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000
FXUS61 KBOX 220841
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
341 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES MODERATE TODAY ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY...BUT WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. DRY
AND COOLER TUESDAY...THEN A COASTAL STORM MAY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT THE TRACK IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. TURNING COLDER INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST WILL RESULT IN DECENT WARM
ADVECTION TO DEVELOP TODAY. SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
MID/HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES...BUT NO PRECIP EXPECTED AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY.
AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY BUT STILL
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MAXES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S WITH MID 40S OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS. LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LEAD TO
GUSTY SW WINDS DEVELOPING WITH GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH...MAINLY IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ON THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION AND WHILE MOISTURE
IN THE COLUMN DEEPENS IT IS STILL SOMEWHAT DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY N ZONES WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS GREATER BUT ANY PRECIP WILL BE SPOTTY AND VERY LIGHT.
THE MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ISOLATED POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN
CENTRAL/W MA AND SW NH IF ANY PRECIP DEVELOPS AS TEMPS EXPECTED TO
COOL TO NEAR FREEZING TONIGHT WHILE TEMPS ALOFT WARM WELL ABOVE
FREEZING. THIS IS NOT A CERTAINTY AS IT COULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
AND WE WILL HAVE ONLY CHC POPS. TEMPS WILL HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN
THE 30S TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AND NEAR 30 DEGREES
NW...BUT RISING INTO THE 40S S COAST AS GUSTY SW WINDS CONTINUE.
IN FACT...COULD SEE GUSTS TO 40 MPH ON CAPE/ISLANDS.

SUNDAY...
WEAK SFC RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS SNE AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY
DECREASES. EXPECT A DRY AND MILD DAY WITH MORNING CLOUDS GIVING
WAY TO PARTIAL SUNSHINE. USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPS WITH MAXES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...EXCEPT UPPER 40S NW
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - TURNING WARMER AND WET MONDAY
 - A POSSIBLE MIDWEEK STORM...ESPECIALLY FOR SE NEW ENGLAND
 - LOOKING COLDER INTO LATE WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
22.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH ABOUT MID WEEK. THE KEY IS A DEVELOPING
LONGWAVE TROF...WHICH AXIS REMAINS WELL TO THE W ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS YIELDS CONTINUES STACKED SW
FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE BULK OF THE COLDER AIR TO
THE W. THE ONE PRIMARY ISSUE STILL WITHIN THE MOST UNCERTAIN
PORTION...FROM WED ONWARD...IS A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT
OF THE PACIFIC TO THE S OF THE ALLEUTIAN ISLANDS. IT IS THIS
FEATURE WHICH IS STILL GENERATING A WAVE OF LOW PRES ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS LOW PRES
WOULD THEN PASS SOMEWHERE FROM THE S COAST TO WELL SE OF THE 40/70
BENCHMARK. THE ENVELOP OF POTENTIAL TRACKS START LATE WED INTO WED
NIGHT...AND RANGE FROM NEAR THE CAPE COD CANAL TO WELL OFFSHORE
WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT. THE ENSEMBLES ALL FALL IN THIS ENVELOP
WHILE THE GFS IS NEAR THE E EDGE AND THE ECMWF NEAR THE W EDGE.
THEREFORE...FEEL THAT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WILL CONVEY BOTH THE
UNCERTAINTY AND TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS. THIS
INCLUDES THERMAL PROFILES AS THE ECMWF IS SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER
THAN THE GFS.

DETAILS...

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
WARM OCCLUSION WILL BE MOVING THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING...THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1.0-1.25 INCHES...MODERATE SLY LLJ
AROUND 65 KT AND K-VALUES ABOVE 30. ESSENTIALLY ALL INGREDIENTS FOR
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER RAIN AND CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS. TS WOULD BE ISOLATED...BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR THIS HEAVY RAIN THREAT UNTIL IT MOVES THROUGH
BY ABOUT MID MORNING-MID DAY MON. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR FOR
STRONG WINDS THANKS TO PRECIP DRAG OR CONVECTIVE FORCING TO THE
SFC AS THE 65 KT LLJ CORE IS ONLY AT ABOUT H92. NOTE MODEST
INVERSION INITIALLY...BUT SOME MIXING OF THIS MOMENTUM IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE MON NIGHT HOURS...BUT
WILL BE LIGHTER AND LESS WIDESPREAD AS THE UPPER LVL IMPULSE MOVES
THROUGH AND LOW-MID LVL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE.

TUE AND TUE NIGHT...
BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES OVER FROM THE SW AND CRESTS ACROSS
THE REGION. MID LVL TEMPS STILL RELATIVELY HIGH...SO EXPECT TEMPS
MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL.

WED AND THU...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR A COASTAL LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING
NE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK...COULD SEE JUST
SOME RAIN FOR E MA AND RI WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A BIT OF LIGHT
MIXED PRECIP TO THE INTERIOR CT/MA/SW NH...THIS IS THE E EDGE OF
THE ENVELOP REPRESENTED BY THE GFS. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WARMER AND
PASSES NEAR THE CANAL..BUT ALSO IS MORE DYNAMIC WITH MORE
PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME...GIVEN THE LACK OF A BLOCKING ARCTIC
HIGH AND SLIGHTLY POSITIVE AO/NAO AS THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER
NOTED...FEEL THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WARM AIR IN PLACE FOR
RAIN/MIXED PRECIP RATHER THAN SNOW OUTRIGHT EVEN IF THE GFS OR E
TRACKING ENSEMBLES VERIFY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT WARM AIR COULD COME IN FASTER ALOFT AND THERE
WILL BE SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL FOR THE HOLIDAY.

LATE NEXT WEEK-EARLY WEEKEND...
THU-FRI COULD SEE BRIEF SHOT OF LIGHT PRECIP AS THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE EJECTS ENE...BUT BY THIS POINT DRIER AIR IS ALREADY
MOVING IN BEHIND THE COASTAL LOW. IN ANY CASE EXPECT COOLER AIR
TO BEGIN TO FILTER IN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR. MID LEVEL CIGS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.
INCREASING SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN.

TONIGHT...MAINLY LOW-END VFR CIGS DEVELOPING BUT LOW PROB FOR MVFR
WITH A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED. ISOLATED POCKETS OF -FZRA POSSIBLE
IN W MA AND SW NH. ANY ICING WILL BE VERY LIGHT. SW WIND GUSTS TO
25-30 KT NEAR THE COAST...POSSIBLY UP TO 35 KT CAPE/ISLANDS.

SUNDAY...VFR CIGS. SW GUSTS TO 25 KT CAPE/ISLANDS IN THE
MORNING...THEN DIMINISHING WIND.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. EXPECT VFR CIGS TONIGHT BUT A
FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. SW GUSTS 25-30 KT DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY -FZRA. LOW PROB FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS DETERIORATE MVFR-LIFR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WITH +RA AND STRONG S-WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS POSSIBLE...
OTHERWISE LLWS IMPACTS WITH 50 KT S-WINDS 2 KFT AGL. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE BY MIDDAY...BUT COULD SEE CONTINUED SW-WINDS AROUND 25 KTS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WSW-FLOW WITH MAINLY VFR.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ESPECIALLY
TO THE SE-TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. WITH STILL COOL AIR OVER WARMER SST...MIXING OVER THE
WATER WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR GUSTS TO 35-40 KT DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH STRONGEST WINDS E AND S OF CAPE
COD. WE CONVERTED THE GALE WATCH TO WARNINGS...WITH SCA FOR BOS
HARBOR...NARRAGANSETT BAY AND MASS BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 10 FEET
TONIGHT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS.

SUNDAY...GUSTY SW WINDS 25-30 KT IN THE MORNING WILL BE
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND DROPPING BELOW 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS DETERIORATE INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH RAIN OVER THE WATERS
AND EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS. VISIBILITY IMPACTS POSSIBLE. WINDS
INCREASING OUT OF THE S. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUST TO AROUND 30
KT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 10+ FEET ON THE SRN OCEAN WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AT LEAST NEEDED.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS TURNING SW REMAINING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KTS.
WAVES MAINTAINED WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE
WATERS YET DETAILS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ231-232.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ233>235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ230-236-251.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 220841
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
341 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES MODERATE TODAY ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY...BUT WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. DRY
AND COOLER TUESDAY...THEN A COASTAL STORM MAY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT THE TRACK IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. TURNING COLDER INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST WILL RESULT IN DECENT WARM
ADVECTION TO DEVELOP TODAY. SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
MID/HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES...BUT NO PRECIP EXPECTED AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY.
AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY BUT STILL
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MAXES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S WITH MID 40S OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS. LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LEAD TO
GUSTY SW WINDS DEVELOPING WITH GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH...MAINLY IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ON THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION AND WHILE MOISTURE
IN THE COLUMN DEEPENS IT IS STILL SOMEWHAT DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY N ZONES WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS GREATER BUT ANY PRECIP WILL BE SPOTTY AND VERY LIGHT.
THE MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ISOLATED POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN
CENTRAL/W MA AND SW NH IF ANY PRECIP DEVELOPS AS TEMPS EXPECTED TO
COOL TO NEAR FREEZING TONIGHT WHILE TEMPS ALOFT WARM WELL ABOVE
FREEZING. THIS IS NOT A CERTAINTY AS IT COULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
AND WE WILL HAVE ONLY CHC POPS. TEMPS WILL HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN
THE 30S TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AND NEAR 30 DEGREES
NW...BUT RISING INTO THE 40S S COAST AS GUSTY SW WINDS CONTINUE.
IN FACT...COULD SEE GUSTS TO 40 MPH ON CAPE/ISLANDS.

SUNDAY...
WEAK SFC RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS SNE AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY
DECREASES. EXPECT A DRY AND MILD DAY WITH MORNING CLOUDS GIVING
WAY TO PARTIAL SUNSHINE. USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPS WITH MAXES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...EXCEPT UPPER 40S NW
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - TURNING WARMER AND WET MONDAY
 - A POSSIBLE MIDWEEK STORM...ESPECIALLY FOR SE NEW ENGLAND
 - LOOKING COLDER INTO LATE WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
22.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH ABOUT MID WEEK. THE KEY IS A DEVELOPING
LONGWAVE TROF...WHICH AXIS REMAINS WELL TO THE W ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS YIELDS CONTINUES STACKED SW
FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING THE BULK OF THE COLDER AIR TO
THE W. THE ONE PRIMARY ISSUE STILL WITHIN THE MOST UNCERTAIN
PORTION...FROM WED ONWARD...IS A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT
OF THE PACIFIC TO THE S OF THE ALLEUTIAN ISLANDS. IT IS THIS
FEATURE WHICH IS STILL GENERATING A WAVE OF LOW PRES ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS LOW PRES
WOULD THEN PASS SOMEWHERE FROM THE S COAST TO WELL SE OF THE 40/70
BENCHMARK. THE ENVELOP OF POTENTIAL TRACKS START LATE WED INTO WED
NIGHT...AND RANGE FROM NEAR THE CAPE COD CANAL TO WELL OFFSHORE
WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT. THE ENSEMBLES ALL FALL IN THIS ENVELOP
WHILE THE GFS IS NEAR THE E EDGE AND THE ECMWF NEAR THE W EDGE.
THEREFORE...FEEL THAT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WILL CONVEY BOTH THE
UNCERTAINTY AND TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS. THIS
INCLUDES THERMAL PROFILES AS THE ECMWF IS SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER
THAN THE GFS.

DETAILS...

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
WARM OCCLUSION WILL BE MOVING THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING...THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1.0-1.25 INCHES...MODERATE SLY LLJ
AROUND 65 KT AND K-VALUES ABOVE 30. ESSENTIALLY ALL INGREDIENTS FOR
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER RAIN AND CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS. TS WOULD BE ISOLATED...BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR THIS HEAVY RAIN THREAT UNTIL IT MOVES THROUGH
BY ABOUT MID MORNING-MID DAY MON. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR FOR
STRONG WINDS THANKS TO PRECIP DRAG OR CONVECTIVE FORCING TO THE
SFC AS THE 65 KT LLJ CORE IS ONLY AT ABOUT H92. NOTE MODEST
INVERSION INITIALLY...BUT SOME MIXING OF THIS MOMENTUM IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE MON NIGHT HOURS...BUT
WILL BE LIGHTER AND LESS WIDESPREAD AS THE UPPER LVL IMPULSE MOVES
THROUGH AND LOW-MID LVL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE.

TUE AND TUE NIGHT...
BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES OVER FROM THE SW AND CRESTS ACROSS
THE REGION. MID LVL TEMPS STILL RELATIVELY HIGH...SO EXPECT TEMPS
MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL.

WED AND THU...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR A COASTAL LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING
NE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK...COULD SEE JUST
SOME RAIN FOR E MA AND RI WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A BIT OF LIGHT
MIXED PRECIP TO THE INTERIOR CT/MA/SW NH...THIS IS THE E EDGE OF
THE ENVELOP REPRESENTED BY THE GFS. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WARMER AND
PASSES NEAR THE CANAL..BUT ALSO IS MORE DYNAMIC WITH MORE
PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME...GIVEN THE LACK OF A BLOCKING ARCTIC
HIGH AND SLIGHTLY POSITIVE AO/NAO AS THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER
NOTED...FEEL THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WARM AIR IN PLACE FOR
RAIN/MIXED PRECIP RATHER THAN SNOW OUTRIGHT EVEN IF THE GFS OR E
TRACKING ENSEMBLES VERIFY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT WARM AIR COULD COME IN FASTER ALOFT AND THERE
WILL BE SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL FOR THE HOLIDAY.

LATE NEXT WEEK-EARLY WEEKEND...
THU-FRI COULD SEE BRIEF SHOT OF LIGHT PRECIP AS THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE EJECTS ENE...BUT BY THIS POINT DRIER AIR IS ALREADY
MOVING IN BEHIND THE COASTAL LOW. IN ANY CASE EXPECT COOLER AIR
TO BEGIN TO FILTER IN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR. MID LEVEL CIGS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.
INCREASING SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN.

TONIGHT...MAINLY LOW-END VFR CIGS DEVELOPING BUT LOW PROB FOR MVFR
WITH A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED. ISOLATED POCKETS OF -FZRA POSSIBLE
IN W MA AND SW NH. ANY ICING WILL BE VERY LIGHT. SW WIND GUSTS TO
25-30 KT NEAR THE COAST...POSSIBLY UP TO 35 KT CAPE/ISLANDS.

SUNDAY...VFR CIGS. SW GUSTS TO 25 KT CAPE/ISLANDS IN THE
MORNING...THEN DIMINISHING WIND.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. EXPECT VFR CIGS TONIGHT BUT A
FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. SW GUSTS 25-30 KT DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY -FZRA. LOW PROB FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS DETERIORATE MVFR-LIFR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WITH +RA AND STRONG S-WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS POSSIBLE...
OTHERWISE LLWS IMPACTS WITH 50 KT S-WINDS 2 KFT AGL. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE BY MIDDAY...BUT COULD SEE CONTINUED SW-WINDS AROUND 25 KTS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WSW-FLOW WITH MAINLY VFR.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ESPECIALLY
TO THE SE-TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. WITH STILL COOL AIR OVER WARMER SST...MIXING OVER THE
WATER WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR GUSTS TO 35-40 KT DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH STRONGEST WINDS E AND S OF CAPE
COD. WE CONVERTED THE GALE WATCH TO WARNINGS...WITH SCA FOR BOS
HARBOR...NARRAGANSETT BAY AND MASS BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 10 FEET
TONIGHT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS.

SUNDAY...GUSTY SW WINDS 25-30 KT IN THE MORNING WILL BE
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND DROPPING BELOW 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS DETERIORATE INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH RAIN OVER THE WATERS
AND EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS. VISIBILITY IMPACTS POSSIBLE. WINDS
INCREASING OUT OF THE S. SOUTHERLY WINDS GUST TO AROUND 30
KT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 10+ FEET ON THE SRN OCEAN WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AT LEAST NEEDED.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS TURNING SW REMAINING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KTS.
WAVES MAINTAINED WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE
WATERS YET DETAILS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ231-232.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ233>235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ230-236-251.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 220816
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
316 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES MODERATE TODAY ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY...BUT WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. DRY
AND COOLER TUESDAY...THEN A COASTAL STORM MAY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT THE TRACK IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. TURNING COLDER INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST WILL RESULT IN DECENT WARM
ADVECTION TO DEVELOP TODAY. SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
MID/HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES...BUT NO PRECIP EXPECTED AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY.
AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY BUT STILL
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MAXES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S WITH MID 40S OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS. LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LEAD TO
GUSTY SW WINDS DEVELOPING WITH GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH...MAINLY IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ON THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION AND WHILE MOISTURE
IN THE COLUMN DEEPENS IT IS STILL SOMEWHAT DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY N ZONES WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS GREATER BUT ANY PRECIP WILL BE SPOTTY AND VERY LIGHT.
THE MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ISOLATED POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN
CENTRAL/W MA AND SW NH IF ANY PRECIP DEVELOPS AS TEMPS EXPECTED TO
COOL TO NEAR FREEZING TONIGHT WHILE TEMPS ALOFT WARM WELL ABOVE
FREEZING. THIS IS NOT A CERTAINTY AS IT COULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
AND WE WILL HAVE ONLY CHC POPS. TEMPS WILL HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN
THE 30S TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AND NEAR 30 DEGREES
NW...BUT RISING INTO THE 40S S COAST AS GUSTY SW WINDS CONTINUE.
IN FACT...COULD SEE GUSTS TO 40 MPH ON CAPE/ISLANDS.

SUNDAY...
WEAK SFC RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS SNE AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY
DECREASES. EXPECT A DRY AND MILD DAY WITH MORNING CLOUDS GIVING
WAY TO PARTIAL SUNSHINE. USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPS WITH MAXES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...EXCEPT UPPER 40S NW
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - TURNING WARMER AND WET MONDAY
 - A POSSIBLE MIDWEEK STORM...ESPECIALLY FOR SE NEW ENGLAND
 - LOOKING COLDER INTO THANKSGIVING

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

TRENDING +AO/NAO WITH NEAR-NEUTRAL PNA SUGGESTS A MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN AND MILD. NO SURPRISE TO SEE A LACK OF DEEP CLOSED-LOW H5
DISTURBANCES...THOUGH AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH ABUNDANCE OF PACIFIC-
ORIGIN WAVES MAINTAINING TROUGHING BETWEEN SECTORS OF ABOVE-AVERAGE
OCEAN TEMPERATURES OVER THE NE-PACIFIC AND NW-ATLANTIC.

SOME OF THOSE WAVES ARE WELL OUT IN THE PACIFIC AND HAVE NOT EVEN
BEEN SAMPLED. THE WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WINTER-STORM POTENTIAL
FOR THE MIDWEEK / THANKSGIVING PERIOD IS JUST S OF THE FURTHEST E
ALEUTAIN ISLANDS OF ALASKA. NOTING THIS...HAVE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
THROUGH EARLY-NEXT WEEK WITH THE FORECAST...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE FOR A
POTENTIAL MIDWEEK STORM. WILL HIT UP THE DETAILS BELOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT...

WARM-FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING BROADSCALE LIFT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW
ACROSS THE C-CONUS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION BECOMES THE FOCUS
FOR RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. NON-DIURNAL WARMING TREND OVERNIGHT. ALL-
RAIN EVENT. MAIN CONCERNS ARE WITH BOTH WINDS AND RAIN.

WITH WINDS: STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET CENTERED AROUND MONDAY MORNING WITH
WINDS 1-2 KFT AGL MODEL-CONSENSUS AVERAGING AROUND 50 MPH /45 KTS/.
SUGGESTED BOUNDARY-LAYER DECOUPLING BENEATH MUCH WARMER AIR BETWEEN
H925-85. BUT IF 2M TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER AS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
COULD BE WARMER SUNDAY NIGHT AIDING IN LOW-LEVEL MIXING. ALSO NEED
TO CONSIDER ANY HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD ALSO AID WITH DRAGGING FASTER
MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE. OVERALL: MAIN CONCERN ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND
AND HIGH TERRAIN ABOVE 1 KFT. WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY. CIPS
ANALOG GUIDANCE HAS JUST ABOVE 50-PERCENT FOR WINDS > 35 MPH.

WITH RAIN: BROADSCALE ASCENT OF THE WARM-CONVEYER-BELT WITH PWATS UP
TO 1.5-INCHES AND ANOMALOUS HIGH-THETAE AIR. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET TO THE PARENT WARM-FRONT. EXPECT A BROAD
NW-SE BAND OF RAIN WITH PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED LINE OF HEAVIER RAIN. IT
MOVES THROUGH NOTABLY QUICK. MODEL-CONSENSUS AVERAGE RAIN AMOUNTS
ARE AROUND 0.50 - 0.75 INCHES. AM NOT EXPECTING ANY FLOOD ISSUES.

INTO MONDAY...

RAINS FOR THE MORNING...IMPROVING AFTERNOON. IF WE CLEAR AS H925
TEMPERATURES WARM TO +14C THEN WE COULD POSSIBLY SEE HIGHS INTO THE
MID- TO UPPER-60S /+18C/ POSSIBLY TO NEAR 70. MODEL-CONSENSUS H925
WINDS AVERAGE AROUND 45 MPH /40 KTS/ AND WITH WARMER CONDITIONS
COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXING OUT TO H9 AND MOMENTUM MIX-DOWN.
WILL HINT AT THIS IN THE FORECAST...BUT MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

WILL GO WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS...BUT THE MAIN PUMP OF MOISTURE
SHOULD BE WELL OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE THE MAIN COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO
THE DEEPENING LOW LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION SWEEPS
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. EXPECTING DRY AND COOLER WEATHER FOR TUESDAY...
PERHAPS CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...

JUST TOO EARLY TO SAY. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS VARY
CONSIDERABLY WITH SURFACE LOW CENTERS AROUND THE ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH
KEY UPON A LOW SE OF THE 40N / 70W BENCHMARK AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HAVE CONCERNS FOR SE NEW ENGLAND WHICH COULD SEE THE GREATEST IMPACT
WHILE NOTING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER S-CANADA /WITH THE CENTER
OVER THE C-CONUS/. THE GFS-UPGRADED /T1534/ IS A FAR OUTLIER AND IS
NOT CONSIDERED WITH THIS FORECAST.

EVALUATING SYNOPTICS...THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A COASTAL STORM
BUT MORE OF A WAVE LOW ALONG THE OFFSHORE STALLED FRONT. AS BEEN THE
CASE THIS YEAR...COLD AIR HAS BEEN PLUNGING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
BUT ITS TRUE BITE REMAINS MAINLY N/W OF OUR REGION. DO HAVE SOME
CONFIDENCE THAT THE WAVE LOW WILL HUG CLOSER TO THE COAST. THEN IT
COMES TO BREAKING DOWN TIMING / ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS / THERMAL FIELDS
WHICH RIGHT NOW ARE AGAIN TOO EARLY TO DIAGNOSE. THERE HAS BEEN A
CONSISTENT SIGNAL. STORM BEARS WATCHING.

EXPECTING A RETURN OF ARCTIC AIR BEHIND WHATEVER MIDWEEK SYSTEM THAT
MAY EMERGE. DAY 6-8 CIPS ANALOGS HAVE HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE SE-CONUS INTO THE OHIO-RIVER VALLEY
CENTERED AROUND THE LATE-THANKSGIVING WEEK PERIOD. EC ENSEMBLES AT
H85 HAVE THE FREEZING MARK PLUNGING TO NEARLY THE GULF COAST...WITH
-10C AIR INTO NEW ENGLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR. MID LEVEL CIGS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.
INCREASING SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN.

TONIGHT...MAINLY LOW-END VFR CIGS DEVELOPING BUT LOW PROB FOR MVFR
WITH A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED. ISOLATED POCKETS OF -FZRA POSSIBLE
IN W MA AND SW NH. ANY ICING WILL BE VERY LIGHT. SW WIND GUSTS TO
25-30 KT NEAR THE COAST...POSSIBLY UP TO 35 KT CAPE/ISLANDS.

SUNDAY...VFR CIGS. SW GUSTS TO 25 KT CAPE/ISLANDS IN THE
MORNING...THEN DIMINISHING WIND.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. EXPECT VFR CIGS TONIGHT BUT A
FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. SW GUSTS 25-30 KT DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY -FZRA. LOW PROB FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS DETERIORATE MVFR-LIFR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WITH +RA AND STRONG S-WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS POSSIBLE...
OTHERWISE LLWS IMPACTS WITH 50 KT S-WINDS 2 KFT AGL. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE BY MIDDAY...BUT COULD SEE CONTINUED SW-WINDS AROUND 25 KTS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

W-FLOW WITH MAINLY VFR.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ESPECIALLY
TO THE SE-TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. WITH STILL COOL AIR OVER WARMER SST...MIXING OVER THE
WATER WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR GUSTS TO 35-40 KT DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH STRONGEST WINDS E AND S OF CAPE
COD. WE CONVERTED THE GALE WATCH TO WARNINGS...WITH SCA FOR BOS
HARBOR...NARRAGANSETT BAY AND MASS BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 10 FEET
TONIGHT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS.

SUNDAY...GUSTY SW WINDS 25-30 KT IN THE MORNING WILL BE
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND DROPPING BELOW 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS DETERIORATE INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH RAIN OVER THE WATERS
AND EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS. VISIBILITY IMPACTS POSSIBLE. WINDS
INCREASING OUT OF THE S. GUSTS EXCEEDING GALE FORCE APPEAR LIKELY.
WAVES SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASING TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS TURNING SW REMAINING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KTS.
WAVES MAINTAINED WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE
WATERS YET DETAILS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ231-232.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ233>235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ230-236-251.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 220816
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
316 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES MODERATE TODAY ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY...BUT WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. DRY
AND COOLER TUESDAY...THEN A COASTAL STORM MAY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT THE TRACK IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. TURNING COLDER INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST WILL RESULT IN DECENT WARM
ADVECTION TO DEVELOP TODAY. SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
MID/HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES...BUT NO PRECIP EXPECTED AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY.
AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY BUT STILL
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MAXES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S WITH MID 40S OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS. LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LEAD TO
GUSTY SW WINDS DEVELOPING WITH GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH...MAINLY IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ON THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION AND WHILE MOISTURE
IN THE COLUMN DEEPENS IT IS STILL SOMEWHAT DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY N ZONES WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS GREATER BUT ANY PRECIP WILL BE SPOTTY AND VERY LIGHT.
THE MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ISOLATED POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN
CENTRAL/W MA AND SW NH IF ANY PRECIP DEVELOPS AS TEMPS EXPECTED TO
COOL TO NEAR FREEZING TONIGHT WHILE TEMPS ALOFT WARM WELL ABOVE
FREEZING. THIS IS NOT A CERTAINTY AS IT COULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
AND WE WILL HAVE ONLY CHC POPS. TEMPS WILL HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN
THE 30S TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AND NEAR 30 DEGREES
NW...BUT RISING INTO THE 40S S COAST AS GUSTY SW WINDS CONTINUE.
IN FACT...COULD SEE GUSTS TO 40 MPH ON CAPE/ISLANDS.

SUNDAY...
WEAK SFC RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS SNE AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY
DECREASES. EXPECT A DRY AND MILD DAY WITH MORNING CLOUDS GIVING
WAY TO PARTIAL SUNSHINE. USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPS WITH MAXES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...EXCEPT UPPER 40S NW
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - TURNING WARMER AND WET MONDAY
 - A POSSIBLE MIDWEEK STORM...ESPECIALLY FOR SE NEW ENGLAND
 - LOOKING COLDER INTO THANKSGIVING

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

TRENDING +AO/NAO WITH NEAR-NEUTRAL PNA SUGGESTS A MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN AND MILD. NO SURPRISE TO SEE A LACK OF DEEP CLOSED-LOW H5
DISTURBANCES...THOUGH AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH ABUNDANCE OF PACIFIC-
ORIGIN WAVES MAINTAINING TROUGHING BETWEEN SECTORS OF ABOVE-AVERAGE
OCEAN TEMPERATURES OVER THE NE-PACIFIC AND NW-ATLANTIC.

SOME OF THOSE WAVES ARE WELL OUT IN THE PACIFIC AND HAVE NOT EVEN
BEEN SAMPLED. THE WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WINTER-STORM POTENTIAL
FOR THE MIDWEEK / THANKSGIVING PERIOD IS JUST S OF THE FURTHEST E
ALEUTAIN ISLANDS OF ALASKA. NOTING THIS...HAVE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
THROUGH EARLY-NEXT WEEK WITH THE FORECAST...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE FOR A
POTENTIAL MIDWEEK STORM. WILL HIT UP THE DETAILS BELOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT...

WARM-FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING BROADSCALE LIFT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW
ACROSS THE C-CONUS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION BECOMES THE FOCUS
FOR RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. NON-DIURNAL WARMING TREND OVERNIGHT. ALL-
RAIN EVENT. MAIN CONCERNS ARE WITH BOTH WINDS AND RAIN.

WITH WINDS: STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET CENTERED AROUND MONDAY MORNING WITH
WINDS 1-2 KFT AGL MODEL-CONSENSUS AVERAGING AROUND 50 MPH /45 KTS/.
SUGGESTED BOUNDARY-LAYER DECOUPLING BENEATH MUCH WARMER AIR BETWEEN
H925-85. BUT IF 2M TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER AS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
COULD BE WARMER SUNDAY NIGHT AIDING IN LOW-LEVEL MIXING. ALSO NEED
TO CONSIDER ANY HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD ALSO AID WITH DRAGGING FASTER
MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE. OVERALL: MAIN CONCERN ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND
AND HIGH TERRAIN ABOVE 1 KFT. WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY. CIPS
ANALOG GUIDANCE HAS JUST ABOVE 50-PERCENT FOR WINDS > 35 MPH.

WITH RAIN: BROADSCALE ASCENT OF THE WARM-CONVEYER-BELT WITH PWATS UP
TO 1.5-INCHES AND ANOMALOUS HIGH-THETAE AIR. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET TO THE PARENT WARM-FRONT. EXPECT A BROAD
NW-SE BAND OF RAIN WITH PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED LINE OF HEAVIER RAIN. IT
MOVES THROUGH NOTABLY QUICK. MODEL-CONSENSUS AVERAGE RAIN AMOUNTS
ARE AROUND 0.50 - 0.75 INCHES. AM NOT EXPECTING ANY FLOOD ISSUES.

INTO MONDAY...

RAINS FOR THE MORNING...IMPROVING AFTERNOON. IF WE CLEAR AS H925
TEMPERATURES WARM TO +14C THEN WE COULD POSSIBLY SEE HIGHS INTO THE
MID- TO UPPER-60S /+18C/ POSSIBLY TO NEAR 70. MODEL-CONSENSUS H925
WINDS AVERAGE AROUND 45 MPH /40 KTS/ AND WITH WARMER CONDITIONS
COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXING OUT TO H9 AND MOMENTUM MIX-DOWN.
WILL HINT AT THIS IN THE FORECAST...BUT MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

WILL GO WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS...BUT THE MAIN PUMP OF MOISTURE
SHOULD BE WELL OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE THE MAIN COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO
THE DEEPENING LOW LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION SWEEPS
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. EXPECTING DRY AND COOLER WEATHER FOR TUESDAY...
PERHAPS CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...

JUST TOO EARLY TO SAY. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS VARY
CONSIDERABLY WITH SURFACE LOW CENTERS AROUND THE ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH
KEY UPON A LOW SE OF THE 40N / 70W BENCHMARK AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HAVE CONCERNS FOR SE NEW ENGLAND WHICH COULD SEE THE GREATEST IMPACT
WHILE NOTING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER S-CANADA /WITH THE CENTER
OVER THE C-CONUS/. THE GFS-UPGRADED /T1534/ IS A FAR OUTLIER AND IS
NOT CONSIDERED WITH THIS FORECAST.

EVALUATING SYNOPTICS...THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A COASTAL STORM
BUT MORE OF A WAVE LOW ALONG THE OFFSHORE STALLED FRONT. AS BEEN THE
CASE THIS YEAR...COLD AIR HAS BEEN PLUNGING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
BUT ITS TRUE BITE REMAINS MAINLY N/W OF OUR REGION. DO HAVE SOME
CONFIDENCE THAT THE WAVE LOW WILL HUG CLOSER TO THE COAST. THEN IT
COMES TO BREAKING DOWN TIMING / ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS / THERMAL FIELDS
WHICH RIGHT NOW ARE AGAIN TOO EARLY TO DIAGNOSE. THERE HAS BEEN A
CONSISTENT SIGNAL. STORM BEARS WATCHING.

EXPECTING A RETURN OF ARCTIC AIR BEHIND WHATEVER MIDWEEK SYSTEM THAT
MAY EMERGE. DAY 6-8 CIPS ANALOGS HAVE HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE SE-CONUS INTO THE OHIO-RIVER VALLEY
CENTERED AROUND THE LATE-THANKSGIVING WEEK PERIOD. EC ENSEMBLES AT
H85 HAVE THE FREEZING MARK PLUNGING TO NEARLY THE GULF COAST...WITH
-10C AIR INTO NEW ENGLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR. MID LEVEL CIGS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.
INCREASING SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN.

TONIGHT...MAINLY LOW-END VFR CIGS DEVELOPING BUT LOW PROB FOR MVFR
WITH A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED. ISOLATED POCKETS OF -FZRA POSSIBLE
IN W MA AND SW NH. ANY ICING WILL BE VERY LIGHT. SW WIND GUSTS TO
25-30 KT NEAR THE COAST...POSSIBLY UP TO 35 KT CAPE/ISLANDS.

SUNDAY...VFR CIGS. SW GUSTS TO 25 KT CAPE/ISLANDS IN THE
MORNING...THEN DIMINISHING WIND.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. EXPECT VFR CIGS TONIGHT BUT A
FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. SW GUSTS 25-30 KT DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY -FZRA. LOW PROB FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS DETERIORATE MVFR-LIFR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WITH +RA AND STRONG S-WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS POSSIBLE...
OTHERWISE LLWS IMPACTS WITH 50 KT S-WINDS 2 KFT AGL. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE BY MIDDAY...BUT COULD SEE CONTINUED SW-WINDS AROUND 25 KTS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

W-FLOW WITH MAINLY VFR.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ESPECIALLY
TO THE SE-TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. WITH STILL COOL AIR OVER WARMER SST...MIXING OVER THE
WATER WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR GUSTS TO 35-40 KT DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH STRONGEST WINDS E AND S OF CAPE
COD. WE CONVERTED THE GALE WATCH TO WARNINGS...WITH SCA FOR BOS
HARBOR...NARRAGANSETT BAY AND MASS BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 10 FEET
TONIGHT OVER SOUTHERN WATERS.

SUNDAY...GUSTY SW WINDS 25-30 KT IN THE MORNING WILL BE
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND DROPPING BELOW 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS DETERIORATE INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH RAIN OVER THE WATERS
AND EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS. VISIBILITY IMPACTS POSSIBLE. WINDS
INCREASING OUT OF THE S. GUSTS EXCEEDING GALE FORCE APPEAR LIKELY.
WAVES SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASING TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS TURNING SW REMAINING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KTS.
WAVES MAINTAINED WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE
WATERS YET DETAILS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ231-232.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ233>235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ230-236-251.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 220603
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
103 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A DRY BUT VERY COLD NIGHT...TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME
SATURDAY ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
SIGNIFICANT WARM UP SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY...BUT WITH A
PERIOD OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. QUIET FOR TUESDAY BUT
CONDITIONS MAY CHANGE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE THREAT OF A STORM
SYSTEM. TURNING COLDER INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1 AM UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS SNE. UPDATED T/TD GRIDS FOR CURRENT
TRENDS...OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRES IN CONTROL BRINGING CLEAR AND DIMINISHING WIND. SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPILLING INTO THE BERKSHIRES MAY BRING A FEW
CLOUDS TO W MA THROUGH 06Z THEN LOW LEVEL DRYING TAKES PLACE.
EXPECT A NICE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS
WINDS CONTINUE TO DECOUPLE RESULTING IN LOWS INTO THE TEENS...WITH
SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE ACROSS NW MA AND SW NH...WELL BELOW-NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MILDEST READINGS IN THE 20S WILL BE IN
BOS...OUTER CAPE/ISLANDS AND AREAS ADJACENT TO NARRAGANSETT BAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC ALLOWING FOR STRONG MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TO DEVELOP. THE RESPONSE WILL BE AN INCREASE
IN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AS THE DAY WEARS ON...BUT IT WILL
REMAIN DRY GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

DESPITE THE WARM ADVECTION ALOFT...IT WILL TAKE TIME FOR THAT TO BE
COMPLETELY REALIZED AT THE SURFACE. WHILE IT WILL BE MILDER THAN
TODAY...HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S WITH SOME MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S ON THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS. HOWEVER...EXPECTING SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
MPH TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS A BIT STRONGER ALONG
THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL STILL MAKE IT FEEL
RATHER CHILLY OUTSIDE FOR NOVEMBER STANDARDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT.
THERE STILL SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCING TO BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WHILE IT CERTAINLY WILL BE TOO
WARM ALOFT FOR ANY SNOW...THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS WILL IT BE COLD
ENOUGH AT THE SURFACE FOR SOME POCKETS OF SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR. ITS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AND WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED...BUT ITS NOT AN IDEAL SETUP. THERE IS A LOT OF WIND
OFF THE DECK AND PROBABLY ENOUGH TO PREVENT MOST AREAS FROM
DECOUPLING. GIVEN WERE +4C AT 850 MB SOME OF THIS MILDER AIR WILL
BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL LIGHT ICING
THREAT...BUT STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED POCKETS IN THE
DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE UPPER 20S
TO MIDDLE 30S DURING THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD RISE SOME OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - TURNING WARMER AND WET MONDAY
 - A POSSIBLE MIDWEEK STORM...ESPECIALLY FOR SE NEW ENGLAND
 - LOOKING COLDER INTO THANKSGIVING

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

TRENDING +AO/NAO WITH NEAR-NEUTRAL PNA SUGGESTS A MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN AND MILD. NO SURPRISE TO SEE A LACK OF DEEP CLOSED-LOW H5
DISTURBANCES...THOUGH AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH ABUNDANCE OF PACIFIC-
ORIGIN WAVES MAINTAINING TROUGHING BETWEEN SECTORS OF ABOVE-AVERAGE
OCEAN TEMPERATURES OVER THE NE-PACIFIC AND NW-ATLANTIC.

SOME OF THOSE WAVES ARE WELL OUT IN THE PACIFIC AND HAVE NOT EVEN
BEEN SAMPLED. THE WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WINTER-STORM POTENTIAL
FOR THE MIDWEEK / THANKSGIVING PERIOD IS JUST S OF THE FURTHEST E
ALEUTAIN ISLANDS OF ALASKA. NOTING THIS...HAVE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
THROUGH EARLY-NEXT WEEK WITH THE FORECAST...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE FOR A
POTENTIAL MIDWEEK STORM. WILL HIT UP THE DETAILS BELOW.

SO FOR SUNDAY...

CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH DISTURBANCE.
DISSIPATING BENEATH A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE / SUBSIDENCE. BENEATH
THE WARM-SECTOR AND RETURN S-FLOW ROUND THE HIGH PUSHING OFF INTO
THE ATLANTIC...H925 TEMPERATURES NEARLY +10C...MAY SEE HIGHS WARM
WELL INTO THE 50S WITH ANY SUNSHINE.

AS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...

WARM-FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING BROADSCALE LIFT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW
ACROSS THE C-CONUS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION BECOMES THE FOCUS
FOR RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. NON-DIURNAL WARMING TREND OVERNIGHT. ALL-
RAIN EVENT. MAIN CONCERNS ARE WITH BOTH WINDS AND RAIN.

WITH WINDS: STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET CENTERED AROUND MONDAY MORNING WITH
WINDS 1-2 KFT AGL MODEL-CONSENSUS AVERAGING AROUND 50 MPH /45 KTS/.
SUGGESTED BOUNDARY-LAYER DECOUPLING BENEATH MUCH WARMER AIR BETWEEN
H925-85. BUT IF 2M TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER AS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
COULD BE WARMER SUNDAY NIGHT AIDING IN LOW-LEVEL MIXING. ALSO NEED
TO CONSIDER ANY HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD ALSO AID WITH DRAGGING FASTER
MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE. OVERALL: MAIN CONCERN ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND
AND HIGH TERRAIN ABOVE 1 KFT. WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY. CIPS
ANALOG GUIDANCE HAS JUST ABOVE 50-PERCENT FOR WINDS > 35 MPH.

WITH RAIN: BROADSCALE ASCENT OF THE WARM-CONVEYER-BELT WITH PWATS UP
TO 1.5-INCHES AND ANOMALOUS HIGH-THETAE AIR. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET TO THE PARENT WARM-FRONT. EXPECT A BROAD
NW-SE BAND OF RAIN WITH PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED LINE OF HEAVIER RAIN. IT
MOVES THROUGH NOTABLY QUICK. MODEL-CONSENSUS AVERAGE RAIN AMOUNTS
ARE AROUND 0.50 - 0.75 INCHES. AM NOT EXPECTING ANY FLOOD ISSUES.

INTO MONDAY...

RAINS FOR THE MORNING...IMPROVING AFTERNOON. IF WE CLEAR AS H925
TEMPERATURES WARM TO +14C THEN WE COULD POSSIBLY SEE HIGHS INTO THE
MID- TO UPPER-60S /+18C/ POSSIBLY TO NEAR 70. MODEL-CONSENSUS H925
WINDS AVERAGE AROUND 45 MPH /40 KTS/ AND WITH WARMER CONDITIONS
COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXING OUT TO H9 AND MOMENTUM MIX-DOWN.
WILL HINT AT THIS IN THE FORECAST...BUT MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

WILL GO WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS...BUT THE MAIN PUMP OF MOISTURE
SHOULD BE WELL OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE THE MAIN COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO
THE DEEPENING LOW LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION SWEEPS
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. EXPECTING DRY AND COOLER WEATHER FOR TUESDAY...
PERHAPS CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...

JUST TOO EARLY TO SAY. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS VARY
CONSIDERABLY WITH SURFACE LOW CENTERS AROUND THE ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH
KEY UPON A LOW SE OF THE 40N / 70W BENCHMARK AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HAVE CONCERNS FOR SE NEW ENGLAND WHICH COULD SEE THE GREATEST IMPACT
WHILE NOTING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER S-CANADA /WITH THE CENTER
OVER THE C-CONUS/. THE GFS-UPGRADED /T1534/ IS A FAR OUTLIER AND IS
NOT CONSIDERED WITH THIS FORECAST.

EVALUATING SYNOPTICS...THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A COASTAL STORM
BUT MORE OF A WAVE LOW ALONG THE OFFSHORE STALLED FRONT. AS BEEN THE
CASE THIS YEAR...COLD AIR HAS BEEN PLUNGING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
BUT ITS TRUE BITE REMAINS MAINLY N/W OF OUR REGION. DO HAVE SOME
CONFIDENCE THAT THE WAVE LOW WILL HUG CLOSER TO THE COAST. THEN IT
COMES TO BREAKING DOWN TIMING / ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS / THERMAL FIELDS
WHICH RIGHT NOW ARE AGAIN TOO EARLY TO DIAGNOSE. THERE HAS BEEN A
CONSISTENT SIGNAL. STORM BEARS WATCHING.

EXPECTING A RETURN OF ARCTIC AIR BEHIND WHATEVER MIDWEEK SYSTEM THAT
MAY EMERGE. DAY 6-8 CIPS ANALOGS HAVE HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE SE-CONUS INTO THE OHIO-RIVER VALLEY
CENTERED AROUND THE LATE-THANKSGIVING WEEK PERIOD. EC ENSEMBLES AT
H85 HAVE THE FREEZING MARK PLUNGING TO NEARLY THE GULF COAST...WITH
-10C AIR INTO NEW ENGLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR. MID LEVEL CIGS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.
INCREASING SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN.

TONIGHT...MAINLY LOW-END VFR CIGS DEVELOPING BUT LOW PROB FOR MVFR
WITH A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED. ISOLATED POCKETS OF -FZRA POSSIBLE
IN W MA AND SW NH. ANY ICING WILL BE VERY LIGHT. SW WIND GUSTS TO
25-30 KT NEAR THE COAST...POSSIBLY UP TO 35 KT CAPE/ISLANDS.

SUNDAY...VFR CIGS. SW GUSTS TO 25 KT CAPE/ISLANDS IN THE
MORNING...THEN DIMINISHING WIND.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. EXPECT VFR CIGS TONIGHT BUT A
FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. SW GUSTS 25-30 KT DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY -FZRA. LOW PROB FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS DETERIORATE MVFR-LIFR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WITH +RA AND STRONG S-WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS POSSIBLE...
OTHERWISE LLWS IMPACTS WITH 50 KT S-WINDS 2 KFT AGL. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE BY MIDDAY...BUT COULD SEE CONTINUED SW-WINDS AROUND 25 KTS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

W-FLOW WITH MAINLY VFR.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ESPECIALLY
TO THE SE-TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

7 PM UPDATE...

WILL ALLOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO DROP ON BOSTON HARBOR AND
NARRAGANSETT BAY...BUT PREVAIL ALL OTHER WATERS TOWARDS SATURDAY
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ALLOWING WINDS TO
GRADUALLY RELAX OUT OF THE W/NW.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES E ALLOWING FOR A FAST-FLOWING RETURN SW-FLOW
OF AIR OVER THE WATERS. COLDER AIR OVER WATER WATERS...EXPECT SW-
GUSTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING GALE FORCE LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE THREAT OF GUSTS OVER THE PERIOD OF
35 KTS. SEAS LIKELY BUILDING 6 TO 9 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE S/SE-WATERS. WILL ALLOW THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT TO
EVALUATE AS TO WHETHER TO GO WITH GALE WARNINGS OR HIGH-END
SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORIES.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS IMPROVING AS SW-WINDS TURN S AND RELAX. WILL SEE WAVE
ACTION DISSIPATE BELOW SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS DETERIORATE INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH RAIN OVER THE WATERS
AND EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS. VISIBILITY IMPACTS POSSIBLE. WINDS
INCREASING OUT OF THE S. GUSTS EXCEEDING GALE FORCE APPEAR LIKELY.
WAVES SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASING TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS TURNING SW REMAINING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KTS.
WAVES MAINTAINED WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE
WATERS YET DETAILS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ231-
     251-255-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
     254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...KJC/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FRANK/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 220235
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
935 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A DRY BUT VERY COLD NIGHT...TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME
SATURDAY ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
SIGNIFICANT WARM UP SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY...BUT WITH A
PERIOD OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. QUIET FOR TUESDAY BUT
CONDITIONS MAY CHANGE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE THREAT OF A STORM
SYSTEM. TURNING COLDER INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRES IN CONTROL BRINGING CLEAR AND DIMINISHING WIND. SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SPILLING INTO THE BERKSHIRES MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS
TO W MA THROUGH 06Z THEN LOW LEVEL DRYING TAKES PLACE. EXPECT A
NICE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS WINDS
CONTINUE TO DECOUPLE RESULTING IN LOWS INTO THE TEENS...WITH
SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE ACROSS NW MA AND SW NH...WELL BELOW-NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MILDEST READINGS IN THE 20S WILL BE IN
BOS...OUTER CAPE/ISLANDS AND AREAS ADJACENT TO NARRAGANSETT BAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC ALLOWING FOR STRONG MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TO DEVELOP. THE RESPONSE WILL BE AN INCREASE
IN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AS THE DAY WEARS ON...BUT IT WILL
REMAIN DRY GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

DESPITE THE WARM ADVECTION ALOFT...IT WILL TAKE TIME FOR THAT TO BE
COMPLETELY REALIZED AT THE SURFACE. WHILE IT WILL BE MILDER THAN
TODAY...HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S WITH SOME MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S ON THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS. HOWEVER...EXPECTING SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
MPH TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS A BIT STRONGER ALONG
THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL STILL MAKE IT FEEL
RATHER CHILLY OUTSIDE FOR NOVEMBER STANDARDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT.
THERE STILL SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCING TO BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WHILE IT CERTAINLY WILL BE TOO
WARM ALOFT FOR ANY SNOW...THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS WILL IT BE COLD
ENOUGH AT THE SURFACE FOR SOME POCKETS OF SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR. ITS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AND WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED...BUT ITS NOT AN IDEAL SETUP. THERE IS A LOT OF WIND
OFF THE DECK AND PROBABLY ENOUGH TO PREVENT MOST AREAS FROM
DECOUPLING. GIVEN WERE +4C AT 850 MB SOME OF THIS MILDER AIR WILL
BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL LIGHT ICING
THREAT...BUT STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED POCKETS IN THE
DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE UPPER 20S
TO MIDDLE 30S DURING THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD RISE SOME OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - TURNING WARMER AND WET MONDAY
 - A POSSIBLE MIDWEEK STORM...ESPECIALLY FOR SE NEW ENGLAND
 - LOOKING COLDER INTO THANKSGIVING

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

TRENDING +AO/NAO WITH NEAR-NEUTRAL PNA SUGGESTS A MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN AND MILD. NO SURPRISE TO SEE A LACK OF DEEP CLOSED-LOW H5
DISTURBANCES...THOUGH AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH ABUNDANCE OF PACIFIC-
ORIGIN WAVES MAINTAINING TROUGHING BETWEEN SECTORS OF ABOVE-AVERAGE
OCEAN TEMPERATURES OVER THE NE-PACIFIC AND NW-ATLANTIC.

