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000
FXUS61 KBOX 280707
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
307 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING
TEMPS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. VERY WARM
TO HOT WEATHER WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK BUT A BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
BRING COOLER TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
BEAUTIFUL LATE SUMMER DAY ON TAP AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER NEW ENG
BRINGING SUNSHINE...LIGHT WINDS AND COMFORTABLY WARM TEMPS. CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR DIURNAL CU TO DEVELOP
BUT STILL SHOULD SEE MOSUNNY SKIES. 850 MB TEMPS 11-12C SUPPORT
MAXES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SEABREEZES DEVELOPING
ALONG THE COAST. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S SO VERY
COMFORTABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES OVERHEAD WILL YIELD ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. LEANED TOWARD COOLER MAV/MET GUIDANCE WHICH HAS
MINS IN THE 50S WITH SOME UPPER 40S NW MA...BUT LOWER 60S URBAN
CENTER OF BOS AS WELL AS AREAS ADJACENT TO NARRAGANSETT BAY AND
OUTER CAPE/ACK/BID. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN NORMALLY FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY...
HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE BUT COLUMN REMAINS DRY WITH MOSUNNY
SKIES. WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL RESULT IN MAXES REACHING THE
LOW TO MID 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST...BUT SEABREEZES LIKELY TO
DEVELOP KEEPING TEMPS ALONG THE COAST SLIGHTLY COOLER. STILL
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS
  WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUSLY HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS E ACROSS THE NORTHERN
  TIER DURING THE WORK WEEK

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SEEN WITH THE GENERAL SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. CONTINUE TO NOTE SOME PASSING SHORT WAVES IN THE GENERAL
FLOW MAINLY AROUND THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME...THOUGH TIMING IS
IN QUESTION DUE TO HOW EACH INDIVIDUAL MODELS HANDLES THEM. WITH
HIGH PRES AND SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS ANOMALOUS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CANADA...WILL SEE RETURN TO SUMMER AND TRIPLE H CONDITIONS
FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS MOST AREAS BEGIN THEIR SCHOOL
YEARS.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH ALSO MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC LATE IN THE PERIOD
/WED AND THU/ SO...IN COMBINATION WITH BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC...MAY SEE A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
TRY TO WORK DOWN THE COAST OUT OF MAINE. NOTED THIS FEATURE ON
WEDNESDAY/S OP MODEL RUNS...AND RATHER GOOD CONSISTENCY SEEN ON
TODAY/S RUNS AS WELL ESPECIALLY THIS FAR OUT. HOWEVER...APPEARS
THIS FRONT WASHES OUT QUICKLY...WHILE THE OVERALL HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGING LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DIVERGENCE IN MODEL GUIDANCE WORKS IN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH
TIMING ISSUES AMONGST INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS ON HOW THEY HANDLE
WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING ALONG IN THE UPPER FLOW. DO NOTE THAT THE
H5 CUTOFF PROGRESSIVE LOW HAS FLATTENED OUT ON THE 12Z MODEL
SUITE. HOWEVER...GFS AND NAM BOTH RATHER ROBUST IN BRINGING SOME
PRECIP INTO THE REGION DURING SUN/MON TIMEFRAME...WHILE THE ECMWF
AND GGEM REMAIN MAINLY DRY. WITH STRONG RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE IN
PLACE... STUCK WITH A DRY FORECAST.

AS S-SW WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED...WILL SEE A RETURN OF HIGHER
HUMIDITIES AS WELL AS TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS BOTH
MON AND TUE RUNNING AS MUCH AS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 80S. A FEW SPOTS MAY
SEE READINGS INTO THE LOWER 90S.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NOTING THE 12Z GGEM HAS BECOME AN OUTLIER AS IT TRIES TO BRING TS
ERIKA UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP
A WEAKER VERSION DOWN AROUND THE NORTHERN FLORIDA OR GEORGIA
COAST. THIS WAS SIMILAR TO MODEL ENSEMBLES SO WENT ALONG WITH
THIS.

WILL REMAIN HAZY...HOT AND HUMID ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EXCEPT COOLER ALONG THE S COAST WITH
ONSHORE WINDS. LOOKS TO BE A VERY SULTRY DAY.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MAY SEE BACKDOOR FRONT TRY TO WORK SWWD OUT
OF MAINE DURING THURSDAY. HAVE PUT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THU/THU NIGHT...THOUGH TIMING IS IN QUESTION THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR FOG IN CT VALLEY REGION OF N MA.

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR...LOCALIZED IFR FOG
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT IN INTERIOR VALLEYS. SEABREEZES LIKELY TODAY
AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY BY 17Z
TODAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE PATCHY
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS NORMALLY
PRONE INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WELL AS NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
NW FLOW TODAY BECOMING SW SAT...BUT BECOMING ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND SAT AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES
DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SW WIND GUSTS APPROACH 20 KT SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 280530
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
130 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE AS THE HIGH
STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE. HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR A GOOD PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
130 AM UPDATE...
SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS SNE. EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP
IN THE CT VALLEY REGION OF N MA WHICH MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE.
CHILLY EARLY MORNING WITH MINS IN THE 50S AND SOME UPPER 40S IN W
MA. MILDEST READINGS IN THE LOWER 60S WILL BE CONFINED TO BOS AND
AREAS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FRIDAY...

ANOTHER GEM OF A DAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO NEW ENG WITH
SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD SOME DECORATIVE SCATTERED DIURNAL CU
BUT SHOULD STILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. MAX
TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SEABREEZES DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S...SO REMAINING VERY
COMFORTABLE. ENJOY!

FRI NIGHT...

ANOTHER COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD YIELDING
LIGHT WINDS/MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH A DRY AIRMASS WITH DEW
PTS IN THE 50S. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF MIN TEMPS IN
THE 50S...WITH LOW TO MID 60S IN THE URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE
COAST. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOW LYING
AREAS AND VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS
  WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUSLY HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS E ACROSS THE NORTHERN
  TIER DURING THE WORK WEEK

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SEEN WITH THE GENERAL SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. CONTINUE TO NOTE SOME PASSING SHORT WAVES IN THE GENERAL
FLOW MAINLY AROUND THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME...THOUGH TIMING IS
IN QUESTION DUE TO HOW EACH INDIVIDUAL MODELS HANDLES THEM. WITH
HIGH PRES AND SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS ANOMALOUS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CANADA...WILL SEE RETURN TO SUMMER AND TRIPLE H CONDITIONS
FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS MOST AREAS BEGIN THEIR SCHOOL
YEARS.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH ALSO MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC LATE IN THE PERIOD
/WED AND THU/ SO...IN COMBINATION WITH BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC...MAY SEE A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
TRY TO WORK DOWN THE COAST OUT OF MAINE. NOTED THIS FEATURE ON
WEDNESDAY/S OP MODEL RUNS...AND RATHER GOOD CONSISTENCY SEEN ON
TODAY/S RUNS AS WELL ESPECIALLY THIS FAR OUT. HOWEVER...APPEARS
THIS FRONT WASHES OUT QUICKLY...WHILE THE OVERALL HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGING LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LARGE HIGH PRES ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT TO S-SW DURING THE DAY
AND WILL PICK UP A BIT MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST. WEAK SEA BREEZES
LOOK TO KICK IN ALONG THE E COASTAL BEACHES. TEMPS WILL RISE TO
THE LOWER- MID 80S BUT DEWPTS REMAIN COMFORTABLE AWAY FROM THE
COAST...MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
60S WITH A FEW UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS OF N CENTRAL
AND W MA.

MIGHT SEE SOME LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORMALLY
PRONE INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WELL AS NEAR THE COAST AS DEWPTS SLOWLY
INCREASE.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DIVERGENCE IN MODEL GUIDANCE WORKS IN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH
TIMING ISSUES AMONGST INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS ON HOW THEY HANDLE
WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING ALONG IN THE UPPER FLOW. DO NOTE THAT THE
H5 CUTOFF PROGRESSIVE LOW HAS FLATTENED OUT ON THE 12Z MODEL
SUITE. HOWEVER...GFS AND NAM BOTH RATHER ROBUST IN BRINGING SOME
PRECIP INTO THE REGION DURING SUN/MON TIMEFRAME...WHILE THE ECMWF
AND GGEM REMAIN MAINLY DRY. WITH STRONG RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE IN
PLACE... STUCK WITH A DRY FORECAST.

AS S-SW WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED...WILL SEE A RETURN OF HIGHER
HUMIDITIES AS WELL AS TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS BOTH
MON AND TUE RUNNING AS MUCH AS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 80S. A FEW SPOTS MAY
SEE READINGS INTO THE LOWER 90S.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NOTING THE 12Z GGEM HAS BECOME AN OUTLIER AS IT TRIES TO BRING TS
ERIKA UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP
A WEAKER VERSION DOWN AROUND THE NORTHERN FLORIDA OR GEORGIA
COAST. THIS WAS SIMILAR TO MODEL ENSEMBLES SO WENT ALONG WITH
THIS.

WILL REMAIN HAZY...HOT AND HUMID ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EXCEPT COOLER ALONG THE S COAST WITH
ONSHORE WINDS. LOOKS TO BE A VERY SULTRY DAY.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MAY SEE BACKDOOR FRONT TRY TO WORK SWWD OUT
OF MAINE DURING THURSDAY. HAVE PUT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THU/THU NIGHT...THOUGH TIMING IS IN QUESTION THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR FOG IN CT VALLEY REGION OF N MA.

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR...LOCALIZED IFR FOG
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT IN INTERIOR VALLEYS. SEABREEZES LIKELY TODAY
AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY BY 17Z
TODAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE PATCHY
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS NORMALLY
PRONE INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WELL AS NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
GENERALLY W/NW FLOW BUT WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS FRI AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP. ONLY
WRINKLE IS A LEFTOVER EASTERLY SWELL OF 3 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE
WATERS EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE GOOD VSBY/LIGHT
WINDS AND DRY WEATHER PROVIDE FABULOUS LATE SUMMER BOATING
WEATHER.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SW WIND GUSTS APPROACH 20 KT SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 280530
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
130 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE AS THE HIGH
STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE. HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR A GOOD PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
130 AM UPDATE...
SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS SNE. EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP
IN THE CT VALLEY REGION OF N MA WHICH MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE.
CHILLY EARLY MORNING WITH MINS IN THE 50S AND SOME UPPER 40S IN W
MA. MILDEST READINGS IN THE LOWER 60S WILL BE CONFINED TO BOS AND
AREAS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FRIDAY...

ANOTHER GEM OF A DAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO NEW ENG WITH
SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD SOME DECORATIVE SCATTERED DIURNAL CU
BUT SHOULD STILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. MAX
TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SEABREEZES DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S...SO REMAINING VERY
COMFORTABLE. ENJOY!

FRI NIGHT...

ANOTHER COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD YIELDING
LIGHT WINDS/MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH A DRY AIRMASS WITH DEW
PTS IN THE 50S. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF MIN TEMPS IN
THE 50S...WITH LOW TO MID 60S IN THE URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE
COAST. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOW LYING
AREAS AND VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS
  WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUSLY HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS E ACROSS THE NORTHERN
  TIER DURING THE WORK WEEK

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SEEN WITH THE GENERAL SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. CONTINUE TO NOTE SOME PASSING SHORT WAVES IN THE GENERAL
FLOW MAINLY AROUND THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME...THOUGH TIMING IS
IN QUESTION DUE TO HOW EACH INDIVIDUAL MODELS HANDLES THEM. WITH
HIGH PRES AND SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS ANOMALOUS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CANADA...WILL SEE RETURN TO SUMMER AND TRIPLE H CONDITIONS
FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS MOST AREAS BEGIN THEIR SCHOOL
YEARS.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH ALSO MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC LATE IN THE PERIOD
/WED AND THU/ SO...IN COMBINATION WITH BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC...MAY SEE A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
TRY TO WORK DOWN THE COAST OUT OF MAINE. NOTED THIS FEATURE ON
WEDNESDAY/S OP MODEL RUNS...AND RATHER GOOD CONSISTENCY SEEN ON
TODAY/S RUNS AS WELL ESPECIALLY THIS FAR OUT. HOWEVER...APPEARS
THIS FRONT WASHES OUT QUICKLY...WHILE THE OVERALL HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGING LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LARGE HIGH PRES ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT TO S-SW DURING THE DAY
AND WILL PICK UP A BIT MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST. WEAK SEA BREEZES
LOOK TO KICK IN ALONG THE E COASTAL BEACHES. TEMPS WILL RISE TO
THE LOWER- MID 80S BUT DEWPTS REMAIN COMFORTABLE AWAY FROM THE
COAST...MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
60S WITH A FEW UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS OF N CENTRAL
AND W MA.

MIGHT SEE SOME LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORMALLY
PRONE INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WELL AS NEAR THE COAST AS DEWPTS SLOWLY
INCREASE.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DIVERGENCE IN MODEL GUIDANCE WORKS IN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH
TIMING ISSUES AMONGST INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS ON HOW THEY HANDLE
WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING ALONG IN THE UPPER FLOW. DO NOTE THAT THE
H5 CUTOFF PROGRESSIVE LOW HAS FLATTENED OUT ON THE 12Z MODEL
SUITE. HOWEVER...GFS AND NAM BOTH RATHER ROBUST IN BRINGING SOME
PRECIP INTO THE REGION DURING SUN/MON TIMEFRAME...WHILE THE ECMWF
AND GGEM REMAIN MAINLY DRY. WITH STRONG RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE IN
PLACE... STUCK WITH A DRY FORECAST.

AS S-SW WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED...WILL SEE A RETURN OF HIGHER
HUMIDITIES AS WELL AS TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS BOTH
MON AND TUE RUNNING AS MUCH AS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 80S. A FEW SPOTS MAY
SEE READINGS INTO THE LOWER 90S.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NOTING THE 12Z GGEM HAS BECOME AN OUTLIER AS IT TRIES TO BRING TS
ERIKA UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP
A WEAKER VERSION DOWN AROUND THE NORTHERN FLORIDA OR GEORGIA
COAST. THIS WAS SIMILAR TO MODEL ENSEMBLES SO WENT ALONG WITH
THIS.

WILL REMAIN HAZY...HOT AND HUMID ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EXCEPT COOLER ALONG THE S COAST WITH
ONSHORE WINDS. LOOKS TO BE A VERY SULTRY DAY.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MAY SEE BACKDOOR FRONT TRY TO WORK SWWD OUT
OF MAINE DURING THURSDAY. HAVE PUT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THU/THU NIGHT...THOUGH TIMING IS IN QUESTION THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR FOG IN CT VALLEY REGION OF N MA.

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR...LOCALIZED IFR FOG
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT IN INTERIOR VALLEYS. SEABREEZES LIKELY TODAY
AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY BY 17Z
TODAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE PATCHY
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS NORMALLY
PRONE INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WELL AS NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
GENERALLY W/NW FLOW BUT WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS FRI AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP. ONLY
WRINKLE IS A LEFTOVER EASTERLY SWELL OF 3 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE
WATERS EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE GOOD VSBY/LIGHT
WINDS AND DRY WEATHER PROVIDE FABULOUS LATE SUMMER BOATING
WEATHER.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SW WIND GUSTS APPROACH 20 KT SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 280530
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
130 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE AS THE HIGH
STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE. HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR A GOOD PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
130 AM UPDATE...
SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS SNE. EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP
IN THE CT VALLEY REGION OF N MA WHICH MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE.
CHILLY EARLY MORNING WITH MINS IN THE 50S AND SOME UPPER 40S IN W
MA. MILDEST READINGS IN THE LOWER 60S WILL BE CONFINED TO BOS AND
AREAS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FRIDAY...

ANOTHER GEM OF A DAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO NEW ENG WITH
SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD SOME DECORATIVE SCATTERED DIURNAL CU
BUT SHOULD STILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. MAX
TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SEABREEZES DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S...SO REMAINING VERY
COMFORTABLE. ENJOY!

FRI NIGHT...

ANOTHER COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD YIELDING
LIGHT WINDS/MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH A DRY AIRMASS WITH DEW
PTS IN THE 50S. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF MIN TEMPS IN
THE 50S...WITH LOW TO MID 60S IN THE URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE
COAST. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOW LYING
AREAS AND VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS
  WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUSLY HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS E ACROSS THE NORTHERN
  TIER DURING THE WORK WEEK

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SEEN WITH THE GENERAL SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. CONTINUE TO NOTE SOME PASSING SHORT WAVES IN THE GENERAL
FLOW MAINLY AROUND THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME...THOUGH TIMING IS
IN QUESTION DUE TO HOW EACH INDIVIDUAL MODELS HANDLES THEM. WITH
HIGH PRES AND SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS ANOMALOUS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CANADA...WILL SEE RETURN TO SUMMER AND TRIPLE H CONDITIONS
FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS MOST AREAS BEGIN THEIR SCHOOL
YEARS.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH ALSO MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC LATE IN THE PERIOD
/WED AND THU/ SO...IN COMBINATION WITH BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC...MAY SEE A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
TRY TO WORK DOWN THE COAST OUT OF MAINE. NOTED THIS FEATURE ON
WEDNESDAY/S OP MODEL RUNS...AND RATHER GOOD CONSISTENCY SEEN ON
TODAY/S RUNS AS WELL ESPECIALLY THIS FAR OUT. HOWEVER...APPEARS
THIS FRONT WASHES OUT QUICKLY...WHILE THE OVERALL HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGING LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LARGE HIGH PRES ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT TO S-SW DURING THE DAY
AND WILL PICK UP A BIT MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST. WEAK SEA BREEZES
LOOK TO KICK IN ALONG THE E COASTAL BEACHES. TEMPS WILL RISE TO
THE LOWER- MID 80S BUT DEWPTS REMAIN COMFORTABLE AWAY FROM THE
COAST...MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
60S WITH A FEW UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS OF N CENTRAL
AND W MA.

MIGHT SEE SOME LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORMALLY
PRONE INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WELL AS NEAR THE COAST AS DEWPTS SLOWLY
INCREASE.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DIVERGENCE IN MODEL GUIDANCE WORKS IN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH
TIMING ISSUES AMONGST INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS ON HOW THEY HANDLE
WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING ALONG IN THE UPPER FLOW. DO NOTE THAT THE
H5 CUTOFF PROGRESSIVE LOW HAS FLATTENED OUT ON THE 12Z MODEL
SUITE. HOWEVER...GFS AND NAM BOTH RATHER ROBUST IN BRINGING SOME
PRECIP INTO THE REGION DURING SUN/MON TIMEFRAME...WHILE THE ECMWF
AND GGEM REMAIN MAINLY DRY. WITH STRONG RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE IN
PLACE... STUCK WITH A DRY FORECAST.

AS S-SW WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED...WILL SEE A RETURN OF HIGHER
HUMIDITIES AS WELL AS TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS BOTH
MON AND TUE RUNNING AS MUCH AS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 80S. A FEW SPOTS MAY
SEE READINGS INTO THE LOWER 90S.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NOTING THE 12Z GGEM HAS BECOME AN OUTLIER AS IT TRIES TO BRING TS
ERIKA UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP
A WEAKER VERSION DOWN AROUND THE NORTHERN FLORIDA OR GEORGIA
COAST. THIS WAS SIMILAR TO MODEL ENSEMBLES SO WENT ALONG WITH
THIS.

WILL REMAIN HAZY...HOT AND HUMID ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EXCEPT COOLER ALONG THE S COAST WITH
ONSHORE WINDS. LOOKS TO BE A VERY SULTRY DAY.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MAY SEE BACKDOOR FRONT TRY TO WORK SWWD OUT
OF MAINE DURING THURSDAY. HAVE PUT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THU/THU NIGHT...THOUGH TIMING IS IN QUESTION THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR FOG IN CT VALLEY REGION OF N MA.

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR...LOCALIZED IFR FOG
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT IN INTERIOR VALLEYS. SEABREEZES LIKELY TODAY
AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY BY 17Z
TODAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE PATCHY
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS NORMALLY
PRONE INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WELL AS NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
GENERALLY W/NW FLOW BUT WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS FRI AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP. ONLY
WRINKLE IS A LEFTOVER EASTERLY SWELL OF 3 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE
WATERS EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE GOOD VSBY/LIGHT
WINDS AND DRY WEATHER PROVIDE FABULOUS LATE SUMMER BOATING
WEATHER.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SW WIND GUSTS APPROACH 20 KT SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 280530
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
130 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE AS THE HIGH
STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE. HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR A GOOD PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
130 AM UPDATE...
SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS SNE. EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP
IN THE CT VALLEY REGION OF N MA WHICH MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE.
CHILLY EARLY MORNING WITH MINS IN THE 50S AND SOME UPPER 40S IN W
MA. MILDEST READINGS IN THE LOWER 60S WILL BE CONFINED TO BOS AND
AREAS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FRIDAY...

ANOTHER GEM OF A DAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO NEW ENG WITH
SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD SOME DECORATIVE SCATTERED DIURNAL CU
BUT SHOULD STILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. MAX
TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SEABREEZES DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S...SO REMAINING VERY
COMFORTABLE. ENJOY!

FRI NIGHT...

ANOTHER COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD YIELDING
LIGHT WINDS/MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH A DRY AIRMASS WITH DEW
PTS IN THE 50S. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF MIN TEMPS IN
THE 50S...WITH LOW TO MID 60S IN THE URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE
COAST. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOW LYING
AREAS AND VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS
  WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUSLY HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS E ACROSS THE NORTHERN
  TIER DURING THE WORK WEEK

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SEEN WITH THE GENERAL SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. CONTINUE TO NOTE SOME PASSING SHORT WAVES IN THE GENERAL
FLOW MAINLY AROUND THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME...THOUGH TIMING IS
IN QUESTION DUE TO HOW EACH INDIVIDUAL MODELS HANDLES THEM. WITH
HIGH PRES AND SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS ANOMALOUS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CANADA...WILL SEE RETURN TO SUMMER AND TRIPLE H CONDITIONS
FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS MOST AREAS BEGIN THEIR SCHOOL
YEARS.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH ALSO MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC LATE IN THE PERIOD
/WED AND THU/ SO...IN COMBINATION WITH BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC...MAY SEE A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
TRY TO WORK DOWN THE COAST OUT OF MAINE. NOTED THIS FEATURE ON
WEDNESDAY/S OP MODEL RUNS...AND RATHER GOOD CONSISTENCY SEEN ON
TODAY/S RUNS AS WELL ESPECIALLY THIS FAR OUT. HOWEVER...APPEARS
THIS FRONT WASHES OUT QUICKLY...WHILE THE OVERALL HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGING LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LARGE HIGH PRES ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT TO S-SW DURING THE DAY
AND WILL PICK UP A BIT MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST. WEAK SEA BREEZES
LOOK TO KICK IN ALONG THE E COASTAL BEACHES. TEMPS WILL RISE TO
THE LOWER- MID 80S BUT DEWPTS REMAIN COMFORTABLE AWAY FROM THE
COAST...MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
60S WITH A FEW UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS OF N CENTRAL
AND W MA.

MIGHT SEE SOME LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORMALLY
PRONE INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WELL AS NEAR THE COAST AS DEWPTS SLOWLY
INCREASE.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DIVERGENCE IN MODEL GUIDANCE WORKS IN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH
TIMING ISSUES AMONGST INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS ON HOW THEY HANDLE
WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING ALONG IN THE UPPER FLOW. DO NOTE THAT THE
H5 CUTOFF PROGRESSIVE LOW HAS FLATTENED OUT ON THE 12Z MODEL
SUITE. HOWEVER...GFS AND NAM BOTH RATHER ROBUST IN BRINGING SOME
PRECIP INTO THE REGION DURING SUN/MON TIMEFRAME...WHILE THE ECMWF
AND GGEM REMAIN MAINLY DRY. WITH STRONG RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE IN
PLACE... STUCK WITH A DRY FORECAST.

AS S-SW WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED...WILL SEE A RETURN OF HIGHER
HUMIDITIES AS WELL AS TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS BOTH
MON AND TUE RUNNING AS MUCH AS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 80S. A FEW SPOTS MAY
SEE READINGS INTO THE LOWER 90S.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NOTING THE 12Z GGEM HAS BECOME AN OUTLIER AS IT TRIES TO BRING TS
ERIKA UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP
A WEAKER VERSION DOWN AROUND THE NORTHERN FLORIDA OR GEORGIA
COAST. THIS WAS SIMILAR TO MODEL ENSEMBLES SO WENT ALONG WITH
THIS.

WILL REMAIN HAZY...HOT AND HUMID ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EXCEPT COOLER ALONG THE S COAST WITH
ONSHORE WINDS. LOOKS TO BE A VERY SULTRY DAY.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MAY SEE BACKDOOR FRONT TRY TO WORK SWWD OUT
OF MAINE DURING THURSDAY. HAVE PUT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THU/THU NIGHT...THOUGH TIMING IS IN QUESTION THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR FOG IN CT VALLEY REGION OF N MA.

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR...LOCALIZED IFR FOG
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT IN INTERIOR VALLEYS. SEABREEZES LIKELY TODAY
AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY BY 17Z
TODAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE PATCHY
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS NORMALLY
PRONE INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WELL AS NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
GENERALLY W/NW FLOW BUT WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS FRI AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP. ONLY
WRINKLE IS A LEFTOVER EASTERLY SWELL OF 3 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE
WATERS EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE GOOD VSBY/LIGHT
WINDS AND DRY WEATHER PROVIDE FABULOUS LATE SUMMER BOATING
WEATHER.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SW WIND GUSTS APPROACH 20 KT SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 280140
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
940 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE AS THE HIGH
STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE. HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR A GOOD PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
940 PM UPDATE...
STILL SOME HIGH BASED STRATO-CU ACROSS THE REGION...BUT MOST OF
SNE IS CLOUD FREE. NORTHERN EDGE OF CI SHIELD ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
S COAST AND ISLANDS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. LOOKING AT
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS DRIFTING ACROSS THE
REGION FROM TIME TO TIME. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TEMPS WILL FALL MODESTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH WINDS DECOUPLING...
CLOUDS ERODING AND A DRY AIRMASS WITH DEWPTS IN THE 50S. SO QUITE
COMFORTABLE TONIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE 50S! THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE COAST WITH
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

GIVEN THE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER
MET AND MAV MOS TEMP DATA SETS. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG
POSSIBLE ACROSS W MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...

ANOTHER GEM OF A DAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO NEW ENG WITH
SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD SOME DECORATIVE SCATTERED DIURNAL CU
BUT SHOULD STILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. MAX
TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SEABREEZES DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S...SO REMAINING VERY
COMFORTABLE. ENJOY!

FRI NIGHT...

ANOTHER COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD YIELDING
LIGHT WINDS/MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH A DRY AIRMASS WITH DEW
PTS IN THE 50S. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF MIN TEMPS IN
THE 50S...WITH LOW TO MID 60S IN THE URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE
COAST. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOW LYING
AREAS AND VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS
  WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUSLY HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS E ACROSS THE NORTHERN
  TIER DURING THE WORK WEEK

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SEEN WITH THE GENERAL SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. CONTINUE TO NOTE SOME PASSING SHORT WAVES IN THE GENERAL
FLOW MAINLY AROUND THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME...THOUGH TIMING IS
IN QUESTION DUE TO HOW EACH INDIVIDUAL MODELS HANDLES THEM. WITH
HIGH PRES AND SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS ANOMALOUS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CANADA...WILL SEE RETURN TO SUMMER AND TRIPLE H CONDITIONS
FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS MOST AREAS BEGIN THEIR SCHOOL
YEARS.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH ALSO MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC LATE IN THE PERIOD
/WED AND THU/ SO...IN COMBINATION WITH BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC...MAY SEE A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
TRY TO WORK DOWN THE COAST OUT OF MAINE. NOTED THIS FEATURE ON
WEDNESDAY/S OP MODEL RUNS...AND RATHER GOOD CONSISTENCY SEEN ON
TODAY/S RUNS AS WELL ESPECIALLY THIS FAR OUT. HOWEVER...APPEARS
THIS FRONT WASHES OUT QUICKLY...WHILE THE OVERALL HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGING LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LARGE HIGH PRES ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT TO S-SW DURING THE DAY
AND WILL PICK UP A BIT MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST. WEAK SEA BREEZES
LOOK TO KICK IN ALONG THE E COASTAL BEACHES. TEMPS WILL RISE TO
THE LOWER- MID 80S BUT DEWPTS REMAIN COMFORTABLE AWAY FROM THE
COAST...MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
60S WITH A FEW UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS OF N CENTRAL
AND W MA.

MIGHT SEE SOME LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORMALLY
PRONE INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WELL AS NEAR THE COAST AS DEWPTS SLOWLY
INCREASE.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DIVERGENCE IN MODEL GUIDANCE WORKS IN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH
TIMING ISSUES AMONGST INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS ON HOW THEY HANDLE
WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING ALONG IN THE UPPER FLOW. DO NOTE THAT THE
H5 CUTOFF PROGRESSIVE LOW HAS FLATTENED OUT ON THE 12Z MODEL
SUITE. HOWEVER...GFS AND NAM BOTH RATHER ROBUST IN BRINGING SOME
PRECIP INTO THE REGION DURING SUN/MON TIMEFRAME...WHILE THE ECMWF
AND GGEM REMAIN MAINLY DRY. WITH STRONG RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE IN
PLACE... STUCK WITH A DRY FORECAST.

AS S-SW WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED...WILL SEE A RETURN OF HIGHER
HUMIDITIES AS WELL AS TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS BOTH
MON AND TUE RUNNING AS MUCH AS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 80S. A FEW SPOTS MAY
SEE READINGS INTO THE LOWER 90S.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NOTING THE 12Z GGEM HAS BECOME AN OUTLIER AS IT TRIES TO BRING TS
ERIKA UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP
A WEAKER VERSION DOWN AROUND THE NORTHERN FLORIDA OR GEORGIA
COAST. THIS WAS SIMILAR TO MODEL ENSEMBLES SO WENT ALONG WITH
THIS.

WILL REMAIN HAZY...HOT AND HUMID ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EXCEPT COOLER ALONG THE S COAST WITH
ONSHORE WINDS. LOOKS TO BE A VERY SULTRY DAY.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MAY SEE BACKDOOR FRONT TRY TO WORK SWWD OUT
OF MAINE DURING THURSDAY. HAVE PUT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THU/THU NIGHT...THOUGH TIMING IS IN QUESTION THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED MVFR-IFR AROUND OR AFTER 06Z IN PATCHY
FOG IN INTERIOR VALLEYS. HIGH CONFIDENCE EXCEPT LOWER IN AREAL
COVERAGE OF FOG.

FRIDAY/FRI NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. ISOLATED MVFR POSSIBLE
IN LATE NIGHT FOG INTERIOR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE PATCHY
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS NORMALLY
PRONE INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WELL AS NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
GENERALLY W/NW FLOW BUT WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS FRI AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP. ONLY
WRINKLE IS A LEFTOVER EASTERLY SWELL OF 3 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE
WATERS EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE GOOD VSBY/LIGHT
WINDS AND DRY WEATHER PROVIDE FABULOUS LATE SUMMER BOATING
WEATHER.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SW WIND GUSTS APPROACH 20 KT SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC/NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 280140
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
940 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE AS THE HIGH
STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE. HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR A GOOD PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
940 PM UPDATE...
STILL SOME HIGH BASED STRATO-CU ACROSS THE REGION...BUT MOST OF
SNE IS CLOUD FREE. NORTHERN EDGE OF CI SHIELD ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
S COAST AND ISLANDS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. LOOKING AT
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS DRIFTING ACROSS THE
REGION FROM TIME TO TIME. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TEMPS WILL FALL MODESTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH WINDS DECOUPLING...
CLOUDS ERODING AND A DRY AIRMASS WITH DEWPTS IN THE 50S. SO QUITE
COMFORTABLE TONIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE 50S! THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE COAST WITH
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

GIVEN THE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER
MET AND MAV MOS TEMP DATA SETS. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG
POSSIBLE ACROSS W MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...

ANOTHER GEM OF A DAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO NEW ENG WITH
SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD SOME DECORATIVE SCATTERED DIURNAL CU
BUT SHOULD STILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. MAX
TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SEABREEZES DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S...SO REMAINING VERY
COMFORTABLE. ENJOY!

FRI NIGHT...

ANOTHER COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD YIELDING
LIGHT WINDS/MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH A DRY AIRMASS WITH DEW
PTS IN THE 50S. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF MIN TEMPS IN
THE 50S...WITH LOW TO MID 60S IN THE URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE
COAST. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOW LYING
AREAS AND VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS
  WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUSLY HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS E ACROSS THE NORTHERN
  TIER DURING THE WORK WEEK

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SEEN WITH THE GENERAL SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. CONTINUE TO NOTE SOME PASSING SHORT WAVES IN THE GENERAL
FLOW MAINLY AROUND THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME...THOUGH TIMING IS
IN QUESTION DUE TO HOW EACH INDIVIDUAL MODELS HANDLES THEM. WITH
HIGH PRES AND SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS ANOMALOUS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CANADA...WILL SEE RETURN TO SUMMER AND TRIPLE H CONDITIONS
FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS MOST AREAS BEGIN THEIR SCHOOL
YEARS.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH ALSO MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC LATE IN THE PERIOD
/WED AND THU/ SO...IN COMBINATION WITH BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC...MAY SEE A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
TRY TO WORK DOWN THE COAST OUT OF MAINE. NOTED THIS FEATURE ON
WEDNESDAY/S OP MODEL RUNS...AND RATHER GOOD CONSISTENCY SEEN ON
TODAY/S RUNS AS WELL ESPECIALLY THIS FAR OUT. HOWEVER...APPEARS
THIS FRONT WASHES OUT QUICKLY...WHILE THE OVERALL HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGING LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LARGE HIGH PRES ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT TO S-SW DURING THE DAY
AND WILL PICK UP A BIT MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST. WEAK SEA BREEZES
LOOK TO KICK IN ALONG THE E COASTAL BEACHES. TEMPS WILL RISE TO
THE LOWER- MID 80S BUT DEWPTS REMAIN COMFORTABLE AWAY FROM THE
COAST...MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
60S WITH A FEW UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS OF N CENTRAL
AND W MA.

MIGHT SEE SOME LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORMALLY
PRONE INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WELL AS NEAR THE COAST AS DEWPTS SLOWLY
INCREASE.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DIVERGENCE IN MODEL GUIDANCE WORKS IN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH
TIMING ISSUES AMONGST INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS ON HOW THEY HANDLE
WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING ALONG IN THE UPPER FLOW. DO NOTE THAT THE
H5 CUTOFF PROGRESSIVE LOW HAS FLATTENED OUT ON THE 12Z MODEL
SUITE. HOWEVER...GFS AND NAM BOTH RATHER ROBUST IN BRINGING SOME
PRECIP INTO THE REGION DURING SUN/MON TIMEFRAME...WHILE THE ECMWF
AND GGEM REMAIN MAINLY DRY. WITH STRONG RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE IN
PLACE... STUCK WITH A DRY FORECAST.

AS S-SW WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED...WILL SEE A RETURN OF HIGHER
HUMIDITIES AS WELL AS TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS BOTH
MON AND TUE RUNNING AS MUCH AS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 80S. A FEW SPOTS MAY
SEE READINGS INTO THE LOWER 90S.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NOTING THE 12Z GGEM HAS BECOME AN OUTLIER AS IT TRIES TO BRING TS
ERIKA UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP
A WEAKER VERSION DOWN AROUND THE NORTHERN FLORIDA OR GEORGIA
COAST. THIS WAS SIMILAR TO MODEL ENSEMBLES SO WENT ALONG WITH
THIS.

WILL REMAIN HAZY...HOT AND HUMID ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EXCEPT COOLER ALONG THE S COAST WITH
ONSHORE WINDS. LOOKS TO BE A VERY SULTRY DAY.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MAY SEE BACKDOOR FRONT TRY TO WORK SWWD OUT
OF MAINE DURING THURSDAY. HAVE PUT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THU/THU NIGHT...THOUGH TIMING IS IN QUESTION THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED MVFR-IFR AROUND OR AFTER 06Z IN PATCHY
FOG IN INTERIOR VALLEYS. HIGH CONFIDENCE EXCEPT LOWER IN AREAL
COVERAGE OF FOG.

FRIDAY/FRI NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. ISOLATED MVFR POSSIBLE
IN LATE NIGHT FOG INTERIOR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE PATCHY
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS NORMALLY
PRONE INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WELL AS NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
GENERALLY W/NW FLOW BUT WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS FRI AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP. ONLY
WRINKLE IS A LEFTOVER EASTERLY SWELL OF 3 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE
WATERS EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE GOOD VSBY/LIGHT
WINDS AND DRY WEATHER PROVIDE FABULOUS LATE SUMMER BOATING
WEATHER.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SW WIND GUSTS APPROACH 20 KT SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC/NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 272331
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
731 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE AS THE HIGH
STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE. HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR A GOOD PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

725 PM UPDATE...
DIURNAL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TENDING TO BREAK UP WITH SUNSET...
THOUGH SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND WESTERN AREAS AS THEY MOVE E OUT OF NY STATE. ALSO NOTING
BANDS OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING UP THE COAST INTO S COASTAL AREAS
WHICH WILL HANG IN THERE AT LEAST FOR SEVERAL HOURS...THEN SHOULD
SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.

W-NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE.

FORECAST APPEARS TO BE PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK...BUT HAVE UPDATED
NEAR TERM INFO TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...
TEMPS WILL FALL MODESTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH WINDS DECOUPLING...
CLOUDS ERODING AND A DRY AIRMASS WITH DEWPTS IN THE 50S. SO QUITE
COMFORTABLE TONIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE 50S! THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE COAST WITH
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

GIVEN THE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER
MET AND MAV MOS TEMP DATA SETS. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG
POSSIBLE ACROSS W MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

FRIDAY...

ANOTHER GEM OF A DAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO NEW ENG WITH
SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD SOME DECORATIVE SCATTERED DIURNAL CU
BUT SHOULD STILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. MAX
TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SEABREEZES DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S...SO REMAINING VERY
COMFORTABLE. ENJOY!

FRI NIGHT...

ANOTHER COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD YIELDING
LIGHT WINDS/MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH A DRY AIRMASS WITH DEW
PTS IN THE 50S. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF MIN TEMPS IN
THE 50S...WITH LOW TO MID 60S IN THE URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE
COAST. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOW LYING
AREAS AND VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS
  WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUSLY HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS E ACROSS THE NORTHERN
  TIER DURING THE WORK WEEK

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SEEN WITH THE GENERAL SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. CONTINUE TO NOTE SOME PASSING SHORT WAVES IN THE GENERAL
FLOW MAINLY AROUND THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME...THOUGH TIMING IS
IN QUESTION DUE TO HOW EACH INDIVIDUAL MODELS HANDLES THEM. WITH
HIGH PRES AND SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS ANOMALOUS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CANADA...WILL SEE RETURN TO SUMMER AND TRIPLE H CONDITIONS
FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS MOST AREAS BEGIN THEIR SCHOOL
YEARS.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH ALSO MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC LATE IN THE PERIOD
/WED AND THU/ SO...IN COMBINATION WITH BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC...MAY SEE A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
TRY TO WORK DOWN THE COAST OUT OF MAINE. NOTED THIS FEATURE ON
WEDNESDAY/S OP MODEL RUNS...AND RATHER GOOD CONSISTENCY SEEN ON
TODAY/S RUNS AS WELL ESPECIALLY THIS FAR OUT. HOWEVER...APPEARS
THIS FRONT WASHES OUT QUICKLY...WHILE THE OVERALL HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGING LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LARGE HIGH PRES ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT TO S-SW DURING THE DAY
AND WILL PICK UP A BIT MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST. WEAK SEA BREEZES
LOOK TO KICK IN ALONG THE E COASTAL BEACHES. TEMPS WILL RISE TO
THE LOWER- MID 80S BUT DEWPTS REMAIN COMFORTABLE AWAY FROM THE
COAST...MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
60S WITH A FEW UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS OF N CENTRAL
AND W MA.

