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000
FXUS61 KBOX 210804
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
404 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING...GIVES WAY TO A DRYING TREND THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS
EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER FOLLOWS THURSDAY THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND WITH JUST A SPOT SHOWER FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR LOOK TO HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THE
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS THIS MORNING. LOTS OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ALREADY
THIS MORNING. SO FAR...THE MAIN HAZARDS HAVE BEEN THE LIGHTNING
AND BRIEFLY TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING ALONG AT
35-45 MPH...SO AM NOT OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD FLOODING AT THIS TIME. SOME POOR DRAINAGE AREAS COULD
EXPERIENCE NUISANCE FLOODING FOR A TIME THIS MORNING. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR RAINFALL RATES THOUGH.

EXPECTING RAPID CLEARING BEHIND A WARM FRONT LATER THIS MORNING
WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 MOST
LOCATIONS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW EVEN THE COASTAL LOCATIONS TO
GET IN ON THE WARM TEMPERATURES...UNLIKE THIS PAST SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR SOME SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN MA BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
WITH A COLD FRONT HAVING ALREADY PASSED THROUGH OUR REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH RAINFALL AS INSTABILITY
IS RATHER LIMITED. MUCH OF TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH SEASONABLE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCATTERED SHOWERS WED WITH A LOW RISK OF THUNDER/SMALL HAIL
* SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES WED
* UNSEASONABLY COOL THU-SUN WITH A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO AT TIMES

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL THE 12Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITHIN THE MEDIUM AND
LONG RANGE. HOWEVER EXACT TIMING AND STRENGTH OF EACH SYSTEM STILL
NEEDS TO BE WORKED OUT.  UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED...PINWHEELING BETWEEN THE GREAT
LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS SYSTEM WILL YIELD TO A MORE SHOWERY AND
COOLER FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

DETAILS...

* WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ON WEDNESDAY DEVELOPING
A SURFACE LOW ACROSS HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THIS LOW WILL BRING SCT RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER
TO THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. APPEARS WE MAY TRY TO WARM
SECTOR ALLOWING SURFACE TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. THIS
WILL STEEPEN THE LAPSE RATES TO AROUND 7-8 C/KM AS 500 MB TEMPS ARE
-24C. MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALSO INDICATING THAT SOME SURFACE CAPE MAY
DEVELOP WHICH WILL HELP IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IN FACT WE
COULD SEE SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL AS FREEZING HEIGHTS WILL BE LOW
THANKS TO THE COLD POOL. STILL A LOT OF DETAILS TO WORK OUT BUT
SOMETHING TO WATCH IN THE COMING DAY.


* THURSDAY INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

STRONG CUT OFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE NORTHEAST DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD. NEW ENGLAND COULD SEE A SEVERAL WAVES DEVELOP AND
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER MAY SEE A LOT OF DIURNAL CU AND
DIURNAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING RATHER THAN WIDESPREAD RAIN. THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AS COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BE OVERHEAD
STEEPENING THE LAPSE RATES. AREAS THAT HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ANY PRECIP WILL BE NORTH OF THE PIKE...CLOSER TO THE LOW PRESSURE.

LASTLY EXPECT TEMPS TO BE ABOUT 5-10 F BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE WEEK
THANKS TO THE COOLER TEMPS ALOFT VIA THE COLD POOL. IN FACT SOME
AREAS MAY NOT SEE THE 60S FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...LINE OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARE THE BIGGEST THREATS.

TODAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDDAY. COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH WITH WINDS SHIFTING W/SW THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DESPITE THE
RISK FOR A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING. MORNING PUSH LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED. ALSO LOW RISK OF A
THUNDERSTORM BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING. RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS LIKELY MOVED EAST OF THE
TERMINAL FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY WED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  LOW RISK FOR
EVEN A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL WITH
THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.

THU/FRI/SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. CONDITIONS COULD LOWER TO
MVFR QUICKLY IN A BRIEF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER OR TWO.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO CONVERT THE REST OF THE GALE WARNINGS FOR
THE OUTER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.
STILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING...SOME OF WHICH
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. VISIBILITY IMPROVES LATER
TODAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUING TO DIMINISH TONIGHT.

VISIBILITIES MAY BE LIMITED AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MODEST WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...BUT SPEEDS WILL BE NEAR SCA ESP ACROSS THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS. A FEW SHOWERS WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A
LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WITH SMALL HAIL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MODEST WESTERLY FLOW
AS A RESULT OF CLOSED LOW PRESSURE ACROSS QUEBEC.  ENOUGH COLD
ADVECTION OVER THE WATERS WILL BE PRESENT TO GENERATE PERIODS OF 25
KNOT WIND GUSTS.  MARGINAL SCA SEAS EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS
AT TIMES...BUT WITH GOOD VISIBILITY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO TRACK STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS
EVENING...BEFORE HIGH TIDE OCCURS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST /AROUND
03Z/ AND EAST COAST /ABOUT 06Z/. THIS RESULTS IN WINDS BEGINNING
TO SLACKEN AS HIGH TIDE APPROACHES. ALSO SYSTEM IS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE SO DURATION OF ONSHORE WINDS IS LIMITED.

ESTOFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE ROBUST AND REALISTIC THAN ETSS WITH
SURGE VALUES 1.0-1.5 FT AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. SEAS ALSO BUILDING
TO 10-15 FT JUST OFFSHORE. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE
AREAS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND SPLASH OVER. THUS WILL CONTINUE
WITH A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THESE LOCATIONS DURING THIS
EVENING AND EARLY TUE MORNING HIGH TIDES.

WINDS DO NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE FOR A
MODERATE COASTAL FLOOD EVENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 210804
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
404 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING...GIVES WAY TO A DRYING TREND THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS
EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER FOLLOWS THURSDAY THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND WITH JUST A SPOT SHOWER FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR LOOK TO HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THE
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS THIS MORNING. LOTS OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ALREADY
THIS MORNING. SO FAR...THE MAIN HAZARDS HAVE BEEN THE LIGHTNING
AND BRIEFLY TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING ALONG AT
35-45 MPH...SO AM NOT OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD FLOODING AT THIS TIME. SOME POOR DRAINAGE AREAS COULD
EXPERIENCE NUISANCE FLOODING FOR A TIME THIS MORNING. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR RAINFALL RATES THOUGH.

EXPECTING RAPID CLEARING BEHIND A WARM FRONT LATER THIS MORNING
WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 MOST
LOCATIONS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW EVEN THE COASTAL LOCATIONS TO
GET IN ON THE WARM TEMPERATURES...UNLIKE THIS PAST SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR SOME SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN MA BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
WITH A COLD FRONT HAVING ALREADY PASSED THROUGH OUR REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH RAINFALL AS INSTABILITY
IS RATHER LIMITED. MUCH OF TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH SEASONABLE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCATTERED SHOWERS WED WITH A LOW RISK OF THUNDER/SMALL HAIL
* SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES WED
* UNSEASONABLY COOL THU-SUN WITH A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO AT TIMES

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL THE 12Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITHIN THE MEDIUM AND
LONG RANGE. HOWEVER EXACT TIMING AND STRENGTH OF EACH SYSTEM STILL
NEEDS TO BE WORKED OUT.  UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED...PINWHEELING BETWEEN THE GREAT
LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS SYSTEM WILL YIELD TO A MORE SHOWERY AND
COOLER FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

DETAILS...

* WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ON WEDNESDAY DEVELOPING
A SURFACE LOW ACROSS HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THIS LOW WILL BRING SCT RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER
TO THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. APPEARS WE MAY TRY TO WARM
SECTOR ALLOWING SURFACE TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. THIS
WILL STEEPEN THE LAPSE RATES TO AROUND 7-8 C/KM AS 500 MB TEMPS ARE
-24C. MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALSO INDICATING THAT SOME SURFACE CAPE MAY
DEVELOP WHICH WILL HELP IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IN FACT WE
COULD SEE SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL AS FREEZING HEIGHTS WILL BE LOW
THANKS TO THE COLD POOL. STILL A LOT OF DETAILS TO WORK OUT BUT
SOMETHING TO WATCH IN THE COMING DAY.


* THURSDAY INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

STRONG CUT OFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE NORTHEAST DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD. NEW ENGLAND COULD SEE A SEVERAL WAVES DEVELOP AND
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER MAY SEE A LOT OF DIURNAL CU AND
DIURNAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING RATHER THAN WIDESPREAD RAIN. THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AS COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BE OVERHEAD
STEEPENING THE LAPSE RATES. AREAS THAT HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ANY PRECIP WILL BE NORTH OF THE PIKE...CLOSER TO THE LOW PRESSURE.

LASTLY EXPECT TEMPS TO BE ABOUT 5-10 F BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE WEEK
THANKS TO THE COOLER TEMPS ALOFT VIA THE COLD POOL. IN FACT SOME
AREAS MAY NOT SEE THE 60S FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...LINE OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARE THE BIGGEST THREATS.

TODAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDDAY. COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH WITH WINDS SHIFTING W/SW THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DESPITE THE
RISK FOR A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING. MORNING PUSH LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED. ALSO LOW RISK OF A
THUNDERSTORM BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING. RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS LIKELY MOVED EAST OF THE
TERMINAL FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY WED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  LOW RISK FOR
EVEN A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL WITH
THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.

THU/FRI/SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. CONDITIONS COULD LOWER TO
MVFR QUICKLY IN A BRIEF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER OR TWO.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO CONVERT THE REST OF THE GALE WARNINGS FOR
THE OUTER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.
STILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING...SOME OF WHICH
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. VISIBILITY IMPROVES LATER
TODAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUING TO DIMINISH TONIGHT.

VISIBILITIES MAY BE LIMITED AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MODEST WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...BUT SPEEDS WILL BE NEAR SCA ESP ACROSS THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS. A FEW SHOWERS WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A
LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WITH SMALL HAIL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MODEST WESTERLY FLOW
AS A RESULT OF CLOSED LOW PRESSURE ACROSS QUEBEC.  ENOUGH COLD
ADVECTION OVER THE WATERS WILL BE PRESENT TO GENERATE PERIODS OF 25
KNOT WIND GUSTS.  MARGINAL SCA SEAS EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS
AT TIMES...BUT WITH GOOD VISIBILITY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO TRACK STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS
EVENING...BEFORE HIGH TIDE OCCURS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST /AROUND
03Z/ AND EAST COAST /ABOUT 06Z/. THIS RESULTS IN WINDS BEGINNING
TO SLACKEN AS HIGH TIDE APPROACHES. ALSO SYSTEM IS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE SO DURATION OF ONSHORE WINDS IS LIMITED.

ESTOFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE ROBUST AND REALISTIC THAN ETSS WITH
SURGE VALUES 1.0-1.5 FT AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. SEAS ALSO BUILDING
TO 10-15 FT JUST OFFSHORE. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE
AREAS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND SPLASH OVER. THUS WILL CONTINUE
WITH A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THESE LOCATIONS DURING THIS
EVENING AND EARLY TUE MORNING HIGH TIDES.

WINDS DO NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE FOR A
MODERATE COASTAL FLOOD EVENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 210804
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
404 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING...GIVES WAY TO A DRYING TREND THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS
EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER FOLLOWS THURSDAY THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND WITH JUST A SPOT SHOWER FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR LOOK TO HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THE
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS THIS MORNING. LOTS OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ALREADY
THIS MORNING. SO FAR...THE MAIN HAZARDS HAVE BEEN THE LIGHTNING
AND BRIEFLY TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING ALONG AT
35-45 MPH...SO AM NOT OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD FLOODING AT THIS TIME. SOME POOR DRAINAGE AREAS COULD
EXPERIENCE NUISANCE FLOODING FOR A TIME THIS MORNING. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR RAINFALL RATES THOUGH.

EXPECTING RAPID CLEARING BEHIND A WARM FRONT LATER THIS MORNING
WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 MOST
LOCATIONS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW EVEN THE COASTAL LOCATIONS TO
GET IN ON THE WARM TEMPERATURES...UNLIKE THIS PAST SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR SOME SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN MA BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
WITH A COLD FRONT HAVING ALREADY PASSED THROUGH OUR REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH RAINFALL AS INSTABILITY
IS RATHER LIMITED. MUCH OF TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH SEASONABLE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCATTERED SHOWERS WED WITH A LOW RISK OF THUNDER/SMALL HAIL
* SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES WED
* UNSEASONABLY COOL THU-SUN WITH A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO AT TIMES

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL THE 12Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITHIN THE MEDIUM AND
LONG RANGE. HOWEVER EXACT TIMING AND STRENGTH OF EACH SYSTEM STILL
NEEDS TO BE WORKED OUT.  UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED...PINWHEELING BETWEEN THE GREAT
LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS SYSTEM WILL YIELD TO A MORE SHOWERY AND
COOLER FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

DETAILS...

* WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ON WEDNESDAY DEVELOPING
A SURFACE LOW ACROSS HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THIS LOW WILL BRING SCT RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER
TO THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. APPEARS WE MAY TRY TO WARM
SECTOR ALLOWING SURFACE TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. THIS
WILL STEEPEN THE LAPSE RATES TO AROUND 7-8 C/KM AS 500 MB TEMPS ARE
-24C. MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALSO INDICATING THAT SOME SURFACE CAPE MAY
DEVELOP WHICH WILL HELP IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IN FACT WE
COULD SEE SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL AS FREEZING HEIGHTS WILL BE LOW
THANKS TO THE COLD POOL. STILL A LOT OF DETAILS TO WORK OUT BUT
SOMETHING TO WATCH IN THE COMING DAY.


* THURSDAY INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

STRONG CUT OFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE NORTHEAST DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD. NEW ENGLAND COULD SEE A SEVERAL WAVES DEVELOP AND
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER MAY SEE A LOT OF DIURNAL CU AND
DIURNAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING RATHER THAN WIDESPREAD RAIN. THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AS COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BE OVERHEAD
STEEPENING THE LAPSE RATES. AREAS THAT HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ANY PRECIP WILL BE NORTH OF THE PIKE...CLOSER TO THE LOW PRESSURE.

LASTLY EXPECT TEMPS TO BE ABOUT 5-10 F BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE WEEK
THANKS TO THE COOLER TEMPS ALOFT VIA THE COLD POOL. IN FACT SOME
AREAS MAY NOT SEE THE 60S FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...LINE OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARE THE BIGGEST THREATS.

TODAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDDAY. COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH WITH WINDS SHIFTING W/SW THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DESPITE THE
RISK FOR A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING. MORNING PUSH LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED. ALSO LOW RISK OF A
THUNDERSTORM BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING. RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS LIKELY MOVED EAST OF THE
TERMINAL FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY WED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  LOW RISK FOR
EVEN A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL WITH
THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.

THU/FRI/SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. CONDITIONS COULD LOWER TO
MVFR QUICKLY IN A BRIEF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER OR TWO.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO CONVERT THE REST OF THE GALE WARNINGS FOR
THE OUTER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.
STILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING...SOME OF WHICH
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. VISIBILITY IMPROVES LATER
TODAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUING TO DIMINISH TONIGHT.

VISIBILITIES MAY BE LIMITED AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MODEST WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...BUT SPEEDS WILL BE NEAR SCA ESP ACROSS THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS. A FEW SHOWERS WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A
LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WITH SMALL HAIL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MODEST WESTERLY FLOW
AS A RESULT OF CLOSED LOW PRESSURE ACROSS QUEBEC.  ENOUGH COLD
ADVECTION OVER THE WATERS WILL BE PRESENT TO GENERATE PERIODS OF 25
KNOT WIND GUSTS.  MARGINAL SCA SEAS EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS
AT TIMES...BUT WITH GOOD VISIBILITY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO TRACK STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS
EVENING...BEFORE HIGH TIDE OCCURS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST /AROUND
03Z/ AND EAST COAST /ABOUT 06Z/. THIS RESULTS IN WINDS BEGINNING
TO SLACKEN AS HIGH TIDE APPROACHES. ALSO SYSTEM IS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE SO DURATION OF ONSHORE WINDS IS LIMITED.

ESTOFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE ROBUST AND REALISTIC THAN ETSS WITH
SURGE VALUES 1.0-1.5 FT AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. SEAS ALSO BUILDING
TO 10-15 FT JUST OFFSHORE. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE
AREAS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND SPLASH OVER. THUS WILL CONTINUE
WITH A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THESE LOCATIONS DURING THIS
EVENING AND EARLY TUE MORNING HIGH TIDES.

WINDS DO NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE FOR A
MODERATE COASTAL FLOOD EVENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 210804
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
404 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING...GIVES WAY TO A DRYING TREND THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS
EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER FOLLOWS THURSDAY THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND WITH JUST A SPOT SHOWER FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR LOOK TO HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THE
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS THIS MORNING. LOTS OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ALREADY
THIS MORNING. SO FAR...THE MAIN HAZARDS HAVE BEEN THE LIGHTNING
AND BRIEFLY TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING ALONG AT
35-45 MPH...SO AM NOT OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD FLOODING AT THIS TIME. SOME POOR DRAINAGE AREAS COULD
EXPERIENCE NUISANCE FLOODING FOR A TIME THIS MORNING. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR RAINFALL RATES THOUGH.

EXPECTING RAPID CLEARING BEHIND A WARM FRONT LATER THIS MORNING
WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 MOST
LOCATIONS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW EVEN THE COASTAL LOCATIONS TO
GET IN ON THE WARM TEMPERATURES...UNLIKE THIS PAST SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR SOME SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN MA BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
WITH A COLD FRONT HAVING ALREADY PASSED THROUGH OUR REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH RAINFALL AS INSTABILITY
IS RATHER LIMITED. MUCH OF TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH SEASONABLE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCATTERED SHOWERS WED WITH A LOW RISK OF THUNDER/SMALL HAIL
* SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES WED
* UNSEASONABLY COOL THU-SUN WITH A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO AT TIMES

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL THE 12Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITHIN THE MEDIUM AND
LONG RANGE. HOWEVER EXACT TIMING AND STRENGTH OF EACH SYSTEM STILL
NEEDS TO BE WORKED OUT.  UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED...PINWHEELING BETWEEN THE GREAT
LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS SYSTEM WILL YIELD TO A MORE SHOWERY AND
COOLER FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

DETAILS...

* WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ON WEDNESDAY DEVELOPING
A SURFACE LOW ACROSS HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THIS LOW WILL BRING SCT RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER
TO THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. APPEARS WE MAY TRY TO WARM
SECTOR ALLOWING SURFACE TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. THIS
WILL STEEPEN THE LAPSE RATES TO AROUND 7-8 C/KM AS 500 MB TEMPS ARE
-24C. MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALSO INDICATING THAT SOME SURFACE CAPE MAY
DEVELOP WHICH WILL HELP IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IN FACT WE
COULD SEE SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL AS FREEZING HEIGHTS WILL BE LOW
THANKS TO THE COLD POOL. STILL A LOT OF DETAILS TO WORK OUT BUT
SOMETHING TO WATCH IN THE COMING DAY.


* THURSDAY INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

STRONG CUT OFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE NORTHEAST DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD. NEW ENGLAND COULD SEE A SEVERAL WAVES DEVELOP AND
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER MAY SEE A LOT OF DIURNAL CU AND
DIURNAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING RATHER THAN WIDESPREAD RAIN. THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AS COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BE OVERHEAD
STEEPENING THE LAPSE RATES. AREAS THAT HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ANY PRECIP WILL BE NORTH OF THE PIKE...CLOSER TO THE LOW PRESSURE.

LASTLY EXPECT TEMPS TO BE ABOUT 5-10 F BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE WEEK
THANKS TO THE COOLER TEMPS ALOFT VIA THE COLD POOL. IN FACT SOME
AREAS MAY NOT SEE THE 60S FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...LINE OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARE THE BIGGEST THREATS.

TODAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDDAY. COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH WITH WINDS SHIFTING W/SW THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DESPITE THE
RISK FOR A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING. MORNING PUSH LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED. ALSO LOW RISK OF A
THUNDERSTORM BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING. RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS LIKELY MOVED EAST OF THE
TERMINAL FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY WED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  LOW RISK FOR
EVEN A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL WITH
THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.

THU/FRI/SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. CONDITIONS COULD LOWER TO
MVFR QUICKLY IN A BRIEF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER OR TWO.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO CONVERT THE REST OF THE GALE WARNINGS FOR
THE OUTER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.
STILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING...SOME OF WHICH
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. VISIBILITY IMPROVES LATER
TODAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUING TO DIMINISH TONIGHT.

VISIBILITIES MAY BE LIMITED AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MODEST WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...BUT SPEEDS WILL BE NEAR SCA ESP ACROSS THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS. A FEW SHOWERS WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A
LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WITH SMALL HAIL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MODEST WESTERLY FLOW
AS A RESULT OF CLOSED LOW PRESSURE ACROSS QUEBEC.  ENOUGH COLD
ADVECTION OVER THE WATERS WILL BE PRESENT TO GENERATE PERIODS OF 25
KNOT WIND GUSTS.  MARGINAL SCA SEAS EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS
AT TIMES...BUT WITH GOOD VISIBILITY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO TRACK STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS
EVENING...BEFORE HIGH TIDE OCCURS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST /AROUND
03Z/ AND EAST COAST /ABOUT 06Z/. THIS RESULTS IN WINDS BEGINNING
TO SLACKEN AS HIGH TIDE APPROACHES. ALSO SYSTEM IS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE SO DURATION OF ONSHORE WINDS IS LIMITED.

ESTOFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE ROBUST AND REALISTIC THAN ETSS WITH
SURGE VALUES 1.0-1.5 FT AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. SEAS ALSO BUILDING
TO 10-15 FT JUST OFFSHORE. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE
AREAS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND SPLASH OVER. THUS WILL CONTINUE
WITH A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THESE LOCATIONS DURING THIS
EVENING AND EARLY TUE MORNING HIGH TIDES.

WINDS DO NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE FOR A
MODERATE COASTAL FLOOD EVENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 210721
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
321 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING...GIVES WAY TO A DRYING TREND THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS
EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER FOLLOWS THURSDAY THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND WITH JUST A SPOT SHOWER FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR LOOK TO HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THE
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS THIS MORNING. LOTS OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ALREADY
THIS MORNING. SO FAR...THE MAIN HAZARDS HAVE BEEN THE LIGHTNING
AND BRIEFLY TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING ALONG AT
35-45 MPH...SO AM NOT OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD FLOODING AT THIS TIME. SOME POOR DRAINAGE AREAS COULD
EXPERIENCE NUISANCE FLOODING FOR A TIME THIS MORNING. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR RAINFALL RATES THOUGH.

EXPECTING RAPID CLEARING BEHIND A WARM FRONT LATER THIS MORNING
WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 MOST
LOCATIONS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW EVEN THE COASTAL LOCATIONS TO
GET IN ON THE WARM TEMPERATURES...UNLIKE THIS PAST SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...

A SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR SOME SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN MA BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
WITH A COLD FRONT HAVING ALREADY PASSED THROUGH OUR REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH RAINFALL AS INSTABILITY
IS RATHER LIMITED. MUCH OF TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH SEASONABLE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCATTERED SHOWERS WED WITH A LOW RISK OF THUNDER/SMALL HAIL
* SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES WED
* UNSEASONABLY COOL THU-SUN WITH A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO AT TIMES

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  HIGH TEMPS SHOULD STILL REACH
INTO INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  WE WILL
SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT GIVEN DECENT FORCING AND SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY.  MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME IS WED AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.  ITS QUITE COLD ALOFT AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
VERY IMPRESSIVE AROUND 8C/KM!  IF WE CAN MUSTER A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
OF CAPE...MAY EVEN SEE AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.  CONFIDENCE
ON THUNDER IS LOW AT THIS POINT...BUT GIVEN COLD POOL ALOFT THERE IS
AT LEAST THIS RISK FOR SOME GRAUPEL/SMALL HAIL AND PERHAPS EVEN
GUSTY WINDS IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN
BY WED EVENING.


THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

ANOMALOUS CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW SETS UP ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND INTO QUEBEC.  THE RESULT WILL BE BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPS IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  OVERALL...HIGH TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S MUCH OF THE TIME BUT
SOME MODERATION IS POSSIBLE BY MONDAY.  AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES...THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME SHOULD FEATURE DRY WEATHER.
HOWEVER...GIVEN COLD POOL ALOFT A FEW SPOT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN SECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.  LOW RISK FOR EVEN A FEW WET SNOW FLAKES TO MIX IN FOR
A TIME ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT WOULD BE OF NO IMPACT.

THERE IS ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT.  WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SAT NIGHT/SUN.  MOST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE KEEPS THAT SYSTEM WELL TO OUR SOUTH.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS A
BIT CLOSER THEN THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE...BUT EVEN THAT WOULD KEEP
US DRY.  AGAIN...ODDS STRONGLY FAVOR KEEPING THIS SYSTEM SOUTH OR
OUR REGION GIVEN ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW SITTING JUST TO OUR NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...LINE OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARE THE BIGGEST THREATS.

TODAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDDAY. COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH WITH WINDS SHIFTING W/SW THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DESPITE THE
RISK FOR A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING. MORNING PUSH LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED. ALSO LOW RISK OF A
THUNDERSTORM BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING. RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS LIKELY MOVED EAST OF THE
TERMINAL FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY WED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  LOW RISK FOR
EVEN A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL WITH
THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.

THU/FRI/SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR DESPITE THE RISK FOR A
BRIEF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER OR TWO.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO CONVERT THE REST OF THE GALE WARNINGS FOR
THE OUTER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.
STILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING...SOME OF WHICH
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. VISIBILITY IMPROVES LATER
TODAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUING TO DIMINISH TONIGHT.

VISIBILITIES MAY BE LIMITED AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MODEST WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. A FEW SHOWERS WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH A LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WITH SMALL HAIL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MODEST WESTERLY FLOW AS
A RESULT OF CLOSED LOW PRESSURE ACROSS QUEBEC.  ENOUGH COLD
ADVECTION OVER THE WATERS WILL BE PRESENT TO GENERATE PERIODS OF 25
KNOT WIND GUSTS.  MARGINAL SCA SEAS EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS
AT TIMES...BUT WITH GOOD VISIBILITY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO TRACK STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS
EVENING...BEFORE HIGH TIDE OCCURS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST /AROUND
03Z/ AND EAST COAST /ABOUT 06Z/. THIS RESULTS IN WINDS BEGINNING
TO SLACKEN AS HIGH TIDE APPROACHES. ALSO SYSTEM IS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE SO DURATION OF ONSHORE WINDS IS LIMITED.

ESTOFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE ROBUST AND REALISTIC THAN ETSS WITH
SURGE VALUES 1.0-1.5 FT AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. SEAS ALSO BUILDING
TO 10-15 FT JUST OFFSHORE. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE
AREAS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND SPLASH OVER. THUS WILL CONTINUE
WITH A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THESE LOCATIONS DURING THIS
EVENING AND EARLY TUE MORNING HIGH TIDES.

WINDS DO NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE FOR A
MODERATE COASTAL FLOOD EVENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ235-237-
     251.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/FRANK
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...BELK/FRANK
MARINE...BELK/FRANK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 210721
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
321 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING...GIVES WAY TO A DRYING TREND THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS
EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER FOLLOWS THURSDAY THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND WITH JUST A SPOT SHOWER FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR LOOK TO HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THE
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS THIS MORNING. LOTS OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ALREADY
THIS MORNING. SO FAR...THE MAIN HAZARDS HAVE BEEN THE LIGHTNING
AND BRIEFLY TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING ALONG AT
35-45 MPH...SO AM NOT OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD FLOODING AT THIS TIME. SOME POOR DRAINAGE AREAS COULD
EXPERIENCE NUISANCE FLOODING FOR A TIME THIS MORNING. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR RAINFALL RATES THOUGH.

EXPECTING RAPID CLEARING BEHIND A WARM FRONT LATER THIS MORNING
WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 MOST
LOCATIONS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW EVEN THE COASTAL LOCATIONS TO
GET IN ON THE WARM TEMPERATURES...UNLIKE THIS PAST SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...

A SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR SOME SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN MA BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
WITH A COLD FRONT HAVING ALREADY PASSED THROUGH OUR REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH RAINFALL AS INSTABILITY
IS RATHER LIMITED. MUCH OF TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH SEASONABLE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCATTERED SHOWERS WED WITH A LOW RISK OF THUNDER/SMALL HAIL
* SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES WED
* UNSEASONABLY COOL THU-SUN WITH A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO AT TIMES

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  HIGH TEMPS SHOULD STILL REACH
INTO INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  WE WILL
SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT GIVEN DECENT FORCING AND SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY.  MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME IS WED AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.  ITS QUITE COLD ALOFT AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
VERY IMPRESSIVE AROUND 8C/KM!  IF WE CAN MUSTER A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
OF CAPE...MAY EVEN SEE AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.  CONFIDENCE
ON THUNDER IS LOW AT THIS POINT...BUT GIVEN COLD POOL ALOFT THERE IS
AT LEAST THIS RISK FOR SOME GRAUPEL/SMALL HAIL AND PERHAPS EVEN
GUSTY WINDS IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN
BY WED EVENING.


THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

ANOMALOUS CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW SETS UP ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND INTO QUEBEC.  THE RESULT WILL BE BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPS IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  OVERALL...HIGH TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S MUCH OF THE TIME BUT
SOME MODERATION IS POSSIBLE BY MONDAY.  AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES...THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME SHOULD FEATURE DRY WEATHER.
HOWEVER...GIVEN COLD POOL ALOFT A FEW SPOT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN SECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.  LOW RISK FOR EVEN A FEW WET SNOW FLAKES TO MIX IN FOR
A TIME ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT WOULD BE OF NO IMPACT.

THERE IS ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT.  WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SAT NIGHT/SUN.  MOST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE KEEPS THAT SYSTEM WELL TO OUR SOUTH.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS A
BIT CLOSER THEN THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE...BUT EVEN THAT WOULD KEEP
US DRY.  AGAIN...ODDS STRONGLY FAVOR KEEPING THIS SYSTEM SOUTH OR
OUR REGION GIVEN ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW SITTING JUST TO OUR NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...LINE OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARE THE BIGGEST THREATS.

TODAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDDAY. COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH WITH WINDS SHIFTING W/SW THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DESPITE THE
RISK FOR A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING. MORNING PUSH LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED. ALSO LOW RISK OF A
THUNDERSTORM BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING. RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS LIKELY MOVED EAST OF THE
TERMINAL FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY WED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  LOW RISK FOR
EVEN A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL WITH
THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.

THU/FRI/SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR DESPITE THE RISK FOR A
BRIEF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER OR TWO.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO CONVERT THE REST OF THE GALE WARNINGS FOR
THE OUTER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.
STILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING...SOME OF WHICH
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. VISIBILITY IMPROVES LATER
TODAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUING TO DIMINISH TONIGHT.

VISIBILITIES MAY BE LIMITED AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MODEST WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. A FEW SHOWERS WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH A LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WITH SMALL HAIL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MODEST WESTERLY FLOW AS
A RESULT OF CLOSED LOW PRESSURE ACROSS QUEBEC.  ENOUGH COLD
ADVECTION OVER THE WATERS WILL BE PRESENT TO GENERATE PERIODS OF 25
KNOT WIND GUSTS.  MARGINAL SCA SEAS EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS
AT TIMES...BUT WITH GOOD VISIBILITY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO TRACK STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS
EVENING...BEFORE HIGH TIDE OCCURS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST /AROUND
03Z/ AND EAST COAST /ABOUT 06Z/. THIS RESULTS IN WINDS BEGINNING
TO SLACKEN AS HIGH TIDE APPROACHES. ALSO SYSTEM IS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE SO DURATION OF ONSHORE WINDS IS LIMITED.

ESTOFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE ROBUST AND REALISTIC THAN ETSS WITH
SURGE VALUES 1.0-1.5 FT AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. SEAS ALSO BUILDING
TO 10-15 FT JUST OFFSHORE. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE
AREAS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND SPLASH OVER. THUS WILL CONTINUE
WITH A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THESE LOCATIONS DURING THIS
EVENING AND EARLY TUE MORNING HIGH TIDES.

WINDS DO NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE FOR A
MODERATE COASTAL FLOOD EVENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ235-237-
     251.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/FRANK
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...BELK/FRANK
MARINE...BELK/FRANK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 210721
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
321 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING...GIVES WAY TO A DRYING TREND THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS
EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER FOLLOWS THURSDAY THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND WITH JUST A SPOT SHOWER FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR LOOK TO HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THE
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS THIS MORNING. LOTS OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ALREADY
THIS MORNING. SO FAR...THE MAIN HAZARDS HAVE BEEN THE LIGHTNING
AND BRIEFLY TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING ALONG AT
35-45 MPH...SO AM NOT OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD FLOODING AT THIS TIME. SOME POOR DRAINAGE AREAS COULD
EXPERIENCE NUISANCE FLOODING FOR A TIME THIS MORNING. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR RAINFALL RATES THOUGH.

EXPECTING RAPID CLEARING BEHIND A WARM FRONT LATER THIS MORNING
WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 MOST
LOCATIONS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW EVEN THE COASTAL LOCATIONS TO
GET IN ON THE WARM TEMPERATURES...UNLIKE THIS PAST SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...

A SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR SOME SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN MA BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
WITH A COLD FRONT HAVING ALREADY PASSED THROUGH OUR REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH RAINFALL AS INSTABILITY
IS RATHER LIMITED. MUCH OF TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH SEASONABLE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCATTERED SHOWERS WED WITH A LOW RISK OF THUNDER/SMALL HAIL
* SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES WED
* UNSEASONABLY COOL THU-SUN WITH A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO AT TIMES

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  HIGH TEMPS SHOULD STILL REACH
INTO INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  WE WILL
SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT GIVEN DECENT FORCING AND SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY.  MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME IS WED AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.  ITS QUITE COLD ALOFT AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
VERY IMPRESSIVE AROUND 8C/KM!  IF WE CAN MUSTER A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
OF CAPE...MAY EVEN SEE AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.  CONFIDENCE
ON THUNDER IS LOW AT THIS POINT...BUT GIVEN COLD POOL ALOFT THERE IS
AT LEAST THIS RISK FOR SOME GRAUPEL/SMALL HAIL AND PERHAPS EVEN
GUSTY WINDS IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN
BY WED EVENING.


THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

ANOMALOUS CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW SETS UP ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND INTO QUEBEC.  THE RESULT WILL BE BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPS IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  OVERALL...HIGH TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S MUCH OF THE TIME BUT
SOME MODERATION IS POSSIBLE BY MONDAY.  AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES...THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME SHOULD FEATURE DRY WEATHER.
HOWEVER...GIVEN COLD POOL ALOFT A FEW SPOT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN SECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.  LOW RISK FOR EVEN A FEW WET SNOW FLAKES TO MIX IN FOR
A TIME ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT WOULD BE OF NO IMPACT.

THERE IS ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT.  WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SAT NIGHT/SUN.  MOST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE KEEPS THAT SYSTEM WELL TO OUR SOUTH.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS A
BIT CLOSER THEN THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE...BUT EVEN THAT WOULD KEEP
US DRY.  AGAIN...ODDS STRONGLY FAVOR KEEPING THIS SYSTEM SOUTH OR
OUR REGION GIVEN ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW SITTING JUST TO OUR NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...LINE OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARE THE BIGGEST THREATS.

TODAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDDAY. COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH WITH WINDS SHIFTING W/SW THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DESPITE THE
RISK FOR A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING. MORNING PUSH LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED. ALSO LOW RISK OF A
THUNDERSTORM BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING. RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS LIKELY MOVED EAST OF THE
TERMINAL FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY WED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  LOW RISK FOR
EVEN A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL WITH
THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.

THU/FRI/SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR DESPITE THE RISK FOR A
BRIEF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER OR TWO.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO CONVERT THE REST OF THE GALE WARNINGS FOR
THE OUTER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.
STILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING...SOME OF WHICH
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. VISIBILITY IMPROVES LATER
TODAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUING TO DIMINISH TONIGHT.

VISIBILITIES MAY BE LIMITED AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MODEST WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. A FEW SHOWERS WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH A LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WITH SMALL HAIL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MODEST WESTERLY FLOW AS
A RESULT OF CLOSED LOW PRESSURE ACROSS QUEBEC.  ENOUGH COLD
ADVECTION OVER THE WATERS WILL BE PRESENT TO GENERATE PERIODS OF 25
KNOT WIND GUSTS.  MARGINAL SCA SEAS EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS
AT TIMES...BUT WITH GOOD VISIBILITY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO TRACK STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS
EVENING...BEFORE HIGH TIDE OCCURS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST /AROUND
03Z/ AND EAST COAST /ABOUT 06Z/. THIS RESULTS IN WINDS BEGINNING
TO SLACKEN AS HIGH TIDE APPROACHES. ALSO SYSTEM IS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE SO DURATION OF ONSHORE WINDS IS LIMITED.

ESTOFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE ROBUST AND REALISTIC THAN ETSS WITH
SURGE VALUES 1.0-1.5 FT AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. SEAS ALSO BUILDING
TO 10-15 FT JUST OFFSHORE. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE
AREAS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND SPLASH OVER. THUS WILL CONTINUE
WITH A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THESE LOCATIONS DURING THIS
EVENING AND EARLY TUE MORNING HIGH TIDES.

WINDS DO NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE FOR A
MODERATE COASTAL FLOOD EVENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ235-237-
     251.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/FRANK
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...BELK/FRANK
MARINE...BELK/FRANK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 210721
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
321 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING...GIVES WAY TO A DRYING TREND THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS
EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER FOLLOWS THURSDAY THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND WITH JUST A SPOT SHOWER FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR LOOK TO HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THE
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS THIS MORNING. LOTS OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ALREADY
THIS MORNING. SO FAR...THE MAIN HAZARDS HAVE BEEN THE LIGHTNING
AND BRIEFLY TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING ALONG AT
35-45 MPH...SO AM NOT OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD FLOODING AT THIS TIME. SOME POOR DRAINAGE AREAS COULD
EXPERIENCE NUISANCE FLOODING FOR A TIME THIS MORNING. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR RAINFALL RATES THOUGH.

EXPECTING RAPID CLEARING BEHIND A WARM FRONT LATER THIS MORNING
WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 MOST
LOCATIONS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW EVEN THE COASTAL LOCATIONS TO
GET IN ON THE WARM TEMPERATURES...UNLIKE THIS PAST SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...

A SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR SOME SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN MA BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
WITH A COLD FRONT HAVING ALREADY PASSED THROUGH OUR REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH RAINFALL AS INSTABILITY
IS RATHER LIMITED. MUCH OF TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH SEASONABLE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCATTERED SHOWERS WED WITH A LOW RISK OF THUNDER/SMALL HAIL
* SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES WED
* UNSEASONABLY COOL THU-SUN WITH A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO AT TIMES

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  HIGH TEMPS SHOULD STILL REACH
INTO INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  WE WILL
SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT GIVEN DECENT FORCING AND SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY.  MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME IS WED AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.  ITS QUITE COLD ALOFT AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
VERY IMPRESSIVE AROUND 8C/KM!  IF WE CAN MUSTER A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
OF CAPE...MAY EVEN SEE AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.  CONFIDENCE
ON THUNDER IS LOW AT THIS POINT...BUT GIVEN COLD POOL ALOFT THERE IS
AT LEAST THIS RISK FOR SOME GRAUPEL/SMALL HAIL AND PERHAPS EVEN
GUSTY WINDS IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN
BY WED EVENING.


THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

ANOMALOUS CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW SETS UP ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND INTO QUEBEC.  THE RESULT WILL BE BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPS IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  OVERALL...HIGH TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S MUCH OF THE TIME BUT
SOME MODERATION IS POSSIBLE BY MONDAY.  AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES...THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME SHOULD FEATURE DRY WEATHER.
HOWEVER...GIVEN COLD POOL ALOFT A FEW SPOT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN SECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.  LOW RISK FOR EVEN A FEW WET SNOW FLAKES TO MIX IN FOR
A TIME ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT WOULD BE OF NO IMPACT.

THERE IS ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT.  WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SAT NIGHT/SUN.  MOST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE KEEPS THAT SYSTEM WELL TO OUR SOUTH.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS A
BIT CLOSER THEN THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE...BUT EVEN THAT WOULD KEEP
US DRY.  AGAIN...ODDS STRONGLY FAVOR KEEPING THIS SYSTEM SOUTH OR
OUR REGION GIVEN ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW SITTING JUST TO OUR NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...LINE OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARE THE BIGGEST THREATS.

TODAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDDAY. COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH WITH WINDS SHIFTING W/SW THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DESPITE THE
RISK FOR A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING. MORNING PUSH LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED. ALSO LOW RISK OF A
THUNDERSTORM BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING. RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS LIKELY MOVED EAST OF THE
TERMINAL FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY WED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  LOW RISK FOR
EVEN A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL WITH
THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.

THU/FRI/SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR DESPITE THE RISK FOR A
BRIEF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER OR TWO.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO CONVERT THE REST OF THE GALE WARNINGS FOR
THE OUTER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.
STILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING...SOME OF WHICH
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. VISIBILITY IMPROVES LATER
TODAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUING TO DIMINISH TONIGHT.

VISIBILITIES MAY BE LIMITED AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MODEST WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. A FEW SHOWERS WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH A LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WITH SMALL HAIL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MODEST WESTERLY FLOW AS
A RESULT OF CLOSED LOW PRESSURE ACROSS QUEBEC.  ENOUGH COLD
ADVECTION OVER THE WATERS WILL BE PRESENT TO GENERATE PERIODS OF 25
KNOT WIND GUSTS.  MARGINAL SCA SEAS EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS
AT TIMES...BUT WITH GOOD VISIBILITY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO TRACK STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS
EVENING...BEFORE HIGH TIDE OCCURS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST /AROUND
03Z/ AND EAST COAST /ABOUT 06Z/. THIS RESULTS IN WINDS BEGINNING
TO SLACKEN AS HIGH TIDE APPROACHES. ALSO SYSTEM IS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE SO DURATION OF ONSHORE WINDS IS LIMITED.

ESTOFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE ROBUST AND REALISTIC THAN ETSS WITH
SURGE VALUES 1.0-1.5 FT AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. SEAS ALSO BUILDING
TO 10-15 FT JUST OFFSHORE. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE
AREAS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND SPLASH OVER. THUS WILL CONTINUE
WITH A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THESE LOCATIONS DURING THIS
EVENING AND EARLY TUE MORNING HIGH TIDES.

WINDS DO NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE FOR A
MODERATE COASTAL FLOOD EVENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ235-237-
     251.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/FRANK
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...BELK/FRANK
MARINE...BELK/FRANK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 210239
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1039 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH
EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH MILD TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING GIVES
WAY TO A DRYING TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER
FOLLOWS THURSDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH JUST A SPOT SHOWER FROM
TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
1030 PM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST THIS EVENING. DID TWEAK THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO REFLECT THE LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS.

THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION.
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR REMAIN BULLISH ON PRE-DAWN THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA...INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR PROGRESS OF THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTER OVER PA/NY THIS EVENING...SINCE THIS IS WHERE THE ENERGY
WILL COME FROM. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. HEAVY
RAINFALL IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THOUGH. DEPENDING ON WHERE
THIS HAPPENS...AND HOW FAST...WE COULD SEE SOME FLOODING ISSUES
LATE TONIGHT. MAINLY EXPECTING NUISANCE FLOODING...BUT COULD BE
MORE IF THE HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS WITHIN SOME URBAN AREAS...SUCH
AS FALL RIVER AND NEW BEDFORD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THESE HEAVIER SHOWERS WERE BLOSSOMING ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET/DRY SLOT ALLOWING FOR INCREASED INSTABILITY.  GIVEN SHOWALTER
INDICES DROPPING BELOW ZERO AND SOME ELEVATED CAPE...A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.  WE PROBABLY WILL SEE A BIT
OF A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY SOMETIME LATER THIS EVENING UNTIL THE NEXT
BATCH OF ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/MID
ATLANTIC TRACKS NORTHEAST. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...THIS MAY POSE A HIGHER RISK OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL TOWARD DAYBREAK.  THIS IS DISCUSSED FURTHER IN
THE NEXT SECTION.

FINALLY...AREAS OF FOG MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE.  BEST CHANCE FOR
THIS WILL BE LATER THIS EVENING WHEN WILL LIKELY SEE A LULL IN THE
ACTIVITY AND WINDS DIMINISH A BIT.  CONFIDENCE AND AREAL COVERAGE
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY...BUT LATER SHIFTS
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
OVERNIGHT...THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA LOOK TO WARM SECTOR DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.  THIS WOULD INCLUDE RHODE ISLAND...SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CONNECTICUT.  THIS
WILL NOT ONLY BRING TEMPERATURES UP THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT WILL
ALSO ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE.

K INDICES INCREASE AND SHOWALTER INDICES DECREASE AND ALONG WITH THE
TOTAL TOTALS IN THE 50S THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALREADY IN PLACE.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDER EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.

EXPECT RAPID CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 MOST LOCATIONS.  WESTERLY WINDS WILL
ALLOW EVEN THE COASTAL LOCATIONS TO GET IN ON THE WARM
TEMPERATURES...UNLIKE SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCATTERED SHOWERS WED WITH A LOW RISK OF THUNDER/SMALL HAIL
* SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES WED
* UNSEASONABLY COOL THU-SUN WITH A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO AT TIMES

DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT...

A SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TUE NIGHT.  MODELS DO
NOT SHOW MUCH QPF AS INSTABILITY IS RATHER LIMITED.  MAY SEE A FEW
SPOT SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MA PIKE...BUT MUCH OF THE
NIGHT SHOULD FEATURE DRY WEATHER IN A GIVEN LOCATION.
LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  HIGH TEMPS SHOULD STILL REACH
INTO INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  WE WILL
SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT GIVEN DECENT FORCING AND SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY.  MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME IS WED AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.  ITS QUITE COLD ALOFT AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
VERY IMPRESSIVE AROUND 8C/KM!  IF WE CAN MUSTER A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
OF CAPE...MAY EVEN SEE AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.  CONFIDENCE
ON THUNDER IS LOW AT THIS POINT...BUT GIVEN COLD POOL ALOFT THERE IS
AT LEAST THIS RISK FOR SOME GRAUPEL/SMALL HAIL AND PERHAPS EVEN
GUSTY WINDS IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN
BY WED EVENING.


THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

ANOMALOUS CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW SETS UP ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND INTO QUEBEC.  THE RESULT WILL BE BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPS IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  OVERALL...HIGH TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S MUCH OF THE TIME BUT
SOME MODERATION IS POSSIBLE BY MONDAY.  AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES...THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME SHOULD FEATURE DRY WEATHER.
HOWEVER...GIVEN COLD POOL ALOFT A FEW SPOT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN SECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.  LOW RISK FOR EVEN A FEW WET SNOW FLAKES TO MIX IN FOR
A TIME ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT WOULD BE OF NO IMPACT.

THERE IS ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT.  WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SAT NIGHT/SUN.  MOST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE KEEPS THAT SYSTEM WELL TO OUR SOUTH.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS A
BIT CLOSER THEN THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE...BUT EVEN THAT WOULD KEEP
US DRY.  AGAIN...ODDS STRONGLY FAVOR KEEPING THIS SYSTEM SOUTH OR
OUR REGION GIVEN ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW SITTING JUST TO OUR NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED. LULL FROM RAINFALL LIKELY SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WHERE SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE. ANOTHER
BATCH OF SHOWERS WITH A HIGHER RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES IN
TOWARD DAYBREAK. E/SE-WINDS DIMINISHING. LLWS LIKELY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDDAY. COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WITH WINDS SHIFTING W/SW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONCERNED ABOUT A PERIOD OF ONE HALF
MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY OVERNIGHT BUT TIMING UNCERTAIN.  IT MIGHT
AFFECT THE MORNING PUSH.  ALSO LOW RISK OF A THUNDERSTORM BETWEEN 8
AND 12Z.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  CONCERNED ABOUT A PERIOD OF ONE
HALF MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY OVERNIGHT BUT TIMING UNCERTAIN.  LOW
RISK OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

TUE NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DESPITE THE
RISK FOR A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO.

WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY WED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  LOW RISK FOR
EVEN A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL WITH
THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.

THU/FRI/SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR DESPITE THE RISK FOR A
BRIEF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER OR TWO.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ALL THE WATERS
OUTSIDE BOSTON HARBOR AND NARRAGANSETT BAY. CURRENT PLAN IS TO
REPLACE SOME OF THE GALE WARNINGS WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
TOWARD MIDNIGHT...WHICH IS RIGHT ON SCHEDULE WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THIS IS FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT FOR THE OUTER WATERS.

RAIN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH STEADY RAIN COMING TO AN END LATE
THIS EVENING AND TURNING MORE SHOWERY THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY.  A FEW
ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...WITH A
BETTER CHANCE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.  VISIBILITIES MAY BE LIMITED AT
TIMES.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MODEST WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.  A FEW SHOWERS WED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH A LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WITH SMALL
HAIL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MODEST WESTERLY FLOW AS
A RESULT OF CLOSED LOW PRESSURE ACROSS QUEBEC.  ENOUGH COLD
ADVECTION OVER THE WATERS WILL BE PRESENT TO GENERATE PERIODS OF 25
KNOT WIND GUSTS.  MARGINAL SCA SEAS EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS
AT TIMES...BUT WITH GOOD VISIBILITY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO TRACK STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS
EVENING...BEFORE HIGH TIDE OCCURS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST /AROUND
03Z/ AND EAST COAST /ABOUT 06Z/. THIS RESULTS IN WINDS BEGINNING
TO SLACKEN AS HIGH TIDE APPROACHES. ALSO SYSTEM IS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE SO DURATION OF ONSHORE WINDS IS LIMITED.

ESTOFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE ROBUST AND REALISTIC THAN ETSS WITH
SURGE VALUES 1.0-1.5 FT AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. SEAS ALSO BUILDING
TO 10-15 FT JUST OFFSHORE. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE
AREAS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND SPLASH OVER. THUS WILL CONTINUE
WITH A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THESE LOCATIONS DURING THIS
EVENING AND EARLY TUE MORNING HIGH TIDES.

WINDS DO NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE FOR A
MODERATE COASTAL FLOOD EVENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-015-
     016-019-022-024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ020-
     021.
RI...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR RIZ002-
     004>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ231>235-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...BELK/FRANK
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...BELK/FRANK/RLG
MARINE...BELK/FRANK/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 210239
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1039 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH
EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH MILD TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING GIVES
WAY TO A DRYING TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER
FOLLOWS THURSDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH JUST A SPOT SHOWER FROM
TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
1030 PM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST THIS EVENING. DID TWEAK THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO REFLECT THE LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS.

THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION.
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR REMAIN BULLISH ON PRE-DAWN THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA...INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR PROGRESS OF THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTER OVER PA/NY THIS EVENING...SINCE THIS IS WHERE THE ENERGY
WILL COME FROM. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. HEAVY
RAINFALL IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THOUGH. DEPENDING ON WHERE
THIS HAPPENS...AND HOW FAST...WE COULD SEE SOME FLOODING ISSUES
LATE TONIGHT. MAINLY EXPECTING NUISANCE FLOODING...BUT COULD BE
MORE IF THE HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS WITHIN SOME URBAN AREAS...SUCH
AS FALL RIVER AND NEW BEDFORD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THESE HEAVIER SHOWERS WERE BLOSSOMING ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET/DRY SLOT ALLOWING FOR INCREASED INSTABILITY.  GIVEN SHOWALTER
INDICES DROPPING BELOW ZERO AND SOME ELEVATED CAPE...A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.  WE PROBABLY WILL SEE A BIT
OF A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY SOMETIME LATER THIS EVENING UNTIL THE NEXT
BATCH OF ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/MID
ATLANTIC TRACKS NORTHEAST. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...THIS MAY POSE A HIGHER RISK OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL TOWARD DAYBREAK.  THIS IS DISCUSSED FURTHER IN
THE NEXT SECTION.

