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000
FXUS61 KBOX 240540
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
140 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES AND DRAWS ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS OUT OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WINDY AND DRYING
CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES. WINDS THEN DIMINISHING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR A
PORTION OF THE WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AT THE START OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
140 AM UPDATE...
DRIER AIR IS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION AS DEWPOINTS DROP INTO THE
20S AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN CLEARING SKIES. CLOUDS WILL LINGER
ACROSS E COASTAL MA AND CAPE/ISLANDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MID LEVEL LOW JUST OFFSHORE WITH BACK EDGE OF RAIN SHIELD EAST OF
THE CAPE. STILL LOTS OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION BUT PARTIAL
CLEARING DEVELOPING TO THE WEST IN NEW YORK STATE. THIS CLEARING
WILL MOVE INTO SNE OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND POSSIBLY
E COASTAL MA.

COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WILL PROMOTE MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT...WITH VALUES OF 30 KNOTS EXPECTED ALOFT OVERNIGHT. WE WILL
FORECAST NORTHWEST GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS.

THE WIND WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS MIXED. SO NO RADIATIONAL COOLING.
DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 20S WILL ALLOW ROOM FOR TEMPS TO FALL.
BUT WITH WINDS STAYING UP...TEMPS SHOULD STAY A LITTLE HIGHER.
EXPECTED MINS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON
THURSDAY AND BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT.  EXPECT MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. ANY LINGERING CLOUDS IN EASTERN MASS SHOULD QUICKLY
MOVE OFF. FULL APRIL SUN SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX TO AT LEAST 850
MB...THIS IS INDICATED IN THE MODEL FORECASTS. GIVEN THE MODEL
CAPABILITY OF UNDERESTIMATING THE MIXING DEPTH...MIXING COULD REACH
TO 825 MB OR 800 MB. EXPECT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING TO MAINTAIN
STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS ALOFT IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL
INCREASE TO 35 KNOTS...WITH POTENTIAL TO REACH 40 KNOTS. WE WILL
FEATURE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS/40 MPH AND MONITOR FOR STRONGER WINDS.
TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE -2C TO -3C...SUPPORTING MID 50S.  TEMPS AT
800 MB WILL BE AROUND -3C TO -4C...EQUIV TO 1-2C AT 850...AND WOULD
SUPPORT LOWER 60S. FORECAST MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S...BUT
AROUND 60 IN A FEW WARM SPOTS. IF MIXING GOES DEEPER THAN 850 MB
THEN TEMPS COULD BUMP UP 3-4 DEGREES.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
DIMINISH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH INLAND.
EXPECT MIN TEMPS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED BUT SEASONABLE WEATHER LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
* UNSEASONABLE TEMPS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER NEXT WEEK

MODELS AND CONFIDENCE...
12Z SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...HOWEVER AT THE
SURFACE THERE ARE MANY VARIABLES WHICH HAS CAUSED DIFFERENCE
AMONGST THE MODELS. OVERALL CONTINUED FOCUSING THE FORECAST BASE
ON THE ENSEMBLES AS THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS VERY SPREAD
OUT...THUS LEADING TOWARDS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST ESP FOR NEXT
WEEK.

QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION AS LOW WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE MARITIMES. HOWEVER A CLOSED TROUGH/LOW OVER THE
ROCKIES ON MONDAY WILL EVENTUALLY BE FORCED EASTWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN US BY WED IN A DEVELOPING REX BLOCK SETUP AS WARMING
RIDGES BUILD STRONGLY OVER THE WRN US.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY BUT
CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER AND SUNNY SKIES TO START THE
DAY. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S DUE TO RETURN FLOW FROM THE SOUTH. CONDITIONS ALONG THE
COASTLINES WILL BE COOLER AS SEABREEZES DEVELOP.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN A WET WEATHER. THE EC WANT TO DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW
ALONG THE FRONT RESULTING IN MORE QPF VERSUS THE GFS WHICH JUST
PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. REGARDLESS IT APPEARS TO RAIN
SOMETIME ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING SATURDAY MORNING LASTING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT LOCATION AND OVERALL
TIMING. GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVING
THROUGH ON SATURDAY SO HAVE INSERTED ISO THUNDER FOR NOW.
HOPEFULLY OVER THE NEXT FEW RUNS MODELS WILL BECOME MORE IN-LINE
WITH ONE ANOTHER.

OTHERWISE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM EXPECT
TEMPS TO WARM UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ON SATURDAY. AS THE SYSTEM
PASSES...WINDS WILL SWITCH MORE TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST RESULTING
IN HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BY SUNDAY. SUNDAY
TEMPS MAY BE COOLER THEN FORECASTED AS NW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW COULD YIELD TO ANOTHER COLD CORE LOW SITUATION. THE EC IS
MORE AGGRESSIVE SHOWING THIS WHERE AS THE GFS IS WARMER.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE BREEZY ON MONDAY WITH THE DEPARTING LOW
MOVING OFFSHORE AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION...INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

MID NEXT WEEK...
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A POSSIBLE WARM FRONT ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TUES/WED.
HOWEVER WILL NEED TO WATCH WHERE EXACTLY THE LOW PRESSURE SETS UP.
IF IT IS SOUTH OF THE REGION THEN WE COULD SEE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS
DUE TO THE EASTERLY FLOW AS WELL AS UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY NW WINDS TODAY
AS GUSTS TO 35-40 KT EXPECTED. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR.
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR IN SCT -SHRA. LOW PROB OF SOME ISO THUNDER
ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. SOME SHOWERY WEATHER
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE. COOLER AIR DRAWN
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...THIS WILL PROMOTE BRINGING STRONGER WIND GUSTS DOWN FROM
ALOFT.  WINDS AT THOSE HIGHER LEVELS WILL INCREASE TO 35 KNOTS
DURING TONIGHT AND 35-40 KNOTS ON THURSDAY. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO
DRIVE THE SEA HEIGHT TO 5-8 FEET TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. GALE WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL NEW ENGLAND WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT.  EXPECT DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
HEADLINES STEPPING DOWN THROUGH SMALL CRAFTS BEFORE ENDING
OVERNIGHT.  THE OUTER WATERS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT
HEADLINES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS MAY REMAIN
ABOVE 5 FEET FOR A PORTION OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE...QUIET BOATING
WEATHER.

SATURDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SW WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED
AT TIMES IN RAIN SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDER. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY BE NECESSARY ON THE OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHIFT TO NW AND
INCREASE AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BLOW OUT OF THE NW ON MONDAY AND BE BREEZY AS WELL. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEATHER CONDITIONS THURSDAY ARE FAVORABLE FOR FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES...MIN RH 20-30 PCT WITH DRIEST VALUES IN THE CT VALLEY
AND NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS/40 MPH MOST AREAS. BUT AFTER
COORDINATION WITH STATE CONTACTS IT IS CLEAR THAT NON-WEATHER
FACTORS ARE NOT FAVORABLE AT THIS TIME. SO WE HAVE OPTED FOR NO
FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS MULTI-
FACETED SITUATION AND UPDATE AS NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230>237-250-
     251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 240200
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1000 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES AND DRAWS ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS OUT OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WINDY AND DRYING
CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES. WINDS THEN DIMINISHING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR A
PORTION OF THE WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AT THE START OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
MID LEVEL LOW JUST OFFSHORE WITH BACK EDGE OF RAIN SHIELD EAST OF
THE CAPE. STILL LOTS OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION BUT PARTIAL
CLEARING DEVELOPING TO THE WEST IN NEW YORK STATE. THIS CLEARING
WILL MOVE INTO SNE OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND POSSIBLY
E COASTAL MA.

COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WILL PROMOTE MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT...WITH VALUES OF 30 KNOTS EXPECTED ALOFT OVERNIGHT. WE WILL
FORECAST NORTHWEST GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS.

THE WIND WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS MIXED. SO NO RADIATIONAL COOLING.
DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 20S WILL ALLOW ROOM FOR TEMPS TO FALL.
BUT WITH WINDS STAYING UP...TEMPS SHOULD STAY A LITTLE HIGHER.
EXPECTED MINS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON
THURSDAY AND BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT.  EXPECT MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. ANY LINGERING CLOUDS IN EASTERN MASS SHOULD QUICKLY
MOVE OFF. FULL APRIL SUN SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX TO AT LEAST 850
MB...THIS IS INDICATED IN THE MODEL FORECASTS. GIVEN THE MODEL
CAPABILITY OF UNDERESTIMATING THE MIXING DEPTH...MIXING COULD REACH
TO 825 MB OR 800 MB. EXPECT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING TO MAINTAIN
STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS ALOFT IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL
INCREASE TO 35 KNOTS...WITH POTENTIAL TO REACH 40 KNOTS. WE WILL
FEATURE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS/40 MPH AND MONITOR FOR STRONGER WINDS.
TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE -2C TO -3C...SUPPORTING MID 50S.  TEMPS AT
800 MB WILL BE AROUND -3C TO -4C...EQUIV TO 1-2C AT 850...AND WOULD
SUPPORT LOWER 60S. FORECAST MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S...BUT
AROUND 60 IN A FEW WARM SPOTS. IF MIXING GOES DEEPER THAN 850 MB
THEN TEMPS COULD BUMP UP 3-4 DEGREES.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
DIMINISH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH INLAND.
EXPECT MIN TEMPS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED BUT SEASONABLE WEATHER LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
* UNSEASONABLE TEMPS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER NEXT WEEK

MODELS AND CONFIDENCE...
12Z SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...HOWEVER AT THE
SURFACE THERE ARE MANY VARIABLES WHICH HAS CAUSED DIFFERENCE
AMONGST THE MODELS. OVERALL CONTINUED FOCUSING THE FORECAST BASE
ON THE ENSEMBLES AS THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS VERY SPREAD
OUT...THUS LEADING TOWARDS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST ESP FOR NEXT
WEEK.

QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION AS LOW WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE MARITIMES. HOWEVER A CLOSED TROUGH/LOW OVER THE
ROCKIES ON MONDAY WILL EVENTUALLY BE FORCED EASTWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN US BY WED IN A DEVELOPING REX BLOCK SETUP AS WARMING
RIDGES BUILD STRONGLY OVER THE WRN US.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY BUT
CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER AND SUNNY SKIES TO START THE
DAY. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S DUE TO RETURN FLOW FROM THE SOUTH. CONDITIONS ALONG THE
COASTLINES WILL BE COOLER AS SEABREEZES DEVELOP.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN A WET WEATHER. THE EC WANT TO DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW
ALONG THE FRONT RESULTING IN MORE QPF VERSUS THE GFS WHICH JUST
PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. REGARDLESS IT APPEARS TO RAIN
SOMETIME ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING SATURDAY MORNING LASTING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT LOCATION AND OVERALL
TIMING. GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVING
THROUGH ON SATURDAY SO HAVE INSERTED ISO THUNDER FOR NOW.
HOPEFULLY OVER THE NEXT FEW RUNS MODELS WILL BECOME MORE IN-LINE
WITH ONE ANOTHER.

OTHERWISE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM EXPECT
TEMPS TO WARM UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ON SATURDAY. AS THE SYSTEM
PASSES...WINDS WILL SWITCH MORE TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST RESULTING
IN HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BY SUNDAY. SUNDAY
TEMPS MAY BE COOLER THEN FORECASTED AS NW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW COULD YIELD TO ANOTHER COLD CORE LOW SITUATION. THE EC IS
MORE AGGRESSIVE SHOWING THIS WHERE AS THE GFS IS WARMER.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE BREEZY ON MONDAY WITH THE DEPARTING LOW
MOVING OFFSHORE AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION...INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

MID NEXT WEEK...
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A POSSIBLE WARM FRONT ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TUES/WED.
HOWEVER WILL NEED TO WATCH WHERE EXACTLY THE LOW PRESSURE SETS UP.
IF IT IS SOUTH OF THE REGION THEN WE COULD SEE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS
DUE TO THE EASTERLY FLOW AS WELL AS UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

VFR WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
WINDS ALOFT WILL BE TAPPED FOR THE STRONG GUSTS. THOSE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KNOTS TONIGHT AND AT LEAST 35 TO 40 KNOTS
ON THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR 45 KNOT GUSTS. ONCE
SKIES CLEAR...EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND HIGH
CONFIDENCE THURSDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR IN SCT -SHRA. LOW PROB OF SOME ISO THUNDER ON
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. SOME SHOWERY WEATHER
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE. COOLER AIR DRAWN
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...THIS WILL PROMOTE BRINGING STRONGER WIND GUSTS DOWN FROM
ALOFT.  WINDS AT THOSE HIGHER LEVELS WILL INCREASE TO 35 KNOTS
DURING TONIGHT AND 35-40 KNOTS ON THURSDAY. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO
DRIVE THE SEA HEIGHT TO 5-8 FEET TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. GALE WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL NEW ENGLAND WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT.  EXPECT DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
HEADLINES STEPPING DOWN THROUGH SMALL CRAFTS BEFORE ENDING
OVERNIGHT.  THE OUTER WATERS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT
HEADLINES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS MAY REMAIN
ABOVE 5 FEET FOR A PORTION OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE...QUIET BOATING
WEATHER.

SATURDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SW WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED
AT TIMES IN RAIN SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDER. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY BE NECESSARY ON THE OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHIFT TO NW AND
INCREASE AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BLOW OUT OF THE NW ON MONDAY AND BE BREEZY AS WELL. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEATHER CONDITIONS THURSDAY ARE FAVORABLE FOR FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES...MIN RH 20-30 PCT WITH DRIEST VALUES IN THE CT VALLEY
AND NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS/40 MPH MOST AREAS. BUT AFTER
COORDINATION WITH STATE CONTACTS IT IS CLEAR THAT NON-WEATHER
FACTORS ARE NOT FAVORABLE AT THIS TIME. SO WE HAVE OPTED FOR NO
FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS MULTI-
FACETED SITUATION AND UPDATE AS NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ230>237-250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/KJC
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 232251
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
651 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES AND DRAWS ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS OUT OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WINDY AND DRYING
CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES. WINDS THEN DIMINISHING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR A
PORTION OF THE WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AT THE START OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

700 PM UPDATE...
LINGERING PRECIP OVER THE CAPE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. TRENDED THE POP FORECAST TOWARDS THE HI-RES MODELS
WHICH ARE ON TRACK PER LATEST RADAR OBS. HAVE INCREASED WIND GUSTS
AS SEVERAL SITES HAVE ALREADY REACHED 30KTS OR ABOVE. OTHERWISE
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS SKIES WILL CLEAR AND
PRECIP WILL BE OFFSHORE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
OVERNIGHT THANKS TO A LLJ OF 40KTS AT 850MB.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WILL PROMOTE MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT...WITH VALUES OF 30 KNOTS EXPECTED ALOFT OVERNIGHT. WE WILL
FORECAST NORTHWEST GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS.

THE WIND WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS MIXED. SO NO RADIATIONAL COOLING.
DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 20S WILL ALLOW ROOM FOR TEMPS TO FALL.
BUT WITH WINDS STAYING UP...TEMPS SHOULD STAY A LITTLE HIGHER. WE
USED A RANGE OF UPPER 20S AND 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON
THURSDAY AND BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT.  EXPECT MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. ANY LINGERING CLOUDS IN EASTERN MASS SHOULD QUICKLY
MOVE OFF. FULL APRIL SUN SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX TO AT LEAST 850
MB...THIS IS INDICATED IN THE MODEL FORECASTS. GIVEN THE MODEL
CAPABILITY OF UNDERESTIMATING THE MIXING DEPTH...MIXING COULD REACH
TO 825 MB OR 800 MB. EXPECT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING TO MAINTAIN
STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS ALOFT IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL
INCREASE TO 35 KNOTS...WITH POTENTIAL TO REACH 40 KNOTS. WE WILL
FEATURE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS/40 MPH AND MONITOR FOR STRONGER WINDS.
TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE -2C TO -3C...SUPPORTING MID 50S.  TEMPS AT
800 MB WILL BE AROUND -3C TO -4C...EQUIV TO 1-2C AT 850...AND WOULD
SUPPORT LOWER 60S. FORECAST MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S...BUT
AROUND 60 IN A FEW WARM SPOTS. IF MIXING GOES DEEPER THAN 850 MB
THEN TEMPS COULD BUMP UP 3-4 DEGREES.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
DIMINISH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH INLAND.
EXPECT MIN TEMPS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED BUT SEASONABLE WEATHER LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
* UNSEASONABLE TEMPS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER NEXT WEEK

MODELS AND CONFIDENCE...
12Z SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...HOWEVER AT THE
SURFACE THERE ARE MANY VARIABLES WHICH HAS CAUSED DIFFERENCE
AMONGST THE MODELS. OVERALL CONTINUED FOCUSING THE FORECAST BASE
ON THE ENSEMBLES AS THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS VERY SPREAD
OUT...THUS LEADING TOWARDS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST ESP FOR NEXT
WEEK.

QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION AS LOW WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE MARITIMES. HOWEVER A CLOSED TROUGH/LOW OVER THE
ROCKIES ON MONDAY WILL EVENTUALLY BE FORCED EASTWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN US BY WED IN A DEVELOPING REX BLOCK SETUP AS WARMING
RIDGES BUILD STRONGLY OVER THE WRN US.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY BUT
CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER AND SUNNY SKIES TO START THE
DAY. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S DUE TO RETURN FLOW FROM THE SOUTH. CONDITIONS ALONG THE
COASTLINES WILL BE COOLER AS SEABREEZES DEVELOP.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN A WET WEATHER. THE EC WANT TO DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW
ALONG THE FRONT RESULTING IN MORE QPF VERSUS THE GFS WHICH JUST
PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. REGARDLESS IT APPEARS TO RAIN
SOMETIME ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING SATURDAY MORNING LASTING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT LOCATION AND OVERALL
TIMING. GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVING
THROUGH ON SATURDAY SO HAVE INSERTED ISO THUNDER FOR NOW.
HOPEFULLY OVER THE NEXT FEW RUNS MODELS WILL BECOME MORE IN-LINE
WITH ONE ANOTHER.

OTHERWISE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM EXPECT
TEMPS TO WARM UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ON SATURDAY. AS THE SYSTEM
PASSES...WINDS WILL SWITCH MORE TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST RESULTING
IN HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BY SUNDAY. SUNDAY
TEMPS MAY BE COOLER THEN FORECASTED AS NW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW COULD YIELD TO ANOTHER COLD CORE LOW SITUATION. THE EC IS
MORE AGGRESSIVE SHOWING THIS WHERE AS THE GFS IS WARMER.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE BREEZY ON MONDAY WITH THE DEPARTING LOW
MOVING OFFSHORE AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION...INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

MID NEXT WEEK...
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A POSSIBLE WARM FRONT ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TUES/WED.
HOWEVER WILL NEED TO WATCH WHERE EXACTLY THE LOW PRESSURE SETS UP.
IF IT IS SOUTH OF THE REGION THEN WE COULD SEE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS
DUE TO THE EASTERLY FLOW AS WELL AS UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

VFR WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
WINDS ALOFT WILL BE TAPPED FOR THE STRONG GUSTS. THOSE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KNOTS TONIGHT AND AT LEAST 35 TO 40 KNOTS
ON THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR 45 KNOT GUSTS. ONCE
SKIES CLEAR...EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND HIGH
CONFIDENCE THURSDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR IN SCT -SHRA. LOW PROB OF SOME ISO THUNDER ON
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. SOME SHOWERY WEATHER
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE. COOLER AIR DRAWN
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...THIS WILL PROMOTE BRINGING STRONGER WIND GUSTS DOWN FROM
ALOFT.  WINDS AT THOSE HIGHER LEVELS WILL INCREASE TO 35 KNOTS
DURING TONIGHT AND 35-40 KNOTS ON THURSDAY. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO
DRIVE THE SEA HEIGHT TO 5-8 FEET TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. GALE WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL NEW ENGLAND WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT.  EXPECT DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
HEADLINES STEPPING DOWN THROUGH SMALL CRAFTS BEFORE ENDING
OVERNIGHT.  THE OUTER WATERS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT
HEADLINES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS MAY REMAIN
ABOVE 5 FEET FOR A PORTION OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE...QUIET BOATING
WEATHER.

SATURDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SW WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED
AT TIMES IN RAIN SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDER. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY BE NECESSARY ON THE OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHIFT TO NW AND
INCREASE AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BLOW OUT OF THE NW ON MONDAY AND BE BREEZY AS WELL. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEATHER CONDITIONS THURSDAY ARE FAVORABLE FOR FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES...MIN RH 20-30 PCT WITH DRIEST VALUES IN THE CT VALLEY
AND NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS/40 MPH MOST AREAS. BUT AFTER
COORDINATION WITH STATE CONTACTS IT IS CLEAR THAT NON-WEATHER
FACTORS ARE NOT FAVORABLE AT THIS TIME. SO WE HAVE OPTED FOR NO
FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS MULTI-
FACETED SITUATION AND UPDATE AS NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ230>237-250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
FIRE WEATHER...WTB




000
FXUS61 KBOX 231937
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
337 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES AND DRAWS ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS OUT OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WINDY AND DRYING
CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES. WINDS THEN DIMINISHING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR A
PORTION OF THE WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AT THE START OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LOW AND COLD POOL ARE SLOWLY MOVING EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS.
EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS TO DIMINISH. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ALSO
INCREASING WITH PRESSURE CHANGES OF 3-4MB/6 HOURS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING. WE/VE SEEN STRONGER...BUT THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
SUSTAINED WIND MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT... CLOUD-LEVEL MOISTURE DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT BUT WITH VALUES
AROUND 70 PCT LINGERING BELOW 850 MB. EXTRAPOLATION OF THE BACK
CLOUD EDGE OVER ONTARIO WOULD BRING IT TO THE CT VALLEY AROUND 1230-
1 AM. WE WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A CLEARING TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT.
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WILL PROMOTE MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT...WITH VALUES OF 30 KNOTS EXPECTED ALOFT OVERNIGHT.  WE WILL
FORECAST NORTHWEST GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS.

THE WIND WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS MIXED. SO NO RADIATIONAL COOLING.
DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 20S WILL ALLOW ROOM FOR TEMPS TO FALL.
BUT WITH WINDS STAYING UP...TEMPS SHOULD STAY A LITTLE HIGHER. WE
USED A RANGE OF UPPER 20S AND 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON
THURSDAY AND BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT.  EXPECT MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. ANY LINGERING CLOUDS IN EASTERN MASS SHOULD QUICKLY
MOVE OFF. FULL APRIL SUN SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX TO AT LEAST 850
MB...THIS IS INDICATED IN THE MODEL FORECASTS. GIVEN THE MODEL
CAPABILITY OF UNDERESTIMATING THE MIXING DEPTH...MIXING COULD REACH
TO 825 MB OR 800 MB. EXPECT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING TO MAINTAIN
STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS ALOFT IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL
INCREASE TO 35 KNOTS...WITH POTENTIAL TO REACH 40 KNOTS. WE WILL
FEATURE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS/40 MPH AND MONITOR FOR STRONGER WINDS.
TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE -2C TO -3C...SUPPORTING MID 50S.  TEMPS AT
800 MB WILL BE AROUND -3C TO -4C...EQUIV TO 1-2C AT 850...AND WOULD
SUPPORT LOWER 60S. FORECAST MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S...BUT
AROUND 60 IN A FEW WARM SPOTS. IF MIXING GOES DEEPER THAN 850 MB
THEN TEMPS COULD BUMP UP 3-4 DEGREES.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
DIMINISH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH INLAND.
EXPECT MIN TEMPS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED BUT SEASONABLE WEATHER LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
* UNSEASONABLE TEMPS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER NEXT WEEK

MODELS AND CONFIDENCE...
12Z SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...HOWEVER AT THE
SURFACE THERE ARE MANY VARIABLES WHICH HAS CAUSED DIFFERENCE
AMONGST THE MODELS. OVERALL CONTINUED FOCUSING THE FORECAST BASE
ON THE ENSEMBLES AS THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS VERY SPREAD
OUT...THUS LEADING TOWARDS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST ESP FOR NEXT
WEEK.

QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION AS LOW WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE MARITIMES. HOWEVER A CLOSED TROUGH/LOW OVER THE
ROCKIES ON MONDAY WILL EVENTUALLY BE FORCED EASTWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN US BY WED IN A DEVELOPING REX BLOCK SETUP AS WARMING
RIDGES BUILD STRONGLY OVER THE WRN US.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY BUT
CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER AND SUNNY SKIES TO START THE
DAY. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S DUE TO RETURN FLOW FROM THE SOUTH. CONDITIONS ALONG THE
COASTLINES WILL BE COOLER AS SEABREEZES DEVELOP.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN A WET WEATHER. THE EC WANT TO DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW
ALONG THE FRONT RESULTING IN MORE QPF VERSUS THE GFS WHICH JUST
PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. REGARDLESS IT APPEARS TO RAIN
SOMETIME ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING SATURDAY MORNING LASTING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT LOCATION AND OVERALL
TIMING. GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVING
THROUGH ON SATURDAY SO HAVE INSERTED ISO THUNDER FOR NOW.
HOPEFULLY OVER THE NEXT FEW RUNS MODELS WILL BECOME MORE IN-LINE
WITH ONE ANOTHER.

OTHERWISE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM EXPECT
TEMPS TO WARM UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ON SATURDAY. AS THE SYSTEM
PASSES...WINDS WILL SWITCH MORE TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST RESULTING
IN HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BY SUNDAY. SUNDAY
TEMPS MAY BE COOLER THEN FORECASTED AS NW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW COULD YIELD TO ANOTHER COLD CORE LOW SITUATION. THE EC IS
MORE AGGRESSIVE SHOWING THIS WHERE AS THE GFS IS WARMER.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE BREEZY ON MONDAY WITH THE DEPARTING LOW
MOVING OFFSHORE AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION...INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

MID NEXT WEEK...
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A POSSIBLE WARM FRONT ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TUES/WED.
HOWEVER WILL NEED TO WATCH WHERE EXACTLY THE LOW PRESSURE SETS UP.
IF IT IS SOUTH OF THE REGION THEN WE COULD SEE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS
DUE TO THE EASTERLY FLOW AS WELL AS UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

VFR WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
WINDS ALOFT WILL BE TAPPED FOR THE STRONG GUSTS. THOSE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KNOTS TONIGHT AND AT LEAST 35 KNOTS ON
THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR 40 KNOT GUSTS.  THE BACK EDGE
OF THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD REACH THE CT VALLEY BY 1 AM...AND THE
COASTAL PLAIN BY DAWN. ONCE SKIES CLEAR...EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN
CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND HIGH
CONFIDENCE THURSDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR IN SCT -SHRA. LOW PROB OF SOME ISO THUNDER ON
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. SOME SHOWERY WEATHER
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE. COOLER AIR DRAWN
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...THIS WILL PROMOTE BRINGING STRONGER WIND GUSTS DOWN FROM
ALOFT.  WINDS AT THOSE HIGHER LEVELS WILL INCREASE TO 35 KNOTS
DURING TONIGHT AND 35-40 KNOTS ON THURSDAY. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO
DRIVE THE SEA HEIGHT TO 5-8 FEET TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. GALE WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL NEW ENGLAND WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT.  EXPECT DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
HEADLINES STEPPING DOWN THROUGH SMALL CRAFTS BEFORE ENDING
OVERNIGHT.  THE OUTER WATERS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT
HEADLINES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS MAY REMAIN
ABOVE 5 FEET FOR A PORTION OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE...QUIET BOATING
WEATHER.

SATURDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SW WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED
AT TIMES IN RAIN SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDER. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
MAY BE NECESSARY ON THE OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS SHIFT TO NW AND
INCREASE AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BLOW OUT OF THE NW ON MONDAY AND BE BREEZY AS WELL. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEATHER CONDITIONS THURSDAY ARE FAVORABLE FOR FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES...MIN RH 20-30 PCT WITH DRIEST VALUES IN THE CT VALLEY
AND NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS/40 MPH MOST AREAS. BUT AFTER
COORDINATION WITH STATE CONTACTS IT IS CLEAR THAT NON-WEATHER
FACTORS ARE NOT FAVORABLE AT THIS TIME. SO WE HAVE OPTED FOR NO
FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS MULTI-
FACETED SITUATION AND UPDATE AS NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ230>237-250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
FIRE WEATHER...WTB




000
FXUS61 KBOX 231930
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
330 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES AND DRAWS ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS OUT OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WINDY AND DRYING
CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES. WINDS THEN DIMINISHING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR A
PORTION OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

UPPER LOW AND COLD POOL ARE SLOWLY MOVING EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS.
EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS TO DIMINISH. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ALSO
INCREASING WITH PRESSURE CHANGES OF 3-4MB/6 HOURS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING. WE/VE SEEN STRONGER...BUT THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
SUSTAINED WIND MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT... CLOUD-LEVEL MOISTURE DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT BUT WITH VALUES
AROUND 70 PCT LINGERING BELOW 850 MB. EXTRAPOLATION OF THE BACK
CLOUD EDGE OVER ONTARIO WOULD BRING IT TO THE CT VALLEY AROUND 1230-
1 AM. WE WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A CLEARING TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT.
COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WILL PROMOTE MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT...WITH VALUES OF 30 KNOTS EXPECTED ALOFT OVERNIGHT.  WE WILL
FORECAST NORTHWEST GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS.

THE WIND WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS MIXED. SO NO RADIATIONAL COOLING.
DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 20S WILL ALLOW ROOM FOR TEMPS TO FALL.
BUT WITH WINDS STAYING UP...TEMPS SHOULD STAY A LITTLE HIGHER. WE
USED A RANGE OF UPPER 20S AND 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON
THURSDAY AND BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT.  EXPECT MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. ANY LINGERING CLOUDS IN EASTERN MASS SHOULD QUICKLY
MOVE OFF. FULL APRIL SUN SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX TO AT LEAST 850
MB...THIS IS INDICATED IN THE MODEL FORECASTS. GIVEN THE MODEL
CAPABILITY OF UNDERESTIMATING THE MIXING DEPTH...MIXING COULD REACH
TO 825 MB OR 800 MB. EXPECT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING TO MAINTAIN
STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS ALOFT IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL
INCREASE TO 35 KNOTS...WITH POTENTIAL TO REACH 40 KNOTS. WE WILL
FEATURE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS/40 MPH AND MONITOR FOR STRONGER WINDS.
TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL BE -2C TO -3C...SUPPORTING MID 50S.  TEMPS AT
800 MB WILL BE AROUND -3C TO -4C...EQUIV TO 1-2C AT 850...AND WOULD
SUPPORT LOWER 60S. FORECAST MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S...BUT
AROUND 60 IN A FEW WARM SPOTS. IF MIXING GOES DEEPER THAN 850 MB
THEN TEMPS COULD BUMP UP 3-4 DEGREES.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
DIMINISH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH INLAND.
EXPECT MIN TEMPS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED BUT SEASONABLE WEATHER LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
* UNCERTAINTY HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK

23/00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM THOUGH
THE GFS LEANS MORE TOWARDS A BLOCKED PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK THAN
THE ECMWF. HIGH PRESSURE AND A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND THROUGH FRIDAY. THEN LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH OF THE
REGION WILL PULL A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.  THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT TRACK
OF THE LOW AND THE SPEED OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BUT THERE IS LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER.
BEYOND THIS...A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS ON BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE
GFS...THOUGH THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THIS BLOCK.  STRONG MID LEVEL
TROUGH EITHER OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OR JUST EAST OVER THE
MARITIMES RESULTS IN AN UNSETTLED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.  THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS TROUGH
ALLOWING MID LEVEL RIDGING TO REACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK BECAUSE OF THIS.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
ACCOMPANYING QUIET WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD NORTH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE ECMWF IS A FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION WITH
THE LOW MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WHILE THE GFS MOVES THE LOW THROUGH
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  REGARDLESS...THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL PRECEDE THE COLD FRONT.

SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS STATED ABOVE A MORE BLOCKED PATTERN
LOOKS TO DEVELOP WITH MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE NE BRINGING
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION.  DRY WEATHER IS CURRENTLY FORECAST
FOR SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

VFR WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
WINDS ALOFT WILL BE TAPPED FOR THE STRONG GUSTS. THOSE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KNOTS TONIGHT AND AT LEAST 35 KNOTS ON
THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR 40 KNOT GUSTS.  THE BACK EDGE
OF THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD REACH THE CT VALLEY BY 1 AM...AND THE
COASTAL PLAIN BY DAWN. ONCE SKIES CLEAR...EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN
CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND HIGH
CONFIDENCE THURSDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS/FOG.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE. COOLER AIR DRAWN
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...THIS WILL PROMOTE BRINGING STRONGER WIND GUSTS DOWN FROM
ALOFT.  WINDS AT THOSE HIGHER LEVELS WILL INCREASE TO 35 KNOTS
DURING TONIGHT AND 35-40 KNOTS ON THURSDAY. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO
DRIVE THE SEA HEIGHT TO 5-8 FEET TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. GALE WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL NEW ENGLAND WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT.  EXPECT DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
HEADLINES STEPPING DOWN THROUGH SMALL CRAFTS BEFORE ENDING
OVERNIGHT.  THE OUTER WATERS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT
HEADLINES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS MAY REMAIN
ABOVE 5 FEET FOR A PORTION OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE...QUIET BOATING
WEATHER.

SATURDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SW WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED
AT TIMES IN RAIN SHOWERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY
ON THE OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS SHIFT TO NW AND INCREASE AS
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEATHER CONDITIONS THURSDAY ARE FAVORABLE FOR FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES...MIN RH 20-30 PCT WITH DRIEST VALUES IN THE CT VALLEY
AND NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS/40 MPH MOST AREAS. BUT AFTER
COORDINATION WITH STATE CONTACTS IT IS CLEAR THAT NON-WEATHER
FACTORS ARE NOT FAVORABLE AT THIS TIME. SO WE HAVE OPTED FOR NO
FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS MULTI-
FACETED SITUATION AND UPDATE AS NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ230>237-250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 231451
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1051 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENG THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY WITH DIMINISHING WIND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR A PORTION OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CONVECTION UNDER THE UPPER LOW FIRED SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED
TSTMS DURING THE MORNING...MAINLY THE CENTRAL HILLS AND EAST.
THERE WERE A FEW REPORTS OF PEA SIZE HAIL WITH A FEW OF THE
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

CONTINUED INSTABILITY AND CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH TOTAL-
TOTALS OF 50-52. WILL CONTINUE WITH FORECAST OF LIKELY
SHOWERS/CHANCE THUNDER FOR THE AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW MOVES OFF
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WE WOULD EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO
INCREASE WITH GUST POTENTIAL OF 25-30 MPH.

NO CHANGE TO TEMPERATURE FORECAST...GENERALLY 50S WITH WARMEST
TEMPS SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN MA IN THE EVENING
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST...OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. GRADUAL CLEARING MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST DURING THE NIGHT...BUT CLOUDS PERSISTING MOST OF THE NIGHT
IN EASTERN NEW ENG WHICH REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT FROM
NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW. GUSTY NW WIND WILL PREVAIL WITH GUSTS TO
25-35 MPH. WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S LATE TONIGHT.

THURSDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW GRADUALLY PULLS AWAY WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER ACROSS E
COASTAL MA IN THE MORNING...OTHERWISE MOSUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL.
IT WILL BE QUITE WINDY WITH STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS TO 40 MPH. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND -2C SO MAX
TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S AND POSSIBLY CLOSE TO 60 IN A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED BUT SEASONABLE WEATHER LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
* UNCERTAINTY HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK

23/00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM THOUGH
THE GFS LEANS MORE TOWARDS A BLOCKED PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK THAN
THE ECMWF. HIGH PRESSURE AND A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND THROUGH FRIDAY. THEN LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH OF THE
REGION WILL PULL A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.  THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT TRACK
OF THE LOW AND THE SPEED OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BUT THERE IS LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER.
BEYOND THIS...A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS ON BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE
GFS...THOUGH THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THIS BLOCK.  STRONG MID LEVEL
TROUGH EITHER OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OR JUST EAST OVER THE
MARITIMES RESULTS IN AN UNSETTLED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.  THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS TROUGH
ALLOWING MID LEVEL RIDGING TO REACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK BECAUSE OF THIS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH ACCOMPANYING QUIET WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLE.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD NORTH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE ECMWF IS A FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION WITH
THE LOW MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WHILE THE GFS MOVES THE LOW THROUGH
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  REGARDLESS...THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL PRECEDE THE COLD FRONT.

SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS STATED ABOVE A MORE BLOCKED PATTERN
LOOKS TO DEVELOP WITH MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE NE BRINGING
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION.  DRY WEATHER IS CURRENTLY FORECAST
FOR SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SHOWERS/SCATTERED TSTMS. VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY PCPN. INCREASING
NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. GUSTS TO 25-30 KT TONIGHT AND 35-40 KT THURSDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY STRATUS OR FOG DEVELOPING
THROUGH 12Z. OTHERWISE...VFR.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS/FOG.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS. INCREASING NW WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35-40 KT EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY DIMINISH.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS MAY REMAIN
ABOVE 5 FEET FOR A PORTION OF THE DAY.  OTHERWISE...QUIET BOATING
WEATHER.

SATURDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SW WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED
AT TIMES IN RAIN SHOWERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY
ON THE OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS SHIFT TO NW AND INCREASE AS
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEATHER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY ARE LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP
TO 20-25 PERCENT AND IT WILL BE RATHER WINDY WITH NW GUSTS TO 40
MPH EXPECTED. NON-WEATHER FACTORS FOR HEADLINES ARE STILL IN
QUESTION AND WILL BE EVALUATED/COORDINATED THIS AFTERNOON. STAY
TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST FOR UPDATES ON THE FIRE WEATHER
POTENTIAL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 231052
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
652 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENG TODAY AND
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH DIMINISHING WIND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR A PORTION OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS
IS THE MAIN CONCERN THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES ARE VERY VARIABLE
RANGING FROM NEAR ZERO TO 10 MILES. THIS FOG SHOULD LIFT BY MID-
MORNING. IN ADDITION....SHOWERS ARE BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AS THE
UPPER LOW NEARS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
TO BOTH VISIBILITIES AND POPS THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY...BUT UPPER LEVEL LOW SWINGS
ACROSS THE REGION WITH AN ACCOMPANYING POTENT SHORTWAVE. TEMPS AT
500 MB COOL TO -26C UNDER THE UPPER LOW AND THIS WILL RESULT IN
RATHER STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN FOR MOCLDY SKIES TODAY AND THE
STEEP LAPSE RATES ACTING ON THE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DECENT
850-500 MB QG FORCING WILL RESULT IN SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
DEVELOPING. HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW ENG WHERE STEEPEST LAPSE RATES AND BEST
FORCING. TOTAL TOTALS SPIKE IN THE THE 50S SO CANT RULE OUT AN
ISOLD TSTM AND GIVEN LOW FREEZING LEVELS SMALL HAIL IS A
POSSIBILITY.

2M TEMPS SUGGEST MAXES MOSTLY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE AFTERNOON WILL
RESULT IN BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WITH SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING GUSTS TO
30-35 MPH BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN MA IN THE EVENING
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST...OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. GRADUAL CLEARING MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST DURING THE NIGHT...BUT CLOUDS PERSISTING MOST OF THE NIGHT
IN EASTERN NEW ENG WHICH REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT FROM
NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW. GUSTY NW WIND WILL PREVAIL WITH GUSTS TO
25-35 MPH. WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S LATE TONIGHT.

THURSDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW GRADUALLY PULLS AWAY WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER ACROSS E
COASTAL MA IN THE MORNING...OTHERWISE MOSUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL.
IT WILL BE QUITE WINDY WITH STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS TO 40 MPH. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND -2C SO MAX
TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S AND POSSIBLY CLOSE TO 60 IN A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED BUT SEASONABLE WEATHER LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
* UNCERTAINTY HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK

23/00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM THOUGH
THE GFS LEANS MORE TOWARDS A BLOCKED PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK THAN
THE ECMWF. HIGH PRESSURE AND A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND THROUGH FRIDAY. THEN LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH OF THE
REGION WILL PULL A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.  THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT TRACK
OF THE LOW AND THE SPEED OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BUT THERE IS LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER.
BEYOND THIS...A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS ON BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE
GFS...THOUGH THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THIS BLOCK.  STRONG MID LEVEL
TROUGH EITHER OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OR JUST EAST OVER THE
MARITIMES RESULTS IN AN UNSETTLED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.  THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS TROUGH
ALLOWING MID LEVEL RIDGING TO REACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK BECAUSE OF THIS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH ACCOMPANYING QUIET WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLE.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD NORTH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE ECMWF IS A FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION WITH
THE LOW MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WHILE THE GFS MOVES THE LOW THROUGH
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  REGARDLESS...THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL PRECEDE THE COLD FRONT.

SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS STATED ABOVE A MORE BLOCKED PATTERN
LOOKS TO DEVELOP WITH MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE NE BRINGING
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION.  DRY WEATHER IS CURRENTLY FORECAST
FOR SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. PATCHY IFR STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE
EARLY...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CIGS. SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
DEVELOPING WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN ANY SHOWERS. ISOLD THUNDER
POSSIBLE. INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
TO 30 KT POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. GUSTS TO 25-30 KT TONIGHT AND 35-40 KT THURSDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY STRATUS OR FOG DEVELOPING
THROUGH 12Z. OTHERWISE...VFR.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS/FOG.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS. INCREASING NW WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35-40 KT EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY DIMINISH.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS MAY REMAIN
ABOVE 5 FEET FOR A PORTION OF THE DAY.  OTHERWISE...QUIET BOATING
WEATHER.

SATURDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SW WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED
AT TIMES IN RAIN SHOWERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY
ON THE OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS SHIFT TO NW AND INCREASE AS
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY ARE LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO
20-25 PERCENT AND IT WILL BE RATHER WINDY WITH NW GUSTS TO 40 MPH
EXPECTED. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST FOR UPDATES ON THE
FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/RLG
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 230747
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
347 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENG TODAY AND
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH DIMINISHING WIND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR A PORTION OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY...BUT UPPER LEVEL LOW SWINGS
ACROSS THE REGION WITH AN ACCOMPANYING POTENT SHORTWAVE. TEMPS AT
500 MB COOL TO -26C UNDER THE UPPER LOW AND THIS WILL RESULT IN
RATHER STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN FOR MOCLDY SKIES TODAY AND THE
STEEP LAPSE RATES ACTING ON THE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DECENT
850-500 MB QG FORCING WILL RESULT IN SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
DEVELOPING. HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW ENG WHERE STEEPEST LAPSE RATES AND BEST
FORCING. TOTAL TOTALS SPIKE IN THE THE 50S SO CANT RULE OUT AN
ISOLD TSTM AND GIVEN LOW FREEZING LEVELS SMALL HAIL IS A
POSSIBILITY.

2M TEMPS SUGGEST MAXES MOSTLY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE AFTERNOON WILL
RESULT IN BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WITH SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING GUSTS TO
30-35 MPH BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN MA IN THE EVENING
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST...OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. GRADUAL CLEARING MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST DURING THE NIGHT...BUT CLOUDS PERSISTING MOST OF THE NIGHT
IN EASTERN NEW ENG WHICH REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT FROM
NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW. GUSTY NW WIND WILL PREVAIL WITH GUSTS TO
25-35 MPH. WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S LATE TONIGHT.

THURSDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW GRADUALLY PULLS AWAY WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER ACROSS E
COASTAL MA IN THE MORNING...OTHERWISE MOSUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL.
IT WILL BE QUITE WINDY WITH STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS TO 40 MPH. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND -2C SO MAX
TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S AND POSSIBLY CLOSE TO 60 IN A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED BUT SEASONABLE WEATHER LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
* UNCERTAINTY HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK

23/00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM THOUGH
THE GFS LEANS MORE TOWARDS A BLOCKED PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK THAN
THE ECMWF. HIGH PRESSURE AND A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND THROUGH FRIDAY. THEN LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH OF THE
REGION WILL PULL A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.  THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT TRACK
OF THE LOW AND THE SPEED OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BUT THERE IS LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER.
BEYOND THIS...A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS ON BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE
GFS...THOUGH THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THIS BLOCK.  STRONG MID LEVEL
TROUGH EITHER OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OR JUST EAST OVER THE
MARITIMES RESULTS IN AN UNSETTLED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.  THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS TROUGH
ALLOWING MID LEVEL RIDGING TO REACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK BECAUSE OF THIS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH ACCOMPANYING QUIET WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLE.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD NORTH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE ECMWF IS A FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION WITH
THE LOW MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WHILE THE GFS MOVES THE LOW THROUGH
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  REGARDLESS...THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL PRECEDE THE COLD FRONT.

SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS STATED ABOVE A MORE BLOCKED PATTERN
LOOKS TO DEVELOP WITH MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE NE BRINGING
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION.  DRY WEATHER IS CURRENTLY FORECAST
FOR SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...PATCHY IFR STRATUS/FOG EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. PATCHY IFR STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE
EARLY...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CIGS. SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
DEVELOPING WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN ANY SHOWERS. ISOLD THUNDER
POSSIBLE. INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
TO 30 KT POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. GUSTS TO 25-30 KT TONIGHT AND 35-40 KT THURSDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY STRATUS OR FOG DEVELOPING
THROUGH 12Z. OTHERWISE...VFR.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS/FOG.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS. INCREASING NW WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35-40 KT EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY DIMINISH.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS MAY REMAIN
ABOVE 5 FEET FOR A PORTION OF THE DAY.  OTHERWISE...QUIET BOATING
WEATHER.

SATURDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SW WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED
AT TIMES IN RAIN SHOWERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY
ON THE OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS SHIFT TO NW AND INCREASE AS
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY ARE LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO
20-25 PERCENT AND IT WILL BE RATHER WINDY WITH NW GUSTS TO 40 MPH
EXPECTED. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST FOR UPDATES ON THE
FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
FIRE WEATHER...KJC




000
FXUS61 KBOX 230553
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
153 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. THE
AIRMASS REMAINS WINDY AND UNSETTLED WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN WITH DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
145 AM UPDATE...
SHOWERS HAVE PUSHED OFFSHORE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT. BUT HIGH DEWPOINTS AND PARTIAL CLEARING HAS LED TO
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY STRATUS/FOG NEAR THE COAST. GIVEN THAT
UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 40S EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO PERSIST
OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS MOVING EAST ACROSS SNE THIS EVENING. BACK EDGE
OF THE RAIN LINES UP FAIRLY WELL WITH THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS
MOVING THROUGH THE BERKSHIRES. SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE COAST JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES TO THE EAST. ADJUSTED POPS
SLIGHTLY FOR TIMING AND REMOVED ISOLD THUNDER AS ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS CONFINED TO EASTERN PA.

TEMPERATURES COME FROM A MODEL BLEND...VALUES MAINLY IN THE 40S.
THIS LINES UP WELL WITH EXPECTED DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S DURING THE
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SUPPORTING UPPER LOW TRAILING THE SURFACE SYSTEM TAKES A NEGATIVE
TILT AS IT MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL SLOW THE PROGRESS OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. UPPER COLD POOL MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE DAY AND PROVIDES DESTABILIZATION OF THE AIRMASS. EXPECT CLOUDS
AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MOST AREAS WITH THE BEST CHANCE ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA DURING THE EVENING WHICH
WILL MAKE ROOM FOR CLEARING SKIES WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.

WINDS...THE DESTABILIZING OF THE AIRMASS WILL ALLOW MIXING UP TO
AT LEAST 900 MB /GFS/ AND POSSIBLY 850 MB /NAM/. WINDS IN THIS
LAYER ARE FORECAST TO REACH 30 KNOTS BY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY 35
KNOTS LATER IN THE DAY. WILL INCLUDE WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS IN THE
AFTERNOON. FORECAST ISALLOBARS SHOW PRESSURE RISES OF 3-5 MB/HOUR
MOVING INTO OUR AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE
NIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD MAINTAIN THEMSELVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...MIXED LAYER WILL TAP 850-EQUIVALENTS OF 0 TO -3C WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60. NIGHTTIME TEMPS
ARE A MODEL BLEND YIELDING 29 TO 41.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* GUSTY...DRY WEATHER DAY ON THURSDAY
* UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS WEEKEND
* SEASONABLE TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD

MODELS AND CONFIDENCE...
12Z SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY...ESP
FOR THIS WEEKENDS SYSTEM. SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY
THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND. A STRONG
TROUGH WILL DIG THROUGH THE FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
FRIDAY RESULTING IN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING. THIS IS
WHERE THE MODELS DIVERGE AS THE LATEST EC IS MUCH WEAKER IN ITS
SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPS THE SURFACE LOW WELL INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WHILE THE GFS PUTS IT RIGHT OVER SNE. TRENDED THIS PORTION
OF THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLES WHICH KEEPS THE LOW OVER
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. BECAUSE OF THE DIFFERENCES FOR THIS
WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS MODERATE YET...WITH THIS WEEKENDS SYSTEM
AND BEYOND HAVE A LOWER CONFIDENCE LEVEL DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN
THE GUIDANCE. HOWEVER DO HAVE A HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT SEASONABLE
TEMPS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
ALSO BELIEVE THAT RAIN WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY...JUST A LOW CONFIDENCE ON AMOUNTS AND EXACT
LOCATION.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...
VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WITH A DEPARTING LOW TO
THE EAST. THIS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL YIELD A 850MB LLJ
BETWEEN 40-50 KTS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE REGION WILL
MIX UP TO 850MB ALLOWING FOR GUSTY AND DRY CONDITIONS. THIS COULD
PROMPT THE ISSUANCE OF BOTH FIRE WEATHER AND WIND ADV HEADLINES.
MORE DETAILS ON THE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BELOW.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING
FOR THE WINDS TO RELAX AND SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT MAY RADIATE OUT IF WINDS DECOUPLE ENOUGH
RESULTING IN LOWS IN THE 30S WITH 40S IN THE METRO REGIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR DRY WEATHER AND
SUNNY SKIES TO START THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S DUE TO RETURN FLOW FROM THE SOUTH.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN WET WEATHER. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF DISCREPANCIES
REGARDING HOW MUCH...WHAT TIME AND WHERE THE PRECIP WILL FALL.
OVERALL FEEL THAT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION HAS THE BEST
SHOT IN PRECIP CHANCES. ALSO BELIEVE THIS EVENT WILL BE FAR FROM
A SOAKER AS WE HAVE SEEN IN THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS IN FACT QPF
AMOUNTS COULD REACH AROUND 0.25 INCHES. HOPEFULLY OVER THE NEXT
FEW RUNS MODELS WILL BECOME MORE IN-LINE WITH ONE ANOTHER BUT FOR
NOW TRENDED TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLES WHICH SEEM TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT.

OTHERWISE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM EXPECT
TEMPS TO WARM UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ON SATURDAY. AS THE SYSTEM
PASSES...WINDS WILL SWITCH MORE TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST RESULTING IN
HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY SUNDAY.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A POSSIBLE WARM FRONT ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS MORE SEASONABLE...OR EVEN SLIGHTLY
COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...PATCHY IFR STRATUS/FOG EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST.

TODAY...PATCHY IFR STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE EARLY...OTHERWISE MAINLY
VFR CIGS. SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN ANY SHOWERS. ISOLD THUNDER POSSIBLE. INCREASING NORTHWEST
WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. GUSTS TO
25-30 KT TONIGHT AND 35-40 KT THURSDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY STRATUS OR FOG DEVELOPING
THROUGH 12Z. OTHERWISE...VFR.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR IN SCT -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LEAD A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
CROSS THE WATERS OVERNIGHT. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO WEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.

COLD AIR AND STRONG PRESSURE RISES WILL BRING STRONG GUSTY WINDS
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT. NORTHWEST
GALES WITH GUSTS 35-40 KNOTS ARE MOST LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE
ARE CONVERTING THE PREVIOUS GALE WATCH TO A GALE WARNING WITH
COVERAGE OF ALL WATERS. NORTHWEST GALES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN 5 TO 9 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR STRONG
GUSTS OVER THE WATERS. GUSTS COULD REACH BETWEEN 34-50 KNOTS OVER
THE WATER ON THURSDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10 FEET IN RESPONSE.
EXPECT BOTH WINDS AND SEAS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER YET SEAS WILL STILL
BE WILL SLOWLY RELAXING TO 5FT BY THE AFTERNOON. SCA MAY BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SW WINDS AND SEAS
INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. VISIBILITIES MAY BE
REDUCED AT TIMES IN RAIN SHOWERS. AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES WINDS
SWITCH TO THE NW RESULTING IN GUSTY CONDITIONS. SCA MAY BE NEEDED
FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY ARE LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE
REGION WED NIGHT/THURS MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL RESULT IN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION
WITH A 40-50 KT LLJ AT 850KTS. ANTICIPATE THE ATMOSPHERE TO MIX UP
TO 850MB ON THURSDAY RESULTING IN WINDY CONDITIONS AND DRY
WEATHER. MIXING TO THIS LEVEL WILL BRING DOWN GUSTS CLOSE TO 40
KTS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW 50 KTS GUSTS AS WELL. DEWPOINT
LEVELS WILL ALSO DROP INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE CT VALLEY WITH THE
LOW 20S CLOSER TO THE COASTLINE. THE COMBINATION OF THESE LOW
DEWPOINTS AND VERY GUSTY WINDS RESULTED IN MIN RH VALUES BETWEEN
15-25 PERCENT.

