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000
FXUS61 KBOX 182052
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
452 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK...DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. COLD
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. SOME
FROST MAY FORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE LATE
TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN A BRIEF RETURN TO MILDER TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

THROUGH 00Z...COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
SHOULD PUSH OFF THE S COAST THIS EVENING. NOTING A FEW ISOLD
SHOWERS ON LATEST KBOX 88D RADAR LOOP ACROSS SW NH/N CENTRAL AND
NW MA. APPEAR TO BE NEAR OR JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. NOT SEEING ANY
REPORTS OF RAIN AT ASOS SITES. VERY DRY IN PLACE BOTH AHEAD AND
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WIDE TEMP/DEWPT SPREADS...BUT CAN NOT RULE
OUT A FEW QUICK SPRINKLES INLAND AS THE FRONT PASSES.

NOTING HIGHEST TEMP SO FAR ACROSS THE REGION TODAY OF 76 DEGREES
AT KPVD...THOUGH OTHER NON-ASOS SITES MAY BE A BIT MILDER.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRES BRING PUSH OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE REGION...
THOUGH SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATING CORE OF COLDEST H85  AIR
WILL REMAIN N OF THE REGION. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR FROM N-S
OVERNIGHT...FIRST ACROSS S NH BY AROUND MIDNIGHT OR 1 AM. SOME
CLOUDS MAY LINGER ALONG THE S COAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.

NOTING PRES SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT ON THE MODEL WIND FIELDS.
EXPECT N-NE WINDS TO INCREASE QUICKLY EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS THE
WATERS E OF CAPE ANN THEN WORKING DOWN THE COAST. COULD SEE GUSTS
UP TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE E COAST FROM ABOUT BOSTON
SOUTHWARD TO THE CAPE AND ISLANDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. FURTHER
INLAND...WINDS WILL DROP OFF TO LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORMALLY PRONE AREAS NEAR THE CT VALLEY AND CHESHIRE
COUNTY.

WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT THE BEST
CHANCE FOR VERY CHILLY TEMPS ACROSS NORTHERN CHESHIRE AND NW
HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES...AND COULD SEE SOME POCKETS OF FROST. HAVE
ISSUED FROST ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO THE LOWER-MID 30S IN THE FROST ADVISORY
AREA...RANGING TO THE LOWER-MID 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE E COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF LARGE HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE DAY. WILL SEE LEFTOVER GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE E COAST
FRIDAY MORNING THEN...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN...WINDS WILL
DIMINISH. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BUT TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER.
HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 50S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER INLAND
LOCALES TO THE MID 60S IN THE LOWER CT VALLEY.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRES SLOWLY PUSHES OFFSHORE SO...WHILE SKIES
WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR...NOTING THAT THE DEWPTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE
AS LIGHT WINDS SHIFT TO S-SE OVERNIGHT. WILL ALSO START TO SEE
HIGH CLOUDS PUSH INTO WESTERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAY STILL SEE
TEMPS FALL TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORMALLY PRONE COOLER SPOTS...
THOUGH MOST LOCALES WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE DEFINED
BY A DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST USA LATE
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT MOVES
INTO THE MARITIMES TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...THERE
IS DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE 18/12Z GUIDANCE SUITE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AFTER THEN...TIMING DIFFERENCES BECOME MORE
PREVALENT...BUT SHOULD NOT HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A CONSENSUS BLEND TO MINIMIZE
THESE DETAIL DIFFERENCES.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC NEAR NOVA SCOTIA
CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA. THIS LEAVES SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND IN A PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER RIDGE AXIS WITH TIME. DRY
WEATHER THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS QUITE DRY.
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH
ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...
THIS PERIOD IS STARTING TO LOOK LIKE A RACE BETWEEN A WEAK
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH AND A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST.
THIS FRONT IS INCREASINGLY LOOKING MOISTURE-STARVED AS IT CROSSES
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE 18/12Z GFS APPEARS TO BE A WESTERN AND
FASTER OUTLIER...WHEN COMPARED TO THE OTHER GUIDANCE
SOURCES...WITH ITS HANDLING OF THIS COASTAL LOW PRESSURE. WHILE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE A POTENT STORM...IT COULD SUPPLY THE MOISTURE
THIS PASSING FRONT WOULD NEED TO PRODUCE MORE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. THERE ARE MANY AREAS ACROSS CT...RI AND SOUTHEAST MA
WHICH COULD REALLY USE SOME RAINFALL.

AT THIS TIME...WILL ONLY MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH RAINFALL
TOTALS LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH. THERE HAS BEEN A RECENT TREND IN
THE GUIDANCE OF BEING TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. WILL
WAIT UNTIL THE TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THIS FRONT AND COASTAL LOW CAN
BE IRONED OUT. THINKING IT MOST LIKELY THIS COASTAL LOW PASSES BY
TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
SUNDAY...BEFORE RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES BY MONDAY
MORNING.

TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO OUR REGION...PROVIDING PROLONGED
DRY WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 00Z...VFR. WILL SEE SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 4500-6000 FT THROUGH
00Z MAINLY FROM THE MASS PIKE NORTHWARD...THOUGH WILL PUSH S
TOWARD SUNSET /AROUND 23Z/ AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS.
LOCAL SEA BREEZES ALONG THE E COAST WILL BECOME NE BY 22Z-23Z. MAY
SEE BRIEF LOCAL SPRINKLES AS FRONT PASSES MAINLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. NOT EXPECTING WET RUNWAYS.

TONIGHT...VFR. CLEARING SKIES FROM N-S AS FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE.
N-NE WINDS MAY GUST TO 20-25 KT ALONG E COAST FROM BOSTON S TO
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH EARLY FRI
NIGHT...THEN HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. NE WINDS
GUSTING TO 20 KT EARLY FRI ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS THEN
DIMINISHING. E WINDS 10 KT OR LESS LATE FRI...SHIFTING TO S-SE FRI
NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE THROUGH 22Z-23Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS AT TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS. WINDS
MAINLY S-SW...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY MOVE THROUGH WITH THIS FRONT.
OTHERWISE...IMPROVING BACK TO VFR BY LATE DAY MONDAY.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 00Z...COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS BY THIS EVENING.
EXPECT NW WINDS TO SHIFT TO N-NE. LONG GROUND SWELLS OF 3 TO 4 FT
CONTINUE FROM DISTANT HURRICANE EDOUARD. MAY SEE BRIEF SWELLS TO 5
FT ON THE OUTER WATERS S AND E OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET WHICH
SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

TONIGHT...WILL SEE PRESSURE SURGE WORKING DOWN FROM THE N ACROSS
THE WATERS AS COLDER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE MILDER WATERS. EXPECT N-NE
WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE RAISED SMALL
CRAFT FOR RI SOUND.

FRIDAY...NE WINDS REMAIN GUSTY FRI MORNING...THEN DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS N OF THE WATERS. SEAS BUILD UP TO 6-7 FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS. SMALL CRAFTS CONTINUE...THOUGH CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
ON THE NEAR SHORE SOUNDS AND BAYS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT...LIGHT E WINDS IN PLACE. LEFTOVER SEAS ON THE OUTER
WATERS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTH WITH DAYTIME GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS NEARSHORE. SEAS WILL REMAIN 2-4 FEET. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
LATE SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY. WEST
WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER AND EXPOSED WATERS...AS A SOUTH SWELL
INCREASES TO 3-5 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

TUESDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS EXPECTED AS A HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WATERS. SEAS WILL TAKE LONGEST TO
DIMINISH ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NHZ011-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 182052
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
452 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK...DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. COLD
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. SOME
FROST MAY FORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE LATE
TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN A BRIEF RETURN TO MILDER TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

THROUGH 00Z...COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
SHOULD PUSH OFF THE S COAST THIS EVENING. NOTING A FEW ISOLD
SHOWERS ON LATEST KBOX 88D RADAR LOOP ACROSS SW NH/N CENTRAL AND
NW MA. APPEAR TO BE NEAR OR JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. NOT SEEING ANY
REPORTS OF RAIN AT ASOS SITES. VERY DRY IN PLACE BOTH AHEAD AND
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WIDE TEMP/DEWPT SPREADS...BUT CAN NOT RULE
OUT A FEW QUICK SPRINKLES INLAND AS THE FRONT PASSES.

NOTING HIGHEST TEMP SO FAR ACROSS THE REGION TODAY OF 76 DEGREES
AT KPVD...THOUGH OTHER NON-ASOS SITES MAY BE A BIT MILDER.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRES BRING PUSH OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE REGION...
THOUGH SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATING CORE OF COLDEST H85  AIR
WILL REMAIN N OF THE REGION. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR FROM N-S
OVERNIGHT...FIRST ACROSS S NH BY AROUND MIDNIGHT OR 1 AM. SOME
CLOUDS MAY LINGER ALONG THE S COAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.

NOTING PRES SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT ON THE MODEL WIND FIELDS.
EXPECT N-NE WINDS TO INCREASE QUICKLY EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS THE
WATERS E OF CAPE ANN THEN WORKING DOWN THE COAST. COULD SEE GUSTS
UP TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE E COAST FROM ABOUT BOSTON
SOUTHWARD TO THE CAPE AND ISLANDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. FURTHER
INLAND...WINDS WILL DROP OFF TO LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORMALLY PRONE AREAS NEAR THE CT VALLEY AND CHESHIRE
COUNTY.

WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT THE BEST
CHANCE FOR VERY CHILLY TEMPS ACROSS NORTHERN CHESHIRE AND NW
HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES...AND COULD SEE SOME POCKETS OF FROST. HAVE
ISSUED FROST ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO THE LOWER-MID 30S IN THE FROST ADVISORY
AREA...RANGING TO THE LOWER-MID 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE E COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF LARGE HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE DAY. WILL SEE LEFTOVER GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE E COAST
FRIDAY MORNING THEN...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN...WINDS WILL
DIMINISH. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BUT TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER.
HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 50S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER INLAND
LOCALES TO THE MID 60S IN THE LOWER CT VALLEY.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRES SLOWLY PUSHES OFFSHORE SO...WHILE SKIES
WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR...NOTING THAT THE DEWPTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE
AS LIGHT WINDS SHIFT TO S-SE OVERNIGHT. WILL ALSO START TO SEE
HIGH CLOUDS PUSH INTO WESTERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAY STILL SEE
TEMPS FALL TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORMALLY PRONE COOLER SPOTS...
THOUGH MOST LOCALES WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE DEFINED
BY A DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST USA LATE
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT MOVES
INTO THE MARITIMES TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...THERE
IS DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE 18/12Z GUIDANCE SUITE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AFTER THEN...TIMING DIFFERENCES BECOME MORE
PREVALENT...BUT SHOULD NOT HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A CONSENSUS BLEND TO MINIMIZE
THESE DETAIL DIFFERENCES.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC NEAR NOVA SCOTIA
CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA. THIS LEAVES SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND IN A PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER RIDGE AXIS WITH TIME. DRY
WEATHER THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS QUITE DRY.
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SATURDAY...WITH
ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...
THIS PERIOD IS STARTING TO LOOK LIKE A RACE BETWEEN A WEAK
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH AND A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST.
THIS FRONT IS INCREASINGLY LOOKING MOISTURE-STARVED AS IT CROSSES
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE 18/12Z GFS APPEARS TO BE A WESTERN AND
FASTER OUTLIER...WHEN COMPARED TO THE OTHER GUIDANCE
SOURCES...WITH ITS HANDLING OF THIS COASTAL LOW PRESSURE. WHILE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE A POTENT STORM...IT COULD SUPPLY THE MOISTURE
THIS PASSING FRONT WOULD NEED TO PRODUCE MORE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. THERE ARE MANY AREAS ACROSS CT...RI AND SOUTHEAST MA
WHICH COULD REALLY USE SOME RAINFALL.

AT THIS TIME...WILL ONLY MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH RAINFALL
TOTALS LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH. THERE HAS BEEN A RECENT TREND IN
THE GUIDANCE OF BEING TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. WILL
WAIT UNTIL THE TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THIS FRONT AND COASTAL LOW CAN
BE IRONED OUT. THINKING IT MOST LIKELY THIS COASTAL LOW PASSES BY
TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
SUNDAY...BEFORE RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES BY MONDAY
MORNING.

TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO OUR REGION...PROVIDING PROLONGED
DRY WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 00Z...VFR. WILL SEE SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 4500-6000 FT THROUGH
00Z MAINLY FROM THE MASS PIKE NORTHWARD...THOUGH WILL PUSH S
TOWARD SUNSET /AROUND 23Z/ AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS.
LOCAL SEA BREEZES ALONG THE E COAST WILL BECOME NE BY 22Z-23Z. MAY
SEE BRIEF LOCAL SPRINKLES AS FRONT PASSES MAINLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. NOT EXPECTING WET RUNWAYS.

TONIGHT...VFR. CLEARING SKIES FROM N-S AS FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE.
N-NE WINDS MAY GUST TO 20-25 KT ALONG E COAST FROM BOSTON S TO
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH EARLY FRI
NIGHT...THEN HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. NE WINDS
GUSTING TO 20 KT EARLY FRI ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS THEN
DIMINISHING. E WINDS 10 KT OR LESS LATE FRI...SHIFTING TO S-SE FRI
NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE THROUGH 22Z-23Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS AT TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS. WINDS
MAINLY S-SW...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY MOVE THROUGH WITH THIS FRONT.
OTHERWISE...IMPROVING BACK TO VFR BY LATE DAY MONDAY.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 00Z...COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS BY THIS EVENING.
EXPECT NW WINDS TO SHIFT TO N-NE. LONG GROUND SWELLS OF 3 TO 4 FT
CONTINUE FROM DISTANT HURRICANE EDOUARD. MAY SEE BRIEF SWELLS TO 5
FT ON THE OUTER WATERS S AND E OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET WHICH
SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

TONIGHT...WILL SEE PRESSURE SURGE WORKING DOWN FROM THE N ACROSS
THE WATERS AS COLDER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE MILDER WATERS. EXPECT N-NE
WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE RAISED SMALL
CRAFT FOR RI SOUND.

FRIDAY...NE WINDS REMAIN GUSTY FRI MORNING...THEN DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS N OF THE WATERS. SEAS BUILD UP TO 6-7 FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS. SMALL CRAFTS CONTINUE...THOUGH CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
ON THE NEAR SHORE SOUNDS AND BAYS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT...LIGHT E WINDS IN PLACE. LEFTOVER SEAS ON THE OUTER
WATERS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTH WITH DAYTIME GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS NEARSHORE. SEAS WILL REMAIN 2-4 FEET. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
LATE SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY. WEST
WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER AND EXPOSED WATERS...AS A SOUTH SWELL
INCREASES TO 3-5 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

TUESDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS EXPECTED AS A HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WATERS. SEAS WILL TAKE LONGEST TO
DIMINISH ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NHZ011-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 181837
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
237 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...BUT MOISTURE IS
LIMITED SO IT WILL COME THROUGH DRY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING A TOUCH OF
FROST TO THE INTERIOR. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND RESULTING IN A WARMUP. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
210 PM UPDATE...
DRY COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVE S OUT OF N NEW ENGLAND AT MIDDAY...
CROSSING INTO N MA AT 18Z. NOTING A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY FROM NEAR KALB TO KGFL WHICH ARE TENDING TO
DRY OUT AS THEY SHIFT E TOWARD THE WESTERN VT/MA BORDER OVER THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS SEEN ON LATEST NE REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR
LOOP. A BLEND OF DIURNAL AND FRONTAL CLOUDS HAVE MOVED IN AND
DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY.
LOOKING AT VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS...APPEARS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
OF THE FRONTAL CLOUDS ARE TENDING TO BREAK APART AS THEY SHIFT S
WHILE THE DIURNAL CLOUDS HAVE TAKEN OVER. MORE CLOUDS WILL WORK S
BEHIND THE FRONT. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO S NH/N MA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING.

TEMPS HAVE RISEN TO THE MID 60S WELL INLAND TO LOWER-MID 70S
ACROSS S RI/SE MA AS WITH LIGHT NW WINDS...WHICH ARE TENDING TO
SHIFT TO A LIGHT SEA BREEZE ALONG THE E COAST GENERALLY FROM
BOSTON SOUTHWARD.

HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS AND INCORPORATED INTO
THE REMAINDER OF THE NEAR TERM FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE THIS EVENING FROM N TO S AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASES BEHIND
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL SET STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT AS
LOWS DROP BACK INTO 30S AND 40S...WITH TOUCH OF FROST POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF NW MA AND SW NH. PER COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES THERE ARE A FEW CONCERNS WHICH MAY LIMIT
WIDESPREAD FROST...INCLUDING HOW FAST CLEARING OCCURS AND DO WINDS
DROP OFF ENOUGH TO ALLOW FROST FORMATION. GIVEN THESE CONCERNS WE
WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ADVISORIES AND ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO GET A
BETTER LOOK.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FRI. ONSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH
COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE SHOULD KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS IN 50S ALONG
IMMEDIATE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
LONG RANGE IS LIKELY TO BE DEFINED BY UPPER LVL LONGWAVE TROF AND
ASSOCIATED CUTOFF LOW PRES EXTENDING OUT OVER HUDSON BAY AND
BAFFIN ISLAND. INITIALLY...THIS TROF IS SHUNTED TO THE N OF NEW
ENGLAND...AS MID LVL RIDGE MOVES TO THE E...YIELDING ZONAL FLOW.
THIS IS THE WEEKEND TIMEFRAME...AND THE RISING HEIGHTS AND MODEST
SW LOW LVL FLOW WILL LEAD TO MODERATE WARMING THROUGH SAT AND SUN.
HOWEVER...STRONG COLD SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH CP AIRMASS NEAR
ALASKA...WILL ONCE AGAIN DIG AND DEEPEN THE TROF ACROSS THE E
EARLY  MID NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER TEMPS
ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THE MOST PART...THESE SYNOPTIC SCALE
FEATURES ARE REASONABLY WELL AGREED UPON...AND THE 18.00Z GFS IS
NOW MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE EARLY WEEK WAVE. THEREFORE...FEEL A BLEND OF
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS A GOOD STARTING POINT.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...

HIGH PRES WILL HOLD FAST ACROSS THE REGION...YIELDING AN INVERTED
RIDGE AS THE CENTER SHIFTS OFFSHORE THANKS TO CONFLUENT ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. FRI NIGHT...WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND NEAR SKC SKIES MAY LEAD
TO ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING IN NW MA AND SW NH VALLEYS FOR FROST
DEVELOPMENT. SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND...MODEST RETURN FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION LEAD
TO INCREASING H85 TEMPS FROM +11C SAT TO +14C SUN.
THEREFORE...HIGHS RANGE IN THE LOW-MID 70S SAT...THEN MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 ON SUN. PWAT VALUES LOOK TOO LOW AT THIS POINT TO
SUPPORT THE LIGHT QPF GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW EACH AFTERNOON...AND
WITH SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE BENEATH THE INVERTED RIDGE...WILL OPT TO
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION AS LOW PRES MOVES
THROUGH SRN ON AND QC. MODEST PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.5 IN...RIGHT
EQUATORWARD REGION OF UPPER LVL JET STREAK AND MODEST LOW LVL
F-GEN ALL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION AS
THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MODELS STARTING TO LINE UP ON
TIMING...MOVING IT THROUGH GENERALLY DURING THE AM HOURS MON. THIS
TIMING WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND SOUNDINGS LOOK
RELATIVELY STABLE...EVEN K VALUES REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW 30.
THEREFORE...SUSPECT MAINLY JUST WIDESPREAD -SHRA ACTIVITY TO MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT LATE DAY
MON. THIS TIMING WILL ALSO KEEP COASTAL LOW PRES OFFSHORE...SO QPF
VALUES SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW A HALF INCH GIVEN CURRENT
THINKING.

TUE INTO THU...

THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW MODERATELY COOL AIRMASS TO BEGIN TO
BUILD IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN FACT...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BY
TUE...546DM THICKNESS VALUES MAY APPROACH THE NW CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND +2C. THEREFORE...UNDER
THE COOL NW FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION...HIGHS TUE MAY STRUGGLE TO
BREAK OUT OF THE 60S...WITH SOME 50S POSSIBLE. GRADUAL MODERATION
IS EXPECTED INTO WED AND THU...BUT WITH TEMPS STILL LEANING
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE HIGH MAY NOT CREST ACROSS THE REGION
UNTIL WED...ONLY MOVING SLIGHTLY E BY THU...SO SUSPECT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 00Z...VFR. WILL SEE SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 4500-6000 FT THROUGH
00Z MAINLY FROM THE MASS PIKE NORTHWARD...THOUGH WILL PUSH S
TOWARD SUNSET /AROUND 23Z/ AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS.
LOCAL SEA BREEZES ALONG THE E COAST WILL BECOME NE BY 22Z-23Z. MAY
SEE BRIEF LOCAL SPRINKLES AS FRONT PASSES MAINLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. NOT EXPECTING WET RUNWAYS.

TONIGHT...VFR. CLEARING SKIES FROM N-S AS FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE.
N-NE WINDS MAY GUST TO 20-25 KT ALONG E COAST FROM BOSTON S TO
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. NE WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT EARLY FRI
ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS THEN DIMINISHING. E WINDS 10 KT
OR LESS LATE FRI...SHIFTING TO S-SE FRI NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE THROUGH 22Z-23Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOME GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE
SAT MORNING AND SUN MORNING AT TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS. WINDS
MAINLY S-SW...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS MON.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY MOVE THROUGH WITH
THIS FRONT. OTHERWISE...IMPROVING BACK TO VFR BY LATE DAY MON.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 00Z...WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT NW WINDS WILL SHIFT TO N-NE. LONG GROUND SWELLS OF 3 TO 4
FT CONTINUE FROM DISTANT HURRICANE EDOUARD. MAY SEE BRIEF SWELLS
TO 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS S AND E OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET
WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

TONIGHT...WILL SEE PRESSURE SURGE WORKING DOWN FROM THE N ACROSS
THE WATERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND
25 KT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS. SMALL CRAFT REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT BOSTON HARBOR...NARRAGANSETT BAY AND
BLOCK ISLAND SOUND.

FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
CENTERED OVER GULF OF MAINE...BUT WILL MAINTAIN SCA FOR OUTER
WATERS WHERE SEAS WILL TAKE TIME TO DROP BELOW 5 FT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...WINDS SWING AROUND TO SOUTHWEST WITH DAYTIME
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS...POSSIBLY NEAR 25 KNOTS SUNDAY. SEAS WILL
REMAIN 2-4 FEET. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY. WEST
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS.  SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER AND EXPOSED WATERS...AS A SOUTH SWELL
INCREASES TO 3-5 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ231>235-251-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/JWD
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...DOODY/EVT
MARINE...DOODY/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 181837
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
237 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...BUT MOISTURE IS
LIMITED SO IT WILL COME THROUGH DRY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING A TOUCH OF
FROST TO THE INTERIOR. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND RESULTING IN A WARMUP. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
210 PM UPDATE...
DRY COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVE S OUT OF N NEW ENGLAND AT MIDDAY...
CROSSING INTO N MA AT 18Z. NOTING A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY FROM NEAR KALB TO KGFL WHICH ARE TENDING TO
DRY OUT AS THEY SHIFT E TOWARD THE WESTERN VT/MA BORDER OVER THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS SEEN ON LATEST NE REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR
LOOP. A BLEND OF DIURNAL AND FRONTAL CLOUDS HAVE MOVED IN AND
DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY.
LOOKING AT VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS...APPEARS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
OF THE FRONTAL CLOUDS ARE TENDING TO BREAK APART AS THEY SHIFT S
WHILE THE DIURNAL CLOUDS HAVE TAKEN OVER. MORE CLOUDS WILL WORK S
BEHIND THE FRONT. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO S NH/N MA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING.

TEMPS HAVE RISEN TO THE MID 60S WELL INLAND TO LOWER-MID 70S
ACROSS S RI/SE MA AS WITH LIGHT NW WINDS...WHICH ARE TENDING TO
SHIFT TO A LIGHT SEA BREEZE ALONG THE E COAST GENERALLY FROM
BOSTON SOUTHWARD.

HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS AND INCORPORATED INTO
THE REMAINDER OF THE NEAR TERM FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE THIS EVENING FROM N TO S AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASES BEHIND
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL SET STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT AS
LOWS DROP BACK INTO 30S AND 40S...WITH TOUCH OF FROST POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF NW MA AND SW NH. PER COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES THERE ARE A FEW CONCERNS WHICH MAY LIMIT
WIDESPREAD FROST...INCLUDING HOW FAST CLEARING OCCURS AND DO WINDS
DROP OFF ENOUGH TO ALLOW FROST FORMATION. GIVEN THESE CONCERNS WE
WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ADVISORIES AND ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO GET A
BETTER LOOK.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FRI. ONSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH
COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE SHOULD KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS IN 50S ALONG
IMMEDIATE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
LONG RANGE IS LIKELY TO BE DEFINED BY UPPER LVL LONGWAVE TROF AND
ASSOCIATED CUTOFF LOW PRES EXTENDING OUT OVER HUDSON BAY AND
BAFFIN ISLAND. INITIALLY...THIS TROF IS SHUNTED TO THE N OF NEW
ENGLAND...AS MID LVL RIDGE MOVES TO THE E...YIELDING ZONAL FLOW.
THIS IS THE WEEKEND TIMEFRAME...AND THE RISING HEIGHTS AND MODEST
SW LOW LVL FLOW WILL LEAD TO MODERATE WARMING THROUGH SAT AND SUN.
HOWEVER...STRONG COLD SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH CP AIRMASS NEAR
ALASKA...WILL ONCE AGAIN DIG AND DEEPEN THE TROF ACROSS THE E
EARLY  MID NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER TEMPS
ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THE MOST PART...THESE SYNOPTIC SCALE
FEATURES ARE REASONABLY WELL AGREED UPON...AND THE 18.00Z GFS IS
NOW MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE EARLY WEEK WAVE. THEREFORE...FEEL A BLEND OF
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS A GOOD STARTING POINT.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...

HIGH PRES WILL HOLD FAST ACROSS THE REGION...YIELDING AN INVERTED
RIDGE AS THE CENTER SHIFTS OFFSHORE THANKS TO CONFLUENT ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. FRI NIGHT...WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND NEAR SKC SKIES MAY LEAD
TO ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING IN NW MA AND SW NH VALLEYS FOR FROST
DEVELOPMENT. SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND...MODEST RETURN FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION LEAD
TO INCREASING H85 TEMPS FROM +11C SAT TO +14C SUN.
THEREFORE...HIGHS RANGE IN THE LOW-MID 70S SAT...THEN MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 ON SUN. PWAT VALUES LOOK TOO LOW AT THIS POINT TO
SUPPORT THE LIGHT QPF GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW EACH AFTERNOON...AND
WITH SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE BENEATH THE INVERTED RIDGE...WILL OPT TO
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION AS LOW PRES MOVES
THROUGH SRN ON AND QC. MODEST PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.5 IN...RIGHT
EQUATORWARD REGION OF UPPER LVL JET STREAK AND MODEST LOW LVL
F-GEN ALL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION AS
THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MODELS STARTING TO LINE UP ON
TIMING...MOVING IT THROUGH GENERALLY DURING THE AM HOURS MON. THIS
TIMING WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND SOUNDINGS LOOK
RELATIVELY STABLE...EVEN K VALUES REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW 30.
THEREFORE...SUSPECT MAINLY JUST WIDESPREAD -SHRA ACTIVITY TO MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT LATE DAY
MON. THIS TIMING WILL ALSO KEEP COASTAL LOW PRES OFFSHORE...SO QPF
VALUES SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW A HALF INCH GIVEN CURRENT
THINKING.

TUE INTO THU...

THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW MODERATELY COOL AIRMASS TO BEGIN TO
BUILD IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN FACT...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BY
TUE...546DM THICKNESS VALUES MAY APPROACH THE NW CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND +2C. THEREFORE...UNDER
THE COOL NW FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION...HIGHS TUE MAY STRUGGLE TO
BREAK OUT OF THE 60S...WITH SOME 50S POSSIBLE. GRADUAL MODERATION
IS EXPECTED INTO WED AND THU...BUT WITH TEMPS STILL LEANING
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE HIGH MAY NOT CREST ACROSS THE REGION
UNTIL WED...ONLY MOVING SLIGHTLY E BY THU...SO SUSPECT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 00Z...VFR. WILL SEE SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 4500-6000 FT THROUGH
00Z MAINLY FROM THE MASS PIKE NORTHWARD...THOUGH WILL PUSH S
TOWARD SUNSET /AROUND 23Z/ AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS.
LOCAL SEA BREEZES ALONG THE E COAST WILL BECOME NE BY 22Z-23Z. MAY
SEE BRIEF LOCAL SPRINKLES AS FRONT PASSES MAINLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. NOT EXPECTING WET RUNWAYS.

TONIGHT...VFR. CLEARING SKIES FROM N-S AS FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE.
N-NE WINDS MAY GUST TO 20-25 KT ALONG E COAST FROM BOSTON S TO
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. NE WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT EARLY FRI
ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS THEN DIMINISHING. E WINDS 10 KT
OR LESS LATE FRI...SHIFTING TO S-SE FRI NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE THROUGH 22Z-23Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOME GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE
SAT MORNING AND SUN MORNING AT TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS. WINDS
MAINLY S-SW...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS MON.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY MOVE THROUGH WITH
THIS FRONT. OTHERWISE...IMPROVING BACK TO VFR BY LATE DAY MON.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 00Z...WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT NW WINDS WILL SHIFT TO N-NE. LONG GROUND SWELLS OF 3 TO 4
FT CONTINUE FROM DISTANT HURRICANE EDOUARD. MAY SEE BRIEF SWELLS
TO 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS S AND E OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET
WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

TONIGHT...WILL SEE PRESSURE SURGE WORKING DOWN FROM THE N ACROSS
THE WATERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND
25 KT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS. SMALL CRAFT REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT BOSTON HARBOR...NARRAGANSETT BAY AND
BLOCK ISLAND SOUND.

FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
CENTERED OVER GULF OF MAINE...BUT WILL MAINTAIN SCA FOR OUTER
WATERS WHERE SEAS WILL TAKE TIME TO DROP BELOW 5 FT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...WINDS SWING AROUND TO SOUTHWEST WITH DAYTIME
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS...POSSIBLY NEAR 25 KNOTS SUNDAY. SEAS WILL
REMAIN 2-4 FEET. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY. WEST
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS.  SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER AND EXPOSED WATERS...AS A SOUTH SWELL
INCREASES TO 3-5 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ231>235-251-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/JWD
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...DOODY/EVT
MARINE...DOODY/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 181837
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
237 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...BUT MOISTURE IS
LIMITED SO IT WILL COME THROUGH DRY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING A TOUCH OF
FROST TO THE INTERIOR. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND RESULTING IN A WARMUP. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
210 PM UPDATE...
DRY COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVE S OUT OF N NEW ENGLAND AT MIDDAY...
CROSSING INTO N MA AT 18Z. NOTING A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY FROM NEAR KALB TO KGFL WHICH ARE TENDING TO
DRY OUT AS THEY SHIFT E TOWARD THE WESTERN VT/MA BORDER OVER THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS SEEN ON LATEST NE REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR
LOOP. A BLEND OF DIURNAL AND FRONTAL CLOUDS HAVE MOVED IN AND
DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY.
LOOKING AT VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS...APPEARS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
OF THE FRONTAL CLOUDS ARE TENDING TO BREAK APART AS THEY SHIFT S
WHILE THE DIURNAL CLOUDS HAVE TAKEN OVER. MORE CLOUDS WILL WORK S
BEHIND THE FRONT. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO S NH/N MA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING.

TEMPS HAVE RISEN TO THE MID 60S WELL INLAND TO LOWER-MID 70S
ACROSS S RI/SE MA AS WITH LIGHT NW WINDS...WHICH ARE TENDING TO
SHIFT TO A LIGHT SEA BREEZE ALONG THE E COAST GENERALLY FROM
BOSTON SOUTHWARD.

HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS AND INCORPORATED INTO
THE REMAINDER OF THE NEAR TERM FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE THIS EVENING FROM N TO S AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASES BEHIND
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL SET STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT AS
LOWS DROP BACK INTO 30S AND 40S...WITH TOUCH OF FROST POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF NW MA AND SW NH. PER COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES THERE ARE A FEW CONCERNS WHICH MAY LIMIT
WIDESPREAD FROST...INCLUDING HOW FAST CLEARING OCCURS AND DO WINDS
DROP OFF ENOUGH TO ALLOW FROST FORMATION. GIVEN THESE CONCERNS WE
WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ADVISORIES AND ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO GET A
BETTER LOOK.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FRI. ONSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH
COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE SHOULD KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS IN 50S ALONG
IMMEDIATE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
LONG RANGE IS LIKELY TO BE DEFINED BY UPPER LVL LONGWAVE TROF AND
ASSOCIATED CUTOFF LOW PRES EXTENDING OUT OVER HUDSON BAY AND
BAFFIN ISLAND. INITIALLY...THIS TROF IS SHUNTED TO THE N OF NEW
ENGLAND...AS MID LVL RIDGE MOVES TO THE E...YIELDING ZONAL FLOW.
THIS IS THE WEEKEND TIMEFRAME...AND THE RISING HEIGHTS AND MODEST
SW LOW LVL FLOW WILL LEAD TO MODERATE WARMING THROUGH SAT AND SUN.
HOWEVER...STRONG COLD SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH CP AIRMASS NEAR
ALASKA...WILL ONCE AGAIN DIG AND DEEPEN THE TROF ACROSS THE E
EARLY  MID NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER TEMPS
ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THE MOST PART...THESE SYNOPTIC SCALE
FEATURES ARE REASONABLY WELL AGREED UPON...AND THE 18.00Z GFS IS
NOW MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE EARLY WEEK WAVE. THEREFORE...FEEL A BLEND OF
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS A GOOD STARTING POINT.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...

HIGH PRES WILL HOLD FAST ACROSS THE REGION...YIELDING AN INVERTED
RIDGE AS THE CENTER SHIFTS OFFSHORE THANKS TO CONFLUENT ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. FRI NIGHT...WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND NEAR SKC SKIES MAY LEAD
TO ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING IN NW MA AND SW NH VALLEYS FOR FROST
DEVELOPMENT. SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND...MODEST RETURN FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION LEAD
TO INCREASING H85 TEMPS FROM +11C SAT TO +14C SUN.
THEREFORE...HIGHS RANGE IN THE LOW-MID 70S SAT...THEN MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 ON SUN. PWAT VALUES LOOK TOO LOW AT THIS POINT TO
SUPPORT THE LIGHT QPF GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW EACH AFTERNOON...AND
WITH SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE BENEATH THE INVERTED RIDGE...WILL OPT TO
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION AS LOW PRES MOVES
THROUGH SRN ON AND QC. MODEST PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.5 IN...RIGHT
EQUATORWARD REGION OF UPPER LVL JET STREAK AND MODEST LOW LVL
F-GEN ALL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION AS
THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MODELS STARTING TO LINE UP ON
TIMING...MOVING IT THROUGH GENERALLY DURING THE AM HOURS MON. THIS
TIMING WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND SOUNDINGS LOOK
RELATIVELY STABLE...EVEN K VALUES REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW 30.
THEREFORE...SUSPECT MAINLY JUST WIDESPREAD -SHRA ACTIVITY TO MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT LATE DAY
MON. THIS TIMING WILL ALSO KEEP COASTAL LOW PRES OFFSHORE...SO QPF
VALUES SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW A HALF INCH GIVEN CURRENT
THINKING.

TUE INTO THU...

THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW MODERATELY COOL AIRMASS TO BEGIN TO
BUILD IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN FACT...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BY
TUE...546DM THICKNESS VALUES MAY APPROACH THE NW CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND +2C. THEREFORE...UNDER
THE COOL NW FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION...HIGHS TUE MAY STRUGGLE TO
BREAK OUT OF THE 60S...WITH SOME 50S POSSIBLE. GRADUAL MODERATION
IS EXPECTED INTO WED AND THU...BUT WITH TEMPS STILL LEANING
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE HIGH MAY NOT CREST ACROSS THE REGION
UNTIL WED...ONLY MOVING SLIGHTLY E BY THU...SO SUSPECT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 00Z...VFR. WILL SEE SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 4500-6000 FT THROUGH
00Z MAINLY FROM THE MASS PIKE NORTHWARD...THOUGH WILL PUSH S
TOWARD SUNSET /AROUND 23Z/ AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS.
LOCAL SEA BREEZES ALONG THE E COAST WILL BECOME NE BY 22Z-23Z. MAY
SEE BRIEF LOCAL SPRINKLES AS FRONT PASSES MAINLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. NOT EXPECTING WET RUNWAYS.

TONIGHT...VFR. CLEARING SKIES FROM N-S AS FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE.
N-NE WINDS MAY GUST TO 20-25 KT ALONG E COAST FROM BOSTON S TO
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. NE WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT EARLY FRI
ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS THEN DIMINISHING. E WINDS 10 KT
OR LESS LATE FRI...SHIFTING TO S-SE FRI NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE THROUGH 22Z-23Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOME GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE
SAT MORNING AND SUN MORNING AT TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS. WINDS
MAINLY S-SW...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS MON.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY MOVE THROUGH WITH
THIS FRONT. OTHERWISE...IMPROVING BACK TO VFR BY LATE DAY MON.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 00Z...WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT NW WINDS WILL SHIFT TO N-NE. LONG GROUND SWELLS OF 3 TO 4
FT CONTINUE FROM DISTANT HURRICANE EDOUARD. MAY SEE BRIEF SWELLS
TO 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS S AND E OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET
WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

TONIGHT...WILL SEE PRESSURE SURGE WORKING DOWN FROM THE N ACROSS
THE WATERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND
25 KT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS. SMALL CRAFT REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT BOSTON HARBOR...NARRAGANSETT BAY AND
BLOCK ISLAND SOUND.

FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
CENTERED OVER GULF OF MAINE...BUT WILL MAINTAIN SCA FOR OUTER
WATERS WHERE SEAS WILL TAKE TIME TO DROP BELOW 5 FT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...WINDS SWING AROUND TO SOUTHWEST WITH DAYTIME
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS...POSSIBLY NEAR 25 KNOTS SUNDAY. SEAS WILL
REMAIN 2-4 FEET. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY. WEST
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS.  SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER AND EXPOSED WATERS...AS A SOUTH SWELL
INCREASES TO 3-5 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ231>235-251-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/JWD
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...DOODY/EVT
MARINE...DOODY/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 181837
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
237 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...BUT MOISTURE IS
LIMITED SO IT WILL COME THROUGH DRY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING A TOUCH OF
FROST TO THE INTERIOR. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND RESULTING IN A WARMUP. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
210 PM UPDATE...
DRY COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVE S OUT OF N NEW ENGLAND AT MIDDAY...
CROSSING INTO N MA AT 18Z. NOTING A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY FROM NEAR KALB TO KGFL WHICH ARE TENDING TO
DRY OUT AS THEY SHIFT E TOWARD THE WESTERN VT/MA BORDER OVER THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS SEEN ON LATEST NE REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR
LOOP. A BLEND OF DIURNAL AND FRONTAL CLOUDS HAVE MOVED IN AND
DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY.
LOOKING AT VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS...APPEARS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
OF THE FRONTAL CLOUDS ARE TENDING TO BREAK APART AS THEY SHIFT S
WHILE THE DIURNAL CLOUDS HAVE TAKEN OVER. MORE CLOUDS WILL WORK S
BEHIND THE FRONT. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO S NH/N MA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING.

TEMPS HAVE RISEN TO THE MID 60S WELL INLAND TO LOWER-MID 70S
ACROSS S RI/SE MA AS WITH LIGHT NW WINDS...WHICH ARE TENDING TO
SHIFT TO A LIGHT SEA BREEZE ALONG THE E COAST GENERALLY FROM
BOSTON SOUTHWARD.

HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS AND INCORPORATED INTO
THE REMAINDER OF THE NEAR TERM FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE THIS EVENING FROM N TO S AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASES BEHIND
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL SET STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT AS
LOWS DROP BACK INTO 30S AND 40S...WITH TOUCH OF FROST POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF NW MA AND SW NH. PER COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES THERE ARE A FEW CONCERNS WHICH MAY LIMIT
WIDESPREAD FROST...INCLUDING HOW FAST CLEARING OCCURS AND DO WINDS
DROP OFF ENOUGH TO ALLOW FROST FORMATION. GIVEN THESE CONCERNS WE
WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ADVISORIES AND ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO GET A
BETTER LOOK.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FRI. ONSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH
COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE SHOULD KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS IN 50S ALONG
IMMEDIATE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
LONG RANGE IS LIKELY TO BE DEFINED BY UPPER LVL LONGWAVE TROF AND
ASSOCIATED CUTOFF LOW PRES EXTENDING OUT OVER HUDSON BAY AND
BAFFIN ISLAND. INITIALLY...THIS TROF IS SHUNTED TO THE N OF NEW
ENGLAND...AS MID LVL RIDGE MOVES TO THE E...YIELDING ZONAL FLOW.
THIS IS THE WEEKEND TIMEFRAME...AND THE RISING HEIGHTS AND MODEST
SW LOW LVL FLOW WILL LEAD TO MODERATE WARMING THROUGH SAT AND SUN.
HOWEVER...STRONG COLD SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH CP AIRMASS NEAR
ALASKA...WILL ONCE AGAIN DIG AND DEEPEN THE TROF ACROSS THE E
EARLY  MID NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER TEMPS
ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THE MOST PART...THESE SYNOPTIC SCALE
FEATURES ARE REASONABLY WELL AGREED UPON...AND THE 18.00Z GFS IS
NOW MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE EARLY WEEK WAVE. THEREFORE...FEEL A BLEND OF
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS A GOOD STARTING POINT.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...

HIGH PRES WILL HOLD FAST ACROSS THE REGION...YIELDING AN INVERTED
RIDGE AS THE CENTER SHIFTS OFFSHORE THANKS TO CONFLUENT ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. FRI NIGHT...WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND NEAR SKC SKIES MAY LEAD
TO ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING IN NW MA AND SW NH VALLEYS FOR FROST
DEVELOPMENT. SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND...MODEST RETURN FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION LEAD
TO INCREASING H85 TEMPS FROM +11C SAT TO +14C SUN.
THEREFORE...HIGHS RANGE IN THE LOW-MID 70S SAT...THEN MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 ON SUN. PWAT VALUES LOOK TOO LOW AT THIS POINT TO
SUPPORT THE LIGHT QPF GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW EACH AFTERNOON...AND
WITH SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE BENEATH THE INVERTED RIDGE...WILL OPT TO
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION AS LOW PRES MOVES
THROUGH SRN ON AND QC. MODEST PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.5 IN...RIGHT
EQUATORWARD REGION OF UPPER LVL JET STREAK AND MODEST LOW LVL
F-GEN ALL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION AS
THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MODELS STARTING TO LINE UP ON
TIMING...MOVING IT THROUGH GENERALLY DURING THE AM HOURS MON. THIS
TIMING WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND SOUNDINGS LOOK
RELATIVELY STABLE...EVEN K VALUES REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW 30.
THEREFORE...SUSPECT MAINLY JUST WIDESPREAD -SHRA ACTIVITY TO MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT LATE DAY
MON. THIS TIMING WILL ALSO KEEP COASTAL LOW PRES OFFSHORE...SO QPF
VALUES SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW A HALF INCH GIVEN CURRENT
THINKING.