SOME OF THOSE WAVES ARE WELL OUT IN THE PACIFIC AND HAVE NOT EVEN
BEEN SAMPLED. THE WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WINTER-STORM POTENTIAL
FOR THE MIDWEEK / THANKSGIVING PERIOD IS JUST S OF THE FURTHEST E
ALEUTAIN ISLANDS OF ALASKA. NOTING THIS...HAVE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
THROUGH EARLY-NEXT WEEK WITH THE FORECAST...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE FOR A
POTENTIAL MIDWEEK STORM. WILL HIT UP THE DETAILS BELOW.

SO FOR SUNDAY...

CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH DISTURBANCE.
DISSIPATING BENEATH A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE / SUBSIDENCE. BENEATH
THE WARM-SECTOR AND RETURN S-FLOW ROUND THE HIGH PUSHING OFF INTO
THE ATLANTIC...H925 TEMPERATURES NEARLY +10C...MAY SEE HIGHS WARM
WELL INTO THE 50S WITH ANY SUNSHINE.

AS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...

WARM-FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING BROADSCALE LIFT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW
ACROSS THE C-CONUS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION BECOMES THE FOCUS
FOR RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. NON-DIURNAL WARMING TREND OVERNIGHT. ALL-
RAIN EVENT. MAIN CONCERNS ARE WITH BOTH WINDS AND RAIN.

WITH WINDS: STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET CENTERED AROUND MONDAY MORNING WITH
WINDS 1-2 KFT AGL MODEL-CONSENSUS AVERAGING AROUND 50 MPH /45 KTS/.
SUGGESTED BOUNDARY-LAYER DECOUPLING BENEATH MUCH WARMER AIR BETWEEN
H925-85. BUT IF 2M TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER AS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
COULD BE WARMER SUNDAY NIGHT AIDING IN LOW-LEVEL MIXING. ALSO NEED
TO CONSIDER ANY HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD ALSO AID WITH DRAGGING FASTER
MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE. OVERALL: MAIN CONCERN ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND
AND HIGH TERRAIN ABOVE 1 KFT. WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY. CIPS
ANALOG GUIDANCE HAS JUST ABOVE 50-PERCENT FOR WINDS > 35 MPH.

WITH RAIN: BROADSCALE ASCENT OF THE WARM-CONVEYER-BELT WITH PWATS UP
TO 1.5-INCHES AND ANOMALOUS HIGH-THETAE AIR. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET TO THE PARENT WARM-FRONT. EXPECT A BROAD
NW-SE BAND OF RAIN WITH PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED LINE OF HEAVIER RAIN. IT
MOVES THROUGH NOTABLY QUICK. MODEL-CONSENSUS AVERAGE RAIN AMOUNTS
ARE AROUND 0.50 - 0.75 INCHES. AM NOT EXPECTING ANY FLOOD ISSUES.

INTO MONDAY...

RAINS FOR THE MORNING...IMPROVING AFTERNOON. IF WE CLEAR AS H925
TEMPERATURES WARM TO +14C THEN WE COULD POSSIBLY SEE HIGHS INTO THE
MID- TO UPPER-60S /+18C/ POSSIBLY TO NEAR 70. MODEL-CONSENSUS H925
WINDS AVERAGE AROUND 45 MPH /40 KTS/ AND WITH WARMER CONDITIONS
COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXING OUT TO H9 AND MOMENTUM MIX-DOWN.
WILL HINT AT THIS IN THE FORECAST...BUT MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

WILL GO WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS...BUT THE MAIN PUMP OF MOISTURE
SHOULD BE WELL OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE THE MAIN COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO
THE DEEPENING LOW LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION SWEEPS
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. EXPECTING DRY AND COOLER WEATHER FOR TUESDAY...
PERHAPS CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...

JUST TOO EARLY TO SAY. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS VARY
CONSIDERABLY WITH SURFACE LOW CENTERS AROUND THE ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH
KEY UPON A LOW SE OF THE 40N / 70W BENCHMARK AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HAVE CONCERNS FOR SE NEW ENGLAND WHICH COULD SEE THE GREATEST IMPACT
WHILE NOTING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER S-CANADA /WITH THE CENTER
OVER THE C-CONUS/. THE GFS-UPGRADED /T1534/ IS A FAR OUTLIER AND IS
NOT CONSIDERED WITH THIS FORECAST.

EVALUATING SYNOPTICS...THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A COASTAL STORM
BUT MORE OF A WAVE LOW ALONG THE OFFSHORE STALLED FRONT. AS BEEN THE
CASE THIS YEAR...COLD AIR HAS BEEN PLUNGING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
BUT ITS TRUE BITE REMAINS MAINLY N/W OF OUR REGION. DO HAVE SOME
CONFIDENCE THAT THE WAVE LOW WILL HUG CLOSER TO THE COAST. THEN IT
COMES TO BREAKING DOWN TIMING / ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS / THERMAL FIELDS
WHICH RIGHT NOW ARE AGAIN TOO EARLY TO DIAGNOSE. THERE HAS BEEN A
CONSISTENT SIGNAL. STORM BEARS WATCHING.

EXPECTING A RETURN OF ARCTIC AIR BEHIND WHATEVER MIDWEEK SYSTEM THAT
MAY EMERGE. DAY 6-8 CIPS ANALOGS HAVE HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE SE-CONUS INTO THE OHIO-RIVER VALLEY
CENTERED AROUND THE LATE-THANKSGIVING WEEK PERIOD. EC ENSEMBLES AT
H85 HAVE THE FREEZING MARK PLUNGING TO NEARLY THE GULF COAST...WITH
-10C AIR INTO NEW ENGLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

0Z UPDATE...

VFR OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LIGHTS WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH
BREEZY W/NW FLOW ALONG THE SHORES WILL ENHANCE SATURDAY OUT OF THE
SW WITH LIKELY GUSTS 20-30 KTS BY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY UP TO 35
KTS AT TIMES /ESPECIALLY OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS/.

LOW-END VFR SATURDAY NIGHT. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE WITH
ANY -SHRA. ISOLATED POCKETS OF -FZRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
IF ANY ICING IT IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT. WINDS REMAINING AN
ISSUE WITH SW-GUSTS 20-30 KTS...POSSIBLY UP TO 35 KTS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN OF E/SE NEW ENGLAND.

KBOS TERMINAL...WILL HOLD VFR AND KEEP SW-WINDS AROUND 240 BRISK
THROUGHOUT BEGINNING SATURDAY. PERHAPS ISSUES ON 15/33. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY -FZRA AT THE TERMINAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...IF ANY THREAT OF -FZRA ANTICIPATING IMPACTS AROUND
0-6Z SUNDAY /7 PM SATURDAY TO 1 AM SUNDAY/. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INITIAL -SHRA EARLY SUNDAY WITH LOW-END VFR FOLLOWED BY SOME BRIEF
IMPROVEMENT. WINDS TURNING S.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS DETERIORATE MVFR-LIFR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WITH +RA AND STRONG S-WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS POSSIBLE...
OTHERWISE LLWS IMPACTS WITH 50 KT S-WINDS 2 KFT AGL. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE BY MIDDAY...BUT COULD SEE CONTINUED SW-WINDS AROUND 25 KTS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

W-FLOW WITH MAINLY VFR.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ESPECIALLY
TO THE SE-TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

7 PM UPDATE...

WILL ALLOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO DROP ON BOSTON HARBOR AND
NARRAGANSETT BAY...BUT PREVAIL ALL OTHER WATERS TOWARDS SATURDAY
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ALLOWING WINDS TO
GRADUALLY RELAX OUT OF THE W/NW.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES E ALLOWING FOR A FAST-FLOWING RETURN SW-FLOW
OF AIR OVER THE WATERS. COLDER AIR OVER WATER WATERS...EXPECT SW-
GUSTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING GALE FORCE LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE THREAT OF GUSTS OVER THE PERIOD OF
35 KTS. SEAS LIKELY BUILDING 6 TO 9 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE S/SE-WATERS. WILL ALLOW THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT TO
EVALUATE AS TO WHETHER TO GO WITH GALE WARNINGS OR HIGH-END
SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORIES.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS IMPROVING AS SW-WINDS TURN S AND RELAX. WILL SEE WAVE
ACTION DISSIPATE BELOW SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS DETERIORATE INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH RAIN OVER THE WATERS
AND EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS. VISIBILITY IMPACTS POSSIBLE. WINDS
INCREASING OUT OF THE S. GUSTS EXCEEDING GALE FORCE APPEAR LIKELY.
WAVES SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASING TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS TURNING SW REMAINING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KTS.
WAVES MAINTAINED WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE
WATERS YET DETAILS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ232>235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ231-251-
     255-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...FRANK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FRANK/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 220235
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
935 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A DRY BUT VERY COLD NIGHT...TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME
SATURDAY ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
SIGNIFICANT WARM UP SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY...BUT WITH A
PERIOD OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. QUIET FOR TUESDAY BUT
CONDITIONS MAY CHANGE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE THREAT OF A STORM
SYSTEM. TURNING COLDER INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRES IN CONTROL BRINGING CLEAR AND DIMINISHING WIND. SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SPILLING INTO THE BERKSHIRES MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS
TO W MA THROUGH 06Z THEN LOW LEVEL DRYING TAKES PLACE. EXPECT A
NICE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS WINDS
CONTINUE TO DECOUPLE RESULTING IN LOWS INTO THE TEENS...WITH
SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE ACROSS NW MA AND SW NH...WELL BELOW-NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MILDEST READINGS IN THE 20S WILL BE IN
BOS...OUTER CAPE/ISLANDS AND AREAS ADJACENT TO NARRAGANSETT BAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC ALLOWING FOR STRONG MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TO DEVELOP. THE RESPONSE WILL BE AN INCREASE
IN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AS THE DAY WEARS ON...BUT IT WILL
REMAIN DRY GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

DESPITE THE WARM ADVECTION ALOFT...IT WILL TAKE TIME FOR THAT TO BE
COMPLETELY REALIZED AT THE SURFACE. WHILE IT WILL BE MILDER THAN
TODAY...HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S WITH SOME MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S ON THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS. HOWEVER...EXPECTING SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
MPH TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS A BIT STRONGER ALONG
THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL STILL MAKE IT FEEL
RATHER CHILLY OUTSIDE FOR NOVEMBER STANDARDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT.
THERE STILL SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCING TO BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WHILE IT CERTAINLY WILL BE TOO
WARM ALOFT FOR ANY SNOW...THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS WILL IT BE COLD
ENOUGH AT THE SURFACE FOR SOME POCKETS OF SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR. ITS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AND WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED...BUT ITS NOT AN IDEAL SETUP. THERE IS A LOT OF WIND
OFF THE DECK AND PROBABLY ENOUGH TO PREVENT MOST AREAS FROM
DECOUPLING. GIVEN WERE +4C AT 850 MB SOME OF THIS MILDER AIR WILL
BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL LIGHT ICING
THREAT...BUT STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED POCKETS IN THE
DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE UPPER 20S
TO MIDDLE 30S DURING THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD RISE SOME OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - TURNING WARMER AND WET MONDAY
 - A POSSIBLE MIDWEEK STORM...ESPECIALLY FOR SE NEW ENGLAND
 - LOOKING COLDER INTO THANKSGIVING

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

TRENDING +AO/NAO WITH NEAR-NEUTRAL PNA SUGGESTS A MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN AND MILD. NO SURPRISE TO SEE A LACK OF DEEP CLOSED-LOW H5
DISTURBANCES...THOUGH AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH ABUNDANCE OF PACIFIC-
ORIGIN WAVES MAINTAINING TROUGHING BETWEEN SECTORS OF ABOVE-AVERAGE
OCEAN TEMPERATURES OVER THE NE-PACIFIC AND NW-ATLANTIC.

SOME OF THOSE WAVES ARE WELL OUT IN THE PACIFIC AND HAVE NOT EVEN
BEEN SAMPLED. THE WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WINTER-STORM POTENTIAL
FOR THE MIDWEEK / THANKSGIVING PERIOD IS JUST S OF THE FURTHEST E
ALEUTAIN ISLANDS OF ALASKA. NOTING THIS...HAVE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
THROUGH EARLY-NEXT WEEK WITH THE FORECAST...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE FOR A
POTENTIAL MIDWEEK STORM. WILL HIT UP THE DETAILS BELOW.

SO FOR SUNDAY...

CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH DISTURBANCE.
DISSIPATING BENEATH A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE / SUBSIDENCE. BENEATH
THE WARM-SECTOR AND RETURN S-FLOW ROUND THE HIGH PUSHING OFF INTO
THE ATLANTIC...H925 TEMPERATURES NEARLY +10C...MAY SEE HIGHS WARM
WELL INTO THE 50S WITH ANY SUNSHINE.

AS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...

WARM-FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING BROADSCALE LIFT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW
ACROSS THE C-CONUS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION BECOMES THE FOCUS
FOR RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. NON-DIURNAL WARMING TREND OVERNIGHT. ALL-
RAIN EVENT. MAIN CONCERNS ARE WITH BOTH WINDS AND RAIN.

WITH WINDS: STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET CENTERED AROUND MONDAY MORNING WITH
WINDS 1-2 KFT AGL MODEL-CONSENSUS AVERAGING AROUND 50 MPH /45 KTS/.
SUGGESTED BOUNDARY-LAYER DECOUPLING BENEATH MUCH WARMER AIR BETWEEN
H925-85. BUT IF 2M TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER AS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
COULD BE WARMER SUNDAY NIGHT AIDING IN LOW-LEVEL MIXING. ALSO NEED
TO CONSIDER ANY HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD ALSO AID WITH DRAGGING FASTER
MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE. OVERALL: MAIN CONCERN ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND
AND HIGH TERRAIN ABOVE 1 KFT. WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY. CIPS
ANALOG GUIDANCE HAS JUST ABOVE 50-PERCENT FOR WINDS > 35 MPH.

WITH RAIN: BROADSCALE ASCENT OF THE WARM-CONVEYER-BELT WITH PWATS UP
TO 1.5-INCHES AND ANOMALOUS HIGH-THETAE AIR. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET TO THE PARENT WARM-FRONT. EXPECT A BROAD
NW-SE BAND OF RAIN WITH PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED LINE OF HEAVIER RAIN. IT
MOVES THROUGH NOTABLY QUICK. MODEL-CONSENSUS AVERAGE RAIN AMOUNTS
ARE AROUND 0.50 - 0.75 INCHES. AM NOT EXPECTING ANY FLOOD ISSUES.

INTO MONDAY...

RAINS FOR THE MORNING...IMPROVING AFTERNOON. IF WE CLEAR AS H925
TEMPERATURES WARM TO +14C THEN WE COULD POSSIBLY SEE HIGHS INTO THE
MID- TO UPPER-60S /+18C/ POSSIBLY TO NEAR 70. MODEL-CONSENSUS H925
WINDS AVERAGE AROUND 45 MPH /40 KTS/ AND WITH WARMER CONDITIONS
COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXING OUT TO H9 AND MOMENTUM MIX-DOWN.
WILL HINT AT THIS IN THE FORECAST...BUT MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

WILL GO WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS...BUT THE MAIN PUMP OF MOISTURE
SHOULD BE WELL OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE THE MAIN COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO
THE DEEPENING LOW LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION SWEEPS
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. EXPECTING DRY AND COOLER WEATHER FOR TUESDAY...
PERHAPS CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...

JUST TOO EARLY TO SAY. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS VARY
CONSIDERABLY WITH SURFACE LOW CENTERS AROUND THE ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH
KEY UPON A LOW SE OF THE 40N / 70W BENCHMARK AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HAVE CONCERNS FOR SE NEW ENGLAND WHICH COULD SEE THE GREATEST IMPACT
WHILE NOTING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER S-CANADA /WITH THE CENTER
OVER THE C-CONUS/. THE GFS-UPGRADED /T1534/ IS A FAR OUTLIER AND IS
NOT CONSIDERED WITH THIS FORECAST.

EVALUATING SYNOPTICS...THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A COASTAL STORM
BUT MORE OF A WAVE LOW ALONG THE OFFSHORE STALLED FRONT. AS BEEN THE
CASE THIS YEAR...COLD AIR HAS BEEN PLUNGING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
BUT ITS TRUE BITE REMAINS MAINLY N/W OF OUR REGION. DO HAVE SOME
CONFIDENCE THAT THE WAVE LOW WILL HUG CLOSER TO THE COAST. THEN IT
COMES TO BREAKING DOWN TIMING / ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS / THERMAL FIELDS
WHICH RIGHT NOW ARE AGAIN TOO EARLY TO DIAGNOSE. THERE HAS BEEN A
CONSISTENT SIGNAL. STORM BEARS WATCHING.

EXPECTING A RETURN OF ARCTIC AIR BEHIND WHATEVER MIDWEEK SYSTEM THAT
MAY EMERGE. DAY 6-8 CIPS ANALOGS HAVE HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE SE-CONUS INTO THE OHIO-RIVER VALLEY
CENTERED AROUND THE LATE-THANKSGIVING WEEK PERIOD. EC ENSEMBLES AT
H85 HAVE THE FREEZING MARK PLUNGING TO NEARLY THE GULF COAST...WITH
-10C AIR INTO NEW ENGLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

0Z UPDATE...

VFR OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LIGHTS WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH
BREEZY W/NW FLOW ALONG THE SHORES WILL ENHANCE SATURDAY OUT OF THE
SW WITH LIKELY GUSTS 20-30 KTS BY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY UP TO 35
KTS AT TIMES /ESPECIALLY OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS/.

LOW-END VFR SATURDAY NIGHT. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE WITH
ANY -SHRA. ISOLATED POCKETS OF -FZRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
IF ANY ICING IT IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT. WINDS REMAINING AN
ISSUE WITH SW-GUSTS 20-30 KTS...POSSIBLY UP TO 35 KTS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN OF E/SE NEW ENGLAND.

KBOS TERMINAL...WILL HOLD VFR AND KEEP SW-WINDS AROUND 240 BRISK
THROUGHOUT BEGINNING SATURDAY. PERHAPS ISSUES ON 15/33. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY -FZRA AT THE TERMINAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...IF ANY THREAT OF -FZRA ANTICIPATING IMPACTS AROUND
0-6Z SUNDAY /7 PM SATURDAY TO 1 AM SUNDAY/. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INITIAL -SHRA EARLY SUNDAY WITH LOW-END VFR FOLLOWED BY SOME BRIEF
IMPROVEMENT. WINDS TURNING S.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS DETERIORATE MVFR-LIFR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WITH +RA AND STRONG S-WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS POSSIBLE...
OTHERWISE LLWS IMPACTS WITH 50 KT S-WINDS 2 KFT AGL. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE BY MIDDAY...BUT COULD SEE CONTINUED SW-WINDS AROUND 25 KTS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

W-FLOW WITH MAINLY VFR.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ESPECIALLY
TO THE SE-TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

7 PM UPDATE...

WILL ALLOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO DROP ON BOSTON HARBOR AND
NARRAGANSETT BAY...BUT PREVAIL ALL OTHER WATERS TOWARDS SATURDAY
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ALLOWING WINDS TO
GRADUALLY RELAX OUT OF THE W/NW.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES E ALLOWING FOR A FAST-FLOWING RETURN SW-FLOW
OF AIR OVER THE WATERS. COLDER AIR OVER WATER WATERS...EXPECT SW-
GUSTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING GALE FORCE LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE THREAT OF GUSTS OVER THE PERIOD OF
35 KTS. SEAS LIKELY BUILDING 6 TO 9 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE S/SE-WATERS. WILL ALLOW THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT TO
EVALUATE AS TO WHETHER TO GO WITH GALE WARNINGS OR HIGH-END
SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORIES.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS IMPROVING AS SW-WINDS TURN S AND RELAX. WILL SEE WAVE
ACTION DISSIPATE BELOW SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS DETERIORATE INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH RAIN OVER THE WATERS
AND EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS. VISIBILITY IMPACTS POSSIBLE. WINDS
INCREASING OUT OF THE S. GUSTS EXCEEDING GALE FORCE APPEAR LIKELY.
WAVES SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASING TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS TURNING SW REMAINING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KTS.
WAVES MAINTAINED WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE
WATERS YET DETAILS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ232>235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ231-251-
     255-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...FRANK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FRANK/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 220235
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
935 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A DRY BUT VERY COLD NIGHT...TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME
SATURDAY ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
SIGNIFICANT WARM UP SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY...BUT WITH A
PERIOD OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. QUIET FOR TUESDAY BUT
CONDITIONS MAY CHANGE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE THREAT OF A STORM
SYSTEM. TURNING COLDER INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRES IN CONTROL BRINGING CLEAR AND DIMINISHING WIND. SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SPILLING INTO THE BERKSHIRES MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS
TO W MA THROUGH 06Z THEN LOW LEVEL DRYING TAKES PLACE. EXPECT A
NICE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS WINDS
CONTINUE TO DECOUPLE RESULTING IN LOWS INTO THE TEENS...WITH
SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE ACROSS NW MA AND SW NH...WELL BELOW-NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MILDEST READINGS IN THE 20S WILL BE IN
BOS...OUTER CAPE/ISLANDS AND AREAS ADJACENT TO NARRAGANSETT BAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC ALLOWING FOR STRONG MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TO DEVELOP. THE RESPONSE WILL BE AN INCREASE
IN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AS THE DAY WEARS ON...BUT IT WILL
REMAIN DRY GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

DESPITE THE WARM ADVECTION ALOFT...IT WILL TAKE TIME FOR THAT TO BE
COMPLETELY REALIZED AT THE SURFACE. WHILE IT WILL BE MILDER THAN
TODAY...HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S WITH SOME MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S ON THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS. HOWEVER...EXPECTING SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
MPH TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS A BIT STRONGER ALONG
THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL STILL MAKE IT FEEL
RATHER CHILLY OUTSIDE FOR NOVEMBER STANDARDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT.
THERE STILL SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCING TO BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WHILE IT CERTAINLY WILL BE TOO
WARM ALOFT FOR ANY SNOW...THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS WILL IT BE COLD
ENOUGH AT THE SURFACE FOR SOME POCKETS OF SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR. ITS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AND WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED...BUT ITS NOT AN IDEAL SETUP. THERE IS A LOT OF WIND
OFF THE DECK AND PROBABLY ENOUGH TO PREVENT MOST AREAS FROM
DECOUPLING. GIVEN WERE +4C AT 850 MB SOME OF THIS MILDER AIR WILL
BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL LIGHT ICING
THREAT...BUT STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED POCKETS IN THE
DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE UPPER 20S
TO MIDDLE 30S DURING THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD RISE SOME OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - TURNING WARMER AND WET MONDAY
 - A POSSIBLE MIDWEEK STORM...ESPECIALLY FOR SE NEW ENGLAND
 - LOOKING COLDER INTO THANKSGIVING

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

TRENDING +AO/NAO WITH NEAR-NEUTRAL PNA SUGGESTS A MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN AND MILD. NO SURPRISE TO SEE A LACK OF DEEP CLOSED-LOW H5
DISTURBANCES...THOUGH AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH ABUNDANCE OF PACIFIC-
ORIGIN WAVES MAINTAINING TROUGHING BETWEEN SECTORS OF ABOVE-AVERAGE
OCEAN TEMPERATURES OVER THE NE-PACIFIC AND NW-ATLANTIC.

SOME OF THOSE WAVES ARE WELL OUT IN THE PACIFIC AND HAVE NOT EVEN
BEEN SAMPLED. THE WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WINTER-STORM POTENTIAL
FOR THE MIDWEEK / THANKSGIVING PERIOD IS JUST S OF THE FURTHEST E
ALEUTAIN ISLANDS OF ALASKA. NOTING THIS...HAVE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
THROUGH EARLY-NEXT WEEK WITH THE FORECAST...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE FOR A
POTENTIAL MIDWEEK STORM. WILL HIT UP THE DETAILS BELOW.

SO FOR SUNDAY...

CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH DISTURBANCE.
DISSIPATING BENEATH A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE / SUBSIDENCE. BENEATH
THE WARM-SECTOR AND RETURN S-FLOW ROUND THE HIGH PUSHING OFF INTO
THE ATLANTIC...H925 TEMPERATURES NEARLY +10C...MAY SEE HIGHS WARM
WELL INTO THE 50S WITH ANY SUNSHINE.

AS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...

WARM-FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING BROADSCALE LIFT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW
ACROSS THE C-CONUS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION BECOMES THE FOCUS
FOR RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. NON-DIURNAL WARMING TREND OVERNIGHT. ALL-
RAIN EVENT. MAIN CONCERNS ARE WITH BOTH WINDS AND RAIN.

WITH WINDS: STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET CENTERED AROUND MONDAY MORNING WITH
WINDS 1-2 KFT AGL MODEL-CONSENSUS AVERAGING AROUND 50 MPH /45 KTS/.
SUGGESTED BOUNDARY-LAYER DECOUPLING BENEATH MUCH WARMER AIR BETWEEN
H925-85. BUT IF 2M TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER AS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
COULD BE WARMER SUNDAY NIGHT AIDING IN LOW-LEVEL MIXING. ALSO NEED
TO CONSIDER ANY HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD ALSO AID WITH DRAGGING FASTER
MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE. OVERALL: MAIN CONCERN ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND
AND HIGH TERRAIN ABOVE 1 KFT. WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY. CIPS
ANALOG GUIDANCE HAS JUST ABOVE 50-PERCENT FOR WINDS > 35 MPH.

WITH RAIN: BROADSCALE ASCENT OF THE WARM-CONVEYER-BELT WITH PWATS UP
TO 1.5-INCHES AND ANOMALOUS HIGH-THETAE AIR. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET TO THE PARENT WARM-FRONT. EXPECT A BROAD
NW-SE BAND OF RAIN WITH PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED LINE OF HEAVIER RAIN. IT
MOVES THROUGH NOTABLY QUICK. MODEL-CONSENSUS AVERAGE RAIN AMOUNTS
ARE AROUND 0.50 - 0.75 INCHES. AM NOT EXPECTING ANY FLOOD ISSUES.

INTO MONDAY...

RAINS FOR THE MORNING...IMPROVING AFTERNOON. IF WE CLEAR AS H925
TEMPERATURES WARM TO +14C THEN WE COULD POSSIBLY SEE HIGHS INTO THE
MID- TO UPPER-60S /+18C/ POSSIBLY TO NEAR 70. MODEL-CONSENSUS H925
WINDS AVERAGE AROUND 45 MPH /40 KTS/ AND WITH WARMER CONDITIONS
COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXING OUT TO H9 AND MOMENTUM MIX-DOWN.
WILL HINT AT THIS IN THE FORECAST...BUT MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

WILL GO WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS...BUT THE MAIN PUMP OF MOISTURE
SHOULD BE WELL OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE THE MAIN COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO
THE DEEPENING LOW LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION SWEEPS
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. EXPECTING DRY AND COOLER WEATHER FOR TUESDAY...
PERHAPS CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...

JUST TOO EARLY TO SAY. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS VARY
CONSIDERABLY WITH SURFACE LOW CENTERS AROUND THE ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH
KEY UPON A LOW SE OF THE 40N / 70W BENCHMARK AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HAVE CONCERNS FOR SE NEW ENGLAND WHICH COULD SEE THE GREATEST IMPACT
WHILE NOTING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER S-CANADA /WITH THE CENTER
OVER THE C-CONUS/. THE GFS-UPGRADED /T1534/ IS A FAR OUTLIER AND IS
NOT CONSIDERED WITH THIS FORECAST.

EVALUATING SYNOPTICS...THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A COASTAL STORM
BUT MORE OF A WAVE LOW ALONG THE OFFSHORE STALLED FRONT. AS BEEN THE
CASE THIS YEAR...COLD AIR HAS BEEN PLUNGING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
BUT ITS TRUE BITE REMAINS MAINLY N/W OF OUR REGION. DO HAVE SOME
CONFIDENCE THAT THE WAVE LOW WILL HUG CLOSER TO THE COAST. THEN IT
COMES TO BREAKING DOWN TIMING / ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS / THERMAL FIELDS
WHICH RIGHT NOW ARE AGAIN TOO EARLY TO DIAGNOSE. THERE HAS BEEN A
CONSISTENT SIGNAL. STORM BEARS WATCHING.

EXPECTING A RETURN OF ARCTIC AIR BEHIND WHATEVER MIDWEEK SYSTEM THAT
MAY EMERGE. DAY 6-8 CIPS ANALOGS HAVE HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE SE-CONUS INTO THE OHIO-RIVER VALLEY
CENTERED AROUND THE LATE-THANKSGIVING WEEK PERIOD. EC ENSEMBLES AT
H85 HAVE THE FREEZING MARK PLUNGING TO NEARLY THE GULF COAST...WITH
-10C AIR INTO NEW ENGLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

0Z UPDATE...

VFR OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LIGHTS WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH
BREEZY W/NW FLOW ALONG THE SHORES WILL ENHANCE SATURDAY OUT OF THE
SW WITH LIKELY GUSTS 20-30 KTS BY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY UP TO 35
KTS AT TIMES /ESPECIALLY OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS/.

LOW-END VFR SATURDAY NIGHT. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE WITH
ANY -SHRA. ISOLATED POCKETS OF -FZRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
IF ANY ICING IT IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT. WINDS REMAINING AN
ISSUE WITH SW-GUSTS 20-30 KTS...POSSIBLY UP TO 35 KTS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN OF E/SE NEW ENGLAND.

KBOS TERMINAL...WILL HOLD VFR AND KEEP SW-WINDS AROUND 240 BRISK
THROUGHOUT BEGINNING SATURDAY. PERHAPS ISSUES ON 15/33. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY -FZRA AT THE TERMINAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...IF ANY THREAT OF -FZRA ANTICIPATING IMPACTS AROUND
0-6Z SUNDAY /7 PM SATURDAY TO 1 AM SUNDAY/. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INITIAL -SHRA EARLY SUNDAY WITH LOW-END VFR FOLLOWED BY SOME BRIEF
IMPROVEMENT. WINDS TURNING S.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS DETERIORATE MVFR-LIFR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WITH +RA AND STRONG S-WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS POSSIBLE...
OTHERWISE LLWS IMPACTS WITH 50 KT S-WINDS 2 KFT AGL. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE BY MIDDAY...BUT COULD SEE CONTINUED SW-WINDS AROUND 25 KTS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

W-FLOW WITH MAINLY VFR.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ESPECIALLY
TO THE SE-TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

7 PM UPDATE...

WILL ALLOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO DROP ON BOSTON HARBOR AND
NARRAGANSETT BAY...BUT PREVAIL ALL OTHER WATERS TOWARDS SATURDAY
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ALLOWING WINDS TO
GRADUALLY RELAX OUT OF THE W/NW.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES E ALLOWING FOR A FAST-FLOWING RETURN SW-FLOW
OF AIR OVER THE WATERS. COLDER AIR OVER WATER WATERS...EXPECT SW-
GUSTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING GALE FORCE LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE THREAT OF GUSTS OVER THE PERIOD OF
35 KTS. SEAS LIKELY BUILDING 6 TO 9 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE S/SE-WATERS. WILL ALLOW THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT TO
EVALUATE AS TO WHETHER TO GO WITH GALE WARNINGS OR HIGH-END
SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORIES.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS IMPROVING AS SW-WINDS TURN S AND RELAX. WILL SEE WAVE
ACTION DISSIPATE BELOW SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS DETERIORATE INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH RAIN OVER THE WATERS
AND EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS. VISIBILITY IMPACTS POSSIBLE. WINDS
INCREASING OUT OF THE S. GUSTS EXCEEDING GALE FORCE APPEAR LIKELY.
WAVES SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASING TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS TURNING SW REMAINING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KTS.
WAVES MAINTAINED WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE
WATERS YET DETAILS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ232>235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ231-251-
     255-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...FRANK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FRANK/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 220235
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
935 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A DRY BUT VERY COLD NIGHT...TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME
SATURDAY ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
SIGNIFICANT WARM UP SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY...BUT WITH A
PERIOD OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. QUIET FOR TUESDAY BUT
CONDITIONS MAY CHANGE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE THREAT OF A STORM
SYSTEM. TURNING COLDER INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRES IN CONTROL BRINGING CLEAR AND DIMINISHING WIND. SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SPILLING INTO THE BERKSHIRES MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS
TO W MA THROUGH 06Z THEN LOW LEVEL DRYING TAKES PLACE. EXPECT A
NICE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS WINDS
CONTINUE TO DECOUPLE RESULTING IN LOWS INTO THE TEENS...WITH
SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE ACROSS NW MA AND SW NH...WELL BELOW-NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MILDEST READINGS IN THE 20S WILL BE IN
BOS...OUTER CAPE/ISLANDS AND AREAS ADJACENT TO NARRAGANSETT BAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC ALLOWING FOR STRONG MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TO DEVELOP. THE RESPONSE WILL BE AN INCREASE
IN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AS THE DAY WEARS ON...BUT IT WILL
REMAIN DRY GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

DESPITE THE WARM ADVECTION ALOFT...IT WILL TAKE TIME FOR THAT TO BE
COMPLETELY REALIZED AT THE SURFACE. WHILE IT WILL BE MILDER THAN
TODAY...HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S WITH SOME MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S ON THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS. HOWEVER...EXPECTING SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
MPH TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS A BIT STRONGER ALONG
THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL STILL MAKE IT FEEL
RATHER CHILLY OUTSIDE FOR NOVEMBER STANDARDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT.
THERE STILL SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCING TO BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WHILE IT CERTAINLY WILL BE TOO
WARM ALOFT FOR ANY SNOW...THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS WILL IT BE COLD
ENOUGH AT THE SURFACE FOR SOME POCKETS OF SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR. ITS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AND WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED...BUT ITS NOT AN IDEAL SETUP. THERE IS A LOT OF WIND
OFF THE DECK AND PROBABLY ENOUGH TO PREVENT MOST AREAS FROM
DECOUPLING. GIVEN WERE +4C AT 850 MB SOME OF THIS MILDER AIR WILL
BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL LIGHT ICING
THREAT...BUT STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED POCKETS IN THE
DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE UPPER 20S
TO MIDDLE 30S DURING THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD RISE SOME OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - TURNING WARMER AND WET MONDAY
 - A POSSIBLE MIDWEEK STORM...ESPECIALLY FOR SE NEW ENGLAND
 - LOOKING COLDER INTO THANKSGIVING

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

TRENDING +AO/NAO WITH NEAR-NEUTRAL PNA SUGGESTS A MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN AND MILD. NO SURPRISE TO SEE A LACK OF DEEP CLOSED-LOW H5
DISTURBANCES...THOUGH AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH ABUNDANCE OF PACIFIC-
ORIGIN WAVES MAINTAINING TROUGHING BETWEEN SECTORS OF ABOVE-AVERAGE
OCEAN TEMPERATURES OVER THE NE-PACIFIC AND NW-ATLANTIC.

SOME OF THOSE WAVES ARE WELL OUT IN THE PACIFIC AND HAVE NOT EVEN
BEEN SAMPLED. THE WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WINTER-STORM POTENTIAL
FOR THE MIDWEEK / THANKSGIVING PERIOD IS JUST S OF THE FURTHEST E
ALEUTAIN ISLANDS OF ALASKA. NOTING THIS...HAVE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
THROUGH EARLY-NEXT WEEK WITH THE FORECAST...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE FOR A
POTENTIAL MIDWEEK STORM. WILL HIT UP THE DETAILS BELOW.

SO FOR SUNDAY...

CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH DISTURBANCE.
DISSIPATING BENEATH A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE / SUBSIDENCE. BENEATH
THE WARM-SECTOR AND RETURN S-FLOW ROUND THE HIGH PUSHING OFF INTO
THE ATLANTIC...H925 TEMPERATURES NEARLY +10C...MAY SEE HIGHS WARM
WELL INTO THE 50S WITH ANY SUNSHINE.

AS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...

WARM-FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING BROADSCALE LIFT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW
ACROSS THE C-CONUS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION BECOMES THE FOCUS
FOR RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. NON-DIURNAL WARMING TREND OVERNIGHT. ALL-
RAIN EVENT. MAIN CONCERNS ARE WITH BOTH WINDS AND RAIN.

WITH WINDS: STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET CENTERED AROUND MONDAY MORNING WITH
WINDS 1-2 KFT AGL MODEL-CONSENSUS AVERAGING AROUND 50 MPH /45 KTS/.
SUGGESTED BOUNDARY-LAYER DECOUPLING BENEATH MUCH WARMER AIR BETWEEN
H925-85. BUT IF 2M TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER AS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
COULD BE WARMER SUNDAY NIGHT AIDING IN LOW-LEVEL MIXING. ALSO NEED
TO CONSIDER ANY HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD ALSO AID WITH DRAGGING FASTER
MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE. OVERALL: MAIN CONCERN ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND
AND HIGH TERRAIN ABOVE 1 KFT. WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY. CIPS
ANALOG GUIDANCE HAS JUST ABOVE 50-PERCENT FOR WINDS > 35 MPH.

WITH RAIN: BROADSCALE ASCENT OF THE WARM-CONVEYER-BELT WITH PWATS UP
TO 1.5-INCHES AND ANOMALOUS HIGH-THETAE AIR. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET TO THE PARENT WARM-FRONT. EXPECT A BROAD
NW-SE BAND OF RAIN WITH PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED LINE OF HEAVIER RAIN. IT
MOVES THROUGH NOTABLY QUICK. MODEL-CONSENSUS AVERAGE RAIN AMOUNTS
ARE AROUND 0.50 - 0.75 INCHES. AM NOT EXPECTING ANY FLOOD ISSUES.

INTO MONDAY...

RAINS FOR THE MORNING...IMPROVING AFTERNOON. IF WE CLEAR AS H925
TEMPERATURES WARM TO +14C THEN WE COULD POSSIBLY SEE HIGHS INTO THE
MID- TO UPPER-60S /+18C/ POSSIBLY TO NEAR 70. MODEL-CONSENSUS H925
WINDS AVERAGE AROUND 45 MPH /40 KTS/ AND WITH WARMER CONDITIONS
COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXING OUT TO H9 AND MOMENTUM MIX-DOWN.
WILL HINT AT THIS IN THE FORECAST...BUT MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

WILL GO WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS...BUT THE MAIN PUMP OF MOISTURE
SHOULD BE WELL OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE THE MAIN COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO
THE DEEPENING LOW LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION SWEEPS
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. EXPECTING DRY AND COOLER WEATHER FOR TUESDAY...
PERHAPS CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...

JUST TOO EARLY TO SAY. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS VARY
CONSIDERABLY WITH SURFACE LOW CENTERS AROUND THE ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH
KEY UPON A LOW SE OF THE 40N / 70W BENCHMARK AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HAVE CONCERNS FOR SE NEW ENGLAND WHICH COULD SEE THE GREATEST IMPACT
WHILE NOTING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER S-CANADA /WITH THE CENTER
OVER THE C-CONUS/. THE GFS-UPGRADED /T1534/ IS A FAR OUTLIER AND IS
NOT CONSIDERED WITH THIS FORECAST.

EVALUATING SYNOPTICS...THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A COASTAL STORM
BUT MORE OF A WAVE LOW ALONG THE OFFSHORE STALLED FRONT. AS BEEN THE
CASE THIS YEAR...COLD AIR HAS BEEN PLUNGING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
BUT ITS TRUE BITE REMAINS MAINLY N/W OF OUR REGION. DO HAVE SOME
CONFIDENCE THAT THE WAVE LOW WILL HUG CLOSER TO THE COAST. THEN IT
COMES TO BREAKING DOWN TIMING / ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS / THERMAL FIELDS
WHICH RIGHT NOW ARE AGAIN TOO EARLY TO DIAGNOSE. THERE HAS BEEN A
CONSISTENT SIGNAL. STORM BEARS WATCHING.

EXPECTING A RETURN OF ARCTIC AIR BEHIND WHATEVER MIDWEEK SYSTEM THAT
MAY EMERGE. DAY 6-8 CIPS ANALOGS HAVE HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE SE-CONUS INTO THE OHIO-RIVER VALLEY
CENTERED AROUND THE LATE-THANKSGIVING WEEK PERIOD. EC ENSEMBLES AT
H85 HAVE THE FREEZING MARK PLUNGING TO NEARLY THE GULF COAST...WITH
-10C AIR INTO NEW ENGLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

0Z UPDATE...

VFR OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LIGHTS WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH
BREEZY W/NW FLOW ALONG THE SHORES WILL ENHANCE SATURDAY OUT OF THE
SW WITH LIKELY GUSTS 20-30 KTS BY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY UP TO 35
KTS AT TIMES /ESPECIALLY OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS/.

LOW-END VFR SATURDAY NIGHT. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE WITH
ANY -SHRA. ISOLATED POCKETS OF -FZRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
IF ANY ICING IT IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT. WINDS REMAINING AN
ISSUE WITH SW-GUSTS 20-30 KTS...POSSIBLY UP TO 35 KTS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN OF E/SE NEW ENGLAND.

KBOS TERMINAL...WILL HOLD VFR AND KEEP SW-WINDS AROUND 240 BRISK
THROUGHOUT BEGINNING SATURDAY. PERHAPS ISSUES ON 15/33. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY -FZRA AT THE TERMINAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...IF ANY THREAT OF -FZRA ANTICIPATING IMPACTS AROUND
0-6Z SUNDAY /7 PM SATURDAY TO 1 AM SUNDAY/. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INITIAL -SHRA EARLY SUNDAY WITH LOW-END VFR FOLLOWED BY SOME BRIEF
IMPROVEMENT. WINDS TURNING S.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS DETERIORATE MVFR-LIFR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WITH +RA AND STRONG S-WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS POSSIBLE...
OTHERWISE LLWS IMPACTS WITH 50 KT S-WINDS 2 KFT AGL. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE BY MIDDAY...BUT COULD SEE CONTINUED SW-WINDS AROUND 25 KTS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

W-FLOW WITH MAINLY VFR.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ESPECIALLY
TO THE SE-TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

7 PM UPDATE...

WILL ALLOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO DROP ON BOSTON HARBOR AND
NARRAGANSETT BAY...BUT PREVAIL ALL OTHER WATERS TOWARDS SATURDAY
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ALLOWING WINDS TO
GRADUALLY RELAX OUT OF THE W/NW.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES E ALLOWING FOR A FAST-FLOWING RETURN SW-FLOW
OF AIR OVER THE WATERS. COLDER AIR OVER WATER WATERS...EXPECT SW-
GUSTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING GALE FORCE LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE THREAT OF GUSTS OVER THE PERIOD OF
35 KTS. SEAS LIKELY BUILDING 6 TO 9 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE S/SE-WATERS. WILL ALLOW THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT TO
EVALUATE AS TO WHETHER TO GO WITH GALE WARNINGS OR HIGH-END
SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORIES.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS IMPROVING AS SW-WINDS TURN S AND RELAX. WILL SEE WAVE
ACTION DISSIPATE BELOW SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS DETERIORATE INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH RAIN OVER THE WATERS
AND EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS. VISIBILITY IMPACTS POSSIBLE. WINDS
INCREASING OUT OF THE S. GUSTS EXCEEDING GALE FORCE APPEAR LIKELY.
WAVES SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASING TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS TURNING SW REMAINING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KTS.
WAVES MAINTAINED WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE
WATERS YET DETAILS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ232>235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ231-251-
     255-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...FRANK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FRANK/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 212347
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
647 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

AFTER A DRY BUT VERY COLD NIGHT...TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME
SATURDAY ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
SIGNIFICANT WARM UP SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY...BUT WITH A
PERIOD OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. QUIET FOR TUESDAY BUT
CONDITIONS MAY CHANGE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE THREAT OF A STORM
SYSTEM. TURNING COLDER INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

7 PM UPDATE...

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE W ALLOWING WINDS TO
GRADUALLY RELAX OUT OF THE N/NW BENEATH CLEAR CONDITIONS. EXPECT A
NICE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS WINDS
CONTINUE TO DECOUPLE RESULTING IN LOWS INTO THE TEENS...SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS NW MA AND SW NH...WELL BELOW-NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. WARMEST CONDITIONS ALONG THE SHORES AND WITHIN URBAN CENTERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC ALLOWING FOR STRONG MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TO DEVELOP. THE RESPONSE WILL BE AN INCREASE
IN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AS THE DAY WEARS ON...BUT IT WILL
REMAIN DRY GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

DESPITE THE WARM ADVECTION ALOFT...IT WILL TAKE TIME FOR THAT TO BE
COMPLETELY REALIZED AT THE SURFACE. WHILE IT WILL BE MILDER THAN
TODAY...HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S WITH SOME MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S ON THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS. HOWEVER...EXPECTING SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
MPH TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS A BIT STRONGER ALONG
THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL STILL MAKE IT FEEL
RATHER CHILLY OUTSIDE FOR NOVEMBER STANDARDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT.
THERE STILL SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCING TO BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WHILE IT CERTAINLY WILL BE TOO
WARM ALOFT FOR ANY SNOW...THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS WILL IT BE COLD
ENOUGH AT THE SURFACE FOR SOME POCKETS OF SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR. ITS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AND WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED...BUT ITS NOT AN IDEAL SETUP. THERE IS A LOT OF WIND
OFF THE DECK AND PROBABLY ENOUGH TO PREVENT MOST AREAS FROM
DECOUPLING. GIVEN WERE +4C AT 850 MB SOME OF THIS MILDER AIR WILL
BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL LIGHT ICING
THREAT...BUT STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED POCKETS IN THE
DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE UPPER 20S
TO MIDDLE 30S DURING THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD RISE SOME OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - TURNING WARMER AND WET MONDAY
 - A POSSIBLE MIDWEEK STORM...ESPECIALLY FOR SE NEW ENGLAND
 - LOOKING COLDER INTO THANKSGIVING

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

TRENDING +AO/NAO WITH NEAR-NEUTRAL PNA SUGGESTS A MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN AND MILD. NO SURPRISE TO SEE A LACK OF DEEP CLOSED-LOW H5
DISTURBANCES...THOUGH AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH ABUNDANCE OF PACIFIC-
ORIGIN WAVES MAINTAINING TROUGHING BETWEEN SECTORS OF ABOVE-AVERAGE
OCEAN TEMPERATURES OVER THE NE-PACIFIC AND NW-ATLANTIC.

SOME OF THOSE WAVES ARE WELL OUT IN THE PACIFIC AND HAVE NOT EVEN
BEEN SAMPLED. THE WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WINTER-STORM POTENTIAL
FOR THE MIDWEEK / THANKSGIVING PERIOD IS JUST S OF THE FURTHEST E
ALEUTAIN ISLANDS OF ALASKA. NOTING THIS...HAVE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
THROUGH EARLY-NEXT WEEK WITH THE FORECAST...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE FOR A
POTENTIAL MIDWEEK STORM. WILL HIT UP THE DETAILS BELOW.

SO FOR SUNDAY...

CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH DISTURBANCE.
DISSIPATING BENEATH A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE / SUBSIDENCE. BENEATH
THE WARM-SECTOR AND RETURN S-FLOW ROUND THE HIGH PUSHING OFF INTO
THE ATLANTIC...H925 TEMPERATURES NEARLY +10C...MAY SEE HIGHS WARM
WELL INTO THE 50S WITH ANY SUNSHINE.

AS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...

WARM-FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING BROADSCALE LIFT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW
ACROSS THE C-CONUS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION BECOMES THE FOCUS
FOR RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. NON-DIURNAL WARMING TREND OVERNIGHT. ALL-
RAIN EVENT. MAIN CONCERNS ARE WITH BOTH WINDS AND RAIN.

WITH WINDS: STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET CENTERED AROUND MONDAY MORNING WITH
WINDS 1-2 KFT AGL MODEL-CONSENSUS AVERAGING AROUND 50 MPH /45 KTS/.
SUGGESTED BOUNDARY-LAYER DECOUPLING BENEATH MUCH WARMER AIR BETWEEN
H925-85. BUT IF 2M TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER AS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
COULD BE WARMER SUNDAY NIGHT AIDING IN LOW-LEVEL MIXING. ALSO NEED
TO CONSIDER ANY HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD ALSO AID WITH DRAGGING FASTER
MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE. OVERALL: MAIN CONCERN ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND
AND HIGH TERRAIN ABOVE 1 KFT. WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY. CIPS
ANALOG GUIDANCE HAS JUST ABOVE 50-PERCENT FOR WINDS > 35 MPH.

