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000
FXUS61 KBOX 010604
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
204 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO
TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LESS HUMID
WEATHER WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS HAVE DIED DOWN. STILL A LOT OF MOISTURE IN THE AIR...AND
WITH LIGHT WIND THAT SHOULD ALLOW AREAS OF FOG TO FORM.

RADAR SHOWS TSTMS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY COAST MOVING EAST. THESE
SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS ROUGHLY 4-6 AM. LOW END CHANCE
THAT THESE COULD GRAZE THE ISLANDS...MOSTLY THEY SHOULDBE OFFSHORE
TO THE SOUTH.

WARM MUGGY AIR CONTINUES WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S. THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
GENERALLY 5 KNOTS OR LESS...SO EXPECT FOG AREAS TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO DEW POINT...IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
MONDAY...
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY/FRONT DRAPED ACROSS FAR N NEW ENG. PWATS DECREASE BELOW
1.5" ACROSS THE N BUT TROPICAL PLUME WITH PWATS NEAR 2" WILL
PERSIST IN THE SOUTH. AIRMASS DESTABILIZES AGAIN WITH SBCAPES
1000-1500 J/KG. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE IS PRESENT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET. 0-6KM SHEAR IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER SO SEVERE WX NOT
ANTICIPATED. HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE MAIN THREAT IN HIGH PWAT
AIRMASS. TEMPS WILL REACH LOW TO MID 80S AGAIN...COOLER S COAST.
DEWPOINTS 70+ SO VERY HUMID.

MONDAY NIGHT...
COLUMN MOISTURE GRADUALLY DECREASES THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME
LINGERING CONVECTION POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING ALONG THE S
COAST...OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER. AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG
WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER HUMID NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

BROAD RIDGING REMAINS THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE EASTERN USA
THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS MORE TYPICAL FOR THE
MIDDLE OF SUMMER RATHER THAN EARLY SEPTEMBER. EARLY IN THIS
PERIOD...THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN THE BROAD
NORTHERN STREAM THAT WILL AFFECT OUR REGION. THIS STRONG RIDGE
FINALLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED AROUND MID WEEK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
USA...WITH WARM BUT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS AS TO WHEN THE RIDGING MAY BREAK DOWN...AS MODEL
SOLUTIONS LATE IN THE RUN TRY TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE WHILE BRINGING
A MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO NORTHERN
QUEBEC.

OVERALL...HAVE FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE WITH MOST OF THIS FORECAST...
THOUGH SOME QUESTIONS WITH POSSIBLE CHANGES IN THE STEERING PATTERN
OVER THE NORTHERN TIER LATE THIS WEEK. HAVE LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO FRIDAY...THEN PUSHED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE
ECENS AND GEFS MEANS WHICH SHOWED A SLOWER BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGING
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF
THIS FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM STEADILY WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS OUT OF NY
STATE...THOUGH SOME TIMING ISSUES IN PLACE AMONGST THE OPERATIONAL
MODEL SUITE. KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NH/WESTERN MA AROUND
MIDDAY. THEN PUSHED THIS FRONT....AND THE CORRESPONDING INCREASED
RAINFALL CHANCES...EAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS TIMING MAY STILL BE TOO FAST.

WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING DRIER AIR TO SLOWLY ARRIVE DURING THE DAY ON
LIGHT WEST WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OUT OF THE APPALACHIANS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH A GENERAL
WEST WIND FLOW THROUGHOUT THE LAYER. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS LINGER
ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECTING DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUING
WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S...THOUGH AROUND 60 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE...RESULTING
AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS.  THIS SHOULD MEAN SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COASTS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOTS OF QUESTIONS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...
MAINLY DUE TO TIMING ISSUES OF A COLD FRONT. KEPT MENTION OF CHANCE
POPS AS A COLD FRONT TRIES TO CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
WEEKEND. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS FEATURE. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
EVENTUALLY RETURN LATER SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OVERNIGHT...AREAS OF IFR IN FOG AND STRATUS OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCE
FOR THIS WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS...AND ALONG
CAPE COD BAY. ALSO A GOOD CHANCE FOR IFR/LIFR IN THE CT RIVER
VALLEY.

TODAY...IFR CIGS MAY LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY. NORTH OF THERE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR. ANOTHER
DISTUBANCE PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND BUT MAY GENERATE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS CT/RI/SE MASS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. BRIEF
MVFR/IFR IN ANY TSTMS.

TONIGHT...EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS. BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN ANY STORMS. QUIET WEATHER THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR/LIFR IN STRATUS AND FOG. BEST CHANCE
WILL AGAIN BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE CT
RIVER VALLEY.

TUESDAY...MORNING FOG AND LOW CONDITIONS BURN OFF. VFR THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG RETURNS AFTER
05Z-06Z WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN NORMALLY PRONE INLAND LOCATIONS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS AND CIGS
IN LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS. MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR /SOUTHWEST NH
AND NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA/.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST AND WINDS ARE RESPONDING
BY DIMINISHING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS ENDED CLOSE TO SHORE BUT
WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY INTO MONDAY
EVENING. OTHERWISE...AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY REDUCE VSBYS LATER
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECTING WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MAY SEE SOME SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT TUE NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING TO W-NW AND
DIMINISHING BY WED MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...WTB/BELK
MARINE...BELK/KJC



000
FXUS61 KBOX 010604
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
204 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO
TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LESS HUMID
WEATHER WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS HAVE DIED DOWN. STILL A LOT OF MOISTURE IN THE AIR...AND
WITH LIGHT WIND THAT SHOULD ALLOW AREAS OF FOG TO FORM.

RADAR SHOWS TSTMS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY COAST MOVING EAST. THESE
SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS ROUGHLY 4-6 AM. LOW END CHANCE
THAT THESE COULD GRAZE THE ISLANDS...MOSTLY THEY SHOULDBE OFFSHORE
TO THE SOUTH.

WARM MUGGY AIR CONTINUES WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S. THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
GENERALLY 5 KNOTS OR LESS...SO EXPECT FOG AREAS TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO DEW POINT...IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
MONDAY...
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY/FRONT DRAPED ACROSS FAR N NEW ENG. PWATS DECREASE BELOW
1.5" ACROSS THE N BUT TROPICAL PLUME WITH PWATS NEAR 2" WILL
PERSIST IN THE SOUTH. AIRMASS DESTABILIZES AGAIN WITH SBCAPES
1000-1500 J/KG. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE IS PRESENT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET. 0-6KM SHEAR IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER SO SEVERE WX NOT
ANTICIPATED. HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE MAIN THREAT IN HIGH PWAT
AIRMASS. TEMPS WILL REACH LOW TO MID 80S AGAIN...COOLER S COAST.
DEWPOINTS 70+ SO VERY HUMID.

MONDAY NIGHT...
COLUMN MOISTURE GRADUALLY DECREASES THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME
LINGERING CONVECTION POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING ALONG THE S
COAST...OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER. AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG
WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER HUMID NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

BROAD RIDGING REMAINS THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE EASTERN USA
THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS MORE TYPICAL FOR THE
MIDDLE OF SUMMER RATHER THAN EARLY SEPTEMBER. EARLY IN THIS
PERIOD...THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN THE BROAD
NORTHERN STREAM THAT WILL AFFECT OUR REGION. THIS STRONG RIDGE
FINALLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED AROUND MID WEEK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
USA...WITH WARM BUT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS AS TO WHEN THE RIDGING MAY BREAK DOWN...AS MODEL
SOLUTIONS LATE IN THE RUN TRY TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE WHILE BRINGING
A MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO NORTHERN
QUEBEC.

OVERALL...HAVE FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE WITH MOST OF THIS FORECAST...
THOUGH SOME QUESTIONS WITH POSSIBLE CHANGES IN THE STEERING PATTERN
OVER THE NORTHERN TIER LATE THIS WEEK. HAVE LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO FRIDAY...THEN PUSHED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE
ECENS AND GEFS MEANS WHICH SHOWED A SLOWER BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGING
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF
THIS FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM STEADILY WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS OUT OF NY
STATE...THOUGH SOME TIMING ISSUES IN PLACE AMONGST THE OPERATIONAL
MODEL SUITE. KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NH/WESTERN MA AROUND
MIDDAY. THEN PUSHED THIS FRONT....AND THE CORRESPONDING INCREASED
RAINFALL CHANCES...EAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS TIMING MAY STILL BE TOO FAST.

WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING DRIER AIR TO SLOWLY ARRIVE DURING THE DAY ON
LIGHT WEST WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OUT OF THE APPALACHIANS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH A GENERAL
WEST WIND FLOW THROUGHOUT THE LAYER. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS LINGER
ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECTING DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUING
WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S...THOUGH AROUND 60 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE...RESULTING
AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS.  THIS SHOULD MEAN SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COASTS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOTS OF QUESTIONS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...
MAINLY DUE TO TIMING ISSUES OF A COLD FRONT. KEPT MENTION OF CHANCE
POPS AS A COLD FRONT TRIES TO CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
WEEKEND. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS FEATURE. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
EVENTUALLY RETURN LATER SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OVERNIGHT...AREAS OF IFR IN FOG AND STRATUS OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCE
FOR THIS WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS...AND ALONG
CAPE COD BAY. ALSO A GOOD CHANCE FOR IFR/LIFR IN THE CT RIVER
VALLEY.

TODAY...IFR CIGS MAY LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY. NORTH OF THERE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR. ANOTHER
DISTUBANCE PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND BUT MAY GENERATE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS CT/RI/SE MASS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. BRIEF
MVFR/IFR IN ANY TSTMS.

TONIGHT...EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS. BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN ANY STORMS. QUIET WEATHER THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR/LIFR IN STRATUS AND FOG. BEST CHANCE
WILL AGAIN BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE CT
RIVER VALLEY.

TUESDAY...MORNING FOG AND LOW CONDITIONS BURN OFF. VFR THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG RETURNS AFTER
05Z-06Z WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN NORMALLY PRONE INLAND LOCATIONS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS AND CIGS
IN LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS. MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR /SOUTHWEST NH
AND NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA/.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST AND WINDS ARE RESPONDING
BY DIMINISHING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS ENDED CLOSE TO SHORE BUT
WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY INTO MONDAY
EVENING. OTHERWISE...AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY REDUCE VSBYS LATER
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECTING WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MAY SEE SOME SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT TUE NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING TO W-NW AND
DIMINISHING BY WED MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...WTB/BELK
MARINE...BELK/KJC



000
FXUS61 KBOX 010604
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
204 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO
TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LESS HUMID
WEATHER WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS HAVE DIED DOWN. STILL A LOT OF MOISTURE IN THE AIR...AND
WITH LIGHT WIND THAT SHOULD ALLOW AREAS OF FOG TO FORM.

RADAR SHOWS TSTMS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY COAST MOVING EAST. THESE
SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS ROUGHLY 4-6 AM. LOW END CHANCE
THAT THESE COULD GRAZE THE ISLANDS...MOSTLY THEY SHOULDBE OFFSHORE
TO THE SOUTH.

WARM MUGGY AIR CONTINUES WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S. THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
GENERALLY 5 KNOTS OR LESS...SO EXPECT FOG AREAS TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO DEW POINT...IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
MONDAY...
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY/FRONT DRAPED ACROSS FAR N NEW ENG. PWATS DECREASE BELOW
1.5" ACROSS THE N BUT TROPICAL PLUME WITH PWATS NEAR 2" WILL
PERSIST IN THE SOUTH. AIRMASS DESTABILIZES AGAIN WITH SBCAPES
1000-1500 J/KG. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE IS PRESENT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET. 0-6KM SHEAR IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER SO SEVERE WX NOT
ANTICIPATED. HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE MAIN THREAT IN HIGH PWAT
AIRMASS. TEMPS WILL REACH LOW TO MID 80S AGAIN...COOLER S COAST.
DEWPOINTS 70+ SO VERY HUMID.

MONDAY NIGHT...
COLUMN MOISTURE GRADUALLY DECREASES THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME
LINGERING CONVECTION POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING ALONG THE S
COAST...OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER. AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG
WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER HUMID NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

BROAD RIDGING REMAINS THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE EASTERN USA
THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS MORE TYPICAL FOR THE
MIDDLE OF SUMMER RATHER THAN EARLY SEPTEMBER. EARLY IN THIS
PERIOD...THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN THE BROAD
NORTHERN STREAM THAT WILL AFFECT OUR REGION. THIS STRONG RIDGE
FINALLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED AROUND MID WEEK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
USA...WITH WARM BUT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS AS TO WHEN THE RIDGING MAY BREAK DOWN...AS MODEL
SOLUTIONS LATE IN THE RUN TRY TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE WHILE BRINGING
A MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO NORTHERN
QUEBEC.

OVERALL...HAVE FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE WITH MOST OF THIS FORECAST...
THOUGH SOME QUESTIONS WITH POSSIBLE CHANGES IN THE STEERING PATTERN
OVER THE NORTHERN TIER LATE THIS WEEK. HAVE LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO FRIDAY...THEN PUSHED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE
ECENS AND GEFS MEANS WHICH SHOWED A SLOWER BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGING
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF
THIS FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM STEADILY WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS OUT OF NY
STATE...THOUGH SOME TIMING ISSUES IN PLACE AMONGST THE OPERATIONAL
MODEL SUITE. KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NH/WESTERN MA AROUND
MIDDAY. THEN PUSHED THIS FRONT....AND THE CORRESPONDING INCREASED
RAINFALL CHANCES...EAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS TIMING MAY STILL BE TOO FAST.

WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING DRIER AIR TO SLOWLY ARRIVE DURING THE DAY ON
LIGHT WEST WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OUT OF THE APPALACHIANS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH A GENERAL
WEST WIND FLOW THROUGHOUT THE LAYER. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS LINGER
ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECTING DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUING
WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S...THOUGH AROUND 60 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE...RESULTING
AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS.  THIS SHOULD MEAN SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COASTS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOTS OF QUESTIONS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...
MAINLY DUE TO TIMING ISSUES OF A COLD FRONT. KEPT MENTION OF CHANCE
POPS AS A COLD FRONT TRIES TO CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
WEEKEND. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS FEATURE. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
EVENTUALLY RETURN LATER SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OVERNIGHT...AREAS OF IFR IN FOG AND STRATUS OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCE
FOR THIS WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS...AND ALONG
CAPE COD BAY. ALSO A GOOD CHANCE FOR IFR/LIFR IN THE CT RIVER
VALLEY.

TODAY...IFR CIGS MAY LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY. NORTH OF THERE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR. ANOTHER
DISTUBANCE PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND BUT MAY GENERATE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS CT/RI/SE MASS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. BRIEF
MVFR/IFR IN ANY TSTMS.

TONIGHT...EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS. BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN ANY STORMS. QUIET WEATHER THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR/LIFR IN STRATUS AND FOG. BEST CHANCE
WILL AGAIN BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE CT
RIVER VALLEY.

TUESDAY...MORNING FOG AND LOW CONDITIONS BURN OFF. VFR THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG RETURNS AFTER
05Z-06Z WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN NORMALLY PRONE INLAND LOCATIONS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS AND CIGS
IN LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS. MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR /SOUTHWEST NH
AND NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA/.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST AND WINDS ARE RESPONDING
BY DIMINISHING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS ENDED CLOSE TO SHORE BUT
WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY INTO MONDAY
EVENING. OTHERWISE...AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY REDUCE VSBYS LATER
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECTING WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MAY SEE SOME SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT TUE NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING TO W-NW AND
DIMINISHING BY WED MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...WTB/BELK
MARINE...BELK/KJC



000
FXUS61 KBOX 010604
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
204 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO
TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LESS HUMID
WEATHER WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS HAVE DIED DOWN. STILL A LOT OF MOISTURE IN THE AIR...AND
WITH LIGHT WIND THAT SHOULD ALLOW AREAS OF FOG TO FORM.

RADAR SHOWS TSTMS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY COAST MOVING EAST. THESE
SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS ROUGHLY 4-6 AM. LOW END CHANCE
THAT THESE COULD GRAZE THE ISLANDS...MOSTLY THEY SHOULDBE OFFSHORE
TO THE SOUTH.

WARM MUGGY AIR CONTINUES WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S. THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
GENERALLY 5 KNOTS OR LESS...SO EXPECT FOG AREAS TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO DEW POINT...IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
MONDAY...
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY/FRONT DRAPED ACROSS FAR N NEW ENG. PWATS DECREASE BELOW
1.5" ACROSS THE N BUT TROPICAL PLUME WITH PWATS NEAR 2" WILL
PERSIST IN THE SOUTH. AIRMASS DESTABILIZES AGAIN WITH SBCAPES
1000-1500 J/KG. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE IS PRESENT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET. 0-6KM SHEAR IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER SO SEVERE WX NOT
ANTICIPATED. HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE MAIN THREAT IN HIGH PWAT
AIRMASS. TEMPS WILL REACH LOW TO MID 80S AGAIN...COOLER S COAST.
DEWPOINTS 70+ SO VERY HUMID.

MONDAY NIGHT...
COLUMN MOISTURE GRADUALLY DECREASES THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME
LINGERING CONVECTION POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING ALONG THE S
COAST...OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER. AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG
WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER HUMID NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

BROAD RIDGING REMAINS THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE EASTERN USA
THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS MORE TYPICAL FOR THE
MIDDLE OF SUMMER RATHER THAN EARLY SEPTEMBER. EARLY IN THIS
PERIOD...THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN THE BROAD
NORTHERN STREAM THAT WILL AFFECT OUR REGION. THIS STRONG RIDGE
FINALLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED AROUND MID WEEK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
USA...WITH WARM BUT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS AS TO WHEN THE RIDGING MAY BREAK DOWN...AS MODEL
SOLUTIONS LATE IN THE RUN TRY TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE WHILE BRINGING
A MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO NORTHERN
QUEBEC.

OVERALL...HAVE FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE WITH MOST OF THIS FORECAST...
THOUGH SOME QUESTIONS WITH POSSIBLE CHANGES IN THE STEERING PATTERN
OVER THE NORTHERN TIER LATE THIS WEEK. HAVE LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO FRIDAY...THEN PUSHED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE
ECENS AND GEFS MEANS WHICH SHOWED A SLOWER BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGING
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF
THIS FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM STEADILY WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS OUT OF NY
STATE...THOUGH SOME TIMING ISSUES IN PLACE AMONGST THE OPERATIONAL
MODEL SUITE. KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NH/WESTERN MA AROUND
MIDDAY. THEN PUSHED THIS FRONT....AND THE CORRESPONDING INCREASED
RAINFALL CHANCES...EAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS TIMING MAY STILL BE TOO FAST.

WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING DRIER AIR TO SLOWLY ARRIVE DURING THE DAY ON
LIGHT WEST WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OUT OF THE APPALACHIANS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH A GENERAL
WEST WIND FLOW THROUGHOUT THE LAYER. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS LINGER
ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECTING DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUING
WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S...THOUGH AROUND 60 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE...RESULTING
AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS.  THIS SHOULD MEAN SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COASTS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOTS OF QUESTIONS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...
MAINLY DUE TO TIMING ISSUES OF A COLD FRONT. KEPT MENTION OF CHANCE
POPS AS A COLD FRONT TRIES TO CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
WEEKEND. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS FEATURE. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
EVENTUALLY RETURN LATER SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OVERNIGHT...AREAS OF IFR IN FOG AND STRATUS OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCE
FOR THIS WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS...AND ALONG
CAPE COD BAY. ALSO A GOOD CHANCE FOR IFR/LIFR IN THE CT RIVER
VALLEY.

TODAY...IFR CIGS MAY LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY. NORTH OF THERE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR. ANOTHER
DISTUBANCE PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND BUT MAY GENERATE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS CT/RI/SE MASS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. BRIEF
MVFR/IFR IN ANY TSTMS.

TONIGHT...EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS. BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN ANY STORMS. QUIET WEATHER THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR/LIFR IN STRATUS AND FOG. BEST CHANCE
WILL AGAIN BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE CT
RIVER VALLEY.

TUESDAY...MORNING FOG AND LOW CONDITIONS BURN OFF. VFR THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG RETURNS AFTER
05Z-06Z WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN NORMALLY PRONE INLAND LOCATIONS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS AND CIGS
IN LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS. MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR /SOUTHWEST NH
AND NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA/.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST AND WINDS ARE RESPONDING
BY DIMINISHING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS ENDED CLOSE TO SHORE BUT
WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY INTO MONDAY
EVENING. OTHERWISE...AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY REDUCE VSBYS LATER
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECTING WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MAY SEE SOME SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT TUE NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING TO W-NW AND
DIMINISHING BY WED MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...WTB/BELK
MARINE...BELK/KJC



000
FXUS61 KBOX 010212
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1012 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO
TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THEN WARM BUT
LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIED DOWN. MAY STILL BE SOME THUNDER ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST AS 40 DBZ ARE STILL REACHING UP TO THE -10C LEVEL.
PCPN SHOULD END ON THE RI COAST AROUND 11 PM AND ON THE
CAPE/ISLANDS BY 1 AM.

WARM MUGGY AIR CONTINUES WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S. THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
GENERALLY 5 KNOTS OR LESS...SO EXPECT FOG AREAS TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO DEW POINT...IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY/FRONT DRAPED ACROSS FAR N NEW ENG. PWATS DECREASE BELOW
1.5" ACROSS THE N BUT TROPICAL PLUME WITH PWATS NEAR 2" WILL
PERSIST IN THE SOUTH. AIRMASS DESTABILIZES AGAIN WITH SBCAPES
1000-1500 J/KG. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE IS PRESENT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET. 0-6KM SHEAR IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER SO SEVERE WX NOT
ANTICIPATED. HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE MAIN THREAT IN HIGH PWAT
AIRMASS. TEMPS WILL REACH LOW TO MID 80S AGAIN...COOLER S COAST.
DEWPOINTS 70+ SO VERY HUMID.

MONDAY NIGHT...
COLUMN MOISTURE GRADUALLY DECREASES THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME
LINGERING CONVECTION POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING ALONG THE S
COAST...OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER. AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG
WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER HUMID NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

BROAD RIDGING REMAINS THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE EASTERN USA
THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS MORE TYPICAL FOR THE
MIDDLE OF SUMMER RATHER THAN EARLY SEPTEMBER. EARLY IN THIS
PERIOD...THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN THE BROAD
NORTHERN STREAM THAT WILL AFFECT OUR REGION. THIS STRONG RIDGE
FINALLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED AROUND MID WEEK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
USA...WITH WARM BUT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS AS TO WHEN THE RIDGING MAY BREAK DOWN...AS MODEL
SOLUTIONS LATE IN THE RUN TRY TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE WHILE BRINGING
A MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO NORTHERN
QUEBEC.

OVERALL...HAVE FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE WITH MOST OF THIS FORECAST...
THOUGH SOME QUESTIONS WITH POSSIBLE CHANGES IN THE STEERING PATTERN
OVER THE NORTHERN TIER LATE THIS WEEK. HAVE LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO FRIDAY...THEN PUSHED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE
ECENS AND GEFS MEANS WHICH SHOWED A SLOWER BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGING
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF
THIS FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM STEADILY WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS OUT OF NY
STATE...THOUGH SOME TIMING ISSUES IN PLACE AMONGST THE OPERATIONAL
MODEL SUITE. KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NH/WESTERN MA AROUND
MIDDAY. THEN PUSHED THIS FRONT....AND THE CORRESPONDING INCREASED
RAINFALL CHANCES...EAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS TIMING MAY STILL BE TOO FAST.

WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING DRIER AIR TO SLOWLY ARRIVE DURING THE DAY ON
LIGHT WEST WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OUT OF THE APPALACHIANS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH A GENERAL
WEST WIND FLOW THROUGHOUT THE LAYER. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS LINGER
ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECTING DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUING
WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S...THOUGH AROUND 60 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE...RESULTING
AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS.  THIS SHOULD MEAN SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COASTS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOTS OF QUESTIONS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...
MAINLY DUE TO TIMING ISSUES OF A COLD FRONT. KEPT MENTION OF CHANCE
POPS AS A COLD FRONT TRIES TO CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
WEEKEND. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS FEATURE. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
EVENTUALLY RETURN LATER SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OVERNIGHT...AREAS OF IFR IN EASTERN MASS AND RI IN
SHOWERS/SCATTERED TSTMS WHILE SOUTHERN NH/WESTERN MASS/NORTHERN CT
HAVE LIFTED TO VFR. EXPECT THE EASTERN AREAS TO CLEAR OUT BY 1 AM.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW AND VERY HUMID AIR WILL MEAN A TREND FROM VFR
BACK TO IFR/LIFR IN AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
SOUTH COASTS OF RI AND MASS. COULD BE A SECONDARY FOCUS OF IFR IN
THE CT VALLEY.

MONDAY...MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY LINGER MOST OF THE DAY ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST...BUT IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE INTERIOR AND ESPECIALLY
FAR N AREAS AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE N. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY TSTMS.

MONDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF IFR STRATUS AND FOG EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
BUT UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL EXTENT. A FEW SHOWERS/TSTM MAY LINGER
INTO THE EVENING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR-IFR VSBYS THROUGH AROUND 14Z IN PATCHY FOG...THEN BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR. MAY SEE PERIODS OF MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
ESPECIALLY INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. PRECIP SHOULD
TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG RETURNS AFTER 05Z-06Z WITH
MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN NORMALLY PRONE INLAND LOCATIONS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS AND CIGS
IN LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS. MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR /SOUTHWEST NH
AND NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA/.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST AND WINDS ARE RESPONDING
BY DIMINISHING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS ENDED CLOSE TO SHORE BUT
WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY INTO MONDAY
EVENING. OTHERWISE...AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY REDUCE VSBYS LATER
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECTING WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MAY SEE SOME SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT TUE NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING TO W-NW AND
DIMINISHING BY WED MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/KJC/WTB
MARINE...BELK/KJC/WTB



000
FXUS61 KBOX 312339
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
739 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO
TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THEN WARM BUT
LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
730 PM UPDATE...

MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES CONTINUE TO PLUMMET THIS EVENING...
HAVING DIMINISHED 400-600 J/KG WITHIN THE PAST 3 HOURS. WITH
VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG STILL...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DESPITE THE
RELATIVELY LOW INSTABILITY...THERE IS DECENT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
OF 30-40 KT TO MAXIMIZE IT. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING. RATHER THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THOSE WITH PLANS
OUTDOORS THIS EVENING SHOULD GO INSIDE IMMEDIATELY IF
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH YOUR PARTICULAR REGION. REMEMBER...IF YOU
CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE IN THE POTENTIAL LIGHTNING STRIKE ZONE.

OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED TO THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING. 31/20Z HRRR APPEARED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE TIMING
FOR CONVECTION...SO LEANED HEAVILY UPON IT FOR NEAR TERM RAINFALL
CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS EASTERN PA AND NJ AND SE NY IN AXIS OF
SBCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG. CLOSER TO HOME...SBCAPES 500-1000 J/KG BUT
THERE ARE BREAKS DEVELOPING IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS SNE SO FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY. HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TO A
LATE SHOW WITH CONVECTION 21-00Z AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST. PWATS ALREADY NEAR 2" AND EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND
2.25" TOWARD 00Z SO HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING OF
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS THE PRIMARY THREAT. 0-6KM SHEAR
APPROACHING 40 KT IN THE WEST SO POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW STRONG
TO PERHAPS SEVERE TSTMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALSO A CONCERN IF
FURTHER DESTABILIZATION OCCURS.

MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY BE IN THE INTERIOR...BUT
EXPECT AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS IN A WEAKENED STATE TO MAKE
IT TO THE COASTAL PLAIN LATER THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH. WHILE INSTABILITY WANES TONIGHT...THERE IS STILL
SOME SBCAPE AND HIGH KI VALUES TO SUPPORT CONVECTION. THE COLUMN
WILL WILL BEGIN TO DRY FROM THE N LATE TONIGHT ACROSS N ZONES.
AREAS OF STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. IT
WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH MINS 65 TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY/FRONT DRAPED ACROSS FAR N NEW ENG. PWATS DECREASE BELOW
1.5" ACROSS THE N BUT TROPICAL PLUME WITH PWATS NEAR 2" WILL
PERSIST IN THE SOUTH. AIRMASS DESTABILIZES AGAIN WITH SBCAPES
1000-1500 J/KG. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE IS PRESENT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET. 0-6KM SHEAR IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER SO SEVERE WX NOT
ANTICIPATED. HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE MAIN THREAT IN HIGH PWAT
AIRMASS. TEMPS WILL REACH LOW TO MID 80S AGAIN...COOLER S COAST.
DEWPOINTS 70+ SO VERY HUMID.

MONDAY NIGHT...
COLUMN MOISTURE GRADUALLY DECREASES THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME
LINGERING CONVECTION POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING ALONG THE S
COAST...OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER. AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG
WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER HUMID NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

BROAD RIDGING REMAINS THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE EASTERN USA
THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS MORE TYPICAL FOR THE
MIDDLE OF SUMMER RATHER THAN EARLY SEPTEMBER. EARLY IN THIS
PERIOD...THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN THE BROAD
NORTHERN STREAM THAT WILL AFFECT OUR REGION. THIS STRONG RIDGE
FINALLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED AROUND MID WEEK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
USA...WITH WARM BUT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS AS TO WHEN THE RIDGING MAY BREAK DOWN...AS MODEL
SOLUTIONS LATE IN THE RUN TRY TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE WHILE BRINGING
A MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO NORTHERN
QUEBEC.

OVERALL...HAVE FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE WITH MOST OF THIS FORECAST...
THOUGH SOME QUESTIONS WITH POSSIBLE CHANGES IN THE STEERING PATTERN
OVER THE NORTHERN TIER LATE THIS WEEK. HAVE LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO FRIDAY...THEN PUSHED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE
ECENS AND GEFS MEANS WHICH SHOWED A SLOWER BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGING
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF
THIS FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM STEADILY WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS OUT OF NY
STATE...THOUGH SOME TIMING ISSUES IN PLACE AMONGST THE OPERATIONAL
MODEL SUITE. KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NH/WESTERN MA AROUND
MIDDAY. THEN PUSHED THIS FRONT....AND THE CORRESPONDING INCREASED
RAINFALL CHANCES...EAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS TIMING MAY STILL BE TOO FAST.

WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING DRIER AIR TO SLOWLY ARRIVE DURING THE DAY ON
LIGHT WEST WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OUT OF THE APPALACHIANS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH A GENERAL
WEST WIND FLOW THROUGHOUT THE LAYER. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS LINGER
ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECTING DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUING
WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S...THOUGH AROUND 60 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE...RESULTING
AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS.  THIS SHOULD MEAN SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COASTS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOTS OF QUESTIONS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...
MAINLY DUE TO TIMING ISSUES OF A COLD FRONT. KEPT MENTION OF CHANCE
POPS AS A COLD FRONT TRIES TO CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
WEEKEND. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS FEATURE. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
EVENTUALLY RETURN LATER SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

TONIGHT...CONVECTION MAY LINGER TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN BEFORE DIMINISHING. AREAS OF STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND ACROSS THIS REGION...BUT HIGHEST
PROBABILITY NEAR THE S COAST. EXACT TIMING UNCERTAIN FARTHER
INLAND...BUT SEVERAL SITES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST ALREADY
SOCKED IN.

MONDAY...MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY LINGER MOST OF THE DAY ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST...BUT IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE INTERIOR AND ESPECIALLY
FAR N AREAS AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE N. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY TSTMS.

MONDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF IFR STRATUS AND FOG EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
BUT UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL EXTENT. A FEW SHOWERS/TSTM MAY LINGER
INTO THE EVENING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR-IFR VSBYS THROUGH AROUND 14Z IN PATCHY FOG...THEN BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR. MAY SEE PERIODS OF MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
ESPECIALLY INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. PRECIP SHOULD
TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG RETURNS AFTER 05Z-06Z WITH
MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN NORMALLY PRONE INLAND LOCATIONS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS AND CIGS
IN LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS. MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR /SOUTHWEST NH
AND NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA/.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

MODEST LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP TO SUPPORT SOME SW GUSTS TO 25 KT
INTO THE EVENING ALONG THE SOUTH COASTAL NEARSHORE WATERS SO SCA
WILL CONTINUE. OVER THE OUTER WATERS...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA BUT BUILDING SEAS TO NEAR 5 FT SO SCA HERE AS WELL.

THE LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASING
WINDS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY INTO MONDAY
EVENING. OTHERWISE...AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY REDUCE VSBYS LATER
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECTING WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MAY SEE SOME SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT TUE NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING TO W-NW AND
DIMINISHING BY WED MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...BELK/KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/KJC
MARINE...BELK/KJC



000
FXUS61 KBOX 312339
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
739 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO
TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THEN WARM BUT
LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
730 PM UPDATE...

MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES CONTINUE TO PLUMMET THIS EVENING...
HAVING DIMINISHED 400-600 J/KG WITHIN THE PAST 3 HOURS. WITH
VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG STILL...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DESPITE THE
RELATIVELY LOW INSTABILITY...THERE IS DECENT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
OF 30-40 KT TO MAXIMIZE IT. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING. RATHER THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THOSE WITH PLANS
OUTDOORS THIS EVENING SHOULD GO INSIDE IMMEDIATELY IF
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH YOUR PARTICULAR REGION. REMEMBER...IF YOU
CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE IN THE POTENTIAL LIGHTNING STRIKE ZONE.

OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED TO THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING. 31/20Z HRRR APPEARED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE TIMING
FOR CONVECTION...SO LEANED HEAVILY UPON IT FOR NEAR TERM RAINFALL
CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS EASTERN PA AND NJ AND SE NY IN AXIS OF
SBCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG. CLOSER TO HOME...SBCAPES 500-1000 J/KG BUT
THERE ARE BREAKS DEVELOPING IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS SNE SO FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY. HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TO A
LATE SHOW WITH CONVECTION 21-00Z AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST. PWATS ALREADY NEAR 2" AND EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND
2.25" TOWARD 00Z SO HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING OF
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS THE PRIMARY THREAT. 0-6KM SHEAR
APPROACHING 40 KT IN THE WEST SO POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW STRONG
TO PERHAPS SEVERE TSTMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALSO A CONCERN IF
FURTHER DESTABILIZATION OCCURS.

MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY BE IN THE INTERIOR...BUT
EXPECT AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS IN A WEAKENED STATE TO MAKE
IT TO THE COASTAL PLAIN LATER THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH. WHILE INSTABILITY WANES TONIGHT...THERE IS STILL
SOME SBCAPE AND HIGH KI VALUES TO SUPPORT CONVECTION. THE COLUMN
WILL WILL BEGIN TO DRY FROM THE N LATE TONIGHT ACROSS N ZONES.
AREAS OF STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. IT
WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH MINS 65 TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY/FRONT DRAPED ACROSS FAR N NEW ENG. PWATS DECREASE BELOW
1.5" ACROSS THE N BUT TROPICAL PLUME WITH PWATS NEAR 2" WILL
PERSIST IN THE SOUTH. AIRMASS DESTABILIZES AGAIN WITH SBCAPES
1000-1500 J/KG. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE IS PRESENT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET. 0-6KM SHEAR IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER SO SEVERE WX NOT
ANTICIPATED. HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE MAIN THREAT IN HIGH PWAT
AIRMASS. TEMPS WILL REACH LOW TO MID 80S AGAIN...COOLER S COAST.
DEWPOINTS 70+ SO VERY HUMID.

MONDAY NIGHT...
COLUMN MOISTURE GRADUALLY DECREASES THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME
LINGERING CONVECTION POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING ALONG THE S
COAST...OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER. AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG
WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER HUMID NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

BROAD RIDGING REMAINS THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE EASTERN USA
THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS MORE TYPICAL FOR THE
MIDDLE OF SUMMER RATHER THAN EARLY SEPTEMBER. EARLY IN THIS
PERIOD...THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN THE BROAD
NORTHERN STREAM THAT WILL AFFECT OUR REGION. THIS STRONG RIDGE
FINALLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED AROUND MID WEEK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
USA...WITH WARM BUT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS AS TO WHEN THE RIDGING MAY BREAK DOWN...AS MODEL
SOLUTIONS LATE IN THE RUN TRY TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE WHILE BRINGING
A MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO NORTHERN
QUEBEC.

OVERALL...HAVE FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE WITH MOST OF THIS FORECAST...
THOUGH SOME QUESTIONS WITH POSSIBLE CHANGES IN THE STEERING PATTERN
OVER THE NORTHERN TIER LATE THIS WEEK. HAVE LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO FRIDAY...THEN PUSHED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE
ECENS AND GEFS MEANS WHICH SHOWED A SLOWER BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGING
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF
THIS FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM STEADILY WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS OUT OF NY
STATE...THOUGH SOME TIMING ISSUES IN PLACE AMONGST THE OPERATIONAL
MODEL SUITE. KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NH/WESTERN MA AROUND
MIDDAY. THEN PUSHED THIS FRONT....AND THE CORRESPONDING INCREASED
RAINFALL CHANCES...EAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS TIMING MAY STILL BE TOO FAST.

WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING DRIER AIR TO SLOWLY ARRIVE DURING THE DAY ON
LIGHT WEST WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OUT OF THE APPALACHIANS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH A GENERAL
WEST WIND FLOW THROUGHOUT THE LAYER. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS LINGER
ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECTING DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUING
WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S...THOUGH AROUND 60 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE...RESULTING
AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS.  THIS SHOULD MEAN SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COASTS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOTS OF QUESTIONS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...
MAINLY DUE TO TIMING ISSUES OF A COLD FRONT. KEPT MENTION OF CHANCE
POPS AS A COLD FRONT TRIES TO CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
WEEKEND. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS FEATURE. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
EVENTUALLY RETURN LATER SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

TONIGHT...CONVECTION MAY LINGER TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN BEFORE DIMINISHING. AREAS OF STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND ACROSS THIS REGION...BUT HIGHEST
PROBABILITY NEAR THE S COAST. EXACT TIMING UNCERTAIN FARTHER
INLAND...BUT SEVERAL SITES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST ALREADY
SOCKED IN.

MONDAY...MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY LINGER MOST OF THE DAY ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST...BUT IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE INTERIOR AND ESPECIALLY
FAR N AREAS AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE N. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY TSTMS.

MONDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF IFR STRATUS AND FOG EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
BUT UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL EXTENT. A FEW SHOWERS/TSTM MAY LINGER
INTO THE EVENING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR-IFR VSBYS THROUGH AROUND 14Z IN PATCHY FOG...THEN BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR. MAY SEE PERIODS OF MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
ESPECIALLY INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. PRECIP SHOULD
TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG RETURNS AFTER 05Z-06Z WITH
MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN NORMALLY PRONE INLAND LOCATIONS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS AND CIGS
IN LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS. MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR /SOUTHWEST NH
AND NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA/.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

MODEST LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP TO SUPPORT SOME SW GUSTS TO 25 KT
INTO THE EVENING ALONG THE SOUTH COASTAL NEARSHORE WATERS SO SCA
WILL CONTINUE. OVER THE OUTER WATERS...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA BUT BUILDING SEAS TO NEAR 5 FT SO SCA HERE AS WELL.

THE LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASING
WINDS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY INTO MONDAY
EVENING. OTHERWISE...AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY REDUCE VSBYS LATER
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECTING WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MAY SEE SOME SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT TUE NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING TO W-NW AND
DIMINISHING BY WED MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...BELK/KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/KJC
MARINE...BELK/KJC




000
FXUS61 KBOX 311957
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
357 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO
TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THEN WARM BUT
LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS EASTERN PA AND NJ AND SE NY IN AXIS OF
SBCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG. CLOSER TO HOME...SBCAPES 500-1000 J/KG BUT
THERE ARE BREAKS DEVELOPING IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS SNE SO FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY. HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TO A
LATE SHOW WITH CONVECTION 21-00Z AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST. PWATS ALREADY NEAR 2" AND EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND
2.25" TOWARD 00Z SO HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING OF
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS THE PRIMARY THREAT. 0-6KM SHEAR
APPROACHING 40 KT IN THE WEST SO POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW STRONG
TO PERHAPS SEVERE TSTMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALSO A CONCERN IF
FURTHER DESTABILIZATION OCCURS.

MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY BE IN THE INTERIOR...BUT
EXPECT AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS IN A WEAKENED STATE TO MAKE
IT TO THE COASTAL PLAIN LATER THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH. WHILE INSTABILITY WANES TONIGHT...THERE IS STILL
SOME SBCAPE AND HIGH KI VALUES TO SUPPORT CONVECTION. THE COLUMN
WILL WILL BEGIN TO DRY FROM THE N LATE TONIGHT ACROSS N ZONES.
AREAS OF STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. IT
WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH MINS 65 TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY/FRONT DRAPED ACROSS FAR N NEW ENG. PWATS DECREASE BELOW
1.5" ACROSS THE N BUT TROPICAL PLUME WITH PWATS NEAR 2" WILL
PERSIST IN THE SOUTH. AIRMASS DESTABILIZES AGAIN WITH SBCAPES
1000-1500 J/KG. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE IS PRESENT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET. 0-6KM SHEAR IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER SO SEVERE WX NOT
ANTICIPATED. HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE MAIN THREAT IN HIGH PWAT
AIRMASS. TEMPS WILL REACH LOW TO MID 80S AGAIN...COOLER S COAST.
DEWPOINTS 70+ SO VERY HUMID.

MONDAY NIGHT...
COLUMN MOISTURE GRADUALLY DECREASES THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME
LINGERING CONVECTION POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING ALONG THE S
COAST...OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER. AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG
WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER HUMID NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

BROAD RIDGING REMAINS THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE EASTERN USA
THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS MORE TYPICAL FOR THE
MIDDLE OF SUMMER RATHER THAN EARLY SEPTEMBER. EARLY IN THIS
PERIOD...THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN THE BROAD
NORTHERN STREAM THAT WILL AFFECT OUR REGION. THIS STRONG RIDGE
FINALLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED AROUND MID WEEK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
USA...WITH WARM BUT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS AS TO WHEN THE RIDGING MAY BREAK DOWN...AS MODEL
SOLUTIONS LATE IN THE RUN TRY TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE WHILE BRINGING
A MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO NORTHERN
QUEBEC.

OVERALL...HAVE FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE WITH MOST OF THIS FORECAST...
THOUGH SOME QUESTIONS WITH POSSIBLE CHANGES IN THE STEERING PATTERN
OVER THE NORTHERN TIER LATE THIS WEEK. HAVE LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO FRIDAY...THEN PUSHED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE
ECENS AND GEFS MEANS WHICH SHOWED A SLOWER BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGING
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF
THIS FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM STEADILY WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS OUT OF NY
STATE...THOUGH SOME TIMING ISSUES IN PLACE AMONGST THE OPERATIONAL
MODEL SUITE. KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NH/WESTERN MA AROUND
MIDDAY. THEN PUSHED THIS FRONT....AND THE CORRESPONDING INCREASED
RAINFALL CHANCES...EAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS TIMING MAY STILL BE TOO FAST.

WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING DRIER AIR TO SLOWLY ARRIVE DURING THE DAY ON
LIGHT WEST WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OUT OF THE APPALACHIANS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH A GENERAL
WEST WIND FLOW THROUGHOUT THE LAYER. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS LINGER
ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECTING DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUING
WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S...THOUGH AROUND 60 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE...RESULTING
AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS.  THIS SHOULD MEAN SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COASTS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOTS OF QUESTIONS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...
MAINLY DUE TO TIMING ISSUES OF A COLD FRONT. KEPT MENTION OF CHANCE
POPS AS A COLD FRONT TRIES TO CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
WEEKEND. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS FEATURE. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
EVENTUALLY RETURN LATER SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

THROUGH THIS EVENING...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER THIS
AFTERNOON. SW GUSTS TO 25 KT ALONG THE COAST. SCT TSTMS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP 20-00Z ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WIND.

TONIGHT...CONVECTION MAY LINGER TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN BEFORE DIMINISHING. AREAS OF STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION...BUT HIGHEST
PROBABILITY NEAR THE S COAST. EXACT TIMING UNCERTAIN.

MONDAY...MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY LINGER MOST OF THE DAY ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST...BUT IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE INTERIOR AND ESPECIALLY
FAR N AREAS AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE N. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY TSTMS.

MONDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF IFR STRATUS AND FOG EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
BUT UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL EXTENT. A FEW SHOWERS/TSTM MAY LINGER
INTO THE EVENING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR-IFR VSBYS THROUGH AROUND 14Z IN PATCHY FOG...THEN BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR. MAY SEE PERIODS OF MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
ESPECIALLY INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. PRECIP SHOULD
TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG RETURNS AFTER 05Z-06Z WITH
MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN NORMALLY PRONE INLAND LOCATIONS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS AND CIGS
IN LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS. MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR /SOUTHWEST NH
AND NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA/.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

MODEST LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP TO SUPPORT SOME SW GUSTS TO 25 KT
INTO THE EVENING ALONG THE SOUTH COASTAL NEARSHORE WATERS SO SCA
WILL CONTINUE. OVER THE OUTER WATERS...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA BUT BUILDING SEAS TO NEAR 5 FT SO SCA HERE AS WELL.

THE LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASING
WINDS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY INTO MONDAY
EVENING. OTHERWISE...AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY REDUCE VSBYS LATER
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECTING WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MAY SEE SOME SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT TUE NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING TO W-NW AND
DIMINISHING BY WED MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...KJC/BELK
MARINE...KJC/BELK



000
FXUS61 KBOX 311957
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
357 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO
TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THEN WARM BUT
LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS EASTERN PA AND NJ AND SE NY IN AXIS OF
SBCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG. CLOSER TO HOME...SBCAPES 500-1000 J/KG BUT
THERE ARE BREAKS DEVELOPING IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS SNE SO FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY. HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TO A
LATE SHOW WITH CONVECTION 21-00Z AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST. PWATS ALREADY NEAR 2" AND EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND
2.25" TOWARD 00Z SO HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING OF
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS THE PRIMARY THREAT. 0-6KM SHEAR
APPROACHING 40 KT IN THE WEST SO POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW STRONG
TO PERHAPS SEVERE TSTMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALSO A CONCERN IF
FURTHER DESTABILIZATION OCCURS.

MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY BE IN THE INTERIOR...BUT
EXPECT AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS IN A WEAKENED STATE TO MAKE
IT TO THE COASTAL PLAIN LATER THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH. WHILE INSTABILITY WANES TONIGHT...THERE IS STILL
SOME SBCAPE AND HIGH KI VALUES TO SUPPORT CONVECTION. THE COLUMN
WILL WILL BEGIN TO DRY FROM THE N LATE TONIGHT ACROSS N ZONES.
AREAS OF STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. IT
WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH MINS 65 TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY/FRONT DRAPED ACROSS FAR N NEW ENG. PWATS DECREASE BELOW
1.5" ACROSS THE N BUT TROPICAL PLUME WITH PWATS NEAR 2" WILL
PERSIST IN THE SOUTH. AIRMASS DESTABILIZES AGAIN WITH SBCAPES
1000-1500 J/KG. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE IS PRESENT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET. 0-6KM SHEAR IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER SO SEVERE WX NOT
ANTICIPATED. HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE MAIN THREAT IN HIGH PWAT
AIRMASS. TEMPS WILL REACH LOW TO MID 80S AGAIN...COOLER S COAST.
DEWPOINTS 70+ SO VERY HUMID.

MONDAY NIGHT...
COLUMN MOISTURE GRADUALLY DECREASES THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME
LINGERING CONVECTION POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING ALONG THE S
COAST...OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER. AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG
WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER HUMID NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

BROAD RIDGING REMAINS THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE EASTERN USA
THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS MORE TYPICAL FOR THE
MIDDLE OF SUMMER RATHER THAN EARLY SEPTEMBER. EARLY IN THIS
PERIOD...THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN THE BROAD
NORTHERN STREAM THAT WILL AFFECT OUR REGION. THIS STRONG RIDGE
FINALLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED AROUND MID WEEK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
USA...WITH WARM BUT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS AS TO WHEN THE RIDGING MAY BREAK DOWN...AS MODEL
SOLUTIONS LATE IN THE RUN TRY TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE WHILE BRINGING
A MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO NORTHERN
QUEBEC.

OVERALL...HAVE FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE WITH MOST OF THIS FORECAST...
THOUGH SOME QUESTIONS WITH POSSIBLE CHANGES IN THE STEERING PATTERN
OVER THE NORTHERN TIER LATE THIS WEEK. HAVE LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO FRIDAY...THEN PUSHED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE
ECENS AND GEFS MEANS WHICH SHOWED A SLOWER BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGING
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF
THIS FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM STEADILY WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS OUT OF NY
STATE...THOUGH SOME TIMING ISSUES IN PLACE AMONGST THE OPERATIONAL
MODEL SUITE. KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NH/WESTERN MA AROUND
MIDDAY. THEN PUSHED THIS FRONT....AND THE CORRESPONDING INCREASED
RAINFALL CHANCES...EAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS TIMING MAY STILL BE TOO FAST.

WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING DRIER AIR TO SLOWLY ARRIVE DURING THE DAY ON
LIGHT WEST WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OUT OF THE APPALACHIANS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH A GENERAL
WEST WIND FLOW THROUGHOUT THE LAYER. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS LINGER
ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECTING DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUING
WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S...THOUGH AROUND 60 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE...RESULTING
AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS.  THIS SHOULD MEAN SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COASTS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOTS OF QUESTIONS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...
MAINLY DUE TO TIMING ISSUES OF A COLD FRONT. KEPT MENTION OF CHANCE
POPS AS A COLD FRONT TRIES TO CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
WEEKEND. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS FEATURE. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
EVENTUALLY RETURN LATER SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

THROUGH THIS EVENING...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER THIS
AFTERNOON. SW GUSTS TO 25 KT ALONG THE COAST. SCT TSTMS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP 20-00Z ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WIND.

TONIGHT...CONVECTION MAY LINGER TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN BEFORE DIMINISHING. AREAS OF STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION...BUT HIGHEST
PROBABILITY NEAR THE S COAST. EXACT TIMING UNCERTAIN.

MONDAY...MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY LINGER MOST OF THE DAY ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST...BUT IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE INTERIOR AND ESPECIALLY
FAR N AREAS AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE N. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY TSTMS.

MONDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF IFR STRATUS AND FOG EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
BUT UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL EXTENT. A FEW SHOWERS/TSTM MAY LINGER
INTO THE EVENING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR-IFR VSBYS THROUGH AROUND 14Z IN PATCHY FOG...THEN BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR. MAY SEE PERIODS OF MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
ESPECIALLY INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. PRECIP SHOULD
TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG RETURNS AFTER 05Z-06Z WITH
MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN NORMALLY PRONE INLAND LOCATIONS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS AND CIGS
IN LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS. MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR /SOUTHWEST NH
AND NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA/.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

MODEST LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP TO SUPPORT SOME SW GUSTS TO 25 KT
INTO THE EVENING ALONG THE SOUTH COASTAL NEARSHORE WATERS SO SCA
WILL CONTINUE. OVER THE OUTER WATERS...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA BUT BUILDING SEAS TO NEAR 5 FT SO SCA HERE AS WELL.

THE LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASING
WINDS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY INTO MONDAY
EVENING. OTHERWISE...AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY REDUCE VSBYS LATER
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECTING WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MAY SEE SOME SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT TUE NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING TO W-NW AND
DIMINISHING BY WED MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...KJC/BELK
MARINE...KJC/BELK




000
FXUS61 KBOX 311759
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
159 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM HUMID FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. A UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
FROM THE GREAT LAKES DIVES EAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WINDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER
INTO MONDAY EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTH
OF THE MASS PIKE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM BUT LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL THEN FOLLOW
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
150 PM UPDATE...
LOWER CLOUDS ARE HANGING TOUGH ACROSS SNE WHICH HAS KEPT
INSTABILITY IN CHECK SO FAR. TEMPS UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
SBCAPES 500-1000 J/KG. 0-6KM SHEAR 35-40 KT. THERE ARE SOME THIN
SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS SO STILL EXPECT PARTIAL SUNSHINE AT TIMES
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH MID 80S IN A FEW SPOTS. EXPECTED
SBCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 SHOULD ALLOW SCT
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP MID/LATE AFTERNOON IN THE INTERIOR. HI-RES
GUIDANCE HINTING AT LATE SHOW WITH CONVECTION FIRING 21-00Z AS MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. DELAYED HIGHER POPS BY A
FEW HOURS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOTS OF LOWER CLOUDS HAVE MOVED IN/DEVELOPED ACROSS SNE THIS
MORNING. PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS NY/PA BUT THERE ARE SOME BREAKS
MOVING INTO SNE. ALSO SOME CLEARING ACROSS COASTAL NJ AND S OF
LONG ISLAND WHICH MAY BRING SOME BREAKS OF SUN TO THE REGION. THE
SKY COVER WILL BE AN IMPORTANT FACTOR IN HOW MUCH INSTABILITY IS
REALIZED THIS AFTERNOON.

TROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH PWATS
AROUND 2.25" BY 00Z. THIS IS 2-3 SD ABOVE NORMAL AND SFC DEWPOINTS
WILL BE REACHING 70 MAKING FOR A VERY HUMID DAY. 850 TEMPS AROUND
17C BUT CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT FULL HEATING POTENTIAL SO EXPECT
MAXES REACHING THE LOW TO MID 80S...COOLER SOUTH COAST. THIS WILL
BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SBCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG...BUT LESS
INSTABILITY IF NO SUNSHINE.

INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON. HI-RES GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO WITH
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE INTERIOR LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AROUND
00Z. 0-6KM SHEAR INCREASES TO 35-40 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SO POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND SEVERE WEATHER
IF CAPES CAN EXCEED 1000 J/KG. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE QUITE
MEAGER AROUND 5 C/KM WHICH IS A LIMITING FACTOR...BUT ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND DEEP MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS.

MAIN THREAT IS HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING OF URBAN
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS GIVEN ANOMALOUS PWAT PLUME...BUT STRONG TO
DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE IF INSTABILITY IS REALIZED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...
CONVECTION LINGERS INTO AT LEAST THE START OF THE NIGHT. SIGNS IN
THE MODEL DATA THAT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY LINGER OVER SOUTHEAST
MASS/RI/CT LATER AT NIGHT. THIS MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUING OVERNIGHT IN THIS AREA. NO
AIRMASS CHANGE SO IT SHOULD BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH
DEWPOINTS AROUND 70...AND SO MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND 70 OR IN
THE LOWER 70S.

MONDAY...
WARM HUMID AIRMASS LINGERS OVER THE REGION. PRECIP WATER VALUES
CONTINUE ABOVE 2 INCHES SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND 1.5 TO 2.0
INCHES NORTH. DYNAMICS WILL BE DIMINISHING...BUT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER JET FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY. WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS...AND WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
BROAD RIDGING IS THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...MORE TYPICAL FOR THE
MIDDLE OF SUMMER RATHER THAN EARLY SEPTEMBER. HOWEVER...EARLY IN
THIS PERIOD...THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN THE
BROAD NORTHERN STREAM FLOW THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION. THE RIDGE
FINALLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED AROUND MID WEEK...WITH WARM BUT DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SOME QUESTIONS AS TO WHEN
THE RIDGING MAY BREAK DOWN...AS MODEL SOLUTIONS LATE IN THE RUN
TRY TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE WHILE BRINGING DOWN A H5 CUTOFF LOW
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC. A LOT OF
SOLUTION DIVERGENCE DURING THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST...HOWEVER.

OVERALL...HAVE FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST...
THOUGH SOME QUESTION AS TO TIMING THE FRONT OFF THE COAST EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE H5 PATTERN MAY BRIEFLY HANG UP...THEN MORE
QUESTIONS WITH THE POSSIBLE CHANGES IN THE STEERING PATTERN OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER LATE IN THE CYCLE.

HAVE LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO FRIDAY...THEN
PUSHED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE ECENS AND GEFS MEANS WHICH SHOWED A
SLOWER BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THE FRIDAY-SATURDAY TIMEFRAME.

DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT...
H5 SHORT WAVE HANGS UP A BIT ALONG THE S COAST EARLY MON NIGHT
WHICH WILL KEEP CHANCE FOR SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. FAIR AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY MOVE ALONG WITH THIS
FRONT...WITH K INDICES IN THE LOWER-MID 30S AND TOTAL TOTALS
APPROACHING 50. WILL REMAIN RATHER HUMID AND...WITH ANY LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL...WILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG REDEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WILL REMAIN STICKY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 65 TO 70
DEGREE RANGE.

TUESDAY...
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM STEADILY WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS OUT OF NY
STATE DURING TUESDAY...THOUGH SOME TIMING ISSUES IN PLACE AMONGST
THE OPERATIONAL MODEL SUITE. FOR NOW...DID INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS SW NH/W MA AROUND MIDDAY /THOUGH THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO
FAST/...THEN PUSHES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR DURING
THE AFTERNOON. MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL EVENING /IF THEN/ FOR COASTAL
AREAS. LOOKS LIKE MOST ENERGY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS
THE H5 HEIGHTS LIFT BACK INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN
QUEBEC TUE NIGHT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO CLEAR THE COAST LATE TUE
NIGHT WITH ANY LEFTOVER PRECIP ENDING.

WEDNESDAY...
EXPECT DRIER AIR TO SLOWLY WORK ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY
ON LIGHT W WINDS. HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD OUT OF THE
APPALACHIANS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM WITH A GENERAL W WIND FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE LAYER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER-MID 80S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
EXPECT DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUING WITH DEWPTS DOWN TO THE
50S...THOUGH AROUND 60 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S BOTH DAYS. A DRY FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH
EARLY FRI WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT.

SATURDAY...
LOTS OF QUESTIONS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS A COLD FRONT TRIES TO
WORK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...MAINLY DUE TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
THAT MAY TRY TO CHANGE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CANADA. TIMING IS VERY
MUCH IN QUESTION...THOUGH FOR NOW HAVE MENTIONED CHANCE POPS AS
THE FRONT MAY TRY TO WORK IN. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

THROUGH THIS EVENING...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER THIS
AFTERNOON. SW GUSTS TO 25 KT ALONG THE COAST. SCT TSTMS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP 20-00Z ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WIND.

TONIGHT...CONVECTION MAY LINGER TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN BEFORE DIMINISHING. AREAS OF STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION...BUT HIGHEST
PROBABILITY NEAR THE S COAST. EXACT TIMING UNCERTAIN.

MONDAY...MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY LINGER MOST OF THE DAY ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST...BUT IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE INTERIOR AND ESPECIALLY
FAR N AREAS AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE N. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY TSTMS.

MONDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF IFR STRATUS AND FOG EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
BUT UNCERTAINTY ON AREAL EXTENT. A FEW SHOWERS/TSTM MAY LINGER
INTO THE EVENING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR-IFR VSBYS THROUGH AROUND 14Z IN PATCHY FOG...THEN BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR. MAY SEE PERIODS OF MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
ESPECIALLY INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. PRECIP SHOULD
TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG RETURNS AFTER 05Z-06Z WITH
MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN NORMALLY PRONE INLAND LOCATIONS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOCAL
MVFR- IFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG THROUGH 14Z WED. MAY AGAIN SEE LOCAL
MVFR- IFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG AROUND DAYBREAK THU OVER THE FAR
INTERIOR /SW NH AND N CENTRAL-W MA/.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

1030 AM UPDATE...
WE EXPANDED SCA FOR SOUTH COASTAL NEARSHORE WATERS FOR
EXPECTATION OF SOME G25 KT AFT 18Z INTO THIS EVENING AS MODEST LLJ
DEVELOPS.

TODAY...
DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AFTER
4 PM...EXCEPT AFTER 2 PM NORTH OF CAPE ANN. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE
STRONG WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS POOR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
SOUTHWEST WIND WILL GUST TO 20-22 KNOTS WHICH IS CLOSE TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE WIND WILL BUILD SEAS A TAD
WITH 5 FOOT HEIGHTS MOVING INTO THE OUTER WATERS LATE IN THE DAY.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN PUT IN EFFECT ON THE OUTER WATERS
STARTING THIS EVENING. IT IS MAINLY FOR THE 5 FOOT SEAS...BUT
WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO THRESHOLD AND SO WE WILL KEEP THE HEADLINE
NON-SPECIFIC.

TONIGHT...
THE POTENTIAL FOR 5 FOOT SEAS WILL EXTEND INTO RI SOUND ON THE
SOUTHWEST WIND. GAVE SOME THOUGHT ABOUT SIMILAR POTENTIALS FOR
BLOCK ISLAND SOUND AND BUZZARDS BAY...BUT PREFERRED THE BETTER
FETCH INTO RI SOUND WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN
EFFECT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS. BEST CHANCE
ON TIMING OF THE STORMS WOULD BE THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...BUT
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ANY STORMS
WOULD HAVE STRONG WIND GUSTS EARLY TONIGHT AND POOR VISIBILITY IN
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AT ANY TIME.

MONDAY...
WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. SMALL CRAFTS
WILL LINGER OVER THE OUTER WATERS DURING THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW WINDS DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHT. LEFTOVER 5 FT SEAS MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE FAR OUTER WATERS S AND E OF NANTUCKET EARLY MON
NIGHT...THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. MAY SEE SOME SW
WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT TUE NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO W-NW AND
DIMINISHING BY WED MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...WTB/KJC/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 311432
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1032 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM HUMID FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. A UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
FROM THE GREAT LAKES DIVES EAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WINDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER
INTO MONDAY EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTH
OF THE MASS PIKE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM BUT LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL THEN FOLLOW
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM UPDATE...
LOTS OF LOWER CLOUDS HAVE MOVED IN/DEVELOPED ACROSS SNE THIS
MORNING. PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS NY/PA BUT THERE ARE SOME BREAKS
MOVING INTO SNE. ALSO SOME CLEARING ACROSS COASTAL NJ AND S OF
LONG ISLAND WHICH MAY BRING SOME BREAKS OF SUN TO THE REGION. THE
SKY COVER WILL BE AN IMPORTANT FACTOR IN HOW MUCH INSTABILITY IS
REALIZED THIS AFTERNOON.

TROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH PWATS
AROUND 2.25" BY 00Z. THIS IS 2-3 SD ABOVE NORMAL AND SFC DEWPOINTS
WILL BE REACHING 70 MAKING FOR A VERY HUMID DAY. 850 TEMPS AROUND
17C BUT CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT FULL HEATING POTENTIAL SO EXPECT
MAXES REACHING THE LOW TO MID 80S...COOLER SOUTH COAST. THIS WILL
BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SBCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG...BUT LESS
INSTABILITY IF NO SUNSHINE.

INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON. HI-RES GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO WITH
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE INTERIOR LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AROUND
00Z. 0-6KM SHEAR INCREASES TO 35-40 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SO POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND SEVERE WEATHER
IF CAPES CAN EXCEED 1000 J/KG. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE QUITE
MEAGER AROUND 5 C/KM WHICH IS A LIMITING FACTOR...BUT ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND DEEP MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS.

MAIN THREAT IS HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING OF URBAN
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS GIVEN ANOMALOUS PWAT PLUME...BUT STRONG TO
DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE IF INSTABILITY IS REALIZED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...
CONVECTION LINGERS INTO AT LEAST THE START OF THE NIGHT. SIGNS IN
THE MODEL DATA THAT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY LINGER OVER SOUTHEAST
MASS/RI/CT LATER AT NIGHT. THIS MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUING OVERNIGHT IN THIS AREA. NO
AIRMASS CHANGE SO IT SHOULD BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH
DEWPOINTS AROUND 70...AND SO MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND 70 OR IN
THE LOWER 70S.

MONDAY...
WARM HUMID AIRMASS LINGERS OVER THE REGION. PRECIP WATER VALUES
CONTINUE ABOVE 2 INCHES SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND 1.5 TO 2.0
INCHES NORTH. DYNAMICS WILL BE DIMINISHING...BUT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER JET FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY. WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS...AND WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
BROAD RIDGING IS THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...MORE TYPICAL FOR THE
MIDDLE OF SUMMER RATHER THAN EARLY SEPTEMBER. HOWEVER...EARLY IN
THIS PERIOD...THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN THE
BROAD NORTHERN STREAM FLOW THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION. THE RIDGE
FINALLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED AROUND MID WEEK...WITH WARM BUT DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SOME QUESTIONS AS TO WHEN
THE RIDGING MAY BREAK DOWN...AS MODEL SOLUTIONS LATE IN THE RUN
TRY TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE WHILE BRINGING DOWN A H5 CUTOFF LOW
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC. A LOT OF
SOLUTION DIVERGENCE DURING THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST...HOWEVER.

OVERALL...HAVE FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST...
THOUGH SOME QUESTION AS TO TIMING THE FRONT OFF THE COAST EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE H5 PATTERN MAY BRIEFLY HANG UP...THEN MORE
QUESTIONS WITH THE POSSIBLE CHANGES IN THE STEERING PATTERN OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER LATE IN THE CYCLE.

HAVE LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO FRIDAY...THEN
PUSHED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE ECENS AND GEFS MEANS WHICH SHOWED A
SLOWER BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THE FRIDAY-SATURDAY TIMEFRAME.

DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT...
H5 SHORT WAVE HANGS UP A BIT ALONG THE S COAST EARLY MON NIGHT
WHICH WILL KEEP CHANCE FOR SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. FAIR AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY MOVE ALONG WITH THIS
FRONT...WITH K INDICES IN THE LOWER-MID 30S AND TOTAL TOTALS
APPROACHING 50. WILL REMAIN RATHER HUMID AND...WITH ANY LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL...WILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG REDEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WILL REMAIN STICKY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 65 TO 70
DEGREE RANGE.

TUESDAY...
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM STEADILY WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS OUT OF NY
STATE DURING TUESDAY...THOUGH SOME TIMING ISSUES IN PLACE AMONGST
THE OPERATIONAL MODEL SUITE. FOR NOW...DID INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS SW NH/W MA AROUND MIDDAY /THOUGH THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO
FAST/...THEN PUSHES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR DURING
THE AFTERNOON. MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL EVENING /IF THEN/ FOR COASTAL
AREAS. LOOKS LIKE MOST ENERGY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS
THE H5 HEIGHTS LIFT BACK INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN
QUEBEC TUE NIGHT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO CLEAR THE COAST LATE TUE
NIGHT WITH ANY LEFTOVER PRECIP ENDING.

WEDNESDAY...
EXPECT DRIER AIR TO SLOWLY WORK ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY
ON LIGHT W WINDS. HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD OUT OF THE
APPALACHIANS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM WITH A GENERAL W WIND FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE LAYER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER-MID 80S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
EXPECT DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUING WITH DEWPTS DOWN TO THE
50S...THOUGH AROUND 60 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S BOTH DAYS. A DRY FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH
EARLY FRI WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT.

SATURDAY...
LOTS OF QUESTIONS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS A COLD FRONT TRIES TO
WORK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...MAINLY DUE TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
THAT MAY TRY TO CHANGE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CANADA. TIMING IS VERY
MUCH IN QUESTION...THOUGH FOR NOW HAVE MENTIONED CHANCE POPS AS
THE FRONT MAY TRY TO WORK IN. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THRU SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

1030 AM UPDATE...

TODAY...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY
ALONG AND S OF THE MASS PIKE. THESE LOWER CIGS MAY LINGER INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON THEN TREND WILL BE FOR LIFTING CIGS TO VFR.
DEVELOPING SHOWERS/TSTMS AFTER 18-19Z WITH BEST CHANCE ACROSS
WESTERN/NORTHERN MASS AND SOUTHERN NH. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY
STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS...POSSIBLY A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AREAS OF MVFR TO LOCAL
IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY SHOWERS/TSRA.

TONIGHT...CONVECTION CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY NIGHT BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN FOG OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS. IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN MORNING FOG. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS STILL POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN AREAS OF SHOWERS. POSSIBLE TSRA ESPECIALLY
INLAND THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE SOME IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS
PRECIP MOVES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...BUT MAY CAUSE MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN
AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR-IFR VSBYS THROUGH AROUND 14Z IN PATCHY FOG...THEN BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR. MAY SEE PERIODS OF MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
ESPECIALLY INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. PRECIP SHOULD
TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG RETURNS AFTER 05Z-06Z WITH
MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN NORMALLY PRONE INLAND LOCATIONS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOCAL
MVFR- IFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG THROUGH 14Z WED. MAY AGAIN SEE LOCAL
MVFR- IFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG AROUND DAYBREAK THU OVER THE FAR
INTERIOR /SW NH AND N CENTRAL-W MA/.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

1030 AM UPDATE...
WE EXPANDED SCA FOR SOUTH COASTAL NEARSHORE WATERS FOR
EXPECTATION OF SOME G25 KT AFT 18Z INTO THIS EVENING AS MODEST LLJ
DEVELOPS.

TODAY...
DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AFTER
4 PM...EXCEPT AFTER 2 PM NORTH OF CAPE ANN. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE
STRONG WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS POOR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
SOUTHWEST WIND WILL GUST TO 20-22 KNOTS WHICH IS CLOSE TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE WIND WILL BUILD SEAS A TAD
WITH 5 FOOT HEIGHTS MOVING INTO THE OUTER WATERS LATE IN THE DAY.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN PUT IN EFFECT ON THE OUTER WATERS
STARTING THIS EVENING. IT IS MAINLY FOR THE 5 FOOT SEAS...BUT
WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO THRESHOLD AND SO WE WILL KEEP THE HEADLINE
NON-SPECIFIC.

TONIGHT...
THE POTENTIAL FOR 5 FOOT SEAS WILL EXTEND INTO RI SOUND ON THE
SOUTHWEST WIND. GAVE SOME THOUGHT ABOUT SIMILAR POTENTIALS FOR
BLOCK ISLAND SOUND AND BUZZARDS BAY...BUT PREFERRED THE BETTER
FETCH INTO RI SOUND WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN
EFFECT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS. BEST CHANCE
ON TIMING OF THE STORMS WOULD BE THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...BUT
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ANY STORMS
WOULD HAVE STRONG WIND GUSTS EARLY TONIGHT AND POOR VISIBILITY IN
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AT ANY TIME.

MONDAY...
WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. SMALL CRAFTS
WILL LINGER OVER THE OUTER WATERS DURING THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW WINDS DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHT. LEFTOVER 5 FT SEAS MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE FAR OUTER WATERS S AND E OF NANTUCKET EARLY MON
NIGHT...THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. MAY SEE SOME SW
WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT TUE NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO W-NW AND
DIMINISHING BY WED MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/KJC/EVT
MARINE...WTB/KJC/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 311432
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1032 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM HUMID FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. A UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
FROM THE GREAT LAKES DIVES EAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WINDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER
INTO MONDAY EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTH
OF THE MASS PIKE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM BUT LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL THEN FOLLOW
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM UPDATE...
LOTS OF LOWER CLOUDS HAVE MOVED IN/DEVELOPED ACROSS SNE THIS
MORNING. PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS NY/PA BUT THERE ARE SOME BREAKS
MOVING INTO SNE. ALSO SOME CLEARING ACROSS COASTAL NJ AND S OF
LONG ISLAND WHICH MAY BRING SOME BREAKS OF SUN TO THE REGION. THE
SKY COVER WILL BE AN IMPORTANT FACTOR IN HOW MUCH INSTABILITY IS
REALIZED THIS AFTERNOON.

TROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH PWATS
AROUND 2.25" BY 00Z. THIS IS 2-3 SD ABOVE NORMAL AND SFC DEWPOINTS
WILL BE REACHING 70 MAKING FOR A VERY HUMID DAY. 850 TEMPS AROUND
17C BUT CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT FULL HEATING POTENTIAL SO EXPECT
MAXES REACHING THE LOW TO MID 80S...COOLER SOUTH COAST. THIS WILL
BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SBCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG...BUT LESS
INSTABILITY IF NO SUNSHINE.

INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON. HI-RES GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO WITH
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE INTERIOR LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AROUND
00Z. 0-6KM SHEAR INCREASES TO 35-40 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SO POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND SEVERE WEATHER
IF CAPES CAN EXCEED 1000 J/KG. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE QUITE
MEAGER AROUND 5 C/KM WHICH IS A LIMITING FACTOR...BUT ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND DEEP MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS.

MAIN THREAT IS HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING OF URBAN
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS GIVEN ANOMALOUS PWAT PLUME...BUT STRONG TO
DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE IF INSTABILITY IS REALIZED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...
CONVECTION LINGERS INTO AT LEAST THE START OF THE NIGHT. SIGNS IN
THE MODEL DATA THAT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY LINGER OVER SOUTHEAST
MASS/RI/CT LATER AT NIGHT. THIS MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUING OVERNIGHT IN THIS AREA. NO
AIRMASS CHANGE SO IT SHOULD BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH
DEWPOINTS AROUND 70...AND SO MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND 70 OR IN
THE LOWER 70S.

MONDAY...
WARM HUMID AIRMASS LINGERS OVER THE REGION. PRECIP WATER VALUES
CONTINUE ABOVE 2 INCHES SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND 1.5 TO 2.0
INCHES NORTH. DYNAMICS WILL BE DIMINISHING...BUT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER JET FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY. WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS...AND WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
BROAD RIDGING IS THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...MORE TYPICAL FOR THE
MIDDLE OF SUMMER RATHER THAN EARLY SEPTEMBER. HOWEVER...EARLY IN
THIS PERIOD...THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN THE
BROAD NORTHERN STREAM FLOW THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION. THE RIDGE
FINALLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED AROUND MID WEEK...WITH WARM BUT DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SOME QUESTIONS AS TO WHEN
THE RIDGING MAY BREAK DOWN...AS MODEL SOLUTIONS LATE IN THE RUN
TRY TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE WHILE BRINGING DOWN A H5 CUTOFF LOW
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC. A LOT OF
SOLUTION DIVERGENCE DURING THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST...HOWEVER.

OVERALL...HAVE FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST...
THOUGH SOME QUESTION AS TO TIMING THE FRONT OFF THE COAST EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE H5 PATTERN MAY BRIEFLY HANG UP...THEN MORE
QUESTIONS WITH THE POSSIBLE CHANGES IN THE STEERING PATTERN OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER LATE IN THE CYCLE.

HAVE LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO FRIDAY...THEN
PUSHED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE ECENS AND GEFS MEANS WHICH SHOWED A
SLOWER BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THE FRIDAY-SATURDAY TIMEFRAME.

DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT...
H5 SHORT WAVE HANGS UP A BIT ALONG THE S COAST EARLY MON NIGHT
WHICH WILL KEEP CHANCE FOR SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. FAIR AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY MOVE ALONG WITH THIS
FRONT...WITH K INDICES IN THE LOWER-MID 30S AND TOTAL TOTALS
APPROACHING 50. WILL REMAIN RATHER HUMID AND...WITH ANY LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL...WILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG REDEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WILL REMAIN STICKY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 65 TO 70
DEGREE RANGE.

TUESDAY...
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM STEADILY WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS OUT OF NY
STATE DURING TUESDAY...THOUGH SOME TIMING ISSUES IN PLACE AMONGST
THE OPERATIONAL MODEL SUITE. FOR NOW...DID INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS SW NH/W MA AROUND MIDDAY /THOUGH THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO
FAST/...THEN PUSHES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR DURING
THE AFTERNOON. MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL EVENING /IF THEN/ FOR COASTAL
AREAS. LOOKS LIKE MOST ENERGY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS
THE H5 HEIGHTS LIFT BACK INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN
QUEBEC TUE NIGHT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO CLEAR THE COAST LATE TUE
NIGHT WITH ANY LEFTOVER PRECIP ENDING.

WEDNESDAY...
EXPECT DRIER AIR TO SLOWLY WORK ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY
ON LIGHT W WINDS. HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD OUT OF THE
APPALACHIANS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM WITH A GENERAL W WIND FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE LAYER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER-MID 80S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
EXPECT DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUING WITH DEWPTS DOWN TO THE
50S...THOUGH AROUND 60 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S BOTH DAYS. A DRY FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH
EARLY FRI WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT.

SATURDAY...
LOTS OF QUESTIONS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS A COLD FRONT TRIES TO
WORK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...MAINLY DUE TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
THAT MAY TRY TO CHANGE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CANADA. TIMING IS VERY
MUCH IN QUESTION...THOUGH FOR NOW HAVE MENTIONED CHANCE POPS AS
THE FRONT MAY TRY TO WORK IN. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THRU SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

1030 AM UPDATE...

TODAY...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY
ALONG AND S OF THE MASS PIKE. THESE LOWER CIGS MAY LINGER INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON THEN TREND WILL BE FOR LIFTING CIGS TO VFR.
DEVELOPING SHOWERS/TSTMS AFTER 18-19Z WITH BEST CHANCE ACROSS
WESTERN/NORTHERN MASS AND SOUTHERN NH. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY
STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS...POSSIBLY A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AREAS OF MVFR TO LOCAL
IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY SHOWERS/TSRA.

TONIGHT...CONVECTION CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY NIGHT BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN FOG OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS. IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN MORNING FOG. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS STILL POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN AREAS OF SHOWERS. POSSIBLE TSRA ESPECIALLY
INLAND THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE SOME IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS
PRECIP MOVES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...BUT MAY CAUSE MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN
AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR-IFR VSBYS THROUGH AROUND 14Z IN PATCHY FOG...THEN BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR. MAY SEE PERIODS OF MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
ESPECIALLY INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. PRECIP SHOULD
TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG RETURNS AFTER 05Z-06Z WITH
MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN NORMALLY PRONE INLAND LOCATIONS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOCAL
MVFR- IFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG THROUGH 14Z WED. MAY AGAIN SEE LOCAL
MVFR- IFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG AROUND DAYBREAK THU OVER THE FAR
INTERIOR /SW NH AND N CENTRAL-W MA/.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

1030 AM UPDATE...
WE EXPANDED SCA FOR SOUTH COASTAL NEARSHORE WATERS FOR
EXPECTATION OF SOME G25 KT AFT 18Z INTO THIS EVENING AS MODEST LLJ
DEVELOPS.

TODAY...
DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AFTER
4 PM...EXCEPT AFTER 2 PM NORTH OF CAPE ANN. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE
STRONG WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS POOR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
SOUTHWEST WIND WILL GUST TO 20-22 KNOTS WHICH IS CLOSE TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE WIND WILL BUILD SEAS A TAD
WITH 5 FOOT HEIGHTS MOVING INTO THE OUTER WATERS LATE IN THE DAY.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN PUT IN EFFECT ON THE OUTER WATERS
STARTING THIS EVENING. IT IS MAINLY FOR THE 5 FOOT SEAS...BUT
WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO THRESHOLD AND SO WE WILL KEEP THE HEADLINE
NON-SPECIFIC.

TONIGHT...
THE POTENTIAL FOR 5 FOOT SEAS WILL EXTEND INTO RI SOUND ON THE
SOUTHWEST WIND. GAVE SOME THOUGHT ABOUT SIMILAR POTENTIALS FOR
BLOCK ISLAND SOUND AND BUZZARDS BAY...BUT PREFERRED THE BETTER
FETCH INTO RI SOUND WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN
EFFECT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS. BEST CHANCE
ON TIMING OF THE STORMS WOULD BE THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...BUT
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ANY STORMS
WOULD HAVE STRONG WIND GUSTS EARLY TONIGHT AND POOR VISIBILITY IN
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AT ANY TIME.

MONDAY...
WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. SMALL CRAFTS
WILL LINGER OVER THE OUTER WATERS DURING THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW WINDS DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHT. LEFTOVER 5 FT SEAS MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE FAR OUTER WATERS S AND E OF NANTUCKET EARLY MON
NIGHT...THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. MAY SEE SOME SW
WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT TUE NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO W-NW AND
DIMINISHING BY WED MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/KJC/EVT
MARINE...WTB/KJC/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 311149
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
749 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM HUMID FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. A UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
FROM THE GREAT LAKES DIVES EAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WINDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER
INTO MONDAY EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTH
OF THE MASS PIKE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM BUT LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL THEN FOLLOW
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
740 AM UPDATE...
THIN LAYER OF LOW CLOUDS TENDING TO BREAK UP ACROSS S NH/NE AND
CENTRAL MA AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS AT 11Z.
DEWPTS GENERALLY FROM 60 TO 65 DEGREES...THOUGH A FEW DEGS HIGHER
ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO FILL IN ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NY/PA ON
LATEST IR SATELLITE TREND...AS AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVES SLOWLY
E ON NE 88D RADAR MOSAIC. ALSO NOTING AN AREA OF CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS S NJ/SE PA THAT MAY TRY TO WORK ACROSS THE REGION ON THE SW
WIND FLOW.

HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT AND INCORPORATED
INTO NEAR TERM TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND SURFACE COLD FRONT IN THE GREAT
LAKES SUGGESTS NO FROPA TODAY. THE UPPER SHORT WAVE PASSES ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER SHORTWAVE IS A
REASONABLE SCENARIO...WITH BEST CHANCE CLOSEST TO THE SHORTWAVE IN
WESTERN/NORTHERN MASS AND IN SOUTHERN NH.

AT THE LEAST THIS SHOULD BE A WARM VERY HUMID DAY. THE AIRMASS
WILL CONTAIN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FORECAST AT 2.0 TO 2.3 INCHES...ABOVE 2 STD DEVIATIONS AND SO
QUITE SIGNIFICANT. QUESTIONS OF THE DAY ARE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING CONVECTION. STABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS...LI AROUND -2 TO -4/TOTALS
INTO THE MID 40S. UPPER WIND FIELDS SUGGEST SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL
WITH 30 KNOTS AT 850 MB AND 40-50 KNOTS AT 500 MB.
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHEAR VALUES LOOK SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE
ORGANIZATION TO SOME TSTMS.

PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER...POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND A LOWER BUT REAL
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. FLASH FLOOD INDICES ARE ABOVE
3.5 INCHES...SO FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL BE ALONG THE LINES OF
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...
CONVECTION LINGERS INTO AT LEAST THE START OF THE NIGHT. SIGNS IN
THE MODEL DATA THAT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY LINGER OVER SOUTHEAST
MASS/RI/CT LATER AT NIGHT. THIS MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUING OVERNIGHT IN THIS AREA. NO
AIRMASS CHANGE SO IT SHOULD BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH
DEWPOINTS AROUND 70...AND SO MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND 70 OR IN
THE LOWER 70S.

MONDAY...
WARM HUMID AIRMASS LINGERS OVER THE REGION. PRECIP WATER VALUES
CONTINUE ABOVE 2 INCHES SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND 1.5 TO 2.0
INCHES NORTH. DYNAMICS WILL BE DIMINISHING...BUT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER JET FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY. WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS...AND WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
BROAD RIDGING IS THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...MORE TYPICAL FOR THE
MIDDLE OF SUMMER RATHER THAN EARLY SEPTEMBER. HOWEVER...EARLY IN
THIS PERIOD...THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN THE
BROAD NORTHERN STREAM FLOW THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION. THE RIDGE
FINALLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED AROUND MID WEEK...WITH WARM BUT DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SOME QUESTIONS AS TO WHEN
THE RIDGING MAY BREAK DOWN...AS MODEL SOLUTIONS LATE IN THE RUN
TRY TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE WHILE BRINGING DOWN A H5 CUTOFF LOW
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC. A LOT OF
SOLUTION DIVERGENCE DURING THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST...HOWEVER.

OVERALL...HAVE FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST...
THOUGH SOME QUESTION AS TO TIMING THE FRONT OFF THE COAST EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE H5 PATTERN MAY BRIEFLY HANG UP...THEN MORE
QUESTIONS WITH THE POSSIBLE CHANGES IN THE STEERING PATTERN OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER LATE IN THE CYCLE.

HAVE LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO FRIDAY...THEN
PUSHED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE ECENS AND GEFS MEANS WHICH SHOWED A
SLOWER BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THE FRIDAY-SATURDAY TIMEFRAME.

DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT...
H5 SHORT WAVE HANGS UP A BIT ALONG THE S COAST EARLY MON NIGHT
WHICH WILL KEEP CHANCE FOR SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. FAIR AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY MOVE ALONG WITH THIS
FRONT...WITH K INDICES IN THE LOWER-MID 30S AND TOTAL TOTALS
APPROACHING 50. WILL REMAIN RATHER HUMID AND...WITH ANY LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL...WILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG REDEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WILL REMAIN STICKY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 65 TO 70
DEGREE RANGE.

TUESDAY...
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM STEADILY WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS OUT OF NY
STATE DURING TUESDAY...THOUGH SOME TIMING ISSUES IN PLACE AMONGST
THE OPERATIONAL MODEL SUITE. FOR NOW...DID INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS SW NH/W MA AROUND MIDDAY /THOUGH THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO
FAST/...THEN PUSHES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR DURING
THE AFTERNOON. MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL EVENING /IF THEN/ FOR COASTAL
AREAS. LOOKS LIKE MOST ENERGY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS
THE H5 HEIGHTS LIFT BACK INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN
QUEBEC TUE NIGHT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO CLEAR THE COAST LATE TUE
NIGHT WITH ANY LEFTOVER PRECIP ENDING.

WEDNESDAY...
EXPECT DRIER AIR TO SLOWLY WORK ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY
ON LIGHT W WINDS. HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD OUT OF THE
APPALACHIANS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM WITH A GENERAL W WIND FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE LAYER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER-MID 80S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
EXPECT DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUING WITH DEWPTS DOWN TO THE
50S...THOUGH AROUND 60 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S BOTH DAYS. A DRY FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH
EARLY FRI WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT.

SATURDAY...
LOTS OF QUESTIONS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS A COLD FRONT TRIES TO
WORK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...MAINLY DUE TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
THAT MAY TRY TO CHANGE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CANADA. TIMING IS VERY
MUCH IN QUESTION...THOUGH FOR NOW HAVE MENTIONED CHANCE POPS AS
THE FRONT MAY TRY TO WORK IN. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THRU SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

TODAY...PATCHY MVFR-IFR CIGS THROUGH 14Z-15Z THEN MAINLY VFR. MVFR
MAY LINGER ALONG E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES THROUGH THE DAY AS
PRECIP APPROACHES THAT AREA. DEVELOPING TSTMS AFTER NOON WITH
BEST CHANCE AFTER 3 PM. BEST CHANCE WILL BE WESTERN/NORTHERN MASS
AND SOUTHERN NH. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY STORMS WITH POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS...POSSIBLY A FEW
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AREAS OF MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY
SHOWERS/TSRA.

TONIGHT...CONVECTION CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY NIGHT BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN FOG OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS. IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN MORNING FOG. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS STILL POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN AREAS OF SHOWERS. POSSIBLE TSRA ESPECIALLY
INLAND THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE SOME IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS
PRECIP MOVES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...BUT MAY CAUSE MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN
AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR-IFR VSBYS THROUGH AROUND 14Z IN PATCHY FOG...THEN BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR. MAY SEE PERIODS OF MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
ESPECIALLY INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. PRECIP SHOULD
TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG RETURNS AFTER 05Z-06Z WITH
MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN NORMALLY PRONE INLAND LOCATIONS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOCAL
MVFR- IFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG THROUGH 14Z WED. MAY AGAIN SEE LOCAL
MVFR- IFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG AROUND DAYBREAK THU OVER THE FAR
INTERIOR /SW NH AND N CENTRAL-W MA/.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

TODAY...
DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AFTER
4 PM...EXCEPT AFTER 2 PM NORTH OF CAPE ANN. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE
STRONG WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS POOR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
SOUTHWEST WIND WILL GUST TO 20-22 KNOTS WHICH IS CLOSE TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE WIND WILL BUILD SEAS A TAD
WITH 5 FOOT HEIGHTS MOVING INTO THE OUTER WATERS LATE IN THE DAY.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN PUT IN EFFECT ON THE OUTER WATERS
STARTING THIS EVENING. IT IS MAINLY FOR THE 5 FOOT SEAS...BUT
WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO THRESHOLD AND SO WE WILL KEEP THE HEADLINE
NON-SPECIFIC.

TONIGHT...
THE POTENTIAL FOR 5 FOOT SEAS WILL EXTEND INTO RI SOUND ON THE
SOUTHWEST WIND. GAVE SOME THOUGHT ABOUT SIMILAR POTENTIALS FOR
BLOCK ISLAND SOUND AND BUZZARDS BAY...BUT PREFERRED THE BETTER
FETCH INTO RI SOUND WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN
EFFECT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS. BEST CHANCE
ON TIMING OF THE STORMS WOULD BE THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...BUT
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ANY STORMS
WOULD HAVE STRONG WIND GUSTS EARLY TONIGHT AND POOR VISIBILITY IN
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AT ANY TIME.

MONDAY...
WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. SMALL CRAFTS
WILL LINGER OVER THE OUTER WATERS DURING THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW WINDS DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHT. LEFTOVER 5 FT SEAS MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE FAR OUTER WATERS S AND E OF NANTUCKET EARLY MON
NIGHT...THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. MAY SEE SOME SW
WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT TUE NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO W-NW AND
DIMINISHING BY WED MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ235.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 311149
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
749 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM HUMID FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. A UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
FROM THE GREAT LAKES DIVES EAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WINDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER
INTO MONDAY EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTH
OF THE MASS PIKE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM BUT LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL THEN FOLLOW
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
740 AM UPDATE...
THIN LAYER OF LOW CLOUDS TENDING TO BREAK UP ACROSS S NH/NE AND
CENTRAL MA AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS AT 11Z.
DEWPTS GENERALLY FROM 60 TO 65 DEGREES...THOUGH A FEW DEGS HIGHER
ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO FILL IN ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NY/PA ON
LATEST IR SATELLITE TREND...AS AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVES SLOWLY
E ON NE 88D RADAR MOSAIC. ALSO NOTING AN AREA OF CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS S NJ/SE PA THAT MAY TRY TO WORK ACROSS THE REGION ON THE SW
WIND FLOW.

HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT AND INCORPORATED
INTO NEAR TERM TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND SURFACE COLD FRONT IN THE GREAT
LAKES SUGGESTS NO FROPA TODAY. THE UPPER SHORT WAVE PASSES ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER SHORTWAVE IS A
REASONABLE SCENARIO...WITH BEST CHANCE CLOSEST TO THE SHORTWAVE IN
WESTERN/NORTHERN MASS AND IN SOUTHERN NH.

AT THE LEAST THIS SHOULD BE A WARM VERY HUMID DAY. THE AIRMASS
WILL CONTAIN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FORECAST AT 2.0 TO 2.3 INCHES...ABOVE 2 STD DEVIATIONS AND SO
QUITE SIGNIFICANT. QUESTIONS OF THE DAY ARE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING CONVECTION. STABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS...LI AROUND -2 TO -4/TOTALS
INTO THE MID 40S. UPPER WIND FIELDS SUGGEST SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL
WITH 30 KNOTS AT 850 MB AND 40-50 KNOTS AT 500 MB.
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHEAR VALUES LOOK SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE
ORGANIZATION TO SOME TSTMS.

PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER...POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND A LOWER BUT REAL
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. FLASH FLOOD INDICES ARE ABOVE
3.5 INCHES...SO FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL BE ALONG THE LINES OF
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...
CONVECTION LINGERS INTO AT LEAST THE START OF THE NIGHT. SIGNS IN
THE MODEL DATA THAT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY LINGER OVER SOUTHEAST
MASS/RI/CT LATER AT NIGHT. THIS MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUING OVERNIGHT IN THIS AREA. NO
AIRMASS CHANGE SO IT SHOULD BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH
DEWPOINTS AROUND 70...AND SO MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND 70 OR IN
THE LOWER 70S.

MONDAY...
WARM HUMID AIRMASS LINGERS OVER THE REGION. PRECIP WATER VALUES
CONTINUE ABOVE 2 INCHES SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND 1.5 TO 2.0
INCHES NORTH. DYNAMICS WILL BE DIMINISHING...BUT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER JET FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY. WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS...AND WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
BROAD RIDGING IS THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...MORE TYPICAL FOR THE
MIDDLE OF SUMMER RATHER THAN EARLY SEPTEMBER. HOWEVER...EARLY IN
THIS PERIOD...THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN THE
BROAD NORTHERN STREAM FLOW THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION. THE RIDGE
FINALLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED AROUND MID WEEK...WITH WARM BUT DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SOME QUESTIONS AS TO WHEN
THE RIDGING MAY BREAK DOWN...AS MODEL SOLUTIONS LATE IN THE RUN
TRY TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE WHILE BRINGING DOWN A H5 CUTOFF LOW
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC. A LOT OF
SOLUTION DIVERGENCE DURING THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST...HOWEVER.

