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000
FXUS61 KBOX 052103
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
403 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER OFFSHORE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION
ALLOWING WINDS AND SNOWS TO END THIS EVENING EVERYWHERE. COLDER
WEATHER FOLLOWS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY
WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY. A
PERIOD OR TWO OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN MA...BUT ITS UNCERTAIN IF THIS WILL
MAINLY BE A NUISANCE EVENT OR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

*** WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES DROP THIS EVENING ***
*** COLD AIR WILL ALLOW UNTREATED SURFACES TO FREEZE OVERNIGHT ***

BEST F-GEN BAND AROUND H6 COINCIDENT WITH HEAVY BANDED SNOW NOW
ORIENTED OVER CAPE/ISLANDS. ACK WAS THE FINAL PIN TO FALL INTO ALL
SNOW OVER THE LAST HOUR. THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO DROP ABOUT 2-3
INCH/HOUR SNOWFALL RATES ALONG WITH AREAS TO THE W STILL
RECEIVING AROUND AN INCH/HOUR. NOTING A STRONGER WESTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE FLOW THANKS TO STRONGER ISALLOBARIC WINDS WITH
THE LOW PRES MAKING ITS CLOSEST PASS TO THE E. THIS IS ALLOWING
FOR MORE DRY AIR TO WEDGE INTO THE LOWER LVLS. ITS ALL ENDED FOR
AREAS WEST OF WORCESTER AND TOLLAND COUNTIES.

THE SNOWS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFFSHORE AND END FROM W-E OVER THE
NEXT 3-4 HOURS...POSSIBLY ABOUT 6 HOURS FOR ACK. THIS SUGGESTS AN
ADDITIONAL 1-4 INCHES OF LOCALIZED SNOWFALL LEFT FOR THOSE STILL
RECEIVING SNOW. THE DRY AIR IS ASSOCIATED WITH VERY LOW SFC DWPTS
IN THE TEENS...WHICH WILL HELP ALLOWING TEMPS TO COOL WITH RAPIDLY
CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING. WILL ALLOW
THE CURRENT WARNINGS/ADVISORIES TO CONTINUE. INCLUDING THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WITH VERY STRONG PRES CHANGE
COUPLET NOTED ON MSAS/LAPS THROUGH THE EVENING JUST OFFSHORE. THIS
WILL GRADUALLY END THIS EVENING THOUGH...WITH WINDS DYING OFF AT
THE SFC.

SO...COMBINING THE CLEARING SKIES...ENDING SNOWS AND WEAKENING
PRES GRADIENT...GOOD SETUP FOR RAPID COOLING OVERNIGHT THANKS TO
DWPTS FALLING INTO THE LOW TEENS. SO A VERY COLD NIGHT AHEAD
BEHIND THIS STORM. GIVEN THE VERY WET NATURE OF THE SNOWFALL AND
CLEANUP EFFORTS TODAY...UNTREATED SFCS WILL LIKELY BECOME VERY
SLIPPERY OVERNIGHT WHERE THE LEFTOVER BREEZES ARE UNABLE TO DRY.
PATCHY BLACK ICE POSSIBLE. WILL BE ISSUING AN SPS FOR THIS RISK
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT MINS MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND LOW
20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
NOSE OF HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER FROM THE W. THE COMBINATION OF COLD
ADVECTION ALOFT AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW-MID LVL MOISTURE
SUGGESTS SOME AFTERNOON CLOUD DEVELOPMENT...BUT LITTLE ELSE.
DROPPED HIGHS A LITTLE BIT FROM CURRENT FORECASTS AS THE ADDED
SNOWPACK WILL LIKELY KEEP 2M TEMPS A BIT LOWER THAN SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY SUGGESTING. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WITH RELATIVELY MILD TEMPS SUN
* PERIOD OR TWO OF ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY MON-WED ESPECIALLY COAST
* UNCERTAIN IF MON-WED IS NUISANCE SNOW OR SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM

DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...

WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER.  LOW TEMPS
SAT NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 20S...BUT SOME UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORMALLY COLDER OUTLYING LOCATIONS.  PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON
SUNDAY AND WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW MUCH OF THE REGION TO SEE
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 40S.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

EXTREMELY COMPLEX AND DIFFICULT FORECAST OVER THIS TIME PERIOD.  A
COUPLE OF POTENT SHORTWAVES WILL CARVE OUT A DEEP EAST COAST TROUGH.
THERE IS SO MUCH ENERGY IN THE FLOW THAT THE MODELS ARE GOING TO
HAVE A TOUGH TIME ON RESOLVING WHAT EXACTLY UNFOLDS.

FIRST THING IS FIRST...AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE WILL EMERGE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST. CURRENT
INDICATIONS TAKE THE STORM SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK.  NOW OF
COURSE THAT IS 72+ HOURS OUT...SO A TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.  HOWEVER...EVEN IF
THE STORM PASSES WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK...MAY STILL END UP
WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EVENT ESPECIALLY ON THE COAST.  THIS
STORM LOOKS TO HAVE A FAIRLY BROAD CIRCULATION WITH 35 TO 50 KNOTS
OF ENE FLOW AT 850 MB...SO ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY FOR AT LEAST
THE COASTAL PLAIN.  ALSO...SOME LAND/SEA INTERFACE AND OCEAN
ENHANCEMENT MAY OCCUR IN EASTERN MA.

A SECOND POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND
TRACK NORTHEAST TUE INTO EARLY WED.  A LOT OF WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE AFFECTED BY THE STRENGTH/TRACK OF THE FIRST SYSTEM ON
MONDAY.  THERE ARE A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES...FROM A GLANCING
BLOW...TO A STRONG NOREASTER AND EVEN AN INVERTED TROUGH SETUP.

TO SUM UP...THE MAIN IDEA IS THAT WE ARE LIKELY TO RECEIVE AT LEAST
SOME SNOW AT TIMES MONDAY INTO WED.  WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE A
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM REMAINS TO BE SEEN...BUT AS MENTIONED IN
THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPHS ALL OPTIONS ARE ON THE TABLE.  WE ARE LIKELY
TO SEE AT LEAST SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY OVER THIS TIME FRAME.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH A WAVE
OR TWO OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MAY END UP BRINGING A BIT MORE
SNOW...BUT MUCH OF THIS PERIOD MAY END UP DRY.  GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE...WILL KEEP POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...TIMING MAY BE OFF A BIT.
AREAS OF LIFR/IFR IN HEAVY SNOW AND LOW CIGS CONTINUE THROUGH
ABOUT 20Z EVERYWHERE...THEN GIVE WAY TO VFR FROM W-E THROUGH 00Z.
STRONG N WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT OVER THE INTERIOR AND 30-40 KT
ALONG THE CAPE/ISLAND.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. ANY UNTREATED AND WET RUNWAYS WILL FREEZE AS
TEMPERATURES DROP RAPIDLY. WIND GUSTS REMAIN N-NW BUT DIMINISH
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TOMORROW...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW...BUT SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10 KT
OR LESS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...TIMING MAY BE OFF A
BIT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS....TIMING MAY BE OFF A
BIT.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ESPECIALLY ON TIMING.
PERIOD OR TWO OF SNOW LIKELY IN THIS TIME FRAME...SO WILL PROBABLY
SEE SOME IFR CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST ON MON. NORTHEAST
WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS LIKELY ON MONDAY ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
HOURS SUCH THAT MOST GALE WARNINGS CAN BE DROPPED BY ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL HAVE TO FOLLOW...BECAUSE
EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL DROP BELOW THRESHOLDS...HIGH SEAS OF 10-12
FT HAVE DEVELOPED AND WILL LINGER WELL INTO THE DAY TOMORROW.
SO...EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...MAINLY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS TO
FOLLOW.

AREAS OF SNOW/RAIN/FOG REDUCING VSBYS WILL COME TO AN END BETWEEN
6PM AND 10PM LOCAL.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LEFT OVER 5 FOOT SWELL
MAY LINGER INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR EASTERN OUTER-
WATERS.  OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS
LIKELY AS A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIKELY TRACKS
SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK.  THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A PERIOD
OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS IF THAT SYSTEM TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST
THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. SEAS LIKELY BUILD TO AT LEAST 15 FEET
ACROSS OUR EASTERN OUTER-WATERS WITH LONG NORTHEAST FETCH AND GOOD
MIXING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  AT THE VERY LEAST NORTHEAST
SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS AND HIGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUE EVENING.
HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS DEPENDING ON STRENGTH
AND LOCATION OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  BY WEDNESDAY WIND
GUSTS AND SEAS ARE QUITE UNCERTAIN...DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH
THAT SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MONDAY...

THERE IS A FAIRLY HIGH ASTRO TIDE OF 11.2 IN BOSTON LATE MONDAY
MORNING.  NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS FROM LARGE
CIRCULATION OF THE INTENSIFYING OCEAN STORM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
1 TO 1.5 SURGE.  SEAS SHOULD BE BUILT UP TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET
BY THEN...SO FEEL THERE IS A DECENT SHOT FOR POCKETS OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING ALONG EASTERN MA COAST.  THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR
POCKETS OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING...IF THE STORMS ENDS UP A BIT
FASTER AND TRACKING FURTHER WEST THAN CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...

MAIN CONCERN IS IF WE END UP WITH A SECOND AREA OF STRONG LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING UP THE COAST...WHICH COULD IMPACT ADDITIONAL HIGH
TIDE CYCLES. LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE ON WHETHER OR NOT THIS
HAPPENS.  IF SO...WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TUESDAY NOON HIGH TIDE
CYCLE ACROSS EASTERN MA AS BOSTON HAS AN 11.5 ASTRO TIDE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ003-
     004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ022-
     023.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MAZ019>021.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ004>007-012>018-026.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ022>024.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RIZ008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RIZ007.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     RIZ001>006.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>234-250-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 051731
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1231 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT STALLING OFFSHORE WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LOW PRESSURE
TO TRAVEL ALONG AFTER SUNRISE. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL DELIVER A
MIX OF RAIN CHANGING TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A WEAK
COLD FRONT SUNDAY MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS. A COMPLEX COASTAL STORM
SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
1 PM UPDATE...
CONTINUE TO REVISE SNOW MAP AS STRONG BANDING CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS BOTH ERN MA AND WESTERN/CENTRAL MA AT THIS TIME. HAVE
REPORTS ALREADY EXCEEDING 8 INCHES IN SEVERAL SPOTS AS A RESULT OF
THESE BANDS. RATIOS USED LIKELY TOO LOW IS PART OF THE ISSUE AS
THE FEW REPORTS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENTS ARE ON TARGET WITH QPF.
OTHERWISE...TIMING STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR ENDING LATER TODAY/THIS
AFTERNOON.

HAVE ADDED ADVISORIES FOR CAPE/VINEYARD AND ALSO HOISTED WIND
ADVISORIES THERE AS WELL AS STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS THE LOW
PRES MAKES IT/S CLOSEST PASS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

*** WESTWARD TREND IN THE SYSTEM HAS ALLOWED FOR WARNINGS AND
  ADVISORIES TO BE EXPANDED ***

BUSY NIGHT AS WE CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE LATEST DATA AND TRENDS FOR
THIS UPCOMING WINTER SYSTEM. PRECIP SHIELD CONTINUES TO MOVE
WESTWARD AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH STRENGTHENS. GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
POOL INTO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR PWATS TO BE CLOSE TO AN INCH.
BIGGEST TREND BETWEEN THE 12Z AND 00Z RUNS IS THAT THE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES ITS WESTWARD TREND.

HEAVY PRECIP SWATH OVER NJ AND EASTERN PA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD AND IMPACT WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS. BECAUSE OF THIS
UPSTREAM TREND...HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE ALL OF THE PIONEER VALLEY. ANY PRECIP THAT IS OR WILL FALL
WILL BE SNOW ACROSS THE EAST SLOPE OF THE BERKS AS MESONET SITES ARE
ALREADY REPORTING TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS TREND IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP
GUIDANCE.

ASIDE FROM THE EXPANSION...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME. HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS OF EITHER SNOW...OR A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS CENTRAL MASS AND INTO CT. THIS IS ALSO IN LINE WITH THE
LATEST DUAL-POL DATA. HIGHER REFLECTIVITY ECHOES ARE STARTING TO
MOVE INTO WINDHAM COUNTY...WHICH WILL BE EITHER A MIX OR JUST SNOW
AS 925 MB TEMPS ARE ALREADY BELOW 32F PER SPC MESO DATA. ANTICIPATE
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO BE FAIRLY BUSY WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX
TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND SURFACE LOW NEARS.

P-TYPE AND CHANGE OVER TIMING...

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS COASTAL
LOW MOVES ALONG STALLED COLD FRONT. AS MENTIONED EARLIER THE PRECIP
SHIED HAS EXPANDED FARTHER WESTWARD THEN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...WHICH
IS THE LATEST TREND IN ALL OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE 06Z NAM.
CHANGE OVER HAS ALREADY STARTED TO OCCUR ACROSS SEVERAL LOCATIONS
AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STILL
CONCERNED ABOUT THE MORNING COMMUTE FOR MANY AREAS WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR WHERE HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE FALLING. ANTICIPATE THE CHANGE
OVER TO MAKE IT TO SOUTHEASTERN MASS INCLUDING BOS AND PVD CLOSER TO
THE 6-8 AM HOUR. THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER AS CAA
WILL TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO REACH THEM. FEEL IT WILL BE CLOSER TO
10AM-NOON. ALTHOUGH SLEET MAY MIX IN DURING THE TRANSITION...BELIEVE
MANY LOCATIONS WILL SWITCH FROM RAIN TO STRAIGHT SNOW.

QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...

HAVE ADJUSTED THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SOME OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
GENERALLY BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WARNING WILL GET AT
LEAST A SLOPPY 5-7 INCHES OF SNOW. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HILLS WITHIN
TOLLAND...WINDHAM...WORCESTER AND PROVIDENCE COUNTIES. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT FOR QPF. THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS AND THERMAL PROFILES. BELIEVE WE HAVE A GOOD TREND GOING
AT THIS TIME. SOME AREAS IN QUESTION WHICH COULD BE UPGRADED WITHIN
THE WARNING IS SOUTHERN BRISTOL AND PLYMOUTH COUNTIES. HOWEVER THESE
LOCATIONS MAY BE STUCK IN THE MIX LONGER KEEPING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
LOW. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE EAST SLOPE OF THE BERK TO AN
ADV AS SNOW IS ALREADY STARTING TO FALL PER WEBCAMS. THE PIONEER AND
CONNECTICUT VALLEY MAY SEE LOWER AMOUNTS AS WELL THANKS TO
SHADOWING. SO EVEN THOUGH SNOW AMOUNTS ARE OUT...THERE STILL COULD
BE SOME CHANGES THANKS TO SOME MESOSCALE ISSUES.

IMPACTS...

DUE TO THE FACT THAT SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LOW WITH THIS STORM...AND
BANDING WITH 1+ INCH/HR RATES ARE POSSIBLE...HEAVY WET SNOW MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES. THIS WILL BE EXACERBATED BY A LLJ AROUND
40 KT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN SOME OF IT/S MOMENTUM.
THEREFORE...THE COMBINATION OF WIND GUSTS 30-40 MPH AND HEAVY WET
SNOW MAY INCREASE THE RISK.

THE OTHER PRIMARY IMPACT IS THAT THE CHANGE-OVER AND HEAVIEST
PRECIP/SNOW WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THE PEAK HOURS OF THE AM
COMMUTE...WITH LOCALIZED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /2 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE MORE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM IN RELATION TO PREVIOUS
PROGS SUGGEST A SLOWER END. ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE
DRYING THE LOW LEVELS...SO THERE COULD BE A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW
LEFTOVER MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN MA BEFORE THINGS END BY
EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY DROP OFF DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS MAY CAUSE ANY UNTREATED ROADS TO BE SLIPPERY
FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

LONGWAVE SCALE CONTINUES TO SHOW BUILDING RIDGE IN THE WEST AND
DIGGING TROUGH IN THE EAST...POINTING TO WARM TREND WEST AND COOLING
EAST. SMALLER SCALE CONTINUES TO SHOW A THREE-RING CIRCUS OF
SHORTWAVES EITHER AFFECTING OR WITH POTENTIAL TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE WITH TWO
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY
WHERE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVES COULD OCCUR.

MODEL MASS FIELDS ARE SIMILAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS ALSO AGREE
ON TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS...ONE WELL OFFSHORE MONDAY AND A SECOND CLOSE
TO SHORE TUESDAY. BUT ALL SHOW DIFFERING SCENARIOS FOR HOW THESE
SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BEST CONFIDENCE IN
HANDLING THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEMS IS WITH THE GEFS /ENSEMBLES/

THE DAILIES...

TONIGHT-SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COASTAL LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH NOVA SCOTIA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN USA.  EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES. CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WIND OVER FRESH SNOW COVER
MAY LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS TONIGHT THAN INDICATED BY GUIDANCE. WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT...WE BUMPED
GUIDANCE DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES.  ON SATURDAY WITH WINDS ALOFT
SHIFTING SOUTHWEST...THE MIXED LAYER SHOULD REACH AROUND 950 MB.
TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S.

SUNDAY...MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
CROSS THE NORTHEAST USA. THE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY WHILE THE ECMWF SEEMS TO LOSE THE FRONT
IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIMITED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS SUGGEST JUST
A FEW CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM QUEBEC
INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER
40S. THE COLDER AIR ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING MIN TEMPS
ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...GENERATES A
SURFACE LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST USA COAST. THIS COASTAL LOW THEN MOVES
NORTHEAST AND PASSES WELL OFFSHORE OF OUR AREA. NORMALLY THIS PATH
WOULD KEEP PCPN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER WITH THE HIGH TO THE NORTH WE
COULD DEVELOP SUFFICIENT MARINE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE TO BRING
CLOUDS AND PCPN MONDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW...BUT WITH POTENTIAL RAIN/SNOW
MIX NEAR THE COAST.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ASHORE FROM THE PACIFIC TONIGHT AND CROSSES
TO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS DIGS AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE MIDWEST AND LEADS TO COASTAL LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW THEN MOVES UP
THE COAST TUESDAY AND PASSES OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND. EACH MODEL
HANDLES THIS COASTAL LOW DIFFERENTLY...SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
SOLUTION IS LOW. CONFIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES FEET-DRY ON THE PACIFIC COAST.

BEST DYNAMICS UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET
MOVES OFF TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...SO BEST CHANCE
OF PCPN SHOULD BE ON TUESDAY THEN DIMINISH TO SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. PTYPE AGAIN FAVORS SNOW INLAND AND SNOW OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG THE COAST.

UPPER TROUGH/COLD POOL FROM THE MIDWEST LINGERS OVER THE NORTHEAST
USA THROUGH THURSDAY MAINTAINING SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...TIMING MAY BE OFF A BIT.
AREAS OF LIFR/IFR IN HEAVY SNOW AND LOW CIGS CONTINUE THROUGH
ABOUT 20Z EVERYWHERE...THEN GIVE WAY TO VFR FROM W-E THROUGH 00Z.
STRONG N WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT OVER THE INTERIOR AND 30-40 KT
ALONG THE CAPE/ISLAND.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. ANY UNTREATED AND WET RUNWAYS WILL FREEZE AS
TEMPERATURES DROP RAPIDLY. WIND GUSTS REMAIN N-NW BUT DIMINISH
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TOMORROW...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW...BUT SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10 KT
OR LESS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...TIMING MAY BE OFF A
BIT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS....TIMING MAY BE OFF A
BIT.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW OR
RAIN/SNOW MIX. NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 20-30 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY... NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS PICK UP THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KT ALONG THE SOUTHERN WATERS...AND 35-45
KT ON THE EASTERN WATERS. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. SEAS BECOME HIGH...MAINLY 8-10 FT ON THE SE OCEAN
WATERS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN/FOG ACROSS THE WATERS
WITH A POSSIBLE CHANGE TO SNOW NEAR THE EASTERN SHORELINES.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...

TONIGHT...DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 30 KNOTS EARLY AND
POPPING UNDER 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS AS HIGH AS 14 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT TO 5-7 FEET BY MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR MOST WATERS DURING THE
NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY BELOW 25 KNOTS BUT
GUSTING NEAR 25 KNOTS EAST OF CAPE ANN SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS
DIMINISH SATURDAY BUT THEN RETURN TO NEAR 5 FEET EAST OF CAPE ANN
SATURDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY BUT WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...NORTH WINDS TURN NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO AT LEAST
NEAR 30 KNOTS EACH DAY. DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL BEHAVIOR OF THE
TWO COASTAL LOW PRESSURE AREAS PASSING BY...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
WINDS TO REACH 35-40 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR GALES AT
THIS TIME...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE. WINDS TURN BACK TO NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ019>021.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ004>007-009-011>018-026.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ002-003-008-010.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ022>024.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ022.
RI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ007.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     RIZ001>006.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DOODY
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 051731
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1231 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT STALLING OFFSHORE WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LOW PRESSURE
TO TRAVEL ALONG AFTER SUNRISE. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL DELIVER A
MIX OF RAIN CHANGING TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A WEAK
COLD FRONT SUNDAY MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS. A COMPLEX COASTAL STORM
SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
1 PM UPDATE...
CONTINUE TO REVISE SNOW MAP AS STRONG BANDING CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS BOTH ERN MA AND WESTERN/CENTRAL MA AT THIS TIME. HAVE
REPORTS ALREADY EXCEEDING 8 INCHES IN SEVERAL SPOTS AS A RESULT OF
THESE BANDS. RATIOS USED LIKELY TOO LOW IS PART OF THE ISSUE AS
THE FEW REPORTS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENTS ARE ON TARGET WITH QPF.
OTHERWISE...TIMING STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR ENDING LATER TODAY/THIS
AFTERNOON.

HAVE ADDED ADVISORIES FOR CAPE/VINEYARD AND ALSO HOISTED WIND
ADVISORIES THERE AS WELL AS STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS THE LOW
PRES MAKES IT/S CLOSEST PASS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

*** WESTWARD TREND IN THE SYSTEM HAS ALLOWED FOR WARNINGS AND
  ADVISORIES TO BE EXPANDED ***

BUSY NIGHT AS WE CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE LATEST DATA AND TRENDS FOR
THIS UPCOMING WINTER SYSTEM. PRECIP SHIELD CONTINUES TO MOVE
WESTWARD AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH STRENGTHENS. GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
POOL INTO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR PWATS TO BE CLOSE TO AN INCH.
BIGGEST TREND BETWEEN THE 12Z AND 00Z RUNS IS THAT THE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES ITS WESTWARD TREND.

HEAVY PRECIP SWATH OVER NJ AND EASTERN PA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD AND IMPACT WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS. BECAUSE OF THIS
UPSTREAM TREND...HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE ALL OF THE PIONEER VALLEY. ANY PRECIP THAT IS OR WILL FALL
WILL BE SNOW ACROSS THE EAST SLOPE OF THE BERKS AS MESONET SITES ARE
ALREADY REPORTING TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS TREND IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP
GUIDANCE.

ASIDE FROM THE EXPANSION...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME. HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS OF EITHER SNOW...OR A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS CENTRAL MASS AND INTO CT. THIS IS ALSO IN LINE WITH THE
LATEST DUAL-POL DATA. HIGHER REFLECTIVITY ECHOES ARE STARTING TO
MOVE INTO WINDHAM COUNTY...WHICH WILL BE EITHER A MIX OR JUST SNOW
AS 925 MB TEMPS ARE ALREADY BELOW 32F PER SPC MESO DATA. ANTICIPATE
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO BE FAIRLY BUSY WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX
TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND SURFACE LOW NEARS.

P-TYPE AND CHANGE OVER TIMING...

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS COASTAL
LOW MOVES ALONG STALLED COLD FRONT. AS MENTIONED EARLIER THE PRECIP
SHIED HAS EXPANDED FARTHER WESTWARD THEN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...WHICH
IS THE LATEST TREND IN ALL OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE 06Z NAM.
CHANGE OVER HAS ALREADY STARTED TO OCCUR ACROSS SEVERAL LOCATIONS
AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STILL
CONCERNED ABOUT THE MORNING COMMUTE FOR MANY AREAS WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR WHERE HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE FALLING. ANTICIPATE THE CHANGE
OVER TO MAKE IT TO SOUTHEASTERN MASS INCLUDING BOS AND PVD CLOSER TO
THE 6-8 AM HOUR. THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER AS CAA
WILL TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO REACH THEM. FEEL IT WILL BE CLOSER TO
10AM-NOON. ALTHOUGH SLEET MAY MIX IN DURING THE TRANSITION...BELIEVE
MANY LOCATIONS WILL SWITCH FROM RAIN TO STRAIGHT SNOW.

QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...

HAVE ADJUSTED THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SOME OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
GENERALLY BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WARNING WILL GET AT
LEAST A SLOPPY 5-7 INCHES OF SNOW. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HILLS WITHIN
TOLLAND...WINDHAM...WORCESTER AND PROVIDENCE COUNTIES. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT FOR QPF. THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS AND THERMAL PROFILES. BELIEVE WE HAVE A GOOD TREND GOING
AT THIS TIME. SOME AREAS IN QUESTION WHICH COULD BE UPGRADED WITHIN
THE WARNING IS SOUTHERN BRISTOL AND PLYMOUTH COUNTIES. HOWEVER THESE
LOCATIONS MAY BE STUCK IN THE MIX LONGER KEEPING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
LOW. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE EAST SLOPE OF THE BERK TO AN
ADV AS SNOW IS ALREADY STARTING TO FALL PER WEBCAMS. THE PIONEER AND
CONNECTICUT VALLEY MAY SEE LOWER AMOUNTS AS WELL THANKS TO
SHADOWING. SO EVEN THOUGH SNOW AMOUNTS ARE OUT...THERE STILL COULD
BE SOME CHANGES THANKS TO SOME MESOSCALE ISSUES.

IMPACTS...

DUE TO THE FACT THAT SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LOW WITH THIS STORM...AND
BANDING WITH 1+ INCH/HR RATES ARE POSSIBLE...HEAVY WET SNOW MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES. THIS WILL BE EXACERBATED BY A LLJ AROUND
40 KT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN SOME OF IT/S MOMENTUM.
THEREFORE...THE COMBINATION OF WIND GUSTS 30-40 MPH AND HEAVY WET
SNOW MAY INCREASE THE RISK.

THE OTHER PRIMARY IMPACT IS THAT THE CHANGE-OVER AND HEAVIEST
PRECIP/SNOW WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THE PEAK HOURS OF THE AM
COMMUTE...WITH LOCALIZED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /2 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE MORE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM IN RELATION TO PREVIOUS
PROGS SUGGEST A SLOWER END. ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE
DRYING THE LOW LEVELS...SO THERE COULD BE A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW
LEFTOVER MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN MA BEFORE THINGS END BY
EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY DROP OFF DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS MAY CAUSE ANY UNTREATED ROADS TO BE SLIPPERY
FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

LONGWAVE SCALE CONTINUES TO SHOW BUILDING RIDGE IN THE WEST AND
DIGGING TROUGH IN THE EAST...POINTING TO WARM TREND WEST AND COOLING
EAST. SMALLER SCALE CONTINUES TO SHOW A THREE-RING CIRCUS OF
SHORTWAVES EITHER AFFECTING OR WITH POTENTIAL TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE WITH TWO
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY
WHERE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVES COULD OCCUR.

MODEL MASS FIELDS ARE SIMILAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS ALSO AGREE
ON TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS...ONE WELL OFFSHORE MONDAY AND A SECOND CLOSE
TO SHORE TUESDAY. BUT ALL SHOW DIFFERING SCENARIOS FOR HOW THESE
SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BEST CONFIDENCE IN
HANDLING THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEMS IS WITH THE GEFS /ENSEMBLES/

THE DAILIES...

TONIGHT-SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COASTAL LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH NOVA SCOTIA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN USA.  EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES. CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WIND OVER FRESH SNOW COVER
MAY LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS TONIGHT THAN INDICATED BY GUIDANCE. WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT...WE BUMPED
GUIDANCE DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES.  ON SATURDAY WITH WINDS ALOFT
SHIFTING SOUTHWEST...THE MIXED LAYER SHOULD REACH AROUND 950 MB.
TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S.

SUNDAY...MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
CROSS THE NORTHEAST USA. THE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY WHILE THE ECMWF SEEMS TO LOSE THE FRONT
IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIMITED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS SUGGEST JUST
A FEW CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM QUEBEC
INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER
40S. THE COLDER AIR ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING MIN TEMPS
ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...GENERATES A
SURFACE LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST USA COAST. THIS COASTAL LOW THEN MOVES
NORTHEAST AND PASSES WELL OFFSHORE OF OUR AREA. NORMALLY THIS PATH
WOULD KEEP PCPN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER WITH THE HIGH TO THE NORTH WE
COULD DEVELOP SUFFICIENT MARINE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE TO BRING
CLOUDS AND PCPN MONDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW...BUT WITH POTENTIAL RAIN/SNOW
MIX NEAR THE COAST.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ASHORE FROM THE PACIFIC TONIGHT AND CROSSES
TO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS DIGS AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE MIDWEST AND LEADS TO COASTAL LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW THEN MOVES UP
THE COAST TUESDAY AND PASSES OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND. EACH MODEL
HANDLES THIS COASTAL LOW DIFFERENTLY...SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
SOLUTION IS LOW. CONFIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES FEET-DRY ON THE PACIFIC COAST.

BEST DYNAMICS UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET
MOVES OFF TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...SO BEST CHANCE
OF PCPN SHOULD BE ON TUESDAY THEN DIMINISH TO SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. PTYPE AGAIN FAVORS SNOW INLAND AND SNOW OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG THE COAST.

UPPER TROUGH/COLD POOL FROM THE MIDWEST LINGERS OVER THE NORTHEAST
USA THROUGH THURSDAY MAINTAINING SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...TIMING MAY BE OFF A BIT.
AREAS OF LIFR/IFR IN HEAVY SNOW AND LOW CIGS CONTINUE THROUGH
ABOUT 20Z EVERYWHERE...THEN GIVE WAY TO VFR FROM W-E THROUGH 00Z.
STRONG N WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT OVER THE INTERIOR AND 30-40 KT
ALONG THE CAPE/ISLAND.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. ANY UNTREATED AND WET RUNWAYS WILL FREEZE AS
TEMPERATURES DROP RAPIDLY. WIND GUSTS REMAIN N-NW BUT DIMINISH
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TOMORROW...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW...BUT SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10 KT
OR LESS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...TIMING MAY BE OFF A
BIT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS....TIMING MAY BE OFF A
BIT.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW OR
RAIN/SNOW MIX. NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 20-30 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY... NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS PICK UP THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KT ALONG THE SOUTHERN WATERS...AND 35-45
KT ON THE EASTERN WATERS. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. SEAS BECOME HIGH...MAINLY 8-10 FT ON THE SE OCEAN
WATERS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN/FOG ACROSS THE WATERS
WITH A POSSIBLE CHANGE TO SNOW NEAR THE EASTERN SHORELINES.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...

TONIGHT...DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 30 KNOTS EARLY AND
POPPING UNDER 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS AS HIGH AS 14 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT TO 5-7 FEET BY MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR MOST WATERS DURING THE
NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY BELOW 25 KNOTS BUT
GUSTING NEAR 25 KNOTS EAST OF CAPE ANN SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS
DIMINISH SATURDAY BUT THEN RETURN TO NEAR 5 FEET EAST OF CAPE ANN
SATURDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY BUT WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...NORTH WINDS TURN NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO AT LEAST
NEAR 30 KNOTS EACH DAY. DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL BEHAVIOR OF THE
TWO COASTAL LOW PRESSURE AREAS PASSING BY...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
WINDS TO REACH 35-40 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR GALES AT
THIS TIME...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE. WINDS TURN BACK TO NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ019>021.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ004>007-009-011>018-026.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ002-003-008-010.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ022>024.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ022.
RI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ007.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     RIZ001>006.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DOODY
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 051731
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1231 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT STALLING OFFSHORE WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LOW PRESSURE
TO TRAVEL ALONG AFTER SUNRISE. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL DELIVER A
MIX OF RAIN CHANGING TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A WEAK
COLD FRONT SUNDAY MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS. A COMPLEX COASTAL STORM
SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
1 PM UPDATE...
CONTINUE TO REVISE SNOW MAP AS STRONG BANDING CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS BOTH ERN MA AND WESTERN/CENTRAL MA AT THIS TIME. HAVE
REPORTS ALREADY EXCEEDING 8 INCHES IN SEVERAL SPOTS AS A RESULT OF
THESE BANDS. RATIOS USED LIKELY TOO LOW IS PART OF THE ISSUE AS
THE FEW REPORTS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENTS ARE ON TARGET WITH QPF.
OTHERWISE...TIMING STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR ENDING LATER TODAY/THIS
AFTERNOON.

HAVE ADDED ADVISORIES FOR CAPE/VINEYARD AND ALSO HOISTED WIND
ADVISORIES THERE AS WELL AS STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS THE LOW
PRES MAKES IT/S CLOSEST PASS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

*** WESTWARD TREND IN THE SYSTEM HAS ALLOWED FOR WARNINGS AND
  ADVISORIES TO BE EXPANDED ***

BUSY NIGHT AS WE CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE LATEST DATA AND TRENDS FOR
THIS UPCOMING WINTER SYSTEM. PRECIP SHIELD CONTINUES TO MOVE
WESTWARD AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH STRENGTHENS. GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
POOL INTO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR PWATS TO BE CLOSE TO AN INCH.
BIGGEST TREND BETWEEN THE 12Z AND 00Z RUNS IS THAT THE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES ITS WESTWARD TREND.

HEAVY PRECIP SWATH OVER NJ AND EASTERN PA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD AND IMPACT WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS. BECAUSE OF THIS
UPSTREAM TREND...HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE ALL OF THE PIONEER VALLEY. ANY PRECIP THAT IS OR WILL FALL
WILL BE SNOW ACROSS THE EAST SLOPE OF THE BERKS AS MESONET SITES ARE
ALREADY REPORTING TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS TREND IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP
GUIDANCE.

ASIDE FROM THE EXPANSION...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME. HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS OF EITHER SNOW...OR A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS CENTRAL MASS AND INTO CT. THIS IS ALSO IN LINE WITH THE
LATEST DUAL-POL DATA. HIGHER REFLECTIVITY ECHOES ARE STARTING TO
MOVE INTO WINDHAM COUNTY...WHICH WILL BE EITHER A MIX OR JUST SNOW
AS 925 MB TEMPS ARE ALREADY BELOW 32F PER SPC MESO DATA. ANTICIPATE
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO BE FAIRLY BUSY WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX
TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND SURFACE LOW NEARS.

P-TYPE AND CHANGE OVER TIMING...

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS COASTAL
LOW MOVES ALONG STALLED COLD FRONT. AS MENTIONED EARLIER THE PRECIP
SHIED HAS EXPANDED FARTHER WESTWARD THEN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...WHICH
IS THE LATEST TREND IN ALL OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE 06Z NAM.
CHANGE OVER HAS ALREADY STARTED TO OCCUR ACROSS SEVERAL LOCATIONS
AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STILL
CONCERNED ABOUT THE MORNING COMMUTE FOR MANY AREAS WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR WHERE HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE FALLING. ANTICIPATE THE CHANGE
OVER TO MAKE IT TO SOUTHEASTERN MASS INCLUDING BOS AND PVD CLOSER TO
THE 6-8 AM HOUR. THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER AS CAA
WILL TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO REACH THEM. FEEL IT WILL BE CLOSER TO
10AM-NOON. ALTHOUGH SLEET MAY MIX IN DURING THE TRANSITION...BELIEVE
MANY LOCATIONS WILL SWITCH FROM RAIN TO STRAIGHT SNOW.

QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...

HAVE ADJUSTED THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SOME OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
GENERALLY BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WARNING WILL GET AT
LEAST A SLOPPY 5-7 INCHES OF SNOW. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HILLS WITHIN
TOLLAND...WINDHAM...WORCESTER AND PROVIDENCE COUNTIES. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT FOR QPF. THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS AND THERMAL PROFILES. BELIEVE WE HAVE A GOOD TREND GOING
AT THIS TIME. SOME AREAS IN QUESTION WHICH COULD BE UPGRADED WITHIN
THE WARNING IS SOUTHERN BRISTOL AND PLYMOUTH COUNTIES. HOWEVER THESE
LOCATIONS MAY BE STUCK IN THE MIX LONGER KEEPING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
LOW. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE EAST SLOPE OF THE BERK TO AN
ADV AS SNOW IS ALREADY STARTING TO FALL PER WEBCAMS. THE PIONEER AND
CONNECTICUT VALLEY MAY SEE LOWER AMOUNTS AS WELL THANKS TO
SHADOWING. SO EVEN THOUGH SNOW AMOUNTS ARE OUT...THERE STILL COULD
BE SOME CHANGES THANKS TO SOME MESOSCALE ISSUES.

IMPACTS...

DUE TO THE FACT THAT SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LOW WITH THIS STORM...AND
BANDING WITH 1+ INCH/HR RATES ARE POSSIBLE...HEAVY WET SNOW MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES. THIS WILL BE EXACERBATED BY A LLJ AROUND
40 KT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN SOME OF IT/S MOMENTUM.
THEREFORE...THE COMBINATION OF WIND GUSTS 30-40 MPH AND HEAVY WET
SNOW MAY INCREASE THE RISK.

THE OTHER PRIMARY IMPACT IS THAT THE CHANGE-OVER AND HEAVIEST
PRECIP/SNOW WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THE PEAK HOURS OF THE AM
COMMUTE...WITH LOCALIZED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /2 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE MORE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM IN RELATION TO PREVIOUS
PROGS SUGGEST A SLOWER END. ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE
DRYING THE LOW LEVELS...SO THERE COULD BE A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW
LEFTOVER MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN MA BEFORE THINGS END BY
EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY DROP OFF DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS MAY CAUSE ANY UNTREATED ROADS TO BE SLIPPERY
FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

LONGWAVE SCALE CONTINUES TO SHOW BUILDING RIDGE IN THE WEST AND
DIGGING TROUGH IN THE EAST...POINTING TO WARM TREND WEST AND COOLING
EAST. SMALLER SCALE CONTINUES TO SHOW A THREE-RING CIRCUS OF
SHORTWAVES EITHER AFFECTING OR WITH POTENTIAL TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE WITH TWO
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY
WHERE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVES COULD OCCUR.

MODEL MASS FIELDS ARE SIMILAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS ALSO AGREE
ON TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS...ONE WELL OFFSHORE MONDAY AND A SECOND CLOSE
TO SHORE TUESDAY. BUT ALL SHOW DIFFERING SCENARIOS FOR HOW THESE
SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BEST CONFIDENCE IN
HANDLING THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEMS IS WITH THE GEFS /ENSEMBLES/

THE DAILIES...

TONIGHT-SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COASTAL LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH NOVA SCOTIA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN USA.  EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES. CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WIND OVER FRESH SNOW COVER
MAY LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS TONIGHT THAN INDICATED BY GUIDANCE. WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT...WE BUMPED
GUIDANCE DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES.  ON SATURDAY WITH WINDS ALOFT
SHIFTING SOUTHWEST...THE MIXED LAYER SHOULD REACH AROUND 950 MB.
TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S.

SUNDAY...MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
CROSS THE NORTHEAST USA. THE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY WHILE THE ECMWF SEEMS TO LOSE THE FRONT
IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIMITED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS SUGGEST JUST
A FEW CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM QUEBEC
INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER
40S. THE COLDER AIR ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING MIN TEMPS
ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...GENERATES A
SURFACE LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST USA COAST. THIS COASTAL LOW THEN MOVES
NORTHEAST AND PASSES WELL OFFSHORE OF OUR AREA. NORMALLY THIS PATH
WOULD KEEP PCPN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER WITH THE HIGH TO THE NORTH WE
COULD DEVELOP SUFFICIENT MARINE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE TO BRING
CLOUDS AND PCPN MONDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW...BUT WITH POTENTIAL RAIN/SNOW
MIX NEAR THE COAST.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ASHORE FROM THE PACIFIC TONIGHT AND CROSSES
TO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS DIGS AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE MIDWEST AND LEADS TO COASTAL LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW THEN MOVES UP
THE COAST TUESDAY AND PASSES OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND. EACH MODEL
HANDLES THIS COASTAL LOW DIFFERENTLY...SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
SOLUTION IS LOW. CONFIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES FEET-DRY ON THE PACIFIC COAST.

BEST DYNAMICS UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET
MOVES OFF TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...SO BEST CHANCE
OF PCPN SHOULD BE ON TUESDAY THEN DIMINISH TO SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. PTYPE AGAIN FAVORS SNOW INLAND AND SNOW OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG THE COAST.

UPPER TROUGH/COLD POOL FROM THE MIDWEST LINGERS OVER THE NORTHEAST
USA THROUGH THURSDAY MAINTAINING SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...TIMING MAY BE OFF A BIT.
AREAS OF LIFR/IFR IN HEAVY SNOW AND LOW CIGS CONTINUE THROUGH
ABOUT 20Z EVERYWHERE...THEN GIVE WAY TO VFR FROM W-E THROUGH 00Z.
STRONG N WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT OVER THE INTERIOR AND 30-40 KT
ALONG THE CAPE/ISLAND.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. ANY UNTREATED AND WET RUNWAYS WILL FREEZE AS
TEMPERATURES DROP RAPIDLY. WIND GUSTS REMAIN N-NW BUT DIMINISH
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TOMORROW...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW...BUT SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10 KT
OR LESS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...TIMING MAY BE OFF A
BIT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS....TIMING MAY BE OFF A
BIT.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW OR
RAIN/SNOW MIX. NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 20-30 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY... NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS PICK UP THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KT ALONG THE SOUTHERN WATERS...AND 35-45
KT ON THE EASTERN WATERS. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. SEAS BECOME HIGH...MAINLY 8-10 FT ON THE SE OCEAN
WATERS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN/FOG ACROSS THE WATERS
WITH A POSSIBLE CHANGE TO SNOW NEAR THE EASTERN SHORELINES.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...

TONIGHT...DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 30 KNOTS EARLY AND
POPPING UNDER 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS AS HIGH AS 14 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT TO 5-7 FEET BY MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR MOST WATERS DURING THE
NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY BELOW 25 KNOTS BUT
GUSTING NEAR 25 KNOTS EAST OF CAPE ANN SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS
DIMINISH SATURDAY BUT THEN RETURN TO NEAR 5 FEET EAST OF CAPE ANN
SATURDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY BUT WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...NORTH WINDS TURN NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO AT LEAST
NEAR 30 KNOTS EACH DAY. DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL BEHAVIOR OF THE
TWO COASTAL LOW PRESSURE AREAS PASSING BY...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
WINDS TO REACH 35-40 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR GALES AT
THIS TIME...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE. WINDS TURN BACK TO NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ019>021.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ004>007-009-011>018-026.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ002-003-008-010.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ022>024.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ022.
RI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ007.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     RIZ001>006.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DOODY
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 051731
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1231 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT STALLING OFFSHORE WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LOW PRESSURE
TO TRAVEL ALONG AFTER SUNRISE. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL DELIVER A
MIX OF RAIN CHANGING TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A WEAK
COLD FRONT SUNDAY MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS. A COMPLEX COASTAL STORM
SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
1 PM UPDATE...
CONTINUE TO REVISE SNOW MAP AS STRONG BANDING CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS BOTH ERN MA AND WESTERN/CENTRAL MA AT THIS TIME. HAVE
REPORTS ALREADY EXCEEDING 8 INCHES IN SEVERAL SPOTS AS A RESULT OF
THESE BANDS. RATIOS USED LIKELY TOO LOW IS PART OF THE ISSUE AS
THE FEW REPORTS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENTS ARE ON TARGET WITH QPF.
OTHERWISE...TIMING STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR ENDING LATER TODAY/THIS
AFTERNOON.

HAVE ADDED ADVISORIES FOR CAPE/VINEYARD AND ALSO HOISTED WIND
ADVISORIES THERE AS WELL AS STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS THE LOW
PRES MAKES IT/S CLOSEST PASS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

*** WESTWARD TREND IN THE SYSTEM HAS ALLOWED FOR WARNINGS AND
  ADVISORIES TO BE EXPANDED ***

BUSY NIGHT AS WE CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE LATEST DATA AND TRENDS FOR
THIS UPCOMING WINTER SYSTEM. PRECIP SHIELD CONTINUES TO MOVE
WESTWARD AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH STRENGTHENS. GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
POOL INTO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR PWATS TO BE CLOSE TO AN INCH.
BIGGEST TREND BETWEEN THE 12Z AND 00Z RUNS IS THAT THE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES ITS WESTWARD TREND.

HEAVY PRECIP SWATH OVER NJ AND EASTERN PA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD AND IMPACT WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS. BECAUSE OF THIS
UPSTREAM TREND...HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE ALL OF THE PIONEER VALLEY. ANY PRECIP THAT IS OR WILL FALL
WILL BE SNOW ACROSS THE EAST SLOPE OF THE BERKS AS MESONET SITES ARE
ALREADY REPORTING TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS TREND IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP
GUIDANCE.

ASIDE FROM THE EXPANSION...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME. HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS OF EITHER SNOW...OR A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS CENTRAL MASS AND INTO CT. THIS IS ALSO IN LINE WITH THE
LATEST DUAL-POL DATA. HIGHER REFLECTIVITY ECHOES ARE STARTING TO
MOVE INTO WINDHAM COUNTY...WHICH WILL BE EITHER A MIX OR JUST SNOW
AS 925 MB TEMPS ARE ALREADY BELOW 32F PER SPC MESO DATA. ANTICIPATE
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO BE FAIRLY BUSY WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX
TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND SURFACE LOW NEARS.

P-TYPE AND CHANGE OVER TIMING...

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS COASTAL
LOW MOVES ALONG STALLED COLD FRONT. AS MENTIONED EARLIER THE PRECIP
SHIED HAS EXPANDED FARTHER WESTWARD THEN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...WHICH
IS THE LATEST TREND IN ALL OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE 06Z NAM.
CHANGE OVER HAS ALREADY STARTED TO OCCUR ACROSS SEVERAL LOCATIONS
AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STILL
CONCERNED ABOUT THE MORNING COMMUTE FOR MANY AREAS WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR WHERE HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE FALLING. ANTICIPATE THE CHANGE
OVER TO MAKE IT TO SOUTHEASTERN MASS INCLUDING BOS AND PVD CLOSER TO
THE 6-8 AM HOUR. THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER AS CAA
WILL TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO REACH THEM. FEEL IT WILL BE CLOSER TO
10AM-NOON. ALTHOUGH SLEET MAY MIX IN DURING THE TRANSITION...BELIEVE
MANY LOCATIONS WILL SWITCH FROM RAIN TO STRAIGHT SNOW.

QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...

HAVE ADJUSTED THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SOME OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
GENERALLY BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WARNING WILL GET AT
LEAST A SLOPPY 5-7 INCHES OF SNOW. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HILLS WITHIN
TOLLAND...WINDHAM...WORCESTER AND PROVIDENCE COUNTIES. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT FOR QPF. THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS AND THERMAL PROFILES. BELIEVE WE HAVE A GOOD TREND GOING
AT THIS TIME. SOME AREAS IN QUESTION WHICH COULD BE UPGRADED WITHIN
THE WARNING IS SOUTHERN BRISTOL AND PLYMOUTH COUNTIES. HOWEVER THESE
LOCATIONS MAY BE STUCK IN THE MIX LONGER KEEPING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
LOW. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE EAST SLOPE OF THE BERK TO AN
ADV AS SNOW IS ALREADY STARTING TO FALL PER WEBCAMS. THE PIONEER AND
CONNECTICUT VALLEY MAY SEE LOWER AMOUNTS AS WELL THANKS TO
SHADOWING. SO EVEN THOUGH SNOW AMOUNTS ARE OUT...THERE STILL COULD
BE SOME CHANGES THANKS TO SOME MESOSCALE ISSUES.

IMPACTS...

DUE TO THE FACT THAT SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LOW WITH THIS STORM...AND
BANDING WITH 1+ INCH/HR RATES ARE POSSIBLE...HEAVY WET SNOW MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES. THIS WILL BE EXACERBATED BY A LLJ AROUND
40 KT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN SOME OF IT/S MOMENTUM.
THEREFORE...THE COMBINATION OF WIND GUSTS 30-40 MPH AND HEAVY WET
SNOW MAY INCREASE THE RISK.

THE OTHER PRIMARY IMPACT IS THAT THE CHANGE-OVER AND HEAVIEST
PRECIP/SNOW WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THE PEAK HOURS OF THE AM
COMMUTE...WITH LOCALIZED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /2 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE MORE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM IN RELATION TO PREVIOUS
PROGS SUGGEST A SLOWER END. ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE
DRYING THE LOW LEVELS...SO THERE COULD BE A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW
LEFTOVER MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN MA BEFORE THINGS END BY
EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY DROP OFF DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS MAY CAUSE ANY UNTREATED ROADS TO BE SLIPPERY
FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

LONGWAVE SCALE CONTINUES TO SHOW BUILDING RIDGE IN THE WEST AND
DIGGING TROUGH IN THE EAST...POINTING TO WARM TREND WEST AND COOLING
EAST. SMALLER SCALE CONTINUES TO SHOW A THREE-RING CIRCUS OF
SHORTWAVES EITHER AFFECTING OR WITH POTENTIAL TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE WITH TWO
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY
WHERE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVES COULD OCCUR.

MODEL MASS FIELDS ARE SIMILAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS ALSO AGREE
ON TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS...ONE WELL OFFSHORE MONDAY AND A SECOND CLOSE
TO SHORE TUESDAY. BUT ALL SHOW DIFFERING SCENARIOS FOR HOW THESE
SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BEST CONFIDENCE IN
HANDLING THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEMS IS WITH THE GEFS /ENSEMBLES/

THE DAILIES...

TONIGHT-SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COASTAL LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH NOVA SCOTIA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN USA.  EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES. CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WIND OVER FRESH SNOW COVER
MAY LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS TONIGHT THAN INDICATED BY GUIDANCE. WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT...WE BUMPED
GUIDANCE DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES.  ON SATURDAY WITH WINDS ALOFT
SHIFTING SOUTHWEST...THE MIXED LAYER SHOULD REACH AROUND 950 MB.
TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S.

SUNDAY...MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
CROSS THE NORTHEAST USA. THE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY WHILE THE ECMWF SEEMS TO LOSE THE FRONT
IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIMITED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS SUGGEST JUST
A FEW CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM QUEBEC
INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER
40S. THE COLDER AIR ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING MIN TEMPS
ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...GENERATES A
SURFACE LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST USA COAST. THIS COASTAL LOW THEN MOVES
NORTHEAST AND PASSES WELL OFFSHORE OF OUR AREA. NORMALLY THIS PATH
WOULD KEEP PCPN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER WITH THE HIGH TO THE NORTH WE
COULD DEVELOP SUFFICIENT MARINE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE TO BRING
CLOUDS AND PCPN MONDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW...BUT WITH POTENTIAL RAIN/SNOW
MIX NEAR THE COAST.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ASHORE FROM THE PACIFIC TONIGHT AND CROSSES
TO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS DIGS AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE MIDWEST AND LEADS TO COASTAL LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW THEN MOVES UP
THE COAST TUESDAY AND PASSES OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND. EACH MODEL
HANDLES THIS COASTAL LOW DIFFERENTLY...SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
SOLUTION IS LOW. CONFIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES FEET-DRY ON THE PACIFIC COAST.

BEST DYNAMICS UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET
MOVES OFF TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...SO BEST CHANCE
OF PCPN SHOULD BE ON TUESDAY THEN DIMINISH TO SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. PTYPE AGAIN FAVORS SNOW INLAND AND SNOW OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG THE COAST.

UPPER TROUGH/COLD POOL FROM THE MIDWEST LINGERS OVER THE NORTHEAST
USA THROUGH THURSDAY MAINTAINING SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...TIMING MAY BE OFF A BIT.
AREAS OF LIFR/IFR IN HEAVY SNOW AND LOW CIGS CONTINUE THROUGH
ABOUT 20Z EVERYWHERE...THEN GIVE WAY TO VFR FROM W-E THROUGH 00Z.
STRONG N WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT OVER THE INTERIOR AND 30-40 KT
ALONG THE CAPE/ISLAND.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. ANY UNTREATED AND WET RUNWAYS WILL FREEZE AS
TEMPERATURES DROP RAPIDLY. WIND GUSTS REMAIN N-NW BUT DIMINISH
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TOMORROW...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW...BUT SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10 KT
OR LESS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...TIMING MAY BE OFF A
BIT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS....TIMING MAY BE OFF A
BIT.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW OR
RAIN/SNOW MIX. NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 20-30 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY... NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS PICK UP THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KT ALONG THE SOUTHERN WATERS...AND 35-45
KT ON THE EASTERN WATERS. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. SEAS BECOME HIGH...MAINLY 8-10 FT ON THE SE OCEAN
WATERS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN/FOG ACROSS THE WATERS
WITH A POSSIBLE CHANGE TO SNOW NEAR THE EASTERN SHORELINES.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...

TONIGHT...DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 30 KNOTS EARLY AND
POPPING UNDER 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS AS HIGH AS 14 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT TO 5-7 FEET BY MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR MOST WATERS DURING THE
NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY BELOW 25 KNOTS BUT
GUSTING NEAR 25 KNOTS EAST OF CAPE ANN SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS
DIMINISH SATURDAY BUT THEN RETURN TO NEAR 5 FEET EAST OF CAPE ANN
SATURDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY BUT WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...NORTH WINDS TURN NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO AT LEAST
NEAR 30 KNOTS EACH DAY. DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL BEHAVIOR OF THE
TWO COASTAL LOW PRESSURE AREAS PASSING BY...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
WINDS TO REACH 35-40 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR GALES AT
THIS TIME...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE. WINDS TURN BACK TO NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ019>021.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ004>007-009-011>018-026.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ002-003-008-010.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ022>024.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ022.
RI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ007.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     RIZ001>006.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DOODY
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 051731
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1231 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT STALLING OFFSHORE WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LOW PRESSURE
TO TRAVEL ALONG AFTER SUNRISE. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL DELIVER A
MIX OF RAIN CHANGING TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A WEAK
COLD FRONT SUNDAY MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS. A COMPLEX COASTAL STORM
SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
1 PM UPDATE...
CONTINUE TO REVISE SNOW MAP AS STRONG BANDING CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS BOTH ERN MA AND WESTERN/CENTRAL MA AT THIS TIME. HAVE
REPORTS ALREADY EXCEEDING 8 INCHES IN SEVERAL SPOTS AS A RESULT OF
THESE BANDS. RATIOS USED LIKELY TOO LOW IS PART OF THE ISSUE AS
THE FEW REPORTS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENTS ARE ON TARGET WITH QPF.
OTHERWISE...TIMING STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR ENDING LATER TODAY/THIS
AFTERNOON.

HAVE ADDED ADVISORIES FOR CAPE/VINEYARD AND ALSO HOISTED WIND
ADVISORIES THERE AS WELL AS STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS THE LOW
PRES MAKES IT/S CLOSEST PASS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

*** WESTWARD TREND IN THE SYSTEM HAS ALLOWED FOR WARNINGS AND
  ADVISORIES TO BE EXPANDED ***

BUSY NIGHT AS WE CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE LATEST DATA AND TRENDS FOR
THIS UPCOMING WINTER SYSTEM. PRECIP SHIELD CONTINUES TO MOVE
WESTWARD AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH STRENGTHENS. GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
POOL INTO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR PWATS TO BE CLOSE TO AN INCH.
BIGGEST TREND BETWEEN THE 12Z AND 00Z RUNS IS THAT THE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES ITS WESTWARD TREND.

HEAVY PRECIP SWATH OVER NJ AND EASTERN PA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD AND IMPACT WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS. BECAUSE OF THIS
UPSTREAM TREND...HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE ALL OF THE PIONEER VALLEY. ANY PRECIP THAT IS OR WILL FALL
WILL BE SNOW ACROSS THE EAST SLOPE OF THE BERKS AS MESONET SITES ARE
ALREADY REPORTING TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS TREND IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP
GUIDANCE.

ASIDE FROM THE EXPANSION...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME. HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS OF EITHER SNOW...OR A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS CENTRAL MASS AND INTO CT. THIS IS ALSO IN LINE WITH THE
LATEST DUAL-POL DATA. HIGHER REFLECTIVITY ECHOES ARE STARTING TO
MOVE INTO WINDHAM COUNTY...WHICH WILL BE EITHER A MIX OR JUST SNOW
AS 925 MB TEMPS ARE ALREADY BELOW 32F PER SPC MESO DATA. ANTICIPATE
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO BE FAIRLY BUSY WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX
TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND SURFACE LOW NEARS.

P-TYPE AND CHANGE OVER TIMING...

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS COASTAL
LOW MOVES ALONG STALLED COLD FRONT. AS MENTIONED EARLIER THE PRECIP
SHIED HAS EXPANDED FARTHER WESTWARD THEN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...WHICH
IS THE LATEST TREND IN ALL OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE 06Z NAM.
CHANGE OVER HAS ALREADY STARTED TO OCCUR ACROSS SEVERAL LOCATIONS
AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STILL
CONCERNED ABOUT THE MORNING COMMUTE FOR MANY AREAS WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR WHERE HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE FALLING. ANTICIPATE THE CHANGE
OVER TO MAKE IT TO SOUTHEASTERN MASS INCLUDING BOS AND PVD CLOSER TO
THE 6-8 AM HOUR. THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER AS CAA
WILL TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO REACH THEM. FEEL IT WILL BE CLOSER TO
10AM-NOON. ALTHOUGH SLEET MAY MIX IN DURING THE TRANSITION...BELIEVE
MANY LOCATIONS WILL SWITCH FROM RAIN TO STRAIGHT SNOW.

QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...