WITH RAIN: BROADSCALE ASCENT OF THE WARM-CONVEYER-BELT WITH PWATS UP
TO 1.5-INCHES AND ANOMALOUS HIGH-THETAE AIR. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET TO THE PARENT WARM-FRONT. EXPECT A BROAD
NW-SE BAND OF RAIN WITH PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED LINE OF HEAVIER RAIN. IT
MOVES THROUGH NOTABLY QUICK. MODEL-CONSENSUS AVERAGE RAIN AMOUNTS
ARE AROUND 0.50 - 0.75 INCHES. AM NOT EXPECTING ANY FLOOD ISSUES.

INTO MONDAY...

RAINS FOR THE MORNING...IMPROVING AFTERNOON. IF WE CLEAR AS H925
TEMPERATURES WARM TO +14C THEN WE COULD POSSIBLY SEE HIGHS INTO THE
MID- TO UPPER-60S /+18C/ POSSIBLY TO NEAR 70. MODEL-CONSENSUS H925
WINDS AVERAGE AROUND 45 MPH /40 KTS/ AND WITH WARMER CONDITIONS
COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXING OUT TO H9 AND MOMENTUM MIX-DOWN.
WILL HINT AT THIS IN THE FORECAST...BUT MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

WILL GO WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS...BUT THE MAIN PUMP OF MOISTURE
SHOULD BE WELL OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE THE MAIN COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO
THE DEEPENING LOW LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION SWEEPS
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. EXPECTING DRY AND COOLER WEATHER FOR TUESDAY...
PERHAPS CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...

JUST TOO EARLY TO SAY. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS VARY
CONSIDERABLY WITH SURFACE LOW CENTERS AROUND THE ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH
KEY UPON A LOW SE OF THE 40N / 70W BENCHMARK AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HAVE CONCERNS FOR SE NEW ENGLAND WHICH COULD SEE THE GREATEST IMPACT
WHILE NOTING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER S-CANADA /WITH THE CENTER
OVER THE C-CONUS/. THE GFS-UPGRADED /T1534/ IS A FAR OUTLIER AND IS
NOT CONSIDERED WITH THIS FORECAST.

EVALUATING SYNOPTICS...THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A COASTAL STORM
BUT MORE OF A WAVE LOW ALONG THE OFFSHORE STALLED FRONT. AS BEEN THE
CASE THIS YEAR...COLD AIR HAS BEEN PLUNGING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
BUT ITS TRUE BITE REMAINS MAINLY N/W OF OUR REGION. DO HAVE SOME
CONFIDENCE THAT THE WAVE LOW WILL HUG CLOSER TO THE COAST. THEN IT
COMES TO BREAKING DOWN TIMING / ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS / THERMAL FIELDS
WHICH RIGHT NOW ARE AGAIN TOO EARLY TO DIAGNOSE. THERE HAS BEEN A
CONSISTENT SIGNAL. STORM BEARS WATCHING.

EXPECTING A RETURN OF ARCTIC AIR BEHIND WHATEVER MIDWEEK SYSTEM THAT
MAY EMERGE. DAY 6-8 CIPS ANALOGS HAVE HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE SE-CONUS INTO THE OHIO-RIVER VALLEY
CENTERED AROUND THE LATE-THANKSGIVING WEEK PERIOD. EC ENSEMBLES AT
H85 HAVE THE FREEZING MARK PLUNGING TO NEARLY THE GULF COAST...WITH
-10C AIR INTO NEW ENGLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

0Z UPDATE...

VFR OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LIGHTS WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH
BREEZY W/NW FLOW ALONG THE SHORES WILL ENHANCE SATURDAY OUT OF THE
SW WITH LIKELY GUSTS 20-30 KTS BY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY UP TO 35
KTS AT TIMES /ESPECIALLY OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS/.

LOW-END VFR SATURDAY NIGHT. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE WITH
ANY -SHRA. ISOLATED POCKETS OF -FZRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
IF ANY ICING IT IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT. WINDS REMAINING AN
ISSUE WITH SW-GUSTS 20-30 KTS...POSSIBLY UP TO 35 KTS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN OF E/SE NEW ENGLAND.

KBOS TERMINAL...WILL HOLD VFR AND KEEP SW-WINDS AROUND 240 BRISK
THROUGHOUT BEGINNING SATURDAY. PERHAPS ISSUES ON 15/33. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY -FZRA AT THE TERMINAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...IF ANY THREAT OF -FZRA ANTICIPATING IMPACTS AROUND
0-6Z SUNDAY /7 PM SATURDAY TO 1 AM SUNDAY/. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INITIAL -SHRA EARLY SUNDAY WITH LOW-END VFR FOLLOWED BY SOME BRIEF
IMPROVEMENT. WINDS TURNING S.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS DETERIORATE MVFR-LIFR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WITH +RA AND STRONG S-WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS POSSIBLE...
OTHERWISE LLWS IMPACTS WITH 50 KT S-WINDS 2 KFT AGL. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE BY MIDDAY...BUT COULD SEE CONTINUED SW-WINDS AROUND 25 KTS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

W-FLOW WITH MAINLY VFR.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ESPECIALLY
TO THE SE-TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

7 PM UPDATE...

WILL ALLOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO DROP ON BOSTON HARBOR AND
NARRAGANSETT BAY...BUT PREVAIL ALL OTHER WATERS TOWARDS SATURDAY
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ALLOWING WINDS TO
GRADUALLY RELAX OUT OF THE W/NW.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES E ALLOWING FOR A FAST-FLOWING RETURN SW-FLOW
OF AIR OVER THE WATERS. COLDER AIR OVER WATER WATERS...EXPECT SW-
GUSTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING GALE FORCE LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE THREAT OF GUSTS OVER THE PERIOD OF
35 KTS. SEAS LIKELY BUILDING 6 TO 9 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE S/SE-WATERS. WILL ALLOW THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT TO
EVALUATE AS TO WHETHER TO GO WITH GALE WARNINGS OR HIGH-END
SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORIES.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS IMPROVING AS SW-WINDS TURN S AND RELAX. WILL SEE WAVE
ACTION DISSIPATE BELOW SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS DETERIORATE INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH RAIN OVER THE WATERS
AND EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS. VISIBILITY IMPACTS POSSIBLE. WINDS
INCREASING OUT OF THE S. GUSTS EXCEEDING GALE FORCE APPEAR LIKELY.
WAVES SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASING TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS TURNING SW REMAINING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KTS.
WAVES MAINTAINED WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE
WATERS YET DETAILS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ232>235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ231-251-
     255-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FRANK/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...FRANK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FRANK/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 212347
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
647 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

AFTER A DRY BUT VERY COLD NIGHT...TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME
SATURDAY ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
SIGNIFICANT WARM UP SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY...BUT WITH A
PERIOD OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. QUIET FOR TUESDAY BUT
CONDITIONS MAY CHANGE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE THREAT OF A STORM
SYSTEM. TURNING COLDER INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

7 PM UPDATE...

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE W ALLOWING WINDS TO
GRADUALLY RELAX OUT OF THE N/NW BENEATH CLEAR CONDITIONS. EXPECT A
NICE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS WINDS
CONTINUE TO DECOUPLE RESULTING IN LOWS INTO THE TEENS...SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS NW MA AND SW NH...WELL BELOW-NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. WARMEST CONDITIONS ALONG THE SHORES AND WITHIN URBAN CENTERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC ALLOWING FOR STRONG MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TO DEVELOP. THE RESPONSE WILL BE AN INCREASE
IN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AS THE DAY WEARS ON...BUT IT WILL
REMAIN DRY GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

DESPITE THE WARM ADVECTION ALOFT...IT WILL TAKE TIME FOR THAT TO BE
COMPLETELY REALIZED AT THE SURFACE. WHILE IT WILL BE MILDER THAN
TODAY...HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S WITH SOME MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S ON THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS. HOWEVER...EXPECTING SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
MPH TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS A BIT STRONGER ALONG
THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL STILL MAKE IT FEEL
RATHER CHILLY OUTSIDE FOR NOVEMBER STANDARDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT.
THERE STILL SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCING TO BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WHILE IT CERTAINLY WILL BE TOO
WARM ALOFT FOR ANY SNOW...THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS WILL IT BE COLD
ENOUGH AT THE SURFACE FOR SOME POCKETS OF SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR. ITS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AND WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED...BUT ITS NOT AN IDEAL SETUP. THERE IS A LOT OF WIND
OFF THE DECK AND PROBABLY ENOUGH TO PREVENT MOST AREAS FROM
DECOUPLING. GIVEN WERE +4C AT 850 MB SOME OF THIS MILDER AIR WILL
BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL LIGHT ICING
THREAT...BUT STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED POCKETS IN THE
DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE UPPER 20S
TO MIDDLE 30S DURING THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD RISE SOME OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - TURNING WARMER AND WET MONDAY
 - A POSSIBLE MIDWEEK STORM...ESPECIALLY FOR SE NEW ENGLAND
 - LOOKING COLDER INTO THANKSGIVING

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

TRENDING +AO/NAO WITH NEAR-NEUTRAL PNA SUGGESTS A MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN AND MILD. NO SURPRISE TO SEE A LACK OF DEEP CLOSED-LOW H5
DISTURBANCES...THOUGH AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH ABUNDANCE OF PACIFIC-
ORIGIN WAVES MAINTAINING TROUGHING BETWEEN SECTORS OF ABOVE-AVERAGE
OCEAN TEMPERATURES OVER THE NE-PACIFIC AND NW-ATLANTIC.

SOME OF THOSE WAVES ARE WELL OUT IN THE PACIFIC AND HAVE NOT EVEN
BEEN SAMPLED. THE WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WINTER-STORM POTENTIAL
FOR THE MIDWEEK / THANKSGIVING PERIOD IS JUST S OF THE FURTHEST E
ALEUTAIN ISLANDS OF ALASKA. NOTING THIS...HAVE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
THROUGH EARLY-NEXT WEEK WITH THE FORECAST...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE FOR A
POTENTIAL MIDWEEK STORM. WILL HIT UP THE DETAILS BELOW.

SO FOR SUNDAY...

CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH DISTURBANCE.
DISSIPATING BENEATH A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE / SUBSIDENCE. BENEATH
THE WARM-SECTOR AND RETURN S-FLOW ROUND THE HIGH PUSHING OFF INTO
THE ATLANTIC...H925 TEMPERATURES NEARLY +10C...MAY SEE HIGHS WARM
WELL INTO THE 50S WITH ANY SUNSHINE.

AS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...

WARM-FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING BROADSCALE LIFT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW
ACROSS THE C-CONUS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION BECOMES THE FOCUS
FOR RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. NON-DIURNAL WARMING TREND OVERNIGHT. ALL-
RAIN EVENT. MAIN CONCERNS ARE WITH BOTH WINDS AND RAIN.

WITH WINDS: STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET CENTERED AROUND MONDAY MORNING WITH
WINDS 1-2 KFT AGL MODEL-CONSENSUS AVERAGING AROUND 50 MPH /45 KTS/.
SUGGESTED BOUNDARY-LAYER DECOUPLING BENEATH MUCH WARMER AIR BETWEEN
H925-85. BUT IF 2M TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER AS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
COULD BE WARMER SUNDAY NIGHT AIDING IN LOW-LEVEL MIXING. ALSO NEED
TO CONSIDER ANY HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD ALSO AID WITH DRAGGING FASTER
MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE. OVERALL: MAIN CONCERN ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND
AND HIGH TERRAIN ABOVE 1 KFT. WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY. CIPS
ANALOG GUIDANCE HAS JUST ABOVE 50-PERCENT FOR WINDS > 35 MPH.

WITH RAIN: BROADSCALE ASCENT OF THE WARM-CONVEYER-BELT WITH PWATS UP
TO 1.5-INCHES AND ANOMALOUS HIGH-THETAE AIR. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET TO THE PARENT WARM-FRONT. EXPECT A BROAD
NW-SE BAND OF RAIN WITH PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED LINE OF HEAVIER RAIN. IT
MOVES THROUGH NOTABLY QUICK. MODEL-CONSENSUS AVERAGE RAIN AMOUNTS
ARE AROUND 0.50 - 0.75 INCHES. AM NOT EXPECTING ANY FLOOD ISSUES.

INTO MONDAY...

RAINS FOR THE MORNING...IMPROVING AFTERNOON. IF WE CLEAR AS H925
TEMPERATURES WARM TO +14C THEN WE COULD POSSIBLY SEE HIGHS INTO THE
MID- TO UPPER-60S /+18C/ POSSIBLY TO NEAR 70. MODEL-CONSENSUS H925
WINDS AVERAGE AROUND 45 MPH /40 KTS/ AND WITH WARMER CONDITIONS
COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXING OUT TO H9 AND MOMENTUM MIX-DOWN.
WILL HINT AT THIS IN THE FORECAST...BUT MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

WILL GO WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS...BUT THE MAIN PUMP OF MOISTURE
SHOULD BE WELL OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE THE MAIN COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO
THE DEEPENING LOW LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION SWEEPS
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. EXPECTING DRY AND COOLER WEATHER FOR TUESDAY...
PERHAPS CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...

JUST TOO EARLY TO SAY. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS VARY
CONSIDERABLY WITH SURFACE LOW CENTERS AROUND THE ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH
KEY UPON A LOW SE OF THE 40N / 70W BENCHMARK AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HAVE CONCERNS FOR SE NEW ENGLAND WHICH COULD SEE THE GREATEST IMPACT
WHILE NOTING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER S-CANADA /WITH THE CENTER
OVER THE C-CONUS/. THE GFS-UPGRADED /T1534/ IS A FAR OUTLIER AND IS
NOT CONSIDERED WITH THIS FORECAST.

EVALUATING SYNOPTICS...THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A COASTAL STORM
BUT MORE OF A WAVE LOW ALONG THE OFFSHORE STALLED FRONT. AS BEEN THE
CASE THIS YEAR...COLD AIR HAS BEEN PLUNGING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
BUT ITS TRUE BITE REMAINS MAINLY N/W OF OUR REGION. DO HAVE SOME
CONFIDENCE THAT THE WAVE LOW WILL HUG CLOSER TO THE COAST. THEN IT
COMES TO BREAKING DOWN TIMING / ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS / THERMAL FIELDS
WHICH RIGHT NOW ARE AGAIN TOO EARLY TO DIAGNOSE. THERE HAS BEEN A
CONSISTENT SIGNAL. STORM BEARS WATCHING.

EXPECTING A RETURN OF ARCTIC AIR BEHIND WHATEVER MIDWEEK SYSTEM THAT
MAY EMERGE. DAY 6-8 CIPS ANALOGS HAVE HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE SE-CONUS INTO THE OHIO-RIVER VALLEY
CENTERED AROUND THE LATE-THANKSGIVING WEEK PERIOD. EC ENSEMBLES AT
H85 HAVE THE FREEZING MARK PLUNGING TO NEARLY THE GULF COAST...WITH
-10C AIR INTO NEW ENGLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

0Z UPDATE...

VFR OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LIGHTS WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH
BREEZY W/NW FLOW ALONG THE SHORES WILL ENHANCE SATURDAY OUT OF THE
SW WITH LIKELY GUSTS 20-30 KTS BY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY UP TO 35
KTS AT TIMES /ESPECIALLY OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS/.

LOW-END VFR SATURDAY NIGHT. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE WITH
ANY -SHRA. ISOLATED POCKETS OF -FZRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
IF ANY ICING IT IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT. WINDS REMAINING AN
ISSUE WITH SW-GUSTS 20-30 KTS...POSSIBLY UP TO 35 KTS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN OF E/SE NEW ENGLAND.

KBOS TERMINAL...WILL HOLD VFR AND KEEP SW-WINDS AROUND 240 BRISK
THROUGHOUT BEGINNING SATURDAY. PERHAPS ISSUES ON 15/33. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY -FZRA AT THE TERMINAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...IF ANY THREAT OF -FZRA ANTICIPATING IMPACTS AROUND
0-6Z SUNDAY /7 PM SATURDAY TO 1 AM SUNDAY/. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INITIAL -SHRA EARLY SUNDAY WITH LOW-END VFR FOLLOWED BY SOME BRIEF
IMPROVEMENT. WINDS TURNING S.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS DETERIORATE MVFR-LIFR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WITH +RA AND STRONG S-WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS POSSIBLE...
OTHERWISE LLWS IMPACTS WITH 50 KT S-WINDS 2 KFT AGL. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE BY MIDDAY...BUT COULD SEE CONTINUED SW-WINDS AROUND 25 KTS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

W-FLOW WITH MAINLY VFR.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ESPECIALLY
TO THE SE-TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

7 PM UPDATE...

WILL ALLOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO DROP ON BOSTON HARBOR AND
NARRAGANSETT BAY...BUT PREVAIL ALL OTHER WATERS TOWARDS SATURDAY
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ALLOWING WINDS TO
GRADUALLY RELAX OUT OF THE W/NW.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES E ALLOWING FOR A FAST-FLOWING RETURN SW-FLOW
OF AIR OVER THE WATERS. COLDER AIR OVER WATER WATERS...EXPECT SW-
GUSTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING GALE FORCE LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE THREAT OF GUSTS OVER THE PERIOD OF
35 KTS. SEAS LIKELY BUILDING 6 TO 9 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE S/SE-WATERS. WILL ALLOW THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT TO
EVALUATE AS TO WHETHER TO GO WITH GALE WARNINGS OR HIGH-END
SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORIES.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS IMPROVING AS SW-WINDS TURN S AND RELAX. WILL SEE WAVE
ACTION DISSIPATE BELOW SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS DETERIORATE INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH RAIN OVER THE WATERS
AND EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS. VISIBILITY IMPACTS POSSIBLE. WINDS
INCREASING OUT OF THE S. GUSTS EXCEEDING GALE FORCE APPEAR LIKELY.
WAVES SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASING TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS TURNING SW REMAINING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KTS.
WAVES MAINTAINED WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE
WATERS YET DETAILS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ232>235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ231-251-
     255-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FRANK/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...FRANK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FRANK/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 212020
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
319 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

AFTER A DRY BUT VERY COLD NIGHT...TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME
SATURDAY ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.  THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
SIGNIFICANT WARM UP SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY...BUT WITH A PERIOD
OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  QUIET FOR TUESDAY BUT CONDITIONS
MAY CHANGE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE THREAT OF A STORM SYSTEM. TURNING
COLDER INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

315 PM UPDATE...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT ALONG WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  THE EXCEPTION TO THAT WILL BE THE OUTER-
CAPE...WHERE SOME OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS MAY AFFECT THE REGION AT
TIMES.  OTHERWISE...GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...SHOULD BE A
NICE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING ONCE WINDS DECOUPLE.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

LOW TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT AROUND 10 DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST NH/NORTHWEST MA...TO MAINLY THE TEENS ELSEWHERE.  THE
URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF DOWNTOWN BOSTON/PROVIDENCE WILL BE THE MILD
SPOTS...WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20 TO 25 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC ALLOWING FOR STRONG MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TO DEVELOP.  THE RESPONSE WILL BE AN INCREASE
IN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AS THE DAY WEARS ON...BUT IT WILL
REMAIN DRY GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

DESPITE THE WARM ADVECTION ALOFT...IT WILL TAKE TIME FOR THAT TO BE
COMPLETELY REALIZED AT THE SURFACE.  WHILE IT WILL BE MILDER THAN
TODAY...HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S WITH SOME MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S ON THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS.  HOWEVER...EXPECTING SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS A BIT STRONGER ALONG THE FAR
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  THIS WILL STILL MAKE IT FEEL RATHER
CHILLY OUTSIDE FOR NOVEMBER STANDARDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT.
THERE STILL SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCING TO BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIPITATION.  WHILE IT CERTAINLY WILL BE TOO WARM
ALOFT FOR ANY SNOW...THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS WILL IT BE COLD ENOUGH
AT THE SURFACE FOR SOME POCKETS OF SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
THE INTERIOR.  ITS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AND WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...BUT ITS NOT AN IDEAL SETUP.  THERE IS A LOT OF WIND OFF
THE DECK  AND PROBABLY ENOUGH TO PREVENT MOST AREAS FROM DECOUPLING.
 GIVEN WERE +4C AT 850 MB SOME OF THIS MILDER AIR WILL BE ABLE TO
MIX DOWN. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL LIGHT ICING THREAT...BUT
STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED POCKETS IN THE DEEPER VALLEY
LOCATIONS.  LOW TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S
DURING THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD RISE SOME OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

- TURNING WARMER AND WET MONDAY
- A POSSIBLE MIDWEEK STORM...ESPECIALLY FOR SE NEW ENGLAND
- LOOKING COLDER INTO THANKSGIVING

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

TRENDING +AO/NAO WITH NEAR-NEUTRAL PNA SUGGESTS A MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN AND MILD. NO SURPRISE TO SEE A LACK OF DEEP CLOSED-LOW H5
DISTURBANCES...THOUGH AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH ABUNDANCE OF PACIFIC-
ORIGIN WAVES MAINTAINING TROUGHING BETWEEN SECTORS OF ABOVE-AVERAGE
OCEAN TEMPERATURES OVER THE NE-PACIFIC AND NW-ATLANTIC.

SOME OF THOSE WAVES ARE WELL OUT IN THE PACIFIC AND HAVE NOT EVEN
BEEN SAMPLED. THE WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WINTER-STORM POTENTIAL
FOR THE MIDWEEK / THANKSGIVING PERIOD IS JUST S OF THE FURTHEST E
ALEUTAIN ISLANDS OF ALASKA. NOTING THIS...HAVE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
THROUGH EARLY-NEXT WEEK WITH THE FORECAST...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE FOR A
POTENTIAL MIDWEEK STORM. WILL HIT UP THE DETAILS BELOW.

SO FOR SUNDAY...

CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH DISTURBANCE.
DISSIPATING BENEATH A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE / SUBSIDENCE. BENEATH
THE WARM-SECTOR AND RETURN S-FLOW ROUND THE HIGH PUSHING OFF INTO
THE ATLANTIC...H925 TEMPERATURES NEARLY +10C...MAY SEE HIGHS WARM
WELL INTO THE 50S WITH ANY SUNSHINE.

AS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...

WARM-FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING BROADSCALE LIFT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW
ACROSS THE C-CONUS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION BECOMES THE FOCUS
FOR RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. NON-DIURNAL WARMING TREND OVERNIGHT. ALL-
RAIN EVENT. MAIN CONCERNS ARE WITH BOTH WINDS AND RAIN.

WITH WINDS: STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET CENTERED AROUND MONDAY MORNING WITH
WINDS 1-2 KFT AGL MODEL-CONSENSUS AVERAGING AROUND 50 MPH /45 KTS/.
SUGGESTED BOUNDARY-LAYER DECOUPLING BENEATH MUCH WARMER AIR BETWEEN
H925-85. BUT IF 2M TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER AS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
COULD BE WARMER SUNDAY NIGHT AIDING IN LOW-LEVEL MIXING. ALSO NEED
TO CONSIDER ANY HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD ALSO AID WITH DRAGGING FASTER
MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE. OVERALL: MAIN CONCERN ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND
AND HIGH TERRAIN ABOVE 1 KFT. WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY. CIPS
ANALOG GUIDANCE HAS JUST ABOVE 50-PERCENT FOR WINDS > 35 MPH.

WITH RAIN: BROADSCALE ASCENT OF THE WARM-CONVEYER-BELT WITH PWATS UP
TO 1.5-INCHES AND ANOMALOUS HIGH-THETAE AIR. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET TO THE PARENT WARM-FRONT. EXPECT A BROAD
NW-SE BAND OF RAIN WITH PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED LINE OF HEAVIER RAIN. IT
MOVES THROUGH NOTABLY QUICK. MODEL-CONSENSUS AVERAGE RAIN AMOUNTS
ARE AROUND 0.50 - 0.75 INCHES. AM NOT EXPECTING ANY FLOOD ISSUES.

INTO MONDAY...

RAINS FOR THE MORNING...IMPROVING AFTERNOON. IF WE CLEAR AS H925
TEMPERATURES WARM TO +14C THEN WE COULD POSSIBLY SEE HIGHS INTO THE
MID- TO UPPER-60S /+18C/ POSSIBLY TO NEAR 70. MODEL-CONSENSUS H925
WINDS AVERAGE AROUND 45 MPH /40 KTS/ AND WITH WARMER CONDITIONS
COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXING OUT TO H9 AND MOMENTUM MIX-DOWN.
WILL HINT AT THIS IN THE FORECAST...BUT MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

WILL GO WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS...BUT THE MAIN PUMP OF MOISTURE
SHOULD BE WELL OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE THE MAIN COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO
THE DEEPENING LOW LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION SWEEPS
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. EXPECTING DRY AND COOLER WEATHER FOR TUESDAY...
PERHAPS CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...

JUST TOO EARLY TO SAY. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS VARY
CONSIDERABLY WITH SURFACE LOW CENTERS AROUND THE ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH
KEY UPON A LOW SE OF THE 40N / 70W BENCHMARK AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HAVE CONCERNS FOR SE NEW ENGLAND WHICH COULD SEE THE GREATEST IMPACT
WHILE NOTING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER S-CANADA /WITH THE CENTER
OVER THE C-CONUS/. THE GFS-UPGRADED /T1534/ IS A FAR OUTLIER AND IS
NOT CONSIDERED WITH THIS FORECAST.

EVALUATING SYNOPTICS...THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A COASTAL STORM
BUT MORE OF A WAVE LOW ALONG THE OFFSHORE STALLED FRONT. AS BEEN THE
CASE THIS YEAR...COLD AIR HAS BEEN PLUNGING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
BUT ITS TRUE BITE REMAINS MAINLY N/W OF OUR REGION. DO HAVE SOME
CONFIDENCE THAT THE WAVE LOW WILL HUG CLOSER TO THE COAST. THEN IT
COMES TO BREAKING DOWN TIMING / ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS / THERMAL FIELDS
WHICH RIGHT NOW ARE AGAIN TOO EARLY TO DIAGNOSE. THERE HAS BEEN A
CONSISTENT SIGNAL. STORM BEARS WATCHING.

EXPECTING A RETURN OF ARCTIC AIR BEHIND WHATEVER MIDWEEK SYSTEM THAT
MAY EMERGE. DAY 6-8 CIPS ANALOGS HAVE HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE SE-CONUS INTO THE OHIO-RIVER VALLEY
CENTERED AROUND THE LATE-THANKSGIVING WEEK PERIOD. EC ENSEMBLES AT
H85 HAVE THE FREEZING MARK PLUNGING TO NEARLY THE GULF COAST...WITH
-10C AIR INTO NEW ENGLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

315 PM UPDATE...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WIND.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR.  SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
KNOTS DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON...PERHAPS UP TO 35 KNOTS BY EARLY EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  HOWEVER...A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN A FEW BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS.
ISOLATED POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR.  SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS
CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE EVENING...PERHAPS UP TO 35
KNOTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INITIAL -SHRA EARLY SUNDAY WITH LOW-END VFR FOLLOWED BY SOME BRIEF
IMPROVEMENT. WINDS TURNING S.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS DETERIORATE MVFR-LIFR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WITH +RA AND STRONG S-WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS POSSIBLE...
OTHERWISE LLWS IMPACTS WITH 50 KT S-WINDS 2 KFT AGL. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE BY MIDDAY...BUT COULD SEE CONTINUED SW-WINDS AROUND 25 KTS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

W-FLOW WITH MAINLY VFR.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ESPECIALLY
TO THE SE-TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWEST SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.  THIS A RESULT OF A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...DECREASING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC ON SAT ALLOWING FOR A RETURN
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AIR OVER THE WATERS.  THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD WEST
TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET AND GIVEN THE AIRMASS IS STILL RELATIVELY
COLD EXPECT DECENT MIXING OVER THE OCEAN.  THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED A
GALE WATCH FOR MOST OF OUR OPEN WATERS FROM MID AFTERNOON SAT INTO
SAT NIGHT.  THERE IS ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD
OF 35 KNOT WIND GUSTS.  SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO BETWEEN 6 AND 9
FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.  THE NEXT SHIFT CAN EITHER UPGRADE
TO STRONG SMALL CRAFTS OR LOW END GALE WARNINGS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS IMPROVING AS SW-WINDS TURN S AND RELAX. WILL SEE WAVE
ACTION DISSIPATE BELOW SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS DETERIORATE INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH RAIN OVER THE WATERS
AND EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS. VISIBILITY IMPACTS POSSIBLE. WINDS
INCREASING OUT OF THE S. GUSTS EXCEEDING GALE FORCE APPEAR LIKELY.
WAVES SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASING TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS TURNING SW REMAINING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KTS.
WAVES MAINTAINED WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE
WATERS YET DETAILS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ232>235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ231-251-
     255-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...FRANK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FRANK/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 212020
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
319 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

AFTER A DRY BUT VERY COLD NIGHT...TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME
SATURDAY ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.  THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
SIGNIFICANT WARM UP SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY...BUT WITH A PERIOD
OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  QUIET FOR TUESDAY BUT CONDITIONS
MAY CHANGE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE THREAT OF A STORM SYSTEM. TURNING
COLDER INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

315 PM UPDATE...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT ALONG WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  THE EXCEPTION TO THAT WILL BE THE OUTER-
CAPE...WHERE SOME OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS MAY AFFECT THE REGION AT
TIMES.  OTHERWISE...GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...SHOULD BE A
NICE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING ONCE WINDS DECOUPLE.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

LOW TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT AROUND 10 DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST NH/NORTHWEST MA...TO MAINLY THE TEENS ELSEWHERE.  THE
URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF DOWNTOWN BOSTON/PROVIDENCE WILL BE THE MILD
SPOTS...WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20 TO 25 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC ALLOWING FOR STRONG MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TO DEVELOP.  THE RESPONSE WILL BE AN INCREASE
IN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AS THE DAY WEARS ON...BUT IT WILL
REMAIN DRY GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

DESPITE THE WARM ADVECTION ALOFT...IT WILL TAKE TIME FOR THAT TO BE
COMPLETELY REALIZED AT THE SURFACE.  WHILE IT WILL BE MILDER THAN
TODAY...HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S WITH SOME MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S ON THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS.  HOWEVER...EXPECTING SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS A BIT STRONGER ALONG THE FAR
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  THIS WILL STILL MAKE IT FEEL RATHER
CHILLY OUTSIDE FOR NOVEMBER STANDARDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT.
THERE STILL SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCING TO BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIPITATION.  WHILE IT CERTAINLY WILL BE TOO WARM
ALOFT FOR ANY SNOW...THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS WILL IT BE COLD ENOUGH
AT THE SURFACE FOR SOME POCKETS OF SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
THE INTERIOR.  ITS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AND WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...BUT ITS NOT AN IDEAL SETUP.  THERE IS A LOT OF WIND OFF
THE DECK  AND PROBABLY ENOUGH TO PREVENT MOST AREAS FROM DECOUPLING.
 GIVEN WERE +4C AT 850 MB SOME OF THIS MILDER AIR WILL BE ABLE TO
MIX DOWN. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL LIGHT ICING THREAT...BUT
STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED POCKETS IN THE DEEPER VALLEY
LOCATIONS.  LOW TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S
DURING THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD RISE SOME OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

- TURNING WARMER AND WET MONDAY
- A POSSIBLE MIDWEEK STORM...ESPECIALLY FOR SE NEW ENGLAND
- LOOKING COLDER INTO THANKSGIVING

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

TRENDING +AO/NAO WITH NEAR-NEUTRAL PNA SUGGESTS A MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN AND MILD. NO SURPRISE TO SEE A LACK OF DEEP CLOSED-LOW H5
DISTURBANCES...THOUGH AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH ABUNDANCE OF PACIFIC-
ORIGIN WAVES MAINTAINING TROUGHING BETWEEN SECTORS OF ABOVE-AVERAGE
OCEAN TEMPERATURES OVER THE NE-PACIFIC AND NW-ATLANTIC.

SOME OF THOSE WAVES ARE WELL OUT IN THE PACIFIC AND HAVE NOT EVEN
BEEN SAMPLED. THE WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WINTER-STORM POTENTIAL
FOR THE MIDWEEK / THANKSGIVING PERIOD IS JUST S OF THE FURTHEST E
ALEUTAIN ISLANDS OF ALASKA. NOTING THIS...HAVE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
THROUGH EARLY-NEXT WEEK WITH THE FORECAST...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE FOR A
POTENTIAL MIDWEEK STORM. WILL HIT UP THE DETAILS BELOW.

SO FOR SUNDAY...

CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH DISTURBANCE.
DISSIPATING BENEATH A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE / SUBSIDENCE. BENEATH
THE WARM-SECTOR AND RETURN S-FLOW ROUND THE HIGH PUSHING OFF INTO
THE ATLANTIC...H925 TEMPERATURES NEARLY +10C...MAY SEE HIGHS WARM
WELL INTO THE 50S WITH ANY SUNSHINE.

AS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...

WARM-FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING BROADSCALE LIFT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW
ACROSS THE C-CONUS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION BECOMES THE FOCUS
FOR RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. NON-DIURNAL WARMING TREND OVERNIGHT. ALL-
RAIN EVENT. MAIN CONCERNS ARE WITH BOTH WINDS AND RAIN.

WITH WINDS: STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET CENTERED AROUND MONDAY MORNING WITH
WINDS 1-2 KFT AGL MODEL-CONSENSUS AVERAGING AROUND 50 MPH /45 KTS/.
SUGGESTED BOUNDARY-LAYER DECOUPLING BENEATH MUCH WARMER AIR BETWEEN
H925-85. BUT IF 2M TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER AS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
COULD BE WARMER SUNDAY NIGHT AIDING IN LOW-LEVEL MIXING. ALSO NEED
TO CONSIDER ANY HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD ALSO AID WITH DRAGGING FASTER
MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE. OVERALL: MAIN CONCERN ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND
AND HIGH TERRAIN ABOVE 1 KFT. WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY. CIPS
ANALOG GUIDANCE HAS JUST ABOVE 50-PERCENT FOR WINDS > 35 MPH.

WITH RAIN: BROADSCALE ASCENT OF THE WARM-CONVEYER-BELT WITH PWATS UP
TO 1.5-INCHES AND ANOMALOUS HIGH-THETAE AIR. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET TO THE PARENT WARM-FRONT. EXPECT A BROAD
NW-SE BAND OF RAIN WITH PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED LINE OF HEAVIER RAIN. IT
MOVES THROUGH NOTABLY QUICK. MODEL-CONSENSUS AVERAGE RAIN AMOUNTS
ARE AROUND 0.50 - 0.75 INCHES. AM NOT EXPECTING ANY FLOOD ISSUES.

INTO MONDAY...

RAINS FOR THE MORNING...IMPROVING AFTERNOON. IF WE CLEAR AS H925
TEMPERATURES WARM TO +14C THEN WE COULD POSSIBLY SEE HIGHS INTO THE
MID- TO UPPER-60S /+18C/ POSSIBLY TO NEAR 70. MODEL-CONSENSUS H925
WINDS AVERAGE AROUND 45 MPH /40 KTS/ AND WITH WARMER CONDITIONS
COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXING OUT TO H9 AND MOMENTUM MIX-DOWN.
WILL HINT AT THIS IN THE FORECAST...BUT MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

WILL GO WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS...BUT THE MAIN PUMP OF MOISTURE
SHOULD BE WELL OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE THE MAIN COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO
THE DEEPENING LOW LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION SWEEPS
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. EXPECTING DRY AND COOLER WEATHER FOR TUESDAY...
PERHAPS CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...

JUST TOO EARLY TO SAY. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS VARY
CONSIDERABLY WITH SURFACE LOW CENTERS AROUND THE ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH
KEY UPON A LOW SE OF THE 40N / 70W BENCHMARK AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HAVE CONCERNS FOR SE NEW ENGLAND WHICH COULD SEE THE GREATEST IMPACT
WHILE NOTING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER S-CANADA /WITH THE CENTER
OVER THE C-CONUS/. THE GFS-UPGRADED /T1534/ IS A FAR OUTLIER AND IS
NOT CONSIDERED WITH THIS FORECAST.

EVALUATING SYNOPTICS...THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A COASTAL STORM
BUT MORE OF A WAVE LOW ALONG THE OFFSHORE STALLED FRONT. AS BEEN THE
CASE THIS YEAR...COLD AIR HAS BEEN PLUNGING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
BUT ITS TRUE BITE REMAINS MAINLY N/W OF OUR REGION. DO HAVE SOME
CONFIDENCE THAT THE WAVE LOW WILL HUG CLOSER TO THE COAST. THEN IT
COMES TO BREAKING DOWN TIMING / ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS / THERMAL FIELDS
WHICH RIGHT NOW ARE AGAIN TOO EARLY TO DIAGNOSE. THERE HAS BEEN A
CONSISTENT SIGNAL. STORM BEARS WATCHING.

EXPECTING A RETURN OF ARCTIC AIR BEHIND WHATEVER MIDWEEK SYSTEM THAT
MAY EMERGE. DAY 6-8 CIPS ANALOGS HAVE HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE SE-CONUS INTO THE OHIO-RIVER VALLEY
CENTERED AROUND THE LATE-THANKSGIVING WEEK PERIOD. EC ENSEMBLES AT
H85 HAVE THE FREEZING MARK PLUNGING TO NEARLY THE GULF COAST...WITH
-10C AIR INTO NEW ENGLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

315 PM UPDATE...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WIND.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR.  SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
KNOTS DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON...PERHAPS UP TO 35 KNOTS BY EARLY EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  HOWEVER...A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN A FEW BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS.
ISOLATED POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR.  SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS
CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE EVENING...PERHAPS UP TO 35
KNOTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INITIAL -SHRA EARLY SUNDAY WITH LOW-END VFR FOLLOWED BY SOME BRIEF
IMPROVEMENT. WINDS TURNING S.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS DETERIORATE MVFR-LIFR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WITH +RA AND STRONG S-WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS POSSIBLE...
OTHERWISE LLWS IMPACTS WITH 50 KT S-WINDS 2 KFT AGL. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE BY MIDDAY...BUT COULD SEE CONTINUED SW-WINDS AROUND 25 KTS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

W-FLOW WITH MAINLY VFR.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ESPECIALLY
TO THE SE-TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWEST SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.  THIS A RESULT OF A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...DECREASING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC ON SAT ALLOWING FOR A RETURN
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AIR OVER THE WATERS.  THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD WEST
TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET AND GIVEN THE AIRMASS IS STILL RELATIVELY
COLD EXPECT DECENT MIXING OVER THE OCEAN.  THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED A
GALE WATCH FOR MOST OF OUR OPEN WATERS FROM MID AFTERNOON SAT INTO
SAT NIGHT.  THERE IS ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD
OF 35 KNOT WIND GUSTS.  SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO BETWEEN 6 AND 9
FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.  THE NEXT SHIFT CAN EITHER UPGRADE
TO STRONG SMALL CRAFTS OR LOW END GALE WARNINGS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS IMPROVING AS SW-WINDS TURN S AND RELAX. WILL SEE WAVE
ACTION DISSIPATE BELOW SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS DETERIORATE INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH RAIN OVER THE WATERS
AND EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS. VISIBILITY IMPACTS POSSIBLE. WINDS
INCREASING OUT OF THE S. GUSTS EXCEEDING GALE FORCE APPEAR LIKELY.
WAVES SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASING TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS TURNING SW REMAINING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KTS.
WAVES MAINTAINED WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE
WATERS YET DETAILS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ232>235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ231-251-
     255-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...FRANK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FRANK/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 212020
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
319 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

AFTER A DRY BUT VERY COLD NIGHT...TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME
SATURDAY ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.  THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
SIGNIFICANT WARM UP SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY...BUT WITH A PERIOD
OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  QUIET FOR TUESDAY BUT CONDITIONS
MAY CHANGE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE THREAT OF A STORM SYSTEM. TURNING
COLDER INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

315 PM UPDATE...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT ALONG WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  THE EXCEPTION TO THAT WILL BE THE OUTER-
CAPE...WHERE SOME OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS MAY AFFECT THE REGION AT
TIMES.  OTHERWISE...GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...SHOULD BE A
NICE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING ONCE WINDS DECOUPLE.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

LOW TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT AROUND 10 DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST NH/NORTHWEST MA...TO MAINLY THE TEENS ELSEWHERE.  THE
URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF DOWNTOWN BOSTON/PROVIDENCE WILL BE THE MILD
SPOTS...WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20 TO 25 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC ALLOWING FOR STRONG MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TO DEVELOP.  THE RESPONSE WILL BE AN INCREASE
IN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AS THE DAY WEARS ON...BUT IT WILL
REMAIN DRY GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

DESPITE THE WARM ADVECTION ALOFT...IT WILL TAKE TIME FOR THAT TO BE
COMPLETELY REALIZED AT THE SURFACE.  WHILE IT WILL BE MILDER THAN
TODAY...HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S WITH SOME MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S ON THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS.  HOWEVER...EXPECTING SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS A BIT STRONGER ALONG THE FAR
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  THIS WILL STILL MAKE IT FEEL RATHER
CHILLY OUTSIDE FOR NOVEMBER STANDARDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT.
THERE STILL SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCING TO BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIPITATION.  WHILE IT CERTAINLY WILL BE TOO WARM
ALOFT FOR ANY SNOW...THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS WILL IT BE COLD ENOUGH
AT THE SURFACE FOR SOME POCKETS OF SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
THE INTERIOR.  ITS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AND WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...BUT ITS NOT AN IDEAL SETUP.  THERE IS A LOT OF WIND OFF
THE DECK  AND PROBABLY ENOUGH TO PREVENT MOST AREAS FROM DECOUPLING.
 GIVEN WERE +4C AT 850 MB SOME OF THIS MILDER AIR WILL BE ABLE TO
MIX DOWN. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL LIGHT ICING THREAT...BUT
STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED POCKETS IN THE DEEPER VALLEY
LOCATIONS.  LOW TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S
DURING THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD RISE SOME OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

- TURNING WARMER AND WET MONDAY
- A POSSIBLE MIDWEEK STORM...ESPECIALLY FOR SE NEW ENGLAND
- LOOKING COLDER INTO THANKSGIVING

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

TRENDING +AO/NAO WITH NEAR-NEUTRAL PNA SUGGESTS A MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN AND MILD. NO SURPRISE TO SEE A LACK OF DEEP CLOSED-LOW H5
DISTURBANCES...THOUGH AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH ABUNDANCE OF PACIFIC-
ORIGIN WAVES MAINTAINING TROUGHING BETWEEN SECTORS OF ABOVE-AVERAGE
OCEAN TEMPERATURES OVER THE NE-PACIFIC AND NW-ATLANTIC.

SOME OF THOSE WAVES ARE WELL OUT IN THE PACIFIC AND HAVE NOT EVEN
BEEN SAMPLED. THE WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WINTER-STORM POTENTIAL
FOR THE MIDWEEK / THANKSGIVING PERIOD IS JUST S OF THE FURTHEST E
ALEUTAIN ISLANDS OF ALASKA. NOTING THIS...HAVE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
THROUGH EARLY-NEXT WEEK WITH THE FORECAST...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE FOR A
POTENTIAL MIDWEEK STORM. WILL HIT UP THE DETAILS BELOW.

SO FOR SUNDAY...

CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH DISTURBANCE.
DISSIPATING BENEATH A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE / SUBSIDENCE. BENEATH
THE WARM-SECTOR AND RETURN S-FLOW ROUND THE HIGH PUSHING OFF INTO
THE ATLANTIC...H925 TEMPERATURES NEARLY +10C...MAY SEE HIGHS WARM
WELL INTO THE 50S WITH ANY SUNSHINE.

AS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...

WARM-FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING BROADSCALE LIFT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW
ACROSS THE C-CONUS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION BECOMES THE FOCUS
FOR RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. NON-DIURNAL WARMING TREND OVERNIGHT. ALL-
RAIN EVENT. MAIN CONCERNS ARE WITH BOTH WINDS AND RAIN.

WITH WINDS: STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET CENTERED AROUND MONDAY MORNING WITH
WINDS 1-2 KFT AGL MODEL-CONSENSUS AVERAGING AROUND 50 MPH /45 KTS/.
SUGGESTED BOUNDARY-LAYER DECOUPLING BENEATH MUCH WARMER AIR BETWEEN
H925-85. BUT IF 2M TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER AS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
COULD BE WARMER SUNDAY NIGHT AIDING IN LOW-LEVEL MIXING. ALSO NEED
TO CONSIDER ANY HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD ALSO AID WITH DRAGGING FASTER
MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE. OVERALL: MAIN CONCERN ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND
AND HIGH TERRAIN ABOVE 1 KFT. WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY. CIPS
ANALOG GUIDANCE HAS JUST ABOVE 50-PERCENT FOR WINDS > 35 MPH.

WITH RAIN: BROADSCALE ASCENT OF THE WARM-CONVEYER-BELT WITH PWATS UP
TO 1.5-INCHES AND ANOMALOUS HIGH-THETAE AIR. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET TO THE PARENT WARM-FRONT. EXPECT A BROAD
NW-SE BAND OF RAIN WITH PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED LINE OF HEAVIER RAIN. IT
MOVES THROUGH NOTABLY QUICK. MODEL-CONSENSUS AVERAGE RAIN AMOUNTS
ARE AROUND 0.50 - 0.75 INCHES. AM NOT EXPECTING ANY FLOOD ISSUES.

INTO MONDAY...

RAINS FOR THE MORNING...IMPROVING AFTERNOON. IF WE CLEAR AS H925
TEMPERATURES WARM TO +14C THEN WE COULD POSSIBLY SEE HIGHS INTO THE
MID- TO UPPER-60S /+18C/ POSSIBLY TO NEAR 70. MODEL-CONSENSUS H925
WINDS AVERAGE AROUND 45 MPH /40 KTS/ AND WITH WARMER CONDITIONS
COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXING OUT TO H9 AND MOMENTUM MIX-DOWN.
WILL HINT AT THIS IN THE FORECAST...BUT MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

WILL GO WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS...BUT THE MAIN PUMP OF MOISTURE
SHOULD BE WELL OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE THE MAIN COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO
THE DEEPENING LOW LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION SWEEPS
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. EXPECTING DRY AND COOLER WEATHER FOR TUESDAY...
PERHAPS CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...

JUST TOO EARLY TO SAY. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS VARY
CONSIDERABLY WITH SURFACE LOW CENTERS AROUND THE ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH
KEY UPON A LOW SE OF THE 40N / 70W BENCHMARK AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HAVE CONCERNS FOR SE NEW ENGLAND WHICH COULD SEE THE GREATEST IMPACT
WHILE NOTING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER S-CANADA /WITH THE CENTER
OVER THE C-CONUS/. THE GFS-UPGRADED /T1534/ IS A FAR OUTLIER AND IS
NOT CONSIDERED WITH THIS FORECAST.

EVALUATING SYNOPTICS...THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A COASTAL STORM
BUT MORE OF A WAVE LOW ALONG THE OFFSHORE STALLED FRONT. AS BEEN THE
CASE THIS YEAR...COLD AIR HAS BEEN PLUNGING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
BUT ITS TRUE BITE REMAINS MAINLY N/W OF OUR REGION. DO HAVE SOME
CONFIDENCE THAT THE WAVE LOW WILL HUG CLOSER TO THE COAST. THEN IT
COMES TO BREAKING DOWN TIMING / ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS / THERMAL FIELDS
WHICH RIGHT NOW ARE AGAIN TOO EARLY TO DIAGNOSE. THERE HAS BEEN A
CONSISTENT SIGNAL. STORM BEARS WATCHING.

