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000
FXUS61 KBOX 302306
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
706 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST INTO THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY
AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACK TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 4 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...
MAINLY QUIET ACROSS SNE THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS/SCT T-STORMS TO
THE NORTH AND WEST. HRRR BRINGS A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS W MA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...OTHERWISE IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AS BATCH OF HEAVIER WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED T-STORMS LIKELY MOVES IN FROM THE SW TOWARD DAYBREAK. MIN
TEMPS MOSTLY 60-65 WITH SOME UPPER 50S IN THE BERKSHIRES.
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /4 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL
APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE SOME SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.  WHILE SURFACE INSTABILITY IS LACKING DURING THIS TIME...
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR SOME
SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDER WITHIN THE BROADER AREA OF SHOWERS.
WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION WITH THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS
OCCURRING...MODELS DO SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON THE 09-12Z TIME
FRAME.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2.0 INCHES WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON.  COUPLED WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...THIS IS A
RECIPE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  A
QUICK INCH OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR IS NOT UNREASONABLE.  THIS
COULD RESULT IN POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN FLOODING.  THE BENEFIT OF
THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS STORMS SHOULD MOVE ALONG AT A FAIRLY
GOOD SPEED.  THIS WILL REDUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODING SOMEWHAT.
MAIN FLOODING THREAT WILL BE WITH ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS.

LATER INTO THE MORNING WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT TURNS MORE TO SEVERE
WEATHER AND POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN.  AS THIS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...
THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL WILL INCITE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THIS INCREASES THE INSTABILITY TOWARDS THE SURFACE TO GO ALONG WITH
THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY.  THIS IS EVIDENT IN SBCAPES FORECAST OVER
1000 J/KG.  A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET HAS PROVIDED PLENTY OF SHEAR...0-
6 KM VALUES ARE 30-50KTS AND 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES ARE OVER 100
M2/S2.

THE MAIN QUESTION SURROUNDING THIS FORECAST IS WHETHER THE
INSTABILITY INCREASES BEFORE THE SHEAR DIMINISHES IN THE AFTERNOON.
IF EVERYTHING LINES UP...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY.  DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
OF THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION /EXPECTED TO
BE EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT THIS TIME/ AND THE HELICITY
VALUES...THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM THU THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT
  LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT

OVERVIEW...
EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS WITH RATHER AMPLIFIED PATTERN FOR EARLY JULY
WITH RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC
NORTHWARD TO GREENLAND WHICH RESULTS IN TROF FROM GT LAKES INTO NEW
ENG LIFTING TO THE NORTH BY FRI. HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH W CANADA WILL SERVE TO DEAMPLIFY THE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND
WITH WEAK POLAR JET SETTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN CONUS. WEAK
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW MAY BRING A WEAK MOISTURE STARVED
COLD FRONT ON SAT.  THEN SOME RIDGING ALOFT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT TIMING OF NEXT SHORTWAVE IS UNCERTAIN.
OVERALL IT LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY REMAINING WELL TO THE SOUTH.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A TSTM POSSIBLE EARLY WED
EVENING...OTHERWISE A DRY NIGHT EXPECTED. THE COLD WILL BE SLOWLY
CROSSING THE REGION WED NIGHT...STALLING INVOF OF THE S COAST ON THU
AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW.  HOWEVER...LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES A RATHER DRY COLUMN THU WITH VERY LOW KI VALUES
AND SFC INSTABILITY IS ABOUT NIL. SO EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH
PT-MOSUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPS.

THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...
THERE IS STILL A LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS PERIOD...MAINLY WITH
RESPECT TO HOW FAR NORTH MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH GETS. COLD FRONT
MOVES TO THE S THU NIGHT AND WEAK HIGH PRES SETTLES INTO THE REGION
WHICH SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS FRI.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES RIDING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH WHICH WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. IT IS POSSIBLE
A FEW SHOWERS COULD FLIRT WITH THE IMMEDIATE S COAST AND
CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. AT THE VERY LEAST...EXPECT
MORE CLOUD COVER DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT ANY NORTH ADJUSTMENT COULD
BRING A STEADIER RAIN TO CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

SAT THROUGH TUE...
A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION SOMETIME SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
ASSOCD WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH...BUT EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING
OF NEXT IMPULSE WHICH WILL DETERMINE WHETHER ANY SHOWERS MOVE IN
NEXT TUE. TEMPS MODERATE SUN/MON BASED ON WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS NEXT TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THIS EVENING...BUT IFR STRATUS
AND PATCHY FOG LIKELY DEVELOPING ALONG THE SE NEW ENGLAND COAST
LATE TONIGHT. ALSO...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO
MVFR. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION IS THE
LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHRA AND SCT TSRA.
RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHRA/TSRA. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT SCT T-STORMS MAY REDEVELOP.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WED NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPING...OTHERWISE VFR.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRI THROUGH SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. BUT STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A SHOWER RISK ALONG THE S COAST AND
CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE
TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND AND
BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.  THESE MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED AS WE MOVE INTO
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WED NIGHT...PREFRONTAL SW GUSTS TO 20 KT WITH SCA SEAS OVER
THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

THU...LIGHT SW WINDS...BUT LINGERING SOUTHERLY SWELL YIELDING SCA
SEAS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

FRI THROUGH SUN...HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS LEADS TO A PERIOD OF
MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 302306
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
706 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST INTO THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY
AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACK TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 4 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...
MAINLY QUIET ACROSS SNE THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS/SCT T-STORMS TO
THE NORTH AND WEST. HRRR BRINGS A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS W MA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...OTHERWISE IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AS BATCH OF HEAVIER WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED T-STORMS LIKELY MOVES IN FROM THE SW TOWARD DAYBREAK. MIN
TEMPS MOSTLY 60-65 WITH SOME UPPER 50S IN THE BERKSHIRES.
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /4 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL
APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE SOME SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.  WHILE SURFACE INSTABILITY IS LACKING DURING THIS TIME...
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR SOME
SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDER WITHIN THE BROADER AREA OF SHOWERS.
WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION WITH THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS
OCCURRING...MODELS DO SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON THE 09-12Z TIME
FRAME.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2.0 INCHES WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON.  COUPLED WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...THIS IS A
RECIPE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  A
QUICK INCH OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR IS NOT UNREASONABLE.  THIS
COULD RESULT IN POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN FLOODING.  THE BENEFIT OF
THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS STORMS SHOULD MOVE ALONG AT A FAIRLY
GOOD SPEED.  THIS WILL REDUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODING SOMEWHAT.
MAIN FLOODING THREAT WILL BE WITH ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS.

LATER INTO THE MORNING WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT TURNS MORE TO SEVERE
WEATHER AND POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN.  AS THIS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...
THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL WILL INCITE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THIS INCREASES THE INSTABILITY TOWARDS THE SURFACE TO GO ALONG WITH
THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY.  THIS IS EVIDENT IN SBCAPES FORECAST OVER
1000 J/KG.  A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET HAS PROVIDED PLENTY OF SHEAR...0-
6 KM VALUES ARE 30-50KTS AND 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES ARE OVER 100
M2/S2.

THE MAIN QUESTION SURROUNDING THIS FORECAST IS WHETHER THE
INSTABILITY INCREASES BEFORE THE SHEAR DIMINISHES IN THE AFTERNOON.
IF EVERYTHING LINES UP...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY.  DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
OF THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION /EXPECTED TO
BE EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT THIS TIME/ AND THE HELICITY
VALUES...THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM THU THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT
  LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT

OVERVIEW...
EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS WITH RATHER AMPLIFIED PATTERN FOR EARLY JULY
WITH RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC
NORTHWARD TO GREENLAND WHICH RESULTS IN TROF FROM GT LAKES INTO NEW
ENG LIFTING TO THE NORTH BY FRI. HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH W CANADA WILL SERVE TO DEAMPLIFY THE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND
WITH WEAK POLAR JET SETTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN CONUS. WEAK
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW MAY BRING A WEAK MOISTURE STARVED
COLD FRONT ON SAT.  THEN SOME RIDGING ALOFT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT TIMING OF NEXT SHORTWAVE IS UNCERTAIN.
OVERALL IT LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY REMAINING WELL TO THE SOUTH.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A TSTM POSSIBLE EARLY WED
EVENING...OTHERWISE A DRY NIGHT EXPECTED. THE COLD WILL BE SLOWLY
CROSSING THE REGION WED NIGHT...STALLING INVOF OF THE S COAST ON THU
AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW.  HOWEVER...LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES A RATHER DRY COLUMN THU WITH VERY LOW KI VALUES
AND SFC INSTABILITY IS ABOUT NIL. SO EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH
PT-MOSUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPS.

THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...
THERE IS STILL A LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS PERIOD...MAINLY WITH
RESPECT TO HOW FAR NORTH MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH GETS. COLD FRONT
MOVES TO THE S THU NIGHT AND WEAK HIGH PRES SETTLES INTO THE REGION
WHICH SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS FRI.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES RIDING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH WHICH WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. IT IS POSSIBLE
A FEW SHOWERS COULD FLIRT WITH THE IMMEDIATE S COAST AND
CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. AT THE VERY LEAST...EXPECT
MORE CLOUD COVER DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT ANY NORTH ADJUSTMENT COULD
BRING A STEADIER RAIN TO CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

SAT THROUGH TUE...
A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION SOMETIME SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
ASSOCD WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH...BUT EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING
OF NEXT IMPULSE WHICH WILL DETERMINE WHETHER ANY SHOWERS MOVE IN
NEXT TUE. TEMPS MODERATE SUN/MON BASED ON WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS NEXT TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THIS EVENING...BUT IFR STRATUS
AND PATCHY FOG LIKELY DEVELOPING ALONG THE SE NEW ENGLAND COAST
LATE TONIGHT. ALSO...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO
MVFR. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION IS THE
LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHRA AND SCT TSRA.
RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHRA/TSRA. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT SCT T-STORMS MAY REDEVELOP.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WED NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPING...OTHERWISE VFR.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRI THROUGH SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. BUT STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A SHOWER RISK ALONG THE S COAST AND
CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE
TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND AND
BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.  THESE MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED AS WE MOVE INTO
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WED NIGHT...PREFRONTAL SW GUSTS TO 20 KT WITH SCA SEAS OVER
THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

THU...LIGHT SW WINDS...BUT LINGERING SOUTHERLY SWELL YIELDING SCA
SEAS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

FRI THROUGH SUN...HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS LEADS TO A PERIOD OF
MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 302306
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
706 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST INTO THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY
AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACK TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 4 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...
MAINLY QUIET ACROSS SNE THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS/SCT T-STORMS TO
THE NORTH AND WEST. HRRR BRINGS A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS W MA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...OTHERWISE IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AS BATCH OF HEAVIER WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED T-STORMS LIKELY MOVES IN FROM THE SW TOWARD DAYBREAK. MIN
TEMPS MOSTLY 60-65 WITH SOME UPPER 50S IN THE BERKSHIRES.
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /4 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL
APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE SOME SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.  WHILE SURFACE INSTABILITY IS LACKING DURING THIS TIME...
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR SOME
SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDER WITHIN THE BROADER AREA OF SHOWERS.
WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION WITH THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS
OCCURRING...MODELS DO SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON THE 09-12Z TIME
FRAME.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2.0 INCHES WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON.  COUPLED WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...THIS IS A
RECIPE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  A
QUICK INCH OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR IS NOT UNREASONABLE.  THIS
COULD RESULT IN POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN FLOODING.  THE BENEFIT OF
THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS STORMS SHOULD MOVE ALONG AT A FAIRLY
GOOD SPEED.  THIS WILL REDUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODING SOMEWHAT.
MAIN FLOODING THREAT WILL BE WITH ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS.

LATER INTO THE MORNING WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT TURNS MORE TO SEVERE
WEATHER AND POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN.  AS THIS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...
THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL WILL INCITE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THIS INCREASES THE INSTABILITY TOWARDS THE SURFACE TO GO ALONG WITH
THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY.  THIS IS EVIDENT IN SBCAPES FORECAST OVER
1000 J/KG.  A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET HAS PROVIDED PLENTY OF SHEAR...0-
6 KM VALUES ARE 30-50KTS AND 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES ARE OVER 100
M2/S2.

THE MAIN QUESTION SURROUNDING THIS FORECAST IS WHETHER THE
INSTABILITY INCREASES BEFORE THE SHEAR DIMINISHES IN THE AFTERNOON.
IF EVERYTHING LINES UP...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY.  DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
OF THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION /EXPECTED TO
BE EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT THIS TIME/ AND THE HELICITY
VALUES...THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM THU THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT
  LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT

OVERVIEW...
EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS WITH RATHER AMPLIFIED PATTERN FOR EARLY JULY
WITH RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC
NORTHWARD TO GREENLAND WHICH RESULTS IN TROF FROM GT LAKES INTO NEW
ENG LIFTING TO THE NORTH BY FRI. HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH W CANADA WILL SERVE TO DEAMPLIFY THE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND
WITH WEAK POLAR JET SETTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN CONUS. WEAK
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW MAY BRING A WEAK MOISTURE STARVED
COLD FRONT ON SAT.  THEN SOME RIDGING ALOFT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT TIMING OF NEXT SHORTWAVE IS UNCERTAIN.
OVERALL IT LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY REMAINING WELL TO THE SOUTH.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A TSTM POSSIBLE EARLY WED
EVENING...OTHERWISE A DRY NIGHT EXPECTED. THE COLD WILL BE SLOWLY
CROSSING THE REGION WED NIGHT...STALLING INVOF OF THE S COAST ON THU
AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW.  HOWEVER...LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES A RATHER DRY COLUMN THU WITH VERY LOW KI VALUES
AND SFC INSTABILITY IS ABOUT NIL. SO EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH
PT-MOSUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPS.

THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...
THERE IS STILL A LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS PERIOD...MAINLY WITH
RESPECT TO HOW FAR NORTH MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH GETS. COLD FRONT
MOVES TO THE S THU NIGHT AND WEAK HIGH PRES SETTLES INTO THE REGION
WHICH SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS FRI.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES RIDING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH WHICH WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. IT IS POSSIBLE
A FEW SHOWERS COULD FLIRT WITH THE IMMEDIATE S COAST AND
CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. AT THE VERY LEAST...EXPECT
MORE CLOUD COVER DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT ANY NORTH ADJUSTMENT COULD
BRING A STEADIER RAIN TO CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

SAT THROUGH TUE...
A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION SOMETIME SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
ASSOCD WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH...BUT EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING
OF NEXT IMPULSE WHICH WILL DETERMINE WHETHER ANY SHOWERS MOVE IN
NEXT TUE. TEMPS MODERATE SUN/MON BASED ON WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS NEXT TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THIS EVENING...BUT IFR STRATUS
AND PATCHY FOG LIKELY DEVELOPING ALONG THE SE NEW ENGLAND COAST
LATE TONIGHT. ALSO...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO
MVFR. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION IS THE
LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHRA AND SCT TSRA.
RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHRA/TSRA. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT SCT T-STORMS MAY REDEVELOP.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WED NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPING...OTHERWISE VFR.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRI THROUGH SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. BUT STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A SHOWER RISK ALONG THE S COAST AND
CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE
TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND AND
BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.  THESE MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED AS WE MOVE INTO
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WED NIGHT...PREFRONTAL SW GUSTS TO 20 KT WITH SCA SEAS OVER
THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

THU...LIGHT SW WINDS...BUT LINGERING SOUTHERLY SWELL YIELDING SCA
SEAS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

FRI THROUGH SUN...HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS LEADS TO A PERIOD OF
MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 301954
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
354 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST INTO THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY
AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACK TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AT THIS
TIME.  WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS TRACK THROUGH THIS AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AS LARGER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
NEW YORK STATE AND INTO VERMONT.  NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER WITH
THIS AREA OF SHOWERS.  ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...WE ARE STARTING
TO SEE SOME DIURNAL CU POP UP.  TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE
COASTLINES WHERE SEABREEZES HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
70S.

TONIGHT...DIURNAL CU WILL DIMINISH AS SURFACE HEATING IS LOST.  DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN TOWARDS DAWN.  OVERNIGHT...INCREASED HUMIDITY
/DEWPOINTS/ WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL
APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE SOME SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.  WHILE SURFACE INSTABILITY IS LACKING DURING THIS TIME...
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR SOME
SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDER WITHIN THE BROADER AREA OF SHOWERS.
WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION WITH THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS
OCCURRING...MODELS DO SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON THE 09-12Z TIME
FRAME.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2.0 INCHES WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON.  COUPLED WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...THIS IS A
RECIPE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  A
QUICK INCH OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR IS NOT UNREASONABLE.  THIS
COULD RESULT IN POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN FLOODING.  THE BENEFIT OF
THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS STORMS SHOULD MOVE ALONG AT A FAIRLY
GOOD SPEED.  THIS WILL REDUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODING SOMEWHAT.
MAIN FLOODING THREAT WILL BE WITH ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS.

LATER INTO THE MORNING WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT TURNS MORE TO SEVERE
WEATHER AND POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN.  AS THIS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...
THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL WILL INCITE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THIS INCREASES THE INSTABILITY TOWARDS THE SURFACE TO GO ALONG WITH
THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY.  THIS IS EVIDENT IN SBCAPES FORECAST OVER
1000 J/KG.  A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET HAS PROVIDED PLENTY OF SHEAR...0-
6 KM VALUES ARE 30-50KTS AND 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES ARE OVER 100
M2/S2.

THE MAIN QUESTION SURROUNDING THIS FORECAST IS WHETHER THE
INSTABILITY INCREASES BEFORE THE SHEAR DIMINISHES IN THE AFTERNOON.
IF EVERYTHING LINES UP...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY.  DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
OF THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION /EXPECTED TO
BE EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT THIS TIME/ AND THE HELICITY
VALUES...THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM THU THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT
  LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT

OVERVIEW...
EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS WITH RATHER AMPLIFIED PATTERN FOR EARLY JULY
WITH RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC
NORTHWARD TO GREENLAND WHICH RESULTS IN TROF FROM GT LAKES INTO NEW
ENG LIFTING TO THE NORTH BY FRI. HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH W CANADA WILL SERVE TO DEAMPLIFY THE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND
WITH WEAK POLAR JET SETTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN CONUS. WEAK
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW MAY BRING A WEAK MOISTURE STARVED
COLD FRONT ON SAT.  THEN SOME RIDGING ALOFT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT TIMING OF NEXT SHORTWAVE IS UNCERTAIN.
OVERALL IT LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY REMAINING WELL TO THE SOUTH.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A TSTM POSSIBLE EARLY WED
EVENING...OTHERWISE A DRY NIGHT EXPECTED. THE COLD WILL BE SLOWLY
CROSSING THE REGION WED NIGHT...STALLING INVOF OF THE S COAST ON THU
AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW.  HOWEVER...LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES A RATHER DRY COLUMN THU WITH VERY LOW KI VALUES
AND SFC INSTABILITY IS ABOUT NIL. SO EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH
PT-MOSUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPS.

THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...
THERE IS STILL A LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS PERIOD...MAINLY WITH
RESPECT TO HOW FAR NORTH MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH GETS. COLD FRONT
MOVES TO THE S THU NIGHT AND WEAK HIGH PRES SETTLES INTO THE REGION
WHICH SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS FRI.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES RIDING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH WHICH WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. IT IS POSSIBLE
A FEW SHOWERS COULD FLIRT WITH THE IMMEDIATE S COAST AND
CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. AT THE VERY LEAST...EXPECT
MORE CLOUD COVER DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT ANY NORTH ADJUSTMENT COULD
BRING A STEADIER RAIN TO CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

SAT THROUGH TUE...
A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION SOMETIME SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
ASSOCD WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH...BUT EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING
OF NEXT IMPULSE WHICH WILL DETERMINE WHETHER ANY SHOWERS MOVE IN
NEXT TUE. TEMPS MODERATE SUN/MON BASED ON WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS NEXT TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF
SHOWER/T-STORM IN NW MA LATE TODAY. SEA BREEZES CONTINUE AT
COASTLINES.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THIS EVENING. MAY SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE AT SOME LOCATIONS...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR
THIS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. MAY ALSO SEE AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION IS THE
LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD TSRA. RISK FOR A FEW
STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
IN SHRA/TSRA.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WED NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPING...OTHERWISE VFR.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRI THROUGH SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. BUT STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A SHOWER RISK ALONG THE S COAST AND
CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE
TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND AND
BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.  THESE MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED AS WE MOVE INTO
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WED NIGHT...PREFRONTAL SW GUSTS TO 20 KT WITH SCA SEAS OVER
THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

THU...LIGHT SW WINDS...BUT LINGERING SOUTHERLY SWELL YIELDING SCA
SEAS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

FRI THROUGH SUN...HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS LEADS TO A PERIOD OF
MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 301954
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
354 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST INTO THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY
AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACK TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AT THIS
TIME.  WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS TRACK THROUGH THIS AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AS LARGER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
NEW YORK STATE AND INTO VERMONT.  NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER WITH
THIS AREA OF SHOWERS.  ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...WE ARE STARTING
TO SEE SOME DIURNAL CU POP UP.  TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE
COASTLINES WHERE SEABREEZES HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
70S.

TONIGHT...DIURNAL CU WILL DIMINISH AS SURFACE HEATING IS LOST.  DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN TOWARDS DAWN.  OVERNIGHT...INCREASED HUMIDITY
/DEWPOINTS/ WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL
APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE SOME SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.  WHILE SURFACE INSTABILITY IS LACKING DURING THIS TIME...
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR SOME
SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDER WITHIN THE BROADER AREA OF SHOWERS.
WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION WITH THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS
OCCURRING...MODELS DO SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON THE 09-12Z TIME
FRAME.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2.0 INCHES WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON.  COUPLED WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...THIS IS A
RECIPE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  A
QUICK INCH OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR IS NOT UNREASONABLE.  THIS
COULD RESULT IN POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN FLOODING.  THE BENEFIT OF
THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS STORMS SHOULD MOVE ALONG AT A FAIRLY
GOOD SPEED.  THIS WILL REDUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODING SOMEWHAT.
MAIN FLOODING THREAT WILL BE WITH ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS.

LATER INTO THE MORNING WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT TURNS MORE TO SEVERE
WEATHER AND POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN.  AS THIS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...
THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL WILL INCITE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THIS INCREASES THE INSTABILITY TOWARDS THE SURFACE TO GO ALONG WITH
THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY.  THIS IS EVIDENT IN SBCAPES FORECAST OVER
1000 J/KG.  A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET HAS PROVIDED PLENTY OF SHEAR...0-
6 KM VALUES ARE 30-50KTS AND 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES ARE OVER 100
M2/S2.

THE MAIN QUESTION SURROUNDING THIS FORECAST IS WHETHER THE
INSTABILITY INCREASES BEFORE THE SHEAR DIMINISHES IN THE AFTERNOON.
IF EVERYTHING LINES UP...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY.  DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
OF THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION /EXPECTED TO
BE EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT THIS TIME/ AND THE HELICITY
VALUES...THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM THU THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT
  LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT

OVERVIEW...
EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS WITH RATHER AMPLIFIED PATTERN FOR EARLY JULY
WITH RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC
NORTHWARD TO GREENLAND WHICH RESULTS IN TROF FROM GT LAKES INTO NEW
ENG LIFTING TO THE NORTH BY FRI. HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH W CANADA WILL SERVE TO DEAMPLIFY THE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND
WITH WEAK POLAR JET SETTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN CONUS. WEAK
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW MAY BRING A WEAK MOISTURE STARVED
COLD FRONT ON SAT.  THEN SOME RIDGING ALOFT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT TIMING OF NEXT SHORTWAVE IS UNCERTAIN.
OVERALL IT LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY REMAINING WELL TO THE SOUTH.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A TSTM POSSIBLE EARLY WED
EVENING...OTHERWISE A DRY NIGHT EXPECTED. THE COLD WILL BE SLOWLY
CROSSING THE REGION WED NIGHT...STALLING INVOF OF THE S COAST ON THU
AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW.  HOWEVER...LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES A RATHER DRY COLUMN THU WITH VERY LOW KI VALUES
AND SFC INSTABILITY IS ABOUT NIL. SO EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH
PT-MOSUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPS.

THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...
THERE IS STILL A LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS PERIOD...MAINLY WITH
RESPECT TO HOW FAR NORTH MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH GETS. COLD FRONT
MOVES TO THE S THU NIGHT AND WEAK HIGH PRES SETTLES INTO THE REGION
WHICH SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS FRI.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES RIDING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH WHICH WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. IT IS POSSIBLE
A FEW SHOWERS COULD FLIRT WITH THE IMMEDIATE S COAST AND
CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. AT THE VERY LEAST...EXPECT
MORE CLOUD COVER DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT ANY NORTH ADJUSTMENT COULD
BRING A STEADIER RAIN TO CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

SAT THROUGH TUE...
A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION SOMETIME SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
ASSOCD WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH...BUT EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING
OF NEXT IMPULSE WHICH WILL DETERMINE WHETHER ANY SHOWERS MOVE IN
NEXT TUE. TEMPS MODERATE SUN/MON BASED ON WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS NEXT TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF
SHOWER/T-STORM IN NW MA LATE TODAY. SEA BREEZES CONTINUE AT
COASTLINES.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THIS EVENING. MAY SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE AT SOME LOCATIONS...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR
THIS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. MAY ALSO SEE AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION IS THE
LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD TSRA. RISK FOR A FEW
STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
IN SHRA/TSRA.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WED NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPING...OTHERWISE VFR.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRI THROUGH SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. BUT STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A SHOWER RISK ALONG THE S COAST AND
CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE
TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND AND
BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.  THESE MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED AS WE MOVE INTO
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WED NIGHT...PREFRONTAL SW GUSTS TO 20 KT WITH SCA SEAS OVER
THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

THU...LIGHT SW WINDS...BUT LINGERING SOUTHERLY SWELL YIELDING SCA
SEAS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

FRI THROUGH SUN...HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS LEADS TO A PERIOD OF
MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 301954
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
354 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST INTO THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY
AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACK TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AT THIS
TIME.  WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS TRACK THROUGH THIS AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AS LARGER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
NEW YORK STATE AND INTO VERMONT.  NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER WITH
THIS AREA OF SHOWERS.  ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...WE ARE STARTING
TO SEE SOME DIURNAL CU POP UP.  TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE
COASTLINES WHERE SEABREEZES HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
70S.

TONIGHT...DIURNAL CU WILL DIMINISH AS SURFACE HEATING IS LOST.  DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN TOWARDS DAWN.  OVERNIGHT...INCREASED HUMIDITY
/DEWPOINTS/ WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL
APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE SOME SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.  WHILE SURFACE INSTABILITY IS LACKING DURING THIS TIME...
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR SOME
SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDER WITHIN THE BROADER AREA OF SHOWERS.
WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION WITH THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS
OCCURRING...MODELS DO SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON THE 09-12Z TIME
FRAME.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2.0 INCHES WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON.  COUPLED WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...THIS IS A
RECIPE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  A
QUICK INCH OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR IS NOT UNREASONABLE.  THIS
COULD RESULT IN POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN FLOODING.  THE BENEFIT OF
THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS STORMS SHOULD MOVE ALONG AT A FAIRLY
GOOD SPEED.  THIS WILL REDUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODING SOMEWHAT.
MAIN FLOODING THREAT WILL BE WITH ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS.

LATER INTO THE MORNING WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT TURNS MORE TO SEVERE
WEATHER AND POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN.  AS THIS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...
THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL WILL INCITE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THIS INCREASES THE INSTABILITY TOWARDS THE SURFACE TO GO ALONG WITH
THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY.  THIS IS EVIDENT IN SBCAPES FORECAST OVER
1000 J/KG.  A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET HAS PROVIDED PLENTY OF SHEAR...0-
6 KM VALUES ARE 30-50KTS AND 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES ARE OVER 100
M2/S2.

THE MAIN QUESTION SURROUNDING THIS FORECAST IS WHETHER THE
INSTABILITY INCREASES BEFORE THE SHEAR DIMINISHES IN THE AFTERNOON.
IF EVERYTHING LINES UP...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY.  DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
OF THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION /EXPECTED TO
BE EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT THIS TIME/ AND THE HELICITY
VALUES...THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM THU THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT
  LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT

OVERVIEW...
EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS WITH RATHER AMPLIFIED PATTERN FOR EARLY JULY
WITH RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC
NORTHWARD TO GREENLAND WHICH RESULTS IN TROF FROM GT LAKES INTO NEW
ENG LIFTING TO THE NORTH BY FRI. HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH W CANADA WILL SERVE TO DEAMPLIFY THE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND
WITH WEAK POLAR JET SETTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN CONUS. WEAK
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW MAY BRING A WEAK MOISTURE STARVED
COLD FRONT ON SAT.  THEN SOME RIDGING ALOFT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT TIMING OF NEXT SHORTWAVE IS UNCERTAIN.
OVERALL IT LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY REMAINING WELL TO THE SOUTH.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A TSTM POSSIBLE EARLY WED
EVENING...OTHERWISE A DRY NIGHT EXPECTED. THE COLD WILL BE SLOWLY
CROSSING THE REGION WED NIGHT...STALLING INVOF OF THE S COAST ON THU
AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW.  HOWEVER...LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES A RATHER DRY COLUMN THU WITH VERY LOW KI VALUES
AND SFC INSTABILITY IS ABOUT NIL. SO EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH
PT-MOSUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPS.

THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...
THERE IS STILL A LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS PERIOD...MAINLY WITH
RESPECT TO HOW FAR NORTH MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH GETS. COLD FRONT
MOVES TO THE S THU NIGHT AND WEAK HIGH PRES SETTLES INTO THE REGION
WHICH SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS FRI.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES RIDING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH WHICH WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. IT IS POSSIBLE
A FEW SHOWERS COULD FLIRT WITH THE IMMEDIATE S COAST AND
CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. AT THE VERY LEAST...EXPECT
MORE CLOUD COVER DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT ANY NORTH ADJUSTMENT COULD
BRING A STEADIER RAIN TO CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

SAT THROUGH TUE...
A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION SOMETIME SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
ASSOCD WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH...BUT EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING
OF NEXT IMPULSE WHICH WILL DETERMINE WHETHER ANY SHOWERS MOVE IN
NEXT TUE. TEMPS MODERATE SUN/MON BASED ON WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS NEXT TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF
SHOWER/T-STORM IN NW MA LATE TODAY. SEA BREEZES CONTINUE AT
COASTLINES.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THIS EVENING. MAY SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE AT SOME LOCATIONS...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR
THIS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. MAY ALSO SEE AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION IS THE
LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD TSRA. RISK FOR A FEW
STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
IN SHRA/TSRA.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WED NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPING...OTHERWISE VFR.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRI THROUGH SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. BUT STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A SHOWER RISK ALONG THE S COAST AND
CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE
TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND AND
BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.  THESE MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED AS WE MOVE INTO
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WED NIGHT...PREFRONTAL SW GUSTS TO 20 KT WITH SCA SEAS OVER
THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

THU...LIGHT SW WINDS...BUT LINGERING SOUTHERLY SWELL YIELDING SCA
SEAS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

FRI THROUGH SUN...HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS LEADS TO A PERIOD OF
MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 301954
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
354 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST INTO THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY
AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACK TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AT THIS
TIME.  WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS TRACK THROUGH THIS AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AS LARGER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
NEW YORK STATE AND INTO VERMONT.  NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER WITH
THIS AREA OF SHOWERS.  ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...WE ARE STARTING
TO SEE SOME DIURNAL CU POP UP.  TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE
COASTLINES WHERE SEABREEZES HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
70S.

TONIGHT...DIURNAL CU WILL DIMINISH AS SURFACE HEATING IS LOST.  DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN TOWARDS DAWN.  OVERNIGHT...INCREASED HUMIDITY
/DEWPOINTS/ WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL
APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE SOME SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.  WHILE SURFACE INSTABILITY IS LACKING DURING THIS TIME...
THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR SOME
SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDER WITHIN THE BROADER AREA OF SHOWERS.
WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION WITH THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS
OCCURRING...MODELS DO SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON THE 09-12Z TIME
FRAME.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2.0 INCHES WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON.  COUPLED WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...THIS IS A
RECIPE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  A
QUICK INCH OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR IS NOT UNREASONABLE.  THIS
COULD RESULT IN POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN FLOODING.  THE BENEFIT OF
THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS STORMS SHOULD MOVE ALONG AT A FAIRLY
GOOD SPEED.  THIS WILL REDUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODING SOMEWHAT.
MAIN FLOODING THREAT WILL BE WITH ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS.

LATER INTO THE MORNING WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT TURNS MORE TO SEVERE
WEATHER AND POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN.  AS THIS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...
THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL WILL INCITE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THIS INCREASES THE INSTABILITY TOWARDS THE SURFACE TO GO ALONG WITH
THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY.  THIS IS EVIDENT IN SBCAPES FORECAST OVER
1000 J/KG.  A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET HAS PROVIDED PLENTY OF SHEAR...0-
6 KM VALUES ARE 30-50KTS AND 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES ARE OVER 100
M2/S2.

THE MAIN QUESTION SURROUNDING THIS FORECAST IS WHETHER THE
INSTABILITY INCREASES BEFORE THE SHEAR DIMINISHES IN THE AFTERNOON.
IF EVERYTHING LINES UP...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY.  DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
OF THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION /EXPECTED TO
BE EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT THIS TIME/ AND THE HELICITY
VALUES...THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM THU THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT
  LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT

OVERVIEW...
EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS WITH RATHER AMPLIFIED PATTERN FOR EARLY JULY
WITH RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC
NORTHWARD TO GREENLAND WHICH RESULTS IN TROF FROM GT LAKES INTO NEW
ENG LIFTING TO THE NORTH BY FRI. HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH W CANADA WILL SERVE TO DEAMPLIFY THE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND
WITH WEAK POLAR JET SETTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN CONUS. WEAK
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW MAY BRING A WEAK MOISTURE STARVED
COLD FRONT ON SAT.  THEN SOME RIDGING ALOFT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT TIMING OF NEXT SHORTWAVE IS UNCERTAIN.
OVERALL IT LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY REMAINING WELL TO THE SOUTH.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A TSTM POSSIBLE EARLY WED
EVENING...OTHERWISE A DRY NIGHT EXPECTED. THE COLD WILL BE SLOWLY
CROSSING THE REGION WED NIGHT...STALLING INVOF OF THE S COAST ON THU
AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW.  HOWEVER...LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES A RATHER DRY COLUMN THU WITH VERY LOW KI VALUES
AND SFC INSTABILITY IS ABOUT NIL. SO EXPECTING A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH
PT-MOSUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPS.

THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...
THERE IS STILL A LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS PERIOD...MAINLY WITH
RESPECT TO HOW FAR NORTH MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH GETS. COLD FRONT
MOVES TO THE S THU NIGHT AND WEAK HIGH PRES SETTLES INTO THE REGION
WHICH SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS FRI.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES RIDING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH WHICH WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. IT IS POSSIBLE
A FEW SHOWERS COULD FLIRT WITH THE IMMEDIATE S COAST AND
CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. AT THE VERY LEAST...EXPECT
MORE CLOUD COVER DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT ANY NORTH ADJUSTMENT COULD
BRING A STEADIER RAIN TO CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

SAT THROUGH TUE...
A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION SOMETIME SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
ASSOCD WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH...BUT EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING
OF NEXT IMPULSE WHICH WILL DETERMINE WHETHER ANY SHOWERS MOVE IN
NEXT TUE. TEMPS MODERATE SUN/MON BASED ON WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS NEXT TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF
SHOWER/T-STORM IN NW MA LATE TODAY. SEA BREEZES CONTINUE AT
COASTLINES.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THIS EVENING. MAY SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE AT SOME LOCATIONS...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR
THIS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. MAY ALSO SEE AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION IS THE
LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD TSRA. RISK FOR A FEW
STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
IN SHRA/TSRA.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WED NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPING...OTHERWISE VFR.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRI THROUGH SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. BUT STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A SHOWER RISK ALONG THE S COAST AND
CAPE/ISLANDS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE
TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND AND
BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS.  THESE MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED AS WE MOVE INTO
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WED NIGHT...PREFRONTAL SW GUSTS TO 20 KT WITH SCA SEAS OVER
THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

THU...LIGHT SW WINDS...BUT LINGERING SOUTHERLY SWELL YIELDING SCA
SEAS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

FRI THROUGH SUN...HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS LEADS TO A PERIOD OF
MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 301734
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
134 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS VERY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE SOUTH
COAST INTO THURSDAY...WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. THIS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE COAST FRIDAY...WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
130 PM UPDATE... ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MAINLY TO BRING
TEMPS/DWPTS UP TO CURRENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A PARTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION.
SEABREEZES WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ISSUE AT HAND WILL BE TO SEE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME...THE GREATEST RISK APPEARS TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
OTHER THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...DRY
WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TOWARD
DAYBREAK. THE TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT THE CONSENSUS
INDICATES AN INCREASING RISK FOR RAINFALL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
MOST OF THE AREA LIKELY SEEING A RISK FOR SHOWERS BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z.

LOTS OF SHEAR PROJECTED TO BE IN PLACE. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. THE CURRENT TIMING IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
UNFAVORED...BUT NOT WITHOUT PRECEDENT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES
GENERATE CAPE OF 700-1500 J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG
SHEAR ALREADY IN PLACE...WE STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
SHOULD ENOUGH INSTABILITY GENERATE FAST ENOUGH.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS IF A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CAN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE
TO DRY THE COLUMN LATE IN THE DAY...SO THERE IS LIMITED WINDOW
FOR A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION. THE DEEPER LAYER SHEAR IS
PROJECTED TO ALSO WEAKEN IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THU
* LOOKING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE FRI THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY
  WEEKEND WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING SOMEWHAT.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
PERSISTENT E PACIFIC BLOCK REMAINS IN PLAY THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF NRN
CANADA...SHIFTING THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES
NE...LEADING TO MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK. THERE IS ACTUALLY REASONABLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN 30.00Z
MODEL GUIDANCE. WHILE THIS ZONAL FLOW DOES SUGGEST LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY SPECIFIC FEATURE...IT ALSO SUGGESTS
THAT ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE WEAKENED AND MAINLY OPEN.
GIVEN THE GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES A BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL RUNS WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST SHOULD WORK WELL FOR THIS UPDATE.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY CROSSING THE REGION WED NIGHT...STALLING
INVOF OF THE S COAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER STEERING
FLOW. COLUMN STILL HAS ENOUGH MOISTURE...SHEAR AND MODERATE MID
LVL LAPSE RATES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST
SOME RISK OF TS/SHRA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER...WITH
THE LACK OF A SFC CONNECTION...WILL LIKELY SEE A DRYING TREND
TOWARD THE MORNING HOURS. BY DAYLIGHT ON THU...A POCKET OF STEEP
UPPER LVL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...AND WITH THE FRONT STALLING
NEARBY COMBINING WITH ONE LAST UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE ROTATING
THROUGH TO YIELD YET ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL -SHRA AND POSSIBLY A
TS. AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER NOTED...SHEAR REMAINS ELEVATED AS WELL.

FRI...
WITH UPPER LVL ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE...A WEAK RIDGE AND ATTENDANT
HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...FORCING THE WEAK FRONT
FURTHER TO THE S. MAINLY DRY DAY AS AVAILABLE BUFKIT DATA SHOWS A
DRY COLUMN AND SUBSIDENCE. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN H85 TEMPS SUGGEST
HIGHS ARE SLIGHTLY ON THE WARMER INCREASED SKY COVER A BIT
IN THE W AS WELL ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEEPENING WAVE WELL W OF
THE REGION. SIDE OF NORMAL AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINES WHERE SEA BREEZE WILL DOMINATE.

THE WEEKEND...
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEGINS TO WAIN HERE MAINLY DUE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WARM WAVE TO THE S OF THE UPPER LVL RIDGE
WHICH COULD GENERATE ENOUGH LIFT FOR -SHRA DEVELOPMENT SAT OR SUN.
HOWEVER...AT THE SAME TIME...THE BERMUDA LOOKS TO GAIN
STRENGTH...AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE UPSTREAM OF A STRONGER WAVE IN
CENTRAL CANADA. THEREFORE...IT/S A BATTLE BETWEEN THIS RIDGING AND
THE WEAK WAVE TO THE S. GIVEN THE ROBUST NATURE OF THE RIDGE AND
AMPLIFICATION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
DRIER...HIGH PRES SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. BUT THERE IS ROOM FOR A
SHOWER SHOULD THE WEAK WAVE TO THE S SHIFT A BIT FURTHER N WITHIN
THE WEAK FLOW REGIME TO THE S OF THE RIDGE. BUILDING RIDGE AND
INCREASING MID LVL TEMPS SUGGEST TEMPS MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE ROBUST SHORTWAVE TO THE W ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL BE MOVING E
AND COULD LEAD TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE FINAL AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF
SHOWER/T-STORM IN NW MA LATE TODAY. SEA BREEZES CONTINUE AT
COASTLINES.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THIS EVENING. MAY SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE AT SOME LOCATIONS...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR
THIS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. MAY ALSO SEE AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION IS THE
LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD TSRA. RISK FOR A FEW
STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
IN SHRA/TSRA.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MOSTLY VFR...BUT SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS.

FRI AND SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRES...BUT STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING A SHOWER RISK FRI-SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP TOWARD
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. VSBYS LIMITED IN
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS WEAKENING AND SHIFT TO THE W. LINGERING SWELL REMAINS ACROSS
THE WATERS...WITH WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING 5-7 FT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN FOR THIS SWELL. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LINGER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

FRI AND SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS LEADS TO A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET
BOATING WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY/RLG
MARINE...BELK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 301734
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
134 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS VERY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE SOUTH
COAST INTO THURSDAY...WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. THIS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE COAST FRIDAY...WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
130 PM UPDATE... ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MAINLY TO BRING
TEMPS/DWPTS UP TO CURRENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A PARTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION.
SEABREEZES WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ISSUE AT HAND WILL BE TO SEE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME...THE GREATEST RISK APPEARS TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
OTHER THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...DRY
WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TOWARD
DAYBREAK. THE TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT THE CONSENSUS
INDICATES AN INCREASING RISK FOR RAINFALL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
MOST OF THE AREA LIKELY SEEING A RISK FOR SHOWERS BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z.

LOTS OF SHEAR PROJECTED TO BE IN PLACE. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. THE CURRENT TIMING IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
UNFAVORED...BUT NOT WITHOUT PRECEDENT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES
GENERATE CAPE OF 700-1500 J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG
SHEAR ALREADY IN PLACE...WE STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
SHOULD ENOUGH INSTABILITY GENERATE FAST ENOUGH.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS IF A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CAN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE
TO DRY THE COLUMN LATE IN THE DAY...SO THERE IS LIMITED WINDOW
FOR A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION. THE DEEPER LAYER SHEAR IS
PROJECTED TO ALSO WEAKEN IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THU
* LOOKING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE FRI THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY
  WEEKEND WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING SOMEWHAT.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
PERSISTENT E PACIFIC BLOCK REMAINS IN PLAY THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF NRN
CANADA...SHIFTING THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES
NE...LEADING TO MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK. THERE IS ACTUALLY REASONABLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN 30.00Z
MODEL GUIDANCE. WHILE THIS ZONAL FLOW DOES SUGGEST LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY SPECIFIC FEATURE...IT ALSO SUGGESTS
THAT ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE WEAKENED AND MAINLY OPEN.
GIVEN THE GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES A BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL RUNS WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST SHOULD WORK WELL FOR THIS UPDATE.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY CROSSING THE REGION WED NIGHT...STALLING
INVOF OF THE S COAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER STEERING
FLOW. COLUMN STILL HAS ENOUGH MOISTURE...SHEAR AND MODERATE MID
LVL LAPSE RATES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST
SOME RISK OF TS/SHRA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER...WITH
THE LACK OF A SFC CONNECTION...WILL LIKELY SEE A DRYING TREND
TOWARD THE MORNING HOURS. BY DAYLIGHT ON THU...A POCKET OF STEEP
UPPER LVL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...AND WITH THE FRONT STALLING
NEARBY COMBINING WITH ONE LAST UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE ROTATING
THROUGH TO YIELD YET ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL -SHRA AND POSSIBLY A
TS. AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER NOTED...SHEAR REMAINS ELEVATED AS WELL.

FRI...
WITH UPPER LVL ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE...A WEAK RIDGE AND ATTENDANT
HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...FORCING THE WEAK FRONT
FURTHER TO THE S. MAINLY DRY DAY AS AVAILABLE BUFKIT DATA SHOWS A
DRY COLUMN AND SUBSIDENCE. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN H85 TEMPS SUGGEST
HIGHS ARE SLIGHTLY ON THE WARMER INCREASED SKY COVER A BIT
IN THE W AS WELL ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEEPENING WAVE WELL W OF
THE REGION. SIDE OF NORMAL AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINES WHERE SEA BREEZE WILL DOMINATE.