HAVE ADJUSTED THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SOME OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
GENERALLY BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WARNING WILL GET AT
LEAST A SLOPPY 5-7 INCHES OF SNOW. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HILLS WITHIN
TOLLAND...WINDHAM...WORCESTER AND PROVIDENCE COUNTIES. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT FOR QPF. THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS AND THERMAL PROFILES. BELIEVE WE HAVE A GOOD TREND GOING
AT THIS TIME. SOME AREAS IN QUESTION WHICH COULD BE UPGRADED WITHIN
THE WARNING IS SOUTHERN BRISTOL AND PLYMOUTH COUNTIES. HOWEVER THESE
LOCATIONS MAY BE STUCK IN THE MIX LONGER KEEPING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
LOW. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE EAST SLOPE OF THE BERK TO AN
ADV AS SNOW IS ALREADY STARTING TO FALL PER WEBCAMS. THE PIONEER AND
CONNECTICUT VALLEY MAY SEE LOWER AMOUNTS AS WELL THANKS TO
SHADOWING. SO EVEN THOUGH SNOW AMOUNTS ARE OUT...THERE STILL COULD
BE SOME CHANGES THANKS TO SOME MESOSCALE ISSUES.

IMPACTS...

DUE TO THE FACT THAT SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LOW WITH THIS STORM...AND
BANDING WITH 1+ INCH/HR RATES ARE POSSIBLE...HEAVY WET SNOW MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES. THIS WILL BE EXACERBATED BY A LLJ AROUND
40 KT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN SOME OF IT/S MOMENTUM.
THEREFORE...THE COMBINATION OF WIND GUSTS 30-40 MPH AND HEAVY WET
SNOW MAY INCREASE THE RISK.

THE OTHER PRIMARY IMPACT IS THAT THE CHANGE-OVER AND HEAVIEST
PRECIP/SNOW WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THE PEAK HOURS OF THE AM
COMMUTE...WITH LOCALIZED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /2 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE MORE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM IN RELATION TO PREVIOUS
PROGS SUGGEST A SLOWER END. ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE
DRYING THE LOW LEVELS...SO THERE COULD BE A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW
LEFTOVER MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN MA BEFORE THINGS END BY
EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY DROP OFF DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS MAY CAUSE ANY UNTREATED ROADS TO BE SLIPPERY
FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

LONGWAVE SCALE CONTINUES TO SHOW BUILDING RIDGE IN THE WEST AND
DIGGING TROUGH IN THE EAST...POINTING TO WARM TREND WEST AND COOLING
EAST. SMALLER SCALE CONTINUES TO SHOW A THREE-RING CIRCUS OF
SHORTWAVES EITHER AFFECTING OR WITH POTENTIAL TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE WITH TWO
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY
WHERE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVES COULD OCCUR.

MODEL MASS FIELDS ARE SIMILAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS ALSO AGREE
ON TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS...ONE WELL OFFSHORE MONDAY AND A SECOND CLOSE
TO SHORE TUESDAY. BUT ALL SHOW DIFFERING SCENARIOS FOR HOW THESE
SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BEST CONFIDENCE IN
HANDLING THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEMS IS WITH THE GEFS /ENSEMBLES/

THE DAILIES...

TONIGHT-SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COASTAL LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH NOVA SCOTIA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN USA.  EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES. CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WIND OVER FRESH SNOW COVER
MAY LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS TONIGHT THAN INDICATED BY GUIDANCE. WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT...WE BUMPED
GUIDANCE DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES.  ON SATURDAY WITH WINDS ALOFT
SHIFTING SOUTHWEST...THE MIXED LAYER SHOULD REACH AROUND 950 MB.
TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S.

SUNDAY...MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
CROSS THE NORTHEAST USA. THE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY WHILE THE ECMWF SEEMS TO LOSE THE FRONT
IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIMITED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS SUGGEST JUST
A FEW CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM QUEBEC
INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER
40S. THE COLDER AIR ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING MIN TEMPS
ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...GENERATES A
SURFACE LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST USA COAST. THIS COASTAL LOW THEN MOVES
NORTHEAST AND PASSES WELL OFFSHORE OF OUR AREA. NORMALLY THIS PATH
WOULD KEEP PCPN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER WITH THE HIGH TO THE NORTH WE
COULD DEVELOP SUFFICIENT MARINE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE TO BRING
CLOUDS AND PCPN MONDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW...BUT WITH POTENTIAL RAIN/SNOW
MIX NEAR THE COAST.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ASHORE FROM THE PACIFIC TONIGHT AND CROSSES
TO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS DIGS AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE MIDWEST AND LEADS TO COASTAL LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW THEN MOVES UP
THE COAST TUESDAY AND PASSES OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND. EACH MODEL
HANDLES THIS COASTAL LOW DIFFERENTLY...SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
SOLUTION IS LOW. CONFIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES FEET-DRY ON THE PACIFIC COAST.

BEST DYNAMICS UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET
MOVES OFF TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...SO BEST CHANCE
OF PCPN SHOULD BE ON TUESDAY THEN DIMINISH TO SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. PTYPE AGAIN FAVORS SNOW INLAND AND SNOW OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG THE COAST.

UPPER TROUGH/COLD POOL FROM THE MIDWEST LINGERS OVER THE NORTHEAST
USA THROUGH THURSDAY MAINTAINING SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...TIMING MAY BE OFF A BIT.
AREAS OF LIFR/IFR IN HEAVY SNOW AND LOW CIGS CONTINUE THROUGH
ABOUT 20Z EVERYWHERE...THEN GIVE WAY TO VFR FROM W-E THROUGH 00Z.
STRONG N WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT OVER THE INTERIOR AND 30-40 KT
ALONG THE CAPE/ISLAND.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. ANY UNTREATED AND WET RUNWAYS WILL FREEZE AS
TEMPERATURES DROP RAPIDLY. WIND GUSTS REMAIN N-NW BUT DIMINISH
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TOMORROW...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW...BUT SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10 KT
OR LESS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...TIMING MAY BE OFF A
BIT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS....TIMING MAY BE OFF A
BIT.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW OR
RAIN/SNOW MIX. NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 20-30 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY... NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS PICK UP THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KT ALONG THE SOUTHERN WATERS...AND 35-45
KT ON THE EASTERN WATERS. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. SEAS BECOME HIGH...MAINLY 8-10 FT ON THE SE OCEAN
WATERS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN/FOG ACROSS THE WATERS
WITH A POSSIBLE CHANGE TO SNOW NEAR THE EASTERN SHORELINES.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...

TONIGHT...DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 30 KNOTS EARLY AND
POPPING UNDER 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS AS HIGH AS 14 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT TO 5-7 FEET BY MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR MOST WATERS DURING THE
NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY BELOW 25 KNOTS BUT
GUSTING NEAR 25 KNOTS EAST OF CAPE ANN SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS
DIMINISH SATURDAY BUT THEN RETURN TO NEAR 5 FEET EAST OF CAPE ANN
SATURDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY BUT WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...NORTH WINDS TURN NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO AT LEAST
NEAR 30 KNOTS EACH DAY. DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL BEHAVIOR OF THE
TWO COASTAL LOW PRESSURE AREAS PASSING BY...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
WINDS TO REACH 35-40 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR GALES AT
THIS TIME...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE. WINDS TURN BACK TO NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ019>021.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ004>007-009-011>018-026.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ002-003-008-010.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MAZ022>024.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ022.
RI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ007.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     RIZ001>006.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DOODY
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 051501
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1001 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT STALLING OFFSHORE WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LOW PRESSURE
TO TRAVEL ALONG AFTER SUNRISE. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL DELIVER A
MIX OF RAIN CHANGING TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A WEAK
COLD FRONT SUNDAY MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS. A COMPLEX COASTAL STORM
SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
10 AM UPDATE...
KBOX CC DATA SHOWS A NEARLY STALLING RAIN/SNOW LINE JUST OVER THE
CC CANAL AT THIS TIME. IF ANYTHING IT/S LIKELY TO PIVOT TO A MORE
S-N ORIENTATION. OTHERWISE SNOW FOR MOST EVERYONE AT THIS POINT
EVEN WITH MARGINAL SFC TEMPS NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING.
RATIOS HAVE BEEN LOW SO FAR EVERYWHERE OUTSIDE OF WRN MA/CT WHERE
THE CHANGEOVER OCCURRED EARLIER AND DWPTS CONTINUE TO DROP.

THE KEY NOW IS TO MONITOR STRONG BANDING OCCURRING THROUGH
CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA/CT CONNECTED TO A BAND AROUND H6-H5 OR
RIGHT WITHIN THE -12C TO -18C GROWTH REGIME. HENCE WE ARE SEEING
1-2 INCH/HOUR RATES IN AN AREA OF 30DBZ. THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE
TO PIVOT SLIGHTLY THEN SLIDE E THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...STILL EXPECT GOOD ACCUMS OVER THE NEXT 3-6
HOURS FOR CENTRAL MA/CT AS WELL AS RI AND ERN MA A BIT LATER. AS
SUCH HAVE UPPED TOTALS ACROSS THE REGION AND NOW FEATURE A BAND OF
8+ INCHES FROM NE CT-NRN RI AND CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN MA. MORE REFINEMENT LIKELY TO COME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

*** WESTWARD TREND IN THE SYSTEM HAS ALLOWED FOR WARNINGS AND
  ADVISORIES TO BE EXPANDED ***

BUSY NIGHT AS WE CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE LATEST DATA AND TRENDS FOR
THIS UPCOMING WINTER SYSTEM. PRECIP SHIELD CONTINUES TO MOVE
WESTWARD AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH STRENGTHENS. GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
POOL INTO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR PWATS TO BE CLOSE TO AN INCH.
BIGGEST TREND BETWEEN THE 12Z AND 00Z RUNS IS THAT THE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES ITS WESTWARD TREND.

HEAVY PRECIP SWATH OVER NJ AND EASTERN PA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD AND IMPACT WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS. BECAUSE OF THIS
UPSTREAM TREND...HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE ALL OF THE PIONEER VALLEY. ANY PRECIP THAT IS OR WILL FALL
WILL BE SNOW ACROSS THE EAST SLOPE OF THE BERKS AS MESONET SITES ARE
ALREADY REPORTING TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS TREND IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP
GUIDANCE.

ASIDE FROM THE EXPANSION...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME. HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS OF EITHER SNOW...OR A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS CENTRAL MASS AND INTO CT. THIS IS ALSO IN LINE WITH THE
LATEST DUAL-POL DATA. HIGHER REFLECTIVITY ECHOES ARE STARTING TO
MOVE INTO WINDHAM COUNTY...WHICH WILL BE EITHER A MIX OR JUST SNOW
AS 925 MB TEMPS ARE ALREADY BELOW 32F PER SPC MESO DATA. ANTICIPATE
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO BE FAIRLY BUSY WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX
TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND SURFACE LOW NEARS.

P-TYPE AND CHANGE OVER TIMING...

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS COASTAL
LOW MOVES ALONG STALLED COLD FRONT. AS MENTIONED EARLIER THE PRECIP
SHIED HAS EXPANDED FARTHER WESTWARD THEN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...WHICH
IS THE LATEST TREND IN ALL OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE 06Z NAM.
CHANGE OVER HAS ALREADY STARTED TO OCCUR ACROSS SEVERAL LOCATIONS
AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STILL
CONCERNED ABOUT THE MORNING COMMUTE FOR MANY AREAS WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR WHERE HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE FALLING. ANTICIPATE THE CHANGE
OVER TO MAKE IT TO SOUTHEASTERN MASS INCLUDING BOS AND PVD CLOSER TO
THE 6-8 AM HOUR. THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER AS CAA
WILL TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO REACH THEM. FEEL IT WILL BE CLOSER TO
10AM-NOON. ALTHOUGH SLEET MAY MIX IN DURING THE TRANSITION...BELIEVE
MANY LOCATIONS WILL SWITCH FROM RAIN TO STRAIGHT SNOW.

QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...

HAVE ADJUSTED THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SOME OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
GENERALLY BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WARNING WILL GET AT
LEAST A SLOPPY 5-7 INCHES OF SNOW. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HILLS WITHIN
TOLLAND...WINDHAM...WORCESTER AND PROVIDENCE COUNTIES. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT FOR QPF. THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS AND THERMAL PROFILES. BELIEVE WE HAVE A GOOD TREND GOING
AT THIS TIME. SOME AREAS IN QUESTION WHICH COULD BE UPGRADED WITHIN
THE WARNING IS SOUTHERN BRISTOL AND PLYMOUTH COUNTIES. HOWEVER THESE
LOCATIONS MAY BE STUCK IN THE MIX LONGER KEEPING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
LOW. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE EAST SLOPE OF THE BERK TO AN
ADV AS SNOW IS ALREADY STARTING TO FALL PER WEBCAMS. THE PIONEER AND
CONNECTICUT VALLEY MAY SEE LOWER AMOUNTS AS WELL THANKS TO
SHADOWING. SO EVEN THOUGH SNOW AMOUNTS ARE OUT...THERE STILL COULD
BE SOME CHANGES THANKS TO SOME MESOSCALE ISSUES.

IMPACTS...

DUE TO THE FACT THAT SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LOW WITH THIS STORM...AND
BANDING WITH 1+ INCH/HR RATES ARE POSSIBLE...HEAVY WET SNOW MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES. THIS WILL BE EXACERBATED BY A LLJ AROUND
40 KT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN SOME OF IT/S MOMENTUM.
THEREFORE...THE COMBINATION OF WIND GUSTS 30-40 MPH AND HEAVY WET
SNOW MAY INCREASE THE RISK.

THE OTHER PRIMARY IMPACT IS THAT THE CHANGE-OVER AND HEAVIEST
PRECIP/SNOW WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THE PEAK HOURS OF THE AM
COMMUTE...WITH LOCALIZED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /2 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE MORE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM IN RELATION TO PREVIOUS
PROGS SUGGEST A SLOWER END. ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE
DRYING THE LOW LEVELS...SO THERE COULD BE A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW
LEFTOVER MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN MA BEFORE THINGS END BY
EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY DROP OFF DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS MAY CAUSE ANY UNTREATED ROADS TO BE SLIPPERY
FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

LONGWAVE SCALE CONTINUES TO SHOW BUILDING RIDGE IN THE WEST AND
DIGGING TROUGH IN THE EAST...POINTING TO WARM TREND WEST AND COOLING
EAST. SMALLER SCALE CONTINUES TO SHOW A THREE-RING CIRCUS OF
SHORTWAVES EITHER AFFECTING OR WITH POTENTIAL TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE WITH TWO
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY
WHERE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVES COULD OCCUR.

MODEL MASS FIELDS ARE SIMILAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS ALSO AGREE
ON TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS...ONE WELL OFFSHORE MONDAY AND A SECOND CLOSE
TO SHORE TUESDAY. BUT ALL SHOW DIFFERING SCENARIOS FOR HOW THESE
SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BEST CONFIDENCE IN
HANDLING THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEMS IS WITH THE GEFS /ENSEMBLES/

THE DAILIES...

TONIGHT-SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COASTAL LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH NOVA SCOTIA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN USA.  EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES. CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WIND OVER FRESH SNOW COVER
MAY LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS TONIGHT THAN INDICATED BY GUIDANCE. WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT...WE BUMPED
GUIDANCE DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES.  ON SATURDAY WITH WINDS ALOFT
SHIFTING SOUTHWEST...THE MIXED LAYER SHOULD REACH AROUND 950 MB.
TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S.

SUNDAY...MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
CROSS THE NORTHEAST USA. THE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY WHILE THE ECMWF SEEMS TO LOSE THE FRONT
IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIMITED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS SUGGEST JUST
A FEW CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM QUEBEC
INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER
40S. THE COLDER AIR ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING MIN TEMPS
ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...GENERATES A
SURFACE LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST USA COAST. THIS COASTAL LOW THEN MOVES
NORTHEAST AND PASSES WELL OFFSHORE OF OUR AREA. NORMALLY THIS PATH
WOULD KEEP PCPN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER WITH THE HIGH TO THE NORTH WE
COULD DEVELOP SUFFICIENT MARINE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE TO BRING
CLOUDS AND PCPN MONDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW...BUT WITH POTENTIAL RAIN/SNOW
MIX NEAR THE COAST.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ASHORE FROM THE PACIFIC TONIGHT AND CROSSES
TO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS DIGS AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE MIDWEST AND LEADS TO COASTAL LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW THEN MOVES UP
THE COAST TUESDAY AND PASSES OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND. EACH MODEL
HANDLES THIS COASTAL LOW DIFFERENTLY...SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
SOLUTION IS LOW. CONFIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES FEET-DRY ON THE PACIFIC COAST.

BEST DYNAMICS UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET
MOVES OFF TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...SO BEST CHANCE
OF PCPN SHOULD BE ON TUESDAY THEN DIMINISH TO SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. PTYPE AGAIN FAVORS SNOW INLAND AND SNOW OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG THE COAST.

UPPER TROUGH/COLD POOL FROM THE MIDWEST LINGERS OVER THE NORTHEAST
USA THROUGH THURSDAY MAINTAINING SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH 18Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST
OF THE TERMINALS. THE CHANGE OVER LINE IS PUSHING THROUGH UUU AND
PYM. THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS SWITCHING ALL PRECIP TO SNOW. ANTICIPATE SNOW ACCUMS ON
THE RUNWAYS ESP ORH...BOS AND PVD. GUSTY WINDS AROUND 20-30 KTS
WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP AFTER 15Z.

AFTER 18Z TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SNOWS/RAIN COME TO AN END AND VERY QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW OR
RAIN/SNOW MIX. NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 20-30 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY... NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS PICK UP THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KT ALONG THE SOUTHERN WATERS...AND 35-45
KT ON THE EASTERN WATERS. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. SEAS BECOME HIGH...MAINLY 8-10 FT ON THE SE OCEAN
WATERS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN/FOG ACROSS THE WATERS
WITH A POSSIBLE CHANGE TO SNOW NEAR THE EASTERN SHORELINES.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...

TONIGHT...DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 30 KNOTS EARLY AND
POPPING UNDER 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS AS HIGH AS 14 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT TO 5-7 FEET BY MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR MOST WATERS DURING THE
NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY BELOW 25 KNOTS BUT
GUSTING NEAR 25 KNOTS EAST OF CAPE ANN SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS
DIMINISH SATURDAY BUT THEN RETURN TO NEAR 5 FEET EAST OF CAPE ANN
SATURDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY BUT WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...NORTH WINDS TURN NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO AT LEAST
NEAR 30 KNOTS EACH DAY. DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL BEHAVIOR OF THE
TWO COASTAL LOW PRESSURE AREAS PASSING BY...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
WINDS TO REACH 35-40 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR GALES AT
THIS TIME...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE. WINDS TURN BACK TO NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ003-
     004.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CTZ002.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ019>022.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ004>007-012>018-026.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ002-003-008>011.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     RIZ007.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     RIZ001>006.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 051128
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
628 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT STALLING OFFSHORE WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LOW PRESSURE
TO TRAVEL ALONG AFTER SUNRISE. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL DELIVER A
MIX OF RAIN CHANGING TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A WEAK
COLD FRONT SUNDAY MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS. A COMPLEX COASTAL STORM
SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...

630 AM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

DUAL-POL RADAR DATA SHOWS THE CHANGE OVER LINE SLOWLY MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN RI AND INTO PLYMOUTH MASS. THIS LINE WILL SLOWLY
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

ALREADY RECEIVING A FEW 1 INCH REPORTS WHICH LINES UP WITH THE
ONGOING FORECAST. THESE AMOUNTS ARE LOCATED ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN WORCESTER AND TOLLAND COUNTY. BELIEVE THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS.

ALREADY NOTICING SOME BANDING DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN
MASS...CENTRAL MASS. THIS LINES UP WITH THE STRONG OMEGA LIFT
WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. COULD SEE VSBYS REDUCED QUICKLY
WITHIN THESE BANDS AND A QUICK INCH OR TWO WITHIN THESE BANDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

*** WESTWARD TREND IN THE SYSTEM HAS ALLOWED FOR WARNINGS AND
  ADVISORIES TO BE EXPANDED ***

BUSY NIGHT AS WE CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE LATEST DATA AND TRENDS FOR
THIS UPCOMING WINTER SYSTEM. PRECIP SHIELD CONTINUES TO MOVE
WESTWARD AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH STRENGTHENS. GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
POOL INTO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR PWATS TO BE CLOSE TO AN INCH.
BIGGEST TREND BETWEEN THE 12Z AND 00Z RUNS IS THAT THE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES ITS WESTWARD TREND.

HEAVY PRECIP SWATH OVER NJ AND EASTERN PA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD AND IMPACT WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS. BECAUSE OF THIS
UPSTREAM TREND...HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE ALL OF THE PIONEER VALLEY. ANY PRECIP THAT IS OR WILL FALL
WILL BE SNOW ACROSS THE EAST SLOPE OF THE BERKS AS MESONET SITES ARE
ALREADY REPORTING TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS TREND IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP
GUIDANCE.

ASIDE FROM THE EXPANSION...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME. HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS OF EITHER SNOW...OR A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS CENTRAL MASS AND INTO CT. THIS IS ALSO IN LINE WITH THE
LATEST DUAL-POL DATA. HIGHER REFLECTIVITY ECHOES ARE STARTING TO
MOVE INTO WINDHAM COUNTY...WHICH WILL BE EITHER A MIX OR JUST SNOW
AS 925 MB TEMPS ARE ALREADY BELOW 32F PER SPC MESO DATA. ANTICIPATE
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO BE FAIRLY BUSY WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX
TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND SURFACE LOW NEARS.

P-TYPE AND CHANGE OVER TIMING...

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS COASTAL
LOW MOVES ALONG STALLED COLD FRONT. AS MENTIONED EARLIER THE PRECIP
SHIED HAS EXPANDED FARTHER WESTWARD THEN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...WHICH
IS THE LATEST TREND IN ALL OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE 06Z NAM.
CHANGE OVER HAS ALREADY STARTED TO OCCUR ACROSS SEVERAL LOCATIONS
AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STILL
CONCERNED ABOUT THE MORNING COMMUTE FOR MANY AREAS WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR WHERE HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE FALLING. ANTICIPATE THE CHANGE
OVER TO MAKE IT TO SOUTHEASTERN MASS INCLUDING BOS AND PVD CLOSER TO
THE 6-8 AM HOUR. THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER AS CAA
WILL TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO REACH THEM. FEEL IT WILL BE CLOSER TO
10AM-NOON. ALTHOUGH SLEET MAY MIX IN DURING THE TRANSITION...BELIEVE
MANY LOCATIONS WILL SWITCH FROM RAIN TO STRAIGHT SNOW.

QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...

HAVE ADJUSTED THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SOME OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
GENERALLY BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WARNING WILL GET AT
LEAST A SLOPPY 5-7 INCHES OF SNOW. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HILLS WITHIN
TOLLAND...WINDHAM...WORCESTER AND PROVIDENCE COUNTIES. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT FOR QPF. THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS AND THERMAL PROFILES. BELIEVE WE HAVE A GOOD TREND GOING
AT THIS TIME. SOME AREAS IN QUESTION WHICH COULD BE UPGRADED WITHIN
THE WARNING IS SOUTHERN BRISTOL AND PLYMOUTH COUNTIES. HOWEVER THESE
LOCATIONS MAY BE STUCK IN THE MIX LONGER KEEPING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
LOW. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE EAST SLOPE OF THE BERK TO AN
ADV AS SNOW IS ALREADY STARTING TO FALL PER WEBCAMS. THE PIONEER AND
CONNECTICUT VALLEY MAY SEE LOWER AMOUNTS AS WELL THANKS TO
SHADOWING. SO EVEN THOUGH SNOW AMOUNTS ARE OUT...THERE STILL COULD
BE SOME CHANGES THANKS TO SOME MESOSCALE ISSUES.

IMPACTS...

DUE TO THE FACT THAT SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LOW WITH THIS STORM...AND
BANDING WITH 1+ INCH/HR RATES ARE POSSIBLE...HEAVY WET SNOW MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES. THIS WILL BE EXACERBATED BY A LLJ AROUND
40 KT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN SOME OF IT/S MOMENTUM.
THEREFORE...THE COMBINATION OF WIND GUSTS 30-40 MPH AND HEAVY WET
SNOW MAY INCREASE THE RISK.

THE OTHER PRIMARY IMPACT IS THAT THE CHANGE-OVER AND HEAVIEST
PRECIP/SNOW WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THE PEAK HOURS OF THE AM
COMMUTE...WITH LOCALIZED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /2 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE MORE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM IN RELATION TO PREVIOUS
PROGS SUGGEST A SLOWER END. ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE
DRYING THE LOW LEVELS...SO THERE COULD BE A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW
LEFTOVER MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN MA BEFORE THINGS END BY
EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY DROP OFF DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS MAY CAUSE ANY UNTREATED ROADS TO BE SLIPPERY
FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

LONGWAVE SCALE CONTINUES TO SHOW BUIDLING RIDGE IN THE WEST AND
DIGGING TROUGH IN THE EAST...POINTING TO WARM TREND WEST AND COOLING
EAST. SMALLER SCALE CONTINUES TO SHOW A THREE-RING CIRCUS OF
SHORTWAVES EITHER AFFECTING OR WITH POTENTIAL TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE WITH TWO
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY
WHERE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVES COULD OCCUR.

MODEL MASS FIELDS ARE SIMILAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS ALSO AGREE
ON TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS...ONE WELL OFFSHORE MONDAY AND A SECOND CLOSE
TO SHORE TUESDAY. BUT ALL SHOW DIFFERING SCENARIOS FOR HOW THESE
SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BEST CONFIDENCE IN
HANDLING THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEMS IS WITH THE GEFS /ENSEMBLES/

THE DAILIES...

TONIGHT-SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COASTAL LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH NOVA SCOTIA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN USA.  EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES. CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WIND OVER FRESH SNOW COVER
MAY LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS TONIGHT THAN INDICATED BY GUIDENCE. WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT...WE BUMPED
GUIDENCE DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES.  ON SATURDAY WITH WINDS ALOFT
SHIFTING SOUTHWEST...THE MIXED LAYER SHOULD REACH AROUND 950 MB.
TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S.

SUNDAY...MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
CROSS THE NORTHEAST USA. THE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY WHILE THE ECMWF SEEMS TO LOSE THE FRONT
IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIMITED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS SUGGEST JUST
A FEW CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM QUEBEC
INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER
40S. THE COLDER AIR ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING MIN TEMPS
ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...GENERATES A
SURFACE LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST USA COAST. THIS COASTAL LOW THEN MOVES
NORTHEAST AND PASSES WELL OFFSHORE OF OUR AREA. NORMALLY THIS PATH
WOULD KEEP PCPN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER WITH THE HIGH TO THE NORTH WE
COULD DEVELOP SUFFICIENT MARINE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE TO BRING
CLOUDS AND PCPN MONDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW...BUT WITH POTENTIAL RAIN/SNOW
MIX NEAR THE COAST.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ASHORE FROM THE PACIFIC TONIGHT AND CROSSES
TO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS DIGS AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE MIDWEST AND LEADS TO COASTAL LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW THEN MOVES UP
THE COAST TUESDAY AND PASSES OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND. EACH MODEL
HANDLES THIS COASTAL LOW DIFFERENTLY...SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
SOLUTION IS LOW. CONFIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES FEET-DRY ON THE PACIFIC COAST.

BEST DYNAMICS UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET
MOVES OFF TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...SO BEST CHANCE
OF PCPN SHOULD BE ON TUESDAY THEN DIMINISH TO SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. PTYPE AGAIN FAVORS SNOW INLAND AND SNOW OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG THE COAST.

UPPER TROUGH/COLD POOL FROM THE MIDWEST LINGERS OVER THE NORTHEAST
USA THROUGH THURSDAY MAINTAINING SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

THROUGH 18Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST
OF THE TERMINALS. THE CHANGE OVER LINE IS PUSHING THROUGH UUU AND
PYM. THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS SWITCHING ALL PRECIP TO SNOW. ANTICIPATE SNOW ACCUMS ON
THE RUNWAYS ESP ORH...BOS AND PVD. GUSTY WINDS AROUND 20-30 KTS
WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP AFTER 15Z.

AFTER 18Z TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SNOWS/RAIN COME TO AN END AND VERY QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

OUTLOOK /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW OR
RAIN/SNOW MIX. NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 20-30 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY... NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS PICK UP THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KT ALONG THE SOUTHERN WATERS...AND 35-45
KT ON THE EASTERN WATERS. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. SEAS BECOME HIGH...MAINLY 8-10 FT ON THE SE OCEAN
WATERS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN/FOG ACROSS THE WATERS
WITH A POSSIBLE CHANGE TO SNOW NEAR THE EASTERN SHORELINES.

OUTLOOK /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...

TONIGHT...DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 30 KNOTS EARLY AND
POPPING UNDER 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS AS HIGH AS 14 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT TO 5-7 FEET BY MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR MOST WATERS DURING THE
NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY BELOW 25 KNOTS BUT
GUSTING NEAR 25 KNOTS EAST OF CAPE ANN SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS
DIMINISH SATURDAY BUT THEN RETURN TO NEAR 5 FEET EAST OF CAPE ANN
SATURDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY BUT WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...NORTH WINDS TURN NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO AT LEAST
NEAR 30 KNOTS EACH DAY. DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL BEHAVIOR OF THE
TWO COASTAL LOW PRESSURE AREAS PASSING BY...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
WINDS TO REACH 35-40 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR GALES AT
THIS TIME...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE. WINDS TURN BACK TO NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ003-
     004.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CTZ002.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ019>022.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ004>007-012>018-026.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ002-003-008>011.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     RIZ007.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     RIZ001>006.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 051128
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
628 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT STALLING OFFSHORE WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LOW PRESSURE
TO TRAVEL ALONG AFTER SUNRISE. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL DELIVER A
MIX OF RAIN CHANGING TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A WEAK
COLD FRONT SUNDAY MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS. A COMPLEX COASTAL STORM
SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...

630 AM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

DUAL-POL RADAR DATA SHOWS THE CHANGE OVER LINE SLOWLY MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN RI AND INTO PLYMOUTH MASS. THIS LINE WILL SLOWLY
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

ALREADY RECEIVING A FEW 1 INCH REPORTS WHICH LINES UP WITH THE
ONGOING FORECAST. THESE AMOUNTS ARE LOCATED ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN WORCESTER AND TOLLAND COUNTY. BELIEVE THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS.

ALREADY NOTICING SOME BANDING DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN
MASS...CENTRAL MASS. THIS LINES UP WITH THE STRONG OMEGA LIFT
WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. COULD SEE VSBYS REDUCED QUICKLY
WITHIN THESE BANDS AND A QUICK INCH OR TWO WITHIN THESE BANDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

*** WESTWARD TREND IN THE SYSTEM HAS ALLOWED FOR WARNINGS AND
  ADVISORIES TO BE EXPANDED ***

BUSY NIGHT AS WE CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE LATEST DATA AND TRENDS FOR
THIS UPCOMING WINTER SYSTEM. PRECIP SHIELD CONTINUES TO MOVE
WESTWARD AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH STRENGTHENS. GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
POOL INTO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR PWATS TO BE CLOSE TO AN INCH.
BIGGEST TREND BETWEEN THE 12Z AND 00Z RUNS IS THAT THE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES ITS WESTWARD TREND.

HEAVY PRECIP SWATH OVER NJ AND EASTERN PA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD AND IMPACT WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS. BECAUSE OF THIS
UPSTREAM TREND...HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE ALL OF THE PIONEER VALLEY. ANY PRECIP THAT IS OR WILL FALL
WILL BE SNOW ACROSS THE EAST SLOPE OF THE BERKS AS MESONET SITES ARE
ALREADY REPORTING TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS TREND IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP
GUIDANCE.

ASIDE FROM THE EXPANSION...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME. HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS OF EITHER SNOW...OR A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS CENTRAL MASS AND INTO CT. THIS IS ALSO IN LINE WITH THE
LATEST DUAL-POL DATA. HIGHER REFLECTIVITY ECHOES ARE STARTING TO
MOVE INTO WINDHAM COUNTY...WHICH WILL BE EITHER A MIX OR JUST SNOW
AS 925 MB TEMPS ARE ALREADY BELOW 32F PER SPC MESO DATA. ANTICIPATE
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO BE FAIRLY BUSY WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX
TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND SURFACE LOW NEARS.

P-TYPE AND CHANGE OVER TIMING...

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS COASTAL
LOW MOVES ALONG STALLED COLD FRONT. AS MENTIONED EARLIER THE PRECIP
SHIED HAS EXPANDED FARTHER WESTWARD THEN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...WHICH
IS THE LATEST TREND IN ALL OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE 06Z NAM.
CHANGE OVER HAS ALREADY STARTED TO OCCUR ACROSS SEVERAL LOCATIONS
AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STILL
CONCERNED ABOUT THE MORNING COMMUTE FOR MANY AREAS WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR WHERE HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE FALLING. ANTICIPATE THE CHANGE
OVER TO MAKE IT TO SOUTHEASTERN MASS INCLUDING BOS AND PVD CLOSER TO
THE 6-8 AM HOUR. THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER AS CAA
WILL TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO REACH THEM. FEEL IT WILL BE CLOSER TO
10AM-NOON. ALTHOUGH SLEET MAY MIX IN DURING THE TRANSITION...BELIEVE
MANY LOCATIONS WILL SWITCH FROM RAIN TO STRAIGHT SNOW.

QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...

HAVE ADJUSTED THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SOME OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
GENERALLY BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WARNING WILL GET AT
LEAST A SLOPPY 5-7 INCHES OF SNOW. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HILLS WITHIN
TOLLAND...WINDHAM...WORCESTER AND PROVIDENCE COUNTIES. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT FOR QPF. THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS AND THERMAL PROFILES. BELIEVE WE HAVE A GOOD TREND GOING
AT THIS TIME. SOME AREAS IN QUESTION WHICH COULD BE UPGRADED WITHIN
THE WARNING IS SOUTHERN BRISTOL AND PLYMOUTH COUNTIES. HOWEVER THESE
LOCATIONS MAY BE STUCK IN THE MIX LONGER KEEPING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
LOW. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE EAST SLOPE OF THE BERK TO AN
ADV AS SNOW IS ALREADY STARTING TO FALL PER WEBCAMS. THE PIONEER AND
CONNECTICUT VALLEY MAY SEE LOWER AMOUNTS AS WELL THANKS TO
SHADOWING. SO EVEN THOUGH SNOW AMOUNTS ARE OUT...THERE STILL COULD
BE SOME CHANGES THANKS TO SOME MESOSCALE ISSUES.

IMPACTS...

DUE TO THE FACT THAT SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LOW WITH THIS STORM...AND
BANDING WITH 1+ INCH/HR RATES ARE POSSIBLE...HEAVY WET SNOW MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES. THIS WILL BE EXACERBATED BY A LLJ AROUND
40 KT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN SOME OF IT/S MOMENTUM.
THEREFORE...THE COMBINATION OF WIND GUSTS 30-40 MPH AND HEAVY WET
SNOW MAY INCREASE THE RISK.

THE OTHER PRIMARY IMPACT IS THAT THE CHANGE-OVER AND HEAVIEST
PRECIP/SNOW WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THE PEAK HOURS OF THE AM
COMMUTE...WITH LOCALIZED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /2 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE MORE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM IN RELATION TO PREVIOUS
PROGS SUGGEST A SLOWER END. ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE
DRYING THE LOW LEVELS...SO THERE COULD BE A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW
LEFTOVER MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN MA BEFORE THINGS END BY
EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY DROP OFF DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS MAY CAUSE ANY UNTREATED ROADS TO BE SLIPPERY
FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

LONGWAVE SCALE CONTINUES TO SHOW BUIDLING RIDGE IN THE WEST AND
DIGGING TROUGH IN THE EAST...POINTING TO WARM TREND WEST AND COOLING
EAST. SMALLER SCALE CONTINUES TO SHOW A THREE-RING CIRCUS OF
SHORTWAVES EITHER AFFECTING OR WITH POTENTIAL TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE WITH TWO
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY
WHERE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVES COULD OCCUR.

MODEL MASS FIELDS ARE SIMILAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS ALSO AGREE
ON TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS...ONE WELL OFFSHORE MONDAY AND A SECOND CLOSE
TO SHORE TUESDAY. BUT ALL SHOW DIFFERING SCENARIOS FOR HOW THESE
SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BEST CONFIDENCE IN
HANDLING THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEMS IS WITH THE GEFS /ENSEMBLES/

THE DAILIES...

TONIGHT-SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COASTAL LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH NOVA SCOTIA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN USA.  EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES. CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WIND OVER FRESH SNOW COVER
MAY LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS TONIGHT THAN INDICATED BY GUIDENCE. WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT...WE BUMPED
GUIDENCE DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES.  ON SATURDAY WITH WINDS ALOFT
SHIFTING SOUTHWEST...THE MIXED LAYER SHOULD REACH AROUND 950 MB.
TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S.

SUNDAY...MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
CROSS THE NORTHEAST USA. THE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY WHILE THE ECMWF SEEMS TO LOSE THE FRONT
IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIMITED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS SUGGEST JUST
A FEW CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM QUEBEC
INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER
40S. THE COLDER AIR ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING MIN TEMPS
ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...GENERATES A
SURFACE LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST USA COAST. THIS COASTAL LOW THEN MOVES
NORTHEAST AND PASSES WELL OFFSHORE OF OUR AREA. NORMALLY THIS PATH
WOULD KEEP PCPN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER WITH THE HIGH TO THE NORTH WE
COULD DEVELOP SUFFICIENT MARINE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE TO BRING
CLOUDS AND PCPN MONDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW...BUT WITH POTENTIAL RAIN/SNOW
MIX NEAR THE COAST.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ASHORE FROM THE PACIFIC TONIGHT AND CROSSES
TO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS DIGS AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE MIDWEST AND LEADS TO COASTAL LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW THEN MOVES UP
THE COAST TUESDAY AND PASSES OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND. EACH MODEL
HANDLES THIS COASTAL LOW DIFFERENTLY...SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
SOLUTION IS LOW. CONFIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES FEET-DRY ON THE PACIFIC COAST.

BEST DYNAMICS UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET
MOVES OFF TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...SO BEST CHANCE
OF PCPN SHOULD BE ON TUESDAY THEN DIMINISH TO SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. PTYPE AGAIN FAVORS SNOW INLAND AND SNOW OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG THE COAST.

UPPER TROUGH/COLD POOL FROM THE MIDWEST LINGERS OVER THE NORTHEAST
USA THROUGH THURSDAY MAINTAINING SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

THROUGH 18Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST
OF THE TERMINALS. THE CHANGE OVER LINE IS PUSHING THROUGH UUU AND
PYM. THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS SWITCHING ALL PRECIP TO SNOW. ANTICIPATE SNOW ACCUMS ON
THE RUNWAYS ESP ORH...BOS AND PVD. GUSTY WINDS AROUND 20-30 KTS
WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP AFTER 15Z.

AFTER 18Z TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SNOWS/RAIN COME TO AN END AND VERY QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

OUTLOOK /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW OR
RAIN/SNOW MIX. NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 20-30 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY... NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS PICK UP THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KT ALONG THE SOUTHERN WATERS...AND 35-45
KT ON THE EASTERN WATERS. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. SEAS BECOME HIGH...MAINLY 8-10 FT ON THE SE OCEAN
WATERS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN/FOG ACROSS THE WATERS
WITH A POSSIBLE CHANGE TO SNOW NEAR THE EASTERN SHORELINES.

OUTLOOK /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...

TONIGHT...DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 30 KNOTS EARLY AND
POPPING UNDER 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS AS HIGH AS 14 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT TO 5-7 FEET BY MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR MOST WATERS DURING THE
NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY BELOW 25 KNOTS BUT
GUSTING NEAR 25 KNOTS EAST OF CAPE ANN SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS
DIMINISH SATURDAY BUT THEN RETURN TO NEAR 5 FEET EAST OF CAPE ANN
SATURDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY BUT WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...NORTH WINDS TURN NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO AT LEAST
NEAR 30 KNOTS EACH DAY. DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL BEHAVIOR OF THE
TWO COASTAL LOW PRESSURE AREAS PASSING BY...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
WINDS TO REACH 35-40 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR GALES AT
THIS TIME...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE. WINDS TURN BACK TO NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ003-
     004.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CTZ002.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ019>022.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ004>007-012>018-026.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ002-003-008>011.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     RIZ007.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     RIZ001>006.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 051128
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
628 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT STALLING OFFSHORE WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LOW PRESSURE
TO TRAVEL ALONG AFTER SUNRISE. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL DELIVER A
MIX OF RAIN CHANGING TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A WEAK
COLD FRONT SUNDAY MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS. A COMPLEX COASTAL STORM
SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...

630 AM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

DUAL-POL RADAR DATA SHOWS THE CHANGE OVER LINE SLOWLY MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN RI AND INTO PLYMOUTH MASS. THIS LINE WILL SLOWLY
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

ALREADY RECEIVING A FEW 1 INCH REPORTS WHICH LINES UP WITH THE
ONGOING FORECAST. THESE AMOUNTS ARE LOCATED ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN WORCESTER AND TOLLAND COUNTY. BELIEVE THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS.

ALREADY NOTICING SOME BANDING DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN
MASS...CENTRAL MASS. THIS LINES UP WITH THE STRONG OMEGA LIFT
WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. COULD SEE VSBYS REDUCED QUICKLY
WITHIN THESE BANDS AND A QUICK INCH OR TWO WITHIN THESE BANDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

*** WESTWARD TREND IN THE SYSTEM HAS ALLOWED FOR WARNINGS AND
  ADVISORIES TO BE EXPANDED ***

BUSY NIGHT AS WE CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE LATEST DATA AND TRENDS FOR
THIS UPCOMING WINTER SYSTEM. PRECIP SHIELD CONTINUES TO MOVE
WESTWARD AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH STRENGTHENS. GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
POOL INTO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR PWATS TO BE CLOSE TO AN INCH.
BIGGEST TREND BETWEEN THE 12Z AND 00Z RUNS IS THAT THE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES ITS WESTWARD TREND.

HEAVY PRECIP SWATH OVER NJ AND EASTERN PA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD AND IMPACT WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS. BECAUSE OF THIS
UPSTREAM TREND...HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE ALL OF THE PIONEER VALLEY. ANY PRECIP THAT IS OR WILL FALL
WILL BE SNOW ACROSS THE EAST SLOPE OF THE BERKS AS MESONET SITES ARE
ALREADY REPORTING TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS TREND IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP
GUIDANCE.

ASIDE FROM THE EXPANSION...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME. HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS OF EITHER SNOW...OR A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS CENTRAL MASS AND INTO CT. THIS IS ALSO IN LINE WITH THE
LATEST DUAL-POL DATA. HIGHER REFLECTIVITY ECHOES ARE STARTING TO
MOVE INTO WINDHAM COUNTY...WHICH WILL BE EITHER A MIX OR JUST SNOW
AS 925 MB TEMPS ARE ALREADY BELOW 32F PER SPC MESO DATA. ANTICIPATE
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO BE FAIRLY BUSY WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX
TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND SURFACE LOW NEARS.

P-TYPE AND CHANGE OVER TIMING...

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS COASTAL
LOW MOVES ALONG STALLED COLD FRONT. AS MENTIONED EARLIER THE PRECIP
SHIED HAS EXPANDED FARTHER WESTWARD THEN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...WHICH
IS THE LATEST TREND IN ALL OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE 06Z NAM.
CHANGE OVER HAS ALREADY STARTED TO OCCUR ACROSS SEVERAL LOCATIONS
AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STILL
CONCERNED ABOUT THE MORNING COMMUTE FOR MANY AREAS WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR WHERE HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE FALLING. ANTICIPATE THE CHANGE
OVER TO MAKE IT TO SOUTHEASTERN MASS INCLUDING BOS AND PVD CLOSER TO
THE 6-8 AM HOUR. THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER AS CAA
WILL TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO REACH THEM. FEEL IT WILL BE CLOSER TO
10AM-NOON. ALTHOUGH SLEET MAY MIX IN DURING THE TRANSITION...BELIEVE
MANY LOCATIONS WILL SWITCH FROM RAIN TO STRAIGHT SNOW.

QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...

HAVE ADJUSTED THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SOME OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
GENERALLY BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WARNING WILL GET AT
LEAST A SLOPPY 5-7 INCHES OF SNOW. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HILLS WITHIN
TOLLAND...WINDHAM...WORCESTER AND PROVIDENCE COUNTIES. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT FOR QPF. THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS AND THERMAL PROFILES. BELIEVE WE HAVE A GOOD TREND GOING
AT THIS TIME. SOME AREAS IN QUESTION WHICH COULD BE UPGRADED WITHIN
THE WARNING IS SOUTHERN BRISTOL AND PLYMOUTH COUNTIES. HOWEVER THESE
LOCATIONS MAY BE STUCK IN THE MIX LONGER KEEPING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
LOW. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE EAST SLOPE OF THE BERK TO AN
ADV AS SNOW IS ALREADY STARTING TO FALL PER WEBCAMS. THE PIONEER AND
CONNECTICUT VALLEY MAY SEE LOWER AMOUNTS AS WELL THANKS TO
SHADOWING. SO EVEN THOUGH SNOW AMOUNTS ARE OUT...THERE STILL COULD
BE SOME CHANGES THANKS TO SOME MESOSCALE ISSUES.

IMPACTS...

DUE TO THE FACT THAT SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LOW WITH THIS STORM...AND
BANDING WITH 1+ INCH/HR RATES ARE POSSIBLE...HEAVY WET SNOW MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES. THIS WILL BE EXACERBATED BY A LLJ AROUND
40 KT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN SOME OF IT/S MOMENTUM.
THEREFORE...THE COMBINATION OF WIND GUSTS 30-40 MPH AND HEAVY WET
SNOW MAY INCREASE THE RISK.

THE OTHER PRIMARY IMPACT IS THAT THE CHANGE-OVER AND HEAVIEST
PRECIP/SNOW WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THE PEAK HOURS OF THE AM
COMMUTE...WITH LOCALIZED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /2 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE MORE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM IN RELATION TO PREVIOUS
PROGS SUGGEST A SLOWER END. ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE
DRYING THE LOW LEVELS...SO THERE COULD BE A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW
LEFTOVER MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN MA BEFORE THINGS END BY
EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY DROP OFF DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS MAY CAUSE ANY UNTREATED ROADS TO BE SLIPPERY
FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

LONGWAVE SCALE CONTINUES TO SHOW BUIDLING RIDGE IN THE WEST AND
DIGGING TROUGH IN THE EAST...POINTING TO WARM TREND WEST AND COOLING
EAST. SMALLER SCALE CONTINUES TO SHOW A THREE-RING CIRCUS OF
SHORTWAVES EITHER AFFECTING OR WITH POTENTIAL TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE WITH TWO
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY
WHERE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVES COULD OCCUR.

MODEL MASS FIELDS ARE SIMILAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS ALSO AGREE
ON TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS...ONE WELL OFFSHORE MONDAY AND A SECOND CLOSE
TO SHORE TUESDAY. BUT ALL SHOW DIFFERING SCENARIOS FOR HOW THESE
SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BEST CONFIDENCE IN
HANDLING THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEMS IS WITH THE GEFS /ENSEMBLES/

THE DAILIES...

TONIGHT-SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COASTAL LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH NOVA SCOTIA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN USA.  EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES. CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WIND OVER FRESH SNOW COVER
MAY LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS TONIGHT THAN INDICATED BY GUIDENCE. WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT...WE BUMPED
GUIDENCE DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES.  ON SATURDAY WITH WINDS ALOFT
SHIFTING SOUTHWEST...THE MIXED LAYER SHOULD REACH AROUND 950 MB.
TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S.

SUNDAY...MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
CROSS THE NORTHEAST USA. THE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY WHILE THE ECMWF SEEMS TO LOSE THE FRONT
IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIMITED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS SUGGEST JUST
A FEW CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM QUEBEC
INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER
40S. THE COLDER AIR ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING MIN TEMPS
ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...GENERATES A
SURFACE LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST USA COAST. THIS COASTAL LOW THEN MOVES
NORTHEAST AND PASSES WELL OFFSHORE OF OUR AREA. NORMALLY THIS PATH
WOULD KEEP PCPN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER WITH THE HIGH TO THE NORTH WE
COULD DEVELOP SUFFICIENT MARINE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE TO BRING
CLOUDS AND PCPN MONDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW...BUT WITH POTENTIAL RAIN/SNOW
MIX NEAR THE COAST.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ASHORE FROM THE PACIFIC TONIGHT AND CROSSES
TO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS DIGS AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE MIDWEST AND LEADS TO COASTAL LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW THEN MOVES UP
THE COAST TUESDAY AND PASSES OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND. EACH MODEL
HANDLES THIS COASTAL LOW DIFFERENTLY...SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
SOLUTION IS LOW. CONFIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES FEET-DRY ON THE PACIFIC COAST.

BEST DYNAMICS UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET
MOVES OFF TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...SO BEST CHANCE
OF PCPN SHOULD BE ON TUESDAY THEN DIMINISH TO SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. PTYPE AGAIN FAVORS SNOW INLAND AND SNOW OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG THE COAST.

UPPER TROUGH/COLD POOL FROM THE MIDWEST LINGERS OVER THE NORTHEAST
USA THROUGH THURSDAY MAINTAINING SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

THROUGH 18Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST
OF THE TERMINALS. THE CHANGE OVER LINE IS PUSHING THROUGH UUU AND
PYM. THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS SWITCHING ALL PRECIP TO SNOW. ANTICIPATE SNOW ACCUMS ON
THE RUNWAYS ESP ORH...BOS AND PVD. GUSTY WINDS AROUND 20-30 KTS
WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP AFTER 15Z.

AFTER 18Z TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SNOWS/RAIN COME TO AN END AND VERY QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

OUTLOOK /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW OR
RAIN/SNOW MIX. NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 20-30 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY... NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS PICK UP THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KT ALONG THE SOUTHERN WATERS...AND 35-45
KT ON THE EASTERN WATERS. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. SEAS BECOME HIGH...MAINLY 8-10 FT ON THE SE OCEAN
WATERS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN/FOG ACROSS THE WATERS
WITH A POSSIBLE CHANGE TO SNOW NEAR THE EASTERN SHORELINES.

OUTLOOK /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...

TONIGHT...DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 30 KNOTS EARLY AND
POPPING UNDER 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS AS HIGH AS 14 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT TO 5-7 FEET BY MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR MOST WATERS DURING THE
NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY BELOW 25 KNOTS BUT
GUSTING NEAR 25 KNOTS EAST OF CAPE ANN SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS
DIMINISH SATURDAY BUT THEN RETURN TO NEAR 5 FEET EAST OF CAPE ANN
SATURDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY BUT WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...NORTH WINDS TURN NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO AT LEAST
NEAR 30 KNOTS EACH DAY. DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL BEHAVIOR OF THE
TWO COASTAL LOW PRESSURE AREAS PASSING BY...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
WINDS TO REACH 35-40 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR GALES AT
THIS TIME...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE. WINDS TURN BACK TO NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ003-
     004.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CTZ002.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ019>022.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ004>007-012>018-026.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ002-003-008>011.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     RIZ007.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     RIZ001>006.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 051128
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
628 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT STALLING OFFSHORE WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LOW PRESSURE
TO TRAVEL ALONG AFTER SUNRISE. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL DELIVER A
MIX OF RAIN CHANGING TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A WEAK
COLD FRONT SUNDAY MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS. A COMPLEX COASTAL STORM
SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...

630 AM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

DUAL-POL RADAR DATA SHOWS THE CHANGE OVER LINE SLOWLY MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN RI AND INTO PLYMOUTH MASS. THIS LINE WILL SLOWLY
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

ALREADY RECEIVING A FEW 1 INCH REPORTS WHICH LINES UP WITH THE
ONGOING FORECAST. THESE AMOUNTS ARE LOCATED ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN WORCESTER AND TOLLAND COUNTY. BELIEVE THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS.

ALREADY NOTICING SOME BANDING DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN
MASS...CENTRAL MASS. THIS LINES UP WITH THE STRONG OMEGA LIFT
WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. COULD SEE VSBYS REDUCED QUICKLY
WITHIN THESE BANDS AND A QUICK INCH OR TWO WITHIN THESE BANDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

*** WESTWARD TREND IN THE SYSTEM HAS ALLOWED FOR WARNINGS AND
  ADVISORIES TO BE EXPANDED ***

BUSY NIGHT AS WE CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE LATEST DATA AND TRENDS FOR
THIS UPCOMING WINTER SYSTEM. PRECIP SHIELD CONTINUES TO MOVE
WESTWARD AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH STRENGTHENS. GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
POOL INTO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR PWATS TO BE CLOSE TO AN INCH.
BIGGEST TREND BETWEEN THE 12Z AND 00Z RUNS IS THAT THE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES ITS WESTWARD TREND.

HEAVY PRECIP SWATH OVER NJ AND EASTERN PA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD AND IMPACT WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS. BECAUSE OF THIS
UPSTREAM TREND...HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE ALL OF THE PIONEER VALLEY. ANY PRECIP THAT IS OR WILL FALL
WILL BE SNOW ACROSS THE EAST SLOPE OF THE BERKS AS MESONET SITES ARE
ALREADY REPORTING TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS TREND IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP
GUIDANCE.

ASIDE FROM THE EXPANSION...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME. HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS OF EITHER SNOW...OR A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS CENTRAL MASS AND INTO CT. THIS IS ALSO IN LINE WITH THE
LATEST DUAL-POL DATA. HIGHER REFLECTIVITY ECHOES ARE STARTING TO
MOVE INTO WINDHAM COUNTY...WHICH WILL BE EITHER A MIX OR JUST SNOW
AS 925 MB TEMPS ARE ALREADY BELOW 32F PER SPC MESO DATA. ANTICIPATE
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO BE FAIRLY BUSY WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX
TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND SURFACE LOW NEARS.

P-TYPE AND CHANGE OVER TIMING...

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS COASTAL
LOW MOVES ALONG STALLED COLD FRONT. AS MENTIONED EARLIER THE PRECIP
SHIED HAS EXPANDED FARTHER WESTWARD THEN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...WHICH
IS THE LATEST TREND IN ALL OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE 06Z NAM.
CHANGE OVER HAS ALREADY STARTED TO OCCUR ACROSS SEVERAL LOCATIONS
AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STILL
CONCERNED ABOUT THE MORNING COMMUTE FOR MANY AREAS WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR WHERE HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE FALLING. ANTICIPATE THE CHANGE
OVER TO MAKE IT TO SOUTHEASTERN MASS INCLUDING BOS AND PVD CLOSER TO
THE 6-8 AM HOUR. THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER AS CAA
WILL TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO REACH THEM. FEEL IT WILL BE CLOSER TO
10AM-NOON. ALTHOUGH SLEET MAY MIX IN DURING THE TRANSITION...BELIEVE
MANY LOCATIONS WILL SWITCH FROM RAIN TO STRAIGHT SNOW.

QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...

HAVE ADJUSTED THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SOME OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
GENERALLY BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WARNING WILL GET AT
LEAST A SLOPPY 5-7 INCHES OF SNOW. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HILLS WITHIN
TOLLAND...WINDHAM...WORCESTER AND PROVIDENCE COUNTIES. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT FOR QPF. THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS AND THERMAL PROFILES. BELIEVE WE HAVE A GOOD TREND GOING
AT THIS TIME. SOME AREAS IN QUESTION WHICH COULD BE UPGRADED WITHIN
THE WARNING IS SOUTHERN BRISTOL AND PLYMOUTH COUNTIES. HOWEVER THESE
LOCATIONS MAY BE STUCK IN THE MIX LONGER KEEPING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
LOW. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE EAST SLOPE OF THE BERK TO AN
ADV AS SNOW IS ALREADY STARTING TO FALL PER WEBCAMS. THE PIONEER AND
CONNECTICUT VALLEY MAY SEE LOWER AMOUNTS AS WELL THANKS TO
SHADOWING. SO EVEN THOUGH SNOW AMOUNTS ARE OUT...THERE STILL COULD
BE SOME CHANGES THANKS TO SOME MESOSCALE ISSUES.

IMPACTS...

DUE TO THE FACT THAT SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LOW WITH THIS STORM...AND
BANDING WITH 1+ INCH/HR RATES ARE POSSIBLE...HEAVY WET SNOW MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES. THIS WILL BE EXACERBATED BY A LLJ AROUND
40 KT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN SOME OF IT/S MOMENTUM.
THEREFORE...THE COMBINATION OF WIND GUSTS 30-40 MPH AND HEAVY WET
SNOW MAY INCREASE THE RISK.

THE OTHER PRIMARY IMPACT IS THAT THE CHANGE-OVER AND HEAVIEST
PRECIP/SNOW WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THE PEAK HOURS OF THE AM
COMMUTE...WITH LOCALIZED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /2 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE MORE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM IN RELATION TO PREVIOUS
PROGS SUGGEST A SLOWER END. ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE
DRYING THE LOW LEVELS...SO THERE COULD BE A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW
LEFTOVER MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN MA BEFORE THINGS END BY
EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY DROP OFF DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS MAY CAUSE ANY UNTREATED ROADS TO BE SLIPPERY
FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

LONGWAVE SCALE CONTINUES TO SHOW BUIDLING RIDGE IN THE WEST AND
DIGGING TROUGH IN THE EAST...POINTING TO WARM TREND WEST AND COOLING
EAST. SMALLER SCALE CONTINUES TO SHOW A THREE-RING CIRCUS OF
SHORTWAVES EITHER AFFECTING OR WITH POTENTIAL TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE WITH TWO
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY
WHERE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVES COULD OCCUR.

MODEL MASS FIELDS ARE SIMILAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS ALSO AGREE
ON TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS...ONE WELL OFFSHORE MONDAY AND A SECOND CLOSE
TO SHORE TUESDAY. BUT ALL SHOW DIFFERING SCENARIOS FOR HOW THESE
SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BEST CONFIDENCE IN
HANDLING THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEMS IS WITH THE GEFS /ENSEMBLES/

THE DAILIES...