EXPECTING A RETURN OF ARCTIC AIR BEHIND WHATEVER MIDWEEK SYSTEM THAT
MAY EMERGE. DAY 6-8 CIPS ANALOGS HAVE HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE SE-CONUS INTO THE OHIO-RIVER VALLEY
CENTERED AROUND THE LATE-THANKSGIVING WEEK PERIOD. EC ENSEMBLES AT
H85 HAVE THE FREEZING MARK PLUNGING TO NEARLY THE GULF COAST...WITH
-10C AIR INTO NEW ENGLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

315 PM UPDATE...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WIND.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR.  SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
KNOTS DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON...PERHAPS UP TO 35 KNOTS BY EARLY EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  HOWEVER...A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN A FEW BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS.
ISOLATED POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR.  SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS
CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE EVENING...PERHAPS UP TO 35
KNOTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INITIAL -SHRA EARLY SUNDAY WITH LOW-END VFR FOLLOWED BY SOME BRIEF
IMPROVEMENT. WINDS TURNING S.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS DETERIORATE MVFR-LIFR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WITH +RA AND STRONG S-WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS POSSIBLE...
OTHERWISE LLWS IMPACTS WITH 50 KT S-WINDS 2 KFT AGL. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE BY MIDDAY...BUT COULD SEE CONTINUED SW-WINDS AROUND 25 KTS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

W-FLOW WITH MAINLY VFR.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ESPECIALLY
TO THE SE-TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWEST SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.  THIS A RESULT OF A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...DECREASING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC ON SAT ALLOWING FOR A RETURN
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AIR OVER THE WATERS.  THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD WEST
TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET AND GIVEN THE AIRMASS IS STILL RELATIVELY
COLD EXPECT DECENT MIXING OVER THE OCEAN.  THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED A
GALE WATCH FOR MOST OF OUR OPEN WATERS FROM MID AFTERNOON SAT INTO
SAT NIGHT.  THERE IS ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD
OF 35 KNOT WIND GUSTS.  SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO BETWEEN 6 AND 9
FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.  THE NEXT SHIFT CAN EITHER UPGRADE
TO STRONG SMALL CRAFTS OR LOW END GALE WARNINGS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS IMPROVING AS SW-WINDS TURN S AND RELAX. WILL SEE WAVE
ACTION DISSIPATE BELOW SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS DETERIORATE INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH RAIN OVER THE WATERS
AND EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS. VISIBILITY IMPACTS POSSIBLE. WINDS
INCREASING OUT OF THE S. GUSTS EXCEEDING GALE FORCE APPEAR LIKELY.
WAVES SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASING TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS TURNING SW REMAINING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KTS.
WAVES MAINTAINED WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE
WATERS YET DETAILS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ232>235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ231-251-
     255-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...FRANK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FRANK/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 212020
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
319 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

AFTER A DRY BUT VERY COLD NIGHT...TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME
SATURDAY ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.  THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
SIGNIFICANT WARM UP SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY...BUT WITH A PERIOD
OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  QUIET FOR TUESDAY BUT CONDITIONS
MAY CHANGE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE THREAT OF A STORM SYSTEM. TURNING
COLDER INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

315 PM UPDATE...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT ALONG WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  THE EXCEPTION TO THAT WILL BE THE OUTER-
CAPE...WHERE SOME OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS MAY AFFECT THE REGION AT
TIMES.  OTHERWISE...GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...SHOULD BE A
NICE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING ONCE WINDS DECOUPLE.  THIS WILL
RESULT IN TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

LOW TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT AROUND 10 DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST NH/NORTHWEST MA...TO MAINLY THE TEENS ELSEWHERE.  THE
URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF DOWNTOWN BOSTON/PROVIDENCE WILL BE THE MILD
SPOTS...WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20 TO 25 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC ALLOWING FOR STRONG MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TO DEVELOP.  THE RESPONSE WILL BE AN INCREASE
IN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AS THE DAY WEARS ON...BUT IT WILL
REMAIN DRY GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

DESPITE THE WARM ADVECTION ALOFT...IT WILL TAKE TIME FOR THAT TO BE
COMPLETELY REALIZED AT THE SURFACE.  WHILE IT WILL BE MILDER THAN
TODAY...HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S WITH SOME MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S ON THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS.  HOWEVER...EXPECTING SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS A BIT STRONGER ALONG THE FAR
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  THIS WILL STILL MAKE IT FEEL RATHER
CHILLY OUTSIDE FOR NOVEMBER STANDARDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT.
THERE STILL SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCING TO BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIPITATION.  WHILE IT CERTAINLY WILL BE TOO WARM
ALOFT FOR ANY SNOW...THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS WILL IT BE COLD ENOUGH
AT THE SURFACE FOR SOME POCKETS OF SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
THE INTERIOR.  ITS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AND WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED...BUT ITS NOT AN IDEAL SETUP.  THERE IS A LOT OF WIND OFF
THE DECK  AND PROBABLY ENOUGH TO PREVENT MOST AREAS FROM DECOUPLING.
 GIVEN WERE +4C AT 850 MB SOME OF THIS MILDER AIR WILL BE ABLE TO
MIX DOWN. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL LIGHT ICING THREAT...BUT
STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED POCKETS IN THE DEEPER VALLEY
LOCATIONS.  LOW TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S
DURING THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD RISE SOME OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

- TURNING WARMER AND WET MONDAY
- A POSSIBLE MIDWEEK STORM...ESPECIALLY FOR SE NEW ENGLAND
- LOOKING COLDER INTO THANKSGIVING

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

TRENDING +AO/NAO WITH NEAR-NEUTRAL PNA SUGGESTS A MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN AND MILD. NO SURPRISE TO SEE A LACK OF DEEP CLOSED-LOW H5
DISTURBANCES...THOUGH AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH ABUNDANCE OF PACIFIC-
ORIGIN WAVES MAINTAINING TROUGHING BETWEEN SECTORS OF ABOVE-AVERAGE
OCEAN TEMPERATURES OVER THE NE-PACIFIC AND NW-ATLANTIC.

SOME OF THOSE WAVES ARE WELL OUT IN THE PACIFIC AND HAVE NOT EVEN
BEEN SAMPLED. THE WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WINTER-STORM POTENTIAL
FOR THE MIDWEEK / THANKSGIVING PERIOD IS JUST S OF THE FURTHEST E
ALEUTAIN ISLANDS OF ALASKA. NOTING THIS...HAVE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
THROUGH EARLY-NEXT WEEK WITH THE FORECAST...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE FOR A
POTENTIAL MIDWEEK STORM. WILL HIT UP THE DETAILS BELOW.

SO FOR SUNDAY...

CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH DISTURBANCE.
DISSIPATING BENEATH A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE / SUBSIDENCE. BENEATH
THE WARM-SECTOR AND RETURN S-FLOW ROUND THE HIGH PUSHING OFF INTO
THE ATLANTIC...H925 TEMPERATURES NEARLY +10C...MAY SEE HIGHS WARM
WELL INTO THE 50S WITH ANY SUNSHINE.

AS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...

WARM-FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING BROADSCALE LIFT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW
ACROSS THE C-CONUS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION BECOMES THE FOCUS
FOR RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. NON-DIURNAL WARMING TREND OVERNIGHT. ALL-
RAIN EVENT. MAIN CONCERNS ARE WITH BOTH WINDS AND RAIN.

WITH WINDS: STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET CENTERED AROUND MONDAY MORNING WITH
WINDS 1-2 KFT AGL MODEL-CONSENSUS AVERAGING AROUND 50 MPH /45 KTS/.
SUGGESTED BOUNDARY-LAYER DECOUPLING BENEATH MUCH WARMER AIR BETWEEN
H925-85. BUT IF 2M TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER AS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
COULD BE WARMER SUNDAY NIGHT AIDING IN LOW-LEVEL MIXING. ALSO NEED
TO CONSIDER ANY HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD ALSO AID WITH DRAGGING FASTER
MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE. OVERALL: MAIN CONCERN ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND
AND HIGH TERRAIN ABOVE 1 KFT. WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY. CIPS
ANALOG GUIDANCE HAS JUST ABOVE 50-PERCENT FOR WINDS > 35 MPH.

WITH RAIN: BROADSCALE ASCENT OF THE WARM-CONVEYER-BELT WITH PWATS UP
TO 1.5-INCHES AND ANOMALOUS HIGH-THETAE AIR. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET TO THE PARENT WARM-FRONT. EXPECT A BROAD
NW-SE BAND OF RAIN WITH PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED LINE OF HEAVIER RAIN. IT
MOVES THROUGH NOTABLY QUICK. MODEL-CONSENSUS AVERAGE RAIN AMOUNTS
ARE AROUND 0.50 - 0.75 INCHES. AM NOT EXPECTING ANY FLOOD ISSUES.

INTO MONDAY...

RAINS FOR THE MORNING...IMPROVING AFTERNOON. IF WE CLEAR AS H925
TEMPERATURES WARM TO +14C THEN WE COULD POSSIBLY SEE HIGHS INTO THE
MID- TO UPPER-60S /+18C/ POSSIBLY TO NEAR 70. MODEL-CONSENSUS H925
WINDS AVERAGE AROUND 45 MPH /40 KTS/ AND WITH WARMER CONDITIONS
COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXING OUT TO H9 AND MOMENTUM MIX-DOWN.
WILL HINT AT THIS IN THE FORECAST...BUT MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

WILL GO WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS...BUT THE MAIN PUMP OF MOISTURE
SHOULD BE WELL OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE THE MAIN COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO
THE DEEPENING LOW LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION SWEEPS
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. EXPECTING DRY AND COOLER WEATHER FOR TUESDAY...
PERHAPS CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...

JUST TOO EARLY TO SAY. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS VARY
CONSIDERABLY WITH SURFACE LOW CENTERS AROUND THE ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH
KEY UPON A LOW SE OF THE 40N / 70W BENCHMARK AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HAVE CONCERNS FOR SE NEW ENGLAND WHICH COULD SEE THE GREATEST IMPACT
WHILE NOTING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER S-CANADA /WITH THE CENTER
OVER THE C-CONUS/. THE GFS-UPGRADED /T1534/ IS A FAR OUTLIER AND IS
NOT CONSIDERED WITH THIS FORECAST.

EVALUATING SYNOPTICS...THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A COASTAL STORM
BUT MORE OF A WAVE LOW ALONG THE OFFSHORE STALLED FRONT. AS BEEN THE
CASE THIS YEAR...COLD AIR HAS BEEN PLUNGING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
BUT ITS TRUE BITE REMAINS MAINLY N/W OF OUR REGION. DO HAVE SOME
CONFIDENCE THAT THE WAVE LOW WILL HUG CLOSER TO THE COAST. THEN IT
COMES TO BREAKING DOWN TIMING / ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS / THERMAL FIELDS
WHICH RIGHT NOW ARE AGAIN TOO EARLY TO DIAGNOSE. THERE HAS BEEN A
CONSISTENT SIGNAL. STORM BEARS WATCHING.

EXPECTING A RETURN OF ARCTIC AIR BEHIND WHATEVER MIDWEEK SYSTEM THAT
MAY EMERGE. DAY 6-8 CIPS ANALOGS HAVE HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE SE-CONUS INTO THE OHIO-RIVER VALLEY
CENTERED AROUND THE LATE-THANKSGIVING WEEK PERIOD. EC ENSEMBLES AT
H85 HAVE THE FREEZING MARK PLUNGING TO NEARLY THE GULF COAST...WITH
-10C AIR INTO NEW ENGLAND BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

315 PM UPDATE...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WIND.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR.  SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
KNOTS DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON...PERHAPS UP TO 35 KNOTS BY EARLY EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  HOWEVER...A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN A FEW BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS.
ISOLATED POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR.  SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS
CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE EVENING...PERHAPS UP TO 35
KNOTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INITIAL -SHRA EARLY SUNDAY WITH LOW-END VFR FOLLOWED BY SOME BRIEF
IMPROVEMENT. WINDS TURNING S.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS DETERIORATE MVFR-LIFR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WITH +RA AND STRONG S-WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS POSSIBLE...
OTHERWISE LLWS IMPACTS WITH 50 KT S-WINDS 2 KFT AGL. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE BY MIDDAY...BUT COULD SEE CONTINUED SW-WINDS AROUND 25 KTS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

W-FLOW WITH MAINLY VFR.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ESPECIALLY
TO THE SE-TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWEST SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.  THIS A RESULT OF A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...DECREASING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC ON SAT ALLOWING FOR A RETURN
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AIR OVER THE WATERS.  THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD WEST
TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET AND GIVEN THE AIRMASS IS STILL RELATIVELY
COLD EXPECT DECENT MIXING OVER THE OCEAN.  THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED A
GALE WATCH FOR MOST OF OUR OPEN WATERS FROM MID AFTERNOON SAT INTO
SAT NIGHT.  THERE IS ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD
OF 35 KNOT WIND GUSTS.  SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO BETWEEN 6 AND 9
FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.  THE NEXT SHIFT CAN EITHER UPGRADE
TO STRONG SMALL CRAFTS OR LOW END GALE WARNINGS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS IMPROVING AS SW-WINDS TURN S AND RELAX. WILL SEE WAVE
ACTION DISSIPATE BELOW SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS DETERIORATE INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH RAIN OVER THE WATERS
AND EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS. VISIBILITY IMPACTS POSSIBLE. WINDS
INCREASING OUT OF THE S. GUSTS EXCEEDING GALE FORCE APPEAR LIKELY.
WAVES SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASING TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS TURNING SW REMAINING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KTS.
WAVES MAINTAINED WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE
WATERS YET DETAILS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ232>235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ231-251-
     255-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...FRANK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FRANK/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 211744
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1245 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BLUSTERY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS TODAY. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE SATURDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...THEN A SIGNIFICANT
WARM-UP IS IN STORE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF RAIN. A COASTAL STORM MAY AFFECT THE
REGION SOMETIME DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT IT IS UNCERTAIN
HOW CLOSE IT WILL TRACK TO NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1245 PM UPDATE...

SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE OVER SPREAD MUCH OF
INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  MAY EVEN
SEE A PASSING FLURRY ACROSS SOUTHERN NH/NORTHWEST MA OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. MAIN STORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPS.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO
AROUND 30 ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN...TO THE MIDDLE 30S IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  EXCELLENT MIXING WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH.  THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND
CHILL VALUES IN THE TEENS...TO THE LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

TONIGHT...
CENTER OF HIGH PRES MOVES TO THE MID ATLC COAST BUT RIDGE AXIS
BUILDS INTO NEW ENG WHICH WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WIND AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. GIVEN VERY DRY
AIRMASS IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT AS DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
DEVELOPS. MINS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE TEENS...EXCEPT LOWER 20S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOW PROB FOR SOME SINGLE NUMBER MIN
TEMPS W MA AND SW NH.

SATURDAY...
HIGH PRES BUILDS S OF NEW ENG WITH SUNSHINE GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS AS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE WEST. INCREASING SW FLOW BRINGS MILDER AIR
INTO SNE AS PRONOUNCED LOW AND MID LEVEL WARMING OCCURS. AFTER A
RATHER COLD START...TEMPS WILL RECOVER INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S. 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS BY LATE DAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO
GUSTY SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS CONTINUING TO SHOW
MODERATE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MID TERM...A GENERAL BLEND WILL BE
USED AS A BASELINE. ITS NOT UNTIL LATER ABOUT MID WEEK THAT THE
STRONGEST DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS EVEN AMONG
ENSEMBLES/MEANS...SO CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON-TUE REMAINS RELATIVELY
HIGH WHILE CONFIDENCE BECOMES LOW FROM MID NEXT WEEK THROUGH THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY PERIOD.

THE ISSUE IS LIKELY THE SHIFTING PATTERN THROUGH THE
PERIOD...STARTING WITH BUILDING RIDGE SUN-MON AS PHASING NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES DEVELOP INTO OCCLUDING SYSTEM AROUND THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS DEVELOPING TROF IS THEN EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DEEPEN AND DIG INTO A SLOWER LONGWAVE TROF TO THE
W...SIMILAR...THOUGH NOT AS COLD AS THIS WEEK/S DEEP TROUGH BUT
WITH THE AXIS FURTHER TO THE W. THEREFORE...TIME-MEAN JET REMAINS
SOUTHWESTERLY AND WARMING UNTIL THE CORE CAN SLIDE TO THE E LATER
IN THE WEEK. AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THAT THIS
SUGGEST THE NEAR NORMAL TO WARM WEATHER CONTINUES UNTIL A COOLING
TREND OCCURS LATER IN THE WEEK.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN EVENING...
SFC WARM FRONT WILL BE NOSING IN FROM THE W WHILE SHIFTING TO THE
N WITH TIME TOWARD 12Z SUN. NOTE MODEST MID LVL ISENTROPIC LIFT
WITH SOME MOISTURE SUGGESTING LOW END CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP
ESPECIALLY N OF THE MA PIKE AND W OF I-495. TIMING WILL BE THE KEY
HERE...AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT IF THE CLOUDS BUILD IN
TOO QUICKLY TEMPS MAY REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING WHILE
ALLOWANCE FOR MORE COOLING SUGGESTS THAT SFC TEMPS MAY BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. THEREFORE...MAY HAVE TO MONITOR FOR LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN...IF THE TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S
LIGHT ICING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT AGAIN TOTAL RAINFALL
WOULD BE LIGHT AND TEMPS MAY PRECLUDE ANY IMPACTS. WILL NEED TO
WATCH THIS AS WE APPROACH. OTHERWISE SUN...WARMING EXPECTED WITH
AREAS REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY LATE IN THE DAY IN SPITE
OF INCREASING CLOUDS. DWPTS ALSO RISE AS WELL.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
OCCLUDING LOW PRES TO THE W WILL PUSH 60-65 KT LLJ THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MON. THIS WILL BE
COINCIDENT WITH 1.0 INCH PWATS /ABOUT 2 STD DEVIATIONS FROM
NORMAL/. THEREFORE...EXPECT SOME WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH MODEST
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AS K VALUES HOVER AROUND 30...SUGGESTING HEAVY
RAIN. THIS COULD ALSO YIELD SOME STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A
FINE-LINE DEVELOPMENT WHICH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. OVERALL
RAINFALL VALUES OF 0.5-1.0 INCHES EXPECTED...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. AFTER A LULL THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS CONTINUES INTO MON
EVENING AS THE UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE PIVOTS THROUGH. MILD WX
CONTINUES AS HIGHS COULD APPROACH THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F.

TUE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BRIEFLY FOR TUE. WARM TEMPS STILL EXPECTED AS
THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR REMAINS TO THE W. EXPECT HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

WED-WED NIGHT...
STILL UNCERTAINTY HERE...BUT WITH STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTHEAST...A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRES MAY PASS JUST CLOSE
ENOUGH THE 40/70 BENCHMARK TO INITIATE TROWAL BASED PRECIP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND. REGARDING THERMAL PROFILES...WHICH
ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE GIVEN BOTH OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ARE ONLY RECENTLY CONVERGING ON THIS...TEMPS APPROACHING -6C TO
-10C AT H85 SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTERY PRECIP IN THE
INTERIOR...BUT MAY BE TOO WARM ALONG THE COAST. STILL TOO
UNCERTAIN HERE TO MAKE ANY CALLS...BUT WORTH WATCHING GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPLICATIONS.

THU-FRI...
DEPENDENT ON THE FINAL TIMING TRACK OF THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM...HIGH
PRES WOULD FOLLOW FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...WITH COLDER DRIER AIR
BUILDING IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

1245 PM UPDATE...

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS OF 20 TO 30
KNOTS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR WITH DIMINISHING WIND.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR.  SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
KNOTS DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON...PERHAPS UP TO 35 KNOTS BY EARLY EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  HOWEVER...A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN A FEW BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS.
ISOLATED POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR.  SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS
CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE EVENING...PERHAPS UP TO 35
KNOTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. DIMINISHING WIND.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...CIGS/VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR/IFR IN RAIN/FOG.
SOUTH WIND AT 2000 FEET INCREASES TO 60-65 KNOTS ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN LATE NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AND MAY GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND
OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THAT AREA. CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVE TO VFR
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT NIGHT AND SHOULD
GENERATE BRIEF MVFR IN SHOWERS. WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SSW TO WSW WITH
THE WIND SHIFT.

TUESDAY...VFR. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN MASS/RI

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE THRU SATURDAY.

TODAY...WE CONVERTED GALE WARNINGS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR
ALL WATERS. EXPECT WIND GUSTS TODAY WILL FALL JUST SHY OF GALES
WITH NW GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 30 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH SPEEDS DROPPING BELOW 20
KT LATE TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...EXPECT INCREASING SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS DECENT
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN STILL WARM SST...
GOOD MIXING OVER WATER SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT WITH MARGINAL
GALES POSSIBLE BY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SAT NIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO 35 KNOTS DURING
THE DAY AND THEN DIMINISH IN THE EVENING. SEAS 5-8 FEET WILL
DIMINISH IN THE EVENING.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...A WARM FRONT MOVES UP ACROSS THE WATERS. VSBYS
WILL LOWER TO 1-3 MILES IN RAIN AND FOG STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT
CONTINUING INTO THE MORNING. STRONG SOUTH WINDS...ROUGHLY 60-65
KNOTS...AT 2000 FEET ALTITUDE WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SOME OF THIS WIND MAY BE
DRAWN TO THE SURFACE IN HEAVIER BURSTS OF RAIN. AT THE
LEAST...SOUTH WINDS WILL BE ON THE HIGH END OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS AT OR NEAR GALE. THIS WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 5-10
FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.

TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST NEAR SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.
SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH BUT REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE EXPOSED
WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ230-
     232>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ231-251-
     255-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 211744
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1245 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BLUSTERY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS TODAY. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE SATURDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...THEN A SIGNIFICANT
WARM-UP IS IN STORE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF RAIN. A COASTAL STORM MAY AFFECT THE
REGION SOMETIME DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT IT IS UNCERTAIN
HOW CLOSE IT WILL TRACK TO NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1245 PM UPDATE...

SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE OVER SPREAD MUCH OF
INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  MAY EVEN
SEE A PASSING FLURRY ACROSS SOUTHERN NH/NORTHWEST MA OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. MAIN STORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPS.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO
AROUND 30 ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN...TO THE MIDDLE 30S IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  EXCELLENT MIXING WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH.  THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND
CHILL VALUES IN THE TEENS...TO THE LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

TONIGHT...
CENTER OF HIGH PRES MOVES TO THE MID ATLC COAST BUT RIDGE AXIS
BUILDS INTO NEW ENG WHICH WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WIND AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. GIVEN VERY DRY
AIRMASS IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT AS DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
DEVELOPS. MINS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE TEENS...EXCEPT LOWER 20S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOW PROB FOR SOME SINGLE NUMBER MIN
TEMPS W MA AND SW NH.

SATURDAY...
HIGH PRES BUILDS S OF NEW ENG WITH SUNSHINE GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS AS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE WEST. INCREASING SW FLOW BRINGS MILDER AIR
INTO SNE AS PRONOUNCED LOW AND MID LEVEL WARMING OCCURS. AFTER A
RATHER COLD START...TEMPS WILL RECOVER INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S. 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS BY LATE DAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO
GUSTY SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS CONTINUING TO SHOW
MODERATE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MID TERM...A GENERAL BLEND WILL BE
USED AS A BASELINE. ITS NOT UNTIL LATER ABOUT MID WEEK THAT THE
STRONGEST DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS EVEN AMONG
ENSEMBLES/MEANS...SO CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON-TUE REMAINS RELATIVELY
HIGH WHILE CONFIDENCE BECOMES LOW FROM MID NEXT WEEK THROUGH THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY PERIOD.

THE ISSUE IS LIKELY THE SHIFTING PATTERN THROUGH THE
PERIOD...STARTING WITH BUILDING RIDGE SUN-MON AS PHASING NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES DEVELOP INTO OCCLUDING SYSTEM AROUND THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS DEVELOPING TROF IS THEN EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DEEPEN AND DIG INTO A SLOWER LONGWAVE TROF TO THE
W...SIMILAR...THOUGH NOT AS COLD AS THIS WEEK/S DEEP TROUGH BUT
WITH THE AXIS FURTHER TO THE W. THEREFORE...TIME-MEAN JET REMAINS
SOUTHWESTERLY AND WARMING UNTIL THE CORE CAN SLIDE TO THE E LATER
IN THE WEEK. AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THAT THIS
SUGGEST THE NEAR NORMAL TO WARM WEATHER CONTINUES UNTIL A COOLING
TREND OCCURS LATER IN THE WEEK.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN EVENING...
SFC WARM FRONT WILL BE NOSING IN FROM THE W WHILE SHIFTING TO THE
N WITH TIME TOWARD 12Z SUN. NOTE MODEST MID LVL ISENTROPIC LIFT
WITH SOME MOISTURE SUGGESTING LOW END CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP
ESPECIALLY N OF THE MA PIKE AND W OF I-495. TIMING WILL BE THE KEY
HERE...AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT IF THE CLOUDS BUILD IN
TOO QUICKLY TEMPS MAY REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING WHILE
ALLOWANCE FOR MORE COOLING SUGGESTS THAT SFC TEMPS MAY BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. THEREFORE...MAY HAVE TO MONITOR FOR LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN...IF THE TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S
LIGHT ICING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT AGAIN TOTAL RAINFALL
WOULD BE LIGHT AND TEMPS MAY PRECLUDE ANY IMPACTS. WILL NEED TO
WATCH THIS AS WE APPROACH. OTHERWISE SUN...WARMING EXPECTED WITH
AREAS REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY LATE IN THE DAY IN SPITE
OF INCREASING CLOUDS. DWPTS ALSO RISE AS WELL.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
OCCLUDING LOW PRES TO THE W WILL PUSH 60-65 KT LLJ THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MON. THIS WILL BE
COINCIDENT WITH 1.0 INCH PWATS /ABOUT 2 STD DEVIATIONS FROM
NORMAL/. THEREFORE...EXPECT SOME WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH MODEST
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AS K VALUES HOVER AROUND 30...SUGGESTING HEAVY
RAIN. THIS COULD ALSO YIELD SOME STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A
FINE-LINE DEVELOPMENT WHICH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. OVERALL
RAINFALL VALUES OF 0.5-1.0 INCHES EXPECTED...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. AFTER A LULL THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS CONTINUES INTO MON
EVENING AS THE UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE PIVOTS THROUGH. MILD WX
CONTINUES AS HIGHS COULD APPROACH THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F.

TUE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BRIEFLY FOR TUE. WARM TEMPS STILL EXPECTED AS
THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR REMAINS TO THE W. EXPECT HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

WED-WED NIGHT...
STILL UNCERTAINTY HERE...BUT WITH STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTHEAST...A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRES MAY PASS JUST CLOSE
ENOUGH THE 40/70 BENCHMARK TO INITIATE TROWAL BASED PRECIP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND. REGARDING THERMAL PROFILES...WHICH
ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE GIVEN BOTH OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ARE ONLY RECENTLY CONVERGING ON THIS...TEMPS APPROACHING -6C TO
-10C AT H85 SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTERY PRECIP IN THE
INTERIOR...BUT MAY BE TOO WARM ALONG THE COAST. STILL TOO
UNCERTAIN HERE TO MAKE ANY CALLS...BUT WORTH WATCHING GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPLICATIONS.

THU-FRI...
DEPENDENT ON THE FINAL TIMING TRACK OF THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM...HIGH
PRES WOULD FOLLOW FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...WITH COLDER DRIER AIR
BUILDING IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

1245 PM UPDATE...

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS OF 20 TO 30
KNOTS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR WITH DIMINISHING WIND.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR.  SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
KNOTS DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON...PERHAPS UP TO 35 KNOTS BY EARLY EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  HOWEVER...A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN A FEW BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS.
ISOLATED POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR.  SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS
CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE EVENING...PERHAPS UP TO 35
KNOTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. DIMINISHING WIND.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...CIGS/VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR/IFR IN RAIN/FOG.
SOUTH WIND AT 2000 FEET INCREASES TO 60-65 KNOTS ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN LATE NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AND MAY GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND
OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THAT AREA. CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVE TO VFR
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT NIGHT AND SHOULD
GENERATE BRIEF MVFR IN SHOWERS. WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SSW TO WSW WITH
THE WIND SHIFT.

TUESDAY...VFR. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN MASS/RI

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE THRU SATURDAY.

TODAY...WE CONVERTED GALE WARNINGS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR
ALL WATERS. EXPECT WIND GUSTS TODAY WILL FALL JUST SHY OF GALES
WITH NW GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 30 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH SPEEDS DROPPING BELOW 20
KT LATE TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...EXPECT INCREASING SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS DECENT
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN STILL WARM SST...
GOOD MIXING OVER WATER SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT WITH MARGINAL
GALES POSSIBLE BY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SAT NIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO 35 KNOTS DURING
THE DAY AND THEN DIMINISH IN THE EVENING. SEAS 5-8 FEET WILL
DIMINISH IN THE EVENING.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...A WARM FRONT MOVES UP ACROSS THE WATERS. VSBYS
WILL LOWER TO 1-3 MILES IN RAIN AND FOG STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT
CONTINUING INTO THE MORNING. STRONG SOUTH WINDS...ROUGHLY 60-65
KNOTS...AT 2000 FEET ALTITUDE WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SOME OF THIS WIND MAY BE
DRAWN TO THE SURFACE IN HEAVIER BURSTS OF RAIN. AT THE
LEAST...SOUTH WINDS WILL BE ON THE HIGH END OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS AT OR NEAR GALE. THIS WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 5-10
FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.

TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST NEAR SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.
SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH BUT REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE EXPOSED
WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ230-
     232>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ231-251-
     255-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 211744
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1245 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BLUSTERY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS TODAY. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE SATURDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...THEN A SIGNIFICANT
WARM-UP IS IN STORE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF RAIN. A COASTAL STORM MAY AFFECT THE
REGION SOMETIME DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT IT IS UNCERTAIN
HOW CLOSE IT WILL TRACK TO NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1245 PM UPDATE...

SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE OVER SPREAD MUCH OF
INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  MAY EVEN
SEE A PASSING FLURRY ACROSS SOUTHERN NH/NORTHWEST MA OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. MAIN STORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPS.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO
AROUND 30 ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN...TO THE MIDDLE 30S IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  EXCELLENT MIXING WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH.  THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND
CHILL VALUES IN THE TEENS...TO THE LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

TONIGHT...
CENTER OF HIGH PRES MOVES TO THE MID ATLC COAST BUT RIDGE AXIS
BUILDS INTO NEW ENG WHICH WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WIND AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. GIVEN VERY DRY
AIRMASS IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT AS DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
DEVELOPS. MINS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE TEENS...EXCEPT LOWER 20S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOW PROB FOR SOME SINGLE NUMBER MIN
TEMPS W MA AND SW NH.

SATURDAY...
HIGH PRES BUILDS S OF NEW ENG WITH SUNSHINE GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS AS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE WEST. INCREASING SW FLOW BRINGS MILDER AIR
INTO SNE AS PRONOUNCED LOW AND MID LEVEL WARMING OCCURS. AFTER A
RATHER COLD START...TEMPS WILL RECOVER INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S. 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS BY LATE DAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO
GUSTY SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS CONTINUING TO SHOW
MODERATE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MID TERM...A GENERAL BLEND WILL BE
USED AS A BASELINE. ITS NOT UNTIL LATER ABOUT MID WEEK THAT THE
STRONGEST DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS EVEN AMONG
ENSEMBLES/MEANS...SO CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON-TUE REMAINS RELATIVELY
HIGH WHILE CONFIDENCE BECOMES LOW FROM MID NEXT WEEK THROUGH THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY PERIOD.

THE ISSUE IS LIKELY THE SHIFTING PATTERN THROUGH THE
PERIOD...STARTING WITH BUILDING RIDGE SUN-MON AS PHASING NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES DEVELOP INTO OCCLUDING SYSTEM AROUND THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS DEVELOPING TROF IS THEN EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DEEPEN AND DIG INTO A SLOWER LONGWAVE TROF TO THE
W...SIMILAR...THOUGH NOT AS COLD AS THIS WEEK/S DEEP TROUGH BUT
WITH THE AXIS FURTHER TO THE W. THEREFORE...TIME-MEAN JET REMAINS
SOUTHWESTERLY AND WARMING UNTIL THE CORE CAN SLIDE TO THE E LATER
IN THE WEEK. AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THAT THIS
SUGGEST THE NEAR NORMAL TO WARM WEATHER CONTINUES UNTIL A COOLING
TREND OCCURS LATER IN THE WEEK.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN EVENING...
SFC WARM FRONT WILL BE NOSING IN FROM THE W WHILE SHIFTING TO THE
N WITH TIME TOWARD 12Z SUN. NOTE MODEST MID LVL ISENTROPIC LIFT
WITH SOME MOISTURE SUGGESTING LOW END CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP
ESPECIALLY N OF THE MA PIKE AND W OF I-495. TIMING WILL BE THE KEY
HERE...AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT IF THE CLOUDS BUILD IN
TOO QUICKLY TEMPS MAY REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING WHILE
ALLOWANCE FOR MORE COOLING SUGGESTS THAT SFC TEMPS MAY BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. THEREFORE...MAY HAVE TO MONITOR FOR LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN...IF THE TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S
LIGHT ICING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT AGAIN TOTAL RAINFALL
WOULD BE LIGHT AND TEMPS MAY PRECLUDE ANY IMPACTS. WILL NEED TO
WATCH THIS AS WE APPROACH. OTHERWISE SUN...WARMING EXPECTED WITH
AREAS REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY LATE IN THE DAY IN SPITE
OF INCREASING CLOUDS. DWPTS ALSO RISE AS WELL.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
OCCLUDING LOW PRES TO THE W WILL PUSH 60-65 KT LLJ THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MON. THIS WILL BE
COINCIDENT WITH 1.0 INCH PWATS /ABOUT 2 STD DEVIATIONS FROM
NORMAL/. THEREFORE...EXPECT SOME WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH MODEST
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AS K VALUES HOVER AROUND 30...SUGGESTING HEAVY
RAIN. THIS COULD ALSO YIELD SOME STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A
FINE-LINE DEVELOPMENT WHICH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. OVERALL
RAINFALL VALUES OF 0.5-1.0 INCHES EXPECTED...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. AFTER A LULL THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS CONTINUES INTO MON
EVENING AS THE UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE PIVOTS THROUGH. MILD WX
CONTINUES AS HIGHS COULD APPROACH THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F.

TUE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BRIEFLY FOR TUE. WARM TEMPS STILL EXPECTED AS
THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR REMAINS TO THE W. EXPECT HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

WED-WED NIGHT...
STILL UNCERTAINTY HERE...BUT WITH STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTHEAST...A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRES MAY PASS JUST CLOSE
ENOUGH THE 40/70 BENCHMARK TO INITIATE TROWAL BASED PRECIP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND. REGARDING THERMAL PROFILES...WHICH
ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE GIVEN BOTH OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ARE ONLY RECENTLY CONVERGING ON THIS...TEMPS APPROACHING -6C TO
-10C AT H85 SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTERY PRECIP IN THE
INTERIOR...BUT MAY BE TOO WARM ALONG THE COAST. STILL TOO
UNCERTAIN HERE TO MAKE ANY CALLS...BUT WORTH WATCHING GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPLICATIONS.

THU-FRI...
DEPENDENT ON THE FINAL TIMING TRACK OF THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM...HIGH
PRES WOULD FOLLOW FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...WITH COLDER DRIER AIR
BUILDING IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

1245 PM UPDATE...

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS OF 20 TO 30
KNOTS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR WITH DIMINISHING WIND.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR.  SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
KNOTS DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON...PERHAPS UP TO 35 KNOTS BY EARLY EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  HOWEVER...A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN A FEW BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS.
ISOLATED POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR.  SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS
CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE EVENING...PERHAPS UP TO 35
KNOTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. DIMINISHING WIND.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...CIGS/VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR/IFR IN RAIN/FOG.
SOUTH WIND AT 2000 FEET INCREASES TO 60-65 KNOTS ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN LATE NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AND MAY GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND
OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THAT AREA. CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVE TO VFR
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT NIGHT AND SHOULD
GENERATE BRIEF MVFR IN SHOWERS. WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SSW TO WSW WITH
THE WIND SHIFT.

TUESDAY...VFR. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN MASS/RI

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE THRU SATURDAY.

TODAY...WE CONVERTED GALE WARNINGS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR
ALL WATERS. EXPECT WIND GUSTS TODAY WILL FALL JUST SHY OF GALES
WITH NW GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 30 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH SPEEDS DROPPING BELOW 20
KT LATE TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...EXPECT INCREASING SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS DECENT
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN STILL WARM SST...
GOOD MIXING OVER WATER SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT WITH MARGINAL
GALES POSSIBLE BY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SAT NIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO 35 KNOTS DURING
THE DAY AND THEN DIMINISH IN THE EVENING. SEAS 5-8 FEET WILL
DIMINISH IN THE EVENING.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...A WARM FRONT MOVES UP ACROSS THE WATERS. VSBYS
WILL LOWER TO 1-3 MILES IN RAIN AND FOG STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT
CONTINUING INTO THE MORNING. STRONG SOUTH WINDS...ROUGHLY 60-65
KNOTS...AT 2000 FEET ALTITUDE WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SOME OF THIS WIND MAY BE
DRAWN TO THE SURFACE IN HEAVIER BURSTS OF RAIN. AT THE
LEAST...SOUTH WINDS WILL BE ON THE HIGH END OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS AT OR NEAR GALE. THIS WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 5-10
FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.

TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST NEAR SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.
SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH BUT REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE EXPOSED
WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ230-
     232>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ231-251-
     255-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 211744
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1245 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BLUSTERY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS TODAY. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE SATURDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...THEN A SIGNIFICANT
WARM-UP IS IN STORE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF RAIN. A COASTAL STORM MAY AFFECT THE
REGION SOMETIME DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT IT IS UNCERTAIN
HOW CLOSE IT WILL TRACK TO NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1245 PM UPDATE...

SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE OVER SPREAD MUCH OF
INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  MAY EVEN
SEE A PASSING FLURRY ACROSS SOUTHERN NH/NORTHWEST MA OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. MAIN STORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPS.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO
AROUND 30 ACROSS THE INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN...TO THE MIDDLE 30S IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  EXCELLENT MIXING WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH.  THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND
CHILL VALUES IN THE TEENS...TO THE LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

TONIGHT...
CENTER OF HIGH PRES MOVES TO THE MID ATLC COAST BUT RIDGE AXIS
BUILDS INTO NEW ENG WHICH WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WIND AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. GIVEN VERY DRY
AIRMASS IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT AS DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
DEVELOPS. MINS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE TEENS...EXCEPT LOWER 20S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOW PROB FOR SOME SINGLE NUMBER MIN
TEMPS W MA AND SW NH.

SATURDAY...
HIGH PRES BUILDS S OF NEW ENG WITH SUNSHINE GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS AS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE WEST. INCREASING SW FLOW BRINGS MILDER AIR
INTO SNE AS PRONOUNCED LOW AND MID LEVEL WARMING OCCURS. AFTER A
RATHER COLD START...TEMPS WILL RECOVER INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S. 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS BY LATE DAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO
GUSTY SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS CONTINUING TO SHOW
MODERATE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MID TERM...A GENERAL BLEND WILL BE
USED AS A BASELINE. ITS NOT UNTIL LATER ABOUT MID WEEK THAT THE
STRONGEST DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS EVEN AMONG
ENSEMBLES/MEANS...SO CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON-TUE REMAINS RELATIVELY
HIGH WHILE CONFIDENCE BECOMES LOW FROM MID NEXT WEEK THROUGH THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY PERIOD.

THE ISSUE IS LIKELY THE SHIFTING PATTERN THROUGH THE
PERIOD...STARTING WITH BUILDING RIDGE SUN-MON AS PHASING NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES DEVELOP INTO OCCLUDING SYSTEM AROUND THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS DEVELOPING TROF IS THEN EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DEEPEN AND DIG INTO A SLOWER LONGWAVE TROF TO THE
W...SIMILAR...THOUGH NOT AS COLD AS THIS WEEK/S DEEP TROUGH BUT
WITH THE AXIS FURTHER TO THE W. THEREFORE...TIME-MEAN JET REMAINS
SOUTHWESTERLY AND WARMING UNTIL THE CORE CAN SLIDE TO THE E LATER
IN THE WEEK. AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THAT THIS
SUGGEST THE NEAR NORMAL TO WARM WEATHER CONTINUES UNTIL A COOLING
TREND OCCURS LATER IN THE WEEK.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN EVENING...
SFC WARM FRONT WILL BE NOSING IN FROM THE W WHILE SHIFTING TO THE
N WITH TIME TOWARD 12Z SUN. NOTE MODEST MID LVL ISENTROPIC LIFT
WITH SOME MOISTURE SUGGESTING LOW END CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP
ESPECIALLY N OF THE MA PIKE AND W OF I-495. TIMING WILL BE THE KEY
HERE...AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT IF THE CLOUDS BUILD IN
TOO QUICKLY TEMPS MAY REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING WHILE
ALLOWANCE FOR MORE COOLING SUGGESTS THAT SFC TEMPS MAY BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. THEREFORE...MAY HAVE TO MONITOR FOR LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN...IF THE TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S
LIGHT ICING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT AGAIN TOTAL RAINFALL
WOULD BE LIGHT AND TEMPS MAY PRECLUDE ANY IMPACTS. WILL NEED TO
WATCH THIS AS WE APPROACH. OTHERWISE SUN...WARMING EXPECTED WITH
AREAS REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY LATE IN THE DAY IN SPITE
OF INCREASING CLOUDS. DWPTS ALSO RISE AS WELL.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
OCCLUDING LOW PRES TO THE W WILL PUSH 60-65 KT LLJ THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MON. THIS WILL BE
COINCIDENT WITH 1.0 INCH PWATS /ABOUT 2 STD DEVIATIONS FROM
NORMAL/. THEREFORE...EXPECT SOME WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH MODEST
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AS K VALUES HOVER AROUND 30...SUGGESTING HEAVY
RAIN. THIS COULD ALSO YIELD SOME STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A
FINE-LINE DEVELOPMENT WHICH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. OVERALL
RAINFALL VALUES OF 0.5-1.0 INCHES EXPECTED...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. AFTER A LULL THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS CONTINUES INTO MON
EVENING AS THE UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE PIVOTS THROUGH. MILD WX
CONTINUES AS HIGHS COULD APPROACH THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F.

TUE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BRIEFLY FOR TUE. WARM TEMPS STILL EXPECTED AS
THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR REMAINS TO THE W. EXPECT HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

WED-WED NIGHT...
STILL UNCERTAINTY HERE...BUT WITH STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTHEAST...A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRES MAY PASS JUST CLOSE
ENOUGH THE 40/70 BENCHMARK TO INITIATE TROWAL BASED PRECIP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND. REGARDING THERMAL PROFILES...WHICH
ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE GIVEN BOTH OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ARE ONLY RECENTLY CONVERGING ON THIS...TEMPS APPROACHING -6C TO
-10C AT H85 SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTERY PRECIP IN THE
INTERIOR...BUT MAY BE TOO WARM ALONG THE COAST. STILL TOO
UNCERTAIN HERE TO MAKE ANY CALLS...BUT WORTH WATCHING GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPLICATIONS.

THU-FRI...
DEPENDENT ON THE FINAL TIMING TRACK OF THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM...HIGH
PRES WOULD FOLLOW FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...WITH COLDER DRIER AIR
BUILDING IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

1245 PM UPDATE...

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS OF 20 TO 30
KNOTS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR WITH DIMINISHING WIND.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR.  SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
KNOTS DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON...PERHAPS UP TO 35 KNOTS BY EARLY EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  HOWEVER...A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN A FEW BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS.
ISOLATED POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR.  SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS
CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE EVENING...PERHAPS UP TO 35
KNOTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. DIMINISHING WIND.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...CIGS/VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR/IFR IN RAIN/FOG.
SOUTH WIND AT 2000 FEET INCREASES TO 60-65 KNOTS ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN LATE NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AND MAY GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND
OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THAT AREA. CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVE TO VFR
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT NIGHT AND SHOULD
GENERATE BRIEF MVFR IN SHOWERS. WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SSW TO WSW WITH
THE WIND SHIFT.

TUESDAY...VFR. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN MASS/RI

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE THRU SATURDAY.

TODAY...WE CONVERTED GALE WARNINGS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR
ALL WATERS. EXPECT WIND GUSTS TODAY WILL FALL JUST SHY OF GALES
WITH NW GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 30 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH SPEEDS DROPPING BELOW 20
KT LATE TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...EXPECT INCREASING SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS DECENT
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN STILL WARM SST...
GOOD MIXING OVER WATER SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT WITH MARGINAL
GALES POSSIBLE BY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SAT NIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO 35 KNOTS DURING
THE DAY AND THEN DIMINISH IN THE EVENING. SEAS 5-8 FEET WILL
DIMINISH IN THE EVENING.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...A WARM FRONT MOVES UP ACROSS THE WATERS. VSBYS
WILL LOWER TO 1-3 MILES IN RAIN AND FOG STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT
CONTINUING INTO THE MORNING. STRONG SOUTH WINDS...ROUGHLY 60-65
KNOTS...AT 2000 FEET ALTITUDE WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SOME OF THIS WIND MAY BE
DRAWN TO THE SURFACE IN HEAVIER BURSTS OF RAIN. AT THE
LEAST...SOUTH WINDS WILL BE ON THE HIGH END OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS AT OR NEAR GALE. THIS WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 5-10
FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.

TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST NEAR SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.
SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH BUT REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE EXPOSED
WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ230-
     232>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ231-251-
     255-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 211439
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
940 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BLUSTERY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS TODAY. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE SATURDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...THEN A SIGNIFICANT
WARM-UP IS IN STORE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF RAIN. A COASTAL STORM MAY AFFECT THE
REGION SOMETIME DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT IT IS UNCERTAIN
HOW CLOSE IT WILL TRACK TO NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

940 AM UPDATE...

PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT MAY
JUST SEE A TOUCH OF DIURNAL CUMULUS ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR.

UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH 850 MB TEMPS -13/14C...
WHICH TRANSLATES TO MAXES UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 IN THE NW HIGHER
TERRAIN...TO MAINLY THE MIDDLE 30S COASTAL PLAIN.  WIND WILL BE A
FACTOR AS PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GOOD MIXING SUPPORTS NW WIND GUSTS
TO 25-35 MPH.  THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S FOR MOST OF THE DAY!  SO IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE JANUARY
THAN NOVEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
CENTER OF HIGH PRES MOVES TO THE MID ATLC COAST BUT RIDGE AXIS
BUILDS INTO NEW ENG WHICH WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WIND AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. GIVEN VERY DRY
AIRMASS IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT AS DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
DEVELOPS. MINS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE TEENS...EXCEPT LOWER 20S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOW PROB FOR SOME SINGLE NUMBER MIN
TEMPS W MA AND SW NH.

SATURDAY...
HIGH PRES BUILDS S OF NEW ENG WITH SUNSHINE GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS AS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE WEST. INCREASING SW FLOW BRINGS MILDER AIR
INTO SNE AS PRONOUNCED LOW AND MID LEVEL WARMING OCCURS. AFTER A
RATHER COLD START...TEMPS WILL RECOVER INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S. 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS BY LATE DAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO
GUSTY SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS CONTINUING TO SHOW
MODERATE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MID TERM...A GENERAL BLEND WILL BE
USED AS A BASELINE. ITS NOT UNTIL LATER ABOUT MID WEEK THAT THE
STRONGEST DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS EVEN AMONG
ENSEMBLES/MEANS...SO CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON-TUE REMAINS RELATIVELY
HIGH WHILE CONFIDENCE BECOMES LOW FROM MID NEXT WEEK THROUGH THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY PERIOD.

THE ISSUE IS LIKELY THE SHIFTING PATTERN THROUGH THE
PERIOD...STARTING WITH BUILDING RIDGE SUN-MON AS PHASING NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES DEVELOP INTO OCCLUDING SYSTEM AROUND THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS DEVELOPING TROF IS THEN EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DEEPEN AND DIG INTO A SLOWER LONGWAVE TROF TO THE
W...SIMILAR...THOUGH NOT AS COLD AS THIS WEEK/S DEEP TROUGH BUT
WITH THE AXIS FURTHER TO THE W. THEREFORE...TIME-MEAN JET REMAINS
SOUTHWESTERLY AND WARMING UNTIL THE CORE CAN SLIDE TO THE E LATER
IN THE WEEK. AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THAT THIS
SUGGEST THE NEAR NORMAL TO WARM WEATHER CONTINUES UNTIL A COOLING
TREND OCCURS LATER IN THE WEEK.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN EVENING...
SFC WARM FRONT WILL BE NOSING IN FROM THE W WHILE SHIFTING TO THE
N WITH TIME TOWARD 12Z SUN. NOTE MODEST MID LVL ISENTROPIC LIFT
WITH SOME MOISTURE SUGGESTING LOW END CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP
ESPECIALLY N OF THE MA PIKE AND W OF I-495. TIMING WILL BE THE KEY
HERE...AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT IF THE CLOUDS BUILD IN
TOO QUICKLY TEMPS MAY REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING WHILE
ALLOWANCE FOR MORE COOLING SUGGESTS THAT SFC TEMPS MAY BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. THEREFORE...MAY HAVE TO MONITOR FOR LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN...IF THE TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S
LIGHT ICING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT AGAIN TOTAL RAINFALL
WOULD BE LIGHT AND TEMPS MAY PRECLUDE ANY IMPACTS. WILL NEED TO
WATCH THIS AS WE APPROACH. OTHERWISE SUN...WARMING EXPECTED WITH
AREAS REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY LATE IN THE DAY IN SPITE
OF INCREASING CLOUDS. DWPTS ALSO RISE AS WELL.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
OCCLUDING LOW PRES TO THE W WILL PUSH 60-65 KT LLJ THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MON. THIS WILL BE
COINCIDENT WITH 1.0 INCH PWATS /ABOUT 2 STD DEVIATIONS FROM
NORMAL/. THEREFORE...EXPECT SOME WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH MODEST
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AS K VALUES HOVER AROUND 30...SUGGESTING HEAVY
RAIN. THIS COULD ALSO YIELD SOME STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A
FINE-LINE DEVELOPMENT WHICH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. OVERALL
RAINFALL VALUES OF 0.5-1.0 INCHES EXPECTED...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. AFTER A LULL THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS CONTINUES INTO MON
EVENING AS THE UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE PIVOTS THROUGH. MILD WX
CONTINUES AS HIGHS COULD APPROACH THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F.