WE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES TODAY AS A
COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO DROP AROUND 0.25
INCHES OF RAINFALL. ALSO WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER...A FEW
LOCATIONS MAY SEE HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS. FINALLY ON WEDNESDAY THERE
IS A POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN SHOWERS ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW WHICH MAY NOT LET FUELS DRY OUT FAST ENOUGH PER DISCUSSION
WITH OUR FIRE WEATHER PARTNERS. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST
FOR UPDATES ON THE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 230116
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
916 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. THE
AIRMASS REMAINS WINDY AND UNSETTLED WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN WITH DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
915 PM UPDATE...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS MOVING EAST ACROSS SNE THIS EVENING. BACK EDGE
OF THE RAIN LINES UP FAIRLY WELL WITH THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS
MOVING THROUGH THE BERKSHIRES. SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE COAST JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES TO THE EAST. ADJUSTED POPS
SLIGHTLY FOR TIMING AND REMOVED ISOLD THUNDER AS ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS CONFINED TO EASTERN PA.

TEMPERATURES COME FROM A MODEL BLEND...VALUES MAINLY IN THE 40S.
THIS LINES UP WELL WITH EXPECTED DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S DURING THE
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SUPPORTING UPPER LOW TRAILING THE SURFACE SYSTEM TAKES A NEGATIVE
TILT AS IT MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL SLOW THE PROGRESS OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. UPPER COLD POOL MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE DAY AND PROVIDES DESTABILIZATION OF THE AIRMASS. EXPECT CLOUDS
AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MOST AREAS WITH THE BEST CHANCE ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA DURING THE EVENING WHICH
WILL MAKE ROOM FOR CLEARING SKIES WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.

WINDS...THE DESTABILIZING OF THE AIRMASS WILL ALLOW MIXING UP TO
AT LEAST 900 MB /GFS/ AND POSSIBLY 850 MB /NAM/. WINDS IN THIS
LAYER ARE FORECAST TO REACH 30 KNOTS BY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY 35
KNOTS LATER IN THE DAY. WILL INCLUDE WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS IN THE
AFTERNOON. FORECAST ISALLOBARS SHOW PRESSURE RISES OF 3-5 MB/HOUR
MOVING INTO OUR AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE
NIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD MAINTAIN THEMSELVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...MIXED LAYER WILL TAP 850-EQUIVALENTS OF 0 TO -3C WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60. NIGHTTIME TEMPS
ARE A MODEL BLEND YIELDING 29 TO 41.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* GUSTY...DRY WEATHER DAY ON THURSDAY
* UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS WEEKEND
* SEASONABLE TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD

MODELS AND CONFIDENCE...
12Z SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY...ESP
FOR THIS WEEKENDS SYSTEM. SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY
THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND. A STRONG
TROUGH WILL DIG THROUGH THE FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
FRIDAY RESULTING IN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING. THIS IS
WHERE THE MODELS DIVERGE AS THE LATEST EC IS MUCH WEAKER IN ITS
SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPS THE SURFACE LOW WELL INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WHILE THE GFS PUTS IT RIGHT OVER SNE. TRENDED THIS PORTION
OF THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLES WHICH KEEPS THE LOW OVER
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. BECAUSE OF THE DIFFERENCES FOR THIS
WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS MODERATE YET...WITH THIS WEEKENDS SYSTEM
AND BEYOND HAVE A LOWER CONFIDENCE LEVEL DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN
THE GUIDANCE. HOWEVER DO HAVE A HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT SEASONABLE
TEMPS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
ALSO BELIEVE THAT RAIN WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY...JUST A LOW CONFIDENCE ON AMOUNTS AND EXACT
LOCATION.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...
VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WITH A DEPARTING LOW TO
THE EAST. THIS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL YIELD A 850MB LLJ
BETWEEN 40-50 KTS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE REGION WILL
MIX UP TO 850MB ALLOWING FOR GUSTY AND DRY CONDITIONS. THIS COULD
PROMPT THE ISSUANCE OF BOTH FIRE WEATHER AND WIND ADV HEADLINES.
MORE DETAILS ON THE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BELOW.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING
FOR THE WINDS TO RELAX AND SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT MAY RADIATE OUT IF WINDS DECOUPLE ENOUGH
RESULTING IN LOWS IN THE 30S WITH 40S IN THE METRO REGIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR DRY WEATHER AND
SUNNY SKIES TO START THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S DUE TO RETURN FLOW FROM THE SOUTH.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN WET WEATHER. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF DISCREPANCIES
REGARDING HOW MUCH...WHAT TIME AND WHERE THE PRECIP WILL FALL.
OVERALL FEEL THAT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION HAS THE BEST
SHOT IN PRECIP CHANCES. ALSO BELIEVE THIS EVENT WILL BE FAR FROM
A SOAKER AS WE HAVE SEEN IN THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS IN FACT QPF
AMOUNTS COULD REACH AROUND 0.25 INCHES. HOPEFULLY OVER THE NEXT
FEW RUNS MODELS WILL BECOME MORE IN-LINE WITH ONE ANOTHER BUT FOR
NOW TRENDED TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLES WHICH SEEM TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT.

OTHERWISE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM EXPECT
TEMPS TO WARM UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ON SATURDAY. AS THE SYSTEM
PASSES...WINDS WILL SWITCH MORE TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST RESULTING IN
HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY SUNDAY.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A POSSIBLE WARM FRONT ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS MORE SEASONABLE...OR EVEN SLIGHTLY
COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

915 PM UPDATE...

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS IN
SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...VFR CIGS. POTENTIAL MVFR VSBYS IN SHOWERS. INCREASING
NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUST POTENTIAL TO 30 KNOTS. LOW CHANCE OF 35
KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. GUST POTENTIAL
TO 30 KNOTS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS. STRONG AND GUSTY NW
WINDS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30-40 KTS.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR IN SCT -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LEAD A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
CROSS THE WATERS OVERNIGHT. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO WEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.

COLD AIR AND STRONG PRESSURE RISES WILL BRING STRONG GUSTY WINDS
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT. NORTHWEST
GALES WITH GUSTS 35-40 KNOTS ARE MOST LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE
ARE CONVERTING THE PREVIOUS GALE WATCH TO A GALE WARNING WITH
COVERAGE OF ALL WATERS. NORTHWEST GALES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN 5 TO 9 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR STRONG
GUSTS OVER THE WATERS. GUSTS COULD REACH BETWEEN 34-50 KNOTS OVER
THE WATER ON THURSDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10 FEET IN RESPONSE.
EXPECT BOTH WINDS AND SEAS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER YET SEAS WILL STILL
BE WILL SLOWLY RELAXING TO 5FT BY THE AFTERNOON. SCA MAY BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SW WINDS AND SEAS
INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. VISIBILITIES MAY BE
REDUCED AT TIMES IN RAIN SHOWERS. AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES WINDS
SWITCH TO THE NW RESULTING IN GUSTY CONDITIONS. SCA MAY BE NEEDED
FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY ARE LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE
REGION WED NIGHT/THURS MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL RESULT IN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION
WITH A 40-50 KT LLJ AT 850KTS. ANTICIPATE THE ATMOSPHERE TO MIX UP
TO 850MB ON THURSDAY RESULTING IN WINDY CONDITIONS AND DRY
WEATHER. MIXING TO THIS LEVEL WILL BRING DOWN GUSTS CLOSE TO 40
KTS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW 50 KTS GUSTS AS WELL. DEWPOINT
LEVELS WILL ALSO DROP INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE CT VALLEY WITH THE
LOW 20S CLOSER TO THE COASTLINE. THE COMBINATION OF THESE LOW
DEWPOINTS AND VERY GUSTY WINDS RESULTED IN MIN RH VALUES BETWEEN
15-25 PERCENT.

WE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES TODAY AS A
COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO DROP AROUND 0.25
INCHES OF RAINFALL. ALSO WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER...A FEW
LOCATIONS MAY SEE HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS. FINALLY ON WEDNESDAY THERE
IS A POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN SHOWERS ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW WHICH MAY NOT LET FUELS DRY OUT FAST ENOUGH PER DISCUSSION
WITH OUR FIRE WEATHER PARTNERS. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST
FOR UPDATES ON THE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/KJC
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 222305
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
705 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. THE
AIRMASS REMAINS WINDY AND UNSETTLED WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN WITH DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

700 PM UPDATE...
OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. HAVE ADJUSTED
PRECIP TIMING TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. COLD FRONT IS STILL
POSITION OUT WEST ACROSS BERKSHIRE COUNTY AT THIS TIME. INITIAL
LINE OF PRECIP ACROSS WORCESTER AND TOLLAND CO IS STRUGGLING
MOVING EASTWARDS AS TEMP DEWPOINT SPREAD IS OVER 20 DEGREES.
EXPECT EITHER VIRGA OR JUST A FEW SPRINKLES ALONG THIS LINE.
OTHERWISE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO WESTERN MA. LOW PROBABILITY THAT THUNDER
MAY OCCUR BUT STILL CANT RULE IT OUT...THEREFORE JUST MENTIONED
ISOLATED CHANCES AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES COME FROM A MODEL BLEND...VALUES MAINLY IN THE 40S.
THIS LINES UP WELL WITH EXPECTED DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S DURING THE
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SUPPORTING UPPER LOW TRAILING THE SURFACE SYSTEM TAKES A NEGATIVE
TILT AS IT MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL SLOW THE PROGRESS OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. UPPER COLD POOL MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE DAY AND PROVIDES DESTABILIZATION OF THE AIRMASS. EXPECT CLOUDS
AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MOST AREAS WITH THE BEST CHANCE ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA DURING THE EVENING WHICH
WILL MAKE ROOM FOR CLEARING SKIES WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.

WINDS...THE DESTABILIZING OF THE AIRMASS WILL ALLOW MIXING UP TO
AT LEAST 900 MB /GFS/ AND POSSIBLY 850 MB /NAM/. WINDS IN THIS
LAYER ARE FORECAST TO REACH 30 KNOTS BY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY 35
KNOTS LATER IN THE DAY. WILL INCLUDE WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS IN THE
AFTERNOON. FORECAST ISALLOBARS SHOW PRESSURE RISES OF 3-5 MB/HOUR
MOVING INTO OUR AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE
NIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD MAINTAIN THEMSELVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...MIXED LAYER WILL TAP 850-EQUIVILENTS OF 0 TO -3C WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60. NIGHTTIME TEMPS
ARE A MODEL BLEND YIELDING 29 TO 41.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* GUSTY...DRY WEATHER DAY ON THURSDAY
* UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS WEEKEND
* SEASONABLE TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD

MODELS AND CONFIDENCE...
12Z SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY...ESP
FOR THIS WEEKENDS SYSTEM. SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY
THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND. A STRONG
TROUGH WILL DIG THROUGH THE FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
FRIDAY RESULTING IN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING. THIS IS
WHERE THE MODELS DIVERGE AS THE LATEST EC IS MUCH WEAKER IN ITS
SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPS THE SURFACE LOW WELL INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WHILE THE GFS PUTS IT RIGHT OVER SNE. TRENDED THIS PORTION
OF THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLES WHICH KEEPS THE LOW OVER
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. BECAUSE OF THE DIFFERENCES FOR THIS
WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS MODERATE YET...WITH THIS WEEKENDS SYSTEM
AND BEYOND HAVE A LOWER CONFIDENCE LEVEL DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN
THE GUIDANCE. HOWEVER DO HAVE A HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT SEASONABLE
TEMPS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
ALSO BELIEVE THAT RAIN WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY...JUST A LOW CONFIDENCE ON AMOUNTS AND EXACT
LOCATION.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...
VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WITH A DEPARTING LOW TO
THE EAST. THIS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL YIELD A 850MB LLJ
BETWEEN 40-50 KTS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE REGION WILL
MIX UP TO 850MB ALLOWING FOR GUSTY AND DRY CONDITIONS. THIS COULD
PROMPT THE ISSUANCE OF BOTH FIRE WEATHER AND WIND ADV HEADLINES.
MORE DETAILS ON THE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BELOW.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING
FOR THE WINDS TO RELAX AND SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT MAY RADIATE OUT IF WINDS DECOUPLE ENOUGH
RESULTING IN LOWS IN THE 30S WITH 40S IN THE METRO REGIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR DRY WEATHER AND
SUNNY SKIES TO START THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S DUE TO RETURN FLOW FROM THE SOUTH.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN WET WEATHER. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF DISCREPANCIES
REGARDING HOW MUCH...WHAT TIME AND WHERE THE PRECIP WILL FALL.
OVERALL FEEL THAT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION HAS THE BEST
SHOT IN PRECIP CHANCES. ALSO BELIEVE THIS EVENT WILL BE FAR FROM
A SOAKER AS WE HAVE SEEN IN THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS IN FACT QPF
AMOUNTS COULD REACH AROUND 0.25 INCHES. HOPEFULLY OVER THE NEXT
FEW RUNS MODELS WILL BECOME MORE IN-LINE WITH ONE ANOTHER BUT FOR
NOW TRENDED TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLES WHICH SEEM TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT.

