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000
FXUS61 KBOX 291833
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
233 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT
MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER.  A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND IF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
230 PM UPDATE...MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO NEAR TERM CONDITIONS
TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS. SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED...BUT
THE TIMING IS A LITTLE SLOWER GETTING INTO BOSTON HARBOR AND UPPER
REACHES OF NARRAGANSETT BAY. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.

FOR TONIGHT...A DRY AIRMASS...BY LATE JULY STANDARDS...WILL
COMBINE WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS TO RESULT IN AN
EXCELLENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG
MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS...BUT NOTHING
WIDESPREAD IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA...JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS
AND SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED AS A MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...BUT
THE SHORTWAVE COULD RESULT IN A PASSING SPRINKLE OR TWO. WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING EAST OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK...BUT AT THIS TIME APPEARS IT SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH AWAY TO SPARE EVEN THE CAPE/ISLANDS ANY MEASURABLE
RAINFALL.

THIS ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH NUDGES SLIGHTLY CLOSER
TO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MODEST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD ARRIVE SOON ENOUGH TO GIVE US A PASSING
SHOWER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER
* LOW PRES COULD BRING RAIN ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH COAST SAT

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.  THERE
ARE DETAIL DIFFERENCES OF COURSE BUT OVERALL THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
PATTERN IS WELL MODELED.  THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. IS THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE LONG TERM.  THE TROUGH IS FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT MOISTURE
IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE
TROUGH.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

THE TROUGH AXIS STARTS TO SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST THIS WEEKEND...
ALLOWING MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. A FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL BRING STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST A PORTION
OF THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS AS TO
HOW CLOSE THIS FRONT GETS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE CLOSER THE
FRONT COMES TO THE AREA...THE MORE WIDESPREAD THE RAIN. MODEL
BLEND CURRENTLY BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS
AND RHODE ISLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS OTHER
THAN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A SHOWER LATE WEST OF KMHT-KORE-KBDL-KHFD.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. TIMING OF SEA BREEZE
MAY BE A LITTLE OFF. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THAT TIMING...WILL
CONTINUE TO FINE-TUNE TIMING AS WELL AS WE CAN.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR NW.  MVFR CONDITIONS MORE
PROBABLE SE IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. LEFTOVER SWELL WILL ALLOW ROUGH SEAS TO LINGER
INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES BY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/RLG
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...BELK/RLG
MARINE...BELK/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 291833
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
233 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT
MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER.  A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND IF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
230 PM UPDATE...MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO NEAR TERM CONDITIONS
TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS. SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED...BUT
THE TIMING IS A LITTLE SLOWER GETTING INTO BOSTON HARBOR AND UPPER
REACHES OF NARRAGANSETT BAY. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.

FOR TONIGHT...A DRY AIRMASS...BY LATE JULY STANDARDS...WILL
COMBINE WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS TO RESULT IN AN
EXCELLENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG
MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS...BUT NOTHING
WIDESPREAD IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA...JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS
AND SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED AS A MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...BUT
THE SHORTWAVE COULD RESULT IN A PASSING SPRINKLE OR TWO. WE WILL
HAVE TO WATCH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING EAST OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK...BUT AT THIS TIME APPEARS IT SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH AWAY TO SPARE EVEN THE CAPE/ISLANDS ANY MEASURABLE
RAINFALL.

THIS ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH NUDGES SLIGHTLY CLOSER
TO OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MODEST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD ARRIVE SOON ENOUGH TO GIVE US A PASSING
SHOWER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER
* LOW PRES COULD BRING RAIN ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH COAST SAT

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.  THERE
ARE DETAIL DIFFERENCES OF COURSE BUT OVERALL THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
PATTERN IS WELL MODELED.  THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. IS THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE LONG TERM.  THE TROUGH IS FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT MOISTURE
IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE
TROUGH.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

THE TROUGH AXIS STARTS TO SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST THIS WEEKEND...
ALLOWING MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. A FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL BRING STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST A PORTION
OF THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS AS TO
HOW CLOSE THIS FRONT GETS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE CLOSER THE
FRONT COMES TO THE AREA...THE MORE WIDESPREAD THE RAIN. MODEL
BLEND CURRENTLY BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS
AND RHODE ISLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS OTHER
THAN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A SHOWER LATE WEST OF KMHT-KORE-KBDL-KHFD.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. TIMING OF SEA BREEZE
MAY BE A LITTLE OFF. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THAT TIMING...WILL
CONTINUE TO FINE-TUNE TIMING AS WELL AS WE CAN.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR NW.  MVFR CONDITIONS MORE
PROBABLE SE IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. LEFTOVER SWELL WILL ALLOW ROUGH SEAS TO LINGER
INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES BY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/RLG
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...BELK/RLG
MARINE...BELK/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291516
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1116 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT
MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER.  A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND IF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***BEAUTIFUL WEATHER TODAY WITH PLEASANT TEMPS AND LOW HUMIDITY***

11 AM UPDATE...MADE A FEW MINOR UPDATES MAINLY TO SKY COVER
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL
MASSACHUSETTS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL RESULT IN
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY TODAY. UNDER A
MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR LATE JULY WILL COMBINE WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES/LIGHT WINDS...RESULTING IN AN EXCELLENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING.  LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S...TO THE LOWER 60S IN
THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF BOSTON/PROVIDENCE.  WE MAY EVEN SEE A FEW
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORMALLY COOLEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS OF
SOUTHWEST NH/WESTERN MA!  SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE IN
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD IS
ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.  HIGHS SHOULD
MAINLY BE IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 WITH LOW HUMIDITY.  A MIXTURE OF
CLOUDS AND SUN ANTICIPATED AS A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...BUT THE SHORTWAVE
COULD RESULT IN A PASSING SPRINKLE OR TWO.  WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK...BUT AT
THIS TIME APPEARS IT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO SPARE EVEN THE
CAPE/ISLANDS ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER
* LOW PRES COULD BRING RAIN ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH COAST SAT

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.  THERE
ARE DETAIL DIFFERENCES OF COURSE BUT OVERALL THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
PATTERN IS WELL MODELED.  THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. IS THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE LONG TERM.  THE TROUGH IS FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT MOISTURE
IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE
TROUGH.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

THE TROUGH AXIS STARTS TO SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST THIS WEEKEND...ALLOWING
MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT. THIS WILL BRING STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
REGION. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW CLOSE
THIS FRONT GETS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE CLOSER THE FRONT
COMES TO THE AREA...THE MORE WIDESPREAD THE RAIN. MODEL BLEND
CURRENTLY BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND
RHODE ISLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS OTHER THAN
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.  AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TIMING OF SEA BREEZE MAY BE A
LITTLE OFF. THINKING SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS NO LATER THAN 18Z.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR NW.  MVFR CONDITIONS MORE
PROBABLE SE IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LEFTOVER SWELL WILL ALLOW SCA SEAS TO
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS AND
WESTERN SOUNDS. OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANY LEFT OVER MARGINAL SCA
SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...FINE BOATING WEATHER AS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ALONG WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING
WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...BELK/FRANK/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 291516
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1116 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT
MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER.  A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND IF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***BEAUTIFUL WEATHER TODAY WITH PLEASANT TEMPS AND LOW HUMIDITY***

11 AM UPDATE...MADE A FEW MINOR UPDATES MAINLY TO SKY COVER
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL
MASSACHUSETTS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL RESULT IN
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY TODAY. UNDER A
MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR LATE JULY WILL COMBINE WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES/LIGHT WINDS...RESULTING IN AN EXCELLENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING.  LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S...TO THE LOWER 60S IN
THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF BOSTON/PROVIDENCE.  WE MAY EVEN SEE A FEW
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORMALLY COOLEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS OF
SOUTHWEST NH/WESTERN MA!  SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE IN
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD IS
ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.  HIGHS SHOULD
MAINLY BE IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 WITH LOW HUMIDITY.  A MIXTURE OF
CLOUDS AND SUN ANTICIPATED AS A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...BUT THE SHORTWAVE
COULD RESULT IN A PASSING SPRINKLE OR TWO.  WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK...BUT AT
THIS TIME APPEARS IT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO SPARE EVEN THE
CAPE/ISLANDS ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER
* LOW PRES COULD BRING RAIN ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH COAST SAT

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.  THERE
ARE DETAIL DIFFERENCES OF COURSE BUT OVERALL THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
PATTERN IS WELL MODELED.  THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. IS THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE LONG TERM.  THE TROUGH IS FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT MOISTURE
IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE
TROUGH.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

THE TROUGH AXIS STARTS TO SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST THIS WEEKEND...ALLOWING
MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT. THIS WILL BRING STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
REGION. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW CLOSE
THIS FRONT GETS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE CLOSER THE FRONT
COMES TO THE AREA...THE MORE WIDESPREAD THE RAIN. MODEL BLEND
CURRENTLY BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND
RHODE ISLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS OTHER THAN
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.  AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TIMING OF SEA BREEZE MAY BE A
LITTLE OFF. THINKING SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS NO LATER THAN 18Z.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR NW.  MVFR CONDITIONS MORE
PROBABLE SE IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LEFTOVER SWELL WILL ALLOW SCA SEAS TO
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS AND
WESTERN SOUNDS. OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANY LEFT OVER MARGINAL SCA
SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...FINE BOATING WEATHER AS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ALONG WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING
WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...BELK/FRANK/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291059
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
659 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT
MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER.  A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND IF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***BEAUTIFUL WEATHER TODAY WITH PLEASANT TEMPS AND LOW HUMIDITY***

7 AM UPDATE...MADE A FEW MINOR UPDATES MAINLY TO SKY COVER
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL
MASSACHUSETTS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE...ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
RESULT IN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY TODAY.
UNDER A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR LATE JULY WILL COMBINE WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES/LIGHT WINDS...RESULTING IN AN EXCELLENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING.  LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S...TO THE LOWER 60S IN
THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF BOSTON/PROVIDENCE.  WE MAY EVEN SEE A FEW
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORMALLY COOLEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS OF
SOUTHWEST NH/WESTERN MA!  SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE IN
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD IS
ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.  HIGHS SHOULD
MAINLY BE IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 WITH LOW HUMIDITY.  A MIXTURE OF
CLOUDS AND SUN ANTICIPATED AS A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...BUT THE SHORTWAVE
COULD RESULT IN A PASSING SPRINKLE OR TWO.  WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK...BUT AT
THIS TIME APPEARS IT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO SPARE EVEN THE
CAPE/ISLANDS ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER
* LOW PRES COULD BRING RAIN ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH COAST SAT

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.  THERE
ARE DETAIL DIFFERENCES OF COURSE BUT OVERALL THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
PATTERN IS WELL MODELED.  THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. IS THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE LONG TERM.  THE TROUGH IS FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT MOISTURE
IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE
TROUGH.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

THE TROUGH AXIS STARTS TO SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST THIS WEEKEND...
ALLOWING MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.  A FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ALONG THE FRONT.  THIS WILL BRING STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST A PORTION
OF THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW
CLOSE THIS FRONT GETS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE CLOSER THE FRONT
COMES TO THE AREA...THE MORE WIDESPREAD THE RAIN.  MODEL BLEND
CURRENTLY BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND
RHODE ISLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS OTHER THAN
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.  AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  EXPECT AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR NW.  MVFR CONDITIONS MORE
PROBABLE SE IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LEFT OVER SWELL WILL ALLOW SCA SEAS TO
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS AND
WESTERN SOUNDS. OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANY LEFT OVER MARGINAL SCA
SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...FINE BOATING WEATHER AS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ALONG WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING
WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291059
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
659 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT
MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER.  A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND IF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***BEAUTIFUL WEATHER TODAY WITH PLEASANT TEMPS AND LOW HUMIDITY***

7 AM UPDATE...MADE A FEW MINOR UPDATES MAINLY TO SKY COVER
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL
MASSACHUSETTS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE...ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
RESULT IN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY TODAY.
UNDER A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR LATE JULY WILL COMBINE WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES/LIGHT WINDS...RESULTING IN AN EXCELLENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING.  LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S...TO THE LOWER 60S IN
THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF BOSTON/PROVIDENCE.  WE MAY EVEN SEE A FEW
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORMALLY COOLEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS OF
SOUTHWEST NH/WESTERN MA!  SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE IN
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD IS
ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.  HIGHS SHOULD
MAINLY BE IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 WITH LOW HUMIDITY.  A MIXTURE OF
CLOUDS AND SUN ANTICIPATED AS A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...BUT THE SHORTWAVE
COULD RESULT IN A PASSING SPRINKLE OR TWO.  WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK...BUT AT
THIS TIME APPEARS IT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO SPARE EVEN THE
CAPE/ISLANDS ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER
* LOW PRES COULD BRING RAIN ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH COAST SAT

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.  THERE
ARE DETAIL DIFFERENCES OF COURSE BUT OVERALL THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
PATTERN IS WELL MODELED.  THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. IS THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE LONG TERM.  THE TROUGH IS FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT MOISTURE
IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE
TROUGH.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

THE TROUGH AXIS STARTS TO SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST THIS WEEKEND...
ALLOWING MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.  A FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ALONG THE FRONT.  THIS WILL BRING STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST A PORTION
OF THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW
CLOSE THIS FRONT GETS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE CLOSER THE FRONT
COMES TO THE AREA...THE MORE WIDESPREAD THE RAIN.  MODEL BLEND
CURRENTLY BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND
RHODE ISLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS OTHER THAN
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.  AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  EXPECT AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR NW.  MVFR CONDITIONS MORE
PROBABLE SE IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LEFT OVER SWELL WILL ALLOW SCA SEAS TO
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS AND
WESTERN SOUNDS. OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANY LEFT OVER MARGINAL SCA
SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...FINE BOATING WEATHER AS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ALONG WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING
WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 290822
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
422 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT
MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER.  A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND IF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***BEAUTIFUL WEATHER TODAY WITH PLEASANT TEMPS AND LOW HUMIDITY***

SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE...ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
RESULT IN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY TODAY.
UNDER A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR LATE JULY WILL COMBINE WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES/LIGHT WINDS...RESULTING IN AN EXCELLENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING.  LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S...TO THE LOWER 60S IN
THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF BOSTON/PROVIDENCE.  WE MAY EVEN SEE A FEW
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORMALLY COOLEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS OF
SOUTHWEST NH/WESTERN MA!  SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE IN
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD IS
ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.  HIGHS SHOULD
MAINLY BE IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 WITH LOW HUMIDITY.  A MIXTURE OF
CLOUDS AND SUN ANTICIPATED AS A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...BUT THE SHORTWAVE
COULD RESULT IN A PASSING SPRINKLE OR TWO.  WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK...BUT AT
THIS TIME APPEARS IT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO SPARE EVEN THE
CAPE/ISLANDS ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER
* LOW PRES COULD BRING RAIN ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH COAST SAT

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.  THERE
ARE DETAIL DIFFERENCES OF COURSE BUT OVERALL THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
PATTERN IS WELL MODELED.  THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. IS THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE LONG TERM.  THE TROUGH IS FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT MOISTURE
IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE
TROUGH.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

THE TROUGH AXIS STARTS TO SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST THIS WEEKEND...
ALLOWING MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.  A FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ALONG THE FRONT.  THIS WILL BRING STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST A PORTION
OF THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW
CLOSE THIS FRONT GETS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE CLOSER THE FRONT
COMES TO THE AREA...THE MORE WIDESPREAD THE RAIN.  MODEL BLEND
CURRENTLY BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND
RHODE ISLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MARGINAL MVFR CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR
NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS OTHER THAN
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.  AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  EXPECT AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR NW.  MVFR CONDITIONS MORE
PROBABLE SE IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LEFT OVER SWELL WILL ALLOW SCA SEAS TO
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS AND
WESTERN SOUNDS. OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANY LEFT OVER MARGINAL SCA
SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...FINE BOATING WEATHER AS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ALONG WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING
WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 290822
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
422 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT
MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER.  A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND IF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
***BEAUTIFUL WEATHER TODAY WITH PLEASANT TEMPS AND LOW HUMIDITY***

SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE...ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
RESULT IN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY TODAY.
UNDER A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR LATE JULY WILL COMBINE WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES/LIGHT WINDS...RESULTING IN AN EXCELLENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING.  LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S...TO THE LOWER 60S IN
THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF BOSTON/PROVIDENCE.  WE MAY EVEN SEE A FEW
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORMALLY COOLEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS OF
SOUTHWEST NH/WESTERN MA!  SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE IN
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD IS
ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.  HIGHS SHOULD
MAINLY BE IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 WITH LOW HUMIDITY.  A MIXTURE OF
CLOUDS AND SUN ANTICIPATED AS A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...BUT THE SHORTWAVE
COULD RESULT IN A PASSING SPRINKLE OR TWO.  WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK...BUT AT
THIS TIME APPEARS IT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO SPARE EVEN THE
CAPE/ISLANDS ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER
* LOW PRES COULD BRING RAIN ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH COAST SAT

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.  THERE
ARE DETAIL DIFFERENCES OF COURSE BUT OVERALL THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
PATTERN IS WELL MODELED.  THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. IS THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE LONG TERM.  THE TROUGH IS FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT MOISTURE
IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE
TROUGH.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

THE TROUGH AXIS STARTS TO SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST THIS WEEKEND...
ALLOWING MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.  A FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ALONG THE FRONT.  THIS WILL BRING STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST A PORTION
OF THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW
CLOSE THIS FRONT GETS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE CLOSER THE FRONT
COMES TO THE AREA...THE MORE WIDESPREAD THE RAIN.  MODEL BLEND
CURRENTLY BRINGS THE PRECIP INTO SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND
RHODE ISLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MARGINAL MVFR CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR
NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS OTHER THAN
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.  AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  EXPECT AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR NW.  MVFR CONDITIONS MORE
PROBABLE SE IN -SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LEFT OVER SWELL WILL ALLOW SCA SEAS TO
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS AND
WESTERN SOUNDS. OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANY LEFT OVER MARGINAL SCA
SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...FINE BOATING WEATHER AS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ALONG WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING
WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290747
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
347 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE THU AND FRI...BUT
MOST OF THE TIME WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER.  A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND IF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE COAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

***BEAUTIFUL WEATHER TODAY WITH PLEASANT TEMPS AND LOW HUMIDITY***

SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE...ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
RESULT IN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY TODAY.
UNDER A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...

A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR LATE JULY WILL COMBINE WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES/LIGHT WINDS...RESULTING IN AN EXCELLENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING.  LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S...TO THE LOWER 60S IN
THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF BOSTON/PROVIDENCE.  WE MAY EVEN SEE A FEW
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORMALLY COOLEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS OF
SOUTHWEST NH/WESTERN MA!  SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE IN
THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD IS
ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.  THIS
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.  HIGHS SHOULD
MAINLY BE IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 WITH LOW HUMIDITY.  A MIXTURE OF
CLOUDS AND SUN ANTICIPATED AS A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...BUT THE SHORTWAVE
COULD RESULT IN A PASSING SPRINKLE OR TWO.  WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING EAST OF THE BENCHMARK...BUT AT
THIS TIME APPEARS IT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO SPARE EVEN THE
CAPE/ISLANDS ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* POSSIBLY UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID THIS WEEKEND

THURSDAY THRU FRIDAY...

LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS PERIOD
HOWEVER THE MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP
THE DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OFFSHORE. THUS MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI. HOWEVER GIVEN COOL TEMPS ALOFT
COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW CAN/T RULE OUT A LOW RISK OF A
FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS INLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL 500 HEIGHTS EXPECT LATE
JULY/EARLY AUG SUN ANGLE TO PROVIDE MILD DAYS BUT DEW PTS IN THE 50S
WILL YIELD COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHTS.

THIS WEEKEND...

NORTHEAST TROUGH RETROGRADES TO THE MS VLY THIS WEEKEND. THIS OPENS
THE DOOR FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE OFFSHORE FRONT TO BACK INTO
NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MA AND RI. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ALONG WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MARGINAL MVFR CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR
NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS OTHER THAN
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.  AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  EXPECT AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU
FRI THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE INTO THIS WEEKEND.

VFR EXPECT A LOW RISK FOR PATCHY IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF
MHT AND ORH. BY SAT CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR COMING ONSHORE INTO EASTERN
MA AND RI ALONG WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS. MARGINAL VFR-MVFR LIKELY
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LEFT OVER SWELL WILL ALLOW SCA SEAS TO
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS AND
WESTERN SOUNDS. OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANY LEFT OVER MARGINAL SCA
SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...FINE BOATING WEATHER AS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ALONG WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WED NIGHT THRU FRI THEN SE WINDS
POSSIBLY INCREASING SAT PENDING STRENGTH AND TRACK OF FRONTAL WAVE
MOVING NE FROM THE MID ATLC. FAIR VSBY WED THRU FRI THEN POSSIBLY
LOWERING SAT IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290550
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
150 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WORK WEEK. THIS WEEKEND AN OFFSHORE FRONT MAY BUILD BACK INTO NEW
ENGLAND ALONG WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
RISK OF SHOWERS AND MORE HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

150 AM UPDATE...

A BRIEF SPRINKLE OR TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST
MA/SOUTHWEST NH FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO.  OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER
THROUGH DAYBREAK AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S BY
DAYBREAK.  APPEARS THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH WIND TO PREVENT FOG IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY...RESULTING
IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH OF AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN SHOULD TOP OFF IN 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER HUMIDITY. WEAK GRADIENT SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG
BOTH COASTS. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY/QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WED THRU FRI
* POSSIBLY UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID THIS WEEKEND

WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...

LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS PERIOD
HOWEVER THE MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP
THE DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OFFSHORE. THUS MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI. HOWEVER GIVEN COOL TEMPS ALOFT
COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW CAN/T RULE OUT A LOW RISK OF A
FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS INLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL 500 HEIGHTS EXPECT LATE
JULY/EARLY AUG SUN ANGLE TO PROVIDE MILD DAYS BUT DEW PTS IN THE 50S
WILL YIELD COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHTS.

THIS WEEKEND...

NORTHEAST TROUGH RETROGRADES TO THE MS VLY THIS WEEKEND. THIS OPENS
THE DOOR FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE OFFSHORE FRONT TO BACK INTO
NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MA AND RI. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ALONG WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MARGINAL MVFR CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR
NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS OTHER THAN
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.  AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  EXPECT AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU
FRI THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE INTO THIS WEEKEND.

VFR EXPECT A LOW RISK FOR PATCHY IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF
MHT AND ORH. BY SAT CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR COMING ONSHORE INTO EASTERN
MA AND RI ALONG WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS. MARGINAL VFR-MVFR LIKELY
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ROUGH
SEAS ON SOUTH COASTAL WATERS...WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WATERS TONIGHT...BUT
EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY DENSE FOG...AT LEAST EARLY
TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES LATE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WED THRU FRI THEN SE WINDS POSSIBLY
INCREASING SAT PENDING STRENGTH AND TRACK OF FRONTAL WAVE MOVING NE
FROM THE MID ATLC. FAIR VSBY WED THRU FRI THEN POSSIBLY LOWERING SAT
IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR RIZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ235-237-250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA
MARINE...BELK/NOCERA



000
FXUS61 KBOX 290550
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
150 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WORK WEEK. THIS WEEKEND AN OFFSHORE FRONT MAY BUILD BACK INTO NEW
ENGLAND ALONG WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
RISK OF SHOWERS AND MORE HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

150 AM UPDATE...

A BRIEF SPRINKLE OR TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST
MA/SOUTHWEST NH FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO.  OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER
THROUGH DAYBREAK AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S BY
DAYBREAK.  APPEARS THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH WIND TO PREVENT FOG IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY...RESULTING
IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH OF AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN SHOULD TOP OFF IN 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER HUMIDITY. WEAK GRADIENT SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG
BOTH COASTS. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY/QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WED THRU FRI
* POSSIBLY UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID THIS WEEKEND

WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...

LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS PERIOD
HOWEVER THE MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP
THE DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OFFSHORE. THUS MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI. HOWEVER GIVEN COOL TEMPS ALOFT
COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW CAN/T RULE OUT A LOW RISK OF A
FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS INLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL 500 HEIGHTS EXPECT LATE
JULY/EARLY AUG SUN ANGLE TO PROVIDE MILD DAYS BUT DEW PTS IN THE 50S
WILL YIELD COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHTS.

THIS WEEKEND...

NORTHEAST TROUGH RETROGRADES TO THE MS VLY THIS WEEKEND. THIS OPENS
THE DOOR FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE OFFSHORE FRONT TO BACK INTO
NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MA AND RI. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ALONG WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MARGINAL MVFR CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR
NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS OTHER THAN
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.  AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  EXPECT AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU
FRI THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE INTO THIS WEEKEND.

VFR EXPECT A LOW RISK FOR PATCHY IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF
MHT AND ORH. BY SAT CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR COMING ONSHORE INTO EASTERN
MA AND RI ALONG WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS. MARGINAL VFR-MVFR LIKELY
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ROUGH
SEAS ON SOUTH COASTAL WATERS...WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WATERS TONIGHT...BUT
EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY DENSE FOG...AT LEAST EARLY
TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES LATE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WED THRU FRI THEN SE WINDS POSSIBLY
INCREASING SAT PENDING STRENGTH AND TRACK OF FRONTAL WAVE MOVING NE
FROM THE MID ATLC. FAIR VSBY WED THRU FRI THEN POSSIBLY LOWERING SAT
IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR RIZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ235-237-250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA
MARINE...BELK/NOCERA



000
FXUS61 KBOX 290550
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
150 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WORK WEEK. THIS WEEKEND AN OFFSHORE FRONT MAY BUILD BACK INTO NEW
ENGLAND ALONG WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
RISK OF SHOWERS AND MORE HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

150 AM UPDATE...

A BRIEF SPRINKLE OR TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST
MA/SOUTHWEST NH FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO.  OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER
THROUGH DAYBREAK AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S BY
DAYBREAK.  APPEARS THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH WIND TO PREVENT FOG IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY...RESULTING
IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH OF AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN SHOULD TOP OFF IN 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER HUMIDITY. WEAK GRADIENT SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG
BOTH COASTS. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY/QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WED THRU FRI
* POSSIBLY UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID THIS WEEKEND

WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...

LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS PERIOD
HOWEVER THE MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP
THE DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OFFSHORE. THUS MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI. HOWEVER GIVEN COOL TEMPS ALOFT
COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW CAN/T RULE OUT A LOW RISK OF A
FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS INLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL 500 HEIGHTS EXPECT LATE
JULY/EARLY AUG SUN ANGLE TO PROVIDE MILD DAYS BUT DEW PTS IN THE 50S
WILL YIELD COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHTS.

THIS WEEKEND...

NORTHEAST TROUGH RETROGRADES TO THE MS VLY THIS WEEKEND. THIS OPENS
THE DOOR FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE OFFSHORE FRONT TO BACK INTO
NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MA AND RI. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ALONG WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MARGINAL MVFR CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR
NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS OTHER THAN
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.  AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  EXPECT AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU
FRI THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE INTO THIS WEEKEND.

VFR EXPECT A LOW RISK FOR PATCHY IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF
MHT AND ORH. BY SAT CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR COMING ONSHORE INTO EASTERN
MA AND RI ALONG WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS. MARGINAL VFR-MVFR LIKELY
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ROUGH
SEAS ON SOUTH COASTAL WATERS...WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WATERS TONIGHT...BUT
EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY DENSE FOG...AT LEAST EARLY
TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES LATE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WED THRU FRI THEN SE WINDS POSSIBLY
INCREASING SAT PENDING STRENGTH AND TRACK OF FRONTAL WAVE MOVING NE
FROM THE MID ATLC. FAIR VSBY WED THRU FRI THEN POSSIBLY LOWERING SAT
IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR RIZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ235-237-250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA
MARINE...BELK/NOCERA



000
FXUS61 KBOX 290550
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
150 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WORK WEEK. THIS WEEKEND AN OFFSHORE FRONT MAY BUILD BACK INTO NEW
ENGLAND ALONG WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
RISK OF SHOWERS AND MORE HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

150 AM UPDATE...

A BRIEF SPRINKLE OR TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST
MA/SOUTHWEST NH FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO.  OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER
THROUGH DAYBREAK AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S BY
DAYBREAK.  APPEARS THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH WIND TO PREVENT FOG IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY...RESULTING
IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH OF AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN SHOULD TOP OFF IN 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER HUMIDITY. WEAK GRADIENT SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG
BOTH COASTS. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY/QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WED THRU FRI
* POSSIBLY UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID THIS WEEKEND

WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...

LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS PERIOD
HOWEVER THE MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP
THE DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OFFSHORE. THUS MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI. HOWEVER GIVEN COOL TEMPS ALOFT
COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW CAN/T RULE OUT A LOW RISK OF A
FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS INLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL 500 HEIGHTS EXPECT LATE
JULY/EARLY AUG SUN ANGLE TO PROVIDE MILD DAYS BUT DEW PTS IN THE 50S
WILL YIELD COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHTS.

THIS WEEKEND...

NORTHEAST TROUGH RETROGRADES TO THE MS VLY THIS WEEKEND. THIS OPENS
THE DOOR FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE OFFSHORE FRONT TO BACK INTO
NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MA AND RI. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ALONG WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MARGINAL MVFR CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR
NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR CONDITIONS OTHER THAN
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.  AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  EXPECT AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU
FRI THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE INTO THIS WEEKEND.

VFR EXPECT A LOW RISK FOR PATCHY IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF
MHT AND ORH. BY SAT CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR COMING ONSHORE INTO EASTERN
MA AND RI ALONG WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS. MARGINAL VFR-MVFR LIKELY
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ROUGH
SEAS ON SOUTH COASTAL WATERS...WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WATERS TONIGHT...BUT
EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY DENSE FOG...AT LEAST EARLY
TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES LATE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WED THRU FRI THEN SE WINDS POSSIBLY
INCREASING SAT PENDING STRENGTH AND TRACK OF FRONTAL WAVE MOVING NE
FROM THE MID ATLC. FAIR VSBY WED THRU FRI THEN POSSIBLY LOWERING SAT
IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR RIZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ235-237-250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA
MARINE...BELK/NOCERA



000
FXUS61 KBOX 290359
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1159 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WORK WEEK. THIS WEEKEND AN OFFSHORE FRONT MAY BUILD BACK INTO NEW
ENGLAND ALONG WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
RISK OF SHOWERS AND MORE HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

1155 PM UPDATE...

A BRIEF SPOT SHOWER TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN MA/SOUTHWEST
NH FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH
DAYBREAK AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.  LOW TEMPS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S BY DAYBREAK.  APPEARS
THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH WIND TO PREVENT FOG IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY...RESULTING
IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH OF AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN SHOULD TOP OFF IN 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER HUMIDITY. WEAK GRADIENT SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG
BOTH COASTS. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY/QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WED THRU FRI
* POSSIBLY UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID THIS WEEKEND

WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...

LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS PERIOD
HOWEVER THE MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP
THE DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OFFSHORE. THUS MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI. HOWEVER GIVEN COOL TEMPS ALOFT
COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW CAN/T RULE OUT A LOW RISK OF A
FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS INLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL 500 HEIGHTS EXPECT LATE
JULY/EARLY AUG SUN ANGLE TO PROVIDE MILD DAYS BUT DEW PTS IN THE 50S
WILL YIELD COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHTS.

THIS WEEKEND...

