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000
FXUS61 KBOX 282044
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
444 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF NANTUCKET WILL CONTINUE MOVING
EAST WHILE A SECONDARY LOW FORMS SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL KEEP SOME LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND WELL INTO THE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
USA WITH DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND COULD BRING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A
MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
4 PM UPDATE...

INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED WELL OFFSHORE...ABOUT 200 MILES
EAST OF NANTUCKET WHERE THERE HAVE BEEN LIGHTNING STRIKES IN PAST
FEW HOURS. LUCKILY WE ARE ONLY HAVING TO DEAL WITH A WEAK TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THIS STORM AND LOCATED
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN OCCURRING ALL DAY OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT RAIN ON OUTER CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. IT HAS
ACCUMULATED 2 TO 3 INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BUT EVEN THAT
HAS MAINLY BEEN ON GRASSY AREAS AND NOT PAVEMENT. IN MOST AREAS IT
HAS MELTED ON ROAD SURFACES WITH TEMPERATURES HANGING IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S.

AS OF 4 PM...BANDS OF SNOW WERE PICKING UP IN INTENSITY ACROSS
EASTERN MA IN THE BOSTON METRO AREA...AND IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CT. HIGH RESOLUTION WRF...INCLUDING THE ARW AND NMM...ALL DEPICT
THIS QUITE WELL. THEY SHOW IT EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO RI AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MA BETWEEN NOW AND 8 PM. WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING DURING THAT TIME FRAME...WE COULD PICK UP
ANOTHER INCH OR TWO AND IT COULD BEGIN TO STICK ON ROADWAYS.
BETWEEN 8 PM AND MIDNIGHT...SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED AND EVENTUALLY END FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
DAYBREAK.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VORTICITY MAX NEAR
PHILADELPHIA THAT WILL BE CLOSING OFF A 500 MB LOW SOUTH OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AND A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM
JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK OF 40N 70W. THIS WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE OF SNOW LINGERING THE LONGEST FROM BLOCK ISLAND TO
NANTUCKET...UNTIL ABOUT DAYBREAK. STILL ONLY EXPECTING .1 TO .2
INCHES OF LIQUID...OR UP TO AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW THERE.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF GUSTY PERIOD OF UP TO 15-25 MPH OVERNIGHT AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE LOW AND STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. LOWS RANGING FROM TEENS NORTHWEST
TO NEAR 30 CAPE AND ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES SUNDAY...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD
INTO NEW ENGLAND. LINGERING CLOUDS IN SOUTHEAST MA WILL GIVE WAY
TO SUNSHINE BY MID TO LATE MORNING. ELSEWHERE A SUNNY DAY IS
FORECAST WITH HIGHS FROM 35 TO 40.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO START...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S BUT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
PREVENT THEM FROM FALLING FURTHER LATER AT NIGHT. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY IN FAR WESTERN
SECTIONS OF MA AND CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY...BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
  WEDNESDAY
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SOMETIME DURING EASTER
  WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

AN ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
NEXT WEEK. ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES OUT TOWARD
MID WEEK...LEAVING BEHIND A SIGNIFICANTLY LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW. THIS
IS LEADING TO GREATER GREATER SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR LATE
NEXT WEEK AS IT IS VERY TOUGH TO CONSISTENTLY TIME INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES WITHIN A RELATIVELY FAST MID-LEVEL FLOW.  SINCE THE
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN...WILL FOLLOW
A CONSENSUS BLEND APPROACH TO SMOOTH OVER THESE FINER-SCALE
DIFFERENCES.

DETAILS...

* MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH NW FLOW ALOFT
MONDAY. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BRINGING PRECIPITATION EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE
LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH...SWINGING
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

TEMPERATURES AT THE ONSET LOOK TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW
SHOWERS. THOUGH RAIN SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY BECOME MORE PREDOMINANT
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL...SO COVERAGE MAY BE
MORE SCATTERED ALONG THE FRONT. EXPECTING VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
WITHIN ANY SNOW SHOWERS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AND GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH.

* TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE FROM CANADA JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. AS IT DOES...WE EXPECT TO SEE A CLIPPER-LIKE LOW
PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND STAYING JUST
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE
HAVE THE GREATEST RISK FOR PRECIPITATION. MODELS ARE SIMILAR ON
THE TIMING BRINGING PRECIPITATION IN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
PUSHING IT OUT BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO BE LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW...BUT MOSTLY
EXPECTING RAINFALL AT THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH
THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM...SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE.

* THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING.

WEAK RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY TAKE OVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE TO IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD SWING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD ARRIVE SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT LOOK TO BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY RAIN
WITH THIS PARTICULAR STORM.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS EVENING...SLOWLY IMPROVING TO VFR FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT.
LOCAL IFR CIGS MAINLY EASTERN MA. LIGHT SNOW MAY NOT TOTALLY END
UNTIL NEAR DAYBREAK ALONG THE RI COAST AND SE COASTAL MA.

SUNDAY...VFR. HOWEVER MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER NEAR THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS UNTIL MID OR LATE MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. INCREASING MID CLOUDINESS THEN MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE LATE IN WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT TERMINALS. CHANCE OF A
SNOW SHOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR
20-25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR
SOUTH OF PIKE IN QUICK-MOVING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

THURSDAY...VFR MOST OF THE DAY.


&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN POSTED FOR MOST WATERS. SEAS WILL
CONTINUE ON THE ROUGH SIDE...FROM 5 TO 8 FEET ON ALL EXPOSED
WATERS AND 1 TO 4 FEET CLOSER TO SHORE. NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO
20-25 KNOTS THIS EVENING MAY DIMINISH BRIEFLY AND THEN PICK UP
AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE
DIMINISHING AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY BE SUBSIDING. LINGERING 5 FOOT
SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE FORECAST TO BE NO LONGER NEEDED EARLY
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THEY WILL NEED TO BE
HOISTED AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR A PORTION OF THE EASTERN MA
OUTER WATERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
MAY GUST TO 20 TO 25 KT TOWARD DAYBREAK AND SEAS MAY
CORRESPONDINGLY INCREASE TO NEAR 5 FT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATERS
EAST OF CAPE ANN.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS AND
SEAS IN RESPONSE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
FRONT EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON
WED ALLOWING FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO GRADUALLY RELAX.

THURSDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE OVER THE WATERS...WITH
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-235-237-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/GAF
NEAR TERM...GAF
SHORT TERM...GAF
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/GAF
MARINE...BELK/GAF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 282044
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
444 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF NANTUCKET WILL CONTINUE MOVING
EAST WHILE A SECONDARY LOW FORMS SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL KEEP SOME LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND WELL INTO THE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
USA WITH DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND COULD BRING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A
MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
4 PM UPDATE...

INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED WELL OFFSHORE...ABOUT 200 MILES
EAST OF NANTUCKET WHERE THERE HAVE BEEN LIGHTNING STRIKES IN PAST
FEW HOURS. LUCKILY WE ARE ONLY HAVING TO DEAL WITH A WEAK TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THIS STORM AND LOCATED
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN OCCURRING ALL DAY OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT RAIN ON OUTER CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. IT HAS
ACCUMULATED 2 TO 3 INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BUT EVEN THAT
HAS MAINLY BEEN ON GRASSY AREAS AND NOT PAVEMENT. IN MOST AREAS IT
HAS MELTED ON ROAD SURFACES WITH TEMPERATURES HANGING IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S.

AS OF 4 PM...BANDS OF SNOW WERE PICKING UP IN INTENSITY ACROSS
EASTERN MA IN THE BOSTON METRO AREA...AND IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CT. HIGH RESOLUTION WRF...INCLUDING THE ARW AND NMM...ALL DEPICT
THIS QUITE WELL. THEY SHOW IT EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO RI AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MA BETWEEN NOW AND 8 PM. WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING DURING THAT TIME FRAME...WE COULD PICK UP
ANOTHER INCH OR TWO AND IT COULD BEGIN TO STICK ON ROADWAYS.
BETWEEN 8 PM AND MIDNIGHT...SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED AND EVENTUALLY END FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
DAYBREAK.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VORTICITY MAX NEAR
PHILADELPHIA THAT WILL BE CLOSING OFF A 500 MB LOW SOUTH OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AND A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM
JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK OF 40N 70W. THIS WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE OF SNOW LINGERING THE LONGEST FROM BLOCK ISLAND TO
NANTUCKET...UNTIL ABOUT DAYBREAK. STILL ONLY EXPECTING .1 TO .2
INCHES OF LIQUID...OR UP TO AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW THERE.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF GUSTY PERIOD OF UP TO 15-25 MPH OVERNIGHT AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE LOW AND STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. LOWS RANGING FROM TEENS NORTHWEST
TO NEAR 30 CAPE AND ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES SUNDAY...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD
INTO NEW ENGLAND. LINGERING CLOUDS IN SOUTHEAST MA WILL GIVE WAY
TO SUNSHINE BY MID TO LATE MORNING. ELSEWHERE A SUNNY DAY IS
FORECAST WITH HIGHS FROM 35 TO 40.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO START...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S BUT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
PREVENT THEM FROM FALLING FURTHER LATER AT NIGHT. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY IN FAR WESTERN
SECTIONS OF MA AND CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY...BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
  WEDNESDAY
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SOMETIME DURING EASTER
  WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

AN ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
NEXT WEEK. ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES OUT TOWARD
MID WEEK...LEAVING BEHIND A SIGNIFICANTLY LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW. THIS
IS LEADING TO GREATER GREATER SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR LATE
NEXT WEEK AS IT IS VERY TOUGH TO CONSISTENTLY TIME INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES WITHIN A RELATIVELY FAST MID-LEVEL FLOW.  SINCE THE
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN...WILL FOLLOW
A CONSENSUS BLEND APPROACH TO SMOOTH OVER THESE FINER-SCALE
DIFFERENCES.

DETAILS...

* MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH NW FLOW ALOFT
MONDAY. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BRINGING PRECIPITATION EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE
LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH...SWINGING
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

TEMPERATURES AT THE ONSET LOOK TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW
SHOWERS. THOUGH RAIN SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY BECOME MORE PREDOMINANT
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL...SO COVERAGE MAY BE
MORE SCATTERED ALONG THE FRONT. EXPECTING VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
WITHIN ANY SNOW SHOWERS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AND GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH.

* TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE FROM CANADA JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. AS IT DOES...WE EXPECT TO SEE A CLIPPER-LIKE LOW
PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND STAYING JUST
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE
HAVE THE GREATEST RISK FOR PRECIPITATION. MODELS ARE SIMILAR ON
THE TIMING BRINGING PRECIPITATION IN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
PUSHING IT OUT BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO BE LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW...BUT MOSTLY
EXPECTING RAINFALL AT THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH
THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM...SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE.

* THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING.

WEAK RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY TAKE OVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE TO IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD SWING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD ARRIVE SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT LOOK TO BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY RAIN
WITH THIS PARTICULAR STORM.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS EVENING...SLOWLY IMPROVING TO VFR FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT.
LOCAL IFR CIGS MAINLY EASTERN MA. LIGHT SNOW MAY NOT TOTALLY END
UNTIL NEAR DAYBREAK ALONG THE RI COAST AND SE COASTAL MA.

SUNDAY...VFR. HOWEVER MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER NEAR THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS UNTIL MID OR LATE MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. INCREASING MID CLOUDINESS THEN MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE LATE IN WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT TERMINALS. CHANCE OF A
SNOW SHOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR
20-25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR
SOUTH OF PIKE IN QUICK-MOVING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

THURSDAY...VFR MOST OF THE DAY.


&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN POSTED FOR MOST WATERS. SEAS WILL
CONTINUE ON THE ROUGH SIDE...FROM 5 TO 8 FEET ON ALL EXPOSED
WATERS AND 1 TO 4 FEET CLOSER TO SHORE. NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO
20-25 KNOTS THIS EVENING MAY DIMINISH BRIEFLY AND THEN PICK UP
AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE
DIMINISHING AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY BE SUBSIDING. LINGERING 5 FOOT
SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE FORECAST TO BE NO LONGER NEEDED EARLY
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THEY WILL NEED TO BE
HOISTED AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR A PORTION OF THE EASTERN MA
OUTER WATERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
MAY GUST TO 20 TO 25 KT TOWARD DAYBREAK AND SEAS MAY
CORRESPONDINGLY INCREASE TO NEAR 5 FT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATERS
EAST OF CAPE ANN.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS AND
SEAS IN RESPONSE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
FRONT EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON
WED ALLOWING FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO GRADUALLY RELAX.

THURSDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE OVER THE WATERS...WITH
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-235-237-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/GAF
NEAR TERM...GAF
SHORT TERM...GAF
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/GAF
MARINE...BELK/GAF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 282044
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
444 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF NANTUCKET WILL CONTINUE MOVING
EAST WHILE A SECONDARY LOW FORMS SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL KEEP SOME LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND WELL INTO THE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
USA WITH DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND COULD BRING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A
MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
4 PM UPDATE...

INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED WELL OFFSHORE...ABOUT 200 MILES
EAST OF NANTUCKET WHERE THERE HAVE BEEN LIGHTNING STRIKES IN PAST
FEW HOURS. LUCKILY WE ARE ONLY HAVING TO DEAL WITH A WEAK TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THIS STORM AND LOCATED
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN OCCURRING ALL DAY OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT RAIN ON OUTER CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. IT HAS
ACCUMULATED 2 TO 3 INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BUT EVEN THAT
HAS MAINLY BEEN ON GRASSY AREAS AND NOT PAVEMENT. IN MOST AREAS IT
HAS MELTED ON ROAD SURFACES WITH TEMPERATURES HANGING IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S.

AS OF 4 PM...BANDS OF SNOW WERE PICKING UP IN INTENSITY ACROSS
EASTERN MA IN THE BOSTON METRO AREA...AND IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CT. HIGH RESOLUTION WRF...INCLUDING THE ARW AND NMM...ALL DEPICT
THIS QUITE WELL. THEY SHOW IT EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO RI AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MA BETWEEN NOW AND 8 PM. WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING DURING THAT TIME FRAME...WE COULD PICK UP
ANOTHER INCH OR TWO AND IT COULD BEGIN TO STICK ON ROADWAYS.
BETWEEN 8 PM AND MIDNIGHT...SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED AND EVENTUALLY END FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
DAYBREAK.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VORTICITY MAX NEAR
PHILADELPHIA THAT WILL BE CLOSING OFF A 500 MB LOW SOUTH OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AND A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM
JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK OF 40N 70W. THIS WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE OF SNOW LINGERING THE LONGEST FROM BLOCK ISLAND TO
NANTUCKET...UNTIL ABOUT DAYBREAK. STILL ONLY EXPECTING .1 TO .2
INCHES OF LIQUID...OR UP TO AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW THERE.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF GUSTY PERIOD OF UP TO 15-25 MPH OVERNIGHT AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE LOW AND STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. LOWS RANGING FROM TEENS NORTHWEST
TO NEAR 30 CAPE AND ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES SUNDAY...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD
INTO NEW ENGLAND. LINGERING CLOUDS IN SOUTHEAST MA WILL GIVE WAY
TO SUNSHINE BY MID TO LATE MORNING. ELSEWHERE A SUNNY DAY IS
FORECAST WITH HIGHS FROM 35 TO 40.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO START...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S BUT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
PREVENT THEM FROM FALLING FURTHER LATER AT NIGHT. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY IN FAR WESTERN
SECTIONS OF MA AND CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY...BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
  WEDNESDAY
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SOMETIME DURING EASTER
  WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

AN ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
NEXT WEEK. ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES OUT TOWARD
MID WEEK...LEAVING BEHIND A SIGNIFICANTLY LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW. THIS
IS LEADING TO GREATER GREATER SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR LATE
NEXT WEEK AS IT IS VERY TOUGH TO CONSISTENTLY TIME INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES WITHIN A RELATIVELY FAST MID-LEVEL FLOW.  SINCE THE
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN...WILL FOLLOW
A CONSENSUS BLEND APPROACH TO SMOOTH OVER THESE FINER-SCALE
DIFFERENCES.

DETAILS...

* MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH NW FLOW ALOFT
MONDAY. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BRINGING PRECIPITATION EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE
LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH...SWINGING
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

TEMPERATURES AT THE ONSET LOOK TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW
SHOWERS. THOUGH RAIN SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY BECOME MORE PREDOMINANT
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL...SO COVERAGE MAY BE
MORE SCATTERED ALONG THE FRONT. EXPECTING VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
WITHIN ANY SNOW SHOWERS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AND GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH.

* TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE FROM CANADA JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. AS IT DOES...WE EXPECT TO SEE A CLIPPER-LIKE LOW
PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND STAYING JUST
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE
HAVE THE GREATEST RISK FOR PRECIPITATION. MODELS ARE SIMILAR ON
THE TIMING BRINGING PRECIPITATION IN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
PUSHING IT OUT BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO BE LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW...BUT MOSTLY
EXPECTING RAINFALL AT THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH
THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM...SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE.

* THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING.

WEAK RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY TAKE OVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE TO IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD SWING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD ARRIVE SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT LOOK TO BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY RAIN
WITH THIS PARTICULAR STORM.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS EVENING...SLOWLY IMPROVING TO VFR FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT.
LOCAL IFR CIGS MAINLY EASTERN MA. LIGHT SNOW MAY NOT TOTALLY END
UNTIL NEAR DAYBREAK ALONG THE RI COAST AND SE COASTAL MA.

SUNDAY...VFR. HOWEVER MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER NEAR THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS UNTIL MID OR LATE MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. INCREASING MID CLOUDINESS THEN MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE LATE IN WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT TERMINALS. CHANCE OF A
SNOW SHOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR
20-25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR
SOUTH OF PIKE IN QUICK-MOVING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

THURSDAY...VFR MOST OF THE DAY.


&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN POSTED FOR MOST WATERS. SEAS WILL
CONTINUE ON THE ROUGH SIDE...FROM 5 TO 8 FEET ON ALL EXPOSED
WATERS AND 1 TO 4 FEET CLOSER TO SHORE. NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO
20-25 KNOTS THIS EVENING MAY DIMINISH BRIEFLY AND THEN PICK UP
AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE
DIMINISHING AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY BE SUBSIDING. LINGERING 5 FOOT
SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE FORECAST TO BE NO LONGER NEEDED EARLY
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THEY WILL NEED TO BE
HOISTED AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR A PORTION OF THE EASTERN MA
OUTER WATERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
MAY GUST TO 20 TO 25 KT TOWARD DAYBREAK AND SEAS MAY
CORRESPONDINGLY INCREASE TO NEAR 5 FT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATERS
EAST OF CAPE ANN.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS AND
SEAS IN RESPONSE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
FRONT EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON
WED ALLOWING FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO GRADUALLY RELAX.

THURSDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE OVER THE WATERS...WITH
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-235-237-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/GAF
NEAR TERM...GAF
SHORT TERM...GAF
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/GAF
MARINE...BELK/GAF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 282044
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
444 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF NANTUCKET WILL CONTINUE MOVING
EAST WHILE A SECONDARY LOW FORMS SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL KEEP SOME LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND WELL INTO THE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
USA WITH DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND COULD BRING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A
MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
4 PM UPDATE...

INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED WELL OFFSHORE...ABOUT 200 MILES
EAST OF NANTUCKET WHERE THERE HAVE BEEN LIGHTNING STRIKES IN PAST
FEW HOURS. LUCKILY WE ARE ONLY HAVING TO DEAL WITH A WEAK TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THIS STORM AND LOCATED
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN OCCURRING ALL DAY OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT RAIN ON OUTER CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. IT HAS
ACCUMULATED 2 TO 3 INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BUT EVEN THAT
HAS MAINLY BEEN ON GRASSY AREAS AND NOT PAVEMENT. IN MOST AREAS IT
HAS MELTED ON ROAD SURFACES WITH TEMPERATURES HANGING IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S.

AS OF 4 PM...BANDS OF SNOW WERE PICKING UP IN INTENSITY ACROSS
EASTERN MA IN THE BOSTON METRO AREA...AND IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CT. HIGH RESOLUTION WRF...INCLUDING THE ARW AND NMM...ALL DEPICT
THIS QUITE WELL. THEY SHOW IT EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO RI AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MA BETWEEN NOW AND 8 PM. WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING DURING THAT TIME FRAME...WE COULD PICK UP
ANOTHER INCH OR TWO AND IT COULD BEGIN TO STICK ON ROADWAYS.
BETWEEN 8 PM AND MIDNIGHT...SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED AND EVENTUALLY END FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
DAYBREAK.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VORTICITY MAX NEAR
PHILADELPHIA THAT WILL BE CLOSING OFF A 500 MB LOW SOUTH OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AND A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM
JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK OF 40N 70W. THIS WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE OF SNOW LINGERING THE LONGEST FROM BLOCK ISLAND TO
NANTUCKET...UNTIL ABOUT DAYBREAK. STILL ONLY EXPECTING .1 TO .2
INCHES OF LIQUID...OR UP TO AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW THERE.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF GUSTY PERIOD OF UP TO 15-25 MPH OVERNIGHT AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE LOW AND STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. LOWS RANGING FROM TEENS NORTHWEST
TO NEAR 30 CAPE AND ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES SUNDAY...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD
INTO NEW ENGLAND. LINGERING CLOUDS IN SOUTHEAST MA WILL GIVE WAY
TO SUNSHINE BY MID TO LATE MORNING. ELSEWHERE A SUNNY DAY IS
FORECAST WITH HIGHS FROM 35 TO 40.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO START...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S BUT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
PREVENT THEM FROM FALLING FURTHER LATER AT NIGHT. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY IN FAR WESTERN
SECTIONS OF MA AND CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY...BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
  WEDNESDAY
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SOMETIME DURING EASTER
  WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

AN ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
NEXT WEEK. ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES OUT TOWARD
MID WEEK...LEAVING BEHIND A SIGNIFICANTLY LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW. THIS
IS LEADING TO GREATER GREATER SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR LATE
NEXT WEEK AS IT IS VERY TOUGH TO CONSISTENTLY TIME INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES WITHIN A RELATIVELY FAST MID-LEVEL FLOW.  SINCE THE
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN...WILL FOLLOW
A CONSENSUS BLEND APPROACH TO SMOOTH OVER THESE FINER-SCALE
DIFFERENCES.

DETAILS...

* MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH NW FLOW ALOFT
MONDAY. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BRINGING PRECIPITATION EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE
LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH...SWINGING
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

TEMPERATURES AT THE ONSET LOOK TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW
SHOWERS. THOUGH RAIN SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY BECOME MORE PREDOMINANT
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL...SO COVERAGE MAY BE
MORE SCATTERED ALONG THE FRONT. EXPECTING VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
WITHIN ANY SNOW SHOWERS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AND GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH.

* TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE FROM CANADA JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. AS IT DOES...WE EXPECT TO SEE A CLIPPER-LIKE LOW
PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND STAYING JUST
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE
HAVE THE GREATEST RISK FOR PRECIPITATION. MODELS ARE SIMILAR ON
THE TIMING BRINGING PRECIPITATION IN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
PUSHING IT OUT BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO BE LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW...BUT MOSTLY
EXPECTING RAINFALL AT THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH
THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM...SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE.

* THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING.

WEAK RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY TAKE OVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE TO IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD SWING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD ARRIVE SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT LOOK TO BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY RAIN
WITH THIS PARTICULAR STORM.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS EVENING...SLOWLY IMPROVING TO VFR FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT.
LOCAL IFR CIGS MAINLY EASTERN MA. LIGHT SNOW MAY NOT TOTALLY END
UNTIL NEAR DAYBREAK ALONG THE RI COAST AND SE COASTAL MA.

SUNDAY...VFR. HOWEVER MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER NEAR THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS UNTIL MID OR LATE MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. INCREASING MID CLOUDINESS THEN MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE LATE IN WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT TERMINALS. CHANCE OF A
SNOW SHOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR
20-25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR
SOUTH OF PIKE IN QUICK-MOVING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

THURSDAY...VFR MOST OF THE DAY.


&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN POSTED FOR MOST WATERS. SEAS WILL
CONTINUE ON THE ROUGH SIDE...FROM 5 TO 8 FEET ON ALL EXPOSED
WATERS AND 1 TO 4 FEET CLOSER TO SHORE. NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO
20-25 KNOTS THIS EVENING MAY DIMINISH BRIEFLY AND THEN PICK UP
AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE
DIMINISHING AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY BE SUBSIDING. LINGERING 5 FOOT
SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE FORECAST TO BE NO LONGER NEEDED EARLY
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THEY WILL NEED TO BE
HOISTED AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR A PORTION OF THE EASTERN MA
OUTER WATERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
MAY GUST TO 20 TO 25 KT TOWARD DAYBREAK AND SEAS MAY
CORRESPONDINGLY INCREASE TO NEAR 5 FT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATERS
EAST OF CAPE ANN.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS AND
SEAS IN RESPONSE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
FRONT EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON
WED ALLOWING FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO GRADUALLY RELAX.

THURSDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE OVER THE WATERS...WITH
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-235-237-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/GAF
NEAR TERM...GAF
SHORT TERM...GAF
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/GAF
MARINE...BELK/GAF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 282044
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
444 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF NANTUCKET WILL CONTINUE MOVING
EAST WHILE A SECONDARY LOW FORMS SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL KEEP SOME LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND WELL INTO THE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
USA WITH DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND COULD BRING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A
MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
4 PM UPDATE...

INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED WELL OFFSHORE...ABOUT 200 MILES
EAST OF NANTUCKET WHERE THERE HAVE BEEN LIGHTNING STRIKES IN PAST
FEW HOURS. LUCKILY WE ARE ONLY HAVING TO DEAL WITH A WEAK TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THIS STORM AND LOCATED
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN OCCURRING ALL DAY OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT RAIN ON OUTER CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. IT HAS
ACCUMULATED 2 TO 3 INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BUT EVEN THAT
HAS MAINLY BEEN ON GRASSY AREAS AND NOT PAVEMENT. IN MOST AREAS IT
HAS MELTED ON ROAD SURFACES WITH TEMPERATURES HANGING IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S.

AS OF 4 PM...BANDS OF SNOW WERE PICKING UP IN INTENSITY ACROSS
EASTERN MA IN THE BOSTON METRO AREA...AND IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CT. HIGH RESOLUTION WRF...INCLUDING THE ARW AND NMM...ALL DEPICT
THIS QUITE WELL. THEY SHOW IT EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO RI AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MA BETWEEN NOW AND 8 PM. WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING DURING THAT TIME FRAME...WE COULD PICK UP
ANOTHER INCH OR TWO AND IT COULD BEGIN TO STICK ON ROADWAYS.
BETWEEN 8 PM AND MIDNIGHT...SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED AND EVENTUALLY END FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
DAYBREAK.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VORTICITY MAX NEAR
PHILADELPHIA THAT WILL BE CLOSING OFF A 500 MB LOW SOUTH OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AND A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM
JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK OF 40N 70W. THIS WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE OF SNOW LINGERING THE LONGEST FROM BLOCK ISLAND TO
NANTUCKET...UNTIL ABOUT DAYBREAK. STILL ONLY EXPECTING .1 TO .2
INCHES OF LIQUID...OR UP TO AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW THERE.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF GUSTY PERIOD OF UP TO 15-25 MPH OVERNIGHT AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE LOW AND STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. LOWS RANGING FROM TEENS NORTHWEST
TO NEAR 30 CAPE AND ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES SUNDAY...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD
INTO NEW ENGLAND. LINGERING CLOUDS IN SOUTHEAST MA WILL GIVE WAY
TO SUNSHINE BY MID TO LATE MORNING. ELSEWHERE A SUNNY DAY IS
FORECAST WITH HIGHS FROM 35 TO 40.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO START...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S BUT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
PREVENT THEM FROM FALLING FURTHER LATER AT NIGHT. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY IN FAR WESTERN
SECTIONS OF MA AND CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY...BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
  WEDNESDAY
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SOMETIME DURING EASTER
  WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

AN ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
NEXT WEEK. ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES OUT TOWARD
MID WEEK...LEAVING BEHIND A SIGNIFICANTLY LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW. THIS
IS LEADING TO GREATER GREATER SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR LATE
NEXT WEEK AS IT IS VERY TOUGH TO CONSISTENTLY TIME INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES WITHIN A RELATIVELY FAST MID-LEVEL FLOW.  SINCE THE
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN...WILL FOLLOW
A CONSENSUS BLEND APPROACH TO SMOOTH OVER THESE FINER-SCALE
DIFFERENCES.

DETAILS...

* MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH NW FLOW ALOFT
MONDAY. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BRINGING PRECIPITATION EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE
LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH...SWINGING
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

TEMPERATURES AT THE ONSET LOOK TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW
SHOWERS. THOUGH RAIN SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY BECOME MORE PREDOMINANT
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL...SO COVERAGE MAY BE
MORE SCATTERED ALONG THE FRONT. EXPECTING VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
WITHIN ANY SNOW SHOWERS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AND GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH.

* TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE FROM CANADA JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. AS IT DOES...WE EXPECT TO SEE A CLIPPER-LIKE LOW
PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND STAYING JUST
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE
HAVE THE GREATEST RISK FOR PRECIPITATION. MODELS ARE SIMILAR ON
THE TIMING BRINGING PRECIPITATION IN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
PUSHING IT OUT BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO BE LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW...BUT MOSTLY
EXPECTING RAINFALL AT THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH
THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM...SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE.

* THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING.

WEAK RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY TAKE OVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE TO IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD SWING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD ARRIVE SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT LOOK TO BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY RAIN
WITH THIS PARTICULAR STORM.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS EVENING...SLOWLY IMPROVING TO VFR FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT.
LOCAL IFR CIGS MAINLY EASTERN MA. LIGHT SNOW MAY NOT TOTALLY END
UNTIL NEAR DAYBREAK ALONG THE RI COAST AND SE COASTAL MA.

SUNDAY...VFR. HOWEVER MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER NEAR THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS UNTIL MID OR LATE MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. INCREASING MID CLOUDINESS THEN MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE LATE IN WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT TERMINALS. CHANCE OF A
SNOW SHOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR
20-25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR
SOUTH OF PIKE IN QUICK-MOVING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

THURSDAY...VFR MOST OF THE DAY.


&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN POSTED FOR MOST WATERS. SEAS WILL
CONTINUE ON THE ROUGH SIDE...FROM 5 TO 8 FEET ON ALL EXPOSED
WATERS AND 1 TO 4 FEET CLOSER TO SHORE. NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO
20-25 KNOTS THIS EVENING MAY DIMINISH BRIEFLY AND THEN PICK UP
AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE
DIMINISHING AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY BE SUBSIDING. LINGERING 5 FOOT
SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE FORECAST TO BE NO LONGER NEEDED EARLY
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THEY WILL NEED TO BE
HOISTED AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR A PORTION OF THE EASTERN MA
OUTER WATERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
MAY GUST TO 20 TO 25 KT TOWARD DAYBREAK AND SEAS MAY
CORRESPONDINGLY INCREASE TO NEAR 5 FT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATERS
EAST OF CAPE ANN.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS AND
SEAS IN RESPONSE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
FRONT EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON
WED ALLOWING FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO GRADUALLY RELAX.

THURSDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE OVER THE WATERS...WITH
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-235-237-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/GAF
NEAR TERM...GAF
SHORT TERM...GAF
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/GAF
MARINE...BELK/GAF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 282044
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
444 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF NANTUCKET WILL CONTINUE MOVING
EAST WHILE A SECONDARY LOW FORMS SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL KEEP SOME LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND WELL INTO THE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
USA WITH DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND COULD BRING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A
MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM MAY APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
4 PM UPDATE...

INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED WELL OFFSHORE...ABOUT 200 MILES
EAST OF NANTUCKET WHERE THERE HAVE BEEN LIGHTNING STRIKES IN PAST
FEW HOURS. LUCKILY WE ARE ONLY HAVING TO DEAL WITH A WEAK TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THIS STORM AND LOCATED
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN OCCURRING ALL DAY OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT RAIN ON OUTER CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. IT HAS
ACCUMULATED 2 TO 3 INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BUT EVEN THAT
HAS MAINLY BEEN ON GRASSY AREAS AND NOT PAVEMENT. IN MOST AREAS IT
HAS MELTED ON ROAD SURFACES WITH TEMPERATURES HANGING IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S.

AS OF 4 PM...BANDS OF SNOW WERE PICKING UP IN INTENSITY ACROSS
EASTERN MA IN THE BOSTON METRO AREA...AND IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CT. HIGH RESOLUTION WRF...INCLUDING THE ARW AND NMM...ALL DEPICT
THIS QUITE WELL. THEY SHOW IT EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO RI AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MA BETWEEN NOW AND 8 PM. WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING DURING THAT TIME FRAME...WE COULD PICK UP
ANOTHER INCH OR TWO AND IT COULD BEGIN TO STICK ON ROADWAYS.
BETWEEN 8 PM AND MIDNIGHT...SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED AND EVENTUALLY END FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
DAYBREAK.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VORTICITY MAX NEAR
PHILADELPHIA THAT WILL BE CLOSING OFF A 500 MB LOW SOUTH OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AND A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM
JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK OF 40N 70W. THIS WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE OF SNOW LINGERING THE LONGEST FROM BLOCK ISLAND TO
NANTUCKET...UNTIL ABOUT DAYBREAK. STILL ONLY EXPECTING .1 TO .2
INCHES OF LIQUID...OR UP TO AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW THERE.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF GUSTY PERIOD OF UP TO 15-25 MPH OVERNIGHT AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE LOW AND STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. LOWS RANGING FROM TEENS NORTHWEST
TO NEAR 30 CAPE AND ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES SUNDAY...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD
INTO NEW ENGLAND. LINGERING CLOUDS IN SOUTHEAST MA WILL GIVE WAY
TO SUNSHINE BY MID TO LATE MORNING. ELSEWHERE A SUNNY DAY IS
FORECAST WITH HIGHS FROM 35 TO 40.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO START...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S BUT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
PREVENT THEM FROM FALLING FURTHER LATER AT NIGHT. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY IN FAR WESTERN
SECTIONS OF MA AND CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY...BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
  WEDNESDAY
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SOMETIME DURING EASTER
  WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

AN ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
NEXT WEEK. ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES OUT TOWARD
MID WEEK...LEAVING BEHIND A SIGNIFICANTLY LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW. THIS
IS LEADING TO GREATER GREATER SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR LATE
NEXT WEEK AS IT IS VERY TOUGH TO CONSISTENTLY TIME INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES WITHIN A RELATIVELY FAST MID-LEVEL FLOW.  SINCE THE
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN...WILL FOLLOW
A CONSENSUS BLEND APPROACH TO SMOOTH OVER THESE FINER-SCALE
DIFFERENCES.

DETAILS...

* MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH NW FLOW ALOFT
MONDAY. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BRINGING PRECIPITATION EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE
LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH...SWINGING
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

TEMPERATURES AT THE ONSET LOOK TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW
SHOWERS. THOUGH RAIN SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY BECOME MORE PREDOMINANT
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL...SO COVERAGE MAY BE
MORE SCATTERED ALONG THE FRONT. EXPECTING VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
WITHIN ANY SNOW SHOWERS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AND GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH.

* TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE FROM CANADA JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. AS IT DOES...WE EXPECT TO SEE A CLIPPER-LIKE LOW
PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND STAYING JUST
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE
HAVE THE GREATEST RISK FOR PRECIPITATION. MODELS ARE SIMILAR ON
THE TIMING BRINGING PRECIPITATION IN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
PUSHING IT OUT BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO BE LOW ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW...BUT MOSTLY
EXPECTING RAINFALL AT THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH
THE TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM...SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2
INCHES OF SNOW SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE.

* THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING.

WEAK RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY TAKE OVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE TO IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD SWING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD ARRIVE SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT LOOK TO BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY RAIN
WITH THIS PARTICULAR STORM.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS EVENING...SLOWLY IMPROVING TO VFR FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT.
LOCAL IFR CIGS MAINLY EASTERN MA. LIGHT SNOW MAY NOT TOTALLY END
UNTIL NEAR DAYBREAK ALONG THE RI COAST AND SE COASTAL MA.

SUNDAY...VFR. HOWEVER MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER NEAR THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS UNTIL MID OR LATE MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. INCREASING MID CLOUDINESS THEN MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE LATE IN WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT TERMINALS. CHANCE OF A
SNOW SHOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR
20-25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR
SOUTH OF PIKE IN QUICK-MOVING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

THURSDAY...VFR MOST OF THE DAY.


&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN POSTED FOR MOST WATERS. SEAS WILL
CONTINUE ON THE ROUGH SIDE...FROM 5 TO 8 FEET ON ALL EXPOSED
WATERS AND 1 TO 4 FEET CLOSER TO SHORE. NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO
20-25 KNOTS THIS EVENING MAY DIMINISH BRIEFLY AND THEN PICK UP
AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE
DIMINISHING AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY BE SUBSIDING. LINGERING 5 FOOT
SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE FORECAST TO BE NO LONGER NEEDED EARLY
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THEY WILL NEED TO BE
HOISTED AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR A PORTION OF THE EASTERN MA
OUTER WATERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
MAY GUST TO 20 TO 25 KT TOWARD DAYBREAK AND SEAS MAY
CORRESPONDINGLY INCREASE TO NEAR 5 FT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATERS
EAST OF CAPE ANN.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS AND
SEAS IN RESPONSE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
FRONT EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON
WED ALLOWING FOR SEAS AND WINDS TO GRADUALLY RELAX.

THURSDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE OVER THE WATERS...WITH
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-235-237-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/GAF
NEAR TERM...GAF
SHORT TERM...GAF
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/GAF
MARINE...BELK/GAF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 282028
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
428 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF NANTUCKET WILL CONTINUE MOVING
EAST WHILE A SECONDARY LOW FORMS SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL KEEP SOME LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND WELL INTO THE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
EASTERN USA WITH DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT. FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE LIGHT RAIN
AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY
APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK WITH MORE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
4 PM UPDATE...

INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED WELL OFFSHORE...ABOUT 200 MILES
EAST OF NANTUCKET WHERE THERE HAVE BEEN LIGHTNING STRIKES IN PAST
FEW HOURS. LUCKILY WE ARE ONLY HAVING TO DEAL WITH A WEAK TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THIS STORM AND LOCATED
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN OCCURRING ALL DAY OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT RAIN ON OUTER CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. IT HAS
ACCUMULATED 2 TO 3 INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BUT EVEN THAT
HAS MAINLY BEEN ON GRASSY AREAS AND NOT PAVEMENT. IN MOST AREAS IT
HAS MELTED ON ROAD SURFACES WITH TEMPERATURES HANGING IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S.

AS OF 4 PM...BANDS OF SNOW WERE PICKING UP IN INTENSITY ACROSS
EASTERN MA IN THE BOSTON METRO AREA...AND IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CT. HIGH RESOLUTION WRF...INCLUDING THE ARW-EAST AND NMM... ALL
DEPICT THIS QUITE WELL. THEY SHOW IT EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO RI
AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MA BETWEEN NOW AND 8 PM. WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING DURING THAT TIME FRAME...WE COULD PICK UP
ANOTHER INCH OR TWO AND IT COULD BEGIN TO STICK ON ROADWAYS.
BETWEEN 8 PM AND MIDNIGHT...SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED AND EVENTUALLY END FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
DAYBREAK.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VORTICITY MAX NEAR
PHILADELPHIA THAT WILL BE CLOSING OFF A 500 MB LOW SOUTH OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AND A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM
JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK OF 40N 70W. THIS WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE OF SNOW LINGERING THE LONGEST FROM BLOCK ISLAND TO
NANTUCKET...UNTIL ABOUT DAYBREAK. STILL ONLY EXPECTING .1 TO .2
INCHES OF LIQUID...OR UP TO AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW THERE.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF GUSTY PERIOD OF UP TO 15-25 MPH OVERNIGHT AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE LOW AND STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. LOWS RANGING FROM TEENS NORTHWEST
TO NEAR 30 CAPE AND ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES SUNDAY...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD
INTO NEW ENGLAND. LINGERING CLOUDS IN SOUTHEAST MA WILL GIVE WAY
TO SUNSHINE BY MID TO LATE MORNING. ELSEWHERE A SUNNY DAY IS
FORECAST WITH HIGHS FROM 35 TO 40.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO START...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S BUT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
PREVENT THEM FROM FALLING FURTHER LATER AT NIGHT. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY IN FAR WESTERN
SECTIONS OF MA AND CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SOMETIME DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
NEXT WEEK. FIRST SYSTEM IS ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A WAVE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND FINALLY A SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY. OVERALL...A QUICK MOVING
RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY BEFORE NORTHWEST
FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
WITH IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

IT IS DIFFICULT TO ANY DETERMINISTIC MODEL OVER ANOTHER SINCE ALL
FALL WITHIN THE MULTI-CENTER ENSEMBLE SPREAD. NEVERTHELESS... THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH SOME...NOT ALL...FEATURES ACROSS
THE REGION THAN THE GFS AND HAS MORE SUPPORT FROM THE CMC/UKMET.
NOTHING SHOWS GOOD MULTI-DAY CONTINUITY AND THE TREND HAS BEEN BOTH
SLOWER AND QUICKER... DEPENDING ON THE SYSTEM OF INTEREST. THEREFOR
TRENDED TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

* SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH NW FLOW ALOFT
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM KEEPING MOST OF SUN PM DRY AND BRINGING PRECIP
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS
JUST NORTH OF SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT
THE ONSET LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT. EXPECT VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN ANY SNOW SHOWERS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND
GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE WIND...IT WILL
FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S.  CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS STILL MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
PRECIP TO BE CLOSER TO SNE WHILE THE GFS PUSHES EVEN FARTHER SOUTH
IMPACTING THE MID-ATLANTIC. OVERALL BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE PRECIP. MODELS ARE
SIMILAR ON THE TIMING BRINGING PRECIP IN OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING OUT
BY LATE WED MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA.

* WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL. BECAUSE OF THE MODEL
DISCREPANCIES HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...BUT BOTH
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE POINT TOWARDS WET WEATHER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LASTLY TEMPS MAY TURN MORE SPRING-LIKE BY
THURS/FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

TONIGHT... MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS EVENING...SLOWLY IMPROVING TO VFR FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT.
LOCAL IFR CIGS MAINLY EASTERN MA. LIGHT SNOW MAY NOT TOTALLY END
UNTIL NEAR DAYBREAK ALONG THE RI COAST AND SE COASTAL MA.

SUNDAY...VFR. HOWEVER MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER NEAR THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS UNTIL MID OR LATE MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. INCREASING MID CLOUDINESS THEN MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE LATE IN WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT TERMINALS. CHANCE OF A
SNOW SHOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT NEAR 20-25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR
SOUTH OF PIKE IN QUICK MOVING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN POSTED FOR MOST WATERS. SEAS WILL
CONTINUE ON THE ROUGH SIDE...FROM 5 TO 8 FEET ON ALL EXPOSED
WATERS AND 1 TO 4 FEET CLOSER TO SHORE. NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO
20-25 KNOTS THIS EVENING MAY DIMINISH BRIEFLY AND THEN PICK UP
AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE
DIMINISHING AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY BE SUBSIDING. LINGERING 5 FOOT
SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE FORECAST TO BE NO LONGER NEEDED EARLY
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THEY WILL NEED TO BE
HOISTED AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR A PORTION OF THE EASTERN MA
OUTER WATERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
MAY GUST TO 20 TO 25 KT TOWARD DAYBREAK AND SEAS MAY
CORRESPONDINGLY INCREASE TO NEAR 5 FT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATERS
EAST OF CAPE ANN.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO WEDNESDAY.

MONDAY...APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE SEAS. SCA MAY BE
NEEDED.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS
WILL KEEP SEAS UP ABOVE SCA.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SCA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON WED ALLOWING FOR SEAS
AND WINDS TO RELAX.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-235-237-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIELD/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FIELD
SHORT TERM...FIELD
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FIELD/DUNTEN
MARINE...FIELD/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 282028
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
428 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF NANTUCKET WILL CONTINUE MOVING
EAST WHILE A SECONDARY LOW FORMS SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL KEEP SOME LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND WELL INTO THE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
EASTERN USA WITH DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT. FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE LIGHT RAIN
AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY
APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK WITH MORE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
4 PM UPDATE...

INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED WELL OFFSHORE...ABOUT 200 MILES
EAST OF NANTUCKET WHERE THERE HAVE BEEN LIGHTNING STRIKES IN PAST
FEW HOURS. LUCKILY WE ARE ONLY HAVING TO DEAL WITH A WEAK TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THIS STORM AND LOCATED
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN OCCURRING ALL DAY OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT RAIN ON OUTER CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. IT HAS
ACCUMULATED 2 TO 3 INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BUT EVEN THAT
HAS MAINLY BEEN ON GRASSY AREAS AND NOT PAVEMENT. IN MOST AREAS IT
HAS MELTED ON ROAD SURFACES WITH TEMPERATURES HANGING IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S.

AS OF 4 PM...BANDS OF SNOW WERE PICKING UP IN INTENSITY ACROSS
EASTERN MA IN THE BOSTON METRO AREA...AND IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CT. HIGH RESOLUTION WRF...INCLUDING THE ARW-EAST AND NMM... ALL
DEPICT THIS QUITE WELL. THEY SHOW IT EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO RI
AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MA BETWEEN NOW AND 8 PM. WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING DURING THAT TIME FRAME...WE COULD PICK UP
ANOTHER INCH OR TWO AND IT COULD BEGIN TO STICK ON ROADWAYS.
BETWEEN 8 PM AND MIDNIGHT...SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED AND EVENTUALLY END FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
DAYBREAK.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VORTICITY MAX NEAR
PHILADELPHIA THAT WILL BE CLOSING OFF A 500 MB LOW SOUTH OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AND A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM
JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK OF 40N 70W. THIS WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE OF SNOW LINGERING THE LONGEST FROM BLOCK ISLAND TO
NANTUCKET...UNTIL ABOUT DAYBREAK. STILL ONLY EXPECTING .1 TO .2
INCHES OF LIQUID...OR UP TO AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW THERE.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF GUSTY PERIOD OF UP TO 15-25 MPH OVERNIGHT AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE LOW AND STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. LOWS RANGING FROM TEENS NORTHWEST
TO NEAR 30 CAPE AND ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES SUNDAY...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD
INTO NEW ENGLAND. LINGERING CLOUDS IN SOUTHEAST MA WILL GIVE WAY
TO SUNSHINE BY MID TO LATE MORNING. ELSEWHERE A SUNNY DAY IS
FORECAST WITH HIGHS FROM 35 TO 40.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO START...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S BUT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
PREVENT THEM FROM FALLING FURTHER LATER AT NIGHT. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY IN FAR WESTERN
SECTIONS OF MA AND CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SOMETIME DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
NEXT WEEK. FIRST SYSTEM IS ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A WAVE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND FINALLY A SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY. OVERALL...A QUICK MOVING
RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY BEFORE NORTHWEST
FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
WITH IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

IT IS DIFFICULT TO ANY DETERMINISTIC MODEL OVER ANOTHER SINCE ALL
FALL WITHIN THE MULTI-CENTER ENSEMBLE SPREAD. NEVERTHELESS... THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH SOME...NOT ALL...FEATURES ACROSS
THE REGION THAN THE GFS AND HAS MORE SUPPORT FROM THE CMC/UKMET.
NOTHING SHOWS GOOD MULTI-DAY CONTINUITY AND THE TREND HAS BEEN BOTH
SLOWER AND QUICKER... DEPENDING ON THE SYSTEM OF INTEREST. THEREFOR
TRENDED TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

* SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH NW FLOW ALOFT
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM KEEPING MOST OF SUN PM DRY AND BRINGING PRECIP
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS
JUST NORTH OF SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT
THE ONSET LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT. EXPECT VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN ANY SNOW SHOWERS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND
GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE WIND...IT WILL
FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S.  CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS STILL MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
PRECIP TO BE CLOSER TO SNE WHILE THE GFS PUSHES EVEN FARTHER SOUTH
IMPACTING THE MID-ATLANTIC. OVERALL BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE PRECIP. MODELS ARE
SIMILAR ON THE TIMING BRINGING PRECIP IN OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING OUT
BY LATE WED MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA.

* WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL. BECAUSE OF THE MODEL
DISCREPANCIES HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...BUT BOTH
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE POINT TOWARDS WET WEATHER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LASTLY TEMPS MAY TURN MORE SPRING-LIKE BY
THURS/FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

TONIGHT... MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
THIS EVENING...SLOWLY IMPROVING TO VFR FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT.
LOCAL IFR CIGS MAINLY EASTERN MA. LIGHT SNOW MAY NOT TOTALLY END
UNTIL NEAR DAYBREAK ALONG THE RI COAST AND SE COASTAL MA.

SUNDAY...VFR. HOWEVER MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER NEAR THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS UNTIL MID OR LATE MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. INCREASING MID CLOUDINESS THEN MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE LATE IN WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT TERMINALS. CHANCE OF A
SNOW SHOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT NEAR 20-25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR
SOUTH OF PIKE IN QUICK MOVING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN POSTED FOR MOST WATERS. SEAS WILL
CONTINUE ON THE ROUGH SIDE...FROM 5 TO 8 FEET ON ALL EXPOSED
WATERS AND 1 TO 4 FEET CLOSER TO SHORE. NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO
20-25 KNOTS THIS EVENING MAY DIMINISH BRIEFLY AND THEN PICK UP
AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE
DIMINISHING AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY BE SUBSIDING. LINGERING 5 FOOT
SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE FORECAST TO BE NO LONGER NEEDED EARLY
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THEY WILL NEED TO BE
HOISTED AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR A PORTION OF THE EASTERN MA
OUTER WATERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
MAY GUST TO 20 TO 25 KT TOWARD DAYBREAK AND SEAS MAY
CORRESPONDINGLY INCREASE TO NEAR 5 FT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATERS
EAST OF CAPE ANN.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO WEDNESDAY.