TUE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BRIEFLY FOR TUE. WARM TEMPS STILL EXPECTED AS
THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR REMAINS TO THE W. EXPECT HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

WED-WED NIGHT...
STILL UNCERTAINTY HERE...BUT WITH STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTHEAST...A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRES MAY PASS JUST CLOSE
ENOUGH THE 40/70 BENCHMARK TO INITIATE TROWAL BASED PRECIP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND. REGARDING THERMAL PROFILES...WHICH
ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE GIVEN BOTH OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ARE ONLY RECENTLY CONVERGING ON THIS...TEMPS APPROACHING -6C TO
-10C AT H85 SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTERY PRECIP IN THE
INTERIOR...BUT MAY BE TOO WARM ALONG THE COAST. STILL TOO
UNCERTAIN HERE TO MAKE ANY CALLS...BUT WORTH WATCHING GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPLICATIONS.

THU-FRI...
DEPENDENT ON THE FINAL TIMING TRACK OF THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM...HIGH
PRES WOULD FOLLOW FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...WITH COLDER DRIER AIR
BUILDING IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

940 AM UPDATE...

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH 15Z UPDATE.

TODAY...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH DIMINISHING WIND.

SATURDAY...VFR. INCREASING SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO
25-30 KT DEVELOPING IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CLOUDS MOVE IN AT NIGHT...BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN LIGHT
SPRINKLES ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. COULD BE LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE/FREEZING SPRINKLES NORTH AND WEST OF I-495.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. DIMINISHING WIND.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...CIGS/VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR/IFR IN RAIN/FOG.
SOUTH WIND AT 2000 FEET INCREASES TO 60-65 KNOTS ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN LATE NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AND MAY GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND
OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THAT AREA. CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVE TO VFR
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT NIGHT AND SHOULD
GENERATE BRIEF MVFR IN SHOWERS. WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SSW TO WSW WITH
THE WIND SHIFT.

TUESDAY...VFR. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN MASS/RI

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE THRU SATURDAY.

TODAY...WE CONVERTED GALE WARNINGS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR
ALL WATERS. EXPECT WIND GUSTS TODAY WILL FALL JUST SHY OF GALES
WITH NW GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 30 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH SPEEDS DROPPING BELOW 20
KT LATE TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...EXPECT INCREASING SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS DECENT
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN STILL WARM SST...
GOOD MIXING OVER WATER SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT WITH MARGINAL
GALES POSSIBLE BY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SAT NIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO 35 KNOTS DURING
THE DAY AND THEN DIMINISH IN THE EVENING. SEAS 5-8 FEET WILL
DIMINISH IN THE EVENING.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...A WARM FRONT MOVES UP ACROSS THE WATERS. VSBYS
WILL LOWER TO 1-3 MILES IN RAIN AND FOG STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT
CONTINUING INTO THE MORNING. STRONG SOUTH WINDS...ROUGHLY 60-65
KNOTS...AT 2000 FEET ALTITUDE WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SOME OF THIS WIND MAY BE
DRAWN TO THE SURFACE IN HEAVIER BURSTS OF RAIN. AT THE
LEAST...SOUTH WINDS WILL BE ON THE HIGH END OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS AT OR NEAR GALE. THIS WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 5-10
FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.

TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST NEAR SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.
SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH BUT REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE EXPOSED
WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ230-
     232>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ231-251-
     255-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 211439
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
940 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BLUSTERY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS TODAY. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE SATURDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...THEN A SIGNIFICANT
WARM-UP IS IN STORE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF RAIN. A COASTAL STORM MAY AFFECT THE
REGION SOMETIME DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT IT IS UNCERTAIN
HOW CLOSE IT WILL TRACK TO NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

940 AM UPDATE...

PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT MAY
JUST SEE A TOUCH OF DIURNAL CUMULUS ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR.

UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH 850 MB TEMPS -13/14C...
WHICH TRANSLATES TO MAXES UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 IN THE NW HIGHER
TERRAIN...TO MAINLY THE MIDDLE 30S COASTAL PLAIN.  WIND WILL BE A
FACTOR AS PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GOOD MIXING SUPPORTS NW WIND GUSTS
TO 25-35 MPH.  THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S FOR MOST OF THE DAY!  SO IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE JANUARY
THAN NOVEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
CENTER OF HIGH PRES MOVES TO THE MID ATLC COAST BUT RIDGE AXIS
BUILDS INTO NEW ENG WHICH WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WIND AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. GIVEN VERY DRY
AIRMASS IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT AS DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
DEVELOPS. MINS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE TEENS...EXCEPT LOWER 20S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOW PROB FOR SOME SINGLE NUMBER MIN
TEMPS W MA AND SW NH.

SATURDAY...
HIGH PRES BUILDS S OF NEW ENG WITH SUNSHINE GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS AS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE WEST. INCREASING SW FLOW BRINGS MILDER AIR
INTO SNE AS PRONOUNCED LOW AND MID LEVEL WARMING OCCURS. AFTER A
RATHER COLD START...TEMPS WILL RECOVER INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S. 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS BY LATE DAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO
GUSTY SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS CONTINUING TO SHOW
MODERATE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MID TERM...A GENERAL BLEND WILL BE
USED AS A BASELINE. ITS NOT UNTIL LATER ABOUT MID WEEK THAT THE
STRONGEST DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS EVEN AMONG
ENSEMBLES/MEANS...SO CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON-TUE REMAINS RELATIVELY
HIGH WHILE CONFIDENCE BECOMES LOW FROM MID NEXT WEEK THROUGH THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY PERIOD.

THE ISSUE IS LIKELY THE SHIFTING PATTERN THROUGH THE
PERIOD...STARTING WITH BUILDING RIDGE SUN-MON AS PHASING NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES DEVELOP INTO OCCLUDING SYSTEM AROUND THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS DEVELOPING TROF IS THEN EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DEEPEN AND DIG INTO A SLOWER LONGWAVE TROF TO THE
W...SIMILAR...THOUGH NOT AS COLD AS THIS WEEK/S DEEP TROUGH BUT
WITH THE AXIS FURTHER TO THE W. THEREFORE...TIME-MEAN JET REMAINS
SOUTHWESTERLY AND WARMING UNTIL THE CORE CAN SLIDE TO THE E LATER
IN THE WEEK. AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THAT THIS
SUGGEST THE NEAR NORMAL TO WARM WEATHER CONTINUES UNTIL A COOLING
TREND OCCURS LATER IN THE WEEK.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN EVENING...
SFC WARM FRONT WILL BE NOSING IN FROM THE W WHILE SHIFTING TO THE
N WITH TIME TOWARD 12Z SUN. NOTE MODEST MID LVL ISENTROPIC LIFT
WITH SOME MOISTURE SUGGESTING LOW END CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP
ESPECIALLY N OF THE MA PIKE AND W OF I-495. TIMING WILL BE THE KEY
HERE...AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT IF THE CLOUDS BUILD IN
TOO QUICKLY TEMPS MAY REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING WHILE
ALLOWANCE FOR MORE COOLING SUGGESTS THAT SFC TEMPS MAY BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. THEREFORE...MAY HAVE TO MONITOR FOR LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN...IF THE TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S
LIGHT ICING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT AGAIN TOTAL RAINFALL
WOULD BE LIGHT AND TEMPS MAY PRECLUDE ANY IMPACTS. WILL NEED TO
WATCH THIS AS WE APPROACH. OTHERWISE SUN...WARMING EXPECTED WITH
AREAS REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY LATE IN THE DAY IN SPITE
OF INCREASING CLOUDS. DWPTS ALSO RISE AS WELL.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
OCCLUDING LOW PRES TO THE W WILL PUSH 60-65 KT LLJ THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MON. THIS WILL BE
COINCIDENT WITH 1.0 INCH PWATS /ABOUT 2 STD DEVIATIONS FROM
NORMAL/. THEREFORE...EXPECT SOME WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH MODEST
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AS K VALUES HOVER AROUND 30...SUGGESTING HEAVY
RAIN. THIS COULD ALSO YIELD SOME STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A
FINE-LINE DEVELOPMENT WHICH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. OVERALL
RAINFALL VALUES OF 0.5-1.0 INCHES EXPECTED...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. AFTER A LULL THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS CONTINUES INTO MON
EVENING AS THE UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE PIVOTS THROUGH. MILD WX
CONTINUES AS HIGHS COULD APPROACH THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F.

TUE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BRIEFLY FOR TUE. WARM TEMPS STILL EXPECTED AS
THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR REMAINS TO THE W. EXPECT HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

WED-WED NIGHT...
STILL UNCERTAINTY HERE...BUT WITH STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTHEAST...A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRES MAY PASS JUST CLOSE
ENOUGH THE 40/70 BENCHMARK TO INITIATE TROWAL BASED PRECIP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND. REGARDING THERMAL PROFILES...WHICH
ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE GIVEN BOTH OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ARE ONLY RECENTLY CONVERGING ON THIS...TEMPS APPROACHING -6C TO
-10C AT H85 SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTERY PRECIP IN THE
INTERIOR...BUT MAY BE TOO WARM ALONG THE COAST. STILL TOO
UNCERTAIN HERE TO MAKE ANY CALLS...BUT WORTH WATCHING GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPLICATIONS.

THU-FRI...
DEPENDENT ON THE FINAL TIMING TRACK OF THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM...HIGH
PRES WOULD FOLLOW FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...WITH COLDER DRIER AIR
BUILDING IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

940 AM UPDATE...

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH 15Z UPDATE.

TODAY...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH DIMINISHING WIND.

SATURDAY...VFR. INCREASING SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO
25-30 KT DEVELOPING IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CLOUDS MOVE IN AT NIGHT...BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN LIGHT
SPRINKLES ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. COULD BE LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE/FREEZING SPRINKLES NORTH AND WEST OF I-495.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. DIMINISHING WIND.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...CIGS/VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR/IFR IN RAIN/FOG.
SOUTH WIND AT 2000 FEET INCREASES TO 60-65 KNOTS ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN LATE NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AND MAY GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND
OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THAT AREA. CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVE TO VFR
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT NIGHT AND SHOULD
GENERATE BRIEF MVFR IN SHOWERS. WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SSW TO WSW WITH
THE WIND SHIFT.

TUESDAY...VFR. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN MASS/RI

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE THRU SATURDAY.

TODAY...WE CONVERTED GALE WARNINGS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR
ALL WATERS. EXPECT WIND GUSTS TODAY WILL FALL JUST SHY OF GALES
WITH NW GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 30 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH SPEEDS DROPPING BELOW 20
KT LATE TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...EXPECT INCREASING SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS DECENT
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN STILL WARM SST...
GOOD MIXING OVER WATER SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT WITH MARGINAL
GALES POSSIBLE BY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SAT NIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO 35 KNOTS DURING
THE DAY AND THEN DIMINISH IN THE EVENING. SEAS 5-8 FEET WILL
DIMINISH IN THE EVENING.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...A WARM FRONT MOVES UP ACROSS THE WATERS. VSBYS
WILL LOWER TO 1-3 MILES IN RAIN AND FOG STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT
CONTINUING INTO THE MORNING. STRONG SOUTH WINDS...ROUGHLY 60-65
KNOTS...AT 2000 FEET ALTITUDE WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SOME OF THIS WIND MAY BE
DRAWN TO THE SURFACE IN HEAVIER BURSTS OF RAIN. AT THE
LEAST...SOUTH WINDS WILL BE ON THE HIGH END OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS AT OR NEAR GALE. THIS WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 5-10
FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.

TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST NEAR SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.
SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH BUT REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE EXPOSED
WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ230-
     232>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ231-251-
     255-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 211439
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
940 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BLUSTERY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS TODAY. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE SATURDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...THEN A SIGNIFICANT
WARM-UP IS IN STORE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF RAIN. A COASTAL STORM MAY AFFECT THE
REGION SOMETIME DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT IT IS UNCERTAIN
HOW CLOSE IT WILL TRACK TO NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

940 AM UPDATE...

PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT MAY
JUST SEE A TOUCH OF DIURNAL CUMULUS ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR.

UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH 850 MB TEMPS -13/14C...
WHICH TRANSLATES TO MAXES UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 IN THE NW HIGHER
TERRAIN...TO MAINLY THE MIDDLE 30S COASTAL PLAIN.  WIND WILL BE A
FACTOR AS PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GOOD MIXING SUPPORTS NW WIND GUSTS
TO 25-35 MPH.  THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S FOR MOST OF THE DAY!  SO IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE JANUARY
THAN NOVEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
CENTER OF HIGH PRES MOVES TO THE MID ATLC COAST BUT RIDGE AXIS
BUILDS INTO NEW ENG WHICH WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WIND AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. GIVEN VERY DRY
AIRMASS IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT AS DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
DEVELOPS. MINS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE TEENS...EXCEPT LOWER 20S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOW PROB FOR SOME SINGLE NUMBER MIN
TEMPS W MA AND SW NH.

SATURDAY...
HIGH PRES BUILDS S OF NEW ENG WITH SUNSHINE GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS AS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE WEST. INCREASING SW FLOW BRINGS MILDER AIR
INTO SNE AS PRONOUNCED LOW AND MID LEVEL WARMING OCCURS. AFTER A
RATHER COLD START...TEMPS WILL RECOVER INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S. 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS BY LATE DAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO
GUSTY SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS CONTINUING TO SHOW
MODERATE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MID TERM...A GENERAL BLEND WILL BE
USED AS A BASELINE. ITS NOT UNTIL LATER ABOUT MID WEEK THAT THE
STRONGEST DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS EVEN AMONG
ENSEMBLES/MEANS...SO CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON-TUE REMAINS RELATIVELY
HIGH WHILE CONFIDENCE BECOMES LOW FROM MID NEXT WEEK THROUGH THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY PERIOD.

THE ISSUE IS LIKELY THE SHIFTING PATTERN THROUGH THE
PERIOD...STARTING WITH BUILDING RIDGE SUN-MON AS PHASING NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES DEVELOP INTO OCCLUDING SYSTEM AROUND THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS DEVELOPING TROF IS THEN EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DEEPEN AND DIG INTO A SLOWER LONGWAVE TROF TO THE
W...SIMILAR...THOUGH NOT AS COLD AS THIS WEEK/S DEEP TROUGH BUT
WITH THE AXIS FURTHER TO THE W. THEREFORE...TIME-MEAN JET REMAINS
SOUTHWESTERLY AND WARMING UNTIL THE CORE CAN SLIDE TO THE E LATER
IN THE WEEK. AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THAT THIS
SUGGEST THE NEAR NORMAL TO WARM WEATHER CONTINUES UNTIL A COOLING
TREND OCCURS LATER IN THE WEEK.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN EVENING...
SFC WARM FRONT WILL BE NOSING IN FROM THE W WHILE SHIFTING TO THE
N WITH TIME TOWARD 12Z SUN. NOTE MODEST MID LVL ISENTROPIC LIFT
WITH SOME MOISTURE SUGGESTING LOW END CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP
ESPECIALLY N OF THE MA PIKE AND W OF I-495. TIMING WILL BE THE KEY
HERE...AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT IF THE CLOUDS BUILD IN
TOO QUICKLY TEMPS MAY REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING WHILE
ALLOWANCE FOR MORE COOLING SUGGESTS THAT SFC TEMPS MAY BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. THEREFORE...MAY HAVE TO MONITOR FOR LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN...IF THE TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S
LIGHT ICING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT AGAIN TOTAL RAINFALL
WOULD BE LIGHT AND TEMPS MAY PRECLUDE ANY IMPACTS. WILL NEED TO
WATCH THIS AS WE APPROACH. OTHERWISE SUN...WARMING EXPECTED WITH
AREAS REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY LATE IN THE DAY IN SPITE
OF INCREASING CLOUDS. DWPTS ALSO RISE AS WELL.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
OCCLUDING LOW PRES TO THE W WILL PUSH 60-65 KT LLJ THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MON. THIS WILL BE
COINCIDENT WITH 1.0 INCH PWATS /ABOUT 2 STD DEVIATIONS FROM
NORMAL/. THEREFORE...EXPECT SOME WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH MODEST
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AS K VALUES HOVER AROUND 30...SUGGESTING HEAVY
RAIN. THIS COULD ALSO YIELD SOME STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A
FINE-LINE DEVELOPMENT WHICH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. OVERALL
RAINFALL VALUES OF 0.5-1.0 INCHES EXPECTED...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. AFTER A LULL THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS CONTINUES INTO MON
EVENING AS THE UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE PIVOTS THROUGH. MILD WX
CONTINUES AS HIGHS COULD APPROACH THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F.

TUE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BRIEFLY FOR TUE. WARM TEMPS STILL EXPECTED AS
THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR REMAINS TO THE W. EXPECT HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

WED-WED NIGHT...
STILL UNCERTAINTY HERE...BUT WITH STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTHEAST...A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRES MAY PASS JUST CLOSE
ENOUGH THE 40/70 BENCHMARK TO INITIATE TROWAL BASED PRECIP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND. REGARDING THERMAL PROFILES...WHICH
ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE GIVEN BOTH OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ARE ONLY RECENTLY CONVERGING ON THIS...TEMPS APPROACHING -6C TO
-10C AT H85 SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTERY PRECIP IN THE
INTERIOR...BUT MAY BE TOO WARM ALONG THE COAST. STILL TOO
UNCERTAIN HERE TO MAKE ANY CALLS...BUT WORTH WATCHING GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPLICATIONS.

THU-FRI...
DEPENDENT ON THE FINAL TIMING TRACK OF THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM...HIGH
PRES WOULD FOLLOW FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...WITH COLDER DRIER AIR
BUILDING IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

940 AM UPDATE...

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH 15Z UPDATE.

TODAY...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH DIMINISHING WIND.

SATURDAY...VFR. INCREASING SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO
25-30 KT DEVELOPING IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CLOUDS MOVE IN AT NIGHT...BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN LIGHT
SPRINKLES ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. COULD BE LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE/FREEZING SPRINKLES NORTH AND WEST OF I-495.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. DIMINISHING WIND.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...CIGS/VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR/IFR IN RAIN/FOG.
SOUTH WIND AT 2000 FEET INCREASES TO 60-65 KNOTS ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN LATE NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AND MAY GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND
OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THAT AREA. CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVE TO VFR
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT NIGHT AND SHOULD
GENERATE BRIEF MVFR IN SHOWERS. WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SSW TO WSW WITH
THE WIND SHIFT.

TUESDAY...VFR. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN MASS/RI

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE THRU SATURDAY.

TODAY...WE CONVERTED GALE WARNINGS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR
ALL WATERS. EXPECT WIND GUSTS TODAY WILL FALL JUST SHY OF GALES
WITH NW GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 30 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH SPEEDS DROPPING BELOW 20
KT LATE TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...EXPECT INCREASING SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS DECENT
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN STILL WARM SST...
GOOD MIXING OVER WATER SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT WITH MARGINAL
GALES POSSIBLE BY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SAT NIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO 35 KNOTS DURING
THE DAY AND THEN DIMINISH IN THE EVENING. SEAS 5-8 FEET WILL
DIMINISH IN THE EVENING.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...A WARM FRONT MOVES UP ACROSS THE WATERS. VSBYS
WILL LOWER TO 1-3 MILES IN RAIN AND FOG STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT
CONTINUING INTO THE MORNING. STRONG SOUTH WINDS...ROUGHLY 60-65
KNOTS...AT 2000 FEET ALTITUDE WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SOME OF THIS WIND MAY BE
DRAWN TO THE SURFACE IN HEAVIER BURSTS OF RAIN. AT THE
LEAST...SOUTH WINDS WILL BE ON THE HIGH END OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS AT OR NEAR GALE. THIS WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 5-10
FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.

TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST NEAR SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.
SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH BUT REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE EXPOSED
WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ230-
     232>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ231-251-
     255-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 211439
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
940 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BLUSTERY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS TODAY. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE SATURDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...THEN A SIGNIFICANT
WARM-UP IS IN STORE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF RAIN. A COASTAL STORM MAY AFFECT THE
REGION SOMETIME DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT IT IS UNCERTAIN
HOW CLOSE IT WILL TRACK TO NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

940 AM UPDATE...

PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT MAY
JUST SEE A TOUCH OF DIURNAL CUMULUS ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR.

UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH 850 MB TEMPS -13/14C...
WHICH TRANSLATES TO MAXES UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 IN THE NW HIGHER
TERRAIN...TO MAINLY THE MIDDLE 30S COASTAL PLAIN.  WIND WILL BE A
FACTOR AS PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GOOD MIXING SUPPORTS NW WIND GUSTS
TO 25-35 MPH.  THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S FOR MOST OF THE DAY!  SO IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE JANUARY
THAN NOVEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
CENTER OF HIGH PRES MOVES TO THE MID ATLC COAST BUT RIDGE AXIS
BUILDS INTO NEW ENG WHICH WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WIND AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. GIVEN VERY DRY
AIRMASS IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT AS DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
DEVELOPS. MINS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE TEENS...EXCEPT LOWER 20S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOW PROB FOR SOME SINGLE NUMBER MIN
TEMPS W MA AND SW NH.

SATURDAY...
HIGH PRES BUILDS S OF NEW ENG WITH SUNSHINE GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS AS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE WEST. INCREASING SW FLOW BRINGS MILDER AIR
INTO SNE AS PRONOUNCED LOW AND MID LEVEL WARMING OCCURS. AFTER A
RATHER COLD START...TEMPS WILL RECOVER INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S. 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS BY LATE DAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO
GUSTY SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS CONTINUING TO SHOW
MODERATE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MID TERM...A GENERAL BLEND WILL BE
USED AS A BASELINE. ITS NOT UNTIL LATER ABOUT MID WEEK THAT THE
STRONGEST DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS EVEN AMONG
ENSEMBLES/MEANS...SO CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON-TUE REMAINS RELATIVELY
HIGH WHILE CONFIDENCE BECOMES LOW FROM MID NEXT WEEK THROUGH THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY PERIOD.

THE ISSUE IS LIKELY THE SHIFTING PATTERN THROUGH THE
PERIOD...STARTING WITH BUILDING RIDGE SUN-MON AS PHASING NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES DEVELOP INTO OCCLUDING SYSTEM AROUND THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS DEVELOPING TROF IS THEN EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DEEPEN AND DIG INTO A SLOWER LONGWAVE TROF TO THE
W...SIMILAR...THOUGH NOT AS COLD AS THIS WEEK/S DEEP TROUGH BUT
WITH THE AXIS FURTHER TO THE W. THEREFORE...TIME-MEAN JET REMAINS
SOUTHWESTERLY AND WARMING UNTIL THE CORE CAN SLIDE TO THE E LATER
IN THE WEEK. AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THAT THIS
SUGGEST THE NEAR NORMAL TO WARM WEATHER CONTINUES UNTIL A COOLING
TREND OCCURS LATER IN THE WEEK.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN EVENING...
SFC WARM FRONT WILL BE NOSING IN FROM THE W WHILE SHIFTING TO THE
N WITH TIME TOWARD 12Z SUN. NOTE MODEST MID LVL ISENTROPIC LIFT
WITH SOME MOISTURE SUGGESTING LOW END CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP
ESPECIALLY N OF THE MA PIKE AND W OF I-495. TIMING WILL BE THE KEY
HERE...AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT IF THE CLOUDS BUILD IN
TOO QUICKLY TEMPS MAY REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING WHILE
ALLOWANCE FOR MORE COOLING SUGGESTS THAT SFC TEMPS MAY BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. THEREFORE...MAY HAVE TO MONITOR FOR LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN...IF THE TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S
LIGHT ICING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT AGAIN TOTAL RAINFALL
WOULD BE LIGHT AND TEMPS MAY PRECLUDE ANY IMPACTS. WILL NEED TO
WATCH THIS AS WE APPROACH. OTHERWISE SUN...WARMING EXPECTED WITH
AREAS REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY LATE IN THE DAY IN SPITE
OF INCREASING CLOUDS. DWPTS ALSO RISE AS WELL.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
OCCLUDING LOW PRES TO THE W WILL PUSH 60-65 KT LLJ THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MON. THIS WILL BE
COINCIDENT WITH 1.0 INCH PWATS /ABOUT 2 STD DEVIATIONS FROM
NORMAL/. THEREFORE...EXPECT SOME WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH MODEST
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AS K VALUES HOVER AROUND 30...SUGGESTING HEAVY
RAIN. THIS COULD ALSO YIELD SOME STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A
FINE-LINE DEVELOPMENT WHICH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. OVERALL
RAINFALL VALUES OF 0.5-1.0 INCHES EXPECTED...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. AFTER A LULL THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS CONTINUES INTO MON
EVENING AS THE UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE PIVOTS THROUGH. MILD WX
CONTINUES AS HIGHS COULD APPROACH THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F.

TUE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BRIEFLY FOR TUE. WARM TEMPS STILL EXPECTED AS
THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR REMAINS TO THE W. EXPECT HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

WED-WED NIGHT...
STILL UNCERTAINTY HERE...BUT WITH STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTHEAST...A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRES MAY PASS JUST CLOSE
ENOUGH THE 40/70 BENCHMARK TO INITIATE TROWAL BASED PRECIP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND. REGARDING THERMAL PROFILES...WHICH
ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE GIVEN BOTH OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ARE ONLY RECENTLY CONVERGING ON THIS...TEMPS APPROACHING -6C TO
-10C AT H85 SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTERY PRECIP IN THE
INTERIOR...BUT MAY BE TOO WARM ALONG THE COAST. STILL TOO
UNCERTAIN HERE TO MAKE ANY CALLS...BUT WORTH WATCHING GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPLICATIONS.

THU-FRI...
DEPENDENT ON THE FINAL TIMING TRACK OF THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM...HIGH
PRES WOULD FOLLOW FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...WITH COLDER DRIER AIR
BUILDING IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

940 AM UPDATE...

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH 15Z UPDATE.

TODAY...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH DIMINISHING WIND.

SATURDAY...VFR. INCREASING SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO
25-30 KT DEVELOPING IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CLOUDS MOVE IN AT NIGHT...BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN LIGHT
SPRINKLES ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. COULD BE LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE/FREEZING SPRINKLES NORTH AND WEST OF I-495.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. DIMINISHING WIND.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...CIGS/VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR/IFR IN RAIN/FOG.
SOUTH WIND AT 2000 FEET INCREASES TO 60-65 KNOTS ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN LATE NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AND MAY GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND
OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THAT AREA. CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVE TO VFR
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT NIGHT AND SHOULD
GENERATE BRIEF MVFR IN SHOWERS. WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SSW TO WSW WITH
THE WIND SHIFT.

TUESDAY...VFR. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN MASS/RI

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE THRU SATURDAY.

TODAY...WE CONVERTED GALE WARNINGS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR
ALL WATERS. EXPECT WIND GUSTS TODAY WILL FALL JUST SHY OF GALES
WITH NW GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 30 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH SPEEDS DROPPING BELOW 20
KT LATE TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...EXPECT INCREASING SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS DECENT
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN STILL WARM SST...
GOOD MIXING OVER WATER SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT WITH MARGINAL
GALES POSSIBLE BY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SAT NIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO 35 KNOTS DURING
THE DAY AND THEN DIMINISH IN THE EVENING. SEAS 5-8 FEET WILL
DIMINISH IN THE EVENING.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...A WARM FRONT MOVES UP ACROSS THE WATERS. VSBYS
WILL LOWER TO 1-3 MILES IN RAIN AND FOG STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT
CONTINUING INTO THE MORNING. STRONG SOUTH WINDS...ROUGHLY 60-65
KNOTS...AT 2000 FEET ALTITUDE WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SOME OF THIS WIND MAY BE
DRAWN TO THE SURFACE IN HEAVIER BURSTS OF RAIN. AT THE
LEAST...SOUTH WINDS WILL BE ON THE HIGH END OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS AT OR NEAR GALE. THIS WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 5-10
FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.

TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST NEAR SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.
SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH BUT REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE EXPOSED
WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ230-
     232>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ231-251-
     255-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 211200
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
700 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BLUSTERY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS TODAY. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE SATURDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...THEN A SIGNIFICANT
WARM-UP IS IN STORE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF RAIN. A COASTAL STORM MAY AFFECT THE
REGION SOMETIME DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT IT IS UNCERTAIN
HOW CLOSE IT WILL TRACK TO NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
LAST IMPULSE DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD LONGWAVE TROF IS
MOVING SE OF THE REGION THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO NOSE
OVER FROM THE SW. EXPECT THE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...AND IN SPITE OF THIS...TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN WELL ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL. FORECAST ON
TRACK...SO ADJUSTMENTS THIS MORNING ARE MINOR.

MID LEVEL TROF AND CORE OF COLD AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO NEW ENG
TODAY BUT COLUMN IS VERY DRY SO EXPECT MOSUNNY SKIES. UNSEASONABLY
COLD CONDITIONS AS 850 MB TEMPS -13/14C WHICH TRANSLATES TO MAXES
UPPER 20S NW HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 30S COASTAL PLAIN. WIND WILL BE
A FACTOR AS PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GOOD MIXING SUPPORTS NW WIND
GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH WHICH WILL MAKE IT FEEL CONSIDERABLY COLDER IN
THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
CENTER OF HIGH PRES MOVES TO THE MID ATLC COAST BUT RIDGE AXIS
BUILDS INTO NEW ENG WHICH WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WIND AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. GIVEN VERY DRY
AIRMASS IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT AS DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
DEVELOPS. MINS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE TEENS...EXCEPT LOWER 20S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOW PROB FOR SOME SINGLE NUMBER MIN
TEMPS W MA AND SW NH.

SATURDAY...
HIGH PRES BUILDS S OF NEW ENG WITH SUNSHINE GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS AS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE WEST. INCREASING SW FLOW BRINGS MILDER AIR
INTO SNE AS PRONOUNCED LOW AND MID LEVEL WARMING OCCURS. AFTER A
RATHER COLD START...TEMPS WILL RECOVER INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S. 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS BY LATE DAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO
GUSTY SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS CONTINUING TO SHOW
MODERATE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MID TERM...A GENERAL BLEND WILL BE
USED AS A BASELINE. ITS NOT UNTIL LATER ABOUT MID WEEK THAT THE
STRONGEST DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS EVEN AMONG
ENSEMBLES/MEANS...SO CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON-TUE REMAINS RELATIVELY
HIGH WHILE CONFIDENCE BECOMES LOW FROM MID NEXT WEEK THROUGH THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY PERIOD.

THE ISSUE IS LIKELY THE SHIFTING PATTERN THROUGH THE
PERIOD...STARTING WITH BUILDING RIDGE SUN-MON AS PHASING NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES DEVELOP INTO OCCLUDING SYSTEM AROUND THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS DEVELOPING TROF IS THEN EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DEEPEN AND DIG INTO A SLOWER LONGWAVE TROF TO THE
W...SIMILAR...THOUGH NOT AS COLD AS THIS WEEK/S DEEP TROUGH BUT
WITH THE AXIS FURTHER TO THE W. THEREFORE...TIME-MEAN JET REMAINS
SOUTHWESTERLY AND WARMING UNTIL THE CORE CAN SLIDE TO THE E LATER
IN THE WEEK. AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THAT THIS
SUGGEST THE NEAR NORMAL TO WARM WEATHER CONTINUES UNTIL A COOLING
TREND OCCURS LATER IN THE WEEK.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN EVENING...
SFC WARM FRONT WILL BE NOSING IN FROM THE W WHILE SHIFTING TO THE
N WITH TIME TOWARD 12Z SUN. NOTE MODEST MID LVL ISENTROPIC LIFT
WITH SOME MOISTURE SUGGESTING LOW END CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP
ESPECIALLY N OF THE MA PIKE AND W OF I-495. TIMING WILL BE THE KEY
HERE...AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT IF THE CLOUDS BUILD IN
TOO QUICKLY TEMPS MAY REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING WHILE
ALLOWANCE FOR MORE COOLING SUGGESTS THAT SFC TEMPS MAY BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. THEREFORE...MAY HAVE TO MONITOR FOR LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN...IF THE TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S
LIGHT ICING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT AGAIN TOTAL RAINFALL
WOULD BE LIGHT AND TEMPS MAY PRECLUDE ANY IMPACTS. WILL NEED TO
WATCH THIS AS WE APPROACH. OTHERWISE SUN...WARMING EXPECTED WITH
AREAS REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY LATE IN THE DAY IN SPITE
OF INCREASING CLOUDS. DWPTS ALSO RISE AS WELL.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
OCCLUDING LOW PRES TO THE W WILL PUSH 60-65 KT LLJ THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MON. THIS WILL BE
COINCIDENT WITH 1.0 INCH PWATS /ABOUT 2 STD DEVIATIONS FROM
NORMAL/. THEREFORE...EXPECT SOME WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH MODEST
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AS K VALUES HOVER AROUND 30...SUGGESTING HEAVY
RAIN. THIS COULD ALSO YIELD SOME STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A
FINE-LINE DEVELOPMENT WHICH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. OVERALL
RAINFALL VALUES OF 0.5-1.0 INCHES EXPECTED...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. AFTER A LULL THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS CONTINUES INTO MON
EVENING AS THE UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE PIVOTS THROUGH. MILD WX
CONTINUES AS HIGHS COULD APPROACH THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F.

TUE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BRIEFLY FOR TUE. WARM TEMPS STILL EXPECTED AS
THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR REMAINS TO THE W. EXPECT HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

WED-WED NIGHT...
STILL UNCERTAINTY HERE...BUT WITH STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTHEAST...A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRES MAY PASS JUST CLOSE
ENOUGH THE 40/70 BENCHMARK TO INITIATE TROWAL BASED PRECIP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND. REGARDING THERMAL PROFILES...WHICH
ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE GIVEN BOTH OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ARE ONLY RECENTLY CONVERGING ON THIS...TEMPS APPROACHING -6C TO
-10C AT H85 SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTERY PRECIP IN THE
INTERIOR...BUT MAY BE TOO WARM ALONG THE COAST. STILL TOO
UNCERTAIN HERE TO MAKE ANY CALLS...BUT WORTH WATCHING GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPLICATIONS.

THU-FRI...
DEPENDENT ON THE FINAL TIMING TRACK OF THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM...HIGH
PRES WOULD FOLLOW FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...WITH COLDER DRIER AIR
BUILDING IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH 12Z UPDATE.

TODAY...
VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS TO 25 KT.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH DIMINISHING WIND.

SATURDAY...VFR. INCREASING SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO
25-30 KT DEVELOPING IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CLOUDS MOVE IN AT NIGHT...BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN LIGHT
SPRINKLES ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. COULD BE LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE/FREEZING SPRINKLES NORTH AND WEST OF I-495.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. DIMINISHING WIND.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...CIGS/VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR/IFR IN RAIN/FOG.
SOUTH WIND AT 2000 FEET INCREASES TO 60-65 KNOTS ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN LATE NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AND MAY GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND
OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THAT AREA. CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVE TO VFR
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT NIGHT AND SHOULD
GENERATE BRIEF MVFR IN SHOWERS. WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SSW TO WSW WITH
THE WIND SHIFT.

TUESDAY...VFR. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN MASS/RI

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE THRU SATURDAY.

TODAY...WE CONVERTED GALE WARNINGS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR
ALL WATERS. EXPECT WIND GUSTS TODAY WILL FALL JUST SHY OF GALES
WITH NW GUSTS TO 30 KT.

TONIGHT...WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH SPEEDS DROPPING BELOW 20
KT LATE TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...EXPECT INCREASING SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS DECENT
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN STILL WARM SST...
GOOD MIXING OVER WATER SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT WITH MARGINAL
GALES POSSIBLE BY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SAT NIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO 35 KNOTS DURING
THE DAY AND THEN DIMINISH IN THE EVENING. SEAS 5-8 FEET WILL
DIMINISH IN THE EVENING.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...A WARM FRONT MOVES UP ACROSS THE WATERS. VSBYS
WILL LOWER TO 1-3 MILES IN RAIN AND FOG STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT
CONTINUING INTO THE MORNING. STRONG SOUTH WINDS...ROUGHLY 60-65
KNOTS...AT 2000 FEET ALTITUDE WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SOME OF THIS WIND MAY BE
DRAWN TO THE SURFACE IN HEAVIER BURSTS OF RAIN. AT THE
LEAST...SOUTH WINDS WILL BE ON THE HIGH END OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS AT OR NEAR GALE. THIS WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 5-10
FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.

TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST NEAR SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.
SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH BUT REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE EXPOSED
WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ230-
     232>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ231-251-
     255-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC/DOODY
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 211200
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
700 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BLUSTERY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS TODAY. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE SATURDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...THEN A SIGNIFICANT
WARM-UP IS IN STORE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF RAIN. A COASTAL STORM MAY AFFECT THE
REGION SOMETIME DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT IT IS UNCERTAIN
HOW CLOSE IT WILL TRACK TO NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
LAST IMPULSE DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD LONGWAVE TROF IS
MOVING SE OF THE REGION THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO NOSE
OVER FROM THE SW. EXPECT THE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...AND IN SPITE OF THIS...TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN WELL ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL. FORECAST ON
TRACK...SO ADJUSTMENTS THIS MORNING ARE MINOR.

MID LEVEL TROF AND CORE OF COLD AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO NEW ENG
TODAY BUT COLUMN IS VERY DRY SO EXPECT MOSUNNY SKIES. UNSEASONABLY
COLD CONDITIONS AS 850 MB TEMPS -13/14C WHICH TRANSLATES TO MAXES
UPPER 20S NW HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 30S COASTAL PLAIN. WIND WILL BE
A FACTOR AS PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GOOD MIXING SUPPORTS NW WIND
GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH WHICH WILL MAKE IT FEEL CONSIDERABLY COLDER IN
THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
CENTER OF HIGH PRES MOVES TO THE MID ATLC COAST BUT RIDGE AXIS
BUILDS INTO NEW ENG WHICH WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WIND AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. GIVEN VERY DRY
AIRMASS IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT AS DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
DEVELOPS. MINS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE TEENS...EXCEPT LOWER 20S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOW PROB FOR SOME SINGLE NUMBER MIN
TEMPS W MA AND SW NH.

SATURDAY...
HIGH PRES BUILDS S OF NEW ENG WITH SUNSHINE GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS AS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE WEST. INCREASING SW FLOW BRINGS MILDER AIR
INTO SNE AS PRONOUNCED LOW AND MID LEVEL WARMING OCCURS. AFTER A
RATHER COLD START...TEMPS WILL RECOVER INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S. 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS BY LATE DAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO
GUSTY SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS CONTINUING TO SHOW
MODERATE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MID TERM...A GENERAL BLEND WILL BE
USED AS A BASELINE. ITS NOT UNTIL LATER ABOUT MID WEEK THAT THE
STRONGEST DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS EVEN AMONG
ENSEMBLES/MEANS...SO CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON-TUE REMAINS RELATIVELY
HIGH WHILE CONFIDENCE BECOMES LOW FROM MID NEXT WEEK THROUGH THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY PERIOD.

THE ISSUE IS LIKELY THE SHIFTING PATTERN THROUGH THE
PERIOD...STARTING WITH BUILDING RIDGE SUN-MON AS PHASING NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES DEVELOP INTO OCCLUDING SYSTEM AROUND THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS DEVELOPING TROF IS THEN EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DEEPEN AND DIG INTO A SLOWER LONGWAVE TROF TO THE
W...SIMILAR...THOUGH NOT AS COLD AS THIS WEEK/S DEEP TROUGH BUT
WITH THE AXIS FURTHER TO THE W. THEREFORE...TIME-MEAN JET REMAINS
SOUTHWESTERLY AND WARMING UNTIL THE CORE CAN SLIDE TO THE E LATER
IN THE WEEK. AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THAT THIS
SUGGEST THE NEAR NORMAL TO WARM WEATHER CONTINUES UNTIL A COOLING
TREND OCCURS LATER IN THE WEEK.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN EVENING...
SFC WARM FRONT WILL BE NOSING IN FROM THE W WHILE SHIFTING TO THE
N WITH TIME TOWARD 12Z SUN. NOTE MODEST MID LVL ISENTROPIC LIFT
WITH SOME MOISTURE SUGGESTING LOW END CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP
ESPECIALLY N OF THE MA PIKE AND W OF I-495. TIMING WILL BE THE KEY
HERE...AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT IF THE CLOUDS BUILD IN
TOO QUICKLY TEMPS MAY REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING WHILE
ALLOWANCE FOR MORE COOLING SUGGESTS THAT SFC TEMPS MAY BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. THEREFORE...MAY HAVE TO MONITOR FOR LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN...IF THE TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S
LIGHT ICING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT AGAIN TOTAL RAINFALL
WOULD BE LIGHT AND TEMPS MAY PRECLUDE ANY IMPACTS. WILL NEED TO
WATCH THIS AS WE APPROACH. OTHERWISE SUN...WARMING EXPECTED WITH
AREAS REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY LATE IN THE DAY IN SPITE
OF INCREASING CLOUDS. DWPTS ALSO RISE AS WELL.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
OCCLUDING LOW PRES TO THE W WILL PUSH 60-65 KT LLJ THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MON. THIS WILL BE
COINCIDENT WITH 1.0 INCH PWATS /ABOUT 2 STD DEVIATIONS FROM
NORMAL/. THEREFORE...EXPECT SOME WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH MODEST
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AS K VALUES HOVER AROUND 30...SUGGESTING HEAVY
RAIN. THIS COULD ALSO YIELD SOME STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A
FINE-LINE DEVELOPMENT WHICH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. OVERALL
RAINFALL VALUES OF 0.5-1.0 INCHES EXPECTED...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. AFTER A LULL THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS CONTINUES INTO MON
EVENING AS THE UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE PIVOTS THROUGH. MILD WX
CONTINUES AS HIGHS COULD APPROACH THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F.

TUE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BRIEFLY FOR TUE. WARM TEMPS STILL EXPECTED AS
THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR REMAINS TO THE W. EXPECT HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

WED-WED NIGHT...
STILL UNCERTAINTY HERE...BUT WITH STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTHEAST...A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRES MAY PASS JUST CLOSE
ENOUGH THE 40/70 BENCHMARK TO INITIATE TROWAL BASED PRECIP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND. REGARDING THERMAL PROFILES...WHICH
ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE GIVEN BOTH OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ARE ONLY RECENTLY CONVERGING ON THIS...TEMPS APPROACHING -6C TO
-10C AT H85 SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTERY PRECIP IN THE
INTERIOR...BUT MAY BE TOO WARM ALONG THE COAST. STILL TOO
UNCERTAIN HERE TO MAKE ANY CALLS...BUT WORTH WATCHING GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPLICATIONS.

THU-FRI...
DEPENDENT ON THE FINAL TIMING TRACK OF THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM...HIGH
PRES WOULD FOLLOW FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...WITH COLDER DRIER AIR
BUILDING IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH 12Z UPDATE.

TODAY...
VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS TO 25 KT.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH DIMINISHING WIND.

SATURDAY...VFR. INCREASING SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO
25-30 KT DEVELOPING IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CLOUDS MOVE IN AT NIGHT...BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN LIGHT
SPRINKLES ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. COULD BE LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE/FREEZING SPRINKLES NORTH AND WEST OF I-495.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. DIMINISHING WIND.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...CIGS/VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR/IFR IN RAIN/FOG.
SOUTH WIND AT 2000 FEET INCREASES TO 60-65 KNOTS ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN LATE NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AND MAY GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND
OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THAT AREA. CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVE TO VFR
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT NIGHT AND SHOULD
GENERATE BRIEF MVFR IN SHOWERS. WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SSW TO WSW WITH
THE WIND SHIFT.

TUESDAY...VFR. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN MASS/RI

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE THRU SATURDAY.

TODAY...WE CONVERTED GALE WARNINGS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR
ALL WATERS. EXPECT WIND GUSTS TODAY WILL FALL JUST SHY OF GALES
WITH NW GUSTS TO 30 KT.

TONIGHT...WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH SPEEDS DROPPING BELOW 20
KT LATE TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...EXPECT INCREASING SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS DECENT
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN STILL WARM SST...
GOOD MIXING OVER WATER SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT WITH MARGINAL
GALES POSSIBLE BY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SAT NIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO 35 KNOTS DURING
THE DAY AND THEN DIMINISH IN THE EVENING. SEAS 5-8 FEET WILL
DIMINISH IN THE EVENING.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...A WARM FRONT MOVES UP ACROSS THE WATERS. VSBYS
WILL LOWER TO 1-3 MILES IN RAIN AND FOG STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT
CONTINUING INTO THE MORNING. STRONG SOUTH WINDS...ROUGHLY 60-65
KNOTS...AT 2000 FEET ALTITUDE WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SOME OF THIS WIND MAY BE
DRAWN TO THE SURFACE IN HEAVIER BURSTS OF RAIN. AT THE
LEAST...SOUTH WINDS WILL BE ON THE HIGH END OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS AT OR NEAR GALE. THIS WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 5-10
FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.

TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST NEAR SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.
SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH BUT REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE EXPOSED
WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ230-
     232>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ231-251-
     255-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC/DOODY
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 210924
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
424 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BLUSTERY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS TODAY. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE SATURDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...THEN A SIGNIFICANT
WARM-UP IS IN STORE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF RAIN. A COASTAL STORM MAY AFFECT THE
REGION SOMETIME DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT IT IS UNCERTAIN
HOW CLOSE IT WILL TRACK TO NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID LEVEL TROF AND CORE OF COLD AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO NEW ENG
TODAY BUT COLUMN IS VERY DRY SO EXPECT MOSUNNY SKIES. UNSEASONABLY
COLD CONDITIONS AS 850 MB TEMPS -13/14C WHICH TRANSLATES TO MAXES
UPPER 20S NW HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 30S COASTAL PLAIN. WIND WILL BE
A FACTOR AS PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GOOD MIXING SUPPORTS NW WIND
GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH WHICH WILL MAKE IT FEEL CONSIDERABLY COLDER IN
THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
CENTER OF HIGH PRES MOVES TO THE MID ATLC COAST BUT RIDGE AXIS
BUILDS INTO NEW ENG WHICH WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WIND AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. GIVEN VERY DRY
AIRMASS IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT AS DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
DEVELOPS. MINS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE TEENS...EXCEPT LOWER 20S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOW PROB FOR SOME SINGLE NUMBER MIN
TEMPS W MA AND SW NH.

SATURDAY...
HIGH PRES BUILDS S OF NEW ENG WITH SUNSHINE GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS AS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE WEST. INCREASING SW FLOW BRINGS MILDER AIR
INTO SNE AS PRONOUNCED LOW AND MID LEVEL WARMING OCCURS. AFTER A
RATHER COLD START...TEMPS WILL RECOVER INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S. 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS BY LATE DAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO
GUSTY SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS CONTINUING TO SHOW
MODERATE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MID TERM...A GENERAL BLEND WILL BE
USED AS A BASELINE. ITS NOT UNTIL LATER ABOUT MID WEEK THAT THE
STRONGEST DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS EVEN AMONG
ENSEMBLES/MEANS...SO CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON-TUE REMAINS RELATIVELY
HIGH WHILE CONFIDENCE BECOMES LOW FROM MID NEXT WEEK THROUGH THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY PERIOD.

THE ISSUE IS LIKELY THE SHIFTING PATTERN THROUGH THE
PERIOD...STARTING WITH BUILDING RIDGE SUN-MON AS PHASING NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES DEVELOP INTO OCCLUDING SYSTEM AROUND THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS DEVELOPING TROF IS THEN EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DEEPEN AND DIG INTO A SLOWER LONGWAVE TROF TO THE
W...SIMILAR...THOUGH NOT AS COLD AS THIS WEEK/S DEEP TROUGH BUT
WITH THE AXIS FURTHER TO THE W. THEREFORE...TIME-MEAN JET REMAINS
SOUTHWESTERLY AND WARMING UNTIL THE CORE CAN SLIDE TO THE E LATER
IN THE WEEK. AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THAT THIS
SUGGEST THE NEAR NORMAL TO WARM WEATHER CONTINUES UNTIL A COOLING
TREND OCCURS LATER IN THE WEEK.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN EVENING...
SFC WARM FRONT WILL BE NOSING IN FROM THE W WHILE SHIFTING TO THE
N WITH TIME TOWARD 12Z SUN. NOTE MODEST MID LVL ISENTROPIC LIFT
WITH SOME MOISTURE SUGGESTING LOW END CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP
ESPECIALLY N OF THE MA PIKE AND W OF I-495. TIMING WILL BE THE KEY
HERE...AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT IF THE CLOUDS BUILD IN
TOO QUICKLY TEMPS MAY REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING WHILE
ALLOWANCE FOR MORE COOLING SUGGESTS THAT SFC TEMPS MAY BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. THEREFORE...MAY HAVE TO MONITOR FOR LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN...IF THE TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S
LIGHT ICING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT AGAIN TOTAL RAINFALL
WOULD BE LIGHT AND TEMPS MAY PRECLUDE ANY IMPACTS. WILL NEED TO
WATCH THIS AS WE APPROACH. OTHERWISE SUN...WARMING EXPECTED WITH
AREAS REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY LATE IN THE DAY IN SPITE
OF INCREASING CLOUDS. DWPTS ALSO RISE AS WELL.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
OCCLUDING LOW PRES TO THE W WILL PUSH 60-65 KT LLJ THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MON. THIS WILL BE
COINCIDENT WITH 1.0 INCH PWATS /ABOUT 2 STD DEVIATIONS FROM
NORMAL/. THEREFORE...EXPECT SOME WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH MODEST
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AS K VALUES HOVER AROUND 30...SUGGESTING HEAVY
RAIN. THIS COULD ALSO YIELD SOME STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A
FINE-LINE DEVELOPMENT WHICH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. OVERALL
RAINFALL VALUES OF 0.5-1.0 INCHES EXPECTED...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. AFTER A LULL THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS CONTINUES INTO MON
EVENING AS THE UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE PIVOTS THROUGH. MILD WX
CONTINUES AS HIGHS COULD APPROACH THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F.