THE WEEKEND...
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEGINS TO WAIN HERE MAINLY DUE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WARM WAVE TO THE S OF THE UPPER LVL RIDGE
WHICH COULD GENERATE ENOUGH LIFT FOR -SHRA DEVELOPMENT SAT OR SUN.
HOWEVER...AT THE SAME TIME...THE BERMUDA LOOKS TO GAIN
STRENGTH...AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE UPSTREAM OF A STRONGER WAVE IN
CENTRAL CANADA. THEREFORE...IT/S A BATTLE BETWEEN THIS RIDGING AND
THE WEAK WAVE TO THE S. GIVEN THE ROBUST NATURE OF THE RIDGE AND
AMPLIFICATION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
DRIER...HIGH PRES SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. BUT THERE IS ROOM FOR A
SHOWER SHOULD THE WEAK WAVE TO THE S SHIFT A BIT FURTHER N WITHIN
THE WEAK FLOW REGIME TO THE S OF THE RIDGE. BUILDING RIDGE AND
INCREASING MID LVL TEMPS SUGGEST TEMPS MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE ROBUST SHORTWAVE TO THE W ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL BE MOVING E
AND COULD LEAD TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE FINAL AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF
SHOWER/T-STORM IN NW MA LATE TODAY. SEA BREEZES CONTINUE AT
COASTLINES.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THIS EVENING. MAY SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE AT SOME LOCATIONS...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR
THIS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. MAY ALSO SEE AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION IS THE
LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD TSRA. RISK FOR A FEW
STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
IN SHRA/TSRA.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MOSTLY VFR...BUT SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS.

FRI AND SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRES...BUT STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING A SHOWER RISK FRI-SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP TOWARD
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. VSBYS LIMITED IN
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS WEAKENING AND SHIFT TO THE W. LINGERING SWELL REMAINS ACROSS
THE WATERS...WITH WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING 5-7 FT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN FOR THIS SWELL. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LINGER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

FRI AND SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS LEADS TO A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET
BOATING WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY/RLG
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 301734
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
134 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS VERY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE SOUTH
COAST INTO THURSDAY...WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. THIS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE COAST FRIDAY...WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
130 PM UPDATE... ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MAINLY TO BRING
TEMPS/DWPTS UP TO CURRENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A PARTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION.
SEABREEZES WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ISSUE AT HAND WILL BE TO SEE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME...THE GREATEST RISK APPEARS TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
OTHER THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...DRY
WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TOWARD
DAYBREAK. THE TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT THE CONSENSUS
INDICATES AN INCREASING RISK FOR RAINFALL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
MOST OF THE AREA LIKELY SEEING A RISK FOR SHOWERS BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z.

LOTS OF SHEAR PROJECTED TO BE IN PLACE. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. THE CURRENT TIMING IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
UNFAVORED...BUT NOT WITHOUT PRECEDENT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES
GENERATE CAPE OF 700-1500 J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG
SHEAR ALREADY IN PLACE...WE STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
SHOULD ENOUGH INSTABILITY GENERATE FAST ENOUGH.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS IF A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CAN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE
TO DRY THE COLUMN LATE IN THE DAY...SO THERE IS LIMITED WINDOW
FOR A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION. THE DEEPER LAYER SHEAR IS
PROJECTED TO ALSO WEAKEN IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THU
* LOOKING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE FRI THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY
  WEEKEND WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING SOMEWHAT.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
PERSISTENT E PACIFIC BLOCK REMAINS IN PLAY THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF NRN
CANADA...SHIFTING THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES
NE...LEADING TO MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK. THERE IS ACTUALLY REASONABLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN 30.00Z
MODEL GUIDANCE. WHILE THIS ZONAL FLOW DOES SUGGEST LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY SPECIFIC FEATURE...IT ALSO SUGGESTS
THAT ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE WEAKENED AND MAINLY OPEN.
GIVEN THE GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES A BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL RUNS WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST SHOULD WORK WELL FOR THIS UPDATE.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY CROSSING THE REGION WED NIGHT...STALLING
INVOF OF THE S COAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER STEERING
FLOW. COLUMN STILL HAS ENOUGH MOISTURE...SHEAR AND MODERATE MID
LVL LAPSE RATES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST
SOME RISK OF TS/SHRA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER...WITH
THE LACK OF A SFC CONNECTION...WILL LIKELY SEE A DRYING TREND
TOWARD THE MORNING HOURS. BY DAYLIGHT ON THU...A POCKET OF STEEP
UPPER LVL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...AND WITH THE FRONT STALLING
NEARBY COMBINING WITH ONE LAST UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE ROTATING
THROUGH TO YIELD YET ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL -SHRA AND POSSIBLY A
TS. AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER NOTED...SHEAR REMAINS ELEVATED AS WELL.

FRI...
WITH UPPER LVL ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE...A WEAK RIDGE AND ATTENDANT
HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...FORCING THE WEAK FRONT
FURTHER TO THE S. MAINLY DRY DAY AS AVAILABLE BUFKIT DATA SHOWS A
DRY COLUMN AND SUBSIDENCE. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN H85 TEMPS SUGGEST
HIGHS ARE SLIGHTLY ON THE WARMER INCREASED SKY COVER A BIT
IN THE W AS WELL ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEEPENING WAVE WELL W OF
THE REGION. SIDE OF NORMAL AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINES WHERE SEA BREEZE WILL DOMINATE.

THE WEEKEND...
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEGINS TO WAIN HERE MAINLY DUE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WARM WAVE TO THE S OF THE UPPER LVL RIDGE
WHICH COULD GENERATE ENOUGH LIFT FOR -SHRA DEVELOPMENT SAT OR SUN.
HOWEVER...AT THE SAME TIME...THE BERMUDA LOOKS TO GAIN
STRENGTH...AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE UPSTREAM OF A STRONGER WAVE IN
CENTRAL CANADA. THEREFORE...IT/S A BATTLE BETWEEN THIS RIDGING AND
THE WEAK WAVE TO THE S. GIVEN THE ROBUST NATURE OF THE RIDGE AND
AMPLIFICATION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
DRIER...HIGH PRES SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. BUT THERE IS ROOM FOR A
SHOWER SHOULD THE WEAK WAVE TO THE S SHIFT A BIT FURTHER N WITHIN
THE WEAK FLOW REGIME TO THE S OF THE RIDGE. BUILDING RIDGE AND
INCREASING MID LVL TEMPS SUGGEST TEMPS MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE ROBUST SHORTWAVE TO THE W ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL BE MOVING E
AND COULD LEAD TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE FINAL AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF
SHOWER/T-STORM IN NW MA LATE TODAY. SEA BREEZES CONTINUE AT
COASTLINES.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THIS EVENING. MAY SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE AT SOME LOCATIONS...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR
THIS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. MAY ALSO SEE AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION IS THE
LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD TSRA. RISK FOR A FEW
STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
IN SHRA/TSRA.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MOSTLY VFR...BUT SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS.

FRI AND SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRES...BUT STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING A SHOWER RISK FRI-SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP TOWARD
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. VSBYS LIMITED IN
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS WEAKENING AND SHIFT TO THE W. LINGERING SWELL REMAINS ACROSS
THE WATERS...WITH WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING 5-7 FT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN FOR THIS SWELL. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LINGER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

FRI AND SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS LEADS TO A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET
BOATING WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY/RLG
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 301734
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
134 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS VERY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE SOUTH
COAST INTO THURSDAY...WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. THIS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE COAST FRIDAY...WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
130 PM UPDATE... ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MAINLY TO BRING
TEMPS/DWPTS UP TO CURRENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A PARTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION.
SEABREEZES WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ISSUE AT HAND WILL BE TO SEE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME...THE GREATEST RISK APPEARS TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
OTHER THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...DRY
WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TOWARD
DAYBREAK. THE TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT THE CONSENSUS
INDICATES AN INCREASING RISK FOR RAINFALL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
MOST OF THE AREA LIKELY SEEING A RISK FOR SHOWERS BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z.

LOTS OF SHEAR PROJECTED TO BE IN PLACE. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. THE CURRENT TIMING IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
UNFAVORED...BUT NOT WITHOUT PRECEDENT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES
GENERATE CAPE OF 700-1500 J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG
SHEAR ALREADY IN PLACE...WE STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
SHOULD ENOUGH INSTABILITY GENERATE FAST ENOUGH.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS IF A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CAN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE
TO DRY THE COLUMN LATE IN THE DAY...SO THERE IS LIMITED WINDOW
FOR A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION. THE DEEPER LAYER SHEAR IS
PROJECTED TO ALSO WEAKEN IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THU
* LOOKING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE FRI THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY
  WEEKEND WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING SOMEWHAT.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
PERSISTENT E PACIFIC BLOCK REMAINS IN PLAY THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF NRN
CANADA...SHIFTING THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES
NE...LEADING TO MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK. THERE IS ACTUALLY REASONABLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN 30.00Z
MODEL GUIDANCE. WHILE THIS ZONAL FLOW DOES SUGGEST LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY SPECIFIC FEATURE...IT ALSO SUGGESTS
THAT ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE WEAKENED AND MAINLY OPEN.
GIVEN THE GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES A BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL RUNS WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST SHOULD WORK WELL FOR THIS UPDATE.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY CROSSING THE REGION WED NIGHT...STALLING
INVOF OF THE S COAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER STEERING
FLOW. COLUMN STILL HAS ENOUGH MOISTURE...SHEAR AND MODERATE MID
LVL LAPSE RATES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST
SOME RISK OF TS/SHRA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER...WITH
THE LACK OF A SFC CONNECTION...WILL LIKELY SEE A DRYING TREND
TOWARD THE MORNING HOURS. BY DAYLIGHT ON THU...A POCKET OF STEEP
UPPER LVL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...AND WITH THE FRONT STALLING
NEARBY COMBINING WITH ONE LAST UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE ROTATING
THROUGH TO YIELD YET ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL -SHRA AND POSSIBLY A
TS. AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER NOTED...SHEAR REMAINS ELEVATED AS WELL.

FRI...
WITH UPPER LVL ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE...A WEAK RIDGE AND ATTENDANT
HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...FORCING THE WEAK FRONT
FURTHER TO THE S. MAINLY DRY DAY AS AVAILABLE BUFKIT DATA SHOWS A
DRY COLUMN AND SUBSIDENCE. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN H85 TEMPS SUGGEST
HIGHS ARE SLIGHTLY ON THE WARMER INCREASED SKY COVER A BIT
IN THE W AS WELL ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEEPENING WAVE WELL W OF
THE REGION. SIDE OF NORMAL AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINES WHERE SEA BREEZE WILL DOMINATE.

THE WEEKEND...
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEGINS TO WAIN HERE MAINLY DUE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WARM WAVE TO THE S OF THE UPPER LVL RIDGE
WHICH COULD GENERATE ENOUGH LIFT FOR -SHRA DEVELOPMENT SAT OR SUN.
HOWEVER...AT THE SAME TIME...THE BERMUDA LOOKS TO GAIN
STRENGTH...AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE UPSTREAM OF A STRONGER WAVE IN
CENTRAL CANADA. THEREFORE...IT/S A BATTLE BETWEEN THIS RIDGING AND
THE WEAK WAVE TO THE S. GIVEN THE ROBUST NATURE OF THE RIDGE AND
AMPLIFICATION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
DRIER...HIGH PRES SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. BUT THERE IS ROOM FOR A
SHOWER SHOULD THE WEAK WAVE TO THE S SHIFT A BIT FURTHER N WITHIN
THE WEAK FLOW REGIME TO THE S OF THE RIDGE. BUILDING RIDGE AND
INCREASING MID LVL TEMPS SUGGEST TEMPS MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE ROBUST SHORTWAVE TO THE W ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL BE MOVING E
AND COULD LEAD TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE FINAL AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF
SHOWER/T-STORM IN NW MA LATE TODAY. SEA BREEZES CONTINUE AT
COASTLINES.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THIS EVENING. MAY SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE AT SOME LOCATIONS...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR
THIS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. MAY ALSO SEE AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION IS THE
LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD TSRA. RISK FOR A FEW
STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
IN SHRA/TSRA.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MOSTLY VFR...BUT SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS.

FRI AND SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRES...BUT STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING A SHOWER RISK FRI-SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP TOWARD
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. VSBYS LIMITED IN
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS WEAKENING AND SHIFT TO THE W. LINGERING SWELL REMAINS ACROSS
THE WATERS...WITH WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING 5-7 FT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN FOR THIS SWELL. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LINGER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

FRI AND SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS LEADS TO A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET
BOATING WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY/RLG
MARINE...BELK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 301402
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1002 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS VERY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE SOUTH
COAST INTO THURSDAY...WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. THIS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE COAST FRIDAY...WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE... ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THIS MORNING. MAINLY TO
BRING TEMPS/DWPTS UP TO CURRENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A PARTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION.
SEABREEZES WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ISSUE AT HAND WILL BE TO SEE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME...THE GREATEST RISK APPEARS TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
OTHER THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...DRY
WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TOWARD
DAYBREAK. THE TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT THE CONSENSUS
INDICATES AN INCREASING RISK FOR RAINFALL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
MOST OF THE AREA LIKELY SEEING A RISK FOR SHOWERS BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z.

LOTS OF SHEAR PROJECTED TO BE IN PLACE. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. THE CURRENT TIMING IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
UNFAVORED...BUT NOT WITHOUT PRECEDENT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES
GENERATE CAPE OF 700-1500 J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG
SHEAR ALREADY IN PLACE...WE STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
SHOULD ENOUGH INSTABILITY GENERATE FAST ENOUGH.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS IF A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CAN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE
TO DRY THE COLUMN LATE IN THE DAY...SO THERE IS LIMITED WINDOW
FOR A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION. THE DEEPER LAYER SHEAR IS
PROJECTED TO ALSO WEAKEN IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THU
* LOOKING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE FRI THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY
  WEEKEND WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING SOMEWHAT.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
PERSISTENT E PACIFIC BLOCK REMAINS IN PLAY THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF NRN
CANADA...SHIFTING THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES
NE...LEADING TO MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK. THERE IS ACTUALLY REASONABLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN 30.00Z
MODEL GUIDANCE. WHILE THIS ZONAL FLOW DOES SUGGEST LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY SPECIFIC FEATURE...IT ALSO SUGGESTS
THAT ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE WEAKENED AND MAINLY OPEN.
GIVEN THE GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES A BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL RUNS WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST SHOULD WORK WELL FOR THIS UPDATE.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY CROSSING THE REGION WED NIGHT...STALLING
INVOF OF THE S COAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER STEERING
FLOW. COLUMN STILL HAS ENOUGH MOISTURE...SHEAR AND MODERATE MID
LVL LAPSE RATES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST
SOME RISK OF TS/SHRA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER...WITH
THE LACK OF A SFC CONNECTION...WILL LIKELY SEE A DRYING TREND
TOWARD THE MORNING HOURS. BY DAYLIGHT ON THU...A POCKET OF STEEP
UPPER LVL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...AND WITH THE FRONT STALLING
NEARBY COMBINING WITH ONE LAST UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE ROTATING
THROUGH TO YIELD YET ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL -SHRA AND POSSIBLY A
TS. AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER NOTED...SHEAR REMAINS ELEVATED AS WELL.

FRI...
WITH UPPER LVL ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE...A WEAK RIDGE AND ATTENDANT
HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...FORCING THE WEAK FRONT
FURTHER TO THE S. MAINLY DRY DAY AS AVAILABLE BUFKIT DATA SHOWS A
DRY COLUMN AND SUBSIDENCE. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN H85 TEMPS SUGGEST
HIGHS ARE SLIGHTLY ON THE WARMER SIDE OF NORMAL AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINES WHERE SEA BREEZE WILL DOMINATE.

THE WEEKEND...
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEGINS TO WAIN HERE MAINLY DUE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WARM WAVE TO THE S OF THE UPPER LVL RIDGE
WHICH COULD GENERATE ENOUGH LIFT FOR -SHRA DEVELOPMENT SAT OR SUN.
HOWEVER...AT THE SAME TIME...THE BERMUDA LOOKS TO GAIN
STRENGTH...AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE UPSTREAM OF A STRONGER WAVE IN
CENTRAL CANADA. THEREFORE...IT/S A BATTLE BETWEEN THIS RIDGING AND
THE WEAK WAVE TO THE S. GIVEN THE ROBUST NATURE OF THE RIDGE AND
AMPLIFICATION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
DRIER...HIGH PRES SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. BUT THERE IS ROOM FOR A
SHOWER SHOULD THE WEAK WAVE TO THE S SHIFT A BIT FURTHER N WITHIN
THE WEAK FLOW REGIME TO THE S OF THE RIDGE. BUILDING RIDGE AND
INCREASING MID LVL TEMPS SUGGEST TEMPS MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE ROBUST SHORTWAVE TO THE W ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL BE MOVING E
AND COULD LEAD TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE FINAL AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...


TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF SHOWER/T-STORM IN NW MA LATE
TODAY.  SEA BREEZES LIKELY AT COASTLINES.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THIS EVENING. MAY SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE AT SOME LOCATIONS...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR
THIS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. MAY ALSO SEE AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION IS THE
LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
TSTMS. RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND
MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MOSTLY VFR...BUT SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS.

FRI AND SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRES...BUT STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING A SHOWER RISK FRI-SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP TOWARD
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. VSBYS LIMITED IN
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS WEAKENING AND SHIFT TO THE W. LINGERING SWELL REMAINS ACROSS
THE WATERS...WITH WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING 5-7 FT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN FOR THIS SWELL. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LINGER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

FRI AND SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS LEADS TO A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET
BOATING WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 301402
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1002 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS VERY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE SOUTH
COAST INTO THURSDAY...WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. THIS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE COAST FRIDAY...WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE... ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THIS MORNING. MAINLY TO
BRING TEMPS/DWPTS UP TO CURRENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A PARTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION.
SEABREEZES WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ISSUE AT HAND WILL BE TO SEE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME...THE GREATEST RISK APPEARS TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
OTHER THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...DRY
WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TOWARD
DAYBREAK. THE TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT THE CONSENSUS
INDICATES AN INCREASING RISK FOR RAINFALL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
MOST OF THE AREA LIKELY SEEING A RISK FOR SHOWERS BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z.

LOTS OF SHEAR PROJECTED TO BE IN PLACE. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. THE CURRENT TIMING IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
UNFAVORED...BUT NOT WITHOUT PRECEDENT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES
GENERATE CAPE OF 700-1500 J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG
SHEAR ALREADY IN PLACE...WE STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
SHOULD ENOUGH INSTABILITY GENERATE FAST ENOUGH.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS IF A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CAN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE
TO DRY THE COLUMN LATE IN THE DAY...SO THERE IS LIMITED WINDOW
FOR A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION. THE DEEPER LAYER SHEAR IS
PROJECTED TO ALSO WEAKEN IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THU
* LOOKING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE FRI THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY
  WEEKEND WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING SOMEWHAT.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
PERSISTENT E PACIFIC BLOCK REMAINS IN PLAY THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF NRN
CANADA...SHIFTING THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES
NE...LEADING TO MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK. THERE IS ACTUALLY REASONABLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN 30.00Z
MODEL GUIDANCE. WHILE THIS ZONAL FLOW DOES SUGGEST LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY SPECIFIC FEATURE...IT ALSO SUGGESTS
THAT ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE WEAKENED AND MAINLY OPEN.
GIVEN THE GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES A BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL RUNS WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST SHOULD WORK WELL FOR THIS UPDATE.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY CROSSING THE REGION WED NIGHT...STALLING
INVOF OF THE S COAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER STEERING
FLOW. COLUMN STILL HAS ENOUGH MOISTURE...SHEAR AND MODERATE MID
LVL LAPSE RATES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST
SOME RISK OF TS/SHRA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER...WITH
THE LACK OF A SFC CONNECTION...WILL LIKELY SEE A DRYING TREND
TOWARD THE MORNING HOURS. BY DAYLIGHT ON THU...A POCKET OF STEEP
UPPER LVL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...AND WITH THE FRONT STALLING
NEARBY COMBINING WITH ONE LAST UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE ROTATING
THROUGH TO YIELD YET ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL -SHRA AND POSSIBLY A
TS. AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER NOTED...SHEAR REMAINS ELEVATED AS WELL.

FRI...
WITH UPPER LVL ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE...A WEAK RIDGE AND ATTENDANT
HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...FORCING THE WEAK FRONT
FURTHER TO THE S. MAINLY DRY DAY AS AVAILABLE BUFKIT DATA SHOWS A
DRY COLUMN AND SUBSIDENCE. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN H85 TEMPS SUGGEST
HIGHS ARE SLIGHTLY ON THE WARMER SIDE OF NORMAL AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINES WHERE SEA BREEZE WILL DOMINATE.

THE WEEKEND...
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEGINS TO WAIN HERE MAINLY DUE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WARM WAVE TO THE S OF THE UPPER LVL RIDGE
WHICH COULD GENERATE ENOUGH LIFT FOR -SHRA DEVELOPMENT SAT OR SUN.
HOWEVER...AT THE SAME TIME...THE BERMUDA LOOKS TO GAIN
STRENGTH...AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE UPSTREAM OF A STRONGER WAVE IN
CENTRAL CANADA. THEREFORE...IT/S A BATTLE BETWEEN THIS RIDGING AND
THE WEAK WAVE TO THE S. GIVEN THE ROBUST NATURE OF THE RIDGE AND
AMPLIFICATION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
DRIER...HIGH PRES SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. BUT THERE IS ROOM FOR A
SHOWER SHOULD THE WEAK WAVE TO THE S SHIFT A BIT FURTHER N WITHIN
THE WEAK FLOW REGIME TO THE S OF THE RIDGE. BUILDING RIDGE AND
INCREASING MID LVL TEMPS SUGGEST TEMPS MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE ROBUST SHORTWAVE TO THE W ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL BE MOVING E
AND COULD LEAD TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE FINAL AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...


TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF SHOWER/T-STORM IN NW MA LATE
TODAY.  SEA BREEZES LIKELY AT COASTLINES.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THIS EVENING. MAY SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE AT SOME LOCATIONS...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR
THIS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. MAY ALSO SEE AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION IS THE
LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
TSTMS. RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND
MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MOSTLY VFR...BUT SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS.

FRI AND SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRES...BUT STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING A SHOWER RISK FRI-SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP TOWARD
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. VSBYS LIMITED IN
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS WEAKENING AND SHIFT TO THE W. LINGERING SWELL REMAINS ACROSS
THE WATERS...WITH WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING 5-7 FT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN FOR THIS SWELL. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LINGER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

FRI AND SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS LEADS TO A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET
BOATING WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 301120
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
720 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS VERY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE SOUTH
COAST INTO THURSDAY...WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. THIS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE COAST FRIDAY...WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7AM UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THIS MORNING. MAINLY TO BRING TEMPS/DWPTS
UP TO CURRENT TRENDS. INCREASED SKY COVER A BIT IN THE W AS WELL
ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEEPENING WAVE WELL W OF THE REGION.
OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A PARTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION.
SEABREEZES WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ISSUE AT HAND WILL BE TO SEE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME...THE GREATEST RISK APPEARS TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
OTHER THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...DRY
WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TOWARD
DAYBREAK. THE TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT THE CONSENSUS
INDICATES AN INCREASING RISK FOR RAINFALL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
MOST OF THE AREA LIKELY SEEING A RISK FOR SHOWERS BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z.

LOTS OF SHEAR PROJECTED TO BE IN PLACE. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. THE CURRENT TIMING IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
UNFAVORED...BUT NOT WITHOUT PRECEDENT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES
GENERATE CAPE OF 700-1500 J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG
SHEAR ALREADY IN PLACE...WE STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
SHOULD ENOUGH INSTABILITY GENERATE FAST ENOUGH.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS IF A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CAN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE
TO DRY THE COLUMN LATE IN THE DAY...SO THERE IS LIMITED WINDOW
FOR A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION. THE DEEPER LAYER SHEAR IS
PROJECTED TO ALSO WEAKEN INT HE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THU
* LOOKING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE FRI THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY
  WEEKEND WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING SOMEWHAT.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
PERSISTENT E PACIFIC BLOCK REMAINS IN PLAY THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
HOWEVER. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF NRN
CANADA...SHIFTING THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES
NE...LEADING TO MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK. THERE IS ACTUALLY REASONABLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN 30.00Z
MODEL GUIDANCE. WHILE THIS ZONAL FLOW DOES SUGGEST LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY SPECIFIC FEATURE...IT ALSO SUGGESTS
THAT ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE WEAKENED AND MAINLY OPEN.
GIVEN THE GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES A BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL RUNS WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST SHOULD WORK WELL FOR THIS UPDATE.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY CROSS THE THE REGION WED
NIGHT...STALLING INVOF OF THE S COAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO
THE UPPER STEERING FLOW. COLUMN STILL HAS ENOUGH MOISTURE...SHEAR
AND MODERATE MID LVL LAPSE RATES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO
MAINTAIN AT LEAST SOME RISK OF TS/SHRA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
HOWEVER...WITH THE LACK OF A SFC CONNECTION...WILL LIKELY SEE A
DRYING TREND TOWARD THE MORNING HOURS. BY DAY ON THU...A POCKET
OF STEEP UPPER LVL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...AND WITH THE FRONT
STALLING NEARBY COMBINING WITH ONE LAST UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE
ROTATING THROUGH TO YIELD YET ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL -SHRA AND
POSSIBLY A TS. AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER NOTED...SHEAR REMAINS
ELEVATED AS WELL.

FRI...
WITH UPPER LVL ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE...A WEAK RIDGE AND ATTENDANT
HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...FORCING THE WEAK FRONT
FURTHER TO THE S. MAINLY DRY DAY AS AVAILABLE BUFKIT DATA SHOWS A
DRY COLUMN AND SUBSIDENCE. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN H85 TEMPS SUGGEST
HIGHS ARE SLIGHTLY ON THE WARMER SIDE OF NORMAL AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINES WHERE SEA BREEZE WILL DOMINATE.

THE WEEKEND...
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEGINS TO WAIN HERE MAINLY DUE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WARM WAVE TO THE S OF THE UPPER LVL RIDGE
WHICH COULD GENERATE ENOUGH LIFT FOR -SHRA DEVELOPMENT SAT OR SUN.
HOWEVER...AT THE SAME TIME...THE BERMUDA LOOKS TO GAIN
STRENGTH...AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE UPSTREAM OF A STRONGER WAVE IN
CENTRAL CANADA. THEREFORE...IT/S A BATTLE BETWEEN THIS RIDGING AND
THE WEAK WAVE TO THE S. GIVEN THE ROBUST NATURE OF THE RIDGE AND
AMPLIFICATION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
DRIER...HIGH PRES SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. BUT THERE IS ROOM FOR A
SHOWER SHOULD THE WEAK WAVE TO THE S SHIFT A BIT FURTHER N WITHIN
THE WEAK FLOW REGIME TO THE S OF THE RIDGE. BUILDING RIDGE AND
INCREASING MID LVL TEMPS SUGGEST TEMPS MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE ROBUST SHORTWAVE TO THE W ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL BE MOVING E
AND COULD LEAD TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE FINAL AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...


TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF SHOWER/T-STORM IN NW MA LATE
TODAY.  SEA BREEZES LIKELY AT COASTLINES.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THIS EVENING. MAY SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE AT SOME LOCATIONS...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR
THIS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. MAY ALSO SEE AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION IS THE
LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
TSTMS. RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND
MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MOSTLY VFR...BUT SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS.

FRI AND SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRES...BUT STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING A SHOWER RISK FRI-SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP TOWARD
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. VSBYS LIMITED IN
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS WEAKENING AND SHIFT TO THE W. LINGERING SWELL REMAINS ACROSS
THE WATERS...WITH WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING 5-7 FT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN FOR THIS SWELL. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LINGER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

FRI AND SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS LEADS TO A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET
BOATING WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ255-
     256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 301120
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
720 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS VERY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE SOUTH
COAST INTO THURSDAY...WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. THIS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE COAST FRIDAY...WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7AM UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THIS MORNING. MAINLY TO BRING TEMPS/DWPTS
UP TO CURRENT TRENDS. INCREASED SKY COVER A BIT IN THE W AS WELL
ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEEPENING WAVE WELL W OF THE REGION.
OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A PARTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION.
SEABREEZES WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ISSUE AT HAND WILL BE TO SEE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME...THE GREATEST RISK APPEARS TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
OTHER THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...DRY
WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TOWARD
DAYBREAK. THE TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT THE CONSENSUS
INDICATES AN INCREASING RISK FOR RAINFALL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
MOST OF THE AREA LIKELY SEEING A RISK FOR SHOWERS BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z.

LOTS OF SHEAR PROJECTED TO BE IN PLACE. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. THE CURRENT TIMING IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
UNFAVORED...BUT NOT WITHOUT PRECEDENT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES
GENERATE CAPE OF 700-1500 J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG
SHEAR ALREADY IN PLACE...WE STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
SHOULD ENOUGH INSTABILITY GENERATE FAST ENOUGH.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS IF A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CAN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE
TO DRY THE COLUMN LATE IN THE DAY...SO THERE IS LIMITED WINDOW
FOR A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION. THE DEEPER LAYER SHEAR IS
PROJECTED TO ALSO WEAKEN INT HE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THU
* LOOKING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE FRI THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY
  WEEKEND WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING SOMEWHAT.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
PERSISTENT E PACIFIC BLOCK REMAINS IN PLAY THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
HOWEVER. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF NRN
CANADA...SHIFTING THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES
NE...LEADING TO MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK. THERE IS ACTUALLY REASONABLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN 30.00Z
MODEL GUIDANCE. WHILE THIS ZONAL FLOW DOES SUGGEST LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY SPECIFIC FEATURE...IT ALSO SUGGESTS
THAT ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE WEAKENED AND MAINLY OPEN.
GIVEN THE GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES A BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL RUNS WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST SHOULD WORK WELL FOR THIS UPDATE.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY CROSS THE THE REGION WED
NIGHT...STALLING INVOF OF THE S COAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO
THE UPPER STEERING FLOW. COLUMN STILL HAS ENOUGH MOISTURE...SHEAR
AND MODERATE MID LVL LAPSE RATES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO
MAINTAIN AT LEAST SOME RISK OF TS/SHRA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
HOWEVER...WITH THE LACK OF A SFC CONNECTION...WILL LIKELY SEE A
DRYING TREND TOWARD THE MORNING HOURS. BY DAY ON THU...A POCKET
OF STEEP UPPER LVL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...AND WITH THE FRONT
STALLING NEARBY COMBINING WITH ONE LAST UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE
ROTATING THROUGH TO YIELD YET ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL -SHRA AND
POSSIBLY A TS. AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER NOTED...SHEAR REMAINS
ELEVATED AS WELL.

FRI...
WITH UPPER LVL ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE...A WEAK RIDGE AND ATTENDANT
HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...FORCING THE WEAK FRONT
FURTHER TO THE S. MAINLY DRY DAY AS AVAILABLE BUFKIT DATA SHOWS A
DRY COLUMN AND SUBSIDENCE. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN H85 TEMPS SUGGEST
HIGHS ARE SLIGHTLY ON THE WARMER SIDE OF NORMAL AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINES WHERE SEA BREEZE WILL DOMINATE.

THE WEEKEND...
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEGINS TO WAIN HERE MAINLY DUE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WARM WAVE TO THE S OF THE UPPER LVL RIDGE
WHICH COULD GENERATE ENOUGH LIFT FOR -SHRA DEVELOPMENT SAT OR SUN.
HOWEVER...AT THE SAME TIME...THE BERMUDA LOOKS TO GAIN
STRENGTH...AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE UPSTREAM OF A STRONGER WAVE IN
CENTRAL CANADA. THEREFORE...IT/S A BATTLE BETWEEN THIS RIDGING AND
THE WEAK WAVE TO THE S. GIVEN THE ROBUST NATURE OF THE RIDGE AND
AMPLIFICATION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
DRIER...HIGH PRES SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. BUT THERE IS ROOM FOR A
SHOWER SHOULD THE WEAK WAVE TO THE S SHIFT A BIT FURTHER N WITHIN
THE WEAK FLOW REGIME TO THE S OF THE RIDGE. BUILDING RIDGE AND
INCREASING MID LVL TEMPS SUGGEST TEMPS MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE ROBUST SHORTWAVE TO THE W ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL BE MOVING E
AND COULD LEAD TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE FINAL AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...


TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF SHOWER/T-STORM IN NW MA LATE
TODAY.  SEA BREEZES LIKELY AT COASTLINES.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THIS EVENING. MAY SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE AT SOME LOCATIONS...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR
THIS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. MAY ALSO SEE AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION IS THE
LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
TSTMS. RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND
MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MOSTLY VFR...BUT SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS.

FRI AND SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRES...BUT STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING A SHOWER RISK FRI-SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP TOWARD
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. VSBYS LIMITED IN
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS WEAKENING AND SHIFT TO THE W. LINGERING SWELL REMAINS ACROSS
THE WATERS...WITH WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING 5-7 FT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN FOR THIS SWELL. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LINGER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

FRI AND SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS LEADS TO A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET
BOATING WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ255-
     256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 301120
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
720 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS VERY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE SOUTH
COAST INTO THURSDAY...WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. THIS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE COAST FRIDAY...WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7AM UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THIS MORNING. MAINLY TO BRING TEMPS/DWPTS
UP TO CURRENT TRENDS. INCREASED SKY COVER A BIT IN THE W AS WELL
ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEEPENING WAVE WELL W OF THE REGION.
OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A PARTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION.
SEABREEZES WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ISSUE AT HAND WILL BE TO SEE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME...THE GREATEST RISK APPEARS TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
OTHER THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...DRY
WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TOWARD
DAYBREAK. THE TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT THE CONSENSUS
INDICATES AN INCREASING RISK FOR RAINFALL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
MOST OF THE AREA LIKELY SEEING A RISK FOR SHOWERS BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z.

LOTS OF SHEAR PROJECTED TO BE IN PLACE. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. THE CURRENT TIMING IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
UNFAVORED...BUT NOT WITHOUT PRECEDENT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES
GENERATE CAPE OF 700-1500 J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG
SHEAR ALREADY IN PLACE...WE STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
SHOULD ENOUGH INSTABILITY GENERATE FAST ENOUGH.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS IF A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CAN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE
TO DRY THE COLUMN LATE IN THE DAY...SO THERE IS LIMITED WINDOW
FOR A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION. THE DEEPER LAYER SHEAR IS
PROJECTED TO ALSO WEAKEN INT HE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THU
* LOOKING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE FRI THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY
  WEEKEND WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING SOMEWHAT.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
PERSISTENT E PACIFIC BLOCK REMAINS IN PLAY THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
HOWEVER. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF NRN
CANADA...SHIFTING THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES
NE...LEADING TO MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK. THERE IS ACTUALLY REASONABLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN 30.00Z
MODEL GUIDANCE. WHILE THIS ZONAL FLOW DOES SUGGEST LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY SPECIFIC FEATURE...IT ALSO SUGGESTS
THAT ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE WEAKENED AND MAINLY OPEN.
GIVEN THE GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES A BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL RUNS WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST SHOULD WORK WELL FOR THIS UPDATE.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY CROSS THE THE REGION WED
NIGHT...STALLING INVOF OF THE S COAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO
THE UPPER STEERING FLOW. COLUMN STILL HAS ENOUGH MOISTURE...SHEAR
AND MODERATE MID LVL LAPSE RATES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO
MAINTAIN AT LEAST SOME RISK OF TS/SHRA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
HOWEVER...WITH THE LACK OF A SFC CONNECTION...WILL LIKELY SEE A
DRYING TREND TOWARD THE MORNING HOURS. BY DAY ON THU...A POCKET
OF STEEP UPPER LVL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...AND WITH THE FRONT
STALLING NEARBY COMBINING WITH ONE LAST UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE
ROTATING THROUGH TO YIELD YET ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL -SHRA AND
POSSIBLY A TS. AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER NOTED...SHEAR REMAINS
ELEVATED AS WELL.

FRI...
WITH UPPER LVL ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE...A WEAK RIDGE AND ATTENDANT
HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...FORCING THE WEAK FRONT
FURTHER TO THE S. MAINLY DRY DAY AS AVAILABLE BUFKIT DATA SHOWS A
DRY COLUMN AND SUBSIDENCE. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN H85 TEMPS SUGGEST
HIGHS ARE SLIGHTLY ON THE WARMER SIDE OF NORMAL AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINES WHERE SEA BREEZE WILL DOMINATE.

THE WEEKEND...
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEGINS TO WAIN HERE MAINLY DUE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WARM WAVE TO THE S OF THE UPPER LVL RIDGE
WHICH COULD GENERATE ENOUGH LIFT FOR -SHRA DEVELOPMENT SAT OR SUN.
HOWEVER...AT THE SAME TIME...THE BERMUDA LOOKS TO GAIN
STRENGTH...AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE UPSTREAM OF A STRONGER WAVE IN
CENTRAL CANADA. THEREFORE...IT/S A BATTLE BETWEEN THIS RIDGING AND
THE WEAK WAVE TO THE S. GIVEN THE ROBUST NATURE OF THE RIDGE AND
AMPLIFICATION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
DRIER...HIGH PRES SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. BUT THERE IS ROOM FOR A
SHOWER SHOULD THE WEAK WAVE TO THE S SHIFT A BIT FURTHER N WITHIN
THE WEAK FLOW REGIME TO THE S OF THE RIDGE. BUILDING RIDGE AND
INCREASING MID LVL TEMPS SUGGEST TEMPS MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE ROBUST SHORTWAVE TO THE W ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL BE MOVING E
AND COULD LEAD TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE FINAL AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...


TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF SHOWER/T-STORM IN NW MA LATE
TODAY.  SEA BREEZES LIKELY AT COASTLINES.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THIS EVENING. MAY SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE AT SOME LOCATIONS...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR
THIS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. MAY ALSO SEE AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION IS THE
LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
TSTMS. RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND
MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MOSTLY VFR...BUT SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS.

FRI AND SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRES...BUT STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING A SHOWER RISK FRI-SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP TOWARD
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. VSBYS LIMITED IN
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS WEAKENING AND SHIFT TO THE W. LINGERING SWELL REMAINS ACROSS
THE WATERS...WITH WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING 5-7 FT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN FOR THIS SWELL. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LINGER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

FRI AND SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS LEADS TO A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET
BOATING WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ255-
     256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 301120
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
720 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS VERY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE SOUTH
COAST INTO THURSDAY...WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. THIS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE COAST FRIDAY...WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7AM UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THIS MORNING. MAINLY TO BRING TEMPS/DWPTS
UP TO CURRENT TRENDS. INCREASED SKY COVER A BIT IN THE W AS WELL
ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEEPENING WAVE WELL W OF THE REGION.
OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A PARTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION.
SEABREEZES WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ISSUE AT HAND WILL BE TO SEE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME...THE GREATEST RISK APPEARS TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
OTHER THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...DRY
WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TOWARD
DAYBREAK. THE TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT THE CONSENSUS
INDICATES AN INCREASING RISK FOR RAINFALL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
MOST OF THE AREA LIKELY SEEING A RISK FOR SHOWERS BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z.

LOTS OF SHEAR PROJECTED TO BE IN PLACE. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. THE CURRENT TIMING IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
UNFAVORED...BUT NOT WITHOUT PRECEDENT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES
GENERATE CAPE OF 700-1500 J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG
SHEAR ALREADY IN PLACE...WE STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
SHOULD ENOUGH INSTABILITY GENERATE FAST ENOUGH.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS IF A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CAN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE
TO DRY THE COLUMN LATE IN THE DAY...SO THERE IS LIMITED WINDOW
FOR A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION. THE DEEPER LAYER SHEAR IS
PROJECTED TO ALSO WEAKEN INT HE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THU
* LOOKING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE FRI THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY
  WEEKEND WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING SOMEWHAT.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
PERSISTENT E PACIFIC BLOCK REMAINS IN PLAY THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
HOWEVER. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF NRN
CANADA...SHIFTING THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES
NE...LEADING TO MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK. THERE IS ACTUALLY REASONABLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN 30.00Z
MODEL GUIDANCE. WHILE THIS ZONAL FLOW DOES SUGGEST LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY SPECIFIC FEATURE...IT ALSO SUGGESTS
THAT ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE WEAKENED AND MAINLY OPEN.
GIVEN THE GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES A BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL RUNS WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST SHOULD WORK WELL FOR THIS UPDATE.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY CROSS THE THE REGION WED
NIGHT...STALLING INVOF OF THE S COAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO
THE UPPER STEERING FLOW. COLUMN STILL HAS ENOUGH MOISTURE...SHEAR
AND MODERATE MID LVL LAPSE RATES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO
MAINTAIN AT LEAST SOME RISK OF TS/SHRA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
HOWEVER...WITH THE LACK OF A SFC CONNECTION...WILL LIKELY SEE A
DRYING TREND TOWARD THE MORNING HOURS. BY DAY ON THU...A POCKET
OF STEEP UPPER LVL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...AND WITH THE FRONT
STALLING NEARBY COMBINING WITH ONE LAST UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE
ROTATING THROUGH TO YIELD YET ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL -SHRA AND
POSSIBLY A TS. AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER NOTED...SHEAR REMAINS
ELEVATED AS WELL.

FRI...
WITH UPPER LVL ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE...A WEAK RIDGE AND ATTENDANT
HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...FORCING THE WEAK FRONT
FURTHER TO THE S. MAINLY DRY DAY AS AVAILABLE BUFKIT DATA SHOWS A
DRY COLUMN AND SUBSIDENCE. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN H85 TEMPS SUGGEST
HIGHS ARE SLIGHTLY ON THE WARMER SIDE OF NORMAL AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINES WHERE SEA BREEZE WILL DOMINATE.

THE WEEKEND...
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEGINS TO WAIN HERE MAINLY DUE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WARM WAVE TO THE S OF THE UPPER LVL RIDGE
WHICH COULD GENERATE ENOUGH LIFT FOR -SHRA DEVELOPMENT SAT OR SUN.
HOWEVER...AT THE SAME TIME...THE BERMUDA LOOKS TO GAIN
STRENGTH...AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE UPSTREAM OF A STRONGER WAVE IN
CENTRAL CANADA. THEREFORE...IT/S A BATTLE BETWEEN THIS RIDGING AND
THE WEAK WAVE TO THE S. GIVEN THE ROBUST NATURE OF THE RIDGE AND
AMPLIFICATION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
DRIER...HIGH PRES SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. BUT THERE IS ROOM FOR A
SHOWER SHOULD THE WEAK WAVE TO THE S SHIFT A BIT FURTHER N WITHIN
THE WEAK FLOW REGIME TO THE S OF THE RIDGE. BUILDING RIDGE AND
INCREASING MID LVL TEMPS SUGGEST TEMPS MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE ROBUST SHORTWAVE TO THE W ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL BE MOVING E
AND COULD LEAD TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE FINAL AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...


TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF SHOWER/T-STORM IN NW MA LATE
TODAY.  SEA BREEZES LIKELY AT COASTLINES.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THIS EVENING. MAY SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE AT SOME LOCATIONS...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR
THIS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. MAY ALSO SEE AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION IS THE
LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
TSTMS. RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND
MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MOSTLY VFR...BUT SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS.

FRI AND SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRES...BUT STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING A SHOWER RISK FRI-SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP TOWARD
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. VSBYS LIMITED IN
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS WEAKENING AND SHIFT TO THE W. LINGERING SWELL REMAINS ACROSS
THE WATERS...WITH WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING 5-7 FT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN FOR THIS SWELL. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LINGER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

FRI AND SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS LEADS TO A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET
BOATING WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ255-
     256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 300835
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
435 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS VERY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE SOUTH
COAST INTO THURSDAY...WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. THIS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE COAST FRIDAY...WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A PARTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION.
SEABREEZES WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ISSUE AT HAND WILL BE TO SEE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME...THE GREATEST RISK APPEARS TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
OTHER THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...DRY
WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TOWARD
DAYBREAK. THE TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT THE CONSENSUS
INDICATES AN INCREASING RISK FOR RAINFALL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
MOST OF THE AREA LIKELY SEEING A RISK FOR SHOWERS BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z.

LOTS OF SHEAR PROJECTED TO BE IN PLACE. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. THE CURRENT TIMING IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
UNFAVORED...BUT NOT WITHOUT PRECEDENT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES
GENERATE CAPE OF 700-1500 J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG
SHEAR ALREADY IN PLACE...WE STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
SHOULD ENOUGH INSTABILITY GENERATE FAST ENOUGH.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS IF A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CAN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE
TO DRY THE COLUMN LATE IN THE DAY...SO THERE IS LIMITED WINDOW
FOR A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION. THE DEEPER LAYER SHEAR IS
PROJECTED TO ALSO WEAKEN INT HE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THU
* LOOKING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE FRI THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY
  WEEKEND WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING SOMEWHAT.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
PERSISTENT E PACIFIC BLOCK REMAINS IN PLAY THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
HOWEVER. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF NRN
CANADA...SHIFTING THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES
NE...LEADING TO MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK. THERE IS ACTUALLY REASONABLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN 30.00Z
MODEL GUIDANCE. WHILE THIS ZONAL FLOW DOES SUGGEST LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY SPECIFIC FEATURE...IT ALSO SUGGESTS
THAT ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE WEAKENED AND MAINLY OPEN.
GIVEN THE GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES A BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL RUNS WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST SHOULD WORK WELL FOR THIS UPDATE.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY CROSS THE THE REGION WED
NIGHT...STALLING INVOF OF THE S COAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO
THE UPPER STEERING FLOW. COLUMN STILL HAS ENOUGH MOISTURE...SHEAR
AND MODERATE MID LVL LAPSE RATES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO
MAINTAIN AT LEAST SOME RISK OF TS/SHRA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
HOWEVER...WITH THE LACK OF A SFC CONNECTION...WILL LIKELY SEE A
DRYING TREND TOWARD THE MORNING HOURS. BY DAY ON THU...A POCKET
OF STEEP UPPER LVL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...AND WITH THE FRONT
STALLING NEARBY COMBINING WITH ONE LAST UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE
ROTATING THROUGH TO YIELD YET ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL -SHRA AND
POSSIBLY A TS. AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER NOTED...SHEAR REMAINS
ELEVATED AS WELL.