MONDAY...APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE SEAS. SCA MAY BE
NEEDED.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS
WILL KEEP SEAS UP ABOVE SCA.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SCA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON WED ALLOWING FOR SEAS
AND WINDS TO RELAX.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-235-237-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIELD/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FIELD
SHORT TERM...FIELD
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...FIELD/DUNTEN
MARINE...FIELD/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 282004
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
404 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE BUT A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE LOW WILL CAUSE SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER
BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRES MAY APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK WITH MORE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
4 PM UPDATE...

INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED WELL OFFSHORE...ABOUT 200 MILES
EAST OF NANTUCKET WHERE THERE HAVE BEEN LIGHTNING STRIKES IN PAST
FEW HOURS. LUCKILY WE ARE ONLY HAVING TO DEAL WITH A WEAK TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THIS STORM AND LOCATED
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN OCCURRING ALL DAY OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT RAIN ON OUTER CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. IT HAS
ACCUMULATED 2 TO 3 INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BUT EVEN THAT
HAS MAINLY BEEN ON GRASSY AREAS AND NOT PAVEMENT. IN MOST AREAS IT
HAS MELTED ON ROAD SURFACES WITH TEMPERATURES HANGING IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S.

AS OF 4 PM...BANDS OF SNOW WERE PICKING UP IN INTENSITY ACROSS
EASTERN MA IN THE BOSTON METRO AREA...AND IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CT. HIGH RESOLUTION WRF...INCLUDING THE ARW-EAST AND NMM... ALL
DEPICT THIS QUITE WELL. THEY SHOW IT EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO RI
AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MA BETWEEN NOW AND 8 PM. WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING DURING THAT TIME FRAME...WE COULD PICK UP
ANOTHER INCH OR TWO AND IT COULD BEGIN TO STICK ON ROADWAYS.
BETWEEN 8 PM AND MIDNIGHT...SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED AND EVENTUALLY END FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
DAYBREAK.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VORTICITY MAX NEAR
PHILADELPHIA THAT WILL BE CLOSING OFF A 500 MB LOW SOUTH OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AND A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM
JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK OF 40N 70W. THIS WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE OF SNOW LINGERING THE LONGEST FROM BLOCK ISLAND TO
NANTUCKET...UNTIL ABOUT DAYBREAK. STILL ONLY EXPECTING .1 TO .2
INCHES OF LIQUID...OR UP TO AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW THERE.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF GUSTY PERIOD OF UP TO 15-25 MPH OVERNIGHT AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE LOW AND STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. LOWS RANGING FROM TEENS NORTHWEST
TO NEAR 30 CAPE AND ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES SUNDAY...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD
INTO NEW ENGLAND. LINGERING CLOUDS IN SOUTHEAST MA WILL GIVE WAY
TO SUNSHINE BY MID TO LATE MORNING. ELSEWHERE A SUNNY DAY IS
FORECAST WITH HIGHS FROM 35 TO 40.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO START...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S BUT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
PREVENT THEM FROM FALLING FURTHER LATER AT NIGHT. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY IN FAR WESTERN
SECTIONS OF MA AND CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SOMETIME DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
NEXT WEEK. FIRST SYSTEM IS ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A WAVE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND FINALLY A SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY. OVERALL...A QUICK MOVING
RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY BEFORE NORTHWEST
FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
WITH IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

IT IS DIFFICULT TO ANY DETERMINISTIC MODEL OVER ANOTHER SINCE ALL
FALL WITHIN THE MULTI-CENTER ENSEMBLE SPREAD. NEVERTHELESS... THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH SOME...NOT ALL...FEATURES ACROSS
THE REGION THAN THE GFS AND HAS MORE SUPPORT FROM THE CMC/UKMET.
NOTHING SHOWS GOOD MULTI-DAY CONTINUITY AND THE TREND HAS BEEN BOTH
SLOWER AND QUICKER... DEPENDING ON THE SYSTEM OF INTEREST. THEREFOR
TRENDED TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

* SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH NW FLOW ALOFT
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM KEEPING MOST OF SUN PM DRY AND BRINGING PRECIP
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS
JUST NORTH OF SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT
THE ONSET LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT. EXPECT VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN ANY SNOW SHOWERS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND
GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE WIND...IT WILL
FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S.  CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS STILL MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
PRECIP TO BE CLOSER TO SNE WHILE THE GFS PUSHES EVEN FARTHER SOUTH
IMPACTING THE MID-ATLANTIC. OVERALL BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE PRECIP. MODELS ARE
SIMILAR ON THE TIMING BRINGING PRECIP IN OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING OUT
BY LATE WED MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA.

* WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL. BECAUSE OF THE MODEL
DISCREPANCIES HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...BUT BOTH
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE POINT TOWARDS WET WEATHER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LASTLY TEMPS MAY TURN MORE SPRING-LIKE BY
THURS/FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THIS AFTERNOON... MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS IN SNOW MOST AREAS
EXCEPT RAIN ON NANTUCKET...CHANGING TO SNOW LATE. LOCAL IFR CIGS
IN RI AND EASTERN MA.

TONIGHT... MIXED MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUE BEFORE MIDNIGHT
WITH AREAS OF SNOW IN THE EAST. TREND SHIFTS TO VFR AFTER MIDNIGHT
ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.

SUNDAY...VFR. IFR MAY LINGER NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS IN THE
MORNING BUT WITH THE TREND TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LINGERING MVFR ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. VFR
EVERYWHERE ELSE.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR
20-25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR
SOUTH OF PIKE IN QUICK MOVING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY.

NORTH WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE...FREQUENTLY
GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON MOST MA WATERS AND ON RI SOUND. GUSTS TO
30 KNOTS POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER WATERS EAST OF MA. SEAS WILL BE
5-8 FEET ON ALL EXPOSED WATERS AND 1 TO 4 FEET ON THE REMAINING
WATERS.

WINDS ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS DIMINISH THIS EVENING WHILE WINDS
FARTHER OFFSHORE MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TO FALL BELOW 25
KNOTS. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS WE EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN AT THEIR
DAYTIME LEVELS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
DIMINISH AT THAT TIME. LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED TO ALL WATERS EXCEPT
NARRAGANSETT BAY...AND EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY FOR MOST WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT AS
WINDS BACK TO SW. APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL INCREASE SEAS
IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP
SEAS UP ABOVE SCA.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SCA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON WED ALLOWING FOR SEAS
AND WINDS TO RELAX.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-235-237-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/GAF
NEAR TERM...GAF
SHORT TERM...GAF
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...DUNTEN/GAF
MARINE...DUNTEN/GAF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 282004
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
404 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE BUT A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE LOW WILL CAUSE SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER
BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRES MAY APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK WITH MORE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
4 PM UPDATE...

INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED WELL OFFSHORE...ABOUT 200 MILES
EAST OF NANTUCKET WHERE THERE HAVE BEEN LIGHTNING STRIKES IN PAST
FEW HOURS. LUCKILY WE ARE ONLY HAVING TO DEAL WITH A WEAK TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THIS STORM AND LOCATED
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN OCCURRING ALL DAY OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT RAIN ON OUTER CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. IT HAS
ACCUMULATED 2 TO 3 INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BUT EVEN THAT
HAS MAINLY BEEN ON GRASSY AREAS AND NOT PAVEMENT. IN MOST AREAS IT
HAS MELTED ON ROAD SURFACES WITH TEMPERATURES HANGING IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S.

AS OF 4 PM...BANDS OF SNOW WERE PICKING UP IN INTENSITY ACROSS
EASTERN MA IN THE BOSTON METRO AREA...AND IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CT. HIGH RESOLUTION WRF...INCLUDING THE ARW-EAST AND NMM... ALL
DEPICT THIS QUITE WELL. THEY SHOW IT EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO RI
AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MA BETWEEN NOW AND 8 PM. WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING DURING THAT TIME FRAME...WE COULD PICK UP
ANOTHER INCH OR TWO AND IT COULD BEGIN TO STICK ON ROADWAYS.
BETWEEN 8 PM AND MIDNIGHT...SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED AND EVENTUALLY END FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
DAYBREAK.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VORTICITY MAX NEAR
PHILADELPHIA THAT WILL BE CLOSING OFF A 500 MB LOW SOUTH OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AND A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM
JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK OF 40N 70W. THIS WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE OF SNOW LINGERING THE LONGEST FROM BLOCK ISLAND TO
NANTUCKET...UNTIL ABOUT DAYBREAK. STILL ONLY EXPECTING .1 TO .2
INCHES OF LIQUID...OR UP TO AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW THERE.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF GUSTY PERIOD OF UP TO 15-25 MPH OVERNIGHT AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE LOW AND STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. LOWS RANGING FROM TEENS NORTHWEST
TO NEAR 30 CAPE AND ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES SUNDAY...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD
INTO NEW ENGLAND. LINGERING CLOUDS IN SOUTHEAST MA WILL GIVE WAY
TO SUNSHINE BY MID TO LATE MORNING. ELSEWHERE A SUNNY DAY IS
FORECAST WITH HIGHS FROM 35 TO 40.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO START...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S BUT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
PREVENT THEM FROM FALLING FURTHER LATER AT NIGHT. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY IN FAR WESTERN
SECTIONS OF MA AND CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SOMETIME DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
NEXT WEEK. FIRST SYSTEM IS ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A WAVE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND FINALLY A SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY. OVERALL...A QUICK MOVING
RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY BEFORE NORTHWEST
FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
WITH IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

IT IS DIFFICULT TO ANY DETERMINISTIC MODEL OVER ANOTHER SINCE ALL
FALL WITHIN THE MULTI-CENTER ENSEMBLE SPREAD. NEVERTHELESS... THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH SOME...NOT ALL...FEATURES ACROSS
THE REGION THAN THE GFS AND HAS MORE SUPPORT FROM THE CMC/UKMET.
NOTHING SHOWS GOOD MULTI-DAY CONTINUITY AND THE TREND HAS BEEN BOTH
SLOWER AND QUICKER... DEPENDING ON THE SYSTEM OF INTEREST. THEREFOR
TRENDED TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

* SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH NW FLOW ALOFT
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM KEEPING MOST OF SUN PM DRY AND BRINGING PRECIP
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS
JUST NORTH OF SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT
THE ONSET LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT. EXPECT VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN ANY SNOW SHOWERS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND
GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE WIND...IT WILL
FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S.  CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS STILL MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
PRECIP TO BE CLOSER TO SNE WHILE THE GFS PUSHES EVEN FARTHER SOUTH
IMPACTING THE MID-ATLANTIC. OVERALL BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE PRECIP. MODELS ARE
SIMILAR ON THE TIMING BRINGING PRECIP IN OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING OUT
BY LATE WED MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA.

* WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL. BECAUSE OF THE MODEL
DISCREPANCIES HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...BUT BOTH
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE POINT TOWARDS WET WEATHER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LASTLY TEMPS MAY TURN MORE SPRING-LIKE BY
THURS/FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THIS AFTERNOON... MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS IN SNOW MOST AREAS
EXCEPT RAIN ON NANTUCKET...CHANGING TO SNOW LATE. LOCAL IFR CIGS
IN RI AND EASTERN MA.

TONIGHT... MIXED MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUE BEFORE MIDNIGHT
WITH AREAS OF SNOW IN THE EAST. TREND SHIFTS TO VFR AFTER MIDNIGHT
ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.

SUNDAY...VFR. IFR MAY LINGER NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS IN THE
MORNING BUT WITH THE TREND TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LINGERING MVFR ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. VFR
EVERYWHERE ELSE.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR
20-25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR
SOUTH OF PIKE IN QUICK MOVING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY.

NORTH WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE...FREQUENTLY
GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON MOST MA WATERS AND ON RI SOUND. GUSTS TO
30 KNOTS POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER WATERS EAST OF MA. SEAS WILL BE
5-8 FEET ON ALL EXPOSED WATERS AND 1 TO 4 FEET ON THE REMAINING
WATERS.

WINDS ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS DIMINISH THIS EVENING WHILE WINDS
FARTHER OFFSHORE MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TO FALL BELOW 25
KNOTS. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS WE EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN AT THEIR
DAYTIME LEVELS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
DIMINISH AT THAT TIME. LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED TO ALL WATERS EXCEPT
NARRAGANSETT BAY...AND EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY FOR MOST WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT AS
WINDS BACK TO SW. APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL INCREASE SEAS
IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP
SEAS UP ABOVE SCA.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SCA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON WED ALLOWING FOR SEAS
AND WINDS TO RELAX.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-235-237-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/GAF
NEAR TERM...GAF
SHORT TERM...GAF
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...DUNTEN/GAF
MARINE...DUNTEN/GAF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 282004
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
404 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE BUT A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE LOW WILL CAUSE SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER
BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRES MAY APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK WITH MORE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
4 PM UPDATE...

INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED WELL OFFSHORE...ABOUT 200 MILES
EAST OF NANTUCKET WHERE THERE HAVE BEEN LIGHTNING STRIKES IN PAST
FEW HOURS. LUCKILY WE ARE ONLY HAVING TO DEAL WITH A WEAK TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THIS STORM AND LOCATED
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN OCCURRING ALL DAY OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT RAIN ON OUTER CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. IT HAS
ACCUMULATED 2 TO 3 INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BUT EVEN THAT
HAS MAINLY BEEN ON GRASSY AREAS AND NOT PAVEMENT. IN MOST AREAS IT
HAS MELTED ON ROAD SURFACES WITH TEMPERATURES HANGING IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S.

AS OF 4 PM...BANDS OF SNOW WERE PICKING UP IN INTENSITY ACROSS
EASTERN MA IN THE BOSTON METRO AREA...AND IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CT. HIGH RESOLUTION WRF...INCLUDING THE ARW-EAST AND NMM... ALL
DEPICT THIS QUITE WELL. THEY SHOW IT EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO RI
AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MA BETWEEN NOW AND 8 PM. WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING DURING THAT TIME FRAME...WE COULD PICK UP
ANOTHER INCH OR TWO AND IT COULD BEGIN TO STICK ON ROADWAYS.
BETWEEN 8 PM AND MIDNIGHT...SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED AND EVENTUALLY END FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
DAYBREAK.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VORTICITY MAX NEAR
PHILADELPHIA THAT WILL BE CLOSING OFF A 500 MB LOW SOUTH OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AND A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM
JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK OF 40N 70W. THIS WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE OF SNOW LINGERING THE LONGEST FROM BLOCK ISLAND TO
NANTUCKET...UNTIL ABOUT DAYBREAK. STILL ONLY EXPECTING .1 TO .2
INCHES OF LIQUID...OR UP TO AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW THERE.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF GUSTY PERIOD OF UP TO 15-25 MPH OVERNIGHT AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE LOW AND STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. LOWS RANGING FROM TEENS NORTHWEST
TO NEAR 30 CAPE AND ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES SUNDAY...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD
INTO NEW ENGLAND. LINGERING CLOUDS IN SOUTHEAST MA WILL GIVE WAY
TO SUNSHINE BY MID TO LATE MORNING. ELSEWHERE A SUNNY DAY IS
FORECAST WITH HIGHS FROM 35 TO 40.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO START...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S BUT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
PREVENT THEM FROM FALLING FURTHER LATER AT NIGHT. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY IN FAR WESTERN
SECTIONS OF MA AND CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SOMETIME DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
NEXT WEEK. FIRST SYSTEM IS ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A WAVE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND FINALLY A SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY. OVERALL...A QUICK MOVING
RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY BEFORE NORTHWEST
FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
WITH IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

IT IS DIFFICULT TO ANY DETERMINISTIC MODEL OVER ANOTHER SINCE ALL
FALL WITHIN THE MULTI-CENTER ENSEMBLE SPREAD. NEVERTHELESS... THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH SOME...NOT ALL...FEATURES ACROSS
THE REGION THAN THE GFS AND HAS MORE SUPPORT FROM THE CMC/UKMET.
NOTHING SHOWS GOOD MULTI-DAY CONTINUITY AND THE TREND HAS BEEN BOTH
SLOWER AND QUICKER... DEPENDING ON THE SYSTEM OF INTEREST. THEREFOR
TRENDED TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

* SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH NW FLOW ALOFT
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM KEEPING MOST OF SUN PM DRY AND BRINGING PRECIP
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS
JUST NORTH OF SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT
THE ONSET LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT. EXPECT VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN ANY SNOW SHOWERS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND
GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE WIND...IT WILL
FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S.  CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS STILL MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
PRECIP TO BE CLOSER TO SNE WHILE THE GFS PUSHES EVEN FARTHER SOUTH
IMPACTING THE MID-ATLANTIC. OVERALL BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE PRECIP. MODELS ARE
SIMILAR ON THE TIMING BRINGING PRECIP IN OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING OUT
BY LATE WED MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA.

* WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL. BECAUSE OF THE MODEL
DISCREPANCIES HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...BUT BOTH
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE POINT TOWARDS WET WEATHER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LASTLY TEMPS MAY TURN MORE SPRING-LIKE BY
THURS/FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THIS AFTERNOON... MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS IN SNOW MOST AREAS
EXCEPT RAIN ON NANTUCKET...CHANGING TO SNOW LATE. LOCAL IFR CIGS
IN RI AND EASTERN MA.

TONIGHT... MIXED MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUE BEFORE MIDNIGHT
WITH AREAS OF SNOW IN THE EAST. TREND SHIFTS TO VFR AFTER MIDNIGHT
ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.

SUNDAY...VFR. IFR MAY LINGER NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS IN THE
MORNING BUT WITH THE TREND TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LINGERING MVFR ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. VFR
EVERYWHERE ELSE.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR
20-25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR
SOUTH OF PIKE IN QUICK MOVING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY.

NORTH WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE...FREQUENTLY
GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON MOST MA WATERS AND ON RI SOUND. GUSTS TO
30 KNOTS POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER WATERS EAST OF MA. SEAS WILL BE
5-8 FEET ON ALL EXPOSED WATERS AND 1 TO 4 FEET ON THE REMAINING
WATERS.

WINDS ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS DIMINISH THIS EVENING WHILE WINDS
FARTHER OFFSHORE MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TO FALL BELOW 25
KNOTS. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS WE EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN AT THEIR
DAYTIME LEVELS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
DIMINISH AT THAT TIME. LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED TO ALL WATERS EXCEPT
NARRAGANSETT BAY...AND EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY FOR MOST WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT AS
WINDS BACK TO SW. APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL INCREASE SEAS
IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP
SEAS UP ABOVE SCA.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SCA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON WED ALLOWING FOR SEAS
AND WINDS TO RELAX.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-235-237-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/GAF
NEAR TERM...GAF
SHORT TERM...GAF
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...DUNTEN/GAF
MARINE...DUNTEN/GAF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 282004
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
404 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE BUT A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE LOW WILL CAUSE SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER
BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRES MAY APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK WITH MORE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
4 PM UPDATE...

INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED WELL OFFSHORE...ABOUT 200 MILES
EAST OF NANTUCKET WHERE THERE HAVE BEEN LIGHTNING STRIKES IN PAST
FEW HOURS. LUCKILY WE ARE ONLY HAVING TO DEAL WITH A WEAK TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THIS STORM AND LOCATED
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN OCCURRING ALL DAY OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT RAIN ON OUTER CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. IT HAS
ACCUMULATED 2 TO 3 INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BUT EVEN THAT
HAS MAINLY BEEN ON GRASSY AREAS AND NOT PAVEMENT. IN MOST AREAS IT
HAS MELTED ON ROAD SURFACES WITH TEMPERATURES HANGING IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S.

AS OF 4 PM...BANDS OF SNOW WERE PICKING UP IN INTENSITY ACROSS
EASTERN MA IN THE BOSTON METRO AREA...AND IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CT. HIGH RESOLUTION WRF...INCLUDING THE ARW-EAST AND NMM... ALL
DEPICT THIS QUITE WELL. THEY SHOW IT EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO RI
AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MA BETWEEN NOW AND 8 PM. WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING DURING THAT TIME FRAME...WE COULD PICK UP
ANOTHER INCH OR TWO AND IT COULD BEGIN TO STICK ON ROADWAYS.
BETWEEN 8 PM AND MIDNIGHT...SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED AND EVENTUALLY END FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
DAYBREAK.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VORTICITY MAX NEAR
PHILADELPHIA THAT WILL BE CLOSING OFF A 500 MB LOW SOUTH OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AND A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM
JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK OF 40N 70W. THIS WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE OF SNOW LINGERING THE LONGEST FROM BLOCK ISLAND TO
NANTUCKET...UNTIL ABOUT DAYBREAK. STILL ONLY EXPECTING .1 TO .2
INCHES OF LIQUID...OR UP TO AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW THERE.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF GUSTY PERIOD OF UP TO 15-25 MPH OVERNIGHT AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE LOW AND STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. LOWS RANGING FROM TEENS NORTHWEST
TO NEAR 30 CAPE AND ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES SUNDAY...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD
INTO NEW ENGLAND. LINGERING CLOUDS IN SOUTHEAST MA WILL GIVE WAY
TO SUNSHINE BY MID TO LATE MORNING. ELSEWHERE A SUNNY DAY IS
FORECAST WITH HIGHS FROM 35 TO 40.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO START...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S BUT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
PREVENT THEM FROM FALLING FURTHER LATER AT NIGHT. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY IN FAR WESTERN
SECTIONS OF MA AND CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SOMETIME DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
NEXT WEEK. FIRST SYSTEM IS ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A WAVE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND FINALLY A SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY. OVERALL...A QUICK MOVING
RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY BEFORE NORTHWEST
FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
WITH IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

IT IS DIFFICULT TO ANY DETERMINISTIC MODEL OVER ANOTHER SINCE ALL
FALL WITHIN THE MULTI-CENTER ENSEMBLE SPREAD. NEVERTHELESS... THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH SOME...NOT ALL...FEATURES ACROSS
THE REGION THAN THE GFS AND HAS MORE SUPPORT FROM THE CMC/UKMET.
NOTHING SHOWS GOOD MULTI-DAY CONTINUITY AND THE TREND HAS BEEN BOTH
SLOWER AND QUICKER... DEPENDING ON THE SYSTEM OF INTEREST. THEREFOR
TRENDED TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

* SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH NW FLOW ALOFT
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM KEEPING MOST OF SUN PM DRY AND BRINGING PRECIP
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS
JUST NORTH OF SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT
THE ONSET LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT. EXPECT VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN ANY SNOW SHOWERS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND
GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE WIND...IT WILL
FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S.  CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS STILL MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
PRECIP TO BE CLOSER TO SNE WHILE THE GFS PUSHES EVEN FARTHER SOUTH
IMPACTING THE MID-ATLANTIC. OVERALL BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE PRECIP. MODELS ARE
SIMILAR ON THE TIMING BRINGING PRECIP IN OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING OUT
BY LATE WED MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA.

* WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL. BECAUSE OF THE MODEL
DISCREPANCIES HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...BUT BOTH
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE POINT TOWARDS WET WEATHER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LASTLY TEMPS MAY TURN MORE SPRING-LIKE BY
THURS/FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THIS AFTERNOON... MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS IN SNOW MOST AREAS
EXCEPT RAIN ON NANTUCKET...CHANGING TO SNOW LATE. LOCAL IFR CIGS
IN RI AND EASTERN MA.

TONIGHT... MIXED MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUE BEFORE MIDNIGHT
WITH AREAS OF SNOW IN THE EAST. TREND SHIFTS TO VFR AFTER MIDNIGHT
ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.

SUNDAY...VFR. IFR MAY LINGER NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS IN THE
MORNING BUT WITH THE TREND TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LINGERING MVFR ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. VFR
EVERYWHERE ELSE.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR
20-25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR
SOUTH OF PIKE IN QUICK MOVING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY.

NORTH WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE...FREQUENTLY
GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON MOST MA WATERS AND ON RI SOUND. GUSTS TO
30 KNOTS POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER WATERS EAST OF MA. SEAS WILL BE
5-8 FEET ON ALL EXPOSED WATERS AND 1 TO 4 FEET ON THE REMAINING
WATERS.

WINDS ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS DIMINISH THIS EVENING WHILE WINDS
FARTHER OFFSHORE MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TO FALL BELOW 25
KNOTS. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS WE EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN AT THEIR
DAYTIME LEVELS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
DIMINISH AT THAT TIME. LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED TO ALL WATERS EXCEPT
NARRAGANSETT BAY...AND EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY FOR MOST WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT AS
WINDS BACK TO SW. APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL INCREASE SEAS
IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP
SEAS UP ABOVE SCA.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SCA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON WED ALLOWING FOR SEAS
AND WINDS TO RELAX.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-235-237-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/GAF
NEAR TERM...GAF
SHORT TERM...GAF
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...DUNTEN/GAF
MARINE...DUNTEN/GAF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 281806
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
206 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE BUT A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE LOW WILL CAUSE SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER
BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRES MAY APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK WITH MORE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
2 PM UPDATE...

FORECAST PRETTY MUCH STILL ON TRACK. HAVE RECEIVED A FEW 2-INCH
REPORTS BUT MAINLY FROM GRASSY SURFACES AND NOT PAVEMENT. BAND OF
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION STRETCHED ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
AS OF 2 PM BUT THERE WERE OTHER BANDS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGE
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW COVERING MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WE ARE
WATCHING AN INCREASING AREA OF SNOW COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW THIS AREA MOVING
EASTWARD INTO RI AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MA BETWEEN 3 PM
AND 6 PM. THEN...IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND MAINLY CONCENTRATED ALONG THE
SOUTH COASTS OF RI AND MA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL BELOW FREEZING TOWARD EVENING IN
SOUTHEAST MA AND RI...SO SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE SNOW STICKING TO
ROAD SURFACES.

OVERALL STORM TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE IN
SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.
OFFSHORE LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES WHILE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS MAINTAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR PCPN WHILE
COOLING NIGHTIME TEMPS WOULD FAVOR SNOW OR RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.
THE PIVOTING SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
ANY PCPN OVER OUR AREA DIMINISHING. BASED ON EXPECTED TEMPS AND
LIGHT PCPN THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT WE PROJECT STORM TOTAL OF 1-3
INCHES IN THE HILLS AND AROUND 1 INCH IN THE LOWER TERRAIN.

NORTH WINDS WILL PULL /YET AGAIN/ COLDER THAN NORMAL AIR ACROSS
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN IN THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S. CLOUDS MAY SLOW COOLING A LITTLE...SO WE FAVORED 15
TO 25 DEGREES.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA SURFACE AND ALOFT. THIS
SHOULD BRING SUNNY SKIES MOST AREAS. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING IN EASTERN MASS. TEMPS ALOFT SUGGEST HIGHS
IN THE 30S...BUT WARM ADVECTION LATE IN THE DAY MAY NUDGE VALUES
TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SOMETIME DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
NEXT WEEK. FIRST SYSTEM IS ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A WAVE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND FINALLY A SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY. OVERALL...A QUICK MOVING
RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY BEFORE NORTHWEST
FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
WITH IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

IT IS DIFFICULT TO ANY DETERMINISTIC MODEL OVER ANOTHER SINCE ALL
FALL WITHIN THE MULTI-CENTER ENSEMBLE SPREAD. NEVERTHELESS... THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH SOME...NOT ALL...FEATURES ACROSS
THE REGION THAN THE GFS AND HAS MORE SUPPORT FROM THE CMC/UKMET.
NOTHING SHOWS GOOD MULTI-DAY CONTINUITY AND THE TREND HAS BEEN BOTH
SLOWER AND QUICKER... DEPENDING ON THE SYSTEM OF INTEREST. THEREFOR
TRENDED TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

* SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH NW FLOW ALOFT
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM KEEPING MOST OF SUN PM DRY AND BRINGING PRECIP
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS
JUST NORTH OF SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT
THE ONSET LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT. EXPECT VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN ANY SNOW SHOWERS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND
GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE WIND...IT WILL
FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S.  CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS STILL MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
PRECIP TO BE CLOSER TO SNE WHILE THE GFS PUSHES EVEN FARTHER SOUTH
IMPACTING THE MID-ATLANTIC. OVERALL BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE PRECIP. MODELS ARE
SIMILAR ON THE TIMING BRINGING PRECIP IN OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING OUT
BY LATE WED MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA.

* WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL. BECAUSE OF THE MODEL
DISCREPANCIES HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...BUT BOTH
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE POINT TOWARDS WET WEATHER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LASTLY TEMPS MAY TURN MORE SPRING-LIKE BY
THURS/FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THIS AFTERNOON... MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS IN SNOW MOST AREAS
EXCEPT RAIN ON NANTUCKET...CHANGING TO SNOW LATE. LOCAL IFR CIGS
IN RI AND EASTERN MA.

TONIGHT... MIXED MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUE BEFORE MIDNIGHT
WITH AREAS OF SNOW IN THE EAST. TREND SHIFTS TO VFR AFTER MIDNIGHT
ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.

SUNDAY...VFR. IFR MAY LINGER NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS IN THE
MORNING BUT WITH THE TREND TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LINGERING MVFR ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. VFR
EVERYWHERE ELSE.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR
20-25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR
SOUTH OF PIKE IN QUICK MOVING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY.

NORTH WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE...FREQUENTLY
GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON MOST MA WATERS AND ON RI SOUND. GUSTS TO
30 KNOTS POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER WATERS EAST OF MA. SEAS WILL BE
5-8 FEET ON ALL EXPOSED WATERS AND 1 TO 4 FEET ON THE REMAINING
WATERS.

WINDS ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS DIMINISH THIS EVENING WHILE WINDS
FARTHER OFFSHORE MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TO FALL BELOW 25
KNOTS. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS WE EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN AT THEIR
DAYTIME LEVELS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
DIMINISH AT THAT TIME. LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED TO ALL WATERS EXCEPT
NARRAGANSETT BAY...AND EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY FOR MOST WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT AS
WINDS BACK TO SW. APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL INCREASE SEAS
IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP
SEAS UP ABOVE SCA.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SCA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON WED ALLOWING FOR SEAS
AND WINDS TO RELAX.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-235-237-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN/GAF
NEAR TERM...GAF
SHORT TERM...WTB/GAF
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN/GAF
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN/GAF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 281806
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
206 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE BUT A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE LOW WILL CAUSE SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER
BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRES MAY APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK WITH MORE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
2 PM UPDATE...

FORECAST PRETTY MUCH STILL ON TRACK. HAVE RECEIVED A FEW 2-INCH
REPORTS BUT MAINLY FROM GRASSY SURFACES AND NOT PAVEMENT. BAND OF
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION STRETCHED ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
AS OF 2 PM BUT THERE WERE OTHER BANDS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGE
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW COVERING MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WE ARE
WATCHING AN INCREASING AREA OF SNOW COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW THIS AREA MOVING
EASTWARD INTO RI AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MA BETWEEN 3 PM
AND 6 PM. THEN...IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND MAINLY CONCENTRATED ALONG THE
SOUTH COASTS OF RI AND MA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL BELOW FREEZING TOWARD EVENING IN
SOUTHEAST MA AND RI...SO SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE SNOW STICKING TO
ROAD SURFACES.

OVERALL STORM TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE IN
SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.
OFFSHORE LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES WHILE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS MAINTAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR PCPN WHILE
COOLING NIGHTIME TEMPS WOULD FAVOR SNOW OR RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.
THE PIVOTING SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
ANY PCPN OVER OUR AREA DIMINISHING. BASED ON EXPECTED TEMPS AND
LIGHT PCPN THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT WE PROJECT STORM TOTAL OF 1-3
INCHES IN THE HILLS AND AROUND 1 INCH IN THE LOWER TERRAIN.

NORTH WINDS WILL PULL /YET AGAIN/ COLDER THAN NORMAL AIR ACROSS
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN IN THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S. CLOUDS MAY SLOW COOLING A LITTLE...SO WE FAVORED 15
TO 25 DEGREES.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA SURFACE AND ALOFT. THIS
SHOULD BRING SUNNY SKIES MOST AREAS. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING IN EASTERN MASS. TEMPS ALOFT SUGGEST HIGHS
IN THE 30S...BUT WARM ADVECTION LATE IN THE DAY MAY NUDGE VALUES
TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SOMETIME DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
NEXT WEEK. FIRST SYSTEM IS ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A WAVE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND FINALLY A SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY. OVERALL...A QUICK MOVING
RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY BEFORE NORTHWEST
FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
WITH IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

IT IS DIFFICULT TO ANY DETERMINISTIC MODEL OVER ANOTHER SINCE ALL
FALL WITHIN THE MULTI-CENTER ENSEMBLE SPREAD. NEVERTHELESS... THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH SOME...NOT ALL...FEATURES ACROSS
THE REGION THAN THE GFS AND HAS MORE SUPPORT FROM THE CMC/UKMET.
NOTHING SHOWS GOOD MULTI-DAY CONTINUITY AND THE TREND HAS BEEN BOTH
SLOWER AND QUICKER... DEPENDING ON THE SYSTEM OF INTEREST. THEREFOR
TRENDED TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

* SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH NW FLOW ALOFT
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM KEEPING MOST OF SUN PM DRY AND BRINGING PRECIP
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS
JUST NORTH OF SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT
THE ONSET LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT. EXPECT VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN ANY SNOW SHOWERS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND
GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE WIND...IT WILL
FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S.  CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS STILL MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
PRECIP TO BE CLOSER TO SNE WHILE THE GFS PUSHES EVEN FARTHER SOUTH
IMPACTING THE MID-ATLANTIC. OVERALL BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE PRECIP. MODELS ARE
SIMILAR ON THE TIMING BRINGING PRECIP IN OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING OUT
BY LATE WED MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA.

* WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL. BECAUSE OF THE MODEL
DISCREPANCIES HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...BUT BOTH
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE POINT TOWARDS WET WEATHER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LASTLY TEMPS MAY TURN MORE SPRING-LIKE BY
THURS/FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THIS AFTERNOON... MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS IN SNOW MOST AREAS
EXCEPT RAIN ON NANTUCKET...CHANGING TO SNOW LATE. LOCAL IFR CIGS
IN RI AND EASTERN MA.

TONIGHT... MIXED MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUE BEFORE MIDNIGHT
WITH AREAS OF SNOW IN THE EAST. TREND SHIFTS TO VFR AFTER MIDNIGHT
ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.

SUNDAY...VFR. IFR MAY LINGER NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS IN THE
MORNING BUT WITH THE TREND TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LINGERING MVFR ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. VFR
EVERYWHERE ELSE.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR
20-25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR
SOUTH OF PIKE IN QUICK MOVING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY.

NORTH WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE...FREQUENTLY
GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON MOST MA WATERS AND ON RI SOUND. GUSTS TO
30 KNOTS POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER WATERS EAST OF MA. SEAS WILL BE
5-8 FEET ON ALL EXPOSED WATERS AND 1 TO 4 FEET ON THE REMAINING
WATERS.

WINDS ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS DIMINISH THIS EVENING WHILE WINDS
FARTHER OFFSHORE MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TO FALL BELOW 25
KNOTS. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS WE EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN AT THEIR
DAYTIME LEVELS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
DIMINISH AT THAT TIME. LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED TO ALL WATERS EXCEPT
NARRAGANSETT BAY...AND EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY FOR MOST WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT AS
WINDS BACK TO SW. APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL INCREASE SEAS
IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP
SEAS UP ABOVE SCA.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SCA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON WED ALLOWING FOR SEAS
AND WINDS TO RELAX.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-235-237-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN/GAF
NEAR TERM...GAF
SHORT TERM...WTB/GAF
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN/GAF
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN/GAF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 281806
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
206 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE BUT A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE LOW WILL CAUSE SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER
BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRES MAY APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK WITH MORE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
2 PM UPDATE...

FORECAST PRETTY MUCH STILL ON TRACK. HAVE RECEIVED A FEW 2-INCH
REPORTS BUT MAINLY FROM GRASSY SURFACES AND NOT PAVEMENT. BAND OF
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION STRETCHED ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
AS OF 2 PM BUT THERE WERE OTHER BANDS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGE
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW COVERING MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WE ARE
WATCHING AN INCREASING AREA OF SNOW COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW THIS AREA MOVING
EASTWARD INTO RI AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MA BETWEEN 3 PM
AND 6 PM. THEN...IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND MAINLY CONCENTRATED ALONG THE
SOUTH COASTS OF RI AND MA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL BELOW FREEZING TOWARD EVENING IN
SOUTHEAST MA AND RI...SO SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE SNOW STICKING TO
ROAD SURFACES.

OVERALL STORM TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE IN
SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.
OFFSHORE LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES WHILE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS MAINTAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR PCPN WHILE
COOLING NIGHTIME TEMPS WOULD FAVOR SNOW OR RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.
THE PIVOTING SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
ANY PCPN OVER OUR AREA DIMINISHING. BASED ON EXPECTED TEMPS AND
LIGHT PCPN THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT WE PROJECT STORM TOTAL OF 1-3
INCHES IN THE HILLS AND AROUND 1 INCH IN THE LOWER TERRAIN.

NORTH WINDS WILL PULL /YET AGAIN/ COLDER THAN NORMAL AIR ACROSS
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN IN THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S. CLOUDS MAY SLOW COOLING A LITTLE...SO WE FAVORED 15
TO 25 DEGREES.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA SURFACE AND ALOFT. THIS
SHOULD BRING SUNNY SKIES MOST AREAS. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING IN EASTERN MASS. TEMPS ALOFT SUGGEST HIGHS
IN THE 30S...BUT WARM ADVECTION LATE IN THE DAY MAY NUDGE VALUES
TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SOMETIME DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
NEXT WEEK. FIRST SYSTEM IS ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A WAVE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND FINALLY A SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY. OVERALL...A QUICK MOVING
RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY BEFORE NORTHWEST
FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
WITH IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

IT IS DIFFICULT TO ANY DETERMINISTIC MODEL OVER ANOTHER SINCE ALL
FALL WITHIN THE MULTI-CENTER ENSEMBLE SPREAD. NEVERTHELESS... THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH SOME...NOT ALL...FEATURES ACROSS
THE REGION THAN THE GFS AND HAS MORE SUPPORT FROM THE CMC/UKMET.
NOTHING SHOWS GOOD MULTI-DAY CONTINUITY AND THE TREND HAS BEEN BOTH
SLOWER AND QUICKER... DEPENDING ON THE SYSTEM OF INTEREST. THEREFOR
TRENDED TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

* SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH NW FLOW ALOFT
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM KEEPING MOST OF SUN PM DRY AND BRINGING PRECIP
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS
JUST NORTH OF SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT
THE ONSET LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT. EXPECT VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN ANY SNOW SHOWERS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND
GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE WIND...IT WILL
FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S.  CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS STILL MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
PRECIP TO BE CLOSER TO SNE WHILE THE GFS PUSHES EVEN FARTHER SOUTH
IMPACTING THE MID-ATLANTIC. OVERALL BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE PRECIP. MODELS ARE
SIMILAR ON THE TIMING BRINGING PRECIP IN OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING OUT
BY LATE WED MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA.

* WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL. BECAUSE OF THE MODEL
DISCREPANCIES HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...BUT BOTH
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE POINT TOWARDS WET WEATHER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LASTLY TEMPS MAY TURN MORE SPRING-LIKE BY
THURS/FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THIS AFTERNOON... MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS IN SNOW MOST AREAS
EXCEPT RAIN ON NANTUCKET...CHANGING TO SNOW LATE. LOCAL IFR CIGS
IN RI AND EASTERN MA.

TONIGHT... MIXED MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUE BEFORE MIDNIGHT
WITH AREAS OF SNOW IN THE EAST. TREND SHIFTS TO VFR AFTER MIDNIGHT
ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.

SUNDAY...VFR. IFR MAY LINGER NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS IN THE
MORNING BUT WITH THE TREND TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LINGERING MVFR ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. VFR
EVERYWHERE ELSE.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR
20-25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR
SOUTH OF PIKE IN QUICK MOVING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY.

NORTH WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE...FREQUENTLY
GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON MOST MA WATERS AND ON RI SOUND. GUSTS TO
30 KNOTS POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER WATERS EAST OF MA. SEAS WILL BE
5-8 FEET ON ALL EXPOSED WATERS AND 1 TO 4 FEET ON THE REMAINING
WATERS.

WINDS ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS DIMINISH THIS EVENING WHILE WINDS
FARTHER OFFSHORE MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TO FALL BELOW 25
KNOTS. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS WE EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN AT THEIR
DAYTIME LEVELS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
DIMINISH AT THAT TIME. LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED TO ALL WATERS EXCEPT
NARRAGANSETT BAY...AND EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY FOR MOST WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT AS
WINDS BACK TO SW. APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL INCREASE SEAS
IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP
SEAS UP ABOVE SCA.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SCA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON WED ALLOWING FOR SEAS
AND WINDS TO RELAX.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-235-237-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN/GAF
NEAR TERM...GAF
SHORT TERM...WTB/GAF
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN/GAF
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN/GAF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 281806
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
206 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE BUT A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE LOW WILL CAUSE SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER
BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRES MAY APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK WITH MORE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
2 PM UPDATE...

FORECAST PRETTY MUCH STILL ON TRACK. HAVE RECEIVED A FEW 2-INCH
REPORTS BUT MAINLY FROM GRASSY SURFACES AND NOT PAVEMENT. BAND OF
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION STRETCHED ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
AS OF 2 PM BUT THERE WERE OTHER BANDS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGE
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW COVERING MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WE ARE
WATCHING AN INCREASING AREA OF SNOW COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW THIS AREA MOVING
EASTWARD INTO RI AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MA BETWEEN 3 PM
AND 6 PM. THEN...IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND MAINLY CONCENTRATED ALONG THE
SOUTH COASTS OF RI AND MA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL BELOW FREEZING TOWARD EVENING IN
SOUTHEAST MA AND RI...SO SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE SNOW STICKING TO
ROAD SURFACES.

OVERALL STORM TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE IN
SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.
OFFSHORE LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES WHILE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS MAINTAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR PCPN WHILE
COOLING NIGHTIME TEMPS WOULD FAVOR SNOW OR RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.
THE PIVOTING SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
ANY PCPN OVER OUR AREA DIMINISHING. BASED ON EXPECTED TEMPS AND
LIGHT PCPN THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT WE PROJECT STORM TOTAL OF 1-3
INCHES IN THE HILLS AND AROUND 1 INCH IN THE LOWER TERRAIN.

NORTH WINDS WILL PULL /YET AGAIN/ COLDER THAN NORMAL AIR ACROSS
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN IN THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S. CLOUDS MAY SLOW COOLING A LITTLE...SO WE FAVORED 15
TO 25 DEGREES.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA SURFACE AND ALOFT. THIS
SHOULD BRING SUNNY SKIES MOST AREAS. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING IN EASTERN MASS. TEMPS ALOFT SUGGEST HIGHS
IN THE 30S...BUT WARM ADVECTION LATE IN THE DAY MAY NUDGE VALUES
TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SOMETIME DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
NEXT WEEK. FIRST SYSTEM IS ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A WAVE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND FINALLY A SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY. OVERALL...A QUICK MOVING
RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY BEFORE NORTHWEST
FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
WITH IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

IT IS DIFFICULT TO ANY DETERMINISTIC MODEL OVER ANOTHER SINCE ALL
FALL WITHIN THE MULTI-CENTER ENSEMBLE SPREAD. NEVERTHELESS... THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH SOME...NOT ALL...FEATURES ACROSS
THE REGION THAN THE GFS AND HAS MORE SUPPORT FROM THE CMC/UKMET.
NOTHING SHOWS GOOD MULTI-DAY CONTINUITY AND THE TREND HAS BEEN BOTH
SLOWER AND QUICKER... DEPENDING ON THE SYSTEM OF INTEREST. THEREFOR
TRENDED TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

* SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH NW FLOW ALOFT
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM KEEPING MOST OF SUN PM DRY AND BRINGING PRECIP
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS
JUST NORTH OF SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT
THE ONSET LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT. EXPECT VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN ANY SNOW SHOWERS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND
GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE WIND...IT WILL
FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S.  CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS STILL MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
PRECIP TO BE CLOSER TO SNE WHILE THE GFS PUSHES EVEN FARTHER SOUTH
IMPACTING THE MID-ATLANTIC. OVERALL BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE PRECIP. MODELS ARE
SIMILAR ON THE TIMING BRINGING PRECIP IN OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING OUT
BY LATE WED MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA.

* WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL. BECAUSE OF THE MODEL
DISCREPANCIES HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...BUT BOTH
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE POINT TOWARDS WET WEATHER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LASTLY TEMPS MAY TURN MORE SPRING-LIKE BY
THURS/FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THIS AFTERNOON... MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS IN SNOW MOST AREAS
EXCEPT RAIN ON NANTUCKET...CHANGING TO SNOW LATE. LOCAL IFR CIGS
IN RI AND EASTERN MA.

TONIGHT... MIXED MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUE BEFORE MIDNIGHT
WITH AREAS OF SNOW IN THE EAST. TREND SHIFTS TO VFR AFTER MIDNIGHT
ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.

SUNDAY...VFR. IFR MAY LINGER NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS IN THE
MORNING BUT WITH THE TREND TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LINGERING MVFR ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. VFR
EVERYWHERE ELSE.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR
20-25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR
SOUTH OF PIKE IN QUICK MOVING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY.

NORTH WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE...FREQUENTLY
GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON MOST MA WATERS AND ON RI SOUND. GUSTS TO
30 KNOTS POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER WATERS EAST OF MA. SEAS WILL BE
5-8 FEET ON ALL EXPOSED WATERS AND 1 TO 4 FEET ON THE REMAINING
WATERS.

WINDS ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS DIMINISH THIS EVENING WHILE WINDS
FARTHER OFFSHORE MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TO FALL BELOW 25
KNOTS. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS WE EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN AT THEIR
DAYTIME LEVELS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
DIMINISH AT THAT TIME. LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED TO ALL WATERS EXCEPT
NARRAGANSETT BAY...AND EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY FOR MOST WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT AS
WINDS BACK TO SW. APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL INCREASE SEAS
IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP
SEAS UP ABOVE SCA.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SCA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON WED ALLOWING FOR SEAS
AND WINDS TO RELAX.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-235-237-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN/GAF
NEAR TERM...GAF
SHORT TERM...WTB/GAF
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN/GAF
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN/GAF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 281806
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
206 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE BUT A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE LOW WILL CAUSE SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER
BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRES MAY APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK WITH MORE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
2 PM UPDATE...

FORECAST PRETTY MUCH STILL ON TRACK. HAVE RECEIVED A FEW 2-INCH
REPORTS BUT MAINLY FROM GRASSY SURFACES AND NOT PAVEMENT. BAND OF
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION STRETCHED ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
AS OF 2 PM BUT THERE WERE OTHER BANDS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGE
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW COVERING MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WE ARE
WATCHING AN INCREASING AREA OF SNOW COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW THIS AREA MOVING
EASTWARD INTO RI AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MA BETWEEN 3 PM
AND 6 PM. THEN...IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO BECOME MORE
SCATTERED INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND MAINLY CONCENTRATED ALONG THE
SOUTH COASTS OF RI AND MA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL BELOW FREEZING TOWARD EVENING IN
SOUTHEAST MA AND RI...SO SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE SNOW STICKING TO
ROAD SURFACES.

OVERALL STORM TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE IN
SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.
OFFSHORE LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES WHILE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS MAINTAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR PCPN WHILE
COOLING NIGHTIME TEMPS WOULD FAVOR SNOW OR RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.
THE PIVOTING SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
ANY PCPN OVER OUR AREA DIMINISHING. BASED ON EXPECTED TEMPS AND
LIGHT PCPN THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT WE PROJECT STORM TOTAL OF 1-3
INCHES IN THE HILLS AND AROUND 1 INCH IN THE LOWER TERRAIN.

NORTH WINDS WILL PULL /YET AGAIN/ COLDER THAN NORMAL AIR ACROSS
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN IN THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S. CLOUDS MAY SLOW COOLING A LITTLE...SO WE FAVORED 15
TO 25 DEGREES.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA SURFACE AND ALOFT. THIS
SHOULD BRING SUNNY SKIES MOST AREAS. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING IN EASTERN MASS. TEMPS ALOFT SUGGEST HIGHS
IN THE 30S...BUT WARM ADVECTION LATE IN THE DAY MAY NUDGE VALUES
TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SOMETIME DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
NEXT WEEK. FIRST SYSTEM IS ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A WAVE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND FINALLY A SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY. OVERALL...A QUICK MOVING
RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY BEFORE NORTHWEST
FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
WITH IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

IT IS DIFFICULT TO ANY DETERMINISTIC MODEL OVER ANOTHER SINCE ALL
FALL WITHIN THE MULTI-CENTER ENSEMBLE SPREAD. NEVERTHELESS... THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH SOME...NOT ALL...FEATURES ACROSS
THE REGION THAN THE GFS AND HAS MORE SUPPORT FROM THE CMC/UKMET.
NOTHING SHOWS GOOD MULTI-DAY CONTINUITY AND THE TREND HAS BEEN BOTH
SLOWER AND QUICKER... DEPENDING ON THE SYSTEM OF INTEREST. THEREFOR
TRENDED TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

* SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH NW FLOW ALOFT
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM KEEPING MOST OF SUN PM DRY AND BRINGING PRECIP
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS
JUST NORTH OF SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT
THE ONSET LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT. EXPECT VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN ANY SNOW SHOWERS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND
GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE WIND...IT WILL
FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S.  CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS STILL MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
PRECIP TO BE CLOSER TO SNE WHILE THE GFS PUSHES EVEN FARTHER SOUTH
IMPACTING THE MID-ATLANTIC. OVERALL BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE PRECIP. MODELS ARE
SIMILAR ON THE TIMING BRINGING PRECIP IN OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING OUT
BY LATE WED MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA.

* WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL. BECAUSE OF THE MODEL
DISCREPANCIES HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...BUT BOTH
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE POINT TOWARDS WET WEATHER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LASTLY TEMPS MAY TURN MORE SPRING-LIKE BY
THURS/FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THIS AFTERNOON... MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS IN SNOW MOST AREAS
EXCEPT RAIN ON NANTUCKET...CHANGING TO SNOW LATE. LOCAL IFR CIGS
IN RI AND EASTERN MA.

TONIGHT... MIXED MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUE BEFORE MIDNIGHT
WITH AREAS OF SNOW IN THE EAST. TREND SHIFTS TO VFR AFTER MIDNIGHT
ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.

SUNDAY...VFR. IFR MAY LINGER NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS IN THE
MORNING BUT WITH THE TREND TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LINGERING MVFR ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. VFR
EVERYWHERE ELSE.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR
20-25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR
SOUTH OF PIKE IN QUICK MOVING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY.

NORTH WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE...FREQUENTLY
GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON MOST MA WATERS AND ON RI SOUND. GUSTS TO
30 KNOTS POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER WATERS EAST OF MA. SEAS WILL BE
5-8 FEET ON ALL EXPOSED WATERS AND 1 TO 4 FEET ON THE REMAINING
WATERS.

WINDS ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS DIMINISH THIS EVENING WHILE WINDS
FARTHER OFFSHORE MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TO FALL BELOW 25
KNOTS. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS WE EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN AT THEIR
DAYTIME LEVELS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
DIMINISH AT THAT TIME. LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED TO ALL WATERS EXCEPT
NARRAGANSETT BAY...AND EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY FOR MOST WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT AS
WINDS BACK TO SW. APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL INCREASE SEAS
IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP
SEAS UP ABOVE SCA.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SCA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON WED ALLOWING FOR SEAS
AND WINDS TO RELAX.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-235-237-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN/GAF
NEAR TERM...GAF
SHORT TERM...WTB/GAF
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN/GAF
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN/GAF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 281448
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1048 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE BUT A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE LOW WILL CAUSE SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER
BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRES MAY APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK WITH MORE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1040 AM UPDATE...

VERY TRICKY FORECAST CONTINUES. DESPITE MANY THOUGHT PROCESSES
THIS MORNING...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS BUT NOT
QUITE ENOUGH FOR ADVISORIES IN NORTHERN RI AND EASTERN MA.

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. IN ADDITION...WE HAVE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A COMMA HEAD WHICH HAS LED TO PERIODS OF MODERATE
SNOW ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND NY AND VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED
TO BELOW 1 MILE AT TIMES IN PARTS OF MA AND CT. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...WHICH IS A WESTWARD EXTENSION
FROM DEEPER OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES HAVE
DROPPED INTO THE LOWER AND MID 20S ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND WILL BE SPREADING EAST...WHICH WOULD MEAN A
BETTER CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN TO THEIR WET-BULB
LEVELS...A LITTLE LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST N AND W OF THE
I-95 CORRIDOR. EARLIER MESOSCALE MODELS WERE SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION RATES BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z IN EASTERN MA.
ALL OF THESE FACTORS WERE LEADING US TO BELIEVE THAT THERE COULD
BE ADVISORY...3 TO PERHAPS EVEN 5 INCHES OF SNOW IN PARTS OF THE
REGION BY THIS EVENING.

HOWEVER...THE 12Z NAM SHOWS LESS PRECIPITATION IN THE 18Z TO 00Z
TIME FRAME THAN IN THE 12Z TO 18Z TIME FRAME. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
THE BEST PRECIPITATION SLIDING EASTWARD ALREADY. A COOPERATIVE
WEATHER OBSERVER IN NORTH FOSTER RI REPORTED 1.4 INCHES OF
SNOW...BUT ONLY ON GRASSY AREAS AND NOT ON THE PAVEMENT. GIVEN
THAT THE SNOWFALL IS NOT HAVING A BIG IMPACT BECAUSE OF MELTING ON
PAVEMENTS...WE HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY ADVISORIES FOR
NORTHERN RI/NORTHEAST CT/EASTERN MA AT THIS TIME. HAVE UPPED THE
SNOWFALL TOTALS SLIGHTLY HOWEVER...TO 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM IS BULLISH ON
SOUTHEAST MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS GETTING
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND GREATER THAN 0.25" QPF FROM
00Z TO 06Z SO WILL BE WATCHING THAT AREA CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE
UPGRADES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

FARTHER TO THE WEST...ARE STILL GETTING SOME SNOW BANDS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND A SPOTTER REPORTED 1.5 INCHES IN HUBBARDSTON
MA. WE ARE THINKING THAT THE AXIS WILL SHIFT FARTHER TO THE EAST
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...THUS LIMITING AMOUNTS IN WESTERN
PORTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.
OFFSHORE LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES WHILE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS MAINTAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR PCPN WHILE
COOLING NIGHTIME TEMPS WOULD FAVOR SNOW OR RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.
THE PIVOTING SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
ANY PCPN OVER OUR AREA DIMINISHING. BASED ON EXPECTED TEMPS AND
LIGHT PCPN THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT WE PROJECT STORM TOTAL OF 1-3
INCHES IN THE HILLS AND AROUND 1 INCH IN THE LOWER TERRAIN.

NORTH WINDS WILL PULL /YET AGAIN/ COLDER THAN NORMAL AIR ACROSS
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN IN THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S. CLOUDS MAY SLOW COOLING A LITTLE...SO WE FAVORED 15
TO 25 DEGREES.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA SURFACE AND ALOFT. THIS
SHOULD BRING SUNNY SKIES MOST AREAS. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING IN EASTERN MASS. TEMPS ALOFT SUGGEST HIGHS
IN THE 30S...BUT WARM ADVECTION LATE IN THE DAY MAY NUDGE VALUES
TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SOMETIME DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
NEXT WEEK. FIRST SYSTEM IS ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A WAVE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND FINALLY A SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY. OVERALL...A QUICK MOVING
RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY BEFORE NORTHWEST
FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
WITH IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

IT IS DIFFICULT TO ANY DETERMINISTIC MODEL OVER ANOTHER SINCE ALL
FALL WITHIN THE MULTI-CENTER ENSEMBLE SPREAD. NEVERTHELESS... THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH SOME...NOT ALL...FEATURES ACROSS
THE REGION THAN THE GFS AND HAS MORE SUPPORT FROM THE CMC/UKMET.
NOTHING SHOWS GOOD MULTI-DAY CONTINUITY AND THE TREND HAS BEEN BOTH
SLOWER AND QUICKER... DEPENDING ON THE SYSTEM OF INTEREST. THEREFOR
TRENDED TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

* SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH NW FLOW ALOFT
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM KEEPING MOST OF SUN PM DRY AND BRINGING PRECIP
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS
JUST NORTH OF SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT
THE ONSET LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT. EXPECT VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN ANY SNOW SHOWERS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND
GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE WIND...IT WILL
FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S.  CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS STILL MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
PRECIP TO BE CLOSER TO SNE WHILE THE GFS PUSHES EVEN FARTHER SOUTH
IMPACTING THE MID-ATLANTIC. OVERALL BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE PRECIP. MODELS ARE
SIMILAR ON THE TIMING BRINGING PRECIP IN OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING OUT
BY LATE WED MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA.

* WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL. BECAUSE OF THE MODEL
DISCREPANCIES HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...BUT BOTH
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE POINT TOWARDS WET WEATHER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LASTLY TEMPS MAY TURN MORE SPRING-LIKE BY
THURS/FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THIS AFTERNOON... MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS IN SNOW MOST AREAS
EXCEPT RAIN AND SNOW CAPE COD AND ISLAND. LOCAL IFR CIGS.

TONIGHT... MIXED MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUE BEFORE MIDNIGHT
WITH AREAS OF SNOW IN THE EAST. TREND SHIFTS TO VFR AFTER
MIDNIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.

SUNDAY...VFR. IFR MAY LINGER NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS IN THE
MORNING BUT WITH THE TREND TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LINGERING MVFR ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. VFR
EVERYWHERE ELSE.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR
20-25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR
SOUTH OF PIKE IN QUICK MOVING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY.

NORTH WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE...FREQUENTLY
GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON MOST MA WATERS AND ON RI SOUND. GUSTS TO
30 KNOTS POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER WATERS EAST OF MA. SEAS WILL BE
5-8 FEET ON ALL EXPOSED WATERS AND 1 TO 4 FEET ON THE REMAINING
WATERS.

WINDS ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS DIMINISH THIS EVENING WHILE WINDS
FARTHER OFFSHORE MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TO FALL BELOW 25
KNOTS. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS WE EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN AT THEIR
DAYTIME LEVELS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
DIMINISH AT THAT TIME. LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED TO ALL WATERS EXCEPT
NARRAGANSETT BAY...AND EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY FOR MOST WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT AS
WINDS BACK TO SW. APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL INCREASE SEAS
IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP
SEAS UP ABOVE SCA.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SCA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON WED ALLOWING FOR SEAS
AND WINDS TO RELAX.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-235-237-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN/GAF
NEAR TERM...GAF
SHORT TERM...WTB/GAF
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN/GAF
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN/GAF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 281445
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1045 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE BUT A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE LOW WILL CAUSE SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER
BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRES MAY APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK WITH MORE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1040 AM UPDATE...

VERY TRICKY FORECAST CONTINUES. DESPITE MANY THOUGHT MACHINATIONS
THIS MORNING...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS BUT NOT
QUITE ENOUGH FOR ADVISORIES IN NORTHERN RI AND EASTERN MA.

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. IN ADDITION...WE HAVE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A COMMA HEAD WHICH HAS LED TO PERIODS OF MODERATE
SNOW ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND NY AND VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED
TO BELOW 1 MILE AT TIMES IN PARTS OF MA AND CT. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...WHICH IS A WESTWARD EXTENSION
FROM DEEPER OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES HAVE
DROPPED INTO THE LOWER AND MID 20S ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND WILL BE SPREADING EAST...WHICH WOULD MEAN A
BETTER CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN TO THEIR WET-BULB
LEVELS...A LITTLE LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST N AND W OF THE
I-95 CORRIDOR. EARLIER MESOSCALE MODELS WERE SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION RATES BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z IN EASTERN MA.
ALL OF THESE FACTORS WERE LEADING US TO BELIEVE THAT THERE COULD
BE ADVISORY...3 TO PERHAPS EVEN 5 INCHES OF SNOW IN PARTS OF THE
REGION BY THIS EVENING.

HOWEVER...THE 12Z NAM SHOWS LESS PRECIPITATION IN THE 18Z TO 00Z
TIME FRAME THAN IN THE 12Z TO 18Z TIME FRAME. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
THE BEST PRECIPITATION SLIDING EASTWARD ALREADY. A COOPERATIVE
WEATHER OBSERVER IN NORTH FOSTER RI REPORTED 1.4 INCHES OF
SNOW...BUT ONLY ON GRASSY AREAS AND NOT ON THE PAVEMENT. GIVEN
THAT THE SNOWFALL IS NOT HAVING A BIG IMPACT BECAUSE OF MELTING ON
PAVEMENTS...WE HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY ADVISORIES FOR
NORTHERN RI/NORTHEAST CT/EASTERN MA AT THIS TIME. HAVE UPPED THE
SNOWFALL TOTALS SLIGHTLY HOWEVER...TO 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM IS BULLISH ON
SOUTHEAST MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS GETTING
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND GREATER THAN 0.25" QPF FROM
00Z TO 06Z SO WILL BE WATCHING THAT AREA CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE
UPGRADES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

FARTHER TO THE WEST...ARE STILL GETTING SOME SNOW BANDS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND A SPOTTER REPORTED 1.5 INCHES IN HUBBARDSTON
MA. WE ARE THINKING THAT THE AXIS WILL SHIFT FARTHER TO THE EAST
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...THUS LIMITING AMOUNTS IN WESTERN
PORTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.
OFFSHORE LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES WHILE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS MAINTAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR PCPN WHILE
COOLING NIGHTIME TEMPS WOULD FAVOR SNOW OR RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.
THE PIVOTING SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
ANY PCPN OVER OUR AREA DIMINISHING. BASED ON EXPECTED TEMPS AND
LIGHT PCPN THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT WE PROJECT STORM TOTAL OF 1-3
INCHES IN THE HILLS AND AROUND 1 INCH IN THE LOWER TERRAIN.

NORTH WINDS WILL PULL /YET AGAIN/ COLDER THAN NORMAL AIR ACROSS
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN IN THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S. CLOUDS MAY SLOW COOLING A LITTLE...SO WE FAVORED 15
TO 25 DEGREES.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA SURFACE AND ALOFT. THIS
SHOULD BRING SUNNY SKIES MOST AREAS. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING IN EASTERN MASS. TEMPS ALOFT SUGGEST HIGHS
IN THE 30S...BUT WARM ADVECTION LATE IN THE DAY MAY NUDGE VALUES
TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SOMETIME DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
NEXT WEEK. FIRST SYSTEM IS ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A WAVE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND FINALLY A SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY. OVERALL...A QUICK MOVING
RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY BEFORE NORTHWEST
FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
WITH IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

IT IS DIFFICULT TO ANY DETERMINISTIC MODEL OVER ANOTHER SINCE ALL
FALL WITHIN THE MULTI-CENTER ENSEMBLE SPREAD. NEVERTHELESS... THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH SOME...NOT ALL...FEATURES ACROSS
THE REGION THAN THE GFS AND HAS MORE SUPPORT FROM THE CMC/UKMET.
NOTHING SHOWS GOOD MULTI-DAY CONTINUITY AND THE TREND HAS BEEN BOTH
SLOWER AND QUICKER... DEPENDING ON THE SYSTEM OF INTEREST. THEREFOR
TRENDED TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

* SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH NW FLOW ALOFT
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM KEEPING MOST OF SUN PM DRY AND BRINGING PRECIP
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS
JUST NORTH OF SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT
THE ONSET LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT. EXPECT VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN ANY SNOW SHOWERS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND
GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE WIND...IT WILL
FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S.  CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS STILL MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
PRECIP TO BE CLOSER TO SNE WHILE THE GFS PUSHES EVEN FARTHER SOUTH
IMPACTING THE MID-ATLANTIC. OVERALL BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE PRECIP. MODELS ARE
SIMILAR ON THE TIMING BRINGING PRECIP IN OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING OUT
BY LATE WED MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA.

* WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL. BECAUSE OF THE MODEL
DISCREPANCIES HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...BUT BOTH
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE POINT TOWARDS WET WEATHER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LASTLY TEMPS MAY TURN MORE SPRING-LIKE BY
THURS/FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THIS AFTERNOON... MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS IN SNOW MOST AREAS
EXCEPT RAIN AND SNOW CAPE COD AND ISLAND. LOCAL IFR CIGS.

TONIGHT... MIXED MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUE BEFORE MIDNIGHT
WITH AREAS OF SNOW IN THE EAST. TREND SHIFTS TO VFR AFTER
MIDNIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.

SUNDAY...VFR. IFR MAY LINGER NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS IN THE
MORNING BUT WITH THE TREND TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LINGERING MVFR ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. VFR
EVERYWHERE ELSE.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR
20-25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR
SOUTH OF PIKE IN QUICK MOVING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY.

NORTH WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE...FREQUENTLY
GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON MOST MA WATERS AND ON RI SOUND. GUSTS TO
30 KNOTS POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER WATERS EAST OF MA. SEAS WILL BE
5-8 FEET ON ALL EXPOSED WATERS AND 1 TO 4 FEET ON THE REMAINING
WATERS.

WINDS ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS DIMINISH THIS EVENING WHILE WINDS
FARTHER OFFSHORE MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TO FALL BELOW 25
KNOTS. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS WE EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN AT THEIR
DAYTIME LEVELS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
DIMINISH AT THAT TIME. LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED TO ALL WATERS EXCEPT
NARRAGANSETT BAY...AND EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY FOR MOST WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT AS
WINDS BACK TO SW. APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL INCREASE SEAS
IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP
SEAS UP ABOVE SCA.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SCA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON WED ALLOWING FOR SEAS
AND WINDS TO RELAX.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-235-237-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN/GAF
NEAR TERM...GAF
SHORT TERM...WTB/GAF
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN/GAF
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN/GAF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 281445
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1045 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE BUT A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE LOW WILL CAUSE SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER
BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRES MAY APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK WITH MORE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1040 AM UPDATE...

VERY TRICKY FORECAST CONTINUES. DESPITE MANY THOUGHT MACHINATIONS
THIS MORNING...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS BUT NOT
QUITE ENOUGH FOR ADVISORIES IN NORTHERN RI AND EASTERN MA.

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. IN ADDITION...WE HAVE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A COMMA HEAD WHICH HAS LED TO PERIODS OF MODERATE
SNOW ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND NY AND VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED
TO BELOW 1 MILE AT TIMES IN PARTS OF MA AND CT. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...WHICH IS A WESTWARD EXTENSION
FROM DEEPER OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES HAVE
DROPPED INTO THE LOWER AND MID 20S ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND WILL BE SPREADING EAST...WHICH WOULD MEAN A
BETTER CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN TO THEIR WET-BULB
LEVELS...A LITTLE LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST N AND W OF THE
I-95 CORRIDOR. EARLIER MESOSCALE MODELS WERE SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION RATES BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z IN EASTERN MA.
ALL OF THESE FACTORS WERE LEADING US TO BELIEVE THAT THERE COULD
BE ADVISORY...3 TO PERHAPS EVEN 5 INCHES OF SNOW IN PARTS OF THE
REGION BY THIS EVENING.

HOWEVER...THE 12Z NAM SHOWS LESS PRECIPITATION IN THE 18Z TO 00Z
TIME FRAME THAN IN THE 12Z TO 18Z TIME FRAME. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
THE BEST PRECIPITATION SLIDING EASTWARD ALREADY. A COOPERATIVE
WEATHER OBSERVER IN NORTH FOSTER RI REPORTED 1.4 INCHES OF
SNOW...BUT ONLY ON GRASSY AREAS AND NOT ON THE PAVEMENT. GIVEN
THAT THE SNOWFALL IS NOT HAVING A BIG IMPACT BECAUSE OF MELTING ON
PAVEMENTS...WE HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY ADVISORIES FOR
NORTHERN RI/NORTHEAST CT/EASTERN MA AT THIS TIME. HAVE UPPED THE
SNOWFALL TOTALS SLIGHTLY HOWEVER...TO 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM IS BULLISH ON
SOUTHEAST MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS GETTING
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND GREATER THAN 0.25" QPF FROM
00Z TO 06Z SO WILL BE WATCHING THAT AREA CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE
UPGRADES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

FARTHER TO THE WEST...ARE STILL GETTING SOME SNOW BANDS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND A SPOTTER REPORTED 1.5 INCHES IN HUBBARDSTON
MA. WE ARE THINKING THAT THE AXIS WILL SHIFT FARTHER TO THE EAST
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...THUS LIMITING AMOUNTS IN WESTERN
PORTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.
OFFSHORE LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES WHILE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS MAINTAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR PCPN WHILE
COOLING NIGHTIME TEMPS WOULD FAVOR SNOW OR RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.
THE PIVOTING SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
ANY PCPN OVER OUR AREA DIMINISHING. BASED ON EXPECTED TEMPS AND
LIGHT PCPN THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT WE PROJECT STORM TOTAL OF 1-3
INCHES IN THE HILLS AND AROUND 1 INCH IN THE LOWER TERRAIN.

NORTH WINDS WILL PULL /YET AGAIN/ COLDER THAN NORMAL AIR ACROSS
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN IN THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S. CLOUDS MAY SLOW COOLING A LITTLE...SO WE FAVORED 15
TO 25 DEGREES.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA SURFACE AND ALOFT. THIS
SHOULD BRING SUNNY SKIES MOST AREAS. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING IN EASTERN MASS. TEMPS ALOFT SUGGEST HIGHS
IN THE 30S...BUT WARM ADVECTION LATE IN THE DAY MAY NUDGE VALUES
TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SOMETIME DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
NEXT WEEK. FIRST SYSTEM IS ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A WAVE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND FINALLY A SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY. OVERALL...A QUICK MOVING
RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY BEFORE NORTHWEST
FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
WITH IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

IT IS DIFFICULT TO ANY DETERMINISTIC MODEL OVER ANOTHER SINCE ALL
FALL WITHIN THE MULTI-CENTER ENSEMBLE SPREAD. NEVERTHELESS... THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH SOME...NOT ALL...FEATURES ACROSS
THE REGION THAN THE GFS AND HAS MORE SUPPORT FROM THE CMC/UKMET.
NOTHING SHOWS GOOD MULTI-DAY CONTINUITY AND THE TREND HAS BEEN BOTH
SLOWER AND QUICKER... DEPENDING ON THE SYSTEM OF INTEREST. THEREFOR
TRENDED TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

* SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH NW FLOW ALOFT
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM KEEPING MOST OF SUN PM DRY AND BRINGING PRECIP
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS
JUST NORTH OF SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT
THE ONSET LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT. EXPECT VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN ANY SNOW SHOWERS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND
GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE WIND...IT WILL
FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S.  CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS STILL MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
PRECIP TO BE CLOSER TO SNE WHILE THE GFS PUSHES EVEN FARTHER SOUTH
IMPACTING THE MID-ATLANTIC. OVERALL BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE PRECIP. MODELS ARE
SIMILAR ON THE TIMING BRINGING PRECIP IN OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING OUT
BY LATE WED MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA.

* WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL. BECAUSE OF THE MODEL
DISCREPANCIES HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...BUT BOTH
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE POINT TOWARDS WET WEATHER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LASTLY TEMPS MAY TURN MORE SPRING-LIKE BY
THURS/FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THIS AFTERNOON... MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS IN SNOW MOST AREAS
EXCEPT RAIN AND SNOW CAPE COD AND ISLAND. LOCAL IFR CIGS.

TONIGHT... MIXED MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUE BEFORE MIDNIGHT
WITH AREAS OF SNOW IN THE EAST. TREND SHIFTS TO VFR AFTER
MIDNIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.

SUNDAY...VFR. IFR MAY LINGER NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS IN THE
MORNING BUT WITH THE TREND TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LINGERING MVFR ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. VFR
EVERYWHERE ELSE.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR
20-25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR
SOUTH OF PIKE IN QUICK MOVING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY.

NORTH WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE...FREQUENTLY
GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON MOST MA WATERS AND ON RI SOUND. GUSTS TO
30 KNOTS POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER WATERS EAST OF MA. SEAS WILL BE
5-8 FEET ON ALL EXPOSED WATERS AND 1 TO 4 FEET ON THE REMAINING
WATERS.

WINDS ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS DIMINISH THIS EVENING WHILE WINDS
FARTHER OFFSHORE MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TO FALL BELOW 25
KNOTS. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS WE EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN AT THEIR
DAYTIME LEVELS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
DIMINISH AT THAT TIME. LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED TO ALL WATERS EXCEPT
NARRAGANSETT BAY...AND EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY FOR MOST WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT AS
WINDS BACK TO SW. APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL INCREASE SEAS
IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP
SEAS UP ABOVE SCA.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SCA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON WED ALLOWING FOR SEAS
AND WINDS TO RELAX.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-235-237-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN/GAF
NEAR TERM...GAF
SHORT TERM...WTB/GAF
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN/GAF
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN/GAF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 281445
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1045 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE BUT A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE LOW WILL CAUSE SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER
BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRES MAY APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK WITH MORE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1040 AM UPDATE...

VERY TRICKY FORECAST CONTINUES. DESPITE MANY THOUGHT MACHINATIONS
THIS MORNING...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS BUT NOT
QUITE ENOUGH FOR ADVISORIES IN NORTHERN RI AND EASTERN MA.

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. IN ADDITION...WE HAVE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A COMMA HEAD WHICH HAS LED TO PERIODS OF MODERATE
SNOW ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND NY AND VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED
TO BELOW 1 MILE AT TIMES IN PARTS OF MA AND CT. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...WHICH IS A WESTWARD EXTENSION
FROM DEEPER OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES HAVE
DROPPED INTO THE LOWER AND MID 20S ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND WILL BE SPREADING EAST...WHICH WOULD MEAN A
BETTER CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN TO THEIR WET-BULB
LEVELS...A LITTLE LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST N AND W OF THE
I-95 CORRIDOR. EARLIER MESOSCALE MODELS WERE SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION RATES BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z IN EASTERN MA.
ALL OF THESE FACTORS WERE LEADING US TO BELIEVE THAT THERE COULD
BE ADVISORY...3 TO PERHAPS EVEN 5 INCHES OF SNOW IN PARTS OF THE
REGION BY THIS EVENING.

HOWEVER...THE 12Z NAM SHOWS LESS PRECIPITATION IN THE 18Z TO 00Z
TIME FRAME THAN IN THE 12Z TO 18Z TIME FRAME. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
THE BEST PRECIPITATION SLIDING EASTWARD ALREADY. A COOPERATIVE
WEATHER OBSERVER IN NORTH FOSTER RI REPORTED 1.4 INCHES OF
SNOW...BUT ONLY ON GRASSY AREAS AND NOT ON THE PAVEMENT. GIVEN
THAT THE SNOWFALL IS NOT HAVING A BIG IMPACT BECAUSE OF MELTING ON
PAVEMENTS...WE HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY ADVISORIES FOR
NORTHERN RI/NORTHEAST CT/EASTERN MA AT THIS TIME. HAVE UPPED THE
SNOWFALL TOTALS SLIGHTLY HOWEVER...TO 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM IS BULLISH ON
SOUTHEAST MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS GETTING
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND GREATER THAN 0.25" QPF FROM
00Z TO 06Z SO WILL BE WATCHING THAT AREA CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE
UPGRADES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

FARTHER TO THE WEST...ARE STILL GETTING SOME SNOW BANDS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND A SPOTTER REPORTED 1.5 INCHES IN HUBBARDSTON
MA. WE ARE THINKING THAT THE AXIS WILL SHIFT FARTHER TO THE EAST
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...THUS LIMITING AMOUNTS IN WESTERN
PORTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.
OFFSHORE LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES WHILE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS MAINTAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR PCPN WHILE
COOLING NIGHTIME TEMPS WOULD FAVOR SNOW OR RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.
THE PIVOTING SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
ANY PCPN OVER OUR AREA DIMINISHING. BASED ON EXPECTED TEMPS AND
LIGHT PCPN THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT WE PROJECT STORM TOTAL OF 1-3
INCHES IN THE HILLS AND AROUND 1 INCH IN THE LOWER TERRAIN.

NORTH WINDS WILL PULL /YET AGAIN/ COLDER THAN NORMAL AIR ACROSS
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN IN THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S. CLOUDS MAY SLOW COOLING A LITTLE...SO WE FAVORED 15
TO 25 DEGREES.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA SURFACE AND ALOFT. THIS
SHOULD BRING SUNNY SKIES MOST AREAS. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING IN EASTERN MASS. TEMPS ALOFT SUGGEST HIGHS
IN THE 30S...BUT WARM ADVECTION LATE IN THE DAY MAY NUDGE VALUES
TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SOMETIME DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
NEXT WEEK. FIRST SYSTEM IS ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A WAVE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND FINALLY A SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY. OVERALL...A QUICK MOVING
RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY BEFORE NORTHWEST
FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
WITH IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

IT IS DIFFICULT TO ANY DETERMINISTIC MODEL OVER ANOTHER SINCE ALL
FALL WITHIN THE MULTI-CENTER ENSEMBLE SPREAD. NEVERTHELESS... THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH SOME...NOT ALL...FEATURES ACROSS
THE REGION THAN THE GFS AND HAS MORE SUPPORT FROM THE CMC/UKMET.
NOTHING SHOWS GOOD MULTI-DAY CONTINUITY AND THE TREND HAS BEEN BOTH
SLOWER AND QUICKER... DEPENDING ON THE SYSTEM OF INTEREST. THEREFOR
TRENDED TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

* SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH NW FLOW ALOFT
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM KEEPING MOST OF SUN PM DRY AND BRINGING PRECIP
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS
JUST NORTH OF SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT
THE ONSET LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT. EXPECT VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN ANY SNOW SHOWERS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND
GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE WIND...IT WILL
FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S.  CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS STILL MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
PRECIP TO BE CLOSER TO SNE WHILE THE GFS PUSHES EVEN FARTHER SOUTH
IMPACTING THE MID-ATLANTIC. OVERALL BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE PRECIP. MODELS ARE
SIMILAR ON THE TIMING BRINGING PRECIP IN OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING OUT
BY LATE WED MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA.

* WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL. BECAUSE OF THE MODEL
DISCREPANCIES HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...BUT BOTH
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE POINT TOWARDS WET WEATHER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LASTLY TEMPS MAY TURN MORE SPRING-LIKE BY
THURS/FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THIS AFTERNOON... MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS IN SNOW MOST AREAS
EXCEPT RAIN AND SNOW CAPE COD AND ISLAND. LOCAL IFR CIGS.

TONIGHT... MIXED MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUE BEFORE MIDNIGHT
WITH AREAS OF SNOW IN THE EAST. TREND SHIFTS TO VFR AFTER
MIDNIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.

SUNDAY...VFR. IFR MAY LINGER NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS IN THE
MORNING BUT WITH THE TREND TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LINGERING MVFR ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. VFR
EVERYWHERE ELSE.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR
20-25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR
SOUTH OF PIKE IN QUICK MOVING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY.

NORTH WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE...FREQUENTLY
GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON MOST MA WATERS AND ON RI SOUND. GUSTS TO
30 KNOTS POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER WATERS EAST OF MA. SEAS WILL BE
5-8 FEET ON ALL EXPOSED WATERS AND 1 TO 4 FEET ON THE REMAINING
WATERS.

WINDS ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS DIMINISH THIS EVENING WHILE WINDS
FARTHER OFFSHORE MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TO FALL BELOW 25
KNOTS. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS WE EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN AT THEIR
DAYTIME LEVELS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
DIMINISH AT THAT TIME. LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED TO ALL WATERS EXCEPT
NARRAGANSETT BAY...AND EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY FOR MOST WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT AS
WINDS BACK TO SW. APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL INCREASE SEAS
IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP
SEAS UP ABOVE SCA.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SCA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON WED ALLOWING FOR SEAS
AND WINDS TO RELAX.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-235-237-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN/GAF
NEAR TERM...GAF
SHORT TERM...WTB/GAF
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN/GAF
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN/GAF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 281445
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1045 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE BUT A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE LOW WILL CAUSE SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER
BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRES MAY APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK WITH MORE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1040 AM UPDATE...

VERY TRICKY FORECAST CONTINUES. DESPITE MANY THOUGHT MACHINATIONS
THIS MORNING...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS BUT NOT
QUITE ENOUGH FOR ADVISORIES IN NORTHERN RI AND EASTERN MA.

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. IN ADDITION...WE HAVE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A COMMA HEAD WHICH HAS LED TO PERIODS OF MODERATE
SNOW ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND NY AND VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED
TO BELOW 1 MILE AT TIMES IN PARTS OF MA AND CT. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...WHICH IS A WESTWARD EXTENSION
FROM DEEPER OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES HAVE
DROPPED INTO THE LOWER AND MID 20S ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND WILL BE SPREADING EAST...WHICH WOULD MEAN A
BETTER CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN TO THEIR WET-BULB
LEVELS...A LITTLE LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST N AND W OF THE
I-95 CORRIDOR. EARLIER MESOSCALE MODELS WERE SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION RATES BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z IN EASTERN MA.
ALL OF THESE FACTORS WERE LEADING US TO BELIEVE THAT THERE COULD
BE ADVISORY...3 TO PERHAPS EVEN 5 INCHES OF SNOW IN PARTS OF THE
REGION BY THIS EVENING.

HOWEVER...THE 12Z NAM SHOWS LESS PRECIPITATION IN THE 18Z TO 00Z
TIME FRAME THAN IN THE 12Z TO 18Z TIME FRAME. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
THE BEST PRECIPITATION SLIDING EASTWARD ALREADY. A COOPERATIVE
WEATHER OBSERVER IN NORTH FOSTER RI REPORTED 1.4 INCHES OF
SNOW...BUT ONLY ON GRASSY AREAS AND NOT ON THE PAVEMENT. GIVEN
THAT THE SNOWFALL IS NOT HAVING A BIG IMPACT BECAUSE OF MELTING ON
PAVEMENTS...WE HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY ADVISORIES FOR
NORTHERN RI/NORTHEAST CT/EASTERN MA AT THIS TIME. HAVE UPPED THE
SNOWFALL TOTALS SLIGHTLY HOWEVER...TO 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM IS BULLISH ON
SOUTHEAST MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS GETTING
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND GREATER THAN 0.25" QPF FROM
00Z TO 06Z SO WILL BE WATCHING THAT AREA CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE
UPGRADES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

FARTHER TO THE WEST...ARE STILL GETTING SOME SNOW BANDS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND A SPOTTER REPORTED 1.5 INCHES IN HUBBARDSTON
MA. WE ARE THINKING THAT THE AXIS WILL SHIFT FARTHER TO THE EAST
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...THUS LIMITING AMOUNTS IN WESTERN
PORTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.
OFFSHORE LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES WHILE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS MAINTAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR PCPN WHILE
COOLING NIGHTIME TEMPS WOULD FAVOR SNOW OR RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.
THE PIVOTING SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
ANY PCPN OVER OUR AREA DIMINISHING. BASED ON EXPECTED TEMPS AND
LIGHT PCPN THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT WE PROJECT STORM TOTAL OF 1-3
INCHES IN THE HILLS AND AROUND 1 INCH IN THE LOWER TERRAIN.

NORTH WINDS WILL PULL /YET AGAIN/ COLDER THAN NORMAL AIR ACROSS
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN IN THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S. CLOUDS MAY SLOW COOLING A LITTLE...SO WE FAVORED 15
TO 25 DEGREES.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA SURFACE AND ALOFT. THIS
SHOULD BRING SUNNY SKIES MOST AREAS. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING IN EASTERN MASS. TEMPS ALOFT SUGGEST HIGHS
IN THE 30S...BUT WARM ADVECTION LATE IN THE DAY MAY NUDGE VALUES
TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SOMETIME DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
NEXT WEEK. FIRST SYSTEM IS ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A WAVE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND FINALLY A SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY. OVERALL...A QUICK MOVING
RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY BEFORE NORTHWEST
FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
WITH IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

IT IS DIFFICULT TO ANY DETERMINISTIC MODEL OVER ANOTHER SINCE ALL
FALL WITHIN THE MULTI-CENTER ENSEMBLE SPREAD. NEVERTHELESS... THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH SOME...NOT ALL...FEATURES ACROSS
THE REGION THAN THE GFS AND HAS MORE SUPPORT FROM THE CMC/UKMET.
NOTHING SHOWS GOOD MULTI-DAY CONTINUITY AND THE TREND HAS BEEN BOTH
SLOWER AND QUICKER... DEPENDING ON THE SYSTEM OF INTEREST. THEREFOR
TRENDED TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

* SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH NW FLOW ALOFT
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM KEEPING MOST OF SUN PM DRY AND BRINGING PRECIP
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS
JUST NORTH OF SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT
THE ONSET LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT. EXPECT VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN ANY SNOW SHOWERS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND
GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE WIND...IT WILL
FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S.  CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS STILL MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
PRECIP TO BE CLOSER TO SNE WHILE THE GFS PUSHES EVEN FARTHER SOUTH
IMPACTING THE MID-ATLANTIC. OVERALL BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE PRECIP. MODELS ARE
SIMILAR ON THE TIMING BRINGING PRECIP IN OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING OUT
BY LATE WED MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA.

* WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL. BECAUSE OF THE MODEL
DISCREPANCIES HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...BUT BOTH
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE POINT TOWARDS WET WEATHER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LASTLY TEMPS MAY TURN MORE SPRING-LIKE BY
THURS/FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THIS AFTERNOON... MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS IN SNOW MOST AREAS
EXCEPT RAIN AND SNOW CAPE COD AND ISLAND. LOCAL IFR CIGS.

TONIGHT... MIXED MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUE BEFORE MIDNIGHT
WITH AREAS OF SNOW IN THE EAST. TREND SHIFTS TO VFR AFTER
MIDNIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.

SUNDAY...VFR. IFR MAY LINGER NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS IN THE
MORNING BUT WITH THE TREND TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LINGERING MVFR ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. VFR
EVERYWHERE ELSE.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR
20-25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR
SOUTH OF PIKE IN QUICK MOVING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY.

NORTH WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE...FREQUENTLY
GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON MOST MA WATERS AND ON RI SOUND. GUSTS TO
30 KNOTS POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER WATERS EAST OF MA. SEAS WILL BE
5-8 FEET ON ALL EXPOSED WATERS AND 1 TO 4 FEET ON THE REMAINING
WATERS.

WINDS ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS DIMINISH THIS EVENING WHILE WINDS
FARTHER OFFSHORE MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TO FALL BELOW 25
KNOTS. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS WE EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN AT THEIR
DAYTIME LEVELS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
DIMINISH AT THAT TIME. LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED TO ALL WATERS EXCEPT
NARRAGANSETT BAY...AND EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY FOR MOST WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT AS
WINDS BACK TO SW. APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL INCREASE SEAS
IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP
SEAS UP ABOVE SCA.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SCA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON WED ALLOWING FOR SEAS
AND WINDS TO RELAX.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-235-237-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN/GAF
NEAR TERM...GAF
SHORT TERM...WTB/GAF
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN/GAF
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN/GAF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 281126
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
726 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE BUT SPREAD LIGHT
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH DRY WEATHER. ANOTHER BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE LIGHT RAIN
AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRES MAY
APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK WITH MORE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

730 AM UPDATE...

BULK OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY. PRECIP THAT WAS
ACROSS THE CAPE HAS SPREAD NORTHWEST OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. ALSO
THE SCT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS VT HAS MOVED SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
NORTHWEST MASS. THUS FAR HAVE ONLY RECEIVED REPORTS OF FLURRIES
WITH THE NORTHWEST ECHOES AND RAIN AND SNOW MIX FOR THE SOUTHERN
ECHOES. BELIEVE ACCUMS WILL BE TOUGH THIS MORNING AS TEMPS ARE IN
THE MID 30S HOWEVER IF ANY HEAVY BAND DOES DEVELOP THEN VSBYS WILL
DROP AND SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE.


TODAY...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES BRINGS COLD ADVECTION SURFACE
AND ALOFT...DESTABILIZING THE AIRMASS. VERTICAL PROFILES SHOW A
DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH 20-30 MB/HOUR OF
LIFT. LARGE SCALE AND MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT A
SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE EAST COAST OF MASS AND THEN
PIVOTING ACROSS EASTERN MASS AND RI.

ALL OF THIS WOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPING PCPN. THE UPPER TROUGH AND
DESTABILIZATION WOULD FAVOR A CONVECTIVE MODE /SHOWERS/ RATHER
THAN STRATIFORM.

SURFACE TEMPS WOULD SUGGEST RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND AND SNOW
INLAND. TEMPS AT OR ABOVE 950 MB WOULD SUGGEST SNOW ALL AREAS
EXCEPT CAPE COD/ISLANDS. PTYPE AND POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL
HINGE ON THESE TEMPERATURES. WE SPECULATE THAT MANY OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY LEAVE A SLUSHY ACCUMULATION...BUT LESS THAN WHAT WE
WOULD HAVE SEEN 1 1/2 MONTHS AGO. THE BEST CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATIONS WILL COME IN THE HILL COUNTRY SUCH AS THE WORCESTER
HILLS IN MASS AND THE HILLS IN NORTHEAST CT/NORTHWEST RI.
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE BY EVENING...BUT
BECAUSE THESE ARE SHOWERS THE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD NOT BE UNIFORM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.
OFFSHORE LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES WHILE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS MAINTAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR PCPN WHILE
COOLING NIGHTIME TEMPS WOULD FAVOR SNOW OR RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.
THE PIVOTING SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
ANY PCPN OVER OUR AREA DIMINISHING. BASED ON EXPECTED TEMPS AND
LIGHT PCPN THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT WE PROJECT STORM TOTAL OF 1-3
INCHES IN THE HILLS AND AROUND 1 INCH IN THE LOWER TERRAIN.

NORTH WINDS WILL PULL /YET AGAIN/ COLDER THAN NORMAL AIR ACROSS
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN IN THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S. CLOUDS MAY SLOW COOLING A LITTLE...SO WE FAVORED 15
TO 25 DEGREES.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA SURFACE AND ALOFT. THIS
SHOULD BRING SUNNY SKIES MOST AREAS. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING IN EASTERN MASS. TEMPS ALOFT SUGGEST HIGHS
IN THE 30S...BUT WARM ADVECTION LATE IN THE DAY MAY NUDGE VALUES
TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SOMETIME DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
NEXT WEEK. FIRST SYSTEM IS ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A WAVE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND FINALLY A SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY. OVERALL...A QUICK MOVING
RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY BEFORE NORTHWEST
FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
WITH IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

IT IS DIFFICULT TO ANY DETERMINISTIC MODEL OVER ANOTHER SINCE ALL
FALL WITHIN THE MULTI-CENTER ENSEMBLE SPREAD. NEVERTHELESS... THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH SOME...NOT ALL...FEATURES ACROSS
THE REGION THAN THE GFS AND HAS MORE SUPPORT FROM THE CMC/UKMET.
NOTHING SHOWS GOOD MULTI-DAY CONTINUITY AND THE TREND HAS BEEN BOTH
SLOWER AND QUICKER... DEPENDING ON THE SYSTEM OF INTEREST. THEREFOR
TRENDED TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

* SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH NW FLOW ALOFT
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM KEEPING MOST OF SUN PM DRY AND BRINGING PRECIP
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS
JUST NORTH OF SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT
THE ONSET LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT. EXPECT VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN ANY SNOW SHOWERS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND
GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE WIND...IT WILL
FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S.  CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS STILL MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
PRECIP TO BE CLOSER TO SNE WHILE THE GFS PUSHES EVEN FARTHER SOUTH
IMPACTING THE MID-ATLANTIC. OVERALL BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE PRECIP. MODELS ARE
SIMILAR ON THE TIMING BRINGING PRECIP IN OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING OUT
BY LATE WED MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA.

* WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL. BECAUSE OF THE MODEL
DISCREPANCIES HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...BUT BOTH
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE POINT TOWARDS WET WEATHER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LASTLY TEMPS MAY TURN MORE SPRING-LIKE BY
THURS/FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

TODAY...
MVFR CIGS MOVING INTO THE SOUTH COAST AND THE BERKSHIRES. VFR IN
BETWEEN. EXPECT A TREND TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS. LOW PROB OF SNOW
ACCUM ON RUNWAYS.

TONIGHT...
MIXED MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUE EARLY NIGHT...SIMILAR TO
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY BUT WITH BROADER FAVORING OF SNOW AS
TEMPERATURES COOL. TREND SHIFTS TO VFR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN.

SUNDAY...VFR. IFR MAY LINGER NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS IN THE
MORNING BUT WITH THE TREND TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LINGERING MVFR ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. VFR
EVERYWHERE ELSE.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR
20-25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR
SOUTH OF PIKE IN QUICK MOVING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE SUNDAY.

NORTH WINDS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT
THESE WINDS WILL FREQUENTLY GUST TO 25 KNOTS ON MOST MASSACHUSETTS
WATERS AND POSSIBLY RI SOUND. GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE ON THE
OUTER WATERS EAST OF MASS. SEAS WILL BE 5-8 FEET ON ALL EXPOSED
WATERS AND 1 TO 4 FEET ON THE REMAINING WATERS.

WINDS ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS DIMINISH THIS EVENING WHILE WINDS
FARTHER OFFSHORE MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TO FALL BELOW 25
KNOTS. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS WE EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN AT THEIR
DAYTIME LEVELS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
DIMINISH AT THAT TIME. LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED TO ALL WATERS EXCEPT
NARRAGANSETT BAY...AND EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY FOR MOST WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT AS
WINDS BACK TO SW. APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL INCREASE SEAS
IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP
SEAS UP ABOVE SCA.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SCA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON WED ALLOWING FOR SEAS
AND WINDS TO RELAX.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-235-237-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 281126
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
726 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE BUT SPREAD LIGHT
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH DRY WEATHER. ANOTHER BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE LIGHT RAIN
AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRES MAY
APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK WITH MORE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

730 AM UPDATE...

BULK OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY. PRECIP THAT WAS
ACROSS THE CAPE HAS SPREAD NORTHWEST OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. ALSO
THE SCT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS VT HAS MOVED SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
NORTHWEST MASS. THUS FAR HAVE ONLY RECEIVED REPORTS OF FLURRIES
WITH THE NORTHWEST ECHOES AND RAIN AND SNOW MIX FOR THE SOUTHERN
ECHOES. BELIEVE ACCUMS WILL BE TOUGH THIS MORNING AS TEMPS ARE IN
THE MID 30S HOWEVER IF ANY HEAVY BAND DOES DEVELOP THEN VSBYS WILL
DROP AND SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE.


TODAY...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES BRINGS COLD ADVECTION SURFACE
AND ALOFT...DESTABILIZING THE AIRMASS. VERTICAL PROFILES SHOW A
DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH 20-30 MB/HOUR OF
LIFT. LARGE SCALE AND MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT A
SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE EAST COAST OF MASS AND THEN
PIVOTING ACROSS EASTERN MASS AND RI.

ALL OF THIS WOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPING PCPN. THE UPPER TROUGH AND
DESTABILIZATION WOULD FAVOR A CONVECTIVE MODE /SHOWERS/ RATHER
THAN STRATIFORM.

SURFACE TEMPS WOULD SUGGEST RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND AND SNOW
INLAND. TEMPS AT OR ABOVE 950 MB WOULD SUGGEST SNOW ALL AREAS
EXCEPT CAPE COD/ISLANDS. PTYPE AND POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL
HINGE ON THESE TEMPERATURES. WE SPECULATE THAT MANY OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY LEAVE A SLUSHY ACCUMULATION...BUT LESS THAN WHAT WE
WOULD HAVE SEEN 1 1/2 MONTHS AGO. THE BEST CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATIONS WILL COME IN THE HILL COUNTRY SUCH AS THE WORCESTER
HILLS IN MASS AND THE HILLS IN NORTHEAST CT/NORTHWEST RI.
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE BY EVENING...BUT
BECAUSE THESE ARE SHOWERS THE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD NOT BE UNIFORM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.
OFFSHORE LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES WHILE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS MAINTAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR PCPN WHILE
COOLING NIGHTIME TEMPS WOULD FAVOR SNOW OR RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.
THE PIVOTING SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
ANY PCPN OVER OUR AREA DIMINISHING. BASED ON EXPECTED TEMPS AND
LIGHT PCPN THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT WE PROJECT STORM TOTAL OF 1-3
INCHES IN THE HILLS AND AROUND 1 INCH IN THE LOWER TERRAIN.

NORTH WINDS WILL PULL /YET AGAIN/ COLDER THAN NORMAL AIR ACROSS
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN IN THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S. CLOUDS MAY SLOW COOLING A LITTLE...SO WE FAVORED 15
TO 25 DEGREES.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA SURFACE AND ALOFT. THIS
SHOULD BRING SUNNY SKIES MOST AREAS. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING IN EASTERN MASS. TEMPS ALOFT SUGGEST HIGHS
IN THE 30S...BUT WARM ADVECTION LATE IN THE DAY MAY NUDGE VALUES
TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SOMETIME DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
NEXT WEEK. FIRST SYSTEM IS ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A WAVE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND FINALLY A SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY. OVERALL...A QUICK MOVING
RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY BEFORE NORTHWEST
FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
WITH IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

IT IS DIFFICULT TO ANY DETERMINISTIC MODEL OVER ANOTHER SINCE ALL
FALL WITHIN THE MULTI-CENTER ENSEMBLE SPREAD. NEVERTHELESS... THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH SOME...NOT ALL...FEATURES ACROSS
THE REGION THAN THE GFS AND HAS MORE SUPPORT FROM THE CMC/UKMET.
NOTHING SHOWS GOOD MULTI-DAY CONTINUITY AND THE TREND HAS BEEN BOTH
SLOWER AND QUICKER... DEPENDING ON THE SYSTEM OF INTEREST. THEREFOR
TRENDED TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

* SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH NW FLOW ALOFT
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM KEEPING MOST OF SUN PM DRY AND BRINGING PRECIP
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS
JUST NORTH OF SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT
THE ONSET LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT. EXPECT VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN ANY SNOW SHOWERS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND
GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE WIND...IT WILL
FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S.  CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS STILL MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
PRECIP TO BE CLOSER TO SNE WHILE THE GFS PUSHES EVEN FARTHER SOUTH
IMPACTING THE MID-ATLANTIC. OVERALL BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE PRECIP. MODELS ARE
SIMILAR ON THE TIMING BRINGING PRECIP IN OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING OUT
BY LATE WED MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA.

* WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL. BECAUSE OF THE MODEL
DISCREPANCIES HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...BUT BOTH
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE POINT TOWARDS WET WEATHER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LASTLY TEMPS MAY TURN MORE SPRING-LIKE BY
THURS/FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

TODAY...
MVFR CIGS MOVING INTO THE SOUTH COAST AND THE BERKSHIRES. VFR IN
BETWEEN. EXPECT A TREND TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS. LOW PROB OF SNOW
ACCUM ON RUNWAYS.

TONIGHT...
MIXED MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUE EARLY NIGHT...SIMILAR TO
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY BUT WITH BROADER FAVORING OF SNOW AS
TEMPERATURES COOL. TREND SHIFTS TO VFR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN.