TUE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BRIEFLY FOR TUE. WARM TEMPS STILL EXPECTED AS
THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR REMAINS TO THE W. EXPECT HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

WED-WED NIGHT...
STILL UNCERTAINTY HERE...BUT WITH STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTHEAST...A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRES MAY PASS JUST CLOSE
ENOUGH THE 40/70 BENCHMARK TO INITIATE TROWAL BASED PRECIP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND. REGARDING THERMAL PROFILES...WHICH
ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE GIVEN BOTH OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ARE ONLY RECENTLY CONVERGING ON THIS...TEMPS APPROACHING -6C TO
-10C AT H85 SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTERY PRECIP IN THE
INTERIOR...BUT MAY BE TOO WARM ALONG THE COAST. STILL TOO
UNCERTAIN HERE TO MAKE ANY CALLS...BUT WORTH WATCHING GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPLICATIONS.

THU-FRI...
DEPENDENT ON THE FINAL TIMING TRACK OF THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM...HIGH
PRES WOULD FOLLOW FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...WITH COLDER DRIER AIR
BUILDING IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS TO 25 KT.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH DIMINISHING WIND.

SATURDAY...VFR. INCREASING SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO
25-30 KT DEVELOPING IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CLOUDS MOVE IN AT NIGHT...BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN LIGHT
SPRINKLES ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. COULD BE LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE/FREEZING SPRINKLES NORTH AND WEST OF I-495.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. DIMINISHING WIND.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...CIGS/VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR/IFR IN RAIN/FOG.
SOUTH WIND AT 2000 FEET INCREASES TO 60-65 KNOTS ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN LATE NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AND MAY GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND
OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THAT AREA. CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVE TO VFR
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT NIGHT AND SHOULD
GENERATE BRIEF MVFR IN SHOWERS. WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SSW TO WSW WITH
THE WIND SHIFT.

TUESDAY...VFR. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN MASS/RI

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE THRU SATURDAY.

TODAY...WE CONVERTED GALE WARNINGS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR
ALL WATERS. EXPECT WIND GUSTS TODAY WILL FALL JUST SHY OF GALES
WITH NW GUSTS TO 30 KT.

TONIGHT...WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH SPEEDS DROPPING BELOW 20
KT LATE TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...EXPECT INCREASING SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS DECENT
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN STILL WARM SST...
GOOD MIXING OVER WATER SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT WITH MARGINAL
GALES POSSIBLE BY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SAT NIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO 35 KNOTS DURING
THE DAY AND THEN DIMINISH IN THE EVENING. SEAS 5-8 FEET WILL
DIMINISH IN THE EVENING.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...A WARM FRONT MOVES UP ACROSS THE WATERS. VSBYS
WILL LOWER TO 1-3 MILES IN RAIN AND FOG STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT
CONTINUING INTO THE MORNING. STRONG SOUTH WINDS...ROUGHLY 60-65
KNOTS...AT 2000 FEET ALTITUDE WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SOME OF THIS WIND MAY BE
DRAWN TO THE SURFACE IN HEAVIER BURSTS OF RAIN. AT THE
LEAST...SOUTH WINDS WILL BE ON THE HIGH END OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS AT OR NEAR GALE. THIS WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 5-10
FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.

TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST NEAR SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.
SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH BUT REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE EXPOSED
WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ230-
     232>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ231-251-
     255-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 210924
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
424 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BLUSTERY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS TODAY. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE SATURDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...THEN A SIGNIFICANT
WARM-UP IS IN STORE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF RAIN. A COASTAL STORM MAY AFFECT THE
REGION SOMETIME DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT IT IS UNCERTAIN
HOW CLOSE IT WILL TRACK TO NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID LEVEL TROF AND CORE OF COLD AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO NEW ENG
TODAY BUT COLUMN IS VERY DRY SO EXPECT MOSUNNY SKIES. UNSEASONABLY
COLD CONDITIONS AS 850 MB TEMPS -13/14C WHICH TRANSLATES TO MAXES
UPPER 20S NW HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 30S COASTAL PLAIN. WIND WILL BE
A FACTOR AS PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GOOD MIXING SUPPORTS NW WIND
GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH WHICH WILL MAKE IT FEEL CONSIDERABLY COLDER IN
THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
CENTER OF HIGH PRES MOVES TO THE MID ATLC COAST BUT RIDGE AXIS
BUILDS INTO NEW ENG WHICH WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WIND AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. GIVEN VERY DRY
AIRMASS IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT AS DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
DEVELOPS. MINS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE TEENS...EXCEPT LOWER 20S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOW PROB FOR SOME SINGLE NUMBER MIN
TEMPS W MA AND SW NH.

SATURDAY...
HIGH PRES BUILDS S OF NEW ENG WITH SUNSHINE GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS AS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE WEST. INCREASING SW FLOW BRINGS MILDER AIR
INTO SNE AS PRONOUNCED LOW AND MID LEVEL WARMING OCCURS. AFTER A
RATHER COLD START...TEMPS WILL RECOVER INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S. 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS BY LATE DAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO
GUSTY SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS CONTINUING TO SHOW
MODERATE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MID TERM...A GENERAL BLEND WILL BE
USED AS A BASELINE. ITS NOT UNTIL LATER ABOUT MID WEEK THAT THE
STRONGEST DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS EVEN AMONG
ENSEMBLES/MEANS...SO CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON-TUE REMAINS RELATIVELY
HIGH WHILE CONFIDENCE BECOMES LOW FROM MID NEXT WEEK THROUGH THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY PERIOD.

THE ISSUE IS LIKELY THE SHIFTING PATTERN THROUGH THE
PERIOD...STARTING WITH BUILDING RIDGE SUN-MON AS PHASING NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES DEVELOP INTO OCCLUDING SYSTEM AROUND THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS DEVELOPING TROF IS THEN EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DEEPEN AND DIG INTO A SLOWER LONGWAVE TROF TO THE
W...SIMILAR...THOUGH NOT AS COLD AS THIS WEEK/S DEEP TROUGH BUT
WITH THE AXIS FURTHER TO THE W. THEREFORE...TIME-MEAN JET REMAINS
SOUTHWESTERLY AND WARMING UNTIL THE CORE CAN SLIDE TO THE E LATER
IN THE WEEK. AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THAT THIS
SUGGEST THE NEAR NORMAL TO WARM WEATHER CONTINUES UNTIL A COOLING
TREND OCCURS LATER IN THE WEEK.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN EVENING...
SFC WARM FRONT WILL BE NOSING IN FROM THE W WHILE SHIFTING TO THE
N WITH TIME TOWARD 12Z SUN. NOTE MODEST MID LVL ISENTROPIC LIFT
WITH SOME MOISTURE SUGGESTING LOW END CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP
ESPECIALLY N OF THE MA PIKE AND W OF I-495. TIMING WILL BE THE KEY
HERE...AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT IF THE CLOUDS BUILD IN
TOO QUICKLY TEMPS MAY REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING WHILE
ALLOWANCE FOR MORE COOLING SUGGESTS THAT SFC TEMPS MAY BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. THEREFORE...MAY HAVE TO MONITOR FOR LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN...IF THE TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S
LIGHT ICING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT AGAIN TOTAL RAINFALL
WOULD BE LIGHT AND TEMPS MAY PRECLUDE ANY IMPACTS. WILL NEED TO
WATCH THIS AS WE APPROACH. OTHERWISE SUN...WARMING EXPECTED WITH
AREAS REACHING THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S BY LATE IN THE DAY IN SPITE
OF INCREASING CLOUDS. DWPTS ALSO RISE AS WELL.

SUN NIGHT INTO MON...
OCCLUDING LOW PRES TO THE W WILL PUSH 60-65 KT LLJ THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MON. THIS WILL BE
COINCIDENT WITH 1.0 INCH PWATS /ABOUT 2 STD DEVIATIONS FROM
NORMAL/. THEREFORE...EXPECT SOME WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH MODEST
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AS K VALUES HOVER AROUND 30...SUGGESTING HEAVY
RAIN. THIS COULD ALSO YIELD SOME STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A
FINE-LINE DEVELOPMENT WHICH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. OVERALL
RAINFALL VALUES OF 0.5-1.0 INCHES EXPECTED...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. AFTER A LULL THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS CONTINUES INTO MON
EVENING AS THE UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE PIVOTS THROUGH. MILD WX
CONTINUES AS HIGHS COULD APPROACH THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F.

TUE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BRIEFLY FOR TUE. WARM TEMPS STILL EXPECTED AS
THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR REMAINS TO THE W. EXPECT HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

WED-WED NIGHT...
STILL UNCERTAINTY HERE...BUT WITH STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTHEAST...A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRES MAY PASS JUST CLOSE
ENOUGH THE 40/70 BENCHMARK TO INITIATE TROWAL BASED PRECIP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND. REGARDING THERMAL PROFILES...WHICH
ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE GIVEN BOTH OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ARE ONLY RECENTLY CONVERGING ON THIS...TEMPS APPROACHING -6C TO
-10C AT H85 SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTERY PRECIP IN THE
INTERIOR...BUT MAY BE TOO WARM ALONG THE COAST. STILL TOO
UNCERTAIN HERE TO MAKE ANY CALLS...BUT WORTH WATCHING GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPLICATIONS.

THU-FRI...
DEPENDENT ON THE FINAL TIMING TRACK OF THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM...HIGH
PRES WOULD FOLLOW FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...WITH COLDER DRIER AIR
BUILDING IN FROM THE NW.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS TO 25 KT.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH DIMINISHING WIND.

SATURDAY...VFR. INCREASING SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO
25-30 KT DEVELOPING IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CLOUDS MOVE IN AT NIGHT...BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN LIGHT
SPRINKLES ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. COULD BE LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE/FREEZING SPRINKLES NORTH AND WEST OF I-495.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. DIMINISHING WIND.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...CIGS/VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR/IFR IN RAIN/FOG.
SOUTH WIND AT 2000 FEET INCREASES TO 60-65 KNOTS ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN LATE NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AND MAY GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND
OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THAT AREA. CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVE TO VFR
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT NIGHT AND SHOULD
GENERATE BRIEF MVFR IN SHOWERS. WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SSW TO WSW WITH
THE WIND SHIFT.

TUESDAY...VFR. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN MASS/RI

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE THRU SATURDAY.

TODAY...WE CONVERTED GALE WARNINGS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR
ALL WATERS. EXPECT WIND GUSTS TODAY WILL FALL JUST SHY OF GALES
WITH NW GUSTS TO 30 KT.

TONIGHT...WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH SPEEDS DROPPING BELOW 20
KT LATE TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...EXPECT INCREASING SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS DECENT
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN STILL WARM SST...
GOOD MIXING OVER WATER SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT WITH MARGINAL
GALES POSSIBLE BY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SAT NIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO 35 KNOTS DURING
THE DAY AND THEN DIMINISH IN THE EVENING. SEAS 5-8 FEET WILL
DIMINISH IN THE EVENING.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...A WARM FRONT MOVES UP ACROSS THE WATERS. VSBYS
WILL LOWER TO 1-3 MILES IN RAIN AND FOG STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT
CONTINUING INTO THE MORNING. STRONG SOUTH WINDS...ROUGHLY 60-65
KNOTS...AT 2000 FEET ALTITUDE WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SOME OF THIS WIND MAY BE
DRAWN TO THE SURFACE IN HEAVIER BURSTS OF RAIN. AT THE
LEAST...SOUTH WINDS WILL BE ON THE HIGH END OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS AT OR NEAR GALE. THIS WILL DRIVE SEAS TO 5-10
FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.

TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST NEAR SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.
SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH BUT REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE EXPOSED
WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ230-
     232>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ231-251-
     255-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 210810
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
310 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BLUSTERY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS TODAY. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE SATURDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...THEN A SIGNIFICANT
WARM-UP IS IN STORE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF RAIN. A COASTAL STORM MAY AFFECT THE
REGION SOMETIME DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT IT IS UNCERTAIN
HOW CLOSE IT WILL TRACK TO NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MID LEVEL TROF AND CORE OF COLD AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO NEW ENG
TODAY BUT COLUMN IS VERY DRY SO EXPECT MOSUNNY SKIES. UNSEASONABLY
COLD CONDITIONS AS 850 MB TEMPS -13/14C WHICH TRANSLATES TO MAXES
UPPER 20S NW HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 30S COASTAL PLAIN. WIND WILL BE
A FACTOR AS PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GOOD MIXING SUPPORTS NW WIND
GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH WHICH WILL MAKE IT FEEL CONSIDERABLY COLDER IN
THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
CENTER OF HIGH PRES MOVES TO THE MID ATLC COAST BUT RIDGE AXIS
BUILDS INTO NEW ENG WHICH WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WIND AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. GIVEN VERY DRY
AIRMASS IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT AS DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
DEVELOPS. MINS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE TEENS...EXCEPT LOWER 20S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOW PROB FOR SOME SINGLE NUMBER MIN
TEMPS W MA AND SW NH.

SATURDAY...
HIGH PRES BUILDS S OF NEW ENG WITH SUNSHINE GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS AS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE WEST. INCREASING SW FLOW BRINGS MILDER AIR
INTO SNE AS PRONOUNCED LOW AND MID LEVEL WARMING OCCURS. AFTER A
RATHER COLD START...TEMPS WILL RECOVER INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S. 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS BY LATE DAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO
GUSTY SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST BRINGS
HEIGHTS OVER NEW ENGLAND BACK TO NORMAL DURING THE WEEKEND AND ABOVE
NORMAL EARLY WEEK. SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE JUST OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST WILL DIG AS IT MOVES TO TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE BUILDING
RIDGE WILL THEN DEFLECT THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE NORTH WHERE IT MERGES
WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THIS MEANS A BROAD TROUGH FORMING OVER THE CENTER OF THE
NATION EARLY WEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS. THIS BROAD TROUGH
SLOWLY MOVES EAST TO NEW ENGLAND MID TO LATE WEEK.

FOR NEW ENGLAND THIS WOULD MEAN A WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND AND
MILD TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN COOLING TO BELOW NORMAL BY
THANKSGIVING.

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE ECWMF
IS THEN FASTER IN MIGRATING THE PLAINS TROUGH THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
AND OFF TO THE EAST WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS THE TROUGH AXIS TO OUR
WEST THROUGH THURSDAY. MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE
THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE DAILIES...

SATURDAY NIGHT...INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS AS A NORTHERN
STREAM COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. VERTICAL
DISTRIBUTION IS SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR PCPN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT
WARM ADVECTION LIFT IS NEGLIGIBLE. JET DYNAMICS IS QUESTIONABLE.
CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES. THE QUESTION OF PTYPE THEN
COMES UP.  TEMPS WILL BE STARTING OUT IN THE 30S AND MAY COOL A
LITTLE BELOW FREEZING BEFORE THE CLOUDS THICKEN. THIS WOULD CAUSE
SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FREEZING SPRINKLES.  THE BEST CHANCE
WOULD BE IN AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF I-495. BUT IF THE CLOUDS MOVE IN
AND THICKEN A LITTLE FASTER...TEMPS WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING AND
PCPN...IF ANY...WOULD BE LIGHT RAIN. WE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH A MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN AS NOTED
ABOVE.

SUNDAY...UPPER FLOW REMAINS WEST-EAST SO THAT THE NORTHERN COLD
FRONT IS DOUBTFUL TO MAKE IT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  EXPECT
ANY PRECIP TO MOVE OUT EARLY WITH CLOUDS BREAKING TO ALLOW SOME
SUNSHINE. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WARM A FEW DEGREES AND
SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY... THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH TO THE
GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A WARM FRONT NORTH TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.  A
STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTH JET WILL GENERATE FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT
AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION.  TIMING OF THIS JET WOULD INDICATE THE
LIFT ARRIVES AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY AFTER. WE EXPECT RAIN TO
DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND THIS TIME.  MODELS INDICATE
THE JET WILL BE 60-65 KNOTS AND COULD GENERATE SOME GUSTY WINDS
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. PRECIP WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO TOP OUT BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.0 INCHES WHICH WOULD BE A LITTLE OVER
1 STD DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL...SO TORRENTIAL RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED.

THE WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD DIMINISH THE COVERAGE OF THE RAIN TO SHOWERS.  THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...ENDING AS THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWINGS OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY...THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAST THE COLD FRONT
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.  THE GFS SOLUTION KEEPS A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND A STRONG JET OVERHEAD. THE COLD FRONT WOULD HAVE
DIFFICULTY MOVING EAST IN SUCH AN ENVIRONMENT. THE ECMWF SOLUTION
SHOWS A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT THAT WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MOVE THE
FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND OFF TO THE EAST. WE HAVE KEPT A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY IN EASTERN MASS BUT TRENDED TOWARD PARTIAL
CLEARING AND COOLER WEATHER.

WEDNESDAY-THANKSGIVING DAY...THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS
AMPLIFIES MIDWEEK...AND SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW. LOW PRESSURE WAVES
MOVING UP THE OFFSHORE COLD FRONT MAY KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
EASTERN MASS/RI ON WEDNESDAY BUT OTHERWISE WE HAVE CONTINUED THE
TREND TO COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER AS WE MOVE INTO THE HOLIDAY

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS TO 25 KT.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH DIMINISHING WIND.

SATURDAY...VFR. INCREASING SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO
25-30 KT DEVELOPING IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT...
CLOUDS MOVE IN AT NIGHT...BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN LIGHT
SPRINKLES ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. COULD BE LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE/FREEZING SPRINKLES NORTH AND WEST OF I-495.

SUNDAY...
VFR. DIMINISHING WIND.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...CIGS/VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR/IFR IN RAIN/FOG.
SOUTH WIND AT 2000 FEET INCREASES TO 60-65 KNOTS ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN LATE NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AND MAY GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND
OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THAT AREA. CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVE TO VFR
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT NIGHT AND SHOULD
GENERATE BRIEF MVFR IN SHOWERS. WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SSW TO WSW WITH
THE WIND SHIFT.

TUESDAY...VFR. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN MASS/RI

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE THRU SATURDAY.

TODAY...WE CONVERTED GALE WARNINGS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR
ALL WATERS. EXPECT WIND GUSTS TODAY WILL FALL JUST SHY OF GALES
WITH NW GUSTS TO 30 KT.

TONIGHT...WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH SPEEDS DROPPING BELOW 20
KT LATE TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...EXPECT INCREASING SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS DECENT
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN STILL WARM SST...
GOOD MIXING OVER WATER SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT WITH MARGINAL
GALES POSSIBLE BY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO 30 KNOTS DURING THE DAY
AND THEN DIMINISH IN THE EVENING. SEAS 5-8 FEET WILL DIMINISH IN THE
EVENING.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...A WARM FRONT MOVES UP ACROSS THE WATERS.
VSBYS WILL LOWER TO 1-3 MILES IN RAIN AND FOG STARTING AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE MORNING. STRONG SOUTH
WINDS...ROUGHLY 60-65 KNOTS...AT 2000 FEET ALTITUDE WILL MOVE OVER
THE WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SOME OF THIS
WIND MAY BE DRAWN TO THE SURFACE IN HEAVIER BURSTS OF RAIN. AT THE
LEAST...SOUTH WINDS WILL BE NEAR GALE FORCE FOR A TIME AND THEN
LINGER ABOVE 25 KNOTS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL DRIVE SEAS TO
5-10 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.

TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST NEAR SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.
SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH BUT REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE EXPOSED
WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ230-
     232>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ231-251-
     255-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 210810
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
310 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BLUSTERY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS TODAY. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE SATURDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...THEN A SIGNIFICANT
WARM-UP IS IN STORE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF RAIN. A COASTAL STORM MAY AFFECT THE
REGION SOMETIME DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT IT IS UNCERTAIN
HOW CLOSE IT WILL TRACK TO NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MID LEVEL TROF AND CORE OF COLD AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO NEW ENG
TODAY BUT COLUMN IS VERY DRY SO EXPECT MOSUNNY SKIES. UNSEASONABLY
COLD CONDITIONS AS 850 MB TEMPS -13/14C WHICH TRANSLATES TO MAXES
UPPER 20S NW HIGHER TERRAIN TO MID 30S COASTAL PLAIN. WIND WILL BE
A FACTOR AS PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GOOD MIXING SUPPORTS NW WIND
GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH WHICH WILL MAKE IT FEEL CONSIDERABLY COLDER IN
THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
CENTER OF HIGH PRES MOVES TO THE MID ATLC COAST BUT RIDGE AXIS
BUILDS INTO NEW ENG WHICH WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WIND AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. GIVEN VERY DRY
AIRMASS IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT AS DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
DEVELOPS. MINS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE TEENS...EXCEPT LOWER 20S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOW PROB FOR SOME SINGLE NUMBER MIN
TEMPS W MA AND SW NH.

SATURDAY...
HIGH PRES BUILDS S OF NEW ENG WITH SUNSHINE GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS AS LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE WEST. INCREASING SW FLOW BRINGS MILDER AIR
INTO SNE AS PRONOUNCED LOW AND MID LEVEL WARMING OCCURS. AFTER A
RATHER COLD START...TEMPS WILL RECOVER INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S. 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS BY LATE DAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO
GUSTY SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST BRINGS
HEIGHTS OVER NEW ENGLAND BACK TO NORMAL DURING THE WEEKEND AND ABOVE
NORMAL EARLY WEEK. SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE JUST OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST WILL DIG AS IT MOVES TO TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE BUILDING
RIDGE WILL THEN DEFLECT THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE NORTH WHERE IT MERGES
WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THIS MEANS A BROAD TROUGH FORMING OVER THE CENTER OF THE
NATION EARLY WEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS. THIS BROAD TROUGH
SLOWLY MOVES EAST TO NEW ENGLAND MID TO LATE WEEK.

FOR NEW ENGLAND THIS WOULD MEAN A WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND AND
MILD TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN COOLING TO BELOW NORMAL BY
THANKSGIVING.

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE ECWMF
IS THEN FASTER IN MIGRATING THE PLAINS TROUGH THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
AND OFF TO THE EAST WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS THE TROUGH AXIS TO OUR
WEST THROUGH THURSDAY. MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE
THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE DAILIES...

SATURDAY NIGHT...INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS AS A NORTHERN
STREAM COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. VERTICAL
DISTRIBUTION IS SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR PCPN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT
WARM ADVECTION LIFT IS NEGLIGIBLE. JET DYNAMICS IS QUESTIONABLE.
CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES. THE QUESTION OF PTYPE THEN
COMES UP.  TEMPS WILL BE STARTING OUT IN THE 30S AND MAY COOL A
LITTLE BELOW FREEZING BEFORE THE CLOUDS THICKEN. THIS WOULD CAUSE
SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FREEZING SPRINKLES.  THE BEST CHANCE
WOULD BE IN AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF I-495. BUT IF THE CLOUDS MOVE IN
AND THICKEN A LITTLE FASTER...TEMPS WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING AND
PCPN...IF ANY...WOULD BE LIGHT RAIN. WE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH A MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN AS NOTED
ABOVE.

SUNDAY...UPPER FLOW REMAINS WEST-EAST SO THAT THE NORTHERN COLD
FRONT IS DOUBTFUL TO MAKE IT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  EXPECT
ANY PRECIP TO MOVE OUT EARLY WITH CLOUDS BREAKING TO ALLOW SOME
SUNSHINE. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WARM A FEW DEGREES AND
SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY... THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH TO THE
GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A WARM FRONT NORTH TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.  A
STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTH JET WILL GENERATE FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT
AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION.  TIMING OF THIS JET WOULD INDICATE THE
LIFT ARRIVES AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY AFTER. WE EXPECT RAIN TO
DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND THIS TIME.  MODELS INDICATE
THE JET WILL BE 60-65 KNOTS AND COULD GENERATE SOME GUSTY WINDS
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. PRECIP WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO TOP OUT BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.0 INCHES WHICH WOULD BE A LITTLE OVER
1 STD DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL...SO TORRENTIAL RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED.

THE WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD DIMINISH THE COVERAGE OF THE RAIN TO SHOWERS.  THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...ENDING AS THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWINGS OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY...THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAST THE COLD FRONT
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.  THE GFS SOLUTION KEEPS A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND A STRONG JET OVERHEAD. THE COLD FRONT WOULD HAVE
DIFFICULTY MOVING EAST IN SUCH AN ENVIRONMENT. THE ECMWF SOLUTION
SHOWS A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT THAT WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MOVE THE
FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND OFF TO THE EAST. WE HAVE KEPT A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY IN EASTERN MASS BUT TRENDED TOWARD PARTIAL
CLEARING AND COOLER WEATHER.

WEDNESDAY-THANKSGIVING DAY...THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS
AMPLIFIES MIDWEEK...AND SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW. LOW PRESSURE WAVES
MOVING UP THE OFFSHORE COLD FRONT MAY KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
EASTERN MASS/RI ON WEDNESDAY BUT OTHERWISE WE HAVE CONTINUED THE
TREND TO COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER AS WE MOVE INTO THE HOLIDAY

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS TO 25 KT.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH DIMINISHING WIND.

SATURDAY...VFR. INCREASING SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO
25-30 KT DEVELOPING IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT...
CLOUDS MOVE IN AT NIGHT...BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN LIGHT
SPRINKLES ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. COULD BE LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE/FREEZING SPRINKLES NORTH AND WEST OF I-495.

SUNDAY...
VFR. DIMINISHING WIND.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...CIGS/VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR/IFR IN RAIN/FOG.
SOUTH WIND AT 2000 FEET INCREASES TO 60-65 KNOTS ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN LATE NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AND MAY GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND
OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THAT AREA. CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVE TO VFR
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT NIGHT AND SHOULD
GENERATE BRIEF MVFR IN SHOWERS. WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SSW TO WSW WITH
THE WIND SHIFT.

TUESDAY...VFR. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN MASS/RI

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE THRU SATURDAY.

TODAY...WE CONVERTED GALE WARNINGS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR
ALL WATERS. EXPECT WIND GUSTS TODAY WILL FALL JUST SHY OF GALES
WITH NW GUSTS TO 30 KT.

TONIGHT...WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH SPEEDS DROPPING BELOW 20
KT LATE TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...EXPECT INCREASING SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS DECENT
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN STILL WARM SST...
GOOD MIXING OVER WATER SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT WITH MARGINAL
GALES POSSIBLE BY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO 30 KNOTS DURING THE DAY
AND THEN DIMINISH IN THE EVENING. SEAS 5-8 FEET WILL DIMINISH IN THE
EVENING.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...A WARM FRONT MOVES UP ACROSS THE WATERS.
VSBYS WILL LOWER TO 1-3 MILES IN RAIN AND FOG STARTING AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE MORNING. STRONG SOUTH
WINDS...ROUGHLY 60-65 KNOTS...AT 2000 FEET ALTITUDE WILL MOVE OVER
THE WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SOME OF THIS
WIND MAY BE DRAWN TO THE SURFACE IN HEAVIER BURSTS OF RAIN. AT THE
LEAST...SOUTH WINDS WILL BE NEAR GALE FORCE FOR A TIME AND THEN
LINGER ABOVE 25 KNOTS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL DRIVE SEAS TO
5-10 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.

TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST NEAR SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.
SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH BUT REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE EXPOSED
WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ230-
     232>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ231-251-
     255-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 210550
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1250 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT DELIVERS A REINFORCING SURGE OF BLUSTERY AND
UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS. THE COLD WILL LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP IS IN STORE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT
IT WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF RAIN. COOLER WEATHER
RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1245 AM UPDATE...
AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN WILL BE
PUSHING OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR INDICATES A BRIEF
SHOWER/FLURRY POSSIBLE OVER ACK...OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FRIDAY...
COLD DAY BY LATE NOV STANDARDS WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S /NORMAL
HIGH AROUND 50/ AND A BRISK WNW WIND WILL YIELD WIND CHILLS IN THE
20S /TEENS HIGHER TERRAIN/! GEFS TEMP ANOMALIES INDICATE 850 TEMPS
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND 18Z FRI ARE ABOUT -2 STD WITH VALUES
AROUND -14C. SO DESPITE A WELL MIXED BLYR AND AT LEAST PARTIAL
SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT MU30S WILL BE OUR MAX AFTN
TEMPS FRI AFTN. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE BRISK WNW WINDS WILL MAKE
IT FEEL MUCH COLDER.


FRIDAY NIGHT...
DRY WEATHER PREVAILS BUT ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
TEENS EXCEPT 20S IN THE URBAN AREAS INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. NOT AS MUCH OF A WIND CHILL GIVEN THE WEAKENING PGRAD
WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRES APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST BRINGS
HEIGHTS OVER NEW ENGLAND BACK TO NORMAL DURING THE WEEKEND AND ABOVE
NORMAL EARLY WEEK. SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE JUST OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST WILL DIG AS IT MOVES TO TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE BUILDING
RIDGE WILL THEN DEFLECT THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE NORTH WHERE IT MERGES
WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THIS MEANS A BROAD TROUGH FORMING OVER THE CENTER OF THE
NATION EARLY WEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS. THIS BROAD TROUGH
SLOWLY MOVES EAST TO NEW ENGLAND MID TO LATE WEEK.

FOR NEW ENGLAND THIS WOULD MEAN A WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND AND
MILD TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN COOLING TO BELOW NORMAL BY
THANKSGIVING.

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE ECWMF
IS THEN FASTER IN MIGRATING THE PLAINS TROUGH THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
AND OFF TO THE EAST WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS THE TROUGH AXIS TO OUR
WEST THROUGH THURSDAY. MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE
THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE DAILIES...

SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THE DAY WITH THE
AXIS CROSSING DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD TURN THE WIND
SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON. INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT BUT EXPECT MOST
CLOUDS TO BE MID AND HIGH LEVEL. WITH THE DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT THE MIXING REACHES ONLY TO 950 MB WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC
TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

SATURDAY NIGHT...INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS AS A NORTHERN
STREAM COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. VERTICAL
DISTRIBUTION IS SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR PCPN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT
WARM ADVECTION LIFT IS NEGLIGIBLE. JET DYNAMICS IS QUESTIONABLE.
CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES. THE QUESTION OF PTYPE THEN
COMES UP.  TEMPS WILL BE STARTING OUT IN THE 30S AND MAY COOL A
LITTLE BELOW FREEZING BEFORE THE CLOUDS THICKEN. THIS WOULD CAUSE
SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FREEZING SPRINKLES.  THE BEST CHANCE
WOULD BE IN AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF I-495. BUT IF THE CLOUDS MOVE IN
AND THICKEN A LITTLE FASTER...TEMPS WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING AND
PCPN...IF ANY...WOULD BE LIGHT RAIN. WE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH A MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN AS NOTED
ABOVE.

SUNDAY...UPPER FLOW REMAINS WEST-EAST SO THAT THE NORTHERN COLD
FRONT IS DOUBTFUL TO MAKE IT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  EXPECT
ANY PRECIP TO MOVE OUT EARLY WITH CLOUDS BREAKING TO ALLOW SOME
SUNSHINE. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WARM A FEW DEGREES AND
SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY... THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH TO THE
GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A WARM FRONT NORTH TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.  A
STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTH JET WILL GENERATE FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT
AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION.  TIMING OF THIS JET WOULD INDICATE THE
LIFT ARRIVES AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY AFTER. WE EXPECT RAIN TO
DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND THIS TIME.  MODELS INDICATE
THE JET WILL BE 60-65 KNOTS AND COULD GENERATE SOME GUSTY WINDS
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. PRECIP WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO TOP OUT BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.0 INCHES WHICH WOULD BE A LITTLE OVER
1 STD DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL...SO TORRENTIAL RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED.

THE WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD DIMINISH THE COVERAGE OF THE RAIN TO SHOWERS.  THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...ENDING AS THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWINGS OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY...THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAST THE COLD FRONT
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.  THE GFS SOLUTION KEEPS A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND A STRONG JET OVERHEAD. THE COLD FRONT WOULD HAVE
DIFFICULTY MOVING EAST IN SUCH AN ENVIRONMENT. THE ECMWF SOLUTION
SHOWS A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT THAT WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MOVE THE
FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND OFF TO THE EAST. WE HAVE KEPT A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY IN EASTERN MASS BUT TRENDED TOWARD PARTIAL
CLEARING AND COOLER WEATHER.

WEDNESDAY-THANKSGIVING DAY...THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS
AMPLIFIES MIDWEEK...AND SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW. LOW PRESSURE WAVES
MOVING UP THE OFFSHORE COLD FRONT MAY KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
EASTERN MASS/RI ON WEDNESDAY BUT OTHERWISE WE HAVE CONTINUED THE
TREND TO COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER AS WE MOVE INTO THE HOLIDAY

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS TO 25 KT.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH DIMINISHING WIND.

SATURDAY...VFR. INCREASING SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO
25-30 KT DEVELOPING IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT...
CLOUDS MOVE IN AT NIGHT...BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN LIGHT
SPRINKLES ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. COULD BE LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE/FREEZING SPRINKLES NORTH AND WEST OF I-495.

SUNDAY...
VFR. DIMINISHING WIND.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...CIGS/VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR/IFR IN RAIN/FOG.
SOUTH WIND AT 2000 FEET INCREASES TO 60-65 KNOTS ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN LATE NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AND MAY GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND
OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THAT AREA. CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVE TO VFR
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT NIGHT AND SHOULD
GENERATE BRIEF MVFR IN SHOWERS. WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SSW TO WSW WITH
THE WIND SHIFT.

TUESDAY...VFR. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN MASS/RI

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE THRU FRI NIGHT.

TONIGHT...GUSTY W/NW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT AND LOW RISK OF
ISOLATED GUSTS TO 35 KT. WE LOWERED GALES TO SCA FOR BOS HARBOR
AND NARRAGANSETT BAY. MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS.

FRI...WNW WINDS UP TO 35 KT. OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WELL
OFFSHORE.

FRI NIGHT...WNW WINDS SLOWLY EASE. DESPITE SUBFREEZING TEMPS AND
MODEST WNW WINDS OCEAN TEMPS STILL TOO WARM FOR ANY FREEZING SPRAY
CONCERNS WITH NEAR SHORE WATER TEMPS IN THE MU40S.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY... SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS. SEAS BUILD TO 5-6 FEET DURING THE DAY AND 5-8 FEET SATURDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO 30 KNOTS DURING THE DAY
AND THEN DIMINISH IN THE EVENING. SEAS 5-8 FEET WILL DIMINISH IN THE
EVENING.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...A WARM FRONT MOVES UP ACROSS THE WATERS.
VSBYS WILL LOWER TO 1-3 MILES IN RAIN AND FOG STARTING AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE MORNING. STRONG SOUTH
WINDS...ROUGHLY 60-65 KNOTS...AT 2000 FEET ALTITUDE WILL MOVE OVER
THE WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SOME OF THIS
WIND MAY BE DRAWN TO THE SURFACE IN HEAVIER BURSTS OF RAIN. AT THE
LEAST...SOUTH WINDS WILL BE NEAR GALE FORCE FOR A TIME AND THEN
LINGER ABOVE 25 KNOTS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL DRIVE SEAS TO
5-10 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.

TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST NEAR SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.
SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH BUT REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE EXPOSED
WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/KJC
MARINE...WTB/KJC/NOCERA



000
FXUS61 KBOX 210550
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1250 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT DELIVERS A REINFORCING SURGE OF BLUSTERY AND
UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS. THE COLD WILL LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP IS IN STORE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT
IT WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF RAIN. COOLER WEATHER
RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1245 AM UPDATE...
AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN WILL BE
PUSHING OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR INDICATES A BRIEF
SHOWER/FLURRY POSSIBLE OVER ACK...OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FRIDAY...
COLD DAY BY LATE NOV STANDARDS WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S /NORMAL
HIGH AROUND 50/ AND A BRISK WNW WIND WILL YIELD WIND CHILLS IN THE
20S /TEENS HIGHER TERRAIN/! GEFS TEMP ANOMALIES INDICATE 850 TEMPS
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND 18Z FRI ARE ABOUT -2 STD WITH VALUES
AROUND -14C. SO DESPITE A WELL MIXED BLYR AND AT LEAST PARTIAL
SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT MU30S WILL BE OUR MAX AFTN
TEMPS FRI AFTN. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE BRISK WNW WINDS WILL MAKE
IT FEEL MUCH COLDER.


FRIDAY NIGHT...
DRY WEATHER PREVAILS BUT ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
TEENS EXCEPT 20S IN THE URBAN AREAS INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. NOT AS MUCH OF A WIND CHILL GIVEN THE WEAKENING PGRAD
WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRES APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST BRINGS
HEIGHTS OVER NEW ENGLAND BACK TO NORMAL DURING THE WEEKEND AND ABOVE
NORMAL EARLY WEEK. SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE JUST OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST WILL DIG AS IT MOVES TO TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE BUILDING
RIDGE WILL THEN DEFLECT THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE NORTH WHERE IT MERGES
WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THIS MEANS A BROAD TROUGH FORMING OVER THE CENTER OF THE
NATION EARLY WEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS. THIS BROAD TROUGH
SLOWLY MOVES EAST TO NEW ENGLAND MID TO LATE WEEK.

FOR NEW ENGLAND THIS WOULD MEAN A WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND AND
MILD TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN COOLING TO BELOW NORMAL BY
THANKSGIVING.

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE ECWMF
IS THEN FASTER IN MIGRATING THE PLAINS TROUGH THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
AND OFF TO THE EAST WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS THE TROUGH AXIS TO OUR
WEST THROUGH THURSDAY. MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE
THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE DAILIES...

SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THE DAY WITH THE
AXIS CROSSING DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD TURN THE WIND
SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON. INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT BUT EXPECT MOST
CLOUDS TO BE MID AND HIGH LEVEL. WITH THE DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT THE MIXING REACHES ONLY TO 950 MB WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC
TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

SATURDAY NIGHT...INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS AS A NORTHERN
STREAM COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. VERTICAL
DISTRIBUTION IS SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR PCPN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT
WARM ADVECTION LIFT IS NEGLIGIBLE. JET DYNAMICS IS QUESTIONABLE.
CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES. THE QUESTION OF PTYPE THEN
COMES UP.  TEMPS WILL BE STARTING OUT IN THE 30S AND MAY COOL A
LITTLE BELOW FREEZING BEFORE THE CLOUDS THICKEN. THIS WOULD CAUSE
SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FREEZING SPRINKLES.  THE BEST CHANCE
WOULD BE IN AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF I-495. BUT IF THE CLOUDS MOVE IN
AND THICKEN A LITTLE FASTER...TEMPS WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING AND
PCPN...IF ANY...WOULD BE LIGHT RAIN. WE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH A MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN AS NOTED
ABOVE.

SUNDAY...UPPER FLOW REMAINS WEST-EAST SO THAT THE NORTHERN COLD
FRONT IS DOUBTFUL TO MAKE IT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  EXPECT
ANY PRECIP TO MOVE OUT EARLY WITH CLOUDS BREAKING TO ALLOW SOME
SUNSHINE. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WARM A FEW DEGREES AND
SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY... THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH TO THE
GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A WARM FRONT NORTH TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.  A
STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTH JET WILL GENERATE FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT
AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION.  TIMING OF THIS JET WOULD INDICATE THE
LIFT ARRIVES AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY AFTER. WE EXPECT RAIN TO
DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND THIS TIME.  MODELS INDICATE
THE JET WILL BE 60-65 KNOTS AND COULD GENERATE SOME GUSTY WINDS
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. PRECIP WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO TOP OUT BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.0 INCHES WHICH WOULD BE A LITTLE OVER
1 STD DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL...SO TORRENTIAL RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED.

THE WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD DIMINISH THE COVERAGE OF THE RAIN TO SHOWERS.  THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...ENDING AS THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWINGS OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY...THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAST THE COLD FRONT
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.  THE GFS SOLUTION KEEPS A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND A STRONG JET OVERHEAD. THE COLD FRONT WOULD HAVE
DIFFICULTY MOVING EAST IN SUCH AN ENVIRONMENT. THE ECMWF SOLUTION
SHOWS A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT THAT WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MOVE THE
FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND OFF TO THE EAST. WE HAVE KEPT A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY IN EASTERN MASS BUT TRENDED TOWARD PARTIAL
CLEARING AND COOLER WEATHER.

WEDNESDAY-THANKSGIVING DAY...THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS
AMPLIFIES MIDWEEK...AND SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW. LOW PRESSURE WAVES
MOVING UP THE OFFSHORE COLD FRONT MAY KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
EASTERN MASS/RI ON WEDNESDAY BUT OTHERWISE WE HAVE CONTINUED THE
TREND TO COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER AS WE MOVE INTO THE HOLIDAY

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS TO 25 KT.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH DIMINISHING WIND.

SATURDAY...VFR. INCREASING SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO
25-30 KT DEVELOPING IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT...
CLOUDS MOVE IN AT NIGHT...BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN LIGHT
SPRINKLES ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. COULD BE LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE/FREEZING SPRINKLES NORTH AND WEST OF I-495.

SUNDAY...
VFR. DIMINISHING WIND.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...CIGS/VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR/IFR IN RAIN/FOG.
SOUTH WIND AT 2000 FEET INCREASES TO 60-65 KNOTS ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN LATE NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AND MAY GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND
OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THAT AREA. CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVE TO VFR
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT NIGHT AND SHOULD
GENERATE BRIEF MVFR IN SHOWERS. WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SSW TO WSW WITH
THE WIND SHIFT.

TUESDAY...VFR. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN MASS/RI

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE THRU FRI NIGHT.

TONIGHT...GUSTY W/NW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT AND LOW RISK OF
ISOLATED GUSTS TO 35 KT. WE LOWERED GALES TO SCA FOR BOS HARBOR
AND NARRAGANSETT BAY. MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS.

FRI...WNW WINDS UP TO 35 KT. OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WELL
OFFSHORE.

FRI NIGHT...WNW WINDS SLOWLY EASE. DESPITE SUBFREEZING TEMPS AND
MODEST WNW WINDS OCEAN TEMPS STILL TOO WARM FOR ANY FREEZING SPRAY
CONCERNS WITH NEAR SHORE WATER TEMPS IN THE MU40S.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY... SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS. SEAS BUILD TO 5-6 FEET DURING THE DAY AND 5-8 FEET SATURDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO 30 KNOTS DURING THE DAY
AND THEN DIMINISH IN THE EVENING. SEAS 5-8 FEET WILL DIMINISH IN THE
EVENING.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...A WARM FRONT MOVES UP ACROSS THE WATERS.
VSBYS WILL LOWER TO 1-3 MILES IN RAIN AND FOG STARTING AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE MORNING. STRONG SOUTH
WINDS...ROUGHLY 60-65 KNOTS...AT 2000 FEET ALTITUDE WILL MOVE OVER
THE WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SOME OF THIS
WIND MAY BE DRAWN TO THE SURFACE IN HEAVIER BURSTS OF RAIN. AT THE
LEAST...SOUTH WINDS WILL BE NEAR GALE FORCE FOR A TIME AND THEN
LINGER ABOVE 25 KNOTS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL DRIVE SEAS TO
5-10 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.

TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST NEAR SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.
SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH BUT REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE EXPOSED
WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/KJC
MARINE...WTB/KJC/NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 210324
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1024 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT DELIVERS A REINFORCING SURGE OF BLUSTERY AND
UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS. THE COLD WILL LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP IS IN STORE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT
IT WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF RAIN. COOLER WEATHER
RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
1020 PM UPDATE...
OTHER THAN SOME OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS OVER THE ISLANDS AND A NARROW
BAND OF CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH MA SKIES ARE CLEAR. AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES NW OCEAN CLOUDS WILL PUSH FURTHER S. MODELS INDICATE
SOME LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE MAY SPILL INTO THE BERKSHIRES OVERNIGHT
IN THE FORM OF SOME CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FLURRY...OTHERWISE
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OTHER CONCERN TONIGHT IS THE WEST LOW LEVEL FLOW BRINGING
LEFTOVER LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE EAST FROM LAKE ERIE. SOME OF THIS
MAY SPILL OVER THE BERKSHIRES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TYPICALLY
THE BULK OF ANY LEFTOVER MOISTURE STOPS AT THE BERKSHIRES. AFTER
THE INITIAL CLOUD BAND /NOTED ABOVE/ MOVES THROUGH...THE FORECAST
WILL EXPECT PATCHY CLOUDS MAINLY WEST OF THE CT RIVER.

COLD ADVECTION WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 20S MOST PLACES. THIS ADVECTION WILL ALSO DRAW
GUSTY WEST WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE BUT A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN WE
HAD DURING THE DAY. OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...
COLD DAY BY LATE NOV STANDARDS WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S /NORMAL
HIGH AROUND 50/ AND A BRISK WNW WIND WILL YIELD WIND CHILLS IN THE
20S /TEENS HIGHER TERRAIN/! GEFS TEMP ANOMALIES INDICATE 850 TEMPS
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND 18Z FRI ARE ABOUT -2 STD WITH VALUES
AROUND -14C. SO DESPITE A WELL MIXED BLYR AND AT LEAST PARTIAL
SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT MU30S WILL BE OUR MAX AFTN
TEMPS FRI AFTN. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE BRISK WNW WINDS WILL MAKE
IT FEEL MUCH COLDER.


FRIDAY NIGHT...
DRY WEATHER PREVAILS BUT ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
TEENS EXCEPT 20S IN THE URBAN AREAS INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. NOT AS MUCH OF A WIND CHILL GIVEN THE WEAKENING PGRAD
WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRES APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST BRINGS
HEIGHTS OVER NEW ENGLAND BACK TO NORMAL DURING THE WEEKEND AND ABOVE
NORMAL EARLY WEEK. SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE JUST OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST WILL DIG AS IT MOVES TO TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE BUILDING
RIDGE WILL THEN DEFLECT THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE NORTH WHERE IT MERGES
WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THIS MEANS A BROAD TROUGH FORMING OVER THE CENTER OF THE
NATION EARLY WEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS. THIS BROAD TROUGH
SLOWLY MOVES EAST TO NEW ENGLAND MID TO LATE WEEK.

FOR NEW ENGLAND THIS WOULD MEAN A WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND AND
MILD TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN COOLING TO BELOW NORMAL BY
THANKSGIVING.

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE ECWMF
IS THEN FASTER IN MIGRATING THE PLAINS TROUGH THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
AND OFF TO THE EAST WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS THE TROUGH AXIS TO OUR
WEST THROUGH THURSDAY. MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE
THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE DAILIES...

SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THE DAY WITH THE
AXIS CROSSING DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD TURN THE WIND
SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON. INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT BUT EXPECT MOST
CLOUDS TO BE MID AND HIGH LEVEL. WITH THE DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT THE MIXING REACHES ONLY TO 950 MB WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC
TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

SATURDAY NIGHT...INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS AS A NORTHERN
STREAM COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. VERTICAL
DISTRIBUTION IS SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR PCPN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT
WARM ADVECTION LIFT IS NEGLIGIBLE. JET DYNAMICS IS QUESTIONABLE.
CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES. THE QUESTION OF PTYPE THEN
COMES UP.  TEMPS WILL BE STARTING OUT IN THE 30S AND MAY COOL A
LITTLE BELOW FREEZING BEFORE THE CLOUDS THICKEN. THIS WOULD CAUSE
SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FREEZING SPRINKLES.  THE BEST CHANCE
WOULD BE IN AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF I-495. BUT IF THE CLOUDS MOVE IN
AND THICKEN A LITTLE FASTER...TEMPS WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING AND
PCPN...IF ANY...WOULD BE LIGHT RAIN. WE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH A MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN AS NOTED
ABOVE.

SUNDAY...UPPER FLOW REMAINS WEST-EAST SO THAT THE NORTHERN COLD
FRONT IS DOUBTFUL TO MAKE IT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  EXPECT
ANY PRECIP TO MOVE OUT EARLY WITH CLOUDS BREAKING TO ALLOW SOME
SUNSHINE. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WARM A FEW DEGREES AND
SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY... THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH TO THE
GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A WARM FRONT NORTH TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.  A
STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTH JET WILL GENERATE FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT
AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION.  TIMING OF THIS JET WOULD INDICATE THE
LIFT ARRIVES AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY AFTER. WE EXPECT RAIN TO
DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND THIS TIME.  MODELS INDICATE
THE JET WILL BE 60-65 KNOTS AND COULD GENERATE SOME GUSTY WINDS
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. PRECIP WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO TOP OUT BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.0 INCHES WHICH WOULD BE A LITTLE OVER
1 STD DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL...SO TORRENTIAL RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED.

