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000
FXUS61 KBOX 030651
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
251 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN REDEVELOPS EARLY THIS MORNING AS LOW PRES TRACKS SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND. RAIN TAPERS OFF THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT
IT WILL REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY AND COOL. ONE OR MORE WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY BRINGING MORE
SHOWERS. A CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE APPALACHIANS
THURSDAY AND DRIFTS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER WEATHER MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

300 AM UPDATE ...

*** A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN THIS MORNING POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES
 ALONG THE SOUTH COAST ***

FRONTAL WAVE OVER THE MID ATLC REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
TRACK ENE TODAY IN THE DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. WITHIN THIS AIRSTREAM COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AS PWATS OF UP TO 1.5 INCHES CURRENTLY STREAMING NE
ACROSS DE INTO SOUTHERN NJ. THIS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE
OVERSPREADING A FAIRLY BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD THERMAL
PACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LARGE
RAIN SHIELD OVERSPREADING THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. AT 06Z
RAIN ALREADY INTO PSF AND DXR...AND SHOULD BE IN THE BOSTON-
PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR AROUND 4-6 AM AND THEN ACROSS CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET BY 8 AM.

AS FRONTAL WAVE TRACKS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS MORNING
MODELS SUGGEST INCREASING LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THE SOUTH
COAST OF MA AND RI. NOT VERY MAY-ISH BUT MORE LIKE A LATE
WINTER/EARLY SPRING SYSTEM. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY TOO SO
ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE BUT THE GREATER IMPACT WILL BE THIS
INSTABILITY TO ENHANCE THE RISK FOR BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI 09Z TO 15Z FROM
WEST TO EAST. MAIN IMPACTS HERE WOULD BE CONFINED TO MINOR LOCAL
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. ELSEWHERE EXPECTING LESS RAINFALL
NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE TOWARD THE MA/NH BORDER.

OTHERWISE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF THIS
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. LOW CLOUDS LIKELY PERSIST GIVEN WEAK
RIDGING BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
COMBINED WITH LOW MOISTURE TRAPPED MAY YIELD SPOTTY LIGHT DRIZZLE
LATER IN THE DAY.

ANOTHER COOL DAY AHEAD GIVEN THE RAIN AND LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS.
THIS WILL ONLY YIELD HIGHS IN THE U40S TO L50S...ABOUT 10-15 DEGS
COOLER THAN NORMAL. THE COOLER 2 METER TEMPS SEEM MORE REASONABLE
COMPARED TO THE MILDER MOS HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...

UPDATED 330 AM ...

TONIGHT ...

COLUMN BEGINS TO DRY FROM TOP DOWN AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES BEHIND
DEPARTING FRONTAL WAVE. HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING SKIES TO CLEAR MUCH
IF ANY GIVEN LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. IN FACT THIS MAY YIELD PATCHY DRIZZLE/MIST
OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY ...

LONG WAVE TROUGH SHARPENS AS NORTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY DIVING
SOUTHWARD FROM ONTARIO THRU THE GREAT LAKES FORMS A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE OH VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS BACKS THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH A NEW FRONTAL WAVE AND PLUME
OF MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY DAYS
END. SO THE WEATHER THEME FOR WED WILL BE A MAINLY DRY START
/OTHER THAN MORNING MIST-DRIZZLE/ FOLLOWED BY INCREASING THREAT
FOR RAIN ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

ANOTHER COOLER THAN NORMAL DAY WITH SURFACE RIDGE WEDGED FROM THE
MARITIMES INTO NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT
ONSHORE WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

BIG PICTURE...

LONGWAVE SCALE SHOWS TROUGH EAST/RIDGE WEST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM STAYS ACROSS CANADA MUCH OF THE
WEEK WHILE FLOW ACROSS THE USA REMAINS BLOCKY WITH CLOSED LOWS OVER
THE PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC COASTS AND A WEAKER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS.

SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN USA CLOSED LOW. THEN OVER THE
WEEKEND A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM DIGS INTO THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH. THIS KICKS OUT THE ATLANTIC CLOSED LOW AND ESTABLISHES A NEW
CLOSED LOW OVER THE MARITIMES.

THIS REMAINS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND A TREND TO DRIER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE DAILIES...

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY... SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WITH SEVERAL JET
STREAKS MOVING OVERHEAD OF NEW ENGLAND. STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS
OFFSHORE. THIS IS THE RECIPE FOR ONE OR MORE SURFACE LOWS
RIPPLING UP THE FRONT AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTH. LOW LEVEL FLOW
SOUTH OF THE FRONT REMAINS DIRECTED OUT TO SEA...BUT IF ONE OF
THESE LOWS BECOMES A LITTLE STRONGER THAN DEPICTED THEN IT IS
CONCEIVABLE THAT IT COULD BRIEFLY PULL THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT OF
THE SOUTH AND GENERATE SOME LOW LEVEL LIFT/OVERRUNNING ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS IT PASSES. MEANWHILE THE JET STREAKS ALOFT
WILL GENERATE SOME UPPER VENTING. AT A MINIMUM THIS WOULD INDICATE
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IF ONE LOW
BECOMES FOCUSSED ALONG THE FRONT THEN HIGHER POPS VALUES /ABOVE
THE 55 PCT LIKELY THRESHOLD/ WOULD BE REASONABLE ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST AND ISLANDS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... CLOSED UPPER LOW TAKES SHAPE OVER
THE APPALACHIANS AND DRIFTS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. COLD POOL ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL ADVECT OVER OUR AREA AND DESTABILIZE
THE AIRMASS. THIS WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

SUNDAY-MONDAY... NORTHERN SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND SUNDAY. THIS DRIVES THE CLOSED LOW OFF TO THE EAST AND
BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA ON SUNDAY. WE SHOULD BE UNDER
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE NORTHWEST UPPER JET...PROVIDING ENOUGH
VENTING TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
WITH DRIER WEATHER FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

UPDATED 300 AM ...

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

BEFORE 12Z ...

WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING HOWEVER TREND WILL BE
DOWN TOWARD IFR/LIFR AS RAIN OVERSPREADS ALL TERMINALS FROM WEST
TO EAST. BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY EXIT NYC AREA AND COASTAL
CT AND APPROACHING SOUTHERN RI AND MA TOWARD 12Z. HEAVY CONFIDENCE
ON TRENDS BUT LOWER ON PRECISE DETAILS.

AFTER 12Z ...

RAIN OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI. IFR AND MVFR PREVAIL. RAIN BEGINS TO
PULL OUT OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE HIGH ON TRENDS BUT LOWER ON EXACT DETAILS.

TONIGHT ...

IFR AND MVFR WITH IFR LIKELY OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. MVFR ELSEWHERE. SPOTTY DRIZZLE/MIST POSSIBLE IN IFR
AREAS. OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH ON TRENDS
BUT LOWER ON EXACT DETAILS.

WED ...

IFR LIKELY SOUTHEAST MA WITH MVFR ELSEWHERE. MAINLY DRY EARLY WITH
JUST SPOTTY MIST/DRIZZLE. RAIN REDEVELOPS LATE IN THE DAY FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. LIGHT ENE WINDS.  FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH ON
TRENDS BUT LOWER ON EXACT DETAILS.

KBOS TERMINAL ... MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. BULK OF
HEAVY RAIN TODAY SHOULD SLIDE SOUTH OF LOGAN.

KBDL TERMINAL ... MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. HEAVIEST
RAIN TODAY IS FROM 09Z TO 15Z THEN TAPERING OFF.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

WEDNESDAY NIGHT ...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND LOW CIGS.
NORTHEAST WIND 15 KNOTS OR LESS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

3 AM UPDATE ...

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/ ... HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LIGHT TO MODEST ENE WINDS TODAY THRU WED. PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
THIS MORNING...HEAVY AT TIMES THEN TAPERING OFF THIS AFTERNOON.
MIST/DRIZZLE AND FOG TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. THEN ANOTHER WEAK
FRONTAL WAVE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
LATE WED.


OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...

NORTHEAST WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS 5 TO 7 FEET THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS MAY BE NEEDED...MOSTLY ON
THE OUTER WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/FRANK
NEAR TERM...WTB/FRANK/NOCERA
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/FRANK/NOCERA
MARINE...WTB/FRANK




000
FXUS61 KBOX 030205
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1005 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER GIVES WAY TO A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVERNIGHT. THE LOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE.
THE RAIN SHOULD BE OVER FOR MOST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT
WILL REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY AND COOL. ONE OR MORE WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY BRINGING MORE SHOWERS.
A CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE APPALACHIANS THURSDAY AND
DRIFTS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
SWINGS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER WEATHER MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

10 PM UPDATE ...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. NEXT BATCH OF RAIN
CURRENTLY OVER MID ATLC REGION INTO SOUTHEAST PA AND SOUTHERN NJ.
THIS WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z FROM
SW TO NE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WET AND SLOW MORNING COMMUTE WITH
THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA TUE
MORNING. GIVEN PREVIOUS FORECAST MATCHING UP WELL WITH LATEST
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS...NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST
UPDATE. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

LOTS OF CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE IN PLACE. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT DUE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED
BENEATH AN INVERSION. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND AREAS OF
FOG ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ON THE COAST. MINOR CHANGES MADE AT
THE EVENING UPDATE BUT OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /1 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

*** PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF MA TURNPIKE
AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING PARTICULARLY NEAR THE SOUTH
COAST ***

OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...

ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST AND PASS SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.  BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW A DECENT BAND OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS/OMEGA SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE AND PARTICULARLY NEAR
THE SOUTH COAST.

WITH ALL THAT SAID...EXPECT A BAND OF RAIN TO OVERSPREAD AREAS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE TOWARD DAYBREAK.  THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY
BE HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WHERE THE BEST
FORCING/LIFT WILL BE LOCATED.  ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.50+ INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.  MEANWHILE...NORTH OF THE MA
TURNPIKE AND ESPECIALLY NEAR THE NH BORDER...A PERIOD OF SHOWERS
IS POSSIBLE BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE PASSED WELL TO OUR EAST TUE AFTERNOON...SO
MAINLY DRY WEATHER OTHER THAN PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION WILL HANG TOUGH WITH LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS. THE RESULT WILL BE ANOTHER DREARY DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S AND ITS POSSIBLE PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN MA COAST STAY IN
THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

BIG PICTURE...

LONGWAVE SCALE SHOWS TROUGH EAST/RIDGE WEST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM STAYS ACROSS CANADA MUCH OF THE
WEEK WHILE FLOW ACROSS THE USA REMAINS BLOCKY WITH CLOSED LOWS OVER
THE PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC COASTS AND A WEAKER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS.

SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN USA CLOSED LOW. THEN OVER THE
WEEKEND A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM DIGS INTO THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH. THIS KICKS OUT THE ATLANTIC CLOSED LOW AND ESTABLISHES A NEW
CLOSED LOW OVER THE MARITIMES.

THIS REMAINS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND A TREND TO DRIER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE DAILIES...

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY... SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WITH SEVERAL JET
STREAKS MOVING OVERHEAD OF NEW ENGLAND. STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS
OFFSHORE. THIS IS THE RECIPE FOR ONE OR MORE SURFACE LOWS
RIPPLING UP THE FRONT AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTH. LOW LEVEL FLOW
SOUTH OF THE FRONT REMAINS DIRECTED OUT TO SEA...BUT IF ONE OF
THESE LOWS BECOMES A LITTLE STRONGER THAN DEPICTED THEN IT IS
CONCEIVABLE THAT IT COULD BRIEFLY PULL THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT OF
THE SOUTH AND GENERATE SOME LOW LEVEL LIFT/OVERRUNNING ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS IT PASSES. MEANWHILE THE JET STREAKS ALOFT
WILL GENERATE SOME UPPER VENTING. AT A MINIMUM THIS WOULD INDICATE
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IF ONE LOW
BECOMES FOCUSSED ALONG THE FRONT THEN HIGHER POPS VALUES /ABOVE
THE 55 PCT LIKELY THRESHOLD/ WOULD BE REASONABLE ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST AND ISLANDS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... CLOSED UPPER LOW TAKES SHAPE OVER
THE APPALACHIANS AND DRIFTS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. COLD POOL ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL ADVECT OVER OUR AREA AND DESTABILIZE
THE AIRMASS. THIS WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

SUNDAY-MONDAY... NORTHERN SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND SUNDAY. THIS DRIVES THE CLOSED LOW OFF TO THE EAST AND
BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA ON SUNDAY. WE SHOULD BE UNDER
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE NORTHWEST UPPER JET...PROVIDING ENOUGH
VENTING TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
WITH DRIER WEATHER FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

10 PM UPDATE ... NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM 00Z TAFS. RAIN REDEVELOPS
ACROSS CT/RI AND MA BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z FROM SW TO NE WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN BY 12Z. STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL OVER
CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA TUE MORNING. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LINGER IN
RI/SOUTHEAST MASS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS/FOG/DRIZZLE. CONDITIONS
FARTHER NORTH AND WEST MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO MVFR.

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN WILL MOVE INTO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF MA
TURNPIKE BETWEEN O6Z AND 12Z. SOME SHOWERS MAY REACH NEAR THE
MA/NH BORDER...BUT THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.

TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  BULK OF THE RAIN MOVES EAST
OF THE REGION TUE MORNING.  OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE
REST OF TUE AFTERNOON BUT MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER BUT SHOULD
SEE A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AT LEAST AWAY FROM THE COAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  IFR CONDITIONS MAY
BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING IF WINDS CAN
TEMPORARILY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. IF SO...IFR CONDITIONS PROBABLY
RE-DEVELOP AFTER  8Z WITH THE NEXT BAND OF RAIN.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  IFR CONDITIONS PROBABLY
IMPROVE TO LOW END MVFR THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND LOW CIGS.
NORTHEAST WIND 15 KNOTS OR LESS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

10 PM UPDATE ...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. LOWEST VSBYS OVER EASTERN
MA WATERS BETWEEEN 1 AND 3 MILES. RAIN REDEVELOPS 2 AM TO 5 AM
FROM SW TO NE WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN TUE MORNING. STEADIEST AND
HEAVIEST RAIN OVER THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. RAIN TAPERS OFF LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON SW TO NE. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===================================================================

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAIN CONCERN FOR MARINERS WILL BE AREAS OF FOG...MAINLY LATER
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP
MOST WATERS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH TUE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS OUR
FAR EASTERN WATERS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT FOR MARGINAL 5
FOOT SEAS. WE MAY NEED ADDITIONAL SCA FOR MARGINAL 5 FOOT SEAS LATER
TUE ACROSS OUR OUTER-WATERS AGAIN...SO SOMETHING LATER SHIFTS WILL
HAVE TO EVALUATE.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...

NORTHEAST WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS 5 TO 7 FEET THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS MAY BE NEEDED...MOSTLY ON
THE OUTER WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/FRANK
NEAR TERM...WTB/FRANK/NOCERA
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/FRANK/NOCERA
MARINE...WTB/FRANK/NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 030205
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1005 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER GIVES WAY TO A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVERNIGHT. THE LOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE.
THE RAIN SHOULD BE OVER FOR MOST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT
WILL REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY AND COOL. ONE OR MORE WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY BRINGING MORE SHOWERS.
A CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE APPALACHIANS THURSDAY AND
DRIFTS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
SWINGS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER WEATHER MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

10 PM UPDATE ...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. NEXT BATCH OF RAIN
CURRENTLY OVER MID ATLC REGION INTO SOUTHEAST PA AND SOUTHERN NJ.
THIS WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z FROM
SW TO NE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WET AND SLOW MORNING COMMUTE WITH
THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA TUE
MORNING. GIVEN PREVIOUS FORECAST MATCHING UP WELL WITH LATEST
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS...NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST
UPDATE. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

LOTS OF CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE IN PLACE. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT DUE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED
BENEATH AN INVERSION. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND AREAS OF
FOG ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ON THE COAST. MINOR CHANGES MADE AT
THE EVENING UPDATE BUT OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /1 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

*** PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF MA TURNPIKE
AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING PARTICULARLY NEAR THE SOUTH
COAST ***

OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...

ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST AND PASS SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.  BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW A DECENT BAND OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS/OMEGA SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE AND PARTICULARLY NEAR
THE SOUTH COAST.

WITH ALL THAT SAID...EXPECT A BAND OF RAIN TO OVERSPREAD AREAS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE TOWARD DAYBREAK.  THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY
BE HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WHERE THE BEST
FORCING/LIFT WILL BE LOCATED.  ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.50+ INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.  MEANWHILE...NORTH OF THE MA
TURNPIKE AND ESPECIALLY NEAR THE NH BORDER...A PERIOD OF SHOWERS
IS POSSIBLE BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE PASSED WELL TO OUR EAST TUE AFTERNOON...SO
MAINLY DRY WEATHER OTHER THAN PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION WILL HANG TOUGH WITH LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS. THE RESULT WILL BE ANOTHER DREARY DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S AND ITS POSSIBLE PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN MA COAST STAY IN
THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

BIG PICTURE...

LONGWAVE SCALE SHOWS TROUGH EAST/RIDGE WEST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM STAYS ACROSS CANADA MUCH OF THE
WEEK WHILE FLOW ACROSS THE USA REMAINS BLOCKY WITH CLOSED LOWS OVER
THE PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC COASTS AND A WEAKER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS.

SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN USA CLOSED LOW. THEN OVER THE
WEEKEND A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM DIGS INTO THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH. THIS KICKS OUT THE ATLANTIC CLOSED LOW AND ESTABLISHES A NEW
CLOSED LOW OVER THE MARITIMES.

THIS REMAINS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND A TREND TO DRIER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE DAILIES...

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY... SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WITH SEVERAL JET
STREAKS MOVING OVERHEAD OF NEW ENGLAND. STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS
OFFSHORE. THIS IS THE RECIPE FOR ONE OR MORE SURFACE LOWS
RIPPLING UP THE FRONT AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTH. LOW LEVEL FLOW
SOUTH OF THE FRONT REMAINS DIRECTED OUT TO SEA...BUT IF ONE OF
THESE LOWS BECOMES A LITTLE STRONGER THAN DEPICTED THEN IT IS
CONCEIVABLE THAT IT COULD BRIEFLY PULL THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT OF
THE SOUTH AND GENERATE SOME LOW LEVEL LIFT/OVERRUNNING ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS IT PASSES. MEANWHILE THE JET STREAKS ALOFT
WILL GENERATE SOME UPPER VENTING. AT A MINIMUM THIS WOULD INDICATE
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IF ONE LOW
BECOMES FOCUSSED ALONG THE FRONT THEN HIGHER POPS VALUES /ABOVE
THE 55 PCT LIKELY THRESHOLD/ WOULD BE REASONABLE ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST AND ISLANDS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... CLOSED UPPER LOW TAKES SHAPE OVER
THE APPALACHIANS AND DRIFTS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. COLD POOL ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL ADVECT OVER OUR AREA AND DESTABILIZE
THE AIRMASS. THIS WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

SUNDAY-MONDAY... NORTHERN SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND SUNDAY. THIS DRIVES THE CLOSED LOW OFF TO THE EAST AND
BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA ON SUNDAY. WE SHOULD BE UNDER
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE NORTHWEST UPPER JET...PROVIDING ENOUGH
VENTING TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
WITH DRIER WEATHER FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

10 PM UPDATE ... NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM 00Z TAFS. RAIN REDEVELOPS
ACROSS CT/RI AND MA BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z FROM SW TO NE WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN BY 12Z. STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL OVER
CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA TUE MORNING. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LINGER IN
RI/SOUTHEAST MASS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS/FOG/DRIZZLE. CONDITIONS
FARTHER NORTH AND WEST MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO MVFR.

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN WILL MOVE INTO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF MA
TURNPIKE BETWEEN O6Z AND 12Z. SOME SHOWERS MAY REACH NEAR THE
MA/NH BORDER...BUT THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.

TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  BULK OF THE RAIN MOVES EAST
OF THE REGION TUE MORNING.  OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE
REST OF TUE AFTERNOON BUT MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER BUT SHOULD
SEE A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AT LEAST AWAY FROM THE COAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  IFR CONDITIONS MAY
BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING IF WINDS CAN
TEMPORARILY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. IF SO...IFR CONDITIONS PROBABLY
RE-DEVELOP AFTER  8Z WITH THE NEXT BAND OF RAIN.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  IFR CONDITIONS PROBABLY
IMPROVE TO LOW END MVFR THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND LOW CIGS.
NORTHEAST WIND 15 KNOTS OR LESS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

10 PM UPDATE ...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. LOWEST VSBYS OVER EASTERN
MA WATERS BETWEEEN 1 AND 3 MILES. RAIN REDEVELOPS 2 AM TO 5 AM
FROM SW TO NE WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN TUE MORNING. STEADIEST AND
HEAVIEST RAIN OVER THE SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. RAIN TAPERS OFF LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON SW TO NE. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===================================================================

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAIN CONCERN FOR MARINERS WILL BE AREAS OF FOG...MAINLY LATER
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP
MOST WATERS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH TUE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS OUR
FAR EASTERN WATERS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT FOR MARGINAL 5
FOOT SEAS. WE MAY NEED ADDITIONAL SCA FOR MARGINAL 5 FOOT SEAS LATER
TUE ACROSS OUR OUTER-WATERS AGAIN...SO SOMETHING LATER SHIFTS WILL
HAVE TO EVALUATE.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...

NORTHEAST WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS 5 TO 7 FEET THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS MAY BE NEEDED...MOSTLY ON
THE OUTER WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/FRANK
NEAR TERM...WTB/FRANK/NOCERA
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/FRANK/NOCERA
MARINE...WTB/FRANK/NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 022253
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
653 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER GIVES WAY TO A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVERNIGHT. THE LOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE.
THE RAIN SHOULD BE OVER FOR MOST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT
WILL REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY AND COOL. ONE OR MORE WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY BRINGING MORE SHOWERS.
A CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE APPALACHIANS THURSDAY AND
DRIFTS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
SWINGS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER WEATHER MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

LOTS OF CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE IN PLACE. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT DUE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED
BENEATH AN INVERSION. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND AREAS OF
FOG ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ON THE COAST. MINOR CHANGES MADE AT
THE EVENING UPDATE BUT OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /1 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

***PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF MA TURNPIKE
AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING PARTICULARLY NEAR THE SOUTH
COAST***

OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...

ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST AND PASS SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.  BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW A DECENT BAND OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS/OMEGA SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE AND PARTICULARLY NEAR
THE SOUTH COAST.

WITH ALL THAT SAID...EXPECT A BAND OF RAIN TO OVERSPREAD AREAS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE TOWARD DAYBREAK.  THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY
BE HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WHERE THE BEST
FORCING/LIFT WILL BE LOCATED.  ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.50+ INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.  MEANWHILE...NORTH OF THE MA
TURNPIKE AND ESPECIALLY NEAR THE NH BORDER...A PERIOD OF SHOWERS
IS POSSIBLE BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE PASSED WELL TO OUR EAST TUE AFTERNOON...SO
MAINLY DRY WEATHER OTHER THAN PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION WILL HANG TOUGH WITH LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS. THE RESULT WILL BE ANOTHER DREARY DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S AND ITS POSSIBLE PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN MA COAST STAY IN
THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

BIG PICTURE...

LONGWAVE SCALE SHOWS TROUGH EAST/RIDGE WEST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM STAYS ACROSS CANADA MUCH OF THE
WEEK WHILE FLOW ACROSS THE USA REMAINS BLOCKY WITH CLOSED LOWS OVER
THE PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC COASTS AND A WEAKER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS.

SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN USA CLOSED LOW. THEN OVER THE
WEEKEND A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM DIGS INTO THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH. THIS KICKS OUT THE ATLANTIC CLOSED LOW AND ESTABLISHES A NEW
CLOSED LOW OVER THE MARITIMES.

THIS REMAINS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND A TREND TO DRIER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE DAILIES...

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY... SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WITH SEVERAL JET
STREAKS MOVING OVERHEAD OF NEW ENGLAND. STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS
OFFSHORE. THIS IS THE RECIPE FOR ONE OR MORE SURFACE LOWS
RIPPLING UP THE FRONT AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTH. LOW LEVEL FLOW
SOUTH OF THE FRONT REMAINS DIRECTED OUT TO SEA...BUT IF ONE OF
THESE LOWS BECOMES A LITTLE STRONGER THAN DEPICTED THEN IT IS
CONCEIVABLE THAT IT COULD BRIEFLY PULL THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT OF
THE SOUTH AND GENERATE SOME LOW LEVEL LIFT/OVERRUNNING ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS IT PASSES. MEANWHILE THE JET STREAKS ALOFT
WILL GENERATE SOME UPPER VENTING. AT A MINIMUM THIS WOULD INDICATE
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IF ONE LOW
BECOMES FOCUSSED ALONG THE FRONT THEN HIGHER POPS VALUES /ABOVE
THE 55 PCT LIKELY THRESHOLD/ WOULD BE REASONABLE ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST AND ISLANDS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... CLOSED UPPER LOW TAKES SHAPE OVER
THE APPALACHIANS AND DRIFTS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. COLD POOL ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL ADVECT OVER OUR AREA AND DESTABILIZE
THE AIRMASS. THIS WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

SUNDAY-MONDAY... NORTHERN SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND SUNDAY. THIS DRIVES THE CLOSED LOW OFF TO THE EAST AND
BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA ON SUNDAY. WE SHOULD BE UNDER
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE NORTHWEST UPPER JET...PROVIDING ENOUGH
VENTING TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
WITH DRIER WEATHER FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LINGER IN
RI/SOUTHEAST MASS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS/FOG/DRIZZLE. CONDITIONS
FARTHER NORTH AND WEST MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO MVFR.

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN WILL MOVE INTO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF MA
TURNPIKE BETWEEN O6Z AND 12Z. SOME SHOWERS MAY REACH NEAR THE
MA/NH BORDER...BUT THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.

TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  BULK OF THE RAIN MOVES EAST
OF THE REGION TUE MORNING.  OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE
REST OF TUE AFTERNOON BUT MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER BUT SHOULD
SEE A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AT LEAST AWAY FROM THE COAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  IFR CONDITIONS MAY
BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING IF WINDS CAN
TEMPORARILY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. IF SO...IFR CONDITIONS PROBABLY
RE-DEVELOP AFTER  8Z WITH THE NEXT BAND OF RAIN.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  IFR CONDITIONS PROBABLY
IMPROVE TO LOW END MVFR THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND LOW CIGS.
NORTHEAST WIND 15 KNOTS OR LESS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAIN CONCERN FOR MARINERS WILL BE AREAS OF FOG...MAINLY LATER
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP
MOST WATERS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH TUE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS OUR
FAR EASTERN WATERS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT FOR MARGINAL 5
FOOT SEAS. WE MAY NEED ADDITIONAL SCA FOR MARGINAL 5 FOOT SEAS LATER
TUE ACROSS OUR OUTER-WATERS AGAIN...SO SOMETHING LATER SHIFTS WILL
HAVE TO EVALUATE.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...

NORTHEAST WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS 5 TO 7 FEET THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS MAY BE NEEDED...MOSTLY ON
THE OUTER WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/FRANK
NEAR TERM...WTB/FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/FRANK
MARINE...WTB/FRANK




000
FXUS61 KBOX 022023
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
423 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

DRY WEATHER BRIEFLY RETURNS THIS EVENING BEFORE A FAST MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS A PERIOD OF RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE.  THE RAIN
SHOULD BE OVER FOR MOST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT WILL REMAIN
RATHER CLOUDY AND COOL. ONE OR MORE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASS
SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY BRINGING MORE SHOWERS. A CLOSED
UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE APPALACHIANS THURSDAY AND DRIFTS SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER WEATHER
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

THIS EVENING...

LEFT OVER SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT THE REGION EARLY THIS
EVENING.  OTHERWISE...DRY MID LEVELS AND LACK OF FORCING WILL RESULT
IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.  HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION SO AN ABUNDANCE
OF LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE.  LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND AREAS OF FOG ARE
EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ON THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /1 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

***PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF MA TURNPIKE
AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING PARTICULARLY NEAR THE SOUTH
COAST***

OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...

ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST AND PASS SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.  BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW A DECENT BAND OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS/OMEGA SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE AND PARTICULARLY NEAR
THE SOUTH COAST.

WITH ALL THAT SAID...EXPECT A BAND OF RAIN TO OVERSPREAD AREAS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE TOWARD DAYBREAK.  THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY
BE HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WHERE THE BEST
FORCING/LIFT WILL BE LOCATED.  ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.50+ INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.  MEANWHILE...NORTH OF THE MA
TURNPIKE AND ESPECIALLY NEAR THE NH BORDER...A PERIOD OF SHOWERS
IS POSSIBLE BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE PASSED WELL TO OUR EAST TUE AFTERNOON...SO
MAINLY DRY WEATHER OTHER THAN PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION WILL HANG TOUGH WITH LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS. THE RESULT WILL BE ANOTHER DREARY DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S AND ITS POSSIBLE PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN MA COAST STAY IN
THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

BIG PICTURE...

LONGWAVE SCALE SHOWS TROUGH EAST/RIDGE WEST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM STAYS ACROSS CANADA MUCH OF THE
WEEK WHILE FLOW ACROSS THE USA REMAINS BLOCKY WITH CLOSED LOWS OVER
THE PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC COASTS AND A WEAKER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS.

SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN USA CLOSED LOW. THEN OVER THE
WEEKEND A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM DIGS INTO THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH. THIS KICKS OUT THE ATLANTIC CLOSED LOW AND ESTABLISHES A NEW
CLOSED LOW OVER THE MARITIMES.

THIS REMAINS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND A TREND TO DRIER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE DAILIES...

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY... SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WITH SEVERAL JET
STREAKS MOVING OVERHEAD OF NEW ENGLAND. STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS
OFFSHORE. THIS IS THE RECIPE FOR ONE OR MORE SURFACE LOWS
RIPPLING UP THE FRONT AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTH. LOW LEVEL FLOW
SOUTH OF THE FRONT REMAINS DIRECTED OUT TO SEA...BUT IF ONE OF
THESE LOWS BECOMES A LITTLE STRONGER THAN DEPICTED THEN IT IS
CONCEIVABLE THAT IT COULD BRIEFLY PULL THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT OF
THE SOUTH AND GENERATE SOME LOW LEVEL LIFT/OVERRUNNING ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS IT PASSES. MEANWHILE THE JET STREAKS ALOFT
WILL GENERATE SOME UPPER VENTING. AT A MINIMUM THIS WOULD INDICATE
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IF ONE LOW
BECOMES FOCUSSED ALONG THE FRONT THEN HIGHER POPS VALUES /ABOVE
THE 55 PCT LIKELY THRESHOLD/ WOULD BE REASONABLE ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST AND ISLANDS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... CLOSED UPPER LOW TAKES SHAPE OVER
THE APPALACHIANS AND DRIFTS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. COLD POOL ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL ADVECT OVER OUR AREA AND DESTABILIZE
THE AIRMASS. THIS WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

SUNDAY-MONDAY... NORTHERN SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND SUNDAY. THIS DRIVES THE CLOSED LOW OFF TO THE EAST AND
BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA ON SUNDAY. WE SHOULD BE UNDER
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE NORTHWEST UPPER JET...PROVIDING ENOUGH
VENTING TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
WITH DRIER WEATHER FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  IFR CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO LOW
END MVFR THIS EVENING IN SOME LOCATIONS...BUT THAT IS UNCERTAIN. IFR
TO LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. DRY WEATHER THIS EVENING OTHER THAN
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE...BUT A BAND OF STEADY WILL MOVE INTO AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF MA TURNPIKE BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z.  SOME SHOWERS MAY
REACH NEAR THE MA/NH BORDER...BUT THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST.

TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  BULK OF THE RAIN MOVES EAST
OF THE REGION TUE MORNING.  OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE
REST OF TUE AFTERNOON BUT MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER BUT SHOULD
SEE A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AT LEAST AWAY FROM THE COAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  IFR CONDITIONS MAY
BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING IF WINDS CAN
TEMPORARILY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. IF SO...IFR CONDITIONS PROBABLY
RE-DEVELOP AFTER  8Z WITH THE NEXT BAND OF RAIN.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  IFR CONDITIONS PROBABLY
IMPROVE TO LOW END MVFR THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND LOW CIGS.
NORTHEAST WIND 15 KNOTS OR LESS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAIN CONCERN FOR MARINERS WILL BE AREAS OF FOG...MAINLY LATER
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP
MOST WATERS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH TUE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS OUR
FAR EASTERN WATERS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT FOR MARGINAL 5
FOOT SEAS. WE MAY NEED ADDITIONAL SCA FOR MARGINAL 5 FOOT SEAS LATER
TUE ACROSS OUR OUTER-WATERS AGAIN...SO SOMETHING LATER SHIFTS WILL
HAVE TO EVALUATE.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...

NORTHEAST WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS 5 TO 7 FEET THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS MAY BE NEEDED...MOSTLY ON
THE OUTER WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/WTB
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...FRANK/WTB
MARINE...FRANK/WTB




000
FXUS61 KBOX 022007
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
407 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER BRIEFLY RETURNS THIS EVENING BEFORE A FAST MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS A PERIOD OF RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE.  THE RAIN
SHOULD BE OVER FOR MOST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT WILL REMAIN
RATHER CLOUDY AND COOL. ONE OR MORE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASS
SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY BRINGING MORE SHOWERS. A CLOSED
UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE APPALACHIANS THURSDAY AND DRIFTS SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER WEATHER
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THIS EVENING...

LEFT OVER SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT THE REGION EARLY THIS
EVENING.  OTHERWISE...DRY MID LEVELS AND LACK OF FORCING WILL RESULT
IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.  HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION SO AN ABUNDANCE
OF LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE.  LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND AREAS OF FOG ARE
EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ON THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /1 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
***PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF MA TURNPIKE
AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING PARTICULARLY NEAR THE SOUTH
COAST***

OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...

ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST AND PASS SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.  BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW A DECENT BAND OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS/OMEGA SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE AND PARTICULARLY NEAR
THE SOUTH COAST.

WITH ALL THAT SAID...EXPECT A BAND OF RAIN TO OVERSPREAD AREAS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE TOWARD DAYBREAK.  THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY
BE HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WHERE THE BEST
FORCING/LIFT WILL BE LOCATED.  ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...MAY SEE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.50+ INCHES.  MEANWHILE...NORTH OF THE MA
TURNPIKE THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE PASSED WELL TO OUR EAST TUE AFTERNOON...SO
MAINLY DRY WEATHER OTHER THAN PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION WILL HANG TOUGH WITH LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS. THE RESULT WILL BE ANOTHER DREARY DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S AND ITS POSSIBLE PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN MA COAST STAY IN
THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

BIG PICTURE...

LONGWAVE SCALE SHOWS TROUGH EAST/RIDGE WEST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM STAYS ACROSS CANADA MUCH OF THE
WEEK WHILE FLOW ACROSS THE USA REMAINS BLOCKY WITH CLOSED LOWS OVER
THE PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC COASTS AND A WEAKER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS.

SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN USA CLOSED LOW. THEN OVER THE
WEEKEND A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM DIGS INTO THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH. THIS KICKS OUT THE ATLANTIC CLOSED LOW AND ESTABLISHES A NEW
CLOSED LOW OVER THE MARITIMES.

THIS REMAINS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND A TREND TO DRIER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE DAILIES...

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY... SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WITH SEVERAL JET
STREAKS MOVING OVERHEAD OF NEW ENGLAND. STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS
OFFSHORE. THIS IS THE RECIPE FOR ONE OR MORE SURFACE LOWS
RIPPLING UP THE FRONT AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTH. LOW LEVEL FLOW
SOUTH OF THE FRONT REMAINS DIRECTED OUT TO SEA...BUT IF ONE OF
THESE LOWS BECOMES A LITTLE STRONGER THAN DEPICTED THEN IT IS
CONCEIVABLE THAT IT COULD BRIEFLY PULL THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT OF
THE SOUTH AND GENERATE SOME LOW LEVEL LIFT/OVERRUNNING ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS IT PASSES. MEANWHILE THE JET STREAKS ALOFT
WILL GENERATE SOME UPPER VENTING. AT A MINIMUM THIS WOULD INDICATE
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IF ONE LOW
BECOMES FOCUSSED ALONG THE FRONT THEN HIGHER POPS VALUES /ABOVE
THE 55 PCT LIKELY THRESHOLD/ WOULD BE REASONABLE ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST AND ISLANDS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... CLOSED UPPER LOW TAKES SHAPE OVER
THE APPALACHIANS AND DRIFTS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. COLD POOL ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL ADVECT OVER OUR AREA AND DESTABILIZE
THE AIRMASS. THIS WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

SUNDAY-MONDAY... NORTHERN SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND SUNDAY. THIS DRIVES THE CLOSED LOW OFF TO THE EAST AND
BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA ON SUNDAY. WE SHOULD BE UNDER
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE NORTHWEST UPPER JET...PROVIDING ENOUGH
VENTING TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
WITH DRIER WEATHER FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  IFR CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO LOW
END MVFR THIS EVENING IN SOME LOCATIONS...BUT THAT IS UNCERTAIN. IFR
TO LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. DRY WEATHER THIS EVENING OTHER THAN
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE...BUT A BAND OF STEADY WILL MOVE INTO AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF MA TURNPIKE BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z.  SOME SHOWERS MAY
REACH NEAR THE MA/NH BORDER...BUT THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST.

TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  BULK OF THE RAIN MOVES EAST
OF THE REGION TUE MORNING.  OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE
REST OF TUE AFTERNOON BUT MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER BUT SHOULD
SEE A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AT LEAST AWAY FROM THE COAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  IFR CONDITIONS MAY
BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING IF WINDS CAN
TEMPORARILY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. IF SO...IFR CONDITIONS PROBABLY
RE-DEVELOP AFTER  8Z WITH THE NEXT BAND OF RAIN.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  IFR CONDITIONS PROBABLY
IMPROVE TO LOW END MVFR THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND LOW CIGS.
NORTHEAST WIND 15 KNOTS OR LESS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAIN CONCERN FOR MARINERS WILL BE AREAS OF FOG...MAINLY LATER
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP
MOST WATERS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH TUE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS OUR
FAR EASTERN WATERS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT FOR MARGINAL 5
FOOT SEAS. WE MAY NEED ADDITIONAL SCA FOR MARGINAL 5 FOOT SEAS LATER
TUE ACROSS OUR OUTER-WATERS AGAIN...SO SOMETHING LATER SHIFTS WILL
HAVE TO EVALUATE.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...

NORTHEAST WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS 5 TO 7 FEET THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS MAY BE NEEDED...MOSTLY ON
THE OUTER WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/FRANK
MARINE...WTB/FRANK




000
FXUS61 KBOX 021951
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
351 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

DRY WEATHER BRIEFLY RETURNS THIS EVENING BEFORE A FAST MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS A PERIOD OF RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE.  THE RAIN
SHOULD BE OVER FOR MOST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT WILL REMAIN
RATHER CLOUDY AND COOL.  YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA DROPS THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND STALLS OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING A CONTINUED THREAT OF
SHOWERS ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE DRY PERIODS AS WELL. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

THIS EVENING...

LEFT OVER SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT THE REGION EARLY THIS
EVENING.  OTHERWISE...DRY MID LEVELS AND LACK OF FORCING WILL RESULT
IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.  HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION SO AN ABUNDANCE
OF LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE.  LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND AREAS OF FOG ARE
EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ON THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /1 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

***PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF MA TURNPIKE
AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING PARTICULARLY NEAR THE SOUTH
COAST***

OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...

ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST AND PASS SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.  BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW A DECENT BAND OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS/OMEGA SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE AND PARTICULARLY NEAR
THE SOUTH COAST.

WITH ALL THAT SAID...EXPECT A BAND OF RAIN TO OVERSPREAD AREAS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE TOWARD DAYBREAK.  THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY
BE HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WHERE THE BEST
FORCING/LIFT WILL BE LOCATED.  ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...MAY SEE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.50+ INCHES.  MEANWHILE...NORTH OF THE MA
TURNPIKE THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE PASSED WELL TO OUR EAST TUE AFTERNOON...SO
MAINLY DRY WEATHER OTHER THAN PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION WILL HANG TOUGH WITH LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS. THE RESULT WILL BE ANOTHER DREARY DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S AND ITS POSSIBLE PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN MA COAST STAY IN
THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AT TIMES INTO NEXT
  WEEKEND BUT THERE WILL BE DRY PERIODS AS WELL
* MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...BUT MILDER NEXT WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD FEATURING A DEVELOPING OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS THE CENTRAL US WITH
CLOSED LOWS MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST AND DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE
GT LAKES TO THE MID ATLC COAST. STRONG BLOCKING DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL ENSURE THAT THIS PATTERN WILL BE SLOW TO
BREAK DOWN SO WE ARE LOOKING AT AN UNSETTLED PERIOD INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT DRY PERIODS AS WELL. THERE ARE
SIGNS THAT THE CLOSED LOW COULD GET KICKED EAST BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AS NORTHERN STREAM VORTEX DROPS S FROM HUDSON
BAY...DELIVERING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS AS
WELL AS TIMING AND DETAILS OF PRECIP WHICH WILL DEPEND ON THE
PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW AND ATTENDING SFC LOW.

DETAILS...

TUE NIGHT...
LOW PRES S OF NEW ENG TUE EVENING WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE AS SFC
RIDGING BUILDS S INTO NEW ENG. ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BE EXITING THE
REGION IN THE EVENING AND MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY...BUT CANT
RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
LIFTS TO THE N OF THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY...
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH MID ATLC REGION THEN NE ALONG
THE COAST WILL LIKELY GENERATE ANOTHER SFC WAVE S OF NEW ENG. WEAK
WARM ADVECTION COMBINED WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
MORE SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH BEST FOCUS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. LOW
CONFIDENCE TEMP FORECAST GIVEN WIDE RANGE IN MODEL GUIDANCE WITH
ECMWF IN THE 40S...GFS 50S AND NAM 60S. LOW LEVEL NE FLOW AND
DAMMING SIGNATURE WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON HOW COOL. WE WILL LEAN TOWARD GFS WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S WHICH IS A COMPROMISE...BUT POTENTIAL FOR COOLER EXITS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TIMES DURING THIS PERIOD BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...DURATION AND EXTENT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.
CLOSED LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE MID ATLC
COAST...BUT EXACT LOCATION SOUTH OF NEW ENG IS UNCERTAIN AND THIS
WILL IMPACT SENSIBLE WEATHER. WHILE IT MAY BE WET AT TIMES THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER AS WELL. IT DOES APPEAR COLD FRONT
WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL KICK LOW PRES OUT TO SEA
BUT BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS IS ALSO
LOW AND WILL DEPEND ON EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AND WHETHER THERE IS
ANY BREAKS OF SUN. TEMPS WOULD LIKELY REACH WELL INTO THE 60S IN THE
INTERIOR WITH ANY SUN...BUT COOLER ALONG THE COAST WITH PERSISTENT
E/NE FLOW. MILDEST DAY MAY BE SUN AS WINDS TURN SW AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT WITH 70+ DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  IFR CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO LOW
END MVFR THIS EVENING IN SOME LOCATIONS...BUT THAT IS UNCERTAIN. IFR
TO LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. DRY WEATHER THIS EVENING OTHER THAN
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE...BUT A BAND OF STEADY WILL MOVE INTO AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF MA TURNPIKE BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z.  SOME SHOWERS MAY
REACH NEAR THE MA/NH BORDER...BUT THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST.

TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  BULK OF THE RAIN MOVES EAST
OF THE REGION TUE MORNING.  OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE
REST OF TUE AFTERNOON BUT MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER BUT SHOULD
SEE A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AT LEAST AWAY FROM THE COAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  IFR CONDITIONS MAY
BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING IF WINDS CAN
TEMPORARILY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. IF SO...IFR CONDITIONS PROBABLY
RE-DEVELOP AFTER  8Z WITH THE NEXT BAND OF RAIN.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  IFR CONDITIONS PROBABLY
IMPROVE TO LOW END MVFR THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH A FEW
SHOWERS AT TIMES.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAIN CONCERN FOR MARINERS WILL BE AREAS OF FOG...MAINLY LATER
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP
MOST WATERS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH TUE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS OUR
FAR EASTERN WATERS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT FOR MARGINAL 5
FOOT SEAS. WE MAY NEED ADDITIONAL SCA FOR MARGINAL 5 FOOT SEAS LATER
TUE ACROSS OUR OUTER-WATERS AGAIN...SO SOMETHING LATER SHIFTS WILL
HAVE TO EVALUATE.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

SURFACE FLOW IS MOSTLY EAST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SPEEDS BELOW SCA. SEAS WILL LIKELY APPROACH 5 FT OVER THE OUTER
WATERS FROM SWELL GENERATED BY THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. VSBYS
MAY BE REDUCED AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/KJC
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...FRANK/KJC
MARINE...FRANK/KJC




000
FXUS61 KBOX 021951
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
351 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

DRY WEATHER BRIEFLY RETURNS THIS EVENING BEFORE A FAST MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS A PERIOD OF RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE.  THE RAIN
SHOULD BE OVER FOR MOST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT WILL REMAIN
RATHER CLOUDY AND COOL.  YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA DROPS THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND STALLS OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING A CONTINUED THREAT OF
SHOWERS ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE DRY PERIODS AS WELL. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 1 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

THIS EVENING...

LEFT OVER SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT THE REGION EARLY THIS
EVENING.  OTHERWISE...DRY MID LEVELS AND LACK OF FORCING WILL RESULT
IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.  HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION SO AN ABUNDANCE
OF LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE.  LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND AREAS OF FOG ARE
EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ON THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /1 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

***PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF MA TURNPIKE
AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING PARTICULARLY NEAR THE SOUTH
COAST***

OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...

ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST AND PASS SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.  BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW A DECENT BAND OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS/OMEGA SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE AND PARTICULARLY NEAR
THE SOUTH COAST.

WITH ALL THAT SAID...EXPECT A BAND OF RAIN TO OVERSPREAD AREAS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE TOWARD DAYBREAK.  THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY
BE HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WHERE THE BEST
FORCING/LIFT WILL BE LOCATED.  ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...MAY SEE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.50+ INCHES.  MEANWHILE...NORTH OF THE MA
TURNPIKE THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE PASSED WELL TO OUR EAST TUE AFTERNOON...SO
MAINLY DRY WEATHER OTHER THAN PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION WILL HANG TOUGH WITH LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS. THE RESULT WILL BE ANOTHER DREARY DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S AND ITS POSSIBLE PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN MA COAST STAY IN
THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AT TIMES INTO NEXT
  WEEKEND BUT THERE WILL BE DRY PERIODS AS WELL
* MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...BUT MILDER NEXT WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD FEATURING A DEVELOPING OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS THE CENTRAL US WITH
CLOSED LOWS MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST AND DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE
GT LAKES TO THE MID ATLC COAST. STRONG BLOCKING DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL ENSURE THAT THIS PATTERN WILL BE SLOW TO
BREAK DOWN SO WE ARE LOOKING AT AN UNSETTLED PERIOD INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT DRY PERIODS AS WELL. THERE ARE
SIGNS THAT THE CLOSED LOW COULD GET KICKED EAST BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AS NORTHERN STREAM VORTEX DROPS S FROM HUDSON
BAY...DELIVERING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS AS
WELL AS TIMING AND DETAILS OF PRECIP WHICH WILL DEPEND ON THE
PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW AND ATTENDING SFC LOW.