TUE INTO THU...

THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW MODERATELY COOL AIRMASS TO BEGIN TO
BUILD IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN FACT...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BY
TUE...546DM THICKNESS VALUES MAY APPROACH THE NW CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND +2C. THEREFORE...UNDER
THE COOL NW FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION...HIGHS TUE MAY STRUGGLE TO
BREAK OUT OF THE 60S...WITH SOME 50S POSSIBLE. GRADUAL MODERATION
IS EXPECTED INTO WED AND THU...BUT WITH TEMPS STILL LEANING
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE HIGH MAY NOT CREST ACROSS THE REGION
UNTIL WED...ONLY MOVING SLIGHTLY E BY THU...SO SUSPECT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 00Z...VFR. WILL SEE SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 4500-6000 FT THROUGH
00Z MAINLY FROM THE MASS PIKE NORTHWARD...THOUGH WILL PUSH S
TOWARD SUNSET /AROUND 23Z/ AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS.
LOCAL SEA BREEZES ALONG THE E COAST WILL BECOME NE BY 22Z-23Z. MAY
SEE BRIEF LOCAL SPRINKLES AS FRONT PASSES MAINLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. NOT EXPECTING WET RUNWAYS.

TONIGHT...VFR. CLEARING SKIES FROM N-S AS FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE.
N-NE WINDS MAY GUST TO 20-25 KT ALONG E COAST FROM BOSTON S TO
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. NE WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT EARLY FRI
ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS THEN DIMINISHING. E WINDS 10 KT
OR LESS LATE FRI...SHIFTING TO S-SE FRI NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE THROUGH 22Z-23Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOME GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE
SAT MORNING AND SUN MORNING AT TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS. WINDS
MAINLY S-SW...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS MON.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY MOVE THROUGH WITH
THIS FRONT. OTHERWISE...IMPROVING BACK TO VFR BY LATE DAY MON.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 00Z...WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT NW WINDS WILL SHIFT TO N-NE. LONG GROUND SWELLS OF 3 TO 4
FT CONTINUE FROM DISTANT HURRICANE EDOUARD. MAY SEE BRIEF SWELLS
TO 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS S AND E OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET
WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

TONIGHT...WILL SEE PRESSURE SURGE WORKING DOWN FROM THE N ACROSS
THE WATERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND
25 KT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS. SMALL CRAFT REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT BOSTON HARBOR...NARRAGANSETT BAY AND
BLOCK ISLAND SOUND.

FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
CENTERED OVER GULF OF MAINE...BUT WILL MAINTAIN SCA FOR OUTER
WATERS WHERE SEAS WILL TAKE TIME TO DROP BELOW 5 FT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...WINDS SWING AROUND TO SOUTHWEST WITH DAYTIME
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS...POSSIBLY NEAR 25 KNOTS SUNDAY. SEAS WILL
REMAIN 2-4 FEET. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY. WEST
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS.  SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER AND EXPOSED WATERS...AS A SOUTH SWELL
INCREASES TO 3-5 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ231>235-251-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/JWD
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...DOODY/EVT
MARINE...DOODY/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 181837
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
237 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...BUT MOISTURE IS
LIMITED SO IT WILL COME THROUGH DRY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING A TOUCH OF
FROST TO THE INTERIOR. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND RESULTING IN A WARMUP. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
210 PM UPDATE...
DRY COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVE S OUT OF N NEW ENGLAND AT MIDDAY...
CROSSING INTO N MA AT 18Z. NOTING A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY FROM NEAR KALB TO KGFL WHICH ARE TENDING TO
DRY OUT AS THEY SHIFT E TOWARD THE WESTERN VT/MA BORDER OVER THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS SEEN ON LATEST NE REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR
LOOP. A BLEND OF DIURNAL AND FRONTAL CLOUDS HAVE MOVED IN AND
DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY.
LOOKING AT VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS...APPEARS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
OF THE FRONTAL CLOUDS ARE TENDING TO BREAK APART AS THEY SHIFT S
WHILE THE DIURNAL CLOUDS HAVE TAKEN OVER. MORE CLOUDS WILL WORK S
BEHIND THE FRONT. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO S NH/N MA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING.

TEMPS HAVE RISEN TO THE MID 60S WELL INLAND TO LOWER-MID 70S
ACROSS S RI/SE MA AS WITH LIGHT NW WINDS...WHICH ARE TENDING TO
SHIFT TO A LIGHT SEA BREEZE ALONG THE E COAST GENERALLY FROM
BOSTON SOUTHWARD.

HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS AND INCORPORATED INTO
THE REMAINDER OF THE NEAR TERM FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE THIS EVENING FROM N TO S AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASES BEHIND
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL SET STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT AS
LOWS DROP BACK INTO 30S AND 40S...WITH TOUCH OF FROST POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF NW MA AND SW NH. PER COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES THERE ARE A FEW CONCERNS WHICH MAY LIMIT
WIDESPREAD FROST...INCLUDING HOW FAST CLEARING OCCURS AND DO WINDS
DROP OFF ENOUGH TO ALLOW FROST FORMATION. GIVEN THESE CONCERNS WE
WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ADVISORIES AND ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO GET A
BETTER LOOK.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FRI. ONSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH
COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE SHOULD KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS IN 50S ALONG
IMMEDIATE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
LONG RANGE IS LIKELY TO BE DEFINED BY UPPER LVL LONGWAVE TROF AND
ASSOCIATED CUTOFF LOW PRES EXTENDING OUT OVER HUDSON BAY AND
BAFFIN ISLAND. INITIALLY...THIS TROF IS SHUNTED TO THE N OF NEW
ENGLAND...AS MID LVL RIDGE MOVES TO THE E...YIELDING ZONAL FLOW.
THIS IS THE WEEKEND TIMEFRAME...AND THE RISING HEIGHTS AND MODEST
SW LOW LVL FLOW WILL LEAD TO MODERATE WARMING THROUGH SAT AND SUN.
HOWEVER...STRONG COLD SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH CP AIRMASS NEAR
ALASKA...WILL ONCE AGAIN DIG AND DEEPEN THE TROF ACROSS THE E
EARLY  MID NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER TEMPS
ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THE MOST PART...THESE SYNOPTIC SCALE
FEATURES ARE REASONABLY WELL AGREED UPON...AND THE 18.00Z GFS IS
NOW MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE EARLY WEEK WAVE. THEREFORE...FEEL A BLEND OF
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS A GOOD STARTING POINT.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...

HIGH PRES WILL HOLD FAST ACROSS THE REGION...YIELDING AN INVERTED
RIDGE AS THE CENTER SHIFTS OFFSHORE THANKS TO CONFLUENT ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. FRI NIGHT...WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND NEAR SKC SKIES MAY LEAD
TO ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING IN NW MA AND SW NH VALLEYS FOR FROST
DEVELOPMENT. SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND...MODEST RETURN FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION LEAD
TO INCREASING H85 TEMPS FROM +11C SAT TO +14C SUN.
THEREFORE...HIGHS RANGE IN THE LOW-MID 70S SAT...THEN MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 ON SUN. PWAT VALUES LOOK TOO LOW AT THIS POINT TO
SUPPORT THE LIGHT QPF GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW EACH AFTERNOON...AND
WITH SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE BENEATH THE INVERTED RIDGE...WILL OPT TO
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION AS LOW PRES MOVES
THROUGH SRN ON AND QC. MODEST PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.5 IN...RIGHT
EQUATORWARD REGION OF UPPER LVL JET STREAK AND MODEST LOW LVL
F-GEN ALL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION AS
THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MODELS STARTING TO LINE UP ON
TIMING...MOVING IT THROUGH GENERALLY DURING THE AM HOURS MON. THIS
TIMING WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND SOUNDINGS LOOK
RELATIVELY STABLE...EVEN K VALUES REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW 30.
THEREFORE...SUSPECT MAINLY JUST WIDESPREAD -SHRA ACTIVITY TO MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT LATE DAY
MON. THIS TIMING WILL ALSO KEEP COASTAL LOW PRES OFFSHORE...SO QPF
VALUES SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW A HALF INCH GIVEN CURRENT
THINKING.

TUE INTO THU...

THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW MODERATELY COOL AIRMASS TO BEGIN TO
BUILD IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN FACT...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BY
TUE...546DM THICKNESS VALUES MAY APPROACH THE NW CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND +2C. THEREFORE...UNDER
THE COOL NW FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION...HIGHS TUE MAY STRUGGLE TO
BREAK OUT OF THE 60S...WITH SOME 50S POSSIBLE. GRADUAL MODERATION
IS EXPECTED INTO WED AND THU...BUT WITH TEMPS STILL LEANING
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE HIGH MAY NOT CREST ACROSS THE REGION
UNTIL WED...ONLY MOVING SLIGHTLY E BY THU...SO SUSPECT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 00Z...VFR. WILL SEE SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 4500-6000 FT THROUGH
00Z MAINLY FROM THE MASS PIKE NORTHWARD...THOUGH WILL PUSH S
TOWARD SUNSET /AROUND 23Z/ AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS.
LOCAL SEA BREEZES ALONG THE E COAST WILL BECOME NE BY 22Z-23Z. MAY
SEE BRIEF LOCAL SPRINKLES AS FRONT PASSES MAINLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. NOT EXPECTING WET RUNWAYS.

TONIGHT...VFR. CLEARING SKIES FROM N-S AS FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE.
N-NE WINDS MAY GUST TO 20-25 KT ALONG E COAST FROM BOSTON S TO
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. NE WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT EARLY FRI
ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS THEN DIMINISHING. E WINDS 10 KT
OR LESS LATE FRI...SHIFTING TO S-SE FRI NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE THROUGH 22Z-23Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOME GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE
SAT MORNING AND SUN MORNING AT TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS. WINDS
MAINLY S-SW...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS MON.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY MOVE THROUGH WITH
THIS FRONT. OTHERWISE...IMPROVING BACK TO VFR BY LATE DAY MON.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 00Z...WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT NW WINDS WILL SHIFT TO N-NE. LONG GROUND SWELLS OF 3 TO 4
FT CONTINUE FROM DISTANT HURRICANE EDOUARD. MAY SEE BRIEF SWELLS
TO 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS S AND E OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET
WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

TONIGHT...WILL SEE PRESSURE SURGE WORKING DOWN FROM THE N ACROSS
THE WATERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND
25 KT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS. SMALL CRAFT REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT BOSTON HARBOR...NARRAGANSETT BAY AND
BLOCK ISLAND SOUND.

FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
CENTERED OVER GULF OF MAINE...BUT WILL MAINTAIN SCA FOR OUTER
WATERS WHERE SEAS WILL TAKE TIME TO DROP BELOW 5 FT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...WINDS SWING AROUND TO SOUTHWEST WITH DAYTIME
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS...POSSIBLY NEAR 25 KNOTS SUNDAY. SEAS WILL
REMAIN 2-4 FEET. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY. WEST
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS.  SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER AND EXPOSED WATERS...AS A SOUTH SWELL
INCREASES TO 3-5 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ231>235-251-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/JWD
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...DOODY/EVT
MARINE...DOODY/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 181454
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1054 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...BUT MOISTURE IS
LIMITED SO IT WILL COME THROUGH DRY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING A TOUCH OF
FROST TO THE INTERIOR. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND RESULTING IN A WARMUP. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM UPDATE...
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE CT VALLEY INTO NE CT HAD PRETTY MUCH
DISSIPATED BY 10 AM...THOUGH SOME SPOTS ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES
HELD ON TO SOME LOW CLOUDS AS SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE. EXPECT
THOSE TO BURN OFF BY NOON...THOUGH SOME PATCHY MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL PUSH INTO S NH/N MA.

LEADING EDGE OF CLOUDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO CENTRAL VT/NH/ME AT 14Z...BUT MAY TEND TO BREAK APART AS THEY
SHIFT S TOWARD THE REGION DURING THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS TREND. ALSO NOTED THAT THIN BAND OF PRECIP ALONG THE
FRONT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS
PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATED. NOT SEEING ANY ASOS REPORTS OF PRECIP.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST. AS THE COLD FRONT SINKS S.

REMAINING GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CROSS SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH FRONT...SO ONLY
EXPECTING A PERIOD OF CLOUDINESS AS IT MOVES THROUGH ESPECIALLY
DUE TO PASSAGE OF UPPER TROUGH. COULD BE BRIEF SPRINKLE BUT RADAR
TRENDS SUGGEST KEEPING FORECAST DRY.

HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN 60S AND LOWER 70S...WHICH IS BLEND OF MOS
GUIDANCE. NAM MOS SEEMS A BIT TOO WARM WITH HIGHS REACHING MID 70S
NEAR S COAST CONSIDERING EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE THIS EVENING FROM N TO S AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASES BEHIND
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL SET STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT AS
LOWS DROP BACK INTO 30S AND 40S...WITH TOUCH OF FROST POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF NW MA AND SW NH. PER COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES THERE ARE A FEW CONCERNS WHICH MAY LIMIT
WIDESPREAD FROST...INCLUDING HOW FAST CLEARING OCCURS AND DO WINDS
DROP OFF ENOUGH TO ALLOW FROST FORMATION. GIVEN THESE CONCERNS WE
WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ADVISORIES AND ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO GET A
BETTER LOOK.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FRI. ONSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH
COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE SHOULD KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS IN 50S ALONG
IMMEDIATE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
LONG RANGE IS LIKELY TO BE DEFINED BY UPPER LVL LONGWAVE TROF AND
ASSOCIATED CUTOFF LOW PRES EXTENDING OUT OVER HUDSON BAY AND
BAFFIN ISLAND. INITIALLY...THIS TROF IS SHUNTED TO THE N OF NEW
ENGLAND...AS MID LVL RIDGE MOVES TO THE E...YIELDING ZONAL FLOW.
THIS IS THE WEEKEND TIMEFRAME...AND THE RISING HEIGHTS AND MODEST
SW LOW LVL FLOW WILL LEAD TO MODERATE WARMING THROUGH SAT AND SUN.
HOWEVER...STRONG COLD SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH CP AIRMASS NEAR
ALASKA...WILL ONCE AGAIN DIG AND DEEPEN THE TROF ACROSS THE E
EARLY  MID NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER TEMPS
ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THE MOST PART...THESE SYNOPTIC SCALE
FEATURES ARE REASONABLY WELL AGREED UPON...AND THE 18.00Z GFS IS
NOW MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE EARLY WEEK WAVE. THEREFORE...FEEL A BLEND OF
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS A GOOD STARTING POINT.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...

HIGH PRES WILL HOLD FAST ACROSS THE REGION...YIELDING AN INVERTED
RIDGE AS THE CENTER SHIFTS OFFSHORE THANKS TO CONFLUENT ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. FRI NIGHT...WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND NEAR SKC SKIES MAY LEAD
TO ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING IN NW MA AND SW NH VALLEYS FOR FROST
DEVELOPMENT. SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND...MODEST RETURN FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION LEAD
TO INCREASING H85 TEMPS FROM +11C SAT TO +14C SUN.
THEREFORE...HIGHS RANGE IN THE LOW-MID 70S SAT...THEN MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 ON SUN. PWAT VALUES LOOK TOO LOW AT THIS POINT TO
SUPPORT THE LIGHT QPF GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW EACH AFTERNOON...AND
WITH SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE BENEATH THE INVERTED RIDGE...WILL OPT TO
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION AS LOW PRES MOVES
THROUGH SRN ON AND QC. MODEST PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.5 IN...RIGHT
EQUATORWARD REGION OF UPPER LVL JET STREAK AND MODEST LOW LVL
F-GEN ALL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION AS
THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MODELS STARTING TO LINE UP ON
TIMING...MOVING IT THROUGH GENERALLY DURING THE AM HOURS MON. THIS
TIMING WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND SOUNDINGS LOOK
RELATIVELY STABLE...EVEN K VALUES REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW 30.
THEREFORE...SUSPECT MAINLY JUST WIDESPREAD -SHRA ACTIVITY TO MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT LATE DAY
MON. THIS TIMING WILL ALSO KEEP COASTAL LOW PRES OFFSHORE...SO QPF
VALUES SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW A HALF INCH GIVEN CURRENT
THINKING.

TUE INTO THU...

THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW MODERATELY COOL AIRMASS TO BEGIN TO
BUILD IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN FACT...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BY
TUE...546DM THICKNESS VALUES MAY APPROACH THE NW CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND +2C. THEREFORE...UNDER
THE COOL NW FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION...HIGHS TUE MAY STRUGGLE TO
BREAK OUT OF THE 60S...WITH SOME 50S POSSIBLE. GRADUAL MODERATION
IS EXPECTED INTO WED AND THU...BUT WITH TEMPS STILL LEANING
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE HIGH MAY NOT CREST ACROSS THE REGION
UNTIL WED...ONLY MOVING SLIGHTLY E BY THU...SO SUSPECT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR TODAY WITH SCT-BKN AT 4-6KFT DEVELOPING AROUND MIDDAY.
WEAK COLD FRONT BRINGS WIND SHIFT TO N/NE ACROSS MOST OF AREA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF SPRINKLE BUT PROBABLY NOT
MUCH MORE THAN THAT AND NOT ENOUGH TO WET RUNWAYS.

CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT. POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FROST ACROSS VALLEYS
OF NW MA AND SW NH. VFR FRI WITH E/NE FLOW.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF...INCLUDING TIMING OF WIND
SHIFT TODAY. POSSIBLE SEA BREEZE AROUND 18Z-19Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOME GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE
SAT MORNING AND SUN MORNING AT TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS. WINDS
MAINLY S-SW...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS MON.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY MOVE THROUGH WITH
THIS FRONT. OTHERWISE...IMPROVING BACK TO VFR BY LATE DAY MON.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES WATERS AROUND MIDDAY WITH WIND SHIFT TO
N/NE. SWELL FROM OFFSHORE HURRICANE EDOUARD SHOULD BRING 3-4 FT
SEAS TO OUTER WATERS BUT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA.

SHOULD SEE BRIEF SURGE IN N/NE WINDS TONIGHT AS COOLER AIR ARRIVES...
MAINLY FROM MERRIMACK RIVER TO CAPE COD/ISLANDS WHERE 25KT GUSTS
LIKELY AS SEEN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. SCA BEING POSTED FOR ALL
WATERS EXCEPT BOSTON HARBOR... NARRAGANSETT BAY AND BLOCK ISLAND
SOUND.

WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER
GULF OF MAINE...BUT WILL MAINTAIN SCA FOR OUTER WATERS WHERE SEAS
WILL TAKE TIME TO DROP BELOW 5 FT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...WINDS SWING AROUND TO SOUTHWEST WITH DAYTIME
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS...POSSIBLY NEAR 25 KNOTS SUNDAY. SEAS WILL
REMAIN 2-4 FEET. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY. WEST
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS.  SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER AND EXPOSED WATERS...AS A SOUTH SWELL
INCREASES TO 3-5 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ231>235-251-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/JWD
NEAR TERM...DOODY/EVT
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...DOODY/JWD/EVT
MARINE...DOODY/EVT/JWD




000
FXUS61 KBOX 181454
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1054 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...BUT MOISTURE IS
LIMITED SO IT WILL COME THROUGH DRY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING A TOUCH OF
FROST TO THE INTERIOR. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND RESULTING IN A WARMUP. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM UPDATE...
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE CT VALLEY INTO NE CT HAD PRETTY MUCH
DISSIPATED BY 10 AM...THOUGH SOME SPOTS ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES
HELD ON TO SOME LOW CLOUDS AS SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE. EXPECT
THOSE TO BURN OFF BY NOON...THOUGH SOME PATCHY MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL PUSH INTO S NH/N MA.

LEADING EDGE OF CLOUDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO CENTRAL VT/NH/ME AT 14Z...BUT MAY TEND TO BREAK APART AS THEY
SHIFT S TOWARD THE REGION DURING THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS TREND. ALSO NOTED THAT THIN BAND OF PRECIP ALONG THE
FRONT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS
PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATED. NOT SEEING ANY ASOS REPORTS OF PRECIP.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST. AS THE COLD FRONT SINKS S.

REMAINING GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CROSS SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH FRONT...SO ONLY
EXPECTING A PERIOD OF CLOUDINESS AS IT MOVES THROUGH ESPECIALLY
DUE TO PASSAGE OF UPPER TROUGH. COULD BE BRIEF SPRINKLE BUT RADAR
TRENDS SUGGEST KEEPING FORECAST DRY.

HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN 60S AND LOWER 70S...WHICH IS BLEND OF MOS
GUIDANCE. NAM MOS SEEMS A BIT TOO WARM WITH HIGHS REACHING MID 70S
NEAR S COAST CONSIDERING EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE THIS EVENING FROM N TO S AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASES BEHIND
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL SET STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT AS
LOWS DROP BACK INTO 30S AND 40S...WITH TOUCH OF FROST POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF NW MA AND SW NH. PER COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES THERE ARE A FEW CONCERNS WHICH MAY LIMIT
WIDESPREAD FROST...INCLUDING HOW FAST CLEARING OCCURS AND DO WINDS
DROP OFF ENOUGH TO ALLOW FROST FORMATION. GIVEN THESE CONCERNS WE
WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ADVISORIES AND ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO GET A
BETTER LOOK.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FRI. ONSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH
COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE SHOULD KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS IN 50S ALONG
IMMEDIATE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
LONG RANGE IS LIKELY TO BE DEFINED BY UPPER LVL LONGWAVE TROF AND
ASSOCIATED CUTOFF LOW PRES EXTENDING OUT OVER HUDSON BAY AND
BAFFIN ISLAND. INITIALLY...THIS TROF IS SHUNTED TO THE N OF NEW
ENGLAND...AS MID LVL RIDGE MOVES TO THE E...YIELDING ZONAL FLOW.
THIS IS THE WEEKEND TIMEFRAME...AND THE RISING HEIGHTS AND MODEST
SW LOW LVL FLOW WILL LEAD TO MODERATE WARMING THROUGH SAT AND SUN.
HOWEVER...STRONG COLD SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH CP AIRMASS NEAR
ALASKA...WILL ONCE AGAIN DIG AND DEEPEN THE TROF ACROSS THE E
EARLY  MID NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER TEMPS
ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THE MOST PART...THESE SYNOPTIC SCALE
FEATURES ARE REASONABLY WELL AGREED UPON...AND THE 18.00Z GFS IS
NOW MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE EARLY WEEK WAVE. THEREFORE...FEEL A BLEND OF
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS A GOOD STARTING POINT.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...

HIGH PRES WILL HOLD FAST ACROSS THE REGION...YIELDING AN INVERTED
RIDGE AS THE CENTER SHIFTS OFFSHORE THANKS TO CONFLUENT ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. FRI NIGHT...WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND NEAR SKC SKIES MAY LEAD
TO ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING IN NW MA AND SW NH VALLEYS FOR FROST
DEVELOPMENT. SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND...MODEST RETURN FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION LEAD
TO INCREASING H85 TEMPS FROM +11C SAT TO +14C SUN.
THEREFORE...HIGHS RANGE IN THE LOW-MID 70S SAT...THEN MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 ON SUN. PWAT VALUES LOOK TOO LOW AT THIS POINT TO
SUPPORT THE LIGHT QPF GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW EACH AFTERNOON...AND
WITH SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE BENEATH THE INVERTED RIDGE...WILL OPT TO
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION AS LOW PRES MOVES
THROUGH SRN ON AND QC. MODEST PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.5 IN...RIGHT
EQUATORWARD REGION OF UPPER LVL JET STREAK AND MODEST LOW LVL
F-GEN ALL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION AS
THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MODELS STARTING TO LINE UP ON
TIMING...MOVING IT THROUGH GENERALLY DURING THE AM HOURS MON. THIS
TIMING WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND SOUNDINGS LOOK
RELATIVELY STABLE...EVEN K VALUES REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW 30.
THEREFORE...SUSPECT MAINLY JUST WIDESPREAD -SHRA ACTIVITY TO MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT LATE DAY
MON. THIS TIMING WILL ALSO KEEP COASTAL LOW PRES OFFSHORE...SO QPF
VALUES SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW A HALF INCH GIVEN CURRENT
THINKING.

TUE INTO THU...

THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW MODERATELY COOL AIRMASS TO BEGIN TO
BUILD IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN FACT...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BY
TUE...546DM THICKNESS VALUES MAY APPROACH THE NW CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND +2C. THEREFORE...UNDER
THE COOL NW FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION...HIGHS TUE MAY STRUGGLE TO
BREAK OUT OF THE 60S...WITH SOME 50S POSSIBLE. GRADUAL MODERATION
IS EXPECTED INTO WED AND THU...BUT WITH TEMPS STILL LEANING
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE HIGH MAY NOT CREST ACROSS THE REGION
UNTIL WED...ONLY MOVING SLIGHTLY E BY THU...SO SUSPECT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR TODAY WITH SCT-BKN AT 4-6KFT DEVELOPING AROUND MIDDAY.
WEAK COLD FRONT BRINGS WIND SHIFT TO N/NE ACROSS MOST OF AREA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF SPRINKLE BUT PROBABLY NOT
MUCH MORE THAN THAT AND NOT ENOUGH TO WET RUNWAYS.

CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT. POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FROST ACROSS VALLEYS
OF NW MA AND SW NH. VFR FRI WITH E/NE FLOW.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF...INCLUDING TIMING OF WIND
SHIFT TODAY. POSSIBLE SEA BREEZE AROUND 18Z-19Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOME GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE
SAT MORNING AND SUN MORNING AT TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS. WINDS
MAINLY S-SW...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS MON.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY MOVE THROUGH WITH
THIS FRONT. OTHERWISE...IMPROVING BACK TO VFR BY LATE DAY MON.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES WATERS AROUND MIDDAY WITH WIND SHIFT TO
N/NE. SWELL FROM OFFSHORE HURRICANE EDOUARD SHOULD BRING 3-4 FT
SEAS TO OUTER WATERS BUT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA.

SHOULD SEE BRIEF SURGE IN N/NE WINDS TONIGHT AS COOLER AIR ARRIVES...
MAINLY FROM MERRIMACK RIVER TO CAPE COD/ISLANDS WHERE 25KT GUSTS
LIKELY AS SEEN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. SCA BEING POSTED FOR ALL
WATERS EXCEPT BOSTON HARBOR... NARRAGANSETT BAY AND BLOCK ISLAND
SOUND.

WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER
GULF OF MAINE...BUT WILL MAINTAIN SCA FOR OUTER WATERS WHERE SEAS
WILL TAKE TIME TO DROP BELOW 5 FT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...WINDS SWING AROUND TO SOUTHWEST WITH DAYTIME
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS...POSSIBLY NEAR 25 KNOTS SUNDAY. SEAS WILL
REMAIN 2-4 FEET. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY. WEST
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS.  SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER AND EXPOSED WATERS...AS A SOUTH SWELL
INCREASES TO 3-5 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ231>235-251-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/JWD
NEAR TERM...DOODY/EVT
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...DOODY/JWD/EVT
MARINE...DOODY/EVT/JWD



000
FXUS61 KBOX 181122
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
722 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...BUT MOISTURE IS
LIMITED SO IT WILL COME THROUGH DRY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING A TOUCH OF
FROST TO THE INTERIOR. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND RESULTING IN A WARMUP. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. NORMALLY
COOLER AREAS HAVE DIPPED INTO THE LOW 40S AND EVEN UPPER 30S IN A
FEW SPOTS UNDER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. IN THE
MEANTIME CLOUDS FROM AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT NW AND CI TO THE SE
CONTINUE TO ENCROACH. CURRENT FORECAST PARAMETERS REFLECT
THIS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL
REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH SUNRISE. EXPECT PATCHY FOG IN LOW LYING
AREAS DUE TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL BOTTOM
OUT IN 40S AND 50S.

WEAK COLD FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WILL
HEAD SE...CROSSING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH FRONT...SO ONLY EXPECTING A
PERIOD OF CLOUDINESS AS IT MOVES THROUGH ESPECIALLY DUE TO PASSAGE
OF UPPER TROUGH. COULD BE BRIEF SPRINKLE BUT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST
KEEPING FORECAST DRY.

HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN 60S AND LOWER 70S...WHICH IS BLEND OF MOS
GUIDANCE. NAM MOS SEEMS A BIT TOO WARM WITH HIGHS REACHING MID 70S
NEAR S COAST CONSIDERING EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE THIS EVENING FROM N TO S AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASES BEHIND
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL SET STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT AS
LOWS DROP BACK INTO 30S AND 40S...WITH TOUCH OF FROST POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF NW MA AND SW NH. PER COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES THERE ARE A FEW CONCERNS WHICH MAY LIMIT
WIDESPREAD FROST...INCLUDING HOW FAST CLEARING OCCURS AND DO WINDS
DROP OFF ENOUGH TO ALLOW FROST FORMATION. GIVEN THESE CONCERNS WE
WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ADVISORIES AND ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO GET A
BETTER LOOK.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FRI. ONSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH
COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE SHOULD KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS IN 50S ALONG
IMMEDIATE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
LONG RANGE IS LIKELY TO BE DEFINED BY UPPER LVL LONGWAVE TROF AND
ASSOCIATED CUTOFF LOW PRES EXTENDING OUT OVER HUDSON BAY AND
BAFFIN ISLAND. INITIALLY...THIS TROF IS SHUNTED TO THE N OF NEW
ENGLAND...AS MID LVL RIDGE MOVES TO THE E...YIELDING ZONAL FLOW.
THIS IS THE WEEKEND TIMEFRAME...AND THE RISING HEIGHTS AND MODEST
SW LOW LVL FLOW WILL LEAD TO MODERATE WARMING THROUGH SAT AND SUN.
HOWEVER...STRONG COLD SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH CP AIRMASS NEAR
ALASKA...WILL ONCE AGAIN DIG AND DEEPEN THE TROF ACROSS THE E
EARLY  MID NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER TEMPS
ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THE MOST PART...THESE SYNOPTIC SCALE
FEATURES ARE REASONABLY WELL AGREED UPON...AND THE 18.00Z GFS IS
NOW MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE EARLY WEEK WAVE. THEREFORE...FEEL A BLEND OF
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS A GOOD STARTING POINT.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...

HIGH PRES WILL HOLD FAST ACROSS THE REGION...YIELDING AN INVERTED
RIDGE AS THE CENTER SHIFTS OFFSHORE THANKS TO CONFLUENT ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. FRI NIGHT...WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND NEAR SKC SKIES MAY LEAD
TO ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING IN NW MA AND SW NH VALLEYS FOR FROST
DEVELOPMENT. SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND...MODEST RETURN FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION LEAD
TO INCREASING H85 TEMPS FROM +11C SAT TO +14C SUN.
THEREFORE...HIGHS RANGE IN THE LOW-MID 70S SAT...THEN MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 ON SUN. PWAT VALUES LOOK TOO LOW AT THIS POINT TO
SUPPORT THE LIGHT QPF GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW EACH AFTERNOON...AND
WITH SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE BENEATH THE INVERTED RIDGE...WILL OPT TO
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION AS LOW PRES MOVES
THROUGH SRN ON AND QC. MODEST PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.5 IN...RIGHT
EQUATORWARD REGION OF UPPER LVL JET STREAK AND MODEST LOW LVL
F-GEN ALL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION AS
THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MODELS STARTING TO LINE UP ON
TIMING...MOVING IT THROUGH GENERALLY DURING THE AM HOURS MON. THIS
TIMING WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND SOUNDINGS LOOK
RELATIVELY STABLE...EVEN K VALUES REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW 30.
THEREFORE...SUSPECT MAINLY JUST WIDESPREAD -SHRA ACTIVITY TO MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT LATE DAY
MON. THIS TIMING WILL ALSO KEEP COASTAL LOW PRES OFFSHORE...SO QPF
VALUES SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW A HALF INCH GIVEN CURRENT
THINKING.

TUE INTO THU...

THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW MODERATELY COOL AIRMASS TO BEGIN TO
BUILD IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN FACT...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BY
TUE...546DM THICKNESS VALUES MAY APPROACH THE NW CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND +2C. THEREFORE...UNDER
THE COOL NW FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION...HIGHS TUE MAY STRUGGLE TO
BREAK OUT OF THE 60S...WITH SOME 50S POSSIBLE. GRADUAL MODERATION
IS EXPECTED INTO WED AND THU...BUT WITH TEMPS STILL LEANING
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE HIGH MAY NOT CREST ACROSS THE REGION
UNTIL WED...ONLY MOVING SLIGHTLY E BY THU...SO SUSPECT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ONLY MINOR ADJUSMENTS WITH THE 12Z UPDATE.

MAINLY VFR TODAY WITH SCT-BKN040-060 DEVELOPING AROUND MIDDAY.
WEAK COLD FRONT BRINGS WIND SHIFT TO N/NE ACROSS MOST OF AREA BY
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF SPRINKLE BUT
PROBABLY NOT MUCH MORE THAN THAT AND NOT ENOUGH TO WET RUNWAYS.

CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT. POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FROST ACROSS VALLEYS
OF NW MA AND SW NH. VFR FRI WITH E/NE FLOW.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF...INCLUDING TIMING OF WIND
SHIFT TODAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOME GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE
SAT MORNING AND SUN MORNING AT TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS. WINDS
MAINLY S-SW...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS MON.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY MOVE THROUGH WITH
THIS FRONT. OTHERWISE...IMPROVING BACK TO VFR BY LATE DAY MON.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES WATERS LATER THIS MORNING WITH WIND SHIFT
TO N/NE. SWELL FROM OFFSHORE HURRICANE EDOUARD SHOULD BRING 3-4 FT
SEAS TO OUTER WATERS BUT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA.

SHOULD SEE BRIEF SURGE IN N/NE WINDS TONIGHT AS COOLER AIR ARRIVES...
MAINLY FROM MERRIMACK RIVER TO CAPE COD/ISLANDS WHERE 25KT GUSTS
LIKELY AS SEEN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. SCA BEING POSTED FOR ALL
WATERS EXCEPT BOSTON HARBOR... NARRAGANSETT BAY AND BLOCK ISLAND
SOUND.

WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER
GULF OF MAINE...BUT WILL MAINTAIN SCA FOR OUTER WATERS WHERE SEAS
WILL TAKE TIME TO DROP BELOW 5 FT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...WINDS SWING AROUND TO SOUTHWEST WITH DAYTIME
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS...POSSIBLY NEAR 25 KNOTS SUNDAY. SEAS WILL
REMAIN 2-4 FEET. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY. WEST
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS.  SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER AND EXPOSED WATERS...AS A SOUTH SWELL
INCREASES TO 3-5 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ231>235-251-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/JWD
NEAR TERM...DOODY/JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...DOODY/JWD
MARINE...DOODY/JWD



000
FXUS61 KBOX 181122
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
722 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...BUT MOISTURE IS
LIMITED SO IT WILL COME THROUGH DRY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING A TOUCH OF
FROST TO THE INTERIOR. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND RESULTING IN A WARMUP. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. NORMALLY
COOLER AREAS HAVE DIPPED INTO THE LOW 40S AND EVEN UPPER 30S IN A
FEW SPOTS UNDER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. IN THE
MEANTIME CLOUDS FROM AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT NW AND CI TO THE SE
CONTINUE TO ENCROACH. CURRENT FORECAST PARAMETERS REFLECT
THIS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL
REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH SUNRISE. EXPECT PATCHY FOG IN LOW LYING
AREAS DUE TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL BOTTOM
OUT IN 40S AND 50S.

WEAK COLD FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WILL
HEAD SE...CROSSING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH FRONT...SO ONLY EXPECTING A
PERIOD OF CLOUDINESS AS IT MOVES THROUGH ESPECIALLY DUE TO PASSAGE
OF UPPER TROUGH. COULD BE BRIEF SPRINKLE BUT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST
KEEPING FORECAST DRY.

HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN 60S AND LOWER 70S...WHICH IS BLEND OF MOS
GUIDANCE. NAM MOS SEEMS A BIT TOO WARM WITH HIGHS REACHING MID 70S
NEAR S COAST CONSIDERING EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE THIS EVENING FROM N TO S AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASES BEHIND
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL SET STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT AS
LOWS DROP BACK INTO 30S AND 40S...WITH TOUCH OF FROST POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF NW MA AND SW NH. PER COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES THERE ARE A FEW CONCERNS WHICH MAY LIMIT
WIDESPREAD FROST...INCLUDING HOW FAST CLEARING OCCURS AND DO WINDS
DROP OFF ENOUGH TO ALLOW FROST FORMATION. GIVEN THESE CONCERNS WE
WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ADVISORIES AND ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO GET A
BETTER LOOK.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FRI. ONSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH
COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE SHOULD KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS IN 50S ALONG
IMMEDIATE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
LONG RANGE IS LIKELY TO BE DEFINED BY UPPER LVL LONGWAVE TROF AND
ASSOCIATED CUTOFF LOW PRES EXTENDING OUT OVER HUDSON BAY AND
BAFFIN ISLAND. INITIALLY...THIS TROF IS SHUNTED TO THE N OF NEW
ENGLAND...AS MID LVL RIDGE MOVES TO THE E...YIELDING ZONAL FLOW.
THIS IS THE WEEKEND TIMEFRAME...AND THE RISING HEIGHTS AND MODEST
SW LOW LVL FLOW WILL LEAD TO MODERATE WARMING THROUGH SAT AND SUN.
HOWEVER...STRONG COLD SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH CP AIRMASS NEAR
ALASKA...WILL ONCE AGAIN DIG AND DEEPEN THE TROF ACROSS THE E
EARLY  MID NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER TEMPS
ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THE MOST PART...THESE SYNOPTIC SCALE
FEATURES ARE REASONABLY WELL AGREED UPON...AND THE 18.00Z GFS IS
NOW MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE EARLY WEEK WAVE. THEREFORE...FEEL A BLEND OF
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS A GOOD STARTING POINT.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...

HIGH PRES WILL HOLD FAST ACROSS THE REGION...YIELDING AN INVERTED
RIDGE AS THE CENTER SHIFTS OFFSHORE THANKS TO CONFLUENT ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. FRI NIGHT...WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND NEAR SKC SKIES MAY LEAD
TO ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING IN NW MA AND SW NH VALLEYS FOR FROST
DEVELOPMENT. SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND...MODEST RETURN FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION LEAD
TO INCREASING H85 TEMPS FROM +11C SAT TO +14C SUN.
THEREFORE...HIGHS RANGE IN THE LOW-MID 70S SAT...THEN MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 ON SUN. PWAT VALUES LOOK TOO LOW AT THIS POINT TO
SUPPORT THE LIGHT QPF GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW EACH AFTERNOON...AND
WITH SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE BENEATH THE INVERTED RIDGE...WILL OPT TO
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION AS LOW PRES MOVES
THROUGH SRN ON AND QC. MODEST PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.5 IN...RIGHT
EQUATORWARD REGION OF UPPER LVL JET STREAK AND MODEST LOW LVL
F-GEN ALL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION AS
THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MODELS STARTING TO LINE UP ON
TIMING...MOVING IT THROUGH GENERALLY DURING THE AM HOURS MON. THIS
TIMING WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND SOUNDINGS LOOK
RELATIVELY STABLE...EVEN K VALUES REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW 30.
THEREFORE...SUSPECT MAINLY JUST WIDESPREAD -SHRA ACTIVITY TO MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT LATE DAY
MON. THIS TIMING WILL ALSO KEEP COASTAL LOW PRES OFFSHORE...SO QPF
VALUES SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW A HALF INCH GIVEN CURRENT
THINKING.

TUE INTO THU...

THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW MODERATELY COOL AIRMASS TO BEGIN TO
BUILD IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN FACT...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BY
TUE...546DM THICKNESS VALUES MAY APPROACH THE NW CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND +2C. THEREFORE...UNDER
THE COOL NW FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION...HIGHS TUE MAY STRUGGLE TO
BREAK OUT OF THE 60S...WITH SOME 50S POSSIBLE. GRADUAL MODERATION
IS EXPECTED INTO WED AND THU...BUT WITH TEMPS STILL LEANING
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE HIGH MAY NOT CREST ACROSS THE REGION
UNTIL WED...ONLY MOVING SLIGHTLY E BY THU...SO SUSPECT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ONLY MINOR ADJUSMENTS WITH THE 12Z UPDATE.

MAINLY VFR TODAY WITH SCT-BKN040-060 DEVELOPING AROUND MIDDAY.
WEAK COLD FRONT BRINGS WIND SHIFT TO N/NE ACROSS MOST OF AREA BY
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF SPRINKLE BUT
PROBABLY NOT MUCH MORE THAN THAT AND NOT ENOUGH TO WET RUNWAYS.

CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT. POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FROST ACROSS VALLEYS
OF NW MA AND SW NH. VFR FRI WITH E/NE FLOW.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF...INCLUDING TIMING OF WIND
SHIFT TODAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOME GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE
SAT MORNING AND SUN MORNING AT TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS. WINDS
MAINLY S-SW...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS MON.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY MOVE THROUGH WITH
THIS FRONT. OTHERWISE...IMPROVING BACK TO VFR BY LATE DAY MON.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES WATERS LATER THIS MORNING WITH WIND SHIFT
TO N/NE. SWELL FROM OFFSHORE HURRICANE EDOUARD SHOULD BRING 3-4 FT
SEAS TO OUTER WATERS BUT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA.

SHOULD SEE BRIEF SURGE IN N/NE WINDS TONIGHT AS COOLER AIR ARRIVES...
MAINLY FROM MERRIMACK RIVER TO CAPE COD/ISLANDS WHERE 25KT GUSTS
LIKELY AS SEEN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. SCA BEING POSTED FOR ALL
WATERS EXCEPT BOSTON HARBOR... NARRAGANSETT BAY AND BLOCK ISLAND
SOUND.

WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER
GULF OF MAINE...BUT WILL MAINTAIN SCA FOR OUTER WATERS WHERE SEAS
WILL TAKE TIME TO DROP BELOW 5 FT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...WINDS SWING AROUND TO SOUTHWEST WITH DAYTIME
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS...POSSIBLY NEAR 25 KNOTS SUNDAY. SEAS WILL
REMAIN 2-4 FEET. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY. WEST
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS.  SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER AND EXPOSED WATERS...AS A SOUTH SWELL
INCREASES TO 3-5 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ231>235-251-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/JWD
NEAR TERM...DOODY/JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...DOODY/JWD
MARINE...DOODY/JWD




000
FXUS61 KBOX 181122
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
722 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...BUT MOISTURE IS
LIMITED SO IT WILL COME THROUGH DRY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING A TOUCH OF
FROST TO THE INTERIOR. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND RESULTING IN A WARMUP. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. NORMALLY
COOLER AREAS HAVE DIPPED INTO THE LOW 40S AND EVEN UPPER 30S IN A
FEW SPOTS UNDER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. IN THE
MEANTIME CLOUDS FROM AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT NW AND CI TO THE SE
CONTINUE TO ENCROACH. CURRENT FORECAST PARAMETERS REFLECT
THIS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL
REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH SUNRISE. EXPECT PATCHY FOG IN LOW LYING
AREAS DUE TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL BOTTOM
OUT IN 40S AND 50S.

WEAK COLD FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WILL
HEAD SE...CROSSING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH FRONT...SO ONLY EXPECTING A
PERIOD OF CLOUDINESS AS IT MOVES THROUGH ESPECIALLY DUE TO PASSAGE
OF UPPER TROUGH. COULD BE BRIEF SPRINKLE BUT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST
KEEPING FORECAST DRY.

HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN 60S AND LOWER 70S...WHICH IS BLEND OF MOS
GUIDANCE. NAM MOS SEEMS A BIT TOO WARM WITH HIGHS REACHING MID 70S
NEAR S COAST CONSIDERING EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE THIS EVENING FROM N TO S AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASES BEHIND
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL SET STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT AS
LOWS DROP BACK INTO 30S AND 40S...WITH TOUCH OF FROST POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF NW MA AND SW NH. PER COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES THERE ARE A FEW CONCERNS WHICH MAY LIMIT
WIDESPREAD FROST...INCLUDING HOW FAST CLEARING OCCURS AND DO WINDS
DROP OFF ENOUGH TO ALLOW FROST FORMATION. GIVEN THESE CONCERNS WE
WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ADVISORIES AND ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO GET A
BETTER LOOK.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FRI. ONSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH
COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE SHOULD KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS IN 50S ALONG
IMMEDIATE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
LONG RANGE IS LIKELY TO BE DEFINED BY UPPER LVL LONGWAVE TROF AND
ASSOCIATED CUTOFF LOW PRES EXTENDING OUT OVER HUDSON BAY AND
BAFFIN ISLAND. INITIALLY...THIS TROF IS SHUNTED TO THE N OF NEW
ENGLAND...AS MID LVL RIDGE MOVES TO THE E...YIELDING ZONAL FLOW.
THIS IS THE WEEKEND TIMEFRAME...AND THE RISING HEIGHTS AND MODEST
SW LOW LVL FLOW WILL LEAD TO MODERATE WARMING THROUGH SAT AND SUN.
HOWEVER...STRONG COLD SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH CP AIRMASS NEAR
ALASKA...WILL ONCE AGAIN DIG AND DEEPEN THE TROF ACROSS THE E
EARLY  MID NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER TEMPS
ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THE MOST PART...THESE SYNOPTIC SCALE
FEATURES ARE REASONABLY WELL AGREED UPON...AND THE 18.00Z GFS IS
NOW MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE EARLY WEEK WAVE. THEREFORE...FEEL A BLEND OF
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS A GOOD STARTING POINT.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...

HIGH PRES WILL HOLD FAST ACROSS THE REGION...YIELDING AN INVERTED
RIDGE AS THE CENTER SHIFTS OFFSHORE THANKS TO CONFLUENT ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. FRI NIGHT...WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND NEAR SKC SKIES MAY LEAD
TO ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING IN NW MA AND SW NH VALLEYS FOR FROST
DEVELOPMENT. SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND...MODEST RETURN FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION LEAD
TO INCREASING H85 TEMPS FROM +11C SAT TO +14C SUN.
THEREFORE...HIGHS RANGE IN THE LOW-MID 70S SAT...THEN MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 ON SUN. PWAT VALUES LOOK TOO LOW AT THIS POINT TO
SUPPORT THE LIGHT QPF GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW EACH AFTERNOON...AND
WITH SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE BENEATH THE INVERTED RIDGE...WILL OPT TO
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION AS LOW PRES MOVES
THROUGH SRN ON AND QC. MODEST PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.5 IN...RIGHT
EQUATORWARD REGION OF UPPER LVL JET STREAK AND MODEST LOW LVL
F-GEN ALL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION AS
THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MODELS STARTING TO LINE UP ON
TIMING...MOVING IT THROUGH GENERALLY DURING THE AM HOURS MON. THIS
TIMING WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND SOUNDINGS LOOK
RELATIVELY STABLE...EVEN K VALUES REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW 30.
THEREFORE...SUSPECT MAINLY JUST WIDESPREAD -SHRA ACTIVITY TO MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT LATE DAY
MON. THIS TIMING WILL ALSO KEEP COASTAL LOW PRES OFFSHORE...SO QPF
VALUES SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW A HALF INCH GIVEN CURRENT
THINKING.

TUE INTO THU...

THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW MODERATELY COOL AIRMASS TO BEGIN TO
BUILD IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN FACT...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BY
TUE...546DM THICKNESS VALUES MAY APPROACH THE NW CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND +2C. THEREFORE...UNDER
THE COOL NW FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION...HIGHS TUE MAY STRUGGLE TO
BREAK OUT OF THE 60S...WITH SOME 50S POSSIBLE. GRADUAL MODERATION
IS EXPECTED INTO WED AND THU...BUT WITH TEMPS STILL LEANING
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE HIGH MAY NOT CREST ACROSS THE REGION
UNTIL WED...ONLY MOVING SLIGHTLY E BY THU...SO SUSPECT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ONLY MINOR ADJUSMENTS WITH THE 12Z UPDATE.

MAINLY VFR TODAY WITH SCT-BKN040-060 DEVELOPING AROUND MIDDAY.
WEAK COLD FRONT BRINGS WIND SHIFT TO N/NE ACROSS MOST OF AREA BY
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF SPRINKLE BUT
PROBABLY NOT MUCH MORE THAN THAT AND NOT ENOUGH TO WET RUNWAYS.

CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT. POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FROST ACROSS VALLEYS
OF NW MA AND SW NH. VFR FRI WITH E/NE FLOW.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF...INCLUDING TIMING OF WIND
SHIFT TODAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOME GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE
SAT MORNING AND SUN MORNING AT TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS. WINDS
MAINLY S-SW...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS MON.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY MOVE THROUGH WITH
THIS FRONT. OTHERWISE...IMPROVING BACK TO VFR BY LATE DAY MON.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES WATERS LATER THIS MORNING WITH WIND SHIFT
TO N/NE. SWELL FROM OFFSHORE HURRICANE EDOUARD SHOULD BRING 3-4 FT
SEAS TO OUTER WATERS BUT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA.

SHOULD SEE BRIEF SURGE IN N/NE WINDS TONIGHT AS COOLER AIR ARRIVES...
MAINLY FROM MERRIMACK RIVER TO CAPE COD/ISLANDS WHERE 25KT GUSTS
LIKELY AS SEEN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. SCA BEING POSTED FOR ALL
WATERS EXCEPT BOSTON HARBOR... NARRAGANSETT BAY AND BLOCK ISLAND
SOUND.

WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER
GULF OF MAINE...BUT WILL MAINTAIN SCA FOR OUTER WATERS WHERE SEAS
WILL TAKE TIME TO DROP BELOW 5 FT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...WINDS SWING AROUND TO SOUTHWEST WITH DAYTIME
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS...POSSIBLY NEAR 25 KNOTS SUNDAY. SEAS WILL
REMAIN 2-4 FEET. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY. WEST
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS.  SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER AND EXPOSED WATERS...AS A SOUTH SWELL
INCREASES TO 3-5 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ231>235-251-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/JWD
NEAR TERM...DOODY/JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...DOODY/JWD
MARINE...DOODY/JWD



000
FXUS61 KBOX 180742
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
342 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...BUT MOISTURE IS
LIMITED SO IT WILL COME THROUGH DRY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING A TOUCH OF
FROST TO THE INTERIOR. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND RESULTING IN A WARMUP. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
305 AM UPDATE...

SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL
REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH SUNRISE. EXPECT PATCHY FOG IN LOW LYING
AREAS DUE TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL BOTTOM
OUT IN 40S AND 50S.

WEAK COLD FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WILL
HEAD SE...CROSSING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH FRONT...SO ONLY EXPECTING A
PERIOD OF CLOUDINESS AS IT MOVES THROUGH ESPECIALLY DUE TO PASSAGE
OF UPPER TROUGH. COULD BE BRIEF SPRINKLE BUT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST
KEEPING FORECAST DRY.

HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN 60S AND LOWER 70S...WHICH IS BLEND OF MOS
GUIDANCE. NAM MOS SEEMS A BIT TOO WARM WITH HIGHS REACHING MID 70S
NEAR S COAST CONSIDERING EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE THIS EVENING FROM N TO S AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASES BEHIND
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL SET STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT AS
LOWS DROP BACK INTO 30S AND 40S...WITH TOUCH OF FROST POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF NW MA AND SW NH. PER COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES THERE ARE A FEW CONCERNS WHICH MAY LIMIT
WIDESPREAD FROST...INCLUDING HOW FAST CLEARING OCCURS AND DO WINDS
DROP OFF ENOUGH TO ALLOW FROST FORMATION. GIVEN THESE CONCERNS WE
WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ADVISORIES AND ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO GET A
BETTER LOOK.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FRI. ONSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH
COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE SHOULD KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS IN 50S ALONG
IMMEDIATE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
LONG RANGE IS LIKELY TO BE DEFINED BY UPPER LVL LONGWAVE TROF AND
ASSOCIATED CUTOFF LOW PRES EXTENDING OUT OVER HUDSON BAY AND
BAFFIN ISLAND. INITIALLY...THIS TROF IS SHUNTED TO THE N OF NEW
ENGLAND...AS MID LVL RIDGE MOVES TO THE E...YIELDING ZONAL FLOW.
THIS IS THE WEEKEND TIMEFRAME...AND THE RISING HEIGHTS AND MODEST
SW LOW LVL FLOW WILL LEAD TO MODERATE WARMING THROUGH SAT AND SUN.
HOWEVER...STRONG COLD SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH CP AIRMASS NEAR
ALASKA...WILL ONCE AGAIN DIG AND DEEPEN THE TROF ACROSS THE E
EARLY  MID NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER TEMPS
ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THE MOST PART...THESE SYNOPTIC SCALE
FEATURES ARE REASONABLY WELL AGREED UPON...AND THE 18.00Z GFS IS
NOW MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE EARLY WEEK WAVE. THEREFORE...FEEL A BLEND OF
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS A GOOD STARTING POINT.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...

HIGH PRES WILL HOLD FAST ACROSS THE REGION...YIELDING AN INVERTED
RIDGE AS THE CENTER SHIFTS OFFSHORE THANKS TO CONFLUENT ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. FRI NIGHT...WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND NEAR SKC SKIES MAY LEAD
TO ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING IN NW MA AND SW NH VALLEYS FOR FROST
DEVELOPMENT. SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND...MODEST RETURN FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION LEAD
TO INCREASING H85 TEMPS FROM +11C SAT TO +14C SUN.
THEREFORE...HIGHS RANGE IN THE LOW-MID 70S SAT...THEN MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 ON SUN. PWAT VALUES LOOK TOO LOW AT THIS POINT TO
SUPPORT THE LIGHT QPF GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW EACH AFTERNOON...AND
WITH SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE BENEATH THE INVERTED RIDGE...WILL OPT TO
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION AS LOW PRES MOVES
THROUGH SRN ON AND QC. MODEST PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.5 IN...RIGHT
EQUATORWARD REGION OF UPPER LVL JET STREAK AND MODEST LOW LVL
F-GEN ALL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION AS
THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MODELS STARTING TO LINE UP ON
TIMING...MOVING IT THROUGH GENERALLY DURING THE AM HOURS MON. THIS
TIMING WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND SOUNDINGS LOOK
RELATIVELY STABLE...EVEN K VALUES REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW 30.
THEREFORE...SUSPECT MAINLY JUST WIDESPREAD -SHRA ACTIVITY TO MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT LATE DAY
MON. THIS TIMING WILL ALSO KEEP COASTAL LOW PRES OFFSHORE...SO QPF
VALUES SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW A HALF INCH GIVEN CURRENT
THINKING.

TUE INTO THU...

THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW MODERATELY COOL AIRMASS TO BEGIN TO
BUILD IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN FACT...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BY
TUE...546DM THICKNESS VALUES MAY APPROACH THE NW CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND +2C. THEREFORE...UNDER
THE COOL NW FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION...HIGHS TUE MAY STRUGGLE TO
BREAK OUT OF THE 60S...WITH SOME 50S POSSIBLE. GRADUAL MODERATION
IS EXPECTED INTO WED AND THU...BUT WITH TEMPS STILL LEANING
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE HIGH MAY NOT CREST ACROSS THE REGION
UNTIL WED...ONLY MOVING SLIGHTLY E BY THU...SO SUSPECT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN VALLEY FOG THROUGH SUNRISE...OTHERWISE VFR
TODAY WITH SCT-BKN040-060 DEVELOPING AROUND MIDDAY. WEAK COLD
FRONT BRINGS WIND SHIFT TO N/NE ACROSS MOST OF AREA BY LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF SPRINKLE BUT
PROBABLY NOT MUCH MORE THAN THAT AND NOT ENOUGH TO WET RUNWAYS.

CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT. POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FROST ACROSS VALLEYS
OF NW MA AND SW NH. VFR FRI WITH E/NE FLOW.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF...INCLUDING TIMING OF WIND
SHIFT TODAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOME GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE
SAT MORNING AND SUN MORNING AT TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS. WINDS
MAINLY S-SW...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS MON.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY MOVE THROUGH WITH
THIS FRONT. OTHERWISE...IMPROVING BACK TO VFR BY LATE DAY MON.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES WATERS LATER THIS MORNING WITH WIND SHIFT
TO N/NE. SWELL FROM OFFSHORE HURRICANE EDOUARD SHOULD BRING 3-4 FT
SEAS TO OUTER WATERS BUT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA.

SHOULD SEE BRIEF SURGE IN N/NE WINDS TONIGHT AS COOLER AIR ARRIVES...
MAINLY FROM MERRIMACK RIVER TO CAPE COD/ISLANDS WHERE 25KT GUSTS
LIKELY AS SEEN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. SCA BEING POSTED FOR ALL
WATERS EXCEPT BOSTON HARBOR... NARRAGANSETT BAY AND BLOCK ISLAND
SOUND.

WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER
GULF OF MAINE...BUT WILL MAINTAIN SCA FOR OUTER WATERS WHERE SEAS
WILL TAKE TIME TO DROP BELOW 5 FT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...WINDS SWING AROUND TO SOUTHWEST WITH DAYTIME
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS...POSSIBLY NEAR 25 KNOTS SUNDAY. SEAS WILL
REMAIN 2-4 FEET. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY. WEST
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS.  SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER AND EXPOSED WATERS...AS A SOUTH SWELL
INCREASES TO 3-5 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ231>235-251-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...DOODY/JWD
MARINE...DOODY/JWD



000
FXUS61 KBOX 180742
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
342 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...BUT MOISTURE IS
LIMITED SO IT WILL COME THROUGH DRY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING A TOUCH OF
FROST TO THE INTERIOR. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND RESULTING IN A WARMUP. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
305 AM UPDATE...

SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL
REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH SUNRISE. EXPECT PATCHY FOG IN LOW LYING
AREAS DUE TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL BOTTOM
OUT IN 40S AND 50S.

WEAK COLD FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WILL
HEAD SE...CROSSING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH FRONT...SO ONLY EXPECTING A
PERIOD OF CLOUDINESS AS IT MOVES THROUGH ESPECIALLY DUE TO PASSAGE
OF UPPER TROUGH. COULD BE BRIEF SPRINKLE BUT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST
KEEPING FORECAST DRY.

HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN 60S AND LOWER 70S...WHICH IS BLEND OF MOS
GUIDANCE. NAM MOS SEEMS A BIT TOO WARM WITH HIGHS REACHING MID 70S
NEAR S COAST CONSIDERING EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE THIS EVENING FROM N TO S AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASES BEHIND
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL SET STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT AS
LOWS DROP BACK INTO 30S AND 40S...WITH TOUCH OF FROST POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF NW MA AND SW NH. PER COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES THERE ARE A FEW CONCERNS WHICH MAY LIMIT
WIDESPREAD FROST...INCLUDING HOW FAST CLEARING OCCURS AND DO WINDS
DROP OFF ENOUGH TO ALLOW FROST FORMATION. GIVEN THESE CONCERNS WE
WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ADVISORIES AND ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO GET A
BETTER LOOK.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FRI. ONSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH
COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE SHOULD KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS IN 50S ALONG
IMMEDIATE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
LONG RANGE IS LIKELY TO BE DEFINED BY UPPER LVL LONGWAVE TROF AND
ASSOCIATED CUTOFF LOW PRES EXTENDING OUT OVER HUDSON BAY AND
BAFFIN ISLAND. INITIALLY...THIS TROF IS SHUNTED TO THE N OF NEW
ENGLAND...AS MID LVL RIDGE MOVES TO THE E...YIELDING ZONAL FLOW.
THIS IS THE WEEKEND TIMEFRAME...AND THE RISING HEIGHTS AND MODEST
SW LOW LVL FLOW WILL LEAD TO MODERATE WARMING THROUGH SAT AND SUN.
HOWEVER...STRONG COLD SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH CP AIRMASS NEAR
ALASKA...WILL ONCE AGAIN DIG AND DEEPEN THE TROF ACROSS THE E
EARLY  MID NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER TEMPS
ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THE MOST PART...THESE SYNOPTIC SCALE
FEATURES ARE REASONABLY WELL AGREED UPON...AND THE 18.00Z GFS IS
NOW MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE EARLY WEEK WAVE. THEREFORE...FEEL A BLEND OF
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS A GOOD STARTING POINT.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...

HIGH PRES WILL HOLD FAST ACROSS THE REGION...YIELDING AN INVERTED
RIDGE AS THE CENTER SHIFTS OFFSHORE THANKS TO CONFLUENT ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. FRI NIGHT...WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND NEAR SKC SKIES MAY LEAD
TO ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING IN NW MA AND SW NH VALLEYS FOR FROST
DEVELOPMENT. SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND...MODEST RETURN FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION LEAD
TO INCREASING H85 TEMPS FROM +11C SAT TO +14C SUN.
THEREFORE...HIGHS RANGE IN THE LOW-MID 70S SAT...THEN MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 ON SUN. PWAT VALUES LOOK TOO LOW AT THIS POINT TO
SUPPORT THE LIGHT QPF GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW EACH AFTERNOON...AND
WITH SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE BENEATH THE INVERTED RIDGE...WILL OPT TO
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION AS LOW PRES MOVES
THROUGH SRN ON AND QC. MODEST PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.5 IN...RIGHT
EQUATORWARD REGION OF UPPER LVL JET STREAK AND MODEST LOW LVL
F-GEN ALL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION AS
THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MODELS STARTING TO LINE UP ON
TIMING...MOVING IT THROUGH GENERALLY DURING THE AM HOURS MON. THIS
TIMING WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND SOUNDINGS LOOK
RELATIVELY STABLE...EVEN K VALUES REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW 30.
THEREFORE...SUSPECT MAINLY JUST WIDESPREAD -SHRA ACTIVITY TO MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT LATE DAY
MON. THIS TIMING WILL ALSO KEEP COASTAL LOW PRES OFFSHORE...SO QPF
VALUES SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW A HALF INCH GIVEN CURRENT
THINKING.

TUE INTO THU...

THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW MODERATELY COOL AIRMASS TO BEGIN TO
BUILD IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN FACT...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BY
TUE...546DM THICKNESS VALUES MAY APPROACH THE NW CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND +2C. THEREFORE...UNDER
THE COOL NW FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION...HIGHS TUE MAY STRUGGLE TO
BREAK OUT OF THE 60S...WITH SOME 50S POSSIBLE. GRADUAL MODERATION
IS EXPECTED INTO WED AND THU...BUT WITH TEMPS STILL LEANING
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE HIGH MAY NOT CREST ACROSS THE REGION
UNTIL WED...ONLY MOVING SLIGHTLY E BY THU...SO SUSPECT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN VALLEY FOG THROUGH SUNRISE...OTHERWISE VFR
TODAY WITH SCT-BKN040-060 DEVELOPING AROUND MIDDAY. WEAK COLD
FRONT BRINGS WIND SHIFT TO N/NE ACROSS MOST OF AREA BY LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF SPRINKLE BUT
PROBABLY NOT MUCH MORE THAN THAT AND NOT ENOUGH TO WET RUNWAYS.

CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT. POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FROST ACROSS VALLEYS
OF NW MA AND SW NH. VFR FRI WITH E/NE FLOW.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF...INCLUDING TIMING OF WIND
SHIFT TODAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOME GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE
SAT MORNING AND SUN MORNING AT TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS. WINDS
MAINLY S-SW...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS MON.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY MOVE THROUGH WITH
THIS FRONT. OTHERWISE...IMPROVING BACK TO VFR BY LATE DAY MON.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES WATERS LATER THIS MORNING WITH WIND SHIFT
TO N/NE. SWELL FROM OFFSHORE HURRICANE EDOUARD SHOULD BRING 3-4 FT
SEAS TO OUTER WATERS BUT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA.

SHOULD SEE BRIEF SURGE IN N/NE WINDS TONIGHT AS COOLER AIR ARRIVES...
MAINLY FROM MERRIMACK RIVER TO CAPE COD/ISLANDS WHERE 25KT GUSTS
LIKELY AS SEEN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. SCA BEING POSTED FOR ALL
WATERS EXCEPT BOSTON HARBOR... NARRAGANSETT BAY AND BLOCK ISLAND
SOUND.

WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER
GULF OF MAINE...BUT WILL MAINTAIN SCA FOR OUTER WATERS WHERE SEAS
WILL TAKE TIME TO DROP BELOW 5 FT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...WINDS SWING AROUND TO SOUTHWEST WITH DAYTIME
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS...POSSIBLY NEAR 25 KNOTS SUNDAY. SEAS WILL
REMAIN 2-4 FEET. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY. WEST
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS.  SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER AND EXPOSED WATERS...AS A SOUTH SWELL
INCREASES TO 3-5 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ231>235-251-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...DOODY/JWD
MARINE...DOODY/JWD




000
FXUS61 KBOX 180742
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
342 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...BUT MOISTURE IS
LIMITED SO IT WILL COME THROUGH DRY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING A TOUCH OF
FROST TO THE INTERIOR. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND RESULTING IN A WARMUP. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
305 AM UPDATE...

SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL
REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH SUNRISE. EXPECT PATCHY FOG IN LOW LYING
AREAS DUE TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL BOTTOM
OUT IN 40S AND 50S.

WEAK COLD FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WILL
HEAD SE...CROSSING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH FRONT...SO ONLY EXPECTING A
PERIOD OF CLOUDINESS AS IT MOVES THROUGH ESPECIALLY DUE TO PASSAGE
OF UPPER TROUGH. COULD BE BRIEF SPRINKLE BUT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST
KEEPING FORECAST DRY.

HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN 60S AND LOWER 70S...WHICH IS BLEND OF MOS
GUIDANCE. NAM MOS SEEMS A BIT TOO WARM WITH HIGHS REACHING MID 70S
NEAR S COAST CONSIDERING EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE THIS EVENING FROM N TO S AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASES BEHIND
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL SET STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT AS
LOWS DROP BACK INTO 30S AND 40S...WITH TOUCH OF FROST POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF NW MA AND SW NH. PER COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES THERE ARE A FEW CONCERNS WHICH MAY LIMIT
WIDESPREAD FROST...INCLUDING HOW FAST CLEARING OCCURS AND DO WINDS
DROP OFF ENOUGH TO ALLOW FROST FORMATION. GIVEN THESE CONCERNS WE
WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ADVISORIES AND ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO GET A
BETTER LOOK.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FRI. ONSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH
COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE SHOULD KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS IN 50S ALONG
IMMEDIATE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
LONG RANGE IS LIKELY TO BE DEFINED BY UPPER LVL LONGWAVE TROF AND
ASSOCIATED CUTOFF LOW PRES EXTENDING OUT OVER HUDSON BAY AND
BAFFIN ISLAND. INITIALLY...THIS TROF IS SHUNTED TO THE N OF NEW
ENGLAND...AS MID LVL RIDGE MOVES TO THE E...YIELDING ZONAL FLOW.
THIS IS THE WEEKEND TIMEFRAME...AND THE RISING HEIGHTS AND MODEST
SW LOW LVL FLOW WILL LEAD TO MODERATE WARMING THROUGH SAT AND SUN.
HOWEVER...STRONG COLD SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH CP AIRMASS NEAR
ALASKA...WILL ONCE AGAIN DIG AND DEEPEN THE TROF ACROSS THE E
EARLY  MID NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER TEMPS
ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THE MOST PART...THESE SYNOPTIC SCALE
FEATURES ARE REASONABLY WELL AGREED UPON...AND THE 18.00Z GFS IS
NOW MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE EARLY WEEK WAVE. THEREFORE...FEEL A BLEND OF
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS A GOOD STARTING POINT.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...

HIGH PRES WILL HOLD FAST ACROSS THE REGION...YIELDING AN INVERTED
RIDGE AS THE CENTER SHIFTS OFFSHORE THANKS TO CONFLUENT ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. FRI NIGHT...WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND NEAR SKC SKIES MAY LEAD
TO ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING IN NW MA AND SW NH VALLEYS FOR FROST
DEVELOPMENT. SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND...MODEST RETURN FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION LEAD
TO INCREASING H85 TEMPS FROM +11C SAT TO +14C SUN.
THEREFORE...HIGHS RANGE IN THE LOW-MID 70S SAT...THEN MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 ON SUN. PWAT VALUES LOOK TOO LOW AT THIS POINT TO
SUPPORT THE LIGHT QPF GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW EACH AFTERNOON...AND
WITH SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE BENEATH THE INVERTED RIDGE...WILL OPT TO
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION AS LOW PRES MOVES
THROUGH SRN ON AND QC. MODEST PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.5 IN...RIGHT
EQUATORWARD REGION OF UPPER LVL JET STREAK AND MODEST LOW LVL
F-GEN ALL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION AS
THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MODELS STARTING TO LINE UP ON
TIMING...MOVING IT THROUGH GENERALLY DURING THE AM HOURS MON. THIS
TIMING WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND SOUNDINGS LOOK
RELATIVELY STABLE...EVEN K VALUES REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW 30.
THEREFORE...SUSPECT MAINLY JUST WIDESPREAD -SHRA ACTIVITY TO MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT LATE DAY
MON. THIS TIMING WILL ALSO KEEP COASTAL LOW PRES OFFSHORE...SO QPF
VALUES SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW A HALF INCH GIVEN CURRENT
THINKING.

TUE INTO THU...

THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW MODERATELY COOL AIRMASS TO BEGIN TO
BUILD IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN FACT...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BY
TUE...546DM THICKNESS VALUES MAY APPROACH THE NW CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND +2C. THEREFORE...UNDER
THE COOL NW FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION...HIGHS TUE MAY STRUGGLE TO
BREAK OUT OF THE 60S...WITH SOME 50S POSSIBLE. GRADUAL MODERATION
IS EXPECTED INTO WED AND THU...BUT WITH TEMPS STILL LEANING
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE HIGH MAY NOT CREST ACROSS THE REGION
UNTIL WED...ONLY MOVING SLIGHTLY E BY THU...SO SUSPECT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN VALLEY FOG THROUGH SUNRISE...OTHERWISE VFR
TODAY WITH SCT-BKN040-060 DEVELOPING AROUND MIDDAY. WEAK COLD
FRONT BRINGS WIND SHIFT TO N/NE ACROSS MOST OF AREA BY LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF SPRINKLE BUT
PROBABLY NOT MUCH MORE THAN THAT AND NOT ENOUGH TO WET RUNWAYS.

CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT. POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FROST ACROSS VALLEYS
OF NW MA AND SW NH. VFR FRI WITH E/NE FLOW.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF...INCLUDING TIMING OF WIND
SHIFT TODAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOME GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE
SAT MORNING AND SUN MORNING AT TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS. WINDS
MAINLY S-SW...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS MON.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY MOVE THROUGH WITH
THIS FRONT. OTHERWISE...IMPROVING BACK TO VFR BY LATE DAY MON.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES WATERS LATER THIS MORNING WITH WIND SHIFT
TO N/NE. SWELL FROM OFFSHORE HURRICANE EDOUARD SHOULD BRING 3-4 FT
SEAS TO OUTER WATERS BUT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA.

SHOULD SEE BRIEF SURGE IN N/NE WINDS TONIGHT AS COOLER AIR ARRIVES...
MAINLY FROM MERRIMACK RIVER TO CAPE COD/ISLANDS WHERE 25KT GUSTS
LIKELY AS SEEN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. SCA BEING POSTED FOR ALL
WATERS EXCEPT BOSTON HARBOR... NARRAGANSETT BAY AND BLOCK ISLAND
SOUND.

WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER
GULF OF MAINE...BUT WILL MAINTAIN SCA FOR OUTER WATERS WHERE SEAS
WILL TAKE TIME TO DROP BELOW 5 FT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...WINDS SWING AROUND TO SOUTHWEST WITH DAYTIME
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS...POSSIBLY NEAR 25 KNOTS SUNDAY. SEAS WILL
REMAIN 2-4 FEET. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY. WEST
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS.  SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER AND EXPOSED WATERS...AS A SOUTH SWELL
INCREASES TO 3-5 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ231>235-251-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...DOODY/JWD
MARINE...DOODY/JWD



000
FXUS61 KBOX 180741
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
341 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...BUT MOISTURE IS
LIMITED SO IT WILL COME THROUGH DRY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING A TOUCH OF
FROST TO THE INTERIOR. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND RESULTING IN A WARMUP. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
305 AM UPDATE...

SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL
REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH SUNRISE. EXPECT PATCHY FOG IN LOW LYING
AREAS DUE TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL BOTTOM
OUT IN 40S AND 50S.

WEAK COLD FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WILL
HEAD SE...CROSSING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH FRONT...SO ONLY EXPECTING A
PERIOD OF CLOUDINESS AS IT MOVES THROUGH ESPECIALLY DUE TO PASSAGE
OF UPPER TROUGH. COULD BE BRIEF SPRINKLE BUT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST
KEEPING FORECAST DRY.

HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN 60S AND LOWER 70S...WHICH IS BLEND OF MOS
GUIDANCE. NAM MOS SEEMS A BIT TOO WARM WITH HIGHS REACHING MID 70S
NEAR S COAST CONSIDERING EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE THIS EVENING FROM N TO S AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASES BEHIND
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL SET STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT AS
LOWS DROP BACK INTO 30S AND 40S...WITH TOUCH OF FROST POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF NW MA AND SW NH. PER COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES THERE ARE A FEW CONCERNS WHICH MAY LIMIT
WIDESPREAD FROST...INCLUDING HOW FAST CLEARING OCCURS AND DO WINDS
DROP OFF ENOUGH TO ALLOW FROST FORMATION. GIVEN THESE CONCERNS WE
WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ADVISORIES AND ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO GET A
BETTER LOOK.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FRI. ONSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH
COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE SHOULD KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS IN 50S ALONG
IMMEDIATE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
LONG RANGE IS LIKELY TO BE DEFINED BY UPPER LVL LONGWAVE TROF AND
ASSOCIATED CUTOFF LOW PRES EXTENDING OUT OVER HUDSON BAY AND
BAFFIN ISLAND. INITIALLY...THIS TROF IS SHUNTED TO THE N OF NEW
ENGLAND...AS MID LVL RIDGE MOVES TO THE E...YIELDING ZONAL FLOW.
THIS IS THE WEEKEND TIMEFRAME...AND THE RISING HEIGHTS AND MODEST
SW LOW LVL FLOW WILL LEAD TO MODERATE WARMING THROUGH SAT AND SUN.
HOWEVER...STRONG COLD SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH CP AIRMASS NEAR
ALASKA...WILL ONCE AGAIN DIG AND DEEPEN THE TROF ACROSS THE E
EARLY  MID NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER TEMPS
ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THE MOST PART...THESE SYNOPTIC SCALE
FEATURES ARE REASONABLY WELL AGREED UPON...AND THE 18.00Z GFS IS
NOW MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE EARLY WEEK WAVE. THEREFORE...FEEL A BLEND OF
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS A GOOD STARTING POINT.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...

HIGH PRES WILL HOLD FAST ACROSS THE REGION...YIELDING AN INVERTED
RIDGE AS THE CENTER SHIFTS OFFSHORE THANKS TO CONFLUENT ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. FRI NIGHT...WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND NEAR SKC SKIES MAY LEAD
TO ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING IN NW MA AND SW NH VALLEYS FOR FROST
DEVELOPMENT. SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND...MODEST RETURN FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION LEAD
TO INCREASING H85 TEMPS FROM +11C SAT TO +14C SUN.
THEREFORE...HIGHS RANGE IN THE LOW-MID 70S SAT...THEN MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 ON SUN. PWAT VALUES LOOK TOO LOW AT THIS POINT TO
SUPPORT THE LIGHT QPF GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW EACH AFTERNOON...AND
WITH SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE BENEATH THE INVERTED RIDGE...WILL OPT TO
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION AS LOW PRES MOVES
THROUGH SRN ON AND QC. MODEST PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.5 IN...RIGHT
EQUATORWARD REGION OF UPPER LVL JET STREAK AND MODEST LOW LVL
F-GEN ALL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION AS
THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MODELS STARTING TO LINE UP ON
TIMING...MOVING IT THROUGH GENERALLY DURING THE AM HOURS MON. THIS
TIMING WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND SOUNDINGS LOOK
RELATIVELY STABLE...EVEN K VALUES REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW 30.
THEREFORE...SUSPECT MAINLY JUST WIDESPREAD -SHRA ACTIVITY TO MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT LATE DAY
MON. THIS TIMING WILL ALSO KEEP COASTAL LOW PRES OFFSHORE...SO QPF
VALUES SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW A HALF INCH GIVEN CURRENT
THINKING.

TUE INTO THU...

THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW MODERATELY COOL AIRMASS TO BEGIN TO
BUILD IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN FACT...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BY
TUE...546DM THICKNESS VALUES MAY APPROACH THE NW CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND +2C. THEREFORE...UNDER
THE COOL NW FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION...HIGHS TUE MAY STRUGGLE TO
BREAK OUT OF THE 60S...WITH SOME 50S POSSIBLE. GRADUAL MODERATION
IS EXPECTED INTO WED AND THU...BUT WITH TEMPS STILL LEANING
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE HIGH MAY NOT CREST ACROSS THE REGION
UNTIL WED...ONLY MOVING SLIGHTLY E BY THU...SO SUSPECT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN VALLEY FOG THROUGH SUNRISE...OTHERWISE VFR
TODAY WITH SCT-BKN040-060 DEVELOPING AROUND MIDDAY. WEAK COLD
FRONT BRINGS WIND SHIFT TO N/NE ACROSS MOST OF AREA BY LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF SPRINKLE BUT
PROBABLY NOT MUCH MORE THAN THAT AND NOT ENOUGH TO WET RUNWAYS.

CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT. POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FROST ACROSS VALLEYS
OF NW MA AND SW NH. VFR FRI WITH E/NE FLOW.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF...INCLUDING TIMING OF WIND
SHIFT TODAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOME GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE
SAT MORNING AND SUN MORNING AT TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS. WINDS
MAINLY S-SW...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS MON.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY MOVE THROUGH WITH
THIS FRONT. OTHERWISE...IMPROVING BACK TO VFR BY LATE DAY MON.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES WATERS LATER THIS MORNING WITH WIND SHIFT
TO N/NE. SWELL FROM OFFSHORE HURRICANE EDOUARD SHOULD BRING 3-4 FT
SEAS TO OUTER WATERS BUT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA.

SHOULD SEE BRIEF SURGE IN N/NE WINDS TONIGHT AS COOLER AIR ARRIVES...
MAINLY FROM MERRIMACK RIVER TO CAPE COD/ISLANDS WHERE 25KT GUSTS
LIKELY AS SEEN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. SCA BEING POSTED FOR ALL
WATERS EXCEPT BOSTON HARBOR... NARRAGANSETT BAY AND BLOCK ISLAND
SOUND.

WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER
GULF OF MAINE...BUT WILL MAINTAIN SCA FOR OUTER WATERS WHERE SEAS
WILL TAKE TIME TO DROP BELOW 5 FT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...WINDS SWING AROUND TO SOUTHWEST WITH DAYTIME
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS...POSSIBLY NEAR 25 KNOTS SUNDAY. SEAS WILL
REMAIN 2-4 FEET. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY. WEST
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS.  SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER AND EXPOSED WATERS...AS A SOUTH SWELL
INCREASES TO 3-5 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.S

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ231>235-251-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...DOODY/JWD
MARINE...DOODY/JWD



000
FXUS61 KBOX 180741
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
341 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...BUT MOISTURE IS
LIMITED SO IT WILL COME THROUGH DRY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING A TOUCH OF
FROST TO THE INTERIOR. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND RESULTING IN A WARMUP. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
305 AM UPDATE...

SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL
REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH SUNRISE. EXPECT PATCHY FOG IN LOW LYING
AREAS DUE TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL BOTTOM
OUT IN 40S AND 50S.

WEAK COLD FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WILL
HEAD SE...CROSSING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH FRONT...SO ONLY EXPECTING A
PERIOD OF CLOUDINESS AS IT MOVES THROUGH ESPECIALLY DUE TO PASSAGE
OF UPPER TROUGH. COULD BE BRIEF SPRINKLE BUT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST
KEEPING FORECAST DRY.

HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN 60S AND LOWER 70S...WHICH IS BLEND OF MOS
GUIDANCE. NAM MOS SEEMS A BIT TOO WARM WITH HIGHS REACHING MID 70S
NEAR S COAST CONSIDERING EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE THIS EVENING FROM N TO S AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASES BEHIND
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL SET STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT AS
LOWS DROP BACK INTO 30S AND 40S...WITH TOUCH OF FROST POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF NW MA AND SW NH. PER COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES THERE ARE A FEW CONCERNS WHICH MAY LIMIT
WIDESPREAD FROST...INCLUDING HOW FAST CLEARING OCCURS AND DO WINDS
DROP OFF ENOUGH TO ALLOW FROST FORMATION. GIVEN THESE CONCERNS WE
WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ADVISORIES AND ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO GET A
BETTER LOOK.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FRI. ONSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH
COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE SHOULD KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS IN 50S ALONG
IMMEDIATE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
LONG RANGE IS LIKELY TO BE DEFINED BY UPPER LVL LONGWAVE TROF AND
ASSOCIATED CUTOFF LOW PRES EXTENDING OUT OVER HUDSON BAY AND
BAFFIN ISLAND. INITIALLY...THIS TROF IS SHUNTED TO THE N OF NEW
ENGLAND...AS MID LVL RIDGE MOVES TO THE E...YIELDING ZONAL FLOW.
THIS IS THE WEEKEND TIMEFRAME...AND THE RISING HEIGHTS AND MODEST
SW LOW LVL FLOW WILL LEAD TO MODERATE WARMING THROUGH SAT AND SUN.
HOWEVER...STRONG COLD SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH CP AIRMASS NEAR
ALASKA...WILL ONCE AGAIN DIG AND DEEPEN THE TROF ACROSS THE E
EARLY  MID NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER TEMPS
ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THE MOST PART...THESE SYNOPTIC SCALE
FEATURES ARE REASONABLY WELL AGREED UPON...AND THE 18.00Z GFS IS
NOW MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE EARLY WEEK WAVE. THEREFORE...FEEL A BLEND OF
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS A GOOD STARTING POINT.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...

HIGH PRES WILL HOLD FAST ACROSS THE REGION...YIELDING AN INVERTED
RIDGE AS THE CENTER SHIFTS OFFSHORE THANKS TO CONFLUENT ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. FRI NIGHT...WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND NEAR SKC SKIES MAY LEAD
TO ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING IN NW MA AND SW NH VALLEYS FOR FROST
DEVELOPMENT. SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND...MODEST RETURN FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION LEAD
TO INCREASING H85 TEMPS FROM +11C SAT TO +14C SUN.
THEREFORE...HIGHS RANGE IN THE LOW-MID 70S SAT...THEN MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 ON SUN. PWAT VALUES LOOK TOO LOW AT THIS POINT TO
SUPPORT THE LIGHT QPF GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW EACH AFTERNOON...AND
WITH SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE BENEATH THE INVERTED RIDGE...WILL OPT TO
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION AS LOW PRES MOVES
THROUGH SRN ON AND QC. MODEST PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.5 IN...RIGHT
EQUATORWARD REGION OF UPPER LVL JET STREAK AND MODEST LOW LVL
F-GEN ALL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION AS
THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MODELS STARTING TO LINE UP ON
TIMING...MOVING IT THROUGH GENERALLY DURING THE AM HOURS MON. THIS
TIMING WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND SOUNDINGS LOOK
RELATIVELY STABLE...EVEN K VALUES REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW 30.
THEREFORE...SUSPECT MAINLY JUST WIDESPREAD -SHRA ACTIVITY TO MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT LATE DAY
MON. THIS TIMING WILL ALSO KEEP COASTAL LOW PRES OFFSHORE...SO QPF
VALUES SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW A HALF INCH GIVEN CURRENT
THINKING.

TUE INTO THU...

THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW MODERATELY COOL AIRMASS TO BEGIN TO
BUILD IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN FACT...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BY
TUE...546DM THICKNESS VALUES MAY APPROACH THE NW CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND +2C. THEREFORE...UNDER
THE COOL NW FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION...HIGHS TUE MAY STRUGGLE TO
BREAK OUT OF THE 60S...WITH SOME 50S POSSIBLE. GRADUAL MODERATION
IS EXPECTED INTO WED AND THU...BUT WITH TEMPS STILL LEANING
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE HIGH MAY NOT CREST ACROSS THE REGION
UNTIL WED...ONLY MOVING SLIGHTLY E BY THU...SO SUSPECT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN VALLEY FOG THROUGH SUNRISE...OTHERWISE VFR
TODAY WITH SCT-BKN040-060 DEVELOPING AROUND MIDDAY. WEAK COLD
FRONT BRINGS WIND SHIFT TO N/NE ACROSS MOST OF AREA BY LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF SPRINKLE BUT
PROBABLY NOT MUCH MORE THAN THAT AND NOT ENOUGH TO WET RUNWAYS.

CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT. POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FROST ACROSS VALLEYS
OF NW MA AND SW NH. VFR FRI WITH E/NE FLOW.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF...INCLUDING TIMING OF WIND
SHIFT TODAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOME GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE
SAT MORNING AND SUN MORNING AT TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS. WINDS
MAINLY S-SW...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS MON.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY MOVE THROUGH WITH
THIS FRONT. OTHERWISE...IMPROVING BACK TO VFR BY LATE DAY MON.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES WATERS LATER THIS MORNING WITH WIND SHIFT
TO N/NE. SWELL FROM OFFSHORE HURRICANE EDOUARD SHOULD BRING 3-4 FT
SEAS TO OUTER WATERS BUT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA.

SHOULD SEE BRIEF SURGE IN N/NE WINDS TONIGHT AS COOLER AIR ARRIVES...
MAINLY FROM MERRIMACK RIVER TO CAPE COD/ISLANDS WHERE 25KT GUSTS
LIKELY AS SEEN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. SCA BEING POSTED FOR ALL
WATERS EXCEPT BOSTON HARBOR... NARRAGANSETT BAY AND BLOCK ISLAND
SOUND.

WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER
GULF OF MAINE...BUT WILL MAINTAIN SCA FOR OUTER WATERS WHERE SEAS
WILL TAKE TIME TO DROP BELOW 5 FT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...WINDS SWING AROUND TO SOUTHWEST WITH DAYTIME
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS...POSSIBLY NEAR 25 KNOTS SUNDAY. SEAS WILL
REMAIN 2-4 FEET. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY. WEST
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS.  SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER AND EXPOSED WATERS...AS A SOUTH SWELL
INCREASES TO 3-5 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.S

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ231>235-251-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...DOODY/JWD
MARINE...DOODY/JWD




000
FXUS61 KBOX 180705
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
305 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...BUT MOISTURE IS
LIMITED SO IT WILL COME THROUGH DRY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING A TOUCH OF
FROST TO THE INTERIOR. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND RESULTING IN A WARMUP. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
305 AM UPDATE...

SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL
REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH SUNRISE. EXPECT PATCHY FOG IN LOW LYING
AREAS DUE TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL BOTTOM
OUT IN 40S AND 50S.

WEAK COLD FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WILL
HEAD SE...CROSSING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH FRONT...SO ONLY EXPECTING A
PERIOD OF CLOUDINESS AS IT MOVES THROUGH ESPECIALLY DUE TO PASSAGE
OF UPPER TROUGH. COULD BE BRIEF SPRINKLE BUT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST
KEEPING FORECAST DRY.

HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN 60S AND LOWER 70S...WHICH IS BLEND OF MOS
GUIDANCE. NAM MOS SEEMS A BIT TOO WARM WITH HIGHS REACHING MID 70S
NEAR S COAST CONSIDERING EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE THIS EVENING FROM N TO S AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASES BEHIND
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL SET STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT AS
LOWS DROP BACK INTO 30S AND 40S...WITH TOUCH OF FROST POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF NW MA AND SW NH. PER COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES THERE ARE A FEW CONCERNS WHICH MAY LIMIT
WIDESPREAD FROST...INCLUDING HOW FAST CLEARING OCCURS AND DO WINDS
DROP OFF ENOUGH TO ALLOW FROST FORMATION. GIVEN THESE CONCERNS WE
WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ADVISORIES AND ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO GET A
BETTER LOOK.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FRI. ONSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH
COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE SHOULD KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS IN 50S ALONG
IMMEDIATE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... ZONAL FLOW FRIDAY WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILDING FROM A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TO A LITTLE ABOVE BY THE NIGHTTIME.  UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN STATES WHILE A SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW DIGS
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
TROUGH THEN MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WOULD BE SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
APPROACHES. EXPECT A WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY
COOLING TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD.

THE DAILIES...

FRIDAY-SATURDAY-SUNDAY... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY MOVES EAST OVER THE MARITIMES DURING THE WEEKEND. THE
RIDGE AXIS HOLDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO SATURDAY...THEN
SHIFTS SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE ECMWF ACTUALLY BRINGS SHOWERS INTO OUR NORTHWEST AREAS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BUT BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW A SIMILAR JET POSITION ENTERING THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY...AND THE GFS IS DRY UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. ADDED TO THIS IS THE
OVERALL DRY PATTERN FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THE PAST FEW WEEKS AND
WHICH FAVORS THE DRIER FORECAST.

TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE FORECAST EQUIV TO A TEMP OF
0-1C AT 850 MB FRIDAY...WARMING TO 10-11C BY SUNDAY.  THIS SUPPORTS
MAX SFC TEMPS UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S FRIDAY...WARMING TO 75-80 SUNDAY.
WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER ARE FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 20 KNOTS
SATURDAY AND 25 KNOTS SUNDAY. WE HAVE BUMPED UP THE MODEL GRIDS TO
REFLECT THESE VALUES.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY... UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND SWINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH
FROPA...BUT WE STAYED CLOSER TO THE GFS. MUCH OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS
TO OUR NORTH BUT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE SOME LIFT.
WE WILL HOLD WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY... UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL MOVE OVERHEAD
TUESDAY AND EAST OF US WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BOTH DAYS.  ENOUGH DESTABILIZING ALOFT AND CLOUD-LEVEL MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT DIURNAL CLOUDS TUESDAY. OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER BOTH DAYS.
TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE 60S BOTH DAYS.
DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S WILL SUPPORT MIN SFC TEMPS IN
THE 40S...POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN VALLEY FOG THROUGH SUNRISE...OTHERWISE VFR
TODAY WITH SCT-BKN040-060 DEVELOPING AROUND MIDDAY. WEAK COLD
FRONT BRINGS WIND SHIFT TO N/NE ACROSS MOST OF AREA BY LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF SPRINKLE BUT
PROBABLY NOT MUCH MORE THAN THAT AND NOT ENOUGH TO WET RUNWAYS.

CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT. POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FROST ACROSS VALLEYS
OF NW MA AND SW NH. VFR FRI WITH E/NE FLOW.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF...INCLUDING TIMING OF WIND
SHIFT TODAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN FOG SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY EARLY MORNINGS. PATCHY MVFR IN SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY MAY GUST TO 20 KNOTS. SOUTHWEST
WINDS SUNDAY MAY GUST 25 KNOTS...POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES WATERS LATER THIS MORNING WITH WIND SHIFT
TO N/NE. SWELL FROM OFFSHORE HURRICANE EDOUARD SHOULD BRING 3-4 FT
SEAS TO OUTER WATERS BUT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA.

SHOULD SEE BRIEF SURGE IN N/NE WINDS TONIGHT AS COOLER AIR ARRIVES...
MAINLY FROM MERRIMACK RIVER TO CAPE COD/ISLANDS WHERE 25KT GUSTS
LIKELY AS SEEN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. SCA BEING POSTED FOR ALL
WATERS EXCEPT BOSTON HARBOR... NARRAGANSETT BAY AND BLOCK ISLAND
SOUND.

WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER
GULF OF MAINE...BUT WILL MAINTAIN SCA FOR OUTER WATERS WHERE SEAS
WILL TAKE TIME TO DROP BELOW 5 FT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...WINDS SWING AROUND TO SOUTHWEST WITH DAYTIME
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS...POSSIBLY NEAR 25 KNOTS SUNDAY. SEAS WILL
REMAIN 2-4 FEET. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY. WEST
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS.  SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER AND EXPOSED WATERS...AS A SOUTH SWELL
INCREASES TO 3-5 FEET.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ231>235-251-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...DOODY/JWD
MARINE...DOODY/JWD




000
FXUS61 KBOX 180705
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
305 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...BUT MOISTURE IS
LIMITED SO IT WILL COME THROUGH DRY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING A TOUCH OF
FROST TO THE INTERIOR. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND RESULTING IN A WARMUP. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
305 AM UPDATE...

SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL
REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH SUNRISE. EXPECT PATCHY FOG IN LOW LYING
AREAS DUE TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL BOTTOM
OUT IN 40S AND 50S.

WEAK COLD FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WILL
HEAD SE...CROSSING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH FRONT...SO ONLY EXPECTING A
PERIOD OF CLOUDINESS AS IT MOVES THROUGH ESPECIALLY DUE TO PASSAGE
OF UPPER TROUGH. COULD BE BRIEF SPRINKLE BUT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST
KEEPING FORECAST DRY.

HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN 60S AND LOWER 70S...WHICH IS BLEND OF MOS
GUIDANCE. NAM MOS SEEMS A BIT TOO WARM WITH HIGHS REACHING MID 70S
NEAR S COAST CONSIDERING EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE THIS EVENING FROM N TO S AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASES BEHIND
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL SET STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT AS
LOWS DROP BACK INTO 30S AND 40S...WITH TOUCH OF FROST POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF NW MA AND SW NH. PER COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES THERE ARE A FEW CONCERNS WHICH MAY LIMIT
WIDESPREAD FROST...INCLUDING HOW FAST CLEARING OCCURS AND DO WINDS
DROP OFF ENOUGH TO ALLOW FROST FORMATION. GIVEN THESE CONCERNS WE
WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ADVISORIES AND ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO GET A
BETTER LOOK.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FRI. ONSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH
COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE SHOULD KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS IN 50S ALONG
IMMEDIATE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... ZONAL FLOW FRIDAY WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILDING FROM A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TO A LITTLE ABOVE BY THE NIGHTTIME.  UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN STATES WHILE A SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW DIGS
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
TROUGH THEN MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WOULD BE SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
APPROACHES. EXPECT A WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY
COOLING TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD.

THE DAILIES...

FRIDAY-SATURDAY-SUNDAY... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY MOVES EAST OVER THE MARITIMES DURING THE WEEKEND. THE
RIDGE AXIS HOLDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO SATURDAY...THEN
SHIFTS SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE ECMWF ACTUALLY BRINGS SHOWERS INTO OUR NORTHWEST AREAS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BUT BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW A SIMILAR JET POSITION ENTERING THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY...AND THE GFS IS DRY UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. ADDED TO THIS IS THE
OVERALL DRY PATTERN FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THE PAST FEW WEEKS AND
WHICH FAVORS THE DRIER FORECAST.

TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE FORECAST EQUIV TO A TEMP OF
0-1C AT 850 MB FRIDAY...WARMING TO 10-11C BY SUNDAY.  THIS SUPPORTS
MAX SFC TEMPS UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S FRIDAY...WARMING TO 75-80 SUNDAY.
WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER ARE FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 20 KNOTS
SATURDAY AND 25 KNOTS SUNDAY. WE HAVE BUMPED UP THE MODEL GRIDS TO
REFLECT THESE VALUES.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY... UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND SWINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH
FROPA...BUT WE STAYED CLOSER TO THE GFS. MUCH OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS
TO OUR NORTH BUT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE SOME LIFT.
WE WILL HOLD WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY... UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL MOVE OVERHEAD
TUESDAY AND EAST OF US WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BOTH DAYS.  ENOUGH DESTABILIZING ALOFT AND CLOUD-LEVEL MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT DIURNAL CLOUDS TUESDAY. OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER BOTH DAYS.
TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE 60S BOTH DAYS.
DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S WILL SUPPORT MIN SFC TEMPS IN
THE 40S...POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN VALLEY FOG THROUGH SUNRISE...OTHERWISE VFR
TODAY WITH SCT-BKN040-060 DEVELOPING AROUND MIDDAY. WEAK COLD
FRONT BRINGS WIND SHIFT TO N/NE ACROSS MOST OF AREA BY LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF SPRINKLE BUT
PROBABLY NOT MUCH MORE THAN THAT AND NOT ENOUGH TO WET RUNWAYS.

CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT. POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FROST ACROSS VALLEYS
OF NW MA AND SW NH. VFR FRI WITH E/NE FLOW.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF...INCLUDING TIMING OF WIND
SHIFT TODAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN FOG SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY EARLY MORNINGS. PATCHY MVFR IN SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY MAY GUST TO 20 KNOTS. SOUTHWEST
WINDS SUNDAY MAY GUST 25 KNOTS...POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES WATERS LATER THIS MORNING WITH WIND SHIFT
TO N/NE. SWELL FROM OFFSHORE HURRICANE EDOUARD SHOULD BRING 3-4 FT
SEAS TO OUTER WATERS BUT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA.

SHOULD SEE BRIEF SURGE IN N/NE WINDS TONIGHT AS COOLER AIR ARRIVES...
MAINLY FROM MERRIMACK RIVER TO CAPE COD/ISLANDS WHERE 25KT GUSTS
LIKELY AS SEEN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. SCA BEING POSTED FOR ALL
WATERS EXCEPT BOSTON HARBOR... NARRAGANSETT BAY AND BLOCK ISLAND
SOUND.

WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER
GULF OF MAINE...BUT WILL MAINTAIN SCA FOR OUTER WATERS WHERE SEAS
WILL TAKE TIME TO DROP BELOW 5 FT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...WINDS SWING AROUND TO SOUTHWEST WITH DAYTIME
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS...POSSIBLY NEAR 25 KNOTS SUNDAY. SEAS WILL
REMAIN 2-4 FEET. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY. WEST
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS.  SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER AND EXPOSED WATERS...AS A SOUTH SWELL
INCREASES TO 3-5 FEET.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ231>235-251-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...DOODY/JWD
MARINE...DOODY/JWD



000
FXUS61 KBOX 180506
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
106 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...BUT MOISTURE IS
LIMITED SO IT WILL COME THROUGH DRY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING A TOUCH OF
FROST TO THE INTERIOR. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND RESULTING IN A WARMUP. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
105 AM UPDATE...

SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL
REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH SUNRISE. EXPECT PATCHY FOG IN LOW LYING
AREAS DUE TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL BOTTOM
OUT IN 40S AND 50S.

WEAK COLD FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WILL
HEAD SE...CROSSING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH FRONT...SO ONLY EXPECTING A
PERIOD OF CLOUDINESS AS IT MOVES THROUGH ESPECIALLY DUE TO PASSAGE
OF UPPER TROUGH. COULD BE BRIEF SPRINKLE BUT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST
KEEPING FORECAST DRY.

HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN 60S AND LOWER 70S...WHICH IS BLEND OF MOS
GUIDANCE. NAM MOS SEEMS A BIT TOO WARM WITH HIGHS REACHING MID 70S
NEAR S COAST CONSIDERING EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE THIS EVENING FROM N TO S AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASES BEHIND
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL SET STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT AS
LOWS DROP BACK INTO 30S AND 40S...WITH TOUCH OF FROST POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF NW MA AND SW NH. WILL EVALUATE NEED FOR FROST
ADVISORIES IN THESE LOCATIONS WITH 4 AM UPDATE AFTER COLLABORATION
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FRI. ONSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH
COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE SHOULD KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS IN 50S ALONG
IMMEDIATE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... ZONAL FLOW FRIDAY WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILDING FROM A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TO A LITTLE ABOVE BY THE NIGHTTIME.  UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN STATES WHILE A SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW DIGS
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
TROUGH THEN MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WOULD BE SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
APPROACHES. EXPECT A WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY
COOLING TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD.

THE DAILIES...

FRIDAY-SATURDAY-SUNDAY... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY MOVES EAST OVER THE MARITIMES DURING THE WEEKEND. THE
RIDGE AXIS HOLDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO SATURDAY...THEN
SHIFTS SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE ECMWF ACTUALLY BRINGS SHOWERS INTO OUR NORTHWEST AREAS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BUT BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW A SIMILAR JET POSITION ENTERING THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY...AND THE GFS IS DRY UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. ADDED TO THIS IS THE
OVERALL DRY PATTERN FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THE PAST FEW WEEKS AND
WHICH FAVORS THE DRIER FORECAST.

TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE FORECAST EQUIV TO A TEMP OF
0-1C AT 850 MB FRIDAY...WARMING TO 10-11C BY SUNDAY.  THIS SUPPORTS
MAX SFC TEMPS UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S FRIDAY...WARMING TO 75-80 SUNDAY.
WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER ARE FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 20 KNOTS
SATURDAY AND 25 KNOTS SUNDAY. WE HAVE BUMPED UP THE MODEL GRIDS TO
REFLECT THESE VALUES.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY... UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND SWINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH
FROPA...BUT WE STAYED CLOSER TO THE GFS. MUCH OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS
TO OUR NORTH BUT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE SOME LIFT.
WE WILL HOLD WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY... UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL MOVE OVERHEAD
TUESDAY AND EAST OF US WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BOTH DAYS.  ENOUGH DESTABILIZING ALOFT AND CLOUD-LEVEL MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT DIURNAL CLOUDS TUESDAY. OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER BOTH DAYS.
TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE 60S BOTH DAYS.
DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S WILL SUPPORT MIN SFC TEMPS IN
THE 40S...POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN VALLEY FOG THROUGH SUNRISE...OTHERWISE VFR
TODAY WITH SCT-BKN040-060 DEVELOPING AROUND MIDDAY. WEAK COLD
FRONT BRINGS WIND SHIFT TO N/NE ACROSS MOST OF AREA BY LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF SPRINKLE BUT
PROBABLY NOT MUCH MORE THAN THAT AND NOT ENOUGH TO WET RUNWAYS.

CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT. POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FROST ACROSS VALLEYS
OF NW MA AND SW NH. VFR FRI WITH E/NE FLOW.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF...INCLUDING TIMING OF WIND
SHIFT TODAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN FOG SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY EARLY MORNINGS. PATCHY MVFR IN SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY MAY GUST TO 20 KNOTS. SOUTHWEST
WINDS SUNDAY MAY GUST 25 KNOTS...POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES WATERS LATER THIS MORNING WITH WIND SHIFT
TO N/NE. SWELL FROM OFFSHORE HURRICANE EDOUARD SHOULD BRING 3-4 FT
SEAS TO OUTER WATERS BUT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA.

SHOULD SEE BRIEF SURGE IN N/NE WINDS TONIGHT AS COOLER AIR ARRIVES...
MAINLY FROM MERRIMACK RIVER TO CAPE COD/ISLANDS WHERE 25KT GUSTS
POSSIBLE. CONSIDERING SCA FOR THESE WATERS WITH 4 AM UPDATE.

WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER
GULF OF MAINE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...WINDS SWING AROUND TO SOUTHWEST WITH DAYTIME
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS...POSSIBLY NEAR 25 KNOTS SUNDAY. SEAS WILL
REMAIN 2-4 FEET. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY. WEST
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS.  SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER AND EXPOSED WATERS...AS A SOUTH SWELL
INCREASES TO 3-5 FEET.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...DOODY/JWD
MARINE...DOODY/JWD



000
FXUS61 KBOX 180506
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
106 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...BUT MOISTURE IS
LIMITED SO IT WILL COME THROUGH DRY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING A TOUCH OF
FROST TO THE INTERIOR. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND RESULTING IN A WARMUP. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
105 AM UPDATE...

SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL
REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH SUNRISE. EXPECT PATCHY FOG IN LOW LYING
AREAS DUE TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL BOTTOM
OUT IN 40S AND 50S.

WEAK COLD FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WILL
HEAD SE...CROSSING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH FRONT...SO ONLY EXPECTING A
PERIOD OF CLOUDINESS AS IT MOVES THROUGH ESPECIALLY DUE TO PASSAGE
OF UPPER TROUGH. COULD BE BRIEF SPRINKLE BUT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST
KEEPING FORECAST DRY.

HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN 60S AND LOWER 70S...WHICH IS BLEND OF MOS
GUIDANCE. NAM MOS SEEMS A BIT TOO WARM WITH HIGHS REACHING MID 70S
NEAR S COAST CONSIDERING EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE THIS EVENING FROM N TO S AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASES BEHIND
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL SET STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT AS
LOWS DROP BACK INTO 30S AND 40S...WITH TOUCH OF FROST POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF NW MA AND SW NH. WILL EVALUATE NEED FOR FROST
ADVISORIES IN THESE LOCATIONS WITH 4 AM UPDATE AFTER COLLABORATION
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FRI. ONSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH
COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE SHOULD KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS IN 50S ALONG
IMMEDIATE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... ZONAL FLOW FRIDAY WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILDING FROM A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TO A LITTLE ABOVE BY THE NIGHTTIME.  UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN STATES WHILE A SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW DIGS
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
TROUGH THEN MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WOULD BE SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
APPROACHES. EXPECT A WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY
COOLING TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD.

THE DAILIES...

FRIDAY-SATURDAY-SUNDAY... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY MOVES EAST OVER THE MARITIMES DURING THE WEEKEND. THE
RIDGE AXIS HOLDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO SATURDAY...THEN
SHIFTS SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE ECMWF ACTUALLY BRINGS SHOWERS INTO OUR NORTHWEST AREAS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BUT BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW A SIMILAR JET POSITION ENTERING THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY...AND THE GFS IS DRY UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. ADDED TO THIS IS THE
OVERALL DRY PATTERN FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THE PAST FEW WEEKS AND
WHICH FAVORS THE DRIER FORECAST.

TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE FORECAST EQUIV TO A TEMP OF
0-1C AT 850 MB FRIDAY...WARMING TO 10-11C BY SUNDAY.  THIS SUPPORTS
MAX SFC TEMPS UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S FRIDAY...WARMING TO 75-80 SUNDAY.
WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER ARE FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 20 KNOTS
SATURDAY AND 25 KNOTS SUNDAY. WE HAVE BUMPED UP THE MODEL GRIDS TO
REFLECT THESE VALUES.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY... UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND SWINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH
FROPA...BUT WE STAYED CLOSER TO THE GFS. MUCH OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS
TO OUR NORTH BUT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE SOME LIFT.
WE WILL HOLD WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY... UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL MOVE OVERHEAD
TUESDAY AND EAST OF US WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BOTH DAYS.  ENOUGH DESTABILIZING ALOFT AND CLOUD-LEVEL MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT DIURNAL CLOUDS TUESDAY. OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER BOTH DAYS.
TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE 60S BOTH DAYS.
DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S WILL SUPPORT MIN SFC TEMPS IN
THE 40S...POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN VALLEY FOG THROUGH SUNRISE...OTHERWISE VFR
TODAY WITH SCT-BKN040-060 DEVELOPING AROUND MIDDAY. WEAK COLD
FRONT BRINGS WIND SHIFT TO N/NE ACROSS MOST OF AREA BY LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF SPRINKLE BUT
PROBABLY NOT MUCH MORE THAN THAT AND NOT ENOUGH TO WET RUNWAYS.

CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT. POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FROST ACROSS VALLEYS
OF NW MA AND SW NH. VFR FRI WITH E/NE FLOW.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF...INCLUDING TIMING OF WIND
SHIFT TODAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN FOG SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY EARLY MORNINGS. PATCHY MVFR IN SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY MAY GUST TO 20 KNOTS. SOUTHWEST
WINDS SUNDAY MAY GUST 25 KNOTS...POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES WATERS LATER THIS MORNING WITH WIND SHIFT
TO N/NE. SWELL FROM OFFSHORE HURRICANE EDOUARD SHOULD BRING 3-4 FT
SEAS TO OUTER WATERS BUT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA.

SHOULD SEE BRIEF SURGE IN N/NE WINDS TONIGHT AS COOLER AIR ARRIVES...
MAINLY FROM MERRIMACK RIVER TO CAPE COD/ISLANDS WHERE 25KT GUSTS
POSSIBLE. CONSIDERING SCA FOR THESE WATERS WITH 4 AM UPDATE.

WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER
GULF OF MAINE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...WINDS SWING AROUND TO SOUTHWEST WITH DAYTIME
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS...POSSIBLY NEAR 25 KNOTS SUNDAY. SEAS WILL
REMAIN 2-4 FEET. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY. WEST
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS.  SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER AND EXPOSED WATERS...AS A SOUTH SWELL
INCREASES TO 3-5 FEET.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...DOODY/JWD
MARINE...DOODY/JWD



000
FXUS61 KBOX 180506
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
106 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...BUT MOISTURE IS
LIMITED SO IT WILL COME THROUGH DRY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING A TOUCH OF
FROST TO THE INTERIOR. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND RESULTING IN A WARMUP. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
105 AM UPDATE...

SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL
REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH SUNRISE. EXPECT PATCHY FOG IN LOW LYING
AREAS DUE TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL BOTTOM
OUT IN 40S AND 50S.

WEAK COLD FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WILL
HEAD SE...CROSSING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH FRONT...SO ONLY EXPECTING A
PERIOD OF CLOUDINESS AS IT MOVES THROUGH ESPECIALLY DUE TO PASSAGE
OF UPPER TROUGH. COULD BE BRIEF SPRINKLE BUT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST
KEEPING FORECAST DRY.

HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN 60S AND LOWER 70S...WHICH IS BLEND OF MOS
GUIDANCE. NAM MOS SEEMS A BIT TOO WARM WITH HIGHS REACHING MID 70S
NEAR S COAST CONSIDERING EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE THIS EVENING FROM N TO S AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASES BEHIND
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL SET STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT AS
LOWS DROP BACK INTO 30S AND 40S...WITH TOUCH OF FROST POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF NW MA AND SW NH. WILL EVALUATE NEED FOR FROST
ADVISORIES IN THESE LOCATIONS WITH 4 AM UPDATE AFTER COLLABORATION
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FRI. ONSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH
COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE SHOULD KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS IN 50S ALONG
IMMEDIATE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... ZONAL FLOW FRIDAY WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILDING FROM A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TO A LITTLE ABOVE BY THE NIGHTTIME.  UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN STATES WHILE A SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW DIGS
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
TROUGH THEN MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WOULD BE SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
APPROACHES. EXPECT A WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY
COOLING TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD.

THE DAILIES...

FRIDAY-SATURDAY-SUNDAY... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY MOVES EAST OVER THE MARITIMES DURING THE WEEKEND. THE
RIDGE AXIS HOLDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO SATURDAY...THEN
SHIFTS SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE ECMWF ACTUALLY BRINGS SHOWERS INTO OUR NORTHWEST AREAS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BUT BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW A SIMILAR JET POSITION ENTERING THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY...AND THE GFS IS DRY UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. ADDED TO THIS IS THE
OVERALL DRY PATTERN FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THE PAST FEW WEEKS AND
WHICH FAVORS THE DRIER FORECAST.

TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE FORECAST EQUIV TO A TEMP OF
0-1C AT 850 MB FRIDAY...WARMING TO 10-11C BY SUNDAY.  THIS SUPPORTS
MAX SFC TEMPS UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S FRIDAY...WARMING TO 75-80 SUNDAY.
WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER ARE FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 20 KNOTS
SATURDAY AND 25 KNOTS SUNDAY. WE HAVE BUMPED UP THE MODEL GRIDS TO
REFLECT THESE VALUES.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY... UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND SWINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH
FROPA...BUT WE STAYED CLOSER TO THE GFS. MUCH OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS
TO OUR NORTH BUT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE SOME LIFT.
WE WILL HOLD WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY... UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL MOVE OVERHEAD
TUESDAY AND EAST OF US WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BOTH DAYS.  ENOUGH DESTABILIZING ALOFT AND CLOUD-LEVEL MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT DIURNAL CLOUDS TUESDAY. OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER BOTH DAYS.
TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE 60S BOTH DAYS.
DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S WILL SUPPORT MIN SFC TEMPS IN
THE 40S...POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN VALLEY FOG THROUGH SUNRISE...OTHERWISE VFR
TODAY WITH SCT-BKN040-060 DEVELOPING AROUND MIDDAY. WEAK COLD
FRONT BRINGS WIND SHIFT TO N/NE ACROSS MOST OF AREA BY LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF SPRINKLE BUT
PROBABLY NOT MUCH MORE THAN THAT AND NOT ENOUGH TO WET RUNWAYS.

CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT. POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FROST ACROSS VALLEYS
OF NW MA AND SW NH. VFR FRI WITH E/NE FLOW.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF...INCLUDING TIMING OF WIND
SHIFT TODAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN FOG SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY EARLY MORNINGS. PATCHY MVFR IN SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY MAY GUST TO 20 KNOTS. SOUTHWEST
WINDS SUNDAY MAY GUST 25 KNOTS...POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES WATERS LATER THIS MORNING WITH WIND SHIFT
TO N/NE. SWELL FROM OFFSHORE HURRICANE EDOUARD SHOULD BRING 3-4 FT
SEAS TO OUTER WATERS BUT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA.

SHOULD SEE BRIEF SURGE IN N/NE WINDS TONIGHT AS COOLER AIR ARRIVES...
MAINLY FROM MERRIMACK RIVER TO CAPE COD/ISLANDS WHERE 25KT GUSTS
POSSIBLE. CONSIDERING SCA FOR THESE WATERS WITH 4 AM UPDATE.

WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER
GULF OF MAINE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...WINDS SWING AROUND TO SOUTHWEST WITH DAYTIME
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS...POSSIBLY NEAR 25 KNOTS SUNDAY. SEAS WILL
REMAIN 2-4 FEET. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY. WEST
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS.  SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER AND EXPOSED WATERS...AS A SOUTH SWELL
INCREASES TO 3-5 FEET.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...DOODY/JWD
MARINE...DOODY/JWD



000
FXUS61 KBOX 180506
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
106 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...BUT MOISTURE IS
LIMITED SO IT WILL COME THROUGH DRY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING A TOUCH OF
FROST TO THE INTERIOR. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND RESULTING IN A WARMUP. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
105 AM UPDATE...

SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL
REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH SUNRISE. EXPECT PATCHY FOG IN LOW LYING
AREAS DUE TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL BOTTOM
OUT IN 40S AND 50S.

WEAK COLD FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WILL
HEAD SE...CROSSING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH FRONT...SO ONLY EXPECTING A
PERIOD OF CLOUDINESS AS IT MOVES THROUGH ESPECIALLY DUE TO PASSAGE
OF UPPER TROUGH. COULD BE BRIEF SPRINKLE BUT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST
KEEPING FORECAST DRY.

HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN 60S AND LOWER 70S...WHICH IS BLEND OF MOS
GUIDANCE. NAM MOS SEEMS A BIT TOO WARM WITH HIGHS REACHING MID 70S
NEAR S COAST CONSIDERING EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE THIS EVENING FROM N TO S AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASES BEHIND
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL SET STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT AS
LOWS DROP BACK INTO 30S AND 40S...WITH TOUCH OF FROST POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF NW MA AND SW NH. WILL EVALUATE NEED FOR FROST
ADVISORIES IN THESE LOCATIONS WITH 4 AM UPDATE AFTER COLLABORATION
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FRI. ONSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH
COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE SHOULD KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS IN 50S ALONG
IMMEDIATE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... ZONAL FLOW FRIDAY WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILDING FROM A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TO A LITTLE ABOVE BY THE NIGHTTIME.  UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN STATES WHILE A SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW DIGS
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
TROUGH THEN MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WOULD BE SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
APPROACHES. EXPECT A WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY
COOLING TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD.

THE DAILIES...

FRIDAY-SATURDAY-SUNDAY... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY MOVES EAST OVER THE MARITIMES DURING THE WEEKEND. THE
RIDGE AXIS HOLDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO SATURDAY...THEN
SHIFTS SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE ECMWF ACTUALLY BRINGS SHOWERS INTO OUR NORTHWEST AREAS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BUT BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW A SIMILAR JET POSITION ENTERING THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY...AND THE GFS IS DRY UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. ADDED TO THIS IS THE
OVERALL DRY PATTERN FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THE PAST FEW WEEKS AND
WHICH FAVORS THE DRIER FORECAST.

TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE FORECAST EQUIV TO A TEMP OF
0-1C AT 850 MB FRIDAY...WARMING TO 10-11C BY SUNDAY.  THIS SUPPORTS
MAX SFC TEMPS UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S FRIDAY...WARMING TO 75-80 SUNDAY.
WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER ARE FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 20 KNOTS
SATURDAY AND 25 KNOTS SUNDAY. WE HAVE BUMPED UP THE MODEL GRIDS TO
REFLECT THESE VALUES.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY... UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND SWINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH
FROPA...BUT WE STAYED CLOSER TO THE GFS. MUCH OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS
TO OUR NORTH BUT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE SOME LIFT.
WE WILL HOLD WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY... UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL MOVE OVERHEAD
TUESDAY AND EAST OF US WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BOTH DAYS.  ENOUGH DESTABILIZING ALOFT AND CLOUD-LEVEL MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT DIURNAL CLOUDS TUESDAY. OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER BOTH DAYS.
TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE 60S BOTH DAYS.
DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S WILL SUPPORT MIN SFC TEMPS IN
THE 40S...POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN VALLEY FOG THROUGH SUNRISE...OTHERWISE VFR
TODAY WITH SCT-BKN040-060 DEVELOPING AROUND MIDDAY. WEAK COLD
FRONT BRINGS WIND SHIFT TO N/NE ACROSS MOST OF AREA BY LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF SPRINKLE BUT
PROBABLY NOT MUCH MORE THAN THAT AND NOT ENOUGH TO WET RUNWAYS.

CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT. POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FROST ACROSS VALLEYS
OF NW MA AND SW NH. VFR FRI WITH E/NE FLOW.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF...INCLUDING TIMING OF WIND
SHIFT TODAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN FOG SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY EARLY MORNINGS. PATCHY MVFR IN SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY MAY GUST TO 20 KNOTS. SOUTHWEST
WINDS SUNDAY MAY GUST 25 KNOTS...POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES WATERS LATER THIS MORNING WITH WIND SHIFT
TO N/NE. SWELL FROM OFFSHORE HURRICANE EDOUARD SHOULD BRING 3-4 FT
SEAS TO OUTER WATERS BUT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA.

SHOULD SEE BRIEF SURGE IN N/NE WINDS TONIGHT AS COOLER AIR ARRIVES...
MAINLY FROM MERRIMACK RIVER TO CAPE COD/ISLANDS WHERE 25KT GUSTS
POSSIBLE. CONSIDERING SCA FOR THESE WATERS WITH 4 AM UPDATE.

WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER
GULF OF MAINE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...WINDS SWING AROUND TO SOUTHWEST WITH DAYTIME
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS...POSSIBLY NEAR 25 KNOTS SUNDAY. SEAS WILL
REMAIN 2-4 FEET. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY. WEST
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS.  SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER AND EXPOSED WATERS...AS A SOUTH SWELL
INCREASES TO 3-5 FEET.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...DOODY/JWD
MARINE...DOODY/JWD



000
FXUS61 KBOX 180131
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
931 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOL AND DRY TONIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...BUT MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS LIMITED. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN SOME AREAS. THE HIGH WILL THEN
SLIP OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND IT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...

WEAK COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING SE FROM ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WILL
BRING SOME PATCHY CLOUDS INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED.

LIGHT OR CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP WELL DOWN INTO 40S ACROSS INTERIOR AND
IN USUAL COLD SPOTS CLOSER TO COAST INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD
AIRPORT...NORWOOD AND TAUNTON. PATCHY VALLEY FOG ALSO APPEARS
LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE DAY...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST.  MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MINIMAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS IT
CROSSES THROUGH OUR AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE INCREASING CLOUDS WITH
DIURNAL CUMULUS...CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO BUT WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER UNDER AN INCH ANY RAIN AMOUNT WOULD BE LIGHT AND
LIKELY BRIEF.  MAIN CONCERN WITH THE FRONT WILL BE USHERING IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
POTENTIAL FOR THE COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WITH THE
COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...CLEARING IS EXPECTED IN THE
EVENING...WITH COLD HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE AREA. DEWPOINTS
SHOULD FALL INTO THE 30S...SO ASSUMING CLEARING OCCURS QUICKLY
ENOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING...TEMPS COULD FALL INTO THE MID
30S IN NW MA/SW NH VALLEYS WHICH MAY REQUIRE FROST ADVISORIES.
ELSEWHERE...STILL A COOL MORNING FRI...UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S
POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... ZONAL FLOW FRIDAY WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILDING FROM A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TO A LITTLE ABOVE BY THE NIGHTTIME.  UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN STATES WHILE A SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW DIGS
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
TROUGH THEN MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WOULD BE SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
APPROACHES. EXPECT A WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY
COOLING TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD.

THE DAILIES...

FRIDAY-SATURDAY-SUNDAY... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY MOVES EAST OVER THE MARITIMES DURING THE WEEKEND. THE
RIDGE AXIS HOLDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO SATURDAY...THEN
SHIFTS SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE ECMWF ACTUALLY BRINGS SHOWERS INTO OUR NORTHWEST AREAS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BUT BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW A SIMILAR JET POSITION ENTERING THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY...AND THE GFS IS DRY UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. ADDED TO THIS IS THE
OVERALL DRY PATTERN FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THE PAST FEW WEEKS AND
WHICH FAVORS THE DRIER FORECAST.

TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE FORECAST EQUIV TO A TEMP OF
0-1C AT 850 MB FRIDAY...WARMING TO 10-11C BY SUNDAY.  THIS SUPPORTS
MAX SFC TEMPS UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S FRIDAY...WARMING TO 75-80 SUNDAY.
WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER ARE FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 20 KNOTS
SATURDAY AND 25 KNOTS SUNDAY. WE HAVE BUMPED UP THE MODEL GRIDS TO
REFLECT THESE VALUES.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY... UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND SWINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH
FROPA...BUT WE STAYED CLOSER TO THE GFS. MUCH OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS
TO OUR NORTH BUT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE SOME LIFT.
WE WILL HOLD WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY... UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL MOVE OVERHEAD
TUESDAY AND EAST OF US WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BOTH DAYS.  ENOUGH DESTABILIZING ALOFT AND CLOUD-LEVEL MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT DIURNAL CLOUDS TUESDAY. OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER BOTH DAYS.
TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE 60S BOTH DAYS.
DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S WILL SUPPORT MIN SFC TEMPS IN
THE 40S...POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA. SCATTERED AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY
FOG/STRATUS LATE TONIGHT OVER THE FAR INTERIOR. VERY ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THURSDAY...ANY RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH
PROBABLE VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE LIGHT SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THRU WED. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN NW WINDS ON WED
BECOMING E/NE DURING THE PM.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN FOG SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY EARLY MORNINGS. PATCHY MVFR IN SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY MAY GUST TO 20 KNOTS. SOUTHWEST
WINDS SUNDAY MAY GUST 25 KNOTS...POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL SLOWLY
BUILD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WITH INCREASING SEAS. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FEET ON THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS FOR A FEW HOURS THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
THIS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO POST HEADLINES.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT SOME GUSTS IN THE LOW 20 KT
RANGE ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS AS WELL. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR SEAS STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY...DIMINISHING NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND LESS THAN 20 KNOTS.
THERE WILL BE SOME 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE EASTERN WATERS FRIDAY MORNING
SUPPORTED BY A 2-3 FOOT SOUTHEAST SWELL...BUT THIS WILL SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PART OF FRIDAY.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...WINDS SWING AROUND TO SOUTHWEST WITH DAYTIME GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS...POSSIBLY NEAR 25 KNOTS SUNDAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN
2-4 FEET. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY. WEST
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS.  SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER AND EXPOSED WATERS...AS A SOUTH SWELL
INCREASES TO 3-5 FEET.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NMB
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...NMB
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/NMB
MARINE...WTB/NMB




000
FXUS61 KBOX 180131
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
931 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOL AND DRY TONIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...BUT MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS LIMITED. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN SOME AREAS. THE HIGH WILL THEN
SLIP OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND IT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...

WEAK COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING SE FROM ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WILL
BRING SOME PATCHY CLOUDS INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED.

LIGHT OR CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP WELL DOWN INTO 40S ACROSS INTERIOR AND
IN USUAL COLD SPOTS CLOSER TO COAST INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD
AIRPORT...NORWOOD AND TAUNTON. PATCHY VALLEY FOG ALSO APPEARS
LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE DAY...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST.  MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MINIMAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS IT
CROSSES THROUGH OUR AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE INCREASING CLOUDS WITH
DIURNAL CUMULUS...CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO BUT WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER UNDER AN INCH ANY RAIN AMOUNT WOULD BE LIGHT AND
LIKELY BRIEF.  MAIN CONCERN WITH THE FRONT WILL BE USHERING IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
POTENTIAL FOR THE COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WITH THE
COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...CLEARING IS EXPECTED IN THE
EVENING...WITH COLD HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE AREA. DEWPOINTS
SHOULD FALL INTO THE 30S...SO ASSUMING CLEARING OCCURS QUICKLY
ENOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING...TEMPS COULD FALL INTO THE MID
30S IN NW MA/SW NH VALLEYS WHICH MAY REQUIRE FROST ADVISORIES.
ELSEWHERE...STILL A COOL MORNING FRI...UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S
POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... ZONAL FLOW FRIDAY WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILDING FROM A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TO A LITTLE ABOVE BY THE NIGHTTIME.  UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN STATES WHILE A SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW DIGS
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
TROUGH THEN MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WOULD BE SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
APPROACHES. EXPECT A WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY
COOLING TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD.

THE DAILIES...

FRIDAY-SATURDAY-SUNDAY... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY MOVES EAST OVER THE MARITIMES DURING THE WEEKEND. THE
RIDGE AXIS HOLDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO SATURDAY...THEN
SHIFTS SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE ECMWF ACTUALLY BRINGS SHOWERS INTO OUR NORTHWEST AREAS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BUT BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW A SIMILAR JET POSITION ENTERING THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY...AND THE GFS IS DRY UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. ADDED TO THIS IS THE
OVERALL DRY PATTERN FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THE PAST FEW WEEKS AND
WHICH FAVORS THE DRIER FORECAST.

TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE FORECAST EQUIV TO A TEMP OF
0-1C AT 850 MB FRIDAY...WARMING TO 10-11C BY SUNDAY.  THIS SUPPORTS
MAX SFC TEMPS UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S FRIDAY...WARMING TO 75-80 SUNDAY.
WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER ARE FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 20 KNOTS
SATURDAY AND 25 KNOTS SUNDAY. WE HAVE BUMPED UP THE MODEL GRIDS TO
REFLECT THESE VALUES.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY... UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND SWINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH
FROPA...BUT WE STAYED CLOSER TO THE GFS. MUCH OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS
TO OUR NORTH BUT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE SOME LIFT.
WE WILL HOLD WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY... UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL MOVE OVERHEAD
TUESDAY AND EAST OF US WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BOTH DAYS.  ENOUGH DESTABILIZING ALOFT AND CLOUD-LEVEL MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT DIURNAL CLOUDS TUESDAY. OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER BOTH DAYS.
TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE 60S BOTH DAYS.
DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S WILL SUPPORT MIN SFC TEMPS IN
THE 40S...POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA. SCATTERED AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY
FOG/STRATUS LATE TONIGHT OVER THE FAR INTERIOR. VERY ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THURSDAY...ANY RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH
PROBABLE VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE LIGHT SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THRU WED. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN NW WINDS ON WED
BECOMING E/NE DURING THE PM.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN FOG SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY EARLY MORNINGS. PATCHY MVFR IN SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY MAY GUST TO 20 KNOTS. SOUTHWEST
WINDS SUNDAY MAY GUST 25 KNOTS...POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL SLOWLY
BUILD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WITH INCREASING SEAS. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FEET ON THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS FOR A FEW HOURS THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
THIS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO POST HEADLINES.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT SOME GUSTS IN THE LOW 20 KT
RANGE ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS AS WELL. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR SEAS STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY...DIMINISHING NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND LESS THAN 20 KNOTS.
THERE WILL BE SOME 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE EASTERN WATERS FRIDAY MORNING
SUPPORTED BY A 2-3 FOOT SOUTHEAST SWELL...BUT THIS WILL SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PART OF FRIDAY.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...WINDS SWING AROUND TO SOUTHWEST WITH DAYTIME GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS...POSSIBLY NEAR 25 KNOTS SUNDAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN
2-4 FEET. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY. WEST
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS.  SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER AND EXPOSED WATERS...AS A SOUTH SWELL
INCREASES TO 3-5 FEET.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NMB
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...NMB
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/NMB
MARINE...WTB/NMB




000
FXUS61 KBOX 180131
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
931 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOL AND DRY TONIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...BUT MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS LIMITED. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN SOME AREAS. THE HIGH WILL THEN
SLIP OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND IT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...