NORTHEAST TROUGH RETROGRADES TO THE MS VLY THIS WEEKEND. THIS OPENS
THE DOOR FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE OFFSHORE FRONT TO BACK INTO
NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MA AND RI. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ALONG WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.

MAINLY VFR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING BRIEF
MVFR IN SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH 29/02Z. PATCHY MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG. VFR TUE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
MAINLY VFR TUE NIGHT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU FRI
THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE INTO THIS WEEKEND.

VFR EXPECT A LOW RISK FOR PATCHY IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF
MHT AND ORH. BY SAT CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR COMING ONSHORE INTO EASTERN
MA AND RI ALONG WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS. MARGINAL VFR-MVFR LIKELY
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ROUGH
SEAS ON SOUTH COASTAL WATERS...WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WATERS TONIGHT...BUT
EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY DENSE FOG...AT LEAST EARLY
TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES LATE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WED THRU FRI THEN SE WINDS POSSIBLY
INCREASING SAT PENDING STRENGTH AND TRACK OF FRONTAL WAVE MOVING NE
FROM THE MID ATLC. FAIR VSBY WED THRU FRI THEN POSSIBLY LOWERING SAT
IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR RIZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...BELK/NOCERA
MARINE...BELK/NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290359
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1159 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WORK WEEK. THIS WEEKEND AN OFFSHORE FRONT MAY BUILD BACK INTO NEW
ENGLAND ALONG WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
RISK OF SHOWERS AND MORE HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

1155 PM UPDATE...

A BRIEF SPOT SHOWER TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN MA/SOUTHWEST
NH FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH
DAYBREAK AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.  LOW TEMPS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S BY DAYBREAK.  APPEARS
THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH WIND TO PREVENT FOG IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY...RESULTING
IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH OF AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN SHOULD TOP OFF IN 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER HUMIDITY. WEAK GRADIENT SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG
BOTH COASTS. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY/QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WED THRU FRI
* POSSIBLY UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID THIS WEEKEND

WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...

LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS PERIOD
HOWEVER THE MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP
THE DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OFFSHORE. THUS MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI. HOWEVER GIVEN COOL TEMPS ALOFT
COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW CAN/T RULE OUT A LOW RISK OF A
FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS INLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL 500 HEIGHTS EXPECT LATE
JULY/EARLY AUG SUN ANGLE TO PROVIDE MILD DAYS BUT DEW PTS IN THE 50S
WILL YIELD COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHTS.

THIS WEEKEND...

NORTHEAST TROUGH RETROGRADES TO THE MS VLY THIS WEEKEND. THIS OPENS
THE DOOR FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE OFFSHORE FRONT TO BACK INTO
NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MA AND RI. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ALONG WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.

MAINLY VFR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING BRIEF
MVFR IN SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH 29/02Z. PATCHY MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG. VFR TUE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
MAINLY VFR TUE NIGHT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU FRI
THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE INTO THIS WEEKEND.

VFR EXPECT A LOW RISK FOR PATCHY IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF
MHT AND ORH. BY SAT CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR COMING ONSHORE INTO EASTERN
MA AND RI ALONG WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS. MARGINAL VFR-MVFR LIKELY
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ROUGH
SEAS ON SOUTH COASTAL WATERS...WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WATERS TONIGHT...BUT
EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY DENSE FOG...AT LEAST EARLY
TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES LATE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WED THRU FRI THEN SE WINDS POSSIBLY
INCREASING SAT PENDING STRENGTH AND TRACK OF FRONTAL WAVE MOVING NE
FROM THE MID ATLC. FAIR VSBY WED THRU FRI THEN POSSIBLY LOWERING SAT
IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR RIZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...BELK/NOCERA
MARINE...BELK/NOCERA



000
FXUS61 KBOX 290103
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
902 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BY JULY STANDARDS WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING WITH ITS ATTENDING COLD
FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND THEN OFFSHORE
TUE. MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THIS WORK WEEK. THIS WEEKEND AN OFFSHORE FRONT MAY BUILD BACK
INTO NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND MORE HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

9 PM UPDATE...

ALTHOUGH THE ACTUAL SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS YET TO CROSS THE
REGION...THE BEST DYNAMICS/FORCING HAVE LIFTED INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND INSTABILITY WAS DIMINISHING.  THEREFORE...JUST A EXPECT
A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BUT PROBABLY
NOT ANY ADDITIONAL THUNDER.  IN FACT...ANY LEFT OVER SPOT SHOWERS
SHOULD PRETTY MUCH COME TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
EVENTUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.  LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY...RESULTING
IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH OF AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN SHOULD TOP OFF IN 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER HUMIDITY. WEAK GRADIENT SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG
BOTH COASTS. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY/QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WED THRU FRI
* POSSIBLY UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID THIS WEEKEND

WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...

LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS PERIOD
HOWEVER THE MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP
THE DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OFFSHORE. THUS MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI. HOWEVER GIVEN COOL TEMPS ALOFT
COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW CAN/T RULE OUT A LOW RISK OF A
FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS INLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL 500 HEIGHTS EXPECT LATE
JULY/EARLY AUG SUN ANGLE TO PROVIDE MILD DAYS BUT DEW PTS IN THE 50S
WILL YIELD COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHTS.

THIS WEEKEND...

NORTHEAST TROUGH RETROGRADES TO THE MS VLY THIS WEEKEND. THIS OPENS
THE DOOR FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE OFFSHORE FRONT TO BACK INTO
NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MA AND RI. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ALONG WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.

MAINLY VFR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING BRIEF
MVFR IN SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH 29/02Z. PATCHY MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG. VFR TUE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
MAINLY VFR TUE NIGHT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU FRI
THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE INTO THIS WEEKEND.

VFR EXPECT A LOW RISK FOR PATCHY IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF
MHT AND ORH. BY SAT CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR COMING ONSHORE INTO EASTERN
MA AND RI ALONG WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS. MARGINAL VFR-MVFR LIKELY
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ROUGH
SEAS ON SOUTH COASTAL WATERS...WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WATERS TONIGHT...BUT
EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY DENSE FOG...AT LEAST EARLY
TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES LATE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WED THRU FRI THEN SE WINDS POSSIBLY
INCREASING SAT PENDING STRENGTH AND TRACK OF FRONTAL WAVE MOVING NE
FROM THE MID ATLC. FAIR VSBY WED THRU FRI THEN POSSIBLY LOWERING SAT
IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR RIZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...BELK/NOCERA
MARINE...BELK/NOCERA



000
FXUS61 KBOX 290103
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
902 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BY JULY STANDARDS WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING WITH ITS ATTENDING COLD
FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND THEN OFFSHORE
TUE. MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THIS WORK WEEK. THIS WEEKEND AN OFFSHORE FRONT MAY BUILD BACK
INTO NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND MORE HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

9 PM UPDATE...

ALTHOUGH THE ACTUAL SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS YET TO CROSS THE
REGION...THE BEST DYNAMICS/FORCING HAVE LIFTED INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND INSTABILITY WAS DIMINISHING.  THEREFORE...JUST A EXPECT
A FEW HIT AND MISS SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BUT PROBABLY
NOT ANY ADDITIONAL THUNDER.  IN FACT...ANY LEFT OVER SPOT SHOWERS
SHOULD PRETTY MUCH COME TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
EVENTUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.  LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY...RESULTING
IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH OF AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN SHOULD TOP OFF IN 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER HUMIDITY. WEAK GRADIENT SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG
BOTH COASTS. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY/QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WED THRU FRI
* POSSIBLY UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID THIS WEEKEND

WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...

LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS PERIOD
HOWEVER THE MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP
THE DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OFFSHORE. THUS MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI. HOWEVER GIVEN COOL TEMPS ALOFT
COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW CAN/T RULE OUT A LOW RISK OF A
FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS INLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL 500 HEIGHTS EXPECT LATE
JULY/EARLY AUG SUN ANGLE TO PROVIDE MILD DAYS BUT DEW PTS IN THE 50S
WILL YIELD COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHTS.

THIS WEEKEND...

NORTHEAST TROUGH RETROGRADES TO THE MS VLY THIS WEEKEND. THIS OPENS
THE DOOR FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE OFFSHORE FRONT TO BACK INTO
NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MA AND RI. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ALONG WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.

MAINLY VFR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING BRIEF
MVFR IN SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH 29/02Z. PATCHY MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG. VFR TUE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
MAINLY VFR TUE NIGHT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU FRI
THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE INTO THIS WEEKEND.

VFR EXPECT A LOW RISK FOR PATCHY IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF
MHT AND ORH. BY SAT CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR COMING ONSHORE INTO EASTERN
MA AND RI ALONG WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS. MARGINAL VFR-MVFR LIKELY
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ROUGH
SEAS ON SOUTH COASTAL WATERS...WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WATERS TONIGHT...BUT
EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY DENSE FOG...AT LEAST EARLY
TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES LATE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WED THRU FRI THEN SE WINDS POSSIBLY
INCREASING SAT PENDING STRENGTH AND TRACK OF FRONTAL WAVE MOVING NE
FROM THE MID ATLC. FAIR VSBY WED THRU FRI THEN POSSIBLY LOWERING SAT
IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR RIZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...BELK/NOCERA
MARINE...BELK/NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 282334
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
734 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BY JULY STANDARDS WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING WITH ITS ATTENDING COLD
FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND THEN OFFSHORE
TUE. MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THIS WORK WEEK. THIS WEEKEND AN OFFSHORE FRONT MAY BUILD BACK
INTO NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND MORE HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWING 500-1000 J/KG MEAN LAYER CAPE ACROSS
MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH THE INSTABILITY DROPPING OFF
RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING. EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF 30-45 KT
WERE STILL OBSERVED ACROSS EASTERN MA. WITH THE DECREASING
INSTABILITY THOUGH...THE POTENTIAL OF THIS SHEAR IS NOT LIKELY TO
BE MAXIMIZED. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 8 PM.

MAIN ADJUSTMENTS THIS EVENING WERE TO ADJUST NEAR TERM CONDITIONS
TO REFLECT THE LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS.

ONCE STORMS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...EXPECTING A COLD FRONT TO
FINALLY PUSH OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS SHOULD MEAN LESS HUMID
AIR ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT...ALONG WITH DRIER AIR AND CLEARER SKIES.
DEPENDING UPON THE TIMING OF THE CLEARING...AND THE AMOUNT OF
LEFTOVER LOW-LEVEL HUMIDITY...THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS OF FOG IN
THE USUAL VALLEYS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY...RESULTING
IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH OF AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN SHOULD TOP OFF IN 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER HUMIDITY. WEAK GRADIENT SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
ALONG BOTH COASTS. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY/QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WED THRU FRI
* POSSIBLY UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID THIS WEEKEND

WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...

LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS PERIOD
HOWEVER THE MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP
THE DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OFFSHORE. THUS MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI. HOWEVER GIVEN COOL TEMPS ALOFT
COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW CAN/T RULE OUT A LOW RISK OF A
FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS INLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL 500 HEIGHTS EXPECT LATE
JULY/EARLY AUG SUN ANGLE TO PROVIDE MILD DAYS BUT DEW PTS IN THE 50S
WILL YIELD COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHTS.

THIS WEEKEND...

NORTHEAST TROUGH RETROGRADES TO THE MS VLY THIS WEEKEND. THIS OPENS
THE DOOR FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE OFFSHORE FRONT TO BACK INTO
NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MA AND RI. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ALONG WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.

MAINLY VFR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING BRIEF
MVFR IN SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH 29/02Z. PATCHY MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG. VFR TUE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
MAINLY VFR TUE NIGHT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU FRI
THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE INTO THIS WEEKEND.

VFR EXPECT A LOW RISK FOR PATCHY IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF
MHT AND ORH. BY SAT CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR COMING ONSHORE INTO EASTERN
MA AND RI ALONG WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS. MARGINAL VFR-MVFR LIKELY
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ROUGH
SEAS ON SOUTH COASTAL WATERS...WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WATERS TONIGHT...BUT
EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY DENSE FOG...AT LEAST EARLY
TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES LATE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WED THRU FRI THEN SE WINDS POSSIBLY
INCREASING SAT PENDING STRENGTH AND TRACK OF FRONTAL WAVE MOVING NE
FROM THE MID ATLC. FAIR VSBY WED THRU FRI THEN POSSIBLY LOWERING SAT
IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR RIZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...BELK/NOCERA
MARINE...BELK/NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 282334
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
734 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BY JULY STANDARDS WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING WITH ITS ATTENDING COLD
FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND THEN OFFSHORE
TUE. MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THIS WORK WEEK. THIS WEEKEND AN OFFSHORE FRONT MAY BUILD BACK
INTO NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND MORE HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWING 500-1000 J/KG MEAN LAYER CAPE ACROSS
MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH THE INSTABILITY DROPPING OFF
RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING. EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF 30-45 KT
WERE STILL OBSERVED ACROSS EASTERN MA. WITH THE DECREASING
INSTABILITY THOUGH...THE POTENTIAL OF THIS SHEAR IS NOT LIKELY TO
BE MAXIMIZED. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 8 PM.

MAIN ADJUSTMENTS THIS EVENING WERE TO ADJUST NEAR TERM CONDITIONS
TO REFLECT THE LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS.

ONCE STORMS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...EXPECTING A COLD FRONT TO
FINALLY PUSH OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS SHOULD MEAN LESS HUMID
AIR ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT...ALONG WITH DRIER AIR AND CLEARER SKIES.
DEPENDING UPON THE TIMING OF THE CLEARING...AND THE AMOUNT OF
LEFTOVER LOW-LEVEL HUMIDITY...THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS OF FOG IN
THE USUAL VALLEYS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY...RESULTING
IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH OF AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN SHOULD TOP OFF IN 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER HUMIDITY. WEAK GRADIENT SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
ALONG BOTH COASTS. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY/QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WED THRU FRI
* POSSIBLY UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID THIS WEEKEND

WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...

LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS PERIOD
HOWEVER THE MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP
THE DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OFFSHORE. THUS MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI. HOWEVER GIVEN COOL TEMPS ALOFT
COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW CAN/T RULE OUT A LOW RISK OF A
FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS INLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL 500 HEIGHTS EXPECT LATE
JULY/EARLY AUG SUN ANGLE TO PROVIDE MILD DAYS BUT DEW PTS IN THE 50S
WILL YIELD COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHTS.

THIS WEEKEND...

NORTHEAST TROUGH RETROGRADES TO THE MS VLY THIS WEEKEND. THIS OPENS
THE DOOR FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE OFFSHORE FRONT TO BACK INTO
NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MA AND RI. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ALONG WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.

MAINLY VFR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING BRIEF
MVFR IN SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH 29/02Z. PATCHY MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG. VFR TUE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
MAINLY VFR TUE NIGHT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU FRI
THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE INTO THIS WEEKEND.

VFR EXPECT A LOW RISK FOR PATCHY IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF
MHT AND ORH. BY SAT CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR COMING ONSHORE INTO EASTERN
MA AND RI ALONG WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS. MARGINAL VFR-MVFR LIKELY
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ROUGH
SEAS ON SOUTH COASTAL WATERS...WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WATERS TONIGHT...BUT
EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY DENSE FOG...AT LEAST EARLY
TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES LATE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WED THRU FRI THEN SE WINDS POSSIBLY
INCREASING SAT PENDING STRENGTH AND TRACK OF FRONTAL WAVE MOVING NE
FROM THE MID ATLC. FAIR VSBY WED THRU FRI THEN POSSIBLY LOWERING SAT
IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR RIZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...BELK/NOCERA
MARINE...BELK/NOCERA



000
FXUS61 KBOX 281905
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
305 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BY JULY STANDARDS WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING WITH ITS ATTENDING COLD
FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND THEN OFFSHORE
TUE. MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THIS WORK WEEK. THIS WEEKEND AN OFFSHORE FRONT MAY BUILD BACK
INTO NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND MORE HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
*** FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ***

LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWING IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG MEAN LAYER CAPE
ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES WERE
APPROACHING 2000 J/KG. IN ADDITION TO THIS FAIRLY POTENT
INSTABILITY...EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF 30-45 KT WERE OBSERVED.
ALL THESE INGREDIENTS POINT TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 8 PM. WE ARE MONITORING.

ONCE STORMS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...EXPECTING A COLD FRONT TO
FINALLY PUSH OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS SHOULD MEAN LESS HUMID
AIR ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT...ALONG WITH DRIER AIR AND CLEARER SKIES.
DEPENDING UPON THE TIMING OF THE CLEARING...AND THE AMOUNT OF
LEFTOVER LOW-LEVEL HUMIDITY...THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS OF FOG IN
THE USUAL VALLEYS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY...RESULTING
IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH OF AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN SHOULD TOP OFF IN 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER HUMIDITY. WEAK GRADIENT SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
ALONG BOTH COASTS. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY/QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WED THRU FRI
* POSSIBLY UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID THIS WEEKEND

WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...

LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS PERIOD
HOWEVER THE MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP
THE DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OFFSHORE. THUS MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI. HOWEVER GIVEN COOL TEMPS ALOFT
COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW CAN/T RULE OUT A LOW RISK OF A
FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS INLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL 500 HEIGHTS EXPECT LATE
JULY/EARLY AUG SUN ANGLE TO PROVIDE MILD DAYS BUT DEW PTS IN THE 50S
WILL YIELD COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHTS.

THIS WEEKEND...

NORTHEAST TROUGH RETROGRADES TO THE MS VLY THIS WEEKEND. THIS OPENS
THE DOOR FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE OFFSHORE FRONT TO BACK INTO
NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MA AND RI. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ALONG WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.

MAINLY VFR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SCATTERED MVFR IN LOW CLOUDS TOWARDS THE SOUTH COAST. EXPECTING
MORE MVFR...AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR...IN SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
THROUGH 29/00Z. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG OR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR AFTER 00Z TUE...ALTHOUGH PATCHY
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG. VFR TUE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
MAINLY VFR TUE NIGHT.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MOST TSRA SHOULD REMAIN W
OF AIRPORT THROUGH 29/00Z.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TS MOST LIKELY THROUGH
28/22Z.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU FRI
THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE INTO THIS WEEKEND.

VFR EXPECT A LOW RISK FOR PATCHY IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF
MHT AND ORH. BY SAT CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR COMING ONSHORE INTO EASTERN
MA AND RI ALONG WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS. MARGINAL VFR-MVFR LIKELY
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ROUGH
SEAS ON SOUTH COASTAL WATERS...WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WATERS TONIGHT...BUT
EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY DENSE FOG...AT LEAST EARLY
TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES LATE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WED THRU FRI THEN SE WINDS POSSIBLY
INCREASING SAT PENDING STRENGTH AND TRACK OF FRONTAL WAVE MOVING NE
FROM THE MID ATLC. FAIR VSBY WED THRU FRI THEN POSSIBLY LOWERING SAT
IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...BELK/NOCERA
MARINE...BELK/NOCERA



000
FXUS61 KBOX 281905
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
305 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BY JULY STANDARDS WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING WITH ITS ATTENDING COLD
FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND THEN OFFSHORE
TUE. MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THIS WORK WEEK. THIS WEEKEND AN OFFSHORE FRONT MAY BUILD BACK
INTO NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND MORE HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
*** FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ***

LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWING IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG MEAN LAYER CAPE
ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES WERE
APPROACHING 2000 J/KG. IN ADDITION TO THIS FAIRLY POTENT
INSTABILITY...EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF 30-45 KT WERE OBSERVED.
ALL THESE INGREDIENTS POINT TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 8 PM. WE ARE MONITORING.

ONCE STORMS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...EXPECTING A COLD FRONT TO
FINALLY PUSH OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS SHOULD MEAN LESS HUMID
AIR ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT...ALONG WITH DRIER AIR AND CLEARER SKIES.
DEPENDING UPON THE TIMING OF THE CLEARING...AND THE AMOUNT OF
LEFTOVER LOW-LEVEL HUMIDITY...THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS OF FOG IN
THE USUAL VALLEYS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY...RESULTING
IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH OF AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN SHOULD TOP OFF IN 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER HUMIDITY. WEAK GRADIENT SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
ALONG BOTH COASTS. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY/QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WED THRU FRI
* POSSIBLY UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID THIS WEEKEND

WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...

LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS PERIOD
HOWEVER THE MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP
THE DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OFFSHORE. THUS MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI. HOWEVER GIVEN COOL TEMPS ALOFT
COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW CAN/T RULE OUT A LOW RISK OF A
FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS INLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL 500 HEIGHTS EXPECT LATE
JULY/EARLY AUG SUN ANGLE TO PROVIDE MILD DAYS BUT DEW PTS IN THE 50S
WILL YIELD COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHTS.

THIS WEEKEND...

NORTHEAST TROUGH RETROGRADES TO THE MS VLY THIS WEEKEND. THIS OPENS
THE DOOR FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE OFFSHORE FRONT TO BACK INTO
NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MA AND RI. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ALONG WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.

MAINLY VFR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SCATTERED MVFR IN LOW CLOUDS TOWARDS THE SOUTH COAST. EXPECTING
MORE MVFR...AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR...IN SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
THROUGH 29/00Z. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG OR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR AFTER 00Z TUE...ALTHOUGH PATCHY
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG. VFR TUE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
MAINLY VFR TUE NIGHT.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MOST TSRA SHOULD REMAIN W
OF AIRPORT THROUGH 29/00Z.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. TS MOST LIKELY THROUGH
28/22Z.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU FRI
THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE INTO THIS WEEKEND.

VFR EXPECT A LOW RISK FOR PATCHY IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF
MHT AND ORH. BY SAT CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR COMING ONSHORE INTO EASTERN
MA AND RI ALONG WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS. MARGINAL VFR-MVFR LIKELY
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ROUGH
SEAS ON SOUTH COASTAL WATERS...WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WATERS TONIGHT...BUT
EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY DENSE FOG...AT LEAST EARLY
TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES LATE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE WATERS TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WED THRU FRI THEN SE WINDS POSSIBLY
INCREASING SAT PENDING STRENGTH AND TRACK OF FRONTAL WAVE MOVING NE
FROM THE MID ATLC. FAIR VSBY WED THRU FRI THEN POSSIBLY LOWERING SAT
IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...BELK/NOCERA
MARINE...BELK/NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 281835
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
235 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BY JULY STANDARDS WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING WITH ITS ATTENDING COLD
FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND THEN OFFSHORE
TUE. MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WEEKEND THE FRONT OFFSHORE MAY BUILD BACK
INTO NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND MORE HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

*** FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ***

1135 AM UPDATE...
JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. SUNSHINE HAS
BROKEN THROUGH THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

ONCE THIS INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS LIFTS N BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS.

MODELS INSISTENT THAT DRY SLOT WILL WORK ITS WAY UP COAST INTO SE
NEW ENGLAND...AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD RESIDE ACROSS INTERIOR AS
SEEN IN K-INDEX FIELDS. INSTABILITY IS IN QUESTION AS WE ARE NOT
CONFIDENT ON HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR...IF AT ALL. BUT
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF HIGH 0-6KM SHEAR /OVER 35KT/ AND GOOD LOW
LEVEL TURNING IN FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL ARE MAIN THREATS...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
WEAK TORNADO GIVEN HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...LOW LCL/S AND
PRESENCE OF CLOSED UPPER LOW. SYSTEM ALSO HAS HISTORY OF PRODUCING
A FEW WEAK TORNADOES THUS FAR AS WELL.

GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT OF HEATING...STAYED CLOSE TO MODEL
BLEND FOR HIGHS TODAY /70S TO AROUND 80/ WHICH ALSO MATCHES MIXING
TO 850 MB /10-11C/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH REGION TONIGHT BRINGING MUCH LESS HUMID
AIR BY DAYBREAK AS SKIES CLEAR. LIGHT WINDS WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE
MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG ACROSS INTERIOR.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TUE...RESULTING IN
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH OF AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGHS ONCE AGAIN
SHOULD TOP OFF IN 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT WITH LOW HUMIDITY. WEAK
GRADIENT SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG BOTH COASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY/QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WED THRU FRI
* POSSIBLY UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID THIS WEEKEND

WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...

LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS PERIOD
HOWEVER THE MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP
THE DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OFFSHORE. THUS MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI. HOWEVER GIVEN COOL TEMPS ALOFT
COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW CAN/T RULE OUT A LOW RISK OF A
FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS INLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL 500 HEIGHTS EXPECT LATE
JULY/EARLY AUG SUN ANGLE TO PROVIDE MILD DAYS BUT DEW PTS IN THE 50S
WILL YIELD COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHTS.

THIS WEEKEND...

NORTHEAST TROUGH RETROGRADES TO THE MS VLY THIS WEEKEND. THIS OPENS
THE DOOR FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE OFFSHORE FRONT TO BACK INTO
NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MA AND RI. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ALONG WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS TODAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.

SCATTERED IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...OTHERWISE VFR DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA AND RI.

SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOW REDEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AFTER
18Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY TSTMS. BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS
WILL BE IN AREAS ALONG/WEST/NORTH OF I-495. THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE STORMS IN THIS AREA TO PRODUCE STRONG OR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR AFTER 00Z TUE...ALTHOUGH PATCHY
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG. VFR TUE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CIGS/VSBYS...FAIRLY CONFIDENT
ON IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 15Z. TS SHOULD REMAIN W OF AIRPORT
18Z-22Z.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIFR CIGS/VSBYS...FAIRLY
CONFIDENT IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z. TS MOST LIKELY 18Z-
22Z.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU FRI
THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE INTO THIS WEEKEND.

VFR EXPECT A LOW RISK FOR PATCHY IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF
MHT AND ORH. BY SAT CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR COMING ONSHORE INTO EASTERN
MA AND RI ALONG WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS. MARGINAL VFR-MVFR LIKELY
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ROUGH SEAS ON
S COASTAL WATERS WHERE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO TUE.

S/SW FLOW PREVAILS TODAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS ON S
COASTAL WATERS...REACHING AS HIGH AS 5 OR 6 FT OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING
ON S COASTAL WATERS.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS WATERS THIS MORNING FROM LONG
ISLAND. SO FAR THESE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 35KT. POSSIBILITY OF A FEW MORE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ON E MA WATERS.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES WATERS TONIGHT BUT EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
PATCHY DENSE FOG...AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TUE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WED THRU FRI THEN SE WINDS POSSIBLY
INCREASING SAT PENDING STRENGTH AND TRACK OF FRONTAL WAVE MOVING NE
FROM THE MID ATLC. FAIR VSBY WED THRU FRI THEN POSSIBLY LOWERING SAT
IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...BELK/NOCERA
MARINE...BELK/NOCERA



000
FXUS61 KBOX 281835
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
235 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BY JULY STANDARDS WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING WITH ITS ATTENDING COLD
FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND THEN OFFSHORE
TUE. MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WEEKEND THE FRONT OFFSHORE MAY BUILD BACK
INTO NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND MORE HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

*** FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ***

1135 AM UPDATE...
JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. SUNSHINE HAS
BROKEN THROUGH THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

ONCE THIS INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS LIFTS N BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS.

MODELS INSISTENT THAT DRY SLOT WILL WORK ITS WAY UP COAST INTO SE
NEW ENGLAND...AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD RESIDE ACROSS INTERIOR AS
SEEN IN K-INDEX FIELDS. INSTABILITY IS IN QUESTION AS WE ARE NOT
CONFIDENT ON HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR...IF AT ALL. BUT
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF HIGH 0-6KM SHEAR /OVER 35KT/ AND GOOD LOW
LEVEL TURNING IN FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL ARE MAIN THREATS...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
WEAK TORNADO GIVEN HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...LOW LCL/S AND
PRESENCE OF CLOSED UPPER LOW. SYSTEM ALSO HAS HISTORY OF PRODUCING
A FEW WEAK TORNADOES THUS FAR AS WELL.

GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT OF HEATING...STAYED CLOSE TO MODEL
BLEND FOR HIGHS TODAY /70S TO AROUND 80/ WHICH ALSO MATCHES MIXING
TO 850 MB /10-11C/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH REGION TONIGHT BRINGING MUCH LESS HUMID
AIR BY DAYBREAK AS SKIES CLEAR. LIGHT WINDS WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE
MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG ACROSS INTERIOR.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TUE...RESULTING IN
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH OF AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGHS ONCE AGAIN
SHOULD TOP OFF IN 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT WITH LOW HUMIDITY. WEAK
GRADIENT SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG BOTH COASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY/QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WED THRU FRI
* POSSIBLY UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID THIS WEEKEND

WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...

LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS PERIOD
HOWEVER THE MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP
THE DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OFFSHORE. THUS MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI. HOWEVER GIVEN COOL TEMPS ALOFT
COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW CAN/T RULE OUT A LOW RISK OF A
FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS INLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL 500 HEIGHTS EXPECT LATE
JULY/EARLY AUG SUN ANGLE TO PROVIDE MILD DAYS BUT DEW PTS IN THE 50S
WILL YIELD COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHTS.

THIS WEEKEND...

NORTHEAST TROUGH RETROGRADES TO THE MS VLY THIS WEEKEND. THIS OPENS
THE DOOR FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE OFFSHORE FRONT TO BACK INTO
NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MA AND RI. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ALONG WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS TODAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.

SCATTERED IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...OTHERWISE VFR DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA AND RI.

SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOW REDEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AFTER
18Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY TSTMS. BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS
WILL BE IN AREAS ALONG/WEST/NORTH OF I-495. THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE STORMS IN THIS AREA TO PRODUCE STRONG OR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR AFTER 00Z TUE...ALTHOUGH PATCHY
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG. VFR TUE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CIGS/VSBYS...FAIRLY CONFIDENT
ON IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 15Z. TS SHOULD REMAIN W OF AIRPORT
18Z-22Z.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIFR CIGS/VSBYS...FAIRLY
CONFIDENT IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z. TS MOST LIKELY 18Z-
22Z.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU FRI
THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE INTO THIS WEEKEND.

VFR EXPECT A LOW RISK FOR PATCHY IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF
MHT AND ORH. BY SAT CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR COMING ONSHORE INTO EASTERN
MA AND RI ALONG WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS. MARGINAL VFR-MVFR LIKELY
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ROUGH SEAS ON
S COASTAL WATERS WHERE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO TUE.

S/SW FLOW PREVAILS TODAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS ON S
COASTAL WATERS...REACHING AS HIGH AS 5 OR 6 FT OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING
ON S COASTAL WATERS.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS WATERS THIS MORNING FROM LONG
ISLAND. SO FAR THESE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 35KT. POSSIBILITY OF A FEW MORE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ON E MA WATERS.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES WATERS TONIGHT BUT EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
PATCHY DENSE FOG...AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TUE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WED THRU FRI THEN SE WINDS POSSIBLY
INCREASING SAT PENDING STRENGTH AND TRACK OF FRONTAL WAVE MOVING NE
FROM THE MID ATLC. FAIR VSBY WED THRU FRI THEN POSSIBLY LOWERING SAT
IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...BELK/NOCERA
MARINE...BELK/NOCERA



000
FXUS61 KBOX 281835
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
235 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BY JULY STANDARDS WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING WITH ITS ATTENDING COLD
FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND THEN OFFSHORE
TUE. MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WEEKEND THE FRONT OFFSHORE MAY BUILD BACK
INTO NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND MORE HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

*** FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ***

1135 AM UPDATE...
JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. SUNSHINE HAS
BROKEN THROUGH THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

ONCE THIS INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS LIFTS N BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS.