DETAILS...

TUE NIGHT...
LOW PRES S OF NEW ENG TUE EVENING WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE AS SFC
RIDGING BUILDS S INTO NEW ENG. ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BE EXITING THE
REGION IN THE EVENING AND MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY...BUT CANT
RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
LIFTS TO THE N OF THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY...
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH MID ATLC REGION THEN NE ALONG
THE COAST WILL LIKELY GENERATE ANOTHER SFC WAVE S OF NEW ENG. WEAK
WARM ADVECTION COMBINED WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
MORE SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH BEST FOCUS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. LOW
CONFIDENCE TEMP FORECAST GIVEN WIDE RANGE IN MODEL GUIDANCE WITH
ECMWF IN THE 40S...GFS 50S AND NAM 60S. LOW LEVEL NE FLOW AND
DAMMING SIGNATURE WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON HOW COOL. WE WILL LEAN TOWARD GFS WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S WHICH IS A COMPROMISE...BUT POTENTIAL FOR COOLER EXITS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TIMES DURING THIS PERIOD BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...DURATION AND EXTENT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.
CLOSED LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE MID ATLC
COAST...BUT EXACT LOCATION SOUTH OF NEW ENG IS UNCERTAIN AND THIS
WILL IMPACT SENSIBLE WEATHER. WHILE IT MAY BE WET AT TIMES THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER AS WELL. IT DOES APPEAR COLD FRONT
WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL KICK LOW PRES OUT TO SEA
BUT BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS IS ALSO
LOW AND WILL DEPEND ON EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AND WHETHER THERE IS
ANY BREAKS OF SUN. TEMPS WOULD LIKELY REACH WELL INTO THE 60S IN THE
INTERIOR WITH ANY SUN...BUT COOLER ALONG THE COAST WITH PERSISTENT
E/NE FLOW. MILDEST DAY MAY BE SUN AS WINDS TURN SW AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT WITH 70+ DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  IFR CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO LOW
END MVFR THIS EVENING IN SOME LOCATIONS...BUT THAT IS UNCERTAIN. IFR
TO LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COAST IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. DRY WEATHER THIS EVENING OTHER THAN
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE...BUT A BAND OF STEADY WILL MOVE INTO AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF MA TURNPIKE BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z.  SOME SHOWERS MAY
REACH NEAR THE MA/NH BORDER...BUT THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST.

TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  BULK OF THE RAIN MOVES EAST
OF THE REGION TUE MORNING.  OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE
REST OF TUE AFTERNOON BUT MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER BUT SHOULD
SEE A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AT LEAST AWAY FROM THE COAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  IFR CONDITIONS MAY
BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING IF WINDS CAN
TEMPORARILY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. IF SO...IFR CONDITIONS PROBABLY
RE-DEVELOP AFTER  8Z WITH THE NEXT BAND OF RAIN.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  IFR CONDITIONS PROBABLY
IMPROVE TO LOW END MVFR THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH A FEW
SHOWERS AT TIMES.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAIN CONCERN FOR MARINERS WILL BE AREAS OF FOG...MAINLY LATER
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP
MOST WATERS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH TUE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS OUR
FAR EASTERN WATERS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT FOR MARGINAL 5
FOOT SEAS. WE MAY NEED ADDITIONAL SCA FOR MARGINAL 5 FOOT SEAS LATER
TUE ACROSS OUR OUTER-WATERS AGAIN...SO SOMETHING LATER SHIFTS WILL
HAVE TO EVALUATE.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

SURFACE FLOW IS MOSTLY EAST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SPEEDS BELOW SCA. SEAS WILL LIKELY APPROACH 5 FT OVER THE OUTER
WATERS FROM SWELL GENERATED BY THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. VSBYS
MAY BE REDUCED AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/KJC
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...FRANK/KJC
MARINE...FRANK/KJC




000
FXUS61 KBOX 021811
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
210 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT NORTH OF THE SOUTH COAST THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE STALLING OUT TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS UP ALONG
THE FRONT TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE
REGION. YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY AND STALLS OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING A CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE DRY PERIODS AS WELL. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

205 PM UPDATE...

STEADY RAIN HAS ALREADY MOVED OFF THE EASTERN MA COAST WITH THE
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE.  STILL ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR A BAND
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS TO RE-DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT AT
MID AFTERNOON.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS INTENSE AND MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE...BUT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES WILL KEEP THE WARM FRONT JAMMED NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST AND TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S...EXCEPT
SOME MIDDLE 50S IN PORTIONS OF RI/SOUTHEAST MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

WET PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT STALLED JUST
SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE
TRAVELING ALONG IT.  NOT EXPECTING THE ENTIRE PERIOD TO BE
RAINY...BUT PERIODS OF RAIN COUPLED WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG
WILL KEEP THE AREA IN THE GRAY...DAMP...COOL THAT WE OFTEN ASSOCIATE
WITH APRIL RATHER THAN MAY.  THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF LINGERING
ELEVATED INSTABILITY EARLY TONIGHT...BUT AT MOST EXPECT A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RATHER STEADY GIVEN THE MOISTURE WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S NORTH TO
UPPER 40S SOUTH AND HIGH TEMPERATURES BARELY CLIMBING INTO THE 50S
DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AT TIMES INTO NEXT
  WEEKEND BUT THERE WILL BE DRY PERIODS AS WELL
* MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...BUT MILDER NEXT WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD FEATURING A DEVELOPING OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS THE CENTRAL US WITH
CLOSED LOWS MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST AND DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE
GT LAKES TO THE MID ATLC COAST. STRONG BLOCKING DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL ENSURE THAT THIS PATTERN WILL BE SLOW TO
BREAK DOWN SO WE ARE LOOKING AT AN UNSETTLED PERIOD INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT DRY PERIODS AS WELL. THERE ARE
SIGNS THAT THE CLOSED LOW COULD GET KICKED EAST BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AS NORTHERN STREAM VORTEX DROPS S FROM HUDSON
BAY...DELIVERING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS AS
WELL AS TIMING AND DETAILS OF PRECIP WHICH WILL DEPEND ON THE
PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW AND ATTENDING SFC LOW.

DETAILS...

TUE NIGHT...
LOW PRES S OF NEW ENG TUE EVENING WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE AS SFC
RIDGING BUILDS S INTO NEW ENG. ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BE EXITING THE
REGION IN THE EVENING AND MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY...BUT CANT
RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
LIFTS TO THE N OF THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY...
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH MID ATLC REGION THEN NE ALONG
THE COAST WILL LIKELY GENERATE ANOTHER SFC WAVE S OF NEW ENG. WEAK
WARM ADVECTION COMBINED WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
MORE SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH BEST FOCUS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. LOW
CONFIDENCE TEMP FORECAST GIVEN WIDE RANGE IN MODEL GUIDANCE WITH
ECMWF IN THE 40S...GFS 50S AND NAM 60S. LOW LEVEL NE FLOW AND
DAMMING SIGNATURE WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON HOW COOL. WE WILL LEAN TOWARD GFS WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S WHICH IS A COMPROMISE...BUT POTENTIAL FOR COOLER EXITS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TIMES DURING THIS PERIOD BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...DURATION AND EXTENT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.
CLOSED LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE MID ATLC
COAST...BUT EXACT LOCATION SOUTH OF NEW ENG IS UNCERTAIN AND THIS
WILL IMPACT SENSIBLE WEATHER. WHILE IT MAY BE WET AT TIMES THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER AS WELL. IT DOES APPEAR COLD FRONT
WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL KICK LOW PRES OUT TO SEA
BUT BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS IS ALSO
LOW AND WILL DEPEND ON EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AND WHETHER THERE IS
ANY BREAKS OF SUN. TEMPS WOULD LIKELY REACH WELL INTO THE 60S IN THE
INTERIOR WITH ANY SUN...BUT COOLER ALONG THE COAST WITH PERSISTENT
E/NE FLOW. MILDEST DAY MAY BE SUN AS WINDS TURN SW AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT WITH 70+ DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/...

THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  STEADY/HEAVY
RAIN HAS ALREADY MOVED OFF THE EASTERN MA COAST AT MID AFTERNOON AND
JUST EXPECTED SCATTERED SHOWERS THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.  IFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SOME LOCATIONS MAY IMPROVE TO LOW
END MVFR.  IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. DRY WEATHER THIS
EVENING OTHER THAN A SPOT SHOWER...BUT BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL
MOVE INTO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF MA TURNPIKE FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z. SOME SHOWERS MAY REACH NEAR THE NH BORDER...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FURTHER NORTH.

TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  BULK OF SHOWERS MOVES EAST
OF THE REGION TUE MORNING.  OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE
REST OF TUE BUT MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS PERSIST WITH THE LOWER
CONDITIONS LIKELY ON THE COAST.  SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED INLAND FROM THE COAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  IFR CONDITIONS MAY
BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING IF WINDS CAN
TEMPORARILY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. IF SO...IFR CONDITIONS PROBABLY
RE-DEVELOP AFTER 10Z WITH A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  IFR CONDITIONS PROBABLY
IMPROVE TO LOW END MVFR THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH A FEW
SHOWERS AT TIMES.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR SEAS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE
OUTER WATERS.  SEAS WILL BE AROUND 5 FEET ON THESE WATERS.
OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA AND MAIN ISSUE WILL
BE PERIODS OF RAIN AND FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.  THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...THERE MAY BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ON THE SOUTHERN
WATERS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

SURFACE FLOW IS MOSTLY EAST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SPEEDS BELOW SCA. SEAS WILL LIKELY APPROACH 5 FT OVER THE OUTER
WATERS FROM SWELL GENERATED BY THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. VSBYS
MAY BE REDUCED AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...FRANK/KJC
MARINE...KJC/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 021538
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1137 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARM FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT NORTH OF THE SOUTH COAST THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE STALLING OUT TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS UP ALONG
THE FRONT TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE
REGION. YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY AND STALLS OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING A CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE DRY PERIODS AS WELL. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

***BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS IN WESTERN MA/CT ALONG WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY
AFTERNOON***

1135 AM UPDATE...

BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT WILL MOVE INTO
EASTERN MA/RI THOUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.  MAIN FOCUS FOR THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE NORTHWEST OF THE SOUTH COAST CLOSER TO THE BETTER
DYNAMICS. THERE ALSO WERE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN CT
AND A FEW OF THESE MAY SURVIVE INTO PORTIONS OVER RHODE ISLAND IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...GIVEN MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

OTHERWISE...SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED FORCING SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BY 3
OR 4 PM...SO BY THEN JUST A FEW LINGERING SPOT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
SOME MORE DRIZZLE.

AS FOR TEMPS...THINK THEY WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH GIVEN NORTHEAST
FLOW AND LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES.  HIGHS SHOULD STILL GET INTO THE
50S SOUTH OF THE PIKE...BUT AREAS NORTH OF THE PIKE MAY NOT BREAK 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
WET PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT STALLED JUST
SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE
TRAVELING ALONG IT.  NOT EXPECTING THE ENTIRE PERIOD TO BE
RAINY...BUT PERIODS OF RAIN COUPLED WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG
WILL KEEP THE AREA IN THE GRAY...DAMP...COOL THAT WE OFTEN ASSOCIATE
WITH APRIL RATHER THAN MAY.  THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF LINGERING
ELEVATED INSTABILITY EARLY TONIGHT...BUT AT MOST EXPECT A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RATHER STEADY GIVEN THE MOISTURE WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S NORTH TO
UPPER 40S SOUTH AND HIGH TEMPERATURES BARELY CLIMBING INTO THE 50S
DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AT TIMES INTO NEXT
  WEEKEND BUT THERE WILL BE DRY PERIODS AS WELL
* MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...BUT MILDER NEXT WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD FEATURING A DEVELOPING OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS THE CENTRAL US WITH
CLOSED LOWS MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST AND DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE
GT LAKES TO THE MID ATLC COAST. STRONG BLOCKING DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL ENSURE THAT THIS PATTERN WILL BE SLOW TO
BREAK DOWN SO WE ARE LOOKING AT AN UNSETTLED PERIOD INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT DRY PERIODS AS WELL. THERE ARE
SIGNS THAT THE CLOSED LOW COULD GET KICKED EAST BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AS NORTHERN STREAM VORTEX DROPS S FROM HUDSON
BAY...DELIVERING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS AS
WELL AS TIMING AND DETAILS OF PRECIP WHICH WILL DEPEND ON THE
PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW AND ATTENDING SFC LOW.

DETAILS...

TUE NIGHT...
LOW PRES S OF NEW ENG TUE EVENING WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE AS SFC
RIDGING BUILDS S INTO NEW ENG. ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BE EXITING THE
REGION IN THE EVENING AND MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY...BUT CANT
RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
LIFTS TO THE N OF THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY...
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH MID ATLC REGION THEN NE ALONG
THE COAST WILL LIKELY GENERATE ANOTHER SFC WAVE S OF NEW ENG. WEAK
WARM ADVECTION COMBINED WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
MORE SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH BEST FOCUS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. LOW
CONFIDENCE TEMP FORECAST GIVEN WIDE RANGE IN MODEL GUIDANCE WITH
ECMWF IN THE 40S...GFS 50S AND NAM 60S. LOW LEVEL NE FLOW AND
DAMMING SIGNATURE WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON HOW COOL. WE WILL LEAN TOWARD GFS WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S WHICH IS A COMPROMISE...BUT POTENTIAL FOR COOLER EXITS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TIMES DURING THIS PERIOD BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...DURATION AND EXTENT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.
CLOSED LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE MID ATLC
COAST...BUT EXACT LOCATION SOUTH OF NEW ENG IS UNCERTAIN AND THIS
WILL IMPACT SENSIBLE WEATHER. WHILE IT MAY BE WET AT TIMES THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER AS WELL. IT DOES APPEAR COLD FRONT
WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL KICK LOW PRES OUT TO SEA
BUT BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS IS ALSO
LOW AND WILL DEPEND ON EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AND WHETHER THERE IS
ANY BREAKS OF SUN. TEMPS WOULD LIKELY REACH WELL INTO THE 60S IN THE
INTERIOR WITH ANY SUN...BUT COOLER ALONG THE COAST WITH PERSISTENT
E/NE FLOW. MILDEST DAY MAY BE SUN AS WINDS TURN SW AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT WITH 70+ DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

1130 AM UPDATE...

BAND OF SHOWERS WORKS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 3 PM...BEFORE MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY MOVES OFFSHORE.  EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WERE IN
PROGRESS IN NORTHERN CT AND MAY MAKE IT INTO RHODE ISLAND OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO BEFORE WEAKENING.

WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  AT BEST...A FEW
BRIEF POP UPS TO MVFR ACROSS NW MA.  SCT RA AND -DZ AS WELL AS AREAS
OF FG LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING IN ON
AND OFF PERIODS OF RA AND FG.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING IN ON
AND OFF PERIODS OF RA AND FG.  EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAF
THROUGH 16Z.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH A FEW
SHOWERS AT TIMES.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR SEAS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE
OUTER WATERS.  SEAS WILL BE AROUND 5 FEET ON THESE WATERS.
OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA AND MAIN ISSUE WILL
BE PERIODS OF RAIN AND FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.  THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...THERE MAY BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ON THE SOUTHERN
WATERS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

SURFACE FLOW IS MOSTLY EAST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SPEEDS BELOW SCA. SEAS WILL LIKELY APPROACH 5 FT OVER THE OUTER
WATERS FROM SWELL GENERATED BY THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. VSBYS
MAY BE REDUCED AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...FRANK/KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 021435
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1035 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARM FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT NORTH OF THE SOUTH COAST THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE STALLING OUT TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS UP ALONG
THE FRONT TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE
REGION. YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY AND STALLS OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING A CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE DRY PERIODS AS WELL. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

***BAND OF SHOWERS SWEEPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION INTO THE
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND AREAS NORTH OF THE MA
TURNPIKE***

***A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN CT LATE THIS AM***

1035 AM UPDATE...

SHOWERS OVERSPREADING WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT AT LATE MORNING WITH
NEXT SHORTWAVE.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY SWEEP EAST ACROSS
A GOOD CHUNK OF THE REGION.  PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE IN OUR WESTERN
ZONES AND AREAS NORTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE...CLOSET TO THE BEST
FORCING.  MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN CT AND PERHAPS WESTERN MA MAINLY
THROUGH NOON.