FINALLY...AREAS OF FOG MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE.  BEST CHANCE FOR
THIS WILL BE LATER THIS EVENING WHEN WILL LIKELY SEE A LULL IN THE
ACTIVITY AND WINDS DIMINISH A BIT.  CONFIDENCE AND AREAL COVERAGE
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY...BUT LATER SHIFTS
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
OVERNIGHT...THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA LOOK TO WARM SECTOR DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.  THIS WOULD INCLUDE RHODE ISLAND...SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CONNECTICUT.  THIS
WILL NOT ONLY BRING TEMPERATURES UP THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT WILL
ALSO ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE.

K INDICES INCREASE AND SHOWALTER INDICES DECREASE AND ALONG WITH THE
TOTAL TOTALS IN THE 50S THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALREADY IN PLACE.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDER EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.

EXPECT RAPID CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 MOST LOCATIONS.  WESTERLY WINDS WILL
ALLOW EVEN THE COASTAL LOCATIONS TO GET IN ON THE WARM
TEMPERATURES...UNLIKE SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCATTERED SHOWERS WED WITH A LOW RISK OF THUNDER/SMALL HAIL
* SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES WED
* UNSEASONABLY COOL THU-SUN WITH A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO AT TIMES

DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT...

A SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TUE NIGHT.  MODELS DO
NOT SHOW MUCH QPF AS INSTABILITY IS RATHER LIMITED.  MAY SEE A FEW
SPOT SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MA PIKE...BUT MUCH OF THE
NIGHT SHOULD FEATURE DRY WEATHER IN A GIVEN LOCATION.
LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  HIGH TEMPS SHOULD STILL REACH
INTO INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  WE WILL
SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT GIVEN DECENT FORCING AND SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY.  MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME IS WED AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.  ITS QUITE COLD ALOFT AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
VERY IMPRESSIVE AROUND 8C/KM!  IF WE CAN MUSTER A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
OF CAPE...MAY EVEN SEE AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.  CONFIDENCE
ON THUNDER IS LOW AT THIS POINT...BUT GIVEN COLD POOL ALOFT THERE IS
AT LEAST THIS RISK FOR SOME GRAUPEL/SMALL HAIL AND PERHAPS EVEN
GUSTY WINDS IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN
BY WED EVENING.


THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

ANOMALOUS CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW SETS UP ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND INTO QUEBEC.  THE RESULT WILL BE BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPS IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  OVERALL...HIGH TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S MUCH OF THE TIME BUT
SOME MODERATION IS POSSIBLE BY MONDAY.  AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES...THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME SHOULD FEATURE DRY WEATHER.
HOWEVER...GIVEN COLD POOL ALOFT A FEW SPOT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN SECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.  LOW RISK FOR EVEN A FEW WET SNOW FLAKES TO MIX IN FOR
A TIME ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT WOULD BE OF NO IMPACT.

THERE IS ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT.  WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SAT NIGHT/SUN.  MOST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE KEEPS THAT SYSTEM WELL TO OUR SOUTH.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS A
BIT CLOSER THEN THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE...BUT EVEN THAT WOULD KEEP
US DRY.  AGAIN...ODDS STRONGLY FAVOR KEEPING THIS SYSTEM SOUTH OR
OUR REGION GIVEN ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW SITTING JUST TO OUR NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED. LULL FROM RAINFALL LIKELY SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WHERE SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE. ANOTHER
BATCH OF SHOWERS WITH A HIGHER RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES IN
TOWARD DAYBREAK. E/SE-WINDS DIMINISHING. LLWS LIKELY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDDAY. COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WITH WINDS SHIFTING W/SW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONCERNED ABOUT A PERIOD OF ONE HALF
MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY OVERNIGHT BUT TIMING UNCERTAIN.  IT MIGHT
AFFECT THE MORNING PUSH.  ALSO LOW RISK OF A THUNDERSTORM BETWEEN 8
AND 12Z.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  CONCERNED ABOUT A PERIOD OF ONE
HALF MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY OVERNIGHT BUT TIMING UNCERTAIN.  LOW
RISK OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

TUE NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DESPITE THE
RISK FOR A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO.

WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY WED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  LOW RISK FOR
EVEN A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL WITH
THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.

THU/FRI/SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR DESPITE THE RISK FOR A
BRIEF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER OR TWO.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ALL THE WATERS
OUTSIDE BOSTON HARBOR AND NARRAGANSETT BAY. CURRENT PLAN IS TO
REPLACE SOME OF THE GALE WARNINGS WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
TOWARD MIDNIGHT...WHICH IS RIGHT ON SCHEDULE WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THIS IS FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT FOR THE OUTER WATERS.

RAIN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH STEADY RAIN COMING TO AN END LATE
THIS EVENING AND TURNING MORE SHOWERY THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY.  A FEW
ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...WITH A
BETTER CHANCE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.  VISIBILITIES MAY BE LIMITED AT
TIMES.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MODEST WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.  A FEW SHOWERS WED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH A LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WITH SMALL
HAIL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MODEST WESTERLY FLOW AS
A RESULT OF CLOSED LOW PRESSURE ACROSS QUEBEC.  ENOUGH COLD
ADVECTION OVER THE WATERS WILL BE PRESENT TO GENERATE PERIODS OF 25
KNOT WIND GUSTS.  MARGINAL SCA SEAS EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS
AT TIMES...BUT WITH GOOD VISIBILITY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO TRACK STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS
EVENING...BEFORE HIGH TIDE OCCURS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST /AROUND
03Z/ AND EAST COAST /ABOUT 06Z/. THIS RESULTS IN WINDS BEGINNING
TO SLACKEN AS HIGH TIDE APPROACHES. ALSO SYSTEM IS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE SO DURATION OF ONSHORE WINDS IS LIMITED.

ESTOFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE ROBUST AND REALISTIC THAN ETSS WITH
SURGE VALUES 1.0-1.5 FT AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. SEAS ALSO BUILDING
TO 10-15 FT JUST OFFSHORE. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE
AREAS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND SPLASH OVER. THUS WILL CONTINUE
WITH A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THESE LOCATIONS DURING THIS
EVENING AND EARLY TUE MORNING HIGH TIDES.

WINDS DO NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE FOR A
MODERATE COASTAL FLOOD EVENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-015-
     016-019-022-024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ020-
     021.
RI...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR RIZ002-
     004>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ231>235-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...BELK/FRANK
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...BELK/FRANK/RLG
MARINE...BELK/FRANK/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 202318
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
717 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH
EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH MILD TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING GIVES
WAY TO A DRYING TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER
FOLLOWS THURSDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH JUST A SPOT SHOWER FROM
TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...

715 PM UPDATE...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL HAVE BLOSSOMED OVER THE
LAST HOUR OR SO ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.  SHOULD SEE THESE
SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WORK INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST MA SHORTLY.  WHILE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED...NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING IN TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY OCCUR.

THESE HEAVIER SHOWERS WERE BLOSSOMING ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET/DRY SLOT ALLOWING FOR INCREASED INSTABILITY.  GIVEN SHOWALTER
INDICES DROPPING BELOW ZERO AND SOME ELEVATED CAPE...A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.  WE PROBABLY WILL SEE A BIT
OF A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY SOMETIME LATER THIS EVENING UNTIL THE NEXT
BATCH OF ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/MID
ATLANTIC TRACKS NORTHEAST. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...THIS MAY POSE A HIGHER RISK OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL TOWARD DAYBREAK.  THIS IS DISCUSSED FURTHER IN
THE NEXT SECTION.

FINALLY...AREAS OF FOG MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE.  BEST CHANCE FOR
THIS WILL BE LATER THIS EVENING WHEN WILL LIKELY SEE A LULL IN THE
ACTIVITY AND WINDS DIMINISH A BIT.  CONFIDENCE AND AREAL COVERAGE
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY...BUT LATER SHIFTS
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
OVERNIGHT...THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA LOOK TO WARM SECTOR DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.  THIS WOULD INCLUDE RHODE ISLAND...SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CONNECTICUT.  THIS
WILL NOT ONLY BRING TEMPERATURES UP THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT WILL
ALSO ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE.

K INDICES INCREASE AND SHOWALTER INDICES DECREASE AND ALONG WITH THE
TOTAL TOTALS IN THE 50S THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALREADY IN PLACE.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDER EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.

EXPECT RAPID CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 MOST LOCATIONS.  WESTERLY WINDS WILL
ALLOW EVEN THE COASTAL LOCATIONS TO GET IN ON THE WARM
TEMPERATURES...UNLIKE SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCATTERED SHOWERS WED WITH A LOW RISK OF THUNDER/SMALL HAIL
* SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES WED
* UNSEASONABLY COOL THU-SUN WITH A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO AT TIMES

DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT...

A SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TUE NIGHT.  MODELS DO
NOT SHOW MUCH QPF AS INSTABILITY IS RATHER LIMITED.  MAY SEE A FEW
SPOT SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MA PIKE...BUT MUCH OF THE
NIGHT SHOULD FEATURE DRY WEATHER IN A GIVEN LOCATION.
LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  HIGH TEMPS SHOULD STILL REACH
INTO INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  WE WILL
SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT GIVEN DECENT FORCING AND SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY.  MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME IS WED AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.  ITS QUITE COLD ALOFT AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
VERY IMPRESSIVE AROUND 8C/KM!  IF WE CAN MUSTER A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
OF CAPE...MAY EVEN SEE AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.  CONFIDENCE
ON THUNDER IS LOW AT THIS POINT...BUT GIVEN COLD POOL ALOFT THERE IS
AT LEAST THIS RISK FOR SOME GRAUPEL/SMALL HAIL AND PERHAPS EVEN
GUSTY WINDS IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN
BY WED EVENING.


THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

ANOMALOUS CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW SETS UP ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND INTO QUEBEC.  THE RESULT WILL BE BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPS IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  OVERALL...HIGH TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S MUCH OF THE TIME BUT
SOME MODERATION IS POSSIBLE BY MONDAY.  AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES...THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME SHOULD FEATURE DRY WEATHER.
HOWEVER...GIVEN COLD POOL ALOFT A FEW SPOT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN SECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.  LOW RISK FOR EVEN A FEW WET SNOW FLAKES TO MIX IN FOR
A TIME ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT WOULD BE OF NO IMPACT.

THERE IS ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT.  WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SAT NIGHT/SUN.  MOST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE KEEPS THAT SYSTEM WELL TO OUR SOUTH.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS A
BIT CLOSER THEN THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE...BUT EVEN THAT WOULD KEEP
US DRY.  AGAIN...ODDS STRONGLY FAVOR KEEPING THIS SYSTEM SOUTH OR
OUR REGION GIVEN ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW SITTING JUST TO OUR NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS
EVENING.  LULL IN ACTIVITY LIKELY LATER THIS EVENING...WHERE SOME
LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE.  ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS WITH A
HIGHER RISK OF THUNDER MOVES IN TOWARD DAYBREAK. E/SE-WINDS
DIMINISHING. LLWS LIKELY TO START.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDDAY. COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WITH WINDS SHIFTING W/SW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONCERNED ABOUT A PERIOD OF ONE HALF
MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY OVERNIGHT BUT TIMING UNCERTAIN.  IT MIGHT
AFFECT THE MORNING PUSH.  ALSO LOW RISK OF A THUNDERSTORM BETWEEN 8
AND 12Z.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  CONCERNED ABOUT A PERIOD OF ONE
HALF MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY OVERNIGHT BUT TIMING UNCERTAIN.  LOW
RISK OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

TUE NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DESPITE THE
RISK FOR A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO.

WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY WED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  LOW RISK FOR
EVEN A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL WITH
THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.

THU/FRI/SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR DESPITE THE RISK FOR A
BRIEF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER OR TWO.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.  GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ALL THE WATERS
OUTSIDE BOSTON HARBOR AND NARRAGANSETT BAY.  THIS IS FOR WIND GUSTS
UP TO 40 KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.  FOLLOWING THE EXPIRATION OF THE WARNING...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR SEAS GREATER THAN 5 FEET...IF
NOT A FEW LINGERING GUSTS TO 25 KTS.

RAIN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH STEADY RAIN COMING TO AN END LATE
THIS EVENING AND TURNING MORE SHOWERY THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY.  A FEW
ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...WITH A
BETTER CHANCE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.  VISIBILITIES MAY BE LIMITED AT
TIMES.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MODEST WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.  A FEW SHOWERS WED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH A LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WITH SMALL
HAIL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MODEST WESTERLY FLOW AS
A RESULT OF CLOSED LOW PRESSURE ACROSS QUEBEC.  ENOUGH COLD
ADVECTION OVER THE WATERS WILL BE PRESENT TO GENERATE PERIODS OF 25
KNOT WIND GUSTS.  MARGINAL SCA SEAS EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS
AT TIMES...BUT WITH GOOD VISIBILITY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO TRACK STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS
EVENING...BEFORE HIGH TIDE OCCURS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST /AROUND
03Z/ AND EAST COAST /ABOUT 06Z/. THIS RESULTS IN WINDS BEGINNING
TO SLACKEN AS HIGH TIDE APPROACHES. ALSO SYSTEM IS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE SO DURATION OF ONSHORE WINDS IS LIMITED.

ESTOFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE ROBUST AND REALISTIC THAN ETSS WITH
SURGE VALUES 1.0-1.5 FT AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. SEAS ALSO BUILDING
TO 10-15 FT JUST OFFSHORE. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE
AREAS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND SPLASH OVER. THUS WILL CONTINUE
WITH A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THESE LOCATIONS DURING THIS
EVENING AND EARLY TUE MORNING HIGH TIDES.

WINDS DO NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE FOR A
MODERATE COASTAL FLOOD EVENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ020-
     021.
RI...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR RIZ002-
     004>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ231>235-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...RLG/FRANK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 202318
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
717 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH
EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH MILD TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING GIVES
WAY TO A DRYING TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER
FOLLOWS THURSDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH JUST A SPOT SHOWER FROM
TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...

715 PM UPDATE...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL HAVE BLOSSOMED OVER THE
LAST HOUR OR SO ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.  SHOULD SEE THESE
SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WORK INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST MA SHORTLY.  WHILE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED...NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING IN TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY OCCUR.

THESE HEAVIER SHOWERS WERE BLOSSOMING ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET/DRY SLOT ALLOWING FOR INCREASED INSTABILITY.  GIVEN SHOWALTER
INDICES DROPPING BELOW ZERO AND SOME ELEVATED CAPE...A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.  WE PROBABLY WILL SEE A BIT
OF A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY SOMETIME LATER THIS EVENING UNTIL THE NEXT
BATCH OF ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/MID
ATLANTIC TRACKS NORTHEAST. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...THIS MAY POSE A HIGHER RISK OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL TOWARD DAYBREAK.  THIS IS DISCUSSED FURTHER IN
THE NEXT SECTION.

FINALLY...AREAS OF FOG MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE.  BEST CHANCE FOR
THIS WILL BE LATER THIS EVENING WHEN WILL LIKELY SEE A LULL IN THE
ACTIVITY AND WINDS DIMINISH A BIT.  CONFIDENCE AND AREAL COVERAGE
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY...BUT LATER SHIFTS
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
OVERNIGHT...THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA LOOK TO WARM SECTOR DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.  THIS WOULD INCLUDE RHODE ISLAND...SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CONNECTICUT.  THIS
WILL NOT ONLY BRING TEMPERATURES UP THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT WILL
ALSO ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE.

K INDICES INCREASE AND SHOWALTER INDICES DECREASE AND ALONG WITH THE
TOTAL TOTALS IN THE 50S THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALREADY IN PLACE.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDER EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.

EXPECT RAPID CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 MOST LOCATIONS.  WESTERLY WINDS WILL
ALLOW EVEN THE COASTAL LOCATIONS TO GET IN ON THE WARM
TEMPERATURES...UNLIKE SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCATTERED SHOWERS WED WITH A LOW RISK OF THUNDER/SMALL HAIL
* SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES WED
* UNSEASONABLY COOL THU-SUN WITH A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO AT TIMES

DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT...

A SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TUE NIGHT.  MODELS DO
NOT SHOW MUCH QPF AS INSTABILITY IS RATHER LIMITED.  MAY SEE A FEW
SPOT SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MA PIKE...BUT MUCH OF THE
NIGHT SHOULD FEATURE DRY WEATHER IN A GIVEN LOCATION.
LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  HIGH TEMPS SHOULD STILL REACH
INTO INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  WE WILL
SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT GIVEN DECENT FORCING AND SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY.  MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME IS WED AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.  ITS QUITE COLD ALOFT AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
VERY IMPRESSIVE AROUND 8C/KM!  IF WE CAN MUSTER A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
OF CAPE...MAY EVEN SEE AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.  CONFIDENCE
ON THUNDER IS LOW AT THIS POINT...BUT GIVEN COLD POOL ALOFT THERE IS
AT LEAST THIS RISK FOR SOME GRAUPEL/SMALL HAIL AND PERHAPS EVEN
GUSTY WINDS IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN
BY WED EVENING.


THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

ANOMALOUS CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW SETS UP ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND INTO QUEBEC.  THE RESULT WILL BE BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPS IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  OVERALL...HIGH TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S MUCH OF THE TIME BUT
SOME MODERATION IS POSSIBLE BY MONDAY.  AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES...THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME SHOULD FEATURE DRY WEATHER.
HOWEVER...GIVEN COLD POOL ALOFT A FEW SPOT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN SECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.  LOW RISK FOR EVEN A FEW WET SNOW FLAKES TO MIX IN FOR
A TIME ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT WOULD BE OF NO IMPACT.

THERE IS ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT.  WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SAT NIGHT/SUN.  MOST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE KEEPS THAT SYSTEM WELL TO OUR SOUTH.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS A
BIT CLOSER THEN THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE...BUT EVEN THAT WOULD KEEP
US DRY.  AGAIN...ODDS STRONGLY FAVOR KEEPING THIS SYSTEM SOUTH OR
OUR REGION GIVEN ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW SITTING JUST TO OUR NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS
EVENING.  LULL IN ACTIVITY LIKELY LATER THIS EVENING...WHERE SOME
LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE.  ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS WITH A
HIGHER RISK OF THUNDER MOVES IN TOWARD DAYBREAK. E/SE-WINDS
DIMINISHING. LLWS LIKELY TO START.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDDAY. COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WITH WINDS SHIFTING W/SW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONCERNED ABOUT A PERIOD OF ONE HALF
MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY OVERNIGHT BUT TIMING UNCERTAIN.  IT MIGHT
AFFECT THE MORNING PUSH.  ALSO LOW RISK OF A THUNDERSTORM BETWEEN 8
AND 12Z.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  CONCERNED ABOUT A PERIOD OF ONE
HALF MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY OVERNIGHT BUT TIMING UNCERTAIN.  LOW
RISK OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

TUE NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DESPITE THE
RISK FOR A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO.

WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY WED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  LOW RISK FOR
EVEN A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL WITH
THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.

THU/FRI/SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR DESPITE THE RISK FOR A
BRIEF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER OR TWO.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.  GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ALL THE WATERS
OUTSIDE BOSTON HARBOR AND NARRAGANSETT BAY.  THIS IS FOR WIND GUSTS
UP TO 40 KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.  FOLLOWING THE EXPIRATION OF THE WARNING...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR SEAS GREATER THAN 5 FEET...IF
NOT A FEW LINGERING GUSTS TO 25 KTS.

RAIN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH STEADY RAIN COMING TO AN END LATE
THIS EVENING AND TURNING MORE SHOWERY THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY.  A FEW
ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...WITH A
BETTER CHANCE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.  VISIBILITIES MAY BE LIMITED AT
TIMES.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MODEST WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.  A FEW SHOWERS WED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH A LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WITH SMALL
HAIL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MODEST WESTERLY FLOW AS
A RESULT OF CLOSED LOW PRESSURE ACROSS QUEBEC.  ENOUGH COLD
ADVECTION OVER THE WATERS WILL BE PRESENT TO GENERATE PERIODS OF 25
KNOT WIND GUSTS.  MARGINAL SCA SEAS EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS
AT TIMES...BUT WITH GOOD VISIBILITY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO TRACK STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS
EVENING...BEFORE HIGH TIDE OCCURS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST /AROUND
03Z/ AND EAST COAST /ABOUT 06Z/. THIS RESULTS IN WINDS BEGINNING
TO SLACKEN AS HIGH TIDE APPROACHES. ALSO SYSTEM IS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE SO DURATION OF ONSHORE WINDS IS LIMITED.

ESTOFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE ROBUST AND REALISTIC THAN ETSS WITH
SURGE VALUES 1.0-1.5 FT AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. SEAS ALSO BUILDING
TO 10-15 FT JUST OFFSHORE. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE
AREAS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND SPLASH OVER. THUS WILL CONTINUE
WITH A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THESE LOCATIONS DURING THIS
EVENING AND EARLY TUE MORNING HIGH TIDES.

WINDS DO NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE FOR A
MODERATE COASTAL FLOOD EVENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ020-
     021.
RI...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR RIZ002-
     004>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ231>235-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...RLG/FRANK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 202318
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
717 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH
EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH MILD TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING GIVES
WAY TO A DRYING TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER
FOLLOWS THURSDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH JUST A SPOT SHOWER FROM
TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...

715 PM UPDATE...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL HAVE BLOSSOMED OVER THE
LAST HOUR OR SO ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.  SHOULD SEE THESE
SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WORK INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST MA SHORTLY.  WHILE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED...NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING IN TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY OCCUR.

THESE HEAVIER SHOWERS WERE BLOSSOMING ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET/DRY SLOT ALLOWING FOR INCREASED INSTABILITY.  GIVEN SHOWALTER
INDICES DROPPING BELOW ZERO AND SOME ELEVATED CAPE...A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.  WE PROBABLY WILL SEE A BIT
OF A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY SOMETIME LATER THIS EVENING UNTIL THE NEXT
BATCH OF ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/MID
ATLANTIC TRACKS NORTHEAST. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...THIS MAY POSE A HIGHER RISK OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL TOWARD DAYBREAK.  THIS IS DISCUSSED FURTHER IN
THE NEXT SECTION.

FINALLY...AREAS OF FOG MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE.  BEST CHANCE FOR
THIS WILL BE LATER THIS EVENING WHEN WILL LIKELY SEE A LULL IN THE
ACTIVITY AND WINDS DIMINISH A BIT.  CONFIDENCE AND AREAL COVERAGE
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY...BUT LATER SHIFTS
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
OVERNIGHT...THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA LOOK TO WARM SECTOR DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.  THIS WOULD INCLUDE RHODE ISLAND...SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CONNECTICUT.  THIS
WILL NOT ONLY BRING TEMPERATURES UP THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT WILL
ALSO ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE.

K INDICES INCREASE AND SHOWALTER INDICES DECREASE AND ALONG WITH THE
TOTAL TOTALS IN THE 50S THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALREADY IN PLACE.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDER EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.

EXPECT RAPID CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 MOST LOCATIONS.  WESTERLY WINDS WILL
ALLOW EVEN THE COASTAL LOCATIONS TO GET IN ON THE WARM
TEMPERATURES...UNLIKE SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCATTERED SHOWERS WED WITH A LOW RISK OF THUNDER/SMALL HAIL
* SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES WED
* UNSEASONABLY COOL THU-SUN WITH A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO AT TIMES

DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT...

A SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TUE NIGHT.  MODELS DO
NOT SHOW MUCH QPF AS INSTABILITY IS RATHER LIMITED.  MAY SEE A FEW
SPOT SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MA PIKE...BUT MUCH OF THE
NIGHT SHOULD FEATURE DRY WEATHER IN A GIVEN LOCATION.
LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  HIGH TEMPS SHOULD STILL REACH
INTO INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  WE WILL
SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT GIVEN DECENT FORCING AND SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY.  MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME IS WED AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.  ITS QUITE COLD ALOFT AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
VERY IMPRESSIVE AROUND 8C/KM!  IF WE CAN MUSTER A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
OF CAPE...MAY EVEN SEE AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.  CONFIDENCE
ON THUNDER IS LOW AT THIS POINT...BUT GIVEN COLD POOL ALOFT THERE IS
AT LEAST THIS RISK FOR SOME GRAUPEL/SMALL HAIL AND PERHAPS EVEN
GUSTY WINDS IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN
BY WED EVENING.


THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

ANOMALOUS CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW SETS UP ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND INTO QUEBEC.  THE RESULT WILL BE BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPS IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  OVERALL...HIGH TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S MUCH OF THE TIME BUT
SOME MODERATION IS POSSIBLE BY MONDAY.  AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES...THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME SHOULD FEATURE DRY WEATHER.
HOWEVER...GIVEN COLD POOL ALOFT A FEW SPOT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN SECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.  LOW RISK FOR EVEN A FEW WET SNOW FLAKES TO MIX IN FOR
A TIME ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT WOULD BE OF NO IMPACT.

THERE IS ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT.  WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SAT NIGHT/SUN.  MOST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE KEEPS THAT SYSTEM WELL TO OUR SOUTH.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS A
BIT CLOSER THEN THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE...BUT EVEN THAT WOULD KEEP
US DRY.  AGAIN...ODDS STRONGLY FAVOR KEEPING THIS SYSTEM SOUTH OR
OUR REGION GIVEN ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW SITTING JUST TO OUR NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS
EVENING.  LULL IN ACTIVITY LIKELY LATER THIS EVENING...WHERE SOME
LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE.  ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS WITH A
HIGHER RISK OF THUNDER MOVES IN TOWARD DAYBREAK. E/SE-WINDS
DIMINISHING. LLWS LIKELY TO START.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDDAY. COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WITH WINDS SHIFTING W/SW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONCERNED ABOUT A PERIOD OF ONE HALF
MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY OVERNIGHT BUT TIMING UNCERTAIN.  IT MIGHT
AFFECT THE MORNING PUSH.  ALSO LOW RISK OF A THUNDERSTORM BETWEEN 8
AND 12Z.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  CONCERNED ABOUT A PERIOD OF ONE
HALF MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY OVERNIGHT BUT TIMING UNCERTAIN.  LOW
RISK OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

TUE NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DESPITE THE
RISK FOR A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO.

WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY WED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  LOW RISK FOR
EVEN A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL WITH
THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.

THU/FRI/SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR DESPITE THE RISK FOR A
BRIEF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER OR TWO.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.  GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ALL THE WATERS
OUTSIDE BOSTON HARBOR AND NARRAGANSETT BAY.  THIS IS FOR WIND GUSTS
UP TO 40 KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.  FOLLOWING THE EXPIRATION OF THE WARNING...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR SEAS GREATER THAN 5 FEET...IF
NOT A FEW LINGERING GUSTS TO 25 KTS.

RAIN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH STEADY RAIN COMING TO AN END LATE
THIS EVENING AND TURNING MORE SHOWERY THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY.  A FEW
ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...WITH A
BETTER CHANCE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.  VISIBILITIES MAY BE LIMITED AT
TIMES.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MODEST WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.  A FEW SHOWERS WED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH A LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WITH SMALL
HAIL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MODEST WESTERLY FLOW AS
A RESULT OF CLOSED LOW PRESSURE ACROSS QUEBEC.  ENOUGH COLD
ADVECTION OVER THE WATERS WILL BE PRESENT TO GENERATE PERIODS OF 25
KNOT WIND GUSTS.  MARGINAL SCA SEAS EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS
AT TIMES...BUT WITH GOOD VISIBILITY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO TRACK STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS
EVENING...BEFORE HIGH TIDE OCCURS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST /AROUND
03Z/ AND EAST COAST /ABOUT 06Z/. THIS RESULTS IN WINDS BEGINNING
TO SLACKEN AS HIGH TIDE APPROACHES. ALSO SYSTEM IS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE SO DURATION OF ONSHORE WINDS IS LIMITED.

ESTOFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE ROBUST AND REALISTIC THAN ETSS WITH
SURGE VALUES 1.0-1.5 FT AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. SEAS ALSO BUILDING
TO 10-15 FT JUST OFFSHORE. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE
AREAS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND SPLASH OVER. THUS WILL CONTINUE
WITH A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THESE LOCATIONS DURING THIS
EVENING AND EARLY TUE MORNING HIGH TIDES.

WINDS DO NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE FOR A
MODERATE COASTAL FLOOD EVENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ020-
     021.
RI...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR RIZ002-
     004>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ231>235-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...RLG/FRANK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 202318
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
717 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH
EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH MILD TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING GIVES
WAY TO A DRYING TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER
FOLLOWS THURSDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH JUST A SPOT SHOWER FROM
TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...

715 PM UPDATE...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL HAVE BLOSSOMED OVER THE
LAST HOUR OR SO ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.  SHOULD SEE THESE
SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WORK INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST MA SHORTLY.  WHILE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED...NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING IN TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY OCCUR.

THESE HEAVIER SHOWERS WERE BLOSSOMING ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET/DRY SLOT ALLOWING FOR INCREASED INSTABILITY.  GIVEN SHOWALTER
INDICES DROPPING BELOW ZERO AND SOME ELEVATED CAPE...A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.  WE PROBABLY WILL SEE A BIT
OF A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY SOMETIME LATER THIS EVENING UNTIL THE NEXT
BATCH OF ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/MID
ATLANTIC TRACKS NORTHEAST. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...THIS MAY POSE A HIGHER RISK OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL TOWARD DAYBREAK.  THIS IS DISCUSSED FURTHER IN
THE NEXT SECTION.

FINALLY...AREAS OF FOG MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE.  BEST CHANCE FOR
THIS WILL BE LATER THIS EVENING WHEN WILL LIKELY SEE A LULL IN THE
ACTIVITY AND WINDS DIMINISH A BIT.  CONFIDENCE AND AREAL COVERAGE
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY...BUT LATER SHIFTS
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
OVERNIGHT...THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA LOOK TO WARM SECTOR DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.  THIS WOULD INCLUDE RHODE ISLAND...SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CONNECTICUT.  THIS
WILL NOT ONLY BRING TEMPERATURES UP THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT WILL
ALSO ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE.

K INDICES INCREASE AND SHOWALTER INDICES DECREASE AND ALONG WITH THE
TOTAL TOTALS IN THE 50S THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALREADY IN PLACE.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDER EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.

EXPECT RAPID CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 MOST LOCATIONS.  WESTERLY WINDS WILL
ALLOW EVEN THE COASTAL LOCATIONS TO GET IN ON THE WARM
TEMPERATURES...UNLIKE SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCATTERED SHOWERS WED WITH A LOW RISK OF THUNDER/SMALL HAIL
* SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES WED
* UNSEASONABLY COOL THU-SUN WITH A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO AT TIMES

DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT...

A SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TUE NIGHT.  MODELS DO
NOT SHOW MUCH QPF AS INSTABILITY IS RATHER LIMITED.  MAY SEE A FEW
SPOT SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MA PIKE...BUT MUCH OF THE
NIGHT SHOULD FEATURE DRY WEATHER IN A GIVEN LOCATION.
LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  HIGH TEMPS SHOULD STILL REACH
INTO INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  WE WILL
SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT GIVEN DECENT FORCING AND SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY.  MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME IS WED AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.  ITS QUITE COLD ALOFT AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
VERY IMPRESSIVE AROUND 8C/KM!  IF WE CAN MUSTER A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
OF CAPE...MAY EVEN SEE AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.  CONFIDENCE
ON THUNDER IS LOW AT THIS POINT...BUT GIVEN COLD POOL ALOFT THERE IS
AT LEAST THIS RISK FOR SOME GRAUPEL/SMALL HAIL AND PERHAPS EVEN
GUSTY WINDS IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN
BY WED EVENING.


THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

ANOMALOUS CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW SETS UP ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND INTO QUEBEC.  THE RESULT WILL BE BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPS IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  OVERALL...HIGH TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S MUCH OF THE TIME BUT
SOME MODERATION IS POSSIBLE BY MONDAY.  AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES...THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME SHOULD FEATURE DRY WEATHER.
HOWEVER...GIVEN COLD POOL ALOFT A FEW SPOT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN SECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.  LOW RISK FOR EVEN A FEW WET SNOW FLAKES TO MIX IN FOR
A TIME ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT WOULD BE OF NO IMPACT.

THERE IS ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT.  WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SAT NIGHT/SUN.  MOST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE KEEPS THAT SYSTEM WELL TO OUR SOUTH.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS A
BIT CLOSER THEN THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE...BUT EVEN THAT WOULD KEEP
US DRY.  AGAIN...ODDS STRONGLY FAVOR KEEPING THIS SYSTEM SOUTH OR
OUR REGION GIVEN ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW SITTING JUST TO OUR NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS
EVENING.  LULL IN ACTIVITY LIKELY LATER THIS EVENING...WHERE SOME
LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE.  ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS WITH A
HIGHER RISK OF THUNDER MOVES IN TOWARD DAYBREAK. E/SE-WINDS
DIMINISHING. LLWS LIKELY TO START.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDDAY. COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WITH WINDS SHIFTING W/SW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONCERNED ABOUT A PERIOD OF ONE HALF
MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY OVERNIGHT BUT TIMING UNCERTAIN.  IT MIGHT
AFFECT THE MORNING PUSH.  ALSO LOW RISK OF A THUNDERSTORM BETWEEN 8
AND 12Z.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  CONCERNED ABOUT A PERIOD OF ONE
HALF MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY OVERNIGHT BUT TIMING UNCERTAIN.  LOW
RISK OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

TUE NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DESPITE THE
RISK FOR A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO.

WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY WED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  LOW RISK FOR
EVEN A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL WITH
THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.

THU/FRI/SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR DESPITE THE RISK FOR A
BRIEF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER OR TWO.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.  GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ALL THE WATERS
OUTSIDE BOSTON HARBOR AND NARRAGANSETT BAY.  THIS IS FOR WIND GUSTS
UP TO 40 KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.  FOLLOWING THE EXPIRATION OF THE WARNING...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR SEAS GREATER THAN 5 FEET...IF
NOT A FEW LINGERING GUSTS TO 25 KTS.

RAIN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH STEADY RAIN COMING TO AN END LATE
THIS EVENING AND TURNING MORE SHOWERY THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY.  A FEW
ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...WITH A
BETTER CHANCE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.  VISIBILITIES MAY BE LIMITED AT
TIMES.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MODEST WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.  A FEW SHOWERS WED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH A LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WITH SMALL
HAIL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MODEST WESTERLY FLOW AS
A RESULT OF CLOSED LOW PRESSURE ACROSS QUEBEC.  ENOUGH COLD
ADVECTION OVER THE WATERS WILL BE PRESENT TO GENERATE PERIODS OF 25
KNOT WIND GUSTS.  MARGINAL SCA SEAS EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS
AT TIMES...BUT WITH GOOD VISIBILITY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO TRACK STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS
EVENING...BEFORE HIGH TIDE OCCURS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST /AROUND
03Z/ AND EAST COAST /ABOUT 06Z/. THIS RESULTS IN WINDS BEGINNING
TO SLACKEN AS HIGH TIDE APPROACHES. ALSO SYSTEM IS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE SO DURATION OF ONSHORE WINDS IS LIMITED.

ESTOFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE ROBUST AND REALISTIC THAN ETSS WITH
SURGE VALUES 1.0-1.5 FT AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. SEAS ALSO BUILDING
TO 10-15 FT JUST OFFSHORE. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE
AREAS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND SPLASH OVER. THUS WILL CONTINUE
WITH A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THESE LOCATIONS DURING THIS
EVENING AND EARLY TUE MORNING HIGH TIDES.

WINDS DO NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE FOR A
MODERATE COASTAL FLOOD EVENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ020-
     021.
RI...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR RIZ002-
     004>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ231>235-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...RLG/FRANK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 201944
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
344 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH
EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH MILD TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING GIVES
WAY TO A DRYING TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER
FOLLOWS THURSDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH JUST A SPOT SHOWER FROM
TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
RAIN CONTINUES WITH EASTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT STARTS TO SLIDE NORTHWARD THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  STEADIER RAIN WILL COME TO AN END OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE A MORE SHOWERY BATCH OF RAIN BEGINS LATE
THIS EVENING.

THERE IS ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST /TOTAL TOTALS > 50/ FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO BE
HEARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.  HOWEVER...THE BETTER CHANCE
FOR THUNDER WILL BE MORE TOWARDS THE MORNING HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT
IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

OVERNIGHT...THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA LOOK TO WARM SECTOR DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.  THIS WOULD INCLUDE RHODE ISLAND...SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CONNECTICUT.  THIS
WILL NOT ONLY BRING TEMPERATURES UP THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT WILL
ALSO ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE.

K INDICES INCREASE AND SHOWALTER INDICES DECREASE AND ALONG WITH THE
TOTAL TOTALS IN THE 50S THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALREADY IN PLACE.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDER EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.

EXPECT RAPID CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 MOST LOCATIONS.  WESTERLY WINDS WILL
ALLOW EVEN THE COASTAL LOCATIONS TO GET IN ON THE WARM
TEMPERATURES...UNLIKE SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCATTERED SHOWERS WED WITH A LOW RISK OF THUNDER/SMALL HAIL
* SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES WED
* UNSEASONABLY COOL THU-SUN WITH A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO AT TIMES

DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT...

A SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TUE NIGHT.  MODELS DO
NOT SHOW MUCH QPF AS INSTABILITY IS RATHER LIMITED.  MAY SEE A FEW
SPOT SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MA PIKE...BUT MUCH OF THE
NIGHT SHOULD FEATURE DRY WEATHER IN A GIVEN LOCATION.
LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  HIGH TEMPS SHOULD STILL REACH
INTO INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  WE WILL
SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT GIVEN DECENT FORCING AND SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY.  MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME IS WED AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.  ITS QUITE COLD ALOFT AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
VERY IMPRESSIVE AROUND 8C/KM!  IF WE CAN MUSTER A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
OF CAPE...MAY EVEN SEE AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.  CONFIDENCE
ON THUNDER IS LOW AT THIS POINT...BUT GIVEN COLD POOL ALOFT THERE IS
AT LEAST THIS RISK FOR SOME GRAUPEL/SMALL HAIL AND PERHAPS EVEN
GUSTY WINDS IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN
BY WED EVENING.


THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

ANOMALOUS CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW SETS UP ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND INTO QUEBEC.  THE RESULT WILL BE BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPS IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  OVERALL...HIGH TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S MUCH OF THE TIME BUT
SOME MODERATION IS POSSIBLE BY MONDAY.  AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES...THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME SHOULD FEATURE DRY WEATHER.
HOWEVER...GIVEN COLD POOL ALOFT A FEW SPOT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN SECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.  LOW RISK FOR EVEN A FEW WET SNOW FLAKES TO MIX IN FOR
A TIME ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT WOULD BE OF NO IMPACT.

THERE IS ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT.  WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SAT NIGHT/SUN.  MOST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE KEEPS THAT SYSTEM WELL TO OUR SOUTH.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS A
BIT CLOSER THEN THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE...BUT EVEN THAT WOULD KEEP
US DRY.  AGAIN...ODDS STRONGLY FAVOR KEEPING THIS SYSTEM SOUTH OR
OUR REGION GIVEN ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW SITTING JUST TO OUR NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THROUGH 00Z...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN.
CHANCE -TSRA LATE. BLUSTERY E-FLOW WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS ALONG
THE COASTS. LLWS WITH 40-50 KT AT 2 KFT AGL BEGINNING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. -SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA. E/SE-
WINDS DIMINISHING. LLWS LIKELY TO START.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDDAY. COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WITH WINDS SHIFTING W/SW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LLWS LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

TUE NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DESPITE THE
RISK FOR A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO.

WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY WED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  LOW RISK FOR
EVEN A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL WITH
THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.

THU/FRI/SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR DESPITE THE RISK FOR A
BRIEF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER OR TWO.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.  GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ALL THE WATERS
OUTSIDE BOSTON HARBOR AND NARRAGANSETT BAY.  THIS IS FOR WIND GUSTS
UP TO 40 KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.  FOLLOWING THE EXPIRATION OF THE WARNING...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR SEAS GREATER THAN 5 FEET...IF
NOT A FEW LINGERING GUSTS TO 25 KTS.

RAIN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH STEADY RAIN COMING TO AN END LATE
THIS EVENING AND TURNING MORE SHOWERY THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY.  A FEW
ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...WITH A
BETTER CHANCE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.  VISIBILITIES MAY BE LIMITED AT
TIMES.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MODEST WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.  A FEW SHOWERS WED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH A LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WITH SMALL
HAIL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MODEST WESTERLY FLOW AS
A RESULT OF CLOSED LOW PRESSURE ACROSS QUEBEC.  ENOUGH COLD
ADVECTION OVER THE WATERS WILL BE PRESENT TO GENERATE PERIODS OF 25
KNOT WIND GUSTS.  MARGINAL SCA SEAS EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS
AT TIMES...BUT WITH GOOD VISIBILITY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO TRACK STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS
EVENING...BEFORE HIGH TIDE OCCURS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST /AROUND
03Z/ AND EAST COAST /ABOUT 06Z/. THIS RESULTS IN WINDS BEGINNING
TO SLACKEN AS HIGH TIDE APPROACHES. ALSO SYSTEM IS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE SO DURATION OF ONSHORE WINDS IS LIMITED.

ESTOFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE ROBUST AND REALISTIC THAN ETSS WITH
SURGE VALUES 1.0-1.5 FT AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. SEAS ALSO BUILDING
TO 10-15 FT JUST OFFSHORE. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE
AREAS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND SPLASH OVER. THUS WILL CONTINUE
WITH A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THESE LOCATIONS DURING THIS
EVENING AND EARLY TUE MORNING HIGH TIDES.

WINDS DO NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE FOR A
MODERATE COASTAL FLOOD EVENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR MAZ020-021.
RI...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR RIZ002-004>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ231>235-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 201944
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
344 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH
EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH MILD TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING GIVES
WAY TO A DRYING TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER
FOLLOWS THURSDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH JUST A SPOT SHOWER FROM
TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
RAIN CONTINUES WITH EASTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT STARTS TO SLIDE NORTHWARD THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  STEADIER RAIN WILL COME TO AN END OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE A MORE SHOWERY BATCH OF RAIN BEGINS LATE
THIS EVENING.

THERE IS ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST /TOTAL TOTALS > 50/ FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO BE
HEARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.  HOWEVER...THE BETTER CHANCE
FOR THUNDER WILL BE MORE TOWARDS THE MORNING HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT
IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

OVERNIGHT...THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA LOOK TO WARM SECTOR DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.  THIS WOULD INCLUDE RHODE ISLAND...SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CONNECTICUT.  THIS
WILL NOT ONLY BRING TEMPERATURES UP THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT WILL
ALSO ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE.

K INDICES INCREASE AND SHOWALTER INDICES DECREASE AND ALONG WITH THE
TOTAL TOTALS IN THE 50S THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALREADY IN PLACE.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDER EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.

EXPECT RAPID CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 MOST LOCATIONS.  WESTERLY WINDS WILL
ALLOW EVEN THE COASTAL LOCATIONS TO GET IN ON THE WARM
TEMPERATURES...UNLIKE SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCATTERED SHOWERS WED WITH A LOW RISK OF THUNDER/SMALL HAIL
* SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES WED
* UNSEASONABLY COOL THU-SUN WITH A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO AT TIMES

DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT...

A SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TUE NIGHT.  MODELS DO
NOT SHOW MUCH QPF AS INSTABILITY IS RATHER LIMITED.  MAY SEE A FEW
SPOT SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MA PIKE...BUT MUCH OF THE
NIGHT SHOULD FEATURE DRY WEATHER IN A GIVEN LOCATION.
LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  HIGH TEMPS SHOULD STILL REACH
INTO INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  WE WILL
SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT GIVEN DECENT FORCING AND SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY.  MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME IS WED AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.  ITS QUITE COLD ALOFT AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
VERY IMPRESSIVE AROUND 8C/KM!  IF WE CAN MUSTER A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
OF CAPE...MAY EVEN SEE AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.  CONFIDENCE
ON THUNDER IS LOW AT THIS POINT...BUT GIVEN COLD POOL ALOFT THERE IS
AT LEAST THIS RISK FOR SOME GRAUPEL/SMALL HAIL AND PERHAPS EVEN
GUSTY WINDS IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN
BY WED EVENING.


THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

ANOMALOUS CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW SETS UP ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND INTO QUEBEC.  THE RESULT WILL BE BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPS IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  OVERALL...HIGH TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S MUCH OF THE TIME BUT
SOME MODERATION IS POSSIBLE BY MONDAY.  AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES...THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME SHOULD FEATURE DRY WEATHER.
HOWEVER...GIVEN COLD POOL ALOFT A FEW SPOT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN SECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.  LOW RISK FOR EVEN A FEW WET SNOW FLAKES TO MIX IN FOR
A TIME ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT WOULD BE OF NO IMPACT.

THERE IS ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT.  WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SAT NIGHT/SUN.  MOST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE KEEPS THAT SYSTEM WELL TO OUR SOUTH.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS A
BIT CLOSER THEN THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE...BUT EVEN THAT WOULD KEEP
US DRY.  AGAIN...ODDS STRONGLY FAVOR KEEPING THIS SYSTEM SOUTH OR
OUR REGION GIVEN ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW SITTING JUST TO OUR NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THROUGH 00Z...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN.
CHANCE -TSRA LATE. BLUSTERY E-FLOW WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS ALONG
THE COASTS. LLWS WITH 40-50 KT AT 2 KFT AGL BEGINNING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. -SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA. E/SE-
WINDS DIMINISHING. LLWS LIKELY TO START.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDDAY. COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WITH WINDS SHIFTING W/SW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LLWS LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

TUE NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DESPITE THE
RISK FOR A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO.

WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY WED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  LOW RISK FOR
EVEN A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL WITH
THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.

THU/FRI/SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR DESPITE THE RISK FOR A
BRIEF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER OR TWO.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.  GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ALL THE WATERS
OUTSIDE BOSTON HARBOR AND NARRAGANSETT BAY.  THIS IS FOR WIND GUSTS
UP TO 40 KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.  FOLLOWING THE EXPIRATION OF THE WARNING...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR SEAS GREATER THAN 5 FEET...IF
NOT A FEW LINGERING GUSTS TO 25 KTS.

RAIN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH STEADY RAIN COMING TO AN END LATE
THIS EVENING AND TURNING MORE SHOWERY THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY.  A FEW
ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...WITH A
BETTER CHANCE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.  VISIBILITIES MAY BE LIMITED AT
TIMES.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MODEST WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS.  A FEW SHOWERS WED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH A LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WITH SMALL
HAIL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MODEST WESTERLY FLOW AS
A RESULT OF CLOSED LOW PRESSURE ACROSS QUEBEC.  ENOUGH COLD
ADVECTION OVER THE WATERS WILL BE PRESENT TO GENERATE PERIODS OF 25
KNOT WIND GUSTS.  MARGINAL SCA SEAS EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS
AT TIMES...BUT WITH GOOD VISIBILITY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO TRACK STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS
EVENING...BEFORE HIGH TIDE OCCURS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST /AROUND
03Z/ AND EAST COAST /ABOUT 06Z/. THIS RESULTS IN WINDS BEGINNING
TO SLACKEN AS HIGH TIDE APPROACHES. ALSO SYSTEM IS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE SO DURATION OF ONSHORE WINDS IS LIMITED.

ESTOFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE ROBUST AND REALISTIC THAN ETSS WITH
SURGE VALUES 1.0-1.5 FT AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. SEAS ALSO BUILDING
TO 10-15 FT JUST OFFSHORE. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE
AREAS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND SPLASH OVER. THUS WILL CONTINUE
WITH A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THESE LOCATIONS DURING THIS
EVENING AND EARLY TUE MORNING HIGH TIDES.

WINDS DO NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE FOR A
MODERATE COASTAL FLOOD EVENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR MAZ020-021.
RI...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR RIZ002-004>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ231>235-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 201810
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
210 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
WITH EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH MILD TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING
GIVES WAY TO A DRYING TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WED
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER
WEATHER THU INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
215 PM UPDATE...RAIN HAS OVERSPREAD ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A
FEW AREAS WHERE IT MAY JUST BE LIGHT DRIZZLE BUT OVERALL A CHILLY
WET DAY. MADE SOME UPDATES...MAINLY TO THE WINDS AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS LARGELY ON TRACK.

===================================================================

LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WARM FRONT LIFTING NE ACROSS THE REGION COLLOCATED
WITH SYNOPTIC-FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE
BROUGHT N BY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SE-FLOW. ANOMALOUS PWATS NEARLY
1.5-INCHES /+2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE-NORMAL FOR THE MONTH OF
APRIL/. WILL SEE LIGHT RAIN SPREAD ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
MORNING BECOMING HEAVIER BY MIDDAY CONTINUING INTO EARLY EVENING
AS THE CONVERGENT NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND DEEP-LAYER
MOISTURE COMBINE ALONG THE WARM-FRONT ALOFT. EXPECTATION OF A
BROAD SWATH OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLE
CONVECTION DISCUSSED BELOW.

THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LATE DAY INTO EARLY EVENING CONVECTION
AS AN ELEVATED CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT LIFTS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG PUNCH OF WARM-MOIST AIR ALOFT.
CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS NOTEWORTHY WITH NEGATIVE SHOWALTERS AND DECENT
TOTAL-TOTALS AND K-INDICES. FORECAST SOLUTIONS VARY AS TO HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AND THAT ANY INSTABILITY IS ELEVATED AND NOT
SURFACE-BASED. ALSO AWARE OF DECENT TURNING WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. NEVERTHELESS AN EVALUATION OF CIPS ANALOGS...AND
NOTING THE E/SE-ONSHORE FLOW WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN A STABLE LOW-
LEVEL PROFILE AS BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE WITH
RESPECT TO A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THUNDER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
BUT INGREDIENTS HAVE TO BE JUST RIGHT TO GET SEVERE OUTCOMES. CIPS
ANALOGS AGREE ON BULK OF SEVERE WEATHER THREATS TO OUR SW. CAN NOT
RULE OUT SMALL HAIL...AND WITH ANY HEAVY RAIN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIP-DRAG TO BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE SURFACE. BUT AGAIN THINK
THERE IS A LOW-RISK AND THUS HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE. WILL STILL MONITOR
FOR THE POTENTIAL. SEE MORE ON THINKING WITH RESPECT TO FLOODING
FURTHER DOWN IN THE DISCUSSION.

A CHILLY DAMP DAY. EXPECTING LOW-CLOUDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES FOR
SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY WITH HEAVY RAIN BUT COULD ALSO SEE MARINE
IMPACTS WITH PROLONGED ONSHORE E/SE-FLOW. SUCH FLOW YIELDING COOLER
THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS AROUND THE UPPER-40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
OVERNIGHT INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY...

A LULL IS EXPECTED INITIALLY WITH A WARM-SECTOR DRY-SLOT FOLLOWING
THE ELEVATED PUNCH OF WARM-MOIST AIR COLLOCATED WITH THE WARM FRONT
ALOFT. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...MOISTURE RETURNS WITHIN THE
CONTINUED CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT BENEATH DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN RENEWED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THUNDER
CHANCES. ECHO THE CONVECTION DISCUSSION OF PRIOR OF LOW RISK / LOW
CONFIDENCE SEVERE WEATHER. HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS REMAIN
POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY CONCLUDES DURING THE MORNING HOURS PRIOR TO THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION.