WEAK COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING SE FROM ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WILL
BRING SOME PATCHY CLOUDS INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED.

LIGHT OR CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP WELL DOWN INTO 40S ACROSS INTERIOR AND
IN USUAL COLD SPOTS CLOSER TO COAST INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD
AIRPORT...NORWOOD AND TAUNTON. PATCHY VALLEY FOG ALSO APPEARS
LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE DAY...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST.  MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MINIMAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS IT
CROSSES THROUGH OUR AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE INCREASING CLOUDS WITH
DIURNAL CUMULUS...CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO BUT WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER UNDER AN INCH ANY RAIN AMOUNT WOULD BE LIGHT AND
LIKELY BRIEF.  MAIN CONCERN WITH THE FRONT WILL BE USHERING IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
POTENTIAL FOR THE COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WITH THE
COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...CLEARING IS EXPECTED IN THE
EVENING...WITH COLD HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE AREA. DEWPOINTS
SHOULD FALL INTO THE 30S...SO ASSUMING CLEARING OCCURS QUICKLY
ENOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING...TEMPS COULD FALL INTO THE MID
30S IN NW MA/SW NH VALLEYS WHICH MAY REQUIRE FROST ADVISORIES.
ELSEWHERE...STILL A COOL MORNING FRI...UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S
POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... ZONAL FLOW FRIDAY WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILDING FROM A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TO A LITTLE ABOVE BY THE NIGHTTIME.  UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN STATES WHILE A SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW DIGS
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
TROUGH THEN MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WOULD BE SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
APPROACHES. EXPECT A WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY
COOLING TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD.

THE DAILIES...

FRIDAY-SATURDAY-SUNDAY... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY MOVES EAST OVER THE MARITIMES DURING THE WEEKEND. THE
RIDGE AXIS HOLDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO SATURDAY...THEN
SHIFTS SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE ECMWF ACTUALLY BRINGS SHOWERS INTO OUR NORTHWEST AREAS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BUT BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW A SIMILAR JET POSITION ENTERING THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY...AND THE GFS IS DRY UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. ADDED TO THIS IS THE
OVERALL DRY PATTERN FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THE PAST FEW WEEKS AND
WHICH FAVORS THE DRIER FORECAST.

TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE FORECAST EQUIV TO A TEMP OF
0-1C AT 850 MB FRIDAY...WARMING TO 10-11C BY SUNDAY.  THIS SUPPORTS
MAX SFC TEMPS UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S FRIDAY...WARMING TO 75-80 SUNDAY.
WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER ARE FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 20 KNOTS
SATURDAY AND 25 KNOTS SUNDAY. WE HAVE BUMPED UP THE MODEL GRIDS TO
REFLECT THESE VALUES.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY... UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND SWINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH
FROPA...BUT WE STAYED CLOSER TO THE GFS. MUCH OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS
TO OUR NORTH BUT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE SOME LIFT.
WE WILL HOLD WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY... UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL MOVE OVERHEAD
TUESDAY AND EAST OF US WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BOTH DAYS.  ENOUGH DESTABILIZING ALOFT AND CLOUD-LEVEL MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT DIURNAL CLOUDS TUESDAY. OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER BOTH DAYS.
TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE 60S BOTH DAYS.
DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S WILL SUPPORT MIN SFC TEMPS IN
THE 40S...POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA. SCATTERED AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY
FOG/STRATUS LATE TONIGHT OVER THE FAR INTERIOR. VERY ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THURSDAY...ANY RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH
PROBABLE VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE LIGHT SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THRU WED. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN NW WINDS ON WED
BECOMING E/NE DURING THE PM.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN FOG SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY EARLY MORNINGS. PATCHY MVFR IN SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY MAY GUST TO 20 KNOTS. SOUTHWEST
WINDS SUNDAY MAY GUST 25 KNOTS...POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL SLOWLY
BUILD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WITH INCREASING SEAS. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FEET ON THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS FOR A FEW HOURS THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
THIS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO POST HEADLINES.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT SOME GUSTS IN THE LOW 20 KT
RANGE ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS AS WELL. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR SEAS STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY...DIMINISHING NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND LESS THAN 20 KNOTS.
THERE WILL BE SOME 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE EASTERN WATERS FRIDAY MORNING
SUPPORTED BY A 2-3 FOOT SOUTHEAST SWELL...BUT THIS WILL SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PART OF FRIDAY.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...WINDS SWING AROUND TO SOUTHWEST WITH DAYTIME GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS...POSSIBLY NEAR 25 KNOTS SUNDAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN
2-4 FEET. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY. WEST
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS.  SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER AND EXPOSED WATERS...AS A SOUTH SWELL
INCREASES TO 3-5 FEET.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NMB
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...NMB
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/NMB
MARINE...WTB/NMB




000
FXUS61 KBOX 180131
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
931 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOL AND DRY TONIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...BUT MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS LIMITED. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN SOME AREAS. THE HIGH WILL THEN
SLIP OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND IT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...

WEAK COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING SE FROM ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WILL
BRING SOME PATCHY CLOUDS INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED.

LIGHT OR CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP WELL DOWN INTO 40S ACROSS INTERIOR AND
IN USUAL COLD SPOTS CLOSER TO COAST INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD
AIRPORT...NORWOOD AND TAUNTON. PATCHY VALLEY FOG ALSO APPEARS
LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE DAY...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST.  MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MINIMAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS IT
CROSSES THROUGH OUR AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE INCREASING CLOUDS WITH
DIURNAL CUMULUS...CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO BUT WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER UNDER AN INCH ANY RAIN AMOUNT WOULD BE LIGHT AND
LIKELY BRIEF.  MAIN CONCERN WITH THE FRONT WILL BE USHERING IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
POTENTIAL FOR THE COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WITH THE
COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...CLEARING IS EXPECTED IN THE
EVENING...WITH COLD HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE AREA. DEWPOINTS
SHOULD FALL INTO THE 30S...SO ASSUMING CLEARING OCCURS QUICKLY
ENOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING...TEMPS COULD FALL INTO THE MID
30S IN NW MA/SW NH VALLEYS WHICH MAY REQUIRE FROST ADVISORIES.
ELSEWHERE...STILL A COOL MORNING FRI...UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S
POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... ZONAL FLOW FRIDAY WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILDING FROM A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TO A LITTLE ABOVE BY THE NIGHTTIME.  UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN STATES WHILE A SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW DIGS
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
TROUGH THEN MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WOULD BE SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
APPROACHES. EXPECT A WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY
COOLING TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD.

THE DAILIES...

FRIDAY-SATURDAY-SUNDAY... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY MOVES EAST OVER THE MARITIMES DURING THE WEEKEND. THE
RIDGE AXIS HOLDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO SATURDAY...THEN
SHIFTS SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE ECMWF ACTUALLY BRINGS SHOWERS INTO OUR NORTHWEST AREAS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BUT BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW A SIMILAR JET POSITION ENTERING THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY...AND THE GFS IS DRY UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. ADDED TO THIS IS THE
OVERALL DRY PATTERN FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THE PAST FEW WEEKS AND
WHICH FAVORS THE DRIER FORECAST.

TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE FORECAST EQUIV TO A TEMP OF
0-1C AT 850 MB FRIDAY...WARMING TO 10-11C BY SUNDAY.  THIS SUPPORTS
MAX SFC TEMPS UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S FRIDAY...WARMING TO 75-80 SUNDAY.
WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER ARE FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 20 KNOTS
SATURDAY AND 25 KNOTS SUNDAY. WE HAVE BUMPED UP THE MODEL GRIDS TO
REFLECT THESE VALUES.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY... UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND SWINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH
FROPA...BUT WE STAYED CLOSER TO THE GFS. MUCH OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS
TO OUR NORTH BUT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE SOME LIFT.
WE WILL HOLD WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY... UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL MOVE OVERHEAD
TUESDAY AND EAST OF US WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BOTH DAYS.  ENOUGH DESTABILIZING ALOFT AND CLOUD-LEVEL MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT DIURNAL CLOUDS TUESDAY. OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER BOTH DAYS.
TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE 60S BOTH DAYS.
DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S WILL SUPPORT MIN SFC TEMPS IN
THE 40S...POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA. SCATTERED AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY
FOG/STRATUS LATE TONIGHT OVER THE FAR INTERIOR. VERY ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THURSDAY...ANY RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH
PROBABLE VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE LIGHT SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THRU WED. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN NW WINDS ON WED
BECOMING E/NE DURING THE PM.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN FOG SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY EARLY MORNINGS. PATCHY MVFR IN SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY MAY GUST TO 20 KNOTS. SOUTHWEST
WINDS SUNDAY MAY GUST 25 KNOTS...POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL SLOWLY
BUILD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WITH INCREASING SEAS. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FEET ON THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS FOR A FEW HOURS THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
THIS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO POST HEADLINES.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT SOME GUSTS IN THE LOW 20 KT
RANGE ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS AS WELL. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR SEAS STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY...DIMINISHING NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND LESS THAN 20 KNOTS.
THERE WILL BE SOME 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE EASTERN WATERS FRIDAY MORNING
SUPPORTED BY A 2-3 FOOT SOUTHEAST SWELL...BUT THIS WILL SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PART OF FRIDAY.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...WINDS SWING AROUND TO SOUTHWEST WITH DAYTIME GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS...POSSIBLY NEAR 25 KNOTS SUNDAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN
2-4 FEET. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY. WEST
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS.  SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER AND EXPOSED WATERS...AS A SOUTH SWELL
INCREASES TO 3-5 FEET.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NMB
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...NMB
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/NMB
MARINE...WTB/NMB




000
FXUS61 KBOX 172254
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
654 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOL AND DRY TONIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...BUT MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS LIMITED. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN SOME AREAS. THE HIGH WILL THEN
SLIP OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND IT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

7 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE WHILE MAINTAINING CLEAR SKIES AND
DRY CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS FROM THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE PORTION OF THIS FRONT UPSTREAM OF OUR
AREA HAS LIMITED MOISTURE...SO AT MOST WE EXPECT AN INCREASE OF
CLOUDS AFTER 2 AM MOSTLY IN WESTERN MASS/SOUTHERN NH.

NEAR CALM WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 40S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND IN TRADITIONAL
COLD SPOTS SUCH AS MARTHAS VINEYARD AIRPORT. REMAINING LOCATIONS
WILL HAVE TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE DAY...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST.  MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MINIMAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS IT
CROSSES THROUGH OUR AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE INCREASING CLOUDS WITH
DIURNAL CUMULUS...CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO BUT WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER UNDER AN INCH ANY RAIN AMOUNT WOULD BE LIGHT AND
LIKELY BRIEF.  MAIN CONCERN WITH THE FRONT WILL BE USHERING IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
POTENTIAL FOR THE COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WITH THE
COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...CLEARING IS EXPECTED IN THE
EVENING...WITH COLD HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE AREA. DEWPOINTS
SHOULD FALL INTO THE 30S...SO ASSUMING CLEARING OCCURS QUICKLY
ENOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING...TEMPS COULD FALL INTO THE MID
30S IN NW MA/SW NH VALLEYS WHICH MAY REQUIRE FROST ADVISORIES.
ELSEWHERE...STILL A COOL MORNING FRI...UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S
POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... ZONAL FLOW FRIDAY WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILDING FROM A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TO A LITTLE ABOVE BY THE NIGHTTIME.  UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN STATES WHILE A SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW DIGS
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
TROUGH THEN MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WOULD BE SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
APPROACHES. EXPECT A WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY
COOLING TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD.

THE DAILIES...

FRIDAY-SATURDAY-SUNDAY... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY MOVES EAST OVER THE MARITIMES DURING THE WEEKEND. THE
RIDGE AXIS HOLDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO SATURDAY...THEN
SHIFTS SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE ECMWF ACTUALLY BRINGS SHOWERS INTO OUR NORTHWEST AREAS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BUT BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW A SIMILAR JET POSITION ENTERING THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY...AND THE GFS IS DRY UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. ADDED TO THIS IS THE
OVERALL DRY PATTERN FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THE PAST FEW WEEKS AND
WHICH FAVORS THE DRIER FORECAST.

TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE FORECAST EQUIV TO A TEMP OF
0-1C AT 850 MB FRIDAY...WARMING TO 10-11C BY SUNDAY.  THIS SUPPORTS
MAX SFC TEMPS UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S FRIDAY...WARMING TO 75-80 SUNDAY.
WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER ARE FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 20 KNOTS
SATURDAY AND 25 KNOTS SUNDAY. WE HAVE BUMPED UP THE MODEL GRIDS TO
REFLECT THESE VALUES.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY... UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND SWINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH
FROPA...BUT WE STAYED CLOSER TO THE GFS. MUCH OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS
TO OUR NORTH BUT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE SOME LIFT.
WE WILL HOLD WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY... UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL MOVE OVERHEAD
TUESDAY AND EAST OF US WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BOTH DAYS.  ENOUGH DESTABILIZING ALOFT AND CLOUD-LEVEL MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT DIURNAL CLOUDS TUESDAY. OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER BOTH DAYS.
TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE 60S BOTH DAYS.
DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S WILL SUPPORT MIN SFC TEMPS IN
THE 40S...POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA. SCATTERED AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY
FOG/STRATUS LATE TONIGHT OVER THE FAR INTERIOR. VERY ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THURSDAY...ANY RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH
PROBABLE VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE LIGHT SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THRU WED. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN NW WINDS ON WED
BECOMING E/NE DURING THE PM.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN FOG SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY EARLY MORNINGS. PATCHY MVFR IN SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY MAY GUST TO 20 KNOTS. SOUTHWEST
WINDS SUNDAY MAY GUST 25 KNOTS...POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL SLOWLY
BUILD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WITH INCREASING SEAS. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FEET ON THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS FOR A FEW HOURS THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
THIS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO POST HEADLINES.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT SOME GUSTS IN THE LOW 20 KT
RANGE ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS AS WELL. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR SEAS STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY...DIMINISHING NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND LESS THAN 20 KNOTS.
THERE WILL BE SOME 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE EASTERN WATERS FRIDAY MORNING
SUPPORTED BY A 2-3 FOOT SOUTHEAST SWELL...BUT THIS WILL SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PART OF FRIDAY.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...WINDS SWING AROUND TO SOUTHWEST WITH DAYTIME GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS...POSSIBLY NEAR 25 KNOTS SUNDAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN
2-4 FEET. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY. WEST
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS.  SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER AND EXPOSED WATERS...AS A SOUTH SWELL
INCREASES TO 3-5 FEET.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NMB
NEAR TERM...WTB/NMB
SHORT TERM...NMB
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/NMB
MARINE...WTB/NMB



000
FXUS61 KBOX 172254
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
654 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOL AND DRY TONIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...BUT MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS LIMITED. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN SOME AREAS. THE HIGH WILL THEN
SLIP OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND IT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

7 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE WHILE MAINTAINING CLEAR SKIES AND
DRY CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS FROM THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE PORTION OF THIS FRONT UPSTREAM OF OUR
AREA HAS LIMITED MOISTURE...SO AT MOST WE EXPECT AN INCREASE OF
CLOUDS AFTER 2 AM MOSTLY IN WESTERN MASS/SOUTHERN NH.

NEAR CALM WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 40S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND IN TRADITIONAL
COLD SPOTS SUCH AS MARTHAS VINEYARD AIRPORT. REMAINING LOCATIONS
WILL HAVE TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE DAY...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST.  MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MINIMAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS IT
CROSSES THROUGH OUR AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE INCREASING CLOUDS WITH
DIURNAL CUMULUS...CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO BUT WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER UNDER AN INCH ANY RAIN AMOUNT WOULD BE LIGHT AND
LIKELY BRIEF.  MAIN CONCERN WITH THE FRONT WILL BE USHERING IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
POTENTIAL FOR THE COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WITH THE
COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...CLEARING IS EXPECTED IN THE
EVENING...WITH COLD HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE AREA. DEWPOINTS
SHOULD FALL INTO THE 30S...SO ASSUMING CLEARING OCCURS QUICKLY
ENOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING...TEMPS COULD FALL INTO THE MID
30S IN NW MA/SW NH VALLEYS WHICH MAY REQUIRE FROST ADVISORIES.
ELSEWHERE...STILL A COOL MORNING FRI...UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S
POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... ZONAL FLOW FRIDAY WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILDING FROM A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TO A LITTLE ABOVE BY THE NIGHTTIME.  UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN STATES WHILE A SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW DIGS
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
TROUGH THEN MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WOULD BE SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
APPROACHES. EXPECT A WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY
COOLING TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD.

THE DAILIES...

FRIDAY-SATURDAY-SUNDAY... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY MOVES EAST OVER THE MARITIMES DURING THE WEEKEND. THE
RIDGE AXIS HOLDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO SATURDAY...THEN
SHIFTS SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE ECMWF ACTUALLY BRINGS SHOWERS INTO OUR NORTHWEST AREAS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BUT BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW A SIMILAR JET POSITION ENTERING THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY...AND THE GFS IS DRY UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. ADDED TO THIS IS THE
OVERALL DRY PATTERN FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THE PAST FEW WEEKS AND
WHICH FAVORS THE DRIER FORECAST.

TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE FORECAST EQUIV TO A TEMP OF
0-1C AT 850 MB FRIDAY...WARMING TO 10-11C BY SUNDAY.  THIS SUPPORTS
MAX SFC TEMPS UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S FRIDAY...WARMING TO 75-80 SUNDAY.
WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER ARE FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 20 KNOTS
SATURDAY AND 25 KNOTS SUNDAY. WE HAVE BUMPED UP THE MODEL GRIDS TO
REFLECT THESE VALUES.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY... UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND SWINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH
FROPA...BUT WE STAYED CLOSER TO THE GFS. MUCH OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS
TO OUR NORTH BUT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE SOME LIFT.
WE WILL HOLD WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY... UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL MOVE OVERHEAD
TUESDAY AND EAST OF US WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BOTH DAYS.  ENOUGH DESTABILIZING ALOFT AND CLOUD-LEVEL MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT DIURNAL CLOUDS TUESDAY. OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER BOTH DAYS.
TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE 60S BOTH DAYS.
DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S WILL SUPPORT MIN SFC TEMPS IN
THE 40S...POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA. SCATTERED AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY
FOG/STRATUS LATE TONIGHT OVER THE FAR INTERIOR. VERY ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THURSDAY...ANY RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH
PROBABLE VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE LIGHT SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THRU WED. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN NW WINDS ON WED
BECOMING E/NE DURING THE PM.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN FOG SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY EARLY MORNINGS. PATCHY MVFR IN SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY MAY GUST TO 20 KNOTS. SOUTHWEST
WINDS SUNDAY MAY GUST 25 KNOTS...POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL SLOWLY
BUILD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WITH INCREASING SEAS. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FEET ON THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS FOR A FEW HOURS THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
THIS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO POST HEADLINES.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT SOME GUSTS IN THE LOW 20 KT
RANGE ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS AS WELL. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR SEAS STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY...DIMINISHING NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND LESS THAN 20 KNOTS.
THERE WILL BE SOME 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE EASTERN WATERS FRIDAY MORNING
SUPPORTED BY A 2-3 FOOT SOUTHEAST SWELL...BUT THIS WILL SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PART OF FRIDAY.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...WINDS SWING AROUND TO SOUTHWEST WITH DAYTIME GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS...POSSIBLY NEAR 25 KNOTS SUNDAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN
2-4 FEET. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY. WEST
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS.  SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER AND EXPOSED WATERS...AS A SOUTH SWELL
INCREASES TO 3-5 FEET.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NMB
NEAR TERM...WTB/NMB
SHORT TERM...NMB
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/NMB
MARINE...WTB/NMB




000
FXUS61 KBOX 172019
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
419 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOL AND DRY TONIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...BUT MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS LIMITED. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN SOME AREAS. THE HIGH WILL THEN
SLIP OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND IT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY/...

415 PM UPDATE...
IURNAL CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING
LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE LOSES ITS INFLUENCE
SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST...STEMMING FROM A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA. HOWEVER AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AS IT PERTAINS TO OUR
AREA...MOISTURE INCREASE IS MINIMAL OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT FOR
TONIGHT EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE OVER THE FAR INTERIOR. LIGHT TO NEAR CALM
WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. PATCHY VALLEY
FOG IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

THURSDAY...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE DAY...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST.  MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MINIMAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS IT
CROSSES THROUGH OUR AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE INCREASING CLOUDS WITH
DIURNAL CUMULUS...CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO BUT WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER UNDER AN INCH ANY RAIN AMOUNT WOULD BE LIGHT AND
LIKELY BRIEF.  MAIN CONCERN WITH THE FRONT WILL BE USHERING IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
POTENTIAL FOR THE COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WITH THE
COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...CLEARING IS EXPECTED IN THE
EVENING...WITH COLD HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE AREA. DEWPOINTS
SHOULD FALL INTO THE 30S...SO ASSUMING CLEARING OCCURS QUICKLY
ENOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING...TEMPS COULD FALL INTO THE MID
30S IN NW MA/SW NH VALLEYS WHICH MAY REQUIRE FROST ADVISORIES.
ELSEWHERE...STILL A COOL MORNING FRI...UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S
POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... ZONAL FLOW FRIDAY WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILDING FROM A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TO A LITTLE ABOVE BY THE NIGHTTIME.  UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN STATES WHILE A SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW DIGS
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
TROUGH THEN MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WOULD BE SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
APPROACHES. EXPECT A WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY
COOLING TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD.

THE DAILIES...

FRIDAY-SATURDAY-SUNDAY... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY MOVES EAST OVER THE MARITIMES DURING THE WEEKEND. THE
RIDGE AXIS HOLDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO SATURDAY...THEN
SHIFTS SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE ECMWF ACTUALLY BRINGS SHOWERS INTO OUR NORTHWEST AREAS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BUT BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW A SIMILAR JET POSITION ENTERING THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY...AND THE GFS IS DRY UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. ADDED TO THIS IS THE
OVERALL DRY PATTERN FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THE PAST FEW WEEKS AND
WHICH FAVORS THE DRIER FORECAST.

TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE FORECAST EQUIV TO A TEMP OF
0-1C AT 850 MB FRIDAY...WARMING TO 10-11C BY SUNDAY.  THIS SUPPORTS
MAX SFC TEMPS UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S FRIDAY...WARMING TO 75-80 SUNDAY.
WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER ARE FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 20 KNOTS
SATURDAY AND 25 KNOTS SUNDAY. WE HAVE BUMPED UP THE MODEL GRIDS TO
REFLECT THESE VALUES.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY... UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND SWINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH
FROPA...BUT WE STAYED CLOSER TO THE GFS. MUCH OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS
TO OUR NORTH BUT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE SOME LIFT.
WE WILL HOLD WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY... UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL MOVE OVERHEAD
TUESDAY AND EAST OF US WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BOTH DAYS.  ENOUGH DESTABILIZING ALOFT AND CLOUD-LEVEL MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT DIURNAL CLOUDS TUESDAY. OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER BOTH DAYS.
TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE 60S BOTH DAYS.
DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S WILL SUPPORT MIN SFC TEMPS IN
THE 40S...POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG/STRATUS LATE TONIGHT OVER THE FAR
INTERIOR. VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THURSDAY...ANY RAIN
SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH PROBABLE VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE LIGHT
SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH TONIGHT AND VFR
CONDITIONS THRU WED. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN NW WINDS ON WED BECOMING
E/NE DURING THE PM.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN FOG SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY EARLY MORNINGS. PATCHY MVFR IN SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY MAY GUST TO 20 KNOTS. SOUTHWEST
WINDS SUNDAY MAY GUST 25 KNOTS...POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL SLOWLY
BUILD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WITH INCREASING SEAS. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FEET ON THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS FOR A FEW HOURS THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
THIS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO POST HEADLINES.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT SOME GUSTS IN THE LOW 20 KT
RANGE ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS AS WELL. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR SEAS STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY...DIMINISHING NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND LESS THAN 20 KNOTS.
THERE WILL BE SOME 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE EASTERN WATERS FRIDAY MORNING
SUPPORTED BY A 2-3 FOOT SOUTHEAST SWELL...BUT THIS WILL SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PART OF FRIDAY.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...WINDS SWING AROUND TO SOUTHWEST WITH DAYTIME GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS...POSSIBLY NEAR 25 KNOTS SUNDAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN
2-4 FEET. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY. WEST
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS.  SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER AND EXPOSED WATERS...AS A SOUTH SWELL
INCREASES TO 3-5 FEET.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NMB
NEAR TERM...NMB
SHORT TERM...NMB
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/NMB
MARINE...WTB/NMB




000
FXUS61 KBOX 172019
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
419 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOL AND DRY TONIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...BUT MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS LIMITED. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN SOME AREAS. THE HIGH WILL THEN
SLIP OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND IT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY/...

415 PM UPDATE...
IURNAL CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING
LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE LOSES ITS INFLUENCE
SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST...STEMMING FROM A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA. HOWEVER AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AS IT PERTAINS TO OUR
AREA...MOISTURE INCREASE IS MINIMAL OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT FOR
TONIGHT EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE OVER THE FAR INTERIOR. LIGHT TO NEAR CALM
WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. PATCHY VALLEY
FOG IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

THURSDAY...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE DAY...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST.  MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MINIMAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS IT
CROSSES THROUGH OUR AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE INCREASING CLOUDS WITH
DIURNAL CUMULUS...CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO BUT WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER UNDER AN INCH ANY RAIN AMOUNT WOULD BE LIGHT AND
LIKELY BRIEF.  MAIN CONCERN WITH THE FRONT WILL BE USHERING IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
POTENTIAL FOR THE COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WITH THE
COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...CLEARING IS EXPECTED IN THE
EVENING...WITH COLD HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE AREA. DEWPOINTS
SHOULD FALL INTO THE 30S...SO ASSUMING CLEARING OCCURS QUICKLY
ENOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING...TEMPS COULD FALL INTO THE MID
30S IN NW MA/SW NH VALLEYS WHICH MAY REQUIRE FROST ADVISORIES.
ELSEWHERE...STILL A COOL MORNING FRI...UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S
POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... ZONAL FLOW FRIDAY WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILDING FROM A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TO A LITTLE ABOVE BY THE NIGHTTIME.  UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN STATES WHILE A SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW DIGS
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
TROUGH THEN MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WOULD BE SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
APPROACHES. EXPECT A WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY
COOLING TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD.

THE DAILIES...

FRIDAY-SATURDAY-SUNDAY... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY MOVES EAST OVER THE MARITIMES DURING THE WEEKEND. THE
RIDGE AXIS HOLDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO SATURDAY...THEN
SHIFTS SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE ECMWF ACTUALLY BRINGS SHOWERS INTO OUR NORTHWEST AREAS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BUT BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW A SIMILAR JET POSITION ENTERING THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY...AND THE GFS IS DRY UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. ADDED TO THIS IS THE
OVERALL DRY PATTERN FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THE PAST FEW WEEKS AND
WHICH FAVORS THE DRIER FORECAST.

TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE FORECAST EQUIV TO A TEMP OF
0-1C AT 850 MB FRIDAY...WARMING TO 10-11C BY SUNDAY.  THIS SUPPORTS
MAX SFC TEMPS UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S FRIDAY...WARMING TO 75-80 SUNDAY.
WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER ARE FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 20 KNOTS
SATURDAY AND 25 KNOTS SUNDAY. WE HAVE BUMPED UP THE MODEL GRIDS TO
REFLECT THESE VALUES.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY... UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND SWINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH
FROPA...BUT WE STAYED CLOSER TO THE GFS. MUCH OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS
TO OUR NORTH BUT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE SOME LIFT.
WE WILL HOLD WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY... UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL MOVE OVERHEAD
TUESDAY AND EAST OF US WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BOTH DAYS.  ENOUGH DESTABILIZING ALOFT AND CLOUD-LEVEL MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT DIURNAL CLOUDS TUESDAY. OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER BOTH DAYS.
TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE 60S BOTH DAYS.
DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S WILL SUPPORT MIN SFC TEMPS IN
THE 40S...POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG/STRATUS LATE TONIGHT OVER THE FAR
INTERIOR. VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THURSDAY...ANY RAIN
SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH PROBABLE VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE LIGHT
SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH TONIGHT AND VFR
CONDITIONS THRU WED. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN NW WINDS ON WED BECOMING
E/NE DURING THE PM.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN FOG SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY EARLY MORNINGS. PATCHY MVFR IN SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY MAY GUST TO 20 KNOTS. SOUTHWEST
WINDS SUNDAY MAY GUST 25 KNOTS...POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL SLOWLY
BUILD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WITH INCREASING SEAS. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FEET ON THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS FOR A FEW HOURS THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
THIS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO POST HEADLINES.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT SOME GUSTS IN THE LOW 20 KT
RANGE ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS AS WELL. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR SEAS STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY...DIMINISHING NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND LESS THAN 20 KNOTS.
THERE WILL BE SOME 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE EASTERN WATERS FRIDAY MORNING
SUPPORTED BY A 2-3 FOOT SOUTHEAST SWELL...BUT THIS WILL SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PART OF FRIDAY.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...WINDS SWING AROUND TO SOUTHWEST WITH DAYTIME GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS...POSSIBLY NEAR 25 KNOTS SUNDAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN
2-4 FEET. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY. WEST
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS.  SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER AND EXPOSED WATERS...AS A SOUTH SWELL
INCREASES TO 3-5 FEET.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NMB
NEAR TERM...NMB
SHORT TERM...NMB
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/NMB
MARINE...WTB/NMB




000
FXUS61 KBOX 172019
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
419 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOL AND DRY TONIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...BUT MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS LIMITED. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN SOME AREAS. THE HIGH WILL THEN
SLIP OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND IT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY/...

415 PM UPDATE...
IURNAL CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING
LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE LOSES ITS INFLUENCE
SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST...STEMMING FROM A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA. HOWEVER AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AS IT PERTAINS TO OUR
AREA...MOISTURE INCREASE IS MINIMAL OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT FOR
TONIGHT EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE OVER THE FAR INTERIOR. LIGHT TO NEAR CALM
WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. PATCHY VALLEY
FOG IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

THURSDAY...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE DAY...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST.  MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MINIMAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS IT
CROSSES THROUGH OUR AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE INCREASING CLOUDS WITH
DIURNAL CUMULUS...CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO BUT WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER UNDER AN INCH ANY RAIN AMOUNT WOULD BE LIGHT AND
LIKELY BRIEF.  MAIN CONCERN WITH THE FRONT WILL BE USHERING IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
POTENTIAL FOR THE COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WITH THE
COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...CLEARING IS EXPECTED IN THE
EVENING...WITH COLD HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE AREA. DEWPOINTS
SHOULD FALL INTO THE 30S...SO ASSUMING CLEARING OCCURS QUICKLY
ENOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING...TEMPS COULD FALL INTO THE MID
30S IN NW MA/SW NH VALLEYS WHICH MAY REQUIRE FROST ADVISORIES.
ELSEWHERE...STILL A COOL MORNING FRI...UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S
POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... ZONAL FLOW FRIDAY WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILDING FROM A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TO A LITTLE ABOVE BY THE NIGHTTIME.  UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN STATES WHILE A SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW DIGS
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
TROUGH THEN MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WOULD BE SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
APPROACHES. EXPECT A WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY
COOLING TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD.

THE DAILIES...

FRIDAY-SATURDAY-SUNDAY... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY MOVES EAST OVER THE MARITIMES DURING THE WEEKEND. THE
RIDGE AXIS HOLDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO SATURDAY...THEN
SHIFTS SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE ECMWF ACTUALLY BRINGS SHOWERS INTO OUR NORTHWEST AREAS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BUT BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW A SIMILAR JET POSITION ENTERING THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY...AND THE GFS IS DRY UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. ADDED TO THIS IS THE
OVERALL DRY PATTERN FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THE PAST FEW WEEKS AND
WHICH FAVORS THE DRIER FORECAST.

TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE FORECAST EQUIV TO A TEMP OF
0-1C AT 850 MB FRIDAY...WARMING TO 10-11C BY SUNDAY.  THIS SUPPORTS
MAX SFC TEMPS UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S FRIDAY...WARMING TO 75-80 SUNDAY.
WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER ARE FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 20 KNOTS
SATURDAY AND 25 KNOTS SUNDAY. WE HAVE BUMPED UP THE MODEL GRIDS TO
REFLECT THESE VALUES.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY... UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND SWINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH
FROPA...BUT WE STAYED CLOSER TO THE GFS. MUCH OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS
TO OUR NORTH BUT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE SOME LIFT.
WE WILL HOLD WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY... UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL MOVE OVERHEAD
TUESDAY AND EAST OF US WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BOTH DAYS.  ENOUGH DESTABILIZING ALOFT AND CLOUD-LEVEL MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT DIURNAL CLOUDS TUESDAY. OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER BOTH DAYS.
TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE 60S BOTH DAYS.
DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S WILL SUPPORT MIN SFC TEMPS IN
THE 40S...POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG/STRATUS LATE TONIGHT OVER THE FAR
INTERIOR. VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THURSDAY...ANY RAIN
SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH PROBABLE VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE LIGHT
SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH TONIGHT AND VFR
CONDITIONS THRU WED. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN NW WINDS ON WED BECOMING
E/NE DURING THE PM.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN FOG SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY EARLY MORNINGS. PATCHY MVFR IN SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY MAY GUST TO 20 KNOTS. SOUTHWEST
WINDS SUNDAY MAY GUST 25 KNOTS...POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL SLOWLY
BUILD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WITH INCREASING SEAS. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FEET ON THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS FOR A FEW HOURS THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
THIS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO POST HEADLINES.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT SOME GUSTS IN THE LOW 20 KT
RANGE ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS AS WELL. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR SEAS STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY...DIMINISHING NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND LESS THAN 20 KNOTS.
THERE WILL BE SOME 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE EASTERN WATERS FRIDAY MORNING
SUPPORTED BY A 2-3 FOOT SOUTHEAST SWELL...BUT THIS WILL SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PART OF FRIDAY.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...WINDS SWING AROUND TO SOUTHWEST WITH DAYTIME GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS...POSSIBLY NEAR 25 KNOTS SUNDAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN
2-4 FEET. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY. WEST
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS.  SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER AND EXPOSED WATERS...AS A SOUTH SWELL
INCREASES TO 3-5 FEET.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NMB
NEAR TERM...NMB
SHORT TERM...NMB
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/NMB
MARINE...WTB/NMB




000
FXUS61 KBOX 172019
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
419 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOL AND DRY TONIGHT. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...BUT MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS LIMITED. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SOME FROST IS
POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN SOME AREAS. THE HIGH WILL THEN
SLIP OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND IT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY/...

415 PM UPDATE...
IURNAL CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING
LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE LOSES ITS INFLUENCE
SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST...STEMMING FROM A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA. HOWEVER AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AS IT PERTAINS TO OUR
AREA...MOISTURE INCREASE IS MINIMAL OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT FOR
TONIGHT EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE OVER THE FAR INTERIOR. LIGHT TO NEAR CALM
WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. PATCHY VALLEY
FOG IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

THURSDAY...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE DAY...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST.  MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MINIMAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS IT
CROSSES THROUGH OUR AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE INCREASING CLOUDS WITH
DIURNAL CUMULUS...CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO BUT WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER UNDER AN INCH ANY RAIN AMOUNT WOULD BE LIGHT AND
LIKELY BRIEF.  MAIN CONCERN WITH THE FRONT WILL BE USHERING IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
POTENTIAL FOR THE COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WITH THE
COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...CLEARING IS EXPECTED IN THE
EVENING...WITH COLD HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE AREA. DEWPOINTS
SHOULD FALL INTO THE 30S...SO ASSUMING CLEARING OCCURS QUICKLY
ENOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING...TEMPS COULD FALL INTO THE MID
30S IN NW MA/SW NH VALLEYS WHICH MAY REQUIRE FROST ADVISORIES.
ELSEWHERE...STILL A COOL MORNING FRI...UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S
POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... ZONAL FLOW FRIDAY WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILDING FROM A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TO A LITTLE ABOVE BY THE NIGHTTIME.  UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN STATES WHILE A SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW DIGS
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
TROUGH THEN MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WOULD BE SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
APPROACHES. EXPECT A WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY
COOLING TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD.

THE DAILIES...

FRIDAY-SATURDAY-SUNDAY... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY MOVES EAST OVER THE MARITIMES DURING THE WEEKEND. THE
RIDGE AXIS HOLDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO SATURDAY...THEN
SHIFTS SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE ECMWF ACTUALLY BRINGS SHOWERS INTO OUR NORTHWEST AREAS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BUT BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW A SIMILAR JET POSITION ENTERING THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY...AND THE GFS IS DRY UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. ADDED TO THIS IS THE
OVERALL DRY PATTERN FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THE PAST FEW WEEKS AND
WHICH FAVORS THE DRIER FORECAST.

TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE FORECAST EQUIV TO A TEMP OF
0-1C AT 850 MB FRIDAY...WARMING TO 10-11C BY SUNDAY.  THIS SUPPORTS
MAX SFC TEMPS UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S FRIDAY...WARMING TO 75-80 SUNDAY.
WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER ARE FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 20 KNOTS
SATURDAY AND 25 KNOTS SUNDAY. WE HAVE BUMPED UP THE MODEL GRIDS TO
REFLECT THESE VALUES.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY... UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND SWINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH
FROPA...BUT WE STAYED CLOSER TO THE GFS. MUCH OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS
TO OUR NORTH BUT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE SOME LIFT.
WE WILL HOLD WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY... UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL MOVE OVERHEAD
TUESDAY AND EAST OF US WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BOTH DAYS.  ENOUGH DESTABILIZING ALOFT AND CLOUD-LEVEL MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT DIURNAL CLOUDS TUESDAY. OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER BOTH DAYS.
TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE 60S BOTH DAYS.
DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S WILL SUPPORT MIN SFC TEMPS IN
THE 40S...POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG/STRATUS LATE TONIGHT OVER THE FAR
INTERIOR. VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THURSDAY...ANY RAIN
SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH PROBABLE VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE LIGHT
SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH TONIGHT AND VFR
CONDITIONS THRU WED. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN NW WINDS ON WED BECOMING
E/NE DURING THE PM.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN FOG SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY EARLY MORNINGS. PATCHY MVFR IN SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY MAY GUST TO 20 KNOTS. SOUTHWEST
WINDS SUNDAY MAY GUST 25 KNOTS...POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL SLOWLY
BUILD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WITH INCREASING SEAS. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FEET ON THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS FOR A FEW HOURS THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
THIS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO POST HEADLINES.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT SOME GUSTS IN THE LOW 20 KT
RANGE ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS AS WELL. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR SEAS STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY...DIMINISHING NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND LESS THAN 20 KNOTS.
THERE WILL BE SOME 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE EASTERN WATERS FRIDAY MORNING
SUPPORTED BY A 2-3 FOOT SOUTHEAST SWELL...BUT THIS WILL SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PART OF FRIDAY.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...WINDS SWING AROUND TO SOUTHWEST WITH DAYTIME GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS...POSSIBLY NEAR 25 KNOTS SUNDAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN
2-4 FEET. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY. WEST
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS.  SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER AND EXPOSED WATERS...AS A SOUTH SWELL
INCREASES TO 3-5 FEET.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NMB
NEAR TERM...NMB
SHORT TERM...NMB
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/NMB
MARINE...WTB/NMB




000
FXUS61 KBOX 171943
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
343 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SOME FROST IS POSSIBLE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN SOME AREAS. THE HIGH WILL THEN SLIP
OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND IT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
145 PM UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER OUR REGION TODAY.
SOME DIURNAL STRATOCUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED AND THESE SHOULD
DISSIPATE TOWARDS SUNSET. TEMPS EXPECTED TO MAX OUT IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. COASTAL SEA BREEZES HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE SOUTH AND EAST COASTLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
STEMMING FROM A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE BUT STILL IN THE MID
40S TO MID 50S.

THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE DAY...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST.  THE FRONT APPEARS
TO BE MOISTURE STARVED BY THE TIME IT MOVES INTO THE AREA SO EXPECT
NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS.  MAIN CONCERN WITH THE FRONT WILL BE
IT USHERING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

BIG PICTURE... ZONAL FLOW FRIDAY WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILDING FROM A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TO A LITTLE ABOVE BY THE NIGHTTIME.  UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN STATES WHILE A SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW DIGS
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
TROUGH THEN MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WOULD BE SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
APPROACHES. EXPECT A WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY
COOLING TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD.

THE DAILIES...

FRIDAY-SATURDAY-SUNDAY... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY MOVES EAST OVER THE MARITIMES DURING THE WEEKEND. THE
RIDGE AXIS HOLDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO SATURDAY...THEN
SHIFTS SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE ECMWF ACTUALLY BRINGS SHOWERS INTO OUR NORTHWEST AREAS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BUT BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW A SIMILAR JET POSITION ENTERING THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY...AND THE GFS IS DRY UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. ADDED TO THIS IS THE
OVERALL DRY PATTERN FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THE PAST FEW WEEKS AND
WHICH FAVORS THE DRIER FORECAST.

TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE FORECAST EQUIV TO A TEMP OF
0-1C AT 850 MB FRIDAY...WARMING TO 10-11C BY SUNDAY.  THIS SUPPORTS
MAX SFC TEMPS UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S FRIDAY...WARMING TO 75-80 SUNDAY.
WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER ARE FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 20 KNOTS
SATURDAY AND 25 KNOTS SUNDAY. WE HAVE BUMPED UP THE MODEL GRIDS TO
REFLECT THESE VALUES.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY... UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND SWINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH
FROPA...BUT WE STAYED CLOSER TO THE GFS. MUCH OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS
TO OUR NORTH BUT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE SOME LIFT.
WE WILL HOLD WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY... UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL MOVE OVERHEAD
TUESDAY AND EAST OF US WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BOTH DAYS.  ENOUGH DESTABILIZING ALOFT AND CLOUD-LEVEL MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT DIURNAL CLOUDS TUESDAY. OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER BOTH DAYS.
TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE 60S BOTH DAYS.
DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S WILL SUPPORT MIN SFC TEMPS IN
THE 40S...POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG/STRATUS LATE TONIGHT OVER THE FAR
INTERIOR.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH TONIGHT AND VFR
CONDITIONS THRU WED. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN NW WINDS ON WED BECOMING
E/NE DURING THE PM.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN FOG SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY EARLY MORNINGS. PATCHY MVFR IN SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY MAY GUST TO 20 KNOTS. SOUTHWEST
WINDS SUNDAY MAY GUST 25 KNOTS...POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL
SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WITH INCREASING SEAS.
REGULAR FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN UNRELIABLE BUT HURRICANE WAVE
WATCH GUIDANCE LOOKS MUCH MORE REASONABLE SO HAVE USED THAT. EXPECT
SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET EXCEPT PERHAPS A FEW HOURS THURSDAY
MORNING. WINDS REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY...DIMINISHING NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND LESS THAN 20 KNOTS.
THERE WILL BE SOME 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE EASTERN WATERS FRIDAY MORNING
SUPPORTED BY A 2-3 FOOT SOUTHEAST SWELL...BUT THIS WILL SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PART OF FRIDAY.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...WINDS SWING AROUND TO SOUTHWEST WITH DAYTIME GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS...POSSIBLY NEAR 25 KNOTS SUNDAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN
2-4 FEET. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY. WEST
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS.  SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER AND EXPOSED WATERS...AS A SOUTH SWELL
INCREASES TO 3-5 FEET.
&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...DOODY/RLG/NMB
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG/NMB
MARINE...WTB/RLG/NMB



000
FXUS61 KBOX 171943
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
343 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SOME FROST IS POSSIBLE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN SOME AREAS. THE HIGH WILL THEN SLIP
OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND IT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
145 PM UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER OUR REGION TODAY.
SOME DIURNAL STRATOCUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED AND THESE SHOULD
DISSIPATE TOWARDS SUNSET. TEMPS EXPECTED TO MAX OUT IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. COASTAL SEA BREEZES HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE SOUTH AND EAST COASTLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
STEMMING FROM A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE BUT STILL IN THE MID
40S TO MID 50S.

THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE DAY...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST.  THE FRONT APPEARS
TO BE MOISTURE STARVED BY THE TIME IT MOVES INTO THE AREA SO EXPECT
NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS.  MAIN CONCERN WITH THE FRONT WILL BE
IT USHERING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

BIG PICTURE... ZONAL FLOW FRIDAY WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILDING FROM A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TO A LITTLE ABOVE BY THE NIGHTTIME.  UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN STATES WHILE A SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW DIGS
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
TROUGH THEN MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WOULD BE SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
APPROACHES. EXPECT A WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY
COOLING TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD.

THE DAILIES...

FRIDAY-SATURDAY-SUNDAY... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY MOVES EAST OVER THE MARITIMES DURING THE WEEKEND. THE
RIDGE AXIS HOLDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO SATURDAY...THEN
SHIFTS SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE ECMWF ACTUALLY BRINGS SHOWERS INTO OUR NORTHWEST AREAS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BUT BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW A SIMILAR JET POSITION ENTERING THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY...AND THE GFS IS DRY UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. ADDED TO THIS IS THE
OVERALL DRY PATTERN FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THE PAST FEW WEEKS AND
WHICH FAVORS THE DRIER FORECAST.

TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE FORECAST EQUIV TO A TEMP OF
0-1C AT 850 MB FRIDAY...WARMING TO 10-11C BY SUNDAY.  THIS SUPPORTS
MAX SFC TEMPS UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S FRIDAY...WARMING TO 75-80 SUNDAY.
WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER ARE FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 20 KNOTS
SATURDAY AND 25 KNOTS SUNDAY. WE HAVE BUMPED UP THE MODEL GRIDS TO
REFLECT THESE VALUES.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY... UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND SWINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH
FROPA...BUT WE STAYED CLOSER TO THE GFS. MUCH OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS
TO OUR NORTH BUT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE SOME LIFT.
WE WILL HOLD WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY... UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL MOVE OVERHEAD
TUESDAY AND EAST OF US WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BOTH DAYS.  ENOUGH DESTABILIZING ALOFT AND CLOUD-LEVEL MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT DIURNAL CLOUDS TUESDAY. OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER BOTH DAYS.
TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE 60S BOTH DAYS.
DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S WILL SUPPORT MIN SFC TEMPS IN
THE 40S...POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG/STRATUS LATE TONIGHT OVER THE FAR
INTERIOR.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH TONIGHT AND VFR
CONDITIONS THRU WED. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN NW WINDS ON WED BECOMING
E/NE DURING THE PM.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN FOG SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY EARLY MORNINGS. PATCHY MVFR IN SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY MAY GUST TO 20 KNOTS. SOUTHWEST
WINDS SUNDAY MAY GUST 25 KNOTS...POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL
SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WITH INCREASING SEAS.
REGULAR FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN UNRELIABLE BUT HURRICANE WAVE
WATCH GUIDANCE LOOKS MUCH MORE REASONABLE SO HAVE USED THAT. EXPECT
SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET EXCEPT PERHAPS A FEW HOURS THURSDAY
MORNING. WINDS REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY...DIMINISHING NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND LESS THAN 20 KNOTS.
THERE WILL BE SOME 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE EASTERN WATERS FRIDAY MORNING
SUPPORTED BY A 2-3 FOOT SOUTHEAST SWELL...BUT THIS WILL SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PART OF FRIDAY.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...WINDS SWING AROUND TO SOUTHWEST WITH DAYTIME GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS...POSSIBLY NEAR 25 KNOTS SUNDAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN
2-4 FEET. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY. WEST
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS.  SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER AND EXPOSED WATERS...AS A SOUTH SWELL
INCREASES TO 3-5 FEET.
&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...DOODY/RLG/NMB
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG/NMB
MARINE...WTB/RLG/NMB




000
FXUS61 KBOX 171751
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
151 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SOME FROST IS POSSIBLE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN SOME AREAS. THE HIGH WILL THEN SLIP
OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND IT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
145 PM UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER OUR REGION TODAY.
SOME DIURNAL STRATOCUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED AND THESE SHOULD
DISSIPATE TOWARDS SUNSET. TEMPS EXPECTED TO MAX OUT IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. COASTAL SEA BREEZES HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE SOUTH AND EAST COASTLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
STEMMING FROM A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE BUT STILL IN THE MID
40S TO MID 50S.

THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE DAY...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST.  THE FRONT APPEARS
TO BE MOISTURE STARVED BY THE TIME IT MOVES INTO THE AREA SO EXPECT
NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS.  MAIN CONCERN WITH THE FRONT WILL BE
IT USHERING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE IN THE SENSIBLE WX THROUGH THE LONG TERM
CONTINUES TO BE TWO REASONABLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROFS. THE FIRST WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS MID LVL RIDGE
SLIDES W-E ACROSS THE CONUS...YIELDING RISING HEIGHTS AND MORE
ZONAL FLOW. HOWEVER...THE NEAR HUDSON BAY CUTOFF HOLDS EVEN AS THE
HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS SRN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST...SO...WHEN A
SECOND STRONG/COLD SHORTWAVE SLIDES OUT OF THE ALASKAN
REGION...THE LONGWAVE TROF REDEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THEREFORE...EXPECT...AFTER A COOL END OF THE WORK WEEK...A PERIOD
OF WARMING AND MILDER WX FOR THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
RETURN TO COOL CONDITIONS BY THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK. GIVEN
BOTH ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE HAS GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
THESE SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES...WILL USE A BLEND AS A BASELINE FOR
THIS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...
POTENTIAL FOR THE COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THU...BUT ALLOW FOR GRADUAL
CLEARING WITH COLD HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THU NIGHT. DWPTS SHOULD
FALL BACK INTO THE 30S...SO ASSUMING CLEARING OCCURS QUICKLY
ENOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING...TEMPS COULD FALL INTO THE MID
30S IN NW MA/SW NH VALLEYS WHICH MAY REQUIRE FROST ADVISORIES.
ELSEWHERE...STILL A COOL MORNING FRI...UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S
POSSIBLE. THIS COOL START AND HIGH PRES MEANS DRY WX WITH HIGHS
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S IN THE WARMEST SPOTS. GOOD
SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AGAIN FRI NIGHT...BUT RETURN FLOW
AND RISING DWPTS MAY MEAN MINS ARE A BIT WARMER THAN THU NIGHT.

SAT AND SUN...
WEAK WARM FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION ON SAT. AT THIS
POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH SUBSIDENCE
SUPPRESSING ANY WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. SO WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY. IN FACT...SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN A LOW PRES MOVING
THROUGH SRN CANADA...AND OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE
WEEKEND IS LIKELY TO YIELD MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.
MODELS DO INDICATE THIS AS AN INVERTED RIDGE FROM HIGH PRES IN THE
MARITIMES. OTHERWISE...RISING HEIGHTS AND H85 TEMPS APPROACHING
+12C ON SAT...THEN +14C ON SUN SUGGEST TEMPS RISE ABOVE NORMAL BY
SUN. THEREFORE...LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S ARE EXPECTED
SAT...REACHING CLOSE TO 80 BY SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN SYSTEM WILL CROSS THERE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD. STILL A FEW ISSUES TO WORK OUT REGARDING
TIMING. HOWEVER...WITH AT LEAST MODEST PWATS /AROUND 1.5 INCHES/
AND SOME LIFT SUSPECT A PERIOD OF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE. ECMWF GOES BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN A DRY AND
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A WET ONE WITH SECONDARY LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT.
BUT FEEL THAT AT LEAST SOME SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS ARE
WARRANTED...ESPECIALLY AS K-VALUES APPROACH 30.

TUE AND WED...
LONGWAVE TROF AND CUTOFF LOW PRES DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE
GREAT LAKES. MODELS INDICATE THAT THICKNESS VALUES COULD DROP TO
AROUND 540-550DM. THEREFORE...CONDITIONS LOOK RIPE FOR ANOTHER
COOL DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG/STRATUS LATE TONIGHT OVER THE FAR
INTERIOR.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH TONIGHT AND VFR
CONDITIONS THRU WED. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN NW WINDS ON WED BECOMING
E/NE DURING THE PM.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH SOME OVERNIGHT FOG AT
TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS MAY LEAD TO IFR CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL
SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WITH INCREASING SEAS.
REGULAR FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN UNRELIABLE BUT HURRICANE WAVE
WATCH GUIDANCE LOOKS MUCH MORE REASONABLE SO HAVE USED THAT. EXPECT
SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET EXCEPT PERHAPS A FEW HOURS THURSDAY
MORNING. WINDS REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THU NIGHT FRI...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL BRING A
STRONGER NORTHEAST WIND WITH POTENTIAL FOR 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY
AROUND NANTUCKET AND ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. SEAS MAY INCREASE
TO 4-6 FEET IN THIS NORTHEAST FLOW...DIMINISHING AS THE WINDS
DIMINISH FRIDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR
SEAS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES. THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTH SATURDAY AND SOUTHWEST SUNDAY. GUSTS
20-25 KTS BOTH DAYS WITH POTENTIAL FOR 25 KNOT GUSTS ON SUNDAY.
MOST SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET...BUT THE WATERS EAST OF MASS
BAY AND IPSWICH BAY MAY SEE SEAS RISE AGAIN TO AROUND 5 FEET.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/RLG
NEAR TERM...DOODY/RLG/NMB
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...DOODY/RLG/NMB
MARINE...DOODY/RLG/NMB




000
FXUS61 KBOX 171751
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
151 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SOME FROST IS POSSIBLE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN SOME AREAS. THE HIGH WILL THEN SLIP
OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND IT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
145 PM UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER OUR REGION TODAY.
SOME DIURNAL STRATOCUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED AND THESE SHOULD
DISSIPATE TOWARDS SUNSET. TEMPS EXPECTED TO MAX OUT IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. COASTAL SEA BREEZES HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE SOUTH AND EAST COASTLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
STEMMING FROM A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE BUT STILL IN THE MID
40S TO MID 50S.

THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE DAY...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST.  THE FRONT APPEARS
TO BE MOISTURE STARVED BY THE TIME IT MOVES INTO THE AREA SO EXPECT
NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS.  MAIN CONCERN WITH THE FRONT WILL BE
IT USHERING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE IN THE SENSIBLE WX THROUGH THE LONG TERM
CONTINUES TO BE TWO REASONABLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROFS. THE FIRST WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS MID LVL RIDGE
SLIDES W-E ACROSS THE CONUS...YIELDING RISING HEIGHTS AND MORE
ZONAL FLOW. HOWEVER...THE NEAR HUDSON BAY CUTOFF HOLDS EVEN AS THE
HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS SRN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST...SO...WHEN A
SECOND STRONG/COLD SHORTWAVE SLIDES OUT OF THE ALASKAN
REGION...THE LONGWAVE TROF REDEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THEREFORE...EXPECT...AFTER A COOL END OF THE WORK WEEK...A PERIOD
OF WARMING AND MILDER WX FOR THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
RETURN TO COOL CONDITIONS BY THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK. GIVEN
BOTH ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE HAS GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
THESE SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES...WILL USE A BLEND AS A BASELINE FOR
THIS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...
POTENTIAL FOR THE COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THU...BUT ALLOW FOR GRADUAL
CLEARING WITH COLD HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THU NIGHT. DWPTS SHOULD
FALL BACK INTO THE 30S...SO ASSUMING CLEARING OCCURS QUICKLY
ENOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING...TEMPS COULD FALL INTO THE MID
30S IN NW MA/SW NH VALLEYS WHICH MAY REQUIRE FROST ADVISORIES.
ELSEWHERE...STILL A COOL MORNING FRI...UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S
POSSIBLE. THIS COOL START AND HIGH PRES MEANS DRY WX WITH HIGHS
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S IN THE WARMEST SPOTS. GOOD
SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AGAIN FRI NIGHT...BUT RETURN FLOW
AND RISING DWPTS MAY MEAN MINS ARE A BIT WARMER THAN THU NIGHT.

SAT AND SUN...
WEAK WARM FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION ON SAT. AT THIS
POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH SUBSIDENCE
SUPPRESSING ANY WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. SO WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY. IN FACT...SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN A LOW PRES MOVING
THROUGH SRN CANADA...AND OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE
WEEKEND IS LIKELY TO YIELD MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.
MODELS DO INDICATE THIS AS AN INVERTED RIDGE FROM HIGH PRES IN THE
MARITIMES. OTHERWISE...RISING HEIGHTS AND H85 TEMPS APPROACHING
+12C ON SAT...THEN +14C ON SUN SUGGEST TEMPS RISE ABOVE NORMAL BY
SUN. THEREFORE...LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S ARE EXPECTED
SAT...REACHING CLOSE TO 80 BY SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN SYSTEM WILL CROSS THERE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD. STILL A FEW ISSUES TO WORK OUT REGARDING
TIMING. HOWEVER...WITH AT LEAST MODEST PWATS /AROUND 1.5 INCHES/
AND SOME LIFT SUSPECT A PERIOD OF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE. ECMWF GOES BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN A DRY AND
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A WET ONE WITH SECONDARY LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT.
BUT FEEL THAT AT LEAST SOME SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS ARE
WARRANTED...ESPECIALLY AS K-VALUES APPROACH 30.

TUE AND WED...
LONGWAVE TROF AND CUTOFF LOW PRES DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE
GREAT LAKES. MODELS INDICATE THAT THICKNESS VALUES COULD DROP TO
AROUND 540-550DM. THEREFORE...CONDITIONS LOOK RIPE FOR ANOTHER
COOL DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG/STRATUS LATE TONIGHT OVER THE FAR
INTERIOR.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH TONIGHT AND VFR
CONDITIONS THRU WED. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN NW WINDS ON WED BECOMING
E/NE DURING THE PM.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH SOME OVERNIGHT FOG AT
TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS MAY LEAD TO IFR CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL
SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WITH INCREASING SEAS.
REGULAR FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN UNRELIABLE BUT HURRICANE WAVE
WATCH GUIDANCE LOOKS MUCH MORE REASONABLE SO HAVE USED THAT. EXPECT
SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET EXCEPT PERHAPS A FEW HOURS THURSDAY
MORNING. WINDS REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THU NIGHT FRI...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL BRING A
STRONGER NORTHEAST WIND WITH POTENTIAL FOR 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY
AROUND NANTUCKET AND ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. SEAS MAY INCREASE
TO 4-6 FEET IN THIS NORTHEAST FLOW...DIMINISHING AS THE WINDS
DIMINISH FRIDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR
SEAS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES. THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTH SATURDAY AND SOUTHWEST SUNDAY. GUSTS
20-25 KTS BOTH DAYS WITH POTENTIAL FOR 25 KNOT GUSTS ON SUNDAY.
MOST SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET...BUT THE WATERS EAST OF MASS
BAY AND IPSWICH BAY MAY SEE SEAS RISE AGAIN TO AROUND 5 FEET.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/RLG
NEAR TERM...DOODY/RLG/NMB
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...DOODY/RLG/NMB
MARINE...DOODY/RLG/NMB




000
FXUS61 KBOX 171751
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
151 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SOME FROST IS POSSIBLE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN SOME AREAS. THE HIGH WILL THEN SLIP
OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND IT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
145 PM UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER OUR REGION TODAY.
SOME DIURNAL STRATOCUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED AND THESE SHOULD
DISSIPATE TOWARDS SUNSET. TEMPS EXPECTED TO MAX OUT IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. COASTAL SEA BREEZES HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE SOUTH AND EAST COASTLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
STEMMING FROM A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE BUT STILL IN THE MID
40S TO MID 50S.

THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE DAY...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST.  THE FRONT APPEARS
TO BE MOISTURE STARVED BY THE TIME IT MOVES INTO THE AREA SO EXPECT
NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS.  MAIN CONCERN WITH THE FRONT WILL BE
IT USHERING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE IN THE SENSIBLE WX THROUGH THE LONG TERM
CONTINUES TO BE TWO REASONABLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROFS. THE FIRST WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS MID LVL RIDGE
SLIDES W-E ACROSS THE CONUS...YIELDING RISING HEIGHTS AND MORE
ZONAL FLOW. HOWEVER...THE NEAR HUDSON BAY CUTOFF HOLDS EVEN AS THE
HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS SRN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST...SO...WHEN A
SECOND STRONG/COLD SHORTWAVE SLIDES OUT OF THE ALASKAN
REGION...THE LONGWAVE TROF REDEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THEREFORE...EXPECT...AFTER A COOL END OF THE WORK WEEK...A PERIOD
OF WARMING AND MILDER WX FOR THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
RETURN TO COOL CONDITIONS BY THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK. GIVEN
BOTH ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE HAS GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
THESE SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES...WILL USE A BLEND AS A BASELINE FOR
THIS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...
POTENTIAL FOR THE COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THU...BUT ALLOW FOR GRADUAL
CLEARING WITH COLD HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THU NIGHT. DWPTS SHOULD
FALL BACK INTO THE 30S...SO ASSUMING CLEARING OCCURS QUICKLY
ENOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING...TEMPS COULD FALL INTO THE MID
30S IN NW MA/SW NH VALLEYS WHICH MAY REQUIRE FROST ADVISORIES.
ELSEWHERE...STILL A COOL MORNING FRI...UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S
POSSIBLE. THIS COOL START AND HIGH PRES MEANS DRY WX WITH HIGHS
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S IN THE WARMEST SPOTS. GOOD
SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AGAIN FRI NIGHT...BUT RETURN FLOW
AND RISING DWPTS MAY MEAN MINS ARE A BIT WARMER THAN THU NIGHT.

SAT AND SUN...
WEAK WARM FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION ON SAT. AT THIS
POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH SUBSIDENCE
SUPPRESSING ANY WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. SO WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY. IN FACT...SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN A LOW PRES MOVING
THROUGH SRN CANADA...AND OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE
WEEKEND IS LIKELY TO YIELD MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.
MODELS DO INDICATE THIS AS AN INVERTED RIDGE FROM HIGH PRES IN THE
MARITIMES. OTHERWISE...RISING HEIGHTS AND H85 TEMPS APPROACHING
+12C ON SAT...THEN +14C ON SUN SUGGEST TEMPS RISE ABOVE NORMAL BY
SUN. THEREFORE...LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S ARE EXPECTED
SAT...REACHING CLOSE TO 80 BY SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN SYSTEM WILL CROSS THERE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD. STILL A FEW ISSUES TO WORK OUT REGARDING
TIMING. HOWEVER...WITH AT LEAST MODEST PWATS /AROUND 1.5 INCHES/
AND SOME LIFT SUSPECT A PERIOD OF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE. ECMWF GOES BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN A DRY AND
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A WET ONE WITH SECONDARY LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT.
BUT FEEL THAT AT LEAST SOME SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS ARE
WARRANTED...ESPECIALLY AS K-VALUES APPROACH 30.

TUE AND WED...
LONGWAVE TROF AND CUTOFF LOW PRES DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE
GREAT LAKES. MODELS INDICATE THAT THICKNESS VALUES COULD DROP TO
AROUND 540-550DM. THEREFORE...CONDITIONS LOOK RIPE FOR ANOTHER
COOL DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG/STRATUS LATE TONIGHT OVER THE FAR
INTERIOR.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH TONIGHT AND VFR
CONDITIONS THRU WED. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN NW WINDS ON WED BECOMING
E/NE DURING THE PM.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH SOME OVERNIGHT FOG AT
TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS MAY LEAD TO IFR CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL
SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WITH INCREASING SEAS.
REGULAR FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN UNRELIABLE BUT HURRICANE WAVE
WATCH GUIDANCE LOOKS MUCH MORE REASONABLE SO HAVE USED THAT. EXPECT
SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET EXCEPT PERHAPS A FEW HOURS THURSDAY
MORNING. WINDS REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THU NIGHT FRI...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL BRING A
STRONGER NORTHEAST WIND WITH POTENTIAL FOR 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY
AROUND NANTUCKET AND ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. SEAS MAY INCREASE
TO 4-6 FEET IN THIS NORTHEAST FLOW...DIMINISHING AS THE WINDS
DIMINISH FRIDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR
SEAS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES. THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTH SATURDAY AND SOUTHWEST SUNDAY. GUSTS
20-25 KTS BOTH DAYS WITH POTENTIAL FOR 25 KNOT GUSTS ON SUNDAY.
MOST SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET...BUT THE WATERS EAST OF MASS
BAY AND IPSWICH BAY MAY SEE SEAS RISE AGAIN TO AROUND 5 FEET.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/RLG
NEAR TERM...DOODY/RLG/NMB
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...DOODY/RLG/NMB
MARINE...DOODY/RLG/NMB




000
FXUS61 KBOX 171751
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
151 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SOME FROST IS POSSIBLE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN SOME AREAS. THE HIGH WILL THEN SLIP
OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND IT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
145 PM UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER OUR REGION TODAY.
SOME DIURNAL STRATOCUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED AND THESE SHOULD
DISSIPATE TOWARDS SUNSET. TEMPS EXPECTED TO MAX OUT IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. COASTAL SEA BREEZES HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE SOUTH AND EAST COASTLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
STEMMING FROM A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE BUT STILL IN THE MID
40S TO MID 50S.

THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE DAY...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST.  THE FRONT APPEARS
TO BE MOISTURE STARVED BY THE TIME IT MOVES INTO THE AREA SO EXPECT
NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS.  MAIN CONCERN WITH THE FRONT WILL BE
IT USHERING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE IN THE SENSIBLE WX THROUGH THE LONG TERM
CONTINUES TO BE TWO REASONABLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROFS. THE FIRST WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS MID LVL RIDGE
SLIDES W-E ACROSS THE CONUS...YIELDING RISING HEIGHTS AND MORE
ZONAL FLOW. HOWEVER...THE NEAR HUDSON BAY CUTOFF HOLDS EVEN AS THE
HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS SRN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST...SO...WHEN A
SECOND STRONG/COLD SHORTWAVE SLIDES OUT OF THE ALASKAN
REGION...THE LONGWAVE TROF REDEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THEREFORE...EXPECT...AFTER A COOL END OF THE WORK WEEK...A PERIOD
OF WARMING AND MILDER WX FOR THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
RETURN TO COOL CONDITIONS BY THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK. GIVEN
BOTH ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE HAS GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
THESE SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES...WILL USE A BLEND AS A BASELINE FOR
THIS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...
POTENTIAL FOR THE COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THU...BUT ALLOW FOR GRADUAL
CLEARING WITH COLD HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THU NIGHT. DWPTS SHOULD
FALL BACK INTO THE 30S...SO ASSUMING CLEARING OCCURS QUICKLY
ENOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING...TEMPS COULD FALL INTO THE MID
30S IN NW MA/SW NH VALLEYS WHICH MAY REQUIRE FROST ADVISORIES.
ELSEWHERE...STILL A COOL MORNING FRI...UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S
POSSIBLE. THIS COOL START AND HIGH PRES MEANS DRY WX WITH HIGHS
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S IN THE WARMEST SPOTS. GOOD
SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AGAIN FRI NIGHT...BUT RETURN FLOW
AND RISING DWPTS MAY MEAN MINS ARE A BIT WARMER THAN THU NIGHT.

SAT AND SUN...
WEAK WARM FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION ON SAT. AT THIS
POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH SUBSIDENCE
SUPPRESSING ANY WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. SO WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY. IN FACT...SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN A LOW PRES MOVING
THROUGH SRN CANADA...AND OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE
WEEKEND IS LIKELY TO YIELD MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.
MODELS DO INDICATE THIS AS AN INVERTED RIDGE FROM HIGH PRES IN THE
MARITIMES. OTHERWISE...RISING HEIGHTS AND H85 TEMPS APPROACHING
+12C ON SAT...THEN +14C ON SUN SUGGEST TEMPS RISE ABOVE NORMAL BY
SUN. THEREFORE...LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S ARE EXPECTED
SAT...REACHING CLOSE TO 80 BY SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN SYSTEM WILL CROSS THERE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD. STILL A FEW ISSUES TO WORK OUT REGARDING
TIMING. HOWEVER...WITH AT LEAST MODEST PWATS /AROUND 1.5 INCHES/
AND SOME LIFT SUSPECT A PERIOD OF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE. ECMWF GOES BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN A DRY AND
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A WET ONE WITH SECONDARY LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT.
BUT FEEL THAT AT LEAST SOME SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS ARE
WARRANTED...ESPECIALLY AS K-VALUES APPROACH 30.

TUE AND WED...
LONGWAVE TROF AND CUTOFF LOW PRES DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE
GREAT LAKES. MODELS INDICATE THAT THICKNESS VALUES COULD DROP TO
AROUND 540-550DM. THEREFORE...CONDITIONS LOOK RIPE FOR ANOTHER
COOL DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG/STRATUS LATE TONIGHT OVER THE FAR
INTERIOR.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH TONIGHT AND VFR
CONDITIONS THRU WED. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN NW WINDS ON WED BECOMING
E/NE DURING THE PM.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH SOME OVERNIGHT FOG AT
TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS MAY LEAD TO IFR CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL
SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WITH INCREASING SEAS.
REGULAR FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN UNRELIABLE BUT HURRICANE WAVE
WATCH GUIDANCE LOOKS MUCH MORE REASONABLE SO HAVE USED THAT. EXPECT
SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET EXCEPT PERHAPS A FEW HOURS THURSDAY
MORNING. WINDS REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THU NIGHT FRI...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL BRING A
STRONGER NORTHEAST WIND WITH POTENTIAL FOR 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY
AROUND NANTUCKET AND ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. SEAS MAY INCREASE
TO 4-6 FEET IN THIS NORTHEAST FLOW...DIMINISHING AS THE WINDS
DIMINISH FRIDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR
SEAS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES. THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTH SATURDAY AND SOUTHWEST SUNDAY. GUSTS
20-25 KTS BOTH DAYS WITH POTENTIAL FOR 25 KNOT GUSTS ON SUNDAY.
MOST SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET...BUT THE WATERS EAST OF MASS
BAY AND IPSWICH BAY MAY SEE SEAS RISE AGAIN TO AROUND 5 FEET.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/RLG
NEAR TERM...DOODY/RLG/NMB
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...DOODY/RLG/NMB
MARINE...DOODY/RLG/NMB




000
FXUS61 KBOX 171401
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1001 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SOME FROST IS POSSIBLE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN SOME AREAS. THE HIGH WILL THEN SLIP
OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND IT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO. LINGERING VALLEY FOG/STRATUS IN SW NH WILL
RAPIDLY LIFT/DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED TODAY. FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK...ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS. TEMPS
EXPECTED TO MAX OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA...SLIGHTLY COOLER OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE INTERIOR.
COASTAL SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
STEMMING FROM A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE BUT STILL IN THE MID
40S TO MID 50S.

THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE DAY...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST.  THE FRONT APPEARS
TO BE MOISTURE STARVED BY THE TIME IT MOVES INTO THE AREA SO EXPECT
NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS.  MAIN CONCERN WITH THE FRONT WILL BE
IT USHERING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE IN THE SENSIBLE WX THROUGH THE LONG TERM
CONTINUES TO BE TWO REASONABLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROFS. THE FIRST WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS MID LVL RIDGE
SLIDES W-E ACROSS THE CONUS...YIELDING RISING HEIGHTS AND MORE
ZONAL FLOW. HOWEVER...THE NEAR HUDSON BAY CUTOFF HOLDS EVEN AS THE
HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS SRN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST...SO...WHEN A
SECOND STRONG/COLD SHORTWAVE SLIDES OUT OF THE ALASKAN
REGION...THE LONGWAVE TROF REDEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THEREFORE...EXPECT...AFTER A COOL END OF THE WORK WEEK...A PERIOD
OF WARMING AND MILDER WX FOR THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
RETURN TO COOL CONDITIONS BY THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK. GIVEN
BOTH ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE HAS GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
THESE SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES...WILL USE A BLEND AS A BASELINE FOR
THIS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...
POTENTIAL FOR THE COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THU...BUT ALLOW FOR GRADUAL
CLEARING WITH COLD HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THU NIGHT. DWPTS SHOULD
FALL BACK INTO THE 30S...SO ASSUMING CLEARING OCCURS QUICKLY
ENOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING...TEMPS COULD FALL INTO THE MID
30S IN NW MA/SW NH VALLEYS WHICH MAY REQUIRE FROST ADVISORIES.
ELSEWHERE...STILL A COOL MORNING FRI...UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S
POSSIBLE. THIS COOL START AND HIGH PRES MEANS DRY WX WITH HIGHS
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S IN THE WARMEST SPOTS. GOOD
SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AGAIN FRI NIGHT...BUT RETURN FLOW
AND RISING DWPTS MAY MEAN MINS ARE A BIT WARMER THAN THU NIGHT.

SAT AND SUN...
WEAK WARM FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION ON SAT. AT THIS
POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH SUBSIDENCE
SUPPRESSING ANY WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. SO WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY. IN FACT...SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN A LOW PRES MOVING
THROUGH SRN CANADA...AND OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE
WEEKEND IS LIKELY TO YIELD MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.
MODELS DO INDICATE THIS AS AN INVERTED RIDGE FROM HIGH PRES IN THE
MARITIMES. OTHERWISE...RISING HEIGHTS AND H85 TEMPS APPROACHING
+12C ON SAT...THEN +14C ON SUN SUGGEST TEMPS RISE ABOVE NORMAL BY
SUN. THEREFORE...LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S ARE EXPECTED
SAT...REACHING CLOSE TO 80 BY SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN SYSTEM WILL CROSS THERE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD. STILL A FEW ISSUES TO WORK OUT REGARDING
TIMING. HOWEVER...WITH AT LEAST MODEST PWATS /AROUND 1.5 INCHES/
AND SOME LIFT SUSPECT A PERIOD OF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE. ECMWF GOES BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN A DRY AND
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A WET ONE WITH SECONDARY LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT.
BUT FEEL THAT AT LEAST SOME SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS ARE
WARRANTED...ESPECIALLY AS K-VALUES APPROACH 30.

TUE AND WED...
LONGWAVE TROF AND CUTOFF LOW PRES DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE
GREAT LAKES. MODELS INDICATE THAT THICKNESS VALUES COULD DROP TO
AROUND 540-550DM. THEREFORE...CONDITIONS LOOK RIPE FOR ANOTHER
COOL DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LINGERING FOG/STRATUS IN
SW NH IS RAPIDLY LIFTING AND DISSIPATING...AND VISIBILITIES
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THERE DURING LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH SOME OVERNIGHT FOG AT
TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS MAY LEAD TO IFR CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL
SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WITH INCREASING SEAS.
REGULAR FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN UNRELIABLE BUT HURRICANE WAVE
WATCH GUIDANCE LOOKS MUCH MORE REASONABLE SO HAVE USED THAT. EXPECT
SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET EXCEPT PERHAPS A FEW HOURS THURSDAY
MORNING. WINDS REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THU NIGHT FRI...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL BRING A
STRONGER NORTHEAST WIND WITH POTENTIAL FOR 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY
AROUND NANTUCKET AND ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. SEAS MAY INCREASE
TO 4-6 FEET IN THIS NORTHEAST FLOW...DIMINISHING AS THE WINDS
DIMINISH FRIDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR
SEAS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES. THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTH SATURDAY AND SOUTHWEST SUNDAY. GUSTS
20-25 KTS BOTH DAYS WITH POTENTIAL FOR 25 KNOT GUSTS ON SUNDAY.
MOST SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET...BUT THE WATERS EAST OF MASS
BAY AND IPSWICH BAY MAY SEE SEAS RISE AGAIN TO AROUND 5 FEET.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/RLG
NEAR TERM...DOODY/RLG/NMB
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...DOODY/RLG/NMB
MARINE...DOODY/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 171401
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1001 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SOME FROST IS POSSIBLE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN SOME AREAS. THE HIGH WILL THEN SLIP
OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND IT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO. LINGERING VALLEY FOG/STRATUS IN SW NH WILL
RAPIDLY LIFT/DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED TODAY. FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK...ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS. TEMPS
EXPECTED TO MAX OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA...SLIGHTLY COOLER OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE INTERIOR.
COASTAL SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
STEMMING FROM A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE BUT STILL IN THE MID
40S TO MID 50S.

THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE DAY...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST.  THE FRONT APPEARS
TO BE MOISTURE STARVED BY THE TIME IT MOVES INTO THE AREA SO EXPECT
NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS.  MAIN CONCERN WITH THE FRONT WILL BE
IT USHERING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE IN THE SENSIBLE WX THROUGH THE LONG TERM
CONTINUES TO BE TWO REASONABLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROFS. THE FIRST WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS MID LVL RIDGE
SLIDES W-E ACROSS THE CONUS...YIELDING RISING HEIGHTS AND MORE
ZONAL FLOW. HOWEVER...THE NEAR HUDSON BAY CUTOFF HOLDS EVEN AS THE
HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS SRN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST...SO...WHEN A
SECOND STRONG/COLD SHORTWAVE SLIDES OUT OF THE ALASKAN
REGION...THE LONGWAVE TROF REDEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THEREFORE...EXPECT...AFTER A COOL END OF THE WORK WEEK...A PERIOD
OF WARMING AND MILDER WX FOR THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
RETURN TO COOL CONDITIONS BY THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK. GIVEN
BOTH ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE HAS GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
THESE SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES...WILL USE A BLEND AS A BASELINE FOR
THIS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...
POTENTIAL FOR THE COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THU...BUT ALLOW FOR GRADUAL
CLEARING WITH COLD HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THU NIGHT. DWPTS SHOULD
FALL BACK INTO THE 30S...SO ASSUMING CLEARING OCCURS QUICKLY
ENOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING...TEMPS COULD FALL INTO THE MID
30S IN NW MA/SW NH VALLEYS WHICH MAY REQUIRE FROST ADVISORIES.
ELSEWHERE...STILL A COOL MORNING FRI...UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S
POSSIBLE. THIS COOL START AND HIGH PRES MEANS DRY WX WITH HIGHS
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S IN THE WARMEST SPOTS. GOOD
SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AGAIN FRI NIGHT...BUT RETURN FLOW
AND RISING DWPTS MAY MEAN MINS ARE A BIT WARMER THAN THU NIGHT.

SAT AND SUN...
WEAK WARM FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION ON SAT. AT THIS
POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH SUBSIDENCE
SUPPRESSING ANY WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. SO WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY. IN FACT...SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN A LOW PRES MOVING
THROUGH SRN CANADA...AND OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE
WEEKEND IS LIKELY TO YIELD MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.
MODELS DO INDICATE THIS AS AN INVERTED RIDGE FROM HIGH PRES IN THE
MARITIMES. OTHERWISE...RISING HEIGHTS AND H85 TEMPS APPROACHING
+12C ON SAT...THEN +14C ON SUN SUGGEST TEMPS RISE ABOVE NORMAL BY
SUN. THEREFORE...LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S ARE EXPECTED
SAT...REACHING CLOSE TO 80 BY SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN SYSTEM WILL CROSS THERE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD. STILL A FEW ISSUES TO WORK OUT REGARDING
TIMING. HOWEVER...WITH AT LEAST MODEST PWATS /AROUND 1.5 INCHES/
AND SOME LIFT SUSPECT A PERIOD OF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE. ECMWF GOES BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN A DRY AND
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A WET ONE WITH SECONDARY LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT.
BUT FEEL THAT AT LEAST SOME SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS ARE
WARRANTED...ESPECIALLY AS K-VALUES APPROACH 30.

TUE AND WED...
LONGWAVE TROF AND CUTOFF LOW PRES DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE
GREAT LAKES. MODELS INDICATE THAT THICKNESS VALUES COULD DROP TO
AROUND 540-550DM. THEREFORE...CONDITIONS LOOK RIPE FOR ANOTHER
COOL DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LINGERING FOG/STRATUS IN
SW NH IS RAPIDLY LIFTING AND DISSIPATING...AND VISIBILITIES
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THERE DURING LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH SOME OVERNIGHT FOG AT
TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS MAY LEAD TO IFR CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL
SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WITH INCREASING SEAS.
REGULAR FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN UNRELIABLE BUT HURRICANE WAVE
WATCH GUIDANCE LOOKS MUCH MORE REASONABLE SO HAVE USED THAT. EXPECT
SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET EXCEPT PERHAPS A FEW HOURS THURSDAY
MORNING. WINDS REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THU NIGHT FRI...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL BRING A
STRONGER NORTHEAST WIND WITH POTENTIAL FOR 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY
AROUND NANTUCKET AND ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. SEAS MAY INCREASE
TO 4-6 FEET IN THIS NORTHEAST FLOW...DIMINISHING AS THE WINDS
DIMINISH FRIDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR
SEAS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES. THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTH SATURDAY AND SOUTHWEST SUNDAY. GUSTS
20-25 KTS BOTH DAYS WITH POTENTIAL FOR 25 KNOT GUSTS ON SUNDAY.
MOST SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET...BUT THE WATERS EAST OF MASS
BAY AND IPSWICH BAY MAY SEE SEAS RISE AGAIN TO AROUND 5 FEET.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/RLG
NEAR TERM...DOODY/RLG/NMB
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...DOODY/RLG/NMB
MARINE...DOODY/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 171401
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1001 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SOME FROST IS POSSIBLE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN SOME AREAS. THE HIGH WILL THEN SLIP
OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND IT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO. LINGERING VALLEY FOG/STRATUS IN SW NH WILL
RAPIDLY LIFT/DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED TODAY. FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK...ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS. TEMPS
EXPECTED TO MAX OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA...SLIGHTLY COOLER OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE INTERIOR.
COASTAL SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
STEMMING FROM A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE BUT STILL IN THE MID
40S TO MID 50S.

THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE DAY...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST.  THE FRONT APPEARS
TO BE MOISTURE STARVED BY THE TIME IT MOVES INTO THE AREA SO EXPECT
NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS.  MAIN CONCERN WITH THE FRONT WILL BE
IT USHERING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE IN THE SENSIBLE WX THROUGH THE LONG TERM
CONTINUES TO BE TWO REASONABLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROFS. THE FIRST WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS MID LVL RIDGE
SLIDES W-E ACROSS THE CONUS...YIELDING RISING HEIGHTS AND MORE
ZONAL FLOW. HOWEVER...THE NEAR HUDSON BAY CUTOFF HOLDS EVEN AS THE
HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS SRN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST...SO...WHEN A
SECOND STRONG/COLD SHORTWAVE SLIDES OUT OF THE ALASKAN
REGION...THE LONGWAVE TROF REDEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THEREFORE...EXPECT...AFTER A COOL END OF THE WORK WEEK...A PERIOD
OF WARMING AND MILDER WX FOR THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
RETURN TO COOL CONDITIONS BY THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK. GIVEN
BOTH ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE HAS GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
THESE SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES...WILL USE A BLEND AS A BASELINE FOR
THIS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...
POTENTIAL FOR THE COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THU...BUT ALLOW FOR GRADUAL
CLEARING WITH COLD HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THU NIGHT. DWPTS SHOULD
FALL BACK INTO THE 30S...SO ASSUMING CLEARING OCCURS QUICKLY
ENOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING...TEMPS COULD FALL INTO THE MID
30S IN NW MA/SW NH VALLEYS WHICH MAY REQUIRE FROST ADVISORIES.
ELSEWHERE...STILL A COOL MORNING FRI...UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S
POSSIBLE. THIS COOL START AND HIGH PRES MEANS DRY WX WITH HIGHS
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S IN THE WARMEST SPOTS. GOOD
SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AGAIN FRI NIGHT...BUT RETURN FLOW
AND RISING DWPTS MAY MEAN MINS ARE A BIT WARMER THAN THU NIGHT.

SAT AND SUN...
WEAK WARM FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION ON SAT. AT THIS
POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH SUBSIDENCE
SUPPRESSING ANY WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. SO WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY. IN FACT...SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN A LOW PRES MOVING
THROUGH SRN CANADA...AND OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE
WEEKEND IS LIKELY TO YIELD MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.
MODELS DO INDICATE THIS AS AN INVERTED RIDGE FROM HIGH PRES IN THE
MARITIMES. OTHERWISE...RISING HEIGHTS AND H85 TEMPS APPROACHING
+12C ON SAT...THEN +14C ON SUN SUGGEST TEMPS RISE ABOVE NORMAL BY
SUN. THEREFORE...LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S ARE EXPECTED
SAT...REACHING CLOSE TO 80 BY SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN SYSTEM WILL CROSS THERE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD. STILL A FEW ISSUES TO WORK OUT REGARDING
TIMING. HOWEVER...WITH AT LEAST MODEST PWATS /AROUND 1.5 INCHES/
AND SOME LIFT SUSPECT A PERIOD OF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE. ECMWF GOES BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN A DRY AND
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A WET ONE WITH SECONDARY LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT.
BUT FEEL THAT AT LEAST SOME SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS ARE
WARRANTED...ESPECIALLY AS K-VALUES APPROACH 30.