MIGHT SEE SOME LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORMALLY
PRONE INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WELL AS NEAR THE COAST AS DEWPTS SLOWLY
INCREASE.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DIVERGENCE IN MODEL GUIDANCE WORKS IN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH
TIMING ISSUES AMONGST INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS ON HOW THEY HANDLE
WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING ALONG IN THE UPPER FLOW. DO NOTE THAT THE
H5 CUTOFF PROGRESSIVE LOW HAS FLATTENED OUT ON THE 12Z MODEL
SUITE. HOWEVER...GFS AND NAM BOTH RATHER ROBUST IN BRINGING SOME
PRECIP INTO THE REGION DURING SUN/MON TIMEFRAME...WHILE THE ECMWF
AND GGEM REMAIN MAINLY DRY. WITH STRONG RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE IN
PLACE... STUCK WITH A DRY FORECAST.

AS S-SW WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED...WILL SEE A RETURN OF HIGHER
HUMIDITIES AS WELL AS TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS BOTH
MON AND TUE RUNNING AS MUCH AS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 80S. A FEW SPOTS MAY
SEE READINGS INTO THE LOWER 90S.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NOTING THE 12Z GGEM HAS BECOME AN OUTLIER AS IT TRIES TO BRING TS
ERIKA UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP
A WEAKER VERSION DOWN AROUND THE NORTHERN FLORIDA OR GEORGIA
COAST. THIS WAS SIMILAR TO MODEL ENSEMBLES SO WENT ALONG WITH
THIS.

WILL REMAIN HAZY...HOT AND HUMID ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EXCEPT COOLER ALONG THE S COAST WITH
ONSHORE WINDS. LOOKS TO BE A VERY SULTRY DAY.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MAY SEE BACKDOOR FRONT TRY TO WORK SWWD OUT
OF MAINE DURING THURSDAY. HAVE PUT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THU/THU NIGHT...THOUGH TIMING IS IN QUESTION THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED MVFR-IFR AROUND OR AFTER 06Z IN PATCHY
FOG IN INTERIOR VALLEYS. HIGH CONFIDENCE EXCEPT LOWER IN AREAL
COVERAGE OF FOG.

FRIDAY/FRI NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. ISOLATED MVFR POSSIBLE
IN LATE NIGHT FOG INTERIOR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE PATCHY
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS NORMALLY
PRONE INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WELL AS NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
GENERALLY W/NW FLOW BUT WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS FRI AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP. ONLY
WRINKLE IS A LEFTOVER EASTERLY SWELL OF 3 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE
WATERS EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE GOOD VSBY/LIGHT
WINDS AND DRY WEATHER PROVIDE FABULOUS LATE SUMMER BOATING
WEATHER.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SW WIND GUSTS APPROACH 20 KT SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/EVT
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 272331
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
731 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE AS THE HIGH
STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE. HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR A GOOD PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

725 PM UPDATE...
DIURNAL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TENDING TO BREAK UP WITH SUNSET...
THOUGH SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND WESTERN AREAS AS THEY MOVE E OUT OF NY STATE. ALSO NOTING
BANDS OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING UP THE COAST INTO S COASTAL AREAS
WHICH WILL HANG IN THERE AT LEAST FOR SEVERAL HOURS...THEN SHOULD
SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.

W-NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE.

FORECAST APPEARS TO BE PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK...BUT HAVE UPDATED
NEAR TERM INFO TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...
TEMPS WILL FALL MODESTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH WINDS DECOUPLING...
CLOUDS ERODING AND A DRY AIRMASS WITH DEWPTS IN THE 50S. SO QUITE
COMFORTABLE TONIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE 50S! THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE COAST WITH
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

GIVEN THE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER
MET AND MAV MOS TEMP DATA SETS. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG
POSSIBLE ACROSS W MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

FRIDAY...

ANOTHER GEM OF A DAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO NEW ENG WITH
SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD SOME DECORATIVE SCATTERED DIURNAL CU
BUT SHOULD STILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. MAX
TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SEABREEZES DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S...SO REMAINING VERY
COMFORTABLE. ENJOY!

FRI NIGHT...

ANOTHER COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD YIELDING
LIGHT WINDS/MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH A DRY AIRMASS WITH DEW
PTS IN THE 50S. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF MIN TEMPS IN
THE 50S...WITH LOW TO MID 60S IN THE URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE
COAST. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOW LYING
AREAS AND VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS
  WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUSLY HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS E ACROSS THE NORTHERN
  TIER DURING THE WORK WEEK

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SEEN WITH THE GENERAL SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. CONTINUE TO NOTE SOME PASSING SHORT WAVES IN THE GENERAL
FLOW MAINLY AROUND THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME...THOUGH TIMING IS
IN QUESTION DUE TO HOW EACH INDIVIDUAL MODELS HANDLES THEM. WITH
HIGH PRES AND SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS ANOMALOUS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CANADA...WILL SEE RETURN TO SUMMER AND TRIPLE H CONDITIONS
FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS MOST AREAS BEGIN THEIR SCHOOL
YEARS.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH ALSO MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC LATE IN THE PERIOD
/WED AND THU/ SO...IN COMBINATION WITH BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC...MAY SEE A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
TRY TO WORK DOWN THE COAST OUT OF MAINE. NOTED THIS FEATURE ON
WEDNESDAY/S OP MODEL RUNS...AND RATHER GOOD CONSISTENCY SEEN ON
TODAY/S RUNS AS WELL ESPECIALLY THIS FAR OUT. HOWEVER...APPEARS
THIS FRONT WASHES OUT QUICKLY...WHILE THE OVERALL HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGING LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LARGE HIGH PRES ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT TO S-SW DURING THE DAY
AND WILL PICK UP A BIT MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST. WEAK SEA BREEZES
LOOK TO KICK IN ALONG THE E COASTAL BEACHES. TEMPS WILL RISE TO
THE LOWER- MID 80S BUT DEWPTS REMAIN COMFORTABLE AWAY FROM THE
COAST...MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
60S WITH A FEW UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS OF N CENTRAL
AND W MA.

MIGHT SEE SOME LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORMALLY
PRONE INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WELL AS NEAR THE COAST AS DEWPTS SLOWLY
INCREASE.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DIVERGENCE IN MODEL GUIDANCE WORKS IN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH
TIMING ISSUES AMONGST INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS ON HOW THEY HANDLE
WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING ALONG IN THE UPPER FLOW. DO NOTE THAT THE
H5 CUTOFF PROGRESSIVE LOW HAS FLATTENED OUT ON THE 12Z MODEL
SUITE. HOWEVER...GFS AND NAM BOTH RATHER ROBUST IN BRINGING SOME
PRECIP INTO THE REGION DURING SUN/MON TIMEFRAME...WHILE THE ECMWF
AND GGEM REMAIN MAINLY DRY. WITH STRONG RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE IN
PLACE... STUCK WITH A DRY FORECAST.

AS S-SW WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED...WILL SEE A RETURN OF HIGHER
HUMIDITIES AS WELL AS TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS BOTH
MON AND TUE RUNNING AS MUCH AS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 80S. A FEW SPOTS MAY
SEE READINGS INTO THE LOWER 90S.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NOTING THE 12Z GGEM HAS BECOME AN OUTLIER AS IT TRIES TO BRING TS
ERIKA UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP
A WEAKER VERSION DOWN AROUND THE NORTHERN FLORIDA OR GEORGIA
COAST. THIS WAS SIMILAR TO MODEL ENSEMBLES SO WENT ALONG WITH
THIS.

WILL REMAIN HAZY...HOT AND HUMID ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EXCEPT COOLER ALONG THE S COAST WITH
ONSHORE WINDS. LOOKS TO BE A VERY SULTRY DAY.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MAY SEE BACKDOOR FRONT TRY TO WORK SWWD OUT
OF MAINE DURING THURSDAY. HAVE PUT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THU/THU NIGHT...THOUGH TIMING IS IN QUESTION THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED MVFR-IFR AROUND OR AFTER 06Z IN PATCHY
FOG IN INTERIOR VALLEYS. HIGH CONFIDENCE EXCEPT LOWER IN AREAL
COVERAGE OF FOG.

FRIDAY/FRI NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. ISOLATED MVFR POSSIBLE
IN LATE NIGHT FOG INTERIOR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE PATCHY
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS NORMALLY
PRONE INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WELL AS NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
GENERALLY W/NW FLOW BUT WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS FRI AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP. ONLY
WRINKLE IS A LEFTOVER EASTERLY SWELL OF 3 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE
WATERS EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE GOOD VSBY/LIGHT
WINDS AND DRY WEATHER PROVIDE FABULOUS LATE SUMMER BOATING
WEATHER.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SW WIND GUSTS APPROACH 20 KT SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/EVT
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 272331
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
731 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE AS THE HIGH
STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE. HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR A GOOD PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

725 PM UPDATE...
DIURNAL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TENDING TO BREAK UP WITH SUNSET...
THOUGH SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND WESTERN AREAS AS THEY MOVE E OUT OF NY STATE. ALSO NOTING
BANDS OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING UP THE COAST INTO S COASTAL AREAS
WHICH WILL HANG IN THERE AT LEAST FOR SEVERAL HOURS...THEN SHOULD
SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.

W-NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE.

FORECAST APPEARS TO BE PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK...BUT HAVE UPDATED
NEAR TERM INFO TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...
TEMPS WILL FALL MODESTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH WINDS DECOUPLING...
CLOUDS ERODING AND A DRY AIRMASS WITH DEWPTS IN THE 50S. SO QUITE
COMFORTABLE TONIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE 50S! THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE COAST WITH
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

GIVEN THE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER
MET AND MAV MOS TEMP DATA SETS. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG
POSSIBLE ACROSS W MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

FRIDAY...

ANOTHER GEM OF A DAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO NEW ENG WITH
SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD SOME DECORATIVE SCATTERED DIURNAL CU
BUT SHOULD STILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. MAX
TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SEABREEZES DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S...SO REMAINING VERY
COMFORTABLE. ENJOY!

FRI NIGHT...

ANOTHER COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD YIELDING
LIGHT WINDS/MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH A DRY AIRMASS WITH DEW
PTS IN THE 50S. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF MIN TEMPS IN
THE 50S...WITH LOW TO MID 60S IN THE URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE
COAST. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOW LYING
AREAS AND VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS
  WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUSLY HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS E ACROSS THE NORTHERN
  TIER DURING THE WORK WEEK

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SEEN WITH THE GENERAL SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. CONTINUE TO NOTE SOME PASSING SHORT WAVES IN THE GENERAL
FLOW MAINLY AROUND THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME...THOUGH TIMING IS
IN QUESTION DUE TO HOW EACH INDIVIDUAL MODELS HANDLES THEM. WITH
HIGH PRES AND SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS ANOMALOUS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CANADA...WILL SEE RETURN TO SUMMER AND TRIPLE H CONDITIONS
FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS MOST AREAS BEGIN THEIR SCHOOL
YEARS.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH ALSO MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC LATE IN THE PERIOD
/WED AND THU/ SO...IN COMBINATION WITH BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC...MAY SEE A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
TRY TO WORK DOWN THE COAST OUT OF MAINE. NOTED THIS FEATURE ON
WEDNESDAY/S OP MODEL RUNS...AND RATHER GOOD CONSISTENCY SEEN ON
TODAY/S RUNS AS WELL ESPECIALLY THIS FAR OUT. HOWEVER...APPEARS
THIS FRONT WASHES OUT QUICKLY...WHILE THE OVERALL HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGING LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LARGE HIGH PRES ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT TO S-SW DURING THE DAY
AND WILL PICK UP A BIT MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST. WEAK SEA BREEZES
LOOK TO KICK IN ALONG THE E COASTAL BEACHES. TEMPS WILL RISE TO
THE LOWER- MID 80S BUT DEWPTS REMAIN COMFORTABLE AWAY FROM THE
COAST...MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
60S WITH A FEW UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS OF N CENTRAL
AND W MA.

MIGHT SEE SOME LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORMALLY
PRONE INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WELL AS NEAR THE COAST AS DEWPTS SLOWLY
INCREASE.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DIVERGENCE IN MODEL GUIDANCE WORKS IN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH
TIMING ISSUES AMONGST INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS ON HOW THEY HANDLE
WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING ALONG IN THE UPPER FLOW. DO NOTE THAT THE
H5 CUTOFF PROGRESSIVE LOW HAS FLATTENED OUT ON THE 12Z MODEL
SUITE. HOWEVER...GFS AND NAM BOTH RATHER ROBUST IN BRINGING SOME
PRECIP INTO THE REGION DURING SUN/MON TIMEFRAME...WHILE THE ECMWF
AND GGEM REMAIN MAINLY DRY. WITH STRONG RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE IN
PLACE... STUCK WITH A DRY FORECAST.

AS S-SW WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED...WILL SEE A RETURN OF HIGHER
HUMIDITIES AS WELL AS TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS BOTH
MON AND TUE RUNNING AS MUCH AS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 80S. A FEW SPOTS MAY
SEE READINGS INTO THE LOWER 90S.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NOTING THE 12Z GGEM HAS BECOME AN OUTLIER AS IT TRIES TO BRING TS
ERIKA UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP
A WEAKER VERSION DOWN AROUND THE NORTHERN FLORIDA OR GEORGIA
COAST. THIS WAS SIMILAR TO MODEL ENSEMBLES SO WENT ALONG WITH
THIS.

WILL REMAIN HAZY...HOT AND HUMID ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EXCEPT COOLER ALONG THE S COAST WITH
ONSHORE WINDS. LOOKS TO BE A VERY SULTRY DAY.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MAY SEE BACKDOOR FRONT TRY TO WORK SWWD OUT
OF MAINE DURING THURSDAY. HAVE PUT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THU/THU NIGHT...THOUGH TIMING IS IN QUESTION THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED MVFR-IFR AROUND OR AFTER 06Z IN PATCHY
FOG IN INTERIOR VALLEYS. HIGH CONFIDENCE EXCEPT LOWER IN AREAL
COVERAGE OF FOG.

FRIDAY/FRI NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. ISOLATED MVFR POSSIBLE
IN LATE NIGHT FOG INTERIOR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE PATCHY
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS NORMALLY
PRONE INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WELL AS NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
GENERALLY W/NW FLOW BUT WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS FRI AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP. ONLY
WRINKLE IS A LEFTOVER EASTERLY SWELL OF 3 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE
WATERS EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE GOOD VSBY/LIGHT
WINDS AND DRY WEATHER PROVIDE FABULOUS LATE SUMMER BOATING
WEATHER.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SW WIND GUSTS APPROACH 20 KT SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/EVT
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 272331
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
731 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE AS THE HIGH
STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE. HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR A GOOD PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

725 PM UPDATE...
DIURNAL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TENDING TO BREAK UP WITH SUNSET...
THOUGH SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND WESTERN AREAS AS THEY MOVE E OUT OF NY STATE. ALSO NOTING
BANDS OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING UP THE COAST INTO S COASTAL AREAS
WHICH WILL HANG IN THERE AT LEAST FOR SEVERAL HOURS...THEN SHOULD
SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.

W-NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE.

FORECAST APPEARS TO BE PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK...BUT HAVE UPDATED
NEAR TERM INFO TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...
TEMPS WILL FALL MODESTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH WINDS DECOUPLING...
CLOUDS ERODING AND A DRY AIRMASS WITH DEWPTS IN THE 50S. SO QUITE
COMFORTABLE TONIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE 50S! THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE COAST WITH
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

GIVEN THE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER
MET AND MAV MOS TEMP DATA SETS. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG
POSSIBLE ACROSS W MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

FRIDAY...

ANOTHER GEM OF A DAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO NEW ENG WITH
SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD SOME DECORATIVE SCATTERED DIURNAL CU
BUT SHOULD STILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. MAX
TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SEABREEZES DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S...SO REMAINING VERY
COMFORTABLE. ENJOY!

FRI NIGHT...

ANOTHER COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD YIELDING
LIGHT WINDS/MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH A DRY AIRMASS WITH DEW
PTS IN THE 50S. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF MIN TEMPS IN
THE 50S...WITH LOW TO MID 60S IN THE URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE
COAST. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOW LYING
AREAS AND VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS
  WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUSLY HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS E ACROSS THE NORTHERN
  TIER DURING THE WORK WEEK

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SEEN WITH THE GENERAL SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. CONTINUE TO NOTE SOME PASSING SHORT WAVES IN THE GENERAL
FLOW MAINLY AROUND THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME...THOUGH TIMING IS
IN QUESTION DUE TO HOW EACH INDIVIDUAL MODELS HANDLES THEM. WITH
HIGH PRES AND SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS ANOMALOUS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CANADA...WILL SEE RETURN TO SUMMER AND TRIPLE H CONDITIONS
FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS MOST AREAS BEGIN THEIR SCHOOL
YEARS.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH ALSO MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC LATE IN THE PERIOD
/WED AND THU/ SO...IN COMBINATION WITH BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC...MAY SEE A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
TRY TO WORK DOWN THE COAST OUT OF MAINE. NOTED THIS FEATURE ON
WEDNESDAY/S OP MODEL RUNS...AND RATHER GOOD CONSISTENCY SEEN ON
TODAY/S RUNS AS WELL ESPECIALLY THIS FAR OUT. HOWEVER...APPEARS
THIS FRONT WASHES OUT QUICKLY...WHILE THE OVERALL HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGING LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LARGE HIGH PRES ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT TO S-SW DURING THE DAY
AND WILL PICK UP A BIT MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST. WEAK SEA BREEZES
LOOK TO KICK IN ALONG THE E COASTAL BEACHES. TEMPS WILL RISE TO
THE LOWER- MID 80S BUT DEWPTS REMAIN COMFORTABLE AWAY FROM THE
COAST...MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
60S WITH A FEW UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS OF N CENTRAL
AND W MA.

MIGHT SEE SOME LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORMALLY
PRONE INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WELL AS NEAR THE COAST AS DEWPTS SLOWLY
INCREASE.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DIVERGENCE IN MODEL GUIDANCE WORKS IN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH
TIMING ISSUES AMONGST INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS ON HOW THEY HANDLE
WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING ALONG IN THE UPPER FLOW. DO NOTE THAT THE
H5 CUTOFF PROGRESSIVE LOW HAS FLATTENED OUT ON THE 12Z MODEL
SUITE. HOWEVER...GFS AND NAM BOTH RATHER ROBUST IN BRINGING SOME
PRECIP INTO THE REGION DURING SUN/MON TIMEFRAME...WHILE THE ECMWF
AND GGEM REMAIN MAINLY DRY. WITH STRONG RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE IN
PLACE... STUCK WITH A DRY FORECAST.

AS S-SW WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED...WILL SEE A RETURN OF HIGHER
HUMIDITIES AS WELL AS TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS BOTH
MON AND TUE RUNNING AS MUCH AS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 80S. A FEW SPOTS MAY
SEE READINGS INTO THE LOWER 90S.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NOTING THE 12Z GGEM HAS BECOME AN OUTLIER AS IT TRIES TO BRING TS
ERIKA UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP
A WEAKER VERSION DOWN AROUND THE NORTHERN FLORIDA OR GEORGIA
COAST. THIS WAS SIMILAR TO MODEL ENSEMBLES SO WENT ALONG WITH
THIS.

WILL REMAIN HAZY...HOT AND HUMID ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EXCEPT COOLER ALONG THE S COAST WITH
ONSHORE WINDS. LOOKS TO BE A VERY SULTRY DAY.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MAY SEE BACKDOOR FRONT TRY TO WORK SWWD OUT
OF MAINE DURING THURSDAY. HAVE PUT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THU/THU NIGHT...THOUGH TIMING IS IN QUESTION THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED MVFR-IFR AROUND OR AFTER 06Z IN PATCHY
FOG IN INTERIOR VALLEYS. HIGH CONFIDENCE EXCEPT LOWER IN AREAL
COVERAGE OF FOG.

FRIDAY/FRI NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. ISOLATED MVFR POSSIBLE
IN LATE NIGHT FOG INTERIOR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE PATCHY
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS NORMALLY
PRONE INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WELL AS NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
GENERALLY W/NW FLOW BUT WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS FRI AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP. ONLY
WRINKLE IS A LEFTOVER EASTERLY SWELL OF 3 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE
WATERS EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE GOOD VSBY/LIGHT
WINDS AND DRY WEATHER PROVIDE FABULOUS LATE SUMMER BOATING
WEATHER.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SW WIND GUSTS APPROACH 20 KT SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/EVT
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 272331
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
731 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE AS THE HIGH
STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE. HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR A GOOD PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

725 PM UPDATE...
DIURNAL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TENDING TO BREAK UP WITH SUNSET...
THOUGH SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND WESTERN AREAS AS THEY MOVE E OUT OF NY STATE. ALSO NOTING
BANDS OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING UP THE COAST INTO S COASTAL AREAS
WHICH WILL HANG IN THERE AT LEAST FOR SEVERAL HOURS...THEN SHOULD
SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.

W-NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE.

FORECAST APPEARS TO BE PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK...BUT HAVE UPDATED
NEAR TERM INFO TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...
TEMPS WILL FALL MODESTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH WINDS DECOUPLING...
CLOUDS ERODING AND A DRY AIRMASS WITH DEWPTS IN THE 50S. SO QUITE
COMFORTABLE TONIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE 50S! THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE COAST WITH
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

GIVEN THE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER
MET AND MAV MOS TEMP DATA SETS. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG
POSSIBLE ACROSS W MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

FRIDAY...

ANOTHER GEM OF A DAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO NEW ENG WITH
SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD SOME DECORATIVE SCATTERED DIURNAL CU
BUT SHOULD STILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. MAX
TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SEABREEZES DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S...SO REMAINING VERY
COMFORTABLE. ENJOY!

FRI NIGHT...

ANOTHER COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD YIELDING
LIGHT WINDS/MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH A DRY AIRMASS WITH DEW
PTS IN THE 50S. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF MIN TEMPS IN
THE 50S...WITH LOW TO MID 60S IN THE URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE
COAST. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOW LYING
AREAS AND VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS
  WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUSLY HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS E ACROSS THE NORTHERN
  TIER DURING THE WORK WEEK

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SEEN WITH THE GENERAL SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. CONTINUE TO NOTE SOME PASSING SHORT WAVES IN THE GENERAL
FLOW MAINLY AROUND THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME...THOUGH TIMING IS
IN QUESTION DUE TO HOW EACH INDIVIDUAL MODELS HANDLES THEM. WITH
HIGH PRES AND SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS ANOMALOUS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CANADA...WILL SEE RETURN TO SUMMER AND TRIPLE H CONDITIONS
FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS MOST AREAS BEGIN THEIR SCHOOL
YEARS.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH ALSO MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC LATE IN THE PERIOD
/WED AND THU/ SO...IN COMBINATION WITH BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC...MAY SEE A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
TRY TO WORK DOWN THE COAST OUT OF MAINE. NOTED THIS FEATURE ON
WEDNESDAY/S OP MODEL RUNS...AND RATHER GOOD CONSISTENCY SEEN ON
TODAY/S RUNS AS WELL ESPECIALLY THIS FAR OUT. HOWEVER...APPEARS
THIS FRONT WASHES OUT QUICKLY...WHILE THE OVERALL HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGING LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LARGE HIGH PRES ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT TO S-SW DURING THE DAY
AND WILL PICK UP A BIT MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST. WEAK SEA BREEZES
LOOK TO KICK IN ALONG THE E COASTAL BEACHES. TEMPS WILL RISE TO
THE LOWER- MID 80S BUT DEWPTS REMAIN COMFORTABLE AWAY FROM THE
COAST...MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
60S WITH A FEW UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS OF N CENTRAL
AND W MA.

MIGHT SEE SOME LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORMALLY
PRONE INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WELL AS NEAR THE COAST AS DEWPTS SLOWLY
INCREASE.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DIVERGENCE IN MODEL GUIDANCE WORKS IN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH
TIMING ISSUES AMONGST INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS ON HOW THEY HANDLE
WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING ALONG IN THE UPPER FLOW. DO NOTE THAT THE
H5 CUTOFF PROGRESSIVE LOW HAS FLATTENED OUT ON THE 12Z MODEL
SUITE. HOWEVER...GFS AND NAM BOTH RATHER ROBUST IN BRINGING SOME
PRECIP INTO THE REGION DURING SUN/MON TIMEFRAME...WHILE THE ECMWF
AND GGEM REMAIN MAINLY DRY. WITH STRONG RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE IN
PLACE... STUCK WITH A DRY FORECAST.

AS S-SW WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED...WILL SEE A RETURN OF HIGHER
HUMIDITIES AS WELL AS TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS BOTH
MON AND TUE RUNNING AS MUCH AS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 80S. A FEW SPOTS MAY
SEE READINGS INTO THE LOWER 90S.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NOTING THE 12Z GGEM HAS BECOME AN OUTLIER AS IT TRIES TO BRING TS
ERIKA UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP
A WEAKER VERSION DOWN AROUND THE NORTHERN FLORIDA OR GEORGIA
COAST. THIS WAS SIMILAR TO MODEL ENSEMBLES SO WENT ALONG WITH
THIS.

WILL REMAIN HAZY...HOT AND HUMID ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EXCEPT COOLER ALONG THE S COAST WITH
ONSHORE WINDS. LOOKS TO BE A VERY SULTRY DAY.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MAY SEE BACKDOOR FRONT TRY TO WORK SWWD OUT
OF MAINE DURING THURSDAY. HAVE PUT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THU/THU NIGHT...THOUGH TIMING IS IN QUESTION THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED MVFR-IFR AROUND OR AFTER 06Z IN PATCHY
FOG IN INTERIOR VALLEYS. HIGH CONFIDENCE EXCEPT LOWER IN AREAL
COVERAGE OF FOG.

FRIDAY/FRI NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. ISOLATED MVFR POSSIBLE
IN LATE NIGHT FOG INTERIOR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE PATCHY
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS NORMALLY
PRONE INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WELL AS NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
GENERALLY W/NW FLOW BUT WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS FRI AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP. ONLY
WRINKLE IS A LEFTOVER EASTERLY SWELL OF 3 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE
WATERS EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE GOOD VSBY/LIGHT
WINDS AND DRY WEATHER PROVIDE FABULOUS LATE SUMMER BOATING
WEATHER.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SW WIND GUSTS APPROACH 20 KT SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/EVT
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 272331
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
731 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE AS THE HIGH
STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE. HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR A GOOD PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

725 PM UPDATE...
DIURNAL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TENDING TO BREAK UP WITH SUNSET...
THOUGH SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND WESTERN AREAS AS THEY MOVE E OUT OF NY STATE. ALSO NOTING
BANDS OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING UP THE COAST INTO S COASTAL AREAS
WHICH WILL HANG IN THERE AT LEAST FOR SEVERAL HOURS...THEN SHOULD
SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.

W-NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE.

FORECAST APPEARS TO BE PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK...BUT HAVE UPDATED
NEAR TERM INFO TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...
TEMPS WILL FALL MODESTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH WINDS DECOUPLING...
CLOUDS ERODING AND A DRY AIRMASS WITH DEWPTS IN THE 50S. SO QUITE
COMFORTABLE TONIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE 50S! THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE COAST WITH
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

GIVEN THE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER
MET AND MAV MOS TEMP DATA SETS. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG
POSSIBLE ACROSS W MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

FRIDAY...

ANOTHER GEM OF A DAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO NEW ENG WITH
SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD SOME DECORATIVE SCATTERED DIURNAL CU
BUT SHOULD STILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. MAX
TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SEABREEZES DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S...SO REMAINING VERY
COMFORTABLE. ENJOY!

FRI NIGHT...

ANOTHER COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD YIELDING
LIGHT WINDS/MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH A DRY AIRMASS WITH DEW
PTS IN THE 50S. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF MIN TEMPS IN
THE 50S...WITH LOW TO MID 60S IN THE URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE
COAST. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOW LYING
AREAS AND VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS
  WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUSLY HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS E ACROSS THE NORTHERN
  TIER DURING THE WORK WEEK

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SEEN WITH THE GENERAL SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. CONTINUE TO NOTE SOME PASSING SHORT WAVES IN THE GENERAL
FLOW MAINLY AROUND THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME...THOUGH TIMING IS
IN QUESTION DUE TO HOW EACH INDIVIDUAL MODELS HANDLES THEM. WITH
HIGH PRES AND SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS ANOMALOUS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CANADA...WILL SEE RETURN TO SUMMER AND TRIPLE H CONDITIONS
FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS MOST AREAS BEGIN THEIR SCHOOL
YEARS.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH ALSO MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC LATE IN THE PERIOD
/WED AND THU/ SO...IN COMBINATION WITH BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC...MAY SEE A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
TRY TO WORK DOWN THE COAST OUT OF MAINE. NOTED THIS FEATURE ON
WEDNESDAY/S OP MODEL RUNS...AND RATHER GOOD CONSISTENCY SEEN ON
TODAY/S RUNS AS WELL ESPECIALLY THIS FAR OUT. HOWEVER...APPEARS
THIS FRONT WASHES OUT QUICKLY...WHILE THE OVERALL HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGING LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LARGE HIGH PRES ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT TO S-SW DURING THE DAY
AND WILL PICK UP A BIT MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST. WEAK SEA BREEZES
LOOK TO KICK IN ALONG THE E COASTAL BEACHES. TEMPS WILL RISE TO
THE LOWER- MID 80S BUT DEWPTS REMAIN COMFORTABLE AWAY FROM THE
COAST...MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
60S WITH A FEW UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS OF N CENTRAL
AND W MA.

MIGHT SEE SOME LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORMALLY
PRONE INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WELL AS NEAR THE COAST AS DEWPTS SLOWLY
INCREASE.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DIVERGENCE IN MODEL GUIDANCE WORKS IN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH
TIMING ISSUES AMONGST INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS ON HOW THEY HANDLE
WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING ALONG IN THE UPPER FLOW. DO NOTE THAT THE
H5 CUTOFF PROGRESSIVE LOW HAS FLATTENED OUT ON THE 12Z MODEL
SUITE. HOWEVER...GFS AND NAM BOTH RATHER ROBUST IN BRINGING SOME
PRECIP INTO THE REGION DURING SUN/MON TIMEFRAME...WHILE THE ECMWF
AND GGEM REMAIN MAINLY DRY. WITH STRONG RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE IN
PLACE... STUCK WITH A DRY FORECAST.

AS S-SW WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED...WILL SEE A RETURN OF HIGHER
HUMIDITIES AS WELL AS TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS BOTH
MON AND TUE RUNNING AS MUCH AS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 80S. A FEW SPOTS MAY
SEE READINGS INTO THE LOWER 90S.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NOTING THE 12Z GGEM HAS BECOME AN OUTLIER AS IT TRIES TO BRING TS
ERIKA UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP
A WEAKER VERSION DOWN AROUND THE NORTHERN FLORIDA OR GEORGIA
COAST. THIS WAS SIMILAR TO MODEL ENSEMBLES SO WENT ALONG WITH
THIS.

WILL REMAIN HAZY...HOT AND HUMID ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EXCEPT COOLER ALONG THE S COAST WITH
ONSHORE WINDS. LOOKS TO BE A VERY SULTRY DAY.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MAY SEE BACKDOOR FRONT TRY TO WORK SWWD OUT
OF MAINE DURING THURSDAY. HAVE PUT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THU/THU NIGHT...THOUGH TIMING IS IN QUESTION THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED MVFR-IFR AROUND OR AFTER 06Z IN PATCHY
FOG IN INTERIOR VALLEYS. HIGH CONFIDENCE EXCEPT LOWER IN AREAL
COVERAGE OF FOG.

FRIDAY/FRI NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. ISOLATED MVFR POSSIBLE
IN LATE NIGHT FOG INTERIOR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE PATCHY
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS NORMALLY
PRONE INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WELL AS NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
GENERALLY W/NW FLOW BUT WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS FRI AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP. ONLY
WRINKLE IS A LEFTOVER EASTERLY SWELL OF 3 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE
WATERS EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE GOOD VSBY/LIGHT
WINDS AND DRY WEATHER PROVIDE FABULOUS LATE SUMMER BOATING
WEATHER.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SW WIND GUSTS APPROACH 20 KT SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/EVT
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 272026
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
426 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE AS THE HIGH
STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE. HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR A GOOD PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
4 PM UPDATE...

EARLY THIS EVENING...

COLD AIR ADVECTION/POST FRONTAL STRATO-CU CONTINUES TO OBSCURE THE
SUN AT TIMES ACROSS THE REGION. IN FACT THE COLD AIR ALOFT /ABOUT
-1 STD DEVIATION COLDER THAN CLIMO AT 850 MB AND 700 MB/ COMBINED
WITH GREAT LAKES WATER TEMPS AROUND 70F IS YIELDING A DELTA-T OF
ABOUT 15C FROM LAKE/SURFACE TO 850 MB. THIS IS SUFFICIENT FOR LAKE
INDUCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY OF NY STATE INTO THE
ALBANY/CAPITAL REGION OF NY THIS AFTERNOON. SO NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR A STRAY SPRINKLE ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES INTO THE I-91
CORRIDOR OF WESTERN MA.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER PREVAILS WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS...
THEN CLEARING TOWARD SUNSET AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES.

OVERNIGHT...

TEMPS WILL FALL MODESTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH WINDS DECOUPLING...
CLOUDS ERODING AND A DRY AIRMASS WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S. SO QUITE
COMFORTABLE TONIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE 50S! THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE COAST WITH
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. GIVEN THE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER MET AND MAV MOS TEMP DATA
SETS. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS W MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...

ANOTHER GEM OF A DAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO NEW ENG WITH
SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD SOME DECORATIVE SCATTERED DIURNAL CU
BUT SHOULD STILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. MAX
TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SEABREEZES DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S...SO REMAINING VERY
COMFORTABLE. ENJOY!

FRI NIGHT...

ANOTHER COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD YIELDING
LIGHT WINDS/MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH A DRY AIRMASS WITH DEW
PTS IN THE 50S. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF MIN TEMPS IN
THE 50S...WITH LOW TO MID 60S IN THE URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE
COAST. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOW LYING
AREAS AND VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS
  WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUSLY HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS E ACROSS THE NORTHERN
  TIER DURING THE WORK WEEK

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SEEN WITH THE GENERAL SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. CONTINUE TO NOTE SOME PASSING SHORT WAVES IN THE GENERAL
FLOW MAINLY AROUND THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME...THOUGH TIMING IS
IN QUESTION DUE TO HOW EACH INDIVIDUAL MODELS HANDLES THEM. WITH
HIGH PRES AND SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS ANOMALOUS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CANADA...WILL SEE RETURN TO SUMMER AND TRIPLE H CONDITIONS
FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS MOST AREAS BEGIN THEIR SCHOOL
YEARS.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH ALSO MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC LATE IN THE PERIOD
/WED AND THU/ SO...IN COMBINATION WITH BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC...MAY SEE A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
TRY TO WORK DOWN THE COAST OUT OF MAINE. NOTED THIS FEATURE ON
WEDNESDAY/S OP MODEL RUNS...AND RATHER GOOD CONSISTENCY SEEN ON
TODAY/S RUNS AS WELL ESPECIALLY THIS FAR OUT. HOWEVER...APPEARS
THIS FRONT WASHES OUT QUICKLY...WHILE THE OVERALL HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGING LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LARGE HIGH PRES ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT TO S-SW DURING THE DAY
AND WILL PICK UP A BIT MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST. WEAK SEA BREEZES
LOOK TO KICK IN ALONG THE E COASTAL BEACHES. TEMPS WILL RISE TO
THE LOWER- MID 80S BUT DEWPTS REMAIN COMFORTABLE AWAY FROM THE
COAST...MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
60S WITH A FEW UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS OF N CENTRAL
AND W MA.

MIGHT SEE SOME LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORMALLY
PRONE INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WELL AS NEAR THE COAST AS DEWPTS SLOWLY
INCREASE.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DIVERGENCE IN MODEL GUIDANCE WORKS IN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH
TIMING ISSUES AMONGST INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS ON HOW THEY HANDLE
WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING ALONG IN THE UPPER FLOW. DO NOTE THAT THE
H5 CUTOFF PROGRESSIVE LOW HAS FLATTENED OUT ON THE 12Z MODEL
SUITE. HOWEVER...GFS AND NAM BOTH RATHER ROBUST IN BRINGING SOME
PRECIP INTO THE REGION DURING SUN/MON TIMEFRAME...WHILE THE ECMWF
AND GGEM REMAIN MAINLY DRY. WITH STRONG RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE IN
PLACE... STUCK WITH A DRY FORECAST.

AS S-SW WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED...WILL SEE A RETURN OF HIGHER
HUMIDITIES AS WELL AS TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS BOTH
MON AND TUE RUNNING AS MUCH AS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 80S. A FEW SPOTS MAY
SEE READINGS INTO THE LOWER 90S.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NOTING THE 12Z GGEM HAS BECOME AN OUTLIER AS IT TRIES TO BRING TS
ERIKA UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP
A WEAKER VERSION DOWN AROUND THE NORTHERN FLORIDA OR GEORGIA
COAST. THIS WAS SIMILAR TO MODEL ENSEMBLES SO WENT ALONG WITH
THIS.

WILL REMAIN HAZY...HOT AND HUMID ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EXCEPT COOLER ALONG THE S COAST WITH
ONSHORE WINDS. LOOKS TO BE A VERY SULTRY DAY.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MAY SEE BACKDOOR FRONT TRY TO WORK SWWD OUT
OF MAINE DURING THURSDAY. HAVE PUT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THU/THU NIGHT...THOUGH TIMING IS IN QUESTION THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH 00Z...VFR WITH CIGS BKN035-050. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AFTER 00Z...VFR WITH ISOLATED MVFR LATE IN PATCHY FOG IN INTERIOR
VALLEYS. HIGH CONFIDENCE EXCEPT LOWER IN AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG.

FRIDAY/FRI NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. ISOLATED MVFR POSSIBLE
IN LATE NIGHT FOG INTERIOR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE PATCHY
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS NORMALLY
PRONE INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WELL AS NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
GENERALLY W/NW FLOW BUT WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS FRI AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP. ONLY
WRINKLE IS A LEFTOVER EASTERLY SWELL OF 3 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE
WATERS EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE GOOD VSBY/LIGHT
WINDS AND DRY WEATHER PROVIDE FABULOUS LATE SUMMER BOATING
WEATHER.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SW WIND GUSTS APPROACH 20 KT SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 272026
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
426 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE AS THE HIGH
STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE. HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR A GOOD PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
4 PM UPDATE...

EARLY THIS EVENING...

COLD AIR ADVECTION/POST FRONTAL STRATO-CU CONTINUES TO OBSCURE THE
SUN AT TIMES ACROSS THE REGION. IN FACT THE COLD AIR ALOFT /ABOUT
-1 STD DEVIATION COLDER THAN CLIMO AT 850 MB AND 700 MB/ COMBINED
WITH GREAT LAKES WATER TEMPS AROUND 70F IS YIELDING A DELTA-T OF
ABOUT 15C FROM LAKE/SURFACE TO 850 MB. THIS IS SUFFICIENT FOR LAKE
INDUCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY OF NY STATE INTO THE
ALBANY/CAPITAL REGION OF NY THIS AFTERNOON. SO NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR A STRAY SPRINKLE ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES INTO THE I-91
CORRIDOR OF WESTERN MA.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER PREVAILS WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS...
THEN CLEARING TOWARD SUNSET AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES.

OVERNIGHT...

TEMPS WILL FALL MODESTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH WINDS DECOUPLING...
CLOUDS ERODING AND A DRY AIRMASS WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S. SO QUITE
COMFORTABLE TONIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE 50S! THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE COAST WITH
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. GIVEN THE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER MET AND MAV MOS TEMP DATA
SETS. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS W MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...

ANOTHER GEM OF A DAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO NEW ENG WITH
SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD SOME DECORATIVE SCATTERED DIURNAL CU
BUT SHOULD STILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. MAX
TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SEABREEZES DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S...SO REMAINING VERY
COMFORTABLE. ENJOY!

FRI NIGHT...