MODELS INSISTENT THAT DRY SLOT WILL WORK ITS WAY UP COAST INTO SE
NEW ENGLAND...AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD RESIDE ACROSS INTERIOR AS
SEEN IN K-INDEX FIELDS. INSTABILITY IS IN QUESTION AS WE ARE NOT
CONFIDENT ON HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR...IF AT ALL. BUT
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF HIGH 0-6KM SHEAR /OVER 35KT/ AND GOOD LOW
LEVEL TURNING IN FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL ARE MAIN THREATS...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
WEAK TORNADO GIVEN HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...LOW LCL/S AND
PRESENCE OF CLOSED UPPER LOW. SYSTEM ALSO HAS HISTORY OF PRODUCING
A FEW WEAK TORNADOES THUS FAR AS WELL.

GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT OF HEATING...STAYED CLOSE TO MODEL
BLEND FOR HIGHS TODAY /70S TO AROUND 80/ WHICH ALSO MATCHES MIXING
TO 850 MB /10-11C/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH REGION TONIGHT BRINGING MUCH LESS HUMID
AIR BY DAYBREAK AS SKIES CLEAR. LIGHT WINDS WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE
MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG ACROSS INTERIOR.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TUE...RESULTING IN
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH OF AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGHS ONCE AGAIN
SHOULD TOP OFF IN 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT WITH LOW HUMIDITY. WEAK
GRADIENT SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG BOTH COASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY/QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WED THRU FRI
* POSSIBLY UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID THIS WEEKEND

WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...

LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS PERIOD
HOWEVER THE MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP
THE DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OFFSHORE. THUS MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI. HOWEVER GIVEN COOL TEMPS ALOFT
COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW CAN/T RULE OUT A LOW RISK OF A
FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS INLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL 500 HEIGHTS EXPECT LATE
JULY/EARLY AUG SUN ANGLE TO PROVIDE MILD DAYS BUT DEW PTS IN THE 50S
WILL YIELD COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHTS.

THIS WEEKEND...

NORTHEAST TROUGH RETROGRADES TO THE MS VLY THIS WEEKEND. THIS OPENS
THE DOOR FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE OFFSHORE FRONT TO BACK INTO
NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MA AND RI. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ALONG WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS TODAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.

SCATTERED IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...OTHERWISE VFR DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA AND RI.

SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOW REDEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AFTER
18Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY TSTMS. BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS
WILL BE IN AREAS ALONG/WEST/NORTH OF I-495. THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE STORMS IN THIS AREA TO PRODUCE STRONG OR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR AFTER 00Z TUE...ALTHOUGH PATCHY
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG. VFR TUE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CIGS/VSBYS...FAIRLY CONFIDENT
ON IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 15Z. TS SHOULD REMAIN W OF AIRPORT
18Z-22Z.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIFR CIGS/VSBYS...FAIRLY
CONFIDENT IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z. TS MOST LIKELY 18Z-
22Z.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU FRI
THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE INTO THIS WEEKEND.

VFR EXPECT A LOW RISK FOR PATCHY IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF
MHT AND ORH. BY SAT CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR COMING ONSHORE INTO EASTERN
MA AND RI ALONG WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS. MARGINAL VFR-MVFR LIKELY
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ROUGH SEAS ON
S COASTAL WATERS WHERE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO TUE.

S/SW FLOW PREVAILS TODAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS ON S
COASTAL WATERS...REACHING AS HIGH AS 5 OR 6 FT OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING
ON S COASTAL WATERS.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS WATERS THIS MORNING FROM LONG
ISLAND. SO FAR THESE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 35KT. POSSIBILITY OF A FEW MORE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ON E MA WATERS.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES WATERS TONIGHT BUT EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
PATCHY DENSE FOG...AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TUE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WED THRU FRI THEN SE WINDS POSSIBLY
INCREASING SAT PENDING STRENGTH AND TRACK OF FRONTAL WAVE MOVING NE
FROM THE MID ATLC. FAIR VSBY WED THRU FRI THEN POSSIBLY LOWERING SAT
IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...BELK/NOCERA
MARINE...BELK/NOCERA



000
FXUS61 KBOX 281835
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
235 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BY JULY STANDARDS WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING WITH ITS ATTENDING COLD
FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND THEN OFFSHORE
TUE. MAINLY DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WEEKEND THE FRONT OFFSHORE MAY BUILD BACK
INTO NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND MORE HUMID WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

*** FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ***

1135 AM UPDATE...
JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. SUNSHINE HAS
BROKEN THROUGH THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

ONCE THIS INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS LIFTS N BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS.

MODELS INSISTENT THAT DRY SLOT WILL WORK ITS WAY UP COAST INTO SE
NEW ENGLAND...AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD RESIDE ACROSS INTERIOR AS
SEEN IN K-INDEX FIELDS. INSTABILITY IS IN QUESTION AS WE ARE NOT
CONFIDENT ON HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR...IF AT ALL. BUT
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF HIGH 0-6KM SHEAR /OVER 35KT/ AND GOOD LOW
LEVEL TURNING IN FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL ARE MAIN THREATS...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
WEAK TORNADO GIVEN HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...LOW LCL/S AND
PRESENCE OF CLOSED UPPER LOW. SYSTEM ALSO HAS HISTORY OF PRODUCING
A FEW WEAK TORNADOES THUS FAR AS WELL.

GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT OF HEATING...STAYED CLOSE TO MODEL
BLEND FOR HIGHS TODAY /70S TO AROUND 80/ WHICH ALSO MATCHES MIXING
TO 850 MB /10-11C/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH REGION TONIGHT BRINGING MUCH LESS HUMID
AIR BY DAYBREAK AS SKIES CLEAR. LIGHT WINDS WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE
MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG ACROSS INTERIOR.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TUE...RESULTING IN
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH OF AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGHS ONCE AGAIN
SHOULD TOP OFF IN 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT WITH LOW HUMIDITY. WEAK
GRADIENT SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG BOTH COASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY/QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WED THRU FRI
* POSSIBLY UNSETTLED AND MORE HUMID THIS WEEKEND

WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...

LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS PERIOD
HOWEVER THE MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP
THE DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OFFSHORE. THUS MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WED THRU FRI. HOWEVER GIVEN COOL TEMPS ALOFT
COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW CAN/T RULE OUT A LOW RISK OF A
FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS INLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN THE BELOW NORMAL 500 HEIGHTS EXPECT LATE
JULY/EARLY AUG SUN ANGLE TO PROVIDE MILD DAYS BUT DEW PTS IN THE 50S
WILL YIELD COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHTS.

THIS WEEKEND...

NORTHEAST TROUGH RETROGRADES TO THE MS VLY THIS WEEKEND. THIS OPENS
THE DOOR FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE OFFSHORE FRONT TO BACK INTO
NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MA AND RI. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ALONG WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS TODAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.

SCATTERED IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...OTHERWISE VFR DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA AND RI.

SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOW REDEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AFTER
18Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY TSTMS. BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS
WILL BE IN AREAS ALONG/WEST/NORTH OF I-495. THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE STORMS IN THIS AREA TO PRODUCE STRONG OR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR AFTER 00Z TUE...ALTHOUGH PATCHY
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG. VFR TUE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CIGS/VSBYS...FAIRLY CONFIDENT
ON IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 15Z. TS SHOULD REMAIN W OF AIRPORT
18Z-22Z.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIFR CIGS/VSBYS...FAIRLY
CONFIDENT IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z. TS MOST LIKELY 18Z-
22Z.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE THRU FRI
THEN LOWER CONFIDENCE INTO THIS WEEKEND.

VFR EXPECT A LOW RISK FOR PATCHY IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF
MHT AND ORH. BY SAT CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR COMING ONSHORE INTO EASTERN
MA AND RI ALONG WITH THREAT OF SHOWERS. MARGINAL VFR-MVFR LIKELY
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ROUGH SEAS ON
S COASTAL WATERS WHERE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO TUE.

S/SW FLOW PREVAILS TODAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS ON S
COASTAL WATERS...REACHING AS HIGH AS 5 OR 6 FT OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING
ON S COASTAL WATERS.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS WATERS THIS MORNING FROM LONG
ISLAND. SO FAR THESE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 35KT. POSSIBILITY OF A FEW MORE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ON E MA WATERS.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES WATERS TONIGHT BUT EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
PATCHY DENSE FOG...AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TUE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WED THRU FRI THEN SE WINDS POSSIBLY
INCREASING SAT PENDING STRENGTH AND TRACK OF FRONTAL WAVE MOVING NE
FROM THE MID ATLC. FAIR VSBY WED THRU FRI THEN POSSIBLY LOWERING SAT
IN SHOWERS AND FOG.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...BELK/NOCERA
MARINE...BELK/NOCERA



000
FXUS61 KBOX 281539
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1139 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY JULY STANDARDS WILL
MOVE ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK TODAY BEFORE HEADING INTO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. IT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINGING
DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER...AS THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER
THE MARITIMES AND NEW ENGLAND OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
*** FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ***

1135 AM UPDATE...
JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. SUNSHINE HAS
BROKEN THROUGH THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

ONCE THIS INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS LIFTS N BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS.

MODELS INSISTENT THAT DRY SLOT WILL WORK ITS WAY UP COAST INTO SE
NEW ENGLAND...AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD RESIDE ACROSS INTERIOR AS
SEEN IN K-INDEX FIELDS. INSTABILITY IS IN QUESTION AS WE ARE NOT
CONFIDENT ON HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR...IF AT ALL. BUT
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF HIGH 0-6KM SHEAR /OVER 35KT/ AND GOOD LOW
LEVEL TURNING IN FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL ARE MAIN THREATS...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
WEAK TORNADO GIVEN HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...LOW LCL/S AND
PRESENCE OF CLOSED UPPER LOW. SYSTEM ALSO HAS HISTORY OF PRODUCING
A FEW WEAK TORNADOES THUS FAR AS WELL.

GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT OF HEATING...STAYED CLOSE TO MODEL
BLEND FOR HIGHS TODAY /70S TO AROUND 80/ WHICH ALSO MATCHES MIXING
TO 850 MB /10-11C/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH REGION TONIGHT BRINGING MUCH LESS HUMID
AIR BY DAYBREAK AS SKIES CLEAR. LIGHT WINDS WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE
MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG ACROSS INTERIOR.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TUE...RESULTING IN
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH OF AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGHS ONCE AGAIN
SHOULD TOP OFF IN 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT WITH LOW HUMIDITY. WEAK
GRADIENT SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG BOTH COASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A MERIDIONAL TYPE FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEK. THE FOUR LOBES OF THIS FLOW ARE THE GULF OF ALASKA
TROUGH...WESTERN NORTH AMERICA RIDGE...EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
TROUGH...AND WEST ATLANTIC RIDGE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK COLD POOL IN EASTERN NO-AM
TROUGH...SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE DAILY INSTABILITY SHOWERS. ALSO
SHOWERS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE.  THE CORE OF THE EASTERN
NO-AM TROUGH EJECTS NORTH THROUGH QUEBEC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BUT A
WEAKER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MISS RIVER VALLEY OVER
THE WEEKEND.

THE SIMILARITY IN MODEL FIELDS FAVORS A BLEND OF AVAILABLE DATA.

THE DAILIES...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST
AND UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST...EXPECT THE DEPARTED COLD FRONT TO
ALIGN WITH THE UPPER FLOW AND STALL. UPPER FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND
WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MEANWHILE COLD POOL INSTABILITY
UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER NY AND ONTARIO WHILE NEW
ENGLAND IS UNDER THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET...A
SUBSIDENT ZONE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. FOR THE MOST PART THIS LOOKS LIKE A DRY WEATHER PERIOD
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...TRENDING TO THE LOWER 60S FRIDAY.

THIS WILL MEAN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WELL OFFSHORE AND OVER
NY/ONTARIO. MAIN CONCERN FOR PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WOULD BE IF SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM THE UPPER TROUGH
WHICH COULD SLIDE ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES INTO THE CT VALLEY.  SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL
FAVOR SUBSIDENCE AND DRY WEATHER.  WE WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN THE BERKS WEDNESDAY AND WEST OF MHT-ORH-IJD THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AND
CHANCE POPS ALONG/WEST OF THE CT VALLEY THURSDAY-FRIDAY. PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS
NORTH...EXPECT THE ATLANTIC HIGH TO SHIFT A LITTLE TO THE WEST.
THIS WOULD PUSH THE OFFSHORE FRONT WEST CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
BRING AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS TODAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.

SCATTERED IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...OTHERWISE VFR DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA AND RI.

SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOW REDEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AFTER
18Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY TSTMS. BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS
WILL BE IN AREAS ALONG/WEST/NORTH OF I-495. THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE STORMS IN THIS AREA TO PRODUCE STRONG OR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR AFTER 00Z TUE...ALTHOUGH PATCHY
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG. VFR TUE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CIGS/VSBYS...FAIRLY CONFIDENT
ON IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 15Z. TS SHOULD REMAIN W OF AIRPORT
18Z-22Z.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIFR CIGS/VSBYS...FAIRLY
CONFIDENT IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z. TS MOST LIKELY 18Z-
22Z.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. AREAS OF IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY.  MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF MHT AND ORH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ROUGH SEAS ON
S COASTAL WATERS WHERE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO TUE.

S/SW FLOW PREVAILS TODAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS ON S
COASTAL WATERS...REACHING AS HIGH AS 5 OR 6 FT OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING
ON S COASTAL WATERS.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS WATERS THIS MORNING FROM LONG
ISLAND. SO FAR THESE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 35KT. POSSIBILITY OF A FEW MORE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ON E MA WATERS.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES WATERS TONIGHT BUT EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
PATCHY DENSE FOG...AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TUE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT MAY
APPROACH 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...SOUTHWEST MIDWEEK SHIFTING TO
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/JWD
NEAR TERM...WTB/BELK/JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/JWD
MARINE...WTB/JWD



000
FXUS61 KBOX 281539
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1139 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY JULY STANDARDS WILL
MOVE ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK TODAY BEFORE HEADING INTO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. IT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINGING
DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER...AS THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER
THE MARITIMES AND NEW ENGLAND OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
*** FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ***

1135 AM UPDATE...
JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. SUNSHINE HAS
BROKEN THROUGH THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

ONCE THIS INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS LIFTS N BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS.

MODELS INSISTENT THAT DRY SLOT WILL WORK ITS WAY UP COAST INTO SE
NEW ENGLAND...AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD RESIDE ACROSS INTERIOR AS
SEEN IN K-INDEX FIELDS. INSTABILITY IS IN QUESTION AS WE ARE NOT
CONFIDENT ON HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR...IF AT ALL. BUT
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF HIGH 0-6KM SHEAR /OVER 35KT/ AND GOOD LOW
LEVEL TURNING IN FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL ARE MAIN THREATS...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
WEAK TORNADO GIVEN HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...LOW LCL/S AND
PRESENCE OF CLOSED UPPER LOW. SYSTEM ALSO HAS HISTORY OF PRODUCING
A FEW WEAK TORNADOES THUS FAR AS WELL.

GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT OF HEATING...STAYED CLOSE TO MODEL
BLEND FOR HIGHS TODAY /70S TO AROUND 80/ WHICH ALSO MATCHES MIXING
TO 850 MB /10-11C/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH REGION TONIGHT BRINGING MUCH LESS HUMID
AIR BY DAYBREAK AS SKIES CLEAR. LIGHT WINDS WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE
MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG ACROSS INTERIOR.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TUE...RESULTING IN
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH OF AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGHS ONCE AGAIN
SHOULD TOP OFF IN 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT WITH LOW HUMIDITY. WEAK
GRADIENT SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG BOTH COASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A MERIDIONAL TYPE FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEK. THE FOUR LOBES OF THIS FLOW ARE THE GULF OF ALASKA
TROUGH...WESTERN NORTH AMERICA RIDGE...EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
TROUGH...AND WEST ATLANTIC RIDGE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK COLD POOL IN EASTERN NO-AM
TROUGH...SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE DAILY INSTABILITY SHOWERS. ALSO
SHOWERS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE.  THE CORE OF THE EASTERN
NO-AM TROUGH EJECTS NORTH THROUGH QUEBEC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BUT A
WEAKER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MISS RIVER VALLEY OVER
THE WEEKEND.

THE SIMILARITY IN MODEL FIELDS FAVORS A BLEND OF AVAILABLE DATA.

THE DAILIES...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST
AND UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST...EXPECT THE DEPARTED COLD FRONT TO
ALIGN WITH THE UPPER FLOW AND STALL. UPPER FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND
WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MEANWHILE COLD POOL INSTABILITY
UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER NY AND ONTARIO WHILE NEW
ENGLAND IS UNDER THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET...A
SUBSIDENT ZONE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. FOR THE MOST PART THIS LOOKS LIKE A DRY WEATHER PERIOD
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...TRENDING TO THE LOWER 60S FRIDAY.

THIS WILL MEAN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WELL OFFSHORE AND OVER
NY/ONTARIO. MAIN CONCERN FOR PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WOULD BE IF SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM THE UPPER TROUGH
WHICH COULD SLIDE ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES INTO THE CT VALLEY.  SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL
FAVOR SUBSIDENCE AND DRY WEATHER.  WE WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN THE BERKS WEDNESDAY AND WEST OF MHT-ORH-IJD THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AND
CHANCE POPS ALONG/WEST OF THE CT VALLEY THURSDAY-FRIDAY. PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS
NORTH...EXPECT THE ATLANTIC HIGH TO SHIFT A LITTLE TO THE WEST.
THIS WOULD PUSH THE OFFSHORE FRONT WEST CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
BRING AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS TODAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.

SCATTERED IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...OTHERWISE VFR DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA AND RI.

SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOW REDEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AFTER
18Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY TSTMS. BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS
WILL BE IN AREAS ALONG/WEST/NORTH OF I-495. THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE STORMS IN THIS AREA TO PRODUCE STRONG OR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR AFTER 00Z TUE...ALTHOUGH PATCHY
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG. VFR TUE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CIGS/VSBYS...FAIRLY CONFIDENT
ON IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 15Z. TS SHOULD REMAIN W OF AIRPORT
18Z-22Z.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIFR CIGS/VSBYS...FAIRLY
CONFIDENT IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z. TS MOST LIKELY 18Z-
22Z.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. AREAS OF IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY.  MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF MHT AND ORH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ROUGH SEAS ON
S COASTAL WATERS WHERE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO TUE.

S/SW FLOW PREVAILS TODAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS ON S
COASTAL WATERS...REACHING AS HIGH AS 5 OR 6 FT OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING
ON S COASTAL WATERS.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS WATERS THIS MORNING FROM LONG
ISLAND. SO FAR THESE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 35KT. POSSIBILITY OF A FEW MORE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ON E MA WATERS.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES WATERS TONIGHT BUT EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
PATCHY DENSE FOG...AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TUE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT MAY
APPROACH 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...SOUTHWEST MIDWEEK SHIFTING TO
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/JWD
NEAR TERM...WTB/BELK/JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/JWD
MARINE...WTB/JWD



000
FXUS61 KBOX 281539
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1139 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY JULY STANDARDS WILL
MOVE ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK TODAY BEFORE HEADING INTO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. IT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINGING
DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER...AS THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER
THE MARITIMES AND NEW ENGLAND OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
*** FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ***

1135 AM UPDATE...
JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. SUNSHINE HAS
BROKEN THROUGH THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

ONCE THIS INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS LIFTS N BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS.

MODELS INSISTENT THAT DRY SLOT WILL WORK ITS WAY UP COAST INTO SE
NEW ENGLAND...AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD RESIDE ACROSS INTERIOR AS
SEEN IN K-INDEX FIELDS. INSTABILITY IS IN QUESTION AS WE ARE NOT
CONFIDENT ON HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR...IF AT ALL. BUT
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF HIGH 0-6KM SHEAR /OVER 35KT/ AND GOOD LOW
LEVEL TURNING IN FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL ARE MAIN THREATS...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
WEAK TORNADO GIVEN HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...LOW LCL/S AND
PRESENCE OF CLOSED UPPER LOW. SYSTEM ALSO HAS HISTORY OF PRODUCING
A FEW WEAK TORNADOES THUS FAR AS WELL.

GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT OF HEATING...STAYED CLOSE TO MODEL
BLEND FOR HIGHS TODAY /70S TO AROUND 80/ WHICH ALSO MATCHES MIXING
TO 850 MB /10-11C/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH REGION TONIGHT BRINGING MUCH LESS HUMID
AIR BY DAYBREAK AS SKIES CLEAR. LIGHT WINDS WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE
MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG ACROSS INTERIOR.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TUE...RESULTING IN
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH OF AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGHS ONCE AGAIN
SHOULD TOP OFF IN 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT WITH LOW HUMIDITY. WEAK
GRADIENT SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG BOTH COASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A MERIDIONAL TYPE FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEK. THE FOUR LOBES OF THIS FLOW ARE THE GULF OF ALASKA
TROUGH...WESTERN NORTH AMERICA RIDGE...EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
TROUGH...AND WEST ATLANTIC RIDGE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK COLD POOL IN EASTERN NO-AM
TROUGH...SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE DAILY INSTABILITY SHOWERS. ALSO
SHOWERS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE.  THE CORE OF THE EASTERN
NO-AM TROUGH EJECTS NORTH THROUGH QUEBEC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BUT A
WEAKER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MISS RIVER VALLEY OVER
THE WEEKEND.

THE SIMILARITY IN MODEL FIELDS FAVORS A BLEND OF AVAILABLE DATA.

THE DAILIES...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST
AND UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST...EXPECT THE DEPARTED COLD FRONT TO
ALIGN WITH THE UPPER FLOW AND STALL. UPPER FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND
WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MEANWHILE COLD POOL INSTABILITY
UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER NY AND ONTARIO WHILE NEW
ENGLAND IS UNDER THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET...A
SUBSIDENT ZONE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. FOR THE MOST PART THIS LOOKS LIKE A DRY WEATHER PERIOD
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...TRENDING TO THE LOWER 60S FRIDAY.

THIS WILL MEAN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WELL OFFSHORE AND OVER
NY/ONTARIO. MAIN CONCERN FOR PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WOULD BE IF SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM THE UPPER TROUGH
WHICH COULD SLIDE ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES INTO THE CT VALLEY.  SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL
FAVOR SUBSIDENCE AND DRY WEATHER.  WE WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN THE BERKS WEDNESDAY AND WEST OF MHT-ORH-IJD THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AND
CHANCE POPS ALONG/WEST OF THE CT VALLEY THURSDAY-FRIDAY. PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS
NORTH...EXPECT THE ATLANTIC HIGH TO SHIFT A LITTLE TO THE WEST.
THIS WOULD PUSH THE OFFSHORE FRONT WEST CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
BRING AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS TODAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.

SCATTERED IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...OTHERWISE VFR DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA AND RI.

SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOW REDEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AFTER
18Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY TSTMS. BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS
WILL BE IN AREAS ALONG/WEST/NORTH OF I-495. THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE STORMS IN THIS AREA TO PRODUCE STRONG OR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR AFTER 00Z TUE...ALTHOUGH PATCHY
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG. VFR TUE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CIGS/VSBYS...FAIRLY CONFIDENT
ON IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 15Z. TS SHOULD REMAIN W OF AIRPORT
18Z-22Z.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIFR CIGS/VSBYS...FAIRLY
CONFIDENT IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z. TS MOST LIKELY 18Z-
22Z.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. AREAS OF IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY.  MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF MHT AND ORH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ROUGH SEAS ON
S COASTAL WATERS WHERE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO TUE.

S/SW FLOW PREVAILS TODAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS ON S
COASTAL WATERS...REACHING AS HIGH AS 5 OR 6 FT OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING
ON S COASTAL WATERS.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS WATERS THIS MORNING FROM LONG
ISLAND. SO FAR THESE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 35KT. POSSIBILITY OF A FEW MORE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ON E MA WATERS.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES WATERS TONIGHT BUT EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
PATCHY DENSE FOG...AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TUE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT MAY
APPROACH 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...SOUTHWEST MIDWEEK SHIFTING TO
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/JWD
NEAR TERM...WTB/BELK/JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/JWD
MARINE...WTB/JWD



000
FXUS61 KBOX 281539
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1139 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY JULY STANDARDS WILL
MOVE ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK TODAY BEFORE HEADING INTO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. IT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINGING
DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER...AS THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER
THE MARITIMES AND NEW ENGLAND OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
*** FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ***

1135 AM UPDATE...
JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. SUNSHINE HAS
BROKEN THROUGH THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

ONCE THIS INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS LIFTS N BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS.

MODELS INSISTENT THAT DRY SLOT WILL WORK ITS WAY UP COAST INTO SE
NEW ENGLAND...AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD RESIDE ACROSS INTERIOR AS
SEEN IN K-INDEX FIELDS. INSTABILITY IS IN QUESTION AS WE ARE NOT
CONFIDENT ON HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR...IF AT ALL. BUT
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF HIGH 0-6KM SHEAR /OVER 35KT/ AND GOOD LOW
LEVEL TURNING IN FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL ARE MAIN THREATS...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
WEAK TORNADO GIVEN HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...LOW LCL/S AND
PRESENCE OF CLOSED UPPER LOW. SYSTEM ALSO HAS HISTORY OF PRODUCING
A FEW WEAK TORNADOES THUS FAR AS WELL.

GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT OF HEATING...STAYED CLOSE TO MODEL
BLEND FOR HIGHS TODAY /70S TO AROUND 80/ WHICH ALSO MATCHES MIXING
TO 850 MB /10-11C/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH REGION TONIGHT BRINGING MUCH LESS HUMID
AIR BY DAYBREAK AS SKIES CLEAR. LIGHT WINDS WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE
MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG ACROSS INTERIOR.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TUE...RESULTING IN
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH OF AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGHS ONCE AGAIN
SHOULD TOP OFF IN 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT WITH LOW HUMIDITY. WEAK
GRADIENT SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG BOTH COASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A MERIDIONAL TYPE FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEK. THE FOUR LOBES OF THIS FLOW ARE THE GULF OF ALASKA
TROUGH...WESTERN NORTH AMERICA RIDGE...EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
TROUGH...AND WEST ATLANTIC RIDGE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK COLD POOL IN EASTERN NO-AM
TROUGH...SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE DAILY INSTABILITY SHOWERS. ALSO
SHOWERS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE.  THE CORE OF THE EASTERN
NO-AM TROUGH EJECTS NORTH THROUGH QUEBEC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BUT A
WEAKER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MISS RIVER VALLEY OVER
THE WEEKEND.

THE SIMILARITY IN MODEL FIELDS FAVORS A BLEND OF AVAILABLE DATA.

THE DAILIES...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST
AND UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST...EXPECT THE DEPARTED COLD FRONT TO
ALIGN WITH THE UPPER FLOW AND STALL. UPPER FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND
WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MEANWHILE COLD POOL INSTABILITY
UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER NY AND ONTARIO WHILE NEW
ENGLAND IS UNDER THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET...A
SUBSIDENT ZONE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. FOR THE MOST PART THIS LOOKS LIKE A DRY WEATHER PERIOD
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...TRENDING TO THE LOWER 60S FRIDAY.

THIS WILL MEAN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WELL OFFSHORE AND OVER
NY/ONTARIO. MAIN CONCERN FOR PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WOULD BE IF SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM THE UPPER TROUGH
WHICH COULD SLIDE ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES INTO THE CT VALLEY.  SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL
FAVOR SUBSIDENCE AND DRY WEATHER.  WE WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN THE BERKS WEDNESDAY AND WEST OF MHT-ORH-IJD THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AND
CHANCE POPS ALONG/WEST OF THE CT VALLEY THURSDAY-FRIDAY. PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS
NORTH...EXPECT THE ATLANTIC HIGH TO SHIFT A LITTLE TO THE WEST.
THIS WOULD PUSH THE OFFSHORE FRONT WEST CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
BRING AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS TODAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.

SCATTERED IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...OTHERWISE VFR DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA AND RI.

SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOW REDEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AFTER
18Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY TSTMS. BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS
WILL BE IN AREAS ALONG/WEST/NORTH OF I-495. THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE STORMS IN THIS AREA TO PRODUCE STRONG OR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR AFTER 00Z TUE...ALTHOUGH PATCHY
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG. VFR TUE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CIGS/VSBYS...FAIRLY CONFIDENT
ON IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 15Z. TS SHOULD REMAIN W OF AIRPORT
18Z-22Z.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIFR CIGS/VSBYS...FAIRLY
CONFIDENT IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z. TS MOST LIKELY 18Z-
22Z.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. AREAS OF IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY.  MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF MHT AND ORH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ROUGH SEAS ON
S COASTAL WATERS WHERE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO TUE.

S/SW FLOW PREVAILS TODAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS ON S
COASTAL WATERS...REACHING AS HIGH AS 5 OR 6 FT OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING
ON S COASTAL WATERS.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS WATERS THIS MORNING FROM LONG
ISLAND. SO FAR THESE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 35KT. POSSIBILITY OF A FEW MORE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ON E MA WATERS.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES WATERS TONIGHT BUT EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
PATCHY DENSE FOG...AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TUE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT MAY
APPROACH 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...SOUTHWEST MIDWEEK SHIFTING TO
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/JWD
NEAR TERM...WTB/BELK/JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/JWD
MARINE...WTB/JWD



000
FXUS61 KBOX 281050
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
650 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY JULY STANDARDS WILL
MOVE ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK TODAY BEFORE HEADING INTO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. IT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINGING
DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER...AS THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER
THE MARITIMES AND NEW ENGLAND OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
*** HEAVY RAINFALL/STORMS THIS MORNING ***
*** FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ***

7 AM UPDATE...
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS FROM WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY INTO NYC AND
NJ IS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AS
UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIFT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THIS MORNING...BEFORE SHIFTING FARTHER N THIS
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THIS MAY END UP AFFECTING LOCATIONS NEAR S
COAST AS OPPOSED TO INTERIOR PER RADAR TRENDS.

MAIN THREAT THIS MORNING IS LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY
RAINFALL...IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT
STRONG WIND GUSTS GIVEN ENVIRONMENT OF RATHER HIGH 0-6KM SHEAR AND
DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THOUGH GIVEN TIME OF DAY CONFIDENCE
IS LOW THAT STRONG WINDS WILL BE REALIZED.

ONCE THIS INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS LIFTS N BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS.

MODELS INSISTENT THAT DRY SLOT WILL WORK ITS WAY UP COAST INTO SE
NEW ENGLAND...AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD RESIDE ACROSS INTERIOR AS
SEEN IN K-INDEX FIELDS. INSTABILITY IS IN QUESTION AS WE ARE NOT
CONFIDENT ON HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR...IF AT ALL. BUT
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF HIGH 0-6KM SHEAR /OVER 35KT/ AND GOOD LOW
LEVEL TURNING IN FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL ARE MAIN THREATS...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
WEAK TORNADO GIVEN HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...LOW LCL/S AND
PRESENCE OF CLOSED UPPER LOW. SYSTEM ALSO HAS HISTORY OF PRODUCING
A FEW WEAK TORNADOES THUS FAR AS WELL.

GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT OF HEATING...STAYED CLOSE TO MODEL
BLEND FOR HIGHS TODAY /70S TO AROUND 80/ WHICH ALSO MATCHES MIXING
TO 850 MB /10-11C/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH REGION TONIGHT BRINGING MUCH LESS HUMID
AIR BY DAYBREAK AS SKIES CLEAR. LIGHT WINDS WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE
MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG ACROSS INTERIOR.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TUE...RESULTING IN
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH OF AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGHS ONCE AGAIN
SHOULD TOP OFF IN 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT WITH LOW HUMIDITY. WEAK
GRADIENT SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG BOTH COASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A MERIDIONAL TYPE FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEK. THE FOUR LOBES OF THIS FLOW ARE THE GULF OF ALASKA
TROUGH...WESTERN NORTH AMERICA RIDGE...EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
TROUGH...AND WEST ATLANTIC RIDGE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK COLD POOL IN EASTERN NO-AM
TROUGH...SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE DAILY INSTABILITY SHOWERS. ALSO
SHOWERS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE.  THE CORE OF THE EASTERN
NO-AM TROUGH EJECTS NORTH THROUGH QUEBEC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BUT A
WEAKER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MISS RIVER VALLEY OVER
THE WEEKEND.

THE SIMILARITY IN MODEL FIELDS FAVORS A BLEND OF AVAILABLE DATA.

THE DAILIES...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST
AND UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST...EXPECT THE DEPARTED COLD FRONT TO
ALIGN WITH THE UPPER FLOW AND STALL.  UPPER FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND
WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MEANWHILE COLD POOL INSTABILITY
UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER NY AND ONTARIO WHILE NEW ENGLAND
IS UNDER THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET...A SUBSIDENT
ZONE.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
FOR THE MOST PART THIS LOOKS LIKE A DRY WEATHER PERIOD WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...TRENDING TO THE LOWER 60S FRIDAY.

THIS WILL MEAN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WELL OFFSHORE AND OVER
NY/ONTARIO. MAIN CONCERN FOR PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WOULD BE IF SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM THE UPPER TROUGH
WHICH COULD SLIDE ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES INTO THE CT VALLEY.  SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL
FAVOR SUBSIDENCE AND DRY WEATHER.  WE WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN THE BERKS WEDNESDAY AND WEST OF MHT-ORH-IJD THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AND
CHANCE POPS ALONG/WEST OF THE CT VALLEY THURSDAY-FRIDAY. PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY... AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS
NORTH...EXPECT THE ATLANTIC HIGH TO SHIFT A LITTLE TO THE WEST. THIS
WOULD PUSH THE OFFSHORE FRONT WEST CLOSER TO THE COAST AND BRING AN
INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ON THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS TODAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.

IFR/LIFR IN SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS MORNING. ALSO LIFR IN FOG AREAS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND CENTRAL HILLS. EXPECT THESE INITIAL
TSTMS TO MOVE NORTH OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDDAY. FOG ALONG THE SOUTH COAST MAY BE
SLOWER TO IMPROVE IN THE HUMID AIRMASS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOW REDEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AFTER
18Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY TSTMS. BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS
WILL BE IN AREAS ALONG/WEST/NORTH OF I-495. THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME OF THE STORMS IN THIS AREA TO PRODUCE STRONG OR DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR AFTER 00Z TUE...ALTHOUGH PATCHY
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG. VFR TUE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CIGS/VSBYS...FAIRLY CONFIDENT
ON IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 15Z. TS SHOULD REMAIN W OF AIRPORT
18Z-22Z.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIFR CIGS/VSBYS...FAIRLY
CONFIDENT IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z. TS MOST LIKELY 18Z-
22Z.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. AREAS OF IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY.  MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF MHT AND ORH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ROUGH SEAS ON
S COASTAL WATERS WHERE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO TUE.

S/SW FLOW PREVAILS TODAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS ON S
COASTAL WATERS...REACHING AS HIGH AS 5 OR 6 FT OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING
ON S COASTAL WATERS.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS WATERS THIS MORNING FROM LONG
ISLAND. SO FAR THESE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 35KT. POSSIBILITY OF A FEW MORE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ON E MA WATERS.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES WATERS TONIGHT BUT EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
PATCHY DENSE FOG...AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TUE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT MAY
APPROACH 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...SOUTHWEST MIDWEEK SHIFTING TO
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/JWD
NEAR TERM...WTB/JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/JWD
MARINE...WTB/JWD




000
FXUS61 KBOX 281050
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
650 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY JULY STANDARDS WILL
MOVE ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK TODAY BEFORE HEADING INTO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. IT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINGING
DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER...AS THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER
THE MARITIMES AND NEW ENGLAND OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
*** HEAVY RAINFALL/STORMS THIS MORNING ***
*** FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ***

7 AM UPDATE...
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS FROM WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY INTO NYC AND
NJ IS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AS
UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIFT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THIS MORNING...BEFORE SHIFTING FARTHER N THIS
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THIS MAY END UP AFFECTING LOCATIONS NEAR S
COAST AS OPPOSED TO INTERIOR PER RADAR TRENDS.

MAIN THREAT THIS MORNING IS LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY
RAINFALL...IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT
STRONG WIND GUSTS GIVEN ENVIRONMENT OF RATHER HIGH 0-6KM SHEAR AND
DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THOUGH GIVEN TIME OF DAY CONFIDENCE
IS LOW THAT STRONG WINDS WILL BE REALIZED.

ONCE THIS INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS LIFTS N BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS.

MODELS INSISTENT THAT DRY SLOT WILL WORK ITS WAY UP COAST INTO SE
NEW ENGLAND...AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD RESIDE ACROSS INTERIOR AS
SEEN IN K-INDEX FIELDS. INSTABILITY IS IN QUESTION AS WE ARE NOT
CONFIDENT ON HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR...IF AT ALL. BUT
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF HIGH 0-6KM SHEAR /OVER 35KT/ AND GOOD LOW
LEVEL TURNING IN FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL ARE MAIN THREATS...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
WEAK TORNADO GIVEN HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...LOW LCL/S AND
PRESENCE OF CLOSED UPPER LOW. SYSTEM ALSO HAS HISTORY OF PRODUCING
A FEW WEAK TORNADOES THUS FAR AS WELL.

GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT OF HEATING...STAYED CLOSE TO MODEL
BLEND FOR HIGHS TODAY /70S TO AROUND 80/ WHICH ALSO MATCHES MIXING
TO 850 MB /10-11C/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH REGION TONIGHT BRINGING MUCH LESS HUMID
AIR BY DAYBREAK AS SKIES CLEAR. LIGHT WINDS WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE
MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG ACROSS INTERIOR.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TUE...RESULTING IN
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH OF AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGHS ONCE AGAIN
SHOULD TOP OFF IN 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT WITH LOW HUMIDITY. WEAK
GRADIENT SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG BOTH COASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A MERIDIONAL TYPE FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEK. THE FOUR LOBES OF THIS FLOW ARE THE GULF OF ALASKA
TROUGH...WESTERN NORTH AMERICA RIDGE...EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
TROUGH...AND WEST ATLANTIC RIDGE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK COLD POOL IN EASTERN NO-AM
TROUGH...SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE DAILY INSTABILITY SHOWERS. ALSO
SHOWERS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE.  THE CORE OF THE EASTERN
NO-AM TROUGH EJECTS NORTH THROUGH QUEBEC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BUT A
WEAKER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MISS RIVER VALLEY OVER
THE WEEKEND.

THE SIMILARITY IN MODEL FIELDS FAVORS A BLEND OF AVAILABLE DATA.

THE DAILIES...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST
AND UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST...EXPECT THE DEPARTED COLD FRONT TO
ALIGN WITH THE UPPER FLOW AND STALL.  UPPER FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND
WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MEANWHILE COLD POOL INSTABILITY
UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER NY AND ONTARIO WHILE NEW ENGLAND
IS UNDER THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET...A SUBSIDENT
ZONE.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
FOR THE MOST PART THIS LOOKS LIKE A DRY WEATHER PERIOD WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...TRENDING TO THE LOWER 60S FRIDAY.

THIS WILL MEAN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WELL OFFSHORE AND OVER
NY/ONTARIO. MAIN CONCERN FOR PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WOULD BE IF SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM THE UPPER TROUGH
WHICH COULD SLIDE ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES INTO THE CT VALLEY.  SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL
FAVOR SUBSIDENCE AND DRY WEATHER.  WE WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN THE BERKS WEDNESDAY AND WEST OF MHT-ORH-IJD THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AND
CHANCE POPS ALONG/WEST OF THE CT VALLEY THURSDAY-FRIDAY. PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY... AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS
NORTH...EXPECT THE ATLANTIC HIGH TO SHIFT A LITTLE TO THE WEST. THIS
WOULD PUSH THE OFFSHORE FRONT WEST CLOSER TO THE COAST AND BRING AN
INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ON THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS TODAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.

IFR/LIFR IN SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS MORNING. ALSO LIFR IN FOG AREAS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND CENTRAL HILLS. EXPECT THESE INITIAL
TSTMS TO MOVE NORTH OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDDAY. FOG ALONG THE SOUTH COAST MAY BE
SLOWER TO IMPROVE IN THE HUMID AIRMASS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOW REDEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AFTER
18Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY TSTMS. BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS
WILL BE IN AREAS ALONG/WEST/NORTH OF I-495. THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME OF THE STORMS IN THIS AREA TO PRODUCE STRONG OR DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR AFTER 00Z TUE...ALTHOUGH PATCHY
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG. VFR TUE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CIGS/VSBYS...FAIRLY CONFIDENT
ON IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 15Z. TS SHOULD REMAIN W OF AIRPORT
18Z-22Z.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIFR CIGS/VSBYS...FAIRLY
CONFIDENT IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z. TS MOST LIKELY 18Z-
22Z.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. AREAS OF IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY.  MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF MHT AND ORH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ROUGH SEAS ON
S COASTAL WATERS WHERE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO TUE.

S/SW FLOW PREVAILS TODAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS ON S
COASTAL WATERS...REACHING AS HIGH AS 5 OR 6 FT OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING
ON S COASTAL WATERS.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS WATERS THIS MORNING FROM LONG
ISLAND. SO FAR THESE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 35KT. POSSIBILITY OF A FEW MORE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ON E MA WATERS.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES WATERS TONIGHT BUT EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
PATCHY DENSE FOG...AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TUE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT MAY
APPROACH 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...SOUTHWEST MIDWEEK SHIFTING TO
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/JWD
NEAR TERM...WTB/JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/JWD
MARINE...WTB/JWD




000
FXUS61 KBOX 281050
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
650 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY JULY STANDARDS WILL
MOVE ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK TODAY BEFORE HEADING INTO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. IT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINGING
DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER...AS THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER
THE MARITIMES AND NEW ENGLAND OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
*** HEAVY RAINFALL/STORMS THIS MORNING ***
*** FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ***

7 AM UPDATE...
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS FROM WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY INTO NYC AND
NJ IS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AS
UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIFT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THIS MORNING...BEFORE SHIFTING FARTHER N THIS
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THIS MAY END UP AFFECTING LOCATIONS NEAR S
COAST AS OPPOSED TO INTERIOR PER RADAR TRENDS.

MAIN THREAT THIS MORNING IS LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY
RAINFALL...IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT
STRONG WIND GUSTS GIVEN ENVIRONMENT OF RATHER HIGH 0-6KM SHEAR AND
DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THOUGH GIVEN TIME OF DAY CONFIDENCE
IS LOW THAT STRONG WINDS WILL BE REALIZED.

ONCE THIS INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS LIFTS N BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS.

MODELS INSISTENT THAT DRY SLOT WILL WORK ITS WAY UP COAST INTO SE
NEW ENGLAND...AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD RESIDE ACROSS INTERIOR AS
SEEN IN K-INDEX FIELDS. INSTABILITY IS IN QUESTION AS WE ARE NOT
CONFIDENT ON HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR...IF AT ALL. BUT
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF HIGH 0-6KM SHEAR /OVER 35KT/ AND GOOD LOW
LEVEL TURNING IN FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL ARE MAIN THREATS...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
WEAK TORNADO GIVEN HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...LOW LCL/S AND
PRESENCE OF CLOSED UPPER LOW. SYSTEM ALSO HAS HISTORY OF PRODUCING
A FEW WEAK TORNADOES THUS FAR AS WELL.

GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT OF HEATING...STAYED CLOSE TO MODEL
BLEND FOR HIGHS TODAY /70S TO AROUND 80/ WHICH ALSO MATCHES MIXING
TO 850 MB /10-11C/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH REGION TONIGHT BRINGING MUCH LESS HUMID
AIR BY DAYBREAK AS SKIES CLEAR. LIGHT WINDS WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE
MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG ACROSS INTERIOR.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TUE...RESULTING IN
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH OF AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGHS ONCE AGAIN
SHOULD TOP OFF IN 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT WITH LOW HUMIDITY. WEAK
GRADIENT SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG BOTH COASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A MERIDIONAL TYPE FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEK. THE FOUR LOBES OF THIS FLOW ARE THE GULF OF ALASKA
TROUGH...WESTERN NORTH AMERICA RIDGE...EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
TROUGH...AND WEST ATLANTIC RIDGE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK COLD POOL IN EASTERN NO-AM
TROUGH...SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE DAILY INSTABILITY SHOWERS. ALSO
SHOWERS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE.  THE CORE OF THE EASTERN
NO-AM TROUGH EJECTS NORTH THROUGH QUEBEC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BUT A
WEAKER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MISS RIVER VALLEY OVER
THE WEEKEND.

THE SIMILARITY IN MODEL FIELDS FAVORS A BLEND OF AVAILABLE DATA.

THE DAILIES...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST
AND UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST...EXPECT THE DEPARTED COLD FRONT TO
ALIGN WITH THE UPPER FLOW AND STALL.  UPPER FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND
WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MEANWHILE COLD POOL INSTABILITY
UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER NY AND ONTARIO WHILE NEW ENGLAND
IS UNDER THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET...A SUBSIDENT
ZONE.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
FOR THE MOST PART THIS LOOKS LIKE A DRY WEATHER PERIOD WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...TRENDING TO THE LOWER 60S FRIDAY.

THIS WILL MEAN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WELL OFFSHORE AND OVER
NY/ONTARIO. MAIN CONCERN FOR PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WOULD BE IF SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM THE UPPER TROUGH
WHICH COULD SLIDE ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES INTO THE CT VALLEY.  SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL
FAVOR SUBSIDENCE AND DRY WEATHER.  WE WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN THE BERKS WEDNESDAY AND WEST OF MHT-ORH-IJD THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AND
CHANCE POPS ALONG/WEST OF THE CT VALLEY THURSDAY-FRIDAY. PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY... AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS
NORTH...EXPECT THE ATLANTIC HIGH TO SHIFT A LITTLE TO THE WEST. THIS
WOULD PUSH THE OFFSHORE FRONT WEST CLOSER TO THE COAST AND BRING AN
INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ON THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS TODAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.

IFR/LIFR IN SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS MORNING. ALSO LIFR IN FOG AREAS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND CENTRAL HILLS. EXPECT THESE INITIAL
TSTMS TO MOVE NORTH OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDDAY. FOG ALONG THE SOUTH COAST MAY BE
SLOWER TO IMPROVE IN THE HUMID AIRMASS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOW REDEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AFTER
18Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY TSTMS. BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS
WILL BE IN AREAS ALONG/WEST/NORTH OF I-495. THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME OF THE STORMS IN THIS AREA TO PRODUCE STRONG OR DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR AFTER 00Z TUE...ALTHOUGH PATCHY
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG. VFR TUE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CIGS/VSBYS...FAIRLY CONFIDENT
ON IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 15Z. TS SHOULD REMAIN W OF AIRPORT
18Z-22Z.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIFR CIGS/VSBYS...FAIRLY
CONFIDENT IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z. TS MOST LIKELY 18Z-
22Z.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. AREAS OF IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY.  MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF MHT AND ORH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ROUGH SEAS ON
S COASTAL WATERS WHERE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO TUE.

S/SW FLOW PREVAILS TODAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS ON S
COASTAL WATERS...REACHING AS HIGH AS 5 OR 6 FT OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING
ON S COASTAL WATERS.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS WATERS THIS MORNING FROM LONG
ISLAND. SO FAR THESE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 35KT. POSSIBILITY OF A FEW MORE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ON E MA WATERS.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES WATERS TONIGHT BUT EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
PATCHY DENSE FOG...AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TUE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT MAY
APPROACH 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...SOUTHWEST MIDWEEK SHIFTING TO
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/JWD
NEAR TERM...WTB/JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/JWD
MARINE...WTB/JWD




000
FXUS61 KBOX 281050
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
650 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY JULY STANDARDS WILL
MOVE ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK TODAY BEFORE HEADING INTO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. IT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINGING
DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER...AS THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER
THE MARITIMES AND NEW ENGLAND OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
*** HEAVY RAINFALL/STORMS THIS MORNING ***
*** FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ***

7 AM UPDATE...
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS FROM WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY INTO NYC AND
NJ IS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AS
UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIFT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THIS MORNING...BEFORE SHIFTING FARTHER N THIS
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THIS MAY END UP AFFECTING LOCATIONS NEAR S
COAST AS OPPOSED TO INTERIOR PER RADAR TRENDS.

MAIN THREAT THIS MORNING IS LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY
RAINFALL...IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT
STRONG WIND GUSTS GIVEN ENVIRONMENT OF RATHER HIGH 0-6KM SHEAR AND
DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THOUGH GIVEN TIME OF DAY CONFIDENCE
IS LOW THAT STRONG WINDS WILL BE REALIZED.

ONCE THIS INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS LIFTS N BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS.

MODELS INSISTENT THAT DRY SLOT WILL WORK ITS WAY UP COAST INTO SE
NEW ENGLAND...AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD RESIDE ACROSS INTERIOR AS
SEEN IN K-INDEX FIELDS. INSTABILITY IS IN QUESTION AS WE ARE NOT
CONFIDENT ON HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR...IF AT ALL. BUT
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF HIGH 0-6KM SHEAR /OVER 35KT/ AND GOOD LOW
LEVEL TURNING IN FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL ARE MAIN THREATS...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
WEAK TORNADO GIVEN HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...LOW LCL/S AND
PRESENCE OF CLOSED UPPER LOW. SYSTEM ALSO HAS HISTORY OF PRODUCING
A FEW WEAK TORNADOES THUS FAR AS WELL.

GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT OF HEATING...STAYED CLOSE TO MODEL
BLEND FOR HIGHS TODAY /70S TO AROUND 80/ WHICH ALSO MATCHES MIXING
TO 850 MB /10-11C/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH REGION TONIGHT BRINGING MUCH LESS HUMID
AIR BY DAYBREAK AS SKIES CLEAR. LIGHT WINDS WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE
MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG ACROSS INTERIOR.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TUE...RESULTING IN
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH OF AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGHS ONCE AGAIN
SHOULD TOP OFF IN 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT WITH LOW HUMIDITY. WEAK
GRADIENT SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG BOTH COASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A MERIDIONAL TYPE FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEK. THE FOUR LOBES OF THIS FLOW ARE THE GULF OF ALASKA
TROUGH...WESTERN NORTH AMERICA RIDGE...EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
TROUGH...AND WEST ATLANTIC RIDGE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK COLD POOL IN EASTERN NO-AM
TROUGH...SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE DAILY INSTABILITY SHOWERS. ALSO
SHOWERS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE.  THE CORE OF THE EASTERN
NO-AM TROUGH EJECTS NORTH THROUGH QUEBEC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BUT A
WEAKER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MISS RIVER VALLEY OVER
THE WEEKEND.

THE SIMILARITY IN MODEL FIELDS FAVORS A BLEND OF AVAILABLE DATA.

THE DAILIES...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST
AND UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST...EXPECT THE DEPARTED COLD FRONT TO
ALIGN WITH THE UPPER FLOW AND STALL.  UPPER FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND
WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MEANWHILE COLD POOL INSTABILITY
UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER NY AND ONTARIO WHILE NEW ENGLAND
IS UNDER THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET...A SUBSIDENT
ZONE.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
FOR THE MOST PART THIS LOOKS LIKE A DRY WEATHER PERIOD WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...TRENDING TO THE LOWER 60S FRIDAY.

THIS WILL MEAN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WELL OFFSHORE AND OVER
NY/ONTARIO. MAIN CONCERN FOR PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WOULD BE IF SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM THE UPPER TROUGH
WHICH COULD SLIDE ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES INTO THE CT VALLEY.  SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL
FAVOR SUBSIDENCE AND DRY WEATHER.  WE WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN THE BERKS WEDNESDAY AND WEST OF MHT-ORH-IJD THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AND
CHANCE POPS ALONG/WEST OF THE CT VALLEY THURSDAY-FRIDAY. PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY... AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS
NORTH...EXPECT THE ATLANTIC HIGH TO SHIFT A LITTLE TO THE WEST. THIS
WOULD PUSH THE OFFSHORE FRONT WEST CLOSER TO THE COAST AND BRING AN
INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ON THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS TODAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.

IFR/LIFR IN SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS MORNING. ALSO LIFR IN FOG AREAS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND CENTRAL HILLS. EXPECT THESE INITIAL
TSTMS TO MOVE NORTH OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDDAY. FOG ALONG THE SOUTH COAST MAY BE
SLOWER TO IMPROVE IN THE HUMID AIRMASS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOW REDEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AFTER
18Z. EXPECT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY TSTMS. BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS
WILL BE IN AREAS ALONG/WEST/NORTH OF I-495. THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME OF THE STORMS IN THIS AREA TO PRODUCE STRONG OR DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR AFTER 00Z TUE...ALTHOUGH PATCHY
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG. VFR TUE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CIGS/VSBYS...FAIRLY CONFIDENT
ON IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 15Z. TS SHOULD REMAIN W OF AIRPORT
18Z-22Z.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIFR CIGS/VSBYS...FAIRLY
CONFIDENT IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z. TS MOST LIKELY 18Z-
22Z.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. AREAS OF IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY.  MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF MHT AND ORH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ROUGH SEAS ON
S COASTAL WATERS WHERE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO TUE.

S/SW FLOW PREVAILS TODAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS ON S
COASTAL WATERS...REACHING AS HIGH AS 5 OR 6 FT OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING
ON S COASTAL WATERS.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS WATERS THIS MORNING FROM LONG
ISLAND. SO FAR THESE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 35KT. POSSIBILITY OF A FEW MORE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ON E MA WATERS.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES WATERS TONIGHT BUT EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
PATCHY DENSE FOG...AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TUE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT MAY
APPROACH 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...SOUTHWEST MIDWEEK SHIFTING TO
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/JWD
NEAR TERM...WTB/JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/JWD
MARINE...WTB/JWD




000
FXUS61 KBOX 280711
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
311 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY JULY STANDARDS WILL
MOVE ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK TODAY BEFORE HEADING INTO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. IT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINGING
DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER...AS THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER
THE MARITIMES AND NEW ENGLAND OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
*** HEAVY RAINFALL/STORMS THIS MORNING ***
*** FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ***

310 AM UPDATE...

BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS FROM WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY INTO NYC AND
NJ IS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AS
UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIFT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THIS MORNING...BEFORE SHIFTING FARTHER N THIS
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THIS MAY END UP AFFECTING LOCATIONS NEAR S
COAST AS OPPOSED TO INTERIOR PER RADAR TRENDS.

MAIN THREAT THIS MORNING IS LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY
RAINFALL...IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT
STRONG WIND GUSTS GIVEN ENVIRONMENT OF RATHER HIGH 0-6KM SHEAR AND
DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THOUGH GIVEN TIME OF DAY CONFIDENCE
IS LOW THAT STRONG WINDS WILL BE REALIZED.

ONCE THIS INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS LIFTS N BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS.

MODELS INSISTENT THAT DRY SLOT WILL WORK ITS WAY UP COAST INTO SE
NEW ENGLAND...AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD RESIDE ACROSS INTERIOR AS
SEEN IN K-INDEX FIELDS. INSTABILITY IS IN QUESTION AS WE ARE NOT
CONFIDENT ON HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR...IF AT ALL. BUT
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF HIGH 0-6KM SHEAR /OVER 35KT/ AND GOOD LOW
LEVEL TURNING IN FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL ARE MAIN THREATS...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
WEAK TORNADO GIVEN HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...LOW LCL/S AND
PRESENCE OF CLOSED UPPER LOW. SYSTEM ALSO HAS HISTORY OF PRODUCING
A FEW WEAK TORNADOES THUS FAR AS WELL.

GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT OF HEATING...STAYED CLOSE TO MODEL
BLEND FOR HIGHS TODAY /70S TO AROUND 80/ WHICH ALSO MATCHES MIXING
TO 850 MB /10-11C/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH REGION TONIGHT BRINGING MUCH LESS HUMID
AIR BY DAYBREAK AS SKIES CLEAR. LIGHT WINDS WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE
MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG ACROSS INTERIOR.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TUE...RESULTING IN
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH OF AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGHS ONCE AGAIN
SHOULD TOP OFF IN 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT WITH LOW HUMIDITY. WEAK
GRADIENT SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG BOTH COASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A MERIDIONAL TYPE FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEK. THE FOUR LOBES OF THIS FLOW ARE THE GULF OF ALASKA
TROUGH...WESTERN NORTH AMERICA RIDGE...EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
TROUGH...AND WEST ATLANTIC RIDGE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK COLD POOL IN EASTERN NO-AM
TROUGH...SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE DAILY INSTABILITY SHOWERS. ALSO
SHOWERS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE.  THE CORE OF THE EASTERN
NO-AM TROUGH EJECTS NORTH THROUGH QUEBEC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BUT A
WEAKER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MISS RIVER VALLEY OVER
THE WEEKEND.

THE SIMILARITY IN MODEL FIELDS FAVORS A BLEND OF AVAILABLE DATA.

THE DAILIES...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST
AND UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST...EXPECT THE DEPARTED COLD FRONT TO
ALIGN WITH THE UPPER FLOW AND STALL.  UPPER FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND
WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MEANWHILE COLD POOL INSTABILITY
UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER NY AND ONTARIO WHILE NEW ENGLAND
IS UNDER THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET...A SUBSIDENT
ZONE.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
FOR THE MOST PART THIS LOOKS LIKE A DRY WEATHER PERIOD WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...TRENDING TO THE LOWER 60S FRIDAY.

THIS WILL MEAN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WELL OFFSHORE AND OVER
NY/ONTARIO. MAIN CONCERN FOR PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WOULD BE IF SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM THE UPPER TROUGH
WHICH COULD SLIDE ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES INTO THE CT VALLEY.  SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL
FAVOR SUBSIDENCE AND DRY WEATHER.  WE WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN THE BERKS WEDNESDAY AND WEST OF MHT-ORH-IJD THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AND
CHANCE POPS ALONG/WEST OF THE CT VALLEY THURSDAY-FRIDAY. PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY... AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS
NORTH...EXPECT THE ATLANTIC HIGH TO SHIFT A LITTLE TO THE WEST. THIS
WOULD PUSH THE OFFSHORE FRONT WEST CLOSER TO THE COAST AND BRING AN
INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ON THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

LOW CONFIDENCE THROUGH 12Z...THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS
BEYOND THAT.

CONDITIONS LOWER TO IFR/LIFR THROUGH 12Z AS FOG/LOW CLOUDS BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD. AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS LIFTING NE FROM NYC AREA
WILL REACH CT VALLEY 06Z-08Z AND E MA COAST 08Z-10Z. POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

AS THIS ACTIVITY LIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...MVFR CIGS PREVAIL BUT MANY AREAS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
BY 18Z. EXCEPTION IS ALONG S COAST WHERE IT WILL TAKE LONGER FOR
LOWER CEILINGS TO LIFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP
ACROSS INTERIOR AFTER 18Z...MAINLY IN SW NH...WESTERN/CENTRAL MA
AND N CT.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR AFTER 00Z TUE...ALTHOUGH PATCHY
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG. VFR TUE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOP AS
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS ARRIVE AFTER 08Z. FAIRLY CONFIDENT ON
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 15Z. TS SHOULD REMAIN W OF AIRPORT
18Z-22Z.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOP AS
SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVE BY 08Z. FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z. TS MOST LIKELY 18Z-22Z.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. AREAS OF IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY.  MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF MHT AND ORH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ROUGH SEAS ON
S COASTAL WATERS WHERE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO TUE.

S/SW FLOW PREVAILS TODAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS ON S
COASTAL WATERS...REACHING AS HIGH AS 5 OR 6 FT OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING
ON S COASTAL WATERS.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS WATERS THIS MORNING FROM LONG
ISLAND. SO FAR THESE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 35KT. POSSIBILITY OF A FEW MORE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ON E MA WATERS.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES WATERS TONIGHT BUT EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
PATCHY DENSE FOG...AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TUE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT MAY
APPROACH 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...SOUTHWEST MIDWEEK SHIFTING TO
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/JWD
MARINE...WTB/JWD



000
FXUS61 KBOX 280711
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
311 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY JULY STANDARDS WILL
MOVE ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK TODAY BEFORE HEADING INTO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. IT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINGING
DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER...AS THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER
THE MARITIMES AND NEW ENGLAND OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
*** HEAVY RAINFALL/STORMS THIS MORNING ***
*** FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ***

310 AM UPDATE...

BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS FROM WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY INTO NYC AND
NJ IS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AS
UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIFT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THIS MORNING...BEFORE SHIFTING FARTHER N THIS
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THIS MAY END UP AFFECTING LOCATIONS NEAR S
COAST AS OPPOSED TO INTERIOR PER RADAR TRENDS.

MAIN THREAT THIS MORNING IS LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY
RAINFALL...IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT
STRONG WIND GUSTS GIVEN ENVIRONMENT OF RATHER HIGH 0-6KM SHEAR AND
DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THOUGH GIVEN TIME OF DAY CONFIDENCE
IS LOW THAT STRONG WINDS WILL BE REALIZED.

ONCE THIS INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS LIFTS N BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS.

MODELS INSISTENT THAT DRY SLOT WILL WORK ITS WAY UP COAST INTO SE
NEW ENGLAND...AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD RESIDE ACROSS INTERIOR AS
SEEN IN K-INDEX FIELDS. INSTABILITY IS IN QUESTION AS WE ARE NOT
CONFIDENT ON HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR...IF AT ALL. BUT
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF HIGH 0-6KM SHEAR /OVER 35KT/ AND GOOD LOW
LEVEL TURNING IN FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL ARE MAIN THREATS...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
WEAK TORNADO GIVEN HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...LOW LCL/S AND
PRESENCE OF CLOSED UPPER LOW. SYSTEM ALSO HAS HISTORY OF PRODUCING
A FEW WEAK TORNADOES THUS FAR AS WELL.

GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT OF HEATING...STAYED CLOSE TO MODEL
BLEND FOR HIGHS TODAY /70S TO AROUND 80/ WHICH ALSO MATCHES MIXING
TO 850 MB /10-11C/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH REGION TONIGHT BRINGING MUCH LESS HUMID
AIR BY DAYBREAK AS SKIES CLEAR. LIGHT WINDS WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE
MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG ACROSS INTERIOR.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TUE...RESULTING IN
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH OF AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGHS ONCE AGAIN
SHOULD TOP OFF IN 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT WITH LOW HUMIDITY. WEAK
GRADIENT SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG BOTH COASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A MERIDIONAL TYPE FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEK. THE FOUR LOBES OF THIS FLOW ARE THE GULF OF ALASKA
TROUGH...WESTERN NORTH AMERICA RIDGE...EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
TROUGH...AND WEST ATLANTIC RIDGE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK COLD POOL IN EASTERN NO-AM
TROUGH...SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE DAILY INSTABILITY SHOWERS. ALSO
SHOWERS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE.  THE CORE OF THE EASTERN
NO-AM TROUGH EJECTS NORTH THROUGH QUEBEC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BUT A
WEAKER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MISS RIVER VALLEY OVER
THE WEEKEND.

THE SIMILARITY IN MODEL FIELDS FAVORS A BLEND OF AVAILABLE DATA.