TONIGHT-SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COASTAL LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH NOVA SCOTIA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN USA.  EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES. CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WIND OVER FRESH SNOW COVER
MAY LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS TONIGHT THAN INDICATED BY GUIDENCE. WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT...WE BUMPED
GUIDENCE DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES.  ON SATURDAY WITH WINDS ALOFT
SHIFTING SOUTHWEST...THE MIXED LAYER SHOULD REACH AROUND 950 MB.
TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S.

SUNDAY...MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
CROSS THE NORTHEAST USA. THE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY WHILE THE ECMWF SEEMS TO LOSE THE FRONT
IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIMITED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS SUGGEST JUST
A FEW CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM QUEBEC
INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER
40S. THE COLDER AIR ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING MIN TEMPS
ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...GENERATES A
SURFACE LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST USA COAST. THIS COASTAL LOW THEN MOVES
NORTHEAST AND PASSES WELL OFFSHORE OF OUR AREA. NORMALLY THIS PATH
WOULD KEEP PCPN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER WITH THE HIGH TO THE NORTH WE
COULD DEVELOP SUFFICIENT MARINE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE TO BRING
CLOUDS AND PCPN MONDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW...BUT WITH POTENTIAL RAIN/SNOW
MIX NEAR THE COAST.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ASHORE FROM THE PACIFIC TONIGHT AND CROSSES
TO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS DIGS AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE MIDWEST AND LEADS TO COASTAL LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW THEN MOVES UP
THE COAST TUESDAY AND PASSES OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND. EACH MODEL
HANDLES THIS COASTAL LOW DIFFERENTLY...SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
SOLUTION IS LOW. CONFIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES FEET-DRY ON THE PACIFIC COAST.

BEST DYNAMICS UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET
MOVES OFF TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...SO BEST CHANCE
OF PCPN SHOULD BE ON TUESDAY THEN DIMINISH TO SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. PTYPE AGAIN FAVORS SNOW INLAND AND SNOW OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG THE COAST.

UPPER TROUGH/COLD POOL FROM THE MIDWEST LINGERS OVER THE NORTHEAST
USA THROUGH THURSDAY MAINTAINING SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

THROUGH 18Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST
OF THE TERMINALS. THE CHANGE OVER LINE IS PUSHING THROUGH UUU AND
PYM. THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS SWITCHING ALL PRECIP TO SNOW. ANTICIPATE SNOW ACCUMS ON
THE RUNWAYS ESP ORH...BOS AND PVD. GUSTY WINDS AROUND 20-30 KTS
WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP AFTER 15Z.

AFTER 18Z TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SNOWS/RAIN COME TO AN END AND VERY QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

OUTLOOK /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW OR
RAIN/SNOW MIX. NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 20-30 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY... NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS PICK UP THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KT ALONG THE SOUTHERN WATERS...AND 35-45
KT ON THE EASTERN WATERS. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. SEAS BECOME HIGH...MAINLY 8-10 FT ON THE SE OCEAN
WATERS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN/FOG ACROSS THE WATERS
WITH A POSSIBLE CHANGE TO SNOW NEAR THE EASTERN SHORELINES.

OUTLOOK /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...

TONIGHT...DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 30 KNOTS EARLY AND
POPPING UNDER 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS AS HIGH AS 14 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT TO 5-7 FEET BY MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR MOST WATERS DURING THE
NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY BELOW 25 KNOTS BUT
GUSTING NEAR 25 KNOTS EAST OF CAPE ANN SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS
DIMINISH SATURDAY BUT THEN RETURN TO NEAR 5 FEET EAST OF CAPE ANN
SATURDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY BUT WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...NORTH WINDS TURN NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO AT LEAST
NEAR 30 KNOTS EACH DAY. DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL BEHAVIOR OF THE
TWO COASTAL LOW PRESSURE AREAS PASSING BY...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
WINDS TO REACH 35-40 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR GALES AT
THIS TIME...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE. WINDS TURN BACK TO NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ003-
     004.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CTZ002.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ019>022.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ004>007-012>018-026.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ002-003-008>011.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     RIZ007.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     RIZ001>006.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 051128
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
628 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT STALLING OFFSHORE WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LOW PRESSURE
TO TRAVEL ALONG AFTER SUNRISE. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL DELIVER A
MIX OF RAIN CHANGING TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A WEAK
COLD FRONT SUNDAY MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS. A COMPLEX COASTAL STORM
SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...

630 AM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

DUAL-POL RADAR DATA SHOWS THE CHANGE OVER LINE SLOWLY MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN RI AND INTO PLYMOUTH MASS. THIS LINE WILL SLOWLY
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

ALREADY RECEIVING A FEW 1 INCH REPORTS WHICH LINES UP WITH THE
ONGOING FORECAST. THESE AMOUNTS ARE LOCATED ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN WORCESTER AND TOLLAND COUNTY. BELIEVE THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS.

ALREADY NOTICING SOME BANDING DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN
MASS...CENTRAL MASS. THIS LINES UP WITH THE STRONG OMEGA LIFT
WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. COULD SEE VSBYS REDUCED QUICKLY
WITHIN THESE BANDS AND A QUICK INCH OR TWO WITHIN THESE BANDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

*** WESTWARD TREND IN THE SYSTEM HAS ALLOWED FOR WARNINGS AND
  ADVISORIES TO BE EXPANDED ***

BUSY NIGHT AS WE CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE LATEST DATA AND TRENDS FOR
THIS UPCOMING WINTER SYSTEM. PRECIP SHIELD CONTINUES TO MOVE
WESTWARD AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH STRENGTHENS. GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
POOL INTO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR PWATS TO BE CLOSE TO AN INCH.
BIGGEST TREND BETWEEN THE 12Z AND 00Z RUNS IS THAT THE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES ITS WESTWARD TREND.

HEAVY PRECIP SWATH OVER NJ AND EASTERN PA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD AND IMPACT WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS. BECAUSE OF THIS
UPSTREAM TREND...HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE ALL OF THE PIONEER VALLEY. ANY PRECIP THAT IS OR WILL FALL
WILL BE SNOW ACROSS THE EAST SLOPE OF THE BERKS AS MESONET SITES ARE
ALREADY REPORTING TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS TREND IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP
GUIDANCE.

ASIDE FROM THE EXPANSION...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME. HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS OF EITHER SNOW...OR A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS CENTRAL MASS AND INTO CT. THIS IS ALSO IN LINE WITH THE
LATEST DUAL-POL DATA. HIGHER REFLECTIVITY ECHOES ARE STARTING TO
MOVE INTO WINDHAM COUNTY...WHICH WILL BE EITHER A MIX OR JUST SNOW
AS 925 MB TEMPS ARE ALREADY BELOW 32F PER SPC MESO DATA. ANTICIPATE
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO BE FAIRLY BUSY WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX
TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND SURFACE LOW NEARS.

P-TYPE AND CHANGE OVER TIMING...

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS COASTAL
LOW MOVES ALONG STALLED COLD FRONT. AS MENTIONED EARLIER THE PRECIP
SHIED HAS EXPANDED FARTHER WESTWARD THEN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...WHICH
IS THE LATEST TREND IN ALL OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE 06Z NAM.
CHANGE OVER HAS ALREADY STARTED TO OCCUR ACROSS SEVERAL LOCATIONS
AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STILL
CONCERNED ABOUT THE MORNING COMMUTE FOR MANY AREAS WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR WHERE HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE FALLING. ANTICIPATE THE CHANGE
OVER TO MAKE IT TO SOUTHEASTERN MASS INCLUDING BOS AND PVD CLOSER TO
THE 6-8 AM HOUR. THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER AS CAA
WILL TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO REACH THEM. FEEL IT WILL BE CLOSER TO
10AM-NOON. ALTHOUGH SLEET MAY MIX IN DURING THE TRANSITION...BELIEVE
MANY LOCATIONS WILL SWITCH FROM RAIN TO STRAIGHT SNOW.

QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...

HAVE ADJUSTED THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SOME OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
GENERALLY BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WARNING WILL GET AT
LEAST A SLOPPY 5-7 INCHES OF SNOW. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HILLS WITHIN
TOLLAND...WINDHAM...WORCESTER AND PROVIDENCE COUNTIES. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT FOR QPF. THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS AND THERMAL PROFILES. BELIEVE WE HAVE A GOOD TREND GOING
AT THIS TIME. SOME AREAS IN QUESTION WHICH COULD BE UPGRADED WITHIN
THE WARNING IS SOUTHERN BRISTOL AND PLYMOUTH COUNTIES. HOWEVER THESE
LOCATIONS MAY BE STUCK IN THE MIX LONGER KEEPING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
LOW. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE EAST SLOPE OF THE BERK TO AN
ADV AS SNOW IS ALREADY STARTING TO FALL PER WEBCAMS. THE PIONEER AND
CONNECTICUT VALLEY MAY SEE LOWER AMOUNTS AS WELL THANKS TO
SHADOWING. SO EVEN THOUGH SNOW AMOUNTS ARE OUT...THERE STILL COULD
BE SOME CHANGES THANKS TO SOME MESOSCALE ISSUES.

IMPACTS...

DUE TO THE FACT THAT SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LOW WITH THIS STORM...AND
BANDING WITH 1+ INCH/HR RATES ARE POSSIBLE...HEAVY WET SNOW MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES. THIS WILL BE EXACERBATED BY A LLJ AROUND
40 KT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN SOME OF IT/S MOMENTUM.
THEREFORE...THE COMBINATION OF WIND GUSTS 30-40 MPH AND HEAVY WET
SNOW MAY INCREASE THE RISK.

THE OTHER PRIMARY IMPACT IS THAT THE CHANGE-OVER AND HEAVIEST
PRECIP/SNOW WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THE PEAK HOURS OF THE AM
COMMUTE...WITH LOCALIZED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /2 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE MORE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM IN RELATION TO PREVIOUS
PROGS SUGGEST A SLOWER END. ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE
DRYING THE LOW LEVELS...SO THERE COULD BE A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW
LEFTOVER MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN MA BEFORE THINGS END BY
EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY DROP OFF DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS MAY CAUSE ANY UNTREATED ROADS TO BE SLIPPERY
FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

LONGWAVE SCALE CONTINUES TO SHOW BUIDLING RIDGE IN THE WEST AND
DIGGING TROUGH IN THE EAST...POINTING TO WARM TREND WEST AND COOLING
EAST. SMALLER SCALE CONTINUES TO SHOW A THREE-RING CIRCUS OF
SHORTWAVES EITHER AFFECTING OR WITH POTENTIAL TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE WITH TWO
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY
WHERE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVES COULD OCCUR.

MODEL MASS FIELDS ARE SIMILAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS ALSO AGREE
ON TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS...ONE WELL OFFSHORE MONDAY AND A SECOND CLOSE
TO SHORE TUESDAY. BUT ALL SHOW DIFFERING SCENARIOS FOR HOW THESE
SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BEST CONFIDENCE IN
HANDLING THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEMS IS WITH THE GEFS /ENSEMBLES/

THE DAILIES...

TONIGHT-SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COASTAL LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH NOVA SCOTIA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN USA.  EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES. CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WIND OVER FRESH SNOW COVER
MAY LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS TONIGHT THAN INDICATED BY GUIDENCE. WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT...WE BUMPED
GUIDENCE DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES.  ON SATURDAY WITH WINDS ALOFT
SHIFTING SOUTHWEST...THE MIXED LAYER SHOULD REACH AROUND 950 MB.
TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S.

SUNDAY...MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
CROSS THE NORTHEAST USA. THE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY WHILE THE ECMWF SEEMS TO LOSE THE FRONT
IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIMITED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS SUGGEST JUST
A FEW CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM QUEBEC
INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER
40S. THE COLDER AIR ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING MIN TEMPS
ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...GENERATES A
SURFACE LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST USA COAST. THIS COASTAL LOW THEN MOVES
NORTHEAST AND PASSES WELL OFFSHORE OF OUR AREA. NORMALLY THIS PATH
WOULD KEEP PCPN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER WITH THE HIGH TO THE NORTH WE
COULD DEVELOP SUFFICIENT MARINE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE TO BRING
CLOUDS AND PCPN MONDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW...BUT WITH POTENTIAL RAIN/SNOW
MIX NEAR THE COAST.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ASHORE FROM THE PACIFIC TONIGHT AND CROSSES
TO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS DIGS AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE MIDWEST AND LEADS TO COASTAL LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW THEN MOVES UP
THE COAST TUESDAY AND PASSES OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND. EACH MODEL
HANDLES THIS COASTAL LOW DIFFERENTLY...SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
SOLUTION IS LOW. CONFIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES FEET-DRY ON THE PACIFIC COAST.

BEST DYNAMICS UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET
MOVES OFF TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...SO BEST CHANCE
OF PCPN SHOULD BE ON TUESDAY THEN DIMINISH TO SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. PTYPE AGAIN FAVORS SNOW INLAND AND SNOW OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG THE COAST.

UPPER TROUGH/COLD POOL FROM THE MIDWEST LINGERS OVER THE NORTHEAST
USA THROUGH THURSDAY MAINTAINING SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

THROUGH 18Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST
OF THE TERMINALS. THE CHANGE OVER LINE IS PUSHING THROUGH UUU AND
PYM. THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS SWITCHING ALL PRECIP TO SNOW. ANTICIPATE SNOW ACCUMS ON
THE RUNWAYS ESP ORH...BOS AND PVD. GUSTY WINDS AROUND 20-30 KTS
WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP AFTER 15Z.

AFTER 18Z TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SNOWS/RAIN COME TO AN END AND VERY QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

OUTLOOK /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW OR
RAIN/SNOW MIX. NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 20-30 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY... NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS PICK UP THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KT ALONG THE SOUTHERN WATERS...AND 35-45
KT ON THE EASTERN WATERS. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. SEAS BECOME HIGH...MAINLY 8-10 FT ON THE SE OCEAN
WATERS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN/FOG ACROSS THE WATERS
WITH A POSSIBLE CHANGE TO SNOW NEAR THE EASTERN SHORELINES.

OUTLOOK /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...

TONIGHT...DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 30 KNOTS EARLY AND
POPPING UNDER 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS AS HIGH AS 14 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT TO 5-7 FEET BY MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR MOST WATERS DURING THE
NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY BELOW 25 KNOTS BUT
GUSTING NEAR 25 KNOTS EAST OF CAPE ANN SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS
DIMINISH SATURDAY BUT THEN RETURN TO NEAR 5 FEET EAST OF CAPE ANN
SATURDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY BUT WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...NORTH WINDS TURN NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO AT LEAST
NEAR 30 KNOTS EACH DAY. DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL BEHAVIOR OF THE
TWO COASTAL LOW PRESSURE AREAS PASSING BY...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
WINDS TO REACH 35-40 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR GALES AT
THIS TIME...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE. WINDS TURN BACK TO NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ003-
     004.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CTZ002.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ019>022.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ004>007-012>018-026.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ002-003-008>011.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     RIZ007.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     RIZ001>006.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 050852
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
352 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT STALLING OFFSHORE WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LOW PRESSURE
TO TRAVEL ALONG AFTER SUNRISE. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL DELIVER A
MIX OF RAIN CHANGING TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A WEAK
COLD FRONT SUNDAY MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS. A COMPLEX COASTAL STORM
SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
400 AM UPDATE...

*** WESTWARD TREND IN THE SYSTEM HAS ALLOWED FOR WARNINGS AND
  ADVISORIES TO BE EXPANDED ***

BUSY NIGHT AS WE CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE LATEST DATA AND TRENDS FOR
THIS UPCOMING WINTER SYSTEM. PRECIP SHIELD CONTINUES TO MOVE
WESTWARD AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH STRENGTHENS. GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
POOL INTO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR PWATS TO BE CLOSE TO AN INCH.
BIGGEST TREND BETWEEN THE 12Z AND 00Z RUNS IS THAT THE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES ITS WESTWARD TREND.

HEAVY PRECIP SWATH OVER NJ AND EASTERN PA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD AND IMPACT WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS. BECAUSE OF THIS
UPSTREAM TREND...HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE ALL OF THE PIONEER VALLEY. ANY PRECIP THAT IS OR WILL FALL
WILL BE SNOW ACROSS THE EAST SLOPE OF THE BERKS AS MESONET SITES ARE
ALREADY REPORTING TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS TREND IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP
GUIDANCE.

ASIDE FROM THE EXPANSION...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME. HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS OF EITHER SNOW...OR A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS CENTRAL MASS AND INTO CT. THIS IS ALSO IN LINE WITH THE
LATEST DUAL-POL DATA. HIGHER REFLECTIVITY ECHOES ARE STARTING TO
MOVE INTO WINDHAM COUNTY...WHICH WILL BE EITHER A MIX OR JUST SNOW
AS 925 MB TEMPS ARE ALREADY BELOW 32F PER SPC MESO DATA. ANTICIPATE
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO BE FAIRLY BUSY WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX
TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND SURFACE LOW NEARS.

P-TYPE AND CHANGE OVER TIMING...

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS COASTAL
LOW MOVES ALONG STALLED COLD FRONT. AS MENTIONED EARLIER THE PRECIP
SHIED HAS EXPANDED FARTHER WESTWARD THEN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...WHICH
IS THE LATEST TREND IN ALL OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE 06Z NAM.
CHANGE OVER HAS ALREADY STARTED TO OCCUR ACROSS SEVERAL LOCATIONS
AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STILL
CONCERNED ABOUT THE MORNING COMMUTE FOR MANY AREAS WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR WHERE HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE FALLING. ANTICIPATE THE CHANGE
OVER TO MAKE IT TO SOUTHEASTERN MASS INCLUDING BOS AND PVD CLOSER TO
THE 6-8 AM HOUR. THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER AS CAA
WILL TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO REACH THEM. FEEL IT WILL BE CLOSER TO
10AM-NOON. ALTHOUGH SLEET MAY MIX IN DURING THE TRANSITION...BELIEVE
MANY LOCATIONS WILL SWITCH FROM RAIN TO STRAIGHT SNOW.

QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...

HAVE ADJUSTED THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SOME OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
GENERALLY BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WARNING WILL GET AT
LEAST A SLOPPY 5-7 INCHES OF SNOW. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HILLS WITHIN
TOLLAND...WINDHAM...WORCESTER AND PROVIDENCE COUNTIES. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT FOR QPF. THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS AND THERMAL PROFILES. BELIEVE WE HAVE A GOOD TREND GOING
AT THIS TIME. SOME AREAS IN QUESTION WHICH COULD BE UPGRADED WITHIN
THE WARNING IS SOUTHERN BRISTOL AND PLYMOUTH COUNTIES. HOWEVER THESE
LOCATIONS MAY BE STUCK IN THE MIX LONGER KEEPING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
LOW. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE EAST SLOPE OF THE BERK TO AN
ADV AS SNOW IS ALREADY STARTING TO FALL PER WEBCAMS. THE PIONEER AND
CONNECTICUT VALLEY MAY SEE LOWER AMOUNTS AS WELL THANKS TO
SHADOWING. SO EVEN THOUGH SNOW AMOUNTS ARE OUT...THERE STILL COULD
BE SOME CHANGES THANKS TO SOME MESOSCALE ISSUES.

IMPACTS...

DUE TO THE FACT THAT SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LOW WITH THIS STORM...AND
BANDING WITH 1+ INCH/HR RATES ARE POSSIBLE...HEAVY WET SNOW MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES. THIS WILL BE EXACERBATED BY A LLJ AROUND
40 KT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN SOME OF IT/S MOMENTUM.
THEREFORE...THE COMBINATION OF WIND GUSTS 30-40 MPH AND HEAVY WET
SNOW MAY INCREASE THE RISK.

THE OTHER PRIMARY IMPACT IS THAT THE CHANGE-OVER AND HEAVIEST
PRECIP/SNOW WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THE PEAK HOURS OF THE AM
COMMUTE...WITH LOCALIZED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /2 PM THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...

THE MORE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM IN RELATION TO PREVIOUS
PROGS SUGGEST A SLOWER END. ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE
DRYING THE LOW LEVELS...SO THERE COULD BE A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW
LEFTOVER MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN MA BEFORE THINGS END BY
EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY DROP OFF DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS MAY CAUSE ANY UNTREATED ROADS TO BE SLIPPERY
FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

LONGWAVE SCALE CONTINUES TO SHOW BUIDLING RIDGE IN THE WEST AND
DIGGING TROUGH IN THE EAST...POINTING TO WARM TREND WEST AND COOLING
EAST. SMALLER SCALE CONTINUES TO SHOW A THREE-RING CIRCUS OF
SHORTWAVES EITHER AFFECTING OR WITH POTENTIAL TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE WITH TWO
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY
WHERE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVES COULD OCCUR.

MODEL MASS FIELDS ARE SIMILAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS ALSO AGREE
ON TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS...ONE WELL OFFSHORE MONDAY AND A SECOND CLOSE
TO SHORE TUESDAY. BUT ALL SHOW DIFFERING SCENARIOS FOR HOW THESE
SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BEST CONFIDENCE IN
HANDLING THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEMS IS WITH THE GEFS /ENSEMBLES/

THE DAILIES...

TONIGHT-SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COASTAL LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH NOVA SCOTIA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN USA.  EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES. CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WIND OVER FRESH SNOW COVER
MAY LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS TONIGHT THAN INDICATED BY GUIDENCE. WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT...WE BUMPED
GUIDENCE DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES.  ON SATURDAY WITH WINDS ALOFT
SHIFTING SOUTHWEST...THE MIXED LAYER SHOULD REACH AROUND 950 MB.
TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S.

SUNDAY...MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
CROSS THE NORTHEAST USA. THE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY WHILE THE ECMWF SEEMS TO LOSE THE FRONT
IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIMITED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS SUGGEST JUST
A FEW CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM QUEBEC
INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER
40S. THE COLDER AIR ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING MIN TEMPS
ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...GENERATES A
SURFACE LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST USA COAST. THIS COASTAL LOW THEN MOVES
NORTHEAST AND PASSES WELL OFFSHORE OF OUR AREA. NORMALLY THIS PATH
WOULD KEEP PCPN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER WITH THE HIGH TO THE NORTH WE
COULD DEVELOP SUFFICIENT MARINE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE TO BRING
CLOUDS AND PCPN MONDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW...BUT WITH POTENTIAL RAIN/SNOW
MIX NEAR THE COAST.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ASHORE FROM THE PACIFIC TONIGHT AND CROSSES
TO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS DIGS AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE MIDWEST AND LEADS TO COASTAL LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW THEN MOVES UP
THE COAST TUESDAY AND PASSES OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND. EACH MODEL
HANDLES THIS COASTAL LOW DIFFERENTLY...SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
SOLUTION IS LOW. CONFIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES FEET-DRY ON THE PACIFIC COAST.

BEST DYNAMICS UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET
MOVES OFF TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...SO BEST CHANCE
OF PCPN SHOULD BE ON TUESDAY THEN DIMINISH TO SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. PTYPE AGAIN FAVORS SNOW INLAND AND SNOW OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG THE COAST.

UPPER TROUGH/COLD POOL FROM THE MIDWEST LINGERS OVER THE NORTHEAST
USA THROUGH THURSDAY MAINTAINING SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

THROUGH 18Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THE RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO
EXPAND NORTHWEST...COVERING MOST OF SRN NEW ENGLAND BY ABOUT
10-12Z. THIS WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW
CIGS/VSBYS. THEN...AFTER 09Z ESPECIALLY THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO
SNOW FROM NW- SE UNTIL IT/S ALL SNOW AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS BY
ABOUT 16Z. SOME ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY
SFCS. HOWEVER RUNWAYS MAY RECEIVE A PLOWABLE AMOUNT OF SNOW. THIS
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS.

AFTER 18Z TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SNOWS/RAIN COME TO AN END AND VERY QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF PRECIP AND CHANGE TO SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
PRECIP TIMING.

OUTLOOK /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW OR
RAIN/SNOW MIX. NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 20-30 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY... NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS PICK UP THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KT ALONG THE SOUTHERN WATERS...AND 35-45
KT ON THE EASTERN WATERS. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. SEAS BECOME HIGH...MAINLY 8-10 FT ON THE SE OCEAN
WATERS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN/FOG ACROSS THE WATERS
WITH A POSSIBLE CHANGE TO SNOW NEAR THE EASTERN SHORELINES.

OUTLOOK /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...

TONIGHT...DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 30 KNOTS EARLY AND
POPPING UNDER 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS AS HIGH AS 14 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT TO 5-7 FEET BY MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR MOST WATERS DURING THE
NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY BELOW 25 KNOTS BUT
GUSTING NEAR 25 KNOTS EAST OF CAPE ANN SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS
DIMINISH SATURDAY BUT THEN RETURN TO NEAR 5 FEET EAST OF CAPE ANN
SATURDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY BUT WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...NORTH WINDS TURN NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO AT LEAST
NEAR 30 KNOTS EACH DAY. DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL BEHAVIOR OF THE
TWO COASTAL LOW PRESSURE AREAS PASSING BY...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
WINDS TO REACH 35-40 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR GALES AT
THIS TIME...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE. WINDS TURN BACK TO NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ003-
     004.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CTZ002.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ019>022.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ004>007-012>018-026.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ002-003-008>011.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ007.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     RIZ001>006.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ230-236-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 050852
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
352 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT STALLING OFFSHORE WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LOW PRESSURE
TO TRAVEL ALONG AFTER SUNRISE. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL DELIVER A
MIX OF RAIN CHANGING TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A WEAK
COLD FRONT SUNDAY MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS. A COMPLEX COASTAL STORM
SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
400 AM UPDATE...

*** WESTWARD TREND IN THE SYSTEM HAS ALLOWED FOR WARNINGS AND
  ADVISORIES TO BE EXPANDED ***

BUSY NIGHT AS WE CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE LATEST DATA AND TRENDS FOR
THIS UPCOMING WINTER SYSTEM. PRECIP SHIELD CONTINUES TO MOVE
WESTWARD AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH STRENGTHENS. GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
POOL INTO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR PWATS TO BE CLOSE TO AN INCH.
BIGGEST TREND BETWEEN THE 12Z AND 00Z RUNS IS THAT THE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES ITS WESTWARD TREND.

HEAVY PRECIP SWATH OVER NJ AND EASTERN PA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD AND IMPACT WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS. BECAUSE OF THIS
UPSTREAM TREND...HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE ALL OF THE PIONEER VALLEY. ANY PRECIP THAT IS OR WILL FALL
WILL BE SNOW ACROSS THE EAST SLOPE OF THE BERKS AS MESONET SITES ARE
ALREADY REPORTING TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS TREND IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP
GUIDANCE.

ASIDE FROM THE EXPANSION...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME. HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS OF EITHER SNOW...OR A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS CENTRAL MASS AND INTO CT. THIS IS ALSO IN LINE WITH THE
LATEST DUAL-POL DATA. HIGHER REFLECTIVITY ECHOES ARE STARTING TO
MOVE INTO WINDHAM COUNTY...WHICH WILL BE EITHER A MIX OR JUST SNOW
AS 925 MB TEMPS ARE ALREADY BELOW 32F PER SPC MESO DATA. ANTICIPATE
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO BE FAIRLY BUSY WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX
TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND SURFACE LOW NEARS.

P-TYPE AND CHANGE OVER TIMING...

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS COASTAL
LOW MOVES ALONG STALLED COLD FRONT. AS MENTIONED EARLIER THE PRECIP
SHIED HAS EXPANDED FARTHER WESTWARD THEN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...WHICH
IS THE LATEST TREND IN ALL OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE 06Z NAM.
CHANGE OVER HAS ALREADY STARTED TO OCCUR ACROSS SEVERAL LOCATIONS
AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STILL
CONCERNED ABOUT THE MORNING COMMUTE FOR MANY AREAS WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR WHERE HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE FALLING. ANTICIPATE THE CHANGE
OVER TO MAKE IT TO SOUTHEASTERN MASS INCLUDING BOS AND PVD CLOSER TO
THE 6-8 AM HOUR. THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER AS CAA
WILL TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO REACH THEM. FEEL IT WILL BE CLOSER TO
10AM-NOON. ALTHOUGH SLEET MAY MIX IN DURING THE TRANSITION...BELIEVE
MANY LOCATIONS WILL SWITCH FROM RAIN TO STRAIGHT SNOW.

QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...

HAVE ADJUSTED THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SOME OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
GENERALLY BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WARNING WILL GET AT
LEAST A SLOPPY 5-7 INCHES OF SNOW. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HILLS WITHIN
TOLLAND...WINDHAM...WORCESTER AND PROVIDENCE COUNTIES. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT FOR QPF. THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS AND THERMAL PROFILES. BELIEVE WE HAVE A GOOD TREND GOING
AT THIS TIME. SOME AREAS IN QUESTION WHICH COULD BE UPGRADED WITHIN
THE WARNING IS SOUTHERN BRISTOL AND PLYMOUTH COUNTIES. HOWEVER THESE
LOCATIONS MAY BE STUCK IN THE MIX LONGER KEEPING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
LOW. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE EAST SLOPE OF THE BERK TO AN
ADV AS SNOW IS ALREADY STARTING TO FALL PER WEBCAMS. THE PIONEER AND
CONNECTICUT VALLEY MAY SEE LOWER AMOUNTS AS WELL THANKS TO
SHADOWING. SO EVEN THOUGH SNOW AMOUNTS ARE OUT...THERE STILL COULD
BE SOME CHANGES THANKS TO SOME MESOSCALE ISSUES.

IMPACTS...

DUE TO THE FACT THAT SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LOW WITH THIS STORM...AND
BANDING WITH 1+ INCH/HR RATES ARE POSSIBLE...HEAVY WET SNOW MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES. THIS WILL BE EXACERBATED BY A LLJ AROUND
40 KT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN SOME OF IT/S MOMENTUM.
THEREFORE...THE COMBINATION OF WIND GUSTS 30-40 MPH AND HEAVY WET
SNOW MAY INCREASE THE RISK.

THE OTHER PRIMARY IMPACT IS THAT THE CHANGE-OVER AND HEAVIEST
PRECIP/SNOW WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THE PEAK HOURS OF THE AM
COMMUTE...WITH LOCALIZED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /2 PM THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...

THE MORE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM IN RELATION TO PREVIOUS
PROGS SUGGEST A SLOWER END. ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE
DRYING THE LOW LEVELS...SO THERE COULD BE A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW
LEFTOVER MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN MA BEFORE THINGS END BY
EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY DROP OFF DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS MAY CAUSE ANY UNTREATED ROADS TO BE SLIPPERY
FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

LONGWAVE SCALE CONTINUES TO SHOW BUIDLING RIDGE IN THE WEST AND
DIGGING TROUGH IN THE EAST...POINTING TO WARM TREND WEST AND COOLING
EAST. SMALLER SCALE CONTINUES TO SHOW A THREE-RING CIRCUS OF
SHORTWAVES EITHER AFFECTING OR WITH POTENTIAL TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE WITH TWO
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY
WHERE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVES COULD OCCUR.

MODEL MASS FIELDS ARE SIMILAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS ALSO AGREE
ON TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS...ONE WELL OFFSHORE MONDAY AND A SECOND CLOSE
TO SHORE TUESDAY. BUT ALL SHOW DIFFERING SCENARIOS FOR HOW THESE
SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BEST CONFIDENCE IN
HANDLING THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEMS IS WITH THE GEFS /ENSEMBLES/

THE DAILIES...

TONIGHT-SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COASTAL LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH NOVA SCOTIA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN USA.  EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES. CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WIND OVER FRESH SNOW COVER
MAY LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS TONIGHT THAN INDICATED BY GUIDENCE. WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT...WE BUMPED
GUIDENCE DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES.  ON SATURDAY WITH WINDS ALOFT
SHIFTING SOUTHWEST...THE MIXED LAYER SHOULD REACH AROUND 950 MB.
TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S.

SUNDAY...MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
CROSS THE NORTHEAST USA. THE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY WHILE THE ECMWF SEEMS TO LOSE THE FRONT
IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIMITED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS SUGGEST JUST
A FEW CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM QUEBEC
INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER
40S. THE COLDER AIR ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING MIN TEMPS
ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...GENERATES A
SURFACE LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST USA COAST. THIS COASTAL LOW THEN MOVES
NORTHEAST AND PASSES WELL OFFSHORE OF OUR AREA. NORMALLY THIS PATH
WOULD KEEP PCPN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER WITH THE HIGH TO THE NORTH WE
COULD DEVELOP SUFFICIENT MARINE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE TO BRING
CLOUDS AND PCPN MONDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW...BUT WITH POTENTIAL RAIN/SNOW
MIX NEAR THE COAST.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ASHORE FROM THE PACIFIC TONIGHT AND CROSSES
TO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS DIGS AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE MIDWEST AND LEADS TO COASTAL LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW THEN MOVES UP
THE COAST TUESDAY AND PASSES OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND. EACH MODEL
HANDLES THIS COASTAL LOW DIFFERENTLY...SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
SOLUTION IS LOW. CONFIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES FEET-DRY ON THE PACIFIC COAST.

BEST DYNAMICS UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET
MOVES OFF TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...SO BEST CHANCE
OF PCPN SHOULD BE ON TUESDAY THEN DIMINISH TO SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. PTYPE AGAIN FAVORS SNOW INLAND AND SNOW OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG THE COAST.

UPPER TROUGH/COLD POOL FROM THE MIDWEST LINGERS OVER THE NORTHEAST
USA THROUGH THURSDAY MAINTAINING SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

THROUGH 18Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THE RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO
EXPAND NORTHWEST...COVERING MOST OF SRN NEW ENGLAND BY ABOUT
10-12Z. THIS WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW
CIGS/VSBYS. THEN...AFTER 09Z ESPECIALLY THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO
SNOW FROM NW- SE UNTIL IT/S ALL SNOW AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS BY
ABOUT 16Z. SOME ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY
SFCS. HOWEVER RUNWAYS MAY RECEIVE A PLOWABLE AMOUNT OF SNOW. THIS
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS.

AFTER 18Z TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SNOWS/RAIN COME TO AN END AND VERY QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF PRECIP AND CHANGE TO SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
PRECIP TIMING.

OUTLOOK /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW OR
RAIN/SNOW MIX. NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 20-30 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY... NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS PICK UP THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KT ALONG THE SOUTHERN WATERS...AND 35-45
KT ON THE EASTERN WATERS. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. SEAS BECOME HIGH...MAINLY 8-10 FT ON THE SE OCEAN
WATERS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN/FOG ACROSS THE WATERS
WITH A POSSIBLE CHANGE TO SNOW NEAR THE EASTERN SHORELINES.

OUTLOOK /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...

TONIGHT...DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 30 KNOTS EARLY AND
POPPING UNDER 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS AS HIGH AS 14 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT TO 5-7 FEET BY MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR MOST WATERS DURING THE
NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY BELOW 25 KNOTS BUT
GUSTING NEAR 25 KNOTS EAST OF CAPE ANN SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS
DIMINISH SATURDAY BUT THEN RETURN TO NEAR 5 FEET EAST OF CAPE ANN
SATURDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY BUT WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...NORTH WINDS TURN NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO AT LEAST
NEAR 30 KNOTS EACH DAY. DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL BEHAVIOR OF THE
TWO COASTAL LOW PRESSURE AREAS PASSING BY...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
WINDS TO REACH 35-40 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR GALES AT
THIS TIME...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE. WINDS TURN BACK TO NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ003-
     004.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CTZ002.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ019>022.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ004>007-012>018-026.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ002-003-008>011.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ007.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     RIZ001>006.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ230-236-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 050852
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
352 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT STALLING OFFSHORE WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LOW PRESSURE
TO TRAVEL ALONG AFTER SUNRISE. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL DELIVER A
MIX OF RAIN CHANGING TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A WEAK
COLD FRONT SUNDAY MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS. A COMPLEX COASTAL STORM
SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
400 AM UPDATE...

*** WESTWARD TREND IN THE SYSTEM HAS ALLOWED FOR WARNINGS AND
  ADVISORIES TO BE EXPANDED ***

BUSY NIGHT AS WE CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE LATEST DATA AND TRENDS FOR
THIS UPCOMING WINTER SYSTEM. PRECIP SHIELD CONTINUES TO MOVE
WESTWARD AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH STRENGTHENS. GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
POOL INTO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR PWATS TO BE CLOSE TO AN INCH.
BIGGEST TREND BETWEEN THE 12Z AND 00Z RUNS IS THAT THE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES ITS WESTWARD TREND.

HEAVY PRECIP SWATH OVER NJ AND EASTERN PA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD AND IMPACT WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS. BECAUSE OF THIS
UPSTREAM TREND...HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE ALL OF THE PIONEER VALLEY. ANY PRECIP THAT IS OR WILL FALL
WILL BE SNOW ACROSS THE EAST SLOPE OF THE BERKS AS MESONET SITES ARE
ALREADY REPORTING TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS TREND IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP
GUIDANCE.

ASIDE FROM THE EXPANSION...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME. HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS OF EITHER SNOW...OR A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS CENTRAL MASS AND INTO CT. THIS IS ALSO IN LINE WITH THE
LATEST DUAL-POL DATA. HIGHER REFLECTIVITY ECHOES ARE STARTING TO
MOVE INTO WINDHAM COUNTY...WHICH WILL BE EITHER A MIX OR JUST SNOW
AS 925 MB TEMPS ARE ALREADY BELOW 32F PER SPC MESO DATA. ANTICIPATE
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO BE FAIRLY BUSY WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX
TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND SURFACE LOW NEARS.

P-TYPE AND CHANGE OVER TIMING...

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS COASTAL
LOW MOVES ALONG STALLED COLD FRONT. AS MENTIONED EARLIER THE PRECIP
SHIED HAS EXPANDED FARTHER WESTWARD THEN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...WHICH
IS THE LATEST TREND IN ALL OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE 06Z NAM.
CHANGE OVER HAS ALREADY STARTED TO OCCUR ACROSS SEVERAL LOCATIONS
AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STILL
CONCERNED ABOUT THE MORNING COMMUTE FOR MANY AREAS WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR WHERE HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE FALLING. ANTICIPATE THE CHANGE
OVER TO MAKE IT TO SOUTHEASTERN MASS INCLUDING BOS AND PVD CLOSER TO
THE 6-8 AM HOUR. THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER AS CAA
WILL TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO REACH THEM. FEEL IT WILL BE CLOSER TO
10AM-NOON. ALTHOUGH SLEET MAY MIX IN DURING THE TRANSITION...BELIEVE
MANY LOCATIONS WILL SWITCH FROM RAIN TO STRAIGHT SNOW.

QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...

HAVE ADJUSTED THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SOME OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
GENERALLY BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WARNING WILL GET AT
LEAST A SLOPPY 5-7 INCHES OF SNOW. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HILLS WITHIN
TOLLAND...WINDHAM...WORCESTER AND PROVIDENCE COUNTIES. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT FOR QPF. THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS AND THERMAL PROFILES. BELIEVE WE HAVE A GOOD TREND GOING
AT THIS TIME. SOME AREAS IN QUESTION WHICH COULD BE UPGRADED WITHIN
THE WARNING IS SOUTHERN BRISTOL AND PLYMOUTH COUNTIES. HOWEVER THESE
LOCATIONS MAY BE STUCK IN THE MIX LONGER KEEPING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
LOW. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE EAST SLOPE OF THE BERK TO AN
ADV AS SNOW IS ALREADY STARTING TO FALL PER WEBCAMS. THE PIONEER AND
CONNECTICUT VALLEY MAY SEE LOWER AMOUNTS AS WELL THANKS TO
SHADOWING. SO EVEN THOUGH SNOW AMOUNTS ARE OUT...THERE STILL COULD
BE SOME CHANGES THANKS TO SOME MESOSCALE ISSUES.

IMPACTS...

DUE TO THE FACT THAT SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LOW WITH THIS STORM...AND
BANDING WITH 1+ INCH/HR RATES ARE POSSIBLE...HEAVY WET SNOW MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES. THIS WILL BE EXACERBATED BY A LLJ AROUND
40 KT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN SOME OF IT/S MOMENTUM.
THEREFORE...THE COMBINATION OF WIND GUSTS 30-40 MPH AND HEAVY WET
SNOW MAY INCREASE THE RISK.

THE OTHER PRIMARY IMPACT IS THAT THE CHANGE-OVER AND HEAVIEST
PRECIP/SNOW WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THE PEAK HOURS OF THE AM
COMMUTE...WITH LOCALIZED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /2 PM THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...

THE MORE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM IN RELATION TO PREVIOUS
PROGS SUGGEST A SLOWER END. ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE
DRYING THE LOW LEVELS...SO THERE COULD BE A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW
LEFTOVER MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN MA BEFORE THINGS END BY
EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY DROP OFF DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS MAY CAUSE ANY UNTREATED ROADS TO BE SLIPPERY
FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

LONGWAVE SCALE CONTINUES TO SHOW BUIDLING RIDGE IN THE WEST AND
DIGGING TROUGH IN THE EAST...POINTING TO WARM TREND WEST AND COOLING
EAST. SMALLER SCALE CONTINUES TO SHOW A THREE-RING CIRCUS OF
SHORTWAVES EITHER AFFECTING OR WITH POTENTIAL TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE WITH TWO
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY
WHERE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVES COULD OCCUR.

MODEL MASS FIELDS ARE SIMILAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS ALSO AGREE
ON TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS...ONE WELL OFFSHORE MONDAY AND A SECOND CLOSE
TO SHORE TUESDAY. BUT ALL SHOW DIFFERING SCENARIOS FOR HOW THESE
SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BEST CONFIDENCE IN
HANDLING THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEMS IS WITH THE GEFS /ENSEMBLES/

THE DAILIES...

TONIGHT-SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COASTAL LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH NOVA SCOTIA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN USA.  EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES. CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WIND OVER FRESH SNOW COVER
MAY LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS TONIGHT THAN INDICATED BY GUIDENCE. WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT...WE BUMPED
GUIDENCE DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES.  ON SATURDAY WITH WINDS ALOFT
SHIFTING SOUTHWEST...THE MIXED LAYER SHOULD REACH AROUND 950 MB.
TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S.

SUNDAY...MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
CROSS THE NORTHEAST USA. THE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY WHILE THE ECMWF SEEMS TO LOSE THE FRONT
IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIMITED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS SUGGEST JUST
A FEW CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM QUEBEC
INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER
40S. THE COLDER AIR ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING MIN TEMPS
ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...GENERATES A
SURFACE LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST USA COAST. THIS COASTAL LOW THEN MOVES
NORTHEAST AND PASSES WELL OFFSHORE OF OUR AREA. NORMALLY THIS PATH
WOULD KEEP PCPN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER WITH THE HIGH TO THE NORTH WE
COULD DEVELOP SUFFICIENT MARINE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE TO BRING
CLOUDS AND PCPN MONDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW...BUT WITH POTENTIAL RAIN/SNOW
MIX NEAR THE COAST.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ASHORE FROM THE PACIFIC TONIGHT AND CROSSES
TO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS DIGS AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE MIDWEST AND LEADS TO COASTAL LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW THEN MOVES UP
THE COAST TUESDAY AND PASSES OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND. EACH MODEL
HANDLES THIS COASTAL LOW DIFFERENTLY...SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
SOLUTION IS LOW. CONFIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES FEET-DRY ON THE PACIFIC COAST.

BEST DYNAMICS UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET
MOVES OFF TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...SO BEST CHANCE
OF PCPN SHOULD BE ON TUESDAY THEN DIMINISH TO SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. PTYPE AGAIN FAVORS SNOW INLAND AND SNOW OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG THE COAST.

UPPER TROUGH/COLD POOL FROM THE MIDWEST LINGERS OVER THE NORTHEAST
USA THROUGH THURSDAY MAINTAINING SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

THROUGH 18Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THE RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO
EXPAND NORTHWEST...COVERING MOST OF SRN NEW ENGLAND BY ABOUT
10-12Z. THIS WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW
CIGS/VSBYS. THEN...AFTER 09Z ESPECIALLY THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO
SNOW FROM NW- SE UNTIL IT/S ALL SNOW AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS BY
ABOUT 16Z. SOME ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY
SFCS. HOWEVER RUNWAYS MAY RECEIVE A PLOWABLE AMOUNT OF SNOW. THIS
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS.

AFTER 18Z TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SNOWS/RAIN COME TO AN END AND VERY QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF PRECIP AND CHANGE TO SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
PRECIP TIMING.

OUTLOOK /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW OR
RAIN/SNOW MIX. NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 20-30 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY... NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS PICK UP THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KT ALONG THE SOUTHERN WATERS...AND 35-45
KT ON THE EASTERN WATERS. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. SEAS BECOME HIGH...MAINLY 8-10 FT ON THE SE OCEAN
WATERS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN/FOG ACROSS THE WATERS
WITH A POSSIBLE CHANGE TO SNOW NEAR THE EASTERN SHORELINES.

OUTLOOK /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...

TONIGHT...DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 30 KNOTS EARLY AND
POPPING UNDER 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS AS HIGH AS 14 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT TO 5-7 FEET BY MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR MOST WATERS DURING THE
NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY BELOW 25 KNOTS BUT
GUSTING NEAR 25 KNOTS EAST OF CAPE ANN SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS
DIMINISH SATURDAY BUT THEN RETURN TO NEAR 5 FEET EAST OF CAPE ANN
SATURDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY BUT WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...NORTH WINDS TURN NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO AT LEAST
NEAR 30 KNOTS EACH DAY. DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL BEHAVIOR OF THE
TWO COASTAL LOW PRESSURE AREAS PASSING BY...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
WINDS TO REACH 35-40 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR GALES AT
THIS TIME...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE. WINDS TURN BACK TO NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ003-
     004.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CTZ002.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ019>022.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ004>007-012>018-026.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ002-003-008>011.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ007.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     RIZ001>006.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ230-236-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 050852
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
352 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT STALLING OFFSHORE WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LOW PRESSURE
TO TRAVEL ALONG AFTER SUNRISE. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL DELIVER A
MIX OF RAIN CHANGING TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A WEAK
COLD FRONT SUNDAY MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS. A COMPLEX COASTAL STORM
SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
400 AM UPDATE...

*** WESTWARD TREND IN THE SYSTEM HAS ALLOWED FOR WARNINGS AND
  ADVISORIES TO BE EXPANDED ***

BUSY NIGHT AS WE CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE LATEST DATA AND TRENDS FOR
THIS UPCOMING WINTER SYSTEM. PRECIP SHIELD CONTINUES TO MOVE
WESTWARD AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH STRENGTHENS. GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
POOL INTO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR PWATS TO BE CLOSE TO AN INCH.
BIGGEST TREND BETWEEN THE 12Z AND 00Z RUNS IS THAT THE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES ITS WESTWARD TREND.

HEAVY PRECIP SWATH OVER NJ AND EASTERN PA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD AND IMPACT WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS. BECAUSE OF THIS
UPSTREAM TREND...HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE ALL OF THE PIONEER VALLEY. ANY PRECIP THAT IS OR WILL FALL
WILL BE SNOW ACROSS THE EAST SLOPE OF THE BERKS AS MESONET SITES ARE
ALREADY REPORTING TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS TREND IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP
GUIDANCE.

ASIDE FROM THE EXPANSION...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME. HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS OF EITHER SNOW...OR A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS CENTRAL MASS AND INTO CT. THIS IS ALSO IN LINE WITH THE
LATEST DUAL-POL DATA. HIGHER REFLECTIVITY ECHOES ARE STARTING TO
MOVE INTO WINDHAM COUNTY...WHICH WILL BE EITHER A MIX OR JUST SNOW
AS 925 MB TEMPS ARE ALREADY BELOW 32F PER SPC MESO DATA. ANTICIPATE
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO BE FAIRLY BUSY WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX
TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND SURFACE LOW NEARS.

P-TYPE AND CHANGE OVER TIMING...

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS COASTAL
LOW MOVES ALONG STALLED COLD FRONT. AS MENTIONED EARLIER THE PRECIP
SHIED HAS EXPANDED FARTHER WESTWARD THEN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...WHICH
IS THE LATEST TREND IN ALL OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE 06Z NAM.
CHANGE OVER HAS ALREADY STARTED TO OCCUR ACROSS SEVERAL LOCATIONS
AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STILL
CONCERNED ABOUT THE MORNING COMMUTE FOR MANY AREAS WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR WHERE HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE FALLING. ANTICIPATE THE CHANGE
OVER TO MAKE IT TO SOUTHEASTERN MASS INCLUDING BOS AND PVD CLOSER TO
THE 6-8 AM HOUR. THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER AS CAA
WILL TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO REACH THEM. FEEL IT WILL BE CLOSER TO
10AM-NOON. ALTHOUGH SLEET MAY MIX IN DURING THE TRANSITION...BELIEVE
MANY LOCATIONS WILL SWITCH FROM RAIN TO STRAIGHT SNOW.

QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...

HAVE ADJUSTED THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SOME OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
GENERALLY BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WARNING WILL GET AT
LEAST A SLOPPY 5-7 INCHES OF SNOW. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HILLS WITHIN
TOLLAND...WINDHAM...WORCESTER AND PROVIDENCE COUNTIES. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT FOR QPF. THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS AND THERMAL PROFILES. BELIEVE WE HAVE A GOOD TREND GOING
AT THIS TIME. SOME AREAS IN QUESTION WHICH COULD BE UPGRADED WITHIN
THE WARNING IS SOUTHERN BRISTOL AND PLYMOUTH COUNTIES. HOWEVER THESE
LOCATIONS MAY BE STUCK IN THE MIX LONGER KEEPING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
LOW. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE EAST SLOPE OF THE BERK TO AN
ADV AS SNOW IS ALREADY STARTING TO FALL PER WEBCAMS. THE PIONEER AND
CONNECTICUT VALLEY MAY SEE LOWER AMOUNTS AS WELL THANKS TO
SHADOWING. SO EVEN THOUGH SNOW AMOUNTS ARE OUT...THERE STILL COULD
BE SOME CHANGES THANKS TO SOME MESOSCALE ISSUES.

IMPACTS...

DUE TO THE FACT THAT SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LOW WITH THIS STORM...AND
BANDING WITH 1+ INCH/HR RATES ARE POSSIBLE...HEAVY WET SNOW MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES. THIS WILL BE EXACERBATED BY A LLJ AROUND
40 KT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN SOME OF IT/S MOMENTUM.
THEREFORE...THE COMBINATION OF WIND GUSTS 30-40 MPH AND HEAVY WET
SNOW MAY INCREASE THE RISK.

THE OTHER PRIMARY IMPACT IS THAT THE CHANGE-OVER AND HEAVIEST
PRECIP/SNOW WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THE PEAK HOURS OF THE AM
COMMUTE...WITH LOCALIZED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /2 PM THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...

THE MORE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM IN RELATION TO PREVIOUS
PROGS SUGGEST A SLOWER END. ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE
DRYING THE LOW LEVELS...SO THERE COULD BE A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW
LEFTOVER MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN MA BEFORE THINGS END BY
EARLY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY DROP OFF DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS MAY CAUSE ANY UNTREATED ROADS TO BE SLIPPERY
FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

LONGWAVE SCALE CONTINUES TO SHOW BUIDLING RIDGE IN THE WEST AND
DIGGING TROUGH IN THE EAST...POINTING TO WARM TREND WEST AND COOLING
EAST. SMALLER SCALE CONTINUES TO SHOW A THREE-RING CIRCUS OF
SHORTWAVES EITHER AFFECTING OR WITH POTENTIAL TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE WITH TWO
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY
WHERE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVES COULD OCCUR.

MODEL MASS FIELDS ARE SIMILAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS ALSO AGREE
ON TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS...ONE WELL OFFSHORE MONDAY AND A SECOND CLOSE
TO SHORE TUESDAY. BUT ALL SHOW DIFFERING SCENARIOS FOR HOW THESE
SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BEST CONFIDENCE IN
HANDLING THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEMS IS WITH THE GEFS /ENSEMBLES/

THE DAILIES...

TONIGHT-SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COASTAL LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH NOVA SCOTIA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN USA.  EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES. CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WIND OVER FRESH SNOW COVER
MAY LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS TONIGHT THAN INDICATED BY GUIDENCE. WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT...WE BUMPED
GUIDENCE DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES.  ON SATURDAY WITH WINDS ALOFT
SHIFTING SOUTHWEST...THE MIXED LAYER SHOULD REACH AROUND 950 MB.
TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S.

SUNDAY...MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
CROSS THE NORTHEAST USA. THE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY WHILE THE ECMWF SEEMS TO LOSE THE FRONT
IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIMITED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS SUGGEST JUST
A FEW CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM QUEBEC
INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER
40S. THE COLDER AIR ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING MIN TEMPS
ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...GENERATES A
SURFACE LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST USA COAST. THIS COASTAL LOW THEN MOVES
NORTHEAST AND PASSES WELL OFFSHORE OF OUR AREA. NORMALLY THIS PATH
WOULD KEEP PCPN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER WITH THE HIGH TO THE NORTH WE
COULD DEVELOP SUFFICIENT MARINE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE TO BRING
CLOUDS AND PCPN MONDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW...BUT WITH POTENTIAL RAIN/SNOW
MIX NEAR THE COAST.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ASHORE FROM THE PACIFIC TONIGHT AND CROSSES
TO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS DIGS AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE MIDWEST AND LEADS TO COASTAL LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW THEN MOVES UP
THE COAST TUESDAY AND PASSES OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND. EACH MODEL
HANDLES THIS COASTAL LOW DIFFERENTLY...SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
SOLUTION IS LOW. CONFIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES FEET-DRY ON THE PACIFIC COAST.

BEST DYNAMICS UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET
MOVES OFF TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...SO BEST CHANCE
OF PCPN SHOULD BE ON TUESDAY THEN DIMINISH TO SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. PTYPE AGAIN FAVORS SNOW INLAND AND SNOW OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG THE COAST.

UPPER TROUGH/COLD POOL FROM THE MIDWEST LINGERS OVER THE NORTHEAST
USA THROUGH THURSDAY MAINTAINING SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

THROUGH 18Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THE RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO
EXPAND NORTHWEST...COVERING MOST OF SRN NEW ENGLAND BY ABOUT
10-12Z. THIS WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW
CIGS/VSBYS. THEN...AFTER 09Z ESPECIALLY THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO
SNOW FROM NW- SE UNTIL IT/S ALL SNOW AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS BY
ABOUT 16Z. SOME ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY
SFCS. HOWEVER RUNWAYS MAY RECEIVE A PLOWABLE AMOUNT OF SNOW. THIS
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS.

AFTER 18Z TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SNOWS/RAIN COME TO AN END AND VERY QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF PRECIP AND CHANGE TO SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
PRECIP TIMING.

OUTLOOK /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW OR
RAIN/SNOW MIX. NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 20-30 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY... NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS PICK UP THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KT ALONG THE SOUTHERN WATERS...AND 35-45
KT ON THE EASTERN WATERS. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. SEAS BECOME HIGH...MAINLY 8-10 FT ON THE SE OCEAN
WATERS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN/FOG ACROSS THE WATERS
WITH A POSSIBLE CHANGE TO SNOW NEAR THE EASTERN SHORELINES.

OUTLOOK /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...

TONIGHT...DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 30 KNOTS EARLY AND
POPPING UNDER 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS AS HIGH AS 14 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT TO 5-7 FEET BY MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR MOST WATERS DURING THE
NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY BELOW 25 KNOTS BUT
GUSTING NEAR 25 KNOTS EAST OF CAPE ANN SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS
DIMINISH SATURDAY BUT THEN RETURN TO NEAR 5 FEET EAST OF CAPE ANN
SATURDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY BUT WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...NORTH WINDS TURN NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO AT LEAST
NEAR 30 KNOTS EACH DAY. DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL BEHAVIOR OF THE
TWO COASTAL LOW PRESSURE AREAS PASSING BY...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
WINDS TO REACH 35-40 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR GALES AT
THIS TIME...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE. WINDS TURN BACK TO NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ003-
     004.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CTZ002.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ019>022.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ004>007-012>018-026.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ002-003-008>011.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ007.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     RIZ001>006.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ230-236-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 050843
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
343 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT STALLING OFFSHORE WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LOW PRESSURE
TO TRAVEL ALONG AFTER SUNRISE. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL DELIVER A
MIX OF RAIN CHANGING TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A WEAK
COLD FRONT SUNDAY MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS. A COMPLEX COASTAL STORM
SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
130 AM UPDATE...

*** WESTWARD TREND IN THE SYSTEM HAS ALLOWED FOR WARNINGS AND
 ADVISORIES TO BE EXPANDED ***

BUSY EVENING AS WE CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE LATEST DATA AND TREND
FOR THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM. PRECIP SHIELD CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD
AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH STRENGTHENS. GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL
INTO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR PWATS TO BE CLOSE TO AN INCH. BIGGEST
TREND BETWEEN THE 12Z AND 00Z RUNS IS THAT THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
ITS WESTWARD TREND. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN EXACTLY SWITCH
OVER WILL TAKE PLACE FROM RAIN TO SNOW...BUT HAVE RECEIVED A FEW
REPORTS IN WORCESTER AND DUAL-POL RADAR IS ALSO SHOWING A MIX OR
WEST SNOW ACROSS WINDHAM COUNTY THANKS TO THE HEAVIER ECHOS.

P-TYPE AND CHANGE OVER TIMING...

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT
AND INTO TOMORROW AS COASTAL LOW MOVES ALONG STALLED COLD FRONT.
THIS PRECIP SHIED WILL EXPAND FARTHER WESTWARD THEN ORIGINALLY
FORECAST...WHICH IS THE LATEST TREND IN ALL OF THE GUIDANCE. STILL
SOME QUESTIONS ON THE EXACT TIMING OF CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO
SNOW. A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY REPORTED SOME SLEET OR SNOW
MIXING IN. SOUNDINGS AND SOME HI- RES GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL CHANGE OVER AROUND 7-9Z.
WHILE THE REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL MASS AND CT WILL CHANGE
CLOSE TO 10-11Z. AGREE WITH THE TIMES HEAVIER BANDS OF PRECIP
SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH AND WILL DRAG THE COOLER AIR ALOFT DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. VERY CONCERNED ABOUT THE MORNING COMMUTE FOR MANY
AREAS WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHERE HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE
FALLING. ANTICIPATE THE CHANGE OVER TO MAKE IT TO SOUTHEASTERN
MASS INCLUDING BOS AND PVD CLOSER TO THE 6-8 AM HOUR. THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER AS CAA WILL TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO
REACH THEM. FEEL IT WILL BE CLOSER TO 10AM-NOON. ALTHOUGH SLEET
MAY MIX IN DURING THE TRANSITION...BELIEVE MANY LOCATIONS WILL
SWITCH FROM RAIN TO STRAIGHT SNOW.

QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...

HAVE ADJUSTED THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SOME OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
GENERALLY BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WARNING WILL GET AT
LEAST A SLOPPY 5-7 INCHES OF SNOW. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HILLS WITHIN
TOLLAND...WINDHAM...WORCESTER AND PROVIDENCE COUNTIES. MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT FOR QPF. THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS AND THERMAL PROFILES. BELIEVE WE HAVE A GOOD
TREND GOING AT THIS TIME. SOME AREAS IN QUESTION WHICH COULD BE
UPGRADED WITHIN THE WARNING IS SOUTHERN BRISTOL AND PLYMOUTH
COUNTIES. HOWEVER THESE LOCATIONS MAY BE STUCK IN THE MIX LONGER
KEEPING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOW. ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT THE EAST SLOPE
OF THE BERKSHIRES. FIRST RUN AT THE SNOW AMOUNTS BUT THEM CLOSE TO
3 INCHES. HOWEVER BEING ON THE EDGE...DRY AIR MAY ERODE THE
PRECIP SHIELD AND LIMIT HOW MUCH TRULY FALLS ON THEM. WILL HAVE TO
CONTINUE TO WATCH. ALSO THE PIONEER AND CONNECTICUT VALLEY MAY SEE
LOWER AMOUNTS AS WELL THANKS TO SHADOWING. SO EVEN THOUGH SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE OUT...THERE STILL COULD BE SOME CHANGES THANKS TO SOME
MESOSCALE ISSUES.

IMPACTS...

DUE TO THE FACT THAT SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LOW WITH THIS STORM...AND
BANDING WITH 1+ INCH/HR RATES ARE POSSIBLE...HEAVY WET SNOW MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES. THIS WILL BE EXACERBATED BY A LLJ
AROUND 40 KT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN SOME OF IT/S MOMENTUM.
THEREFORE...THE COMBINATION OF WIND GUSTS 30-40 MPH AND HEAVY WET
SNOW MAY INCREASE THE RISK.

THE OTHER PRIMARY IMPACT IS THAT THE CHANGE-OVER AND HEAVIEST
PRECIP/SNOW WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THE PEAK HOURS OF THE AM
COMMUTE...WITH LOCALIZED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /1 PM THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
THE MORE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM IN RELATION TO PREVIOUS
PROGS SUGGEST A SLOWER END AS WELL. ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL BE DRYING THE LOW LEVELS...SO THERE COULD BE A LITTLE BIT OF
SNOW LEFTOVER MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN MA BEFORE THINGS
END BY EARLY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

BIG PICTURE...

LONGWAVE SCALE CONTINUES TO SHOW BUIDLING RIDGE IN THE WEST AND
DIGGING TROUGH IN THE EAST...POINTING TO WARM TREND WEST AND COOLING
EAST. SMALLER SCALE CONTINUES TO SHOW A THREE-RING CIRCUS OF
SHORTWAVES EITHER AFFECTING OR WITH POTENTIAL TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE WITH TWO
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY
WHERE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVES COULD OCCUR.

MODEL MASS FIELDS ARE SIMILAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS ALSO AGREE
ON TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS...ONE WELL OFFSHORE MONDAY AND A SECOND CLOSE
TO SHORE TUESDAY. BUT ALL SHOW DIFFERING SCENARIOS FOR HOW THESE
SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BEST CONFIDENCE IN
HANDLING THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEMS IS WITH THE GEFS /ENSEMBLES/

THE DAILIES...

TONIGHT-SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COASTAL LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH NOVA SCOTIA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN USA.  EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES. CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WIND OVER FRESH SNOW COVER
MAY LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS TONIGHT THAN INDICATED BY GUIDENCE. WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT...WE BUMPED
GUIDENCE DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES.  ON SATURDAY WITH WINDS ALOFT
SHIFTING SOUTHWEST...THE MIXED LAYER SHOULD REACH AROUND 950 MB.
TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S.

SUNDAY...MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
CROSS THE NORTHEAST USA. THE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY WHILE THE ECMWF SEEMS TO LOSE THE FRONT
IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIMITED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS SUGGEST JUST
A FEW CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM QUEBEC
INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER
40S. THE COLDER AIR ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING MIN TEMPS
ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...GENERATES A
SURFACE LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST USA COAST. THIS COASTAL LOW THEN MOVES
NORTHEAST AND PASSES WELL OFFSHORE OF OUR AREA. NORMALLY THIS PATH
WOULD KEEP PCPN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER WITH THE HIGH TO THE NORTH WE
COULD DEVELOP SUFFICIENT MARINE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE TO BRING
CLOUDS AND PCPN MONDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW...BUT WITH POTENTIAL RAIN/SNOW
MIX NEAR THE COAST.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ASHORE FROM THE PACIFIC TONIGHT AND CROSSES
TO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKNED. THIS DIGS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE MIDWEST AND LEADS TO COASTAL LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW THEN MOVES UP THE COAST
TUESDAY AND PASSES OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND. EACH MODEL HANDLES THIS
COASTAL LOW DIFFERENTLY...SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION IS LOW.
CONFIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
FEET-DRY ON THE PACIFIC COAST.

BEST DYNAMICS UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET
MOVES OFF TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...SO BEST CHANCE
OF PCPN SHOULD BE ON TUESDAY THEN DIMINISH TO SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. PTYPE AGAIN FAVORS SNOW INLAND AND SNOW OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG THE COAST.

UPPER TROUGH/COLD POOL FROM THE MIDWEST LINGERS OVER THE NORTHEAST
USA THROUGH THURSDAY MAINTAINING SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

THROUGH 18Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THE RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO
EXPAND NORTHWEST...COVERING MOST OF SRN NEW ENGLAND BY ABOUT
10-12Z. THIS WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW
CIGS/VSBYS. THEN...AFTER 09Z ESPECIALLY THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO
SNOW FROM NW- SE UNTIL IT/S ALL SNOW AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS BY
ABOUT 16Z. SOME ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY
SFCS. HOWEVER RUNWAYS MAY RECEIVE A PLOWABLE AMOUNT MAINLY E OF AN
IJD- ORH-BVY LINE. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY IFR
CONDITIONS.

AFTER 18Z TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SNOWS/RAIN COME TO AN END AND VERY QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF PRECIP AND CHANGE TO SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
PRECIP TIMING.

OUTLOOK...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW OR
RAIN/SNOW MIX. NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 20-30 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TONIGHT...
WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT MAINLY TO THE N THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT WITH
BOTH SEAS AND GUSTS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. THEREFORE...LEFTOVER
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE DROPPED BUT IN FAVOR OF A GALE
WARNING...MORE ON THAT BELOW.

TOMORROW...
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS PICK UP THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KT ALONG THE SOUTHERN WATERS...AND 35-45 KT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. SEAS BECOME HIGH...MAINLY 8-10 FT ON THE SE OCEAN WATERS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN/FOG ACROSS THE WATERS WITH A
POSSIBLE CHANGE TO SNOW NEAR THE EASTERN SHORELINES.

OUTLOOK...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...

TONIGHT...DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 30 KNOTS EARLY AND
POPPING UNDER 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS AS HIGH AS 14 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT TO 5-7 FEET BY MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR MOST WATERS DURING THE
NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY BELOW 25 KNOTS BUT
GUSTING NEAR 25 KNOTS EAST OF CAPE ANN SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS
DIMINSISH SATURDAY BUT THEN RETURN TO NEAR 5 FEET EAST OF CAPE ANN
SATURDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY BUT WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...NORTH WINDS TURN NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO AT LEAST
NEAR 30 KNOTS EACH DAY. DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL BEHAVIOR OF THE
TWO COASTAL LOW PRESSURE AREAS PASSING BY...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
WINDS TO REACH 35-40 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR GALES AT
THIS TIME...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE. WINDS TURN BACK TO NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ003-
     004.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CTZ002.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ019>022.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ004>007-012>018-026.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ002-003-008>011.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ007.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     RIZ001>006.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ230-236-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 050843
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
343 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT STALLING OFFSHORE WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LOW PRESSURE
TO TRAVEL ALONG AFTER SUNRISE. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL DELIVER A
MIX OF RAIN CHANGING TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A WEAK
COLD FRONT SUNDAY MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS. A COMPLEX COASTAL STORM
SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
130 AM UPDATE...

*** WESTWARD TREND IN THE SYSTEM HAS ALLOWED FOR WARNINGS AND
 ADVISORIES TO BE EXPANDED ***

BUSY EVENING AS WE CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE LATEST DATA AND TREND
FOR THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM. PRECIP SHIELD CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD
AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH STRENGTHENS. GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL
INTO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR PWATS TO BE CLOSE TO AN INCH. BIGGEST
TREND BETWEEN THE 12Z AND 00Z RUNS IS THAT THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
ITS WESTWARD TREND. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN EXACTLY SWITCH
OVER WILL TAKE PLACE FROM RAIN TO SNOW...BUT HAVE RECEIVED A FEW
REPORTS IN WORCESTER AND DUAL-POL RADAR IS ALSO SHOWING A MIX OR
WEST SNOW ACROSS WINDHAM COUNTY THANKS TO THE HEAVIER ECHOS.

P-TYPE AND CHANGE OVER TIMING...

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT
AND INTO TOMORROW AS COASTAL LOW MOVES ALONG STALLED COLD FRONT.
THIS PRECIP SHIED WILL EXPAND FARTHER WESTWARD THEN ORIGINALLY
FORECAST...WHICH IS THE LATEST TREND IN ALL OF THE GUIDANCE. STILL
SOME QUESTIONS ON THE EXACT TIMING OF CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO
SNOW. A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY REPORTED SOME SLEET OR SNOW
MIXING IN. SOUNDINGS AND SOME HI- RES GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL CHANGE OVER AROUND 7-9Z.
WHILE THE REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL MASS AND CT WILL CHANGE
CLOSE TO 10-11Z. AGREE WITH THE TIMES HEAVIER BANDS OF PRECIP
SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH AND WILL DRAG THE COOLER AIR ALOFT DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. VERY CONCERNED ABOUT THE MORNING COMMUTE FOR MANY
AREAS WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHERE HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE
FALLING. ANTICIPATE THE CHANGE OVER TO MAKE IT TO SOUTHEASTERN
MASS INCLUDING BOS AND PVD CLOSER TO THE 6-8 AM HOUR. THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER AS CAA WILL TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO
REACH THEM. FEEL IT WILL BE CLOSER TO 10AM-NOON. ALTHOUGH SLEET
MAY MIX IN DURING THE TRANSITION...BELIEVE MANY LOCATIONS WILL
SWITCH FROM RAIN TO STRAIGHT SNOW.

QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...

HAVE ADJUSTED THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SOME OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
GENERALLY BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WARNING WILL GET AT
LEAST A SLOPPY 5-7 INCHES OF SNOW. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HILLS WITHIN
TOLLAND...WINDHAM...WORCESTER AND PROVIDENCE COUNTIES. MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT FOR QPF. THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS AND THERMAL PROFILES. BELIEVE WE HAVE A GOOD
TREND GOING AT THIS TIME. SOME AREAS IN QUESTION WHICH COULD BE
UPGRADED WITHIN THE WARNING IS SOUTHERN BRISTOL AND PLYMOUTH
COUNTIES. HOWEVER THESE LOCATIONS MAY BE STUCK IN THE MIX LONGER
KEEPING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOW. ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT THE EAST SLOPE
OF THE BERKSHIRES. FIRST RUN AT THE SNOW AMOUNTS BUT THEM CLOSE TO
3 INCHES. HOWEVER BEING ON THE EDGE...DRY AIR MAY ERODE THE
PRECIP SHIELD AND LIMIT HOW MUCH TRULY FALLS ON THEM. WILL HAVE TO
CONTINUE TO WATCH. ALSO THE PIONEER AND CONNECTICUT VALLEY MAY SEE
LOWER AMOUNTS AS WELL THANKS TO SHADOWING. SO EVEN THOUGH SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE OUT...THERE STILL COULD BE SOME CHANGES THANKS TO SOME
MESOSCALE ISSUES.

IMPACTS...

DUE TO THE FACT THAT SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LOW WITH THIS STORM...AND
BANDING WITH 1+ INCH/HR RATES ARE POSSIBLE...HEAVY WET SNOW MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES. THIS WILL BE EXACERBATED BY A LLJ
AROUND 40 KT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN SOME OF IT/S MOMENTUM.
THEREFORE...THE COMBINATION OF WIND GUSTS 30-40 MPH AND HEAVY WET
SNOW MAY INCREASE THE RISK.

THE OTHER PRIMARY IMPACT IS THAT THE CHANGE-OVER AND HEAVIEST
PRECIP/SNOW WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THE PEAK HOURS OF THE AM
COMMUTE...WITH LOCALIZED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /1 PM THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
THE MORE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM IN RELATION TO PREVIOUS
PROGS SUGGEST A SLOWER END AS WELL. ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL BE DRYING THE LOW LEVELS...SO THERE COULD BE A LITTLE BIT OF
SNOW LEFTOVER MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN MA BEFORE THINGS
END BY EARLY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

BIG PICTURE...

LONGWAVE SCALE CONTINUES TO SHOW BUIDLING RIDGE IN THE WEST AND
DIGGING TROUGH IN THE EAST...POINTING TO WARM TREND WEST AND COOLING
EAST. SMALLER SCALE CONTINUES TO SHOW A THREE-RING CIRCUS OF
SHORTWAVES EITHER AFFECTING OR WITH POTENTIAL TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE WITH TWO
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY
WHERE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVES COULD OCCUR.

MODEL MASS FIELDS ARE SIMILAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS ALSO AGREE
ON TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS...ONE WELL OFFSHORE MONDAY AND A SECOND CLOSE
TO SHORE TUESDAY. BUT ALL SHOW DIFFERING SCENARIOS FOR HOW THESE
SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BEST CONFIDENCE IN
HANDLING THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEMS IS WITH THE GEFS /ENSEMBLES/

THE DAILIES...

TONIGHT-SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COASTAL LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH NOVA SCOTIA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN USA.  EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES. CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WIND OVER FRESH SNOW COVER
MAY LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS TONIGHT THAN INDICATED BY GUIDENCE. WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT...WE BUMPED
GUIDENCE DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES.  ON SATURDAY WITH WINDS ALOFT
SHIFTING SOUTHWEST...THE MIXED LAYER SHOULD REACH AROUND 950 MB.
TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S.

SUNDAY...MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
CROSS THE NORTHEAST USA. THE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY WHILE THE ECMWF SEEMS TO LOSE THE FRONT
IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIMITED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS SUGGEST JUST
A FEW CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM QUEBEC
INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER
40S. THE COLDER AIR ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING MIN TEMPS
ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...GENERATES A
SURFACE LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST USA COAST. THIS COASTAL LOW THEN MOVES
NORTHEAST AND PASSES WELL OFFSHORE OF OUR AREA. NORMALLY THIS PATH
WOULD KEEP PCPN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER WITH THE HIGH TO THE NORTH WE
COULD DEVELOP SUFFICIENT MARINE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MAINE TO BRING
CLOUDS AND PCPN MONDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW...BUT WITH POTENTIAL RAIN/SNOW
MIX NEAR THE COAST.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ASHORE FROM THE PACIFIC TONIGHT AND CROSSES
TO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKNED. THIS DIGS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE MIDWEST AND LEADS TO COASTAL LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW THEN MOVES UP THE COAST
TUESDAY AND PASSES OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND. EACH MODEL HANDLES THIS
COASTAL LOW DIFFERENTLY...SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION IS LOW.
CONFIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
FEET-DRY ON THE PACIFIC COAST.

BEST DYNAMICS UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER JET
MOVES OFF TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...SO BEST CHANCE
OF PCPN SHOULD BE ON TUESDAY THEN DIMINISH TO SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. PTYPE AGAIN FAVORS SNOW INLAND AND SNOW OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG THE COAST.

UPPER TROUGH/COLD POOL FROM THE MIDWEST LINGERS OVER THE NORTHEAST
USA THROUGH THURSDAY MAINTAINING SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

THROUGH 18Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THE RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO
EXPAND NORTHWEST...COVERING MOST OF SRN NEW ENGLAND BY ABOUT
10-12Z. THIS WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW
CIGS/VSBYS. THEN...AFTER 09Z ESPECIALLY THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO
SNOW FROM NW- SE UNTIL IT/S ALL SNOW AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS BY
ABOUT 16Z. SOME ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY
SFCS. HOWEVER RUNWAYS MAY RECEIVE A PLOWABLE AMOUNT MAINLY E OF AN
IJD- ORH-BVY LINE. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY IFR
CONDITIONS.

AFTER 18Z TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SNOWS/RAIN COME TO AN END AND VERY QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF PRECIP AND CHANGE TO SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
PRECIP TIMING.

OUTLOOK...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW OR
RAIN/SNOW MIX. NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 20-30 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TONIGHT...
WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT MAINLY TO THE N THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT WITH
BOTH SEAS AND GUSTS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. THEREFORE...LEFTOVER
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE DROPPED BUT IN FAVOR OF A GALE
WARNING...MORE ON THAT BELOW.

TOMORROW...
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS PICK UP THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KT ALONG THE SOUTHERN WATERS...AND 35-45 KT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. SEAS BECOME HIGH...MAINLY 8-10 FT ON THE SE OCEAN WATERS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN/FOG ACROSS THE WATERS WITH A
POSSIBLE CHANGE TO SNOW NEAR THE EASTERN SHORELINES.

OUTLOOK...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...

TONIGHT...DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 30 KNOTS EARLY AND
POPPING UNDER 25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS AS HIGH AS 14 FEET ON
THE OUTER WATERS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT TO 5-7 FEET BY MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR MOST WATERS DURING THE
NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY BELOW 25 KNOTS BUT
GUSTING NEAR 25 KNOTS EAST OF CAPE ANN SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS
DIMINSISH SATURDAY BUT THEN RETURN TO NEAR 5 FEET EAST OF CAPE ANN
SATURDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY BUT WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...NORTH WINDS TURN NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO AT LEAST
NEAR 30 KNOTS EACH DAY. DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL BEHAVIOR OF THE
TWO COASTAL LOW PRESSURE AREAS PASSING BY...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
WINDS TO REACH 35-40 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR GALES AT
THIS TIME...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE. WINDS TURN BACK TO NORTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ003-
     004.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CTZ002.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ019>022.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ004>007-012>018-026.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ002-003-008>011.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ007.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     RIZ001>006.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ230-236-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 050630
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
130 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT STALLING OFFSHORE WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LOW PRESSURE
TO TRAVEL ALONG EARLY TOMORROW. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL DELIVER A
MIX OF RAIN CHANGING TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A WEAK
COLD FRONT SUNDAY MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS. A COMPLEX COASTAL STORM
SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...

130 AM UPDATE...

*** WESTWARD TREND IN THE SYSTEM HAS ALLOWED FOR WARNINGS AND
 ADVISORIES TO BE EXPANDED ***

BUSY EVENING AS WE CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE LATEST DATA AND TREND
FOR THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM. PRECIP SHIELD CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD
AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH STRENGTHENS. GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL
INTO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR PWATS TO BE CLOSE TO AN INCH. BIGGEST
TREND BETWEEN THE 12Z AND 00Z RUNS IS THAT THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
ITS WESTWARD TREND. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN EXACTLY SWITCH
OVER WILL TAKE PLACE FROM RAIN TO SNOW...BUT HAVE RECEIVED A FEW
REPORTS IN WORCESTER AND DUAL-POL RADAR IS ALSO SHOWING A MIX OR
WEST SNOW ACROSS WINDHAM COUNTY THANKS TO THE HEAVIER ECHOS.

P-TYPE AND CHANGE OVER TIMING...

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT
AND INTO TOMORROW AS COASTAL LOW MOVES ALONG STALLED COLD FRONT.
THIS PRECIP SHIED WILL EXPAND FARTHER WESTWARD THEN ORIGINALLY
FORECAST...WHICH IS THE LATEST TREND IN ALL OF THE GUIDANCE. STILL
SOME QUESTIONS ON THE EXACT TIMING OF CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO
SNOW. A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY REPORTED SOME SLEET OR SNOW
MIXING IN. SOUNDINGS AND SOME HI- RES GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL CHANGE OVER AROUND 7-9Z.
WHILE THE REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL MASS AND CT WILL CHANGE
CLOSE TO 10-11Z. AGREE WITH THE TIMES HEAVIER BANDS OF PRECIP
SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH AND WILL DRAG THE COOLER AIR ALOFT DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. VERY CONCERNED ABOUT THE MORNING COMMUTE FOR MANY
AREAS WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHERE HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE
FALLING. ANTICIPATE THE CHANGE OVER TO MAKE IT TO SOUTHEASTERN
MASS INCLUDING BOS AND PVD CLOSER TO THE 6-8 AM HOUR. THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER AS CAA WILL TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO
REACH THEM. FEEL IT WILL BE CLOSER TO 10AM-NOON. ALTHOUGH SLEET
MAY MIX IN DURING THE TRANSITION...BELIEVE MANY LOCATIONS WILL
SWITCH FROM RAIN TO STRAIGHT SNOW.

QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...

HAVE ADJUSTED THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SOME OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
GENERALLY BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WARNING WILL GET AT
LEAST A SLOPPY 5-7 INCHES OF SNOW. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HILLS WITHIN
TOLLAND...WINDHAM...WORCESTER AND PROVIDENCE COUNTIES. MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT FOR QPF. THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS AND THERMAL PROFILES. BELIEVE WE HAVE A GOOD
TREND GOING AT THIS TIME. SOME AREAS IN QUESTION WHICH COULD BE
UPGRADED WITHIN THE WARNING IS SOUTHERN BRISTOL AND PLYMOUTH
COUNTIES. HOWEVER THESE LOCATIONS MAY BE STUCK IN THE MIX LONGER
KEEPING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOW. ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT THE EAST SLOPE
OF THE BERKSHIRES. FIRST RUN AT THE SNOW AMOUNTS BUT THEM CLOSE TO
3 INCHES. HOWEVER BEING ON THE EDGE...DRY AIR MAY ERODE THE
PRECIP SHIELD AND LIMIT HOW MUCH TRULY FALLS ON THEM. WILL HAVE TO
CONTINUE TO WATCH. ALSO THE PIONEER AND CONNECTICUT VALLEY MAY SEE
LOWER AMOUNTS AS WELL THANKS TO SHADOWING. SO EVEN THOUGH SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE OUT...THERE STILL COULD BE SOME CHANGES THANKS TO SOME
MESOSCALE ISSUES.

IMPACTS...

DUE TO THE FACT THAT SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LOW WITH THIS STORM...AND
BANDING WITH 1+ INCH/HR RATES ARE POSSIBLE...HEAVY WET SNOW MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES. THIS WILL BE EXACERBATED BY A LLJ
AROUND 40 KT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN SOME OF IT/S MOMENTUM.
THEREFORE...THE COMBINATION OF WIND GUSTS 30-40 MPH AND HEAVY WET
SNOW MAY INCREASE THE RISK.

THE OTHER PRIMARY IMPACT IS THAT THE CHANGE-OVER AND HEAVIEST
PRECIP/SNOW WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THE PEAK HOURS OF THE AM
COMMUTE...WITH LOCALIZED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /1 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...


THE MORE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM IN RELATION TO PREVIOUS
PROGS SUGGEST A SLOWER END AS WELL. ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL BE DRYING THE LOW LEVELS...SO THERE COULD BE A LITTLE BIT OF
SNOW LEFTOVER MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN MA BEFORE THINGS
END BY EARLY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND
* ANOTHER COASTAL STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY OR TUESDAY
* DRY WEATHER RETURNS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL
SWING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY...BUT THE
BEST DYNAMICS/MOISTURE REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO OUR N THAT WE SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO OUR
REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH SETS STAGE FOR POTENTIALLY STORMY
WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE STORM POTENTIAL FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STORM OCCURRING DURING THIS
TIME FRAME BUT DIFFER ON HOW THEY HANDLE THE STORM. EXPECT THIS
STORM TO COME MORE INTO FOCUS IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE
SHORTWAVES MOVE ON TO THE WEST COAST AND ARE BETTER SAMPLED.  HAVE
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SOME SORT OF STORM OCCURRING DURING THIS TIME
FRAME.  HOWEVER...THE DETAILS ARE STILL VERY UNCERTAIN.

12Z ECMWF PRODUCES TWO COASTAL STORMS...ONE OF WHICH WILL PASS WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK ON MONDAY /WITH LITTLE EFFECT ON SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND/...AND THE SECOND OF WHICH PASSES DIRECTLY OVER THE
BENCHMARK ON TUESDAY.  12Z GFS PRODUCES A SINGLE COASTAL SYSTEM THAT
DEVELOPS OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA AND MOVES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TUESDAY.  THIS WOULD RESULT IN WIDELY DIFFERENT TEMPERATURE PROFILES
THAN THE ECMWF.  DUE TO THE WIDE VARIATIONS IN THESE DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS...WE ARE BASING FORECAST MORE ON ENSEMBLES AND WILL
UTILIZE CONSENSUS BLEND TO WORK OUT DETAILS FOR NOW.

THIS RESULTS IN SNOW DEVELOPING LATE MON INTO TUE...BUT DESPITE COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WE WILL PROBABLY BE DEALING WITH WARMTH IN
BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH WILL GIVE US ISSUES WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX OR EVEN
RAIN...PRIMARILY FROM PROVIDENCE AND BOSTON TO CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.
SETUP RIGHT NOW FAVORS HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS INTERIOR...BUT
AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND THERE COULD BE SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS
TO FORECAST IN COMING DAYS.

FOR NOW...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE BUT WE NEED TO SEE HOW THESE TWO
SHORT WAVES EVOLVE AS THEY ENTER WEST COAST AND WORK THEIR WAY
ACROSS COUNTRY.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
AGAIN MODEL SPREAD IS HIGH AT THIS TIME RANGE GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN
HOW MON/TUE EVOLVES. BUT WE DO EXPECT TO SEE DRYING IN WAKE OF
SYSTEM WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WHILE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON HOW THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM PLAYS
OUT...THERE IS AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS ON HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  EXPECT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THROUGH 18Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THE RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO
EXPAND NORTHWEST...COVERING MOST OF SRN NEW ENGLAND BY ABOUT
10-12Z. THIS WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW
CIGS/VSBYS. THEN...AFTER 09Z ESPECIALLY THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO
SNOW FROM NW- SE UNTIL IT/S ALL SNOW AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS BY
ABOUT 16Z. SOME ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY
SFCS. HOWEVER RUNWAYS MAY RECEIVE A PLOWABLE AMOUNT MAINLY E OF AN
IJD- ORH-BVY LINE. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY IFR
CONDITIONS.

AFTER 18Z TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SNOWS/RAIN COME TO AN END AND VERY QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF PRECIP AND CHANGE TO SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
PRECIP TIMING.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN OR
SNOW...ESPECIALLY LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TONIGHT...
WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT MAINLY TO THE N THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT WITH
BOTH SEAS AND GUSTS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. THEREFORE...LEFTOVER
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE DROPPED BUT IN FAVOR OF A GALE
WARNING...MORE ON THAT BELOW.

TOMORROW...
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS PICK UP THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KT ALONG THE SOUTHERN WATERS...AND 35-45 KT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. SEAS BECOME HIGH...MAINLY 8-10 FT ON THE SE OCEAN WATERS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN/FOG ACROSS THE WATERS WITH A
POSSIBLE CHANGE TO SNOW NEAR THE EASTERN SHORELINES.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD OVER THE WATERS.  SCA LIKELY NEEDED FOR
LINGERING SEAS.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS MAINLY
BELOW SCA. LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS SATURDAY MORNING.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. EXPECT INCREASING N/NE WINDS
AHEAD OF COASTAL LOW. SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH 25-30KT GUSTS AND
SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT OR HIGHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ003-
     004.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CTZ002.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ019>022.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ004>007-012>018-026.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ003-010-011.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ007.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     RIZ001>006.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ230-236-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/RLG
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...DUNTEN/RLG
MARINE...DOODY/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 050630
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
130 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT STALLING OFFSHORE WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LOW PRESSURE
TO TRAVEL ALONG EARLY TOMORROW. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL DELIVER A
MIX OF RAIN CHANGING TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A WEAK
COLD FRONT SUNDAY MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS. A COMPLEX COASTAL STORM
SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...

130 AM UPDATE...

*** WESTWARD TREND IN THE SYSTEM HAS ALLOWED FOR WARNINGS AND
 ADVISORIES TO BE EXPANDED ***

BUSY EVENING AS WE CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE LATEST DATA AND TREND
FOR THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM. PRECIP SHIELD CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD
AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH STRENGTHENS. GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL
INTO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR PWATS TO BE CLOSE TO AN INCH. BIGGEST
TREND BETWEEN THE 12Z AND 00Z RUNS IS THAT THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
ITS WESTWARD TREND. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN EXACTLY SWITCH
OVER WILL TAKE PLACE FROM RAIN TO SNOW...BUT HAVE RECEIVED A FEW
REPORTS IN WORCESTER AND DUAL-POL RADAR IS ALSO SHOWING A MIX OR
WEST SNOW ACROSS WINDHAM COUNTY THANKS TO THE HEAVIER ECHOS.

P-TYPE AND CHANGE OVER TIMING...

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT
AND INTO TOMORROW AS COASTAL LOW MOVES ALONG STALLED COLD FRONT.
THIS PRECIP SHIED WILL EXPAND FARTHER WESTWARD THEN ORIGINALLY
FORECAST...WHICH IS THE LATEST TREND IN ALL OF THE GUIDANCE. STILL
SOME QUESTIONS ON THE EXACT TIMING OF CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO
SNOW. A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY REPORTED SOME SLEET OR SNOW
MIXING IN. SOUNDINGS AND SOME HI- RES GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL CHANGE OVER AROUND 7-9Z.
WHILE THE REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL MASS AND CT WILL CHANGE
CLOSE TO 10-11Z. AGREE WITH THE TIMES HEAVIER BANDS OF PRECIP
SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH AND WILL DRAG THE COOLER AIR ALOFT DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. VERY CONCERNED ABOUT THE MORNING COMMUTE FOR MANY
AREAS WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHERE HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE
FALLING. ANTICIPATE THE CHANGE OVER TO MAKE IT TO SOUTHEASTERN
MASS INCLUDING BOS AND PVD CLOSER TO THE 6-8 AM HOUR. THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER AS CAA WILL TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO
REACH THEM. FEEL IT WILL BE CLOSER TO 10AM-NOON. ALTHOUGH SLEET
MAY MIX IN DURING THE TRANSITION...BELIEVE MANY LOCATIONS WILL
SWITCH FROM RAIN TO STRAIGHT SNOW.

QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...

HAVE ADJUSTED THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SOME OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
GENERALLY BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WARNING WILL GET AT
LEAST A SLOPPY 5-7 INCHES OF SNOW. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HILLS WITHIN
TOLLAND...WINDHAM...WORCESTER AND PROVIDENCE COUNTIES. MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT FOR QPF. THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS AND THERMAL PROFILES. BELIEVE WE HAVE A GOOD
TREND GOING AT THIS TIME. SOME AREAS IN QUESTION WHICH COULD BE
UPGRADED WITHIN THE WARNING IS SOUTHERN BRISTOL AND PLYMOUTH
COUNTIES. HOWEVER THESE LOCATIONS MAY BE STUCK IN THE MIX LONGER
KEEPING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOW. ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT THE EAST SLOPE
OF THE BERKSHIRES. FIRST RUN AT THE SNOW AMOUNTS BUT THEM CLOSE TO
3 INCHES. HOWEVER BEING ON THE EDGE...DRY AIR MAY ERODE THE
PRECIP SHIELD AND LIMIT HOW MUCH TRULY FALLS ON THEM. WILL HAVE TO
CONTINUE TO WATCH. ALSO THE PIONEER AND CONNECTICUT VALLEY MAY SEE
LOWER AMOUNTS AS WELL THANKS TO SHADOWING. SO EVEN THOUGH SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE OUT...THERE STILL COULD BE SOME CHANGES THANKS TO SOME
MESOSCALE ISSUES.

IMPACTS...

DUE TO THE FACT THAT SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LOW WITH THIS STORM...AND
BANDING WITH 1+ INCH/HR RATES ARE POSSIBLE...HEAVY WET SNOW MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES. THIS WILL BE EXACERBATED BY A LLJ
AROUND 40 KT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN SOME OF IT/S MOMENTUM.
THEREFORE...THE COMBINATION OF WIND GUSTS 30-40 MPH AND HEAVY WET
SNOW MAY INCREASE THE RISK.

THE OTHER PRIMARY IMPACT IS THAT THE CHANGE-OVER AND HEAVIEST
PRECIP/SNOW WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THE PEAK HOURS OF THE AM
COMMUTE...WITH LOCALIZED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /1 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...


THE MORE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM IN RELATION TO PREVIOUS
PROGS SUGGEST A SLOWER END AS WELL. ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL BE DRYING THE LOW LEVELS...SO THERE COULD BE A LITTLE BIT OF
SNOW LEFTOVER MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN MA BEFORE THINGS
END BY EARLY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND
* ANOTHER COASTAL STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY OR TUESDAY
* DRY WEATHER RETURNS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL
SWING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY...BUT THE
BEST DYNAMICS/MOISTURE REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO OUR N THAT WE SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO OUR
REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH SETS STAGE FOR POTENTIALLY STORMY
WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE STORM POTENTIAL FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STORM OCCURRING DURING THIS
TIME FRAME BUT DIFFER ON HOW THEY HANDLE THE STORM. EXPECT THIS
STORM TO COME MORE INTO FOCUS IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE
SHORTWAVES MOVE ON TO THE WEST COAST AND ARE BETTER SAMPLED.  HAVE
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SOME SORT OF STORM OCCURRING DURING THIS TIME
FRAME.  HOWEVER...THE DETAILS ARE STILL VERY UNCERTAIN.

12Z ECMWF PRODUCES TWO COASTAL STORMS...ONE OF WHICH WILL PASS WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK ON MONDAY /WITH LITTLE EFFECT ON SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND/...AND THE SECOND OF WHICH PASSES DIRECTLY OVER THE
BENCHMARK ON TUESDAY.  12Z GFS PRODUCES A SINGLE COASTAL SYSTEM THAT
DEVELOPS OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA AND MOVES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TUESDAY.  THIS WOULD RESULT IN WIDELY DIFFERENT TEMPERATURE PROFILES
THAN THE ECMWF.  DUE TO THE WIDE VARIATIONS IN THESE DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS...WE ARE BASING FORECAST MORE ON ENSEMBLES AND WILL
UTILIZE CONSENSUS BLEND TO WORK OUT DETAILS FOR NOW.

THIS RESULTS IN SNOW DEVELOPING LATE MON INTO TUE...BUT DESPITE COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WE WILL PROBABLY BE DEALING WITH WARMTH IN
BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH WILL GIVE US ISSUES WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX OR EVEN
RAIN...PRIMARILY FROM PROVIDENCE AND BOSTON TO CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.
SETUP RIGHT NOW FAVORS HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS INTERIOR...BUT
AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND THERE COULD BE SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS
TO FORECAST IN COMING DAYS.

FOR NOW...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE BUT WE NEED TO SEE HOW THESE TWO
SHORT WAVES EVOLVE AS THEY ENTER WEST COAST AND WORK THEIR WAY
ACROSS COUNTRY.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
AGAIN MODEL SPREAD IS HIGH AT THIS TIME RANGE GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN
HOW MON/TUE EVOLVES. BUT WE DO EXPECT TO SEE DRYING IN WAKE OF
SYSTEM WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WHILE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON HOW THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM PLAYS
OUT...THERE IS AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS ON HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  EXPECT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THROUGH 18Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THE RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO
EXPAND NORTHWEST...COVERING MOST OF SRN NEW ENGLAND BY ABOUT
10-12Z. THIS WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW
CIGS/VSBYS. THEN...AFTER 09Z ESPECIALLY THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO
SNOW FROM NW- SE UNTIL IT/S ALL SNOW AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS BY
ABOUT 16Z. SOME ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY
SFCS. HOWEVER RUNWAYS MAY RECEIVE A PLOWABLE AMOUNT MAINLY E OF AN
IJD- ORH-BVY LINE. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY IFR
CONDITIONS.

AFTER 18Z TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SNOWS/RAIN COME TO AN END AND VERY QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF PRECIP AND CHANGE TO SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
PRECIP TIMING.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN OR
SNOW...ESPECIALLY LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TONIGHT...
WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT MAINLY TO THE N THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT WITH
BOTH SEAS AND GUSTS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. THEREFORE...LEFTOVER
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE DROPPED BUT IN FAVOR OF A GALE
WARNING...MORE ON THAT BELOW.

TOMORROW...
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS PICK UP THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KT ALONG THE SOUTHERN WATERS...AND 35-45 KT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. SEAS BECOME HIGH...MAINLY 8-10 FT ON THE SE OCEAN WATERS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN/FOG ACROSS THE WATERS WITH A
POSSIBLE CHANGE TO SNOW NEAR THE EASTERN SHORELINES.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD OVER THE WATERS.  SCA LIKELY NEEDED FOR
LINGERING SEAS.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS MAINLY
BELOW SCA. LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS SATURDAY MORNING.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. EXPECT INCREASING N/NE WINDS
AHEAD OF COASTAL LOW. SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH 25-30KT GUSTS AND
SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT OR HIGHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ003-
     004.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CTZ002.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ019>022.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ004>007-012>018-026.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ003-010-011.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ007.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     RIZ001>006.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ230-236-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/RLG
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...DUNTEN/RLG
MARINE...DOODY/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 050345
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1045 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT STALLING OFFSHORE WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LOW PRESSURE
TO TRAVEL ALONG EARLY TOMORROW. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL DELIVER A
MIX OF RAIN CHANGING TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A WEAK
COLD FRONT SUNDAY MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS. A COMPLEX COASTAL STORM
SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...

11 PM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST GENERALLY REMAINS ON TRACK. STILL
DIVING INTO THE LATEST 00Z DATA TO SEE IF CHANGES TO HEADLINES ARE
NEEDED. HOPEFULLY WILL BE ABLE TO GET SOMETHING OUT BEFORE THE 11
PM NEWS HOUR.

OTHERWISE BULK OF PRECIP IS BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD ACROSS
SOUTHERN CT AND RI. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE 40S SO NO P-TYPE
ISSUES AS OF NOW. TEMPS ARE BEGINNING TO FALL ACROSS THE NW AS AQW
IS DOWN TO 31 AND ORE IS DOWN TO 34.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...

*** WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR MUCH OF EASTERN MA...NORTHERN
 RI...AND NORTHEAST CT ***

*** WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR NORTHERN CT...SOUTHERN RI AND
 SOUTHEAST MA...AS WELL AS WESTERN MA.

OVERVIEW AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST...INCLUDING TIMING...
UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE WILL BE TAKING ON STRONG NEGATIVE TILT AS IT
APPROACHES THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH EQUATORWARD ENTRANCE REGION OF STRONG UPPER JET TO
DEVELOP COASTAL LOW PRES WAVE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
OFFSHORE. LATEST TRENDS ALL MAKE A MUCH CLOSER PASS WITH THIS WAVE
THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND GIVEN IT HAS A DIRECT CONNECTION TO
BAY OF CAMPECHE AND GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE...THE QPF FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD FURTHER W THAN PREVIOUS PROGS. QPF IS GENERALLY
WELL AGREED UPON AT THIS POINT...AT ODDS ARE THE LOW LVL THERMAL
PROFILES AND HOW QUICKLY/EFFICIENTLY THEY ARE ABLE TO COOL. WHILE
TIMING OF THE TROWAL OVERHEAD IS WELL AGREED UPON...WITH PRECIP
BEGINNING ALONG SE MA ROUND 10PM...THEN SPREADING NW THROUGH ABOUT
2-4AM. HOW QUICKLY IT CHANGES TO SNOW MAINLY AFTER 4AM IS THE
PRIMARY QUESTION. SFC WET-BULBS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW
30S...WHICH ARE MARGINAL. EXPECT GRADUAL CHANGE ACROSS WRN MA/CT
BETWEEN 2-5AM...CENTRAL...NORTHEAST MA AND RI BETWEEN 4 AM AND
7AM...THEN BETWEEN 7 AM AND MID-DAY FOR SE MA. THE TIMING WILL
HAVE MUCH TO DO WITH THE FINAL TOTALS...BUT GIVEN STRONG F-GEN
ABOUT H6 YIELDING LIFT WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH REGIME AROUND
H5...HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES COULD LEAD TO ENOUGH DYNAMIC COOLING TO
OVERCOME THE MARGINAL TEMPERATURES. HENCE THE RISK FOR
HEAVY...WET SNOW DURING THE AM COMMUTE FOR MANY.

QPF AND SNOWFALL...
VERY HIGH PWAT AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE...THE SAME THAT BROUGHT THE
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN LAST NIGHT. LOOKING AT 1.0-1.25 INCH PWATS
/NEARLY 3 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ STRONG F-GEN COMBINED WITH
MODERATE LLJ WILL YIELD QPF VALUES RANGING FROM THE 0.25 INCHES
ACROSS WRN MA/CT TO AS MUCH AS AN INCH+ IN EASTERN MA. SNOWFALL
BASED ON THIS QPF IS TRICKY FOR THE THERMAL REGIONS MENTIONED
ABOVE. CHANGE-OVER TIMING AND LOW RATIOS ARE LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL THIS STORM WOULD OTHERWISE HAVE. HIGHER RATIOS WILL BE
WHERE LOWER QPF IS OBSERVED AND VICE-VERSA. THE PEAK OVERLAP IS
FROM NE CT INTO NRN RI AND EASTERN MA...WHERE FINAL TOTALS OF 6-8
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. 3-6 POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR CENTRAL
MA/CT...SOUTHERN RI AND PORTIONS OF SE MA WITH LESS ON THE OUTER
ARM OF CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS DUE TO THE FACT THESE AREAS WILL
REMAIN RAIN THE LONGEST.

IMPACTS...
DUE TO THE FACT THAT SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LOW WITH THIS STORM...AND
BANDING WITH 1+ INCH/HR RATES ARE POSSIBLE...HEAVY WET SNOW MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES. THIS WILL BE EXACERBATED BY A LLJ
AROUND 40 KT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN SOME OF IT/S MOMENTUM.
THEREFORE...THE COMBINATION OF WIND GUSTS 30-40 MPH AND HEAVY WET
SNOW MAY INCREASE THE RISK.

THE OTHER PRIMARY IMPACT IS THAT THE CHANGE-OVER AND HEAVIEST
PRECIP/SNOW WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THE PEAK HOURS OF THE AM
COMMUTE...WITH LOCALIZED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS.

THE MORE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM IN RELATION TO PREVIOUS
PROGS SUGGEST A SLOWER END AS WELL. ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL BE DRYING THE LOW LEVELS...SO THERE COULD BE A LITTLE BIT OF
SNOW LEFTOVER MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN MA BEFORE THINGS
END BY EARLY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND
* ANOTHER COASTAL STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY OR TUESDAY
* DRY WEATHER RETURNS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL
SWING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY...BUT THE
BEST DYNAMICS/MOISTURE REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO OUR N THAT WE SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO OUR
REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH SETS STAGE FOR POTENTIALLY STORMY
WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE STORM POTENTIAL FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STORM OCCURRING DURING THIS
TIME FRAME BUT DIFFER ON HOW THEY HANDLE THE STORM. EXPECT THIS
STORM TO COME MORE INTO FOCUS IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE
SHORTWAVES MOVE ON TO THE WEST COAST AND ARE BETTER SAMPLED.  HAVE
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SOME SORT OF STORM OCCURRING DURING THIS TIME
FRAME.  HOWEVER...THE DETAILS ARE STILL VERY UNCERTAIN.

12Z ECMWF PRODUCES TWO COASTAL STORMS...ONE OF WHICH WILL PASS WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK ON MONDAY /WITH LITTLE EFFECT ON SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND/...AND THE SECOND OF WHICH PASSES DIRECTLY OVER THE
BENCHMARK ON TUESDAY.  12Z GFS PRODUCES A SINGLE COASTAL SYSTEM THAT
DEVELOPS OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA AND MOVES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TUESDAY.  THIS WOULD RESULT IN WIDELY DIFFERENT TEMPERATURE PROFILES
THAN THE ECMWF.  DUE TO THE WIDE VARIATIONS IN THESE DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS...WE ARE BASING FORECAST MORE ON ENSEMBLES AND WILL
UTILIZE CONSENSUS BLEND TO WORK OUT DETAILS FOR NOW.

THIS RESULTS IN SNOW DEVELOPING LATE MON INTO TUE...BUT DESPITE COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WE WILL PROBABLY BE DEALING WITH WARMTH IN
BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH WILL GIVE US ISSUES WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX OR EVEN
RAIN...PRIMARILY FROM PROVIDENCE AND BOSTON TO CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.
SETUP RIGHT NOW FAVORS HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS INTERIOR...BUT
AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND THERE COULD BE SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS
TO FORECAST IN COMING DAYS.

FOR NOW...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE BUT WE NEED TO SEE HOW THESE TWO
SHORT WAVES EVOLVE AS THEY ENTER WEST COAST AND WORK THEIR WAY
ACROSS COUNTRY.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
AGAIN MODEL SPREAD IS HIGH AT THIS TIME RANGE GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN
HOW MON/TUE EVOLVES. BUT WE DO EXPECT TO SEE DRYING IN WAKE OF
SYSTEM WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WHILE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON HOW THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM PLAYS
OUT...THERE IS AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS ON HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  EXPECT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THROUGH 06Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. EXPECT GRADUAL NORTHWARD SPREAD OF A SHIELD OF RAIN
FROM S TO N THIS EVENING. LOW PROBABILITY OF CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING TO MVFR...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...
CAPE...AND ISLANDS.

LATE TONIGHT INTO 18Z TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THE RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO EXPAND NORTHWEST...COVERING MOST OF
SRN NEW ENGLAND BY ABOUT 10-12Z. THIS WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CIGS/VSBYS. THEN...AFTER 09Z
ESPECIALLY THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NW-SE UNTIL IT/S ALL
SNOW AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS BY ABOUT 15Z. SOME ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY SFCS. HOWEVER RUNWAYS MAY RECEIVE
A PLOWABLE AMOUNT MAINLY E OF AN IJD-ORH-BVY LINE. THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS.

AFTER 18Z TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SNOWS/RAIN COME TO AN END AND VERY QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF PRECIP AND CHANGE TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
PRECIP TIMING.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN OR
SNOW...ESPECIALLY LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TONIGHT...
WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT MAINLY TO THE N THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT WITH
BOTH SEAS AND GUSTS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. THEREFORE...LEFTOVER
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE DROPPED BUT IN FAVOR OF A GALE
WARNING...MORE ON THAT BELOW.

TOMORROW...
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS PICK UP THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KT ALONG THE SOUTHERN WATERS...AND 35-45 KT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. SEAS BECOME HIGH...MAINLY 8-10 FT ON THE SE OCEAN WATERS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN/FOG ACROSS THE WATERS WITH A
POSSIBLE CHANGE TO SNOW NEAR THE EASTERN SHORELINES.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD OVER THE WATERS.  SCA LIKELY NEEDED FOR
LINGERING SEAS.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS MAINLY
BELOW SCA. LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS SATURDAY MORNING.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. EXPECT INCREASING N/NE WINDS
AHEAD OF COASTAL LOW. SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH 25-30KT GUSTS AND
SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT OR HIGHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR CTZ004.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR CTZ002-003.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     MAZ019>022.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR MAZ004>007-
     012>018-026.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR MAZ011.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     RIZ003>007.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR RIZ001-002.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ230-
     236-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/RLG
NEAR TERM...DOODY/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...DOODY/RLG
MARINE...DOODY/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 042340
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
640 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT STALLING OFFSHORE WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LOW PRESSURE
TO TRAVEL ALONG EARLY TOMORROW. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL DELIVER A
MIX OF RAIN CHANGING TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A WEAK
COLD FRONT SUNDAY MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS. A COMPLEX COASTAL STORM
SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
645 PM UPDATE...RAIN IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS EVENING...JUST MOVING ONTO THE SOUTH
COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS THIS EVENING. FORECAST HANDLES THIS
WELL AND SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE PRECIP/WEATHER
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO DEWPOINTS AND THE
CLOUD COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

OVERALL A RELATIVELY QUIET EVENING AS BRIEF MID/SFC RIDGING TAKES
HOLD. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF DEVELOPING COASTAL WAVE CURRENTLY
DELIVERING PRECIP TO MUCH OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. TEMPS WILL
NOT DROP SIGNIFICANTLY THANKS TO THE COLD AIR REMAINING TRAPPED
MAINLY TO THE N AND W OF THE REGION. THIS MEANS THAT TEMPS ARE
LIKELY ONLY TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S BEFORE PRECIP
BEGINS TO START. MORE ON THE PRECIP/STORM BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...

*** WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR MUCH OF EASTERN MA...NORTHERN
 RI...AND NORTHEAST CT ***

*** WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR NORTHERN CT...SOUTHERN RI AND
 SOUTHEAST MA...AS WELL AS WESTERN MA.

OVERVIEW AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST...INCLUDING TIMING...
UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE WILL BE TAKING ON STRONG NEGATIVE TILT AS IT
APPROACHES THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH EQUATORWARD ENTRANCE REGION OF STRONG UPPER JET TO
DEVELOP COASTAL LOW PRES WAVE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
OFFSHORE. LATEST TRENDS ALL MAKE A MUCH CLOSER PASS WITH THIS WAVE
THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND GIVEN IT HAS A DIRECT CONNECTION TO
BAY OF CAMPECHE AND GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE...THE QPF FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD FURTHER W THAN PREVIOUS PROGS. QPF IS GENERALLY
WELL AGREED UPON AT THIS POINT...AT ODDS ARE THE LOW LVL THERMAL
PROFILES AND HOW QUICKLY/EFFICIENTLY THEY ARE ABLE TO COOL. WHILE
TIMING OF THE TROWAL OVERHEAD IS WELL AGREED UPON...WITH PRECIP
BEGINNING ALONG SE MA ROUND 10PM...THEN SPREADING NW THROUGH ABOUT
2-4AM. HOW QUICKLY IT CHANGES TO SNOW MAINLY AFTER 4AM IS THE
PRIMARY QUESTION. SFC WET-BULBS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW
30S...WHICH ARE MARGINAL. EXPECT GRADUAL CHANGE ACROSS WRN MA/CT
BETWEEN 2-5AM...CENTRAL...NORTHEAST MA AND RI BETWEEN 4 AM AND
7AM...THEN BETWEEN 7 AM AND MID-DAY FOR SE MA. THE TIMING WILL
HAVE MUCH TO DO WITH THE FINAL TOTALS...BUT GIVEN STRONG F-GEN
ABOUT H6 YIELDING LIFT WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH REGIME AROUND
H5...HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES COULD LEAD TO ENOUGH DYNAMIC COOLING TO
OVERCOME THE MARGINAL TEMPERATURES. HENCE THE RISK FOR
HEAVY...WET SNOW DURING THE AM COMMUTE FOR MANY.

QPF AND SNOWFALL...
VERY HIGH PWAT AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE...THE SAME THAT BROUGHT THE
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN LAST NIGHT. LOOKING AT 1.0-1.25 INCH PWATS
/NEARLY 3 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ STRONG F-GEN COMBINED WITH
MODERATE LLJ WILL YIELD QPF VALUES RANGING FROM THE 0.25 INCHES
ACROSS WRN MA/CT TO AS MUCH AS AN INCH+ IN EASTERN MA. SNOWFALL
BASED ON THIS QPF IS TRICKY FOR THE THERMAL REGIONS MENTIONED
ABOVE. CHANGE-OVER TIMING AND LOW RATIOS ARE LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL THIS STORM WOULD OTHERWISE HAVE. HIGHER RATIOS WILL BE
WHERE LOWER QPF IS OBSERVED AND VICE-VERSA. THE PEAK OVERLAP IS
FROM NE CT INTO NRN RI AND EASTERN MA...WHERE FINAL TOTALS OF 6-8
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. 3-6 POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR CENTRAL
MA/CT...SOUTHERN RI AND PORTIONS OF SE MA WITH LESS ON THE OUTER
ARM OF CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS DUE TO THE FACT THESE AREAS WILL
REMAIN RAIN THE LONGEST.

IMPACTS...
DUE TO THE FACT THAT SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LOW WITH THIS STORM...AND
BANDING WITH 1+ INCH/HR RATES ARE POSSIBLE...HEAVY WET SNOW MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES. THIS WILL BE EXACERBATED BY A LLJ
AROUND 40 KT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN SOME OF IT/S MOMENTUM.
THEREFORE...THE COMBINATION OF WIND GUSTS 30-40 MPH AND HEAVY WET
SNOW MAY INCREASE THE RISK.

THE OTHER PRIMARY IMPACT IS THAT THE CHANGE-OVER AND HEAVIEST
PRECIP/SNOW WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THE PEAK HOURS OF THE AM
COMMUTE...WITH LOCALIZED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS.

THE MORE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM IN RELATION TO PREVIOUS
PROGS SUGGEST A SLOWER END AS WELL. ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL BE DRYING THE LOW LEVELS...SO THERE COULD BE A LITTLE BIT OF
SNOW LEFTOVER MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN MA BEFORE THINGS
END BY EARLY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND
* ANOTHER COASTAL STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY OR TUESDAY
* DRY WEATHER RETURNS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL
SWING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY...BUT THE
BEST DYNAMICS/MOISTURE REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO OUR N THAT WE SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO OUR
REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH SETS STAGE FOR POTENTIALLY STORMY
WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE STORM POTENTIAL FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STORM OCCURRING DURING THIS
TIME FRAME BUT DIFFER ON HOW THEY HANDLE THE STORM. EXPECT THIS
STORM TO COME MORE INTO FOCUS IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE
SHORTWAVES MOVE ON TO THE WEST COAST AND ARE BETTER SAMPLED.  HAVE
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SOME SORT OF STORM OCCURRING DURING THIS TIME
FRAME.  HOWEVER...THE DETAILS ARE STILL VERY UNCERTAIN.

12Z ECMWF PRODUCES TWO COASTAL STORMS...ONE OF WHICH WILL PASS WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK ON MONDAY /WITH LITTLE EFFECT ON SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND/...AND THE SECOND OF WHICH PASSES DIRECTLY OVER THE
BENCHMARK ON TUESDAY.  12Z GFS PRODUCES A SINGLE COASTAL SYSTEM THAT
DEVELOPS OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA AND MOVES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TUESDAY.  THIS WOULD RESULT IN WIDELY DIFFERENT TEMPERATURE PROFILES
THAN THE ECMWF.  DUE TO THE WIDE VARIATIONS IN THESE DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS...WE ARE BASING FORECAST MORE ON ENSEMBLES AND WILL
UTILIZE CONSENSUS BLEND TO WORK OUT DETAILS FOR NOW.

THIS RESULTS IN SNOW DEVELOPING LATE MON INTO TUE...BUT DESPITE COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WE WILL PROBABLY BE DEALING WITH WARMTH IN
BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH WILL GIVE US ISSUES WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX OR EVEN
RAIN...PRIMARILY FROM PROVIDENCE AND BOSTON TO CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.
SETUP RIGHT NOW FAVORS HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS INTERIOR...BUT
AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND THERE COULD BE SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS
TO FORECAST IN COMING DAYS.

FOR NOW...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE BUT WE NEED TO SEE HOW THESE TWO
SHORT WAVES EVOLVE AS THEY ENTER WEST COAST AND WORK THEIR WAY
ACROSS COUNTRY.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
AGAIN MODEL SPREAD IS HIGH AT THIS TIME RANGE GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN
HOW MON/TUE EVOLVES. BUT WE DO EXPECT TO SEE DRYING IN WAKE OF
SYSTEM WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WHILE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON HOW THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM PLAYS
OUT...THERE IS AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS ON HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  EXPECT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THROUGH 06Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. EXPECT GRADUAL NORTHWARD SPREAD OF A SHIELD OF RAIN
FROM S TO N THIS EVENING. LOW PROBABILITY OF CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING TO MVFR...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...
CAPE...AND ISLANDS.

LATE TONIGHT INTO 18Z TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THE RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO EXPAND NORTHWEST...COVERING MOST OF
SRN NEW ENGLAND BY ABOUT 10-12Z. THIS WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CIGS/VSBYS. THEN...AFTER 09Z
ESPECIALLY THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NW-SE UNTIL IT/S ALL
SNOW AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS BY ABOUT 15Z. SOME ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY SFCS. HOWEVER RUNWAYS MAY RECEIVE
A PLOWABLE AMOUNT MAINLY E OF AN IJD-ORH-BVY LINE. THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS.

AFTER 18Z TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SNOWS/RAIN COME TO AN END AND VERY QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF PRECIP AND CHANGE TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
PRECIP TIMING.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN OR
SNOW...ESPECIALLY LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TONIGHT...
WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT MAINLY TO THE N THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT WITH
BOTH SEAS AND GUSTS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. THEREFORE...LEFTOVER
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE DROPPED BUT IN FAVOR OF A GALE
WARNING...MORE ON THAT BELOW.