SUNDAY...VFR. IFR MAY LINGER NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS IN THE
MORNING BUT WITH THE TREND TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LINGERING MVFR ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. VFR
EVERYWHERE ELSE.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR
20-25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR
SOUTH OF PIKE IN QUICK MOVING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE SUNDAY.

NORTH WINDS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT
THESE WINDS WILL FREQUENTLY GUST TO 25 KNOTS ON MOST MASSACHUSETTS
WATERS AND POSSIBLY RI SOUND. GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE ON THE
OUTER WATERS EAST OF MASS. SEAS WILL BE 5-8 FEET ON ALL EXPOSED
WATERS AND 1 TO 4 FEET ON THE REMAINING WATERS.

WINDS ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS DIMINISH THIS EVENING WHILE WINDS
FARTHER OFFSHORE MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TO FALL BELOW 25
KNOTS. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS WE EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN AT THEIR
DAYTIME LEVELS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
DIMINISH AT THAT TIME. LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED TO ALL WATERS EXCEPT
NARRAGANSETT BAY...AND EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY FOR MOST WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT AS
WINDS BACK TO SW. APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL INCREASE SEAS
IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP
SEAS UP ABOVE SCA.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SCA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON WED ALLOWING FOR SEAS
AND WINDS TO RELAX.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-235-237-
     251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 280812
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
412 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE BUT SPREAD LIGHT
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH DRY WEATHER. ANOTHER BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE LIGHT RAIN
AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRES MAY
APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK WITH MORE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH 8 AM...
RADAR SHOWS TWO AREAS OF LIGHT PCPN MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. ONE GLIDES UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH COASTAL
SECTIONS...WHILE THE SECOND SWEEPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE ADIRONDACKS
INTO WESTERN MASS. OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON THE
SOUTH COAST AND FLURRIES MOVING FROM NEW YOUR INTO THE BERKSHIRES.
EXPECT LIGHT PCPN TO MOVE DEEPER INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY
THIS MORNING. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TIMING...BUT HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON THE TREND.

TODAY...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES BRINGS COLD ADVECTION SURFACE
AND ALOFT...DESTABILIZING THE AIRMASS. VERTICAL PROFILES SHOW A
DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH 20-30 MB/HOUR OF
LIFT. LARGE SCALE AND MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT A
SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE EAST COAST OF MASS AND THEN
PIVOTING ACROSS EASTERN MASS AND RI.

ALL OF THIS WOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPING PCPN. THE UPPER TROUGH AND
DESTABILIZATION WOULD FAVOR A CONVECTIVE MODE /SHOWERS/ RATHER
THAN STRATIFORM.

SURFACE TEMPS WOULD SUGGEST RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND AND SNOW
INLAND. TEMPS AT OR ABOVE 950 MB WOULD SUGGEST SNOW ALL AREAS
EXCEPT CAPE COD/ISLANDS. PTYPE AND POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL
HINGE ON THESE TEMPERATURES. WE SPECULATE THAT MANY OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY LEAVE A SLUSHY ACCUMULATION...BUT LESS THAN WHAT WE
WOULD HAVE SEEN 1 1/2 MONTHS AGO. THE BEST CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATIONS WILL COME IN THE HILL COUNTRY SUCH AS THE WORCESTER
HILLS IN MASS AND THE HILLS IN NORTHEAST CT/NORTHWEST RI.
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE BY EVENING...BUT
BECAUSE THESE ARE SHOWERS THE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD NOT BE UNIFORM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.
OFFSHORE LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES WHILE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS MAINTAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR PCPN WHILE
COOLING NIGHTIME TEMPS WOULD FAVOR SNOW OR RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.
THE PIVOTING SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
ANY PCPN OVER OUR AREA DIMINISHING. BASED ON EXPECTED TEMPS AND
LIGHT PCPN THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT WE PROJECT STORM TOTAL OF 1-3
INCHES IN THE HILLS AND AROUND 1 INCH IN THE LOWER TERRAIN.

NORTH WINDS WILL PULL /YET AGAIN/ COLDER THAN NORMAL AIR ACROSS
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN IN THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S. CLOUDS MAY SLOW COOLING A LITTLE...SO WE FAVORED 15
TO 25 DEGREES.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA SURFACE AND ALOFT. THIS
SHOULD BRING SUNNY SKIES MOST AREAS. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING IN EASTERN MASS. TEMPS ALOFT SUGGEST HIGHS
IN THE 30S...BUT WARM ADVECTION LATE IN THE DAY MAY NUDGE VALUES
TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SOMETIME DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
NEXT WEEK. FIRST SYSTEM IS ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A WAVE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND FINALLY A SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY. OVERALL...A QUICK MOVING
RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY BEFORE NORTHWEST
FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
WITH IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

IT IS DIFFICULT TO ANY DETERMINISTIC MODEL OVER ANOTHER SINCE ALL
FALL WITHIN THE MULTI-CENTER ENSEMBLE SPREAD. NEVERTHELESS... THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH SOME...NOT ALL...FEATURES ACROSS
THE REGION THAN THE GFS AND HAS MORE SUPPORT FROM THE CMC/UKMET.
NOTHING SHOWS GOOD MULTI-DAY CONTINUITY AND THE TREND HAS BEEN BOTH
SLOWER AND QUICKER... DEPENDING ON THE SYSTEM OF INTEREST. THEREFOR
TRENDED TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

* SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH NW FLOW ALOFT
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM KEEPING MOST OF SUN PM DRY AND BRINGING PRECIP
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS
JUST NORTH OF SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT
THE ONSET LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT. EXPECT VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN ANY SNOW SHOWERS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND
GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE WIND...IT WILL
FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S.  CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS STILL MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
PRECIP TO BE CLOSER TO SNE WHILE THE GFS PUSHES EVEN FARTHER SOUTH
IMPACTING THE MID-ATLANTIC. OVERALL BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE PRECIP. MODELS ARE
SIMILAR ON THE TIMING BRINGING PRECIP IN OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING OUT
BY LATE WED MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA.

* WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL. BECAUSE OF THE MODEL
DISCREPANCIES HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...BUT BOTH
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE POINT TOWARDS WET WEATHER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LASTLY TEMPS MAY TURN MORE SPRING-LIKE BY
THURS/FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

TODAY...
MVFR CIGS MOVING INTO THE SOUTH COAST AND THE BERKSHIRES. VFR IN
BETWEEN. EXPECT A TREND TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...
MIXED MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUE EARLY NIGHT...SIMILAR TO
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY BUT WITH BROADER FAVORING OF SNOW AS
TEMPERATURES COOL. TREND SHIFTS TO VFR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN.

SUNDAY...VFR. IFR MAY LINGER NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS IN THE
MORNING BUT WITH THE TREND TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LINGERING MVFR ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. VFR
EVERYWHERE ELSE.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR
20-25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR
SOUTH OF PIKE IN QUICK MOVING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE SUNDAY.

NORTH WINDS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT
THESE WINDS WILL FREQUENTLY GUST TO 25 KNOTS ON MOST MASSACHUSETTS
WATERS AND POSSIBLY RI SOUND. GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE ON THE
OUTER WATERS EAST OF MASS. SEAS WILL BE 5-8 FEET ON ALL EXPOSED
WATERS AND 1 TO 4 FEET ON THE REMAINING WATERS.

WINDS ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS DIMINISH THIS EVENING WHILE WINDS
FARTHER OFFSHORE MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TO FALL BELOW 25
KNOTS. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS WE EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN AT THEIR
DAYTIME LEVELS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
DIMINISH AT THAT TIME. LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED TO ALL WATERS EXCEPT
NARRAGANSETT BAY...AND EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY FOR MOST WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT AS
WINDS BACK TO SW. APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL INCREASE SEAS
IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP
SEAS UP ABOVE SCA.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SCA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON WED ALLOWING FOR SEAS
AND WINDS TO RELAX.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 280812
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
412 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE BUT SPREAD LIGHT
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH DRY WEATHER. ANOTHER BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE LIGHT RAIN
AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRES MAY
APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK WITH MORE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH 8 AM...
RADAR SHOWS TWO AREAS OF LIGHT PCPN MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. ONE GLIDES UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH COASTAL
SECTIONS...WHILE THE SECOND SWEEPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE ADIRONDACKS
INTO WESTERN MASS. OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON THE
SOUTH COAST AND FLURRIES MOVING FROM NEW YOUR INTO THE BERKSHIRES.
EXPECT LIGHT PCPN TO MOVE DEEPER INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY
THIS MORNING. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TIMING...BUT HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON THE TREND.

TODAY...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES BRINGS COLD ADVECTION SURFACE
AND ALOFT...DESTABILIZING THE AIRMASS. VERTICAL PROFILES SHOW A
DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH 20-30 MB/HOUR OF
LIFT. LARGE SCALE AND MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT A
SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE EAST COAST OF MASS AND THEN
PIVOTING ACROSS EASTERN MASS AND RI.

ALL OF THIS WOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPING PCPN. THE UPPER TROUGH AND
DESTABILIZATION WOULD FAVOR A CONVECTIVE MODE /SHOWERS/ RATHER
THAN STRATIFORM.

SURFACE TEMPS WOULD SUGGEST RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND AND SNOW
INLAND. TEMPS AT OR ABOVE 950 MB WOULD SUGGEST SNOW ALL AREAS
EXCEPT CAPE COD/ISLANDS. PTYPE AND POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL
HINGE ON THESE TEMPERATURES. WE SPECULATE THAT MANY OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY LEAVE A SLUSHY ACCUMULATION...BUT LESS THAN WHAT WE
WOULD HAVE SEEN 1 1/2 MONTHS AGO. THE BEST CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATIONS WILL COME IN THE HILL COUNTRY SUCH AS THE WORCESTER
HILLS IN MASS AND THE HILLS IN NORTHEAST CT/NORTHWEST RI.
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE BY EVENING...BUT
BECAUSE THESE ARE SHOWERS THE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD NOT BE UNIFORM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.
OFFSHORE LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES WHILE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS MAINTAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR PCPN WHILE
COOLING NIGHTIME TEMPS WOULD FAVOR SNOW OR RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.
THE PIVOTING SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
ANY PCPN OVER OUR AREA DIMINISHING. BASED ON EXPECTED TEMPS AND
LIGHT PCPN THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT WE PROJECT STORM TOTAL OF 1-3
INCHES IN THE HILLS AND AROUND 1 INCH IN THE LOWER TERRAIN.

NORTH WINDS WILL PULL /YET AGAIN/ COLDER THAN NORMAL AIR ACROSS
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN IN THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S. CLOUDS MAY SLOW COOLING A LITTLE...SO WE FAVORED 15
TO 25 DEGREES.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA SURFACE AND ALOFT. THIS
SHOULD BRING SUNNY SKIES MOST AREAS. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING IN EASTERN MASS. TEMPS ALOFT SUGGEST HIGHS
IN THE 30S...BUT WARM ADVECTION LATE IN THE DAY MAY NUDGE VALUES
TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
* INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SOMETIME DURING THE EASTER WEEKEND

OVERVIEW...

ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
NEXT WEEK. FIRST SYSTEM IS ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A WAVE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND FINALLY A SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY. OVERALL...A QUICK MOVING
RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY BEFORE NORTHWEST
FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
WITH IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

IT IS DIFFICULT TO ANY DETERMINISTIC MODEL OVER ANOTHER SINCE ALL
FALL WITHIN THE MULTI-CENTER ENSEMBLE SPREAD. NEVERTHELESS... THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH SOME...NOT ALL...FEATURES ACROSS
THE REGION THAN THE GFS AND HAS MORE SUPPORT FROM THE CMC/UKMET.
NOTHING SHOWS GOOD MULTI-DAY CONTINUITY AND THE TREND HAS BEEN BOTH
SLOWER AND QUICKER... DEPENDING ON THE SYSTEM OF INTEREST. THEREFOR
TRENDED TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

* SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH NW FLOW ALOFT
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM KEEPING MOST OF SUN PM DRY AND BRINGING PRECIP
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS
JUST NORTH OF SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT
THE ONSET LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT. EXPECT VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN ANY SNOW SHOWERS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND
GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS SQUEEZED
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WITH THE WIND...IT WILL
FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 30S.  CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS STILL MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
PRECIP TO BE CLOSER TO SNE WHILE THE GFS PUSHES EVEN FARTHER SOUTH
IMPACTING THE MID-ATLANTIC. OVERALL BELIEVE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PIKE HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE PRECIP. MODELS ARE
SIMILAR ON THE TIMING BRINGING PRECIP IN OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING OUT
BY LATE WED MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM SINCE IT COULD PRODUCE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA.

* WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODERATE
  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP OCCURRING.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL. BECAUSE OF THE MODEL
DISCREPANCIES HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...BUT BOTH
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE POINT TOWARDS WET WEATHER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LASTLY TEMPS MAY TURN MORE SPRING-LIKE BY
THURS/FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

TODAY...
MVFR CIGS MOVING INTO THE SOUTH COAST AND THE BERKSHIRES. VFR IN
BETWEEN. EXPECT A TREND TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...
MIXED MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUE EARLY NIGHT...SIMILAR TO
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY BUT WITH BROADER FAVORING OF SNOW AS
TEMPERATURES COOL. TREND SHIFTS TO VFR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN.

SUNDAY...VFR. IFR MAY LINGER NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS IN THE
MORNING BUT WITH THE TREND TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LINGERING MVFR ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. VFR
EVERYWHERE ELSE.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR
20-25 KTS.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR
SOUTH OF PIKE IN QUICK MOVING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE SUNDAY.

NORTH WINDS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT
THESE WINDS WILL FREQUENTLY GUST TO 25 KNOTS ON MOST MASSACHUSETTS
WATERS AND POSSIBLY RI SOUND. GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE ON THE
OUTER WATERS EAST OF MASS. SEAS WILL BE 5-8 FEET ON ALL EXPOSED
WATERS AND 1 TO 4 FEET ON THE REMAINING WATERS.

WINDS ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS DIMINISH THIS EVENING WHILE WINDS
FARTHER OFFSHORE MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TO FALL BELOW 25
KNOTS. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS WE EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN AT THEIR
DAYTIME LEVELS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
DIMINISH AT THAT TIME. LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED TO ALL WATERS EXCEPT
NARRAGANSETT BAY...AND EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY FOR MOST WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT AS
WINDS BACK TO SW. APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL INCREASE SEAS
IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP
SEAS UP ABOVE SCA.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS WILL KEEP BOTH SEAS AND WINDS ABOVE SCA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON WED ALLOWING FOR SEAS
AND WINDS TO RELAX.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 280721
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
321 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE BUT SPREAD LIGHT
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH DRY WEATHER. ANOTHER BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE LIGHT RAIN
AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRES MAY
APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK WITH MORE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH 8 AM...
RADAR SHOWS TWO AREAS OF LIGHT PCPN MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. ONE GLIDES UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH COASTAL
SECTIONS...WHILE THE SECOND SWEEPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE ADIRONDACKS
INTO WESTERN MASS. OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON THE
SOUTH COAST AND FLURRIES MOVING FROM NEW YOUR INTO THE BERKSHIRES.
EXPECT LIGHT PCPN TO MOVE DEEPER INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY
THIS MORNING. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TIMING...BUT HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON THE TREND.

TODAY...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES BRINGS COLD ADVECTION SURFACE
AND ALOFT...DESTABILIZING THE AIRMASS. VERTICAL PROFILES SHOW A
DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH 20-30 MB/HOUR OF
LIFT. LARGE SCALE AND MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT A
SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE EAST COAST OF MASS AND THEN
PIVOTING ACROSS EASTERN MASS AND RI.

ALL OF THIS WOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPING PCPN. THE UPPER TROUGH AND
DESTABILIZATION WOULD FAVOR A CONVECTIVE MODE /SHOWERS/ RATHER
THAN STRATIFORM.

SURFACE TEMPS WOULD SUGGEST RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND AND SNOW
INLAND. TEMPS AT OR ABOVE 950 MB WOULD SUGGEST SNOW ALL AREAS
EXCEPT CAPE COD/ISLANDS. PTYPE AND POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL
HINGE ON THESE TEMPERATURES. WE SPECULATE THAT MANY OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY LEAVE A SLUSHY ACCUMULATION...BUT LESS THAN WHAT WE
WOULD HAVE SEEN 1 1/2 MONTHS AGO. THE BEST CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATIONS WILL COME IN THE HILL COUNTRY SUCH AS THE WORCESTER
HILLS IN MASS AND THE HILLS IN NORTHEAST CT/NORTHWEST RI.
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE BY EVENING...BUT
BECAUSE THESE ARE SHOWERS THE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD NOT BE UNIFORM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.
OFFSHORE LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES WHILE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS MAINTAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR PCPN WHILE
COOLING NIGHTIME TEMPS WOULD FAVOR SNOW OR RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.
THE PIVOTING SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
ANY PCPN OVER OUR AREA DIMINISHING. BASED ON EXPECTED TEMPS AND
LIGHT PCPN THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT WE PROJECT STORM TOTAL OF 1-3
INCHES IN THE HILLS AND AROUND 1 INCH IN THE LOWER TERRAIN.

NORTH WINDS WILL PULL /YET AGAIN/ COLDER THAN NORMAL AIR ACROSS
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN IN THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S. CLOUDS MAY SLOW COOLING A LITTLE...SO WE FAVORED 15
TO 25 DEGREES.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA SURFACE AND ALOFT. THIS
SHOULD BRING SUNNY SKIES MOST AREAS. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING IN EASTERN MASS. TEMPS ALOFT SUGGEST HIGHS
IN THE 30S...BUT WARM ADVECTION LATE IN THE DAY MAY NUDGE VALUES
TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* SPRING LIKE TEMPS MOVE IN FOR TUE-THU
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED

OVERVIEW...
12Z MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A TRANSITION OUT
OF AMPLIFIED TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY THIS WEEKEND
TO A FAST MOVING...ACTIVE STORM TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES TEND
WILL TO MODERATE OVER TIME...GETTING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...WITH FAST W-NW FLOW ALOFT AS H5
RIDGE BUILDS INTO WESTERN CANADA...WILL SEE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
IN THIS FLOW BRINGING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS.
TIMING THE INDIVIDUAL FEATURES IS TOUGH SO THIS LENDS TO BELOW
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

H5 TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST ALONG WITH INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NORTHERN EDGE OF LARGE HIGH PRES PASSING
ACROSS THE MID ATLC AND SE U.S. WILL BRING BRIEF DRYING BUT TEMPS
WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. BEYOND THIS...SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
WILL MOVE ACROSS WITH PERIODS OF SCT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY BEYOND.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM W-E SUN NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT PUSHES IN. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK TO THE 20S EARLY SUN
NIGHT...THEN HOLD STEADY OR RISE A FEW DEGS AS CLOUDS MOVE IN AND
SW WINDS PICK UP. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MIGHT MAKE IT INTO THE E
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND QUICKLY PUSHES
TOWARD THE REGION. MAY SEE SOME WIDELY SCT SNOW SHOWERS AS THE
PRECIP BEGINS MON MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...THEN
WILL CHANGE OVER TO SCT RAIN SHOWERS BY MIDDAY AS TEMPS RECOVER TO
THE 40S. THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY...WITH PRECIP TAPERING
OFF MONDAY EVENING. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S
MON NIGHT.

BRIEF RESPITE IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES ACROSS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL REACH THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S...THOUGH COOLER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WORKS OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
LATER TUE...REACHING THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY
WITH TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...THOUGH TIMING IS FAIRLY GOOD WITH PRECIP
ARRIVING TUE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TUE NIGHT. NOT A WHOLE
LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE SO WILL SEE SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WHICH WILL CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DURING TUE NIGHT.
EXPECT PRECIP TO TAPER OFF ACROSS WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE WED MORNING SO EXPECT PRECIP
TO TAPER OFF FROM W-E DURING THE MORNING. HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS FOR THE REMAINDER OF WED INTO WED NIGHT. MID LEVEL RIDGE
ALSO BUILDS E...SO WILL SEE TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON
WED.

HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THU NIGHT. TIMING OF NEXT
APPROACHING COMPLEX SYSTEM IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION THOUGH AS H5
TROUGH DIGS OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. GFS REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE ECWMF IS SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED. FOR
NOW...INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS FOR THU/THU NIGHT...THEN WENT WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW ON FRI. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE DURING
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

TODAY...
MVFR CIGS MOVING INTO THE SOUTH COAST AND THE BERKSHIRES. VFR IN
BETWEEN. EXPECT A TREND TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...
MIXED MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUE EARLY NIGHT...SIMILAR TO
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY BUT WITH BROADER FAVORING OF SNOW AS
TEMPERATURES COOL. TREND SHIFTS TO VFR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN.

SUNDAY...VFR. IFR MAY LINGER NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS IN THE
MORNING BUT WITH THE TREND TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY BUT DROPPING TO
LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM W-E MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY TUE...THEN
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN DEVELOPING SCT RAIN SHOWERS TUE
AFTERNOON. PRECIP CHANGES TO SNOW SHOWERS TUE NIGHT...THEN BACK TO
RAIN SHOWERS BEFORE TAPERING OFF AROUND MIDDAY WED WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE SUNDAY.

NORTH WINDS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT
THESE WINDS WILL FREQUENTLY GUST TO 25 KNOTS ON MOST MASSACHUSETTS
WATERS AND POSSIBLY RI SOUND. GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE ON THE
OUTER WATERS EAST OF MASS. SEAS WILL BE 5-8 FEET ON ALL EXPOSED
WATERS AND 1 TO 4 FEET ON THE REMAINING WATERS.

WINDS ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS DIMINISH THIS EVENING WHILE WINDS
FARTHER OFFSHORE MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TO FALL BELOW 25
KNOTS. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS WE EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN AT THEIR
DAYTIME LEVELS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
DIMINISH AT THAT TIME. LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED TO ALL WATERS EXCEPT
NARRAGANSETT BAY...AND EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY FOR MOST WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...N-NE WINDS BRIEFLY DIMINISH EARLY SAT NIGHT THEN
INCREASE AGAIN. GUSTS TO 25-30 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE OPEN WATERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS UP TO 6-8 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT N WINDS TO SHIFT TO SW DURING
SUNDAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25-30 KT. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5
FT ON THE OPEN WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO W...CONTINUE TO GUST TO
25-30 KT HIGHEST ON THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5 FT. WINDS
MAY BEGIN TO DIMINISH TUE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...EXPECT N-NW WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
SEAS MAY LINGER AROUND 5 FT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 280721
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
321 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE BUT SPREAD LIGHT
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH DRY WEATHER. ANOTHER BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE LIGHT RAIN
AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRES MAY
APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK WITH MORE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH 8 AM...
RADAR SHOWS TWO AREAS OF LIGHT PCPN MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. ONE GLIDES UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH COASTAL
SECTIONS...WHILE THE SECOND SWEEPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE ADIRONDACKS
INTO WESTERN MASS. OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON THE
SOUTH COAST AND FLURRIES MOVING FROM NEW YOUR INTO THE BERKSHIRES.
EXPECT LIGHT PCPN TO MOVE DEEPER INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY
THIS MORNING. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TIMING...BUT HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON THE TREND.

TODAY...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES BRINGS COLD ADVECTION SURFACE
AND ALOFT...DESTABILIZING THE AIRMASS. VERTICAL PROFILES SHOW A
DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH 20-30 MB/HOUR OF
LIFT. LARGE SCALE AND MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT A
SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE EAST COAST OF MASS AND THEN
PIVOTING ACROSS EASTERN MASS AND RI.

ALL OF THIS WOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPING PCPN. THE UPPER TROUGH AND
DESTABILIZATION WOULD FAVOR A CONVECTIVE MODE /SHOWERS/ RATHER
THAN STRATIFORM.

SURFACE TEMPS WOULD SUGGEST RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND AND SNOW
INLAND. TEMPS AT OR ABOVE 950 MB WOULD SUGGEST SNOW ALL AREAS
EXCEPT CAPE COD/ISLANDS. PTYPE AND POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL
HINGE ON THESE TEMPERATURES. WE SPECULATE THAT MANY OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY LEAVE A SLUSHY ACCUMULATION...BUT LESS THAN WHAT WE
WOULD HAVE SEEN 1 1/2 MONTHS AGO. THE BEST CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATIONS WILL COME IN THE HILL COUNTRY SUCH AS THE WORCESTER
HILLS IN MASS AND THE HILLS IN NORTHEAST CT/NORTHWEST RI.
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE BY EVENING...BUT
BECAUSE THESE ARE SHOWERS THE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD NOT BE UNIFORM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.
OFFSHORE LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES WHILE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS MAINTAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR PCPN WHILE
COOLING NIGHTIME TEMPS WOULD FAVOR SNOW OR RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.
THE PIVOTING SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
ANY PCPN OVER OUR AREA DIMINISHING. BASED ON EXPECTED TEMPS AND
LIGHT PCPN THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT WE PROJECT STORM TOTAL OF 1-3
INCHES IN THE HILLS AND AROUND 1 INCH IN THE LOWER TERRAIN.

NORTH WINDS WILL PULL /YET AGAIN/ COLDER THAN NORMAL AIR ACROSS
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN IN THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S. CLOUDS MAY SLOW COOLING A LITTLE...SO WE FAVORED 15
TO 25 DEGREES.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA SURFACE AND ALOFT. THIS
SHOULD BRING SUNNY SKIES MOST AREAS. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING IN EASTERN MASS. TEMPS ALOFT SUGGEST HIGHS
IN THE 30S...BUT WARM ADVECTION LATE IN THE DAY MAY NUDGE VALUES
TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* SPRING LIKE TEMPS MOVE IN FOR TUE-THU
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED

OVERVIEW...
12Z MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A TRANSITION OUT
OF AMPLIFIED TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY THIS WEEKEND
TO A FAST MOVING...ACTIVE STORM TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES TEND
WILL TO MODERATE OVER TIME...GETTING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...WITH FAST W-NW FLOW ALOFT AS H5
RIDGE BUILDS INTO WESTERN CANADA...WILL SEE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
IN THIS FLOW BRINGING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS.
TIMING THE INDIVIDUAL FEATURES IS TOUGH SO THIS LENDS TO BELOW
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

H5 TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST ALONG WITH INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NORTHERN EDGE OF LARGE HIGH PRES PASSING
ACROSS THE MID ATLC AND SE U.S. WILL BRING BRIEF DRYING BUT TEMPS
WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. BEYOND THIS...SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
WILL MOVE ACROSS WITH PERIODS OF SCT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY BEYOND.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM W-E SUN NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT PUSHES IN. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK TO THE 20S EARLY SUN
NIGHT...THEN HOLD STEADY OR RISE A FEW DEGS AS CLOUDS MOVE IN AND
SW WINDS PICK UP. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MIGHT MAKE IT INTO THE E
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND QUICKLY PUSHES
TOWARD THE REGION. MAY SEE SOME WIDELY SCT SNOW SHOWERS AS THE
PRECIP BEGINS MON MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...THEN
WILL CHANGE OVER TO SCT RAIN SHOWERS BY MIDDAY AS TEMPS RECOVER TO
THE 40S. THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY...WITH PRECIP TAPERING
OFF MONDAY EVENING. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S
MON NIGHT.

BRIEF RESPITE IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES ACROSS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL REACH THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S...THOUGH COOLER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WORKS OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
LATER TUE...REACHING THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY
WITH TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...THOUGH TIMING IS FAIRLY GOOD WITH PRECIP
ARRIVING TUE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TUE NIGHT. NOT A WHOLE
LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE SO WILL SEE SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WHICH WILL CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DURING TUE NIGHT.
EXPECT PRECIP TO TAPER OFF ACROSS WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE WED MORNING SO EXPECT PRECIP
TO TAPER OFF FROM W-E DURING THE MORNING. HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS FOR THE REMAINDER OF WED INTO WED NIGHT. MID LEVEL RIDGE
ALSO BUILDS E...SO WILL SEE TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON
WED.

HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THU NIGHT. TIMING OF NEXT
APPROACHING COMPLEX SYSTEM IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION THOUGH AS H5
TROUGH DIGS OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. GFS REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE ECWMF IS SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED. FOR
NOW...INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS FOR THU/THU NIGHT...THEN WENT WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW ON FRI. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE DURING
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

TODAY...
MVFR CIGS MOVING INTO THE SOUTH COAST AND THE BERKSHIRES. VFR IN
BETWEEN. EXPECT A TREND TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...
MIXED MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUE EARLY NIGHT...SIMILAR TO
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY BUT WITH BROADER FAVORING OF SNOW AS
TEMPERATURES COOL. TREND SHIFTS TO VFR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN.

SUNDAY...VFR. IFR MAY LINGER NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS IN THE
MORNING BUT WITH THE TREND TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY BUT DROPPING TO
LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM W-E MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY TUE...THEN
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN DEVELOPING SCT RAIN SHOWERS TUE
AFTERNOON. PRECIP CHANGES TO SNOW SHOWERS TUE NIGHT...THEN BACK TO
RAIN SHOWERS BEFORE TAPERING OFF AROUND MIDDAY WED WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE SUNDAY.

NORTH WINDS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT
THESE WINDS WILL FREQUENTLY GUST TO 25 KNOTS ON MOST MASSACHUSETTS
WATERS AND POSSIBLY RI SOUND. GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE ON THE
OUTER WATERS EAST OF MASS. SEAS WILL BE 5-8 FEET ON ALL EXPOSED
WATERS AND 1 TO 4 FEET ON THE REMAINING WATERS.

WINDS ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS DIMINISH THIS EVENING WHILE WINDS
FARTHER OFFSHORE MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TO FALL BELOW 25
KNOTS. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS WE EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN AT THEIR
DAYTIME LEVELS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
DIMINISH AT THAT TIME. LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED TO ALL WATERS EXCEPT
NARRAGANSETT BAY...AND EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY FOR MOST WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...N-NE WINDS BRIEFLY DIMINISH EARLY SAT NIGHT THEN
INCREASE AGAIN. GUSTS TO 25-30 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE OPEN WATERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS UP TO 6-8 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT N WINDS TO SHIFT TO SW DURING
SUNDAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25-30 KT. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5
FT ON THE OPEN WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO W...CONTINUE TO GUST TO
25-30 KT HIGHEST ON THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5 FT. WINDS
MAY BEGIN TO DIMINISH TUE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...EXPECT N-NW WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
SEAS MAY LINGER AROUND 5 FT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 280720
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
320 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE BUT SPREAD LIGHT
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH DRY WEATHER. ANOTHER BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE LIGHT RAIN
AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRES MAY
APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK WITH MORE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

THROUGH 8 AM...
RADAR SHOWS TWO AREAS OF LIGHT PCPN MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. ONE GLIDES UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH COASTAL
SECTIONS...WHILE THE SECOND SWEEPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE ADIRONDACKS
INTO WESTERN MASS. OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON THE
SOUTH COAST AND FLURRIES MOVING FROM NEW YOUR INTO THE BERKSHIRES.
EXPECT LIGHT PCPN TO MOVE DEEPER INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY
THIS MORNING. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TIMING...BUT HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON THE TREND.

TODAY...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES BRINGS COLD ADVECTION SURFACE
AND ALOFT...DESTABILIZING THE AIRMASS. VERTICAL PROFILES SHOW A
DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH 20-30 MB/HOUR OF
LIFT. LARGE SCALE AND MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT A
SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE EAST COAST OF MASS AND THEN
PIVOTING ACROSS EASTERN MASS AND RI.

ALL OF THIS WOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPING PCPN. THE UPPER TROUGH AND
DESTABILIZATION WOULD FAVOR A CONVECTIVE MODE /SHOWERS/ RATHER
THAN STRATIFORM.

SURFACE TEMPS WOULD SUGGEST RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND AND SNOW
INLAND. TEMPS AT OR ABOVE 950 MB WOULD SUGGEST SNOW ALL AREAS
EXCEPT CAPE COD/ISLANDS. PTYPE AND POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL
HINGE ON THESE TEMPERATURES. WE SPECULATE THAT MANY OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY LEAVE A SLUSHY ACCUMULATION...BUT LESS THAN WHAT WE
WOULD HAVE SEEN 1 1/2 MONTHS AGO. THE BEST CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATIONS WILL COME IN THE HILL COUNTRY SUCH AS THE WORCESTER
HILLS IN MASS AND THE HILLS IN NORTHEAST CT/NORTHWEST RI.
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE BY EVENING...BUT
BECAUSE THESE ARE SHOWERS THE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD NOT BE UNIFORM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...

TONIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.
OFFSHORE LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES WHILE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS MAINTAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR PCPN WHILE
COOLING NIGHTIME TEMPS WOULD FAVOR SNOW OR RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.
THE PIVOTING SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
ANY PCPN OVER OUR AREA DIMINISHING. BASED ON EXPECTED TEMPS AND
LIGHT PCPN THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT WE PROJECT STORM TOTAL OF 1-3
INCHES IN THE HILLS AND AROUND 1 INCH IN THE LOWER TERRAIN.

NORTH WINDS WILL PULL /YET AGAIN/ COLDER THAN NORMAL AIR ACROSS
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN IN THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S. CLOUDS MAY SLOW COOLING A LITTLE...SO WE FAVORED 15
TO 25 DEGREES.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA SURFACE AND ALOFT. THIS
SHOULD BRING SUNNY SKIES MOST AREAS. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING IN EASTERN MASS. TEMPS ALOFT SUGGEST HIGHS
IN THE 30S...BUT WARM ADVECTION LATE IN THE DAY MAY NUDGE VALUES
TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* SPRING LIKE TEMPS MOVE IN FOR TUE-THU
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED

OVERVIEW...
12Z MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A TRANSITION OUT
OF AMPLIFIED TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY THIS WEEKEND
TO A FAST MOVING...ACTIVE STORM TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES TEND
WILL TO MODERATE OVER TIME...GETTING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...WITH FAST W-NW FLOW ALOFT AS H5
RIDGE BUILDS INTO WESTERN CANADA...WILL SEE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
IN THIS FLOW BRINGING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS.
TIMING THE INDIVIDUAL FEATURES IS TOUGH SO THIS LENDS TO BELOW
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

H5 TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST ALONG WITH INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NORTHERN EDGE OF LARGE HIGH PRES PASSING
ACROSS THE MID ATLC AND SE U.S. WILL BRING BRIEF DRYING BUT TEMPS
WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. BEYOND THIS...SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
WILL MOVE ACROSS WITH PERIODS OF SCT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY BEYOND.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM W-E SUN NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT PUSHES IN. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK TO THE 20S EARLY SUN
NIGHT...THEN HOLD STEADY OR RISE A FEW DEGS AS CLOUDS MOVE IN AND
SW WINDS PICK UP. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MIGHT MAKE IT INTO THE E
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND QUICKLY PUSHES
TOWARD THE REGION. MAY SEE SOME WIDELY SCT SNOW SHOWERS AS THE
PRECIP BEGINS MON MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...THEN
WILL CHANGE OVER TO SCT RAIN SHOWERS BY MIDDAY AS TEMPS RECOVER TO
THE 40S. THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY...WITH PRECIP TAPERING
OFF MONDAY EVENING. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S
MON NIGHT.

BRIEF RESPITE IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES ACROSS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL REACH THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S...THOUGH COOLER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WORKS OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
LATER TUE...REACHING THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY
WITH TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...THOUGH TIMING IS FAIRLY GOOD WITH PRECIP
ARRIVING TUE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TUE NIGHT. NOT A WHOLE
LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE SO WILL SEE SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WHICH WILL CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DURING TUE NIGHT.
EXPECT PRECIP TO TAPER OFF ACROSS WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE WED MORNING SO EXPECT PRECIP
TO TAPER OFF FROM W-E DURING THE MORNING. HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS FOR THE REMAINDER OF WED INTO WED NIGHT. MID LEVEL RIDGE
ALSO BUILDS E...SO WILL SEE TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON
WED.

HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THU NIGHT. TIMING OF NEXT
APPROACHING COMPLEX SYSTEM IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION THOUGH AS H5
TROUGH DIGS OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. GFS REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE ECWMF IS SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED. FOR
NOW...INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS FOR THU/THU NIGHT...THEN WENT WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW ON FRI. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE DURING
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

TODAY...
MVFR CIGS MOVING INTO THE SOUTH COAST AND THE BERKSHIRES. VFR IN
BETWEEN. EXPECT A TREND TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...
MIXED MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUE EARLY NIGHT...SIMILAR TO
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY BUT WITH BROADER FAVORING OF SNOW AS
TEMPERATURES COOL. TREND SHIFTS TO VFR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN.

SUNDAY...VFR. IFR MAY LINGER NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS IN THE
MORNING BUT WITH THE TREND TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY BUT DROPPING TO
LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM W-E MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY TUE...THEN
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN DEVELOPING SCT RAIN SHOWERS TUE
AFTERNOON. PRECIP CHANGES TO SNOW SHOWERS TUE NIGHT...THEN BACK TO
RAIN SHOWERS BEFORE TAPERING OFF AROUND MIDDAY WED WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE SUNDAY.

NORTH WINDS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT
THESE WINDS WILL FREQUENTLY GUST TO 25 KNOTS ON MOST MASSACHUSETTS
WATERS AND POSSIBLY RI SOUND. GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE ON THE
OUTER WATERS EAST OF MASS. SEAS WILL BE 5-8 FEET ON ALL EXPOSED
WATERS AND 1 TO 4 FEET ON THE REMAINING WATERS.

WINDS ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS DIMINISH THIS EVENING WHILE WINDS
FARTHER OFFSHORE MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TO FALL BELOW 25
KNOTS. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS WE EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN AT THEIR
DAYTIME LEVELS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
DIMINISH AT THAT TIME. LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED TO ALL WATERS EXCEPT
NARRAGANSETT BAY...AND EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY FOR MOST WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...N-NE WINDS BRIEFLY DIMINISH EARLY SAT NIGHT THEN
INCREASE AGAIN. GUSTS TO 25-30 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE OPEN WATERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS UP TO 6-8 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT N WINDS TO SHIFT TO SW DURING
SUNDAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25-30 KT. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5
FT ON THE OPEN WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO W...CONTINUE TO GUST TO
25-30 KT HIGHEST ON THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5 FT. WINDS
MAY BEGIN TO DIMINISH TUE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...EXPECT N-NW WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
SEAS MAY LINGER AROUND 5 FT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 280720
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
320 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE BUT SPREAD LIGHT
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA WITH DRY WEATHER. ANOTHER BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE LIGHT RAIN
AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRES MAY
APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK WITH MORE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

THROUGH 8 AM...
RADAR SHOWS TWO AREAS OF LIGHT PCPN MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. ONE GLIDES UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH COASTAL
SECTIONS...WHILE THE SECOND SWEEPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE ADIRONDACKS
INTO WESTERN MASS. OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ON THE
SOUTH COAST AND FLURRIES MOVING FROM NEW YOUR INTO THE BERKSHIRES.
EXPECT LIGHT PCPN TO MOVE DEEPER INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY
THIS MORNING. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TIMING...BUT HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON THE TREND.

TODAY...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES BRINGS COLD ADVECTION SURFACE
AND ALOFT...DESTABILIZING THE AIRMASS. VERTICAL PROFILES SHOW A
DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH 20-30 MB/HOUR OF
LIFT. LARGE SCALE AND MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT A
SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE EAST COAST OF MASS AND THEN
PIVOTING ACROSS EASTERN MASS AND RI.

ALL OF THIS WOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPING PCPN. THE UPPER TROUGH AND
DESTABILIZATION WOULD FAVOR A CONVECTIVE MODE /SHOWERS/ RATHER
THAN STRATIFORM.

SURFACE TEMPS WOULD SUGGEST RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND AND SNOW
INLAND. TEMPS AT OR ABOVE 950 MB WOULD SUGGEST SNOW ALL AREAS
EXCEPT CAPE COD/ISLANDS. PTYPE AND POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL
HINGE ON THESE TEMPERATURES. WE SPECULATE THAT MANY OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY LEAVE A SLUSHY ACCUMULATION...BUT LESS THAN WHAT WE
WOULD HAVE SEEN 1 1/2 MONTHS AGO. THE BEST CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATIONS WILL COME IN THE HILL COUNTRY SUCH AS THE WORCESTER
HILLS IN MASS AND THE HILLS IN NORTHEAST CT/NORTHWEST RI.
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE BY EVENING...BUT
BECAUSE THESE ARE SHOWERS THE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD NOT BE UNIFORM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...

TONIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.
OFFSHORE LOW MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES WHILE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS MAINTAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR PCPN WHILE
COOLING NIGHTIME TEMPS WOULD FAVOR SNOW OR RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.
THE PIVOTING SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
ANY PCPN OVER OUR AREA DIMINISHING. BASED ON EXPECTED TEMPS AND
LIGHT PCPN THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT WE PROJECT STORM TOTAL OF 1-3
INCHES IN THE HILLS AND AROUND 1 INCH IN THE LOWER TERRAIN.

NORTH WINDS WILL PULL /YET AGAIN/ COLDER THAN NORMAL AIR ACROSS
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN IN THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S. CLOUDS MAY SLOW COOLING A LITTLE...SO WE FAVORED 15
TO 25 DEGREES.

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA SURFACE AND ALOFT. THIS
SHOULD BRING SUNNY SKIES MOST AREAS. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING IN EASTERN MASS. TEMPS ALOFT SUGGEST HIGHS
IN THE 30S...BUT WARM ADVECTION LATE IN THE DAY MAY NUDGE VALUES
TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* SPRING LIKE TEMPS MOVE IN FOR TUE-THU
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED

OVERVIEW...
12Z MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A TRANSITION OUT
OF AMPLIFIED TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY THIS WEEKEND
TO A FAST MOVING...ACTIVE STORM TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES TEND
WILL TO MODERATE OVER TIME...GETTING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...WITH FAST W-NW FLOW ALOFT AS H5
RIDGE BUILDS INTO WESTERN CANADA...WILL SEE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
IN THIS FLOW BRINGING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS.
TIMING THE INDIVIDUAL FEATURES IS TOUGH SO THIS LENDS TO BELOW
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

H5 TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST ALONG WITH INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NORTHERN EDGE OF LARGE HIGH PRES PASSING
ACROSS THE MID ATLC AND SE U.S. WILL BRING BRIEF DRYING BUT TEMPS
WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. BEYOND THIS...SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
WILL MOVE ACROSS WITH PERIODS OF SCT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY BEYOND.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM W-E SUN NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT PUSHES IN. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK TO THE 20S EARLY SUN
NIGHT...THEN HOLD STEADY OR RISE A FEW DEGS AS CLOUDS MOVE IN AND
SW WINDS PICK UP. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MIGHT MAKE IT INTO THE E
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND QUICKLY PUSHES
TOWARD THE REGION. MAY SEE SOME WIDELY SCT SNOW SHOWERS AS THE
PRECIP BEGINS MON MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...THEN
WILL CHANGE OVER TO SCT RAIN SHOWERS BY MIDDAY AS TEMPS RECOVER TO
THE 40S. THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY...WITH PRECIP TAPERING
OFF MONDAY EVENING. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S
MON NIGHT.

BRIEF RESPITE IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES ACROSS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL REACH THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S...THOUGH COOLER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WORKS OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
LATER TUE...REACHING THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY
WITH TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...THOUGH TIMING IS FAIRLY GOOD WITH PRECIP
ARRIVING TUE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TUE NIGHT. NOT A WHOLE
LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE SO WILL SEE SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WHICH WILL CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DURING TUE NIGHT.
EXPECT PRECIP TO TAPER OFF ACROSS WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE WED MORNING SO EXPECT PRECIP
TO TAPER OFF FROM W-E DURING THE MORNING. HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS FOR THE REMAINDER OF WED INTO WED NIGHT. MID LEVEL RIDGE
ALSO BUILDS E...SO WILL SEE TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON
WED.

HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THU NIGHT. TIMING OF NEXT
APPROACHING COMPLEX SYSTEM IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION THOUGH AS H5
TROUGH DIGS OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. GFS REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE ECWMF IS SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED. FOR
NOW...INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS FOR THU/THU NIGHT...THEN WENT WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW ON FRI. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE DURING
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

TODAY...
MVFR CIGS MOVING INTO THE SOUTH COAST AND THE BERKSHIRES. VFR IN
BETWEEN. EXPECT A TREND TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...
MIXED MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUE EARLY NIGHT...SIMILAR TO
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY BUT WITH BROADER FAVORING OF SNOW AS
TEMPERATURES COOL. TREND SHIFTS TO VFR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN.

SUNDAY...VFR. IFR MAY LINGER NEAR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS IN THE
MORNING BUT WITH THE TREND TO VFR BY AFTERNOON.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY BUT DROPPING TO
LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM W-E MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY TUE...THEN
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN DEVELOPING SCT RAIN SHOWERS TUE
AFTERNOON. PRECIP CHANGES TO SNOW SHOWERS TUE NIGHT...THEN BACK TO
RAIN SHOWERS BEFORE TAPERING OFF AROUND MIDDAY WED WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE SUNDAY.

NORTH WINDS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT
THESE WINDS WILL FREQUENTLY GUST TO 25 KNOTS ON MOST MASSACHUSETTS
WATERS AND POSSIBLY RI SOUND. GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE ON THE
OUTER WATERS EAST OF MASS. SEAS WILL BE 5-8 FEET ON ALL EXPOSED
WATERS AND 1 TO 4 FEET ON THE REMAINING WATERS.

WINDS ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS DIMINISH THIS EVENING WHILE WINDS
FARTHER OFFSHORE MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TO FALL BELOW 25
KNOTS. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS WE EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN AT THEIR
DAYTIME LEVELS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
DIMINISH AT THAT TIME. LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED TO ALL WATERS EXCEPT
NARRAGANSETT BAY...AND EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY FOR MOST WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...N-NE WINDS BRIEFLY DIMINISH EARLY SAT NIGHT THEN
INCREASE AGAIN. GUSTS TO 25-30 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE OPEN WATERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS UP TO 6-8 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT N WINDS TO SHIFT TO SW DURING
SUNDAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25-30 KT. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5
FT ON THE OPEN WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO W...CONTINUE TO GUST TO
25-30 KT HIGHEST ON THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5 FT. WINDS
MAY BEGIN TO DIMINISH TUE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...EXPECT N-NW WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
SEAS MAY LINGER AROUND 5 FT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 280203
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1003 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PUSH SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRES MAY APPROACH LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH MORE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

RADAR SCREEN IS MOSTLY CLEAR. JUST SOME LIGHT ECHOES OVER SOUTHERN
RI AND ANOTHER AREA STREAMING NORTHEAST ACROSS MARTHAS VINEYARD
AND NANTUCKET. ALSO SOME LIGHT ECHOES OVER THE CATSKILLS AND
ADIRONDACKS.

WITH THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT ECHOES AT 10 PM...AND BASED ON 12Z
GUIDANCE...THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME FOR PCPN DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
LATE TONIGHT. THE 00Z HRRR SUGGESTS ROUGHLY 08Z TO 12Z WITH FOCUS
ON RI AND EASTERN CT WITH EXPANSION INTO MASS FROM WORCESTER EAST
TO BOSTON AND TAUNTON BY 12Z. THE FAVORED AREA WILL BE THE CENTRAL
HILLS FROM WORCESTER TO NORTHEAST CT.

BASED ON THIS WE HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF POPS IN SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT OVERALL AND MOST PLACES AFTER 3 AM.
TEMPERATURES MAY BE INITIALLY TOO WARM FOR MUCH ACCUMULATION.
OVERALL WE ARE LOOKING AT AN INCH OR LESS FROM SNOW SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST DURING THIS TIME.
THIS BRINGS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT...FURTHER DESTABILIZING THE
AIRMASS.

TEMPERATURES MARGINALLY FAVOR MAINLY SNOW...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRUCIAL TO SNOW
ACCUMULATION. COULD EVEN SEE A TRANSITION TO RAIN WITH JUST A
LITTLE UPWARD NUDGE. MODEL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED
WITH THIS LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE. THINKING 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IS
MORE THAN JUST A POSSIBILITY. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS EXCEED THAT
AMOUNT...PARTICULARLY IF THE BAND ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS
CENTRAL MA...NORTHEAST CT AND NORTHWEST RI. THESE ARE ALL
LOCATIONS WITH HIGHER TERRAIN. CONFIDENCE IN THE STORM TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SATURDAY IS MODERATE AT BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF DURING SATURDAY NIGHT
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* SPRING LIKE TEMPS MOVE IN FOR TUE-THU
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED

OVERVIEW...
12Z MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A TRANSITION OUT
OF AMPLIFIED TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY THIS WEEKEND
TO A FAST MOVING...ACTIVE STORM TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES TEND
WILL TO MODERATE OVER TIME...GETTING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...WITH FAST W-NW FLOW ALOFT AS H5
RIDGE BUILDS INTO WESTERN CANADA...WILL SEE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
IN THIS FLOW BRINGING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS.
TIMING THE INDIVIDUAL FEATURES IS TOUGH SO THIS LENDS TO BELOW
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

H5 TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST ALONG WITH INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NORTHERN EDGE OF LARGE HIGH PRES PASSING
ACROSS THE MID ATLC AND SE U.S. WILL BRING BRIEF DRYING BUT TEMPS
WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. BEYOND THIS...SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
WILL MOVE ACROSS WITH PERIODS OF SCT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY BEYOND.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT INVERTED TROUGH SITTING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS
TO SLOWLY PUSH SE DURING THE NIGHT AS OFFSHORE LOW PRES CONTINUES
TO MOVE AWAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN
SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM NW-SE THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO.