BY THIS POINT STORM-TOTAL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 1.0- TO
1.5-INCH RANGE. CONSIDERING MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY TAKING PLACE WITHIN
A 12- TO 18-HOUR PERIOD...AND THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW WITHIN H85-3...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE CONCERNING WIDESPREAD FLOODING. NUISANCE POOR-
DRAINAGE FLOODING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND CONVECTION ARE ANTICIPATED. COULD SEE SHORT-DURATION
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT OVERALL SREF PROBABILITIES REMAIN
LOW FOR 1-INCH OF PRECIPITATION WITHIN 12-HOURS. 1-HOUR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE IS AROUND 1.75-INCHES. MMEFS SUGGESTS THAT WITH
ANTICIPATED RAINFALL THE CT-RIVER MAY REMAIN SWOLLEN FOR SLIGHTLY
LONGER.

TUESDAY MIDDAY TOWARDS EVENING...

COLD AIR ADVECTION PROCEEDING ALLOWING FOR STEEP LAPSE RATES ON UP
TO H7. EXPECTING TO BREAK OUT ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE DRY-SLOT REGION
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUNSHINE TO WARM TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 70-
DEGREES. SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION COULD
DEVELOP. BUT THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE BEING SO DRY AS INDICATED BY
THE NEGATIVE K-INDEX VALUES LEADS TO A QUIET WEATHER PERIOD TO CLOSE
OUT THE EARLY-WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PRECIP - GREATEST RISK FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WED AND WED NGT
* TEMPS - MILD WED THEN COOLER THAN NORMAL THURSDAY THRU SUN

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WED/THU BECOMES
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR OUR AREA THIS PERIOD. BY FRI MID LEVEL
LOW DRIFTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THEN EAST OF THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND
BUT STILL CLOSE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST SOME IMPACT. DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THU THEN GFS AND ITS
ENSEMBLES GEFS TRACK MID LEVEL LOW FARTHER NORTH INTO QUEBEC.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF/UKMET AND ECENS DIG MID LEVEL LOW FARTHER SOUTH
INTO NEW ENGLAND FRI THEN SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA SAT. GIVEN THE
EVOLVING BLOCKY PATTERN AND SUPPORT FROM -NAO/AO AND EPO
TELECONNECTIONS WE WILL FAVOR THE MORE AMPLIFIED AND SUPPRESSED
EC/UKMET AND ECENS SOLUTION THIS PERIOD. THIS FLOW REGIME WILL
SUPPORT TEMPS COOLER THAN NORMAL THURSDAY THRU SUNDAY ALONG WITH
GREATEST RISK FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WED/WED NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
IMPRESSIVE COLD FRONT.

DAILY DETAILS...

WED...SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE BUT GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON QPF FOR A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS WED INTO WED NIGHT AS FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE AND
ATTENDING COLD FRONT SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA. STILL MILD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH MULTI MODEL 2M TEMPS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON HIGHS 60-65!
ENJOY AS PATTERN CHANGE WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER WEATHER THU/FRI
AND THIS WEEKEND.

THURSDAY AND FRI...MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
BEGINS TO DRIFT TOWARD AND OVER NEW ENGLAND BY FRI. LOWER HEIGHTS
ALOFT CORRESPONDS TO COLDER TEMPS AT THE SURFACE. THUS BIG COOL DOWN
THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS ONLY 50-55...POSSIBLY ONLY U40S HIGH TERRAIN
WELL INLAND. 850 MB TEMP ANOMALY INDICATES TEMPS ABOUT -1 STANDARD
DEVIATION BELOW CLIMO. MAINLY DRY BUT CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING SHOWER.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY EXITS NORTH AND
EAST OF THE REGION. THUS TEMPS WARM SOMEWHAT ALOFT AND LOWERS THE
RISK FOR AFTN/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THROUGH 00Z...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN.
CHANCE -TSRA LATE. BLUSTERY E-FLOW WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS ALONG
THE COASTS. LLWS WITH 40-50 KT AT 2 KFT AGL BEGINNING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. -SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA. E/SE-
WINDS DIMINISHING. LLWS LIKELY TO START.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDDAY. COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WITH WINDS SHIFTING W/SW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LLWS LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUE NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR WITH MODEST SSW WINDS. MAINLY
DRY TOO.

WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT INCREASES THE RISK FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. CONDITIONS MAY DIP TO MVFR IN TIMES OF SHOWERS.

THU AND FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED AFTERNOON /
EVENING SHOWER POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING AS WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
HEAVIER SHOWERS SPREAD W TO E ACROSS THE WATERS. LIKELY TO SEE
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE. INCREASING
E-FLOW WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER THE E/SE-WATERS WHERE CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHEST. SMALL- CRAFT ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF AN INTERMITTENT GALE- FORCE GUST. SEAS BUILDING UP AROUND 10 TO
12 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH THE PERIOD W TO E. WINDS
DIMINISH ALLOWING SEAS TO BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AS RAINS WITH CHANCE
THUNDERSTORMS PUSH E/NE. EXPECT SEAS INITIALLY AROUND 10 TO 12
FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. ANY VISIBILITY ISSUES TO LIFT.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING RATHER QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY BY
MIDDAY. COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE WATERS WITH WINDS SHIFTING W/SW.
WAVES CONTINUING TO DIMINISH DOWN TO AROUND 6 TO 8 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUE NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MODEST SSW WINDS. LEFTOVER SE SWELLS
CONTINUE.

WED/WED NIGHT...COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. MODEST SSW WIND SHIFT TO WNW.

THU AND FRI...
MODEST WNW WINDS AS LOW PRES MEANDERS OVER MAINE OR NEW BRUNSWICK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO TRACK STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS
EVENING...BEFORE HIGH TIDE OCCURS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST /AROUND 03Z/
AND EAST COAST /ABOUT 06Z/. THIS RESULTS IN WINDS BEGINNING TO
SLACKEN AS HIGH TIDE APPROACHES. ALSO SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE
SO DURATION OF ONSHORE WINDS IS LIMITED.

ESTOFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE ROBUST AND REALISTIC THAN ETSS WITH
SURGE VALUES 1.0-1.5 FT AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. SEAS ALSO BUILDING
TO 10-15 FT JUST OFFSHORE. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE
AREAS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND SPLASH OVER. THUS WILL CONTINUE
WITH A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THESE LOCATIONS DURING THIS
EVENING AND EARLY TUE MORNING HIGH TIDES.

WINDS DO NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE FOR A
MODERATE COASTAL FLOOD EVENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR MAZ020-021.
RI...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR RIZ002-004>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/RLG/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/RLG
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 201810
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
210 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
WITH EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH MILD TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING
GIVES WAY TO A DRYING TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WED
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER
WEATHER THU INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
215 PM UPDATE...RAIN HAS OVERSPREAD ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A
FEW AREAS WHERE IT MAY JUST BE LIGHT DRIZZLE BUT OVERALL A CHILLY
WET DAY. MADE SOME UPDATES...MAINLY TO THE WINDS AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS LARGELY ON TRACK.

===================================================================

LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WARM FRONT LIFTING NE ACROSS THE REGION COLLOCATED
WITH SYNOPTIC-FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE
BROUGHT N BY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SE-FLOW. ANOMALOUS PWATS NEARLY
1.5-INCHES /+2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE-NORMAL FOR THE MONTH OF
APRIL/. WILL SEE LIGHT RAIN SPREAD ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
MORNING BECOMING HEAVIER BY MIDDAY CONTINUING INTO EARLY EVENING
AS THE CONVERGENT NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND DEEP-LAYER
MOISTURE COMBINE ALONG THE WARM-FRONT ALOFT. EXPECTATION OF A
BROAD SWATH OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLE
CONVECTION DISCUSSED BELOW.

THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LATE DAY INTO EARLY EVENING CONVECTION
AS AN ELEVATED CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT LIFTS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG PUNCH OF WARM-MOIST AIR ALOFT.
CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS NOTEWORTHY WITH NEGATIVE SHOWALTERS AND DECENT
TOTAL-TOTALS AND K-INDICES. FORECAST SOLUTIONS VARY AS TO HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AND THAT ANY INSTABILITY IS ELEVATED AND NOT
SURFACE-BASED. ALSO AWARE OF DECENT TURNING WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. NEVERTHELESS AN EVALUATION OF CIPS ANALOGS...AND
NOTING THE E/SE-ONSHORE FLOW WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN A STABLE LOW-
LEVEL PROFILE AS BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE WITH
RESPECT TO A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THUNDER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
BUT INGREDIENTS HAVE TO BE JUST RIGHT TO GET SEVERE OUTCOMES. CIPS
ANALOGS AGREE ON BULK OF SEVERE WEATHER THREATS TO OUR SW. CAN NOT
RULE OUT SMALL HAIL...AND WITH ANY HEAVY RAIN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIP-DRAG TO BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE SURFACE. BUT AGAIN THINK
THERE IS A LOW-RISK AND THUS HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE. WILL STILL MONITOR
FOR THE POTENTIAL. SEE MORE ON THINKING WITH RESPECT TO FLOODING
FURTHER DOWN IN THE DISCUSSION.

A CHILLY DAMP DAY. EXPECTING LOW-CLOUDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES FOR
SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY WITH HEAVY RAIN BUT COULD ALSO SEE MARINE
IMPACTS WITH PROLONGED ONSHORE E/SE-FLOW. SUCH FLOW YIELDING COOLER
THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS AROUND THE UPPER-40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
OVERNIGHT INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY...

A LULL IS EXPECTED INITIALLY WITH A WARM-SECTOR DRY-SLOT FOLLOWING
THE ELEVATED PUNCH OF WARM-MOIST AIR COLLOCATED WITH THE WARM FRONT
ALOFT. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...MOISTURE RETURNS WITHIN THE
CONTINUED CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT BENEATH DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN RENEWED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THUNDER
CHANCES. ECHO THE CONVECTION DISCUSSION OF PRIOR OF LOW RISK / LOW
CONFIDENCE SEVERE WEATHER. HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS REMAIN
POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY CONCLUDES DURING THE MORNING HOURS PRIOR TO THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION.

BY THIS POINT STORM-TOTAL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 1.0- TO
1.5-INCH RANGE. CONSIDERING MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY TAKING PLACE WITHIN
A 12- TO 18-HOUR PERIOD...AND THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW WITHIN H85-3...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE CONCERNING WIDESPREAD FLOODING. NUISANCE POOR-
DRAINAGE FLOODING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND CONVECTION ARE ANTICIPATED. COULD SEE SHORT-DURATION
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT OVERALL SREF PROBABILITIES REMAIN
LOW FOR 1-INCH OF PRECIPITATION WITHIN 12-HOURS. 1-HOUR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE IS AROUND 1.75-INCHES. MMEFS SUGGESTS THAT WITH
ANTICIPATED RAINFALL THE CT-RIVER MAY REMAIN SWOLLEN FOR SLIGHTLY
LONGER.

TUESDAY MIDDAY TOWARDS EVENING...

COLD AIR ADVECTION PROCEEDING ALLOWING FOR STEEP LAPSE RATES ON UP
TO H7. EXPECTING TO BREAK OUT ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE DRY-SLOT REGION
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUNSHINE TO WARM TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 70-
DEGREES. SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION COULD
DEVELOP. BUT THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE BEING SO DRY AS INDICATED BY
THE NEGATIVE K-INDEX VALUES LEADS TO A QUIET WEATHER PERIOD TO CLOSE
OUT THE EARLY-WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PRECIP - GREATEST RISK FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WED AND WED NGT
* TEMPS - MILD WED THEN COOLER THAN NORMAL THURSDAY THRU SUN

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WED/THU BECOMES
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR OUR AREA THIS PERIOD. BY FRI MID LEVEL
LOW DRIFTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THEN EAST OF THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND
BUT STILL CLOSE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST SOME IMPACT. DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THU THEN GFS AND ITS
ENSEMBLES GEFS TRACK MID LEVEL LOW FARTHER NORTH INTO QUEBEC.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF/UKMET AND ECENS DIG MID LEVEL LOW FARTHER SOUTH
INTO NEW ENGLAND FRI THEN SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA SAT. GIVEN THE
EVOLVING BLOCKY PATTERN AND SUPPORT FROM -NAO/AO AND EPO
TELECONNECTIONS WE WILL FAVOR THE MORE AMPLIFIED AND SUPPRESSED
EC/UKMET AND ECENS SOLUTION THIS PERIOD. THIS FLOW REGIME WILL
SUPPORT TEMPS COOLER THAN NORMAL THURSDAY THRU SUNDAY ALONG WITH
GREATEST RISK FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WED/WED NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
IMPRESSIVE COLD FRONT.

DAILY DETAILS...

WED...SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE BUT GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON QPF FOR A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS WED INTO WED NIGHT AS FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE AND
ATTENDING COLD FRONT SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA. STILL MILD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH MULTI MODEL 2M TEMPS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON HIGHS 60-65!
ENJOY AS PATTERN CHANGE WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER WEATHER THU/FRI
AND THIS WEEKEND.

THURSDAY AND FRI...MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
BEGINS TO DRIFT TOWARD AND OVER NEW ENGLAND BY FRI. LOWER HEIGHTS
ALOFT CORRESPONDS TO COLDER TEMPS AT THE SURFACE. THUS BIG COOL DOWN
THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS ONLY 50-55...POSSIBLY ONLY U40S HIGH TERRAIN
WELL INLAND. 850 MB TEMP ANOMALY INDICATES TEMPS ABOUT -1 STANDARD
DEVIATION BELOW CLIMO. MAINLY DRY BUT CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING SHOWER.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY EXITS NORTH AND
EAST OF THE REGION. THUS TEMPS WARM SOMEWHAT ALOFT AND LOWERS THE
RISK FOR AFTN/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THROUGH 00Z...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN.
CHANCE -TSRA LATE. BLUSTERY E-FLOW WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS ALONG
THE COASTS. LLWS WITH 40-50 KT AT 2 KFT AGL BEGINNING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. -SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA. E/SE-
WINDS DIMINISHING. LLWS LIKELY TO START.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDDAY. COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WITH WINDS SHIFTING W/SW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LLWS LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUE NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR WITH MODEST SSW WINDS. MAINLY
DRY TOO.

WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT INCREASES THE RISK FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. CONDITIONS MAY DIP TO MVFR IN TIMES OF SHOWERS.

THU AND FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED AFTERNOON /
EVENING SHOWER POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING AS WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
HEAVIER SHOWERS SPREAD W TO E ACROSS THE WATERS. LIKELY TO SEE
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE. INCREASING
E-FLOW WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER THE E/SE-WATERS WHERE CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHEST. SMALL- CRAFT ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF AN INTERMITTENT GALE- FORCE GUST. SEAS BUILDING UP AROUND 10 TO
12 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH THE PERIOD W TO E. WINDS
DIMINISH ALLOWING SEAS TO BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AS RAINS WITH CHANCE
THUNDERSTORMS PUSH E/NE. EXPECT SEAS INITIALLY AROUND 10 TO 12
FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. ANY VISIBILITY ISSUES TO LIFT.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING RATHER QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY BY
MIDDAY. COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE WATERS WITH WINDS SHIFTING W/SW.
WAVES CONTINUING TO DIMINISH DOWN TO AROUND 6 TO 8 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUE NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MODEST SSW WINDS. LEFTOVER SE SWELLS
CONTINUE.

WED/WED NIGHT...COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. MODEST SSW WIND SHIFT TO WNW.

THU AND FRI...
MODEST WNW WINDS AS LOW PRES MEANDERS OVER MAINE OR NEW BRUNSWICK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO TRACK STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS
EVENING...BEFORE HIGH TIDE OCCURS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST /AROUND 03Z/
AND EAST COAST /ABOUT 06Z/. THIS RESULTS IN WINDS BEGINNING TO
SLACKEN AS HIGH TIDE APPROACHES. ALSO SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE
SO DURATION OF ONSHORE WINDS IS LIMITED.

ESTOFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE ROBUST AND REALISTIC THAN ETSS WITH
SURGE VALUES 1.0-1.5 FT AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. SEAS ALSO BUILDING
TO 10-15 FT JUST OFFSHORE. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE
AREAS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND SPLASH OVER. THUS WILL CONTINUE
WITH A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THESE LOCATIONS DURING THIS
EVENING AND EARLY TUE MORNING HIGH TIDES.

WINDS DO NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE FOR A
MODERATE COASTAL FLOOD EVENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR MAZ020-021.
RI...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR RIZ002-004>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-
     254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-236.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/RLG/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/RLG
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 201351
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
951 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
WITH EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH MILD TEMPS TUESDAY
MORNING GIVES WAY TO A DRYING TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT WED WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY MUCH
COOLER WEATHER THU INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
950 AM UPDATE...FIRST NARROW BAND OF RAIN HAS MOVED INTO NORTHEAST
MASSACHUSETTS WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE OCCURRING BEHIND THIS BAND.
THIS BAND OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE
NEXT HOUR. STEADIER RAIN IS JUST WORKING ITS WAY INTO WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT. HAVE MADE SOME UPDATES
TO THE POPS FOR THE DAY...HOWEVER...THESE WERE RELATIVELY MINOR
AND SHOULD NOT HAVE CHANGED THE FORECAST MUCH. ALSO MADE UPDATES
TO THE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS.
TEMPERATURES ARE STAYING A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST THIS MORNING.  EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===================================================================

LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WARM FRONT LIFTING NE ACROSS THE REGION COLLOCATED
WITH SYNOPTIC-FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE
BROUGHT N BY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SE-FLOW. ANOMALOUS PWATS NEARLY
1.5-INCHES /+2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE-NORMAL FOR THE MONTH OF
APRIL/. WILL SEE LIGHT RAIN SPREAD ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
MORNING BECOMING HEAVIER BY MIDDAY CONTINUING INTO EARLY EVENING
AS THE CONVERGENT NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND DEEP-LAYER
MOISTURE COMBINE ALONG THE WARM-FRONT ALOFT. EXPECTATION OF A
BROAD SWATH OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLE
CONVECTION DISCUSSED BELOW.

THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LATE DAY INTO EARLY EVENING CONVECTION
AS AN ELEVATED CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT LIFTS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG PUNCH OF WARM-MOIST AIR ALOFT.
CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS NOTEWORTHY WITH NEGATIVE SHOWALTERS AND DECENT
TOTAL-TOTALS AND K-INDICES. FORECAST SOLUTIONS VARY AS TO HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AND THAT ANY INSTABILITY IS ELEVATED AND NOT
SURFACE-BASED. ALSO AWARE OF DECENT TURNING WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. NEVERTHELESS AN EVALUATION OF CIPS ANALOGS...AND
NOTING THE E/SE-ONSHORE FLOW WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN A STABLE LOW-
LEVEL PROFILE AS BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE WITH
RESPECT TO A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THUNDER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
BUT INGREDIENTS HAVE TO BE JUST RIGHT TO GET SEVERE OUTCOMES. CIPS
ANALOGS AGREE ON BULK OF SEVERE WEATHER THREATS TO OUR SW. CAN NOT
RULE OUT SMALL HAIL...AND WITH ANY HEAVY RAIN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIP-DRAG TO BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE SURFACE. BUT AGAIN THINK
THERE IS A LOW-RISK AND THUS HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE. WILL STILL MONITOR
FOR THE POTENTIAL. SEE MORE ON THINKING WITH RESPECT TO FLOODING
FURTHER DOWN IN THE DISCUSSION.

A CHILLY DAMP DAY. EXPECTING LOW-CLOUDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES FOR
SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY WITH HEAVY RAIN BUT COULD ALSO SEE MARINE
IMPACTS WITH PROLONGED ONSHORE E/SE-FLOW. SUCH FLOW YIELDING COOLER
THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS AROUND THE UPPER-40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
OVERNIGHT INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY...

A LULL IS EXPECTED INITIALLY WITH A WARM-SECTOR DRY-SLOT FOLLOWING
THE ELEVATED PUNCH OF WARM-MOIST AIR COLLOCATED WITH THE WARM FRONT
ALOFT. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...MOISTURE RETURNS WITHIN THE
CONTINUED CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT BENEATH DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN RENEWED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THUNDER
CHANCES. ECHO THE CONVECTION DISCUSSION OF PRIOR OF LOW RISK / LOW
CONFIDENCE SEVERE WEATHER. HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS REMAIN
POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY CONCLUDES DURING THE MORNING HOURS PRIOR TO THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION.

BY THIS POINT STORM-TOTAL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 1.0- TO
1.5-INCH RANGE. CONSIDERING MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY TAKING PLACE WITHIN
A 12- TO 18-HOUR PERIOD...AND THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW WITHIN H85-3...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE CONCERNING WIDESPREAD FLOODING. NUISANCE POOR-
DRAINAGE FLOODING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND CONVECTION ARE ANTICIPATED. COULD SEE SHORT-DURATION
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT OVERALL SREF PROBABILITIES REMAIN
LOW FOR 1-INCH OF PRECIPITATION WITHIN 12-HOURS. 1-HOUR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE IS AROUND 1.75-INCHES. MMEFS SUGGESTS THAT WITH
ANTICIPATED RAINFALL THE CT-RIVER MAY REMAIN SWOLLEN FOR SLIGHTLY
LONGER.

TUESDAY MIDDAY TOWARDS EVENING...

COLD AIR ADVECTION PROCEEDING ALLOWING FOR STEEP LAPSE RATES ON UP
TO H7. EXPECTING TO BREAK OUT ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE DRY-SLOT REGION
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUNSHINE TO WARM TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 70-
DEGREES. SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION COULD
DEVELOP. BUT THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE BEING SO DRY AS INDICATED BY
THE NEGATIVE K-INDEX VALUES LEADS TO A QUIET WEATHER PERIOD TO CLOSE
OUT THE EARLY-WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PRECIP - GREATEST RISK FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WED AND WED NGT
* TEMPS - MILD WED THEN COOLER THAN NORMAL THURSDAY THRU SUN

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WED/THU BECOMES
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR OUR AREA THIS PERIOD. BY FRI MID LEVEL
LOW DRIFTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THEN EAST OF THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND
BUT STILL CLOSE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST SOME IMPACT. DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THU THEN GFS AND ITS
ENSEMBLES GEFS TRACK MID LEVEL LOW FARTHER NORTH INTO QUEBEC.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF/UKMET AND ECENS DIG MID LEVEL LOW FARTHER SOUTH
INTO NEW ENGLAND FRI THEN SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA SAT. GIVEN THE
EVOLVING BLOCKY PATTERN AND SUPPORT FROM -NAO/AO AND EPO
TELECONNECTIONS WE WILL FAVOR THE MORE AMPLIFIED AND SUPPRESSED
EC/UKMET AND ECENS SOLUTION THIS PERIOD. THIS FLOW REGIME WILL
SUPPORT TEMPS COOLER THAN NORMAL THURSDAY THRU SUNDAY ALONG WITH
GREATEST RISK FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WED/WED NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
IMPRESSIVE COLD FRONT.

DAILY DETAILS...

WED...SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE BUT GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON QPF FOR A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS WED INTO WED NIGHT AS FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE AND
ATTENDING COLD FRONT SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA. STILL MILD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH MULTI MODEL 2M TEMPS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON HIGHS 60-65!
ENJOY AS PATTERN CHANGE WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER WEATHER THU/FRI
AND THIS WEEKEND.

THURSDAY AND FRI...MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
BEGINS TO DRIFT TOWARD AND OVER NEW ENGLAND BY FRI. LOWER HEIGHTS
ALOFT CORRESPONDS TO COLDER TEMPS AT THE SURFACE. THUS BIG COOL DOWN
THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS ONLY 50-55...POSSIBLY ONLY U40S HIGH TERRAIN
WELL INLAND. 850 MB TEMP ANOMALY INDICATES TEMPS ABOUT -1 STANDARD
DEVIATION BELOW CLIMO. MAINLY DRY BUT CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING SHOWER.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY EXITS NORTH AND
EAST OF THE REGION. THUS TEMPS WARM SOMEWHAT ALOFT AND LOWERS THE
RISK FOR AFTN/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

7 AM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 06Z TAFS. BAND OF RAIN ENTERING WESTERN MA
ENTERS EASTERN MA INCLUDING BOSTON 8 AM TO 9 AM. THEN A LULL IN
ACTIVITY BEFORE FILLING BACK IN WITH MORE RAIN LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
==================================================================

TODAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO IFR-LIFR. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED +RA. CHANCE TSRA LATE. BLUSTERY E-FLOW WITH GUSTS UP TO 35
KTS ALONG THE E-COAST. LLWS WITH 50-60 KT SE-JET 2 KFT AGL BEGINNING
AROUND MIDDAY.

TONIGHT...IFR-LIFR CONTINUING. -SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA. E/SE-WINDS
DIMINISHING. LLWS WITH A 50-60 KT SE-JET 2 KFT AGL INITIALLY...
LESSENING LATE 40-50 KTS PRIOR TO CONCLUDING.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR RATHER QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY BY
MIDDAY. COLD FRONT SWEEPING THE TERMINALS WITH WINDS SHIFTING
W/SW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR MARINE STRATUS MAY IMPACT THE
TERMINAL EARLIER THAN FORECAST.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUE NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR WITH MODEST SSW WINDS. MAINLY
DRY TOO.

WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT INCREASES THE RISK FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. CONDITIONS MAY DIP TO MVFR IN TIMES OF SHOWERS.

THU AND FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED AFTERNOON /
EVENING SHOWER POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING AS WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
HEAVIER SHOWERS SPREAD W TO E ACROSS THE WATERS. LIKELY TO SEE
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE. INCREASING
E-FLOW WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER THE E/SE-WATERS WHERE CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHEST. SMALL- CRAFT ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF AN INTERMITTENT GALE- FORCE GUST. SEAS BUILDING UP AROUND 10 TO
12 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH THE PERIOD W TO E. WINDS
DIMINISH ALLOWING SEAS TO BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AS RAINS WITH CHANCE
THUNDERSTORMS PUSH E/NE. EXPECT SEAS INITIALLY AROUND 10 TO 12
FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. ANY VISIBILITY ISSUES TO LIFT.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING RATHER QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY BY
MIDDAY. COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE WATERS WITH WINDS SHIFTING W/SW.
WAVES CONTINUING TO DIMINISH DOWN TO AROUND 6 TO 8 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUE NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MODEST SSW WINDS. LEFTOVER SE SWELLS
CONTINUE.

WED/WED NIGHT...COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. MODEST SSW WIND SHIFT TO WNW.

THU AND FRI...
MODEST WNW WINDS AS LOW PRES MEANDERS OVER MAINE OR NEW BRUNSWICK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO TRACK STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS
EVENING...BEFORE HIGH TIDE OCCURS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST /AROUND 03Z/
AND EAST COAST /ABOUT 06Z/. THIS RESULTS IN WINDS BEGINNING TO
SLACKEN AS HIGH TIDE APPROACHES. ALSO SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE
SO DURATION OF ONSHORE WINDS IS LIMITED.

ESTOFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE ROBUST AND REALISTIC THAN ETSS WITH
SURGE VALUES 1.0-1.5 FT AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. SEAS ALSO BUILDING
TO 10-15 FT JUST OFFSHORE. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE
AREAS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND SPLASH OVER. THUS WILL CONTINUE
WITH A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THESE LOCATIONS DURING THIS
EVENING AND EARLY TUE MORNING HIGH TIDES.

WINDS DO NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE FOR A
MODERATE COASTAL FLOOD EVENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR MAZ020-021.
RI...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR RIZ002-004>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     255-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-251-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...RLG/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 201351
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
951 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
WITH EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH MILD TEMPS TUESDAY
MORNING GIVES WAY TO A DRYING TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT WED WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY MUCH
COOLER WEATHER THU INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
950 AM UPDATE...FIRST NARROW BAND OF RAIN HAS MOVED INTO NORTHEAST
MASSACHUSETTS WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE OCCURRING BEHIND THIS BAND.
THIS BAND OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE
NEXT HOUR. STEADIER RAIN IS JUST WORKING ITS WAY INTO WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT. HAVE MADE SOME UPDATES
TO THE POPS FOR THE DAY...HOWEVER...THESE WERE RELATIVELY MINOR
AND SHOULD NOT HAVE CHANGED THE FORECAST MUCH. ALSO MADE UPDATES
TO THE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS.
TEMPERATURES ARE STAYING A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST THIS MORNING.  EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===================================================================

LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WARM FRONT LIFTING NE ACROSS THE REGION COLLOCATED
WITH SYNOPTIC-FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE
BROUGHT N BY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SE-FLOW. ANOMALOUS PWATS NEARLY
1.5-INCHES /+2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE-NORMAL FOR THE MONTH OF
APRIL/. WILL SEE LIGHT RAIN SPREAD ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
MORNING BECOMING HEAVIER BY MIDDAY CONTINUING INTO EARLY EVENING
AS THE CONVERGENT NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND DEEP-LAYER
MOISTURE COMBINE ALONG THE WARM-FRONT ALOFT. EXPECTATION OF A
BROAD SWATH OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLE
CONVECTION DISCUSSED BELOW.

THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LATE DAY INTO EARLY EVENING CONVECTION
AS AN ELEVATED CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT LIFTS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG PUNCH OF WARM-MOIST AIR ALOFT.
CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS NOTEWORTHY WITH NEGATIVE SHOWALTERS AND DECENT
TOTAL-TOTALS AND K-INDICES. FORECAST SOLUTIONS VARY AS TO HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AND THAT ANY INSTABILITY IS ELEVATED AND NOT
SURFACE-BASED. ALSO AWARE OF DECENT TURNING WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. NEVERTHELESS AN EVALUATION OF CIPS ANALOGS...AND
NOTING THE E/SE-ONSHORE FLOW WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN A STABLE LOW-
LEVEL PROFILE AS BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE WITH
RESPECT TO A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THUNDER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
BUT INGREDIENTS HAVE TO BE JUST RIGHT TO GET SEVERE OUTCOMES. CIPS
ANALOGS AGREE ON BULK OF SEVERE WEATHER THREATS TO OUR SW. CAN NOT
RULE OUT SMALL HAIL...AND WITH ANY HEAVY RAIN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIP-DRAG TO BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE SURFACE. BUT AGAIN THINK
THERE IS A LOW-RISK AND THUS HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE. WILL STILL MONITOR
FOR THE POTENTIAL. SEE MORE ON THINKING WITH RESPECT TO FLOODING
FURTHER DOWN IN THE DISCUSSION.

A CHILLY DAMP DAY. EXPECTING LOW-CLOUDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES FOR
SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY WITH HEAVY RAIN BUT COULD ALSO SEE MARINE
IMPACTS WITH PROLONGED ONSHORE E/SE-FLOW. SUCH FLOW YIELDING COOLER
THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS AROUND THE UPPER-40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
OVERNIGHT INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY...

A LULL IS EXPECTED INITIALLY WITH A WARM-SECTOR DRY-SLOT FOLLOWING
THE ELEVATED PUNCH OF WARM-MOIST AIR COLLOCATED WITH THE WARM FRONT
ALOFT. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...MOISTURE RETURNS WITHIN THE
CONTINUED CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT BENEATH DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN RENEWED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THUNDER
CHANCES. ECHO THE CONVECTION DISCUSSION OF PRIOR OF LOW RISK / LOW
CONFIDENCE SEVERE WEATHER. HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS REMAIN
POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY CONCLUDES DURING THE MORNING HOURS PRIOR TO THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION.

BY THIS POINT STORM-TOTAL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 1.0- TO
1.5-INCH RANGE. CONSIDERING MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY TAKING PLACE WITHIN
A 12- TO 18-HOUR PERIOD...AND THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW WITHIN H85-3...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE CONCERNING WIDESPREAD FLOODING. NUISANCE POOR-
DRAINAGE FLOODING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND CONVECTION ARE ANTICIPATED. COULD SEE SHORT-DURATION
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT OVERALL SREF PROBABILITIES REMAIN
LOW FOR 1-INCH OF PRECIPITATION WITHIN 12-HOURS. 1-HOUR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE IS AROUND 1.75-INCHES. MMEFS SUGGESTS THAT WITH
ANTICIPATED RAINFALL THE CT-RIVER MAY REMAIN SWOLLEN FOR SLIGHTLY
LONGER.

TUESDAY MIDDAY TOWARDS EVENING...

COLD AIR ADVECTION PROCEEDING ALLOWING FOR STEEP LAPSE RATES ON UP
TO H7. EXPECTING TO BREAK OUT ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE DRY-SLOT REGION
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUNSHINE TO WARM TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 70-
DEGREES. SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION COULD
DEVELOP. BUT THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE BEING SO DRY AS INDICATED BY
THE NEGATIVE K-INDEX VALUES LEADS TO A QUIET WEATHER PERIOD TO CLOSE
OUT THE EARLY-WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PRECIP - GREATEST RISK FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WED AND WED NGT
* TEMPS - MILD WED THEN COOLER THAN NORMAL THURSDAY THRU SUN

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WED/THU BECOMES
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR OUR AREA THIS PERIOD. BY FRI MID LEVEL
LOW DRIFTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THEN EAST OF THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND
BUT STILL CLOSE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST SOME IMPACT. DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THU THEN GFS AND ITS
ENSEMBLES GEFS TRACK MID LEVEL LOW FARTHER NORTH INTO QUEBEC.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF/UKMET AND ECENS DIG MID LEVEL LOW FARTHER SOUTH
INTO NEW ENGLAND FRI THEN SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA SAT. GIVEN THE
EVOLVING BLOCKY PATTERN AND SUPPORT FROM -NAO/AO AND EPO
TELECONNECTIONS WE WILL FAVOR THE MORE AMPLIFIED AND SUPPRESSED
EC/UKMET AND ECENS SOLUTION THIS PERIOD. THIS FLOW REGIME WILL
SUPPORT TEMPS COOLER THAN NORMAL THURSDAY THRU SUNDAY ALONG WITH
GREATEST RISK FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WED/WED NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
IMPRESSIVE COLD FRONT.

DAILY DETAILS...

WED...SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE BUT GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON QPF FOR A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS WED INTO WED NIGHT AS FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE AND
ATTENDING COLD FRONT SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA. STILL MILD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH MULTI MODEL 2M TEMPS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON HIGHS 60-65!
ENJOY AS PATTERN CHANGE WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER WEATHER THU/FRI
AND THIS WEEKEND.

THURSDAY AND FRI...MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
BEGINS TO DRIFT TOWARD AND OVER NEW ENGLAND BY FRI. LOWER HEIGHTS
ALOFT CORRESPONDS TO COLDER TEMPS AT THE SURFACE. THUS BIG COOL DOWN
THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS ONLY 50-55...POSSIBLY ONLY U40S HIGH TERRAIN
WELL INLAND. 850 MB TEMP ANOMALY INDICATES TEMPS ABOUT -1 STANDARD
DEVIATION BELOW CLIMO. MAINLY DRY BUT CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING SHOWER.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY EXITS NORTH AND
EAST OF THE REGION. THUS TEMPS WARM SOMEWHAT ALOFT AND LOWERS THE
RISK FOR AFTN/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

7 AM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 06Z TAFS. BAND OF RAIN ENTERING WESTERN MA
ENTERS EASTERN MA INCLUDING BOSTON 8 AM TO 9 AM. THEN A LULL IN
ACTIVITY BEFORE FILLING BACK IN WITH MORE RAIN LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
==================================================================

TODAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO IFR-LIFR. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED +RA. CHANCE TSRA LATE. BLUSTERY E-FLOW WITH GUSTS UP TO 35
KTS ALONG THE E-COAST. LLWS WITH 50-60 KT SE-JET 2 KFT AGL BEGINNING
AROUND MIDDAY.

TONIGHT...IFR-LIFR CONTINUING. -SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA. E/SE-WINDS
DIMINISHING. LLWS WITH A 50-60 KT SE-JET 2 KFT AGL INITIALLY...
LESSENING LATE 40-50 KTS PRIOR TO CONCLUDING.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR RATHER QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY BY
MIDDAY. COLD FRONT SWEEPING THE TERMINALS WITH WINDS SHIFTING
W/SW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR MARINE STRATUS MAY IMPACT THE
TERMINAL EARLIER THAN FORECAST.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUE NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR WITH MODEST SSW WINDS. MAINLY
DRY TOO.

WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT INCREASES THE RISK FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. CONDITIONS MAY DIP TO MVFR IN TIMES OF SHOWERS.

THU AND FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED AFTERNOON /
EVENING SHOWER POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING AS WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
HEAVIER SHOWERS SPREAD W TO E ACROSS THE WATERS. LIKELY TO SEE
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE. INCREASING
E-FLOW WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER THE E/SE-WATERS WHERE CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHEST. SMALL- CRAFT ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF AN INTERMITTENT GALE- FORCE GUST. SEAS BUILDING UP AROUND 10 TO
12 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH THE PERIOD W TO E. WINDS
DIMINISH ALLOWING SEAS TO BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AS RAINS WITH CHANCE
THUNDERSTORMS PUSH E/NE. EXPECT SEAS INITIALLY AROUND 10 TO 12
FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. ANY VISIBILITY ISSUES TO LIFT.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING RATHER QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY BY
MIDDAY. COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE WATERS WITH WINDS SHIFTING W/SW.
WAVES CONTINUING TO DIMINISH DOWN TO AROUND 6 TO 8 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUE NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MODEST SSW WINDS. LEFTOVER SE SWELLS
CONTINUE.

WED/WED NIGHT...COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. MODEST SSW WIND SHIFT TO WNW.

THU AND FRI...
MODEST WNW WINDS AS LOW PRES MEANDERS OVER MAINE OR NEW BRUNSWICK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO TRACK STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS
EVENING...BEFORE HIGH TIDE OCCURS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST /AROUND 03Z/
AND EAST COAST /ABOUT 06Z/. THIS RESULTS IN WINDS BEGINNING TO
SLACKEN AS HIGH TIDE APPROACHES. ALSO SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE
SO DURATION OF ONSHORE WINDS IS LIMITED.

ESTOFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE ROBUST AND REALISTIC THAN ETSS WITH
SURGE VALUES 1.0-1.5 FT AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. SEAS ALSO BUILDING
TO 10-15 FT JUST OFFSHORE. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE
AREAS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND SPLASH OVER. THUS WILL CONTINUE
WITH A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THESE LOCATIONS DURING THIS
EVENING AND EARLY TUE MORNING HIGH TIDES.

WINDS DO NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE FOR A
MODERATE COASTAL FLOOD EVENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR MAZ020-021.
RI...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR RIZ002-004>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     255-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-251-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...RLG/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 201059
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
659 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
WITH EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH MILD TEMPS TUESDAY
MORNING GIVES WAY TO A DRYING TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT WED WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY MUCH
COOLER WEATHER THU INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

7 AM UPDATE...

A NARROW BAND OF RAIN HAS DEVELOPED FROM NORTHWEST MA INTO EASTERN
CT AND IS MOVING STEADILY NORTHEAST. THIS BAND OF RAIN HAS FORMED
ON THE NOSE OF THE MID LEVEL JET. RADAR APPEARS MORE THREATENING
THAN REALITY AS DUAL POL CC PRODUCT CONFIRMING BRIGHT BANDING
TAKING PLACE. THUS MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IN THIS BAND. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION A FEW SNOW FLAKES MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE GIVEN COLD WET
BULB TEMPS. RAIN WILL BE SHORT LIVED INITALLY GIVEN BREAK ON RADAR
BUT AREA WILL FILL IN AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES AS STRENGTHENING
LOW AND MID LEVEL JET PROVIDE ABUNDANT THERMAL AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION.

ONLY CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO ADJUST HOURLY POPS TO
BETTER REFLECT RADAR TRENDS AND MODIFY HOURLY TEMPS TO MATCH UP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===================================================================

LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WARM FRONT LIFTING NE ACROSS THE REGION COLLOCATED
WITH SYNOPTIC-FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE
BROUGHT N BY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SE-FLOW. ANOMALOUS PWATS NEARLY
1.5-INCHES /+2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE-NORMAL FOR THE MONTH OF
APRIL/. WILL SEE LIGHT RAIN SPREAD ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
MORNING BECOMING HEAVIER BY MIDDAY CONTINUING INTO EARLY EVENING
AS THE CONVERGENT NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND DEEP-LAYER
MOISTURE COMBINE ALONG THE WARM-FRONT ALOFT. EXPECTATION OF A
BROAD SWATH OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLE
CONVECTION DISCUSSED BELOW.

THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LATE DAY INTO EARLY EVENING CONVECTION
AS AN ELEVATED CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT LIFTS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG PUNCH OF WARM-MOIST AIR ALOFT.
CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS NOTEWORTHY WITH NEGATIVE SHOWALTERS AND DECENT
TOTAL-TOTALS AND K-INDICES. FORECAST SOLUTIONS VARY AS TO HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AND THAT ANY INSTABILITY IS ELEVATED AND NOT
SURFACE-BASED. ALSO AWARE OF DECENT TURNING WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. NEVERTHELESS AN EVALUATION OF CIPS ANALOGS...AND
NOTING THE E/SE-ONSHORE FLOW WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN A STABLE LOW-
LEVEL PROFILE AS BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE WITH
RESPECT TO A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THUNDER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
BUT INGREDIENTS HAVE TO BE JUST RIGHT TO GET SEVERE OUTCOMES. CIPS
ANALOGS AGREE ON BULK OF SEVERE WEATHER THREATS TO OUR SW. CAN NOT
RULE OUT SMALL HAIL...AND WITH ANY HEAVY RAIN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIP-DRAG TO BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE SURFACE. BUT AGAIN THINK
THERE IS A LOW-RISK AND THUS HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE. WILL STILL MONITOR
FOR THE POTENTIAL. SEE MORE ON THINKING WITH RESPECT TO FLOODING
FURTHER DOWN IN THE DISCUSSION.

A CHILLY DAMP DAY. EXPECTING LOW-CLOUDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES FOR
SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY WITH HEAVY RAIN BUT COULD ALSO SEE MARINE
IMPACTS WITH PROLONGED ONSHORE E/SE-FLOW. SUCH FLOW YIELDING COOLER
THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS AROUND THE UPPER-40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
OVERNIGHT INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY...

A LULL IS EXPECTED INITIALLY WITH A WARM-SECTOR DRY-SLOT FOLLOWING
THE ELEVATED PUNCH OF WARM-MOIST AIR COLLOCATED WITH THE WARM FRONT
ALOFT. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...MOISTURE RETURNS WITHIN THE
CONTINUED CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT BENEATH DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN RENEWED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THUNDER
CHANCES. ECHO THE CONVECTION DISCUSSION OF PRIOR OF LOW RISK / LOW
CONFIDENCE SEVERE WEATHER. HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS REMAIN
POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY CONCLUDES DURING THE MORNING HOURS PRIOR TO THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION.

BY THIS POINT STORM-TOTAL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 1.0- TO
1.5-INCH RANGE. CONSIDERING MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY TAKING PLACE WITHIN
A 12- TO 18-HOUR PERIOD...AND THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW WITHIN H85-3...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE CONCERNING WIDESPREAD FLOODING. NUISANCE POOR-
DRAINAGE FLOODING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND CONVECTION ARE ANTICIPATED. COULD SEE SHORT-DURATION
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT OVERALL SREF PROBABILITIES REMAIN
LOW FOR 1-INCH OF PRECIPITATION WITHIN 12-HOURS. 1-HOUR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE IS AROUND 1.75-INCHES. MMEFS SUGGESTS THAT WITH
ANTICIPATED RAINFALL THE CT-RIVER MAY REMAIN SWOLLEN FOR SLIGHTLY
LONGER.

TUESDAY MIDDAY TOWARDS EVENING...

COLD AIR ADVECTION PROCEEDING ALLOWING FOR STEEP LAPSE RATES ON UP
TO H7. EXPECTING TO BREAK OUT ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE DRY-SLOT REGION
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUNSHINE TO WARM TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 70-
DEGREES. SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION COULD
DEVELOP. BUT THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE BEING SO DRY AS INDICATED BY
THE NEGATIVE K-INDEX VALUES LEADS TO A QUIET WEATHER PERIOD TO CLOSE
OUT THE EARLY-WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* PRECIP - GREATEST RISK FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WED AND WED NGT
* TEMPS - MILD WED THEN COOLER THAN NORMAL THURSDAY THRU SUN

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WED/THU BECOMES
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR OUR AREA THIS PERIOD. BY FRI MID LEVEL
LOW DRIFTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THEN EAST OF THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND
BUT STILL CLOSE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST SOME IMPACT. DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THU THEN GFS AND ITS
ENSEMBLES GEFS TRACK MID LEVEL LOW FARTHER NORTH INTO QUEBEC.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF/UKMET AND ECENS DIG MID LEVEL LOW FARTHER SOUTH
INTO NEW ENGLAND FRI THEN SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA SAT. GIVEN THE
EVOLVING BLOCKY PATTERN AND SUPPORT FROM -NAO/AO AND EPO
TELECONNECTIONS WE WILL FAVOR THE MORE AMPLIFIED AND SUPPRESSED
EC/UKMET AND ECENS SOLUTION THIS PERIOD. THIS FLOW REGIME WILL
SUPPORT TEMPS COOLER THAN NORMAL THURSDAY THRU SUNDAY ALONG WITH
GREATEST RISK FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WED/WED NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
IMPRESSIVE COLD FRONT.

DAILY DETAILS...

WED...SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE BUT GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON QPF FOR A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS WED INTO WED NIGHT AS FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE AND
ATTENDING COLD FRONT SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA. STILL MILD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH MULTI MODEL 2M TEMPS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON HIGHS 60-65!
ENJOY AS PATTERN CHANGE WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER WEATHER THU/FRI
AND THIS WEEKEND.

THURSDAY AND FRI...MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
BEGINS TO DRIFT TOWARD AND OVER NEW ENGLAND BY FRI. LOWER HEIGHTS
ALOFT CORRESPONDS TO COLDER TEMPS AT THE SURFACE. THUS BIG COOL DOWN
THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS ONLY 50-55...POSSIBLY ONLY U40S HIGH TERRAIN
WELL INLAND. 850 MB TEMP ANOMALY INDICATES TEMPS ABOUT -1 STANDARD
DEVIATION BELOW CLIMO. MAINLY DRY BUT CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING SHOWER.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY EXITS NORTH AND
EAST OF THE REGION. THUS TEMPS WARM SOMEWHAT ALOFT AND LOWERS THE
RISK FOR AFTN/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

7 AM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 06Z TAFS. BAND OF RAIN ENTERING WESTERN MA
ENTERS EASTERN MA INCLUDING BOSTON 8 AM TO 9 AM. THEN A LULL IN
ACTIVITY BEFORE FILLING BACK IN WITH MORE RAIN LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
==================================================================

TODAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO IFR-LIFR. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED +RA. CHANCE TSRA LATE. BLUSTERY E-FLOW WITH GUSTS UP TO 35
KTS ALONG THE E-COAST. LLWS WITH 50-60 KT SE-JET 2 KFT AGL BEGINNING
AROUND MIDDAY.

TONIGHT...IFR-LIFR CONTINUING. -SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA. E/SE-WINDS
DIMINISHING. LLWS WITH A 50-60 KT SE-JET 2 KFT AGL INITIALLY...
LESSENING LATE 40-50 KTS PRIOR TO CONCLUDING.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR RATHER QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY BY
MIDDAY. COLD FRONT SWEEPING THE TERMINALS WITH WINDS SHIFTING
W/SW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR MARINE STRATUS MAY IMPACT THE
TERMINAL EARLIER THAN FORECAST.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUE NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR WITH MODEST SSW WINDS. MAINLY
DRY TOO.

WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT INCREASES THE RISK FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. CONDITIONS MAY DIP TO MVFR IN TIMES OF SHOWERS.

THU AND FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED AFTERNOON /
EVENING SHOWER POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING AS WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
HEAVIER SHOWERS SPREAD W TO E ACROSS THE WATERS. LIKELY TO SEE
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE. INCREASING
E-FLOW WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER THE E/SE-WATERS WHERE CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHEST. SMALL- CRAFT ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF AN INTERMITTENT GALE- FORCE GUST. SEAS BUILDING UP AROUND 10 TO
12 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH THE PERIOD W TO E. WINDS
DIMINISH ALLOWING SEAS TO BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AS RAINS WITH CHANCE
THUNDERSTORMS PUSH E/NE. EXPECT SEAS INITIALLY AROUND 10 TO 12
FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. ANY VISIBILITY ISSUES TO LIFT.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING RATHER QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY BY
MIDDAY. COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE WATERS WITH WINDS SHIFTING W/SW.
WAVES CONTINUING TO DIMINISH DOWN TO AROUND 6 TO 8 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUE NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MODEST SSW WINDS. LEFTOVER SE SWELLS
CONTINUE.

WED/WED NIGHT...COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. MODEST SSW WIND SHIFT TO WNW.

THU AND FRI...
MODEST WNW WINDS AS LOW PRES MEANDERS OVER MAINE OR NEW BRUNSWICK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO TRACK STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS
EVENING...BEFORE HIGH TIDE OCCURS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST /AROUND 03Z/
AND EAST COAST /ABOUT 06Z/. THIS RESULTS IN WINDS BEGINNING TO
SLACKEN AS HIGH TIDE APPROACHES. ALSO SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE
SO DURATION OF ONSHORE WINDS IS LIMITED.

ESTOFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE ROBUST AND REALISTIC THAN ETSS WITH
SURGE VALUES 1.0-1.5 FT AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. SEAS ALSO BUILDING
TO 10-15 FT JUST OFFSHORE. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE
AREAS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND SPLASH OVER. THUS WILL CONTINUE
WITH A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THESE LOCATIONS DURING THIS
EVENING AND EARLY TUE MORNING HIGH TIDES.

WINDS DO NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE FOR A
MODERATE COASTAL FLOOD EVENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR MAZ020-021.
RI...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR RIZ002-004>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     255-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     251-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 201059
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
659 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
WITH EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH MILD TEMPS TUESDAY
MORNING GIVES WAY TO A DRYING TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT WED WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY MUCH
COOLER WEATHER THU INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

7 AM UPDATE...

A NARROW BAND OF RAIN HAS DEVELOPED FROM NORTHWEST MA INTO EASTERN
CT AND IS MOVING STEADILY NORTHEAST. THIS BAND OF RAIN HAS FORMED
ON THE NOSE OF THE MID LEVEL JET. RADAR APPEARS MORE THREATENING
THAN REALITY AS DUAL POL CC PRODUCT CONFIRMING BRIGHT BANDING
TAKING PLACE. THUS MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IN THIS BAND. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION A FEW SNOW FLAKES MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE GIVEN COLD WET
BULB TEMPS. RAIN WILL BE SHORT LIVED INITALLY GIVEN BREAK ON RADAR
BUT AREA WILL FILL IN AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES AS STRENGTHENING
LOW AND MID LEVEL JET PROVIDE ABUNDANT THERMAL AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION.

ONLY CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO ADJUST HOURLY POPS TO
BETTER REFLECT RADAR TRENDS AND MODIFY HOURLY TEMPS TO MATCH UP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===================================================================

LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WARM FRONT LIFTING NE ACROSS THE REGION COLLOCATED
WITH SYNOPTIC-FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE
BROUGHT N BY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SE-FLOW. ANOMALOUS PWATS NEARLY
1.5-INCHES /+2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE-NORMAL FOR THE MONTH OF
APRIL/. WILL SEE LIGHT RAIN SPREAD ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
MORNING BECOMING HEAVIER BY MIDDAY CONTINUING INTO EARLY EVENING
AS THE CONVERGENT NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND DEEP-LAYER
MOISTURE COMBINE ALONG THE WARM-FRONT ALOFT. EXPECTATION OF A
BROAD SWATH OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLE
CONVECTION DISCUSSED BELOW.

THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LATE DAY INTO EARLY EVENING CONVECTION
AS AN ELEVATED CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT LIFTS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG PUNCH OF WARM-MOIST AIR ALOFT.
CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS NOTEWORTHY WITH NEGATIVE SHOWALTERS AND DECENT
TOTAL-TOTALS AND K-INDICES. FORECAST SOLUTIONS VARY AS TO HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AND THAT ANY INSTABILITY IS ELEVATED AND NOT
SURFACE-BASED. ALSO AWARE OF DECENT TURNING WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. NEVERTHELESS AN EVALUATION OF CIPS ANALOGS...AND
NOTING THE E/SE-ONSHORE FLOW WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN A STABLE LOW-
LEVEL PROFILE AS BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE WITH
RESPECT TO A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THUNDER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
BUT INGREDIENTS HAVE TO BE JUST RIGHT TO GET SEVERE OUTCOMES. CIPS
ANALOGS AGREE ON BULK OF SEVERE WEATHER THREATS TO OUR SW. CAN NOT
RULE OUT SMALL HAIL...AND WITH ANY HEAVY RAIN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIP-DRAG TO BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE SURFACE. BUT AGAIN THINK
THERE IS A LOW-RISK AND THUS HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE. WILL STILL MONITOR
FOR THE POTENTIAL. SEE MORE ON THINKING WITH RESPECT TO FLOODING
FURTHER DOWN IN THE DISCUSSION.

A CHILLY DAMP DAY. EXPECTING LOW-CLOUDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES FOR
SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY WITH HEAVY RAIN BUT COULD ALSO SEE MARINE
IMPACTS WITH PROLONGED ONSHORE E/SE-FLOW. SUCH FLOW YIELDING COOLER
THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS AROUND THE UPPER-40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
OVERNIGHT INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY...

A LULL IS EXPECTED INITIALLY WITH A WARM-SECTOR DRY-SLOT FOLLOWING
THE ELEVATED PUNCH OF WARM-MOIST AIR COLLOCATED WITH THE WARM FRONT
ALOFT. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...MOISTURE RETURNS WITHIN THE
CONTINUED CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT BENEATH DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN RENEWED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THUNDER
CHANCES. ECHO THE CONVECTION DISCUSSION OF PRIOR OF LOW RISK / LOW
CONFIDENCE SEVERE WEATHER. HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS REMAIN
POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY CONCLUDES DURING THE MORNING HOURS PRIOR TO THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION.

BY THIS POINT STORM-TOTAL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 1.0- TO
1.5-INCH RANGE. CONSIDERING MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY TAKING PLACE WITHIN
A 12- TO 18-HOUR PERIOD...AND THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW WITHIN H85-3...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE CONCERNING WIDESPREAD FLOODING. NUISANCE POOR-
DRAINAGE FLOODING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND CONVECTION ARE ANTICIPATED. COULD SEE SHORT-DURATION
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT OVERALL SREF PROBABILITIES REMAIN
LOW FOR 1-INCH OF PRECIPITATION WITHIN 12-HOURS. 1-HOUR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE IS AROUND 1.75-INCHES. MMEFS SUGGESTS THAT WITH
ANTICIPATED RAINFALL THE CT-RIVER MAY REMAIN SWOLLEN FOR SLIGHTLY
LONGER.

TUESDAY MIDDAY TOWARDS EVENING...

COLD AIR ADVECTION PROCEEDING ALLOWING FOR STEEP LAPSE RATES ON UP
TO H7. EXPECTING TO BREAK OUT ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE DRY-SLOT REGION
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUNSHINE TO WARM TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 70-
DEGREES. SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION COULD
DEVELOP. BUT THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE BEING SO DRY AS INDICATED BY
THE NEGATIVE K-INDEX VALUES LEADS TO A QUIET WEATHER PERIOD TO CLOSE
OUT THE EARLY-WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* PRECIP - GREATEST RISK FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WED AND WED NGT
* TEMPS - MILD WED THEN COOLER THAN NORMAL THURSDAY THRU SUN

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WED/THU BECOMES
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR OUR AREA THIS PERIOD. BY FRI MID LEVEL
LOW DRIFTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THEN EAST OF THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND
BUT STILL CLOSE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST SOME IMPACT. DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THU THEN GFS AND ITS
ENSEMBLES GEFS TRACK MID LEVEL LOW FARTHER NORTH INTO QUEBEC.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF/UKMET AND ECENS DIG MID LEVEL LOW FARTHER SOUTH
INTO NEW ENGLAND FRI THEN SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA SAT. GIVEN THE
EVOLVING BLOCKY PATTERN AND SUPPORT FROM -NAO/AO AND EPO
TELECONNECTIONS WE WILL FAVOR THE MORE AMPLIFIED AND SUPPRESSED
EC/UKMET AND ECENS SOLUTION THIS PERIOD. THIS FLOW REGIME WILL
SUPPORT TEMPS COOLER THAN NORMAL THURSDAY THRU SUNDAY ALONG WITH
GREATEST RISK FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WED/WED NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
IMPRESSIVE COLD FRONT.

DAILY DETAILS...

WED...SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE BUT GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON QPF FOR A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS WED INTO WED NIGHT AS FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE AND
ATTENDING COLD FRONT SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA. STILL MILD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH MULTI MODEL 2M TEMPS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON HIGHS 60-65!
ENJOY AS PATTERN CHANGE WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER WEATHER THU/FRI
AND THIS WEEKEND.

THURSDAY AND FRI...MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
BEGINS TO DRIFT TOWARD AND OVER NEW ENGLAND BY FRI. LOWER HEIGHTS
ALOFT CORRESPONDS TO COLDER TEMPS AT THE SURFACE. THUS BIG COOL DOWN
THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS ONLY 50-55...POSSIBLY ONLY U40S HIGH TERRAIN
WELL INLAND. 850 MB TEMP ANOMALY INDICATES TEMPS ABOUT -1 STANDARD
DEVIATION BELOW CLIMO. MAINLY DRY BUT CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING SHOWER.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY EXITS NORTH AND
EAST OF THE REGION. THUS TEMPS WARM SOMEWHAT ALOFT AND LOWERS THE
RISK FOR AFTN/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

7 AM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 06Z TAFS. BAND OF RAIN ENTERING WESTERN MA
ENTERS EASTERN MA INCLUDING BOSTON 8 AM TO 9 AM. THEN A LULL IN
ACTIVITY BEFORE FILLING BACK IN WITH MORE RAIN LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
==================================================================

TODAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO IFR-LIFR. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED +RA. CHANCE TSRA LATE. BLUSTERY E-FLOW WITH GUSTS UP TO 35
KTS ALONG THE E-COAST. LLWS WITH 50-60 KT SE-JET 2 KFT AGL BEGINNING
AROUND MIDDAY.

TONIGHT...IFR-LIFR CONTINUING. -SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA. E/SE-WINDS
DIMINISHING. LLWS WITH A 50-60 KT SE-JET 2 KFT AGL INITIALLY...
LESSENING LATE 40-50 KTS PRIOR TO CONCLUDING.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR RATHER QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY BY
MIDDAY. COLD FRONT SWEEPING THE TERMINALS WITH WINDS SHIFTING
W/SW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR MARINE STRATUS MAY IMPACT THE
TERMINAL EARLIER THAN FORECAST.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUE NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR WITH MODEST SSW WINDS. MAINLY
DRY TOO.

WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT INCREASES THE RISK FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. CONDITIONS MAY DIP TO MVFR IN TIMES OF SHOWERS.

THU AND FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED AFTERNOON /
EVENING SHOWER POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING AS WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
HEAVIER SHOWERS SPREAD W TO E ACROSS THE WATERS. LIKELY TO SEE
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE. INCREASING
E-FLOW WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER THE E/SE-WATERS WHERE CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHEST. SMALL- CRAFT ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF AN INTERMITTENT GALE- FORCE GUST. SEAS BUILDING UP AROUND 10 TO
12 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH THE PERIOD W TO E. WINDS
DIMINISH ALLOWING SEAS TO BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AS RAINS WITH CHANCE
THUNDERSTORMS PUSH E/NE. EXPECT SEAS INITIALLY AROUND 10 TO 12
FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. ANY VISIBILITY ISSUES TO LIFT.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING RATHER QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY BY
MIDDAY. COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE WATERS WITH WINDS SHIFTING W/SW.
WAVES CONTINUING TO DIMINISH DOWN TO AROUND 6 TO 8 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUE NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MODEST SSW WINDS. LEFTOVER SE SWELLS
CONTINUE.

WED/WED NIGHT...COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. MODEST SSW WIND SHIFT TO WNW.

THU AND FRI...
MODEST WNW WINDS AS LOW PRES MEANDERS OVER MAINE OR NEW BRUNSWICK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO TRACK STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS
EVENING...BEFORE HIGH TIDE OCCURS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST /AROUND 03Z/
AND EAST COAST /ABOUT 06Z/. THIS RESULTS IN WINDS BEGINNING TO
SLACKEN AS HIGH TIDE APPROACHES. ALSO SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE
SO DURATION OF ONSHORE WINDS IS LIMITED.

ESTOFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE ROBUST AND REALISTIC THAN ETSS WITH
SURGE VALUES 1.0-1.5 FT AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. SEAS ALSO BUILDING
TO 10-15 FT JUST OFFSHORE. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE
AREAS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND SPLASH OVER. THUS WILL CONTINUE
WITH A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THESE LOCATIONS DURING THIS
EVENING AND EARLY TUE MORNING HIGH TIDES.

WINDS DO NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE FOR A
MODERATE COASTAL FLOOD EVENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR MAZ020-021.
RI...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR RIZ002-004>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     255-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     251-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 201059
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
659 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
WITH EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH MILD TEMPS TUESDAY
MORNING GIVES WAY TO A DRYING TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT WED WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY MUCH
COOLER WEATHER THU INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

7 AM UPDATE...

A NARROW BAND OF RAIN HAS DEVELOPED FROM NORTHWEST MA INTO EASTERN
CT AND IS MOVING STEADILY NORTHEAST. THIS BAND OF RAIN HAS FORMED
ON THE NOSE OF THE MID LEVEL JET. RADAR APPEARS MORE THREATENING
THAN REALITY AS DUAL POL CC PRODUCT CONFIRMING BRIGHT BANDING
TAKING PLACE. THUS MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IN THIS BAND. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION A FEW SNOW FLAKES MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE GIVEN COLD WET
BULB TEMPS. RAIN WILL BE SHORT LIVED INITALLY GIVEN BREAK ON RADAR
BUT AREA WILL FILL IN AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES AS STRENGTHENING
LOW AND MID LEVEL JET PROVIDE ABUNDANT THERMAL AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION.

ONLY CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO ADJUST HOURLY POPS TO
BETTER REFLECT RADAR TRENDS AND MODIFY HOURLY TEMPS TO MATCH UP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===================================================================

LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WARM FRONT LIFTING NE ACROSS THE REGION COLLOCATED
WITH SYNOPTIC-FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE
BROUGHT N BY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SE-FLOW. ANOMALOUS PWATS NEARLY
1.5-INCHES /+2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE-NORMAL FOR THE MONTH OF
APRIL/. WILL SEE LIGHT RAIN SPREAD ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
MORNING BECOMING HEAVIER BY MIDDAY CONTINUING INTO EARLY EVENING
AS THE CONVERGENT NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND DEEP-LAYER
MOISTURE COMBINE ALONG THE WARM-FRONT ALOFT. EXPECTATION OF A
BROAD SWATH OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLE
CONVECTION DISCUSSED BELOW.

THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LATE DAY INTO EARLY EVENING CONVECTION
AS AN ELEVATED CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT LIFTS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG PUNCH OF WARM-MOIST AIR ALOFT.
CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS NOTEWORTHY WITH NEGATIVE SHOWALTERS AND DECENT
TOTAL-TOTALS AND K-INDICES. FORECAST SOLUTIONS VARY AS TO HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AND THAT ANY INSTABILITY IS ELEVATED AND NOT
SURFACE-BASED. ALSO AWARE OF DECENT TURNING WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. NEVERTHELESS AN EVALUATION OF CIPS ANALOGS...AND
NOTING THE E/SE-ONSHORE FLOW WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN A STABLE LOW-
LEVEL PROFILE AS BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE WITH
RESPECT TO A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THUNDER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
BUT INGREDIENTS HAVE TO BE JUST RIGHT TO GET SEVERE OUTCOMES. CIPS
ANALOGS AGREE ON BULK OF SEVERE WEATHER THREATS TO OUR SW. CAN NOT
RULE OUT SMALL HAIL...AND WITH ANY HEAVY RAIN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIP-DRAG TO BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE SURFACE. BUT AGAIN THINK
THERE IS A LOW-RISK AND THUS HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE. WILL STILL MONITOR
FOR THE POTENTIAL. SEE MORE ON THINKING WITH RESPECT TO FLOODING
FURTHER DOWN IN THE DISCUSSION.

A CHILLY DAMP DAY. EXPECTING LOW-CLOUDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES FOR
SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY WITH HEAVY RAIN BUT COULD ALSO SEE MARINE
IMPACTS WITH PROLONGED ONSHORE E/SE-FLOW. SUCH FLOW YIELDING COOLER
THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS AROUND THE UPPER-40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
OVERNIGHT INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY...

A LULL IS EXPECTED INITIALLY WITH A WARM-SECTOR DRY-SLOT FOLLOWING
THE ELEVATED PUNCH OF WARM-MOIST AIR COLLOCATED WITH THE WARM FRONT
ALOFT. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...MOISTURE RETURNS WITHIN THE
CONTINUED CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT BENEATH DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN RENEWED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THUNDER
CHANCES. ECHO THE CONVECTION DISCUSSION OF PRIOR OF LOW RISK / LOW
CONFIDENCE SEVERE WEATHER. HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS REMAIN
POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY CONCLUDES DURING THE MORNING HOURS PRIOR TO THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION.

BY THIS POINT STORM-TOTAL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 1.0- TO
1.5-INCH RANGE. CONSIDERING MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY TAKING PLACE WITHIN
A 12- TO 18-HOUR PERIOD...AND THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW WITHIN H85-3...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE CONCERNING WIDESPREAD FLOODING. NUISANCE POOR-
DRAINAGE FLOODING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND CONVECTION ARE ANTICIPATED. COULD SEE SHORT-DURATION
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT OVERALL SREF PROBABILITIES REMAIN
LOW FOR 1-INCH OF PRECIPITATION WITHIN 12-HOURS. 1-HOUR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE IS AROUND 1.75-INCHES. MMEFS SUGGESTS THAT WITH
ANTICIPATED RAINFALL THE CT-RIVER MAY REMAIN SWOLLEN FOR SLIGHTLY
LONGER.

TUESDAY MIDDAY TOWARDS EVENING...

COLD AIR ADVECTION PROCEEDING ALLOWING FOR STEEP LAPSE RATES ON UP
TO H7. EXPECTING TO BREAK OUT ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE DRY-SLOT REGION
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUNSHINE TO WARM TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 70-
DEGREES. SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION COULD
DEVELOP. BUT THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE BEING SO DRY AS INDICATED BY
THE NEGATIVE K-INDEX VALUES LEADS TO A QUIET WEATHER PERIOD TO CLOSE
OUT THE EARLY-WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* PRECIP - GREATEST RISK FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WED AND WED NGT
* TEMPS - MILD WED THEN COOLER THAN NORMAL THURSDAY THRU SUN

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WED/THU BECOMES
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR OUR AREA THIS PERIOD. BY FRI MID LEVEL
LOW DRIFTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THEN EAST OF THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND
BUT STILL CLOSE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST SOME IMPACT. DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THU THEN GFS AND ITS
ENSEMBLES GEFS TRACK MID LEVEL LOW FARTHER NORTH INTO QUEBEC.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF/UKMET AND ECENS DIG MID LEVEL LOW FARTHER SOUTH
INTO NEW ENGLAND FRI THEN SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA SAT. GIVEN THE
EVOLVING BLOCKY PATTERN AND SUPPORT FROM -NAO/AO AND EPO
TELECONNECTIONS WE WILL FAVOR THE MORE AMPLIFIED AND SUPPRESSED
EC/UKMET AND ECENS SOLUTION THIS PERIOD. THIS FLOW REGIME WILL
SUPPORT TEMPS COOLER THAN NORMAL THURSDAY THRU SUNDAY ALONG WITH
GREATEST RISK FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WED/WED NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
IMPRESSIVE COLD FRONT.

DAILY DETAILS...

WED...SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE BUT GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON QPF FOR A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS WED INTO WED NIGHT AS FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE AND
ATTENDING COLD FRONT SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA. STILL MILD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH MULTI MODEL 2M TEMPS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON HIGHS 60-65!
ENJOY AS PATTERN CHANGE WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER WEATHER THU/FRI
AND THIS WEEKEND.

THURSDAY AND FRI...MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
BEGINS TO DRIFT TOWARD AND OVER NEW ENGLAND BY FRI. LOWER HEIGHTS
ALOFT CORRESPONDS TO COLDER TEMPS AT THE SURFACE. THUS BIG COOL DOWN
THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS ONLY 50-55...POSSIBLY ONLY U40S HIGH TERRAIN
WELL INLAND. 850 MB TEMP ANOMALY INDICATES TEMPS ABOUT -1 STANDARD
DEVIATION BELOW CLIMO. MAINLY DRY BUT CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING SHOWER.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY EXITS NORTH AND
EAST OF THE REGION. THUS TEMPS WARM SOMEWHAT ALOFT AND LOWERS THE
RISK FOR AFTN/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

7 AM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 06Z TAFS. BAND OF RAIN ENTERING WESTERN MA
ENTERS EASTERN MA INCLUDING BOSTON 8 AM TO 9 AM. THEN A LULL IN
ACTIVITY BEFORE FILLING BACK IN WITH MORE RAIN LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
==================================================================

TODAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO IFR-LIFR. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED +RA. CHANCE TSRA LATE. BLUSTERY E-FLOW WITH GUSTS UP TO 35
KTS ALONG THE E-COAST. LLWS WITH 50-60 KT SE-JET 2 KFT AGL BEGINNING
AROUND MIDDAY.

TONIGHT...IFR-LIFR CONTINUING. -SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA. E/SE-WINDS
DIMINISHING. LLWS WITH A 50-60 KT SE-JET 2 KFT AGL INITIALLY...
LESSENING LATE 40-50 KTS PRIOR TO CONCLUDING.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR RATHER QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY BY
MIDDAY. COLD FRONT SWEEPING THE TERMINALS WITH WINDS SHIFTING
W/SW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR MARINE STRATUS MAY IMPACT THE
TERMINAL EARLIER THAN FORECAST.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUE NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR WITH MODEST SSW WINDS. MAINLY
DRY TOO.

WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT INCREASES THE RISK FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. CONDITIONS MAY DIP TO MVFR IN TIMES OF SHOWERS.

THU AND FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED AFTERNOON /
EVENING SHOWER POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING AS WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
HEAVIER SHOWERS SPREAD W TO E ACROSS THE WATERS. LIKELY TO SEE
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE. INCREASING
E-FLOW WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER THE E/SE-WATERS WHERE CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHEST. SMALL- CRAFT ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF AN INTERMITTENT GALE- FORCE GUST. SEAS BUILDING UP AROUND 10 TO
12 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH THE PERIOD W TO E. WINDS
DIMINISH ALLOWING SEAS TO BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AS RAINS WITH CHANCE
THUNDERSTORMS PUSH E/NE. EXPECT SEAS INITIALLY AROUND 10 TO 12
FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. ANY VISIBILITY ISSUES TO LIFT.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING RATHER QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY BY
MIDDAY. COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE WATERS WITH WINDS SHIFTING W/SW.
WAVES CONTINUING TO DIMINISH DOWN TO AROUND 6 TO 8 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUE NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MODEST SSW WINDS. LEFTOVER SE SWELLS
CONTINUE.

WED/WED NIGHT...COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. MODEST SSW WIND SHIFT TO WNW.

THU AND FRI...
MODEST WNW WINDS AS LOW PRES MEANDERS OVER MAINE OR NEW BRUNSWICK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO TRACK STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS
EVENING...BEFORE HIGH TIDE OCCURS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST /AROUND 03Z/
AND EAST COAST /ABOUT 06Z/. THIS RESULTS IN WINDS BEGINNING TO
SLACKEN AS HIGH TIDE APPROACHES. ALSO SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE
SO DURATION OF ONSHORE WINDS IS LIMITED.

ESTOFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE ROBUST AND REALISTIC THAN ETSS WITH
SURGE VALUES 1.0-1.5 FT AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. SEAS ALSO BUILDING
TO 10-15 FT JUST OFFSHORE. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE
AREAS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND SPLASH OVER. THUS WILL CONTINUE
WITH A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THESE LOCATIONS DURING THIS
EVENING AND EARLY TUE MORNING HIGH TIDES.

WINDS DO NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE FOR A
MODERATE COASTAL FLOOD EVENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR MAZ020-021.
RI...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR RIZ002-004>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     255-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     251-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 201059
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
659 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
WITH EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH MILD TEMPS TUESDAY
MORNING GIVES WAY TO A DRYING TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT WED WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY MUCH
COOLER WEATHER THU INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

7 AM UPDATE...

A NARROW BAND OF RAIN HAS DEVELOPED FROM NORTHWEST MA INTO EASTERN
CT AND IS MOVING STEADILY NORTHEAST. THIS BAND OF RAIN HAS FORMED
ON THE NOSE OF THE MID LEVEL JET. RADAR APPEARS MORE THREATENING
THAN REALITY AS DUAL POL CC PRODUCT CONFIRMING BRIGHT BANDING
TAKING PLACE. THUS MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IN THIS BAND. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION A FEW SNOW FLAKES MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE GIVEN COLD WET
BULB TEMPS. RAIN WILL BE SHORT LIVED INITALLY GIVEN BREAK ON RADAR
BUT AREA WILL FILL IN AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES AS STRENGTHENING
LOW AND MID LEVEL JET PROVIDE ABUNDANT THERMAL AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION.

ONLY CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO ADJUST HOURLY POPS TO
BETTER REFLECT RADAR TRENDS AND MODIFY HOURLY TEMPS TO MATCH UP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===================================================================

LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WARM FRONT LIFTING NE ACROSS THE REGION COLLOCATED
WITH SYNOPTIC-FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE
BROUGHT N BY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SE-FLOW. ANOMALOUS PWATS NEARLY
1.5-INCHES /+2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE-NORMAL FOR THE MONTH OF
APRIL/. WILL SEE LIGHT RAIN SPREAD ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
MORNING BECOMING HEAVIER BY MIDDAY CONTINUING INTO EARLY EVENING
AS THE CONVERGENT NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND DEEP-LAYER
MOISTURE COMBINE ALONG THE WARM-FRONT ALOFT. EXPECTATION OF A
BROAD SWATH OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLE
CONVECTION DISCUSSED BELOW.

THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LATE DAY INTO EARLY EVENING CONVECTION
AS AN ELEVATED CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT LIFTS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG PUNCH OF WARM-MOIST AIR ALOFT.
CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS NOTEWORTHY WITH NEGATIVE SHOWALTERS AND DECENT
TOTAL-TOTALS AND K-INDICES. FORECAST SOLUTIONS VARY AS TO HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AND THAT ANY INSTABILITY IS ELEVATED AND NOT
SURFACE-BASED. ALSO AWARE OF DECENT TURNING WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. NEVERTHELESS AN EVALUATION OF CIPS ANALOGS...AND
NOTING THE E/SE-ONSHORE FLOW WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN A STABLE LOW-
LEVEL PROFILE AS BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE WITH
RESPECT TO A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THUNDER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
BUT INGREDIENTS HAVE TO BE JUST RIGHT TO GET SEVERE OUTCOMES. CIPS
ANALOGS AGREE ON BULK OF SEVERE WEATHER THREATS TO OUR SW. CAN NOT
RULE OUT SMALL HAIL...AND WITH ANY HEAVY RAIN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIP-DRAG TO BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE SURFACE. BUT AGAIN THINK
THERE IS A LOW-RISK AND THUS HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE. WILL STILL MONITOR
FOR THE POTENTIAL. SEE MORE ON THINKING WITH RESPECT TO FLOODING
FURTHER DOWN IN THE DISCUSSION.

A CHILLY DAMP DAY. EXPECTING LOW-CLOUDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES FOR
SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY WITH HEAVY RAIN BUT COULD ALSO SEE MARINE
IMPACTS WITH PROLONGED ONSHORE E/SE-FLOW. SUCH FLOW YIELDING COOLER
THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS AROUND THE UPPER-40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
OVERNIGHT INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY...

A LULL IS EXPECTED INITIALLY WITH A WARM-SECTOR DRY-SLOT FOLLOWING
THE ELEVATED PUNCH OF WARM-MOIST AIR COLLOCATED WITH THE WARM FRONT
ALOFT. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...MOISTURE RETURNS WITHIN THE
CONTINUED CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT BENEATH DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN RENEWED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THUNDER
CHANCES. ECHO THE CONVECTION DISCUSSION OF PRIOR OF LOW RISK / LOW
CONFIDENCE SEVERE WEATHER. HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS REMAIN
POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY CONCLUDES DURING THE MORNING HOURS PRIOR TO THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION.

BY THIS POINT STORM-TOTAL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 1.0- TO
1.5-INCH RANGE. CONSIDERING MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY TAKING PLACE WITHIN
A 12- TO 18-HOUR PERIOD...AND THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW WITHIN H85-3...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE CONCERNING WIDESPREAD FLOODING. NUISANCE POOR-
DRAINAGE FLOODING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND CONVECTION ARE ANTICIPATED. COULD SEE SHORT-DURATION
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT OVERALL SREF PROBABILITIES REMAIN
LOW FOR 1-INCH OF PRECIPITATION WITHIN 12-HOURS. 1-HOUR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE IS AROUND 1.75-INCHES. MMEFS SUGGESTS THAT WITH
ANTICIPATED RAINFALL THE CT-RIVER MAY REMAIN SWOLLEN FOR SLIGHTLY
LONGER.

TUESDAY MIDDAY TOWARDS EVENING...

COLD AIR ADVECTION PROCEEDING ALLOWING FOR STEEP LAPSE RATES ON UP
TO H7. EXPECTING TO BREAK OUT ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE DRY-SLOT REGION
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUNSHINE TO WARM TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 70-
DEGREES. SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION COULD
DEVELOP. BUT THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE BEING SO DRY AS INDICATED BY
THE NEGATIVE K-INDEX VALUES LEADS TO A QUIET WEATHER PERIOD TO CLOSE
OUT THE EARLY-WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* PRECIP - GREATEST RISK FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WED AND WED NGT
* TEMPS - MILD WED THEN COOLER THAN NORMAL THURSDAY THRU SUN

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WED/THU BECOMES
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR OUR AREA THIS PERIOD. BY FRI MID LEVEL
LOW DRIFTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THEN EAST OF THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND
BUT STILL CLOSE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST SOME IMPACT. DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THU THEN GFS AND ITS
ENSEMBLES GEFS TRACK MID LEVEL LOW FARTHER NORTH INTO QUEBEC.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF/UKMET AND ECENS DIG MID LEVEL LOW FARTHER SOUTH
INTO NEW ENGLAND FRI THEN SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA SAT. GIVEN THE
EVOLVING BLOCKY PATTERN AND SUPPORT FROM -NAO/AO AND EPO
TELECONNECTIONS WE WILL FAVOR THE MORE AMPLIFIED AND SUPPRESSED
EC/UKMET AND ECENS SOLUTION THIS PERIOD. THIS FLOW REGIME WILL
SUPPORT TEMPS COOLER THAN NORMAL THURSDAY THRU SUNDAY ALONG WITH
GREATEST RISK FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WED/WED NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
IMPRESSIVE COLD FRONT.

DAILY DETAILS...

WED...SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE BUT GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON QPF FOR A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS WED INTO WED NIGHT AS FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE AND
ATTENDING COLD FRONT SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA. STILL MILD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH MULTI MODEL 2M TEMPS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON HIGHS 60-65!
ENJOY AS PATTERN CHANGE WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER WEATHER THU/FRI
AND THIS WEEKEND.

THURSDAY AND FRI...MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
BEGINS TO DRIFT TOWARD AND OVER NEW ENGLAND BY FRI. LOWER HEIGHTS
ALOFT CORRESPONDS TO COLDER TEMPS AT THE SURFACE. THUS BIG COOL DOWN
THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS ONLY 50-55...POSSIBLY ONLY U40S HIGH TERRAIN
WELL INLAND. 850 MB TEMP ANOMALY INDICATES TEMPS ABOUT -1 STANDARD
DEVIATION BELOW CLIMO. MAINLY DRY BUT CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING SHOWER.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY EXITS NORTH AND
EAST OF THE REGION. THUS TEMPS WARM SOMEWHAT ALOFT AND LOWERS THE
RISK FOR AFTN/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

7 AM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 06Z TAFS. BAND OF RAIN ENTERING WESTERN MA
ENTERS EASTERN MA INCLUDING BOSTON 8 AM TO 9 AM. THEN A LULL IN
ACTIVITY BEFORE FILLING BACK IN WITH MORE RAIN LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
==================================================================

TODAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO IFR-LIFR. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED +RA. CHANCE TSRA LATE. BLUSTERY E-FLOW WITH GUSTS UP TO 35
KTS ALONG THE E-COAST. LLWS WITH 50-60 KT SE-JET 2 KFT AGL BEGINNING
AROUND MIDDAY.

TONIGHT...IFR-LIFR CONTINUING. -SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA. E/SE-WINDS
DIMINISHING. LLWS WITH A 50-60 KT SE-JET 2 KFT AGL INITIALLY...
LESSENING LATE 40-50 KTS PRIOR TO CONCLUDING.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR RATHER QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY BY
MIDDAY. COLD FRONT SWEEPING THE TERMINALS WITH WINDS SHIFTING
W/SW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR MARINE STRATUS MAY IMPACT THE
TERMINAL EARLIER THAN FORECAST.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUE NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR WITH MODEST SSW WINDS. MAINLY
DRY TOO.

WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT INCREASES THE RISK FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. CONDITIONS MAY DIP TO MVFR IN TIMES OF SHOWERS.

THU AND FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED AFTERNOON /
EVENING SHOWER POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING AS WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
HEAVIER SHOWERS SPREAD W TO E ACROSS THE WATERS. LIKELY TO SEE
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE. INCREASING
E-FLOW WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER THE E/SE-WATERS WHERE CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHEST. SMALL- CRAFT ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF AN INTERMITTENT GALE- FORCE GUST. SEAS BUILDING UP AROUND 10 TO
12 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH THE PERIOD W TO E. WINDS
DIMINISH ALLOWING SEAS TO BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AS RAINS WITH CHANCE
THUNDERSTORMS PUSH E/NE. EXPECT SEAS INITIALLY AROUND 10 TO 12
FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. ANY VISIBILITY ISSUES TO LIFT.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING RATHER QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY BY
MIDDAY. COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE WATERS WITH WINDS SHIFTING W/SW.
WAVES CONTINUING TO DIMINISH DOWN TO AROUND 6 TO 8 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUE NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MODEST SSW WINDS. LEFTOVER SE SWELLS
CONTINUE.

WED/WED NIGHT...COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. MODEST SSW WIND SHIFT TO WNW.

THU AND FRI...
MODEST WNW WINDS AS LOW PRES MEANDERS OVER MAINE OR NEW BRUNSWICK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO TRACK STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS
EVENING...BEFORE HIGH TIDE OCCURS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST /AROUND 03Z/
AND EAST COAST /ABOUT 06Z/. THIS RESULTS IN WINDS BEGINNING TO
SLACKEN AS HIGH TIDE APPROACHES. ALSO SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE
SO DURATION OF ONSHORE WINDS IS LIMITED.

ESTOFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE ROBUST AND REALISTIC THAN ETSS WITH
SURGE VALUES 1.0-1.5 FT AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. SEAS ALSO BUILDING
TO 10-15 FT JUST OFFSHORE. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE
AREAS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND SPLASH OVER. THUS WILL CONTINUE
WITH A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THESE LOCATIONS DURING THIS
EVENING AND EARLY TUE MORNING HIGH TIDES.

WINDS DO NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE FOR A
MODERATE COASTAL FLOOD EVENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR MAZ020-021.
RI...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR RIZ002-004>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     255-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     251-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 200816
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
416 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
WITH EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH MILD TEMPS TUESDAY
MORNING GIVES WAY TO A DRYING TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT WED WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY MUCH
COOLER WEATHER THU INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL EARLY EVENING/...

LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WARM FRONT LIFTING NE ACROSS THE REGION COLLOCATED
WITH SYNOPTIC-FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE BROUGHT
N BY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SE-FLOW. ANOMALOUS PWATS NEARLY 1.5-INCHES /+2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE-NORMAL FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL/. WILL SEE
LIGHT RAIN SPREAD ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MORNING BECOMING
HEAVIER BY MIDDAY CONTINUING INTO EARLY EVENING AS THE CONVERGENT
NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE COMBINE ALONG THE
WARM-FRONT ALOFT. EXPECTATION OF A BROAD SWATH OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
HEAVIER SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLE CONVECTION DISCUSSED BELOW.

THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LATE DAY INTO EARLY EVENING CONVECTION
AS AN ELEVATED CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT LIFTS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG PUNCH OF WARM-MOIST AIR ALOFT.
CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS NOTEWORTHY WITH NEGATIVE SHOWALTERS AND DECENT
TOTAL-TOTALS AND K-INDICES. FORECAST SOLUTIONS VARY AS TO HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AND THAT ANY INSTABILITY IS ELEVATED AND NOT
SURFACE-BASED. ALSO AWARE OF DECENT TURNING WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. NEVERTHELESS AN EVALUATION OF CIPS ANALOGS...AND
NOTING THE E/SE-ONSHORE FLOW WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN A STABLE LOW-
LEVEL PROFILE AS BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE WITH
RESPECT TO A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THUNDER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
BUT INGREDIENTS HAVE TO BE JUST RIGHT TO GET SEVERE OUTCOMES. CIPS
ANALOGS AGREE ON BULK OF SEVERE WEATHER THREATS TO OUR SW. CAN NOT
RULE OUT SMALL HAIL...AND WITH ANY HEAVY RAIN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIP-DRAG TO BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE SURFACE. BUT AGAIN THINK
THERE IS A LOW-RISK AND THUS HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE. WILL STILL MONITOR
FOR THE POTENTIAL. SEE MORE ON THINKING WITH RESPECT TO FLOODING
FURTHER DOWN IN THE DISCUSSION.

A CHILLY DAMP DAY. EXPECTING LOW-CLOUDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES FOR
SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY WITH HEAVY RAIN BUT COULD ALSO SEE MARINE
IMPACTS WITH PROLONGED ONSHORE E/SE-FLOW. SUCH FLOW YIELDING COOLER
THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS AROUND THE UPPER-40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

OVERNIGHT INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY...

A LULL IS EXPECTED INITIALLY WITH A WARM-SECTOR DRY-SLOT FOLLOWING
THE ELEVATED PUNCH OF WARM-MOIST AIR COLLOCATED WITH THE WARM FRONT
ALOFT. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...MOISTURE RETURNS WITHIN THE
CONTINUED CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT BENEATH DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN RENEWED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THUNDER
CHANCES. ECHO THE CONVECTION DISCUSSION OF PRIOR OF LOW RISK / LOW
CONFIDENCE SEVERE WEATHER. HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS REMAIN
POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY CONCLUDES DURING THE MORNING HOURS PRIOR TO THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION.

BY THIS POINT STORM-TOTAL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 1.0- TO
1.5-INCH RANGE. CONSIDERING MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY TAKING PLACE WITHIN
A 12- TO 18-HOUR PERIOD...AND THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW WITHIN H85-3...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE CONCERNING WIDESPREAD FLOODING. NUISANCE POOR-
DRAINAGE FLOODING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND CONVECTION ARE ANTICIPATED. COULD SEE SHORT-DURATION
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT OVERALL SREF PROBABILITIES REMAIN
LOW FOR 1-INCH OF PRECIPITATION WITHIN 12-HOURS. 1-HOUR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE IS AROUND 1.75-INCHES. MMEFS SUGGESTS THAT WITH
ANTICIPATED RAINFALL THE CT-RIVER MAY REMAIN SWOLLEN FOR SLIGHTLY
LONGER.

TUESDAY MIDDAY TOWARDS EVENING...

COLD AIR ADVECTION PROCEEDING ALLOWING FOR STEEP LAPSE RATES ON UP
TO H7. EXPECTING TO BREAK OUT ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE DRY-SLOT REGION
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUNSHINE TO WARM TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 70-
DEGREES. SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION COULD
DEVELOP. BUT THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE BEING SO DRY AS INDICATED BY
THE NEGATIVE K-INDEX VALUES LEADS TO A QUIET WEATHER PERIOD TO CLOSE
OUT THE EARLY-WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* PRECIP - GREATEST RISK FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WED AND WED NGT
* TEMPS - MILD WED THEN COOLER THAN NORMAL THURSDAY THRU SUN

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WED/THU BECOMES
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR OUR AREA THIS PERIOD. BY FRI MID LEVEL
LOW DRIFTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THEN EAST OF THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND
BUT STILL CLOSE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST SOME IMPACT. DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THU THEN GFS AND ITS
ENSEMBLES GEFS TRACK MID LEVEL LOW FARTHER NORTH INTO QUEBEC.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF/UKMET AND ECENS DIG MID LEVEL LOW FARTHER SOUTH
INTO NEW ENGLAND FRI THEN SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA SAT. GIVEN THE
EVOLVING BLOCKY PATTERN AND SUPPORT FROM -NAO/AO AND EPO
TELECONNECTIONS WE WILL FAVOR THE MORE AMPLIFIED AND SUPPRESSED
EC/UKMET AND ECENS SOLUTION THIS PERIOD. THIS FLOW REGIME WILL
SUPPORT TEMPS COOLER THAN NORMAL THURSDAY THRU SUNDAY ALONG WITH
GREATEST RISK FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WED/WED NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
IMPRESSIVE COLD FRONT.

DAILY DETAILS...

WED...SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE BUT GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON QPF FOR A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS WED INTO WED NIGHT AS FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE AND
ATTENDING COLD FRONT SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA. STILL MILD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH MULTI MODEL 2M TEMPS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON HIGHS 60-65!
ENJOY AS PATTERN CHANGE WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER WEATHER THU/FRI
AND THIS WEEKEND.

THURSDAY AND FRI...MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
BEGINS TO DRIFT TOWARD AND OVER NEW ENGLAND BY FRI. LOWER HEIGHTS
ALOFT CORRESPONDS TO COLDER TEMPS AT THE SURFACE. THUS BIG COOL DOWN
THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS ONLY 50-55...POSSIBLY ONLY U40S HIGH TERRAIN
WELL INLAND. 850 MB TEMP ANOMALY INDICATES TEMPS ABOUT -1 STANDARD
DEVIATION BELOW CLIMO. MAINLY DRY BUT CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING SHOWER.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY EXITS NORTH AND
EAST OF THE REGION. THUS TEMPS WARM SOMEWHAT ALOFT AND LOWERS THE
RISK FOR AFTN/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO IFR-LIFR. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED +RA. CHANCE TSRA LATE. BLUSTERY E-FLOW WITH GUSTS UP TO 35
KTS ALONG THE E-COAST. LLWS WITH 50-60 KT SE-JET 2 KFT AGL BEGINNING
AROUND MIDDAY.

TONIGHT...IFR-LIFR CONTINUING. -SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA. E/SE-WINDS
DIMINISHING. LLWS WITH A 50-60 KT SE-JET 2 KFT AGL INITIALLY...
LESSENING LATE 40-50 KTS PRIOR TO CONCLUDING.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR RATHER QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY BY
MIDDAY. COLD FRONT SWEEPING THE TERMINALS WITH WINDS SHIFTING
W/SW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR MARINE STRATUS MAY IMPACT THE
TERMINAL EARLIER THAN FORECAST.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUE NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR WITH MODEST SSW WINDS. MAINLY
DRY TOO.

WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT INCREASES THE RISK FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. CONDITIONS MAY DIP TO MVFR IN TIMES OF SHOWERS.

THU AND FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED AFTERNOON /
EVENING SHOWER POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING AS WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
HEAVIER SHOWERS SPREAD W TO E ACROSS THE WATERS. LIKELY TO SEE
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE. INCREASING
E-FLOW WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER THE E/SE-WATERS WHERE CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHEST. SMALL- CRAFT ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF AN INTERMITTENT GALE- FORCE GUST. SEAS BUILDING UP AROUND 10 TO
12 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH THE PERIOD W TO E. WINDS
DIMINISH ALLOWING SEAS TO BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AS RAINS WITH CHANCE
THUNDERSTORMS PUSH E/NE. EXPECT SEAS INITIALLY AROUND 10 TO 12
FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. ANY VISIBILITY ISSUES TO LIFT.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING RATHER QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY BY
MIDDAY. COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE WATERS WITH WINDS SHIFTING W/SW.
WAVES CONTINUING TO DIMINISH DOWN TO AROUND 6 TO 8 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUE NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MODEST SSW WINDS. LEFTOVER SE SWELLS
CONTINUE.

WED/WED NIGHT...COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. MODEST SSW WIND SHIFT TO WNW.

THU AND FRI...
MODEST WNW WINDS AS LOW PRES MEANDERS OVER MAINE OR NEW BRUNSWICK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO TRACK STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS
EVENING...BEFORE HIGH TIDE OCCURS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST /AROUND 03Z/
AND EAST COAST /ABOUT 06Z/. THIS RESULTS IN WINDS BEGINNING TO
SLACKEN AS HIGH TIDE APPROACHES. ALSO SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE
SO DURATION OF ONSHORE WINDS IS LIMITED.

ESTOFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE ROBUST AND REALISTIC THAN ETSS WITH
SURGE VALUES 1.0-1.5 FT AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. SEAS ALSO BUILDING
TO 10-15 FT JUST OFFSHORE. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE
AREAS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND SPLASH OVER. THUS WILL CONTINUE
WITH A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THESE LOCATIONS DURING THIS
EVENING AND EARLY TUE MORNING HIGH TIDES.

WINDS DO NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE FOR A
MODERATE COASTAL FLOOD EVENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR MAZ020-021.
RI...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR RIZ002-004>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     255-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     251-254.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...WFO BOX STAFF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 200816
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
416 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
WITH EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH MILD TEMPS TUESDAY
MORNING GIVES WAY TO A DRYING TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT WED WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY MUCH
COOLER WEATHER THU INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL EARLY EVENING/...

LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WARM FRONT LIFTING NE ACROSS THE REGION COLLOCATED
WITH SYNOPTIC-FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE BROUGHT
N BY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SE-FLOW. ANOMALOUS PWATS NEARLY 1.5-INCHES /+2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE-NORMAL FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL/. WILL SEE
LIGHT RAIN SPREAD ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MORNING BECOMING
HEAVIER BY MIDDAY CONTINUING INTO EARLY EVENING AS THE CONVERGENT
NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE COMBINE ALONG THE
WARM-FRONT ALOFT. EXPECTATION OF A BROAD SWATH OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
HEAVIER SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLE CONVECTION DISCUSSED BELOW.

THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LATE DAY INTO EARLY EVENING CONVECTION
AS AN ELEVATED CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT LIFTS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG PUNCH OF WARM-MOIST AIR ALOFT.
CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS NOTEWORTHY WITH NEGATIVE SHOWALTERS AND DECENT
TOTAL-TOTALS AND K-INDICES. FORECAST SOLUTIONS VARY AS TO HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AND THAT ANY INSTABILITY IS ELEVATED AND NOT
SURFACE-BASED. ALSO AWARE OF DECENT TURNING WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. NEVERTHELESS AN EVALUATION OF CIPS ANALOGS...AND
NOTING THE E/SE-ONSHORE FLOW WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN A STABLE LOW-
LEVEL PROFILE AS BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE WITH
RESPECT TO A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THUNDER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
BUT INGREDIENTS HAVE TO BE JUST RIGHT TO GET SEVERE OUTCOMES. CIPS
ANALOGS AGREE ON BULK OF SEVERE WEATHER THREATS TO OUR SW. CAN NOT
RULE OUT SMALL HAIL...AND WITH ANY HEAVY RAIN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIP-DRAG TO BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE SURFACE. BUT AGAIN THINK
THERE IS A LOW-RISK AND THUS HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE. WILL STILL MONITOR
FOR THE POTENTIAL. SEE MORE ON THINKING WITH RESPECT TO FLOODING
FURTHER DOWN IN THE DISCUSSION.

A CHILLY DAMP DAY. EXPECTING LOW-CLOUDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES FOR
SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY WITH HEAVY RAIN BUT COULD ALSO SEE MARINE
IMPACTS WITH PROLONGED ONSHORE E/SE-FLOW. SUCH FLOW YIELDING COOLER
THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS AROUND THE UPPER-40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

OVERNIGHT INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY...

A LULL IS EXPECTED INITIALLY WITH A WARM-SECTOR DRY-SLOT FOLLOWING
THE ELEVATED PUNCH OF WARM-MOIST AIR COLLOCATED WITH THE WARM FRONT
ALOFT. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...MOISTURE RETURNS WITHIN THE
CONTINUED CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT BENEATH DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN RENEWED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THUNDER
CHANCES. ECHO THE CONVECTION DISCUSSION OF PRIOR OF LOW RISK / LOW
CONFIDENCE SEVERE WEATHER. HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS REMAIN
POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY CONCLUDES DURING THE MORNING HOURS PRIOR TO THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION.

BY THIS POINT STORM-TOTAL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 1.0- TO
1.5-INCH RANGE. CONSIDERING MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY TAKING PLACE WITHIN
A 12- TO 18-HOUR PERIOD...AND THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW WITHIN H85-3...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE CONCERNING WIDESPREAD FLOODING. NUISANCE POOR-
DRAINAGE FLOODING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND CONVECTION ARE ANTICIPATED. COULD SEE SHORT-DURATION
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT OVERALL SREF PROBABILITIES REMAIN
LOW FOR 1-INCH OF PRECIPITATION WITHIN 12-HOURS. 1-HOUR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE IS AROUND 1.75-INCHES. MMEFS SUGGESTS THAT WITH
ANTICIPATED RAINFALL THE CT-RIVER MAY REMAIN SWOLLEN FOR SLIGHTLY
LONGER.

TUESDAY MIDDAY TOWARDS EVENING...

COLD AIR ADVECTION PROCEEDING ALLOWING FOR STEEP LAPSE RATES ON UP
TO H7. EXPECTING TO BREAK OUT ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE DRY-SLOT REGION
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUNSHINE TO WARM TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 70-
DEGREES. SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION COULD
DEVELOP. BUT THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE BEING SO DRY AS INDICATED BY
THE NEGATIVE K-INDEX VALUES LEADS TO A QUIET WEATHER PERIOD TO CLOSE
OUT THE EARLY-WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* PRECIP - GREATEST RISK FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WED AND WED NGT
* TEMPS - MILD WED THEN COOLER THAN NORMAL THURSDAY THRU SUN

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WED/THU BECOMES
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR OUR AREA THIS PERIOD. BY FRI MID LEVEL
LOW DRIFTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THEN EAST OF THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND
BUT STILL CLOSE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST SOME IMPACT. DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THU THEN GFS AND ITS
ENSEMBLES GEFS TRACK MID LEVEL LOW FARTHER NORTH INTO QUEBEC.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF/UKMET AND ECENS DIG MID LEVEL LOW FARTHER SOUTH
INTO NEW ENGLAND FRI THEN SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA SAT. GIVEN THE
EVOLVING BLOCKY PATTERN AND SUPPORT FROM -NAO/AO AND EPO
TELECONNECTIONS WE WILL FAVOR THE MORE AMPLIFIED AND SUPPRESSED
EC/UKMET AND ECENS SOLUTION THIS PERIOD. THIS FLOW REGIME WILL
SUPPORT TEMPS COOLER THAN NORMAL THURSDAY THRU SUNDAY ALONG WITH
GREATEST RISK FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WED/WED NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
IMPRESSIVE COLD FRONT.

DAILY DETAILS...

WED...SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE BUT GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON QPF FOR A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS WED INTO WED NIGHT AS FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE AND
ATTENDING COLD FRONT SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA. STILL MILD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH MULTI MODEL 2M TEMPS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON HIGHS 60-65!
ENJOY AS PATTERN CHANGE WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER WEATHER THU/FRI
AND THIS WEEKEND.

THURSDAY AND FRI...MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
BEGINS TO DRIFT TOWARD AND OVER NEW ENGLAND BY FRI. LOWER HEIGHTS
ALOFT CORRESPONDS TO COLDER TEMPS AT THE SURFACE. THUS BIG COOL DOWN
THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS ONLY 50-55...POSSIBLY ONLY U40S HIGH TERRAIN
WELL INLAND. 850 MB TEMP ANOMALY INDICATES TEMPS ABOUT -1 STANDARD
DEVIATION BELOW CLIMO. MAINLY DRY BUT CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING SHOWER.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY EXITS NORTH AND
EAST OF THE REGION. THUS TEMPS WARM SOMEWHAT ALOFT AND LOWERS THE
RISK FOR AFTN/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO IFR-LIFR. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED +RA. CHANCE TSRA LATE. BLUSTERY E-FLOW WITH GUSTS UP TO 35
KTS ALONG THE E-COAST. LLWS WITH 50-60 KT SE-JET 2 KFT AGL BEGINNING
AROUND MIDDAY.

TONIGHT...IFR-LIFR CONTINUING. -SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA. E/SE-WINDS
DIMINISHING. LLWS WITH A 50-60 KT SE-JET 2 KFT AGL INITIALLY...
LESSENING LATE 40-50 KTS PRIOR TO CONCLUDING.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR RATHER QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY BY
MIDDAY. COLD FRONT SWEEPING THE TERMINALS WITH WINDS SHIFTING
W/SW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR MARINE STRATUS MAY IMPACT THE
TERMINAL EARLIER THAN FORECAST.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUE NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR WITH MODEST SSW WINDS. MAINLY
DRY TOO.

WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT INCREASES THE RISK FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. CONDITIONS MAY DIP TO MVFR IN TIMES OF SHOWERS.

THU AND FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED AFTERNOON /
EVENING SHOWER POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING AS WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
HEAVIER SHOWERS SPREAD W TO E ACROSS THE WATERS. LIKELY TO SEE
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE. INCREASING
E-FLOW WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER THE E/SE-WATERS WHERE CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHEST. SMALL- CRAFT ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF AN INTERMITTENT GALE- FORCE GUST. SEAS BUILDING UP AROUND 10 TO
12 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH THE PERIOD W TO E. WINDS
DIMINISH ALLOWING SEAS TO BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AS RAINS WITH CHANCE
THUNDERSTORMS PUSH E/NE. EXPECT SEAS INITIALLY AROUND 10 TO 12
FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. ANY VISIBILITY ISSUES TO LIFT.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING RATHER QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY BY
MIDDAY. COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE WATERS WITH WINDS SHIFTING W/SW.
WAVES CONTINUING TO DIMINISH DOWN TO AROUND 6 TO 8 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUE NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MODEST SSW WINDS. LEFTOVER SE SWELLS
CONTINUE.

WED/WED NIGHT...COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. MODEST SSW WIND SHIFT TO WNW.

THU AND FRI...
MODEST WNW WINDS AS LOW PRES MEANDERS OVER MAINE OR NEW BRUNSWICK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO TRACK STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS
EVENING...BEFORE HIGH TIDE OCCURS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST /AROUND 03Z/
AND EAST COAST /ABOUT 06Z/. THIS RESULTS IN WINDS BEGINNING TO
SLACKEN AS HIGH TIDE APPROACHES. ALSO SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE
SO DURATION OF ONSHORE WINDS IS LIMITED.

ESTOFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE ROBUST AND REALISTIC THAN ETSS WITH
SURGE VALUES 1.0-1.5 FT AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. SEAS ALSO BUILDING
TO 10-15 FT JUST OFFSHORE. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE
AREAS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND SPLASH OVER. THUS WILL CONTINUE
WITH A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THESE LOCATIONS DURING THIS
EVENING AND EARLY TUE MORNING HIGH TIDES.

WINDS DO NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE FOR A
MODERATE COASTAL FLOOD EVENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR MAZ020-021.
RI...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR RIZ002-004>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     255-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     251-254.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...WFO BOX STAFF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 200816
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
416 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
WITH EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH MILD TEMPS TUESDAY
MORNING GIVES WAY TO A DRYING TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT WED WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY MUCH
COOLER WEATHER THU INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL EARLY EVENING/...

LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WARM FRONT LIFTING NE ACROSS THE REGION COLLOCATED
WITH SYNOPTIC-FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE BROUGHT
N BY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SE-FLOW. ANOMALOUS PWATS NEARLY 1.5-INCHES /+2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE-NORMAL FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL/. WILL SEE
LIGHT RAIN SPREAD ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MORNING BECOMING
HEAVIER BY MIDDAY CONTINUING INTO EARLY EVENING AS THE CONVERGENT
NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE COMBINE ALONG THE
WARM-FRONT ALOFT. EXPECTATION OF A BROAD SWATH OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
HEAVIER SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLE CONVECTION DISCUSSED BELOW.

THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LATE DAY INTO EARLY EVENING CONVECTION
AS AN ELEVATED CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT LIFTS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG PUNCH OF WARM-MOIST AIR ALOFT.
CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS NOTEWORTHY WITH NEGATIVE SHOWALTERS AND DECENT
TOTAL-TOTALS AND K-INDICES. FORECAST SOLUTIONS VARY AS TO HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AND THAT ANY INSTABILITY IS ELEVATED AND NOT
SURFACE-BASED. ALSO AWARE OF DECENT TURNING WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. NEVERTHELESS AN EVALUATION OF CIPS ANALOGS...AND
NOTING THE E/SE-ONSHORE FLOW WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN A STABLE LOW-
LEVEL PROFILE AS BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE WITH
RESPECT TO A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THUNDER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
BUT INGREDIENTS HAVE TO BE JUST RIGHT TO GET SEVERE OUTCOMES. CIPS
ANALOGS AGREE ON BULK OF SEVERE WEATHER THREATS TO OUR SW. CAN NOT
RULE OUT SMALL HAIL...AND WITH ANY HEAVY RAIN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIP-DRAG TO BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE SURFACE. BUT AGAIN THINK
THERE IS A LOW-RISK AND THUS HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE. WILL STILL MONITOR
FOR THE POTENTIAL. SEE MORE ON THINKING WITH RESPECT TO FLOODING
FURTHER DOWN IN THE DISCUSSION.

A CHILLY DAMP DAY. EXPECTING LOW-CLOUDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES FOR
SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY WITH HEAVY RAIN BUT COULD ALSO SEE MARINE
IMPACTS WITH PROLONGED ONSHORE E/SE-FLOW. SUCH FLOW YIELDING COOLER
THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS AROUND THE UPPER-40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

OVERNIGHT INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY...

A LULL IS EXPECTED INITIALLY WITH A WARM-SECTOR DRY-SLOT FOLLOWING
THE ELEVATED PUNCH OF WARM-MOIST AIR COLLOCATED WITH THE WARM FRONT
ALOFT. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...MOISTURE RETURNS WITHIN THE
CONTINUED CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT BENEATH DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN RENEWED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THUNDER
CHANCES. ECHO THE CONVECTION DISCUSSION OF PRIOR OF LOW RISK / LOW
CONFIDENCE SEVERE WEATHER. HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS REMAIN
POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY CONCLUDES DURING THE MORNING HOURS PRIOR TO THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION.

BY THIS POINT STORM-TOTAL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 1.0- TO
1.5-INCH RANGE. CONSIDERING MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY TAKING PLACE WITHIN
A 12- TO 18-HOUR PERIOD...AND THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW WITHIN H85-3...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE CONCERNING WIDESPREAD FLOODING. NUISANCE POOR-
DRAINAGE FLOODING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND CONVECTION ARE ANTICIPATED. COULD SEE SHORT-DURATION
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT OVERALL SREF PROBABILITIES REMAIN
LOW FOR 1-INCH OF PRECIPITATION WITHIN 12-HOURS. 1-HOUR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE IS AROUND 1.75-INCHES. MMEFS SUGGESTS THAT WITH
ANTICIPATED RAINFALL THE CT-RIVER MAY REMAIN SWOLLEN FOR SLIGHTLY
LONGER.

TUESDAY MIDDAY TOWARDS EVENING...

COLD AIR ADVECTION PROCEEDING ALLOWING FOR STEEP LAPSE RATES ON UP
TO H7. EXPECTING TO BREAK OUT ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE DRY-SLOT REGION
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUNSHINE TO WARM TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 70-
DEGREES. SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION COULD
DEVELOP. BUT THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE BEING SO DRY AS INDICATED BY
THE NEGATIVE K-INDEX VALUES LEADS TO A QUIET WEATHER PERIOD TO CLOSE
OUT THE EARLY-WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* PRECIP - GREATEST RISK FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WED AND WED NGT
* TEMPS - MILD WED THEN COOLER THAN NORMAL THURSDAY THRU SUN

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WED/THU BECOMES
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR OUR AREA THIS PERIOD. BY FRI MID LEVEL
LOW DRIFTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THEN EAST OF THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND
BUT STILL CLOSE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST SOME IMPACT. DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THU THEN GFS AND ITS
ENSEMBLES GEFS TRACK MID LEVEL LOW FARTHER NORTH INTO QUEBEC.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF/UKMET AND ECENS DIG MID LEVEL LOW FARTHER SOUTH
INTO NEW ENGLAND FRI THEN SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA SAT. GIVEN THE
EVOLVING BLOCKY PATTERN AND SUPPORT FROM -NAO/AO AND EPO
TELECONNECTIONS WE WILL FAVOR THE MORE AMPLIFIED AND SUPPRESSED
EC/UKMET AND ECENS SOLUTION THIS PERIOD. THIS FLOW REGIME WILL
SUPPORT TEMPS COOLER THAN NORMAL THURSDAY THRU SUNDAY ALONG WITH
GREATEST RISK FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WED/WED NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
IMPRESSIVE COLD FRONT.

DAILY DETAILS...

WED...SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE BUT GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON QPF FOR A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS WED INTO WED NIGHT AS FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE AND
ATTENDING COLD FRONT SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA. STILL MILD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH MULTI MODEL 2M TEMPS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON HIGHS 60-65!
ENJOY AS PATTERN CHANGE WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER WEATHER THU/FRI
AND THIS WEEKEND.

THURSDAY AND FRI...MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
BEGINS TO DRIFT TOWARD AND OVER NEW ENGLAND BY FRI. LOWER HEIGHTS
ALOFT CORRESPONDS TO COLDER TEMPS AT THE SURFACE. THUS BIG COOL DOWN
THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS ONLY 50-55...POSSIBLY ONLY U40S HIGH TERRAIN
WELL INLAND. 850 MB TEMP ANOMALY INDICATES TEMPS ABOUT -1 STANDARD
DEVIATION BELOW CLIMO. MAINLY DRY BUT CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING SHOWER.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY EXITS NORTH AND
EAST OF THE REGION. THUS TEMPS WARM SOMEWHAT ALOFT AND LOWERS THE
RISK FOR AFTN/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO IFR-LIFR. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED +RA. CHANCE TSRA LATE. BLUSTERY E-FLOW WITH GUSTS UP TO 35
KTS ALONG THE E-COAST. LLWS WITH 50-60 KT SE-JET 2 KFT AGL BEGINNING
AROUND MIDDAY.

TONIGHT...IFR-LIFR CONTINUING. -SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA. E/SE-WINDS
DIMINISHING. LLWS WITH A 50-60 KT SE-JET 2 KFT AGL INITIALLY...
LESSENING LATE 40-50 KTS PRIOR TO CONCLUDING.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR RATHER QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY BY
MIDDAY. COLD FRONT SWEEPING THE TERMINALS WITH WINDS SHIFTING
W/SW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR MARINE STRATUS MAY IMPACT THE
TERMINAL EARLIER THAN FORECAST.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUE NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR WITH MODEST SSW WINDS. MAINLY
DRY TOO.

WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT INCREASES THE RISK FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. CONDITIONS MAY DIP TO MVFR IN TIMES OF SHOWERS.

THU AND FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED AFTERNOON /
EVENING SHOWER POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING AS WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
HEAVIER SHOWERS SPREAD W TO E ACROSS THE WATERS. LIKELY TO SEE
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE. INCREASING
E-FLOW WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER THE E/SE-WATERS WHERE CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHEST. SMALL- CRAFT ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF AN INTERMITTENT GALE- FORCE GUST. SEAS BUILDING UP AROUND 10 TO
12 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH THE PERIOD W TO E. WINDS
DIMINISH ALLOWING SEAS TO BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AS RAINS WITH CHANCE
THUNDERSTORMS PUSH E/NE. EXPECT SEAS INITIALLY AROUND 10 TO 12
FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. ANY VISIBILITY ISSUES TO LIFT.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING RATHER QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY BY
MIDDAY. COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE WATERS WITH WINDS SHIFTING W/SW.
WAVES CONTINUING TO DIMINISH DOWN TO AROUND 6 TO 8 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUE NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MODEST SSW WINDS. LEFTOVER SE SWELLS
CONTINUE.

WED/WED NIGHT...COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. MODEST SSW WIND SHIFT TO WNW.

THU AND FRI...
MODEST WNW WINDS AS LOW PRES MEANDERS OVER MAINE OR NEW BRUNSWICK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO TRACK STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS
EVENING...BEFORE HIGH TIDE OCCURS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST /AROUND 03Z/
AND EAST COAST /ABOUT 06Z/. THIS RESULTS IN WINDS BEGINNING TO
SLACKEN AS HIGH TIDE APPROACHES. ALSO SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE
SO DURATION OF ONSHORE WINDS IS LIMITED.

ESTOFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE ROBUST AND REALISTIC THAN ETSS WITH
SURGE VALUES 1.0-1.5 FT AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. SEAS ALSO BUILDING
TO 10-15 FT JUST OFFSHORE. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE
AREAS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND SPLASH OVER. THUS WILL CONTINUE
WITH A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THESE LOCATIONS DURING THIS
EVENING AND EARLY TUE MORNING HIGH TIDES.

WINDS DO NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE FOR A
MODERATE COASTAL FLOOD EVENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR MAZ020-021.
RI...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR RIZ002-004>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     255-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     251-254.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...WFO BOX STAFF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 200816
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
416 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
WITH EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH MILD TEMPS TUESDAY
MORNING GIVES WAY TO A DRYING TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT WED WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY MUCH
COOLER WEATHER THU INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL EARLY EVENING/...

LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WARM FRONT LIFTING NE ACROSS THE REGION COLLOCATED
WITH SYNOPTIC-FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE BROUGHT
N BY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SE-FLOW. ANOMALOUS PWATS NEARLY 1.5-INCHES /+2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE-NORMAL FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL/. WILL SEE
LIGHT RAIN SPREAD ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MORNING BECOMING
HEAVIER BY MIDDAY CONTINUING INTO EARLY EVENING AS THE CONVERGENT
NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE COMBINE ALONG THE
WARM-FRONT ALOFT. EXPECTATION OF A BROAD SWATH OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
HEAVIER SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLE CONVECTION DISCUSSED BELOW.

THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LATE DAY INTO EARLY EVENING CONVECTION
AS AN ELEVATED CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT LIFTS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG PUNCH OF WARM-MOIST AIR ALOFT.
CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS NOTEWORTHY WITH NEGATIVE SHOWALTERS AND DECENT
TOTAL-TOTALS AND K-INDICES. FORECAST SOLUTIONS VARY AS TO HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AND THAT ANY INSTABILITY IS ELEVATED AND NOT
SURFACE-BASED. ALSO AWARE OF DECENT TURNING WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. NEVERTHELESS AN EVALUATION OF CIPS ANALOGS...AND
NOTING THE E/SE-ONSHORE FLOW WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN A STABLE LOW-
LEVEL PROFILE AS BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE WITH
RESPECT TO A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THUNDER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
BUT INGREDIENTS HAVE TO BE JUST RIGHT TO GET SEVERE OUTCOMES. CIPS
ANALOGS AGREE ON BULK OF SEVERE WEATHER THREATS TO OUR SW. CAN NOT
RULE OUT SMALL HAIL...AND WITH ANY HEAVY RAIN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIP-DRAG TO BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE SURFACE. BUT AGAIN THINK
THERE IS A LOW-RISK AND THUS HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE. WILL STILL MONITOR
FOR THE POTENTIAL. SEE MORE ON THINKING WITH RESPECT TO FLOODING
FURTHER DOWN IN THE DISCUSSION.

A CHILLY DAMP DAY. EXPECTING LOW-CLOUDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES FOR
SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY WITH HEAVY RAIN BUT COULD ALSO SEE MARINE
IMPACTS WITH PROLONGED ONSHORE E/SE-FLOW. SUCH FLOW YIELDING COOLER
THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS AROUND THE UPPER-40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

OVERNIGHT INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY...

A LULL IS EXPECTED INITIALLY WITH A WARM-SECTOR DRY-SLOT FOLLOWING
THE ELEVATED PUNCH OF WARM-MOIST AIR COLLOCATED WITH THE WARM FRONT
ALOFT. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...MOISTURE RETURNS WITHIN THE
CONTINUED CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT BENEATH DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN RENEWED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THUNDER
CHANCES. ECHO THE CONVECTION DISCUSSION OF PRIOR OF LOW RISK / LOW
CONFIDENCE SEVERE WEATHER. HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS REMAIN
POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY CONCLUDES DURING THE MORNING HOURS PRIOR TO THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION.

BY THIS POINT STORM-TOTAL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 1.0- TO
1.5-INCH RANGE. CONSIDERING MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY TAKING PLACE WITHIN
A 12- TO 18-HOUR PERIOD...AND THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW WITHIN H85-3...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE CONCERNING WIDESPREAD FLOODING. NUISANCE POOR-
DRAINAGE FLOODING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND CONVECTION ARE ANTICIPATED. COULD SEE SHORT-DURATION
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT OVERALL SREF PROBABILITIES REMAIN
LOW FOR 1-INCH OF PRECIPITATION WITHIN 12-HOURS. 1-HOUR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE IS AROUND 1.75-INCHES. MMEFS SUGGESTS THAT WITH
ANTICIPATED RAINFALL THE CT-RIVER MAY REMAIN SWOLLEN FOR SLIGHTLY
LONGER.

TUESDAY MIDDAY TOWARDS EVENING...

COLD AIR ADVECTION PROCEEDING ALLOWING FOR STEEP LAPSE RATES ON UP
TO H7. EXPECTING TO BREAK OUT ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE DRY-SLOT REGION
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUNSHINE TO WARM TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 70-
DEGREES. SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION COULD
DEVELOP. BUT THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE BEING SO DRY AS INDICATED BY
THE NEGATIVE K-INDEX VALUES LEADS TO A QUIET WEATHER PERIOD TO CLOSE
OUT THE EARLY-WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* PRECIP - GREATEST RISK FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WED AND WED NGT
* TEMPS - MILD WED THEN COOLER THAN NORMAL THURSDAY THRU SUN

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WED/THU BECOMES
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR OUR AREA THIS PERIOD. BY FRI MID LEVEL
LOW DRIFTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THEN EAST OF THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND
BUT STILL CLOSE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST SOME IMPACT. DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THU THEN GFS AND ITS
ENSEMBLES GEFS TRACK MID LEVEL LOW FARTHER NORTH INTO QUEBEC.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF/UKMET AND ECENS DIG MID LEVEL LOW FARTHER SOUTH
INTO NEW ENGLAND FRI THEN SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA SAT. GIVEN THE
EVOLVING BLOCKY PATTERN AND SUPPORT FROM -NAO/AO AND EPO
TELECONNECTIONS WE WILL FAVOR THE MORE AMPLIFIED AND SUPPRESSED
EC/UKMET AND ECENS SOLUTION THIS PERIOD. THIS FLOW REGIME WILL
SUPPORT TEMPS COOLER THAN NORMAL THURSDAY THRU SUNDAY ALONG WITH
GREATEST RISK FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WED/WED NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
IMPRESSIVE COLD FRONT.

DAILY DETAILS...

WED...SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE BUT GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON QPF FOR A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS WED INTO WED NIGHT AS FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE AND
ATTENDING COLD FRONT SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA. STILL MILD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH MULTI MODEL 2M TEMPS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON HIGHS 60-65!
ENJOY AS PATTERN CHANGE WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER WEATHER THU/FRI
AND THIS WEEKEND.

THURSDAY AND FRI...MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
BEGINS TO DRIFT TOWARD AND OVER NEW ENGLAND BY FRI. LOWER HEIGHTS
ALOFT CORRESPONDS TO COLDER TEMPS AT THE SURFACE. THUS BIG COOL DOWN
THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS ONLY 50-55...POSSIBLY ONLY U40S HIGH TERRAIN
WELL INLAND. 850 MB TEMP ANOMALY INDICATES TEMPS ABOUT -1 STANDARD
DEVIATION BELOW CLIMO. MAINLY DRY BUT CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING SHOWER.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY EXITS NORTH AND
EAST OF THE REGION. THUS TEMPS WARM SOMEWHAT ALOFT AND LOWERS THE
RISK FOR AFTN/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO IFR-LIFR. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED +RA. CHANCE TSRA LATE. BLUSTERY E-FLOW WITH GUSTS UP TO 35
KTS ALONG THE E-COAST. LLWS WITH 50-60 KT SE-JET 2 KFT AGL BEGINNING
AROUND MIDDAY.

TONIGHT...IFR-LIFR CONTINUING. -SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA. E/SE-WINDS
DIMINISHING. LLWS WITH A 50-60 KT SE-JET 2 KFT AGL INITIALLY...
LESSENING LATE 40-50 KTS PRIOR TO CONCLUDING.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR RATHER QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY BY
MIDDAY. COLD FRONT SWEEPING THE TERMINALS WITH WINDS SHIFTING
W/SW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR MARINE STRATUS MAY IMPACT THE
TERMINAL EARLIER THAN FORECAST.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUE NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR WITH MODEST SSW WINDS. MAINLY
DRY TOO.

WED...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT INCREASES THE RISK FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. CONDITIONS MAY DIP TO MVFR IN TIMES OF SHOWERS.

THU AND FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED AFTERNOON /
EVENING SHOWER POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TODAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING AS WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
HEAVIER SHOWERS SPREAD W TO E ACROSS THE WATERS. LIKELY TO SEE
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE. INCREASING
E-FLOW WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER THE E/SE-WATERS WHERE CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHEST. SMALL- CRAFT ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF AN INTERMITTENT GALE- FORCE GUST. SEAS BUILDING UP AROUND 10 TO
12 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH THE PERIOD W TO E. WINDS
DIMINISH ALLOWING SEAS TO BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AS RAINS WITH CHANCE
THUNDERSTORMS PUSH E/NE. EXPECT SEAS INITIALLY AROUND 10 TO 12
FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. ANY VISIBILITY ISSUES TO LIFT.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING RATHER QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY BY
MIDDAY. COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE WATERS WITH WINDS SHIFTING W/SW.
WAVES CONTINUING TO DIMINISH DOWN TO AROUND 6 TO 8 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUE NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MODEST SSW WINDS. LEFTOVER SE SWELLS
CONTINUE.

WED/WED NIGHT...COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. MODEST SSW WIND SHIFT TO WNW.

THU AND FRI...
MODEST WNW WINDS AS LOW PRES MEANDERS OVER MAINE OR NEW BRUNSWICK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO TRACK STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS
EVENING...BEFORE HIGH TIDE OCCURS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST /AROUND 03Z/
AND EAST COAST /ABOUT 06Z/. THIS RESULTS IN WINDS BEGINNING TO
SLACKEN AS HIGH TIDE APPROACHES. ALSO SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE
SO DURATION OF ONSHORE WINDS IS LIMITED.

ESTOFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE ROBUST AND REALISTIC THAN ETSS WITH
SURGE VALUES 1.0-1.5 FT AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. SEAS ALSO BUILDING
TO 10-15 FT JUST OFFSHORE. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE
AREAS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND SPLASH OVER. THUS WILL CONTINUE
WITH A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THESE LOCATIONS DURING THIS
EVENING AND EARLY TUE MORNING HIGH TIDES.

WINDS DO NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE FOR A
MODERATE COASTAL FLOOD EVENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR MAZ020-021.
RI...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR RIZ002-004>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     255-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-
     251-254.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...WFO BOX STAFF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 200222
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1022 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
MILD TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING GIVE WAY TO A DRYING TREND DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THEN MUCH COOLER WEATHER OVERSPREADS THE AREA MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH THE RISK OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

10 PM UPDATE...

AS THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED...SE-FLOW DEVELOPING ALONG
THE FAR N-PERIPHERY OF THE APPROACHING WARM-FRONT. WHETHER THIS
ADVECTS MARINE STRATUS / FOG AS SUGGESTED PER HIGH-RES HRRR/RAP
IS UNCERTAIN. RATHER NOT TAKE THE PLUNGE TILL SOME GROUND-TRUTH
IS OBTAINABLE...WHICH IS NOT THE CASE PER SATELLITE AS A RESULT
OF HIGH-CLOUD OBSCURING LOW-CLOUD. A LOT OF DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE
PER 0Z SOUNDING OUT OF CHATHAM. IF THE CHATHAM AWOS DROPS IN BOTH
CEILING AND VISIBILITY THEN WILL GO AHEAD AND PUT E/SE NEW ENGLAND
INTO THE SOUP. OTHERWISE A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS DOWN AROUND THE
UPPER-30S. RAINFALL HOLDING OFF TILL EARLY MORNING ACROSS SW CT
PER LATEST HRRR. DRY AIR PER LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE IS LIKELY
GOING TO AID IN LIMITING ONSET TO SOME DEGREE. INCREASING CLOUDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT LOWERING AND THICKENING AS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING
PROCEEDS.

OTHERWISE WATCHING TIDES. HIGH ASTRO TIDE EXPECTED AROUND 1240 AM
FOR BOSTON AT 12.1 FEET. MORRISSEY BOULEVARD USUALLY EXPERIENCES
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AT 12.5. SE-WINDS ARE LIGHT AS WAVES ARE 1
FOOT OR LESS. PERHAPS SOME SPLASHOVER ISSUES...EVEN DOWN S INTO
SCITUATE AND DUXBURY...OTHERWISE LITTLE IMPACT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

MONDAY...

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATING ACROSS THE EASTERN CANADIAN MARITIMES.  THIS WILL
GENERATE A CHILLY EAST WIND AT THE SURFACE WITH A SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL JET JUST OFF THE DECK.  THE RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD RAIN
WHICH WILL WORK ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. THE RAIN SHOULD
ARRIVE ACROSS WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT BETWEEN 7 AND 10 AM...REACHING
EASTERN MA/RI BETWEEN 10 AM AND 1 PM. THE RAIN WILL INITIALLY BE
LIGHT...BUT SHOULD PICKUP IN INTENSITY FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...BECOMING MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES.

IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY CHILLY WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO NEAR
50 MONDAY AFTERNOON.  IN ADDITION...INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN EASTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ALONG THE COAST.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO THE LOWER
40S!

MONDAY NIGHT...

WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND MOVE NEAR OR NORTHWEST
OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW RHODE ISLAND AND AT LEAST
SOUTHEAST MA TO WARM SECTOR...ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 50S.
LOW LEVEL JET OF 50 KNOTS COMBINED WITH PWATS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES
WILL ALLOW FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST PART
OF THE NIGHT.  IN ADDITION...SHOWALTER INDICES DROPPING BELOW ZERO
MAY RESULT IN A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS.  THE HIGHEST RISK OF ANY
CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS RHODE ISLAND/SOUTHEAST MA ON THE NOSE OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET...BUT ITS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH PWATS AND GOOD FORCING...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN MAY
RESULT IN TYPICAL NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING.
HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED AS WE ARE
ONLY LOOKING AT BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL.  THE ONE
AREA WE MAY HAVE TO WATCH IS ACROSS EASTERN CT/RI/SOUTHEAST MA.  A
FEW OF OUR MESOSCALE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR 2+
INCHES OF RAIN WITH PERHAPS SOME CONVECTION.  AGAIN THOUGH...THIS
REALLY LOOKS LIKE TYPICAL BRIEF NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE STREET
FLOODING EVENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* TUE...SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS THEN AN AFTERNOON DRYING TREND
* WED-SAT...COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS...MAINLY DIURNAL

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM PHASES WITH SOUTHERN PLAINS CUTOFF LOW
TODAY TO FORM AN ANOMALOUS LOW/VORTEX OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUE.
THEREAFTER THIS UPPER LOW WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE AS HIGH LATITUDE
BLOCKING DEVELOPS WITH POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY EVOLVING OVER THE
SOUTHERN DAVIS STRAIT. THIS RESULTS IN A VERY SLOW MOVING VORTEX
FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WED TO ONLY ADVANCING EASTWARD INTO
MAINE BY NEXT WEEKEND! WHILE THIS SEEMS EXTREME IT/S DOES HAVE
SUPPORT FROM TELECONNECTIONS AS AO/NAO AND EPO AS ALL THREE INDICES
GO NEGATIVE. GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE WILL WORK BEST AS A BASELINE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

DAILY DETAILS...

TUESDAY...TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
INSTABILITY ALOFT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ELEVATED THUNDER. IF NOT AT
THE VERY LEAST THIS INSTABILITY WILL ENHANCE SHOWER INTENSITY AND
ASSOCIATED DOWNPOURS. BY AFTERNOON DRY SLOT WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY
AROUND THE SYSTEM AND INTO THE REGION. SO SUSPECT WITH DEEPENING DRY
LAYER AND COLD ADVECTION TUE AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE A DRYING TREND
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. IN ADDITION...MILD START TO THE DAY COMBINED
WITH BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE POSSIBLE AND WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 60S.

WED AND THU...WHILE BOTH ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF MID LEVEL CLOSED
LOW...AS EXPECTED MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE AMPLITUDE AND
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES CIRCULATE AROUND THE VORTEX. THUS
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING SHOWER THREAT THIS PERIOD. TRENDING COOLER
AS MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT ADVECT EASTWARD INTO
THE REGION. COOLER THU THAN WED.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ECENS/EPS SUGGEST CORE OF COLD AIR ALOFT
SETTLES OVER THE AREA AS MID LEVEL LOW TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN NY
STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH 850 TEMPS COOLING TO -2C TO
-5C! RISK OF SHOWERS TOO GIVEN COLD AIR AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MIX WITH SOME SNOW
AT TIMES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN!

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

3Z UPDATE...

TONIGHT...CAUTION. HIGH-RES MODELS SUGGEST ONSHORE MARINE STRATUS
AND/OR FOG ACROSS E/SE NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS OVERNIGHT INTO
MORNING. NOT A LOT OF GROUND-TRUTH TO SUGGEST. MONITOR CLOSELY AND
THROW LOCALES INTO THE SOUP SHOULD CQX /CHATHAM/ GO IFR-LIFR.
OTHERWISE VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH UNCERTAIN IFR-
LIFR THREATS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO MVFR FROM
WEST TO EAST MONDAY MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON IN WIDESPREAD RAIN.
IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO
EAST...AS HEAVIER RAIN WORKS INTO THE REGION. THIS IN RESPONSE TO
WIDESPREAD RAIN WORKING IN FROM THE WEST. EASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO
GUST TO 30 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST BY AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY LOW END MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS. PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AS AT LEAST
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION PROBABLY ENTERS THE WARM SECTOR. A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...WITH THE HIGHEST
RISK ON THE SOUTH COAST NEAR THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET BUT
THEY ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WHILE SOUTHEAST WINDS
MAY GUST TO 30 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST...LLWS OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS
EXPECTED AT 2000 THOUSAND FEET WITH DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MONITORING CLOSELY AS TO WHETHER
IFR-LIFR MARINE STRATUS WILL BE AN ISSUE TOWARDS MORNING. OTHERWISE
CONTINUED CONFIDENCE OF MVFR TO IFR THROUGH MONDAY AS RAIN
ENVELOPS THE REGION BEGINNING AROUND 15Z.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH 11 OR 12Z MONDAY IN VFR
CONDITIONS. MVFR CONDITIONS IN SOME RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
TERMINAL BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUE INTO EARLY WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR EARLY TUE. ALTHOUGH LINGERING CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. THE VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO EARLY
WED W WINDS ON TUE GIVE WAY TO SW WINDS ON WED...WITH A FEW GUSTS
TO AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE.

WED EVENING INTO EARLY THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
COLD FRONT INCREASES THE RISK FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.
CONDITIONS MAY DIP TO MVFR/IFR AT TIMES DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

REST OF THU AND FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR.  CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
THROUGH AT LEAST 8 OR 9Z WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
PLACE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
PERSISTENT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS DEVELOP BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY EVENING.  WE HOISTED GALES
FOR OUR EASTERN OUTER-WATERS WITH BETTER MIXING EXPECTED AND HAVE
STRONG SCA POSTED ELSEWHERE.  HOWEVER...BRIEF SOUTHEAST GALE FORCE
WIND GUSTS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ANYWHERE MONDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IF
WE CAN GENERATE ANY CONVECTION.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET WITH LONG EASTERLY FETCH
ACROSS OUR EASTERN WATERS.  SHOWERS...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY
FOG WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES FOR MARINERS AT
TIMES.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUE AND WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
ALTHOUGH W-SW WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING DURING THE DAY ON
TUE...LINGERING LARGE SWELL OF 10+ FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS
EXPECTED. THIS SWELL REMAINS ABOVE THE 5 FT THRESHOLD ON WED AS
WELL. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUES.

THU AND FRI...
WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SW ON THU AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF MAINTAINING SWELLS ON S WATERS. WINDS BACK TO THE W
BY FRI. COULD SEE PERIOD GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT EACH AFTERNOON...SO
WITH THE LEFTOVER SEAS AND PERIODIC GUSTS...SOME SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

VERY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES OCCUR LATE THIS EVENING AND JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WHILE WE CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME VERY MINOR SPLASH OVER
DID NOT THINK IT WAS WORTH ANY HEADLINES. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AND NOT COINCIDE WITH THE HIGHEST ASTRONOMICAL
TIDE.  HOWEVER...THE HIGH TIDE WERE CONCERNED ABOUT OCCURS LATE
MONDAY EVENING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND VERY EARLY TUE MORNING
ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST.  WE PROBABLY ARE LOOKING AT A 1 TO 1.5
FOOT STORM SURGE ALONG WITH 10 TO 15 FOOT SEAS OFFSHORE.  THIS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND
SPLASH OVER.  THEREFORE...DECIDED TO HOIST A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THESE LOCATIONS DURING THEIR LATE MONDAY EVENING AND EARLY TUE
MORNING HIGH TIDES.  WINDS DO NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH AT THE TIME OF
HIGH TIDE FOR A MODERATE COASTAL FLOOD EVENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT TO 4 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MAZ020-021.
RI...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR RIZ002-004>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     GALE WARNING FROM NOON MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ250-251-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM MONDAY TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ255-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...WFO BOX STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 200222
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1022 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
MILD TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING GIVE WAY TO A DRYING TREND DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THEN MUCH COOLER WEATHER OVERSPREADS THE AREA MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH THE RISK OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

10 PM UPDATE...

AS THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED...SE-FLOW DEVELOPING ALONG
THE FAR N-PERIPHERY OF THE APPROACHING WARM-FRONT. WHETHER THIS
ADVECTS MARINE STRATUS / FOG AS SUGGESTED PER HIGH-RES HRRR/RAP
IS UNCERTAIN. RATHER NOT TAKE THE PLUNGE TILL SOME GROUND-TRUTH
IS OBTAINABLE...WHICH IS NOT THE CASE PER SATELLITE AS A RESULT
OF HIGH-CLOUD OBSCURING LOW-CLOUD. A LOT OF DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE
PER 0Z SOUNDING OUT OF CHATHAM. IF THE CHATHAM AWOS DROPS IN BOTH
CEILING AND VISIBILITY THEN WILL GO AHEAD AND PUT E/SE NEW ENGLAND
INTO THE SOUP. OTHERWISE A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS DOWN AROUND THE
UPPER-30S. RAINFALL HOLDING OFF TILL EARLY MORNING ACROSS SW CT
PER LATEST HRRR. DRY AIR PER LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE IS LIKELY
GOING TO AID IN LIMITING ONSET TO SOME DEGREE. INCREASING CLOUDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT LOWERING AND THICKENING AS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING
PROCEEDS.

OTHERWISE WATCHING TIDES. HIGH ASTRO TIDE EXPECTED AROUND 1240 AM
FOR BOSTON AT 12.1 FEET. MORRISSEY BOULEVARD USUALLY EXPERIENCES
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AT 12.5. SE-WINDS ARE LIGHT AS WAVES ARE 1
FOOT OR LESS. PERHAPS SOME SPLASHOVER ISSUES...EVEN DOWN S INTO
SCITUATE AND DUXBURY...OTHERWISE LITTLE IMPACT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

MONDAY...

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATING ACROSS THE EASTERN CANADIAN MARITIMES.  THIS WILL
GENERATE A CHILLY EAST WIND AT THE SURFACE WITH A SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL JET JUST OFF THE DECK.  THE RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD RAIN
WHICH WILL WORK ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. THE RAIN SHOULD
ARRIVE ACROSS WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT BETWEEN 7 AND 10 AM...REACHING
EASTERN MA/RI BETWEEN 10 AM AND 1 PM. THE RAIN WILL INITIALLY BE
LIGHT...BUT SHOULD PICKUP IN INTENSITY FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...BECOMING MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES.

IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY CHILLY WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO NEAR
50 MONDAY AFTERNOON.  IN ADDITION...INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN EASTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ALONG THE COAST.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO THE LOWER
40S!

MONDAY NIGHT...

WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND MOVE NEAR OR NORTHWEST
OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW RHODE ISLAND AND AT LEAST
SOUTHEAST MA TO WARM SECTOR...ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 50S.
LOW LEVEL JET OF 50 KNOTS COMBINED WITH PWATS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES
WILL ALLOW FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST PART
OF THE NIGHT.  IN ADDITION...SHOWALTER INDICES DROPPING BELOW ZERO
MAY RESULT IN A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS.  THE HIGHEST RISK OF ANY
CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS RHODE ISLAND/SOUTHEAST MA ON THE NOSE OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET...BUT ITS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH PWATS AND GOOD FORCING...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN MAY
RESULT IN TYPICAL NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING.
HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED AS WE ARE
ONLY LOOKING AT BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL.  THE ONE
AREA WE MAY HAVE TO WATCH IS ACROSS EASTERN CT/RI/SOUTHEAST MA.  A
FEW OF OUR MESOSCALE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR 2+
INCHES OF RAIN WITH PERHAPS SOME CONVECTION.  AGAIN THOUGH...THIS
REALLY LOOKS LIKE TYPICAL BRIEF NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE STREET
FLOODING EVENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* TUE...SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS THEN AN AFTERNOON DRYING TREND
* WED-SAT...COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS...MAINLY DIURNAL

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM PHASES WITH SOUTHERN PLAINS CUTOFF LOW
TODAY TO FORM AN ANOMALOUS LOW/VORTEX OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUE.
THEREAFTER THIS UPPER LOW WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE AS HIGH LATITUDE
BLOCKING DEVELOPS WITH POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY EVOLVING OVER THE
SOUTHERN DAVIS STRAIT. THIS RESULTS IN A VERY SLOW MOVING VORTEX
FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WED TO ONLY ADVANCING EASTWARD INTO
MAINE BY NEXT WEEKEND! WHILE THIS SEEMS EXTREME IT/S DOES HAVE
SUPPORT FROM TELECONNECTIONS AS AO/NAO AND EPO AS ALL THREE INDICES
GO NEGATIVE. GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE WILL WORK BEST AS A BASELINE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

DAILY DETAILS...

TUESDAY...TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
INSTABILITY ALOFT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ELEVATED THUNDER. IF NOT AT
THE VERY LEAST THIS INSTABILITY WILL ENHANCE SHOWER INTENSITY AND
ASSOCIATED DOWNPOURS. BY AFTERNOON DRY SLOT WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY
AROUND THE SYSTEM AND INTO THE REGION. SO SUSPECT WITH DEEPENING DRY
LAYER AND COLD ADVECTION TUE AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE A DRYING TREND
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. IN ADDITION...MILD START TO THE DAY COMBINED
WITH BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE POSSIBLE AND WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 60S.

WED AND THU...WHILE BOTH ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF MID LEVEL CLOSED
LOW...AS EXPECTED MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE AMPLITUDE AND
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES CIRCULATE AROUND THE VORTEX. THUS
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING SHOWER THREAT THIS PERIOD. TRENDING COOLER
AS MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT ADVECT EASTWARD INTO
THE REGION. COOLER THU THAN WED.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ECENS/EPS SUGGEST CORE OF COLD AIR ALOFT
SETTLES OVER THE AREA AS MID LEVEL LOW TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN NY
STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH 850 TEMPS COOLING TO -2C TO
-5C! RISK OF SHOWERS TOO GIVEN COLD AIR AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MIX WITH SOME SNOW
AT TIMES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN!

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

3Z UPDATE...

TONIGHT...CAUTION. HIGH-RES MODELS SUGGEST ONSHORE MARINE STRATUS
AND/OR FOG ACROSS E/SE NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS OVERNIGHT INTO
MORNING. NOT A LOT OF GROUND-TRUTH TO SUGGEST. MONITOR CLOSELY AND
THROW LOCALES INTO THE SOUP SHOULD CQX /CHATHAM/ GO IFR-LIFR.
OTHERWISE VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH UNCERTAIN IFR-
LIFR THREATS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO MVFR FROM
WEST TO EAST MONDAY MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON IN WIDESPREAD RAIN.
IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO
EAST...AS HEAVIER RAIN WORKS INTO THE REGION. THIS IN RESPONSE TO
WIDESPREAD RAIN WORKING IN FROM THE WEST. EASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO
GUST TO 30 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST BY AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY LOW END MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS. PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AS AT LEAST
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION PROBABLY ENTERS THE WARM SECTOR. A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...WITH THE HIGHEST
RISK ON THE SOUTH COAST NEAR THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET BUT
THEY ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WHILE SOUTHEAST WINDS
MAY GUST TO 30 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST...LLWS OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS
EXPECTED AT 2000 THOUSAND FEET WITH DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MONITORING CLOSELY AS TO WHETHER
IFR-LIFR MARINE STRATUS WILL BE AN ISSUE TOWARDS MORNING. OTHERWISE
CONTINUED CONFIDENCE OF MVFR TO IFR THROUGH MONDAY AS RAIN
ENVELOPS THE REGION BEGINNING AROUND 15Z.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH 11 OR 12Z MONDAY IN VFR
CONDITIONS. MVFR CONDITIONS IN SOME RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
TERMINAL BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUE INTO EARLY WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR EARLY TUE. ALTHOUGH LINGERING CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. THE VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO EARLY
WED W WINDS ON TUE GIVE WAY TO SW WINDS ON WED...WITH A FEW GUSTS
TO AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE.

WED EVENING INTO EARLY THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
COLD FRONT INCREASES THE RISK FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.
CONDITIONS MAY DIP TO MVFR/IFR AT TIMES DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

REST OF THU AND FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR.  CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
THROUGH AT LEAST 8 OR 9Z WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
PLACE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
PERSISTENT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS DEVELOP BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY EVENING.  WE HOISTED GALES
FOR OUR EASTERN OUTER-WATERS WITH BETTER MIXING EXPECTED AND HAVE
STRONG SCA POSTED ELSEWHERE.  HOWEVER...BRIEF SOUTHEAST GALE FORCE
WIND GUSTS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ANYWHERE MONDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IF
WE CAN GENERATE ANY CONVECTION.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET WITH LONG EASTERLY FETCH
ACROSS OUR EASTERN WATERS.  SHOWERS...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY
FOG WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES FOR MARINERS AT
TIMES.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUE AND WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
ALTHOUGH W-SW WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING DURING THE DAY ON
TUE...LINGERING LARGE SWELL OF 10+ FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS
EXPECTED. THIS SWELL REMAINS ABOVE THE 5 FT THRESHOLD ON WED AS
WELL. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUES.

THU AND FRI...
WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SW ON THU AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF MAINTAINING SWELLS ON S WATERS. WINDS BACK TO THE W
BY FRI. COULD SEE PERIOD GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT EACH AFTERNOON...SO
WITH THE LEFTOVER SEAS AND PERIODIC GUSTS...SOME SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

VERY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES OCCUR LATE THIS EVENING AND JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WHILE WE CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME VERY MINOR SPLASH OVER
DID NOT THINK IT WAS WORTH ANY HEADLINES. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AND NOT COINCIDE WITH THE HIGHEST ASTRONOMICAL
TIDE.  HOWEVER...THE HIGH TIDE WERE CONCERNED ABOUT OCCURS LATE
MONDAY EVENING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND VERY EARLY TUE MORNING
ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST.  WE PROBABLY ARE LOOKING AT A 1 TO 1.5
FOOT STORM SURGE ALONG WITH 10 TO 15 FOOT SEAS OFFSHORE.  THIS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND
SPLASH OVER.  THEREFORE...DECIDED TO HOIST A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THESE LOCATIONS DURING THEIR LATE MONDAY EVENING AND EARLY TUE
MORNING HIGH TIDES.  WINDS DO NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH AT THE TIME OF
HIGH TIDE FOR A MODERATE COASTAL FLOOD EVENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT TO 4 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MAZ020-021.
RI...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR RIZ002-004>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     GALE WARNING FROM NOON MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ250-251-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM MONDAY TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ255-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...WFO BOX STAFF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 192323
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
723 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
MILD TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING GIVE WAY TO A DRYING TREND DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THEN MUCH COOLER WEATHER OVERSPREADS THE AREA MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH THE RISK OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...

GRADIENT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALREADY DEVELOPING ON THE FAR
NORTHERN PERIPHERY INFLUENCE OF A WARM FRONT. THIS FLOW HAS LED TO
ANOTHER WIDE SPREAD IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING TEMPERATURES MAINLY
OF COURSE DUE TO MARINE INFLUENCE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT EXPANDING
HIGH AND MID CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH WILL LIMIT
DIURNAL COOLING SOMEWHAT STILL EXPECT MINS A BIT COOLER THAN LAST
NIGHT GIVEN THE COOLER START AND BULK OF THE RAINFALL HOLDS OFF
UNTIL MAINLY 12Z AND AFTER. SPEAKING OF THIS RAINFALL...TIMING OF
POPS/WX LOOKS GOOD SO NO PLANNED CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPS AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH NOT
NEARLY AS EXTREME AS YESTERDAY.  LATE AFTERNOON READINGS RANGED FROM
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND LOWER 60S
IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY.  TEMP RANGE WILL BEGIN TO NARROW AFTER
SUNSET...AS THE DRY AIR IN PLACE ALLOWS THE INTERIOR TO BEGIN TO
RADIATE OUT.

HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL VERY SLOWLY SHIFT
EAST TONIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE MIDWEST. WHILE IT
WILL REMAIN DRY TONIGHT...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE WEST AND THICKEN AFTER MIDNIGHT.  LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATING ACROSS THE EASTERN CANADIAN MARITIMES.  THIS WILL
GENERATE A CHILLY EAST WIND AT THE SURFACE WITH A SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL JET JUST OFF THE DECK.  THE RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD RAIN
WHICH WILL WORK ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. THE RAIN SHOULD
ARRIVE ACROSS WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT BETWEEN 7 AND 10 AM...REACHING
EASTERN MA/RI BETWEEN 10 AM AND 1 PM. THE RAIN WILL INITIALLY BE
LIGHT...BUT SHOULD PICKUP IN INTENSITY FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...BECOMING MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES.

IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY CHILLY WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO NEAR
50 MONDAY AFTERNOON.  IN ADDITION...INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN EASTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ALONG THE COAST.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO THE LOWER
40S!

MONDAY NIGHT...

WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND MOVE NEAR OR NORTHWEST
OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW RHODE ISLAND AND AT LEAST
SOUTHEAST MA TO WARM SECTOR...ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 50S.
LOW LEVEL JET OF 50 KNOTS COMBINED WITH PWATS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES
WILL ALLOW FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST PART
OF THE NIGHT.  IN ADDITION...SHOWALTER INDICES DROPPING BELOW ZERO
MAY RESULT IN A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS.  THE HIGHEST RISK OF ANY
CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS RHODE ISLAND/SOUTHEAST MA ON THE NOSE OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET...BUT ITS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH PWATS AND GOOD FORCING...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN MAY
RESULT IN TYPICAL NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING.
HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED AS WE ARE
ONLY LOOKING AT BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL.  THE ONE
AREA WE MAY HAVE TO WATCH IS ACROSS EASTERN CT/RI/SOUTHEAST MA.  A
FEW OF OUR MESOSCALE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR 2+
INCHES OF RAIN WITH PERHAPS SOME CONVECTION.  AGAIN THOUGH...THIS
REALLY LOOKS LIKE TYPICAL BRIEF NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE STREET
FLOODING EVENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TUE...SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS THEN AN AFTERNOON DRYING TREND
* WED-SAT...COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS...MAINLY DIURNAL

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM PHASES WITH SOUTHERN PLAINS CUTOFF LOW
TODAY TO FORM AN ANOMALOUS LOW/VORTEX OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUE.
THEREAFTER THIS UPPER LOW WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE AS HIGH LATITUDE
BLOCKING DEVELOPS WITH POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY EVOLVING OVER THE
SOUTHERN DAVIS STRAIT. THIS RESULTS IN A VERY SLOW MOVING VORTEX
FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WED TO ONLY ADVANCING EASTWARD INTO
MAINE BY NEXT WEEKEND! WHILE THIS SEEMS EXTREME IT/S DOES HAVE
SUPPORT FROM TELECONNECTIONS AS AO/NAO AND EPO AS ALL THREE INDICES
GO NEGATIVE. GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE WILL WORK BEST AS A BASELINE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

DAILY DETAILS...

TUESDAY...TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
INSTABILITY ALOFT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ELEVATED THUNDER. IF NOT AT
THE VERY LEAST THIS INSTABILITY WILL ENHANCE SHOWER INTENSITY AND
ASSOCIATED DOWNPOURS. BY AFTERNOON DRY SLOT WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY
AROUND THE SYSTEM AND INTO THE REGION. SO SUSPECT WITH DEEPENING DRY
LAYER AND COLD ADVECTION TUE AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE A DRYING TREND
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. IN ADDITION...MILD START TO THE DAY COMBINED
WITH BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE POSSIBLE AND WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 60S.

WED AND THU...WHILE BOTH ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF MID LEVEL CLOSED
LOW...AS EXPECTED MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE AMPLITUDE AND
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES CIRCULATE AROUND THE VORTEX. THUS
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING SHOWER THREAT THIS PERIOD. TRENDING COOLER
AS MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT ADVECT EASTWARD INTO
THE REGION. COOLER THU THAN WED.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ECENS/EPS SUGGEST CORE OF COLD AIR ALOFT
SETTLES OVER THE AREA AS MID LEVEL LOW TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN NY
STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH 850 TEMPS COOLING TO -2C TO
-5C! RISK OF SHOWERS TOO GIVEN COLD AIR AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MIX WITH SOME SNOW
AT TIMES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN!

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE 00Z TAFS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS DESPITE INCREASING MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS.

MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO
MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN.  IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST...AS HEAVIER RAIN WORKS INTO THE REGION.
THIS IN RESPONSE TO WIDESPREAD RAIN WORKING IN FROM THE WEST.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO GUST TO 30 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST BY
AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY LOW END MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS. PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AS AT LEAST
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION PROBABLY ENTERS THE WARM SECTOR.  A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...WITH THE HIGHEST RISK
ON THE SOUTH COAST NEAR THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET BUT THEY ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.  WHILE SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY GUST
TO 30 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST...LLWS OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS EXPECTED AT
2000 THOUSAND FEET WITH DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH 14Z MONDAY IN VFR CONDITIONS.
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SOME RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE TERMINAL
BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z...SOME IFR TO FOLLOW.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH 11 OR 12Z MONDAY IN VFR
CONDITIONS. MVFR CONDITIONS IN SOME RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
TERMINAL BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUE INTO EARLY WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR EARLY TUE. ALTHOUGH LINGERING CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. THE VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO EARLY
WED W WINDS ON TUE GIVE WAY TO SW WINDS ON WED...WITH A FEW GUSTS
TO AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE.

WED EVENING INTO EARLY THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
COLD FRONT INCREASES THE RISK FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.
CONDITIONS MAY DIP TO MVFR/IFR AT TIMES DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

REST OF THU AND FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR.  CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
THROUGH AT LEAST 8 OR 9Z WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
PLACE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
PERSISTENT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS DEVELOP BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY EVENING.  WE HOISTED GALES
FOR OUR EASTERN OUTER-WATERS WITH BETTER MIXING EXPECTED AND HAVE
STRONG SCA POSTED ELSEWHERE.  HOWEVER...BRIEF SOUTHEAST GALE FORCE
WIND GUSTS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ANYWHERE MONDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IF
WE CAN GENERATE ANY CONVECTION.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET WITH LONG EASTERLY FETCH
ACROSS OUR EASTERN WATERS.  SHOWERS...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY
FOG WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES FOR MARINERS AT
TIMES.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUE AND WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
ALTHOUGH W-SW WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING DURING THE DAY ON
TUE...LINGERING LARGE SWELL OF 10+ FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS
EXPECTED. THIS SWELL REMAINS ABOVE THE 5 FT THRESHOLD ON WED AS
WELL. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUES.

THU AND FRI...
WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SW ON THU AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF MAINTAINING SWELLS ON S WATERS. WINDS BACK TO THE W
BY FRI. COULD SEE PERIOD GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT EACH AFTERNOON...SO
WITH THE LEFTOVER SEAS AND PERIODIC GUSTS...SOME SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
VERY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES OCCUR LATE THIS EVENING AND JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  WHILE WE CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME VERY MINOR SPLASH
OVER...DID NOT THINK IT WAS WORTH ANY HEADLINES.  LATER SHIFTS WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AND NOT COINCIDE WITH THE HIGHEST ASTRONOMICAL
TIDE.  HOWEVER...THE HIGH TIDE WERE CONCERNED ABOUT OCCURS LATE
MONDAY EVENING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND VERY EARLY TUE MORNING
ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST.  WE PROBABLY ARE LOOKING AT A 1 TO 1.5
FOOT STORM SURGE ALONG WITH 10 TO 15 FOOT SEAS OFFSHORE.  THIS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND
SPLASH OVER.  THEREFORE...DECIDED TO HOIST A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THESE LOCATIONS DURING THEIR LATE MONDAY EVENING AND EARLY TUE
MORNING HIGH TIDES.  WINDS DO NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH AT THE TIME OF
HIGH TIDE FOR A MODERATE COASTAL FLOOD EVENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT TO 4 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MAZ020-021.
RI...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR RIZ002-004>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     GALE WARNING FROM NOON MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ250-251-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM MONDAY TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 192323
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
723 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
MILD TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING GIVE WAY TO A DRYING TREND DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THEN MUCH COOLER WEATHER OVERSPREADS THE AREA MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH THE RISK OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...