TOMORROW...
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS PICK UP THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KT ALONG THE SOUTHERN WATERS...AND 35-45 KT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. SEAS BECOME HIGH...MAINLY 8-10 FT ON THE SE OCEAN WATERS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN/FOG ACROSS THE WATERS WITH A
POSSIBLE CHANGE TO SNOW NEAR THE EASTERN SHORELINES.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD OVER THE WATERS.  SCA LIKELY NEEDED FOR
LINGERING SEAS.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS MAINLY
BELOW SCA. LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS SATURDAY MORNING.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. EXPECT INCREASING N/NE WINDS
AHEAD OF COASTAL LOW. SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH 25-30KT GUSTS AND
SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT OR HIGHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR CTZ004.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     CTZ002-003.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     MAZ019>022.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     MAZ004>007-012>018-026.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     MAZ011.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     RIZ003>007.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR RIZ001-
     002.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ230-
     236-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/RLG
NEAR TERM...DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...DOODY/RLG
MARINE...DOODY/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 042340
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
640 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT STALLING OFFSHORE WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LOW PRESSURE
TO TRAVEL ALONG EARLY TOMORROW. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL DELIVER A
MIX OF RAIN CHANGING TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A WEAK
COLD FRONT SUNDAY MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS. A COMPLEX COASTAL STORM
SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
645 PM UPDATE...RAIN IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS EVENING...JUST MOVING ONTO THE SOUTH
COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS THIS EVENING. FORECAST HANDLES THIS
WELL AND SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE PRECIP/WEATHER
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO DEWPOINTS AND THE
CLOUD COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

OVERALL A RELATIVELY QUIET EVENING AS BRIEF MID/SFC RIDGING TAKES
HOLD. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF DEVELOPING COASTAL WAVE CURRENTLY
DELIVERING PRECIP TO MUCH OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. TEMPS WILL
NOT DROP SIGNIFICANTLY THANKS TO THE COLD AIR REMAINING TRAPPED
MAINLY TO THE N AND W OF THE REGION. THIS MEANS THAT TEMPS ARE
LIKELY ONLY TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S BEFORE PRECIP
BEGINS TO START. MORE ON THE PRECIP/STORM BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...

*** WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR MUCH OF EASTERN MA...NORTHERN
 RI...AND NORTHEAST CT ***

*** WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR NORTHERN CT...SOUTHERN RI AND
 SOUTHEAST MA...AS WELL AS WESTERN MA.

OVERVIEW AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST...INCLUDING TIMING...
UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE WILL BE TAKING ON STRONG NEGATIVE TILT AS IT
APPROACHES THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH EQUATORWARD ENTRANCE REGION OF STRONG UPPER JET TO
DEVELOP COASTAL LOW PRES WAVE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
OFFSHORE. LATEST TRENDS ALL MAKE A MUCH CLOSER PASS WITH THIS WAVE
THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND GIVEN IT HAS A DIRECT CONNECTION TO
BAY OF CAMPECHE AND GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE...THE QPF FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD FURTHER W THAN PREVIOUS PROGS. QPF IS GENERALLY
WELL AGREED UPON AT THIS POINT...AT ODDS ARE THE LOW LVL THERMAL
PROFILES AND HOW QUICKLY/EFFICIENTLY THEY ARE ABLE TO COOL. WHILE
TIMING OF THE TROWAL OVERHEAD IS WELL AGREED UPON...WITH PRECIP
BEGINNING ALONG SE MA ROUND 10PM...THEN SPREADING NW THROUGH ABOUT
2-4AM. HOW QUICKLY IT CHANGES TO SNOW MAINLY AFTER 4AM IS THE
PRIMARY QUESTION. SFC WET-BULBS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW
30S...WHICH ARE MARGINAL. EXPECT GRADUAL CHANGE ACROSS WRN MA/CT
BETWEEN 2-5AM...CENTRAL...NORTHEAST MA AND RI BETWEEN 4 AM AND
7AM...THEN BETWEEN 7 AM AND MID-DAY FOR SE MA. THE TIMING WILL
HAVE MUCH TO DO WITH THE FINAL TOTALS...BUT GIVEN STRONG F-GEN
ABOUT H6 YIELDING LIFT WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH REGIME AROUND
H5...HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES COULD LEAD TO ENOUGH DYNAMIC COOLING TO
OVERCOME THE MARGINAL TEMPERATURES. HENCE THE RISK FOR
HEAVY...WET SNOW DURING THE AM COMMUTE FOR MANY.

QPF AND SNOWFALL...
VERY HIGH PWAT AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE...THE SAME THAT BROUGHT THE
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN LAST NIGHT. LOOKING AT 1.0-1.25 INCH PWATS
/NEARLY 3 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ STRONG F-GEN COMBINED WITH
MODERATE LLJ WILL YIELD QPF VALUES RANGING FROM THE 0.25 INCHES
ACROSS WRN MA/CT TO AS MUCH AS AN INCH+ IN EASTERN MA. SNOWFALL
BASED ON THIS QPF IS TRICKY FOR THE THERMAL REGIONS MENTIONED
ABOVE. CHANGE-OVER TIMING AND LOW RATIOS ARE LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL THIS STORM WOULD OTHERWISE HAVE. HIGHER RATIOS WILL BE
WHERE LOWER QPF IS OBSERVED AND VICE-VERSA. THE PEAK OVERLAP IS
FROM NE CT INTO NRN RI AND EASTERN MA...WHERE FINAL TOTALS OF 6-8
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. 3-6 POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR CENTRAL
MA/CT...SOUTHERN RI AND PORTIONS OF SE MA WITH LESS ON THE OUTER
ARM OF CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS DUE TO THE FACT THESE AREAS WILL
REMAIN RAIN THE LONGEST.

IMPACTS...
DUE TO THE FACT THAT SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LOW WITH THIS STORM...AND
BANDING WITH 1+ INCH/HR RATES ARE POSSIBLE...HEAVY WET SNOW MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES. THIS WILL BE EXACERBATED BY A LLJ
AROUND 40 KT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN SOME OF IT/S MOMENTUM.
THEREFORE...THE COMBINATION OF WIND GUSTS 30-40 MPH AND HEAVY WET
SNOW MAY INCREASE THE RISK.

THE OTHER PRIMARY IMPACT IS THAT THE CHANGE-OVER AND HEAVIEST
PRECIP/SNOW WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THE PEAK HOURS OF THE AM
COMMUTE...WITH LOCALIZED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS.

THE MORE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM IN RELATION TO PREVIOUS
PROGS SUGGEST A SLOWER END AS WELL. ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL BE DRYING THE LOW LEVELS...SO THERE COULD BE A LITTLE BIT OF
SNOW LEFTOVER MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN MA BEFORE THINGS
END BY EARLY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND
* ANOTHER COASTAL STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY OR TUESDAY
* DRY WEATHER RETURNS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL
SWING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY...BUT THE
BEST DYNAMICS/MOISTURE REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO OUR N THAT WE SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO OUR
REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH SETS STAGE FOR POTENTIALLY STORMY
WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE STORM POTENTIAL FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STORM OCCURRING DURING THIS
TIME FRAME BUT DIFFER ON HOW THEY HANDLE THE STORM. EXPECT THIS
STORM TO COME MORE INTO FOCUS IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE
SHORTWAVES MOVE ON TO THE WEST COAST AND ARE BETTER SAMPLED.  HAVE
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SOME SORT OF STORM OCCURRING DURING THIS TIME
FRAME.  HOWEVER...THE DETAILS ARE STILL VERY UNCERTAIN.

12Z ECMWF PRODUCES TWO COASTAL STORMS...ONE OF WHICH WILL PASS WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK ON MONDAY /WITH LITTLE EFFECT ON SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND/...AND THE SECOND OF WHICH PASSES DIRECTLY OVER THE
BENCHMARK ON TUESDAY.  12Z GFS PRODUCES A SINGLE COASTAL SYSTEM THAT
DEVELOPS OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA AND MOVES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TUESDAY.  THIS WOULD RESULT IN WIDELY DIFFERENT TEMPERATURE PROFILES
THAN THE ECMWF.  DUE TO THE WIDE VARIATIONS IN THESE DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS...WE ARE BASING FORECAST MORE ON ENSEMBLES AND WILL
UTILIZE CONSENSUS BLEND TO WORK OUT DETAILS FOR NOW.

THIS RESULTS IN SNOW DEVELOPING LATE MON INTO TUE...BUT DESPITE COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WE WILL PROBABLY BE DEALING WITH WARMTH IN
BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH WILL GIVE US ISSUES WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX OR EVEN
RAIN...PRIMARILY FROM PROVIDENCE AND BOSTON TO CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.
SETUP RIGHT NOW FAVORS HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS INTERIOR...BUT
AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND THERE COULD BE SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS
TO FORECAST IN COMING DAYS.

FOR NOW...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE BUT WE NEED TO SEE HOW THESE TWO
SHORT WAVES EVOLVE AS THEY ENTER WEST COAST AND WORK THEIR WAY
ACROSS COUNTRY.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
AGAIN MODEL SPREAD IS HIGH AT THIS TIME RANGE GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN
HOW MON/TUE EVOLVES. BUT WE DO EXPECT TO SEE DRYING IN WAKE OF
SYSTEM WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WHILE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON HOW THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM PLAYS
OUT...THERE IS AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS ON HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  EXPECT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THROUGH 06Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. EXPECT GRADUAL NORTHWARD SPREAD OF A SHIELD OF RAIN
FROM S TO N THIS EVENING. LOW PROBABILITY OF CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING TO MVFR...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...
CAPE...AND ISLANDS.

LATE TONIGHT INTO 18Z TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THE RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO EXPAND NORTHWEST...COVERING MOST OF
SRN NEW ENGLAND BY ABOUT 10-12Z. THIS WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CIGS/VSBYS. THEN...AFTER 09Z
ESPECIALLY THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NW-SE UNTIL IT/S ALL
SNOW AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS BY ABOUT 15Z. SOME ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY SFCS. HOWEVER RUNWAYS MAY RECEIVE
A PLOWABLE AMOUNT MAINLY E OF AN IJD-ORH-BVY LINE. THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS.

AFTER 18Z TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SNOWS/RAIN COME TO AN END AND VERY QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF PRECIP AND CHANGE TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
PRECIP TIMING.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN OR
SNOW...ESPECIALLY LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TONIGHT...
WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT MAINLY TO THE N THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT WITH
BOTH SEAS AND GUSTS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. THEREFORE...LEFTOVER
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE DROPPED BUT IN FAVOR OF A GALE
WARNING...MORE ON THAT BELOW.

TOMORROW...
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS PICK UP THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KT ALONG THE SOUTHERN WATERS...AND 35-45 KT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. SEAS BECOME HIGH...MAINLY 8-10 FT ON THE SE OCEAN WATERS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN/FOG ACROSS THE WATERS WITH A
POSSIBLE CHANGE TO SNOW NEAR THE EASTERN SHORELINES.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD OVER THE WATERS.  SCA LIKELY NEEDED FOR
LINGERING SEAS.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS MAINLY
BELOW SCA. LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS SATURDAY MORNING.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. EXPECT INCREASING N/NE WINDS
AHEAD OF COASTAL LOW. SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH 25-30KT GUSTS AND
SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT OR HIGHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR CTZ004.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     CTZ002-003.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     MAZ019>022.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     MAZ004>007-012>018-026.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     MAZ011.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     RIZ003>007.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR RIZ001-
     002.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ230-
     236-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/RLG
NEAR TERM...DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...DOODY/RLG
MARINE...DOODY/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 042340
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
640 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT STALLING OFFSHORE WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LOW PRESSURE
TO TRAVEL ALONG EARLY TOMORROW. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL DELIVER A
MIX OF RAIN CHANGING TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A WEAK
COLD FRONT SUNDAY MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS. A COMPLEX COASTAL STORM
SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
645 PM UPDATE...RAIN IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS EVENING...JUST MOVING ONTO THE SOUTH
COAST...CAPE...AND ISLANDS THIS EVENING. FORECAST HANDLES THIS
WELL AND SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE PRECIP/WEATHER
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO DEWPOINTS AND THE
CLOUD COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

OVERALL A RELATIVELY QUIET EVENING AS BRIEF MID/SFC RIDGING TAKES
HOLD. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF DEVELOPING COASTAL WAVE CURRENTLY
DELIVERING PRECIP TO MUCH OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. TEMPS WILL
NOT DROP SIGNIFICANTLY THANKS TO THE COLD AIR REMAINING TRAPPED
MAINLY TO THE N AND W OF THE REGION. THIS MEANS THAT TEMPS ARE
LIKELY ONLY TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S BEFORE PRECIP
BEGINS TO START. MORE ON THE PRECIP/STORM BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...

*** WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR MUCH OF EASTERN MA...NORTHERN
 RI...AND NORTHEAST CT ***

*** WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR NORTHERN CT...SOUTHERN RI AND
 SOUTHEAST MA...AS WELL AS WESTERN MA.

OVERVIEW AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST...INCLUDING TIMING...
UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE WILL BE TAKING ON STRONG NEGATIVE TILT AS IT
APPROACHES THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH EQUATORWARD ENTRANCE REGION OF STRONG UPPER JET TO
DEVELOP COASTAL LOW PRES WAVE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
OFFSHORE. LATEST TRENDS ALL MAKE A MUCH CLOSER PASS WITH THIS WAVE
THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND GIVEN IT HAS A DIRECT CONNECTION TO
BAY OF CAMPECHE AND GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE...THE QPF FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD FURTHER W THAN PREVIOUS PROGS. QPF IS GENERALLY
WELL AGREED UPON AT THIS POINT...AT ODDS ARE THE LOW LVL THERMAL
PROFILES AND HOW QUICKLY/EFFICIENTLY THEY ARE ABLE TO COOL. WHILE
TIMING OF THE TROWAL OVERHEAD IS WELL AGREED UPON...WITH PRECIP
BEGINNING ALONG SE MA ROUND 10PM...THEN SPREADING NW THROUGH ABOUT
2-4AM. HOW QUICKLY IT CHANGES TO SNOW MAINLY AFTER 4AM IS THE
PRIMARY QUESTION. SFC WET-BULBS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW
30S...WHICH ARE MARGINAL. EXPECT GRADUAL CHANGE ACROSS WRN MA/CT
BETWEEN 2-5AM...CENTRAL...NORTHEAST MA AND RI BETWEEN 4 AM AND
7AM...THEN BETWEEN 7 AM AND MID-DAY FOR SE MA. THE TIMING WILL
HAVE MUCH TO DO WITH THE FINAL TOTALS...BUT GIVEN STRONG F-GEN
ABOUT H6 YIELDING LIFT WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH REGIME AROUND
H5...HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES COULD LEAD TO ENOUGH DYNAMIC COOLING TO
OVERCOME THE MARGINAL TEMPERATURES. HENCE THE RISK FOR
HEAVY...WET SNOW DURING THE AM COMMUTE FOR MANY.

QPF AND SNOWFALL...
VERY HIGH PWAT AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE...THE SAME THAT BROUGHT THE
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN LAST NIGHT. LOOKING AT 1.0-1.25 INCH PWATS
/NEARLY 3 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ STRONG F-GEN COMBINED WITH
MODERATE LLJ WILL YIELD QPF VALUES RANGING FROM THE 0.25 INCHES
ACROSS WRN MA/CT TO AS MUCH AS AN INCH+ IN EASTERN MA. SNOWFALL
BASED ON THIS QPF IS TRICKY FOR THE THERMAL REGIONS MENTIONED
ABOVE. CHANGE-OVER TIMING AND LOW RATIOS ARE LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL THIS STORM WOULD OTHERWISE HAVE. HIGHER RATIOS WILL BE
WHERE LOWER QPF IS OBSERVED AND VICE-VERSA. THE PEAK OVERLAP IS
FROM NE CT INTO NRN RI AND EASTERN MA...WHERE FINAL TOTALS OF 6-8
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. 3-6 POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR CENTRAL
MA/CT...SOUTHERN RI AND PORTIONS OF SE MA WITH LESS ON THE OUTER
ARM OF CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS DUE TO THE FACT THESE AREAS WILL
REMAIN RAIN THE LONGEST.

IMPACTS...
DUE TO THE FACT THAT SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LOW WITH THIS STORM...AND
BANDING WITH 1+ INCH/HR RATES ARE POSSIBLE...HEAVY WET SNOW MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES. THIS WILL BE EXACERBATED BY A LLJ
AROUND 40 KT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN SOME OF IT/S MOMENTUM.
THEREFORE...THE COMBINATION OF WIND GUSTS 30-40 MPH AND HEAVY WET
SNOW MAY INCREASE THE RISK.

THE OTHER PRIMARY IMPACT IS THAT THE CHANGE-OVER AND HEAVIEST
PRECIP/SNOW WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THE PEAK HOURS OF THE AM
COMMUTE...WITH LOCALIZED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS.

THE MORE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM IN RELATION TO PREVIOUS
PROGS SUGGEST A SLOWER END AS WELL. ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL BE DRYING THE LOW LEVELS...SO THERE COULD BE A LITTLE BIT OF
SNOW LEFTOVER MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN MA BEFORE THINGS
END BY EARLY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND
* ANOTHER COASTAL STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY OR TUESDAY
* DRY WEATHER RETURNS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL
SWING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY...BUT THE
BEST DYNAMICS/MOISTURE REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO OUR N THAT WE SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO OUR
REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH SETS STAGE FOR POTENTIALLY STORMY
WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE STORM POTENTIAL FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STORM OCCURRING DURING THIS
TIME FRAME BUT DIFFER ON HOW THEY HANDLE THE STORM. EXPECT THIS
STORM TO COME MORE INTO FOCUS IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE
SHORTWAVES MOVE ON TO THE WEST COAST AND ARE BETTER SAMPLED.  HAVE
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SOME SORT OF STORM OCCURRING DURING THIS TIME
FRAME.  HOWEVER...THE DETAILS ARE STILL VERY UNCERTAIN.

12Z ECMWF PRODUCES TWO COASTAL STORMS...ONE OF WHICH WILL PASS WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK ON MONDAY /WITH LITTLE EFFECT ON SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND/...AND THE SECOND OF WHICH PASSES DIRECTLY OVER THE
BENCHMARK ON TUESDAY.  12Z GFS PRODUCES A SINGLE COASTAL SYSTEM THAT
DEVELOPS OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA AND MOVES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TUESDAY.  THIS WOULD RESULT IN WIDELY DIFFERENT TEMPERATURE PROFILES
THAN THE ECMWF.  DUE TO THE WIDE VARIATIONS IN THESE DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS...WE ARE BASING FORECAST MORE ON ENSEMBLES AND WILL
UTILIZE CONSENSUS BLEND TO WORK OUT DETAILS FOR NOW.

THIS RESULTS IN SNOW DEVELOPING LATE MON INTO TUE...BUT DESPITE COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WE WILL PROBABLY BE DEALING WITH WARMTH IN
BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH WILL GIVE US ISSUES WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX OR EVEN
RAIN...PRIMARILY FROM PROVIDENCE AND BOSTON TO CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.
SETUP RIGHT NOW FAVORS HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS INTERIOR...BUT
AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND THERE COULD BE SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS
TO FORECAST IN COMING DAYS.

FOR NOW...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE BUT WE NEED TO SEE HOW THESE TWO
SHORT WAVES EVOLVE AS THEY ENTER WEST COAST AND WORK THEIR WAY
ACROSS COUNTRY.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
AGAIN MODEL SPREAD IS HIGH AT THIS TIME RANGE GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN
HOW MON/TUE EVOLVES. BUT WE DO EXPECT TO SEE DRYING IN WAKE OF
SYSTEM WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WHILE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON HOW THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM PLAYS
OUT...THERE IS AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS ON HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  EXPECT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THROUGH 06Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. EXPECT GRADUAL NORTHWARD SPREAD OF A SHIELD OF RAIN
FROM S TO N THIS EVENING. LOW PROBABILITY OF CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING TO MVFR...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...
CAPE...AND ISLANDS.

LATE TONIGHT INTO 18Z TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THE RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO EXPAND NORTHWEST...COVERING MOST OF
SRN NEW ENGLAND BY ABOUT 10-12Z. THIS WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CIGS/VSBYS. THEN...AFTER 09Z
ESPECIALLY THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NW-SE UNTIL IT/S ALL
SNOW AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS BY ABOUT 15Z. SOME ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY SFCS. HOWEVER RUNWAYS MAY RECEIVE
A PLOWABLE AMOUNT MAINLY E OF AN IJD-ORH-BVY LINE. THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS.

AFTER 18Z TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SNOWS/RAIN COME TO AN END AND VERY QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF PRECIP AND CHANGE TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
PRECIP TIMING.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN OR
SNOW...ESPECIALLY LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TONIGHT...
WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT MAINLY TO THE N THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT WITH
BOTH SEAS AND GUSTS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. THEREFORE...LEFTOVER
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE DROPPED BUT IN FAVOR OF A GALE
WARNING...MORE ON THAT BELOW.

TOMORROW...
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS PICK UP THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KT ALONG THE SOUTHERN WATERS...AND 35-45 KT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. SEAS BECOME HIGH...MAINLY 8-10 FT ON THE SE OCEAN WATERS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN/FOG ACROSS THE WATERS WITH A
POSSIBLE CHANGE TO SNOW NEAR THE EASTERN SHORELINES.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD OVER THE WATERS.  SCA LIKELY NEEDED FOR
LINGERING SEAS.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS MAINLY
BELOW SCA. LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS SATURDAY MORNING.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. EXPECT INCREASING N/NE WINDS
AHEAD OF COASTAL LOW. SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH 25-30KT GUSTS AND
SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT OR HIGHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR CTZ004.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     CTZ002-003.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     MAZ019>022.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     MAZ004>007-012>018-026.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     MAZ011.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     RIZ003>007.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR RIZ001-
     002.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ230-
     236-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/RLG
NEAR TERM...DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...DOODY/RLG
MARINE...DOODY/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 042100
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
400 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT STALLING OFFSHORE WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LOW PRESSURE
TO TRAVEL ALONG EARLY TOMORROW. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL DELIVER A
MIX OF RAIN CHANGING TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A WEAK
COLD FRONT SUNDAY MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS. A COMPLEX COASTAL STORM
SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
OVERALL A RELATIVELY QUIET EVENING AS BRIEF MID/SFC RIDGING TAKES
HOLD. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF DEVELOPING COASTAL WAVE CURRENTLY
DELIVERING PRECIP TO MUCH OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. TEMPS WILL
NOT DROP SIGNIFICANTLY THANKS TO THE COLD AIR REMAINING TRAPPED
MAINLY TO THE N AND W OF THE REGION. THIS MEANS THAT TEMPS ARE
LIKELY ONLY TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S BEFORE PRECIP
BEGINS TO START. MORE ON THE PRECIP/STORM BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...

*** WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR MUCH OF EASTERN MA...NORTHERN
 RI...AND NORTHEAST CT ***

*** WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR NORTHERN CT...SOUTHERN RI AND
 SOUTHEAST MA...AS WELL AS WESTERN MA.

OVERVIEW AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST...INCLUDING TIMING...
UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE WILL BE TAKING ON STRONG NEGATIVE TILT AS IT
APPROACHES THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH EQUATORWARD ENTRANCE REGION OF STRONG UPPER JET TO
DEVELOP COASTAL LOW PRES WAVE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
OFFSHORE. LATEST TRENDS ALL MAKE A MUCH CLOSER PASS WITH THIS WAVE
THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND GIVEN IT HAS A DIRECT CONNECTION TO
BAY OF CAMPECHE AND GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE...THE QPF FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD FURTHER W THAN PREVIOUS PROGS. QPF IS GENERALLY
WELL AGREED UPON AT THIS POINT...AT ODDS ARE THE LOW LVL THERMAL
PROFILES AND HOW QUICKLY/EFFICIENTLY THEY ARE ABLE TO COOL. WHILE
TIMING OF THE TROWAL OVERHEAD IS WELL AGREED UPON...WITH PRECIP
BEGINNING ALONG SE MA ROUND 10PM...THEN SPREADING NW THROUGH ABOUT
2-4AM. HOW QUICKLY IT CHANGES TO SNOW MAINLY AFTER 4AM IS THE
PRIMARY QUESTION. SFC WET-BULBS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW
30S...WHICH ARE MARGINAL. EXPECT GRADUAL CHANGE ACROSS WRN MA/CT
BETWEEN 2-5AM...CENTRAL...NORTHEAST MA AND RI BETWEEN 4 AM AND
7AM...THEN BETWEEN 7 AM AND MID-DAY FOR SE MA. THE TIMING WILL
HAVE MUCH TO DO WITH THE FINAL TOTALS...BUT GIVEN STRONG F-GEN
ABOUT H6 YIELDING LIFT WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH REGIME AROUND
H5...HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES COULD LEAD TO ENOUGH DYNAMIC COOLING TO
OVERCOME THE MARGINAL TEMPERATURES. HENCE THE RISK FOR
HEAVY...WET SNOW DURING THE AM COMMUTE FOR MANY.

QPF AND SNOWFALL...
VERY HIGH PWAT AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE...THE SAME THAT BROUGHT THE
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN LAST NIGHT. LOOKING AT 1.0-1.25 INCH PWATS
/NEARLY 3 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ STRONG F-GEN COMBINED WITH
MODERATE LLJ WILL YIELD QPF VALUES RANGING FROM THE 0.25 INCHES
ACROSS WRN MA/CT TO AS MUCH AS AN INCH+ IN EASTERN MA. SNOWFALL
BASED ON THIS QPF IS TRICKY FOR THE THERMAL REGIONS MENTIONED
ABOVE. CHANGE-OVER TIMING AND LOW RATIOS ARE LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL THIS STORM WOULD OTHERWISE HAVE. HIGHER RATIOS WILL BE
WHERE LOWER QPF IS OBSERVED AND VICE-VERSA. THE PEAK OVERLAP IS
FROM NE CT INTO NRN RI AND EASTERN MA...WHERE FINAL TOTALS OF 6-8
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. 3-6 POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR CENTRAL
MA/CT...SOUTHERN RI AND PORTIONS OF SE MA WITH LESS ON THE OUTER
ARM OF CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS DUE TO THE FACT THESE AREAS WILL
REMAIN RAIN THE LONGEST.

IMPACTS...
DUE TO THE FACT THAT SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LOW WITH THIS STORM...AND
BANDING WITH 1+ INCH/HR RATES ARE POSSIBLE...HEAVY WET SNOW MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES. THIS WILL BE EXACERBATED BY A LLJ
AROUND 40 KT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN SOME OF IT/S MOMENTUM.
THEREFORE...THE COMBINATION OF WIND GUSTS 30-40 MPH AND HEAVY WET
SNOW MAY INCREASE THE RISK.

THE OTHER PRIMARY IMPACT IS THAT THE CHANGE-OVER AND HEAVIEST
PRECIP/SNOW WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THE PEAK HOURS OF THE AM
COMMUTE...WITH LOCALIZED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS.

THE MORE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM IN RELATION TO PREVIOUS
PROGS SUGGEST A SLOWER END AS WELL. ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL BE DRYING THE LOW LEVELS...SO THERE COULD BE A LITTLE BIT OF
SNOW LEFTOVER MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN MA BEFORE THINGS
END BY EARLY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND
* ANOTHER COASTAL STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY OR TUESDAY
* DRY WEATHER RETURNS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL
SWING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY...BUT THE
BEST DYNAMICS/MOISTURE REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO OUR N THAT WE SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO OUR
REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH SETS STAGE FOR POTENTIALLY STORMY
WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE STORM POTENTIAL FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STORM OCCURRING DURING THIS
TIME FRAME BUT DIFFER ON HOW THEY HANDLE THE STORM. EXPECT THIS
STORM TO COME MORE INTO FOCUS IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE
SHORTWAVES MOVE ON TO THE WEST COAST AND ARE BETTER SAMPLED.  HAVE
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SOME SORT OF STORM OCCURRING DURING THIS TIME
FRAME.  HOWEVER...THE DETAILS ARE STILL VERY UNCERTAIN.

12Z ECMWF PRODUCES TWO COASTAL STORMS...ONE OF WHICH WILL PASS WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK ON MONDAY /WITH LITTLE EFFECT ON SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND/...AND THE SECOND OF WHICH PASSES DIRECTLY OVER THE
BENCHMARK ON TUESDAY.  12Z GFS PRODUCES A SINGLE COASTAL SYSTEM THAT
DEVELOPS OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA AND MOVES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TUESDAY.  THIS WOULD RESULT IN WIDELY DIFFERENT TEMPERATURE PROFILES
THAN THE ECMWF.  DUE TO THE WIDE VARIATIONS IN THESE DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS...WE ARE BASING FORECAST MORE ON ENSEMBLES AND WILL
UTILIZE CONSENSUS BLEND TO WORK OUT DETAILS FOR NOW.

THIS RESULTS IN SNOW DEVELOPING LATE MON INTO TUE...BUT DESPITE COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WE WILL PROBABLY BE DEALING WITH WARMTH IN
BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH WILL GIVE US ISSUES WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX OR EVEN
RAIN...PRIMARILY FROM PROVIDENCE AND BOSTON TO CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.
SETUP RIGHT NOW FAVORS HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS INTERIOR...BUT
AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND THERE COULD BE SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS
TO FORECAST IN COMING DAYS.

FOR NOW...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE BUT WE NEED TO SEE HOW THESE TWO
SHORT WAVES EVOLVE AS THEY ENTER WEST COAST AND WORK THEIR WAY
ACROSS COUNTRY.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
AGAIN MODEL SPREAD IS HIGH AT THIS TIME RANGE GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN
HOW MON/TUE EVOLVES. BUT WE DO EXPECT TO SEE DRYING IN WAKE OF
SYSTEM WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WHILE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON HOW THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM PLAYS
OUT...THERE IS AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS ON HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  EXPECT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THROUGH 06Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR...ESPECIALLY ONCE HYA/ACK CLEAR OUT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT GRADUAL SPREAD OF ANOTHER SHIELD OF RAIN FROM S
TO N MAINLY AFTER 00Z.

LATE TONIGHT INTO 18Z TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THE RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO EXPAND NORTHWEST...COVERING MOST OF
SRN NEW ENGLAND BY ABOUT 10-12Z. THIS WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CIGS/VSBYS. THEN...AFTER 09Z
ESPECIALLY THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NW-SE UNTIL IT/S ALL
SNOW AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS BY ABOUT 15Z. SOME ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY SFCS. HOWEVER RUNWAYS MAY RECEIVE
A PLOWABLE AMOUNT MAINLY E OF AN IJD-ORH-BVY LINE. THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS.

AFTER 18Z TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SNOWS/RAIN COME TO AN END AND VERY QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF PRECIP AND CHANGE TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
PRECIP TIMING.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN OR
SNOW...ESPECIALLY LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TONIGHT...
WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT MAINLY TO THE N THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT WITH
BOTH SEAS AND GUSTS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. THEREFORE...LEFTOVER
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE DROPPED BUT IN FAVOR OF A GALE
WARNING...MORE ON THAT BELOW.

TOMORROW...
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS PICK UP THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KT ALONG THE SOUTHERN WATERS...AND 35-45 KT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. SEAS BECOME HIGH...MAINLY 8-10 FT ON THE SE OCEAN WATERS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN/FOG ACROSS THE WATERS WITH A
POSSIBLE CHANGE TO SNOW NEAR THE EASTERN SHORELINES.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD OVER THE WATERS.  SCA LIKELY NEEDED FOR
LINGERING SEAS.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS MAINLY
BELOW SCA. LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS SATURDAY MORNING.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. EXPECT INCREASING N/NE WINDS
AHEAD OF COASTAL LOW. SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH 25-30KT GUSTS AND
SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT OR HIGHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR CTZ004.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     CTZ002-003.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     MAZ019>022.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     MAZ004>007-012>018-026.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     MAZ011.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     RIZ003-004-006-007.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR RIZ001-
     002.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ230-
     236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/RLG
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...DOODY/RLG
MARINE...DOODY/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 042100
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
400 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT STALLING OFFSHORE WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LOW PRESSURE
TO TRAVEL ALONG EARLY TOMORROW. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL DELIVER A
MIX OF RAIN CHANGING TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A WEAK
COLD FRONT SUNDAY MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS. A COMPLEX COASTAL STORM
SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
OVERALL A RELATIVELY QUIET EVENING AS BRIEF MID/SFC RIDGING TAKES
HOLD. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF DEVELOPING COASTAL WAVE CURRENTLY
DELIVERING PRECIP TO MUCH OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. TEMPS WILL
NOT DROP SIGNIFICANTLY THANKS TO THE COLD AIR REMAINING TRAPPED
MAINLY TO THE N AND W OF THE REGION. THIS MEANS THAT TEMPS ARE
LIKELY ONLY TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S BEFORE PRECIP
BEGINS TO START. MORE ON THE PRECIP/STORM BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...

*** WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR MUCH OF EASTERN MA...NORTHERN
 RI...AND NORTHEAST CT ***

*** WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR NORTHERN CT...SOUTHERN RI AND
 SOUTHEAST MA...AS WELL AS WESTERN MA.

OVERVIEW AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST...INCLUDING TIMING...
UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE WILL BE TAKING ON STRONG NEGATIVE TILT AS IT
APPROACHES THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH EQUATORWARD ENTRANCE REGION OF STRONG UPPER JET TO
DEVELOP COASTAL LOW PRES WAVE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
OFFSHORE. LATEST TRENDS ALL MAKE A MUCH CLOSER PASS WITH THIS WAVE
THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND GIVEN IT HAS A DIRECT CONNECTION TO
BAY OF CAMPECHE AND GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE...THE QPF FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD FURTHER W THAN PREVIOUS PROGS. QPF IS GENERALLY
WELL AGREED UPON AT THIS POINT...AT ODDS ARE THE LOW LVL THERMAL
PROFILES AND HOW QUICKLY/EFFICIENTLY THEY ARE ABLE TO COOL. WHILE
TIMING OF THE TROWAL OVERHEAD IS WELL AGREED UPON...WITH PRECIP
BEGINNING ALONG SE MA ROUND 10PM...THEN SPREADING NW THROUGH ABOUT
2-4AM. HOW QUICKLY IT CHANGES TO SNOW MAINLY AFTER 4AM IS THE
PRIMARY QUESTION. SFC WET-BULBS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW
30S...WHICH ARE MARGINAL. EXPECT GRADUAL CHANGE ACROSS WRN MA/CT
BETWEEN 2-5AM...CENTRAL...NORTHEAST MA AND RI BETWEEN 4 AM AND
7AM...THEN BETWEEN 7 AM AND MID-DAY FOR SE MA. THE TIMING WILL
HAVE MUCH TO DO WITH THE FINAL TOTALS...BUT GIVEN STRONG F-GEN
ABOUT H6 YIELDING LIFT WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH REGIME AROUND
H5...HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES COULD LEAD TO ENOUGH DYNAMIC COOLING TO
OVERCOME THE MARGINAL TEMPERATURES. HENCE THE RISK FOR
HEAVY...WET SNOW DURING THE AM COMMUTE FOR MANY.

QPF AND SNOWFALL...
VERY HIGH PWAT AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE...THE SAME THAT BROUGHT THE
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN LAST NIGHT. LOOKING AT 1.0-1.25 INCH PWATS
/NEARLY 3 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ STRONG F-GEN COMBINED WITH
MODERATE LLJ WILL YIELD QPF VALUES RANGING FROM THE 0.25 INCHES
ACROSS WRN MA/CT TO AS MUCH AS AN INCH+ IN EASTERN MA. SNOWFALL
BASED ON THIS QPF IS TRICKY FOR THE THERMAL REGIONS MENTIONED
ABOVE. CHANGE-OVER TIMING AND LOW RATIOS ARE LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL THIS STORM WOULD OTHERWISE HAVE. HIGHER RATIOS WILL BE
WHERE LOWER QPF IS OBSERVED AND VICE-VERSA. THE PEAK OVERLAP IS
FROM NE CT INTO NRN RI AND EASTERN MA...WHERE FINAL TOTALS OF 6-8
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. 3-6 POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR CENTRAL
MA/CT...SOUTHERN RI AND PORTIONS OF SE MA WITH LESS ON THE OUTER
ARM OF CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS DUE TO THE FACT THESE AREAS WILL
REMAIN RAIN THE LONGEST.

IMPACTS...
DUE TO THE FACT THAT SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LOW WITH THIS STORM...AND
BANDING WITH 1+ INCH/HR RATES ARE POSSIBLE...HEAVY WET SNOW MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES. THIS WILL BE EXACERBATED BY A LLJ
AROUND 40 KT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN SOME OF IT/S MOMENTUM.
THEREFORE...THE COMBINATION OF WIND GUSTS 30-40 MPH AND HEAVY WET
SNOW MAY INCREASE THE RISK.

THE OTHER PRIMARY IMPACT IS THAT THE CHANGE-OVER AND HEAVIEST
PRECIP/SNOW WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THE PEAK HOURS OF THE AM
COMMUTE...WITH LOCALIZED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS.

THE MORE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM IN RELATION TO PREVIOUS
PROGS SUGGEST A SLOWER END AS WELL. ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL BE DRYING THE LOW LEVELS...SO THERE COULD BE A LITTLE BIT OF
SNOW LEFTOVER MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN MA BEFORE THINGS
END BY EARLY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND
* ANOTHER COASTAL STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY OR TUESDAY
* DRY WEATHER RETURNS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL
SWING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY...BUT THE
BEST DYNAMICS/MOISTURE REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO OUR N THAT WE SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO OUR
REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH SETS STAGE FOR POTENTIALLY STORMY
WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE STORM POTENTIAL FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STORM OCCURRING DURING THIS
TIME FRAME BUT DIFFER ON HOW THEY HANDLE THE STORM. EXPECT THIS
STORM TO COME MORE INTO FOCUS IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE
SHORTWAVES MOVE ON TO THE WEST COAST AND ARE BETTER SAMPLED.  HAVE
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SOME SORT OF STORM OCCURRING DURING THIS TIME
FRAME.  HOWEVER...THE DETAILS ARE STILL VERY UNCERTAIN.

12Z ECMWF PRODUCES TWO COASTAL STORMS...ONE OF WHICH WILL PASS WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK ON MONDAY /WITH LITTLE EFFECT ON SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND/...AND THE SECOND OF WHICH PASSES DIRECTLY OVER THE
BENCHMARK ON TUESDAY.  12Z GFS PRODUCES A SINGLE COASTAL SYSTEM THAT
DEVELOPS OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA AND MOVES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TUESDAY.  THIS WOULD RESULT IN WIDELY DIFFERENT TEMPERATURE PROFILES
THAN THE ECMWF.  DUE TO THE WIDE VARIATIONS IN THESE DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS...WE ARE BASING FORECAST MORE ON ENSEMBLES AND WILL
UTILIZE CONSENSUS BLEND TO WORK OUT DETAILS FOR NOW.

THIS RESULTS IN SNOW DEVELOPING LATE MON INTO TUE...BUT DESPITE COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WE WILL PROBABLY BE DEALING WITH WARMTH IN
BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH WILL GIVE US ISSUES WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX OR EVEN
RAIN...PRIMARILY FROM PROVIDENCE AND BOSTON TO CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.
SETUP RIGHT NOW FAVORS HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS INTERIOR...BUT
AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND THERE COULD BE SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS
TO FORECAST IN COMING DAYS.

FOR NOW...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE BUT WE NEED TO SEE HOW THESE TWO
SHORT WAVES EVOLVE AS THEY ENTER WEST COAST AND WORK THEIR WAY
ACROSS COUNTRY.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
AGAIN MODEL SPREAD IS HIGH AT THIS TIME RANGE GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN
HOW MON/TUE EVOLVES. BUT WE DO EXPECT TO SEE DRYING IN WAKE OF
SYSTEM WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WHILE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON HOW THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM PLAYS
OUT...THERE IS AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS ON HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  EXPECT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THROUGH 06Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR...ESPECIALLY ONCE HYA/ACK CLEAR OUT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT GRADUAL SPREAD OF ANOTHER SHIELD OF RAIN FROM S
TO N MAINLY AFTER 00Z.

LATE TONIGHT INTO 18Z TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THE RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO EXPAND NORTHWEST...COVERING MOST OF
SRN NEW ENGLAND BY ABOUT 10-12Z. THIS WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CIGS/VSBYS. THEN...AFTER 09Z
ESPECIALLY THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NW-SE UNTIL IT/S ALL
SNOW AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS BY ABOUT 15Z. SOME ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY SFCS. HOWEVER RUNWAYS MAY RECEIVE
A PLOWABLE AMOUNT MAINLY E OF AN IJD-ORH-BVY LINE. THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS.

AFTER 18Z TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SNOWS/RAIN COME TO AN END AND VERY QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF PRECIP AND CHANGE TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
PRECIP TIMING.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN OR
SNOW...ESPECIALLY LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TONIGHT...
WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT MAINLY TO THE N THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT WITH
BOTH SEAS AND GUSTS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. THEREFORE...LEFTOVER
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE DROPPED BUT IN FAVOR OF A GALE
WARNING...MORE ON THAT BELOW.

TOMORROW...
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS PICK UP THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KT ALONG THE SOUTHERN WATERS...AND 35-45 KT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. SEAS BECOME HIGH...MAINLY 8-10 FT ON THE SE OCEAN WATERS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN/FOG ACROSS THE WATERS WITH A
POSSIBLE CHANGE TO SNOW NEAR THE EASTERN SHORELINES.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD OVER THE WATERS.  SCA LIKELY NEEDED FOR
LINGERING SEAS.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS MAINLY
BELOW SCA. LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS SATURDAY MORNING.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. EXPECT INCREASING N/NE WINDS
AHEAD OF COASTAL LOW. SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH 25-30KT GUSTS AND
SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT OR HIGHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR CTZ004.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     CTZ002-003.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     MAZ019>022.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     MAZ004>007-012>018-026.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     MAZ011.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     RIZ003-004-006-007.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR RIZ001-
     002.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ230-
     236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/RLG
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...DOODY/RLG
MARINE...DOODY/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 041745
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1245 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING
SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON...THEN LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MID
ATLC COAST THU NIGHT AND TRACK ALONG THE FRONT PASSING SOUTH AND
EAST OF NANTUCKET FRIDAY. THIS STORM WILL LIKELY BRING ACCUMULATING
SNOW TO SOUTHEAST NEW ENG LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A WEAK
COLD FRONT SUNDAY MAY BRING A FEW CLOUD. A COMPLEX COASTAL STORM
SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1 PM UPDATE...
HAVE EXPANDED WATCH TO INCLUDE METRO-WEST BOSTON AND THE REMAINDER
OF RI AND NE CT. THIS IS DUE TO RECENT TREND SHIFTING QPF AXIS
FURTHER W AND SUGGESTING A SLIGHTLY FASTER DROP IN TEMPS ALOFT
SUPPORTING A CHANGE TO SNOW. MORE ADJUSTMENTS TO COME...BUT
EXPANSION EARLY DEEMED NECESSARY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEAK 850 MB TROUGH WILL MOVE THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 12-
18Z. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW SCT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. STRONG CAA
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP SEVERAL DEGREES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THEREFOR ANTICIPATE MAX TEMPS TO OCCUR THIS
MORNING.

THIS COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFFSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
NORTHERN ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
PRECIP DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...

*** WINTER STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR FAR SE MASS...SOUTH AND EASTERN
 RHODE ISLAND...CAPE COD AND MARTHAS VINEYARD ***

OVERVIEW...

COLD FRONT STALLED OFF THE COAST WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. VERY SHARP MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...AND WITH POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
TROUGH A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS
LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE STALL COLD FRONT PUSHING THE PRECIP SHIELD
BACK TOWARDS THE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW.

UNCERTAINTY...

STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH THE
PRECIP SHIELD FARTHER WEST WITH EACH RUN. HOWEVER SOME HI-RES
GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A EXTREME CUT-OFF IN QPF KEEPING THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE REGION PRECIP FREE. ASIDE FROM QPF...THERE IS SOME QUESTION
ON WHEN RAIN WILL SWITCH OVER TO SNOW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER GUIDANCE DOES HINT THAT IT WILL BE BETWEEN
06-09Z. THIS IS IN LINE WHEN 925 MB TEMPS QUICKLY COOL BELOW 0C AS
WINDS BECOME MORE IN A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. FINALLY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
ARE IN QUESTION AS THE LATEST EC AND 18Z NAM ARE ON THE HIGH SIDE
SHOWING LOCATIONS ACROSS RI AND SE MASS REACHING BETWEEN 7-10
INCHES. AT THIS TIME...HAVE A HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATION FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN AND LOCATIONS NEAR THE CANAL.
LESS CONFIDENCE ON THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE SNOW SHIELD AS
WELL AS LONG THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

QPF...

THERE APPEARS TO BE 2 DIFFERENT CAMPS IN TERMS OF QPF. THE
UKMET/EC/NAM IS ONE BRINGING SIGNIFICANT QPF AND THUS SNOW INTO
SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN AND ACROSS SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND. WHILE THE
NMM AND ARW ARE ON THE OPPOSITE...KEEPING THE HEAVIEST QPF OVER THE
CAPE AND IMMEDIATE PORTION OF SE MASS WITH AN EXTREME CUTOFF NORTH
OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD ALONG WITH THE EPS. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE WITH AN
EMPHASIS ON WPC QPF TO GET A TREND...WHICH SHOWS THAT THE 00Z
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD.

SNOWFALL...

DECIDED TO EXPAND THE THE WATCH DUE TO THE WESTWARD SHIFT WITH THE
GUIDANCE. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF 6 INCHES IS NEAR THE CAPE COD CANAL
AS WELL AS INTERIOR BRISTOL...PLYMOUTH AND WASHINGTON COUNTY RHODE
ISLAND. SNOW COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING WHICH MAY AFFECT THE MORNING COMMUTE. THANKS TO STRONG OMEGA
LIFT WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION AS WELL AS F-GEN AS NOTED AT THE
600MB LEVEL. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS YIELDING
CLOSE TO 1 INCH PER HOUR...REDUCING VSBYS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.
LOCATIONS ACROSS NANTUCKET AND THE OUTER CAPE WILL SEE LESS SNOWFALL
DUE TO LATER TIMING OF CHANGEOVER AND MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH
WILL LEAD TO SOME MELTING.

AGAIN WITH THE SHARP QPF GRADIENT ON THE NW FRINGE OF THE PRECIP
SHIELD THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BUST. AS THE PREV FORECASTER
MENTIONED...IF THE SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD THEN ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LESS. WHILE IF THE SYSTEM TRACKS FARTHER WEST...THEN HEAVY SNOW
COULD EXTEND BACK WESTWARD...WHICH IS WHAT THE LATEST TRENDS HAVE
SHOWN. RECOMMEND USERS TO LOOK AT THE PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL MAPS
AND BEST/WORST CASE SCENARIOS WHICH COMMUNICATE THE EXPECTED
SNOWFALL RANGES.

IMPACTS...

THIS WILL BE A WET SNOW AND IF HEAVY SNOW MATERIALIZES THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR POWER OUTAGES DUE TO ACCUMULATION ON TREES AND POWER
LINES.

SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN TO WANE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE MARITIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

LONGWAVE SCALE PATTERN SHOWS DIGGING TROUGH EAST AND BUILDING RIDGE
WEST. THIS POINTS TO COLDER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE
WEEKEND AND FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE EASTERN TROUGH WITH CONTINUED VARIATIONS BETWEEN
MODELS ESPECIALLY ON POSITIONS AND EFFECTS.

TWO KEY SHORTWAVES ARE EITHER OVER THE PACIFIC OR JUST MOVING ASHORE
OVER THE WESTERN USA AND ITS DENSER OBSERVATION NETWORK. THEREFORE
CHANGEABLE RUN-RUN DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE TO BE EXPECTED.
CONFIDENCE FOR THE EVOLVING WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAINS LOW.

THE DAILIES...

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT AND INCREASING MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS SATURDAY. OBSERVED TEMPS UPSTREAM UNDER THE RIDGE
SUGGEST MIN TEMPS HERE IN THE 20S. MIXING SHOULD REACH A LITTLE
ABOVE 900 MB...WITH TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER SUPPORTING MAX SFC
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S.

SUNDAY... NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SWEEPS SOUTH AND EAST FROM
CENTRAL CANADA TO QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS DRIVES A COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR AREA EARLY SUNDAY. MOISTURE FIELDS ARE MORE ROBUST IN
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS IS THE DYNAMICS. EXPECT SOME SKY COVER LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND PART OF SUNDAY BUT AT BEST SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
MORNING SNOW SHOWERS. MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS MAX SFC TEMPS INTO
THE 40S. BUT AFTERNOON MIXING SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
30S. WILL NUDGE MODEL FORECAST DOWN 1-2 DEGREES.

MONDAY-TUESDAY... SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE STARTS TODAY OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CROSSES TO THE SOUTHEAST USA...FORMING A
CLOSED UPPER LOW ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY.  THE LOW THEN
PASSES WELL OFFSHORE OF NANTUCKET ON MONDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE
UPPER LOW DIVERGE BY SUNDAY WITH THE ECMWF FARTHEST WEST AND CLOSEST
TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. IN MOST CASES THE CLOUDS AND PCPN STAY WELL
OFFSHORE. BUT THE ECMWF IS CLOSE ENOUGH AND BRINGS ENOUGH OF AN EAST
FLOW TO BRING MEASURABLE PCPN TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS IT IS
THE OUTLIER SOLUTION WE WOULD TEND TO DISCOUNT IT. BUT WITH
DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST/APPALACHIANS AND BENDING OF THE
FLOW MORE UP THE COAST...A MORE WESTERN TRACK IS IN THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. WE WILL BRING SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AND VERY-LOW-END CHANCE
POPS TO CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE STARTS SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS THIS MORNING AND
MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT TO THE WESTERN LAKES
SUNDAY. IT THEN DIGS AND CARVES A DEEP TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE
EASTERN USA WITH A SOUTH-TO-NORTH FLOW OVER THE EASTERN USA BY
MONDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN LOOKS TO BE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES BEHIND SUNDAY/S FRONT AND
WITH THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH SUGGEST MAINLY SNOW. UNCERTAINTIES IN
THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE SYSTEM LEAVE THE CHANCE OF
A CHANGE TO RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY... YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE TROUGH AND
KICKS IT NORTHEAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MARITIMES. THIS
SHOULD BRING DRYING AND IMPROVING SKIES BUT WITH LINGERING WIDELY
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AS THE COLD POOL SWINGS OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THROUGH 06Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR...ESPECIALLY ONCE HYA/ACK CLEAR OUT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT GRADUAL SPREAD OF ANOTHER SHIELD OF RAIN FROM S
TO N MAINLY AFTER 00Z.

LATE TONIGHT INTO 18Z TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THE RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO EXPAND NORTHWEST...COVERING MOST OF
SRN NEW ENGLAND BY ABOUT 10-12Z. THIS WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CIGS/VSBYS. THEN...AFTER 09Z
ESPECIALLY THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NW-SE UNTIL IT/S ALL
SNOW AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS BY ABOUT 15Z. SOME ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY SFCS. HOWEVER RUNWAYS MAY RECEIVE
A PLOWABLE AMOUNT MAINLY E OF AN IJD-ORH-BVY LINE. THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS.

AFTER 18Z TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SNOWS/RAIN COME TO AN END AND VERY QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF PRECIP AND CHANGE TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
PRECIP TIMING.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN DEVELOPING
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HAVE DROPPED GALE WARNING FOR ALL THE WATERS AND CONVERTED THEM TO
SCA. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS TODAY AND STALL OUT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY BRINGING PRECIP AND PERHAPS SNOW OVER THE WATERS.
VSBYS MAY BE REDUCED AS WELL. GUSTS WILL INCREASE CLOSE TO 25-30
KTS SO EXPECT SCA TO EXPAND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...

FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.  NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FEET WILL ALSO DIMINISH. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST THE OUTER WATERS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY BECOME NORTHWEST SUNDAY
AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE WATERS. A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY EAST OF CAPE ANN. SEAS 5 TO 6 FEET MAINLY ON
THE OUTER WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...NORTH WINDS TURNING NORTHEAST AND INCREASING
WITH GUSTS TO AT LEAST 30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FEET
INITIALLY...BUT THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR FEB 4TH...

BOS...64/1991
BDL...64/1991
PVD...66/1991
ORH...61/1991

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR CTZ004.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR MAZ012-013-015>023.
RI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DOODY
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 041745
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1245 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING
SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON...THEN LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MID
ATLC COAST THU NIGHT AND TRACK ALONG THE FRONT PASSING SOUTH AND
EAST OF NANTUCKET FRIDAY. THIS STORM WILL LIKELY BRING ACCUMULATING
SNOW TO SOUTHEAST NEW ENG LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A WEAK
COLD FRONT SUNDAY MAY BRING A FEW CLOUD. A COMPLEX COASTAL STORM
SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1 PM UPDATE...
HAVE EXPANDED WATCH TO INCLUDE METRO-WEST BOSTON AND THE REMAINDER
OF RI AND NE CT. THIS IS DUE TO RECENT TREND SHIFTING QPF AXIS
FURTHER W AND SUGGESTING A SLIGHTLY FASTER DROP IN TEMPS ALOFT
SUPPORTING A CHANGE TO SNOW. MORE ADJUSTMENTS TO COME...BUT
EXPANSION EARLY DEEMED NECESSARY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEAK 850 MB TROUGH WILL MOVE THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 12-
18Z. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW SCT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. STRONG CAA
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP SEVERAL DEGREES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THEREFOR ANTICIPATE MAX TEMPS TO OCCUR THIS
MORNING.

THIS COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFFSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
NORTHERN ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
PRECIP DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...

*** WINTER STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR FAR SE MASS...SOUTH AND EASTERN
 RHODE ISLAND...CAPE COD AND MARTHAS VINEYARD ***

OVERVIEW...

COLD FRONT STALLED OFF THE COAST WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. VERY SHARP MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...AND WITH POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
TROUGH A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS
LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE STALL COLD FRONT PUSHING THE PRECIP SHIELD
BACK TOWARDS THE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW.

UNCERTAINTY...

STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH THE
PRECIP SHIELD FARTHER WEST WITH EACH RUN. HOWEVER SOME HI-RES
GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A EXTREME CUT-OFF IN QPF KEEPING THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE REGION PRECIP FREE. ASIDE FROM QPF...THERE IS SOME QUESTION
ON WHEN RAIN WILL SWITCH OVER TO SNOW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER GUIDANCE DOES HINT THAT IT WILL BE BETWEEN
06-09Z. THIS IS IN LINE WHEN 925 MB TEMPS QUICKLY COOL BELOW 0C AS
WINDS BECOME MORE IN A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. FINALLY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
ARE IN QUESTION AS THE LATEST EC AND 18Z NAM ARE ON THE HIGH SIDE
SHOWING LOCATIONS ACROSS RI AND SE MASS REACHING BETWEEN 7-10
INCHES. AT THIS TIME...HAVE A HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATION FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN AND LOCATIONS NEAR THE CANAL.
LESS CONFIDENCE ON THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE SNOW SHIELD AS
WELL AS LONG THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

QPF...

THERE APPEARS TO BE 2 DIFFERENT CAMPS IN TERMS OF QPF. THE
UKMET/EC/NAM IS ONE BRINGING SIGNIFICANT QPF AND THUS SNOW INTO
SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN AND ACROSS SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND. WHILE THE
NMM AND ARW ARE ON THE OPPOSITE...KEEPING THE HEAVIEST QPF OVER THE
CAPE AND IMMEDIATE PORTION OF SE MASS WITH AN EXTREME CUTOFF NORTH
OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD ALONG WITH THE EPS. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE WITH AN
EMPHASIS ON WPC QPF TO GET A TREND...WHICH SHOWS THAT THE 00Z
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD.

SNOWFALL...

DECIDED TO EXPAND THE THE WATCH DUE TO THE WESTWARD SHIFT WITH THE
GUIDANCE. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF 6 INCHES IS NEAR THE CAPE COD CANAL
AS WELL AS INTERIOR BRISTOL...PLYMOUTH AND WASHINGTON COUNTY RHODE
ISLAND. SNOW COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING WHICH MAY AFFECT THE MORNING COMMUTE. THANKS TO STRONG OMEGA
LIFT WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION AS WELL AS F-GEN AS NOTED AT THE
600MB LEVEL. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS YIELDING
CLOSE TO 1 INCH PER HOUR...REDUCING VSBYS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.
LOCATIONS ACROSS NANTUCKET AND THE OUTER CAPE WILL SEE LESS SNOWFALL
DUE TO LATER TIMING OF CHANGEOVER AND MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH
WILL LEAD TO SOME MELTING.

AGAIN WITH THE SHARP QPF GRADIENT ON THE NW FRINGE OF THE PRECIP
SHIELD THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BUST. AS THE PREV FORECASTER
MENTIONED...IF THE SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD THEN ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LESS. WHILE IF THE SYSTEM TRACKS FARTHER WEST...THEN HEAVY SNOW
COULD EXTEND BACK WESTWARD...WHICH IS WHAT THE LATEST TRENDS HAVE
SHOWN. RECOMMEND USERS TO LOOK AT THE PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL MAPS
AND BEST/WORST CASE SCENARIOS WHICH COMMUNICATE THE EXPECTED
SNOWFALL RANGES.

IMPACTS...

THIS WILL BE A WET SNOW AND IF HEAVY SNOW MATERIALIZES THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR POWER OUTAGES DUE TO ACCUMULATION ON TREES AND POWER
LINES.

SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN TO WANE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE MARITIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

LONGWAVE SCALE PATTERN SHOWS DIGGING TROUGH EAST AND BUILDING RIDGE
WEST. THIS POINTS TO COLDER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE
WEEKEND AND FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE EASTERN TROUGH WITH CONTINUED VARIATIONS BETWEEN
MODELS ESPECIALLY ON POSITIONS AND EFFECTS.

TWO KEY SHORTWAVES ARE EITHER OVER THE PACIFIC OR JUST MOVING ASHORE
OVER THE WESTERN USA AND ITS DENSER OBSERVATION NETWORK. THEREFORE
CHANGEABLE RUN-RUN DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE TO BE EXPECTED.
CONFIDENCE FOR THE EVOLVING WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAINS LOW.

THE DAILIES...