THE DAILIES...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST
AND UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST...EXPECT THE DEPARTED COLD FRONT TO
ALIGN WITH THE UPPER FLOW AND STALL.  UPPER FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND
WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MEANWHILE COLD POOL INSTABILITY
UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER NY AND ONTARIO WHILE NEW ENGLAND
IS UNDER THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET...A SUBSIDENT
ZONE.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
FOR THE MOST PART THIS LOOKS LIKE A DRY WEATHER PERIOD WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...TRENDING TO THE LOWER 60S FRIDAY.

THIS WILL MEAN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WELL OFFSHORE AND OVER
NY/ONTARIO. MAIN CONCERN FOR PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WOULD BE IF SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM THE UPPER TROUGH
WHICH COULD SLIDE ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES INTO THE CT VALLEY.  SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL
FAVOR SUBSIDENCE AND DRY WEATHER.  WE WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN THE BERKS WEDNESDAY AND WEST OF MHT-ORH-IJD THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AND
CHANCE POPS ALONG/WEST OF THE CT VALLEY THURSDAY-FRIDAY. PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY... AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS
NORTH...EXPECT THE ATLANTIC HIGH TO SHIFT A LITTLE TO THE WEST. THIS
WOULD PUSH THE OFFSHORE FRONT WEST CLOSER TO THE COAST AND BRING AN
INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ON THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

LOW CONFIDENCE THROUGH 12Z...THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS
BEYOND THAT.

CONDITIONS LOWER TO IFR/LIFR THROUGH 12Z AS FOG/LOW CLOUDS BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD. AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS LIFTING NE FROM NYC AREA
WILL REACH CT VALLEY 06Z-08Z AND E MA COAST 08Z-10Z. POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

AS THIS ACTIVITY LIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...MVFR CIGS PREVAIL BUT MANY AREAS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
BY 18Z. EXCEPTION IS ALONG S COAST WHERE IT WILL TAKE LONGER FOR
LOWER CEILINGS TO LIFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP
ACROSS INTERIOR AFTER 18Z...MAINLY IN SW NH...WESTERN/CENTRAL MA
AND N CT.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR AFTER 00Z TUE...ALTHOUGH PATCHY
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG. VFR TUE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOP AS
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS ARRIVE AFTER 08Z. FAIRLY CONFIDENT ON
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 15Z. TS SHOULD REMAIN W OF AIRPORT
18Z-22Z.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOP AS
SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVE BY 08Z. FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z. TS MOST LIKELY 18Z-22Z.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. AREAS OF IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY.  MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF MHT AND ORH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ROUGH SEAS ON
S COASTAL WATERS WHERE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO TUE.

S/SW FLOW PREVAILS TODAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS ON S
COASTAL WATERS...REACHING AS HIGH AS 5 OR 6 FT OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING
ON S COASTAL WATERS.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS WATERS THIS MORNING FROM LONG
ISLAND. SO FAR THESE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 35KT. POSSIBILITY OF A FEW MORE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ON E MA WATERS.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES WATERS TONIGHT BUT EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
PATCHY DENSE FOG...AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TUE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT MAY
APPROACH 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...SOUTHWEST MIDWEEK SHIFTING TO
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/JWD
MARINE...WTB/JWD



000
FXUS61 KBOX 280711
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
311 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY JULY STANDARDS WILL
MOVE ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK TODAY BEFORE HEADING INTO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. IT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINGING
DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER...AS THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER
THE MARITIMES AND NEW ENGLAND OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
*** HEAVY RAINFALL/STORMS THIS MORNING ***
*** FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ***

310 AM UPDATE...

BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS FROM WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY INTO NYC AND
NJ IS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AS
UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIFT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THIS MORNING...BEFORE SHIFTING FARTHER N THIS
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THIS MAY END UP AFFECTING LOCATIONS NEAR S
COAST AS OPPOSED TO INTERIOR PER RADAR TRENDS.

MAIN THREAT THIS MORNING IS LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY
RAINFALL...IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT
STRONG WIND GUSTS GIVEN ENVIRONMENT OF RATHER HIGH 0-6KM SHEAR AND
DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THOUGH GIVEN TIME OF DAY CONFIDENCE
IS LOW THAT STRONG WINDS WILL BE REALIZED.

ONCE THIS INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS LIFTS N BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS.

MODELS INSISTENT THAT DRY SLOT WILL WORK ITS WAY UP COAST INTO SE
NEW ENGLAND...AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD RESIDE ACROSS INTERIOR AS
SEEN IN K-INDEX FIELDS. INSTABILITY IS IN QUESTION AS WE ARE NOT
CONFIDENT ON HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR...IF AT ALL. BUT
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF HIGH 0-6KM SHEAR /OVER 35KT/ AND GOOD LOW
LEVEL TURNING IN FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL ARE MAIN THREATS...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
WEAK TORNADO GIVEN HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...LOW LCL/S AND
PRESENCE OF CLOSED UPPER LOW. SYSTEM ALSO HAS HISTORY OF PRODUCING
A FEW WEAK TORNADOES THUS FAR AS WELL.

GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT OF HEATING...STAYED CLOSE TO MODEL
BLEND FOR HIGHS TODAY /70S TO AROUND 80/ WHICH ALSO MATCHES MIXING
TO 850 MB /10-11C/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH REGION TONIGHT BRINGING MUCH LESS HUMID
AIR BY DAYBREAK AS SKIES CLEAR. LIGHT WINDS WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE
MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG ACROSS INTERIOR.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TUE...RESULTING IN
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH OF AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGHS ONCE AGAIN
SHOULD TOP OFF IN 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT WITH LOW HUMIDITY. WEAK
GRADIENT SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG BOTH COASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A MERIDIONAL TYPE FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEK. THE FOUR LOBES OF THIS FLOW ARE THE GULF OF ALASKA
TROUGH...WESTERN NORTH AMERICA RIDGE...EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
TROUGH...AND WEST ATLANTIC RIDGE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK COLD POOL IN EASTERN NO-AM
TROUGH...SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE DAILY INSTABILITY SHOWERS. ALSO
SHOWERS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE.  THE CORE OF THE EASTERN
NO-AM TROUGH EJECTS NORTH THROUGH QUEBEC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BUT A
WEAKER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MISS RIVER VALLEY OVER
THE WEEKEND.

THE SIMILARITY IN MODEL FIELDS FAVORS A BLEND OF AVAILABLE DATA.

THE DAILIES...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST
AND UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST...EXPECT THE DEPARTED COLD FRONT TO
ALIGN WITH THE UPPER FLOW AND STALL.  UPPER FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND
WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MEANWHILE COLD POOL INSTABILITY
UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER NY AND ONTARIO WHILE NEW ENGLAND
IS UNDER THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET...A SUBSIDENT
ZONE.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
FOR THE MOST PART THIS LOOKS LIKE A DRY WEATHER PERIOD WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...TRENDING TO THE LOWER 60S FRIDAY.

THIS WILL MEAN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WELL OFFSHORE AND OVER
NY/ONTARIO. MAIN CONCERN FOR PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WOULD BE IF SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM THE UPPER TROUGH
WHICH COULD SLIDE ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES INTO THE CT VALLEY.  SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL
FAVOR SUBSIDENCE AND DRY WEATHER.  WE WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN THE BERKS WEDNESDAY AND WEST OF MHT-ORH-IJD THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AND
CHANCE POPS ALONG/WEST OF THE CT VALLEY THURSDAY-FRIDAY. PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY... AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS
NORTH...EXPECT THE ATLANTIC HIGH TO SHIFT A LITTLE TO THE WEST. THIS
WOULD PUSH THE OFFSHORE FRONT WEST CLOSER TO THE COAST AND BRING AN
INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ON THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

LOW CONFIDENCE THROUGH 12Z...THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS
BEYOND THAT.

CONDITIONS LOWER TO IFR/LIFR THROUGH 12Z AS FOG/LOW CLOUDS BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD. AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS LIFTING NE FROM NYC AREA
WILL REACH CT VALLEY 06Z-08Z AND E MA COAST 08Z-10Z. POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

AS THIS ACTIVITY LIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...MVFR CIGS PREVAIL BUT MANY AREAS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
BY 18Z. EXCEPTION IS ALONG S COAST WHERE IT WILL TAKE LONGER FOR
LOWER CEILINGS TO LIFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP
ACROSS INTERIOR AFTER 18Z...MAINLY IN SW NH...WESTERN/CENTRAL MA
AND N CT.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR AFTER 00Z TUE...ALTHOUGH PATCHY
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG. VFR TUE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOP AS
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS ARRIVE AFTER 08Z. FAIRLY CONFIDENT ON
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 15Z. TS SHOULD REMAIN W OF AIRPORT
18Z-22Z.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOP AS
SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVE BY 08Z. FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z. TS MOST LIKELY 18Z-22Z.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. AREAS OF IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY.  MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF MHT AND ORH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ROUGH SEAS ON
S COASTAL WATERS WHERE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO TUE.

S/SW FLOW PREVAILS TODAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS ON S
COASTAL WATERS...REACHING AS HIGH AS 5 OR 6 FT OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING
ON S COASTAL WATERS.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS WATERS THIS MORNING FROM LONG
ISLAND. SO FAR THESE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 35KT. POSSIBILITY OF A FEW MORE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ON E MA WATERS.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES WATERS TONIGHT BUT EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
PATCHY DENSE FOG...AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TUE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT MAY
APPROACH 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...SOUTHWEST MIDWEEK SHIFTING TO
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/JWD
MARINE...WTB/JWD



000
FXUS61 KBOX 280711
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
311 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY JULY STANDARDS WILL
MOVE ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK TODAY BEFORE HEADING INTO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. IT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINGING
DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER...AS THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER
THE MARITIMES AND NEW ENGLAND OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
*** HEAVY RAINFALL/STORMS THIS MORNING ***
*** FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ***

310 AM UPDATE...

BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS FROM WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY INTO NYC AND
NJ IS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AS
UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIFT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THIS MORNING...BEFORE SHIFTING FARTHER N THIS
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THIS MAY END UP AFFECTING LOCATIONS NEAR S
COAST AS OPPOSED TO INTERIOR PER RADAR TRENDS.

MAIN THREAT THIS MORNING IS LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY
RAINFALL...IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT
STRONG WIND GUSTS GIVEN ENVIRONMENT OF RATHER HIGH 0-6KM SHEAR AND
DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THOUGH GIVEN TIME OF DAY CONFIDENCE
IS LOW THAT STRONG WINDS WILL BE REALIZED.

ONCE THIS INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS LIFTS N BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS.

MODELS INSISTENT THAT DRY SLOT WILL WORK ITS WAY UP COAST INTO SE
NEW ENGLAND...AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD RESIDE ACROSS INTERIOR AS
SEEN IN K-INDEX FIELDS. INSTABILITY IS IN QUESTION AS WE ARE NOT
CONFIDENT ON HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR...IF AT ALL. BUT
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF HIGH 0-6KM SHEAR /OVER 35KT/ AND GOOD LOW
LEVEL TURNING IN FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL ARE MAIN THREATS...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
WEAK TORNADO GIVEN HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...LOW LCL/S AND
PRESENCE OF CLOSED UPPER LOW. SYSTEM ALSO HAS HISTORY OF PRODUCING
A FEW WEAK TORNADOES THUS FAR AS WELL.

GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT OF HEATING...STAYED CLOSE TO MODEL
BLEND FOR HIGHS TODAY /70S TO AROUND 80/ WHICH ALSO MATCHES MIXING
TO 850 MB /10-11C/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH REGION TONIGHT BRINGING MUCH LESS HUMID
AIR BY DAYBREAK AS SKIES CLEAR. LIGHT WINDS WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE
MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG ACROSS INTERIOR.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TUE...RESULTING IN
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NOT MUCH OF AIRMASS CHANGE SO HIGHS ONCE AGAIN
SHOULD TOP OFF IN 70S TO AROUND 80 BUT WITH LOW HUMIDITY. WEAK
GRADIENT SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG BOTH COASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A MERIDIONAL TYPE FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEK. THE FOUR LOBES OF THIS FLOW ARE THE GULF OF ALASKA
TROUGH...WESTERN NORTH AMERICA RIDGE...EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
TROUGH...AND WEST ATLANTIC RIDGE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK COLD POOL IN EASTERN NO-AM
TROUGH...SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE DAILY INSTABILITY SHOWERS. ALSO
SHOWERS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE.  THE CORE OF THE EASTERN
NO-AM TROUGH EJECTS NORTH THROUGH QUEBEC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BUT A
WEAKER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MISS RIVER VALLEY OVER
THE WEEKEND.

THE SIMILARITY IN MODEL FIELDS FAVORS A BLEND OF AVAILABLE DATA.

THE DAILIES...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST
AND UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST...EXPECT THE DEPARTED COLD FRONT TO
ALIGN WITH THE UPPER FLOW AND STALL.  UPPER FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND
WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MEANWHILE COLD POOL INSTABILITY
UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER NY AND ONTARIO WHILE NEW ENGLAND
IS UNDER THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET...A SUBSIDENT
ZONE.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
FOR THE MOST PART THIS LOOKS LIKE A DRY WEATHER PERIOD WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...TRENDING TO THE LOWER 60S FRIDAY.

THIS WILL MEAN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WELL OFFSHORE AND OVER
NY/ONTARIO. MAIN CONCERN FOR PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WOULD BE IF SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM THE UPPER TROUGH
WHICH COULD SLIDE ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES INTO THE CT VALLEY.  SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL
FAVOR SUBSIDENCE AND DRY WEATHER.  WE WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN THE BERKS WEDNESDAY AND WEST OF MHT-ORH-IJD THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AND
CHANCE POPS ALONG/WEST OF THE CT VALLEY THURSDAY-FRIDAY. PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY... AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS
NORTH...EXPECT THE ATLANTIC HIGH TO SHIFT A LITTLE TO THE WEST. THIS
WOULD PUSH THE OFFSHORE FRONT WEST CLOSER TO THE COAST AND BRING AN
INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ON THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

LOW CONFIDENCE THROUGH 12Z...THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS
BEYOND THAT.

CONDITIONS LOWER TO IFR/LIFR THROUGH 12Z AS FOG/LOW CLOUDS BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD. AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS LIFTING NE FROM NYC AREA
WILL REACH CT VALLEY 06Z-08Z AND E MA COAST 08Z-10Z. POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

AS THIS ACTIVITY LIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...MVFR CIGS PREVAIL BUT MANY AREAS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
BY 18Z. EXCEPTION IS ALONG S COAST WHERE IT WILL TAKE LONGER FOR
LOWER CEILINGS TO LIFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP
ACROSS INTERIOR AFTER 18Z...MAINLY IN SW NH...WESTERN/CENTRAL MA
AND N CT.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR AFTER 00Z TUE...ALTHOUGH PATCHY
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG. VFR TUE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOP AS
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS ARRIVE AFTER 08Z. FAIRLY CONFIDENT ON
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 15Z. TS SHOULD REMAIN W OF AIRPORT
18Z-22Z.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOP AS
SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVE BY 08Z. FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z. TS MOST LIKELY 18Z-22Z.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. AREAS OF IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY.  MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF MHT AND ORH.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ROUGH SEAS ON
S COASTAL WATERS WHERE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO TUE.

S/SW FLOW PREVAILS TODAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS ON S
COASTAL WATERS...REACHING AS HIGH AS 5 OR 6 FT OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING
ON S COASTAL WATERS.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS WATERS THIS MORNING FROM LONG
ISLAND. SO FAR THESE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 35KT. POSSIBILITY OF A FEW MORE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ON E MA WATERS.

COLD FRONT APPROACHES WATERS TONIGHT BUT EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
PATCHY DENSE FOG...AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TUE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT MAY
APPROACH 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...SOUTHWEST MIDWEEK SHIFTING TO
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/JWD
MARINE...WTB/JWD



000
FXUS61 KBOX 280504
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
104 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BY JULY STANDARDS WILL DEVELOP
OVER NY AND PA TONIGHT. ITS WARM FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. BY TUE THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WITH DRY AND MUCH
LESS HUMID WEATHER OVERSPREADING THE REGION AND CONTINUING FOR
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
*** HEAVY RAIN/STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING ***
*** FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ***

1 AM UPDATE...

BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY INTO NYC AND
NJ IS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AS
UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIFT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THIS MORNING...BEFORE SHIFTING FARTHER N THIS
AFTERNOON.

MAIN THREAT THIS MORNING IS LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY
RAINFALL...IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT
STRONG WIND GUSTS GIVEN ENVIRONMENT OF RATHER HIGH 0-6KM SHEAR AND
DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THOUGH GIVEN TIME OF DAY CONFIDENCE
IS LOW THAT STRONG WINDS WILL BE REALIZED.

ONCE THIS INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS LIFTS N BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS.

MODELS INSISTENT THAT DRY SLOT WILL WORK ITS WAY UP COAST INTO SE
NEW ENGLAND...AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD RESIDE ACROSS INTERIOR AS
SEEN IN K-INDEX FIELDS. INSTABILITY IS IN QUESTION AS WE ARE NOT
CONFIDENT ON HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR...IF AT ALL. BUT
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF HIGH 0-6KM SHEAR /OVER 35KT/ AND GOOD LOW
LEVEL TURNING IN FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL ARE MAIN THREATS...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
WEAK TORNADO GIVEN HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND PRESENCE OF
CLOSED UPPER LOW. SYSTEM ALSO HAS HISTORY OF PRODUCING FEW WEAK
TORNADOES THUS FAR AS WELL.

GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT OF HEATING...STAYED CLOSE TO MODEL
BLEND FOR HIGHS TODAY /70S TO AROUND 80/ WHICH ALSO MATCHES MIXING
TO 850 MB /10-11C/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
BIG IMPROVEMENT BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH MUCH LESS HUMID
AIRMASS OVERSPREADING THE REGION WITH DEW PTS FALLING INTO THE
50S! THIS WILL SUPPORT LOW TEMPS BY TUE MORNING IN THE MU50S
INLAND AND LOW TO MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.


DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TUE AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - SLIGHTLY COOL AND DRY INTO THE END OF JULY!
 - SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY
 - DECENT CHANCES FOR WET WEATHER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
 - POSSIBLE DAILY OCCURRENCES OF INTERIOR STORMS INTO NEXT WEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

INCREDIBLE PATTERN FOR MID-SUMMER! ENSEMBLE SIGNALS AVERAGING WELL-
BELOW NORMAL /-4 TO -5 SD/ FOR BOTH TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY ACROSS
THE NE CONUS AS A BUCKLED PATTERN PREVAILS WITH PREFERRED TROUGHING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES NEIGHBORED BY STRONG RIDGING. ANTICIPATING A
COOL TO SEASONABLE PATTERN LACKING OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY.

GOING DEEPER...SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE NAO/AO INDICES INTO THE EARLY-HALF
OF AUGUST AS THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD OF THE PNA EXHIBITS AN OVERALL
POSITIVE TREND SIGNALS CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE E-PACIFIC WITH
PREFERRED TROUGHING E. NO SURPRISE THAT THE NAEFS/GEFS ANALOGS ALONG
WITH THE EC-ENSEMBLE HOLD A BUCKLED PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
W-ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS STOUT. TREND OF ANOMALOUS BELOW-NORMAL
CONDITIONS PREVAILS.

THOUGH...PER AFOREMENTIONED ANALOGS/ENSEMBLES...THERE IS A POTENTIAL
TREND TOWARDS DEAMPLIFICATION. THIS RESONATES WITHIN GLOBAL FORECAST
SOLUTIONS HIGHLIGHTING A PHASE-SHIFT IN THE MJO CLIMATOLOGICALLY
RESULTING IN A MORE ZONAL PATTERN WITH WARMER TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES
OVER NORTH AMERICA. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH A CONTINUED LOW ANOMALY
OVER NE CANADA. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE.

AS TO THE FORECAST...WILL TREND WITH MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS AS
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS USHERING MUCH COOLER AIR S OUT OF
CANADA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES VARY...BUT WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES AND ACCOMPANYING JET STREAKS THROUGH THE
OVERALL TROUGH PATTERN. ITS PLAUSIBLE TO SEE PERIODS OF WET WEATHER
SHOULD THE TROUGH WOBBLE PARENT WITH ITS NEIGHBORING RIDGE AXES.
WILL BREAK DOWN THE HIGHLIGHTS/CONFIDENCE WITHIN THE DAILY
DISCUSSION BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...

MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW USHERS +8-10C H85 AIR INTO S NEW
ENGLAND AS THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY/DYNAMICS IS SHUNTED OFFSHORE.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WITH LIGHT WINDS SLOWLY TURNING S TOWARDS THE END
OF THE PERIOD. LOTS OF DRY AIR IN PLACE AS IT CONTINUALLY WRAPS INTO
THE OCCLUSION AS NEW ENGLAND FINDS ITSELF WITHIN THE LFQ OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL JET...A FAVORABLE REGION OF SUBSIDENCE.

WILL PREVAIL WITH SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE
SHORES. A DRY FORECAST WITH ACTIVITY HELD WELL N/W PARENT WITH THE
OCCLUSION AND BETTER COLD-POOL. PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS DURING THE
DAY WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS.

THURSDAY...

MAIN IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OCCLUSION EJECTS CYCLONICALLY OVER
THE E GREAT LAKES. EXPECT SUBSEQUENT FALLING HEIGHTS COLLOCATED WITH
STRONG ENHANCED ASCENT AND DEEP-LAYER LIFT /ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE
LFQ OF AN ATTENDANT JET STREAK/.

SHOULD SEE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ACTIVITY DEVELOP ACROSS INTERIOR NEW
ENGLAND BENEATH COOLER AIR ALOFT AND CYCLONIC FLOW. SEVERITY SHOULD
BE LIMITED LACK OF INSTABILITY WITH POOR LAPSE RATES AND ABUNDANCE
OF DRY AIR...DESPITE DECENT SW-NE UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY AWAY FROM THE SHORELINES WHICH SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ONSHORE MARITIME AIR.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...

PACIFIC-ORIGIN ENERGY ROUNDING THE BROADER TROUGH PATTERN STREAMS NE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RESOLVES A FASTER JET STREAK SUBSEQUENTLY. SHOULD SEE A
BROADSCALE REGION OF FAVORABLE ASCENT DEVELOP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.

BUT CHALLENGES PREVAIL BETWEEN LIKELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY
ACROSS INTERIOR NE-CONUS AND LINGERING OFFSHORE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
ANTICIPATING A REGION BETWEEN OF DRIER WEATHER...JUST WHERE AND HOW
IT EVOLVES ENTERTAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY.

EC/GEFS TREND WITH ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHEREAS THE
27.12Z GFS RETROGRADES THE OFFSHORE FRONT PARENT WITH A FRONTAL LOW
CONSEQUENTIAL OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC ENERGY. ALL SOLUTIONS
SHOW THE MAIN LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES LIFTING OUT OF THE REGION TO
THE NE.

SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

THOUGH PATTERN DEAMPLIFICATION IS POSSIBLE...CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS
BEHIND THE EARLIER PACIFIC IMPULSE. WILL HOLD WITH THE TYPICAL
SUMMER-TIME PATTERN OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH QUIET
WEATHER ALONG THE SHORES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

LOW CONFIDENCE THROUGH 12Z...THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS
BEYOND THAT.

CONDITIONS LOWER TO IFR/LIFR THROUGH 12Z AS FOG/LOW CLOUDS BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD. AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS LIFTING NE FROM NYC AREA
WILL REACH CT VALLEY 06Z-08Z AND E MA COAST 08Z-10Z. POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

AS THIS ACTIVITY LIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...MVFR CIGS PREVAIL BUT MANY AREAS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
BY 18Z. EXCEPTION IS ALONG S COAST WHERE IT WILL TAKE LONGER FOR
LOWER CEILINGS TO LIFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP
ACROSS INTERIOR AFTER 18Z...MAINLY IN SW NH...WESTERN/CENTRAL MA
AND N CT.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR AFTER 00Z TUE...ALTHOUGH PATCHY
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG. VFR TUE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOP AS
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS ARRIVE AFTER 08Z. FAIRLY CONFIDENT ON
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 15Z. TS SHOULD REMAIN W OF AIRPORT
18Z-22Z.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOP AS
SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVE BY 08Z. FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z. TS MOST LIKELY 18Z-22Z.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS GRADUALLY
TURNING S. SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS WITH MIX OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.
SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES.

FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. SCATTERED-WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA. MAIN FOCUS
ACROSS SE/W/CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. COULD BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY AROUND
THE BOS-PVD CORRIDOR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON NIGHT

TONIGHT...PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND TSTMS REDEVELOP
TOWARD DAYBREAK. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY
RAIN.

MONDAY...PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE MORNING BURNS OFF/ERODES BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND TSTMS TAPER OFF FOLLOWED BY A
NEW ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY BE STRONG ALONG WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SSW WINDS MAY
APPROACH 25 KT AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE.

MON NIGHT...COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS WITH A WIND SHIFT
TO THE WNW ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIGHT WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR TRANQUIL BOATING
WEATHER AS SEAS DIMINISH.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WHILE BOATING CONDITIONS REMAIN
TRANQUIL...WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...JWD
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 280504
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
104 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BY JULY STANDARDS WILL DEVELOP
OVER NY AND PA TONIGHT. ITS WARM FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. BY TUE THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WITH DRY AND MUCH
LESS HUMID WEATHER OVERSPREADING THE REGION AND CONTINUING FOR
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
*** HEAVY RAIN/STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING ***
*** FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ***

1 AM UPDATE...

BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY INTO NYC AND
NJ IS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AS
UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIFT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THIS MORNING...BEFORE SHIFTING FARTHER N THIS
AFTERNOON.

MAIN THREAT THIS MORNING IS LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY
RAINFALL...IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT
STRONG WIND GUSTS GIVEN ENVIRONMENT OF RATHER HIGH 0-6KM SHEAR AND
DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THOUGH GIVEN TIME OF DAY CONFIDENCE
IS LOW THAT STRONG WINDS WILL BE REALIZED.

ONCE THIS INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS LIFTS N BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS.

MODELS INSISTENT THAT DRY SLOT WILL WORK ITS WAY UP COAST INTO SE
NEW ENGLAND...AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD RESIDE ACROSS INTERIOR AS
SEEN IN K-INDEX FIELDS. INSTABILITY IS IN QUESTION AS WE ARE NOT
CONFIDENT ON HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR...IF AT ALL. BUT
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF HIGH 0-6KM SHEAR /OVER 35KT/ AND GOOD LOW
LEVEL TURNING IN FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL ARE MAIN THREATS...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
WEAK TORNADO GIVEN HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND PRESENCE OF
CLOSED UPPER LOW. SYSTEM ALSO HAS HISTORY OF PRODUCING FEW WEAK
TORNADOES THUS FAR AS WELL.

GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT OF HEATING...STAYED CLOSE TO MODEL
BLEND FOR HIGHS TODAY /70S TO AROUND 80/ WHICH ALSO MATCHES MIXING
TO 850 MB /10-11C/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
BIG IMPROVEMENT BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH MUCH LESS HUMID
AIRMASS OVERSPREADING THE REGION WITH DEW PTS FALLING INTO THE
50S! THIS WILL SUPPORT LOW TEMPS BY TUE MORNING IN THE MU50S
INLAND AND LOW TO MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.


DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TUE AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - SLIGHTLY COOL AND DRY INTO THE END OF JULY!
 - SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY
 - DECENT CHANCES FOR WET WEATHER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
 - POSSIBLE DAILY OCCURRENCES OF INTERIOR STORMS INTO NEXT WEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

INCREDIBLE PATTERN FOR MID-SUMMER! ENSEMBLE SIGNALS AVERAGING WELL-
BELOW NORMAL /-4 TO -5 SD/ FOR BOTH TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY ACROSS
THE NE CONUS AS A BUCKLED PATTERN PREVAILS WITH PREFERRED TROUGHING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES NEIGHBORED BY STRONG RIDGING. ANTICIPATING A
COOL TO SEASONABLE PATTERN LACKING OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY.

GOING DEEPER...SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE NAO/AO INDICES INTO THE EARLY-HALF
OF AUGUST AS THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD OF THE PNA EXHIBITS AN OVERALL
POSITIVE TREND SIGNALS CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE E-PACIFIC WITH
PREFERRED TROUGHING E. NO SURPRISE THAT THE NAEFS/GEFS ANALOGS ALONG
WITH THE EC-ENSEMBLE HOLD A BUCKLED PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
W-ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS STOUT. TREND OF ANOMALOUS BELOW-NORMAL
CONDITIONS PREVAILS.

THOUGH...PER AFOREMENTIONED ANALOGS/ENSEMBLES...THERE IS A POTENTIAL
TREND TOWARDS DEAMPLIFICATION. THIS RESONATES WITHIN GLOBAL FORECAST
SOLUTIONS HIGHLIGHTING A PHASE-SHIFT IN THE MJO CLIMATOLOGICALLY
RESULTING IN A MORE ZONAL PATTERN WITH WARMER TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES
OVER NORTH AMERICA. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH A CONTINUED LOW ANOMALY
OVER NE CANADA. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE.

AS TO THE FORECAST...WILL TREND WITH MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS AS
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS USHERING MUCH COOLER AIR S OUT OF
CANADA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES VARY...BUT WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES AND ACCOMPANYING JET STREAKS THROUGH THE
OVERALL TROUGH PATTERN. ITS PLAUSIBLE TO SEE PERIODS OF WET WEATHER
SHOULD THE TROUGH WOBBLE PARENT WITH ITS NEIGHBORING RIDGE AXES.
WILL BREAK DOWN THE HIGHLIGHTS/CONFIDENCE WITHIN THE DAILY
DISCUSSION BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...

MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW USHERS +8-10C H85 AIR INTO S NEW
ENGLAND AS THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY/DYNAMICS IS SHUNTED OFFSHORE.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WITH LIGHT WINDS SLOWLY TURNING S TOWARDS THE END
OF THE PERIOD. LOTS OF DRY AIR IN PLACE AS IT CONTINUALLY WRAPS INTO
THE OCCLUSION AS NEW ENGLAND FINDS ITSELF WITHIN THE LFQ OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL JET...A FAVORABLE REGION OF SUBSIDENCE.

WILL PREVAIL WITH SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE
SHORES. A DRY FORECAST WITH ACTIVITY HELD WELL N/W PARENT WITH THE
OCCLUSION AND BETTER COLD-POOL. PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS DURING THE
DAY WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS.

THURSDAY...

MAIN IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OCCLUSION EJECTS CYCLONICALLY OVER
THE E GREAT LAKES. EXPECT SUBSEQUENT FALLING HEIGHTS COLLOCATED WITH
STRONG ENHANCED ASCENT AND DEEP-LAYER LIFT /ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE
LFQ OF AN ATTENDANT JET STREAK/.

SHOULD SEE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ACTIVITY DEVELOP ACROSS INTERIOR NEW
ENGLAND BENEATH COOLER AIR ALOFT AND CYCLONIC FLOW. SEVERITY SHOULD
BE LIMITED LACK OF INSTABILITY WITH POOR LAPSE RATES AND ABUNDANCE
OF DRY AIR...DESPITE DECENT SW-NE UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY AWAY FROM THE SHORELINES WHICH SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ONSHORE MARITIME AIR.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...

PACIFIC-ORIGIN ENERGY ROUNDING THE BROADER TROUGH PATTERN STREAMS NE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RESOLVES A FASTER JET STREAK SUBSEQUENTLY. SHOULD SEE A
BROADSCALE REGION OF FAVORABLE ASCENT DEVELOP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.