GRADIENT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALREADY DEVELOPING ON THE FAR
NORTHERN PERIPHERY INFLUENCE OF A WARM FRONT. THIS FLOW HAS LED TO
ANOTHER WIDE SPREAD IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING TEMPERATURES MAINLY
OF COURSE DUE TO MARINE INFLUENCE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT EXPANDING
HIGH AND MID CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH WILL LIMIT
DIURNAL COOLING SOMEWHAT STILL EXPECT MINS A BIT COOLER THAN LAST
NIGHT GIVEN THE COOLER START AND BULK OF THE RAINFALL HOLDS OFF
UNTIL MAINLY 12Z AND AFTER. SPEAKING OF THIS RAINFALL...TIMING OF
POPS/WX LOOKS GOOD SO NO PLANNED CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPS AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH NOT
NEARLY AS EXTREME AS YESTERDAY.  LATE AFTERNOON READINGS RANGED FROM
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND LOWER 60S
IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY.  TEMP RANGE WILL BEGIN TO NARROW AFTER
SUNSET...AS THE DRY AIR IN PLACE ALLOWS THE INTERIOR TO BEGIN TO
RADIATE OUT.

HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL VERY SLOWLY SHIFT
EAST TONIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE MIDWEST. WHILE IT
WILL REMAIN DRY TONIGHT...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE WEST AND THICKEN AFTER MIDNIGHT.  LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATING ACROSS THE EASTERN CANADIAN MARITIMES.  THIS WILL
GENERATE A CHILLY EAST WIND AT THE SURFACE WITH A SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL JET JUST OFF THE DECK.  THE RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD RAIN
WHICH WILL WORK ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. THE RAIN SHOULD
ARRIVE ACROSS WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT BETWEEN 7 AND 10 AM...REACHING
EASTERN MA/RI BETWEEN 10 AM AND 1 PM. THE RAIN WILL INITIALLY BE
LIGHT...BUT SHOULD PICKUP IN INTENSITY FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...BECOMING MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES.

IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY CHILLY WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO NEAR
50 MONDAY AFTERNOON.  IN ADDITION...INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN EASTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ALONG THE COAST.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO THE LOWER
40S!

MONDAY NIGHT...

WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND MOVE NEAR OR NORTHWEST
OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW RHODE ISLAND AND AT LEAST
SOUTHEAST MA TO WARM SECTOR...ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 50S.
LOW LEVEL JET OF 50 KNOTS COMBINED WITH PWATS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES
WILL ALLOW FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST PART
OF THE NIGHT.  IN ADDITION...SHOWALTER INDICES DROPPING BELOW ZERO
MAY RESULT IN A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS.  THE HIGHEST RISK OF ANY
CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS RHODE ISLAND/SOUTHEAST MA ON THE NOSE OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET...BUT ITS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH PWATS AND GOOD FORCING...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN MAY
RESULT IN TYPICAL NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING.
HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED AS WE ARE
ONLY LOOKING AT BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL.  THE ONE
AREA WE MAY HAVE TO WATCH IS ACROSS EASTERN CT/RI/SOUTHEAST MA.  A
FEW OF OUR MESOSCALE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR 2+
INCHES OF RAIN WITH PERHAPS SOME CONVECTION.  AGAIN THOUGH...THIS
REALLY LOOKS LIKE TYPICAL BRIEF NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE STREET
FLOODING EVENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TUE...SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS THEN AN AFTERNOON DRYING TREND
* WED-SAT...COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS...MAINLY DIURNAL

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM PHASES WITH SOUTHERN PLAINS CUTOFF LOW
TODAY TO FORM AN ANOMALOUS LOW/VORTEX OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUE.
THEREAFTER THIS UPPER LOW WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE AS HIGH LATITUDE
BLOCKING DEVELOPS WITH POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY EVOLVING OVER THE
SOUTHERN DAVIS STRAIT. THIS RESULTS IN A VERY SLOW MOVING VORTEX
FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WED TO ONLY ADVANCING EASTWARD INTO
MAINE BY NEXT WEEKEND! WHILE THIS SEEMS EXTREME IT/S DOES HAVE
SUPPORT FROM TELECONNECTIONS AS AO/NAO AND EPO AS ALL THREE INDICES
GO NEGATIVE. GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE WILL WORK BEST AS A BASELINE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

DAILY DETAILS...

TUESDAY...TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
INSTABILITY ALOFT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ELEVATED THUNDER. IF NOT AT
THE VERY LEAST THIS INSTABILITY WILL ENHANCE SHOWER INTENSITY AND
ASSOCIATED DOWNPOURS. BY AFTERNOON DRY SLOT WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY
AROUND THE SYSTEM AND INTO THE REGION. SO SUSPECT WITH DEEPENING DRY
LAYER AND COLD ADVECTION TUE AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE A DRYING TREND
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. IN ADDITION...MILD START TO THE DAY COMBINED
WITH BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE POSSIBLE AND WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 60S.

WED AND THU...WHILE BOTH ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF MID LEVEL CLOSED
LOW...AS EXPECTED MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE AMPLITUDE AND
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES CIRCULATE AROUND THE VORTEX. THUS
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING SHOWER THREAT THIS PERIOD. TRENDING COOLER
AS MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT ADVECT EASTWARD INTO
THE REGION. COOLER THU THAN WED.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ECENS/EPS SUGGEST CORE OF COLD AIR ALOFT
SETTLES OVER THE AREA AS MID LEVEL LOW TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN NY
STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH 850 TEMPS COOLING TO -2C TO
-5C! RISK OF SHOWERS TOO GIVEN COLD AIR AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MIX WITH SOME SNOW
AT TIMES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN!

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE 00Z TAFS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS DESPITE INCREASING MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS.

MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO
MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN.  IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST...AS HEAVIER RAIN WORKS INTO THE REGION.
THIS IN RESPONSE TO WIDESPREAD RAIN WORKING IN FROM THE WEST.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO GUST TO 30 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST BY
AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY LOW END MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS. PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AS AT LEAST
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION PROBABLY ENTERS THE WARM SECTOR.  A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...WITH THE HIGHEST RISK
ON THE SOUTH COAST NEAR THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET BUT THEY ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.  WHILE SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY GUST
TO 30 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST...LLWS OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS EXPECTED AT
2000 THOUSAND FEET WITH DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH 14Z MONDAY IN VFR CONDITIONS.
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SOME RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE TERMINAL
BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z...SOME IFR TO FOLLOW.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH 11 OR 12Z MONDAY IN VFR
CONDITIONS. MVFR CONDITIONS IN SOME RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
TERMINAL BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUE INTO EARLY WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR EARLY TUE. ALTHOUGH LINGERING CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. THE VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO EARLY
WED W WINDS ON TUE GIVE WAY TO SW WINDS ON WED...WITH A FEW GUSTS
TO AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE.

WED EVENING INTO EARLY THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
COLD FRONT INCREASES THE RISK FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.
CONDITIONS MAY DIP TO MVFR/IFR AT TIMES DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

REST OF THU AND FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR.  CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
THROUGH AT LEAST 8 OR 9Z WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
PLACE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
PERSISTENT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS DEVELOP BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY EVENING.  WE HOISTED GALES
FOR OUR EASTERN OUTER-WATERS WITH BETTER MIXING EXPECTED AND HAVE
STRONG SCA POSTED ELSEWHERE.  HOWEVER...BRIEF SOUTHEAST GALE FORCE
WIND GUSTS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ANYWHERE MONDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IF
WE CAN GENERATE ANY CONVECTION.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET WITH LONG EASTERLY FETCH
ACROSS OUR EASTERN WATERS.  SHOWERS...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY
FOG WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES FOR MARINERS AT
TIMES.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUE AND WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
ALTHOUGH W-SW WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING DURING THE DAY ON
TUE...LINGERING LARGE SWELL OF 10+ FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS
EXPECTED. THIS SWELL REMAINS ABOVE THE 5 FT THRESHOLD ON WED AS
WELL. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUES.

THU AND FRI...
WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SW ON THU AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF MAINTAINING SWELLS ON S WATERS. WINDS BACK TO THE W
BY FRI. COULD SEE PERIOD GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT EACH AFTERNOON...SO
WITH THE LEFTOVER SEAS AND PERIODIC GUSTS...SOME SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
VERY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES OCCUR LATE THIS EVENING AND JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  WHILE WE CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME VERY MINOR SPLASH
OVER...DID NOT THINK IT WAS WORTH ANY HEADLINES.  LATER SHIFTS WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AND NOT COINCIDE WITH THE HIGHEST ASTRONOMICAL
TIDE.  HOWEVER...THE HIGH TIDE WERE CONCERNED ABOUT OCCURS LATE
MONDAY EVENING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND VERY EARLY TUE MORNING
ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST.  WE PROBABLY ARE LOOKING AT A 1 TO 1.5
FOOT STORM SURGE ALONG WITH 10 TO 15 FOOT SEAS OFFSHORE.  THIS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND
SPLASH OVER.  THEREFORE...DECIDED TO HOIST A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THESE LOCATIONS DURING THEIR LATE MONDAY EVENING AND EARLY TUE
MORNING HIGH TIDES.  WINDS DO NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH AT THE TIME OF
HIGH TIDE FOR A MODERATE COASTAL FLOOD EVENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT TO 4 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MAZ020-021.
RI...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR RIZ002-004>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     GALE WARNING FROM NOON MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ250-251-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM MONDAY TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 192039
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
439 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
MILD TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING GIVE WAY TO A DRYING TREND DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THEN MUCH COOLER WEATHER OVERSPREADS THE AREA MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH THE RISK OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
4 PM UPDATE...

A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPS AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH NOT
NEARLY AS EXTREME AS YESTERDAY.  LATE AFTERNOON READINGS RANGED FROM
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND LOWER 60S
IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY.  TEMP RANGE WILL BEGIN TO NARROW AFTER
SUNSET...AS THE DRY AIR IN PLACE ALLOWS THE INTERIOR TO BEGIN TO
RADIATE OUT.

HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL VERY SLOWLY SHIFT
EAST TONIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE MIDWEST. WHILE IT
WILL REMAIN DRY TONIGHT...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE WEST AND THICKEN AFTER MIDNIGHT.  LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATING ACROSS THE EASTERN CANADIAN MARITIMES.  THIS WILL
GENERATE A CHILLY EAST WIND AT THE SURFACE WITH A SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL JET JUST OFF THE DECK.  THE RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD RAIN
WHICH WILL WORK ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. THE RAIN SHOULD
ARRIVE ACROSS WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT BETWEEN 7 AND 10 AM...REACHING
EASTERN MA/RI BETWEEN 10 AM AND 1 PM. THE RAIN WILL INITIALLY BE
LIGHT...BUT SHOULD PICKUP IN INTENSITY FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...BECOMING MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES.

IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY CHILLY WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO NEAR
50 MONDAY AFTERNOON.  IN ADDITION...INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN EASTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ALONG THE COAST.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO THE LOWER
40S!

MONDAY NIGHT...

WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND MOVE NEAR OR NORTHWEST
OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW RHODE ISLAND AND AT LEAST
SOUTHEAST MA TO WARM SECTOR...ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 50S.
LOW LEVEL JET OF 50 KNOTS COMBINED WITH PWATS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES
WILL ALLOW FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST PART
OF THE NIGHT.  IN ADDITION...SHOWALTER INDICES DROPPING BELOW ZERO
MAY RESULT IN A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS.  THE HIGHEST RISK OF ANY
CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS RHODE ISLAND/SOUTHEAST MA ON THE NOSE OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET...BUT ITS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH PWATS AND GOOD FORCING...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN MAY
RESULT IN TYPICAL NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING.
HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED AS WE ARE
ONLY LOOKING AT BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL.  THE ONE
AREA WE MAY HAVE TO WATCH IS ACROSS EASTERN CT/RI/SOUTHEAST MA.  A
FEW OF OUR MESOSCALE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR 2+
INCHES OF RAIN WITH PERHAPS SOME CONVECTION.  AGAIN THOUGH...THIS
REALLY LOOKS LIKE TYPICAL BRIEF NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE STREET
FLOODING EVENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TUE...SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS THEN AN AFTERNOON DRYING TREND
* WED-SAT...COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS...MAINLY DIURNAL

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM PHASES WITH SOUTHERN PLAINS CUTOFF LOW
TODAY TO FORM AN ANOMALOUS LOW/VORTEX OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUE.
THEREAFTER THIS UPPER LOW WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE AS HIGH LATITUDE
BLOCKING DEVELOPS WITH POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY EVOLVING OVER THE
SOUTHERN DAVIS STRAIT. THIS RESULTS IN A VERY SLOW MOVING VORTEX
FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WED TO ONLY ADVANCING EASTWARD INTO
MAINE BY NEXT WEEKEND! WHILE THIS SEEMS EXTREME IT/S DOES HAVE
SUPPORT FROM TELECONNECTIONS AS AO/NAO AND EPO AS ALL THREE INDICES
GO NEGATIVE. GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE WILL WORK BEST AS A BASELINE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

DAILY DETAILS...

TUESDAY...TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
INSTABILITY ALOFT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ELEVATED THUNDER. IF NOT AT
THE VERY LEAST THIS INSTABILITY WILL ENHANCE SHOWER INTENSITY AND
ASSOCIATED DOWNPOURS. BY AFTERNOON DRY SLOT WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY
AROUND THE SYSTEM AND INTO THE REGION. SO SUSPECT WITH DEEPENING DRY
LAYER AND COLD ADVECTION TUE AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE A DRYING TREND
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. IN ADDITION...MILD START TO THE DAY COMBINED
WITH BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE POSSIBLE AND WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 60S.

WED AND THU...WHILE BOTH ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF MID LEVEL CLOSED
LOW...AS EXPECTED MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE AMPLITUDE AND
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES CIRCULATE AROUND THE VORTEX. THUS
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING SHOWER THREAT THIS PERIOD. TRENDING COOLER
AS MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT ADVECT EASTWARD INTO
THE REGION. COOLER THU THAN WED.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ECENS/EPS SUGGEST CORE OF COLD AIR ALOFT
SETTLES OVER THE AREA AS MID LEVEL LOW TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN NY
STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH 850 TEMPS COOLING TO -2C TO
-5C! RISK OF SHOWERS TOO GIVEN COLD AIR AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MIX WITH SOME SNOW
AT TIMES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN!

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS DESPITE INCREASING MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS.

MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO
MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN.  IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST...AS HEAVIER RAIN WORKS INTO THE REGION.
THIS IN RESPONSE TO WIDESPREAD RAIN WORKING IN FROM THE WEST.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO GUST TO 30 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST BY
AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY LOW END MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS. PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AS AT LEAST
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION PROBABLY ENTERS THE WARM SECTOR.  A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...WITH THE HIGHEST RISK
ON THE SOUTH COAST NEAR THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET BUT THEY ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.  WHILE SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY GUST
TO 30 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST...LLWS OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS EXPECTED AT
2000 THOUSAND FEET WITH DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH 14Z MONDAY IN VFR CONDITIONS.
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SOME RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE TERMINAL
BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH 11 OR 12Z MONDAY IN VFR
CONDITIONS. MVFR CONDITIONS IN SOME RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
TERMINAL BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUE INTO EARLY WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR EARLY TUE. ALTHOUGH LINGERING CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. THE VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO EARLY
WED W WINDS ON TUE GIVE WAY TO SW WINDS ON WED...WITH A FEW GUSTS
TO AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE.

WED EVENING INTO EARLY THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
COLD FRONT INCREASES THE RISK FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.
CONDITIONS MAY DIP TO MVFR/IFR AT TIMES DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

REST OF THU AND FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR.  CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
THROUGH AT LEAST 8 OR 9Z WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
PLACE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
PERSISTENT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS DEVELOP BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY EVENING.  WE HOISTED GALES
FOR OUR EASTERN OUTER-WATERS WITH BETTER MIXING EXPECTED AND HAVE
STRONG SCA POSTED ELSEWHERE.  HOWEVER...BRIEF SOUTHEAST GALE FORCE
WIND GUSTS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ANYWHERE MONDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IF
WE CAN GENERATE ANY CONVECTION.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET WITH LONG EASTERLY FETCH
ACROSS OUR EASTERN WATERS.  SHOWERS...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY
FOG WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES FOR MARINERS AT
TIMES.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUE AND WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
ALTHOUGH W-SW WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING DURING THE DAY ON
TUE...LINGERING LARGE SWELL OF 10+ FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS
EXPECTED. THIS SWELL REMAINS ABOVE THE 5 FT THRESHOLD ON WED AS
WELL. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUES.

THU AND FRI...
WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SW ON THU AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF MAINTAINING SWELLS ON S WATERS. WINDS BACK TO THE W
BY FRI. COULD SEE PERIOD GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT EACH AFTERNOON...SO
WITH THE LEFTOVER SEAS AND PERIODIC GUSTS...SOME SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
VERY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES OCCUR LATE THIS EVENING AND JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  WHILE WE CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME VERY MINOR SPLASH
OVER...DID NOT THINK IT WAS WORTH ANY HEADLINES.  LATER SHIFTS WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AND NOT COINCIDE WITH THE HIGHEST ASTRONOMICAL
TIDE.  HOWEVER...THE HIGH TIDE WERE CONCERNED ABOUT OCCURS LATE
MONDAY EVENING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND VERY EARLY TUE MORNING
ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST.  WE PROBABLY ARE LOOKING AT A 1 TO 1.5
FOOT STORM SURGE ALONG WITH 10 TO 15 FOOT SEAS OFFSHORE.  THIS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND
SPLASH OVER.  THEREFORE...DECIDED TO HOIST A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THESE LOCATIONS DURING THEIR LATE MONDAY EVENING AND EARLY TUE
MORNING HIGH TIDES.  WINDS DO NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH AT THE TIME OF
HIGH TIDE FOR A MODERATE COASTAL FLOOD EVENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT TO 4 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MAZ020-021.
RI...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR RIZ002-004>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     GALE WARNING FROM NOON MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ250-251-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM MONDAY TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 192039
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
439 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WIND SWEPT SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
MILD TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING GIVE WAY TO A DRYING TREND DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THEN MUCH COOLER WEATHER OVERSPREADS THE AREA MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH THE RISK OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
4 PM UPDATE...

A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPS AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH NOT
NEARLY AS EXTREME AS YESTERDAY.  LATE AFTERNOON READINGS RANGED FROM
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND LOWER 60S
IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY.  TEMP RANGE WILL BEGIN TO NARROW AFTER
SUNSET...AS THE DRY AIR IN PLACE ALLOWS THE INTERIOR TO BEGIN TO
RADIATE OUT.

HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL VERY SLOWLY SHIFT
EAST TONIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE MIDWEST. WHILE IT
WILL REMAIN DRY TONIGHT...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE WEST AND THICKEN AFTER MIDNIGHT.  LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATING ACROSS THE EASTERN CANADIAN MARITIMES.  THIS WILL
GENERATE A CHILLY EAST WIND AT THE SURFACE WITH A SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL JET JUST OFF THE DECK.  THE RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD RAIN
WHICH WILL WORK ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. THE RAIN SHOULD
ARRIVE ACROSS WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT BETWEEN 7 AND 10 AM...REACHING
EASTERN MA/RI BETWEEN 10 AM AND 1 PM. THE RAIN WILL INITIALLY BE
LIGHT...BUT SHOULD PICKUP IN INTENSITY FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...BECOMING MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES.

IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY CHILLY WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO NEAR
50 MONDAY AFTERNOON.  IN ADDITION...INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN EASTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ALONG THE COAST.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO THE LOWER
40S!

MONDAY NIGHT...

WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND MOVE NEAR OR NORTHWEST
OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW RHODE ISLAND AND AT LEAST
SOUTHEAST MA TO WARM SECTOR...ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 50S.
LOW LEVEL JET OF 50 KNOTS COMBINED WITH PWATS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES
WILL ALLOW FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST PART
OF THE NIGHT.  IN ADDITION...SHOWALTER INDICES DROPPING BELOW ZERO
MAY RESULT IN A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS.  THE HIGHEST RISK OF ANY
CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS RHODE ISLAND/SOUTHEAST MA ON THE NOSE OF
THE LOW LEVEL JET...BUT ITS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH PWATS AND GOOD FORCING...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN MAY
RESULT IN TYPICAL NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING.
HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED AS WE ARE
ONLY LOOKING AT BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL.  THE ONE
AREA WE MAY HAVE TO WATCH IS ACROSS EASTERN CT/RI/SOUTHEAST MA.  A
FEW OF OUR MESOSCALE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR 2+
INCHES OF RAIN WITH PERHAPS SOME CONVECTION.  AGAIN THOUGH...THIS
REALLY LOOKS LIKE TYPICAL BRIEF NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE STREET
FLOODING EVENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TUE...SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS THEN AN AFTERNOON DRYING TREND
* WED-SAT...COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS...MAINLY DIURNAL

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM PHASES WITH SOUTHERN PLAINS CUTOFF LOW
TODAY TO FORM AN ANOMALOUS LOW/VORTEX OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUE.
THEREAFTER THIS UPPER LOW WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE AS HIGH LATITUDE
BLOCKING DEVELOPS WITH POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY EVOLVING OVER THE
SOUTHERN DAVIS STRAIT. THIS RESULTS IN A VERY SLOW MOVING VORTEX
FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WED TO ONLY ADVANCING EASTWARD INTO
MAINE BY NEXT WEEKEND! WHILE THIS SEEMS EXTREME IT/S DOES HAVE
SUPPORT FROM TELECONNECTIONS AS AO/NAO AND EPO AS ALL THREE INDICES
GO NEGATIVE. GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE WILL WORK BEST AS A BASELINE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

DAILY DETAILS...

TUESDAY...TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
INSTABILITY ALOFT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ELEVATED THUNDER. IF NOT AT
THE VERY LEAST THIS INSTABILITY WILL ENHANCE SHOWER INTENSITY AND
ASSOCIATED DOWNPOURS. BY AFTERNOON DRY SLOT WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY
AROUND THE SYSTEM AND INTO THE REGION. SO SUSPECT WITH DEEPENING DRY
LAYER AND COLD ADVECTION TUE AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE A DRYING TREND
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. IN ADDITION...MILD START TO THE DAY COMBINED
WITH BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE POSSIBLE AND WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 60S.

WED AND THU...WHILE BOTH ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF MID LEVEL CLOSED
LOW...AS EXPECTED MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE AMPLITUDE AND
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES CIRCULATE AROUND THE VORTEX. THUS
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING SHOWER THREAT THIS PERIOD. TRENDING COOLER
AS MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT ADVECT EASTWARD INTO
THE REGION. COOLER THU THAN WED.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ECENS/EPS SUGGEST CORE OF COLD AIR ALOFT
SETTLES OVER THE AREA AS MID LEVEL LOW TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN NY
STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH 850 TEMPS COOLING TO -2C TO
-5C! RISK OF SHOWERS TOO GIVEN COLD AIR AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MIX WITH SOME SNOW
AT TIMES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN!

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS DESPITE INCREASING MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS.

MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO
MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN.  IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST...AS HEAVIER RAIN WORKS INTO THE REGION.
THIS IN RESPONSE TO WIDESPREAD RAIN WORKING IN FROM THE WEST.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO GUST TO 30 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST BY
AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY LOW END MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS. PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AS AT LEAST
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION PROBABLY ENTERS THE WARM SECTOR.  A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...WITH THE HIGHEST RISK
ON THE SOUTH COAST NEAR THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET BUT THEY ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.  WHILE SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY GUST
TO 30 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST...LLWS OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS EXPECTED AT
2000 THOUSAND FEET WITH DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH 14Z MONDAY IN VFR CONDITIONS.
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SOME RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE TERMINAL
BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH 11 OR 12Z MONDAY IN VFR
CONDITIONS. MVFR CONDITIONS IN SOME RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
TERMINAL BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUE INTO EARLY WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR EARLY TUE. ALTHOUGH LINGERING CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. THE VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO EARLY
WED W WINDS ON TUE GIVE WAY TO SW WINDS ON WED...WITH A FEW GUSTS
TO AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE.

WED EVENING INTO EARLY THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
COLD FRONT INCREASES THE RISK FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.
CONDITIONS MAY DIP TO MVFR/IFR AT TIMES DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

REST OF THU AND FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR.  CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
THROUGH AT LEAST 8 OR 9Z WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
PLACE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
PERSISTENT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS DEVELOP BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY EVENING.  WE HOISTED GALES
FOR OUR EASTERN OUTER-WATERS WITH BETTER MIXING EXPECTED AND HAVE
STRONG SCA POSTED ELSEWHERE.  HOWEVER...BRIEF SOUTHEAST GALE FORCE
WIND GUSTS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ANYWHERE MONDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IF
WE CAN GENERATE ANY CONVECTION.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET WITH LONG EASTERLY FETCH
ACROSS OUR EASTERN WATERS.  SHOWERS...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY
FOG WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES FOR MARINERS AT
TIMES.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUE AND WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
ALTHOUGH W-SW WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING DURING THE DAY ON
TUE...LINGERING LARGE SWELL OF 10+ FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS
EXPECTED. THIS SWELL REMAINS ABOVE THE 5 FT THRESHOLD ON WED AS
WELL. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUES.

THU AND FRI...
WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SW ON THU AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF MAINTAINING SWELLS ON S WATERS. WINDS BACK TO THE W
BY FRI. COULD SEE PERIOD GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT EACH AFTERNOON...SO
WITH THE LEFTOVER SEAS AND PERIODIC GUSTS...SOME SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
VERY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES OCCUR LATE THIS EVENING AND JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  WHILE WE CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME VERY MINOR SPLASH
OVER...DID NOT THINK IT WAS WORTH ANY HEADLINES.  LATER SHIFTS WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AND NOT COINCIDE WITH THE HIGHEST ASTRONOMICAL
TIDE.  HOWEVER...THE HIGH TIDE WERE CONCERNED ABOUT OCCURS LATE
MONDAY EVENING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND VERY EARLY TUE MORNING
ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST.  WE PROBABLY ARE LOOKING AT A 1 TO 1.5
FOOT STORM SURGE ALONG WITH 10 TO 15 FOOT SEAS OFFSHORE.  THIS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND
SPLASH OVER.  THEREFORE...DECIDED TO HOIST A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THESE LOCATIONS DURING THEIR LATE MONDAY EVENING AND EARLY TUE
MORNING HIGH TIDES.  WINDS DO NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH AT THE TIME OF
HIGH TIDE FOR A MODERATE COASTAL FLOOD EVENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT TO 4 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MAZ020-021.
RI...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR RIZ002-004>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ230-236.
     GALE WARNING FROM NOON MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ250-251-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM MONDAY TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 191752
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
150 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MUCH COOLER WEATHER TODAY. A WIND
SWEPT SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND MILD TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING GIVE WAY TO A DRYING TREND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THEN MUCH COOLER WEATHER OVERSPREADS THE
AREA MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH THE RISK OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

150 PM UPDATE...

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CONTINUE AT MID AFTERNOON.  LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...OTHER THAN A GRADUAL
THICKENING OF SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS IN UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST INCLUDING BOSTON.  HIGHS STILL SHOULD REACH INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY.  IN
BETWEEN THE COAST AND LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY...EXPECT HIGHS WELL UP
INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS E AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE W. WINDS
ENHANCE OUT OF THE E/SE AS CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS W NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING. YET BELIEVE LOW
MARINE STRATUS MAY BECOME AN ISSUE BEFOREHAND AS LONG E-FETCH OFF
THE WATERS COULD YIELD MOISTURE POOLING BENEATH THE DRY-INVERSION
PER LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE THAT CONDENSES WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING AS
WELL AS PROXIMITY OF COOLER WATERS. NOT THINKING SO MUCH FOG WITH
BRISK E/SE SURFACE WINDS BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. CHILLY OVER-
NIGHT WITH E/SE ONSHORE FLOW...LOWS AROUND THE UPPER-30S.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...

BREAKING THIS DOWN INTO TWO PARTS. THE FIRST PART BEING THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL WARM FRONT LIFTING NE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. SYNOPTIC
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE. DECENT H85-7 THETA-E
MOIST PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL ORIGINS FUNNELED N BY ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
LOW-LEVEL S-FLOW OF 50-60 KNOTS THE H925-85 CONVERGENT NOSE OF WHICH
IS COLLOCATED ALONG AND REARWARD OF THE WARM FRONT. PWATS UP TO 1.5-
INCHES...ROUGHLY AROUND +2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
MONTH OF APRIL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. COLLOCATION OF BEST INGREDIENTS
AROUND MID-MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING MONDAY DURING WHICH TIME THERE
IS THE EXPECTATION OF A BROAD SWATH OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SHOWERS. LACK OF INSTABILITY SO NOT THINKING ANY THUNDER. WARM FRONT
SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE WITH H85-3 30-40 KNOT S/SW-FLOW SO FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME THINKING AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND 0.75-INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE LOCALES
EXCEED AN INCH. BUT THIS IS OVER A NEARLY 12-HOUR PERIOD. EVALUATING
SREF PROBABILITIES ALONG WITH FORECAST THINKING...PERHAPS NUISANCE
URBAN FLOODING BUT A LOW RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. NO LONGER ANY SNOW
COVER EITHER...AND THERE IS A BREAK IN THE ACTION OUTLINED BELOW.

EXPECTING A LULL BETWEEN PARTS AS DRIER AIR ENTRAINS REARWARD OF THE
WARM FRONT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE FILLS BACK IN
AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH. ACCOMPANYING LEFT-
FRONT-QUADRANT OF A JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH HAS
THE POTENTIAL OF INVOKING A SURFACE REFLECTION OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE NE-CONUS...THAT OR STOUT BROADSCALE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. COLLOCATED
WEAK INSTABILITY / CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE...
AND THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONTINUED WET WEATHER WITH POTENTIAL
ELEVATED THUNDER. NOT ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN ON OUTCOMES BUT THE FORCING
SEEMS APPARENT WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO RESULT IN SOMETHING
AT LEAST SHOWERY...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN AND AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THUNDER. SHOWALTERS < 0 WITH TOTAL-TOTALS > 50
IN ADDITION TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. WILL GO CHANCE THUNDER. ONCE
AGAIN...NUISANCE FLOODING CONSIDERATIONS ESPECIALLY IN URBAN CENTERS
BUT LOW RISK FLASH FLOODING.

IN ALL LOOKING AT STORM-TOTAL RAINFALL FOR ROUGHLY A 24-HOUR PERIOD
OF 1.0-1.5 INCHES. WIDESPREAD RAIN. EMBEDDED HEAVY SHOWERS. CHANCE
THUNDER. SUBSEQUENT NUISANCE POOR-DRAINAGE FLOODING. BREEZY ONSHORE
SE-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35 MPH ALONG THE COAST. VISIBILITY
ISSUES WITH A COMBINATION OF FOG AND/OR HEAVY RAIN. FIRST SET OF
IMPACTS MID-MORNING INTO EVENING MONDAY...A LULL...THEN MORE WET WX
IS ANTICIPATED LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE THE UMBRELLA HANDY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TUE...SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS THEN AN AFTERNOON DRYING TREND
* WED-SAT...COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS...MAINLY DIURNAL

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM PHASES WITH SOUTHERN PLAINS CUTOFF LOW
TODAY TO FORM AN ANOMALOUS LOW/VORTEX OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUE.
THEREAFTER THIS UPPER LOW WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE AS HIGH LATITUDE
BLOCKING DEVELOPS WITH POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY EVOLVING OVER THE
SOUTHERN DAVIS STRAIT. THIS RESULTS IN A VERY SLOW MOVING VORTEX
FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WED TO ONLY ADVANCING EASTWARD INTO
MAINE BY NEXT WEEKEND! WHILE THIS SEEMS EXTREME IT/S DOES HAVE
SUPPORT FROM TELECONNECTIONS AS AO/NAO AND EPO AS ALL THREE INDICES
GO NEGATIVE. GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE WILL WORK BEST AS A BASELINE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

DAILY DETAILS...

TUESDAY...TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
INSTABILITY ALOFT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ELEVATED THUNDER. IF NOT AT
THE VERY LEAST THIS INSTABILITY WILL ENHANCE SHOWER INTENSITY AND
ASSOCIATED DOWNPOURS. BY AFTERNOON DRY SLOT WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY
AROUND THE SYSTEM AND INTO THE REGION. SO SUSPECT WITH DEEPENING DRY
LAYER AND COLD ADVECTION TUE AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE A DRYING TREND
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. IN ADDITION...MILD START TO THE DAY COMBINED
WITH BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE POSSIBLE AND WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 60S.

WED AND THU...WHILE BOTH ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF MID LEVEL CLOSED
LOW...AS EXPECTED MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE AMPLITUDE AND
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES CIRCULATE AROUND THE VORTEX. THUS
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING SHOWER THREAT THIS PERIOD. TRENDING COOLER
AS MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT ADVECT EASTWARD INTO
THE REGION. COOLER THU THAN WED.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ECENS/EPS SUGGEST CORE OF COLD AIR ALOFT
SETTLES OVER THE AREA AS MID LEVEL LOW TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN NY
STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH 850 TEMPS COOLING TO -2C TO
-5C! RISK OF SHOWERS TOO GIVEN COLD AIR AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MIX WITH SOME SNOW
AT TIMES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
DESPITE INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.

MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO
MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN.  IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST...AS HEAVIER RAIN WORKS INTO THE REGION.
THIS IN RESPONSE TO WIDESPREAD RAIN WORKING IN FROM THE WEST.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO GUST TO 30 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST BY
AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY LOW END MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS. PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AS AT LEAST
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION PROBABLY ENTERS THE WARM SECTOR.  A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...WITH THE HIGHEST RISK
ON THE SOUTH COAST NEAR THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET BUT THEY ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.  WHILE SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY GUST
TO 30 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST...LLWS OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS EXPECTED AT
2000 THOUSAND FEET WITH DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH 14Z MONDAY IN VFR CONDITIONS.
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SOME RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE TERMINAL
BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH 11 OR 12Z MONDAY IN VFR
CONDITIONS. MVFR CONDITIONS IN SOME RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
TERMINAL BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...SO UNCERTAINTY HOW QUICKLY CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. IFR/MVFR TUE AM IN SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
MVFR/VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH DRYING TREND.

WED AND THU...LOW CONFIDENCE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT AMPLITUDE
AND TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL COLD FRONTS AND ATTENDING SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 25
KNOTS ACROSS NANTUCKET SOUND AND POINTS SOUTHEAST.  THOUGHT ABOUT A
SHORT FUSED SMALL CRAFT HEADLINE...BUT SINCE WE HAVE LONG DURATION
HEADLINES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT OPTED TO LET IT GO SINCE WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH SOME OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ENHANCING SE-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS ACROSS THE WATERS BY MORNING. MARINE STRATUS DEVELOPING. MAYBE
SOME FOG ISSUES OVER THE WATERS. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FEET ON THE
S-WATERS.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SHOWERS. VSBY RESTRICTIONS SUBSEQUENTLY ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG.
E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ALONG THE COAST. LOW RISK OF
GALES ON THE E OUTER WATERS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FEET. UP TO 12 FEET ON
THE S OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS WITH THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY FOG AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS REMAIN AN
ISSUE. CONTINUED E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ALONG THE
COAST. LOW RISK OF GALES ON THE E OUTER WATERS. SEAS 10 TO 12 FEET
ON THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUE...STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MON NIGHT MOVING OFFSHORE...THUS WINDS
DIMINISHING THRU THE DAY. LEFTOVER SE SWELLS WILL REMAIN LARGE. HIGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

WED INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOMEWHAT DRIER WITH IMPROVED
VSBYS FROM TUE AM. ANY PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL AND IN THE FORM
OF SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND A PERIOD OF STRONG ONSHORE WINDS MAY
YIELD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE RI AND MA COASTLINE. HIGHEST
TIDE MON EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AROUND 11 PM SOUTH COAST AND 2 AM
EASTERN MA. AT THE MOMENT MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE GREATEST
WIND AND SURGE OCCURRING AROUND LOW TIDE MON EVENING. ALTHOUGH HAVE TO
WATCH THIS CLOSELY GIVEN ONLY 6 HR TIME DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LOW AND
HIGH TIDE.

ESTOFS APPEARED MORE REASONABLE AND BULLISH THAN ETSS WITH SURGE
VALUES MON AFTN AND EVENING 1.0 TO 1.5 FT. WAVE MODELS SUGGEST SEAS
NEAR SHORE WAVES 10-15 FT AT THIS TIME. LIKELY NOT SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT A WATCH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 191752
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
150 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MUCH COOLER WEATHER TODAY. A WIND
SWEPT SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND MILD TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING GIVE WAY TO A DRYING TREND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THEN MUCH COOLER WEATHER OVERSPREADS THE
AREA MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH THE RISK OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

150 PM UPDATE...

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CONTINUE AT MID AFTERNOON.  LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...OTHER THAN A GRADUAL
THICKENING OF SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS IN UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST INCLUDING BOSTON.  HIGHS STILL SHOULD REACH INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY.  IN
BETWEEN THE COAST AND LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY...EXPECT HIGHS WELL UP
INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS E AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE W. WINDS
ENHANCE OUT OF THE E/SE AS CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS W NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING. YET BELIEVE LOW
MARINE STRATUS MAY BECOME AN ISSUE BEFOREHAND AS LONG E-FETCH OFF
THE WATERS COULD YIELD MOISTURE POOLING BENEATH THE DRY-INVERSION
PER LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE THAT CONDENSES WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING AS
WELL AS PROXIMITY OF COOLER WATERS. NOT THINKING SO MUCH FOG WITH
BRISK E/SE SURFACE WINDS BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. CHILLY OVER-
NIGHT WITH E/SE ONSHORE FLOW...LOWS AROUND THE UPPER-30S.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...

BREAKING THIS DOWN INTO TWO PARTS. THE FIRST PART BEING THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL WARM FRONT LIFTING NE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. SYNOPTIC
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE. DECENT H85-7 THETA-E
MOIST PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL ORIGINS FUNNELED N BY ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
LOW-LEVEL S-FLOW OF 50-60 KNOTS THE H925-85 CONVERGENT NOSE OF WHICH
IS COLLOCATED ALONG AND REARWARD OF THE WARM FRONT. PWATS UP TO 1.5-
INCHES...ROUGHLY AROUND +2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
MONTH OF APRIL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. COLLOCATION OF BEST INGREDIENTS
AROUND MID-MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING MONDAY DURING WHICH TIME THERE
IS THE EXPECTATION OF A BROAD SWATH OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SHOWERS. LACK OF INSTABILITY SO NOT THINKING ANY THUNDER. WARM FRONT
SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE WITH H85-3 30-40 KNOT S/SW-FLOW SO FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME THINKING AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND 0.75-INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE LOCALES
EXCEED AN INCH. BUT THIS IS OVER A NEARLY 12-HOUR PERIOD. EVALUATING
SREF PROBABILITIES ALONG WITH FORECAST THINKING...PERHAPS NUISANCE
URBAN FLOODING BUT A LOW RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. NO LONGER ANY SNOW
COVER EITHER...AND THERE IS A BREAK IN THE ACTION OUTLINED BELOW.

EXPECTING A LULL BETWEEN PARTS AS DRIER AIR ENTRAINS REARWARD OF THE
WARM FRONT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE FILLS BACK IN
AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH. ACCOMPANYING LEFT-
FRONT-QUADRANT OF A JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH HAS
THE POTENTIAL OF INVOKING A SURFACE REFLECTION OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE NE-CONUS...THAT OR STOUT BROADSCALE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. COLLOCATED
WEAK INSTABILITY / CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE...
AND THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONTINUED WET WEATHER WITH POTENTIAL
ELEVATED THUNDER. NOT ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN ON OUTCOMES BUT THE FORCING
SEEMS APPARENT WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO RESULT IN SOMETHING
AT LEAST SHOWERY...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN AND AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THUNDER. SHOWALTERS < 0 WITH TOTAL-TOTALS > 50
IN ADDITION TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. WILL GO CHANCE THUNDER. ONCE
AGAIN...NUISANCE FLOODING CONSIDERATIONS ESPECIALLY IN URBAN CENTERS
BUT LOW RISK FLASH FLOODING.

IN ALL LOOKING AT STORM-TOTAL RAINFALL FOR ROUGHLY A 24-HOUR PERIOD
OF 1.0-1.5 INCHES. WIDESPREAD RAIN. EMBEDDED HEAVY SHOWERS. CHANCE
THUNDER. SUBSEQUENT NUISANCE POOR-DRAINAGE FLOODING. BREEZY ONSHORE
SE-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35 MPH ALONG THE COAST. VISIBILITY
ISSUES WITH A COMBINATION OF FOG AND/OR HEAVY RAIN. FIRST SET OF
IMPACTS MID-MORNING INTO EVENING MONDAY...A LULL...THEN MORE WET WX
IS ANTICIPATED LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE THE UMBRELLA HANDY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TUE...SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS THEN AN AFTERNOON DRYING TREND
* WED-SAT...COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS...MAINLY DIURNAL

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM PHASES WITH SOUTHERN PLAINS CUTOFF LOW
TODAY TO FORM AN ANOMALOUS LOW/VORTEX OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUE.
THEREAFTER THIS UPPER LOW WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE AS HIGH LATITUDE
BLOCKING DEVELOPS WITH POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY EVOLVING OVER THE
SOUTHERN DAVIS STRAIT. THIS RESULTS IN A VERY SLOW MOVING VORTEX
FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WED TO ONLY ADVANCING EASTWARD INTO
MAINE BY NEXT WEEKEND! WHILE THIS SEEMS EXTREME IT/S DOES HAVE
SUPPORT FROM TELECONNECTIONS AS AO/NAO AND EPO AS ALL THREE INDICES
GO NEGATIVE. GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE WILL WORK BEST AS A BASELINE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

DAILY DETAILS...

TUESDAY...TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
INSTABILITY ALOFT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ELEVATED THUNDER. IF NOT AT
THE VERY LEAST THIS INSTABILITY WILL ENHANCE SHOWER INTENSITY AND
ASSOCIATED DOWNPOURS. BY AFTERNOON DRY SLOT WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY
AROUND THE SYSTEM AND INTO THE REGION. SO SUSPECT WITH DEEPENING DRY
LAYER AND COLD ADVECTION TUE AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE A DRYING TREND
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. IN ADDITION...MILD START TO THE DAY COMBINED
WITH BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE POSSIBLE AND WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 60S.

WED AND THU...WHILE BOTH ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF MID LEVEL CLOSED
LOW...AS EXPECTED MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE AMPLITUDE AND
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES CIRCULATE AROUND THE VORTEX. THUS
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING SHOWER THREAT THIS PERIOD. TRENDING COOLER
AS MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT ADVECT EASTWARD INTO
THE REGION. COOLER THU THAN WED.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ECENS/EPS SUGGEST CORE OF COLD AIR ALOFT
SETTLES OVER THE AREA AS MID LEVEL LOW TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN NY
STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH 850 TEMPS COOLING TO -2C TO
-5C! RISK OF SHOWERS TOO GIVEN COLD AIR AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MIX WITH SOME SNOW
AT TIMES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
DESPITE INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.

MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO
MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN.  IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST...AS HEAVIER RAIN WORKS INTO THE REGION.
THIS IN RESPONSE TO WIDESPREAD RAIN WORKING IN FROM THE WEST.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO GUST TO 30 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST BY
AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY LOW END MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS. PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AS AT LEAST
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION PROBABLY ENTERS THE WARM SECTOR.  A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...WITH THE HIGHEST RISK
ON THE SOUTH COAST NEAR THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET BUT THEY ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.  WHILE SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY GUST
TO 30 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST...LLWS OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS EXPECTED AT
2000 THOUSAND FEET WITH DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH 14Z MONDAY IN VFR CONDITIONS.
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SOME RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE TERMINAL
BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH 11 OR 12Z MONDAY IN VFR
CONDITIONS. MVFR CONDITIONS IN SOME RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
TERMINAL BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...SO UNCERTAINTY HOW QUICKLY CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. IFR/MVFR TUE AM IN SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
MVFR/VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH DRYING TREND.

WED AND THU...LOW CONFIDENCE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT AMPLITUDE
AND TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL COLD FRONTS AND ATTENDING SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 25
KNOTS ACROSS NANTUCKET SOUND AND POINTS SOUTHEAST.  THOUGHT ABOUT A
SHORT FUSED SMALL CRAFT HEADLINE...BUT SINCE WE HAVE LONG DURATION
HEADLINES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT OPTED TO LET IT GO SINCE WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH SOME OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ENHANCING SE-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS ACROSS THE WATERS BY MORNING. MARINE STRATUS DEVELOPING. MAYBE
SOME FOG ISSUES OVER THE WATERS. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FEET ON THE
S-WATERS.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SHOWERS. VSBY RESTRICTIONS SUBSEQUENTLY ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG.
E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ALONG THE COAST. LOW RISK OF
GALES ON THE E OUTER WATERS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FEET. UP TO 12 FEET ON
THE S OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS WITH THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY FOG AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS REMAIN AN
ISSUE. CONTINUED E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ALONG THE
COAST. LOW RISK OF GALES ON THE E OUTER WATERS. SEAS 10 TO 12 FEET
ON THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUE...STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MON NIGHT MOVING OFFSHORE...THUS WINDS
DIMINISHING THRU THE DAY. LEFTOVER SE SWELLS WILL REMAIN LARGE. HIGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

WED INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOMEWHAT DRIER WITH IMPROVED
VSBYS FROM TUE AM. ANY PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL AND IN THE FORM
OF SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND A PERIOD OF STRONG ONSHORE WINDS MAY
YIELD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE RI AND MA COASTLINE. HIGHEST
TIDE MON EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AROUND 11 PM SOUTH COAST AND 2 AM
EASTERN MA. AT THE MOMENT MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE GREATEST
WIND AND SURGE OCCURRING AROUND LOW TIDE MON EVENING. ALTHOUGH HAVE TO
WATCH THIS CLOSELY GIVEN ONLY 6 HR TIME DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LOW AND
HIGH TIDE.

ESTOFS APPEARED MORE REASONABLE AND BULLISH THAN ETSS WITH SURGE
VALUES MON AFTN AND EVENING 1.0 TO 1.5 FT. WAVE MODELS SUGGEST SEAS
NEAR SHORE WAVES 10-15 FT AT THIS TIME. LIKELY NOT SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT A WATCH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 191752
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
150 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MUCH COOLER WEATHER TODAY. A WIND
SWEPT SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND MILD TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING GIVE WAY TO A DRYING TREND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THEN MUCH COOLER WEATHER OVERSPREADS THE
AREA MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH THE RISK OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

150 PM UPDATE...

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CONTINUE AT MID AFTERNOON.  LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...OTHER THAN A GRADUAL
THICKENING OF SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS IN UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST INCLUDING BOSTON.  HIGHS STILL SHOULD REACH INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY.  IN
BETWEEN THE COAST AND LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY...EXPECT HIGHS WELL UP
INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS E AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE W. WINDS
ENHANCE OUT OF THE E/SE AS CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS W NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING. YET BELIEVE LOW
MARINE STRATUS MAY BECOME AN ISSUE BEFOREHAND AS LONG E-FETCH OFF
THE WATERS COULD YIELD MOISTURE POOLING BENEATH THE DRY-INVERSION
PER LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE THAT CONDENSES WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING AS
WELL AS PROXIMITY OF COOLER WATERS. NOT THINKING SO MUCH FOG WITH
BRISK E/SE SURFACE WINDS BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. CHILLY OVER-
NIGHT WITH E/SE ONSHORE FLOW...LOWS AROUND THE UPPER-30S.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...

BREAKING THIS DOWN INTO TWO PARTS. THE FIRST PART BEING THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL WARM FRONT LIFTING NE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. SYNOPTIC
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE. DECENT H85-7 THETA-E
MOIST PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL ORIGINS FUNNELED N BY ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
LOW-LEVEL S-FLOW OF 50-60 KNOTS THE H925-85 CONVERGENT NOSE OF WHICH
IS COLLOCATED ALONG AND REARWARD OF THE WARM FRONT. PWATS UP TO 1.5-
INCHES...ROUGHLY AROUND +2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
MONTH OF APRIL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. COLLOCATION OF BEST INGREDIENTS
AROUND MID-MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING MONDAY DURING WHICH TIME THERE
IS THE EXPECTATION OF A BROAD SWATH OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SHOWERS. LACK OF INSTABILITY SO NOT THINKING ANY THUNDER. WARM FRONT
SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE WITH H85-3 30-40 KNOT S/SW-FLOW SO FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME THINKING AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND 0.75-INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE LOCALES
EXCEED AN INCH. BUT THIS IS OVER A NEARLY 12-HOUR PERIOD. EVALUATING
SREF PROBABILITIES ALONG WITH FORECAST THINKING...PERHAPS NUISANCE
URBAN FLOODING BUT A LOW RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. NO LONGER ANY SNOW
COVER EITHER...AND THERE IS A BREAK IN THE ACTION OUTLINED BELOW.

EXPECTING A LULL BETWEEN PARTS AS DRIER AIR ENTRAINS REARWARD OF THE
WARM FRONT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE FILLS BACK IN
AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH. ACCOMPANYING LEFT-
FRONT-QUADRANT OF A JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH HAS
THE POTENTIAL OF INVOKING A SURFACE REFLECTION OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE NE-CONUS...THAT OR STOUT BROADSCALE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. COLLOCATED
WEAK INSTABILITY / CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE...
AND THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONTINUED WET WEATHER WITH POTENTIAL
ELEVATED THUNDER. NOT ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN ON OUTCOMES BUT THE FORCING
SEEMS APPARENT WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO RESULT IN SOMETHING
AT LEAST SHOWERY...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN AND AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THUNDER. SHOWALTERS < 0 WITH TOTAL-TOTALS > 50
IN ADDITION TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. WILL GO CHANCE THUNDER. ONCE
AGAIN...NUISANCE FLOODING CONSIDERATIONS ESPECIALLY IN URBAN CENTERS
BUT LOW RISK FLASH FLOODING.

IN ALL LOOKING AT STORM-TOTAL RAINFALL FOR ROUGHLY A 24-HOUR PERIOD
OF 1.0-1.5 INCHES. WIDESPREAD RAIN. EMBEDDED HEAVY SHOWERS. CHANCE
THUNDER. SUBSEQUENT NUISANCE POOR-DRAINAGE FLOODING. BREEZY ONSHORE
SE-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35 MPH ALONG THE COAST. VISIBILITY
ISSUES WITH A COMBINATION OF FOG AND/OR HEAVY RAIN. FIRST SET OF
IMPACTS MID-MORNING INTO EVENING MONDAY...A LULL...THEN MORE WET WX
IS ANTICIPATED LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE THE UMBRELLA HANDY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TUE...SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS THEN AN AFTERNOON DRYING TREND
* WED-SAT...COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS...MAINLY DIURNAL

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM PHASES WITH SOUTHERN PLAINS CUTOFF LOW
TODAY TO FORM AN ANOMALOUS LOW/VORTEX OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUE.
THEREAFTER THIS UPPER LOW WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE AS HIGH LATITUDE
BLOCKING DEVELOPS WITH POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY EVOLVING OVER THE
SOUTHERN DAVIS STRAIT. THIS RESULTS IN A VERY SLOW MOVING VORTEX
FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WED TO ONLY ADVANCING EASTWARD INTO
MAINE BY NEXT WEEKEND! WHILE THIS SEEMS EXTREME IT/S DOES HAVE
SUPPORT FROM TELECONNECTIONS AS AO/NAO AND EPO AS ALL THREE INDICES
GO NEGATIVE. GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE WILL WORK BEST AS A BASELINE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

DAILY DETAILS...

TUESDAY...TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
INSTABILITY ALOFT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ELEVATED THUNDER. IF NOT AT
THE VERY LEAST THIS INSTABILITY WILL ENHANCE SHOWER INTENSITY AND
ASSOCIATED DOWNPOURS. BY AFTERNOON DRY SLOT WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY
AROUND THE SYSTEM AND INTO THE REGION. SO SUSPECT WITH DEEPENING DRY
LAYER AND COLD ADVECTION TUE AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE A DRYING TREND
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. IN ADDITION...MILD START TO THE DAY COMBINED
WITH BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE POSSIBLE AND WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 60S.