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT AND INCREASING MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS SATURDAY. OBSERVED TEMPS UPSTREAM UNDER THE RIDGE
SUGGEST MIN TEMPS HERE IN THE 20S. MIXING SHOULD REACH A LITTLE
ABOVE 900 MB...WITH TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER SUPPORTING MAX SFC
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S.

SUNDAY... NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SWEEPS SOUTH AND EAST FROM
CENTRAL CANADA TO QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS DRIVES A COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR AREA EARLY SUNDAY. MOISTURE FIELDS ARE MORE ROBUST IN
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS IS THE DYNAMICS. EXPECT SOME SKY COVER LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND PART OF SUNDAY BUT AT BEST SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
MORNING SNOW SHOWERS. MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS MAX SFC TEMPS INTO
THE 40S. BUT AFTERNOON MIXING SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
30S. WILL NUDGE MODEL FORECAST DOWN 1-2 DEGREES.

MONDAY-TUESDAY... SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE STARTS TODAY OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CROSSES TO THE SOUTHEAST USA...FORMING A
CLOSED UPPER LOW ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY.  THE LOW THEN
PASSES WELL OFFSHORE OF NANTUCKET ON MONDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE
UPPER LOW DIVERGE BY SUNDAY WITH THE ECMWF FARTHEST WEST AND CLOSEST
TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. IN MOST CASES THE CLOUDS AND PCPN STAY WELL
OFFSHORE. BUT THE ECMWF IS CLOSE ENOUGH AND BRINGS ENOUGH OF AN EAST
FLOW TO BRING MEASURABLE PCPN TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS IT IS
THE OUTLIER SOLUTION WE WOULD TEND TO DISCOUNT IT. BUT WITH
DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST/APPALACHIANS AND BENDING OF THE
FLOW MORE UP THE COAST...A MORE WESTERN TRACK IS IN THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. WE WILL BRING SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AND VERY-LOW-END CHANCE
POPS TO CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE STARTS SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS THIS MORNING AND
MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT TO THE WESTERN LAKES
SUNDAY. IT THEN DIGS AND CARVES A DEEP TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE
EASTERN USA WITH A SOUTH-TO-NORTH FLOW OVER THE EASTERN USA BY
MONDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN LOOKS TO BE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES BEHIND SUNDAY/S FRONT AND
WITH THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH SUGGEST MAINLY SNOW. UNCERTAINTIES IN
THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE SYSTEM LEAVE THE CHANCE OF
A CHANGE TO RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY... YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE TROUGH AND
KICKS IT NORTHEAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MARITIMES. THIS
SHOULD BRING DRYING AND IMPROVING SKIES BUT WITH LINGERING WIDELY
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AS THE COLD POOL SWINGS OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THROUGH 06Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR...ESPECIALLY ONCE HYA/ACK CLEAR OUT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT GRADUAL SPREAD OF ANOTHER SHIELD OF RAIN FROM S
TO N MAINLY AFTER 00Z.

LATE TONIGHT INTO 18Z TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THE RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO EXPAND NORTHWEST...COVERING MOST OF
SRN NEW ENGLAND BY ABOUT 10-12Z. THIS WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CIGS/VSBYS. THEN...AFTER 09Z
ESPECIALLY THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NW-SE UNTIL IT/S ALL
SNOW AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS BY ABOUT 15Z. SOME ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY SFCS. HOWEVER RUNWAYS MAY RECEIVE
A PLOWABLE AMOUNT MAINLY E OF AN IJD-ORH-BVY LINE. THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS.

AFTER 18Z TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SNOWS/RAIN COME TO AN END AND VERY QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF PRECIP AND CHANGE TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
PRECIP TIMING.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN DEVELOPING
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HAVE DROPPED GALE WARNING FOR ALL THE WATERS AND CONVERTED THEM TO
SCA. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS TODAY AND STALL OUT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY BRINGING PRECIP AND PERHAPS SNOW OVER THE WATERS.
VSBYS MAY BE REDUCED AS WELL. GUSTS WILL INCREASE CLOSE TO 25-30
KTS SO EXPECT SCA TO EXPAND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...

FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.  NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FEET WILL ALSO DIMINISH. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST THE OUTER WATERS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY BECOME NORTHWEST SUNDAY
AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE WATERS. A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY EAST OF CAPE ANN. SEAS 5 TO 6 FEET MAINLY ON
THE OUTER WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...NORTH WINDS TURNING NORTHEAST AND INCREASING
WITH GUSTS TO AT LEAST 30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FEET
INITIALLY...BUT THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR FEB 4TH...

BOS...64/1991
BDL...64/1991
PVD...66/1991
ORH...61/1991

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR CTZ004.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR MAZ012-013-015>023.
RI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DOODY
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 041745
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1245 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING
SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON...THEN LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MID
ATLC COAST THU NIGHT AND TRACK ALONG THE FRONT PASSING SOUTH AND
EAST OF NANTUCKET FRIDAY. THIS STORM WILL LIKELY BRING ACCUMULATING
SNOW TO SOUTHEAST NEW ENG LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A WEAK
COLD FRONT SUNDAY MAY BRING A FEW CLOUD. A COMPLEX COASTAL STORM
SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1 PM UPDATE...
HAVE EXPANDED WATCH TO INCLUDE METRO-WEST BOSTON AND THE REMAINDER
OF RI AND NE CT. THIS IS DUE TO RECENT TREND SHIFTING QPF AXIS
FURTHER W AND SUGGESTING A SLIGHTLY FASTER DROP IN TEMPS ALOFT
SUPPORTING A CHANGE TO SNOW. MORE ADJUSTMENTS TO COME...BUT
EXPANSION EARLY DEEMED NECESSARY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEAK 850 MB TROUGH WILL MOVE THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 12-
18Z. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW SCT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. STRONG CAA
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP SEVERAL DEGREES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THEREFOR ANTICIPATE MAX TEMPS TO OCCUR THIS
MORNING.

THIS COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFFSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
NORTHERN ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
PRECIP DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...

*** WINTER STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR FAR SE MASS...SOUTH AND EASTERN
 RHODE ISLAND...CAPE COD AND MARTHAS VINEYARD ***

OVERVIEW...

COLD FRONT STALLED OFF THE COAST WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. VERY SHARP MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...AND WITH POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
TROUGH A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS
LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE STALL COLD FRONT PUSHING THE PRECIP SHIELD
BACK TOWARDS THE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW.

UNCERTAINTY...

STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH THE
PRECIP SHIELD FARTHER WEST WITH EACH RUN. HOWEVER SOME HI-RES
GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A EXTREME CUT-OFF IN QPF KEEPING THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE REGION PRECIP FREE. ASIDE FROM QPF...THERE IS SOME QUESTION
ON WHEN RAIN WILL SWITCH OVER TO SNOW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER GUIDANCE DOES HINT THAT IT WILL BE BETWEEN
06-09Z. THIS IS IN LINE WHEN 925 MB TEMPS QUICKLY COOL BELOW 0C AS
WINDS BECOME MORE IN A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. FINALLY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
ARE IN QUESTION AS THE LATEST EC AND 18Z NAM ARE ON THE HIGH SIDE
SHOWING LOCATIONS ACROSS RI AND SE MASS REACHING BETWEEN 7-10
INCHES. AT THIS TIME...HAVE A HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATION FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN AND LOCATIONS NEAR THE CANAL.
LESS CONFIDENCE ON THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE SNOW SHIELD AS
WELL AS LONG THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

QPF...

THERE APPEARS TO BE 2 DIFFERENT CAMPS IN TERMS OF QPF. THE
UKMET/EC/NAM IS ONE BRINGING SIGNIFICANT QPF AND THUS SNOW INTO
SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN AND ACROSS SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND. WHILE THE
NMM AND ARW ARE ON THE OPPOSITE...KEEPING THE HEAVIEST QPF OVER THE
CAPE AND IMMEDIATE PORTION OF SE MASS WITH AN EXTREME CUTOFF NORTH
OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD ALONG WITH THE EPS. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE WITH AN
EMPHASIS ON WPC QPF TO GET A TREND...WHICH SHOWS THAT THE 00Z
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD.

SNOWFALL...

DECIDED TO EXPAND THE THE WATCH DUE TO THE WESTWARD SHIFT WITH THE
GUIDANCE. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF 6 INCHES IS NEAR THE CAPE COD CANAL
AS WELL AS INTERIOR BRISTOL...PLYMOUTH AND WASHINGTON COUNTY RHODE
ISLAND. SNOW COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING WHICH MAY AFFECT THE MORNING COMMUTE. THANKS TO STRONG OMEGA
LIFT WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION AS WELL AS F-GEN AS NOTED AT THE
600MB LEVEL. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS YIELDING
CLOSE TO 1 INCH PER HOUR...REDUCING VSBYS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.
LOCATIONS ACROSS NANTUCKET AND THE OUTER CAPE WILL SEE LESS SNOWFALL
DUE TO LATER TIMING OF CHANGEOVER AND MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH
WILL LEAD TO SOME MELTING.

AGAIN WITH THE SHARP QPF GRADIENT ON THE NW FRINGE OF THE PRECIP
SHIELD THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BUST. AS THE PREV FORECASTER
MENTIONED...IF THE SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD THEN ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LESS. WHILE IF THE SYSTEM TRACKS FARTHER WEST...THEN HEAVY SNOW
COULD EXTEND BACK WESTWARD...WHICH IS WHAT THE LATEST TRENDS HAVE
SHOWN. RECOMMEND USERS TO LOOK AT THE PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL MAPS
AND BEST/WORST CASE SCENARIOS WHICH COMMUNICATE THE EXPECTED
SNOWFALL RANGES.

IMPACTS...

THIS WILL BE A WET SNOW AND IF HEAVY SNOW MATERIALIZES THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR POWER OUTAGES DUE TO ACCUMULATION ON TREES AND POWER
LINES.

SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN TO WANE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE MARITIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

LONGWAVE SCALE PATTERN SHOWS DIGGING TROUGH EAST AND BUILDING RIDGE
WEST. THIS POINTS TO COLDER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE
WEEKEND AND FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE EASTERN TROUGH WITH CONTINUED VARIATIONS BETWEEN
MODELS ESPECIALLY ON POSITIONS AND EFFECTS.

TWO KEY SHORTWAVES ARE EITHER OVER THE PACIFIC OR JUST MOVING ASHORE
OVER THE WESTERN USA AND ITS DENSER OBSERVATION NETWORK. THEREFORE
CHANGEABLE RUN-RUN DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE TO BE EXPECTED.
CONFIDENCE FOR THE EVOLVING WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAINS LOW.

THE DAILIES...

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT AND INCREASING MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS SATURDAY. OBSERVED TEMPS UPSTREAM UNDER THE RIDGE
SUGGEST MIN TEMPS HERE IN THE 20S. MIXING SHOULD REACH A LITTLE
ABOVE 900 MB...WITH TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER SUPPORTING MAX SFC
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S.

SUNDAY... NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SWEEPS SOUTH AND EAST FROM
CENTRAL CANADA TO QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS DRIVES A COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR AREA EARLY SUNDAY. MOISTURE FIELDS ARE MORE ROBUST IN
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS IS THE DYNAMICS. EXPECT SOME SKY COVER LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND PART OF SUNDAY BUT AT BEST SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
MORNING SNOW SHOWERS. MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS MAX SFC TEMPS INTO
THE 40S. BUT AFTERNOON MIXING SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
30S. WILL NUDGE MODEL FORECAST DOWN 1-2 DEGREES.

MONDAY-TUESDAY... SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE STARTS TODAY OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CROSSES TO THE SOUTHEAST USA...FORMING A
CLOSED UPPER LOW ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY.  THE LOW THEN
PASSES WELL OFFSHORE OF NANTUCKET ON MONDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE
UPPER LOW DIVERGE BY SUNDAY WITH THE ECMWF FARTHEST WEST AND CLOSEST
TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. IN MOST CASES THE CLOUDS AND PCPN STAY WELL
OFFSHORE. BUT THE ECMWF IS CLOSE ENOUGH AND BRINGS ENOUGH OF AN EAST
FLOW TO BRING MEASURABLE PCPN TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS IT IS
THE OUTLIER SOLUTION WE WOULD TEND TO DISCOUNT IT. BUT WITH
DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST/APPALACHIANS AND BENDING OF THE
FLOW MORE UP THE COAST...A MORE WESTERN TRACK IS IN THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. WE WILL BRING SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AND VERY-LOW-END CHANCE
POPS TO CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE STARTS SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS THIS MORNING AND
MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT TO THE WESTERN LAKES
SUNDAY. IT THEN DIGS AND CARVES A DEEP TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE
EASTERN USA WITH A SOUTH-TO-NORTH FLOW OVER THE EASTERN USA BY
MONDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN LOOKS TO BE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES BEHIND SUNDAY/S FRONT AND
WITH THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH SUGGEST MAINLY SNOW. UNCERTAINTIES IN
THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE SYSTEM LEAVE THE CHANCE OF
A CHANGE TO RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY... YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE TROUGH AND
KICKS IT NORTHEAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MARITIMES. THIS
SHOULD BRING DRYING AND IMPROVING SKIES BUT WITH LINGERING WIDELY
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AS THE COLD POOL SWINGS OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THROUGH 06Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR...ESPECIALLY ONCE HYA/ACK CLEAR OUT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT GRADUAL SPREAD OF ANOTHER SHIELD OF RAIN FROM S
TO N MAINLY AFTER 00Z.

LATE TONIGHT INTO 18Z TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THE RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO EXPAND NORTHWEST...COVERING MOST OF
SRN NEW ENGLAND BY ABOUT 10-12Z. THIS WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CIGS/VSBYS. THEN...AFTER 09Z
ESPECIALLY THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NW-SE UNTIL IT/S ALL
SNOW AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS BY ABOUT 15Z. SOME ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY SFCS. HOWEVER RUNWAYS MAY RECEIVE
A PLOWABLE AMOUNT MAINLY E OF AN IJD-ORH-BVY LINE. THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS.

AFTER 18Z TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SNOWS/RAIN COME TO AN END AND VERY QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
EXPECTED.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF PRECIP AND CHANGE TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
PRECIP TIMING.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN DEVELOPING
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HAVE DROPPED GALE WARNING FOR ALL THE WATERS AND CONVERTED THEM TO
SCA. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS TODAY AND STALL OUT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY BRINGING PRECIP AND PERHAPS SNOW OVER THE WATERS.
VSBYS MAY BE REDUCED AS WELL. GUSTS WILL INCREASE CLOSE TO 25-30
KTS SO EXPECT SCA TO EXPAND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...

FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.  NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FEET WILL ALSO DIMINISH. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST THE OUTER WATERS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY BECOME NORTHWEST SUNDAY
AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE WATERS. A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY EAST OF CAPE ANN. SEAS 5 TO 6 FEET MAINLY ON
THE OUTER WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...NORTH WINDS TURNING NORTHEAST AND INCREASING
WITH GUSTS TO AT LEAST 30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FEET
INITIALLY...BUT THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR FEB 4TH...

BOS...64/1991
BDL...64/1991
PVD...66/1991
ORH...61/1991

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR CTZ004.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR MAZ012-013-015>023.
RI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DOODY
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 041459
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
959 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING
SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON...THEN LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MID
ATLC COAST THU NIGHT AND TRACK ALONG THE FRONT PASSING SOUTH AND
EAST OF NANTUCKET FRIDAY. THIS STORM WILL LIKELY BRING ACCUMULATING
SNOW TO SOUTHEAST NEW ENG LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A WEAK
COLD FRONT SUNDAY MAY BRING A FEW CLOUD. A COMPLEX COASTAL STORM
SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...
WEAK BAND OF ECHOES BETWEEN 15-20DBZ JUST W OF PVD AND NOW THROUGH
BOS MARKS THE COLD FRONT WHICH CONTINUES TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION THIS MORNING. THE PRECIP SHIELD ENDS WITHIN MINUTES OF THIS
FROPA. CURRENT TIMING PUSHES IT OFFSHORE BY ABOUT NOON FOR THE
CAPE/ISLANDS. TIMING OF POPS WERE UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS
THINKING. ALSO AJDUSTED TEMPS/DWPTS AS THEY BEGIN TO DROP BEHIND
THE EASTWARD MOVING FRONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEAK 850 MB TROUGH WILL MOVE THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 12-
18Z. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW SCT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. STRONG CAA
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP SEVERAL DEGREES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THEREFOR ANTICIPATE MAX TEMPS TO OCCUR THIS
MORNING.

THIS COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFFSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
NORTHERN ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
PRECIP DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...

*** WINTER STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR FAR SE MASS...SOUTH AND EASTERN
 RHODE ISLAND...CAPE COD AND MARTHAS VINEYARD ***

OVERVIEW...

COLD FRONT STALLED OFF THE COAST WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. VERY SHARP MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...AND WITH POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
TROUGH A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS
LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE STALL COLD FRONT PUSHING THE PRECIP SHIELD
BACK TOWARDS THE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW.

UNCERTAINTY...

STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH THE
PRECIP SHIELD FARTHER WEST WITH EACH RUN. HOWEVER SOME HI-RES
GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A EXTREME CUT-OFF IN QPF KEEPING THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE REGION PRECIP FREE. ASIDE FROM QPF...THERE IS SOME QUESTION
ON WHEN RAIN WILL SWITCH OVER TO SNOW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER GUIDANCE DOES HINT THAT IT WILL BE BETWEEN
06-09Z. THIS IS IN LINE WHEN 925 MB TEMPS QUICKLY COOL BELOW 0C AS
WINDS BECOME MORE IN A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. FINALLY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
ARE IN QUESTION AS THE LATEST EC AND 18Z NAM ARE ON THE HIGH SIDE
SHOWING LOCATIONS ACROSS RI AND SE MASS REACHING BETWEEN 7-10
INCHES. AT THIS TIME...HAVE A HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATION FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN AND LOCATIONS NEAR THE CANAL.
LESS CONFIDENCE ON THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE SNOW SHIELD AS
WELL AS LONG THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

QPF...

THERE APPEARS TO BE 2 DIFFERENT CAMPS IN TERMS OF QPF. THE
UKMET/EC/NAM IS ONE BRINGING SIGNIFICANT QPF AND THUS SNOW INTO
SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN AND ACROSS SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND. WHILE THE
NMM AND ARW ARE ON THE OPPOSITE...KEEPING THE HEAVIEST QPF OVER THE
CAPE AND IMMEDIATE PORTION OF SE MASS WITH AN EXTREME CUTOFF NORTH
OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD ALONG WITH THE EPS. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE WITH AN
EMPHASIS ON WPC QPF TO GET A TREND...WHICH SHOWS THAT THE 00Z
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD.

SNOWFALL...

DECIDED TO EXPAND THE THE WATCH DUE TO THE WESTWARD SHIFT WITH THE
GUIDANCE. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF 6 INCHES IS NEAR THE CAPE COD CANAL
AS WELL AS INTERIOR BRISTOL...PLYMOUTH AND WASHINGTON COUNTY RHODE
ISLAND. SNOW COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING WHICH MAY AFFECT THE MORNING COMMUTE. THANKS TO STRONG OMEGA
LIFT WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION AS WELL AS F-GEN AS NOTED AT THE
600MB LEVEL. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS YIELDING
CLOSE TO 1 INCH PER HOUR...REDUCING VSBYS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.
LOCATIONS ACROSS NANTUCKET AND THE OUTER CAPE WILL SEE LESS SNOWFALL
DUE TO LATER TIMING OF CHANGEOVER AND MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH
WILL LEAD TO SOME MELTING.

AGAIN WITH THE SHARP QPF GRADIENT ON THE NW FRINGE OF THE PRECIP
SHIELD THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BUST. AS THE PREV FORECASTER
MENTIONED...IF THE SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD THEN ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LESS. WHILE IF THE SYSTEM TRACKS FARTHER WEST...THEN HEAVY SNOW
COULD EXTEND BACK WESTWARD...WHICH IS WHAT THE LATEST TRENDS HAVE
SHOWN. RECOMMEND USERS TO LOOK AT THE PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL MAPS
AND BEST/WORST CASE SCENARIOS WHICH COMMUNICATE THE EXPECTED
SNOWFALL RANGES.

IMPACTS...

THIS WILL BE A WET SNOW AND IF HEAVY SNOW MATERIALIZES THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR POWER OUTAGES DUE TO ACCUMULATION ON TREES AND POWER
LINES.

SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN TO WANE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE MARITIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

LONGWAVE SCALE PATTERN SHOWS DIGGING TROUGH EAST AND BUILDING RIDGE
WEST. THIS POINTS TO COLDER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE
WEEKEND AND FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE EASTERN TROUGH WITH CONTINUED VARIATIONS BETWEEN
MODELS ESPECIALLY ON POSITIONS AND EFFECTS.

TWO KEY SHORTWAVES ARE EITHER OVER THE PACIFIC OR JUST MOVING ASHORE
OVER THE WESTERN USA AND ITS DENSER OBSERVATION NETWORK. THEREFORE
CHANGEABLE RUN-RUN DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE TO BE EXPECTED.
CONFIDENCE FOR THE EVOLVING WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAINS LOW.

THE DAILIES...

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT AND INCREASING MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS SATURDAY. OBSERVED TEMPS UPSTREAM UNDER THE RIDGE
SUGGEST MIN TEMPS HERE IN THE 20S. MIXING SHOULD REACH A LITTLE
ABOVE 900 MB...WITH TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER SUPPORTING MAX SFC
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S.

SUNDAY... NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SWEEPS SOUTH AND EAST FROM
CENTRAL CANADA TO QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS DRIVES A COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR AREA EARLY SUNDAY. MOISTURE FIELDS ARE MORE ROBUST IN
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS IS THE DYNAMICS. EXPECT SOME SKY COVER LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND PART OF SUNDAY BUT AT BEST SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
MORNING SNOW SHOWERS. MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS MAX SFC TEMPS INTO
THE 40S. BUT AFTERNOON MIXING SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
30S. WILL NUDGE MODEL FORECAST DOWN 1-2 DEGREES.

MONDAY-TUESDAY... SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE STARTS TODAY OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CROSSES TO THE SOUTHEAST USA...FORMING A
CLOSED UPPER LOW ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY.  THE LOW THEN
PASSES WELL OFFSHORE OF NANTUCKET ON MONDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE
UPPER LOW DIVERGE BY SUNDAY WITH THE ECMWF FARTHEST WEST AND CLOSEST
TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. IN MOST CASES THE CLOUDS AND PCPN STAY WELL
OFFSHORE. BUT THE ECMWF IS CLOSE ENOUGH AND BRINGS ENOUGH OF AN EAST
FLOW TO BRING MEASURABLE PCPN TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS IT IS
THE OUTLIER SOLUTION WE WOULD TEND TO DISCOUNT IT. BUT WITH
DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST/APPALACHIANS AND BENDING OF THE
FLOW MORE UP THE COAST...A MORE WESTERN TRACK IS IN THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. WE WILL BRING SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AND VERY-LOW-END CHANCE
POPS TO CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE STARTS SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS THIS MORNING AND
MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT TO THE WESTERN LAKES
SUNDAY. IT THEN DIGS AND CARVES A DEEP TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE
EASTERN USA WITH A SOUTH-TO-NORTH FLOW OVER THE EASTERN USA BY
MONDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN LOOKS TO BE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES BEHIND SUNDAY/S FRONT AND
WITH THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH SUGGEST MAINLY SNOW. UNCERTAINTIES IN
THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE SYSTEM LEAVE THE CHANCE OF
A CHANGE TO RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY... YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE TROUGH AND
KICKS IT NORTHEAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MARITIMES. THIS
SHOULD BRING DRYING AND IMPROVING SKIES BUT WITH LINGERING WIDELY
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AS THE COLD POOL SWINGS OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MVFR THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS. ONE PATCH OF
SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH RI AND EASTERN MASS THROUGH 15Z. COULD BE
OTHER PATCHES OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING. COLD FRONT ENTERING THE CT
VALLEY AT 12Z WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDDAY. IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR EXPECTED WITH THE WIND SHIFT BEHIND THE FRONT. SKY COVER
WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...VFR FOR WESTERN MASS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
IFR/LIFR DEVELOPING SE NEW ENG AND CAPE/ISLANDS WITH RAIN CHANGING
TO ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...IMPROVING
FRI AFTERNOON. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE TRANSITION FROM IFR TO VFR
OCCURS. ANTICIPATE ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR RUNWAYS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF PRECIP TONIGHT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN DEVELOPING
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HAVE DROPPED GALE WARNING FOR ALL THE WATERS AND CONVERTED THEM TO
SCA. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS TODAY AND STALL OUT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY BRINGING PRECIP AND PERHAPS SNOW OVER THE WATERS.
VSBYS MAY BE REDUCED AS WELL. GUSTS WILL INCREASE CLOSE TO 25-30
KTS SO EXPECT SCA TO EXPAND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...

FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.  NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FEET WILL ALSO DIMINISH. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST THE OUTER WATERS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY BECOME NORTHWEST SUNDAY
AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE WATERS. A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY EAST OF CAPE ANN. SEAS 5 TO 6 FEET MAINLY ON
THE OUTER WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...NORTH WINDS TURNING NORTHEAST AND INCREASING
WITH GUSTS TO AT LEAST 30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FEET
INITIALLY...BUT THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR FEB 4TH...

BOS...64/1991
BDL...64/1991
PVD...66/1991
ORH...61/1991

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR MAZ017>023.
RI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR RIZ002-004>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ231>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 041459
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
959 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING
SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON...THEN LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MID
ATLC COAST THU NIGHT AND TRACK ALONG THE FRONT PASSING SOUTH AND
EAST OF NANTUCKET FRIDAY. THIS STORM WILL LIKELY BRING ACCUMULATING
SNOW TO SOUTHEAST NEW ENG LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A WEAK
COLD FRONT SUNDAY MAY BRING A FEW CLOUD. A COMPLEX COASTAL STORM
SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...
WEAK BAND OF ECHOES BETWEEN 15-20DBZ JUST W OF PVD AND NOW THROUGH
BOS MARKS THE COLD FRONT WHICH CONTINUES TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION THIS MORNING. THE PRECIP SHIELD ENDS WITHIN MINUTES OF THIS
FROPA. CURRENT TIMING PUSHES IT OFFSHORE BY ABOUT NOON FOR THE
CAPE/ISLANDS. TIMING OF POPS WERE UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS
THINKING. ALSO AJDUSTED TEMPS/DWPTS AS THEY BEGIN TO DROP BEHIND
THE EASTWARD MOVING FRONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEAK 850 MB TROUGH WILL MOVE THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 12-
18Z. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW SCT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. STRONG CAA
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP SEVERAL DEGREES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THEREFOR ANTICIPATE MAX TEMPS TO OCCUR THIS
MORNING.

THIS COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFFSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
NORTHERN ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
PRECIP DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...

*** WINTER STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR FAR SE MASS...SOUTH AND EASTERN
 RHODE ISLAND...CAPE COD AND MARTHAS VINEYARD ***

OVERVIEW...

COLD FRONT STALLED OFF THE COAST WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. VERY SHARP MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...AND WITH POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
TROUGH A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS
LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE STALL COLD FRONT PUSHING THE PRECIP SHIELD
BACK TOWARDS THE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW.

UNCERTAINTY...

STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH THE
PRECIP SHIELD FARTHER WEST WITH EACH RUN. HOWEVER SOME HI-RES
GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A EXTREME CUT-OFF IN QPF KEEPING THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE REGION PRECIP FREE. ASIDE FROM QPF...THERE IS SOME QUESTION
ON WHEN RAIN WILL SWITCH OVER TO SNOW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER GUIDANCE DOES HINT THAT IT WILL BE BETWEEN
06-09Z. THIS IS IN LINE WHEN 925 MB TEMPS QUICKLY COOL BELOW 0C AS
WINDS BECOME MORE IN A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. FINALLY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
ARE IN QUESTION AS THE LATEST EC AND 18Z NAM ARE ON THE HIGH SIDE
SHOWING LOCATIONS ACROSS RI AND SE MASS REACHING BETWEEN 7-10
INCHES. AT THIS TIME...HAVE A HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATION FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN AND LOCATIONS NEAR THE CANAL.
LESS CONFIDENCE ON THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE SNOW SHIELD AS
WELL AS LONG THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

QPF...

THERE APPEARS TO BE 2 DIFFERENT CAMPS IN TERMS OF QPF. THE
UKMET/EC/NAM IS ONE BRINGING SIGNIFICANT QPF AND THUS SNOW INTO
SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN AND ACROSS SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND. WHILE THE
NMM AND ARW ARE ON THE OPPOSITE...KEEPING THE HEAVIEST QPF OVER THE
CAPE AND IMMEDIATE PORTION OF SE MASS WITH AN EXTREME CUTOFF NORTH
OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD ALONG WITH THE EPS. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE WITH AN
EMPHASIS ON WPC QPF TO GET A TREND...WHICH SHOWS THAT THE 00Z
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD.

SNOWFALL...

DECIDED TO EXPAND THE THE WATCH DUE TO THE WESTWARD SHIFT WITH THE
GUIDANCE. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF 6 INCHES IS NEAR THE CAPE COD CANAL
AS WELL AS INTERIOR BRISTOL...PLYMOUTH AND WASHINGTON COUNTY RHODE
ISLAND. SNOW COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING WHICH MAY AFFECT THE MORNING COMMUTE. THANKS TO STRONG OMEGA
LIFT WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION AS WELL AS F-GEN AS NOTED AT THE
600MB LEVEL. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS YIELDING
CLOSE TO 1 INCH PER HOUR...REDUCING VSBYS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.
LOCATIONS ACROSS NANTUCKET AND THE OUTER CAPE WILL SEE LESS SNOWFALL
DUE TO LATER TIMING OF CHANGEOVER AND MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH
WILL LEAD TO SOME MELTING.

AGAIN WITH THE SHARP QPF GRADIENT ON THE NW FRINGE OF THE PRECIP
SHIELD THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BUST. AS THE PREV FORECASTER
MENTIONED...IF THE SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD THEN ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LESS. WHILE IF THE SYSTEM TRACKS FARTHER WEST...THEN HEAVY SNOW
COULD EXTEND BACK WESTWARD...WHICH IS WHAT THE LATEST TRENDS HAVE
SHOWN. RECOMMEND USERS TO LOOK AT THE PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL MAPS
AND BEST/WORST CASE SCENARIOS WHICH COMMUNICATE THE EXPECTED
SNOWFALL RANGES.

IMPACTS...

THIS WILL BE A WET SNOW AND IF HEAVY SNOW MATERIALIZES THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR POWER OUTAGES DUE TO ACCUMULATION ON TREES AND POWER
LINES.

SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN TO WANE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE MARITIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

LONGWAVE SCALE PATTERN SHOWS DIGGING TROUGH EAST AND BUILDING RIDGE
WEST. THIS POINTS TO COLDER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE
WEEKEND AND FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE EASTERN TROUGH WITH CONTINUED VARIATIONS BETWEEN
MODELS ESPECIALLY ON POSITIONS AND EFFECTS.

TWO KEY SHORTWAVES ARE EITHER OVER THE PACIFIC OR JUST MOVING ASHORE
OVER THE WESTERN USA AND ITS DENSER OBSERVATION NETWORK. THEREFORE
CHANGEABLE RUN-RUN DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE TO BE EXPECTED.
CONFIDENCE FOR THE EVOLVING WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAINS LOW.

THE DAILIES...

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT AND INCREASING MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS SATURDAY. OBSERVED TEMPS UPSTREAM UNDER THE RIDGE
SUGGEST MIN TEMPS HERE IN THE 20S. MIXING SHOULD REACH A LITTLE
ABOVE 900 MB...WITH TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER SUPPORTING MAX SFC
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S.

SUNDAY... NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SWEEPS SOUTH AND EAST FROM
CENTRAL CANADA TO QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS DRIVES A COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR AREA EARLY SUNDAY. MOISTURE FIELDS ARE MORE ROBUST IN
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS IS THE DYNAMICS. EXPECT SOME SKY COVER LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND PART OF SUNDAY BUT AT BEST SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
MORNING SNOW SHOWERS. MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS MAX SFC TEMPS INTO
THE 40S. BUT AFTERNOON MIXING SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
30S. WILL NUDGE MODEL FORECAST DOWN 1-2 DEGREES.

MONDAY-TUESDAY... SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE STARTS TODAY OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CROSSES TO THE SOUTHEAST USA...FORMING A
CLOSED UPPER LOW ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY.  THE LOW THEN
PASSES WELL OFFSHORE OF NANTUCKET ON MONDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE
UPPER LOW DIVERGE BY SUNDAY WITH THE ECMWF FARTHEST WEST AND CLOSEST
TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. IN MOST CASES THE CLOUDS AND PCPN STAY WELL
OFFSHORE. BUT THE ECMWF IS CLOSE ENOUGH AND BRINGS ENOUGH OF AN EAST
FLOW TO BRING MEASURABLE PCPN TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS IT IS
THE OUTLIER SOLUTION WE WOULD TEND TO DISCOUNT IT. BUT WITH
DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST/APPALACHIANS AND BENDING OF THE
FLOW MORE UP THE COAST...A MORE WESTERN TRACK IS IN THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. WE WILL BRING SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AND VERY-LOW-END CHANCE
POPS TO CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE STARTS SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS THIS MORNING AND
MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT TO THE WESTERN LAKES
SUNDAY. IT THEN DIGS AND CARVES A DEEP TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE
EASTERN USA WITH A SOUTH-TO-NORTH FLOW OVER THE EASTERN USA BY
MONDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN LOOKS TO BE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES BEHIND SUNDAY/S FRONT AND
WITH THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH SUGGEST MAINLY SNOW. UNCERTAINTIES IN
THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE SYSTEM LEAVE THE CHANCE OF
A CHANGE TO RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY... YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE TROUGH AND
KICKS IT NORTHEAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MARITIMES. THIS
SHOULD BRING DRYING AND IMPROVING SKIES BUT WITH LINGERING WIDELY
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AS THE COLD POOL SWINGS OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MVFR THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS. ONE PATCH OF
SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH RI AND EASTERN MASS THROUGH 15Z. COULD BE
OTHER PATCHES OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING. COLD FRONT ENTERING THE CT
VALLEY AT 12Z WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDDAY. IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR EXPECTED WITH THE WIND SHIFT BEHIND THE FRONT. SKY COVER
WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...VFR FOR WESTERN MASS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
IFR/LIFR DEVELOPING SE NEW ENG AND CAPE/ISLANDS WITH RAIN CHANGING
TO ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...IMPROVING
FRI AFTERNOON. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE TRANSITION FROM IFR TO VFR
OCCURS. ANTICIPATE ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR RUNWAYS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF PRECIP TONIGHT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN DEVELOPING
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HAVE DROPPED GALE WARNING FOR ALL THE WATERS AND CONVERTED THEM TO
SCA. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS TODAY AND STALL OUT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY BRINGING PRECIP AND PERHAPS SNOW OVER THE WATERS.
VSBYS MAY BE REDUCED AS WELL. GUSTS WILL INCREASE CLOSE TO 25-30
KTS SO EXPECT SCA TO EXPAND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...

FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.  NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FEET WILL ALSO DIMINISH. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST THE OUTER WATERS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY BECOME NORTHWEST SUNDAY
AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE WATERS. A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY EAST OF CAPE ANN. SEAS 5 TO 6 FEET MAINLY ON
THE OUTER WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...NORTH WINDS TURNING NORTHEAST AND INCREASING
WITH GUSTS TO AT LEAST 30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FEET
INITIALLY...BUT THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR FEB 4TH...

BOS...64/1991
BDL...64/1991
PVD...66/1991
ORH...61/1991

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR MAZ017>023.
RI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR RIZ002-004>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ231>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 041134
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
634 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING
SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON...THEN LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MID
ATLC COAST THU NIGHT AND TRACK ALONG THE FRONT PASSING SOUTH AND
EAST OF NANTUCKET FRIDAY. THIS STORM WILL LIKELY BRING ACCUMULATING
SNOW TO SOUTHEAST NEW ENG LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A WEAK
COLD FRONT SUNDAY MAY BRING A FEW CLOUD. A COMPLEX COASTAL STORM
SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

630 AM UPDATE...
STILL SOME SHOWERS IN EASTERN CT/RI MOVING INTO EASTERN MASS.
MEANWHILE COLD FRONT HAS REACHED THE CT VALLEY AND WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING.
SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND POPS. REMAINDER OF FORECAST IS
ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEAK 850 MB TROUGH WILL MOVE THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 12-
18Z. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW SCT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. STRONG CAA
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP SEVERAL DEGREES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THEREFOR ANTICIPATE MAX TEMPS TO OCCUR THIS
MORNING.

THIS COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFFSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
NORTHERN ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
PRECIP DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...

*** WINTER STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR FAR SE MASS...SOUTH AND EASTERN
 RHODE ISLAND...CAPE COD AND MARTHAS VINEYARD ***

OVERVIEW...

COLD FRONT STALLED OFF THE COAST WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. VERY SHARP MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...AND WITH POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
TROUGH A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS
LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE STALL COLD FRONT PUSHING THE PRECIP SHIELD
BACK TOWARDS THE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW.

UNCERTAINTY...

STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH THE
PRECIP SHIELD FARTHER WEST WITH EACH RUN. HOWEVER SOME HI-RES
GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A EXTREME CUT-OFF IN QPF KEEPING THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE REGION PRECIP FREE. ASIDE FROM QPF...THERE IS SOME QUESTION
ON WHEN RAIN WILL SWITCH OVER TO SNOW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER GUIDANCE DOES HINT THAT IT WILL BE BETWEEN
06-09Z. THIS IS IN LINE WHEN 925 MB TEMPS QUICKLY COOL BELOW 0C AS
WINDS BECOME MORE IN A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. FINALLY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
ARE IN QUESTION AS THE LATEST EC AND 18Z NAM ARE ON THE HIGH SIDE
SHOWING LOCATIONS ACROSS RI AND SE MASS REACHING BETWEEN 7-10
INCHES. AT THIS TIME...HAVE A HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATION FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN AND LOCATIONS NEAR THE CANAL.
LESS CONFIDENCE ON THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE SNOW SHIELD AS
WELL AS LONG THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

QPF...

THERE APPEARS TO BE 2 DIFFERENT CAMPS IN TERMS OF QPF. THE
UKMET/EC/NAM IS ONE BRINGING SIGNIFICANT QPF AND THUS SNOW INTO
SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN AND ACROSS SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND. WHILE THE
NMM AND ARW ARE ON THE OPPOSITE...KEEPING THE HEAVIEST QPF OVER THE
CAPE AND IMMEDIATE PORTION OF SE MASS WITH AN EXTREME CUTOFF NORTH
OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD ALONG WITH THE EPS. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE WITH AN
EMPHASIS ON WPC QPF TO GET A TREND...WHICH SHOWS THAT THE 00Z
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD.

SNOWFALL...

DECIDED TO EXPAND THE THE WATCH DUE TO THE WESTWARD SHIFT WITH THE
GUIDANCE. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF 6 INCHES IS NEAR THE CAPE COD CANAL
AS WELL AS INTERIOR BRISTOL...PLYMOUTH AND WASHINGTON COUNTY RHODE
ISLAND. SNOW COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING WHICH MAY AFFECT THE MORNING COMMUTE. THANKS TO STRONG OMEGA
LIFT WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION AS WELL AS F-GEN AS NOTED AT THE
600MB LEVEL. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS YIELDING
CLOSE TO 1 INCH PER HOUR...REDUCING VSBYS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.
LOCATIONS ACROSS NANTUCKET AND THE OUTER CAPE WILL SEE LESS SNOWFALL
DUE TO LATER TIMING OF CHANGEOVER AND MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH
WILL LEAD TO SOME MELTING.

AGAIN WITH THE SHARP QPF GRADIENT ON THE NW FRINGE OF THE PRECIP
SHIELD THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BUST. AS THE PREV FORECASTER
MENTIONED...IF THE SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD THEN ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LESS. WHILE IF THE SYSTEM TRACKS FARTHER WEST...THEN HEAVY SNOW
COULD EXTEND BACK WESTWARD...WHICH IS WHAT THE LATEST TRENDS HAVE
SHOWN. RECOMMEND USERS TO LOOK AT THE PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL MAPS
AND BEST/WORST CASE SCENARIOS WHICH COMMUNICATE THE EXPECTED
SNOWFALL RANGES.

IMPACTS...

THIS WILL BE A WET SNOW AND IF HEAVY SNOW MATERIALIZES THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR POWER OUTAGES DUE TO ACCUMULATION ON TREES AND POWER
LINES.

SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN TO WANE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE MARITIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

LONGWAVE SCALE PATTERN SHOWS DIGGING TROUGH EAST AND BUILDING RIDGE
WEST. THIS POINTS TO COLDER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE
WEEKEND AND FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE EASTERN TROUGH WITH CONTINUED VARIATIONS BETWEEN
MODELS ESPECIALLY ON POSITIONS AND EFFECTS.

TWO KEY SHORTWAVES ARE EITHER OVER THE PACIFIC OR JUST MOVING ASHORE
OVER THE WESTERN USA AND ITS DENSER OBSERVATION NETWORK. THEREFORE
CHANGEABLE RUN-RUN DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE TO BE EXPECTED.
CONFIDENCE FOR THE EVOLVING WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAINS LOW.

THE DAILIES...

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT AND INCREASING MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS SATURDAY. OBSERVED TEMPS UPSTREAM UNDER THE RIDGE
SUGGEST MIN TEMPS HERE IN THE 20S. MIXING SHOULD REACH A LITTLE
ABOVE 900 MB...WITH TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER SUPPORTING MAX SFC
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S.

SUNDAY... NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SWEEPS SOUTH AND EAST FROM
CENTRAL CANADA TO QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS DRIVES A COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR AREA EARLY SUNDAY. MOISTURE FIELDS ARE MORE ROBUST IN
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS IS THE DYNAMICS. EXPECT SOME SKY COVER LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND PART OF SUNDAY BUT AT BEST SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
MORNING SNOW SHOWERS. MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS MAX SFC TEMPS INTO
THE 40S. BUT AFTERNOON MIXING SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
30S. WILL NUDGE MODEL FORECAST DOWN 1-2 DEGREES.

MONDAY-TUESDAY... SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE STARTS TODAY OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CROSSES TO THE SOUTHEAST USA...FORMING A
CLOSED UPPER LOW ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY.  THE LOW THEN
PASSES WELL OFFSHORE OF NANTUCKET ON MONDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE
UPPER LOW DIVERGE BY SUNDAY WITH THE ECMWF FARTHEST WEST AND CLOSEST
TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. IN MOST CASES THE CLOUDS AND PCPN STAY WELL
OFFSHORE. BUT THE ECMWF IS CLOSE ENOUGH AND BRINGS ENOUGH OF AN EAST
FLOW TO BRING MEASURABLE PCPN TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS IT IS
THE OUTLIER SOLUTION WE WOULD TEND TO DISCOUNT IT. BUT WITH
DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST/APPALACHIANS AND BENDING OF THE
FLOW MORE UP THE COAST...A MORE WESTERN TRACK IS IN THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. WE WILL BRING SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AND VERY-LOW-END CHANCE
POPS TO CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE STARTS SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS THIS MORNING AND
MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT TO THE WESTERN LAKES
SUNDAY. IT THEN DIGS AND CARVES A DEEP TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE
EASTERN USA WITH A SOUTH-TO-NORTH FLOW OVER THE EASTERN USA BY
MONDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN LOOKS TO BE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES BEHIND SUNDAY/S FRONT AND
WITH THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH SUGGEST MAINLY SNOW. UNCERTAINTIES IN
THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE SYSTEM LEAVE THE CHANCE OF
A CHANGE TO RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY... YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE TROUGH AND
KICKS IT NORTHEAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MARITIMES. THIS
SHOULD BRING DRYING AND IMPROVING SKIES BUT WITH LINGERING WIDELY
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AS THE COLD POOL SWINGS OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MVFR THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS. ONE PATCH OF
SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH RI AND EASTERN MASS THROUGH 15Z. COULD BE
OTHER PATCHES OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING. COLD FRONT ENTERING THE CT
VALLEY AT 12Z WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDDAY. IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR EXPECTED WITH THE WIND SHIFT BEHIND THE FRONT. SKY COVER
WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...VFR FOR WESTERN MASS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
IFR/LIFR DEVELOPING SE NEW ENG AND CAPE/ISLANDS WITH RAIN CHANGING
TO ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...IMPROVING
FRI AFTERNOON. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE TRANSITION FROM IFR TO VFR
OCCURS. ANTICIPATE ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR RUNWAYS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF PRECIP TONIGHT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN DEVELOPING
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HAVE DROPPED GALE WARNING FOR ALL THE WATERS AND CONVERTED THEM TO
SCA. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS TODAY AND STALL OUT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY BRINGING PRECIP AND PERHAPS SNOW OVER THE WATERS.
VSBYS MAY BE REDUCED AS WELL. GUSTS WILL INCREASE CLOSE TO 25-30
KTS SO EXPECT SCA TO EXPAND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...

FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.  NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FEET WILL ALSO DIMINISH. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST THE OUTER WATERS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY BECOME NORTHWEST SUNDAY
AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE WATERS. A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY EAST OF CAPE ANN. SEAS 5 TO 6 FEET MAINLY ON
THE OUTER WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...NORTH WINDS TURNING NORTHEAST AND INCREASING
WITH GUSTS TO AT LEAST 30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FEET
INITIALLY...BUT THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR FEB 4TH...

BOS...64/1991
BDL...64/1991
PVD...66/1991
ORH...61/1991

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR MAZ017>023.
RI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR RIZ002-004>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ231>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 041134
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
634 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING
SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON...THEN LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MID
ATLC COAST THU NIGHT AND TRACK ALONG THE FRONT PASSING SOUTH AND
EAST OF NANTUCKET FRIDAY. THIS STORM WILL LIKELY BRING ACCUMULATING
SNOW TO SOUTHEAST NEW ENG LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A WEAK
COLD FRONT SUNDAY MAY BRING A FEW CLOUD. A COMPLEX COASTAL STORM
SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

630 AM UPDATE...
STILL SOME SHOWERS IN EASTERN CT/RI MOVING INTO EASTERN MASS.
MEANWHILE COLD FRONT HAS REACHED THE CT VALLEY AND WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING.
SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND POPS. REMAINDER OF FORECAST IS
ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEAK 850 MB TROUGH WILL MOVE THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 12-
18Z. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW SCT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. STRONG CAA
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP SEVERAL DEGREES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THEREFOR ANTICIPATE MAX TEMPS TO OCCUR THIS
MORNING.

THIS COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFFSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
NORTHERN ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
PRECIP DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...

*** WINTER STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR FAR SE MASS...SOUTH AND EASTERN
 RHODE ISLAND...CAPE COD AND MARTHAS VINEYARD ***

OVERVIEW...

COLD FRONT STALLED OFF THE COAST WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. VERY SHARP MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...AND WITH POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
TROUGH A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS
LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE STALL COLD FRONT PUSHING THE PRECIP SHIELD
BACK TOWARDS THE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW.

UNCERTAINTY...

STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH THE
PRECIP SHIELD FARTHER WEST WITH EACH RUN. HOWEVER SOME HI-RES
GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A EXTREME CUT-OFF IN QPF KEEPING THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE REGION PRECIP FREE. ASIDE FROM QPF...THERE IS SOME QUESTION
ON WHEN RAIN WILL SWITCH OVER TO SNOW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER GUIDANCE DOES HINT THAT IT WILL BE BETWEEN
06-09Z. THIS IS IN LINE WHEN 925 MB TEMPS QUICKLY COOL BELOW 0C AS
WINDS BECOME MORE IN A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. FINALLY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
ARE IN QUESTION AS THE LATEST EC AND 18Z NAM ARE ON THE HIGH SIDE
SHOWING LOCATIONS ACROSS RI AND SE MASS REACHING BETWEEN 7-10
INCHES. AT THIS TIME...HAVE A HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATION FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN AND LOCATIONS NEAR THE CANAL.
LESS CONFIDENCE ON THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE SNOW SHIELD AS
WELL AS LONG THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

QPF...

THERE APPEARS TO BE 2 DIFFERENT CAMPS IN TERMS OF QPF. THE
UKMET/EC/NAM IS ONE BRINGING SIGNIFICANT QPF AND THUS SNOW INTO
SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN AND ACROSS SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND. WHILE THE
NMM AND ARW ARE ON THE OPPOSITE...KEEPING THE HEAVIEST QPF OVER THE
CAPE AND IMMEDIATE PORTION OF SE MASS WITH AN EXTREME CUTOFF NORTH
OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD ALONG WITH THE EPS. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE WITH AN
EMPHASIS ON WPC QPF TO GET A TREND...WHICH SHOWS THAT THE 00Z
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD.

SNOWFALL...

DECIDED TO EXPAND THE THE WATCH DUE TO THE WESTWARD SHIFT WITH THE
GUIDANCE. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF 6 INCHES IS NEAR THE CAPE COD CANAL
AS WELL AS INTERIOR BRISTOL...PLYMOUTH AND WASHINGTON COUNTY RHODE
ISLAND. SNOW COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING WHICH MAY AFFECT THE MORNING COMMUTE. THANKS TO STRONG OMEGA
LIFT WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION AS WELL AS F-GEN AS NOTED AT THE
600MB LEVEL. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS YIELDING
CLOSE TO 1 INCH PER HOUR...REDUCING VSBYS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.
LOCATIONS ACROSS NANTUCKET AND THE OUTER CAPE WILL SEE LESS SNOWFALL
DUE TO LATER TIMING OF CHANGEOVER AND MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH
WILL LEAD TO SOME MELTING.

AGAIN WITH THE SHARP QPF GRADIENT ON THE NW FRINGE OF THE PRECIP
SHIELD THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BUST. AS THE PREV FORECASTER
MENTIONED...IF THE SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD THEN ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LESS. WHILE IF THE SYSTEM TRACKS FARTHER WEST...THEN HEAVY SNOW
COULD EXTEND BACK WESTWARD...WHICH IS WHAT THE LATEST TRENDS HAVE
SHOWN. RECOMMEND USERS TO LOOK AT THE PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL MAPS
AND BEST/WORST CASE SCENARIOS WHICH COMMUNICATE THE EXPECTED
SNOWFALL RANGES.

IMPACTS...

THIS WILL BE A WET SNOW AND IF HEAVY SNOW MATERIALIZES THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR POWER OUTAGES DUE TO ACCUMULATION ON TREES AND POWER
LINES.

SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN TO WANE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE MARITIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

LONGWAVE SCALE PATTERN SHOWS DIGGING TROUGH EAST AND BUILDING RIDGE
WEST. THIS POINTS TO COLDER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE
WEEKEND AND FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE EASTERN TROUGH WITH CONTINUED VARIATIONS BETWEEN
MODELS ESPECIALLY ON POSITIONS AND EFFECTS.

TWO KEY SHORTWAVES ARE EITHER OVER THE PACIFIC OR JUST MOVING ASHORE
OVER THE WESTERN USA AND ITS DENSER OBSERVATION NETWORK. THEREFORE
CHANGEABLE RUN-RUN DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE TO BE EXPECTED.
CONFIDENCE FOR THE EVOLVING WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAINS LOW.

THE DAILIES...

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT AND INCREASING MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS SATURDAY. OBSERVED TEMPS UPSTREAM UNDER THE RIDGE
SUGGEST MIN TEMPS HERE IN THE 20S. MIXING SHOULD REACH A LITTLE
ABOVE 900 MB...WITH TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER SUPPORTING MAX SFC
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S.

SUNDAY... NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SWEEPS SOUTH AND EAST FROM
CENTRAL CANADA TO QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS DRIVES A COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR AREA EARLY SUNDAY. MOISTURE FIELDS ARE MORE ROBUST IN
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS IS THE DYNAMICS. EXPECT SOME SKY COVER LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND PART OF SUNDAY BUT AT BEST SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
MORNING SNOW SHOWERS. MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS MAX SFC TEMPS INTO
THE 40S. BUT AFTERNOON MIXING SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
30S. WILL NUDGE MODEL FORECAST DOWN 1-2 DEGREES.

MONDAY-TUESDAY... SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE STARTS TODAY OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CROSSES TO THE SOUTHEAST USA...FORMING A
CLOSED UPPER LOW ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY.  THE LOW THEN
PASSES WELL OFFSHORE OF NANTUCKET ON MONDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE
UPPER LOW DIVERGE BY SUNDAY WITH THE ECMWF FARTHEST WEST AND CLOSEST
TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. IN MOST CASES THE CLOUDS AND PCPN STAY WELL
OFFSHORE. BUT THE ECMWF IS CLOSE ENOUGH AND BRINGS ENOUGH OF AN EAST
FLOW TO BRING MEASURABLE PCPN TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS IT IS
THE OUTLIER SOLUTION WE WOULD TEND TO DISCOUNT IT. BUT WITH
DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST/APPALACHIANS AND BENDING OF THE
FLOW MORE UP THE COAST...A MORE WESTERN TRACK IS IN THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. WE WILL BRING SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AND VERY-LOW-END CHANCE
POPS TO CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE STARTS SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS THIS MORNING AND
MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT TO THE WESTERN LAKES
SUNDAY. IT THEN DIGS AND CARVES A DEEP TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE
EASTERN USA WITH A SOUTH-TO-NORTH FLOW OVER THE EASTERN USA BY
MONDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN LOOKS TO BE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES BEHIND SUNDAY/S FRONT AND
WITH THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH SUGGEST MAINLY SNOW. UNCERTAINTIES IN
THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE SYSTEM LEAVE THE CHANCE OF
A CHANGE TO RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY... YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE TROUGH AND
KICKS IT NORTHEAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MARITIMES. THIS
SHOULD BRING DRYING AND IMPROVING SKIES BUT WITH LINGERING WIDELY
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AS THE COLD POOL SWINGS OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MVFR THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS. ONE PATCH OF
SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH RI AND EASTERN MASS THROUGH 15Z. COULD BE
OTHER PATCHES OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING. COLD FRONT ENTERING THE CT
VALLEY AT 12Z WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDDAY. IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR EXPECTED WITH THE WIND SHIFT BEHIND THE FRONT. SKY COVER
WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...VFR FOR WESTERN MASS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
IFR/LIFR DEVELOPING SE NEW ENG AND CAPE/ISLANDS WITH RAIN CHANGING
TO ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...IMPROVING
FRI AFTERNOON. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE TRANSITION FROM IFR TO VFR
OCCURS. ANTICIPATE ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR RUNWAYS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF PRECIP TONIGHT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN DEVELOPING
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HAVE DROPPED GALE WARNING FOR ALL THE WATERS AND CONVERTED THEM TO
SCA. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS TODAY AND STALL OUT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY BRINGING PRECIP AND PERHAPS SNOW OVER THE WATERS.
VSBYS MAY BE REDUCED AS WELL. GUSTS WILL INCREASE CLOSE TO 25-30
KTS SO EXPECT SCA TO EXPAND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...

FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.  NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FEET WILL ALSO DIMINISH. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST THE OUTER WATERS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY BECOME NORTHWEST SUNDAY
AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE WATERS. A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY EAST OF CAPE ANN. SEAS 5 TO 6 FEET MAINLY ON
THE OUTER WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...NORTH WINDS TURNING NORTHEAST AND INCREASING
WITH GUSTS TO AT LEAST 30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FEET
INITIALLY...BUT THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR FEB 4TH...

BOS...64/1991
BDL...64/1991
PVD...66/1991
ORH...61/1991

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR MAZ017>023.
RI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR RIZ002-004>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ231>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 041134
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
634 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING
SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON...THEN LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MID
ATLC COAST THU NIGHT AND TRACK ALONG THE FRONT PASSING SOUTH AND
EAST OF NANTUCKET FRIDAY. THIS STORM WILL LIKELY BRING ACCUMULATING
SNOW TO SOUTHEAST NEW ENG LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A WEAK
COLD FRONT SUNDAY MAY BRING A FEW CLOUD. A COMPLEX COASTAL STORM
SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

630 AM UPDATE...
STILL SOME SHOWERS IN EASTERN CT/RI MOVING INTO EASTERN MASS.
MEANWHILE COLD FRONT HAS REACHED THE CT VALLEY AND WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING.
SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND POPS. REMAINDER OF FORECAST IS
ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEAK 850 MB TROUGH WILL MOVE THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 12-
18Z. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW SCT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. STRONG CAA
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP SEVERAL DEGREES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THEREFOR ANTICIPATE MAX TEMPS TO OCCUR THIS
MORNING.

THIS COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFFSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
NORTHERN ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
PRECIP DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...

*** WINTER STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR FAR SE MASS...SOUTH AND EASTERN
 RHODE ISLAND...CAPE COD AND MARTHAS VINEYARD ***

OVERVIEW...

COLD FRONT STALLED OFF THE COAST WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. VERY SHARP MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...AND WITH POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
TROUGH A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS
LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE STALL COLD FRONT PUSHING THE PRECIP SHIELD
BACK TOWARDS THE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW.

UNCERTAINTY...

STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH THE
PRECIP SHIELD FARTHER WEST WITH EACH RUN. HOWEVER SOME HI-RES
GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A EXTREME CUT-OFF IN QPF KEEPING THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE REGION PRECIP FREE. ASIDE FROM QPF...THERE IS SOME QUESTION
ON WHEN RAIN WILL SWITCH OVER TO SNOW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER GUIDANCE DOES HINT THAT IT WILL BE BETWEEN
06-09Z. THIS IS IN LINE WHEN 925 MB TEMPS QUICKLY COOL BELOW 0C AS
WINDS BECOME MORE IN A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. FINALLY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
ARE IN QUESTION AS THE LATEST EC AND 18Z NAM ARE ON THE HIGH SIDE
SHOWING LOCATIONS ACROSS RI AND SE MASS REACHING BETWEEN 7-10
INCHES. AT THIS TIME...HAVE A HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATION FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN AND LOCATIONS NEAR THE CANAL.
LESS CONFIDENCE ON THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE SNOW SHIELD AS
WELL AS LONG THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

QPF...