OTHERWISE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM EXPECT
TEMPS TO WARM UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ON SATURDAY. AS THE SYSTEM
PASSES...WINDS WILL SWITCH MORE TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST RESULTING IN
HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY SUNDAY.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A POSSIBLE WARM FRONT ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS MORE SEASONABLE...OR EVEN SLIGHTLY
COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...OBSERVATIONS IN EASTERN NY SHOW THAT WHERE CONDITIONS
ARE STRUGGLING TO REACH MVFR IN BOTH VSBY AND CIGS. THE FORECAST
FOLLOWS THAT PATH WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS DURING ANY HEAVY
SHOWERS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TSTM LEADING THE WINDSHIFT BUT NOT
SUFFICIENT COVERAGE TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

WEDNESDAY...VFR CIGS. POTENTIAL MVFR VSBYS IN SHOWERS.
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUST POTENTIAL TO 30 KNOTS. LOW
CHANCE OF 35 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. GUST POTENTIAL
TO 30 KNOTS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS. STRONG AND GUSTY NW
WINDS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30-40 KTS.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR IN SCT -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LEAD A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
CROSS THE WATERS OVERNIGHT. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO WEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.

COLD AIR AND STRONG PRESSURE RISES WILL BRING STRONG GUSTY WINDS
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT. NORTHWEST
GALES WITH GUSTS 35-40 KNOTS ARE MOST LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE
ARE CONVERTING THE PREVIOUS GALE WATCH TO A GALE WARNING WITH
COVERAGE OF ALL WATERS. NORTHWEST GALES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN 5 TO 9 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR STRONG
GUSTS OVER THE WATERS. GUSTS COULD REACH BETWEEN 34-50 KNOTS OVER
THE WATER ON THURSDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10 FEET IN RESPONSE.
EXPECT BOTH WINDS AND SEAS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER YET SEAS WILL STILL
BE WILL SLOWLY RELAXING TO 5FT BY THE AFTERNOON. SCA MAY BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SW WINDS AND SEAS
INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. VISIBILITIES MAY BE
REDUCED AT TIMES IN RAIN SHOWERS. AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES WINDS
SWITCH TO THE NW RESULTING IN GUSTY CONDITIONS. SCA MAY BE NEEDED
FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY ARE LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE
REGION WED NIGHT/THURS MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL RESULT IN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION
WITH A 40-50 KT LLJ AT 850KTS. ANTICIPATE THE ATMOSPHERE TO MIX UP
TO 850MB ON THURSDAY RESULTING IN WINDY CONDITIONS AND DRY
WEATHER. MIXING TO THIS LEVEL WILL BRING DOWN GUSTS CLOSE TO 40
KTS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW 50 KTS GUSTS AS WELL. DEWPOINT
LEVELS WILL ALSO DROP INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE CT VALLEY WITH THE
LOW 20S CLOSER TO THE COASTLINE. THE COMBINATION OF THESE LOW
DEWPOINTS AND VERY GUSTY WINDS RESULTED IN MIN RH VALUES BETWEEN
15-25 PERCENT.

WE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES TODAY AS A
COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO DROP AROUND 0.25
INCHES OF RAINFALL. ALSO WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER...A FEW
LOCATIONS MAY SEE HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS. FINALLY ON WEDNESDAY THERE
IS A POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN SHOWERS ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW WHICH MAY NOT LET FUELS DRY OUT FAST ENOUGH PER DISCUSSION
WITH OUR FIRE WEATHER PARTNERS. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST
FOR UPDATES ON THE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
FIRE WEATHER...DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 222009
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
409 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. THE
AIRMASS REMAINS WINDY AND UNSETTLED WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN WITH DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS THICKENING FROM WEST TO EAST. SHOWERS IN NEW YORK WILL MOVE
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT.
INITIALLY...THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRY ENOUGH SO THAT ECHOES ON
RADAR SHOULD REPRESENT VIRGA. MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS WILL THEN
MOVE ACROSS BRINGING MEASUREABLE RAIN. AMOUNTS UPSTREAM HAVE BEEN
0.1 TO 0.2 INCHES...LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WE WILL GO WITH
THE LOWER QPF WITH THIS FORECAST. NOTE THAT THE TOTAL-TOTALS
PARMETER IS FORECAST IN THE LOW 50S DURING FROPA. WE WILL INCLUDE
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS IN THE FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES COME FROM A MODEL BLEND...VALUES MAINLY IN THE 40S.
THIS LINES UP WELL WITH EXPECTED DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S DURING THE
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SUPPORTING UPPER LOW TRAILING THE SURFACE SYSTEM TAKES A NEGATIVE
TILT AS IT MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL SLOW THE PROGRESS OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. UPPER COLD POOL MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE DAY AND PROVIDES DESTABILIZATION OF THE AIRMASS. EXPECT CLOUDS
AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MOST AREAS WITH THE BEST CHANCE ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA DURING THE EVENING WHICH
WILL MAKE ROOM FOR CLEARING SKIES WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.

WINDS...THE DESTABILIZING OF THE AIRMASS WILL ALLOW MIXING UP TO
AT LEAST 900 MB /GFS/ AND POSSIBLY 850 MB /NAM/. WINDS IN THIS
LAYER ARE FORECAST TO REACH 30 KNOTS BY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY 35
KNOTS LATER IN THE DAY. WILL INCLUDE WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS IN THE
AFTERNOON. FORECAST ISALLOBARS SHOW PRESSURE RISES OF 3-5 MB/HOUR
MOVING INTO OUR AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE
NIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD MAINTAIN THEMSELVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...MIXED LAYER WILL TAP 850-EQUIVILENTS OF 0 TO -3C WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60. NIGHTTIME TEMPS
ARE A MODEL BLEND YIELDING 29 TO 41.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* GUSTY...DRY WEATHER DAY ON THURSDAY
* UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS WEEKEND
* SEASONABLE TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD

MODELS AND CONFIDENCE...
12Z SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY...ESP
FOR THIS WEEKENDS SYSTEM. SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY
THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND. A STRONG
TROUGH WILL DIG THROUGH THE FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY
FRIDAY RESULTING IN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING. THIS IS
WHERE THE MODELS DIVERGE AS THE LATEST EC IS MUCH WEAKER IN ITS
SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPS THE SURFACE LOW WELL INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WHILE THE GFS PUTS IT RIGHT OVER SNE. TRENDED THIS PORTION
OF THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLES WHICH KEEPS THE LOW OVER
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. BECAUSE OF THE DIFFERENCES FOR THIS
WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS MODERATE YET...WITH THIS WEEKENDS SYSTEM
AND BEYOND HAVE A LOWER CONFIDENCE LEVEL DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN
THE GUIDANCE. HOWEVER DO HAVE A HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT SEASONABLE
TEMPS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
ALSO BELIEVE THAT RAIN WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY...JUST A LOW CONFIDENCE ON AMOUNTS AND EXACT
LOCATION.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...
VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WITH A DEPARTING LOW TO
THE EAST. THIS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL YIELD A 850MB LLJ
BETWEEN 40-50 KTS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE REGION WILL
MIX UP TO 850MB ALLOWING FOR GUSTY AND DRY CONDITIONS. THIS COULD
PROMPT THE ISSUANCE OF BOTH FIRE WEATHER AND WIND ADV HEADLINES.
MORE DETAILS ON THE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BELOW.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING
FOR THE WINDS TO RELAX AND SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT MAY RADIATE OUT IF WINDS DECOUPLE ENOUGH
RESULTING IN LOWS IN THE 30S WITH 40S IN THE METRO REGIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR DRY WEATHER AND
SUNNY SKIES TO START THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S DUE TO RETURN FLOW FROM THE SOUTH.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN WET WEATHER. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF DISCREPANCIES
REGARDING HOW MUCH...WHAT TIME AND WHERE THE PRECIP WILL FALL.
OVERALL FEEL THAT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION HAS THE BEST
SHOT IN PRECIP CHANCES. ALSO BELIEVE THIS EVENT WILL BE FAR FROM
A SOAKER AS WE HAVE SEEN IN THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS IN FACT QPF
AMOUNTS COULD REACH AROUND 0.25 INCHES. HOPEFULLY OVER THE NEXT
FEW RUNS MODELS WILL BECOME MORE IN-LINE WITH ONE ANOTHER BUT FOR
NOW TRENDED TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLES WHICH SEEM TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT.

OTHERWISE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM EXPECT
TEMPS TO WARM UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ON SATURDAY. AS THE SYSTEM
PASSES...WINDS WILL SWITCH MORE TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST RESULTING IN
HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY SUNDAY.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A POSSIBLE WARM FRONT ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS MORE SEASONABLE...OR EVEN SLIGHTLY
COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR MOST OF THE WAY. LINE OF SHOWERS IN NEW YORK
MOVES EAST. THESE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 00Z.

TONIGHT...OBSERVATIONS IN WESTERN/CENTRAL NY SHOW THAT WHERE
CONDITIONS DO DROP BELOW VFR...THEY ARE MOSTLY MVFR. THE FORECAST
FOLLOWS THAT PATH WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS DURING ANY SHOWERS
THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS LEADING THE WINDSHIFT BUT NOT
SUFFICIENT COVERAGE TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

WEDNESDAY...VFR CIGS. POTENTIAL MVFR VSBYS IN SHOWERS.
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUST POTENTIAL TO 30 KNOTS. LOW
CHANCE OF 35 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. GUST POTENTIAL
TO 30 KNOTS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS. STRONG AND GUSTY NW
WINDS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30-40 KTS.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR IN SCT -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LEAD A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
CROSS THE WATERS OVERNIGHT. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO WEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.

COLD AIR AND STRONG PRESSURE RISES WILL BRING STRONG GUSTY WINDS
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT. NORTHWEST
GALES WITH GUSTS 35-40 KNOTS ARE MOST LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE
ARE CONVERTING THE PREVIOUS GALE WATCH TO A GALE WARNING WITH
COVERAGE OF ALL WATERS. NORTHWEST GALES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN 5 TO 9 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR STRONG
GUSTS OVER THE WATERS. GUSTS COULD REACH BETWEEN 34-50 KNOTS OVER
THE WATER ON THURSDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10 FEET IN RESPONSE.
EXPECT BOTH WINDS AND SEAS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER YET SEAS WILL STILL
BE WILL SLOWLY RELAXING TO 5FT BY THE AFTERNOON. SCA MAY BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SW WINDS AND SEAS
INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. VISIBILITIES MAY BE
REDUCED AT TIMES IN RAIN SHOWERS. AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES WINDS
SWITCH TO THE NW RESULTING IN GUSTY CONDITIONS. SCA MAY BE NEEDED
FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY ARE LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE
REGION WED NIGHT/THURS MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL RESULT IN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION
WITH A 40-50 KT LLJ AT 850KTS. ANTICIPATE THE ATMOSPHERE TO MIX UP
TO 850MB ON THURSDAY RESULTING IN WINDY CONDITIONS AND DRY
WEATHER. MIXING TO THIS LEVEL WILL BRING DOWN GUSTS CLOSE TO 40
KTS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW 50 KTS GUSTS AS WELL. DEWPOINT
LEVELS WILL ALSO DROP INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE CT VALLEY WITH THE
LOW 20S CLOSER TO THE COASTLINE. THE COMBINATION OF THESE LOW
DEWPOINTS AND VERY GUSTY WINDS RESULTED IN MIN RH VALUES BETWEEN
15-25 PERCENT.

WE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES TODAY AS A
COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO DROP AROUND 0.25
INCHES OF RAINFALL. ALSO WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER...A FEW
LOCATIONS MAY SEE HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS. FINALLY ON WEDNESDAY THERE
IS A POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN SHOWERS ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW WHICH MAY NOT LET FUELS DRY OUT FAST ENOUGH PER DISCUSSION
WITH OUR FIRE WEATHER PARTNERS. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST
FOR UPDATES ON THE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
FIRE WEATHER...DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 221954
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
354 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. THE
AIRMASS REMAINS WINDY AND UNSETTLED WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN WITH DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS THICKENING FROM WEST TO EAST. SHOWERS IN NEW YORK WILL MOVE
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT.
INITIALLY...THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRY ENOUGH SO THAT ECHOES ON
RADAR SHOULD REPRESENT VIRGA. MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS WILL THEN
MOVE ACROSS BRINGING MEASUREABLE RAIN. AMOUNTS UPSTREAM HAVE BEEN
0.1 TO 0.2 INCHES...LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WE WILL GO WITH
THE LOWER QPF WITH THIS FORECAST. NOTE THAT THE TOTAL-TOTALS
PARMETER IS FORECAST IN THE LOW 50S DURING FROPA. WE WILL INCLUDE
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS IN THE FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES COME FROM A MODEL BLEND...VALUES MAINLY IN THE 40S.
THIS LINES UP WELL WITH EXPECTED DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S DURING THE
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

SUPPORTING UPPER LOW TRAILING THE SURFACE SYSTEM TAKES A NEGATIVE
TILT AS IT MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL SLOW THE PROGRESS OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. UPPER COLD POOL MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE DAY AND PROVIDES DESTABILIZATION OF THE AIRMASS. EXPECT CLOUDS
AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MOST AREAS WITH THE BEST CHANCE ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA DURING THE EVENING WHICH
WILL MAKE ROOM FOR CLEARING SKIES WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.