OVERALL...HAVE FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST...
THOUGH SOME QUESTION AS TO TIMING THE FRONT OFF THE COAST EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE H5 PATTERN MAY BRIEFLY HANG UP...THEN MORE
QUESTIONS WITH THE POSSIBLE CHANGES IN THE STEERING PATTERN OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER LATE IN THE CYCLE.

HAVE LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO FRIDAY...THEN
PUSHED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE ECENS AND GEFS MEANS WHICH SHOWED A
SLOWER BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THE FRIDAY-SATURDAY TIMEFRAME.

DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT...
H5 SHORT WAVE HANGS UP A BIT ALONG THE S COAST EARLY MON NIGHT
WHICH WILL KEEP CHANCE FOR SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. FAIR AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY MOVE ALONG WITH THIS
FRONT...WITH K INDICES IN THE LOWER-MID 30S AND TOTAL TOTALS
APPROACHING 50. WILL REMAIN RATHER HUMID AND...WITH ANY LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL...WILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG REDEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WILL REMAIN STICKY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 65 TO 70
DEGREE RANGE.

TUESDAY...
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM STEADILY WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS OUT OF NY
STATE DURING TUESDAY...THOUGH SOME TIMING ISSUES IN PLACE AMONGST
THE OPERATIONAL MODEL SUITE. FOR NOW...DID INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS SW NH/W MA AROUND MIDDAY /THOUGH THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO
FAST/...THEN PUSHES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR DURING
THE AFTERNOON. MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL EVENING /IF THEN/ FOR COASTAL
AREAS. LOOKS LIKE MOST ENERGY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS
THE H5 HEIGHTS LIFT BACK INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN
QUEBEC TUE NIGHT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO CLEAR THE COAST LATE TUE
NIGHT WITH ANY LEFTOVER PRECIP ENDING.

WEDNESDAY...
EXPECT DRIER AIR TO SLOWLY WORK ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY
ON LIGHT W WINDS. HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD OUT OF THE
APPALACHIANS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM WITH A GENERAL W WIND FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE LAYER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER-MID 80S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
EXPECT DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUING WITH DEWPTS DOWN TO THE
50S...THOUGH AROUND 60 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S BOTH DAYS. A DRY FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH
EARLY FRI WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT.

SATURDAY...
LOTS OF QUESTIONS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS A COLD FRONT TRIES TO
WORK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...MAINLY DUE TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
THAT MAY TRY TO CHANGE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CANADA. TIMING IS VERY
MUCH IN QUESTION...THOUGH FOR NOW HAVE MENTIONED CHANCE POPS AS
THE FRONT MAY TRY TO WORK IN. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THRU SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

TODAY...PATCHY MVFR-IFR CIGS THROUGH 14Z-15Z THEN MAINLY VFR. MVFR
MAY LINGER ALONG E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES THROUGH THE DAY AS
PRECIP APPROACHES THAT AREA. DEVELOPING TSTMS AFTER NOON WITH
BEST CHANCE AFTER 3 PM. BEST CHANCE WILL BE WESTERN/NORTHERN MASS
AND SOUTHERN NH. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY STORMS WITH POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS...POSSIBLY A FEW
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AREAS OF MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY
SHOWERS/TSRA.

TONIGHT...CONVECTION CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY NIGHT BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN FOG OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS. IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN MORNING FOG. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS STILL POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN AREAS OF SHOWERS. POSSIBLE TSRA ESPECIALLY
INLAND THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE SOME IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS
PRECIP MOVES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...BUT MAY CAUSE MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN
AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR-IFR VSBYS THROUGH AROUND 14Z IN PATCHY FOG...THEN BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR. MAY SEE PERIODS OF MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
ESPECIALLY INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. PRECIP SHOULD
TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG RETURNS AFTER 05Z-06Z WITH
MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN NORMALLY PRONE INLAND LOCATIONS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOCAL
MVFR- IFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG THROUGH 14Z WED. MAY AGAIN SEE LOCAL
MVFR- IFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG AROUND DAYBREAK THU OVER THE FAR
INTERIOR /SW NH AND N CENTRAL-W MA/.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

TODAY...
DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AFTER
4 PM...EXCEPT AFTER 2 PM NORTH OF CAPE ANN. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE
STRONG WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS POOR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
SOUTHWEST WIND WILL GUST TO 20-22 KNOTS WHICH IS CLOSE TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE WIND WILL BUILD SEAS A TAD
WITH 5 FOOT HEIGHTS MOVING INTO THE OUTER WATERS LATE IN THE DAY.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN PUT IN EFFECT ON THE OUTER WATERS
STARTING THIS EVENING. IT IS MAINLY FOR THE 5 FOOT SEAS...BUT
WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO THRESHOLD AND SO WE WILL KEEP THE HEADLINE
NON-SPECIFIC.

TONIGHT...
THE POTENTIAL FOR 5 FOOT SEAS WILL EXTEND INTO RI SOUND ON THE
SOUTHWEST WIND. GAVE SOME THOUGHT ABOUT SIMILAR POTENTIALS FOR
BLOCK ISLAND SOUND AND BUZZARDS BAY...BUT PREFERRED THE BETTER
FETCH INTO RI SOUND WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN
EFFECT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS. BEST CHANCE
ON TIMING OF THE STORMS WOULD BE THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...BUT
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ANY STORMS
WOULD HAVE STRONG WIND GUSTS EARLY TONIGHT AND POOR VISIBILITY IN
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AT ANY TIME.

MONDAY...
WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. SMALL CRAFTS
WILL LINGER OVER THE OUTER WATERS DURING THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW WINDS DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHT. LEFTOVER 5 FT SEAS MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE FAR OUTER WATERS S AND E OF NANTUCKET EARLY MON
NIGHT...THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. MAY SEE SOME SW
WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT TUE NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO W-NW AND
DIMINISHING BY WED MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ235.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 311149
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
749 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM HUMID FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. A UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
FROM THE GREAT LAKES DIVES EAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WINDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER
INTO MONDAY EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTH
OF THE MASS PIKE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM BUT LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL THEN FOLLOW
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
740 AM UPDATE...
THIN LAYER OF LOW CLOUDS TENDING TO BREAK UP ACROSS S NH/NE AND
CENTRAL MA AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS AT 11Z.
DEWPTS GENERALLY FROM 60 TO 65 DEGREES...THOUGH A FEW DEGS HIGHER
ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO FILL IN ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NY/PA ON
LATEST IR SATELLITE TREND...AS AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVES SLOWLY
E ON NE 88D RADAR MOSAIC. ALSO NOTING AN AREA OF CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS S NJ/SE PA THAT MAY TRY TO WORK ACROSS THE REGION ON THE SW
WIND FLOW.

HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT AND INCORPORATED
INTO NEAR TERM TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND SURFACE COLD FRONT IN THE GREAT
LAKES SUGGESTS NO FROPA TODAY. THE UPPER SHORT WAVE PASSES ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER SHORTWAVE IS A
REASONABLE SCENARIO...WITH BEST CHANCE CLOSEST TO THE SHORTWAVE IN
WESTERN/NORTHERN MASS AND IN SOUTHERN NH.

AT THE LEAST THIS SHOULD BE A WARM VERY HUMID DAY. THE AIRMASS
WILL CONTAIN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FORECAST AT 2.0 TO 2.3 INCHES...ABOVE 2 STD DEVIATIONS AND SO
QUITE SIGNIFICANT. QUESTIONS OF THE DAY ARE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING CONVECTION. STABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS...LI AROUND -2 TO -4/TOTALS
INTO THE MID 40S. UPPER WIND FIELDS SUGGEST SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL
WITH 30 KNOTS AT 850 MB AND 40-50 KNOTS AT 500 MB.
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHEAR VALUES LOOK SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE
ORGANIZATION TO SOME TSTMS.

PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER...POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND A LOWER BUT REAL
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. FLASH FLOOD INDICES ARE ABOVE
3.5 INCHES...SO FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL BE ALONG THE LINES OF
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...
CONVECTION LINGERS INTO AT LEAST THE START OF THE NIGHT. SIGNS IN
THE MODEL DATA THAT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY LINGER OVER SOUTHEAST
MASS/RI/CT LATER AT NIGHT. THIS MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUING OVERNIGHT IN THIS AREA. NO
AIRMASS CHANGE SO IT SHOULD BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH
DEWPOINTS AROUND 70...AND SO MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND 70 OR IN
THE LOWER 70S.

MONDAY...
WARM HUMID AIRMASS LINGERS OVER THE REGION. PRECIP WATER VALUES
CONTINUE ABOVE 2 INCHES SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND 1.5 TO 2.0
INCHES NORTH. DYNAMICS WILL BE DIMINISHING...BUT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER JET FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY. WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS...AND WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
BROAD RIDGING IS THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...MORE TYPICAL FOR THE
MIDDLE OF SUMMER RATHER THAN EARLY SEPTEMBER. HOWEVER...EARLY IN
THIS PERIOD...THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN THE
BROAD NORTHERN STREAM FLOW THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION. THE RIDGE
FINALLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED AROUND MID WEEK...WITH WARM BUT DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SOME QUESTIONS AS TO WHEN
THE RIDGING MAY BREAK DOWN...AS MODEL SOLUTIONS LATE IN THE RUN
TRY TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE WHILE BRINGING DOWN A H5 CUTOFF LOW
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC. A LOT OF
SOLUTION DIVERGENCE DURING THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST...HOWEVER.

OVERALL...HAVE FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST...
THOUGH SOME QUESTION AS TO TIMING THE FRONT OFF THE COAST EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE H5 PATTERN MAY BRIEFLY HANG UP...THEN MORE
QUESTIONS WITH THE POSSIBLE CHANGES IN THE STEERING PATTERN OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER LATE IN THE CYCLE.

HAVE LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO FRIDAY...THEN
PUSHED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE ECENS AND GEFS MEANS WHICH SHOWED A
SLOWER BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THE FRIDAY-SATURDAY TIMEFRAME.

DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT...
H5 SHORT WAVE HANGS UP A BIT ALONG THE S COAST EARLY MON NIGHT
WHICH WILL KEEP CHANCE FOR SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. FAIR AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY MOVE ALONG WITH THIS
FRONT...WITH K INDICES IN THE LOWER-MID 30S AND TOTAL TOTALS
APPROACHING 50. WILL REMAIN RATHER HUMID AND...WITH ANY LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL...WILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG REDEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WILL REMAIN STICKY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 65 TO 70
DEGREE RANGE.

TUESDAY...
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM STEADILY WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS OUT OF NY
STATE DURING TUESDAY...THOUGH SOME TIMING ISSUES IN PLACE AMONGST
THE OPERATIONAL MODEL SUITE. FOR NOW...DID INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS SW NH/W MA AROUND MIDDAY /THOUGH THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO
FAST/...THEN PUSHES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR DURING
THE AFTERNOON. MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL EVENING /IF THEN/ FOR COASTAL
AREAS. LOOKS LIKE MOST ENERGY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS
THE H5 HEIGHTS LIFT BACK INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN
QUEBEC TUE NIGHT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO CLEAR THE COAST LATE TUE
NIGHT WITH ANY LEFTOVER PRECIP ENDING.

WEDNESDAY...
EXPECT DRIER AIR TO SLOWLY WORK ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY
ON LIGHT W WINDS. HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD OUT OF THE
APPALACHIANS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM WITH A GENERAL W WIND FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE LAYER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER-MID 80S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
EXPECT DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUING WITH DEWPTS DOWN TO THE
50S...THOUGH AROUND 60 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S BOTH DAYS. A DRY FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH
EARLY FRI WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT.

SATURDAY...
LOTS OF QUESTIONS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS A COLD FRONT TRIES TO
WORK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...MAINLY DUE TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
THAT MAY TRY TO CHANGE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CANADA. TIMING IS VERY
MUCH IN QUESTION...THOUGH FOR NOW HAVE MENTIONED CHANCE POPS AS
THE FRONT MAY TRY TO WORK IN. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THRU SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

TODAY...PATCHY MVFR-IFR CIGS THROUGH 14Z-15Z THEN MAINLY VFR. MVFR
MAY LINGER ALONG E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES THROUGH THE DAY AS
PRECIP APPROACHES THAT AREA. DEVELOPING TSTMS AFTER NOON WITH
BEST CHANCE AFTER 3 PM. BEST CHANCE WILL BE WESTERN/NORTHERN MASS
AND SOUTHERN NH. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY STORMS WITH POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS...POSSIBLY A FEW
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AREAS OF MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY
SHOWERS/TSRA.

TONIGHT...CONVECTION CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY NIGHT BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN FOG OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS. IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN MORNING FOG. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS STILL POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN AREAS OF SHOWERS. POSSIBLE TSRA ESPECIALLY
INLAND THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE SOME IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS
PRECIP MOVES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...BUT MAY CAUSE MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN
AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR-IFR VSBYS THROUGH AROUND 14Z IN PATCHY FOG...THEN BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR. MAY SEE PERIODS OF MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
ESPECIALLY INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. PRECIP SHOULD
TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG RETURNS AFTER 05Z-06Z WITH
MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN NORMALLY PRONE INLAND LOCATIONS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOCAL
MVFR- IFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG THROUGH 14Z WED. MAY AGAIN SEE LOCAL
MVFR- IFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG AROUND DAYBREAK THU OVER THE FAR
INTERIOR /SW NH AND N CENTRAL-W MA/.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

TODAY...
DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AFTER
4 PM...EXCEPT AFTER 2 PM NORTH OF CAPE ANN. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE
STRONG WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS POOR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
SOUTHWEST WIND WILL GUST TO 20-22 KNOTS WHICH IS CLOSE TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE WIND WILL BUILD SEAS A TAD
WITH 5 FOOT HEIGHTS MOVING INTO THE OUTER WATERS LATE IN THE DAY.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN PUT IN EFFECT ON THE OUTER WATERS
STARTING THIS EVENING. IT IS MAINLY FOR THE 5 FOOT SEAS...BUT
WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO THRESHOLD AND SO WE WILL KEEP THE HEADLINE
NON-SPECIFIC.

TONIGHT...
THE POTENTIAL FOR 5 FOOT SEAS WILL EXTEND INTO RI SOUND ON THE
SOUTHWEST WIND. GAVE SOME THOUGHT ABOUT SIMILAR POTENTIALS FOR
BLOCK ISLAND SOUND AND BUZZARDS BAY...BUT PREFERRED THE BETTER
FETCH INTO RI SOUND WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN
EFFECT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS. BEST CHANCE
ON TIMING OF THE STORMS WOULD BE THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...BUT
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ANY STORMS
WOULD HAVE STRONG WIND GUSTS EARLY TONIGHT AND POOR VISIBILITY IN
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AT ANY TIME.

MONDAY...
WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. SMALL CRAFTS
WILL LINGER OVER THE OUTER WATERS DURING THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW WINDS DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHT. LEFTOVER 5 FT SEAS MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE FAR OUTER WATERS S AND E OF NANTUCKET EARLY MON
NIGHT...THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. MAY SEE SOME SW
WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT TUE NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO W-NW AND
DIMINISHING BY WED MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ235.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 311149
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
749 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM HUMID FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. A UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
FROM THE GREAT LAKES DIVES EAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WINDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER
INTO MONDAY EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTH
OF THE MASS PIKE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM BUT LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL THEN FOLLOW
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
740 AM UPDATE...
THIN LAYER OF LOW CLOUDS TENDING TO BREAK UP ACROSS S NH/NE AND
CENTRAL MA AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS AT 11Z.
DEWPTS GENERALLY FROM 60 TO 65 DEGREES...THOUGH A FEW DEGS HIGHER
ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO FILL IN ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NY/PA ON
LATEST IR SATELLITE TREND...AS AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVES SLOWLY
E ON NE 88D RADAR MOSAIC. ALSO NOTING AN AREA OF CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS S NJ/SE PA THAT MAY TRY TO WORK ACROSS THE REGION ON THE SW
WIND FLOW.

HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT AND INCORPORATED
INTO NEAR TERM TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND SURFACE COLD FRONT IN THE GREAT
LAKES SUGGESTS NO FROPA TODAY. THE UPPER SHORT WAVE PASSES ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER SHORTWAVE IS A
REASONABLE SCENARIO...WITH BEST CHANCE CLOSEST TO THE SHORTWAVE IN
WESTERN/NORTHERN MASS AND IN SOUTHERN NH.

AT THE LEAST THIS SHOULD BE A WARM VERY HUMID DAY. THE AIRMASS
WILL CONTAIN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FORECAST AT 2.0 TO 2.3 INCHES...ABOVE 2 STD DEVIATIONS AND SO
QUITE SIGNIFICANT. QUESTIONS OF THE DAY ARE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING CONVECTION. STABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS...LI AROUND -2 TO -4/TOTALS
INTO THE MID 40S. UPPER WIND FIELDS SUGGEST SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL
WITH 30 KNOTS AT 850 MB AND 40-50 KNOTS AT 500 MB.
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHEAR VALUES LOOK SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE
ORGANIZATION TO SOME TSTMS.

PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER...POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND A LOWER BUT REAL
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. FLASH FLOOD INDICES ARE ABOVE
3.5 INCHES...SO FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL BE ALONG THE LINES OF
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...
CONVECTION LINGERS INTO AT LEAST THE START OF THE NIGHT. SIGNS IN
THE MODEL DATA THAT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY LINGER OVER SOUTHEAST
MASS/RI/CT LATER AT NIGHT. THIS MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUING OVERNIGHT IN THIS AREA. NO
AIRMASS CHANGE SO IT SHOULD BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH
DEWPOINTS AROUND 70...AND SO MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND 70 OR IN
THE LOWER 70S.

MONDAY...
WARM HUMID AIRMASS LINGERS OVER THE REGION. PRECIP WATER VALUES
CONTINUE ABOVE 2 INCHES SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND 1.5 TO 2.0
INCHES NORTH. DYNAMICS WILL BE DIMINISHING...BUT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER JET FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY. WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS...AND WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
BROAD RIDGING IS THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...MORE TYPICAL FOR THE
MIDDLE OF SUMMER RATHER THAN EARLY SEPTEMBER. HOWEVER...EARLY IN
THIS PERIOD...THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN THE
BROAD NORTHERN STREAM FLOW THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION. THE RIDGE
FINALLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED AROUND MID WEEK...WITH WARM BUT DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SOME QUESTIONS AS TO WHEN
THE RIDGING MAY BREAK DOWN...AS MODEL SOLUTIONS LATE IN THE RUN
TRY TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE WHILE BRINGING DOWN A H5 CUTOFF LOW
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC. A LOT OF
SOLUTION DIVERGENCE DURING THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST...HOWEVER.

OVERALL...HAVE FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST...
THOUGH SOME QUESTION AS TO TIMING THE FRONT OFF THE COAST EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE H5 PATTERN MAY BRIEFLY HANG UP...THEN MORE
QUESTIONS WITH THE POSSIBLE CHANGES IN THE STEERING PATTERN OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER LATE IN THE CYCLE.

HAVE LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO FRIDAY...THEN
PUSHED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE ECENS AND GEFS MEANS WHICH SHOWED A
SLOWER BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THE FRIDAY-SATURDAY TIMEFRAME.

DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT...
H5 SHORT WAVE HANGS UP A BIT ALONG THE S COAST EARLY MON NIGHT
WHICH WILL KEEP CHANCE FOR SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. FAIR AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY MOVE ALONG WITH THIS
FRONT...WITH K INDICES IN THE LOWER-MID 30S AND TOTAL TOTALS
APPROACHING 50. WILL REMAIN RATHER HUMID AND...WITH ANY LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL...WILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG REDEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WILL REMAIN STICKY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 65 TO 70
DEGREE RANGE.

TUESDAY...
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM STEADILY WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS OUT OF NY
STATE DURING TUESDAY...THOUGH SOME TIMING ISSUES IN PLACE AMONGST
THE OPERATIONAL MODEL SUITE. FOR NOW...DID INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS SW NH/W MA AROUND MIDDAY /THOUGH THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO
FAST/...THEN PUSHES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR DURING
THE AFTERNOON. MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL EVENING /IF THEN/ FOR COASTAL
AREAS. LOOKS LIKE MOST ENERGY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS
THE H5 HEIGHTS LIFT BACK INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN
QUEBEC TUE NIGHT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO CLEAR THE COAST LATE TUE
NIGHT WITH ANY LEFTOVER PRECIP ENDING.

WEDNESDAY...
EXPECT DRIER AIR TO SLOWLY WORK ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY
ON LIGHT W WINDS. HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD OUT OF THE
APPALACHIANS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM WITH A GENERAL W WIND FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE LAYER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER-MID 80S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
EXPECT DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUING WITH DEWPTS DOWN TO THE
50S...THOUGH AROUND 60 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S BOTH DAYS. A DRY FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH
EARLY FRI WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT.

SATURDAY...
LOTS OF QUESTIONS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS A COLD FRONT TRIES TO
WORK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...MAINLY DUE TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
THAT MAY TRY TO CHANGE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CANADA. TIMING IS VERY
MUCH IN QUESTION...THOUGH FOR NOW HAVE MENTIONED CHANCE POPS AS
THE FRONT MAY TRY TO WORK IN. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THRU SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

TODAY...PATCHY MVFR-IFR CIGS THROUGH 14Z-15Z THEN MAINLY VFR. MVFR
MAY LINGER ALONG E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES THROUGH THE DAY AS
PRECIP APPROACHES THAT AREA. DEVELOPING TSTMS AFTER NOON WITH
BEST CHANCE AFTER 3 PM. BEST CHANCE WILL BE WESTERN/NORTHERN MASS
AND SOUTHERN NH. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY STORMS WITH POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS...POSSIBLY A FEW
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AREAS OF MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY
SHOWERS/TSRA.

TONIGHT...CONVECTION CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY NIGHT BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN FOG OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS. IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN MORNING FOG. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS STILL POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN AREAS OF SHOWERS. POSSIBLE TSRA ESPECIALLY
INLAND THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE SOME IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS
PRECIP MOVES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...BUT MAY CAUSE MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN
AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR-IFR VSBYS THROUGH AROUND 14Z IN PATCHY FOG...THEN BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR. MAY SEE PERIODS OF MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
ESPECIALLY INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. PRECIP SHOULD
TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG RETURNS AFTER 05Z-06Z WITH
MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN NORMALLY PRONE INLAND LOCATIONS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOCAL
MVFR- IFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG THROUGH 14Z WED. MAY AGAIN SEE LOCAL
MVFR- IFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG AROUND DAYBREAK THU OVER THE FAR
INTERIOR /SW NH AND N CENTRAL-W MA/.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

TODAY...
DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AFTER
4 PM...EXCEPT AFTER 2 PM NORTH OF CAPE ANN. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE
STRONG WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS POOR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
SOUTHWEST WIND WILL GUST TO 20-22 KNOTS WHICH IS CLOSE TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE WIND WILL BUILD SEAS A TAD
WITH 5 FOOT HEIGHTS MOVING INTO THE OUTER WATERS LATE IN THE DAY.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN PUT IN EFFECT ON THE OUTER WATERS
STARTING THIS EVENING. IT IS MAINLY FOR THE 5 FOOT SEAS...BUT
WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO THRESHOLD AND SO WE WILL KEEP THE HEADLINE
NON-SPECIFIC.

TONIGHT...
THE POTENTIAL FOR 5 FOOT SEAS WILL EXTEND INTO RI SOUND ON THE
SOUTHWEST WIND. GAVE SOME THOUGHT ABOUT SIMILAR POTENTIALS FOR
BLOCK ISLAND SOUND AND BUZZARDS BAY...BUT PREFERRED THE BETTER
FETCH INTO RI SOUND WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN
EFFECT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS. BEST CHANCE
ON TIMING OF THE STORMS WOULD BE THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...BUT
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ANY STORMS
WOULD HAVE STRONG WIND GUSTS EARLY TONIGHT AND POOR VISIBILITY IN
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AT ANY TIME.

MONDAY...
WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. SMALL CRAFTS
WILL LINGER OVER THE OUTER WATERS DURING THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW WINDS DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHT. LEFTOVER 5 FT SEAS MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE FAR OUTER WATERS S AND E OF NANTUCKET EARLY MON
NIGHT...THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. MAY SEE SOME SW
WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT TUE NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO W-NW AND
DIMINISHING BY WED MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ235.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 310859
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
459 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM HUMID FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. A UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
FROM THE GREAT LAKES DIVES EAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WINDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER
INTO MONDAY EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTH
OF THE MASS PIKE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM BUT LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL THEN FOLLOW
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH 8 AM...
WARMER MORE HUMID AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
AS OF 2 AM DEWPOINTS HAD CLIMBED INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. EXPECT
THESE VALUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH MORNING. CLOUDS ARE
FILLING IN OVER THE NORTHEAST...SO WE EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH SUNRISE.

TODAY...
BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD AREA IS SOUTHWEST OF PHILADELPHIA. THIS IS
ABOUT WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE AROUND 70. THIS MEANS A CLOUDY START TO
THE DAY...BUT POTENTIAL FOR THE SUN TO BREAK THROUGH LATER IN THE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT IN THE GREAT LAKES SUGGESTS NO FROPA TODAY. THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SUPPORTED BY AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE IS A REASONABLE SCENARIO...WITH BEST CHANCE
CLOSEST TO THE SHORTWAVE IN WESTERN/NORTHERN MASS AND IN SOUTHERN
NH.

AT THE LEAST THIS SHOULD BE A WARM VERY HUMID DAY. THE AIRMASS
WILL CONTAIN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FORECAST AT 2.0 TO 2.30 INCHES...ABOVE 2 STD DEVIATIONS AND SO
QUITE SIGNIFICANT. QUESTIONS OF THE DAY ARE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING CONVECTION. STABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS...LI AROUND -2 TO -4/TOTALS
INTO THE MID 40S. UPPER WIND FIELDS SUGGEST SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL
WITH 30 KNOTS AT 850 MB AND 40-50 KNOTS AT 500 MB.
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHEAR VALUES LOOK SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE
ORGANIZATION TO SOME TSTMS.

PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER: POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND A LOWER BUT REAL
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. FLASH FLOOD INDICES ARE ABOVE
3.5 INCHES... SO FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL BE ALONG THE LINES OF
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...
CONVECTION LINGERS INTO AT LEAST THE START OF THE NIGHT. SIGNS IN
THE MODEL DATA THAT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY LINGER OVER SOUTHEAST
MASS/RI/CT LATER AT NIGHT. THIS MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUING OVERNIGHT IN THIS AREA. NO
AIRMASS CHANGE SO IT SHOULD BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH
DEWPOINTS AROUND 70...AND SO MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND 70 OR IN
THE LOWER 70S.

MONDAY...
WARM HUMID AIRMASS LINGERS OVER THE REGION. PRECIP WATER VALUES
CONTINUE ABOVE 2 INCHES SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND 1.5 TO 2.0
INCHES NORTH. DYNAMICS WILL BE DIMINISHING...BUT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER JET FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY. WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS...AND WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
BROAD RIDGING IS THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...MORE TYPICAL FOR THE
MIDDLE OF SUMMER RATHER THAN EARLY SEPTEMBER. HOWEVER...EARLY IN
THIS PERIOD...THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN THE
BROAD NORTHERN STREAM FLOW THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION. THE RIDGE
FINALLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED AROUND MID WEEK...WITH WARM BUT DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SOME QUESTIONS AS TO WHEN
THE RIDGING MAY BREAK DOWN...AS MODEL SOLUTIONS LATE IN THE RUN
TRY TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE WHILE BRINGING DOWN A H5 CUTOFF LOW
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC. A LOT OF
SOLUTION DIVERGENCE DURING THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST...HOWEVER.

OVERALL...HAVE FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST...
THOUGH SOME QUESTION AS TO TIMING THE FRONT OFF THE COAST EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE H5 PATTERN MAY BRIEFLY HANG UP...THEN MORE
QUESTIONS WITH THE POSSIBLE CHANGES IN THE STEERING PATTERN OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER LATE IN THE CYCLE.

HAVE LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO FRIDAY...THEN
PUSHED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE ECENS AND GEFS MEANS WHICH SHOWED A
SLOWER BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THE FRIDAY-SATURDAY TIMEFRAME.

DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT...
H5 SHORT WAVE HANGS UP A BIT ALONG THE S COAST EARLY MON NIGHT
WHICH WILL KEEP CHANCE FOR SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. FAIR AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY MOVE ALONG WITH THIS
FRONT...WITH K INDICES IN THE LOWER-MID 30S AND TOTAL TOTALS
APPROACHING 50. WILL REMAIN RATHER HUMID AND...WITH ANY LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL...WILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG REDEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WILL REMAIN STICKY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 65 TO 70
DEGREE RANGE.

TUESDAY...
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM STEADILY WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS OUT OF NY
STATE DURING TUESDAY...THOUGH SOME TIMING ISSUES IN PLACE AMONGST
THE OPERATIONAL MODEL SUITE. FOR NOW...DID INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS SW NH/W MA AROUND MIDDAY /THOUGH THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO
FAST/...THEN PUSHES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR DURING
THE AFTERNOON. MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL EVENING /IF THEN/ FOR COASTAL
AREAS. LOOKS LIKE MOST ENERGY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS
THE H5 HEIGHTS LIFT BACK INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN
QUEBEC TUE NIGHT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO CLEAR THE COAST LATE TUE
NIGHT WITH ANY LEFTOVER PRECIP ENDING.

WEDNESDAY...
EXPECT DRIER AIR TO SLOWLY WORK ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY
ON LIGHT W WINDS. HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD OUT OF THE
APPALACHIANS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM WITH A GENERAL W WIND FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE LAYER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER-MID 80S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
EXPECT DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUING WITH DEWPTS DOWN TO THE
50S...THOUGH AROUND 60 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S BOTH DAYS. A DRY FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH
EARLY FRI WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT.

SATURDAY...
LOTS OF QUESTIONS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS A COLD FRONT TRIES TO
WORK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...MAINLY DUE TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
THAT MAY TRY TO CHANGE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CANADA. TIMING IS VERY
MUCH IN QUESTION...THOUGH FOR NOW HAVE MENTIONED CHANCE POPS AS
THE FRONT MAY TRY TO WORK IN. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THRU SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

TODAY...VFR SKY COVER WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AROUND 2000 FEET.
THE LOWER CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
DEVELOPING TSTMS AFTER NOON WITH BEST CHANCE AFTER 3 PM. BEST
CHANCE WILL BE WESTERN/NORTHERN MASS AND SOUTHERN NH. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN ANY STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS...POSSIBLY A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

TONIGHT...CONVECTION CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY NIGHT BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN FOG OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS. IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN MORNING FOG. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS STILL POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN AREAS OF SHOWERS. POSSIBLE TSRA ESPECIALLY
INLAND THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE SOME IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS
PRECIP MOVES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...BUT MAY CAUSE MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN
AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR-IFR VSBYS THROUGH AROUND 14Z IN PATCHY FOG...THEN BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR. MAY SEE PERIODS OF MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
ESPECIALLY INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. PRECIP SHOULD
TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG RETURNS AFTER 05Z-06Z WITH
MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN NORMALLY PRONE INLAND LOCATIONS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOCAL
MVFR- IFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG THROUGH 14Z WED. MAY AGAIN SEE LOCAL
MVFR- IFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG AROUND DAYBREAK THU OVER THE FAR
INTERIOR /SW NH AND N CENTRAL-W MA/.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

TODAY...
DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AFTER
4 PM...EXCEPT AFTER 2 PM NORTH OF CAPE ANN. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE
STRONG WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS POOR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
SOUTHWEST WIND WILL GUST TO 20-22 KNOTS WHICH IS CLOSE TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE WIND WILL BUILD SEAS A TAD
WITH 5 FOOT HEIGHTS MOVING INTO THE OUTER WATERS LATE IN THE DAY.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN PUT IN EFFECT ON THE OUTER WATERS
STARTING THIS EVENING. IT IS MAINLY FOR THE 5 FOOT SEAS...BUT
WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO THRESHOLD AND SO WE WILL KEEP THE HEADLINE
NON-SPECIFIC.

TONIGHT...
THE POTENTIAL FOR 5 FOOT SEAS WILL EXTEND INTO RI SOUND ON THE
SOUTHWEST WIND. GAVE SOME THOUGHT ABOUT SIMILAR POTENTIALS FOR
BLOCK ISLAND SOUND AND BUZZARDS BAY...BUT PREFERRED THE BETTER
FETCH INTO RI SOUND WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN
EFFECT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS. BEST CHANCE
ON TIMING OF THE STORMS WOULD BE THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...BUT
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ANY STORMS
WOULD HAVE STRONG WIND GUSTS EARLY TONIGHT AND POOR VISIBILITY IN
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AT ANY TIME.

MONDAY...
WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. SMALL CRAFTS
WILL LINGER OVER THE OUTER WATERS DURING THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW WINDS DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHT. LEFTOVER 5 FT SEAS MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE FAR OUTER WATERS S AND E OF NANTUCKET EARLY MON
NIGHT...THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. MAY SEE SOME SW
WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT TUE NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO W-NW AND
DIMINISHING BY WED MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ235.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 310859
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
459 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM HUMID FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. A UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
FROM THE GREAT LAKES DIVES EAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WINDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER
INTO MONDAY EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTH
OF THE MASS PIKE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM BUT LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL THEN FOLLOW
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH 8 AM...
WARMER MORE HUMID AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
AS OF 2 AM DEWPOINTS HAD CLIMBED INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. EXPECT
THESE VALUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH MORNING. CLOUDS ARE
FILLING IN OVER THE NORTHEAST...SO WE EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH SUNRISE.

TODAY...
BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD AREA IS SOUTHWEST OF PHILADELPHIA. THIS IS
ABOUT WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE AROUND 70. THIS MEANS A CLOUDY START TO
THE DAY...BUT POTENTIAL FOR THE SUN TO BREAK THROUGH LATER IN THE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT IN THE GREAT LAKES SUGGESTS NO FROPA TODAY. THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SUPPORTED BY AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE IS A REASONABLE SCENARIO...WITH BEST CHANCE
CLOSEST TO THE SHORTWAVE IN WESTERN/NORTHERN MASS AND IN SOUTHERN
NH.

AT THE LEAST THIS SHOULD BE A WARM VERY HUMID DAY. THE AIRMASS
WILL CONTAIN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FORECAST AT 2.0 TO 2.30 INCHES...ABOVE 2 STD DEVIATIONS AND SO
QUITE SIGNIFICANT. QUESTIONS OF THE DAY ARE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING CONVECTION. STABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS...LI AROUND -2 TO -4/TOTALS
INTO THE MID 40S. UPPER WIND FIELDS SUGGEST SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL
WITH 30 KNOTS AT 850 MB AND 40-50 KNOTS AT 500 MB.
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHEAR VALUES LOOK SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE
ORGANIZATION TO SOME TSTMS.

PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER: POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND A LOWER BUT REAL
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. FLASH FLOOD INDICES ARE ABOVE
3.5 INCHES... SO FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL BE ALONG THE LINES OF
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...
CONVECTION LINGERS INTO AT LEAST THE START OF THE NIGHT. SIGNS IN
THE MODEL DATA THAT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY LINGER OVER SOUTHEAST
MASS/RI/CT LATER AT NIGHT. THIS MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUING OVERNIGHT IN THIS AREA. NO
AIRMASS CHANGE SO IT SHOULD BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH
DEWPOINTS AROUND 70...AND SO MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND 70 OR IN
THE LOWER 70S.

MONDAY...
WARM HUMID AIRMASS LINGERS OVER THE REGION. PRECIP WATER VALUES
CONTINUE ABOVE 2 INCHES SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND 1.5 TO 2.0
INCHES NORTH. DYNAMICS WILL BE DIMINISHING...BUT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER JET FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY. WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS...AND WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
BROAD RIDGING IS THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...MORE TYPICAL FOR THE
MIDDLE OF SUMMER RATHER THAN EARLY SEPTEMBER. HOWEVER...EARLY IN
THIS PERIOD...THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN THE
BROAD NORTHERN STREAM FLOW THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION. THE RIDGE
FINALLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED AROUND MID WEEK...WITH WARM BUT DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SOME QUESTIONS AS TO WHEN
THE RIDGING MAY BREAK DOWN...AS MODEL SOLUTIONS LATE IN THE RUN
TRY TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE WHILE BRINGING DOWN A H5 CUTOFF LOW
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC. A LOT OF
SOLUTION DIVERGENCE DURING THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST...HOWEVER.

OVERALL...HAVE FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST...
THOUGH SOME QUESTION AS TO TIMING THE FRONT OFF THE COAST EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE H5 PATTERN MAY BRIEFLY HANG UP...THEN MORE
QUESTIONS WITH THE POSSIBLE CHANGES IN THE STEERING PATTERN OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER LATE IN THE CYCLE.

HAVE LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO FRIDAY...THEN
PUSHED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE ECENS AND GEFS MEANS WHICH SHOWED A
SLOWER BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THE FRIDAY-SATURDAY TIMEFRAME.

DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT...
H5 SHORT WAVE HANGS UP A BIT ALONG THE S COAST EARLY MON NIGHT
WHICH WILL KEEP CHANCE FOR SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. FAIR AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY MOVE ALONG WITH THIS
FRONT...WITH K INDICES IN THE LOWER-MID 30S AND TOTAL TOTALS
APPROACHING 50. WILL REMAIN RATHER HUMID AND...WITH ANY LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL...WILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG REDEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WILL REMAIN STICKY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 65 TO 70
DEGREE RANGE.

TUESDAY...
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM STEADILY WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS OUT OF NY
STATE DURING TUESDAY...THOUGH SOME TIMING ISSUES IN PLACE AMONGST
THE OPERATIONAL MODEL SUITE. FOR NOW...DID INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS SW NH/W MA AROUND MIDDAY /THOUGH THIS MAY BE A BIT TOO
FAST/...THEN PUSHES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR DURING
THE AFTERNOON. MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL EVENING /IF THEN/ FOR COASTAL
AREAS. LOOKS LIKE MOST ENERGY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS
THE H5 HEIGHTS LIFT BACK INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN
QUEBEC TUE NIGHT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO CLEAR THE COAST LATE TUE
NIGHT WITH ANY LEFTOVER PRECIP ENDING.

WEDNESDAY...
EXPECT DRIER AIR TO SLOWLY WORK ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY
ON LIGHT W WINDS. HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD OUT OF THE
APPALACHIANS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM WITH A GENERAL W WIND FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE LAYER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER-MID 80S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
EXPECT DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUING WITH DEWPTS DOWN TO THE
50S...THOUGH AROUND 60 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S BOTH DAYS. A DRY FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH
EARLY FRI WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT.

SATURDAY...
LOTS OF QUESTIONS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS A COLD FRONT TRIES TO
WORK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...MAINLY DUE TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
THAT MAY TRY TO CHANGE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CANADA. TIMING IS VERY
MUCH IN QUESTION...THOUGH FOR NOW HAVE MENTIONED CHANCE POPS AS
THE FRONT MAY TRY TO WORK IN. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THRU SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

TODAY...VFR SKY COVER WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AROUND 2000 FEET.
THE LOWER CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
DEVELOPING TSTMS AFTER NOON WITH BEST CHANCE AFTER 3 PM. BEST
CHANCE WILL BE WESTERN/NORTHERN MASS AND SOUTHERN NH. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN ANY STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS...POSSIBLY A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

TONIGHT...CONVECTION CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY NIGHT BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN FOG OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS. IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN MORNING FOG. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS STILL POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN AREAS OF SHOWERS. POSSIBLE TSRA ESPECIALLY
INLAND THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE SOME IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS
PRECIP MOVES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...BUT MAY CAUSE MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN
AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR-IFR VSBYS THROUGH AROUND 14Z IN PATCHY FOG...THEN BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR. MAY SEE PERIODS OF MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
ESPECIALLY INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. PRECIP SHOULD
TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG RETURNS AFTER 05Z-06Z WITH
MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN NORMALLY PRONE INLAND LOCATIONS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOCAL
MVFR- IFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG THROUGH 14Z WED. MAY AGAIN SEE LOCAL
MVFR- IFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG AROUND DAYBREAK THU OVER THE FAR
INTERIOR /SW NH AND N CENTRAL-W MA/.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

TODAY...
DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AFTER
4 PM...EXCEPT AFTER 2 PM NORTH OF CAPE ANN. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE
STRONG WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS POOR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
SOUTHWEST WIND WILL GUST TO 20-22 KNOTS WHICH IS CLOSE TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE WIND WILL BUILD SEAS A TAD
WITH 5 FOOT HEIGHTS MOVING INTO THE OUTER WATERS LATE IN THE DAY.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN PUT IN EFFECT ON THE OUTER WATERS
STARTING THIS EVENING. IT IS MAINLY FOR THE 5 FOOT SEAS...BUT
WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO THRESHOLD AND SO WE WILL KEEP THE HEADLINE
NON-SPECIFIC.

TONIGHT...
THE POTENTIAL FOR 5 FOOT SEAS WILL EXTEND INTO RI SOUND ON THE
SOUTHWEST WIND. GAVE SOME THOUGHT ABOUT SIMILAR POTENTIALS FOR
BLOCK ISLAND SOUND AND BUZZARDS BAY...BUT PREFERRED THE BETTER
FETCH INTO RI SOUND WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN
EFFECT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS. BEST CHANCE
ON TIMING OF THE STORMS WOULD BE THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...BUT
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ANY STORMS
WOULD HAVE STRONG WIND GUSTS EARLY TONIGHT AND POOR VISIBILITY IN
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AT ANY TIME.

MONDAY...
WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. SMALL CRAFTS
WILL LINGER OVER THE OUTER WATERS DURING THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SW WINDS DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHT. LEFTOVER 5 FT SEAS MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE FAR OUTER WATERS S AND E OF NANTUCKET EARLY MON
NIGHT...THEN SHOULD SUBSIDE.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. MAY SEE SOME SW
WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT TUE NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO W-NW AND
DIMINISHING BY WED MORNING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ235.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 310750
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
350 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM HUMID FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST USA. A UPPER SHORTWAVE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES DRIVES EAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
BRINGING POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG
WINDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER TUESDAY. WARM BUT LESS HUMID WEATHER
WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH 8 AM...
WARMER MORE HUMID AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
AS OF 2 AM DEWPOINTS HAD CLIMBED INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. EXPECT
THESE VALUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH MORNING. CLOUDS ARE
FILLING IN OVER THE NORTHEAST...SO WE EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH SUNRISE.

TODAY...
BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD AREA IS SOUTHWEST OF PHILADELPHIA. THIS IS
ABOUT WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE AROUND 70. THIS MEANS A CLOUDY START TO
THE DAY...BUT POTENTIAL FOR THE SUN TO BREAK THROUGH LATER IN THE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT IN THE GREAT LAKES SUGGESTS NO FROPA TODAY. THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SUPPORTED BY AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE IS A REASONABLE SCENARIO...WITH BEST CHANCE
CLOSEST TO THE SHORTWAVE IN WESTERN/NORTHERN MASS AND IN SOUTHERN
NH.

AT THE LEAST THIS SHOULD BE A WARM VERY HUMID DAY. THE AIRMASS
WILL CONTAIN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FORECAST AT 2.0 TO 2.30 INCHES...ABOVE 2 STD DEVIATIONS AND SO
QUITE SIGNIFICANT. QUESTIONS OF THE DAY ARE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING CONVECTION. STABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS...LI AROUND -2 TO -4/TOTALS
INTO THE MID 40S. UPPER WIND FIELDS SUGGEST SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL
WITH 30 KNOTS AT 850 MB AND 40-50 KNOTS AT 500 MB.
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHEAR VALUES LOOK SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE
ORGANIZATION TO SOME TSTMS.

PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER: POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND A LOWER BUT REAL
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. FLASH FLOOD INDICES ARE ABOVE
3.5 INCHES... SO FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL BE ALONG THE LINES OF
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...
CONVECTION LINGERS INTO AT LEAST THE START OF THE NIGHT. SIGNS IN
THE MODEL DATA THAT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY LINGER OVER SOUTHEAST
MASS/RI/CT LATER AT NIGHT. THIS MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUING OVERNIGHT IN THIS AREA. NO
AIRMASS CHANGE SO IT SHOULD BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH
DEWPOINTS AROUND 70...AND SO MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND 70 OR IN
THE LOWER 70S.

MONDAY...
WARM HUMID AIRMASS LINGERS OVER THE REGION. PRECIP WATER VALUES
CONTINUE ABOVE 2 INCHES SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND 1.5 TO 2.0
INCHES NORTH. DYNAMICS WILL BE DIMINISHING...BUT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER JET FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY. WE WILL CONTINUE
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS...AND WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HEADLINES...

* HEAVY SHOWERS/T-STORMS POSSIBLE MON...TUE EVENING INTO EARLY
  WED
* BRIEF BREAK/DRY WEATHER TUESDAY
* DRYING HIGH PRESSURE WED THROUGH FRIDAY

OVERVIEW...THE OVERALL PATTERN HAS THE STATES CONTAINING A RIDGE IN
THE EAST AND A TROUGH IN THE WEST. THE BOUNDARY IN BEWTEEN SHOULD
THEN BRING IN MOISTURE ALONG A COLD FRONT. AFTER THE RAIN-CAUSING
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
FOR SATURDAY. A NEGATIVE NAO FORMS BLOCKING UP THE PATTERN LATE
WHILE A NEGATIVE PNA STAYS OVER THE UNITED STATES KEEPING THE RIDGE
OVER THE EAST COAST.