AS N-NE WIND INCREASING TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE E MA COAST SAT NIGHT ALONG WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY
FROM THE TROUGH...SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE SNOW THERE COULD
BE ENHANCED BY OCEAN EFFECT AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN OVER THE
RELATIVELY MILDER WATERS. THE 12Z NAM /AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE
GFS/ BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES WHICH WOULD SIGNAL
OCEAN EFFECT SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...OCEAN WATERS ARE AT THEIR
COLDEST LEVELS OF THE YEAR AND...THANKS TO ARCTIC AIR OF THE LAST
COUPLE OF MONTHS...SEA SURFACE TEMPS ARE RATHER LOW MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S IN CAPE COD BAY AND ALONG THE PLYMOUTH COUNTY
COASTLINE... RANGING TO THE LOWER 40S JUST OFF THE OUTER CAPE AND
NANTUCKET. WHEN FACTORING THIS INTO THE LAKE EFFECT TOOL ON
BUFKIT...THIS GIVES ONLY MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR THE OCEAN EFFECT.
NOT TOTALLY RULING OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF OCEAN EFFECT BANDS
SETTING UP ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE...BUT FURTHER W MAY HAVE A TOUGH
TIME. WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE THOUGH.

OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE UPPER TEENS WELL INLAND TO 25
TO 30 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WILL SEE DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRES RIDGE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES ACROSS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM W-E SUN
NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT PUSHES IN. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
REMAIN CHILLY...ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. TEMPS WILL
FALL BACK TO THE 20S EARLY SUN NIGHT...THEN HOLD STEADY OR RISE A
FEW DEGS AS CLOUDS MOVE IN AND SW WINDS PICK UP. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS MIGHT MAKE IT INTO THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES TOWARD
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND QUICKLY PUSHES
TOWARD THE REGION. MAY SEE SOME WIDELY SCT SNOW SHOWERS AS THE
PRECIP BEGINS MON MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...THEN
WILL CHANGE OVER TO SCT RAIN SHOWERS BY MIDDAY AS TEMPS RECOVER TO
THE 40S. THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY...WITH PRECIP TAPERING
OFF MONDAY EVENING. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S
MON NIGHT.

BRIEF RESPITE IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES ACROSS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL REACH THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S...THOUGH COOLER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WORKS OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
LATER TUE...REACHING THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY
WITH TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...THOUGH TIMING IS FAIRLY GOOD WITH PRECIP
ARRIVING TUE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TUE NIGHT. NOT A WHOLE
LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE SO WILL SEE SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WHICH WILL CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DURING TUE NIGHT.
EXPECT PRECIP TO TAPER OFF ACROSS WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE WED MORNING SO EXPECT PRECIP
TO TAPER OFF FROM W-E DURING THE MORNING. HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS FOR THE REMAINDER OF WED INTO WED NIGHT. MID LEVEL RIDGE
ALSO BUILDS E...SO WILL SEE TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON
WED.

HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THU NIGHT. TIMING OF NEXT
APPROACHING COMPLEX SYSTEM IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION THOUGH AS H5
TROUGH DIGS OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. GFS REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE ECWMF IS SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED. FOR
NOW...INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS FOR THU/THU NIGHT...THEN WENT WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW ON FRI. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE DURING
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR TO START WITH SPOTTY MVFR-IFR CIGS ACROSS
RI/SE MA. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR-IFR FROM S-N 06-08Z. POCKETS OF
IFR-LIFR CIGS/MVFR-IFR VSBYS DEVELOP AROUND OR AFTER 08Z...LOWEST
ACROSS E AND CENTRAL MA/RI/NORTHEAST CT. VSBYS WILL LOWER AS
-SHSN BREAKS OUT OVERNIGHT WITH INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPMENT AFTER
3 AM.

SATURDAY...EXPECT MVFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS AND
IFR CIGS ACROSS E MA INTO RI DURING THE DAY. MVFR-IFR CIGS ALSO
PREVALENT...LOWEST ACROSS E MA/RI. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO
THE 30S WHICH SHOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN IN PLACES ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE THE INTERIOR REMAINS SNOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MODERATE
CONFIDENCE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. WILL SEE
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS...BEST CHANCE ACROSS
RI/E MA. MAY SEE BRIEF LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET IN ANY SNOW BANDS THAT MAY FORM ALONG THE COAST. SHOULD
SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM NW-SE FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD...THOUGH
MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER ON THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...VFR DROPPING TO LOCAL
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM W-E MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY TUE...THEN
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN DEVELOPING SCT RAIN SHOWERS TUE
AFTERNOON. PRECIP CHANGES TO SNOW SHOWERS TUE NIGHT...THEN BACK TO
RAIN SHOWERS BEFORE TAPERING OFF AROUND MIDDAY WED WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NORTH WINDS PICK UP AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND A DISTURBANCE
PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECTING WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 5-7 FEET. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON CAPE COD BAY AND
NANTUCKET SOUND AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER MA AND RI COASTAL
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...N-NE WINDS BRIEFLY DIMINISH EARLY SAT NIGHT THEN
INCREASE AGAIN. GUSTS TO 25-30 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE OPEN WATERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS UP TO 6-8 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT N WINDS TO SHIFT TO SW DURING
SUNDAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25-30 KT. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5
FT ON THE OPEN WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO W...CONTINUE TO GUST TO
25-30 KT HIGHEST ON THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5 FT. WINDS
MAY BEGIN TO DIMINISH TUE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...EXPECT N-NW WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
SEAS MAY LINGER AROUND 5 FT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 272359
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
759 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PUSH SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRES MAY APPROACH LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH MORE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

740 PM UPDATE...
ISOLD LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BRIEFLY FALLING ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AS SEEN ON KBOX 88D RADAR IMAGERY. APPEARS
MOST OF THIS IS ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS UP TO THE CANAL
AND WILL SHIFT NE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 23Z SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWING WEAK PRES GRADIENT IN PLACE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
RADAR TRENDS FOR SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT OF INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

TEMPS/DEWPTS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...UPDATED TO BRING
CONDITIONS CURRENT. ALSO BROUGHT REMAINDER OF NEAR TERM FORECAST
CURRENT AS WELL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THERE REMAINS ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LIFT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH ZONE...SO WE DO EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP. IT ALL THEN
BECOMES A MATTER OF BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES...AND HOW QUICKLY
THEY CAN CAN GET LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW ALL THE WAY TO THE
GROUND. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY HAPPEN FIRST ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA.

27/12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A BANDING SIGNATURE
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
DETAIL DIFFERENCES YET TO BE RESOLVED. THESE DIFFERENCES CONCERN
THE LOCATION AND DURATION OF THE BANDING SIGNATURE. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE... FAVORS A
POSITION BETWEEN WORCESTER COUNTY AND THE WESTERN SUBURBS OF
BOSTON. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE LATEST RUNS OF THE
HRRR...BRING THIS BAND AS FAR WEST AS THE CT RIVER VALLEY. AT THIS
POINT...THINKING THE BANDING MOST LIKELY STAYS EAST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY...WITH PREDOMINANTLY NORTH WINDS PREVENTING MUCH OF A
WESTWARD PUSH. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
12-18 HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUDY
SKIES. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL SPEED UP THIS PROCESS LATER
TONIGHT AS WET-BULBING OCCURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST DURING THIS TIME.
THIS BRINGS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT...FURTHER DESTABILIZING THE
AIRMASS.

TEMPERATURES MARGINALLY FAVOR MAINLY SNOW...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRUCIAL TO SNOW
ACCUMULATION. COULD EVEN SEE A TRANSITION TO RAIN WITH JUST A
LITTLE UPWARD NUDGE. MODEL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED
WITH THIS LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE. THINKING 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IS
MORE THAN JUST A POSSIBILITY. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS EXCEED THAT
AMOUNT...PARTICULARLY IF THE BAND ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS
CENTRAL MA...NORTHEAST CT AND NORTHWEST RI. THESE ARE ALL
LOCATIONS WITH HIGHER TERRAIN. CONFIDENCE IN THE STORM TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SATURDAY IS MODERATE AT BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF DURING SATURDAY NIGHT
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* SPRING LIKE TEMPS MOVE IN FOR TUE-THU
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED

OVERVIEW...
12Z MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A TRANSITION OUT
OF AMPLIFIED TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY THIS WEEKEND
TO A FAST MOVING...ACTIVE STORM TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES TEND
WILL TO MODERATE OVER TIME...GETTING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...WITH FAST W-NW FLOW ALOFT AS H5
RIDGE BUILDS INTO WESTERN CANADA...WILL SEE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
IN THIS FLOW BRINGING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS.
TIMING THE INDIVIDUAL FEATURES IS TOUGH SO THIS LENDS TO BELOW
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

H5 TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST ALONG WITH INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NORTHERN EDGE OF LARGE HIGH PRES PASSING
ACROSS THE MID ATLC AND SE U.S. WILL BRING BRIEF DRYING BUT TEMPS
WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. BEYOND THIS...SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
WILL MOVE ACROSS WITH PERIODS OF SCT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY BEYOND.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT INVERTED TROUGH SITTING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS
TO SLOWLY PUSH SE DURING THE NIGHT AS OFFSHORE LOW PRES CONTINUES
TO MOVE AWAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN
SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM NW-SE THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO.

AS N-NE WIND INCREASING TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE E MA COAST SAT NIGHT ALONG WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY
FROM THE TROUGH...SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE SNOW THERE COULD
BE ENHANCED BY OCEAN EFFECT AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN OVER THE
RELATIVELY MILDER WATERS. THE 12Z NAM /AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE
GFS/ BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES WHICH WOULD SIGNAL
OCEAN EFFECT SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...OCEAN WATERS ARE AT THEIR
COLDEST LEVELS OF THE YEAR AND...THANKS TO ARCTIC AIR OF THE LAST
COUPLE OF MONTHS...SEA SURFACE TEMPS ARE RATHER LOW MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S IN CAPE COD BAY AND ALONG THE PLYMOUTH COUNTY
COASTLINE... RANGING TO THE LOWER 40S JUST OFF THE OUTER CAPE AND
NANTUCKET. WHEN FACTORING THIS INTO THE LAKE EFFECT TOOL ON
BUFKIT...THIS GIVES ONLY MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR THE OCEAN EFFECT.
NOT TOTALLY RULING OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF OCEAN EFFECT BANDS
SETTING UP ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE...BUT FURTHER W MAY HAVE A TOUGH
TIME. WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE THOUGH.

OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE UPPER TEENS WELL INLAND TO 25
TO 30 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WILL SEE DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRES RIDGE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES ACROSS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM W-E SUN
NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT PUSHES IN. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
REMAIN CHILLY...ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. TEMPS WILL
FALL BACK TO THE 20S EARLY SUN NIGHT...THEN HOLD STEADY OR RISE A
FEW DEGS AS CLOUDS MOVE IN AND SW WINDS PICK UP. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS MIGHT MAKE IT INTO THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES TOWARD
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND QUICKLY PUSHES
TOWARD THE REGION. MAY SEE SOME WIDELY SCT SNOW SHOWERS AS THE
PRECIP BEGINS MON MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...THEN
WILL CHANGE OVER TO SCT RAIN SHOWERS BY MIDDAY AS TEMPS RECOVER TO
THE 40S. THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY...WITH PRECIP TAPERING
OFF MONDAY EVENING. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S
MON NIGHT.

BRIEF RESPITE IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES ACROSS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL REACH THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S...THOUGH COOLER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WORKS OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
LATER TUE...REACHING THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY
WITH TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...THOUGH TIMING IS FAIRLY GOOD WITH PRECIP
ARRIVING TUE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TUE NIGHT. NOT A WHOLE
LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE SO WILL SEE SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WHICH WILL CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DURING TUE NIGHT.
EXPECT PRECIP TO TAPER OFF ACROSS WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE WED MORNING SO EXPECT PRECIP
TO TAPER OFF FROM W-E DURING THE MORNING. HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS FOR THE REMAINDER OF WED INTO WED NIGHT. MID LEVEL RIDGE
ALSO BUILDS E...SO WILL SEE TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON
WED.

HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THU NIGHT. TIMING OF NEXT
APPROACHING COMPLEX SYSTEM IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION THOUGH AS H5
TROUGH DIGS OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. GFS REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE ECWMF IS SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED. FOR
NOW...INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS FOR THU/THU NIGHT...THEN WENT WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW ON FRI. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE DURING
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR TO START WITH SPOTTY MVFR-IFR CIGS ACROSS
RI/SE MA. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR-IFR FROM S-N THROUGH 04Z-06Z.
POCKETS OF IFR-LIFR CIGS/MVFR-IFR VSBYS DEVELOP AROUND OR AFTER
06Z...LOWEST ACROSS E AND CENTRAL MA/RI. VSBYS WILL LOWER AS
-SHSN BREAKS OUT OVERNIGHT WITH INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPMENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY...EXPECT MVFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS AND
IFR CIGS ACROSS E MA INTO RI DURING THE DAY. MVFR-IFR CIGS ALSO
PREVALENT...LOWEST ACROSS E MA/RI. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO
THE 30S WHICH SHOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN IN PLACES ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE THE INTERIOR REMAINS SNOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MODERATE
CONFIDENCE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. WILL SEE
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS...BEST CHANCE ACROSS
RI/E MA. MAY SEE BRIEF LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET IN ANY SNOW BANDS THAT MAY FORM ALONG THE COAST. SHOULD
SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM NW-SE FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD...THOUGH
MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER ON THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...VFR DROPPING TO LOCAL
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM W-E MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY TUE...THEN
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN DEVELOPING SCT RAIN SHOWERS TUE
AFTERNOON. PRECIP CHANGES TO SNOW SHOWERS TUE NIGHT...THEN BACK TO
RAIN SHOWERS BEFORE TAPERING OFF AROUND MIDDAY WED WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NORTH WINDS PICK UP AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND A DISTURBANCE
PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECTING WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 5-7 FEET. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON CAPE COD BAY AND
NANTUCKET SOUND AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER MA AND RI COASTAL
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...N-NE WINDS BRIEFLY DIMINISH EARLY SAT NIGHT THEN
INCREASE AGAIN. GUSTS TO 25-30 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE OPEN WATERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS UP TO 6-8 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT N WINDS TO SHIFT TO SW DURING
SUNDAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25-30 KT. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5
FT ON THE OPEN WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO W...CONTINUE TO GUST TO
25-30 KT HIGHEST ON THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5 FT. WINDS
MAY BEGIN TO DIMINISH TUE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...EXPECT N-NW WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
SEAS MAY LINGER AROUND 5 FT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...BELK/EVT
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 272359
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
759 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PUSH SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRES MAY APPROACH LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH MORE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

740 PM UPDATE...
ISOLD LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BRIEFLY FALLING ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AS SEEN ON KBOX 88D RADAR IMAGERY. APPEARS
MOST OF THIS IS ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS UP TO THE CANAL
AND WILL SHIFT NE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 23Z SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWING WEAK PRES GRADIENT IN PLACE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
RADAR TRENDS FOR SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT OF INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

TEMPS/DEWPTS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...UPDATED TO BRING
CONDITIONS CURRENT. ALSO BROUGHT REMAINDER OF NEAR TERM FORECAST
CURRENT AS WELL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THERE REMAINS ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LIFT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH ZONE...SO WE DO EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP. IT ALL THEN
BECOMES A MATTER OF BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES...AND HOW QUICKLY
THEY CAN CAN GET LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW ALL THE WAY TO THE
GROUND. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY HAPPEN FIRST ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA.

27/12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A BANDING SIGNATURE
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
DETAIL DIFFERENCES YET TO BE RESOLVED. THESE DIFFERENCES CONCERN
THE LOCATION AND DURATION OF THE BANDING SIGNATURE. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE... FAVORS A
POSITION BETWEEN WORCESTER COUNTY AND THE WESTERN SUBURBS OF
BOSTON. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE LATEST RUNS OF THE
HRRR...BRING THIS BAND AS FAR WEST AS THE CT RIVER VALLEY. AT THIS
POINT...THINKING THE BANDING MOST LIKELY STAYS EAST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY...WITH PREDOMINANTLY NORTH WINDS PREVENTING MUCH OF A
WESTWARD PUSH. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
12-18 HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUDY
SKIES. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL SPEED UP THIS PROCESS LATER
TONIGHT AS WET-BULBING OCCURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST DURING THIS TIME.
THIS BRINGS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT...FURTHER DESTABILIZING THE
AIRMASS.

TEMPERATURES MARGINALLY FAVOR MAINLY SNOW...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRUCIAL TO SNOW
ACCUMULATION. COULD EVEN SEE A TRANSITION TO RAIN WITH JUST A
LITTLE UPWARD NUDGE. MODEL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED
WITH THIS LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE. THINKING 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IS
MORE THAN JUST A POSSIBILITY. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS EXCEED THAT
AMOUNT...PARTICULARLY IF THE BAND ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS
CENTRAL MA...NORTHEAST CT AND NORTHWEST RI. THESE ARE ALL
LOCATIONS WITH HIGHER TERRAIN. CONFIDENCE IN THE STORM TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SATURDAY IS MODERATE AT BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF DURING SATURDAY NIGHT
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* SPRING LIKE TEMPS MOVE IN FOR TUE-THU
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED

OVERVIEW...
12Z MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A TRANSITION OUT
OF AMPLIFIED TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY THIS WEEKEND
TO A FAST MOVING...ACTIVE STORM TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES TEND
WILL TO MODERATE OVER TIME...GETTING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...WITH FAST W-NW FLOW ALOFT AS H5
RIDGE BUILDS INTO WESTERN CANADA...WILL SEE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
IN THIS FLOW BRINGING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS.
TIMING THE INDIVIDUAL FEATURES IS TOUGH SO THIS LENDS TO BELOW
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

H5 TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST ALONG WITH INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NORTHERN EDGE OF LARGE HIGH PRES PASSING
ACROSS THE MID ATLC AND SE U.S. WILL BRING BRIEF DRYING BUT TEMPS
WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. BEYOND THIS...SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
WILL MOVE ACROSS WITH PERIODS OF SCT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY BEYOND.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT INVERTED TROUGH SITTING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS
TO SLOWLY PUSH SE DURING THE NIGHT AS OFFSHORE LOW PRES CONTINUES
TO MOVE AWAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN
SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM NW-SE THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO.

AS N-NE WIND INCREASING TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE E MA COAST SAT NIGHT ALONG WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY
FROM THE TROUGH...SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE SNOW THERE COULD
BE ENHANCED BY OCEAN EFFECT AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN OVER THE
RELATIVELY MILDER WATERS. THE 12Z NAM /AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE
GFS/ BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES WHICH WOULD SIGNAL
OCEAN EFFECT SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...OCEAN WATERS ARE AT THEIR
COLDEST LEVELS OF THE YEAR AND...THANKS TO ARCTIC AIR OF THE LAST
COUPLE OF MONTHS...SEA SURFACE TEMPS ARE RATHER LOW MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S IN CAPE COD BAY AND ALONG THE PLYMOUTH COUNTY
COASTLINE... RANGING TO THE LOWER 40S JUST OFF THE OUTER CAPE AND
NANTUCKET. WHEN FACTORING THIS INTO THE LAKE EFFECT TOOL ON
BUFKIT...THIS GIVES ONLY MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR THE OCEAN EFFECT.
NOT TOTALLY RULING OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF OCEAN EFFECT BANDS
SETTING UP ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE...BUT FURTHER W MAY HAVE A TOUGH
TIME. WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE THOUGH.

OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE UPPER TEENS WELL INLAND TO 25
TO 30 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WILL SEE DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRES RIDGE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES ACROSS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM W-E SUN
NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT PUSHES IN. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
REMAIN CHILLY...ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. TEMPS WILL
FALL BACK TO THE 20S EARLY SUN NIGHT...THEN HOLD STEADY OR RISE A
FEW DEGS AS CLOUDS MOVE IN AND SW WINDS PICK UP. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS MIGHT MAKE IT INTO THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES TOWARD
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND QUICKLY PUSHES
TOWARD THE REGION. MAY SEE SOME WIDELY SCT SNOW SHOWERS AS THE
PRECIP BEGINS MON MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...THEN
WILL CHANGE OVER TO SCT RAIN SHOWERS BY MIDDAY AS TEMPS RECOVER TO
THE 40S. THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY...WITH PRECIP TAPERING
OFF MONDAY EVENING. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S
MON NIGHT.

BRIEF RESPITE IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES ACROSS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL REACH THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S...THOUGH COOLER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WORKS OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
LATER TUE...REACHING THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY
WITH TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...THOUGH TIMING IS FAIRLY GOOD WITH PRECIP
ARRIVING TUE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TUE NIGHT. NOT A WHOLE
LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE SO WILL SEE SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WHICH WILL CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DURING TUE NIGHT.
EXPECT PRECIP TO TAPER OFF ACROSS WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE WED MORNING SO EXPECT PRECIP
TO TAPER OFF FROM W-E DURING THE MORNING. HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS FOR THE REMAINDER OF WED INTO WED NIGHT. MID LEVEL RIDGE
ALSO BUILDS E...SO WILL SEE TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON
WED.

HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THU NIGHT. TIMING OF NEXT
APPROACHING COMPLEX SYSTEM IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION THOUGH AS H5
TROUGH DIGS OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. GFS REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE ECWMF IS SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED. FOR
NOW...INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS FOR THU/THU NIGHT...THEN WENT WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW ON FRI. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE DURING
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR TO START WITH SPOTTY MVFR-IFR CIGS ACROSS
RI/SE MA. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR-IFR FROM S-N THROUGH 04Z-06Z.
POCKETS OF IFR-LIFR CIGS/MVFR-IFR VSBYS DEVELOP AROUND OR AFTER
06Z...LOWEST ACROSS E AND CENTRAL MA/RI. VSBYS WILL LOWER AS
-SHSN BREAKS OUT OVERNIGHT WITH INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPMENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY...EXPECT MVFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS AND
IFR CIGS ACROSS E MA INTO RI DURING THE DAY. MVFR-IFR CIGS ALSO
PREVALENT...LOWEST ACROSS E MA/RI. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO
THE 30S WHICH SHOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN IN PLACES ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE THE INTERIOR REMAINS SNOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MODERATE
CONFIDENCE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. WILL SEE
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS...BEST CHANCE ACROSS
RI/E MA. MAY SEE BRIEF LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET IN ANY SNOW BANDS THAT MAY FORM ALONG THE COAST. SHOULD
SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM NW-SE FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD...THOUGH
MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER ON THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...VFR DROPPING TO LOCAL
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM W-E MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY TUE...THEN
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN DEVELOPING SCT RAIN SHOWERS TUE
AFTERNOON. PRECIP CHANGES TO SNOW SHOWERS TUE NIGHT...THEN BACK TO
RAIN SHOWERS BEFORE TAPERING OFF AROUND MIDDAY WED WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NORTH WINDS PICK UP AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND A DISTURBANCE
PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECTING WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 5-7 FEET. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON CAPE COD BAY AND
NANTUCKET SOUND AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER MA AND RI COASTAL
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...N-NE WINDS BRIEFLY DIMINISH EARLY SAT NIGHT THEN
INCREASE AGAIN. GUSTS TO 25-30 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE OPEN WATERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS UP TO 6-8 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT N WINDS TO SHIFT TO SW DURING
SUNDAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25-30 KT. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5
FT ON THE OPEN WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO W...CONTINUE TO GUST TO
25-30 KT HIGHEST ON THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5 FT. WINDS
MAY BEGIN TO DIMINISH TUE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...EXPECT N-NW WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
SEAS MAY LINGER AROUND 5 FT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...BELK/EVT
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 272359
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
759 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PUSH SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRES MAY APPROACH LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH MORE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

740 PM UPDATE...
ISOLD LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BRIEFLY FALLING ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AS SEEN ON KBOX 88D RADAR IMAGERY. APPEARS
MOST OF THIS IS ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS UP TO THE CANAL
AND WILL SHIFT NE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 23Z SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWING WEAK PRES GRADIENT IN PLACE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
RADAR TRENDS FOR SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT OF INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

TEMPS/DEWPTS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...UPDATED TO BRING
CONDITIONS CURRENT. ALSO BROUGHT REMAINDER OF NEAR TERM FORECAST
CURRENT AS WELL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THERE REMAINS ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LIFT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH ZONE...SO WE DO EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP. IT ALL THEN
BECOMES A MATTER OF BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES...AND HOW QUICKLY
THEY CAN CAN GET LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW ALL THE WAY TO THE
GROUND. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY HAPPEN FIRST ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA.

27/12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A BANDING SIGNATURE
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
DETAIL DIFFERENCES YET TO BE RESOLVED. THESE DIFFERENCES CONCERN
THE LOCATION AND DURATION OF THE BANDING SIGNATURE. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE... FAVORS A
POSITION BETWEEN WORCESTER COUNTY AND THE WESTERN SUBURBS OF
BOSTON. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE LATEST RUNS OF THE
HRRR...BRING THIS BAND AS FAR WEST AS THE CT RIVER VALLEY. AT THIS
POINT...THINKING THE BANDING MOST LIKELY STAYS EAST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY...WITH PREDOMINANTLY NORTH WINDS PREVENTING MUCH OF A
WESTWARD PUSH. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
12-18 HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUDY
SKIES. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL SPEED UP THIS PROCESS LATER
TONIGHT AS WET-BULBING OCCURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST DURING THIS TIME.
THIS BRINGS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT...FURTHER DESTABILIZING THE
AIRMASS.

TEMPERATURES MARGINALLY FAVOR MAINLY SNOW...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRUCIAL TO SNOW
ACCUMULATION. COULD EVEN SEE A TRANSITION TO RAIN WITH JUST A
LITTLE UPWARD NUDGE. MODEL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED
WITH THIS LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE. THINKING 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IS
MORE THAN JUST A POSSIBILITY. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS EXCEED THAT
AMOUNT...PARTICULARLY IF THE BAND ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS
CENTRAL MA...NORTHEAST CT AND NORTHWEST RI. THESE ARE ALL
LOCATIONS WITH HIGHER TERRAIN. CONFIDENCE IN THE STORM TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SATURDAY IS MODERATE AT BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF DURING SATURDAY NIGHT
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* SPRING LIKE TEMPS MOVE IN FOR TUE-THU
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED

OVERVIEW...
12Z MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A TRANSITION OUT
OF AMPLIFIED TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY THIS WEEKEND
TO A FAST MOVING...ACTIVE STORM TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES TEND
WILL TO MODERATE OVER TIME...GETTING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...WITH FAST W-NW FLOW ALOFT AS H5
RIDGE BUILDS INTO WESTERN CANADA...WILL SEE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
IN THIS FLOW BRINGING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS.
TIMING THE INDIVIDUAL FEATURES IS TOUGH SO THIS LENDS TO BELOW
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

H5 TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST ALONG WITH INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NORTHERN EDGE OF LARGE HIGH PRES PASSING
ACROSS THE MID ATLC AND SE U.S. WILL BRING BRIEF DRYING BUT TEMPS
WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. BEYOND THIS...SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
WILL MOVE ACROSS WITH PERIODS OF SCT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY BEYOND.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT INVERTED TROUGH SITTING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS
TO SLOWLY PUSH SE DURING THE NIGHT AS OFFSHORE LOW PRES CONTINUES
TO MOVE AWAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN
SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM NW-SE THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO.

AS N-NE WIND INCREASING TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE E MA COAST SAT NIGHT ALONG WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY
FROM THE TROUGH...SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE SNOW THERE COULD
BE ENHANCED BY OCEAN EFFECT AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN OVER THE
RELATIVELY MILDER WATERS. THE 12Z NAM /AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE
GFS/ BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES WHICH WOULD SIGNAL
OCEAN EFFECT SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...OCEAN WATERS ARE AT THEIR
COLDEST LEVELS OF THE YEAR AND...THANKS TO ARCTIC AIR OF THE LAST
COUPLE OF MONTHS...SEA SURFACE TEMPS ARE RATHER LOW MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S IN CAPE COD BAY AND ALONG THE PLYMOUTH COUNTY
COASTLINE... RANGING TO THE LOWER 40S JUST OFF THE OUTER CAPE AND
NANTUCKET. WHEN FACTORING THIS INTO THE LAKE EFFECT TOOL ON
BUFKIT...THIS GIVES ONLY MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR THE OCEAN EFFECT.
NOT TOTALLY RULING OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF OCEAN EFFECT BANDS
SETTING UP ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE...BUT FURTHER W MAY HAVE A TOUGH
TIME. WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE THOUGH.

OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE UPPER TEENS WELL INLAND TO 25
TO 30 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WILL SEE DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRES RIDGE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES ACROSS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM W-E SUN
NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT PUSHES IN. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
REMAIN CHILLY...ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. TEMPS WILL
FALL BACK TO THE 20S EARLY SUN NIGHT...THEN HOLD STEADY OR RISE A
FEW DEGS AS CLOUDS MOVE IN AND SW WINDS PICK UP. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS MIGHT MAKE IT INTO THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES TOWARD
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND QUICKLY PUSHES
TOWARD THE REGION. MAY SEE SOME WIDELY SCT SNOW SHOWERS AS THE
PRECIP BEGINS MON MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...THEN
WILL CHANGE OVER TO SCT RAIN SHOWERS BY MIDDAY AS TEMPS RECOVER TO
THE 40S. THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY...WITH PRECIP TAPERING
OFF MONDAY EVENING. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S
MON NIGHT.

BRIEF RESPITE IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES ACROSS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL REACH THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S...THOUGH COOLER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WORKS OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
LATER TUE...REACHING THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY
WITH TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...THOUGH TIMING IS FAIRLY GOOD WITH PRECIP
ARRIVING TUE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TUE NIGHT. NOT A WHOLE
LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE SO WILL SEE SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WHICH WILL CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DURING TUE NIGHT.
EXPECT PRECIP TO TAPER OFF ACROSS WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE WED MORNING SO EXPECT PRECIP
TO TAPER OFF FROM W-E DURING THE MORNING. HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS FOR THE REMAINDER OF WED INTO WED NIGHT. MID LEVEL RIDGE
ALSO BUILDS E...SO WILL SEE TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON
WED.

HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THU NIGHT. TIMING OF NEXT
APPROACHING COMPLEX SYSTEM IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION THOUGH AS H5
TROUGH DIGS OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. GFS REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE ECWMF IS SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED. FOR
NOW...INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS FOR THU/THU NIGHT...THEN WENT WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW ON FRI. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE DURING
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR TO START WITH SPOTTY MVFR-IFR CIGS ACROSS
RI/SE MA. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR-IFR FROM S-N THROUGH 04Z-06Z.
POCKETS OF IFR-LIFR CIGS/MVFR-IFR VSBYS DEVELOP AROUND OR AFTER
06Z...LOWEST ACROSS E AND CENTRAL MA/RI. VSBYS WILL LOWER AS
-SHSN BREAKS OUT OVERNIGHT WITH INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPMENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY...EXPECT MVFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS AND
IFR CIGS ACROSS E MA INTO RI DURING THE DAY. MVFR-IFR CIGS ALSO
PREVALENT...LOWEST ACROSS E MA/RI. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO
THE 30S WHICH SHOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN IN PLACES ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE THE INTERIOR REMAINS SNOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MODERATE
CONFIDENCE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. WILL SEE
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS...BEST CHANCE ACROSS
RI/E MA. MAY SEE BRIEF LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET IN ANY SNOW BANDS THAT MAY FORM ALONG THE COAST. SHOULD
SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM NW-SE FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD...THOUGH
MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER ON THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...VFR DROPPING TO LOCAL
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM W-E MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY TUE...THEN
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN DEVELOPING SCT RAIN SHOWERS TUE
AFTERNOON. PRECIP CHANGES TO SNOW SHOWERS TUE NIGHT...THEN BACK TO
RAIN SHOWERS BEFORE TAPERING OFF AROUND MIDDAY WED WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NORTH WINDS PICK UP AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND A DISTURBANCE
PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECTING WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 5-7 FEET. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON CAPE COD BAY AND
NANTUCKET SOUND AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER MA AND RI COASTAL
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...N-NE WINDS BRIEFLY DIMINISH EARLY SAT NIGHT THEN
INCREASE AGAIN. GUSTS TO 25-30 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE OPEN WATERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS UP TO 6-8 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT N WINDS TO SHIFT TO SW DURING
SUNDAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25-30 KT. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5
FT ON THE OPEN WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO W...CONTINUE TO GUST TO
25-30 KT HIGHEST ON THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5 FT. WINDS
MAY BEGIN TO DIMINISH TUE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...EXPECT N-NW WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
SEAS MAY LINGER AROUND 5 FT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...BELK/EVT
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 272359
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
759 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PUSH SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRES MAY APPROACH LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH MORE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

740 PM UPDATE...
ISOLD LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BRIEFLY FALLING ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AS SEEN ON KBOX 88D RADAR IMAGERY. APPEARS
MOST OF THIS IS ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS UP TO THE CANAL
AND WILL SHIFT NE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 23Z SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWING WEAK PRES GRADIENT IN PLACE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
RADAR TRENDS FOR SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT OF INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

TEMPS/DEWPTS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...UPDATED TO BRING
CONDITIONS CURRENT. ALSO BROUGHT REMAINDER OF NEAR TERM FORECAST
CURRENT AS WELL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THERE REMAINS ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LIFT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH ZONE...SO WE DO EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP. IT ALL THEN
BECOMES A MATTER OF BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES...AND HOW QUICKLY
THEY CAN CAN GET LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW ALL THE WAY TO THE
GROUND. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY HAPPEN FIRST ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA.

27/12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A BANDING SIGNATURE
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
DETAIL DIFFERENCES YET TO BE RESOLVED. THESE DIFFERENCES CONCERN
THE LOCATION AND DURATION OF THE BANDING SIGNATURE. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE... FAVORS A
POSITION BETWEEN WORCESTER COUNTY AND THE WESTERN SUBURBS OF
BOSTON. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE LATEST RUNS OF THE
HRRR...BRING THIS BAND AS FAR WEST AS THE CT RIVER VALLEY. AT THIS
POINT...THINKING THE BANDING MOST LIKELY STAYS EAST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY...WITH PREDOMINANTLY NORTH WINDS PREVENTING MUCH OF A
WESTWARD PUSH. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
12-18 HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUDY
SKIES. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL SPEED UP THIS PROCESS LATER
TONIGHT AS WET-BULBING OCCURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST DURING THIS TIME.
THIS BRINGS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT...FURTHER DESTABILIZING THE
AIRMASS.

TEMPERATURES MARGINALLY FAVOR MAINLY SNOW...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRUCIAL TO SNOW
ACCUMULATION. COULD EVEN SEE A TRANSITION TO RAIN WITH JUST A
LITTLE UPWARD NUDGE. MODEL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED
WITH THIS LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE. THINKING 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IS
MORE THAN JUST A POSSIBILITY. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS EXCEED THAT
AMOUNT...PARTICULARLY IF THE BAND ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS
CENTRAL MA...NORTHEAST CT AND NORTHWEST RI. THESE ARE ALL
LOCATIONS WITH HIGHER TERRAIN. CONFIDENCE IN THE STORM TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SATURDAY IS MODERATE AT BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF DURING SATURDAY NIGHT
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* SPRING LIKE TEMPS MOVE IN FOR TUE-THU
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED

OVERVIEW...
12Z MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A TRANSITION OUT
OF AMPLIFIED TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY THIS WEEKEND
TO A FAST MOVING...ACTIVE STORM TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES TEND
WILL TO MODERATE OVER TIME...GETTING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...WITH FAST W-NW FLOW ALOFT AS H5
RIDGE BUILDS INTO WESTERN CANADA...WILL SEE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
IN THIS FLOW BRINGING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS.
TIMING THE INDIVIDUAL FEATURES IS TOUGH SO THIS LENDS TO BELOW
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

H5 TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST ALONG WITH INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NORTHERN EDGE OF LARGE HIGH PRES PASSING
ACROSS THE MID ATLC AND SE U.S. WILL BRING BRIEF DRYING BUT TEMPS
WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. BEYOND THIS...SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
WILL MOVE ACROSS WITH PERIODS OF SCT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY BEYOND.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT INVERTED TROUGH SITTING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS
TO SLOWLY PUSH SE DURING THE NIGHT AS OFFSHORE LOW PRES CONTINUES
TO MOVE AWAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN
SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM NW-SE THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO.

AS N-NE WIND INCREASING TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE E MA COAST SAT NIGHT ALONG WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY
FROM THE TROUGH...SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE SNOW THERE COULD
BE ENHANCED BY OCEAN EFFECT AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN OVER THE
RELATIVELY MILDER WATERS. THE 12Z NAM /AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE
GFS/ BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES WHICH WOULD SIGNAL
OCEAN EFFECT SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...OCEAN WATERS ARE AT THEIR
COLDEST LEVELS OF THE YEAR AND...THANKS TO ARCTIC AIR OF THE LAST
COUPLE OF MONTHS...SEA SURFACE TEMPS ARE RATHER LOW MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S IN CAPE COD BAY AND ALONG THE PLYMOUTH COUNTY
COASTLINE... RANGING TO THE LOWER 40S JUST OFF THE OUTER CAPE AND
NANTUCKET. WHEN FACTORING THIS INTO THE LAKE EFFECT TOOL ON
BUFKIT...THIS GIVES ONLY MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR THE OCEAN EFFECT.
NOT TOTALLY RULING OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF OCEAN EFFECT BANDS
SETTING UP ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE...BUT FURTHER W MAY HAVE A TOUGH
TIME. WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE THOUGH.

OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE UPPER TEENS WELL INLAND TO 25
TO 30 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WILL SEE DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRES RIDGE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES ACROSS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM W-E SUN
NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT PUSHES IN. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
REMAIN CHILLY...ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. TEMPS WILL
FALL BACK TO THE 20S EARLY SUN NIGHT...THEN HOLD STEADY OR RISE A
FEW DEGS AS CLOUDS MOVE IN AND SW WINDS PICK UP. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS MIGHT MAKE IT INTO THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES TOWARD
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND QUICKLY PUSHES
TOWARD THE REGION. MAY SEE SOME WIDELY SCT SNOW SHOWERS AS THE
PRECIP BEGINS MON MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...THEN
WILL CHANGE OVER TO SCT RAIN SHOWERS BY MIDDAY AS TEMPS RECOVER TO
THE 40S. THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY...WITH PRECIP TAPERING
OFF MONDAY EVENING. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S
MON NIGHT.

BRIEF RESPITE IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES ACROSS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL REACH THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S...THOUGH COOLER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WORKS OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
LATER TUE...REACHING THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY
WITH TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...THOUGH TIMING IS FAIRLY GOOD WITH PRECIP
ARRIVING TUE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TUE NIGHT. NOT A WHOLE
LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE SO WILL SEE SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WHICH WILL CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DURING TUE NIGHT.
EXPECT PRECIP TO TAPER OFF ACROSS WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE WED MORNING SO EXPECT PRECIP
TO TAPER OFF FROM W-E DURING THE MORNING. HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS FOR THE REMAINDER OF WED INTO WED NIGHT. MID LEVEL RIDGE
ALSO BUILDS E...SO WILL SEE TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON
WED.

HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THU NIGHT. TIMING OF NEXT
APPROACHING COMPLEX SYSTEM IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION THOUGH AS H5
TROUGH DIGS OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. GFS REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE ECWMF IS SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED. FOR
NOW...INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS FOR THU/THU NIGHT...THEN WENT WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW ON FRI. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE DURING
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR TO START WITH SPOTTY MVFR-IFR CIGS ACROSS
RI/SE MA. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR-IFR FROM S-N THROUGH 04Z-06Z.
POCKETS OF IFR-LIFR CIGS/MVFR-IFR VSBYS DEVELOP AROUND OR AFTER
06Z...LOWEST ACROSS E AND CENTRAL MA/RI. VSBYS WILL LOWER AS
-SHSN BREAKS OUT OVERNIGHT WITH INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPMENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY...EXPECT MVFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS AND
IFR CIGS ACROSS E MA INTO RI DURING THE DAY. MVFR-IFR CIGS ALSO
PREVALENT...LOWEST ACROSS E MA/RI. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO
THE 30S WHICH SHOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN IN PLACES ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE THE INTERIOR REMAINS SNOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MODERATE
CONFIDENCE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. WILL SEE
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS...BEST CHANCE ACROSS
RI/E MA. MAY SEE BRIEF LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET IN ANY SNOW BANDS THAT MAY FORM ALONG THE COAST. SHOULD
SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM NW-SE FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD...THOUGH
MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER ON THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...VFR DROPPING TO LOCAL
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM W-E MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY TUE...THEN
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN DEVELOPING SCT RAIN SHOWERS TUE
AFTERNOON. PRECIP CHANGES TO SNOW SHOWERS TUE NIGHT...THEN BACK TO
RAIN SHOWERS BEFORE TAPERING OFF AROUND MIDDAY WED WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NORTH WINDS PICK UP AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND A DISTURBANCE
PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECTING WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 5-7 FEET. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON CAPE COD BAY AND
NANTUCKET SOUND AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER MA AND RI COASTAL
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...N-NE WINDS BRIEFLY DIMINISH EARLY SAT NIGHT THEN
INCREASE AGAIN. GUSTS TO 25-30 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE OPEN WATERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS UP TO 6-8 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT N WINDS TO SHIFT TO SW DURING
SUNDAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25-30 KT. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5
FT ON THE OPEN WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO W...CONTINUE TO GUST TO
25-30 KT HIGHEST ON THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5 FT. WINDS
MAY BEGIN TO DIMINISH TUE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...EXPECT N-NW WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
SEAS MAY LINGER AROUND 5 FT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...BELK/EVT
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 272359
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
759 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PUSH SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRES MAY APPROACH LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH MORE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

740 PM UPDATE...
ISOLD LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BRIEFLY FALLING ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AS SEEN ON KBOX 88D RADAR IMAGERY. APPEARS
MOST OF THIS IS ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS UP TO THE CANAL
AND WILL SHIFT NE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 23Z SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWING WEAK PRES GRADIENT IN PLACE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
RADAR TRENDS FOR SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT OF INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

TEMPS/DEWPTS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...UPDATED TO BRING
CONDITIONS CURRENT. ALSO BROUGHT REMAINDER OF NEAR TERM FORECAST
CURRENT AS WELL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THERE REMAINS ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LIFT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH ZONE...SO WE DO EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP. IT ALL THEN
BECOMES A MATTER OF BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES...AND HOW QUICKLY
THEY CAN CAN GET LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW ALL THE WAY TO THE
GROUND. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY HAPPEN FIRST ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA.

27/12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A BANDING SIGNATURE
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
DETAIL DIFFERENCES YET TO BE RESOLVED. THESE DIFFERENCES CONCERN
THE LOCATION AND DURATION OF THE BANDING SIGNATURE. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE... FAVORS A
POSITION BETWEEN WORCESTER COUNTY AND THE WESTERN SUBURBS OF
BOSTON. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE LATEST RUNS OF THE
HRRR...BRING THIS BAND AS FAR WEST AS THE CT RIVER VALLEY. AT THIS
POINT...THINKING THE BANDING MOST LIKELY STAYS EAST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY...WITH PREDOMINANTLY NORTH WINDS PREVENTING MUCH OF A
WESTWARD PUSH. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
12-18 HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUDY
SKIES. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL SPEED UP THIS PROCESS LATER
TONIGHT AS WET-BULBING OCCURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST DURING THIS TIME.
THIS BRINGS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT...FURTHER DESTABILIZING THE
AIRMASS.

TEMPERATURES MARGINALLY FAVOR MAINLY SNOW...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRUCIAL TO SNOW
ACCUMULATION. COULD EVEN SEE A TRANSITION TO RAIN WITH JUST A
LITTLE UPWARD NUDGE. MODEL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED
WITH THIS LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE. THINKING 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IS
MORE THAN JUST A POSSIBILITY. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS EXCEED THAT
AMOUNT...PARTICULARLY IF THE BAND ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS
CENTRAL MA...NORTHEAST CT AND NORTHWEST RI. THESE ARE ALL
LOCATIONS WITH HIGHER TERRAIN. CONFIDENCE IN THE STORM TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SATURDAY IS MODERATE AT BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF DURING SATURDAY NIGHT
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* SPRING LIKE TEMPS MOVE IN FOR TUE-THU
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED

OVERVIEW...
12Z MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A TRANSITION OUT
OF AMPLIFIED TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY THIS WEEKEND
TO A FAST MOVING...ACTIVE STORM TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES TEND
WILL TO MODERATE OVER TIME...GETTING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...WITH FAST W-NW FLOW ALOFT AS H5
RIDGE BUILDS INTO WESTERN CANADA...WILL SEE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
IN THIS FLOW BRINGING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS.
TIMING THE INDIVIDUAL FEATURES IS TOUGH SO THIS LENDS TO BELOW
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

H5 TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST ALONG WITH INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NORTHERN EDGE OF LARGE HIGH PRES PASSING
ACROSS THE MID ATLC AND SE U.S. WILL BRING BRIEF DRYING BUT TEMPS
WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. BEYOND THIS...SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
WILL MOVE ACROSS WITH PERIODS OF SCT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY BEYOND.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT INVERTED TROUGH SITTING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS
TO SLOWLY PUSH SE DURING THE NIGHT AS OFFSHORE LOW PRES CONTINUES
TO MOVE AWAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN
SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM NW-SE THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO.

AS N-NE WIND INCREASING TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE E MA COAST SAT NIGHT ALONG WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY
FROM THE TROUGH...SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE SNOW THERE COULD
BE ENHANCED BY OCEAN EFFECT AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN OVER THE
RELATIVELY MILDER WATERS. THE 12Z NAM /AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE
GFS/ BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES WHICH WOULD SIGNAL
OCEAN EFFECT SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...OCEAN WATERS ARE AT THEIR
COLDEST LEVELS OF THE YEAR AND...THANKS TO ARCTIC AIR OF THE LAST
COUPLE OF MONTHS...SEA SURFACE TEMPS ARE RATHER LOW MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S IN CAPE COD BAY AND ALONG THE PLYMOUTH COUNTY
COASTLINE... RANGING TO THE LOWER 40S JUST OFF THE OUTER CAPE AND
NANTUCKET. WHEN FACTORING THIS INTO THE LAKE EFFECT TOOL ON
BUFKIT...THIS GIVES ONLY MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR THE OCEAN EFFECT.
NOT TOTALLY RULING OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF OCEAN EFFECT BANDS
SETTING UP ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE...BUT FURTHER W MAY HAVE A TOUGH
TIME. WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE THOUGH.

OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE UPPER TEENS WELL INLAND TO 25
TO 30 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WILL SEE DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRES RIDGE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES ACROSS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM W-E SUN
NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT PUSHES IN. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
REMAIN CHILLY...ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. TEMPS WILL
FALL BACK TO THE 20S EARLY SUN NIGHT...THEN HOLD STEADY OR RISE A
FEW DEGS AS CLOUDS MOVE IN AND SW WINDS PICK UP. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS MIGHT MAKE IT INTO THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES TOWARD
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND QUICKLY PUSHES
TOWARD THE REGION. MAY SEE SOME WIDELY SCT SNOW SHOWERS AS THE
PRECIP BEGINS MON MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...THEN
WILL CHANGE OVER TO SCT RAIN SHOWERS BY MIDDAY AS TEMPS RECOVER TO
THE 40S. THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY...WITH PRECIP TAPERING
OFF MONDAY EVENING. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S
MON NIGHT.

BRIEF RESPITE IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES ACROSS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL REACH THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S...THOUGH COOLER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WORKS OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
LATER TUE...REACHING THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY
WITH TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...THOUGH TIMING IS FAIRLY GOOD WITH PRECIP
ARRIVING TUE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TUE NIGHT. NOT A WHOLE
LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE SO WILL SEE SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WHICH WILL CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DURING TUE NIGHT.
EXPECT PRECIP TO TAPER OFF ACROSS WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE WED MORNING SO EXPECT PRECIP
TO TAPER OFF FROM W-E DURING THE MORNING. HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS FOR THE REMAINDER OF WED INTO WED NIGHT. MID LEVEL RIDGE
ALSO BUILDS E...SO WILL SEE TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON
WED.

HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THU NIGHT. TIMING OF NEXT
APPROACHING COMPLEX SYSTEM IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION THOUGH AS H5
TROUGH DIGS OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. GFS REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE ECWMF IS SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED. FOR
NOW...INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS FOR THU/THU NIGHT...THEN WENT WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW ON FRI. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE DURING
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR TO START WITH SPOTTY MVFR-IFR CIGS ACROSS
RI/SE MA. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR-IFR FROM S-N THROUGH 04Z-06Z.
POCKETS OF IFR-LIFR CIGS/MVFR-IFR VSBYS DEVELOP AROUND OR AFTER
06Z...LOWEST ACROSS E AND CENTRAL MA/RI. VSBYS WILL LOWER AS
-SHSN BREAKS OUT OVERNIGHT WITH INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPMENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY...EXPECT MVFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS AND
IFR CIGS ACROSS E MA INTO RI DURING THE DAY. MVFR-IFR CIGS ALSO
PREVALENT...LOWEST ACROSS E MA/RI. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO
THE 30S WHICH SHOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN IN PLACES ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE THE INTERIOR REMAINS SNOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MODERATE
CONFIDENCE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. WILL SEE
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS...BEST CHANCE ACROSS
RI/E MA. MAY SEE BRIEF LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET IN ANY SNOW BANDS THAT MAY FORM ALONG THE COAST. SHOULD
SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM NW-SE FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD...THOUGH
MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER ON THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...VFR DROPPING TO LOCAL
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM W-E MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY TUE...THEN
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN DEVELOPING SCT RAIN SHOWERS TUE
AFTERNOON. PRECIP CHANGES TO SNOW SHOWERS TUE NIGHT...THEN BACK TO
RAIN SHOWERS BEFORE TAPERING OFF AROUND MIDDAY WED WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NORTH WINDS PICK UP AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND A DISTURBANCE
PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECTING WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 5-7 FEET. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON CAPE COD BAY AND
NANTUCKET SOUND AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER MA AND RI COASTAL
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...N-NE WINDS BRIEFLY DIMINISH EARLY SAT NIGHT THEN
INCREASE AGAIN. GUSTS TO 25-30 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE OPEN WATERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS UP TO 6-8 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT N WINDS TO SHIFT TO SW DURING
SUNDAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25-30 KT. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5
FT ON THE OPEN WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO W...CONTINUE TO GUST TO
25-30 KT HIGHEST ON THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5 FT. WINDS
MAY BEGIN TO DIMINISH TUE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...EXPECT N-NW WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
SEAS MAY LINGER AROUND 5 FT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...BELK/EVT
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 272359
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
759 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PUSH SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRES MAY APPROACH LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH MORE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

740 PM UPDATE...
ISOLD LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BRIEFLY FALLING ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AS SEEN ON KBOX 88D RADAR IMAGERY. APPEARS
MOST OF THIS IS ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS UP TO THE CANAL
AND WILL SHIFT NE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 23Z SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWING WEAK PRES GRADIENT IN PLACE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
RADAR TRENDS FOR SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT OF INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

TEMPS/DEWPTS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...UPDATED TO BRING
CONDITIONS CURRENT. ALSO BROUGHT REMAINDER OF NEAR TERM FORECAST
CURRENT AS WELL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THERE REMAINS ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LIFT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH ZONE...SO WE DO EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP. IT ALL THEN
BECOMES A MATTER OF BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES...AND HOW QUICKLY
THEY CAN CAN GET LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW ALL THE WAY TO THE
GROUND. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY HAPPEN FIRST ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA.