BUT CHALLENGES PREVAIL BETWEEN LIKELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY
ACROSS INTERIOR NE-CONUS AND LINGERING OFFSHORE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
ANTICIPATING A REGION BETWEEN OF DRIER WEATHER...JUST WHERE AND HOW
IT EVOLVES ENTERTAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY.

EC/GEFS TREND WITH ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHEREAS THE
27.12Z GFS RETROGRADES THE OFFSHORE FRONT PARENT WITH A FRONTAL LOW
CONSEQUENTIAL OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC ENERGY. ALL SOLUTIONS
SHOW THE MAIN LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES LIFTING OUT OF THE REGION TO
THE NE.

SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

THOUGH PATTERN DEAMPLIFICATION IS POSSIBLE...CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS
BEHIND THE EARLIER PACIFIC IMPULSE. WILL HOLD WITH THE TYPICAL
SUMMER-TIME PATTERN OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH QUIET
WEATHER ALONG THE SHORES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

LOW CONFIDENCE THROUGH 12Z...THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS
BEYOND THAT.

CONDITIONS LOWER TO IFR/LIFR THROUGH 12Z AS FOG/LOW CLOUDS BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD. AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS LIFTING NE FROM NYC AREA
WILL REACH CT VALLEY 06Z-08Z AND E MA COAST 08Z-10Z. POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

AS THIS ACTIVITY LIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...MVFR CIGS PREVAIL BUT MANY AREAS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
BY 18Z. EXCEPTION IS ALONG S COAST WHERE IT WILL TAKE LONGER FOR
LOWER CEILINGS TO LIFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP
ACROSS INTERIOR AFTER 18Z...MAINLY IN SW NH...WESTERN/CENTRAL MA
AND N CT.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR AFTER 00Z TUE...ALTHOUGH PATCHY
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG. VFR TUE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOP AS
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS ARRIVE AFTER 08Z. FAIRLY CONFIDENT ON
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 15Z. TS SHOULD REMAIN W OF AIRPORT
18Z-22Z.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOP AS
SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVE BY 08Z. FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z. TS MOST LIKELY 18Z-22Z.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS GRADUALLY
TURNING S. SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS WITH MIX OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.
SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES.

FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. SCATTERED-WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA. MAIN FOCUS
ACROSS SE/W/CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. COULD BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY AROUND
THE BOS-PVD CORRIDOR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON NIGHT

TONIGHT...PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND TSTMS REDEVELOP
TOWARD DAYBREAK. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY
RAIN.

MONDAY...PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE MORNING BURNS OFF/ERODES BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND TSTMS TAPER OFF FOLLOWED BY A
NEW ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY BE STRONG ALONG WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SSW WINDS MAY
APPROACH 25 KT AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE.

MON NIGHT...COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS WITH A WIND SHIFT
TO THE WNW ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIGHT WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR TRANQUIL BOATING
WEATHER AS SEAS DIMINISH.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WHILE BOATING CONDITIONS REMAIN
TRANQUIL...WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...JWD
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 280045
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
845 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BY JULY STANDARDS WILL DEVELOP
OVER NY AND PA TONIGHT. ITS WARM FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS ITS ATTENDING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BY TUE THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WITH DRY
AND MUCH LESS HUMID WEATHER OVERSPREADING THE REGION AND
CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
*** WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND T-STORMS LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
 MORNING ***

845 PM UPDATE...

QUICK UPDATE TO MODIFY POPS THROUGH MIDNIGHT BASED UPON RADAR
TRENDS.

STORMS OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WERE WEAKENING AS THEY WERE
OUTRUNNING INSTABILITY AXIS. NOT MUCH IN WAY OF ACTIVITY EXPECTED
THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO AS WE AWAIT NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS
LIFTING NE FROM PA. HRRR HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON TIMING...ALTHOUGH
IT MAY BE A COUPLE OF HOURS TOO SLOW...BUT BRINGS THIS ACTIVITY
INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND 2-5 AM AND FARTHER EAST 5-8 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
*** FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE MON AFTERNOON ***

IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA MON WITH 500 MB
HEIGHTS ON THE ORDER OF -3 SD FROM CLIMO! SURFACE LOW PRES TRACKS
FROM PA/NY BORDER THEN ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND IN THE AFTERNOON.
WARM FRONTAL CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY IN THE MORNING BUT
SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY NORTHEAST AND EXIT THE REGION 12Z-15Z FROM SW TO
NE. WARM SECTOR THEN OVERSPREADS EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WITH
TEMPS RISING INTO THE 80S AND DEW PTS 65-70. THIS WILL YIELD SB
CAPES OF 1000-2000J/KG ALONG WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6-6.5C/KM
AS COOLING OCCURS ALOFT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STRONG AS WELL WITH 0-6
KM 35 TO 40 KT. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE PROVIDED BY STRONG
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IN
ADDITION LFQ OF ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE
ENHANCED QG FORCING. THE ONLY WRINKLE IS THE EXACT TIMING AND
TRAJECTORY OF THE DRY SLOT WHICH MUCH OF THE GUID SUGGEST WILL BE
OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND VCNTY. THUS THE GREATEST THREAT OF STRONG TO
SEVERE TSTMS MAY BE FROM INTERIOR CT NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST MA INCLUDING SOUTHERN NH. SPC HAS PLACED THIS REGION IN A
SEE TEXT. MAIN THREATS WILL BE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL
AND LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND
HIGH DEW PTS/LOW LCL.

MON NIGHT...

BIG IMPROVEMENT BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH MUCH LESS HUMID
AIRMASS OVERSPREADING THE REGION WITH DEW PTS FALLING INTO THE 50S!
THIS WILL SUPPORT LOW TEMPS BY TUE MORNING IN THE MU50S INLAND AND
LOW TO MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - SLIGHTLY COOL AND DRY INTO THE END OF JULY!
 - SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY
 - DECENT CHANCES FOR WET WEATHER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
 - POSSIBLE DAILY OCCURRENCES OF INTERIOR STORMS INTO NEXT WEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

INCREDIBLE PATTERN FOR MID-SUMMER! ENSEMBLE SIGNALS AVERAGING WELL-
BELOW NORMAL /-4 TO -5 SD/ FOR BOTH TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY ACROSS
THE NE CONUS AS A BUCKLED PATTERN PREVAILS WITH PREFERRED TROUGHING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES NEIGHBORED BY STRONG RIDGING. ANTICIPATING A
COOL TO SEASONABLE PATTERN LACKING OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY.

GOING DEEPER...SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE NAO/AO INDICES INTO THE EARLY-HALF
OF AUGUST AS THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD OF THE PNA EXHIBITS AN OVERALL
POSITIVE TREND SIGNALS CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE E-PACIFIC WITH
PREFERRED TROUGHING E. NO SURPRISE THAT THE NAEFS/GEFS ANALOGS ALONG
WITH THE EC-ENSEMBLE HOLD A BUCKLED PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
W-ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS STOUT. TREND OF ANOMALOUS BELOW-NORMAL
CONDITIONS PREVAILS.

THOUGH...PER AFOREMENTIONED ANALOGS/ENSEMBLES...THERE IS A POTENTIAL
TREND TOWARDS DEAMPLIFICATION. THIS RESONATES WITHIN GLOBAL FORECAST
SOLUTIONS HIGHLIGHTING A PHASE-SHIFT IN THE MJO CLIMATOLOGICALLY
RESULTING IN A MORE ZONAL PATTERN WITH WARMER TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES
OVER NORTH AMERICA. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH A CONTINUED LOW ANOMALY
OVER NE CANADA. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE.

AS TO THE FORECAST...WILL TREND WITH MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS AS
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS USHERING MUCH COOLER AIR S OUT OF
CANADA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES VARY...BUT WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES AND ACCOMPANYING JET STREAKS THROUGH THE
OVERALL TROUGH PATTERN. ITS PLAUSIBLE TO SEE PERIODS OF WET WEATHER
SHOULD THE TROUGH WOBBLE PARENT WITH ITS NEIGHBORING RIDGE AXES.
WILL BREAK DOWN THE HIGHLIGHTS/CONFIDENCE WITHIN THE DAILY
DISCUSSION BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...

MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW USHERS +8-10C H85 AIR INTO S NEW
ENGLAND AS THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY/DYNAMICS IS SHUNTED OFFSHORE.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WITH LIGHT WINDS SLOWLY TURNING S TOWARDS THE END
OF THE PERIOD. LOTS OF DRY AIR IN PLACE AS IT CONTINUALLY WRAPS INTO
THE OCCLUSION AS NEW ENGLAND FINDS ITSELF WITHIN THE LFQ OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL JET...A FAVORABLE REGION OF SUBSIDENCE.

WILL PREVAIL WITH SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE
SHORES. A DRY FORECAST WITH ACTIVITY HELD WELL N/W PARENT WITH THE
OCCLUSION AND BETTER COLD-POOL. PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS DURING THE
DAY WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS.

THURSDAY...

MAIN IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OCCLUSION EJECTS CYCLONICALLY OVER
THE E GREAT LAKES. EXPECT SUBSEQUENT FALLING HEIGHTS COLOCATED WITH
STRONG ENHANCED ASCENT AND DEEP-LAYER LIFT /ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE
LFQ OF AN ATTENDANT JET STREAK/.

SHOULD SEE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ACTIVITY DEVELOP ACROSS INTERIOR NEW
ENGLAND BENEATH COOLER AIR ALOFT AND CYCLONIC FLOW. SEVERITY SHOULD
BE LIMITED LACK OF INSTABILITY WITH POOR LAPSE RATES AND ABUNDANCE
OF DRY AIR...DESPITE DECENT SW-NE UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY AWAY FROM THE SHORELINES WHICH SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ONSHORE MARITIME AIR.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...

PACIFIC-ORIGIN ENERGY ROUNDING THE BROADER TROUGH PATTERN STREAMS NE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RESOLVES A FASTER JET STREAK SUBSEQUENTLY. SHOULD SEE A
BROADSCALE REGION OF FAVORABLE ASCENT DEVELOP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.

BUT CHALLENGES PREVAIL BETWEEN LIKELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY
ACROSS INTERIOR NE-CONUS AND LINGERING OFFSHORE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
ANTICIPATING A REGION BETWEEN OF DRIER WEATHER...JUST WHERE AND HOW
IT EVOLVES ENTERTAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY.

EC/GEFS TREND WITH ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHEREAS THE
27.12Z GFS RETROGRADES THE OFFSHORE FRONT PARENT WITH A FRONTAL LOW
CONSEQUENTIAL OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC ENERGY. ALL SOLUTIONS
SHOW THE MAIN LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES LIFTING OUT OF THE REGION TO
THE NE.

SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

THOUGH PATTERN DEAMPLIFICATION IS POSSIBLE...CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS
BEHIND THE EARLIER PACIFIC IMPULSE. WILL HOLD WITH THE TYPICAL
SUMMER-TIME PATTERN OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH QUIET
WEATHER ALONG THE SHORES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

7 PM UPDATE...

ONLY CHANGE TO 18Z TAFS WAS TO ACCOUNT FOR TSTMS VICINITY OF
BAF/BDL THRU 00Z/01Z. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. EARLIER DISCUSSION
BELOW.

================================================================

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON...THEN INCREASING CONFIDENCE MON
NIGHT.

THRU 00Z...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS EXIT EASTERN MA 3PM OR
4PM...THEN ANY NEW CONVECTION SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED IF AT ALL.
ANY LINGERING MVFR ACROSS EASTERN MA WILL IMPROVE TO LOW END VFR
BY 4 PM.

TONIGHT...MARGINAL MVFR/VFR TO START THEN LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESS AS FOG DEVELOPS. ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SHOWERS
WITH SCT TSTMS DEVELOPS 07Z-10Z FROM SW TO NE. HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS.

MONDAY...IFR/LIFR IN THE MORNING WITH SCT SHRA/TSTMS LIFTS NE INTO
ME 12Z TO 15Z FROM SW TO NE. THEN LOW END VFR MOST TERMINALS BY
AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS POSSIBLE EXPECT ACROSS RI
AND SOUTHEAST MA WHERE RISK OF SHRA/TSTMS IS MUCH LOWER. A FEW
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING WEATHER AFTER 03Z OR SO AS COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE WNW. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH AND
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 03Z OR SO.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS/STORMS JUST ABOUT OFFSHORE
AS OF 230 PM. LITTLE IF ANY NEW CONVECTION UNTIL 09Z-12Z MON.
LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR TONIGHT IN FOG...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR MON
MIDDAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE MON AFTN.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN STORMS
THRU 00Z-01Z THEN IMPROVING TO VFR. THEN CONDITIONS LOWER 06Z-09Z
TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS. HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR MON MIDDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF AFTN T-STORM POSSIBLE. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS
GRADUALLY TURNING S. SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS WITH MIX OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.
SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES.

FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. SCATTERED-WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA. MAIN FOCUS
ACROSS SE/W/CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. COULD BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY AROUND
THE BOS-PVD CORRIDOR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON NIGHT

TONIGHT...PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND TSTMS REDEVELOP
TOWARD DAYBREAK. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY
RAIN.

MONDAY...PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE MORNING BURNS OFF/ERODES BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND TSTMS TAPER OFF FOLLOWED BY A
NEW ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY BE STRONG ALONG WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SSW WINDS MAY
APPROACH 25 KT AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE.

MON NIGHT...COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS WITH A WIND SHIFT
TO THE WNW ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIGHT WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR TRANQUIL BOATING
WEATHER AS SEAS DIMINISH.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WHILE BOATING CONDITIONS REMAIN
TRANQUIL...WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
OUR DOPPLER RADAR IS DOWN. A TECHNICIAN IS ON THE WAY IN. WE
APOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ235-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
EQUIPMENT...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 280045
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
845 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BY JULY STANDARDS WILL DEVELOP
OVER NY AND PA TONIGHT. ITS WARM FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS ITS ATTENDING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BY TUE THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WITH DRY
AND MUCH LESS HUMID WEATHER OVERSPREADING THE REGION AND
CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
*** WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND T-STORMS LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
 MORNING ***

845 PM UPDATE...

QUICK UPDATE TO MODIFY POPS THROUGH MIDNIGHT BASED UPON RADAR
TRENDS.

STORMS OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WERE WEAKENING AS THEY WERE
OUTRUNNING INSTABILITY AXIS. NOT MUCH IN WAY OF ACTIVITY EXPECTED
THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO AS WE AWAIT NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS
LIFTING NE FROM PA. HRRR HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON TIMING...ALTHOUGH
IT MAY BE A COUPLE OF HOURS TOO SLOW...BUT BRINGS THIS ACTIVITY
INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND 2-5 AM AND FARTHER EAST 5-8 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
*** FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE MON AFTERNOON ***

IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA MON WITH 500 MB
HEIGHTS ON THE ORDER OF -3 SD FROM CLIMO! SURFACE LOW PRES TRACKS
FROM PA/NY BORDER THEN ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND IN THE AFTERNOON.
WARM FRONTAL CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY IN THE MORNING BUT
SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY NORTHEAST AND EXIT THE REGION 12Z-15Z FROM SW TO
NE. WARM SECTOR THEN OVERSPREADS EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WITH
TEMPS RISING INTO THE 80S AND DEW PTS 65-70. THIS WILL YIELD SB
CAPES OF 1000-2000J/KG ALONG WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6-6.5C/KM
AS COOLING OCCURS ALOFT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STRONG AS WELL WITH 0-6
KM 35 TO 40 KT. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE PROVIDED BY STRONG
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IN
ADDITION LFQ OF ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE
ENHANCED QG FORCING. THE ONLY WRINKLE IS THE EXACT TIMING AND
TRAJECTORY OF THE DRY SLOT WHICH MUCH OF THE GUID SUGGEST WILL BE
OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND VCNTY. THUS THE GREATEST THREAT OF STRONG TO
SEVERE TSTMS MAY BE FROM INTERIOR CT NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST MA INCLUDING SOUTHERN NH. SPC HAS PLACED THIS REGION IN A
SEE TEXT. MAIN THREATS WILL BE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL
AND LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND
HIGH DEW PTS/LOW LCL.

MON NIGHT...

BIG IMPROVEMENT BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH MUCH LESS HUMID
AIRMASS OVERSPREADING THE REGION WITH DEW PTS FALLING INTO THE 50S!
THIS WILL SUPPORT LOW TEMPS BY TUE MORNING IN THE MU50S INLAND AND
LOW TO MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - SLIGHTLY COOL AND DRY INTO THE END OF JULY!
 - SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY
 - DECENT CHANCES FOR WET WEATHER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
 - POSSIBLE DAILY OCCURRENCES OF INTERIOR STORMS INTO NEXT WEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

INCREDIBLE PATTERN FOR MID-SUMMER! ENSEMBLE SIGNALS AVERAGING WELL-
BELOW NORMAL /-4 TO -5 SD/ FOR BOTH TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY ACROSS
THE NE CONUS AS A BUCKLED PATTERN PREVAILS WITH PREFERRED TROUGHING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES NEIGHBORED BY STRONG RIDGING. ANTICIPATING A
COOL TO SEASONABLE PATTERN LACKING OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY.

GOING DEEPER...SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE NAO/AO INDICES INTO THE EARLY-HALF
OF AUGUST AS THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD OF THE PNA EXHIBITS AN OVERALL
POSITIVE TREND SIGNALS CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE E-PACIFIC WITH
PREFERRED TROUGHING E. NO SURPRISE THAT THE NAEFS/GEFS ANALOGS ALONG
WITH THE EC-ENSEMBLE HOLD A BUCKLED PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
W-ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS STOUT. TREND OF ANOMALOUS BELOW-NORMAL
CONDITIONS PREVAILS.

THOUGH...PER AFOREMENTIONED ANALOGS/ENSEMBLES...THERE IS A POTENTIAL
TREND TOWARDS DEAMPLIFICATION. THIS RESONATES WITHIN GLOBAL FORECAST
SOLUTIONS HIGHLIGHTING A PHASE-SHIFT IN THE MJO CLIMATOLOGICALLY
RESULTING IN A MORE ZONAL PATTERN WITH WARMER TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES
OVER NORTH AMERICA. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH A CONTINUED LOW ANOMALY
OVER NE CANADA. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE.

AS TO THE FORECAST...WILL TREND WITH MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS AS
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS USHERING MUCH COOLER AIR S OUT OF
CANADA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES VARY...BUT WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES AND ACCOMPANYING JET STREAKS THROUGH THE
OVERALL TROUGH PATTERN. ITS PLAUSIBLE TO SEE PERIODS OF WET WEATHER
SHOULD THE TROUGH WOBBLE PARENT WITH ITS NEIGHBORING RIDGE AXES.
WILL BREAK DOWN THE HIGHLIGHTS/CONFIDENCE WITHIN THE DAILY
DISCUSSION BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...

MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW USHERS +8-10C H85 AIR INTO S NEW
ENGLAND AS THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY/DYNAMICS IS SHUNTED OFFSHORE.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WITH LIGHT WINDS SLOWLY TURNING S TOWARDS THE END
OF THE PERIOD. LOTS OF DRY AIR IN PLACE AS IT CONTINUALLY WRAPS INTO
THE OCCLUSION AS NEW ENGLAND FINDS ITSELF WITHIN THE LFQ OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL JET...A FAVORABLE REGION OF SUBSIDENCE.

WILL PREVAIL WITH SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE
SHORES. A DRY FORECAST WITH ACTIVITY HELD WELL N/W PARENT WITH THE
OCCLUSION AND BETTER COLD-POOL. PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS DURING THE
DAY WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS.

THURSDAY...

MAIN IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OCCLUSION EJECTS CYCLONICALLY OVER
THE E GREAT LAKES. EXPECT SUBSEQUENT FALLING HEIGHTS COLOCATED WITH
STRONG ENHANCED ASCENT AND DEEP-LAYER LIFT /ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE
LFQ OF AN ATTENDANT JET STREAK/.

SHOULD SEE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ACTIVITY DEVELOP ACROSS INTERIOR NEW
ENGLAND BENEATH COOLER AIR ALOFT AND CYCLONIC FLOW. SEVERITY SHOULD
BE LIMITED LACK OF INSTABILITY WITH POOR LAPSE RATES AND ABUNDANCE
OF DRY AIR...DESPITE DECENT SW-NE UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY AWAY FROM THE SHORELINES WHICH SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ONSHORE MARITIME AIR.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...

PACIFIC-ORIGIN ENERGY ROUNDING THE BROADER TROUGH PATTERN STREAMS NE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RESOLVES A FASTER JET STREAK SUBSEQUENTLY. SHOULD SEE A
BROADSCALE REGION OF FAVORABLE ASCENT DEVELOP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.

BUT CHALLENGES PREVAIL BETWEEN LIKELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY
ACROSS INTERIOR NE-CONUS AND LINGERING OFFSHORE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
ANTICIPATING A REGION BETWEEN OF DRIER WEATHER...JUST WHERE AND HOW
IT EVOLVES ENTERTAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY.

EC/GEFS TREND WITH ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHEREAS THE
27.12Z GFS RETROGRADES THE OFFSHORE FRONT PARENT WITH A FRONTAL LOW
CONSEQUENTIAL OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC ENERGY. ALL SOLUTIONS
SHOW THE MAIN LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES LIFTING OUT OF THE REGION TO
THE NE.

SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

THOUGH PATTERN DEAMPLIFICATION IS POSSIBLE...CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS
BEHIND THE EARLIER PACIFIC IMPULSE. WILL HOLD WITH THE TYPICAL
SUMMER-TIME PATTERN OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH QUIET
WEATHER ALONG THE SHORES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

7 PM UPDATE...

ONLY CHANGE TO 18Z TAFS WAS TO ACCOUNT FOR TSTMS VICINITY OF
BAF/BDL THRU 00Z/01Z. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. EARLIER DISCUSSION
BELOW.

================================================================

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON...THEN INCREASING CONFIDENCE MON
NIGHT.

THRU 00Z...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS EXIT EASTERN MA 3PM OR
4PM...THEN ANY NEW CONVECTION SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED IF AT ALL.
ANY LINGERING MVFR ACROSS EASTERN MA WILL IMPROVE TO LOW END VFR
BY 4 PM.

TONIGHT...MARGINAL MVFR/VFR TO START THEN LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESS AS FOG DEVELOPS. ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SHOWERS
WITH SCT TSTMS DEVELOPS 07Z-10Z FROM SW TO NE. HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS.

MONDAY...IFR/LIFR IN THE MORNING WITH SCT SHRA/TSTMS LIFTS NE INTO
ME 12Z TO 15Z FROM SW TO NE. THEN LOW END VFR MOST TERMINALS BY
AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS POSSIBLE EXPECT ACROSS RI
AND SOUTHEAST MA WHERE RISK OF SHRA/TSTMS IS MUCH LOWER. A FEW
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING WEATHER AFTER 03Z OR SO AS COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE WNW. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH AND
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 03Z OR SO.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS/STORMS JUST ABOUT OFFSHORE
AS OF 230 PM. LITTLE IF ANY NEW CONVECTION UNTIL 09Z-12Z MON.
LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR TONIGHT IN FOG...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR MON
MIDDAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE MON AFTN.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN STORMS
THRU 00Z-01Z THEN IMPROVING TO VFR. THEN CONDITIONS LOWER 06Z-09Z
TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS. HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR MON MIDDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF AFTN T-STORM POSSIBLE. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS
GRADUALLY TURNING S. SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS WITH MIX OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.
SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES.

FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. SCATTERED-WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA. MAIN FOCUS
ACROSS SE/W/CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. COULD BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY AROUND
THE BOS-PVD CORRIDOR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON NIGHT

TONIGHT...PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND TSTMS REDEVELOP
TOWARD DAYBREAK. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY
RAIN.

MONDAY...PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE MORNING BURNS OFF/ERODES BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND TSTMS TAPER OFF FOLLOWED BY A
NEW ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY BE STRONG ALONG WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SSW WINDS MAY
APPROACH 25 KT AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE.

MON NIGHT...COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS WITH A WIND SHIFT
TO THE WNW ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIGHT WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR TRANQUIL BOATING
WEATHER AS SEAS DIMINISH.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WHILE BOATING CONDITIONS REMAIN
TRANQUIL...WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
OUR DOPPLER RADAR IS DOWN. A TECHNICIAN IS ON THE WAY IN. WE
APOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ235-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
EQUIPMENT...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 280045
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
845 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BY JULY STANDARDS WILL DEVELOP
OVER NY AND PA TONIGHT. ITS WARM FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS ITS ATTENDING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BY TUE THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WITH DRY
AND MUCH LESS HUMID WEATHER OVERSPREADING THE REGION AND
CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
*** WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND T-STORMS LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
 MORNING ***

845 PM UPDATE...

QUICK UPDATE TO MODIFY POPS THROUGH MIDNIGHT BASED UPON RADAR
TRENDS.

STORMS OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WERE WEAKENING AS THEY WERE
OUTRUNNING INSTABILITY AXIS. NOT MUCH IN WAY OF ACTIVITY EXPECTED
THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO AS WE AWAIT NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS
LIFTING NE FROM PA. HRRR HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON TIMING...ALTHOUGH
IT MAY BE A COUPLE OF HOURS TOO SLOW...BUT BRINGS THIS ACTIVITY
INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND 2-5 AM AND FARTHER EAST 5-8 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
*** FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE MON AFTERNOON ***

IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA MON WITH 500 MB
HEIGHTS ON THE ORDER OF -3 SD FROM CLIMO! SURFACE LOW PRES TRACKS
FROM PA/NY BORDER THEN ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND IN THE AFTERNOON.
WARM FRONTAL CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY IN THE MORNING BUT
SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY NORTHEAST AND EXIT THE REGION 12Z-15Z FROM SW TO
NE. WARM SECTOR THEN OVERSPREADS EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WITH
TEMPS RISING INTO THE 80S AND DEW PTS 65-70. THIS WILL YIELD SB
CAPES OF 1000-2000J/KG ALONG WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6-6.5C/KM
AS COOLING OCCURS ALOFT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STRONG AS WELL WITH 0-6
KM 35 TO 40 KT. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE PROVIDED BY STRONG
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IN
ADDITION LFQ OF ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE
ENHANCED QG FORCING. THE ONLY WRINKLE IS THE EXACT TIMING AND
TRAJECTORY OF THE DRY SLOT WHICH MUCH OF THE GUID SUGGEST WILL BE
OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND VCNTY. THUS THE GREATEST THREAT OF STRONG TO
SEVERE TSTMS MAY BE FROM INTERIOR CT NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST MA INCLUDING SOUTHERN NH. SPC HAS PLACED THIS REGION IN A
SEE TEXT. MAIN THREATS WILL BE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL
AND LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND
HIGH DEW PTS/LOW LCL.

MON NIGHT...

BIG IMPROVEMENT BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH MUCH LESS HUMID
AIRMASS OVERSPREADING THE REGION WITH DEW PTS FALLING INTO THE 50S!
THIS WILL SUPPORT LOW TEMPS BY TUE MORNING IN THE MU50S INLAND AND
LOW TO MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - SLIGHTLY COOL AND DRY INTO THE END OF JULY!
 - SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY
 - DECENT CHANCES FOR WET WEATHER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
 - POSSIBLE DAILY OCCURRENCES OF INTERIOR STORMS INTO NEXT WEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

INCREDIBLE PATTERN FOR MID-SUMMER! ENSEMBLE SIGNALS AVERAGING WELL-
BELOW NORMAL /-4 TO -5 SD/ FOR BOTH TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY ACROSS
THE NE CONUS AS A BUCKLED PATTERN PREVAILS WITH PREFERRED TROUGHING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES NEIGHBORED BY STRONG RIDGING. ANTICIPATING A
COOL TO SEASONABLE PATTERN LACKING OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY.

GOING DEEPER...SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE NAO/AO INDICES INTO THE EARLY-HALF
OF AUGUST AS THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD OF THE PNA EXHIBITS AN OVERALL
POSITIVE TREND SIGNALS CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE E-PACIFIC WITH
PREFERRED TROUGHING E. NO SURPRISE THAT THE NAEFS/GEFS ANALOGS ALONG
WITH THE EC-ENSEMBLE HOLD A BUCKLED PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
W-ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS STOUT. TREND OF ANOMALOUS BELOW-NORMAL
CONDITIONS PREVAILS.

THOUGH...PER AFOREMENTIONED ANALOGS/ENSEMBLES...THERE IS A POTENTIAL
TREND TOWARDS DEAMPLIFICATION. THIS RESONATES WITHIN GLOBAL FORECAST
SOLUTIONS HIGHLIGHTING A PHASE-SHIFT IN THE MJO CLIMATOLOGICALLY
RESULTING IN A MORE ZONAL PATTERN WITH WARMER TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES
OVER NORTH AMERICA. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH A CONTINUED LOW ANOMALY
OVER NE CANADA. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE.

AS TO THE FORECAST...WILL TREND WITH MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS AS
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS USHERING MUCH COOLER AIR S OUT OF
CANADA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES VARY...BUT WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES AND ACCOMPANYING JET STREAKS THROUGH THE
OVERALL TROUGH PATTERN. ITS PLAUSIBLE TO SEE PERIODS OF WET WEATHER
SHOULD THE TROUGH WOBBLE PARENT WITH ITS NEIGHBORING RIDGE AXES.
WILL BREAK DOWN THE HIGHLIGHTS/CONFIDENCE WITHIN THE DAILY
DISCUSSION BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...

MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW USHERS +8-10C H85 AIR INTO S NEW
ENGLAND AS THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY/DYNAMICS IS SHUNTED OFFSHORE.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WITH LIGHT WINDS SLOWLY TURNING S TOWARDS THE END
OF THE PERIOD. LOTS OF DRY AIR IN PLACE AS IT CONTINUALLY WRAPS INTO
THE OCCLUSION AS NEW ENGLAND FINDS ITSELF WITHIN THE LFQ OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL JET...A FAVORABLE REGION OF SUBSIDENCE.

WILL PREVAIL WITH SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE
SHORES. A DRY FORECAST WITH ACTIVITY HELD WELL N/W PARENT WITH THE
OCCLUSION AND BETTER COLD-POOL. PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS DURING THE
DAY WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS.

THURSDAY...

MAIN IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OCCLUSION EJECTS CYCLONICALLY OVER
THE E GREAT LAKES. EXPECT SUBSEQUENT FALLING HEIGHTS COLOCATED WITH
STRONG ENHANCED ASCENT AND DEEP-LAYER LIFT /ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE
LFQ OF AN ATTENDANT JET STREAK/.

SHOULD SEE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ACTIVITY DEVELOP ACROSS INTERIOR NEW
ENGLAND BENEATH COOLER AIR ALOFT AND CYCLONIC FLOW. SEVERITY SHOULD
BE LIMITED LACK OF INSTABILITY WITH POOR LAPSE RATES AND ABUNDANCE
OF DRY AIR...DESPITE DECENT SW-NE UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY AWAY FROM THE SHORELINES WHICH SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ONSHORE MARITIME AIR.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...

PACIFIC-ORIGIN ENERGY ROUNDING THE BROADER TROUGH PATTERN STREAMS NE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RESOLVES A FASTER JET STREAK SUBSEQUENTLY. SHOULD SEE A
BROADSCALE REGION OF FAVORABLE ASCENT DEVELOP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.

BUT CHALLENGES PREVAIL BETWEEN LIKELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY
ACROSS INTERIOR NE-CONUS AND LINGERING OFFSHORE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
ANTICIPATING A REGION BETWEEN OF DRIER WEATHER...JUST WHERE AND HOW
IT EVOLVES ENTERTAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY.