MODELS HAVE A GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST COMES INTO QUESTION
EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE ECMWF HAS A DIGGING TROUGH ON THE WEST
COAST WHEREAS THE 6Z GFS HAS MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DURING
THIS PERIOD. WITH THE QUICKER ZONAL FLOW PATTERN...THE 6Z GFS
BRINGS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF...WHICH IS
ITS NORMAL BIAS...SO HAVE LEANED AGAINST THE 6Z GFS FOR THAT
PERIOD. THE 6Z GFS IS LATER THAN THE ECMWF BRINGING THAT TROUGH
DOWN INTO THE STATES AS WELL SO EXTRA INSTABILITY IS INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT VIA THE 6Z GFS. HAVE LEANED AGAINST THAT AS
WELL AND MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF...12Z GFS AND ENSEMBLES THAT HAVE
A HIGH STILL OVER THE EAST COAST.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...POSSIBILITY OF FOG IN VALLEYS AND OTHER FOG PRONE AREAS.
OTHERWISE AREAS OF ISENTROPIC DESCENSION...RISING HEIGHTS AND RISING
700 MB TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE TO 10C ALLUDE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A
LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD. BELIEVE THAT OCCURS
FROM EARLY MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS WILL AGAIN REACH
THE 70S DURING THE DAY. THEN...A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A GERATER POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWESTERN MA. THIS IS
WHERE NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES AND BETTER SHEAR EXISTS.

WEDNESDAY...AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH IN THE MORNING...
EXPECT TO SEE ANY SHOWERS COME TO AN END AND DRIER AIR PUSH IN. A
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE CONTROL WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES. CLEARING SKIES AND
DRIER AIR WITH DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY...HAVE TO WATCH FOR AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THRU SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

TODAY...VFR SKY COVER WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AROUND 2000 FEET.
THE LOWER CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
DEVELOPING TSTMS AFTER NOON WITH BEST CHANCE AFTER 3 PM. BEST
CHANCE WILL BE WESTERN/NORTHERN MASS AND SOUTHERN NH. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN ANY STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS...POSSIBLY A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

TONIGHT...CONVECTION CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY NIGHT BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN FOG OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS. IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN MORNING FOG. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS STILL POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAY SEE PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS IN
THE MORNING. A WINDOW OF PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER EXPECTED
SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD. OTHERWISE ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND STORMS. SW
WINDS CONTINUE.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS FROM DEPARTING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. EVENTUAL
CHANGE FROM SW WINDS TO NW WINDS WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

TODAY...
DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AFTER
4 PM...EXCEPT AFTER 2 PM NORTH OF CAPE ANN. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE
STRONG WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS POOR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
SOUTHWEST WIND WILL GUST TO 20-22 KNOTS WHICH IS CLOSE TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS. THE PERSISTANCE OF THE WIND WILL BUILD SEAS A TAD
WITH 5 FOOT HEIGHTS MOVING INTO THE OUTER WATERS LATE IN THE DAY.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN PUT IN EFFECT ON THE OUTER WATERS
STARTING THIS EVENING. IT IS MAINLY FOR THE 5 FOOT SEAS...BUT
WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO THRESHOLD AND SO WE WILL KEEP THE HEADLINE
NON-SPECIFIC.

TONIGHT...
THE POTENTIAL FOR 5 FOOT SEAS WILL EXTEND INTO RI SOUND ON THE
SOUTHWEST WIND. GAVE SOME THOUGHT ABOUT SIMILAR POTENTIALS FOR
BLOCK ISLAND SOUND AND BUZZARDS BAY...BUT PREFERED THE BETTER
FETCH INTO RI SOUND WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN
EFFECT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS. BEST CHANCE
ON TIMING OF THE STORMS WOULD BE THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...BUT
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ANY STORMS
WOULD HAVE STRONG WIND GUSTS EARLY TONIGHT AND POOR VISIBILITY IN
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AT ANY TIME.

MONDAY...
WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. SMALL CRAFTS
WILL LINGER OVER THE OUTER WATERS DURING THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SW WINDS WILL VEER
TO NW LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ235.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...WTB/GAF
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...WTB
MARINE...WTB/NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 310750
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
350 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM HUMID FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST USA. A UPPER SHORTWAVE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES DRIVES EAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
BRINGING POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG
WINDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER TUESDAY. WARM BUT LESS HUMID WEATHER
WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH 8 AM...
WARMER MORE HUMID AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
AS OF 2 AM DEWPOINTS HAD CLIMBED INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. EXPECT
THESE VALUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH MORNING. CLOUDS ARE
FILLING IN OVER THE NORTHEAST...SO WE EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH SUNRISE.

TODAY...
BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD AREA IS SOUTHWEST OF PHILADELPHIA. THIS IS
ABOUT WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE AROUND 70. THIS MEANS A CLOUDY START TO
THE DAY...BUT POTENTIAL FOR THE SUN TO BREAK THROUGH LATER IN THE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT IN THE GREAT LAKES SUGGESTS NO FROPA TODAY. THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SUPPORTED BY AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE IS A REASONABLE SCENARIO...WITH BEST CHANCE
CLOSEST TO THE SHORTWAVE IN WESTERN/NORTHERN MASS AND IN SOUTHERN
NH.

AT THE LEAST THIS SHOULD BE A WARM VERY HUMID DAY. THE AIRMASS
WILL CONTAIN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FORECAST AT 2.0 TO 2.30 INCHES...ABOVE 2 STD DEVIATIONS AND SO
QUITE SIGNIFICANT. QUESTIONS OF THE DAY ARE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING CONVECTION. STABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS...LI AROUND -2 TO -4/TOTALS
INTO THE MID 40S. UPPER WIND FIELDS SUGGEST SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL
WITH 30 KNOTS AT 850 MB AND 40-50 KNOTS AT 500 MB.
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHEAR VALUES LOOK SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE
ORGANIZATION TO SOME TSTMS.

PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER: POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND A LOWER BUT REAL
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. FLASH FLOOD INDICES ARE ABOVE
3.5 INCHES... SO FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL BE ALONG THE LINES OF
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...
CONVECTION LINGERS INTO AT LEAST THE START OF THE NIGHT. SIGNS IN
THE MODEL DATA THAT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY LINGER OVER SOUTHEAST
MASS/RI/CT LATER AT NIGHT. THIS MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUING OVERNIGHT IN THIS AREA. NO
AIRMASS CHANGE SO IT SHOULD BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH
DEWPOINTS AROUND 70...AND SO MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND 70 OR IN
THE LOWER 70S.

MONDAY...
WARM HUMID AIRMASS LINGERS OVER THE REGION. PRECIP WATER VALUES
CONTINUE ABOVE 2 INCHES SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND 1.5 TO 2.0
INCHES NORTH. DYNAMICS WILL BE DIMINISHING...BUT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER JET FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY. WE WILL CONTINUE
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS...AND WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HEADLINES...

* HEAVY SHOWERS/T-STORMS POSSIBLE MON...TUE EVENING INTO EARLY
  WED
* BRIEF BREAK/DRY WEATHER TUESDAY
* DRYING HIGH PRESSURE WED THROUGH FRIDAY

OVERVIEW...THE OVERALL PATTERN HAS THE STATES CONTAINING A RIDGE IN
THE EAST AND A TROUGH IN THE WEST. THE BOUNDARY IN BEWTEEN SHOULD
THEN BRING IN MOISTURE ALONG A COLD FRONT. AFTER THE RAIN-CAUSING
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
FOR SATURDAY. A NEGATIVE NAO FORMS BLOCKING UP THE PATTERN LATE
WHILE A NEGATIVE PNA STAYS OVER THE UNITED STATES KEEPING THE RIDGE
OVER THE EAST COAST.

MODELS HAVE A GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST COMES INTO QUESTION
EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE ECMWF HAS A DIGGING TROUGH ON THE WEST
COAST WHEREAS THE 6Z GFS HAS MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DURING
THIS PERIOD. WITH THE QUICKER ZONAL FLOW PATTERN...THE 6Z GFS
BRINGS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF...WHICH IS
ITS NORMAL BIAS...SO HAVE LEANED AGAINST THE 6Z GFS FOR THAT
PERIOD. THE 6Z GFS IS LATER THAN THE ECMWF BRINGING THAT TROUGH
DOWN INTO THE STATES AS WELL SO EXTRA INSTABILITY IS INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT VIA THE 6Z GFS. HAVE LEANED AGAINST THAT AS
WELL AND MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF...12Z GFS AND ENSEMBLES THAT HAVE
A HIGH STILL OVER THE EAST COAST.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...POSSIBILITY OF FOG IN VALLEYS AND OTHER FOG PRONE AREAS.
OTHERWISE AREAS OF ISENTROPIC DESCENSION...RISING HEIGHTS AND RISING
700 MB TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE TO 10C ALLUDE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A
LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD. BELIEVE THAT OCCURS
FROM EARLY MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS WILL AGAIN REACH
THE 70S DURING THE DAY. THEN...A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A GERATER POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWESTERN MA. THIS IS
WHERE NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES AND BETTER SHEAR EXISTS.

WEDNESDAY...AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH IN THE MORNING...
EXPECT TO SEE ANY SHOWERS COME TO AN END AND DRIER AIR PUSH IN. A
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE CONTROL WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES. CLEARING SKIES AND
DRIER AIR WITH DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY...HAVE TO WATCH FOR AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THRU SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

TODAY...VFR SKY COVER WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AROUND 2000 FEET.
THE LOWER CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
DEVELOPING TSTMS AFTER NOON WITH BEST CHANCE AFTER 3 PM. BEST
CHANCE WILL BE WESTERN/NORTHERN MASS AND SOUTHERN NH. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN ANY STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS...POSSIBLY A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

TONIGHT...CONVECTION CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY NIGHT BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN FOG OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS. IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN MORNING FOG. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS STILL POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAY SEE PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS IN
THE MORNING. A WINDOW OF PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER EXPECTED
SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD. OTHERWISE ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND STORMS. SW
WINDS CONTINUE.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS FROM DEPARTING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. EVENTUAL
CHANGE FROM SW WINDS TO NW WINDS WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

TODAY...
DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AFTER
4 PM...EXCEPT AFTER 2 PM NORTH OF CAPE ANN. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE
STRONG WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS POOR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
SOUTHWEST WIND WILL GUST TO 20-22 KNOTS WHICH IS CLOSE TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS. THE PERSISTANCE OF THE WIND WILL BUILD SEAS A TAD
WITH 5 FOOT HEIGHTS MOVING INTO THE OUTER WATERS LATE IN THE DAY.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN PUT IN EFFECT ON THE OUTER WATERS
STARTING THIS EVENING. IT IS MAINLY FOR THE 5 FOOT SEAS...BUT
WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO THRESHOLD AND SO WE WILL KEEP THE HEADLINE
NON-SPECIFIC.

TONIGHT...
THE POTENTIAL FOR 5 FOOT SEAS WILL EXTEND INTO RI SOUND ON THE
SOUTHWEST WIND. GAVE SOME THOUGHT ABOUT SIMILAR POTENTIALS FOR
BLOCK ISLAND SOUND AND BUZZARDS BAY...BUT PREFERED THE BETTER
FETCH INTO RI SOUND WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN
EFFECT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS. BEST CHANCE
ON TIMING OF THE STORMS WOULD BE THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...BUT
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ANY STORMS
WOULD HAVE STRONG WIND GUSTS EARLY TONIGHT AND POOR VISIBILITY IN
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AT ANY TIME.

MONDAY...
WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. SMALL CRAFTS
WILL LINGER OVER THE OUTER WATERS DURING THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SW WINDS WILL VEER
TO NW LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ235.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...WTB/GAF
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...WTB
MARINE...WTB/NOCERA



000
FXUS61 KBOX 310749
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
349 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM HUMID FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST USA. A UPPER SHORTWAVE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES DRIVES EAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
BRINGING POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG
WINDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER TUESDAY. WARM BUT LESS HUMID WEATHER
WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH 8 AM...
WARMER MORE HUMID AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
AS OF 2 AM DEWPOINTS HAD CLIMBED INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. EXPECT
THESE VALUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH MORNING. CLOUDS ARE
FILLING IN OVER THE NORTHEAST...SO WE EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH SUNRISE.

TODAY...
BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD AREA IS SOUTHWEST OF PHILADELPHIA. THIS IS
ABOUT WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE AROUND 70. THIS MEANS A CLOUDY START TO
THE DAY...BUT POTENTIAL FOR THE SUN TO BREAK THROUGH LATER IN THE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT IN THE GREAT LAKES SUGGESTS NO FROPA TODAY. THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SUPPORTED BY AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE IS A REASONABLE SCENARIO...WITH BEST CHANCE
CLOSEST TO THE SHORTWAVE IN WESTERN/NORTHERN MASS AND IN SOUTHERN
NH.

AT THE LEAST THIS SHOULD BE A WARM VERY HUMID DAY. THE AIRMASS
WILL CONTAIN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FORECAST AT 2.0 TO 2.30 INCHES...ABOVE 2 STD DEVIATIONS AND SO
QUITE SIGNIFICANT. QUESTIONS OF THE DAY ARE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING CONVECTION. STABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS...LI AROUND -2 TO -4/TOTALS
INTO THE MID 40S. UPPER WIND FIELDS SUGGEST SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL
WITH 30 KNOTS AT 850 MB AND 40-50 KNOTS AT 500 MB.
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHEAR VALUES LOOK SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE
ORGANIZATION TO SOME TSTMS.

PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER: POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND A LOWER BUT REAL
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. FLASH FLOOD INDICES ARE ABOVE
3.5 INCHES... SO FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL BE ALONG THE LINES OF
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...
CONVECTION LINGERS INTO AT LEAST THE START OF THE NIGHT. SIGNS IN
THE MODEL DATA THAT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY LINGER OVER SOUTHEAST
MASS/RI/CT LATER AT NIGHT. THIS MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUING OVERNIGHT IN THIS AREA. NO
AIRMASS CHANGE SO IT SHOULD BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH
DEWPOINTS AROUND 70...AND SO MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND 70 OR IN
THE LOWER 70S.

MONDAY...
WARM HUMID AIRMASS LINGERS OVER THE REGION. PRECIP WATER VALUES
CONTINUE ABOVE 2 INCHES SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND 1.5 TO 2.0
INCHES NORTH. DYNAMICS WILL BE DIMINISHING...BUT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER JET FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY. WE WILL CONTINUE
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS...AND WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HEADLINES...

* HEAVY SHOWERS/T-STORMS POSSIBLE MON...TUE EVENING INTO EARLY
  WED
* BRIEF BREAK/DRY WEATHER TUESDAY
* DRYING HIGH PRESSURE WED THROUGH FRIDAY

OVERVIEW...THE OVERALL PATTERN HAS THE STATES CONTAINING A RIDGE IN
THE EAST AND A TROUGH IN THE WEST. THE BOUNDARY IN BEWTEEN SHOULD
THEN BRING IN MOISTURE ALONG A COLD FRONT. AFTER THE RAIN-CAUSING
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
FOR SATURDAY. A NEGATIVE NAO FORMS BLOCKING UP THE PATTERN LATE
WHILE A NEGATIVE PNA STAYS OVER THE UNITED STATES KEEPING THE RIDGE
OVER THE EAST COAST.

MODELS HAVE A GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST COMES INTO QUESTION
EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE ECMWF HAS A DIGGING TROUGH ON THE WEST
COAST WHEREAS THE 6Z GFS HAS MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DURING
THIS PERIOD. WITH THE QUICKER ZONAL FLOW PATTERN...THE 6Z GFS
BRINGS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF...WHICH IS
ITS NORMAL BIAS...SO HAVE LEANED AGAINST THE 6Z GFS FOR THAT
PERIOD. THE 6Z GFS IS LATER THAN THE ECMWF BRINGING THAT TROUGH
DOWN INTO THE STATES AS WELL SO EXTRA INSTABILITY IS INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT VIA THE 6Z GFS. HAVE LEANED AGAINST THAT AS
WELL AND MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF...12Z GFS AND ENSEMBLES THAT HAVE
A HIGH STILL OVER THE EAST COAST.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...POSSIBILITY OF FOG IN VALLEYS AND OTHER FOG PRONE AREAS.
OTHERWISE AREAS OF ISENTROPIC DESCENSION...RISING HEIGHTS AND RISING
700 MB TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE TO 10C ALLUDE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A
LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD. BELIEVE THAT OCCURS
FROM EARLY MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS WILL AGAIN REACH
THE 70S DURING THE DAY. THEN...A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A GERATER POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWESTERN MA. THIS IS
WHERE NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES AND BETTER SHEAR EXISTS.

WEDNESDAY...AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH IN THE MORNING...
EXPECT TO SEE ANY SHOWERS COME TO AN END AND DRIER AIR PUSH IN. A
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE CONTROL WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES. CLEARING SKIES AND
DRIER AIR WITH DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY...HAVE TO WATCH FOR AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THRU SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

TODAY...VFR SKY COVER WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AROUND 2000 FEET.
THE LOWER CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
DEVELOPING TSTMS AFTER NOON WITH BEST CHANCE AFTER 3 PM. BEST
CHANCE WILL BE WESTERN/NORTHERN MASS AND SOUTHERN NH. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN ANY STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS...POSSIBLY A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

TONIGHT...CONVECTION CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY NIGHT BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN FOG OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS. IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN MORNING FOG. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS STILL POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAY SEE PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS IN
THE MORNING. A WINDOW OF PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER EXPECTED
SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD. OTHERWISE ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND STORMS. SW
WINDS CONTINUE.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS FROM DEPARTING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. EVENTUAL
CHANGE FROM SW WINDS TO NW WINDS WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

TODAY...
DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AFTER
4 PM...EXCEPT AFTER 2 PM NORTH OF CAPE ANN. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE
STRONG WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS POOR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
SOUTHWEST WIND WILL GUST TO 20-22 KNOTS WHICH IS CLOSE TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS. THE PERSISTANCE OF THE WIND WILL BUILD SEAS A TAD
WITH 5 FOOT HEIGHTS MOVING INTO THE OUTER WATERS LATE IN THE DAY.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN PUT IN EFFECT ON THE OUTER WATERS
STARTING THIS EVENING. IT IS MAINLY FOR THE 5 FOOT SEAS...BUT
WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO THRESHOLD AND SO WE WILL KEEP THE HEADLINE
NON-SPECIFIC.

TONIGHT...
THE POTENTIAL FOR 5 FOOT SEAS WILL EXTEND INTO RI SOUND ON THE
SOUTHWEST WIND. GAVE SOME THOUGHT ABOUT SIMILAR POTENTIALS FOR
BLOCK ISLAND SOUND AND BUZZARDS BAY...BUT PREFERED THE BETTER
FETCH INTO RI SOUND WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN
EFFECT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS. BEST CHANCE
ON TIMING OF THE STORMS WOULD BE THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...BUT
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ANY STORMS
WOULD HAVE STRONG WIND GUSTS EARLY TONIGHT AND POOR VISIBILITY IN
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AT ANY TIME.

MONDAY...
WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. SMALL CRAFTS
WILL LINGER OVER THE OUTER WATERS DURING THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SW WINDS WILL VEER
TO NW LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...WTB/GAF
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...WTB
MARINE...WTB/NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 310749
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
349 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM HUMID FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST USA. A UPPER SHORTWAVE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES DRIVES EAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
BRINGING POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG
WINDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER TUESDAY. WARM BUT LESS HUMID WEATHER
WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH 8 AM...
WARMER MORE HUMID AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
AS OF 2 AM DEWPOINTS HAD CLIMBED INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. EXPECT
THESE VALUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH MORNING. CLOUDS ARE
FILLING IN OVER THE NORTHEAST...SO WE EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH SUNRISE.

TODAY...
BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD AREA IS SOUTHWEST OF PHILADELPHIA. THIS IS
ABOUT WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE AROUND 70. THIS MEANS A CLOUDY START TO
THE DAY...BUT POTENTIAL FOR THE SUN TO BREAK THROUGH LATER IN THE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT IN THE GREAT LAKES SUGGESTS NO FROPA TODAY. THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SUPPORTED BY AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE IS A REASONABLE SCENARIO...WITH BEST CHANCE
CLOSEST TO THE SHORTWAVE IN WESTERN/NORTHERN MASS AND IN SOUTHERN
NH.

AT THE LEAST THIS SHOULD BE A WARM VERY HUMID DAY. THE AIRMASS
WILL CONTAIN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FORECAST AT 2.0 TO 2.30 INCHES...ABOVE 2 STD DEVIATIONS AND SO
QUITE SIGNIFICANT. QUESTIONS OF THE DAY ARE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING CONVECTION. STABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS...LI AROUND -2 TO -4/TOTALS
INTO THE MID 40S. UPPER WIND FIELDS SUGGEST SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL
WITH 30 KNOTS AT 850 MB AND 40-50 KNOTS AT 500 MB.
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHEAR VALUES LOOK SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE
ORGANIZATION TO SOME TSTMS.

PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER: POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND A LOWER BUT REAL
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. FLASH FLOOD INDICES ARE ABOVE
3.5 INCHES... SO FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL BE ALONG THE LINES OF
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...
CONVECTION LINGERS INTO AT LEAST THE START OF THE NIGHT. SIGNS IN
THE MODEL DATA THAT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY LINGER OVER SOUTHEAST
MASS/RI/CT LATER AT NIGHT. THIS MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUING OVERNIGHT IN THIS AREA. NO
AIRMASS CHANGE SO IT SHOULD BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH
DEWPOINTS AROUND 70...AND SO MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND 70 OR IN
THE LOWER 70S.

MONDAY...
WARM HUMID AIRMASS LINGERS OVER THE REGION. PRECIP WATER VALUES
CONTINUE ABOVE 2 INCHES SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND 1.5 TO 2.0
INCHES NORTH. DYNAMICS WILL BE DIMINISHING...BUT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER JET FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY. WE WILL CONTINUE
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS...AND WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HEADLINES...

* HEAVY SHOWERS/T-STORMS POSSIBLE MON...TUE EVENING INTO EARLY
  WED
* BRIEF BREAK/DRY WEATHER TUESDAY
* DRYING HIGH PRESSURE WED THROUGH FRIDAY

OVERVIEW...THE OVERALL PATTERN HAS THE STATES CONTAINING A RIDGE IN
THE EAST AND A TROUGH IN THE WEST. THE BOUNDARY IN BEWTEEN SHOULD
THEN BRING IN MOISTURE ALONG A COLD FRONT. AFTER THE RAIN-CAUSING
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
FOR SATURDAY. A NEGATIVE NAO FORMS BLOCKING UP THE PATTERN LATE
WHILE A NEGATIVE PNA STAYS OVER THE UNITED STATES KEEPING THE RIDGE
OVER THE EAST COAST.

MODELS HAVE A GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST COMES INTO QUESTION
EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE ECMWF HAS A DIGGING TROUGH ON THE WEST
COAST WHEREAS THE 6Z GFS HAS MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DURING
THIS PERIOD. WITH THE QUICKER ZONAL FLOW PATTERN...THE 6Z GFS
BRINGS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF...WHICH IS
ITS NORMAL BIAS...SO HAVE LEANED AGAINST THE 6Z GFS FOR THAT
PERIOD. THE 6Z GFS IS LATER THAN THE ECMWF BRINGING THAT TROUGH
DOWN INTO THE STATES AS WELL SO EXTRA INSTABILITY IS INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT VIA THE 6Z GFS. HAVE LEANED AGAINST THAT AS
WELL AND MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF...12Z GFS AND ENSEMBLES THAT HAVE
A HIGH STILL OVER THE EAST COAST.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...POSSIBILITY OF FOG IN VALLEYS AND OTHER FOG PRONE AREAS.
OTHERWISE AREAS OF ISENTROPIC DESCENSION...RISING HEIGHTS AND RISING
700 MB TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE TO 10C ALLUDE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A
LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD. BELIEVE THAT OCCURS
FROM EARLY MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS WILL AGAIN REACH
THE 70S DURING THE DAY. THEN...A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A GERATER POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWESTERN MA. THIS IS
WHERE NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES AND BETTER SHEAR EXISTS.

WEDNESDAY...AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH IN THE MORNING...
EXPECT TO SEE ANY SHOWERS COME TO AN END AND DRIER AIR PUSH IN. A
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE CONTROL WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES. CLEARING SKIES AND
DRIER AIR WITH DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY...HAVE TO WATCH FOR AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THRU SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

TODAY...VFR SKY COVER WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AROUND 2000 FEET.
THE LOWER CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
DEVELOPING TSTMS AFTER NOON WITH BEST CHANCE AFTER 3 PM. BEST
CHANCE WILL BE WESTERN/NORTHERN MASS AND SOUTHERN NH. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN ANY STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS...POSSIBLY A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

TONIGHT...CONVECTION CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY NIGHT BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN FOG OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS. IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN MORNING FOG. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS STILL POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAY SEE PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS IN
THE MORNING. A WINDOW OF PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER EXPECTED
SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD. OTHERWISE ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND STORMS. SW
WINDS CONTINUE.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS FROM DEPARTING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. EVENTUAL
CHANGE FROM SW WINDS TO NW WINDS WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

TODAY...
DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AFTER
4 PM...EXCEPT AFTER 2 PM NORTH OF CAPE ANN. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE
STRONG WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS POOR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
SOUTHWEST WIND WILL GUST TO 20-22 KNOTS WHICH IS CLOSE TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS. THE PERSISTANCE OF THE WIND WILL BUILD SEAS A TAD
WITH 5 FOOT HEIGHTS MOVING INTO THE OUTER WATERS LATE IN THE DAY.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN PUT IN EFFECT ON THE OUTER WATERS
STARTING THIS EVENING. IT IS MAINLY FOR THE 5 FOOT SEAS...BUT
WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO THRESHOLD AND SO WE WILL KEEP THE HEADLINE
NON-SPECIFIC.

TONIGHT...
THE POTENTIAL FOR 5 FOOT SEAS WILL EXTEND INTO RI SOUND ON THE
SOUTHWEST WIND. GAVE SOME THOUGHT ABOUT SIMILAR POTENTIALS FOR
BLOCK ISLAND SOUND AND BUZZARDS BAY...BUT PREFERED THE BETTER
FETCH INTO RI SOUND WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN
EFFECT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS. BEST CHANCE
ON TIMING OF THE STORMS WOULD BE THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...BUT
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ANY STORMS
WOULD HAVE STRONG WIND GUSTS EARLY TONIGHT AND POOR VISIBILITY IN
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AT ANY TIME.

MONDAY...
WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. SMALL CRAFTS
WILL LINGER OVER THE OUTER WATERS DURING THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SW WINDS WILL VEER
TO NW LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...WTB/GAF
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...WTB
MARINE...WTB/NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 310749
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
349 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM HUMID FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST USA. A UPPER SHORTWAVE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES DRIVES EAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
BRINGING POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG
WINDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER TUESDAY. WARM BUT LESS HUMID WEATHER
WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH 8 AM...
WARMER MORE HUMID AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
AS OF 2 AM DEWPOINTS HAD CLIMBED INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. EXPECT
THESE VALUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH MORNING. CLOUDS ARE
FILLING IN OVER THE NORTHEAST...SO WE EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH SUNRISE.

TODAY...
BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD AREA IS SOUTHWEST OF PHILADELPHIA. THIS IS
ABOUT WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE AROUND 70. THIS MEANS A CLOUDY START TO
THE DAY...BUT POTENTIAL FOR THE SUN TO BREAK THROUGH LATER IN THE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT IN THE GREAT LAKES SUGGESTS NO FROPA TODAY. THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SUPPORTED BY AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE IS A REASONABLE SCENARIO...WITH BEST CHANCE
CLOSEST TO THE SHORTWAVE IN WESTERN/NORTHERN MASS AND IN SOUTHERN
NH.

AT THE LEAST THIS SHOULD BE A WARM VERY HUMID DAY. THE AIRMASS
WILL CONTAIN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FORECAST AT 2.0 TO 2.30 INCHES...ABOVE 2 STD DEVIATIONS AND SO
QUITE SIGNIFICANT. QUESTIONS OF THE DAY ARE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING CONVECTION. STABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS...LI AROUND -2 TO -4/TOTALS
INTO THE MID 40S. UPPER WIND FIELDS SUGGEST SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL
WITH 30 KNOTS AT 850 MB AND 40-50 KNOTS AT 500 MB.
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHEAR VALUES LOOK SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE
ORGANIZATION TO SOME TSTMS.

PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER: POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND A LOWER BUT REAL
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. FLASH FLOOD INDICES ARE ABOVE
3.5 INCHES... SO FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL BE ALONG THE LINES OF
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...
CONVECTION LINGERS INTO AT LEAST THE START OF THE NIGHT. SIGNS IN
THE MODEL DATA THAT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY LINGER OVER SOUTHEAST
MASS/RI/CT LATER AT NIGHT. THIS MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUING OVERNIGHT IN THIS AREA. NO
AIRMASS CHANGE SO IT SHOULD BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH
DEWPOINTS AROUND 70...AND SO MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND 70 OR IN
THE LOWER 70S.

MONDAY...
WARM HUMID AIRMASS LINGERS OVER THE REGION. PRECIP WATER VALUES
CONTINUE ABOVE 2 INCHES SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND 1.5 TO 2.0
INCHES NORTH. DYNAMICS WILL BE DIMINISHING...BUT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER JET FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY. WE WILL CONTINUE
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS...AND WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HEADLINES...

* HEAVY SHOWERS/T-STORMS POSSIBLE MON...TUE EVENING INTO EARLY
  WED
* BRIEF BREAK/DRY WEATHER TUESDAY
* DRYING HIGH PRESSURE WED THROUGH FRIDAY

OVERVIEW...THE OVERALL PATTERN HAS THE STATES CONTAINING A RIDGE IN
THE EAST AND A TROUGH IN THE WEST. THE BOUNDARY IN BEWTEEN SHOULD
THEN BRING IN MOISTURE ALONG A COLD FRONT. AFTER THE RAIN-CAUSING
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
FOR SATURDAY. A NEGATIVE NAO FORMS BLOCKING UP THE PATTERN LATE
WHILE A NEGATIVE PNA STAYS OVER THE UNITED STATES KEEPING THE RIDGE
OVER THE EAST COAST.

MODELS HAVE A GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST COMES INTO QUESTION
EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE ECMWF HAS A DIGGING TROUGH ON THE WEST
COAST WHEREAS THE 6Z GFS HAS MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DURING
THIS PERIOD. WITH THE QUICKER ZONAL FLOW PATTERN...THE 6Z GFS
BRINGS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF...WHICH IS
ITS NORMAL BIAS...SO HAVE LEANED AGAINST THE 6Z GFS FOR THAT
PERIOD. THE 6Z GFS IS LATER THAN THE ECMWF BRINGING THAT TROUGH
DOWN INTO THE STATES AS WELL SO EXTRA INSTABILITY IS INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT VIA THE 6Z GFS. HAVE LEANED AGAINST THAT AS
WELL AND MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF...12Z GFS AND ENSEMBLES THAT HAVE
A HIGH STILL OVER THE EAST COAST.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...POSSIBILITY OF FOG IN VALLEYS AND OTHER FOG PRONE AREAS.
OTHERWISE AREAS OF ISENTROPIC DESCENSION...RISING HEIGHTS AND RISING
700 MB TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE TO 10C ALLUDE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A
LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD. BELIEVE THAT OCCURS
FROM EARLY MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS WILL AGAIN REACH
THE 70S DURING THE DAY. THEN...A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A GERATER POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWESTERN MA. THIS IS
WHERE NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES AND BETTER SHEAR EXISTS.

WEDNESDAY...AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH IN THE MORNING...
EXPECT TO SEE ANY SHOWERS COME TO AN END AND DRIER AIR PUSH IN. A
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE CONTROL WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES. CLEARING SKIES AND
DRIER AIR WITH DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY...HAVE TO WATCH FOR AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THRU SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

TODAY...VFR SKY COVER WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AROUND 2000 FEET.
THE LOWER CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
DEVELOPING TSTMS AFTER NOON WITH BEST CHANCE AFTER 3 PM. BEST
CHANCE WILL BE WESTERN/NORTHERN MASS AND SOUTHERN NH. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN ANY STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS...POSSIBLY A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

TONIGHT...CONVECTION CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY NIGHT BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN FOG OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS. IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN MORNING FOG. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS STILL POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAY SEE PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS IN
THE MORNING. A WINDOW OF PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER EXPECTED
SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD. OTHERWISE ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND STORMS. SW
WINDS CONTINUE.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS FROM DEPARTING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. EVENTUAL
CHANGE FROM SW WINDS TO NW WINDS WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

TODAY...
DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AFTER
4 PM...EXCEPT AFTER 2 PM NORTH OF CAPE ANN. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE
STRONG WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS POOR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
SOUTHWEST WIND WILL GUST TO 20-22 KNOTS WHICH IS CLOSE TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS. THE PERSISTANCE OF THE WIND WILL BUILD SEAS A TAD
WITH 5 FOOT HEIGHTS MOVING INTO THE OUTER WATERS LATE IN THE DAY.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN PUT IN EFFECT ON THE OUTER WATERS
STARTING THIS EVENING. IT IS MAINLY FOR THE 5 FOOT SEAS...BUT
WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO THRESHOLD AND SO WE WILL KEEP THE HEADLINE
NON-SPECIFIC.

TONIGHT...
THE POTENTIAL FOR 5 FOOT SEAS WILL EXTEND INTO RI SOUND ON THE
SOUTHWEST WIND. GAVE SOME THOUGHT ABOUT SIMILAR POTENTIALS FOR
BLOCK ISLAND SOUND AND BUZZARDS BAY...BUT PREFERED THE BETTER
FETCH INTO RI SOUND WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN
EFFECT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS. BEST CHANCE
ON TIMING OF THE STORMS WOULD BE THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...BUT
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ANY STORMS
WOULD HAVE STRONG WIND GUSTS EARLY TONIGHT AND POOR VISIBILITY IN
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AT ANY TIME.

MONDAY...
WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. SMALL CRAFTS
WILL LINGER OVER THE OUTER WATERS DURING THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SW WINDS WILL VEER
TO NW LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...WTB/GAF
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...WTB
MARINE...WTB/NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 310749
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
349 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM HUMID FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST USA. A UPPER SHORTWAVE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES DRIVES EAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
BRINGING POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG
WINDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER TUESDAY. WARM BUT LESS HUMID WEATHER
WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH 8 AM...
WARMER MORE HUMID AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
AS OF 2 AM DEWPOINTS HAD CLIMBED INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. EXPECT
THESE VALUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH MORNING. CLOUDS ARE
FILLING IN OVER THE NORTHEAST...SO WE EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH SUNRISE.

TODAY...
BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD AREA IS SOUTHWEST OF PHILADELPHIA. THIS IS
ABOUT WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE AROUND 70. THIS MEANS A CLOUDY START TO
THE DAY...BUT POTENTIAL FOR THE SUN TO BREAK THROUGH LATER IN THE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT IN THE GREAT LAKES SUGGESTS NO FROPA TODAY. THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SUPPORTED BY AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE IS A REASONABLE SCENARIO...WITH BEST CHANCE
CLOSEST TO THE SHORTWAVE IN WESTERN/NORTHERN MASS AND IN SOUTHERN
NH.

AT THE LEAST THIS SHOULD BE A WARM VERY HUMID DAY. THE AIRMASS
WILL CONTAIN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FORECAST AT 2.0 TO 2.30 INCHES...ABOVE 2 STD DEVIATIONS AND SO
QUITE SIGNIFICANT. QUESTIONS OF THE DAY ARE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING CONVECTION. STABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS...LI AROUND -2 TO -4/TOTALS
INTO THE MID 40S. UPPER WIND FIELDS SUGGEST SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL
WITH 30 KNOTS AT 850 MB AND 40-50 KNOTS AT 500 MB.
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHEAR VALUES LOOK SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE
ORGANIZATION TO SOME TSTMS.

PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER: POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND A LOWER BUT REAL
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. FLASH FLOOD INDICES ARE ABOVE
3.5 INCHES... SO FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL BE ALONG THE LINES OF
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...
CONVECTION LINGERS INTO AT LEAST THE START OF THE NIGHT. SIGNS IN
THE MODEL DATA THAT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY LINGER OVER SOUTHEAST
MASS/RI/CT LATER AT NIGHT. THIS MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUING OVERNIGHT IN THIS AREA. NO
AIRMASS CHANGE SO IT SHOULD BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH
DEWPOINTS AROUND 70...AND SO MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND 70 OR IN
THE LOWER 70S.

MONDAY...
WARM HUMID AIRMASS LINGERS OVER THE REGION. PRECIP WATER VALUES
CONTINUE ABOVE 2 INCHES SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND 1.5 TO 2.0
INCHES NORTH. DYNAMICS WILL BE DIMINISHING...BUT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER JET FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY. WE WILL CONTINUE
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS...AND WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HEADLINES...

* HEAVY SHOWERS/T-STORMS POSSIBLE MON...TUE EVENING INTO EARLY
  WED
* BRIEF BREAK/DRY WEATHER TUESDAY
* DRYING HIGH PRESSURE WED THROUGH FRIDAY

OVERVIEW...THE OVERALL PATTERN HAS THE STATES CONTAINING A RIDGE IN
THE EAST AND A TROUGH IN THE WEST. THE BOUNDARY IN BEWTEEN SHOULD
THEN BRING IN MOISTURE ALONG A COLD FRONT. AFTER THE RAIN-CAUSING
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
FOR SATURDAY. A NEGATIVE NAO FORMS BLOCKING UP THE PATTERN LATE
WHILE A NEGATIVE PNA STAYS OVER THE UNITED STATES KEEPING THE RIDGE
OVER THE EAST COAST.

MODELS HAVE A GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST COMES INTO QUESTION
EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE ECMWF HAS A DIGGING TROUGH ON THE WEST
COAST WHEREAS THE 6Z GFS HAS MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DURING
THIS PERIOD. WITH THE QUICKER ZONAL FLOW PATTERN...THE 6Z GFS
BRINGS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF...WHICH IS
ITS NORMAL BIAS...SO HAVE LEANED AGAINST THE 6Z GFS FOR THAT
PERIOD. THE 6Z GFS IS LATER THAN THE ECMWF BRINGING THAT TROUGH
DOWN INTO THE STATES AS WELL SO EXTRA INSTABILITY IS INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT VIA THE 6Z GFS. HAVE LEANED AGAINST THAT AS
WELL AND MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF...12Z GFS AND ENSEMBLES THAT HAVE
A HIGH STILL OVER THE EAST COAST.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...POSSIBILITY OF FOG IN VALLEYS AND OTHER FOG PRONE AREAS.
OTHERWISE AREAS OF ISENTROPIC DESCENSION...RISING HEIGHTS AND RISING
700 MB TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE TO 10C ALLUDE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A
LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD. BELIEVE THAT OCCURS
FROM EARLY MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS WILL AGAIN REACH
THE 70S DURING THE DAY. THEN...A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A GERATER POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWESTERN MA. THIS IS
WHERE NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES AND BETTER SHEAR EXISTS.

WEDNESDAY...AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH IN THE MORNING...
EXPECT TO SEE ANY SHOWERS COME TO AN END AND DRIER AIR PUSH IN. A
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE CONTROL WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES. CLEARING SKIES AND
DRIER AIR WITH DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY...HAVE TO WATCH FOR AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THRU SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

TODAY...VFR SKY COVER WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AROUND 2000 FEET.
THE LOWER CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
DEVELOPING TSTMS AFTER NOON WITH BEST CHANCE AFTER 3 PM. BEST
CHANCE WILL BE WESTERN/NORTHERN MASS AND SOUTHERN NH. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN ANY STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS...POSSIBLY A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

TONIGHT...CONVECTION CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY NIGHT BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN FOG OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS. IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN MORNING FOG. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS STILL POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAY SEE PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS IN
THE MORNING. A WINDOW OF PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER EXPECTED
SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD. OTHERWISE ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND STORMS. SW
WINDS CONTINUE.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS FROM DEPARTING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. EVENTUAL
CHANGE FROM SW WINDS TO NW WINDS WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

TODAY...
DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS AFTER
4 PM...EXCEPT AFTER 2 PM NORTH OF CAPE ANN. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE
STRONG WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS POOR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
SOUTHWEST WIND WILL GUST TO 20-22 KNOTS WHICH IS CLOSE TO SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS. THE PERSISTANCE OF THE WIND WILL BUILD SEAS A TAD
WITH 5 FOOT HEIGHTS MOVING INTO THE OUTER WATERS LATE IN THE DAY.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN PUT IN EFFECT ON THE OUTER WATERS
STARTING THIS EVENING. IT IS MAINLY FOR THE 5 FOOT SEAS...BUT
WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO THRESHOLD AND SO WE WILL KEEP THE HEADLINE
NON-SPECIFIC.

TONIGHT...
THE POTENTIAL FOR 5 FOOT SEAS WILL EXTEND INTO RI SOUND ON THE
SOUTHWEST WIND. GAVE SOME THOUGHT ABOUT SIMILAR POTENTIALS FOR
BLOCK ISLAND SOUND AND BUZZARDS BAY...BUT PREFERED THE BETTER
FETCH INTO RI SOUND WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN
EFFECT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS. BEST CHANCE
ON TIMING OF THE STORMS WOULD BE THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...BUT
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ANY STORMS
WOULD HAVE STRONG WIND GUSTS EARLY TONIGHT AND POOR VISIBILITY IN
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AT ANY TIME.

MONDAY...
WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. SMALL CRAFTS
WILL LINGER OVER THE OUTER WATERS DURING THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SW WINDS WILL VEER
TO NW LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...WTB/GAF
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...WTB
MARINE...WTB/NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 310709
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
309 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM HUMID FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST USA. A UPPER SHORTWAVE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES DRIVES EAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
BRINGING POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG
WINDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER TUESDAY. WARM BUT LESS HUMID WEATHER
WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

THROUGH 8 AM...
WARMER MORE HUMID AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
AS OF 2 AM DEWPOINTS HAD CLIMBED INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. EXPECT
THESE VALUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH MORNING. CLOUDS ARE
FILLING IN OVER THE NORTHEAST...SO WE EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH SUNRISE.

TODAY...
BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD AREA IS SOUTHWEST OF PHILADELPHIA. THIS IS
ABOUT WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE AROUND 70. THIS MEANS A CLOUDY START TO
THE DAY...BUT POTENTIAL FOR THE SUN TO BREAK THROUGH LATER IN THE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT IN THE GREAT LAKES SUGGESTS NO FROPA TODAY. THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SUPPORTED BY AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE IS A REASONABLE SCENARIO...WITH BEST CHANCE
CLOSEST TO THE SHORTWAVE IN WESTERN/NORTHERN MASS AND IN SOUTHERN
NH.

AT THE LEAST THIS SHOULD BE A WARM VERY HUMID DAY. THE AIRMASS
WILL CONTAIN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FORECAST AT 2.0 TO 2.30 INCHES...ABOVE 2 STD DEVIATIONS AND SO
QUITE SIGNIFICANT. QUESTIONS OF THE DAY ARE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING CONVECTION. STABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS...LI AROUND -2 TO -4/TOTALS
INTO THE MID 40S. UPPER WIND FIELDS SUGGEST SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL
WITH 30 KNOTS AT 850 MB AND 40-50 KNOTS AT 500 MB.
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHEAR VALUES LOOK SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE
ORGANIZATION TO SOME TSTMS.

PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER: POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND A LOWER BUT REAL
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. FLASH FLOOD INDICES ARE ABOVE
3.5 INCHES... SO FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL BE ALONG THE LINES OF
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

TONIGHT...
CONVECTION LINGERS INTO AT LEAST THE START OF THE NIGHT. SIGNS IN
THE MODEL DATA THAT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY LINGER OVER SOUTHEAST
MASS/RI/CT LATER AT NIGHT. THIS MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT IN THIS AREA. NO AIRMASS
CHANGE SO IT SHOULD BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS
AROUND 70...AND SO MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND 70 OR IN THE LOWER
70S.

MONDAY...
WARM HUMID AIRMASS LINGERS OVER THE REGION. PRECIP WATER VALUES
CONTINUE ABOVE 2 INCHES SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND 1.5 TO 2.0
INCHES NORTH. DYNAMICS WILL BE DIMINISHING...BUT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER JET FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY. WE WILL CONTINUE
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS...AND WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HEADLINES...

* HEAVY SHOWERS/T-STORMS POSSIBLE MON...TUE EVENING INTO EARLY
  WED
* BRIEF BREAK/DRY WEATHER TUESDAY
* DRYING HIGH PRESSURE WED THROUGH FRIDAY

OVERVIEW...THE OVERALL PATTERN HAS THE STATES CONTAINING A RIDGE IN
THE EAST AND A TROUGH IN THE WEST. THE BOUNDARY IN BEWTEEN SHOULD
THEN BRING IN MOISTURE ALONG A COLD FRONT. AFTER THE RAIN-CAUSING
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
FOR SATURDAY. A NEGATIVE NAO FORMS BLOCKING UP THE PATTERN LATE
WHILE A NEGATIVE PNA STAYS OVER THE UNITED STATES KEEPING THE RIDGE
OVER THE EAST COAST.

MODELS HAVE A GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST COMES INTO QUESTION
EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE ECMWF HAS A DIGGING TROUGH ON THE WEST
COAST WHEREAS THE 6Z GFS HAS MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DURING
THIS PERIOD. WITH THE QUICKER ZONAL FLOW PATTERN...THE 6Z GFS
BRINGS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF...WHICH IS
ITS NORMAL BIAS...SO HAVE LEANED AGAINST THE 6Z GFS FOR THAT
PERIOD. THE 6Z GFS IS LATER THAN THE ECMWF BRINGING THAT TROUGH
DOWN INTO THE STATES AS WELL SO EXTRA INSTABILITY IS INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT VIA THE 6Z GFS. HAVE LEANED AGAINST THAT AS
WELL AND MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF...12Z GFS AND ENSEMBLES THAT HAVE
A HIGH STILL OVER THE EAST COAST.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...POSSIBILITY OF FOG IN VALLEYS AND OTHER FOG PRONE AREAS.
OTHERWISE AREAS OF ISENTROPIC DESCENSION...RISING HEIGHTS AND RISING
700 MB TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE TO 10C ALLUDE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A
LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD. BELIEVE THAT OCCURS
FROM EARLY MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS WILL AGAIN REACH
THE 70S DURING THE DAY. THEN...A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A GERATER POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWESTERN MA. THIS IS
WHERE NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES AND BETTER SHEAR EXISTS.