ANOTHER COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD YIELDING
LIGHT WINDS/MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH A DRY AIRMASS WITH DEW
PTS IN THE 50S. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF MIN TEMPS IN
THE 50S...WITH LOW TO MID 60S IN THE URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE
COAST. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOW LYING
AREAS AND VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS
  WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUSLY HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS E ACROSS THE NORTHERN
  TIER DURING THE WORK WEEK

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SEEN WITH THE GENERAL SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. CONTINUE TO NOTE SOME PASSING SHORT WAVES IN THE GENERAL
FLOW MAINLY AROUND THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME...THOUGH TIMING IS
IN QUESTION DUE TO HOW EACH INDIVIDUAL MODELS HANDLES THEM. WITH
HIGH PRES AND SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS ANOMALOUS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CANADA...WILL SEE RETURN TO SUMMER AND TRIPLE H CONDITIONS
FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS MOST AREAS BEGIN THEIR SCHOOL
YEARS.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH ALSO MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC LATE IN THE PERIOD
/WED AND THU/ SO...IN COMBINATION WITH BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC...MAY SEE A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
TRY TO WORK DOWN THE COAST OUT OF MAINE. NOTED THIS FEATURE ON
WEDNESDAY/S OP MODEL RUNS...AND RATHER GOOD CONSISTENCY SEEN ON
TODAY/S RUNS AS WELL ESPECIALLY THIS FAR OUT. HOWEVER...APPEARS
THIS FRONT WASHES OUT QUICKLY...WHILE THE OVERALL HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGING LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LARGE HIGH PRES ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT TO S-SW DURING THE DAY
AND WILL PICK UP A BIT MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST. WEAK SEA BREEZES
LOOK TO KICK IN ALONG THE E COASTAL BEACHES. TEMPS WILL RISE TO
THE LOWER- MID 80S BUT DEWPTS REMAIN COMFORTABLE AWAY FROM THE
COAST...MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
60S WITH A FEW UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS OF N CENTRAL
AND W MA.

MIGHT SEE SOME LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORMALLY
PRONE INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WELL AS NEAR THE COAST AS DEWPTS SLOWLY
INCREASE.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DIVERGENCE IN MODEL GUIDANCE WORKS IN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH
TIMING ISSUES AMONGST INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS ON HOW THEY HANDLE
WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING ALONG IN THE UPPER FLOW. DO NOTE THAT THE
H5 CUTOFF PROGRESSIVE LOW HAS FLATTENED OUT ON THE 12Z MODEL
SUITE. HOWEVER...GFS AND NAM BOTH RATHER ROBUST IN BRINGING SOME
PRECIP INTO THE REGION DURING SUN/MON TIMEFRAME...WHILE THE ECMWF
AND GGEM REMAIN MAINLY DRY. WITH STRONG RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE IN
PLACE... STUCK WITH A DRY FORECAST.

AS S-SW WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED...WILL SEE A RETURN OF HIGHER
HUMIDITIES AS WELL AS TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS BOTH
MON AND TUE RUNNING AS MUCH AS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 80S. A FEW SPOTS MAY
SEE READINGS INTO THE LOWER 90S.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NOTING THE 12Z GGEM HAS BECOME AN OUTLIER AS IT TRIES TO BRING TS
ERIKA UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP
A WEAKER VERSION DOWN AROUND THE NORTHERN FLORIDA OR GEORGIA
COAST. THIS WAS SIMILAR TO MODEL ENSEMBLES SO WENT ALONG WITH
THIS.

WILL REMAIN HAZY...HOT AND HUMID ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EXCEPT COOLER ALONG THE S COAST WITH
ONSHORE WINDS. LOOKS TO BE A VERY SULTRY DAY.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MAY SEE BACKDOOR FRONT TRY TO WORK SWWD OUT
OF MAINE DURING THURSDAY. HAVE PUT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THU/THU NIGHT...THOUGH TIMING IS IN QUESTION THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH 00Z...VFR WITH CIGS BKN035-050. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AFTER 00Z...VFR WITH ISOLATED MVFR LATE IN PATCHY FOG IN INTERIOR
VALLEYS. HIGH CONFIDENCE EXCEPT LOWER IN AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG.

FRIDAY/FRI NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. ISOLATED MVFR POSSIBLE
IN LATE NIGHT FOG INTERIOR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE PATCHY
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS NORMALLY
PRONE INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WELL AS NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
GENERALLY W/NW FLOW BUT WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS FRI AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP. ONLY
WRINKLE IS A LEFTOVER EASTERLY SWELL OF 3 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE
WATERS EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE GOOD VSBY/LIGHT
WINDS AND DRY WEATHER PROVIDE FABULOUS LATE SUMMER BOATING
WEATHER.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SW WIND GUSTS APPROACH 20 KT SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 272026
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
426 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE AS THE HIGH
STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE. HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR A GOOD PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
4 PM UPDATE...

EARLY THIS EVENING...

COLD AIR ADVECTION/POST FRONTAL STRATO-CU CONTINUES TO OBSCURE THE
SUN AT TIMES ACROSS THE REGION. IN FACT THE COLD AIR ALOFT /ABOUT
-1 STD DEVIATION COLDER THAN CLIMO AT 850 MB AND 700 MB/ COMBINED
WITH GREAT LAKES WATER TEMPS AROUND 70F IS YIELDING A DELTA-T OF
ABOUT 15C FROM LAKE/SURFACE TO 850 MB. THIS IS SUFFICIENT FOR LAKE
INDUCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY OF NY STATE INTO THE
ALBANY/CAPITAL REGION OF NY THIS AFTERNOON. SO NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR A STRAY SPRINKLE ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES INTO THE I-91
CORRIDOR OF WESTERN MA.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER PREVAILS WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS...
THEN CLEARING TOWARD SUNSET AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES.

OVERNIGHT...

TEMPS WILL FALL MODESTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH WINDS DECOUPLING...
CLOUDS ERODING AND A DRY AIRMASS WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S. SO QUITE
COMFORTABLE TONIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE 50S! THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE COAST WITH
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. GIVEN THE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER MET AND MAV MOS TEMP DATA
SETS. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS W MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...

ANOTHER GEM OF A DAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO NEW ENG WITH
SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD SOME DECORATIVE SCATTERED DIURNAL CU
BUT SHOULD STILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. MAX
TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SEABREEZES DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S...SO REMAINING VERY
COMFORTABLE. ENJOY!

FRI NIGHT...

ANOTHER COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD YIELDING
LIGHT WINDS/MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH A DRY AIRMASS WITH DEW
PTS IN THE 50S. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF MIN TEMPS IN
THE 50S...WITH LOW TO MID 60S IN THE URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE
COAST. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOW LYING
AREAS AND VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS
  WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUSLY HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS E ACROSS THE NORTHERN
  TIER DURING THE WORK WEEK

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SEEN WITH THE GENERAL SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. CONTINUE TO NOTE SOME PASSING SHORT WAVES IN THE GENERAL
FLOW MAINLY AROUND THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME...THOUGH TIMING IS
IN QUESTION DUE TO HOW EACH INDIVIDUAL MODELS HANDLES THEM. WITH
HIGH PRES AND SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS ANOMALOUS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CANADA...WILL SEE RETURN TO SUMMER AND TRIPLE H CONDITIONS
FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS MOST AREAS BEGIN THEIR SCHOOL
YEARS.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH ALSO MOVES ACROSS QUEBEC LATE IN THE PERIOD
/WED AND THU/ SO...IN COMBINATION WITH BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC...MAY SEE A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
TRY TO WORK DOWN THE COAST OUT OF MAINE. NOTED THIS FEATURE ON
WEDNESDAY/S OP MODEL RUNS...AND RATHER GOOD CONSISTENCY SEEN ON
TODAY/S RUNS AS WELL ESPECIALLY THIS FAR OUT. HOWEVER...APPEARS
THIS FRONT WASHES OUT QUICKLY...WHILE THE OVERALL HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGING LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LARGE HIGH PRES ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT TO S-SW DURING THE DAY
AND WILL PICK UP A BIT MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST. WEAK SEA BREEZES
LOOK TO KICK IN ALONG THE E COASTAL BEACHES. TEMPS WILL RISE TO
THE LOWER- MID 80S BUT DEWPTS REMAIN COMFORTABLE AWAY FROM THE
COAST...MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
60S WITH A FEW UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS OF N CENTRAL
AND W MA.

MIGHT SEE SOME LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORMALLY
PRONE INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WELL AS NEAR THE COAST AS DEWPTS SLOWLY
INCREASE.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DIVERGENCE IN MODEL GUIDANCE WORKS IN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH
TIMING ISSUES AMONGST INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS ON HOW THEY HANDLE
WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING ALONG IN THE UPPER FLOW. DO NOTE THAT THE
H5 CUTOFF PROGRESSIVE LOW HAS FLATTENED OUT ON THE 12Z MODEL
SUITE. HOWEVER...GFS AND NAM BOTH RATHER ROBUST IN BRINGING SOME
PRECIP INTO THE REGION DURING SUN/MON TIMEFRAME...WHILE THE ECMWF
AND GGEM REMAIN MAINLY DRY. WITH STRONG RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE IN
PLACE... STUCK WITH A DRY FORECAST.

AS S-SW WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED...WILL SEE A RETURN OF HIGHER
HUMIDITIES AS WELL AS TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS BOTH
MON AND TUE RUNNING AS MUCH AS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 80S. A FEW SPOTS MAY
SEE READINGS INTO THE LOWER 90S.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NOTING THE 12Z GGEM HAS BECOME AN OUTLIER AS IT TRIES TO BRING TS
ERIKA UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP
A WEAKER VERSION DOWN AROUND THE NORTHERN FLORIDA OR GEORGIA
COAST. THIS WAS SIMILAR TO MODEL ENSEMBLES SO WENT ALONG WITH
THIS.

WILL REMAIN HAZY...HOT AND HUMID ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EXCEPT COOLER ALONG THE S COAST WITH
ONSHORE WINDS. LOOKS TO BE A VERY SULTRY DAY.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MAY SEE BACKDOOR FRONT TRY TO WORK SWWD OUT
OF MAINE DURING THURSDAY. HAVE PUT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THU/THU NIGHT...THOUGH TIMING IS IN QUESTION THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THROUGH 00Z...VFR WITH CIGS BKN035-050. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AFTER 00Z...VFR WITH ISOLATED MVFR LATE IN PATCHY FOG IN INTERIOR
VALLEYS. HIGH CONFIDENCE EXCEPT LOWER IN AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG.

FRIDAY/FRI NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. ISOLATED MVFR POSSIBLE
IN LATE NIGHT FOG INTERIOR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE PATCHY
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS NORMALLY
PRONE INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WELL AS NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
GENERALLY W/NW FLOW BUT WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS FRI AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP. ONLY
WRINKLE IS A LEFTOVER EASTERLY SWELL OF 3 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE
WATERS EAST OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE GOOD VSBY/LIGHT
WINDS AND DRY WEATHER PROVIDE FABULOUS LATE SUMMER BOATING
WEATHER.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SW WIND GUSTS APPROACH 20 KT SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 271943
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
343 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WITH A WARMING
TREND THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

4 PM UPDATE...

EARLY THIS EVENING...

COLD AIR ADVECTION/POST FRONTAL STRATO-CU CONTINUES TO OBSCURE THE
SUN AT TIMES ACROSS THE REGION. IN FACT THE COLD AIR ALOFT /ABOUT
-1 STD DEVIATION COLDER THAN CLIMO AT 850 MB AND 700 MB/ COMBINED
WITH GREAT LAKES WATER TEMPS AROUND 70F IS YIELDING A DELTA-T OF
ABOUT 15C FROM LAKE/SURFACE TO 850 MB. THIS IS SUFFICIENT FOR LAKE
INDUCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY OF NY STATE INTO THE
ALBANY/CAPITAL REGION OF NY THIS AFTERNOON. SO NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR A STRAY SPRINKLE ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES INTO THE I-91
CORRIDOR OF WESTERN MA.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER PREVAILS WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS...
THEN CLEARING TOWARD SUNSET AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES.

OVERNIGHT...

TEMPS WILL FALL MODESTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH WINDS DECOUPLING...
CLOUDS ERODING AND A DRY AIRMASS WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S. SO QUITE
COMFORTABLE TONIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE 50S! THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE COAST WITH
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. GIVEN THE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER MET AND MAV MOS TEMP DATA
SETS. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS W MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

FRIDAY...

ANOTHER GEM OF A DAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO NEW ENG WITH
SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD SOME DECORATIVE SCATTERED DIURNAL CU
BUT SHOULD STILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. MAX
TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SEABREEZES DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S...SO REMAINING VERY
COMFORTABLE. ENJOY!

FRI NIGHT...

ANOTHER COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD YIELDING
LIGHT WINDS/MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH A DRY AIRMASS WITH DEW
PTS IN THE 50S. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF MIN TEMPS IN
THE 50S...WITH LOW TO MID 60S IN THE URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE
COAST. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOW LYING
AREAS AND VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
HOWEVER GUIDANCE IS STILL HAVING ISSUES WITH UPPER PLAINS SHORTWAVE.
THE EC AMPLIFIES AND TURNS IT INTO A CUT-OFF LOW. FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL DELAY THE HEAT FOR NEXT WEEK BY A DAY OR TWO.
WHERE AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE STRETCHING THE WAVE OVER NEW
ENGLAND. REGARDLESS BERMUDA HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND HEAT OVER THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. BEYOND THE
PERIOD LARGE SIGNALS THAT THE RIDGE WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION HOWEVER THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF A SEA BREEZE SO COASTAL LOCATIONS MAY BE
WARM AS WELL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
WARMER ON THE SOUTH COASTLINE WHICH MAY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE DURING THIS PERIOD AS THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTIES ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/EC...BOTH
THE UKMET AND THE CANADIAN LEAN TOWARDS THE CUT-OFF LOW SCENARIO OF
THE EC. THE GEFS ARE ALSO NOT IN FULL SUPPORT OF THE GFS SO DECIDED
TO KEEP IT A DRY FORECAST ON SUNDAY. GUIDANCE IS ALSO INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIP AROUND TUES/WED...BUT BECAUSE
OF THE TIMING ISSUES AMONGST GUIDANCE DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TREND ABOVE AVERAGE STARTING ON SUNDAY AND
INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF SCHOOL FOR SOME. BOTH MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
ARE HINTING AT ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE SETS UP WE COULD SEE EITHER
U80S/L90S OR EVEN MID 90S FOR NEXT WEEK. IF THE AXIS IS WEST OF THE
AREA THEN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR POTENTIAL FOR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONTS OR EVEN REMNANTS OF MCS ARE POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
AS THIS IS AN IMPRESSIVE WARM SIGNAL FROM THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THRU 00Z...VFR WITH CIGS BKN035-050. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AFTER 00Z...VFR WITH ISOLATED MVFR LATE IN PATCHY FOG IN INTERIOR
VALLEYS. HIGH CONFIDENCE EXCEPT LOWER IN AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG.

FRIDAY/FRI NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. ISOLATED MVFR POSSIBLE
IN LATE NIGHT FOG INTERIOR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SAT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
GENERALLY W/NW FLOW BUT WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS FRI AFTERNOON AS SEABEEZES DEVELOP. ONLY WRINKLE
IS A LEFTOVER EASTERLY SWELL OF 3 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE WATERS EAST
OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE GOOD VSBY/LIGHT WINDS AND DRY
WEATHER PROVIDE FABULOUS LATE SUMMER BOATING WEATHER.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKS TO BUILDING
HIGH PRES. WINDS OUT OF THE SW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF 20 KT GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 271943
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
343 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WITH A WARMING
TREND THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

4 PM UPDATE...

EARLY THIS EVENING...

COLD AIR ADVECTION/POST FRONTAL STRATO-CU CONTINUES TO OBSCURE THE
SUN AT TIMES ACROSS THE REGION. IN FACT THE COLD AIR ALOFT /ABOUT
-1 STD DEVIATION COLDER THAN CLIMO AT 850 MB AND 700 MB/ COMBINED
WITH GREAT LAKES WATER TEMPS AROUND 70F IS YIELDING A DELTA-T OF
ABOUT 15C FROM LAKE/SURFACE TO 850 MB. THIS IS SUFFICIENT FOR LAKE
INDUCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY OF NY STATE INTO THE
ALBANY/CAPITAL REGION OF NY THIS AFTERNOON. SO NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR A STRAY SPRINKLE ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES INTO THE I-91
CORRIDOR OF WESTERN MA.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER PREVAILS WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS...
THEN CLEARING TOWARD SUNSET AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES.

OVERNIGHT...

TEMPS WILL FALL MODESTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH WINDS DECOUPLING...
CLOUDS ERODING AND A DRY AIRMASS WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S. SO QUITE
COMFORTABLE TONIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE 50S! THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE COAST WITH
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. GIVEN THE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER MET AND MAV MOS TEMP DATA
SETS. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS W MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

FRIDAY...

ANOTHER GEM OF A DAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO NEW ENG WITH
SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD SOME DECORATIVE SCATTERED DIURNAL CU
BUT SHOULD STILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. MAX
TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SEABREEZES DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S...SO REMAINING VERY
COMFORTABLE. ENJOY!

FRI NIGHT...

ANOTHER COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD YIELDING
LIGHT WINDS/MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH A DRY AIRMASS WITH DEW
PTS IN THE 50S. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF MIN TEMPS IN
THE 50S...WITH LOW TO MID 60S IN THE URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE
COAST. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOW LYING
AREAS AND VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
HOWEVER GUIDANCE IS STILL HAVING ISSUES WITH UPPER PLAINS SHORTWAVE.
THE EC AMPLIFIES AND TURNS IT INTO A CUT-OFF LOW. FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL DELAY THE HEAT FOR NEXT WEEK BY A DAY OR TWO.
WHERE AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE STRETCHING THE WAVE OVER NEW
ENGLAND. REGARDLESS BERMUDA HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND HEAT OVER THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. BEYOND THE
PERIOD LARGE SIGNALS THAT THE RIDGE WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION HOWEVER THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF A SEA BREEZE SO COASTAL LOCATIONS MAY BE
WARM AS WELL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
WARMER ON THE SOUTH COASTLINE WHICH MAY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE DURING THIS PERIOD AS THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTIES ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/EC...BOTH
THE UKMET AND THE CANADIAN LEAN TOWARDS THE CUT-OFF LOW SCENARIO OF
THE EC. THE GEFS ARE ALSO NOT IN FULL SUPPORT OF THE GFS SO DECIDED
TO KEEP IT A DRY FORECAST ON SUNDAY. GUIDANCE IS ALSO INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIP AROUND TUES/WED...BUT BECAUSE
OF THE TIMING ISSUES AMONGST GUIDANCE DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TREND ABOVE AVERAGE STARTING ON SUNDAY AND
INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF SCHOOL FOR SOME. BOTH MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
ARE HINTING AT ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE SETS UP WE COULD SEE EITHER
U80S/L90S OR EVEN MID 90S FOR NEXT WEEK. IF THE AXIS IS WEST OF THE
AREA THEN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR POTENTIAL FOR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONTS OR EVEN REMNANTS OF MCS ARE POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
AS THIS IS AN IMPRESSIVE WARM SIGNAL FROM THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THRU 00Z...VFR WITH CIGS BKN035-050. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AFTER 00Z...VFR WITH ISOLATED MVFR LATE IN PATCHY FOG IN INTERIOR
VALLEYS. HIGH CONFIDENCE EXCEPT LOWER IN AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG.

FRIDAY/FRI NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. ISOLATED MVFR POSSIBLE
IN LATE NIGHT FOG INTERIOR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SAT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
GENERALLY W/NW FLOW BUT WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS FRI AFTERNOON AS SEABEEZES DEVELOP. ONLY WRINKLE
IS A LEFTOVER EASTERLY SWELL OF 3 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE WATERS EAST
OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE GOOD VSBY/LIGHT WINDS AND DRY
WEATHER PROVIDE FABULOUS LATE SUMMER BOATING WEATHER.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKS TO BUILDING
HIGH PRES. WINDS OUT OF THE SW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF 20 KT GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 271943
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
343 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WITH A WARMING
TREND THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

4 PM UPDATE...

EARLY THIS EVENING...

COLD AIR ADVECTION/POST FRONTAL STRATO-CU CONTINUES TO OBSCURE THE
SUN AT TIMES ACROSS THE REGION. IN FACT THE COLD AIR ALOFT /ABOUT
-1 STD DEVIATION COLDER THAN CLIMO AT 850 MB AND 700 MB/ COMBINED
WITH GREAT LAKES WATER TEMPS AROUND 70F IS YIELDING A DELTA-T OF
ABOUT 15C FROM LAKE/SURFACE TO 850 MB. THIS IS SUFFICIENT FOR LAKE
INDUCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY OF NY STATE INTO THE
ALBANY/CAPITAL REGION OF NY THIS AFTERNOON. SO NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR A STRAY SPRINKLE ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES INTO THE I-91
CORRIDOR OF WESTERN MA.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER PREVAILS WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS...
THEN CLEARING TOWARD SUNSET AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES.

OVERNIGHT...

TEMPS WILL FALL MODESTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH WINDS DECOUPLING...
CLOUDS ERODING AND A DRY AIRMASS WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S. SO QUITE
COMFORTABLE TONIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE 50S! THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE COAST WITH
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. GIVEN THE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER MET AND MAV MOS TEMP DATA
SETS. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS W MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

FRIDAY...

ANOTHER GEM OF A DAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO NEW ENG WITH
SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD SOME DECORATIVE SCATTERED DIURNAL CU
BUT SHOULD STILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. MAX
TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SEABREEZES DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S...SO REMAINING VERY
COMFORTABLE. ENJOY!

FRI NIGHT...

ANOTHER COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD YIELDING
LIGHT WINDS/MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH A DRY AIRMASS WITH DEW
PTS IN THE 50S. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF MIN TEMPS IN
THE 50S...WITH LOW TO MID 60S IN THE URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE
COAST. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOW LYING
AREAS AND VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
HOWEVER GUIDANCE IS STILL HAVING ISSUES WITH UPPER PLAINS SHORTWAVE.
THE EC AMPLIFIES AND TURNS IT INTO A CUT-OFF LOW. FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL DELAY THE HEAT FOR NEXT WEEK BY A DAY OR TWO.
WHERE AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE STRETCHING THE WAVE OVER NEW
ENGLAND. REGARDLESS BERMUDA HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND HEAT OVER THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. BEYOND THE
PERIOD LARGE SIGNALS THAT THE RIDGE WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION HOWEVER THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF A SEA BREEZE SO COASTAL LOCATIONS MAY BE
WARM AS WELL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
WARMER ON THE SOUTH COASTLINE WHICH MAY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE DURING THIS PERIOD AS THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTIES ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/EC...BOTH
THE UKMET AND THE CANADIAN LEAN TOWARDS THE CUT-OFF LOW SCENARIO OF
THE EC. THE GEFS ARE ALSO NOT IN FULL SUPPORT OF THE GFS SO DECIDED
TO KEEP IT A DRY FORECAST ON SUNDAY. GUIDANCE IS ALSO INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIP AROUND TUES/WED...BUT BECAUSE
OF THE TIMING ISSUES AMONGST GUIDANCE DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TREND ABOVE AVERAGE STARTING ON SUNDAY AND
INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF SCHOOL FOR SOME. BOTH MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
ARE HINTING AT ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE SETS UP WE COULD SEE EITHER
U80S/L90S OR EVEN MID 90S FOR NEXT WEEK. IF THE AXIS IS WEST OF THE
AREA THEN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR POTENTIAL FOR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONTS OR EVEN REMNANTS OF MCS ARE POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
AS THIS IS AN IMPRESSIVE WARM SIGNAL FROM THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THRU 00Z...VFR WITH CIGS BKN035-050. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AFTER 00Z...VFR WITH ISOLATED MVFR LATE IN PATCHY FOG IN INTERIOR
VALLEYS. HIGH CONFIDENCE EXCEPT LOWER IN AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG.

FRIDAY/FRI NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. ISOLATED MVFR POSSIBLE
IN LATE NIGHT FOG INTERIOR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SAT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
GENERALLY W/NW FLOW BUT WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS FRI AFTERNOON AS SEABEEZES DEVELOP. ONLY WRINKLE
IS A LEFTOVER EASTERLY SWELL OF 3 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE WATERS EAST
OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE GOOD VSBY/LIGHT WINDS AND DRY
WEATHER PROVIDE FABULOUS LATE SUMMER BOATING WEATHER.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKS TO BUILDING
HIGH PRES. WINDS OUT OF THE SW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF 20 KT GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 271943
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
343 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WITH A WARMING
TREND THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

4 PM UPDATE...

EARLY THIS EVENING...

COLD AIR ADVECTION/POST FRONTAL STRATO-CU CONTINUES TO OBSCURE THE
SUN AT TIMES ACROSS THE REGION. IN FACT THE COLD AIR ALOFT /ABOUT
-1 STD DEVIATION COLDER THAN CLIMO AT 850 MB AND 700 MB/ COMBINED
WITH GREAT LAKES WATER TEMPS AROUND 70F IS YIELDING A DELTA-T OF
ABOUT 15C FROM LAKE/SURFACE TO 850 MB. THIS IS SUFFICIENT FOR LAKE
INDUCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY OF NY STATE INTO THE
ALBANY/CAPITAL REGION OF NY THIS AFTERNOON. SO NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR A STRAY SPRINKLE ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES INTO THE I-91
CORRIDOR OF WESTERN MA.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER PREVAILS WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS...
THEN CLEARING TOWARD SUNSET AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES.

OVERNIGHT...

TEMPS WILL FALL MODESTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH WINDS DECOUPLING...
CLOUDS ERODING AND A DRY AIRMASS WITH DEW PTS IN THE 50S. SO QUITE
COMFORTABLE TONIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE 50S! THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE COAST WITH
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. GIVEN THE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER MET AND MAV MOS TEMP DATA
SETS. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS W MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

FRIDAY...

ANOTHER GEM OF A DAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO NEW ENG WITH
SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD SOME DECORATIVE SCATTERED DIURNAL CU
BUT SHOULD STILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. MAX
TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SEABREEZES DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S...SO REMAINING VERY
COMFORTABLE. ENJOY!

FRI NIGHT...

ANOTHER COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD YIELDING
LIGHT WINDS/MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH A DRY AIRMASS WITH DEW
PTS IN THE 50S. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF MIN TEMPS IN
THE 50S...WITH LOW TO MID 60S IN THE URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE
COAST. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOW LYING
AREAS AND VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
HOWEVER GUIDANCE IS STILL HAVING ISSUES WITH UPPER PLAINS SHORTWAVE.
THE EC AMPLIFIES AND TURNS IT INTO A CUT-OFF LOW. FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL DELAY THE HEAT FOR NEXT WEEK BY A DAY OR TWO.
WHERE AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE STRETCHING THE WAVE OVER NEW
ENGLAND. REGARDLESS BERMUDA HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND HEAT OVER THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. BEYOND THE
PERIOD LARGE SIGNALS THAT THE RIDGE WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION HOWEVER THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF A SEA BREEZE SO COASTAL LOCATIONS MAY BE
WARM AS WELL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
WARMER ON THE SOUTH COASTLINE WHICH MAY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE DURING THIS PERIOD AS THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTIES ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/EC...BOTH
THE UKMET AND THE CANADIAN LEAN TOWARDS THE CUT-OFF LOW SCENARIO OF
THE EC. THE GEFS ARE ALSO NOT IN FULL SUPPORT OF THE GFS SO DECIDED
TO KEEP IT A DRY FORECAST ON SUNDAY. GUIDANCE IS ALSO INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIP AROUND TUES/WED...BUT BECAUSE
OF THE TIMING ISSUES AMONGST GUIDANCE DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TREND ABOVE AVERAGE STARTING ON SUNDAY AND
INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF SCHOOL FOR SOME. BOTH MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
ARE HINTING AT ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE SETS UP WE COULD SEE EITHER
U80S/L90S OR EVEN MID 90S FOR NEXT WEEK. IF THE AXIS IS WEST OF THE
AREA THEN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR POTENTIAL FOR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONTS OR EVEN REMNANTS OF MCS ARE POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
AS THIS IS AN IMPRESSIVE WARM SIGNAL FROM THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THRU 00Z...VFR WITH CIGS BKN035-050. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AFTER 00Z...VFR WITH ISOLATED MVFR LATE IN PATCHY FOG IN INTERIOR
VALLEYS. HIGH CONFIDENCE EXCEPT LOWER IN AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG.

FRIDAY/FRI NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. ISOLATED MVFR POSSIBLE
IN LATE NIGHT FOG INTERIOR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SAT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
GENERALLY W/NW FLOW BUT WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS FRI AFTERNOON AS SEABEEZES DEVELOP. ONLY WRINKLE
IS A LEFTOVER EASTERLY SWELL OF 3 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE WATERS EAST
OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE GOOD VSBY/LIGHT WINDS AND DRY
WEATHER PROVIDE FABULOUS LATE SUMMER BOATING WEATHER.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKS TO BUILDING
HIGH PRES. WINDS OUT OF THE SW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF 20 KT GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 271753
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
153 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WITH A WARMING
TREND THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

2 PM UPDATE...

COLD AIR ADVECTION/POST FRONTAL STRATO-CU A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD
THAN PREVIOUS THOUGHT. THUS HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN OUR
FORECAST DATABASE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. IN FACT THE COLD
AIR ALOFT /ABOUT -1 STD DEVIATION COLDER THAN CLIMO AT 850 MB AND
700 MB/ COMBINED WITH LAKE TEMPS AROUND 70F IS YIELDING A DELTA-T
OF ABOUT 15C FROM LAKE/SURFACE TO 850 MB. THIS IS SUFFICIENT FOR
LAKE INDUCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY OF NY STATE INTO
THE ALBANY/CAPITAL REGION OF NY THIS AFTERNOON. SO NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR A STRAY SPRINKLE ACROS THE BERKSHIRES INTO THE I-91
CORRIDOR OF WESTERN MA.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER PREVAILS WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS...
THEN CLEARING TOWARD SUNSET AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES. VERY
PLEASANT TEMPS CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S /M70S HIGH
TERRAIN/ AND DEW PTS IN THE 50S PROVIDING COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. WITH DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL RESULT IN A COOL NIGHT WITH MINS MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH SOME
UPPER 40S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW MA. MILDER LOWER 60S URBAN
CENTER OF BOS AND OUTER CAPE/ACK. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG
POSSIBLE ACROSS W MA.

FRIDAY...
A BEAUTIFUL DAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO NEW ENG WITH SUNSHINE AND
LIGHT WINDS. MAX TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SEABREEZES
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
HOWEVER GUIDANCE IS STILL HAVING ISSUES WITH UPPER PLAINS SHORTWAVE.
THE EC AMPLIFIES AND TURNS IT INTO A CUT-OFF LOW. FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL DELAY THE HEAT FOR NEXT WEEK BY A DAY OR TWO.
WHERE AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE STRETCHING THE WAVE OVER NEW
ENGLAND. REGARDLESS BERMUDA HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND HEAT OVER THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. BEYOND THE
PERIOD LARGE SIGNALS THAT THE RIDGE WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION HOWEVER THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF A SEA BREEZE SO COASTAL LOCATIONS MAY BE
WARM AS WELL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
WARMER ON THE SOUTH COASTLINE WHICH MAY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE DURING THIS PERIOD AS THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTIES ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/EC...BOTH
THE UKMET AND THE CANADIAN LEAN TOWARDS THE CUT-OFF LOW SCENARIO OF
THE EC. THE GEFS ARE ALSO NOT IN FULL SUPPORT OF THE GFS SO DECIDED
TO KEEP IT A DRY FORECAST ON SUNDAY. GUIDANCE IS ALSO INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIP AROUND TUES/WED...BUT BECAUSE
OF THE TIMING ISSUES AMONGST GUIDANCE DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TREND ABOVE AVERAGE STARTING ON SUNDAY AND
INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF SCHOOL FOR SOME. BOTH MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
ARE HINTING AT ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE SETS UP WE COULD SEE EITHER
U80S/L90S OR EVEN MID 90S FOR NEXT WEEK. IF THE AXIS IS WEST OF THE
AREA THEN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR POTENTIAL FOR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONTS OR EVEN REMNANTS OF MCS ARE POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
AS THIS IS AN IMPRESSIVE WARM SIGNAL FROM THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THRU 00Z...VFR WITH CIGS BKN035-050. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AFTER 00Z...VFR WITH ISOLATED MVFR LATE IN PATCHY FOG IN INTERIOR
VALLEYS. HIGH CONFIDENCE EXCEPT LOWER IN AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG.

FRIDAY/FRI NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. ISOLATED MVFR POSSIBLE
IN LATE NIGHT FOG INTERIOR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SAT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

10 AM UPDATE...

ONLY WRINKLE TO THE FORECAST IS A PERSISTENT EAST SWELL OF AROUND
4 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS. THIS COMBINED WITH OFFSHORE WNW WINDS MAY
YIELD SOME CHOPPY SEAS AT TIMES FOR THE OCEAN WATERS. THEREFORE
HAVE INCREASED SEAS TO ABOUT 4 FT FOR THE WATERS EAST OF CAPE COD
AND NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
GENERALLY W/NW FLOW BUT WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AS
SEABEEZES DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKS TO BUILDING
HIGH PRES. WINDS OUT OF THE SW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF 20 KT GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/NOCERA/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 271753
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
153 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WITH A WARMING
TREND THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

2 PM UPDATE...

COLD AIR ADVECTION/POST FRONTAL STRATO-CU A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD
THAN PREVIOUS THOUGHT. THUS HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN OUR
FORECAST DATABASE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. IN FACT THE COLD
AIR ALOFT /ABOUT -1 STD DEVIATION COLDER THAN CLIMO AT 850 MB AND
700 MB/ COMBINED WITH LAKE TEMPS AROUND 70F IS YIELDING A DELTA-T
OF ABOUT 15C FROM LAKE/SURFACE TO 850 MB. THIS IS SUFFICIENT FOR
LAKE INDUCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY OF NY STATE INTO
THE ALBANY/CAPITAL REGION OF NY THIS AFTERNOON. SO NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR A STRAY SPRINKLE ACROS THE BERKSHIRES INTO THE I-91
CORRIDOR OF WESTERN MA.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER PREVAILS WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS...
THEN CLEARING TOWARD SUNSET AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES. VERY
PLEASANT TEMPS CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S /M70S HIGH
TERRAIN/ AND DEW PTS IN THE 50S PROVIDING COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. WITH DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL RESULT IN A COOL NIGHT WITH MINS MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH SOME
UPPER 40S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW MA. MILDER LOWER 60S URBAN
CENTER OF BOS AND OUTER CAPE/ACK. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG
POSSIBLE ACROSS W MA.

FRIDAY...
A BEAUTIFUL DAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO NEW ENG WITH SUNSHINE AND
LIGHT WINDS. MAX TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SEABREEZES
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
HOWEVER GUIDANCE IS STILL HAVING ISSUES WITH UPPER PLAINS SHORTWAVE.
THE EC AMPLIFIES AND TURNS IT INTO A CUT-OFF LOW. FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL DELAY THE HEAT FOR NEXT WEEK BY A DAY OR TWO.
WHERE AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE STRETCHING THE WAVE OVER NEW
ENGLAND. REGARDLESS BERMUDA HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND HEAT OVER THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. BEYOND THE
PERIOD LARGE SIGNALS THAT THE RIDGE WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION HOWEVER THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF A SEA BREEZE SO COASTAL LOCATIONS MAY BE
WARM AS WELL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
WARMER ON THE SOUTH COASTLINE WHICH MAY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE DURING THIS PERIOD AS THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTIES ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/EC...BOTH
THE UKMET AND THE CANADIAN LEAN TOWARDS THE CUT-OFF LOW SCENARIO OF
THE EC. THE GEFS ARE ALSO NOT IN FULL SUPPORT OF THE GFS SO DECIDED
TO KEEP IT A DRY FORECAST ON SUNDAY. GUIDANCE IS ALSO INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIP AROUND TUES/WED...BUT BECAUSE
OF THE TIMING ISSUES AMONGST GUIDANCE DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TREND ABOVE AVERAGE STARTING ON SUNDAY AND
INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF SCHOOL FOR SOME. BOTH MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
ARE HINTING AT ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE SETS UP WE COULD SEE EITHER
U80S/L90S OR EVEN MID 90S FOR NEXT WEEK. IF THE AXIS IS WEST OF THE
AREA THEN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR POTENTIAL FOR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONTS OR EVEN REMNANTS OF MCS ARE POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
AS THIS IS AN IMPRESSIVE WARM SIGNAL FROM THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THRU 00Z...VFR WITH CIGS BKN035-050. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AFTER 00Z...VFR WITH ISOLATED MVFR LATE IN PATCHY FOG IN INTERIOR
VALLEYS. HIGH CONFIDENCE EXCEPT LOWER IN AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG.

FRIDAY/FRI NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. ISOLATED MVFR POSSIBLE
IN LATE NIGHT FOG INTERIOR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SAT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

10 AM UPDATE...

ONLY WRINKLE TO THE FORECAST IS A PERSISTENT EAST SWELL OF AROUND
4 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS. THIS COMBINED WITH OFFSHORE WNW WINDS MAY
YIELD SOME CHOPPY SEAS AT TIMES FOR THE OCEAN WATERS. THEREFORE
HAVE INCREASED SEAS TO ABOUT 4 FT FOR THE WATERS EAST OF CAPE COD
AND NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
GENERALLY W/NW FLOW BUT WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AS
SEABEEZES DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKS TO BUILDING
HIGH PRES. WINDS OUT OF THE SW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF 20 KT GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/NOCERA/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 271753
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
153 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WITH A WARMING
TREND THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

2 PM UPDATE...

COLD AIR ADVECTION/POST FRONTAL STRATO-CU A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD
THAN PREVIOUS THOUGHT. THUS HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN OUR
FORECAST DATABASE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. IN FACT THE COLD
AIR ALOFT /ABOUT -1 STD DEVIATION COLDER THAN CLIMO AT 850 MB AND
700 MB/ COMBINED WITH LAKE TEMPS AROUND 70F IS YIELDING A DELTA-T
OF ABOUT 15C FROM LAKE/SURFACE TO 850 MB. THIS IS SUFFICIENT FOR
LAKE INDUCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY OF NY STATE INTO
THE ALBANY/CAPITAL REGION OF NY THIS AFTERNOON. SO NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR A STRAY SPRINKLE ACROS THE BERKSHIRES INTO THE I-91
CORRIDOR OF WESTERN MA.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER PREVAILS WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS...
THEN CLEARING TOWARD SUNSET AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES. VERY
PLEASANT TEMPS CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S /M70S HIGH
TERRAIN/ AND DEW PTS IN THE 50S PROVIDING COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. WITH DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL RESULT IN A COOL NIGHT WITH MINS MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH SOME
UPPER 40S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW MA. MILDER LOWER 60S URBAN
CENTER OF BOS AND OUTER CAPE/ACK. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG
POSSIBLE ACROSS W MA.