FRI...
WITH UPPER LVL ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE...A WEAK RIDGE AND ATTENDANT
HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...FORCING THE WEAK FRONT
FURTHER TO THE S. MAINLY DRY DAY AS AVAILABLE BUFKIT DATA SHOWS A
DRY COLUMN AND SUBSIDENCE. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN H85 TEMPS SUGGEST
HIGHS ARE SLIGHTLY ON THE WARMER SIDE OF NORMAL AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINES WHERE SEA BREEZE WILL DOMINATE.

THE WEEKEND...
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEGINS TO WAIN HERE MAINLY DUE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WARM WAVE TO THE S OF THE UPPER LVL RIDGE
WHICH COULD GENERATE ENOUGH LIFT FOR -SHRA DEVELOPMENT SAT OR SUN.
HOWEVER...AT THE SAME TIME...THE BERMUDA LOOKS TO GAIN
STRENGTH...AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE UPSTREAM OF A STRONGER WAVE IN
CENTRAL CANADA. THEREFORE...IT/S A BATTLE BETWEEN THIS RIDGING AND
THE WEAK WAVE TO THE S. GIVEN THE ROBUST NATURE OF THE RIDGE AND
AMPLIFICATION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
DRIER...HIGH PRES SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. BUT THERE IS ROOM FOR A
SHOWER SHOULD THE WEAK WAVE TO THE S SHIFT A BIT FURTHER N WITHIN
THE WEAK FLOW REGIME TO THE S OF THE RIDGE. BUILDING RIDGE AND
INCREASING MID LVL TEMPS SUGGEST TEMPS MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE ROBUST SHORTWAVE TO THE W ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL BE MOVING E
AND COULD LEAD TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE FINAL AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

06Z UPDATE...

THROUGH 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE...OTHER
THAN PERHAPS A FEW HOURS OF PATCHY GROUND FOG LATE IN THE
TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. AN ISOLATED
SPOT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES...WITH THE BEST SHOT IN FAR
NORTHWEST MA.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THIS EVENING. MAY SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE AT SOME LOCATIONS...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR
THIS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. MAY ALSO SEE AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION IS THE
LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
TSTMS. RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND
MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MOSTLY VFR...BUT SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS.

FRI AND SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRES...BUT STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING A SHOWER RISK FRI-SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP TOWARD
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. VSBYS LIMITED IN
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS WEAKENING AND SHIFT TO THE W. LINGERING SWELL REMAINS ACROSS
THE WATERS...WITH WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING 5-7 FT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN FOR THIS SWELL. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LINGER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

FRI AND SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS LEADS TO A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET
BOATING WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ255-
     256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 300835
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
435 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS VERY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE SOUTH
COAST INTO THURSDAY...WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. THIS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE COAST FRIDAY...WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A PARTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION.
SEABREEZES WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ISSUE AT HAND WILL BE TO SEE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME...THE GREATEST RISK APPEARS TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
OTHER THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...DRY
WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TOWARD
DAYBREAK. THE TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT THE CONSENSUS
INDICATES AN INCREASING RISK FOR RAINFALL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
MOST OF THE AREA LIKELY SEEING A RISK FOR SHOWERS BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z.

LOTS OF SHEAR PROJECTED TO BE IN PLACE. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. THE CURRENT TIMING IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
UNFAVORED...BUT NOT WITHOUT PRECEDENT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES
GENERATE CAPE OF 700-1500 J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG
SHEAR ALREADY IN PLACE...WE STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
SHOULD ENOUGH INSTABILITY GENERATE FAST ENOUGH.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS IF A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CAN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE
TO DRY THE COLUMN LATE IN THE DAY...SO THERE IS LIMITED WINDOW
FOR A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION. THE DEEPER LAYER SHEAR IS
PROJECTED TO ALSO WEAKEN INT HE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THU
* LOOKING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE FRI THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY
  WEEKEND WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING SOMEWHAT.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
PERSISTENT E PACIFIC BLOCK REMAINS IN PLAY THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
HOWEVER. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF NRN
CANADA...SHIFTING THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES
NE...LEADING TO MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK. THERE IS ACTUALLY REASONABLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN 30.00Z
MODEL GUIDANCE. WHILE THIS ZONAL FLOW DOES SUGGEST LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY SPECIFIC FEATURE...IT ALSO SUGGESTS
THAT ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE WEAKENED AND MAINLY OPEN.
GIVEN THE GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES A BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL RUNS WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST SHOULD WORK WELL FOR THIS UPDATE.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY CROSS THE THE REGION WED
NIGHT...STALLING INVOF OF THE S COAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO
THE UPPER STEERING FLOW. COLUMN STILL HAS ENOUGH MOISTURE...SHEAR
AND MODERATE MID LVL LAPSE RATES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO
MAINTAIN AT LEAST SOME RISK OF TS/SHRA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
HOWEVER...WITH THE LACK OF A SFC CONNECTION...WILL LIKELY SEE A
DRYING TREND TOWARD THE MORNING HOURS. BY DAY ON THU...A POCKET
OF STEEP UPPER LVL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...AND WITH THE FRONT
STALLING NEARBY COMBINING WITH ONE LAST UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE
ROTATING THROUGH TO YIELD YET ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL -SHRA AND
POSSIBLY A TS. AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER NOTED...SHEAR REMAINS
ELEVATED AS WELL.

FRI...
WITH UPPER LVL ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE...A WEAK RIDGE AND ATTENDANT
HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...FORCING THE WEAK FRONT
FURTHER TO THE S. MAINLY DRY DAY AS AVAILABLE BUFKIT DATA SHOWS A
DRY COLUMN AND SUBSIDENCE. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN H85 TEMPS SUGGEST
HIGHS ARE SLIGHTLY ON THE WARMER SIDE OF NORMAL AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINES WHERE SEA BREEZE WILL DOMINATE.

THE WEEKEND...
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEGINS TO WAIN HERE MAINLY DUE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WARM WAVE TO THE S OF THE UPPER LVL RIDGE
WHICH COULD GENERATE ENOUGH LIFT FOR -SHRA DEVELOPMENT SAT OR SUN.
HOWEVER...AT THE SAME TIME...THE BERMUDA LOOKS TO GAIN
STRENGTH...AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE UPSTREAM OF A STRONGER WAVE IN
CENTRAL CANADA. THEREFORE...IT/S A BATTLE BETWEEN THIS RIDGING AND
THE WEAK WAVE TO THE S. GIVEN THE ROBUST NATURE OF THE RIDGE AND
AMPLIFICATION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
DRIER...HIGH PRES SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. BUT THERE IS ROOM FOR A
SHOWER SHOULD THE WEAK WAVE TO THE S SHIFT A BIT FURTHER N WITHIN
THE WEAK FLOW REGIME TO THE S OF THE RIDGE. BUILDING RIDGE AND
INCREASING MID LVL TEMPS SUGGEST TEMPS MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE ROBUST SHORTWAVE TO THE W ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL BE MOVING E
AND COULD LEAD TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE FINAL AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

06Z UPDATE...

THROUGH 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE...OTHER
THAN PERHAPS A FEW HOURS OF PATCHY GROUND FOG LATE IN THE
TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. AN ISOLATED
SPOT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES...WITH THE BEST SHOT IN FAR
NORTHWEST MA.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THIS EVENING. MAY SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE AT SOME LOCATIONS...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR
THIS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. MAY ALSO SEE AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION IS THE
LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
TSTMS. RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND
MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MOSTLY VFR...BUT SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS.

FRI AND SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRES...BUT STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING A SHOWER RISK FRI-SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP TOWARD
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. VSBYS LIMITED IN
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS WEAKENING AND SHIFT TO THE W. LINGERING SWELL REMAINS ACROSS
THE WATERS...WITH WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING 5-7 FT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN FOR THIS SWELL. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LINGER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

FRI AND SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS LEADS TO A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET
BOATING WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ255-
     256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 300748
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
348 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS VERY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE SOUTH
COAST INTO THURSDAY...WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. THIS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE COAST FRIDAY...WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A PARTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION.
SEABREEZES WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ISSUE AT HAND WILL BE TO SEE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME...THE GREATEST RISK APPEARS TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
OTHER THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...DRY
WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TOWARD
DAYBREAK. THE TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT THE CONSENSUS
INDICATES AN INCREASING RISK FOR RAINFALL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
MOST OF THE AREA LIKELY SEEING A RISK FOR SHOWERS BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z.

LOTS OF SHEAR PROJECTED TO BE IN PLACE. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. THE CURRENT TIMING IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
UNFAVORED...BUT NOT WITHOUT PRECEDENT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES
GENERATE CAPE OF 700-1500 J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG
SHEAR ALREADY IN PLACE...WE STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
SHOULD ENOUGH INSTABILITY GENERATE FAST ENOUGH.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS IF A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CAN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE
TO DRY THE COLUMN LATE IN THE DAY...SO THERE IS LIMITED WINDOW
FOR A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION. THE DEEPER LAYER SHEAR IS
PROJECTED TO ALSO WEAKEN INT HE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THU
* LOOKING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE FRI THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY
  WEEKEND WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING SOMEWHAT.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
PERSISTENT E PACIFIC BLOCK REMAINS IN PLAY THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
HOWEVER. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF NRN
CANADA...SHIFTING THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES
NE...LEADING TO MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK. THERE IS ACTUALLY REASONABLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN 30.00Z
MODEL GUIDANCE. WHILE THIS ZONAL FLOW DOES SUGGEST LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY SPECIFIC FEATURE...IT ALSO SUGGESTS
THAT ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE WEAKENED AND MAINLY OPEN.
GIVEN THE GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES A BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL RUNS WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST SHOULD WORK WELL FOR THIS UPDATE.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY CROSS THE THE REGION WED
NIGHT...STALLING INVOF OF THE S COAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO
THE UPPER STEERING FLOW. COLUMN STILL HAS ENOUGH MOISTURE...SHEAR
AND MODERATE MID LVL LAPSE RATES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO
MAINTAIN AT LEAST SOME RISK OF TS/SHRA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
HOWEVER...WITH THE LACK OF A SFC CONNECTION...WILL LIKELY SEE A
DRYING TREND TOWARD THE MORNING HOURS. BY DAY ON THU... A POCKET
OF STEEP UPPER LVL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...AND WITH THE FRONT
STALLING NEARBY COMBINING WITH ONE LAST UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE
ROTATING THROUGH TO YIELD YET ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL -SHRA AND
POSSIBLY A TS. AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER NOTED...SHEAR REMAINS
ELEVATED AS WELL.

FRI...
WITH UPPER LVL ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE...A WEAK RIDGE AND ATTENDANT
HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...FORCING THE WEAK FRONT
FURTHER TO THE S. MAINLY DRY DAY AS AVAILABLE BUFKIT DATA SHOWS A
DRY COLUMN AND SUBSIDENCE. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN H85 TEMPS SUGGEST
HIGHS ARE SLIGHTLY ON THE WARMER SIDE OF NORMAL AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINES WHERE SEA BREEZE WILL DOMINATE.

THE WEEKEND...
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEGINS TO WAIN HERE MAINLY DUE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WARM WAVE TO THE S OF THE UPPER LVL RIDGE
WHICH COULD GENERATE ENOUGH LIFT FOR -SHRA DEVELOPMENT SAT OR SUN.
HOWEVER...AT THE SAME TIME...THE BERMUDA LOOKS TO GAIN
STRENGTH...AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE UPSTREAM OF A STRONGER WAVE IN
CENTRAL CANADA. THEREFORE...IT/S A BATTLE BETWEEN THIS RIDGING AND
THE WEAK WAVE TO THE S. GIVEN THE ROBUST NATURE OF THE RIDGE AND
AMPLIFICATION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
DRIER...HIGH PRES SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. BUT THERE IS ROOM FOR A
SHOWER SHOULD THE WEAK WAVE TO THE S SHIFT A BIT FURTHER N WITHIN
THE WEAK FLOW REGIME TO THE S OF THE RIDGE. BUILDING RIDGE AND
INCREASING MID LVL TEMPS SUGGEST TEMPS MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE ROBUST SHORTWAVE TO THE W ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL BE MOVING E
AND COULD LEAD TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE FINAL AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

06Z UPDATE...

THROUGH 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE...OTHER
THAN PERHAPS A FEW HOURS OF PATCHY GROUND FOG LATE IN THE
TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. AN ISOLATED
SPOT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES...WITH THE BEST SHOT IN FAR
NORTHWEST MA.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THIS EVENING. MAY SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE AT SOME LOCATIONS...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR
THIS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. MAY ALSO SEE AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION IS THE
LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
TSTMS. RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND
MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MOSTLY VFR...BUT SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS.

FRI AND SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRES...BUT STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING A SHOWER RISK FRI-SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP TOWARD
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. VSBYS LIMITED IN
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS WEAKENING AND SHIFT TO THE W. LINGERING SWELL REMAINS ACROSS
THE WATERS...WITH WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING 5-7 FT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN FOR THIS SWELL. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LINGER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

FRI AND SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS LEADS TO A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET
BOATING WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ235-237-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 300748
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
348 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS VERY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE SOUTH
COAST INTO THURSDAY...WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. THIS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE COAST FRIDAY...WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A PARTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION.
SEABREEZES WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ISSUE AT HAND WILL BE TO SEE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME...THE GREATEST RISK APPEARS TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
OTHER THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...DRY
WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TOWARD
DAYBREAK. THE TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT THE CONSENSUS
INDICATES AN INCREASING RISK FOR RAINFALL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
MOST OF THE AREA LIKELY SEEING A RISK FOR SHOWERS BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z.

LOTS OF SHEAR PROJECTED TO BE IN PLACE. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. THE CURRENT TIMING IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
UNFAVORED...BUT NOT WITHOUT PRECEDENT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES
GENERATE CAPE OF 700-1500 J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG
SHEAR ALREADY IN PLACE...WE STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
SHOULD ENOUGH INSTABILITY GENERATE FAST ENOUGH.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS IF A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CAN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE
TO DRY THE COLUMN LATE IN THE DAY...SO THERE IS LIMITED WINDOW
FOR A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION. THE DEEPER LAYER SHEAR IS
PROJECTED TO ALSO WEAKEN INT HE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THU
* LOOKING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE FRI THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY
  WEEKEND WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING SOMEWHAT.

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
PERSISTENT E PACIFIC BLOCK REMAINS IN PLAY THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
HOWEVER. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF NRN
CANADA...SHIFTING THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES
NE...LEADING TO MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK. THERE IS ACTUALLY REASONABLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN 30.00Z
MODEL GUIDANCE. WHILE THIS ZONAL FLOW DOES SUGGEST LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY SPECIFIC FEATURE...IT ALSO SUGGESTS
THAT ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE WEAKENED AND MAINLY OPEN.
GIVEN THE GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES A BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL RUNS WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST SHOULD WORK WELL FOR THIS UPDATE.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY CROSS THE THE REGION WED
NIGHT...STALLING INVOF OF THE S COAST AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO
THE UPPER STEERING FLOW. COLUMN STILL HAS ENOUGH MOISTURE...SHEAR
AND MODERATE MID LVL LAPSE RATES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO
MAINTAIN AT LEAST SOME RISK OF TS/SHRA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
HOWEVER...WITH THE LACK OF A SFC CONNECTION...WILL LIKELY SEE A
DRYING TREND TOWARD THE MORNING HOURS. BY DAY ON THU... A POCKET
OF STEEP UPPER LVL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...AND WITH THE FRONT
STALLING NEARBY COMBINING WITH ONE LAST UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE
ROTATING THROUGH TO YIELD YET ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL -SHRA AND
POSSIBLY A TS. AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER NOTED...SHEAR REMAINS
ELEVATED AS WELL.

FRI...
WITH UPPER LVL ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE...A WEAK RIDGE AND ATTENDANT
HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...FORCING THE WEAK FRONT
FURTHER TO THE S. MAINLY DRY DAY AS AVAILABLE BUFKIT DATA SHOWS A
DRY COLUMN AND SUBSIDENCE. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN H85 TEMPS SUGGEST
HIGHS ARE SLIGHTLY ON THE WARMER SIDE OF NORMAL AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINES WHERE SEA BREEZE WILL DOMINATE.

THE WEEKEND...
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEGINS TO WAIN HERE MAINLY DUE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WARM WAVE TO THE S OF THE UPPER LVL RIDGE
WHICH COULD GENERATE ENOUGH LIFT FOR -SHRA DEVELOPMENT SAT OR SUN.
HOWEVER...AT THE SAME TIME...THE BERMUDA LOOKS TO GAIN
STRENGTH...AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE UPSTREAM OF A STRONGER WAVE IN
CENTRAL CANADA. THEREFORE...IT/S A BATTLE BETWEEN THIS RIDGING AND
THE WEAK WAVE TO THE S. GIVEN THE ROBUST NATURE OF THE RIDGE AND
AMPLIFICATION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
DRIER...HIGH PRES SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. BUT THERE IS ROOM FOR A
SHOWER SHOULD THE WEAK WAVE TO THE S SHIFT A BIT FURTHER N WITHIN
THE WEAK FLOW REGIME TO THE S OF THE RIDGE. BUILDING RIDGE AND
INCREASING MID LVL TEMPS SUGGEST TEMPS MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE ROBUST SHORTWAVE TO THE W ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL BE MOVING E
AND COULD LEAD TO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE FINAL AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

06Z UPDATE...

THROUGH 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE...OTHER
THAN PERHAPS A FEW HOURS OF PATCHY GROUND FOG LATE IN THE
TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. AN ISOLATED
SPOT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES...WITH THE BEST SHOT IN FAR
NORTHWEST MA.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THIS EVENING. MAY SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE AT SOME LOCATIONS...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR
THIS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. MAY ALSO SEE AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION IS THE
LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
TSTMS. RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND
MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MOSTLY VFR...BUT SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS.

FRI AND SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRES...BUT STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING A SHOWER RISK FRI-SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP TOWARD
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. VSBYS LIMITED IN
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WINDS WEAKENING AND SHIFT TO THE W. LINGERING SWELL REMAINS ACROSS
THE WATERS...WITH WAVE HEIGHTS AVERAGING 5-7 FT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN FOR THIS SWELL. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LINGER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

FRI AND SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES OVER THE WATERS LEADS TO A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET
BOATING WEATHER.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ235-237-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 300734
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
334 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS VERY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS THIS FRONT STALLS OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE COAST FRIDAY...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A PARTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION.
SEABREEZES WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ISSUE AT HAND WILL BE TO SEE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME...THE GREATEST RISK APPEARS TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...

OTHER THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...DRY
WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TOWARD
DAYBREAK. THE TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT THE CONSENSUS
INDICATES AN INCREASING RISK FOR RAINFALL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
MOST OF THE AREA LIKELY SEEING A RISK FOR SHOWERS BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z.

LOTS OF SHEAR PROJECTED TO BE IN PLACE. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. THE CURRENT TIMING IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
UNFAVORED...BUT NOT WITHOUT PRECEDENT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES
GENERATE CAPE OF 700-1500 J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG
SHEAR ALREADY IN PLACE...WE STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
SHOULD ENOUGH INSTABILITY GENERATE FAST ENOUGH.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS IF A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CAN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE
TO DRY THE COLUMN LATE IN THE DAY...SO THERE IS LIMITED WINDOW
FOR A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION. THE DEEPER LAYER SHEAR IS
PROJECTED TO ALSO WEAKEN INT HE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THU
* LOOKING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE FRI THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY
  WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH

OVERVIEW...HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ACROSS THE
GT LAKES WITH SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING INTO NEW ENG WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER THU. MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING
WITH THE LOCATION OF A FRONTAL WAVE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE QUITE WET HERE THU NIGHT
INTO FRI BUT 12Z RUNS ARE NOW SUPPRESSED AND KEEP IT DRY HERE
RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENG.
HOWEVER...GIVEN PROXIMITY OF A SERIES OF WAVES JUST TO THE
SOUTH...CONFIDENCE IN A DRY FORECAST IS NOT HIGH AS A SLIGHT
NORTHWARD SHIFT WOULD MEAN A COOL RAIN.

THURSDAY...COLD FRONT LIKELY GETS HUNG UP ACROSS SNE AS ANOTHER
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE GT LAKES. MODELS SHOW
DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING WITH UP TO 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND A
SURGE OF HIGHER KI VALUES MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION SO MORE
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
FOCUS MORE IN CENTRAL AND E NEW ENG. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS 35-40 KT SO
IF INSTABILITY IS REALIZED CANT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS BUT
MID LAPSE RATES WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST BUT LATEST
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH A
WARMING TREND BY SUNDAY AS A SERIES OF WAVES REMAIN TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH SAT WITH WEAK HIGH PRES IN CONTROL. HOWEVER...ANY SLIGHT
NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT WOULD RESULT IN COOLER AND WET WEATHER FRI
AND SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

06Z UPDATE...

THROUGH 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE...OTHER
THAN PERHAPS A FEW HOURS OF PATCHY GROUND FOG LATE IN THE
TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. AN ISOLATED
SPOT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES...WITH THE BEST SHOT IN FAR
NORTHWEST MA.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THIS EVENING. MAY SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE AT SOME LOCATIONS...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR
THIS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. MAY ALSO SEE AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION IS THE
LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
TSTMS. RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND
MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY VFR...BUT SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.

FRI AND SAT...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS...BUT
IT COULD STILL END UP WET IF WAVES OF LOW PRES TRACK FURTHER N.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP TOWARD
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. VSBYS LIMITED IN
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT SW WINDS BUT LEFTOVER SOUTHERLY
SWELL WILL RESULT IN SCA SEAS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

FRI AND SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. MARGINAL
SCA SEAS POSSIBLE SOUTHERN WATERS ON FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ235-237-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/KJC
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...BELK/KJC
MARINE...BELK/KJC




000
FXUS61 KBOX 300734
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
334 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS VERY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS THIS FRONT STALLS OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE COAST FRIDAY...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A PARTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION.
SEABREEZES WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ISSUE AT HAND WILL BE TO SEE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME...THE GREATEST RISK APPEARS TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...

OTHER THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...DRY
WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. A POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TOWARD
DAYBREAK. THE TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT THE CONSENSUS
INDICATES AN INCREASING RISK FOR RAINFALL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
MOST OF THE AREA LIKELY SEEING A RISK FOR SHOWERS BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z.

LOTS OF SHEAR PROJECTED TO BE IN PLACE. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. THE CURRENT TIMING IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
UNFAVORED...BUT NOT WITHOUT PRECEDENT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES
GENERATE CAPE OF 700-1500 J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG
SHEAR ALREADY IN PLACE...WE STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
SHOULD ENOUGH INSTABILITY GENERATE FAST ENOUGH.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS IF A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CAN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE
TO DRY THE COLUMN LATE IN THE DAY...SO THERE IS LIMITED WINDOW
FOR A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION. THE DEEPER LAYER SHEAR IS
PROJECTED TO ALSO WEAKEN INT HE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THU
* LOOKING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE FRI THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY
  WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH

OVERVIEW...HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ACROSS THE
GT LAKES WITH SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING INTO NEW ENG WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER THU. MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING
WITH THE LOCATION OF A FRONTAL WAVE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE QUITE WET HERE THU NIGHT
INTO FRI BUT 12Z RUNS ARE NOW SUPPRESSED AND KEEP IT DRY HERE
RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENG.
HOWEVER...GIVEN PROXIMITY OF A SERIES OF WAVES JUST TO THE
SOUTH...CONFIDENCE IN A DRY FORECAST IS NOT HIGH AS A SLIGHT
NORTHWARD SHIFT WOULD MEAN A COOL RAIN.

THURSDAY...COLD FRONT LIKELY GETS HUNG UP ACROSS SNE AS ANOTHER
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE GT LAKES. MODELS SHOW
DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING WITH UP TO 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND A
SURGE OF HIGHER KI VALUES MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION SO MORE
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
FOCUS MORE IN CENTRAL AND E NEW ENG. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS 35-40 KT SO
IF INSTABILITY IS REALIZED CANT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS BUT
MID LAPSE RATES WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST BUT LATEST
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH A
WARMING TREND BY SUNDAY AS A SERIES OF WAVES REMAIN TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH SAT WITH WEAK HIGH PRES IN CONTROL. HOWEVER...ANY SLIGHT
NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT WOULD RESULT IN COOLER AND WET WEATHER FRI
AND SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

06Z UPDATE...

THROUGH 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE...OTHER
THAN PERHAPS A FEW HOURS OF PATCHY GROUND FOG LATE IN THE
TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. AN ISOLATED
SPOT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES...WITH THE BEST SHOT IN FAR
NORTHWEST MA.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR THIS EVENING. MAY SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE AT SOME LOCATIONS...WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR
THIS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. MAY ALSO SEE AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION IS THE
LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
TSTMS. RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND
MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY VFR...BUT SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.

FRI AND SAT...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS...BUT
IT COULD STILL END UP WET IF WAVES OF LOW PRES TRACK FURTHER N.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP TOWARD
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. VSBYS LIMITED IN
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT SW WINDS BUT LEFTOVER SOUTHERLY
SWELL WILL RESULT IN SCA SEAS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

FRI AND SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. MARGINAL
SCA SEAS POSSIBLE SOUTHERN WATERS ON FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ235-237-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/KJC
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...BELK/KJC
MARINE...BELK/KJC



000
FXUS61 KBOX 300230
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1030 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS VERY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS IN NEW ENGLAND. THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH OF THE COAST FRIDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING
MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
1030 PM UPDATE...

LIGHT SHOWERS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAVE DISSIPATED. STILL
HAVE SCATTERED AREAS OF HIGH STRATOCUMULUS/LOW ALTOCUMULUS
CLOUDS...WITH SOME CIRRUS FOR GOOD MEASURE. LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE BECOME ESTABLISHED...AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...
BUT DID TWEAK TEMEPRATURES FROM NOW INTO TUESDAY MORNING TO
REFLECT OBSERVED TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISUCSSION...

LOW TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH SOME LOWER
60S POSSIBLE AT A FEW LOCATIONS. PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP
LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
WIDESPREAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...

A PARTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION.  HIGH TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S...BUT COOLER MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ARE
EXPECTED ON PORTIONS OF THE COAST WITH SEA BREEZES.  UPPER
TROUGH/SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE AND PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  ACROSS OUR REGION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL GENERALLY
RESULT IN DRY WEATHER.  MAY SEE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AN
ISOLATED BRIEF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN FAR NORTHERN ZONES AND
ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST MA LATE TUE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

OTHER THAN AN EVENING ISOLATED SPOT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IN NORTHERN
OR NORTHWEST MA...DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
HOWEVER...POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK.  TIMING UNCERTAIN...BUT SOME
OF THE MODELS SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORKING INTO PARTS OF
THE REGION BETWEEN 9Z AND 12Z.  TIMING IS UNCERTAIN AND THE BULK OF
THE ACTION MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z.  IF ACTIVITY DOES ARRIVE
EARLY...MAY SEE QUITE A BIT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION IN OUR WESTERN
ZONES GIVEN 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -12C AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AROUND 6.5C/KM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WEDNESDAY...SOME STORMS MAY BE
  STRONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
* CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THU
* LOOKING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE FRI THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY
  WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH

OVERVIEW...HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ACROSS THE
GT LAKES WITH SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING INTO NEW ENG WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER WED AND THU. MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING WITH THE LOCATION OF A FRONTAL WAVE TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK. PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE QUITE WET HERE
THU NIGHT INTO FRI BUT 12Z RUNS ARE NOW SUPPRESSED AND KEEP IT DRY
HERE RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW
ENG. HOWEVER...GIVEN PROXIMITY OF A SERIES OF WAVES JUST TO THE
SOUTH...CONFIDENCE IN A DRY FORECAST IS NOT HIGH AS A SLIGHT
NORTHWARD SHIFT WOULD MEAN A COOL RAIN.

WEDNESDAY...INTERESTING SET UP AS SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WILL
LIKELY BE MOVING INTO SNE FIRST THING IN THE MORNING AS MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND WARM FRONT MOVES UP FROM
THE SW. ALL MODELS ARE GENERATING DECENT SFC INSTABILITY GREATER
THAN 1000 J/KG BY 18Z DUE TO FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS
COMBINED WITH GOOD LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC FORCING AND DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE SUGGESTS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS MOVING WEST TO
EAST ACROSS SNE DURING THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. GOOD
500 MB JET PUNCHING INTO THE REGION RESULTS IN 0-6KM SHEAR OF
40-45 KT WHICH IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE. IF INSTABILITY CAN BE
REALIZED WE CANT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WED
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BUT IT COULD ALSO JUST BE A BATCH OF
SHOWERS AND WEAKER STORMS OF INSTABILITY IS WEAKER AS WARM FRONT
NOT LIKELY TO LIFT TO THE NORTH UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. IT IS
POSSIBLE HOWEVER THAT THE COOL AIR ALOFT ASSOCD WITH THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND RESULTING STEEP LAPSE RATES HELPS TO MAINTAIN DECENT
SFC INSTABILITY. THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT. THE MAIN
QUESTION FOR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON IS IF A SECOND ROUND OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS CAN DEVELOP IN THE INTERIOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
MODELS ARE DRYING THE COLUMN LATE IN THE DAY SO THERE IS LIMITED
WINDOW FOR A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION. ALSO DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
WEAKENING AFT 18Z. TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 70S BUT IT WILL BECOME
HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 60S.

THURSDAY...COLD FRONT LIKELY GETS HUNG UP ACROSS SNE AS ANOTHER
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE GT LAKES. MODELS SHOW
DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING WITH UP TO 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND A
SURGE OF HIGHER KI VALUES MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION SO MORE
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
FOCUS MORE IN CENTRAL AND E NEW ENG. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS 35-40 KT SO
IF INSTABILITY IS REALIZED CANT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS BUT
MID LAPSE RATES WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST BUT LATEST
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH A
WARMING TREND BY SUNDAY AS A SERIES OF WAVES REMAIN TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH SAT WITH WEAK HIGH PRES IN CONTROL. HOWEVER...ANY SLIGHT
NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT WOULD RESULT IN COOLER AND WET WEATHER FRI
AND SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

02Z UPDATE...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE REST
OF THE NIGHT...OTHER THAN PERHAPS A FEW HOURS OF PATCHY GROUND FOG
LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  AN ISOLATED
SPOT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES...WITH THE BEST SHOT IN FAR NORTHWEST
MA.

TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.  VFR IN THE EVENING.  MAY SEE SOME
LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH THE BEST SHOT FOR
THIS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  MAY ALSO SEE AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
DAYBREAK...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THAT IS ALSO LOW.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WED...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TSTMS.
RISK OF A FEW STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY.

THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY VFR...BUT SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.

FRI AND SAT...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS...BUT
IT COULD STILL END UP WET IF WAVES OF LOW PRES TRACK FURTHER N.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...LEFTOVER SWELL OF 3 TO 6 FEET WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COASTA WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES CONTINUE
ACCORDINGLY.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SOME FOG MAY
DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT WITH SCA SEAS OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS. VSBYS LIMITED IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS AND
AREAS OF FOG.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT SW WINDS BUT LEFTOVER SOUTHERLY SWELL
WILL RESULT IN SCA SEAS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

FRI AND SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. MARGINAL
SCA SEAS POSSIBLE SOUTHERN WATERS ON FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/FRANK
NEAR TERM...BELK/FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...BELK/KJC/FRANK
MARINE...BELK/KJC/FRANK



000
FXUS61 KBOX 300230
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1030 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS VERY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS IN NEW ENGLAND. THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH OF THE COAST FRIDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING
MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
1030 PM UPDATE...

LIGHT SHOWERS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAVE DISSIPATED. STILL
HAVE SCATTERED AREAS OF HIGH STRATOCUMULUS/LOW ALTOCUMULUS
CLOUDS...WITH SOME CIRRUS FOR GOOD MEASURE. LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE BECOME ESTABLISHED...AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...
BUT DID TWEAK TEMEPRATURES FROM NOW INTO TUESDAY MORNING TO
REFLECT OBSERVED TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISUCSSION...

LOW TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH SOME LOWER
60S POSSIBLE AT A FEW LOCATIONS. PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP
LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
WIDESPREAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...

A PARTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION.  HIGH TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S...BUT COOLER MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ARE
EXPECTED ON PORTIONS OF THE COAST WITH SEA BREEZES.  UPPER
TROUGH/SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE AND PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  ACROSS OUR REGION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL GENERALLY
RESULT IN DRY WEATHER.  MAY SEE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AN
ISOLATED BRIEF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN FAR NORTHERN ZONES AND
ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST MA LATE TUE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

OTHER THAN AN EVENING ISOLATED SPOT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IN NORTHERN
OR NORTHWEST MA...DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
HOWEVER...POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK.  TIMING UNCERTAIN...BUT SOME
OF THE MODELS SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORKING INTO PARTS OF
THE REGION BETWEEN 9Z AND 12Z.  TIMING IS UNCERTAIN AND THE BULK OF
THE ACTION MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z.  IF ACTIVITY DOES ARRIVE
EARLY...MAY SEE QUITE A BIT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION IN OUR WESTERN
ZONES GIVEN 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -12C AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AROUND 6.5C/KM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WEDNESDAY...SOME STORMS MAY BE
  STRONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
* CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THU
* LOOKING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE FRI THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY
  WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH

OVERVIEW...HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ACROSS THE
GT LAKES WITH SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING INTO NEW ENG WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER WED AND THU. MODELS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING WITH THE LOCATION OF A FRONTAL WAVE TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK. PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE QUITE WET HERE
THU NIGHT INTO FRI BUT 12Z RUNS ARE NOW SUPPRESSED AND KEEP IT DRY
HERE RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW
ENG. HOWEVER...GIVEN PROXIMITY OF A SERIES OF WAVES JUST TO THE
SOUTH...CONFIDENCE IN A DRY FORECAST IS NOT HIGH AS A SLIGHT
NORTHWARD SHIFT WOULD MEAN A COOL RAIN.

WEDNESDAY...INTERESTING SET UP AS SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WILL
LIKELY BE MOVING INTO SNE FIRST THING IN THE MORNING AS MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND WARM FRONT MOVES UP FROM
THE SW. ALL MODELS ARE GENERATING DECENT SFC INSTABILITY GREATER
THAN 1000 J/KG BY 18Z DUE TO FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS
COMBINED WITH GOOD LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC FORCING AND DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE SUGGESTS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS MOVING WEST TO
EAST ACROSS SNE DURING THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. GOOD
500 MB JET PUNCHING INTO THE REGION RESULTS IN 0-6KM SHEAR OF
40-45 KT WHICH IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE. IF INSTABILITY CAN BE
REALIZED WE CANT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WED
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BUT IT COULD ALSO JUST BE A BATCH OF
SHOWERS AND WEAKER STORMS OF INSTABILITY IS WEAKER AS WARM FRONT
NOT LIKELY TO LIFT TO THE NORTH UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. IT IS
POSSIBLE HOWEVER THAT THE COOL AIR ALOFT ASSOCD WITH THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND RESULTING STEEP LAPSE RATES HELPS TO MAINTAIN DECENT
SFC INSTABILITY. THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT. THE MAIN
QUESTION FOR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON IS IF A SECOND ROUND OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS CAN DEVELOP IN THE INTERIOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
MODELS ARE DRYING THE COLUMN LATE IN THE DAY SO THERE IS LIMITED
WINDOW FOR A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION. ALSO DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
WEAKENING AFT 18Z. TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 70S BUT IT WILL BECOME
HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 60S.

THURSDAY...COLD FRONT LIKELY GETS HUNG UP ACROSS SNE AS ANOTHER
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE GT LAKES. MODELS SHOW
DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING WITH UP TO 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND A
SURGE OF HIGHER KI VALUES MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION SO MORE
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
FOCUS MORE IN CENTRAL AND E NEW ENG. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS 35-40 KT SO
IF INSTABILITY IS REALIZED CANT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS BUT
MID LAPSE RATES WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST BUT LATEST
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH A
WARMING TREND BY SUNDAY AS A SERIES OF WAVES REMAIN TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH SAT WITH WEAK HIGH PRES IN CONTROL. HOWEVER...ANY SLIGHT
NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT WOULD RESULT IN COOLER AND WET WEATHER FRI
AND SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

02Z UPDATE...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE REST
OF THE NIGHT...OTHER THAN PERHAPS A FEW HOURS OF PATCHY GROUND FOG
LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  AN ISOLATED
SPOT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES...WITH THE BEST SHOT IN FAR NORTHWEST
MA.

TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.  VFR IN THE EVENING.  MAY SEE SOME
LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH THE BEST SHOT FOR
THIS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  MAY ALSO SEE AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
DAYBREAK...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THAT IS ALSO LOW.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WED...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TSTMS.
RISK OF A FEW STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY.

THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY VFR...BUT SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.

FRI AND SAT...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS...BUT
IT COULD STILL END UP WET IF WAVES OF LOW PRES TRACK FURTHER N.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...LEFTOVER SWELL OF 3 TO 6 FEET WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COASTA WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES CONTINUE
ACCORDINGLY.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SOME FOG MAY
DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT WITH SCA SEAS OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS. VSBYS LIMITED IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS AND
AREAS OF FOG.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT SW WINDS BUT LEFTOVER SOUTHERLY SWELL
WILL RESULT IN SCA SEAS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

FRI AND SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. MARGINAL
SCA SEAS POSSIBLE SOUTHERN WATERS ON FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/FRANK
NEAR TERM...BELK/FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...BELK/KJC/FRANK
MARINE...BELK/KJC/FRANK




000
FXUS61 KBOX 292313
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
713 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS VERY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS IN NEW ENGLAND. THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH OF THE COAST FRIDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING
MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
710 PM UPDATE...
STILL A FEW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH W AND CENTRAL MA WHICH WILL
DISSIPATE BY 8-9 PM. OTHERWISE...STRATO-CU ARE BEGINNING TO ERODE
AND THIS WILL CONTINUE AS MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW DRYING IN THE
3 TO 6 THOUSAND FOOT LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE. MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.

LOW TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH SOME LOWER
60S POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCATIONS.  PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE
IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
WIDESPREAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...

A PARTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION.  HIGH TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S...BUT COOLER MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ARE
EXPECTED ON PORTIONS OF THE COAST WITH SEA BREEZES.  UPPER
TROUGH/SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE AND PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  ACROSS OUR REGION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL GENERALLY
RESULT IN DRY WEATHER.  MAY SEE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AN
ISOLATED BRIEF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN FAR NORTHERN ZONES AND
ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST MA LATE TUE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

OTHER THAN AN EVENING ISOLATED SPOT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IN NORTHERN
OR NORTHWEST MA...DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
HOWEVER...POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK.  TIMING UNCERTAIN...BUT SOME
OF THE MODELS SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORKING INTO PARTS OF
THE REGION BETWEEN 9Z AND 12Z.  TIMING IS UNCERTAIN AND THE BULK OF
THE ACTION MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z.  IF ACTIVITY DOES ARRIVE
EARLY...MAY SEE QUITE A BIT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION IN OUR WESTERN
ZONES GIVEN 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -12C AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AROUND 6.5C/KM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WEDNESDAY...SOME STORMS MAY BE
  STRONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
* CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THU
* LOOKING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE FRI THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY
  WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH

OVERVIEW... HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ACROSS THE GT
LAKES WITH SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING INTO NEW ENG WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF WET WEATHER WED AND THU. MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH
THE LOCATION OF A FRONTAL WAVE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. PREVIOUS
RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE QUITE WET HERE THU NIGHT INTO FRI BUT
12Z RUNS ARE NOW SUPPRESSED AND KEEP IT DRY HERE RIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENG.  HOWEVER...GIVEN
PROXIMITY OF A SERIES OF WAVES JUST TO THE SOUTH...CONFIDENCE IN A
DRY FORECAST IS NOT HIGH AS A SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT WOULD MEAN A
COOL RAIN.

WEDNESDAY... INTERESTING SET UP AS SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WILL LIKELY
BE MOVING INTO SNE FIRST THING IN THE MORNING AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND WARM FRONT MOVES UP FROM THE SW. ALL
MODELS ARE GENERATING DECENT SFC INSTABILITY GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG
BY 18Z DUE TO FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS COMBINED WITH
GOOD LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC FORCING AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SUGGESTS
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS SNE DURING
THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. GOOD 500 MB JET PUNCHING INTO
THE REGION RESULTS IN 0-6KM SHEAR OF 40-45 KT WHICH IS RATHER
IMPRESSIVE.  IF INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED WE CANT RULE OUT A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WED MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BUT IT
COULD ALSO JUST BE A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND WEAKER STORMS OF
INSTABILITY IS WEAKER AS WARM FRONT NOT LIKELY TO LIFT TO THE NORTH
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. IT IS POSSIBLE HOWEVER THAT THE COOL AIR ALOFT
ASSOCD WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND RESULTING STEEP LAPSE RATES
HELPS TO MAINTAIN DECENT SFC INSTABILITY. THIS IS SOMETHING THAT
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A
THREAT. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON IS IF A SECOND
ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CAN DEVELOP IN THE INTERIOR AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT.  MODELS ARE DRYING THE COLUMN LATE IN THE DAY SO THERE IS
LIMITED WINDOW FOR A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION. ALSO DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS WEAKENING AFT 18Z. TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 70S BUT IT WILL
BECOME HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 60S.

THURSDAY... COLD FRONT LIKELY GETS HUNG UP ACROSS SNE AS ANOTHER MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE GT LAKES.  MODELS SHOW
DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING WITH UP TO 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND A SURGE
OF HIGHER KI VALUES MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION SO MORE SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH FOCUS MORE IN
CENTRAL AND E NEW ENG. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS 35-40 KT SO IF INSTABILITY IS
REALIZED CANT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS BUT MID LAPSE RATES WILL
BE A LIMITING FACTOR.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST BUT LATEST
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH A
WARMING TREND BY SUNDAY AS A SERIES OF WAVES REMAIN TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH SAT WITH WEAK HIGH PRES IN CONTROL.  HOWEVER...ANY SLIGHT
NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT WOULD RESULT IN COOLER AND WET WEATHER FRI AND
SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

20Z UPDATE...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT...OTHER THAN PERHAPS A FEW HOURS OF PATCHY
GROUND FOG LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  AN ISOLATED
SPOT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES...WITH THE BEST SHOT IN FAR NORTHWEST
MA.

TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.  VFR IN THE EVENING.  MAY SEE SOME
LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH THE BEST SHOT FOR
THIS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  MAY ALSO SEE AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
DAYBREAK...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THAT IS ALSO LOW.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WED...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TSTMS.
RISK OF A FEW STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY.

THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY VFR...BUT SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.

FRI AND SAT...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS...BUT
IT COULD STILL END UP WET IF WAVES OF LOW PRES TRACK FURTHER N.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
WATERS DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING.  HOWEVER...LEFT OVER SWELL OF 3
TO 6 FEET WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES HAVE BEEN TIMED ACCORDINGLY.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.  SOME FOG MAY
DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT WITH SCA SEAS OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS. VSBYS LIMITED IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS AND
AREAS OF FOG.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT SW WINDS BUT LEFTOVER SOUTHERLY SWELL
WILL RESULT IN SCA SEAS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

FRI AND SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. MARGINAL
SCA SEAS POSSIBLE SOUTHERN WATERS ON FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/FRANK
NEAR TERM...KJC/FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK
MARINE...KJC/FRANK



000
FXUS61 KBOX 292313
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
713 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS VERY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS IN NEW ENGLAND. THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH OF THE COAST FRIDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING
MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
710 PM UPDATE...
STILL A FEW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH W AND CENTRAL MA WHICH WILL
DISSIPATE BY 8-9 PM. OTHERWISE...STRATO-CU ARE BEGINNING TO ERODE
AND THIS WILL CONTINUE AS MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW DRYING IN THE
3 TO 6 THOUSAND FOOT LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE. MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.

LOW TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH SOME LOWER
60S POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCATIONS.  PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE
IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
WIDESPREAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...

A PARTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION.  HIGH TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S...BUT COOLER MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ARE
EXPECTED ON PORTIONS OF THE COAST WITH SEA BREEZES.  UPPER
TROUGH/SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE AND PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  ACROSS OUR REGION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL GENERALLY
RESULT IN DRY WEATHER.  MAY SEE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AN
ISOLATED BRIEF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN FAR NORTHERN ZONES AND
ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST MA LATE TUE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

OTHER THAN AN EVENING ISOLATED SPOT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IN NORTHERN
OR NORTHWEST MA...DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
HOWEVER...POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK.  TIMING UNCERTAIN...BUT SOME
OF THE MODELS SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORKING INTO PARTS OF
THE REGION BETWEEN 9Z AND 12Z.  TIMING IS UNCERTAIN AND THE BULK OF
THE ACTION MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z.  IF ACTIVITY DOES ARRIVE
EARLY...MAY SEE QUITE A BIT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION IN OUR WESTERN
ZONES GIVEN 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -12C AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AROUND 6.5C/KM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WEDNESDAY...SOME STORMS MAY BE
  STRONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
* CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THU
* LOOKING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE FRI THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY
  WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH

OVERVIEW... HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ACROSS THE GT
LAKES WITH SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING INTO NEW ENG WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF WET WEATHER WED AND THU. MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH
THE LOCATION OF A FRONTAL WAVE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. PREVIOUS
RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE QUITE WET HERE THU NIGHT INTO FRI BUT
12Z RUNS ARE NOW SUPPRESSED AND KEEP IT DRY HERE RIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENG.  HOWEVER...GIVEN
PROXIMITY OF A SERIES OF WAVES JUST TO THE SOUTH...CONFIDENCE IN A
DRY FORECAST IS NOT HIGH AS A SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT WOULD MEAN A
COOL RAIN.

WEDNESDAY... INTERESTING SET UP AS SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WILL LIKELY
BE MOVING INTO SNE FIRST THING IN THE MORNING AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND WARM FRONT MOVES UP FROM THE SW. ALL
MODELS ARE GENERATING DECENT SFC INSTABILITY GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG
BY 18Z DUE TO FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS COMBINED WITH
GOOD LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC FORCING AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SUGGESTS
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS SNE DURING
THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. GOOD 500 MB JET PUNCHING INTO
THE REGION RESULTS IN 0-6KM SHEAR OF 40-45 KT WHICH IS RATHER
IMPRESSIVE.  IF INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED WE CANT RULE OUT A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WED MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BUT IT
COULD ALSO JUST BE A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND WEAKER STORMS OF
INSTABILITY IS WEAKER AS WARM FRONT NOT LIKELY TO LIFT TO THE NORTH
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. IT IS POSSIBLE HOWEVER THAT THE COOL AIR ALOFT
ASSOCD WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND RESULTING STEEP LAPSE RATES
HELPS TO MAINTAIN DECENT SFC INSTABILITY. THIS IS SOMETHING THAT
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A
THREAT. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON IS IF A SECOND
ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CAN DEVELOP IN THE INTERIOR AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT.  MODELS ARE DRYING THE COLUMN LATE IN THE DAY SO THERE IS
LIMITED WINDOW FOR A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION. ALSO DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS WEAKENING AFT 18Z. TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 70S BUT IT WILL
BECOME HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 60S.

THURSDAY... COLD FRONT LIKELY GETS HUNG UP ACROSS SNE AS ANOTHER MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE GT LAKES.  MODELS SHOW
DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING WITH UP TO 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND A SURGE
OF HIGHER KI VALUES MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION SO MORE SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH FOCUS MORE IN
CENTRAL AND E NEW ENG. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS 35-40 KT SO IF INSTABILITY IS
REALIZED CANT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS BUT MID LAPSE RATES WILL
BE A LIMITING FACTOR.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST BUT LATEST
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH A
WARMING TREND BY SUNDAY AS A SERIES OF WAVES REMAIN TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH SAT WITH WEAK HIGH PRES IN CONTROL.  HOWEVER...ANY SLIGHT
NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT WOULD RESULT IN COOLER AND WET WEATHER FRI AND
SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

20Z UPDATE...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT...OTHER THAN PERHAPS A FEW HOURS OF PATCHY
GROUND FOG LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  AN ISOLATED
SPOT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES...WITH THE BEST SHOT IN FAR NORTHWEST
MA.

TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.  VFR IN THE EVENING.  MAY SEE SOME
LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH THE BEST SHOT FOR
THIS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  MAY ALSO SEE AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
DAYBREAK...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THAT IS ALSO LOW.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WED...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TSTMS.
RISK OF A FEW STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY.

THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY VFR...BUT SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.

FRI AND SAT...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS...BUT
IT COULD STILL END UP WET IF WAVES OF LOW PRES TRACK FURTHER N.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
WATERS DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING.  HOWEVER...LEFT OVER SWELL OF 3
TO 6 FEET WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES HAVE BEEN TIMED ACCORDINGLY.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.  SOME FOG MAY
DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT WITH SCA SEAS OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS. VSBYS LIMITED IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS AND
AREAS OF FOG.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT SW WINDS BUT LEFTOVER SOUTHERLY SWELL
WILL RESULT IN SCA SEAS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

FRI AND SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. MARGINAL
SCA SEAS POSSIBLE SOUTHERN WATERS ON FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/FRANK
NEAR TERM...KJC/FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK
MARINE...KJC/FRANK




000
FXUS61 KBOX 292313
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
713 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS VERY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS IN NEW ENGLAND. THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH OF THE COAST FRIDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING
MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
710 PM UPDATE...
STILL A FEW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH W AND CENTRAL MA WHICH WILL
DISSIPATE BY 8-9 PM. OTHERWISE...STRATO-CU ARE BEGINNING TO ERODE
AND THIS WILL CONTINUE AS MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW DRYING IN THE
3 TO 6 THOUSAND FOOT LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE. MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.

LOW TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH SOME LOWER
60S POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCATIONS.  PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE
IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
WIDESPREAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...

A PARTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION.  HIGH TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S...BUT COOLER MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ARE
EXPECTED ON PORTIONS OF THE COAST WITH SEA BREEZES.  UPPER
TROUGH/SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE AND PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  ACROSS OUR REGION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL GENERALLY
RESULT IN DRY WEATHER.  MAY SEE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AN
ISOLATED BRIEF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN FAR NORTHERN ZONES AND
ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST MA LATE TUE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

OTHER THAN AN EVENING ISOLATED SPOT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IN NORTHERN
OR NORTHWEST MA...DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
HOWEVER...POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK.  TIMING UNCERTAIN...BUT SOME
OF THE MODELS SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORKING INTO PARTS OF
THE REGION BETWEEN 9Z AND 12Z.  TIMING IS UNCERTAIN AND THE BULK OF
THE ACTION MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z.  IF ACTIVITY DOES ARRIVE
EARLY...MAY SEE QUITE A BIT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION IN OUR WESTERN
ZONES GIVEN 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -12C AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AROUND 6.5C/KM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WEDNESDAY...SOME STORMS MAY BE
  STRONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
* CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THU
* LOOKING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE FRI THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY
  WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH

OVERVIEW... HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ACROSS THE GT
LAKES WITH SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING INTO NEW ENG WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF WET WEATHER WED AND THU. MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH
THE LOCATION OF A FRONTAL WAVE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. PREVIOUS
RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE QUITE WET HERE THU NIGHT INTO FRI BUT
12Z RUNS ARE NOW SUPPRESSED AND KEEP IT DRY HERE RIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENG.  HOWEVER...GIVEN
PROXIMITY OF A SERIES OF WAVES JUST TO THE SOUTH...CONFIDENCE IN A
DRY FORECAST IS NOT HIGH AS A SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT WOULD MEAN A
COOL RAIN.

WEDNESDAY... INTERESTING SET UP AS SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WILL LIKELY
BE MOVING INTO SNE FIRST THING IN THE MORNING AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND WARM FRONT MOVES UP FROM THE SW. ALL
MODELS ARE GENERATING DECENT SFC INSTABILITY GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG
BY 18Z DUE TO FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS COMBINED WITH
GOOD LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC FORCING AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SUGGESTS
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS SNE DURING
THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. GOOD 500 MB JET PUNCHING INTO
THE REGION RESULTS IN 0-6KM SHEAR OF 40-45 KT WHICH IS RATHER
IMPRESSIVE.  IF INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED WE CANT RULE OUT A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WED MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BUT IT
COULD ALSO JUST BE A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND WEAKER STORMS OF
INSTABILITY IS WEAKER AS WARM FRONT NOT LIKELY TO LIFT TO THE NORTH
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. IT IS POSSIBLE HOWEVER THAT THE COOL AIR ALOFT
ASSOCD WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND RESULTING STEEP LAPSE RATES
HELPS TO MAINTAIN DECENT SFC INSTABILITY. THIS IS SOMETHING THAT
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A
THREAT. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON IS IF A SECOND
ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CAN DEVELOP IN THE INTERIOR AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT.  MODELS ARE DRYING THE COLUMN LATE IN THE DAY SO THERE IS
LIMITED WINDOW FOR A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION. ALSO DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS WEAKENING AFT 18Z. TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 70S BUT IT WILL
BECOME HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 60S.

THURSDAY... COLD FRONT LIKELY GETS HUNG UP ACROSS SNE AS ANOTHER MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE GT LAKES.  MODELS SHOW
DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING WITH UP TO 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND A SURGE
OF HIGHER KI VALUES MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION SO MORE SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH FOCUS MORE IN
CENTRAL AND E NEW ENG. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS 35-40 KT SO IF INSTABILITY IS
REALIZED CANT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS BUT MID LAPSE RATES WILL
BE A LIMITING FACTOR.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST BUT LATEST
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH A
WARMING TREND BY SUNDAY AS A SERIES OF WAVES REMAIN TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH SAT WITH WEAK HIGH PRES IN CONTROL.  HOWEVER...ANY SLIGHT
NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT WOULD RESULT IN COOLER AND WET WEATHER FRI AND
SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

20Z UPDATE...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT...OTHER THAN PERHAPS A FEW HOURS OF PATCHY
GROUND FOG LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  AN ISOLATED
SPOT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES...WITH THE BEST SHOT IN FAR NORTHWEST
MA.

TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.  VFR IN THE EVENING.  MAY SEE SOME
LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH THE BEST SHOT FOR
THIS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  MAY ALSO SEE AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
DAYBREAK...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THAT IS ALSO LOW.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WED...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TSTMS.
RISK OF A FEW STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY.

THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY VFR...BUT SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.

FRI AND SAT...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS...BUT
IT COULD STILL END UP WET IF WAVES OF LOW PRES TRACK FURTHER N.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
WATERS DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING.  HOWEVER...LEFT OVER SWELL OF 3
TO 6 FEET WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES HAVE BEEN TIMED ACCORDINGLY.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.  SOME FOG MAY
DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT WITH SCA SEAS OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS. VSBYS LIMITED IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS AND
AREAS OF FOG.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT SW WINDS BUT LEFTOVER SOUTHERLY SWELL
WILL RESULT IN SCA SEAS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

FRI AND SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. MARGINAL
SCA SEAS POSSIBLE SOUTHERN WATERS ON FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/FRANK
NEAR TERM...KJC/FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/FRANK
MARINE...KJC/FRANK




000
FXUS61 KBOX 292014
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
413 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS VERY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS IN NEW ENGLAND. THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH OF THE COAST FRIDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING
MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

4 PM UPDATE...

AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE OR TWO ACROSS EASTERN MA WILL EXIT THE REGION
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE...STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW DRYING IN
THE 3 TO 6 THOUSAND FOOT LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE.  WHILE IT MAY NOT
BECOME COMPLETELY CLEAR...SHOULD SEE SKIES AT LEAST BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY.

LOW TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH SOME LOWER
60S POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCATIONS.  PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE
IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
WIDESPREAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TUESDAY...

A PARTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION.  HIGH TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S...BUT COOLER MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ARE
EXPECTED ON PORTIONS OF THE COAST WITH SEA BREEZES.  UPPER
TROUGH/SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE AND PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  ACROSS OUR REGION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL GENERALLY
RESULT IN DRY WEATHER.  MAY SEE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AN
ISOLATED BRIEF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN FAR NORTHERN ZONES AND
ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST MA LATE TUE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

OTHER THAN AN EVENING ISOLATED SPOT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IN NORTHERN
OR NORTHWEST MA...DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
HOWEVER...POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK.  TIMING UNCERTAIN...BUT SOME
OF THE MODELS SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORKING INTO PARTS OF
THE REGION BETWEEN 9Z AND 12Z.  TIMING IS UNCERTAIN AND THE BULK OF
THE ACTION MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z.  IF ACTIVITY DOES ARRIVE
EARLY...MAY SEE QUITE A BIT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION IN OUR WESTERN
ZONES GIVEN 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -12C AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AROUND 6.5C/KM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WEDNESDAY...SOME STORMS MAY BE
  STRONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
* CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THU
* LOOKING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE FRI THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY
  WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH

OVERVIEW... HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ACROSS THE GT
LAKES WITH SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING INTO NEW ENG WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF WET WEATHER WED AND THU. MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH
THE LOCATION OF A FRONTAL WAVE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. PREVIOUS
RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE QUITE WET HERE THU NIGHT INTO FRI BUT
12Z RUNS ARE NOW SUPPRESSED AND KEEP IT DRY HERE RIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENG.  HOWEVER...GIVEN
PROXIMITY OF A SERIES OF WAVES JUST TO THE SOUTH...CONFIDENCE IN A
DRY FORECAST IS NOT HIGH AS A SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT WOULD MEAN A
COOL RAIN.

WEDNESDAY... INTERESTING SET UP AS SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WILL LIKELY
BE MOVING INTO SNE FIRST THING IN THE MORNING AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND WARM FRONT MOVES UP FROM THE SW. ALL
MODELS ARE GENERATING DECENT SFC INSTABILITY GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG
BY 18Z DUE TO FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS COMBINED WITH
GOOD LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC FORCING AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SUGGESTS
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS SNE DURING
THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. GOOD 500 MB JET PUNCHING INTO
THE REGION RESULTS IN 0-6KM SHEAR OF 40-45 KT WHICH IS RATHER
IMPRESSIVE.  IF INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED WE CANT RULE OUT A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WED MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BUT IT
COULD ALSO JUST BE A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND WEAKER STORMS OF
INSTABILITY IS WEAKER AS WARM FRONT NOT LIKELY TO LIFT TO THE NORTH
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. IT IS POSSIBLE HOWEVER THAT THE COOL AIR ALOFT
ASSOCD WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND RESULTING STEEP LAPSE RATES
HELPS TO MAINTAIN DECENT SFC INSTABILITY. THIS IS SOMETHING THAT
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A
THREAT. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON IS IF A SECOND
ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CAN DEVELOP IN THE INTERIOR AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT.  MODELS ARE DRYING THE COLUMN LATE IN THE DAY SO THERE IS
LIMITED WINDOW FOR A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION. ALSO DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS WEAKENING AFT 18Z. TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 70S BUT IT WILL
BECOME HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 60S.

THURSDAY... COLD FRONT LIKELY GETS HUNG UP ACROSS SNE AS ANOTHER MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE GT LAKES.  MODELS SHOW
DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING WITH UP TO 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND A SURGE
OF HIGHER KI VALUES MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION SO MORE SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH FOCUS MORE IN
CENTRAL AND E NEW ENG. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS 35-40 KT SO IF INSTABILITY IS
REALIZED CANT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS BUT MID LAPSE RATES WILL
BE A LIMITING FACTOR.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST BUT LATEST
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH A
WARMING TREND BY SUNDAY AS A SERIES OF WAVES REMAIN TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH SAT WITH WEAK HIGH PRES IN CONTROL.  HOWEVER...ANY SLIGHT
NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT WOULD RESULT IN COOLER AND WET WEATHER FRI AND
SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

20Z UPDATE...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANY LEFT OVER MVFR CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR
EARLY THIS EVENING.  VFR CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT...OTHER THAN PERHAPS A FEW HOURS OF PATCHY GROUND FOG LATE
IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  AN ISOLATED
SPOT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES...WITH THE BEST SHOT IN FAR NORTHWEST
MA.

TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.  VFR IN THE EVENING.  MAY SEE SOME
LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH THE BEST SHOT FOR
THIS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  MAY ALSO SEE AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
DAYBREAK...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THAT IS ALSO LOW.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WED...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TSTMS.
RISK OF A FEW STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY.

THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY VFR...BUT SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.

FRI AND SAT...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS...BUT
IT COULD STILL END UP WET IF WAVES OF LOW PRES TRACK FURTHER N.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
WATERS DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING.  HOWEVER...LEFT OVER SWELL OF 3
TO 6 FEET WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES HAVE BEEN TIMED ACCORDINGLY.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.  SOME FOG MAY
DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT WITH SCA SEAS OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS. VSBYS LIMITED IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS AND
AREAS OF FOG.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT SW WINDS BUT LEFTOVER SOUTHERLY SWELL
WILL RESULT IN SCA SEAS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

FRI AND SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. MARGINAL
SCA SEAS POSSIBLE SOUTHERN WATERS ON FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/KJC
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...FRANK/KJC
MARINE...FRANK/KJC



000
FXUS61 KBOX 292014
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
413 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS VERY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS IN NEW ENGLAND. THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH OF THE COAST FRIDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING
MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

4 PM UPDATE...

AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE OR TWO ACROSS EASTERN MA WILL EXIT THE REGION
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE...STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW DRYING IN
THE 3 TO 6 THOUSAND FOOT LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE.  WHILE IT MAY NOT
BECOME COMPLETELY CLEAR...SHOULD SEE SKIES AT LEAST BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY.

LOW TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH SOME LOWER
60S POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCATIONS.  PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE
IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
WIDESPREAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TUESDAY...

A PARTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION.  HIGH TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S...BUT COOLER MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ARE
EXPECTED ON PORTIONS OF THE COAST WITH SEA BREEZES.  UPPER
TROUGH/SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE AND PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  ACROSS OUR REGION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL GENERALLY
RESULT IN DRY WEATHER.  MAY SEE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AN
ISOLATED BRIEF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN FAR NORTHERN ZONES AND
ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST MA LATE TUE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

OTHER THAN AN EVENING ISOLATED SPOT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IN NORTHERN
OR NORTHWEST MA...DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
HOWEVER...POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK.  TIMING UNCERTAIN...BUT SOME
OF THE MODELS SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORKING INTO PARTS OF
THE REGION BETWEEN 9Z AND 12Z.  TIMING IS UNCERTAIN AND THE BULK OF
THE ACTION MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z.  IF ACTIVITY DOES ARRIVE
EARLY...MAY SEE QUITE A BIT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION IN OUR WESTERN
ZONES GIVEN 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -12C AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AROUND 6.5C/KM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WEDNESDAY...SOME STORMS MAY BE
  STRONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
* CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THU
* LOOKING MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE FRI THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY
  WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH

OVERVIEW... HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ACROSS THE GT
LAKES WITH SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING INTO NEW ENG WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF WET WEATHER WED AND THU. MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH
THE LOCATION OF A FRONTAL WAVE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. PREVIOUS
RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE QUITE WET HERE THU NIGHT INTO FRI BUT
12Z RUNS ARE NOW SUPPRESSED AND KEEP IT DRY HERE RIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENG.  HOWEVER...GIVEN
PROXIMITY OF A SERIES OF WAVES JUST TO THE SOUTH...CONFIDENCE IN A
DRY FORECAST IS NOT HIGH AS A SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT WOULD MEAN A
COOL RAIN.

WEDNESDAY... INTERESTING SET UP AS SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WILL LIKELY
BE MOVING INTO SNE FIRST THING IN THE MORNING AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND WARM FRONT MOVES UP FROM THE SW. ALL
MODELS ARE GENERATING DECENT SFC INSTABILITY GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG
BY 18Z DUE TO FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS COMBINED WITH
GOOD LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC FORCING AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SUGGESTS
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS SNE DURING
THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. GOOD 500 MB JET PUNCHING INTO
THE REGION RESULTS IN 0-6KM SHEAR OF 40-45 KT WHICH IS RATHER
IMPRESSIVE.  IF INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED WE CANT RULE OUT A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WED MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BUT IT
COULD ALSO JUST BE A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND WEAKER STORMS OF
INSTABILITY IS WEAKER AS WARM FRONT NOT LIKELY TO LIFT TO THE NORTH
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. IT IS POSSIBLE HOWEVER THAT THE COOL AIR ALOFT
ASSOCD WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND RESULTING STEEP LAPSE RATES
HELPS TO MAINTAIN DECENT SFC INSTABILITY. THIS IS SOMETHING THAT
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A
THREAT. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON IS IF A SECOND
ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CAN DEVELOP IN THE INTERIOR AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT.  MODELS ARE DRYING THE COLUMN LATE IN THE DAY SO THERE IS
LIMITED WINDOW FOR A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION. ALSO DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS WEAKENING AFT 18Z. TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 70S BUT IT WILL
BECOME HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 60S.

THURSDAY... COLD FRONT LIKELY GETS HUNG UP ACROSS SNE AS ANOTHER MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE GT LAKES.  MODELS SHOW
DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING WITH UP TO 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND A SURGE
OF HIGHER KI VALUES MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION SO MORE SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH FOCUS MORE IN
CENTRAL AND E NEW ENG. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS 35-40 KT SO IF INSTABILITY IS
REALIZED CANT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS BUT MID LAPSE RATES WILL
BE A LIMITING FACTOR.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST BUT LATEST
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH A
WARMING TREND BY SUNDAY AS A SERIES OF WAVES REMAIN TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH SAT WITH WEAK HIGH PRES IN CONTROL.  HOWEVER...ANY SLIGHT
NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT WOULD RESULT IN COOLER AND WET WEATHER FRI AND
SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

20Z UPDATE...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANY LEFT OVER MVFR CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR
EARLY THIS EVENING.  VFR CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT...OTHER THAN PERHAPS A FEW HOURS OF PATCHY GROUND FOG LATE
IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  AN ISOLATED
SPOT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES...WITH THE BEST SHOT IN FAR NORTHWEST
MA.

TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.  VFR IN THE EVENING.  MAY SEE SOME
LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH THE BEST SHOT FOR
THIS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  MAY ALSO SEE AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
DAYBREAK...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THAT IS ALSO LOW.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WED...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TSTMS.
RISK OF A FEW STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY.

THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MOSTLY VFR...BUT SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.

FRI AND SAT...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS...BUT
IT COULD STILL END UP WET IF WAVES OF LOW PRES TRACK FURTHER N.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
WATERS DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING.  HOWEVER...LEFT OVER SWELL OF 3
TO 6 FEET WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES HAVE BEEN TIMED ACCORDINGLY.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.  SOME FOG MAY
DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT WITH SCA SEAS OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS. VSBYS LIMITED IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS AND
AREAS OF FOG.

THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT SW WINDS BUT LEFTOVER SOUTHERLY SWELL
WILL RESULT IN SCA SEAS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

FRI AND SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. MARGINAL
SCA SEAS POSSIBLE SOUTHERN WATERS ON FRI.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/KJC
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...FRANK/KJC
MARINE...FRANK/KJC




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291757
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
157 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN NORMAL. WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOME STORMS WEDNESDAY MAY
BE STRONG ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. BEHIND THE FRONT...
DRIER AND NEAR SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM MAY BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND/OR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

155 PM UPDATE...

AN ABUNDANCE OF STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS CONTINUED TO AFFECT THE REGION
AT MID AFTERNOON...BUT THERE WERE A FEW BRIEF PEEKS OF SUN AT TIMES.
MAY SEE A BRIEF ISOLATED SPRINKLE/LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS OUR INTERIOR
ZONES BASED ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY...BUT DRY WEATHER DOMINATES.
SHOULD SEE SOME MORE PEEKS OF SUN DEVELOP INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...SO MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE HIGHS EVENTUALLY REACH
INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.

BEACH FORECAST...

LEFT OVER SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK
FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ON SOME OCEAN EXPOSED BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF
SOME PATCHY FOG AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WAA AND MID-LEVEL
RIDGING MOVES OVER THE AREA.

TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE ON TUESDAY AS MID-LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS. ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH THINK THAT MOST OF THE REGION WILL
REMAIN DRY...WESTERN MASS COULD SEE A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM ALONG WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70 TO
LOW 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
  WEDNESDAY...SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
* DRY AND SEASONABLE THURSDAY
* RISK OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS AGAIN FRI/SAT - INDEPENDENCE DAY

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THIS PERIOD WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER AT
TIMES IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS EVERY 2 OR 3 DAYS THIS PERIOD.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE CURRENT HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA PERSISTING. ONLY CHANGE HERE IS THAT THE WESTERN CONUS/
CANADA RIDGE RETROGRADES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS SHIFTS THE
DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES A BIT FARTHER WEST. HOWEVER
AS NEW RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER GREENLAND AND THE DAVIS STRAIT...
/SUPPORTING A NEGATIVE NAO/ TROUGHING IS REESTABLISHED OVER ONTARIO
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SETUP SUPPORTS CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...
YIELDING THE RISK SHOWERS/T-STORMS EVERY 2 OR 3 DAYS. IN ADDITION
THIS ACTIVE AND SUPPRESSED NORTHERN STREAM JET WILL PRECLUDE
EXCESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY FROM ADVECTING NORTHEAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THUS TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL.
TELECONNECTIONS FROM BOTH THE EPS AND GEFS SUPPORT THIS PATTERN
WITH BOTH ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS IN AGREEMENT ON A NEGATIVE NAO/AO AND
EPO ALONG WITH A POSITIVE PNA. THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE ABOVE
AVERAGE THIS PERIOD.

DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER...

TUE NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
APPROACHES WITH WARM FRONTAL CONVECTION LIKELY LATE TUE NIGHT. MULTI
MODEL BLEND OFFERS LIKELY POPS TOWARD 12Z WED. THUS WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER LIKELY. THEN ON WED FORECAST DILEMMA
BECOMES WILL WARM SECTOR AIRMASS OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND? IF
SHALLOW COOL AIR IS DISLODGED AND LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA THE RISK
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXIST. HOWEVER IF SHALLOW COOL AIR IS
MORE STUBBORN AND PERSIST OVER THE AREA THEN SUBSEVERE STORMS ARE
MORE LIKELY. AT THIS TIME RANGE TOO EARLY TO SAY WITH ANY CERTAINTY.
NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN GOOD SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING/DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
AND MARGINAL TO MODEST INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND T-STORMS SHOULD BE
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. THUS WILL SIDE WITH LKLY POPS FROM A MULTI-MODEL
BLEND.

THURSDAY...SHOULD SEE A DRYING TREND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT.
ALTHOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WHICH MAY CLIP CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA WITH
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS. THUS LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

FRI/SAT/SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON NORTHERN STREAM REMAINING AMPLIFIED
AND ACTIVE THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING
AND DEPTH OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND ATTENDING COLD FRONTS.
ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING NORTHERN STREAM MAY BE SUPPRESSED ENOUGH FOR
MUCH OF THE CONVECTION TO REMAIN SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF NEW
ENGLAND. NEVERTHELESS HIGH UNCERTAINTY/LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
HERE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

18Z UPDATE...

THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LEFT OVER MVFR CIGS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 20Z OR SO...DESPITE A BROKEN DECK OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT MAY SEE A FEW
HOURS OF PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  AN ISOLATED
SPOT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
OUR PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES...WITH THE BEST SHOT IN FAR
NORTHWEST MA.

TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.  VFR IN THE EVENING.  MAY SEE SOME
LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE IN SOME LOCATIONS...BUT WHETHER THIS HAPPENS
OR NOT AND POTENTIAL AREAL COVERAGE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.  MAY ALSO SEE
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WORK INTO WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TOWARD DAYBREAK...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THAT IS ALSO LOW.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

WED...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TSTMS.
RISK OF A FEW STRONG STORMS WED. IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.

THU AND FRI...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW WILL SAY VFR BUT COULD
SEE MVFR THU ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA IN POSSIBLE SHOWERS. EVEN
MORE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /INTO TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES FOR SEAS WILL CONTINUE FROM
LEFTOVER SWELL THROUGH TODAY. COULD ALSO SEE 25 KTS ALONG THE NEAR
SHORE SOUTHERN WATERS. SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS SWELL
WEAKENS. OTHERWISE LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT SWITCHING TO THE SOUTH BY
TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUES NIGHT AND WED...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS LIKELY
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. VSBY LIMITED IN AREAS OF
FOG/SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS. MODEST S-SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

THU AND FRI...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH OFFSHORE
COLD FRONT EXITS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291757
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
157 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN NORMAL. WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOME STORMS WEDNESDAY MAY
BE STRONG ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. BEHIND THE FRONT...
DRIER AND NEAR SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM MAY BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND/OR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

155 PM UPDATE...

AN ABUNDANCE OF STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS CONTINUED TO AFFECT THE REGION
AT MID AFTERNOON...BUT THERE WERE A FEW BRIEF PEEKS OF SUN AT TIMES.
MAY SEE A BRIEF ISOLATED SPRINKLE/LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS OUR INTERIOR
ZONES BASED ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY...BUT DRY WEATHER DOMINATES.
SHOULD SEE SOME MORE PEEKS OF SUN DEVELOP INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...SO MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE HIGHS EVENTUALLY REACH
INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.

BEACH FORECAST...

LEFT OVER SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK
FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ON SOME OCEAN EXPOSED BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF
SOME PATCHY FOG AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WAA AND MID-LEVEL
RIDGING MOVES OVER THE AREA.

TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE ON TUESDAY AS MID-LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS. ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH THINK THAT MOST OF THE REGION WILL
REMAIN DRY...WESTERN MASS COULD SEE A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM ALONG WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70 TO
LOW 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
  WEDNESDAY...SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
* DRY AND SEASONABLE THURSDAY
* RISK OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS AGAIN FRI/SAT - INDEPENDENCE DAY

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THIS PERIOD WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER AT
TIMES IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS EVERY 2 OR 3 DAYS THIS PERIOD.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE CURRENT HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA PERSISTING. ONLY CHANGE HERE IS THAT THE WESTERN CONUS/
CANADA RIDGE RETROGRADES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS SHIFTS THE
DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES A BIT FARTHER WEST. HOWEVER
AS NEW RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER GREENLAND AND THE DAVIS STRAIT...
/SUPPORTING A NEGATIVE NAO/ TROUGHING IS REESTABLISHED OVER ONTARIO
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SETUP SUPPORTS CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...
YIELDING THE RISK SHOWERS/T-STORMS EVERY 2 OR 3 DAYS. IN ADDITION
THIS ACTIVE AND SUPPRESSED NORTHERN STREAM JET WILL PRECLUDE
EXCESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY FROM ADVECTING NORTHEAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THUS TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL.
TELECONNECTIONS FROM BOTH THE EPS AND GEFS SUPPORT THIS PATTERN
WITH BOTH ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS IN AGREEMENT ON A NEGATIVE NAO/AO AND
EPO ALONG WITH A POSITIVE PNA. THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE ABOVE
AVERAGE THIS PERIOD.

DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER...

TUE NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
APPROACHES WITH WARM FRONTAL CONVECTION LIKELY LATE TUE NIGHT. MULTI
MODEL BLEND OFFERS LIKELY POPS TOWARD 12Z WED. THUS WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER LIKELY. THEN ON WED FORECAST DILEMMA
BECOMES WILL WARM SECTOR AIRMASS OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND? IF
SHALLOW COOL AIR IS DISLODGED AND LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA THE RISK
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXIST. HOWEVER IF SHALLOW COOL AIR IS
MORE STUBBORN AND PERSIST OVER THE AREA THEN SUBSEVERE STORMS ARE
MORE LIKELY. AT THIS TIME RANGE TOO EARLY TO SAY WITH ANY CERTAINTY.
NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN GOOD SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING/DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
AND MARGINAL TO MODEST INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND T-STORMS SHOULD BE
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. THUS WILL SIDE WITH LKLY POPS FROM A MULTI-MODEL
BLEND.

THURSDAY...SHOULD SEE A DRYING TREND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT.
ALTHOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WHICH MAY CLIP CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA WITH
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS. THUS LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

FRI/SAT/SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON NORTHERN STREAM REMAINING AMPLIFIED
AND ACTIVE THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING
AND DEPTH OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND ATTENDING COLD FRONTS.
ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING NORTHERN STREAM MAY BE SUPPRESSED ENOUGH FOR
MUCH OF THE CONVECTION TO REMAIN SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF NEW
ENGLAND. NEVERTHELESS HIGH UNCERTAINTY/LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
HERE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

18Z UPDATE...

THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LEFT OVER MVFR CIGS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 20Z OR SO...DESPITE A BROKEN DECK OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT MAY SEE A FEW
HOURS OF PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  AN ISOLATED
SPOT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
OUR PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES...WITH THE BEST SHOT IN FAR
NORTHWEST MA.

TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.  VFR IN THE EVENING.  MAY SEE SOME
LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE IN SOME LOCATIONS...BUT WHETHER THIS HAPPENS
OR NOT AND POTENTIAL AREAL COVERAGE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.  MAY ALSO SEE
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WORK INTO WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TOWARD DAYBREAK...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THAT IS ALSO LOW.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

WED...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TSTMS.
RISK OF A FEW STRONG STORMS WED. IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.

THU AND FRI...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW WILL SAY VFR BUT COULD
SEE MVFR THU ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA IN POSSIBLE SHOWERS. EVEN
MORE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /INTO TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES FOR SEAS WILL CONTINUE FROM
LEFTOVER SWELL THROUGH TODAY. COULD ALSO SEE 25 KTS ALONG THE NEAR
SHORE SOUTHERN WATERS. SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS SWELL
WEAKENS. OTHERWISE LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT SWITCHING TO THE SOUTH BY
TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUES NIGHT AND WED...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS LIKELY
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. VSBY LIMITED IN AREAS OF
FOG/SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS. MODEST S-SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

THU AND FRI...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH OFFSHORE
COLD FRONT EXITS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 291757
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
157 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN NORMAL. WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOME STORMS WEDNESDAY MAY
BE STRONG ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. BEHIND THE FRONT...
DRIER AND NEAR SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM MAY BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND/OR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

155 PM UPDATE...

AN ABUNDANCE OF STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS CONTINUED TO AFFECT THE REGION
AT MID AFTERNOON...BUT THERE WERE A FEW BRIEF PEEKS OF SUN AT TIMES.
MAY SEE A BRIEF ISOLATED SPRINKLE/LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS OUR INTERIOR
ZONES BASED ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY...BUT DRY WEATHER DOMINATES.
SHOULD SEE SOME MORE PEEKS OF SUN DEVELOP INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...SO MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE HIGHS EVENTUALLY REACH
INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.

BEACH FORECAST...

LEFT OVER SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK
FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ON SOME OCEAN EXPOSED BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF
SOME PATCHY FOG AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WAA AND MID-LEVEL
RIDGING MOVES OVER THE AREA.

TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE ON TUESDAY AS MID-LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS. ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH THINK THAT MOST OF THE REGION WILL
REMAIN DRY...WESTERN MASS COULD SEE A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM ALONG WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70 TO
LOW 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
  WEDNESDAY...SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
* DRY AND SEASONABLE THURSDAY
* RISK OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS AGAIN FRI/SAT - INDEPENDENCE DAY

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THIS PERIOD WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER AT
TIMES IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS EVERY 2 OR 3 DAYS THIS PERIOD.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE CURRENT HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA PERSISTING. ONLY CHANGE HERE IS THAT THE WESTERN CONUS/
CANADA RIDGE RETROGRADES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS SHIFTS THE
DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES A BIT FARTHER WEST. HOWEVER
AS NEW RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER GREENLAND AND THE DAVIS STRAIT...
/SUPPORTING A NEGATIVE NAO/ TROUGHING IS REESTABLISHED OVER ONTARIO
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SETUP SUPPORTS CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...
YIELDING THE RISK SHOWERS/T-STORMS EVERY 2 OR 3 DAYS. IN ADDITION
THIS ACTIVE AND SUPPRESSED NORTHERN STREAM JET WILL PRECLUDE
EXCESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY FROM ADVECTING NORTHEAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THUS TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL.
TELECONNECTIONS FROM BOTH THE EPS AND GEFS SUPPORT THIS PATTERN
WITH BOTH ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS IN AGREEMENT ON A NEGATIVE NAO/AO AND
EPO ALONG WITH A POSITIVE PNA. THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE ABOVE
AVERAGE THIS PERIOD.

DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER...

TUE NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
APPROACHES WITH WARM FRONTAL CONVECTION LIKELY LATE TUE NIGHT. MULTI
MODEL BLEND OFFERS LIKELY POPS TOWARD 12Z WED. THUS WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER LIKELY. THEN ON WED FORECAST DILEMMA
BECOMES WILL WARM SECTOR AIRMASS OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND? IF
SHALLOW COOL AIR IS DISLODGED AND LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA THE RISK
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXIST. HOWEVER IF SHALLOW COOL AIR IS
MORE STUBBORN AND PERSIST OVER THE AREA THEN SUBSEVERE STORMS ARE
MORE LIKELY. AT THIS TIME RANGE TOO EARLY TO SAY WITH ANY CERTAINTY.
NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN GOOD SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING/DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
AND MARGINAL TO MODEST INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND T-STORMS SHOULD BE
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. THUS WILL SIDE WITH LKLY POPS FROM A MULTI-MODEL
BLEND.

THURSDAY...SHOULD SEE A DRYING TREND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT.
ALTHOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WHICH MAY CLIP CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA WITH
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS. THUS LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

FRI/SAT/SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON NORTHERN STREAM REMAINING AMPLIFIED
AND ACTIVE THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING
AND DEPTH OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND ATTENDING COLD FRONTS.
ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING NORTHERN STREAM MAY BE SUPPRESSED ENOUGH FOR
MUCH OF THE CONVECTION TO REMAIN SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF NEW
ENGLAND. NEVERTHELESS HIGH UNCERTAINTY/LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
HERE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

18Z UPDATE...

THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LEFT OVER MVFR CIGS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 20Z OR SO...DESPITE A BROKEN DECK OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT MAY SEE A FEW
HOURS OF PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  AN ISOLATED
SPOT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
OUR PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES...WITH THE BEST SHOT IN FAR
NORTHWEST MA.

TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.  VFR IN THE EVENING.  MAY SEE SOME
LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE IN SOME LOCATIONS...BUT WHETHER THIS HAPPENS
OR NOT AND POTENTIAL AREAL COVERAGE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.  MAY ALSO SEE
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WORK INTO WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TOWARD DAYBREAK...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THAT IS ALSO LOW.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

WED...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TSTMS.
RISK OF A FEW STRONG STORMS WED. IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.

THU AND FRI...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW WILL SAY VFR BUT COULD
SEE MVFR THU ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA IN POSSIBLE SHOWERS. EVEN
MORE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /INTO TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES FOR SEAS WILL CONTINUE FROM
LEFTOVER SWELL THROUGH TODAY. COULD ALSO SEE 25 KTS ALONG THE NEAR
SHORE SOUTHERN WATERS. SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS SWELL
WEAKENS. OTHERWISE LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT SWITCHING TO THE SOUTH BY
TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUES NIGHT AND WED...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS LIKELY
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. VSBY LIMITED IN AREAS OF
FOG/SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS. MODEST S-SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

THU AND FRI...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH OFFSHORE
COLD FRONT EXITS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291757
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
157 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN NORMAL. WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOME STORMS WEDNESDAY MAY
BE STRONG ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. BEHIND THE FRONT...
DRIER AND NEAR SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM MAY BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND/OR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

155 PM UPDATE...

AN ABUNDANCE OF STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS CONTINUED TO AFFECT THE REGION
AT MID AFTERNOON...BUT THERE WERE A FEW BRIEF PEEKS OF SUN AT TIMES.
MAY SEE A BRIEF ISOLATED SPRINKLE/LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS OUR INTERIOR
ZONES BASED ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY...BUT DRY WEATHER DOMINATES.
SHOULD SEE SOME MORE PEEKS OF SUN DEVELOP INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...SO MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE HIGHS EVENTUALLY REACH
INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.

BEACH FORECAST...

LEFT OVER SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK
FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ON SOME OCEAN EXPOSED BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF
SOME PATCHY FOG AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WAA AND MID-LEVEL
RIDGING MOVES OVER THE AREA.

TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE ON TUESDAY AS MID-LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS. ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH THINK THAT MOST OF THE REGION WILL
REMAIN DRY...WESTERN MASS COULD SEE A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM ALONG WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70 TO
LOW 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
  WEDNESDAY...SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
* DRY AND SEASONABLE THURSDAY
* RISK OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS AGAIN FRI/SAT - INDEPENDENCE DAY

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THIS PERIOD WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER AT
TIMES IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS EVERY 2 OR 3 DAYS THIS PERIOD.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE CURRENT HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA PERSISTING. ONLY CHANGE HERE IS THAT THE WESTERN CONUS/
CANADA RIDGE RETROGRADES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS SHIFTS THE
DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES A BIT FARTHER WEST. HOWEVER
AS NEW RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER GREENLAND AND THE DAVIS STRAIT...
/SUPPORTING A NEGATIVE NAO/ TROUGHING IS REESTABLISHED OVER ONTARIO
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SETUP SUPPORTS CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...
YIELDING THE RISK SHOWERS/T-STORMS EVERY 2 OR 3 DAYS. IN ADDITION
THIS ACTIVE AND SUPPRESSED NORTHERN STREAM JET WILL PRECLUDE
EXCESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY FROM ADVECTING NORTHEAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THUS TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL.
TELECONNECTIONS FROM BOTH THE EPS AND GEFS SUPPORT THIS PATTERN
WITH BOTH ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS IN AGREEMENT ON A NEGATIVE NAO/AO AND
EPO ALONG WITH A POSITIVE PNA. THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE ABOVE
AVERAGE THIS PERIOD.

DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER...

TUE NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
APPROACHES WITH WARM FRONTAL CONVECTION LIKELY LATE TUE NIGHT. MULTI
MODEL BLEND OFFERS LIKELY POPS TOWARD 12Z WED. THUS WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER LIKELY. THEN ON WED FORECAST DILEMMA
BECOMES WILL WARM SECTOR AIRMASS OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND? IF
SHALLOW COOL AIR IS DISLODGED AND LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA THE RISK
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXIST. HOWEVER IF SHALLOW COOL AIR IS
MORE STUBBORN AND PERSIST OVER THE AREA THEN SUBSEVERE STORMS ARE
MORE LIKELY. AT THIS TIME RANGE TOO EARLY TO SAY WITH ANY CERTAINTY.
NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN GOOD SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING/DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
AND MARGINAL TO MODEST INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND T-STORMS SHOULD BE
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. THUS WILL SIDE WITH LKLY POPS FROM A MULTI-MODEL
BLEND.

THURSDAY...SHOULD SEE A DRYING TREND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT.
ALTHOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WHICH MAY CLIP CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA WITH
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS. THUS LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

FRI/SAT/SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON NORTHERN STREAM REMAINING AMPLIFIED
AND ACTIVE THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING
AND DEPTH OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND ATTENDING COLD FRONTS.
ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING NORTHERN STREAM MAY BE SUPPRESSED ENOUGH FOR
MUCH OF THE CONVECTION TO REMAIN SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF NEW
ENGLAND. NEVERTHELESS HIGH UNCERTAINTY/LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
HERE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

18Z UPDATE...

THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LEFT OVER MVFR CIGS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 20Z OR SO...DESPITE A BROKEN DECK OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT MAY SEE A FEW
HOURS OF PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  AN ISOLATED
SPOT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
OUR PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES...WITH THE BEST SHOT IN FAR
NORTHWEST MA.

TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.  VFR IN THE EVENING.  MAY SEE SOME
LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE IN SOME LOCATIONS...BUT WHETHER THIS HAPPENS
OR NOT AND POTENTIAL AREAL COVERAGE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.  MAY ALSO SEE
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WORK INTO WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TOWARD DAYBREAK...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THAT IS ALSO LOW.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

WED...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TSTMS.
RISK OF A FEW STRONG STORMS WED. IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.

THU AND FRI...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW WILL SAY VFR BUT COULD
SEE MVFR THU ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA IN POSSIBLE SHOWERS. EVEN
MORE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /INTO TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES FOR SEAS WILL CONTINUE FROM
LEFTOVER SWELL THROUGH TODAY. COULD ALSO SEE 25 KTS ALONG THE NEAR
SHORE SOUTHERN WATERS. SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS SWELL
WEAKENS. OTHERWISE LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT SWITCHING TO THE SOUTH BY
TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUES NIGHT AND WED...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS LIKELY
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. VSBY LIMITED IN AREAS OF
FOG/SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS. MODEST S-SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

THU AND FRI...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH OFFSHORE
COLD FRONT EXITS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291757
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
157 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN NORMAL. WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOME STORMS WEDNESDAY MAY
BE STRONG ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. BEHIND THE FRONT...
DRIER AND NEAR SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM MAY BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND/OR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

155 PM UPDATE...

AN ABUNDANCE OF STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS CONTINUED TO AFFECT THE REGION
AT MID AFTERNOON...BUT THERE WERE A FEW BRIEF PEEKS OF SUN AT TIMES.
MAY SEE A BRIEF ISOLATED SPRINKLE/LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS OUR INTERIOR
ZONES BASED ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY...BUT DRY WEATHER DOMINATES.
SHOULD SEE SOME MORE PEEKS OF SUN DEVELOP INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...SO MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE HIGHS EVENTUALLY REACH
INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.

BEACH FORECAST...

LEFT OVER SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK
FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ON SOME OCEAN EXPOSED BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF
SOME PATCHY FOG AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WAA AND MID-LEVEL
RIDGING MOVES OVER THE AREA.

TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE ON TUESDAY AS MID-LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS. ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH THINK THAT MOST OF THE REGION WILL
REMAIN DRY...WESTERN MASS COULD SEE A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM ALONG WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70 TO
LOW 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
  WEDNESDAY...SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
* DRY AND SEASONABLE THURSDAY
* RISK OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS AGAIN FRI/SAT - INDEPENDENCE DAY

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THIS PERIOD WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER AT
TIMES IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS EVERY 2 OR 3 DAYS THIS PERIOD.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE CURRENT HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA PERSISTING. ONLY CHANGE HERE IS THAT THE WESTERN CONUS/
CANADA RIDGE RETROGRADES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS SHIFTS THE
DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES A BIT FARTHER WEST. HOWEVER
AS NEW RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER GREENLAND AND THE DAVIS STRAIT...
/SUPPORTING A NEGATIVE NAO/ TROUGHING IS REESTABLISHED OVER ONTARIO
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SETUP SUPPORTS CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...
YIELDING THE RISK SHOWERS/T-STORMS EVERY 2 OR 3 DAYS. IN ADDITION
THIS ACTIVE AND SUPPRESSED NORTHERN STREAM JET WILL PRECLUDE
EXCESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY FROM ADVECTING NORTHEAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THUS TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL.
TELECONNECTIONS FROM BOTH THE EPS AND GEFS SUPPORT THIS PATTERN
WITH BOTH ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS IN AGREEMENT ON A NEGATIVE NAO/AO AND
EPO ALONG WITH A POSITIVE PNA. THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE ABOVE
AVERAGE THIS PERIOD.

DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER...

TUE NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
APPROACHES WITH WARM FRONTAL CONVECTION LIKELY LATE TUE NIGHT. MULTI
MODEL BLEND OFFERS LIKELY POPS TOWARD 12Z WED. THUS WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER LIKELY. THEN ON WED FORECAST DILEMMA
BECOMES WILL WARM SECTOR AIRMASS OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND? IF
SHALLOW COOL AIR IS DISLODGED AND LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA THE RISK
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXIST. HOWEVER IF SHALLOW COOL AIR IS
MORE STUBBORN AND PERSIST OVER THE AREA THEN SUBSEVERE STORMS ARE
MORE LIKELY. AT THIS TIME RANGE TOO EARLY TO SAY WITH ANY CERTAINTY.
NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN GOOD SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING/DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
AND MARGINAL TO MODEST INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND T-STORMS SHOULD BE
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. THUS WILL SIDE WITH LKLY POPS FROM A MULTI-MODEL
BLEND.

THURSDAY...SHOULD SEE A DRYING TREND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT.
ALTHOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WHICH MAY CLIP CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA WITH
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS. THUS LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

FRI/SAT/SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON NORTHERN STREAM REMAINING AMPLIFIED
AND ACTIVE THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING
AND DEPTH OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND ATTENDING COLD FRONTS.
ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING NORTHERN STREAM MAY BE SUPPRESSED ENOUGH FOR
MUCH OF THE CONVECTION TO REMAIN SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF NEW
ENGLAND. NEVERTHELESS HIGH UNCERTAINTY/LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
HERE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

18Z UPDATE...

THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LEFT OVER MVFR CIGS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 20Z OR SO...DESPITE A BROKEN DECK OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT MAY SEE A FEW
HOURS OF PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  AN ISOLATED
SPOT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
OUR PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES...WITH THE BEST SHOT IN FAR
NORTHWEST MA.

TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.  VFR IN THE EVENING.  MAY SEE SOME
LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE IN SOME LOCATIONS...BUT WHETHER THIS HAPPENS
OR NOT AND POTENTIAL AREAL COVERAGE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.  MAY ALSO SEE
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WORK INTO WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TOWARD DAYBREAK...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THAT IS ALSO LOW.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

WED...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TSTMS.
RISK OF A FEW STRONG STORMS WED. IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.

THU AND FRI...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW WILL SAY VFR BUT COULD
SEE MVFR THU ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA IN POSSIBLE SHOWERS. EVEN
MORE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /INTO TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES FOR SEAS WILL CONTINUE FROM
LEFTOVER SWELL THROUGH TODAY. COULD ALSO SEE 25 KTS ALONG THE NEAR
SHORE SOUTHERN WATERS. SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS SWELL
WEAKENS. OTHERWISE LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT SWITCHING TO THE SOUTH BY
TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUES NIGHT AND WED...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS LIKELY
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. VSBY LIMITED IN AREAS OF
FOG/SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS. MODEST S-SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

THU AND FRI...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH OFFSHORE
COLD FRONT EXITS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291757
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
157 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN NORMAL. WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOME STORMS WEDNESDAY MAY
BE STRONG ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. BEHIND THE FRONT...
DRIER AND NEAR SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM MAY BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND/OR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

155 PM UPDATE...

AN ABUNDANCE OF STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS CONTINUED TO AFFECT THE REGION
AT MID AFTERNOON...BUT THERE WERE A FEW BRIEF PEEKS OF SUN AT TIMES.
MAY SEE A BRIEF ISOLATED SPRINKLE/LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS OUR INTERIOR
ZONES BASED ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY...BUT DRY WEATHER DOMINATES.
SHOULD SEE SOME MORE PEEKS OF SUN DEVELOP INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...SO MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE HIGHS EVENTUALLY REACH
INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.

BEACH FORECAST...

LEFT OVER SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK
FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ON SOME OCEAN EXPOSED BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF
SOME PATCHY FOG AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WAA AND MID-LEVEL
RIDGING MOVES OVER THE AREA.

TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE ON TUESDAY AS MID-LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS. ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH THINK THAT MOST OF THE REGION WILL
REMAIN DRY...WESTERN MASS COULD SEE A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM ALONG WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70 TO
LOW 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
  WEDNESDAY...SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
* DRY AND SEASONABLE THURSDAY
* RISK OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS AGAIN FRI/SAT - INDEPENDENCE DAY

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THIS PERIOD WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER AT
TIMES IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS EVERY 2 OR 3 DAYS THIS PERIOD.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE CURRENT HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA PERSISTING. ONLY CHANGE HERE IS THAT THE WESTERN CONUS/
CANADA RIDGE RETROGRADES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS SHIFTS THE
DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES A BIT FARTHER WEST. HOWEVER
AS NEW RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER GREENLAND AND THE DAVIS STRAIT...
/SUPPORTING A NEGATIVE NAO/ TROUGHING IS REESTABLISHED OVER ONTARIO
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SETUP SUPPORTS CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...
YIELDING THE RISK SHOWERS/T-STORMS EVERY 2 OR 3 DAYS. IN ADDITION
THIS ACTIVE AND SUPPRESSED NORTHERN STREAM JET WILL PRECLUDE
EXCESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY FROM ADVECTING NORTHEAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THUS TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL.
TELECONNECTIONS FROM BOTH THE EPS AND GEFS SUPPORT THIS PATTERN
WITH BOTH ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS IN AGREEMENT ON A NEGATIVE NAO/AO AND
EPO ALONG WITH A POSITIVE PNA. THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE ABOVE
AVERAGE THIS PERIOD.

DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER...

TUE NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
APPROACHES WITH WARM FRONTAL CONVECTION LIKELY LATE TUE NIGHT. MULTI
MODEL BLEND OFFERS LIKELY POPS TOWARD 12Z WED. THUS WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER LIKELY. THEN ON WED FORECAST DILEMMA
BECOMES WILL WARM SECTOR AIRMASS OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND? IF
SHALLOW COOL AIR IS DISLODGED AND LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA THE RISK
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXIST. HOWEVER IF SHALLOW COOL AIR IS
MORE STUBBORN AND PERSIST OVER THE AREA THEN SUBSEVERE STORMS ARE
MORE LIKELY. AT THIS TIME RANGE TOO EARLY TO SAY WITH ANY CERTAINTY.
NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN GOOD SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING/DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
AND MARGINAL TO MODEST INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND T-STORMS SHOULD BE
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. THUS WILL SIDE WITH LKLY POPS FROM A MULTI-MODEL
BLEND.

THURSDAY...SHOULD SEE A DRYING TREND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT.
ALTHOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WHICH MAY CLIP CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA WITH
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS. THUS LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

FRI/SAT/SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON NORTHERN STREAM REMAINING AMPLIFIED
AND ACTIVE THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING
AND DEPTH OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND ATTENDING COLD FRONTS.
ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING NORTHERN STREAM MAY BE SUPPRESSED ENOUGH FOR
MUCH OF THE CONVECTION TO REMAIN SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF NEW
ENGLAND. NEVERTHELESS HIGH UNCERTAINTY/LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
HERE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

18Z UPDATE...

THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LEFT OVER MVFR CIGS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 20Z OR SO...DESPITE A BROKEN DECK OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT MAY SEE A FEW
HOURS OF PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.  AN ISOLATED
SPOT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
OUR PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES...WITH THE BEST SHOT IN FAR
NORTHWEST MA.

TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.  VFR IN THE EVENING.  MAY SEE SOME
LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE IN SOME LOCATIONS...BUT WHETHER THIS HAPPENS
OR NOT AND POTENTIAL AREAL COVERAGE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.  MAY ALSO SEE
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WORK INTO WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TOWARD DAYBREAK...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THAT IS ALSO LOW.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

WED...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TSTMS.
RISK OF A FEW STRONG STORMS WED. IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.

THU AND FRI...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW WILL SAY VFR BUT COULD
SEE MVFR THU ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA IN POSSIBLE SHOWERS. EVEN
MORE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /INTO TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES FOR SEAS WILL CONTINUE FROM
LEFTOVER SWELL THROUGH TODAY. COULD ALSO SEE 25 KTS ALONG THE NEAR
SHORE SOUTHERN WATERS. SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS SWELL
WEAKENS. OTHERWISE LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT SWITCHING TO THE SOUTH BY
TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUES NIGHT AND WED...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS LIKELY
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. VSBY LIMITED IN AREAS OF
FOG/SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS. MODEST S-SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

THU AND FRI...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH OFFSHORE
COLD FRONT EXITS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291401
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1000 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

DRY WEATHER RETURNS TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN NORMAL. WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOME STORMS WEDNESDAY MAY
BE STRONG ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. BEHIND THE FRONT...
DRIER AND NEAR SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM MAY BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND/OR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS COVERED SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT LATE MORNING.
THIS A RESULT OF A LOT OF TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH AN
INVERSION.  STRONG LATE JUNE SUN ANGLE WAS BEGINNING TO
POKE SOME HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER.  THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
THE AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT TO SEE MORE PEEKS OF SUN THIS AFTERNOON.
STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL PERSIST...SO BY NO
MEANS A SUNNY DAY.  ENOUGH PEEKS OF SUN SHOULD OCCUR TO PUSH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S...SO MUCH BETTER THAN YESTERDAY.

BEACH FORECAST...

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENT ACROSS SOUTH FACING SHORES OF
RI AND THE ISLANDS. THERE IS ALSO A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
ACROSS THE EASTERN FACE BEACHES OF MASS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THE
WAVE GUIDANCE IS UNDER DOING THE PERIOD AND SWELL ALONG EASTERN
MASS...SO SWIMMERS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE RIP CURRENT POTENTIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF
SOME PATCHY FOG AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WAA AND MID-LEVEL
RIDGING MOVES OVER THE AREA.

TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE ON TUESDAY AS MID-LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS. ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH THINK THAT MOST OF THE REGION WILL
REMAIN DRY...WESTERN MASS COULD SEE A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM ALONG WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70 TO
LOW 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
  WEDNESDAY...SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
* DRY AND SEASONABLE THURSDAY
* RISK OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS AGAIN FRI/SAT - INDEPENDENCE DAY

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THIS PERIOD WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER AT
TIMES IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS EVERY 2 OR 3 DAYS THIS PERIOD.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE CURRENT HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA PERSISTING. ONLY CHANGE HERE IS THAT THE WESTERN CONUS/
CANADA RIDGE RETROGRADES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS SHIFTS THE
DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES A BIT FARTHER WEST. HOWEVER
AS NEW RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER GREENLAND AND THE DAVIS STRAIT...
/SUPPORTING A NEGATIVE NAO/ TROUGHING IS REESTABLISHED OVER ONTARIO
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SETUP SUPPORTS CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...
YIELDING THE RISK SHOWERS/T-STORMS EVERY 2 OR 3 DAYS. IN ADDITION
THIS ACTIVE AND SUPPRESSED NORTHERN STREAM JET WILL PRECLUDE
EXCESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY FROM ADVECTING NORTHEAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THUS TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL.
TELECONNECTIONS FROM BOTH THE EPS AND GEFS SUPPORT THIS PATTERN
WITH BOTH ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS IN AGREEMENT ON A NEGATIVE NAO/AO AND
EPO ALONG WITH A POSITIVE PNA. THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE ABOVE
AVERAGE THIS PERIOD.

DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER...

TUE NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
APPROACHES WITH WARM FRONTAL CONVECTION LIKELY LATE TUE NIGHT. MULTI
MODEL BLEND OFFERS LIKELY POPS TOWARD 12Z WED. THUS WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER LIKELY. THEN ON WED FORECAST DILEMMA
BECOMES WILL WARM SECTOR AIRMASS OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND? IF
SHALLOW COOL AIR IS DISLODGED AND LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA THE RISK
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXIST. HOWEVER IF SHALLOW COOL AIR IS
MORE STUBBORN AND PERSIST OVER THE AREA THEN SUBSEVERE STORMS ARE
MORE LIKELY. AT THIS TIME RANGE TOO EARLY TO SAY WITH ANY CERTAINTY.
NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN GOOD SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING/DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
AND MARGINAL TO MODEST INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND T-STORMS SHOULD BE
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. THUS WILL SIDE WITH LKLY POPS FROM A MULTI-MODEL
BLEND.

THURSDAY...SHOULD SEE A DRYING TREND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT.
ALTHOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WHICH MAY CLIP CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA WITH
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS. THUS LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

FRI/SAT/SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON NORTHERN STREAM REMAINING AMPLIFIED
AND ACTIVE THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING
AND DEPTH OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND ATTENDING COLD FRONTS.
ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING NORTHERN STREAM MAY BE SUPPRESSED ENOUGH FOR
MUCH OF THE CONVECTION TO REMAIN SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF NEW
ENGLAND. NEVERTHELESS HIGH UNCERTAINTY/LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
HERE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

10 AM UPDATE...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO MAINLY MVFR AS OF LATE MORNING AND EXPECT
MAINLY VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS...DESPITE A SCATTERED
TO BROKEN DECK OF STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
IN RADIATIONAL FOG.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WITH WARM FRONT PASSING
TO THE WEST. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECT AND A
FEW -SHRA/ISO -TSRA IS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING. LOW PROBABILITY OF SEA BREEZE TODAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.

OUTLOOK...TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUE NIGHT AND WED...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH
SCATTERED TSTMS. RISK OF A FEW STRONG STORMS WED. IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY.

THU AND FRI...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW WILL SAY VFR BUT COULD
SEE MVFR THU ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA IN POSSIBLE SHOWERS. EVEN
MORE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /INTO TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES FOR SEAS WILL CONTINUE FROM
LEFTOVER SWELL THROUGH TODAY. COULD ALSO SEE 25 KTS ALONG THE NEAR
SHORE SOUTHERN WATERS. SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS SWELL
WEAKENS. OTHERWISE LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT SWITCHING TO THE SOUTH BY
TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUES NIGHT AND WED...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS LIKELY
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. VSBY LIMITED IN AREAS OF
FOG/SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS. MODEST S-SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

THU AND FRI...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH OFFSHORE
COLD FRONT EXITS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KBOX WSR-88D IS BACK IN SERVICE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN
EQUIPMENT...STAFF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 291401
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1000 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

DRY WEATHER RETURNS TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN NORMAL. WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOME STORMS WEDNESDAY MAY
BE STRONG ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. BEHIND THE FRONT...
DRIER AND NEAR SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM MAY BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND/OR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS COVERED SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AT LATE MORNING.
THIS A RESULT OF A LOT OF TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH AN
INVERSION.  STRONG LATE JUNE SUN ANGLE WAS BEGINNING TO
POKE SOME HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER.  THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
THE AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT TO SEE MORE PEEKS OF SUN THIS AFTERNOON.
STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL PERSIST...SO BY NO
MEANS A SUNNY DAY.  ENOUGH PEEKS OF SUN SHOULD OCCUR TO PUSH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S...SO MUCH BETTER THAN YESTERDAY.

BEACH FORECAST...

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENT ACROSS SOUTH FACING SHORES OF
RI AND THE ISLANDS. THERE IS ALSO A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
ACROSS THE EASTERN FACE BEACHES OF MASS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THE
WAVE GUIDANCE IS UNDER DOING THE PERIOD AND SWELL ALONG EASTERN
MASS...SO SWIMMERS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE RIP CURRENT POTENTIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF
SOME PATCHY FOG AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WAA AND MID-LEVEL
RIDGING MOVES OVER THE AREA.

TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE ON TUESDAY AS MID-LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS. ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH THINK THAT MOST OF THE REGION WILL
REMAIN DRY...WESTERN MASS COULD SEE A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM ALONG WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70 TO
LOW 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
  WEDNESDAY...SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
* DRY AND SEASONABLE THURSDAY
* RISK OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS AGAIN FRI/SAT - INDEPENDENCE DAY

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THIS PERIOD WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER AT
TIMES IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS EVERY 2 OR 3 DAYS THIS PERIOD.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE CURRENT HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA PERSISTING. ONLY CHANGE HERE IS THAT THE WESTERN CONUS/
CANADA RIDGE RETROGRADES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS SHIFTS THE
DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES A BIT FARTHER WEST. HOWEVER
AS NEW RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER GREENLAND AND THE DAVIS STRAIT...
/SUPPORTING A NEGATIVE NAO/ TROUGHING IS REESTABLISHED OVER ONTARIO
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SETUP SUPPORTS CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...
YIELDING THE RISK SHOWERS/T-STORMS EVERY 2 OR 3 DAYS. IN ADDITION
THIS ACTIVE AND SUPPRESSED NORTHERN STREAM JET WILL PRECLUDE
EXCESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY FROM ADVECTING NORTHEAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THUS TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL.
TELECONNECTIONS FROM BOTH THE EPS AND GEFS SUPPORT THIS PATTERN
WITH BOTH ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS IN AGREEMENT ON A NEGATIVE NAO/AO AND
EPO ALONG WITH A POSITIVE PNA. THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE ABOVE
AVERAGE THIS PERIOD.

DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER...

TUE NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
APPROACHES WITH WARM FRONTAL CONVECTION LIKELY LATE TUE NIGHT. MULTI
MODEL BLEND OFFERS LIKELY POPS TOWARD 12Z WED. THUS WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER LIKELY. THEN ON WED FORECAST DILEMMA
BECOMES WILL WARM SECTOR AIRMASS OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND? IF
SHALLOW COOL AIR IS DISLODGED AND LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA THE RISK
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXIST. HOWEVER IF SHALLOW COOL AIR IS
MORE STUBBORN AND PERSIST OVER THE AREA THEN SUBSEVERE STORMS ARE
MORE LIKELY. AT THIS TIME RANGE TOO EARLY TO SAY WITH ANY CERTAINTY.
NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN GOOD SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING/DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
AND MARGINAL TO MODEST INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND T-STORMS SHOULD BE
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. THUS WILL SIDE WITH LKLY POPS FROM A MULTI-MODEL
BLEND.

THURSDAY...SHOULD SEE A DRYING TREND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT.
ALTHOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WHICH MAY CLIP CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA WITH
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS. THUS LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

FRI/SAT/SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON NORTHERN STREAM REMAINING AMPLIFIED
AND ACTIVE THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING
AND DEPTH OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND ATTENDING COLD FRONTS.
ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING NORTHERN STREAM MAY BE SUPPRESSED ENOUGH FOR
MUCH OF THE CONVECTION TO REMAIN SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF NEW
ENGLAND. NEVERTHELESS HIGH UNCERTAINTY/LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
HERE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

10 AM UPDATE...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO MAINLY MVFR AS OF LATE MORNING AND EXPECT
MAINLY VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS...DESPITE A SCATTERED
TO BROKEN DECK OF STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
IN RADIATIONAL FOG.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WITH WARM FRONT PASSING
TO THE WEST. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECT AND A
FEW -SHRA/ISO -TSRA IS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING. LOW PROBABILITY OF SEA BREEZE TODAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.

OUTLOOK...TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUE NIGHT AND WED...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH
SCATTERED TSTMS. RISK OF A FEW STRONG STORMS WED. IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY.

THU AND FRI...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW WILL SAY VFR BUT COULD
SEE MVFR THU ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA IN POSSIBLE SHOWERS. EVEN
MORE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /INTO TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES FOR SEAS WILL CONTINUE FROM
LEFTOVER SWELL THROUGH TODAY. COULD ALSO SEE 25 KTS ALONG THE NEAR
SHORE SOUTHERN WATERS. SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS SWELL
WEAKENS. OTHERWISE LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT SWITCHING TO THE SOUTH BY
TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUES NIGHT AND WED...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS LIKELY
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. VSBY LIMITED IN AREAS OF
FOG/SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS. MODEST S-SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

THU AND FRI...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH OFFSHORE
COLD FRONT EXITS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KBOX WSR-88D IS BACK IN SERVICE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN
EQUIPMENT...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291100
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
700 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN NORMAL. WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOME STORMS WEDNESDAY MAY
BE STRONG ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. BEHIND THE FRONT...
DRIER AND NEAR SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM MAY BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND/OR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

7 AM UPDATE...

NOT VERY SUMMER-LIKE THIS MORNING WITH LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY
FOG/DRIZZLE AND COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. HOWEVER BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE SW AND THIS LAND
TRAJECTORY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION HELP MODIFY/ERODE THE MARITIME
AIRMASS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS WILL WARM TEMPS INTO THE
LOW AND MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON...U60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH
COAST. BUFKIT TIME SECTIONS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND NAM INDICATE
LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SO
EXPECTING MORNING STRATUS TO LIFT INTO A SCU/CU DECK WITH A FEW
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE DEVELOPING. HOWEVER THEME WILL LIKELY BE MORE
CLOUDS THAN SUN TODAY. NEVERTHELESS MUCH BETTER THAN YESTERDAY/S
WEATHER. OVERALL NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. EARLIER
DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP STRATUS AND SOME
DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE WINDS HAVE GONE LIGHT OR ARE IN AN
EASTERLY FLOW. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE NORMALLY
PRONE REGIONS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
BERKS WILL CONTINUE THANKS TO UPSLOPE EASTERLY FLOW.

TODAY...

SURFACE LOW WILL HEAD TOWARDS THE MARITIMES THIS MORNING ALLOWING
FOR THE FLOW TO TURN MORE WESTERLY. THIS WILL HELP DRY THE REGION
OUT. STRATUS COULD HANG TOUGH FOR THE MORNING HOURS...BUT
SHOULD BREAK UP AROUND NOON. THIS WILL HELP WARM TEMPS BACK TOWARDS
SEASONABLE. WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE AS LINGERING CLOUDS
AS WELL AT 850MB TEMPS AT 9-10 C WILL LIMIT MAX HEATING.

LASTLY GUIDANCE HAS A FEW TENTHS OF QPF THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE A LOW
CONFIDENCE THAT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AS THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE DRY.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THAT THE ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE WINDS COULD
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. SO WITH GOOD MIXING AND DRY LOW LEVELS...NOT
ANTICIPATE SHOWERS BUT MORE CLOUDS/VIRGA THIS AFTERNOON.

BEACH FORECAST...

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENT ACROSS SOUTH FACING SHORES OF
RI AND THE ISLANDS. THERE IS ALSO A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
ACROSS THE EASTERN FACE BEACHES OF MASS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THE
WAVE GUIDANCE IS UNDER DOING THE PERIOD AND SWELL ALONG EASTERN
MASS...SO SWIMMERS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE RIP CURRENT POTENTIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF
SOME PATCHY FOG AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WAA AND MID-LEVEL
RIDGING MOVES OVER THE AREA.

TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE ON TUESDAY AS MID-LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS. ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH THINK THAT MOST OF THE REGION WILL
REMAIN DRY...WESTERN MASS COULD SEE A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM ALONG WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70 TO
LOW 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
  WEDNESDAY...SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
* DRY AND SEASONABLE THURSDAY
* RISK OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS AGAIN FRI/SAT - INDEPENDENCE DAY

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THIS PERIOD WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER AT
TIMES IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS EVERY 2 OR 3 DAYS THIS PERIOD.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE CURRENT HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA PERSISTING. ONLY CHANGE HERE IS THAT THE WESTERN CONUS/
CANADA RIDGE RETROGRADES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS SHIFTS THE
DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES A BIT FARTHER WEST. HOWEVER
AS NEW RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER GREENLAND AND THE DAVIS STRAIT...
/SUPPORTING A NEGATIVE NAO/ TROUGHING IS REESTABLISHED OVER ONTARIO
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SETUP SUPPORTS CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...
YIELDING THE RISK SHOWERS/T-STORMS EVERY 2 OR 3 DAYS. IN ADDITION
THIS ACTIVE AND SUPPRESSED NORTHERN STREAM JET WILL PRECLUDE
EXCESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY FROM ADVECTING NORTHEAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THUS TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL.
TELECONNECTIONS FROM BOTH THE EPS AND GEFS SUPPORT THIS PATTERN
WITH BOTH ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS IN AGREEMENT ON A NEGATIVE NAO/AO AND
EPO ALONG WITH A POSITIVE PNA. THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE ABOVE
AVERAGE THIS PERIOD.

DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER...

TUE NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
APPROACHES WITH WARM FRONTAL CONVECTION LIKELY LATE TUE NIGHT. MULTI
MODEL BLEND OFFERS LIKELY POPS TOWARD 12Z WED. THUS WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER LIKELY. THEN ON WED FORECAST DILEMMA
BECOMES WILL WARM SECTOR AIRMASS OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND? IF
SHALLOW COOL AIR IS DISLODGED AND LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA THE RISK
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXIST. HOWEVER IF SHALLOW COOL AIR IS
MORE STUBBORN AND PERSIST OVER THE AREA THEN SUBSEVERE STORMS ARE
MORE LIKELY. AT THIS TIME RANGE TOO EARLY TO SAY WITH ANY CERTAINTY.
NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN GOOD SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING/DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
AND MARGINAL TO MODEST INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND T-STORMS SHOULD BE
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. THUS WILL SIDE WITH LKLY POPS FROM A MULTI-MODEL
BLEND.

THURSDAY...SHOULD SEE A DRYING TREND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT.
ALTHOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WHICH MAY CLIP CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA WITH
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS. THUS LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

FRI/SAT/SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON NORTHERN STREAM REMAINING AMPLIFIED
AND ACTIVE THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING
AND DEPTH OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND ATTENDING COLD FRONTS.
ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING NORTHERN STREAM MAY BE SUPPRESSED ENOUGH FOR
MUCH OF THE CONVECTION TO REMAIN SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF NEW
ENGLAND. NEVERTHELESS HIGH UNCERTAINTY/LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
HERE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

12Z UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 06Z AND 09Z TAFS. TRENDS WILL
BE FOR MVFR/IFR TO LIFT TO VFR BY MIDDAY AS WINDS BECOME SW. LOCAL
SEABREEZES POSSIBLE. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===================================================================

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR THANKS TO DRIER AIR
WORKING IN FROM THE WEST. LOW PROB OF A SEA BREEZE ALONG THE MASS
EAST COAST.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
IN RADIATIONAL FOG.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WITH WARM FRONT PASSING
TO THE WEST. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECT AND A
FEW -SHRA/ISO -TSRA IS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING. LOW PROBABILITY OF SEA BREEZE TODAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.

OUTLOOK...TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUE NIGHT AND WED...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH
SCATTERED TSTMS. RISK OF A FEW STRONG STORMS WED. IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY.

THU AND FRI...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW WILL SAY VFR BUT COULD
SEE MVFR THU ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA IN POSSIBLE SHOWERS. EVEN
MORE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /INTO TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES FOR SEAS WILL CONTINUE FROM
LEFTOVER SWELL THROUGH TODAY. COULD ALSO SEE 25 KTS ALONG THE NEAR
SHORE SOUTHERN WATERS. SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS SWELL
WEAKENS. OTHERWISE LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT SWITCHING TO THE SOUTH BY
TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUES NIGHT AND WED...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS LIKELY
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. VSBY LIMITED IN AREAS OF
FOG/SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS. MODEST S-SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

THU AND FRI...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH OFFSHORE
COLD FRONT EXITS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KBOX WSR-88D IS OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL AN UNKNOWN TIME. TECHNICIANS
HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED AND WILL LOOK INTO THE ISSUE THIS MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291100
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
700 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN NORMAL. WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOME STORMS WEDNESDAY MAY
BE STRONG ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. BEHIND THE FRONT...
DRIER AND NEAR SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM MAY BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND/OR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

7 AM UPDATE...

NOT VERY SUMMER-LIKE THIS MORNING WITH LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY
FOG/DRIZZLE AND COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. HOWEVER BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE SW AND THIS LAND
TRAJECTORY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION HELP MODIFY/ERODE THE MARITIME
AIRMASS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS WILL WARM TEMPS INTO THE
LOW AND MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON...U60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH
COAST. BUFKIT TIME SECTIONS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND NAM INDICATE
LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SO
EXPECTING MORNING STRATUS TO LIFT INTO A SCU/CU DECK WITH A FEW
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE DEVELOPING. HOWEVER THEME WILL LIKELY BE MORE
CLOUDS THAN SUN TODAY. NEVERTHELESS MUCH BETTER THAN YESTERDAY/S
WEATHER. OVERALL NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. EARLIER
DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP STRATUS AND SOME
DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE WINDS HAVE GONE LIGHT OR ARE IN AN
EASTERLY FLOW. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE NORMALLY
PRONE REGIONS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
BERKS WILL CONTINUE THANKS TO UPSLOPE EASTERLY FLOW.

TODAY...

SURFACE LOW WILL HEAD TOWARDS THE MARITIMES THIS MORNING ALLOWING
FOR THE FLOW TO TURN MORE WESTERLY. THIS WILL HELP DRY THE REGION
OUT. STRATUS COULD HANG TOUGH FOR THE MORNING HOURS...BUT
SHOULD BREAK UP AROUND NOON. THIS WILL HELP WARM TEMPS BACK TOWARDS
SEASONABLE. WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE AS LINGERING CLOUDS
AS WELL AT 850MB TEMPS AT 9-10 C WILL LIMIT MAX HEATING.

LASTLY GUIDANCE HAS A FEW TENTHS OF QPF THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE A LOW
CONFIDENCE THAT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AS THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE DRY.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THAT THE ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE WINDS COULD
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. SO WITH GOOD MIXING AND DRY LOW LEVELS...NOT
ANTICIPATE SHOWERS BUT MORE CLOUDS/VIRGA THIS AFTERNOON.

BEACH FORECAST...

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENT ACROSS SOUTH FACING SHORES OF
RI AND THE ISLANDS. THERE IS ALSO A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
ACROSS THE EASTERN FACE BEACHES OF MASS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THE
WAVE GUIDANCE IS UNDER DOING THE PERIOD AND SWELL ALONG EASTERN
MASS...SO SWIMMERS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE RIP CURRENT POTENTIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF
SOME PATCHY FOG AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WAA AND MID-LEVEL
RIDGING MOVES OVER THE AREA.

TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE ON TUESDAY AS MID-LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS. ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH THINK THAT MOST OF THE REGION WILL
REMAIN DRY...WESTERN MASS COULD SEE A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM ALONG WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70 TO
LOW 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
  WEDNESDAY...SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
* DRY AND SEASONABLE THURSDAY
* RISK OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS AGAIN FRI/SAT - INDEPENDENCE DAY

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THIS PERIOD WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER AT
TIMES IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS EVERY 2 OR 3 DAYS THIS PERIOD.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE CURRENT HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA PERSISTING. ONLY CHANGE HERE IS THAT THE WESTERN CONUS/
CANADA RIDGE RETROGRADES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS SHIFTS THE
DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES A BIT FARTHER WEST. HOWEVER
AS NEW RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER GREENLAND AND THE DAVIS STRAIT...
/SUPPORTING A NEGATIVE NAO/ TROUGHING IS REESTABLISHED OVER ONTARIO
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SETUP SUPPORTS CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...
YIELDING THE RISK SHOWERS/T-STORMS EVERY 2 OR 3 DAYS. IN ADDITION
THIS ACTIVE AND SUPPRESSED NORTHERN STREAM JET WILL PRECLUDE
EXCESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY FROM ADVECTING NORTHEAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THUS TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL.
TELECONNECTIONS FROM BOTH THE EPS AND GEFS SUPPORT THIS PATTERN
WITH BOTH ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS IN AGREEMENT ON A NEGATIVE NAO/AO AND
EPO ALONG WITH A POSITIVE PNA. THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE ABOVE
AVERAGE THIS PERIOD.

DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER...

TUE NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
APPROACHES WITH WARM FRONTAL CONVECTION LIKELY LATE TUE NIGHT. MULTI
MODEL BLEND OFFERS LIKELY POPS TOWARD 12Z WED. THUS WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER LIKELY. THEN ON WED FORECAST DILEMMA
BECOMES WILL WARM SECTOR AIRMASS OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND? IF
SHALLOW COOL AIR IS DISLODGED AND LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA THE RISK
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXIST. HOWEVER IF SHALLOW COOL AIR IS
MORE STUBBORN AND PERSIST OVER THE AREA THEN SUBSEVERE STORMS ARE
MORE LIKELY. AT THIS TIME RANGE TOO EARLY TO SAY WITH ANY CERTAINTY.
NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN GOOD SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING/DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
AND MARGINAL TO MODEST INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND T-STORMS SHOULD BE
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. THUS WILL SIDE WITH LKLY POPS FROM A MULTI-MODEL
BLEND.

THURSDAY...SHOULD SEE A DRYING TREND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT.
ALTHOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WHICH MAY CLIP CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA WITH
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS. THUS LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

FRI/SAT/SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON NORTHERN STREAM REMAINING AMPLIFIED
AND ACTIVE THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING
AND DEPTH OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND ATTENDING COLD FRONTS.
ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING NORTHERN STREAM MAY BE SUPPRESSED ENOUGH FOR
MUCH OF THE CONVECTION TO REMAIN SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF NEW
ENGLAND. NEVERTHELESS HIGH UNCERTAINTY/LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
HERE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

12Z UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 06Z AND 09Z TAFS. TRENDS WILL
BE FOR MVFR/IFR TO LIFT TO VFR BY MIDDAY AS WINDS BECOME SW. LOCAL
SEABREEZES POSSIBLE. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===================================================================

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR THANKS TO DRIER AIR
WORKING IN FROM THE WEST. LOW PROB OF A SEA BREEZE ALONG THE MASS
EAST COAST.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
IN RADIATIONAL FOG.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WITH WARM FRONT PASSING
TO THE WEST. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECT AND A
FEW -SHRA/ISO -TSRA IS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING. LOW PROBABILITY OF SEA BREEZE TODAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.

OUTLOOK...TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUE NIGHT AND WED...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH
SCATTERED TSTMS. RISK OF A FEW STRONG STORMS WED. IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY.

THU AND FRI...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW WILL SAY VFR BUT COULD
SEE MVFR THU ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA IN POSSIBLE SHOWERS. EVEN
MORE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /INTO TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES FOR SEAS WILL CONTINUE FROM
LEFTOVER SWELL THROUGH TODAY. COULD ALSO SEE 25 KTS ALONG THE NEAR
SHORE SOUTHERN WATERS. SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS SWELL
WEAKENS. OTHERWISE LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT SWITCHING TO THE SOUTH BY
TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUES NIGHT AND WED...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS LIKELY
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. VSBY LIMITED IN AREAS OF
FOG/SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS. MODEST S-SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

THU AND FRI...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH OFFSHORE
COLD FRONT EXITS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KBOX WSR-88D IS OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL AN UNKNOWN TIME. TECHNICIANS
HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED AND WILL LOOK INTO THE ISSUE THIS MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN
EQUIPMENT...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 290812
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
412 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN NORMAL. WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOME STORMS WEDNESDAY MAY
BE STRONG ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. BEHIND THE FRONT...
DRIER AND NEAR SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM MAY BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND/OR
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

4 AM UPDATE...

TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP STRATUS AND SOME
DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE WINDS HAVE GONE LIGHT OR ARE IN AN
EASTERLY FLOW. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE NORMALLY
PRONE REGIONS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
BERKS WILL CONTINUE THANKS TO UPSLOPE EASTERLY FLOW.

TODAY...

SURFACE LOW WILL HEAD TOWARDS THE MARITIMES THIS MORNING ALLOWING
FOR THE FLOW TO TURN MORE WESTERLY. THIS WILL HELP DRY THE REGION
OUT. STRATUS COULD HANG TOUGH FOR THE MORNING HOURS...BUT
SHOULD BREAK UP AROUND NOON. THIS WILL HELP WARM TEMPS BACK TOWARDS
SEASONABLE. WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE AS LINGERING CLOUDS
AS WELL AT 850MB TEMPS AT 9-10 C WILL LIMIT MAX HEATING.

LASTLY GUIDANCE HAS A FEW TENTHS OF QPF THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE A LOW
CONFIDENCE THAT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AS THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE DRY.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THAT THE ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE WINDS COULD
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. SO WITH GOOD MIXING AND DRY LOW LEVELS...NOT
ANTICIPATE SHOWERS BUT MORE CLOUDS/VIRGA THIS AFTERNOON.

BEACH FORECAST...

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENT ACROSS SOUTH FACING SHORES OF
RI AND THE ISLANDS. THERE IS ALSO A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
ACROSS THE EASTERN FACE BEACHES OF MASS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THE
WAVE GUIDANCE IS UNDER DOING THE PERIOD AND SWELL ALONG EASTERN
MASS...SO SWIMMERS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE RIP CURRENT POTENTIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT. THERE IS A LOW PROB OF
SOME PATCHY FOG AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WAA AND MID-LEVEL
RIDGING MOVES OVER THE AREA.

TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE ON TUESDAY AS MID-LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS. ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH THINK THAT MOST OF THE REGION WILL
REMAIN DRY...WESTERN MASS COULD SEE A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM ALONG WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70 TO
LOW 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
  WEDNESDAY...SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
* DRY AND SEASONABLE THURSDAY
* RISK OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS AGAIN FRI/SAT - INDEPENDENCE DAY

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THIS PERIOD WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER AT
TIMES IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS EVERY 2 OR 3 DAYS THIS PERIOD.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE CURRENT HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA PERSISTING. ONLY CHANGE HERE IS THAT THE WESTERN CONUS/
CANADA RIDGE RETROGRADES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS SHIFTS THE
DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES A BIT FARTHER WEST. HOWEVER
AS NEW RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER GREENLAND AND THE DAVIS STRAIT...
/SUPPORTING A NEGATIVE NAO/ TROUGHING IS REESTABLISHED OVER ONTARIO
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SETUP SUPPORTS CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...
YIELDING THE RISK SHOWERS/T-STORMS EVERY 2 OR 3 DAYS. IN ADDITION
THIS ACTIVE AND SUPPRESSED NORTHERN STREAM JET WILL PRECLUDE
EXCESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY FROM ADVECTING NORTHEAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THUS TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL.
TELECONNECTIONS FROM BOTH THE EPS AND GEFS SUPPORT THIS PATTERN
WITH BOTH ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS IN AGREEMENT ON A NEGATIVE NAO/AO AND
EPO ALONG WITH A POSITIVE PNA. THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE ABOVE
AVERAGE THIS PERIOD.

DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER...

TUE NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
APPROACHES WITH WARM FRONTAL CONVECTION LIKELY LATE TUE NIGHT. MULTI
MODEL BLEND OFFERS LIKELY POPS TOWARD 12Z WED. THUS WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER LIKELY. THEN ON WED FORECAST DILEMMA
BECOMES WILL WARM SECTOR AIRMASS OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND? IF
SHALLOW COOL AIR IS DISLODGED AND LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA THE RISK
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXIST. HOWEVER IF SHALLOW COOL AIR IS
MORE STUBBORN AND PERSIST OVER THE AREA THEN SUBSEVERE STORMS ARE
MORE LIKELY. AT THIS TIME RANGE TOO EARLY TO SAY WITH ANY CERTAINTY.
NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN GOOD SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING/DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
AND MARGINAL TO MODEST INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND T-STORMS SHOULD BE
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. THUS WILL SIDE WITH LKLY POPS FROM A MULTI-MODEL
BLEND.

THURSDAY...SHOULD SEE A DRYING TREND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT.
ALTHOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WHICH MAY CLIP CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA WITH
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS. THUS LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

FRI/SAT/SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON NORTHERN STREAM REMAINING AMPLIFIED
AND ACTIVE THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING
AND DEPTH OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND ATTENDING COLD FRONTS.
ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING NORTHERN STREAM MAY BE SUPPRESSED ENOUGH FOR
MUCH OF THE CONVECTION TO REMAIN SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF NEW
ENGLAND. NEVERTHELESS HIGH UNCERTAINTY/LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
HERE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

BEFORE 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE IS TRAPPED JUST BELOW THE
INVERSION. THIS HAS CAUSED LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND DRIZZLE.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR THANKS TO DRIER AIR
WORKING IN FROM THE WEST. LOW PROB OF A SEA BREEZE ALONG THE MASS
EAST COAST.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
IN RADIATIONAL FOG.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WITH WARM FRONT PASSING
TO THE WEST. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECT AND A
FEW -SHRA/ISO -TSRA IS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING. LOW PROBABILITY OF SEA BREEZE TODAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.

OUTLOOK...TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUE NIGHT AND WED...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH
SCATTERED TSTMS. RISK OF A FEW STRONG STORMS WED. IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY.

THU AND FRI...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW WILL SAY VFR BUT COULD
SEE MVFR THU ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA IN POSSIBLE SHOWERS. EVEN
MORE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /INTO TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES FOR SEAS WILL CONTINUE FROM
LEFTOVER SWELL THROUGH TODAY. COULD ALSO SEE 25 KTS ALONG THE NEAR
SHORE SOUTHERN WATERS. SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED.

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS SWELL
WEAKENS. OTHERWISE LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT SWITCHING TO THE SOUTH BY
TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUES NIGHT AND WED...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS LIKELY
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. VSBY LIMITED IN AREAS OF
FOG/SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS. MODEST S-SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

THU AND FRI...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH OFFSHORE
COLD FRONT EXITS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KBOX WSR-88D IS OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL AN UNKNOWN TIME. TECHNICIANS
HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED AND WILL LOOK INTO THE ISSUE THIS MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN
EQUIPMENT...STAFF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 290606
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
206 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
JUST A FEW SPOT SHOWERS WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL. WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOME
STORMS ON WEDNESDAY MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE ALONG WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. SPOTTY SHOWERS LINGER INTO THURSDAY. DRY AND MILD
WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT
APPROACHES BRINGING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE FRI INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

200 AM UPDATE...

SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE STRATUS AND DRIZZLE ACROSS THE
REGION. A FEW SCT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS CT AND WESTERN
MASS. THIS WILL CONTINUE A NE TRAJECTORY AS SURFACE LOW MOVES
TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. ON THE BACKSIDE...WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY
SHIFT TO THE WEST DRYING THE REGION OUT.

OTHERWISE TEMPS WONT MOVE MUCH THANKS TO OVERCAST SKY COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL BE THE MAIN
STORY WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION. DO NOT
EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO BE WIDESPREAD OR DENSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
ADVISORY...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S WITH SOME LOWER 60S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
MONDAY...

BIGGEST QUESTION MARK FOR MONDAY IS HOW QUICKLY LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN
OFF.  WE MAY STILL BE DEALING WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS IN THE
MORNING...BUT SHOULD SEE SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE EMERGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS OUR
NORTHWEST ZONES WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE...BUT PRETTY MUCH A DRY DAY ON
TAP. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 70S...SO IN A NUTSHELL MUCH BETTER
THEN TODAY.

BEACH FORECAST...

A MODERATE TO EVEN HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED
ON SOME OF OUR OCEAN EXPOSED BEACHES ON MONDAY.  HIGH SURF
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING...BUT THE NEXT
SHIFT MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT FOR MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
  WEDNESDAY...THEN SPOTTY SHOWERS LINGER INTO THURSDAY
* SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
* DRY AND MILD THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
* ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH MORE
  SCT SHOWERS

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

12Z OP MODEL SOLUTIONS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INTO WED NIGHT...THEN
SOLUTIONS WIDEN IN THE RESPONSE TO THE POSSIBLE BREAKING DOWN OF THE
LONG WAVE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/TROUGH ACROSS NORTH AMERICA
LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IT APPEARS THAT THE
TROUGHING BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED OVER TIME ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...
WHICH PRESENTS PROBLEMS IN TRYING TO TIME SENSIBLE WEATHER SURFACE
SYSTEMS IN THIS FAST FLOW ALOFT. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FROM THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ANY APPROACHING SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY AS THE
NORTHERN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE. DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME
BREAKS IN THE ACTION BETWEEN EACH SYSTEM SO THERE WILL BE SOME DRY
PERIODS AS WELL. 12Z OP MODEL SUITE CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A RATHER
STRONG SYSTEM DURING THE TUE NIGHT/WED TIMEFRAME WHICH CONTINUES TO
HAVE VERY GOOD MODEL SUPPORT AND AGREEMENT.

PLAN ON USING BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH WED NIGHT
THEN WILL TRANSITION OVER TO ENSEMBLES /GEFS AND ECENS/ FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE LARGE TIMING AND TRACK
DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS.