OTHERWISE...SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED FORCING SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...SO BY THEN JUST A FEW LINGERING SPOT
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME MORE DRIZZLE.

AS FOR TEMPS...THINK THEY WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH GIVEN NORTHEAST
FLOW AND LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES.  HIGHS SHOULD STILL GET INTO THE
50S SOUTH OF THE PIKE...BUT AREAS NORTH OF THE PIKE MAY NOT BREAK 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
WET PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT STALLED JUST
SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE
TRAVELING ALONG IT.  NOT EXPECTING THE ENTIRE PERIOD TO BE
RAINY...BUT PERIODS OF RAIN COUPLED WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG
WILL KEEP THE AREA IN THE GRAY...DAMP...COOL THAT WE OFTEN ASSOCIATE
WITH APRIL RATHER THAN MAY.  THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF LINGERING
ELEVATED INSTABILITY EARLY TONIGHT...BUT AT MOST EXPECT A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RATHER STEADY GIVEN THE MOISTURE WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S NORTH TO
UPPER 40S SOUTH AND HIGH TEMPERATURES BARELY CLIMBING INTO THE 50S
DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AT TIMES INTO NEXT
  WEEKEND BUT THERE WILL BE DRY PERIODS AS WELL
* MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...BUT MILDER NEXT WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD FEATURING A DEVELOPING OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS THE CENTRAL US WITH
CLOSED LOWS MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST AND DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE
GT LAKES TO THE MID ATLC COAST. STRONG BLOCKING DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL ENSURE THAT THIS PATTERN WILL BE SLOW TO
BREAK DOWN SO WE ARE LOOKING AT AN UNSETTLED PERIOD INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT DRY PERIODS AS WELL. THERE ARE
SIGNS THAT THE CLOSED LOW COULD GET KICKED EAST BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AS NORTHERN STREAM VORTEX DROPS S FROM HUDSON
BAY...DELIVERING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS AS
WELL AS TIMING AND DETAILS OF PRECIP WHICH WILL DEPEND ON THE
PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW AND ATTENDING SFC LOW.

DETAILS...

TUE NIGHT...
LOW PRES S OF NEW ENG TUE EVENING WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE AS SFC
RIDGING BUILDS S INTO NEW ENG. ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BE EXITING THE
REGION IN THE EVENING AND MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY...BUT CANT
RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
LIFTS TO THE N OF THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY...
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH MID ATLC REGION THEN NE ALONG
THE COAST WILL LIKELY GENERATE ANOTHER SFC WAVE S OF NEW ENG. WEAK
WARM ADVECTION COMBINED WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
MORE SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH BEST FOCUS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. LOW
CONFIDENCE TEMP FORECAST GIVEN WIDE RANGE IN MODEL GUIDANCE WITH
ECMWF IN THE 40S...GFS 50S AND NAM 60S. LOW LEVEL NE FLOW AND
DAMMING SIGNATURE WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON HOW COOL. WE WILL LEAN TOWARD GFS WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S WHICH IS A COMPROMISE...BUT POTENTIAL FOR COOLER EXITS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TIMES DURING THIS PERIOD BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...DURATION AND EXTENT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.
CLOSED LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE MID ATLC
COAST...BUT EXACT LOCATION SOUTH OF NEW ENG IS UNCERTAIN AND THIS
WILL IMPACT SENSIBLE WEATHER. WHILE IT MAY BE WET AT TIMES THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER AS WELL. IT DOES APPEAR COLD FRONT
WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL KICK LOW PRES OUT TO SEA
BUT BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS IS ALSO
LOW AND WILL DEPEND ON EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AND WHETHER THERE IS
ANY BREAKS OF SUN. TEMPS WOULD LIKELY REACH WELL INTO THE 60S IN THE
INTERIOR WITH ANY SUN...BUT COOLER ALONG THE COAST WITH PERSISTENT
E/NE FLOW. MILDEST DAY MAY BE SUN AS WINDS TURN SW AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT WITH 70+ DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

940 AM UPDATE...

ONLY ADDITION FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST IS WE ARE WATCHING A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NY.  A FEW WERE ALREADY INTO NORTHERN
CT AND CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF EMBEDDED STORM OR TWO ACROSS WESTERN
MA.

WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  AT BEST...A FEW
BRIEF POP UPS TO MVFR ACROSS NW MA.  SCT RA AND -DZ AS WELL AS AREAS
OF FG LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING IN ON
AND OFF PERIODS OF RA AND FG.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING IN ON
AND OFF PERIODS OF RA AND FG.  EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAF
THROUGH 16Z.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH A FEW
SHOWERS AT TIMES.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR SEAS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE
OUTER WATERS.  SEAS WILL BE AROUND 5 FEET ON THESE WATERS.
OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA AND MAIN ISSUE WILL
BE PERIODS OF RAIN AND FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.  THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...THERE MAY BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ON THE SOUTHERN
WATERS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

SURFACE FLOW IS MOSTLY EAST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SPEEDS BELOW SCA. SEAS WILL LIKELY APPROACH 5 FT OVER THE OUTER
WATERS FROM SWELL GENERATED BY THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. VSBYS
MAY BE REDUCED AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG/KJC
MARINE...KJC/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 021344
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
945 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARM FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT NORTH OF THE SOUTH COAST THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE STALLING OUT TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS UP ALONG
THE FRONT TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE
REGION. YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY AND STALLS OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING A CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE DRY PERIODS AS WELL. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

***BAND OF SHOWERS SWEEPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE***

945 AM UPDATE...

NEXT BATCH OF SHOWERS ACROSS NY STATE WILL QUICKLY BE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE
NORTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE...CLOSER TO THE BETTER FORCING...BUT MOST
OF THE REGION WILL HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN EXCEPT THE FAR
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS. THERE ARE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
ACTIVITY IN SOUTHEAST NY...SO THERE IS A LOW RISK A FEW MAY SURVIVE
INTO WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT WITH SOME MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
OTHERWISE...SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED FORCING SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...SO BY THEN JUST A FEW LINGERING SPOT
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME MORE DRIZZLE.

AS FOR TEMPS...THINK THEY WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE MUCH GIVEN NORTHEAST
FLOW AND LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES.  HIGHS SHOULD STILL GET INTO THE
50S SOUTH OF THE PIKE...BUT AREAS NORTH OF THE PIKE MAY NOT BREAK 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
WET PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT STALLED JUST
SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE
TRAVELING ALONG IT.  NOT EXPECTING THE ENTIRE PERIOD TO BE
RAINY...BUT PERIODS OF RAIN COUPLED WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG
WILL KEEP THE AREA IN THE GRAY...DAMP...COOL THAT WE OFTEN ASSOCIATE
WITH APRIL RATHER THAN MAY.  THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF LINGERING
ELEVATED INSTABILITY EARLY TONIGHT...BUT AT MOST EXPECT A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RATHER STEADY GIVEN THE MOISTURE WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S NORTH TO
UPPER 40S SOUTH AND HIGH TEMPERATURES BARELY CLIMBING INTO THE 50S
DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AT TIMES INTO NEXT
  WEEKEND BUT THERE WILL BE DRY PERIODS AS WELL
* MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...BUT MILDER NEXT WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD FEATURING A DEVELOPING OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS THE CENTRAL US WITH
CLOSED LOWS MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST AND DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE
GT LAKES TO THE MID ATLC COAST. STRONG BLOCKING DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL ENSURE THAT THIS PATTERN WILL BE SLOW TO
BREAK DOWN SO WE ARE LOOKING AT AN UNSETTLED PERIOD INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT DRY PERIODS AS WELL. THERE ARE
SIGNS THAT THE CLOSED LOW COULD GET KICKED EAST BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AS NORTHERN STREAM VORTEX DROPS S FROM HUDSON
BAY...DELIVERING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS AS
WELL AS TIMING AND DETAILS OF PRECIP WHICH WILL DEPEND ON THE
PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW AND ATTENDING SFC LOW.

DETAILS...

TUE NIGHT...
LOW PRES S OF NEW ENG TUE EVENING WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE AS SFC
RIDGING BUILDS S INTO NEW ENG. ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BE EXITING THE
REGION IN THE EVENING AND MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY...BUT CANT
RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
LIFTS TO THE N OF THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY...
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH MID ATLC REGION THEN NE ALONG
THE COAST WILL LIKELY GENERATE ANOTHER SFC WAVE S OF NEW ENG. WEAK
WARM ADVECTION COMBINED WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
MORE SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH BEST FOCUS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. LOW
CONFIDENCE TEMP FORECAST GIVEN WIDE RANGE IN MODEL GUIDANCE WITH
ECMWF IN THE 40S...GFS 50S AND NAM 60S. LOW LEVEL NE FLOW AND
DAMMING SIGNATURE WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON HOW COOL. WE WILL LEAN TOWARD GFS WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S WHICH IS A COMPROMISE...BUT POTENTIAL FOR COOLER EXITS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TIMES DURING THIS PERIOD BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...DURATION AND EXTENT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.
CLOSED LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE MID ATLC
COAST...BUT EXACT LOCATION SOUTH OF NEW ENG IS UNCERTAIN AND THIS
WILL IMPACT SENSIBLE WEATHER. WHILE IT MAY BE WET AT TIMES THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER AS WELL. IT DOES APPEAR COLD FRONT
WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL KICK LOW PRES OUT TO SEA
BUT BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS IS ALSO
LOW AND WILL DEPEND ON EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AND WHETHER THERE IS
ANY BREAKS OF SUN. TEMPS WOULD LIKELY REACH WELL INTO THE 60S IN THE
INTERIOR WITH ANY SUN...BUT COOLER ALONG THE COAST WITH PERSISTENT
E/NE FLOW. MILDEST DAY MAY BE SUN AS WINDS TURN SW AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT WITH 70+ DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

940 AM UPDATE...

ONLY ADDITION FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST IS WE ARE WATCHING A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NY.  LOW RISK FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
SURVIVING INTO WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT THROUGH 16Z WITH MARGINAL
INSTABILITY.

WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  AT BEST...A FEW
BRIEF POP UPS TO MVFR ACROSS NW MA.  SCT RA AND -DZ AS WELL AS AREAS
OF FG LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING IN ON
AND OFF PERIODS OF RA AND FG.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING IN ON
AND OFF PERIODS OF RA AND FG.  LOW RISK OF AN EMBEDDED T-STORM
THROUGH 16Z.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH A FEW
SHOWERS AT TIMES.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR SEAS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE
OUTER WATERS.  SEAS WILL BE AROUND 5 FEET ON THESE WATERS.
OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA AND MAIN ISSUE WILL
BE PERIODS OF RAIN AND FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.  THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...THERE MAY BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ON THE SOUTHERN
WATERS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

SURFACE FLOW IS MOSTLY EAST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SPEEDS BELOW SCA. SEAS WILL LIKELY APPROACH 5 FT OVER THE OUTER
WATERS FROM SWELL GENERATED BY THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. VSBYS
MAY BE REDUCED AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG/KJC
MARINE...KJC/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 021109
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
709 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION TODAY...THEN SLIDES BACK TO
THE SOUTH AND STALLS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
TRAVELS UP ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER PERIOD
OF RAIN TO THE REGION. YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA DROPS THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND STALLS OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING A CONTINUED THREAT
OF SHOWERS ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE DRY PERIODS AS WELL. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
JUST SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS SE NEW ENG THIS MORNING ALONG
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. NEXT BATCH OF RAIN ASSOCD WITH
SHORTWAVE AND WARM FRONT MOVING NE FROM CENTRAL NY AND NE PA AND
SHOULD OVERSPREAD MOSTLY INTERIOR LOCATIONS 15-21Z AS THE
SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENG...WITH LESS COVERAGE NEAR
THE COAST. ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT FORECAST TIMING AND AREAL
COVERAGE OF RAIN. MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. THEREFORE...THERE COULD BE SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER WITH THE RAIN ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. NOT HIGH
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING TO PUT IT IN THE GRIDS AT THIS
POINT...BUT DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND THROUGH THE DAY.

LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH HAS AN ACCOMPANYING WARM FRONT THAT MODELS
DIFFER ON HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT COULD MOVE.  DEPENDING ON
WHICH MODEL VERIFIES...THE WARM FRONT COULD SURGE AS FAR NORTH AS
THE MA/NH BORDER...OR STAY JUST ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE SOUTH COAST.
THIS MAKES FOR A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST...AS AREAS SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT COULD SOAR INTO THE 60S...WHILE THOSE NORTH OF THE FRONT
WILL STAY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.  AT THIS POINT...HAVE THE WARM
FRONT STAYING JUST OFF THE SOUTH COAST WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE
50S FOR HIGHS.  WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
WET PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT STALLED JUST
SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE
TRAVELING ALONG IT.  NOT EXPECTING THE ENTIRE PERIOD TO BE
RAINY...BUT PERIODS OF RAIN COUPLED WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG
WILL KEEP THE AREA IN THE GRAY...DAMP...COOL THAT WE OFTEN ASSOCIATE
WITH APRIL RATHER THAN MAY.  THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF LINGERING
ELEVATED INSTABILITY EARLY TONIGHT...BUT AT MOST EXPECT A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RATHER STEADY GIVEN THE MOISTURE WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S NORTH TO
UPPER 40S SOUTH AND HIGH TEMPERATURES BARELY CLIMBING INTO THE 50S
DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AT TIMES INTO NEXT
  WEEKEND BUT THERE WILL BE DRY PERIODS AS WELL
* MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...BUT MILDER NEXT WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD FEATURING A DEVELOPING OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS THE CENTRAL US WITH
CLOSED LOWS MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST AND DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE
GT LAKES TO THE MID ATLC COAST. STRONG BLOCKING DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL ENSURE THAT THIS PATTERN WILL BE SLOW TO
BREAK DOWN SO WE ARE LOOKING AT AN UNSETTLED PERIOD INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT DRY PERIODS AS WELL. THERE ARE
SIGNS THAT THE CLOSED LOW COULD GET KICKED EAST BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AS NORTHERN STREAM VORTEX DROPS S FROM HUDSON
BAY...DELIVERING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS AS
WELL AS TIMING AND DETAILS OF PRECIP WHICH WILL DEPEND ON THE
PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW AND ATTENDING SFC LOW.

DETAILS...