27/12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A BANDING SIGNATURE
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
DETAIL DIFFERENCES YET TO BE RESOLVED. THESE DIFFERENCES CONCERN
THE LOCATION AND DURATION OF THE BANDING SIGNATURE. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE... FAVORS A
POSITION BETWEEN WORCESTER COUNTY AND THE WESTERN SUBURBS OF
BOSTON. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE LATEST RUNS OF THE
HRRR...BRING THIS BAND AS FAR WEST AS THE CT RIVER VALLEY. AT THIS
POINT...THINKING THE BANDING MOST LIKELY STAYS EAST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY...WITH PREDOMINANTLY NORTH WINDS PREVENTING MUCH OF A
WESTWARD PUSH. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
12-18 HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUDY
SKIES. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL SPEED UP THIS PROCESS LATER
TONIGHT AS WET-BULBING OCCURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST DURING THIS TIME.
THIS BRINGS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT...FURTHER DESTABILIZING THE
AIRMASS.

TEMPERATURES MARGINALLY FAVOR MAINLY SNOW...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRUCIAL TO SNOW
ACCUMULATION. COULD EVEN SEE A TRANSITION TO RAIN WITH JUST A
LITTLE UPWARD NUDGE. MODEL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED
WITH THIS LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE. THINKING 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IS
MORE THAN JUST A POSSIBILITY. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS EXCEED THAT
AMOUNT...PARTICULARLY IF THE BAND ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS
CENTRAL MA...NORTHEAST CT AND NORTHWEST RI. THESE ARE ALL
LOCATIONS WITH HIGHER TERRAIN. CONFIDENCE IN THE STORM TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SATURDAY IS MODERATE AT BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF DURING SATURDAY NIGHT
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* SPRING LIKE TEMPS MOVE IN FOR TUE-THU
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED

OVERVIEW...
12Z MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A TRANSITION OUT
OF AMPLIFIED TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY THIS WEEKEND
TO A FAST MOVING...ACTIVE STORM TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES TEND
WILL TO MODERATE OVER TIME...GETTING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...WITH FAST W-NW FLOW ALOFT AS H5
RIDGE BUILDS INTO WESTERN CANADA...WILL SEE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
IN THIS FLOW BRINGING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS.
TIMING THE INDIVIDUAL FEATURES IS TOUGH SO THIS LENDS TO BELOW
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

H5 TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST ALONG WITH INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NORTHERN EDGE OF LARGE HIGH PRES PASSING
ACROSS THE MID ATLC AND SE U.S. WILL BRING BRIEF DRYING BUT TEMPS
WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. BEYOND THIS...SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
WILL MOVE ACROSS WITH PERIODS OF SCT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY BEYOND.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT INVERTED TROUGH SITTING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS
TO SLOWLY PUSH SE DURING THE NIGHT AS OFFSHORE LOW PRES CONTINUES
TO MOVE AWAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN
SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM NW-SE THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO.

AS N-NE WIND INCREASING TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE E MA COAST SAT NIGHT ALONG WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY
FROM THE TROUGH...SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE SNOW THERE COULD
BE ENHANCED BY OCEAN EFFECT AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN OVER THE
RELATIVELY MILDER WATERS. THE 12Z NAM /AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE
GFS/ BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES WHICH WOULD SIGNAL
OCEAN EFFECT SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...OCEAN WATERS ARE AT THEIR
COLDEST LEVELS OF THE YEAR AND...THANKS TO ARCTIC AIR OF THE LAST
COUPLE OF MONTHS...SEA SURFACE TEMPS ARE RATHER LOW MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S IN CAPE COD BAY AND ALONG THE PLYMOUTH COUNTY
COASTLINE... RANGING TO THE LOWER 40S JUST OFF THE OUTER CAPE AND
NANTUCKET. WHEN FACTORING THIS INTO THE LAKE EFFECT TOOL ON
BUFKIT...THIS GIVES ONLY MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR THE OCEAN EFFECT.
NOT TOTALLY RULING OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF OCEAN EFFECT BANDS
SETTING UP ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE...BUT FURTHER W MAY HAVE A TOUGH
TIME. WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE THOUGH.

OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE UPPER TEENS WELL INLAND TO 25
TO 30 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WILL SEE DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRES RIDGE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES ACROSS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM W-E SUN
NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT PUSHES IN. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
REMAIN CHILLY...ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. TEMPS WILL
FALL BACK TO THE 20S EARLY SUN NIGHT...THEN HOLD STEADY OR RISE A
FEW DEGS AS CLOUDS MOVE IN AND SW WINDS PICK UP. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS MIGHT MAKE IT INTO THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES TOWARD
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND QUICKLY PUSHES
TOWARD THE REGION. MAY SEE SOME WIDELY SCT SNOW SHOWERS AS THE
PRECIP BEGINS MON MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...THEN
WILL CHANGE OVER TO SCT RAIN SHOWERS BY MIDDAY AS TEMPS RECOVER TO
THE 40S. THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY...WITH PRECIP TAPERING
OFF MONDAY EVENING. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S
MON NIGHT.

BRIEF RESPITE IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES ACROSS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL REACH THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S...THOUGH COOLER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WORKS OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
LATER TUE...REACHING THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY
WITH TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...THOUGH TIMING IS FAIRLY GOOD WITH PRECIP
ARRIVING TUE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TUE NIGHT. NOT A WHOLE
LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE SO WILL SEE SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WHICH WILL CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DURING TUE NIGHT.
EXPECT PRECIP TO TAPER OFF ACROSS WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE WED MORNING SO EXPECT PRECIP
TO TAPER OFF FROM W-E DURING THE MORNING. HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS FOR THE REMAINDER OF WED INTO WED NIGHT. MID LEVEL RIDGE
ALSO BUILDS E...SO WILL SEE TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON
WED.

HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THU NIGHT. TIMING OF NEXT
APPROACHING COMPLEX SYSTEM IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION THOUGH AS H5
TROUGH DIGS OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. GFS REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE ECWMF IS SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED. FOR
NOW...INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS FOR THU/THU NIGHT...THEN WENT WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW ON FRI. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE DURING
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR TO START WITH SPOTTY MVFR-IFR CIGS ACROSS
RI/SE MA. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR-IFR FROM S-N THROUGH 04Z-06Z.
POCKETS OF IFR-LIFR CIGS/MVFR-IFR VSBYS DEVELOP AROUND OR AFTER
06Z...LOWEST ACROSS E AND CENTRAL MA/RI. VSBYS WILL LOWER AS
-SHSN BREAKS OUT OVERNIGHT WITH INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPMENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY...EXPECT MVFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS AND
IFR CIGS ACROSS E MA INTO RI DURING THE DAY. MVFR-IFR CIGS ALSO
PREVALENT...LOWEST ACROSS E MA/RI. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO
THE 30S WHICH SHOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN IN PLACES ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE THE INTERIOR REMAINS SNOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MODERATE
CONFIDENCE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. WILL SEE
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS...BEST CHANCE ACROSS
RI/E MA. MAY SEE BRIEF LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET IN ANY SNOW BANDS THAT MAY FORM ALONG THE COAST. SHOULD
SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM NW-SE FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD...THOUGH
MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER ON THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...VFR DROPPING TO LOCAL
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM W-E MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY TUE...THEN
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN DEVELOPING SCT RAIN SHOWERS TUE
AFTERNOON. PRECIP CHANGES TO SNOW SHOWERS TUE NIGHT...THEN BACK TO
RAIN SHOWERS BEFORE TAPERING OFF AROUND MIDDAY WED WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NORTH WINDS PICK UP AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND A DISTURBANCE
PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECTING WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 5-7 FEET. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON CAPE COD BAY AND
NANTUCKET SOUND AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER MA AND RI COASTAL
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...N-NE WINDS BRIEFLY DIMINISH EARLY SAT NIGHT THEN
INCREASE AGAIN. GUSTS TO 25-30 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE OPEN WATERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS UP TO 6-8 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT N WINDS TO SHIFT TO SW DURING
SUNDAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25-30 KT. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5
FT ON THE OPEN WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO W...CONTINUE TO GUST TO
25-30 KT HIGHEST ON THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5 FT. WINDS
MAY BEGIN TO DIMINISH TUE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...EXPECT N-NW WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
SEAS MAY LINGER AROUND 5 FT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...BELK/EVT
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 272359
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
759 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PUSH SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRES MAY APPROACH LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH MORE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

740 PM UPDATE...
ISOLD LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BRIEFLY FALLING ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AS SEEN ON KBOX 88D RADAR IMAGERY. APPEARS
MOST OF THIS IS ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS UP TO THE CANAL
AND WILL SHIFT NE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 23Z SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWING WEAK PRES GRADIENT IN PLACE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
RADAR TRENDS FOR SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT OF INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

TEMPS/DEWPTS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...UPDATED TO BRING
CONDITIONS CURRENT. ALSO BROUGHT REMAINDER OF NEAR TERM FORECAST
CURRENT AS WELL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THERE REMAINS ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LIFT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH ZONE...SO WE DO EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP. IT ALL THEN
BECOMES A MATTER OF BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES...AND HOW QUICKLY
THEY CAN CAN GET LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW ALL THE WAY TO THE
GROUND. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY HAPPEN FIRST ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA.

27/12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A BANDING SIGNATURE
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
DETAIL DIFFERENCES YET TO BE RESOLVED. THESE DIFFERENCES CONCERN
THE LOCATION AND DURATION OF THE BANDING SIGNATURE. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE... FAVORS A
POSITION BETWEEN WORCESTER COUNTY AND THE WESTERN SUBURBS OF
BOSTON. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE LATEST RUNS OF THE
HRRR...BRING THIS BAND AS FAR WEST AS THE CT RIVER VALLEY. AT THIS
POINT...THINKING THE BANDING MOST LIKELY STAYS EAST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY...WITH PREDOMINANTLY NORTH WINDS PREVENTING MUCH OF A
WESTWARD PUSH. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
12-18 HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUDY
SKIES. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL SPEED UP THIS PROCESS LATER
TONIGHT AS WET-BULBING OCCURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST DURING THIS TIME.
THIS BRINGS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT...FURTHER DESTABILIZING THE
AIRMASS.

TEMPERATURES MARGINALLY FAVOR MAINLY SNOW...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRUCIAL TO SNOW
ACCUMULATION. COULD EVEN SEE A TRANSITION TO RAIN WITH JUST A
LITTLE UPWARD NUDGE. MODEL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED
WITH THIS LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE. THINKING 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IS
MORE THAN JUST A POSSIBILITY. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS EXCEED THAT
AMOUNT...PARTICULARLY IF THE BAND ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS
CENTRAL MA...NORTHEAST CT AND NORTHWEST RI. THESE ARE ALL
LOCATIONS WITH HIGHER TERRAIN. CONFIDENCE IN THE STORM TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SATURDAY IS MODERATE AT BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF DURING SATURDAY NIGHT
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* SPRING LIKE TEMPS MOVE IN FOR TUE-THU
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED

OVERVIEW...
12Z MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A TRANSITION OUT
OF AMPLIFIED TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY THIS WEEKEND
TO A FAST MOVING...ACTIVE STORM TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES TEND
WILL TO MODERATE OVER TIME...GETTING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...WITH FAST W-NW FLOW ALOFT AS H5
RIDGE BUILDS INTO WESTERN CANADA...WILL SEE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
IN THIS FLOW BRINGING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS.
TIMING THE INDIVIDUAL FEATURES IS TOUGH SO THIS LENDS TO BELOW
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

H5 TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST ALONG WITH INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NORTHERN EDGE OF LARGE HIGH PRES PASSING
ACROSS THE MID ATLC AND SE U.S. WILL BRING BRIEF DRYING BUT TEMPS
WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. BEYOND THIS...SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
WILL MOVE ACROSS WITH PERIODS OF SCT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY BEYOND.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT INVERTED TROUGH SITTING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS
TO SLOWLY PUSH SE DURING THE NIGHT AS OFFSHORE LOW PRES CONTINUES
TO MOVE AWAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN
SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM NW-SE THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO.

AS N-NE WIND INCREASING TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE E MA COAST SAT NIGHT ALONG WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY
FROM THE TROUGH...SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE SNOW THERE COULD
BE ENHANCED BY OCEAN EFFECT AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN OVER THE
RELATIVELY MILDER WATERS. THE 12Z NAM /AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE
GFS/ BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES WHICH WOULD SIGNAL
OCEAN EFFECT SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...OCEAN WATERS ARE AT THEIR
COLDEST LEVELS OF THE YEAR AND...THANKS TO ARCTIC AIR OF THE LAST
COUPLE OF MONTHS...SEA SURFACE TEMPS ARE RATHER LOW MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S IN CAPE COD BAY AND ALONG THE PLYMOUTH COUNTY
COASTLINE... RANGING TO THE LOWER 40S JUST OFF THE OUTER CAPE AND
NANTUCKET. WHEN FACTORING THIS INTO THE LAKE EFFECT TOOL ON
BUFKIT...THIS GIVES ONLY MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR THE OCEAN EFFECT.
NOT TOTALLY RULING OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF OCEAN EFFECT BANDS
SETTING UP ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE...BUT FURTHER W MAY HAVE A TOUGH
TIME. WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE THOUGH.

OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE UPPER TEENS WELL INLAND TO 25
TO 30 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WILL SEE DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRES RIDGE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES ACROSS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM W-E SUN
NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT PUSHES IN. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
REMAIN CHILLY...ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. TEMPS WILL
FALL BACK TO THE 20S EARLY SUN NIGHT...THEN HOLD STEADY OR RISE A
FEW DEGS AS CLOUDS MOVE IN AND SW WINDS PICK UP. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS MIGHT MAKE IT INTO THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES TOWARD
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND QUICKLY PUSHES
TOWARD THE REGION. MAY SEE SOME WIDELY SCT SNOW SHOWERS AS THE
PRECIP BEGINS MON MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...THEN
WILL CHANGE OVER TO SCT RAIN SHOWERS BY MIDDAY AS TEMPS RECOVER TO
THE 40S. THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY...WITH PRECIP TAPERING
OFF MONDAY EVENING. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S
MON NIGHT.

BRIEF RESPITE IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES ACROSS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL REACH THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S...THOUGH COOLER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WORKS OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
LATER TUE...REACHING THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY
WITH TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...THOUGH TIMING IS FAIRLY GOOD WITH PRECIP
ARRIVING TUE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TUE NIGHT. NOT A WHOLE
LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE SO WILL SEE SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WHICH WILL CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DURING TUE NIGHT.
EXPECT PRECIP TO TAPER OFF ACROSS WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE WED MORNING SO EXPECT PRECIP
TO TAPER OFF FROM W-E DURING THE MORNING. HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS FOR THE REMAINDER OF WED INTO WED NIGHT. MID LEVEL RIDGE
ALSO BUILDS E...SO WILL SEE TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON
WED.

HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THU NIGHT. TIMING OF NEXT
APPROACHING COMPLEX SYSTEM IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION THOUGH AS H5
TROUGH DIGS OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. GFS REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE ECWMF IS SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED. FOR
NOW...INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS FOR THU/THU NIGHT...THEN WENT WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW ON FRI. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE DURING
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR TO START WITH SPOTTY MVFR-IFR CIGS ACROSS
RI/SE MA. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR-IFR FROM S-N THROUGH 04Z-06Z.
POCKETS OF IFR-LIFR CIGS/MVFR-IFR VSBYS DEVELOP AROUND OR AFTER
06Z...LOWEST ACROSS E AND CENTRAL MA/RI. VSBYS WILL LOWER AS
-SHSN BREAKS OUT OVERNIGHT WITH INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPMENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY...EXPECT MVFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS AND
IFR CIGS ACROSS E MA INTO RI DURING THE DAY. MVFR-IFR CIGS ALSO
PREVALENT...LOWEST ACROSS E MA/RI. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO
THE 30S WHICH SHOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN IN PLACES ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE THE INTERIOR REMAINS SNOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MODERATE
CONFIDENCE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. WILL SEE
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS...BEST CHANCE ACROSS
RI/E MA. MAY SEE BRIEF LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET IN ANY SNOW BANDS THAT MAY FORM ALONG THE COAST. SHOULD
SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM NW-SE FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD...THOUGH
MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER ON THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...VFR DROPPING TO LOCAL
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM W-E MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY TUE...THEN
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN DEVELOPING SCT RAIN SHOWERS TUE
AFTERNOON. PRECIP CHANGES TO SNOW SHOWERS TUE NIGHT...THEN BACK TO
RAIN SHOWERS BEFORE TAPERING OFF AROUND MIDDAY WED WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NORTH WINDS PICK UP AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND A DISTURBANCE
PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECTING WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 5-7 FEET. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON CAPE COD BAY AND
NANTUCKET SOUND AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER MA AND RI COASTAL
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...N-NE WINDS BRIEFLY DIMINISH EARLY SAT NIGHT THEN
INCREASE AGAIN. GUSTS TO 25-30 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE OPEN WATERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS UP TO 6-8 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT N WINDS TO SHIFT TO SW DURING
SUNDAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25-30 KT. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5
FT ON THE OPEN WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO W...CONTINUE TO GUST TO
25-30 KT HIGHEST ON THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5 FT. WINDS
MAY BEGIN TO DIMINISH TUE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...EXPECT N-NW WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
SEAS MAY LINGER AROUND 5 FT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...BELK/EVT
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 272359
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
759 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PUSH SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRES MAY APPROACH LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH MORE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

740 PM UPDATE...
ISOLD LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BRIEFLY FALLING ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AS SEEN ON KBOX 88D RADAR IMAGERY. APPEARS
MOST OF THIS IS ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS UP TO THE CANAL
AND WILL SHIFT NE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 23Z SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWING WEAK PRES GRADIENT IN PLACE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
RADAR TRENDS FOR SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT OF INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

TEMPS/DEWPTS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...UPDATED TO BRING
CONDITIONS CURRENT. ALSO BROUGHT REMAINDER OF NEAR TERM FORECAST
CURRENT AS WELL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THERE REMAINS ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LIFT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH ZONE...SO WE DO EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP. IT ALL THEN
BECOMES A MATTER OF BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES...AND HOW QUICKLY
THEY CAN CAN GET LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW ALL THE WAY TO THE
GROUND. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY HAPPEN FIRST ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA.

27/12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A BANDING SIGNATURE
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
DETAIL DIFFERENCES YET TO BE RESOLVED. THESE DIFFERENCES CONCERN
THE LOCATION AND DURATION OF THE BANDING SIGNATURE. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE... FAVORS A
POSITION BETWEEN WORCESTER COUNTY AND THE WESTERN SUBURBS OF
BOSTON. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE LATEST RUNS OF THE
HRRR...BRING THIS BAND AS FAR WEST AS THE CT RIVER VALLEY. AT THIS
POINT...THINKING THE BANDING MOST LIKELY STAYS EAST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY...WITH PREDOMINANTLY NORTH WINDS PREVENTING MUCH OF A
WESTWARD PUSH. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
12-18 HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUDY
SKIES. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL SPEED UP THIS PROCESS LATER
TONIGHT AS WET-BULBING OCCURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST DURING THIS TIME.
THIS BRINGS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT...FURTHER DESTABILIZING THE
AIRMASS.

TEMPERATURES MARGINALLY FAVOR MAINLY SNOW...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRUCIAL TO SNOW
ACCUMULATION. COULD EVEN SEE A TRANSITION TO RAIN WITH JUST A
LITTLE UPWARD NUDGE. MODEL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED
WITH THIS LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE. THINKING 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IS
MORE THAN JUST A POSSIBILITY. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS EXCEED THAT
AMOUNT...PARTICULARLY IF THE BAND ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS
CENTRAL MA...NORTHEAST CT AND NORTHWEST RI. THESE ARE ALL
LOCATIONS WITH HIGHER TERRAIN. CONFIDENCE IN THE STORM TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SATURDAY IS MODERATE AT BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF DURING SATURDAY NIGHT
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* SPRING LIKE TEMPS MOVE IN FOR TUE-THU
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED

OVERVIEW...
12Z MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A TRANSITION OUT
OF AMPLIFIED TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY THIS WEEKEND
TO A FAST MOVING...ACTIVE STORM TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES TEND
WILL TO MODERATE OVER TIME...GETTING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...WITH FAST W-NW FLOW ALOFT AS H5
RIDGE BUILDS INTO WESTERN CANADA...WILL SEE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
IN THIS FLOW BRINGING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS.
TIMING THE INDIVIDUAL FEATURES IS TOUGH SO THIS LENDS TO BELOW
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

H5 TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST ALONG WITH INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NORTHERN EDGE OF LARGE HIGH PRES PASSING
ACROSS THE MID ATLC AND SE U.S. WILL BRING BRIEF DRYING BUT TEMPS
WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. BEYOND THIS...SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
WILL MOVE ACROSS WITH PERIODS OF SCT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY BEYOND.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT INVERTED TROUGH SITTING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS
TO SLOWLY PUSH SE DURING THE NIGHT AS OFFSHORE LOW PRES CONTINUES
TO MOVE AWAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN
SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM NW-SE THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO.

AS N-NE WIND INCREASING TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE E MA COAST SAT NIGHT ALONG WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY
FROM THE TROUGH...SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE SNOW THERE COULD
BE ENHANCED BY OCEAN EFFECT AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN OVER THE
RELATIVELY MILDER WATERS. THE 12Z NAM /AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE
GFS/ BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES WHICH WOULD SIGNAL
OCEAN EFFECT SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...OCEAN WATERS ARE AT THEIR
COLDEST LEVELS OF THE YEAR AND...THANKS TO ARCTIC AIR OF THE LAST
COUPLE OF MONTHS...SEA SURFACE TEMPS ARE RATHER LOW MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S IN CAPE COD BAY AND ALONG THE PLYMOUTH COUNTY
COASTLINE... RANGING TO THE LOWER 40S JUST OFF THE OUTER CAPE AND
NANTUCKET. WHEN FACTORING THIS INTO THE LAKE EFFECT TOOL ON
BUFKIT...THIS GIVES ONLY MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR THE OCEAN EFFECT.
NOT TOTALLY RULING OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF OCEAN EFFECT BANDS
SETTING UP ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE...BUT FURTHER W MAY HAVE A TOUGH
TIME. WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE THOUGH.

OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE UPPER TEENS WELL INLAND TO 25
TO 30 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WILL SEE DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRES RIDGE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES ACROSS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM W-E SUN
NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT PUSHES IN. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
REMAIN CHILLY...ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. TEMPS WILL
FALL BACK TO THE 20S EARLY SUN NIGHT...THEN HOLD STEADY OR RISE A
FEW DEGS AS CLOUDS MOVE IN AND SW WINDS PICK UP. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS MIGHT MAKE IT INTO THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES TOWARD
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND QUICKLY PUSHES
TOWARD THE REGION. MAY SEE SOME WIDELY SCT SNOW SHOWERS AS THE
PRECIP BEGINS MON MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...THEN
WILL CHANGE OVER TO SCT RAIN SHOWERS BY MIDDAY AS TEMPS RECOVER TO
THE 40S. THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY...WITH PRECIP TAPERING
OFF MONDAY EVENING. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S
MON NIGHT.

BRIEF RESPITE IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES ACROSS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL REACH THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S...THOUGH COOLER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WORKS OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
LATER TUE...REACHING THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY
WITH TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...THOUGH TIMING IS FAIRLY GOOD WITH PRECIP
ARRIVING TUE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TUE NIGHT. NOT A WHOLE
LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE SO WILL SEE SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WHICH WILL CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DURING TUE NIGHT.
EXPECT PRECIP TO TAPER OFF ACROSS WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE WED MORNING SO EXPECT PRECIP
TO TAPER OFF FROM W-E DURING THE MORNING. HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS FOR THE REMAINDER OF WED INTO WED NIGHT. MID LEVEL RIDGE
ALSO BUILDS E...SO WILL SEE TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON
WED.

HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THU NIGHT. TIMING OF NEXT
APPROACHING COMPLEX SYSTEM IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION THOUGH AS H5
TROUGH DIGS OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. GFS REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE ECWMF IS SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED. FOR
NOW...INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS FOR THU/THU NIGHT...THEN WENT WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW ON FRI. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE DURING
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR TO START WITH SPOTTY MVFR-IFR CIGS ACROSS
RI/SE MA. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR-IFR FROM S-N THROUGH 04Z-06Z.
POCKETS OF IFR-LIFR CIGS/MVFR-IFR VSBYS DEVELOP AROUND OR AFTER
06Z...LOWEST ACROSS E AND CENTRAL MA/RI. VSBYS WILL LOWER AS
-SHSN BREAKS OUT OVERNIGHT WITH INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPMENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY...EXPECT MVFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS AND
IFR CIGS ACROSS E MA INTO RI DURING THE DAY. MVFR-IFR CIGS ALSO
PREVALENT...LOWEST ACROSS E MA/RI. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO
THE 30S WHICH SHOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN IN PLACES ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE THE INTERIOR REMAINS SNOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MODERATE
CONFIDENCE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. WILL SEE
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS...BEST CHANCE ACROSS
RI/E MA. MAY SEE BRIEF LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET IN ANY SNOW BANDS THAT MAY FORM ALONG THE COAST. SHOULD
SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM NW-SE FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD...THOUGH
MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER ON THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...VFR DROPPING TO LOCAL
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM W-E MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY TUE...THEN
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN DEVELOPING SCT RAIN SHOWERS TUE
AFTERNOON. PRECIP CHANGES TO SNOW SHOWERS TUE NIGHT...THEN BACK TO
RAIN SHOWERS BEFORE TAPERING OFF AROUND MIDDAY WED WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NORTH WINDS PICK UP AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND A DISTURBANCE
PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECTING WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 5-7 FEET. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON CAPE COD BAY AND
NANTUCKET SOUND AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER MA AND RI COASTAL
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...N-NE WINDS BRIEFLY DIMINISH EARLY SAT NIGHT THEN
INCREASE AGAIN. GUSTS TO 25-30 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE OPEN WATERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS UP TO 6-8 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT N WINDS TO SHIFT TO SW DURING
SUNDAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25-30 KT. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5
FT ON THE OPEN WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO W...CONTINUE TO GUST TO
25-30 KT HIGHEST ON THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5 FT. WINDS
MAY BEGIN TO DIMINISH TUE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...EXPECT N-NW WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
SEAS MAY LINGER AROUND 5 FT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...BELK/EVT
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 272132
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
532 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PUSH SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRES MAY APPROACH LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH MORE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED LIGHT RAINFALL CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY 40-45 DEGREES
REGION-WIDE.

27/12Z GUIDANCE SUITE HAS COME INTO REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOME 200 MILES FROM NANTUCKET...WE DO
STILL EXPECT AN INVERTED TROUGH TO ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

THERE REMAINS ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LIFT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC SNOW
GROWTH ZONE...SO WE DO EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP. IT ALL THEN BECOMES
A MATTER OF BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES...AND HOW QUICKLY THEY CAN
CAN GET LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW ALL THE WAY TO THE GROUND. THIS
WILL MOST LIKELY HAPPEN FIRST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL
AND WESTERN MA.

27/12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A BANDING SIGNATURE
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
DETAIL DIFFERENCES YET TO BE RESOLVED. THESE DIFFERENCES CONCERN
THE LOCATION...AND DURATION...OF THE BANDING SIGNATURE. MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...
FAVORS A POSITION BETWEEN WORCESTER COUNTY AND THE WESTERN
SUBURBS OF BOSTON. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE LATEST
RUNS OF THE HRRR...BRING THIS BAND AS FAR WEST AS THE CT RIVER
VALLEY. AT THIS POINT...THINKING THE BANDING MOST LIKELY STAYS
EAST OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY...WITH PREDOMINANTLY NORTH WINDS
PREVENTING MUCH OF A WESTWARD PUSH. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUDY
SKIES. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL SPEED UP THIS PROCESS LATER
TONIGHT AS WET-BULBING OCCURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST DURING THIS TIME.
THIS BRINGS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT...FURTHER DESTABILIZING THE
AIRMASS.

TEMPERATURES MARGINALLY FAVOR MAINLY SNOW...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRUCIAL TO SNOW
ACCUMULATION. COULD EVEN SEE A TRANSITION TO RAIN WITH JUST A
LITTLE UPWARD NUDGE. MODEL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED
WITH THIS LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE. THINKING 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IS
MORE THAN JUST A POSSIBILITY. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS EXCEED THAT
AMOUNT...PARTICULARLY IF THE BAND ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS
CENTRAL MA...NORTHEAST CT AND NORTHWEST RI. THESE ARE ALL
LOCATIONS WITH HIGHER TERRAIN. CONFIDENCE IN THE STORM TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SATURDAY IS MODERATE AT BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF DURING SATURDAY NIGHT
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* SPRING LIKE TEMPS MOVE IN FOR TUE-THU
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED

OVERVIEW...
12Z MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A TRANSITION OUT
OF AMPLIFIED TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY THIS WEEKEND
TO A FAST MOVING...ACTIVE STORM TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES TEND
WILL TO MODERATE OVER TIME...GETTING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...WITH FAST W-NW FLOW ALOFT AS H5
RIDGE BUILDS INTO WESTERN CANADA...WILL SEE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
IN THIS FLOW BRINGING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS.
TIMING THE INDIVIDUAL FEATURES IS TOUGH SO THIS LENDS TO BELOW
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

H5 TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST ALONG WITH INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NORTHERN EDGE OF LARGE HIGH PRES PASSING
ACROSS THE MID ATLC AND SE U.S. WILL BRING BRIEF DRYING BUT TEMPS
WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. BEYOND THIS...SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
WILL MOVE ACROSS WITH PERIODS OF SCT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY BEYOND.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT INVERTED TROUGH SITTING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS
TO SLOWLY PUSH SE DURING THE NIGHT AS OFFSHORE LOW PRES CONTINUES
TO MOVE AWAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN
SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM NW-SE THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO.

AS N-NE WIND INCREASING TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE E MA COAST SAT NIGHT ALONG WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY
FROM THE TROUGH...SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE SNOW THERE COULD
BE ENHANCED BY OCEAN EFFECT AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN OVER THE
RELATIVELY MILDER WATERS. THE 12Z NAM /AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE
GFS/ BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES WHICH WOULD SIGNAL
OCEAN EFFECT SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...OCEAN WATERS ARE AT THEIR
COLDEST LEVELS OF THE YEAR AND...THANKS TO ARCTIC AIR OF THE LAST
COUPLE OF MONTHS...SEA SURFACE TEMPS ARE RATHER LOW MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S IN CAPE COD BAY AND ALONG THE PLYMOUTH COUNTY
COASTLINE... RANGING TO THE LOWER 40S JUST OFF THE OUTER CAPE AND
NANTUCKET. WHEN FACTORING THIS INTO THE LAKE EFFECT TOOL ON
BUFKIT...THIS GIVES ONLY MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR THE OCEAN EFFECT.
NOT TOTALLY RULING OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF OCEAN EFFECT BANDS
SETTING UP ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE...BUT FURTHER W MAY HAVE A TOUGH
TIME. WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE THOUGH.

OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE UPPER TEENS WELL INLAND TO 25
TO 30 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WILL SEE DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRES RIDGE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES ACROSS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM W-E SUN
NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT PUSHES IN. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
REMAIN CHILLY...ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. TEMPS WILL
FALL BACK TO THE 20S EARLY SUN NIGHT...THEN HOLD STEADY OR RISE A
FEW DEGS AS CLOUDS MOVE IN AND SW WINDS PICK UP. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS MIGHT MAKE IT INTO THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES TOWARD
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND QUICKLY PUSHES
TOWARD THE REGION. MAY SEE SOME WIDELY SCT SNOW SHOWERS AS THE
PRECIP BEGINS MON MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...THEN
WILL CHANGE OVER TO SCT RAIN SHOWERS BY MIDDAY AS TEMPS RECOVER TO
THE 40S. THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY...WITH PRECIP TAPERING
OFF MONDAY EVENING. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S
MON NIGHT.

BRIEF RESPITE IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES ACROSS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL REACH THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S...THOUGH COOLER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WORKS OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
LATER TUE...REACHING THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY
WITH TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...THOUGH TIMING IS FAIRLY GOOD WITH PRECIP
ARRIVING TUE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TUE NIGHT. NOT A WHOLE
LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE SO WILL SEE SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WHICH WILL CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DURING TUE NIGHT.
EXPECT PRECIP TO TAPER OFF ACROSS WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE WED MORNING SO EXPECT PRECIP
TO TAPER OFF FROM W-E DURING THE MORNING. HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS FOR THE REMAINDER OF WED INTO WED NIGHT. MID LEVEL RIDGE
ALSO BUILDS E...SO WILL SEE TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON
WED.

HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THU NIGHT. TIMING OF NEXT
APPROACHING COMPLEX SYSTEM IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION THOUGH AS H5
TROUGH DIGS OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. GFS REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE ECWMF IS SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED. FOR
NOW...INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS FOR THU/THU NIGHT...THEN WENT WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW ON FRI. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE DURING
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES IN WITH MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR
VSBYS. TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHT TO CHANGE ANY
RAIN TO SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR. MOST OF THE IFR VSBYS SHOULD BE
CONCENTRATED OVER EASTERN MA...AND POSSIBLY RI. THIS CONTINUES
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE
30S WHICH SHOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN IN PLACES ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE THE INTERIOR REMAINS SNOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MODERATE
CONFIDENCE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. WILL SEE
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS...BEST CHANCE ACROSS
RI/E MA. MAY SEE BRIEF LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET IN ANY SNOW BANDS THAT MAY FORM ALONG THE COAST. SHOULD
SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM NW-SE FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD...THOUGH
MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER ON THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...VFR DROPPING TO LOCAL
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM W-E MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY TUE...THEN
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN DEVELOPING SCT RAIN SHOWERS TUE
AFTERNOON. PRECIP CHANGES TO SNOW SHOWERS TUE NIGHT...THEN BACK TO
RAIN SHOWERS BEFORE TAPERING OFF AROUND MIDDAY WED WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NORTH WINDS PICK UP AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND A DISTURBANCE
PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECTING WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 5-7 FEET. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON CAPE COD BAY AND
NANTUCKET SOUND AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER MA AND RI COASTAL
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...N-NE WINDS BRIEFLY DIMINISH EARLY SAT NIGHT THEN
INCREASE AGAIN. GUSTS TO 25-30 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE OPEN WATERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS UP TO 6-8 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT N WINDS TO SHIFT TO SW DURING
SUNDAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25-30 KT. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5
FT ON THE OPEN WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO W...CONTINUE TO GUST TO
25-30 KT HIGHEST ON THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5 FT. WINDS
MAY BEGIN TO DIMINISH TUE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...EXPECT N-NW WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
SEAS MAY LINGER AROUND 5 FT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 272132
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
532 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PUSH SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRES MAY APPROACH LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH MORE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED LIGHT RAINFALL CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY 40-45 DEGREES
REGION-WIDE.

27/12Z GUIDANCE SUITE HAS COME INTO REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOME 200 MILES FROM NANTUCKET...WE DO
STILL EXPECT AN INVERTED TROUGH TO ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

THERE REMAINS ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LIFT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC SNOW
GROWTH ZONE...SO WE DO EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP. IT ALL THEN BECOMES
A MATTER OF BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES...AND HOW QUICKLY THEY CAN
CAN GET LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW ALL THE WAY TO THE GROUND. THIS
WILL MOST LIKELY HAPPEN FIRST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL
AND WESTERN MA.

27/12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A BANDING SIGNATURE
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
DETAIL DIFFERENCES YET TO BE RESOLVED. THESE DIFFERENCES CONCERN
THE LOCATION...AND DURATION...OF THE BANDING SIGNATURE. MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...
FAVORS A POSITION BETWEEN WORCESTER COUNTY AND THE WESTERN
SUBURBS OF BOSTON. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE LATEST
RUNS OF THE HRRR...BRING THIS BAND AS FAR WEST AS THE CT RIVER
VALLEY. AT THIS POINT...THINKING THE BANDING MOST LIKELY STAYS
EAST OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY...WITH PREDOMINANTLY NORTH WINDS
PREVENTING MUCH OF A WESTWARD PUSH. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUDY
SKIES. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL SPEED UP THIS PROCESS LATER
TONIGHT AS WET-BULBING OCCURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST DURING THIS TIME.
THIS BRINGS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT...FURTHER DESTABILIZING THE
AIRMASS.

TEMPERATURES MARGINALLY FAVOR MAINLY SNOW...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRUCIAL TO SNOW
ACCUMULATION. COULD EVEN SEE A TRANSITION TO RAIN WITH JUST A
LITTLE UPWARD NUDGE. MODEL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED
WITH THIS LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE. THINKING 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IS
MORE THAN JUST A POSSIBILITY. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS EXCEED THAT
AMOUNT...PARTICULARLY IF THE BAND ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS
CENTRAL MA...NORTHEAST CT AND NORTHWEST RI. THESE ARE ALL
LOCATIONS WITH HIGHER TERRAIN. CONFIDENCE IN THE STORM TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SATURDAY IS MODERATE AT BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF DURING SATURDAY NIGHT
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* SPRING LIKE TEMPS MOVE IN FOR TUE-THU
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED

OVERVIEW...
12Z MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A TRANSITION OUT
OF AMPLIFIED TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY THIS WEEKEND
TO A FAST MOVING...ACTIVE STORM TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES TEND
WILL TO MODERATE OVER TIME...GETTING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...WITH FAST W-NW FLOW ALOFT AS H5
RIDGE BUILDS INTO WESTERN CANADA...WILL SEE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
IN THIS FLOW BRINGING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS.
TIMING THE INDIVIDUAL FEATURES IS TOUGH SO THIS LENDS TO BELOW
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

H5 TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST ALONG WITH INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NORTHERN EDGE OF LARGE HIGH PRES PASSING
ACROSS THE MID ATLC AND SE U.S. WILL BRING BRIEF DRYING BUT TEMPS
WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. BEYOND THIS...SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
WILL MOVE ACROSS WITH PERIODS OF SCT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY BEYOND.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT INVERTED TROUGH SITTING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS
TO SLOWLY PUSH SE DURING THE NIGHT AS OFFSHORE LOW PRES CONTINUES
TO MOVE AWAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN
SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM NW-SE THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO.

AS N-NE WIND INCREASING TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE E MA COAST SAT NIGHT ALONG WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY
FROM THE TROUGH...SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE SNOW THERE COULD
BE ENHANCED BY OCEAN EFFECT AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN OVER THE
RELATIVELY MILDER WATERS. THE 12Z NAM /AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE
GFS/ BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES WHICH WOULD SIGNAL
OCEAN EFFECT SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...OCEAN WATERS ARE AT THEIR
COLDEST LEVELS OF THE YEAR AND...THANKS TO ARCTIC AIR OF THE LAST
COUPLE OF MONTHS...SEA SURFACE TEMPS ARE RATHER LOW MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S IN CAPE COD BAY AND ALONG THE PLYMOUTH COUNTY
COASTLINE... RANGING TO THE LOWER 40S JUST OFF THE OUTER CAPE AND
NANTUCKET. WHEN FACTORING THIS INTO THE LAKE EFFECT TOOL ON
BUFKIT...THIS GIVES ONLY MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR THE OCEAN EFFECT.
NOT TOTALLY RULING OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF OCEAN EFFECT BANDS
SETTING UP ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE...BUT FURTHER W MAY HAVE A TOUGH
TIME. WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE THOUGH.

OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE UPPER TEENS WELL INLAND TO 25
TO 30 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WILL SEE DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRES RIDGE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES ACROSS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM W-E SUN
NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT PUSHES IN. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
REMAIN CHILLY...ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. TEMPS WILL
FALL BACK TO THE 20S EARLY SUN NIGHT...THEN HOLD STEADY OR RISE A
FEW DEGS AS CLOUDS MOVE IN AND SW WINDS PICK UP. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS MIGHT MAKE IT INTO THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES TOWARD
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND QUICKLY PUSHES
TOWARD THE REGION. MAY SEE SOME WIDELY SCT SNOW SHOWERS AS THE
PRECIP BEGINS MON MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...THEN
WILL CHANGE OVER TO SCT RAIN SHOWERS BY MIDDAY AS TEMPS RECOVER TO
THE 40S. THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY...WITH PRECIP TAPERING
OFF MONDAY EVENING. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S
MON NIGHT.

BRIEF RESPITE IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES ACROSS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL REACH THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S...THOUGH COOLER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WORKS OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
LATER TUE...REACHING THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY
WITH TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...THOUGH TIMING IS FAIRLY GOOD WITH PRECIP
ARRIVING TUE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TUE NIGHT. NOT A WHOLE
LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE SO WILL SEE SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WHICH WILL CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DURING TUE NIGHT.
EXPECT PRECIP TO TAPER OFF ACROSS WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE WED MORNING SO EXPECT PRECIP
TO TAPER OFF FROM W-E DURING THE MORNING. HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS FOR THE REMAINDER OF WED INTO WED NIGHT. MID LEVEL RIDGE
ALSO BUILDS E...SO WILL SEE TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON
WED.

HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THU NIGHT. TIMING OF NEXT
APPROACHING COMPLEX SYSTEM IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION THOUGH AS H5
TROUGH DIGS OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. GFS REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE ECWMF IS SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED. FOR
NOW...INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS FOR THU/THU NIGHT...THEN WENT WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW ON FRI. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE DURING
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES IN WITH MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR
VSBYS. TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHT TO CHANGE ANY
RAIN TO SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR. MOST OF THE IFR VSBYS SHOULD BE
CONCENTRATED OVER EASTERN MA...AND POSSIBLY RI. THIS CONTINUES
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE
30S WHICH SHOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN IN PLACES ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE THE INTERIOR REMAINS SNOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MODERATE
CONFIDENCE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. WILL SEE
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS...BEST CHANCE ACROSS
RI/E MA. MAY SEE BRIEF LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET IN ANY SNOW BANDS THAT MAY FORM ALONG THE COAST. SHOULD
SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM NW-SE FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD...THOUGH
MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER ON THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...VFR DROPPING TO LOCAL
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM W-E MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY TUE...THEN
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN DEVELOPING SCT RAIN SHOWERS TUE
AFTERNOON. PRECIP CHANGES TO SNOW SHOWERS TUE NIGHT...THEN BACK TO
RAIN SHOWERS BEFORE TAPERING OFF AROUND MIDDAY WED WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NORTH WINDS PICK UP AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND A DISTURBANCE
PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECTING WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 5-7 FEET. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON CAPE COD BAY AND
NANTUCKET SOUND AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER MA AND RI COASTAL
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...N-NE WINDS BRIEFLY DIMINISH EARLY SAT NIGHT THEN
INCREASE AGAIN. GUSTS TO 25-30 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE OPEN WATERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS UP TO 6-8 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT N WINDS TO SHIFT TO SW DURING
SUNDAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25-30 KT. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5
FT ON THE OPEN WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO W...CONTINUE TO GUST TO
25-30 KT HIGHEST ON THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5 FT. WINDS
MAY BEGIN TO DIMINISH TUE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...EXPECT N-NW WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
SEAS MAY LINGER AROUND 5 FT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 272132
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
532 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PUSH SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRES MAY APPROACH LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH MORE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED LIGHT RAINFALL CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY 40-45 DEGREES
REGION-WIDE.

27/12Z GUIDANCE SUITE HAS COME INTO REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOME 200 MILES FROM NANTUCKET...WE DO
STILL EXPECT AN INVERTED TROUGH TO ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

THERE REMAINS ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LIFT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC SNOW
GROWTH ZONE...SO WE DO EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP. IT ALL THEN BECOMES
A MATTER OF BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES...AND HOW QUICKLY THEY CAN
CAN GET LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW ALL THE WAY TO THE GROUND. THIS
WILL MOST LIKELY HAPPEN FIRST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL
AND WESTERN MA.

27/12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A BANDING SIGNATURE
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
DETAIL DIFFERENCES YET TO BE RESOLVED. THESE DIFFERENCES CONCERN
THE LOCATION...AND DURATION...OF THE BANDING SIGNATURE. MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...
FAVORS A POSITION BETWEEN WORCESTER COUNTY AND THE WESTERN
SUBURBS OF BOSTON. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE LATEST
RUNS OF THE HRRR...BRING THIS BAND AS FAR WEST AS THE CT RIVER
VALLEY. AT THIS POINT...THINKING THE BANDING MOST LIKELY STAYS
EAST OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY...WITH PREDOMINANTLY NORTH WINDS
PREVENTING MUCH OF A WESTWARD PUSH. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUDY
SKIES. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL SPEED UP THIS PROCESS LATER
TONIGHT AS WET-BULBING OCCURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST DURING THIS TIME.
THIS BRINGS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT...FURTHER DESTABILIZING THE
AIRMASS.

TEMPERATURES MARGINALLY FAVOR MAINLY SNOW...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRUCIAL TO SNOW
ACCUMULATION. COULD EVEN SEE A TRANSITION TO RAIN WITH JUST A
LITTLE UPWARD NUDGE. MODEL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED
WITH THIS LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE. THINKING 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IS
MORE THAN JUST A POSSIBILITY. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS EXCEED THAT
AMOUNT...PARTICULARLY IF THE BAND ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS
CENTRAL MA...NORTHEAST CT AND NORTHWEST RI. THESE ARE ALL
LOCATIONS WITH HIGHER TERRAIN. CONFIDENCE IN THE STORM TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SATURDAY IS MODERATE AT BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF DURING SATURDAY NIGHT
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* SPRING LIKE TEMPS MOVE IN FOR TUE-THU
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED

OVERVIEW...
12Z MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A TRANSITION OUT
OF AMPLIFIED TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY THIS WEEKEND
TO A FAST MOVING...ACTIVE STORM TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES TEND
WILL TO MODERATE OVER TIME...GETTING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...WITH FAST W-NW FLOW ALOFT AS H5
RIDGE BUILDS INTO WESTERN CANADA...WILL SEE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
IN THIS FLOW BRINGING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS.
TIMING THE INDIVIDUAL FEATURES IS TOUGH SO THIS LENDS TO BELOW
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

H5 TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST ALONG WITH INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NORTHERN EDGE OF LARGE HIGH PRES PASSING
ACROSS THE MID ATLC AND SE U.S. WILL BRING BRIEF DRYING BUT TEMPS
WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. BEYOND THIS...SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
WILL MOVE ACROSS WITH PERIODS OF SCT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY BEYOND.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT INVERTED TROUGH SITTING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS
TO SLOWLY PUSH SE DURING THE NIGHT AS OFFSHORE LOW PRES CONTINUES
TO MOVE AWAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN
SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM NW-SE THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO.

AS N-NE WIND INCREASING TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE E MA COAST SAT NIGHT ALONG WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY
FROM THE TROUGH...SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE SNOW THERE COULD
BE ENHANCED BY OCEAN EFFECT AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN OVER THE
RELATIVELY MILDER WATERS. THE 12Z NAM /AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE
GFS/ BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES WHICH WOULD SIGNAL
OCEAN EFFECT SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...OCEAN WATERS ARE AT THEIR
COLDEST LEVELS OF THE YEAR AND...THANKS TO ARCTIC AIR OF THE LAST
COUPLE OF MONTHS...SEA SURFACE TEMPS ARE RATHER LOW MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S IN CAPE COD BAY AND ALONG THE PLYMOUTH COUNTY
COASTLINE... RANGING TO THE LOWER 40S JUST OFF THE OUTER CAPE AND
NANTUCKET. WHEN FACTORING THIS INTO THE LAKE EFFECT TOOL ON
BUFKIT...THIS GIVES ONLY MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR THE OCEAN EFFECT.
NOT TOTALLY RULING OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF OCEAN EFFECT BANDS
SETTING UP ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE...BUT FURTHER W MAY HAVE A TOUGH
TIME. WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE THOUGH.

OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE UPPER TEENS WELL INLAND TO 25
TO 30 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WILL SEE DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRES RIDGE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES ACROSS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM W-E SUN
NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT PUSHES IN. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
REMAIN CHILLY...ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. TEMPS WILL
FALL BACK TO THE 20S EARLY SUN NIGHT...THEN HOLD STEADY OR RISE A
FEW DEGS AS CLOUDS MOVE IN AND SW WINDS PICK UP. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS MIGHT MAKE IT INTO THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES TOWARD
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND QUICKLY PUSHES
TOWARD THE REGION. MAY SEE SOME WIDELY SCT SNOW SHOWERS AS THE
PRECIP BEGINS MON MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...THEN
WILL CHANGE OVER TO SCT RAIN SHOWERS BY MIDDAY AS TEMPS RECOVER TO
THE 40S. THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY...WITH PRECIP TAPERING
OFF MONDAY EVENING. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S
MON NIGHT.

BRIEF RESPITE IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES ACROSS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL REACH THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S...THOUGH COOLER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WORKS OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
LATER TUE...REACHING THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY
WITH TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...THOUGH TIMING IS FAIRLY GOOD WITH PRECIP
ARRIVING TUE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TUE NIGHT. NOT A WHOLE
LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE SO WILL SEE SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WHICH WILL CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DURING TUE NIGHT.
EXPECT PRECIP TO TAPER OFF ACROSS WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE WED MORNING SO EXPECT PRECIP
TO TAPER OFF FROM W-E DURING THE MORNING. HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS FOR THE REMAINDER OF WED INTO WED NIGHT. MID LEVEL RIDGE
ALSO BUILDS E...SO WILL SEE TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON
WED.

HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THU NIGHT. TIMING OF NEXT
APPROACHING COMPLEX SYSTEM IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION THOUGH AS H5
TROUGH DIGS OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. GFS REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE ECWMF IS SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED. FOR
NOW...INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS FOR THU/THU NIGHT...THEN WENT WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW ON FRI. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE DURING
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES IN WITH MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR
VSBYS. TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHT TO CHANGE ANY
RAIN TO SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR. MOST OF THE IFR VSBYS SHOULD BE
CONCENTRATED OVER EASTERN MA...AND POSSIBLY RI. THIS CONTINUES
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE
30S WHICH SHOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN IN PLACES ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE THE INTERIOR REMAINS SNOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MODERATE
CONFIDENCE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. WILL SEE
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS...BEST CHANCE ACROSS
RI/E MA. MAY SEE BRIEF LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET IN ANY SNOW BANDS THAT MAY FORM ALONG THE COAST. SHOULD
SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM NW-SE FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD...THOUGH
MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER ON THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...VFR DROPPING TO LOCAL
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM W-E MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY TUE...THEN
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN DEVELOPING SCT RAIN SHOWERS TUE
AFTERNOON. PRECIP CHANGES TO SNOW SHOWERS TUE NIGHT...THEN BACK TO
RAIN SHOWERS BEFORE TAPERING OFF AROUND MIDDAY WED WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NORTH WINDS PICK UP AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND A DISTURBANCE
PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECTING WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 5-7 FEET. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON CAPE COD BAY AND
NANTUCKET SOUND AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER MA AND RI COASTAL
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...N-NE WINDS BRIEFLY DIMINISH EARLY SAT NIGHT THEN
INCREASE AGAIN. GUSTS TO 25-30 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE OPEN WATERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS UP TO 6-8 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT N WINDS TO SHIFT TO SW DURING
SUNDAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25-30 KT. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5
FT ON THE OPEN WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO W...CONTINUE TO GUST TO
25-30 KT HIGHEST ON THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5 FT. WINDS
MAY BEGIN TO DIMINISH TUE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...EXPECT N-NW WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
SEAS MAY LINGER AROUND 5 FT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 272132
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
532 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PUSH SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRES MAY APPROACH LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH MORE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED LIGHT RAINFALL CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY 40-45 DEGREES
REGION-WIDE.

27/12Z GUIDANCE SUITE HAS COME INTO REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOME 200 MILES FROM NANTUCKET...WE DO
STILL EXPECT AN INVERTED TROUGH TO ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

THERE REMAINS ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LIFT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC SNOW
GROWTH ZONE...SO WE DO EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP. IT ALL THEN BECOMES
A MATTER OF BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES...AND HOW QUICKLY THEY CAN
CAN GET LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW ALL THE WAY TO THE GROUND. THIS
WILL MOST LIKELY HAPPEN FIRST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL
AND WESTERN MA.

27/12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A BANDING SIGNATURE
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
DETAIL DIFFERENCES YET TO BE RESOLVED. THESE DIFFERENCES CONCERN
THE LOCATION...AND DURATION...OF THE BANDING SIGNATURE. MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...
FAVORS A POSITION BETWEEN WORCESTER COUNTY AND THE WESTERN
SUBURBS OF BOSTON. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE LATEST
RUNS OF THE HRRR...BRING THIS BAND AS FAR WEST AS THE CT RIVER
VALLEY. AT THIS POINT...THINKING THE BANDING MOST LIKELY STAYS
EAST OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY...WITH PREDOMINANTLY NORTH WINDS
PREVENTING MUCH OF A WESTWARD PUSH. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUDY
SKIES. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL SPEED UP THIS PROCESS LATER
TONIGHT AS WET-BULBING OCCURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST DURING THIS TIME.
THIS BRINGS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT...FURTHER DESTABILIZING THE
AIRMASS.

TEMPERATURES MARGINALLY FAVOR MAINLY SNOW...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRUCIAL TO SNOW
ACCUMULATION. COULD EVEN SEE A TRANSITION TO RAIN WITH JUST A
LITTLE UPWARD NUDGE. MODEL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED
WITH THIS LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE. THINKING 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IS
MORE THAN JUST A POSSIBILITY. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS EXCEED THAT
AMOUNT...PARTICULARLY IF THE BAND ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS
CENTRAL MA...NORTHEAST CT AND NORTHWEST RI. THESE ARE ALL
LOCATIONS WITH HIGHER TERRAIN. CONFIDENCE IN THE STORM TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SATURDAY IS MODERATE AT BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF DURING SATURDAY NIGHT
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* SPRING LIKE TEMPS MOVE IN FOR TUE-THU
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED

OVERVIEW...
12Z MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL A TRANSITION OUT
OF AMPLIFIED TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY THIS WEEKEND
TO A FAST MOVING...ACTIVE STORM TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES TEND
WILL TO MODERATE OVER TIME...GETTING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...WITH FAST W-NW FLOW ALOFT AS H5
RIDGE BUILDS INTO WESTERN CANADA...WILL SEE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
IN THIS FLOW BRINGING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS.
TIMING THE INDIVIDUAL FEATURES IS TOUGH SO THIS LENDS TO BELOW
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

H5 TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST ALONG WITH INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NORTHERN EDGE OF LARGE HIGH PRES PASSING
ACROSS THE MID ATLC AND SE U.S. WILL BRING BRIEF DRYING BUT TEMPS
WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. BEYOND THIS...SEVERAL SHORT WAVES
WILL MOVE ACROSS WITH PERIODS OF SCT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY BEYOND.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT INVERTED TROUGH SITTING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS
TO SLOWLY PUSH SE DURING THE NIGHT AS OFFSHORE LOW PRES CONTINUES
TO MOVE AWAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN
SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM NW-SE THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO.

AS N-NE WIND INCREASING TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE E MA COAST SAT NIGHT ALONG WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY
FROM THE TROUGH...SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE SNOW THERE COULD
BE ENHANCED BY OCEAN EFFECT AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN OVER THE
RELATIVELY MILDER WATERS. THE 12Z NAM /AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE
GFS/ BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES WHICH WOULD SIGNAL
OCEAN EFFECT SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...OCEAN WATERS ARE AT THEIR
COLDEST LEVELS OF THE YEAR AND...THANKS TO ARCTIC AIR OF THE LAST
COUPLE OF MONTHS...SEA SURFACE TEMPS ARE RATHER LOW MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S IN CAPE COD BAY AND ALONG THE PLYMOUTH COUNTY
COASTLINE... RANGING TO THE LOWER 40S JUST OFF THE OUTER CAPE AND
NANTUCKET. WHEN FACTORING THIS INTO THE LAKE EFFECT TOOL ON
BUFKIT...THIS GIVES ONLY MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR THE OCEAN EFFECT.
NOT TOTALLY RULING OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF OCEAN EFFECT BANDS
SETTING UP ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE...BUT FURTHER W MAY HAVE A TOUGH
TIME. WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE THOUGH.

OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE UPPER TEENS WELL INLAND TO 25
TO 30 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WILL SEE DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRES RIDGE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES ACROSS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM W-E SUN
NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT PUSHES IN. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
REMAIN CHILLY...ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. TEMPS WILL
FALL BACK TO THE 20S EARLY SUN NIGHT...THEN HOLD STEADY OR RISE A
FEW DEGS AS CLOUDS MOVE IN AND SW WINDS PICK UP. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS MIGHT MAKE IT INTO THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES TOWARD
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND QUICKLY PUSHES
TOWARD THE REGION. MAY SEE SOME WIDELY SCT SNOW SHOWERS AS THE
PRECIP BEGINS MON MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...THEN
WILL CHANGE OVER TO SCT RAIN SHOWERS BY MIDDAY AS TEMPS RECOVER TO
THE 40S. THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY...WITH PRECIP TAPERING
OFF MONDAY EVENING. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S
MON NIGHT.

BRIEF RESPITE IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES ACROSS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL REACH THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S...THOUGH COOLER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WORKS OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
LATER TUE...REACHING THE REGION TUE NIGHT. MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY
WITH TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...THOUGH TIMING IS FAIRLY GOOD WITH PRECIP
ARRIVING TUE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TUE NIGHT. NOT A WHOLE
LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE SO WILL SEE SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WHICH WILL CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DURING TUE NIGHT.
EXPECT PRECIP TO TAPER OFF ACROSS WESTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE WED MORNING SO EXPECT PRECIP
TO TAPER OFF FROM W-E DURING THE MORNING. HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS FOR THE REMAINDER OF WED INTO WED NIGHT. MID LEVEL RIDGE
ALSO BUILDS E...SO WILL SEE TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON
WED.

HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THU NIGHT. TIMING OF NEXT
APPROACHING COMPLEX SYSTEM IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION THOUGH AS H5
TROUGH DIGS OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. GFS REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE ECWMF IS SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED. FOR
NOW...INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS FOR THU/THU NIGHT...THEN WENT WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW ON FRI. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE DURING
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES IN WITH MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR
VSBYS. TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHT TO CHANGE ANY
RAIN TO SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR. MOST OF THE IFR VSBYS SHOULD BE
CONCENTRATED OVER EASTERN MA...AND POSSIBLY RI. THIS CONTINUES
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE
30S WHICH SHOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN IN PLACES ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE THE INTERIOR REMAINS SNOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MODERATE
CONFIDENCE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. WILL SEE
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS...BEST CHANCE ACROSS
RI/E MA. MAY SEE BRIEF LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET IN ANY SNOW BANDS THAT MAY FORM ALONG THE COAST. SHOULD
SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM NW-SE FROM MIDNIGHT ONWARD...THOUGH
MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER ON THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...VFR DROPPING TO LOCAL
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM W-E MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY TUE...THEN
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN DEVELOPING SCT RAIN SHOWERS TUE
AFTERNOON. PRECIP CHANGES TO SNOW SHOWERS TUE NIGHT...THEN BACK TO
RAIN SHOWERS BEFORE TAPERING OFF AROUND MIDDAY WED WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NORTH WINDS PICK UP AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND A DISTURBANCE
PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECTING WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 5-7 FEET. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON CAPE COD BAY AND
NANTUCKET SOUND AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER MA AND RI COASTAL
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...N-NE WINDS BRIEFLY DIMINISH EARLY SAT NIGHT THEN
INCREASE AGAIN. GUSTS TO 25-30 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE OPEN WATERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS UP TO 6-8 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT N WINDS TO SHIFT TO SW DURING
SUNDAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25-30 KT. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5
FT ON THE OPEN WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO W...CONTINUE TO GUST TO
25-30 KT HIGHEST ON THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5 FT. WINDS
MAY BEGIN TO DIMINISH TUE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...EXPECT N-NW WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
SEAS MAY LINGER AROUND 5 FT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 271930
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
330 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PUSH SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED LIGHT RAINFALL CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY 40-45 DEGREES
REGION-WIDE.

27/12Z GUIDANCE SUITE HAS COME INTO REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOME 200 MILES FROM NANTUCKET...WE DO
STILL EXPECT AN INVERTED TROUGH TO ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

THERE REMAINS ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LIFT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC SNOW
GROWTH ZONE...SO WE DO EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP. IT ALL THEN BECOMES
A MATTER OF BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES...AND HOW QUICKLY THEY CAN
CAN GET LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW ALL THE WAY TO THE GROUND. THIS
WILL MOST LIKELY HAPPEN FIRST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL
AND WESTERN MA.

27/12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A BANDING SIGNATURE
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
DETAIL DIFFERENCES YET TO BE RESOLVED. THESE DIFFERENCES CONCERN
THE LOCATION...AND DURATION...OF THE BANDING SIGNATURE. MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...
FAVORS A POSITION BETWEEN WORCESTER COUNTY AND THE WESTERN
SUBURBS OF BOSTON. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE LATEST
RUNS OF THE HRRR...BRING THIS BAND AS FAR WEST AS THE CT RIVER
VALLEY. AT THIS POINT...THINKING THE BANDING MOST LIKELY STAYS
EAST OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY...WITH PREDOMINANTLY NORTH WINDS
PREVENTING MUCH OF A WESTWARD PUSH. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUDY
SKIES. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL SPEED UP THIS PROCESS LATER
TONIGHT AS WET-BULBING OCCURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST DURING THIS TIME.
THIS BRINGS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT...FURTHER DESTABILIZING THE
AIRMASS.

TEMPERATURES MARGINALLY FAVOR MAINLY SNOW...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRUCIAL TO SNOW
ACCUMULATION. COULD EVEN SEE A TRANSITION TO RAIN WITH JUST A
LITTLE UPWARD NUDGE. MODEL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED
WITH THIS LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE. THINKING 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IS
MORE THAN JUST A POSSIBILITY. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS EXCEED THAT
AMOUNT...PARTICULARLY IF THE BAND ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS
CENTRAL MA...NORTHEAST CT AND NORTHWEST RI. THESE ARE ALL
LOCATIONS WITH HIGHER TERRAIN. CONFIDENCE IN THE STORM TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SATURDAY IS MODERATE AT BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* OCEAN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED

OVERVIEW...

UNFORTUNATELY AN ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. DEEP
TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY PUSHING THE
CAROLINA LOW SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK AND TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. A
QUICK MOVING RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY BEFORE
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH WITH THE FIRST MOVING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WITH
IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH BY LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL DAY 7 WHERE THEY ARE
SPLIT IN TIMING ON THE THURSDAY SYSTEM AS THE EC IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN THE AMPLIFIED GFS. STILL MESO SCALE DETAILS AND THERMAL
PROFILES TO WORK OUT BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS AROUND THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S WITH THE COOLEST SPOTS OUT WEST AS SKIES WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

MAIN FOCUS ON SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE SNOW POTENTIAL. NAM/GFS ARE VERY
BULLISH IN THEIR QPF COMPARED TO THE CONSERVATIVE EC. INVERTED
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS
SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. HOWEVER SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER LIFT ALOFT AND WITH DELTA TS NEAR 20 DEGREE
DIFFERENCE EXPECT OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP/ENHANCE
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES. WENT WITH HPC QPF TO PLAY
CONSERVATIVE BUT GENERALLY COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES ADDITIONAL FROM WHAT
FALLS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SET-UP
CLOSELY AS WE COULD HAVE A SURPRISE 3 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS SOMEWHERE
ALONG THE EAST MASS COASTLINE.

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OFFSHORE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH IN LATE IN THE DAY ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO EVENTUALLY
WARM INTO THE MID 40S. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING BUT
THEY WILL BEGIN TO CLOUD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL SOME SPREAD AMONGST THE GUIDANCE FOR
TIMING WITH THE GFS BEING 6HRS FASTER THEN REST OF THE GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE TRENDED TOWARDS EC/HPC ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF
SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT THE ONSET
LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY PRIOR TO
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. TIMING IS ALSO AN
ISSUE AS IF IT PASS OVERNIGHT THEN TEMPS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS...VS A DAYTIME PASSAGE. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF TIME TO
WATCH THIS SYSTEM BUT DEPENDING ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW...WE
COULD SEE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES IN WITH MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR
VSBYS. TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHT TO CHANGE ANY
RAIN TO SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR. MOST OF THE IFR VSBYS SHOULD BE
CONCENTRATED OVER EASTERN MA...AND POSSIBLY RI. THIS CONTINUES
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE
30S WHICH SHOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN IN PLACES ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE THE INTERIOR REMAINS SNOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. SCT MVFR ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF I-95 DUE TO OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. VSBYS MAY BE
REDUCE IF HEAVY BAND OF SNOW SETS-UP.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NORTH WINDS PICK UP AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND A DISTURBANCE
PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECTING WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 5-7 FEET. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON CAPE COD BAY AND
NANTUCKET SOUND AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER MA AND RI COASTAL
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO TUESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK. HOWEVER THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS AND
BUILD SEAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY
ALLOW FOR WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY SUBSIDE.  BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS
BACK TO SW AND WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL SEE SEAS
INCREASE IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS
UP ABOVE SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 271930
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
330 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PUSH SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED LIGHT RAINFALL CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY 40-45 DEGREES
REGION-WIDE.

27/12Z GUIDANCE SUITE HAS COME INTO REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOME 200 MILES FROM NANTUCKET...WE DO
STILL EXPECT AN INVERTED TROUGH TO ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

THERE REMAINS ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LIFT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC SNOW
GROWTH ZONE...SO WE DO EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP. IT ALL THEN BECOMES
A MATTER OF BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES...AND HOW QUICKLY THEY CAN
CAN GET LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW ALL THE WAY TO THE GROUND. THIS
WILL MOST LIKELY HAPPEN FIRST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL
AND WESTERN MA.

27/12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A BANDING SIGNATURE
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
DETAIL DIFFERENCES YET TO BE RESOLVED. THESE DIFFERENCES CONCERN
THE LOCATION...AND DURATION...OF THE BANDING SIGNATURE. MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...
FAVORS A POSITION BETWEEN WORCESTER COUNTY AND THE WESTERN
SUBURBS OF BOSTON. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE LATEST
RUNS OF THE HRRR...BRING THIS BAND AS FAR WEST AS THE CT RIVER
VALLEY. AT THIS POINT...THINKING THE BANDING MOST LIKELY STAYS
EAST OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY...WITH PREDOMINANTLY NORTH WINDS
PREVENTING MUCH OF A WESTWARD PUSH. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUDY
SKIES. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL SPEED UP THIS PROCESS LATER
TONIGHT AS WET-BULBING OCCURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST DURING THIS TIME.
THIS BRINGS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT...FURTHER DESTABILIZING THE
AIRMASS.

TEMPERATURES MARGINALLY FAVOR MAINLY SNOW...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRUCIAL TO SNOW
ACCUMULATION. COULD EVEN SEE A TRANSITION TO RAIN WITH JUST A
LITTLE UPWARD NUDGE. MODEL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED
WITH THIS LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE. THINKING 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IS
MORE THAN JUST A POSSIBILITY. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS EXCEED THAT
AMOUNT...PARTICULARLY IF THE BAND ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS
CENTRAL MA...NORTHEAST CT AND NORTHWEST RI. THESE ARE ALL
LOCATIONS WITH HIGHER TERRAIN. CONFIDENCE IN THE STORM TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SATURDAY IS MODERATE AT BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* OCEAN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED

OVERVIEW...

UNFORTUNATELY AN ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. DEEP
TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY PUSHING THE
CAROLINA LOW SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK AND TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. A
QUICK MOVING RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY BEFORE
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH WITH THE FIRST MOVING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WITH
IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH BY LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL DAY 7 WHERE THEY ARE
SPLIT IN TIMING ON THE THURSDAY SYSTEM AS THE EC IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN THE AMPLIFIED GFS. STILL MESO SCALE DETAILS AND THERMAL
PROFILES TO WORK OUT BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS AROUND THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S WITH THE COOLEST SPOTS OUT WEST AS SKIES WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

MAIN FOCUS ON SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE SNOW POTENTIAL. NAM/GFS ARE VERY
BULLISH IN THEIR QPF COMPARED TO THE CONSERVATIVE EC. INVERTED
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS
SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. HOWEVER SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER LIFT ALOFT AND WITH DELTA TS NEAR 20 DEGREE
DIFFERENCE EXPECT OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP/ENHANCE
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES. WENT WITH HPC QPF TO PLAY
CONSERVATIVE BUT GENERALLY COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES ADDITIONAL FROM WHAT
FALLS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SET-UP
CLOSELY AS WE COULD HAVE A SURPRISE 3 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS SOMEWHERE
ALONG THE EAST MASS COASTLINE.

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OFFSHORE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH IN LATE IN THE DAY ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO EVENTUALLY
WARM INTO THE MID 40S. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING BUT
THEY WILL BEGIN TO CLOUD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL SOME SPREAD AMONGST THE GUIDANCE FOR
TIMING WITH THE GFS BEING 6HRS FASTER THEN REST OF THE GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE TRENDED TOWARDS EC/HPC ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF
SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT THE ONSET
LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY PRIOR TO
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. TIMING IS ALSO AN
ISSUE AS IF IT PASS OVERNIGHT THEN TEMPS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS...VS A DAYTIME PASSAGE. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF TIME TO
WATCH THIS SYSTEM BUT DEPENDING ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW...WE
COULD SEE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES IN WITH MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR
VSBYS. TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHT TO CHANGE ANY
RAIN TO SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR. MOST OF THE IFR VSBYS SHOULD BE
CONCENTRATED OVER EASTERN MA...AND POSSIBLY RI. THIS CONTINUES
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE
30S WHICH SHOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN IN PLACES ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE THE INTERIOR REMAINS SNOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. SCT MVFR ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF I-95 DUE TO OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. VSBYS MAY BE
REDUCE IF HEAVY BAND OF SNOW SETS-UP.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NORTH WINDS PICK UP AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND A DISTURBANCE
PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECTING WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 5-7 FEET. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON CAPE COD BAY AND
NANTUCKET SOUND AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER MA AND RI COASTAL
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO TUESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK. HOWEVER THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS AND
BUILD SEAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY
ALLOW FOR WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY SUBSIDE.  BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS
BACK TO SW AND WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL SEE SEAS
INCREASE IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS
UP ABOVE SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 271930
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
330 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PUSH SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED LIGHT RAINFALL CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY 40-45 DEGREES
REGION-WIDE.

27/12Z GUIDANCE SUITE HAS COME INTO REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOME 200 MILES FROM NANTUCKET...WE DO
STILL EXPECT AN INVERTED TROUGH TO ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

THERE REMAINS ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LIFT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC SNOW
GROWTH ZONE...SO WE DO EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP. IT ALL THEN BECOMES
A MATTER OF BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES...AND HOW QUICKLY THEY CAN
CAN GET LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW ALL THE WAY TO THE GROUND. THIS
WILL MOST LIKELY HAPPEN FIRST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL
AND WESTERN MA.

27/12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A BANDING SIGNATURE
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
DETAIL DIFFERENCES YET TO BE RESOLVED. THESE DIFFERENCES CONCERN
THE LOCATION...AND DURATION...OF THE BANDING SIGNATURE. MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...
FAVORS A POSITION BETWEEN WORCESTER COUNTY AND THE WESTERN
SUBURBS OF BOSTON. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE LATEST
RUNS OF THE HRRR...BRING THIS BAND AS FAR WEST AS THE CT RIVER
VALLEY. AT THIS POINT...THINKING THE BANDING MOST LIKELY STAYS
EAST OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY...WITH PREDOMINANTLY NORTH WINDS
PREVENTING MUCH OF A WESTWARD PUSH. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUDY
SKIES. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL SPEED UP THIS PROCESS LATER
TONIGHT AS WET-BULBING OCCURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST DURING THIS TIME.
THIS BRINGS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT...FURTHER DESTABILIZING THE
AIRMASS.

TEMPERATURES MARGINALLY FAVOR MAINLY SNOW...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRUCIAL TO SNOW
ACCUMULATION. COULD EVEN SEE A TRANSITION TO RAIN WITH JUST A
LITTLE UPWARD NUDGE. MODEL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED
WITH THIS LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE. THINKING 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IS
MORE THAN JUST A POSSIBILITY. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS EXCEED THAT
AMOUNT...PARTICULARLY IF THE BAND ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS
CENTRAL MA...NORTHEAST CT AND NORTHWEST RI. THESE ARE ALL
LOCATIONS WITH HIGHER TERRAIN. CONFIDENCE IN THE STORM TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SATURDAY IS MODERATE AT BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* OCEAN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED

OVERVIEW...

UNFORTUNATELY AN ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. DEEP
TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY PUSHING THE
CAROLINA LOW SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK AND TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. A
QUICK MOVING RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY BEFORE
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH WITH THE FIRST MOVING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WITH
IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH BY LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL DAY 7 WHERE THEY ARE
SPLIT IN TIMING ON THE THURSDAY SYSTEM AS THE EC IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN THE AMPLIFIED GFS. STILL MESO SCALE DETAILS AND THERMAL
PROFILES TO WORK OUT BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS AROUND THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S WITH THE COOLEST SPOTS OUT WEST AS SKIES WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

MAIN FOCUS ON SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE SNOW POTENTIAL. NAM/GFS ARE VERY
BULLISH IN THEIR QPF COMPARED TO THE CONSERVATIVE EC. INVERTED
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS
SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. HOWEVER SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER LIFT ALOFT AND WITH DELTA TS NEAR 20 DEGREE
DIFFERENCE EXPECT OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP/ENHANCE
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES. WENT WITH HPC QPF TO PLAY
CONSERVATIVE BUT GENERALLY COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES ADDITIONAL FROM WHAT
FALLS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SET-UP
CLOSELY AS WE COULD HAVE A SURPRISE 3 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS SOMEWHERE
ALONG THE EAST MASS COASTLINE.

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OFFSHORE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH IN LATE IN THE DAY ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO EVENTUALLY
WARM INTO THE MID 40S. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING BUT
THEY WILL BEGIN TO CLOUD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL SOME SPREAD AMONGST THE GUIDANCE FOR
TIMING WITH THE GFS BEING 6HRS FASTER THEN REST OF THE GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE TRENDED TOWARDS EC/HPC ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF
SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT THE ONSET
LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY PRIOR TO
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. TIMING IS ALSO AN
ISSUE AS IF IT PASS OVERNIGHT THEN TEMPS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS...VS A DAYTIME PASSAGE. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF TIME TO
WATCH THIS SYSTEM BUT DEPENDING ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW...WE
COULD SEE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES IN WITH MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR
VSBYS. TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHT TO CHANGE ANY
RAIN TO SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR. MOST OF THE IFR VSBYS SHOULD BE
CONCENTRATED OVER EASTERN MA...AND POSSIBLY RI. THIS CONTINUES
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE
30S WHICH SHOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN IN PLACES ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE THE INTERIOR REMAINS SNOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. SCT MVFR ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF I-95 DUE TO OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. VSBYS MAY BE
REDUCE IF HEAVY BAND OF SNOW SETS-UP.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NORTH WINDS PICK UP AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND A DISTURBANCE
PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECTING WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 5-7 FEET. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON CAPE COD BAY AND
NANTUCKET SOUND AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER MA AND RI COASTAL
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO TUESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK. HOWEVER THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS AND
BUILD SEAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY
ALLOW FOR WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY SUBSIDE.  BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS
BACK TO SW AND WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL SEE SEAS
INCREASE IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS
UP ABOVE SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 271930
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
330 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PUSH SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED LIGHT RAINFALL CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY 40-45 DEGREES
REGION-WIDE.

27/12Z GUIDANCE SUITE HAS COME INTO REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOME 200 MILES FROM NANTUCKET...WE DO
STILL EXPECT AN INVERTED TROUGH TO ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

THERE REMAINS ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LIFT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC SNOW
GROWTH ZONE...SO WE DO EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP. IT ALL THEN BECOMES
A MATTER OF BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES...AND HOW QUICKLY THEY CAN
CAN GET LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW ALL THE WAY TO THE GROUND. THIS
WILL MOST LIKELY HAPPEN FIRST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL
AND WESTERN MA.

27/12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A BANDING SIGNATURE
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
DETAIL DIFFERENCES YET TO BE RESOLVED. THESE DIFFERENCES CONCERN
THE LOCATION...AND DURATION...OF THE BANDING SIGNATURE. MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...
FAVORS A POSITION BETWEEN WORCESTER COUNTY AND THE WESTERN
SUBURBS OF BOSTON. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE LATEST
RUNS OF THE HRRR...BRING THIS BAND AS FAR WEST AS THE CT RIVER
VALLEY. AT THIS POINT...THINKING THE BANDING MOST LIKELY STAYS
EAST OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY...WITH PREDOMINANTLY NORTH WINDS
PREVENTING MUCH OF A WESTWARD PUSH. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUDY
SKIES. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL SPEED UP THIS PROCESS LATER
TONIGHT AS WET-BULBING OCCURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST DURING THIS TIME.
THIS BRINGS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT...FURTHER DESTABILIZING THE
AIRMASS.

TEMPERATURES MARGINALLY FAVOR MAINLY SNOW...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRUCIAL TO SNOW
ACCUMULATION. COULD EVEN SEE A TRANSITION TO RAIN WITH JUST A
LITTLE UPWARD NUDGE. MODEL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED
WITH THIS LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE. THINKING 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IS
MORE THAN JUST A POSSIBILITY. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS EXCEED THAT
AMOUNT...PARTICULARLY IF THE BAND ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS
CENTRAL MA...NORTHEAST CT AND NORTHWEST RI. THESE ARE ALL
LOCATIONS WITH HIGHER TERRAIN. CONFIDENCE IN THE STORM TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SATURDAY IS MODERATE AT BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* OCEAN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED

OVERVIEW...

UNFORTUNATELY AN ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. DEEP
TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY PUSHING THE
CAROLINA LOW SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK AND TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. A
QUICK MOVING RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY BEFORE
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH WITH THE FIRST MOVING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WITH
IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH BY LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL DAY 7 WHERE THEY ARE
SPLIT IN TIMING ON THE THURSDAY SYSTEM AS THE EC IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN THE AMPLIFIED GFS. STILL MESO SCALE DETAILS AND THERMAL
PROFILES TO WORK OUT BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS AROUND THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S WITH THE COOLEST SPOTS OUT WEST AS SKIES WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

MAIN FOCUS ON SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE SNOW POTENTIAL. NAM/GFS ARE VERY
BULLISH IN THEIR QPF COMPARED TO THE CONSERVATIVE EC. INVERTED
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS
SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. HOWEVER SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER LIFT ALOFT AND WITH DELTA TS NEAR 20 DEGREE
DIFFERENCE EXPECT OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP/ENHANCE
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES. WENT WITH HPC QPF TO PLAY
CONSERVATIVE BUT GENERALLY COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES ADDITIONAL FROM WHAT
FALLS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SET-UP
CLOSELY AS WE COULD HAVE A SURPRISE 3 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS SOMEWHERE
ALONG THE EAST MASS COASTLINE.

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OFFSHORE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH IN LATE IN THE DAY ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO EVENTUALLY
WARM INTO THE MID 40S. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING BUT
THEY WILL BEGIN TO CLOUD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL SOME SPREAD AMONGST THE GUIDANCE FOR
TIMING WITH THE GFS BEING 6HRS FASTER THEN REST OF THE GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE TRENDED TOWARDS EC/HPC ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF
SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT THE ONSET
LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY PRIOR TO
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. TIMING IS ALSO AN
ISSUE AS IF IT PASS OVERNIGHT THEN TEMPS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS...VS A DAYTIME PASSAGE. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF TIME TO
WATCH THIS SYSTEM BUT DEPENDING ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW...WE
COULD SEE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES IN WITH MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR
VSBYS. TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHT TO CHANGE ANY
RAIN TO SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR. MOST OF THE IFR VSBYS SHOULD BE
CONCENTRATED OVER EASTERN MA...AND POSSIBLY RI. THIS CONTINUES
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE
30S WHICH SHOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN IN PLACES ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE THE INTERIOR REMAINS SNOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. SCT MVFR ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF I-95 DUE TO OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. VSBYS MAY BE
REDUCE IF HEAVY BAND OF SNOW SETS-UP.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NORTH WINDS PICK UP AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND A DISTURBANCE
PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECTING WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 5-7 FEET. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON CAPE COD BAY AND
NANTUCKET SOUND AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER MA AND RI COASTAL
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO TUESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK. HOWEVER THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS AND
BUILD SEAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY
ALLOW FOR WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY SUBSIDE.  BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS
BACK TO SW AND WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL SEE SEAS
INCREASE IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS
UP ABOVE SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 271438
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1038 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE HAS AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING ALONG IT UP THE
COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATER THIS
MORNING. A SECOND COLD FRONT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MOVE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND OFFSHORE TOWARD EVENING. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM UPDATE...

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE THIS MORNING. INTENSITY OF
SHOWERS HAS DIMINISHED SOME AS WELL. THIS HAS MANIFESTED INTO
HIGHER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WERE TO
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVED TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING...
AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING UP THE FRONT ALIGNS WELL WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. THIS JET MOVES OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES BY AFTERNOON...SO THIS AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE
OFF BY MIDDAY. TIMING FROM THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC WOULD
SUGGEST THE SHOWERS MOVE OFF AROUND MID MORNING...WHICH LINES UP
WELL WITH THE MODEL DYNAMICS.

THIS AFTERNOON...
AIRMASS DRIES OUT A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW THE DRIER AIR AROUND 700 MB WHILE MOIST AIR LINGERS BELOW 850
MB. SO WE EXPECT LINGERING CLOUDS BUT PCPN TAPERING OFF MOST
AREAS. EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS WHERE THERE
WOULD BE A LINGERING CHANCE. TEMPS AT 950 MB SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE 40S.

THIS EVENING...
ANOTHER UPPER JET MAX APPROACHES UP THE EAST COAST WITH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION. THIS ALONG WITH A WEAKENING
OF THE DRY LAYER WOULD SUGGEST AN RE-EXPANDING CHANCE OF PCPN IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE SHOWN CHANCE POPS RETURNING IN RI
AND CT BY 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST DURING THIS TIME.
THIS BRINGS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT DESTABILIZING THE AIRMASS. THE
UPPER JET INITIALLY PROVIDES UPPER VENTING AND LIFT TONIGHT. ALL
OF THIS SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF PCPN DURING THE NIGHT AND LINGERING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE. THEY ALSO SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING UP ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST. WE SAW THIS
DURING THE SNOW BLITZ LAST MONTH...INDICATING AN INCREASED CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS IN EASTERN MASS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS ARE MARGINAL. TEMPERATURES FAVOR SNOW
DURING THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH MORE MARGINAL FOR SNOW THAN OUR
PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE. ALL-IN-ALL MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE LESS THAN
AN INCH OF SNOW. BUT THE EXTRA SUPPORT FROM THIS TROUGH COULD
YIELD A SLUSHY 1-2 INCHES ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES OF 25-35 ARE
BORDERLINE FOR THIS ACCUMULATION...SO CONFIDENCE IN THOSE NUMBERS
IS LOW- MODERATE.

TEMPS WILL WARM A LITTLE DURING SATURDAY MORNING AND SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO CHANGE ANY SNOW OVER TO RAIN BY MIDDAY. TEMPS ALOFT
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* OCEAN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED

OVERVIEW...

UNFORTUNATELY AN ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. DEEP
TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY PUSHING THE
CAROLINA LOW SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK AND TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. A
QUICK MOVING RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY BEFORE
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH WITH THE FIRST MOVING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WITH
IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH BY LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL DAY 7 WHERE THEY ARE
SPLIT IN TIMING ON THE THURSDAY SYSTEM AS THE EC IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN THE AMPLIFIED GFS. STILL MESO SCALE DETAILS AND THERMAL
PROFILES TO WORK OUT BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS AROUND THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S WITH THE COOLEST SPOTS OUT WEST AS SKIES WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

MAIN FOCUS ON SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE SNOW POTENTIAL. NAM/GFS ARE VERY
BULLISH IN THEIR QPF COMPARED TO THE CONSERVATIVE EC. INVERTED
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS
SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. HOWEVER SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER LIFT ALOFT AND WITH DELTA TS NEAR 20 DEGREE
DIFFERENCE EXPECT OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP/ENHANCE
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES. WENT WITH HPC QPF TO PLAY
CONSERVATIVE BUT GENERALLY COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES ADDITIONAL FROM WHAT
FALLS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SET-UP
CLOSELY AS WE COULD HAVE A SURPRISE 3 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS SOMEWHERE
ALONG THE EAST MASS COASTLINE.

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OFFSHORE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH IN LATE IN THE DAY ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO EVENTUALLY
WARM INTO THE MID 40S. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING BUT
THEY WILL BEGIN TO CLOUD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL SOME SPREAD AMONGST THE GUIDANCE FOR
TIMING WITH THE GFS BEING 6HRS FASTER THEN REST OF THE GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE TRENDED TOWARDS EC/HPC ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF
SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT THE ONSET
LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY PRIOR TO
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. TIMING IS ALSO AN
ISSUE AS IF IT PASS OVERNIGHT THEN TEMPS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS...VS A DAYTIME PASSAGE. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF TIME TO
WATCH THIS SYSTEM BUT DEPENDING ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW...WE
COULD SEE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. OBSERVED
LIFR IN THE EAST AND MIXED VFR/MVFR ACROSS CT AND CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MA. EXPECTING THE LIFR TO LINGER OVER THE EAST THROUGH
MOST OF TODAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THIS EVENING WITH VFR IN THE
WEST AND MVFR CIGS IN THE EAST.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES IN WITH MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR
VSBYS. TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHT TO CHANGE ANY
RAIN TO SNOW. MOST OF THE IFR VSBYS SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED IN
EASTERN MASS AND POSSIBLY RI. THIS CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE 30S WHICH
SHOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE THE
INTERIOR REMAINS SNOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. SCT MVFR ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF I-95 DUE TO OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. VSBYS MAY BE
REDUCE IF HEAVY BAND OF SNOW SETS-UP.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...
NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS. LINGERING SEAS OF 5 TO 9 FEET ON THE OUTER
WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND/BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONTINUES ON THESE WATERS.

TONIGHT...NORTH WINDS PICK UP AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND A
DISTUBANCE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS
ON THE OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 5-6 FEET.

SATURDAY...CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS REACHING 25 KNOTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS. CONTINUED ROUGH SEAS 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON CAPE COD BAY AND
NANTUCKET SOUND AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND RI WATERS HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO TUESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK. HOWEVER THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS AND
BUILD SEAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY
ALLOW FOR WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY SUBSIDE.  BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS
BACK TO SW AND WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL SEE SEAS
INCREASE IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS
UP ABOVE SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 271438
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1038 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE HAS AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING ALONG IT UP THE
COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATER THIS
MORNING. A SECOND COLD FRONT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MOVE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND OFFSHORE TOWARD EVENING. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM UPDATE...

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE THIS MORNING. INTENSITY OF
SHOWERS HAS DIMINISHED SOME AS WELL. THIS HAS MANIFESTED INTO
HIGHER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WERE TO
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVED TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING...
AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING UP THE FRONT ALIGNS WELL WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. THIS JET MOVES OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES BY AFTERNOON...SO THIS AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE
OFF BY MIDDAY. TIMING FROM THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC WOULD
SUGGEST THE SHOWERS MOVE OFF AROUND MID MORNING...WHICH LINES UP
WELL WITH THE MODEL DYNAMICS.

THIS AFTERNOON...
AIRMASS DRIES OUT A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW THE DRIER AIR AROUND 700 MB WHILE MOIST AIR LINGERS BELOW 850
MB. SO WE EXPECT LINGERING CLOUDS BUT PCPN TAPERING OFF MOST
AREAS. EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS WHERE THERE
WOULD BE A LINGERING CHANCE. TEMPS AT 950 MB SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE 40S.

THIS EVENING...
ANOTHER UPPER JET MAX APPROACHES UP THE EAST COAST WITH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION. THIS ALONG WITH A WEAKENING
OF THE DRY LAYER WOULD SUGGEST AN RE-EXPANDING CHANCE OF PCPN IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE SHOWN CHANCE POPS RETURNING IN RI
AND CT BY 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST DURING THIS TIME.
THIS BRINGS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT DESTABILIZING THE AIRMASS. THE
UPPER JET INITIALLY PROVIDES UPPER VENTING AND LIFT TONIGHT. ALL
OF THIS SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF PCPN DURING THE NIGHT AND LINGERING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE. THEY ALSO SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING UP ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST. WE SAW THIS
DURING THE SNOW BLITZ LAST MONTH...INDICATING AN INCREASED CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS IN EASTERN MASS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS ARE MARGINAL. TEMPERATURES FAVOR SNOW
DURING THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH MORE MARGINAL FOR SNOW THAN OUR
PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE. ALL-IN-ALL MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE LESS THAN
AN INCH OF SNOW. BUT THE EXTRA SUPPORT FROM THIS TROUGH COULD
YIELD A SLUSHY 1-2 INCHES ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES OF 25-35 ARE
BORDERLINE FOR THIS ACCUMULATION...SO CONFIDENCE IN THOSE NUMBERS
IS LOW- MODERATE.

TEMPS WILL WARM A LITTLE DURING SATURDAY MORNING AND SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO CHANGE ANY SNOW OVER TO RAIN BY MIDDAY. TEMPS ALOFT
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* OCEAN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED

OVERVIEW...

UNFORTUNATELY AN ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. DEEP
TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY PUSHING THE
CAROLINA LOW SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK AND TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. A
QUICK MOVING RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY BEFORE
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH WITH THE FIRST MOVING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WITH
IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH BY LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL DAY 7 WHERE THEY ARE
SPLIT IN TIMING ON THE THURSDAY SYSTEM AS THE EC IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN THE AMPLIFIED GFS. STILL MESO SCALE DETAILS AND THERMAL
PROFILES TO WORK OUT BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS AROUND THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S WITH THE COOLEST SPOTS OUT WEST AS SKIES WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

MAIN FOCUS ON SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE SNOW POTENTIAL. NAM/GFS ARE VERY
BULLISH IN THEIR QPF COMPARED TO THE CONSERVATIVE EC. INVERTED
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS
SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. HOWEVER SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER LIFT ALOFT AND WITH DELTA TS NEAR 20 DEGREE
DIFFERENCE EXPECT OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP/ENHANCE
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES. WENT WITH HPC QPF TO PLAY
CONSERVATIVE BUT GENERALLY COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES ADDITIONAL FROM WHAT
FALLS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SET-UP
CLOSELY AS WE COULD HAVE A SURPRISE 3 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS SOMEWHERE
ALONG THE EAST MASS COASTLINE.

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OFFSHORE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH IN LATE IN THE DAY ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO EVENTUALLY
WARM INTO THE MID 40S. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING BUT
THEY WILL BEGIN TO CLOUD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL SOME SPREAD AMONGST THE GUIDANCE FOR
TIMING WITH THE GFS BEING 6HRS FASTER THEN REST OF THE GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE TRENDED TOWARDS EC/HPC ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF
SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT THE ONSET
LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY PRIOR TO
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. TIMING IS ALSO AN
ISSUE AS IF IT PASS OVERNIGHT THEN TEMPS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS...VS A DAYTIME PASSAGE. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF TIME TO
WATCH THIS SYSTEM BUT DEPENDING ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW...WE
COULD SEE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. OBSERVED
LIFR IN THE EAST AND MIXED VFR/MVFR ACROSS CT AND CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MA. EXPECTING THE LIFR TO LINGER OVER THE EAST THROUGH
MOST OF TODAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THIS EVENING WITH VFR IN THE
WEST AND MVFR CIGS IN THE EAST.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES IN WITH MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR
VSBYS. TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHT TO CHANGE ANY
RAIN TO SNOW. MOST OF THE IFR VSBYS SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED IN
EASTERN MASS AND POSSIBLY RI. THIS CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE 30S WHICH
SHOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE THE
INTERIOR REMAINS SNOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. SCT MVFR ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF I-95 DUE TO OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. VSBYS MAY BE
REDUCE IF HEAVY BAND OF SNOW SETS-UP.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...
NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS. LINGERING SEAS OF 5 TO 9 FEET ON THE OUTER
WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND/BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONTINUES ON THESE WATERS.

TONIGHT...NORTH WINDS PICK UP AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND A
DISTUBANCE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS
ON THE OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 5-6 FEET.

SATURDAY...CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS REACHING 25 KNOTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS. CONTINUED ROUGH SEAS 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON CAPE COD BAY AND
NANTUCKET SOUND AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND RI WATERS HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO TUESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK. HOWEVER THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS AND
BUILD SEAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY
ALLOW FOR WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY SUBSIDE.  BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS
BACK TO SW AND WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL SEE SEAS
INCREASE IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS
UP ABOVE SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 271438
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1038 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE HAS AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING ALONG IT UP THE
COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATER THIS
MORNING. A SECOND COLD FRONT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MOVE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND OFFSHORE TOWARD EVENING. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM UPDATE...

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE THIS MORNING. INTENSITY OF
SHOWERS HAS DIMINISHED SOME AS WELL. THIS HAS MANIFESTED INTO
HIGHER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WERE TO
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVED TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING...
AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING UP THE FRONT ALIGNS WELL WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. THIS JET MOVES OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES BY AFTERNOON...SO THIS AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE
OFF BY MIDDAY. TIMING FROM THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC WOULD
SUGGEST THE SHOWERS MOVE OFF AROUND MID MORNING...WHICH LINES UP
WELL WITH THE MODEL DYNAMICS.

THIS AFTERNOON...
AIRMASS DRIES OUT A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW THE DRIER AIR AROUND 700 MB WHILE MOIST AIR LINGERS BELOW 850
MB. SO WE EXPECT LINGERING CLOUDS BUT PCPN TAPERING OFF MOST
AREAS. EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS WHERE THERE
WOULD BE A LINGERING CHANCE. TEMPS AT 950 MB SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE 40S.

THIS EVENING...
ANOTHER UPPER JET MAX APPROACHES UP THE EAST COAST WITH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION. THIS ALONG WITH A WEAKENING
OF THE DRY LAYER WOULD SUGGEST AN RE-EXPANDING CHANCE OF PCPN IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE SHOWN CHANCE POPS RETURNING IN RI
AND CT BY 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST DURING THIS TIME.
THIS BRINGS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT DESTABILIZING THE AIRMASS. THE
UPPER JET INITIALLY PROVIDES UPPER VENTING AND LIFT TONIGHT. ALL
OF THIS SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF PCPN DURING THE NIGHT AND LINGERING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE. THEY ALSO SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING UP ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST. WE SAW THIS
DURING THE SNOW BLITZ LAST MONTH...INDICATING AN INCREASED CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS IN EASTERN MASS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS ARE MARGINAL. TEMPERATURES FAVOR SNOW
DURING THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH MORE MARGINAL FOR SNOW THAN OUR
PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE. ALL-IN-ALL MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE LESS THAN
AN INCH OF SNOW. BUT THE EXTRA SUPPORT FROM THIS TROUGH COULD
YIELD A SLUSHY 1-2 INCHES ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES OF 25-35 ARE
BORDERLINE FOR THIS ACCUMULATION...SO CONFIDENCE IN THOSE NUMBERS
IS LOW- MODERATE.

TEMPS WILL WARM A LITTLE DURING SATURDAY MORNING AND SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO CHANGE ANY SNOW OVER TO RAIN BY MIDDAY. TEMPS ALOFT
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* OCEAN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED

OVERVIEW...

UNFORTUNATELY AN ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. DEEP
TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY PUSHING THE
CAROLINA LOW SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK AND TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. A
QUICK MOVING RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY BEFORE
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH WITH THE FIRST MOVING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WITH
IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH BY LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL DAY 7 WHERE THEY ARE
SPLIT IN TIMING ON THE THURSDAY SYSTEM AS THE EC IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN THE AMPLIFIED GFS. STILL MESO SCALE DETAILS AND THERMAL
PROFILES TO WORK OUT BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS AROUND THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S WITH THE COOLEST SPOTS OUT WEST AS SKIES WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

MAIN FOCUS ON SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE SNOW POTENTIAL. NAM/GFS ARE VERY
BULLISH IN THEIR QPF COMPARED TO THE CONSERVATIVE EC. INVERTED
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS
SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. HOWEVER SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER LIFT ALOFT AND WITH DELTA TS NEAR 20 DEGREE
DIFFERENCE EXPECT OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP/ENHANCE
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES. WENT WITH HPC QPF TO PLAY
CONSERVATIVE BUT GENERALLY COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES ADDITIONAL FROM WHAT
FALLS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SET-UP
CLOSELY AS WE COULD HAVE A SURPRISE 3 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS SOMEWHERE
ALONG THE EAST MASS COASTLINE.