WEDNESDAY...AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH IN THE MORNING...
EXPECT TO SEE ANY SHOWERS COME TO AN END AND DRIER AIR PUSH IN. A
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE CONTROL WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES. CLEARING SKIES AND
DRIER AIR WITH DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY...HAVE TO WATCH FOR AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THRU SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

TODAY...VFR SKY COVER WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AROUND 2000 FEET.
THE LOWER CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
DEVELOPING TSTMS AFTER NOON WITH BEST CHANCE AFTER 3 PM. BEST
CHANCE WILL BE WESTERN/NORTHERN MASS AND SOUTHERN NH. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN ANY STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS...POSSIBLY A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

TONIGHT...CONVECTION CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY NIGHT BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN FOG OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS. IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN MORNING FOG. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS STILL POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAY SEE PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS IN
THE MORNING. A WINDOW OF PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER EXPECTED
SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD. OTHERWISE ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND STORMS. SW
WINDS CONTINUE.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS FROM DEPARTING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. EVENTUAL
CHANGE FROM SW WINDS TO NW WINDS WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...

S-SE WINDS BECOME SW OVERNIGHT. GOOD VSBY SHOULD LOWER LATER
TONIGHT PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE.

SUNDAY...

LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND DRIZZLE LIMIT VSBY EARLY BUT IMPROVING BY MIDDAY.
DRY WEATHER THEREAFTER WITH RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HOLD
OFF UNTIL AT LEAST 5 PM AND POSSIBLY UNTIL AFTER DARK. SW WIND 15-20
KT WITH A FEW GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT NEAR SHORE ESPECIALLY ACROSS CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS.

SUN NIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS DURING THE EVENING. PATCHY FOG WILL
LIMIT VSBY. SW WIND 15-20 KT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS BEGIN TO RELAX DURING THE DAY. SEAS ALSO RELAX FROM 5FT SWELL
TO AROUND 3 TO 4 FT SWELL. COULD BE NEAR SCA FOR DECAYING 5FT SWELLS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SW WINDS WILL VEER
TO NW LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...WTB/GAF
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...WTB
MARINE...NOCERA



000
FXUS61 KBOX 310709
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
309 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM HUMID FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST USA. A UPPER SHORTWAVE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES DRIVES EAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
BRINGING POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG
WINDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER TUESDAY. WARM BUT LESS HUMID WEATHER
WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

THROUGH 8 AM...
WARMER MORE HUMID AIR CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
AS OF 2 AM DEWPOINTS HAD CLIMBED INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. EXPECT
THESE VALUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH MORNING. CLOUDS ARE
FILLING IN OVER THE NORTHEAST...SO WE EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH SUNRISE.

TODAY...
BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD AREA IS SOUTHWEST OF PHILADELPHIA. THIS IS
ABOUT WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE AROUND 70. THIS MEANS A CLOUDY START TO
THE DAY...BUT POTENTIAL FOR THE SUN TO BREAK THROUGH LATER IN THE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT IN THE GREAT LAKES SUGGESTS NO FROPA TODAY. THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SUPPORTED BY AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE IS A REASONABLE SCENARIO...WITH BEST CHANCE
CLOSEST TO THE SHORTWAVE IN WESTERN/NORTHERN MASS AND IN SOUTHERN
NH.

AT THE LEAST THIS SHOULD BE A WARM VERY HUMID DAY. THE AIRMASS
WILL CONTAIN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FORECAST AT 2.0 TO 2.30 INCHES...ABOVE 2 STD DEVIATIONS AND SO
QUITE SIGNIFICANT. QUESTIONS OF THE DAY ARE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING CONVECTION. STABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS...LI AROUND -2 TO -4/TOTALS
INTO THE MID 40S. UPPER WIND FIELDS SUGGEST SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL
WITH 30 KNOTS AT 850 MB AND 40-50 KNOTS AT 500 MB.
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHEAR VALUES LOOK SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE
ORGANIZATION TO SOME TSTMS.

PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER: POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND A LOWER BUT REAL
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. FLASH FLOOD INDICES ARE ABOVE
3.5 INCHES... SO FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL BE ALONG THE LINES OF
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

TONIGHT...
CONVECTION LINGERS INTO AT LEAST THE START OF THE NIGHT. SIGNS IN
THE MODEL DATA THAT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY LINGER OVER SOUTHEAST
MASS/RI/CT LATER AT NIGHT. THIS MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT IN THIS AREA. NO AIRMASS
CHANGE SO IT SHOULD BE A WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS
AROUND 70...AND SO MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND 70 OR IN THE LOWER
70S.

MONDAY...
WARM HUMID AIRMASS LINGERS OVER THE REGION. PRECIP WATER VALUES
CONTINUE ABOVE 2 INCHES SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND 1.5 TO 2.0
INCHES NORTH. DYNAMICS WILL BE DIMINISHING...BUT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER JET FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY. WE WILL CONTINUE
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS...AND WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HEADLINES...

* HEAVY SHOWERS/T-STORMS POSSIBLE MON...TUE EVENING INTO EARLY
  WED
* BRIEF BREAK/DRY WEATHER TUESDAY
* DRYING HIGH PRESSURE WED THROUGH FRIDAY

OVERVIEW...THE OVERALL PATTERN HAS THE STATES CONTAINING A RIDGE IN
THE EAST AND A TROUGH IN THE WEST. THE BOUNDARY IN BEWTEEN SHOULD
THEN BRING IN MOISTURE ALONG A COLD FRONT. AFTER THE RAIN-CAUSING
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
FOR SATURDAY. A NEGATIVE NAO FORMS BLOCKING UP THE PATTERN LATE
WHILE A NEGATIVE PNA STAYS OVER THE UNITED STATES KEEPING THE RIDGE
OVER THE EAST COAST.

MODELS HAVE A GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST COMES INTO QUESTION
EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE ECMWF HAS A DIGGING TROUGH ON THE WEST
COAST WHEREAS THE 6Z GFS HAS MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DURING
THIS PERIOD. WITH THE QUICKER ZONAL FLOW PATTERN...THE 6Z GFS
BRINGS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF...WHICH IS
ITS NORMAL BIAS...SO HAVE LEANED AGAINST THE 6Z GFS FOR THAT
PERIOD. THE 6Z GFS IS LATER THAN THE ECMWF BRINGING THAT TROUGH
DOWN INTO THE STATES AS WELL SO EXTRA INSTABILITY IS INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT VIA THE 6Z GFS. HAVE LEANED AGAINST THAT AS
WELL AND MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF...12Z GFS AND ENSEMBLES THAT HAVE
A HIGH STILL OVER THE EAST COAST.

DAILIES...

TUESDAY...POSSIBILITY OF FOG IN VALLEYS AND OTHER FOG PRONE AREAS.
OTHERWISE AREAS OF ISENTROPIC DESCENSION...RISING HEIGHTS AND RISING
700 MB TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE TO 10C ALLUDE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A
LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD. BELIEVE THAT OCCURS
FROM EARLY MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS WILL AGAIN REACH
THE 70S DURING THE DAY. THEN...A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A GERATER POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWESTERN MA. THIS IS
WHERE NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES AND BETTER SHEAR EXISTS.

WEDNESDAY...AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH IN THE MORNING...
EXPECT TO SEE ANY SHOWERS COME TO AN END AND DRIER AIR PUSH IN. A
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE CONTROL WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES. CLEARING SKIES AND
DRIER AIR WITH DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY...HAVE TO WATCH FOR AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THRU SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

TODAY...VFR SKY COVER WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AROUND 2000 FEET.
THE LOWER CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
DEVELOPING TSTMS AFTER NOON WITH BEST CHANCE AFTER 3 PM. BEST
CHANCE WILL BE WESTERN/NORTHERN MASS AND SOUTHERN NH. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN ANY STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS...POSSIBLY A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

TONIGHT...CONVECTION CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY NIGHT BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN FOG OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS. IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN MORNING FOG. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS STILL POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAY SEE PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS IN
THE MORNING. A WINDOW OF PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER EXPECTED
SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD. OTHERWISE ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND STORMS. SW
WINDS CONTINUE.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS FROM DEPARTING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. EVENTUAL
CHANGE FROM SW WINDS TO NW WINDS WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...

S-SE WINDS BECOME SW OVERNIGHT. GOOD VSBY SHOULD LOWER LATER
TONIGHT PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE.

SUNDAY...

LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND DRIZZLE LIMIT VSBY EARLY BUT IMPROVING BY MIDDAY.
DRY WEATHER THEREAFTER WITH RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HOLD
OFF UNTIL AT LEAST 5 PM AND POSSIBLY UNTIL AFTER DARK. SW WIND 15-20
KT WITH A FEW GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT NEAR SHORE ESPECIALLY ACROSS CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS.

SUN NIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS DURING THE EVENING. PATCHY FOG WILL
LIMIT VSBY. SW WIND 15-20 KT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS BEGIN TO RELAX DURING THE DAY. SEAS ALSO RELAX FROM 5FT SWELL
TO AROUND 3 TO 4 FT SWELL. COULD BE NEAR SCA FOR DECAYING 5FT SWELLS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SW WINDS WILL VEER
TO NW LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...WTB/GAF
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...WTB
MARINE...NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 310218
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1018 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE BRINGS SOUTH WINDS TO NEW ENGLAND. THESE
WINDS WILL BRING WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND
SUNDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR. SCATTERED
ON LABOR DAY THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS CT/RI
AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER
TUESDAY. WARM BUT LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST. DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY RISE WITH VALUES EITHER SIDE OF 60. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S HAVE REACHED WESTERN NY THROUGH THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
REGION AND ARE MOVING NORTHEAST. THE INFLOW OF MOIST AIR...OVER
THE AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER US RIGHT NOW...WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT OVER OUR AREA. THE MOIST LAYER WILL BE RELATIVELY
SHALLOW BUT COULD BRING SOME FOG AND DRIZZLE LATER TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 AND TRENDING HIGHER...EXPECT MIN SFC
TEMPS TO BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
*** POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG T-STORMS SUN AFTN AND EVENING ACROSS
  NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH ***

SUNDAY...MERIDIONAL FLOW ACROSS THE MS VLY INTO THE GREAT LAKES IS
YIELDING A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PWATS +3 STD STREAMING
NORTHEAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. 12Z ECMWF MUCAPE CLIMBS TO ABOUT
1100J/KG AT 18Z SUNDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. EVEN THE LOW RES 12Z
GEFS ENSEMBLES SUGGEST 400-600J/KG OF MEAN CAPE INLAND SUN AFTN.
THUS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY ALONG WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ALONG A PREFRONTAL TROUGH TO INITIATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

0-6KM SHEAR IS INITIALLY WEAK AT 25KT 18Z SUNDAY BUT INCREASES TO 35-
45 KT BY 00Z ACROSS NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHERN NH. THUS THIS IS
SUFFICIENT FOR A LOW RISK FOR A FEW STRONG T-STORMS SUN AFTN AND
EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH.
THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING GIVEN THE ANOMALOUS PWATS /DEW PTS NEAR 70 TOO/ AND STRONG
WINDS GIVEN THE INCREASING SHEAR. GIVEN THE RECENT DRY WEATHER AND
RESULTING HIGH FFG /3.5-4" IN 6 HRS/ GREATEST RISK OF FLASH FLOODING
IS THE URBAN AREAS.

NOT EXPECTING A COMPLETE WASHOUT AS THERE WILL BE DRY PERIODS OF
WEATHER TOMORROW. ONCE MORNING FOG BURNS OFF SHOULD SEE PARTIAL
SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER FROM MID MORNING INTO AT LEAST EARLY IF NOT
MID AFTERNOON...AS CONVECTION FIRST FIRES NORTHWEST AREAS THEN
SLIDES TOWARD THE COAST BY 00Z. IT WILL BE WARMER AND MORE HUMID
THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE L80S AND DEW PTS IN THE MU60S TO AROUND
70.

SUNDAY NIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING ALONG
WITH THE THREATS OF HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLY
ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS. CONVECTION WANES AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE AND WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HEADLINES...

* HEAVY SHOWERS/T-STORMS POSSIBLE MON...TUE EVENING INTO EARLY
  WED
* BRIEF BREAK/DRY WEATHER TUESDAY
* DRYING HIGH PRESSURE WED THROUGH FRIDAY

OVERVIEW...THE OVERALL PATTERN HAS THE STATES CONTAINING A RIDGE IN
THE EAST AND A TROUGH IN THE WEST. THE BOUNDARY IN BEWTEEN SHOULD
THEN BRING IN MOISTURE ALONG A COLD FRONT. AFTER THE RAIN-CAUSING
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
FOR SATURDAY. A NEGATIVE NAO FORMS BLOCKING UP THE PATTERN LATE
WHILE A NEGATIVE PNA STAYS OVER THE UNITED STATES KEEPING THE RIDGE
OVER THE EAST COAST.

MODELS HAVE A GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST COMES INTO QUESTION
EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE ECMWF HAS A DIGGING TROUGH ON THE WEST
COAST WHEREAS THE 6Z GFS HAS MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DURING
THIS PERIOD. WITH THE QUICKER ZONAL FLOW PATTERN...THE 6Z GFS
BRINGS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF...WHICH IS
ITS NORMAL BIAS...SO HAVE LEANED AGAINST THE 6Z GFS FOR THAT
PERIOD. THE 6Z GFS IS LATER THAN THE ECMWF BRINGING THAT TROUGH
DOWN INTO THE STATES AS WELL SO EXTRA INSTABILITY IS INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT VIA THE 6Z GFS. HAVE LEANED AGAINST THAT AS
WELL AND MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF...12Z GFS AND ENSEMBLES THAT HAVE
A HIGH STILL OVER THE EAST COAST.

DAILIES...

MONDAY...SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWEST
FLOW. THIS ALLOWS FOR PRECIPITATION AND WEAK INSTABILITY AS SHOWN BY
PWATS 2 TO 3 SDS ABOVE NORMAL AND K-INDEX ABOVE 30 IN SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. MUCAPE IS ONLY JUST ABOVE 1000 J/KG. THE LOW
LEVEL JET WILL BE DEPARTING THE REGION TO THE SOUTH SO SHEAR SHOULD
STAY LOW HOWEVER WITH DECREASING 500 MB TEMPS CAN/T RULE OUT SOME
CONVECTION. DEW POINTS WILL ALSO REACH THE 70S SO HUMIDITY WILL BE
TROPICAL IN NATURE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FLOODING...BUT REGION HAS
BEEN DRY FOR A WHILE SO LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BE THE ONLY TYPE THAT
IS OBSERVED.

TUESDAY...POSSIBILITY OF FOG IN VALLEYS AND OTHER FOG PRONE AREAS.
OTHERWISE AREAS OF ISENTROPIC DESCENSION...RISING HEIGHTS AND RISING
700 MB TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE TO 10C ALLUDE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A
LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD. BELIEVE THAT OCCURS
FROM EARLY MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS WILL AGAIN REACH
THE 70S DURING THE DAY. THEN...A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A GERATER POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWESTERN MA. THIS IS
WHERE NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES AND BETTER SHEAR EXISTS.

WEDNESDAY...AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH IN THE MORNING...
EXPECT TO SEE ANY SHOWERS COME TO AN END AND DRIER AIR PUSH IN. A
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE CONTROL WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES. CLEARING SKIES AND
DRIER AIR WITH DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY...HAVE TO WATCH FOR AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THRU SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OVERNIGHT...VFR TO START. INCREASING SKY COVER WITH CIGS LOWERING
TO MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT. MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE
AFTER 2 AM.

SUNDAY...MARGINAL MVFR-VFR. SHRA AND TSRA DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z
WEST AND THEN SLIDING EAST TOWARD 00Z. ACTIVITY MOST WIDESPREAD
ACROSS NORTHWEST CT-MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH. A FEW STRONG STORMS
POSSIBLE WITH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR DURING THE EVENING SLIPPING TO IFR. SHRA AND
TSRA ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WIND.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN AREAS OF SHOWERS. POSSIBLE TSRA ESPECIALLY
INLAND. SW WINDS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAY SEE PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS IN
THE MORNING. A WINDOW OF PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER EXPECTED
SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD. OTHERWISE ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND STORMS. SW
WINDS CONTINUE.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS FROM DEPARTING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. EVENTUAL
CHANGE FROM SW WINDS TO NW WINDS WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...

S-SE WINDS BECOME SW OVERNIGHT. GOOD VSBY SHOULD LOWER LATER
TONIGHT PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE.

SUNDAY...

LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND DRIZZLE LIMIT VSBY EARLY BUT IMPROVING BY MIDDAY.
DRY WEATHER THEREAFTER WITH RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HOLD
OFF UNTIL AT LEAST 5 PM AND POSSIBLY UNTIL AFTER DARK. SW WIND 15-20
KT WITH A FEW GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT NEAR SHORE ESPECIALLY ACROSS CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS.

SUN NIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS DURING THE EVENING. PATCHY FOG WILL
LIMIT VSBY. SW WIND 15-20 KT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS BEGIN TO RELAX DURING THE DAY. SEAS ALSO RELAX FROM 5FT SWELL
TO AROUND 3 TO 4 FT SWELL. COULD BE NEAR SCA FOR DECAYING 5FT SWELLS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SW WINDS WILL VEER
TO NW LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...WTB/GAF
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA
MARINE...NOCERA



000
FXUS61 KBOX 310218
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1018 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE BRINGS SOUTH WINDS TO NEW ENGLAND. THESE
WINDS WILL BRING WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND
SUNDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR. SCATTERED
ON LABOR DAY THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS CT/RI
AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER
TUESDAY. WARM BUT LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR MID
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST. DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY RISE WITH VALUES EITHER SIDE OF 60. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S HAVE REACHED WESTERN NY THROUGH THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
REGION AND ARE MOVING NORTHEAST. THE INFLOW OF MOIST AIR...OVER
THE AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER US RIGHT NOW...WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT OVER OUR AREA. THE MOIST LAYER WILL BE RELATIVELY
SHALLOW BUT COULD BRING SOME FOG AND DRIZZLE LATER TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 AND TRENDING HIGHER...EXPECT MIN SFC
TEMPS TO BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
*** POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG T-STORMS SUN AFTN AND EVENING ACROSS
  NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH ***

SUNDAY...MERIDIONAL FLOW ACROSS THE MS VLY INTO THE GREAT LAKES IS
YIELDING A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PWATS +3 STD STREAMING
NORTHEAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. 12Z ECMWF MUCAPE CLIMBS TO ABOUT
1100J/KG AT 18Z SUNDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. EVEN THE LOW RES 12Z
GEFS ENSEMBLES SUGGEST 400-600J/KG OF MEAN CAPE INLAND SUN AFTN.
THUS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY ALONG WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ALONG A PREFRONTAL TROUGH TO INITIATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

0-6KM SHEAR IS INITIALLY WEAK AT 25KT 18Z SUNDAY BUT INCREASES TO 35-
45 KT BY 00Z ACROSS NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHERN NH. THUS THIS IS
SUFFICIENT FOR A LOW RISK FOR A FEW STRONG T-STORMS SUN AFTN AND
EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH.
THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING GIVEN THE ANOMALOUS PWATS /DEW PTS NEAR 70 TOO/ AND STRONG
WINDS GIVEN THE INCREASING SHEAR. GIVEN THE RECENT DRY WEATHER AND
RESULTING HIGH FFG /3.5-4" IN 6 HRS/ GREATEST RISK OF FLASH FLOODING
IS THE URBAN AREAS.

NOT EXPECTING A COMPLETE WASHOUT AS THERE WILL BE DRY PERIODS OF
WEATHER TOMORROW. ONCE MORNING FOG BURNS OFF SHOULD SEE PARTIAL
SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER FROM MID MORNING INTO AT LEAST EARLY IF NOT
MID AFTERNOON...AS CONVECTION FIRST FIRES NORTHWEST AREAS THEN
SLIDES TOWARD THE COAST BY 00Z. IT WILL BE WARMER AND MORE HUMID
THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE L80S AND DEW PTS IN THE MU60S TO AROUND
70.

SUNDAY NIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING ALONG
WITH THE THREATS OF HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLY
ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS. CONVECTION WANES AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE AND WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HEADLINES...

* HEAVY SHOWERS/T-STORMS POSSIBLE MON...TUE EVENING INTO EARLY
  WED
* BRIEF BREAK/DRY WEATHER TUESDAY
* DRYING HIGH PRESSURE WED THROUGH FRIDAY

OVERVIEW...THE OVERALL PATTERN HAS THE STATES CONTAINING A RIDGE IN
THE EAST AND A TROUGH IN THE WEST. THE BOUNDARY IN BEWTEEN SHOULD
THEN BRING IN MOISTURE ALONG A COLD FRONT. AFTER THE RAIN-CAUSING
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
FOR SATURDAY. A NEGATIVE NAO FORMS BLOCKING UP THE PATTERN LATE
WHILE A NEGATIVE PNA STAYS OVER THE UNITED STATES KEEPING THE RIDGE
OVER THE EAST COAST.

MODELS HAVE A GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST COMES INTO QUESTION
EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE ECMWF HAS A DIGGING TROUGH ON THE WEST
COAST WHEREAS THE 6Z GFS HAS MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DURING
THIS PERIOD. WITH THE QUICKER ZONAL FLOW PATTERN...THE 6Z GFS
BRINGS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF...WHICH IS
ITS NORMAL BIAS...SO HAVE LEANED AGAINST THE 6Z GFS FOR THAT
PERIOD. THE 6Z GFS IS LATER THAN THE ECMWF BRINGING THAT TROUGH
DOWN INTO THE STATES AS WELL SO EXTRA INSTABILITY IS INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT VIA THE 6Z GFS. HAVE LEANED AGAINST THAT AS
WELL AND MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF...12Z GFS AND ENSEMBLES THAT HAVE
A HIGH STILL OVER THE EAST COAST.

DAILIES...

MONDAY...SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWEST
FLOW. THIS ALLOWS FOR PRECIPITATION AND WEAK INSTABILITY AS SHOWN BY
PWATS 2 TO 3 SDS ABOVE NORMAL AND K-INDEX ABOVE 30 IN SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. MUCAPE IS ONLY JUST ABOVE 1000 J/KG. THE LOW
LEVEL JET WILL BE DEPARTING THE REGION TO THE SOUTH SO SHEAR SHOULD
STAY LOW HOWEVER WITH DECREASING 500 MB TEMPS CAN/T RULE OUT SOME
CONVECTION. DEW POINTS WILL ALSO REACH THE 70S SO HUMIDITY WILL BE
TROPICAL IN NATURE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FLOODING...BUT REGION HAS
BEEN DRY FOR A WHILE SO LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BE THE ONLY TYPE THAT
IS OBSERVED.

TUESDAY...POSSIBILITY OF FOG IN VALLEYS AND OTHER FOG PRONE AREAS.
OTHERWISE AREAS OF ISENTROPIC DESCENSION...RISING HEIGHTS AND RISING
700 MB TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE TO 10C ALLUDE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A
LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD. BELIEVE THAT OCCURS
FROM EARLY MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS WILL AGAIN REACH
THE 70S DURING THE DAY. THEN...A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A GERATER POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWESTERN MA. THIS IS
WHERE NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES AND BETTER SHEAR EXISTS.

WEDNESDAY...AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH IN THE MORNING...
EXPECT TO SEE ANY SHOWERS COME TO AN END AND DRIER AIR PUSH IN. A
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE CONTROL WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES. CLEARING SKIES AND
DRIER AIR WITH DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY...HAVE TO WATCH FOR AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THRU SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OVERNIGHT...VFR TO START. INCREASING SKY COVER WITH CIGS LOWERING
TO MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT. MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE
AFTER 2 AM.

SUNDAY...MARGINAL MVFR-VFR. SHRA AND TSRA DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z
WEST AND THEN SLIDING EAST TOWARD 00Z. ACTIVITY MOST WIDESPREAD
ACROSS NORTHWEST CT-MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH. A FEW STRONG STORMS
POSSIBLE WITH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR DURING THE EVENING SLIPPING TO IFR. SHRA AND
TSRA ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WIND.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN AREAS OF SHOWERS. POSSIBLE TSRA ESPECIALLY
INLAND. SW WINDS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAY SEE PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS IN
THE MORNING. A WINDOW OF PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER EXPECTED
SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD. OTHERWISE ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND STORMS. SW
WINDS CONTINUE.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS FROM DEPARTING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. EVENTUAL
CHANGE FROM SW WINDS TO NW WINDS WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...

S-SE WINDS BECOME SW OVERNIGHT. GOOD VSBY SHOULD LOWER LATER
TONIGHT PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE.

SUNDAY...

LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND DRIZZLE LIMIT VSBY EARLY BUT IMPROVING BY MIDDAY.
DRY WEATHER THEREAFTER WITH RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HOLD
OFF UNTIL AT LEAST 5 PM AND POSSIBLY UNTIL AFTER DARK. SW WIND 15-20
KT WITH A FEW GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT NEAR SHORE ESPECIALLY ACROSS CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS.

SUN NIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS DURING THE EVENING. PATCHY FOG WILL
LIMIT VSBY. SW WIND 15-20 KT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS BEGIN TO RELAX DURING THE DAY. SEAS ALSO RELAX FROM 5FT SWELL
TO AROUND 3 TO 4 FT SWELL. COULD BE NEAR SCA FOR DECAYING 5FT SWELLS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SW WINDS WILL VEER
TO NW LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...WTB/GAF
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA
MARINE...NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 302339
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
739 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND HUMID CONDITIONS DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY
OVER THE INTERIOR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FOCUSED
ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE LABOR DAY. A PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER FOLLOWS TUE BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE TUE EVENING AND NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA. WARM BUT LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR MID WEEK BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
730 PM UPDATE...

NO CHANGES TO NEAR-TERM FORECAST. DEWPOINTS ARE SLOWLY
INCREASING...ESPECIALLY TO OUR WEST. A QUICK LOOK AT THE LATEST
GFS FOR TOMORROW SHOWS A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW AND MID LEVEL HELICITY
OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SO...EVEN WITH A
LOT OF CLOUDINESS...COULD HAVE A FEW STRONG STORMS DEVELOP AS
DISCUSSED MORE IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION BELOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TRANQUIL EVENING AHEAD WITH DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE TEMPS AND
DEW PTS. A MODEST S TO SE WIND OF 10-20 MPH WILL DIMINISH WITH
SUNSET. WARM FRONT BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS PA/VA/WVA. THIS
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SO WHILE DIURNAL STRATO-CU
WILL LIKELY ERODE WITH SUNSET...CLOUDS ALONG AND AHEAD OF DEVELOPING
WARM FRONT WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS EVENING.
MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE FAIRLY SHALLOW WITH THIS FEATURE SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY PRECIP OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG.

GIVEN THE ONSHORE WINDS...INCREASING DEW PTS AND INCREASING CLOUD
COVER OVERNIGHT NOT NEARLY AS COOL AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS. LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE 60S REGIONWIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
*** POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG T-STORMS SUN AFTN AND EVENING ACROSS
  NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH ***

SUNDAY...MERIDIONAL FLOW ACROSS THE MS VLY INTO THE GREAT LAKES IS
YIELDING A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PWATS +3 STD STREAMING
NORTHEAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. 12Z ECMWF MUCAPE CLIMBS TO ABOUT
1100J/KG AT 18Z SUNDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. EVEN THE LOW RES 12Z
GEFS ENSEMBLES SUGGEST 400-600J/KG OF MEAN CAPE INLAND SUN AFTN.
THUS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY ALONG WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ALONG A PREFRONTAL TROUGH TO INITIATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

0-6KM SHEAR IS INITIALLY WEAK AT 25KT 18Z SUNDAY BUT INCREASES TO 35-
45 KT BY 00Z ACROSS NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHERN NH. THUS THIS IS
SUFFICIENT FOR A LOW RISK FOR A FEW STRONG T-STORMS SUN AFTN AND
EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH.
THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING GIVEN THE ANOMALOUS PWATS /DEW PTS NEAR 70 TOO/ AND STRONG
WINDS GIVEN THE INCREASING SHEAR. GIVEN THE RECENT DRY WEATHER AND
RESULTING HIGH FFG /3.5-4" IN 6 HRS/ GREATEST RISK OF FLASH FLOODING
IS THE URBAN AREAS.

NOT EXPECTING A COMPLETE WASHOUT AS THERE WILL BE DRY PERIODS OF
WEATHER TOMORROW. ONCE MORNING FOG BURNS OFF SHOULD SEE PARTIAL
SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER FROM MID MORNING INTO AT LEAST EARLY IF NOT
MID AFTERNOON...AS CONVECTION FIRST FIRES NORTHWEST AREAS THEN
SLIDES TOWARD THE COAST BY 00Z. IT WILL BE WARMER AND MORE HUMID
THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE L80S AND DEW PTS IN THE MU60S TO AROUND
70.

SUNDAY NIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING ALONG
WITH THE THREATS OF HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLY
ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS. CONVECTION WANES AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE AND WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HEADLINES...

* HEAVY SHOWERS/T-STORMS POSSIBLE MON...TUE EVENING INTO EARLY
  WED
* BRIEF BREAK/DRY WEATHER TUESDAY
* DRYING HIGH PRESSURE WED THROUGH FRIDAY

OVERVIEW...THE OVERALL PATTERN HAS THE STATES CONTAINING A RIDGE IN
THE EAST AND A TROUGH IN THE WEST. THE BOUNDARY IN BEWTEEN SHOULD
THEN BRING IN MOISTURE ALONG A COLD FRONT. AFTER THE RAIN-CAUSING
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
FOR SATURDAY. A NEGATIVE NAO FORMS BLOCKING UP THE PATTERN LATE
WHILE A NEGATIVE PNA STAYS OVER THE UNITED STATES KEEPING THE RIDGE
OVER THE EAST COAST.

MODELS HAVE A GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST COMES INTO QUESTION
EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE ECMWF HAS A DIGGING TROUGH ON THE WEST
COAST WHEREAS THE 6Z GFS HAS MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DURING
THIS PERIOD. WITH THE QUICKER ZONAL FLOW PATTERN...THE 6Z GFS
BRINGS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF...WHICH IS
ITS NORMAL BIAS...SO HAVE LEANED AGAINST THE 6Z GFS FOR THAT
PERIOD. THE 6Z GFS IS LATER THAN THE ECMWF BRINGING THAT TROUGH
DOWN INTO THE STATES AS WELL SO EXTRA INSTABILITY IS INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT VIA THE 6Z GFS. HAVE LEANED AGAINST THAT AS
WELL AND MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF...12Z GFS AND ENSEMBLES THAT HAVE
A HIGH STILL OVER THE EAST COAST.

DAILIES...

MONDAY...SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWEST
FLOW. THIS ALLOWS FOR PRECIPITATION AND WEAK INSTABILITY AS SHOWN BY
PWATS 2 TO 3 SDS ABOVE NORMAL AND K-INDEX ABOVE 30 IN SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. MUCAPE IS ONLY JUST ABOVE 1000 J/KG. THE LOW
LEVEL JET WILL BE DEPARTING THE REGION TO THE SOUTH SO SHEAR SHOULD
STAY LOW HOWEVER WITH DECREASING 500 MB TEMPS CAN/T RULE OUT SOME
CONVECTION. DEW POINTS WILL ALSO REACH THE 70S SO HUMIDITY WILL BE
TROPICAL IN NATURE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FLOODING...BUT REGION HAS
BEEN DRY FOR A WHILE SO LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BE THE ONLY TYPE THAT
IS OBSERVED.

TUESDAY...POSSIBILITY OF FOG IN VALLEYS AND OTHER FOG PRONE AREAS.
OTHERWISE AREAS OF ISENTROPIC DESCENSION...RISING HEIGHTS AND RISING
700 MB TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE TO 10C ALLUDE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A
LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD. BELIEVE THAT OCCURS
FROM EARLY MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS WILL AGAIN REACH
THE 70S DURING THE DAY. THEN...A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A GERATER POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWESTERN MA. THIS IS
WHERE NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES AND BETTER SHEAR EXISTS.

WEDNESDAY...AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH IN THE MORNING...
EXPECT TO SEE ANY SHOWERS COME TO AN END AND DRIER AIR PUSH IN. A
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE CONTROL WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES. CLEARING SKIES AND
DRIER AIR WITH DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY...HAVE TO WATCH FOR AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THRU SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

AFTER 00Z...VFR TO START THEN LOWERING TO MVFR CIGS BEGINNING
03Z-06Z FOLLOWED BY MVFR VSBYS LATER IN PATCHY FOG.

SUNDAY...MARGINAL MVFR-VFR. SHRA AND TSRA DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z
WEST AND THEN SLIDING EAST TOWARD 00Z. ACTIVITY MOST WIDESPREAD
ACROSS NORTHWEST CT-MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH. A FEW STRONG STORMS
POSSIBLE WITH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR DURING THE EVENING SLIPPING TO IFR. SHRA AND
TSRA ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WIND.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN AREAS OF SHOWERS. POSSIBLE TSRA ESPECIALLY
INLAND. SW WINDS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAY SEE PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS IN
THE MORNING. A WINDOW OF PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER EXPECTED
SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD. OTHERWISE ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND STORMS. SW
WINDS CONTINUE.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS FROM DEPARTING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. EVENTUAL
CHANGE FROM SW WINDS TO NW WINDS WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...

S-SE WINDS BECOME SW OVERNIGHT. GOOD VSBY THIS EVENING BUT LOWERING
LATE IN PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE.

SUNDAY...

LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND DRIZZLE LIMIT VSBY EARLY BUT IMPROVING BY MIDDAY.
DRY WEATHER THEREAFTER WITH RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HOLD
OFF UNTIL AT LEAST 5 PM AND POSSIBLY UNTIL AFTER DARK. SW WIND 15-20
KT WITH A FEW GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT NEAR SHORE ESPECIALLY ACROSS CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS.

SUN NIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS DURING THE EVENING. PATCHY FOG WILL
LIMIT VSBY. SW WIND 15-20 KT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS BEGIN TO RELAX DURING THE DAY. SEAS ALSO RELAX FROM 5FT SWELL
TO AROUND 3 TO 4 FT SWELL. COULD BE NEAR SCA FOR DECAYING 5FT SWELLS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SW WINDS WILL VEER
TO NW LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/FIELD
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA
MARINE...NOCERA



000
FXUS61 KBOX 302339
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
739 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND HUMID CONDITIONS DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY
OVER THE INTERIOR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FOCUSED
ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE LABOR DAY. A PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER FOLLOWS TUE BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE TUE EVENING AND NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA. WARM BUT LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR MID WEEK BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
730 PM UPDATE...

NO CHANGES TO NEAR-TERM FORECAST. DEWPOINTS ARE SLOWLY
INCREASING...ESPECIALLY TO OUR WEST. A QUICK LOOK AT THE LATEST
GFS FOR TOMORROW SHOWS A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW AND MID LEVEL HELICITY
OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SO...EVEN WITH A
LOT OF CLOUDINESS...COULD HAVE A FEW STRONG STORMS DEVELOP AS
DISCUSSED MORE IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION BELOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TRANQUIL EVENING AHEAD WITH DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE TEMPS AND
DEW PTS. A MODEST S TO SE WIND OF 10-20 MPH WILL DIMINISH WITH
SUNSET. WARM FRONT BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS PA/VA/WVA. THIS
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SO WHILE DIURNAL STRATO-CU
WILL LIKELY ERODE WITH SUNSET...CLOUDS ALONG AND AHEAD OF DEVELOPING
WARM FRONT WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS EVENING.
MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE FAIRLY SHALLOW WITH THIS FEATURE SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY PRECIP OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG.

GIVEN THE ONSHORE WINDS...INCREASING DEW PTS AND INCREASING CLOUD
COVER OVERNIGHT NOT NEARLY AS COOL AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS. LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE 60S REGIONWIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
*** POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG T-STORMS SUN AFTN AND EVENING ACROSS
  NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH ***

SUNDAY...MERIDIONAL FLOW ACROSS THE MS VLY INTO THE GREAT LAKES IS
YIELDING A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PWATS +3 STD STREAMING
NORTHEAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. 12Z ECMWF MUCAPE CLIMBS TO ABOUT
1100J/KG AT 18Z SUNDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. EVEN THE LOW RES 12Z
GEFS ENSEMBLES SUGGEST 400-600J/KG OF MEAN CAPE INLAND SUN AFTN.
THUS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY ALONG WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ALONG A PREFRONTAL TROUGH TO INITIATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

0-6KM SHEAR IS INITIALLY WEAK AT 25KT 18Z SUNDAY BUT INCREASES TO 35-
45 KT BY 00Z ACROSS NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHERN NH. THUS THIS IS
SUFFICIENT FOR A LOW RISK FOR A FEW STRONG T-STORMS SUN AFTN AND
EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH.
THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING GIVEN THE ANOMALOUS PWATS /DEW PTS NEAR 70 TOO/ AND STRONG
WINDS GIVEN THE INCREASING SHEAR. GIVEN THE RECENT DRY WEATHER AND
RESULTING HIGH FFG /3.5-4" IN 6 HRS/ GREATEST RISK OF FLASH FLOODING
IS THE URBAN AREAS.

NOT EXPECTING A COMPLETE WASHOUT AS THERE WILL BE DRY PERIODS OF
WEATHER TOMORROW. ONCE MORNING FOG BURNS OFF SHOULD SEE PARTIAL
SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER FROM MID MORNING INTO AT LEAST EARLY IF NOT
MID AFTERNOON...AS CONVECTION FIRST FIRES NORTHWEST AREAS THEN
SLIDES TOWARD THE COAST BY 00Z. IT WILL BE WARMER AND MORE HUMID
THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE L80S AND DEW PTS IN THE MU60S TO AROUND
70.

SUNDAY NIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING ALONG
WITH THE THREATS OF HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLY
ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS. CONVECTION WANES AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE AND WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HEADLINES...

* HEAVY SHOWERS/T-STORMS POSSIBLE MON...TUE EVENING INTO EARLY
  WED
* BRIEF BREAK/DRY WEATHER TUESDAY
* DRYING HIGH PRESSURE WED THROUGH FRIDAY

OVERVIEW...THE OVERALL PATTERN HAS THE STATES CONTAINING A RIDGE IN
THE EAST AND A TROUGH IN THE WEST. THE BOUNDARY IN BEWTEEN SHOULD
THEN BRING IN MOISTURE ALONG A COLD FRONT. AFTER THE RAIN-CAUSING
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
FOR SATURDAY. A NEGATIVE NAO FORMS BLOCKING UP THE PATTERN LATE
WHILE A NEGATIVE PNA STAYS OVER THE UNITED STATES KEEPING THE RIDGE
OVER THE EAST COAST.

MODELS HAVE A GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST COMES INTO QUESTION
EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE ECMWF HAS A DIGGING TROUGH ON THE WEST
COAST WHEREAS THE 6Z GFS HAS MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DURING
THIS PERIOD. WITH THE QUICKER ZONAL FLOW PATTERN...THE 6Z GFS
BRINGS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF...WHICH IS
ITS NORMAL BIAS...SO HAVE LEANED AGAINST THE 6Z GFS FOR THAT
PERIOD. THE 6Z GFS IS LATER THAN THE ECMWF BRINGING THAT TROUGH
DOWN INTO THE STATES AS WELL SO EXTRA INSTABILITY IS INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT VIA THE 6Z GFS. HAVE LEANED AGAINST THAT AS
WELL AND MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF...12Z GFS AND ENSEMBLES THAT HAVE
A HIGH STILL OVER THE EAST COAST.

DAILIES...

MONDAY...SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWEST
FLOW. THIS ALLOWS FOR PRECIPITATION AND WEAK INSTABILITY AS SHOWN BY
PWATS 2 TO 3 SDS ABOVE NORMAL AND K-INDEX ABOVE 30 IN SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. MUCAPE IS ONLY JUST ABOVE 1000 J/KG. THE LOW
LEVEL JET WILL BE DEPARTING THE REGION TO THE SOUTH SO SHEAR SHOULD
STAY LOW HOWEVER WITH DECREASING 500 MB TEMPS CAN/T RULE OUT SOME
CONVECTION. DEW POINTS WILL ALSO REACH THE 70S SO HUMIDITY WILL BE
TROPICAL IN NATURE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FLOODING...BUT REGION HAS
BEEN DRY FOR A WHILE SO LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BE THE ONLY TYPE THAT
IS OBSERVED.

TUESDAY...POSSIBILITY OF FOG IN VALLEYS AND OTHER FOG PRONE AREAS.
OTHERWISE AREAS OF ISENTROPIC DESCENSION...RISING HEIGHTS AND RISING
700 MB TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE TO 10C ALLUDE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A
LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD. BELIEVE THAT OCCURS
FROM EARLY MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS WILL AGAIN REACH
THE 70S DURING THE DAY. THEN...A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A GERATER POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWESTERN MA. THIS IS
WHERE NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES AND BETTER SHEAR EXISTS.

WEDNESDAY...AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH IN THE MORNING...
EXPECT TO SEE ANY SHOWERS COME TO AN END AND DRIER AIR PUSH IN. A
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE CONTROL WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES. CLEARING SKIES AND
DRIER AIR WITH DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY...HAVE TO WATCH FOR AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THRU SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

AFTER 00Z...VFR TO START THEN LOWERING TO MVFR CIGS BEGINNING
03Z-06Z FOLLOWED BY MVFR VSBYS LATER IN PATCHY FOG.

SUNDAY...MARGINAL MVFR-VFR. SHRA AND TSRA DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z
WEST AND THEN SLIDING EAST TOWARD 00Z. ACTIVITY MOST WIDESPREAD
ACROSS NORTHWEST CT-MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH. A FEW STRONG STORMS
POSSIBLE WITH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR DURING THE EVENING SLIPPING TO IFR. SHRA AND
TSRA ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WIND.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN AREAS OF SHOWERS. POSSIBLE TSRA ESPECIALLY
INLAND. SW WINDS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAY SEE PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS IN
THE MORNING. A WINDOW OF PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER EXPECTED
SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD. OTHERWISE ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND STORMS. SW
WINDS CONTINUE.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS FROM DEPARTING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. EVENTUAL
CHANGE FROM SW WINDS TO NW WINDS WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...

S-SE WINDS BECOME SW OVERNIGHT. GOOD VSBY THIS EVENING BUT LOWERING
LATE IN PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE.

SUNDAY...

LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND DRIZZLE LIMIT VSBY EARLY BUT IMPROVING BY MIDDAY.
DRY WEATHER THEREAFTER WITH RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HOLD
OFF UNTIL AT LEAST 5 PM AND POSSIBLY UNTIL AFTER DARK. SW WIND 15-20
KT WITH A FEW GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT NEAR SHORE ESPECIALLY ACROSS CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS.

SUN NIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS DURING THE EVENING. PATCHY FOG WILL
LIMIT VSBY. SW WIND 15-20 KT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS BEGIN TO RELAX DURING THE DAY. SEAS ALSO RELAX FROM 5FT SWELL
TO AROUND 3 TO 4 FT SWELL. COULD BE NEAR SCA FOR DECAYING 5FT SWELLS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SW WINDS WILL VEER
TO NW LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/FIELD
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA
MARINE...NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 302019
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
419 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND HUMID CONDITIONS DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY
OVER THE INTERIOR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FOCUSED
ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE LABOR DAY. A PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER FOLLOWS TUE BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE TUE EVENING AND NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA. WARM BUT LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR MID WEEK BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

4 PM UPDATE...

TRANQUIL EVENING AHEAD WITH DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE TEMPS AND
DEW PTS. A MODEST S TO SE WIND OF 10-20 MPH WILL DIMINISH WITH
SUNSET. WARM FRONT BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS PA/VA/WVA. THIS
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SO WHILE DIURNAL STRATO-CU
WILL LIKELY ERODE WITH SUNSET...CLOUDS ALONG AND AHEAD OF DEVELOPING
WARM FRONT WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS EVENING.
MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE FAIRLY SHALLOW WITH THIS FEATURE SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY PRECIP OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG.

GIVEN THE ONSHORE WINDS...INCREASING DEW PTS AND INCREASING CLOUD
COVER OVERNIGHT NOT NEARLY AS COOL AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS. LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE 60S REGIONWIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

*** POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG T-STORMS SUN AFTN AND EVENING ACROSS
  NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH ***

SUNDAY...MERIDIONAL FLOW ACROSS THE MS VLY INTO THE GREAT LAKES IS
YIELDING A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PWATS +3 STD STREAMING
NORTHEAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. 12Z ECMWF MUCAPE CLIMBS TO ABOUT
1100J/KG AT 18Z SUNDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. EVEN THE LOW RES 12Z
GEFS ENSEMBLES SUGGEST 400-600J/KG OF MEAN CAPE INLAND SUN AFTN.
THUS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY ALONG WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ALONG A PREFRONTAL TROUGH TO INITIATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

0-6KM SHEAR IS INITIALLY WEAK AT 25KT 18Z SUNDAY BUT INCREASES TO 35-
45 KT BY 00Z ACROSS NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHERN NH. THUS THIS IS
SUFFICIENT FOR A LOW RISK FOR A FEW STRONG T-STORMS SUN AFTN AND
EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH.
THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING GIVEN THE ANOMALOUS PWATS /DEW PTS NEAR 70 TOO/ AND STRONG
WINDS GIVEN THE INCREASING SHEAR. GIVEN THE RECENT DRY WEATHER AND
RESULTING HIGH FFG /3.5-4" IN 6 HRS/ GREATEST RISK OF FLASH FLOODING
IS THE URBAN AREAS.

NOT EXPECTING A COMPLETE WASHOUT AS THERE WILL BE DRY PERIODS OF
WEATHER TOMORROW. ONCE MORNING FOG BURNS OFF SHOULD SEE PARTIAL
SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER FROM MID MORNING INTO AT LEAST EARLY IF NOT
MID AFTERNOON...AS CONVECTION FIRST FIRES NORTHWEST AREAS THEN
SLIDES TOWARD THE COAST BY 00Z. IT WILL BE WARMER AND MORE HUMID
THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE L80S AND DEW PTS IN THE MU60S TO AROUND
70.

SUNDAY NIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING ALONG
WITH THE THREATS OF HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLY
ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS. CONVECTION WANES AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE AND WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HEADLINES...