TUE NIGHT...
LOW PRES S OF NEW ENG TUE EVENING WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE AS SFC
RIDGING BUILDS S INTO NEW ENG. ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BE EXITING THE
REGION IN THE EVENING AND MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY...BUT CANT
RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
LIFTS TO THE N OF THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY...
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH MID ATLC REGION THEN NE ALONG
THE COAST WILL LIKELY GENERATE ANOTHER SFC WAVE S OF NEW ENG. WEAK
WARM ADVECTION COMBINED WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
MORE SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH BEST FOCUS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. LOW
CONFIDENCE TEMP FORECAST GIVEN WIDE RANGE IN MODEL GUIDANCE WITH
ECMWF IN THE 40S...GFS 50S AND NAM 60S. LOW LEVEL NE FLOW AND
DAMMING SIGNATURE WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON HOW COOL. WE WILL LEAN TOWARD GFS WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S WHICH IS A COMPROMISE...BUT POTENTIAL FOR COOLER EXITS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TIMES DURING THIS PERIOD BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...DURATION AND EXTENT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.
CLOSED LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE MID ATLC
COAST...BUT EXACT LOCATION SOUTH OF NEW ENG IS UNCERTAIN AND THIS
WILL IMPACT SENSIBLE WEATHER. WHILE IT MAY BE WET AT TIMES THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER AS WELL. IT DOES APPEAR COLD FRONT
WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL KICK LOW PRES OUT TO SEA
BUT BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS IS ALSO
LOW AND WILL DEPEND ON EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AND WHETHER THERE IS
ANY BREAKS OF SUN. TEMPS WOULD LIKELY REACH WELL INTO THE 60S IN THE
INTERIOR WITH ANY SUN...BUT COOLER ALONG THE COAST WITH PERSISTENT
E/NE FLOW. MILDEST DAY MAY BE SUN AS WINDS TURN SW AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT WITH 70+ DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  AT BEST...A FEW
BRIEF POP UPS TO MVFR ACROSS NW MA.  SCT -RA AND -DZ AS WELL AS
AREAS OF FG LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING IN ON
AND OFF PERIODS OF -RA AND FG.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING IN
ON AND OFF PERIODS OF -RA AND FG.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH A FEW
SHOWERS AT TIMES.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR SEAS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE
OUTER WATERS.  SEAS WILL BE AROUND 5 FEET ON THESE WATERS.
OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA AND MAIN ISSUE WILL
BE PERIODS OF RAIN AND FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.  THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...THERE MAY BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ON THE SOUTHERN
WATERS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

SURFACE FLOW IS MOSTLY EAST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SPEEDS BELOW SCA. SEAS WILL LIKELY APPROACH 5 FT OVER THE OUTER
WATERS FROM SWELL GENERATED BY THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. VSBYS
MAY BE REDUCED AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 020710
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
310 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION TODAY...THEN SLIDES BACK TO
THE SOUTH AND STALLS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
TRAVELS UP ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER PERIOD
OF RAIN TO THE REGION. YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA DROPS THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND STALLS OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING A CONTINUED THREAT
OF SHOWERS ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE DRY PERIODS AS WELL. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

TODAY...A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO THE REGION.  WHILE THE BEST LIFT AND
DYNAMICS WILL BE TO THE NORTH WITH THE SHORTWAVE...EXPECT RAIN AT
TIMES ACROSS THE AREA.  THE BEST CHANCES OF THIS ARE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES...CLOSEST TO THE SHORTWAVE DYNAMICS...AND THE
SOUTHERNMOST ZONES...CLOSEST TO LOW PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  WITH THE DRY AIR NOW ERODED...MOST LOCATIONS
ARE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF THE DEWPOINT...EXPECT SLIGHTLY HEAVIER
QPF AMOUNTS WITH THE RAIN TODAY THAN WE SAW YESTERDAY.  MOST
LOCATIONS YESTERDAY SAW UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN.  EXPECT A
TENTH TO UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN TODAY WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS EXPECTED ALONG THE MA/NH BORDER AND ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.
MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST.  THEREFORE...THERE COULD BE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER WITH
THE RAIN ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.  NOT HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURRING TO PUT IT IN THE GRIDS AT THIS POINT...BUT DEFINITELY
SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND THROUGH THE DAY.

LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH HAS AN ACCOMPANYING WARM FRONT THAT MODELS
DIFFER ON HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT COULD MOVE.  DEPENDING ON
WHICH MODEL VERIFIES...THE WARM FRONT COULD SURGE AS FAR NORTH AS
THE MA/NH BORDER...OR STAY JUST ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE SOUTH COAST.
THIS MAKES FOR A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST...AS AREAS SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT COULD SOAR INTO THE 60S...WHILE THOSE NORTH OF THE FRONT
WILL STAY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.  AT THIS POINT...HAVE THE WARM
FRONT STAYING JUST OFF THE SOUTH COAST WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE
50S FOR HIGHS.  WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

WET PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT STALLED JUST
SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE
TRAVELING ALONG IT.  NOT EXPECTING THE ENTIRE PERIOD TO BE
RAINY...BUT PERIODS OF RAIN COUPLED WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG
WILL KEEP THE AREA IN THE GRAY...DAMP...COOL THAT WE OFTEN ASSOCIATE
WITH APRIL RATHER THAN MAY.  THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF LINGERING
ELEVATED INSTABILITY EARLY TONIGHT...BUT AT MOST EXPECT A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RATHER STEADY GIVEN THE MOISTURE WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S NORTH TO
UPPER 40S SOUTH AND HIGH TEMPERATURES BARELY CLIMBING INTO THE 50S
DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AT TIMES INTO NEXT
  WEEKEND BUT THERE WILL BE DRY PERIODS AS WELL
* MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...BUT MILDER NEXT WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD FEATURING A DEVELOPING OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS THE CENTRAL US WITH
CLOSED LOWS MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST AND DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE
GT LAKES TO THE MID ATLC COAST. STRONG BLOCKING DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL ENSURE THAT THIS PATTERN WILL BE SLOW TO
BREAK DOWN SO WE ARE LOOKING AT AN UNSETTLED PERIOD INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT DRY PERIODS AS WELL. THERE ARE
SIGNS THAT THE CLOSED LOW COULD GET KICKED EAST BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AS NORTHERN STREAM VORTEX DROPS S FROM HUDSON
BAY...DELIVERING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS AS
WELL AS TIMING AND DETAILS OF PRECIP WHICH WILL DEPEND ON THE
PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW AND ATTENDING SFC LOW.

DETAILS...

TUE NIGHT...
LOW PRES S OF NEW ENG TUE EVENING WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE AS SFC
RIDGING BUILDS S INTO NEW ENG. ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BE EXITING THE
REGION IN THE EVENING AND MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY...BUT CANT
RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
LIFTS TO THE N OF THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY...
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH MID ATLC REGION THEN NE ALONG
THE COAST WILL LIKELY GENERATE ANOTHER SFC WAVE S OF NEW ENG. WEAK
WARM ADVECTION COMBINED WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
MORE SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH BEST FOCUS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. LOW
CONFIDENCE TEMP FORECAST GIVEN WIDE RANGE IN MODEL GUIDANCE WITH
ECMWF IN THE 40S...GFS 50S AND NAM 60S. LOW LEVEL NE FLOW AND
DAMMING SIGNATURE WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON HOW COOL. WE WILL LEAN TOWARD GFS WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S WHICH IS A COMPROMISE...BUT POTENTIAL FOR COOLER EXITS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TIMES DURING THIS PERIOD BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...DURATION AND EXTENT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.
CLOSED LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE MID ATLC
COAST...BUT EXACT LOCATION SOUTH OF NEW ENG IS UNCERTAIN AND THIS
WILL IMPACT SENSIBLE WEATHER. WHILE IT MAY BE WET AT TIMES THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER AS WELL. IT DOES APPEAR COLD FRONT
WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL KICK LOW PRES OUT TO SEA
BUT BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS IS ALSO
LOW AND WILL DEPEND ON EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AND WHETHER THERE IS
ANY BREAKS OF SUN. TEMPS WOULD LIKELY REACH WELL INTO THE 60S IN THE
INTERIOR WITH ANY SUN...BUT COOLER ALONG THE COAST WITH PERSISTENT
E/NE FLOW. MILDEST DAY MAY BE SUN AS WINDS TURN SW AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT WITH 70+ DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  AT BEST...A FEW
BRIEF POP UPS TO MVFR ACROSS NW MA.  SCT -RA AND -DZ AS WELL AS
AREAS OF FG LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING IN ON
AND OFF PERIODS OF -RA AND FG.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING IN
ON AND OFF PERIODS OF -RA AND FG.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH A FEW
SHOWERS AT TIMES.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR SEAS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE
OUTER WATERS.  SEAS WILL BE AROUND 5 FEET ON THESE WATERS.
OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA AND MAIN ISSUE WILL
BE PERIODS OF RAIN AND FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.  THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...THERE MAY BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ON THE SOUTHERN
WATERS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

SURFACE FLOW IS MOSTLY EAST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SPEEDS BELOW SCA. SEAS WILL LIKELY APPROACH 5 FT OVER THE OUTER
WATERS FROM SWELL GENERATED BY THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. VSBYS
MAY BE REDUCED AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 020155
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
955 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT WITH WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT. THE FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION ON
MONDAY...THEN SLIDES BACK TO THE SOUTH AND STALLS MONDAY NIGHT ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST. LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS UP ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE REGION. YET ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE AREA DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND
STALLS OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIMITED MAINLY TO
SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND AT THIS TIME AND WILL
SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE NARROWED
QUITE A BIT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...BUT REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 10
DEGREE RANGE PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. EXPECT THEM TO
CONTINUE TO NARROW AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION. AREAS
CLOSEST TO THE COAST WHERE THE MOISTURE IS THE GREATEST WILL
LIKELY EXPERIENCE AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG
AND DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE FARTHER INLAND BUT BELIEVE THIS WOULDN/T
OCCUR TIL NEAR SUNRISE. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE
LOW TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...

COMPLEX SYSTEM TOMORROW AND INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. SEVERAL WAVES WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW RESULTING IN PERIODS OF
SHOWERY WEATHER. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EITHER OVER OR JUST NORTH AND WEST OF
SNE...WHERE THE BETTER DYNAMICS ARE LOCATED. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
FOR PRECIP WILL BE NORTH OF ROUTE 2 AS HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL REMAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIP TO REACH SOUTH OF THE PIKE.

THIS LOW MAY LIFT THE STALLED FRONT NORTHWARD RESULTING IN TEMPS
WARMING INTO THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST. BUT OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT IS SPREAD AMONGST
GUIDANCE...WITH THE GFS BRINGING THE FRONT WELL INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WHILE THE NAM AND EC KEEP IS CLOSER TO THE SOUTH COAST/PIKE.

ANOTHER BREAK IN THE PRECIP LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WEAK RIDGING
MOVES INTO THE REGION. PRECIP LOOKS TO PICK BACK UP AGAIN AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE FLOW. THIS WAVE WILL SPREAD PRECIP FROM
SW TO NE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM...DEPENDING ON WHERE IT
STALLS DURING THE DAY. RIGHT NOW HAVE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL PLENTY OF ROOM FOR THE WAVE TO BRING
PRECIP NORTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

LONGWAVE PATTERN MAINTAINS A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN USA THROUGH THE
COMING WEEK. THREE SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THIS PATTERN TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE THIRD SHORTWAVE CARVES OUT A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WHICH THEN DRIFTS EAST OVER THE WATERS SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND LATE WEEK. THIS ENTIRE PERIOD WILL FEATURE CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND.

THE DAILIES...

TUESDAY... AS NOTED...SHORTWAVE RACES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE
ASSOCIATED JET GENERATES A WAVE ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVING TO OUR
SOUTH...AND THAT WAVE MOVES UP THE FRONT TUESDAY. THIS WAVE
FOCUSES A 35-KNOT SOUTH JET TO OVERRUN THE LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST
FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND...RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL LIFT THAT MOVES
ACROSS DURING THE MORNING. THE BEST LIFT WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COAST AND ISLANDS...WE WILL FEATURE THE HIGHEST POPS IN
THIS AREA. THE NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S
AND 50S WITH WARMEST TEMPS IN WESTERN MASS/CT. CLOUDS AND
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPS IN THE 40S.

WEDNESDAY... SIGNS IN THE UPPER DATA THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...THIS
ONE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...CRUISES PAST AND GENERATES ANOTHER
WAVE ON THE FRONT. LESS OF A FOCUSED LOW LEVEL JET AND RESULTING
LIFT...BUT FORCING FROM THE UPPER JET SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE IN TWO PARTS. ONE AREA WILL BE
ALONG THE CAPE AND ISLANDS NEAREST THE OFFSHORE WAVE...THE SECOND
WILL BE IN THE INTERIOR UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES INTO PLACE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH SURFACE LOW OFF DELMARVA.  UPPER FLOW
IS SOUTHERLY BRINGING MILDER AIRMASS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER
JET IN THAT SOUTH FLOW WILL ALIGNED JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WITH
OUR AREA UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FORCING OF SCATTERED OR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WE TREND MAX TEMPS A LITTLE MILDER EACH DAY BUT MAINTAIN
MINS IN THE 40S EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO LOWER TO IFR AFTER 06Z AS STRATUS...PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE DEVELOPS. IFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGERING INTO EARLY MON
BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR. PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
DETAILS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
DETAILS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MODERATE CONFIDENCE

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY... IFR TUESDAY IN AREAS OF RAIN AND FOG. BEST
CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OVERALL QUIET BOATING WEATHER AS WINDS SHIFT MORE TO AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION. PERIODS OF RAIN...DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE ENTIRE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST TONIGHT
TO 5 FEET RESULTING IN SCA. AS THE WINDS TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY
TOMORROW...SEAS ALONG THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS WILL PICK UP ABOVE
5 FEET. SCA WILL CONTINUE FOR THOSE WATERS AS WELL INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MODERATE CONFIDENCE

SURFACE FLOW IS EASTERLY...MOSTLY NORTHEAST...THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH SPEEDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS. EVEN WITH A PERSISTENT DIRECTION SEA
HEIGHTS ON MOST OF THE WATERS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET. THE BEST
CHANCE OF 5 FOOT SEAS WILL BE ON THE OUTER WATERS WHERE HEIGHTS WILL
VARY BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FEET.  VSBYS WILL BE POOR AT TIMES TUESDAY WITH
RAIN AND FOG. VSBYS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MAY LOWER AT TIMES IN
SHOWERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 8
     AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 2
     AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 012307
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
707 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT WITH WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT. THE FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION ON
MONDAY...THEN SLIDES BACK TO THE SOUTH AND STALLS MONDAY NIGHT ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST. LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS UP ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE REGION. YET ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE AREA DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND
STALLS OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

7 PM UPDATE...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE BEEN WEAKENED BY THE DRY
AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. EVENING DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS RANGED FROM 5
DEGREES IN THE SOUTH TO 25 DEGREES IN THE NORTH. AS A
RESULT PCPN AMOUNTS TODAY HAVE RANGED FROM A TRACE TO ONE- TENTH
INCH...MOSTLY CLOSER TO THE LOWER END OF THE RANGE.

SURFACE LOW OFF ATLANTIC CITY WILL MOVE PAST THE SOUTH COAST
TONIGHT. AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST OF US THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS
WILL ALSO MOVE EAST. MOST SHOWERS SHOULD END 04Z-06Z. FOG AND
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WHERE DEPRESSIONS ARE
LOWEST AND THE AIR CLOSEST TO SATURATION. FARTHER NORTH AND INLAND
WHERE THE AIR IS DRIEST...FOG WILL BE RATHER DIFFICULT. BUT THERE
MAY BE SOME PATCHES FORMING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S...WITH UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE MASS EAST COAST AS WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO SATURATE. HAD
REPORTS OF SOME SLEET MIXED IN WITH LIGHT SHOWERS. BELIEVE THE
CHANCE WILL CONTINUE TO TONIGHT UNTIL 850 MB TEMPS WARM ABOVE 0C.
OTHERWISE CHILLY DAY ACROSS THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES STAY IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S.

SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING
DRAGGING A WARM FRONT OUT AHEAD OF IT. APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WAVE
ALONG THE FRONT WILL SPREAD STEADY RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST THIS
EVENING. PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END BETWEEN 04-06Z AS MID-LEVEL DRY
MOVES INTO THE AREA BETWEEN SYSTEMS. HOWEVER LOW LEVELS ARE QUITE
SATURATED PER MODEL CROSS SECTIONS RESULTING IN FOG AND DRIZZLE
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...

COMPLEX SYSTEM TOMORROW AND INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. SEVERAL WAVES WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW RESULTING IN PERIODS OF
SHOWERY WEATHER. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EITHER OVER OR JUST NORTH AND WEST OF
SNE...WHERE THE BETTER DYNAMICS ARE LOCATED. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
FOR PRECIP WILL BE NORTH OF ROUTE 2 AS HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL REMAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIP TO REACH SOUTH OF THE PIKE.