FRIDAY...
A BEAUTIFUL DAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO NEW ENG WITH SUNSHINE AND
LIGHT WINDS. MAX TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SEABREEZES
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
HOWEVER GUIDANCE IS STILL HAVING ISSUES WITH UPPER PLAINS SHORTWAVE.
THE EC AMPLIFIES AND TURNS IT INTO A CUT-OFF LOW. FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL DELAY THE HEAT FOR NEXT WEEK BY A DAY OR TWO.
WHERE AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE STRETCHING THE WAVE OVER NEW
ENGLAND. REGARDLESS BERMUDA HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND HEAT OVER THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. BEYOND THE
PERIOD LARGE SIGNALS THAT THE RIDGE WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION HOWEVER THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF A SEA BREEZE SO COASTAL LOCATIONS MAY BE
WARM AS WELL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
WARMER ON THE SOUTH COASTLINE WHICH MAY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE DURING THIS PERIOD AS THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTIES ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/EC...BOTH
THE UKMET AND THE CANADIAN LEAN TOWARDS THE CUT-OFF LOW SCENARIO OF
THE EC. THE GEFS ARE ALSO NOT IN FULL SUPPORT OF THE GFS SO DECIDED
TO KEEP IT A DRY FORECAST ON SUNDAY. GUIDANCE IS ALSO INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIP AROUND TUES/WED...BUT BECAUSE
OF THE TIMING ISSUES AMONGST GUIDANCE DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TREND ABOVE AVERAGE STARTING ON SUNDAY AND
INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF SCHOOL FOR SOME. BOTH MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
ARE HINTING AT ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE SETS UP WE COULD SEE EITHER
U80S/L90S OR EVEN MID 90S FOR NEXT WEEK. IF THE AXIS IS WEST OF THE
AREA THEN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR POTENTIAL FOR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONTS OR EVEN REMNANTS OF MCS ARE POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
AS THIS IS AN IMPRESSIVE WARM SIGNAL FROM THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THRU 00Z...VFR WITH CIGS BKN035-050. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AFTER 00Z...VFR WITH ISOLATED MVFR LATE IN PATCHY FOG IN INTERIOR
VALLEYS. HIGH CONFIDENCE EXCEPT LOWER IN AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG.

FRIDAY/FRI NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. ISOLATED MVFR POSSIBLE
IN LATE NIGHT FOG INTERIOR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SAT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

10 AM UPDATE...

ONLY WRINKLE TO THE FORECAST IS A PERSISTENT EAST SWELL OF AROUND
4 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS. THIS COMBINED WITH OFFSHORE WNW WINDS MAY
YIELD SOME CHOPPY SEAS AT TIMES FOR THE OCEAN WATERS. THEREFORE
HAVE INCREASED SEAS TO ABOUT 4 FT FOR THE WATERS EAST OF CAPE COD
AND NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
GENERALLY W/NW FLOW BUT WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AS
SEABEEZES DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKS TO BUILDING
HIGH PRES. WINDS OUT OF THE SW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF 20 KT GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/NOCERA/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 271753
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
153 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WITH A WARMING
TREND THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

2 PM UPDATE...

COLD AIR ADVECTION/POST FRONTAL STRATO-CU A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD
THAN PREVIOUS THOUGHT. THUS HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN OUR
FORECAST DATABASE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. IN FACT THE COLD
AIR ALOFT /ABOUT -1 STD DEVIATION COLDER THAN CLIMO AT 850 MB AND
700 MB/ COMBINED WITH LAKE TEMPS AROUND 70F IS YIELDING A DELTA-T
OF ABOUT 15C FROM LAKE/SURFACE TO 850 MB. THIS IS SUFFICIENT FOR
LAKE INDUCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY OF NY STATE INTO
THE ALBANY/CAPITAL REGION OF NY THIS AFTERNOON. SO NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR A STRAY SPRINKLE ACROS THE BERKSHIRES INTO THE I-91
CORRIDOR OF WESTERN MA.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER PREVAILS WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS...
THEN CLEARING TOWARD SUNSET AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES. VERY
PLEASANT TEMPS CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S /M70S HIGH
TERRAIN/ AND DEW PTS IN THE 50S PROVIDING COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. WITH DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL RESULT IN A COOL NIGHT WITH MINS MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH SOME
UPPER 40S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW MA. MILDER LOWER 60S URBAN
CENTER OF BOS AND OUTER CAPE/ACK. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG
POSSIBLE ACROSS W MA.

FRIDAY...
A BEAUTIFUL DAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO NEW ENG WITH SUNSHINE AND
LIGHT WINDS. MAX TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SEABREEZES
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
HOWEVER GUIDANCE IS STILL HAVING ISSUES WITH UPPER PLAINS SHORTWAVE.
THE EC AMPLIFIES AND TURNS IT INTO A CUT-OFF LOW. FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL DELAY THE HEAT FOR NEXT WEEK BY A DAY OR TWO.
WHERE AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE STRETCHING THE WAVE OVER NEW
ENGLAND. REGARDLESS BERMUDA HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND HEAT OVER THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. BEYOND THE
PERIOD LARGE SIGNALS THAT THE RIDGE WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION HOWEVER THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF A SEA BREEZE SO COASTAL LOCATIONS MAY BE
WARM AS WELL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
WARMER ON THE SOUTH COASTLINE WHICH MAY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE DURING THIS PERIOD AS THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTIES ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/EC...BOTH
THE UKMET AND THE CANADIAN LEAN TOWARDS THE CUT-OFF LOW SCENARIO OF
THE EC. THE GEFS ARE ALSO NOT IN FULL SUPPORT OF THE GFS SO DECIDED
TO KEEP IT A DRY FORECAST ON SUNDAY. GUIDANCE IS ALSO INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIP AROUND TUES/WED...BUT BECAUSE
OF THE TIMING ISSUES AMONGST GUIDANCE DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TREND ABOVE AVERAGE STARTING ON SUNDAY AND
INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF SCHOOL FOR SOME. BOTH MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
ARE HINTING AT ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE SETS UP WE COULD SEE EITHER
U80S/L90S OR EVEN MID 90S FOR NEXT WEEK. IF THE AXIS IS WEST OF THE
AREA THEN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR POTENTIAL FOR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONTS OR EVEN REMNANTS OF MCS ARE POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
AS THIS IS AN IMPRESSIVE WARM SIGNAL FROM THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THRU 00Z...VFR WITH CIGS BKN035-050. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AFTER 00Z...VFR WITH ISOLATED MVFR LATE IN PATCHY FOG IN INTERIOR
VALLEYS. HIGH CONFIDENCE EXCEPT LOWER IN AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG.

FRIDAY/FRI NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. ISOLATED MVFR POSSIBLE
IN LATE NIGHT FOG INTERIOR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SAT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

10 AM UPDATE...

ONLY WRINKLE TO THE FORECAST IS A PERSISTENT EAST SWELL OF AROUND
4 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS. THIS COMBINED WITH OFFSHORE WNW WINDS MAY
YIELD SOME CHOPPY SEAS AT TIMES FOR THE OCEAN WATERS. THEREFORE
HAVE INCREASED SEAS TO ABOUT 4 FT FOR THE WATERS EAST OF CAPE COD
AND NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
GENERALLY W/NW FLOW BUT WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AS
SEABEEZES DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKS TO BUILDING
HIGH PRES. WINDS OUT OF THE SW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF 20 KT GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/NOCERA/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 271753
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
153 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WITH A WARMING
TREND THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

2 PM UPDATE...

COLD AIR ADVECTION/POST FRONTAL STRATO-CU A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD
THAN PREVIOUS THOUGHT. THUS HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN OUR
FORECAST DATABASE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. IN FACT THE COLD
AIR ALOFT /ABOUT -1 STD DEVIATION COLDER THAN CLIMO AT 850 MB AND
700 MB/ COMBINED WITH LAKE TEMPS AROUND 70F IS YIELDING A DELTA-T
OF ABOUT 15C FROM LAKE/SURFACE TO 850 MB. THIS IS SUFFICIENT FOR
LAKE INDUCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY OF NY STATE INTO
THE ALBANY/CAPITAL REGION OF NY THIS AFTERNOON. SO NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR A STRAY SPRINKLE ACROS THE BERKSHIRES INTO THE I-91
CORRIDOR OF WESTERN MA.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER PREVAILS WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS...
THEN CLEARING TOWARD SUNSET AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES. VERY
PLEASANT TEMPS CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S /M70S HIGH
TERRAIN/ AND DEW PTS IN THE 50S PROVIDING COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. WITH DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL RESULT IN A COOL NIGHT WITH MINS MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH SOME
UPPER 40S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW MA. MILDER LOWER 60S URBAN
CENTER OF BOS AND OUTER CAPE/ACK. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG
POSSIBLE ACROSS W MA.

FRIDAY...
A BEAUTIFUL DAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO NEW ENG WITH SUNSHINE AND
LIGHT WINDS. MAX TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SEABREEZES
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
HOWEVER GUIDANCE IS STILL HAVING ISSUES WITH UPPER PLAINS SHORTWAVE.
THE EC AMPLIFIES AND TURNS IT INTO A CUT-OFF LOW. FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL DELAY THE HEAT FOR NEXT WEEK BY A DAY OR TWO.
WHERE AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE STRETCHING THE WAVE OVER NEW
ENGLAND. REGARDLESS BERMUDA HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND HEAT OVER THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. BEYOND THE
PERIOD LARGE SIGNALS THAT THE RIDGE WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION HOWEVER THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF A SEA BREEZE SO COASTAL LOCATIONS MAY BE
WARM AS WELL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
WARMER ON THE SOUTH COASTLINE WHICH MAY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE DURING THIS PERIOD AS THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTIES ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/EC...BOTH
THE UKMET AND THE CANADIAN LEAN TOWARDS THE CUT-OFF LOW SCENARIO OF
THE EC. THE GEFS ARE ALSO NOT IN FULL SUPPORT OF THE GFS SO DECIDED
TO KEEP IT A DRY FORECAST ON SUNDAY. GUIDANCE IS ALSO INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIP AROUND TUES/WED...BUT BECAUSE
OF THE TIMING ISSUES AMONGST GUIDANCE DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TREND ABOVE AVERAGE STARTING ON SUNDAY AND
INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF SCHOOL FOR SOME. BOTH MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
ARE HINTING AT ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE SETS UP WE COULD SEE EITHER
U80S/L90S OR EVEN MID 90S FOR NEXT WEEK. IF THE AXIS IS WEST OF THE
AREA THEN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR POTENTIAL FOR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONTS OR EVEN REMNANTS OF MCS ARE POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
AS THIS IS AN IMPRESSIVE WARM SIGNAL FROM THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THRU 00Z...VFR WITH CIGS BKN035-050. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AFTER 00Z...VFR WITH ISOLATED MVFR LATE IN PATCHY FOG IN INTERIOR
VALLEYS. HIGH CONFIDENCE EXCEPT LOWER IN AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG.

FRIDAY/FRI NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. ISOLATED MVFR POSSIBLE
IN LATE NIGHT FOG INTERIOR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SAT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

10 AM UPDATE...

ONLY WRINKLE TO THE FORECAST IS A PERSISTENT EAST SWELL OF AROUND
4 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS. THIS COMBINED WITH OFFSHORE WNW WINDS MAY
YIELD SOME CHOPPY SEAS AT TIMES FOR THE OCEAN WATERS. THEREFORE
HAVE INCREASED SEAS TO ABOUT 4 FT FOR THE WATERS EAST OF CAPE COD
AND NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
GENERALLY W/NW FLOW BUT WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AS
SEABEEZES DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKS TO BUILDING
HIGH PRES. WINDS OUT OF THE SW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF 20 KT GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/NOCERA/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 271753
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
153 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WITH A WARMING
TREND THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

2 PM UPDATE...

COLD AIR ADVECTION/POST FRONTAL STRATO-CU A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD
THAN PREVIOUS THOUGHT. THUS HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN OUR
FORECAST DATABASE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. IN FACT THE COLD
AIR ALOFT /ABOUT -1 STD DEVIATION COLDER THAN CLIMO AT 850 MB AND
700 MB/ COMBINED WITH LAKE TEMPS AROUND 70F IS YIELDING A DELTA-T
OF ABOUT 15C FROM LAKE/SURFACE TO 850 MB. THIS IS SUFFICIENT FOR
LAKE INDUCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY OF NY STATE INTO
THE ALBANY/CAPITAL REGION OF NY THIS AFTERNOON. SO NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR A STRAY SPRINKLE ACROS THE BERKSHIRES INTO THE I-91
CORRIDOR OF WESTERN MA.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER PREVAILS WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS...
THEN CLEARING TOWARD SUNSET AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES. VERY
PLEASANT TEMPS CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S /M70S HIGH
TERRAIN/ AND DEW PTS IN THE 50S PROVIDING COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. WITH DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL RESULT IN A COOL NIGHT WITH MINS MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH SOME
UPPER 40S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW MA. MILDER LOWER 60S URBAN
CENTER OF BOS AND OUTER CAPE/ACK. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG
POSSIBLE ACROSS W MA.

FRIDAY...
A BEAUTIFUL DAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO NEW ENG WITH SUNSHINE AND
LIGHT WINDS. MAX TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SEABREEZES
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
HOWEVER GUIDANCE IS STILL HAVING ISSUES WITH UPPER PLAINS SHORTWAVE.
THE EC AMPLIFIES AND TURNS IT INTO A CUT-OFF LOW. FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL DELAY THE HEAT FOR NEXT WEEK BY A DAY OR TWO.
WHERE AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE STRETCHING THE WAVE OVER NEW
ENGLAND. REGARDLESS BERMUDA HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND HEAT OVER THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. BEYOND THE
PERIOD LARGE SIGNALS THAT THE RIDGE WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION HOWEVER THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF A SEA BREEZE SO COASTAL LOCATIONS MAY BE
WARM AS WELL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
WARMER ON THE SOUTH COASTLINE WHICH MAY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE DURING THIS PERIOD AS THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTIES ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/EC...BOTH
THE UKMET AND THE CANADIAN LEAN TOWARDS THE CUT-OFF LOW SCENARIO OF
THE EC. THE GEFS ARE ALSO NOT IN FULL SUPPORT OF THE GFS SO DECIDED
TO KEEP IT A DRY FORECAST ON SUNDAY. GUIDANCE IS ALSO INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIP AROUND TUES/WED...BUT BECAUSE
OF THE TIMING ISSUES AMONGST GUIDANCE DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TREND ABOVE AVERAGE STARTING ON SUNDAY AND
INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF SCHOOL FOR SOME. BOTH MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
ARE HINTING AT ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE SETS UP WE COULD SEE EITHER
U80S/L90S OR EVEN MID 90S FOR NEXT WEEK. IF THE AXIS IS WEST OF THE
AREA THEN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR POTENTIAL FOR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONTS OR EVEN REMNANTS OF MCS ARE POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
AS THIS IS AN IMPRESSIVE WARM SIGNAL FROM THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

THRU 00Z...VFR WITH CIGS BKN035-050. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AFTER 00Z...VFR WITH ISOLATED MVFR LATE IN PATCHY FOG IN INTERIOR
VALLEYS. HIGH CONFIDENCE EXCEPT LOWER IN AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG.

FRIDAY/FRI NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. ISOLATED MVFR POSSIBLE
IN LATE NIGHT FOG INTERIOR.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE LIKELY FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /SAT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

10 AM UPDATE...

ONLY WRINKLE TO THE FORECAST IS A PERSISTENT EAST SWELL OF AROUND
4 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS. THIS COMBINED WITH OFFSHORE WNW WINDS MAY
YIELD SOME CHOPPY SEAS AT TIMES FOR THE OCEAN WATERS. THEREFORE
HAVE INCREASED SEAS TO ABOUT 4 FT FOR THE WATERS EAST OF CAPE COD
AND NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
GENERALLY W/NW FLOW BUT WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AS
SEABEEZES DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKS TO BUILDING
HIGH PRES. WINDS OUT OF THE SW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF 20 KT GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/NOCERA/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 271421
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1021 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WITH A WARMING
TREND THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1015 AM UPDATE...

FABULOUS LATE SUMMER WEATHER IN PROGRESS WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
WARMING TEMPS THRU THE 70S AND MORE IMPORTANTLY DEW PTS IN THE 50S
PROVIDING COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY. LOTS OF POST FRONTAL/COLD AIR
ADVECTION STRATO-CU ACROSS NY STATE AND INTO VT. NOT EXPECTING AS
MUCH CLOUD COVER HERE IN SNE AS MID LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY WITH HEIGHT RISES HERE IN SNE RESULTING IN MID
LEVEL FLOW BECOMING LESS CYCLONIC. THUS MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN MA AT TIMES.

NEVERTHELESS VERY PLEASANT LATE SUMMER WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN THE
U70S AND L80S PER UPSTREAM 12Z ALY SOUNDING ALONG WITH DEW PTS
REMAINING IN THE 50S.

ONLY FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE MODEST EAST SWELLS OF AROUND 4 FT
EVERY 9 SECONDS IMPACTING EAST FACING OCEAN BEACHES OF CAPE COD
AND NANTUCKET. THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD SURF OF 2 TO 4 FT WITH A
FEW SETS OF WAVES UP TO 5 FT AT TIMES. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODEST
TO PERHAPS ROUGH SURF AT TIMES AT THESE LOCATIONS ALONG WITH A
MODERATE RISK OF STRONG RIPS. AGAIN THIS WILL BE CONFINED TO EAST
FACING OCEAN BEACHES OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE A GREAT
BEACH DAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

MID LEVEL TROF AXIS AND WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH NEW ENG BUT
THE COLUMN IS DRY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE LAKES WITH DRY NW
FLOW...SO DRY WEATHER. THE COOLER AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SOME DIURNAL CU BUT A PT- MOSUNNY
DAY. 850 MB TEMPS 10-11C SUPPORT MAXES UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
DEGREES...COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN. COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. WITH DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL RESULT IN A COOL NIGHT WITH MINS MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH SOME
UPPER 40S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW MA. MILDER LOWER 60S URBAN
CENTER OF BOS AND OUTER CAPE/ACK. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG
POSSIBLE ACROSS W MA.

FRIDAY...
A BEAUTIFUL DAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO NEW ENG WITH SUNSHINE AND
LIGHT WINDS. MAX TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SEABREEZES
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
HOWEVER GUIDANCE IS STILL HAVING ISSUES WITH UPPER PLAINS SHORTWAVE.
THE EC AMPLIFIES AND TURNS IT INTO A CUT-OFF LOW. FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL DELAY THE HEAT FOR NEXT WEEK BY A DAY OR TWO.
WHERE AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE STRETCHING THE WAVE OVER NEW
ENGLAND. REGARDLESS BERMUDA HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND HEAT OVER THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. BEYOND THE
PERIOD LARGE SIGNALS THAT THE RIDGE WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION HOWEVER THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF A SEA BREEZE SO COASTAL LOCATIONS MAY BE
WARM AS WELL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
WARMER ON THE SOUTH COASTLINE WHICH MAY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE DURING THIS PERIOD AS THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTIES ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/EC...BOTH
THE UKMET AND THE CANADIAN LEAN TOWARDS THE CUT-OFF LOW SCENARIO OF
THE EC. THE GEFS ARE ALSO NOT IN FULL SUPPORT OF THE GFS SO DECIDED
TO KEEP IT A DRY FORECAST ON SUNDAY. GUIDANCE IS ALSO INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIP AROUND TUES/WED...BUT BECAUSE
OF THE TIMING ISSUES AMONGST GUIDANCE DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TREND ABOVE AVERAGE STARTING ON SUNDAY AND
INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF SCHOOL FOR SOME. BOTH MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
ARE HINTING AT ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE SETS UP WE COULD SEE EITHER
U80S/L90S OR EVEN MID 90S FOR NEXT WEEK. IF THE AXIS IS WEST OF THE
AREA THEN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR POTENTIAL FOR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONTS OR EVEN REMNANTS OF MCS ARE POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
AS THIS IS AN IMPRESSIVE WARM SIGNAL FROM THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

10 AM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 12Z TAFS. WNW WINDS SHOULD PRECLUDE
SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

================================================================

THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. EXPECT SEA BREEZE TO
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE TODAY. BETTER CHC OF A SEA BREEZE FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

10 AM UPDATE...

ONLY WRINKLE TO THE FORECAST IS A PERSISTENT EAST SWELL OF AROUND
4 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS. THIS COMBINED WITH OFFSHORE WNW WINDS MAY
YIELD SOME CHOPPY SEAS AT TIMES FOR THE OCEAN WATERS. THEREFORE
HAVE INCREASED SEAS TO ABOUT 4 FT FOR THE WATERS EAST OF CAPE COD
AND NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
GENERALLY W/NW FLOW BUT WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AS
SEABEEZES DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKS TO BUILDING
HIGH PRES. WINDS OUT OF THE SW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF 20 KT GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/NOCERA/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/NOCERA/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 271421
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1021 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WITH A WARMING
TREND THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1015 AM UPDATE...

FABULOUS LATE SUMMER WEATHER IN PROGRESS WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
WARMING TEMPS THRU THE 70S AND MORE IMPORTANTLY DEW PTS IN THE 50S
PROVIDING COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY. LOTS OF POST FRONTAL/COLD AIR
ADVECTION STRATO-CU ACROSS NY STATE AND INTO VT. NOT EXPECTING AS
MUCH CLOUD COVER HERE IN SNE AS MID LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY WITH HEIGHT RISES HERE IN SNE RESULTING IN MID
LEVEL FLOW BECOMING LESS CYCLONIC. THUS MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN MA AT TIMES.

NEVERTHELESS VERY PLEASANT LATE SUMMER WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN THE
U70S AND L80S PER UPSTREAM 12Z ALY SOUNDING ALONG WITH DEW PTS
REMAINING IN THE 50S.

ONLY FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE MODEST EAST SWELLS OF AROUND 4 FT
EVERY 9 SECONDS IMPACTING EAST FACING OCEAN BEACHES OF CAPE COD
AND NANTUCKET. THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD SURF OF 2 TO 4 FT WITH A
FEW SETS OF WAVES UP TO 5 FT AT TIMES. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODEST
TO PERHAPS ROUGH SURF AT TIMES AT THESE LOCATIONS ALONG WITH A
MODERATE RISK OF STRONG RIPS. AGAIN THIS WILL BE CONFINED TO EAST
FACING OCEAN BEACHES OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE A GREAT
BEACH DAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

MID LEVEL TROF AXIS AND WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH NEW ENG BUT
THE COLUMN IS DRY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE LAKES WITH DRY NW
FLOW...SO DRY WEATHER. THE COOLER AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SOME DIURNAL CU BUT A PT- MOSUNNY
DAY. 850 MB TEMPS 10-11C SUPPORT MAXES UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
DEGREES...COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN. COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. WITH DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL RESULT IN A COOL NIGHT WITH MINS MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH SOME
UPPER 40S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW MA. MILDER LOWER 60S URBAN
CENTER OF BOS AND OUTER CAPE/ACK. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG
POSSIBLE ACROSS W MA.

FRIDAY...
A BEAUTIFUL DAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO NEW ENG WITH SUNSHINE AND
LIGHT WINDS. MAX TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SEABREEZES
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
HOWEVER GUIDANCE IS STILL HAVING ISSUES WITH UPPER PLAINS SHORTWAVE.
THE EC AMPLIFIES AND TURNS IT INTO A CUT-OFF LOW. FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL DELAY THE HEAT FOR NEXT WEEK BY A DAY OR TWO.
WHERE AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE STRETCHING THE WAVE OVER NEW
ENGLAND. REGARDLESS BERMUDA HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND HEAT OVER THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. BEYOND THE
PERIOD LARGE SIGNALS THAT THE RIDGE WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION HOWEVER THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF A SEA BREEZE SO COASTAL LOCATIONS MAY BE
WARM AS WELL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
WARMER ON THE SOUTH COASTLINE WHICH MAY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE DURING THIS PERIOD AS THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTIES ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/EC...BOTH
THE UKMET AND THE CANADIAN LEAN TOWARDS THE CUT-OFF LOW SCENARIO OF
THE EC. THE GEFS ARE ALSO NOT IN FULL SUPPORT OF THE GFS SO DECIDED
TO KEEP IT A DRY FORECAST ON SUNDAY. GUIDANCE IS ALSO INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIP AROUND TUES/WED...BUT BECAUSE
OF THE TIMING ISSUES AMONGST GUIDANCE DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TREND ABOVE AVERAGE STARTING ON SUNDAY AND
INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF SCHOOL FOR SOME. BOTH MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
ARE HINTING AT ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE SETS UP WE COULD SEE EITHER
U80S/L90S OR EVEN MID 90S FOR NEXT WEEK. IF THE AXIS IS WEST OF THE
AREA THEN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR POTENTIAL FOR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONTS OR EVEN REMNANTS OF MCS ARE POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
AS THIS IS AN IMPRESSIVE WARM SIGNAL FROM THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

10 AM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 12Z TAFS. WNW WINDS SHOULD PRECLUDE
SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

================================================================

THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. EXPECT SEA BREEZE TO
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE TODAY. BETTER CHC OF A SEA BREEZE FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

10 AM UPDATE...

ONLY WRINKLE TO THE FORECAST IS A PERSISTENT EAST SWELL OF AROUND
4 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS. THIS COMBINED WITH OFFSHORE WNW WINDS MAY
YIELD SOME CHOPPY SEAS AT TIMES FOR THE OCEAN WATERS. THEREFORE
HAVE INCREASED SEAS TO ABOUT 4 FT FOR THE WATERS EAST OF CAPE COD
AND NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
GENERALLY W/NW FLOW BUT WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AS
SEABEEZES DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKS TO BUILDING
HIGH PRES. WINDS OUT OF THE SW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF 20 KT GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/NOCERA/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/NOCERA/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 271040
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
640 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WITH A WARMING
TREND THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

700 AM UPDATE...

A FEW SHOWERS COMING OUT OF LAKE ONTARIO HAS PRODUCED A FEW
PASSING CLOUDS OVER SNE. OTHERWISE PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL
DISSIPATE WITHIN THE HOUR AS DAY TIME HEATING BEGINS. ASIDE FROM A
FEW MINOR TWEAKS...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

MID LEVEL TROF AXIS AND WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH NEW ENG BUT
THE COLUMN IS DRY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE LAKES WITH DRY NW
FLOW...SO DRY WEATHER. THE COOLER AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SOME DIURNAL CU BUT A PT- MOSUNNY
DAY. 850 MB TEMPS 10-11C SUPPORT MAXES UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
DEGREES...COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN. COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. WITH DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL RESULT IN A COOL NIGHT WITH MINS MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH SOME
UPPER 40S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW MA. MILDER LOWER 60S URBAN
CENTER OF BOS AND OUTER CAPE/ACK. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG
POSSIBLE ACROSS W MA.

FRIDAY...
A BEAUTIFUL DAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO NEW ENG WITH SUNSHINE AND
LIGHT WINDS. MAX TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SEABREEZES
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
HOWEVER GUIDANCE IS STILL HAVING ISSUES WITH UPPER PLAINS SHORTWAVE.
THE EC AMPLIFIES AND TURNS IT INTO A CUT-OFF LOW. FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL DELAY THE HEAT FOR NEXT WEEK BY A DAY OR TWO.
WHERE AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE STRETCHING THE WAVE OVER NEW
ENGLAND. REGARDLESS BERMUDA HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND HEAT OVER THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. BEYOND THE
PERIOD LARGE SIGNALS THAT THE RIDGE WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION HOWEVER THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF A SEA BREEZE SO COASTAL LOCATIONS MAY BE
WARM AS WELL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
WARMER ON THE SOUTH COASTLINE WHICH MAY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE DURING THIS PERIOD AS THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTIES ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/EC...BOTH
THE UKMET AND THE CANADIAN LEAN TOWARDS THE CUT-OFF LOW SCENARIO OF
THE EC. THE GEFS ARE ALSO NOT IN FULL SUPPORT OF THE GFS SO DECIDED
TO KEEP IT A DRY FORECAST ON SUNDAY. GUIDANCE IS ALSO INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIP AROUND TUES/WED...BUT BECAUSE
OF THE TIMING ISSUES AMONGST GUIDANCE DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TREND ABOVE AVERAGE STARTING ON SUNDAY AND
INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF SCHOOL FOR SOME. BOTH MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
ARE HINTING AT ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE SETS UP WE COULD SEE EITHER
U80S/L90S OR EVEN MID 90S FOR NEXT WEEK. IF THE AXIS IS WEST OF THE
AREA THEN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR POTENTIAL FOR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONTS OR EVEN REMNANTS OF MCS ARE POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
AS THIS IS AN IMPRESSIVE WARM SIGNAL FROM THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. EXPECT SEA BREEZE TO
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE TODAY. BETTER CHC OF A SEA BREEZE FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
GENERALLY W/NW FLOW BUT WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AS
SEABEEZES DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKS TO BUILDING
HIGH PRES. WINDS OUT OF THE SW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF 20 KT GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 271040
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
640 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WITH A WARMING
TREND THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

700 AM UPDATE...

A FEW SHOWERS COMING OUT OF LAKE ONTARIO HAS PRODUCED A FEW
PASSING CLOUDS OVER SNE. OTHERWISE PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL
DISSIPATE WITHIN THE HOUR AS DAY TIME HEATING BEGINS. ASIDE FROM A
FEW MINOR TWEAKS...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

MID LEVEL TROF AXIS AND WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH NEW ENG BUT
THE COLUMN IS DRY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE LAKES WITH DRY NW
FLOW...SO DRY WEATHER. THE COOLER AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SOME DIURNAL CU BUT A PT- MOSUNNY
DAY. 850 MB TEMPS 10-11C SUPPORT MAXES UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
DEGREES...COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN. COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. WITH DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL RESULT IN A COOL NIGHT WITH MINS MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH SOME
UPPER 40S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW MA. MILDER LOWER 60S URBAN
CENTER OF BOS AND OUTER CAPE/ACK. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG
POSSIBLE ACROSS W MA.

FRIDAY...
A BEAUTIFUL DAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO NEW ENG WITH SUNSHINE AND
LIGHT WINDS. MAX TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SEABREEZES
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
HOWEVER GUIDANCE IS STILL HAVING ISSUES WITH UPPER PLAINS SHORTWAVE.
THE EC AMPLIFIES AND TURNS IT INTO A CUT-OFF LOW. FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL DELAY THE HEAT FOR NEXT WEEK BY A DAY OR TWO.
WHERE AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE STRETCHING THE WAVE OVER NEW
ENGLAND. REGARDLESS BERMUDA HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND HEAT OVER THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. BEYOND THE
PERIOD LARGE SIGNALS THAT THE RIDGE WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION HOWEVER THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF A SEA BREEZE SO COASTAL LOCATIONS MAY BE
WARM AS WELL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
WARMER ON THE SOUTH COASTLINE WHICH MAY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE DURING THIS PERIOD AS THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTIES ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/EC...BOTH
THE UKMET AND THE CANADIAN LEAN TOWARDS THE CUT-OFF LOW SCENARIO OF
THE EC. THE GEFS ARE ALSO NOT IN FULL SUPPORT OF THE GFS SO DECIDED
TO KEEP IT A DRY FORECAST ON SUNDAY. GUIDANCE IS ALSO INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIP AROUND TUES/WED...BUT BECAUSE
OF THE TIMING ISSUES AMONGST GUIDANCE DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TREND ABOVE AVERAGE STARTING ON SUNDAY AND
INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF SCHOOL FOR SOME. BOTH MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
ARE HINTING AT ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE SETS UP WE COULD SEE EITHER
U80S/L90S OR EVEN MID 90S FOR NEXT WEEK. IF THE AXIS IS WEST OF THE
AREA THEN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR POTENTIAL FOR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONTS OR EVEN REMNANTS OF MCS ARE POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
AS THIS IS AN IMPRESSIVE WARM SIGNAL FROM THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. EXPECT SEA BREEZE TO
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE TODAY. BETTER CHC OF A SEA BREEZE FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
GENERALLY W/NW FLOW BUT WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AS
SEABEEZES DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKS TO BUILDING
HIGH PRES. WINDS OUT OF THE SW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF 20 KT GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 271040
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
640 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WITH A WARMING
TREND THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

700 AM UPDATE...

A FEW SHOWERS COMING OUT OF LAKE ONTARIO HAS PRODUCED A FEW
PASSING CLOUDS OVER SNE. OTHERWISE PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL
DISSIPATE WITHIN THE HOUR AS DAY TIME HEATING BEGINS. ASIDE FROM A
FEW MINOR TWEAKS...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

MID LEVEL TROF AXIS AND WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH NEW ENG BUT
THE COLUMN IS DRY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE LAKES WITH DRY NW
FLOW...SO DRY WEATHER. THE COOLER AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SOME DIURNAL CU BUT A PT- MOSUNNY
DAY. 850 MB TEMPS 10-11C SUPPORT MAXES UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
DEGREES...COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN. COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. WITH DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL RESULT IN A COOL NIGHT WITH MINS MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH SOME
UPPER 40S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW MA. MILDER LOWER 60S URBAN
CENTER OF BOS AND OUTER CAPE/ACK. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG
POSSIBLE ACROSS W MA.

FRIDAY...
A BEAUTIFUL DAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO NEW ENG WITH SUNSHINE AND
LIGHT WINDS. MAX TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SEABREEZES
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
HOWEVER GUIDANCE IS STILL HAVING ISSUES WITH UPPER PLAINS SHORTWAVE.
THE EC AMPLIFIES AND TURNS IT INTO A CUT-OFF LOW. FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL DELAY THE HEAT FOR NEXT WEEK BY A DAY OR TWO.
WHERE AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE STRETCHING THE WAVE OVER NEW
ENGLAND. REGARDLESS BERMUDA HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND HEAT OVER THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. BEYOND THE
PERIOD LARGE SIGNALS THAT THE RIDGE WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION HOWEVER THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF A SEA BREEZE SO COASTAL LOCATIONS MAY BE
WARM AS WELL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
WARMER ON THE SOUTH COASTLINE WHICH MAY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE DURING THIS PERIOD AS THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTIES ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/EC...BOTH
THE UKMET AND THE CANADIAN LEAN TOWARDS THE CUT-OFF LOW SCENARIO OF
THE EC. THE GEFS ARE ALSO NOT IN FULL SUPPORT OF THE GFS SO DECIDED
TO KEEP IT A DRY FORECAST ON SUNDAY. GUIDANCE IS ALSO INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIP AROUND TUES/WED...BUT BECAUSE
OF THE TIMING ISSUES AMONGST GUIDANCE DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TREND ABOVE AVERAGE STARTING ON SUNDAY AND
INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF SCHOOL FOR SOME. BOTH MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
ARE HINTING AT ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE SETS UP WE COULD SEE EITHER
U80S/L90S OR EVEN MID 90S FOR NEXT WEEK. IF THE AXIS IS WEST OF THE
AREA THEN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR POTENTIAL FOR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONTS OR EVEN REMNANTS OF MCS ARE POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
AS THIS IS AN IMPRESSIVE WARM SIGNAL FROM THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. EXPECT SEA BREEZE TO
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE TODAY. BETTER CHC OF A SEA BREEZE FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
GENERALLY W/NW FLOW BUT WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AS
SEABEEZES DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKS TO BUILDING
HIGH PRES. WINDS OUT OF THE SW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF 20 KT GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 271040
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
640 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WITH A WARMING
TREND THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

700 AM UPDATE...

A FEW SHOWERS COMING OUT OF LAKE ONTARIO HAS PRODUCED A FEW
PASSING CLOUDS OVER SNE. OTHERWISE PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL
DISSIPATE WITHIN THE HOUR AS DAY TIME HEATING BEGINS. ASIDE FROM A
FEW MINOR TWEAKS...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

MID LEVEL TROF AXIS AND WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH NEW ENG BUT
THE COLUMN IS DRY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE LAKES WITH DRY NW
FLOW...SO DRY WEATHER. THE COOLER AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SOME DIURNAL CU BUT A PT- MOSUNNY
DAY. 850 MB TEMPS 10-11C SUPPORT MAXES UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
DEGREES...COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN. COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. WITH DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL RESULT IN A COOL NIGHT WITH MINS MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH SOME
UPPER 40S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW MA. MILDER LOWER 60S URBAN
CENTER OF BOS AND OUTER CAPE/ACK. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG
POSSIBLE ACROSS W MA.

FRIDAY...
A BEAUTIFUL DAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO NEW ENG WITH SUNSHINE AND
LIGHT WINDS. MAX TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SEABREEZES
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
HOWEVER GUIDANCE IS STILL HAVING ISSUES WITH UPPER PLAINS SHORTWAVE.
THE EC AMPLIFIES AND TURNS IT INTO A CUT-OFF LOW. FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL DELAY THE HEAT FOR NEXT WEEK BY A DAY OR TWO.
WHERE AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE STRETCHING THE WAVE OVER NEW
ENGLAND. REGARDLESS BERMUDA HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND HEAT OVER THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. BEYOND THE
PERIOD LARGE SIGNALS THAT THE RIDGE WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION HOWEVER THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF A SEA BREEZE SO COASTAL LOCATIONS MAY BE
WARM AS WELL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
WARMER ON THE SOUTH COASTLINE WHICH MAY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE DURING THIS PERIOD AS THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTIES ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/EC...BOTH
THE UKMET AND THE CANADIAN LEAN TOWARDS THE CUT-OFF LOW SCENARIO OF
THE EC. THE GEFS ARE ALSO NOT IN FULL SUPPORT OF THE GFS SO DECIDED
TO KEEP IT A DRY FORECAST ON SUNDAY. GUIDANCE IS ALSO INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIP AROUND TUES/WED...BUT BECAUSE
OF THE TIMING ISSUES AMONGST GUIDANCE DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TREND ABOVE AVERAGE STARTING ON SUNDAY AND
INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF SCHOOL FOR SOME. BOTH MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
ARE HINTING AT ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE SETS UP WE COULD SEE EITHER
U80S/L90S OR EVEN MID 90S FOR NEXT WEEK. IF THE AXIS IS WEST OF THE
AREA THEN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR POTENTIAL FOR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONTS OR EVEN REMNANTS OF MCS ARE POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
AS THIS IS AN IMPRESSIVE WARM SIGNAL FROM THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. EXPECT SEA BREEZE TO
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE TODAY. BETTER CHC OF A SEA BREEZE FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
GENERALLY W/NW FLOW BUT WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AS
SEABEEZES DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKS TO BUILDING
HIGH PRES. WINDS OUT OF THE SW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF 20 KT GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 270748
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
348 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WITH A WARMING
TREND THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID LEVEL TROF AXIS AND WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH NEW ENG BUT
THE COLUMN IS DRY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE LAKES WITH DRY NW
FLOW...SO DRY WEATHER. THE COOLER AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SOME DIURNAL CU BUT A PT- MOSUNNY
DAY. 850 MB TEMPS 10-11C SUPPORT MAXES UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
DEGREES...COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN. COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. WITH DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL RESULT IN A COOL NIGHT WITH MINS MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH SOME
UPPER 40S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW MA. MILDER LOWER 60S URBAN
CENTER OF BOS AND OUTER CAPE/ACK. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG
POSSIBLE ACROSS W MA.

FRIDAY...
A BEAUTIFUL DAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO NEW ENG WITH SUNSHINE AND
LIGHT WINDS. MAX TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SEABREEZES
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
HOWEVER GUIDANCE IS STILL HAVING ISSUES WITH UPPER PLAINS SHORTWAVE.
THE EC AMPLIFIES AND TURNS IT INTO A CUT-OFF LOW. FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL DELAY THE HEAT FOR NEXT WEEK BY A DAY OR TWO.
WHERE AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE STRETCHING THE WAVE OVER NEW
ENGLAND. REGARDLESS BERMUDA HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND HEAT OVER THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. BEYOND THE
PERIOD LARGE SIGNALS THAT THE RIDGE WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION HOWEVER THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF A SEA BREEZE SO COASTAL LOCATIONS MAY BE
WARM AS WELL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
WARMER ON THE SOUTH COASTLINE WHICH MAY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE DURING THIS PERIOD AS THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTIES ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/EC...BOTH
THE UKMET AND THE CANADIAN LEAN TOWARDS THE CUT-OFF LOW SCENARIO OF
THE EC. THE GEFS ARE ALSO NOT IN FULL SUPPORT OF THE GFS SO DECIDED
TO KEEP IT A DRY FORECAST ON SUNDAY. GUIDANCE IS ALSO INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIP AROUND TUES/WED...BUT BECAUSE
OF THE TIMING ISSUES AMONGST GUIDANCE DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TREND ABOVE AVERAGE STARTING ON SUNDAY AND
INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF SCHOOL FOR SOME. BOTH MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
ARE HINTING AT ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE SETS UP WE COULD SEE EITHER
U80S/L90S OR EVEN MID 90S FOR NEXT WEEK. IF THE AXIS IS WEST OF THE
AREA THEN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR POTENTIAL FOR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONTS OR EVEN REMNANTS OF MCS ARE POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
AS THIS IS AN IMPRESSIVE WARM SIGNAL FROM THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. EXPECT SEA BREEZE TO
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE TODAY. BETTER CHC OF A SEA BREEZE FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
GENERALLY W/NW FLOW BUT WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AS
SEABEEZES DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKS TO BUILDING
HIGH PRES. WINDS OUT OF THE SW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF 20 KT GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 270748
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
348 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WITH A WARMING
TREND THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID LEVEL TROF AXIS AND WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH NEW ENG BUT
THE COLUMN IS DRY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE LAKES WITH DRY NW
FLOW...SO DRY WEATHER. THE COOLER AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SOME DIURNAL CU BUT A PT- MOSUNNY
DAY. 850 MB TEMPS 10-11C SUPPORT MAXES UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
DEGREES...COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN. COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. WITH DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL RESULT IN A COOL NIGHT WITH MINS MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH SOME
UPPER 40S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW MA. MILDER LOWER 60S URBAN
CENTER OF BOS AND OUTER CAPE/ACK. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG
POSSIBLE ACROSS W MA.