WED AND THU...WHILE BOTH ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF MID LEVEL CLOSED
LOW...AS EXPECTED MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE AMPLITUDE AND
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES CIRCULATE AROUND THE VORTEX. THUS
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING SHOWER THREAT THIS PERIOD. TRENDING COOLER
AS MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT ADVECT EASTWARD INTO
THE REGION. COOLER THU THAN WED.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ECENS/EPS SUGGEST CORE OF COLD AIR ALOFT
SETTLES OVER THE AREA AS MID LEVEL LOW TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN NY
STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH 850 TEMPS COOLING TO -2C TO
-5C! RISK OF SHOWERS TOO GIVEN COLD AIR AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MIX WITH SOME SNOW
AT TIMES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
DESPITE INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.

MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO
MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN.  IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST...AS HEAVIER RAIN WORKS INTO THE REGION.
THIS IN RESPONSE TO WIDESPREAD RAIN WORKING IN FROM THE WEST.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO GUST TO 30 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST BY
AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY LOW END MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS. PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AS AT LEAST
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION PROBABLY ENTERS THE WARM SECTOR.  A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...WITH THE HIGHEST RISK
ON THE SOUTH COAST NEAR THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET BUT THEY ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.  WHILE SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY GUST
TO 30 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST...LLWS OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS EXPECTED AT
2000 THOUSAND FEET WITH DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH 14Z MONDAY IN VFR CONDITIONS.
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SOME RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE TERMINAL
BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH 11 OR 12Z MONDAY IN VFR
CONDITIONS. MVFR CONDITIONS IN SOME RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
TERMINAL BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...SO UNCERTAINTY HOW QUICKLY CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. IFR/MVFR TUE AM IN SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
MVFR/VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH DRYING TREND.

WED AND THU...LOW CONFIDENCE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT AMPLITUDE
AND TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL COLD FRONTS AND ATTENDING SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 25
KNOTS ACROSS NANTUCKET SOUND AND POINTS SOUTHEAST.  THOUGHT ABOUT A
SHORT FUSED SMALL CRAFT HEADLINE...BUT SINCE WE HAVE LONG DURATION
HEADLINES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT OPTED TO LET IT GO SINCE WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH SOME OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ENHANCING SE-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS ACROSS THE WATERS BY MORNING. MARINE STRATUS DEVELOPING. MAYBE
SOME FOG ISSUES OVER THE WATERS. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FEET ON THE
S-WATERS.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SHOWERS. VSBY RESTRICTIONS SUBSEQUENTLY ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG.
E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ALONG THE COAST. LOW RISK OF
GALES ON THE E OUTER WATERS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FEET. UP TO 12 FEET ON
THE S OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS WITH THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY FOG AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS REMAIN AN
ISSUE. CONTINUED E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ALONG THE
COAST. LOW RISK OF GALES ON THE E OUTER WATERS. SEAS 10 TO 12 FEET
ON THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUE...STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MON NIGHT MOVING OFFSHORE...THUS WINDS
DIMINISHING THRU THE DAY. LEFTOVER SE SWELLS WILL REMAIN LARGE. HIGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

WED INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOMEWHAT DRIER WITH IMPROVED
VSBYS FROM TUE AM. ANY PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL AND IN THE FORM
OF SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND A PERIOD OF STRONG ONSHORE WINDS MAY
YIELD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE RI AND MA COASTLINE. HIGHEST
TIDE MON EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AROUND 11 PM SOUTH COAST AND 2 AM
EASTERN MA. AT THE MOMENT MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE GREATEST
WIND AND SURGE OCCURRING AROUND LOW TIDE MON EVENING. ALTHOUGH HAVE TO
WATCH THIS CLOSELY GIVEN ONLY 6 HR TIME DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LOW AND
HIGH TIDE.

ESTOFS APPEARED MORE REASONABLE AND BULLISH THAN ETSS WITH SURGE
VALUES MON AFTN AND EVENING 1.0 TO 1.5 FT. WAVE MODELS SUGGEST SEAS
NEAR SHORE WAVES 10-15 FT AT THIS TIME. LIKELY NOT SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT A WATCH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 191752
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
150 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MUCH COOLER WEATHER TODAY. A WIND
SWEPT SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND MILD TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING GIVE WAY TO A DRYING TREND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THEN MUCH COOLER WEATHER OVERSPREADS THE
AREA MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH THE RISK OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

150 PM UPDATE...

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CONTINUE AT MID AFTERNOON.  LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...OTHER THAN A GRADUAL
THICKENING OF SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS IN UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST INCLUDING BOSTON.  HIGHS STILL SHOULD REACH INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY.  IN
BETWEEN THE COAST AND LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY...EXPECT HIGHS WELL UP
INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS E AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE W. WINDS
ENHANCE OUT OF THE E/SE AS CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS W NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING. YET BELIEVE LOW
MARINE STRATUS MAY BECOME AN ISSUE BEFOREHAND AS LONG E-FETCH OFF
THE WATERS COULD YIELD MOISTURE POOLING BENEATH THE DRY-INVERSION
PER LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE THAT CONDENSES WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING AS
WELL AS PROXIMITY OF COOLER WATERS. NOT THINKING SO MUCH FOG WITH
BRISK E/SE SURFACE WINDS BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. CHILLY OVER-
NIGHT WITH E/SE ONSHORE FLOW...LOWS AROUND THE UPPER-30S.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...

BREAKING THIS DOWN INTO TWO PARTS. THE FIRST PART BEING THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL WARM FRONT LIFTING NE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. SYNOPTIC
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE. DECENT H85-7 THETA-E
MOIST PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL ORIGINS FUNNELED N BY ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
LOW-LEVEL S-FLOW OF 50-60 KNOTS THE H925-85 CONVERGENT NOSE OF WHICH
IS COLLOCATED ALONG AND REARWARD OF THE WARM FRONT. PWATS UP TO 1.5-
INCHES...ROUGHLY AROUND +2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
MONTH OF APRIL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. COLLOCATION OF BEST INGREDIENTS
AROUND MID-MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING MONDAY DURING WHICH TIME THERE
IS THE EXPECTATION OF A BROAD SWATH OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SHOWERS. LACK OF INSTABILITY SO NOT THINKING ANY THUNDER. WARM FRONT
SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE WITH H85-3 30-40 KNOT S/SW-FLOW SO FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME THINKING AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND 0.75-INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE LOCALES
EXCEED AN INCH. BUT THIS IS OVER A NEARLY 12-HOUR PERIOD. EVALUATING
SREF PROBABILITIES ALONG WITH FORECAST THINKING...PERHAPS NUISANCE
URBAN FLOODING BUT A LOW RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. NO LONGER ANY SNOW
COVER EITHER...AND THERE IS A BREAK IN THE ACTION OUTLINED BELOW.

EXPECTING A LULL BETWEEN PARTS AS DRIER AIR ENTRAINS REARWARD OF THE
WARM FRONT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE FILLS BACK IN
AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH. ACCOMPANYING LEFT-
FRONT-QUADRANT OF A JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH HAS
THE POTENTIAL OF INVOKING A SURFACE REFLECTION OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE NE-CONUS...THAT OR STOUT BROADSCALE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. COLLOCATED
WEAK INSTABILITY / CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE...
AND THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONTINUED WET WEATHER WITH POTENTIAL
ELEVATED THUNDER. NOT ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN ON OUTCOMES BUT THE FORCING
SEEMS APPARENT WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO RESULT IN SOMETHING
AT LEAST SHOWERY...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN AND AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THUNDER. SHOWALTERS < 0 WITH TOTAL-TOTALS > 50
IN ADDITION TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. WILL GO CHANCE THUNDER. ONCE
AGAIN...NUISANCE FLOODING CONSIDERATIONS ESPECIALLY IN URBAN CENTERS
BUT LOW RISK FLASH FLOODING.

IN ALL LOOKING AT STORM-TOTAL RAINFALL FOR ROUGHLY A 24-HOUR PERIOD
OF 1.0-1.5 INCHES. WIDESPREAD RAIN. EMBEDDED HEAVY SHOWERS. CHANCE
THUNDER. SUBSEQUENT NUISANCE POOR-DRAINAGE FLOODING. BREEZY ONSHORE
SE-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35 MPH ALONG THE COAST. VISIBILITY
ISSUES WITH A COMBINATION OF FOG AND/OR HEAVY RAIN. FIRST SET OF
IMPACTS MID-MORNING INTO EVENING MONDAY...A LULL...THEN MORE WET WX
IS ANTICIPATED LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE THE UMBRELLA HANDY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TUE...SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS THEN AN AFTERNOON DRYING TREND
* WED-SAT...COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS...MAINLY DIURNAL

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM PHASES WITH SOUTHERN PLAINS CUTOFF LOW
TODAY TO FORM AN ANOMALOUS LOW/VORTEX OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUE.
THEREAFTER THIS UPPER LOW WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE AS HIGH LATITUDE
BLOCKING DEVELOPS WITH POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY EVOLVING OVER THE
SOUTHERN DAVIS STRAIT. THIS RESULTS IN A VERY SLOW MOVING VORTEX
FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WED TO ONLY ADVANCING EASTWARD INTO
MAINE BY NEXT WEEKEND! WHILE THIS SEEMS EXTREME IT/S DOES HAVE
SUPPORT FROM TELECONNECTIONS AS AO/NAO AND EPO AS ALL THREE INDICES
GO NEGATIVE. GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE WILL WORK BEST AS A BASELINE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

DAILY DETAILS...

TUESDAY...TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
INSTABILITY ALOFT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ELEVATED THUNDER. IF NOT AT
THE VERY LEAST THIS INSTABILITY WILL ENHANCE SHOWER INTENSITY AND
ASSOCIATED DOWNPOURS. BY AFTERNOON DRY SLOT WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY
AROUND THE SYSTEM AND INTO THE REGION. SO SUSPECT WITH DEEPENING DRY
LAYER AND COLD ADVECTION TUE AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE A DRYING TREND
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. IN ADDITION...MILD START TO THE DAY COMBINED
WITH BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE POSSIBLE AND WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 60S.

WED AND THU...WHILE BOTH ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF MID LEVEL CLOSED
LOW...AS EXPECTED MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE AMPLITUDE AND
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES CIRCULATE AROUND THE VORTEX. THUS
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING SHOWER THREAT THIS PERIOD. TRENDING COOLER
AS MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT ADVECT EASTWARD INTO
THE REGION. COOLER THU THAN WED.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ECENS/EPS SUGGEST CORE OF COLD AIR ALOFT
SETTLES OVER THE AREA AS MID LEVEL LOW TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN NY
STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH 850 TEMPS COOLING TO -2C TO
-5C! RISK OF SHOWERS TOO GIVEN COLD AIR AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MIX WITH SOME SNOW
AT TIMES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
DESPITE INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.

MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO
MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN.  IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST...AS HEAVIER RAIN WORKS INTO THE REGION.
THIS IN RESPONSE TO WIDESPREAD RAIN WORKING IN FROM THE WEST.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO GUST TO 30 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST BY
AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY LOW END MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS. PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AS AT LEAST
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION PROBABLY ENTERS THE WARM SECTOR.  A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...WITH THE HIGHEST RISK
ON THE SOUTH COAST NEAR THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET BUT THEY ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.  WHILE SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY GUST
TO 30 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST...LLWS OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS EXPECTED AT
2000 THOUSAND FEET WITH DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH 14Z MONDAY IN VFR CONDITIONS.
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SOME RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE TERMINAL
BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH 11 OR 12Z MONDAY IN VFR
CONDITIONS. MVFR CONDITIONS IN SOME RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
TERMINAL BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...SO UNCERTAINTY HOW QUICKLY CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. IFR/MVFR TUE AM IN SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
MVFR/VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH DRYING TREND.

WED AND THU...LOW CONFIDENCE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT AMPLITUDE
AND TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL COLD FRONTS AND ATTENDING SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 25
KNOTS ACROSS NANTUCKET SOUND AND POINTS SOUTHEAST.  THOUGHT ABOUT A
SHORT FUSED SMALL CRAFT HEADLINE...BUT SINCE WE HAVE LONG DURATION
HEADLINES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT OPTED TO LET IT GO SINCE WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH SOME OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ENHANCING SE-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS ACROSS THE WATERS BY MORNING. MARINE STRATUS DEVELOPING. MAYBE
SOME FOG ISSUES OVER THE WATERS. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FEET ON THE
S-WATERS.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SHOWERS. VSBY RESTRICTIONS SUBSEQUENTLY ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG.
E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ALONG THE COAST. LOW RISK OF
GALES ON THE E OUTER WATERS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FEET. UP TO 12 FEET ON
THE S OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS WITH THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY FOG AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS REMAIN AN
ISSUE. CONTINUED E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ALONG THE
COAST. LOW RISK OF GALES ON THE E OUTER WATERS. SEAS 10 TO 12 FEET
ON THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUE...STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MON NIGHT MOVING OFFSHORE...THUS WINDS
DIMINISHING THRU THE DAY. LEFTOVER SE SWELLS WILL REMAIN LARGE. HIGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

WED INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOMEWHAT DRIER WITH IMPROVED
VSBYS FROM TUE AM. ANY PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL AND IN THE FORM
OF SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND A PERIOD OF STRONG ONSHORE WINDS MAY
YIELD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE RI AND MA COASTLINE. HIGHEST
TIDE MON EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AROUND 11 PM SOUTH COAST AND 2 AM
EASTERN MA. AT THE MOMENT MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE GREATEST
WIND AND SURGE OCCURRING AROUND LOW TIDE MON EVENING. ALTHOUGH HAVE TO
WATCH THIS CLOSELY GIVEN ONLY 6 HR TIME DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LOW AND
HIGH TIDE.

ESTOFS APPEARED MORE REASONABLE AND BULLISH THAN ETSS WITH SURGE
VALUES MON AFTN AND EVENING 1.0 TO 1.5 FT. WAVE MODELS SUGGEST SEAS
NEAR SHORE WAVES 10-15 FT AT THIS TIME. LIKELY NOT SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT A WATCH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 191752
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
150 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MUCH COOLER WEATHER TODAY. A WIND
SWEPT SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND MILD TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING GIVE WAY TO A DRYING TREND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THEN MUCH COOLER WEATHER OVERSPREADS THE
AREA MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH THE RISK OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

150 PM UPDATE...

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CONTINUE AT MID AFTERNOON.  LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...OTHER THAN A GRADUAL
THICKENING OF SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS IN UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST INCLUDING BOSTON.  HIGHS STILL SHOULD REACH INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY.  IN
BETWEEN THE COAST AND LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY...EXPECT HIGHS WELL UP
INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS E AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE W. WINDS
ENHANCE OUT OF THE E/SE AS CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS W NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING. YET BELIEVE LOW
MARINE STRATUS MAY BECOME AN ISSUE BEFOREHAND AS LONG E-FETCH OFF
THE WATERS COULD YIELD MOISTURE POOLING BENEATH THE DRY-INVERSION
PER LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE THAT CONDENSES WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING AS
WELL AS PROXIMITY OF COOLER WATERS. NOT THINKING SO MUCH FOG WITH
BRISK E/SE SURFACE WINDS BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. CHILLY OVER-
NIGHT WITH E/SE ONSHORE FLOW...LOWS AROUND THE UPPER-30S.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...

BREAKING THIS DOWN INTO TWO PARTS. THE FIRST PART BEING THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL WARM FRONT LIFTING NE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. SYNOPTIC
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE. DECENT H85-7 THETA-E
MOIST PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL ORIGINS FUNNELED N BY ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
LOW-LEVEL S-FLOW OF 50-60 KNOTS THE H925-85 CONVERGENT NOSE OF WHICH
IS COLLOCATED ALONG AND REARWARD OF THE WARM FRONT. PWATS UP TO 1.5-
INCHES...ROUGHLY AROUND +2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
MONTH OF APRIL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. COLLOCATION OF BEST INGREDIENTS
AROUND MID-MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING MONDAY DURING WHICH TIME THERE
IS THE EXPECTATION OF A BROAD SWATH OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SHOWERS. LACK OF INSTABILITY SO NOT THINKING ANY THUNDER. WARM FRONT
SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE WITH H85-3 30-40 KNOT S/SW-FLOW SO FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME THINKING AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND 0.75-INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE LOCALES
EXCEED AN INCH. BUT THIS IS OVER A NEARLY 12-HOUR PERIOD. EVALUATING
SREF PROBABILITIES ALONG WITH FORECAST THINKING...PERHAPS NUISANCE
URBAN FLOODING BUT A LOW RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. NO LONGER ANY SNOW
COVER EITHER...AND THERE IS A BREAK IN THE ACTION OUTLINED BELOW.

EXPECTING A LULL BETWEEN PARTS AS DRIER AIR ENTRAINS REARWARD OF THE
WARM FRONT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE FILLS BACK IN
AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH. ACCOMPANYING LEFT-
FRONT-QUADRANT OF A JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH HAS
THE POTENTIAL OF INVOKING A SURFACE REFLECTION OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE NE-CONUS...THAT OR STOUT BROADSCALE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. COLLOCATED
WEAK INSTABILITY / CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE...
AND THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONTINUED WET WEATHER WITH POTENTIAL
ELEVATED THUNDER. NOT ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN ON OUTCOMES BUT THE FORCING
SEEMS APPARENT WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO RESULT IN SOMETHING
AT LEAST SHOWERY...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN AND AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THUNDER. SHOWALTERS < 0 WITH TOTAL-TOTALS > 50
IN ADDITION TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. WILL GO CHANCE THUNDER. ONCE
AGAIN...NUISANCE FLOODING CONSIDERATIONS ESPECIALLY IN URBAN CENTERS
BUT LOW RISK FLASH FLOODING.

IN ALL LOOKING AT STORM-TOTAL RAINFALL FOR ROUGHLY A 24-HOUR PERIOD
OF 1.0-1.5 INCHES. WIDESPREAD RAIN. EMBEDDED HEAVY SHOWERS. CHANCE
THUNDER. SUBSEQUENT NUISANCE POOR-DRAINAGE FLOODING. BREEZY ONSHORE
SE-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35 MPH ALONG THE COAST. VISIBILITY
ISSUES WITH A COMBINATION OF FOG AND/OR HEAVY RAIN. FIRST SET OF
IMPACTS MID-MORNING INTO EVENING MONDAY...A LULL...THEN MORE WET WX
IS ANTICIPATED LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE THE UMBRELLA HANDY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TUE...SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS THEN AN AFTERNOON DRYING TREND
* WED-SAT...COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS...MAINLY DIURNAL

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM PHASES WITH SOUTHERN PLAINS CUTOFF LOW
TODAY TO FORM AN ANOMALOUS LOW/VORTEX OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUE.
THEREAFTER THIS UPPER LOW WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE AS HIGH LATITUDE
BLOCKING DEVELOPS WITH POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY EVOLVING OVER THE
SOUTHERN DAVIS STRAIT. THIS RESULTS IN A VERY SLOW MOVING VORTEX
FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WED TO ONLY ADVANCING EASTWARD INTO
MAINE BY NEXT WEEKEND! WHILE THIS SEEMS EXTREME IT/S DOES HAVE
SUPPORT FROM TELECONNECTIONS AS AO/NAO AND EPO AS ALL THREE INDICES
GO NEGATIVE. GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE WILL WORK BEST AS A BASELINE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

DAILY DETAILS...

TUESDAY...TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
INSTABILITY ALOFT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ELEVATED THUNDER. IF NOT AT
THE VERY LEAST THIS INSTABILITY WILL ENHANCE SHOWER INTENSITY AND
ASSOCIATED DOWNPOURS. BY AFTERNOON DRY SLOT WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY
AROUND THE SYSTEM AND INTO THE REGION. SO SUSPECT WITH DEEPENING DRY
LAYER AND COLD ADVECTION TUE AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE A DRYING TREND
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. IN ADDITION...MILD START TO THE DAY COMBINED
WITH BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE POSSIBLE AND WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 60S.

WED AND THU...WHILE BOTH ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF MID LEVEL CLOSED
LOW...AS EXPECTED MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE AMPLITUDE AND
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES CIRCULATE AROUND THE VORTEX. THUS
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING SHOWER THREAT THIS PERIOD. TRENDING COOLER
AS MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT ADVECT EASTWARD INTO
THE REGION. COOLER THU THAN WED.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ECENS/EPS SUGGEST CORE OF COLD AIR ALOFT
SETTLES OVER THE AREA AS MID LEVEL LOW TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN NY
STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH 850 TEMPS COOLING TO -2C TO
-5C! RISK OF SHOWERS TOO GIVEN COLD AIR AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MIX WITH SOME SNOW
AT TIMES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
DESPITE INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.

MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO
MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN.  IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST...AS HEAVIER RAIN WORKS INTO THE REGION.
THIS IN RESPONSE TO WIDESPREAD RAIN WORKING IN FROM THE WEST.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO GUST TO 30 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST BY
AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY LOW END MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS. PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AS AT LEAST
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION PROBABLY ENTERS THE WARM SECTOR.  A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...WITH THE HIGHEST RISK
ON THE SOUTH COAST NEAR THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET BUT THEY ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.  WHILE SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY GUST
TO 30 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST...LLWS OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS EXPECTED AT
2000 THOUSAND FEET WITH DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH 14Z MONDAY IN VFR CONDITIONS.
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SOME RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE TERMINAL
BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH 11 OR 12Z MONDAY IN VFR
CONDITIONS. MVFR CONDITIONS IN SOME RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
TERMINAL BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...SO UNCERTAINTY HOW QUICKLY CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. IFR/MVFR TUE AM IN SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
MVFR/VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH DRYING TREND.

WED AND THU...LOW CONFIDENCE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT AMPLITUDE
AND TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL COLD FRONTS AND ATTENDING SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 25
KNOTS ACROSS NANTUCKET SOUND AND POINTS SOUTHEAST.  THOUGHT ABOUT A
SHORT FUSED SMALL CRAFT HEADLINE...BUT SINCE WE HAVE LONG DURATION
HEADLINES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT OPTED TO LET IT GO SINCE WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH SOME OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ENHANCING SE-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS ACROSS THE WATERS BY MORNING. MARINE STRATUS DEVELOPING. MAYBE
SOME FOG ISSUES OVER THE WATERS. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FEET ON THE
S-WATERS.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SHOWERS. VSBY RESTRICTIONS SUBSEQUENTLY ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG.
E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ALONG THE COAST. LOW RISK OF
GALES ON THE E OUTER WATERS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FEET. UP TO 12 FEET ON
THE S OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS WITH THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY FOG AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS REMAIN AN
ISSUE. CONTINUED E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ALONG THE
COAST. LOW RISK OF GALES ON THE E OUTER WATERS. SEAS 10 TO 12 FEET
ON THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUE...STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MON NIGHT MOVING OFFSHORE...THUS WINDS
DIMINISHING THRU THE DAY. LEFTOVER SE SWELLS WILL REMAIN LARGE. HIGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

WED INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOMEWHAT DRIER WITH IMPROVED
VSBYS FROM TUE AM. ANY PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL AND IN THE FORM
OF SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND A PERIOD OF STRONG ONSHORE WINDS MAY
YIELD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE RI AND MA COASTLINE. HIGHEST
TIDE MON EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AROUND 11 PM SOUTH COAST AND 2 AM
EASTERN MA. AT THE MOMENT MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE GREATEST
WIND AND SURGE OCCURRING AROUND LOW TIDE MON EVENING. ALTHOUGH HAVE TO
WATCH THIS CLOSELY GIVEN ONLY 6 HR TIME DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LOW AND
HIGH TIDE.

ESTOFS APPEARED MORE REASONABLE AND BULLISH THAN ETSS WITH SURGE
VALUES MON AFTN AND EVENING 1.0 TO 1.5 FT. WAVE MODELS SUGGEST SEAS
NEAR SHORE WAVES 10-15 FT AT THIS TIME. LIKELY NOT SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT A WATCH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 191752
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
150 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MUCH COOLER WEATHER TODAY. A WIND
SWEPT SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND MILD TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING GIVE WAY TO A DRYING TREND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THEN MUCH COOLER WEATHER OVERSPREADS THE
AREA MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH THE RISK OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

150 PM UPDATE...

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CONTINUE AT MID AFTERNOON.  LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...OTHER THAN A GRADUAL
THICKENING OF SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS IN UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST INCLUDING BOSTON.  HIGHS STILL SHOULD REACH INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY.  IN
BETWEEN THE COAST AND LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY...EXPECT HIGHS WELL UP
INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS E AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE W. WINDS
ENHANCE OUT OF THE E/SE AS CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS W NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING. YET BELIEVE LOW
MARINE STRATUS MAY BECOME AN ISSUE BEFOREHAND AS LONG E-FETCH OFF
THE WATERS COULD YIELD MOISTURE POOLING BENEATH THE DRY-INVERSION
PER LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE THAT CONDENSES WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING AS
WELL AS PROXIMITY OF COOLER WATERS. NOT THINKING SO MUCH FOG WITH
BRISK E/SE SURFACE WINDS BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. CHILLY OVER-
NIGHT WITH E/SE ONSHORE FLOW...LOWS AROUND THE UPPER-30S.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...

BREAKING THIS DOWN INTO TWO PARTS. THE FIRST PART BEING THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL WARM FRONT LIFTING NE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. SYNOPTIC
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE. DECENT H85-7 THETA-E
MOIST PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL ORIGINS FUNNELED N BY ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
LOW-LEVEL S-FLOW OF 50-60 KNOTS THE H925-85 CONVERGENT NOSE OF WHICH
IS COLLOCATED ALONG AND REARWARD OF THE WARM FRONT. PWATS UP TO 1.5-
INCHES...ROUGHLY AROUND +2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
MONTH OF APRIL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. COLLOCATION OF BEST INGREDIENTS
AROUND MID-MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING MONDAY DURING WHICH TIME THERE
IS THE EXPECTATION OF A BROAD SWATH OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SHOWERS. LACK OF INSTABILITY SO NOT THINKING ANY THUNDER. WARM FRONT
SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE WITH H85-3 30-40 KNOT S/SW-FLOW SO FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME THINKING AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND 0.75-INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE LOCALES
EXCEED AN INCH. BUT THIS IS OVER A NEARLY 12-HOUR PERIOD. EVALUATING
SREF PROBABILITIES ALONG WITH FORECAST THINKING...PERHAPS NUISANCE
URBAN FLOODING BUT A LOW RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. NO LONGER ANY SNOW
COVER EITHER...AND THERE IS A BREAK IN THE ACTION OUTLINED BELOW.

EXPECTING A LULL BETWEEN PARTS AS DRIER AIR ENTRAINS REARWARD OF THE
WARM FRONT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE FILLS BACK IN
AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH. ACCOMPANYING LEFT-
FRONT-QUADRANT OF A JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH HAS
THE POTENTIAL OF INVOKING A SURFACE REFLECTION OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE NE-CONUS...THAT OR STOUT BROADSCALE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. COLLOCATED
WEAK INSTABILITY / CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE...
AND THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONTINUED WET WEATHER WITH POTENTIAL
ELEVATED THUNDER. NOT ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN ON OUTCOMES BUT THE FORCING
SEEMS APPARENT WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO RESULT IN SOMETHING
AT LEAST SHOWERY...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN AND AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THUNDER. SHOWALTERS < 0 WITH TOTAL-TOTALS > 50
IN ADDITION TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. WILL GO CHANCE THUNDER. ONCE
AGAIN...NUISANCE FLOODING CONSIDERATIONS ESPECIALLY IN URBAN CENTERS
BUT LOW RISK FLASH FLOODING.

IN ALL LOOKING AT STORM-TOTAL RAINFALL FOR ROUGHLY A 24-HOUR PERIOD
OF 1.0-1.5 INCHES. WIDESPREAD RAIN. EMBEDDED HEAVY SHOWERS. CHANCE
THUNDER. SUBSEQUENT NUISANCE POOR-DRAINAGE FLOODING. BREEZY ONSHORE
SE-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35 MPH ALONG THE COAST. VISIBILITY
ISSUES WITH A COMBINATION OF FOG AND/OR HEAVY RAIN. FIRST SET OF
IMPACTS MID-MORNING INTO EVENING MONDAY...A LULL...THEN MORE WET WX
IS ANTICIPATED LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE THE UMBRELLA HANDY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TUE...SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS THEN AN AFTERNOON DRYING TREND
* WED-SAT...COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS...MAINLY DIURNAL

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM PHASES WITH SOUTHERN PLAINS CUTOFF LOW
TODAY TO FORM AN ANOMALOUS LOW/VORTEX OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUE.
THEREAFTER THIS UPPER LOW WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE AS HIGH LATITUDE
BLOCKING DEVELOPS WITH POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY EVOLVING OVER THE
SOUTHERN DAVIS STRAIT. THIS RESULTS IN A VERY SLOW MOVING VORTEX
FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WED TO ONLY ADVANCING EASTWARD INTO
MAINE BY NEXT WEEKEND! WHILE THIS SEEMS EXTREME IT/S DOES HAVE
SUPPORT FROM TELECONNECTIONS AS AO/NAO AND EPO AS ALL THREE INDICES
GO NEGATIVE. GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE WILL WORK BEST AS A BASELINE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

DAILY DETAILS...

TUESDAY...TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
INSTABILITY ALOFT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ELEVATED THUNDER. IF NOT AT
THE VERY LEAST THIS INSTABILITY WILL ENHANCE SHOWER INTENSITY AND
ASSOCIATED DOWNPOURS. BY AFTERNOON DRY SLOT WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY
AROUND THE SYSTEM AND INTO THE REGION. SO SUSPECT WITH DEEPENING DRY
LAYER AND COLD ADVECTION TUE AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE A DRYING TREND
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. IN ADDITION...MILD START TO THE DAY COMBINED
WITH BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE POSSIBLE AND WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 60S.

WED AND THU...WHILE BOTH ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF MID LEVEL CLOSED
LOW...AS EXPECTED MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE AMPLITUDE AND
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES CIRCULATE AROUND THE VORTEX. THUS
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING SHOWER THREAT THIS PERIOD. TRENDING COOLER
AS MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT ADVECT EASTWARD INTO
THE REGION. COOLER THU THAN WED.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ECENS/EPS SUGGEST CORE OF COLD AIR ALOFT
SETTLES OVER THE AREA AS MID LEVEL LOW TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN NY
STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH 850 TEMPS COOLING TO -2C TO
-5C! RISK OF SHOWERS TOO GIVEN COLD AIR AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MIX WITH SOME SNOW
AT TIMES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
DESPITE INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.

MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO
MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN.  IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST...AS HEAVIER RAIN WORKS INTO THE REGION.
THIS IN RESPONSE TO WIDESPREAD RAIN WORKING IN FROM THE WEST.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO GUST TO 30 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST BY
AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY LOW END MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS. PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AS AT LEAST
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION PROBABLY ENTERS THE WARM SECTOR.  A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...WITH THE HIGHEST RISK
ON THE SOUTH COAST NEAR THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET BUT THEY ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.  WHILE SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY GUST
TO 30 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST...LLWS OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS EXPECTED AT
2000 THOUSAND FEET WITH DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH 14Z MONDAY IN VFR CONDITIONS.
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SOME RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE TERMINAL
BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH 11 OR 12Z MONDAY IN VFR
CONDITIONS. MVFR CONDITIONS IN SOME RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
TERMINAL BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...SO UNCERTAINTY HOW QUICKLY CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. IFR/MVFR TUE AM IN SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
MVFR/VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH DRYING TREND.

WED AND THU...LOW CONFIDENCE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT AMPLITUDE
AND TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL COLD FRONTS AND ATTENDING SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 25
KNOTS ACROSS NANTUCKET SOUND AND POINTS SOUTHEAST.  THOUGHT ABOUT A
SHORT FUSED SMALL CRAFT HEADLINE...BUT SINCE WE HAVE LONG DURATION
HEADLINES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT OPTED TO LET IT GO SINCE WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH SOME OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ENHANCING SE-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS ACROSS THE WATERS BY MORNING. MARINE STRATUS DEVELOPING. MAYBE
SOME FOG ISSUES OVER THE WATERS. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FEET ON THE
S-WATERS.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SHOWERS. VSBY RESTRICTIONS SUBSEQUENTLY ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG.
E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ALONG THE COAST. LOW RISK OF
GALES ON THE E OUTER WATERS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FEET. UP TO 12 FEET ON
THE S OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS WITH THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY FOG AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS REMAIN AN
ISSUE. CONTINUED E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ALONG THE
COAST. LOW RISK OF GALES ON THE E OUTER WATERS. SEAS 10 TO 12 FEET
ON THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUE...STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MON NIGHT MOVING OFFSHORE...THUS WINDS
DIMINISHING THRU THE DAY. LEFTOVER SE SWELLS WILL REMAIN LARGE. HIGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

WED INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOMEWHAT DRIER WITH IMPROVED
VSBYS FROM TUE AM. ANY PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL AND IN THE FORM
OF SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND A PERIOD OF STRONG ONSHORE WINDS MAY
YIELD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE RI AND MA COASTLINE. HIGHEST
TIDE MON EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AROUND 11 PM SOUTH COAST AND 2 AM
EASTERN MA. AT THE MOMENT MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE GREATEST
WIND AND SURGE OCCURRING AROUND LOW TIDE MON EVENING. ALTHOUGH HAVE TO
WATCH THIS CLOSELY GIVEN ONLY 6 HR TIME DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LOW AND
HIGH TIDE.

ESTOFS APPEARED MORE REASONABLE AND BULLISH THAN ETSS WITH SURGE
VALUES MON AFTN AND EVENING 1.0 TO 1.5 FT. WAVE MODELS SUGGEST SEAS
NEAR SHORE WAVES 10-15 FT AT THIS TIME. LIKELY NOT SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT A WATCH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 191358
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1000 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MUCH COOLER WEATHER TODAY. A WIND
SWEPT SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND MILD TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING GIVE WAY TO A DRYING TREND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THEN MUCH COOLER WEATHER OVERSPREADS THE
AREA MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH THE RISK OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL GENERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  DESPITE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...ONSHORE FLOW THIS TIME OF YEAR MEANS HIGHS WILL HOLD IN
THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST INCLUDING
BOSTON.  IT WILL TURN MILDER THE FURTHER AWAY YOU GET FROM THE
OCEAN...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S
ACROSS THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY.  IN BETWEEN THE COAST AND
LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY...EXPECT HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS E AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE W. WINDS
ENHANCE OUT OF THE E/SE AS CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS W NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING. YET BELIEVE LOW
MARINE STRATUS MAY BECOME AN ISSUE BEFOREHAND AS LONG E-FETCH OFF
THE WATERS COULD YIELD MOISTURE POOLING BENEATH THE DRY-INVERSION
PER LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE THAT CONDENSES WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING AS
WELL AS PROXIMITY OF COOLER WATERS. NOT THINKING SO MUCH FOG WITH
BRISK E/SE SURFACE WINDS BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. CHILLY OVER-
NIGHT WITH E/SE ONSHORE FLOW...LOWS AROUND THE UPPER-30S.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...

BREAKING THIS DOWN INTO TWO PARTS. THE FIRST PART BEING THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL WARM FRONT LIFTING NE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. SYNOPTIC
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE. DECENT H85-7 THETA-E
MOIST PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL ORIGINS FUNNELED N BY ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
LOW-LEVEL S-FLOW OF 50-60 KNOTS THE H925-85 CONVERGENT NOSE OF WHICH
IS COLLOCATED ALONG AND REARWARD OF THE WARM FRONT. PWATS UP TO 1.5-
INCHES...ROUGHLY AROUND +2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
MONTH OF APRIL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. COLLOCATION OF BEST INGREDIENTS
AROUND MID-MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING MONDAY DURING WHICH TIME THERE
IS THE EXPECTATION OF A BROAD SWATH OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SHOWERS. LACK OF INSTABILITY SO NOT THINKING ANY THUNDER. WARM FRONT
SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE WITH H85-3 30-40 KNOT S/SW-FLOW SO FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME THINKING AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND 0.75-INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE LOCALES
EXCEED AN INCH. BUT THIS IS OVER A NEARLY 12-HOUR PERIOD. EVALUATING
SREF PROBABILITIES ALONG WITH FORECAST THINKING...PERHAPS NUISANCE
URBAN FLOODING BUT A LOW RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. NO LONGER ANY SNOW
COVER EITHER...AND THERE IS A BREAK IN THE ACTION OUTLINED BELOW.

EXPECTING A LULL BETWEEN PARTS AS DRIER AIR ENTRAINS REARWARD OF THE
WARM FRONT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE FILLS BACK IN
AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH. ACCOMPANYING LEFT-
FRONT-QUADRANT OF A JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH HAS
THE POTENTIAL OF INVOKING A SURFACE REFLECTION OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE NE-CONUS...THAT OR STOUT BROADSCALE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. COLLOCATED
WEAK INSTABILITY / CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE...
AND THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONTINUED WET WEATHER WITH POTENTIAL
ELEVATED THUNDER. NOT ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN ON OUTCOMES BUT THE FORCING
SEEMS APPARENT WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO RESULT IN SOMETHING
AT LEAST SHOWERY...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN AND AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THUNDER. SHOWALTERS < 0 WITH TOTAL-TOTALS > 50
IN ADDITION TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. WILL GO CHANCE THUNDER. ONCE
AGAIN...NUISANCE FLOODING CONSIDERATIONS ESPECIALLY IN URBAN CENTERS
BUT LOW RISK FLASH FLOODING.

IN ALL LOOKING AT STORM-TOTAL RAINFALL FOR ROUGHLY A 24-HOUR PERIOD
OF 1.0-1.5 INCHES. WIDESPREAD RAIN. EMBEDDED HEAVY SHOWERS. CHANCE
THUNDER. SUBSEQUENT NUISANCE POOR-DRAINAGE FLOODING. BREEZY ONSHORE
SE-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35 MPH ALONG THE COAST. VISIBILITY
ISSUES WITH A COMBINATION OF FOG AND/OR HEAVY RAIN. FIRST SET OF
IMPACTS MID-MORNING INTO EVENING MONDAY...A LULL...THEN MORE WET WX
IS ANTICIPATED LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE THE UMBRELLA HANDY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TUE...SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS THEN AN AFTERNOON DRYING TREND
* WED-SAT...COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS...MAINLY DIURNAL

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM PHASES WITH SOUTHERN PLAINS CUTOFF LOW
TODAY TO FORM AN ANOMALOUS LOW/VORTEX OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUE.
THEREAFTER THIS UPPER LOW WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE AS HIGH LATITUDE
BLOCKING DEVELOPS WITH POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY EVOLVING OVER THE
SOUTHERN DAVIS STRAIT. THIS RESULTS IN A VERY SLOW MOVING VORTEX
FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WED TO ONLY ADVANCING EASTWARD INTO
MAINE BY NEXT WEEKEND! WHILE THIS SEEMS EXTREME IT/S DOES HAVE
SUPPORT FROM TELECONNECTIONS AS AO/NAO AND EPO AS ALL THREE INDICES
GO NEGATIVE. GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE WILL WORK BEST AS A BASELINE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

DAILY DETAILS...

TUESDAY...TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
INSTABILITY ALOFT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ELEVATED THUNDER. IF NOT AT
THE VERY LEAST THIS INSTABILITY WILL ENHANCE SHOWER INTENSITY AND
ASSOCIATED DOWNPOURS. BY AFTERNOON DRY SLOT WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY
AROUND THE SYSTEM AND INTO THE REGION. SO SUSPECT WITH DEEPENING DRY
LAYER AND COLD ADVECTION TUE AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE A DRYING TREND
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. IN ADDITION...MILD START TO THE DAY COMBINED
WITH BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE POSSIBLE AND WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 60S.

WED AND THU...WHILE BOTH ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF MID LEVEL CLOSED
LOW...AS EXPECTED MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE AMPLITUDE AND
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES CIRCULATE AROUND THE VORTEX. THUS
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING SHOWER THREAT THIS PERIOD. TRENDING COOLER
AS MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT ADVECT EASTWARD INTO
THE REGION. COOLER THU THAN WED.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ECENS/EPS SUGGEST CORE OF COLD AIR ALOFT
SETTLES OVER THE AREA AS MID LEVEL LOW TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN NY
STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH 850 TEMPS COOLING TO -2C TO
-5C! RISK OF SHOWERS TOO GIVEN COLD AIR AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MIX WITH SOME SNOW
AT TIMES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN!

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN
MORE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING HIGH-CLOUD LATE AS WINDS VEER
E/SE TOWARDS EVENING.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ENHANCING SE-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS ALONG THE COAST AS CIGS LOWER AND THICKEN. POSSIBLE MVFR-IFR
VSBYS WITH PATCHY FOG...AS WELL AS -SHRA OVER W NEW ENGLAND.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED +RA. VSBY
RESTRICTIONS SUBSEQUENTLY ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. MVFR-IFR CIGS.
E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ALONG THE COAST.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA. IFR
CIGS WITH PATCHY FOG. CONTINUED E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS
ALONG THE COAST.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...SO UNCERTAINTY HOW QUICKLY CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. IFR/MVFR TUE AM IN SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
MVFR/VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH DRYING TREND.

WED AND THU...LOW CONFIDENCE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT AMPLITUDE
AND TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL COLD FRONTS AND ATTENDING SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 25
KNOTS ACROSS NANTUCKET SOUND AND POINTS SOUTHEAST.  THOUGHT ABOUT A
SHORT FUSED SMALL CRAFT HEADLINE...BUT SINCE WE HAVE LONG DURATION
HEADLINES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT OPTED TO LET IT GO SINCE WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH SOME OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ENHANCING SE-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS ACROSS THE WATERS BY MORNING. MARINE STRATUS DEVELOPING. MAYBE
SOME FOG ISSUES OVER THE WATERS. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FEET ON THE
S-WATERS.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SHOWERS. VSBY RESTRICTIONS SUBSEQUENTLY ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG.
E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ALONG THE COAST. LOW RISK OF
GALES ON THE E OUTER WATERS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FEET. UP TO 12 FEET ON
THE S OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS WITH THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY FOG AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS REMAIN AN
ISSUE. CONTINUED E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ALONG THE
COAST. LOW RISK OF GALES ON THE E OUTER WATERS. SEAS 10 TO 12 FEET
ON THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUE...STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MON NIGHT MOVING OFFSHORE...THUS WINDS
DIMINISHING THRU THE DAY. LEFTOVER SE SWELLS WILL REMAIN LARGE. HIGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

WED INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOMEWHAT DRIER WITH IMPROVED
VSBYS FROM TUE AM. ANY PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL AND IN THE FORM
OF SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND A PERIOD OF STRONG ONSHORE WINDS MAY
YIELD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE RI AND MA COASTLINE. HIGHEST
TIDE MON EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AROUND 11 PM SOUTH COAST AND 2 AM
EASTERN MA. AT THE MOMENT MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE GREATEST
WIND AND SURGE OCCURRING AROUND LOW TIDE MON EVENING. ALTHOUGH HAVE TO
WATCH THIS CLOSELY GIVEN ONLY 6 HR TIME DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LOW AND
HIGH TIDE.

ESTOFS APPEARED MORE REASONABLE AND BULLISH THAN ETSS WITH SURGE
VALUES MON AFTN AND EVENING 1.0 TO 1.5 FT. WAVE MODELS SUGGEST SEAS
NEAR SHORE WAVES 10-15 FT AT THIS TIME. LIKELY NOT SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT A WATCH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 191358
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1000 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MUCH COOLER WEATHER TODAY. A WIND
SWEPT SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND MILD TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING GIVE WAY TO A DRYING TREND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THEN MUCH COOLER WEATHER OVERSPREADS THE
AREA MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH THE RISK OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL GENERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  DESPITE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...ONSHORE FLOW THIS TIME OF YEAR MEANS HIGHS WILL HOLD IN
THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST INCLUDING
BOSTON.  IT WILL TURN MILDER THE FURTHER AWAY YOU GET FROM THE
OCEAN...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S
ACROSS THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY.  IN BETWEEN THE COAST AND
LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY...EXPECT HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS E AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE W. WINDS
ENHANCE OUT OF THE E/SE AS CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS W NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING. YET BELIEVE LOW
MARINE STRATUS MAY BECOME AN ISSUE BEFOREHAND AS LONG E-FETCH OFF
THE WATERS COULD YIELD MOISTURE POOLING BENEATH THE DRY-INVERSION
PER LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE THAT CONDENSES WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING AS
WELL AS PROXIMITY OF COOLER WATERS. NOT THINKING SO MUCH FOG WITH
BRISK E/SE SURFACE WINDS BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. CHILLY OVER-
NIGHT WITH E/SE ONSHORE FLOW...LOWS AROUND THE UPPER-30S.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...

BREAKING THIS DOWN INTO TWO PARTS. THE FIRST PART BEING THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL WARM FRONT LIFTING NE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. SYNOPTIC
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE. DECENT H85-7 THETA-E
MOIST PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL ORIGINS FUNNELED N BY ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
LOW-LEVEL S-FLOW OF 50-60 KNOTS THE H925-85 CONVERGENT NOSE OF WHICH
IS COLLOCATED ALONG AND REARWARD OF THE WARM FRONT. PWATS UP TO 1.5-
INCHES...ROUGHLY AROUND +2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
MONTH OF APRIL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. COLLOCATION OF BEST INGREDIENTS
AROUND MID-MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING MONDAY DURING WHICH TIME THERE
IS THE EXPECTATION OF A BROAD SWATH OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SHOWERS. LACK OF INSTABILITY SO NOT THINKING ANY THUNDER. WARM FRONT
SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE WITH H85-3 30-40 KNOT S/SW-FLOW SO FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME THINKING AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND 0.75-INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE LOCALES
EXCEED AN INCH. BUT THIS IS OVER A NEARLY 12-HOUR PERIOD. EVALUATING
SREF PROBABILITIES ALONG WITH FORECAST THINKING...PERHAPS NUISANCE
URBAN FLOODING BUT A LOW RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. NO LONGER ANY SNOW
COVER EITHER...AND THERE IS A BREAK IN THE ACTION OUTLINED BELOW.

EXPECTING A LULL BETWEEN PARTS AS DRIER AIR ENTRAINS REARWARD OF THE
WARM FRONT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE FILLS BACK IN
AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH. ACCOMPANYING LEFT-
FRONT-QUADRANT OF A JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH HAS
THE POTENTIAL OF INVOKING A SURFACE REFLECTION OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE NE-CONUS...THAT OR STOUT BROADSCALE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. COLLOCATED
WEAK INSTABILITY / CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE...
AND THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONTINUED WET WEATHER WITH POTENTIAL
ELEVATED THUNDER. NOT ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN ON OUTCOMES BUT THE FORCING
SEEMS APPARENT WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO RESULT IN SOMETHING
AT LEAST SHOWERY...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN AND AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THUNDER. SHOWALTERS < 0 WITH TOTAL-TOTALS > 50
IN ADDITION TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. WILL GO CHANCE THUNDER. ONCE
AGAIN...NUISANCE FLOODING CONSIDERATIONS ESPECIALLY IN URBAN CENTERS
BUT LOW RISK FLASH FLOODING.

IN ALL LOOKING AT STORM-TOTAL RAINFALL FOR ROUGHLY A 24-HOUR PERIOD
OF 1.0-1.5 INCHES. WIDESPREAD RAIN. EMBEDDED HEAVY SHOWERS. CHANCE
THUNDER. SUBSEQUENT NUISANCE POOR-DRAINAGE FLOODING. BREEZY ONSHORE
SE-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35 MPH ALONG THE COAST. VISIBILITY
ISSUES WITH A COMBINATION OF FOG AND/OR HEAVY RAIN. FIRST SET OF
IMPACTS MID-MORNING INTO EVENING MONDAY...A LULL...THEN MORE WET WX
IS ANTICIPATED LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE THE UMBRELLA HANDY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TUE...SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS THEN AN AFTERNOON DRYING TREND
* WED-SAT...COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS...MAINLY DIURNAL

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM PHASES WITH SOUTHERN PLAINS CUTOFF LOW
TODAY TO FORM AN ANOMALOUS LOW/VORTEX OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUE.
THEREAFTER THIS UPPER LOW WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE AS HIGH LATITUDE
BLOCKING DEVELOPS WITH POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY EVOLVING OVER THE
SOUTHERN DAVIS STRAIT. THIS RESULTS IN A VERY SLOW MOVING VORTEX
FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WED TO ONLY ADVANCING EASTWARD INTO
MAINE BY NEXT WEEKEND! WHILE THIS SEEMS EXTREME IT/S DOES HAVE
SUPPORT FROM TELECONNECTIONS AS AO/NAO AND EPO AS ALL THREE INDICES
GO NEGATIVE. GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE WILL WORK BEST AS A BASELINE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

DAILY DETAILS...

TUESDAY...TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
INSTABILITY ALOFT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ELEVATED THUNDER. IF NOT AT
THE VERY LEAST THIS INSTABILITY WILL ENHANCE SHOWER INTENSITY AND
ASSOCIATED DOWNPOURS. BY AFTERNOON DRY SLOT WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY
AROUND THE SYSTEM AND INTO THE REGION. SO SUSPECT WITH DEEPENING DRY
LAYER AND COLD ADVECTION TUE AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE A DRYING TREND
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. IN ADDITION...MILD START TO THE DAY COMBINED
WITH BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE POSSIBLE AND WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 60S.

WED AND THU...WHILE BOTH ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF MID LEVEL CLOSED
LOW...AS EXPECTED MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE AMPLITUDE AND
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES CIRCULATE AROUND THE VORTEX. THUS
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING SHOWER THREAT THIS PERIOD. TRENDING COOLER
AS MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT ADVECT EASTWARD INTO
THE REGION. COOLER THU THAN WED.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ECENS/EPS SUGGEST CORE OF COLD AIR ALOFT
SETTLES OVER THE AREA AS MID LEVEL LOW TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN NY
STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH 850 TEMPS COOLING TO -2C TO
-5C! RISK OF SHOWERS TOO GIVEN COLD AIR AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MIX WITH SOME SNOW
AT TIMES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN!

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN
MORE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING HIGH-CLOUD LATE AS WINDS VEER
E/SE TOWARDS EVENING.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ENHANCING SE-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS ALONG THE COAST AS CIGS LOWER AND THICKEN. POSSIBLE MVFR-IFR
VSBYS WITH PATCHY FOG...AS WELL AS -SHRA OVER W NEW ENGLAND.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED +RA. VSBY
RESTRICTIONS SUBSEQUENTLY ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. MVFR-IFR CIGS.
E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ALONG THE COAST.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA. IFR
CIGS WITH PATCHY FOG. CONTINUED E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS
ALONG THE COAST.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...SO UNCERTAINTY HOW QUICKLY CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. IFR/MVFR TUE AM IN SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
MVFR/VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH DRYING TREND.