THIS LOW MAY LIFT THE STALLED FRONT NORTHWARD RESULTING IN TEMPS
WARMING INTO THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST. BUT OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT IS SPREAD AMONGST
GUIDANCE...WITH THE GFS BRINGING THE FRONT WELL INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WHILE THE NAM AND EC KEEP IS CLOSER TO THE SOUTH COAST/PIKE.

ANOTHER BREAK IN THE PRECIP LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WEAK RIDGING
MOVES INTO THE REGION. PRECIP LOOKS TO PICK BACK UP AGAIN AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE PASS THROUGH THE FLOW. THIS WAVE WILL SPREAD PRECIP FROM
SW TO NE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM...DEPENDING ON WHERE IT
STALLS DURING THE DAY. RIGHT NOW HAVE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL PLENTY OF ROOM FOR THE WAVE TO BRING
PRECIP NORTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

LONGWAVE PATTERN MAINTAINS A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN USA THROUGH THE
COMING WEEK. THREE SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THIS PATTERN TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE THIRD SHORTWAVE CARVES OUT A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WHICH THEN DRIFTS EAST OVER THE WATERS SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND LATE WEEK. THIS ENTIRE PERIOD WILL FEATURE CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND.

THE DAILIES...

TUESDAY... AS NOTED...SHORTWAVE RACES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE
ASSOCIATED JET GENERATES A WAVE ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVING TO OUR
SOUTH...AND THAT WAVE MOVES UP THE FRONT TUESDAY. THIS WAVE
FOCUSES A 35-KNOT SOUTH JET TO OVERRUN THE LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST
FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND...RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL LIFT THAT MOVES
ACROSS DURING THE MORNING. THE BEST LIFT WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COAST AND ISLANDS...WE WILL FEATURE THE HIGHEST POPS IN
THIS AREA. THE NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S
AND 50S WITH WARMEST TEMPS IN WESTERN MASS/CT. CLOUDS AND
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPS IN THE 40S.

WEDNESDAY... SIGNS IN THE UPPER DATA THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...THIS
ONE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...CRUISES PAST AND GENERATES ANOTHER
WAVE ON THE FRONT. LESS OF A FOCUSED LOW LEVEL JET AND RESULTING
LIFT...BUT FORCING FROM THE UPPER JET SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE IN TWO PARTS. ONE AREA WILL BE
ALONG THE CAPE AND ISLANDS NEAREST THE OFFSHORE WAVE...THE SECOND
WILL BE IN THE INTERIOR UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES INTO PLACE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH SURFACE LOW OFF DELMARVA.  UPPER FLOW
IS SOUTHERLY BRINGING MILDER AIRMASS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER
JET IN THAT SOUTH FLOW WILL ALIGNED JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WITH
OUR AREA UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FORCING OF SCATTERED OR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WE TREND MAX TEMPS A LITTLE MILDER EACH DAY BUT MAINTAIN
MINS IN THE 40S EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO LOWER TO IFR AFTER 06Z AS STRATUS...PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE DEVELOPS. IFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGERING INTO EARLY MON
BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR. PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
DETAILS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
DETAILS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MODERATE CONFIDENCE

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY... IFR TUESDAY IN AREAS OF RAIN AND FOG. BEST
CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OVERALL QUIET BOATING WEATHER AS WINDS SHIFT MORE TO A EASTERLY
DIRECTION. PERIODS OF RAIN...DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE ENTIRE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST TONIGHT
TO 5 FEET RESULTING IN SCA. AS THE WINDS TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY
TOMORROW...SEAS ALONG THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS WILL PICK UP ABOVE
5 FEET. SCA WILL CONTINUE FOR THOSE WATERS AS WELL INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MODERATE CONFIDENCE

SURFACE FLOW IS EASTERLY...MOSTLY NORTHEAST...THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH SPEEDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS. EVEN WITH A PERSISTENT DIRECTION SEA
HEIGHTS ON MOST OF THE WATERS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET. THE BEST
CHANCE OF 5 FOOT SEAS WILL BE ON THE OUTER WATERS WHERE HEIGHTS WILL
VARY BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FEET.  VSBYS WILL BE POOR AT TIMES TUESDAY WITH
RAIN AND FOG. VSBYS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MAY LOWER AT TIMES IN
SHOWERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 8
     AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 2
     AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 011936
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
336 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT. THE FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION
ON MONDAY...THEN SLIDES BACK TO THE SOUTH AND STALLS MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS STATIONARY FRONT STALLS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST TUESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS UP ALONG IT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER
PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE REGION. YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA DROPS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND STALLS OVER THE WATERS SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

4 PM UPDATE...

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AS LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO SATURATE. HAD REPORTS OF SOME SLEET MIXED
IN WITH LIGHT SHOWERS. BELIEVE THE CHANCE WILL CONTINUE TO
TONIGHT UNTIL 850 MB TEMPS WARM ABOVE 0C. OTHERWISE CHILLY DAY
ACROSS THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES STAY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING
DRAGGING A WARM FRONT OUT AHEAD OF IT. APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WAVE
ALONG THE FRONT WILL SPREAD STEADY RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST THIS
EVENING. PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END BETWEEN 04-06Z AS MID-LEVEL DRY
MOVES INTO THE AREA BETWEEN SYSTEMS. HOWEVER LOW LEVELS ARE QUITE
SATURATED PER MODEL CROSS SECTIONS RESULTING IN FOG AND DRIZZLE
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL DROP DOWN
INTO THE 40S...WITH UPPER 40S ACROSS THE MASS EAST COAST AS WINDS
REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...

COMPLEX SYSTEM TOMORROW AND INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. SEVERAL WAVES WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW RESULTING IN PERIODS OF
SHOWERY WEATHER. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EITHER OVER OR JUST NORTH AND WEST OF
SNE...WHERE THE BETTER DYNAMICS ARE LOCATED. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
FOR PRECIP WILL BE NORTH OF ROUTE 2 AS HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL REMAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIP TO REACH SOUTH OF THE PIKE.

THIS LOW MAY LIFT THE STALLED FRONT NORTHWARD RESULTING IN TEMPS
WARMING INTO THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST. BUT OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT IS SPREAD AMONGST
GUIDANCE...WITH THE GFS BRINGING THE FRONT WELL INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WHILE THE NAM AND EC KEEP IS CLOSER TO THE SOUTH COAST/PIKE.

ANOTHER BREAK IN THE PRECIP LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WEAK RIDGING
MOVES INTO THE REGION. PRECIP LOOKS TO PICK BACK UP AGAIN AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE PASS THROUGH THE FLOW. THIS WAVE WILL SPREAD PRECIP FROM
SW TO NE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM...DEPENDING ON WHERE IT
STALLS DURING THE DAY. RIGHT NOW HAVE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL PLENTY OF ROOM FOR THE WAVE TO BRING
PRECIP NORTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

LONGWAVE PATTERN MAINTAINS A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN USA THROUGH THE
COMING WEEK. THREE SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THIS PATTERN TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE THIRD SHORTWAVE CARVES OUT A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WHICH THEN DRIFTS EAST OVER THE WATERS SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND LATE WEEK. THIS ENTIRE PERIOD WILL FEATURE CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND.

THE DAILIES...

TUESDAY... AS NOTED...SHORTWAVE RACES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE
ASSOCIATED JET GENERATES A WAVE ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVING TO OUR
SOUTH...AND THAT WAVE MOVES UP THE FRONT TUESDAY. THIS WAVE
FOCUSES A 35-KNOT SOUTH JET TO OVERRUN THE LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST
FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND...RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL LIFT THAT MOVES
ACROSS DURING THE MORNING. THE BEST LIFT WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COAST AND ISLANDS...WE WILL FEATURE THE HIGHEST POPS IN
THIS AREA. THE NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S
AND 50S WITH WARMEST TEMPS IN WESTERN MASS/CT. CLOUDS AND
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPS IN THE 40S.

WEDNESDAY... SIGNS IN THE UPPER DATA THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...THIS
ONE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...CRUISES PAST AND GENERATES ANOTHER
WAVE ON THE FRONT. LESS OF A FOCUSED LOW LEVEL JET AND RESULTING
LIFT...BUT FORCING FROM THE UPPER JET SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE IN TWO PARTS. ONE AREA WILL BE
ALONG THE CAPE AND ISLANDS NEAREST THE OFFSHORE WAVE...THE SECOND
WILL BE IN THE INTERIOR UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES INTO PLACE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH SURFACE LOW OFF DELMARVA.  UPPER FLOW
IS SOUTHERLY BRINGING MILDER AIRMASS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER
JET IN THAT SOUTH FLOW WILL ALIGNED JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WITH
OUR AREA UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FORCING OF SCATTERED OR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WE TREND MAX TEMPS A LITTLE MILDER EACH DAY BUT MAINTAIN
MINS IN THE 40S EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING
TO MVFR TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TO IFR AFTER
06Z AS STRATUS...PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE DEVELOPS. IFR CONDITIONS
WILL LINGERING INTO EARLY MON BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR.
PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
DETAILS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
DETAILS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MODERATE CONFIDENCE

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY... IFR TUESDAY IN AREAS OF RAIN AND FOG. BEST
CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OVERALL QUIET BOATING WEATHER AS WINDS SHIFT MORE TO A EASTERLY
DIRECTION. PERIODS OF RAIN...DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE ENTIRE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST TONIGHT
TO 5 FEET RESULTING IN SCA. AS THE WINDS TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY
TOMORROW...SEAS ALONG THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS WILL PICK UP ABOVE
5 FEET. SCA WILL CONTINUE FOR THOSE WATERS AS WELL INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MODERATE CONFIDENCE

SURFACE FLOW IS EASTERLY...MOSTLY NORTHEAST...THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH SPEEDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS. EVEN WITH A PERSISTENT DIRECTION SEA
HEIGHTS ON MOST OF THE WATERS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET. THE BEST
CHANCE OF 5 FOOT SEAS WILL BE ON THE OUTER WATERS WHERE HEIGHTS WILL
VARY BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FEET.  VSBYS WILL BE POOR AT TIMES TUESDAY WITH
RAIN AND FOG. VSBYS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MAY LOWER AT TIMES IN
SHOWERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 8
     AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 2
     AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 011923
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
323 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING TWO BURSTS OF
RAIN TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...ONE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND
THE SECOND ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT STALLS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS UP ALONG IT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER
PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE REGION. YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA DROPS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND STALLS OVER THE WATERS SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
1000 AM UPDATE...

SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN ZONES THIS MORNING WITH THE
LEADING EDGING MAKING IT TO WORCESTER AND GROTON AS OF 1000 AM.
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY LOW LEVELS ACROSS EASTERN MASS/RI
SO IT MAY TAKE ANOTHER FEW HOURS BEFORE ANY HEAVY PRECIP MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW SPRINKLES OR A LIGHT SHOWER PRIOR TOO. OVERALL ANTICIPATE
PERIODS OF SHOWERS TODAY AS FORCING AND DYNAMICS ARE NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE. PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END THIS EVENING...BUT WITH A
SATURATED LOW LEVEL ANTICIPATE DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT.

TEMPS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE 50S IN E NEW ENG WHERE THERE
WILL BE SOME MORNING SUN BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN...WITH TEMPS CLOSER
TO 50 DEGREES IN W NEW ENG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...RAIN CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  MODELS SUGGEST
THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN FOR A PERIOD OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS THAT AREAS OF DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY
DURING THE BREAK IN HEAVIER RAIN.  LOW CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.

MONDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ALLOWING A COASTAL LOW TO DEVELOP
SOUTH OF THE AREA.  IN ADDITION...MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY.  THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER ACCOMPANYING
THE RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

BIG PICTURE...

LONGWAVE PATTERN MAINTAINS A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN USA THROUGH THE
COMING WEEK. THREE SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THIS PATTERN TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE THIRD SHORTWAVE CARVES OUT A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WHICH THEN DRIFTS EAST OVER THE WATERS SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND LATE WEEK. THIS ENTIRE PERIOD WILL FEATURE CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND.

THE DAILIES...

TUESDAY... AS NOTED...SHORTWAVE RACES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE
ASSOCIATED JET GENERATES A WAVE ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVING TO OUR
SOUTH...AND THAT WAVE MOVES UP THE FRONT TUESDAY. THIS WAVE FOCUSSES
A 35-KNOT SOUTH JET TO OVERRUN THE LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW OVER NEW
ENGLAND...RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL LIFT THAT MOVES ACROSS DURING THE
MORNING. THE BEST LIFT WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAST AND
ISLANDS...WE WILL FEATURE THE HIGHEST POPS IN THIS AREA. THE
NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S WITH
WARMEST TEMPS IN WESTERN MASS/CT. CLOUDS AND NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
KEEP TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPS IN THE 40S.

WEDNESDAY... SIGNS IN THE UPPER DATA THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...THIS
ONE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...CRUISES PAST AND GENERATES ANOTHER
WAVE ON THE FRONT. LESS OF A FOCUSSED LOW LEVEL JET AND RESULTING
LIFT...BUT FORCING FROM THE UPPER JET SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE IN TWO PARTS. ONE AREA WILL BE ALONG
THE CAPE AND ISLANDS NEAREST THE OFFSHORE WAVE...THE SECOND WILL BE
IN THE INTERIOR UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES INTO PLACE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH SURFACE LOW OFF DELMARVA.  UPPER FLOW
IS SOUTHERLY BRINGING MILDER AIRMASS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER
JET IN THAT SOUTH FLOW WILL ALIGNED JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WITH
OUR AREA UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FORCING OF SCATTERED OR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WE TREND MAX TEMPS A LITTLE MILDER EACH DAY BUT MAINTAIN
MINS IN THE 40S EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY IN E NEW
ENG...BUT LOWERING TO MVFR DURING THE AFTERNOON IN W NEW ENG.
RAIN MOVES INTO W MA/CT BETWEEN 14-16Z BUT NOT REACHING E COASTAL
MA UNTIL AROUND 20Z. CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR TONIGHT AS
STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS...LINGERING INTO MON WITH CHANCE
OF RAIN AT TIMES.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
DETAILS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
DETAILS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MODERATE CONFIDENCE

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY... IFR TUESDAY IN AREAS OF RAIN AND FOG. BEST
CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WATERS.  WINDS...SEAS...AND CLOUDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  SEAS INCREASE
TO 5 FT TONIGHT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MODERATE CONFIDENCE

SURFACE FLOW IS EASTERLY...MOSTLY NORTHEAST...THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH SPEEDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS. EVEN WITH A PERSISTENT DIRECTION SEA
HEIGHTS ON MOST OF THE WATERS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET. THE BEST
CHANCE OF 5 FOOT SEAS WILL BE ON THE OUTER WATERS WHERE HEIGHTS WILL
VARY BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FEET.  VSBYS WILL BE POOR AT TIMES TUESDAY WITH
RAIN AND FOG. VSBYS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MAY LOWER AT TIMES IN
SHOWERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 8
     AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 2
     AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 011409
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1009 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING TWO BURSTS OF
RAIN TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...ONE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND
THE SECOND ON MONDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN IS LIKELY ON
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE. MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1000 AM UPDATE...

SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN ZONES THIS MORNING WITH THE
LEADING EDGING MAKING IT TO WORCESTER AND GROTON AS OF 1000 AM.
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY LOW LEVELS ACROSS EASTERN MASS/RI
SO IT MAY TAKE ANOTHER FEW HOURS BEFORE ANY HEAVY PRECIP MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW SPRINKLES OR A LIGHT SHOWER PRIOR TOO. OVERALL ANTICIPATE
PERIODS OF SHOWERS TODAY AS FORCING AND DYNAMICS ARE NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE. PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END THIS EVENING...BUT WITH A
SATURATED LOW LEVEL ANTICIPATE DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT.