THERE APPEARS TO BE 2 DIFFERENT CAMPS IN TERMS OF QPF. THE
UKMET/EC/NAM IS ONE BRINGING SIGNIFICANT QPF AND THUS SNOW INTO
SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN AND ACROSS SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND. WHILE THE
NMM AND ARW ARE ON THE OPPOSITE...KEEPING THE HEAVIEST QPF OVER THE
CAPE AND IMMEDIATE PORTION OF SE MASS WITH AN EXTREME CUTOFF NORTH
OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD ALONG WITH THE EPS. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE WITH AN
EMPHASIS ON WPC QPF TO GET A TREND...WHICH SHOWS THAT THE 00Z
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD.

SNOWFALL...

DECIDED TO EXPAND THE THE WATCH DUE TO THE WESTWARD SHIFT WITH THE
GUIDANCE. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF 6 INCHES IS NEAR THE CAPE COD CANAL
AS WELL AS INTERIOR BRISTOL...PLYMOUTH AND WASHINGTON COUNTY RHODE
ISLAND. SNOW COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING WHICH MAY AFFECT THE MORNING COMMUTE. THANKS TO STRONG OMEGA
LIFT WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION AS WELL AS F-GEN AS NOTED AT THE
600MB LEVEL. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS YIELDING
CLOSE TO 1 INCH PER HOUR...REDUCING VSBYS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.
LOCATIONS ACROSS NANTUCKET AND THE OUTER CAPE WILL SEE LESS SNOWFALL
DUE TO LATER TIMING OF CHANGEOVER AND MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH
WILL LEAD TO SOME MELTING.

AGAIN WITH THE SHARP QPF GRADIENT ON THE NW FRINGE OF THE PRECIP
SHIELD THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BUST. AS THE PREV FORECASTER
MENTIONED...IF THE SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD THEN ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LESS. WHILE IF THE SYSTEM TRACKS FARTHER WEST...THEN HEAVY SNOW
COULD EXTEND BACK WESTWARD...WHICH IS WHAT THE LATEST TRENDS HAVE
SHOWN. RECOMMEND USERS TO LOOK AT THE PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL MAPS
AND BEST/WORST CASE SCENARIOS WHICH COMMUNICATE THE EXPECTED
SNOWFALL RANGES.

IMPACTS...

THIS WILL BE A WET SNOW AND IF HEAVY SNOW MATERIALIZES THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR POWER OUTAGES DUE TO ACCUMULATION ON TREES AND POWER
LINES.

SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN TO WANE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE MARITIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

LONGWAVE SCALE PATTERN SHOWS DIGGING TROUGH EAST AND BUILDING RIDGE
WEST. THIS POINTS TO COLDER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE
WEEKEND AND FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE EASTERN TROUGH WITH CONTINUED VARIATIONS BETWEEN
MODELS ESPECIALLY ON POSITIONS AND EFFECTS.

TWO KEY SHORTWAVES ARE EITHER OVER THE PACIFIC OR JUST MOVING ASHORE
OVER THE WESTERN USA AND ITS DENSER OBSERVATION NETWORK. THEREFORE
CHANGEABLE RUN-RUN DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE TO BE EXPECTED.
CONFIDENCE FOR THE EVOLVING WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAINS LOW.

THE DAILIES...

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT AND INCREASING MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS SATURDAY. OBSERVED TEMPS UPSTREAM UNDER THE RIDGE
SUGGEST MIN TEMPS HERE IN THE 20S. MIXING SHOULD REACH A LITTLE
ABOVE 900 MB...WITH TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER SUPPORTING MAX SFC
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S.

SUNDAY... NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SWEEPS SOUTH AND EAST FROM
CENTRAL CANADA TO QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS DRIVES A COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR AREA EARLY SUNDAY. MOISTURE FIELDS ARE MORE ROBUST IN
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS IS THE DYNAMICS. EXPECT SOME SKY COVER LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND PART OF SUNDAY BUT AT BEST SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
MORNING SNOW SHOWERS. MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS MAX SFC TEMPS INTO
THE 40S. BUT AFTERNOON MIXING SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
30S. WILL NUDGE MODEL FORECAST DOWN 1-2 DEGREES.

MONDAY-TUESDAY... SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE STARTS TODAY OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CROSSES TO THE SOUTHEAST USA...FORMING A
CLOSED UPPER LOW ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY.  THE LOW THEN
PASSES WELL OFFSHORE OF NANTUCKET ON MONDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE
UPPER LOW DIVERGE BY SUNDAY WITH THE ECMWF FARTHEST WEST AND CLOSEST
TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. IN MOST CASES THE CLOUDS AND PCPN STAY WELL
OFFSHORE. BUT THE ECMWF IS CLOSE ENOUGH AND BRINGS ENOUGH OF AN EAST
FLOW TO BRING MEASURABLE PCPN TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS IT IS
THE OUTLIER SOLUTION WE WOULD TEND TO DISCOUNT IT. BUT WITH
DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST/APPALACHIANS AND BENDING OF THE
FLOW MORE UP THE COAST...A MORE WESTERN TRACK IS IN THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. WE WILL BRING SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AND VERY-LOW-END CHANCE
POPS TO CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE STARTS SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS THIS MORNING AND
MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT TO THE WESTERN LAKES
SUNDAY. IT THEN DIGS AND CARVES A DEEP TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE
EASTERN USA WITH A SOUTH-TO-NORTH FLOW OVER THE EASTERN USA BY
MONDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN LOOKS TO BE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES BEHIND SUNDAY/S FRONT AND
WITH THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH SUGGEST MAINLY SNOW. UNCERTAINTIES IN
THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE SYSTEM LEAVE THE CHANCE OF
A CHANGE TO RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY... YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE TROUGH AND
KICKS IT NORTHEAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MARITIMES. THIS
SHOULD BRING DRYING AND IMPROVING SKIES BUT WITH LINGERING WIDELY
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AS THE COLD POOL SWINGS OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MVFR THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS. ONE PATCH OF
SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH RI AND EASTERN MASS THROUGH 15Z. COULD BE
OTHER PATCHES OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING. COLD FRONT ENTERING THE CT
VALLEY AT 12Z WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDDAY. IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR EXPECTED WITH THE WIND SHIFT BEHIND THE FRONT. SKY COVER
WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...VFR FOR WESTERN MASS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
IFR/LIFR DEVELOPING SE NEW ENG AND CAPE/ISLANDS WITH RAIN CHANGING
TO ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...IMPROVING
FRI AFTERNOON. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE TRANSITION FROM IFR TO VFR
OCCURS. ANTICIPATE ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR RUNWAYS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF PRECIP TONIGHT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN DEVELOPING
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HAVE DROPPED GALE WARNING FOR ALL THE WATERS AND CONVERTED THEM TO
SCA. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS TODAY AND STALL OUT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY BRINGING PRECIP AND PERHAPS SNOW OVER THE WATERS.
VSBYS MAY BE REDUCED AS WELL. GUSTS WILL INCREASE CLOSE TO 25-30
KTS SO EXPECT SCA TO EXPAND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...

FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.  NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FEET WILL ALSO DIMINISH. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST THE OUTER WATERS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY BECOME NORTHWEST SUNDAY
AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE WATERS. A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY EAST OF CAPE ANN. SEAS 5 TO 6 FEET MAINLY ON
THE OUTER WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...NORTH WINDS TURNING NORTHEAST AND INCREASING
WITH GUSTS TO AT LEAST 30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FEET
INITIALLY...BUT THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR FEB 4TH...

BOS...64/1991
BDL...64/1991
PVD...66/1991
ORH...61/1991

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR MAZ017>023.
RI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR RIZ002-004>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ231>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 040937
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
437 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING
SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON...THEN LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MID
ATLC COAST THU NIGHT AND TRACK ALONG THE FRONT PASSING SOUTH AND
EAST OF NANTUCKET FRIDAY. THIS STORM WILL LIKELY BRING ACCUMULATING
SNOW TO SOUTHEAST NEW ENG LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A WEAK
COLD FRONT SUNDAY MAY BRING A FEW CLOUD. A COMPLEX COASTAL STORM
SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
WILL CHANGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS FRONT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS UPSTATE NY WHERE
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED.

WEAK 850 MB TROUGH WILL MOVE THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 12-
18Z. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW SCT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. STRONG CAA
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP SEVERAL DEGREES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THEREFOR ANTICIPATE MAX TEMPS TO OCCUR EARLY
THIS MORNING.

THIS COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFFSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
NORTHERN ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
PRECIP DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...

TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...

*** WINTER STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR FAR SE MASS...SOUTH AND EASTERN
 RHODE ISLAND...CAPE COD AND MARTHAS VINEYARD ***

OVERVIEW...

COLD FRONT STALLED OFF THE COAST WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. VERY SHARP MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...AND WITH POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
TROUGH A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS
LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE STALL COLD FRONT PUSHING THE PRECIP SHIELD
BACK TOWARDS THE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW.

UNCERTAINTY...

STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH THE
PRECIP SHIELD FARTHER WEST WITH EACH RUN. HOWEVER SOME HI-RES
GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A EXTREME CUT-OFF IN QPF KEEPING THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE REGION PRECIP FREE. ASIDE FROM QPF...THERE IS SOME QUESTION
ON WHEN RAIN WILL SWITCH OVER TO SNOW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER GUIDANCE DOES HINT THAT IT WILL BE BETWEEN
06-09Z. THIS IS IN LINE WHEN 925 MB TEMPS QUICKLY COOL BELOW 0C AS
WINDS BECOME MORE IN A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. FINALLY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
ARE IN QUESTION AS THE LATEST EC AND 18Z NAM ARE ON THE HIGH SIDE
SHOWING LOCATIONS ACROSS RI AND SE MASS REACHING BETWEEN 7-10
INCHES. AT THIS TIME...HAVE A HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATION FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN AND LOCATIONS NEAR THE CANAL.
LESS CONFIDENCE ON THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE SNOW SHIELD AS
WELL AS LONG THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

QPF...

THERE APPEARS TO BE 2 DIFFERENT CAMPS IN TERMS OF QPF. THE
UKMET/EC/NAM IS ONE BRINGING SIGNIFICANT QPF AND THUS SNOW INTO
SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN AND ACROSS SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND. WHILE THE
NMM AND ARW ARE ON THE OPPOSITE...KEEPING THE HEAVIEST QPF OVER THE
CAPE AND IMMEDIATE PORTION OF SE MASS WITH AN EXTREME CUTOFF NORTH
OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD ALONG WITH THE EPS. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE WITH AN
EMPHASIS ON WPC QPF TO GET A TREND...WHICH SHOWS THAT THE 00Z
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD.

SNOWFALL...

DECIDED TO EXPAND THE THE WATCH DUE TO THE WESTWARD SHIFT WITH THE
GUIDANCE. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF 6 INCHES IS NEAR THE CAPE COD CANAL
AS WELL AS INTERIOR BRISTOL...PLYMOUTH AND WASHINGTON COUNTY RHODE
ISLAND. SNOW COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING WHICH MAY AFFECT THE MORNING COMMUTE. THANKS TO STRONG OMEGA
LIFT WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION AS WELL AS F-GEN AS NOTED AT THE
600MB LEVEL. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS YIELDING
CLOSE TO 1 INCH PER HOUR...REDUCING VSBYS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.
LOCATIONS ACROSS NANTUCKET AND THE OUTER CAPE WILL SEE LESS SNOWFALL
DUE TO LATER TIMING OF CHANGEOVER AND MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH
WILL LEAD TO SOME MELTING.

AGAIN WITH THE SHARP QPF GRADIENT ON THE NW FRINGE OF THE PRECIP
SHIELD THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BUST. AS THE PREV FORECASTER
MENTIONED...IF THE SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD THEN ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LESS. WHILE IF THE SYSTEM TRACKS FARTHER WEST...THEN HEAVY SNOW
COULD EXTEND BACK WESTWARD...WHICH IS WHAT THE LATEST TRENDS HAVE
SHOWN. RECOMMEND USERS TO LOOK AT THE PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL MAPS
AND BEST/WORST CASE SCENARIOS WHICH COMMUNICATE THE EXPECTED
SNOWFALL RANGES.

IMPACTS...

THIS WILL BE A WET SNOW AND IF HEAVY SNOW MATERIALIZES THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR POWER OUTAGES DUE TO ACCUMULATION ON TREES AND POWER
LINES.

SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN TO WANE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE MARITIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

LONGWAVE SCALE PATTERN SHOWS DIGGING TROUGH EAST AND BUILDING RIDGE
WEST. THIS POINTS TO COLDER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE
WEEKEND AND FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE EASTERN TROUGH WITH CONTINUED VARIATIONS BETWEEN
MODELS ESPECIALLY ON POSITIONS AND EFFECTS.

TWO KEY SHORTWAVES ARE EITHER OVER THE PACIFIC OR JUST MOVING ASHORE
OVER THE WESTERN USA AND ITS DENSER OBSERVATION NETWORK. THEREFORE
CHANGEABLE RUN-RUN DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE TO BE EXPECTED.
CONFIDENCE FOR THE EVOLVING WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAINS LOW.

THE DAILIES...

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT AND INCREASING MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS SATURDAY. OBSERVED TEMPS UPSTREAM UNDER THE RIDGE
SUGGEST MIN TEMPS HERE IN THE 20S. MIXING SHOULD REACH A LITTLE
ABOVE 900 MB...WITH TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER SUPPORTING MAX SFC
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S.

SUNDAY... NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SWEEPS SOUTH AND EAST FROM
CENTRAL CANADA TO QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS DRIVES A COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR AREA EARLY SUNDAY. MOISTURE FIELDS ARE MORE ROBUST IN
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS IS THE DYNAMICS. EXPECT SOME SKY COVER LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND PART OF SUNDAY BUT AT BEST SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
MORNING SNOW SHOWERS. MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS MAX SFC TEMPS INTO
THE 40S. BUT AFTERNOON MIXING SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
30S. WILL NUDGE MODEL FORECAST DOWN 1-2 DEGREES.

MONDAY-TUESDAY... SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE STARTS TODAY OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CROSSES TO THE SOUTHEAST USA...FORMING A
CLOSED UPPER LOW ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY.  THE LOW THEN
PASSES WELL OFFSHORE OF NANTUCKET ON MONDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE
UPPER LOW DIVERGE BY SUNDAY WITH THE ECMWF FARTHEST WEST AND CLOSEST
TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. IN MOST CASES THE CLOUDS AND PCPN STAY WELL
OFFSHORE. BUT THE ECMWF IS CLOSE ENOUGH AND BRINGS ENOUGH OF AN EAST
FLOW TO BRING MEASURABLE PCPN TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS IT IS
THE OUTLIER SOLUTION WE WOULD TEND TO DISCOUNT IT. BUT WITH
DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST/APPALACHIANS AND BENDING OF THE
FLOW MORE UP THE COAST...A MORE WESTERN TRACK IS IN THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. WE WILL BRING SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AND VERY-LOW-END CHANCE
POPS TO CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE STARTS SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS THIS MORNING AND
MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT TO THE WESTERN LAKES
SUNDAY. IT THEN DIGS AND CARVES A DEEP TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE
EASTERN USA WITH A SOUTH-TO-NORTH FLOW OVER THE EASTERN USA BY
MONDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN LOOKS TO BE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES BEHIND SUNDAY/S FRONT AND
WITH THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH SUGGEST MAINLY SNOW. UNCERTAINTIES IN
THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE SYSTEM LEAVE THE CHANCE OF
A CHANGE TO RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY... YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE TROUGH AND
KICKS IT NORTHEAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MARITIMES. THIS
SHOULD BRING DRYING AND IMPROVING SKIES BUT WITH LINGERING WIDELY
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AS THE COLD POOL SWINGS OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BEFORE 12Z...MAINLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. HEAVY RAIN MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE EXPECT ONLY SCT SHOWERS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ACROSS THE AREA
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. CANNOT RULE
OUT A STRAY SHOWER BEFORE 15Z.

TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...VFR FOR WESTERN MASS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
IFR/LIFR DEVELOPING SE NEW ENG AND CAPE/ISLANDS WITH RAIN CHANGING
TO ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...IMPROVING
FRI AFTERNOON. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE TRANSITION FROM IFR TO VFR
OCCURS. ANTICIPATE ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR RUNWAYS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF PRECIP TONIGHT.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN DEVELOPING
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HAVE DROPPED GALE WARNING FOR ALL THE WATERS AND CONVERTED THEM TO
SCA. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS TODAY AND STALL OUT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY BRINGING PRECIP AND PERHAPS SNOW OVER THE WATERS.
VSBYS MAY BE REDUCED AS WELL. GUSTS WILL INCREASE CLOSE TO 25-30
KTS SO EXPECT SCA TO EXPAND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...

FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.  NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FEET WILL ALSO DIMINISH. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST THE OUTER WATERS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY BECOME NORTHWEST SUNDAY
AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE WATERS. A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY EAST OF CAPE ANN. SEAS 5 TO 6 FEET MAINLY ON
THE OUTER WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...NORTH WINDS TURNING NORTHEAST AND INCREASING
WITH GUSTS TO AT LEAST 30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FEET
INITIALLY...BUT THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR FEB 4TH...

BOS...64/1991
BDL...64/1991
PVD...66/1991
ORH...61/1991

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR MAZ017>023.
RI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR RIZ002-004>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ231>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
CLIMATE...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 040925
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
425 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE COAST...THEN LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST TONIGHT AND TRACK
ALONG THE FRONT PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF NANTUCKET FRIDAY. THIS
STORM WILL LIKELY BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO SOUTHEAST NEW ENG
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER OVER
THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A WEAK COLD FRONT SUNDAY MAY BRING A FEW
CLOUD. A COMPLEX COASTAL STORM SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION LATER
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1 AM UPDATE...

BULK OF THE PRECIP HAS MOVED OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS THIS
MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS UPSTATE NY
AND WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN MASS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS IS
IN LINE WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. OTHERWISE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK EARLY THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SEVERAL UPDATES TO THIS FORECAST AS WAA/HIGHER THETA-E VALUE RAIN
CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BULK OF THE
RAIN IS NOT AT A BOS TO PVD LINE AND POINTS EASTWARD. SHOULD MOVE
OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER LOOKING UPSTREAM...A FEW SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS UPSTATE NY WHERE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
LOCATED. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE RAIN AS WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
FLOW.

GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS POTENT LLJ CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS JET SEAMS TO STALL OVER
THE CAPE AND ISLANDS KEEPING GUSTS UP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HAVE RECEIVED A LOT OF DAMAGE REPORTS EVEN THOUGH GUSTS ARE IN
30-40 MPH RANGE. A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE GUSTED TO 45 MPH BUT THAT
HAS BEEN FOCUSED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS NORTHEAST
MASS...WHICH IS NEAR THE CORE OF THE JET. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BEGIN
TO SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST.

LASTLY ONE THING TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON IS THE FOG POTENTIAL. HAVE
NOTICED DOWN STREAM THAT SEVERAL SITES HAVE DROPPED DOWN TO DENSE
FOG...ESP ACROSS EASTERN PA. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS
THE REGION IS IN A VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND IF SKIES END UP CLEARING
A BIT...THEN VSBYS WILL GO DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT STALLS OFF THE SOUTH COAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP SOME SHOWERS ON THE SOUTH COAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.  THE BIG STORY FOR THURSDAY WILL BE THE
TEMPERATURES.  AFTER STARTING OUT WITH MINS WARMER THAN OUR NORMAL
MAXES...TEMPS WILL CLIMB QUICKLY THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE 50S TO
EVEN AROUND 60 ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.  AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO COOL BACK
INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

BIG PICTURE...

LONGWAVE SCALE PATTERN SHOWS DIGGING TROUGH EAST AND BUILDING RIDGE
WEST. THIS POINTS TO COLDER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE
WEEKEND AND FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE EASTERN TROUGH WITH CONTINUED VARIATIONS BETWEEN
MODELS ESPECIALLY ON POSITIONS AND EFFECTS.

TWO KEY SHORTWAVES ARE EITHER OVER THE PACIFIC OR JUST MOVING ASHORE
OVER THE WESTERN USA AND ITS DENSER OBSERVATION NETWORK. THEREFORE
CHANGEABLE RUN-RUN DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE TO BE EXPECTED.
CONFIDENCE FOR THE EVOLVING WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAINS LOW.

THE DAILIES...

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT AND INCREASING MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS SATURDAY. OBSERVED TEMPS UPSTREAM UNDER THE RIDGE
SUGGEST MIN TEMPS HERE IN THE 20S. MIXING SHOULD REACH A LITTLE
ABOVE 900 MB...WITH TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER SUPPORTING MAX SFC
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S.

SUNDAY... NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SWEEPS SOUTH AND EAST FROM
CENTRAL CANADA TO QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS DRIVES A COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR AREA EARLY SUNDAY. MOISTURE FIELDS ARE MORE ROBUST IN
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS IS THE DYNAMICS. EXPECT SOME SKY COVER LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND PART OF SUNDAY BUT AT BEST SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
MORNING SNOW SHOWERS. MODEL GUIDENCE BRINGS MAX SFC TEMPS INTO THE
40S. BUT AFTERNOON MIXING SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.
WILL NUDGE MODEL FORECAST DOWN 1-2 DEGREES.

MONDAY-TUESDAY... SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE STARTS TODAY OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CROSSES TO THE SOUTHEAST USA...FORMING A
CLOSED UPPER LOW ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY.  THE LOW THEN
PASSES WELL OFFSHORE OF NANTUCKET ON MONDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE
UPPER LOW DIVERGE BY SUNDAY WITH THE ECMWF FARTHEST WEST AND CLOSEST
TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. IN MOST CASES THE CLOUDS AND PCPN STAY WELL
OFFSHORE. BUT THE ECMWF IS CLOSE ENOUGH AND BRINGS ENOUGH OF AN EAST
FLOW TO BRING MEASUREABLE PCPN TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS IT IS THE
OUTLIER SOLUTION WE WOULD TEND TO DISCOUNT IT. BUT WITH DIGGING
TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST/APPALACHIANS AND BENDING OF THE FLOW MORE UP
THE COAST...A MORE WESTERN TRACK IS IN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY.
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. WE WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AND VERY-LOW-END CHANCE POPS TO CAPE COD
AND ISLANDS.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE STARTS SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS THIS MORNING AND
MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT TO THE WESTERN LAKES
SUNDAY. IT THEN DIGS AND CARVES A DEEP TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE
EASTERN USA WITH A SOUTH-TO-NORTH FLOW OVER THE EASTERN USA BY
MONDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN LOOKS TO BE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES BEHIND SUNDAY/S FRONT AND
WITH THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH SUGGEST MAINLY SNOW. UNCERTAINTIES IN
THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE SYSTEM LEAVE THE CHANCE OF
A CHANGE TO RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY... YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE TROUGH AND
KICKS IT NORTHEAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MARITIMES. THIS
SHOULD BRING DRYING AND IMPROVING SKIES BUT WITH LINGERING WIDELY
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AS THE COLD POOL SWINGS OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BEFORE 12Z...MAINLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. HEAVY RAIN MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE EXPECT ONLY SCT SHOWERS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER 9Z.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ACROSS THE AREA
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. CANNOT RULE
OUT A STRAY SHOWER BEFORE 15Z.

TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...VFR FOR WESTERN MASS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
IFR/LIFR DEVELOPING SE NEW ENG AND CAPE/ISLANDS WITH RAIN CHANGING
TO ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...IMPROVING
FRI AFTERNOON. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE TRANSITION FROM IFR TO VFR
OCCURS. ANTICIPATE ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR RUNWAYS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF WINDS/PRECIP.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF WINDS/PRECIP.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN DEVELOPING
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT.  HAVE UPGRADED THE
SOUTHERN INNER WATERS TO GALE WARNINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT.  SEAS INCREASE TO 6 TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SEAS DIMINISH SLOWLY...ESPECIALLY ON
THE EASTERN WATERS WHERE THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLIER.  THE
COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS WHICH WILL SLOW THE
DIMINISHING OF THE SEAS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE FOR SEAS ON MOST OF THE OUTER WATERS.  SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON...REMAINING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...

FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.  NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FEET WILL ALSO DIMINISH. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST THE OUTER WATERS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY BECOME NORTHWEST SUNDAY
AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE WATERS. A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY EAST OF CAPE ANN. SEAS 5 TO 6 FEET MAINLY ON
THE OUTER WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ON THE OUTER
WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...NORTH WINDS TURNING NORTHEAST AND INCREASING
WITH GUSTS TO AT LEAST 30 KNOTS. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FEET
INITIALLY...BUT THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR FEB 4TH...

BOS...64/1991
BDL...64/1991
PVD...66/1991
ORH...61/1991

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR MAZ017>023.
RI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR RIZ002-004>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ231>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB/JWD
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 040540
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1240 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE COAST
THURSDAY...THEN LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST
THU NIGHT AND TRACK ALONG THE FRONT PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF
NANTUCKET FRIDAY. THIS STORM WILL LIKELY BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO
SOUTHEAST NEW ENG LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGS DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. A COASTAL STORM SHOULD AFFECT
THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

1 AM UPDATE...

BULK OF THE PRECIP HAS MOVED OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS THIS
MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS UPSTATE NY
AND WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN MASS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS IS
IN LINE WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. OTHERWISE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK EARLY THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SEVERAL UPDATES TO THIS FORECAST AS WAA/HIGHER THETA-E VALUE RAIN
CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BULK OF THE
RAIN IS NOT AT A BOS TO PVD LINE AND POINTS EASTWARD. SHOULD MOVE
OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER LOOKING UPSTREAM...A FEW SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS UPSTATE NY WHERE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
LOCATED. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE RAIN AS WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
FLOW.

GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS POTENT LLJ CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS JET SEAMS TO STALL OVER
THE CAPE AND ISLANDS KEEPING GUSTS UP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HAVE RECEIVED A LOT OF DAMAGE REPORTS EVEN THOUGH GUSTS ARE IN
30-40 MPH RANGE. A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE GUSTED TO 45 MPH BUT THAT
HAS BEEN FOCUSED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS NORTHEAST
MASS...WHICH IS NEAR THE CORE OF THE JET. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BEGIN
TO SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST.

LASTLY ONE THING TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON IS THE FOG POTENTIAL. HAVE
NOTICED DOWN STREAM THAT SEVERAL SITES HAVE DROPPED DOWN TO DENSE
FOG...ESP ACROSS EASTERN PA. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS
THE REGION IS IN A VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND IF SKIES END UP CLEARING
A BIT...THEN VSBYS WILL GO DOWN.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT STALLS OFF THE SOUTH COAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP SOME SHOWERS ON THE SOUTH COAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.  THE BIG STORY FOR THURSDAY WILL BE THE
TEMPERATURES.  AFTER STARTING OUT WITH MINS WARMER THAN OUR NORMAL
MAXES...TEMPS WILL CLIMB QUICKLY THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE 50S TO
EVEN AROUND 60 ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.  AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO COOL BACK
INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* RAIN CHANGING TO ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
  ACROSS SE NEW ENG
* DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND
* ANOTHER COASTAL STORM MAY AFFECT THE REGION SOMETIME MONDAY OR
  TUESDAY

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
** WINTER STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR FAR SE MA AND CAPE COD AND MARTHAS
  VINEYARD ***

DIFFICULT FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO
SNOW AND POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR THE COAST LATE THU NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. MODELS ALL SHOW A SHARP MID LEVEL TROF AXIS BACK TO THE
WEST WITH RATHER POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
TROF AND LIFTING NE OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. THIS WILL INDUCE A
FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE
COAST AND TRACKING SE OF THE BENCHMARK FRIDAY. THE DIFFICULTY WITH
THE FORECAST INVOLVES THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF SIGNIFICANT QPF MOVING
INTO SNE AND TIMING OF CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW AS THE COLUMN
COOLS FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL TROF.
ALSO THERE IS A SHARP QPF GRADIENT ON THE NW FRINGE OF THE PRECIP
FIELD WHICH ADDS TO THE UNCERTAINTY.

TIMING OF CHANGEOVER...
PRECIP COMES IN AS RAIN ALONG THE COAST THU EVENING. MODELS ARE IN
REASONABLE GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF CHANGEOVER WITHIN A FEW HOURS
WITH ECMWF LATER THAN NAM/GFS BUT IT IS ALSO HEAVIER WITH QPF. WE
USED A BLEND OF PARTIAL THICKNESS DATA WHICH SUGGESTS CHANGEOVER 06-
09Z SE MA/RI AND 09-12Z CAPE/ISLANDS.

QPF...
UKMET IS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE AND BRINGS
SIGNIFICANT QPF INTO SNE WITH AMOUNTS 1-2 INCHES ACROSS E NEW ENG
BUT IS A WARMER SOLUTION. ECMWF ALSO QUITE ROBUST WITH 0.50 INCHES
TO WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR AND 1 INCH TO WEST OF THE CAPE COD CANAL AND
A GOOD CHUNK OF THIS FALLS AFTER THE CHANGEOVER WHICH WOULD RESULT
IN A LARGE SWATH OF GREATER THAN 6 INCHES SNOW ACCUM FOR MUCH OF HE
COASTAL PLAIN. 12Z GFS AND NAM ARE ON THE EASTERN
ENVELOPE...CONFINING HEAVY QPF TO CAPE/ISLANDS WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS
BACK TO THE I95 CORRIDOR...BUT 18Z NAM HAS TRENDED EAST AND IS A
SHUTOUT FOR BOS/PVD WITH ONLY LIGHT QPF AFTER CHANGEOVER FOR
CAPE/ISLANDS. VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST SO WE ARE LEANING TOWARD A
BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AS WELL AS ECMWF EPS MEAN. GIVEN
SHARPNESS OF THE UPPER TROF AND STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE EXPECT
THIS TO BACK FLOW ENOUGH TO PUSH HEAVIER QPF ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS AND
POSSIBLY FAR SE MA NEAR THE CANAL BUT MUCH LESS CONFIDENCE
GETTING FURTHER NW.

SNOWFALL...
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF 6 INCHES ACCUM IS THE AREA NEAR THE CAPE COD
CANAL SO WE ISSUED A WATCH FOR FAR SE MA AND CAPE COD...INCLUDING
MARTHAS VINEYARD. SNOW COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES VERY LATE THU NIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING WHICH MAY AFFECT THE MORNING COMMUTE. DESPITE MORE
QPF FOR NANTUCKET...WE EXPECT LESS SNOWFALL THERE DUE TO LATER
TIMING OF CHANGEOVER AND MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH WILL LEAD TO
SOME MELTING. OBVIOUSLY WITH SHARP MOISTURE/QPF GRADIENT ON THE NW
FRINGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD THERE IS BIG BUST POTENTIAL. FURTHER
EAST AND ITS JUST MINOR ACCUM FOR CAPE COD...BUT FURTHER WEST AND
HEAVY SNOW COULD EXTEND BACK ACROSS BOS/PVD WITH MORE RAIN FOR THE
CAPE/ISLANDS. OUR PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL MAPS AND BEST/WORST CASE
SCENARIOS TRY TO COMMUNICATE THE EXPECTED RANGE OF EXPECTATIONS.
WATCH WAS BASED ON A 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF 6 INCHES WITH
LIKELIHOOD OF AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW FOR THIS AREA.
INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THERE ARE MANY ECMWF EPS MEMBERS WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL BACK ACROSS COASTAL PLAIN. THIS MAY BE TOO
AGGRESSIVE...BUT 51 MEMBER ECMWF EPS HAS 50 PERCENT PROBS FOR 6
INCHES SE MA AND 90 PERCENT FOR 3 INCHES.

IMPACTS...
THIS WILL BE A WET SNOW AND IF HEAVY SNOW MATERIALIZES THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR POWER OUTAGES DUE TO ACCUMULATION ON TREES AND POWER
LINES.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER REGION SAT WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
CLIPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL SWING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUN...BUT BEST DYNAMICS/MOISTURE REMAIN
FAR ENOUGH TO OUR N THAT WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY. HOWEVER FRONT WILL
BRING COLDER AIRMASS INTO REGION BY SUN NIGHT WHICH SETS STAGE FOR
POTENTIALLY STORMY WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH HANDLING OF TWO SHORTWAVES
CURRENTLY OVER PACIFIC...WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED UNTIL THU OR FRI
WHEN THESE FEATURES BECOME BETTER SAMPLED. SO EXPECT TO SEE WOBBLES
OR EVEN WILD SWINGS IN THESE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS UNTIL THEN.

12Z ECMWF NOW PUTS MORE EMPHASIS ON FIRST SHORT WAVE...WHICH RESULTS
IN COASTAL LOW AFFECTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MON BUT IS MORE OF A
GLANCING BLOW DUE TO A MORE OFFSHORE TRACK. 12Z GFS PUTS MORE FOCUS
ON SECOND SHORT WAVE AND AS A RESULT ITS COASTAL LOW HAS MORE OF AN
IMPACT ON SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUE. DUE TO WIDE VARIATIONS IN THESE
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS...WE ARE BASING FORECAST MORE ON ENSEMBLES
AND WILL UTILIZE CONSENSUS BLEND TO WORK OUT DETAILS FOR NOW.

THIS RESULTS IN SNOW MOVING INTO REGION LATER MON INTO TUE...BUT
DESPITE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WE WILL PROBABLY BE DEALING WITH
WARMTH IN BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH WILL GIVE US ISSUES WITH RAIN/SNOW
MIX OR EVEN RAIN...PRIMARILY FROM PROVIDENCE AND BOSTON TO CAPE COD
AND ISLANDS. SETUP RIGHT NOW FAVORS HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS
INTERIOR...BUT AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND THERE COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST IN COMING DAYS.

FOR NOW...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE BUT WE NEED TO SEE HOW THESE TWO
SHORT WAVES EVOLVE AS THEY ENTER WEST COAST AND WORK THEIR WAY
ACROSS COUNTRY.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
AGAIN MODEL SPREAD IS HIGH AT THIS TIME RANGE GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN
HOW MON/TUE EVOLVES. BUT WE DO EXPECT TO SEE DRYING IN WAKE OF
SYSTEM WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BEFORE 12Z...MAINLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. HEAVY RAIN MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE EXPECT ONLY SCT SHOWERS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER 9Z.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ACROSS THE AREA
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. CANNOT RULE
OUT A STRAY SHOWER BEFORE 15Z.

TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...VFR FOR WESTERN MASS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
IFR/LIFR DEVELOPING SE NEW ENG AND CAPE/ISLANDS WITH RAIN CHANGING
TO ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...IMPROVING
FRI AFTERNOON. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE TRANSITION FROM IFR TO VFR
OCCURS. ANTICIPATE ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR RUNWAYS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF WINDS/PRECIP.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF WINDS/PRECIP.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN OR SNOW...ESPECIALLY LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT.  HAVE UPGRADED THE
SOUTHERN INNER WATERS TO GALE WARNINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT.  SEAS INCREASE TO 6 TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SEAS DIMINISH SLOWLY...ESPECIALLY ON
THE EASTERN WATERS WHERE THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLIER.  THE
COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS WHICH WILL SLOW THE
DIMINISHING OF THE SEAS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE FOR SEAS ON MOST OF THE OUTER WATERS.  SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON...REMAINING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...

THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...INCREASING N WINDS LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE OVER S WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED IN
RAIN...WHICH WILL CHANGE TO SNOW LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI MORNING.

SAT INTO SUN...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA.

MON...CONFIDENCE IS LOW BUT EXPECT INCREASING N/NE WINDS AHEAD OF
COASTAL LOW. SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH 25-30KT GUSTS AND SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 FT OR HIGHER ON OUTER WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR FEB 4TH...

BOS...64/1991
BDL...64/1991
PVD...66/1991
ORH...61/1991

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR MAZ018>023.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ231-232-
     255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ230-
     233-234-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC/JWD
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
CLIMATE...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 040540
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1240 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE COAST
THURSDAY...THEN LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST
THU NIGHT AND TRACK ALONG THE FRONT PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF
NANTUCKET FRIDAY. THIS STORM WILL LIKELY BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO
SOUTHEAST NEW ENG LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGS DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. A COASTAL STORM SHOULD AFFECT
THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

1 AM UPDATE...

BULK OF THE PRECIP HAS MOVED OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS THIS
MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS UPSTATE NY
AND WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN MASS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS IS
IN LINE WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. OTHERWISE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK EARLY THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SEVERAL UPDATES TO THIS FORECAST AS WAA/HIGHER THETA-E VALUE RAIN
CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BULK OF THE
RAIN IS NOT AT A BOS TO PVD LINE AND POINTS EASTWARD. SHOULD MOVE
OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER LOOKING UPSTREAM...A FEW SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS UPSTATE NY WHERE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
LOCATED. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE RAIN AS WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
FLOW.

GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS POTENT LLJ CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS JET SEAMS TO STALL OVER
THE CAPE AND ISLANDS KEEPING GUSTS UP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HAVE RECEIVED A LOT OF DAMAGE REPORTS EVEN THOUGH GUSTS ARE IN
30-40 MPH RANGE. A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE GUSTED TO 45 MPH BUT THAT
HAS BEEN FOCUSED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS NORTHEAST
MASS...WHICH IS NEAR THE CORE OF THE JET. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BEGIN
TO SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST.

LASTLY ONE THING TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON IS THE FOG POTENTIAL. HAVE
NOTICED DOWN STREAM THAT SEVERAL SITES HAVE DROPPED DOWN TO DENSE
FOG...ESP ACROSS EASTERN PA. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS
THE REGION IS IN A VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND IF SKIES END UP CLEARING
A BIT...THEN VSBYS WILL GO DOWN.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT STALLS OFF THE SOUTH COAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP SOME SHOWERS ON THE SOUTH COAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.  THE BIG STORY FOR THURSDAY WILL BE THE
TEMPERATURES.  AFTER STARTING OUT WITH MINS WARMER THAN OUR NORMAL
MAXES...TEMPS WILL CLIMB QUICKLY THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE 50S TO
EVEN AROUND 60 ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.  AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO COOL BACK
INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* RAIN CHANGING TO ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
  ACROSS SE NEW ENG
* DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND
* ANOTHER COASTAL STORM MAY AFFECT THE REGION SOMETIME MONDAY OR
  TUESDAY

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
** WINTER STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR FAR SE MA AND CAPE COD AND MARTHAS
  VINEYARD ***

DIFFICULT FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO
SNOW AND POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR THE COAST LATE THU NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. MODELS ALL SHOW A SHARP MID LEVEL TROF AXIS BACK TO THE
WEST WITH RATHER POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
TROF AND LIFTING NE OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. THIS WILL INDUCE A
FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE
COAST AND TRACKING SE OF THE BENCHMARK FRIDAY. THE DIFFICULTY WITH
THE FORECAST INVOLVES THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF SIGNIFICANT QPF MOVING
INTO SNE AND TIMING OF CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW AS THE COLUMN
COOLS FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL TROF.
ALSO THERE IS A SHARP QPF GRADIENT ON THE NW FRINGE OF THE PRECIP
FIELD WHICH ADDS TO THE UNCERTAINTY.

TIMING OF CHANGEOVER...
PRECIP COMES IN AS RAIN ALONG THE COAST THU EVENING. MODELS ARE IN
REASONABLE GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF CHANGEOVER WITHIN A FEW HOURS
WITH ECMWF LATER THAN NAM/GFS BUT IT IS ALSO HEAVIER WITH QPF. WE
USED A BLEND OF PARTIAL THICKNESS DATA WHICH SUGGESTS CHANGEOVER 06-
09Z SE MA/RI AND 09-12Z CAPE/ISLANDS.

QPF...
UKMET IS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE AND BRINGS
SIGNIFICANT QPF INTO SNE WITH AMOUNTS 1-2 INCHES ACROSS E NEW ENG
BUT IS A WARMER SOLUTION. ECMWF ALSO QUITE ROBUST WITH 0.50 INCHES
TO WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR AND 1 INCH TO WEST OF THE CAPE COD CANAL AND
A GOOD CHUNK OF THIS FALLS AFTER THE CHANGEOVER WHICH WOULD RESULT
IN A LARGE SWATH OF GREATER THAN 6 INCHES SNOW ACCUM FOR MUCH OF HE
COASTAL PLAIN. 12Z GFS AND NAM ARE ON THE EASTERN
ENVELOPE...CONFINING HEAVY QPF TO CAPE/ISLANDS WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS
BACK TO THE I95 CORRIDOR...BUT 18Z NAM HAS TRENDED EAST AND IS A
SHUTOUT FOR BOS/PVD WITH ONLY LIGHT QPF AFTER CHANGEOVER FOR
CAPE/ISLANDS. VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST SO WE ARE LEANING TOWARD A
BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AS WELL AS ECMWF EPS MEAN. GIVEN
SHARPNESS OF THE UPPER TROF AND STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE EXPECT
THIS TO BACK FLOW ENOUGH TO PUSH HEAVIER QPF ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS AND
POSSIBLY FAR SE MA NEAR THE CANAL BUT MUCH LESS CONFIDENCE
GETTING FURTHER NW.

SNOWFALL...
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF 6 INCHES ACCUM IS THE AREA NEAR THE CAPE COD
CANAL SO WE ISSUED A WATCH FOR FAR SE MA AND CAPE COD...INCLUDING
MARTHAS VINEYARD. SNOW COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES VERY LATE THU NIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING WHICH MAY AFFECT THE MORNING COMMUTE. DESPITE MORE
QPF FOR NANTUCKET...WE EXPECT LESS SNOWFALL THERE DUE TO LATER
TIMING OF CHANGEOVER AND MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH WILL LEAD TO
SOME MELTING. OBVIOUSLY WITH SHARP MOISTURE/QPF GRADIENT ON THE NW
FRINGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD THERE IS BIG BUST POTENTIAL. FURTHER
EAST AND ITS JUST MINOR ACCUM FOR CAPE COD...BUT FURTHER WEST AND
HEAVY SNOW COULD EXTEND BACK ACROSS BOS/PVD WITH MORE RAIN FOR THE
CAPE/ISLANDS. OUR PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL MAPS AND BEST/WORST CASE
SCENARIOS TRY TO COMMUNICATE THE EXPECTED RANGE OF EXPECTATIONS.
WATCH WAS BASED ON A 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF 6 INCHES WITH
LIKELIHOOD OF AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW FOR THIS AREA.
INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THERE ARE MANY ECMWF EPS MEMBERS WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL BACK ACROSS COASTAL PLAIN. THIS MAY BE TOO
AGGRESSIVE...BUT 51 MEMBER ECMWF EPS HAS 50 PERCENT PROBS FOR 6
INCHES SE MA AND 90 PERCENT FOR 3 INCHES.

IMPACTS...
THIS WILL BE A WET SNOW AND IF HEAVY SNOW MATERIALIZES THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR POWER OUTAGES DUE TO ACCUMULATION ON TREES AND POWER
LINES.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER REGION SAT WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
CLIPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL SWING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUN...BUT BEST DYNAMICS/MOISTURE REMAIN
FAR ENOUGH TO OUR N THAT WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY. HOWEVER FRONT WILL
BRING COLDER AIRMASS INTO REGION BY SUN NIGHT WHICH SETS STAGE FOR
POTENTIALLY STORMY WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH HANDLING OF TWO SHORTWAVES
CURRENTLY OVER PACIFIC...WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED UNTIL THU OR FRI
WHEN THESE FEATURES BECOME BETTER SAMPLED. SO EXPECT TO SEE WOBBLES
OR EVEN WILD SWINGS IN THESE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS UNTIL THEN.

12Z ECMWF NOW PUTS MORE EMPHASIS ON FIRST SHORT WAVE...WHICH RESULTS
IN COASTAL LOW AFFECTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MON BUT IS MORE OF A
GLANCING BLOW DUE TO A MORE OFFSHORE TRACK. 12Z GFS PUTS MORE FOCUS
ON SECOND SHORT WAVE AND AS A RESULT ITS COASTAL LOW HAS MORE OF AN
IMPACT ON SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUE. DUE TO WIDE VARIATIONS IN THESE
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS...WE ARE BASING FORECAST MORE ON ENSEMBLES
AND WILL UTILIZE CONSENSUS BLEND TO WORK OUT DETAILS FOR NOW.

THIS RESULTS IN SNOW MOVING INTO REGION LATER MON INTO TUE...BUT
DESPITE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WE WILL PROBABLY BE DEALING WITH
WARMTH IN BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH WILL GIVE US ISSUES WITH RAIN/SNOW
MIX OR EVEN RAIN...PRIMARILY FROM PROVIDENCE AND BOSTON TO CAPE COD
AND ISLANDS. SETUP RIGHT NOW FAVORS HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS
INTERIOR...BUT AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND THERE COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST IN COMING DAYS.

FOR NOW...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE BUT WE NEED TO SEE HOW THESE TWO
SHORT WAVES EVOLVE AS THEY ENTER WEST COAST AND WORK THEIR WAY
ACROSS COUNTRY.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
AGAIN MODEL SPREAD IS HIGH AT THIS TIME RANGE GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN
HOW MON/TUE EVOLVES. BUT WE DO EXPECT TO SEE DRYING IN WAKE OF
SYSTEM WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BEFORE 12Z...MAINLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. HEAVY RAIN MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE EXPECT ONLY SCT SHOWERS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER 9Z.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ACROSS THE AREA
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. CANNOT RULE
OUT A STRAY SHOWER BEFORE 15Z.

TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...VFR FOR WESTERN MASS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
IFR/LIFR DEVELOPING SE NEW ENG AND CAPE/ISLANDS WITH RAIN CHANGING
TO ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...IMPROVING
FRI AFTERNOON. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE TRANSITION FROM IFR TO VFR
OCCURS. ANTICIPATE ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR RUNWAYS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF WINDS/PRECIP.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF WINDS/PRECIP.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN OR SNOW...ESPECIALLY LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT.  HAVE UPGRADED THE
SOUTHERN INNER WATERS TO GALE WARNINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT.  SEAS INCREASE TO 6 TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SEAS DIMINISH SLOWLY...ESPECIALLY ON
THE EASTERN WATERS WHERE THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLIER.  THE
COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS WHICH WILL SLOW THE
DIMINISHING OF THE SEAS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE FOR SEAS ON MOST OF THE OUTER WATERS.  SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON...REMAINING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...

THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...INCREASING N WINDS LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE OVER S WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED IN
RAIN...WHICH WILL CHANGE TO SNOW LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI MORNING.

SAT INTO SUN...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA.

MON...CONFIDENCE IS LOW BUT EXPECT INCREASING N/NE WINDS AHEAD OF
COASTAL LOW. SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH 25-30KT GUSTS AND SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 FT OR HIGHER ON OUTER WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR FEB 4TH...

BOS...64/1991
BDL...64/1991
PVD...66/1991
ORH...61/1991

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR MAZ018>023.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ231-232-
     255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ230-
     233-234-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC/JWD
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
CLIMATE...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 040320
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1020 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE COAST
THURSDAY...THEN LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST
THU NIGHT AND TRACK ALONG THE FRONT PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF
NANTUCKET FRIDAY. THIS STORM WILL LIKELY BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO
SOUTHEAST NEW ENG LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGS DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. A COASTAL STORM SHOULD AFFECT
THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

1030 PM UPDATE...

SEVERAL UPDATES TO THIS FORECAST AS WAA/HIGHER THETA-E VALUE RAIN
CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BULK OF THE
RAIN IS NOT AT A BOS TO PVD LINE AND POINTS EASTWARD. SHOULD MOVE
OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER LOOKING UPSTREAM...A FEW SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS UPSTATE NY WHERE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
LOCATED. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE RAIN AS WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
FLOW.

GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS POTENT LLJ CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS JET SEAMS TO STALL OVER
THE CAPE AND ISLANDS KEEPING GUSTS UP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HAVE RECEIVED A LOT OF DAMAGE REPORTS EVEN THOUGH GUSTS ARE IN
30-40 MPH RANGE. A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE GUSTED TO 45 MPH BUT THAT
HAS BEEN FOCUSED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS NORTHEAST
MASS...WHICH IS NEAR THE CORE OF THE JET. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BEGIN
TO SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST.

LASTLY ONE THING TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON IS THE FOG POTENTIAL. HAVE
NOTICED DOWN STREAM THAT SEVERAL SITES HAVE DROPPED DOWN TO DENSE
FOG...ESP ACROSS EASTERN PA. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS
THE REGION IS IN A VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND IF SKIES END UP CLEARING
A BIT...THEN VSBYS WILL GO DOWN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS SNE THIS EVENING ASSOCD WITH STRONG
WARM ADVECTION AND ENHANCED BY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. MODELS INDICATING SOME DRYING ALOFT
MOVING INTO WESTERN NEW ENG THIS EVENING WHICH WILL RESULT IN RAIN
DECREASING WHILE ACTIVITY BECOMES FOCUSED ACROSS SE NEW ENG ALONG
THE AXIS OF THE SLOW MOVING LOW LEVEL JET. ADJUSTED POPS TO
REFLECT THIS THINKING. WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED TO THE N OF THE
REGION AS TEMPS HAVE SOARED INTO AND THROUGH THE 50S. WILL LIKELY
SEE TEMPS REACH 60 DEGREES IN THE COASTAL PLAIN OVERNIGHT. COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO W NEW ENG LATE TONIGHT WITH TEMPS COOLING INTO
THE 40S HERE TOWARD DAYBREAK...BUT REMAINING IN THE 50S ELSEWHERE.

AXIS OF LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE TO E NEW ENG THIS EVENING THEN
ACROSS SE NEW ENG COAST OVERNIGHT. STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN
PLACE WHICH WILL LIMIT STRONGER GUSTS FROM REACHING THE SURFACE.
FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECTING WINDS TO GUST UP TO 30-40 MPH WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS SHIFTING TO THE CAPE/ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. IF
ANY HEAVIER RAIN OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO TAP INTO
THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...WE MAY SEE A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN AND
AROUND THOSE STORMS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT STALLS OFF THE SOUTH COAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP SOME SHOWERS ON THE SOUTH COAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.  THE BIG STORY FOR THURSDAY WILL BE THE
TEMPERATURES.  AFTER STARTING OUT WITH MINS WARMER THAN OUR NORMAL
MAXES...TEMPS WILL CLIMB QUICKLY THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE 50S TO
EVEN AROUND 60 ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.  AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO COOL BACK
INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* RAIN CHANGING TO ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
  ACROSS SE NEW ENG
* DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND
* ANOTHER COASTAL STORM MAY AFFECT THE REGION SOMETIME MONDAY OR
  TUESDAY

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
** WINTER STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR FAR SE MA AND CAPE COD AND MARTHAS
  VINEYARD ***

DIFFICULT FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO
SNOW AND POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR THE COAST LATE THU NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. MODELS ALL SHOW A SHARP MID LEVEL TROF AXIS BACK TO THE
WEST WITH RATHER POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
TROF AND LIFTING NE OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. THIS WILL INDUCE A
FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE
COAST AND TRACKING SE OF THE BENCHMARK FRIDAY. THE DIFFICULTY WITH
THE FORECAST INVOLVES THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF SIGNIFICANT QPF MOVING
INTO SNE AND TIMING OF CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW AS THE COLUMN
COOLS FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL TROF.
ALSO THERE IS A SHARP QPF GRADIENT ON THE NW FRINGE OF THE PRECIP
FIELD WHICH ADDS TO THE UNCERTAINTY.

TIMING OF CHANGEOVER...
PRECIP COMES IN AS RAIN ALONG THE COAST THU EVENING. MODELS ARE IN
REASONABLE GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF CHANGEOVER WITHIN A FEW HOURS
WITH ECMWF LATER THAN NAM/GFS BUT IT IS ALSO HEAVIER WITH QPF. WE
USED A BLEND OF PARTIAL THICKNESS DATA WHICH SUGGESTS CHANGEOVER 06-
09Z SE MA/RI AND 09-12Z CAPE/ISLANDS.

QPF...
UKMET IS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE AND BRINGS
SIGNIFICANT QPF INTO SNE WITH AMOUNTS 1-2 INCHES ACROSS E NEW ENG
BUT IS A WARMER SOLUTION. ECMWF ALSO QUITE ROBUST WITH 0.50 INCHES
TO WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR AND 1 INCH TO WEST OF THE CAPE COD CANAL AND
A GOOD CHUNK OF THIS FALLS AFTER THE CHANGEOVER WHICH WOULD RESULT
IN A LARGE SWATH OF GREATER THAN 6 INCHES SNOW ACCUM FOR MUCH OF HE
COASTAL PLAIN. 12Z GFS AND NAM ARE ON THE EASTERN
ENVELOPE...CONFINING HEAVY QPF TO CAPE/ISLANDS WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS
BACK TO THE I95 CORRIDOR...BUT 18Z NAM HAS TRENDED EAST AND IS A
SHUTOUT FOR BOS/PVD WITH ONLY LIGHT QPF AFTER CHANGEOVER FOR
CAPE/ISLANDS. VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST SO WE ARE LEANING TOWARD A
BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AS WELL AS ECMWF EPS MEAN. GIVEN
SHARPNESS OF THE UPPER TROF AND STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE EXPECT
THIS TO BACK FLOW ENOUGH TO PUSH HEAVIER QPF ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS AND
POSSIBLY FAR SE MA NEAR THE CANAL BUT MUCH LESS CONFIDENCE
GETTING FURTHER NW.

SNOWFALL...
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF 6 INCHES ACCUM IS THE AREA NEAR THE CAPE COD
CANAL SO WE ISSUED A WATCH FOR FAR SE MA AND CAPE COD...INCLUDING
MARTHAS VINEYARD. SNOW COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES VERY LATE THU NIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING WHICH MAY AFFECT THE MORNING COMMUTE. DESPITE MORE
QPF FOR NANTUCKET...WE EXPECT LESS SNOWFALL THERE DUE TO LATER
TIMING OF CHANGEOVER AND MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH WILL LEAD TO
SOME MELTING. OBVIOUSLY WITH SHARP MOISTURE/QPF GRADIENT ON THE NW
FRINGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD THERE IS BIG BUST POTENTIAL. FURTHER
EAST AND ITS JUST MINOR ACCUM FOR CAPE COD...BUT FURTHER WEST AND
HEAVY SNOW COULD EXTEND BACK ACROSS BOS/PVD WITH MORE RAIN FOR THE
CAPE/ISLANDS. OUR PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL MAPS AND BEST/WORST CASE
SCENARIOS TRY TO COMMUNICATE THE EXPECTED RANGE OF EXPECTATIONS.
WATCH WAS BASED ON A 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF 6 INCHES WITH
LIKELIHOOD OF AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW FOR THIS AREA.
INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THERE ARE MANY ECMWF EPS MEMBERS WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL BACK ACROSS COASTAL PLAIN. THIS MAY BE TOO
AGGRESSIVE...BUT 51 MEMBER ECMWF EPS HAS 50 PERCENT PROBS FOR 6
INCHES SE MA AND 90 PERCENT FOR 3 INCHES.

IMPACTS...
THIS WILL BE A WET SNOW AND IF HEAVY SNOW MATERIALIZES THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR POWER OUTAGES DUE TO ACCUMULATION ON TREES AND POWER
LINES.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER REGION SAT WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
CLIPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL SWING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUN...BUT BEST DYNAMICS/MOISTURE REMAIN
FAR ENOUGH TO OUR N THAT WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY. HOWEVER FRONT WILL
BRING COLDER AIRMASS INTO REGION BY SUN NIGHT WHICH SETS STAGE FOR
POTENTIALLY STORMY WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH HANDLING OF TWO SHORTWAVES
CURRENTLY OVER PACIFIC...WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED UNTIL THU OR FRI
WHEN THESE FEATURES BECOME BETTER SAMPLED. SO EXPECT TO SEE WOBBLES
OR EVEN WILD SWINGS IN THESE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS UNTIL THEN.

12Z ECMWF NOW PUTS MORE EMPHASIS ON FIRST SHORT WAVE...WHICH RESULTS
IN COASTAL LOW AFFECTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MON BUT IS MORE OF A
GLANCING BLOW DUE TO A MORE OFFSHORE TRACK. 12Z GFS PUTS MORE FOCUS
ON SECOND SHORT WAVE AND AS A RESULT ITS COASTAL LOW HAS MORE OF AN
IMPACT ON SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUE. DUE TO WIDE VARIATIONS IN THESE
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS...WE ARE BASING FORECAST MORE ON ENSEMBLES
AND WILL UTILIZE CONSENSUS BLEND TO WORK OUT DETAILS FOR NOW.

THIS RESULTS IN SNOW MOVING INTO REGION LATER MON INTO TUE...BUT
DESPITE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WE WILL PROBABLY BE DEALING WITH
WARMTH IN BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH WILL GIVE US ISSUES WITH RAIN/SNOW
MIX OR EVEN RAIN...PRIMARILY FROM PROVIDENCE AND BOSTON TO CAPE COD
AND ISLANDS. SETUP RIGHT NOW FAVORS HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS
INTERIOR...BUT AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND THERE COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST IN COMING DAYS.

FOR NOW...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE BUT WE NEED TO SEE HOW THESE TWO
SHORT WAVES EVOLVE AS THEY ENTER WEST COAST AND WORK THEIR WAY
ACROSS COUNTRY.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
AGAIN MODEL SPREAD IS HIGH AT THIS TIME RANGE GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN
HOW MON/TUE EVOLVES. BUT WE DO EXPECT TO SEE DRYING IN WAKE OF
SYSTEM WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH RAIN SLOWLY
DIMINISHING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. RAIN WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND
ISLANDS. WILL SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
TERMINALS TOWARDS 12Z. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD TSRA ALONG THE SOUTH
COASTS OF RI/MA CONTINUES. AREAS OF LLWS ACROSS SNE THIS
EVENING...SHIFTING TO SE NEW ENG OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY...QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA THROUGH 15Z THOUGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF WINDS/PRECIP.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF WINDS/PRECIP.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR/LIFR DEVELOPING SE
NEW ENG AND CAPE/ISLANDS WITH RAIN CHANGING TO ACCUMULATING SNOW
LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...IMPROVING FRI AFTERNOON. MAINLY
VFR FURTHER INTO THE INTERIOR. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE TRANSITION
FROM IFR TO VFR OCCURS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN OR SNOW...ESPECIALLY LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT.  HAVE UPGRADED THE
SOUTHERN INNER WATERS TO GALE WARNINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT.  SEAS INCREASE TO 6 TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SEAS DIMINISH SLOWLY...ESPECIALLY ON
THE EASTERN WATERS WHERE THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLIER.  THE
COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS WHICH WILL SLOW THE
DIMINISHING OF THE SEAS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE FOR SEAS ON MOST OF THE OUTER WATERS.  SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON...REMAINING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...

THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...INCREASING N WINDS LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE OVER S WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED IN
RAIN...WHICH WILL CHANGE TO SNOW LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI MORNING.

SAT INTO SUN...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA.

MON...CONFIDENCE IS LOW BUT EXPECT INCREASING N/NE WINDS AHEAD OF
COASTAL LOW. SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH 25-30KT GUSTS AND SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 FT OR HIGHER ON OUTER WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR FEB 4TH...

BOS...64/1991
BDL...64/1991
PVD...66/1991
ORH...61/1991

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ018>023.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ231-232-255-256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ233>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ230.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC/JWD
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 040142
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
842 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE COAST
THURSDAY...THEN LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST
THU NIGHT AND TRACK ALONG THE FRONT PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF
NANTUCKET FRIDAY. THIS STORM WILL LIKELY BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO
SOUTHEAST NEW ENG LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGS DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. A COASTAL STORM SHOULD AFFECT
THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

9 PM UPDATE...

LLJ CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
STRONG GUSTS TO MIX DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IN FACT SOME
LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING OVER 35-40 MPH GUSTS. HIGHER GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL MASS AS THEY
HAVE THE BETTER POTENTIAL TO TAP INTO THE LLJ. THESE GUSTS
COMBINED WITH A SOGGY GROUND MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES
AND DOWN TREE LIMBS.

7 PM UPDATE...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS SNE THIS EVENING ASSOCD WITH STRONG
WARM ADVECTION AND ENHANCED BY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. MODELS INDICATING SOME DRYING ALOFT
MOVING INTO WESTERN NEW ENG THIS EVENING WHICH WILL RESULT IN RAIN
DECREASING WHILE ACTIVITY BECOMES FOCUSED ACROSS SE NEW ENG ALONG
THE AXIS OF THE SLOW MOVING LOW LEVEL JET. ADJUSTED POPS TO
REFLECT THIS THINKING. WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED TO THE N OF THE
REGION AS TEMPS HAVE SOARED INTO AND THROUGH THE 50S. WILL LIKELY
SEE TEMPS REACH 60 DEGREES IN THE COASTAL PLAIN OVERNIGHT. COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO W NEW ENG LATE TONIGHT WITH TEMPS COOLING INTO
THE 40S HERE TOWARD DAYBREAK...BUT REMAINING IN THE 50S ELSEWHERE.

AXIS OF LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE TO E NEW ENG THIS EVENING THEN
ACROSS SE NEW ENG COAST OVERNIGHT. STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN
PLACE WHICH WILL LIMIT STRONGER GUSTS FROM REACHING THE SURFACE.
FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECTING WINDS TO GUST UP TO 30-40 MPH WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS SHIFTING TO THE CAPE/ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. IF
ANY HEAVIER RAIN OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO TAP INTO
THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...WE MAY SEE A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN AND
AROUND THOSE STORMS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT STALLS OFF THE SOUTH COAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP SOME SHOWERS ON THE SOUTH COAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.  THE BIG STORY FOR THURSDAY WILL BE THE
TEMPERATURES.  AFTER STARTING OUT WITH MINS WARMER THAN OUR NORMAL
MAXES...TEMPS WILL CLIMB QUICKLY THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE 50S TO
EVEN AROUND 60 ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.  AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO COOL BACK
INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* RAIN CHANGING TO ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
  ACROSS SE NEW ENG
* DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND
* ANOTHER COASTAL STORM MAY AFFECT THE REGION SOMETIME MONDAY OR
  TUESDAY

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
** WINTER STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR FAR SE MA AND CAPE COD AND MARTHAS
  VINEYARD ***

DIFFICULT FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO
SNOW AND POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR THE COAST LATE THU NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. MODELS ALL SHOW A SHARP MID LEVEL TROF AXIS BACK TO THE
WEST WITH RATHER POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
TROF AND LIFTING NE OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. THIS WILL INDUCE A
FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE
COAST AND TRACKING SE OF THE BENCHMARK FRIDAY. THE DIFFICULTY WITH
THE FORECAST INVOLVES THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF SIGNIFICANT QPF MOVING
INTO SNE AND TIMING OF CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW AS THE COLUMN
COOLS FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL TROF.
ALSO THERE IS A SHARP QPF GRADIENT ON THE NW FRINGE OF THE PRECIP
FIELD WHICH ADDS TO THE UNCERTAINTY.

TIMING OF CHANGEOVER...
PRECIP COMES IN AS RAIN ALONG THE COAST THU EVENING. MODELS ARE IN
REASONABLE GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF CHANGEOVER WITHIN A FEW HOURS
WITH ECMWF LATER THAN NAM/GFS BUT IT IS ALSO HEAVIER WITH QPF. WE
USED A BLEND OF PARTIAL THICKNESS DATA WHICH SUGGESTS CHANGEOVER 06-
09Z SE MA/RI AND 09-12Z CAPE/ISLANDS.

QPF...
UKMET IS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE AND BRINGS
SIGNIFICANT QPF INTO SNE WITH AMOUNTS 1-2 INCHES ACROSS E NEW ENG
BUT IS A WARMER SOLUTION. ECMWF ALSO QUITE ROBUST WITH 0.50 INCHES
TO WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR AND 1 INCH TO WEST OF THE CAPE COD CANAL AND
A GOOD CHUNK OF THIS FALLS AFTER THE CHANGEOVER WHICH WOULD RESULT
IN A LARGE SWATH OF GREATER THAN 6 INCHES SNOW ACCUM FOR MUCH OF HE
COASTAL PLAIN. 12Z GFS AND NAM ARE ON THE EASTERN
ENVELOPE...CONFINING HEAVY QPF TO CAPE/ISLANDS WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS
BACK TO THE I95 CORRIDOR...BUT 18Z NAM HAS TRENDED EAST AND IS A
SHUTOUT FOR BOS/PVD WITH ONLY LIGHT QPF AFTER CHANGEOVER FOR
CAPE/ISLANDS. VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST SO WE ARE LEANING TOWARD A
BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AS WELL AS ECMWF EPS MEAN. GIVEN
SHARPNESS OF THE UPPER TROF AND STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE EXPECT
THIS TO BACK FLOW ENOUGH TO PUSH HEAVIER QPF ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS AND
POSSIBLY FAR SE MA NEAR THE CANAL BUT MUCH LESS CONFIDENCE
GETTING FURTHER NW.

SNOWFALL...
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF 6 INCHES ACCUM IS THE AREA NEAR THE CAPE COD
CANAL SO WE ISSUED A WATCH FOR FAR SE MA AND CAPE COD...INCLUDING
MARTHAS VINEYARD. SNOW COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES VERY LATE THU NIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING WHICH MAY AFFECT THE MORNING COMMUTE. DESPITE MORE
QPF FOR NANTUCKET...WE EXPECT LESS SNOWFALL THERE DUE TO LATER
TIMING OF CHANGEOVER AND MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH WILL LEAD TO
SOME MELTING. OBVIOUSLY WITH SHARP MOISTURE/QPF GRADIENT ON THE NW
FRINGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD THERE IS BIG BUST POTENTIAL. FURTHER
EAST AND ITS JUST MINOR ACCUM FOR CAPE COD...BUT FURTHER WEST AND
HEAVY SNOW COULD EXTEND BACK ACROSS BOS/PVD WITH MORE RAIN FOR THE
CAPE/ISLANDS. OUR PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL MAPS AND BEST/WORST CASE
SCENARIOS TRY TO COMMUNICATE THE EXPECTED RANGE OF EXPECTATIONS.
WATCH WAS BASED ON A 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF 6 INCHES WITH
LIKELIHOOD OF AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW FOR THIS AREA.
INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THERE ARE MANY ECMWF EPS MEMBERS WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL BACK ACROSS COASTAL PLAIN. THIS MAY BE TOO
AGGRESSIVE...BUT 51 MEMBER ECMWF EPS HAS 50 PERCENT PROBS FOR 6
INCHES SE MA AND 90 PERCENT FOR 3 INCHES.

IMPACTS...
THIS WILL BE A WET SNOW AND IF HEAVY SNOW MATERIALIZES THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR POWER OUTAGES DUE TO ACCUMULATION ON TREES AND POWER
LINES.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER REGION SAT WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
CLIPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL SWING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUN...BUT BEST DYNAMICS/MOISTURE REMAIN
FAR ENOUGH TO OUR N THAT WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY. HOWEVER FRONT WILL
BRING COLDER AIRMASS INTO REGION BY SUN NIGHT WHICH SETS STAGE FOR
POTENTIALLY STORMY WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH HANDLING OF TWO SHORTWAVES
CURRENTLY OVER PACIFIC...WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED UNTIL THU OR FRI
WHEN THESE FEATURES BECOME BETTER SAMPLED. SO EXPECT TO SEE WOBBLES
OR EVEN WILD SWINGS IN THESE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS UNTIL THEN.

12Z ECMWF NOW PUTS MORE EMPHASIS ON FIRST SHORT WAVE...WHICH RESULTS
IN COASTAL LOW AFFECTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MON BUT IS MORE OF A
GLANCING BLOW DUE TO A MORE OFFSHORE TRACK. 12Z GFS PUTS MORE FOCUS
ON SECOND SHORT WAVE AND AS A RESULT ITS COASTAL LOW HAS MORE OF AN
IMPACT ON SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUE. DUE TO WIDE VARIATIONS IN THESE
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS...WE ARE BASING FORECAST MORE ON ENSEMBLES
AND WILL UTILIZE CONSENSUS BLEND TO WORK OUT DETAILS FOR NOW.

THIS RESULTS IN SNOW MOVING INTO REGION LATER MON INTO TUE...BUT
DESPITE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WE WILL PROBABLY BE DEALING WITH
WARMTH IN BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH WILL GIVE US ISSUES WITH RAIN/SNOW
MIX OR EVEN RAIN...PRIMARILY FROM PROVIDENCE AND BOSTON TO CAPE COD
AND ISLANDS. SETUP RIGHT NOW FAVORS HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS
INTERIOR...BUT AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND THERE COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST IN COMING DAYS.

FOR NOW...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE BUT WE NEED TO SEE HOW THESE TWO
SHORT WAVES EVOLVE AS THEY ENTER WEST COAST AND WORK THEIR WAY
ACROSS COUNTRY.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
AGAIN MODEL SPREAD IS HIGH AT THIS TIME RANGE GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN
HOW MON/TUE EVOLVES. BUT WE DO EXPECT TO SEE DRYING IN WAKE OF
SYSTEM WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH RAIN SLOWLY
DIMINISHING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. RAIN WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND
ISLANDS. WILL SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
TERMINALS TOWARDS 12Z. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD TSRA ALONG THE SOUTH
COASTS OF RI/MA CONTINUES. AREAS OF LLWS ACROSS SNE THIS
EVENING...SHIFTING TO SE NEW ENG OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY...QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA THROUGH 15Z THOUGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF WINDS/PRECIP.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF WINDS/PRECIP.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR/LIFR DEVELOPING SE
NEW ENG AND CAPE/ISLANDS WITH RAIN CHANGING TO ACCUMULATING SNOW
LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...IMPROVING FRI AFTERNOON. MAINLY
VFR FURTHER INTO THE INTERIOR. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE TRANSITION
FROM IFR TO VFR OCCURS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN OR SNOW...ESPECIALLY LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT.  HAVE UPGRADED THE
SOUTHERN INNER WATERS TO GALE WARNINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT.  SEAS INCREASE TO 6 TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SEAS DIMINISH SLOWLY...ESPECIALLY ON
THE EASTERN WATERS WHERE THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLIER.  THE
COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS WHICH WILL SLOW THE
DIMINISHING OF THE SEAS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE FOR SEAS ON MOST OF THE OUTER WATERS.  SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON...REMAINING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...

THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...INCREASING N WINDS LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE OVER S WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED IN
RAIN...WHICH WILL CHANGE TO SNOW LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI MORNING.

SAT INTO SUN...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA.

MON...CONFIDENCE IS LOW BUT EXPECT INCREASING N/NE WINDS AHEAD OF
COASTAL LOW. SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH 25-30KT GUSTS AND SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 FT OR HIGHER ON OUTER WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR FEB 4TH...

BOS...64/1991
BDL...64/1991
PVD...66/1991
ORH...61/1991

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ018>023.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ231-232-255-256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ233>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ230.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC/JWD
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 040142
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
842 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE COAST
THURSDAY...THEN LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST
THU NIGHT AND TRACK ALONG THE FRONT PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF
NANTUCKET FRIDAY. THIS STORM WILL LIKELY BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO
SOUTHEAST NEW ENG LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGS DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. A COASTAL STORM SHOULD AFFECT
THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

9 PM UPDATE...

LLJ CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
STRONG GUSTS TO MIX DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IN FACT SOME
LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING OVER 35-40 MPH GUSTS. HIGHER GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL MASS AS THEY
HAVE THE BETTER POTENTIAL TO TAP INTO THE LLJ. THESE GUSTS
COMBINED WITH A SOGGY GROUND MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES
AND DOWN TREE LIMBS.

7 PM UPDATE...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS SNE THIS EVENING ASSOCD WITH STRONG
WARM ADVECTION AND ENHANCED BY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. MODELS INDICATING SOME DRYING ALOFT
MOVING INTO WESTERN NEW ENG THIS EVENING WHICH WILL RESULT IN RAIN
DECREASING WHILE ACTIVITY BECOMES FOCUSED ACROSS SE NEW ENG ALONG
THE AXIS OF THE SLOW MOVING LOW LEVEL JET. ADJUSTED POPS TO
REFLECT THIS THINKING. WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED TO THE N OF THE
REGION AS TEMPS HAVE SOARED INTO AND THROUGH THE 50S. WILL LIKELY
SEE TEMPS REACH 60 DEGREES IN THE COASTAL PLAIN OVERNIGHT. COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO W NEW ENG LATE TONIGHT WITH TEMPS COOLING INTO
THE 40S HERE TOWARD DAYBREAK...BUT REMAINING IN THE 50S ELSEWHERE.

AXIS OF LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE TO E NEW ENG THIS EVENING THEN
ACROSS SE NEW ENG COAST OVERNIGHT. STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN
PLACE WHICH WILL LIMIT STRONGER GUSTS FROM REACHING THE SURFACE.
FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECTING WINDS TO GUST UP TO 30-40 MPH WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS SHIFTING TO THE CAPE/ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. IF
ANY HEAVIER RAIN OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO TAP INTO
THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...WE MAY SEE A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN AND
AROUND THOSE STORMS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT STALLS OFF THE SOUTH COAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP SOME SHOWERS ON THE SOUTH COAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.  THE BIG STORY FOR THURSDAY WILL BE THE
TEMPERATURES.  AFTER STARTING OUT WITH MINS WARMER THAN OUR NORMAL
MAXES...TEMPS WILL CLIMB QUICKLY THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE 50S TO
EVEN AROUND 60 ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.  AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO COOL BACK
INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* RAIN CHANGING TO ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
  ACROSS SE NEW ENG
* DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND
* ANOTHER COASTAL STORM MAY AFFECT THE REGION SOMETIME MONDAY OR
  TUESDAY

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
** WINTER STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR FAR SE MA AND CAPE COD AND MARTHAS
  VINEYARD ***

DIFFICULT FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO
SNOW AND POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR THE COAST LATE THU NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. MODELS ALL SHOW A SHARP MID LEVEL TROF AXIS BACK TO THE
WEST WITH RATHER POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
TROF AND LIFTING NE OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. THIS WILL INDUCE A
FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE
COAST AND TRACKING SE OF THE BENCHMARK FRIDAY. THE DIFFICULTY WITH
THE FORECAST INVOLVES THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF SIGNIFICANT QPF MOVING
INTO SNE AND TIMING OF CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW AS THE COLUMN
COOLS FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL TROF.
ALSO THERE IS A SHARP QPF GRADIENT ON THE NW FRINGE OF THE PRECIP
FIELD WHICH ADDS TO THE UNCERTAINTY.

TIMING OF CHANGEOVER...
PRECIP COMES IN AS RAIN ALONG THE COAST THU EVENING. MODELS ARE IN
REASONABLE GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF CHANGEOVER WITHIN A FEW HOURS
WITH ECMWF LATER THAN NAM/GFS BUT IT IS ALSO HEAVIER WITH QPF. WE
USED A BLEND OF PARTIAL THICKNESS DATA WHICH SUGGESTS CHANGEOVER 06-
09Z SE MA/RI AND 09-12Z CAPE/ISLANDS.

QPF...
UKMET IS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE AND BRINGS
SIGNIFICANT QPF INTO SNE WITH AMOUNTS 1-2 INCHES ACROSS E NEW ENG
BUT IS A WARMER SOLUTION. ECMWF ALSO QUITE ROBUST WITH 0.50 INCHES
TO WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR AND 1 INCH TO WEST OF THE CAPE COD CANAL AND
A GOOD CHUNK OF THIS FALLS AFTER THE CHANGEOVER WHICH WOULD RESULT
IN A LARGE SWATH OF GREATER THAN 6 INCHES SNOW ACCUM FOR MUCH OF HE
COASTAL PLAIN. 12Z GFS AND NAM ARE ON THE EASTERN
ENVELOPE...CONFINING HEAVY QPF TO CAPE/ISLANDS WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS
BACK TO THE I95 CORRIDOR...BUT 18Z NAM HAS TRENDED EAST AND IS A
SHUTOUT FOR BOS/PVD WITH ONLY LIGHT QPF AFTER CHANGEOVER FOR
CAPE/ISLANDS. VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST SO WE ARE LEANING TOWARD A
BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AS WELL AS ECMWF EPS MEAN. GIVEN
SHARPNESS OF THE UPPER TROF AND STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE EXPECT
THIS TO BACK FLOW ENOUGH TO PUSH HEAVIER QPF ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS AND
POSSIBLY FAR SE MA NEAR THE CANAL BUT MUCH LESS CONFIDENCE
GETTING FURTHER NW.

SNOWFALL...
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF 6 INCHES ACCUM IS THE AREA NEAR THE CAPE COD
CANAL SO WE ISSUED A WATCH FOR FAR SE MA AND CAPE COD...INCLUDING
MARTHAS VINEYARD. SNOW COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES VERY LATE THU NIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING WHICH MAY AFFECT THE MORNING COMMUTE. DESPITE MORE
QPF FOR NANTUCKET...WE EXPECT LESS SNOWFALL THERE DUE TO LATER
TIMING OF CHANGEOVER AND MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH WILL LEAD TO
SOME MELTING. OBVIOUSLY WITH SHARP MOISTURE/QPF GRADIENT ON THE NW
FRINGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD THERE IS BIG BUST POTENTIAL. FURTHER
EAST AND ITS JUST MINOR ACCUM FOR CAPE COD...BUT FURTHER WEST AND
HEAVY SNOW COULD EXTEND BACK ACROSS BOS/PVD WITH MORE RAIN FOR THE
CAPE/ISLANDS. OUR PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL MAPS AND BEST/WORST CASE
SCENARIOS TRY TO COMMUNICATE THE EXPECTED RANGE OF EXPECTATIONS.
WATCH WAS BASED ON A 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF 6 INCHES WITH
LIKELIHOOD OF AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW FOR THIS AREA.
INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THERE ARE MANY ECMWF EPS MEMBERS WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL BACK ACROSS COASTAL PLAIN. THIS MAY BE TOO
AGGRESSIVE...BUT 51 MEMBER ECMWF EPS HAS 50 PERCENT PROBS FOR 6
INCHES SE MA AND 90 PERCENT FOR 3 INCHES.

IMPACTS...
THIS WILL BE A WET SNOW AND IF HEAVY SNOW MATERIALIZES THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR POWER OUTAGES DUE TO ACCUMULATION ON TREES AND POWER
LINES.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER REGION SAT WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
CLIPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL SWING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUN...BUT BEST DYNAMICS/MOISTURE REMAIN
FAR ENOUGH TO OUR N THAT WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY. HOWEVER FRONT WILL
BRING COLDER AIRMASS INTO REGION BY SUN NIGHT WHICH SETS STAGE FOR
POTENTIALLY STORMY WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH HANDLING OF TWO SHORTWAVES
CURRENTLY OVER PACIFIC...WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED UNTIL THU OR FRI
WHEN THESE FEATURES BECOME BETTER SAMPLED. SO EXPECT TO SEE WOBBLES
OR EVEN WILD SWINGS IN THESE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS UNTIL THEN.

12Z ECMWF NOW PUTS MORE EMPHASIS ON FIRST SHORT WAVE...WHICH RESULTS
IN COASTAL LOW AFFECTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MON BUT IS MORE OF A
GLANCING BLOW DUE TO A MORE OFFSHORE TRACK. 12Z GFS PUTS MORE FOCUS
ON SECOND SHORT WAVE AND AS A RESULT ITS COASTAL LOW HAS MORE OF AN
IMPACT ON SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUE. DUE TO WIDE VARIATIONS IN THESE
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS...WE ARE BASING FORECAST MORE ON ENSEMBLES
AND WILL UTILIZE CONSENSUS BLEND TO WORK OUT DETAILS FOR NOW.

THIS RESULTS IN SNOW MOVING INTO REGION LATER MON INTO TUE...BUT
DESPITE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WE WILL PROBABLY BE DEALING WITH
WARMTH IN BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH WILL GIVE US ISSUES WITH RAIN/SNOW
MIX OR EVEN RAIN...PRIMARILY FROM PROVIDENCE AND BOSTON TO CAPE COD
AND ISLANDS. SETUP RIGHT NOW FAVORS HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS
INTERIOR...BUT AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND THERE COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST IN COMING DAYS.

FOR NOW...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE BUT WE NEED TO SEE HOW THESE TWO
SHORT WAVES EVOLVE AS THEY ENTER WEST COAST AND WORK THEIR WAY
ACROSS COUNTRY.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
AGAIN MODEL SPREAD IS HIGH AT THIS TIME RANGE GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN
HOW MON/TUE EVOLVES. BUT WE DO EXPECT TO SEE DRYING IN WAKE OF
SYSTEM WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH RAIN SLOWLY
DIMINISHING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. RAIN WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND
ISLANDS. WILL SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
TERMINALS TOWARDS 12Z. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD TSRA ALONG THE SOUTH
COASTS OF RI/MA CONTINUES. AREAS OF LLWS ACROSS SNE THIS
EVENING...SHIFTING TO SE NEW ENG OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY...QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA THROUGH 15Z THOUGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF WINDS/PRECIP.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF WINDS/PRECIP.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR/LIFR DEVELOPING SE
NEW ENG AND CAPE/ISLANDS WITH RAIN CHANGING TO ACCUMULATING SNOW
LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...IMPROVING FRI AFTERNOON. MAINLY
VFR FURTHER INTO THE INTERIOR. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE TRANSITION
FROM IFR TO VFR OCCURS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN OR SNOW...ESPECIALLY LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT.  HAVE UPGRADED THE
SOUTHERN INNER WATERS TO GALE WARNINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT.  SEAS INCREASE TO 6 TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SEAS DIMINISH SLOWLY...ESPECIALLY ON
THE EASTERN WATERS WHERE THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLIER.  THE
COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS WHICH WILL SLOW THE
DIMINISHING OF THE SEAS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE FOR SEAS ON MOST OF THE OUTER WATERS.  SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON...REMAINING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...

THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...INCREASING N WINDS LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE OVER S WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED IN
RAIN...WHICH WILL CHANGE TO SNOW LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI MORNING.

SAT INTO SUN...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA.

MON...CONFIDENCE IS LOW BUT EXPECT INCREASING N/NE WINDS AHEAD OF
COASTAL LOW. SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH 25-30KT GUSTS AND SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 FT OR HIGHER ON OUTER WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR FEB 4TH...

BOS...64/1991
BDL...64/1991
PVD...66/1991
ORH...61/1991

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ018>023.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ231-232-255-256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ233>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ230.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC/JWD
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 040008
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
708 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE COAST
THURSDAY...THEN LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST
THU NIGHT AND TRACK ALONG THE FRONT PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF
NANTUCKET FRIDAY. THIS STORM WILL LIKELY BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO
SOUTHEAST NEW ENG LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGS DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. A COASTAL STORM SHOULD AFFECT
THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS SNE THIS EVENING ASSOCD WITH STRONG
WARM ADVECTION AND ENHANCED BY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. MODELS INDICATING SOME DRYING ALOFT
MOVING INTO WESTERN NEW ENG THIS EVENING WHICH WILL RESULT IN RAIN
DECREASING WHILE ACTIVITY BECOMES FOCUSED ACROSS SE NEW ENG ALONG
THE AXIS OF THE SLOW MOVING LOW LEVEL JET. ADJUSTED POPS TO
REFLECT THIS THINKING. WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED TO THE N OF THE
REGION AS TEMPS HAVE SOARED INTO AND THROUGH THE 50S. WILL LIKELY
SEE TEMPS REACH 60 DEGREES IN THE COASTAL PLAIN OVERNIGHT. COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO W NEW ENG LATE TONIGHT WITH TEMPS COOLING INTO
THE 40S HERE TOWARD DAYBREAK...BUT REMAINING IN THE 50S ELSEWHERE.

AXIS OF LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE TO E NEW ENG THIS EVENING THEN
ACROSS SE NEW ENG COAST OVERNIGHT. STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN
PLACE WHICH WILL LIMIT STRONGER GUSTS FROM REACHING THE SURFACE.
FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECTING WINDS TO GUST UP TO 30-40 MPH WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS SHIFTING TO THE CAPE/ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. IF
ANY HEAVIER RAIN OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO TAP INTO
THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...WE MAY SEE A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN AND
AROUND THOSE STORMS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT STALLS OFF THE SOUTH COAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP SOME SHOWERS ON THE SOUTH COAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.  THE BIG STORY FOR THURSDAY WILL BE THE
TEMPERATURES.  AFTER STARTING OUT WITH MINS WARMER THAN OUR NORMAL
MAXES...TEMPS WILL CLIMB QUICKLY THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE 50S TO
EVEN AROUND 60 ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.  AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO COOL BACK
INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* RAIN CHANGING TO ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
  ACROSS SE NEW ENG
* DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND
* ANOTHER COASTAL STORM MAY AFFECT THE REGION SOMETIME MONDAY OR
  TUESDAY

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
** WINTER STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR FAR SE MA AND CAPE COD AND MARTHAS
  VINEYARD ***

DIFFICULT FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO
SNOW AND POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR THE COAST LATE THU NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. MODELS ALL SHOW A SHARP MID LEVEL TROF AXIS BACK TO THE
WEST WITH RATHER POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
TROF AND LIFTING NE OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. THIS WILL INDUCE A
FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE
COAST AND TRACKING SE OF THE BENCHMARK FRIDAY. THE DIFFICULTY WITH
THE FORECAST INVOLVES THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF SIGNIFICANT QPF MOVING
INTO SNE AND TIMING OF CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW AS THE COLUMN
COOLS FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL TROF.
ALSO THERE IS A SHARP QPF GRADIENT ON THE NW FRINGE OF THE PRECIP
FIELD WHICH ADDS TO THE UNCERTAINTY.

TIMING OF CHANGEOVER...
PRECIP COMES IN AS RAIN ALONG THE COAST THU EVENING. MODELS ARE IN
REASONABLE GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF CHANGEOVER WITHIN A FEW HOURS
WITH ECMWF LATER THAN NAM/GFS BUT IT IS ALSO HEAVIER WITH QPF. WE
USED A BLEND OF PARTIAL THICKNESS DATA WHICH SUGGESTS CHANGEOVER 06-
09Z SE MA/RI AND 09-12Z CAPE/ISLANDS.

QPF...
UKMET IS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE AND BRINGS
SIGNIFICANT QPF INTO SNE WITH AMOUNTS 1-2 INCHES ACROSS E NEW ENG
BUT IS A WARMER SOLUTION. ECMWF ALSO QUITE ROBUST WITH 0.50 INCHES
TO WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR AND 1 INCH TO WEST OF THE CAPE COD CANAL AND
A GOOD CHUNK OF THIS FALLS AFTER THE CHANGEOVER WHICH WOULD RESULT
IN A LARGE SWATH OF GREATER THAN 6 INCHES SNOW ACCUM FOR MUCH OF HE
COASTAL PLAIN. 12Z GFS AND NAM ARE ON THE EASTERN
ENVELOPE...CONFINING HEAVY QPF TO CAPE/ISLANDS WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS
BACK TO THE I95 CORRIDOR...BUT 18Z NAM HAS TRENDED EAST AND IS A
SHUTOUT FOR BOS/PVD WITH ONLY LIGHT QPF AFTER CHANGEOVER FOR
CAPE/ISLANDS. VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST SO WE ARE LEANING TOWARD A
BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AS WELL AS ECMWF EPS MEAN. GIVEN
SHARPNESS OF THE UPPER TROF AND STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE EXPECT
THIS TO BACK FLOW ENOUGH TO PUSH HEAVIER QPF ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS AND
POSSIBLY FAR SE MA NEAR THE CANAL BUT MUCH LESS CONFIDENCE
GETTING FURTHER NW.

SNOWFALL...
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF 6 INCHES ACCUM IS THE AREA NEAR THE CAPE COD
CANAL SO WE ISSUED A WATCH FOR FAR SE MA AND CAPE COD...INCLUDING
MARTHAS VINEYARD. SNOW COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES VERY LATE THU NIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING WHICH MAY AFFECT THE MORNING COMMUTE. DESPITE MORE
QPF FOR NANTUCKET...WE EXPECT LESS SNOWFALL THERE DUE TO LATER
TIMING OF CHANGEOVER AND MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH WILL LEAD TO
SOME MELTING. OBVIOUSLY WITH SHARP MOISTURE/QPF GRADIENT ON THE NW
FRINGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD THERE IS BIG BUST POTENTIAL. FURTHER
EAST AND ITS JUST MINOR ACCUM FOR CAPE COD...BUT FURTHER WEST AND
HEAVY SNOW COULD EXTEND BACK ACROSS BOS/PVD WITH MORE RAIN FOR THE
CAPE/ISLANDS. OUR PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL MAPS AND BEST/WORST CASE
SCENARIOS TRY TO COMMUNICATE THE EXPECTED RANGE OF EXPECTATIONS.
WATCH WAS BASED ON A 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF 6 INCHES WITH
LIKELIHOOD OF AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW FOR THIS AREA.
INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THERE ARE MANY ECMWF EPS MEMBERS WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL BACK ACROSS COASTAL PLAIN. THIS MAY BE TOO
AGGRESSIVE...BUT 51 MEMBER ECMWF EPS HAS 50 PERCENT PROBS FOR 6
INCHES SE MA AND 90 PERCENT FOR 3 INCHES.

IMPACTS...
THIS WILL BE A WET SNOW AND IF HEAVY SNOW MATERIALIZES THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR POWER OUTAGES DUE TO ACCUMULATION ON TREES AND POWER
LINES.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER REGION SAT WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
CLIPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL SWING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUN...BUT BEST DYNAMICS/MOISTURE REMAIN
FAR ENOUGH TO OUR N THAT WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY. HOWEVER FRONT WILL
BRING COLDER AIRMASS INTO REGION BY SUN NIGHT WHICH SETS STAGE FOR
POTENTIALLY STORMY WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH HANDLING OF TWO SHORTWAVES
CURRENTLY OVER PACIFIC...WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED UNTIL THU OR FRI
WHEN THESE FEATURES BECOME BETTER SAMPLED. SO EXPECT TO SEE WOBBLES
OR EVEN WILD SWINGS IN THESE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS UNTIL THEN.

12Z ECMWF NOW PUTS MORE EMPHASIS ON FIRST SHORT WAVE...WHICH RESULTS
IN COASTAL LOW AFFECTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MON BUT IS MORE OF A
GLANCING BLOW DUE TO A MORE OFFSHORE TRACK. 12Z GFS PUTS MORE FOCUS
ON SECOND SHORT WAVE AND AS A RESULT ITS COASTAL LOW HAS MORE OF AN
IMPACT ON SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUE. DUE TO WIDE VARIATIONS IN THESE
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS...WE ARE BASING FORECAST MORE ON ENSEMBLES
AND WILL UTILIZE CONSENSUS BLEND TO WORK OUT DETAILS FOR NOW.

THIS RESULTS IN SNOW MOVING INTO REGION LATER MON INTO TUE...BUT
DESPITE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WE WILL PROBABLY BE DEALING WITH
WARMTH IN BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH WILL GIVE US ISSUES WITH RAIN/SNOW
MIX OR EVEN RAIN...PRIMARILY FROM PROVIDENCE AND BOSTON TO CAPE COD
AND ISLANDS. SETUP RIGHT NOW FAVORS HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS
INTERIOR...BUT AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND THERE COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST IN COMING DAYS.

FOR NOW...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE BUT WE NEED TO SEE HOW THESE TWO
SHORT WAVES EVOLVE AS THEY ENTER WEST COAST AND WORK THEIR WAY
ACROSS COUNTRY.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
AGAIN MODEL SPREAD IS HIGH AT THIS TIME RANGE GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN
HOW MON/TUE EVOLVES. BUT WE DO EXPECT TO SEE DRYING IN WAKE OF
SYSTEM WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH RAIN SLOWLY
DIMINISHING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. RAIN WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND
ISLANDS. WILL SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
TERMINALS TOWARDS 12Z. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD TSRA ALONG THE SOUTH
COASTS OF RI/MA CONTINUES. AREAS OF LLWS ACROSS SNE THIS
EVENING...SHIFTING TO SE NEW ENG OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY...QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA THROUGH 15Z THOUGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF WINDS/PRECIP.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF WINDS/PRECIP.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR/LIFR DEVELOPING SE
NEW ENG AND CAPE/ISLANDS WITH RAIN CHANGING TO ACCUMULATING SNOW
LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...IMPROVING FRI AFTERNOON. MAINLY
VFR FURTHER INTO THE INTERIOR. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE TRANSITION
FROM IFR TO VFR OCCURS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN OR SNOW...ESPECIALLY LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT.  HAVE UPGRADED THE
SOUTHERN INNER WATERS TO GALE WARNINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT.  SEAS INCREASE TO 6 TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SEAS DIMINISH SLOWLY...ESPECIALLY ON
THE EASTERN WATERS WHERE THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLIER.  THE
COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS WHICH WILL SLOW THE
DIMINISHING OF THE SEAS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE FOR SEAS ON MOST OF THE OUTER WATERS.  SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON...REMAINING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...

THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...INCREASING N WINDS LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE OVER S WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED IN
RAIN...WHICH WILL CHANGE TO SNOW LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI MORNING.

SAT INTO SUN...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA.

MON...CONFIDENCE IS LOW BUT EXPECT INCREASING N/NE WINDS AHEAD OF
COASTAL LOW. SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH 25-30KT GUSTS AND SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 FT OR HIGHER ON OUTER WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR FEB 4TH...

BOS...64/1991
BDL...64/1991
PVD...66/1991
ORH...61/1991

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ018>023.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ231-232-255-256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ233>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ230.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC/JWD
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 040008
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
708 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE COAST
THURSDAY...THEN LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST
THU NIGHT AND TRACK ALONG THE FRONT PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF
NANTUCKET FRIDAY. THIS STORM WILL LIKELY BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO
SOUTHEAST NEW ENG LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGS DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. A COASTAL STORM SHOULD AFFECT
THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS SNE THIS EVENING ASSOCD WITH STRONG
WARM ADVECTION AND ENHANCED BY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. MODELS INDICATING SOME DRYING ALOFT
MOVING INTO WESTERN NEW ENG THIS EVENING WHICH WILL RESULT IN RAIN
DECREASING WHILE ACTIVITY BECOMES FOCUSED ACROSS SE NEW ENG ALONG
THE AXIS OF THE SLOW MOVING LOW LEVEL JET. ADJUSTED POPS TO
REFLECT THIS THINKING. WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED TO THE N OF THE
REGION AS TEMPS HAVE SOARED INTO AND THROUGH THE 50S. WILL LIKELY
SEE TEMPS REACH 60 DEGREES IN THE COASTAL PLAIN OVERNIGHT. COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO W NEW ENG LATE TONIGHT WITH TEMPS COOLING INTO
THE 40S HERE TOWARD DAYBREAK...BUT REMAINING IN THE 50S ELSEWHERE.

AXIS OF LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE TO E NEW ENG THIS EVENING THEN
ACROSS SE NEW ENG COAST OVERNIGHT. STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN
PLACE WHICH WILL LIMIT STRONGER GUSTS FROM REACHING THE SURFACE.
FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECTING WINDS TO GUST UP TO 30-40 MPH WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS SHIFTING TO THE CAPE/ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. IF
ANY HEAVIER RAIN OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO TAP INTO
THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...WE MAY SEE A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN AND
AROUND THOSE STORMS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT STALLS OFF THE SOUTH COAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP SOME SHOWERS ON THE SOUTH COAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.  THE BIG STORY FOR THURSDAY WILL BE THE
TEMPERATURES.  AFTER STARTING OUT WITH MINS WARMER THAN OUR NORMAL
MAXES...TEMPS WILL CLIMB QUICKLY THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE 50S TO
EVEN AROUND 60 ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.  AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO COOL BACK
INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* RAIN CHANGING TO ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
  ACROSS SE NEW ENG
* DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND
* ANOTHER COASTAL STORM MAY AFFECT THE REGION SOMETIME MONDAY OR
  TUESDAY

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
** WINTER STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR FAR SE MA AND CAPE COD AND MARTHAS
  VINEYARD ***

DIFFICULT FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO
SNOW AND POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR THE COAST LATE THU NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. MODELS ALL SHOW A SHARP MID LEVEL TROF AXIS BACK TO THE
WEST WITH RATHER POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
TROF AND LIFTING NE OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. THIS WILL INDUCE A
FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE
COAST AND TRACKING SE OF THE BENCHMARK FRIDAY. THE DIFFICULTY WITH
THE FORECAST INVOLVES THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF SIGNIFICANT QPF MOVING
INTO SNE AND TIMING OF CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW AS THE COLUMN
COOLS FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL TROF.
ALSO THERE IS A SHARP QPF GRADIENT ON THE NW FRINGE OF THE PRECIP
FIELD WHICH ADDS TO THE UNCERTAINTY.

TIMING OF CHANGEOVER...
PRECIP COMES IN AS RAIN ALONG THE COAST THU EVENING. MODELS ARE IN
REASONABLE GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF CHANGEOVER WITHIN A FEW HOURS
WITH ECMWF LATER THAN NAM/GFS BUT IT IS ALSO HEAVIER WITH QPF. WE
USED A BLEND OF PARTIAL THICKNESS DATA WHICH SUGGESTS CHANGEOVER 06-
09Z SE MA/RI AND 09-12Z CAPE/ISLANDS.

QPF...
UKMET IS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE AND BRINGS
SIGNIFICANT QPF INTO SNE WITH AMOUNTS 1-2 INCHES ACROSS E NEW ENG
BUT IS A WARMER SOLUTION. ECMWF ALSO QUITE ROBUST WITH 0.50 INCHES
TO WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR AND 1 INCH TO WEST OF THE CAPE COD CANAL AND
A GOOD CHUNK OF THIS FALLS AFTER THE CHANGEOVER WHICH WOULD RESULT
IN A LARGE SWATH OF GREATER THAN 6 INCHES SNOW ACCUM FOR MUCH OF HE
COASTAL PLAIN. 12Z GFS AND NAM ARE ON THE EASTERN
ENVELOPE...CONFINING HEAVY QPF TO CAPE/ISLANDS WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS
BACK TO THE I95 CORRIDOR...BUT 18Z NAM HAS TRENDED EAST AND IS A
SHUTOUT FOR BOS/PVD WITH ONLY LIGHT QPF AFTER CHANGEOVER FOR
CAPE/ISLANDS. VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST SO WE ARE LEANING TOWARD A
BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AS WELL AS ECMWF EPS MEAN. GIVEN
SHARPNESS OF THE UPPER TROF AND STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE EXPECT
THIS TO BACK FLOW ENOUGH TO PUSH HEAVIER QPF ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS AND
POSSIBLY FAR SE MA NEAR THE CANAL BUT MUCH LESS CONFIDENCE
GETTING FURTHER NW.

SNOWFALL...
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF 6 INCHES ACCUM IS THE AREA NEAR THE CAPE COD
CANAL SO WE ISSUED A WATCH FOR FAR SE MA AND CAPE COD...INCLUDING
MARTHAS VINEYARD. SNOW COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES VERY LATE THU NIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING WHICH MAY AFFECT THE MORNING COMMUTE. DESPITE MORE
QPF FOR NANTUCKET...WE EXPECT LESS SNOWFALL THERE DUE TO LATER
TIMING OF CHANGEOVER AND MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH WILL LEAD TO
SOME MELTING. OBVIOUSLY WITH SHARP MOISTURE/QPF GRADIENT ON THE NW
FRINGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD THERE IS BIG BUST POTENTIAL. FURTHER
EAST AND ITS JUST MINOR ACCUM FOR CAPE COD...BUT FURTHER WEST AND
HEAVY SNOW COULD EXTEND BACK ACROSS BOS/PVD WITH MORE RAIN FOR THE
CAPE/ISLANDS. OUR PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL MAPS AND BEST/WORST CASE
SCENARIOS TRY TO COMMUNICATE THE EXPECTED RANGE OF EXPECTATIONS.
WATCH WAS BASED ON A 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF 6 INCHES WITH
LIKELIHOOD OF AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW FOR THIS AREA.
INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THERE ARE MANY ECMWF EPS MEMBERS WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL BACK ACROSS COASTAL PLAIN. THIS MAY BE TOO
AGGRESSIVE...BUT 51 MEMBER ECMWF EPS HAS 50 PERCENT PROBS FOR 6
INCHES SE MA AND 90 PERCENT FOR 3 INCHES.

IMPACTS...
THIS WILL BE A WET SNOW AND IF HEAVY SNOW MATERIALIZES THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR POWER OUTAGES DUE TO ACCUMULATION ON TREES AND POWER
LINES.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER REGION SAT WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
CLIPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL SWING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUN...BUT BEST DYNAMICS/MOISTURE REMAIN
FAR ENOUGH TO OUR N THAT WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY. HOWEVER FRONT WILL
BRING COLDER AIRMASS INTO REGION BY SUN NIGHT WHICH SETS STAGE FOR
POTENTIALLY STORMY WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH HANDLING OF TWO SHORTWAVES
CURRENTLY OVER PACIFIC...WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED UNTIL THU OR FRI
WHEN THESE FEATURES BECOME BETTER SAMPLED. SO EXPECT TO SEE WOBBLES
OR EVEN WILD SWINGS IN THESE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS UNTIL THEN.

12Z ECMWF NOW PUTS MORE EMPHASIS ON FIRST SHORT WAVE...WHICH RESULTS
IN COASTAL LOW AFFECTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MON BUT IS MORE OF A
GLANCING BLOW DUE TO A MORE OFFSHORE TRACK. 12Z GFS PUTS MORE FOCUS
ON SECOND SHORT WAVE AND AS A RESULT ITS COASTAL LOW HAS MORE OF AN
IMPACT ON SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUE. DUE TO WIDE VARIATIONS IN THESE
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS...WE ARE BASING FORECAST MORE ON ENSEMBLES
AND WILL UTILIZE CONSENSUS BLEND TO WORK OUT DETAILS FOR NOW.

THIS RESULTS IN SNOW MOVING INTO REGION LATER MON INTO TUE...BUT
DESPITE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WE WILL PROBABLY BE DEALING WITH
WARMTH IN BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH WILL GIVE US ISSUES WITH RAIN/SNOW
MIX OR EVEN RAIN...PRIMARILY FROM PROVIDENCE AND BOSTON TO CAPE COD
AND ISLANDS. SETUP RIGHT NOW FAVORS HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS
INTERIOR...BUT AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND THERE COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST IN COMING DAYS.

FOR NOW...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE BUT WE NEED TO SEE HOW THESE TWO
SHORT WAVES EVOLVE AS THEY ENTER WEST COAST AND WORK THEIR WAY
ACROSS COUNTRY.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
AGAIN MODEL SPREAD IS HIGH AT THIS TIME RANGE GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN
HOW MON/TUE EVOLVES. BUT WE DO EXPECT TO SEE DRYING IN WAKE OF
SYSTEM WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH RAIN SLOWLY
DIMINISHING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. RAIN WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND
ISLANDS. WILL SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
TERMINALS TOWARDS 12Z. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD TSRA ALONG THE SOUTH
COASTS OF RI/MA CONTINUES. AREAS OF LLWS ACROSS SNE THIS
EVENING...SHIFTING TO SE NEW ENG OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY...QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA THROUGH 15Z THOUGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF WINDS/PRECIP.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF WINDS/PRECIP.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR/LIFR DEVELOPING SE
NEW ENG AND CAPE/ISLANDS WITH RAIN CHANGING TO ACCUMULATING SNOW
LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...IMPROVING FRI AFTERNOON. MAINLY
VFR FURTHER INTO THE INTERIOR. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE TRANSITION
FROM IFR TO VFR OCCURS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN OR SNOW...ESPECIALLY LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT.  HAVE UPGRADED THE
SOUTHERN INNER WATERS TO GALE WARNINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT.  SEAS INCREASE TO 6 TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SEAS DIMINISH SLOWLY...ESPECIALLY ON
THE EASTERN WATERS WHERE THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLIER.  THE
COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS WHICH WILL SLOW THE
DIMINISHING OF THE SEAS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE FOR SEAS ON MOST OF THE OUTER WATERS.  SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON...REMAINING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...

THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...INCREASING N WINDS LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE OVER S WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED IN
RAIN...WHICH WILL CHANGE TO SNOW LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI MORNING.

SAT INTO SUN...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA.

MON...CONFIDENCE IS LOW BUT EXPECT INCREASING N/NE WINDS AHEAD OF
COASTAL LOW. SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH 25-30KT GUSTS AND SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 FT OR HIGHER ON OUTER WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR FEB 4TH...

BOS...64/1991
BDL...64/1991
PVD...66/1991
ORH...61/1991

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ018>023.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ231-232-255-256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ233>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ230.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC/JWD
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 040008
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
708 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE COAST
THURSDAY...THEN LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST
THU NIGHT AND TRACK ALONG THE FRONT PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF
NANTUCKET FRIDAY. THIS STORM WILL LIKELY BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO
SOUTHEAST NEW ENG LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGS DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. A COASTAL STORM SHOULD AFFECT
THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS SNE THIS EVENING ASSOCD WITH STRONG
WARM ADVECTION AND ENHANCED BY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. MODELS INDICATING SOME DRYING ALOFT
MOVING INTO WESTERN NEW ENG THIS EVENING WHICH WILL RESULT IN RAIN
DECREASING WHILE ACTIVITY BECOMES FOCUSED ACROSS SE NEW ENG ALONG
THE AXIS OF THE SLOW MOVING LOW LEVEL JET. ADJUSTED POPS TO
REFLECT THIS THINKING. WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED TO THE N OF THE
REGION AS TEMPS HAVE SOARED INTO AND THROUGH THE 50S. WILL LIKELY
SEE TEMPS REACH 60 DEGREES IN THE COASTAL PLAIN OVERNIGHT. COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO W NEW ENG LATE TONIGHT WITH TEMPS COOLING INTO
THE 40S HERE TOWARD DAYBREAK...BUT REMAINING IN THE 50S ELSEWHERE.

AXIS OF LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE TO E NEW ENG THIS EVENING THEN
ACROSS SE NEW ENG COAST OVERNIGHT. STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN
PLACE WHICH WILL LIMIT STRONGER GUSTS FROM REACHING THE SURFACE.
FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECTING WINDS TO GUST UP TO 30-40 MPH WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS SHIFTING TO THE CAPE/ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. IF
ANY HEAVIER RAIN OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO TAP INTO
THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...WE MAY SEE A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN AND
AROUND THOSE STORMS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT STALLS OFF THE SOUTH COAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP SOME SHOWERS ON THE SOUTH COAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.  THE BIG STORY FOR THURSDAY WILL BE THE
TEMPERATURES.  AFTER STARTING OUT WITH MINS WARMER THAN OUR NORMAL
MAXES...TEMPS WILL CLIMB QUICKLY THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE 50S TO
EVEN AROUND 60 ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.  AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO COOL BACK
INTO THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* RAIN CHANGING TO ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
  ACROSS SE NEW ENG
* DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND
* ANOTHER COASTAL STORM MAY AFFECT THE REGION SOMETIME MONDAY OR
  TUESDAY

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
** WINTER STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR FAR SE MA AND CAPE COD AND MARTHAS
  VINEYARD ***

DIFFICULT FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO
SNOW AND POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR THE COAST LATE THU NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. MODELS ALL SHOW A SHARP MID LEVEL TROF AXIS BACK TO THE
WEST WITH RATHER POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
TROF AND LIFTING NE OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. THIS WILL INDUCE A
FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE
COAST AND TRACKING SE OF THE BENCHMARK FRIDAY. THE DIFFICULTY WITH
THE FORECAST INVOLVES THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF SIGNIFICANT QPF MOVING
INTO SNE AND TIMING OF CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW AS THE COLUMN
COOLS FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL TROF.
ALSO THERE IS A SHARP QPF GRADIENT ON THE NW FRINGE OF THE PRECIP
FIELD WHICH ADDS TO THE UNCERTAINTY.

TIMING OF CHANGEOVER...
PRECIP COMES IN AS RAIN ALONG THE COAST THU EVENING. MODELS ARE IN
REASONABLE GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF CHANGEOVER WITHIN A FEW HOURS
WITH ECMWF LATER THAN NAM/GFS BUT IT IS ALSO HEAVIER WITH QPF. WE
USED A BLEND OF PARTIAL THICKNESS DATA WHICH SUGGESTS CHANGEOVER 06-
09Z SE MA/RI AND 09-12Z CAPE/ISLANDS.

QPF...
UKMET IS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE AND BRINGS
SIGNIFICANT QPF INTO SNE WITH AMOUNTS 1-2 INCHES ACROSS E NEW ENG
BUT IS A WARMER SOLUTION. ECMWF ALSO QUITE ROBUST WITH 0.50 INCHES
TO WEST OF I95 CORRIDOR AND 1 INCH TO WEST OF THE CAPE COD CANAL AND
A GOOD CHUNK OF THIS FALLS AFTER THE CHANGEOVER WHICH WOULD RESULT
IN A LARGE SWATH OF GREATER THAN 6 INCHES SNOW ACCUM FOR MUCH OF HE
COASTAL PLAIN. 12Z GFS AND NAM ARE ON THE EASTERN
ENVELOPE...CONFINING HEAVY QPF TO CAPE/ISLANDS WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS
BACK TO THE I95 CORRIDOR...BUT 18Z NAM HAS TRENDED EAST AND IS A
SHUTOUT FOR BOS/PVD WITH ONLY LIGHT QPF AFTER CHANGEOVER FOR
CAPE/ISLANDS. VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST SO WE ARE LEANING TOWARD A
BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AS WELL AS ECMWF EPS MEAN. GIVEN
SHARPNESS OF THE UPPER TROF AND STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE EXPECT
THIS TO BACK FLOW ENOUGH TO PUSH HEAVIER QPF ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS AND
POSSIBLY FAR SE MA NEAR THE CANAL BUT MUCH LESS CONFIDENCE
GETTING FURTHER NW.

SNOWFALL...
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF 6 INCHES ACCUM IS THE AREA NEAR THE CAPE COD
CANAL SO WE ISSUED A WATCH FOR FAR SE MA AND CAPE COD...INCLUDING
MARTHAS VINEYARD. SNOW COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES VERY LATE THU NIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING WHICH MAY AFFECT THE MORNING COMMUTE. DESPITE MORE
QPF FOR NANTUCKET...WE EXPECT LESS SNOWFALL THERE DUE TO LATER
TIMING OF CHANGEOVER AND MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH WILL LEAD TO
SOME MELTING. OBVIOUSLY WITH SHARP MOISTURE/QPF GRADIENT ON THE NW
FRINGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD THERE IS BIG BUST POTENTIAL. FURTHER
EAST AND ITS JUST MINOR ACCUM FOR CAPE COD...BUT FURTHER WEST AND
HEAVY SNOW COULD EXTEND BACK ACROSS BOS/PVD WITH MORE RAIN FOR THE
CAPE/ISLANDS. OUR PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL MAPS AND BEST/WORST CASE
SCENARIOS TRY TO COMMUNICATE THE EXPECTED RANGE OF EXPECTATIONS.
WATCH WAS BASED ON A 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF 6 INCHES WITH
LIKELIHOOD OF AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW FOR THIS AREA.
INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THERE ARE MANY ECMWF EPS MEMBERS WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL BACK ACROSS COASTAL PLAIN. THIS MAY BE TOO
AGGRESSIVE...BUT 51 MEMBER ECMWF EPS HAS 50 PERCENT PROBS FOR 6
INCHES SE MA AND 90 PERCENT FOR 3 INCHES.

IMPACTS...
THIS WILL BE A WET SNOW AND IF HEAVY SNOW MATERIALIZES THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR POWER OUTAGES DUE TO ACCUMULATION ON TREES AND POWER
LINES.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER REGION SAT WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
CLIPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL SWING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUN...BUT BEST DYNAMICS/MOISTURE REMAIN
FAR ENOUGH TO OUR N THAT WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY. HOWEVER FRONT WILL
BRING COLDER AIRMASS INTO REGION BY SUN NIGHT WHICH SETS STAGE FOR
POTENTIALLY STORMY WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH HANDLING OF TWO SHORTWAVES
CURRENTLY OVER PACIFIC...WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED UNTIL THU OR FRI
WHEN THESE FEATURES BECOME BETTER SAMPLED. SO EXPECT TO SEE WOBBLES
OR EVEN WILD SWINGS IN THESE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS UNTIL THEN.

12Z ECMWF NOW PUTS MORE EMPHASIS ON FIRST SHORT WAVE...WHICH RESULTS
IN COASTAL LOW AFFECTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MON BUT IS MORE OF A
GLANCING BLOW DUE TO A MORE OFFSHORE TRACK. 12Z GFS PUTS MORE FOCUS
ON SECOND SHORT WAVE AND AS A RESULT ITS COASTAL LOW HAS MORE OF AN
IMPACT ON SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUE. DUE TO WIDE VARIATIONS IN THESE
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS...WE ARE BASING FORECAST MORE ON ENSEMBLES
AND WILL UTILIZE CONSENSUS BLEND TO WORK OUT DETAILS FOR NOW.

THIS RESULTS IN SNOW MOVING INTO REGION LATER MON INTO TUE...BUT
DESPITE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WE WILL PROBABLY BE DEALING WITH
WARMTH IN BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH WILL GIVE US ISSUES WITH RAIN/SNOW
MIX OR EVEN RAIN...PRIMARILY FROM PROVIDENCE AND BOSTON TO CAPE COD
AND ISLANDS. SETUP RIGHT NOW FAVORS HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS
INTERIOR...BUT AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND THERE COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST IN COMING DAYS.

FOR NOW...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE BUT WE NEED TO SEE HOW THESE TWO
SHORT WAVES EVOLVE AS THEY ENTER WEST COAST AND WORK THEIR WAY
ACROSS COUNTRY.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
AGAIN MODEL SPREAD IS HIGH AT THIS TIME RANGE GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN
HOW MON/TUE EVOLVES. BUT WE DO EXPECT TO SEE DRYING IN WAKE OF
SYSTEM WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH RAIN SLOWLY
DIMINISHING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. RAIN WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE...AND
ISLANDS. WILL SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
TERMINALS TOWARDS 12Z. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD TSRA ALONG THE SOUTH
COASTS OF RI/MA CONTINUES. AREAS OF LLWS ACROSS SNE THIS
EVENING...SHIFTING TO SE NEW ENG OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY...QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA THROUGH 15Z THOUGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF WINDS/PRECIP.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF WINDS/PRECIP.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR/LIFR DEVELOPING SE
NEW ENG AND CAPE/ISLANDS WITH RAIN CHANGING TO ACCUMULATING SNOW
LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...IMPROVING FRI AFTERNOON. MAINLY
VFR FURTHER INTO THE INTERIOR. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE TRANSITION
FROM IFR TO VFR OCCURS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN OR SNOW...ESPECIALLY LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT.  HAVE UPGRADED THE
SOUTHERN INNER WATERS TO GALE WARNINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT.  SEAS INCREASE TO 6 TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SEAS DIMINISH SLOWLY...ESPECIALLY ON
THE EASTERN WATERS WHERE THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLIER.  THE
COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS WHICH WILL SLOW THE
DIMINISHING OF THE SEAS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE FOR SEAS ON MOST OF THE OUTER WATERS.  SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON...REMAINING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...

THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...INCREASING N WINDS LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE OVER S WATERS. VSBYS REDUCED IN
RAIN...WHICH WILL CHANGE TO SNOW LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI MORNING.

SAT INTO SUN...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA.

MON...CONFIDENCE IS LOW BUT EXPECT INCREASING N/NE WINDS AHEAD OF
COASTAL LOW. SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH 25-30KT GUSTS AND SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 FT OR HIGHER ON OUTER WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR FEB 4TH...

BOS...64/1991
BDL...64/1991
PVD...66/1991
ORH...61/1991

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ018>023.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ231-232-255-256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ233>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ230.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC/JWD
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
CLIMATE...




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