THE WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD DIMINISH THE COVERAGE OF THE RAIN TO SHOWERS.  THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...ENDING AS THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWINGS OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY...THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAST THE COLD FRONT
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.  THE GFS SOLUTION KEEPS A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND A STRONG JET OVERHEAD. THE COLD FRONT WOULD HAVE
DIFFICULTY MOVING EAST IN SUCH AN ENVIRONMENT. THE ECMWF SOLUTION
SHOWS A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT THAT WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MOVE THE
FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND OFF TO THE EAST. WE HAVE KEPT A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY IN EASTERN MASS BUT TRENDED TOWARD PARTIAL
CLEARING AND COOLER WEATHER.

WEDNESDAY-THANKSGIVING DAY...THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS
AMPLIFIES MIDWEEK...AND SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW. LOW PRESSURE WAVES
MOVING UP THE OFFSHORE COLD FRONT MAY KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
EASTERN MASS/RI ON WEDNESDAY BUT OTHERWISE WE HAVE CONTINUED THE
TREND TO COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER AS WE MOVE INTO THE HOLIDAY

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...WEST WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT. VFR.

FRI...VFR BUT GUSTY WNW WINDS 20-25 KT. LOW RISK OF BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS IN AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER.

FRI NIGHT...
VFR WITH DIMINISHING WNW WINDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY...
VFR.  SW WIND 40 KNOTS AT 2000 FEET...POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR. CLOUDS MOVE IN AT NIGHT...BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN
LIGHT SPRINKLES ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. COULD BE LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE/FREEZING SPRINKLES NORTH AND WEST OF I-495.

SUNDAY...
VFR. DIMINISHING WIND.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...CIGS/VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR/IFR IN RAIN/FOG.
SOUTH WIND AT 2000 FEET INCREASES TO 60-65 KNOTS ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN LATE NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AND MAY GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND
OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THAT AREA. CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVE TO VFR
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT NIGHT AND SHOULD
GENERATE BRIEF MVFR IN SHOWERS. WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SSW TO WSW WITH
THE WIND SHIFT.

TUESDAY...VFR. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN MASS/RI

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE THRU FRI NIGHT.

TONIGHT...GUSTY W/NW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT AND LOW RISK OF
ISOLATED GUSTS TO 35 KT. WE LOWERED GALES TO SCA FOR BOS HARBOR
AND NARRAGANSETT BAY. MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS.

FRI...WNW WINDS UP TO 35 KT. OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WELL
OFFSHORE.

FRI NIGHT...WNW WINDS SLOWLY EASE. DESPITE SUBFREEZING TEMPS AND
MODEST WNW WINDS OCEAN TEMPS STILL TOO WARM FOR ANY FREEZING SPRAY
CONCERNS WITH NEAR SHORE WATER TEMPS IN THE MU40S.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY... SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS. SEAS BUILD TO 5-6 FEET DURING THE DAY AND 5-8 FEET SATURDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO 30 KNOTS DURING THE DAY
AND THEN DIMINISH IN THE EVENING. SEAS 5-8 FEET WILL DIMINISH IN THE
EVENING.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...A WARM FRONT MOVES UP ACROSS THE WATERS.
VSBYS WILL LOWER TO 1-3 MILES IN RAIN AND FOG STARTING AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE MORNING. STRONG SOUTH
WINDS...ROUGHLY 60-65 KNOTS...AT 2000 FEET ALTITUDE WILL MOVE OVER
THE WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SOME OF THIS
WIND MAY BE DRAWN TO THE SURFACE IN HEAVIER BURSTS OF RAIN. AT THE
LEAST...SOUTH WINDS WILL BE NEAR GALE FORCE FOR A TIME AND THEN
LINGER ABOVE 25 KNOTS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL DRIVE SEAS TO
5-10 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.

TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST NEAR SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.
SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH BUT REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE EXPOSED
WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ230-236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...KJC/NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/NOCERA
MARINE...WTB/KJC/NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 210324
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1024 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT DELIVERS A REINFORCING SURGE OF BLUSTERY AND
UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS. THE COLD WILL LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP IS IN STORE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT
IT WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF RAIN. COOLER WEATHER
RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
1020 PM UPDATE...
OTHER THAN SOME OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS OVER THE ISLANDS AND A NARROW
BAND OF CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH MA SKIES ARE CLEAR. AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES NW OCEAN CLOUDS WILL PUSH FURTHER S. MODELS INDICATE
SOME LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE MAY SPILL INTO THE BERKSHIRES OVERNIGHT
IN THE FORM OF SOME CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FLURRY...OTHERWISE
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OTHER CONCERN TONIGHT IS THE WEST LOW LEVEL FLOW BRINGING
LEFTOVER LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE EAST FROM LAKE ERIE. SOME OF THIS
MAY SPILL OVER THE BERKSHIRES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TYPICALLY
THE BULK OF ANY LEFTOVER MOISTURE STOPS AT THE BERKSHIRES. AFTER
THE INITIAL CLOUD BAND /NOTED ABOVE/ MOVES THROUGH...THE FORECAST
WILL EXPECT PATCHY CLOUDS MAINLY WEST OF THE CT RIVER.

COLD ADVECTION WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 20S MOST PLACES. THIS ADVECTION WILL ALSO DRAW
GUSTY WEST WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE BUT A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN WE
HAD DURING THE DAY. OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...
COLD DAY BY LATE NOV STANDARDS WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S /NORMAL
HIGH AROUND 50/ AND A BRISK WNW WIND WILL YIELD WIND CHILLS IN THE
20S /TEENS HIGHER TERRAIN/! GEFS TEMP ANOMALIES INDICATE 850 TEMPS
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND 18Z FRI ARE ABOUT -2 STD WITH VALUES
AROUND -14C. SO DESPITE A WELL MIXED BLYR AND AT LEAST PARTIAL
SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT MU30S WILL BE OUR MAX AFTN
TEMPS FRI AFTN. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE BRISK WNW WINDS WILL MAKE
IT FEEL MUCH COLDER.


FRIDAY NIGHT...
DRY WEATHER PREVAILS BUT ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
TEENS EXCEPT 20S IN THE URBAN AREAS INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. NOT AS MUCH OF A WIND CHILL GIVEN THE WEAKENING PGRAD
WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRES APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST BRINGS
HEIGHTS OVER NEW ENGLAND BACK TO NORMAL DURING THE WEEKEND AND ABOVE
NORMAL EARLY WEEK. SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE JUST OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST WILL DIG AS IT MOVES TO TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE BUILDING
RIDGE WILL THEN DEFLECT THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE NORTH WHERE IT MERGES
WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THIS MEANS A BROAD TROUGH FORMING OVER THE CENTER OF THE
NATION EARLY WEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS. THIS BROAD TROUGH
SLOWLY MOVES EAST TO NEW ENGLAND MID TO LATE WEEK.

FOR NEW ENGLAND THIS WOULD MEAN A WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND AND
MILD TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN COOLING TO BELOW NORMAL BY
THANKSGIVING.

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE ECWMF
IS THEN FASTER IN MIGRATING THE PLAINS TROUGH THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
AND OFF TO THE EAST WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS THE TROUGH AXIS TO OUR
WEST THROUGH THURSDAY. MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE
THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE DAILIES...

SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THE DAY WITH THE
AXIS CROSSING DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD TURN THE WIND
SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON. INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT BUT EXPECT MOST
CLOUDS TO BE MID AND HIGH LEVEL. WITH THE DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT THE MIXING REACHES ONLY TO 950 MB WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC
TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

SATURDAY NIGHT...INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS AS A NORTHERN
STREAM COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. VERTICAL
DISTRIBUTION IS SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR PCPN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT
WARM ADVECTION LIFT IS NEGLIGIBLE. JET DYNAMICS IS QUESTIONABLE.
CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES. THE QUESTION OF PTYPE THEN
COMES UP.  TEMPS WILL BE STARTING OUT IN THE 30S AND MAY COOL A
LITTLE BELOW FREEZING BEFORE THE CLOUDS THICKEN. THIS WOULD CAUSE
SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FREEZING SPRINKLES.  THE BEST CHANCE
WOULD BE IN AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF I-495. BUT IF THE CLOUDS MOVE IN
AND THICKEN A LITTLE FASTER...TEMPS WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING AND
PCPN...IF ANY...WOULD BE LIGHT RAIN. WE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH A MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN AS NOTED
ABOVE.

SUNDAY...UPPER FLOW REMAINS WEST-EAST SO THAT THE NORTHERN COLD
FRONT IS DOUBTFUL TO MAKE IT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  EXPECT
ANY PRECIP TO MOVE OUT EARLY WITH CLOUDS BREAKING TO ALLOW SOME
SUNSHINE. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WARM A FEW DEGREES AND
SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY... THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH TO THE
GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A WARM FRONT NORTH TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.  A
STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTH JET WILL GENERATE FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT
AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION.  TIMING OF THIS JET WOULD INDICATE THE
LIFT ARRIVES AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY AFTER. WE EXPECT RAIN TO
DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND THIS TIME.  MODELS INDICATE
THE JET WILL BE 60-65 KNOTS AND COULD GENERATE SOME GUSTY WINDS
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. PRECIP WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO TOP OUT BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.0 INCHES WHICH WOULD BE A LITTLE OVER
1 STD DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL...SO TORRENTIAL RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED.

THE WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD DIMINISH THE COVERAGE OF THE RAIN TO SHOWERS.  THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...ENDING AS THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWINGS OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY...THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAST THE COLD FRONT
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.  THE GFS SOLUTION KEEPS A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND A STRONG JET OVERHEAD. THE COLD FRONT WOULD HAVE
DIFFICULTY MOVING EAST IN SUCH AN ENVIRONMENT. THE ECMWF SOLUTION
SHOWS A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT THAT WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MOVE THE
FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND OFF TO THE EAST. WE HAVE KEPT A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY IN EASTERN MASS BUT TRENDED TOWARD PARTIAL
CLEARING AND COOLER WEATHER.

WEDNESDAY-THANKSGIVING DAY...THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS
AMPLIFIES MIDWEEK...AND SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW. LOW PRESSURE WAVES
MOVING UP THE OFFSHORE COLD FRONT MAY KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
EASTERN MASS/RI ON WEDNESDAY BUT OTHERWISE WE HAVE CONTINUED THE
TREND TO COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER AS WE MOVE INTO THE HOLIDAY

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...WEST WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT. VFR.

FRI...VFR BUT GUSTY WNW WINDS 20-25 KT. LOW RISK OF BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS IN AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER.

FRI NIGHT...
VFR WITH DIMINISHING WNW WINDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY...
VFR.  SW WIND 40 KNOTS AT 2000 FEET...POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR. CLOUDS MOVE IN AT NIGHT...BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN
LIGHT SPRINKLES ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. COULD BE LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE/FREEZING SPRINKLES NORTH AND WEST OF I-495.

SUNDAY...
VFR. DIMINISHING WIND.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...CIGS/VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR/IFR IN RAIN/FOG.
SOUTH WIND AT 2000 FEET INCREASES TO 60-65 KNOTS ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN LATE NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AND MAY GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND
OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THAT AREA. CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVE TO VFR
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT NIGHT AND SHOULD
GENERATE BRIEF MVFR IN SHOWERS. WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SSW TO WSW WITH
THE WIND SHIFT.

TUESDAY...VFR. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN MASS/RI

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE THRU FRI NIGHT.

TONIGHT...GUSTY W/NW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT AND LOW RISK OF
ISOLATED GUSTS TO 35 KT. WE LOWERED GALES TO SCA FOR BOS HARBOR
AND NARRAGANSETT BAY. MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS.

FRI...WNW WINDS UP TO 35 KT. OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WELL
OFFSHORE.

FRI NIGHT...WNW WINDS SLOWLY EASE. DESPITE SUBFREEZING TEMPS AND
MODEST WNW WINDS OCEAN TEMPS STILL TOO WARM FOR ANY FREEZING SPRAY
CONCERNS WITH NEAR SHORE WATER TEMPS IN THE MU40S.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY... SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS. SEAS BUILD TO 5-6 FEET DURING THE DAY AND 5-8 FEET SATURDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO 30 KNOTS DURING THE DAY
AND THEN DIMINISH IN THE EVENING. SEAS 5-8 FEET WILL DIMINISH IN THE
EVENING.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...A WARM FRONT MOVES UP ACROSS THE WATERS.
VSBYS WILL LOWER TO 1-3 MILES IN RAIN AND FOG STARTING AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE MORNING. STRONG SOUTH
WINDS...ROUGHLY 60-65 KNOTS...AT 2000 FEET ALTITUDE WILL MOVE OVER
THE WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SOME OF THIS
WIND MAY BE DRAWN TO THE SURFACE IN HEAVIER BURSTS OF RAIN. AT THE
LEAST...SOUTH WINDS WILL BE NEAR GALE FORCE FOR A TIME AND THEN
LINGER ABOVE 25 KNOTS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL DRIVE SEAS TO
5-10 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.

TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST NEAR SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.
SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH BUT REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE EXPOSED
WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ230-236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...KJC/NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/NOCERA
MARINE...WTB/KJC/NOCERA



000
FXUS61 KBOX 210324
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1024 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT DELIVERS A REINFORCING SURGE OF BLUSTERY AND
UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS. THE COLD WILL LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP IS IN STORE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT
IT WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF RAIN. COOLER WEATHER
RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
1020 PM UPDATE...
OTHER THAN SOME OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS OVER THE ISLANDS AND A NARROW
BAND OF CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH MA SKIES ARE CLEAR. AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES NW OCEAN CLOUDS WILL PUSH FURTHER S. MODELS INDICATE
SOME LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE MAY SPILL INTO THE BERKSHIRES OVERNIGHT
IN THE FORM OF SOME CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FLURRY...OTHERWISE
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OTHER CONCERN TONIGHT IS THE WEST LOW LEVEL FLOW BRINGING
LEFTOVER LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE EAST FROM LAKE ERIE. SOME OF THIS
MAY SPILL OVER THE BERKSHIRES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TYPICALLY
THE BULK OF ANY LEFTOVER MOISTURE STOPS AT THE BERKSHIRES. AFTER
THE INITIAL CLOUD BAND /NOTED ABOVE/ MOVES THROUGH...THE FORECAST
WILL EXPECT PATCHY CLOUDS MAINLY WEST OF THE CT RIVER.

COLD ADVECTION WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 20S MOST PLACES. THIS ADVECTION WILL ALSO DRAW
GUSTY WEST WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE BUT A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN WE
HAD DURING THE DAY. OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...
COLD DAY BY LATE NOV STANDARDS WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S /NORMAL
HIGH AROUND 50/ AND A BRISK WNW WIND WILL YIELD WIND CHILLS IN THE
20S /TEENS HIGHER TERRAIN/! GEFS TEMP ANOMALIES INDICATE 850 TEMPS
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND 18Z FRI ARE ABOUT -2 STD WITH VALUES
AROUND -14C. SO DESPITE A WELL MIXED BLYR AND AT LEAST PARTIAL
SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT MU30S WILL BE OUR MAX AFTN
TEMPS FRI AFTN. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE BRISK WNW WINDS WILL MAKE
IT FEEL MUCH COLDER.


FRIDAY NIGHT...
DRY WEATHER PREVAILS BUT ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
TEENS EXCEPT 20S IN THE URBAN AREAS INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. NOT AS MUCH OF A WIND CHILL GIVEN THE WEAKENING PGRAD
WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRES APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST BRINGS
HEIGHTS OVER NEW ENGLAND BACK TO NORMAL DURING THE WEEKEND AND ABOVE
NORMAL EARLY WEEK. SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE JUST OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST WILL DIG AS IT MOVES TO TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE BUILDING
RIDGE WILL THEN DEFLECT THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE NORTH WHERE IT MERGES
WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THIS MEANS A BROAD TROUGH FORMING OVER THE CENTER OF THE
NATION EARLY WEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS. THIS BROAD TROUGH
SLOWLY MOVES EAST TO NEW ENGLAND MID TO LATE WEEK.

FOR NEW ENGLAND THIS WOULD MEAN A WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND AND
MILD TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN COOLING TO BELOW NORMAL BY
THANKSGIVING.

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE ECWMF
IS THEN FASTER IN MIGRATING THE PLAINS TROUGH THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
AND OFF TO THE EAST WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS THE TROUGH AXIS TO OUR
WEST THROUGH THURSDAY. MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE
THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE DAILIES...

SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THE DAY WITH THE
AXIS CROSSING DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD TURN THE WIND
SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON. INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT BUT EXPECT MOST
CLOUDS TO BE MID AND HIGH LEVEL. WITH THE DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT THE MIXING REACHES ONLY TO 950 MB WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC
TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

SATURDAY NIGHT...INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS AS A NORTHERN
STREAM COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. VERTICAL
DISTRIBUTION IS SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR PCPN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT
WARM ADVECTION LIFT IS NEGLIGIBLE. JET DYNAMICS IS QUESTIONABLE.
CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES. THE QUESTION OF PTYPE THEN
COMES UP.  TEMPS WILL BE STARTING OUT IN THE 30S AND MAY COOL A
LITTLE BELOW FREEZING BEFORE THE CLOUDS THICKEN. THIS WOULD CAUSE
SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FREEZING SPRINKLES.  THE BEST CHANCE
WOULD BE IN AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF I-495. BUT IF THE CLOUDS MOVE IN
AND THICKEN A LITTLE FASTER...TEMPS WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING AND
PCPN...IF ANY...WOULD BE LIGHT RAIN. WE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH A MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN AS NOTED
ABOVE.

SUNDAY...UPPER FLOW REMAINS WEST-EAST SO THAT THE NORTHERN COLD
FRONT IS DOUBTFUL TO MAKE IT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  EXPECT
ANY PRECIP TO MOVE OUT EARLY WITH CLOUDS BREAKING TO ALLOW SOME
SUNSHINE. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WARM A FEW DEGREES AND
SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY... THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH TO THE
GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A WARM FRONT NORTH TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.  A
STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTH JET WILL GENERATE FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT
AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION.  TIMING OF THIS JET WOULD INDICATE THE
LIFT ARRIVES AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY AFTER. WE EXPECT RAIN TO
DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND THIS TIME.  MODELS INDICATE
THE JET WILL BE 60-65 KNOTS AND COULD GENERATE SOME GUSTY WINDS
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. PRECIP WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO TOP OUT BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.0 INCHES WHICH WOULD BE A LITTLE OVER
1 STD DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL...SO TORRENTIAL RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED.

THE WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD DIMINISH THE COVERAGE OF THE RAIN TO SHOWERS.  THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...ENDING AS THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWINGS OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY...THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAST THE COLD FRONT
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.  THE GFS SOLUTION KEEPS A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND A STRONG JET OVERHEAD. THE COLD FRONT WOULD HAVE
DIFFICULTY MOVING EAST IN SUCH AN ENVIRONMENT. THE ECMWF SOLUTION
SHOWS A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT THAT WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MOVE THE
FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND OFF TO THE EAST. WE HAVE KEPT A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY IN EASTERN MASS BUT TRENDED TOWARD PARTIAL
CLEARING AND COOLER WEATHER.

WEDNESDAY-THANKSGIVING DAY...THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS
AMPLIFIES MIDWEEK...AND SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW. LOW PRESSURE WAVES
MOVING UP THE OFFSHORE COLD FRONT MAY KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
EASTERN MASS/RI ON WEDNESDAY BUT OTHERWISE WE HAVE CONTINUED THE
TREND TO COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER AS WE MOVE INTO THE HOLIDAY

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...WEST WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT. VFR.

FRI...VFR BUT GUSTY WNW WINDS 20-25 KT. LOW RISK OF BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS IN AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER.

FRI NIGHT...
VFR WITH DIMINISHING WNW WINDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY...
VFR.  SW WIND 40 KNOTS AT 2000 FEET...POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR. CLOUDS MOVE IN AT NIGHT...BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN
LIGHT SPRINKLES ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. COULD BE LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE/FREEZING SPRINKLES NORTH AND WEST OF I-495.

SUNDAY...
VFR. DIMINISHING WIND.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...CIGS/VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR/IFR IN RAIN/FOG.
SOUTH WIND AT 2000 FEET INCREASES TO 60-65 KNOTS ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN LATE NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AND MAY GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND
OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THAT AREA. CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVE TO VFR
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT NIGHT AND SHOULD
GENERATE BRIEF MVFR IN SHOWERS. WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SSW TO WSW WITH
THE WIND SHIFT.

TUESDAY...VFR. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN MASS/RI

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE THRU FRI NIGHT.

TONIGHT...GUSTY W/NW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT AND LOW RISK OF
ISOLATED GUSTS TO 35 KT. WE LOWERED GALES TO SCA FOR BOS HARBOR
AND NARRAGANSETT BAY. MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS.

FRI...WNW WINDS UP TO 35 KT. OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WELL
OFFSHORE.

FRI NIGHT...WNW WINDS SLOWLY EASE. DESPITE SUBFREEZING TEMPS AND
MODEST WNW WINDS OCEAN TEMPS STILL TOO WARM FOR ANY FREEZING SPRAY
CONCERNS WITH NEAR SHORE WATER TEMPS IN THE MU40S.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY... SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS. SEAS BUILD TO 5-6 FEET DURING THE DAY AND 5-8 FEET SATURDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO 30 KNOTS DURING THE DAY
AND THEN DIMINISH IN THE EVENING. SEAS 5-8 FEET WILL DIMINISH IN THE
EVENING.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...A WARM FRONT MOVES UP ACROSS THE WATERS.
VSBYS WILL LOWER TO 1-3 MILES IN RAIN AND FOG STARTING AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE MORNING. STRONG SOUTH
WINDS...ROUGHLY 60-65 KNOTS...AT 2000 FEET ALTITUDE WILL MOVE OVER
THE WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SOME OF THIS
WIND MAY BE DRAWN TO THE SURFACE IN HEAVIER BURSTS OF RAIN. AT THE
LEAST...SOUTH WINDS WILL BE NEAR GALE FORCE FOR A TIME AND THEN
LINGER ABOVE 25 KNOTS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL DRIVE SEAS TO
5-10 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.

TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST NEAR SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.
SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH BUT REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE EXPOSED
WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ230-236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...KJC/NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/NOCERA
MARINE...WTB/KJC/NOCERA



000
FXUS61 KBOX 210324
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1024 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT DELIVERS A REINFORCING SURGE OF BLUSTERY AND
UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS. THE COLD WILL LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP IS IN STORE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT
IT WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF RAIN. COOLER WEATHER
RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
1020 PM UPDATE...
OTHER THAN SOME OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS OVER THE ISLANDS AND A NARROW
BAND OF CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH MA SKIES ARE CLEAR. AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES NW OCEAN CLOUDS WILL PUSH FURTHER S. MODELS INDICATE
SOME LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE MAY SPILL INTO THE BERKSHIRES OVERNIGHT
IN THE FORM OF SOME CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FLURRY...OTHERWISE
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OTHER CONCERN TONIGHT IS THE WEST LOW LEVEL FLOW BRINGING
LEFTOVER LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE EAST FROM LAKE ERIE. SOME OF THIS
MAY SPILL OVER THE BERKSHIRES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TYPICALLY
THE BULK OF ANY LEFTOVER MOISTURE STOPS AT THE BERKSHIRES. AFTER
THE INITIAL CLOUD BAND /NOTED ABOVE/ MOVES THROUGH...THE FORECAST
WILL EXPECT PATCHY CLOUDS MAINLY WEST OF THE CT RIVER.

COLD ADVECTION WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 20S MOST PLACES. THIS ADVECTION WILL ALSO DRAW
GUSTY WEST WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE BUT A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN WE
HAD DURING THE DAY. OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...
COLD DAY BY LATE NOV STANDARDS WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S /NORMAL
HIGH AROUND 50/ AND A BRISK WNW WIND WILL YIELD WIND CHILLS IN THE
20S /TEENS HIGHER TERRAIN/! GEFS TEMP ANOMALIES INDICATE 850 TEMPS
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND 18Z FRI ARE ABOUT -2 STD WITH VALUES
AROUND -14C. SO DESPITE A WELL MIXED BLYR AND AT LEAST PARTIAL
SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT MU30S WILL BE OUR MAX AFTN
TEMPS FRI AFTN. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE BRISK WNW WINDS WILL MAKE
IT FEEL MUCH COLDER.


FRIDAY NIGHT...
DRY WEATHER PREVAILS BUT ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
TEENS EXCEPT 20S IN THE URBAN AREAS INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. NOT AS MUCH OF A WIND CHILL GIVEN THE WEAKENING PGRAD
WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRES APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST BRINGS
HEIGHTS OVER NEW ENGLAND BACK TO NORMAL DURING THE WEEKEND AND ABOVE
NORMAL EARLY WEEK. SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE JUST OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST WILL DIG AS IT MOVES TO TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE BUILDING
RIDGE WILL THEN DEFLECT THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE NORTH WHERE IT MERGES
WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THIS MEANS A BROAD TROUGH FORMING OVER THE CENTER OF THE
NATION EARLY WEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS. THIS BROAD TROUGH
SLOWLY MOVES EAST TO NEW ENGLAND MID TO LATE WEEK.

FOR NEW ENGLAND THIS WOULD MEAN A WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND AND
MILD TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN COOLING TO BELOW NORMAL BY
THANKSGIVING.

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE ECWMF
IS THEN FASTER IN MIGRATING THE PLAINS TROUGH THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
AND OFF TO THE EAST WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS THE TROUGH AXIS TO OUR
WEST THROUGH THURSDAY. MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE
THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE DAILIES...

SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THE DAY WITH THE
AXIS CROSSING DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD TURN THE WIND
SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON. INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT BUT EXPECT MOST
CLOUDS TO BE MID AND HIGH LEVEL. WITH THE DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT THE MIXING REACHES ONLY TO 950 MB WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC
TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

SATURDAY NIGHT...INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS AS A NORTHERN
STREAM COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. VERTICAL
DISTRIBUTION IS SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR PCPN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT
WARM ADVECTION LIFT IS NEGLIGIBLE. JET DYNAMICS IS QUESTIONABLE.
CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES. THE QUESTION OF PTYPE THEN
COMES UP.  TEMPS WILL BE STARTING OUT IN THE 30S AND MAY COOL A
LITTLE BELOW FREEZING BEFORE THE CLOUDS THICKEN. THIS WOULD CAUSE
SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FREEZING SPRINKLES.  THE BEST CHANCE
WOULD BE IN AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF I-495. BUT IF THE CLOUDS MOVE IN
AND THICKEN A LITTLE FASTER...TEMPS WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING AND
PCPN...IF ANY...WOULD BE LIGHT RAIN. WE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH A MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN AS NOTED
ABOVE.

SUNDAY...UPPER FLOW REMAINS WEST-EAST SO THAT THE NORTHERN COLD
FRONT IS DOUBTFUL TO MAKE IT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  EXPECT
ANY PRECIP TO MOVE OUT EARLY WITH CLOUDS BREAKING TO ALLOW SOME
SUNSHINE. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WARM A FEW DEGREES AND
SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY... THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH TO THE
GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A WARM FRONT NORTH TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.  A
STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTH JET WILL GENERATE FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT
AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION.  TIMING OF THIS JET WOULD INDICATE THE
LIFT ARRIVES AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY AFTER. WE EXPECT RAIN TO
DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND THIS TIME.  MODELS INDICATE
THE JET WILL BE 60-65 KNOTS AND COULD GENERATE SOME GUSTY WINDS
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. PRECIP WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO TOP OUT BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.0 INCHES WHICH WOULD BE A LITTLE OVER
1 STD DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL...SO TORRENTIAL RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED.

THE WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD DIMINISH THE COVERAGE OF THE RAIN TO SHOWERS.  THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...ENDING AS THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWINGS OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY...THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAST THE COLD FRONT
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.  THE GFS SOLUTION KEEPS A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND A STRONG JET OVERHEAD. THE COLD FRONT WOULD HAVE
DIFFICULTY MOVING EAST IN SUCH AN ENVIRONMENT. THE ECMWF SOLUTION
SHOWS A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT THAT WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MOVE THE
FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND OFF TO THE EAST. WE HAVE KEPT A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY IN EASTERN MASS BUT TRENDED TOWARD PARTIAL
CLEARING AND COOLER WEATHER.

WEDNESDAY-THANKSGIVING DAY...THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS
AMPLIFIES MIDWEEK...AND SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW. LOW PRESSURE WAVES
MOVING UP THE OFFSHORE COLD FRONT MAY KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
EASTERN MASS/RI ON WEDNESDAY BUT OTHERWISE WE HAVE CONTINUED THE
TREND TO COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER AS WE MOVE INTO THE HOLIDAY

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...WEST WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT. VFR.

FRI...VFR BUT GUSTY WNW WINDS 20-25 KT. LOW RISK OF BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS IN AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER.

FRI NIGHT...
VFR WITH DIMINISHING WNW WINDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY...
VFR.  SW WIND 40 KNOTS AT 2000 FEET...POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR. CLOUDS MOVE IN AT NIGHT...BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN
LIGHT SPRINKLES ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. COULD BE LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE/FREEZING SPRINKLES NORTH AND WEST OF I-495.

SUNDAY...
VFR. DIMINISHING WIND.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...CIGS/VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR/IFR IN RAIN/FOG.
SOUTH WIND AT 2000 FEET INCREASES TO 60-65 KNOTS ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN LATE NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AND MAY GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND
OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THAT AREA. CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVE TO VFR
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT NIGHT AND SHOULD
GENERATE BRIEF MVFR IN SHOWERS. WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SSW TO WSW WITH
THE WIND SHIFT.

TUESDAY...VFR. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN MASS/RI

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE THRU FRI NIGHT.

TONIGHT...GUSTY W/NW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT AND LOW RISK OF
ISOLATED GUSTS TO 35 KT. WE LOWERED GALES TO SCA FOR BOS HARBOR
AND NARRAGANSETT BAY. MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS.

FRI...WNW WINDS UP TO 35 KT. OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WELL
OFFSHORE.

FRI NIGHT...WNW WINDS SLOWLY EASE. DESPITE SUBFREEZING TEMPS AND
MODEST WNW WINDS OCEAN TEMPS STILL TOO WARM FOR ANY FREEZING SPRAY
CONCERNS WITH NEAR SHORE WATER TEMPS IN THE MU40S.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY... SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS. SEAS BUILD TO 5-6 FEET DURING THE DAY AND 5-8 FEET SATURDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO 30 KNOTS DURING THE DAY
AND THEN DIMINISH IN THE EVENING. SEAS 5-8 FEET WILL DIMINISH IN THE
EVENING.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...A WARM FRONT MOVES UP ACROSS THE WATERS.
VSBYS WILL LOWER TO 1-3 MILES IN RAIN AND FOG STARTING AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE MORNING. STRONG SOUTH
WINDS...ROUGHLY 60-65 KNOTS...AT 2000 FEET ALTITUDE WILL MOVE OVER
THE WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SOME OF THIS
WIND MAY BE DRAWN TO THE SURFACE IN HEAVIER BURSTS OF RAIN. AT THE
LEAST...SOUTH WINDS WILL BE NEAR GALE FORCE FOR A TIME AND THEN
LINGER ABOVE 25 KNOTS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL DRIVE SEAS TO
5-10 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.

TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST NEAR SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.
SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH BUT REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE EXPOSED
WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ230-236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...KJC/NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/NOCERA
MARINE...WTB/KJC/NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 202358
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
658 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT DELIVERS A REINFORCING SURGE OF BLUSTERY AND
UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS. THE COLD WILL LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP IS IN STORE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT
IT WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF RAIN. COOLER WEATHER
RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A BAND OF CLOUDS ALONG OR JUST BEHIND THE
SURFACE WIND SHIFT. THE CLOUDS PRODUCED SOME FLURRIES IN THE
BERKSHIRES...AND RADAR AT 645 PM SHOWED LIGHT ECHOES FROM
MANCHESTER NH TO THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES...WHICH MIGHT HAVE A FEW
FLURRIES. THESE ECHOES SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MASS AND
SOUTHERN NH AND MOVE TO OUR EAST BY MIDNIGHT.

OTHER CONCERN TONIGHT IS THE WEST LOW LEVEL FLOW BRINGING LEFTOVER
LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE EAST FROM LAKE ERIE. SOME OF THIS MAY SPILL
OVER THE BERKSHIRES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TYPICALLY THE BULK
OF ANY LEFTOVER MOISTURE STOPS AT THE BERKSHIRES. AFTER THE INITIAL
CLOUD BAND /NOTED ABOVE/ MOVES THROUGH...THE FORECAST WILL EXPECT
PATCHY CLOUDS MAINLY WEST OF THE CT RIVER.

COLD ADVECTION WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 20S MOST PLACES. THIS ADVECTION WILL ALSO DRAW
GUSTY WEST WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE BUT A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN WE
HAD DURING THE DAY. OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...
COLD DAY BY LATE NOV STANDARDS WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S /NORMAL
HIGH AROUND 50/ AND A BRISK WNW WIND WILL YIELD WIND CHILLS IN THE
20S /TEENS HIGHER TERRAIN/! GEFS TEMP ANOMALIES INDICATE 850 TEMPS
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND 18Z FRI ARE ABOUT -2 STD WITH VALUES
AROUND -14C. SO DESPITE A WELL MIXED BLYR AND AT LEAST PARTIAL
SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT MU30S WILL BE OUR MAX AFTN
TEMPS FRI AFTN. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE BRISK WNW WINDS WILL MAKE
IT FEEL MUCH COLDER.


FRIDAY NIGHT...
DRY WEATHER PREVAILS BUT ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
TEENS EXCEPT 20S IN THE URBAN AREAS INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. NOT AS MUCH OF A WIND CHILL GIVEN THE WEAKENING PGRAD
WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRES APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST BRINGS
HEIGHTS OVER NEW ENGLAND BACK TO NORMAL DURING THE WEEKEND AND ABOVE
NORMAL EARLY WEEK. SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE JUST OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST WILL DIG AS IT MOVES TO TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE BUILDING
RIDGE WILL THEN DEFLECT THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE NORTH WHERE IT MERGES
WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THIS MEANS A BROAD TROUGH FORMING OVER THE CENTER OF THE
NATION EARLY WEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS. THIS BROAD TROUGH
SLOWLY MOVES EAST TO NEW ENGLAND MID TO LATE WEEK.

FOR NEW ENGLAND THIS WOULD MEAN A WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND AND
MILD TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN COOLING TO BELOW NORMAL BY
THANKSGIVING.

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE ECWMF
IS THEN FASTER IN MIGRATING THE PLAINS TROUGH THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
AND OFF TO THE EAST WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS THE TROUGH AXIS TO OUR
WEST THROUGH THURSDAY. MODERATE TO HIGH FORECEST CONFIDENCE THROUGH
TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE DAILIES...

SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THE DAY WITH THE
AXIS CROSSING DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD TURN THE WIND
SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON. INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT BUT EXPECT MOST
CLOUDS TO BE MID AND HIGH LEVEL. WITH THE DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT THE MIXING REACHES ONLY TO 950 MB WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC
TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

SATURDAY NIGHT...INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS AS A NORTHERN
STREAM COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. VERTICAL
DISTRIBUTION IS SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR PCPN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT
WARM ADVECTION LIFT IS NEGLIGIBLE. JET DYNAMICS IS QUESTIONABLE.
CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES. THE QUESTION OF PTYPE THEN
COMES UP.  TEMPS WILL BE STARTING OUT IN THE 30S AND MAY COOL A
LITTLE BELOW FREEZING BEFORE THE CLOUDS THICKEN. THIS WOULD CAUSE
SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FREEZING SPRINKLES.  THE BEST CHANCE
WOULD BE IN AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF I-495. BUT IF THE CLOUDS MOVE IN
AND THICKEN A LITTLE FASTER...TEMPS WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING AND
PCPN...IF ANY...WOULD BE LIGHT RAIN. WE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH A MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN AS NOTED
ABOVE.

SUNDAY...UPPER FLOW REMAINS WEST-EAST SO THAT THE NORTHERN COLD
FRONT IS DOUBTFUL TO MAKE IT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  EXPECT
ANY PRECIP TO MOVE OUT EARLY WITH CLOUDS BREAKING TO ALLOW SOME
SUNSHINE. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WARM A FEW DEGREES AND
SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY... THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH TO THE
GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A WARM FRONT NORTH TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.  A
STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTH JET WILL GENERATE FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT
AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION.  TIMING OF THIS JET WOULD INDICATE THE
LIFT ARRIVES AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY AFTER. WE EXPECT RAIN TO
DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND THIS TIME.  MODELS INDICATE
THE JET WILL BE 60-65 KNOTS AND COULD GENERATE SOME GUSTY WINDS
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. PRECIP WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO TOP OUT BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.0 INCHES WHICH WOULD BE A LITTLE OVER
1 STD DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL...SO TORRENTIAL RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED.

THE WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD DIMINISH THE COVERAGE OF THE RAIN TO SHOWERS.  THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...ENDING AS THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWINGS OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY...THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAST THE COLD FRONT
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.  THE GFS SOLUTION KEEPS A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND A STRONG JET OVERHEAD. THE COLD FRONT WOULD HAVE
DIFFICULTY MOVING EAST IN SUCH AN ENVIRONMENT. THE ECMWF SOLUTION
SHOWS A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT THAT WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MOVE THE
FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND OFF TO THE EAST. WE HAVE KEPT A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY IN EASTERN MASS BUT TRENDED TOWARD PARTIAL
CLEARING AND COOLER WEATHER.

WEDNESDAY-THANKSGIVING DAY...THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS AMPLIFYS
MIDWEEK...AND SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW.  LOW PRESSURE WAVES MOVING UP
THE OFFSHORE COLD FRONT MAY KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN EASTERN
MASS/RI ON WEDNESDAY BUT OTHERWISE WE HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND TO
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER AS WE MOVE INTO THE HOLIDAY

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...
WEST WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT. VFR BUT VERY LOW RISK OF BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN MASS
AND SOUTHERN NH.

FRI...
VFR BUT GUSTY WNW WINDS 20-25 KT. LOW RISK OF BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS IN AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER.

FRI NIGHT...
VFR WITH DIMINISHING WNW WINDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY...
VFR.  SW WIND 40 KNOTS AT 2000 FEET...POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR. CLOUDS MOVE IN AT NIGHT...BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN
LIGHT SPRINKLES ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. COULD BE LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE/FREEZING SPRINKLES NORTH AND WEST OF I-495.

SUNDAY...
VFR. DIMINISHING WIND.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...CIGS/VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR/IFR IN RAIN/FOG.
SOUTH WIND AT 2000 FEET INCREASES TO 60-65 KNOTS ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN LATE NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AND MAY GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND
OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THAT AREA. CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVE TO VFR
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT NIGHT AND SHOULD
GENERATE BRIEF MVFR IN SHOWERS. WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SSW TO WSW WITH
THE WIND SHIFT.

TUESDAY...VFR. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN MASS/RI

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE THRU FRI NIGHT.

TONIGHT...GUSTY SW WINDS BECOME WESTERLY WITH PASSAGE OF SECONDARY
COLD FRONT. WIND SPEEDS MAINLY 20-30 KT WITH LOW RISK OF ISOLATED
GUSTS TO 35 KT. LONG SW FETCH HAS RESULTED IN LARGE SEAS ON THE
SOUTHERN WATERS WITH HEIGHTS UP TO 8 FT. OTHER THAN ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWER THIS EVENING/SNOW SHOWER AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAINLY DRY
WEATHER PREVAILS.

FRI...WNW WINDS UP TO 35 KT. OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WELL
OFFSHORE.

FRI NIGHT...WNW WINDS SLOWLY EASE. DESPITE SUBFREEZING TEMPS AND
MODEST WNW WINDS OCEAN TEMPS STILL TOO WARM FOR ANY FREEZING SPRAY
CONCERNS WITH NEAR SHORE WATER TEMPS IN THE MU40S.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY... SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS. SEAS BUILD TO 5-6 FEET DURING THE DAY AND 5-8 FEET SATURDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO 30 KNOTS DURING THE DAY
AND THEN DIMINISH IN THE EVENING. SEAS 5-8 FEET WILL DIMINISH IN THE
EVENING.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...A WARM FRONT MOVES UP ACROSS THE WATERS.
VSBYS WILL LOWER TO 1-3 MILES IN RAIN AND FOG STARTING AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE MORNING. STRONG SOUTH
WINDS...ROUGHLY 60-65 KNOTS...AT 2000 FEET ALTITUDE WILL MOVE OVER
THE WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SOME OF THIS
WIND MAY BE DRAWN TO THE SURFACE IN HEAVIER BURSTS OF RAIN. AT THE
LEAST...SOUTH WINDS WILL BE NEAR GALE FORCE FOR A TIME AND THEN
LINGER ABOVE 25 KNOTS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL DRIVE SEAS TO
5-10 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.

TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST NEAR SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.
SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH BUT REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE EXPOSED
WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ230>237-250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...WTB/NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/NOCERA
MARINE...WTB/NOCERA



000
FXUS61 KBOX 202113
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
413 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT DELIVERS A REINFORCING SURGE OF BLUSTERY AND
UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A
SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP IS IN STORE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT IT WILL
LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. COOLER WEATHER RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

TONIGHT...
SECONDARY COLD FRONT/TRAILING SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT TOWARD SUNRISE FRI. TRUE COLD AIR IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE THUS STRONGER CAA ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONLY
CONCERN TONIGHT IS AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY PER
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS...LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE MAY SPILL OVER THE
BERKSHIRES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GIVEN THESE POTENTIAL LAKE
EFFECT STREAMERS ARE ON THE MESOSCALE NONE OF THE HIGH RES
GUIDANCE /INCLUDING RAP13 AND HRRR/ ARE SIMULATING THESE BANDS
VERY WELL ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE SOURCE REGION OF THE GRTLKS.
THUS WILL PLAY THE FORECAST CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW AND JUST SAY
CHANCE OF FLURRIES ESPECIALLY NEAR THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF WESTERN
MA /WEST OF I-91/ INTO SOUTHWEST NH. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS SPILLING OVER THE
BERKS. OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT WITH GUSTY SW WINDS
BECOMING WEST OVERNIGHT AND SLACKENING A BIT AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

FRIDAY...
COLD DAY BY LATE NOV STANDARDS WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S /NORMAL
HIGH AROUND 50/ AND A BRISK WNW WIND WILL YIELD WIND CHILLS IN THE
20S /TEENS HIGHER TERRAIN/! GEFS TEMP ANOMALIES INDICATE 850 TEMPS
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND 18Z FRI ARE ABOUT -2 STD WITH VALUES
AROUND -14C. SO DESPITE A WELL MIXED BLYR AND AT LEAST PARTIAL
SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT MU30S WILL BE OUR MAX AFTN
TEMPS FRI AFTN. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE BRISK WNW WINDS WILL MAKE
IT FEEL MUCH COLDER.


FRIDAY NIGHT...
DRY WEATHER PREVAILS BUT ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
TEENS EXCEPT 20S IN THE URBAN AREAS INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. NOT AS MUCH OF A WIND CHILL GIVEN THE WEAKENING PGRAD
WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRES APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

BIG PICTURE... BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST BRINGS
HEIGHTS OVER NEW ENGLAND BACK TO NORMAL DURING THE WEEKEND AND ABOVE
NORMAL EARLY WEEK. SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE JUST OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST WILL DIG AS IT MOVES TO TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE BUILDING
RIDGE WILL THEN DEFLECT THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE NORTH WHERE IT MERGES
WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THIS MEANS A BROAD TROUGH FORMING OVER THE CENTER OF THE
NATION EARLY WEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS. THIS BROAD TROUGH
SLOWLY MOVES EAST TO NEW ENGLAND MID TO LATE WEEK.

FOR NEW ENGLAND THIS WOULD MEAN A WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND AND
MILD TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN COOLING TO BELOW NORMAL BY
THANKSGIVING.

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE ECWMF
IS THEN FASTER IN MIGRATING THE PLAINS TROUGH THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
AND OFF TO THE EAST WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS THE TROUGH AXIS TO OUR
WEST THROUGH THURSDAY. MODERATE TO HIGH FORECEST CONFIDENCE THROUGH
TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE DAILIES...

SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THE DAY WITH THE
AXIS CROSSING DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD TURN THE WIND
SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON. INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT BUT EXPECT MOST
CLOUDS TO BE MID AND HIGH LEVEL. WITH THE DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT THE MIXING REACHES ONLY TO 950 MB WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC
TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

SATURDAY NIGHT...INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS AS A NORTHERN
STREAM COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. VERTICAL
DISTRIBUTION IS SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR PCPN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT
WARM ADVECTION LIFT IS NEGLIGIBLE. JET DYNAMICS IS QUESTIONABLE.
CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES. THE QUESTION OF PTYPE THEN
COMES UP.  TEMPS WILL BE STARTING OUT IN THE 30S AND MAY COOL A
LITTLE BELOW FREEZING BEFORE THE CLOUDS THICKEN. THIS WOULD CAUSE
SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FREEZING SPRINKLES.  THE BEST CHANCE
WOULD BE IN AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF I-495. BUT IF THE CLOUDS MOVE IN
AND THICKEN A LITTLE FASTER...TEMPS WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING AND
PCPN...IF ANY...WOULD BE LIGHT RAIN. WE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH A MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN AS NOTED
ABOVE.

SUNDAY...UPPER FLOW REMAINS WEST-EAST SO THAT THE NORTHERN COLD
FRONT IS DOUBTFUL TO MAKE IT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  EXPECT
ANY PRECIP TO MOVE OUT EARLY WITH CLOUDS BREAKING TO ALLOW SOME
SUNSHINE. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WARM A FEW DEGREES AND
SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY... THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH TO THE
GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A WARM FRONT NORTH TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.  A
STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTH JET WILL GENERATE FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT
AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION.  TIMING OF THIS JET WOULD INDICATE THE
LIFT ARRIVES AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY AFTER. WE EXPECT RAIN TO
DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND THIS TIME.  MODELS INDICATE
THE JET WILL BE 60-65 KNOTS AND COULD GENERATE SOME GUSTY WINDS
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. PRECIP WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO TOP OUT BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.0 INCHES WHICH WOULD BE A LITTLE OVER
1 STD DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL...SO TORRENTIAL RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED.

THE WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD DIMINISH THE COVERAGE OF THE RAIN TO SHOWERS.  THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...ENDING AS THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWINGS OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY...THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAST THE COLD FRONT
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.  THE GFS SOLUTION KEEPS A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND A STRONG JET OVERHEAD. THE COLD FRONT WOULD HAVE
DIFFICULTY MOVING EAST IN SUCH AN ENVIRONMENT. THE ECMWF SOLUTION
SHOWS A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT THAT WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MOVE THE
FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND OFF TO THE EAST. WE HAVE KEPT A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY IN EASTERN MASS BUT TRENDED TOWARD PARTIAL
CLEARING AND COOLER WEATHER.

WEDNESDAY-THANKSGIVING DAY...THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS AMPLIFYS
MIDWEEK...AND SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW.  LOW PRESSURE WAVES MOVING UP
THE OFFSHORE COLD FRONT MAY KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN EASTERN
MASS/RI ON WEDNESDAY BUT OTHERWISE WE HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND TO
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER AS WE MOVE INTO THE HOLIDAY


&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THRU 00Z/7PM... VFR WITH GUSTY SW WINDS UP TO 30-35 KT. DRY
WEATHER PREVAILS.

AFTER 00Z/7PM...
GUSTY SW WINDS BECOME WEST 20-25 KT. VFR BUT LOW RISK OF BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER.

FRI...
VFR BUT GUSTY WNW WINDS 20-25 KT. LOW RISK OF BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS IN AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER.

FRI NIGHT...
VFR WITH DIMINISHING WNW WINDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VERY LOW RISK OF BRIEF MVFR IN
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER TONIGHT INTO FRI.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VERY LOW RISK OF BRIEF MVFR IN
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER TONIGHT INTO FRI.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY...
VFR.  SW WIND 40 KNOTS AT 2000 FEET...POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR. CLOUDS MOVE IN AT NIGHT...BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN
LIGHT SPRINKLES ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. COULD BE LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE/FREEZING SPRINKLES NORTH AND WEST OF I-495.

SUNDAY...
VFR. DIMINISHING WIND.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...CIGS/VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR/IFR IN RAIN/FOG.
SOUTH WIND AT 2000 FEET INCREASES TO 60-65 KNOTS ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN LATE NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AND MAY GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND
OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THAT AREA. CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVE TO VFR
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT NIGHT AND SHOULD
GENERATE BRIEF MVFR IN SHOWERS. WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SSW TO WSW WITH
THE WIND SHIFT.

TUESDAY...VFR. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN MASS/RI
&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE THRU FRI NIGHT.