TUE AND WED...
LONGWAVE TROF AND CUTOFF LOW PRES DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE
GREAT LAKES. MODELS INDICATE THAT THICKNESS VALUES COULD DROP TO
AROUND 540-550DM. THEREFORE...CONDITIONS LOOK RIPE FOR ANOTHER
COOL DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LINGERING FOG/STRATUS IN
SW NH IS RAPIDLY LIFTING AND DISSIPATING...AND VISIBILITIES
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THERE DURING LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH SOME OVERNIGHT FOG AT
TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS MAY LEAD TO IFR CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL
SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WITH INCREASING SEAS.
REGULAR FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN UNRELIABLE BUT HURRICANE WAVE
WATCH GUIDANCE LOOKS MUCH MORE REASONABLE SO HAVE USED THAT. EXPECT
SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET EXCEPT PERHAPS A FEW HOURS THURSDAY
MORNING. WINDS REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THU NIGHT FRI...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL BRING A
STRONGER NORTHEAST WIND WITH POTENTIAL FOR 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY
AROUND NANTUCKET AND ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. SEAS MAY INCREASE
TO 4-6 FEET IN THIS NORTHEAST FLOW...DIMINISHING AS THE WINDS
DIMINISH FRIDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR
SEAS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES. THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTH SATURDAY AND SOUTHWEST SUNDAY. GUSTS
20-25 KTS BOTH DAYS WITH POTENTIAL FOR 25 KNOT GUSTS ON SUNDAY.
MOST SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET...BUT THE WATERS EAST OF MASS
BAY AND IPSWICH BAY MAY SEE SEAS RISE AGAIN TO AROUND 5 FEET.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/RLG
NEAR TERM...DOODY/RLG/NMB
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...DOODY/RLG/NMB
MARINE...DOODY/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 171401
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1001 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SOME FROST IS POSSIBLE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN SOME AREAS. THE HIGH WILL THEN SLIP
OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND IT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO. LINGERING VALLEY FOG/STRATUS IN SW NH WILL
RAPIDLY LIFT/DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED TODAY. FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK...ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS. TEMPS
EXPECTED TO MAX OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA...SLIGHTLY COOLER OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE INTERIOR.
COASTAL SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
STEMMING FROM A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE BUT STILL IN THE MID
40S TO MID 50S.

THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE DAY...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST.  THE FRONT APPEARS
TO BE MOISTURE STARVED BY THE TIME IT MOVES INTO THE AREA SO EXPECT
NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS.  MAIN CONCERN WITH THE FRONT WILL BE
IT USHERING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE IN THE SENSIBLE WX THROUGH THE LONG TERM
CONTINUES TO BE TWO REASONABLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROFS. THE FIRST WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS MID LVL RIDGE
SLIDES W-E ACROSS THE CONUS...YIELDING RISING HEIGHTS AND MORE
ZONAL FLOW. HOWEVER...THE NEAR HUDSON BAY CUTOFF HOLDS EVEN AS THE
HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS SRN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST...SO...WHEN A
SECOND STRONG/COLD SHORTWAVE SLIDES OUT OF THE ALASKAN
REGION...THE LONGWAVE TROF REDEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THEREFORE...EXPECT...AFTER A COOL END OF THE WORK WEEK...A PERIOD
OF WARMING AND MILDER WX FOR THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
RETURN TO COOL CONDITIONS BY THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK. GIVEN
BOTH ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE HAS GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
THESE SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES...WILL USE A BLEND AS A BASELINE FOR
THIS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...
POTENTIAL FOR THE COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THU...BUT ALLOW FOR GRADUAL
CLEARING WITH COLD HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THU NIGHT. DWPTS SHOULD
FALL BACK INTO THE 30S...SO ASSUMING CLEARING OCCURS QUICKLY
ENOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING...TEMPS COULD FALL INTO THE MID
30S IN NW MA/SW NH VALLEYS WHICH MAY REQUIRE FROST ADVISORIES.
ELSEWHERE...STILL A COOL MORNING FRI...UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S
POSSIBLE. THIS COOL START AND HIGH PRES MEANS DRY WX WITH HIGHS
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S IN THE WARMEST SPOTS. GOOD
SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AGAIN FRI NIGHT...BUT RETURN FLOW
AND RISING DWPTS MAY MEAN MINS ARE A BIT WARMER THAN THU NIGHT.

SAT AND SUN...
WEAK WARM FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION ON SAT. AT THIS
POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH SUBSIDENCE
SUPPRESSING ANY WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. SO WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY. IN FACT...SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN A LOW PRES MOVING
THROUGH SRN CANADA...AND OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE
WEEKEND IS LIKELY TO YIELD MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.
MODELS DO INDICATE THIS AS AN INVERTED RIDGE FROM HIGH PRES IN THE
MARITIMES. OTHERWISE...RISING HEIGHTS AND H85 TEMPS APPROACHING
+12C ON SAT...THEN +14C ON SUN SUGGEST TEMPS RISE ABOVE NORMAL BY
SUN. THEREFORE...LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S ARE EXPECTED
SAT...REACHING CLOSE TO 80 BY SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN SYSTEM WILL CROSS THERE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD. STILL A FEW ISSUES TO WORK OUT REGARDING
TIMING. HOWEVER...WITH AT LEAST MODEST PWATS /AROUND 1.5 INCHES/
AND SOME LIFT SUSPECT A PERIOD OF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE. ECMWF GOES BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN A DRY AND
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A WET ONE WITH SECONDARY LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT.
BUT FEEL THAT AT LEAST SOME SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS ARE
WARRANTED...ESPECIALLY AS K-VALUES APPROACH 30.

TUE AND WED...
LONGWAVE TROF AND CUTOFF LOW PRES DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE
GREAT LAKES. MODELS INDICATE THAT THICKNESS VALUES COULD DROP TO
AROUND 540-550DM. THEREFORE...CONDITIONS LOOK RIPE FOR ANOTHER
COOL DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LINGERING FOG/STRATUS IN
SW NH IS RAPIDLY LIFTING AND DISSIPATING...AND VISIBILITIES
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THERE DURING LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH SOME OVERNIGHT FOG AT
TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS MAY LEAD TO IFR CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL
SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WITH INCREASING SEAS.
REGULAR FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN UNRELIABLE BUT HURRICANE WAVE
WATCH GUIDANCE LOOKS MUCH MORE REASONABLE SO HAVE USED THAT. EXPECT
SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET EXCEPT PERHAPS A FEW HOURS THURSDAY
MORNING. WINDS REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THU NIGHT FRI...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL BRING A
STRONGER NORTHEAST WIND WITH POTENTIAL FOR 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY
AROUND NANTUCKET AND ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. SEAS MAY INCREASE
TO 4-6 FEET IN THIS NORTHEAST FLOW...DIMINISHING AS THE WINDS
DIMINISH FRIDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR
SEAS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES. THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTH SATURDAY AND SOUTHWEST SUNDAY. GUSTS
20-25 KTS BOTH DAYS WITH POTENTIAL FOR 25 KNOT GUSTS ON SUNDAY.
MOST SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET...BUT THE WATERS EAST OF MASS
BAY AND IPSWICH BAY MAY SEE SEAS RISE AGAIN TO AROUND 5 FEET.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/RLG
NEAR TERM...DOODY/RLG/NMB
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...DOODY/RLG/NMB
MARINE...DOODY/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 171121
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
721 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SOME FROST IS POSSIBLE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN SOME AREAS. THE HIGH WILL THEN SLIP
OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND IT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
ASIDE FROM A FEW REMAINING PATCHES OF FOG ACROSS THE
REGION...MAINLY SKC CONDITIONS AWAY FROM THE S COAST...WHERE SOME
CI FROM AN OFFSHORE SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH. THEREFORE...PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE TO GO AROUND...WHICH WILL LEAD TO A RAPID INCREASE IN
TEMPS THIS MORNING EVEN AFTER THE COOL START. CURRENT FORECAST
STILL REFLECTS THESE TRENDS NICELY...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED
WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

CALM WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND A BIT OF LEFTOVER MOISTURE FROM THE
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS YESTERDAY HAS ALLOWED PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FOG IS LOCALLY DENSE...REDUCING
VISIBILITIES BELOW A MILE IN MANY LOCATIONS AND BELOW A QUARTER OF
A MILE IN SOME AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO.  EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
STEMMING FROM A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE BUT STILL IN THE MID
40S TO MID 50S.

THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE DAY...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST.  THE FRONT APPEARS
TO BE MOISTURE STARVED BY THE TIME IT MOVES INTO THE AREA SO EXPECT
NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS.  MAIN CONCERN WITH THE FRONT WILL BE
IT USHERING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE IN THE SENSIBLE WX THROUGH THE LONG TERM
CONTINUES TO BE TWO REASONABLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROFS. THE FIRST WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS MID LVL RIDGE
SLIDES W-E ACROSS THE CONUS...YIELDING RISING HEIGHTS AND MORE
ZONAL FLOW. HOWEVER...THE NEAR HUDSON BAY CUTOFF HOLDS EVEN AS THE
HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS SRN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST...SO...WHEN A
SECOND STRONG/COLD SHORTWAVE SLIDES OUT OF THE ALASKAN
REGION...THE LONGWAVE TROF REDEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THEREFORE...EXPECT...AFTER A COOL END OF THE WORK WEEK...A PERIOD
OF WARMING AND MILDER WX FOR THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
RETURN TO COOL CONDITIONS BY THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK. GIVEN
BOTH ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE HAS GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
THESE SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES...WILL USE A BLEND AS A BASELINE FOR
THIS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...
POTENTIAL FOR THE COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THU...BUT ALLOW FOR GRADUAL
CLEARING WITH COLD HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THU NIGHT. DWPTS SHOULD
FALL BACK INTO THE 30S...SO ASSUMING CLEARING OCCURS QUICKLY
ENOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING...TEMPS COULD FALL INTO THE MID
30S IN NW MA/SW NH VALLEYS WHICH MAY REQUIRE FROST ADVISORIES.
ELSEWHERE...STILL A COOL MORNING FRI...UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S
POSSIBLE. THIS COOL START AND HIGH PRES MEANS DRY WX WITH HIGHS
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S IN THE WARMEST SPOTS. GOOD
SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AGAIN FRI NIGHT...BUT RETURN FLOW
AND RISING DWPTS MAY MEAN MINS ARE A BIT WARMER THAN THU NIGHT.

SAT AND SUN...
WEAK WARM FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION ON SAT. AT THIS
POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH SUBSIDENCE
SUPPRESSING ANY WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. SO WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY. IN FACT...SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN A LOW PRES MOVING
THROUGH SRN CANADA...AND OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE
WEEKEND IS LIKELY TO YIELD MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.
MODELS DO INDICATE THIS AS AN INVERTED RIDGE FROM HIGH PRES IN THE
MARITIMES. OTHERWISE...RISING HEIGHTS AND H85 TEMPS APPROACHING
+12C ON SAT...THEN +14C ON SUN SUGGEST TEMPS RISE ABOVE NORMAL BY
SUN. THEREFORE...LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S ARE EXPECTED
SAT...REACHING CLOSE TO 80 BY SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN SYSTEM WILL CROSS THERE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD. STILL A FEW ISSUES TO WORK OUT REGARDING
TIMING. HOWEVER...WITH AT LEAST MODEST PWATS /AROUND 1.5 INCHES/
AND SOME LIFT SUSPECT A PERIOD OF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE. ECMWF GOES BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN A DRY AND
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A WET ONE WITH SECONDARY LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT.
BUT FEEL THAT AT LEAST SOME SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS ARE
WARRANTED...ESPECIALLY AS K-VALUES APPROACH 30.

TUE AND WED...
LONGWAVE TROF AND CUTOFF LOW PRES DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE
GREAT LAKES. MODELS INDICATE THAT THICKNESS VALUES COULD DROP TO
AROUND 540-550DM. THEREFORE...CONDITIONS LOOK RIPE FOR ANOTHER
COOL DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO
MVFR/IFR.

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VISIBILITIES SHOULD
IMPROVE QUICKLY AS FOG DISSIPATES. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH SOME OVERNIGHT FOG AT
TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS MAY LEAD TO IFR CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL
SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WITH INCREASING SEAS.
REGULAR FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN UNRELIABLE BUT HURRICANE WAVE
WATCH GUIDANCE LOOKS MUCH MORE REASONABLE SO HAVE USED THAT. EXPECT
SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET EXCEPT PERHAPS A FEW HOURS THURSDAY
MORNING. WINDS REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THU NIGHT FRI...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL BRING A
STRONGER NORTHEAST WIND WITH POTENTIAL FOR 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY
AROUND NANTUCKET AND ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. SEAS MAY INCREASE
TO 4-6 FEET IN THIS NORTHEAST FLOW...DIMINISHING AS THE WINDS
DIMINISH FRIDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR
SEAS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES. THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTH SATURDAY AND SOUTHWEST SUNDAY. GUSTS
20-25 KTS BOTH DAYS WITH POTENTIAL FOR 25 KNOT GUSTS ON SUNDAY.
MOST SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET...BUT THE WATERS EAST OF MASS
BAY AND IPSWICH BAY MAY SEE SEAS RISE AGAIN TO AROUND 5 FEET.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/RLG
NEAR TERM...DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...DOODY/RLG
MARINE...DOODY/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 171121
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
721 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SOME FROST IS POSSIBLE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN SOME AREAS. THE HIGH WILL THEN SLIP
OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND IT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
ASIDE FROM A FEW REMAINING PATCHES OF FOG ACROSS THE
REGION...MAINLY SKC CONDITIONS AWAY FROM THE S COAST...WHERE SOME
CI FROM AN OFFSHORE SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH. THEREFORE...PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE TO GO AROUND...WHICH WILL LEAD TO A RAPID INCREASE IN
TEMPS THIS MORNING EVEN AFTER THE COOL START. CURRENT FORECAST
STILL REFLECTS THESE TRENDS NICELY...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED
WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

CALM WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND A BIT OF LEFTOVER MOISTURE FROM THE
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS YESTERDAY HAS ALLOWED PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FOG IS LOCALLY DENSE...REDUCING
VISIBILITIES BELOW A MILE IN MANY LOCATIONS AND BELOW A QUARTER OF
A MILE IN SOME AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO.  EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
STEMMING FROM A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE BUT STILL IN THE MID
40S TO MID 50S.

THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE DAY...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST.  THE FRONT APPEARS
TO BE MOISTURE STARVED BY THE TIME IT MOVES INTO THE AREA SO EXPECT
NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS.  MAIN CONCERN WITH THE FRONT WILL BE
IT USHERING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE IN THE SENSIBLE WX THROUGH THE LONG TERM
CONTINUES TO BE TWO REASONABLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROFS. THE FIRST WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS MID LVL RIDGE
SLIDES W-E ACROSS THE CONUS...YIELDING RISING HEIGHTS AND MORE
ZONAL FLOW. HOWEVER...THE NEAR HUDSON BAY CUTOFF HOLDS EVEN AS THE
HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS SRN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST...SO...WHEN A
SECOND STRONG/COLD SHORTWAVE SLIDES OUT OF THE ALASKAN
REGION...THE LONGWAVE TROF REDEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THEREFORE...EXPECT...AFTER A COOL END OF THE WORK WEEK...A PERIOD
OF WARMING AND MILDER WX FOR THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
RETURN TO COOL CONDITIONS BY THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK. GIVEN
BOTH ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE HAS GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
THESE SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES...WILL USE A BLEND AS A BASELINE FOR
THIS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...
POTENTIAL FOR THE COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THU...BUT ALLOW FOR GRADUAL
CLEARING WITH COLD HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THU NIGHT. DWPTS SHOULD
FALL BACK INTO THE 30S...SO ASSUMING CLEARING OCCURS QUICKLY
ENOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING...TEMPS COULD FALL INTO THE MID
30S IN NW MA/SW NH VALLEYS WHICH MAY REQUIRE FROST ADVISORIES.
ELSEWHERE...STILL A COOL MORNING FRI...UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S
POSSIBLE. THIS COOL START AND HIGH PRES MEANS DRY WX WITH HIGHS
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S IN THE WARMEST SPOTS. GOOD
SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AGAIN FRI NIGHT...BUT RETURN FLOW
AND RISING DWPTS MAY MEAN MINS ARE A BIT WARMER THAN THU NIGHT.

SAT AND SUN...
WEAK WARM FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION ON SAT. AT THIS
POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH SUBSIDENCE
SUPPRESSING ANY WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. SO WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY. IN FACT...SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN A LOW PRES MOVING
THROUGH SRN CANADA...AND OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE
WEEKEND IS LIKELY TO YIELD MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.
MODELS DO INDICATE THIS AS AN INVERTED RIDGE FROM HIGH PRES IN THE
MARITIMES. OTHERWISE...RISING HEIGHTS AND H85 TEMPS APPROACHING
+12C ON SAT...THEN +14C ON SUN SUGGEST TEMPS RISE ABOVE NORMAL BY
SUN. THEREFORE...LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S ARE EXPECTED
SAT...REACHING CLOSE TO 80 BY SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN SYSTEM WILL CROSS THERE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD. STILL A FEW ISSUES TO WORK OUT REGARDING
TIMING. HOWEVER...WITH AT LEAST MODEST PWATS /AROUND 1.5 INCHES/
AND SOME LIFT SUSPECT A PERIOD OF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE. ECMWF GOES BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN A DRY AND
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A WET ONE WITH SECONDARY LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT.
BUT FEEL THAT AT LEAST SOME SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS ARE
WARRANTED...ESPECIALLY AS K-VALUES APPROACH 30.

TUE AND WED...
LONGWAVE TROF AND CUTOFF LOW PRES DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE
GREAT LAKES. MODELS INDICATE THAT THICKNESS VALUES COULD DROP TO
AROUND 540-550DM. THEREFORE...CONDITIONS LOOK RIPE FOR ANOTHER
COOL DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO
MVFR/IFR.

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VISIBILITIES SHOULD
IMPROVE QUICKLY AS FOG DISSIPATES. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH SOME OVERNIGHT FOG AT
TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS MAY LEAD TO IFR CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL
SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WITH INCREASING SEAS.
REGULAR FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN UNRELIABLE BUT HURRICANE WAVE
WATCH GUIDANCE LOOKS MUCH MORE REASONABLE SO HAVE USED THAT. EXPECT
SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET EXCEPT PERHAPS A FEW HOURS THURSDAY
MORNING. WINDS REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THU NIGHT FRI...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL BRING A
STRONGER NORTHEAST WIND WITH POTENTIAL FOR 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY
AROUND NANTUCKET AND ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. SEAS MAY INCREASE
TO 4-6 FEET IN THIS NORTHEAST FLOW...DIMINISHING AS THE WINDS
DIMINISH FRIDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR
SEAS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES. THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTH SATURDAY AND SOUTHWEST SUNDAY. GUSTS
20-25 KTS BOTH DAYS WITH POTENTIAL FOR 25 KNOT GUSTS ON SUNDAY.
MOST SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET...BUT THE WATERS EAST OF MASS
BAY AND IPSWICH BAY MAY SEE SEAS RISE AGAIN TO AROUND 5 FEET.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/RLG
NEAR TERM...DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...DOODY/RLG
MARINE...DOODY/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 170741
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
341 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SOME FROST IS POSSIBLE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN SOME AREAS. THE HIGH WILL THEN SLIP
OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND IT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CALM WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND A BIT OF LEFTOVER MOISTURE FROM THE
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS YESTERDAY HAS ALLOWED PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FOG IS LOCALLY DENSE...REDUCING
VISIBILITIES BELOW A MILE IN MANY LOCATIONS AND BELOW A QUARTER OF
A MILE IN SOME AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO.  EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
STEMMING FROM A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE BUT STILL IN THE MID
40S TO MID 50S.

THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE DAY...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST.  THE FRONT APPEARS
TO BE MOISTURE STARVED BY THE TIME IT MOVES INTO THE AREA SO EXPECT
NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS.  MAIN CONCERN WITH THE FRONT WILL BE
IT USHERING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE IN THE SENSIBLE WX THROUGH THE LONG TERM
CONTINUES TO BE TWO REASONABLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROFS. THE FIRST WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS MID LVL RIDGE
SLIDES W-E ACROSS THE CONUS...YIELDING RISING HEIGHTS AND MORE
ZONAL FLOW. HOWEVER...THE NEAR HUDSON BAY CUTOFF HOLDS EVEN AS THE
HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS SRN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST...SO...WHEN A
SECOND STRONG/COLD SHORTWAVE SLIDES OUT OF THE ALASKAN
REGION...THE LONGWAVE TROF REDEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THEREFORE...EXPECT...AFTER A COOL END OF THE WORK WEEK...A PERIOD
OF WARMING AND MILDER WX FOR THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
RETURN TO COOL CONDITIONS BY THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK. GIVEN
BOTH ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE HAS GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
THESE SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES...WILL USE A BLEND AS A BASELINE FOR
THIS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...
POTENTIAL FOR THE COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THU...BUT ALLOW FOR GRADUAL
CLEARING WITH COLD HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THU NIGHT. DWPTS SHOULD
FALL BACK INTO THE 30S...SO ASSUMING CLEARING OCCURS QUICKLY
ENOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING...TEMPS COULD FALL INTO THE MID
30S IN NW MA/SW NH VALLEYS WHICH MAY REQUIRE FROST ADVISORIES.
ELSEWHERE...STILL A COOL MORNING FRI...UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S
POSSIBLE. THIS COOL START AND HIGH PRES MEANS DRY WX WITH HIGHS
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S IN THE WARMEST SPOTS. GOOD
SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AGAIN FRI NIGHT...BUT RETURN FLOW
AND RISING DWPTS MAY MEAN MINS ARE A BIT WARMER THAN THU NIGHT.

SAT AND SUN...
WEAK WARM FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION ON SAT. AT THIS
POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH SUBSIDENCE
SUPPRESSING ANY WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. SO WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY. IN FACT...SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN A LOW PRES MOVING
THROUGH SRN CANADA...AND OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE
WEEKEND IS LIKELY TO YIELD MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.
MODELS DO INDICATE THIS AS AN INVERTED RIDGE FROM HIGH PRES IN THE
MARITIMES. OTHERWISE...RISING HEIGHTS AND H85 TEMPS APPROACHING
+12C ON SAT...THEN +14C ON SUN SUGGEST TEMPS RISE ABOVE NORMAL BY
SUN. THEREFORE...LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S ARE EXPECTED
SAT...REACHING CLOSE TO 80 BY SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN SYSTEM WILL CROSS THERE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD. STILL A FEW ISSUES TO WORK OUT REGARDING
TIMING. HOWEVER...WITH AT LEAST MODEST PWATS /AROUND 1.5 INCHES/
AND SOME LIFT SUSPECT A PERIOD OF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE. ECMWF GOES BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN A DRY AND
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A WET ONE WITH SECONDARY LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT.
BUT FEEL THAT AT LEAST SOME SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS ARE
WARRANTED...ESPECIALLY AS K-VALUES APPROACH 30.

TUE AND WED...
LONGWAVE TROF AND CUTOFF LOW PRES DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE
GREAT LAKES. MODELS INDICATE THAT THICKNESS VALUES COULD DROP TO
AROUND 540-550DM. THEREFORE...CONDITIONS LOOK RIPE FOR ANOTHER
COOL DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO
MVFR/IFR.

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VISIBILITIES SHOULD
IMPROVE QUICKLY AS FOG DISSIPATES. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH SOME OVERNIGHT FOG AT
TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS MAY LEAD TO IFR CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL
SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WITH INCREASING SEAS.
REGULAR FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN UNRELIABLE BUT HURRICANE WAVE
WATCH GUIDANCE LOOKS MUCH MORE REASONABLE SO HAVE USED THAT. EXPECT
SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET EXCEPT PERHAPS A FEW HOURS THURSDAY
MORNING. WINDS REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THU NIGHT FRI...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL BRING A
STRONGER NORTHEAST WIND WITH POTENTIAL FOR 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY
AROUND NANTUCKET AND ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. SEAS MAY INCREASE
TO 4-6 FEET IN THIS NORTHEAST FLOW...DIMINISHING AS THE WINDS
DIMINISH FRIDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR
SEAS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES. THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTH SATURDAY AND SOUTHWEST SUNDAY. GUSTS
20-25 KTS BOTH DAYS WITH POTENTIAL FOR 25 KNOT GUSTS ON SUNDAY.
MOST SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET...BUT THE WATERS EAST OF MASS
BAY AND IPSWICH BAY MAY SEE SEAS RISE AGAIN TO AROUND 5 FEET.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...DOODY/RLG
MARINE...DOODY/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 170741
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
341 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SOME FROST IS POSSIBLE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN SOME AREAS. THE HIGH WILL THEN SLIP
OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND IT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CALM WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND A BIT OF LEFTOVER MOISTURE FROM THE
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS YESTERDAY HAS ALLOWED PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FOG IS LOCALLY DENSE...REDUCING
VISIBILITIES BELOW A MILE IN MANY LOCATIONS AND BELOW A QUARTER OF
A MILE IN SOME AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO.  EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
STEMMING FROM A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE BUT STILL IN THE MID
40S TO MID 50S.

THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE DAY...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST.  THE FRONT APPEARS
TO BE MOISTURE STARVED BY THE TIME IT MOVES INTO THE AREA SO EXPECT
NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS.  MAIN CONCERN WITH THE FRONT WILL BE
IT USHERING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE IN THE SENSIBLE WX THROUGH THE LONG TERM
CONTINUES TO BE TWO REASONABLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROFS. THE FIRST WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS MID LVL RIDGE
SLIDES W-E ACROSS THE CONUS...YIELDING RISING HEIGHTS AND MORE
ZONAL FLOW. HOWEVER...THE NEAR HUDSON BAY CUTOFF HOLDS EVEN AS THE
HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS SRN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST...SO...WHEN A
SECOND STRONG/COLD SHORTWAVE SLIDES OUT OF THE ALASKAN
REGION...THE LONGWAVE TROF REDEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THEREFORE...EXPECT...AFTER A COOL END OF THE WORK WEEK...A PERIOD
OF WARMING AND MILDER WX FOR THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
RETURN TO COOL CONDITIONS BY THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK. GIVEN
BOTH ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE HAS GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
THESE SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES...WILL USE A BLEND AS A BASELINE FOR
THIS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...
POTENTIAL FOR THE COOLEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THU...BUT ALLOW FOR GRADUAL
CLEARING WITH COLD HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THU NIGHT. DWPTS SHOULD
FALL BACK INTO THE 30S...SO ASSUMING CLEARING OCCURS QUICKLY
ENOUGH WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING...TEMPS COULD FALL INTO THE MID
30S IN NW MA/SW NH VALLEYS WHICH MAY REQUIRE FROST ADVISORIES.
ELSEWHERE...STILL A COOL MORNING FRI...UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S
POSSIBLE. THIS COOL START AND HIGH PRES MEANS DRY WX WITH HIGHS
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S IN THE WARMEST SPOTS. GOOD
SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AGAIN FRI NIGHT...BUT RETURN FLOW
AND RISING DWPTS MAY MEAN MINS ARE A BIT WARMER THAN THU NIGHT.

SAT AND SUN...
WEAK WARM FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION ON SAT. AT THIS
POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH SUBSIDENCE
SUPPRESSING ANY WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. SO WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY. IN FACT...SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN A LOW PRES MOVING
THROUGH SRN CANADA...AND OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE
WEEKEND IS LIKELY TO YIELD MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.
MODELS DO INDICATE THIS AS AN INVERTED RIDGE FROM HIGH PRES IN THE
MARITIMES. OTHERWISE...RISING HEIGHTS AND H85 TEMPS APPROACHING
+12C ON SAT...THEN +14C ON SUN SUGGEST TEMPS RISE ABOVE NORMAL BY
SUN. THEREFORE...LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S ARE EXPECTED
SAT...REACHING CLOSE TO 80 BY SUN.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN SYSTEM WILL CROSS THERE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD. STILL A FEW ISSUES TO WORK OUT REGARDING
TIMING. HOWEVER...WITH AT LEAST MODEST PWATS /AROUND 1.5 INCHES/
AND SOME LIFT SUSPECT A PERIOD OF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE. ECMWF GOES BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN A DRY AND
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A WET ONE WITH SECONDARY LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT.
BUT FEEL THAT AT LEAST SOME SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS ARE
WARRANTED...ESPECIALLY AS K-VALUES APPROACH 30.

TUE AND WED...
LONGWAVE TROF AND CUTOFF LOW PRES DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE
GREAT LAKES. MODELS INDICATE THAT THICKNESS VALUES COULD DROP TO
AROUND 540-550DM. THEREFORE...CONDITIONS LOOK RIPE FOR ANOTHER
COOL DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO
MVFR/IFR.

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VISIBILITIES SHOULD
IMPROVE QUICKLY AS FOG DISSIPATES. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH SOME OVERNIGHT FOG AT
TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS MAY LEAD TO IFR CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL
SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WITH INCREASING SEAS.
REGULAR FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN UNRELIABLE BUT HURRICANE WAVE
WATCH GUIDANCE LOOKS MUCH MORE REASONABLE SO HAVE USED THAT. EXPECT
SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET EXCEPT PERHAPS A FEW HOURS THURSDAY
MORNING. WINDS REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THU NIGHT FRI...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL BRING A
STRONGER NORTHEAST WIND WITH POTENTIAL FOR 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY
AROUND NANTUCKET AND ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. SEAS MAY INCREASE
TO 4-6 FEET IN THIS NORTHEAST FLOW...DIMINISHING AS THE WINDS
DIMINISH FRIDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR
SEAS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES. THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTH SATURDAY AND SOUTHWEST SUNDAY. GUSTS
20-25 KTS BOTH DAYS WITH POTENTIAL FOR 25 KNOT GUSTS ON SUNDAY.
MOST SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET...BUT THE WATERS EAST OF MASS
BAY AND IPSWICH BAY MAY SEE SEAS RISE AGAIN TO AROUND 5 FEET.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...DOODY/RLG
MARINE...DOODY/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 170652
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
252 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SOME FROST IS POSSIBLE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN SOME AREAS. THE HIGH WILL THEN SLIP
OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND IT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CALM WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND A BIT OF LEFTOVER MOISTURE FROM THE
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS YESTERDAY HAS ALLOWED PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FOG IS LOCALLY DENSE...REDUCING
VISIBILITIES BELOW A MILE IN MANY LOCATIONS AND BELOW A QUARTER OF
A MILE IN SOME AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO.  EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
STEMMING FROM A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE BUT STILL IN THE MID
40S TO MID 50S.

THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE DAY...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST.  THE FRONT APPEARS
TO BE MOISTURE STARVED BY THE TIME IT MOVES INTO THE AREA SO EXPECT
NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS.  MAIN CONCERN WITH THE FRONT WILL BE
IT USHERING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST USA MOVES OFF BY
FRIDAY WITH THE FLOW CONVERTING TO ZONAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
SHORTWAVE FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA MERGES WITH ENERGY FROM THE
CANADIAN ARCTIC LATE WEEK WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
PACIFIC COAST. BOTH OF THESE ACTIONS WILL DIG AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES...WHICH MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST USA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER HEIGHTS ARE BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY-FRIDAY BUT MODERATE TO 60
METERS ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY. THIS SUGGESTS A COOL FINISH TO THE
WEEK FOLLOWED BY A SMALL WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN
COOLING AGAIN BY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLDER TEMPS ALOFT
MOVE BACK IN.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY... UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
PUSHES A WEAK SECONDARY FRONT THROUGH.  SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SOME
CLOUDS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. BUT COLD ADVECTION ALOFT
IS WEAK AS IS INSTABILITY...TOTALS IN THE MID 40S AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES A LITTLE OVER 5.5C/KM...SO WE/RE NOT BIG ON CONVECTION.
MOST LIKELY A FEW SHOWERS. TEMPS AT 850 MB 5-7C SUPPORT MAX TEMPS
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW RADIATIONAL COOLING. DEW POINTS WILL BE IN
THE 30S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND LOW 40S COAST AND ISLANDS. EXPECT
MIN TEMPS 35-40 AWAY FROM THE COAST AND 40S ALONG THE COAST. IF MVY
AIRPORT DECOUPLES...IT WILL BE NEAR 40 OR LOW 40S.

THESE TEMPS WILL MEAN A POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST. MOSTLY LIKELY
AREAS WOULD BE SOUTHWEST NH AND NORTHWEST MASS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY SHIFTS EAST
SATURDAY...BUT PROVIDES DRY WEATHER BOTH DAYS. LIGHT WINDS
FRIDAY...DEVELOPING SOUTH WIND SATURDAY. MODEL WIND GUSTS FOR
SATURDAY DO NOT REFLECT WINDS ALOFT IN THE MIXED LAYER. SO WE BUMPED
VALUES UP TO NEAR 20 KTS.

FRIDAY TEMPS ALOFT 0-2C SUPPORTS MAX SFC TEMPS UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...SATURDAY TEMPS ALOFT 4-6C SUPPORTS MAX SFC TEMPS MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S. RADIATIONAL COOLING AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT BUT DEW POINTS
WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER...35-45...SO MIN SFC TEMPS UPPER 30S AND
40S. SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING HIGHER DEW POINTS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
MIN TEMPS UPPER 40S AND 50S.

SUNDAY... INCREASING SOUTH WIND SUNDAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. BUT THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH
PLENTY OF SUN. MODEL GUST FORECASTS ARE AGAIN LOWER THAN THE MIXED
LAYER WOULD SUGGEST. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOW A GUST POTENTIAL TO 25
KNOTS AND POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS. WE BUMPED THE SUNDAY WIND
GUSTS UP INTO THE LOW 20S. TEMPS ALOFT AROUND 10C AND POSSIBLY TO
12C. THIS MEANS MID TO UPPER 70S...AND WITH SUFFICIENT MIXING
THERE MAY BE SOME SPOTS WITH LOW 80S. SOUTHWEST WIND MAY BUFFER
THESE VALUES WHERE IT COMES OFF THE OCEAN.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA EARLY MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY. BEST DYNAMICS MOVE FROM NEW YORK UP THROUGH
VERMONT. BUT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE TO
FORECAST SHOWERS WITH COLD FROPA.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...COLDER AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
MEANWHILE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH
COOLING TEMPS ALOFT. TEMPS ALOFT 0-2C SUPPORTING UPPER 50S TO MID
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO
MVFR/IFR.

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VISIBILITIES SHOULD
IMPROVE QUICKLY AS FOG DISSIPATES. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.  SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY MAY GUST TO 20
KNOTS. SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY MAY GUST 25 KNOTS...POSSIBLY A LITTLE
HIGHER.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL
SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WITH INCREASING SEAS.
REGULAR FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN UNRELIABLE BUT HURRICANE WAVE
WATCH GUIDANCE LOOKS MUCH MORE REASONABLE SO HAVE USED THAT. EXPECT
SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET EXCEPT PERHAPS A FEW HOURS THURSDAY
MORNING. WINDS REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS. NORTH
WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS. LINGERING 5 FEET ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS
FROM SWELL...BUT THIS WILL BE SUBSIDING.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL BRING A STRONGER
NORTHEAST WIND WITH POTENTIAL FOR 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY AROUND
NANTUCKET AND ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 5-
7 FEET IN THIS NORTHEAST FLOW...DIMINISHING AS THE WINDS DIMINISH
FRIDAY EVENING.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES. THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTH SATURDAY AND SOUTHWEST SUNDAY. GUSTS TO 20
KNOTS BOTH DAYS WITH POTENTIAL FOR 25 KNOT GUSTS ON SUNDAY. MOST
SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET...BUT THE WATERS EAST OF MASS BAY AND
IPSWICH BAY MAY SEE SEAS RISE AGAIN TO AROUND 5 FEET.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 170652
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
252 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SOME FROST IS POSSIBLE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN SOME AREAS. THE HIGH WILL THEN SLIP
OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND IT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CALM WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND A BIT OF LEFTOVER MOISTURE FROM THE
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS YESTERDAY HAS ALLOWED PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FOG IS LOCALLY DENSE...REDUCING
VISIBILITIES BELOW A MILE IN MANY LOCATIONS AND BELOW A QUARTER OF
A MILE IN SOME AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO.  EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
STEMMING FROM A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE BUT STILL IN THE MID
40S TO MID 50S.

THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE DAY...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST.  THE FRONT APPEARS
TO BE MOISTURE STARVED BY THE TIME IT MOVES INTO THE AREA SO EXPECT
NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS.  MAIN CONCERN WITH THE FRONT WILL BE
IT USHERING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST USA MOVES OFF BY
FRIDAY WITH THE FLOW CONVERTING TO ZONAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
SHORTWAVE FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA MERGES WITH ENERGY FROM THE
CANADIAN ARCTIC LATE WEEK WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
PACIFIC COAST. BOTH OF THESE ACTIONS WILL DIG AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES...WHICH MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST USA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER HEIGHTS ARE BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY-FRIDAY BUT MODERATE TO 60
METERS ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY. THIS SUGGESTS A COOL FINISH TO THE
WEEK FOLLOWED BY A SMALL WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN
COOLING AGAIN BY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLDER TEMPS ALOFT
MOVE BACK IN.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY... UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
PUSHES A WEAK SECONDARY FRONT THROUGH.  SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SOME
CLOUDS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. BUT COLD ADVECTION ALOFT
IS WEAK AS IS INSTABILITY...TOTALS IN THE MID 40S AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES A LITTLE OVER 5.5C/KM...SO WE/RE NOT BIG ON CONVECTION.
MOST LIKELY A FEW SHOWERS. TEMPS AT 850 MB 5-7C SUPPORT MAX TEMPS
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW RADIATIONAL COOLING. DEW POINTS WILL BE IN
THE 30S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND LOW 40S COAST AND ISLANDS. EXPECT
MIN TEMPS 35-40 AWAY FROM THE COAST AND 40S ALONG THE COAST. IF MVY
AIRPORT DECOUPLES...IT WILL BE NEAR 40 OR LOW 40S.

THESE TEMPS WILL MEAN A POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST. MOSTLY LIKELY
AREAS WOULD BE SOUTHWEST NH AND NORTHWEST MASS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY SHIFTS EAST
SATURDAY...BUT PROVIDES DRY WEATHER BOTH DAYS. LIGHT WINDS
FRIDAY...DEVELOPING SOUTH WIND SATURDAY. MODEL WIND GUSTS FOR
SATURDAY DO NOT REFLECT WINDS ALOFT IN THE MIXED LAYER. SO WE BUMPED
VALUES UP TO NEAR 20 KTS.

FRIDAY TEMPS ALOFT 0-2C SUPPORTS MAX SFC TEMPS UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...SATURDAY TEMPS ALOFT 4-6C SUPPORTS MAX SFC TEMPS MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S. RADIATIONAL COOLING AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT BUT DEW POINTS
WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER...35-45...SO MIN SFC TEMPS UPPER 30S AND
40S. SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING HIGHER DEW POINTS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
MIN TEMPS UPPER 40S AND 50S.

SUNDAY... INCREASING SOUTH WIND SUNDAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. BUT THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH
PLENTY OF SUN. MODEL GUST FORECASTS ARE AGAIN LOWER THAN THE MIXED
LAYER WOULD SUGGEST. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOW A GUST POTENTIAL TO 25
KNOTS AND POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS. WE BUMPED THE SUNDAY WIND
GUSTS UP INTO THE LOW 20S. TEMPS ALOFT AROUND 10C AND POSSIBLY TO
12C. THIS MEANS MID TO UPPER 70S...AND WITH SUFFICIENT MIXING
THERE MAY BE SOME SPOTS WITH LOW 80S. SOUTHWEST WIND MAY BUFFER
THESE VALUES WHERE IT COMES OFF THE OCEAN.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA EARLY MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY. BEST DYNAMICS MOVE FROM NEW YORK UP THROUGH
VERMONT. BUT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE TO
FORECAST SHOWERS WITH COLD FROPA.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...COLDER AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
MEANWHILE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH
COOLING TEMPS ALOFT. TEMPS ALOFT 0-2C SUPPORTING UPPER 50S TO MID
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO
MVFR/IFR.

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VISIBILITIES SHOULD
IMPROVE QUICKLY AS FOG DISSIPATES. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.  SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY MAY GUST TO 20
KNOTS. SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY MAY GUST 25 KNOTS...POSSIBLY A LITTLE
HIGHER.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL
SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WITH INCREASING SEAS.
REGULAR FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN UNRELIABLE BUT HURRICANE WAVE
WATCH GUIDANCE LOOKS MUCH MORE REASONABLE SO HAVE USED THAT. EXPECT
SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET EXCEPT PERHAPS A FEW HOURS THURSDAY
MORNING. WINDS REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS. NORTH
WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS. LINGERING 5 FEET ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS
FROM SWELL...BUT THIS WILL BE SUBSIDING.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL BRING A STRONGER
NORTHEAST WIND WITH POTENTIAL FOR 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY AROUND
NANTUCKET AND ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 5-
7 FEET IN THIS NORTHEAST FLOW...DIMINISHING AS THE WINDS DIMINISH
FRIDAY EVENING.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES. THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTH SATURDAY AND SOUTHWEST SUNDAY. GUSTS TO 20
KNOTS BOTH DAYS WITH POTENTIAL FOR 25 KNOT GUSTS ON SUNDAY. MOST
SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET...BUT THE WATERS EAST OF MASS BAY AND
IPSWICH BAY MAY SEE SEAS RISE AGAIN TO AROUND 5 FEET.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 170652
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
252 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SOME FROST IS POSSIBLE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN SOME AREAS. THE HIGH WILL THEN SLIP
OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND IT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CALM WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND A BIT OF LEFTOVER MOISTURE FROM THE
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS YESTERDAY HAS ALLOWED PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FOG IS LOCALLY DENSE...REDUCING
VISIBILITIES BELOW A MILE IN MANY LOCATIONS AND BELOW A QUARTER OF
A MILE IN SOME AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO.  EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
STEMMING FROM A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE BUT STILL IN THE MID
40S TO MID 50S.

THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE DAY...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST.  THE FRONT APPEARS
TO BE MOISTURE STARVED BY THE TIME IT MOVES INTO THE AREA SO EXPECT
NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS.  MAIN CONCERN WITH THE FRONT WILL BE
IT USHERING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST USA MOVES OFF BY
FRIDAY WITH THE FLOW CONVERTING TO ZONAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
SHORTWAVE FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA MERGES WITH ENERGY FROM THE
CANADIAN ARCTIC LATE WEEK WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
PACIFIC COAST. BOTH OF THESE ACTIONS WILL DIG AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES...WHICH MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST USA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER HEIGHTS ARE BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY-FRIDAY BUT MODERATE TO 60
METERS ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY. THIS SUGGESTS A COOL FINISH TO THE
WEEK FOLLOWED BY A SMALL WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN
COOLING AGAIN BY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLDER TEMPS ALOFT
MOVE BACK IN.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY... UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
PUSHES A WEAK SECONDARY FRONT THROUGH.  SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SOME
CLOUDS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. BUT COLD ADVECTION ALOFT
IS WEAK AS IS INSTABILITY...TOTALS IN THE MID 40S AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES A LITTLE OVER 5.5C/KM...SO WE/RE NOT BIG ON CONVECTION.
MOST LIKELY A FEW SHOWERS. TEMPS AT 850 MB 5-7C SUPPORT MAX TEMPS
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW RADIATIONAL COOLING. DEW POINTS WILL BE IN
THE 30S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND LOW 40S COAST AND ISLANDS. EXPECT
MIN TEMPS 35-40 AWAY FROM THE COAST AND 40S ALONG THE COAST. IF MVY
AIRPORT DECOUPLES...IT WILL BE NEAR 40 OR LOW 40S.

THESE TEMPS WILL MEAN A POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST. MOSTLY LIKELY
AREAS WOULD BE SOUTHWEST NH AND NORTHWEST MASS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY SHIFTS EAST
SATURDAY...BUT PROVIDES DRY WEATHER BOTH DAYS. LIGHT WINDS
FRIDAY...DEVELOPING SOUTH WIND SATURDAY. MODEL WIND GUSTS FOR
SATURDAY DO NOT REFLECT WINDS ALOFT IN THE MIXED LAYER. SO WE BUMPED
VALUES UP TO NEAR 20 KTS.

FRIDAY TEMPS ALOFT 0-2C SUPPORTS MAX SFC TEMPS UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...SATURDAY TEMPS ALOFT 4-6C SUPPORTS MAX SFC TEMPS MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S. RADIATIONAL COOLING AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT BUT DEW POINTS
WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER...35-45...SO MIN SFC TEMPS UPPER 30S AND
40S. SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING HIGHER DEW POINTS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
MIN TEMPS UPPER 40S AND 50S.

SUNDAY... INCREASING SOUTH WIND SUNDAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. BUT THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH
PLENTY OF SUN. MODEL GUST FORECASTS ARE AGAIN LOWER THAN THE MIXED
LAYER WOULD SUGGEST. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOW A GUST POTENTIAL TO 25
KNOTS AND POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS. WE BUMPED THE SUNDAY WIND
GUSTS UP INTO THE LOW 20S. TEMPS ALOFT AROUND 10C AND POSSIBLY TO
12C. THIS MEANS MID TO UPPER 70S...AND WITH SUFFICIENT MIXING
THERE MAY BE SOME SPOTS WITH LOW 80S. SOUTHWEST WIND MAY BUFFER
THESE VALUES WHERE IT COMES OFF THE OCEAN.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA EARLY MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY. BEST DYNAMICS MOVE FROM NEW YORK UP THROUGH
VERMONT. BUT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE TO
FORECAST SHOWERS WITH COLD FROPA.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...COLDER AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
MEANWHILE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH
COOLING TEMPS ALOFT. TEMPS ALOFT 0-2C SUPPORTING UPPER 50S TO MID
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO
MVFR/IFR.

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VISIBILITIES SHOULD
IMPROVE QUICKLY AS FOG DISSIPATES. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.  SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY MAY GUST TO 20
KNOTS. SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY MAY GUST 25 KNOTS...POSSIBLY A LITTLE
HIGHER.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL
SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WITH INCREASING SEAS.
REGULAR FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN UNRELIABLE BUT HURRICANE WAVE
WATCH GUIDANCE LOOKS MUCH MORE REASONABLE SO HAVE USED THAT. EXPECT
SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET EXCEPT PERHAPS A FEW HOURS THURSDAY
MORNING. WINDS REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS. NORTH
WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS. LINGERING 5 FEET ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS
FROM SWELL...BUT THIS WILL BE SUBSIDING.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL BRING A STRONGER
NORTHEAST WIND WITH POTENTIAL FOR 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY AROUND
NANTUCKET AND ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 5-
7 FEET IN THIS NORTHEAST FLOW...DIMINISHING AS THE WINDS DIMINISH
FRIDAY EVENING.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES. THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTH SATURDAY AND SOUTHWEST SUNDAY. GUSTS TO 20
KNOTS BOTH DAYS WITH POTENTIAL FOR 25 KNOT GUSTS ON SUNDAY. MOST
SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET...BUT THE WATERS EAST OF MASS BAY AND
IPSWICH BAY MAY SEE SEAS RISE AGAIN TO AROUND 5 FEET.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 170652
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
252 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SOME FROST IS POSSIBLE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN SOME AREAS. THE HIGH WILL THEN SLIP
OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND IT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CALM WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND A BIT OF LEFTOVER MOISTURE FROM THE
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS YESTERDAY HAS ALLOWED PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FOG IS LOCALLY DENSE...REDUCING
VISIBILITIES BELOW A MILE IN MANY LOCATIONS AND BELOW A QUARTER OF
A MILE IN SOME AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO.  EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
STEMMING FROM A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE BUT STILL IN THE MID
40S TO MID 50S.

THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE DAY...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST.  THE FRONT APPEARS
TO BE MOISTURE STARVED BY THE TIME IT MOVES INTO THE AREA SO EXPECT
NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS.  MAIN CONCERN WITH THE FRONT WILL BE
IT USHERING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST USA MOVES OFF BY
FRIDAY WITH THE FLOW CONVERTING TO ZONAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
SHORTWAVE FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA MERGES WITH ENERGY FROM THE
CANADIAN ARCTIC LATE WEEK WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
PACIFIC COAST. BOTH OF THESE ACTIONS WILL DIG AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES...WHICH MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST USA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER HEIGHTS ARE BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY-FRIDAY BUT MODERATE TO 60
METERS ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY. THIS SUGGESTS A COOL FINISH TO THE
WEEK FOLLOWED BY A SMALL WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN
COOLING AGAIN BY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLDER TEMPS ALOFT
MOVE BACK IN.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY... UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
PUSHES A WEAK SECONDARY FRONT THROUGH.  SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SOME
CLOUDS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. BUT COLD ADVECTION ALOFT
IS WEAK AS IS INSTABILITY...TOTALS IN THE MID 40S AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES A LITTLE OVER 5.5C/KM...SO WE/RE NOT BIG ON CONVECTION.
MOST LIKELY A FEW SHOWERS. TEMPS AT 850 MB 5-7C SUPPORT MAX TEMPS
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW RADIATIONAL COOLING. DEW POINTS WILL BE IN
THE 30S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND LOW 40S COAST AND ISLANDS. EXPECT
MIN TEMPS 35-40 AWAY FROM THE COAST AND 40S ALONG THE COAST. IF MVY
AIRPORT DECOUPLES...IT WILL BE NEAR 40 OR LOW 40S.

THESE TEMPS WILL MEAN A POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST. MOSTLY LIKELY
AREAS WOULD BE SOUTHWEST NH AND NORTHWEST MASS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY SHIFTS EAST
SATURDAY...BUT PROVIDES DRY WEATHER BOTH DAYS. LIGHT WINDS
FRIDAY...DEVELOPING SOUTH WIND SATURDAY. MODEL WIND GUSTS FOR
SATURDAY DO NOT REFLECT WINDS ALOFT IN THE MIXED LAYER. SO WE BUMPED
VALUES UP TO NEAR 20 KTS.

FRIDAY TEMPS ALOFT 0-2C SUPPORTS MAX SFC TEMPS UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...SATURDAY TEMPS ALOFT 4-6C SUPPORTS MAX SFC TEMPS MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S. RADIATIONAL COOLING AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT BUT DEW POINTS
WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER...35-45...SO MIN SFC TEMPS UPPER 30S AND
40S. SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING HIGHER DEW POINTS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
MIN TEMPS UPPER 40S AND 50S.

SUNDAY... INCREASING SOUTH WIND SUNDAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. BUT THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH
PLENTY OF SUN. MODEL GUST FORECASTS ARE AGAIN LOWER THAN THE MIXED
LAYER WOULD SUGGEST. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOW A GUST POTENTIAL TO 25
KNOTS AND POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS. WE BUMPED THE SUNDAY WIND
GUSTS UP INTO THE LOW 20S. TEMPS ALOFT AROUND 10C AND POSSIBLY TO
12C. THIS MEANS MID TO UPPER 70S...AND WITH SUFFICIENT MIXING
THERE MAY BE SOME SPOTS WITH LOW 80S. SOUTHWEST WIND MAY BUFFER
THESE VALUES WHERE IT COMES OFF THE OCEAN.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA EARLY MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY. BEST DYNAMICS MOVE FROM NEW YORK UP THROUGH
VERMONT. BUT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE TO
FORECAST SHOWERS WITH COLD FROPA.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...COLDER AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
MEANWHILE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH
COOLING TEMPS ALOFT. TEMPS ALOFT 0-2C SUPPORTING UPPER 50S TO MID
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO
MVFR/IFR.

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VISIBILITIES SHOULD
IMPROVE QUICKLY AS FOG DISSIPATES. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.  SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY MAY GUST TO 20
KNOTS. SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY MAY GUST 25 KNOTS...POSSIBLY A LITTLE
HIGHER.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SWELL FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL
SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WITH INCREASING SEAS.
REGULAR FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN UNRELIABLE BUT HURRICANE WAVE
WATCH GUIDANCE LOOKS MUCH MORE REASONABLE SO HAVE USED THAT. EXPECT
SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET EXCEPT PERHAPS A FEW HOURS THURSDAY
MORNING. WINDS REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS. NORTH
WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS. LINGERING 5 FEET ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS
FROM SWELL...BUT THIS WILL BE SUBSIDING.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL BRING A STRONGER
NORTHEAST WIND WITH POTENTIAL FOR 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY AROUND
NANTUCKET AND ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 5-
7 FEET IN THIS NORTHEAST FLOW...DIMINISHING AS THE WINDS DIMINISH
FRIDAY EVENING.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES. THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTH SATURDAY AND SOUTHWEST SUNDAY. GUSTS TO 20
KNOTS BOTH DAYS WITH POTENTIAL FOR 25 KNOT GUSTS ON SUNDAY. MOST
SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET...BUT THE WATERS EAST OF MASS BAY AND
IPSWICH BAY MAY SEE SEAS RISE AGAIN TO AROUND 5 FEET.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 170155
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
955 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SOME FROST IS POSSIBLE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN SOME AREAS. THE HIGH WILL THEN SLIP
OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND IT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. MADE A FEW MINOR UPDATES TO THE
TEMPERATURES AND SKY GRIDS TO BETTER TRACK THE CURRENT TRENDS.

THE CLEARING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR. DEW POINTS
UPSTREAM IN UPSTATE NEW YORK ARE IN THE 40S WITH A COUPLE OF HIGH
30S. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...WHICH
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 40S AWAY FROM THE COAST
AND POSSIBLY A FEW SPOTS IN WESTERN MASS/SOUTHWEST NH THAT REACH
THE UPPER 30S.

MOIST GROUND FROM DAYTIME SHOWERS AND TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR THE
DEW POINT WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY DENSE
FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE CT VALLEY AND ASSOCIATED VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUE. MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS. SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES. COOLER AIRMASS ALOFT
IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH H85 TEMPERATURES AROUND +5C WILL MAKE
IT FEEL LIKE A CRISP COOL DAY AT THE SURFACE WITH HIGHS AROUND THE
UPPER-60S TO LOW-70S...ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES BELOW-NORMAL. SCATTERED
DIURNAL CU AROUND 5 KFT ACROSS THE INTERIOR /ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN/...SANDWICHED BELOW A STOUT DRY-INVERSION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

ANOTHER NIGHT OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH LIGHT / VARIABLE WINDS. SOME
QUESTION AS TO WHETHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN CLEAR. POSSIBILITY OF
SOME HIGH CLOUDS FILTERING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD
FRONT DIVING S OUT OF E-CANADA /DECENT CYCLONIC FLOW AND JET-
DYNAMICS ALOFT/. THIS WOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND POTENTIAL
FOG DEVELOPMENT. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY AREAS OF FOG. WILL
HOLD WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF LOWS DOWN INTO THE 40S EXCEPT
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST USA MOVES OFF BY
FRIDAY WITH THE FLOW CONVERTING TO ZONAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
SHORTWAVE FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA MERGES WITH ENERGY FROM THE
CANADIAN ARCTIC LATE WEEK WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
PACIFIC COAST. BOTH OF THESE ACTIONS WILL DIG AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES...WHICH MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST USA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER HEIGHTS ARE BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY-FRIDAY BUT MODERATE TO 60
METERS ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY. THIS SUGGESTS A COOL FINISH TO THE
WEEK FOLLOWED BY A SMALL WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN
COOLING AGAIN BY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLDER TEMPS ALOFT
MOVE BACK IN.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY... UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
PUSHES A WEAK SECONDARY FRONT THROUGH.  SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SOME
CLOUDS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. BUT COLD ADVECTION ALOFT
IS WEAK AS IS INSTABILITY...TOTALS IN THE MID 40S AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES A LITTLE OVER 5.5C/KM...SO WE/RE NOT BIG ON CONVECTION.
MOST LIKELY A FEW SHOWERS. TEMPS AT 850 MB 5-7C SUPPORT MAX TEMPS
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW RADIATIONAL COOLING. DEW POINTS WILL BE IN
THE 30S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND LOW 40S COAST AND ISLANDS. EXPECT
MIN TEMPS 35-40 AWAY FROM THE COAST AND 40S ALONG THE COAST. IF MVY
AIRPORT DECOUPLES...IT WILL BE NEAR 40 OR LOW 40S.

THESE TEMPS WILL MEAN A POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST. MOSTLY LIKELY
AREAS WOULD BE SOUTHWEST NH AND NORTHWEST MASS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY SHIFTS EAST
SATURDAY...BUT PROVIDES DRY WEATHER BOTH DAYS. LIGHT WINDS
FRIDAY...DEVELOPING SOUTH WIND SATURDAY. MODEL WIND GUSTS FOR
SATURDAY DO NOT REFLECT WINDS ALOFT IN THE MIXED LAYER. SO WE BUMPED
VALUES UP TO NEAR 20 KTS.

FRIDAY TEMPS ALOFT 0-2C SUPPORTS MAX SFC TEMPS UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...SATURDAY TEMPS ALOFT 4-6C SUPPORTS MAX SFC TEMPS MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S. RADIATIONAL COOLING AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT BUT DEW POINTS
WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER...35-45...SO MIN SFC TEMPS UPPER 30S AND
40S. SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING HIGHER DEW POINTS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
MIN TEMPS UPPER 40S AND 50S.

SUNDAY... INCREASING SOUTH WIND SUNDAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. BUT THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH
PLENTY OF SUN. MODEL GUST FORECASTS ARE AGAIN LOWER THAN THE MIXED
LAYER WOULD SUGGEST. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOW A GUST POTENTIAL TO 25
KNOTS AND POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS. WE BUMPED THE SUNDAY WIND
GUSTS UP INTO THE LOW 20S. TEMPS ALOFT AROUND 10C AND POSSIBLY TO
12C. THIS MEANS MID TO UPPER 70S...AND WITH SUFFICIENT MIXING
THERE MAY BE SOME SPOTS WITH LOW 80S. SOUTHWEST WIND MAY BUFFER
THESE VALUES WHERE IT COMES OFF THE OCEAN.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA EARLY MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY. BEST DYNAMICS MOVE FROM NEW YORK UP THROUGH
VERMONT. BUT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE TO
FORECAST SHOWERS WITH COLD FROPA.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...COLDER AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
MEANWHILE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH
COOLING TEMPS ALOFT. TEMPS ALOFT 0-2C SUPPORTING UPPER 50S TO MID
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...
VFR THROUGH 2 AM. AFTER THAT...AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE IN LOCALLY DENSE FOG. BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE CT RIVER
VALLEY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED MEASURABLE RAIN EARLIER TODAY.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
IFR-LIFR FOG BURNS OFF IN THE MORNING. FEW-SCT CIGS AROUND 5 KFT
FOR INTERIOR TERMINALS. SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES TOWARDS
MIDDAY...ERODING TOWARDS EVENING. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME TO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE FOG ISSUES TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. VARIABLE-SOUTHEAST WILL
BECOME LIGHT W/NW TONIGHT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
OF POTENTIAL FOG IMPACTS TOWARDS WEDNESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.  SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY MAY GUST TO 20
KNOTS. SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY MAY GUST 25 KNOTS...POSSIBLY A LITTLE
HIGHER.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WITH EDOUARD...ITS INTENSITY AND PROXIMITY TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SHOULD RESULT IN LONG-PERIOD SWELL OF AROUND 14 SECONDS THAT
LOOKS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 5 FEET.

WITH FORECAST GUIDANCE THAT HAS BEEN OVERZEALOUS WITH WAVE AND
SWELL ACTION WITH COMPARISON TO THE LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS...
WILL HOLD OFF ON THE ISSUANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS. IT IS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE TOWARDS MIDWEEK THAT THE
OUTER WATERS WILL SEE 5 FOOT SEAS. THIS ALONG WITH THE LONG-
PERIOD SWELL...BELIEVE THAT THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL REMAIN IN
THE MODERATE-RANGE FOR THE S-ATLANTIC FACING SHORELINES NEGATING
THE NEED FOR RIP CURRENT STATEMENTS AT THIS TIME.

HAVE GREATEST CONFIDENCE WITH THE EC WAVE MODEL AND WNA-HURRICANE
WAVE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO WAVE AND SWELL ACTION.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS. NORTH
WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS. LINGERING 5 FEET ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS
FROM SWELL...BUT THIS WILL BE SUBSIDING.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL BRING A STRONGER
NORTHEAST WIND WITH POTENTIAL FOR 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY AROUND
NANTUCKET AND ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 5-
7 FEET IN THIS NORTHEAST FLOW...DIMINISHING AS THE WINDS DIMINISH
FRIDAY EVENING.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES. THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTH SATURDAY AND SOUTHWEST SUNDAY. GUSTS TO 20
KNOTS BOTH DAYS WITH POTENTIAL FOR 25 KNOT GUSTS ON SUNDAY. MOST
SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET...BUT THE WATERS EAST OF MASS BAY AND
IPSWICH BAY MAY SEE SEAS RISE AGAIN TO AROUND 5 FEET.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...WTB/RLG/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/SIPPRELL
MARINE...WTB/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 170155
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
955 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SOME FROST IS POSSIBLE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN SOME AREAS. THE HIGH WILL THEN SLIP
OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND IT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. MADE A FEW MINOR UPDATES TO THE
TEMPERATURES AND SKY GRIDS TO BETTER TRACK THE CURRENT TRENDS.

THE CLEARING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR. DEW POINTS
UPSTREAM IN UPSTATE NEW YORK ARE IN THE 40S WITH A COUPLE OF HIGH
30S. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...WHICH
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 40S AWAY FROM THE COAST
AND POSSIBLY A FEW SPOTS IN WESTERN MASS/SOUTHWEST NH THAT REACH
THE UPPER 30S.

MOIST GROUND FROM DAYTIME SHOWERS AND TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR THE
DEW POINT WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY DENSE
FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE CT VALLEY AND ASSOCIATED VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUE. MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS. SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES. COOLER AIRMASS ALOFT
IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH H85 TEMPERATURES AROUND +5C WILL MAKE
IT FEEL LIKE A CRISP COOL DAY AT THE SURFACE WITH HIGHS AROUND THE
UPPER-60S TO LOW-70S...ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES BELOW-NORMAL. SCATTERED
DIURNAL CU AROUND 5 KFT ACROSS THE INTERIOR /ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN/...SANDWICHED BELOW A STOUT DRY-INVERSION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

ANOTHER NIGHT OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH LIGHT / VARIABLE WINDS. SOME
QUESTION AS TO WHETHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN CLEAR. POSSIBILITY OF
SOME HIGH CLOUDS FILTERING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD
FRONT DIVING S OUT OF E-CANADA /DECENT CYCLONIC FLOW AND JET-
DYNAMICS ALOFT/. THIS WOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND POTENTIAL
FOG DEVELOPMENT. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY AREAS OF FOG. WILL
HOLD WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF LOWS DOWN INTO THE 40S EXCEPT
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST USA MOVES OFF BY
FRIDAY WITH THE FLOW CONVERTING TO ZONAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
SHORTWAVE FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA MERGES WITH ENERGY FROM THE
CANADIAN ARCTIC LATE WEEK WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
PACIFIC COAST. BOTH OF THESE ACTIONS WILL DIG AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES...WHICH MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST USA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER HEIGHTS ARE BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY-FRIDAY BUT MODERATE TO 60
METERS ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY. THIS SUGGESTS A COOL FINISH TO THE
WEEK FOLLOWED BY A SMALL WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN
COOLING AGAIN BY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLDER TEMPS ALOFT
MOVE BACK IN.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY... UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
PUSHES A WEAK SECONDARY FRONT THROUGH.  SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SOME
CLOUDS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. BUT COLD ADVECTION ALOFT
IS WEAK AS IS INSTABILITY...TOTALS IN THE MID 40S AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES A LITTLE OVER 5.5C/KM...SO WE/RE NOT BIG ON CONVECTION.
MOST LIKELY A FEW SHOWERS. TEMPS AT 850 MB 5-7C SUPPORT MAX TEMPS
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW RADIATIONAL COOLING. DEW POINTS WILL BE IN
THE 30S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND LOW 40S COAST AND ISLANDS. EXPECT
MIN TEMPS 35-40 AWAY FROM THE COAST AND 40S ALONG THE COAST. IF MVY
AIRPORT DECOUPLES...IT WILL BE NEAR 40 OR LOW 40S.

THESE TEMPS WILL MEAN A POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST. MOSTLY LIKELY
AREAS WOULD BE SOUTHWEST NH AND NORTHWEST MASS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY SHIFTS EAST
SATURDAY...BUT PROVIDES DRY WEATHER BOTH DAYS. LIGHT WINDS
FRIDAY...DEVELOPING SOUTH WIND SATURDAY. MODEL WIND GUSTS FOR
SATURDAY DO NOT REFLECT WINDS ALOFT IN THE MIXED LAYER. SO WE BUMPED
VALUES UP TO NEAR 20 KTS.

FRIDAY TEMPS ALOFT 0-2C SUPPORTS MAX SFC TEMPS UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...SATURDAY TEMPS ALOFT 4-6C SUPPORTS MAX SFC TEMPS MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S. RADIATIONAL COOLING AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT BUT DEW POINTS
WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER...35-45...SO MIN SFC TEMPS UPPER 30S AND
40S. SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING HIGHER DEW POINTS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
MIN TEMPS UPPER 40S AND 50S.

SUNDAY... INCREASING SOUTH WIND SUNDAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. BUT THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH
PLENTY OF SUN. MODEL GUST FORECASTS ARE AGAIN LOWER THAN THE MIXED
LAYER WOULD SUGGEST. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOW A GUST POTENTIAL TO 25
KNOTS AND POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS. WE BUMPED THE SUNDAY WIND
GUSTS UP INTO THE LOW 20S. TEMPS ALOFT AROUND 10C AND POSSIBLY TO
12C. THIS MEANS MID TO UPPER 70S...AND WITH SUFFICIENT MIXING
THERE MAY BE SOME SPOTS WITH LOW 80S. SOUTHWEST WIND MAY BUFFER
THESE VALUES WHERE IT COMES OFF THE OCEAN.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA EARLY MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY. BEST DYNAMICS MOVE FROM NEW YORK UP THROUGH
VERMONT. BUT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE TO
FORECAST SHOWERS WITH COLD FROPA.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...COLDER AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
MEANWHILE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH
COOLING TEMPS ALOFT. TEMPS ALOFT 0-2C SUPPORTING UPPER 50S TO MID
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...
VFR THROUGH 2 AM. AFTER THAT...AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE IN LOCALLY DENSE FOG. BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE CT RIVER
VALLEY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED MEASURABLE RAIN EARLIER TODAY.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
IFR-LIFR FOG BURNS OFF IN THE MORNING. FEW-SCT CIGS AROUND 5 KFT
FOR INTERIOR TERMINALS. SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES TOWARDS
MIDDAY...ERODING TOWARDS EVENING. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME TO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE FOG ISSUES TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. VARIABLE-SOUTHEAST WILL
BECOME LIGHT W/NW TONIGHT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
OF POTENTIAL FOG IMPACTS TOWARDS WEDNESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.  SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY MAY GUST TO 20
KNOTS. SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY MAY GUST 25 KNOTS...POSSIBLY A LITTLE
HIGHER.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WITH EDOUARD...ITS INTENSITY AND PROXIMITY TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SHOULD RESULT IN LONG-PERIOD SWELL OF AROUND 14 SECONDS THAT
LOOKS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 5 FEET.

WITH FORECAST GUIDANCE THAT HAS BEEN OVERZEALOUS WITH WAVE AND
SWELL ACTION WITH COMPARISON TO THE LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS...
WILL HOLD OFF ON THE ISSUANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS. IT IS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE TOWARDS MIDWEEK THAT THE
OUTER WATERS WILL SEE 5 FOOT SEAS. THIS ALONG WITH THE LONG-
PERIOD SWELL...BELIEVE THAT THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL REMAIN IN
THE MODERATE-RANGE FOR THE S-ATLANTIC FACING SHORELINES NEGATING
THE NEED FOR RIP CURRENT STATEMENTS AT THIS TIME.

HAVE GREATEST CONFIDENCE WITH THE EC WAVE MODEL AND WNA-HURRICANE
WAVE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO WAVE AND SWELL ACTION.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS. NORTH
WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS. LINGERING 5 FEET ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS
FROM SWELL...BUT THIS WILL BE SUBSIDING.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL BRING A STRONGER
NORTHEAST WIND WITH POTENTIAL FOR 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY AROUND
NANTUCKET AND ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 5-
7 FEET IN THIS NORTHEAST FLOW...DIMINISHING AS THE WINDS DIMINISH
FRIDAY EVENING.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES. THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTH SATURDAY AND SOUTHWEST SUNDAY. GUSTS TO 20
KNOTS BOTH DAYS WITH POTENTIAL FOR 25 KNOT GUSTS ON SUNDAY. MOST
SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET...BUT THE WATERS EAST OF MASS BAY AND
IPSWICH BAY MAY SEE SEAS RISE AGAIN TO AROUND 5 FEET.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...WTB/RLG/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/SIPPRELL
MARINE...WTB/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 162304
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
704 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SOME FROST IS POSSIBLE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN SOME AREAS. THE HIGH WILL THEN SLIP
OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND IT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS BUILDING EAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IS BEING PUSHED
OFFSHORE EAST OF CAPE COD. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CLEARING
LINE IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN MASS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST.

THE CLEARING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR. DEW POINTS
UPSTREAM IN UPSTATE NEW YORK ARE IN THE 40S WITH A COUPLE OF HIGH
30S. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...WHICH
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 40S AWAY FROM THE COAST
AND POSSIBLY A FEW SPOTS IN WESTERN MASS/SOUTHWEST NH THAT REACH
THE UPPER 30S.

MOIST GROUND FROM DAYTIME SHOWERS AND TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR THE
DEW POINT WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY DENSE
FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE CT VALLEY AND ASSOCIATED VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUE. MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS. SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES. COOLER AIRMASS ALOFT
IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH H85 TEMPERATURES AROUND +5C WILL MAKE
IT FEEL LIKE A CRISP COOL DAY AT THE SURFACE WITH HIGHS AROUND THE
UPPER-60S TO LOW-70S...ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES BELOW-NORMAL. SCATTERED
DIURNAL CU AROUND 5 KFT ACROSS THE INTERIOR /ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN/...SANDWICHED BELOW A STOUT DRY-INVERSION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

ANOTHER NIGHT OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH LIGHT / VARIABLE WINDS. SOME
QUESTION AS TO WHETHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN CLEAR. POSSIBILITY OF
SOME HIGH CLOUDS FILTERING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD
FRONT DIVING S OUT OF E-CANADA /DECENT CYCLONIC FLOW AND JET-
DYNAMICS ALOFT/. THIS WOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND POTENTIAL
FOG DEVELOPMENT. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY AREAS OF FOG. WILL
HOLD WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF LOWS DOWN INTO THE 40S EXCEPT
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST USA MOVES OFF BY
FRIDAY WITH THE FLOW CONVERTING TO ZONAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
SHORTWAVE FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA MERGES WITH ENERGY FROM THE
CANADIAN ARCTIC LATE WEEK WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
PACIFIC COAST. BOTH OF THESE ACTIONS WILL DIG AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES...WHICH MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST USA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER HEIGHTS ARE BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY-FRIDAY BUT MODERATE TO 60
METERS ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY. THIS SUGGESTS A COOL FINISH TO THE
WEEK FOLLOWED BY A SMALL WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN
COOLING AGAIN BY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLDER TEMPS ALOFT
MOVE BACK IN.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY... UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
PUSHES A WEAK SECONDARY FRONT THROUGH.  SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SOME
CLOUDS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. BUT COLD ADVECTION ALOFT
IS WEAK AS IS INSTABILTIY...TOTALS IN THE MID 40S AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES A LITTLE OVER 5.5C/KM...SO WE/RE NOT BIG ON CONVECTION.
MOST LIKELY A FEW SHOWERS. TEMPS AT 850 MB 5-7C SUPPORT MAX TEMPS
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW RADIATIONAL COOLING. DEW POINTS WILL BE IN
THE 30S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND LOW 40S COAST AND ISLANDS. EXPECT
MIN TEMPS 35-40 AWAY FROM THE COAST AND 40S ALONG THE COAST. IF MVY
AIRPORT DECOUPLES...IT WILL BE NEAR 40 OR LOW 40S.

THESE TEMPS WILL MEAN A POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST. MOSTLY LIKELY
AREAS WOULD BE SOUTHWEST NH AND NORTHWEST MASS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY SHIFTS EAST
SATURDAY...BUT PROVIDES DRY WEATHER BOTH DAYS. LIGHT WINDS
FRIDAY...DEVELOPING SOUTH WIND SATURDAY. MODEL WIND GUSTS FOR
SATURDAY DO NOT REFLECT WINDS ALOFT IN THE MIXED LAYER. SO WE BUMPED
VALUES UP TO NEAR 20 KTS.

FRIDAY TEMPS ALOFT 0-2C SUPPORTS MAX SFC TEMPS UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...SATURDAY TEMPS ALOFT 4-6C SUPPORTS MAX SFC TEMPS MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S. RADIATIONAL COOLING AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT BUT DEW POINTS
WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER...35-45...SO MIN SFC TEMPS UPPER 30S AND
40S. SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING HIGHER DEW POINTS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
MIN TEMPS UPPER 40S AND 50S.

SUNDAY... INCREASING SOUTH WIND SUNDAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. BUT THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH
PLENTY OF SUN. MODEL GUST FORECASTS ARE AGAIN LOWER THAN THA MIXED
LAYER WOULD SUGGEST. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOW A GUST POTENTIAL TO 25
KNOTS AND POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS. WE BUMPED THE SUNDAY WIND
GUSTS UP INTO THE LOW 20S. TEMPS ALOFT AROUND 10C AND POSSIBLY TO
12C. THIS MEANS MID TO UPPER 70S...AND WITH SUFFICIENT MIXING THERE
MAY BE SOME SPOTS WITH LOW 80S. SOUTHWEST WIND MAY BUFFER THESE
VALUES WHERE IT COMES OFF THE OCEAN.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA EARLY MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY. BEST DYNAMICS MOVE FROM NEW YORK UP THROUGH
VERMONT. BUT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE TO
FORECAST SHOWERS WITH COLD FROPA.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...COLDER AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
MEANWHILE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH
COOLING TEMPS ALOFT. TEMPS ALOFT 0-2C SUPPORTING UPPER 50S TO MID
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...
VFR THROUGH 2 AM. AFTER THAT...AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE IN LOCALLY DENSE FOG. BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE CT RIVER
VALLEY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED MEASUREABLE RAIN EARLIER TODAY.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
IFR-LIFR FOG BURNS OFF IN THE MORNING. FEW-SCT CIGS AROUND 5 KFT
FOR INTERIOR TERMINALS. SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES TOWARDS
MIDDAY...ERODING TOWARDS EVENING. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME TO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE FOG ISSUES TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. VARIABLE-SOUTHEAST WILL
BECOME LIGHT W/NW TONIGHT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
OF POTENTIAL FOG IMPACTS TOWARDS WEDNESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.  SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY MAY GUST TO 20
KNOTS. SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY MAY GUST 25 KNOTS...POSSIBLY A LITTLE
HIGHER.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WITH EDOUARD...ITS INTENSITY AND PROXIMITY TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SHOULD RESULT IN LONG-PERIOD SWELL OF AROUND 14 SECONDS THAT
LOOKS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 5 FEET.

WITH FORECAST GUIDANCE THAT HAS BEEN OVERZEALOUS WITH WAVE AND
SWELL ACTION WITH COMPARISON TO THE LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS...
WILL HOLD OFF ON THE ISSUANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS. IT IS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE TOWARDS MIDWEEK THAT THE
OUTER WATERS WILL SEE 5 FOOT SEAS. THIS ALONG WITH THE LONG-
PERIOD SWELL...BELIEVE THAT THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL REMAIN IN
THE MODERATE-RANGE FOR THE S-ATLANTIC FACING SHORELINES NEGATING
THE NEED FOR RIP CURRENT STATEMENTS AT THIS TIME.

HAVE GREATEST CONFIDENCE WITH THE EC WAVE MODEL AND WNA-HURRICANE
WAVE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO WAVE AND SWELL ACTION.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS. NORTH
WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS. LINGERING 5 FEET ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS
FROM SWELL...BUT THIS WILL BE SUBSIDING.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL BRING A STRONGER
NORTHEAST WIND WITH POTENTIAL FOR 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY AROUND
NANTUCKET AND ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 5-
7 FEET IN THIS NORTHEAST FLOW...DIMINISHING AS THE WINDS DIMINISH
FRIDAY EVENING.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES. THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTH SATURDAY AND SOUTHWEST SUNDAY. GUSTS TO 20
KNOTS BOTH DAYS WITH POTENTIAL FOR 25 KNOT GUSTS ON SUNDAY. MOST
SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET...BUT THE WATERS EAST OF MASS BAY AND
IPSWICH BAY MAY SEE SEAS RISE AGAIN TO AROUND 5 FEET.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...WTB/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/SIPPRELL
MARINE...WTB/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 162304
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
704 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SOME FROST IS POSSIBLE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN SOME AREAS. THE HIGH WILL THEN SLIP
OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND IT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS BUILDING EAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IS BEING PUSHED
OFFSHORE EAST OF CAPE COD. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CLEARING
LINE IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN MASS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST.

THE CLEARING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR. DEW POINTS
UPSTREAM IN UPSTATE NEW YORK ARE IN THE 40S WITH A COUPLE OF HIGH
30S. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...WHICH
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 40S AWAY FROM THE COAST
AND POSSIBLY A FEW SPOTS IN WESTERN MASS/SOUTHWEST NH THAT REACH
THE UPPER 30S.

MOIST GROUND FROM DAYTIME SHOWERS AND TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR THE
DEW POINT WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY DENSE
FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE CT VALLEY AND ASSOCIATED VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUE. MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS. SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES. COOLER AIRMASS ALOFT
IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH H85 TEMPERATURES AROUND +5C WILL MAKE
IT FEEL LIKE A CRISP COOL DAY AT THE SURFACE WITH HIGHS AROUND THE
UPPER-60S TO LOW-70S...ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES BELOW-NORMAL. SCATTERED
DIURNAL CU AROUND 5 KFT ACROSS THE INTERIOR /ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN/...SANDWICHED BELOW A STOUT DRY-INVERSION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

ANOTHER NIGHT OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH LIGHT / VARIABLE WINDS. SOME
QUESTION AS TO WHETHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN CLEAR. POSSIBILITY OF
SOME HIGH CLOUDS FILTERING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD
FRONT DIVING S OUT OF E-CANADA /DECENT CYCLONIC FLOW AND JET-
DYNAMICS ALOFT/. THIS WOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND POTENTIAL
FOG DEVELOPMENT. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY AREAS OF FOG. WILL
HOLD WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF LOWS DOWN INTO THE 40S EXCEPT
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST USA MOVES OFF BY
FRIDAY WITH THE FLOW CONVERTING TO ZONAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
SHORTWAVE FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA MERGES WITH ENERGY FROM THE
CANADIAN ARCTIC LATE WEEK WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
PACIFIC COAST. BOTH OF THESE ACTIONS WILL DIG AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES...WHICH MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST USA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

UPPER HEIGHTS ARE BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY-FRIDAY BUT MODERATE TO 60
METERS ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY. THIS SUGGESTS A COOL FINISH TO THE
WEEK FOLLOWED BY A SMALL WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN
COOLING AGAIN BY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLDER TEMPS ALOFT
MOVE BACK IN.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY... UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
PUSHES A WEAK SECONDARY FRONT THROUGH.  SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SOME
CLOUDS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. BUT COLD ADVECTION ALOFT
IS WEAK AS IS INSTABILTIY...TOTALS IN THE MID 40S AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES A LITTLE OVER 5.5C/KM...SO WE/RE NOT BIG ON CONVECTION.
MOST LIKELY A FEW SHOWERS. TEMPS AT 850 MB 5-7C SUPPORT MAX TEMPS
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW RADIATIONAL COOLING. DEW POINTS WILL BE IN
THE 30S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND LOW 40S COAST AND ISLANDS. EXPECT
MIN TEMPS 35-40 AWAY FROM THE COAST AND 40S ALONG THE COAST. IF MVY
AIRPORT DECOUPLES...IT WILL BE NEAR 40 OR LOW 40S.

THESE TEMPS WILL MEAN A POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST. MOSTLY LIKELY
AREAS WOULD BE SOUTHWEST NH AND NORTHWEST MASS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY SHIFTS EAST
SATURDAY...BUT PROVIDES DRY WEATHER BOTH DAYS. LIGHT WINDS
FRIDAY...DEVELOPING SOUTH WIND SATURDAY. MODEL WIND GUSTS FOR
SATURDAY DO NOT REFLECT WINDS ALOFT IN THE MIXED LAYER. SO WE BUMPED
VALUES UP TO NEAR 20 KTS.

FRIDAY TEMPS ALOFT 0-2C SUPPORTS MAX SFC TEMPS UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...SATURDAY TEMPS ALOFT 4-6C SUPPORTS MAX SFC TEMPS MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S. RADIATIONAL COOLING AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT BUT DEW POINTS
WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER...35-45...SO MIN SFC TEMPS UPPER 30S AND
40S. SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING HIGHER DEW POINTS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
MIN TEMPS UPPER 40S AND 50S.

SUNDAY... INCREASING SOUTH WIND SUNDAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. BUT THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH
PLENTY OF SUN. MODEL GUST FORECASTS ARE AGAIN LOWER THAN THA MIXED
LAYER WOULD SUGGEST. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOW A GUST POTENTIAL TO 25
KNOTS AND POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS. WE BUMPED THE SUNDAY WIND
GUSTS UP INTO THE LOW 20S. TEMPS ALOFT AROUND 10C AND POSSIBLY TO
12C. THIS MEANS MID TO UPPER 70S...AND WITH SUFFICIENT MIXING THERE
MAY BE SOME SPOTS WITH LOW 80S. SOUTHWEST WIND MAY BUFFER THESE
VALUES WHERE IT COMES OFF THE OCEAN.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA EARLY MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY. BEST DYNAMICS MOVE FROM NEW YORK UP THROUGH
VERMONT. BUT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE TO
FORECAST SHOWERS WITH COLD FROPA.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...COLDER AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
MEANWHILE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WITH
COOLING TEMPS ALOFT. TEMPS ALOFT 0-2C SUPPORTING UPPER 50S TO MID
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...
VFR THROUGH 2 AM. AFTER THAT...AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE IN LOCALLY DENSE FOG. BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE CT RIVER
VALLEY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED MEASUREABLE RAIN EARLIER TODAY.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
IFR-LIFR FOG BURNS OFF IN THE MORNING. FEW-SCT CIGS AROUND 5 KFT
FOR INTERIOR TERMINALS. SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES TOWARDS
MIDDAY...ERODING TOWARDS EVENING. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME TO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE FOG ISSUES TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. VARIABLE-SOUTHEAST WILL
BECOME LIGHT W/NW TONIGHT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
OF POTENTIAL FOG IMPACTS TOWARDS WEDNESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.  SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY MAY GUST TO 20
KNOTS. SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY MAY GUST 25 KNOTS...POSSIBLY A LITTLE
HIGHER.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WITH EDOUARD...ITS INTENSITY AND PROXIMITY TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SHOULD RESULT IN LONG-PERIOD SWELL OF AROUND 14 SECONDS THAT
LOOKS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 5 FEET.

WITH FORECAST GUIDANCE THAT HAS BEEN OVERZEALOUS WITH WAVE AND
SWELL ACTION WITH COMPARISON TO THE LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS...
WILL HOLD OFF ON THE ISSUANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS. IT IS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE TOWARDS MIDWEEK THAT THE
OUTER WATERS WILL SEE 5 FOOT SEAS. THIS ALONG WITH THE LONG-
PERIOD SWELL...BELIEVE THAT THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL REMAIN IN
THE MODERATE-RANGE FOR THE S-ATLANTIC FACING SHORELINES NEGATING
THE NEED FOR RIP CURRENT STATEMENTS AT THIS TIME.

HAVE GREATEST CONFIDENCE WITH THE EC WAVE MODEL AND WNA-HURRICANE
WAVE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO WAVE AND SWELL ACTION.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS. NORTH
WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS. LINGERING 5 FEET ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS
FROM SWELL...BUT THIS WILL BE SUBSIDING.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL BRING A STRONGER
NORTHEAST WIND WITH POTENTIAL FOR 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY AROUND
NANTUCKET AND ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 5-
7 FEET IN THIS NORTHEAST FLOW...DIMINISHING AS THE WINDS DIMINISH
FRIDAY EVENING.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES. THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTH SATURDAY AND SOUTHWEST SUNDAY. GUSTS TO 20
KNOTS BOTH DAYS WITH POTENTIAL FOR 25 KNOT GUSTS ON SUNDAY. MOST
SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET...BUT THE WATERS EAST OF MASS BAY AND
IPSWICH BAY MAY SEE SEAS RISE AGAIN TO AROUND 5 FEET.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...WTB/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/SIPPRELL
MARINE...WTB/SIPPRELL




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