WINDS...THE DESTABILIZING OF THE AIRMASS WILL ALLOW MIXING UP TO
AT LEAST 900 MB /GFS/ AND POSSIBLY 850 MB /NAM/. WINDS IN THIS
LAYER ARE FORECAST TO REACH 30 KNOTS BY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY 35
KNOTS LATER IN THE DAY. WILL INCLUDE WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS IN THE
AFTERNOON. FORECAST ISALLOBARS SHOW PRESSURE RISES OF 3-5 MB/HOUR
MOVING INTO OUR AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE
NIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD MAINTAIN THEMSELVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS...MIXED LAYER WILL TAP 850-EQUIVILENTS OF 0 TO -3C WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60. NIGHTTIME TEMPS
ARE A MODEL BLEND YIELDING 29 TO 41.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
* WINDY...COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED NIGHT AND THU
* UNSETTLED BUT SEASONABLE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND

22/00Z MODELS ARE IN BETTER THAN NORMAL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.  WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD OFF THE
PERIOD AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH LOW PRESSURE PULLING
AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING.  WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AND OFFSHORE
FRIDAY.  THIS WEEKEND...MODELS HINT AT A MORE BLOCKED PATTERN
DEVELOPING WITH RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND TROUGHING
LINGERING OVER THE NE.  THIS LEADS TO A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR OUR
WEATHER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  AT THIS POINT...LOOKS
LIKE WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE...THERE COULD BE SOME
RAIN SHOWERS WITH A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.  THEN POTENTIALLY DRIER
WEATHER LEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.  HOWEVER...IF THIS BLOCKING PATTERN
DEVELOPS...THIS COULD CHANGE.

THURSDAY...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...WILL
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY. AT THIS POINT...BELIEVE WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER...THEY ARE CLOSE SO
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FRIDAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT OF A TRANSITION DAY
BETWEEN THE WIND ON THURSDAY AND A COLD FRONT SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO SEASONABLE NORMS.  LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
QUEBEC INTO THE MARITIMES ON SATURDAY BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SATURDAY.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS STATED ABOVE A MORE BLOCKED PATTERN
LOOKS TO DEVELOP WITH MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE NE BRINGING
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR MOST OF THE WAY. LINE OF SHOWERS IN NEW YORK
MOVES EAST. THESE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 00Z.

TONIGHT...OBSERVATIONS IN WESTERN/CENTRAL NY SHOW THAT WHERE
CONDITIONS DO DROP BELOW VFR...THEY ARE MOSTLY MVFR. THE FORECAST
FOLLOWS THAT PATH WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS DURING ANY SHOWERS
THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS LEADING THE WINDSHIFT BUT NOT
SUFFICIENT COVERAGE TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

WEDNESDAY...VFR CIGS. POTENTIAL MVFR VSBYS IN SHOWERS.
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUST POTENTIAL TO 30 KNOTS. LOW
CHANCE OF 35 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. GUST POTENTIAL
TO 30 KNOTS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. STRONG AND GUSTY NW WINDS.
GUSTS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 30 KTS MOST AREAS. LOW PROBABILITY OF
GUSTS TO 35 KTS ALONG THE COASTS.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR IN
SCT -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LEAD A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
CROSS THE WATERS OVERNIGHT. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO WEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.

COLD AIR AND STRONG PRESSURE RISES WILL BRING STRONG GUSTY WINDS
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT. NORTHWEST
GALES WITH GUSTS 35-40 KNOTS ARE MOST LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE
ARE CONVERTING THE PREVIOUS GALE WATCH TO A GALE WARNING WITH
COVERAGE OF ALL WATERS. NORTHWEST GALES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN 5 TO 9 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THURSDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEAS RANGE BETWEEN 5 AND
10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS PEAKING DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. NORTHWESTERLY GALES ARE LIKELY AS OCEAN STORM PULLS EAST
INTO THE MARITIMES. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS PERIOD.
WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER.

SATURDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SW WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED
AT TIMES IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG/JWD




000
FXUS61 KBOX 221758
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
158 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ARRIVES LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SWINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. WINDY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. INITIALLY...THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRY ENOUGH SO THAT
ECHOES ON RADAR SHOULD REPRESENT VIRGA. AFTER 19Z MORE
SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS APPROACHING CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL REACH THE CT
VALLEY. EXPECT INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THE AFTERNOON AS THESE SHOWERS MOVE IN.

MORNING RAOBS SHOW SUPPORT FOR MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S. BASED ON 10 AM TEMPS...MAX TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES...MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
IN COASTAL BOSTON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG THIS EVENING ALONG S COAST...CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.

MOST OF SHOWERS OCCUR TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY ALOFT WITH TOTAL TOTALS RISING INTO LOWER
50S AND DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION
OF THUNDER ACROSS MUCH OF REGION. RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE
0.25 TO PERHAPS 0.50 INCHES...HIGHEST ACROSS INTERIOR.

STAYED CLOSE TO GFS/NAM MOS BLEND WITH LOWS HOLDING IN 40S.

FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM FOR LATE APRIL AS UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN
WINTRY-LOOKING WRAP AROUND PATTERN ON NW SIDE OF DEPARTING
SURFACE LOW. 00Z NAM TAKES SYSTEM MUCH FARTHER S THAN 00Z
GFS/ECMWF AND APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER. PREFER MORE NORTHERN TRACK
WHICH FOCUSES RAINFALL ON E MA/S NH WED MORNING AS OPPOSED TO S
COASTAL AREAS BEFORE CLEARING SETS IN DURING AFTERNOON WITH
DEPARTURE OF UPPER TROUGH.

SHOULD BECOME WINDY WED AFTERNOON AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEPENING
MIXED LAYER AND TIGHTENING GRADIENT...ESPECIALLY LATER IN DAY.

LEANED MORE TOWARD GFS MOS GIVEN ITS BETTER HANDLING OF SYSTEM.
HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
* WINDY...COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED NIGHT AND THU
* UNSETTLED BUT SEASONABLE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND

22/00Z MODELS ARE IN BETTER THAN NORMAL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.  WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD OFF THE
PERIOD AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH LOW PRESSURE PULLING
AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING.  WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AND OFFSHORE
FRIDAY.  THIS WEEKEND...MODELS HINT AT A MORE BLOCKED PATTERN
DEVELOPING WITH RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND TROUGHING
LINGERING OVER THE NE.  THIS LEADS TO A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR OUR
WEATHER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  AT THIS POINT...LOOKS
LIKE WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE...THERE COULD BE SOME
RAIN SHOWERS WITH A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.  THEN POTENTIALLY DRIER
WEATHER LEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.  HOWEVER...IF THIS BLOCKING PATTERN
DEVELOPS...THIS COULD CHANGE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NANTUCKET WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES WHILE A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE REGION PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  IN
ADDITION...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND COUPLED WITH STEEP
LAPSE RATES...WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.  AT THIS POINT...BELIEVE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.  HOWEVER...THEY ARE CLOSE SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
IT IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FRIDAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT OF A TRANSITION DAY
BETWEEN THE WIND ON THURSDAY AND A COLD FRONT SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO SEASONABLE NORMS.  LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
QUEBEC INTO THE MARITIMES ON SATURDAY BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SATURDAY.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS STATED ABOVE A MORE BLOCKED PATTERN
LOOKS TO DEVELOP WITH MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE NE BRINGING
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR MOST OF THE WAY. LINE OF SHOWERS IN NEW YORK
MOVES EAST. THESE COULD REACH THE CT VALLEY 21-22Z/CENTRAL HILLS
22-23Z/COASTAL PLAIN 23Z-00Z.

TONIGHT...OBSERVATIONS IN WESTERN/CENTRAL NY SHOW THAT WHERE
CONDITIONS DO DROP BELOW VFR...THEY ARE MOSTLY MVFR. THE FORECAST
FOLLOWS THAT PATH WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS DURING ANY SHOWERS
THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS LEADING THE WINDSHIFT BUT NOT
SUFFICIENT COVERAGE TO INCLUDE IN TAF. POTENTIAL PROBLEM IN THE
FORECAST...NO MVFR CIGS DURING THE SHOWERS. /TOO MUCH GRID EDITING
NEEDED ON OTHER CATEGORIES AND SO WE RAN OUT OF TIME TO COVER THAT
BEFORE 18Z TRANSMISSION./

WEDNESDAY...VFR CIGS. POTENTIAL MVFR VSBYS IN SHOWERS.
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUST POTENTIAL TO 30 KNOTS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. GUST POTENTIAL
TO 30 KNOTS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. STRONG AND GUSTY NW WINDS.
GUSTS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 30 KTS MOST AREAS. LOW PROBABILITY OF
GUSTS TO 35 KTS ALONG THE COASTS.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR IN
SCT -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING S/SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT BUT
GUSTS SHOULD STAY BELOW 25KT. SEAS GRADUALLY BUILD HOWEVER AND
SHOULD REACH 5 FT ON WATERS NEAR MERRIMACK RIVER...WHERE WE WILL
HAVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSTED BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON.

S FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG/LOW CLOUDS ON S
COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT CROSSES WATERS TONIGHT
SHIFTING WINDS TO N/NW LATE...AND ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.

FRONT HEADS OFFSHORE WED WITH INCREASING N/NW WINDS WED AFTERNOON.
FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN GALE FORCE GUSTS LATE IN DAY NEAR SHORE...
INCLUDING BOSTON HARBOR AND NARRAGANSETT BAY BEFORE WINDS POSSIBLY
SUBSIDE WED EVENING FOR A TIME.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEAS
RANGE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS PEAKING
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. NORTHWESTERLY GALES ARE LIKELY AS OCEAN
STORM PULLS EAST INTO THE MARITIMES.  A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THIS PERIOD.  WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER.

SATURDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SW WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED
AT TIMES IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOODING HAS ENDED ALONG LOWEST REACHES OF CT RIVER NEAR
MIDDLE HADDAM. FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/JWD
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG/JWD
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 221425
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1025 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ARRIVES LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SWINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. WINDY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. INITIALLY...THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRY ENOUGH SO THAT
ECHOES ON RADAR SHOULD REPRESENT VIRGA. AFTER 19Z MORE
SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS APPROACHING CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL REACH THE CT
VALLEY. EXPECT INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THE AFTERNOON AS THESE SHOWERS MOVE IN.

MORNING RAOBS SHOW SUPPORT FOR MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S. BASED ON 10 AM TEMPS...MAX TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES...MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
IN COASTAL BOSTON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG THIS EVENING ALONG S COAST...CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.

MOST OF SHOWERS OCCUR TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY ALOFT WITH TOTAL TOTALS RISING INTO LOWER
50S AND DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION
OF THUNDER ACROSS MUCH OF REGION. RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE
0.25 TO PERHAPS 0.50 INCHES...HIGHEST ACROSS INTERIOR.

STAYED CLOSE TO GFS/NAM MOS BLEND WITH LOWS HOLDING IN 40S.

FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM FOR LATE APRIL AS UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN
WINTRY-LOOKING WRAP AROUND PATTERN ON NW SIDE OF DEPARTING
SURFACE LOW. 00Z NAM TAKES SYSTEM MUCH FARTHER S THAN 00Z
GFS/ECMWF AND APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER. PREFER MORE NORTHERN TRACK
WHICH FOCUSES RAINFALL ON E MA/S NH WED MORNING AS OPPOSED TO S
COASTAL AREAS BEFORE CLEARING SETS IN DURING AFTERNOON WITH
DEPARTURE OF UPPER TROUGH.

SHOULD BECOME WINDY WED AFTERNOON AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEPENING
MIXED LAYER AND TIGHTENING GRADIENT...ESPECIALLY LATER IN DAY.

LEANED MORE TOWARD GFS MOS GIVEN ITS BETTER HANDLING OF SYSTEM.
HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
* WINDY...COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED NIGHT AND THU
* UNSETTLED BUT SEASONABLE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND

22/00Z MODELS ARE IN BETTER THAN NORMAL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.  WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD OFF THE
PERIOD AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH LOW PRESSURE PULLING
AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING.  WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AND OFFSHORE
FRIDAY.  THIS WEEKEND...MODELS HINT AT A MORE BLOCKED PATTERN
DEVELOPING WITH RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND TROUGHING
LINGERING OVER THE NE.  THIS LEADS TO A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR OUR
WEATHER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  AT THIS POINT...LOOKS
LIKE WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE...THERE COULD BE SOME
RAIN SHOWERS WITH A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.  THEN POTENTIALLY DRIER
WEATHER LEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.  HOWEVER...IF THIS BLOCKING PATTERN
DEVELOPS...THIS COULD CHANGE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NANTUCKET WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES WHILE A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE REGION PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  IN
ADDITION...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND COUPLED WITH STEEP
LAPSE RATES...WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.  AT THIS POINT...BELIEVE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.  HOWEVER...THEY ARE CLOSE SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
IT IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FRIDAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT OF A TRANSITION DAY
BETWEEN THE WIND ON THURSDAY AND A COLD FRONT SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO SEASONABLE NORMS.  LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
QUEBEC INTO THE MARITIMES ON SATURDAY BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SATURDAY.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS STATED ABOVE A MORE BLOCKED PATTERN
LOOKS TO DEVELOP WITH MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE NE BRINGING
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CIGS AOA 120 THIS AFTERNOON WITH S/SW WINDS AND NO EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE. SHOWERS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT REACH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS BUT PROBABLY
NOT UNTIL AFTER 00Z WED ALONG E MA COAST. LIFR EXPECTED AROUND
CAPE COD AND ISLANDS...PRIMARILY DUE TO FOG. ISOLATED THUNDER
POSSIBLE TONIGHT BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW FOR INCLUDING IN TAFS.