WED AND THU...LOW CONFIDENCE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT AMPLITUDE
AND TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL COLD FRONTS AND ATTENDING SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 25
KNOTS ACROSS NANTUCKET SOUND AND POINTS SOUTHEAST.  THOUGHT ABOUT A
SHORT FUSED SMALL CRAFT HEADLINE...BUT SINCE WE HAVE LONG DURATION
HEADLINES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT OPTED TO LET IT GO SINCE WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH SOME OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ENHANCING SE-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS ACROSS THE WATERS BY MORNING. MARINE STRATUS DEVELOPING. MAYBE
SOME FOG ISSUES OVER THE WATERS. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FEET ON THE
S-WATERS.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SHOWERS. VSBY RESTRICTIONS SUBSEQUENTLY ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG.
E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ALONG THE COAST. LOW RISK OF
GALES ON THE E OUTER WATERS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FEET. UP TO 12 FEET ON
THE S OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS WITH THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY FOG AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS REMAIN AN
ISSUE. CONTINUED E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ALONG THE
COAST. LOW RISK OF GALES ON THE E OUTER WATERS. SEAS 10 TO 12 FEET
ON THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUE...STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MON NIGHT MOVING OFFSHORE...THUS WINDS
DIMINISHING THRU THE DAY. LEFTOVER SE SWELLS WILL REMAIN LARGE. HIGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

WED INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOMEWHAT DRIER WITH IMPROVED
VSBYS FROM TUE AM. ANY PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL AND IN THE FORM
OF SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND A PERIOD OF STRONG ONSHORE WINDS MAY
YIELD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE RI AND MA COASTLINE. HIGHEST
TIDE MON EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AROUND 11 PM SOUTH COAST AND 2 AM
EASTERN MA. AT THE MOMENT MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE GREATEST
WIND AND SURGE OCCURRING AROUND LOW TIDE MON EVENING. ALTHOUGH HAVE TO
WATCH THIS CLOSELY GIVEN ONLY 6 HR TIME DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LOW AND
HIGH TIDE.

ESTOFS APPEARED MORE REASONABLE AND BULLISH THAN ETSS WITH SURGE
VALUES MON AFTN AND EVENING 1.0 TO 1.5 FT. WAVE MODELS SUGGEST SEAS
NEAR SHORE WAVES 10-15 FT AT THIS TIME. LIKELY NOT SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT A WATCH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 191358
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1000 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MUCH COOLER WEATHER TODAY. A WIND
SWEPT SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND MILD TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING GIVE WAY TO A DRYING TREND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THEN MUCH COOLER WEATHER OVERSPREADS THE
AREA MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH THE RISK OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL GENERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  DESPITE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...ONSHORE FLOW THIS TIME OF YEAR MEANS HIGHS WILL HOLD IN
THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST INCLUDING
BOSTON.  IT WILL TURN MILDER THE FURTHER AWAY YOU GET FROM THE
OCEAN...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S
ACROSS THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY.  IN BETWEEN THE COAST AND
LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY...EXPECT HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS E AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE W. WINDS
ENHANCE OUT OF THE E/SE AS CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS W NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING. YET BELIEVE LOW
MARINE STRATUS MAY BECOME AN ISSUE BEFOREHAND AS LONG E-FETCH OFF
THE WATERS COULD YIELD MOISTURE POOLING BENEATH THE DRY-INVERSION
PER LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE THAT CONDENSES WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING AS
WELL AS PROXIMITY OF COOLER WATERS. NOT THINKING SO MUCH FOG WITH
BRISK E/SE SURFACE WINDS BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. CHILLY OVER-
NIGHT WITH E/SE ONSHORE FLOW...LOWS AROUND THE UPPER-30S.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...

BREAKING THIS DOWN INTO TWO PARTS. THE FIRST PART BEING THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL WARM FRONT LIFTING NE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. SYNOPTIC
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE. DECENT H85-7 THETA-E
MOIST PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL ORIGINS FUNNELED N BY ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
LOW-LEVEL S-FLOW OF 50-60 KNOTS THE H925-85 CONVERGENT NOSE OF WHICH
IS COLLOCATED ALONG AND REARWARD OF THE WARM FRONT. PWATS UP TO 1.5-
INCHES...ROUGHLY AROUND +2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
MONTH OF APRIL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. COLLOCATION OF BEST INGREDIENTS
AROUND MID-MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING MONDAY DURING WHICH TIME THERE
IS THE EXPECTATION OF A BROAD SWATH OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SHOWERS. LACK OF INSTABILITY SO NOT THINKING ANY THUNDER. WARM FRONT
SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE WITH H85-3 30-40 KNOT S/SW-FLOW SO FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME THINKING AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND 0.75-INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE LOCALES
EXCEED AN INCH. BUT THIS IS OVER A NEARLY 12-HOUR PERIOD. EVALUATING
SREF PROBABILITIES ALONG WITH FORECAST THINKING...PERHAPS NUISANCE
URBAN FLOODING BUT A LOW RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. NO LONGER ANY SNOW
COVER EITHER...AND THERE IS A BREAK IN THE ACTION OUTLINED BELOW.

EXPECTING A LULL BETWEEN PARTS AS DRIER AIR ENTRAINS REARWARD OF THE
WARM FRONT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE FILLS BACK IN
AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH. ACCOMPANYING LEFT-
FRONT-QUADRANT OF A JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH HAS
THE POTENTIAL OF INVOKING A SURFACE REFLECTION OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE NE-CONUS...THAT OR STOUT BROADSCALE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. COLLOCATED
WEAK INSTABILITY / CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE...
AND THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONTINUED WET WEATHER WITH POTENTIAL
ELEVATED THUNDER. NOT ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN ON OUTCOMES BUT THE FORCING
SEEMS APPARENT WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO RESULT IN SOMETHING
AT LEAST SHOWERY...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN AND AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THUNDER. SHOWALTERS < 0 WITH TOTAL-TOTALS > 50
IN ADDITION TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. WILL GO CHANCE THUNDER. ONCE
AGAIN...NUISANCE FLOODING CONSIDERATIONS ESPECIALLY IN URBAN CENTERS
BUT LOW RISK FLASH FLOODING.

IN ALL LOOKING AT STORM-TOTAL RAINFALL FOR ROUGHLY A 24-HOUR PERIOD
OF 1.0-1.5 INCHES. WIDESPREAD RAIN. EMBEDDED HEAVY SHOWERS. CHANCE
THUNDER. SUBSEQUENT NUISANCE POOR-DRAINAGE FLOODING. BREEZY ONSHORE
SE-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35 MPH ALONG THE COAST. VISIBILITY
ISSUES WITH A COMBINATION OF FOG AND/OR HEAVY RAIN. FIRST SET OF
IMPACTS MID-MORNING INTO EVENING MONDAY...A LULL...THEN MORE WET WX
IS ANTICIPATED LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE THE UMBRELLA HANDY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TUE...SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS THEN AN AFTERNOON DRYING TREND
* WED-SAT...COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS...MAINLY DIURNAL

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM PHASES WITH SOUTHERN PLAINS CUTOFF LOW
TODAY TO FORM AN ANOMALOUS LOW/VORTEX OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUE.
THEREAFTER THIS UPPER LOW WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE AS HIGH LATITUDE
BLOCKING DEVELOPS WITH POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY EVOLVING OVER THE
SOUTHERN DAVIS STRAIT. THIS RESULTS IN A VERY SLOW MOVING VORTEX
FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WED TO ONLY ADVANCING EASTWARD INTO
MAINE BY NEXT WEEKEND! WHILE THIS SEEMS EXTREME IT/S DOES HAVE
SUPPORT FROM TELECONNECTIONS AS AO/NAO AND EPO AS ALL THREE INDICES
GO NEGATIVE. GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE WILL WORK BEST AS A BASELINE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

DAILY DETAILS...

TUESDAY...TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
INSTABILITY ALOFT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ELEVATED THUNDER. IF NOT AT
THE VERY LEAST THIS INSTABILITY WILL ENHANCE SHOWER INTENSITY AND
ASSOCIATED DOWNPOURS. BY AFTERNOON DRY SLOT WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY
AROUND THE SYSTEM AND INTO THE REGION. SO SUSPECT WITH DEEPENING DRY
LAYER AND COLD ADVECTION TUE AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE A DRYING TREND
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. IN ADDITION...MILD START TO THE DAY COMBINED
WITH BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE POSSIBLE AND WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 60S.

WED AND THU...WHILE BOTH ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF MID LEVEL CLOSED
LOW...AS EXPECTED MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE AMPLITUDE AND
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES CIRCULATE AROUND THE VORTEX. THUS
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING SHOWER THREAT THIS PERIOD. TRENDING COOLER
AS MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT ADVECT EASTWARD INTO
THE REGION. COOLER THU THAN WED.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ECENS/EPS SUGGEST CORE OF COLD AIR ALOFT
SETTLES OVER THE AREA AS MID LEVEL LOW TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN NY
STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH 850 TEMPS COOLING TO -2C TO
-5C! RISK OF SHOWERS TOO GIVEN COLD AIR AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MIX WITH SOME SNOW
AT TIMES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN!

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN
MORE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING HIGH-CLOUD LATE AS WINDS VEER
E/SE TOWARDS EVENING.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ENHANCING SE-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS ALONG THE COAST AS CIGS LOWER AND THICKEN. POSSIBLE MVFR-IFR
VSBYS WITH PATCHY FOG...AS WELL AS -SHRA OVER W NEW ENGLAND.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED +RA. VSBY
RESTRICTIONS SUBSEQUENTLY ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. MVFR-IFR CIGS.
E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ALONG THE COAST.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA. IFR
CIGS WITH PATCHY FOG. CONTINUED E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS
ALONG THE COAST.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...SO UNCERTAINTY HOW QUICKLY CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. IFR/MVFR TUE AM IN SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
MVFR/VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH DRYING TREND.

WED AND THU...LOW CONFIDENCE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT AMPLITUDE
AND TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL COLD FRONTS AND ATTENDING SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 25
KNOTS ACROSS NANTUCKET SOUND AND POINTS SOUTHEAST.  THOUGHT ABOUT A
SHORT FUSED SMALL CRAFT HEADLINE...BUT SINCE WE HAVE LONG DURATION
HEADLINES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT OPTED TO LET IT GO SINCE WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH SOME OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ENHANCING SE-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS ACROSS THE WATERS BY MORNING. MARINE STRATUS DEVELOPING. MAYBE
SOME FOG ISSUES OVER THE WATERS. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FEET ON THE
S-WATERS.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SHOWERS. VSBY RESTRICTIONS SUBSEQUENTLY ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG.
E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ALONG THE COAST. LOW RISK OF
GALES ON THE E OUTER WATERS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FEET. UP TO 12 FEET ON
THE S OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS WITH THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY FOG AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS REMAIN AN
ISSUE. CONTINUED E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ALONG THE
COAST. LOW RISK OF GALES ON THE E OUTER WATERS. SEAS 10 TO 12 FEET
ON THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUE...STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MON NIGHT MOVING OFFSHORE...THUS WINDS
DIMINISHING THRU THE DAY. LEFTOVER SE SWELLS WILL REMAIN LARGE. HIGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

WED INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOMEWHAT DRIER WITH IMPROVED
VSBYS FROM TUE AM. ANY PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL AND IN THE FORM
OF SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND A PERIOD OF STRONG ONSHORE WINDS MAY
YIELD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE RI AND MA COASTLINE. HIGHEST
TIDE MON EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AROUND 11 PM SOUTH COAST AND 2 AM
EASTERN MA. AT THE MOMENT MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE GREATEST
WIND AND SURGE OCCURRING AROUND LOW TIDE MON EVENING. ALTHOUGH HAVE TO
WATCH THIS CLOSELY GIVEN ONLY 6 HR TIME DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LOW AND
HIGH TIDE.

ESTOFS APPEARED MORE REASONABLE AND BULLISH THAN ETSS WITH SURGE
VALUES MON AFTN AND EVENING 1.0 TO 1.5 FT. WAVE MODELS SUGGEST SEAS
NEAR SHORE WAVES 10-15 FT AT THIS TIME. LIKELY NOT SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT A WATCH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 191358
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1000 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MUCH COOLER WEATHER TODAY. A WIND
SWEPT SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND MILD TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING GIVE WAY TO A DRYING TREND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THEN MUCH COOLER WEATHER OVERSPREADS THE
AREA MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH THE RISK OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL GENERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  DESPITE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...ONSHORE FLOW THIS TIME OF YEAR MEANS HIGHS WILL HOLD IN
THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST INCLUDING
BOSTON.  IT WILL TURN MILDER THE FURTHER AWAY YOU GET FROM THE
OCEAN...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S
ACROSS THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY.  IN BETWEEN THE COAST AND
LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY...EXPECT HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS E AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE W. WINDS
ENHANCE OUT OF THE E/SE AS CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS W NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING. YET BELIEVE LOW
MARINE STRATUS MAY BECOME AN ISSUE BEFOREHAND AS LONG E-FETCH OFF
THE WATERS COULD YIELD MOISTURE POOLING BENEATH THE DRY-INVERSION
PER LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE THAT CONDENSES WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING AS
WELL AS PROXIMITY OF COOLER WATERS. NOT THINKING SO MUCH FOG WITH
BRISK E/SE SURFACE WINDS BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. CHILLY OVER-
NIGHT WITH E/SE ONSHORE FLOW...LOWS AROUND THE UPPER-30S.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...

BREAKING THIS DOWN INTO TWO PARTS. THE FIRST PART BEING THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL WARM FRONT LIFTING NE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. SYNOPTIC
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE. DECENT H85-7 THETA-E
MOIST PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL ORIGINS FUNNELED N BY ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
LOW-LEVEL S-FLOW OF 50-60 KNOTS THE H925-85 CONVERGENT NOSE OF WHICH
IS COLLOCATED ALONG AND REARWARD OF THE WARM FRONT. PWATS UP TO 1.5-
INCHES...ROUGHLY AROUND +2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
MONTH OF APRIL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. COLLOCATION OF BEST INGREDIENTS
AROUND MID-MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING MONDAY DURING WHICH TIME THERE
IS THE EXPECTATION OF A BROAD SWATH OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SHOWERS. LACK OF INSTABILITY SO NOT THINKING ANY THUNDER. WARM FRONT
SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE WITH H85-3 30-40 KNOT S/SW-FLOW SO FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME THINKING AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND 0.75-INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE LOCALES
EXCEED AN INCH. BUT THIS IS OVER A NEARLY 12-HOUR PERIOD. EVALUATING
SREF PROBABILITIES ALONG WITH FORECAST THINKING...PERHAPS NUISANCE
URBAN FLOODING BUT A LOW RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. NO LONGER ANY SNOW
COVER EITHER...AND THERE IS A BREAK IN THE ACTION OUTLINED BELOW.

EXPECTING A LULL BETWEEN PARTS AS DRIER AIR ENTRAINS REARWARD OF THE
WARM FRONT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE FILLS BACK IN
AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH. ACCOMPANYING LEFT-
FRONT-QUADRANT OF A JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH HAS
THE POTENTIAL OF INVOKING A SURFACE REFLECTION OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE NE-CONUS...THAT OR STOUT BROADSCALE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. COLLOCATED
WEAK INSTABILITY / CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE...
AND THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONTINUED WET WEATHER WITH POTENTIAL
ELEVATED THUNDER. NOT ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN ON OUTCOMES BUT THE FORCING
SEEMS APPARENT WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO RESULT IN SOMETHING
AT LEAST SHOWERY...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN AND AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THUNDER. SHOWALTERS < 0 WITH TOTAL-TOTALS > 50
IN ADDITION TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. WILL GO CHANCE THUNDER. ONCE
AGAIN...NUISANCE FLOODING CONSIDERATIONS ESPECIALLY IN URBAN CENTERS
BUT LOW RISK FLASH FLOODING.

IN ALL LOOKING AT STORM-TOTAL RAINFALL FOR ROUGHLY A 24-HOUR PERIOD
OF 1.0-1.5 INCHES. WIDESPREAD RAIN. EMBEDDED HEAVY SHOWERS. CHANCE
THUNDER. SUBSEQUENT NUISANCE POOR-DRAINAGE FLOODING. BREEZY ONSHORE
SE-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35 MPH ALONG THE COAST. VISIBILITY
ISSUES WITH A COMBINATION OF FOG AND/OR HEAVY RAIN. FIRST SET OF
IMPACTS MID-MORNING INTO EVENING MONDAY...A LULL...THEN MORE WET WX
IS ANTICIPATED LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE THE UMBRELLA HANDY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TUE...SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS THEN AN AFTERNOON DRYING TREND
* WED-SAT...COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS...MAINLY DIURNAL

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM PHASES WITH SOUTHERN PLAINS CUTOFF LOW
TODAY TO FORM AN ANOMALOUS LOW/VORTEX OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUE.
THEREAFTER THIS UPPER LOW WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE AS HIGH LATITUDE
BLOCKING DEVELOPS WITH POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY EVOLVING OVER THE
SOUTHERN DAVIS STRAIT. THIS RESULTS IN A VERY SLOW MOVING VORTEX
FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WED TO ONLY ADVANCING EASTWARD INTO
MAINE BY NEXT WEEKEND! WHILE THIS SEEMS EXTREME IT/S DOES HAVE
SUPPORT FROM TELECONNECTIONS AS AO/NAO AND EPO AS ALL THREE INDICES
GO NEGATIVE. GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE WILL WORK BEST AS A BASELINE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

DAILY DETAILS...

TUESDAY...TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
INSTABILITY ALOFT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ELEVATED THUNDER. IF NOT AT
THE VERY LEAST THIS INSTABILITY WILL ENHANCE SHOWER INTENSITY AND
ASSOCIATED DOWNPOURS. BY AFTERNOON DRY SLOT WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY
AROUND THE SYSTEM AND INTO THE REGION. SO SUSPECT WITH DEEPENING DRY
LAYER AND COLD ADVECTION TUE AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE A DRYING TREND
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. IN ADDITION...MILD START TO THE DAY COMBINED
WITH BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE POSSIBLE AND WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 60S.

WED AND THU...WHILE BOTH ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF MID LEVEL CLOSED
LOW...AS EXPECTED MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE AMPLITUDE AND
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES CIRCULATE AROUND THE VORTEX. THUS
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING SHOWER THREAT THIS PERIOD. TRENDING COOLER
AS MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT ADVECT EASTWARD INTO
THE REGION. COOLER THU THAN WED.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ECENS/EPS SUGGEST CORE OF COLD AIR ALOFT
SETTLES OVER THE AREA AS MID LEVEL LOW TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN NY
STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH 850 TEMPS COOLING TO -2C TO
-5C! RISK OF SHOWERS TOO GIVEN COLD AIR AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MIX WITH SOME SNOW
AT TIMES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN!

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN
MORE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING HIGH-CLOUD LATE AS WINDS VEER
E/SE TOWARDS EVENING.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ENHANCING SE-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS ALONG THE COAST AS CIGS LOWER AND THICKEN. POSSIBLE MVFR-IFR
VSBYS WITH PATCHY FOG...AS WELL AS -SHRA OVER W NEW ENGLAND.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED +RA. VSBY
RESTRICTIONS SUBSEQUENTLY ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. MVFR-IFR CIGS.
E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ALONG THE COAST.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA. IFR
CIGS WITH PATCHY FOG. CONTINUED E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS
ALONG THE COAST.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...SO UNCERTAINTY HOW QUICKLY CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. IFR/MVFR TUE AM IN SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
MVFR/VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH DRYING TREND.

WED AND THU...LOW CONFIDENCE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT AMPLITUDE
AND TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL COLD FRONTS AND ATTENDING SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 25
KNOTS ACROSS NANTUCKET SOUND AND POINTS SOUTHEAST.  THOUGHT ABOUT A
SHORT FUSED SMALL CRAFT HEADLINE...BUT SINCE WE HAVE LONG DURATION
HEADLINES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT OPTED TO LET IT GO SINCE WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH SOME OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ENHANCING SE-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS ACROSS THE WATERS BY MORNING. MARINE STRATUS DEVELOPING. MAYBE
SOME FOG ISSUES OVER THE WATERS. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FEET ON THE
S-WATERS.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SHOWERS. VSBY RESTRICTIONS SUBSEQUENTLY ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG.
E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ALONG THE COAST. LOW RISK OF
GALES ON THE E OUTER WATERS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FEET. UP TO 12 FEET ON
THE S OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS WITH THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY FOG AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS REMAIN AN
ISSUE. CONTINUED E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ALONG THE
COAST. LOW RISK OF GALES ON THE E OUTER WATERS. SEAS 10 TO 12 FEET
ON THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUE...STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MON NIGHT MOVING OFFSHORE...THUS WINDS
DIMINISHING THRU THE DAY. LEFTOVER SE SWELLS WILL REMAIN LARGE. HIGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

WED INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOMEWHAT DRIER WITH IMPROVED
VSBYS FROM TUE AM. ANY PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL AND IN THE FORM
OF SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND A PERIOD OF STRONG ONSHORE WINDS MAY
YIELD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE RI AND MA COASTLINE. HIGHEST
TIDE MON EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AROUND 11 PM SOUTH COAST AND 2 AM
EASTERN MA. AT THE MOMENT MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE GREATEST
WIND AND SURGE OCCURRING AROUND LOW TIDE MON EVENING. ALTHOUGH HAVE TO
WATCH THIS CLOSELY GIVEN ONLY 6 HR TIME DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LOW AND
HIGH TIDE.

ESTOFS APPEARED MORE REASONABLE AND BULLISH THAN ETSS WITH SURGE
VALUES MON AFTN AND EVENING 1.0 TO 1.5 FT. WAVE MODELS SUGGEST SEAS
NEAR SHORE WAVES 10-15 FT AT THIS TIME. LIKELY NOT SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT A WATCH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 191041
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
641 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MUCH COOLER WEATHER TODAY. A WIND
SWEPT SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND MILD TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING GIVE WAY TO A DRYING TREND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THEN MUCH COOLER WEATHER OVERSPREADS THE
AREA MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH THE RISK OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

645 AM UPDATE...

1030 MB HIGH OVER QUEBEC NOSING SOUTHWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND AND
PROVIDING A COOL/DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPS IN THE
30S AND 40S WITH DEW PTS IN THE 20S AND 30S. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES
TO BUILD INTO THE AREA COMBINED WITH STRONG SOLAR HEATING SEABREEZES
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND LIMIT TEMPS TO 45 TO 50 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST INCLUDING BOSTON. MUCH WARMER WESTWARD INTO THE CT
RVR VALLEY/I-91 CORRIDOR WHERE TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW AND
MID 60S. PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURES THESE DETAILS SO LITTLE CHANGE
WITH THIS UPDATE. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===================================================================

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS VEERING E/NE
AND ONSHORE. ACCOMPANYING COOL AIRMASS ALONG WITH H925 TEMPERATURES
AROUND +4-6C. IN COMBINATION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...LOW-60S
FOR HIGHS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
SHORES. LIGHT WINDS OVERALL CONTINUING TO VEER OUT OF THE SE BY
EVENING AS THIN HIGH-CLOUDS BUILD OUT OF THE W AHEAD OF MONDAYS WET
WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS E AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE W. WINDS
ENHANCE OUT OF THE E/SE AS CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS W NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING. YET BELIEVE LOW
MARINE STRATUS MAY BECOME AN ISSUE BEFOREHAND AS LONG E-FETCH OFF
THE WATERS COULD YIELD MOISTURE POOLING BENEATH THE DRY-INVERSION
PER LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE THAT CONDENSES WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING AS
WELL AS PROXIMITY OF COOLER WATERS. NOT THINKING SO MUCH FOG WITH
BRISK E/SE SURFACE WINDS BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. CHILLY OVER-
NIGHT WITH E/SE ONSHORE FLOW...LOWS AROUND THE UPPER-30S.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...

BREAKING THIS DOWN INTO TWO PARTS. THE FIRST PART BEING THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL WARM FRONT LIFTING NE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. SYNOPTIC
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE. DECENT H85-7 THETA-E
MOIST PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL ORIGINS FUNNELED N BY ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
LOW-LEVEL S-FLOW OF 50-60 KNOTS THE H925-85 CONVERGENT NOSE OF WHICH
IS COLLOCATED ALONG AND REARWARD OF THE WARM FRONT. PWATS UP TO 1.5-
INCHES...ROUGHLY AROUND +2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
MONTH OF APRIL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. COLLOCATION OF BEST INGREDIENTS
AROUND MID-MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING MONDAY DURING WHICH TIME THERE
IS THE EXPECTATION OF A BROAD SWATH OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SHOWERS. LACK OF INSTABILITY SO NOT THINKING ANY THUNDER. WARM FRONT
SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE WITH H85-3 30-40 KNOT S/SW-FLOW SO FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME THINKING AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND 0.75-INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE LOCALES
EXCEED AN INCH. BUT THIS IS OVER A NEARLY 12-HOUR PERIOD. EVALUATING
SREF PROBABILITIES ALONG WITH FORECAST THINKING...PERHAPS NUISANCE
URBAN FLOODING BUT A LOW RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. NO LONGER ANY SNOW
COVER EITHER...AND THERE IS A BREAK IN THE ACTION OUTLINED BELOW.

EXPECTING A LULL BETWEEN PARTS AS DRIER AIR ENTRAINS REARWARD OF THE
WARM FRONT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE FILLS BACK IN
AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH. ACCOMPANYING LEFT-
FRONT-QUADRANT OF A JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH HAS
THE POTENTIAL OF INVOKING A SURFACE REFLECTION OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE NE-CONUS...THAT OR STOUT BROADSCALE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. COLLOCATED
WEAK INSTABILITY / CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE...
AND THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONTINUED WET WEATHER WITH POTENTIAL
ELEVATED THUNDER. NOT ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN ON OUTCOMES BUT THE FORCING
SEEMS APPARENT WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO RESULT IN SOMETHING
AT LEAST SHOWERY...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN AND AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THUNDER. SHOWALTERS < 0 WITH TOTAL-TOTALS > 50
IN ADDITION TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. WILL GO CHANCE THUNDER. ONCE
AGAIN...NUISANCE FLOODING CONSIDERATIONS ESPECIALLY IN URBAN CENTERS
BUT LOW RISK FLASH FLOODING.

IN ALL LOOKING AT STORM-TOTAL RAINFALL FOR ROUGHLY A 24-HOUR PERIOD
OF 1.0-1.5 INCHES. WIDESPREAD RAIN. EMBEDDED HEAVY SHOWERS. CHANCE
THUNDER. SUBSEQUENT NUISANCE POOR-DRAINAGE FLOODING. BREEZY ONSHORE
SE-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35 MPH ALONG THE COAST. VISIBILITY
ISSUES WITH A COMBINATION OF FOG AND/OR HEAVY RAIN. FIRST SET OF
IMPACTS MID-MORNING INTO EVENING MONDAY...A LULL...THEN MORE WET WX
IS ANTICIPATED LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE THE UMBRELLA HANDY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TUE...SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS THEN AN AFTERNOON DRYING TREND
* WED-SAT...COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS...MAINLY DIURNAL

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM PHASES WITH SOUTHERN PLAINS CUTOFF LOW
TODAY TO FORM AN ANOMALOUS LOW/VORTEX OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUE.
THEREAFTER THIS UPPER LOW WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE AS HIGH LATITUDE
BLOCKING DEVELOPS WITH POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY EVOLVING OVER THE
SOUTHERN DAVIS STRAIT. THIS RESULTS IN A VERY SLOW MOVING VORTEX
FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WED TO ONLY ADVANCING EASTWARD INTO
MAINE BY NEXT WEEKEND! WHILE THIS SEEMS EXTREME IT/S DOES HAVE
SUPPORT FROM TELECONNECTIONS AS AO/NAO AND EPO AS ALL THREE INDICES
GO NEGATIVE. GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE WILL WORK BEST AS A BASELINE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

DAILY DETAILS...

TUESDAY...TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
INSTABILITY ALOFT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ELEVATED THUNDER. IF NOT AT
THE VERY LEAST THIS INSTABILITY WILL ENHANCE SHOWER INTENSITY AND
ASSOCIATED DOWNPOURS. BY AFTERNOON DRY SLOT WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY
AROUND THE SYSTEM AND INTO THE REGION. SO SUSPECT WITH DEEPENING DRY
LAYER AND COLD ADVECTION TUE AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE A DRYING TREND
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. IN ADDITION...MILD START TO THE DAY COMBINED
WITH BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE POSSIBLE AND WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 60S.

WED AND THU...WHILE BOTH ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF MID LEVEL CLOSED
LOW...AS EXPECTED MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE AMPLITUDE AND
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES CIRCULATE AROUND THE VORTEX. THUS
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING SHOWER THREAT THIS PERIOD. TRENDING COOLER
AS MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT ADVECT EASTWARD INTO
THE REGION. COOLER THU THAN WED.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ECENS/EPS SUGGEST CORE OF COLD AIR ALOFT
SETTLES OVER THE AREA AS MID LEVEL LOW TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN NY
STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH 850 TEMPS COOLING TO -2C TO
-5C! RISK OF SHOWERS TOO GIVEN COLD AIR AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MIX WITH SOME SNOW
AT TIMES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN!

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

645 AM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 06Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

================================================================

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LIGHT N-WINDS VEERING E. INCREASING
HIGH-CLOUD LATE AS WINDS VEER E/SE TOWARDS EVENING.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ENHANCING SE-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS ALONG THE COAST AS CIGS LOWER AND THICKEN. POSSIBLE MVFR-IFR
VSBYS WITH PATCHY FOG...AS WELL AS -SHRA OVER W NEW ENGLAND.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED +RA. VSBY
RESTRICTIONS SUBSEQUENTLY ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. MVFR-IFR CIGS.
E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ALONG THE COAST.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA. IFR
CIGS WITH PATCHY FOG. CONTINUED E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS
ALONG THE COAST.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...SO UNCERTAINTY HOW QUICKLY CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. IFR/MVFR TUE AM IN SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
MVFR/VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH DRYING TREND.

WED AND THU...LOW CONFIDENCE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT AMPLITUDE
AND TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL COLD FRONTS AND ATTENDING SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT N-WINDS VEERING E. INCREASING
HIGH-CLOUD LATE AS WINDS CONTINUE VEERING E/SE TOWARDS EVENING.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ENHANCING SE-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS ACROSS THE WATERS BY MORNING. MARINE STRATUS DEVELOPING. MAYBE
SOME FOG ISSUES OVER THE WATERS. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FEET ON THE
S-WATERS.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SHOWERS. VSBY RESTRICTIONS SUBSEQUENTLY ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG.
E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ALONG THE COAST. LOW RISK OF
GALES ON THE E OUTER WATERS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FEET. UP TO 12 FEET ON
THE S OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS WITH THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY FOG AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS REMAIN AN
ISSUE. CONTINUED E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ALONG THE
COAST. LOW RISK OF GALES ON THE E OUTER WATERS. SEAS 10 TO 12 FEET
ON THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUE...STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MON NIGHT MOVING OFFSHORE...THUS WINDS
DIMINISHING THRU THE DAY. LEFTOVER SE SWELLS WILL REMAIN LARGE. HIGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

WED INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOMEWHAT DRIER WITH IMPROVED
VSBYS FROM TUE AM. ANY PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL AND IN THE FORM
OF SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND A PERIOD OF STRONG ONSHORE WINDS MAY
YIELD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE RI AND MA COASTLINE. HIGHEST
TIDE MON EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AROUND 11 PM SOUTH COAST AND 2 AM
EASTERN MA. AT THE MOMENT MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE GREATEST
WIND AND SURGE OCCURRING AROUND LOW TIDE MON EVENING. ALTH HAVE TO
WATCH THIS CLOSELY GIVEN ONLY 6 HR TIME DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LOW AND
HIGH TIDE.

ESTOFS APPEARED MORE REASONABLE AND BULLISH THAN ETSS WITH SURGE
VALUES MON AFTN AND EVENING 1.0 TO 1.5 FT. WAVE MODELS SUGGEST SEAS
NEAR SHORE WAVES 10-15 FT AT THIS TIME. LIKELY NOT SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT A WATCH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 191041
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
641 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MUCH COOLER WEATHER TODAY. A WIND
SWEPT SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND MILD TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING GIVE WAY TO A DRYING TREND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THEN MUCH COOLER WEATHER OVERSPREADS THE
AREA MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH THE RISK OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

645 AM UPDATE...

1030 MB HIGH OVER QUEBEC NOSING SOUTHWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND AND
PROVIDING A COOL/DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPS IN THE
30S AND 40S WITH DEW PTS IN THE 20S AND 30S. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES
TO BUILD INTO THE AREA COMBINED WITH STRONG SOLAR HEATING SEABREEZES
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND LIMIT TEMPS TO 45 TO 50 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST INCLUDING BOSTON. MUCH WARMER WESTWARD INTO THE CT
RVR VALLEY/I-91 CORRIDOR WHERE TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW AND
MID 60S. PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURES THESE DETAILS SO LITTLE CHANGE
WITH THIS UPDATE. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===================================================================

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS VEERING E/NE
AND ONSHORE. ACCOMPANYING COOL AIRMASS ALONG WITH H925 TEMPERATURES
AROUND +4-6C. IN COMBINATION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...LOW-60S
FOR HIGHS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
SHORES. LIGHT WINDS OVERALL CONTINUING TO VEER OUT OF THE SE BY
EVENING AS THIN HIGH-CLOUDS BUILD OUT OF THE W AHEAD OF MONDAYS WET
WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS E AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE W. WINDS
ENHANCE OUT OF THE E/SE AS CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS W NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING. YET BELIEVE LOW
MARINE STRATUS MAY BECOME AN ISSUE BEFOREHAND AS LONG E-FETCH OFF
THE WATERS COULD YIELD MOISTURE POOLING BENEATH THE DRY-INVERSION
PER LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE THAT CONDENSES WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING AS
WELL AS PROXIMITY OF COOLER WATERS. NOT THINKING SO MUCH FOG WITH
BRISK E/SE SURFACE WINDS BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. CHILLY OVER-
NIGHT WITH E/SE ONSHORE FLOW...LOWS AROUND THE UPPER-30S.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...

BREAKING THIS DOWN INTO TWO PARTS. THE FIRST PART BEING THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL WARM FRONT LIFTING NE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. SYNOPTIC
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE. DECENT H85-7 THETA-E
MOIST PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL ORIGINS FUNNELED N BY ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
LOW-LEVEL S-FLOW OF 50-60 KNOTS THE H925-85 CONVERGENT NOSE OF WHICH
IS COLLOCATED ALONG AND REARWARD OF THE WARM FRONT. PWATS UP TO 1.5-
INCHES...ROUGHLY AROUND +2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
MONTH OF APRIL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. COLLOCATION OF BEST INGREDIENTS
AROUND MID-MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING MONDAY DURING WHICH TIME THERE
IS THE EXPECTATION OF A BROAD SWATH OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SHOWERS. LACK OF INSTABILITY SO NOT THINKING ANY THUNDER. WARM FRONT
SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE WITH H85-3 30-40 KNOT S/SW-FLOW SO FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME THINKING AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND 0.75-INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE LOCALES
EXCEED AN INCH. BUT THIS IS OVER A NEARLY 12-HOUR PERIOD. EVALUATING
SREF PROBABILITIES ALONG WITH FORECAST THINKING...PERHAPS NUISANCE
URBAN FLOODING BUT A LOW RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. NO LONGER ANY SNOW
COVER EITHER...AND THERE IS A BREAK IN THE ACTION OUTLINED BELOW.

EXPECTING A LULL BETWEEN PARTS AS DRIER AIR ENTRAINS REARWARD OF THE
WARM FRONT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE FILLS BACK IN
AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH. ACCOMPANYING LEFT-
FRONT-QUADRANT OF A JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH HAS
THE POTENTIAL OF INVOKING A SURFACE REFLECTION OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE NE-CONUS...THAT OR STOUT BROADSCALE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. COLLOCATED
WEAK INSTABILITY / CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE...
AND THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONTINUED WET WEATHER WITH POTENTIAL
ELEVATED THUNDER. NOT ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN ON OUTCOMES BUT THE FORCING
SEEMS APPARENT WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO RESULT IN SOMETHING
AT LEAST SHOWERY...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN AND AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THUNDER. SHOWALTERS < 0 WITH TOTAL-TOTALS > 50
IN ADDITION TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. WILL GO CHANCE THUNDER. ONCE
AGAIN...NUISANCE FLOODING CONSIDERATIONS ESPECIALLY IN URBAN CENTERS
BUT LOW RISK FLASH FLOODING.

IN ALL LOOKING AT STORM-TOTAL RAINFALL FOR ROUGHLY A 24-HOUR PERIOD
OF 1.0-1.5 INCHES. WIDESPREAD RAIN. EMBEDDED HEAVY SHOWERS. CHANCE
THUNDER. SUBSEQUENT NUISANCE POOR-DRAINAGE FLOODING. BREEZY ONSHORE
SE-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35 MPH ALONG THE COAST. VISIBILITY
ISSUES WITH A COMBINATION OF FOG AND/OR HEAVY RAIN. FIRST SET OF
IMPACTS MID-MORNING INTO EVENING MONDAY...A LULL...THEN MORE WET WX
IS ANTICIPATED LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE THE UMBRELLA HANDY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TUE...SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS THEN AN AFTERNOON DRYING TREND
* WED-SAT...COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS...MAINLY DIURNAL

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM PHASES WITH SOUTHERN PLAINS CUTOFF LOW
TODAY TO FORM AN ANOMALOUS LOW/VORTEX OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUE.
THEREAFTER THIS UPPER LOW WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE AS HIGH LATITUDE
BLOCKING DEVELOPS WITH POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY EVOLVING OVER THE
SOUTHERN DAVIS STRAIT. THIS RESULTS IN A VERY SLOW MOVING VORTEX
FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WED TO ONLY ADVANCING EASTWARD INTO
MAINE BY NEXT WEEKEND! WHILE THIS SEEMS EXTREME IT/S DOES HAVE
SUPPORT FROM TELECONNECTIONS AS AO/NAO AND EPO AS ALL THREE INDICES
GO NEGATIVE. GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE WILL WORK BEST AS A BASELINE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

DAILY DETAILS...

TUESDAY...TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
INSTABILITY ALOFT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ELEVATED THUNDER. IF NOT AT
THE VERY LEAST THIS INSTABILITY WILL ENHANCE SHOWER INTENSITY AND
ASSOCIATED DOWNPOURS. BY AFTERNOON DRY SLOT WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY
AROUND THE SYSTEM AND INTO THE REGION. SO SUSPECT WITH DEEPENING DRY
LAYER AND COLD ADVECTION TUE AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE A DRYING TREND
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. IN ADDITION...MILD START TO THE DAY COMBINED
WITH BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE POSSIBLE AND WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 60S.

WED AND THU...WHILE BOTH ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF MID LEVEL CLOSED
LOW...AS EXPECTED MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE AMPLITUDE AND
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES CIRCULATE AROUND THE VORTEX. THUS
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING SHOWER THREAT THIS PERIOD. TRENDING COOLER
AS MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT ADVECT EASTWARD INTO
THE REGION. COOLER THU THAN WED.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ECENS/EPS SUGGEST CORE OF COLD AIR ALOFT
SETTLES OVER THE AREA AS MID LEVEL LOW TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN NY
STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH 850 TEMPS COOLING TO -2C TO
-5C! RISK OF SHOWERS TOO GIVEN COLD AIR AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MIX WITH SOME SNOW
AT TIMES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN!

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

645 AM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 06Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

================================================================

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LIGHT N-WINDS VEERING E. INCREASING
HIGH-CLOUD LATE AS WINDS VEER E/SE TOWARDS EVENING.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ENHANCING SE-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS ALONG THE COAST AS CIGS LOWER AND THICKEN. POSSIBLE MVFR-IFR
VSBYS WITH PATCHY FOG...AS WELL AS -SHRA OVER W NEW ENGLAND.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED +RA. VSBY
RESTRICTIONS SUBSEQUENTLY ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. MVFR-IFR CIGS.
E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ALONG THE COAST.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA. IFR
CIGS WITH PATCHY FOG. CONTINUED E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS
ALONG THE COAST.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...SO UNCERTAINTY HOW QUICKLY CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. IFR/MVFR TUE AM IN SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
MVFR/VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH DRYING TREND.

WED AND THU...LOW CONFIDENCE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT AMPLITUDE
AND TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL COLD FRONTS AND ATTENDING SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT N-WINDS VEERING E. INCREASING
HIGH-CLOUD LATE AS WINDS CONTINUE VEERING E/SE TOWARDS EVENING.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ENHANCING SE-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS ACROSS THE WATERS BY MORNING. MARINE STRATUS DEVELOPING. MAYBE
SOME FOG ISSUES OVER THE WATERS. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FEET ON THE
S-WATERS.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SHOWERS. VSBY RESTRICTIONS SUBSEQUENTLY ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG.
E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ALONG THE COAST. LOW RISK OF
GALES ON THE E OUTER WATERS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FEET. UP TO 12 FEET ON
THE S OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS WITH THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY FOG AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS REMAIN AN
ISSUE. CONTINUED E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ALONG THE
COAST. LOW RISK OF GALES ON THE E OUTER WATERS. SEAS 10 TO 12 FEET
ON THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUE...STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MON NIGHT MOVING OFFSHORE...THUS WINDS
DIMINISHING THRU THE DAY. LEFTOVER SE SWELLS WILL REMAIN LARGE. HIGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

WED INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOMEWHAT DRIER WITH IMPROVED
VSBYS FROM TUE AM. ANY PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL AND IN THE FORM
OF SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND A PERIOD OF STRONG ONSHORE WINDS MAY
YIELD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE RI AND MA COASTLINE. HIGHEST
TIDE MON EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AROUND 11 PM SOUTH COAST AND 2 AM
EASTERN MA. AT THE MOMENT MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE GREATEST
WIND AND SURGE OCCURRING AROUND LOW TIDE MON EVENING. ALTH HAVE TO
WATCH THIS CLOSELY GIVEN ONLY 6 HR TIME DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LOW AND
HIGH TIDE.

ESTOFS APPEARED MORE REASONABLE AND BULLISH THAN ETSS WITH SURGE
VALUES MON AFTN AND EVENING 1.0 TO 1.5 FT. WAVE MODELS SUGGEST SEAS
NEAR SHORE WAVES 10-15 FT AT THIS TIME. LIKELY NOT SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT A WATCH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 191041
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
641 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MUCH COOLER WEATHER TODAY. A WIND
SWEPT SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND MILD TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING GIVE WAY TO A DRYING TREND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THEN MUCH COOLER WEATHER OVERSPREADS THE
AREA MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH THE RISK OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

645 AM UPDATE...

1030 MB HIGH OVER QUEBEC NOSING SOUTHWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND AND
PROVIDING A COOL/DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPS IN THE
30S AND 40S WITH DEW PTS IN THE 20S AND 30S. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES
TO BUILD INTO THE AREA COMBINED WITH STRONG SOLAR HEATING SEABREEZES
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND LIMIT TEMPS TO 45 TO 50 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST INCLUDING BOSTON. MUCH WARMER WESTWARD INTO THE CT
RVR VALLEY/I-91 CORRIDOR WHERE TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW AND
MID 60S. PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURES THESE DETAILS SO LITTLE CHANGE
WITH THIS UPDATE. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

===================================================================

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS VEERING E/NE
AND ONSHORE. ACCOMPANYING COOL AIRMASS ALONG WITH H925 TEMPERATURES
AROUND +4-6C. IN COMBINATION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...LOW-60S
FOR HIGHS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
SHORES. LIGHT WINDS OVERALL CONTINUING TO VEER OUT OF THE SE BY
EVENING AS THIN HIGH-CLOUDS BUILD OUT OF THE W AHEAD OF MONDAYS WET
WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS E AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE W. WINDS
ENHANCE OUT OF THE E/SE AS CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS W NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING. YET BELIEVE LOW
MARINE STRATUS MAY BECOME AN ISSUE BEFOREHAND AS LONG E-FETCH OFF
THE WATERS COULD YIELD MOISTURE POOLING BENEATH THE DRY-INVERSION
PER LINGERING HIGH PRESSURE THAT CONDENSES WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING AS
WELL AS PROXIMITY OF COOLER WATERS. NOT THINKING SO MUCH FOG WITH
BRISK E/SE SURFACE WINDS BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. CHILLY OVER-
NIGHT WITH E/SE ONSHORE FLOW...LOWS AROUND THE UPPER-30S.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...

BREAKING THIS DOWN INTO TWO PARTS. THE FIRST PART BEING THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL WARM FRONT LIFTING NE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. SYNOPTIC
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE. DECENT H85-7 THETA-E
MOIST PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL ORIGINS FUNNELED N BY ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
LOW-LEVEL S-FLOW OF 50-60 KNOTS THE H925-85 CONVERGENT NOSE OF WHICH
IS COLLOCATED ALONG AND REARWARD OF THE WARM FRONT. PWATS UP TO 1.5-
INCHES...ROUGHLY AROUND +2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
MONTH OF APRIL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. COLLOCATION OF BEST INGREDIENTS
AROUND MID-MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING MONDAY DURING WHICH TIME THERE
IS THE EXPECTATION OF A BROAD SWATH OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SHOWERS. LACK OF INSTABILITY SO NOT THINKING ANY THUNDER. WARM FRONT
SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE WITH H85-3 30-40 KNOT S/SW-FLOW SO FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME THINKING AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND 0.75-INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE LOCALES
EXCEED AN INCH. BUT THIS IS OVER A NEARLY 12-HOUR PERIOD. EVALUATING
SREF PROBABILITIES ALONG WITH FORECAST THINKING...PERHAPS NUISANCE
URBAN FLOODING BUT A LOW RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. NO LONGER ANY SNOW
COVER EITHER...AND THERE IS A BREAK IN THE ACTION OUTLINED BELOW.

EXPECTING A LULL BETWEEN PARTS AS DRIER AIR ENTRAINS REARWARD OF THE
WARM FRONT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE FILLS BACK IN
AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH. ACCOMPANYING LEFT-
FRONT-QUADRANT OF A JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH HAS
THE POTENTIAL OF INVOKING A SURFACE REFLECTION OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE NE-CONUS...THAT OR STOUT BROADSCALE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. COLLOCATED
WEAK INSTABILITY / CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE...
AND THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONTINUED WET WEATHER WITH POTENTIAL
ELEVATED THUNDER. NOT ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN ON OUTCOMES BUT THE FORCING
SEEMS APPARENT WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO RESULT IN SOMETHING
AT LEAST SHOWERY...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN AND AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THUNDER. SHOWALTERS < 0 WITH TOTAL-TOTALS > 50
IN ADDITION TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. WILL GO CHANCE THUNDER. ONCE
AGAIN...NUISANCE FLOODING CONSIDERATIONS ESPECIALLY IN URBAN CENTERS
BUT LOW RISK FLASH FLOODING.

IN ALL LOOKING AT STORM-TOTAL RAINFALL FOR ROUGHLY A 24-HOUR PERIOD
OF 1.0-1.5 INCHES. WIDESPREAD RAIN. EMBEDDED HEAVY SHOWERS. CHANCE
THUNDER. SUBSEQUENT NUISANCE POOR-DRAINAGE FLOODING. BREEZY ONSHORE
SE-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35 MPH ALONG THE COAST. VISIBILITY
ISSUES WITH A COMBINATION OF FOG AND/OR HEAVY RAIN. FIRST SET OF
IMPACTS MID-MORNING INTO EVENING MONDAY...A LULL...THEN MORE WET WX
IS ANTICIPATED LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE THE UMBRELLA HANDY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* TUE...SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS THEN AN AFTERNOON DRYING TREND
* WED-SAT...COOLER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS...MAINLY DIURNAL

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM PHASES WITH SOUTHERN PLAINS CUTOFF LOW
TODAY TO FORM AN ANOMALOUS LOW/VORTEX OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUE.
THEREAFTER THIS UPPER LOW WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE AS HIGH LATITUDE
BLOCKING DEVELOPS WITH POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY EVOLVING OVER THE
SOUTHERN DAVIS STRAIT. THIS RESULTS IN A VERY SLOW MOVING VORTEX
FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WED TO ONLY ADVANCING EASTWARD INTO
MAINE BY NEXT WEEKEND! WHILE THIS SEEMS EXTREME IT/S DOES HAVE
SUPPORT FROM TELECONNECTIONS AS AO/NAO AND EPO AS ALL THREE INDICES
GO NEGATIVE. GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE WILL WORK BEST AS A BASELINE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

DAILY DETAILS...

TUESDAY...TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
INSTABILITY ALOFT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ELEVATED THUNDER. IF NOT AT
THE VERY LEAST THIS INSTABILITY WILL ENHANCE SHOWER INTENSITY AND
ASSOCIATED DOWNPOURS. BY AFTERNOON DRY SLOT WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY
AROUND THE SYSTEM AND INTO THE REGION. SO SUSPECT WITH DEEPENING DRY
LAYER AND COLD ADVECTION TUE AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE A DRYING TREND
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. IN ADDITION...MILD START TO THE DAY COMBINED
WITH BREAKS OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE POSSIBLE AND WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 60S.

WED AND THU...WHILE BOTH ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF MID LEVEL CLOSED
LOW...AS EXPECTED MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE AMPLITUDE AND
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES CIRCULATE AROUND THE VORTEX. THUS
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING SHOWER THREAT THIS PERIOD. TRENDING COOLER
AS MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT ADVECT EASTWARD INTO
THE REGION. COOLER THU THAN WED.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ECENS/EPS SUGGEST CORE OF COLD AIR ALOFT
SETTLES OVER THE AREA AS MID LEVEL LOW TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN NY
STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH 850 TEMPS COOLING TO -2C TO
-5C! RISK OF SHOWERS TOO GIVEN COLD AIR AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MIX WITH SOME SNOW
AT TIMES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN!

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

645 AM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 06Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

================================================================

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LIGHT N-WINDS VEERING E. INCREASING
HIGH-CLOUD LATE AS WINDS VEER E/SE TOWARDS EVENING.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ENHANCING SE-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS ALONG THE COAST AS CIGS LOWER AND THICKEN. POSSIBLE MVFR-IFR
VSBYS WITH PATCHY FOG...AS WELL AS -SHRA OVER W NEW ENGLAND.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED +RA. VSBY
RESTRICTIONS SUBSEQUENTLY ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. MVFR-IFR CIGS.
E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ALONG THE COAST.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA. IFR
CIGS WITH PATCHY FOG. CONTINUED E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS
ALONG THE COAST.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...SO UNCERTAINTY HOW QUICKLY CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. IFR/MVFR TUE AM IN SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
MVFR/VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH DRYING TREND.

WED AND THU...LOW CONFIDENCE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT AMPLITUDE
AND TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL COLD FRONTS AND ATTENDING SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT N-WINDS VEERING E. INCREASING
HIGH-CLOUD LATE AS WINDS CONTINUE VEERING E/SE TOWARDS EVENING.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. ENHANCING SE-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS ACROSS THE WATERS BY MORNING. MARINE STRATUS DEVELOPING. MAYBE
SOME FOG ISSUES OVER THE WATERS. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FEET ON THE
S-WATERS.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SHOWERS. VSBY RESTRICTIONS SUBSEQUENTLY ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG.
E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ALONG THE COAST. LOW RISK OF
GALES ON THE E OUTER WATERS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FEET. UP TO 12 FEET ON
THE S OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS WITH THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. PATCHY FOG AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS REMAIN AN
ISSUE. CONTINUED E/SE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ALONG THE
COAST. LOW RISK OF GALES ON THE E OUTER WATERS. SEAS 10 TO 12 FEET
ON THE OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TUE...STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MON NIGHT MOVING OFFSHORE...THUS WINDS
DIMINISHING THRU THE DAY. LEFTOVER SE SWELLS WILL REMAIN LARGE. HIGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

WED INTO THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOMEWHAT DRIER WITH IMPROVED
VSBYS FROM TUE AM. ANY PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL AND IN THE FORM
OF SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND A PERIOD OF STRONG ONSHORE WINDS MAY
YIELD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE RI AND MA COASTLINE. HIGHEST
TIDE MON EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AROUND 11 PM SOUTH COAST AND 2 AM
EASTERN MA. AT THE MOMENT MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE GREATEST
WIND AND SURGE OCCURRING AROUND LOW TIDE MON EVENING. ALTH HAVE TO
WATCH THIS CLOSELY GIVEN ONLY 6 HR TIME DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LOW AND
HIGH TIDE.

ESTOFS APPEARED MORE REASONABLE AND BULLISH THAN ETSS WITH SURGE
VALUES MON AFTN AND EVENING 1.0 TO 1.5 FT. WAVE MODELS SUGGEST SEAS
NEAR SHORE WAVES 10-15 FT AT THIS TIME. LIKELY NOT SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT A WATCH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




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