FRIDAY...
A BEAUTIFUL DAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO NEW ENG WITH SUNSHINE AND
LIGHT WINDS. MAX TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SEABREEZES
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
HOWEVER GUIDANCE IS STILL HAVING ISSUES WITH UPPER PLAINS SHORTWAVE.
THE EC AMPLIFIES AND TURNS IT INTO A CUT-OFF LOW. FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL DELAY THE HEAT FOR NEXT WEEK BY A DAY OR TWO.
WHERE AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE STRETCHING THE WAVE OVER NEW
ENGLAND. REGARDLESS BERMUDA HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND HEAT OVER THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. BEYOND THE
PERIOD LARGE SIGNALS THAT THE RIDGE WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION HOWEVER THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF A SEA BREEZE SO COASTAL LOCATIONS MAY BE
WARM AS WELL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
WARMER ON THE SOUTH COASTLINE WHICH MAY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE DURING THIS PERIOD AS THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTIES ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/EC...BOTH
THE UKMET AND THE CANADIAN LEAN TOWARDS THE CUT-OFF LOW SCENARIO OF
THE EC. THE GEFS ARE ALSO NOT IN FULL SUPPORT OF THE GFS SO DECIDED
TO KEEP IT A DRY FORECAST ON SUNDAY. GUIDANCE IS ALSO INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIP AROUND TUES/WED...BUT BECAUSE
OF THE TIMING ISSUES AMONGST GUIDANCE DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TREND ABOVE AVERAGE STARTING ON SUNDAY AND
INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF SCHOOL FOR SOME. BOTH MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
ARE HINTING AT ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE SETS UP WE COULD SEE EITHER
U80S/L90S OR EVEN MID 90S FOR NEXT WEEK. IF THE AXIS IS WEST OF THE
AREA THEN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR POTENTIAL FOR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONTS OR EVEN REMNANTS OF MCS ARE POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
AS THIS IS AN IMPRESSIVE WARM SIGNAL FROM THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. EXPECT SEA BREEZE TO
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE TODAY. BETTER CHC OF A SEA BREEZE FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
GENERALLY W/NW FLOW BUT WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AS
SEABEEZES DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKS TO BUILDING
HIGH PRES. WINDS OUT OF THE SW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF 20 KT GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 270748
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
348 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WITH A WARMING
TREND THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID LEVEL TROF AXIS AND WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH NEW ENG BUT
THE COLUMN IS DRY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE LAKES WITH DRY NW
FLOW...SO DRY WEATHER. THE COOLER AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SOME DIURNAL CU BUT A PT- MOSUNNY
DAY. 850 MB TEMPS 10-11C SUPPORT MAXES UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
DEGREES...COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN. COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. WITH DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL RESULT IN A COOL NIGHT WITH MINS MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH SOME
UPPER 40S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW MA. MILDER LOWER 60S URBAN
CENTER OF BOS AND OUTER CAPE/ACK. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG
POSSIBLE ACROSS W MA.

FRIDAY...
A BEAUTIFUL DAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO NEW ENG WITH SUNSHINE AND
LIGHT WINDS. MAX TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SEABREEZES
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
HOWEVER GUIDANCE IS STILL HAVING ISSUES WITH UPPER PLAINS SHORTWAVE.
THE EC AMPLIFIES AND TURNS IT INTO A CUT-OFF LOW. FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL DELAY THE HEAT FOR NEXT WEEK BY A DAY OR TWO.
WHERE AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE STRETCHING THE WAVE OVER NEW
ENGLAND. REGARDLESS BERMUDA HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND HEAT OVER THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. BEYOND THE
PERIOD LARGE SIGNALS THAT THE RIDGE WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION HOWEVER THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF A SEA BREEZE SO COASTAL LOCATIONS MAY BE
WARM AS WELL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
WARMER ON THE SOUTH COASTLINE WHICH MAY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE DURING THIS PERIOD AS THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTIES ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/EC...BOTH
THE UKMET AND THE CANADIAN LEAN TOWARDS THE CUT-OFF LOW SCENARIO OF
THE EC. THE GEFS ARE ALSO NOT IN FULL SUPPORT OF THE GFS SO DECIDED
TO KEEP IT A DRY FORECAST ON SUNDAY. GUIDANCE IS ALSO INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIP AROUND TUES/WED...BUT BECAUSE
OF THE TIMING ISSUES AMONGST GUIDANCE DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TREND ABOVE AVERAGE STARTING ON SUNDAY AND
INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF SCHOOL FOR SOME. BOTH MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
ARE HINTING AT ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE SETS UP WE COULD SEE EITHER
U80S/L90S OR EVEN MID 90S FOR NEXT WEEK. IF THE AXIS IS WEST OF THE
AREA THEN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR POTENTIAL FOR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONTS OR EVEN REMNANTS OF MCS ARE POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
AS THIS IS AN IMPRESSIVE WARM SIGNAL FROM THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. EXPECT SEA BREEZE TO
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE TODAY. BETTER CHC OF A SEA BREEZE FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
GENERALLY W/NW FLOW BUT WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AS
SEABEEZES DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKS TO BUILDING
HIGH PRES. WINDS OUT OF THE SW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF 20 KT GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 270748
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
348 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WITH A WARMING
TREND THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID LEVEL TROF AXIS AND WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH NEW ENG BUT
THE COLUMN IS DRY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE LAKES WITH DRY NW
FLOW...SO DRY WEATHER. THE COOLER AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SOME DIURNAL CU BUT A PT- MOSUNNY
DAY. 850 MB TEMPS 10-11C SUPPORT MAXES UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
DEGREES...COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN. COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. WITH DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL RESULT IN A COOL NIGHT WITH MINS MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH SOME
UPPER 40S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW MA. MILDER LOWER 60S URBAN
CENTER OF BOS AND OUTER CAPE/ACK. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG
POSSIBLE ACROSS W MA.

FRIDAY...
A BEAUTIFUL DAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO NEW ENG WITH SUNSHINE AND
LIGHT WINDS. MAX TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SEABREEZES
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
HOWEVER GUIDANCE IS STILL HAVING ISSUES WITH UPPER PLAINS SHORTWAVE.
THE EC AMPLIFIES AND TURNS IT INTO A CUT-OFF LOW. FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL DELAY THE HEAT FOR NEXT WEEK BY A DAY OR TWO.
WHERE AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE STRETCHING THE WAVE OVER NEW
ENGLAND. REGARDLESS BERMUDA HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND HEAT OVER THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. BEYOND THE
PERIOD LARGE SIGNALS THAT THE RIDGE WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION HOWEVER THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF A SEA BREEZE SO COASTAL LOCATIONS MAY BE
WARM AS WELL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
WARMER ON THE SOUTH COASTLINE WHICH MAY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE DURING THIS PERIOD AS THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTIES ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/EC...BOTH
THE UKMET AND THE CANADIAN LEAN TOWARDS THE CUT-OFF LOW SCENARIO OF
THE EC. THE GEFS ARE ALSO NOT IN FULL SUPPORT OF THE GFS SO DECIDED
TO KEEP IT A DRY FORECAST ON SUNDAY. GUIDANCE IS ALSO INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIP AROUND TUES/WED...BUT BECAUSE
OF THE TIMING ISSUES AMONGST GUIDANCE DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TREND ABOVE AVERAGE STARTING ON SUNDAY AND
INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF SCHOOL FOR SOME. BOTH MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
ARE HINTING AT ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE SETS UP WE COULD SEE EITHER
U80S/L90S OR EVEN MID 90S FOR NEXT WEEK. IF THE AXIS IS WEST OF THE
AREA THEN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR POTENTIAL FOR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONTS OR EVEN REMNANTS OF MCS ARE POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
AS THIS IS AN IMPRESSIVE WARM SIGNAL FROM THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. EXPECT SEA BREEZE TO
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE TODAY. BETTER CHC OF A SEA BREEZE FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
GENERALLY W/NW FLOW BUT WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AS
SEABEEZES DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKS TO BUILDING
HIGH PRES. WINDS OUT OF THE SW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF 20 KT GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 270748
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
348 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WITH A WARMING
TREND THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID LEVEL TROF AXIS AND WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH NEW ENG BUT
THE COLUMN IS DRY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE LAKES WITH DRY NW
FLOW...SO DRY WEATHER. THE COOLER AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SOME DIURNAL CU BUT A PT- MOSUNNY
DAY. 850 MB TEMPS 10-11C SUPPORT MAXES UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
DEGREES...COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN. COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. WITH DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL RESULT IN A COOL NIGHT WITH MINS MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH SOME
UPPER 40S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW MA. MILDER LOWER 60S URBAN
CENTER OF BOS AND OUTER CAPE/ACK. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG
POSSIBLE ACROSS W MA.

FRIDAY...
A BEAUTIFUL DAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO NEW ENG WITH SUNSHINE AND
LIGHT WINDS. MAX TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SEABREEZES
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
HOWEVER GUIDANCE IS STILL HAVING ISSUES WITH UPPER PLAINS SHORTWAVE.
THE EC AMPLIFIES AND TURNS IT INTO A CUT-OFF LOW. FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL DELAY THE HEAT FOR NEXT WEEK BY A DAY OR TWO.
WHERE AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE STRETCHING THE WAVE OVER NEW
ENGLAND. REGARDLESS BERMUDA HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND HEAT OVER THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. BEYOND THE
PERIOD LARGE SIGNALS THAT THE RIDGE WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION HOWEVER THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF A SEA BREEZE SO COASTAL LOCATIONS MAY BE
WARM AS WELL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
WARMER ON THE SOUTH COASTLINE WHICH MAY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE DURING THIS PERIOD AS THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTIES ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/EC...BOTH
THE UKMET AND THE CANADIAN LEAN TOWARDS THE CUT-OFF LOW SCENARIO OF
THE EC. THE GEFS ARE ALSO NOT IN FULL SUPPORT OF THE GFS SO DECIDED
TO KEEP IT A DRY FORECAST ON SUNDAY. GUIDANCE IS ALSO INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIP AROUND TUES/WED...BUT BECAUSE
OF THE TIMING ISSUES AMONGST GUIDANCE DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TREND ABOVE AVERAGE STARTING ON SUNDAY AND
INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF SCHOOL FOR SOME. BOTH MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
ARE HINTING AT ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE SETS UP WE COULD SEE EITHER
U80S/L90S OR EVEN MID 90S FOR NEXT WEEK. IF THE AXIS IS WEST OF THE
AREA THEN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR POTENTIAL FOR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONTS OR EVEN REMNANTS OF MCS ARE POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
AS THIS IS AN IMPRESSIVE WARM SIGNAL FROM THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. EXPECT SEA BREEZE TO
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE TODAY. BETTER CHC OF A SEA BREEZE FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
GENERALLY W/NW FLOW BUT WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AS
SEABEEZES DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKS TO BUILDING
HIGH PRES. WINDS OUT OF THE SW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF 20 KT GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 270748
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
348 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WITH A WARMING
TREND THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID LEVEL TROF AXIS AND WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH NEW ENG BUT
THE COLUMN IS DRY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE LAKES WITH DRY NW
FLOW...SO DRY WEATHER. THE COOLER AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SOME DIURNAL CU BUT A PT- MOSUNNY
DAY. 850 MB TEMPS 10-11C SUPPORT MAXES UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
DEGREES...COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN. COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. WITH DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL RESULT IN A COOL NIGHT WITH MINS MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH SOME
UPPER 40S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW MA. MILDER LOWER 60S URBAN
CENTER OF BOS AND OUTER CAPE/ACK. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG
POSSIBLE ACROSS W MA.

FRIDAY...
A BEAUTIFUL DAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO NEW ENG WITH SUNSHINE AND
LIGHT WINDS. MAX TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SEABREEZES
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND
* ANOMALOUS STRONG RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE WORK WEEK

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
HOWEVER GUIDANCE IS STILL HAVING ISSUES WITH UPPER PLAINS SHORTWAVE.
THE EC AMPLIFIES AND TURNS IT INTO A CUT-OFF LOW. FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL DELAY THE HEAT FOR NEXT WEEK BY A DAY OR TWO.
WHERE AS THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE STRETCHING THE WAVE OVER NEW
ENGLAND. REGARDLESS BERMUDA HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND HEAT OVER THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. BEYOND THE
PERIOD LARGE SIGNALS THAT THE RIDGE WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION HOWEVER THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF A SEA BREEZE SO COASTAL LOCATIONS MAY BE
WARM AS WELL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
WARMER ON THE SOUTH COASTLINE WHICH MAY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE DURING THIS PERIOD AS THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTIES ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/EC...BOTH
THE UKMET AND THE CANADIAN LEAN TOWARDS THE CUT-OFF LOW SCENARIO OF
THE EC. THE GEFS ARE ALSO NOT IN FULL SUPPORT OF THE GFS SO DECIDED
TO KEEP IT A DRY FORECAST ON SUNDAY. GUIDANCE IS ALSO INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIP AROUND TUES/WED...BUT BECAUSE
OF THE TIMING ISSUES AMONGST GUIDANCE DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TREND ABOVE AVERAGE STARTING ON SUNDAY AND
INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF SCHOOL FOR SOME. BOTH MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
ARE HINTING AT ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE SETS UP WE COULD SEE EITHER
U80S/L90S OR EVEN MID 90S FOR NEXT WEEK. IF THE AXIS IS WEST OF THE
AREA THEN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR POTENTIAL FOR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONTS OR EVEN REMNANTS OF MCS ARE POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
AS THIS IS AN IMPRESSIVE WARM SIGNAL FROM THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. EXPECT SEA BREEZE TO
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE TODAY. BETTER CHC OF A SEA BREEZE FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
GENERALLY W/NW FLOW BUT WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AS
SEABEEZES DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKS TO BUILDING
HIGH PRES. WINDS OUT OF THE SW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF 20 KT GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 270700
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
300 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WITH A WARMING
TREND THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MID LEVEL TROF AXIS AND WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH NEW ENG BUT
THE COLUMN IS DRY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE LAKES WITH DRY NW
FLOW...SO DRY WEATHER. THE COOLER AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SOME DIURNAL CU BUT A PT- MOSUNNY
DAY. 850 MB TEMPS 10-11C SUPPORT MAXES UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
DEGREES...COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN. COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. WITH DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL RESULT IN A COOL NIGHT WITH MINS MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH SOME
UPPER 40S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW MA. MILDER LOWER 60S URBAN
CENTER OF BOS AND OUTER CAPE/ACK. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG
POSSIBLE ACROSS W MA.

FRIDAY...
A BEAUTIFUL DAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO NEW ENG WITH SUNSHINE AND
LIGHT WINDS. MAX TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SEABREEZES
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY AND WARM WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY FRIDAY AND SAT
* LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY LOOKS TO RETURN NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE CONTINUES IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
A GOOD PORTION OF THIS FORECAST. TYPICAL SUMMER UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN DOMINATES...WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGE THAT WORKS SLOWLY E OUT
OF THE PLAINS STATES INTO CENTRAL CANADA INTO THIS WEEKEND...WHILE
RATHER FLAT FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S.

AS TIME MOVES ON...THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE CONTINUES TO WORK E
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND HUDSON BAY. DO NOTE A FEW WEAK SHORT
WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW...BUT FEEL WITH LARGE SURFACE RIDGING AND
GOOD SUBSIDENCE THESE WILL PROVIDE LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE OP GFS CONTINUE TO TRY AND DEVELOP A
SOMEWHAT MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE AS IT MOVES ALONG IN THE FLOW
AROUND THE SUN INTO MON TIMEFRAME. THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE
ECMWF ALSO SHOWING A SMALL PROGRESSIVE UPPER CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY
MOVING E. HOWEVER...EACH MODEL HANDLES THE SURFACE CONDITIONS
RATHER DIFFERENTLY...WITH CHANCE FOR PRECIP REMAINING ON THE GFS
WHILE REMAINING DRY ON THE EC AND GGEM EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL...APPEARS THESE MINOR FEATURES PRESENT LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIP AS THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WORKS
OFFSHORE...ESTABLISHING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC. ALSO INTERESTING
TO NOTE THAT ALL THREE OP MODEL RUNS /GFS...GGEM AND ECMWF/ TRY TO
MOVE T.S. ERIKA OFF THE SE U.S. COAST AROUND TUE-WED...THOUGH
HOLDING IT OFFSHORE. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

WENT ALONG WITH AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...
THEN TRANSITIONED OVER THE ENSEMBLES AS MODELS DIVERGE ON THEIR
INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...IT DOES LOOK LIKE
A DRY FORECAST.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS WEEKEND.
EXPECT TEMPS TO RUN CLOSE TO OR A BIT WARMER THAN NORMAL. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S EXCEPT WHERE SEA BREEZES
SET UP HOLDING TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO
S-SW ON SATURDAY...SO WILL SEE TEMPS RISE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER
THAN ON FRIDAY. READINGS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOWER-MID 80S...
THOUGH DEWPTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

SUNDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

12Z GFS CONTINUES TO PERSIST IN BRINGING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
REGION AS WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS...WHILE MOST OTHER GUIDANCE
REMAINS DRY. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...DO NOTE SOME ENERGY
SLIDING TOWARD THE REGION ON THE EC AS WELL. SO...CONTINUED WITH
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH BEST CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING WITH BEST DIURNAL HEATING.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INDIVIDUAL MODELS DIVERGE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS UNCERTAINTY
CONTINUES WITH STRENGTH OF SHORT WAVES BEING DEPICTED ON EACH
MODEL AS THEY MOVE ALONG IN THE UPPER FLOW. HOWEVER...AS UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER E AND LARGE SURFACE HIGH ESTABLISHES OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...LOOKS LIKE LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY
INCREASES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-
UPPER 80S THOUGH COULD SEE SOME 90+ DEGREES READINGS AS WELL. VERY
IMPRESSIVE WARM SIGNAL CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. EXPECT SEA BREEZE TO
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE TODAY. BETTER CHC OF A SEA BREEZE FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. WEAK SEA BREEZES SHOULD
DEVELOP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS. LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF PATCHY
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG ACROSS NORMALLY PRONE INTERIOR
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF LOCAL MVFR IN SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING AWAY FROM THE S COAST.

MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
GENERALLY W/NW FLOW BUT WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AS
SEABEEZES DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD.

SW WINDS MAY PICK UP DURING SUNDAY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
WITH SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING 5 FEET. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN
CASE A SMALL CRAFT IS NEEDED THERE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 270700
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
300 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WITH A WARMING
TREND THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MID LEVEL TROF AXIS AND WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH NEW ENG BUT
THE COLUMN IS DRY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE LAKES WITH DRY NW
FLOW...SO DRY WEATHER. THE COOLER AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SOME DIURNAL CU BUT A PT- MOSUNNY
DAY. 850 MB TEMPS 10-11C SUPPORT MAXES UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80
DEGREES...COOLER HIGHER TERRAIN. COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. WITH DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL RESULT IN A COOL NIGHT WITH MINS MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH SOME
UPPER 40S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW MA. MILDER LOWER 60S URBAN
CENTER OF BOS AND OUTER CAPE/ACK. PATCHY LATE NIGHT RADIATION FOG
POSSIBLE ACROSS W MA.

FRIDAY...
A BEAUTIFUL DAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO NEW ENG WITH SUNSHINE AND
LIGHT WINDS. MAX TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH SEABREEZES
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY AND WARM WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY FRIDAY AND SAT
* LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY LOOKS TO RETURN NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE CONTINUES IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
A GOOD PORTION OF THIS FORECAST. TYPICAL SUMMER UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN DOMINATES...WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGE THAT WORKS SLOWLY E OUT
OF THE PLAINS STATES INTO CENTRAL CANADA INTO THIS WEEKEND...WHILE
RATHER FLAT FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S.

AS TIME MOVES ON...THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE CONTINUES TO WORK E
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND HUDSON BAY. DO NOTE A FEW WEAK SHORT
WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW...BUT FEEL WITH LARGE SURFACE RIDGING AND
GOOD SUBSIDENCE THESE WILL PROVIDE LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE OP GFS CONTINUE TO TRY AND DEVELOP A
SOMEWHAT MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE AS IT MOVES ALONG IN THE FLOW
AROUND THE SUN INTO MON TIMEFRAME. THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE
ECMWF ALSO SHOWING A SMALL PROGRESSIVE UPPER CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY
MOVING E. HOWEVER...EACH MODEL HANDLES THE SURFACE CONDITIONS
RATHER DIFFERENTLY...WITH CHANCE FOR PRECIP REMAINING ON THE GFS
WHILE REMAINING DRY ON THE EC AND GGEM EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL...APPEARS THESE MINOR FEATURES PRESENT LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIP AS THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WORKS
OFFSHORE...ESTABLISHING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC. ALSO INTERESTING
TO NOTE THAT ALL THREE OP MODEL RUNS /GFS...GGEM AND ECMWF/ TRY TO
MOVE T.S. ERIKA OFF THE SE U.S. COAST AROUND TUE-WED...THOUGH
HOLDING IT OFFSHORE. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

WENT ALONG WITH AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...
THEN TRANSITIONED OVER THE ENSEMBLES AS MODELS DIVERGE ON THEIR
INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...IT DOES LOOK LIKE
A DRY FORECAST.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS WEEKEND.
EXPECT TEMPS TO RUN CLOSE TO OR A BIT WARMER THAN NORMAL. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S EXCEPT WHERE SEA BREEZES
SET UP HOLDING TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO
S-SW ON SATURDAY...SO WILL SEE TEMPS RISE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER
THAN ON FRIDAY. READINGS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOWER-MID 80S...
THOUGH DEWPTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

SUNDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

12Z GFS CONTINUES TO PERSIST IN BRINGING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
REGION AS WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS...WHILE MOST OTHER GUIDANCE
REMAINS DRY. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...DO NOTE SOME ENERGY
SLIDING TOWARD THE REGION ON THE EC AS WELL. SO...CONTINUED WITH
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH BEST CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING WITH BEST DIURNAL HEATING.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INDIVIDUAL MODELS DIVERGE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS UNCERTAINTY
CONTINUES WITH STRENGTH OF SHORT WAVES BEING DEPICTED ON EACH
MODEL AS THEY MOVE ALONG IN THE UPPER FLOW. HOWEVER...AS UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER E AND LARGE SURFACE HIGH ESTABLISHES OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...LOOKS LIKE LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY
INCREASES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-
UPPER 80S THOUGH COULD SEE SOME 90+ DEGREES READINGS AS WELL. VERY
IMPRESSIVE WARM SIGNAL CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. EXPECT SEA BREEZE TO
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE TODAY. BETTER CHC OF A SEA BREEZE FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. WEAK SEA BREEZES SHOULD
DEVELOP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS. LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF PATCHY
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG ACROSS NORMALLY PRONE INTERIOR
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF LOCAL MVFR IN SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING AWAY FROM THE S COAST.

MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
GENERALLY W/NW FLOW BUT WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY ONSHORE OVER
NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON AS
SEABEEZES DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD.

SW WINDS MAY PICK UP DURING SUNDAY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
WITH SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING 5 FEET. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN
CASE A SMALL CRAFT IS NEEDED THERE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 270525
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
125 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION INTO THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER. THE HIGH BUILDS
OFFSHORE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING FOR THE RETURN OF
HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
125 AM UPDATE...
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO N MA AND MOISTURE IN THE
850-700 MB LAYER SUGGESTS A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN AND N MA
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. MINS IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
60-65 URBAN CENTERS AND COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THURSDAY...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS STILL OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH SOME CLOUD-LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND 850 MB. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONVERT
THIS TO DIURNAL CU...BUT STILL MAINTAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. THE MOST CLOUDS WILL BE IN NORTHERN MASS. TEMPS AT 850 MB
WILL BE 10C-11C...WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S...COOLER IN THE HIGHER HILLS AND PARTS OF THE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CHARGE.  FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WITH MIN
TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY AND WARM WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY FRIDAY AND SAT
* LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY LOOKS TO RETURN NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE CONTINUES IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
A GOOD PORTION OF THIS FORECAST. TYPICAL SUMMER UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN DOMINATES...WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGE THAT WORKS SLOWLY E OUT
OF THE PLAINS STATES INTO CENTRAL CANADA INTO THIS WEEKEND...WHILE
RATHER FLAT FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S.

AS TIME MOVES ON...THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE CONTINUES TO WORK E
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND HUDSON BAY. DO NOTE A FEW WEAK SHORT
WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW...BUT FEEL WITH LARGE SURFACE RIDGING AND
GOOD SUBSIDENCE THESE WILL PROVIDE LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE OP GFS CONTINUE TO TRY AND DEVELOP A
SOMEWHAT MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE AS IT MOVES ALONG IN THE FLOW
AROUND THE SUN INTO MON TIMEFRAME. THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE
ECMWF ALSO SHOWING A SMALL PROGRESSIVE UPPER CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY
MOVING E. HOWEVER...EACH MODEL HANDLES THE SURFACE CONDITIONS
RATHER DIFFERENTLY...WITH CHANCE FOR PRECIP REMAINING ON THE GFS
WHILE REMAINING DRY ON THE EC AND GGEM EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL...APPEARS THESE MINOR FEATURES PRESENT LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIP AS THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WORKS
OFFSHORE...ESTABLISHING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC. ALSO INTERESTING
TO NOTE THAT ALL THREE OP MODEL RUNS /GFS...GGEM AND ECMWF/ TRY TO
MOVE T.S. ERIKA OFF THE SE U.S. COAST AROUND TUE-WED...THOUGH
HOLDING IT OFFSHORE. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

WENT ALONG WITH AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...
THEN TRANSITIONED OVER THE ENSEMBLES AS MODELS DIVERGE ON THEIR
INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...IT DOES LOOK LIKE
A DRY FORECAST.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS WEEKEND.
EXPECT TEMPS TO RUN CLOSE TO OR A BIT WARMER THAN NORMAL. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S EXCEPT WHERE SEA BREEZES
SET UP HOLDING TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO
S-SW ON SATURDAY...SO WILL SEE TEMPS RISE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER
THAN ON FRIDAY. READINGS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOWER-MID 80S...
THOUGH DEWPTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

SUNDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

12Z GFS CONTINUES TO PERSIST IN BRINGING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
REGION AS WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS...WHILE MOST OTHER GUIDANCE
REMAINS DRY. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...DO NOTE SOME ENERGY
SLIDING TOWARD THE REGION ON THE EC AS WELL. SO...CONTINUED WITH
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH BEST CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING WITH BEST DIURNAL HEATING.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INDIVIDUAL MODELS DIVERGE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS UNCERTAINTY
CONTINUES WITH STRENGTH OF SHORT WAVES BEING DEPICTED ON EACH
MODEL AS THEY MOVE ALONG IN THE UPPER FLOW. HOWEVER...AS UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER E AND LARGE SURFACE HIGH ESTABLISHES OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...LOOKS LIKE LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY
INCREASES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-
UPPER 80S THOUGH COULD SEE SOME 90+ DEGREES READINGS AS WELL. VERY
IMPRESSIVE WARM SIGNAL CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. EXPECT SEA BREEZE TO
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE TODAY. BETTER CHC OF A SEA BREEZE FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. WEAK SEA BREEZES SHOULD
DEVELOP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS. LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF PATCHY
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG ACROSS NORMALLY PRONE INTERIOR
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF LOCAL MVFR IN SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING AWAY FROM THE S COAST.

MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD.

SW WINDS MAY PICK UP DURING SUNDAY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
WITH SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING 5 FEET. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN
CASE A SMALL CRAFT IS NEEDED THERE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 270525
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
125 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION INTO THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER. THE HIGH BUILDS
OFFSHORE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING FOR THE RETURN OF
HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
125 AM UPDATE...
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO N MA AND MOISTURE IN THE
850-700 MB LAYER SUGGESTS A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN AND N MA
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. MINS IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
60-65 URBAN CENTERS AND COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THURSDAY...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS STILL OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH SOME CLOUD-LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND 850 MB. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONVERT
THIS TO DIURNAL CU...BUT STILL MAINTAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. THE MOST CLOUDS WILL BE IN NORTHERN MASS. TEMPS AT 850 MB
WILL BE 10C-11C...WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S...COOLER IN THE HIGHER HILLS AND PARTS OF THE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CHARGE.  FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WITH MIN
TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY AND WARM WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY FRIDAY AND SAT
* LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY LOOKS TO RETURN NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE CONTINUES IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
A GOOD PORTION OF THIS FORECAST. TYPICAL SUMMER UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN DOMINATES...WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGE THAT WORKS SLOWLY E OUT
OF THE PLAINS STATES INTO CENTRAL CANADA INTO THIS WEEKEND...WHILE
RATHER FLAT FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S.

AS TIME MOVES ON...THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE CONTINUES TO WORK E
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND HUDSON BAY. DO NOTE A FEW WEAK SHORT
WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW...BUT FEEL WITH LARGE SURFACE RIDGING AND
GOOD SUBSIDENCE THESE WILL PROVIDE LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE OP GFS CONTINUE TO TRY AND DEVELOP A
SOMEWHAT MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE AS IT MOVES ALONG IN THE FLOW
AROUND THE SUN INTO MON TIMEFRAME. THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE
ECMWF ALSO SHOWING A SMALL PROGRESSIVE UPPER CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY
MOVING E. HOWEVER...EACH MODEL HANDLES THE SURFACE CONDITIONS
RATHER DIFFERENTLY...WITH CHANCE FOR PRECIP REMAINING ON THE GFS
WHILE REMAINING DRY ON THE EC AND GGEM EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL...APPEARS THESE MINOR FEATURES PRESENT LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIP AS THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WORKS
OFFSHORE...ESTABLISHING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC. ALSO INTERESTING
TO NOTE THAT ALL THREE OP MODEL RUNS /GFS...GGEM AND ECMWF/ TRY TO
MOVE T.S. ERIKA OFF THE SE U.S. COAST AROUND TUE-WED...THOUGH
HOLDING IT OFFSHORE. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

WENT ALONG WITH AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...
THEN TRANSITIONED OVER THE ENSEMBLES AS MODELS DIVERGE ON THEIR
INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...IT DOES LOOK LIKE
A DRY FORECAST.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS WEEKEND.
EXPECT TEMPS TO RUN CLOSE TO OR A BIT WARMER THAN NORMAL. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S EXCEPT WHERE SEA BREEZES
SET UP HOLDING TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO
S-SW ON SATURDAY...SO WILL SEE TEMPS RISE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER
THAN ON FRIDAY. READINGS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOWER-MID 80S...
THOUGH DEWPTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

SUNDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

12Z GFS CONTINUES TO PERSIST IN BRINGING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
REGION AS WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS...WHILE MOST OTHER GUIDANCE
REMAINS DRY. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...DO NOTE SOME ENERGY
SLIDING TOWARD THE REGION ON THE EC AS WELL. SO...CONTINUED WITH
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH BEST CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING WITH BEST DIURNAL HEATING.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INDIVIDUAL MODELS DIVERGE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS UNCERTAINTY
CONTINUES WITH STRENGTH OF SHORT WAVES BEING DEPICTED ON EACH
MODEL AS THEY MOVE ALONG IN THE UPPER FLOW. HOWEVER...AS UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER E AND LARGE SURFACE HIGH ESTABLISHES OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...LOOKS LIKE LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY
INCREASES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-
UPPER 80S THOUGH COULD SEE SOME 90+ DEGREES READINGS AS WELL. VERY
IMPRESSIVE WARM SIGNAL CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. EXPECT SEA BREEZE TO
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE TODAY. BETTER CHC OF A SEA BREEZE FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. WEAK SEA BREEZES SHOULD
DEVELOP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS. LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF PATCHY
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG ACROSS NORMALLY PRONE INTERIOR
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF LOCAL MVFR IN SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING AWAY FROM THE S COAST.

MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD.

SW WINDS MAY PICK UP DURING SUNDAY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
WITH SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING 5 FEET. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN
CASE A SMALL CRAFT IS NEEDED THERE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 270525
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
125 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION INTO THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER. THE HIGH BUILDS
OFFSHORE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING FOR THE RETURN OF
HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
125 AM UPDATE...
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO N MA AND MOISTURE IN THE
850-700 MB LAYER SUGGESTS A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN AND N MA
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. MINS IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
60-65 URBAN CENTERS AND COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THURSDAY...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS STILL OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH SOME CLOUD-LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND 850 MB. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONVERT
THIS TO DIURNAL CU...BUT STILL MAINTAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. THE MOST CLOUDS WILL BE IN NORTHERN MASS. TEMPS AT 850 MB
WILL BE 10C-11C...WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S...COOLER IN THE HIGHER HILLS AND PARTS OF THE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CHARGE.  FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WITH MIN
TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY AND WARM WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY FRIDAY AND SAT
* LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY LOOKS TO RETURN NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE CONTINUES IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
A GOOD PORTION OF THIS FORECAST. TYPICAL SUMMER UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN DOMINATES...WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGE THAT WORKS SLOWLY E OUT
OF THE PLAINS STATES INTO CENTRAL CANADA INTO THIS WEEKEND...WHILE
RATHER FLAT FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S.

AS TIME MOVES ON...THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE CONTINUES TO WORK E
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND HUDSON BAY. DO NOTE A FEW WEAK SHORT
WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW...BUT FEEL WITH LARGE SURFACE RIDGING AND
GOOD SUBSIDENCE THESE WILL PROVIDE LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE OP GFS CONTINUE TO TRY AND DEVELOP A
SOMEWHAT MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE AS IT MOVES ALONG IN THE FLOW
AROUND THE SUN INTO MON TIMEFRAME. THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE
ECMWF ALSO SHOWING A SMALL PROGRESSIVE UPPER CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY
MOVING E. HOWEVER...EACH MODEL HANDLES THE SURFACE CONDITIONS
RATHER DIFFERENTLY...WITH CHANCE FOR PRECIP REMAINING ON THE GFS
WHILE REMAINING DRY ON THE EC AND GGEM EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL...APPEARS THESE MINOR FEATURES PRESENT LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIP AS THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WORKS
OFFSHORE...ESTABLISHING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC. ALSO INTERESTING
TO NOTE THAT ALL THREE OP MODEL RUNS /GFS...GGEM AND ECMWF/ TRY TO
MOVE T.S. ERIKA OFF THE SE U.S. COAST AROUND TUE-WED...THOUGH
HOLDING IT OFFSHORE. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

WENT ALONG WITH AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...
THEN TRANSITIONED OVER THE ENSEMBLES AS MODELS DIVERGE ON THEIR
INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...IT DOES LOOK LIKE
A DRY FORECAST.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS WEEKEND.
EXPECT TEMPS TO RUN CLOSE TO OR A BIT WARMER THAN NORMAL. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S EXCEPT WHERE SEA BREEZES
SET UP HOLDING TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO
S-SW ON SATURDAY...SO WILL SEE TEMPS RISE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER
THAN ON FRIDAY. READINGS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOWER-MID 80S...
THOUGH DEWPTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

SUNDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

12Z GFS CONTINUES TO PERSIST IN BRINGING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
REGION AS WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS...WHILE MOST OTHER GUIDANCE
REMAINS DRY. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...DO NOTE SOME ENERGY
SLIDING TOWARD THE REGION ON THE EC AS WELL. SO...CONTINUED WITH
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH BEST CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING WITH BEST DIURNAL HEATING.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INDIVIDUAL MODELS DIVERGE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS UNCERTAINTY
CONTINUES WITH STRENGTH OF SHORT WAVES BEING DEPICTED ON EACH
MODEL AS THEY MOVE ALONG IN THE UPPER FLOW. HOWEVER...AS UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER E AND LARGE SURFACE HIGH ESTABLISHES OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...LOOKS LIKE LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY
INCREASES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-
UPPER 80S THOUGH COULD SEE SOME 90+ DEGREES READINGS AS WELL. VERY
IMPRESSIVE WARM SIGNAL CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. EXPECT SEA BREEZE TO
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE TODAY. BETTER CHC OF A SEA BREEZE FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. WEAK SEA BREEZES SHOULD
DEVELOP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS. LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF PATCHY
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG ACROSS NORMALLY PRONE INTERIOR
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF LOCAL MVFR IN SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING AWAY FROM THE S COAST.

MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD.

SW WINDS MAY PICK UP DURING SUNDAY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
WITH SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING 5 FEET. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN
CASE A SMALL CRAFT IS NEEDED THERE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 270525
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
125 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION INTO THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER. THE HIGH BUILDS
OFFSHORE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING FOR THE RETURN OF
HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
125 AM UPDATE...
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO N MA AND MOISTURE IN THE
850-700 MB LAYER SUGGESTS A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN AND N MA
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. MINS IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
60-65 URBAN CENTERS AND COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THURSDAY...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS STILL OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH SOME CLOUD-LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND 850 MB. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONVERT
THIS TO DIURNAL CU...BUT STILL MAINTAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. THE MOST CLOUDS WILL BE IN NORTHERN MASS. TEMPS AT 850 MB
WILL BE 10C-11C...WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S...COOLER IN THE HIGHER HILLS AND PARTS OF THE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CHARGE.  FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WITH MIN
TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY AND WARM WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY FRIDAY AND SAT
* LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY LOOKS TO RETURN NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE CONTINUES IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
A GOOD PORTION OF THIS FORECAST. TYPICAL SUMMER UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN DOMINATES...WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGE THAT WORKS SLOWLY E OUT
OF THE PLAINS STATES INTO CENTRAL CANADA INTO THIS WEEKEND...WHILE
RATHER FLAT FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S.