* HEAVY SHOWERS/T-STORMS POSSIBLE MON...TUE EVENING INTO EARLY
  WED
* BRIEF BREAK/DRY WEATHER TUESDAY
* DRYING HIGH PRESSURE WED THROUGH FRIDAY

OVERVIEW...THE OVERALL PATTERN HAS THE STATES CONTAINING A RIDGE IN
THE EAST AND A TROUGH IN THE WEST. THE BOUNDARY IN BEWTEEN SHOULD
THEN BRING IN MOISTURE ALONG A COLD FRONT. AFTER THE RAIN-CAUSING
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
FOR SATURDAY. A NEGATIVE NAO FORMS BLOCKING UP THE PATTERN LATE
WHILE A NEGATIVE PNA STAYS OVER THE UNITED STATES KEEPING THE RIDGE
OVER THE EAST COAST.

MODELS HAVE A GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST COMES INTO QUESTION
EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE ECMWF HAS A DIGGING TROUGH ON THE WEST
COAST WHEREAS THE 6Z GFS HAS MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DURING
THIS PERIOD. WITH THE QUICKER ZONAL FLOW PATTERN...THE 6Z GFS
BRINGS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF...WHICH IS
ITS NORMAL BIAS...SO HAVE LEANED AGAINST THE 6Z GFS FOR THAT
PERIOD. THE 6Z GFS IS LATER THAN THE ECMWF BRINGING THAT TROUGH
DOWN INTO THE STATES AS WELL SO EXTRA INSTABILITY IS INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT VIA THE 6Z GFS. HAVE LEANED AGAINST THAT AS
WELL AND MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF...12Z GFS AND ENSEMBLES THAT HAVE
A HIGH STILL OVER THE EAST COAST.

DAILIES...

MONDAY...SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWEST
FLOW. THIS ALLOWS FOR PRECIPITATION AND WEAK INSTABILITY AS SHOWN BY
PWATS 2 TO 3 SDS ABOVE NORMAL AND K-INDEX ABOVE 30 IN SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. MUCAPE IS ONLY JUST ABOVE 1000 J/KG. THE LOW
LEVEL JET WILL BE DEPARTING THE REGION TO THE SOUTH SO SHEAR SHOULD
STAY LOW HOWEVER WITH DECREASING 500 MB TEMPS CAN/T RULE OUT SOME
CONVECTION. DEW POINTS WILL ALSO REACH THE 70S SO HUMIDITY WILL BE
TROPICAL IN NATURE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FLOODING...BUT REGION HAS
BEEN DRY FOR A WHILE SO LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BE THE ONLY TYPE THAT
IS OBSERVED.

TUESDAY...POSSIBILITY OF FOG IN VALLEYS AND OTHER FOG PRONE AREAS.
OTHERWISE AREAS OF ISENTROPIC DESCENSION...RISING HEIGHTS AND RISING
700 MB TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE TO 10C ALLUDE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A
LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD. BELIEVE THAT OCCURS
FROM EARLY MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS WILL AGAIN REACH
THE 70S DURING THE DAY. THEN...A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A GERATER POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWESTERN MA. THIS IS
WHERE NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES AND BETTER SHEAR EXISTS.

WEDNESDAY...AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH IN THE MORNING...
EXPECT TO SEE ANY SHOWERS COME TO AN END AND DRIER AIR PUSH IN. A
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE CONTROL WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES. CLEARING SKIES AND
DRIER AIR WITH DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY...HAVE TO WATCH FOR AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THRU SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

THRU 00Z...VFR WITH CIGS BKN040-050...LESS CLOUDS EASTERN MA AND
RI. S TO SE WINDS 10-20 KT

AFTER 00Z...VFR TO START THEN LOWERING TO MVFR CIGS BEGINNING
03Z-06Z FOLLOWED BY MVFR VSBYS LATER IN PATCHY FOG.

SUNDAY...MARGINAL MVFR-VFR. SHRA AND TSRA DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z
WEST AND THEN SLIDING EAST TOWARD 00Z. ACTIVITY MOST WIDESPREAD
ACROSS NORTHWEST CT-MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH. A FEW STRONG STORMS
POSSIBLE WITH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR DURING THE EVENING SLIPPING TO IFR. SHRA AND
TSRA ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WIND.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN AREAS OF SHOWERS. POSSIBLE TSRA ESPECIALLY
INLAND. SW WINDS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAY SEE PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS IN
THE MORNING. A WINDOW OF PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER EXPECTED
SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD. OTHERWISE ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND STORMS. SW
WINDS CONTINUE.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS FROM DEPARTING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. EVENTUAL
CHANGE FROM SW WINDS TO NW WINDS WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...

S-SE WINDS BECOME SW OVERNIGHT. GOOD VSBY THIS EVENING BUT LOWERING
LATE IN PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE.

SUNDAY...

LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND DRIZZLE LIMIT VSBY EARLY BUT IMPROVING BY MIDDAY.
DRY WEATHER THEREAFTER WITH RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HOLD
OFF UNTIL AT LEAST 5 PM AND POSSIBLY UNTIL AFTER DARK. SW WIND 15-20
KT WITH A FEW GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT NEAR SHORE ESPECIALLY ACROSS CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS.

SUN NIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS DURING THE EVENING. PATCHY FOG WILL
LIMIT VSBY. SW WIND 15-20 KT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS BEGIN TO RELAX DURING THE DAY. SEAS ALSO RELAX FROM 5FT SWELL
TO AROUND 3 TO 4 FT SWELL. COULD BE NEAR SCA FOR DECAYING 5FT SWELLS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SW WINDS WILL VEER
TO NW LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...NOCERA/ROLLER
AVIATION...NOCERA/ROLLER
MARINE...NOCERA/ROLLER



000
FXUS61 KBOX 302019
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
419 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER AND HUMID CONDITIONS DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY
OVER THE INTERIOR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FOCUSED
ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE LABOR DAY. A PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER FOLLOWS TUE BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE TUE EVENING AND NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA. WARM BUT LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR MID WEEK BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

4 PM UPDATE...

TRANQUIL EVENING AHEAD WITH DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE TEMPS AND
DEW PTS. A MODEST S TO SE WIND OF 10-20 MPH WILL DIMINISH WITH
SUNSET. WARM FRONT BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS PA/VA/WVA. THIS
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SO WHILE DIURNAL STRATO-CU
WILL LIKELY ERODE WITH SUNSET...CLOUDS ALONG AND AHEAD OF DEVELOPING
WARM FRONT WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS EVENING.
MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE FAIRLY SHALLOW WITH THIS FEATURE SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY PRECIP OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG.

GIVEN THE ONSHORE WINDS...INCREASING DEW PTS AND INCREASING CLOUD
COVER OVERNIGHT NOT NEARLY AS COOL AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS. LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE 60S REGIONWIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

*** POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG T-STORMS SUN AFTN AND EVENING ACROSS
  NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH ***

SUNDAY...MERIDIONAL FLOW ACROSS THE MS VLY INTO THE GREAT LAKES IS
YIELDING A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PWATS +3 STD STREAMING
NORTHEAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. 12Z ECMWF MUCAPE CLIMBS TO ABOUT
1100J/KG AT 18Z SUNDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. EVEN THE LOW RES 12Z
GEFS ENSEMBLES SUGGEST 400-600J/KG OF MEAN CAPE INLAND SUN AFTN.
THUS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY ALONG WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ALONG A PREFRONTAL TROUGH TO INITIATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

0-6KM SHEAR IS INITIALLY WEAK AT 25KT 18Z SUNDAY BUT INCREASES TO 35-
45 KT BY 00Z ACROSS NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHERN NH. THUS THIS IS
SUFFICIENT FOR A LOW RISK FOR A FEW STRONG T-STORMS SUN AFTN AND
EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH.
THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING GIVEN THE ANOMALOUS PWATS /DEW PTS NEAR 70 TOO/ AND STRONG
WINDS GIVEN THE INCREASING SHEAR. GIVEN THE RECENT DRY WEATHER AND
RESULTING HIGH FFG /3.5-4" IN 6 HRS/ GREATEST RISK OF FLASH FLOODING
IS THE URBAN AREAS.

NOT EXPECTING A COMPLETE WASHOUT AS THERE WILL BE DRY PERIODS OF
WEATHER TOMORROW. ONCE MORNING FOG BURNS OFF SHOULD SEE PARTIAL
SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER FROM MID MORNING INTO AT LEAST EARLY IF NOT
MID AFTERNOON...AS CONVECTION FIRST FIRES NORTHWEST AREAS THEN
SLIDES TOWARD THE COAST BY 00Z. IT WILL BE WARMER AND MORE HUMID
THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE L80S AND DEW PTS IN THE MU60S TO AROUND
70.

SUNDAY NIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING ALONG
WITH THE THREATS OF HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLY
ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS. CONVECTION WANES AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE AND WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HEADLINES...

* HEAVY SHOWERS/T-STORMS POSSIBLE MON...TUE EVENING INTO EARLY
  WED
* BRIEF BREAK/DRY WEATHER TUESDAY
* DRYING HIGH PRESSURE WED THROUGH FRIDAY

OVERVIEW...THE OVERALL PATTERN HAS THE STATES CONTAINING A RIDGE IN
THE EAST AND A TROUGH IN THE WEST. THE BOUNDARY IN BEWTEEN SHOULD
THEN BRING IN MOISTURE ALONG A COLD FRONT. AFTER THE RAIN-CAUSING
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
FOR SATURDAY. A NEGATIVE NAO FORMS BLOCKING UP THE PATTERN LATE
WHILE A NEGATIVE PNA STAYS OVER THE UNITED STATES KEEPING THE RIDGE
OVER THE EAST COAST.

MODELS HAVE A GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST COMES INTO QUESTION
EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE ECMWF HAS A DIGGING TROUGH ON THE WEST
COAST WHEREAS THE 6Z GFS HAS MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DURING
THIS PERIOD. WITH THE QUICKER ZONAL FLOW PATTERN...THE 6Z GFS
BRINGS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF...WHICH IS
ITS NORMAL BIAS...SO HAVE LEANED AGAINST THE 6Z GFS FOR THAT
PERIOD. THE 6Z GFS IS LATER THAN THE ECMWF BRINGING THAT TROUGH
DOWN INTO THE STATES AS WELL SO EXTRA INSTABILITY IS INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT VIA THE 6Z GFS. HAVE LEANED AGAINST THAT AS
WELL AND MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF...12Z GFS AND ENSEMBLES THAT HAVE
A HIGH STILL OVER THE EAST COAST.

DAILIES...

MONDAY...SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWEST
FLOW. THIS ALLOWS FOR PRECIPITATION AND WEAK INSTABILITY AS SHOWN BY
PWATS 2 TO 3 SDS ABOVE NORMAL AND K-INDEX ABOVE 30 IN SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. MUCAPE IS ONLY JUST ABOVE 1000 J/KG. THE LOW
LEVEL JET WILL BE DEPARTING THE REGION TO THE SOUTH SO SHEAR SHOULD
STAY LOW HOWEVER WITH DECREASING 500 MB TEMPS CAN/T RULE OUT SOME
CONVECTION. DEW POINTS WILL ALSO REACH THE 70S SO HUMIDITY WILL BE
TROPICAL IN NATURE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FLOODING...BUT REGION HAS
BEEN DRY FOR A WHILE SO LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BE THE ONLY TYPE THAT
IS OBSERVED.

TUESDAY...POSSIBILITY OF FOG IN VALLEYS AND OTHER FOG PRONE AREAS.
OTHERWISE AREAS OF ISENTROPIC DESCENSION...RISING HEIGHTS AND RISING
700 MB TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE TO 10C ALLUDE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A
LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD. BELIEVE THAT OCCURS
FROM EARLY MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS WILL AGAIN REACH
THE 70S DURING THE DAY. THEN...A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A GERATER POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWESTERN MA. THIS IS
WHERE NEGATIVE SHOWALTER VALUES AND BETTER SHEAR EXISTS.

WEDNESDAY...AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH IN THE MORNING...
EXPECT TO SEE ANY SHOWERS COME TO AN END AND DRIER AIR PUSH IN. A
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE CONTROL WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES. CLEARING SKIES AND
DRIER AIR WITH DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY...HAVE TO WATCH FOR AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THRU SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

THRU 00Z...VFR WITH CIGS BKN040-050...LESS CLOUDS EASTERN MA AND
RI. S TO SE WINDS 10-20 KT

AFTER 00Z...VFR TO START THEN LOWERING TO MVFR CIGS BEGINNING
03Z-06Z FOLLOWED BY MVFR VSBYS LATER IN PATCHY FOG.

SUNDAY...MARGINAL MVFR-VFR. SHRA AND TSRA DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z
WEST AND THEN SLIDING EAST TOWARD 00Z. ACTIVITY MOST WIDESPREAD
ACROSS NORTHWEST CT-MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH. A FEW STRONG STORMS
POSSIBLE WITH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR DURING THE EVENING SLIPPING TO IFR. SHRA AND
TSRA ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WIND.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN AREAS OF SHOWERS. POSSIBLE TSRA ESPECIALLY
INLAND. SW WINDS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAY SEE PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS IN
THE MORNING. A WINDOW OF PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER EXPECTED
SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD. OTHERWISE ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND STORMS. SW
WINDS CONTINUE.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS FROM DEPARTING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. EVENTUAL
CHANGE FROM SW WINDS TO NW WINDS WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...

S-SE WINDS BECOME SW OVERNIGHT. GOOD VSBY THIS EVENING BUT LOWERING
LATE IN PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE.

SUNDAY...

LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND DRIZZLE LIMIT VSBY EARLY BUT IMPROVING BY MIDDAY.
DRY WEATHER THEREAFTER WITH RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HOLD
OFF UNTIL AT LEAST 5 PM AND POSSIBLY UNTIL AFTER DARK. SW WIND 15-20
KT WITH A FEW GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT NEAR SHORE ESPECIALLY ACROSS CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS.

SUN NIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS DURING THE EVENING. PATCHY FOG WILL
LIMIT VSBY. SW WIND 15-20 KT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WINDS BEGIN TO RELAX DURING THE DAY. SEAS ALSO RELAX FROM 5FT SWELL
TO AROUND 3 TO 4 FT SWELL. COULD BE NEAR SCA FOR DECAYING 5FT SWELLS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SW WINDS WILL VEER
TO NW LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...NOCERA/ROLLER
AVIATION...NOCERA/ROLLER
MARINE...NOCERA/ROLLER




000
FXUS61 KBOX 301757
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
157 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY. WARMER AND
MORE HUMID AIR WILL THEN MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH WITH SUMMERTIME
HUMIDITY STARTING SUNDAY. A FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER FAST MOVING FRONT MAY BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER LATE NEXT WEEK WITH DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

2 PM UPDATE...

PLEASANT AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S ALONG WITH
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY AS DEW PTS REMAIN IN THE 50S...DESPITE A
SOUTHERLY WIND OF 10-20 MPH. STRATO-CU IS MORE ABUNDANT IN THE CT
RVR VLY BUT STILL SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE OCCURRING THERE. NOT
MUCH CHANGE TO FORECAST AS THESE DETAILS ARE ALREADY CAPTURED IN
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...

TONIGHT...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING WARMER MORE
HUMID AIR TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MEAN INCREASING CLOUDS AS
THE HIGHER HUMIDITY AIR RIDES UP OVER THE COOLER AIRMASS AT THE
SURFACE. THE MOIST LAYER WILL BE CONCENTRATED BELOW 950 MB WITH
AT BEST WEAK LIFT...SO EXPECT CLOUDS AND FOG WITH SOME DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL START THE DAY OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. AN 85-90 KNOT JET WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM EAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND BY LATER IN THE DAY. THE DYNAMICALLY FAVORABLE ZONES
FOR LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET WILL BE WELL TO OUR WEST IN THE
MORNING...BUT THEN SHIFT INTO OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE BEST SUPPORT IN WESTERN MASS/SOUTHERN NH LATE IN THE DAY.

CLOUDS MAY THIN IN THE MORNING BUT SHOULD THICKEN AGAIN THROUGH
THE DAY AS SHORTWAVE AND ITS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVE IN. LAPSE RATE
IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER IS SO-SO AT 5.5C/KM. TOTALS CLIMB TO THE
MID 40S. WINDS AT 850 MB REACH 30 KNOTS WHILE 500 MB WINDS REACH
40-45 KNOTS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB THROUGH THE DAY
WITH AFTERNOON VALUES OF 2.0 TO 2.25 INCHES...MOVE THAN 2 STD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND POTENTIALLY NEAR 3.

THIS FAVORS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW PRETTY
GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...THOUGH SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES WORK IN BEGINNING AROUND THE TUESDAY TIMEFRAME THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK AS THE FLAT UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES TENDING TO CAUSE OPERATIONAL MODEL
RUNS TO EXACERBATE TIMING ISSUES WITH FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN THIS
FLOW.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST STARTS OFF
WITH RATHER HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FROM THE NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC IN
THE NORTHERN STREAM WIND FLOW...WHILE A TROUGH DIGS OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. OVERALL...THIS NORTHERN STREAM HAS BEEN GENERALLY
FLATTER THAN THE LAST SEVERAL MONTHS /WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE SLOW
MOVING PATTERNS/...WHICH SIGNALS A FASTER FLOW OF SURFACE SYSTEMS
WITHIN THIS FLOW. EARLY IN THIS FORECAST...WILL SEE A SHORT WAVE
RIDE ACROSS IN THE FLATTER PORTION OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
REGION... WHICH WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS INTO THE HOLIDAY.
ONCE THIS MOVES E...EXPECT A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. ONE THING THAT IS
CONSISTENT IS A CONTINUED MILDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURE REGIME
WITH RATHER HIGH HUMIDITY TO START OFF...THEN WILL SLOWLY DROP BUT
REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCOMFORTABLE...OUR SHOT FOR LATE SUMMER
CONDITIONS.

LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS
A PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS CONTINUES. FROM LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK...TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE ENSEMBLE MEANS WHICH
HAVE BEEN MORE STABLE THAN THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS DUE TO
TIMING ISSUES WITH THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST BEYOND EARLY TUESDAY.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
EXPECT SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
THIS TIMEFRAME AS AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND SURFACE REFLECTION
REMAINS PARALLEL TO THE SW UPPER FLOW. AS THE FLOW FLATTENS OUT
LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT...THE LEFTOVER ENERGY WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
BUT MAY LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL HIGH PWATS...ON ORDER OF 2.2 TO 2.3
INCHES...SO SOME RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN PRETTY DRY OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL WEEKS...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SPOTS THAT DID HAVE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AROUND 8/27-28 /CENTRAL MA AND S CENTRAL
CT/. THERE MAY BE A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS THAT ARE PRONE TO POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING THAT MIGHT HAVE SOME PROBLEMS SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...BUT ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY FOR THIS. ALSO NOTING H85
WINDS UP TO 35-40 KT...SO SOME COULD MIX DOWN WITH ANY STORMS
EARLY SUN NIGHT ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

SHOULD START TO SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS S NH/N MA EARLY
MON NIGHT...THEN WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. ONLY QUESTION
WILL BE TIMING THE PRECIP EXIT ALONG THE S COAST...WHICH IT MAY
LINGER A BIT LONGER. SHOULD SEE THIS AREA IMPROVE AROUND OR AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

EXPECT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH S-SW WINDS IN PLACE. DEWPTS
WILL BE STEAMY...IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE...THOUGH MAY DROP A
BIT INLAND AS CONDITIONS IMPROVE MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
ANOTHER FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH TOWARD THE REGION. WILL SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE THE
BEST ENERGY AND DYNAMICS OCCUR. CAN NOT RULE OUT A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER
LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL LIFT NE TUE NIGHT.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER-
MID 80S. IT WILL REMAIN STICKY TUE NIGHT...THOUGH DEWPTS MAY DROP
A FEW DEGS WELL INLAND.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THIS
TIMEFRAME. WITH CONTINUED W-SW WINDS IN PLACE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN
SEVERAL DEGS WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. DOES
LOOK LIKE DEWPTS WILL BE A BIT MORE COMFORTABLE ON THURSDAY...
FORECAST IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 /VS. 65 TO 70 EARLY IN THE
WEEK/. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOWER-MID 80S.

MAY SEE ANOTHER FRONT TRY TO APPROACH LATER FRIDAY...THOUGH
TIMING IS IN QUESTION. HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST DURING THE DAY FOR
NOW...BUT MIGHT SEE SOME SHOWERS TRY TO MOVE IN FRI NIGHT. LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THRU SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

THRU 00Z...VFR WITH CIGS BKN040-050...LESS CLOUDS EASTERN MA AND
RI. S TO SE WINDS 10-20 KT

AFTER 00Z...VFR TO START THEN LOWERING TO MVFR CIGS BEGINNING
03Z-06Z FOLLOWED BY MVFR VSBYS LATER IN PATCHY FOG.

SUNDAY...MARGINAL MVFR-VFR. SHRA AND TSRA DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z
WEST AND THEN SLIDING EAST TOWARD 00Z. ACTIVITY MOST WIDESPREAD
ACROSS NORTHWEST CT-MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH. A FEW STRONG STORMS
POSSIBLE WITH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR DURING THE EVENING SLIPPING TO IFR. SHRA AND
TSRA ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WIND.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

LOW END VFR GENERALLY...THOUGH WILL SEE POCKETS OF MVFR-IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN AREAS OF SHOWERS. POSSIBLE TSRA AT SOME TERMINALS
ESPECIALLY INLAND EARLY SUN NIGHT. S-SW WINDS CONTINUE. PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPS WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MAINLY LOW END
VFR CONDITIONS. SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR TUE
AFTERNOON/EARLY TUE NIGHT...THEN SHOULD LIFT NE. LOW RISK FOR
TSRA. WINDS VEER TO W LATE TUE NIGHT. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR. PATCHY FOG EARLY WED MORNING WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR
VSBYS WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL MEAN FAIR SKIES AND
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE.

TONIGHT...
WARM HUMID AIR MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH AND ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS
WOULD FAVOR PATCHY FOG AND POSSIBLY LIGHT DRIZZLE.

SUNDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WIND WITH GUSTS 20-22 KNOTS.
BUILDING SEAS...BUT HEIGHTS BELOW 5 FEET UNTIL EVENING.
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP WEST AND NORTHWEST OF MASSACHUSETTS.
THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE THESE COULD REACH THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY
WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT. MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS CLOSE TO 25
KT ON THE OUTER WATERS SUN NIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT MAINLY
ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SW WINDS WILL
VEER TO W LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 301757
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
157 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY. WARMER AND
MORE HUMID AIR WILL THEN MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH WITH SUMMERTIME
HUMIDITY STARTING SUNDAY. A FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER FAST MOVING FRONT MAY BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER LATE NEXT WEEK WITH DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

2 PM UPDATE...

PLEASANT AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S ALONG WITH
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY AS DEW PTS REMAIN IN THE 50S...DESPITE A
SOUTHERLY WIND OF 10-20 MPH. STRATO-CU IS MORE ABUNDANT IN THE CT
RVR VLY BUT STILL SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE OCCURRING THERE. NOT
MUCH CHANGE TO FORECAST AS THESE DETAILS ARE ALREADY CAPTURED IN
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...

TONIGHT...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING WARMER MORE
HUMID AIR TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MEAN INCREASING CLOUDS AS
THE HIGHER HUMIDITY AIR RIDES UP OVER THE COOLER AIRMASS AT THE
SURFACE. THE MOIST LAYER WILL BE CONCENTRATED BELOW 950 MB WITH
AT BEST WEAK LIFT...SO EXPECT CLOUDS AND FOG WITH SOME DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL START THE DAY OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. AN 85-90 KNOT JET WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM EAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND BY LATER IN THE DAY. THE DYNAMICALLY FAVORABLE ZONES
FOR LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET WILL BE WELL TO OUR WEST IN THE
MORNING...BUT THEN SHIFT INTO OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE BEST SUPPORT IN WESTERN MASS/SOUTHERN NH LATE IN THE DAY.

CLOUDS MAY THIN IN THE MORNING BUT SHOULD THICKEN AGAIN THROUGH
THE DAY AS SHORTWAVE AND ITS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVE IN. LAPSE RATE
IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER IS SO-SO AT 5.5C/KM. TOTALS CLIMB TO THE
MID 40S. WINDS AT 850 MB REACH 30 KNOTS WHILE 500 MB WINDS REACH
40-45 KNOTS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB THROUGH THE DAY
WITH AFTERNOON VALUES OF 2.0 TO 2.25 INCHES...MOVE THAN 2 STD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND POTENTIALLY NEAR 3.

THIS FAVORS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW PRETTY
GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...THOUGH SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES WORK IN BEGINNING AROUND THE TUESDAY TIMEFRAME THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK AS THE FLAT UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES TENDING TO CAUSE OPERATIONAL MODEL
RUNS TO EXACERBATE TIMING ISSUES WITH FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN THIS
FLOW.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST STARTS OFF
WITH RATHER HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FROM THE NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC IN
THE NORTHERN STREAM WIND FLOW...WHILE A TROUGH DIGS OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. OVERALL...THIS NORTHERN STREAM HAS BEEN GENERALLY
FLATTER THAN THE LAST SEVERAL MONTHS /WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE SLOW
MOVING PATTERNS/...WHICH SIGNALS A FASTER FLOW OF SURFACE SYSTEMS
WITHIN THIS FLOW. EARLY IN THIS FORECAST...WILL SEE A SHORT WAVE
RIDE ACROSS IN THE FLATTER PORTION OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
REGION... WHICH WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS INTO THE HOLIDAY.
ONCE THIS MOVES E...EXPECT A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. ONE THING THAT IS
CONSISTENT IS A CONTINUED MILDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURE REGIME
WITH RATHER HIGH HUMIDITY TO START OFF...THEN WILL SLOWLY DROP BUT
REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCOMFORTABLE...OUR SHOT FOR LATE SUMMER
CONDITIONS.

LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS
A PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS CONTINUES. FROM LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK...TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE ENSEMBLE MEANS WHICH
HAVE BEEN MORE STABLE THAN THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS DUE TO
TIMING ISSUES WITH THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST BEYOND EARLY TUESDAY.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
EXPECT SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
THIS TIMEFRAME AS AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND SURFACE REFLECTION
REMAINS PARALLEL TO THE SW UPPER FLOW. AS THE FLOW FLATTENS OUT
LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT...THE LEFTOVER ENERGY WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
BUT MAY LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL HIGH PWATS...ON ORDER OF 2.2 TO 2.3
INCHES...SO SOME RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN PRETTY DRY OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL WEEKS...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SPOTS THAT DID HAVE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AROUND 8/27-28 /CENTRAL MA AND S CENTRAL
CT/. THERE MAY BE A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS THAT ARE PRONE TO POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING THAT MIGHT HAVE SOME PROBLEMS SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...BUT ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY FOR THIS. ALSO NOTING H85
WINDS UP TO 35-40 KT...SO SOME COULD MIX DOWN WITH ANY STORMS
EARLY SUN NIGHT ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

SHOULD START TO SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS S NH/N MA EARLY
MON NIGHT...THEN WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. ONLY QUESTION
WILL BE TIMING THE PRECIP EXIT ALONG THE S COAST...WHICH IT MAY
LINGER A BIT LONGER. SHOULD SEE THIS AREA IMPROVE AROUND OR AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

EXPECT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH S-SW WINDS IN PLACE. DEWPTS
WILL BE STEAMY...IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE...THOUGH MAY DROP A
BIT INLAND AS CONDITIONS IMPROVE MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
ANOTHER FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH TOWARD THE REGION. WILL SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE THE
BEST ENERGY AND DYNAMICS OCCUR. CAN NOT RULE OUT A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER
LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL LIFT NE TUE NIGHT.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER-
MID 80S. IT WILL REMAIN STICKY TUE NIGHT...THOUGH DEWPTS MAY DROP
A FEW DEGS WELL INLAND.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THIS
TIMEFRAME. WITH CONTINUED W-SW WINDS IN PLACE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN
SEVERAL DEGS WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. DOES
LOOK LIKE DEWPTS WILL BE A BIT MORE COMFORTABLE ON THURSDAY...
FORECAST IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 /VS. 65 TO 70 EARLY IN THE
WEEK/. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOWER-MID 80S.

MAY SEE ANOTHER FRONT TRY TO APPROACH LATER FRIDAY...THOUGH
TIMING IS IN QUESTION. HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST DURING THE DAY FOR
NOW...BUT MIGHT SEE SOME SHOWERS TRY TO MOVE IN FRI NIGHT. LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THRU SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

THRU 00Z...VFR WITH CIGS BKN040-050...LESS CLOUDS EASTERN MA AND
RI. S TO SE WINDS 10-20 KT

AFTER 00Z...VFR TO START THEN LOWERING TO MVFR CIGS BEGINNING
03Z-06Z FOLLOWED BY MVFR VSBYS LATER IN PATCHY FOG.

SUNDAY...MARGINAL MVFR-VFR. SHRA AND TSRA DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z
WEST AND THEN SLIDING EAST TOWARD 00Z. ACTIVITY MOST WIDESPREAD
ACROSS NORTHWEST CT-MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH. A FEW STRONG STORMS
POSSIBLE WITH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR DURING THE EVENING SLIPPING TO IFR. SHRA AND
TSRA ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WIND.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF REGARDING TRENDS BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECISE DETAILS AND TIMING.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

LOW END VFR GENERALLY...THOUGH WILL SEE POCKETS OF MVFR-IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN AREAS OF SHOWERS. POSSIBLE TSRA AT SOME TERMINALS
ESPECIALLY INLAND EARLY SUN NIGHT. S-SW WINDS CONTINUE. PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPS WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MAINLY LOW END
VFR CONDITIONS. SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR TUE
AFTERNOON/EARLY TUE NIGHT...THEN SHOULD LIFT NE. LOW RISK FOR
TSRA. WINDS VEER TO W LATE TUE NIGHT. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR. PATCHY FOG EARLY WED MORNING WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR
VSBYS WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL MEAN FAIR SKIES AND
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE.

TONIGHT...
WARM HUMID AIR MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH AND ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS
WOULD FAVOR PATCHY FOG AND POSSIBLY LIGHT DRIZZLE.

SUNDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WIND WITH GUSTS 20-22 KNOTS.
BUILDING SEAS...BUT HEIGHTS BELOW 5 FEET UNTIL EVENING.
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP WEST AND NORTHWEST OF MASSACHUSETTS.
THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE THESE COULD REACH THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY
WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT. MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS CLOSE TO 25
KT ON THE OUTER WATERS SUN NIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT MAINLY
ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SW WINDS WILL
VEER TO W LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 301358
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
958 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY. WARMER MORE
HUMID AIR WILL THEN MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH WITH SUMMERTIME
HUMIDITY STARTING SUNDAY. A FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER FAST MOVING FRONT MAY BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER LATE NEXT WEEK WITH DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

ONLY CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE REGION...AS LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
PATCHY FOG FROM LAST NIGHT IS NOW LIFTING INTO A DECK OF STRATO-
CU. 12Z UPSTREAM SOUNDING FROM EASTERN LONG ISLAND DEPICTS LOTS OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THIS EXPECT
CLOUDS TO BECOME MORE ABUNDANT INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER SHOULD
STILL SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUN. OVERALL STILL A PLEASANT LATE SUMMER
DAY. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

================================================================

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOR TODAY...GENERAL SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE HIGH SHOULD PROVIDE A
SUNNY DAY. A MOIST LAYER WITH 75 PERCENT RH WILL LINGER BETWEEN
850 AND 900 MB WITH MIXING EXPECTED TO REACH TO 900 MB OR A LITTLE
ABOVE. THIS SHOULD AGAIN GENERATE DIURNAL CUMULUS LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER WILL SUPPORT
MAX SFC TEMPS OF 73 TO 79F...A FEW SPOTS MAY TOUCH 80F. SOUTH
WINDS COMING OFF THE OCEAN WILL KEEP THE SOUTH COAST A LITTLE
COOLER...70 TO 75F. WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL BE AROUND 15-18
KNOTS...SO EXPECT SOME GUSTS TO THIS RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING WARMER MORE
HUMID AIR TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MEAN INCREASING CLOUDS AS
THE HIGHER HUMIDITY AIR RIDES UP OVER THE COOLER AIRMASS AT THE
SURFACE. THE MOIST LAYER WILL BE CONCENTRATED BELOW 950 MB WITH
AT BEST WEAK LIFT...SO EXPECT CLOUDS AND FOG WITH SOME DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL START THE DAY OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. AN 85-90 KNOT JET WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM EAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND BY LATER IN THE DAY. THE DYNAMICALLY FAVORABLE ZONES
FOR LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET WILL BE WELL TO OUR WEST IN THE
MORNING...BUT THEN SHIFT INTO OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE BEST SUPPORT IN WESTERN MASS/SOUTHERN NH LATE IN THE DAY.

CLOUDS MAY THIN IN THE MORNING BUT SHOULD THICKEN AGAIN THROUGH
THE DAY AS SHORTWAVE AND ITS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVE IN. LAPSE RATE
IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER IS SO-SO AT 5.5C/KM. TOTALS CLIMB TO THE
MID 40S. WINDS AT 850 MB REACH 30 KNOTS WHILE 500 MB WINDS REACH
40-45 KNOTS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB THROUGH THE DAY
WITH AFTERNOON VALUES OF 2.0 TO 2.25 INCHES...MOVE THAN 2 STD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND POTENTIALLY NEAR 3.

THIS FAVORS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW PRETTY
GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...THOUGH SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES WORK IN BEGINNING AROUND THE TUESDAY TIMEFRAME THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK AS THE FLAT UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES TENDING TO CAUSE OPERATIONAL MODEL
RUNS TO EXACERBATE TIMING ISSUES WITH FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN THIS
FLOW.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST STARTS OFF
WITH RATHER HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FROM THE NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC IN
THE NORTHERN STREAM WIND FLOW...WHILE A TROUGH DIGS OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. OVERALL...THIS NORTHERN STREAM HAS BEEN GENERALLY
FLATTER THAN THE LAST SEVERAL MONTHS /WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE SLOW
MOVING PATTERNS/...WHICH SIGNALS A FASTER FLOW OF SURFACE SYSTEMS
WITHIN THIS FLOW. EARLY IN THIS FORECAST...WILL SEE A SHORT WAVE
RIDE ACROSS IN THE FLATTER PORTION OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
REGION... WHICH WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS INTO THE HOLIDAY.
ONCE THIS MOVES E...EXPECT A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. ONE THING THAT IS
CONSISTENT IS A CONTINUED MILDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURE REGIME
WITH RATHER HIGH HUMIDITY TO START OFF...THEN WILL SLOWLY DROP BUT
REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCOMFORTABLE...OUR SHOT FOR LATE SUMMER
CONDITIONS.

LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS
A PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS CONTINUES. FROM LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK...TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE ENSEMBLE MEANS WHICH
HAVE BEEN MORE STABLE THAN THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS DUE TO
TIMING ISSUES WITH THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST BEYOND EARLY TUESDAY.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
EXPECT SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
THIS TIMEFRAME AS AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND SURFACE REFLECTION
REMAINS PARALLEL TO THE SW UPPER FLOW. AS THE FLOW FLATTENS OUT
LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT...THE LEFTOVER ENERGY WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
BUT MAY LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL HIGH PWATS...ON ORDER OF 2.2 TO 2.3
INCHES...SO SOME RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN PRETTY DRY OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL WEEKS...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SPOTS THAT DID HAVE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AROUND 8/27-28 /CENTRAL MA AND S CENTRAL
CT/. THERE MAY BE A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS THAT ARE PRONE TO POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING THAT MIGHT HAVE SOME PROBLEMS SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...BUT ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY FOR THIS. ALSO NOTING H85
WINDS UP TO 35-40 KT...SO SOME COULD MIX DOWN WITH ANY STORMS
EARLY SUN NIGHT ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

SHOULD START TO SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS S NH/N MA EARLY
MON NIGHT...THEN WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. ONLY QUESTION
WILL BE TIMING THE PRECIP EXIT ALONG THE S COAST...WHICH IT MAY
LINGER A BIT LONGER. SHOULD SEE THIS AREA IMPROVE AROUND OR AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

EXPECT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH S-SW WINDS IN PLACE. DEWPTS
WILL BE STEAMY...IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE...THOUGH MAY DROP A
BIT INLAND AS CONDITIONS IMPROVE MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
ANOTHER FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH TOWARD THE REGION. WILL SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE THE
BEST ENERGY AND DYNAMICS OCCUR. CAN NOT RULE OUT A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER
LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL LIFT NE TUE NIGHT.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER-
MID 80S. IT WILL REMAIN STICKY TUE NIGHT...THOUGH DEWPTS MAY DROP
A FEW DEGS WELL INLAND.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THIS
TIMEFRAME. WITH CONTINUED W-SW WINDS IN PLACE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN
SEVERAL DEGS WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. DOES
LOOK LIKE DEWPTS WILL BE A BIT MORE COMFORTABLE ON THURSDAY...
FORECAST IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 /VS. 65 TO 70 EARLY IN THE
WEEK/. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOWER-MID 80S.

MAY SEE ANOTHER FRONT TRY TO APPROACH LATER FRIDAY...THOUGH
TIMING IS IN QUESTION. HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST DURING THE DAY FOR
NOW...BUT MIGHT SEE SOME SHOWERS TRY TO MOVE IN FRI NIGHT. LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

10 AM UPDATE...

CHANGE FROM THE 12Z TAFS WILL BE TO TRANSITION FROM VFR TO MVFR AS
CIGS BKN015-025 DEVELOP INTO THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...GENERALLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR-IFR THROUGH 13Z-14Z IN NORMALLY
PRONE AREAS OF S NH/NE CT/E INTERIOR MA. EXPECT LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM
WINDS AT 12Z TO BECOME S AT 5-10 KT.

TONIGHT...VFR EARLY. INCREASING RISK OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN
DEVELOPING CLOUD COVER AND FOG/DRIZZLE...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY...
MVFR/IFR EARLY IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. VSBY SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
DURING THE MORNING EXCEPT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WHERE IFR MAY
LINGER. MVFR AND LOW-END VFR CEILINGS AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON...MOSTLY IN THE CT VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NH. POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

LOW END VFR GENERALLY...THOUGH WILL SEE POCKETS OF MVFR-IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN AREAS OF SHOWERS. POSSIBLE TSRA AT SOME TERMINALS
ESPECIALLY INLAND EARLY SUN NIGHT. S-SW WINDS CONTINUE. PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPS WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MAINLY LOW END
VFR CONDITIONS. SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR TUE
AFTERNOON/EARLY TUE NIGHT...THEN SHOULD LIFT NE. LOW RISK FOR
TSRA. WINDS VEER TO W LATE TUE NIGHT. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR. PATCHY FOG EARLY WED MORNING WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR
VSBYS WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL MEAN FAIR SKIES AND
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE.

TONIGHT...
WARM HUMID AIR MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH AND ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS
WOULD FAVOR PATCHY FOG AND POSSIBLY LIGHT DRIZZLE.

SUNDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WIND WITH GUSTS 20-22 KNOTS.
BUILDING SEAS...BUT HEIGHTS BELOW 5 FEET UNTIL EVENING.
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP WEST AND NORTHWEST OF MASSACHUSETTS.
THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE THESE COULD REACH THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY
WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT. MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS CLOSE TO 25
KT ON THE OUTER WATERS SUN NIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT MAINLY
ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SW WINDS WILL
VEER TO W LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/NOCERA/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 301358
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
958 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY. WARMER MORE
HUMID AIR WILL THEN MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH WITH SUMMERTIME
HUMIDITY STARTING SUNDAY. A FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER FAST MOVING FRONT MAY BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER LATE NEXT WEEK WITH DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

ONLY CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE REGION...AS LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
PATCHY FOG FROM LAST NIGHT IS NOW LIFTING INTO A DECK OF STRATO-
CU. 12Z UPSTREAM SOUNDING FROM EASTERN LONG ISLAND DEPICTS LOTS OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THIS EXPECT
CLOUDS TO BECOME MORE ABUNDANT INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER SHOULD
STILL SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUN. OVERALL STILL A PLEASANT LATE SUMMER
DAY. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

================================================================

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOR TODAY...GENERAL SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE HIGH SHOULD PROVIDE A
SUNNY DAY. A MOIST LAYER WITH 75 PERCENT RH WILL LINGER BETWEEN
850 AND 900 MB WITH MIXING EXPECTED TO REACH TO 900 MB OR A LITTLE
ABOVE. THIS SHOULD AGAIN GENERATE DIURNAL CUMULUS LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER WILL SUPPORT
MAX SFC TEMPS OF 73 TO 79F...A FEW SPOTS MAY TOUCH 80F. SOUTH
WINDS COMING OFF THE OCEAN WILL KEEP THE SOUTH COAST A LITTLE
COOLER...70 TO 75F. WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL BE AROUND 15-18
KNOTS...SO EXPECT SOME GUSTS TO THIS RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING WARMER MORE
HUMID AIR TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MEAN INCREASING CLOUDS AS
THE HIGHER HUMIDITY AIR RIDES UP OVER THE COOLER AIRMASS AT THE
SURFACE. THE MOIST LAYER WILL BE CONCENTRATED BELOW 950 MB WITH
AT BEST WEAK LIFT...SO EXPECT CLOUDS AND FOG WITH SOME DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL START THE DAY OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. AN 85-90 KNOT JET WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM EAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND BY LATER IN THE DAY. THE DYNAMICALLY FAVORABLE ZONES
FOR LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET WILL BE WELL TO OUR WEST IN THE
MORNING...BUT THEN SHIFT INTO OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE BEST SUPPORT IN WESTERN MASS/SOUTHERN NH LATE IN THE DAY.

CLOUDS MAY THIN IN THE MORNING BUT SHOULD THICKEN AGAIN THROUGH
THE DAY AS SHORTWAVE AND ITS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVE IN. LAPSE RATE
IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER IS SO-SO AT 5.5C/KM. TOTALS CLIMB TO THE
MID 40S. WINDS AT 850 MB REACH 30 KNOTS WHILE 500 MB WINDS REACH
40-45 KNOTS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB THROUGH THE DAY
WITH AFTERNOON VALUES OF 2.0 TO 2.25 INCHES...MOVE THAN 2 STD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND POTENTIALLY NEAR 3.

THIS FAVORS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW PRETTY
GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...THOUGH SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES WORK IN BEGINNING AROUND THE TUESDAY TIMEFRAME THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK AS THE FLAT UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES TENDING TO CAUSE OPERATIONAL MODEL
RUNS TO EXACERBATE TIMING ISSUES WITH FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN THIS
FLOW.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST STARTS OFF
WITH RATHER HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FROM THE NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC IN
THE NORTHERN STREAM WIND FLOW...WHILE A TROUGH DIGS OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. OVERALL...THIS NORTHERN STREAM HAS BEEN GENERALLY
FLATTER THAN THE LAST SEVERAL MONTHS /WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE SLOW
MOVING PATTERNS/...WHICH SIGNALS A FASTER FLOW OF SURFACE SYSTEMS
WITHIN THIS FLOW. EARLY IN THIS FORECAST...WILL SEE A SHORT WAVE
RIDE ACROSS IN THE FLATTER PORTION OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
REGION... WHICH WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS INTO THE HOLIDAY.
ONCE THIS MOVES E...EXPECT A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. ONE THING THAT IS
CONSISTENT IS A CONTINUED MILDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURE REGIME
WITH RATHER HIGH HUMIDITY TO START OFF...THEN WILL SLOWLY DROP BUT
REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCOMFORTABLE...OUR SHOT FOR LATE SUMMER
CONDITIONS.

LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS
A PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS CONTINUES. FROM LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK...TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE ENSEMBLE MEANS WHICH
HAVE BEEN MORE STABLE THAN THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS DUE TO
TIMING ISSUES WITH THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST BEYOND EARLY TUESDAY.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
EXPECT SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
THIS TIMEFRAME AS AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND SURFACE REFLECTION
REMAINS PARALLEL TO THE SW UPPER FLOW. AS THE FLOW FLATTENS OUT
LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT...THE LEFTOVER ENERGY WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
BUT MAY LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL HIGH PWATS...ON ORDER OF 2.2 TO 2.3
INCHES...SO SOME RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN PRETTY DRY OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL WEEKS...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SPOTS THAT DID HAVE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AROUND 8/27-28 /CENTRAL MA AND S CENTRAL
CT/. THERE MAY BE A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS THAT ARE PRONE TO POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING THAT MIGHT HAVE SOME PROBLEMS SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...BUT ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY FOR THIS. ALSO NOTING H85
WINDS UP TO 35-40 KT...SO SOME COULD MIX DOWN WITH ANY STORMS
EARLY SUN NIGHT ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

SHOULD START TO SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS S NH/N MA EARLY
MON NIGHT...THEN WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. ONLY QUESTION
WILL BE TIMING THE PRECIP EXIT ALONG THE S COAST...WHICH IT MAY
LINGER A BIT LONGER. SHOULD SEE THIS AREA IMPROVE AROUND OR AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

EXPECT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH S-SW WINDS IN PLACE. DEWPTS
WILL BE STEAMY...IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE...THOUGH MAY DROP A
BIT INLAND AS CONDITIONS IMPROVE MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
ANOTHER FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH TOWARD THE REGION. WILL SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE THE
BEST ENERGY AND DYNAMICS OCCUR. CAN NOT RULE OUT A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER
LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL LIFT NE TUE NIGHT.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER-
MID 80S. IT WILL REMAIN STICKY TUE NIGHT...THOUGH DEWPTS MAY DROP
A FEW DEGS WELL INLAND.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THIS
TIMEFRAME. WITH CONTINUED W-SW WINDS IN PLACE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN
SEVERAL DEGS WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. DOES
LOOK LIKE DEWPTS WILL BE A BIT MORE COMFORTABLE ON THURSDAY...
FORECAST IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 /VS. 65 TO 70 EARLY IN THE
WEEK/. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOWER-MID 80S.