EC/GEFS TREND WITH ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHEREAS THE
27.12Z GFS RETROGRADES THE OFFSHORE FRONT PARENT WITH A FRONTAL LOW
CONSEQUENTIAL OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC ENERGY. ALL SOLUTIONS
SHOW THE MAIN LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES LIFTING OUT OF THE REGION TO
THE NE.

SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

THOUGH PATTERN DEAMPLIFICATION IS POSSIBLE...CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS
BEHIND THE EARLIER PACIFIC IMPULSE. WILL HOLD WITH THE TYPICAL
SUMMER-TIME PATTERN OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH QUIET
WEATHER ALONG THE SHORES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

7 PM UPDATE...

ONLY CHANGE TO 18Z TAFS WAS TO ACCOUNT FOR TSTMS VICINITY OF
BAF/BDL THRU 00Z/01Z. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. EARLIER DISCUSSION
BELOW.

================================================================

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON...THEN INCREASING CONFIDENCE MON
NIGHT.

THRU 00Z...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS EXIT EASTERN MA 3PM OR
4PM...THEN ANY NEW CONVECTION SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED IF AT ALL.
ANY LINGERING MVFR ACROSS EASTERN MA WILL IMPROVE TO LOW END VFR
BY 4 PM.

TONIGHT...MARGINAL MVFR/VFR TO START THEN LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESS AS FOG DEVELOPS. ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SHOWERS
WITH SCT TSTMS DEVELOPS 07Z-10Z FROM SW TO NE. HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS.

MONDAY...IFR/LIFR IN THE MORNING WITH SCT SHRA/TSTMS LIFTS NE INTO
ME 12Z TO 15Z FROM SW TO NE. THEN LOW END VFR MOST TERMINALS BY
AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS POSSIBLE EXPECT ACROSS RI
AND SOUTHEAST MA WHERE RISK OF SHRA/TSTMS IS MUCH LOWER. A FEW
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING WEATHER AFTER 03Z OR SO AS COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE WNW. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH AND
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 03Z OR SO.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS/STORMS JUST ABOUT OFFSHORE
AS OF 230 PM. LITTLE IF ANY NEW CONVECTION UNTIL 09Z-12Z MON.
LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR TONIGHT IN FOG...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR MON
MIDDAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE MON AFTN.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN STORMS
THRU 00Z-01Z THEN IMPROVING TO VFR. THEN CONDITIONS LOWER 06Z-09Z
TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS. HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR MON MIDDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF AFTN T-STORM POSSIBLE. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS
GRADUALLY TURNING S. SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS WITH MIX OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.
SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES.

FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. SCATTERED-WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA. MAIN FOCUS
ACROSS SE/W/CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. COULD BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY AROUND
THE BOS-PVD CORRIDOR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON NIGHT

TONIGHT...PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND TSTMS REDEVELOP
TOWARD DAYBREAK. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY
RAIN.

MONDAY...PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE MORNING BURNS OFF/ERODES BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND TSTMS TAPER OFF FOLLOWED BY A
NEW ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY BE STRONG ALONG WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SSW WINDS MAY
APPROACH 25 KT AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE.

MON NIGHT...COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS WITH A WIND SHIFT
TO THE WNW ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIGHT WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR TRANQUIL BOATING
WEATHER AS SEAS DIMINISH.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WHILE BOATING CONDITIONS REMAIN
TRANQUIL...WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
OUR DOPPLER RADAR IS DOWN. A TECHNICIAN IS ON THE WAY IN. WE
APOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ235-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
EQUIPMENT...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 280045
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
845 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BY JULY STANDARDS WILL DEVELOP
OVER NY AND PA TONIGHT. ITS WARM FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS ITS ATTENDING COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BY TUE THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WITH DRY
AND MUCH LESS HUMID WEATHER OVERSPREADING THE REGION AND
CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
*** WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND T-STORMS LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
 MORNING ***

845 PM UPDATE...

QUICK UPDATE TO MODIFY POPS THROUGH MIDNIGHT BASED UPON RADAR
TRENDS.

STORMS OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WERE WEAKENING AS THEY WERE
OUTRUNNING INSTABILITY AXIS. NOT MUCH IN WAY OF ACTIVITY EXPECTED
THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO AS WE AWAIT NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS
LIFTING NE FROM PA. HRRR HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON TIMING...ALTHOUGH
IT MAY BE A COUPLE OF HOURS TOO SLOW...BUT BRINGS THIS ACTIVITY
INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND 2-5 AM AND FARTHER EAST 5-8 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
*** FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE MON AFTERNOON ***

IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA MON WITH 500 MB
HEIGHTS ON THE ORDER OF -3 SD FROM CLIMO! SURFACE LOW PRES TRACKS
FROM PA/NY BORDER THEN ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND IN THE AFTERNOON.
WARM FRONTAL CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY IN THE MORNING BUT
SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY NORTHEAST AND EXIT THE REGION 12Z-15Z FROM SW TO
NE. WARM SECTOR THEN OVERSPREADS EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WITH
TEMPS RISING INTO THE 80S AND DEW PTS 65-70. THIS WILL YIELD SB
CAPES OF 1000-2000J/KG ALONG WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6-6.5C/KM
AS COOLING OCCURS ALOFT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STRONG AS WELL WITH 0-6
KM 35 TO 40 KT. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE PROVIDED BY STRONG
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IN
ADDITION LFQ OF ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE
ENHANCED QG FORCING. THE ONLY WRINKLE IS THE EXACT TIMING AND
TRAJECTORY OF THE DRY SLOT WHICH MUCH OF THE GUID SUGGEST WILL BE
OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND VCNTY. THUS THE GREATEST THREAT OF STRONG TO
SEVERE TSTMS MAY BE FROM INTERIOR CT NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST MA INCLUDING SOUTHERN NH. SPC HAS PLACED THIS REGION IN A
SEE TEXT. MAIN THREATS WILL BE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL
AND LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND
HIGH DEW PTS/LOW LCL.

MON NIGHT...

BIG IMPROVEMENT BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH MUCH LESS HUMID
AIRMASS OVERSPREADING THE REGION WITH DEW PTS FALLING INTO THE 50S!
THIS WILL SUPPORT LOW TEMPS BY TUE MORNING IN THE MU50S INLAND AND
LOW TO MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - SLIGHTLY COOL AND DRY INTO THE END OF JULY!
 - SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY
 - DECENT CHANCES FOR WET WEATHER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
 - POSSIBLE DAILY OCCURRENCES OF INTERIOR STORMS INTO NEXT WEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

INCREDIBLE PATTERN FOR MID-SUMMER! ENSEMBLE SIGNALS AVERAGING WELL-
BELOW NORMAL /-4 TO -5 SD/ FOR BOTH TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY ACROSS
THE NE CONUS AS A BUCKLED PATTERN PREVAILS WITH PREFERRED TROUGHING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES NEIGHBORED BY STRONG RIDGING. ANTICIPATING A
COOL TO SEASONABLE PATTERN LACKING OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY.

GOING DEEPER...SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE NAO/AO INDICES INTO THE EARLY-HALF
OF AUGUST AS THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD OF THE PNA EXHIBITS AN OVERALL
POSITIVE TREND SIGNALS CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE E-PACIFIC WITH
PREFERRED TROUGHING E. NO SURPRISE THAT THE NAEFS/GEFS ANALOGS ALONG
WITH THE EC-ENSEMBLE HOLD A BUCKLED PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
W-ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS STOUT. TREND OF ANOMALOUS BELOW-NORMAL
CONDITIONS PREVAILS.

THOUGH...PER AFOREMENTIONED ANALOGS/ENSEMBLES...THERE IS A POTENTIAL
TREND TOWARDS DEAMPLIFICATION. THIS RESONATES WITHIN GLOBAL FORECAST
SOLUTIONS HIGHLIGHTING A PHASE-SHIFT IN THE MJO CLIMATOLOGICALLY
RESULTING IN A MORE ZONAL PATTERN WITH WARMER TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES
OVER NORTH AMERICA. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH A CONTINUED LOW ANOMALY
OVER NE CANADA. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE.

AS TO THE FORECAST...WILL TREND WITH MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS AS
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS USHERING MUCH COOLER AIR S OUT OF
CANADA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES VARY...BUT WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES AND ACCOMPANYING JET STREAKS THROUGH THE
OVERALL TROUGH PATTERN. ITS PLAUSIBLE TO SEE PERIODS OF WET WEATHER
SHOULD THE TROUGH WOBBLE PARENT WITH ITS NEIGHBORING RIDGE AXES.
WILL BREAK DOWN THE HIGHLIGHTS/CONFIDENCE WITHIN THE DAILY
DISCUSSION BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...

MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW USHERS +8-10C H85 AIR INTO S NEW
ENGLAND AS THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY/DYNAMICS IS SHUNTED OFFSHORE.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WITH LIGHT WINDS SLOWLY TURNING S TOWARDS THE END
OF THE PERIOD. LOTS OF DRY AIR IN PLACE AS IT CONTINUALLY WRAPS INTO
THE OCCLUSION AS NEW ENGLAND FINDS ITSELF WITHIN THE LFQ OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL JET...A FAVORABLE REGION OF SUBSIDENCE.

WILL PREVAIL WITH SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE
SHORES. A DRY FORECAST WITH ACTIVITY HELD WELL N/W PARENT WITH THE
OCCLUSION AND BETTER COLD-POOL. PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS DURING THE
DAY WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS.

THURSDAY...

MAIN IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OCCLUSION EJECTS CYCLONICALLY OVER
THE E GREAT LAKES. EXPECT SUBSEQUENT FALLING HEIGHTS COLOCATED WITH
STRONG ENHANCED ASCENT AND DEEP-LAYER LIFT /ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE
LFQ OF AN ATTENDANT JET STREAK/.

SHOULD SEE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ACTIVITY DEVELOP ACROSS INTERIOR NEW
ENGLAND BENEATH COOLER AIR ALOFT AND CYCLONIC FLOW. SEVERITY SHOULD
BE LIMITED LACK OF INSTABILITY WITH POOR LAPSE RATES AND ABUNDANCE
OF DRY AIR...DESPITE DECENT SW-NE UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY AWAY FROM THE SHORELINES WHICH SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ONSHORE MARITIME AIR.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...

PACIFIC-ORIGIN ENERGY ROUNDING THE BROADER TROUGH PATTERN STREAMS NE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RESOLVES A FASTER JET STREAK SUBSEQUENTLY. SHOULD SEE A
BROADSCALE REGION OF FAVORABLE ASCENT DEVELOP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.

BUT CHALLENGES PREVAIL BETWEEN LIKELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY
ACROSS INTERIOR NE-CONUS AND LINGERING OFFSHORE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
ANTICIPATING A REGION BETWEEN OF DRIER WEATHER...JUST WHERE AND HOW
IT EVOLVES ENTERTAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY.

EC/GEFS TREND WITH ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHEREAS THE
27.12Z GFS RETROGRADES THE OFFSHORE FRONT PARENT WITH A FRONTAL LOW
CONSEQUENTIAL OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC ENERGY. ALL SOLUTIONS
SHOW THE MAIN LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES LIFTING OUT OF THE REGION TO
THE NE.

SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

THOUGH PATTERN DEAMPLIFICATION IS POSSIBLE...CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS
BEHIND THE EARLIER PACIFIC IMPULSE. WILL HOLD WITH THE TYPICAL
SUMMER-TIME PATTERN OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH QUIET
WEATHER ALONG THE SHORES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

7 PM UPDATE...

ONLY CHANGE TO 18Z TAFS WAS TO ACCOUNT FOR TSTMS VICINITY OF
BAF/BDL THRU 00Z/01Z. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. EARLIER DISCUSSION
BELOW.

================================================================

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON...THEN INCREASING CONFIDENCE MON
NIGHT.

THRU 00Z...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS EXIT EASTERN MA 3PM OR
4PM...THEN ANY NEW CONVECTION SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED IF AT ALL.
ANY LINGERING MVFR ACROSS EASTERN MA WILL IMPROVE TO LOW END VFR
BY 4 PM.

TONIGHT...MARGINAL MVFR/VFR TO START THEN LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESS AS FOG DEVELOPS. ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SHOWERS
WITH SCT TSTMS DEVELOPS 07Z-10Z FROM SW TO NE. HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS.

MONDAY...IFR/LIFR IN THE MORNING WITH SCT SHRA/TSTMS LIFTS NE INTO
ME 12Z TO 15Z FROM SW TO NE. THEN LOW END VFR MOST TERMINALS BY
AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS POSSIBLE EXPECT ACROSS RI
AND SOUTHEAST MA WHERE RISK OF SHRA/TSTMS IS MUCH LOWER. A FEW
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING WEATHER AFTER 03Z OR SO AS COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE WNW. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH AND
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 03Z OR SO.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS/STORMS JUST ABOUT OFFSHORE
AS OF 230 PM. LITTLE IF ANY NEW CONVECTION UNTIL 09Z-12Z MON.
LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR TONIGHT IN FOG...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR MON
MIDDAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE MON AFTN.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN STORMS
THRU 00Z-01Z THEN IMPROVING TO VFR. THEN CONDITIONS LOWER 06Z-09Z
TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS. HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR MON MIDDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF AFTN T-STORM POSSIBLE. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS
GRADUALLY TURNING S. SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS WITH MIX OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.
SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES.

FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. SCATTERED-WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA. MAIN FOCUS
ACROSS SE/W/CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. COULD BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY AROUND
THE BOS-PVD CORRIDOR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON NIGHT

TONIGHT...PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND TSTMS REDEVELOP
TOWARD DAYBREAK. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY
RAIN.

MONDAY...PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE MORNING BURNS OFF/ERODES BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND TSTMS TAPER OFF FOLLOWED BY A
NEW ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY BE STRONG ALONG WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SSW WINDS MAY
APPROACH 25 KT AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE.

MON NIGHT...COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS WITH A WIND SHIFT
TO THE WNW ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIGHT WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR TRANQUIL BOATING
WEATHER AS SEAS DIMINISH.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WHILE BOATING CONDITIONS REMAIN
TRANQUIL...WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
OUR DOPPLER RADAR IS DOWN. A TECHNICIAN IS ON THE WAY IN. WE
APOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ235-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
EQUIPMENT...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 272303
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
703 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BY JULY STANDARDS WILL DEVELOP
OVER NY AND PA TONIGHT. ITS WARM FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY MORNING TO THE REGION FOLLOWED BY
POSSIBLE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON TO THE AREA AS ITS
ATTENDING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BY TUE THE FRONT
MOVES OFFSHORE WITH DRY AND MUCH LESS HUMID WEATHER OVERSPREADING
THE REGION AND CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

*** WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND T-STORMS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO
 MONDAY MORNING ***

7 PM UPDATE...

STILL MONITORING CONVECTION OVER WESTERN MA VICINITY OF
SPRINGFIELD. STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS...LARGE
HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEAST INTO CT WHERE TEMPS REMAIN IN THE L80S WITH DEW PTS IN
THE U60S/L70S. THIS YIELDS ML CAPES OF AROUND 1500J/KG. STORMS
WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY WITH SUNSET HOWEVER MAY PERSIST A WHILE LONGER
GIVEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35 KT AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF
6-6.5C/KM.

OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY. THEN LATER
TONIGHT OUR ATTENTION SHIFTS TO CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN
PA ASSOCIATED WITH ANOMALOUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DEVELOPING
LOW PRES AND ATTENDING WARM FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL REACH CT AND
WESTERN MA BETWEEN 06Z-09Z THEN THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION 09Z-
12Z. HEAVY RAIN AND A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
NEXT ROUND. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

ANOMALOUS POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BRING A ROUND OF HEAVY SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE TONIGHT
INTO MON MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A SECOND ROUND OF T-STORMS /POSSIBLY
STRONG TO SEVERE/ MON AFTERNOON.

AS FOR THIS EVENING...WARM FRONTAL CONVECTION HAS MOVED OFFSHORE AS
OF MID AFTERNOON. SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES MUCH DRIER MID LEVEL
AIR OVER NY AND PA ADVECTING EASTWARD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS DRIER AIR IS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NY STATE AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. UNTIL THIS
MLVL TROUGH EXITS EAST OF THE AREA THERE IS THE RISK OF AN ISOLATED
TSTM WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS WESTERN CT/MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH.
ELSEWHERE DRY AND HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. GIVEN THE HIGH
DEW PT/THETA-E AIRMASS OVER THE REGION...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD
DEVELOP AFTER SUNSET AS THE BLYR COOLS.

OVERNIGHT...INITIAL SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD
KEEP SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRY THROUGH ABOUT 06Z/2AM. THEREAFTER
POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS FEATURE INDUCES CYCLOGENESIS OVER PA/NY STATE. A
BAND OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP/CONVECTION WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z FROM SW TO NE. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND A FEW OF THE
STRONGER STORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AS MUCH OF THE MDL GUID
INDICATES 500-1000 J/KG OF CAPE TOWARD 12Z. HOWEVER THE GREATEST
RISK IS ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. THINK RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING IS LOW GIVEN HOW QUICKLY SYSTEM IS MOVING AND PWATS ARE
ONLY +1 SD ABOVE CLIMO. NEVERTHELESS HEAVY SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY IMPACT
THE MORNING COMMUTE.

IT WILL BE A WARM AND MUGGY WITH DEW PTS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
*** FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE MON AFTERNOON ***

IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA MON WITH 500 MB
HEIGHTS ON THE ORDER OF -3 SD FROM CLIMO! SURFACE LOW PRES TRACKS
FROM PA/NY BORDER THEN ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND IN THE AFTERNOON.
WARM FRONTAL CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY IN THE MORNING BUT
SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY NORTHEAST AND EXIT THE REGION 12Z-15Z FROM SW TO
NE. WARM SECTOR THEN OVERSPREADS EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WITH
TEMPS RISING INTO THE 80S AND DEW PTS 65-70. THIS WILL YIELD SB
CAPES OF 1000-2000J/KG ALONG WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6-6.5C/KM
AS COOLING OCCURS ALOFT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STRONG AS WELL WITH 0-6
KM 35 TO 40 KT. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE PROVIDED BY STRONG
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IN
ADDITION LFQ OF ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE
ENHANCED QG FORCING. THE ONLY WRINKLE IS THE EXACT TIMING AND
TRAJECTORY OF THE DRY SLOT WHICH MUCH OF THE GUID SUGGEST WILL BE
OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND VCNTY. THUS THE GREATEST THREAT OF STRONG TO
SEVERE TSTMS MAY BE FROM INTERIOR CT NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST MA INCLUDING SOUTHERN NH. SPC HAS PLACED THIS REGION IN A
SEE TEXT. MAIN THREATS WILL BE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL
AND LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND
HIGH DEW PTS/LOW LCL.

MON NIGHT...

BIG IMPROVEMENT BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH MUCH LESS HUMID
AIRMASS OVERSPREADING THE REGION WITH DEW PTS FALLING INTO THE 50S!
THIS WILL SUPPORT LOW TEMPS BY TUE MORNING IN THE MU50S INLAND AND
LOW TO MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - SLIGHTLY COOL AND DRY INTO THE END OF JULY!
 - SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY
 - DECENT CHANCES FOR WET WEATHER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
 - POSSIBLE DAILY OCCURRENCES OF INTERIOR STORMS INTO NEXT WEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

INCREDIBLE PATTERN FOR MID-SUMMER! ENSEMBLE SIGNALS AVERAGING WELL-
BELOW NORMAL /-4 TO -5 SD/ FOR BOTH TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY ACROSS
THE NE CONUS AS A BUCKLED PATTERN PREVAILS WITH PREFERRED TROUGHING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES NEIGHBORED BY STRONG RIDGING. ANTICIPATING A
COOL TO SEASONABLE PATTERN LACKING OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY.

GOING DEEPER...SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE NAO/AO INDICES INTO THE EARLY-HALF
OF AUGUST AS THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD OF THE PNA EXHIBITS AN OVERALL
POSITIVE TREND SIGNALS CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE E-PACIFIC WITH
PREFERRED TROUGHING E. NO SURPRISE THAT THE NAEFS/GEFS ANALOGS ALONG
WITH THE EC-ENSEMBLE HOLD A BUCKLED PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
W-ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS STOUT. TREND OF ANOMALOUS BELOW-NORMAL
CONDITIONS PREVAILS.

THOUGH...PER AFOREMENTIONED ANALOGS/ENSEMBLES...THERE IS A POTENTIAL
TREND TOWARDS DEAMPLIFICATION. THIS RESONATES WITHIN GLOBAL FORECAST
SOLUTIONS HIGHLIGHTING A PHASE-SHIFT IN THE MJO CLIMATOLOGICALLY
RESULTING IN A MORE ZONAL PATTERN WITH WARMER TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES
OVER NORTH AMERICA. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH A CONTINUED LOW ANOMALY
OVER NE CANADA. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE.

AS TO THE FORECAST...WILL TREND WITH MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS AS
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS USHERING MUCH COOLER AIR S OUT OF
CANADA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES VARY...BUT WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES AND ACCOMPANYING JET STREAKS THROUGH THE
OVERALL TROUGH PATTERN. ITS PLAUSIBLE TO SEE PERIODS OF WET WEATHER
SHOULD THE TROUGH WOBBLE PARENT WITH ITS NEIGHBORING RIDGE AXES.
WILL BREAK DOWN THE HIGHLIGHTS/CONFIDENCE WITHIN THE DAILY
DISCUSSION BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...

MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW USHERS +8-10C H85 AIR INTO S NEW
ENGLAND AS THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY/DYNAMICS IS SHUNTED OFFSHORE.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WITH LIGHT WINDS SLOWLY TURNING S TOWARDS THE END
OF THE PERIOD. LOTS OF DRY AIR IN PLACE AS IT CONTINUALLY WRAPS INTO
THE OCCLUSION AS NEW ENGLAND FINDS ITSELF WITHIN THE LFQ OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL JET...A FAVORABLE REGION OF SUBSIDENCE.

WILL PREVAIL WITH SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE
SHORES. A DRY FORECAST WITH ACTIVITY HELD WELL N/W PARENT WITH THE
OCCLUSION AND BETTER COLD-POOL. PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS DURING THE
DAY WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS.

THURSDAY...

MAIN IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OCCLUSION EJECTS CYCLONICALLY OVER
THE E GREAT LAKES. EXPECT SUBSEQUENT FALLING HEIGHTS COLOCATED WITH
STRONG ENHANCED ASCENT AND DEEP-LAYER LIFT /ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE
LFQ OF AN ATTENDANT JET STREAK/.

SHOULD SEE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ACTIVITY DEVELOP ACROSS INTERIOR NEW
ENGLAND BENEATH COOLER AIR ALOFT AND CYCLONIC FLOW. SEVERITY SHOULD
BE LIMITED LACK OF INSTABILITY WITH POOR LAPSE RATES AND ABUNDANCE
OF DRY AIR...DESPITE DECENT SW-NE UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY AWAY FROM THE SHORELINES WHICH SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ONSHORE MARITIME AIR.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...

PACIFIC-ORIGIN ENERGY ROUNDING THE BROADER TROUGH PATTERN STREAMS NE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RESOLVES A FASTER JET STREAK SUBSEQUENTLY. SHOULD SEE A
BROADSCALE REGION OF FAVORABLE ASCENT DEVELOP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.

BUT CHALLENGES PREVAIL BETWEEN LIKELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY
ACROSS INTERIOR NE-CONUS AND LINGERING OFFSHORE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
ANTICIPATING A REGION BETWEEN OF DRIER WEATHER...JUST WHERE AND HOW
IT EVOLVES ENTERTAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY.

EC/GEFS TREND WITH ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHEREAS THE
27.12Z GFS RETROGRADES THE OFFSHORE FRONT PARENT WITH A FRONTAL LOW
CONSEQUENTIAL OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC ENERGY. ALL SOLUTIONS
SHOW THE MAIN LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES LIFTING OUT OF THE REGION TO
THE NE.

SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

THOUGH PATTERN DEAMPLIFICATION IS POSSIBLE...CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS
BEHIND THE EARLIER PACIFIC IMPULSE. WILL HOLD WITH THE TYPICAL
SUMMER-TIME PATTERN OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH QUIET
WEATHER ALONG THE SHORES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

7 PM UPDATE...

ONLY CHANGE TO 18Z TAFS WAS TO ACCOUNT FOR TSTMS VICINITY OF
BAF/BDL THRU 00Z/01Z. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. EARLIER DISCUSSION
BELOW.

================================================================

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON...THEN INCREASING CONFIDENCE MON
NIGHT.

THRU 00Z...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS EXIT EASTERN MA 3PM OR
4PM...THEN ANY NEW CONVECTION SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED IF AT ALL.
ANY LINGERING MVFR ACROSS EASTERN MA WILL IMPROVE TO LOW END VFR
BY 4 PM.

TONIGHT...MARGINAL MVFR/VFR TO START THEN LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESS AS FOG DEVELOPS. ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SHOWERS
WITH SCT TSTMS DEVELOPS 07Z-10Z FROM SW TO NE. HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS.

MONDAY...IFR/LIFR IN THE MORNING WITH SCT SHRA/TSTMS LIFTS NE INTO
ME 12Z TO 15Z FROM SW TO NE. THEN LOW END VFR MOST TERMINALS BY
AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS POSSIBLE EXPECT ACROSS RI
AND SOUTHEAST MA WHERE RISK OF SHRA/TSTMS IS MUCH LOWER. A FEW
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING WEATHER AFTER 03Z OR SO AS COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE WNW. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH AND
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 03Z OR SO.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS/STORMS JUST ABOUT OFFSHORE
AS OF 230 PM. LITTLE IF ANY NEW CONVECTION UNTIL 09Z-12Z MON.
LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR TONIGHT IN FOG...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR MON
MIDDAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE MON AFTN.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN STORMS
THRU 00Z-01Z THEN IMPROVING TO VFR. THEN CONDITIONS LOWER 06Z-09Z
TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS. HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR MON MIDDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF AFTN T-STORM POSSIBLE. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS
GRADUALLY TURNING S. SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS WITH MIX OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.
SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES.

FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. SCATTERED-WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA. MAIN FOCUS
ACROSS SE/W/CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. COULD BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY AROUND
THE BOS-PVD CORRIDOR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON NIGHT

TONIGHT...PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND TSTMS REDEVELOP
TOWARD DAYBREAK. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY
RAIN.

MONDAY...PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE MORNING BURNS OFF/ERODES BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND TSTMS TAPER OFF FOLLOWED BY A
NEW ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY BE STRONG ALONG WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SSW WINDS MAY
APPROACH 25 KT AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE.

MON NIGHT...COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS WITH A WIND SHIFT
TO THE WNW ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIGHT WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR TRANQUIL BOATING
WEATHER AS SEAS DIMINISH.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WHILE BOATING CONDITIONS REMAIN
TRANQUIL...WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
OUR DOPPLER RADAR IS DOWN. A TECHNICIAN IS ON THE WAY IN. WE
APOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ235-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
EQUIPMENT...NOCERA



000
FXUS61 KBOX 272303
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
703 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BY JULY STANDARDS WILL DEVELOP
OVER NY AND PA TONIGHT. ITS WARM FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY MORNING TO THE REGION FOLLOWED BY
POSSIBLE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON TO THE AREA AS ITS
ATTENDING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BY TUE THE FRONT
MOVES OFFSHORE WITH DRY AND MUCH LESS HUMID WEATHER OVERSPREADING
THE REGION AND CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

*** WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND T-STORMS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO
 MONDAY MORNING ***

7 PM UPDATE...

STILL MONITORING CONVECTION OVER WESTERN MA VICINITY OF
SPRINGFIELD. STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS...LARGE
HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEAST INTO CT WHERE TEMPS REMAIN IN THE L80S WITH DEW PTS IN
THE U60S/L70S. THIS YIELDS ML CAPES OF AROUND 1500J/KG. STORMS
WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY WITH SUNSET HOWEVER MAY PERSIST A WHILE LONGER
GIVEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35 KT AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF
6-6.5C/KM.

OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY. THEN LATER
TONIGHT OUR ATTENTION SHIFTS TO CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN
PA ASSOCIATED WITH ANOMALOUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DEVELOPING
LOW PRES AND ATTENDING WARM FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL REACH CT AND
WESTERN MA BETWEEN 06Z-09Z THEN THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION 09Z-
12Z. HEAVY RAIN AND A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
NEXT ROUND. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

ANOMALOUS POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BRING A ROUND OF HEAVY SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE TONIGHT
INTO MON MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A SECOND ROUND OF T-STORMS /POSSIBLY
STRONG TO SEVERE/ MON AFTERNOON.

AS FOR THIS EVENING...WARM FRONTAL CONVECTION HAS MOVED OFFSHORE AS
OF MID AFTERNOON. SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES MUCH DRIER MID LEVEL
AIR OVER NY AND PA ADVECTING EASTWARD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS DRIER AIR IS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NY STATE AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. UNTIL THIS
MLVL TROUGH EXITS EAST OF THE AREA THERE IS THE RISK OF AN ISOLATED
TSTM WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS WESTERN CT/MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH.
ELSEWHERE DRY AND HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. GIVEN THE HIGH
DEW PT/THETA-E AIRMASS OVER THE REGION...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD
DEVELOP AFTER SUNSET AS THE BLYR COOLS.

OVERNIGHT...INITIAL SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD
KEEP SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRY THROUGH ABOUT 06Z/2AM. THEREAFTER
POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS FEATURE INDUCES CYCLOGENESIS OVER PA/NY STATE. A
BAND OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP/CONVECTION WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z FROM SW TO NE. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND A FEW OF THE
STRONGER STORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AS MUCH OF THE MDL GUID
INDICATES 500-1000 J/KG OF CAPE TOWARD 12Z. HOWEVER THE GREATEST
RISK IS ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. THINK RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING IS LOW GIVEN HOW QUICKLY SYSTEM IS MOVING AND PWATS ARE
ONLY +1 SD ABOVE CLIMO. NEVERTHELESS HEAVY SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY IMPACT
THE MORNING COMMUTE.

IT WILL BE A WARM AND MUGGY WITH DEW PTS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
*** FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE MON AFTERNOON ***

IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA MON WITH 500 MB
HEIGHTS ON THE ORDER OF -3 SD FROM CLIMO! SURFACE LOW PRES TRACKS
FROM PA/NY BORDER THEN ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND IN THE AFTERNOON.
WARM FRONTAL CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY IN THE MORNING BUT
SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY NORTHEAST AND EXIT THE REGION 12Z-15Z FROM SW TO
NE. WARM SECTOR THEN OVERSPREADS EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WITH
TEMPS RISING INTO THE 80S AND DEW PTS 65-70. THIS WILL YIELD SB
CAPES OF 1000-2000J/KG ALONG WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6-6.5C/KM
AS COOLING OCCURS ALOFT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STRONG AS WELL WITH 0-6
KM 35 TO 40 KT. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE PROVIDED BY STRONG
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IN
ADDITION LFQ OF ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE
ENHANCED QG FORCING. THE ONLY WRINKLE IS THE EXACT TIMING AND
TRAJECTORY OF THE DRY SLOT WHICH MUCH OF THE GUID SUGGEST WILL BE
OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND VCNTY. THUS THE GREATEST THREAT OF STRONG TO
SEVERE TSTMS MAY BE FROM INTERIOR CT NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST MA INCLUDING SOUTHERN NH. SPC HAS PLACED THIS REGION IN A
SEE TEXT. MAIN THREATS WILL BE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL
AND LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND
HIGH DEW PTS/LOW LCL.