AS TIME MOVES ON...THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE CONTINUES TO WORK E
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND HUDSON BAY. DO NOTE A FEW WEAK SHORT
WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW...BUT FEEL WITH LARGE SURFACE RIDGING AND
GOOD SUBSIDENCE THESE WILL PROVIDE LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE OP GFS CONTINUE TO TRY AND DEVELOP A
SOMEWHAT MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE AS IT MOVES ALONG IN THE FLOW
AROUND THE SUN INTO MON TIMEFRAME. THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE
ECMWF ALSO SHOWING A SMALL PROGRESSIVE UPPER CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY
MOVING E. HOWEVER...EACH MODEL HANDLES THE SURFACE CONDITIONS
RATHER DIFFERENTLY...WITH CHANCE FOR PRECIP REMAINING ON THE GFS
WHILE REMAINING DRY ON THE EC AND GGEM EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL...APPEARS THESE MINOR FEATURES PRESENT LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIP AS THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WORKS
OFFSHORE...ESTABLISHING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC. ALSO INTERESTING
TO NOTE THAT ALL THREE OP MODEL RUNS /GFS...GGEM AND ECMWF/ TRY TO
MOVE T.S. ERIKA OFF THE SE U.S. COAST AROUND TUE-WED...THOUGH
HOLDING IT OFFSHORE. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

WENT ALONG WITH AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...
THEN TRANSITIONED OVER THE ENSEMBLES AS MODELS DIVERGE ON THEIR
INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...IT DOES LOOK LIKE
A DRY FORECAST.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS WEEKEND.
EXPECT TEMPS TO RUN CLOSE TO OR A BIT WARMER THAN NORMAL. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S EXCEPT WHERE SEA BREEZES
SET UP HOLDING TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO
S-SW ON SATURDAY...SO WILL SEE TEMPS RISE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER
THAN ON FRIDAY. READINGS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOWER-MID 80S...
THOUGH DEWPTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

SUNDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

12Z GFS CONTINUES TO PERSIST IN BRINGING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
REGION AS WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS...WHILE MOST OTHER GUIDANCE
REMAINS DRY. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...DO NOTE SOME ENERGY
SLIDING TOWARD THE REGION ON THE EC AS WELL. SO...CONTINUED WITH
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH BEST CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING WITH BEST DIURNAL HEATING.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INDIVIDUAL MODELS DIVERGE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS UNCERTAINTY
CONTINUES WITH STRENGTH OF SHORT WAVES BEING DEPICTED ON EACH
MODEL AS THEY MOVE ALONG IN THE UPPER FLOW. HOWEVER...AS UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER E AND LARGE SURFACE HIGH ESTABLISHES OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...LOOKS LIKE LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY
INCREASES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-
UPPER 80S THOUGH COULD SEE SOME 90+ DEGREES READINGS AS WELL. VERY
IMPRESSIVE WARM SIGNAL CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. EXPECT SEA BREEZE TO
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE TODAY. BETTER CHC OF A SEA BREEZE FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. WEAK SEA BREEZES SHOULD
DEVELOP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS. LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF PATCHY
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG ACROSS NORMALLY PRONE INTERIOR
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF LOCAL MVFR IN SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING AWAY FROM THE S COAST.

MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD.

SW WINDS MAY PICK UP DURING SUNDAY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
WITH SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING 5 FEET. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN
CASE A SMALL CRAFT IS NEEDED THERE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 270525
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
125 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION INTO THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER. THE HIGH BUILDS
OFFSHORE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING FOR THE RETURN OF
HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
125 AM UPDATE...
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO N MA AND MOISTURE IN THE
850-700 MB LAYER SUGGESTS A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN AND N MA
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. MINS IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
60-65 URBAN CENTERS AND COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THURSDAY...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS STILL OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH SOME CLOUD-LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND 850 MB. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONVERT
THIS TO DIURNAL CU...BUT STILL MAINTAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. THE MOST CLOUDS WILL BE IN NORTHERN MASS. TEMPS AT 850 MB
WILL BE 10C-11C...WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S...COOLER IN THE HIGHER HILLS AND PARTS OF THE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CHARGE.  FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WITH MIN
TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY AND WARM WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY FRIDAY AND SAT
* LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY LOOKS TO RETURN NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE CONTINUES IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
A GOOD PORTION OF THIS FORECAST. TYPICAL SUMMER UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN DOMINATES...WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGE THAT WORKS SLOWLY E OUT
OF THE PLAINS STATES INTO CENTRAL CANADA INTO THIS WEEKEND...WHILE
RATHER FLAT FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S.

AS TIME MOVES ON...THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE CONTINUES TO WORK E
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND HUDSON BAY. DO NOTE A FEW WEAK SHORT
WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW...BUT FEEL WITH LARGE SURFACE RIDGING AND
GOOD SUBSIDENCE THESE WILL PROVIDE LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE OP GFS CONTINUE TO TRY AND DEVELOP A
SOMEWHAT MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE AS IT MOVES ALONG IN THE FLOW
AROUND THE SUN INTO MON TIMEFRAME. THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE
ECMWF ALSO SHOWING A SMALL PROGRESSIVE UPPER CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY
MOVING E. HOWEVER...EACH MODEL HANDLES THE SURFACE CONDITIONS
RATHER DIFFERENTLY...WITH CHANCE FOR PRECIP REMAINING ON THE GFS
WHILE REMAINING DRY ON THE EC AND GGEM EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL...APPEARS THESE MINOR FEATURES PRESENT LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIP AS THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WORKS
OFFSHORE...ESTABLISHING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC. ALSO INTERESTING
TO NOTE THAT ALL THREE OP MODEL RUNS /GFS...GGEM AND ECMWF/ TRY TO
MOVE T.S. ERIKA OFF THE SE U.S. COAST AROUND TUE-WED...THOUGH
HOLDING IT OFFSHORE. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

WENT ALONG WITH AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...
THEN TRANSITIONED OVER THE ENSEMBLES AS MODELS DIVERGE ON THEIR
INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...IT DOES LOOK LIKE
A DRY FORECAST.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS WEEKEND.
EXPECT TEMPS TO RUN CLOSE TO OR A BIT WARMER THAN NORMAL. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S EXCEPT WHERE SEA BREEZES
SET UP HOLDING TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO
S-SW ON SATURDAY...SO WILL SEE TEMPS RISE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER
THAN ON FRIDAY. READINGS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOWER-MID 80S...
THOUGH DEWPTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

SUNDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

12Z GFS CONTINUES TO PERSIST IN BRINGING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
REGION AS WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS...WHILE MOST OTHER GUIDANCE
REMAINS DRY. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...DO NOTE SOME ENERGY
SLIDING TOWARD THE REGION ON THE EC AS WELL. SO...CONTINUED WITH
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH BEST CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING WITH BEST DIURNAL HEATING.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INDIVIDUAL MODELS DIVERGE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS UNCERTAINTY
CONTINUES WITH STRENGTH OF SHORT WAVES BEING DEPICTED ON EACH
MODEL AS THEY MOVE ALONG IN THE UPPER FLOW. HOWEVER...AS UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER E AND LARGE SURFACE HIGH ESTABLISHES OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...LOOKS LIKE LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY
INCREASES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-
UPPER 80S THOUGH COULD SEE SOME 90+ DEGREES READINGS AS WELL. VERY
IMPRESSIVE WARM SIGNAL CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. EXPECT SEA BREEZE TO
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE TODAY. BETTER CHC OF A SEA BREEZE FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. WEAK SEA BREEZES SHOULD
DEVELOP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS. LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF PATCHY
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG ACROSS NORMALLY PRONE INTERIOR
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF LOCAL MVFR IN SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING AWAY FROM THE S COAST.

MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD.

SW WINDS MAY PICK UP DURING SUNDAY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
WITH SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING 5 FEET. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN
CASE A SMALL CRAFT IS NEEDED THERE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 270525
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
125 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION INTO THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER. THE HIGH BUILDS
OFFSHORE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING FOR THE RETURN OF
HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
125 AM UPDATE...
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO N MA AND MOISTURE IN THE
850-700 MB LAYER SUGGESTS A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN AND N MA
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK. MINS IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
60-65 URBAN CENTERS AND COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THURSDAY...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS STILL OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH SOME CLOUD-LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND 850 MB. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONVERT
THIS TO DIURNAL CU...BUT STILL MAINTAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. THE MOST CLOUDS WILL BE IN NORTHERN MASS. TEMPS AT 850 MB
WILL BE 10C-11C...WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S...COOLER IN THE HIGHER HILLS AND PARTS OF THE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CHARGE.  FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WITH MIN
TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY AND WARM WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY FRIDAY AND SAT
* LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY LOOKS TO RETURN NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE CONTINUES IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
A GOOD PORTION OF THIS FORECAST. TYPICAL SUMMER UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN DOMINATES...WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGE THAT WORKS SLOWLY E OUT
OF THE PLAINS STATES INTO CENTRAL CANADA INTO THIS WEEKEND...WHILE
RATHER FLAT FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S.

AS TIME MOVES ON...THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE CONTINUES TO WORK E
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND HUDSON BAY. DO NOTE A FEW WEAK SHORT
WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW...BUT FEEL WITH LARGE SURFACE RIDGING AND
GOOD SUBSIDENCE THESE WILL PROVIDE LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE OP GFS CONTINUE TO TRY AND DEVELOP A
SOMEWHAT MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE AS IT MOVES ALONG IN THE FLOW
AROUND THE SUN INTO MON TIMEFRAME. THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE
ECMWF ALSO SHOWING A SMALL PROGRESSIVE UPPER CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY
MOVING E. HOWEVER...EACH MODEL HANDLES THE SURFACE CONDITIONS
RATHER DIFFERENTLY...WITH CHANCE FOR PRECIP REMAINING ON THE GFS
WHILE REMAINING DRY ON THE EC AND GGEM EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL...APPEARS THESE MINOR FEATURES PRESENT LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIP AS THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WORKS
OFFSHORE...ESTABLISHING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC. ALSO INTERESTING
TO NOTE THAT ALL THREE OP MODEL RUNS /GFS...GGEM AND ECMWF/ TRY TO
MOVE T.S. ERIKA OFF THE SE U.S. COAST AROUND TUE-WED...THOUGH
HOLDING IT OFFSHORE. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

WENT ALONG WITH AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...
THEN TRANSITIONED OVER THE ENSEMBLES AS MODELS DIVERGE ON THEIR
INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...IT DOES LOOK LIKE
A DRY FORECAST.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS WEEKEND.
EXPECT TEMPS TO RUN CLOSE TO OR A BIT WARMER THAN NORMAL. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S EXCEPT WHERE SEA BREEZES
SET UP HOLDING TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO
S-SW ON SATURDAY...SO WILL SEE TEMPS RISE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER
THAN ON FRIDAY. READINGS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOWER-MID 80S...
THOUGH DEWPTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

SUNDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

12Z GFS CONTINUES TO PERSIST IN BRINGING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
REGION AS WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS...WHILE MOST OTHER GUIDANCE
REMAINS DRY. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...DO NOTE SOME ENERGY
SLIDING TOWARD THE REGION ON THE EC AS WELL. SO...CONTINUED WITH
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH BEST CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING WITH BEST DIURNAL HEATING.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INDIVIDUAL MODELS DIVERGE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS UNCERTAINTY
CONTINUES WITH STRENGTH OF SHORT WAVES BEING DEPICTED ON EACH
MODEL AS THEY MOVE ALONG IN THE UPPER FLOW. HOWEVER...AS UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER E AND LARGE SURFACE HIGH ESTABLISHES OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...LOOKS LIKE LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY
INCREASES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-
UPPER 80S THOUGH COULD SEE SOME 90+ DEGREES READINGS AS WELL. VERY
IMPRESSIVE WARM SIGNAL CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. EXPECT SEA BREEZE TO
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE TODAY. BETTER CHC OF A SEA BREEZE FRIDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. WEAK SEA BREEZES SHOULD
DEVELOP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS. LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF PATCHY
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG ACROSS NORMALLY PRONE INTERIOR
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF LOCAL MVFR IN SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING AWAY FROM THE S COAST.

MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD.

SW WINDS MAY PICK UP DURING SUNDAY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
WITH SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING 5 FEET. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN
CASE A SMALL CRAFT IS NEEDED THERE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 270130
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
930 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION INTO THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER. THE HIGH BUILDS
OFFSHORE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING FOR THE RETURN OF
HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
930 UPDATE...
AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS VT AND UPSTATE NY WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME MOISTURE IN THE 850-700 MB
LAYER SPILLS INTO W NEW ENG WHICH MAY LEAD TO A FEW CLOUDS.
OTHERWISE...MOCLEAR TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE NORMALLY FOG PRONE LOCATIONS OF CENTRAL AND W MA OVERNIGHT.
LOWERED MIN TEMPS A BIT WITH EXPECTATION OF DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. MINS IN THE 50S...EXCEPT 60-65
URBAN CENTERS AND COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS STILL OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH SOME CLOUD-LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND 850 MB. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONVERT
THIS TO DIURNAL CU...BUT STILL MAINTAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. THE MOST CLOUDS WILL BE IN NORTHERN MASS. TEMPS AT 850 MB
WILL BE 10C-11C...WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S...COOLER IN THE HIGHER HILLS AND PARTS OF THE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CHARGE.  FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WITH MIN
TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY AND WARM WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY FRIDAY AND SAT
* LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY LOOKS TO RETURN NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE CONTINUES IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
A GOOD PORTION OF THIS FORECAST. TYPICAL SUMMER UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN DOMINATES...WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGE THAT WORKS SLOWLY E OUT
OF THE PLAINS STATES INTO CENTRAL CANADA INTO THIS WEEKEND...WHILE
RATHER FLAT FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S.

AS TIME MOVES ON...THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE CONTINUES TO WORK E
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND HUDSON BAY. DO NOTE A FEW WEAK SHORT
WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW...BUT FEEL WITH LARGE SURFACE RIDGING AND
GOOD SUBSIDENCE THESE WILL PROVIDE LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE OP GFS CONTINUE TO TRY AND DEVELOP A
SOMEWHAT MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE AS IT MOVES ALONG IN THE FLOW
AROUND THE SUN INTO MON TIMEFRAME. THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE
ECMWF ALSO SHOWING A SMALL PROGRESSIVE UPPER CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY
MOVING E. HOWEVER...EACH MODEL HANDLES THE SURFACE CONDITIONS
RATHER DIFFERENTLY...WITH CHANCE FOR PRECIP REMAINING ON THE GFS
WHILE REMAINING DRY ON THE EC AND GGEM EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL...APPEARS THESE MINOR FEATURES PRESENT LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIP AS THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WORKS
OFFSHORE...ESTABLISHING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC. ALSO INTERESTING
TO NOTE THAT ALL THREE OP MODEL RUNS /GFS...GGEM AND ECMWF/ TRY TO
MOVE T.S. ERIKA OFF THE SE U.S. COAST AROUND TUE-WED...THOUGH
HOLDING IT OFFSHORE. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

WENT ALONG WITH AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...
THEN TRANSITIONED OVER THE ENSEMBLES AS MODELS DIVERGE ON THEIR
INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...IT DOES LOOK LIKE
A DRY FORECAST.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS WEEKEND.
EXPECT TEMPS TO RUN CLOSE TO OR A BIT WARMER THAN NORMAL. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S EXCEPT WHERE SEA BREEZES
SET UP HOLDING TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO
S-SW ON SATURDAY...SO WILL SEE TEMPS RISE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER
THAN ON FRIDAY. READINGS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOWER-MID 80S...
THOUGH DEWPTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

SUNDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

12Z GFS CONTINUES TO PERSIST IN BRINGING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
REGION AS WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS...WHILE MOST OTHER GUIDANCE
REMAINS DRY. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...DO NOTE SOME ENERGY
SLIDING TOWARD THE REGION ON THE EC AS WELL. SO...CONTINUED WITH
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH BEST CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING WITH BEST DIURNAL HEATING.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INDIVIDUAL MODELS DIVERGE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS UNCERTAINTY
CONTINUES WITH STRENGTH OF SHORT WAVES BEING DEPICTED ON EACH
MODEL AS THEY MOVE ALONG IN THE UPPER FLOW. HOWEVER...AS UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER E AND LARGE SURFACE HIGH ESTABLISHES OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...LOOKS LIKE LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY
INCREASES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-
UPPER 80S THOUGH COULD SEE SOME 90+ DEGREES READINGS AS WELL. VERY
IMPRESSIVE WARM SIGNAL CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT
INTERIOR VALLEYS.

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG LATE AT
NIGHT IN THE INTERIOR.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. WEAK SEA BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP
EACH DAY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS. LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF PATCHY
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG ACROSS NORMALLY PRONE INTERIOR
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF LOCAL MVFR IN SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING AWAY FROM THE S COAST.

MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD.

SW WINDS MAY PICK UP DURING SUNDAY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
WITH SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING 5 FEET. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN
CASE A SMALL CRAFT IS NEEDED THERE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 270130
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
930 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION INTO THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER. THE HIGH BUILDS
OFFSHORE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING FOR THE RETURN OF
HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
930 UPDATE...
AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS VT AND UPSTATE NY WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME MOISTURE IN THE 850-700 MB
LAYER SPILLS INTO W NEW ENG WHICH MAY LEAD TO A FEW CLOUDS.
OTHERWISE...MOCLEAR TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE NORMALLY FOG PRONE LOCATIONS OF CENTRAL AND W MA OVERNIGHT.
LOWERED MIN TEMPS A BIT WITH EXPECTATION OF DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. MINS IN THE 50S...EXCEPT 60-65
URBAN CENTERS AND COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS STILL OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH SOME CLOUD-LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND 850 MB. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONVERT
THIS TO DIURNAL CU...BUT STILL MAINTAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. THE MOST CLOUDS WILL BE IN NORTHERN MASS. TEMPS AT 850 MB
WILL BE 10C-11C...WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S...COOLER IN THE HIGHER HILLS AND PARTS OF THE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CHARGE.  FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WITH MIN
TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY AND WARM WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY FRIDAY AND SAT
* LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY LOOKS TO RETURN NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE CONTINUES IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
A GOOD PORTION OF THIS FORECAST. TYPICAL SUMMER UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN DOMINATES...WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGE THAT WORKS SLOWLY E OUT
OF THE PLAINS STATES INTO CENTRAL CANADA INTO THIS WEEKEND...WHILE
RATHER FLAT FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S.

AS TIME MOVES ON...THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE CONTINUES TO WORK E
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND HUDSON BAY. DO NOTE A FEW WEAK SHORT
WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW...BUT FEEL WITH LARGE SURFACE RIDGING AND
GOOD SUBSIDENCE THESE WILL PROVIDE LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE OP GFS CONTINUE TO TRY AND DEVELOP A
SOMEWHAT MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE AS IT MOVES ALONG IN THE FLOW
AROUND THE SUN INTO MON TIMEFRAME. THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE
ECMWF ALSO SHOWING A SMALL PROGRESSIVE UPPER CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY
MOVING E. HOWEVER...EACH MODEL HANDLES THE SURFACE CONDITIONS
RATHER DIFFERENTLY...WITH CHANCE FOR PRECIP REMAINING ON THE GFS
WHILE REMAINING DRY ON THE EC AND GGEM EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL...APPEARS THESE MINOR FEATURES PRESENT LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIP AS THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WORKS
OFFSHORE...ESTABLISHING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC. ALSO INTERESTING
TO NOTE THAT ALL THREE OP MODEL RUNS /GFS...GGEM AND ECMWF/ TRY TO
MOVE T.S. ERIKA OFF THE SE U.S. COAST AROUND TUE-WED...THOUGH
HOLDING IT OFFSHORE. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

WENT ALONG WITH AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...
THEN TRANSITIONED OVER THE ENSEMBLES AS MODELS DIVERGE ON THEIR
INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...IT DOES LOOK LIKE
A DRY FORECAST.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS WEEKEND.
EXPECT TEMPS TO RUN CLOSE TO OR A BIT WARMER THAN NORMAL. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S EXCEPT WHERE SEA BREEZES
SET UP HOLDING TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO
S-SW ON SATURDAY...SO WILL SEE TEMPS RISE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER
THAN ON FRIDAY. READINGS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOWER-MID 80S...
THOUGH DEWPTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

SUNDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

12Z GFS CONTINUES TO PERSIST IN BRINGING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
REGION AS WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS...WHILE MOST OTHER GUIDANCE
REMAINS DRY. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...DO NOTE SOME ENERGY
SLIDING TOWARD THE REGION ON THE EC AS WELL. SO...CONTINUED WITH
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH BEST CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING WITH BEST DIURNAL HEATING.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INDIVIDUAL MODELS DIVERGE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS UNCERTAINTY
CONTINUES WITH STRENGTH OF SHORT WAVES BEING DEPICTED ON EACH
MODEL AS THEY MOVE ALONG IN THE UPPER FLOW. HOWEVER...AS UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER E AND LARGE SURFACE HIGH ESTABLISHES OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...LOOKS LIKE LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY
INCREASES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-
UPPER 80S THOUGH COULD SEE SOME 90+ DEGREES READINGS AS WELL. VERY
IMPRESSIVE WARM SIGNAL CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT
INTERIOR VALLEYS.

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG LATE AT
NIGHT IN THE INTERIOR.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. WEAK SEA BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP
EACH DAY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS. LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF PATCHY
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG ACROSS NORMALLY PRONE INTERIOR
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF LOCAL MVFR IN SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING AWAY FROM THE S COAST.

MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD.

SW WINDS MAY PICK UP DURING SUNDAY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
WITH SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING 5 FEET. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN
CASE A SMALL CRAFT IS NEEDED THERE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 262336
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
736 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION INTO THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER. THE HIGH BUILDS
OFFSHORE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING FOR THE RETURN OF
HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

725 PM UPDATE...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THIN OUT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EARLY THIS
EVENING AS SEEN ON 23Z OBS AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. MOST
LOCATIONS REPORTING EITHER FEW CLOUDS AROUND 5-6KFT OR CLEAR
SKIES. DECK OF LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TRYING TO MOVE E OUT OF NY
STATE TENDING TO DISSIPATE AS IT PUSHES TOWARD THE CT VALLEY AND
BERKSHIRES.

NOTING DEWPTS CONTINUE TO FALL BACK AS DRIER AIR PUSHES IN ON
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS. STILL SOME HIGHER DEWPTS...AROUND 60
DEGREES...ALONG S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS BUT WILL FALL
BACK THERE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL.

EXPECT ONLY PATCHY HIGH THIN CLOUDS TO LINGER OVERNIGHT...THOUGH
THIS SHOULD ALSO MOVE NE. ANY CLOUDS THAT DO WORK INTO W MA/N
CENTRAL CT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS THE DRIER AIR WORKS
IN. DID LEAVE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF N CENTRAL
AND W MA AFTER 06Z THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK OR SO...THE NORMALLY
PRONE VALLEY LOCATIONS.

TEMPS WILL LINGER IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT...THEN COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN. CURRENT FORECASTED LOWS
LOOK ON TARGET SO ONLY MADE ADJUSTMENTS ON NEAR TERM TEMPS/DEWPTS
TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE BUT ALSO BROUGHT NEAR TERM
CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD IN WITH PLENTY
OF SUBSIDENCE. UPPER TROUGH CONTAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
THROUGH THE COLUMN...BUT MOST OF THIS WILL REMAIN IN NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND UPSTATE NEW YORK. SO THE FORECAST WILL BE FAIR AND
DRY. PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK ENOUGH FOR SHELTERED AREAS TO
DECOUPLE...BUT EVEN EXPOSED AREAS SHOULD HAVE DIMINISHING WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS. INTERIOR AREAS SHOULD COOL TO NEAR DEW POINT WITH
VALUES IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S...COASTAL AREAS AND URBAN CENTERS
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS STILL OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH SOME CLOUD-LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND 850 MB. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONVERT
THIS TO DIURNAL CU...BUT STILL MAINTAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. THE MOST CLOUDS WILL BE IN NORTHERN MASS. TEMPS AT 850 MB
WILL BE 10C-11C...WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S...COOLER IN THE HIGHER HILLS AND PARTS OF THE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CHARGE.  FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WITH MIN
TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY AND WARM WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY FRIDAY AND SAT
* LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY LOOKS TO RETURN NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE CONTINUES IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
A GOOD PORTION OF THIS FORECAST. TYPICAL SUMMER UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN DOMINATES...WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGE THAT WORKS SLOWLY E OUT
OF THE PLAINS STATES INTO CENTRAL CANADA INTO THIS WEEKEND...WHILE
RATHER FLAT FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S.

AS TIME MOVES ON...THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE CONTINUES TO WORK E
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND HUDSON BAY. DO NOTE A FEW WEAK SHORT
WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW...BUT FEEL WITH LARGE SURFACE RIDGING AND
GOOD SUBSIDENCE THESE WILL PROVIDE LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE OP GFS CONTINUE TO TRY AND DEVELOP A
SOMEWHAT MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE AS IT MOVES ALONG IN THE FLOW
AROUND THE SUN INTO MON TIMEFRAME. THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE
ECMWF ALSO SHOWING A SMALL PROGRESSIVE UPPER CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY
MOVING E. HOWEVER...EACH MODEL HANDLES THE SURFACE CONDITIONS
RATHER DIFFERENTLY...WITH CHANCE FOR PRECIP REMAINING ON THE GFS
WHILE REMAINING DRY ON THE EC AND GGEM EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL...APPEARS THESE MINOR FEATURES PRESENT LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIP AS THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WORKS
OFFSHORE...ESTABLISHING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC. ALSO INTERESTING
TO NOTE THAT ALL THREE OP MODEL RUNS /GFS...GGEM AND ECMWF/ TRY TO
MOVE T.S. ERIKA OFF THE SE U.S. COAST AROUND TUE-WED...THOUGH
HOLDING IT OFFSHORE. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

WENT ALONG WITH AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...
THEN TRANSITIONED OVER THE ENSEMBLES AS MODELS DIVERGE ON THEIR
INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...IT DOES LOOK LIKE
A DRY FORECAST.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS WEEKEND.
EXPECT TEMPS TO RUN CLOSE TO OR A BIT WARMER THAN NORMAL. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S EXCEPT WHERE SEA BREEZES
SET UP HOLDING TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO
S-SW ON SATURDAY...SO WILL SEE TEMPS RISE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER
THAN ON FRIDAY. READINGS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOWER-MID 80S...
THOUGH DEWPTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

SUNDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

12Z GFS CONTINUES TO PERSIST IN BRINGING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
REGION AS WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS...WHILE MOST OTHER GUIDANCE
REMAINS DRY. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...DO NOTE SOME ENERGY
SLIDING TOWARD THE REGION ON THE EC AS WELL. SO...CONTINUED WITH
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH BEST CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING WITH BEST DIURNAL HEATING.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INDIVIDUAL MODELS DIVERGE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS UNCERTAINTY
CONTINUES WITH STRENGTH OF SHORT WAVES BEING DEPICTED ON EACH
MODEL AS THEY MOVE ALONG IN THE UPPER FLOW. HOWEVER...AS UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER E AND LARGE SURFACE HIGH ESTABLISHES OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...LOOKS LIKE LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY
INCREASES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-
UPPER 80S THOUGH COULD SEE SOME 90+ DEGREES READINGS AS WELL. VERY
IMPRESSIVE WARM SIGNAL CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT
INTERIOR VALLEYS.

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG LATE AT
NIGHT IN THE INTERIOR.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. WEAK SEA BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP
EACH DAY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS. LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF PATCHY
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG ACROSS NORMALLY PRONE INTERIOR
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF LOCAL MVFR IN SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING AWAY FROM THE S COAST.

MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD.

SW WINDS MAY PICK UP DURING SUNDAY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
WITH SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING 5 FEET. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN
CASE A SMALL CRAFT IS NEEDED THERE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 262336
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
736 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION INTO THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER. THE HIGH BUILDS
OFFSHORE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING FOR THE RETURN OF
HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

725 PM UPDATE...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THIN OUT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EARLY THIS
EVENING AS SEEN ON 23Z OBS AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. MOST
LOCATIONS REPORTING EITHER FEW CLOUDS AROUND 5-6KFT OR CLEAR
SKIES. DECK OF LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TRYING TO MOVE E OUT OF NY
STATE TENDING TO DISSIPATE AS IT PUSHES TOWARD THE CT VALLEY AND
BERKSHIRES.

NOTING DEWPTS CONTINUE TO FALL BACK AS DRIER AIR PUSHES IN ON
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS. STILL SOME HIGHER DEWPTS...AROUND 60
DEGREES...ALONG S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS BUT WILL FALL
BACK THERE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL.

EXPECT ONLY PATCHY HIGH THIN CLOUDS TO LINGER OVERNIGHT...THOUGH
THIS SHOULD ALSO MOVE NE. ANY CLOUDS THAT DO WORK INTO W MA/N
CENTRAL CT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS THE DRIER AIR WORKS
IN. DID LEAVE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF N CENTRAL
AND W MA AFTER 06Z THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK OR SO...THE NORMALLY
PRONE VALLEY LOCATIONS.

TEMPS WILL LINGER IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT...THEN COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN. CURRENT FORECASTED LOWS
LOOK ON TARGET SO ONLY MADE ADJUSTMENTS ON NEAR TERM TEMPS/DEWPTS
TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE BUT ALSO BROUGHT NEAR TERM
CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD IN WITH PLENTY
OF SUBSIDENCE. UPPER TROUGH CONTAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
THROUGH THE COLUMN...BUT MOST OF THIS WILL REMAIN IN NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND UPSTATE NEW YORK. SO THE FORECAST WILL BE FAIR AND
DRY. PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK ENOUGH FOR SHELTERED AREAS TO
DECOUPLE...BUT EVEN EXPOSED AREAS SHOULD HAVE DIMINISHING WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS. INTERIOR AREAS SHOULD COOL TO NEAR DEW POINT WITH
VALUES IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S...COASTAL AREAS AND URBAN CENTERS
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS STILL OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH SOME CLOUD-LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND 850 MB. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONVERT
THIS TO DIURNAL CU...BUT STILL MAINTAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. THE MOST CLOUDS WILL BE IN NORTHERN MASS. TEMPS AT 850 MB
WILL BE 10C-11C...WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S...COOLER IN THE HIGHER HILLS AND PARTS OF THE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CHARGE.  FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WITH MIN
TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY AND WARM WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY FRIDAY AND SAT
* LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY LOOKS TO RETURN NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE CONTINUES IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
A GOOD PORTION OF THIS FORECAST. TYPICAL SUMMER UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN DOMINATES...WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGE THAT WORKS SLOWLY E OUT
OF THE PLAINS STATES INTO CENTRAL CANADA INTO THIS WEEKEND...WHILE
RATHER FLAT FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S.

AS TIME MOVES ON...THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE CONTINUES TO WORK E
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND HUDSON BAY. DO NOTE A FEW WEAK SHORT
WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW...BUT FEEL WITH LARGE SURFACE RIDGING AND
GOOD SUBSIDENCE THESE WILL PROVIDE LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE OP GFS CONTINUE TO TRY AND DEVELOP A
SOMEWHAT MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE AS IT MOVES ALONG IN THE FLOW
AROUND THE SUN INTO MON TIMEFRAME. THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE
ECMWF ALSO SHOWING A SMALL PROGRESSIVE UPPER CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY
MOVING E. HOWEVER...EACH MODEL HANDLES THE SURFACE CONDITIONS
RATHER DIFFERENTLY...WITH CHANCE FOR PRECIP REMAINING ON THE GFS
WHILE REMAINING DRY ON THE EC AND GGEM EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL...APPEARS THESE MINOR FEATURES PRESENT LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIP AS THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WORKS
OFFSHORE...ESTABLISHING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC. ALSO INTERESTING
TO NOTE THAT ALL THREE OP MODEL RUNS /GFS...GGEM AND ECMWF/ TRY TO
MOVE T.S. ERIKA OFF THE SE U.S. COAST AROUND TUE-WED...THOUGH
HOLDING IT OFFSHORE. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

WENT ALONG WITH AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...
THEN TRANSITIONED OVER THE ENSEMBLES AS MODELS DIVERGE ON THEIR
INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...IT DOES LOOK LIKE
A DRY FORECAST.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS WEEKEND.
EXPECT TEMPS TO RUN CLOSE TO OR A BIT WARMER THAN NORMAL. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S EXCEPT WHERE SEA BREEZES
SET UP HOLDING TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO
S-SW ON SATURDAY...SO WILL SEE TEMPS RISE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER
THAN ON FRIDAY. READINGS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOWER-MID 80S...
THOUGH DEWPTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

SUNDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

12Z GFS CONTINUES TO PERSIST IN BRINGING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
REGION AS WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS...WHILE MOST OTHER GUIDANCE
REMAINS DRY. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...DO NOTE SOME ENERGY
SLIDING TOWARD THE REGION ON THE EC AS WELL. SO...CONTINUED WITH
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH BEST CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING WITH BEST DIURNAL HEATING.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INDIVIDUAL MODELS DIVERGE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS UNCERTAINTY
CONTINUES WITH STRENGTH OF SHORT WAVES BEING DEPICTED ON EACH
MODEL AS THEY MOVE ALONG IN THE UPPER FLOW. HOWEVER...AS UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER E AND LARGE SURFACE HIGH ESTABLISHES OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...LOOKS LIKE LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY
INCREASES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-
UPPER 80S THOUGH COULD SEE SOME 90+ DEGREES READINGS AS WELL. VERY
IMPRESSIVE WARM SIGNAL CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT
INTERIOR VALLEYS.

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG LATE AT
NIGHT IN THE INTERIOR.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. WEAK SEA BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP
EACH DAY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS. LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF PATCHY
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG ACROSS NORMALLY PRONE INTERIOR
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF LOCAL MVFR IN SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING AWAY FROM THE S COAST.

MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD.

SW WINDS MAY PICK UP DURING SUNDAY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
WITH SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING 5 FEET. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN
CASE A SMALL CRAFT IS NEEDED THERE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 262336
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
736 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION INTO THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER. THE HIGH BUILDS
OFFSHORE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING FOR THE RETURN OF
HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

725 PM UPDATE...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THIN OUT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EARLY THIS
EVENING AS SEEN ON 23Z OBS AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. MOST
LOCATIONS REPORTING EITHER FEW CLOUDS AROUND 5-6KFT OR CLEAR
SKIES. DECK OF LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TRYING TO MOVE E OUT OF NY
STATE TENDING TO DISSIPATE AS IT PUSHES TOWARD THE CT VALLEY AND
BERKSHIRES.

NOTING DEWPTS CONTINUE TO FALL BACK AS DRIER AIR PUSHES IN ON
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS. STILL SOME HIGHER DEWPTS...AROUND 60
DEGREES...ALONG S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS BUT WILL FALL
BACK THERE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL.

EXPECT ONLY PATCHY HIGH THIN CLOUDS TO LINGER OVERNIGHT...THOUGH
THIS SHOULD ALSO MOVE NE. ANY CLOUDS THAT DO WORK INTO W MA/N
CENTRAL CT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS THE DRIER AIR WORKS
IN. DID LEAVE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF N CENTRAL
AND W MA AFTER 06Z THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK OR SO...THE NORMALLY
PRONE VALLEY LOCATIONS.

TEMPS WILL LINGER IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT...THEN COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN. CURRENT FORECASTED LOWS
LOOK ON TARGET SO ONLY MADE ADJUSTMENTS ON NEAR TERM TEMPS/DEWPTS
TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE BUT ALSO BROUGHT NEAR TERM
CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD IN WITH PLENTY
OF SUBSIDENCE. UPPER TROUGH CONTAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
THROUGH THE COLUMN...BUT MOST OF THIS WILL REMAIN IN NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND UPSTATE NEW YORK. SO THE FORECAST WILL BE FAIR AND
DRY. PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK ENOUGH FOR SHELTERED AREAS TO
DECOUPLE...BUT EVEN EXPOSED AREAS SHOULD HAVE DIMINISHING WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS. INTERIOR AREAS SHOULD COOL TO NEAR DEW POINT WITH
VALUES IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S...COASTAL AREAS AND URBAN CENTERS
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS STILL OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH SOME CLOUD-LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND 850 MB. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONVERT
THIS TO DIURNAL CU...BUT STILL MAINTAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. THE MOST CLOUDS WILL BE IN NORTHERN MASS. TEMPS AT 850 MB
WILL BE 10C-11C...WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S...COOLER IN THE HIGHER HILLS AND PARTS OF THE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CHARGE.  FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WITH MIN
TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY AND WARM WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY FRIDAY AND SAT
* LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY LOOKS TO RETURN NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE CONTINUES IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
A GOOD PORTION OF THIS FORECAST. TYPICAL SUMMER UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN DOMINATES...WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGE THAT WORKS SLOWLY E OUT
OF THE PLAINS STATES INTO CENTRAL CANADA INTO THIS WEEKEND...WHILE
RATHER FLAT FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S.

AS TIME MOVES ON...THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE CONTINUES TO WORK E
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND HUDSON BAY. DO NOTE A FEW WEAK SHORT
WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW...BUT FEEL WITH LARGE SURFACE RIDGING AND
GOOD SUBSIDENCE THESE WILL PROVIDE LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE OP GFS CONTINUE TO TRY AND DEVELOP A
SOMEWHAT MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE AS IT MOVES ALONG IN THE FLOW
AROUND THE SUN INTO MON TIMEFRAME. THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE
ECMWF ALSO SHOWING A SMALL PROGRESSIVE UPPER CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY
MOVING E. HOWEVER...EACH MODEL HANDLES THE SURFACE CONDITIONS
RATHER DIFFERENTLY...WITH CHANCE FOR PRECIP REMAINING ON THE GFS
WHILE REMAINING DRY ON THE EC AND GGEM EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL...APPEARS THESE MINOR FEATURES PRESENT LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIP AS THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WORKS
OFFSHORE...ESTABLISHING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC. ALSO INTERESTING
TO NOTE THAT ALL THREE OP MODEL RUNS /GFS...GGEM AND ECMWF/ TRY TO
MOVE T.S. ERIKA OFF THE SE U.S. COAST AROUND TUE-WED...THOUGH
HOLDING IT OFFSHORE. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

WENT ALONG WITH AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...
THEN TRANSITIONED OVER THE ENSEMBLES AS MODELS DIVERGE ON THEIR
INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...IT DOES LOOK LIKE
A DRY FORECAST.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS WEEKEND.
EXPECT TEMPS TO RUN CLOSE TO OR A BIT WARMER THAN NORMAL. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S EXCEPT WHERE SEA BREEZES
SET UP HOLDING TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO
S-SW ON SATURDAY...SO WILL SEE TEMPS RISE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER
THAN ON FRIDAY. READINGS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOWER-MID 80S...
THOUGH DEWPTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

SUNDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

12Z GFS CONTINUES TO PERSIST IN BRINGING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
REGION AS WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS...WHILE MOST OTHER GUIDANCE
REMAINS DRY. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...DO NOTE SOME ENERGY
SLIDING TOWARD THE REGION ON THE EC AS WELL. SO...CONTINUED WITH
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH BEST CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING WITH BEST DIURNAL HEATING.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INDIVIDUAL MODELS DIVERGE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS UNCERTAINTY
CONTINUES WITH STRENGTH OF SHORT WAVES BEING DEPICTED ON EACH
MODEL AS THEY MOVE ALONG IN THE UPPER FLOW. HOWEVER...AS UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER E AND LARGE SURFACE HIGH ESTABLISHES OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...LOOKS LIKE LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY
INCREASES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-
UPPER 80S THOUGH COULD SEE SOME 90+ DEGREES READINGS AS WELL. VERY
IMPRESSIVE WARM SIGNAL CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT
INTERIOR VALLEYS.

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG LATE AT
NIGHT IN THE INTERIOR.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. WEAK SEA BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP
EACH DAY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS. LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF PATCHY
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG ACROSS NORMALLY PRONE INTERIOR
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF LOCAL MVFR IN SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING AWAY FROM THE S COAST.

MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD.

SW WINDS MAY PICK UP DURING SUNDAY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
WITH SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING 5 FEET. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN
CASE A SMALL CRAFT IS NEEDED THERE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 262336
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
736 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION INTO THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER. THE HIGH BUILDS
OFFSHORE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING FOR THE RETURN OF
HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

725 PM UPDATE...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THIN OUT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EARLY THIS
EVENING AS SEEN ON 23Z OBS AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. MOST
LOCATIONS REPORTING EITHER FEW CLOUDS AROUND 5-6KFT OR CLEAR
SKIES. DECK OF LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TRYING TO MOVE E OUT OF NY
STATE TENDING TO DISSIPATE AS IT PUSHES TOWARD THE CT VALLEY AND
BERKSHIRES.

NOTING DEWPTS CONTINUE TO FALL BACK AS DRIER AIR PUSHES IN ON
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS. STILL SOME HIGHER DEWPTS...AROUND 60
DEGREES...ALONG S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS BUT WILL FALL
BACK THERE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL.

EXPECT ONLY PATCHY HIGH THIN CLOUDS TO LINGER OVERNIGHT...THOUGH
THIS SHOULD ALSO MOVE NE. ANY CLOUDS THAT DO WORK INTO W MA/N
CENTRAL CT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS THE DRIER AIR WORKS
IN. DID LEAVE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF N CENTRAL
AND W MA AFTER 06Z THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK OR SO...THE NORMALLY
PRONE VALLEY LOCATIONS.