MVFR/IFR CIGS WED MORNING WITH SCT SHOWERS...MAINLY IN EASTERN MA
WITH VFR CIGS ELSEWHERE. INCREASING N/NW WINDS WED AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25-30KT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. NO SEA BREEZE EXPECTED
TODAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR. STRONG
AND GUSTY NW WINDS. GUSTS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 30 KTS MOST AREAS.
LOW PROBABILITY OF GUSTS TO 35 KTS ALONG THE COASTS.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR IN
SCT -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING S/SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT BUT
GUSTS SHOULD STAY BELOW 25KT. SEAS GRADUALLY BUILD HOWEVER AND
SHOULD REACH 5 FT ON WATERS NEAR MERRIMACK RIVER...WHERE WE WILL
HAVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSTED BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON.

S FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG/LOW CLOUDS ON S
COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT CROSSES WATERS TONIGHT
SHIFTING WINDS TO N/NW LATE...AND ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.

FRONT HEADS OFFSHORE WED WITH INCREASING N/NW WINDS WED AFTERNOON.
FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN GALE FORCE GUSTS LATE IN DAY NEAR SHORE...
INCLUDING BOSTON HARBOR AND NARRAGANSETT BAY BEFORE WINDS POSSIBLY
SUBSIDE WED EVENING FOR A TIME.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEAS
RANGE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS PEAKING
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. NORTHWESTERLY GALES ARE LIKELY AS OCEAN
STORM PULLS EAST INTO THE MARITIMES.  A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THIS PERIOD.  WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER.

SATURDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SW WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED
AT TIMES IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOODING HAS ENDED ALONG LOWEST REACHES OF CT RIVER NEAR
MIDDLE HADDAM. FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RLG/JWD
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...RLG/JWD
MARINE...WTB/RLG/JWD
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 221051
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
651 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ARRIVES LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SWINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.
WINDY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR UPDATES TO THE TEMPERATURE AND
DEWPOINT GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS. OTHERWISE...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

340 AM UPDATE...

PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS HAS PREVENTED MUCH IN WAY OF FOG/LOW CLOUD FORMATION WHICH
SHOULD BE RULE THROUGH DAYBREAK.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH S/SW FLOW IN PLACE
AHEAD OF IT. MODELS SIMILAR ON TIMING...BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS
INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LEANED ON 21Z/21
SREF FOR TIMING WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH 00Z NAM/GFS COMPROMISE.

WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF FRONT WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER MILD DAY WITH
HIGHS IN 60S/LOWER 70S...WARMEST IN MERRIMACK AND CT VALLEYS.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS IN 50S/LOWER 60S ALONG S COAST. USED
BLEND OF GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG THIS EVENING ALONG S COAST...CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.

MOST OF SHOWERS OCCUR TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY ALOFT WITH TOTAL TOTALS RISING INTO LOWER
50S AND DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION
OF THUNDER ACROSS MUCH OF REGION. RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE
0.25 TO PERHAPS 0.50 INCHES...HIGHEST ACROSS INTERIOR.

STAYED CLOSE TO GFS/NAM MOS BLEND WITH LOWS HOLDING IN 40S.

FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM FOR LATE APRIL AS UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN
WINTRY-LOOKING WRAP AROUND PATTERN ON NW SIDE OF DEPARTING
SURFACE LOW. 00Z NAM TAKES SYSTEM MUCH FARTHER S THAN 00Z
GFS/ECMWF AND APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER. PREFER MORE NORTHERN TRACK
WHICH FOCUSES RAINFALL ON E MA/S NH WED MORNING AS OPPOSED TO S
COASTAL AREAS BEFORE CLEARING SETS IN DURING AFTERNOON WITH
DEPARTURE OF UPPER TROUGH.

SHOULD BECOME WINDY WED AFTERNOON AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEPENING
MIXED LAYER AND TIGHTENING GRADIENT...ESPECIALLY LATER IN DAY.

LEANED MORE TOWARD GFS MOS GIVEN ITS BETTER HANDLING OF SYSTEM.
HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
* WINDY...COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED NIGHT AND THU
* UNSETTLED BUT SEASONABLE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND

22/00Z MODELS ARE IN BETTER THAN NORMAL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.  WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD OFF THE
PERIOD AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH LOW PRESSURE PULLING
AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING.  WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AND OFFSHORE
FRIDAY.  THIS WEEKEND...MODELS HINT AT A MORE BLOCKED PATTERN
DEVELOPING WITH RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND TROUGHING
LINGERING OVER THE NE.  THIS LEADS TO A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR OUR
WEATHER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  AT THIS POINT...LOOKS
LIKE WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE...THERE COULD BE SOME
RAIN SHOWERS WITH A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.  THEN POTENTIALLY DRIER
WEATHER LEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.  HOWEVER...IF THIS BLOCKING PATTERN
DEVELOPS...THIS COULD CHANGE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NANTUCKET WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES WHILE A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE REGION PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  IN
ADDITION...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND COUPLED WITH STEEP
LAPSE RATES...WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.  AT THIS POINT...BELIEVE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.  HOWEVER...THEY ARE CLOSE SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
IT IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FRIDAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT OF A TRANSITION DAY
BETWEEN THE WIND ON THURSDAY AND A COLD FRONT SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO SEASONABLE NORMS.  LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
QUEBEC INTO THE MARITIMES ON SATURDAY BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SATURDAY.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS STATED ABOVE A MORE BLOCKED PATTERN
LOOKS TO DEVELOP WITH MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE NE BRINGING
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CIGS AOA 120 TODAY WITH S/SW WINDS AND NO EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE. SHOWERS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT REACH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS BUT PROBABLY NOT
UNTIL AFTER 00Z WED ALONG E MA COAST. LIFR EXPECTED AROUND CAPE
COD AND ISLANDS...PRIMARILY DUE TO FOG. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE
TONIGHT BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW FOR INCLUDING IN TAFS.

MVFR/IFR CIGS WED MORNING WITH SCT SHOWERS...MAINLY IN EASTERN MA
WITH VFR CIGS ELSEWHERE. INCREASING N/NW WINDS WED AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25-30KT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. NO SEA BREEZE EXPECTED
TODAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR. STRONG
AND GUSTY NW WINDS. GUSTS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 30 KTS MOST AREAS.
LOW PROBABILITY OF GUSTS TO 35 KTS ALONG THE COASTS.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR IN
SCT -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING S/SW WINDS TODAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT BUT GUSTS SHOULD
STAY BELOW 25KT. SEAS GRADUALLY BUILD HOWEVER AND SHOULD REACH 5
FT ON WATERS NEAR MERRIMACK RIVER...WHERE WE WILL HAVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES POSTED BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON.

S FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG/LOW CLOUDS ON S
COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT CROSSES WATERS TONIGHT
SHIFTING WINDS TO N/NW LATE...AND ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.

FRONT HEADS OFFSHORE WED WITH INCREASING N/NW WINDS WED AFTERNOON.
FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN GALE FORCE GUSTS LATE IN DAY NEAR SHORE...
INCLUDING BOSTON HARBOR AND NARRAGANSETT BAY BEFORE WINDS POSSIBLY
SUBSIDE WED EVENING FOR A TIME.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEAS
RANGE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS PEAKING
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. NORTHWESTERLY GALES ARE LIKELY AS OCEAN
STORM PULLS EAST INTO THE MARITIMES.  A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THIS PERIOD.  WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER.

SATURDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SW WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED
AT TIMES IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOODING HAS ENDED ALONG LOWEST REACHES OF CT RIVER NEAR
MIDDLE HADDAM. FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM NOON TODAY TO
     MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/JWD
NEAR TERM...RLG/JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...RLG/JWD
MARINE...WTB/RLG/JWD
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 220740
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
340 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ARRIVES LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SWINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.
WINDY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
340 AM UPDATE...

RADAR SHOWS SOME ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH INTERIOR...WHICH IS ONLY
A FEW SPRINKLES AT BEST GIVEN DRY AIR AT LOWER LEVELS. OTHERWISE
PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS HAS PREVENTED MUCH IN WAY OF FOG/LOW CLOUD FORMATION WHICH
SHOULD BE RULE THROUGH DAYBREAK.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH S/SW FLOW IN PLACE
AHEAD OF IT. MODELS SIMILAR ON TIMING...BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS
INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LEANED ON 21Z/21
SREF FOR TIMING WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH 00Z NAM/GFS COMPROMISE.

WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF FRONT WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER MILD DAY WITH
HIGHS IN 60S/LOWER 70S...WARMEST IN MERRIMACK AND CT VALLEYS.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS IN 50S/LOWER 60S ALONG S COAST. USED
BLEND OF GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG THIS EVENING ALONG S COAST...CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.

MOST OF SHOWERS OCCUR TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY ALOFT WITH TOTAL TOTALS RISING INTO LOWER
50S AND DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION
OF THUNDER ACROSS MUCH OF REGION. RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE
0.25 TO PERHAPS 0.50 INCHES...HIGHEST ACROSS INTERIOR.

STAYED CLOSE TO GFS/NAM MOS BLEND WITH LOWS HOLDING IN 40S.

FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM FOR LATE APRIL AS UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN
WINTRY-LOOKING WRAPAROUND PATTERN ON NW SIDE OF DEPARTING SURFACE
LOW. 00Z NAM TAKES SYSTEM MUCH FARTHER S THAN 00Z GFS/ECMWF AND
APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER. PREFER MORE NORTHERN TRACK WHICH FOCUSES
RAINFALL ON E MA/S NH WED MORNING AS OPPOSED TO S COASTAL AREAS
BEFORE CLEARING SETS IN DURING AFTERNOON WITH DEPARTURE OF UPPER
TROUGH.

SHOULD BECOME WINDY WED AFTERNOON AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEPENING
MIXED LAYER AND TIGHTENING GRADIENT...ESPECIALLY LATER IN DAY.

LEANED MORE TOWARD GFS MOS GIVEN ITS BETTER HANDLING OF SYSTEM.
HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

* WINDY...COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED NIGHT AND THU
* UNSETTLED BUT SEASONABLE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND

22/00Z MODELS ARE IN BETTER THAN NORMAL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.  WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD OFF THE
PERIOD AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH LOW PRESSURE PULLING
AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING.  WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AND OFFSHORE
FRIDAY.  THIS WEEKEND...MODELS HINT AT A MORE BLOCKED PATTERN
DEVELOPING WITH RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND TROUGHING
LINGERING OVER THE NE.  THIS LEADS TO A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR OUR
WEATHER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  AT THIS POINT...LOOKS
LIKE WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE...THERE COULD BE SOME
RAIN SHOWERS WITH A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.  THEN POTENTIALLY DRIER
WEATHER LEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.  HOWEVER...IF THIS BLOCKING PATTERN
DEVELOPS...THIS COULD CHANGE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NANTUCKET WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES WHILE A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE REGION PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  IN
ADDITION...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND COUPLED WITH STEEP
LAPSE RATES...WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.  AT THIS POINT...BELIEVE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.  HOWEVER...THEY ARE CLOSE SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
IT IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FRIDAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT OF A TRANSITION DAY
BETWEEN THE WIND ON THURSDAY AND A COLD FRONT SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO SEASONABLE NORMS.  LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
QUEBEC INTO THE MARITIMES ON SATURDAY BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SATURDAY.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS STATED ABOVE A MORE BLOCKED PATTERN
LOOKS TO DEVELOP WITH MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE NE BRINGING
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

VFR CIGS AOA 120 TODAY WITH S/SW WINDS AND NO EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE. SHOWERS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT REACH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS BUT PROBABLY
NOT UNTIL AFTER 00Z WED ALONG E MA COAST. LIFR EXPECTED AROUND
CAPE COD AND ISLANDS...PRIMARILY DUE TO FOG. ISOLATED THUNDER
POSSIBLE TONIGHT BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW FOR INCLUDING IN TAFS.

MVFR/IFR CIGS WED MORNING WITH SCT SHOWERS...MAINLY IN EASTERN MA
WITH VFR CIGS ELSEWHERE. INCREASING N/NW WINDS WED AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25-30KT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. NO SEA BREEZE EXPECTED
TODAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR. STRONG
AND GUSTY NW WINDS. GUSTS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 30 KTS MOST AREAS.
LOW PROBABILITY OF GUSTS TO 35 KTS ALONG THE COASTS.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR IN
SCT -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

INCREASING S/SW WINDS TODAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT BUT GUSTS SHOULD
STAY BELOW 25KT. SEAS GRADUALLY BUILD HOWEVER AND SHOULD REACH 5
FT ON WATERS NEAR MERRIMACK RIVER...WHERE WE WILL HAVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES POSTED BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON.

S FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG/LOW CLOUDS ON S
COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT CROSSES WATERS TONIGHT
SHIFTING WINDS TO N/NW LATE...AND ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.

FRONT HEADS OFFSHORE WED WITH INCREASING N/NW WINDS WED AFTERNOON.
FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN GALE FORCE GUSTS LATE IN DAY NEAR SHORE...
INCLUDING BOSTON HARBOR AND NARRAGANSETT BAY BEFORE WINDS POSSIBLY
SUBSIDE WED EVENING FOR A TIME.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEAS
RANGE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS PEAKING
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. NORTHWESTERLY GALES ARE LIKELY AS OCEAN
STORM PULLS EAST INTO THE MARITIMES.  A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THIS PERIOD.  WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER.

SATURDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SW WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED
AT TIMES IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOODING HAS ENDED ALONG LOWEST REACHES OF CT RIVER NEAR
MIDDLE HADDAM. FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM NOON TODAY TO
     MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...RLG/JWD
MARINE...RLG/JWD
HYDROLOGY...JWD




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