MAY SEE ANOTHER FRONT TRY TO APPROACH LATER FRIDAY...THOUGH
TIMING IS IN QUESTION. HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST DURING THE DAY FOR
NOW...BUT MIGHT SEE SOME SHOWERS TRY TO MOVE IN FRI NIGHT. LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

10 AM UPDATE...

CHANGE FROM THE 12Z TAFS WILL BE TO TRANSITION FROM VFR TO MVFR AS
CIGS BKN015-025 DEVELOP INTO THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...GENERALLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR-IFR THROUGH 13Z-14Z IN NORMALLY
PRONE AREAS OF S NH/NE CT/E INTERIOR MA. EXPECT LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM
WINDS AT 12Z TO BECOME S AT 5-10 KT.

TONIGHT...VFR EARLY. INCREASING RISK OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN
DEVELOPING CLOUD COVER AND FOG/DRIZZLE...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY...
MVFR/IFR EARLY IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. VSBY SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
DURING THE MORNING EXCEPT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WHERE IFR MAY
LINGER. MVFR AND LOW-END VFR CEILINGS AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON...MOSTLY IN THE CT VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NH. POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

LOW END VFR GENERALLY...THOUGH WILL SEE POCKETS OF MVFR-IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN AREAS OF SHOWERS. POSSIBLE TSRA AT SOME TERMINALS
ESPECIALLY INLAND EARLY SUN NIGHT. S-SW WINDS CONTINUE. PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPS WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MAINLY LOW END
VFR CONDITIONS. SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR TUE
AFTERNOON/EARLY TUE NIGHT...THEN SHOULD LIFT NE. LOW RISK FOR
TSRA. WINDS VEER TO W LATE TUE NIGHT. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR. PATCHY FOG EARLY WED MORNING WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR
VSBYS WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL MEAN FAIR SKIES AND
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE.

TONIGHT...
WARM HUMID AIR MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH AND ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS
WOULD FAVOR PATCHY FOG AND POSSIBLY LIGHT DRIZZLE.

SUNDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WIND WITH GUSTS 20-22 KNOTS.
BUILDING SEAS...BUT HEIGHTS BELOW 5 FEET UNTIL EVENING.
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP WEST AND NORTHWEST OF MASSACHUSETTS.
THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE THESE COULD REACH THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY
WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT. MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS CLOSE TO 25
KT ON THE OUTER WATERS SUN NIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT MAINLY
ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SW WINDS WILL
VEER TO W LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/NOCERA/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 301358
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
958 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY. WARMER MORE
HUMID AIR WILL THEN MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH WITH SUMMERTIME
HUMIDITY STARTING SUNDAY. A FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER FAST MOVING FRONT MAY BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER LATE NEXT WEEK WITH DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

ONLY CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE REGION...AS LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
PATCHY FOG FROM LAST NIGHT IS NOW LIFTING INTO A DECK OF STRATO-
CU. 12Z UPSTREAM SOUNDING FROM EASTERN LONG ISLAND DEPICTS LOTS OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THIS EXPECT
CLOUDS TO BECOME MORE ABUNDANT INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER SHOULD
STILL SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUN. OVERALL STILL A PLEASANT LATE SUMMER
DAY. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

================================================================

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOR TODAY...GENERAL SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE HIGH SHOULD PROVIDE A
SUNNY DAY. A MOIST LAYER WITH 75 PERCENT RH WILL LINGER BETWEEN
850 AND 900 MB WITH MIXING EXPECTED TO REACH TO 900 MB OR A LITTLE
ABOVE. THIS SHOULD AGAIN GENERATE DIURNAL CUMULUS LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER WILL SUPPORT
MAX SFC TEMPS OF 73 TO 79F...A FEW SPOTS MAY TOUCH 80F. SOUTH
WINDS COMING OFF THE OCEAN WILL KEEP THE SOUTH COAST A LITTLE
COOLER...70 TO 75F. WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL BE AROUND 15-18
KNOTS...SO EXPECT SOME GUSTS TO THIS RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING WARMER MORE
HUMID AIR TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MEAN INCREASING CLOUDS AS
THE HIGHER HUMIDITY AIR RIDES UP OVER THE COOLER AIRMASS AT THE
SURFACE. THE MOIST LAYER WILL BE CONCENTRATED BELOW 950 MB WITH
AT BEST WEAK LIFT...SO EXPECT CLOUDS AND FOG WITH SOME DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL START THE DAY OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. AN 85-90 KNOT JET WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM EAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND BY LATER IN THE DAY. THE DYNAMICALLY FAVORABLE ZONES
FOR LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET WILL BE WELL TO OUR WEST IN THE
MORNING...BUT THEN SHIFT INTO OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE BEST SUPPORT IN WESTERN MASS/SOUTHERN NH LATE IN THE DAY.

CLOUDS MAY THIN IN THE MORNING BUT SHOULD THICKEN AGAIN THROUGH
THE DAY AS SHORTWAVE AND ITS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVE IN. LAPSE RATE
IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER IS SO-SO AT 5.5C/KM. TOTALS CLIMB TO THE
MID 40S. WINDS AT 850 MB REACH 30 KNOTS WHILE 500 MB WINDS REACH
40-45 KNOTS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB THROUGH THE DAY
WITH AFTERNOON VALUES OF 2.0 TO 2.25 INCHES...MOVE THAN 2 STD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND POTENTIALLY NEAR 3.

THIS FAVORS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW PRETTY
GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...THOUGH SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES WORK IN BEGINNING AROUND THE TUESDAY TIMEFRAME THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK AS THE FLAT UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES TENDING TO CAUSE OPERATIONAL MODEL
RUNS TO EXACERBATE TIMING ISSUES WITH FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN THIS
FLOW.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST STARTS OFF
WITH RATHER HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FROM THE NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC IN
THE NORTHERN STREAM WIND FLOW...WHILE A TROUGH DIGS OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. OVERALL...THIS NORTHERN STREAM HAS BEEN GENERALLY
FLATTER THAN THE LAST SEVERAL MONTHS /WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE SLOW
MOVING PATTERNS/...WHICH SIGNALS A FASTER FLOW OF SURFACE SYSTEMS
WITHIN THIS FLOW. EARLY IN THIS FORECAST...WILL SEE A SHORT WAVE
RIDE ACROSS IN THE FLATTER PORTION OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
REGION... WHICH WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS INTO THE HOLIDAY.
ONCE THIS MOVES E...EXPECT A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. ONE THING THAT IS
CONSISTENT IS A CONTINUED MILDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURE REGIME
WITH RATHER HIGH HUMIDITY TO START OFF...THEN WILL SLOWLY DROP BUT
REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCOMFORTABLE...OUR SHOT FOR LATE SUMMER
CONDITIONS.

LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS
A PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS CONTINUES. FROM LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK...TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE ENSEMBLE MEANS WHICH
HAVE BEEN MORE STABLE THAN THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS DUE TO
TIMING ISSUES WITH THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST BEYOND EARLY TUESDAY.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
EXPECT SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
THIS TIMEFRAME AS AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND SURFACE REFLECTION
REMAINS PARALLEL TO THE SW UPPER FLOW. AS THE FLOW FLATTENS OUT
LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT...THE LEFTOVER ENERGY WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
BUT MAY LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL HIGH PWATS...ON ORDER OF 2.2 TO 2.3
INCHES...SO SOME RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN PRETTY DRY OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL WEEKS...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SPOTS THAT DID HAVE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AROUND 8/27-28 /CENTRAL MA AND S CENTRAL
CT/. THERE MAY BE A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS THAT ARE PRONE TO POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING THAT MIGHT HAVE SOME PROBLEMS SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...BUT ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY FOR THIS. ALSO NOTING H85
WINDS UP TO 35-40 KT...SO SOME COULD MIX DOWN WITH ANY STORMS
EARLY SUN NIGHT ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

SHOULD START TO SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS S NH/N MA EARLY
MON NIGHT...THEN WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. ONLY QUESTION
WILL BE TIMING THE PRECIP EXIT ALONG THE S COAST...WHICH IT MAY
LINGER A BIT LONGER. SHOULD SEE THIS AREA IMPROVE AROUND OR AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

EXPECT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH S-SW WINDS IN PLACE. DEWPTS
WILL BE STEAMY...IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE...THOUGH MAY DROP A
BIT INLAND AS CONDITIONS IMPROVE MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
ANOTHER FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH TOWARD THE REGION. WILL SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE THE
BEST ENERGY AND DYNAMICS OCCUR. CAN NOT RULE OUT A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER
LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL LIFT NE TUE NIGHT.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER-
MID 80S. IT WILL REMAIN STICKY TUE NIGHT...THOUGH DEWPTS MAY DROP
A FEW DEGS WELL INLAND.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THIS
TIMEFRAME. WITH CONTINUED W-SW WINDS IN PLACE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN
SEVERAL DEGS WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. DOES
LOOK LIKE DEWPTS WILL BE A BIT MORE COMFORTABLE ON THURSDAY...
FORECAST IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 /VS. 65 TO 70 EARLY IN THE
WEEK/. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOWER-MID 80S.

MAY SEE ANOTHER FRONT TRY TO APPROACH LATER FRIDAY...THOUGH
TIMING IS IN QUESTION. HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST DURING THE DAY FOR
NOW...BUT MIGHT SEE SOME SHOWERS TRY TO MOVE IN FRI NIGHT. LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

10 AM UPDATE...

CHANGE FROM THE 12Z TAFS WILL BE TO TRANSITION FROM VFR TO MVFR AS
CIGS BKN015-025 DEVELOP INTO THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...GENERALLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR-IFR THROUGH 13Z-14Z IN NORMALLY
PRONE AREAS OF S NH/NE CT/E INTERIOR MA. EXPECT LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM
WINDS AT 12Z TO BECOME S AT 5-10 KT.

TONIGHT...VFR EARLY. INCREASING RISK OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN
DEVELOPING CLOUD COVER AND FOG/DRIZZLE...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY...
MVFR/IFR EARLY IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. VSBY SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
DURING THE MORNING EXCEPT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WHERE IFR MAY
LINGER. MVFR AND LOW-END VFR CEILINGS AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON...MOSTLY IN THE CT VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NH. POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

LOW END VFR GENERALLY...THOUGH WILL SEE POCKETS OF MVFR-IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN AREAS OF SHOWERS. POSSIBLE TSRA AT SOME TERMINALS
ESPECIALLY INLAND EARLY SUN NIGHT. S-SW WINDS CONTINUE. PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPS WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MAINLY LOW END
VFR CONDITIONS. SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR TUE
AFTERNOON/EARLY TUE NIGHT...THEN SHOULD LIFT NE. LOW RISK FOR
TSRA. WINDS VEER TO W LATE TUE NIGHT. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR. PATCHY FOG EARLY WED MORNING WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR
VSBYS WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL MEAN FAIR SKIES AND
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE.

TONIGHT...
WARM HUMID AIR MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH AND ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS
WOULD FAVOR PATCHY FOG AND POSSIBLY LIGHT DRIZZLE.

SUNDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WIND WITH GUSTS 20-22 KNOTS.
BUILDING SEAS...BUT HEIGHTS BELOW 5 FEET UNTIL EVENING.
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP WEST AND NORTHWEST OF MASSACHUSETTS.
THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE THESE COULD REACH THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY
WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT. MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS CLOSE TO 25
KT ON THE OUTER WATERS SUN NIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT MAINLY
ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SW WINDS WILL
VEER TO W LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/NOCERA/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 301358
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
958 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY. WARMER MORE
HUMID AIR WILL THEN MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH WITH SUMMERTIME
HUMIDITY STARTING SUNDAY. A FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER FAST MOVING FRONT MAY BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER LATE NEXT WEEK WITH DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

ONLY CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE REGION...AS LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
PATCHY FOG FROM LAST NIGHT IS NOW LIFTING INTO A DECK OF STRATO-
CU. 12Z UPSTREAM SOUNDING FROM EASTERN LONG ISLAND DEPICTS LOTS OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THIS EXPECT
CLOUDS TO BECOME MORE ABUNDANT INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER SHOULD
STILL SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUN. OVERALL STILL A PLEASANT LATE SUMMER
DAY. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

================================================================

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOR TODAY...GENERAL SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE HIGH SHOULD PROVIDE A
SUNNY DAY. A MOIST LAYER WITH 75 PERCENT RH WILL LINGER BETWEEN
850 AND 900 MB WITH MIXING EXPECTED TO REACH TO 900 MB OR A LITTLE
ABOVE. THIS SHOULD AGAIN GENERATE DIURNAL CUMULUS LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER WILL SUPPORT
MAX SFC TEMPS OF 73 TO 79F...A FEW SPOTS MAY TOUCH 80F. SOUTH
WINDS COMING OFF THE OCEAN WILL KEEP THE SOUTH COAST A LITTLE
COOLER...70 TO 75F. WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL BE AROUND 15-18
KNOTS...SO EXPECT SOME GUSTS TO THIS RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING WARMER MORE
HUMID AIR TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MEAN INCREASING CLOUDS AS
THE HIGHER HUMIDITY AIR RIDES UP OVER THE COOLER AIRMASS AT THE
SURFACE. THE MOIST LAYER WILL BE CONCENTRATED BELOW 950 MB WITH
AT BEST WEAK LIFT...SO EXPECT CLOUDS AND FOG WITH SOME DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL START THE DAY OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. AN 85-90 KNOT JET WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM EAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND BY LATER IN THE DAY. THE DYNAMICALLY FAVORABLE ZONES
FOR LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET WILL BE WELL TO OUR WEST IN THE
MORNING...BUT THEN SHIFT INTO OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE BEST SUPPORT IN WESTERN MASS/SOUTHERN NH LATE IN THE DAY.

CLOUDS MAY THIN IN THE MORNING BUT SHOULD THICKEN AGAIN THROUGH
THE DAY AS SHORTWAVE AND ITS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVE IN. LAPSE RATE
IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER IS SO-SO AT 5.5C/KM. TOTALS CLIMB TO THE
MID 40S. WINDS AT 850 MB REACH 30 KNOTS WHILE 500 MB WINDS REACH
40-45 KNOTS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB THROUGH THE DAY
WITH AFTERNOON VALUES OF 2.0 TO 2.25 INCHES...MOVE THAN 2 STD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND POTENTIALLY NEAR 3.

THIS FAVORS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW PRETTY
GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...THOUGH SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES WORK IN BEGINNING AROUND THE TUESDAY TIMEFRAME THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK AS THE FLAT UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES TENDING TO CAUSE OPERATIONAL MODEL
RUNS TO EXACERBATE TIMING ISSUES WITH FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN THIS
FLOW.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST STARTS OFF
WITH RATHER HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FROM THE NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC IN
THE NORTHERN STREAM WIND FLOW...WHILE A TROUGH DIGS OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. OVERALL...THIS NORTHERN STREAM HAS BEEN GENERALLY
FLATTER THAN THE LAST SEVERAL MONTHS /WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE SLOW
MOVING PATTERNS/...WHICH SIGNALS A FASTER FLOW OF SURFACE SYSTEMS
WITHIN THIS FLOW. EARLY IN THIS FORECAST...WILL SEE A SHORT WAVE
RIDE ACROSS IN THE FLATTER PORTION OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
REGION... WHICH WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS INTO THE HOLIDAY.
ONCE THIS MOVES E...EXPECT A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. ONE THING THAT IS
CONSISTENT IS A CONTINUED MILDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURE REGIME
WITH RATHER HIGH HUMIDITY TO START OFF...THEN WILL SLOWLY DROP BUT
REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCOMFORTABLE...OUR SHOT FOR LATE SUMMER
CONDITIONS.

LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS
A PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS CONTINUES. FROM LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK...TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE ENSEMBLE MEANS WHICH
HAVE BEEN MORE STABLE THAN THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS DUE TO
TIMING ISSUES WITH THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST BEYOND EARLY TUESDAY.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
EXPECT SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
THIS TIMEFRAME AS AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND SURFACE REFLECTION
REMAINS PARALLEL TO THE SW UPPER FLOW. AS THE FLOW FLATTENS OUT
LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT...THE LEFTOVER ENERGY WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
BUT MAY LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL HIGH PWATS...ON ORDER OF 2.2 TO 2.3
INCHES...SO SOME RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN PRETTY DRY OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL WEEKS...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SPOTS THAT DID HAVE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AROUND 8/27-28 /CENTRAL MA AND S CENTRAL
CT/. THERE MAY BE A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS THAT ARE PRONE TO POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING THAT MIGHT HAVE SOME PROBLEMS SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...BUT ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY FOR THIS. ALSO NOTING H85
WINDS UP TO 35-40 KT...SO SOME COULD MIX DOWN WITH ANY STORMS
EARLY SUN NIGHT ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

SHOULD START TO SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS S NH/N MA EARLY
MON NIGHT...THEN WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. ONLY QUESTION
WILL BE TIMING THE PRECIP EXIT ALONG THE S COAST...WHICH IT MAY
LINGER A BIT LONGER. SHOULD SEE THIS AREA IMPROVE AROUND OR AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

EXPECT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH S-SW WINDS IN PLACE. DEWPTS
WILL BE STEAMY...IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE...THOUGH MAY DROP A
BIT INLAND AS CONDITIONS IMPROVE MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
ANOTHER FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH TOWARD THE REGION. WILL SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE THE
BEST ENERGY AND DYNAMICS OCCUR. CAN NOT RULE OUT A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER
LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL LIFT NE TUE NIGHT.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER-
MID 80S. IT WILL REMAIN STICKY TUE NIGHT...THOUGH DEWPTS MAY DROP
A FEW DEGS WELL INLAND.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THIS
TIMEFRAME. WITH CONTINUED W-SW WINDS IN PLACE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN
SEVERAL DEGS WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. DOES
LOOK LIKE DEWPTS WILL BE A BIT MORE COMFORTABLE ON THURSDAY...
FORECAST IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 /VS. 65 TO 70 EARLY IN THE
WEEK/. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOWER-MID 80S.

MAY SEE ANOTHER FRONT TRY TO APPROACH LATER FRIDAY...THOUGH
TIMING IS IN QUESTION. HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST DURING THE DAY FOR
NOW...BUT MIGHT SEE SOME SHOWERS TRY TO MOVE IN FRI NIGHT. LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

10 AM UPDATE...

CHANGE FROM THE 12Z TAFS WILL BE TO TRANSITION FROM VFR TO MVFR AS
CIGS BKN015-025 DEVELOP INTO THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...GENERALLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR-IFR THROUGH 13Z-14Z IN NORMALLY
PRONE AREAS OF S NH/NE CT/E INTERIOR MA. EXPECT LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM
WINDS AT 12Z TO BECOME S AT 5-10 KT.

TONIGHT...VFR EARLY. INCREASING RISK OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN
DEVELOPING CLOUD COVER AND FOG/DRIZZLE...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY...
MVFR/IFR EARLY IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. VSBY SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
DURING THE MORNING EXCEPT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WHERE IFR MAY
LINGER. MVFR AND LOW-END VFR CEILINGS AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON...MOSTLY IN THE CT VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NH. POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

LOW END VFR GENERALLY...THOUGH WILL SEE POCKETS OF MVFR-IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN AREAS OF SHOWERS. POSSIBLE TSRA AT SOME TERMINALS
ESPECIALLY INLAND EARLY SUN NIGHT. S-SW WINDS CONTINUE. PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPS WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MAINLY LOW END
VFR CONDITIONS. SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR TUE
AFTERNOON/EARLY TUE NIGHT...THEN SHOULD LIFT NE. LOW RISK FOR
TSRA. WINDS VEER TO W LATE TUE NIGHT. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR. PATCHY FOG EARLY WED MORNING WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR
VSBYS WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL MEAN FAIR SKIES AND
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE.

TONIGHT...
WARM HUMID AIR MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH AND ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS
WOULD FAVOR PATCHY FOG AND POSSIBLY LIGHT DRIZZLE.

SUNDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WIND WITH GUSTS 20-22 KNOTS.
BUILDING SEAS...BUT HEIGHTS BELOW 5 FEET UNTIL EVENING.
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP WEST AND NORTHWEST OF MASSACHUSETTS.
THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE THESE COULD REACH THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY
WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT. MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS CLOSE TO 25
KT ON THE OUTER WATERS SUN NIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT MAINLY
ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SW WINDS WILL
VEER TO W LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/NOCERA/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 301130
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
730 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY. WARMER MORE
HUMID AIR WILL THEN MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH
SUMMERTIME HUMIDITY STARTING SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
A FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER FAST MOVING
FRONT MAY BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY...
MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER LATE NEXT WEEK
WITH DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
725 AM UPDATE...
A FEW OF THE NORMALLY PRONE SPOTS REPORTED LOW CLOUDS AND BRIEF
PATCHY FOG AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING...AND SOME STILL HAVE SOME
LOW CLOUDS AT 11Z. EXPECT THIS TO BURN OFF BY MID MORNING...THEN
WILL SEE HIGH CLOUDS FILTER IN THROUGH MIDDAY. WILL ALSO SEE SOME
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOP DURING THE DAY.

WITH THE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...SOME SPOTS ACROSS THE
REGION WERE DOWN RIGHT CHILLY. AT 6 AM...KMVY REPORTED AT TEMP OF
39 DEGREES! OTHER COOL SPOTS INCLUDED 44 DEGREES AT KTAN...45 AT
KOWD...47 AT KEWB...48 DEGS AT KPVC AND 49 AT KPYM. EXPECT
READINGS TO REBOUND QUICKLY AS S WINDS PICK UP THIS MORNING.

REMAINDER OF GRIDS WERE IN GOOD SHAPE...BUT HAVE UPDATED TO BRING
CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOR TODAY...GENERAL SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE HIGH SHOULD PROVIDE A
SUNNY DAY. A MOIST LAYER WITH 75 PERCENT RH WILL LINGER BETWEEN
850 AND 900 MB WITH MIXING EXPECTED TO REACH TO 900 MB OR A LITTLE
ABOVE. THIS SHOULD AGAIN GENERATE DIURNAL CUMULUS LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER WILL SUPPORT
MAX SFC TEMPS OF 73 TO 79F...A FEW SPOTS MAY TOUCH 80F. SOUTH
WINDS COMING OFF THE OCEAN WILL KEEP THE SOUTH COAST A LITTLE
COOLER...70 TO 75F. WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL BE AROUND 15-18
KNOTS...SO EXPECT SOME GUSTS TO THIS RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING WARMER MORE
HUMID AIR TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MEAN INCREASING CLOUDS AS
THE HIGHER HUMIDITY AIR RIDES UP OVER THE COOLER AIRMASS AT THE
SURFACE. THE MOIST LAYER WILL BE CONCENTRATED BELOW 950 MB WITH
AT BEST WEAK LIFT...SO EXPECT CLOUDS AND FOG WITH SOME DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL START THE DAY OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. AN 85-90 KNOT JET WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM EAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND BY LATER IN THE DAY. THE DYNAMICALLY FAVORABLE ZONES
FOR LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET WILL BE WELL TO OUR WEST IN THE
MORNING...BUT THEN SHIFT INTO OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE BEST SUPPORT IN WESTERN MASS/SOUTHERN NH LATE IN THE DAY.

CLOUDS MAY THIN IN THE MORNING BUT SHOULD THICKEN AGAIN THROUGH
THE DAY AS SHORTWAVE AND ITS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVE IN. LAPSE RATE
IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER IS SO-SO AT 5.5C/KM. TOTALS CLIMB TO THE
MID 40S. WINDS AT 850 MB REACH 30 KNOTS WHILE 500 MB WINDS REACH
40-45 KNOTS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB THROUGH THE DAY
WITH AFTERNOON VALUES OF 2.0 TO 2.25 INCHES...MOVE THAN 2 STD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND POTENTIALLY NEAR 3.

THIS FAVORS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW PRETTY
GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...THOUGH SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES WORK IN BEGINNING AROUND THE TUESDAY TIMEFRAME THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK AS THE FLAT UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES TENDING TO CAUSE OPERATIONAL MODEL
RUNS TO EXACERBATE TIMING ISSUES WITH FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN THIS
FLOW.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST STARTS OFF
WITH RATHER HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FROM THE NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC IN
THE NORTHERN STREAM WIND FLOW...WHILE A TROUGH DIGS OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. OVERALL...THIS NORTHERN STREAM HAS BEEN GENERALLY
FLATTER THAN THE LAST SEVERAL MONTHS /WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE SLOW
MOVING PATTERNS/...WHICH SIGNALS A FASTER FLOW OF SURFACE SYSTEMS
WITHIN THIS FLOW. EARLY IN THIS FORECAST...WILL SEE A SHORT WAVE
RIDE ACROSS IN THE FLATTER PORTION OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
REGION... WHICH WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS INTO THE HOLIDAY.
ONCE THIS MOVES E...EXPECT A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. ONE THING THAT IS
CONSISTENT IS A CONTINUED MILDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURE REGIME
WITH RATHER HIGH HUMIDITY TO START OFF...THEN WILL SLOWLY DROP BUT
REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCOMFORTABLE...OUR SHOT FOR LATE SUMMER
CONDITIONS.

LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS
A PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS CONTINUES. FROM LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK...TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE ENSEMBLE MEANS WHICH
HAVE BEEN MORE STABLE THAN THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS DUE TO
TIMING ISSUES WITH THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST BEYOND EARLY TUESDAY.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
EXPECT SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
THIS TIMEFRAME AS AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND SURFACE REFLECTION
REMAINS PARALLEL TO THE SW UPPER FLOW. AS THE FLOW FLATTENS OUT
LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT...THE LEFTOVER ENERGY WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
BUT MAY LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL HIGH PWATS...ON ORDER OF 2.2 TO 2.3
INCHES...SO SOME RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN PRETTY DRY OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL WEEKS...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SPOTS THAT DID HAVE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AROUND 8/27-28 /CENTRAL MA AND S CENTRAL
CT/. THERE MAY BE A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS THAT ARE PRONE TO POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING THAT MIGHT HAVE SOME PROBLEMS SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...BUT ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY FOR THIS. ALSO NOTING H85
WINDS UP TO 35-40 KT...SO SOME COULD MIX DOWN WITH ANY STORMS
EARLY SUN NIGHT ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

SHOULD START TO SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS S NH/N MA EARLY
MON NIGHT...THEN WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. ONLY QUESTION
WILL BE TIMING THE PRECIP EXIT ALONG THE S COAST...WHICH IT MAY
LINGER A BIT LONGER. SHOULD SEE THIS AREA IMPROVE AROUND OR AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

EXPECT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH S-SW WINDS IN PLACE. DEWPTS
WILL BE STEAMY...IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE...THOUGH MAY DROP A
BIT INLAND AS CONDITIONS IMPROVE MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
ANOTHER FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH TOWARD THE REGION. WILL SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE THE
BEST ENERGY AND DYNAMICS OCCUR. CAN NOT RULE OUT A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER
LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL LIFT NE TUE NIGHT.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER-
MID 80S. IT WILL REMAIN STICKY TUE NIGHT...THOUGH DEWPTS MAY DROP
A FEW DEGS WELL INLAND.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THIS
TIMEFRAME. WITH CONTINUED W-SW WINDS IN PLACE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN
SEVERAL DEGS WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. DOES
LOOK LIKE DEWPTS WILL BE A BIT MORE COMFORTABLE ON THURSDAY...
FORECAST IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 /VS. 65 TO 70 EARLY IN THE
WEEK/. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOWER-MID 80S.

MAY SEE ANOTHER FRONT TRY TO APPROACH LATER FRIDAY...THOUGH
TIMING IS IN QUESTION. HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST DURING THE DAY FOR
NOW...BUT MIGHT SEE SOME SHOWERS TRY TO MOVE IN FRI NIGHT. LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...GENERALLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR-IFR THROUGH 13Z-14Z IN NORMALLY
PRONE AREAS OF S NH/NE CT/E INTERIOR MA. EXPECT LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM
WINDS AT 12Z TO BECOME S AT 5-10 KT.

TONIGHT...VFR EARLY. INCREASING RISK OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN
DEVELOPING CLOUD COVER AND FOG/DRIZZLE...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY...
MVFR/IFR EARLY IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. VSBY SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
DURING THE MORNING EXCEPT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WHERE IFR MAY
LINGER. MVFR AND LOW-END VFR CEILINGS AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON...MOSTLY IN THE CT VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NH. POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

LOW END VFR GENERALLY...THOUGH WILL SEE POCKETS OF MVFR-IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN AREAS OF SHOWERS. POSSIBLE TSRA AT SOME TERMINALS
ESPECIALLY INLAND EARLY SUN NIGHT. S-SW WINDS CONTINUE. PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPS WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MAINLY LOW END
VFR CONDITIONS. SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR TUE
AFTERNOON/EARLY TUE NIGHT...THEN SHOULD LIFT NE. LOW RISK FOR
TSRA. WINDS VEER TO W LATE TUE NIGHT. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR. PATCHY FOG EARLY WED MORNING WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR
VSBYS WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL MEAN FAIR SKIES AND
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE.

TONIGHT...
WARM HUMID AIR MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH AND ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS
WOULD FAVOR PATCHY FOG AND POSSIBLY LIGHT DRIZZLE.

SUNDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WIND WITH GUSTS 20-22 KNOTS.
BUILDING SEAS...BUT HEIGHTS BELOW 5 FEET UNTIL EVENING.
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP WEST AND NORTHWEST OF MASSACHUSETTS.
THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE THESE COULD REACH THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY
WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT. MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS CLOSE TO 25
KT ON THE OUTER WATERS SUN NIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT MAINLY
ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SW WINDS WILL
VEER TO W LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 301130
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
730 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY. WARMER MORE
HUMID AIR WILL THEN MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH
SUMMERTIME HUMIDITY STARTING SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
A FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER FAST MOVING
FRONT MAY BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY...
MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER LATE NEXT WEEK
WITH DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
725 AM UPDATE...
A FEW OF THE NORMALLY PRONE SPOTS REPORTED LOW CLOUDS AND BRIEF
PATCHY FOG AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING...AND SOME STILL HAVE SOME
LOW CLOUDS AT 11Z. EXPECT THIS TO BURN OFF BY MID MORNING...THEN
WILL SEE HIGH CLOUDS FILTER IN THROUGH MIDDAY. WILL ALSO SEE SOME
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOP DURING THE DAY.

WITH THE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...SOME SPOTS ACROSS THE
REGION WERE DOWN RIGHT CHILLY. AT 6 AM...KMVY REPORTED AT TEMP OF
39 DEGREES! OTHER COOL SPOTS INCLUDED 44 DEGREES AT KTAN...45 AT
KOWD...47 AT KEWB...48 DEGS AT KPVC AND 49 AT KPYM. EXPECT
READINGS TO REBOUND QUICKLY AS S WINDS PICK UP THIS MORNING.

REMAINDER OF GRIDS WERE IN GOOD SHAPE...BUT HAVE UPDATED TO BRING
CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOR TODAY...GENERAL SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE HIGH SHOULD PROVIDE A
SUNNY DAY. A MOIST LAYER WITH 75 PERCENT RH WILL LINGER BETWEEN
850 AND 900 MB WITH MIXING EXPECTED TO REACH TO 900 MB OR A LITTLE
ABOVE. THIS SHOULD AGAIN GENERATE DIURNAL CUMULUS LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER WILL SUPPORT
MAX SFC TEMPS OF 73 TO 79F...A FEW SPOTS MAY TOUCH 80F. SOUTH
WINDS COMING OFF THE OCEAN WILL KEEP THE SOUTH COAST A LITTLE
COOLER...70 TO 75F. WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL BE AROUND 15-18
KNOTS...SO EXPECT SOME GUSTS TO THIS RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING WARMER MORE
HUMID AIR TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MEAN INCREASING CLOUDS AS
THE HIGHER HUMIDITY AIR RIDES UP OVER THE COOLER AIRMASS AT THE
SURFACE. THE MOIST LAYER WILL BE CONCENTRATED BELOW 950 MB WITH
AT BEST WEAK LIFT...SO EXPECT CLOUDS AND FOG WITH SOME DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL START THE DAY OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. AN 85-90 KNOT JET WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM EAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND BY LATER IN THE DAY. THE DYNAMICALLY FAVORABLE ZONES
FOR LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET WILL BE WELL TO OUR WEST IN THE
MORNING...BUT THEN SHIFT INTO OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE BEST SUPPORT IN WESTERN MASS/SOUTHERN NH LATE IN THE DAY.

CLOUDS MAY THIN IN THE MORNING BUT SHOULD THICKEN AGAIN THROUGH
THE DAY AS SHORTWAVE AND ITS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVE IN. LAPSE RATE
IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER IS SO-SO AT 5.5C/KM. TOTALS CLIMB TO THE
MID 40S. WINDS AT 850 MB REACH 30 KNOTS WHILE 500 MB WINDS REACH
40-45 KNOTS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB THROUGH THE DAY
WITH AFTERNOON VALUES OF 2.0 TO 2.25 INCHES...MOVE THAN 2 STD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND POTENTIALLY NEAR 3.

THIS FAVORS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW PRETTY
GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...THOUGH SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES WORK IN BEGINNING AROUND THE TUESDAY TIMEFRAME THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK AS THE FLAT UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES TENDING TO CAUSE OPERATIONAL MODEL
RUNS TO EXACERBATE TIMING ISSUES WITH FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN THIS
FLOW.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST STARTS OFF
WITH RATHER HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FROM THE NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC IN
THE NORTHERN STREAM WIND FLOW...WHILE A TROUGH DIGS OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. OVERALL...THIS NORTHERN STREAM HAS BEEN GENERALLY
FLATTER THAN THE LAST SEVERAL MONTHS /WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE SLOW
MOVING PATTERNS/...WHICH SIGNALS A FASTER FLOW OF SURFACE SYSTEMS
WITHIN THIS FLOW. EARLY IN THIS FORECAST...WILL SEE A SHORT WAVE
RIDE ACROSS IN THE FLATTER PORTION OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
REGION... WHICH WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS INTO THE HOLIDAY.
ONCE THIS MOVES E...EXPECT A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. ONE THING THAT IS
CONSISTENT IS A CONTINUED MILDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURE REGIME
WITH RATHER HIGH HUMIDITY TO START OFF...THEN WILL SLOWLY DROP BUT
REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCOMFORTABLE...OUR SHOT FOR LATE SUMMER
CONDITIONS.

LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS
A PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS CONTINUES. FROM LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK...TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE ENSEMBLE MEANS WHICH
HAVE BEEN MORE STABLE THAN THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS DUE TO
TIMING ISSUES WITH THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST BEYOND EARLY TUESDAY.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
EXPECT SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
THIS TIMEFRAME AS AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND SURFACE REFLECTION
REMAINS PARALLEL TO THE SW UPPER FLOW. AS THE FLOW FLATTENS OUT
LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT...THE LEFTOVER ENERGY WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
BUT MAY LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL HIGH PWATS...ON ORDER OF 2.2 TO 2.3
INCHES...SO SOME RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN PRETTY DRY OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL WEEKS...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SPOTS THAT DID HAVE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AROUND 8/27-28 /CENTRAL MA AND S CENTRAL
CT/. THERE MAY BE A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS THAT ARE PRONE TO POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING THAT MIGHT HAVE SOME PROBLEMS SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...BUT ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY FOR THIS. ALSO NOTING H85
WINDS UP TO 35-40 KT...SO SOME COULD MIX DOWN WITH ANY STORMS
EARLY SUN NIGHT ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

SHOULD START TO SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS S NH/N MA EARLY
MON NIGHT...THEN WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. ONLY QUESTION
WILL BE TIMING THE PRECIP EXIT ALONG THE S COAST...WHICH IT MAY
LINGER A BIT LONGER. SHOULD SEE THIS AREA IMPROVE AROUND OR AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

EXPECT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH S-SW WINDS IN PLACE. DEWPTS
WILL BE STEAMY...IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE...THOUGH MAY DROP A
BIT INLAND AS CONDITIONS IMPROVE MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
ANOTHER FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH TOWARD THE REGION. WILL SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE THE
BEST ENERGY AND DYNAMICS OCCUR. CAN NOT RULE OUT A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER
LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL LIFT NE TUE NIGHT.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER-
MID 80S. IT WILL REMAIN STICKY TUE NIGHT...THOUGH DEWPTS MAY DROP
A FEW DEGS WELL INLAND.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THIS
TIMEFRAME. WITH CONTINUED W-SW WINDS IN PLACE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN
SEVERAL DEGS WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. DOES
LOOK LIKE DEWPTS WILL BE A BIT MORE COMFORTABLE ON THURSDAY...
FORECAST IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 /VS. 65 TO 70 EARLY IN THE
WEEK/. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOWER-MID 80S.

MAY SEE ANOTHER FRONT TRY TO APPROACH LATER FRIDAY...THOUGH
TIMING IS IN QUESTION. HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST DURING THE DAY FOR
NOW...BUT MIGHT SEE SOME SHOWERS TRY TO MOVE IN FRI NIGHT. LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...GENERALLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR-IFR THROUGH 13Z-14Z IN NORMALLY
PRONE AREAS OF S NH/NE CT/E INTERIOR MA. EXPECT LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM
WINDS AT 12Z TO BECOME S AT 5-10 KT.

TONIGHT...VFR EARLY. INCREASING RISK OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN
DEVELOPING CLOUD COVER AND FOG/DRIZZLE...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY...
MVFR/IFR EARLY IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. VSBY SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
DURING THE MORNING EXCEPT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WHERE IFR MAY
LINGER. MVFR AND LOW-END VFR CEILINGS AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON...MOSTLY IN THE CT VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NH. POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

LOW END VFR GENERALLY...THOUGH WILL SEE POCKETS OF MVFR-IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN AREAS OF SHOWERS. POSSIBLE TSRA AT SOME TERMINALS
ESPECIALLY INLAND EARLY SUN NIGHT. S-SW WINDS CONTINUE. PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPS WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MAINLY LOW END
VFR CONDITIONS. SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR TUE
AFTERNOON/EARLY TUE NIGHT...THEN SHOULD LIFT NE. LOW RISK FOR
TSRA. WINDS VEER TO W LATE TUE NIGHT. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR. PATCHY FOG EARLY WED MORNING WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR
VSBYS WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL MEAN FAIR SKIES AND
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE.

TONIGHT...
WARM HUMID AIR MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH AND ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS
WOULD FAVOR PATCHY FOG AND POSSIBLY LIGHT DRIZZLE.

SUNDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WIND WITH GUSTS 20-22 KNOTS.
BUILDING SEAS...BUT HEIGHTS BELOW 5 FEET UNTIL EVENING.
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP WEST AND NORTHWEST OF MASSACHUSETTS.
THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE THESE COULD REACH THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY
WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT. MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS CLOSE TO 25
KT ON THE OUTER WATERS SUN NIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT MAINLY
ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SW WINDS WILL
VEER TO W LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 301130
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
730 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY. WARMER MORE
HUMID AIR WILL THEN MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH
SUMMERTIME HUMIDITY STARTING SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
A FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER FAST MOVING
FRONT MAY BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY...
MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER LATE NEXT WEEK
WITH DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
725 AM UPDATE...
A FEW OF THE NORMALLY PRONE SPOTS REPORTED LOW CLOUDS AND BRIEF
PATCHY FOG AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING...AND SOME STILL HAVE SOME
LOW CLOUDS AT 11Z. EXPECT THIS TO BURN OFF BY MID MORNING...THEN
WILL SEE HIGH CLOUDS FILTER IN THROUGH MIDDAY. WILL ALSO SEE SOME
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOP DURING THE DAY.

WITH THE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...SOME SPOTS ACROSS THE
REGION WERE DOWN RIGHT CHILLY. AT 6 AM...KMVY REPORTED AT TEMP OF
39 DEGREES! OTHER COOL SPOTS INCLUDED 44 DEGREES AT KTAN...45 AT
KOWD...47 AT KEWB...48 DEGS AT KPVC AND 49 AT KPYM. EXPECT
READINGS TO REBOUND QUICKLY AS S WINDS PICK UP THIS MORNING.

REMAINDER OF GRIDS WERE IN GOOD SHAPE...BUT HAVE UPDATED TO BRING
CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOR TODAY...GENERAL SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE HIGH SHOULD PROVIDE A
SUNNY DAY. A MOIST LAYER WITH 75 PERCENT RH WILL LINGER BETWEEN
850 AND 900 MB WITH MIXING EXPECTED TO REACH TO 900 MB OR A LITTLE
ABOVE. THIS SHOULD AGAIN GENERATE DIURNAL CUMULUS LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER WILL SUPPORT
MAX SFC TEMPS OF 73 TO 79F...A FEW SPOTS MAY TOUCH 80F. SOUTH
WINDS COMING OFF THE OCEAN WILL KEEP THE SOUTH COAST A LITTLE
COOLER...70 TO 75F. WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL BE AROUND 15-18
KNOTS...SO EXPECT SOME GUSTS TO THIS RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING WARMER MORE
HUMID AIR TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MEAN INCREASING CLOUDS AS
THE HIGHER HUMIDITY AIR RIDES UP OVER THE COOLER AIRMASS AT THE
SURFACE. THE MOIST LAYER WILL BE CONCENTRATED BELOW 950 MB WITH
AT BEST WEAK LIFT...SO EXPECT CLOUDS AND FOG WITH SOME DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL START THE DAY OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. AN 85-90 KNOT JET WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM EAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND BY LATER IN THE DAY. THE DYNAMICALLY FAVORABLE ZONES
FOR LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET WILL BE WELL TO OUR WEST IN THE
MORNING...BUT THEN SHIFT INTO OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE BEST SUPPORT IN WESTERN MASS/SOUTHERN NH LATE IN THE DAY.

CLOUDS MAY THIN IN THE MORNING BUT SHOULD THICKEN AGAIN THROUGH
THE DAY AS SHORTWAVE AND ITS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVE IN. LAPSE RATE
IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER IS SO-SO AT 5.5C/KM. TOTALS CLIMB TO THE
MID 40S. WINDS AT 850 MB REACH 30 KNOTS WHILE 500 MB WINDS REACH
40-45 KNOTS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB THROUGH THE DAY
WITH AFTERNOON VALUES OF 2.0 TO 2.25 INCHES...MOVE THAN 2 STD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND POTENTIALLY NEAR 3.

THIS FAVORS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW PRETTY
GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...THOUGH SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES WORK IN BEGINNING AROUND THE TUESDAY TIMEFRAME THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK AS THE FLAT UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES TENDING TO CAUSE OPERATIONAL MODEL
RUNS TO EXACERBATE TIMING ISSUES WITH FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN THIS
FLOW.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST STARTS OFF
WITH RATHER HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FROM THE NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC IN
THE NORTHERN STREAM WIND FLOW...WHILE A TROUGH DIGS OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. OVERALL...THIS NORTHERN STREAM HAS BEEN GENERALLY
FLATTER THAN THE LAST SEVERAL MONTHS /WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE SLOW
MOVING PATTERNS/...WHICH SIGNALS A FASTER FLOW OF SURFACE SYSTEMS
WITHIN THIS FLOW. EARLY IN THIS FORECAST...WILL SEE A SHORT WAVE
RIDE ACROSS IN THE FLATTER PORTION OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
REGION... WHICH WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS INTO THE HOLIDAY.
ONCE THIS MOVES E...EXPECT A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. ONE THING THAT IS
CONSISTENT IS A CONTINUED MILDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURE REGIME
WITH RATHER HIGH HUMIDITY TO START OFF...THEN WILL SLOWLY DROP BUT
REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCOMFORTABLE...OUR SHOT FOR LATE SUMMER
CONDITIONS.

LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS
A PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS CONTINUES. FROM LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK...TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE ENSEMBLE MEANS WHICH
HAVE BEEN MORE STABLE THAN THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS DUE TO
TIMING ISSUES WITH THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST BEYOND EARLY TUESDAY.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
EXPECT SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
THIS TIMEFRAME AS AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND SURFACE REFLECTION
REMAINS PARALLEL TO THE SW UPPER FLOW. AS THE FLOW FLATTENS OUT
LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT...THE LEFTOVER ENERGY WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
BUT MAY LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL HIGH PWATS...ON ORDER OF 2.2 TO 2.3
INCHES...SO SOME RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN PRETTY DRY OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL WEEKS...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SPOTS THAT DID HAVE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AROUND 8/27-28 /CENTRAL MA AND S CENTRAL
CT/. THERE MAY BE A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS THAT ARE PRONE TO POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING THAT MIGHT HAVE SOME PROBLEMS SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...BUT ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY FOR THIS. ALSO NOTING H85
WINDS UP TO 35-40 KT...SO SOME COULD MIX DOWN WITH ANY STORMS
EARLY SUN NIGHT ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

SHOULD START TO SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS S NH/N MA EARLY
MON NIGHT...THEN WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. ONLY QUESTION
WILL BE TIMING THE PRECIP EXIT ALONG THE S COAST...WHICH IT MAY
LINGER A BIT LONGER. SHOULD SEE THIS AREA IMPROVE AROUND OR AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

EXPECT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH S-SW WINDS IN PLACE. DEWPTS
WILL BE STEAMY...IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE...THOUGH MAY DROP A
BIT INLAND AS CONDITIONS IMPROVE MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
ANOTHER FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH TOWARD THE REGION. WILL SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE THE
BEST ENERGY AND DYNAMICS OCCUR. CAN NOT RULE OUT A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER
LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL LIFT NE TUE NIGHT.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER-
MID 80S. IT WILL REMAIN STICKY TUE NIGHT...THOUGH DEWPTS MAY DROP
A FEW DEGS WELL INLAND.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THIS
TIMEFRAME. WITH CONTINUED W-SW WINDS IN PLACE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN
SEVERAL DEGS WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. DOES
LOOK LIKE DEWPTS WILL BE A BIT MORE COMFORTABLE ON THURSDAY...
FORECAST IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 /VS. 65 TO 70 EARLY IN THE
WEEK/. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOWER-MID 80S.

MAY SEE ANOTHER FRONT TRY TO APPROACH LATER FRIDAY...THOUGH
TIMING IS IN QUESTION. HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST DURING THE DAY FOR
NOW...BUT MIGHT SEE SOME SHOWERS TRY TO MOVE IN FRI NIGHT. LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...GENERALLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR-IFR THROUGH 13Z-14Z IN NORMALLY
PRONE AREAS OF S NH/NE CT/E INTERIOR MA. EXPECT LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM
WINDS AT 12Z TO BECOME S AT 5-10 KT.