TEMPS WILL LINGER IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT...THEN COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN. CURRENT FORECASTED LOWS
LOOK ON TARGET SO ONLY MADE ADJUSTMENTS ON NEAR TERM TEMPS/DEWPTS
TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE BUT ALSO BROUGHT NEAR TERM
CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD IN WITH PLENTY
OF SUBSIDENCE. UPPER TROUGH CONTAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
THROUGH THE COLUMN...BUT MOST OF THIS WILL REMAIN IN NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND UPSTATE NEW YORK. SO THE FORECAST WILL BE FAIR AND
DRY. PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK ENOUGH FOR SHELTERED AREAS TO
DECOUPLE...BUT EVEN EXPOSED AREAS SHOULD HAVE DIMINISHING WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS. INTERIOR AREAS SHOULD COOL TO NEAR DEW POINT WITH
VALUES IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S...COASTAL AREAS AND URBAN CENTERS
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS STILL OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH SOME CLOUD-LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND 850 MB. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONVERT
THIS TO DIURNAL CU...BUT STILL MAINTAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. THE MOST CLOUDS WILL BE IN NORTHERN MASS. TEMPS AT 850 MB
WILL BE 10C-11C...WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S...COOLER IN THE HIGHER HILLS AND PARTS OF THE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CHARGE.  FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WITH MIN
TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY AND WARM WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY FRIDAY AND SAT
* LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY LOOKS TO RETURN NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE CONTINUES IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
A GOOD PORTION OF THIS FORECAST. TYPICAL SUMMER UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN DOMINATES...WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGE THAT WORKS SLOWLY E OUT
OF THE PLAINS STATES INTO CENTRAL CANADA INTO THIS WEEKEND...WHILE
RATHER FLAT FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S.

AS TIME MOVES ON...THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE CONTINUES TO WORK E
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND HUDSON BAY. DO NOTE A FEW WEAK SHORT
WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW...BUT FEEL WITH LARGE SURFACE RIDGING AND
GOOD SUBSIDENCE THESE WILL PROVIDE LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE OP GFS CONTINUE TO TRY AND DEVELOP A
SOMEWHAT MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE AS IT MOVES ALONG IN THE FLOW
AROUND THE SUN INTO MON TIMEFRAME. THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE
ECMWF ALSO SHOWING A SMALL PROGRESSIVE UPPER CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY
MOVING E. HOWEVER...EACH MODEL HANDLES THE SURFACE CONDITIONS
RATHER DIFFERENTLY...WITH CHANCE FOR PRECIP REMAINING ON THE GFS
WHILE REMAINING DRY ON THE EC AND GGEM EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL...APPEARS THESE MINOR FEATURES PRESENT LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIP AS THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WORKS
OFFSHORE...ESTABLISHING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC. ALSO INTERESTING
TO NOTE THAT ALL THREE OP MODEL RUNS /GFS...GGEM AND ECMWF/ TRY TO
MOVE T.S. ERIKA OFF THE SE U.S. COAST AROUND TUE-WED...THOUGH
HOLDING IT OFFSHORE. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

WENT ALONG WITH AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...
THEN TRANSITIONED OVER THE ENSEMBLES AS MODELS DIVERGE ON THEIR
INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...IT DOES LOOK LIKE
A DRY FORECAST.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS WEEKEND.
EXPECT TEMPS TO RUN CLOSE TO OR A BIT WARMER THAN NORMAL. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S EXCEPT WHERE SEA BREEZES
SET UP HOLDING TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO
S-SW ON SATURDAY...SO WILL SEE TEMPS RISE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER
THAN ON FRIDAY. READINGS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOWER-MID 80S...
THOUGH DEWPTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

SUNDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

12Z GFS CONTINUES TO PERSIST IN BRINGING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
REGION AS WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS...WHILE MOST OTHER GUIDANCE
REMAINS DRY. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...DO NOTE SOME ENERGY
SLIDING TOWARD THE REGION ON THE EC AS WELL. SO...CONTINUED WITH
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH BEST CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING WITH BEST DIURNAL HEATING.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INDIVIDUAL MODELS DIVERGE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS UNCERTAINTY
CONTINUES WITH STRENGTH OF SHORT WAVES BEING DEPICTED ON EACH
MODEL AS THEY MOVE ALONG IN THE UPPER FLOW. HOWEVER...AS UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER E AND LARGE SURFACE HIGH ESTABLISHES OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...LOOKS LIKE LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY
INCREASES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-
UPPER 80S THOUGH COULD SEE SOME 90+ DEGREES READINGS AS WELL. VERY
IMPRESSIVE WARM SIGNAL CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT
INTERIOR VALLEYS.

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG LATE AT
NIGHT IN THE INTERIOR.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. WEAK SEA BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP
EACH DAY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS. LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF PATCHY
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG ACROSS NORMALLY PRONE INTERIOR
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF LOCAL MVFR IN SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING AWAY FROM THE S COAST.

MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD.

SW WINDS MAY PICK UP DURING SUNDAY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
WITH SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING 5 FEET. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN
CASE A SMALL CRAFT IS NEEDED THERE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 262336
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
736 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION INTO THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER. THE HIGH BUILDS
OFFSHORE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING FOR THE RETURN OF
HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

725 PM UPDATE...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THIN OUT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EARLY THIS
EVENING AS SEEN ON 23Z OBS AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. MOST
LOCATIONS REPORTING EITHER FEW CLOUDS AROUND 5-6KFT OR CLEAR
SKIES. DECK OF LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TRYING TO MOVE E OUT OF NY
STATE TENDING TO DISSIPATE AS IT PUSHES TOWARD THE CT VALLEY AND
BERKSHIRES.

NOTING DEWPTS CONTINUE TO FALL BACK AS DRIER AIR PUSHES IN ON
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS. STILL SOME HIGHER DEWPTS...AROUND 60
DEGREES...ALONG S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS BUT WILL FALL
BACK THERE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL.

EXPECT ONLY PATCHY HIGH THIN CLOUDS TO LINGER OVERNIGHT...THOUGH
THIS SHOULD ALSO MOVE NE. ANY CLOUDS THAT DO WORK INTO W MA/N
CENTRAL CT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS THE DRIER AIR WORKS
IN. DID LEAVE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF N CENTRAL
AND W MA AFTER 06Z THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK OR SO...THE NORMALLY
PRONE VALLEY LOCATIONS.

TEMPS WILL LINGER IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT...THEN COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN. CURRENT FORECASTED LOWS
LOOK ON TARGET SO ONLY MADE ADJUSTMENTS ON NEAR TERM TEMPS/DEWPTS
TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE BUT ALSO BROUGHT NEAR TERM
CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD IN WITH PLENTY
OF SUBSIDENCE. UPPER TROUGH CONTAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
THROUGH THE COLUMN...BUT MOST OF THIS WILL REMAIN IN NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND UPSTATE NEW YORK. SO THE FORECAST WILL BE FAIR AND
DRY. PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK ENOUGH FOR SHELTERED AREAS TO
DECOUPLE...BUT EVEN EXPOSED AREAS SHOULD HAVE DIMINISHING WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS. INTERIOR AREAS SHOULD COOL TO NEAR DEW POINT WITH
VALUES IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S...COASTAL AREAS AND URBAN CENTERS
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS STILL OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH SOME CLOUD-LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND 850 MB. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONVERT
THIS TO DIURNAL CU...BUT STILL MAINTAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. THE MOST CLOUDS WILL BE IN NORTHERN MASS. TEMPS AT 850 MB
WILL BE 10C-11C...WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S...COOLER IN THE HIGHER HILLS AND PARTS OF THE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CHARGE.  FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WITH MIN
TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY AND WARM WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY FRIDAY AND SAT
* LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY LOOKS TO RETURN NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE CONTINUES IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
A GOOD PORTION OF THIS FORECAST. TYPICAL SUMMER UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN DOMINATES...WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGE THAT WORKS SLOWLY E OUT
OF THE PLAINS STATES INTO CENTRAL CANADA INTO THIS WEEKEND...WHILE
RATHER FLAT FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S.

AS TIME MOVES ON...THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE CONTINUES TO WORK E
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND HUDSON BAY. DO NOTE A FEW WEAK SHORT
WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW...BUT FEEL WITH LARGE SURFACE RIDGING AND
GOOD SUBSIDENCE THESE WILL PROVIDE LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE OP GFS CONTINUE TO TRY AND DEVELOP A
SOMEWHAT MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE AS IT MOVES ALONG IN THE FLOW
AROUND THE SUN INTO MON TIMEFRAME. THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE
ECMWF ALSO SHOWING A SMALL PROGRESSIVE UPPER CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY
MOVING E. HOWEVER...EACH MODEL HANDLES THE SURFACE CONDITIONS
RATHER DIFFERENTLY...WITH CHANCE FOR PRECIP REMAINING ON THE GFS
WHILE REMAINING DRY ON THE EC AND GGEM EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL...APPEARS THESE MINOR FEATURES PRESENT LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIP AS THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WORKS
OFFSHORE...ESTABLISHING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC. ALSO INTERESTING
TO NOTE THAT ALL THREE OP MODEL RUNS /GFS...GGEM AND ECMWF/ TRY TO
MOVE T.S. ERIKA OFF THE SE U.S. COAST AROUND TUE-WED...THOUGH
HOLDING IT OFFSHORE. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

WENT ALONG WITH AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...
THEN TRANSITIONED OVER THE ENSEMBLES AS MODELS DIVERGE ON THEIR
INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...IT DOES LOOK LIKE
A DRY FORECAST.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS WEEKEND.
EXPECT TEMPS TO RUN CLOSE TO OR A BIT WARMER THAN NORMAL. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S EXCEPT WHERE SEA BREEZES
SET UP HOLDING TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO
S-SW ON SATURDAY...SO WILL SEE TEMPS RISE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER
THAN ON FRIDAY. READINGS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOWER-MID 80S...
THOUGH DEWPTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

SUNDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

12Z GFS CONTINUES TO PERSIST IN BRINGING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
REGION AS WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS...WHILE MOST OTHER GUIDANCE
REMAINS DRY. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...DO NOTE SOME ENERGY
SLIDING TOWARD THE REGION ON THE EC AS WELL. SO...CONTINUED WITH
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH BEST CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING WITH BEST DIURNAL HEATING.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INDIVIDUAL MODELS DIVERGE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS UNCERTAINTY
CONTINUES WITH STRENGTH OF SHORT WAVES BEING DEPICTED ON EACH
MODEL AS THEY MOVE ALONG IN THE UPPER FLOW. HOWEVER...AS UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER E AND LARGE SURFACE HIGH ESTABLISHES OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...LOOKS LIKE LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY
INCREASES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-
UPPER 80S THOUGH COULD SEE SOME 90+ DEGREES READINGS AS WELL. VERY
IMPRESSIVE WARM SIGNAL CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT
INTERIOR VALLEYS.

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG LATE AT
NIGHT IN THE INTERIOR.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. WEAK SEA BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP
EACH DAY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS. LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF PATCHY
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG ACROSS NORMALLY PRONE INTERIOR
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF LOCAL MVFR IN SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING AWAY FROM THE S COAST.

MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD.

SW WINDS MAY PICK UP DURING SUNDAY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
WITH SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING 5 FEET. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN
CASE A SMALL CRAFT IS NEEDED THERE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 262336
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
736 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION INTO THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER. THE HIGH BUILDS
OFFSHORE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING FOR THE RETURN OF
HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

725 PM UPDATE...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THIN OUT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EARLY THIS
EVENING AS SEEN ON 23Z OBS AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. MOST
LOCATIONS REPORTING EITHER FEW CLOUDS AROUND 5-6KFT OR CLEAR
SKIES. DECK OF LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TRYING TO MOVE E OUT OF NY
STATE TENDING TO DISSIPATE AS IT PUSHES TOWARD THE CT VALLEY AND
BERKSHIRES.

NOTING DEWPTS CONTINUE TO FALL BACK AS DRIER AIR PUSHES IN ON
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS. STILL SOME HIGHER DEWPTS...AROUND 60
DEGREES...ALONG S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS BUT WILL FALL
BACK THERE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL.

EXPECT ONLY PATCHY HIGH THIN CLOUDS TO LINGER OVERNIGHT...THOUGH
THIS SHOULD ALSO MOVE NE. ANY CLOUDS THAT DO WORK INTO W MA/N
CENTRAL CT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS THE DRIER AIR WORKS
IN. DID LEAVE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF N CENTRAL
AND W MA AFTER 06Z THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK OR SO...THE NORMALLY
PRONE VALLEY LOCATIONS.

TEMPS WILL LINGER IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT...THEN COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN. CURRENT FORECASTED LOWS
LOOK ON TARGET SO ONLY MADE ADJUSTMENTS ON NEAR TERM TEMPS/DEWPTS
TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE BUT ALSO BROUGHT NEAR TERM
CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD IN WITH PLENTY
OF SUBSIDENCE. UPPER TROUGH CONTAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
THROUGH THE COLUMN...BUT MOST OF THIS WILL REMAIN IN NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND UPSTATE NEW YORK. SO THE FORECAST WILL BE FAIR AND
DRY. PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK ENOUGH FOR SHELTERED AREAS TO
DECOUPLE...BUT EVEN EXPOSED AREAS SHOULD HAVE DIMINISHING WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS. INTERIOR AREAS SHOULD COOL TO NEAR DEW POINT WITH
VALUES IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S...COASTAL AREAS AND URBAN CENTERS
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS STILL OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH SOME CLOUD-LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND 850 MB. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONVERT
THIS TO DIURNAL CU...BUT STILL MAINTAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. THE MOST CLOUDS WILL BE IN NORTHERN MASS. TEMPS AT 850 MB
WILL BE 10C-11C...WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S...COOLER IN THE HIGHER HILLS AND PARTS OF THE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CHARGE.  FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WITH MIN
TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY AND WARM WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY FRIDAY AND SAT
* LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY LOOKS TO RETURN NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE CONTINUES IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
A GOOD PORTION OF THIS FORECAST. TYPICAL SUMMER UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN DOMINATES...WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGE THAT WORKS SLOWLY E OUT
OF THE PLAINS STATES INTO CENTRAL CANADA INTO THIS WEEKEND...WHILE
RATHER FLAT FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S.

AS TIME MOVES ON...THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE CONTINUES TO WORK E
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND HUDSON BAY. DO NOTE A FEW WEAK SHORT
WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW...BUT FEEL WITH LARGE SURFACE RIDGING AND
GOOD SUBSIDENCE THESE WILL PROVIDE LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE OP GFS CONTINUE TO TRY AND DEVELOP A
SOMEWHAT MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE AS IT MOVES ALONG IN THE FLOW
AROUND THE SUN INTO MON TIMEFRAME. THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE
ECMWF ALSO SHOWING A SMALL PROGRESSIVE UPPER CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY
MOVING E. HOWEVER...EACH MODEL HANDLES THE SURFACE CONDITIONS
RATHER DIFFERENTLY...WITH CHANCE FOR PRECIP REMAINING ON THE GFS
WHILE REMAINING DRY ON THE EC AND GGEM EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL...APPEARS THESE MINOR FEATURES PRESENT LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIP AS THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WORKS
OFFSHORE...ESTABLISHING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC. ALSO INTERESTING
TO NOTE THAT ALL THREE OP MODEL RUNS /GFS...GGEM AND ECMWF/ TRY TO
MOVE T.S. ERIKA OFF THE SE U.S. COAST AROUND TUE-WED...THOUGH
HOLDING IT OFFSHORE. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

WENT ALONG WITH AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...
THEN TRANSITIONED OVER THE ENSEMBLES AS MODELS DIVERGE ON THEIR
INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...IT DOES LOOK LIKE
A DRY FORECAST.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS WEEKEND.
EXPECT TEMPS TO RUN CLOSE TO OR A BIT WARMER THAN NORMAL. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S EXCEPT WHERE SEA BREEZES
SET UP HOLDING TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO
S-SW ON SATURDAY...SO WILL SEE TEMPS RISE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER
THAN ON FRIDAY. READINGS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOWER-MID 80S...
THOUGH DEWPTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

SUNDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

12Z GFS CONTINUES TO PERSIST IN BRINGING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
REGION AS WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS...WHILE MOST OTHER GUIDANCE
REMAINS DRY. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...DO NOTE SOME ENERGY
SLIDING TOWARD THE REGION ON THE EC AS WELL. SO...CONTINUED WITH
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH BEST CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING WITH BEST DIURNAL HEATING.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INDIVIDUAL MODELS DIVERGE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS UNCERTAINTY
CONTINUES WITH STRENGTH OF SHORT WAVES BEING DEPICTED ON EACH
MODEL AS THEY MOVE ALONG IN THE UPPER FLOW. HOWEVER...AS UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER E AND LARGE SURFACE HIGH ESTABLISHES OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...LOOKS LIKE LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY
INCREASES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-
UPPER 80S THOUGH COULD SEE SOME 90+ DEGREES READINGS AS WELL. VERY
IMPRESSIVE WARM SIGNAL CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT
INTERIOR VALLEYS.

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG LATE AT
NIGHT IN THE INTERIOR.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. WEAK SEA BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP
EACH DAY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS. LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF PATCHY
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG ACROSS NORMALLY PRONE INTERIOR
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF LOCAL MVFR IN SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING AWAY FROM THE S COAST.

MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD.

SW WINDS MAY PICK UP DURING SUNDAY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
WITH SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING 5 FEET. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN
CASE A SMALL CRAFT IS NEEDED THERE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 262011
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
411 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION INTO THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER. THE HIGH BUILDS
OFFSHORE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING FOR THE RETURN OF
HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

THROUGH 7 PM...
COLD FRONT ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST SLOWLY MOVING EAST.
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO WEST ON WESTERN CAPE COD/UPPER CAPE WHILE
STILL SOME SOUTHERLIES ALONG THE OUTER CAPE. THE FLOW IS WEAK IN
SPOTS WHICH HAS ALLOWED A SEA BREEZE TO FORM ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
AND ON CAPE ANN WHILE BOSTON AND THE HARBOR REMAIN WITH A WEST-
SOUTHWEST WIND. THOSE WSW WINDS ARE BRINGING DRIER AIR ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S WEST AND AROUND 60 ALONG
I-95. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. DAYTIME
HEATING AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AROUND 850 MB HAS GENERATED
DIURNAL CU WEST AND NORTHWEST OF I-95...WHICH SHOULD LINGER
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. OBSERVED TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID
80S WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD IN WITH PLENTY
OF SUBSIDENCE. UPPER TROUGH CONTAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
THROUGH THE COLUMN...BUT MOST OF THIS WILL REMAIN IN NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND UPSTATE NEW YORK. SO THE FORECAST WILL BE FAIR AND
DRY. PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK ENOUGH FOR SHELTERED AREAS TO
DECOUPLE...BUT EVEN EXPOSED AREAS SHOULD HAVE DIMINISHING WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS. INTERIOR AREAS SHOULD COOL TO NEAR DEW POINT WITH
VALUES IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S...COASTAL AREAS AND URBAN CENTERS
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS STILL OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH SOME CLOUD-LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND 850 MB. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONVERT
THIS TO DIURNAL CU...BUT STILL MAINTAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. THE MOST CLOUDS WILL BE IN NORTHERN MASS. TEMPS AT 850 MB
WILL BE 10C-11C...WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S...COOLER IN THE HIGHER HILLS AND PARTS OF THE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CHARGE.  FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WITH MIN
TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY AND WARM WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY FRIDAY AND SAT
* LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY LOOKS TO RETURN NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE CONTINUES IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
A GOOD PORTION OF THIS FORECAST. TYPICAL SUMMER UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN DOMINATES...WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGE THAT WORKS SLOWLY E OUT
OF THE PLAINS STATES INTO CENTRAL CANADA INTO THIS WEEKEND...WHILE
RATHER FLAT FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S.

AS TIME MOVES ON...THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE CONTINUES TO WORK E
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND HUDSON BAY. DO NOTE A FEW WEAK SHORT
WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW...BUT FEEL WITH LARGE SURFACE RIDGING AND
GOOD SUBSIDENCE THESE WILL PROVIDE LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE OP GFS CONTINUE TO TRY AND DEVELOP A
SOMEWHAT MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE AS IT MOVES ALONG IN THE FLOW
AROUND THE SUN INTO MON TIMEFRAME. THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE
ECMWF ALSO SHOWING A SMALL PROGRESSIVE UPPER CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY
MOVING E. HOWEVER...EACH MODEL HANDLES THE SURFACE CONDITIONS
RATHER DIFFERENTLY...WITH CHANCE FOR PRECIP REMAINING ON THE GFS
WHILE REMAINING DRY ON THE EC AND GGEM EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL...APPEARS THESE MINOR FEATURES PRESENT LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIP AS THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WORKS
OFFSHORE...ESTABLISHING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC. ALSO INTERESTING
TO NOTE THAT ALL THREE OP MODEL RUNS /GFS...GGEM AND ECMWF/ TRY TO
MOVE T.S. ERIKA OFF THE SE U.S. COAST AROUND TUE-WED...THOUGH
HOLDING IT OFFSHORE. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

WENT ALONG WITH AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...
THEN TRANSITIONED OVER THE ENSEMBLES AS MODELS DIVERGE ON THEIR
INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...IT DOES LOOK LIKE
A DRY FORECAST.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS WEEKEND.
EXPECT TEMPS TO RUN CLOSE TO OR A BIT WARMER THAN NORMAL. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S EXCEPT WHERE SEA BREEZES
SET UP HOLDING TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO
S-SW ON SATURDAY...SO WILL SEE TEMPS RISE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER
THAN ON FRIDAY. READINGS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOWER-MID 80S...
THOUGH DEWPTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

SUNDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

12Z GFS CONTINUES TO PERSIST IN BRINGING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
REGION AS WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS...WHILE MOST OTHER GUIDANCE
REMAINS DRY. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...DO NOTE SOME ENERGY
SLIDING TOWARD THE REGION ON THE EC AS WELL. SO...CONTINUED WITH
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH BEST CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING WITH BEST DIURNAL HEATING.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INDIVIDUAL MODELS DIVERGE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS UNCERTAINTY
CONTINUES WITH STRENGTH OF SHORT WAVES BEING DEPICTED ON EACH
MODEL AS THEY MOVE ALONG IN THE UPPER FLOW. HOWEVER...AS UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER E AND LARGE SURFACE HIGH ESTABLISHES OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...LOOKS LIKE LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY
INCREASES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-
UPPER 80S THOUGH COULD SEE SOME 90+ DEGREES READINGS AS WELL. VERY
IMPRESSIVE WARM SIGNAL CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THROUGH 7 PM...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES AT A FEW SPOTS
ALONG THE COAST...ENDING AROUND SUNSET.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT
INTERIOR VALLEYS.

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG LATE AT
NIGHT IN THE INTERIOR.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. WEAK SEA BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP
EACH DAY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS. LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF PATCHY
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG ACROSS NORMALLY PRONE INTERIOR
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF LOCAL MVFR IN SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING AWAY FROM THE S COAST.

MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD.

SW WINDS MAY PICK UP DURING SUNDAY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
WITH SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING 5 FEET. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN
CASE A SMALL CRAFT IS NEEDED THERE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 262011
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
411 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION INTO THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER. THE HIGH BUILDS
OFFSHORE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING FOR THE RETURN OF
HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

THROUGH 7 PM...
COLD FRONT ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST SLOWLY MOVING EAST.
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO WEST ON WESTERN CAPE COD/UPPER CAPE WHILE
STILL SOME SOUTHERLIES ALONG THE OUTER CAPE. THE FLOW IS WEAK IN
SPOTS WHICH HAS ALLOWED A SEA BREEZE TO FORM ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
AND ON CAPE ANN WHILE BOSTON AND THE HARBOR REMAIN WITH A WEST-
SOUTHWEST WIND. THOSE WSW WINDS ARE BRINGING DRIER AIR ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S WEST AND AROUND 60 ALONG
I-95. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. DAYTIME
HEATING AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AROUND 850 MB HAS GENERATED
DIURNAL CU WEST AND NORTHWEST OF I-95...WHICH SHOULD LINGER
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. OBSERVED TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID
80S WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD IN WITH PLENTY
OF SUBSIDENCE. UPPER TROUGH CONTAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
THROUGH THE COLUMN...BUT MOST OF THIS WILL REMAIN IN NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND UPSTATE NEW YORK. SO THE FORECAST WILL BE FAIR AND
DRY. PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK ENOUGH FOR SHELTERED AREAS TO
DECOUPLE...BUT EVEN EXPOSED AREAS SHOULD HAVE DIMINISHING WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS. INTERIOR AREAS SHOULD COOL TO NEAR DEW POINT WITH
VALUES IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S...COASTAL AREAS AND URBAN CENTERS
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS STILL OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH SOME CLOUD-LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND 850 MB. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONVERT
THIS TO DIURNAL CU...BUT STILL MAINTAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. THE MOST CLOUDS WILL BE IN NORTHERN MASS. TEMPS AT 850 MB
WILL BE 10C-11C...WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S...COOLER IN THE HIGHER HILLS AND PARTS OF THE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CHARGE.  FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WITH MIN
TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY AND WARM WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY FRIDAY AND SAT
* LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY LOOKS TO RETURN NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE CONTINUES IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
A GOOD PORTION OF THIS FORECAST. TYPICAL SUMMER UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN DOMINATES...WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGE THAT WORKS SLOWLY E OUT
OF THE PLAINS STATES INTO CENTRAL CANADA INTO THIS WEEKEND...WHILE
RATHER FLAT FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S.

AS TIME MOVES ON...THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE CONTINUES TO WORK E
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND HUDSON BAY. DO NOTE A FEW WEAK SHORT
WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW...BUT FEEL WITH LARGE SURFACE RIDGING AND
GOOD SUBSIDENCE THESE WILL PROVIDE LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE OP GFS CONTINUE TO TRY AND DEVELOP A
SOMEWHAT MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE AS IT MOVES ALONG IN THE FLOW
AROUND THE SUN INTO MON TIMEFRAME. THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE
ECMWF ALSO SHOWING A SMALL PROGRESSIVE UPPER CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY
MOVING E. HOWEVER...EACH MODEL HANDLES THE SURFACE CONDITIONS
RATHER DIFFERENTLY...WITH CHANCE FOR PRECIP REMAINING ON THE GFS
WHILE REMAINING DRY ON THE EC AND GGEM EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL...APPEARS THESE MINOR FEATURES PRESENT LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIP AS THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WORKS
OFFSHORE...ESTABLISHING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC. ALSO INTERESTING
TO NOTE THAT ALL THREE OP MODEL RUNS /GFS...GGEM AND ECMWF/ TRY TO
MOVE T.S. ERIKA OFF THE SE U.S. COAST AROUND TUE-WED...THOUGH
HOLDING IT OFFSHORE. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

WENT ALONG WITH AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...
THEN TRANSITIONED OVER THE ENSEMBLES AS MODELS DIVERGE ON THEIR
INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...IT DOES LOOK LIKE
A DRY FORECAST.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS WEEKEND.
EXPECT TEMPS TO RUN CLOSE TO OR A BIT WARMER THAN NORMAL. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S EXCEPT WHERE SEA BREEZES
SET UP HOLDING TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO
S-SW ON SATURDAY...SO WILL SEE TEMPS RISE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER
THAN ON FRIDAY. READINGS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOWER-MID 80S...
THOUGH DEWPTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

SUNDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

12Z GFS CONTINUES TO PERSIST IN BRINGING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
REGION AS WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS...WHILE MOST OTHER GUIDANCE
REMAINS DRY. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...DO NOTE SOME ENERGY
SLIDING TOWARD THE REGION ON THE EC AS WELL. SO...CONTINUED WITH
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH BEST CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING WITH BEST DIURNAL HEATING.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INDIVIDUAL MODELS DIVERGE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS UNCERTAINTY
CONTINUES WITH STRENGTH OF SHORT WAVES BEING DEPICTED ON EACH
MODEL AS THEY MOVE ALONG IN THE UPPER FLOW. HOWEVER...AS UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER E AND LARGE SURFACE HIGH ESTABLISHES OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...LOOKS LIKE LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY
INCREASES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-
UPPER 80S THOUGH COULD SEE SOME 90+ DEGREES READINGS AS WELL. VERY
IMPRESSIVE WARM SIGNAL CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THROUGH 7 PM...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES AT A FEW SPOTS
ALONG THE COAST...ENDING AROUND SUNSET.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT
INTERIOR VALLEYS.

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG LATE AT
NIGHT IN THE INTERIOR.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. WEAK SEA BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP
EACH DAY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS. LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF PATCHY
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG ACROSS NORMALLY PRONE INTERIOR
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF LOCAL MVFR IN SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING AWAY FROM THE S COAST.

MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD.

SW WINDS MAY PICK UP DURING SUNDAY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
WITH SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING 5 FEET. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN
CASE A SMALL CRAFT IS NEEDED THERE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 262011
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
411 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION INTO THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER. THE HIGH BUILDS
OFFSHORE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING FOR THE RETURN OF
HAZY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

THROUGH 7 PM...
COLD FRONT ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST SLOWLY MOVING EAST.
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO WEST ON WESTERN CAPE COD/UPPER CAPE WHILE
STILL SOME SOUTHERLIES ALONG THE OUTER CAPE. THE FLOW IS WEAK IN
SPOTS WHICH HAS ALLOWED A SEA BREEZE TO FORM ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
AND ON CAPE ANN WHILE BOSTON AND THE HARBOR REMAIN WITH A WEST-
SOUTHWEST WIND. THOSE WSW WINDS ARE BRINGING DRIER AIR ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S WEST AND AROUND 60 ALONG
I-95. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. DAYTIME
HEATING AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AROUND 850 MB HAS GENERATED
DIURNAL CU WEST AND NORTHWEST OF I-95...WHICH SHOULD LINGER
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. OBSERVED TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID
80S WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD IN WITH PLENTY
OF SUBSIDENCE. UPPER TROUGH CONTAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
THROUGH THE COLUMN...BUT MOST OF THIS WILL REMAIN IN NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND UPSTATE NEW YORK. SO THE FORECAST WILL BE FAIR AND
DRY. PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK ENOUGH FOR SHELTERED AREAS TO
DECOUPLE...BUT EVEN EXPOSED AREAS SHOULD HAVE DIMINISHING WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS. INTERIOR AREAS SHOULD COOL TO NEAR DEW POINT WITH
VALUES IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S...COASTAL AREAS AND URBAN CENTERS
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS STILL OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH SOME CLOUD-LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND 850 MB. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONVERT
THIS TO DIURNAL CU...BUT STILL MAINTAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. THE MOST CLOUDS WILL BE IN NORTHERN MASS. TEMPS AT 850 MB
WILL BE 10C-11C...WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S...COOLER IN THE HIGHER HILLS AND PARTS OF THE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CHARGE.  FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WITH MIN
TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY AND WARM WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY FRIDAY AND SAT
* LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY LOOKS TO RETURN NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE CONTINUES IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
A GOOD PORTION OF THIS FORECAST. TYPICAL SUMMER UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN DOMINATES...WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGE THAT WORKS SLOWLY E OUT
OF THE PLAINS STATES INTO CENTRAL CANADA INTO THIS WEEKEND...WHILE
RATHER FLAT FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S.

AS TIME MOVES ON...THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE CONTINUES TO WORK E
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND HUDSON BAY. DO NOTE A FEW WEAK SHORT
WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW...BUT FEEL WITH LARGE SURFACE RIDGING AND
GOOD SUBSIDENCE THESE WILL PROVIDE LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE OP GFS CONTINUE TO TRY AND DEVELOP A
SOMEWHAT MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE AS IT MOVES ALONG IN THE FLOW
AROUND THE SUN INTO MON TIMEFRAME. THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE
ECMWF ALSO SHOWING A SMALL PROGRESSIVE UPPER CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY
MOVING E. HOWEVER...EACH MODEL HANDLES THE SURFACE CONDITIONS
RATHER DIFFERENTLY...WITH CHANCE FOR PRECIP REMAINING ON THE GFS
WHILE REMAINING DRY ON THE EC AND GGEM EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL...APPEARS THESE MINOR FEATURES PRESENT LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIP AS THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WORKS
OFFSHORE...ESTABLISHING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC. ALSO INTERESTING
TO NOTE THAT ALL THREE OP MODEL RUNS /GFS...GGEM AND ECMWF/ TRY TO
MOVE T.S. ERIKA OFF THE SE U.S. COAST AROUND TUE-WED...THOUGH
HOLDING IT OFFSHORE. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

WENT ALONG WITH AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...
THEN TRANSITIONED OVER THE ENSEMBLES AS MODELS DIVERGE ON THEIR
INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...IT DOES LOOK LIKE
A DRY FORECAST.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS WEEKEND.
EXPECT TEMPS TO RUN CLOSE TO OR A BIT WARMER THAN NORMAL. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S EXCEPT WHERE SEA BREEZES
SET UP HOLDING TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO
S-SW ON SATURDAY...SO WILL SEE TEMPS RISE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER
THAN ON FRIDAY. READINGS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOWER-MID 80S...
THOUGH DEWPTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

SUNDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

12Z GFS CONTINUES TO PERSIST IN BRINGING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
REGION AS WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS...WHILE MOST OTHER GUIDANCE
REMAINS DRY. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...DO NOTE SOME ENERGY
SLIDING TOWARD THE REGION ON THE EC AS WELL. SO...CONTINUED WITH
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH BEST CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING WITH BEST DIURNAL HEATING.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

INDIVIDUAL MODELS DIVERGE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS UNCERTAINTY
CONTINUES WITH STRENGTH OF SHORT WAVES BEING DEPICTED ON EACH
MODEL AS THEY MOVE ALONG IN THE UPPER FLOW. HOWEVER...AS UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER E AND LARGE SURFACE HIGH ESTABLISHES OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...LOOKS LIKE LATE SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY
INCREASES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-
UPPER 80S THOUGH COULD SEE SOME 90+ DEGREES READINGS AS WELL. VERY
IMPRESSIVE WARM SIGNAL CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THROUGH 7 PM...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES AT A FEW SPOTS
ALONG THE COAST...ENDING AROUND SUNSET.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT
INTERIOR VALLEYS.

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG LATE AT
NIGHT IN THE INTERIOR.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. WEAK SEA BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP
EACH DAY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS. LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF PATCHY
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG ACROSS NORMALLY PRONE INTERIOR
VALLEYS.

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF LOCAL MVFR IN SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING AWAY FROM THE S COAST.

MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD.

SW WINDS MAY PICK UP DURING SUNDAY ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
WITH SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING 5 FEET. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN
CASE A SMALL CRAFT IS NEEDED THERE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 261812
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
212 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER. THE HIGH
MOVES OFFSHORE BY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR THE RETURN OF
HOT...HUMIDITY AND HAZY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

THROUGH 7 PM...
COLD FRONT ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST SLOWLY MOVING EAST.
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO WEST ON WESTERN CAPE COD/UPPER CAPE WHILE
STILL SOME SOUTHERLIES ALONG THE OUTER CAPE. THE FLOW IS WEAK IN
SPOTS WHICH HAS ALLOWED A SEA BREEZE TO FORM ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
AND ON CAPE ANN WHILE BOSTON AND THE HARBOR REMAIN WITH A WEST-
SOUTHWEST WIND. THOSE WSW WINDS ARE BRINGING DRIER AIR ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S WEST AND AROUND 60 ALONG
I-95. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. DAYTIME
HEATING AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AROUND 850 MB HAS GENERATED
DIURNAL CU WEST AND NORTHWEST OF I-95...WHICH SHOULD LINGER
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. OBSERVED TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID
80S WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD IN WITH PLENTY
OF SUBSIDENCE. UPPER TROUGH CONTAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
THROUGH THE COLUMN...BUT MOST OF THIS WILL REMAIN IN NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND UPSTATE NEW YORK. SO THE FORECAST WILL BE FAIR AND
DRY. PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK ENOUGH FOR SHELTERED AREAS TO
DECOUPLE...BUT EVEN EXPOSED AREAS SHOULD HAVE DIMINISHING WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS. INTERIOR AREAS SHOULD COOL TO NEAR DEW POINT WITH
VALUES IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S...COASTAL AREAS AND URBAN CENTERS
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

THURSDAY...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS STILL OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH SOME CLOUD-LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND 850 MB. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONVERT
THIS TO DIURNAL CU...BUT STILL MAINTAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. THE MOST CLOUDS WILL BE IN NORTHERN MASS. TEMPS AT 850 MB
WILL BE 10-11C...WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S...COOLER IN THE HIGHER HILLS AND PARTS OF THE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CHARGE.  FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WITH MIN
TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY/SEASONABLE WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY FRIDAY AND SAT
* HAZY..HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A SHORTWAVE OR TWO TO
MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WHILE THE EC
AMPLIFIES THE SHORTWAVES INTO A CUT-OFF LOW. REGARDLESS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE AS MID-LEVEL
RIDGING BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD OVER THE NORTHEAST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

DAILIES...

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION ALLOWING FOR AVERAGE TEMPS
AND LOW HUMIDITY. ASIDE FROM SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COASTLINES...HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. THIS IS A WELCOME RELIEF FROM THE
OPPRESSIVE HEAT/HUMIDITY OVER THE PASS SEVERAL DAYS.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE DURING THIS PERIOD AS THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTIES ON THE STRENGTHS OF THE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/EC...DECIDED
TO GO AHEAD AN INSERT A SLIGHT CHC OF POP FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA FOR SUNDAY. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE AND HOPE THAT THE
GUIDANCE WILL BECOME BETTER ALIGN IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TREND ABOVE AVERAGE STARTING ON SUNDAY AND
INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF SCHOOL FOR SOME. BOTH MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
ARE HINTING AT ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE RIDGE SETS UP...WE COULD SEE EITHER U80S/L90S
OR EVEN MID 90S FOR NEXT WEEK. IF THE GFS IS RIGHT...THEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS ARE POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO
WATCH AS THIS IS AN IMPRESSIVE WARM SIGNAL FROM THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THROUGH 7 PM...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES AT A FEW SPOTS
ALONG THE COAST...ENDING AROUND SUNSET.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT
INTERIOR VALLEYS.

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG LATE AT
NIGHT IN THE INTERIOR.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. COULD SEE WEAK SEA
BREEZES ALONG THE COASTLINES.

SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. LOW POTENTIAL FOR MVFR IN -SHRA ACROSS
WESTERN MASS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKS TO BUILDING
HIGH PRES. WINDS OUT OF THE W-NW FRI...SHIFTING TO THE S BY SAT.

WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD ON SUNDAY. WAVE GUIDANCE MAY BE A
TAD HIGH BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 261812
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
212 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER. THE HIGH
MOVES OFFSHORE BY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR THE RETURN OF
HOT...HUMIDITY AND HAZY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

THROUGH 7 PM...
COLD FRONT ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST SLOWLY MOVING EAST.
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO WEST ON WESTERN CAPE COD/UPPER CAPE WHILE
STILL SOME SOUTHERLIES ALONG THE OUTER CAPE. THE FLOW IS WEAK IN
SPOTS WHICH HAS ALLOWED A SEA BREEZE TO FORM ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
AND ON CAPE ANN WHILE BOSTON AND THE HARBOR REMAIN WITH A WEST-
SOUTHWEST WIND. THOSE WSW WINDS ARE BRINGING DRIER AIR ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S WEST AND AROUND 60 ALONG
I-95. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. DAYTIME
HEATING AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AROUND 850 MB HAS GENERATED
DIURNAL CU WEST AND NORTHWEST OF I-95...WHICH SHOULD LINGER
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. OBSERVED TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID
80S WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD IN WITH PLENTY
OF SUBSIDENCE. UPPER TROUGH CONTAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
THROUGH THE COLUMN...BUT MOST OF THIS WILL REMAIN IN NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND UPSTATE NEW YORK. SO THE FORECAST WILL BE FAIR AND
DRY. PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK ENOUGH FOR SHELTERED AREAS TO
DECOUPLE...BUT EVEN EXPOSED AREAS SHOULD HAVE DIMINISHING WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS. INTERIOR AREAS SHOULD COOL TO NEAR DEW POINT WITH
VALUES IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S...COASTAL AREAS AND URBAN CENTERS
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

THURSDAY...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS STILL OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH SOME CLOUD-LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND 850 MB. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONVERT
THIS TO DIURNAL CU...BUT STILL MAINTAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. THE MOST CLOUDS WILL BE IN NORTHERN MASS. TEMPS AT 850 MB
WILL BE 10-11C...WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S...COOLER IN THE HIGHER HILLS AND PARTS OF THE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CHARGE.  FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WITH MIN
TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY/SEASONABLE WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY FRIDAY AND SAT
* HAZY..HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A SHORTWAVE OR TWO TO
MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WHILE THE EC
AMPLIFIES THE SHORTWAVES INTO A CUT-OFF LOW. REGARDLESS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE AS MID-LEVEL
RIDGING BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD OVER THE NORTHEAST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

DAILIES...