TEMPS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE 50S IN E NEW ENG WHERE THERE
WILL BE SOME MORNING SUN BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN...WITH TEMPS CLOSER
TO 50 DEGREES IN W NEW ENG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...RAIN CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  MODELS SUGGEST
THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN FOR A PERIOD OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS THAT AREAS OF DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY
DURING THE BREAK IN HEAVIER RAIN.  LOW CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.

MONDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ALLOWING A COASTAL LOW TO DEVELOP
SOUTH OF THE AREA.  IN ADDITION...MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY.  THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER ACCOMPANYING
THE RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* RAIN LIKELY TUE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE PIKE
* MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUING FROM
  MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...
VERY AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKY PATTERN SETS UP IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH STRONG OMEGA BLOCK DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL US FROM MIDWEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND. CUT OFF LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST WITH
AMPLIFYING TROF OVER THE GT LAKES LEADING TO A SECOND CUT OFF
DROPPING SOUTH TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH OF NEW ENG.
STRONG DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN A
STALLED PATTERN WITH CUTOFF PERSISTING ALONG THE E COAST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIODS
OF SHOWERS FROM TO TIME FROM MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EXACT
DETAILS AND TIMING OF WET WEATHER IS UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON
PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW.

DAILIES...

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...
INITIAL LOW PRES WILL BE EXITING THE REGION MON EVENING WITH A
PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS MON NIGHT...BUT MID LEVEL TROF
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL LEAD TO A FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST LATE MON NIGHT AND TRACKING S OF NEW ENG
TUE. DEEP MOISTURE AND OMEGA MOVING BACK INTO NEW ENG FROM THE SOUTH
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN LATE MON NIGHT INTO
TUE...ESPECIALLY S OF THE MASS PIKE. POPS WERE INCREASED ACCORDINGLY
AS ALL MODELS BRING RAIN TO SNE WITH QPF AVERAGING 0.10-0.25" WITH
LOCALLY UP TO 0.50". TEMPS BELOW NORMAL TUE.

WEDNESDAY...
CUT OFF LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO THE GT LAKES WITH RATHER ROBUST
SHORTWAVE TO THE SOUTH ROTATING AROUND THE LOW AND APPROACHING SNE.
THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER SFC WAVE MOVING UP THE COAST FROM THE
SOUTH WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS MOVING INTO SNE. TIMING
UNCERTAIN.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LIKELY BUT LOW CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING AND EXTENT OF SHOWERS AS WELL AS TEMP FORECAST WHICH WILL
DEPEND ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE LOW. IF THE CUTOFF LOW MOVES
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH IT IS POSSIBLE THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER BUT THIS IS VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY IN E NEW
ENG...BUT LOWERING TO MVFR DURING THE AFTERNOON IN W NEW ENG.
RAIN MOVES INTO W MA/CT BETWEEN 14-16Z BUT NOT REACHING E COASTAL
MA UNTIL AROUND 20Z. CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR TONIGHT AS
STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS...LINGERING INTO MON WITH CHANCE
OF RAIN AT TIMES.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
DETAILS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
DETAILS.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN REDEVELOPING LATE MON NIGHT INTO
TUE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE PIKE.

WED AND THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONTINUING
WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WATERS.  WINDS...SEAS...AND CLOUDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  SEAS INCREASE
TO 5 FT TONIGHT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MON NIGHT AND TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS BELOW SCA. WEST WINDS
MON NIGHT BECOMING NE TUE. VSBYS REDUCED IN PERIODS OF RAIN LATE MON
NIGHT AND TUE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH COASTAL WATERS.

WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOW PRES TO THE SOUTH WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN NE WINDS...MAINLY BELOW SCA. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

THU...LOW CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION
OF LOW PRES. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 011125
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
725 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING TWO BURSTS OF
RAIN TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...ONE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND
THE SECOND ON MONDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN IS LIKELY ON
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE. MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
715 AM UPDATE...
LEADING EDGE OF RAIN STILL BACK ACROSS EASTERN NY AND ADVANCING
EAST. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR BELOW 850 MB WILL DELAY ONSET OF
RAIN AS IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL HOURS FOR LOW LEVELS TO
MOISTEN...ESPECIALLY E NEW ENG. EXPECT RAIN TO REACH CT VALLEY
LATER THIS MORNING TO MIDDAY BUT NOT UNTIL LATE TODAY ACROSS E MA
WHERE MOST OF THE DAY MAY BE DRY. TEMPS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE
50S IN E NEW ENG WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME MORNING SUN BEFORE
CLOUDS THICKEN...WITH TEMPS CLOSER TO 50 DEGREES IN W NEW ENG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...RAIN CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  MODELS SUGGEST
THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN FOR A PERIOD OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS THAT AREAS OF DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY
DURING THE BREAK IN HEAVIER RAIN.  LOW CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.

MONDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ALLOWING A COASTAL LOW TO DEVELOP
SOUTH OF THE AREA.  IN ADDITION...MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY.  THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER ACCOMPANYING
THE RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* RAIN LIKELY TUE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE PIKE
* MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUING FROM
  MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...
VERY AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKY PATTERN SETS UP IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH STRONG OMEGA BLOCK DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL US FROM MIDWEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND. CUT OFF LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST WITH
AMPLIFYING TROF OVER THE GT LAKES LEADING TO A SECOND CUT OFF
DROPPING SOUTH TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH OF NEW ENG.
STRONG DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN A
STALLED PATTERN WITH CUTOFF PERSISTING ALONG THE E COAST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIODS
OF SHOWERS FROM TO TIME FROM MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EXACT
DETAILS AND TIMING OF WET WEATHER IS UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON
PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW.

DAILIES...

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...
INITIAL LOW PRES WILL BE EXITING THE REGION MON EVENING WITH A
PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS MON NIGHT...BUT MID LEVEL TROF
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL LEAD TO A FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST LATE MON NIGHT AND TRACKING S OF NEW ENG
TUE. DEEP MOISTURE AND OMEGA MOVING BACK INTO NEW ENG FROM THE SOUTH
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN LATE MON NIGHT INTO
TUE...ESPECIALLY S OF THE MASS PIKE. POPS WERE INCREASED ACCORDINGLY
AS ALL MODELS BRING RAIN TO SNE WITH QPF AVERAGING 0.10-0.25" WITH
LOCALLY UP TO 0.50". TEMPS BELOW NORMAL TUE.

WEDNESDAY...
CUT OFF LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO THE GT LAKES WITH RATHER ROBUST
SHORTWAVE TO THE SOUTH ROTATING AROUND THE LOW AND APPROACHING SNE.
THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER SFC WAVE MOVING UP THE COAST FROM THE
SOUTH WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS MOVING INTO SNE. TIMING
UNCERTAIN.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LIKELY BUT LOW CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING AND EXTENT OF SHOWERS AS WELL AS TEMP FORECAST WHICH WILL
DEPEND ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE LOW. IF THE CUTOFF LOW MOVES
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH IT IS POSSIBLE THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER BUT THIS IS VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY IN E NEW
ENG...BUT LOWERING TO MVFR DURING THE AFTERNOON IN W NEW ENG.
RAIN MOVES INTO W MA/CT BETWEEN 14-16Z BUT NOT REACHING E COASTAL
MA UNTIL AROUND 21Z. CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR TONIGHT AS STRATUS
AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS...LINGERING INTO MON WITH CHANCE OF RAIN
AT TIMES.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
DETAILS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
DETAILS.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN REDEVELOPING LATE MON NIGHT INTO
TUE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE PIKE.

WED AND THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONTINUING
WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WATERS.  WINDS...SEAS...AND CLOUDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  SEAS INCREASE
TO 5 FT TONIGHT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MON NIGHT AND TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS BELOW SCA. WEST WINDS
MON NIGHT BECOMING NE TUE. VSBYS REDUCED IN PERIODS OF RAIN LATE MON
NIGHT AND TUE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH COASTAL WATERS.

WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOW PRES TO THE SOUTH WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN NE WINDS...MAINLY BELOW SCA. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

THU...LOW CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION
OF LOW PRES. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 011125
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
725 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING TWO BURSTS OF
RAIN TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...ONE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND
THE SECOND ON MONDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN IS LIKELY ON
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE. MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
715 AM UPDATE...
LEADING EDGE OF RAIN STILL BACK ACROSS EASTERN NY AND ADVANCING
EAST. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR BELOW 850 MB WILL DELAY ONSET OF
RAIN AS IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL HOURS FOR LOW LEVELS TO
MOISTEN...ESPECIALLY E NEW ENG. EXPECT RAIN TO REACH CT VALLEY
LATER THIS MORNING TO MIDDAY BUT NOT UNTIL LATE TODAY ACROSS E MA
WHERE MOST OF THE DAY MAY BE DRY. TEMPS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE
50S IN E NEW ENG WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME MORNING SUN BEFORE
CLOUDS THICKEN...WITH TEMPS CLOSER TO 50 DEGREES IN W NEW ENG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...RAIN CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  MODELS SUGGEST
THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN FOR A PERIOD OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS THAT AREAS OF DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY
DURING THE BREAK IN HEAVIER RAIN.  LOW CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.

MONDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ALLOWING A COASTAL LOW TO DEVELOP
SOUTH OF THE AREA.  IN ADDITION...MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY.  THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER ACCOMPANYING
THE RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* RAIN LIKELY TUE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE PIKE
* MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUING FROM
  MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...
VERY AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKY PATTERN SETS UP IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH STRONG OMEGA BLOCK DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL US FROM MIDWEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND. CUT OFF LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST WITH
AMPLIFYING TROF OVER THE GT LAKES LEADING TO A SECOND CUT OFF
DROPPING SOUTH TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH OF NEW ENG.
STRONG DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN A
STALLED PATTERN WITH CUTOFF PERSISTING ALONG THE E COAST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIODS
OF SHOWERS FROM TO TIME FROM MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EXACT
DETAILS AND TIMING OF WET WEATHER IS UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON
PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW.

DAILIES...

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...
INITIAL LOW PRES WILL BE EXITING THE REGION MON EVENING WITH A
PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS MON NIGHT...BUT MID LEVEL TROF
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL LEAD TO A FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST LATE MON NIGHT AND TRACKING S OF NEW ENG
TUE. DEEP MOISTURE AND OMEGA MOVING BACK INTO NEW ENG FROM THE SOUTH
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN LATE MON NIGHT INTO
TUE...ESPECIALLY S OF THE MASS PIKE. POPS WERE INCREASED ACCORDINGLY
AS ALL MODELS BRING RAIN TO SNE WITH QPF AVERAGING 0.10-0.25" WITH
LOCALLY UP TO 0.50". TEMPS BELOW NORMAL TUE.

WEDNESDAY...
CUT OFF LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO THE GT LAKES WITH RATHER ROBUST
SHORTWAVE TO THE SOUTH ROTATING AROUND THE LOW AND APPROACHING SNE.
THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER SFC WAVE MOVING UP THE COAST FROM THE
SOUTH WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS MOVING INTO SNE. TIMING
UNCERTAIN.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LIKELY BUT LOW CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING AND EXTENT OF SHOWERS AS WELL AS TEMP FORECAST WHICH WILL
DEPEND ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE LOW. IF THE CUTOFF LOW MOVES
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH IT IS POSSIBLE THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER BUT THIS IS VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY IN E NEW
ENG...BUT LOWERING TO MVFR DURING THE AFTERNOON IN W NEW ENG.
RAIN MOVES INTO W MA/CT BETWEEN 14-16Z BUT NOT REACHING E COASTAL
MA UNTIL AROUND 21Z. CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR TONIGHT AS STRATUS
AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS...LINGERING INTO MON WITH CHANCE OF RAIN
AT TIMES.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
DETAILS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
DETAILS.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN REDEVELOPING LATE MON NIGHT INTO
TUE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE PIKE.

WED AND THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONTINUING
WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WATERS.  WINDS...SEAS...AND CLOUDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  SEAS INCREASE
TO 5 FT TONIGHT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MON NIGHT AND TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS BELOW SCA. WEST WINDS
MON NIGHT BECOMING NE TUE. VSBYS REDUCED IN PERIODS OF RAIN LATE MON
NIGHT AND TUE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH COASTAL WATERS.

WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOW PRES TO THE SOUTH WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN NE WINDS...MAINLY BELOW SCA. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

THU...LOW CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION
OF LOW PRES. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 010749
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
349 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING TWO BURSTS OF
RAIN TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...ONE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND
THE SECOND ON MONDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN IS LIKELY ON
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE. MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  IN ADVANCE OF THIS LOW...RAIN WILL MOVE
INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING...REACHING THE EAST COAST
SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON.  EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE
RAIN.  NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS DOWN TODAY. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

TONIGHT...RAIN CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  MODELS SUGGEST
THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN FOR A PERIOD OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS THAT AREAS OF DRIZZLE ARE LIKELY
DURING THE BREAK IN HEAVIER RAIN.  LOW CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.

MONDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ALLOWING A COASTAL LOW TO DEVELOP
SOUTH OF THE AREA.  IN ADDITION...MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY.  THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER ACCOMPANYING
THE RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* RAIN LIKELY TUE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE PIKE
* MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUING FROM
  MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...
VERY AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKY PATTERN SETS UP IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH STRONG OMEGA BLOCK DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL US FROM MIDWEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND. CUT OFF LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST WITH
AMPLIFYING TROF OVER THE GT LAKES LEADING TO A SECOND CUT OFF
DROPPING SOUTH TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH OF NEW ENG.
STRONG DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN A
STALLED PATTERN WITH CUTOFF PERSISTING ALONG THE E COAST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIODS
OF SHOWERS FROM TO TIME FROM MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EXACT
DETAILS AND TIMING OF WET WEATHER IS UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON
PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW.

DAILIES...

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...
INITIAL LOW PRES WILL BE EXITING THE REGION MON EVENING WITH A
PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS MON NIGHT...BUT MID LEVEL TROF
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL LEAD TO A FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST LATE MON NIGHT AND TRACKING S OF NEW ENG
TUE. DEEP MOISTURE AND OMEGA MOVING BACK INTO NEW ENG FROM THE SOUTH
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN LATE MON NIGHT INTO
TUE...ESPECIALLY S OF THE MASS PIKE. POPS WERE INCREASED ACCORDINGLY
AS ALL MODELS BRING RAIN TO SNE WITH QPF AVERAGING 0.10-0.25" WITH
LOCALLY UP TO 0.50". TEMPS BELOW NORMAL TUE.

WEDNESDAY...
CUT OFF LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO THE GT LAKES WITH RATHER ROBUST
SHORTWAVE TO THE SOUTH ROTATING AROUND THE LOW AND APPROACHING SNE.
THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER SFC WAVE MOVING UP THE COAST FROM THE
SOUTH WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS MOVING INTO SNE. TIMING
UNCERTAIN.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LIKELY BUT LOW CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING AND EXTENT OF SHOWERS AS WELL AS TEMP FORECAST WHICH WILL
DEPEND ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE LOW. IF THE CUTOFF LOW MOVES
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH IT IS POSSIBLE THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER BUT THIS IS VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. RAIN
MOVES INTO W MA/CT BETWEEN 12-15Z TODAY REACHING THE EAST COAST
BETWEEN 15-18Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF ONSET OF RAIN.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF ONSET OF RAIN.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN REDEVELOPING LATE MON NIGHT INTO
TUE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE PIKE.

WED AND THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONTINUING
WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WATERS.  WINDS...SEAS...AND CLOUDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  SEAS INCREASE
TO 5 FT TONIGHT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MON NIGHT AND TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS BELOW SCA. WEST WINDS
MON NIGHT BECOMING NE TUE. VSBYS REDUCED IN PERIODS OF RAIN LATE MON
NIGHT AND TUE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH COASTAL WATERS.

WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOW PRES TO THE SOUTH WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN NE WINDS...MAINLY BELOW SCA. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

THU...LOW CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION
OF LOW PRES. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG




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