MON NIGHT...

BIG IMPROVEMENT BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH MUCH LESS HUMID
AIRMASS OVERSPREADING THE REGION WITH DEW PTS FALLING INTO THE 50S!
THIS WILL SUPPORT LOW TEMPS BY TUE MORNING IN THE MU50S INLAND AND
LOW TO MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - SLIGHTLY COOL AND DRY INTO THE END OF JULY!
 - SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY
 - DECENT CHANCES FOR WET WEATHER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
 - POSSIBLE DAILY OCCURRENCES OF INTERIOR STORMS INTO NEXT WEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

INCREDIBLE PATTERN FOR MID-SUMMER! ENSEMBLE SIGNALS AVERAGING WELL-
BELOW NORMAL /-4 TO -5 SD/ FOR BOTH TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY ACROSS
THE NE CONUS AS A BUCKLED PATTERN PREVAILS WITH PREFERRED TROUGHING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES NEIGHBORED BY STRONG RIDGING. ANTICIPATING A
COOL TO SEASONABLE PATTERN LACKING OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY.

GOING DEEPER...SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE NAO/AO INDICES INTO THE EARLY-HALF
OF AUGUST AS THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD OF THE PNA EXHIBITS AN OVERALL
POSITIVE TREND SIGNALS CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE E-PACIFIC WITH
PREFERRED TROUGHING E. NO SURPRISE THAT THE NAEFS/GEFS ANALOGS ALONG
WITH THE EC-ENSEMBLE HOLD A BUCKLED PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
W-ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS STOUT. TREND OF ANOMALOUS BELOW-NORMAL
CONDITIONS PREVAILS.

THOUGH...PER AFOREMENTIONED ANALOGS/ENSEMBLES...THERE IS A POTENTIAL
TREND TOWARDS DEAMPLIFICATION. THIS RESONATES WITHIN GLOBAL FORECAST
SOLUTIONS HIGHLIGHTING A PHASE-SHIFT IN THE MJO CLIMATOLOGICALLY
RESULTING IN A MORE ZONAL PATTERN WITH WARMER TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES
OVER NORTH AMERICA. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH A CONTINUED LOW ANOMALY
OVER NE CANADA. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE.

AS TO THE FORECAST...WILL TREND WITH MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS AS
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS USHERING MUCH COOLER AIR S OUT OF
CANADA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES VARY...BUT WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES AND ACCOMPANYING JET STREAKS THROUGH THE
OVERALL TROUGH PATTERN. ITS PLAUSIBLE TO SEE PERIODS OF WET WEATHER
SHOULD THE TROUGH WOBBLE PARENT WITH ITS NEIGHBORING RIDGE AXES.
WILL BREAK DOWN THE HIGHLIGHTS/CONFIDENCE WITHIN THE DAILY
DISCUSSION BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...

MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW USHERS +8-10C H85 AIR INTO S NEW
ENGLAND AS THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY/DYNAMICS IS SHUNTED OFFSHORE.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WITH LIGHT WINDS SLOWLY TURNING S TOWARDS THE END
OF THE PERIOD. LOTS OF DRY AIR IN PLACE AS IT CONTINUALLY WRAPS INTO
THE OCCLUSION AS NEW ENGLAND FINDS ITSELF WITHIN THE LFQ OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL JET...A FAVORABLE REGION OF SUBSIDENCE.

WILL PREVAIL WITH SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE
SHORES. A DRY FORECAST WITH ACTIVITY HELD WELL N/W PARENT WITH THE
OCCLUSION AND BETTER COLD-POOL. PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS DURING THE
DAY WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS.

THURSDAY...

MAIN IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OCCLUSION EJECTS CYCLONICALLY OVER
THE E GREAT LAKES. EXPECT SUBSEQUENT FALLING HEIGHTS COLOCATED WITH
STRONG ENHANCED ASCENT AND DEEP-LAYER LIFT /ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE
LFQ OF AN ATTENDANT JET STREAK/.

SHOULD SEE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ACTIVITY DEVELOP ACROSS INTERIOR NEW
ENGLAND BENEATH COOLER AIR ALOFT AND CYCLONIC FLOW. SEVERITY SHOULD
BE LIMITED LACK OF INSTABILITY WITH POOR LAPSE RATES AND ABUNDANCE
OF DRY AIR...DESPITE DECENT SW-NE UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY AWAY FROM THE SHORELINES WHICH SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ONSHORE MARITIME AIR.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...

PACIFIC-ORIGIN ENERGY ROUNDING THE BROADER TROUGH PATTERN STREAMS NE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RESOLVES A FASTER JET STREAK SUBSEQUENTLY. SHOULD SEE A
BROADSCALE REGION OF FAVORABLE ASCENT DEVELOP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.

BUT CHALLENGES PREVAIL BETWEEN LIKELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY
ACROSS INTERIOR NE-CONUS AND LINGERING OFFSHORE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
ANTICIPATING A REGION BETWEEN OF DRIER WEATHER...JUST WHERE AND HOW
IT EVOLVES ENTERTAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY.

EC/GEFS TREND WITH ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHEREAS THE
27.12Z GFS RETROGRADES THE OFFSHORE FRONT PARENT WITH A FRONTAL LOW
CONSEQUENTIAL OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC ENERGY. ALL SOLUTIONS
SHOW THE MAIN LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES LIFTING OUT OF THE REGION TO
THE NE.

SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

THOUGH PATTERN DEAMPLIFICATION IS POSSIBLE...CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS
BEHIND THE EARLIER PACIFIC IMPULSE. WILL HOLD WITH THE TYPICAL
SUMMER-TIME PATTERN OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH QUIET
WEATHER ALONG THE SHORES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

7 PM UPDATE...

ONLY CHANGE TO 18Z TAFS WAS TO ACCOUNT FOR TSTMS VICINITY OF
BAF/BDL THRU 00Z/01Z. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. EARLIER DISCUSSION
BELOW.

================================================================

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON...THEN INCREASING CONFIDENCE MON
NIGHT.

THRU 00Z...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS EXIT EASTERN MA 3PM OR
4PM...THEN ANY NEW CONVECTION SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED IF AT ALL.
ANY LINGERING MVFR ACROSS EASTERN MA WILL IMPROVE TO LOW END VFR
BY 4 PM.

TONIGHT...MARGINAL MVFR/VFR TO START THEN LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESS AS FOG DEVELOPS. ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SHOWERS
WITH SCT TSTMS DEVELOPS 07Z-10Z FROM SW TO NE. HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS.

MONDAY...IFR/LIFR IN THE MORNING WITH SCT SHRA/TSTMS LIFTS NE INTO
ME 12Z TO 15Z FROM SW TO NE. THEN LOW END VFR MOST TERMINALS BY
AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS POSSIBLE EXPECT ACROSS RI
AND SOUTHEAST MA WHERE RISK OF SHRA/TSTMS IS MUCH LOWER. A FEW
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING WEATHER AFTER 03Z OR SO AS COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE WNW. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH AND
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 03Z OR SO.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS/STORMS JUST ABOUT OFFSHORE
AS OF 230 PM. LITTLE IF ANY NEW CONVECTION UNTIL 09Z-12Z MON.
LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR TONIGHT IN FOG...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR MON
MIDDAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE MON AFTN.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN STORMS
THRU 00Z-01Z THEN IMPROVING TO VFR. THEN CONDITIONS LOWER 06Z-09Z
TO MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS. HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR MON MIDDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF AFTN T-STORM POSSIBLE. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS
GRADUALLY TURNING S. SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS WITH MIX OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.
SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES.

FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. SCATTERED-WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA. MAIN FOCUS
ACROSS SE/W/CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. COULD BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY AROUND
THE BOS-PVD CORRIDOR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON NIGHT

TONIGHT...PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND TSTMS REDEVELOP
TOWARD DAYBREAK. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY
RAIN.

MONDAY...PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE MORNING BURNS OFF/ERODES BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND TSTMS TAPER OFF FOLLOWED BY A
NEW ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY BE STRONG ALONG WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SSW WINDS MAY
APPROACH 25 KT AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE.

MON NIGHT...COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS WITH A WIND SHIFT
TO THE WNW ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIGHT WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR TRANQUIL BOATING
WEATHER AS SEAS DIMINISH.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WHILE BOATING CONDITIONS REMAIN
TRANQUIL...WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
OUR DOPPLER RADAR IS DOWN. A TECHNICIAN IS ON THE WAY IN. WE
APOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ235-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
EQUIPMENT...NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 272018
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
418 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BY JULY STANDARDS WILL DEVELOP
OVER NY AND PA TONIGHT. ITS WARM FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY MORNING TO THE REGION FOLLOWED BY
POSSIBLE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON TO THE AREA AS ITS
ATTENDING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BY TUE THE FRONT
MOVES OFFSHORE WITH DRY AND MUCH LESS HUMID WEATHER OVERSPREADING
THE REGION AND CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

*** HEAVY RAIN AND T-STORMS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ***

ANOMALOUS POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BRING A ROUND OF HEAVY SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE TONIGHT
INTO MON MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A SECOND ROUND OF T-STORMS /POSSIBLY
STRONG TO SEVERE/ MON AFTERNOON.

AS FOR THIS EVENING...WARM FRONTAL CONVECTION HAS MOVED OFFSHORE AS
OF MID AFTERNOON. SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES MUCH DRIER MID LEVEL
AIR OVER NY AND PA ADVECTING EASTWARD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS DRIER AIR IS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NY STATE AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. UNTIL THIS
MLVL TROUGH EXITS EAST OF THE AREA THERE IS THE RISK OF AN ISOLATED
TSTM WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS WESTERN CT/MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH.
ELSEWHERE DRY AND HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. GIVEN THE HIGH
DEW PT/THETA-E AIRMASS OVER THE REGION...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD
DEVELOP AFTER SUNSET AS THE BLYR COOLS.

OVERNIGHT...INITIAL SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD
KEEP SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRY THROUGH ABOUT 06Z/2AM. THEREAFTER
POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS FEATURE INDUCES CYCLOGENESIS OVER PA/NY STATE. A
BAND OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP/CONVECTION WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z FROM SW TO NE. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND A FEW OF THE
STRONGER STORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AS MUCH OF THE MDL GUID
INDICATES 500-1000 J/KG OF CAPE TOWARD 12Z. HOWEVER THE GREATEST
RISK IS ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. THINK RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING IS LOW GIVEN HOW QUICKLY SYSTEM IS MOVING AND PWATS ARE
ONLY +1 SD ABOVE CLIMO. NEVERTHELESS HEAVY SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY IMPACT
THE MORNING COMMUTE.

IT WILL BE A WARM AND MUGGY WITH DEW PTS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

*** FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE MON AFTERNOON ***

IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA MON WITH 500 MB
HEIGHTS ON THE ORDER OF -3 SD FROM CLIMO! SURFACE LOW PRES TRACKS
FROM PA/NY BORDER THEN ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND IN THE AFTERNOON.
WARM FRONTAL CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY IN THE MORNING BUT
SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY NORTHEAST AND EXIT THE REGION 12Z-15Z FROM SW TO
NE. WARM SECTOR THEN OVERSPREADS EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WITH
TEMPS RISING INTO THE 80S AND DEW PTS 65-70. THIS WILL YIELD SB
CAPES OF 1000-2000J/KG ALONG WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6-6.5C/KM
AS COOLING OCCURS ALOFT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STRONG AS WELL WITH 0-6
KM 35 TO 40 KT. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE PROVIDED BY STRONG
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IN
ADDITION LFQ OF ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE
ENHANCED QG FORCING. THE ONLY WRINKLE IS THE EXACT TIMING AND
TRAJECTORY OF THE DRY SLOT WHICH MUCH OF THE GUID SUGGEST WILL BE
OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND VCNTY. THUS THE GREATEST THREAT OF STRONG TO
SEVERE TSTMS MAY BE FROM INTERIOR CT NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST MA INCLUDING SOUTHERN NH. SPC HAS PLACED THIS REGION IN A
SEE TEXT. MAIN THREATS WILL BE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL
AND LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND
HIGH DEW PTS/LOW LCL.

MON NIGHT...

BIG IMPROVEMENT BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH MUCH LESS HUMID
AIRMASS OVERSPREADING THE REGION WITH DEW PTS FALLING INTO THE 50S!
THIS WILL SUPPORT LOW TEMPS BY TUE MORNING IN THE MU50S INLAND AND
LOW TO MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - SLIGHTLY COOL AND DRY INTO THE END OF JULY!
 - SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY
 - DECENT CHANCES FOR WET WEATHER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
 - POSSIBLE DAILY OCCURRANCES OF INTERIOR STORMS INTO NEXT WEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

INCREDIBLE PATTERN FOR MID-SUMMER! ENSEMBLE SIGNALS AVERAGING WELL-
BELOW NORMAL /-4 TO -5 SD/ FOR BOTH TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY ACROSS
THE NE CONUS AS A BUCKLED PATTERN PREVAILS WITH PREFERRED TROUGHING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES NEIGHBORED BY STRONG RIDGING. ANTICIPATING A
COOL TO SEASONABLE PATTERN LACKING OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY.

GOING DEEPER...SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE NAO/AO INDICES INTO THE EARLY-HALF
OF AUGUST AS THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD OF THE PNA EXHIBITS AN OVERALL
POSITIVE TREND SIGNALS CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE E-PACIFIC WITH
PREFERRED TROUGHING E. NO SURPRISE THAT THE NAEFS/GEFS ANALOGS ALONG
WITH THE EC-ENSEMBLE HOLD A BUCKLED PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
W-ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS STOUT. TREND OF ANOMALOUS BELOW-NORMAL
CONDITIONS PREVAILS.

THOUGH...PER AFOREMENTIONED ANALOGS/ENSEMBLES...THERE IS A POTENTIAL
TREND TOWARDS DEAMPLIFICATION. THIS RESONATES WITHIN GLOBAL FORECAST
SOLUTIONS HIGHLIGHTING A PHASE-SHIFT IN THE MJO CLIMATOLOGICALLY
RESULTING IN A MORE ZONAL PATTERN WITH WARMER TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES
OVER NORTH AMERICA. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH A CONTINUED LOW ANOMALY
OVER NE CANADA. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE.

AS TO THE FORECAST...WILL TREND WITH MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS AS
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS USHERING MUCH COOLER AIR S OUT OF
CANADA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES VARY...BUT WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES AND ACCOMPANYING JET STREAKS THROUGH THE
OVERALL TROUGH PATTERN. ITS PLAUSIBLE TO SEE PERIODS OF WET WEATHER
SHOULD THE TROUGH WOBBLE PARENT WITH ITS NEIGHBORING RIDGE AXES.
WILL BREAK DOWN THE HIGHLIGHTS/CONFIDENCE WITHIN THE DAILY
DISCUSSION BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...

MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW USHERS +8-10C H85 AIR INTO S NEW
ENGLAND AS THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY/DYNAMICS IS SHUNTED OFFSHORE.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WITH LIGHT WINDS SLOWLY TURNING S TOWARDS THE END
OF THE PERIOD. LOTS OF DRY AIR IN PLACE AS IT CONTINUALLY WRAPS INTO
THE OCCLUSION AS NEW ENGLAND FINDS ITSELF WITHIN THE LRQ OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL JET...A FAVORABLE REGION OF SUBSIDENCE.

WILL PREVAIL WITH SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE
SHORES. A DRY FORECAST WITH ACTIVITY HELD WELL N/W PARENT WITH THE
OCCLUSION AND BETTER COLD-POOL. PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS DURING THE
DAY WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS.

THURSDAY...

MAIN IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OCCLUSION EJECTS CYCLONICALLY OVER
THE E GREAT LAKES. EXPECT SUBSEQUENT FALLING HEIGHTS COLLOCATED WITH
STRONG ENHANCED ASCENT AND DEEP-LAYER LIFT /ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE
LFQ OF AN ATTENDANT JET STREAK/.

SHOULD SEE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ACTIVITY DEVELOP ACROSS INTERIOR NEW
ENGLAND BENEATH COOLER AIR ALOFT AND CYCLONIC FLOW. SEVERITY SHOULD
BE LIMITED LACK OF INSTABILITY WITH POOR LAPSE RATES AND ABUNDANCE
OF DRY AIR...DESPITE DECENT SW-NE UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY AWAY FROM THE SHORELINES WHICH SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ONSHORE MARITIME AIR.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...

PACIFIC-ORIGIN ENERGY ROUNDING THE BROADER TROUGH PATTERN STREAMS NE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RESOLVES A FASTER JET STREAK SUBSEQUENTLY. SHOULD SEE A
BROADSCALE REGION OF FAVORABLE ASCENT DEVELOP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.

BUT CHALLENGES PREVAIL BETWEEN LIKELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY
ACROSS INTERIOR NE-CONUS AND LINGERING OFFSHORE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
ANTICIPATING A REGION BETWEEN OF DRIER WEATHER...JUST WHERE AND HOW
IT EVOLVES ENTERTAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY.

EC/GEFS TREND WITH ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHEREAS THE
27.12Z GFS RETROGRADES THE OFFSHORE FRONT PARENT WITH A FRONTAL LOW
CONSEQUENTIAL OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC ENERGY. ALL SOLUTIONS
SHOW THE MAIN LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES LIFTING OUT OF THE REGION TO
THE NE.

SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

THOUGH PATTERN DEAMPLIFICATION IS POSSIBLE...CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS
BEHIND THE EARLIER PACIFIC IMPULSE. WILL HOLD WITH THE TYPICAL
SUMMER-TIME PATTERN OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH QUIET
WEATHER ALONG THE SHORES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON...THEN INCREASING CONFIDENCE MON
NIGHT.

THRU 00Z...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS EXIT EASTERN MA 3PM OR
4PM...THEN ANY NEW CONVECTION SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED IF AT ALL.
ANY LINGERING MVFR ACROSS EASTERN MA WILL IMPROVE TO LOW END VFR
BY 4 PM.

TONIGHT...MARGINAL MVFR/VFR TO START THEN LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESS AS FOG DEVELOPS. ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SHOWERS
WITH SCT TSTMS DEVELOPS 07Z-10Z FROM SW TO NE. HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS.

MONDAY...IFR/LIFR IN THE MORNING WITH SCT SHRA/TSTMS LIFTS NE INTO
ME 12Z TO 15Z FROM SW TO NE. THEN LOW END VFR MOST TERMINALS BY
AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS POSSIBLE EXPECT ACROSS RI
AND SOUTHEAST MA WHERE RISK OF SHRA/TSTMS IS MUCH LOWER. A FEW
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING WEATHER AFTER 03Z OR SO AS COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE WNW. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH AND
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 03Z OR SO.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS/STORMS JUST ABOUT OFFSHORE
AS OF 230 PM. LITTLE IF ANY NEW CONVECTION UNTIL 09Z-12Z MON.
LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR TONIGHT IN FOG...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR MON
MIDDAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE MON AFTN.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR/VFR THEN LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR
AFTER 07Z AS SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVERSPREAD THE TERMINAL. HEAVY RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR MON MIDDAY
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTN T-STORM POSSIBLE. A FEW STRONG STORMS
POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS
GRADUALLY TURNING S. SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS WITH MIX OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.
SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES.

FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. SCATTERED-WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA. MAIN FOCUS
ACROSS SE/W/CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. COULD BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY AROUND
THE BOS-PVD CORRIDOR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON NIGHT

TONIGHT...PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND TSTMS REDEVELOP
TOWARD DAYBREAK. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY
RAIN.

MONDAY...PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE MORNING BURNS OFF/ERODES BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND TSTMS TAPER OFF FOLLOWED BY A
NEW ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY BE STRONG ALONG WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SSW WINDS MAY
APPROACH 25 KT AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE.

MON NIGHT...COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS WITH A WIND SHIFT
TO THE WNW ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIGHT WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR TRANQUIL BOATING
WEATHER AS SEAS DIMINISH.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WHILE BOATING CONDITIONS REMAIN
TRANQUIL...WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ235-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 272018
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
418 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BY JULY STANDARDS WILL DEVELOP
OVER NY AND PA TONIGHT. ITS WARM FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY MORNING TO THE REGION FOLLOWED BY
POSSIBLE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON TO THE AREA AS ITS
ATTENDING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BY TUE THE FRONT
MOVES OFFSHORE WITH DRY AND MUCH LESS HUMID WEATHER OVERSPREADING
THE REGION AND CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

*** HEAVY RAIN AND T-STORMS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ***

ANOMALOUS POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BRING A ROUND OF HEAVY SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE TONIGHT
INTO MON MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A SECOND ROUND OF T-STORMS /POSSIBLY
STRONG TO SEVERE/ MON AFTERNOON.

AS FOR THIS EVENING...WARM FRONTAL CONVECTION HAS MOVED OFFSHORE AS
OF MID AFTERNOON. SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES MUCH DRIER MID LEVEL
AIR OVER NY AND PA ADVECTING EASTWARD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS DRIER AIR IS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NY STATE AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. UNTIL THIS
MLVL TROUGH EXITS EAST OF THE AREA THERE IS THE RISK OF AN ISOLATED
TSTM WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ACROSS WESTERN CT/MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH.
ELSEWHERE DRY AND HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. GIVEN THE HIGH
DEW PT/THETA-E AIRMASS OVER THE REGION...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD
DEVELOP AFTER SUNSET AS THE BLYR COOLS.

OVERNIGHT...INITIAL SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD
KEEP SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRY THROUGH ABOUT 06Z/2AM. THEREAFTER
POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS FEATURE INDUCES CYCLOGENESIS OVER PA/NY STATE. A
BAND OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP/CONVECTION WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z FROM SW TO NE. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND A FEW OF THE
STRONGER STORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AS MUCH OF THE MDL GUID
INDICATES 500-1000 J/KG OF CAPE TOWARD 12Z. HOWEVER THE GREATEST
RISK IS ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. THINK RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING IS LOW GIVEN HOW QUICKLY SYSTEM IS MOVING AND PWATS ARE
ONLY +1 SD ABOVE CLIMO. NEVERTHELESS HEAVY SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY IMPACT
THE MORNING COMMUTE.

IT WILL BE A WARM AND MUGGY WITH DEW PTS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

*** FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE MON AFTERNOON ***

IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA MON WITH 500 MB
HEIGHTS ON THE ORDER OF -3 SD FROM CLIMO! SURFACE LOW PRES TRACKS
FROM PA/NY BORDER THEN ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND IN THE AFTERNOON.
WARM FRONTAL CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY IN THE MORNING BUT
SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY NORTHEAST AND EXIT THE REGION 12Z-15Z FROM SW TO
NE. WARM SECTOR THEN OVERSPREADS EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WITH
TEMPS RISING INTO THE 80S AND DEW PTS 65-70. THIS WILL YIELD SB
CAPES OF 1000-2000J/KG ALONG WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6-6.5C/KM
AS COOLING OCCURS ALOFT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STRONG AS WELL WITH 0-6
KM 35 TO 40 KT. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE PROVIDED BY STRONG
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IN
ADDITION LFQ OF ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE
ENHANCED QG FORCING. THE ONLY WRINKLE IS THE EXACT TIMING AND
TRAJECTORY OF THE DRY SLOT WHICH MUCH OF THE GUID SUGGEST WILL BE
OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND VCNTY. THUS THE GREATEST THREAT OF STRONG TO
SEVERE TSTMS MAY BE FROM INTERIOR CT NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST MA INCLUDING SOUTHERN NH. SPC HAS PLACED THIS REGION IN A
SEE TEXT. MAIN THREATS WILL BE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL
AND LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND
HIGH DEW PTS/LOW LCL.

MON NIGHT...

BIG IMPROVEMENT BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH MUCH LESS HUMID
AIRMASS OVERSPREADING THE REGION WITH DEW PTS FALLING INTO THE 50S!
THIS WILL SUPPORT LOW TEMPS BY TUE MORNING IN THE MU50S INLAND AND
LOW TO MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - SLIGHTLY COOL AND DRY INTO THE END OF JULY!
 - SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY
 - DECENT CHANCES FOR WET WEATHER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
 - POSSIBLE DAILY OCCURRANCES OF INTERIOR STORMS INTO NEXT WEEK

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCE...

INCREDIBLE PATTERN FOR MID-SUMMER! ENSEMBLE SIGNALS AVERAGING WELL-
BELOW NORMAL /-4 TO -5 SD/ FOR BOTH TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY ACROSS
THE NE CONUS AS A BUCKLED PATTERN PREVAILS WITH PREFERRED TROUGHING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES NEIGHBORED BY STRONG RIDGING. ANTICIPATING A
COOL TO SEASONABLE PATTERN LACKING OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY.

GOING DEEPER...SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE NAO/AO INDICES INTO THE EARLY-HALF
OF AUGUST AS THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD OF THE PNA EXHIBITS AN OVERALL
POSITIVE TREND SIGNALS CONTINUED RIDGING OVER THE E-PACIFIC WITH
PREFERRED TROUGHING E. NO SURPRISE THAT THE NAEFS/GEFS ANALOGS ALONG
WITH THE EC-ENSEMBLE HOLD A BUCKLED PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
W-ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS STOUT. TREND OF ANOMALOUS BELOW-NORMAL
CONDITIONS PREVAILS.

THOUGH...PER AFOREMENTIONED ANALOGS/ENSEMBLES...THERE IS A POTENTIAL
TREND TOWARDS DEAMPLIFICATION. THIS RESONATES WITHIN GLOBAL FORECAST
SOLUTIONS HIGHLIGHTING A PHASE-SHIFT IN THE MJO CLIMATOLOGICALLY
RESULTING IN A MORE ZONAL PATTERN WITH WARMER TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES
OVER NORTH AMERICA. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH A CONTINUED LOW ANOMALY
OVER NE CANADA. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE.

AS TO THE FORECAST...WILL TREND WITH MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS AS
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS USHERING MUCH COOLER AIR S OUT OF
CANADA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES VARY...BUT WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES AND ACCOMPANYING JET STREAKS THROUGH THE
OVERALL TROUGH PATTERN. ITS PLAUSIBLE TO SEE PERIODS OF WET WEATHER
SHOULD THE TROUGH WOBBLE PARENT WITH ITS NEIGHBORING RIDGE AXES.
WILL BREAK DOWN THE HIGHLIGHTS/CONFIDENCE WITHIN THE DAILY
DISCUSSION BELOW.

*/ DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...

MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW USHERS +8-10C H85 AIR INTO S NEW
ENGLAND AS THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY/DYNAMICS IS SHUNTED OFFSHORE.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WITH LIGHT WINDS SLOWLY TURNING S TOWARDS THE END
OF THE PERIOD. LOTS OF DRY AIR IN PLACE AS IT CONTINUALLY WRAPS INTO
THE OCCLUSION AS NEW ENGLAND FINDS ITSELF WITHIN THE LRQ OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL JET...A FAVORABLE REGION OF SUBSIDENCE.

WILL PREVAIL WITH SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE
SHORES. A DRY FORECAST WITH ACTIVITY HELD WELL N/W PARENT WITH THE
OCCLUSION AND BETTER COLD-POOL. PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS DURING THE
DAY WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS.

THURSDAY...

MAIN IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OCCLUSION EJECTS CYCLONICALLY OVER
THE E GREAT LAKES. EXPECT SUBSEQUENT FALLING HEIGHTS COLLOCATED WITH
STRONG ENHANCED ASCENT AND DEEP-LAYER LIFT /ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE
LFQ OF AN ATTENDANT JET STREAK/.

SHOULD SEE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ACTIVITY DEVELOP ACROSS INTERIOR NEW
ENGLAND BENEATH COOLER AIR ALOFT AND CYCLONIC FLOW. SEVERITY SHOULD
BE LIMITED LACK OF INSTABILITY WITH POOR LAPSE RATES AND ABUNDANCE
OF DRY AIR...DESPITE DECENT SW-NE UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY AWAY FROM THE SHORELINES WHICH SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ONSHORE MARITIME AIR.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...

PACIFIC-ORIGIN ENERGY ROUNDING THE BROADER TROUGH PATTERN STREAMS NE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RESOLVES A FASTER JET STREAK SUBSEQUENTLY. SHOULD SEE A
BROADSCALE REGION OF FAVORABLE ASCENT DEVELOP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.

BUT CHALLENGES PREVAIL BETWEEN LIKELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY
ACROSS INTERIOR NE-CONUS AND LINGERING OFFSHORE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
ANTICIPATING A REGION BETWEEN OF DRIER WEATHER...JUST WHERE AND HOW
IT EVOLVES ENTERTAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY.

EC/GEFS TREND WITH ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHEREAS THE
27.12Z GFS RETROGRADES THE OFFSHORE FRONT PARENT WITH A FRONTAL LOW
CONSEQUENTIAL OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC ENERGY. ALL SOLUTIONS
SHOW THE MAIN LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES LIFTING OUT OF THE REGION TO
THE NE.

SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

THOUGH PATTERN DEAMPLIFICATION IS POSSIBLE...CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS
BEHIND THE EARLIER PACIFIC IMPULSE. WILL HOLD WITH THE TYPICAL
SUMMER-TIME PATTERN OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH QUIET
WEATHER ALONG THE SHORES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON...THEN INCREASING CONFIDENCE MON
NIGHT.

THRU 00Z...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS EXIT EASTERN MA 3PM OR
4PM...THEN ANY NEW CONVECTION SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED IF AT ALL.
ANY LINGERING MVFR ACROSS EASTERN MA WILL IMPROVE TO LOW END VFR
BY 4 PM.

TONIGHT...MARGINAL MVFR/VFR TO START THEN LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESS AS FOG DEVELOPS. ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SHOWERS
WITH SCT TSTMS DEVELOPS 07Z-10Z FROM SW TO NE. HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS.

MONDAY...IFR/LIFR IN THE MORNING WITH SCT SHRA/TSTMS LIFTS NE INTO
ME 12Z TO 15Z FROM SW TO NE. THEN LOW END VFR MOST TERMINALS BY
AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS POSSIBLE EXPECT ACROSS RI
AND SOUTHEAST MA WHERE RISK OF SHRA/TSTMS IS MUCH LOWER. A FEW
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING WEATHER AFTER 03Z OR SO AS COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE WNW. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH AND
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 03Z OR SO.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS/STORMS JUST ABOUT OFFSHORE
AS OF 230 PM. LITTLE IF ANY NEW CONVECTION UNTIL 09Z-12Z MON.
LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR TONIGHT IN FOG...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR MON
MIDDAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE MON AFTN.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR/VFR THEN LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR
AFTER 07Z AS SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVERSPREAD THE TERMINAL. HEAVY RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR MON MIDDAY
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTN T-STORM POSSIBLE. A FEW STRONG STORMS
POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS
GRADUALLY TURNING S. SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS WITH MIX OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.
SEA-BREEZES ALONG THE SHORES.

FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. SCATTERED-WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA. MAIN FOCUS
ACROSS SE/W/CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. COULD BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY AROUND
THE BOS-PVD CORRIDOR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON NIGHT

TONIGHT...PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND TSTMS REDEVELOP
TOWARD DAYBREAK. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY
RAIN.

MONDAY...PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE MORNING BURNS OFF/ERODES BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND TSTMS TAPER OFF FOLLOWED BY A
NEW ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY BE STRONG ALONG WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SSW WINDS MAY
APPROACH 25 KT AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE.

MON NIGHT...COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE WATERS WITH A WIND SHIFT
TO THE WNW ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIGHT WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR TRANQUIL BOATING
WEATHER AS SEAS DIMINISH.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WHILE BOATING CONDITIONS REMAIN
TRANQUIL...WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ235-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL



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