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION ALLOWING FOR AVERAGE TEMPS
AND LOW HUMIDITY. ASIDE FROM SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COASTLINES...HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. THIS IS A WELCOME RELIEF FROM THE
OPPRESSIVE HEAT/HUMIDITY OVER THE PASS SEVERAL DAYS.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE DURING THIS PERIOD AS THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTIES ON THE STRENGTHS OF THE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/EC...DECIDED
TO GO AHEAD AN INSERT A SLIGHT CHC OF POP FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA FOR SUNDAY. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE AND HOPE THAT THE
GUIDANCE WILL BECOME BETTER ALIGN IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TREND ABOVE AVERAGE STARTING ON SUNDAY AND
INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF SCHOOL FOR SOME. BOTH MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
ARE HINTING AT ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE RIDGE SETS UP...WE COULD SEE EITHER U80S/L90S
OR EVEN MID 90S FOR NEXT WEEK. IF THE GFS IS RIGHT...THEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS ARE POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO
WATCH AS THIS IS AN IMPRESSIVE WARM SIGNAL FROM THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THROUGH 7 PM...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES AT A FEW SPOTS
ALONG THE COAST...ENDING AROUND SUNSET.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT
INTERIOR VALLEYS.

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG LATE AT
NIGHT IN THE INTERIOR.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. COULD SEE WEAK SEA
BREEZES ALONG THE COASTLINES.

SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. LOW POTENTIAL FOR MVFR IN -SHRA ACROSS
WESTERN MASS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKS TO BUILDING
HIGH PRES. WINDS OUT OF THE W-NW FRI...SHIFTING TO THE S BY SAT.

WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD ON SUNDAY. WAVE GUIDANCE MAY BE A
TAD HIGH BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 261812
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
212 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER. THE HIGH
MOVES OFFSHORE BY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR THE RETURN OF
HOT...HUMIDITY AND HAZY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

THROUGH 7 PM...
COLD FRONT ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST SLOWLY MOVING EAST.
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO WEST ON WESTERN CAPE COD/UPPER CAPE WHILE
STILL SOME SOUTHERLIES ALONG THE OUTER CAPE. THE FLOW IS WEAK IN
SPOTS WHICH HAS ALLOWED A SEA BREEZE TO FORM ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
AND ON CAPE ANN WHILE BOSTON AND THE HARBOR REMAIN WITH A WEST-
SOUTHWEST WIND. THOSE WSW WINDS ARE BRINGING DRIER AIR ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S WEST AND AROUND 60 ALONG
I-95. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. DAYTIME
HEATING AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AROUND 850 MB HAS GENERATED
DIURNAL CU WEST AND NORTHWEST OF I-95...WHICH SHOULD LINGER
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. OBSERVED TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID
80S WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD IN WITH PLENTY
OF SUBSIDENCE. UPPER TROUGH CONTAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
THROUGH THE COLUMN...BUT MOST OF THIS WILL REMAIN IN NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND UPSTATE NEW YORK. SO THE FORECAST WILL BE FAIR AND
DRY. PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK ENOUGH FOR SHELTERED AREAS TO
DECOUPLE...BUT EVEN EXPOSED AREAS SHOULD HAVE DIMINISHING WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS. INTERIOR AREAS SHOULD COOL TO NEAR DEW POINT WITH
VALUES IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S...COASTAL AREAS AND URBAN CENTERS
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

THURSDAY...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS STILL OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH SOME CLOUD-LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND 850 MB. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONVERT
THIS TO DIURNAL CU...BUT STILL MAINTAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. THE MOST CLOUDS WILL BE IN NORTHERN MASS. TEMPS AT 850 MB
WILL BE 10-11C...WHICH SUPPORTS MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S...COOLER IN THE HIGHER HILLS AND PARTS OF THE COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CHARGE.  FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WITH MIN
TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY/SEASONABLE WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY FRIDAY AND SAT
* HAZY..HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A SHORTWAVE OR TWO TO
MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WHILE THE EC
AMPLIFIES THE SHORTWAVES INTO A CUT-OFF LOW. REGARDLESS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE AS MID-LEVEL
RIDGING BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD OVER THE NORTHEAST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

DAILIES...

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION ALLOWING FOR AVERAGE TEMPS
AND LOW HUMIDITY. ASIDE FROM SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COASTLINES...HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. THIS IS A WELCOME RELIEF FROM THE
OPPRESSIVE HEAT/HUMIDITY OVER THE PASS SEVERAL DAYS.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE DURING THIS PERIOD AS THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTIES ON THE STRENGTHS OF THE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/EC...DECIDED
TO GO AHEAD AN INSERT A SLIGHT CHC OF POP FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA FOR SUNDAY. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE AND HOPE THAT THE
GUIDANCE WILL BECOME BETTER ALIGN IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TREND ABOVE AVERAGE STARTING ON SUNDAY AND
INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF SCHOOL FOR SOME. BOTH MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
ARE HINTING AT ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE RIDGE SETS UP...WE COULD SEE EITHER U80S/L90S
OR EVEN MID 90S FOR NEXT WEEK. IF THE GFS IS RIGHT...THEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS ARE POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO
WATCH AS THIS IS AN IMPRESSIVE WARM SIGNAL FROM THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THROUGH 7 PM...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SEA BREEZES AT A FEW SPOTS
ALONG THE COAST...ENDING AROUND SUNSET.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT
INTERIOR VALLEYS.

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG LATE AT
NIGHT IN THE INTERIOR.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. COULD SEE WEAK SEA
BREEZES ALONG THE COASTLINES.

SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. LOW POTENTIAL FOR MVFR IN -SHRA ACROSS
WESTERN MASS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKS TO BUILDING
HIGH PRES. WINDS OUT OF THE W-NW FRI...SHIFTING TO THE S BY SAT.

WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD ON SUNDAY. WAVE GUIDANCE MAY BE A
TAD HIGH BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 261426
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1026 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
FINALLY PUSHING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK BRINGING DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE BY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING
FOR THE RETURN OF HOT...HUMIDITY AND HAZY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

COLD FRONT NEAR THE EASTERN MASS COASTLINE WILL MOVE EAST AND
OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. LINGERING HIGH MOISTURE OVER THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND
WITH SUPPORTING UPPER JET OVERHEAD. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO SET OFF
A COUPLE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER CAPE COD AND VICINITY BEFORE THE
WIND SHIFT AND THE SLOW ARRIVAL OF DRIER DEW POINTS. WE NUDGED
POPS BACK UP TO LOW-END CHANCE IN THIS AREA FOR THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE A FAIR WEATHER DAY WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LOWERING DEW
POINTS. ALREADY COMFORTABLE LEVELS IN WESTERN SECTIONS...THIS WILL
SPREAD EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL
SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. NO CHANGES TO
FORECAST MAX TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MOCLEAR SKIES.
PATCHY INTERIOR VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT. DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE
50S...EXCEPT LOW TO MID 60S BOS/PVD URBAN CENTERS AND CAPE/ACK.

THURSDAY...
MID LEVEL TROF AXIS SWINGS ACROSS NEW ENG BUT THE COLUMN IS DRY
AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO MOSUNNY
SKIES AND VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS. 850 MB TEMPS 10-11C SUPPORT MAXES MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN
TO NEAR 80 DEGREES COASTAL PLAIN AND INTERIOR VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY/SEASONABLE WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY FRIDAY AND SAT
* HAZY..HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A SHORTWAVE OR TWO TO
MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WHILE THE EC
AMPLIFIES THE SHORTWAVES INTO A CUT-OFF LOW. REGARDLESS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE AS MID-LEVEL
RIDGING BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD OVER THE NORTHEAST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

DAILIES...

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION ALLOWING FOR AVERAGE TEMPS
AND LOW HUMIDITY. ASIDE FROM SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COASTLINES...HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. THIS IS A WELCOME RELIEF FROM THE
OPPRESSIVE HEAT/HUMIDITY OVER THE PASS SEVERAL DAYS.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE DURING THIS PERIOD AS THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTIES ON THE STRENGTHS OF THE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/EC...DECIDED
TO GO AHEAD AN INSERT A SLIGHT CHC OF POP FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA FOR SUNDAY. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE AND HOPE THAT THE
GUIDANCE WILL BECOME BETTER ALIGN IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TREND ABOVE AVERAGE STARTING ON SUNDAY AND
INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF SCHOOL FOR SOME. BOTH MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
ARE HINTING AT ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE RIDGE SETS UP...WE COULD SEE EITHER U80S/L90S
OR EVEN MID 90S FOR NEXT WEEK. IF THE GFS IS RIGHT...THEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS ARE POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO
WATCH AS THIS IS AN IMPRESSIVE WARM SIGNAL FROM THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. BRIEF SHOWER OR TSTM
POSSIBLE MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. COASTAL
SEABREEZES DEVELOPING.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG LATE
TONIGHT INTERIOR VALLEYS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEABREEZE LIKELY.
ANOTHER SEABREEZE POSSIBLE THU BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. COULD SEE WEAK SEA
BREEZES ALONG THE COASTLINES.

SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. LOW POTENTIAL FOR MVFR IN -SHRA ACROSS
WESTERN MASS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A TSTM POSSIBLE EARLY
AFTERNOON OVER EAST WATERS...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKS TO BUILDING
HIGH PRES. WINDS OUT OF THE W-NW THROUGH FRI...SHIFTING TO THE S BY
SAT.

WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD ON SUNDAY. WAVE GUIDANCE MAY BE A
TAD HIGH BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 261426
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1026 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
FINALLY PUSHING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK BRINGING DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE BY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING
FOR THE RETURN OF HOT...HUMIDITY AND HAZY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

COLD FRONT NEAR THE EASTERN MASS COASTLINE WILL MOVE EAST AND
OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. LINGERING HIGH MOISTURE OVER THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND
WITH SUPPORTING UPPER JET OVERHEAD. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO SET OFF
A COUPLE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER CAPE COD AND VICINITY BEFORE THE
WIND SHIFT AND THE SLOW ARRIVAL OF DRIER DEW POINTS. WE NUDGED
POPS BACK UP TO LOW-END CHANCE IN THIS AREA FOR THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE A FAIR WEATHER DAY WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LOWERING DEW
POINTS. ALREADY COMFORTABLE LEVELS IN WESTERN SECTIONS...THIS WILL
SPREAD EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL
SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. NO CHANGES TO
FORECAST MAX TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MOCLEAR SKIES.
PATCHY INTERIOR VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT. DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE
50S...EXCEPT LOW TO MID 60S BOS/PVD URBAN CENTERS AND CAPE/ACK.

THURSDAY...
MID LEVEL TROF AXIS SWINGS ACROSS NEW ENG BUT THE COLUMN IS DRY
AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO MOSUNNY
SKIES AND VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS. 850 MB TEMPS 10-11C SUPPORT MAXES MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN
TO NEAR 80 DEGREES COASTAL PLAIN AND INTERIOR VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY/SEASONABLE WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY FRIDAY AND SAT
* HAZY..HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A SHORTWAVE OR TWO TO
MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WHILE THE EC
AMPLIFIES THE SHORTWAVES INTO A CUT-OFF LOW. REGARDLESS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE AS MID-LEVEL
RIDGING BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD OVER THE NORTHEAST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

DAILIES...

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION ALLOWING FOR AVERAGE TEMPS
AND LOW HUMIDITY. ASIDE FROM SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COASTLINES...HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. THIS IS A WELCOME RELIEF FROM THE
OPPRESSIVE HEAT/HUMIDITY OVER THE PASS SEVERAL DAYS.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE DURING THIS PERIOD AS THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTIES ON THE STRENGTHS OF THE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/EC...DECIDED
TO GO AHEAD AN INSERT A SLIGHT CHC OF POP FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA FOR SUNDAY. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE AND HOPE THAT THE
GUIDANCE WILL BECOME BETTER ALIGN IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TREND ABOVE AVERAGE STARTING ON SUNDAY AND
INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF SCHOOL FOR SOME. BOTH MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
ARE HINTING AT ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE RIDGE SETS UP...WE COULD SEE EITHER U80S/L90S
OR EVEN MID 90S FOR NEXT WEEK. IF THE GFS IS RIGHT...THEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS ARE POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO
WATCH AS THIS IS AN IMPRESSIVE WARM SIGNAL FROM THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. BRIEF SHOWER OR TSTM
POSSIBLE MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. COASTAL
SEABREEZES DEVELOPING.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG LATE
TONIGHT INTERIOR VALLEYS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEABREEZE LIKELY.
ANOTHER SEABREEZE POSSIBLE THU BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. COULD SEE WEAK SEA
BREEZES ALONG THE COASTLINES.

SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. LOW POTENTIAL FOR MVFR IN -SHRA ACROSS
WESTERN MASS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A TSTM POSSIBLE EARLY
AFTERNOON OVER EAST WATERS...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKS TO BUILDING
HIGH PRES. WINDS OUT OF THE W-NW THROUGH FRI...SHIFTING TO THE S BY
SAT.

WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD ON SUNDAY. WAVE GUIDANCE MAY BE A
TAD HIGH BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 261426
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1026 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
FINALLY PUSHING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK BRINGING DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE BY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING
FOR THE RETURN OF HOT...HUMIDITY AND HAZY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

COLD FRONT NEAR THE EASTERN MASS COASTLINE WILL MOVE EAST AND
OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. LINGERING HIGH MOISTURE OVER THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND
WITH SUPPORTING UPPER JET OVERHEAD. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO SET OFF
A COUPLE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER CAPE COD AND VICINITY BEFORE THE
WIND SHIFT AND THE SLOW ARRIVAL OF DRIER DEW POINTS. WE NUDGED
POPS BACK UP TO LOW-END CHANCE IN THIS AREA FOR THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE A FAIR WEATHER DAY WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LOWERING DEW
POINTS. ALREADY COMFORTABLE LEVELS IN WESTERN SECTIONS...THIS WILL
SPREAD EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL
SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. NO CHANGES TO
FORECAST MAX TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MOCLEAR SKIES.
PATCHY INTERIOR VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT. DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE
50S...EXCEPT LOW TO MID 60S BOS/PVD URBAN CENTERS AND CAPE/ACK.

THURSDAY...
MID LEVEL TROF AXIS SWINGS ACROSS NEW ENG BUT THE COLUMN IS DRY
AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO MOSUNNY
SKIES AND VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS. 850 MB TEMPS 10-11C SUPPORT MAXES MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN
TO NEAR 80 DEGREES COASTAL PLAIN AND INTERIOR VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY/SEASONABLE WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY FRIDAY AND SAT
* HAZY..HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A SHORTWAVE OR TWO TO
MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WHILE THE EC
AMPLIFIES THE SHORTWAVES INTO A CUT-OFF LOW. REGARDLESS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE AS MID-LEVEL
RIDGING BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD OVER THE NORTHEAST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

DAILIES...

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION ALLOWING FOR AVERAGE TEMPS
AND LOW HUMIDITY. ASIDE FROM SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COASTLINES...HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. THIS IS A WELCOME RELIEF FROM THE
OPPRESSIVE HEAT/HUMIDITY OVER THE PASS SEVERAL DAYS.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE DURING THIS PERIOD AS THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTIES ON THE STRENGTHS OF THE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/EC...DECIDED
TO GO AHEAD AN INSERT A SLIGHT CHC OF POP FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA FOR SUNDAY. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE AND HOPE THAT THE
GUIDANCE WILL BECOME BETTER ALIGN IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TREND ABOVE AVERAGE STARTING ON SUNDAY AND
INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF SCHOOL FOR SOME. BOTH MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
ARE HINTING AT ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE RIDGE SETS UP...WE COULD SEE EITHER U80S/L90S
OR EVEN MID 90S FOR NEXT WEEK. IF THE GFS IS RIGHT...THEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS ARE POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO
WATCH AS THIS IS AN IMPRESSIVE WARM SIGNAL FROM THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. BRIEF SHOWER OR TSTM
POSSIBLE MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. COASTAL
SEABREEZES DEVELOPING.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG LATE
TONIGHT INTERIOR VALLEYS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEABREEZE LIKELY.
ANOTHER SEABREEZE POSSIBLE THU BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. COULD SEE WEAK SEA
BREEZES ALONG THE COASTLINES.

SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. LOW POTENTIAL FOR MVFR IN -SHRA ACROSS
WESTERN MASS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A TSTM POSSIBLE EARLY
AFTERNOON OVER EAST WATERS...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKS TO BUILDING
HIGH PRES. WINDS OUT OF THE W-NW THROUGH FRI...SHIFTING TO THE S BY
SAT.

WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD ON SUNDAY. WAVE GUIDANCE MAY BE A
TAD HIGH BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 261054
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
654 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR THE COAST TODAY BEFORE FINALLY
PUSHING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK BRINGING DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE BY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING
FOR THE RETURN OF HOT...HUMIDITY AND HAZY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

700 AM UPDATE...

BULK OF THE PRECIP CONTINUES TO PUSH OVER THE OUTER WATERS. HAVE
NOTICED SOME REDEVELOPMENT CLOSE TO THE CAPE THIS MORNING. THE
HRRR SEEMS A LITTLE BULLISH ON THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP FOR THIS
MORNING...BUT CANT REALLY RULE IT OUT AS THERE IS STILL CAPE AND
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. ASIDE FROM A FEW MINOR TWEAKS...FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE EXITING THE CAPE/ISLANDS...BUT
STILL HAVE TO WATCH AREA OF CONVECTION LIFTING NE FROM THE OCEAN.
WE STILL HAVE 1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE OVER THE OCEAN AND MODELS
MAINTAIN UP TO 1000 J/KG ACROSS SE MA THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
BACK EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND HIGHER KI AXIS LINGERING OVER
THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND E COASTAL MA THROUGH 12-15Z BEFORE DRIER AIR
PUSHES EAST. SO THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY INTO E
MA WHERE COLD FRONT WILL STALL TODAY. WILL HAVE LOW
POPS THIS MORNING ...OTHERWISE DRY TODAY WITH MOSUNNY SKIES WEST
AND INCREASING SUNSHINE EAST.

UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN GT LAKES TODAY
WITH FRONT STALLING NEAR E COASTAL MA AND CAPE COD. THIS WILL
SLOW THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR INTO SE NEW ENG WITH HUMID CONDITIONS
THIS MORNING BEFORE DEWPOINTS SLOWLY DROP THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY IN W NEW ENG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S. 850 MB TEMPS 12-15C FROM WEST TO EAST SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S...WARMEST E NEW ENG WITH UPPER 70S INTERIOR HIGH
TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MOCLEAR SKIES.
PATCHY INTERIOR VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT. DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE
50S...EXCEPT LOW TO MID 60S BOS/PVD URBAN CENTERS AND CAPE/ACK.

THURSDAY...
MID LEVEL TROF AXIS SWINGS ACROSS NEW ENG BUT THE COLUMN IS DRY
AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO MOSUNNY
SKIES AND VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS. 850 MB TEMPS 10-11C SUPPORT MAXES MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN
TO NEAR 80 DEGREES COASTAL PLAIN AND INTERIOR VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY/SEASONABLE WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY FRIDAY AND SAT
* HAZY..HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A SHORTWAVE OR TWO TO
MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WHILE THE EC
AMPLIFIES THE SHORTWAVES INTO A CUT-OFF LOW. REGARDLESS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE AS MID-LEVEL
RIDGING BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD OVER THE NORTHEAST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

DAILIES...

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION ALLOWING FOR AVERAGE TEMPS
AND LOW HUMIDITY. ASIDE FROM SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COASTLINES...HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. THIS IS A WELCOME RELIEF FROM THE
OPPRESSIVE HEAT/HUMIDITY OVER THE PASS SEVERAL DAYS.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE DURING THIS PERIOD AS THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTIES ON THE STRENGTHS OF THE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/EC...DECIDED
TO GO AHEAD AN INSERT A SLIGHT CHC OF POP FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA FOR SUNDAY. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE AND HOPE THAT THE
GUIDANCE WILL BECOME BETTER ALIGN IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TREND ABOVE AVERAGE STARTING ON SUNDAY AND
INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF SCHOOL FOR SOME. BOTH MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
ARE HINTING AT ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE RIDGE SETS UP...WE COULD SEE EITHER U80S/L90S
OR EVEN MID 90S FOR NEXT WEEK. IF THE GFS IS RIGHT...THEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS ARE POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO
WATCH AS THIS IS AN IMPRESSIVE WARM SIGNAL FROM THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...


TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG
EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR. BRIEF SHOWER OR TSTM POSSIBLE THIS MORNING
SE COASTAL MA AND CAPE COD. COASTAL SEABREEZES DEVELOPING.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG LATE
TONIGHT INTERIOR VALLEYS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING. SEABREEZE LIKELY. ANOTHER SEABREEZE
POSSIBLE THU BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. COULD SEE WEAK SEA
BREEZES ALONG THE COASTLINES.

SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. LOW POTENTIAL FOR MVFR IN -SHRA ACROSS
WESTERN MASS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A TSTM POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING OVER E WATERS...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKS TO BUILDING
HIGH PRES. WINDS OUT OF THE W-NW THROUGH FRI...SHIFTING TO THE S BY
SAT.

WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD ON SUNDAY. WAVE GUIDANCE MAY BE A
TAD HIGH BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 261054
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
654 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR THE COAST TODAY BEFORE FINALLY
PUSHING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK BRINGING DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE BY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING
FOR THE RETURN OF HOT...HUMIDITY AND HAZY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

700 AM UPDATE...

BULK OF THE PRECIP CONTINUES TO PUSH OVER THE OUTER WATERS. HAVE
NOTICED SOME REDEVELOPMENT CLOSE TO THE CAPE THIS MORNING. THE
HRRR SEEMS A LITTLE BULLISH ON THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP FOR THIS
MORNING...BUT CANT REALLY RULE IT OUT AS THERE IS STILL CAPE AND
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. ASIDE FROM A FEW MINOR TWEAKS...FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE EXITING THE CAPE/ISLANDS...BUT
STILL HAVE TO WATCH AREA OF CONVECTION LIFTING NE FROM THE OCEAN.
WE STILL HAVE 1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE OVER THE OCEAN AND MODELS
MAINTAIN UP TO 1000 J/KG ACROSS SE MA THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
BACK EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND HIGHER KI AXIS LINGERING OVER
THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND E COASTAL MA THROUGH 12-15Z BEFORE DRIER AIR
PUSHES EAST. SO THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY INTO E
MA WHERE COLD FRONT WILL STALL TODAY. WILL HAVE LOW
POPS THIS MORNING ...OTHERWISE DRY TODAY WITH MOSUNNY SKIES WEST
AND INCREASING SUNSHINE EAST.

UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN GT LAKES TODAY
WITH FRONT STALLING NEAR E COASTAL MA AND CAPE COD. THIS WILL
SLOW THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR INTO SE NEW ENG WITH HUMID CONDITIONS
THIS MORNING BEFORE DEWPOINTS SLOWLY DROP THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY IN W NEW ENG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S. 850 MB TEMPS 12-15C FROM WEST TO EAST SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S...WARMEST E NEW ENG WITH UPPER 70S INTERIOR HIGH
TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MOCLEAR SKIES.
PATCHY INTERIOR VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT. DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE
50S...EXCEPT LOW TO MID 60S BOS/PVD URBAN CENTERS AND CAPE/ACK.

THURSDAY...
MID LEVEL TROF AXIS SWINGS ACROSS NEW ENG BUT THE COLUMN IS DRY
AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO MOSUNNY
SKIES AND VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS. 850 MB TEMPS 10-11C SUPPORT MAXES MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN
TO NEAR 80 DEGREES COASTAL PLAIN AND INTERIOR VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY/SEASONABLE WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY FRIDAY AND SAT
* HAZY..HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A SHORTWAVE OR TWO TO
MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WHILE THE EC
AMPLIFIES THE SHORTWAVES INTO A CUT-OFF LOW. REGARDLESS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE AS MID-LEVEL
RIDGING BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD OVER THE NORTHEAST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

DAILIES...

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION ALLOWING FOR AVERAGE TEMPS
AND LOW HUMIDITY. ASIDE FROM SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COASTLINES...HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. THIS IS A WELCOME RELIEF FROM THE
OPPRESSIVE HEAT/HUMIDITY OVER THE PASS SEVERAL DAYS.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE DURING THIS PERIOD AS THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTIES ON THE STRENGTHS OF THE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/EC...DECIDED
TO GO AHEAD AN INSERT A SLIGHT CHC OF POP FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA FOR SUNDAY. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE AND HOPE THAT THE
GUIDANCE WILL BECOME BETTER ALIGN IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TREND ABOVE AVERAGE STARTING ON SUNDAY AND
INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF SCHOOL FOR SOME. BOTH MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
ARE HINTING AT ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE RIDGE SETS UP...WE COULD SEE EITHER U80S/L90S
OR EVEN MID 90S FOR NEXT WEEK. IF THE GFS IS RIGHT...THEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS ARE POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO
WATCH AS THIS IS AN IMPRESSIVE WARM SIGNAL FROM THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...


TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG
EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR. BRIEF SHOWER OR TSTM POSSIBLE THIS MORNING
SE COASTAL MA AND CAPE COD. COASTAL SEABREEZES DEVELOPING.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG LATE
TONIGHT INTERIOR VALLEYS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING. SEABREEZE LIKELY. ANOTHER SEABREEZE
POSSIBLE THU BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. COULD SEE WEAK SEA
BREEZES ALONG THE COASTLINES.

SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. LOW POTENTIAL FOR MVFR IN -SHRA ACROSS
WESTERN MASS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A TSTM POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING OVER E WATERS...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKS TO BUILDING
HIGH PRES. WINDS OUT OF THE W-NW THROUGH FRI...SHIFTING TO THE S BY
SAT.

WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD ON SUNDAY. WAVE GUIDANCE MAY BE A
TAD HIGH BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 260753
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
353 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR THE COAST TODAY BEFORE FINALLY
PUSHING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK BRINGING DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE BY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING
FOR THE RETURN OF HOT...HUMIDITY AND HAZY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE EXITING THE CAPE/ISLANDS...BUT
STILL HAVE TO WATCH AREA OF CONVECTION LIFTING NE FROM THE OCEAN.
WE STILL HAVE 1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE OVER THE OCEAN AND MODELS
MAINTAIN UP TO 1000 J/KG ACROSS SE MA THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
BACK EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND HIGHER KI AXIS LINGERING OVER
THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND E COASTAL MA THROUGH 12-15Z BEFORE DRIER AIR
PUSHES EAST. SO THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY INTO E
MA WHERE COLD FRONT WILL STALL TODAY. WILL HAVE LOW
POPS THIS MORNING ...OTHERWISE DRY TODAY WITH MOSUNNY SKIES WEST
AND INCREASING SUNSHINE EAST.

UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN GT LAKES TODAY
WITH FRONT STALLING NEAR E COASTAL MA AND CAPE COD. THIS WILL
SLOW THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR INTO SE NEW ENG WITH HUMID CONDITIONS
THIS MORNING BEFORE DEWPOINTS SLOWLY DROP THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY IN W NEW ENG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S. 850 MB TEMPS 12-15C FROM WEST TO EAST SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S...WARMEST E NEW ENG WITH UPPER 70S INTERIOR HIGH
TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MOCLEAR SKIES.
PATCHY INTERIOR VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT. DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE
50S...EXCEPT LOW TO MID 60S BOS/PVD URBAN CENTERS AND CAPE/ACK.

THURSDAY...
MID LEVEL TROF AXIS SWINGS ACROSS NEW ENG BUT THE COLUMN IS DRY
AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO MOSUNNY
SKIES AND VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS. 850 MB TEMPS 10-11C SUPPORT MAXES MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN
TO NEAR 80 DEGREES COASTAL PLAIN AND INTERIOR VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY/SEASONABLE WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY FRIDAY AND SAT
* HAZY..HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A SHORTWAVE OR TWO TO
MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WHILE THE EC
AMPLIFIES THE SHORTWAVES INTO A CUT-OFF LOW. REGARDLESS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE AS MID-LEVEL
RIDGING BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD OVER THE NORTHEAST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

DAILIES...

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION ALLOWING FOR AVERAGE TEMPS
AND LOW HUMIDITY. ASIDE FROM SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COASTLINES...HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. THIS IS A WELCOME RELIEF FROM THE
OPPRESSIVE HEAT/HUMIDITY OVER THE PASS SEVERAL DAYS.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE DURING THIS PERIOD AS THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTIES ON THE STRENGTHS OF THE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/EC...DECIDED
TO GO AHEAD AN INSERT A SLIGHT CHC OF POP FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA FOR SUNDAY. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE AND HOPE THAT THE
GUIDANCE WILL BECOME BETTER ALINE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TREND ABOVE AVERAGE STARTING ON SUNDAY AND
INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF SCHOOL FOR SOME. BOTH MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
ARE HINTING AT ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE RIDGE SETS UP...WE COULD SEE EITHER U80S/L90S
OR EVEN MID 90S FOR NEXT WEEK. IF THE GFS IS RIGHT...THEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS ARE POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO
WATCH AS THIS IS AN IMPRESSIVE WARM SIGNAL FROM THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR AND SOME
IFR. SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXITING CAPE/ISLANDS NEXT 1-2 HOURS...BUT
CONTINUED THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS OR A TSTM THROUGH 12Z SE MA AND
CAPE.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG
EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR. BRIEF SHOWER OR TSTM POSSIBLE THIS MORNING
SE COASTAL MA AND CAPE COD. COASTAL SEABREEZES DEVELOPING.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG LATE
TONIGHT INTERIOR VALLEYS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING. SEABREEZE LIKELY BY MIDDAY. ANOTHER
SEABREEZE POSSIBLE THU BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. COULD SEE WEAK SEA
BREEZES ALONG THE COASTLINES.

SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. LOW POTENTIAL FOR MVFR IN -SHRA ACROSS
WESTERN MASS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A TSTM POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING OVER E WATERS...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKS TO BUILDING
HIGH PRES. WINDS OUT OF THE W-NW THROUGH FRI...SHIFTING TO THE S BY
SAT.

WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD ON SUNDAY. WAVE GUIDANCE MAY BE A
TAD HIGH BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 260753
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
353 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR THE COAST TODAY BEFORE FINALLY
PUSHING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK BRINGING DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE BY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING
FOR THE RETURN OF HOT...HUMIDITY AND HAZY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE EXITING THE CAPE/ISLANDS...BUT
STILL HAVE TO WATCH AREA OF CONVECTION LIFTING NE FROM THE OCEAN.
WE STILL HAVE 1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE OVER THE OCEAN AND MODELS
MAINTAIN UP TO 1000 J/KG ACROSS SE MA THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
BACK EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND HIGHER KI AXIS LINGERING OVER
THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND E COASTAL MA THROUGH 12-15Z BEFORE DRIER AIR
PUSHES EAST. SO THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY INTO E
MA WHERE COLD FRONT WILL STALL TODAY. WILL HAVE LOW
POPS THIS MORNING ...OTHERWISE DRY TODAY WITH MOSUNNY SKIES WEST
AND INCREASING SUNSHINE EAST.

UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN GT LAKES TODAY
WITH FRONT STALLING NEAR E COASTAL MA AND CAPE COD. THIS WILL
SLOW THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR INTO SE NEW ENG WITH HUMID CONDITIONS
THIS MORNING BEFORE DEWPOINTS SLOWLY DROP THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY IN W NEW ENG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S. 850 MB TEMPS 12-15C FROM WEST TO EAST SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S...WARMEST E NEW ENG WITH UPPER 70S INTERIOR HIGH
TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MOCLEAR SKIES.
PATCHY INTERIOR VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT. DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE
50S...EXCEPT LOW TO MID 60S BOS/PVD URBAN CENTERS AND CAPE/ACK.

THURSDAY...
MID LEVEL TROF AXIS SWINGS ACROSS NEW ENG BUT THE COLUMN IS DRY
AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO MOSUNNY
SKIES AND VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS. 850 MB TEMPS 10-11C SUPPORT MAXES MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN
TO NEAR 80 DEGREES COASTAL PLAIN AND INTERIOR VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY/SEASONABLE WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY FRIDAY AND SAT
* HAZY..HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A SHORTWAVE OR TWO TO
MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WHILE THE EC
AMPLIFIES THE SHORTWAVES INTO A CUT-OFF LOW. REGARDLESS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE AS MID-LEVEL
RIDGING BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD OVER THE NORTHEAST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

DAILIES...

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION ALLOWING FOR AVERAGE TEMPS
AND LOW HUMIDITY. ASIDE FROM SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COASTLINES...HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. THIS IS A WELCOME RELIEF FROM THE
OPPRESSIVE HEAT/HUMIDITY OVER THE PASS SEVERAL DAYS.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE DURING THIS PERIOD AS THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTIES ON THE STRENGTHS OF THE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/EC...DECIDED
TO GO AHEAD AN INSERT A SLIGHT CHC OF POP FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA FOR SUNDAY. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE AND HOPE THAT THE
GUIDANCE WILL BECOME BETTER ALINE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TREND ABOVE AVERAGE STARTING ON SUNDAY AND
INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF SCHOOL FOR SOME. BOTH MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
ARE HINTING AT ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE RIDGE SETS UP...WE COULD SEE EITHER U80S/L90S
OR EVEN MID 90S FOR NEXT WEEK. IF THE GFS IS RIGHT...THEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS ARE POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO
WATCH AS THIS IS AN IMPRESSIVE WARM SIGNAL FROM THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR AND SOME
IFR. SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXITING CAPE/ISLANDS NEXT 1-2 HOURS...BUT
CONTINUED THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS OR A TSTM THROUGH 12Z SE MA AND
CAPE.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG
EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR. BRIEF SHOWER OR TSTM POSSIBLE THIS MORNING
SE COASTAL MA AND CAPE COD. COASTAL SEABREEZES DEVELOPING.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG LATE
TONIGHT INTERIOR VALLEYS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING. SEABREEZE LIKELY BY MIDDAY. ANOTHER
SEABREEZE POSSIBLE THU BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. COULD SEE WEAK SEA
BREEZES ALONG THE COASTLINES.

SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. LOW POTENTIAL FOR MVFR IN -SHRA ACROSS
WESTERN MASS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A TSTM POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING OVER E WATERS...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKS TO BUILDING
HIGH PRES. WINDS OUT OF THE W-NW THROUGH FRI...SHIFTING TO THE S BY
SAT.

WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD ON SUNDAY. WAVE GUIDANCE MAY BE A
TAD HIGH BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 260753
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
353 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR THE COAST TODAY BEFORE FINALLY
PUSHING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK BRINGING DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE BY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING
FOR THE RETURN OF HOT...HUMIDITY AND HAZY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE EXITING THE CAPE/ISLANDS...BUT
STILL HAVE TO WATCH AREA OF CONVECTION LIFTING NE FROM THE OCEAN.
WE STILL HAVE 1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE OVER THE OCEAN AND MODELS
MAINTAIN UP TO 1000 J/KG ACROSS SE MA THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
BACK EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND HIGHER KI AXIS LINGERING OVER
THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND E COASTAL MA THROUGH 12-15Z BEFORE DRIER AIR
PUSHES EAST. SO THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY INTO E
MA WHERE COLD FRONT WILL STALL TODAY. WILL HAVE LOW
POPS THIS MORNING ...OTHERWISE DRY TODAY WITH MOSUNNY SKIES WEST
AND INCREASING SUNSHINE EAST.

UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN GT LAKES TODAY
WITH FRONT STALLING NEAR E COASTAL MA AND CAPE COD. THIS WILL
SLOW THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR INTO SE NEW ENG WITH HUMID CONDITIONS
THIS MORNING BEFORE DEWPOINTS SLOWLY DROP THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY IN W NEW ENG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S. 850 MB TEMPS 12-15C FROM WEST TO EAST SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S...WARMEST E NEW ENG WITH UPPER 70S INTERIOR HIGH
TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...
COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MOCLEAR SKIES.
PATCHY INTERIOR VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT. DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE
50S...EXCEPT LOW TO MID 60S BOS/PVD URBAN CENTERS AND CAPE/ACK.

THURSDAY...
MID LEVEL TROF AXIS SWINGS ACROSS NEW ENG BUT THE COLUMN IS DRY
AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO MOSUNNY
SKIES AND VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS. 850 MB TEMPS 10-11C SUPPORT MAXES MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN
TO NEAR 80 DEGREES COASTAL PLAIN AND INTERIOR VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY/SEASONABLE WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY FRIDAY AND SAT
* HAZY..HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A SHORTWAVE OR TWO TO
MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WHILE THE EC
AMPLIFIES THE SHORTWAVES INTO A CUT-OFF LOW. REGARDLESS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE AS MID-LEVEL
RIDGING BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD OVER THE NORTHEAST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

DAILIES...

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION ALLOWING FOR AVERAGE TEMPS
AND LOW HUMIDITY. ASIDE FROM SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COASTLINES...HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. THIS IS A WELCOME RELIEF FROM THE
OPPRESSIVE HEAT/HUMIDITY OVER THE PASS SEVERAL DAYS.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE DURING THIS PERIOD AS THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTIES ON THE STRENGTHS OF THE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/EC...DECIDED
TO GO AHEAD AN INSERT A SLIGHT CHC OF POP FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA FOR SUNDAY. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE AND HOPE THAT THE
GUIDANCE WILL BECOME BETTER ALINE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TREND ABOVE AVERAGE STARTING ON SUNDAY AND
INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF SCHOOL FOR SOME. BOTH MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
ARE HINTING AT ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE RIDGE SETS UP...WE COULD SEE EITHER U80S/L90S
OR EVEN MID 90S FOR NEXT WEEK. IF THE GFS IS RIGHT...THEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS ARE POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO
WATCH AS THIS IS AN IMPRESSIVE WARM SIGNAL FROM THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR AND SOME
IFR. SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXITING CAPE/ISLANDS NEXT 1-2 HOURS...BUT
CONTINUED THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS OR A TSTM THROUGH 12Z SE MA AND
CAPE.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG
EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR. BRIEF SHOWER OR TSTM POSSIBLE THIS MORNING
SE COASTAL MA AND CAPE COD. COASTAL SEABREEZES DEVELOPING.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY IFR FOG LATE
TONIGHT INTERIOR VALLEYS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING. SEABREEZE LIKELY BY MIDDAY. ANOTHER
SEABREEZE POSSIBLE THU BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. COULD SEE WEAK SEA
BREEZES ALONG THE COASTLINES.

SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. LOW POTENTIAL FOR MVFR IN -SHRA ACROSS
WESTERN MASS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A TSTM POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING OVER E WATERS...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKS TO BUILDING
HIGH PRES. WINDS OUT OF THE W-NW THROUGH FRI...SHIFTING TO THE S BY
SAT.

WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD ON SUNDAY. WAVE GUIDANCE MAY BE A
TAD HIGH BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN




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