DETAILS...

MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING PUSHES QUICKLY ACROSS THE
REGION...SO EXPECT DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
CLOUDS MAY START TO INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS WESTERN AREAS.
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...RANGING TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

TUESDAY...NEXT SURFACE LOW AND FRONT SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE W IN
THE NEARLY PARALLEL UPPER LEVEL SW WIND FLOW. WILL SEE INCREASING
CLOUDS DURING THE DAY BUT...DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT...LOOKS LIKE BULK
OF THE PRECIP REMAINS W OF THE REGION. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS WORK
INTO THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES. GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION WORKING
IN THE SW FLOW SO EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY AROUND 80...JUST ABOUT AT THE
SEASONAL NORM FOR LATE JUNE.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...AS THE H5 SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT
SLOWLY APPROACH TUE NIGHT...WILL START TO SEE SCT SHOWERS MOVE IN
EARLY. BETTER DYNAMICS AND SCT ELEVATED CONVECTION LOOK TO APPROACH
AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AREAS THEN SHIFTS E TOWARD
DAYBREAK WED.

BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO OCCUR DURING WED...AND HAVE MENTIONED
SPOTTY CATEGORICAL POPS INLAND. WITH THE SW UPPER FLOW IN PLACE...
THIS SYSTEM REMAINS A SLOW MOVER. DEWPTS FORECAST TO RISE TO THE MID
AND UPPER 60S ALONG WITH PWATS INCREASING WITH THE SW FLOW...ON
ORDER OF 1.7 TO 1.9 INCHES. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL
ESPECIALLY IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.  IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY WITH THIS
SYSTEM...K INDICES TO THE UPPER 30S AND CAPES INCREASING TO 1000-
1500 J/KG WED AFTERNOON ALONG WITH GOOD SW SHEAR /H925 WINDS AROUND
30 KT AND H85 WINDS 30-35 KT/ ALONG WITH A STRONG UPPER JET PASSING
ACROSS. H5 COLD POOL ALSO SNEAKS IN...WITH TEMPS DOWN TO -10C TO
-12C WED AFTERNOON. SO...WILL BE MONITORING THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH TOWARD THE S
COAST WED NIGHT THEN LOOKS TO STALL A BIT FURTHER DOWN THE COAST.
WILL STILL SEE LEFTOVER SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS BUT SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE
BY MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO DEVELOP MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THEN...ON THURSDAY...SKIES WILL START OFF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY.
HOWEVER...WITH THE H5 COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SEE SOME SCT DIURNAL
SHOWERS DEVELOP MAINLY INLAND. ONLY CARRIED 20-30 PCT CHANCE MAINLY
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS SHOULD END WITH
SUNSET.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY DUE TO WIDE MODEL
SOLUTIONS. AT THIS POINT...SHOULD BE A DRY DAY FOR MOST OF FRIDAY
BEFORE MORE SCT SHOWERS MOVE IN. LOTS OF QUESTIONS ABOUT WHETHER A
WAVE OF LOW PRES FORMS ON STALLED FRONT TO THE S THAT MAY BRING MORE
MOISTURE FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. CARRIED ONLY CHANCE
POPS FOR THIS. TIMING IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION FOR YET ANOTHER FAST
MOVING SYSTEM LATE THIS WEEKEND. TEMPS OVER THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND
LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO OR ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

BEFORE 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH DUE TO LOW CLOUDS...AREAS OF FOG/DRIZZLE ALONG
WITH PASSING SHOWER OR TWO. MOISTURE WILL REMAINED TRAPPED JUST
BELOW THE INVERSION.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR THANKS TO DRIER AIR
WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
IN RADIATIONAL FOG.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WITH WARM FRONT PASSING
TO THE WEST. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECT AND A
FEW -SHRA/ISO -TSRA IS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGHEST RISK FOR SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE WED WITH GUSTY WINDS. MVFR
LIKELY. LOCAL IFR IN ANY PATCHY FOG LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...LEFTOVER MVFR CONDITIONS IN ANY
SHOWERS/TSTMS EARLY WED NIGHT...THEN TRENDING TOWARD VFR WITH
SHOWERS ENDING. LOW CHANCE FOR SPOTTY SHOWERS LATE THU MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INLAND...BRIEF LOCAL MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...

OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES FOR SEAS WILL CONTINUE FROM LEFTOVER SWELL
THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUNDS AND ALL OUTER WATERS.
AREAS OF FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES FOR MARINERS INTO
MONDAY MORNING.

MAY ALSO SEE A PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS
ACROSS BUZZARDS BAY/NANTUCKET SOUND AND CAPE COD BAY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IF CONFIDENCE ON THE NEXT SHIFT GROWS...THEY MAY NEEDED
TO BE ADDED TO THE SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES FOR A TIME.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...LEFTOVER SW GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS WILL END EARLY. SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 5-7 FT EARLY ON THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY.

TUESDAY...EXPECT LIGHT S WINDS AND SEAS 4 FT OR LESS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...EXPECT S-SW WINDS TO INCREASE AHEAD
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GUSTS TO 20 KT MAINLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS. SEAS BUILDING UP TO 5-6 FT MAINLY ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG WITH PATCHY
FOG.

THURSDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO W AND DIMINISH. SEAS REMAIN AROUND 5 FT
ON THE OUTER WATERS.

FRIDAY...LIGHT WINDS BECOME E-SE. MAY SEE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS.
PATCHY FOG REDUCING VSBYS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...

KBOX WSR-88D IS OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL AN UNKNOWN TIME. TECHNICIANS
HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED AND WILL LOOK INTO THE ISSUE THIS MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DUNTEN/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290606
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
206 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
JUST A FEW SPOT SHOWERS WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL. WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOME
STORMS ON WEDNESDAY MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE ALONG WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. SPOTTY SHOWERS LINGER INTO THURSDAY. DRY AND MILD
WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT
APPROACHES BRINGING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE FRI INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

200 AM UPDATE...

SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE STRATUS AND DRIZZLE ACROSS THE
REGION. A FEW SCT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS CT AND WESTERN
MASS. THIS WILL CONTINUE A NE TRAJECTORY AS SURFACE LOW MOVES
TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. ON THE BACKSIDE...WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY
SHIFT TO THE WEST DRYING THE REGION OUT.

OTHERWISE TEMPS WONT MOVE MUCH THANKS TO OVERCAST SKY COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL BE THE MAIN
STORY WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION. DO NOT
EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO BE WIDESPREAD OR DENSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
ADVISORY...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S WITH SOME LOWER 60S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
MONDAY...

BIGGEST QUESTION MARK FOR MONDAY IS HOW QUICKLY LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN
OFF.  WE MAY STILL BE DEALING WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS IN THE
MORNING...BUT SHOULD SEE SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE EMERGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS OUR
NORTHWEST ZONES WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE...BUT PRETTY MUCH A DRY DAY ON
TAP. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 70S...SO IN A NUTSHELL MUCH BETTER
THEN TODAY.

BEACH FORECAST...

A MODERATE TO EVEN HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED
ON SOME OF OUR OCEAN EXPOSED BEACHES ON MONDAY.  HIGH SURF
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING...BUT THE NEXT
SHIFT MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT FOR MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
  WEDNESDAY...THEN SPOTTY SHOWERS LINGER INTO THURSDAY
* SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
* DRY AND MILD THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
* ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH MORE
  SCT SHOWERS

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

12Z OP MODEL SOLUTIONS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INTO WED NIGHT...THEN
SOLUTIONS WIDEN IN THE RESPONSE TO THE POSSIBLE BREAKING DOWN OF THE
LONG WAVE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/TROUGH ACROSS NORTH AMERICA
LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IT APPEARS THAT THE
TROUGHING BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED OVER TIME ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...
WHICH PRESENTS PROBLEMS IN TRYING TO TIME SENSIBLE WEATHER SURFACE
SYSTEMS IN THIS FAST FLOW ALOFT. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FROM THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ANY APPROACHING SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY AS THE
NORTHERN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE. DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME
BREAKS IN THE ACTION BETWEEN EACH SYSTEM SO THERE WILL BE SOME DRY
PERIODS AS WELL. 12Z OP MODEL SUITE CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A RATHER
STRONG SYSTEM DURING THE TUE NIGHT/WED TIMEFRAME WHICH CONTINUES TO
HAVE VERY GOOD MODEL SUPPORT AND AGREEMENT.

PLAN ON USING BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH WED NIGHT
THEN WILL TRANSITION OVER TO ENSEMBLES /GEFS AND ECENS/ FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE LARGE TIMING AND TRACK
DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS.

DETAILS...

MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING PUSHES QUICKLY ACROSS THE
REGION...SO EXPECT DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
CLOUDS MAY START TO INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS WESTERN AREAS.
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...RANGING TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

TUESDAY...NEXT SURFACE LOW AND FRONT SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE W IN
THE NEARLY PARALLEL UPPER LEVEL SW WIND FLOW. WILL SEE INCREASING
CLOUDS DURING THE DAY BUT...DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT...LOOKS LIKE BULK
OF THE PRECIP REMAINS W OF THE REGION. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS WORK
INTO THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES. GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION WORKING
IN THE SW FLOW SO EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY AROUND 80...JUST ABOUT AT THE
SEASONAL NORM FOR LATE JUNE.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...AS THE H5 SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT
SLOWLY APPROACH TUE NIGHT...WILL START TO SEE SCT SHOWERS MOVE IN
EARLY. BETTER DYNAMICS AND SCT ELEVATED CONVECTION LOOK TO APPROACH
AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AREAS THEN SHIFTS E TOWARD
DAYBREAK WED.

BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO OCCUR DURING WED...AND HAVE MENTIONED
SPOTTY CATEGORICAL POPS INLAND. WITH THE SW UPPER FLOW IN PLACE...
THIS SYSTEM REMAINS A SLOW MOVER. DEWPTS FORECAST TO RISE TO THE MID
AND UPPER 60S ALONG WITH PWATS INCREASING WITH THE SW FLOW...ON
ORDER OF 1.7 TO 1.9 INCHES. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL
ESPECIALLY IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.  IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY WITH THIS
SYSTEM...K INDICES TO THE UPPER 30S AND CAPES INCREASING TO 1000-
1500 J/KG WED AFTERNOON ALONG WITH GOOD SW SHEAR /H925 WINDS AROUND
30 KT AND H85 WINDS 30-35 KT/ ALONG WITH A STRONG UPPER JET PASSING
ACROSS. H5 COLD POOL ALSO SNEAKS IN...WITH TEMPS DOWN TO -10C TO
-12C WED AFTERNOON. SO...WILL BE MONITORING THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH TOWARD THE S
COAST WED NIGHT THEN LOOKS TO STALL A BIT FURTHER DOWN THE COAST.
WILL STILL SEE LEFTOVER SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS BUT SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE
BY MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO DEVELOP MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THEN...ON THURSDAY...SKIES WILL START OFF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY.
HOWEVER...WITH THE H5 COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SEE SOME SCT DIURNAL
SHOWERS DEVELOP MAINLY INLAND. ONLY CARRIED 20-30 PCT CHANCE MAINLY
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS SHOULD END WITH
SUNSET.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY DUE TO WIDE MODEL
SOLUTIONS. AT THIS POINT...SHOULD BE A DRY DAY FOR MOST OF FRIDAY
BEFORE MORE SCT SHOWERS MOVE IN. LOTS OF QUESTIONS ABOUT WHETHER A
WAVE OF LOW PRES FORMS ON STALLED FRONT TO THE S THAT MAY BRING MORE
MOISTURE FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. CARRIED ONLY CHANCE
POPS FOR THIS. TIMING IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION FOR YET ANOTHER FAST
MOVING SYSTEM LATE THIS WEEKEND. TEMPS OVER THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND
LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO OR ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

BEFORE 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH DUE TO LOW CLOUDS...AREAS OF FOG/DRIZZLE ALONG
WITH PASSING SHOWER OR TWO. MOISTURE WILL REMAINED TRAPPED JUST
BELOW THE INVERSION.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR THANKS TO DRIER AIR
WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
IN RADIATIONAL FOG.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WITH WARM FRONT PASSING
TO THE WEST. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECT AND A
FEW -SHRA/ISO -TSRA IS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGHEST RISK FOR SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE WED WITH GUSTY WINDS. MVFR
LIKELY. LOCAL IFR IN ANY PATCHY FOG LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...LEFTOVER MVFR CONDITIONS IN ANY
SHOWERS/TSTMS EARLY WED NIGHT...THEN TRENDING TOWARD VFR WITH
SHOWERS ENDING. LOW CHANCE FOR SPOTTY SHOWERS LATE THU MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INLAND...BRIEF LOCAL MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...

OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES FOR SEAS WILL CONTINUE FROM LEFTOVER SWELL
THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUNDS AND ALL OUTER WATERS.
AREAS OF FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES FOR MARINERS INTO
MONDAY MORNING.

MAY ALSO SEE A PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS
ACROSS BUZZARDS BAY/NANTUCKET SOUND AND CAPE COD BAY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IF CONFIDENCE ON THE NEXT SHIFT GROWS...THEY MAY NEEDED
TO BE ADDED TO THE SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES FOR A TIME.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...LEFTOVER SW GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS WILL END EARLY. SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 5-7 FT EARLY ON THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY.

TUESDAY...EXPECT LIGHT S WINDS AND SEAS 4 FT OR LESS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...EXPECT S-SW WINDS TO INCREASE AHEAD
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GUSTS TO 20 KT MAINLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS. SEAS BUILDING UP TO 5-6 FT MAINLY ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG WITH PATCHY
FOG.

THURSDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO W AND DIMINISH. SEAS REMAIN AROUND 5 FT
ON THE OUTER WATERS.

FRIDAY...LIGHT WINDS BECOME E-SE. MAY SEE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS.
PATCHY FOG REDUCING VSBYS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...

KBOX WSR-88D IS OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL AN UNKNOWN TIME. TECHNICIANS
HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED AND WILL LOOK INTO THE ISSUE THIS MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DUNTEN/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290606
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
206 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
JUST A FEW SPOT SHOWERS WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL. WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOME
STORMS ON WEDNESDAY MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE ALONG WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. SPOTTY SHOWERS LINGER INTO THURSDAY. DRY AND MILD
WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT
APPROACHES BRINGING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE FRI INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

200 AM UPDATE...

SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE STRATUS AND DRIZZLE ACROSS THE
REGION. A FEW SCT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS CT AND WESTERN
MASS. THIS WILL CONTINUE A NE TRAJECTORY AS SURFACE LOW MOVES
TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. ON THE BACKSIDE...WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY
SHIFT TO THE WEST DRYING THE REGION OUT.

OTHERWISE TEMPS WONT MOVE MUCH THANKS TO OVERCAST SKY COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL BE THE MAIN
STORY WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION. DO NOT
EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO BE WIDESPREAD OR DENSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
ADVISORY...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S WITH SOME LOWER 60S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
MONDAY...

BIGGEST QUESTION MARK FOR MONDAY IS HOW QUICKLY LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN
OFF.  WE MAY STILL BE DEALING WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS IN THE
MORNING...BUT SHOULD SEE SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE EMERGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS OUR
NORTHWEST ZONES WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE...BUT PRETTY MUCH A DRY DAY ON
TAP. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 70S...SO IN A NUTSHELL MUCH BETTER
THEN TODAY.

BEACH FORECAST...

A MODERATE TO EVEN HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED
ON SOME OF OUR OCEAN EXPOSED BEACHES ON MONDAY.  HIGH SURF
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING...BUT THE NEXT
SHIFT MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT FOR MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
  WEDNESDAY...THEN SPOTTY SHOWERS LINGER INTO THURSDAY
* SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
* DRY AND MILD THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
* ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH MORE
  SCT SHOWERS

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

12Z OP MODEL SOLUTIONS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INTO WED NIGHT...THEN
SOLUTIONS WIDEN IN THE RESPONSE TO THE POSSIBLE BREAKING DOWN OF THE
LONG WAVE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/TROUGH ACROSS NORTH AMERICA
LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IT APPEARS THAT THE
TROUGHING BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED OVER TIME ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...
WHICH PRESENTS PROBLEMS IN TRYING TO TIME SENSIBLE WEATHER SURFACE
SYSTEMS IN THIS FAST FLOW ALOFT. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FROM THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ANY APPROACHING SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY AS THE
NORTHERN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE. DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME
BREAKS IN THE ACTION BETWEEN EACH SYSTEM SO THERE WILL BE SOME DRY
PERIODS AS WELL. 12Z OP MODEL SUITE CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A RATHER
STRONG SYSTEM DURING THE TUE NIGHT/WED TIMEFRAME WHICH CONTINUES TO
HAVE VERY GOOD MODEL SUPPORT AND AGREEMENT.

PLAN ON USING BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH WED NIGHT
THEN WILL TRANSITION OVER TO ENSEMBLES /GEFS AND ECENS/ FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE LARGE TIMING AND TRACK
DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS.

DETAILS...

MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING PUSHES QUICKLY ACROSS THE
REGION...SO EXPECT DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
CLOUDS MAY START TO INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS WESTERN AREAS.
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...RANGING TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

TUESDAY...NEXT SURFACE LOW AND FRONT SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE W IN
THE NEARLY PARALLEL UPPER LEVEL SW WIND FLOW. WILL SEE INCREASING
CLOUDS DURING THE DAY BUT...DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT...LOOKS LIKE BULK
OF THE PRECIP REMAINS W OF THE REGION. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS WORK
INTO THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES. GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION WORKING
IN THE SW FLOW SO EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY AROUND 80...JUST ABOUT AT THE
SEASONAL NORM FOR LATE JUNE.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...AS THE H5 SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT
SLOWLY APPROACH TUE NIGHT...WILL START TO SEE SCT SHOWERS MOVE IN
EARLY. BETTER DYNAMICS AND SCT ELEVATED CONVECTION LOOK TO APPROACH
AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AREAS THEN SHIFTS E TOWARD
DAYBREAK WED.

BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO OCCUR DURING WED...AND HAVE MENTIONED
SPOTTY CATEGORICAL POPS INLAND. WITH THE SW UPPER FLOW IN PLACE...
THIS SYSTEM REMAINS A SLOW MOVER. DEWPTS FORECAST TO RISE TO THE MID
AND UPPER 60S ALONG WITH PWATS INCREASING WITH THE SW FLOW...ON
ORDER OF 1.7 TO 1.9 INCHES. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL
ESPECIALLY IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.  IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY WITH THIS
SYSTEM...K INDICES TO THE UPPER 30S AND CAPES INCREASING TO 1000-
1500 J/KG WED AFTERNOON ALONG WITH GOOD SW SHEAR /H925 WINDS AROUND
30 KT AND H85 WINDS 30-35 KT/ ALONG WITH A STRONG UPPER JET PASSING
ACROSS. H5 COLD POOL ALSO SNEAKS IN...WITH TEMPS DOWN TO -10C TO
-12C WED AFTERNOON. SO...WILL BE MONITORING THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH TOWARD THE S
COAST WED NIGHT THEN LOOKS TO STALL A BIT FURTHER DOWN THE COAST.
WILL STILL SEE LEFTOVER SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS BUT SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE
BY MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO DEVELOP MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THEN...ON THURSDAY...SKIES WILL START OFF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY.
HOWEVER...WITH THE H5 COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SEE SOME SCT DIURNAL
SHOWERS DEVELOP MAINLY INLAND. ONLY CARRIED 20-30 PCT CHANCE MAINLY
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS SHOULD END WITH
SUNSET.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY DUE TO WIDE MODEL
SOLUTIONS. AT THIS POINT...SHOULD BE A DRY DAY FOR MOST OF FRIDAY
BEFORE MORE SCT SHOWERS MOVE IN. LOTS OF QUESTIONS ABOUT WHETHER A
WAVE OF LOW PRES FORMS ON STALLED FRONT TO THE S THAT MAY BRING MORE
MOISTURE FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. CARRIED ONLY CHANCE
POPS FOR THIS. TIMING IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION FOR YET ANOTHER FAST
MOVING SYSTEM LATE THIS WEEKEND. TEMPS OVER THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND
LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO OR ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

BEFORE 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH DUE TO LOW CLOUDS...AREAS OF FOG/DRIZZLE ALONG
WITH PASSING SHOWER OR TWO. MOISTURE WILL REMAINED TRAPPED JUST
BELOW THE INVERSION.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR THANKS TO DRIER AIR
WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
IN RADIATIONAL FOG.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WITH WARM FRONT PASSING
TO THE WEST. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECT AND A
FEW -SHRA/ISO -TSRA IS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGHEST RISK FOR SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE WED WITH GUSTY WINDS. MVFR
LIKELY. LOCAL IFR IN ANY PATCHY FOG LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...LEFTOVER MVFR CONDITIONS IN ANY
SHOWERS/TSTMS EARLY WED NIGHT...THEN TRENDING TOWARD VFR WITH
SHOWERS ENDING. LOW CHANCE FOR SPOTTY SHOWERS LATE THU MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INLAND...BRIEF LOCAL MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...

OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES FOR SEAS WILL CONTINUE FROM LEFTOVER SWELL
THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUNDS AND ALL OUTER WATERS.
AREAS OF FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES FOR MARINERS INTO
MONDAY MORNING.

MAY ALSO SEE A PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS
ACROSS BUZZARDS BAY/NANTUCKET SOUND AND CAPE COD BAY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IF CONFIDENCE ON THE NEXT SHIFT GROWS...THEY MAY NEEDED
TO BE ADDED TO THE SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES FOR A TIME.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...LEFTOVER SW GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS WILL END EARLY. SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 5-7 FT EARLY ON THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY.

TUESDAY...EXPECT LIGHT S WINDS AND SEAS 4 FT OR LESS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...EXPECT S-SW WINDS TO INCREASE AHEAD
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GUSTS TO 20 KT MAINLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS. SEAS BUILDING UP TO 5-6 FT MAINLY ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG WITH PATCHY
FOG.

THURSDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO W AND DIMINISH. SEAS REMAIN AROUND 5 FT
ON THE OUTER WATERS.

FRIDAY...LIGHT WINDS BECOME E-SE. MAY SEE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS.
PATCHY FOG REDUCING VSBYS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...

KBOX WSR-88D IS OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL AN UNKNOWN TIME. TECHNICIANS
HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED AND WILL LOOK INTO THE ISSUE THIS MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DUNTEN/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290606
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
206 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
JUST A FEW SPOT SHOWERS WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL. WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOME
STORMS ON WEDNESDAY MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE ALONG WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. SPOTTY SHOWERS LINGER INTO THURSDAY. DRY AND MILD
WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT
APPROACHES BRINGING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE FRI INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

200 AM UPDATE...

SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE STRATUS AND DRIZZLE ACROSS THE
REGION. A FEW SCT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS CT AND WESTERN
MASS. THIS WILL CONTINUE A NE TRAJECTORY AS SURFACE LOW MOVES
TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. ON THE BACKSIDE...WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY
SHIFT TO THE WEST DRYING THE REGION OUT.

OTHERWISE TEMPS WONT MOVE MUCH THANKS TO OVERCAST SKY COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL BE THE MAIN
STORY WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION. DO NOT
EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO BE WIDESPREAD OR DENSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
ADVISORY...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S WITH SOME LOWER 60S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
MONDAY...

BIGGEST QUESTION MARK FOR MONDAY IS HOW QUICKLY LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN
OFF.  WE MAY STILL BE DEALING WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS IN THE
MORNING...BUT SHOULD SEE SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE EMERGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS OUR
NORTHWEST ZONES WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE...BUT PRETTY MUCH A DRY DAY ON
TAP. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 70S...SO IN A NUTSHELL MUCH BETTER
THEN TODAY.

BEACH FORECAST...

A MODERATE TO EVEN HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED
ON SOME OF OUR OCEAN EXPOSED BEACHES ON MONDAY.  HIGH SURF
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING...BUT THE NEXT
SHIFT MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT FOR MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
  WEDNESDAY...THEN SPOTTY SHOWERS LINGER INTO THURSDAY
* SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
* DRY AND MILD THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
* ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH MORE
  SCT SHOWERS

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

12Z OP MODEL SOLUTIONS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INTO WED NIGHT...THEN
SOLUTIONS WIDEN IN THE RESPONSE TO THE POSSIBLE BREAKING DOWN OF THE
LONG WAVE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/TROUGH ACROSS NORTH AMERICA
LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IT APPEARS THAT THE
TROUGHING BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED OVER TIME ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...
WHICH PRESENTS PROBLEMS IN TRYING TO TIME SENSIBLE WEATHER SURFACE
SYSTEMS IN THIS FAST FLOW ALOFT. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FROM THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ANY APPROACHING SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY AS THE
NORTHERN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE. DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME
BREAKS IN THE ACTION BETWEEN EACH SYSTEM SO THERE WILL BE SOME DRY
PERIODS AS WELL. 12Z OP MODEL SUITE CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A RATHER
STRONG SYSTEM DURING THE TUE NIGHT/WED TIMEFRAME WHICH CONTINUES TO
HAVE VERY GOOD MODEL SUPPORT AND AGREEMENT.

PLAN ON USING BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH WED NIGHT
THEN WILL TRANSITION OVER TO ENSEMBLES /GEFS AND ECENS/ FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE LARGE TIMING AND TRACK
DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS.

DETAILS...

MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING PUSHES QUICKLY ACROSS THE
REGION...SO EXPECT DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
CLOUDS MAY START TO INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS WESTERN AREAS.
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...RANGING TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

TUESDAY...NEXT SURFACE LOW AND FRONT SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE W IN
THE NEARLY PARALLEL UPPER LEVEL SW WIND FLOW. WILL SEE INCREASING
CLOUDS DURING THE DAY BUT...DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT...LOOKS LIKE BULK
OF THE PRECIP REMAINS W OF THE REGION. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS WORK
INTO THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES. GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION WORKING
IN THE SW FLOW SO EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY AROUND 80...JUST ABOUT AT THE
SEASONAL NORM FOR LATE JUNE.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...AS THE H5 SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT
SLOWLY APPROACH TUE NIGHT...WILL START TO SEE SCT SHOWERS MOVE IN
EARLY. BETTER DYNAMICS AND SCT ELEVATED CONVECTION LOOK TO APPROACH
AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AREAS THEN SHIFTS E TOWARD
DAYBREAK WED.

BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO OCCUR DURING WED...AND HAVE MENTIONED
SPOTTY CATEGORICAL POPS INLAND. WITH THE SW UPPER FLOW IN PLACE...
THIS SYSTEM REMAINS A SLOW MOVER. DEWPTS FORECAST TO RISE TO THE MID
AND UPPER 60S ALONG WITH PWATS INCREASING WITH THE SW FLOW...ON
ORDER OF 1.7 TO 1.9 INCHES. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL
ESPECIALLY IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.  IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY WITH THIS
SYSTEM...K INDICES TO THE UPPER 30S AND CAPES INCREASING TO 1000-
1500 J/KG WED AFTERNOON ALONG WITH GOOD SW SHEAR /H925 WINDS AROUND
30 KT AND H85 WINDS 30-35 KT/ ALONG WITH A STRONG UPPER JET PASSING
ACROSS. H5 COLD POOL ALSO SNEAKS IN...WITH TEMPS DOWN TO -10C TO
-12C WED AFTERNOON. SO...WILL BE MONITORING THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH TOWARD THE S
COAST WED NIGHT THEN LOOKS TO STALL A BIT FURTHER DOWN THE COAST.
WILL STILL SEE LEFTOVER SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS BUT SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE
BY MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO DEVELOP MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THEN...ON THURSDAY...SKIES WILL START OFF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY.
HOWEVER...WITH THE H5 COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SEE SOME SCT DIURNAL
SHOWERS DEVELOP MAINLY INLAND. ONLY CARRIED 20-30 PCT CHANCE MAINLY
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS SHOULD END WITH
SUNSET.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY DUE TO WIDE MODEL
SOLUTIONS. AT THIS POINT...SHOULD BE A DRY DAY FOR MOST OF FRIDAY
BEFORE MORE SCT SHOWERS MOVE IN. LOTS OF QUESTIONS ABOUT WHETHER A
WAVE OF LOW PRES FORMS ON STALLED FRONT TO THE S THAT MAY BRING MORE
MOISTURE FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. CARRIED ONLY CHANCE
POPS FOR THIS. TIMING IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION FOR YET ANOTHER FAST
MOVING SYSTEM LATE THIS WEEKEND. TEMPS OVER THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND
LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO OR ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

BEFORE 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH DUE TO LOW CLOUDS...AREAS OF FOG/DRIZZLE ALONG
WITH PASSING SHOWER OR TWO. MOISTURE WILL REMAINED TRAPPED JUST
BELOW THE INVERSION.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR THANKS TO DRIER AIR
WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
IN RADIATIONAL FOG.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WITH WARM FRONT PASSING
TO THE WEST. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECT AND A
FEW -SHRA/ISO -TSRA IS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGHEST RISK FOR SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE WED WITH GUSTY WINDS. MVFR
LIKELY. LOCAL IFR IN ANY PATCHY FOG LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...LEFTOVER MVFR CONDITIONS IN ANY
SHOWERS/TSTMS EARLY WED NIGHT...THEN TRENDING TOWARD VFR WITH
SHOWERS ENDING. LOW CHANCE FOR SPOTTY SHOWERS LATE THU MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INLAND...BRIEF LOCAL MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...

OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES FOR SEAS WILL CONTINUE FROM LEFTOVER SWELL
THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUNDS AND ALL OUTER WATERS.
AREAS OF FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES FOR MARINERS INTO
MONDAY MORNING.

MAY ALSO SEE A PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS
ACROSS BUZZARDS BAY/NANTUCKET SOUND AND CAPE COD BAY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IF CONFIDENCE ON THE NEXT SHIFT GROWS...THEY MAY NEEDED
TO BE ADDED TO THE SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES FOR A TIME.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...LEFTOVER SW GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS WILL END EARLY. SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 5-7 FT EARLY ON THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY.

TUESDAY...EXPECT LIGHT S WINDS AND SEAS 4 FT OR LESS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...EXPECT S-SW WINDS TO INCREASE AHEAD
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GUSTS TO 20 KT MAINLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS. SEAS BUILDING UP TO 5-6 FT MAINLY ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG WITH PATCHY
FOG.

THURSDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO W AND DIMINISH. SEAS REMAIN AROUND 5 FT
ON THE OUTER WATERS.

FRIDAY...LIGHT WINDS BECOME E-SE. MAY SEE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS.
PATCHY FOG REDUCING VSBYS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...

KBOX WSR-88D IS OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL AN UNKNOWN TIME. TECHNICIANS
HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED AND WILL LOOK INTO THE ISSUE THIS MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DUNTEN/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290606
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
206 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
JUST A FEW SPOT SHOWERS WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL. WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOME
STORMS ON WEDNESDAY MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE ALONG WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. SPOTTY SHOWERS LINGER INTO THURSDAY. DRY AND MILD
WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT
APPROACHES BRINGING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE FRI INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

200 AM UPDATE...

SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE STRATUS AND DRIZZLE ACROSS THE
REGION. A FEW SCT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS CT AND WESTERN
MASS. THIS WILL CONTINUE A NE TRAJECTORY AS SURFACE LOW MOVES
TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. ON THE BACKSIDE...WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY
SHIFT TO THE WEST DRYING THE REGION OUT.

OTHERWISE TEMPS WONT MOVE MUCH THANKS TO OVERCAST SKY COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL BE THE MAIN
STORY WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION. DO NOT
EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO BE WIDESPREAD OR DENSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
ADVISORY...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S WITH SOME LOWER 60S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
MONDAY...

BIGGEST QUESTION MARK FOR MONDAY IS HOW QUICKLY LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN
OFF.  WE MAY STILL BE DEALING WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS IN THE
MORNING...BUT SHOULD SEE SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE EMERGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS OUR
NORTHWEST ZONES WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE...BUT PRETTY MUCH A DRY DAY ON
TAP. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 70S...SO IN A NUTSHELL MUCH BETTER
THEN TODAY.

BEACH FORECAST...

A MODERATE TO EVEN HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED
ON SOME OF OUR OCEAN EXPOSED BEACHES ON MONDAY.  HIGH SURF
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING...BUT THE NEXT
SHIFT MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT FOR MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
  WEDNESDAY...THEN SPOTTY SHOWERS LINGER INTO THURSDAY
* SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
* DRY AND MILD THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
* ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH MORE
  SCT SHOWERS

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

12Z OP MODEL SOLUTIONS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INTO WED NIGHT...THEN
SOLUTIONS WIDEN IN THE RESPONSE TO THE POSSIBLE BREAKING DOWN OF THE
LONG WAVE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/TROUGH ACROSS NORTH AMERICA
LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IT APPEARS THAT THE
TROUGHING BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED OVER TIME ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...
WHICH PRESENTS PROBLEMS IN TRYING TO TIME SENSIBLE WEATHER SURFACE
SYSTEMS IN THIS FAST FLOW ALOFT. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FROM THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ANY APPROACHING SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY AS THE
NORTHERN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE. DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME
BREAKS IN THE ACTION BETWEEN EACH SYSTEM SO THERE WILL BE SOME DRY
PERIODS AS WELL. 12Z OP MODEL SUITE CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A RATHER
STRONG SYSTEM DURING THE TUE NIGHT/WED TIMEFRAME WHICH CONTINUES TO
HAVE VERY GOOD MODEL SUPPORT AND AGREEMENT.

PLAN ON USING BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH WED NIGHT
THEN WILL TRANSITION OVER TO ENSEMBLES /GEFS AND ECENS/ FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE LARGE TIMING AND TRACK
DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS.

DETAILS...

MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING PUSHES QUICKLY ACROSS THE
REGION...SO EXPECT DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
CLOUDS MAY START TO INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS WESTERN AREAS.
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...RANGING TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

TUESDAY...NEXT SURFACE LOW AND FRONT SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE W IN
THE NEARLY PARALLEL UPPER LEVEL SW WIND FLOW. WILL SEE INCREASING
CLOUDS DURING THE DAY BUT...DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT...LOOKS LIKE BULK
OF THE PRECIP REMAINS W OF THE REGION. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS WORK
INTO THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES. GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION WORKING
IN THE SW FLOW SO EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY AROUND 80...JUST ABOUT AT THE
SEASONAL NORM FOR LATE JUNE.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...AS THE H5 SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT
SLOWLY APPROACH TUE NIGHT...WILL START TO SEE SCT SHOWERS MOVE IN
EARLY. BETTER DYNAMICS AND SCT ELEVATED CONVECTION LOOK TO APPROACH
AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AREAS THEN SHIFTS E TOWARD
DAYBREAK WED.

BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO OCCUR DURING WED...AND HAVE MENTIONED
SPOTTY CATEGORICAL POPS INLAND. WITH THE SW UPPER FLOW IN PLACE...
THIS SYSTEM REMAINS A SLOW MOVER. DEWPTS FORECAST TO RISE TO THE MID
AND UPPER 60S ALONG WITH PWATS INCREASING WITH THE SW FLOW...ON
ORDER OF 1.7 TO 1.9 INCHES. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL
ESPECIALLY IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.  IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY WITH THIS
SYSTEM...K INDICES TO THE UPPER 30S AND CAPES INCREASING TO 1000-
1500 J/KG WED AFTERNOON ALONG WITH GOOD SW SHEAR /H925 WINDS AROUND
30 KT AND H85 WINDS 30-35 KT/ ALONG WITH A STRONG UPPER JET PASSING
ACROSS. H5 COLD POOL ALSO SNEAKS IN...WITH TEMPS DOWN TO -10C TO
-12C WED AFTERNOON. SO...WILL BE MONITORING THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH TOWARD THE S
COAST WED NIGHT THEN LOOKS TO STALL A BIT FURTHER DOWN THE COAST.
WILL STILL SEE LEFTOVER SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS BUT SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE
BY MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO DEVELOP MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THEN...ON THURSDAY...SKIES WILL START OFF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY.
HOWEVER...WITH THE H5 COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SEE SOME SCT DIURNAL
SHOWERS DEVELOP MAINLY INLAND. ONLY CARRIED 20-30 PCT CHANCE MAINLY
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS SHOULD END WITH
SUNSET.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY DUE TO WIDE MODEL
SOLUTIONS. AT THIS POINT...SHOULD BE A DRY DAY FOR MOST OF FRIDAY
BEFORE MORE SCT SHOWERS MOVE IN. LOTS OF QUESTIONS ABOUT WHETHER A
WAVE OF LOW PRES FORMS ON STALLED FRONT TO THE S THAT MAY BRING MORE
MOISTURE FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. CARRIED ONLY CHANCE
POPS FOR THIS. TIMING IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION FOR YET ANOTHER FAST
MOVING SYSTEM LATE THIS WEEKEND. TEMPS OVER THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND
LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO OR ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

BEFORE 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH DUE TO LOW CLOUDS...AREAS OF FOG/DRIZZLE ALONG
WITH PASSING SHOWER OR TWO. MOISTURE WILL REMAINED TRAPPED JUST
BELOW THE INVERSION.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR THANKS TO DRIER AIR
WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
IN RADIATIONAL FOG.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WITH WARM FRONT PASSING
TO THE WEST. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECT AND A
FEW -SHRA/ISO -TSRA IS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGHEST RISK FOR SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE WED WITH GUSTY WINDS. MVFR
LIKELY. LOCAL IFR IN ANY PATCHY FOG LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...LEFTOVER MVFR CONDITIONS IN ANY
SHOWERS/TSTMS EARLY WED NIGHT...THEN TRENDING TOWARD VFR WITH
SHOWERS ENDING. LOW CHANCE FOR SPOTTY SHOWERS LATE THU MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INLAND...BRIEF LOCAL MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...

OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES FOR SEAS WILL CONTINUE FROM LEFTOVER SWELL
THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUNDS AND ALL OUTER WATERS.
AREAS OF FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES FOR MARINERS INTO
MONDAY MORNING.

MAY ALSO SEE A PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS
ACROSS BUZZARDS BAY/NANTUCKET SOUND AND CAPE COD BAY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IF CONFIDENCE ON THE NEXT SHIFT GROWS...THEY MAY NEEDED
TO BE ADDED TO THE SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES FOR A TIME.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...LEFTOVER SW GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS WILL END EARLY. SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 5-7 FT EARLY ON THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY.

TUESDAY...EXPECT LIGHT S WINDS AND SEAS 4 FT OR LESS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...EXPECT S-SW WINDS TO INCREASE AHEAD
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GUSTS TO 20 KT MAINLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS. SEAS BUILDING UP TO 5-6 FT MAINLY ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG WITH PATCHY
FOG.

THURSDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO W AND DIMINISH. SEAS REMAIN AROUND 5 FT
ON THE OUTER WATERS.

FRIDAY...LIGHT WINDS BECOME E-SE. MAY SEE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS.
PATCHY FOG REDUCING VSBYS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...

KBOX WSR-88D IS OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL AN UNKNOWN TIME. TECHNICIANS
HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED AND WILL LOOK INTO THE ISSUE THIS MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DUNTEN/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290214
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1014 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
JUST A FEW SPOT SHOWERS WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL. WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOME
STORMS ON WEDNESDAY MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE ALONG WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. SPOTTY SHOWERS LINGER INTO THURSDAY. DRY AND MILD
WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT
APPROACHES BRINGING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE FRI INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

1030 PM UPDATE...

ISSUES WITH FAA COMMS HAS CAUSED A OBSERVATION DATA OUTAGE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING THANKS TO TRAPPED MOISTURE FROM SHALLOW INVERSION.
HOWEVER GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THE DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY DROP FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. HOWEVER WITH WEAK FLOW THINK FOG WILL CONTINUE FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE IF DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED.

SECONDARY SURFACE LOW HAS MOVED INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY. SCT
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED THANKS TO WEAK LIFT FROM THE LOW AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE. THESE SCT SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION ACROSS CT AND INTO WESTERN MASS AND SHOULD PASS THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE TEMPS WONT MOVE MUCH THANKS TO OVERCAST SKY COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL BE THE MAIN
STORY WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION. DO NOT
EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO BE WIDESPREAD OR DENSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
ADVISORY...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S WITH SOME LOWER 60S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MONDAY...

BIGGEST QUESTION MARK FOR MONDAY IS HOW QUICKLY LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN
OFF.  WE MAY STILL BE DEALING WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS IN THE
MORNING...BUT SHOULD SEE SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE EMERGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS OUR
NORTHWEST ZONES WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE...BUT PRETTY MUCH A DRY DAY ON
TAP. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 70S...SO IN A NUTSHELL MUCH BETTER
THEN TODAY.

BEACH FORECAST...

A MODERATE TO EVEN HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED
ON SOME OF OUR OCEAN EXPOSED BEACHES ON MONDAY.  HIGH SURF
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING...BUT THE NEXT
SHIFT MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT FOR MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
  WEDNESDAY...THEN SPOTTY SHOWERS LINGER INTO THURSDAY
* SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
* DRY AND MILD THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
* ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH MORE
  SCT SHOWERS

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

12Z OP MODEL SOLUTIONS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INTO WED NIGHT...THEN
SOLUTIONS WIDEN IN THE RESPONSE TO THE POSSIBLE BREAKING DOWN OF THE
LONG WAVE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/TROUGH ACROSS NORTH AMERICA
LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IT APPEARS THAT THE
TROUGHING BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED OVER TIME ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...
WHICH PRESENTS PROBLEMS IN TRYING TO TIME SENSIBLE WEATHER SURFACE
SYSTEMS IN THIS FAST FLOW ALOFT. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FROM THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ANY APPROACHING SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY AS THE
NORTHERN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE. DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME
BREAKS IN THE ACTION BETWEEN EACH SYSTEM SO THERE WILL BE SOME DRY
PERIODS AS WELL. 12Z OP MODEL SUITE CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A RATHER
STRONG SYSTEM DURING THE TUE NIGHT/WED TIMEFRAME WHICH CONTINUES TO
HAVE VERY GOOD MODEL SUPPORT AND AGREEMENT.

PLAN ON USING BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH WED NIGHT
THEN WILL TRANSITION OVER TO ENSEMBLES /GEFS AND ECENS/ FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE LARGE TIMING AND TRACK
DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS.

DETAILS...

MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING PUSHES QUICKLY ACROSS THE
REGION...SO EXPECT DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
CLOUDS MAY START TO INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS WESTERN AREAS.
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...RANGING TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

TUESDAY...NEXT SURFACE LOW AND FRONT SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE W IN
THE NEARLY PARALLEL UPPER LEVEL SW WIND FLOW. WILL SEE INCREASING
CLOUDS DURING THE DAY BUT...DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT...LOOKS LIKE BULK
OF THE PRECIP REMAINS W OF THE REGION. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS WORK
INTO THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES. GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION WORKING
IN THE SW FLOW SO EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY AROUND 80...JUST ABOUT AT THE
SEASONAL NORM FOR LATE JUNE.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...AS THE H5 SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT
SLOWLY APPROACH TUE NIGHT...WILL START TO SEE SCT SHOWERS MOVE IN
EARLY. BETTER DYNAMICS AND SCT ELEVATED CONVECTION LOOK TO APPROACH
AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AREAS THEN SHIFTS E TOWARD
DAYBREAK WED.

BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO OCCUR DURING WED...AND HAVE MENTIONED
SPOTTY CATEGORICAL POPS INLAND. WITH THE SW UPPER FLOW IN PLACE...
THIS SYSTEM REMAINS A SLOW MOVER. DEWPTS FORECAST TO RISE TO THE MID
AND UPPER 60S ALONG WITH PWATS INCREASING WITH THE SW FLOW...ON
ORDER OF 1.7 TO 1.9 INCHES. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL
ESPECIALLY IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.  IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY WITH THIS
SYSTEM...K INDICES TO THE UPPER 30S AND CAPES INCREASING TO 1000-
1500 J/KG WED AFTERNOON ALONG WITH GOOD SW SHEAR /H925 WINDS AROUND
30 KT AND H85 WINDS 30-35 KT/ ALONG WITH A STRONG UPPER JET PASSING
ACROSS. H5 COLD POOL ALSO SNEAKS IN...WITH TEMPS DOWN TO -10C TO
-12C WED AFTERNOON. SO...WILL BE MONITORING THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH TOWARD THE S
COAST WED NIGHT THEN LOOKS TO STALL A BIT FURTHER DOWN THE COAST.
WILL STILL SEE LEFTOVER SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS BUT SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE
BY MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO DEVELOP MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THEN...ON THURSDAY...SKIES WILL START OFF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY.
HOWEVER...WITH THE H5 COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SEE SOME SCT DIURNAL
SHOWERS DEVELOP MAINLY INLAND. ONLY CARRIED 20-30 PCT CHANCE MAINLY
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS SHOULD END WITH
SUNSET.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY DUE TO WIDE MODEL
SOLUTIONS. AT THIS POINT...SHOULD BE A DRY DAY FOR MOST OF FRIDAY
BEFORE MORE SCT SHOWERS MOVE IN. LOTS OF QUESTIONS ABOUT WHETHER A
WAVE OF LOW PRES FORMS ON STALLED FRONT TO THE S THAT MAY BRING MORE
MOISTURE FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. CARRIED ONLY CHANCE
POPS FOR THIS. TIMING IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION FOR YET ANOTHER FAST
MOVING SYSTEM LATE THIS WEEKEND. TEMPS OVER THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND
LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO OR ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

OVERNIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY IFR TO EVEN
LOCALIZED LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT IN LOW
CLOUDS...AREAS OF FOG/DRIZZLE ALONG WITH PASSING SHOWER OR TWO.
MOISTURE WILL REMAINED TRAPPED JUST BELOW THE INVERSION.

MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES IN THE MORNING SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR BUT IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFTERNOON FOR THIS TO HAPPEN IN
SOME LOCATIONS.  THIS AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF...BUT UNCERTAIN
AS TO EXACTLY WHEN CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN VFR ON MONDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF...BUT UNCERTAIN
AS TO EXACTLY WHEN CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN VFR ON MONDAY

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY...VFR MOST AREAS. PATCHY FOG EARLY TUE WITH LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY AROUND 14Z. LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS N CT INTO WESTERN-CENTRAL MA IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGHEST RISK FOR SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE WED WITH GUSTY WINDS. MVFR
LIKELY. LOCAL IFR IN ANY PATCHY FOG LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...LEFTOVER MVFR CONDITIONS IN ANY
SHOWERS/TSTMS EARLY WED NIGHT...THEN TRENDING TOWARD VFR WITH
SHOWERS ENDING. LOW CHANCE FOR SPOTTY SHOWERS LATE THU MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INLAND...BRIEF LOCAL MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...

OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES FOR SEAS WILL CONTINUE FROM LEFTOVER SWELL
THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUNDS AND ALL OUTER WATERS.
AREAS OF FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES FOR MARINERS INTO
MONDAY MORNING.

MAY ALSO SEE A PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS
ACROSS BUZZARDS BAY/NANTUCKET SOUND AND CAPE COD BAY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IF CONFIDENCE ON THE NEXT SHIFT GROWS...THEY MAY NEEDED
TO BE ADDED TO THE SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES FOR A TIME.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...LEFTOVER SW GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS WILL END EARLY. SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 5-7 FT EARLY ON THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY.

TUESDAY...EXPECT LIGHT S WINDS AND SEAS 4 FT OR LESS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...EXPECT S-SW WINDS TO INCREASE AHEAD
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GUSTS TO 20 KT MAINLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS. SEAS BUILDING UP TO 5-6 FT MAINLY ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG WITH PATCHY
FOG.

THURSDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO W AND DIMINISH. SEAS REMAIN AROUND 5 FT
ON THE OUTER WATERS.

FRIDAY...LIGHT WINDS BECOME E-SE. MAY SEE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS.
PATCHY FOG REDUCING VSBYS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 290214
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1014 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
JUST A FEW SPOT SHOWERS WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL. WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOME
STORMS ON WEDNESDAY MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE ALONG WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. SPOTTY SHOWERS LINGER INTO THURSDAY. DRY AND MILD
WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT
APPROACHES BRINGING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE FRI INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

1030 PM UPDATE...

ISSUES WITH FAA COMMS HAS CAUSED A OBSERVATION DATA OUTAGE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING THANKS TO TRAPPED MOISTURE FROM SHALLOW INVERSION.
HOWEVER GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THE DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY DROP FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. HOWEVER WITH WEAK FLOW THINK FOG WILL CONTINUE FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE IF DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED.

SECONDARY SURFACE LOW HAS MOVED INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY. SCT
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED THANKS TO WEAK LIFT FROM THE LOW AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE. THESE SCT SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION ACROSS CT AND INTO WESTERN MASS AND SHOULD PASS THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE TEMPS WONT MOVE MUCH THANKS TO OVERCAST SKY COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL BE THE MAIN
STORY WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION. DO NOT
EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO BE WIDESPREAD OR DENSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
ADVISORY...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S WITH SOME LOWER 60S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MONDAY...

BIGGEST QUESTION MARK FOR MONDAY IS HOW QUICKLY LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN
OFF.  WE MAY STILL BE DEALING WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS IN THE
MORNING...BUT SHOULD SEE SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE EMERGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS OUR
NORTHWEST ZONES WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE...BUT PRETTY MUCH A DRY DAY ON
TAP. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 70S...SO IN A NUTSHELL MUCH BETTER
THEN TODAY.

BEACH FORECAST...

A MODERATE TO EVEN HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED
ON SOME OF OUR OCEAN EXPOSED BEACHES ON MONDAY.  HIGH SURF
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING...BUT THE NEXT
SHIFT MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT FOR MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
  WEDNESDAY...THEN SPOTTY SHOWERS LINGER INTO THURSDAY
* SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
* DRY AND MILD THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
* ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH MORE
  SCT SHOWERS

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

12Z OP MODEL SOLUTIONS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INTO WED NIGHT...THEN
SOLUTIONS WIDEN IN THE RESPONSE TO THE POSSIBLE BREAKING DOWN OF THE
LONG WAVE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/TROUGH ACROSS NORTH AMERICA
LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IT APPEARS THAT THE
TROUGHING BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED OVER TIME ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...
WHICH PRESENTS PROBLEMS IN TRYING TO TIME SENSIBLE WEATHER SURFACE
SYSTEMS IN THIS FAST FLOW ALOFT. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FROM THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ANY APPROACHING SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY AS THE
NORTHERN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE. DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME
BREAKS IN THE ACTION BETWEEN EACH SYSTEM SO THERE WILL BE SOME DRY
PERIODS AS WELL. 12Z OP MODEL SUITE CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A RATHER
STRONG SYSTEM DURING THE TUE NIGHT/WED TIMEFRAME WHICH CONTINUES TO
HAVE VERY GOOD MODEL SUPPORT AND AGREEMENT.

PLAN ON USING BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH WED NIGHT
THEN WILL TRANSITION OVER TO ENSEMBLES /GEFS AND ECENS/ FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE LARGE TIMING AND TRACK
DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS.

DETAILS...

MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING PUSHES QUICKLY ACROSS THE
REGION...SO EXPECT DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
CLOUDS MAY START TO INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS WESTERN AREAS.
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...RANGING TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

TUESDAY...NEXT SURFACE LOW AND FRONT SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE W IN
THE NEARLY PARALLEL UPPER LEVEL SW WIND FLOW. WILL SEE INCREASING
CLOUDS DURING THE DAY BUT...DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT...LOOKS LIKE BULK
OF THE PRECIP REMAINS W OF THE REGION. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS WORK
INTO THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES. GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION WORKING
IN THE SW FLOW SO EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY AROUND 80...JUST ABOUT AT THE
SEASONAL NORM FOR LATE JUNE.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...AS THE H5 SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT
SLOWLY APPROACH TUE NIGHT...WILL START TO SEE SCT SHOWERS MOVE IN
EARLY. BETTER DYNAMICS AND SCT ELEVATED CONVECTION LOOK TO APPROACH
AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AREAS THEN SHIFTS E TOWARD
DAYBREAK WED.

BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO OCCUR DURING WED...AND HAVE MENTIONED
SPOTTY CATEGORICAL POPS INLAND. WITH THE SW UPPER FLOW IN PLACE...
THIS SYSTEM REMAINS A SLOW MOVER. DEWPTS FORECAST TO RISE TO THE MID
AND UPPER 60S ALONG WITH PWATS INCREASING WITH THE SW FLOW...ON
ORDER OF 1.7 TO 1.9 INCHES. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL
ESPECIALLY IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.  IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY WITH THIS
SYSTEM...K INDICES TO THE UPPER 30S AND CAPES INCREASING TO 1000-
1500 J/KG WED AFTERNOON ALONG WITH GOOD SW SHEAR /H925 WINDS AROUND
30 KT AND H85 WINDS 30-35 KT/ ALONG WITH A STRONG UPPER JET PASSING
ACROSS. H5 COLD POOL ALSO SNEAKS IN...WITH TEMPS DOWN TO -10C TO
-12C WED AFTERNOON. SO...WILL BE MONITORING THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH TOWARD THE S
COAST WED NIGHT THEN LOOKS TO STALL A BIT FURTHER DOWN THE COAST.
WILL STILL SEE LEFTOVER SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS BUT SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE
BY MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO DEVELOP MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THEN...ON THURSDAY...SKIES WILL START OFF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY.
HOWEVER...WITH THE H5 COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SEE SOME SCT DIURNAL
SHOWERS DEVELOP MAINLY INLAND. ONLY CARRIED 20-30 PCT CHANCE MAINLY
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS SHOULD END WITH
SUNSET.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY DUE TO WIDE MODEL
SOLUTIONS. AT THIS POINT...SHOULD BE A DRY DAY FOR MOST OF FRIDAY
BEFORE MORE SCT SHOWERS MOVE IN. LOTS OF QUESTIONS ABOUT WHETHER A
WAVE OF LOW PRES FORMS ON STALLED FRONT TO THE S THAT MAY BRING MORE
MOISTURE FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. CARRIED ONLY CHANCE
POPS FOR THIS. TIMING IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION FOR YET ANOTHER FAST
MOVING SYSTEM LATE THIS WEEKEND. TEMPS OVER THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND
LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO OR ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

OVERNIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY IFR TO EVEN
LOCALIZED LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT IN LOW
CLOUDS...AREAS OF FOG/DRIZZLE ALONG WITH PASSING SHOWER OR TWO.
MOISTURE WILL REMAINED TRAPPED JUST BELOW THE INVERSION.

MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES IN THE MORNING SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR BUT IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFTERNOON FOR THIS TO HAPPEN IN
SOME LOCATIONS.  THIS AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF...BUT UNCERTAIN
AS TO EXACTLY WHEN CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN VFR ON MONDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF...BUT UNCERTAIN
AS TO EXACTLY WHEN CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN VFR ON MONDAY

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY...VFR MOST AREAS. PATCHY FOG EARLY TUE WITH LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY AROUND 14Z. LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS N CT INTO WESTERN-CENTRAL MA IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGHEST RISK FOR SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE WED WITH GUSTY WINDS. MVFR
LIKELY. LOCAL IFR IN ANY PATCHY FOG LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...LEFTOVER MVFR CONDITIONS IN ANY
SHOWERS/TSTMS EARLY WED NIGHT...THEN TRENDING TOWARD VFR WITH
SHOWERS ENDING. LOW CHANCE FOR SPOTTY SHOWERS LATE THU MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INLAND...BRIEF LOCAL MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...

OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES FOR SEAS WILL CONTINUE FROM LEFTOVER SWELL
THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUNDS AND ALL OUTER WATERS.
AREAS OF FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES FOR MARINERS INTO
MONDAY MORNING.

MAY ALSO SEE A PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS
ACROSS BUZZARDS BAY/NANTUCKET SOUND AND CAPE COD BAY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IF CONFIDENCE ON THE NEXT SHIFT GROWS...THEY MAY NEEDED
TO BE ADDED TO THE SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES FOR A TIME.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...LEFTOVER SW GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS WILL END EARLY. SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 5-7 FT EARLY ON THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY.

TUESDAY...EXPECT LIGHT S WINDS AND SEAS 4 FT OR LESS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...EXPECT S-SW WINDS TO INCREASE AHEAD
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GUSTS TO 20 KT MAINLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS. SEAS BUILDING UP TO 5-6 FT MAINLY ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG WITH PATCHY
FOG.

THURSDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO W AND DIMINISH. SEAS REMAIN AROUND 5 FT
ON THE OUTER WATERS.

FRIDAY...LIGHT WINDS BECOME E-SE. MAY SEE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS.
PATCHY FOG REDUCING VSBYS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 290214
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1014 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
JUST A FEW SPOT SHOWERS WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL. WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOME
STORMS ON WEDNESDAY MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE ALONG WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. SPOTTY SHOWERS LINGER INTO THURSDAY. DRY AND MILD
WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT
APPROACHES BRINGING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE FRI INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

1030 PM UPDATE...

ISSUES WITH FAA COMMS HAS CAUSED A OBSERVATION DATA OUTAGE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING THANKS TO TRAPPED MOISTURE FROM SHALLOW INVERSION.
HOWEVER GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THE DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY DROP FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. HOWEVER WITH WEAK FLOW THINK FOG WILL CONTINUE FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE IF DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED.

SECONDARY SURFACE LOW HAS MOVED INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY. SCT
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED THANKS TO WEAK LIFT FROM THE LOW AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE. THESE SCT SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION ACROSS CT AND INTO WESTERN MASS AND SHOULD PASS THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE TEMPS WONT MOVE MUCH THANKS TO OVERCAST SKY COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL BE THE MAIN
STORY WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION. DO NOT
EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO BE WIDESPREAD OR DENSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
ADVISORY...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S WITH SOME LOWER 60S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MONDAY...

BIGGEST QUESTION MARK FOR MONDAY IS HOW QUICKLY LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN
OFF.  WE MAY STILL BE DEALING WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS IN THE
MORNING...BUT SHOULD SEE SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE EMERGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS OUR
NORTHWEST ZONES WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE...BUT PRETTY MUCH A DRY DAY ON
TAP. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 70S...SO IN A NUTSHELL MUCH BETTER
THEN TODAY.

BEACH FORECAST...

A MODERATE TO EVEN HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED
ON SOME OF OUR OCEAN EXPOSED BEACHES ON MONDAY.  HIGH SURF
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING...BUT THE NEXT
SHIFT MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT FOR MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
  WEDNESDAY...THEN SPOTTY SHOWERS LINGER INTO THURSDAY
* SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
* DRY AND MILD THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
* ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH MORE
  SCT SHOWERS

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

12Z OP MODEL SOLUTIONS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INTO WED NIGHT...THEN
SOLUTIONS WIDEN IN THE RESPONSE TO THE POSSIBLE BREAKING DOWN OF THE
LONG WAVE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/TROUGH ACROSS NORTH AMERICA
LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IT APPEARS THAT THE
TROUGHING BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED OVER TIME ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...
WHICH PRESENTS PROBLEMS IN TRYING TO TIME SENSIBLE WEATHER SURFACE
SYSTEMS IN THIS FAST FLOW ALOFT. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FROM THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ANY APPROACHING SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY AS THE
NORTHERN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE. DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME
BREAKS IN THE ACTION BETWEEN EACH SYSTEM SO THERE WILL BE SOME DRY
PERIODS AS WELL. 12Z OP MODEL SUITE CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A RATHER
STRONG SYSTEM DURING THE TUE NIGHT/WED TIMEFRAME WHICH CONTINUES TO
HAVE VERY GOOD MODEL SUPPORT AND AGREEMENT.

PLAN ON USING BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH WED NIGHT
THEN WILL TRANSITION OVER TO ENSEMBLES /GEFS AND ECENS/ FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE LARGE TIMING AND TRACK
DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS.

DETAILS...

MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING PUSHES QUICKLY ACROSS THE
REGION...SO EXPECT DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
CLOUDS MAY START TO INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS WESTERN AREAS.
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...RANGING TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

TUESDAY...NEXT SURFACE LOW AND FRONT SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE W IN
THE NEARLY PARALLEL UPPER LEVEL SW WIND FLOW. WILL SEE INCREASING
CLOUDS DURING THE DAY BUT...DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT...LOOKS LIKE BULK
OF THE PRECIP REMAINS W OF THE REGION. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS WORK
INTO THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES. GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION WORKING
IN THE SW FLOW SO EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY AROUND 80...JUST ABOUT AT THE
SEASONAL NORM FOR LATE JUNE.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...AS THE H5 SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT
SLOWLY APPROACH TUE NIGHT...WILL START TO SEE SCT SHOWERS MOVE IN
EARLY. BETTER DYNAMICS AND SCT ELEVATED CONVECTION LOOK TO APPROACH
AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AREAS THEN SHIFTS E TOWARD
DAYBREAK WED.

BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO OCCUR DURING WED...AND HAVE MENTIONED
SPOTTY CATEGORICAL POPS INLAND. WITH THE SW UPPER FLOW IN PLACE...
THIS SYSTEM REMAINS A SLOW MOVER. DEWPTS FORECAST TO RISE TO THE MID
AND UPPER 60S ALONG WITH PWATS INCREASING WITH THE SW FLOW...ON
ORDER OF 1.7 TO 1.9 INCHES. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL
ESPECIALLY IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.  IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY WITH THIS
SYSTEM...K INDICES TO THE UPPER 30S AND CAPES INCREASING TO 1000-
1500 J/KG WED AFTERNOON ALONG WITH GOOD SW SHEAR /H925 WINDS AROUND
30 KT AND H85 WINDS 30-35 KT/ ALONG WITH A STRONG UPPER JET PASSING
ACROSS. H5 COLD POOL ALSO SNEAKS IN...WITH TEMPS DOWN TO -10C TO
-12C WED AFTERNOON. SO...WILL BE MONITORING THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH TOWARD THE S
COAST WED NIGHT THEN LOOKS TO STALL A BIT FURTHER DOWN THE COAST.
WILL STILL SEE LEFTOVER SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS BUT SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE
BY MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO DEVELOP MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THEN...ON THURSDAY...SKIES WILL START OFF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY.
HOWEVER...WITH THE H5 COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SEE SOME SCT DIURNAL
SHOWERS DEVELOP MAINLY INLAND. ONLY CARRIED 20-30 PCT CHANCE MAINLY
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS SHOULD END WITH
SUNSET.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY DUE TO WIDE MODEL
SOLUTIONS. AT THIS POINT...SHOULD BE A DRY DAY FOR MOST OF FRIDAY
BEFORE MORE SCT SHOWERS MOVE IN. LOTS OF QUESTIONS ABOUT WHETHER A
WAVE OF LOW PRES FORMS ON STALLED FRONT TO THE S THAT MAY BRING MORE
MOISTURE FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. CARRIED ONLY CHANCE
POPS FOR THIS. TIMING IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION FOR YET ANOTHER FAST
MOVING SYSTEM LATE THIS WEEKEND. TEMPS OVER THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND
LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO OR ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

OVERNIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY IFR TO EVEN
LOCALIZED LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT IN LOW
CLOUDS...AREAS OF FOG/DRIZZLE ALONG WITH PASSING SHOWER OR TWO.
MOISTURE WILL REMAINED TRAPPED JUST BELOW THE INVERSION.

MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES IN THE MORNING SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR BUT IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFTERNOON FOR THIS TO HAPPEN IN
SOME LOCATIONS.  THIS AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF...BUT UNCERTAIN
AS TO EXACTLY WHEN CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN VFR ON MONDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF...BUT UNCERTAIN
AS TO EXACTLY WHEN CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN VFR ON MONDAY

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY...VFR MOST AREAS. PATCHY FOG EARLY TUE WITH LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY AROUND 14Z. LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS N CT INTO WESTERN-CENTRAL MA IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGHEST RISK FOR SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE WED WITH GUSTY WINDS. MVFR
LIKELY. LOCAL IFR IN ANY PATCHY FOG LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...LEFTOVER MVFR CONDITIONS IN ANY
SHOWERS/TSTMS EARLY WED NIGHT...THEN TRENDING TOWARD VFR WITH
SHOWERS ENDING. LOW CHANCE FOR SPOTTY SHOWERS LATE THU MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INLAND...BRIEF LOCAL MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...

OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES FOR SEAS WILL CONTINUE FROM LEFTOVER SWELL
THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUNDS AND ALL OUTER WATERS.
AREAS OF FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES FOR MARINERS INTO
MONDAY MORNING.

MAY ALSO SEE A PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS
ACROSS BUZZARDS BAY/NANTUCKET SOUND AND CAPE COD BAY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IF CONFIDENCE ON THE NEXT SHIFT GROWS...THEY MAY NEEDED
TO BE ADDED TO THE SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES FOR A TIME.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...LEFTOVER SW GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS WILL END EARLY. SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 5-7 FT EARLY ON THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY.

TUESDAY...EXPECT LIGHT S WINDS AND SEAS 4 FT OR LESS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...EXPECT S-SW WINDS TO INCREASE AHEAD
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GUSTS TO 20 KT MAINLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS. SEAS BUILDING UP TO 5-6 FT MAINLY ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG WITH PATCHY
FOG.

THURSDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO W AND DIMINISH. SEAS REMAIN AROUND 5 FT
ON THE OUTER WATERS.

FRIDAY...LIGHT WINDS BECOME E-SE. MAY SEE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS.
PATCHY FOG REDUCING VSBYS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 290214
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1014 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
JUST A FEW SPOT SHOWERS WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL. WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOME
STORMS ON WEDNESDAY MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE ALONG WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. SPOTTY SHOWERS LINGER INTO THURSDAY. DRY AND MILD
WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT
APPROACHES BRINGING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE FRI INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

1030 PM UPDATE...

ISSUES WITH FAA COMMS HAS CAUSED A OBSERVATION DATA OUTAGE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING THANKS TO TRAPPED MOISTURE FROM SHALLOW INVERSION.
HOWEVER GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THE DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY DROP FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. HOWEVER WITH WEAK FLOW THINK FOG WILL CONTINUE FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE IF DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED.

SECONDARY SURFACE LOW HAS MOVED INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY. SCT
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED THANKS TO WEAK LIFT FROM THE LOW AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE. THESE SCT SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION ACROSS CT AND INTO WESTERN MASS AND SHOULD PASS THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE TEMPS WONT MOVE MUCH THANKS TO OVERCAST SKY COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL BE THE MAIN
STORY WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION. DO NOT
EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO BE WIDESPREAD OR DENSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
ADVISORY...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S WITH SOME LOWER 60S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MONDAY...

BIGGEST QUESTION MARK FOR MONDAY IS HOW QUICKLY LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN
OFF.  WE MAY STILL BE DEALING WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS IN THE
MORNING...BUT SHOULD SEE SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE EMERGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS OUR
NORTHWEST ZONES WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE...BUT PRETTY MUCH A DRY DAY ON
TAP. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 70S...SO IN A NUTSHELL MUCH BETTER
THEN TODAY.

BEACH FORECAST...

A MODERATE TO EVEN HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED
ON SOME OF OUR OCEAN EXPOSED BEACHES ON MONDAY.  HIGH SURF
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING...BUT THE NEXT
SHIFT MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT FOR MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
  WEDNESDAY...THEN SPOTTY SHOWERS LINGER INTO THURSDAY
* SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
* DRY AND MILD THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
* ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH MORE
  SCT SHOWERS

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

12Z OP MODEL SOLUTIONS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INTO WED NIGHT...THEN
SOLUTIONS WIDEN IN THE RESPONSE TO THE POSSIBLE BREAKING DOWN OF THE
LONG WAVE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/TROUGH ACROSS NORTH AMERICA
LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IT APPEARS THAT THE
TROUGHING BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED OVER TIME ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...
WHICH PRESENTS PROBLEMS IN TRYING TO TIME SENSIBLE WEATHER SURFACE
SYSTEMS IN THIS FAST FLOW ALOFT. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FROM THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ANY APPROACHING SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY AS THE
NORTHERN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE. DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME
BREAKS IN THE ACTION BETWEEN EACH SYSTEM SO THERE WILL BE SOME DRY
PERIODS AS WELL. 12Z OP MODEL SUITE CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A RATHER
STRONG SYSTEM DURING THE TUE NIGHT/WED TIMEFRAME WHICH CONTINUES TO
HAVE VERY GOOD MODEL SUPPORT AND AGREEMENT.

PLAN ON USING BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH WED NIGHT
THEN WILL TRANSITION OVER TO ENSEMBLES /GEFS AND ECENS/ FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE LARGE TIMING AND TRACK
DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS.

DETAILS...

MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING PUSHES QUICKLY ACROSS THE
REGION...SO EXPECT DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
CLOUDS MAY START TO INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS WESTERN AREAS.
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...RANGING TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

TUESDAY...NEXT SURFACE LOW AND FRONT SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE W IN
THE NEARLY PARALLEL UPPER LEVEL SW WIND FLOW. WILL SEE INCREASING
CLOUDS DURING THE DAY BUT...DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT...LOOKS LIKE BULK
OF THE PRECIP REMAINS W OF THE REGION. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS WORK
INTO THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES. GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION WORKING
IN THE SW FLOW SO EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY AROUND 80...JUST ABOUT AT THE
SEASONAL NORM FOR LATE JUNE.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...AS THE H5 SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT
SLOWLY APPROACH TUE NIGHT...WILL START TO SEE SCT SHOWERS MOVE IN
EARLY. BETTER DYNAMICS AND SCT ELEVATED CONVECTION LOOK TO APPROACH
AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AREAS THEN SHIFTS E TOWARD
DAYBREAK WED.

BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO OCCUR DURING WED...AND HAVE MENTIONED
SPOTTY CATEGORICAL POPS INLAND. WITH THE SW UPPER FLOW IN PLACE...
THIS SYSTEM REMAINS A SLOW MOVER. DEWPTS FORECAST TO RISE TO THE MID
AND UPPER 60S ALONG WITH PWATS INCREASING WITH THE SW FLOW...ON
ORDER OF 1.7 TO 1.9 INCHES. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL
ESPECIALLY IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.  IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY WITH THIS
SYSTEM...K INDICES TO THE UPPER 30S AND CAPES INCREASING TO 1000-
1500 J/KG WED AFTERNOON ALONG WITH GOOD SW SHEAR /H925 WINDS AROUND
30 KT AND H85 WINDS 30-35 KT/ ALONG WITH A STRONG UPPER JET PASSING
ACROSS. H5 COLD POOL ALSO SNEAKS IN...WITH TEMPS DOWN TO -10C TO
-12C WED AFTERNOON. SO...WILL BE MONITORING THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH TOWARD THE S
COAST WED NIGHT THEN LOOKS TO STALL A BIT FURTHER DOWN THE COAST.
WILL STILL SEE LEFTOVER SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS BUT SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE
BY MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO DEVELOP MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THEN...ON THURSDAY...SKIES WILL START OFF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY.
HOWEVER...WITH THE H5 COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SEE SOME SCT DIURNAL
SHOWERS DEVELOP MAINLY INLAND. ONLY CARRIED 20-30 PCT CHANCE MAINLY
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS SHOULD END WITH
SUNSET.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY DUE TO WIDE MODEL
SOLUTIONS. AT THIS POINT...SHOULD BE A DRY DAY FOR MOST OF FRIDAY
BEFORE MORE SCT SHOWERS MOVE IN. LOTS OF QUESTIONS ABOUT WHETHER A
WAVE OF LOW PRES FORMS ON STALLED FRONT TO THE S THAT MAY BRING MORE
MOISTURE FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. CARRIED ONLY CHANCE
POPS FOR THIS. TIMING IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION FOR YET ANOTHER FAST
MOVING SYSTEM LATE THIS WEEKEND. TEMPS OVER THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND
LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO OR ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

OVERNIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY IFR TO EVEN
LOCALIZED LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT IN LOW
CLOUDS...AREAS OF FOG/DRIZZLE ALONG WITH PASSING SHOWER OR TWO.
MOISTURE WILL REMAINED TRAPPED JUST BELOW THE INVERSION.

MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES IN THE MORNING SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR BUT IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFTERNOON FOR THIS TO HAPPEN IN
SOME LOCATIONS.  THIS AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF...BUT UNCERTAIN
AS TO EXACTLY WHEN CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN VFR ON MONDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF...BUT UNCERTAIN
AS TO EXACTLY WHEN CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN VFR ON MONDAY

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY...VFR MOST AREAS. PATCHY FOG EARLY TUE WITH LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY AROUND 14Z. LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS N CT INTO WESTERN-CENTRAL MA IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGHEST RISK FOR SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE WED WITH GUSTY WINDS. MVFR
LIKELY. LOCAL IFR IN ANY PATCHY FOG LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...LEFTOVER MVFR CONDITIONS IN ANY
SHOWERS/TSTMS EARLY WED NIGHT...THEN TRENDING TOWARD VFR WITH
SHOWERS ENDING. LOW CHANCE FOR SPOTTY SHOWERS LATE THU MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INLAND...BRIEF LOCAL MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...

OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES FOR SEAS WILL CONTINUE FROM LEFTOVER SWELL
THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUNDS AND ALL OUTER WATERS.
AREAS OF FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES FOR MARINERS INTO
MONDAY MORNING.

MAY ALSO SEE A PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS
ACROSS BUZZARDS BAY/NANTUCKET SOUND AND CAPE COD BAY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IF CONFIDENCE ON THE NEXT SHIFT GROWS...THEY MAY NEEDED
TO BE ADDED TO THE SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES FOR A TIME.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...LEFTOVER SW GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS WILL END EARLY. SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 5-7 FT EARLY ON THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY.

TUESDAY...EXPECT LIGHT S WINDS AND SEAS 4 FT OR LESS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...EXPECT S-SW WINDS TO INCREASE AHEAD
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GUSTS TO 20 KT MAINLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS. SEAS BUILDING UP TO 5-6 FT MAINLY ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG WITH PATCHY
FOG.

THURSDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO W AND DIMINISH. SEAS REMAIN AROUND 5 FT
ON THE OUTER WATERS.

FRIDAY...LIGHT WINDS BECOME E-SE. MAY SEE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS.
PATCHY FOG REDUCING VSBYS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 290214
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1014 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
JUST A FEW SPOT SHOWERS WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL. WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOME
STORMS ON WEDNESDAY MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE ALONG WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. SPOTTY SHOWERS LINGER INTO THURSDAY. DRY AND MILD
WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT
APPROACHES BRINGING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE FRI INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

1030 PM UPDATE...

ISSUES WITH FAA COMMS HAS CAUSED A OBSERVATION DATA OUTAGE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING THANKS TO TRAPPED MOISTURE FROM SHALLOW INVERSION.
HOWEVER GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THE DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY DROP FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. HOWEVER WITH WEAK FLOW THINK FOG WILL CONTINUE FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE IF DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED.

SECONDARY SURFACE LOW HAS MOVED INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY. SCT
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED THANKS TO WEAK LIFT FROM THE LOW AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE. THESE SCT SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION ACROSS CT AND INTO WESTERN MASS AND SHOULD PASS THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE TEMPS WONT MOVE MUCH THANKS TO OVERCAST SKY COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL BE THE MAIN
STORY WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION. DO NOT
EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO BE WIDESPREAD OR DENSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
ADVISORY...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S WITH SOME LOWER 60S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MONDAY...

BIGGEST QUESTION MARK FOR MONDAY IS HOW QUICKLY LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN
OFF.  WE MAY STILL BE DEALING WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS IN THE
MORNING...BUT SHOULD SEE SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE EMERGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS OUR
NORTHWEST ZONES WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE...BUT PRETTY MUCH A DRY DAY ON
TAP. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 70S...SO IN A NUTSHELL MUCH BETTER
THEN TODAY.

BEACH FORECAST...

A MODERATE TO EVEN HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED
ON SOME OF OUR OCEAN EXPOSED BEACHES ON MONDAY.  HIGH SURF
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING...BUT THE NEXT
SHIFT MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT FOR MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
  WEDNESDAY...THEN SPOTTY SHOWERS LINGER INTO THURSDAY
* SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
* DRY AND MILD THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
* ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH MORE
  SCT SHOWERS

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

12Z OP MODEL SOLUTIONS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INTO WED NIGHT...THEN
SOLUTIONS WIDEN IN THE RESPONSE TO THE POSSIBLE BREAKING DOWN OF THE
LONG WAVE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/TROUGH ACROSS NORTH AMERICA
LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IT APPEARS THAT THE
TROUGHING BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED OVER TIME ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...
WHICH PRESENTS PROBLEMS IN TRYING TO TIME SENSIBLE WEATHER SURFACE
SYSTEMS IN THIS FAST FLOW ALOFT. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FROM THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ANY APPROACHING SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY AS THE
NORTHERN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE. DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME
BREAKS IN THE ACTION BETWEEN EACH SYSTEM SO THERE WILL BE SOME DRY
PERIODS AS WELL. 12Z OP MODEL SUITE CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A RATHER
STRONG SYSTEM DURING THE TUE NIGHT/WED TIMEFRAME WHICH CONTINUES TO
HAVE VERY GOOD MODEL SUPPORT AND AGREEMENT.

PLAN ON USING BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH WED NIGHT
THEN WILL TRANSITION OVER TO ENSEMBLES /GEFS AND ECENS/ FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE LARGE TIMING AND TRACK
DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS.

DETAILS...

MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING PUSHES QUICKLY ACROSS THE
REGION...SO EXPECT DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
CLOUDS MAY START TO INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS WESTERN AREAS.
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...RANGING TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

TUESDAY...NEXT SURFACE LOW AND FRONT SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE W IN
THE NEARLY PARALLEL UPPER LEVEL SW WIND FLOW. WILL SEE INCREASING
CLOUDS DURING THE DAY BUT...DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT...LOOKS LIKE BULK
OF THE PRECIP REMAINS W OF THE REGION. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS WORK
INTO THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES. GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION WORKING
IN THE SW FLOW SO EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY AROUND 80...JUST ABOUT AT THE
SEASONAL NORM FOR LATE JUNE.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...AS THE H5 SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT
SLOWLY APPROACH TUE NIGHT...WILL START TO SEE SCT SHOWERS MOVE IN
EARLY. BETTER DYNAMICS AND SCT ELEVATED CONVECTION LOOK TO APPROACH
AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AREAS THEN SHIFTS E TOWARD
DAYBREAK WED.

BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO OCCUR DURING WED...AND HAVE MENTIONED
SPOTTY CATEGORICAL POPS INLAND. WITH THE SW UPPER FLOW IN PLACE...
THIS SYSTEM REMAINS A SLOW MOVER. DEWPTS FORECAST TO RISE TO THE MID
AND UPPER 60S ALONG WITH PWATS INCREASING WITH THE SW FLOW...ON
ORDER OF 1.7 TO 1.9 INCHES. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL
ESPECIALLY IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.  IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY WITH THIS
SYSTEM...K INDICES TO THE UPPER 30S AND CAPES INCREASING TO 1000-
1500 J/KG WED AFTERNOON ALONG WITH GOOD SW SHEAR /H925 WINDS AROUND
30 KT AND H85 WINDS 30-35 KT/ ALONG WITH A STRONG UPPER JET PASSING
ACROSS. H5 COLD POOL ALSO SNEAKS IN...WITH TEMPS DOWN TO -10C TO
-12C WED AFTERNOON. SO...WILL BE MONITORING THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH TOWARD THE S
COAST WED NIGHT THEN LOOKS TO STALL A BIT FURTHER DOWN THE COAST.
WILL STILL SEE LEFTOVER SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS BUT SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE
BY MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO DEVELOP MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THEN...ON THURSDAY...SKIES WILL START OFF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY.
HOWEVER...WITH THE H5 COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SEE SOME SCT DIURNAL
SHOWERS DEVELOP MAINLY INLAND. ONLY CARRIED 20-30 PCT CHANCE MAINLY
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS SHOULD END WITH
SUNSET.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY DUE TO WIDE MODEL
SOLUTIONS. AT THIS POINT...SHOULD BE A DRY DAY FOR MOST OF FRIDAY
BEFORE MORE SCT SHOWERS MOVE IN. LOTS OF QUESTIONS ABOUT WHETHER A
WAVE OF LOW PRES FORMS ON STALLED FRONT TO THE S THAT MAY BRING MORE
MOISTURE FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. CARRIED ONLY CHANCE
POPS FOR THIS. TIMING IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION FOR YET ANOTHER FAST
MOVING SYSTEM LATE THIS WEEKEND. TEMPS OVER THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND
LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO OR ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

OVERNIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY IFR TO EVEN
LOCALIZED LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT IN LOW
CLOUDS...AREAS OF FOG/DRIZZLE ALONG WITH PASSING SHOWER OR TWO.
MOISTURE WILL REMAINED TRAPPED JUST BELOW THE INVERSION.

MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES IN THE MORNING SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR BUT IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFTERNOON FOR THIS TO HAPPEN IN
SOME LOCATIONS.  THIS AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF...BUT UNCERTAIN
AS TO EXACTLY WHEN CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN VFR ON MONDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF...BUT UNCERTAIN
AS TO EXACTLY WHEN CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN VFR ON MONDAY

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY...VFR MOST AREAS. PATCHY FOG EARLY TUE WITH LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY AROUND 14Z. LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS N CT INTO WESTERN-CENTRAL MA IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGHEST RISK FOR SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE WED WITH GUSTY WINDS. MVFR
LIKELY. LOCAL IFR IN ANY PATCHY FOG LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...LEFTOVER MVFR CONDITIONS IN ANY
SHOWERS/TSTMS EARLY WED NIGHT...THEN TRENDING TOWARD VFR WITH
SHOWERS ENDING. LOW CHANCE FOR SPOTTY SHOWERS LATE THU MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INLAND...BRIEF LOCAL MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...

OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES FOR SEAS WILL CONTINUE FROM LEFTOVER SWELL
THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUNDS AND ALL OUTER WATERS.
AREAS OF FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES FOR MARINERS INTO
MONDAY MORNING.

MAY ALSO SEE A PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS
ACROSS BUZZARDS BAY/NANTUCKET SOUND AND CAPE COD BAY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IF CONFIDENCE ON THE NEXT SHIFT GROWS...THEY MAY NEEDED
TO BE ADDED TO THE SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES FOR A TIME.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...LEFTOVER SW GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS WILL END EARLY. SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 5-7 FT EARLY ON THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY.

TUESDAY...EXPECT LIGHT S WINDS AND SEAS 4 FT OR LESS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...EXPECT S-SW WINDS TO INCREASE AHEAD
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GUSTS TO 20 KT MAINLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS. SEAS BUILDING UP TO 5-6 FT MAINLY ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG WITH PATCHY
FOG.

THURSDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO W AND DIMINISH. SEAS REMAIN AROUND 5 FT
ON THE OUTER WATERS.

FRIDAY...LIGHT WINDS BECOME E-SE. MAY SEE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS.
PATCHY FOG REDUCING VSBYS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290040
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
840 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
JUST A FEW SPOT SHOWERS WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL. WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOME
STORMS ON WEDNESDAY MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE ALONG WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. SPOTTY SHOWERS LINGER INTO THURSDAY. DRY AND MILD
WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT
APPROACHES BRINGING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE FRI INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

815 PM UPDATE...

LOW PRES PASSING E OF CAPE COD AT 00Z AS WINDS ARE BACKING TO N
ACROSS MA AND INTO THE CT VALLEY. NOTED NW WIND GUSTING UP TO 24
KT AT KPSM AT 23Z AND 25 KT AT KLWM AT 22Z DUE TO PRES GRADIENT
INCREASE AS THE LOW PASSED ACROSS SE MA. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN BACK TO
THE 50S ACROSS MA/N CENTRAL CT...WHILE UP TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE ISLANDS. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN AREAS...ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. NOTED VSBYS BELOW 1/2SM
AT KACK...THOUGH SHOULD IMPROVE AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN.

CURRENT FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. UPDATED TO BRING NEAR TERM
CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL BE THE MAIN
STORY WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION. DO NOT
EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO BE WIDESPREAD OR DENSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
ADVISORY...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S WITH SOME LOWER 60S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MONDAY...

BIGGEST QUESTION MARK FOR MONDAY IS HOW QUICKLY LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN
OFF.  WE MAY STILL BE DEALING WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS IN THE
MORNING...BUT SHOULD SEE SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE EMERGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS OUR
NORTHWEST ZONES WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE...BUT PRETTY MUCH A DRY DAY ON
TAP. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 70S...SO IN A NUTSHELL MUCH BETTER
THEN TODAY.

BEACH FORECAST...

A MODERATE TO EVEN HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED
ON SOME OF OUR OCEAN EXPOSED BEACHES ON MONDAY.  HIGH SURF
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING...BUT THE NEXT
SHIFT MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT FOR MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
  WEDNESDAY...THEN SPOTTY SHOWERS LINGER INTO THURSDAY
* SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
* DRY AND MILD THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
* ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH MORE
  SCT SHOWERS

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

12Z OP MODEL SOLUTIONS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INTO WED NIGHT...THEN
SOLUTIONS WIDEN IN THE RESPONSE TO THE POSSIBLE BREAKING DOWN OF THE
LONG WAVE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/TROUGH ACROSS NORTH AMERICA
LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IT APPEARS THAT THE
TROUGHING BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED OVER TIME ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...
WHICH PRESENTS PROBLEMS IN TRYING TO TIME SENSIBLE WEATHER SURFACE
SYSTEMS IN THIS FAST FLOW ALOFT. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FROM THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ANY APPROACHING SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY AS THE
NORTHERN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE. DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME
BREAKS IN THE ACTION BETWEEN EACH SYSTEM SO THERE WILL BE SOME DRY
PERIODS AS WELL. 12Z OP MODEL SUITE CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A RATHER
STRONG SYSTEM DURING THE TUE NIGHT/WED TIMEFRAME WHICH CONTINUES TO
HAVE VERY GOOD MODEL SUPPORT AND AGREEMENT.

PLAN ON USING BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH WED NIGHT
THEN WILL TRANSITION OVER TO ENSEMBLES /GEFS AND ECENS/ FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE LARGE TIMING AND TRACK
DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS.

DETAILS...

MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING PUSHES QUICKLY ACROSS THE
REGION...SO EXPECT DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
CLOUDS MAY START TO INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS WESTERN AREAS.
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...RANGING TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

TUESDAY...NEXT SURFACE LOW AND FRONT SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE W IN
THE NEARLY PARALLEL UPPER LEVEL SW WIND FLOW. WILL SEE INCREASING
CLOUDS DURING THE DAY BUT...DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT...LOOKS LIKE BULK
OF THE PRECIP REMAINS W OF THE REGION. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS WORK
INTO THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES. GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION WORKING
IN THE SW FLOW SO EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY AROUND 80...JUST ABOUT AT THE
SEASONAL NORM FOR LATE JUNE.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...AS THE H5 SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT
SLOWLY APPROACH TUE NIGHT...WILL START TO SEE SCT SHOWERS MOVE IN
EARLY. BETTER DYNAMICS AND SCT ELEVATED CONVECTION LOOK TO APPROACH
AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AREAS THEN SHIFTS E TOWARD
DAYBREAK WED.

BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO OCCUR DURING WED...AND HAVE MENTIONED
SPOTTY CATEGORICAL POPS INLAND. WITH THE SW UPPER FLOW IN PLACE...
THIS SYSTEM REMAINS A SLOW MOVER. DEWPTS FORECAST TO RISE TO THE MID
AND UPPER 60S ALONG WITH PWATS INCREASING WITH THE SW FLOW...ON
ORDER OF 1.7 TO 1.9 INCHES. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL
ESPECIALLY IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.  IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY WITH THIS
SYSTEM...K INDICES TO THE UPPER 30S AND CAPES INCREASING TO 1000-
1500 J/KG WED AFTERNOON ALONG WITH GOOD SW SHEAR /H925 WINDS AROUND
30 KT AND H85 WINDS 30-35 KT/ ALONG WITH A STRONG UPPER JET PASSING
ACROSS. H5 COLD POOL ALSO SNEAKS IN...WITH TEMPS DOWN TO -10C TO
-12C WED AFTERNOON. SO...WILL BE MONITORING THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH TOWARD THE S
COAST WED NIGHT THEN LOOKS TO STALL A BIT FURTHER DOWN THE COAST.
WILL STILL SEE LEFTOVER SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS BUT SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE
BY MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO DEVELOP MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THEN...ON THURSDAY...SKIES WILL START OFF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY.
HOWEVER...WITH THE H5 COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SEE SOME SCT DIURNAL
SHOWERS DEVELOP MAINLY INLAND. ONLY CARRIED 20-30 PCT CHANCE MAINLY
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS SHOULD END WITH
SUNSET.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY DUE TO WIDE MODEL
SOLUTIONS. AT THIS POINT...SHOULD BE A DRY DAY FOR MOST OF FRIDAY
BEFORE MORE SCT SHOWERS MOVE IN. LOTS OF QUESTIONS ABOUT WHETHER A
WAVE OF LOW PRES FORMS ON STALLED FRONT TO THE S THAT MAY BRING MORE
MOISTURE FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. CARRIED ONLY CHANCE
POPS FOR THIS. TIMING IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION FOR YET ANOTHER FAST
MOVING SYSTEM LATE THIS WEEKEND. TEMPS OVER THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND
LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO OR ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

OVERNIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY IFR TO EVEN
LOCALIZED LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT IN LOW
CLOUDS...AREAS OF FOG/DRIZZLE ALONG WITH PASSING SHOWER OR TWO.
MOISTURE WILL REMAINED TRAPPED JUST BELOW THE INVERSION.

MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES IN THE MORNING SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR BUT IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFTERNOON FOR THIS TO HAPPEN IN
SOME LOCATIONS.  THIS AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF...BUT UNCERTAIN
AS TO EXACTLY WHEN CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN VFR ON MONDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF...BUT UNCERTAIN
AS TO EXACTLY WHEN CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN VFR ON MONDAY

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY...VFR MOST AREAS. PATCHY FOG EARLY TUE WITH LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY AROUND 14Z. LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS N CT INTO WESTERN-CENTRAL MA IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGHEST RISK FOR SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE WED WITH GUSTY WINDS. MVFR
LIKELY. LOCAL IFR IN ANY PATCHY FOG LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...LEFTOVER MVFR CONDITIONS IN ANY
SHOWERS/TSTMS EARLY WED NIGHT...THEN TRENDING TOWARD VFR WITH
SHOWERS ENDING. LOW CHANCE FOR SPOTTY SHOWERS LATE THU MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INLAND...BRIEF LOCAL MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...

OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES FOR SEAS WILL CONTINUE FROM LEFTOVER SWELL
THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUNDS AND ALL OUTER WATERS.
AREAS OF FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES FOR MARINERS INTO
MONDAY MORNING.

MAY ALSO SEE A PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS
ACROSS BUZZARDS BAY/NANTUCKET SOUND AND CAPE COD BAY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IF CONFIDENCE ON THE NEXT SHIFT GROWS...THEY MAY NEEDED
TO BE ADDED TO THE SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES FOR A TIME.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...LEFTOVER SW GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS WILL END EARLY. SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 5-7 FT EARLY ON THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY.

TUESDAY...EXPECT LIGHT S WINDS AND SEAS 4 FT OR LESS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...EXPECT S-SW WINDS TO INCREASE AHEAD
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GUSTS TO 20 KT MAINLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS. SEAS BUILDING UP TO 5-6 FT MAINLY ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG WITH PATCHY
FOG.

THURSDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO W AND DIMINISH. SEAS REMAIN AROUND 5 FT
ON THE OUTER WATERS.

FRIDAY...LIGHT WINDS BECOME E-SE. MAY SEE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS.
PATCHY FOG REDUCING VSBYS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK/EVT
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290040
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
840 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
JUST A FEW SPOT SHOWERS WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL. WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOME
STORMS ON WEDNESDAY MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE ALONG WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. SPOTTY SHOWERS LINGER INTO THURSDAY. DRY AND MILD
WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT
APPROACHES BRINGING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE FRI INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

815 PM UPDATE...

LOW PRES PASSING E OF CAPE COD AT 00Z AS WINDS ARE BACKING TO N
ACROSS MA AND INTO THE CT VALLEY. NOTED NW WIND GUSTING UP TO 24
KT AT KPSM AT 23Z AND 25 KT AT KLWM AT 22Z DUE TO PRES GRADIENT
INCREASE AS THE LOW PASSED ACROSS SE MA. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN BACK TO
THE 50S ACROSS MA/N CENTRAL CT...WHILE UP TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE ISLANDS. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN AREAS...ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. NOTED VSBYS BELOW 1/2SM
AT KACK...THOUGH SHOULD IMPROVE AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN.

CURRENT FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. UPDATED TO BRING NEAR TERM
CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL BE THE MAIN
STORY WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION. DO NOT
EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO BE WIDESPREAD OR DENSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
ADVISORY...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S WITH SOME LOWER 60S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MONDAY...

BIGGEST QUESTION MARK FOR MONDAY IS HOW QUICKLY LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN
OFF.  WE MAY STILL BE DEALING WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS IN THE
MORNING...BUT SHOULD SEE SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE EMERGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS OUR
NORTHWEST ZONES WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE...BUT PRETTY MUCH A DRY DAY ON
TAP. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 70S...SO IN A NUTSHELL MUCH BETTER
THEN TODAY.

BEACH FORECAST...

A MODERATE TO EVEN HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED
ON SOME OF OUR OCEAN EXPOSED BEACHES ON MONDAY.  HIGH SURF
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING...BUT THE NEXT
SHIFT MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT FOR MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
  WEDNESDAY...THEN SPOTTY SHOWERS LINGER INTO THURSDAY
* SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
* DRY AND MILD THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
* ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH MORE
  SCT SHOWERS

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

12Z OP MODEL SOLUTIONS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INTO WED NIGHT...THEN
SOLUTIONS WIDEN IN THE RESPONSE TO THE POSSIBLE BREAKING DOWN OF THE
LONG WAVE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/TROUGH ACROSS NORTH AMERICA
LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IT APPEARS THAT THE
TROUGHING BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED OVER TIME ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...
WHICH PRESENTS PROBLEMS IN TRYING TO TIME SENSIBLE WEATHER SURFACE
SYSTEMS IN THIS FAST FLOW ALOFT. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FROM THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ANY APPROACHING SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY AS THE
NORTHERN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE. DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME
BREAKS IN THE ACTION BETWEEN EACH SYSTEM SO THERE WILL BE SOME DRY
PERIODS AS WELL. 12Z OP MODEL SUITE CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A RATHER
STRONG SYSTEM DURING THE TUE NIGHT/WED TIMEFRAME WHICH CONTINUES TO
HAVE VERY GOOD MODEL SUPPORT AND AGREEMENT.

PLAN ON USING BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH WED NIGHT
THEN WILL TRANSITION OVER TO ENSEMBLES /GEFS AND ECENS/ FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE LARGE TIMING AND TRACK
DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS.

DETAILS...

MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING PUSHES QUICKLY ACROSS THE
REGION...SO EXPECT DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
CLOUDS MAY START TO INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS WESTERN AREAS.
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...RANGING TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

TUESDAY...NEXT SURFACE LOW AND FRONT SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE W IN
THE NEARLY PARALLEL UPPER LEVEL SW WIND FLOW. WILL SEE INCREASING
CLOUDS DURING THE DAY BUT...DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT...LOOKS LIKE BULK
OF THE PRECIP REMAINS W OF THE REGION. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS WORK
INTO THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES. GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION WORKING
IN THE SW FLOW SO EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY AROUND 80...JUST ABOUT AT THE
SEASONAL NORM FOR LATE JUNE.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...AS THE H5 SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT
SLOWLY APPROACH TUE NIGHT...WILL START TO SEE SCT SHOWERS MOVE IN
EARLY. BETTER DYNAMICS AND SCT ELEVATED CONVECTION LOOK TO APPROACH
AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AREAS THEN SHIFTS E TOWARD
DAYBREAK WED.

BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO OCCUR DURING WED...AND HAVE MENTIONED
SPOTTY CATEGORICAL POPS INLAND. WITH THE SW UPPER FLOW IN PLACE...
THIS SYSTEM REMAINS A SLOW MOVER. DEWPTS FORECAST TO RISE TO THE MID
AND UPPER 60S ALONG WITH PWATS INCREASING WITH THE SW FLOW...ON
ORDER OF 1.7 TO 1.9 INCHES. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL
ESPECIALLY IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.  IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY WITH THIS
SYSTEM...K INDICES TO THE UPPER 30S AND CAPES INCREASING TO 1000-
1500 J/KG WED AFTERNOON ALONG WITH GOOD SW SHEAR /H925 WINDS AROUND
30 KT AND H85 WINDS 30-35 KT/ ALONG WITH A STRONG UPPER JET PASSING
ACROSS. H5 COLD POOL ALSO SNEAKS IN...WITH TEMPS DOWN TO -10C TO
-12C WED AFTERNOON. SO...WILL BE MONITORING THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH TOWARD THE S
COAST WED NIGHT THEN LOOKS TO STALL A BIT FURTHER DOWN THE COAST.
WILL STILL SEE LEFTOVER SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS BUT SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE
BY MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO DEVELOP MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THEN...ON THURSDAY...SKIES WILL START OFF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY.
HOWEVER...WITH THE H5 COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SEE SOME SCT DIURNAL
SHOWERS DEVELOP MAINLY INLAND. ONLY CARRIED 20-30 PCT CHANCE MAINLY
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS SHOULD END WITH
SUNSET.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY DUE TO WIDE MODEL
SOLUTIONS. AT THIS POINT...SHOULD BE A DRY DAY FOR MOST OF FRIDAY
BEFORE MORE SCT SHOWERS MOVE IN. LOTS OF QUESTIONS ABOUT WHETHER A
WAVE OF LOW PRES FORMS ON STALLED FRONT TO THE S THAT MAY BRING MORE
MOISTURE FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. CARRIED ONLY CHANCE
POPS FOR THIS. TIMING IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION FOR YET ANOTHER FAST
MOVING SYSTEM LATE THIS WEEKEND. TEMPS OVER THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND
LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO OR ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

OVERNIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY IFR TO EVEN
LOCALIZED LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT IN LOW
CLOUDS...AREAS OF FOG/DRIZZLE ALONG WITH PASSING SHOWER OR TWO.
MOISTURE WILL REMAINED TRAPPED JUST BELOW THE INVERSION.

MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES IN THE MORNING SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR BUT IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFTERNOON FOR THIS TO HAPPEN IN
SOME LOCATIONS.  THIS AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF...BUT UNCERTAIN
AS TO EXACTLY WHEN CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN VFR ON MONDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF...BUT UNCERTAIN
AS TO EXACTLY WHEN CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN VFR ON MONDAY

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY...VFR MOST AREAS. PATCHY FOG EARLY TUE WITH LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY AROUND 14Z. LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS N CT INTO WESTERN-CENTRAL MA IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGHEST RISK FOR SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE WED WITH GUSTY WINDS. MVFR
LIKELY. LOCAL IFR IN ANY PATCHY FOG LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...LEFTOVER MVFR CONDITIONS IN ANY
SHOWERS/TSTMS EARLY WED NIGHT...THEN TRENDING TOWARD VFR WITH
SHOWERS ENDING. LOW CHANCE FOR SPOTTY SHOWERS LATE THU MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INLAND...BRIEF LOCAL MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...

OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES FOR SEAS WILL CONTINUE FROM LEFTOVER SWELL
THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUNDS AND ALL OUTER WATERS.
AREAS OF FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES FOR MARINERS INTO
MONDAY MORNING.

MAY ALSO SEE A PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS
ACROSS BUZZARDS BAY/NANTUCKET SOUND AND CAPE COD BAY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IF CONFIDENCE ON THE NEXT SHIFT GROWS...THEY MAY NEEDED
TO BE ADDED TO THE SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES FOR A TIME.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...LEFTOVER SW GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS WILL END EARLY. SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 5-7 FT EARLY ON THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY.

TUESDAY...EXPECT LIGHT S WINDS AND SEAS 4 FT OR LESS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...EXPECT S-SW WINDS TO INCREASE AHEAD
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GUSTS TO 20 KT MAINLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS. SEAS BUILDING UP TO 5-6 FT MAINLY ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG WITH PATCHY
FOG.

THURSDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO W AND DIMINISH. SEAS REMAIN AROUND 5 FT
ON THE OUTER WATERS.

FRIDAY...LIGHT WINDS BECOME E-SE. MAY SEE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS.
PATCHY FOG REDUCING VSBYS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK/EVT
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 290040
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
840 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
JUST A FEW SPOT SHOWERS WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL. WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOME
STORMS ON WEDNESDAY MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE ALONG WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. SPOTTY SHOWERS LINGER INTO THURSDAY. DRY AND MILD
WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT
APPROACHES BRINGING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE FRI INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

815 PM UPDATE...

LOW PRES PASSING E OF CAPE COD AT 00Z AS WINDS ARE BACKING TO N
ACROSS MA AND INTO THE CT VALLEY. NOTED NW WIND GUSTING UP TO 24
KT AT KPSM AT 23Z AND 25 KT AT KLWM AT 22Z DUE TO PRES GRADIENT
INCREASE AS THE LOW PASSED ACROSS SE MA. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN BACK TO
THE 50S ACROSS MA/N CENTRAL CT...WHILE UP TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE ISLANDS. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN AREAS...ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. NOTED VSBYS BELOW 1/2SM
AT KACK...THOUGH SHOULD IMPROVE AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN.

CURRENT FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. UPDATED TO BRING NEAR TERM
CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL BE THE MAIN
STORY WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION. DO NOT
EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO BE WIDESPREAD OR DENSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
ADVISORY...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S WITH SOME LOWER 60S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MONDAY...

BIGGEST QUESTION MARK FOR MONDAY IS HOW QUICKLY LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN
OFF.  WE MAY STILL BE DEALING WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS IN THE
MORNING...BUT SHOULD SEE SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE EMERGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS OUR
NORTHWEST ZONES WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE...BUT PRETTY MUCH A DRY DAY ON
TAP. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 70S...SO IN A NUTSHELL MUCH BETTER
THEN TODAY.

BEACH FORECAST...

A MODERATE TO EVEN HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED
ON SOME OF OUR OCEAN EXPOSED BEACHES ON MONDAY.  HIGH SURF
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING...BUT THE NEXT
SHIFT MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT FOR MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
  WEDNESDAY...THEN SPOTTY SHOWERS LINGER INTO THURSDAY
* SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
* DRY AND MILD THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
* ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH MORE
  SCT SHOWERS

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

12Z OP MODEL SOLUTIONS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INTO WED NIGHT...THEN
SOLUTIONS WIDEN IN THE RESPONSE TO THE POSSIBLE BREAKING DOWN OF THE
LONG WAVE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/TROUGH ACROSS NORTH AMERICA
LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IT APPEARS THAT THE
TROUGHING BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED OVER TIME ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...
WHICH PRESENTS PROBLEMS IN TRYING TO TIME SENSIBLE WEATHER SURFACE
SYSTEMS IN THIS FAST FLOW ALOFT. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FROM THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ANY APPROACHING SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY AS THE
NORTHERN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE. DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME
BREAKS IN THE ACTION BETWEEN EACH SYSTEM SO THERE WILL BE SOME DRY
PERIODS AS WELL. 12Z OP MODEL SUITE CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A RATHER
STRONG SYSTEM DURING THE TUE NIGHT/WED TIMEFRAME WHICH CONTINUES TO
HAVE VERY GOOD MODEL SUPPORT AND AGREEMENT.

PLAN ON USING BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH WED NIGHT
THEN WILL TRANSITION OVER TO ENSEMBLES /GEFS AND ECENS/ FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE LARGE TIMING AND TRACK
DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS.

DETAILS...

MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING PUSHES QUICKLY ACROSS THE
REGION...SO EXPECT DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
CLOUDS MAY START TO INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS WESTERN AREAS.
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...RANGING TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

TUESDAY...NEXT SURFACE LOW AND FRONT SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE W IN
THE NEARLY PARALLEL UPPER LEVEL SW WIND FLOW. WILL SEE INCREASING
CLOUDS DURING THE DAY BUT...DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT...LOOKS LIKE BULK
OF THE PRECIP REMAINS W OF THE REGION. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS WORK
INTO THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES. GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION WORKING
IN THE SW FLOW SO EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY AROUND 80...JUST ABOUT AT THE
SEASONAL NORM FOR LATE JUNE.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...AS THE H5 SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT
SLOWLY APPROACH TUE NIGHT...WILL START TO SEE SCT SHOWERS MOVE IN
EARLY. BETTER DYNAMICS AND SCT ELEVATED CONVECTION LOOK TO APPROACH
AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AREAS THEN SHIFTS E TOWARD
DAYBREAK WED.

BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO OCCUR DURING WED...AND HAVE MENTIONED
SPOTTY CATEGORICAL POPS INLAND. WITH THE SW UPPER FLOW IN PLACE...
THIS SYSTEM REMAINS A SLOW MOVER. DEWPTS FORECAST TO RISE TO THE MID
AND UPPER 60S ALONG WITH PWATS INCREASING WITH THE SW FLOW...ON
ORDER OF 1.7 TO 1.9 INCHES. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL
ESPECIALLY IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.  IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY WITH THIS
SYSTEM...K INDICES TO THE UPPER 30S AND CAPES INCREASING TO 1000-
1500 J/KG WED AFTERNOON ALONG WITH GOOD SW SHEAR /H925 WINDS AROUND
30 KT AND H85 WINDS 30-35 KT/ ALONG WITH A STRONG UPPER JET PASSING
ACROSS. H5 COLD POOL ALSO SNEAKS IN...WITH TEMPS DOWN TO -10C TO
-12C WED AFTERNOON. SO...WILL BE MONITORING THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH TOWARD THE S
COAST WED NIGHT THEN LOOKS TO STALL A BIT FURTHER DOWN THE COAST.
WILL STILL SEE LEFTOVER SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS BUT SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE
BY MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO DEVELOP MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THEN...ON THURSDAY...SKIES WILL START OFF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY.
HOWEVER...WITH THE H5 COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SEE SOME SCT DIURNAL
SHOWERS DEVELOP MAINLY INLAND. ONLY CARRIED 20-30 PCT CHANCE MAINLY
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS SHOULD END WITH
SUNSET.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY DUE TO WIDE MODEL
SOLUTIONS. AT THIS POINT...SHOULD BE A DRY DAY FOR MOST OF FRIDAY
BEFORE MORE SCT SHOWERS MOVE IN. LOTS OF QUESTIONS ABOUT WHETHER A
WAVE OF LOW PRES FORMS ON STALLED FRONT TO THE S THAT MAY BRING MORE
MOISTURE FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. CARRIED ONLY CHANCE
POPS FOR THIS. TIMING IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION FOR YET ANOTHER FAST
MOVING SYSTEM LATE THIS WEEKEND. TEMPS OVER THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND
LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO OR ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

OVERNIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY IFR TO EVEN
LOCALIZED LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT IN LOW
CLOUDS...AREAS OF FOG/DRIZZLE ALONG WITH PASSING SHOWER OR TWO.
MOISTURE WILL REMAINED TRAPPED JUST BELOW THE INVERSION.

MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES IN THE MORNING SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR BUT IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFTERNOON FOR THIS TO HAPPEN IN
SOME LOCATIONS.  THIS AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF...BUT UNCERTAIN
AS TO EXACTLY WHEN CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN VFR ON MONDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF...BUT UNCERTAIN
AS TO EXACTLY WHEN CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN VFR ON MONDAY

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY...VFR MOST AREAS. PATCHY FOG EARLY TUE WITH LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY AROUND 14Z. LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS N CT INTO WESTERN-CENTRAL MA IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGHEST RISK FOR SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE WED WITH GUSTY WINDS. MVFR
LIKELY. LOCAL IFR IN ANY PATCHY FOG LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...LEFTOVER MVFR CONDITIONS IN ANY
SHOWERS/TSTMS EARLY WED NIGHT...THEN TRENDING TOWARD VFR WITH
SHOWERS ENDING. LOW CHANCE FOR SPOTTY SHOWERS LATE THU MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INLAND...BRIEF LOCAL MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...

OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES FOR SEAS WILL CONTINUE FROM LEFTOVER SWELL
THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUNDS AND ALL OUTER WATERS.
AREAS OF FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES FOR MARINERS INTO
MONDAY MORNING.

MAY ALSO SEE A PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS
ACROSS BUZZARDS BAY/NANTUCKET SOUND AND CAPE COD BAY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IF CONFIDENCE ON THE NEXT SHIFT GROWS...THEY MAY NEEDED
TO BE ADDED TO THE SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES FOR A TIME.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...LEFTOVER SW GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS WILL END EARLY. SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 5-7 FT EARLY ON THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY.

TUESDAY...EXPECT LIGHT S WINDS AND SEAS 4 FT OR LESS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...EXPECT S-SW WINDS TO INCREASE AHEAD
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GUSTS TO 20 KT MAINLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS. SEAS BUILDING UP TO 5-6 FT MAINLY ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG WITH PATCHY
FOG.

THURSDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO W AND DIMINISH. SEAS REMAIN AROUND 5 FT
ON THE OUTER WATERS.

FRIDAY...LIGHT WINDS BECOME E-SE. MAY SEE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS.
PATCHY FOG REDUCING VSBYS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK/EVT
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 290040
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
840 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
JUST A FEW SPOT SHOWERS WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL. WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOME
STORMS ON WEDNESDAY MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE ALONG WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. SPOTTY SHOWERS LINGER INTO THURSDAY. DRY AND MILD
WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT
APPROACHES BRINGING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE FRI INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

815 PM UPDATE...

LOW PRES PASSING E OF CAPE COD AT 00Z AS WINDS ARE BACKING TO N
ACROSS MA AND INTO THE CT VALLEY. NOTED NW WIND GUSTING UP TO 24
KT AT KPSM AT 23Z AND 25 KT AT KLWM AT 22Z DUE TO PRES GRADIENT
INCREASE AS THE LOW PASSED ACROSS SE MA. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN BACK TO
THE 50S ACROSS MA/N CENTRAL CT...WHILE UP TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE ISLANDS. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN AREAS...ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. NOTED VSBYS BELOW 1/2SM
AT KACK...THOUGH SHOULD IMPROVE AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN.

CURRENT FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. UPDATED TO BRING NEAR TERM
CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL BE THE MAIN
STORY WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION. DO NOT
EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO BE WIDESPREAD OR DENSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
ADVISORY...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S WITH SOME LOWER 60S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MONDAY...

BIGGEST QUESTION MARK FOR MONDAY IS HOW QUICKLY LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN
OFF.  WE MAY STILL BE DEALING WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS IN THE
MORNING...BUT SHOULD SEE SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE EMERGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS OUR
NORTHWEST ZONES WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE...BUT PRETTY MUCH A DRY DAY ON
TAP. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 70S...SO IN A NUTSHELL MUCH BETTER
THEN TODAY.

BEACH FORECAST...

A MODERATE TO EVEN HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED
ON SOME OF OUR OCEAN EXPOSED BEACHES ON MONDAY.  HIGH SURF
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING...BUT THE NEXT
SHIFT MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT FOR MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
  WEDNESDAY...THEN SPOTTY SHOWERS LINGER INTO THURSDAY
* SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
* DRY AND MILD THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
* ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH MORE
  SCT SHOWERS

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

12Z OP MODEL SOLUTIONS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INTO WED NIGHT...THEN
SOLUTIONS WIDEN IN THE RESPONSE TO THE POSSIBLE BREAKING DOWN OF THE
LONG WAVE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/TROUGH ACROSS NORTH AMERICA
LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IT APPEARS THAT THE
TROUGHING BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED OVER TIME ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...
WHICH PRESENTS PROBLEMS IN TRYING TO TIME SENSIBLE WEATHER SURFACE
SYSTEMS IN THIS FAST FLOW ALOFT. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FROM THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ANY APPROACHING SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY AS THE
NORTHERN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE. DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME
BREAKS IN THE ACTION BETWEEN EACH SYSTEM SO THERE WILL BE SOME DRY
PERIODS AS WELL. 12Z OP MODEL SUITE CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A RATHER
STRONG SYSTEM DURING THE TUE NIGHT/WED TIMEFRAME WHICH CONTINUES TO
HAVE VERY GOOD MODEL SUPPORT AND AGREEMENT.

PLAN ON USING BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH WED NIGHT
THEN WILL TRANSITION OVER TO ENSEMBLES /GEFS AND ECENS/ FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE LARGE TIMING AND TRACK
DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS.

DETAILS...

MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING PUSHES QUICKLY ACROSS THE
REGION...SO EXPECT DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
CLOUDS MAY START TO INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS WESTERN AREAS.
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...RANGING TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

TUESDAY...NEXT SURFACE LOW AND FRONT SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE W IN
THE NEARLY PARALLEL UPPER LEVEL SW WIND FLOW. WILL SEE INCREASING
CLOUDS DURING THE DAY BUT...DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT...LOOKS LIKE BULK
OF THE PRECIP REMAINS W OF THE REGION. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS WORK
INTO THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES. GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION WORKING
IN THE SW FLOW SO EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY AROUND 80...JUST ABOUT AT THE
SEASONAL NORM FOR LATE JUNE.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...AS THE H5 SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT
SLOWLY APPROACH TUE NIGHT...WILL START TO SEE SCT SHOWERS MOVE IN
EARLY. BETTER DYNAMICS AND SCT ELEVATED CONVECTION LOOK TO APPROACH
AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AREAS THEN SHIFTS E TOWARD
DAYBREAK WED.

BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO OCCUR DURING WED...AND HAVE MENTIONED
SPOTTY CATEGORICAL POPS INLAND. WITH THE SW UPPER FLOW IN PLACE...
THIS SYSTEM REMAINS A SLOW MOVER. DEWPTS FORECAST TO RISE TO THE MID
AND UPPER 60S ALONG WITH PWATS INCREASING WITH THE SW FLOW...ON
ORDER OF 1.7 TO 1.9 INCHES. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL
ESPECIALLY IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.  IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY WITH THIS
SYSTEM...K INDICES TO THE UPPER 30S AND CAPES INCREASING TO 1000-
1500 J/KG WED AFTERNOON ALONG WITH GOOD SW SHEAR /H925 WINDS AROUND
30 KT AND H85 WINDS 30-35 KT/ ALONG WITH A STRONG UPPER JET PASSING
ACROSS. H5 COLD POOL ALSO SNEAKS IN...WITH TEMPS DOWN TO -10C TO
-12C WED AFTERNOON. SO...WILL BE MONITORING THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH TOWARD THE S
COAST WED NIGHT THEN LOOKS TO STALL A BIT FURTHER DOWN THE COAST.
WILL STILL SEE LEFTOVER SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS BUT SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE
BY MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO DEVELOP MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THEN...ON THURSDAY...SKIES WILL START OFF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY.
HOWEVER...WITH THE H5 COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SEE SOME SCT DIURNAL
SHOWERS DEVELOP MAINLY INLAND. ONLY CARRIED 20-30 PCT CHANCE MAINLY
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS SHOULD END WITH
SUNSET.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY DUE TO WIDE MODEL
SOLUTIONS. AT THIS POINT...SHOULD BE A DRY DAY FOR MOST OF FRIDAY
BEFORE MORE SCT SHOWERS MOVE IN. LOTS OF QUESTIONS ABOUT WHETHER A
WAVE OF LOW PRES FORMS ON STALLED FRONT TO THE S THAT MAY BRING MORE
MOISTURE FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. CARRIED ONLY CHANCE
POPS FOR THIS. TIMING IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION FOR YET ANOTHER FAST
MOVING SYSTEM LATE THIS WEEKEND. TEMPS OVER THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND
LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO OR ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

OVERNIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY IFR TO EVEN
LOCALIZED LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT IN LOW
CLOUDS...AREAS OF FOG/DRIZZLE ALONG WITH PASSING SHOWER OR TWO.
MOISTURE WILL REMAINED TRAPPED JUST BELOW THE INVERSION.

MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES IN THE MORNING SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR BUT IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFTERNOON FOR THIS TO HAPPEN IN
SOME LOCATIONS.  THIS AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF...BUT UNCERTAIN
AS TO EXACTLY WHEN CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN VFR ON MONDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF...BUT UNCERTAIN
AS TO EXACTLY WHEN CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN VFR ON MONDAY

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY...VFR MOST AREAS. PATCHY FOG EARLY TUE WITH LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY AROUND 14Z. LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS N CT INTO WESTERN-CENTRAL MA IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGHEST RISK FOR SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE WED WITH GUSTY WINDS. MVFR
LIKELY. LOCAL IFR IN ANY PATCHY FOG LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...LEFTOVER MVFR CONDITIONS IN ANY
SHOWERS/TSTMS EARLY WED NIGHT...THEN TRENDING TOWARD VFR WITH
SHOWERS ENDING. LOW CHANCE FOR SPOTTY SHOWERS LATE THU MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INLAND...BRIEF LOCAL MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...

OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES FOR SEAS WILL CONTINUE FROM LEFTOVER SWELL
THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUNDS AND ALL OUTER WATERS.
AREAS OF FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES FOR MARINERS INTO
MONDAY MORNING.

MAY ALSO SEE A PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS
ACROSS BUZZARDS BAY/NANTUCKET SOUND AND CAPE COD BAY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IF CONFIDENCE ON THE NEXT SHIFT GROWS...THEY MAY NEEDED
TO BE ADDED TO THE SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES FOR A TIME.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...LEFTOVER SW GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS WILL END EARLY. SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 5-7 FT EARLY ON THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY.

TUESDAY...EXPECT LIGHT S WINDS AND SEAS 4 FT OR LESS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...EXPECT S-SW WINDS TO INCREASE AHEAD
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GUSTS TO 20 KT MAINLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS. SEAS BUILDING UP TO 5-6 FT MAINLY ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG WITH PATCHY
FOG.

THURSDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO W AND DIMINISH. SEAS REMAIN AROUND 5 FT
ON THE OUTER WATERS.

FRIDAY...LIGHT WINDS BECOME E-SE. MAY SEE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS.
PATCHY FOG REDUCING VSBYS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK/EVT
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 290040
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
840 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
JUST A FEW SPOT SHOWERS WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL. WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOME
STORMS ON WEDNESDAY MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE ALONG WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. SPOTTY SHOWERS LINGER INTO THURSDAY. DRY AND MILD
WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT
APPROACHES BRINGING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE FRI INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

815 PM UPDATE...

LOW PRES PASSING E OF CAPE COD AT 00Z AS WINDS ARE BACKING TO N
ACROSS MA AND INTO THE CT VALLEY. NOTED NW WIND GUSTING UP TO 24
KT AT KPSM AT 23Z AND 25 KT AT KLWM AT 22Z DUE TO PRES GRADIENT
INCREASE AS THE LOW PASSED ACROSS SE MA. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN BACK TO
THE 50S ACROSS MA/N CENTRAL CT...WHILE UP TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE ISLANDS. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN AREAS...ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. NOTED VSBYS BELOW 1/2SM
AT KACK...THOUGH SHOULD IMPROVE AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN.

CURRENT FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. UPDATED TO BRING NEAR TERM
CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL BE THE MAIN
STORY WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION. DO NOT
EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO BE WIDESPREAD OR DENSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
ADVISORY...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S WITH SOME LOWER 60S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MONDAY...

BIGGEST QUESTION MARK FOR MONDAY IS HOW QUICKLY LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN
OFF.  WE MAY STILL BE DEALING WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS IN THE
MORNING...BUT SHOULD SEE SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE EMERGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS OUR
NORTHWEST ZONES WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE...BUT PRETTY MUCH A DRY DAY ON
TAP. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 70S...SO IN A NUTSHELL MUCH BETTER
THEN TODAY.

BEACH FORECAST...

A MODERATE TO EVEN HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED
ON SOME OF OUR OCEAN EXPOSED BEACHES ON MONDAY.  HIGH SURF
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING...BUT THE NEXT
SHIFT MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT FOR MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
  WEDNESDAY...THEN SPOTTY SHOWERS LINGER INTO THURSDAY
* SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
* DRY AND MILD THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
* ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH MORE
  SCT SHOWERS

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

12Z OP MODEL SOLUTIONS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INTO WED NIGHT...THEN
SOLUTIONS WIDEN IN THE RESPONSE TO THE POSSIBLE BREAKING DOWN OF THE
LONG WAVE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/TROUGH ACROSS NORTH AMERICA
LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IT APPEARS THAT THE
TROUGHING BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED OVER TIME ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...
WHICH PRESENTS PROBLEMS IN TRYING TO TIME SENSIBLE WEATHER SURFACE
SYSTEMS IN THIS FAST FLOW ALOFT. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FROM THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ANY APPROACHING SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY AS THE
NORTHERN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE. DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME
BREAKS IN THE ACTION BETWEEN EACH SYSTEM SO THERE WILL BE SOME DRY
PERIODS AS WELL. 12Z OP MODEL SUITE CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A RATHER
STRONG SYSTEM DURING THE TUE NIGHT/WED TIMEFRAME WHICH CONTINUES TO
HAVE VERY GOOD MODEL SUPPORT AND AGREEMENT.

PLAN ON USING BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH WED NIGHT
THEN WILL TRANSITION OVER TO ENSEMBLES /GEFS AND ECENS/ FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE LARGE TIMING AND TRACK
DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS.

DETAILS...

MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING PUSHES QUICKLY ACROSS THE
REGION...SO EXPECT DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
CLOUDS MAY START TO INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS WESTERN AREAS.
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...RANGING TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

TUESDAY...NEXT SURFACE LOW AND FRONT SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE W IN
THE NEARLY PARALLEL UPPER LEVEL SW WIND FLOW. WILL SEE INCREASING
CLOUDS DURING THE DAY BUT...DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT...LOOKS LIKE BULK
OF THE PRECIP REMAINS W OF THE REGION. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS WORK
INTO THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES. GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION WORKING
IN THE SW FLOW SO EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY AROUND 80...JUST ABOUT AT THE
SEASONAL NORM FOR LATE JUNE.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...AS THE H5 SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT
SLOWLY APPROACH TUE NIGHT...WILL START TO SEE SCT SHOWERS MOVE IN
EARLY. BETTER DYNAMICS AND SCT ELEVATED CONVECTION LOOK TO APPROACH
AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AREAS THEN SHIFTS E TOWARD
DAYBREAK WED.

BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO OCCUR DURING WED...AND HAVE MENTIONED
SPOTTY CATEGORICAL POPS INLAND. WITH THE SW UPPER FLOW IN PLACE...
THIS SYSTEM REMAINS A SLOW MOVER. DEWPTS FORECAST TO RISE TO THE MID
AND UPPER 60S ALONG WITH PWATS INCREASING WITH THE SW FLOW...ON
ORDER OF 1.7 TO 1.9 INCHES. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL
ESPECIALLY IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.  IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY WITH THIS
SYSTEM...K INDICES TO THE UPPER 30S AND CAPES INCREASING TO 1000-
1500 J/KG WED AFTERNOON ALONG WITH GOOD SW SHEAR /H925 WINDS AROUND
30 KT AND H85 WINDS 30-35 KT/ ALONG WITH A STRONG UPPER JET PASSING
ACROSS. H5 COLD POOL ALSO SNEAKS IN...WITH TEMPS DOWN TO -10C TO
-12C WED AFTERNOON. SO...WILL BE MONITORING THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH TOWARD THE S
COAST WED NIGHT THEN LOOKS TO STALL A BIT FURTHER DOWN THE COAST.
WILL STILL SEE LEFTOVER SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS BUT SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE
BY MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO DEVELOP MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THEN...ON THURSDAY...SKIES WILL START OFF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY.
HOWEVER...WITH THE H5 COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SEE SOME SCT DIURNAL
SHOWERS DEVELOP MAINLY INLAND. ONLY CARRIED 20-30 PCT CHANCE MAINLY
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS SHOULD END WITH
SUNSET.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY DUE TO WIDE MODEL
SOLUTIONS. AT THIS POINT...SHOULD BE A DRY DAY FOR MOST OF FRIDAY
BEFORE MORE SCT SHOWERS MOVE IN. LOTS OF QUESTIONS ABOUT WHETHER A
WAVE OF LOW PRES FORMS ON STALLED FRONT TO THE S THAT MAY BRING MORE
MOISTURE FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. CARRIED ONLY CHANCE
POPS FOR THIS. TIMING IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION FOR YET ANOTHER FAST
MOVING SYSTEM LATE THIS WEEKEND. TEMPS OVER THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND
LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO OR ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

OVERNIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY IFR TO EVEN
LOCALIZED LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT IN LOW
CLOUDS...AREAS OF FOG/DRIZZLE ALONG WITH PASSING SHOWER OR TWO.
MOISTURE WILL REMAINED TRAPPED JUST BELOW THE INVERSION.

MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES IN THE MORNING SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR BUT IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFTERNOON FOR THIS TO HAPPEN IN
SOME LOCATIONS.  THIS AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF...BUT UNCERTAIN
AS TO EXACTLY WHEN CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN VFR ON MONDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF...BUT UNCERTAIN
AS TO EXACTLY WHEN CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN VFR ON MONDAY

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY...VFR MOST AREAS. PATCHY FOG EARLY TUE WITH LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY AROUND 14Z. LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS N CT INTO WESTERN-CENTRAL MA IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGHEST RISK FOR SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE WED WITH GUSTY WINDS. MVFR
LIKELY. LOCAL IFR IN ANY PATCHY FOG LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...LEFTOVER MVFR CONDITIONS IN ANY
SHOWERS/TSTMS EARLY WED NIGHT...THEN TRENDING TOWARD VFR WITH
SHOWERS ENDING. LOW CHANCE FOR SPOTTY SHOWERS LATE THU MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INLAND...BRIEF LOCAL MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...

OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES FOR SEAS WILL CONTINUE FROM LEFTOVER SWELL
THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUNDS AND ALL OUTER WATERS.
AREAS OF FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES FOR MARINERS INTO
MONDAY MORNING.

MAY ALSO SEE A PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS
ACROSS BUZZARDS BAY/NANTUCKET SOUND AND CAPE COD BAY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IF CONFIDENCE ON THE NEXT SHIFT GROWS...THEY MAY NEEDED
TO BE ADDED TO THE SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES FOR A TIME.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...LEFTOVER SW GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS WILL END EARLY. SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 5-7 FT EARLY ON THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY.

TUESDAY...EXPECT LIGHT S WINDS AND SEAS 4 FT OR LESS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...EXPECT S-SW WINDS TO INCREASE AHEAD
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GUSTS TO 20 KT MAINLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS. SEAS BUILDING UP TO 5-6 FT MAINLY ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG WITH PATCHY
FOG.

THURSDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO W AND DIMINISH. SEAS REMAIN AROUND 5 FT
ON THE OUTER WATERS.

FRIDAY...LIGHT WINDS BECOME E-SE. MAY SEE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS.
PATCHY FOG REDUCING VSBYS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK/EVT
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 290040
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
840 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
JUST A FEW SPOT SHOWERS WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL. WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN TUESDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOME
STORMS ON WEDNESDAY MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE ALONG WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. SPOTTY SHOWERS LINGER INTO THURSDAY. DRY AND MILD
WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT
APPROACHES BRINGING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE FRI INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

815 PM UPDATE...

LOW PRES PASSING E OF CAPE COD AT 00Z AS WINDS ARE BACKING TO N
ACROSS MA AND INTO THE CT VALLEY. NOTED NW WIND GUSTING UP TO 24
KT AT KPSM AT 23Z AND 25 KT AT KLWM AT 22Z DUE TO PRES GRADIENT
INCREASE AS THE LOW PASSED ACROSS SE MA. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN BACK TO
THE 50S ACROSS MA/N CENTRAL CT...WHILE UP TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE ISLANDS. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN AREAS...ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. NOTED VSBYS BELOW 1/2SM
AT KACK...THOUGH SHOULD IMPROVE AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN.

CURRENT FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. UPDATED TO BRING NEAR TERM
CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL BE THE MAIN
STORY WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION. DO NOT
EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO BE WIDESPREAD OR DENSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
ADVISORY...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S WITH SOME LOWER 60S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CAPE/ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MONDAY...

BIGGEST QUESTION MARK FOR MONDAY IS HOW QUICKLY LOW CLOUDS WILL BURN
OFF.  WE MAY STILL BE DEALING WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS IN THE
MORNING...BUT SHOULD SEE SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE EMERGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS OUR
NORTHWEST ZONES WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE...BUT PRETTY MUCH A DRY DAY ON
TAP. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 70S...SO IN A NUTSHELL MUCH BETTER
THEN TODAY.

BEACH FORECAST...

A MODERATE TO EVEN HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED
ON SOME OF OUR OCEAN EXPOSED BEACHES ON MONDAY.  HIGH SURF
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING...BUT THE NEXT
SHIFT MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT FOR MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
  WEDNESDAY...THEN SPOTTY SHOWERS LINGER INTO THURSDAY
* SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
* DRY AND MILD THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
* ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH MORE
  SCT SHOWERS

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

12Z OP MODEL SOLUTIONS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INTO WED NIGHT...THEN
SOLUTIONS WIDEN IN THE RESPONSE TO THE POSSIBLE BREAKING DOWN OF THE
LONG WAVE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/TROUGH ACROSS NORTH AMERICA
LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IT APPEARS THAT THE
TROUGHING BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED OVER TIME ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...
WHICH PRESENTS PROBLEMS IN TRYING TO TIME SENSIBLE WEATHER SURFACE
SYSTEMS IN THIS FAST FLOW ALOFT. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FROM THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ANY APPROACHING SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY AS THE
NORTHERN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE. DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME
BREAKS IN THE ACTION BETWEEN EACH SYSTEM SO THERE WILL BE SOME DRY
PERIODS AS WELL. 12Z OP MODEL SUITE CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A RATHER
STRONG SYSTEM DURING THE TUE NIGHT/WED TIMEFRAME WHICH CONTINUES TO
HAVE VERY GOOD MODEL SUPPORT AND AGREEMENT.

PLAN ON USING BLEND OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH WED NIGHT
THEN WILL TRANSITION OVER TO ENSEMBLES /GEFS AND ECENS/ FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE LARGE TIMING AND TRACK
DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS.

DETAILS...

MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING PUSHES QUICKLY ACROSS THE
REGION...SO EXPECT DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
CLOUDS MAY START TO INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS WESTERN AREAS.
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...RANGING TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

TUESDAY...NEXT SURFACE LOW AND FRONT SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE W IN
THE NEARLY PARALLEL UPPER LEVEL SW WIND FLOW. WILL SEE INCREASING
CLOUDS DURING THE DAY BUT...DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT...LOOKS LIKE BULK
OF THE PRECIP REMAINS W OF THE REGION. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS WORK
INTO THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES. GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION WORKING
IN THE SW FLOW SO EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY AROUND 80...JUST ABOUT AT THE
SEASONAL NORM FOR LATE JUNE.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...AS THE H5 SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT
SLOWLY APPROACH TUE NIGHT...WILL START TO SEE SCT SHOWERS MOVE IN
EARLY. BETTER DYNAMICS AND SCT ELEVATED CONVECTION LOOK TO APPROACH
AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AREAS THEN SHIFTS E TOWARD
DAYBREAK WED.

BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO OCCUR DURING WED...AND HAVE MENTIONED
SPOTTY CATEGORICAL POPS INLAND. WITH THE SW UPPER FLOW IN PLACE...
THIS SYSTEM REMAINS A SLOW MOVER. DEWPTS FORECAST TO RISE TO THE MID
AND UPPER 60S ALONG WITH PWATS INCREASING WITH THE SW FLOW...ON
ORDER OF 1.7 TO 1.9 INCHES. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL
ESPECIALLY IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.  IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY WITH THIS
SYSTEM...K INDICES TO THE UPPER 30S AND CAPES INCREASING TO 1000-
1500 J/KG WED AFTERNOON ALONG WITH GOOD SW SHEAR /H925 WINDS AROUND
30 KT AND H85 WINDS 30-35 KT/ ALONG WITH A STRONG UPPER JET PASSING
ACROSS. H5 COLD POOL ALSO SNEAKS IN...WITH TEMPS DOWN TO -10C TO
-12C WED AFTERNOON. SO...WILL BE MONITORING THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH TOWARD THE S
COAST WED NIGHT THEN LOOKS TO STALL A BIT FURTHER DOWN THE COAST.
WILL STILL SEE LEFTOVER SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS BUT SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE
BY MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO DEVELOP MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THEN...ON THURSDAY...SKIES WILL START OFF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY.
HOWEVER...WITH THE H5 COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SEE SOME SCT DIURNAL
SHOWERS DEVELOP MAINLY INLAND. ONLY CARRIED 20-30 PCT CHANCE MAINLY
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS SHOULD END WITH
SUNSET.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY DUE TO WIDE MODEL
SOLUTIONS. AT THIS POINT...SHOULD BE A DRY DAY FOR MOST OF FRIDAY
BEFORE MORE SCT SHOWERS MOVE IN. LOTS OF QUESTIONS ABOUT WHETHER A
WAVE OF LOW PRES FORMS ON STALLED FRONT TO THE S THAT MAY BRING MORE
MOISTURE FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. CARRIED ONLY CHANCE
POPS FOR THIS. TIMING IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION FOR YET ANOTHER FAST
MOVING SYSTEM LATE THIS WEEKEND. TEMPS OVER THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND
LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO OR ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

OVERNIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY IFR TO EVEN
LOCALIZED LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT IN LOW
CLOUDS...AREAS OF FOG/DRIZZLE ALONG WITH PASSING SHOWER OR TWO.
MOISTURE WILL REMAINED TRAPPED JUST BELOW THE INVERSION.

MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES IN THE MORNING SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR BUT IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFTERNOON FOR THIS TO HAPPEN IN
SOME LOCATIONS.  THIS AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF...BUT UNCERTAIN
AS TO EXACTLY WHEN CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN VFR ON MONDAY.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF...BUT UNCERTAIN
AS TO EXACTLY WHEN CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN VFR ON MONDAY

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY...VFR MOST AREAS. PATCHY FOG EARLY TUE WITH LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY AROUND 14Z. LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS N CT INTO WESTERN-CENTRAL MA IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGHEST RISK FOR SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE WED WITH GUSTY WINDS. MVFR
LIKELY. LOCAL IFR IN ANY PATCHY FOG LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...LEFTOVER MVFR CONDITIONS IN ANY
SHOWERS/TSTMS EARLY WED NIGHT...THEN TRENDING TOWARD VFR WITH
SHOWERS ENDING. LOW CHANCE FOR SPOTTY SHOWERS LATE THU MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INLAND...BRIEF LOCAL MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...

OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES FOR SEAS WILL CONTINUE FROM LEFTOVER SWELL
THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUNDS AND ALL OUTER WATERS.
AREAS OF FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES FOR MARINERS INTO
MONDAY MORNING.

MAY ALSO SEE A PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS
ACROSS BUZZARDS BAY/NANTUCKET SOUND AND CAPE COD BAY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IF CONFIDENCE ON THE NEXT SHIFT GROWS...THEY MAY NEEDED
TO BE ADDED TO THE SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES FOR A TIME.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...LEFTOVER SW GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS WILL END EARLY. SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 5-7 FT EARLY ON THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY.

TUESDAY...EXPECT LIGHT S WINDS AND SEAS 4 FT OR LESS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...EXPECT S-SW WINDS TO INCREASE AHEAD
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GUSTS TO 20 KT MAINLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS. SEAS BUILDING UP TO 5-6 FT MAINLY ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG WITH PATCHY
FOG.

THURSDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO W AND DIMINISH. SEAS REMAIN AROUND 5 FT
ON THE OUTER WATERS.

FRIDAY...LIGHT WINDS BECOME E-SE. MAY SEE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS.
PATCHY FOG REDUCING VSBYS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK/EVT
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT



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