TONIGHT...GUSTY SW WINDS BECOME WESTERLY WITH PASSAGE OF SECONDARY
COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS MAINLY 20-30 KT WITH LOW RISK
OF ISOLATED GUSTS TO 35 KT. LONG SW FETCH HAS RESULTED IN LARGE SEAS
ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH HEIGHTS UP TO 8 FT. OTHER THAN ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWER THIS EVENING/SNOW SHOWER AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAINLY DRY
WEATHER PREVAILS.

FRI...WNW WINDS UP TO 35 KT. OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WELL
OFFSHORE.

FRI NIGHT...WNW WINDS SLOWLY EASE. DESPITE SUBFREEZING TEMPS AND
MODEST WNW WINDS OCEAN TEMPS STILL TOO WARM FOR ANY FREEZING SPRAY
CONCERNS WITH NEAR SHORE WATER TEMPS IN THE MU40S.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY... SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS. SEAS BUILD TO 5-6 FEET DURING THE DAY AND 5-8 FEET SATURDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO 30 KNOTS DURING THE DAY
AND THEN DIMINISH IN THE EVENING. SEAS 5-8 FEET WILL DIMINISH IN THE
EVENING.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...A WARM FRONT MOVES UP ACROSS THE WATERS.
VSBYS WILL LOWER TO 1-3 MILES IN RAIN AND FOG STARTING AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE MORNING. STRONG SOUTH
WINDS...ROUGHLY 60-65 KNOTS...AT 2000 FEET ALTITUDE WILL MOVE OVER
THE WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SOME OF THIS
WIND MAY BE DRAWN TO THE SURFACE IN HEAVIER BURSTS OF RAIN. AT THE
LEAST...SOUTH WINDS WILL BE NEAR GALE FORCE FOR A TIME AND THEN
LINGER ABOVE 25 KNOTS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL DRIVE SEAS TO
5-10 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.

TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST NEAR SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.
SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH BUT REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE EXPOSED
WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ230>237-250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/NOCERA
MARINE...WTB/NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 202113
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
413 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT DELIVERS A REINFORCING SURGE OF BLUSTERY AND
UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A
SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP IS IN STORE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT IT WILL
LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. COOLER WEATHER RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

TONIGHT...
SECONDARY COLD FRONT/TRAILING SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT TOWARD SUNRISE FRI. TRUE COLD AIR IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE THUS STRONGER CAA ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONLY
CONCERN TONIGHT IS AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY PER
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS...LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE MAY SPILL OVER THE
BERKSHIRES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GIVEN THESE POTENTIAL LAKE
EFFECT STREAMERS ARE ON THE MESOSCALE NONE OF THE HIGH RES
GUIDANCE /INCLUDING RAP13 AND HRRR/ ARE SIMULATING THESE BANDS
VERY WELL ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE SOURCE REGION OF THE GRTLKS.
THUS WILL PLAY THE FORECAST CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW AND JUST SAY
CHANCE OF FLURRIES ESPECIALLY NEAR THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF WESTERN
MA /WEST OF I-91/ INTO SOUTHWEST NH. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS SPILLING OVER THE
BERKS. OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT WITH GUSTY SW WINDS
BECOMING WEST OVERNIGHT AND SLACKENING A BIT AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

FRIDAY...
COLD DAY BY LATE NOV STANDARDS WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S /NORMAL
HIGH AROUND 50/ AND A BRISK WNW WIND WILL YIELD WIND CHILLS IN THE
20S /TEENS HIGHER TERRAIN/! GEFS TEMP ANOMALIES INDICATE 850 TEMPS
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND 18Z FRI ARE ABOUT -2 STD WITH VALUES
AROUND -14C. SO DESPITE A WELL MIXED BLYR AND AT LEAST PARTIAL
SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT MU30S WILL BE OUR MAX AFTN
TEMPS FRI AFTN. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE BRISK WNW WINDS WILL MAKE
IT FEEL MUCH COLDER.


FRIDAY NIGHT...
DRY WEATHER PREVAILS BUT ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
TEENS EXCEPT 20S IN THE URBAN AREAS INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. NOT AS MUCH OF A WIND CHILL GIVEN THE WEAKENING PGRAD
WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRES APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

BIG PICTURE... BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST BRINGS
HEIGHTS OVER NEW ENGLAND BACK TO NORMAL DURING THE WEEKEND AND ABOVE
NORMAL EARLY WEEK. SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE JUST OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST WILL DIG AS IT MOVES TO TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE BUILDING
RIDGE WILL THEN DEFLECT THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE NORTH WHERE IT MERGES
WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THIS MEANS A BROAD TROUGH FORMING OVER THE CENTER OF THE
NATION EARLY WEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS. THIS BROAD TROUGH
SLOWLY MOVES EAST TO NEW ENGLAND MID TO LATE WEEK.

FOR NEW ENGLAND THIS WOULD MEAN A WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND AND
MILD TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN COOLING TO BELOW NORMAL BY
THANKSGIVING.

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE ECWMF
IS THEN FASTER IN MIGRATING THE PLAINS TROUGH THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
AND OFF TO THE EAST WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS THE TROUGH AXIS TO OUR
WEST THROUGH THURSDAY. MODERATE TO HIGH FORECEST CONFIDENCE THROUGH
TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE DAILIES...

SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THE DAY WITH THE
AXIS CROSSING DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD TURN THE WIND
SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON. INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT BUT EXPECT MOST
CLOUDS TO BE MID AND HIGH LEVEL. WITH THE DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT THE MIXING REACHES ONLY TO 950 MB WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC
TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

SATURDAY NIGHT...INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS AS A NORTHERN
STREAM COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. VERTICAL
DISTRIBUTION IS SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR PCPN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT
WARM ADVECTION LIFT IS NEGLIGIBLE. JET DYNAMICS IS QUESTIONABLE.
CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES. THE QUESTION OF PTYPE THEN
COMES UP.  TEMPS WILL BE STARTING OUT IN THE 30S AND MAY COOL A
LITTLE BELOW FREEZING BEFORE THE CLOUDS THICKEN. THIS WOULD CAUSE
SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FREEZING SPRINKLES.  THE BEST CHANCE
WOULD BE IN AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF I-495. BUT IF THE CLOUDS MOVE IN
AND THICKEN A LITTLE FASTER...TEMPS WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING AND
PCPN...IF ANY...WOULD BE LIGHT RAIN. WE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH A MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN AS NOTED
ABOVE.

SUNDAY...UPPER FLOW REMAINS WEST-EAST SO THAT THE NORTHERN COLD
FRONT IS DOUBTFUL TO MAKE IT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  EXPECT
ANY PRECIP TO MOVE OUT EARLY WITH CLOUDS BREAKING TO ALLOW SOME
SUNSHINE. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WARM A FEW DEGREES AND
SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY... THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH TO THE
GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A WARM FRONT NORTH TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.  A
STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTH JET WILL GENERATE FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT
AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION.  TIMING OF THIS JET WOULD INDICATE THE
LIFT ARRIVES AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY AFTER. WE EXPECT RAIN TO
DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND THIS TIME.  MODELS INDICATE
THE JET WILL BE 60-65 KNOTS AND COULD GENERATE SOME GUSTY WINDS
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. PRECIP WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO TOP OUT BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.0 INCHES WHICH WOULD BE A LITTLE OVER
1 STD DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL...SO TORRENTIAL RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED.

THE WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD DIMINISH THE COVERAGE OF THE RAIN TO SHOWERS.  THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...ENDING AS THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWINGS OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY...THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAST THE COLD FRONT
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.  THE GFS SOLUTION KEEPS A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND A STRONG JET OVERHEAD. THE COLD FRONT WOULD HAVE
DIFFICULTY MOVING EAST IN SUCH AN ENVIRONMENT. THE ECMWF SOLUTION
SHOWS A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT THAT WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MOVE THE
FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND OFF TO THE EAST. WE HAVE KEPT A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY IN EASTERN MASS BUT TRENDED TOWARD PARTIAL
CLEARING AND COOLER WEATHER.

WEDNESDAY-THANKSGIVING DAY...THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS AMPLIFYS
MIDWEEK...AND SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW.  LOW PRESSURE WAVES MOVING UP
THE OFFSHORE COLD FRONT MAY KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN EASTERN
MASS/RI ON WEDNESDAY BUT OTHERWISE WE HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND TO
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER AS WE MOVE INTO THE HOLIDAY


&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THRU 00Z/7PM... VFR WITH GUSTY SW WINDS UP TO 30-35 KT. DRY
WEATHER PREVAILS.

AFTER 00Z/7PM...
GUSTY SW WINDS BECOME WEST 20-25 KT. VFR BUT LOW RISK OF BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER.

FRI...
VFR BUT GUSTY WNW WINDS 20-25 KT. LOW RISK OF BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS IN AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER.

FRI NIGHT...
VFR WITH DIMINISHING WNW WINDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VERY LOW RISK OF BRIEF MVFR IN
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER TONIGHT INTO FRI.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VERY LOW RISK OF BRIEF MVFR IN
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER TONIGHT INTO FRI.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY...
VFR.  SW WIND 40 KNOTS AT 2000 FEET...POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR. CLOUDS MOVE IN AT NIGHT...BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN
LIGHT SPRINKLES ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. COULD BE LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE/FREEZING SPRINKLES NORTH AND WEST OF I-495.

SUNDAY...
VFR. DIMINISHING WIND.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...CIGS/VSBYS LOWER TO MVFR/IFR IN RAIN/FOG.
SOUTH WIND AT 2000 FEET INCREASES TO 60-65 KNOTS ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN LATE NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AND MAY GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND
OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THAT AREA. CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVE TO VFR
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT NIGHT AND SHOULD
GENERATE BRIEF MVFR IN SHOWERS. WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SSW TO WSW WITH
THE WIND SHIFT.

TUESDAY...VFR. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN MASS/RI
&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE THRU FRI NIGHT.

TONIGHT...GUSTY SW WINDS BECOME WESTERLY WITH PASSAGE OF SECONDARY
COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS MAINLY 20-30 KT WITH LOW RISK
OF ISOLATED GUSTS TO 35 KT. LONG SW FETCH HAS RESULTED IN LARGE SEAS
ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH HEIGHTS UP TO 8 FT. OTHER THAN ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWER THIS EVENING/SNOW SHOWER AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAINLY DRY
WEATHER PREVAILS.

FRI...WNW WINDS UP TO 35 KT. OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WELL
OFFSHORE.

FRI NIGHT...WNW WINDS SLOWLY EASE. DESPITE SUBFREEZING TEMPS AND
MODEST WNW WINDS OCEAN TEMPS STILL TOO WARM FOR ANY FREEZING SPRAY
CONCERNS WITH NEAR SHORE WATER TEMPS IN THE MU40S.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY... SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS. SEAS BUILD TO 5-6 FEET DURING THE DAY AND 5-8 FEET SATURDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO 30 KNOTS DURING THE DAY
AND THEN DIMINISH IN THE EVENING. SEAS 5-8 FEET WILL DIMINISH IN THE
EVENING.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...A WARM FRONT MOVES UP ACROSS THE WATERS.
VSBYS WILL LOWER TO 1-3 MILES IN RAIN AND FOG STARTING AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE MORNING. STRONG SOUTH
WINDS...ROUGHLY 60-65 KNOTS...AT 2000 FEET ALTITUDE WILL MOVE OVER
THE WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SOME OF THIS
WIND MAY BE DRAWN TO THE SURFACE IN HEAVIER BURSTS OF RAIN. AT THE
LEAST...SOUTH WINDS WILL BE NEAR GALE FORCE FOR A TIME AND THEN
LINGER ABOVE 25 KNOTS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL DRIVE SEAS TO
5-10 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.

TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST NEAR SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.
SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH BUT REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE EXPOSED
WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ230>237-250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/NOCERA
MARINE...WTB/NOCERA



000
FXUS61 KBOX 201759
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1259 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...
FOLLOWED BY MORE BLUSTERY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP IS IN STORE BY SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE MILDER AIR WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED
BY RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COOLER WEATHER RETURNS BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1 PM UPDATE...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM 11 AM UPDATE. TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MU40S TO
AROUND 50 CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. MILDER THAN PREVIOUS TWO DAYS
HOWEVER THE GUSTY SW WINDS /UP TO 40 MPH/ ARE PROVIDING WIND
CHILLS IN THE 30S IN MANY LOCATIONS. PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURES
ALL OF THESE DETAILS SO NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED WITH THIS UPDATE.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

----------------------------------------------------------------

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT OVER THE GT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SNE THIS
AFTERNOON. GOOD SW LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING
DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM THE OCEAN TO THE
CAPE/ISLANDS WHERE MOCLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...CLEARING SKIES WILL MOVE IN FROM
WEST TO EAST WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE. MODERATING LOW LEVEL TEMPS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY E NEW ENG WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
REACH WELL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN TODAY...BUT
COLDER 30S IN THE INTERIOR WHERE COLD ADVECTION MORE PRONOUNCED
THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD MIXING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PROMOTE GUSTY
W/SW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH INTERIOR AND 30-35 MPH IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
MID LEVEL TROF SWINGS THROUGH NEW ENG TONIGHT WITH GOOD COLD
ADVECTION PROMOTING GUSTY W WINDS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST
WHERE GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH POSSIBLE. THE TROF PASSAGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME CLOUDS...MAINLY N ZONES AS LAKE MOISTURE IS
ADVECTED EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE TROF. ELSEWHERE...MOCLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH MINS UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S...BUT IT WILL FEEL COLDER WITH THE WIND.

FRIDAY...
MID LEVEL TROF WILL BE MOVING EAST OF NEW ENG AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THE COLUMN IS DRY WHICH WILL YIELD MOSUNNY
SKIES BUT WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPS. 850 MB TEMPS -13/-14C
SUPPORTS MAXES UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES NW HIGHER TERRAIN AND
MID/UPPER 30S COASTAL PLAIN. GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DEEP
MIXING WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER WINDY DAY WITH NW GUSTS TO 35 MPH
WHICH WILL ADD TO THE CHILL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MODERATING TEMPS THIS WEEKEND
* MUCH WARMER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
* RAINSTORM LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
20.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT REASONABLE AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MID TERM...WITH A DIVERGENCE IN SOLUTIONS AMONGST BOTH
OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES TOWARD THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE LONG
TERM. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE AGREEMENT IS THROUGH THE SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT AND PHASING OF BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY FOR SUN-MON...CONFIDENCE REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH FOR THE
TIMING OF A FAIRLY DYNAMIC AND OCCLUDING. THIS OCCLUDING SYSTEM IS
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER DEEP LONGWAVE TROF WHICH LOOKS TO DEVELOP
SIMILARLY TO THIS WEEKS COLD TROF. HOWEVER...THE AXIS IS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN AND MAY REMAIN W AND MAY NOT BE QUITE AS DEEP AS THIS
WEEKS SYSTEM. AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT THE ECMWF
HAS SHOWN BETTER CONSISTENCY WITH THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM...SO
WILL ERR ON THE SIDE OF THE ECMWF AFTER MON.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...
THE LONGWAVE TROF WHICH BROUGHT THE COLDER THAN NORMAL WEATHER
AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL MOVE TO THE E THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRES CRESTS OVER FROM THE S. THIS WILL INITIATE
MODEST RETURN FLOW WITH GULF OF MEXICO CONNECTIONS. ALTHOUGH THIS
SUGGESTS WARMER TEMPS AND HIGHER DWPTS...THE COOL AIR WILL TAKE
SOME TIME TO FULLY LEAVE THE LOW-LVLS...SO SUSPECT THAT HIGHS
REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON SAT IN SPITE OF RISING
DWPTS AND RETURN FLOW. MAINLY DRY INTO SAT NIGHT.

SUN AND MON...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE A SLOWLY OCCLUDING LOW PRES WILL GRADUALLY
APPROACH FROM THE W. FIRST IT/S WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE
INTO CENTRAL AND NRN NEW ENGLAND EARLY SUN...AND DEPENDING ON THE
MOISTURE FLUX...MAY YIELD SOME MIXED PRECIP FOR THE
INTERIOR...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED GIVEN NEAR SFC TEMPS MAY
BY BELOW FREEZING THROUGH MID MORNING. AFTER A BRIEF LULL DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS SUN...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ALONG WITH A
60 KT SLY LLJ /3 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ ALONG WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1.25 INCHES /2-3 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/. THIS
YIELDS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND RISING K-VALUES SUGGESTS
SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. ALSO...THE STRONG JET COULD YIELD GUSTY
WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND HEADLINES OR EVEN A FINE LINE
THAT COULD BRING THESE WINDS TO THE SFC. THE WHOLE SYSTEM IS
RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE HOWEVER...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL RUNS.

MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE...
UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE AND SECONDARY FRONT SWEEP THROUGH THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN...A FEW MORE SHOWERS
MAY ACCOMPANY THIS FROPA.

TUE THROUGH THU...
AS MENTIONED BEFORE...A LONGWAVE TROF REMAINS TO THE W...BUT WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRES ATTEMPTING TO NOSE OVER
FROM THE W...IT MAY BE THE DEEP COLD AIR REMAINS TO THE W. WILL
YIELD A PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WX...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON EXACTLY HOW CLOSE THE TROF GETS BY THAT POINT. FOR
NOW WILL GRADUALLY ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP FROM NEAR...TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

1 PM UPDATE...

THRU 00Z/7PM...
VFR WITH GUSTY SW WINDS UP TO 30-35 KT. DRY WEATHER PREVAILS.

AFTER 00Z/7PM...
GUSTY SW WINDS BECOME WEST 20-25 KT. VFR BUT LOW RISK OF BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER.

FRI...
VFR BUT GUSTY WNW WINDS 20-25 KT. LOW RISK OF BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS IN AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER.

FRI NIGHT...
VFR WITH DIMINISHING WNW WINDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VERY LOW RISK OF BRIEF MVFR IN
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER TONIGHT INTO FRI.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VERY LOW RISK OF BRIEF MVFR IN
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER TONIGHT INTO FRI.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN RAIN/FOG. MAY START AS A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES SUNDAY MORNING WITH A LULL INTO SUN
EVENING. BEST TIMING FOR RAIN/FOG IS LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRIDAY.

1 PM UPDATE...

SW WINDS 20-30 KT CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED GUSTY UP TO 35 KT /GALE
FORCE/. GIVEN THE LONGER FETCH MUCH LARGER SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WITH WAVES 5-9 FT. PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK THUS NO MAJOR
CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.WILL CONTINUE WITH GALES BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST GUSTS MAY BE
CLOSER TO 30 KT...RATHER THAN 35 KT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT
FOR NOW WILL LEAVE GLW AS IS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

PERSISTENT WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY WITH A FEW
PERIODS OF GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE AS COLD AIR OVER WARMER
WATERS PROMOTES GOOD MIXING. A PERIOD OF SW GALES EXPECTED TODAY
OVER OPEN WATERS ASSOCD WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET...THEN ANOTHER
PULSE POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. IT
APPEARS WINDS WILL FALL SHORT OF GALES ON FRIDAY...BUT NW GUSTS
TO 30 KT EXPECTED. ROUGH SEAS UPWARDS TO 10-12 FT OVER SOUTHERN
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDING SEAS DURING
FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF BELOW SCA CONDITIONS DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY...THEN SW WINDS AND SEAS PICK UP AGAIN SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY EVENING
THEN BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT MOVES
OVER THE WATERS. SEAS GENERALLY 5 TO 9 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ230-236-251.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ231-250.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/NOCERA/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 201759
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1259 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...
FOLLOWED BY MORE BLUSTERY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP IS IN STORE BY SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE MILDER AIR WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED
BY RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COOLER WEATHER RETURNS BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1 PM UPDATE...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM 11 AM UPDATE. TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MU40S TO
AROUND 50 CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. MILDER THAN PREVIOUS TWO DAYS
HOWEVER THE GUSTY SW WINDS /UP TO 40 MPH/ ARE PROVIDING WIND
CHILLS IN THE 30S IN MANY LOCATIONS. PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURES
ALL OF THESE DETAILS SO NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED WITH THIS UPDATE.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

----------------------------------------------------------------

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT OVER THE GT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SNE THIS
AFTERNOON. GOOD SW LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING
DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM THE OCEAN TO THE
CAPE/ISLANDS WHERE MOCLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...CLEARING SKIES WILL MOVE IN FROM
WEST TO EAST WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE. MODERATING LOW LEVEL TEMPS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY E NEW ENG WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
REACH WELL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN TODAY...BUT
COLDER 30S IN THE INTERIOR WHERE COLD ADVECTION MORE PRONOUNCED
THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD MIXING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PROMOTE GUSTY
W/SW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH INTERIOR AND 30-35 MPH IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
MID LEVEL TROF SWINGS THROUGH NEW ENG TONIGHT WITH GOOD COLD
ADVECTION PROMOTING GUSTY W WINDS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST
WHERE GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH POSSIBLE. THE TROF PASSAGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME CLOUDS...MAINLY N ZONES AS LAKE MOISTURE IS
ADVECTED EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE TROF. ELSEWHERE...MOCLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH MINS UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S...BUT IT WILL FEEL COLDER WITH THE WIND.

FRIDAY...
MID LEVEL TROF WILL BE MOVING EAST OF NEW ENG AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THE COLUMN IS DRY WHICH WILL YIELD MOSUNNY
SKIES BUT WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPS. 850 MB TEMPS -13/-14C
SUPPORTS MAXES UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES NW HIGHER TERRAIN AND
MID/UPPER 30S COASTAL PLAIN. GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DEEP
MIXING WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER WINDY DAY WITH NW GUSTS TO 35 MPH
WHICH WILL ADD TO THE CHILL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MODERATING TEMPS THIS WEEKEND
* MUCH WARMER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
* RAINSTORM LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
20.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT REASONABLE AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MID TERM...WITH A DIVERGENCE IN SOLUTIONS AMONGST BOTH
OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES TOWARD THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE LONG
TERM. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE AGREEMENT IS THROUGH THE SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT AND PHASING OF BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY FOR SUN-MON...CONFIDENCE REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH FOR THE
TIMING OF A FAIRLY DYNAMIC AND OCCLUDING. THIS OCCLUDING SYSTEM IS
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER DEEP LONGWAVE TROF WHICH LOOKS TO DEVELOP
SIMILARLY TO THIS WEEKS COLD TROF. HOWEVER...THE AXIS IS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN AND MAY REMAIN W AND MAY NOT BE QUITE AS DEEP AS THIS
WEEKS SYSTEM. AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT THE ECMWF
HAS SHOWN BETTER CONSISTENCY WITH THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM...SO
WILL ERR ON THE SIDE OF THE ECMWF AFTER MON.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...
THE LONGWAVE TROF WHICH BROUGHT THE COLDER THAN NORMAL WEATHER
AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL MOVE TO THE E THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRES CRESTS OVER FROM THE S. THIS WILL INITIATE
MODEST RETURN FLOW WITH GULF OF MEXICO CONNECTIONS. ALTHOUGH THIS
SUGGESTS WARMER TEMPS AND HIGHER DWPTS...THE COOL AIR WILL TAKE
SOME TIME TO FULLY LEAVE THE LOW-LVLS...SO SUSPECT THAT HIGHS
REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON SAT IN SPITE OF RISING
DWPTS AND RETURN FLOW. MAINLY DRY INTO SAT NIGHT.

SUN AND MON...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE A SLOWLY OCCLUDING LOW PRES WILL GRADUALLY
APPROACH FROM THE W. FIRST IT/S WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE
INTO CENTRAL AND NRN NEW ENGLAND EARLY SUN...AND DEPENDING ON THE
MOISTURE FLUX...MAY YIELD SOME MIXED PRECIP FOR THE
INTERIOR...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED GIVEN NEAR SFC TEMPS MAY
BY BELOW FREEZING THROUGH MID MORNING. AFTER A BRIEF LULL DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS SUN...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ALONG WITH A
60 KT SLY LLJ /3 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ ALONG WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1.25 INCHES /2-3 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/. THIS
YIELDS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND RISING K-VALUES SUGGESTS
SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. ALSO...THE STRONG JET COULD YIELD GUSTY
WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND HEADLINES OR EVEN A FINE LINE
THAT COULD BRING THESE WINDS TO THE SFC. THE WHOLE SYSTEM IS
RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE HOWEVER...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL RUNS.

MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE...
UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE AND SECONDARY FRONT SWEEP THROUGH THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN...A FEW MORE SHOWERS
MAY ACCOMPANY THIS FROPA.

TUE THROUGH THU...
AS MENTIONED BEFORE...A LONGWAVE TROF REMAINS TO THE W...BUT WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRES ATTEMPTING TO NOSE OVER
FROM THE W...IT MAY BE THE DEEP COLD AIR REMAINS TO THE W. WILL
YIELD A PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WX...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON EXACTLY HOW CLOSE THE TROF GETS BY THAT POINT. FOR
NOW WILL GRADUALLY ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP FROM NEAR...TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

1 PM UPDATE...

THRU 00Z/7PM...
VFR WITH GUSTY SW WINDS UP TO 30-35 KT. DRY WEATHER PREVAILS.

AFTER 00Z/7PM...
GUSTY SW WINDS BECOME WEST 20-25 KT. VFR BUT LOW RISK OF BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS IN AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER.

FRI...
VFR BUT GUSTY WNW WINDS 20-25 KT. LOW RISK OF BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS IN AN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER.

FRI NIGHT...
VFR WITH DIMINISHING WNW WINDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VERY LOW RISK OF BRIEF MVFR IN
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER TONIGHT INTO FRI.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VERY LOW RISK OF BRIEF MVFR IN
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER TONIGHT INTO FRI.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN RAIN/FOG. MAY START AS A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES SUNDAY MORNING WITH A LULL INTO SUN
EVENING. BEST TIMING FOR RAIN/FOG IS LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRIDAY.

1 PM UPDATE...

SW WINDS 20-30 KT CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED GUSTY UP TO 35 KT /GALE
FORCE/. GIVEN THE LONGER FETCH MUCH LARGER SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WITH WAVES 5-9 FT. PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK THUS NO MAJOR
CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.WILL CONTINUE WITH GALES BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST GUSTS MAY BE
CLOSER TO 30 KT...RATHER THAN 35 KT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT
FOR NOW WILL LEAVE GLW AS IS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

PERSISTENT WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY WITH A FEW
PERIODS OF GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE AS COLD AIR OVER WARMER
WATERS PROMOTES GOOD MIXING. A PERIOD OF SW GALES EXPECTED TODAY
OVER OPEN WATERS ASSOCD WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET...THEN ANOTHER
PULSE POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. IT
APPEARS WINDS WILL FALL SHORT OF GALES ON FRIDAY...BUT NW GUSTS
TO 30 KT EXPECTED. ROUGH SEAS UPWARDS TO 10-12 FT OVER SOUTHERN
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDING SEAS DURING
FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF BELOW SCA CONDITIONS DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY...THEN SW WINDS AND SEAS PICK UP AGAIN SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY EVENING
THEN BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT MOVES
OVER THE WATERS. SEAS GENERALLY 5 TO 9 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ230-236-251.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ231-250.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 201550
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1050 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...
FOLLOWED BY MORE BLUSTERY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP IS IN STORE BY SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE MILDER AIR WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED
BY RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COOLER WEATHER RETURNS BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1045 AM UPDATE...

PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.
12Z OBSERVED DOWN STREAM SOUNDING FROM OKX INDICATES MODEST LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. INCREASED
HIGHS BY A FEW DEGS GIVEN CURRENT TEMPS. INTERESTING NEAR SHORE
BUOYS AND TIDE GAGES INDICATE WATER TEMPS IN THE U40S...HOWEVER
OFFSHORE BUOYS CONSIDERABLY WARMER /TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR/
WITH BUOY 44097 SOUTH OF BID REPORTING A WATER TEMP OF 56! THIS
WILL HELP TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE L50S ACROSS THE ISLANDS WITH ACK
ALREADY AT 52!

ENJOY THE MILDER TEMPS AND SUNSHINE AS MUCH COLDER AND BLUSTERY
WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

----------------------------------------------------------------

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT OVER THE GT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SNE THIS
AFTERNOON. GOOD SW LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING
DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM THE OCEAN TO THE
CAPE/ISLANDS WHERE MOCLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...CLEARING SKIES WILL MOVE IN FROM
WEST TO EAST WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE. MODERATING LOW LEVEL TEMPS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY E NEW ENG WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
REACH WELL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN TODAY...BUT
COLDER 30S IN THE INTERIOR WHERE COLD ADVECTION MORE PRONOUNCED
THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD MIXING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PROMOTE GUSTY
W/SW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH INTERIOR AND 30-35 MPH IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
MID LEVEL TROF SWINGS THROUGH NEW ENG TONIGHT WITH GOOD COLD
ADVECTION PROMOTING GUSTY W WINDS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST
WHERE GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH POSSIBLE. THE TROF PASSAGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME CLOUDS...MAINLY N ZONES AS LAKE MOISTURE IS
ADVECTED EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE TROF. ELSEWHERE...MOCLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH MINS UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S...BUT IT WILL FEEL COLDER WITH THE WIND.

FRIDAY...
MID LEVEL TROF WILL BE MOVING EAST OF NEW ENG AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THE COLUMN IS DRY WHICH WILL YIELD MOSUNNY
SKIES BUT WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPS. 850 MB TEMPS -13/-14C
SUPPORTS MAXES UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES NW HIGHER TERRAIN AND
MID/UPPER 30S COASTAL PLAIN. GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DEEP
MIXING WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER WINDY DAY WITH NW GUSTS TO 35 MPH
WHICH WILL ADD TO THE CHILL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MODERATING TEMPS THIS WEEKEND
* MUCH WARMER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
* RAINSTORM LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
20.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT REASONABLE AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MID TERM...WITH A DIVERGENCE IN SOLUTIONS AMONGST BOTH
OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES TOWARD THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE LONG
TERM. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE AGREEMENT IS THROUGH THE SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT AND PHASING OF BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY FOR SUN-MON...CONFIDENCE REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH FOR THE
TIMING OF A FAIRLY DYNAMIC AND OCCLUDING. THIS OCCLUDING SYSTEM IS
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER DEEP LONGWAVE TROF WHICH LOOKS TO DEVELOP
SIMILARLY TO THIS WEEKS COLD TROF. HOWEVER...THE AXIS IS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN AND MAY REMAIN W AND MAY NOT BE QUITE AS DEEP AS THIS
WEEKS SYSTEM. AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT THE ECMWF
HAS SHOWN BETTER CONSISTENCY WITH THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM...SO
WILL ERR ON THE SIDE OF THE ECMWF AFTER MON.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...
THE LONGWAVE TROF WHICH BROUGHT THE COLDER THAN NORMAL WEATHER
AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL MOVE TO THE E THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRES CRESTS OVER FROM THE S. THIS WILL INITIATE
MODEST RETURN FLOW WITH GULF OF MEXICO CONNECTIONS. ALTHOUGH THIS
SUGGESTS WARMER TEMPS AND HIGHER DWPTS...THE COOL AIR WILL TAKE
SOME TIME TO FULLY LEAVE THE LOW-LVLS...SO SUSPECT THAT HIGHS
REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON SAT IN SPITE OF RISING
DWPTS AND RETURN FLOW. MAINLY DRY INTO SAT NIGHT.

SUN AND MON...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE A SLOWLY OCCLUDING LOW PRES WILL GRADUALLY
APPROACH FROM THE W. FIRST IT/S WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE
INTO CENTRAL AND NRN NEW ENGLAND EARLY SUN...AND DEPENDING ON THE
MOISTURE FLUX...MAY YIELD SOME MIXED PRECIP FOR THE
INTERIOR...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED GIVEN NEAR SFC TEMPS MAY
BY BELOW FREEZING THROUGH MID MORNING. AFTER A BRIEF LULL DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS SUN...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ALONG WITH A
60 KT SLY LLJ /3 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ ALONG WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1.25 INCHES /2-3 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/. THIS
YIELDS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND RISING K-VALUES SUGGESTS
SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. ALSO...THE STRONG JET COULD YIELD GUSTY
WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND HEADLINES OR EVEN A FINE LINE
THAT COULD BRING THESE WINDS TO THE SFC. THE WHOLE SYSTEM IS
RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE HOWEVER...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL RUNS.

MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE...
UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE AND SECONDARY FRONT SWEEP THROUGH THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN...A FEW MORE SHOWERS
MAY ACCOMPANY THIS FROPA.

TUE THROUGH THU...
AS MENTIONED BEFORE...A LONGWAVE TROF REMAINS TO THE W...BUT WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRES ATTEMPTING TO NOSE OVER
FROM THE W...IT MAY BE THE DEEP COLD AIR REMAINS TO THE W. WILL
YIELD A PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WX...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON EXACTLY HOW CLOSE THE TROF GETS BY THAT POINT. FOR
NOW WILL GRADUALLY ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP FROM NEAR...TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

1045 AM UPDATE...

NO CHANGE FROM 12Z TAFS. WIND GUSTS MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS
EARLIER THOUGHT. HOWEVER WE WILL REEVALUATE FOR THE 18Z TAFS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

--------------------------------------------------------------

TODAY...
VFR. AN ISOLATED FLURRY POSSIBLE WITH NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS. SW
WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS CAPE/ISLANDS.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS NW...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WEST WIND
GUSTS TO 25 KT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND CAPE/ISLANDS.

FRIDAY...VFR. NW WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN RAIN/FOG. MAY START AS A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES SUNDAY MORNING WITH A LULL INTO SUN
EVENING. BEST TIMING FOR RAIN/FOG IS LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRIDAY.

1045 AM UPDATE...

WILL CONTINUE WITH GALES BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST GUSTS MAY BE
CLOSER TO 30 KT...RATHER THAN 35 KT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT
FOR NOW WILL LEAVE GLW AS IS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

PERSISTENT WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY WITH A FEW
PERIODS OF GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE AS COLD AIR OVER WARMER
WATERS PROMOTES GOOD MIXING. A PERIOD OF SW GALES EXPECTED TODAY
OVER OPEN WATERS ASSOCD WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET...THEN ANOTHER
PULSE POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. IT
APPEARS WINDS WILL FALL SHORT OF GALES ON FRIDAY...BUT NW GUSTS
TO 30 KT EXPECTED. ROUGH SEAS UPWARDS TO 10-12 FT OVER SOUTHERN
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDING SEAS DURING
FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF BELOW SCA CONDITIONS DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY...THEN SW WINDS AND SEAS PICK UP AGAIN SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY EVENING
THEN BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT MOVES
OVER THE WATERS. SEAS GENERALLY 5 TO 9 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ230-236-251.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ231-250.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC/NOCERA/DOODY
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 201550
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1050 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...
FOLLOWED BY MORE BLUSTERY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP IS IN STORE BY SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE MILDER AIR WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED
BY RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COOLER WEATHER RETURNS BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1045 AM UPDATE...

PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.
12Z OBSERVED DOWN STREAM SOUNDING FROM OKX INDICATES MODEST LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. INCREASED
HIGHS BY A FEW DEGS GIVEN CURRENT TEMPS. INTERESTING NEAR SHORE
BUOYS AND TIDE GAGES INDICATE WATER TEMPS IN THE U40S...HOWEVER
OFFSHORE BUOYS CONSIDERABLY WARMER /TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR/
WITH BUOY 44097 SOUTH OF BID REPORTING A WATER TEMP OF 56! THIS
WILL HELP TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE L50S ACROSS THE ISLANDS WITH ACK
ALREADY AT 52!

ENJOY THE MILDER TEMPS AND SUNSHINE AS MUCH COLDER AND BLUSTERY
WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

----------------------------------------------------------------

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT OVER THE GT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SNE THIS
AFTERNOON. GOOD SW LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING
DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM THE OCEAN TO THE
CAPE/ISLANDS WHERE MOCLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...CLEARING SKIES WILL MOVE IN FROM
WEST TO EAST WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE. MODERATING LOW LEVEL TEMPS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY E NEW ENG WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
REACH WELL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN TODAY...BUT
COLDER 30S IN THE INTERIOR WHERE COLD ADVECTION MORE PRONOUNCED
THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD MIXING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PROMOTE GUSTY
W/SW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH INTERIOR AND 30-35 MPH IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
MID LEVEL TROF SWINGS THROUGH NEW ENG TONIGHT WITH GOOD COLD
ADVECTION PROMOTING GUSTY W WINDS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST
WHERE GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH POSSIBLE. THE TROF PASSAGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME CLOUDS...MAINLY N ZONES AS LAKE MOISTURE IS
ADVECTED EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE TROF. ELSEWHERE...MOCLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH MINS UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S...BUT IT WILL FEEL COLDER WITH THE WIND.

FRIDAY...
MID LEVEL TROF WILL BE MOVING EAST OF NEW ENG AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THE COLUMN IS DRY WHICH WILL YIELD MOSUNNY
SKIES BUT WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPS. 850 MB TEMPS -13/-14C
SUPPORTS MAXES UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES NW HIGHER TERRAIN AND
MID/UPPER 30S COASTAL PLAIN. GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DEEP
MIXING WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER WINDY DAY WITH NW GUSTS TO 35 MPH
WHICH WILL ADD TO THE CHILL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MODERATING TEMPS THIS WEEKEND
* MUCH WARMER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
* RAINSTORM LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
20.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT REASONABLE AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MID TERM...WITH A DIVERGENCE IN SOLUTIONS AMONGST BOTH
OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES TOWARD THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE LONG
TERM. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE AGREEMENT IS THROUGH THE SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT AND PHASING OF BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY FOR SUN-MON...CONFIDENCE REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH FOR THE
TIMING OF A FAIRLY DYNAMIC AND OCCLUDING. THIS OCCLUDING SYSTEM IS
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER DEEP LONGWAVE TROF WHICH LOOKS TO DEVELOP
SIMILARLY TO THIS WEEKS COLD TROF. HOWEVER...THE AXIS IS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN AND MAY REMAIN W AND MAY NOT BE QUITE AS DEEP AS THIS
WEEKS SYSTEM. AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT THE ECMWF
HAS SHOWN BETTER CONSISTENCY WITH THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM...SO
WILL ERR ON THE SIDE OF THE ECMWF AFTER MON.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...
THE LONGWAVE TROF WHICH BROUGHT THE COLDER THAN NORMAL WEATHER
AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL MOVE TO THE E THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRES CRESTS OVER FROM THE S. THIS WILL INITIATE
MODEST RETURN FLOW WITH GULF OF MEXICO CONNECTIONS. ALTHOUGH THIS
SUGGESTS WARMER TEMPS AND HIGHER DWPTS...THE COOL AIR WILL TAKE
SOME TIME TO FULLY LEAVE THE LOW-LVLS...SO SUSPECT THAT HIGHS
REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON SAT IN SPITE OF RISING
DWPTS AND RETURN FLOW. MAINLY DRY INTO SAT NIGHT.

SUN AND MON...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE A SLOWLY OCCLUDING LOW PRES WILL GRADUALLY
APPROACH FROM THE W. FIRST IT/S WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE
INTO CENTRAL AND NRN NEW ENGLAND EARLY SUN...AND DEPENDING ON THE
MOISTURE FLUX...MAY YIELD SOME MIXED PRECIP FOR THE
INTERIOR...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED GIVEN NEAR SFC TEMPS MAY
BY BELOW FREEZING THROUGH MID MORNING. AFTER A BRIEF LULL DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS SUN...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ALONG WITH A
60 KT SLY LLJ /3 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ ALONG WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1.25 INCHES /2-3 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/. THIS
YIELDS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND RISING K-VALUES SUGGESTS
SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. ALSO...THE STRONG JET COULD YIELD GUSTY
WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND HEADLINES OR EVEN A FINE LINE
THAT COULD BRING THESE WINDS TO THE SFC. THE WHOLE SYSTEM IS
RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE HOWEVER...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL RUNS.

MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE...
UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE AND SECONDARY FRONT SWEEP THROUGH THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN...A FEW MORE SHOWERS
MAY ACCOMPANY THIS FROPA.

TUE THROUGH THU...
AS MENTIONED BEFORE...A LONGWAVE TROF REMAINS TO THE W...BUT WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRES ATTEMPTING TO NOSE OVER
FROM THE W...IT MAY BE THE DEEP COLD AIR REMAINS TO THE W. WILL
YIELD A PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WX...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON EXACTLY HOW CLOSE THE TROF GETS BY THAT POINT. FOR
NOW WILL GRADUALLY ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP FROM NEAR...TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

1045 AM UPDATE...

NO CHANGE FROM 12Z TAFS. WIND GUSTS MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS
EARLIER THOUGHT. HOWEVER WE WILL REEVALUATE FOR THE 18Z TAFS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

--------------------------------------------------------------

TODAY...
VFR. AN ISOLATED FLURRY POSSIBLE WITH NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS. SW
WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS CAPE/ISLANDS.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS NW...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WEST WIND
GUSTS TO 25 KT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND CAPE/ISLANDS.

FRIDAY...VFR. NW WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN RAIN/FOG. MAY START AS A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES SUNDAY MORNING WITH A LULL INTO SUN
EVENING. BEST TIMING FOR RAIN/FOG IS LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRIDAY.

1045 AM UPDATE...

WILL CONTINUE WITH GALES BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST GUSTS MAY BE
CLOSER TO 30 KT...RATHER THAN 35 KT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT
FOR NOW WILL LEAVE GLW AS IS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

PERSISTENT WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY WITH A FEW
PERIODS OF GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE AS COLD AIR OVER WARMER
WATERS PROMOTES GOOD MIXING. A PERIOD OF SW GALES EXPECTED TODAY
OVER OPEN WATERS ASSOCD WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET...THEN ANOTHER
PULSE POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. IT
APPEARS WINDS WILL FALL SHORT OF GALES ON FRIDAY...BUT NW GUSTS
TO 30 KT EXPECTED. ROUGH SEAS UPWARDS TO 10-12 FT OVER SOUTHERN
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDING SEAS DURING
FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF BELOW SCA CONDITIONS DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY...THEN SW WINDS AND SEAS PICK UP AGAIN SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY EVENING
THEN BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT MOVES
OVER THE WATERS. SEAS GENERALLY 5 TO 9 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ230-236-251.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ231-250.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC/NOCERA/DOODY
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/NOCERA/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 201208
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
708 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...FOLLOWED BY MORE BLUSTERY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD
CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP IS IN
STORE BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE MILDER AIR WILL
LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COOLER
WEATHER RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING OUT OF A MAINLY MID
LVL DECK THANKS TO DWPT DEPRESSIONS REMAINING ABOUT 10C MOST
LOCATIONS. JUST A FEW FLAKES OBSERVED. A SHOWER STILL POSSIBLE
MAINLY CAPE/ISLANDS THANKS TO INCREASED MOISTURE FLUX BUT THESE
TOO SHOULD DISSIPATE AND SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
MORNING.  OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT OVER THE GT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SNE THIS
AFTERNOON. GOOD SW LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING
DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM THE OCEAN TO THE
CAPE/ISLANDS WHERE MOCLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...CLEARING SKIES WILL MOVE IN FROM
WEST TO EAST WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE. MODERATING LOW LEVEL TEMPS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY E NEW ENG WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
REACH WELL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN TODAY...BUT
COLDER 30S IN THE INTERIOR WHERE COLD ADVECTION MORE PRONOUNCED
THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD MIXING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PROMOTE GUSTY
W/SW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH INTERIOR AND 30-35 MPH IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
MID LEVEL TROF SWINGS THROUGH NEW ENG TONIGHT WITH GOOD COLD
ADVECTION PROMOTING GUSTY W WINDS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST
WHERE GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH POSSIBLE. THE TROF PASSAGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME CLOUDS...MAINLY N ZONES AS LAKE MOISTURE IS
ADVECTED EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE TROF. ELSEWHERE...MOCLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH MINS UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S...BUT IT WILL FEEL COLDER WITH THE WIND.

FRIDAY...
MID LEVEL TROF WILL BE MOVING EAST OF NEW ENG AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THE COLUMN IS DRY WHICH WILL YIELD MOSUNNY
SKIES BUT WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPS. 850 MB TEMPS -13/-14C
SUPPORTS MAXES UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES NW HIGHER TERRAIN AND
MID/UPPER 30S COASTAL PLAIN. GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DEEP
MIXING WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER WINDY DAY WITH NW GUSTS TO 35 MPH
WHICH WILL ADD TO THE CHILL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MODERATING TEMPS THIS WEEKEND
* MUCH WARMER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
* RAINSTORM LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
20.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT REASONABLE AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MID TERM...WITH A DIVERGENCE IN SOLUTIONS AMONGST BOTH
OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLES TOWARD THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE LONG
TERM. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE AGREEMENT IS THROUGH THE SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT AND PHASING OF BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY FOR SUN-MON...CONFIDENCE REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH FOR THE
TIMING OF A FAIRLY DYNAMIC AND OCCLUDING. THIS OCCLUDING SYSTEM IS
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER DEEP LONGWAVE TROF WHICH LOOKS TO DEVELOP
SIMILARLY TO THIS WEEKS COLD TROF. HOWEVER...THE AXIS IS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN AND MAY REMAIN W AND MAY NOT BE QUITE AS DEEP AS THIS
WEEKS SYSTEM. AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT THE ECMWF
HAS SHOWN BETTER CONSISTENCY WITH THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM...SO
WILL ERR ON THE SIDE OF THE ECMWF AFTER MON.

DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...
THE LONGWAVE TROF WHICH BROUGHT THE COLDER THAN NORMAL WEATHER
AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL MOVE TO THE E THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRES CRESTS OVER FROM THE S. THIS WILL INITIATE
MODEST RETURN FLOW WITH GULF OF MEXICO CONNECTIONS. ALTHOUGH THIS
SUGGESTS WARMER TEMPS AND HIGHER DWPTS...THE COOL AIR WILL TAKE
SOME TIME TO FULLY LEAVE THE LOW-LVLS...SO SUSPECT THAT HIGHS
REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON SAT IN SPITE OF RISING
DWPTS AND RETURN FLOW. MAINLY DRY INTO SAT NIGHT.

SUN AND MON...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE A SLOWLY OCCLUDING LOW PRES WILL GRADUALLY
APPROACH FROM THE W. FIRST IT/S WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE
INTO CENTRAL AND NRN NEW ENGLAND EARLY SUN...AND DEPENDING ON THE
MOISTURE FLUX...MAY YIELD SOME MIXED PRECIP FOR THE
INTERIOR...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED GIVEN NEAR SFC TEMPS MAY
BY BELOW FREEZING THROUGH MID MORNING. AFTER A BRIEF LULL DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS SUN...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ALONG WITH A
60 KT SLY LLJ /3 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ ALONG WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1.25 INCHES /2-3 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/. THIS
YIELDS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND RISING K-VALUES SUGGESTS
SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. ALSO...THE STRONG JET COULD YIELD GUSTY
WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND HEADLINES OR EVEN A FINE LINE
THAT COULD BRING THESE WINDS TO THE SFC. THE WHOLE SYSTEM IS
RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE HOWEVER...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL RUNS.

MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE...
UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE AND SECONDARY FRONT SWEEP THROUGH THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN...A FEW MORE SHOWERS
MAY ACCOMPANY THIS FROPA.

TUE THROUGH THU...
AS MENTIONED BEFORE...A LONGWAVE TROF REMAINS TO THE W...BUT WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRES ATTEMPTING TO NOSE OVER
FROM THE W...IT MAY BE THE DEEP COLD AIR REMAINS TO THE W. WILL
YIELD A PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WX...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON EXACTLY HOW CLOSE THE TROF GETS BY THAT POINT. FOR
NOW WILL GRADUALLY ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP FROM NEAR...TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...
VFR. AN ISOLATED FLURRY POSSIBLE WITH NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS. SW
WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS CAPE/ISLANDS.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS NW...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WEST WIND
GUSTS TO 25 KT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND CAPE/ISLANDS.

FRIDAY...VFR. NW WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN RAIN/FOG. MAY START AS A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES SUNDAY MORNING WITH A LULL INTO SUN
EVENING. BEST TIMING FOR RAIN/FOG IS LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRIDAY.

PERSISTENT WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY WITH A FEW
PERIODS OF GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE AS COLD AIR OVER WARMER
WATERS PROMOTES GOOD MIXING. A PERIOD OF SW GALES EXPECTED TODAY
OVER OPEN WATERS ASSOCD WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET...THEN ANOTHER
PULSE POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. IT
APPEARS WINDS WILL FALL SHORT OF GALES ON FRIDAY...BUT NW GUSTS
TO 30 KT EXPECTED. ROUGH SEAS UPWARDS TO 10-12 FT OVER SOUTHERN
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDING SEAS DURING
FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF BELOW SCA CONDITIONS DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY...THEN SW WINDS AND SEAS PICK UP AGAIN SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY EVENING
THEN BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT MOVES
OVER THE WATERS. SEAS GENERALLY 5 TO 9 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ230-236-251.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ231-250.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC/DOODY
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DOODY



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