TONIGHT...VFR EARLY. INCREASING RISK OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN
DEVELOPING CLOUD COVER AND FOG/DRIZZLE...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY...
MVFR/IFR EARLY IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. VSBY SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
DURING THE MORNING EXCEPT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WHERE IFR MAY
LINGER. MVFR AND LOW-END VFR CEILINGS AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON...MOSTLY IN THE CT VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NH. POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

LOW END VFR GENERALLY...THOUGH WILL SEE POCKETS OF MVFR-IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN AREAS OF SHOWERS. POSSIBLE TSRA AT SOME TERMINALS
ESPECIALLY INLAND EARLY SUN NIGHT. S-SW WINDS CONTINUE. PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPS WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MAINLY LOW END
VFR CONDITIONS. SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR TUE
AFTERNOON/EARLY TUE NIGHT...THEN SHOULD LIFT NE. LOW RISK FOR
TSRA. WINDS VEER TO W LATE TUE NIGHT. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR. PATCHY FOG EARLY WED MORNING WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR
VSBYS WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL MEAN FAIR SKIES AND
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE.

TONIGHT...
WARM HUMID AIR MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH AND ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS
WOULD FAVOR PATCHY FOG AND POSSIBLY LIGHT DRIZZLE.

SUNDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WIND WITH GUSTS 20-22 KNOTS.
BUILDING SEAS...BUT HEIGHTS BELOW 5 FEET UNTIL EVENING.
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP WEST AND NORTHWEST OF MASSACHUSETTS.
THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE THESE COULD REACH THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY
WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT. MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS CLOSE TO 25
KT ON THE OUTER WATERS SUN NIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT MAINLY
ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SW WINDS WILL
VEER TO W LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 301130
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
730 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY. WARMER MORE
HUMID AIR WILL THEN MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH
SUMMERTIME HUMIDITY STARTING SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
A FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER FAST MOVING
FRONT MAY BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY...
MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER LATE NEXT WEEK
WITH DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
725 AM UPDATE...
A FEW OF THE NORMALLY PRONE SPOTS REPORTED LOW CLOUDS AND BRIEF
PATCHY FOG AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING...AND SOME STILL HAVE SOME
LOW CLOUDS AT 11Z. EXPECT THIS TO BURN OFF BY MID MORNING...THEN
WILL SEE HIGH CLOUDS FILTER IN THROUGH MIDDAY. WILL ALSO SEE SOME
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOP DURING THE DAY.

WITH THE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...SOME SPOTS ACROSS THE
REGION WERE DOWN RIGHT CHILLY. AT 6 AM...KMVY REPORTED AT TEMP OF
39 DEGREES! OTHER COOL SPOTS INCLUDED 44 DEGREES AT KTAN...45 AT
KOWD...47 AT KEWB...48 DEGS AT KPVC AND 49 AT KPYM. EXPECT
READINGS TO REBOUND QUICKLY AS S WINDS PICK UP THIS MORNING.

REMAINDER OF GRIDS WERE IN GOOD SHAPE...BUT HAVE UPDATED TO BRING
CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOR TODAY...GENERAL SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE HIGH SHOULD PROVIDE A
SUNNY DAY. A MOIST LAYER WITH 75 PERCENT RH WILL LINGER BETWEEN
850 AND 900 MB WITH MIXING EXPECTED TO REACH TO 900 MB OR A LITTLE
ABOVE. THIS SHOULD AGAIN GENERATE DIURNAL CUMULUS LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER WILL SUPPORT
MAX SFC TEMPS OF 73 TO 79F...A FEW SPOTS MAY TOUCH 80F. SOUTH
WINDS COMING OFF THE OCEAN WILL KEEP THE SOUTH COAST A LITTLE
COOLER...70 TO 75F. WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL BE AROUND 15-18
KNOTS...SO EXPECT SOME GUSTS TO THIS RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING WARMER MORE
HUMID AIR TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MEAN INCREASING CLOUDS AS
THE HIGHER HUMIDITY AIR RIDES UP OVER THE COOLER AIRMASS AT THE
SURFACE. THE MOIST LAYER WILL BE CONCENTRATED BELOW 950 MB WITH
AT BEST WEAK LIFT...SO EXPECT CLOUDS AND FOG WITH SOME DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL START THE DAY OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. AN 85-90 KNOT JET WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM EAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND BY LATER IN THE DAY. THE DYNAMICALLY FAVORABLE ZONES
FOR LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET WILL BE WELL TO OUR WEST IN THE
MORNING...BUT THEN SHIFT INTO OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE BEST SUPPORT IN WESTERN MASS/SOUTHERN NH LATE IN THE DAY.

CLOUDS MAY THIN IN THE MORNING BUT SHOULD THICKEN AGAIN THROUGH
THE DAY AS SHORTWAVE AND ITS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVE IN. LAPSE RATE
IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER IS SO-SO AT 5.5C/KM. TOTALS CLIMB TO THE
MID 40S. WINDS AT 850 MB REACH 30 KNOTS WHILE 500 MB WINDS REACH
40-45 KNOTS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB THROUGH THE DAY
WITH AFTERNOON VALUES OF 2.0 TO 2.25 INCHES...MOVE THAN 2 STD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND POTENTIALLY NEAR 3.

THIS FAVORS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW PRETTY
GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...THOUGH SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES WORK IN BEGINNING AROUND THE TUESDAY TIMEFRAME THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK AS THE FLAT UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES TENDING TO CAUSE OPERATIONAL MODEL
RUNS TO EXACERBATE TIMING ISSUES WITH FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN THIS
FLOW.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST STARTS OFF
WITH RATHER HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FROM THE NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC IN
THE NORTHERN STREAM WIND FLOW...WHILE A TROUGH DIGS OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. OVERALL...THIS NORTHERN STREAM HAS BEEN GENERALLY
FLATTER THAN THE LAST SEVERAL MONTHS /WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE SLOW
MOVING PATTERNS/...WHICH SIGNALS A FASTER FLOW OF SURFACE SYSTEMS
WITHIN THIS FLOW. EARLY IN THIS FORECAST...WILL SEE A SHORT WAVE
RIDE ACROSS IN THE FLATTER PORTION OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
REGION... WHICH WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS INTO THE HOLIDAY.
ONCE THIS MOVES E...EXPECT A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. ONE THING THAT IS
CONSISTENT IS A CONTINUED MILDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURE REGIME
WITH RATHER HIGH HUMIDITY TO START OFF...THEN WILL SLOWLY DROP BUT
REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCOMFORTABLE...OUR SHOT FOR LATE SUMMER
CONDITIONS.

LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS
A PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS CONTINUES. FROM LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK...TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE ENSEMBLE MEANS WHICH
HAVE BEEN MORE STABLE THAN THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS DUE TO
TIMING ISSUES WITH THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST BEYOND EARLY TUESDAY.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
EXPECT SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
THIS TIMEFRAME AS AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND SURFACE REFLECTION
REMAINS PARALLEL TO THE SW UPPER FLOW. AS THE FLOW FLATTENS OUT
LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT...THE LEFTOVER ENERGY WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
BUT MAY LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL HIGH PWATS...ON ORDER OF 2.2 TO 2.3
INCHES...SO SOME RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN PRETTY DRY OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL WEEKS...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SPOTS THAT DID HAVE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AROUND 8/27-28 /CENTRAL MA AND S CENTRAL
CT/. THERE MAY BE A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS THAT ARE PRONE TO POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING THAT MIGHT HAVE SOME PROBLEMS SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...BUT ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY FOR THIS. ALSO NOTING H85
WINDS UP TO 35-40 KT...SO SOME COULD MIX DOWN WITH ANY STORMS
EARLY SUN NIGHT ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

SHOULD START TO SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS S NH/N MA EARLY
MON NIGHT...THEN WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. ONLY QUESTION
WILL BE TIMING THE PRECIP EXIT ALONG THE S COAST...WHICH IT MAY
LINGER A BIT LONGER. SHOULD SEE THIS AREA IMPROVE AROUND OR AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

EXPECT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH S-SW WINDS IN PLACE. DEWPTS
WILL BE STEAMY...IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE...THOUGH MAY DROP A
BIT INLAND AS CONDITIONS IMPROVE MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
ANOTHER FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH TOWARD THE REGION. WILL SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE THE
BEST ENERGY AND DYNAMICS OCCUR. CAN NOT RULE OUT A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER
LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL LIFT NE TUE NIGHT.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER-
MID 80S. IT WILL REMAIN STICKY TUE NIGHT...THOUGH DEWPTS MAY DROP
A FEW DEGS WELL INLAND.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THIS
TIMEFRAME. WITH CONTINUED W-SW WINDS IN PLACE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN
SEVERAL DEGS WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. DOES
LOOK LIKE DEWPTS WILL BE A BIT MORE COMFORTABLE ON THURSDAY...
FORECAST IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 /VS. 65 TO 70 EARLY IN THE
WEEK/. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOWER-MID 80S.

MAY SEE ANOTHER FRONT TRY TO APPROACH LATER FRIDAY...THOUGH
TIMING IS IN QUESTION. HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST DURING THE DAY FOR
NOW...BUT MIGHT SEE SOME SHOWERS TRY TO MOVE IN FRI NIGHT. LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...GENERALLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR-IFR THROUGH 13Z-14Z IN NORMALLY
PRONE AREAS OF S NH/NE CT/E INTERIOR MA. EXPECT LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM
WINDS AT 12Z TO BECOME S AT 5-10 KT.

TONIGHT...VFR EARLY. INCREASING RISK OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN
DEVELOPING CLOUD COVER AND FOG/DRIZZLE...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY...
MVFR/IFR EARLY IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. VSBY SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
DURING THE MORNING EXCEPT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WHERE IFR MAY
LINGER. MVFR AND LOW-END VFR CEILINGS AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON...MOSTLY IN THE CT VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NH. POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

LOW END VFR GENERALLY...THOUGH WILL SEE POCKETS OF MVFR-IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN AREAS OF SHOWERS. POSSIBLE TSRA AT SOME TERMINALS
ESPECIALLY INLAND EARLY SUN NIGHT. S-SW WINDS CONTINUE. PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPS WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MAINLY LOW END
VFR CONDITIONS. SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR TUE
AFTERNOON/EARLY TUE NIGHT...THEN SHOULD LIFT NE. LOW RISK FOR
TSRA. WINDS VEER TO W LATE TUE NIGHT. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR. PATCHY FOG EARLY WED MORNING WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR
VSBYS WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL MEAN FAIR SKIES AND
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE.

TONIGHT...
WARM HUMID AIR MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH AND ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS
WOULD FAVOR PATCHY FOG AND POSSIBLY LIGHT DRIZZLE.

SUNDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WIND WITH GUSTS 20-22 KNOTS.
BUILDING SEAS...BUT HEIGHTS BELOW 5 FEET UNTIL EVENING.
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP WEST AND NORTHWEST OF MASSACHUSETTS.
THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE THESE COULD REACH THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY
WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT. MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS CLOSE TO 25
KT ON THE OUTER WATERS SUN NIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT MAINLY
ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SW WINDS WILL
VEER TO W LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 300924
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
524 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY. WARMER MORE
HUMID AIR WILL THEN MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH
SUMMERTIME HUMIDITY STARTING SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
A FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER FAST MOVING
FRONT MAY BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY...
MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER LATE NEXT WEEK
WITH DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH 8 AM...
A FEW PATCHES OF CLOUDS BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE IN PLACE AND
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

THESE CONDITIONS SUPPORT RADIATIONAL COOLING. SURFACE TEMPS AT 1
AM WERE APPROACHING DEW POINT AT SEVERAL SPOTS SUCH AS TAN AND
ORE. WE EXPECT AREAS OF RADIATION FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY IN THE COLDER VALLEY OF THE INTERIOR AND IN SOME OF THE
LOW SPOTS OF EASTERN MASS. LOCAL VSBYS BELOW 1/2 MILE POSSIBLE.

MIN TEMPS WILL BE GUIDED BY DEW POINT VALUES...IN THE UPPER 40S
AND 50S.

TODAY...
GENERAL SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE HIGH SHOULD PROVIDE A SUNNY DAY. A
MOIST LAYER WITH 75 PERCENT RH WILL LINGER BETWEEN 850 AND 900 MB
WITH MIXING EXPECTED TO REACH TO 900 MB OR A LITTLE ABOVE. THIS
SHOULD AGAIN GENERATE DIURNAL CUMULUS LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER WILL SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS
OF 73 TO 79F...A FEW SPOTS MAY TOUCH 80F. SOUTH WINDS COMING OFF
THE OCEAN WILL KEEP THE SOUTH COAST A LITTLE COOLER...70 TO 75F.
WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL BE AROUND 15-18 KNOTS...SO EXPECT
SOME GUSTS TO THIS RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING WARMER MORE
HUMID AIR TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MEAN INCREASING CLOUDS AS
THE HIGHER HUMIDITY AIR RIDES UP OVER THE COOLER AIRMASS AT THE
SURFACE. THE MOIST LAYER WILL BE CONCENTRATED BELOW 950 MB WITH
AT BEST WEAK LIFT...SO EXPECT CLOUDS AND FOG WITH SOME DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL START THE DAY OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. AN 85-90 KNOT JET WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM EAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND BY LATER IN THE DAY. THE DYNAMICALLY FAVORABLE ZONES
FOR LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET WILL BE WELL TO OUR WEST IN THE
MORNING...BUT THEN SHIFT INTO OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE BEST SUPPORT IN WESTERN MASS/SOUTHERN NH LATE IN THE DAY.

CLOUDS MAY THIN IN THE MORNING BUT SHOULD THICKEN AGAIN THROUGH
THE DAY AS SHORTWAVE AND ITS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVE IN. LAPSE RATE
IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER IS SO-SO AT 5.5C/KM. TOTALS CLIMB TO THE
MID 40S. WINDS AT 850 MB REACH 30 KNOTS WHILE 500 MB WINDS REACH
40-45 KNOTS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB THROUGH THE DAY
WITH AFTERNOON VALUES OF 2.0 TO 2.25 INCHES...MOVE THAN 2 STD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND POTENTIALLY NEAR 3.

THIS FAVORS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW PRETTY
GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...THOUGH SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES WORK IN BEGINNING AROUND THE TUESDAY TIMEFRAME THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK AS THE FLAT UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES TENDING TO CAUSE OPERATIONAL MODEL
RUNS TO EXACERBATE TIMING ISSUES WITH FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN THIS
FLOW.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST STARTS OFF
WITH RATHER HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FROM THE NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC IN
THE NORTHERN STREAM WIND FLOW...WHILE A TROUGH DIGS OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. OVERALL...THIS NORTHERN STREAM HAS BEEN GENERALLY
FLATTER THAN THE LAST SEVERAL MONTHS /WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE SLOW
MOVING PATTERNS/...WHICH SIGNALS A FASTER FLOW OF SURFACE SYSTEMS
WITHIN THIS FLOW. EARLY IN THIS FORECAST...WILL SEE A SHORT WAVE
RIDE ACROSS IN THE FLATTER PORTION OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
REGION... WHICH WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS INTO THE HOLIDAY.
ONCE THIS MOVES E...EXPECT A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. ONE THING THAT IS
CONSISTENT IS A CONTINUED MILDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURE REGIME
WITH RATHER HIGH HUMIDITY TO START OFF...THEN WILL SLOWLY DROP BUT
REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCOMFORTABLE...OUR SHOT FOR LATE SUMMER
CONDITIONS.

LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS
A PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS CONTINUES. FROM LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK...TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE ENSEMBLE MEANS WHICH
HAVE BEEN MORE STABLE THAN THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS DUE TO
TIMING ISSUES WITH THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST BEYOND EARLY TUESDAY.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
EXPECT SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
THIS TIMEFRAME AS AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND SURFACE REFLECTION
REMAINS PARALLEL TO THE SW UPPER FLOW. AS THE FLOW FLATTENS OUT
LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT...THE LEFTOVER ENERGY WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
BUT MAY LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL HIGH PWATS...ON ORDER OF 2.2 TO 2.3
INCHES...SO SOME RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN PRETTY DRY OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL WEEKS...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SPOTS THAT DID HAVE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AROUND 8/27-28 /CENTRAL MA AND S CENTRAL
CT/. THERE MAY BE A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS THAT ARE PRONE TO POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING THAT MIGHT HAVE SOME PROBLEMS SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...BUT ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY FOR THIS. ALSO NOTING H85
WINDS UP TO 35-40 KT...SO SOME COULD MIX DOWN WITH ANY STORMS
EARLY SUN NIGHT ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

SHOULD START TO SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS S NH/N MA EARLY
MON NIGHT...THEN WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. ONLY QUESTION
WILL BE TIMING THE PRECIP EXIT ALONG THE S COAST...WHICH IT MAY
LINGER A BIT LONGER. SHOULD SEE THIS AREA IMPROVE AROUND OR AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

EXPECT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH S-SW WINDS IN PLACE. DEWPTS
WILL BE STEAMY...IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE...THOUGH MAY DROP A
BIT INLAND AS CONDITIONS IMPROVE MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
ANOTHER FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH TOWARD THE REGION. WILL SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE THE
BEST ENERGY AND DYNAMICS OCCUR. CAN NOT RULE OUT A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER
LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL LIFT NE TUE NIGHT.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER-
MID 80S. IT WILL REMAIN STICKY TUE NIGHT...THOUGH DEWPTS MAY DROP
A FEW DEGS WELL INLAND.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THIS
TIMEFRAME. WITH CONTINUED W-SW WINDS IN PLACE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN
SEVERAL DEGS WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. DOES
LOOK LIKE DEWPTS WILL BE A BIT MORE COMFORTABLE ON THURSDAY...
FORECAST IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 /VS. 65 TO 70 EARLY IN THE
WEEK/. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOWER-MID 80S.

MAY SEE ANOTHER FRONT TRY TO APPROACH LATER FRIDAY...THOUGH
TIMING IS IN QUESTION. HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST DURING THE DAY FOR
NOW...BUT MIGHT SEE SOME SHOWERS TRY TO MOVE IN FRI NIGHT. LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...GENERALLY VFR. MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG THROUGH
SUNRISE ESPECIALLY IN PARTS OF THE CT VALLEY AND FAVORED SHELTERED
SPOTS. LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASING A LITTLE OUT OF THE SOUTH.

TONIGHT...VFR EARLY. INCREASING RISK OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN
DEVELOPING CLOUD COVER AND FOG/DRIZZLE...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY...
MVFR/IFR EARLY IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. VSBY SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
DURING THE MORNING EXCEPT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WHERE IFR MAY
LINGER. MVFR AND LOW-END VFR CEILINGS AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON...MOSTLY IN THE CT VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NH. POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

LOW END VFR GENERALLY...THOUGH WILL SEE POCKETS OF MVFR-IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN AREAS OF SHOWERS. POSSIBLE TSRA AT SOME TERMINALS
ESPECIALLY INLAND EARLY SUN NIGHT. S-SW WINDS CONTINUE. PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPS WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MAINLY LOW END
VFR CONDITIONS. SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR TUE
AFTERNOON/EARLY TUE NIGHT...THEN SHOULD LIFT NE. LOW RISK FOR
TSRA. WINDS VEER TO W LATE TUE NIGHT. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR. PATCHY FOG EARLY WED MORNING WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR
VSBYS WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL MEAN FAIR SKIES AND
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE.

TONIGHT...
WARM HUMID AIR MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH AND ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS
WOULD FAVOR PATCHY FOG AND POSSIBLY LIGHT DRIZZLE.

SUNDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WIND WITH GUSTS 20-22 KNOTS.
BUILDING SEAS...BUT HEIGHTS BELOW 5 FEET UNTIL EVENING.
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP WEST AND NORTHWEST OF MASSACHUSETTS.
THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE THESE COULD REACH THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY
WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT. MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS CLOSE TO 25
KT ON THE OUTER WATERS SUN NIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT MAINLY
ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SW WINDS WILL
VEER TO W LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 300924
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
524 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY. WARMER MORE
HUMID AIR WILL THEN MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH
SUMMERTIME HUMIDITY STARTING SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
A FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER FAST MOVING
FRONT MAY BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY...
MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER LATE NEXT WEEK
WITH DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH 8 AM...
A FEW PATCHES OF CLOUDS BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE IN PLACE AND
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

THESE CONDITIONS SUPPORT RADIATIONAL COOLING. SURFACE TEMPS AT 1
AM WERE APPROACHING DEW POINT AT SEVERAL SPOTS SUCH AS TAN AND
ORE. WE EXPECT AREAS OF RADIATION FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY IN THE COLDER VALLEY OF THE INTERIOR AND IN SOME OF THE
LOW SPOTS OF EASTERN MASS. LOCAL VSBYS BELOW 1/2 MILE POSSIBLE.

MIN TEMPS WILL BE GUIDED BY DEW POINT VALUES...IN THE UPPER 40S
AND 50S.

TODAY...
GENERAL SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE HIGH SHOULD PROVIDE A SUNNY DAY. A
MOIST LAYER WITH 75 PERCENT RH WILL LINGER BETWEEN 850 AND 900 MB
WITH MIXING EXPECTED TO REACH TO 900 MB OR A LITTLE ABOVE. THIS
SHOULD AGAIN GENERATE DIURNAL CUMULUS LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER WILL SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS
OF 73 TO 79F...A FEW SPOTS MAY TOUCH 80F. SOUTH WINDS COMING OFF
THE OCEAN WILL KEEP THE SOUTH COAST A LITTLE COOLER...70 TO 75F.
WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL BE AROUND 15-18 KNOTS...SO EXPECT
SOME GUSTS TO THIS RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING WARMER MORE
HUMID AIR TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MEAN INCREASING CLOUDS AS
THE HIGHER HUMIDITY AIR RIDES UP OVER THE COOLER AIRMASS AT THE
SURFACE. THE MOIST LAYER WILL BE CONCENTRATED BELOW 950 MB WITH
AT BEST WEAK LIFT...SO EXPECT CLOUDS AND FOG WITH SOME DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL START THE DAY OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. AN 85-90 KNOT JET WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM EAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND BY LATER IN THE DAY. THE DYNAMICALLY FAVORABLE ZONES
FOR LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET WILL BE WELL TO OUR WEST IN THE
MORNING...BUT THEN SHIFT INTO OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE BEST SUPPORT IN WESTERN MASS/SOUTHERN NH LATE IN THE DAY.

CLOUDS MAY THIN IN THE MORNING BUT SHOULD THICKEN AGAIN THROUGH
THE DAY AS SHORTWAVE AND ITS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVE IN. LAPSE RATE
IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER IS SO-SO AT 5.5C/KM. TOTALS CLIMB TO THE
MID 40S. WINDS AT 850 MB REACH 30 KNOTS WHILE 500 MB WINDS REACH
40-45 KNOTS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB THROUGH THE DAY
WITH AFTERNOON VALUES OF 2.0 TO 2.25 INCHES...MOVE THAN 2 STD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND POTENTIALLY NEAR 3.

THIS FAVORS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW PRETTY
GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...THOUGH SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES WORK IN BEGINNING AROUND THE TUESDAY TIMEFRAME THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK AS THE FLAT UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES TENDING TO CAUSE OPERATIONAL MODEL
RUNS TO EXACERBATE TIMING ISSUES WITH FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN THIS
FLOW.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST STARTS OFF
WITH RATHER HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FROM THE NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC IN
THE NORTHERN STREAM WIND FLOW...WHILE A TROUGH DIGS OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. OVERALL...THIS NORTHERN STREAM HAS BEEN GENERALLY
FLATTER THAN THE LAST SEVERAL MONTHS /WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE SLOW
MOVING PATTERNS/...WHICH SIGNALS A FASTER FLOW OF SURFACE SYSTEMS
WITHIN THIS FLOW. EARLY IN THIS FORECAST...WILL SEE A SHORT WAVE
RIDE ACROSS IN THE FLATTER PORTION OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
REGION... WHICH WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS INTO THE HOLIDAY.
ONCE THIS MOVES E...EXPECT A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. ONE THING THAT IS
CONSISTENT IS A CONTINUED MILDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURE REGIME
WITH RATHER HIGH HUMIDITY TO START OFF...THEN WILL SLOWLY DROP BUT
REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCOMFORTABLE...OUR SHOT FOR LATE SUMMER
CONDITIONS.

LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS
A PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS CONTINUES. FROM LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK...TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE ENSEMBLE MEANS WHICH
HAVE BEEN MORE STABLE THAN THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS DUE TO
TIMING ISSUES WITH THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST BEYOND EARLY TUESDAY.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
EXPECT SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
THIS TIMEFRAME AS AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND SURFACE REFLECTION
REMAINS PARALLEL TO THE SW UPPER FLOW. AS THE FLOW FLATTENS OUT
LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT...THE LEFTOVER ENERGY WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
BUT MAY LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL HIGH PWATS...ON ORDER OF 2.2 TO 2.3
INCHES...SO SOME RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN PRETTY DRY OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL WEEKS...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SPOTS THAT DID HAVE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AROUND 8/27-28 /CENTRAL MA AND S CENTRAL
CT/. THERE MAY BE A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS THAT ARE PRONE TO POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING THAT MIGHT HAVE SOME PROBLEMS SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...BUT ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY FOR THIS. ALSO NOTING H85
WINDS UP TO 35-40 KT...SO SOME COULD MIX DOWN WITH ANY STORMS
EARLY SUN NIGHT ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

SHOULD START TO SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS S NH/N MA EARLY
MON NIGHT...THEN WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. ONLY QUESTION
WILL BE TIMING THE PRECIP EXIT ALONG THE S COAST...WHICH IT MAY
LINGER A BIT LONGER. SHOULD SEE THIS AREA IMPROVE AROUND OR AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

EXPECT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH S-SW WINDS IN PLACE. DEWPTS
WILL BE STEAMY...IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE...THOUGH MAY DROP A
BIT INLAND AS CONDITIONS IMPROVE MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
ANOTHER FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH TOWARD THE REGION. WILL SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE THE
BEST ENERGY AND DYNAMICS OCCUR. CAN NOT RULE OUT A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER
LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL LIFT NE TUE NIGHT.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER-
MID 80S. IT WILL REMAIN STICKY TUE NIGHT...THOUGH DEWPTS MAY DROP
A FEW DEGS WELL INLAND.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THIS
TIMEFRAME. WITH CONTINUED W-SW WINDS IN PLACE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN
SEVERAL DEGS WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. DOES
LOOK LIKE DEWPTS WILL BE A BIT MORE COMFORTABLE ON THURSDAY...
FORECAST IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 /VS. 65 TO 70 EARLY IN THE
WEEK/. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOWER-MID 80S.

MAY SEE ANOTHER FRONT TRY TO APPROACH LATER FRIDAY...THOUGH
TIMING IS IN QUESTION. HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST DURING THE DAY FOR
NOW...BUT MIGHT SEE SOME SHOWERS TRY TO MOVE IN FRI NIGHT. LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...GENERALLY VFR. MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG THROUGH
SUNRISE ESPECIALLY IN PARTS OF THE CT VALLEY AND FAVORED SHELTERED
SPOTS. LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASING A LITTLE OUT OF THE SOUTH.

TONIGHT...VFR EARLY. INCREASING RISK OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN
DEVELOPING CLOUD COVER AND FOG/DRIZZLE...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY...
MVFR/IFR EARLY IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. VSBY SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
DURING THE MORNING EXCEPT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WHERE IFR MAY
LINGER. MVFR AND LOW-END VFR CEILINGS AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON...MOSTLY IN THE CT VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NH. POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

LOW END VFR GENERALLY...THOUGH WILL SEE POCKETS OF MVFR-IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN AREAS OF SHOWERS. POSSIBLE TSRA AT SOME TERMINALS
ESPECIALLY INLAND EARLY SUN NIGHT. S-SW WINDS CONTINUE. PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPS WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MAINLY LOW END
VFR CONDITIONS. SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR TUE
AFTERNOON/EARLY TUE NIGHT...THEN SHOULD LIFT NE. LOW RISK FOR
TSRA. WINDS VEER TO W LATE TUE NIGHT. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR. PATCHY FOG EARLY WED MORNING WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR
VSBYS WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL MEAN FAIR SKIES AND
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE.

TONIGHT...
WARM HUMID AIR MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH AND ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS
WOULD FAVOR PATCHY FOG AND POSSIBLY LIGHT DRIZZLE.

SUNDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WIND WITH GUSTS 20-22 KNOTS.
BUILDING SEAS...BUT HEIGHTS BELOW 5 FEET UNTIL EVENING.
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP WEST AND NORTHWEST OF MASSACHUSETTS.
THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE THESE COULD REACH THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY
WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT. MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS CLOSE TO 25
KT ON THE OUTER WATERS SUN NIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT MAINLY
ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SW WINDS WILL
VEER TO W LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 300907
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
507 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY. WARMER MORE
HUMID AIR WILL THEN MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH
SUMMERTIME HUMIDITY STARTING SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT OVER THE PLAINS
WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE EAST...TAKING UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY
TO MOVE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH 8 AM...
A FEW PATCHES OF CLOUDS BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE IN PLACE AND
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

THESE CONDITIONS SUPPORT RADIATIONAL COOLING. SURFACE TEMPS AT 1
AM WERE APPROACHING DEW POINT AT SEVERAL SPOTS SUCH AS TAN AND
ORE. WE EXPECT AREAS OF RADIATION FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY IN THE COLDER VALLEY OF THE INTERIOR AND IN SOME OF THE
LOW SPOTS OF EASTERN MASS. LOCAL VSBYS BELOW 1/2 MILE POSSIBLE.

MIN TEMPS WILL BE GUIDED BY DEW POINT VALUES...IN THE UPPER 40S
AND 50S.

TODAY...
GENERAL SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE HIGH SHOULD PROVIDE A SUNNY DAY. A
MOIST LAYER WITH 75 PERCENT RH WILL LINGER BETWEEN 850 AND 900 MB
WITH MIXING EXPECTED TO REACH TO 900 MB OR A LITTLE ABOVE. THIS
SHOULD AGAIN GENERATE DIURNAL CUMULUS LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER WILL SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS
OF 73 TO 79F...A FEW SPOTS MAY TOUCH 80F. SOUTH WINDS COMING OFF
THE OCEAN WILL KEEP THE SOUTH COAST A LITTLE COOLER...70 TO 75F.
WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL BE AROUND 15-18 KNOTS...SO EXPECT
SOME GUSTS TO THIS RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING WARMER MORE
HUMID AIR TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MEAN INCREASING CLOUDS AS
THE HIGHER HUMIDITY AIR RIDES UP OVER THE COOLER AIRMASS AT THE
SURFACE. THE MOIST LAYER WILL BE CONCENTRATED BELOW 950 MB WITH
AT BEST WEAK LIFT...SO EXPECT CLOUDS AND FOG WITH SOME DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL START THE DAY OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. AN 85-90 KNOT JET WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM EAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND BY LATER IN THE DAY. THE DYNAMICALLY FAVORABLE ZONES
FOR LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET WILL BE WELL TO OUR WEST IN THE
MORNING...BUT THEN SHIFT INTO OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE BEST SUPPORT IN WESTERN MASS/SOUTHERN NH LATE IN THE DAY.

CLOUDS MAY THIN IN THE MORNING BUT SHOULD THICKEN AGAIN THROUGH
THE DAY AS SHORTWAVE AND ITS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVE IN. LAPSE RATE
IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER IS SO-SO AT 5.5C/KM. TOTALS CLIMB TO THE
MID 40S. WINDS AT 850 MB REACH 30 KNOTS WHILE 500 MB WINDS REACH
40-45 KNOTS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB THROUGH THE DAY
WITH AFTERNOON VALUES OF 2.0 TO 2.25 INCHES...MOVE THAN 2 STD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND POTENTIALLY NEAR 3.

THIS FAVORS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW PRETTY
GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...THOUGH SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES WORK IN BEGINNING AROUND THE TUESDAY TIMEFRAME THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK AS THE FLAT UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES TENDING TO CAUSE OPERATIONAL MODEL
RUNS TO EXACERBATE TIMING ISSUES WITH FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN THIS
FLOW.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST STARTS OFF
WITH RATHER HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FROM THE NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC IN
THE NORTHERN STREAM WIND FLOW...WHILE A TROUGH DIGS OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. OVERALL...THIS NORTHERN STREAM HAS BEEN GENERALLY
FLATTER THAN THE LAST SEVERAL MONTHS /WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE SLOW
MOVING PATTERNS/...WHICH SIGNALS A FASTER FLOW OF SURFACE SYSTEMS
WITHIN THIS FLOW. EARLY IN THIS FORECAST...WILL SEE A SHORT WAVE
RIDE ACROSS IN THE FLATTER PORTION OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
REGION... WHICH WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS INTO THE HOLIDAY.
ONCE THIS MOVES E...EXPECT A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. ONE THING THAT IS
CONSISTENT IS A CONTINUED MILDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURE REGIME
WITH RATHER HIGH HUMIDITY TO START OFF...THEN WILL SLOWLY DROP BUT
REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCOMFORTABLE...OUR SHOT FOR LATE SUMMER
CONDITIONS.

LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS
A PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS CONTINUES. FROM LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK...TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE ENSEMBLE MEANS WHICH
HAVE BEEN MORE STABLE THAN THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS DUE TO
TIMING ISSUES WITH THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST BEYOND EARLY TUESDAY.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
EXPECT SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
THIS TIMEFRAME AS AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND SURFACE REFLECTION
REMAINS PARALLEL TO THE SW UPPER FLOW. AS THE FLOW FLATTENS OUT
LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT...THE LEFTOVER ENERGY WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
BUT MAY LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL HIGH PWATS...ON ORDER OF 2.2 TO 2.3
INCHES...SO SOME RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN PRETTY DRY OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL WEEKS...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SPOTS THAT DID HAVE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AROUND 8/27-28 /CENTRAL MA AND S CENTRAL
CT/. THERE MAY BE A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS THAT ARE PRONE TO POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING THAT MIGHT HAVE SOME PROBLEMS SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...BUT ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY FOR THIS. ALSO NOTING H85
WINDS UP TO 35-40 KT...SO SOME COULD MIX DOWN WITH ANY STORMS
EARLY SUN NIGHT ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

SHOULD START TO SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS S NH/N MA EARLY
MON NIGHT...THEN WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. ONLY QUESTION
WILL BE TIMING THE PRECIP EXIT ALONG THE S COAST...WHICH IT MAY
LINGER A BIT LONGER. SHOULD SEE THIS AREA IMPROVE AROUND OR AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

EXPECT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH S-SW WINDS IN PLACE. DEWPTS
WILL BE STEAMY...IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE...THOUGH MAY DROP A
BIT INLAND AS CONDITIONS IMPROVE MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
ANOTHER FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH TOWARD THE REGION. WILL SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE THE
BEST ENERGY AND DYNAMICS OCCUR. CAN NOT RULE OUT A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER
LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL LIFT NE TUE NIGHT.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER-
MID 80S. IT WILL REMAIN STICKY TUE NIGHT...THOUGH DEWPTS MAY DROP
A FEW DEGS WELL INLAND.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THIS
TIMEFRAME. WITH CONTINUED W-SW WINDS IN PLACE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN
SEVERAL DEGS WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. DOES
LOOK LIKE DEWPTS WILL BE A BIT MORE COMFORTABLE ON THURSDAY...
FORECAST IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 /VS. 65 TO 70 EARLY IN THE
WEEK/. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOWER-MID 80S.

MAY SEE ANOTHER FRONT TRY TO APPROACH LATER FRIDAY...THOUGH
TIMING IS IN QUESTION. HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST DURING THE DAY FOR
NOW...BUT MIGHT SEE SOME SHOWERS TRY TO MOVE IN FRI NIGHT. LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...GENERALLY VFR. MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG THROUGH
SUNRISE ESPECIALLY IN PARTS OF THE CT VALLEY AND FAVORED SHELTERED
SPOTS. LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASING A LITTLE OUT OF THE SOUTH.

TONIGHT...VFR EARLY. INCREASING RISK OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN
DEVELOPING CLOUD COVER AND FOG/DRIZZLE...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY...
MVFR/IFR EARLY IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. VSBY SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
DURING THE MORNING EXCEPT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WHERE IFR MAY
LINGER. MVFR AND LOW-END VFR CEILINGS AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON...MOSTLY IN THE CT VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NH. POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

LOW END VFR GENERALLY...THOUGH WILL SEE POCKETS OF MVFR-IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN AREAS OF SHOWERS. POSSIBLE TSRA AT SOME TERMINALS
ESPECIALLY INLAND EARLY SUN NIGHT. S-SW WINDS CONTINUE. PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPS WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MAINLY LOW END
VFR CONDITIONS. SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR TUE
AFTERNOON/EARLY TUE NIGHT...THEN SHOULD LIFT NE. LOW RISK FOR
TSRA. WINDS VEER TO W LATE TUE NIGHT. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR. PATCHY FOG EARLY WED MORNING WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR
VSBYS WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL MEAN FAIR SKIES AND
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE.

TONIGHT...
WARM HUMID AIR MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH AND ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS
WOULD FAVOR PATCHY FOG AND POSSIBLY LIGHT DRIZZLE.

SUNDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WIND WITH GUSTS 20-22 KNOTS.
BUILDING SEAS...BUT HEIGHTS BELOW 5 FEET UNTIL EVENING.
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP WEST AND NORTHWEST OF MASSACHUSETTS.
THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE THESE COULD REACH THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY
WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT. MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS CLOSE TO 25
KT ON THE OUTER WATERS SUN NIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT MAINLY
ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SW WINDS WILL
VEER TO W LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 300907
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
507 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY. WARMER MORE
HUMID AIR WILL THEN MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH
SUMMERTIME HUMIDITY STARTING SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT OVER THE PLAINS
WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE EAST...TAKING UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY
TO MOVE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH 8 AM...
A FEW PATCHES OF CLOUDS BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE IN PLACE AND
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.

THESE CONDITIONS SUPPORT RADIATIONAL COOLING. SURFACE TEMPS AT 1
AM WERE APPROACHING DEW POINT AT SEVERAL SPOTS SUCH AS TAN AND
ORE. WE EXPECT AREAS OF RADIATION FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY IN THE COLDER VALLEY OF THE INTERIOR AND IN SOME OF THE
LOW SPOTS OF EASTERN MASS. LOCAL VSBYS BELOW 1/2 MILE POSSIBLE.

MIN TEMPS WILL BE GUIDED BY DEW POINT VALUES...IN THE UPPER 40S
AND 50S.

TODAY...
GENERAL SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE HIGH SHOULD PROVIDE A SUNNY DAY. A
MOIST LAYER WITH 75 PERCENT RH WILL LINGER BETWEEN 850 AND 900 MB
WITH MIXING EXPECTED TO REACH TO 900 MB OR A LITTLE ABOVE. THIS
SHOULD AGAIN GENERATE DIURNAL CUMULUS LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER WILL SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS
OF 73 TO 79F...A FEW SPOTS MAY TOUCH 80F. SOUTH WINDS COMING OFF
THE OCEAN WILL KEEP THE SOUTH COAST A LITTLE COOLER...70 TO 75F.
WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL BE AROUND 15-18 KNOTS...SO EXPECT
SOME GUSTS TO THIS RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING WARMER MORE
HUMID AIR TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MEAN INCREASING CLOUDS AS
THE HIGHER HUMIDITY AIR RIDES UP OVER THE COOLER AIRMASS AT THE
SURFACE. THE MOIST LAYER WILL BE CONCENTRATED BELOW 950 MB WITH
AT BEST WEAK LIFT...SO EXPECT CLOUDS AND FOG WITH SOME DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL START THE DAY OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. AN 85-90 KNOT JET WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM EAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND BY LATER IN THE DAY. THE DYNAMICALLY FAVORABLE ZONES
FOR LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET WILL BE WELL TO OUR WEST IN THE
MORNING...BUT THEN SHIFT INTO OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE BEST SUPPORT IN WESTERN MASS/SOUTHERN NH LATE IN THE DAY.

CLOUDS MAY THIN IN THE MORNING BUT SHOULD THICKEN AGAIN THROUGH
THE DAY AS SHORTWAVE AND ITS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVE IN. LAPSE RATE
IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER IS SO-SO AT 5.5C/KM. TOTALS CLIMB TO THE
MID 40S. WINDS AT 850 MB REACH 30 KNOTS WHILE 500 MB WINDS REACH
40-45 KNOTS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB THROUGH THE DAY
WITH AFTERNOON VALUES OF 2.0 TO 2.25 INCHES...MOVE THAN 2 STD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND POTENTIALLY NEAR 3.

THIS FAVORS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW PRETTY
GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...THOUGH SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES WORK IN BEGINNING AROUND THE TUESDAY TIMEFRAME THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK AS THE FLAT UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES TENDING TO CAUSE OPERATIONAL MODEL
RUNS TO EXACERBATE TIMING ISSUES WITH FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN THIS
FLOW.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST STARTS OFF
WITH RATHER HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FROM THE NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC IN
THE NORTHERN STREAM WIND FLOW...WHILE A TROUGH DIGS OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. OVERALL...THIS NORTHERN STREAM HAS BEEN GENERALLY
FLATTER THAN THE LAST SEVERAL MONTHS /WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE SLOW
MOVING PATTERNS/...WHICH SIGNALS A FASTER FLOW OF SURFACE SYSTEMS
WITHIN THIS FLOW. EARLY IN THIS FORECAST...WILL SEE A SHORT WAVE
RIDE ACROSS IN THE FLATTER PORTION OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
REGION... WHICH WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS INTO THE HOLIDAY.
ONCE THIS MOVES E...EXPECT A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK. ONE THING THAT IS
CONSISTENT IS A CONTINUED MILDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURE REGIME
WITH RATHER HIGH HUMIDITY TO START OFF...THEN WILL SLOWLY DROP BUT
REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCOMFORTABLE...OUR SHOT FOR LATE SUMMER
CONDITIONS.

LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS
A PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS CONTINUES. FROM LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK...TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE ENSEMBLE MEANS WHICH
HAVE BEEN MORE STABLE THAN THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS DUE TO
TIMING ISSUES WITH THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST BEYOND EARLY TUESDAY.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
EXPECT SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
THIS TIMEFRAME AS AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND SURFACE REFLECTION
REMAINS PARALLEL TO THE SW UPPER FLOW. AS THE FLOW FLATTENS OUT
LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT...THE LEFTOVER ENERGY WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
BUT MAY LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL HIGH PWATS...ON ORDER OF 2.2 TO 2.3
INCHES...SO SOME RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN PRETTY DRY OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL WEEKS...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SPOTS THAT DID HAVE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AROUND 8/27-28 /CENTRAL MA AND S CENTRAL
CT/. THERE MAY BE A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS THAT ARE PRONE TO POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING THAT MIGHT HAVE SOME PROBLEMS SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...BUT ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY FOR THIS. ALSO NOTING H85
WINDS UP TO 35-40 KT...SO SOME COULD MIX DOWN WITH ANY STORMS
EARLY SUN NIGHT ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

SHOULD START TO SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS S NH/N MA EARLY
MON NIGHT...THEN WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. ONLY QUESTION
WILL BE TIMING THE PRECIP EXIT ALONG THE S COAST...WHICH IT MAY
LINGER A BIT LONGER. SHOULD SEE THIS AREA IMPROVE AROUND OR AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

EXPECT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH S-SW WINDS IN PLACE. DEWPTS
WILL BE STEAMY...IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE...THOUGH MAY DROP A
BIT INLAND AS CONDITIONS IMPROVE MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
ANOTHER FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH TOWARD THE REGION. WILL SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE THE
BEST ENERGY AND DYNAMICS OCCUR. CAN NOT RULE OUT A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER
LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL LIFT NE TUE NIGHT.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER-
MID 80S. IT WILL REMAIN STICKY TUE NIGHT...THOUGH DEWPTS MAY DROP
A FEW DEGS WELL INLAND.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THIS
TIMEFRAME. WITH CONTINUED W-SW WINDS IN PLACE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN
SEVERAL DEGS WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. DOES
LOOK LIKE DEWPTS WILL BE A BIT MORE COMFORTABLE ON THURSDAY...
FORECAST IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 /VS. 65 TO 70 EARLY IN THE
WEEK/. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOWER-MID 80S.

MAY SEE ANOTHER FRONT TRY TO APPROACH LATER FRIDAY...THOUGH
TIMING IS IN QUESTION. HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST DURING THE DAY FOR
NOW...BUT MIGHT SEE SOME SHOWERS TRY TO MOVE IN FRI NIGHT. LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...GENERALLY VFR. MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG THROUGH
SUNRISE ESPECIALLY IN PARTS OF THE CT VALLEY AND FAVORED SHELTERED
SPOTS. LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASING A LITTLE OUT OF THE SOUTH.

TONIGHT...VFR EARLY. INCREASING RISK OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN
DEVELOPING CLOUD COVER AND FOG/DRIZZLE...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY...
MVFR/IFR EARLY IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. VSBY SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
DURING THE MORNING EXCEPT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WHERE IFR MAY
LINGER. MVFR AND LOW-END VFR CEILINGS AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON...MOSTLY IN THE CT VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NH. POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

LOW END VFR GENERALLY...THOUGH WILL SEE POCKETS OF MVFR-IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN AREAS OF SHOWERS. POSSIBLE TSRA AT SOME TERMINALS
ESPECIALLY INLAND EARLY SUN NIGHT. S-SW WINDS CONTINUE. PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPS WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MAINLY LOW END
VFR CONDITIONS. SCT SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR TUE
AFTERNOON/EARLY TUE NIGHT...THEN SHOULD LIFT NE. LOW RISK FOR
TSRA. WINDS VEER TO W LATE TUE NIGHT. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS.

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR. PATCHY FOG EARLY WED MORNING WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR
VSBYS WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL MEAN FAIR SKIES AND
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE.

TONIGHT...
WARM HUMID AIR MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH AND ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS
WOULD FAVOR PATCHY FOG AND POSSIBLY LIGHT DRIZZLE.

SUNDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WIND WITH GUSTS 20-22 KNOTS.
BUILDING SEAS...BUT HEIGHTS BELOW 5 FEET UNTIL EVENING.
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP WEST AND NORTHWEST OF MASSACHUSETTS.
THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE THESE COULD REACH THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY
WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KT. MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS CLOSE TO 25
KT ON THE OUTER WATERS SUN NIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT MAINLY
ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SW WINDS WILL
VEER TO W LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT



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