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OFFSHORE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH IN LATE IN THE DAY ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO EVENTUALLY
WARM INTO THE MID 40S. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING BUT
THEY WILL BEGIN TO CLOUD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL SOME SPREAD AMONGST THE GUIDANCE FOR
TIMING WITH THE GFS BEING 6HRS FASTER THEN REST OF THE GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE TRENDED TOWARDS EC/HPC ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF
SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT THE ONSET
LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY PRIOR TO
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. TIMING IS ALSO AN
ISSUE AS IF IT PASS OVERNIGHT THEN TEMPS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS...VS A DAYTIME PASSAGE. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF TIME TO
WATCH THIS SYSTEM BUT DEPENDING ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW...WE
COULD SEE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. OBSERVED
LIFR IN THE EAST AND MIXED VFR/MVFR ACROSS CT AND CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MA. EXPECTING THE LIFR TO LINGER OVER THE EAST THROUGH
MOST OF TODAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THIS EVENING WITH VFR IN THE
WEST AND MVFR CIGS IN THE EAST.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES IN WITH MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR
VSBYS. TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHT TO CHANGE ANY
RAIN TO SNOW. MOST OF THE IFR VSBYS SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED IN
EASTERN MASS AND POSSIBLY RI. THIS CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE 30S WHICH
SHOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE THE
INTERIOR REMAINS SNOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. SCT MVFR ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF I-95 DUE TO OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. VSBYS MAY BE
REDUCE IF HEAVY BAND OF SNOW SETS-UP.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...
NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS. LINGERING SEAS OF 5 TO 9 FEET ON THE OUTER
WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND/BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONTINUES ON THESE WATERS.

TONIGHT...NORTH WINDS PICK UP AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND A
DISTUBANCE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS
ON THE OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 5-6 FEET.

SATURDAY...CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS REACHING 25 KNOTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS. CONTINUED ROUGH SEAS 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON CAPE COD BAY AND
NANTUCKET SOUND AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND RI WATERS HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO TUESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK. HOWEVER THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS AND
BUILD SEAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY
ALLOW FOR WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY SUBSIDE.  BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS
BACK TO SW AND WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL SEE SEAS
INCREASE IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS
UP ABOVE SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 271438
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1038 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE HAS AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING ALONG IT UP THE
COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATER THIS
MORNING. A SECOND COLD FRONT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MOVE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND OFFSHORE TOWARD EVENING. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM UPDATE...

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE THIS MORNING. INTENSITY OF
SHOWERS HAS DIMINISHED SOME AS WELL. THIS HAS MANIFESTED INTO
HIGHER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WERE TO
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVED TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING...
AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING UP THE FRONT ALIGNS WELL WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. THIS JET MOVES OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES BY AFTERNOON...SO THIS AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE
OFF BY MIDDAY. TIMING FROM THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC WOULD
SUGGEST THE SHOWERS MOVE OFF AROUND MID MORNING...WHICH LINES UP
WELL WITH THE MODEL DYNAMICS.

THIS AFTERNOON...
AIRMASS DRIES OUT A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW THE DRIER AIR AROUND 700 MB WHILE MOIST AIR LINGERS BELOW 850
MB. SO WE EXPECT LINGERING CLOUDS BUT PCPN TAPERING OFF MOST
AREAS. EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS WHERE THERE
WOULD BE A LINGERING CHANCE. TEMPS AT 950 MB SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE 40S.

THIS EVENING...
ANOTHER UPPER JET MAX APPROACHES UP THE EAST COAST WITH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION. THIS ALONG WITH A WEAKENING
OF THE DRY LAYER WOULD SUGGEST AN RE-EXPANDING CHANCE OF PCPN IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE SHOWN CHANCE POPS RETURNING IN RI
AND CT BY 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST DURING THIS TIME.
THIS BRINGS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT DESTABILIZING THE AIRMASS. THE
UPPER JET INITIALLY PROVIDES UPPER VENTING AND LIFT TONIGHT. ALL
OF THIS SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF PCPN DURING THE NIGHT AND LINGERING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE. THEY ALSO SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING UP ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST. WE SAW THIS
DURING THE SNOW BLITZ LAST MONTH...INDICATING AN INCREASED CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS IN EASTERN MASS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS ARE MARGINAL. TEMPERATURES FAVOR SNOW
DURING THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH MORE MARGINAL FOR SNOW THAN OUR
PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE. ALL-IN-ALL MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE LESS THAN
AN INCH OF SNOW. BUT THE EXTRA SUPPORT FROM THIS TROUGH COULD
YIELD A SLUSHY 1-2 INCHES ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES OF 25-35 ARE
BORDERLINE FOR THIS ACCUMULATION...SO CONFIDENCE IN THOSE NUMBERS
IS LOW- MODERATE.

TEMPS WILL WARM A LITTLE DURING SATURDAY MORNING AND SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO CHANGE ANY SNOW OVER TO RAIN BY MIDDAY. TEMPS ALOFT
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* OCEAN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED

OVERVIEW...

UNFORTUNATELY AN ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. DEEP
TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY PUSHING THE
CAROLINA LOW SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK AND TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. A
QUICK MOVING RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY BEFORE
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH WITH THE FIRST MOVING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WITH
IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH BY LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL DAY 7 WHERE THEY ARE
SPLIT IN TIMING ON THE THURSDAY SYSTEM AS THE EC IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN THE AMPLIFIED GFS. STILL MESO SCALE DETAILS AND THERMAL
PROFILES TO WORK OUT BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS AROUND THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S WITH THE COOLEST SPOTS OUT WEST AS SKIES WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

MAIN FOCUS ON SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE SNOW POTENTIAL. NAM/GFS ARE VERY
BULLISH IN THEIR QPF COMPARED TO THE CONSERVATIVE EC. INVERTED
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS
SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. HOWEVER SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER LIFT ALOFT AND WITH DELTA TS NEAR 20 DEGREE
DIFFERENCE EXPECT OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP/ENHANCE
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES. WENT WITH HPC QPF TO PLAY
CONSERVATIVE BUT GENERALLY COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES ADDITIONAL FROM WHAT
FALLS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SET-UP
CLOSELY AS WE COULD HAVE A SURPRISE 3 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS SOMEWHERE
ALONG THE EAST MASS COASTLINE.

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OFFSHORE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH IN LATE IN THE DAY ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO EVENTUALLY
WARM INTO THE MID 40S. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING BUT
THEY WILL BEGIN TO CLOUD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL SOME SPREAD AMONGST THE GUIDANCE FOR
TIMING WITH THE GFS BEING 6HRS FASTER THEN REST OF THE GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE TRENDED TOWARDS EC/HPC ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF
SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT THE ONSET
LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY PRIOR TO
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. TIMING IS ALSO AN
ISSUE AS IF IT PASS OVERNIGHT THEN TEMPS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS...VS A DAYTIME PASSAGE. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF TIME TO
WATCH THIS SYSTEM BUT DEPENDING ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW...WE
COULD SEE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. OBSERVED
LIFR IN THE EAST AND MIXED VFR/MVFR ACROSS CT AND CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MA. EXPECTING THE LIFR TO LINGER OVER THE EAST THROUGH
MOST OF TODAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THIS EVENING WITH VFR IN THE
WEST AND MVFR CIGS IN THE EAST.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES IN WITH MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR
VSBYS. TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHT TO CHANGE ANY
RAIN TO SNOW. MOST OF THE IFR VSBYS SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED IN
EASTERN MASS AND POSSIBLY RI. THIS CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE 30S WHICH
SHOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE THE
INTERIOR REMAINS SNOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. SCT MVFR ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF I-95 DUE TO OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. VSBYS MAY BE
REDUCE IF HEAVY BAND OF SNOW SETS-UP.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...
NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS. LINGERING SEAS OF 5 TO 9 FEET ON THE OUTER
WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND/BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONTINUES ON THESE WATERS.

TONIGHT...NORTH WINDS PICK UP AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND A
DISTUBANCE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS
ON THE OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 5-6 FEET.

SATURDAY...CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS REACHING 25 KNOTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS. CONTINUED ROUGH SEAS 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON CAPE COD BAY AND
NANTUCKET SOUND AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND RI WATERS HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO TUESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK. HOWEVER THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS AND
BUILD SEAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY
ALLOW FOR WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY SUBSIDE.  BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS
BACK TO SW AND WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL SEE SEAS
INCREASE IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS
UP ABOVE SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 271055
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
655 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE HAS AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING ALONG IT UP THE
COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATER THIS
MORNING. A SECOND COLD FRONT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MOVE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND OFFSHORE TOWARD EVENING. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

700 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. THE
SHOWERS CAN BE HEAVY AT TIMES REDUCING VSBYS AND ALLOW FOR PONDING
ON ROADWAYS. MOTORIST SHOULD USE CAUTION IF TRAVELING. 1 HR QPF
AMOUNT RANGES BETWEEN 0.05-0.10 INCHES.

ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE REGION...SPOTTERS AS WELL AS
ASOS REPORT SNOW MIXING INTO THE RAIN. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE FROM NW TO SE THIS MORNING AS 850MB TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUE
TO COOL AND SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE NEAR THE MID 30S. IF THE PRECIP
IS HEAVY ENOUGH COULD SEE A QUICK COATING ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE BERKS AND ORH HILLS.

ASIDE FROM MINOR TWEAKS TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT TRENDS...BULK OF
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING...
AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING UP THE FRONT ALIGNS WELL WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. THIS JET MOVES OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES BY AFTERNOON...SO THIS AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE
OFF BY MIDDAY. TIMING FROM THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC WOULD
SUGGEST THE SHOWERS MOVE OFF AROUND MID MORNING...WHICH LINES UP
WELL WITH THE MODEL DYNAMICS.

THIS AFTERNOON...
AIRMASS DRIES OUT A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW THE DRIER AIR AROUND 700 MB WHILE MOIST AIR LINGERS BELOW 850
MB. SO WE EXPECT LINGERING CLOUDS BUT PCPN TAPERING OFF MOST
AREAS. EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS WHERE THERE
WOULD BE A LINGERING CHANCE. TEMPS AT 950 MB SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE 40S.

THIS EVENING...
ANOTHER UPPER JET MAX APPROACHES UP THE EAST COAST WITH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION. THIS ALONG WITH A WEAKENING
OF THE DRY LAYER WOULD SUGGEST AN RE-EXPANDING CHANCE OF PCPN IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE SHOWN CHANCE POPS RETURNING IN RI
AND CT BY 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST DURING THIS TIME.
THIS BRINGS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT DESTABILIZING THE AIRMASS. THE
UPPER JET INITIALLY PROVIDES UPPER VENTING AND LIFT TONIGHT. ALL
OF THIS SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF PCPN DURING THE NIGHT AND LINGERING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE. THEY ALSO SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING UP ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST. WE SAW THIS
DURING THE SNOW BLITZ LAST MONTH...INDICATING AN INCREASED CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS IN EASTERN MASS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS ARE MARGINAL. TEMPERATURES FAVOR SNOW
DURING THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH MORE MARGINAL FOR SNOW THAN OUR
PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE. ALL-IN-ALL MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE LESS THAN
AN INCH OF SNOW. BUT THE EXTRA SUPPORT FROM THIS TROUGH COULD
YIELD A SLUSHY 1-2 INCHES ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES OF 25-35 ARE
BORDERLINE FOR THIS ACCUMULATION...SO CONFIDENCE IN THOSE NUMBERS
IS LOW- MODERATE.

TEMPS WILL WARM A LITTLE DURING SATURDAY MORNING AND SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO CHANGE ANY SNOW OVER TO RAIN BY MIDDAY. TEMPS ALOFT
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* OCEAN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED

OVERVIEW...

UNFORTUNATELY AN ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. DEEP
TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY PUSHING THE
CAROLINA LOW SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK AND TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. A
QUICK MOVING RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY BEFORE
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH WITH THE FIRST MOVING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WITH
IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH BY LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL DAY 7 WHERE THEY ARE
SPLIT IN TIMING ON THE THURSDAY SYSTEM AS THE EC IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN THE AMPLIFIED GFS. STILL MESO SCALE DETAILS AND THERMAL
PROFILES TO WORK OUT BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS AROUND THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S WITH THE COOLEST SPOTS OUT WEST AS SKIES WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

MAIN FOCUS ON SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE SNOW POTENTIAL. NAM/GFS ARE VERY
BULLISH IN THEIR QPF COMPARED TO THE CONSERVATIVE EC. INVERTED
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS
SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. HOWEVER SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER LIFT ALOFT AND WITH DELTA TS NEAR 20 DEGREE
DIFFERENCE EXPECT OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP/ENHANCE
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES. WENT WITH HPC QPF TO PLAY
CONSERVATIVE BUT GENERALLY COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES ADDITIONAL FROM WHAT
FALLS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SET-UP
CLOSELY AS WE COULD HAVE A SURPRISE 3 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS SOMEWHERE
ALONG THE EAST MASS COASTLINE.

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OFFSHORE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH IN LATE IN THE DAY ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO EVENTUALLY
WARM INTO THE MID 40S. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING BUT
THEY WILL BEGIN TO CLOUD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL SOME SPREAD AMONGST THE GUIDANCE FOR
TIMING WITH THE GFS BEING 6HRS FASTER THEN REST OF THE GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE TRENDED TOWARDS EC/HPC ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF
SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT THE ONSET
LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY PRIOR TO
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. TIMING IS ALSO AN
ISSUE AS IF IT PASS OVERNIGHT THEN TEMPS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS...VS A DAYTIME PASSAGE. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF TIME TO
WATCH THIS SYSTEM BUT DEPENDING ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW...WE
COULD SEE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. OBSERVED
VALUES LIFR IN THE EAST AND MIXED VFR/MVFR IN CT AND WESTERN MASS.
EXPECT THE LIFR TO LINGER IN THE EAST WITH MVFR IN CT AND WESTERN
MASS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR IN THE WEST AND
MVFR CIGS IN THE EAST.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES IN WITH MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR
VSBYS. TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHT TO CHANGE ANY
RAIN TO SNOW. MOST OF THE IFR VSBYS SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED IN
EASTERN MASS AND POSSIBLY RI. THIS CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE 30S WHICH
SHOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE THE
INTERIOR REMAINS SNOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. SCT MVFR ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF I-95 DUE TO OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. VSBYS MAY BE
REDUCE IF HEAVY BAND OF SNOW SETS-UP.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...
NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. LINGERING SEAS
OF 5 TO 9 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND/BLOCK ISLAND
SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ON THESE WATERS.

TONIGHT...NORTH WINDS PICK UP AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND A
DISTUBANCE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS
ON THE OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 5-6 FEET.

SATURDAY...CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS REACHING 25 KNOTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS. CONTINUED ROUGH SEAS 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON CAPE COD BAY AND
NANTUCKET SOUND AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND RI WATERS HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO TUESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK. HOWEVER THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS AND
BUILD SEAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY
ALLOW FOR WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY SUBSIDE.  BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS
BACK TO SW AND WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL SEE SEAS
INCREASE IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS
UP ABOVE SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 271055
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
655 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE HAS AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING ALONG IT UP THE
COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATER THIS
MORNING. A SECOND COLD FRONT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MOVE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND OFFSHORE TOWARD EVENING. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

700 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. THE
SHOWERS CAN BE HEAVY AT TIMES REDUCING VSBYS AND ALLOW FOR PONDING
ON ROADWAYS. MOTORIST SHOULD USE CAUTION IF TRAVELING. 1 HR QPF
AMOUNT RANGES BETWEEN 0.05-0.10 INCHES.

ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE REGION...SPOTTERS AS WELL AS
ASOS REPORT SNOW MIXING INTO THE RAIN. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE FROM NW TO SE THIS MORNING AS 850MB TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUE
TO COOL AND SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE NEAR THE MID 30S. IF THE PRECIP
IS HEAVY ENOUGH COULD SEE A QUICK COATING ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE BERKS AND ORH HILLS.

ASIDE FROM MINOR TWEAKS TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT TRENDS...BULK OF
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING...
AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING UP THE FRONT ALIGNS WELL WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. THIS JET MOVES OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES BY AFTERNOON...SO THIS AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE
OFF BY MIDDAY. TIMING FROM THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC WOULD
SUGGEST THE SHOWERS MOVE OFF AROUND MID MORNING...WHICH LINES UP
WELL WITH THE MODEL DYNAMICS.

THIS AFTERNOON...
AIRMASS DRIES OUT A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW THE DRIER AIR AROUND 700 MB WHILE MOIST AIR LINGERS BELOW 850
MB. SO WE EXPECT LINGERING CLOUDS BUT PCPN TAPERING OFF MOST
AREAS. EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS WHERE THERE
WOULD BE A LINGERING CHANCE. TEMPS AT 950 MB SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE 40S.

THIS EVENING...
ANOTHER UPPER JET MAX APPROACHES UP THE EAST COAST WITH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION. THIS ALONG WITH A WEAKENING
OF THE DRY LAYER WOULD SUGGEST AN RE-EXPANDING CHANCE OF PCPN IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE SHOWN CHANCE POPS RETURNING IN RI
AND CT BY 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST DURING THIS TIME.
THIS BRINGS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT DESTABILIZING THE AIRMASS. THE
UPPER JET INITIALLY PROVIDES UPPER VENTING AND LIFT TONIGHT. ALL
OF THIS SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF PCPN DURING THE NIGHT AND LINGERING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE. THEY ALSO SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING UP ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST. WE SAW THIS
DURING THE SNOW BLITZ LAST MONTH...INDICATING AN INCREASED CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS IN EASTERN MASS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS ARE MARGINAL. TEMPERATURES FAVOR SNOW
DURING THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH MORE MARGINAL FOR SNOW THAN OUR
PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE. ALL-IN-ALL MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE LESS THAN
AN INCH OF SNOW. BUT THE EXTRA SUPPORT FROM THIS TROUGH COULD
YIELD A SLUSHY 1-2 INCHES ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES OF 25-35 ARE
BORDERLINE FOR THIS ACCUMULATION...SO CONFIDENCE IN THOSE NUMBERS
IS LOW- MODERATE.

TEMPS WILL WARM A LITTLE DURING SATURDAY MORNING AND SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO CHANGE ANY SNOW OVER TO RAIN BY MIDDAY. TEMPS ALOFT
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* OCEAN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED

OVERVIEW...

UNFORTUNATELY AN ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. DEEP
TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY PUSHING THE
CAROLINA LOW SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK AND TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. A
QUICK MOVING RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY BEFORE
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH WITH THE FIRST MOVING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WITH
IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH BY LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL DAY 7 WHERE THEY ARE
SPLIT IN TIMING ON THE THURSDAY SYSTEM AS THE EC IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN THE AMPLIFIED GFS. STILL MESO SCALE DETAILS AND THERMAL
PROFILES TO WORK OUT BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS AROUND THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S WITH THE COOLEST SPOTS OUT WEST AS SKIES WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

MAIN FOCUS ON SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE SNOW POTENTIAL. NAM/GFS ARE VERY
BULLISH IN THEIR QPF COMPARED TO THE CONSERVATIVE EC. INVERTED
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS
SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. HOWEVER SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER LIFT ALOFT AND WITH DELTA TS NEAR 20 DEGREE
DIFFERENCE EXPECT OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP/ENHANCE
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES. WENT WITH HPC QPF TO PLAY
CONSERVATIVE BUT GENERALLY COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES ADDITIONAL FROM WHAT
FALLS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SET-UP
CLOSELY AS WE COULD HAVE A SURPRISE 3 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS SOMEWHERE
ALONG THE EAST MASS COASTLINE.

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OFFSHORE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH IN LATE IN THE DAY ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO EVENTUALLY
WARM INTO THE MID 40S. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING BUT
THEY WILL BEGIN TO CLOUD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL SOME SPREAD AMONGST THE GUIDANCE FOR
TIMING WITH THE GFS BEING 6HRS FASTER THEN REST OF THE GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE TRENDED TOWARDS EC/HPC ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF
SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT THE ONSET
LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY PRIOR TO
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. TIMING IS ALSO AN
ISSUE AS IF IT PASS OVERNIGHT THEN TEMPS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS...VS A DAYTIME PASSAGE. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF TIME TO
WATCH THIS SYSTEM BUT DEPENDING ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW...WE
COULD SEE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. OBSERVED
VALUES LIFR IN THE EAST AND MIXED VFR/MVFR IN CT AND WESTERN MASS.
EXPECT THE LIFR TO LINGER IN THE EAST WITH MVFR IN CT AND WESTERN
MASS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR IN THE WEST AND
MVFR CIGS IN THE EAST.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES IN WITH MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR
VSBYS. TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHT TO CHANGE ANY
RAIN TO SNOW. MOST OF THE IFR VSBYS SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED IN
EASTERN MASS AND POSSIBLY RI. THIS CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE 30S WHICH
SHOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE THE
INTERIOR REMAINS SNOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. SCT MVFR ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF I-95 DUE TO OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. VSBYS MAY BE
REDUCE IF HEAVY BAND OF SNOW SETS-UP.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...
NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. LINGERING SEAS
OF 5 TO 9 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND/BLOCK ISLAND
SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ON THESE WATERS.

TONIGHT...NORTH WINDS PICK UP AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND A
DISTUBANCE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS
ON THE OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 5-6 FEET.

SATURDAY...CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS REACHING 25 KNOTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS. CONTINUED ROUGH SEAS 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON CAPE COD BAY AND
NANTUCKET SOUND AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND RI WATERS HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO TUESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK. HOWEVER THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS AND
BUILD SEAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY
ALLOW FOR WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY SUBSIDE.  BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS
BACK TO SW AND WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL SEE SEAS
INCREASE IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS
UP ABOVE SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 271055
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
655 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE HAS AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING ALONG IT UP THE
COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATER THIS
MORNING. A SECOND COLD FRONT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MOVE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND OFFSHORE TOWARD EVENING. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

700 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. THE
SHOWERS CAN BE HEAVY AT TIMES REDUCING VSBYS AND ALLOW FOR PONDING
ON ROADWAYS. MOTORIST SHOULD USE CAUTION IF TRAVELING. 1 HR QPF
AMOUNT RANGES BETWEEN 0.05-0.10 INCHES.

ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE REGION...SPOTTERS AS WELL AS
ASOS REPORT SNOW MIXING INTO THE RAIN. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE FROM NW TO SE THIS MORNING AS 850MB TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUE
TO COOL AND SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE NEAR THE MID 30S. IF THE PRECIP
IS HEAVY ENOUGH COULD SEE A QUICK COATING ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE BERKS AND ORH HILLS.

ASIDE FROM MINOR TWEAKS TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT TRENDS...BULK OF
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING...
AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING UP THE FRONT ALIGNS WELL WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. THIS JET MOVES OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES BY AFTERNOON...SO THIS AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE
OFF BY MIDDAY. TIMING FROM THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC WOULD
SUGGEST THE SHOWERS MOVE OFF AROUND MID MORNING...WHICH LINES UP
WELL WITH THE MODEL DYNAMICS.

THIS AFTERNOON...
AIRMASS DRIES OUT A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW THE DRIER AIR AROUND 700 MB WHILE MOIST AIR LINGERS BELOW 850
MB. SO WE EXPECT LINGERING CLOUDS BUT PCPN TAPERING OFF MOST
AREAS. EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS WHERE THERE
WOULD BE A LINGERING CHANCE. TEMPS AT 950 MB SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE 40S.

THIS EVENING...
ANOTHER UPPER JET MAX APPROACHES UP THE EAST COAST WITH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION. THIS ALONG WITH A WEAKENING
OF THE DRY LAYER WOULD SUGGEST AN RE-EXPANDING CHANCE OF PCPN IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE SHOWN CHANCE POPS RETURNING IN RI
AND CT BY 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST DURING THIS TIME.
THIS BRINGS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT DESTABILIZING THE AIRMASS. THE
UPPER JET INITIALLY PROVIDES UPPER VENTING AND LIFT TONIGHT. ALL
OF THIS SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF PCPN DURING THE NIGHT AND LINGERING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE. THEY ALSO SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING UP ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST. WE SAW THIS
DURING THE SNOW BLITZ LAST MONTH...INDICATING AN INCREASED CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS IN EASTERN MASS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS ARE MARGINAL. TEMPERATURES FAVOR SNOW
DURING THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH MORE MARGINAL FOR SNOW THAN OUR
PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE. ALL-IN-ALL MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE LESS THAN
AN INCH OF SNOW. BUT THE EXTRA SUPPORT FROM THIS TROUGH COULD
YIELD A SLUSHY 1-2 INCHES ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES OF 25-35 ARE
BORDERLINE FOR THIS ACCUMULATION...SO CONFIDENCE IN THOSE NUMBERS
IS LOW- MODERATE.

TEMPS WILL WARM A LITTLE DURING SATURDAY MORNING AND SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO CHANGE ANY SNOW OVER TO RAIN BY MIDDAY. TEMPS ALOFT
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* OCEAN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED

OVERVIEW...

UNFORTUNATELY AN ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. DEEP
TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY PUSHING THE
CAROLINA LOW SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK AND TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. A
QUICK MOVING RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY BEFORE
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH WITH THE FIRST MOVING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WITH
IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH BY LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL DAY 7 WHERE THEY ARE
SPLIT IN TIMING ON THE THURSDAY SYSTEM AS THE EC IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN THE AMPLIFIED GFS. STILL MESO SCALE DETAILS AND THERMAL
PROFILES TO WORK OUT BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS AROUND THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S WITH THE COOLEST SPOTS OUT WEST AS SKIES WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

MAIN FOCUS ON SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE SNOW POTENTIAL. NAM/GFS ARE VERY
BULLISH IN THEIR QPF COMPARED TO THE CONSERVATIVE EC. INVERTED
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS
SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. HOWEVER SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER LIFT ALOFT AND WITH DELTA TS NEAR 20 DEGREE
DIFFERENCE EXPECT OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP/ENHANCE
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES. WENT WITH HPC QPF TO PLAY
CONSERVATIVE BUT GENERALLY COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES ADDITIONAL FROM WHAT
FALLS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SET-UP
CLOSELY AS WE COULD HAVE A SURPRISE 3 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS SOMEWHERE
ALONG THE EAST MASS COASTLINE.

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OFFSHORE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH IN LATE IN THE DAY ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO EVENTUALLY
WARM INTO THE MID 40S. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING BUT
THEY WILL BEGIN TO CLOUD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL SOME SPREAD AMONGST THE GUIDANCE FOR
TIMING WITH THE GFS BEING 6HRS FASTER THEN REST OF THE GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE TRENDED TOWARDS EC/HPC ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF
SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT THE ONSET
LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY PRIOR TO
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. TIMING IS ALSO AN
ISSUE AS IF IT PASS OVERNIGHT THEN TEMPS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS...VS A DAYTIME PASSAGE. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF TIME TO
WATCH THIS SYSTEM BUT DEPENDING ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW...WE
COULD SEE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. OBSERVED
VALUES LIFR IN THE EAST AND MIXED VFR/MVFR IN CT AND WESTERN MASS.
EXPECT THE LIFR TO LINGER IN THE EAST WITH MVFR IN CT AND WESTERN
MASS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR IN THE WEST AND
MVFR CIGS IN THE EAST.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES IN WITH MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR
VSBYS. TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHT TO CHANGE ANY
RAIN TO SNOW. MOST OF THE IFR VSBYS SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED IN
EASTERN MASS AND POSSIBLY RI. THIS CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE 30S WHICH
SHOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE THE
INTERIOR REMAINS SNOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. SCT MVFR ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF I-95 DUE TO OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. VSBYS MAY BE
REDUCE IF HEAVY BAND OF SNOW SETS-UP.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...
NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. LINGERING SEAS
OF 5 TO 9 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND/BLOCK ISLAND
SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ON THESE WATERS.

TONIGHT...NORTH WINDS PICK UP AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND A
DISTUBANCE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS
ON THE OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 5-6 FEET.

SATURDAY...CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS REACHING 25 KNOTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS. CONTINUED ROUGH SEAS 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON CAPE COD BAY AND
NANTUCKET SOUND AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND RI WATERS HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO TUESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK. HOWEVER THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS AND
BUILD SEAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY
ALLOW FOR WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY SUBSIDE.  BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS
BACK TO SW AND WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL SEE SEAS
INCREASE IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS
UP ABOVE SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 271055
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
655 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE HAS AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING ALONG IT UP THE
COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATER THIS
MORNING. A SECOND COLD FRONT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MOVE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND OFFSHORE TOWARD EVENING. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

700 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. THE
SHOWERS CAN BE HEAVY AT TIMES REDUCING VSBYS AND ALLOW FOR PONDING
ON ROADWAYS. MOTORIST SHOULD USE CAUTION IF TRAVELING. 1 HR QPF
AMOUNT RANGES BETWEEN 0.05-0.10 INCHES.

ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE REGION...SPOTTERS AS WELL AS
ASOS REPORT SNOW MIXING INTO THE RAIN. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE FROM NW TO SE THIS MORNING AS 850MB TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUE
TO COOL AND SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE NEAR THE MID 30S. IF THE PRECIP
IS HEAVY ENOUGH COULD SEE A QUICK COATING ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE BERKS AND ORH HILLS.

ASIDE FROM MINOR TWEAKS TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT TRENDS...BULK OF
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING...
AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING UP THE FRONT ALIGNS WELL WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. THIS JET MOVES OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES BY AFTERNOON...SO THIS AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE
OFF BY MIDDAY. TIMING FROM THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC WOULD
SUGGEST THE SHOWERS MOVE OFF AROUND MID MORNING...WHICH LINES UP
WELL WITH THE MODEL DYNAMICS.

THIS AFTERNOON...
AIRMASS DRIES OUT A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW THE DRIER AIR AROUND 700 MB WHILE MOIST AIR LINGERS BELOW 850
MB. SO WE EXPECT LINGERING CLOUDS BUT PCPN TAPERING OFF MOST
AREAS. EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS WHERE THERE
WOULD BE A LINGERING CHANCE. TEMPS AT 950 MB SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE 40S.

THIS EVENING...
ANOTHER UPPER JET MAX APPROACHES UP THE EAST COAST WITH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION. THIS ALONG WITH A WEAKENING
OF THE DRY LAYER WOULD SUGGEST AN RE-EXPANDING CHANCE OF PCPN IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE SHOWN CHANCE POPS RETURNING IN RI
AND CT BY 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST DURING THIS TIME.
THIS BRINGS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT DESTABILIZING THE AIRMASS. THE
UPPER JET INITIALLY PROVIDES UPPER VENTING AND LIFT TONIGHT. ALL
OF THIS SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF PCPN DURING THE NIGHT AND LINGERING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE. THEY ALSO SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING UP ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST. WE SAW THIS
DURING THE SNOW BLITZ LAST MONTH...INDICATING AN INCREASED CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS IN EASTERN MASS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS ARE MARGINAL. TEMPERATURES FAVOR SNOW
DURING THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH MORE MARGINAL FOR SNOW THAN OUR
PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE. ALL-IN-ALL MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE LESS THAN
AN INCH OF SNOW. BUT THE EXTRA SUPPORT FROM THIS TROUGH COULD
YIELD A SLUSHY 1-2 INCHES ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES OF 25-35 ARE
BORDERLINE FOR THIS ACCUMULATION...SO CONFIDENCE IN THOSE NUMBERS
IS LOW- MODERATE.

TEMPS WILL WARM A LITTLE DURING SATURDAY MORNING AND SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO CHANGE ANY SNOW OVER TO RAIN BY MIDDAY. TEMPS ALOFT
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* OCEAN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED

OVERVIEW...

UNFORTUNATELY AN ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. DEEP
TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY PUSHING THE
CAROLINA LOW SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK AND TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. A
QUICK MOVING RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY BEFORE
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH WITH THE FIRST MOVING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WITH
IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH BY LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL DAY 7 WHERE THEY ARE
SPLIT IN TIMING ON THE THURSDAY SYSTEM AS THE EC IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN THE AMPLIFIED GFS. STILL MESO SCALE DETAILS AND THERMAL
PROFILES TO WORK OUT BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS AROUND THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S WITH THE COOLEST SPOTS OUT WEST AS SKIES WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

MAIN FOCUS ON SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE SNOW POTENTIAL. NAM/GFS ARE VERY
BULLISH IN THEIR QPF COMPARED TO THE CONSERVATIVE EC. INVERTED
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS
SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. HOWEVER SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER LIFT ALOFT AND WITH DELTA TS NEAR 20 DEGREE
DIFFERENCE EXPECT OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP/ENHANCE
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES. WENT WITH HPC QPF TO PLAY
CONSERVATIVE BUT GENERALLY COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES ADDITIONAL FROM WHAT
FALLS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SET-UP
CLOSELY AS WE COULD HAVE A SURPRISE 3 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS SOMEWHERE
ALONG THE EAST MASS COASTLINE.

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OFFSHORE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH IN LATE IN THE DAY ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO EVENTUALLY
WARM INTO THE MID 40S. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING BUT
THEY WILL BEGIN TO CLOUD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL SOME SPREAD AMONGST THE GUIDANCE FOR
TIMING WITH THE GFS BEING 6HRS FASTER THEN REST OF THE GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE TRENDED TOWARDS EC/HPC ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF
SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT THE ONSET
LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY PRIOR TO
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. TIMING IS ALSO AN
ISSUE AS IF IT PASS OVERNIGHT THEN TEMPS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS...VS A DAYTIME PASSAGE. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF TIME TO
WATCH THIS SYSTEM BUT DEPENDING ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW...WE
COULD SEE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. OBSERVED
VALUES LIFR IN THE EAST AND MIXED VFR/MVFR IN CT AND WESTERN MASS.
EXPECT THE LIFR TO LINGER IN THE EAST WITH MVFR IN CT AND WESTERN
MASS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR IN THE WEST AND
MVFR CIGS IN THE EAST.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES IN WITH MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR
VSBYS. TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHT TO CHANGE ANY
RAIN TO SNOW. MOST OF THE IFR VSBYS SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED IN
EASTERN MASS AND POSSIBLY RI. THIS CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE 30S WHICH
SHOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE THE
INTERIOR REMAINS SNOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. SCT MVFR ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF I-95 DUE TO OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. VSBYS MAY BE
REDUCE IF HEAVY BAND OF SNOW SETS-UP.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...
NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. LINGERING SEAS
OF 5 TO 9 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND/BLOCK ISLAND
SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ON THESE WATERS.

TONIGHT...NORTH WINDS PICK UP AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND A
DISTUBANCE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS
ON THE OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 5-6 FEET.

SATURDAY...CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS REACHING 25 KNOTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS. CONTINUED ROUGH SEAS 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON CAPE COD BAY AND
NANTUCKET SOUND AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND RI WATERS HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO TUESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK. HOWEVER THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS AND
BUILD SEAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY
ALLOW FOR WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY SUBSIDE.  BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS
BACK TO SW AND WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL SEE SEAS
INCREASE IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS
UP ABOVE SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 271055
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
655 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE HAS AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING ALONG IT UP THE
COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATER THIS
MORNING. A SECOND COLD FRONT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MOVE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND OFFSHORE TOWARD EVENING. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

700 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. THE
SHOWERS CAN BE HEAVY AT TIMES REDUCING VSBYS AND ALLOW FOR PONDING
ON ROADWAYS. MOTORIST SHOULD USE CAUTION IF TRAVELING. 1 HR QPF
AMOUNT RANGES BETWEEN 0.05-0.10 INCHES.

ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE REGION...SPOTTERS AS WELL AS
ASOS REPORT SNOW MIXING INTO THE RAIN. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE FROM NW TO SE THIS MORNING AS 850MB TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUE
TO COOL AND SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE NEAR THE MID 30S. IF THE PRECIP
IS HEAVY ENOUGH COULD SEE A QUICK COATING ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE BERKS AND ORH HILLS.

ASIDE FROM MINOR TWEAKS TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT TRENDS...BULK OF
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING...
AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING UP THE FRONT ALIGNS WELL WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. THIS JET MOVES OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES BY AFTERNOON...SO THIS AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE
OFF BY MIDDAY. TIMING FROM THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC WOULD
SUGGEST THE SHOWERS MOVE OFF AROUND MID MORNING...WHICH LINES UP
WELL WITH THE MODEL DYNAMICS.

THIS AFTERNOON...
AIRMASS DRIES OUT A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW THE DRIER AIR AROUND 700 MB WHILE MOIST AIR LINGERS BELOW 850
MB. SO WE EXPECT LINGERING CLOUDS BUT PCPN TAPERING OFF MOST
AREAS. EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS WHERE THERE
WOULD BE A LINGERING CHANCE. TEMPS AT 950 MB SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE 40S.

THIS EVENING...
ANOTHER UPPER JET MAX APPROACHES UP THE EAST COAST WITH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION. THIS ALONG WITH A WEAKENING
OF THE DRY LAYER WOULD SUGGEST AN RE-EXPANDING CHANCE OF PCPN IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE SHOWN CHANCE POPS RETURNING IN RI
AND CT BY 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST DURING THIS TIME.
THIS BRINGS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT DESTABILIZING THE AIRMASS. THE
UPPER JET INITIALLY PROVIDES UPPER VENTING AND LIFT TONIGHT. ALL
OF THIS SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF PCPN DURING THE NIGHT AND LINGERING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE. THEY ALSO SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING UP ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST. WE SAW THIS
DURING THE SNOW BLITZ LAST MONTH...INDICATING AN INCREASED CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS IN EASTERN MASS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS ARE MARGINAL. TEMPERATURES FAVOR SNOW
DURING THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH MORE MARGINAL FOR SNOW THAN OUR
PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE. ALL-IN-ALL MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE LESS THAN
AN INCH OF SNOW. BUT THE EXTRA SUPPORT FROM THIS TROUGH COULD
YIELD A SLUSHY 1-2 INCHES ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES OF 25-35 ARE
BORDERLINE FOR THIS ACCUMULATION...SO CONFIDENCE IN THOSE NUMBERS
IS LOW- MODERATE.

TEMPS WILL WARM A LITTLE DURING SATURDAY MORNING AND SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO CHANGE ANY SNOW OVER TO RAIN BY MIDDAY. TEMPS ALOFT
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* OCEAN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED

OVERVIEW...

UNFORTUNATELY AN ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. DEEP
TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY PUSHING THE
CAROLINA LOW SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK AND TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. A
QUICK MOVING RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY BEFORE
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH WITH THE FIRST MOVING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WITH
IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH BY LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL DAY 7 WHERE THEY ARE
SPLIT IN TIMING ON THE THURSDAY SYSTEM AS THE EC IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN THE AMPLIFIED GFS. STILL MESO SCALE DETAILS AND THERMAL
PROFILES TO WORK OUT BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS AROUND THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S WITH THE COOLEST SPOTS OUT WEST AS SKIES WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

MAIN FOCUS ON SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE SNOW POTENTIAL. NAM/GFS ARE VERY
BULLISH IN THEIR QPF COMPARED TO THE CONSERVATIVE EC. INVERTED
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS
SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. HOWEVER SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER LIFT ALOFT AND WITH DELTA TS NEAR 20 DEGREE
DIFFERENCE EXPECT OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP/ENHANCE
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES. WENT WITH HPC QPF TO PLAY
CONSERVATIVE BUT GENERALLY COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES ADDITIONAL FROM WHAT
FALLS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SET-UP
CLOSELY AS WE COULD HAVE A SURPRISE 3 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS SOMEWHERE
ALONG THE EAST MASS COASTLINE.

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OFFSHORE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH IN LATE IN THE DAY ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO EVENTUALLY
WARM INTO THE MID 40S. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING BUT
THEY WILL BEGIN TO CLOUD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL SOME SPREAD AMONGST THE GUIDANCE FOR
TIMING WITH THE GFS BEING 6HRS FASTER THEN REST OF THE GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE TRENDED TOWARDS EC/HPC ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF
SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT THE ONSET
LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY PRIOR TO
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. TIMING IS ALSO AN
ISSUE AS IF IT PASS OVERNIGHT THEN TEMPS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS...VS A DAYTIME PASSAGE. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF TIME TO
WATCH THIS SYSTEM BUT DEPENDING ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW...WE
COULD SEE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. OBSERVED
VALUES LIFR IN THE EAST AND MIXED VFR/MVFR IN CT AND WESTERN MASS.
EXPECT THE LIFR TO LINGER IN THE EAST WITH MVFR IN CT AND WESTERN
MASS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR IN THE WEST AND
MVFR CIGS IN THE EAST.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES IN WITH MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR
VSBYS. TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHT TO CHANGE ANY
RAIN TO SNOW. MOST OF THE IFR VSBYS SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED IN
EASTERN MASS AND POSSIBLY RI. THIS CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE 30S WHICH
SHOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE THE
INTERIOR REMAINS SNOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. SCT MVFR ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF I-95 DUE TO OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. VSBYS MAY BE
REDUCE IF HEAVY BAND OF SNOW SETS-UP.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...
NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. LINGERING SEAS
OF 5 TO 9 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND/BLOCK ISLAND
SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ON THESE WATERS.

TONIGHT...NORTH WINDS PICK UP AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND A
DISTUBANCE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS
ON THE OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 5-6 FEET.

SATURDAY...CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS REACHING 25 KNOTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS. CONTINUED ROUGH SEAS 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON CAPE COD BAY AND
NANTUCKET SOUND AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND RI WATERS HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO TUESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK. HOWEVER THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS AND
BUILD SEAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY
ALLOW FOR WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY SUBSIDE.  BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS
BACK TO SW AND WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL SEE SEAS
INCREASE IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS
UP ABOVE SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 271055
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
655 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE HAS AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING ALONG IT UP THE
COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATER THIS
MORNING. A SECOND COLD FRONT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MOVE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND OFFSHORE TOWARD EVENING. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

700 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. THE
SHOWERS CAN BE HEAVY AT TIMES REDUCING VSBYS AND ALLOW FOR PONDING
ON ROADWAYS. MOTORIST SHOULD USE CAUTION IF TRAVELING. 1 HR QPF
AMOUNT RANGES BETWEEN 0.05-0.10 INCHES.

ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE REGION...SPOTTERS AS WELL AS
ASOS REPORT SNOW MIXING INTO THE RAIN. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE FROM NW TO SE THIS MORNING AS 850MB TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUE
TO COOL AND SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE NEAR THE MID 30S. IF THE PRECIP
IS HEAVY ENOUGH COULD SEE A QUICK COATING ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE BERKS AND ORH HILLS.

ASIDE FROM MINOR TWEAKS TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT TRENDS...BULK OF
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING...
AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING UP THE FRONT ALIGNS WELL WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. THIS JET MOVES OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES BY AFTERNOON...SO THIS AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE
OFF BY MIDDAY. TIMING FROM THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC WOULD
SUGGEST THE SHOWERS MOVE OFF AROUND MID MORNING...WHICH LINES UP
WELL WITH THE MODEL DYNAMICS.

THIS AFTERNOON...
AIRMASS DRIES OUT A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW THE DRIER AIR AROUND 700 MB WHILE MOIST AIR LINGERS BELOW 850
MB. SO WE EXPECT LINGERING CLOUDS BUT PCPN TAPERING OFF MOST
AREAS. EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS WHERE THERE
WOULD BE A LINGERING CHANCE. TEMPS AT 950 MB SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE 40S.

THIS EVENING...
ANOTHER UPPER JET MAX APPROACHES UP THE EAST COAST WITH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION. THIS ALONG WITH A WEAKENING
OF THE DRY LAYER WOULD SUGGEST AN RE-EXPANDING CHANCE OF PCPN IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE SHOWN CHANCE POPS RETURNING IN RI
AND CT BY 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST DURING THIS TIME.
THIS BRINGS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT DESTABILIZING THE AIRMASS. THE
UPPER JET INITIALLY PROVIDES UPPER VENTING AND LIFT TONIGHT. ALL
OF THIS SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF PCPN DURING THE NIGHT AND LINGERING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE. THEY ALSO SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING UP ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST. WE SAW THIS
DURING THE SNOW BLITZ LAST MONTH...INDICATING AN INCREASED CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS IN EASTERN MASS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS ARE MARGINAL. TEMPERATURES FAVOR SNOW
DURING THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH MORE MARGINAL FOR SNOW THAN OUR
PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE. ALL-IN-ALL MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE LESS THAN
AN INCH OF SNOW. BUT THE EXTRA SUPPORT FROM THIS TROUGH COULD
YIELD A SLUSHY 1-2 INCHES ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES OF 25-35 ARE
BORDERLINE FOR THIS ACCUMULATION...SO CONFIDENCE IN THOSE NUMBERS
IS LOW- MODERATE.

TEMPS WILL WARM A LITTLE DURING SATURDAY MORNING AND SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO CHANGE ANY SNOW OVER TO RAIN BY MIDDAY. TEMPS ALOFT
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* OCEAN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED

OVERVIEW...

UNFORTUNATELY AN ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. DEEP
TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY PUSHING THE
CAROLINA LOW SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK AND TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. A
QUICK MOVING RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY BEFORE
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH WITH THE FIRST MOVING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WITH
IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH BY LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL DAY 7 WHERE THEY ARE
SPLIT IN TIMING ON THE THURSDAY SYSTEM AS THE EC IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN THE AMPLIFIED GFS. STILL MESO SCALE DETAILS AND THERMAL
PROFILES TO WORK OUT BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS AROUND THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S WITH THE COOLEST SPOTS OUT WEST AS SKIES WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

MAIN FOCUS ON SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE SNOW POTENTIAL. NAM/GFS ARE VERY
BULLISH IN THEIR QPF COMPARED TO THE CONSERVATIVE EC. INVERTED
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS
SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. HOWEVER SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER LIFT ALOFT AND WITH DELTA TS NEAR 20 DEGREE
DIFFERENCE EXPECT OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP/ENHANCE
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES. WENT WITH HPC QPF TO PLAY
CONSERVATIVE BUT GENERALLY COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES ADDITIONAL FROM WHAT
FALLS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SET-UP
CLOSELY AS WE COULD HAVE A SURPRISE 3 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS SOMEWHERE
ALONG THE EAST MASS COASTLINE.

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OFFSHORE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH IN LATE IN THE DAY ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO EVENTUALLY
WARM INTO THE MID 40S. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING BUT
THEY WILL BEGIN TO CLOUD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL SOME SPREAD AMONGST THE GUIDANCE FOR
TIMING WITH THE GFS BEING 6HRS FASTER THEN REST OF THE GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE TRENDED TOWARDS EC/HPC ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF
SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT THE ONSET
LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY PRIOR TO
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. TIMING IS ALSO AN
ISSUE AS IF IT PASS OVERNIGHT THEN TEMPS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS...VS A DAYTIME PASSAGE. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF TIME TO
WATCH THIS SYSTEM BUT DEPENDING ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW...WE
COULD SEE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. OBSERVED
VALUES LIFR IN THE EAST AND MIXED VFR/MVFR IN CT AND WESTERN MASS.
EXPECT THE LIFR TO LINGER IN THE EAST WITH MVFR IN CT AND WESTERN
MASS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR IN THE WEST AND
MVFR CIGS IN THE EAST.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES IN WITH MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR
VSBYS. TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHT TO CHANGE ANY
RAIN TO SNOW. MOST OF THE IFR VSBYS SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED IN
EASTERN MASS AND POSSIBLY RI. THIS CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE 30S WHICH
SHOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE THE
INTERIOR REMAINS SNOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. SCT MVFR ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF I-95 DUE TO OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. VSBYS MAY BE
REDUCE IF HEAVY BAND OF SNOW SETS-UP.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...
NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. LINGERING SEAS
OF 5 TO 9 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND/BLOCK ISLAND
SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ON THESE WATERS.

TONIGHT...NORTH WINDS PICK UP AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND A
DISTUBANCE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS
ON THE OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 5-6 FEET.

SATURDAY...CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS REACHING 25 KNOTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS. CONTINUED ROUGH SEAS 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON CAPE COD BAY AND
NANTUCKET SOUND AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND RI WATERS HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO TUESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK. HOWEVER THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS AND
BUILD SEAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY
ALLOW FOR WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY SUBSIDE.  BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS
BACK TO SW AND WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL SEE SEAS
INCREASE IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS
UP ABOVE SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 270814
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
414 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE HAS AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING ALONG IT UP THE
COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATER THIS
MORNING. A SECOND COLD FRONT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MOVE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND OFFSHORE TOWARD EVENING. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THIS MORNING...
AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING UP THE FRONT ALIGNS WELL WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. THIS JET MOVES OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES BY AFTERNOON...SO THIS AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE
OFF BY MIDDAY. TIMING FROM THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC WOULD
SUGGEST THE SHOWERS MOVE OFF AROUND MID MORNING...WHICH LINES UP
WELL WITH THE MODEL DYNAMICS.

THIS AFTERNOON...
AIRMASS DRIES OUT A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW THE DRIER AIR AROUND 700 MB WHILE MOIST AIR LINGERS BELOW 850
MB. SO WE EXPECT LINGERING CLOUDS BUT PCPN TAPERING OFF MOST
AREAS. EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS WHERE THERE
WOULD BE A LINGERING CHANCE. TEMPS AT 950 MB SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE 40S.

THIS EVENING...
ANOTHER UPPER JET MAX APPROACHES UP THE EAST COAST WITH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION. THIS ALONG WITH A WEAKENING
OF THE DRY LAYER WOULD SUGGEST AN RE-EXPANDING CHANCE OF PCPN IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE SHOWN CHANCE POPS RETURNING IN RI
AND CT BY 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST DURING THIS TIME.
THIS BRINGS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT DESTABILIZING THE AIRMASS. THE
UPPER JET INITIALLY PROVIDES UPPER VENTING AND LIFT TONIGHT. ALL
OF THIS SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF PCPN DURING THE NIGHT AND LINGERING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE. THEY ALSO SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING UP ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST. WE SAW THIS
DURING THE SNOW BLITZ LAST MONTH...INDICATING AN INCREASED CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS IN EASTERN MASS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS ARE MARGINAL. TEMPERTURES FAVOR SNOW DURING
THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH MORE MARGINAL FOR SNOW THAN OUR PREVIOUS
EXPERIENCE. ALL-IN-ALL MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE LESS THAN AN INCH OF
SNOW. BUT THE EXTRA SUPPORT FROM THIS TROUGH COULD YIELD A SLUSHY
1-2 INCHES ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES OF 25-35 ARE BORDERLINE FOR
THIS ACCUMULATION...SO CONFIDENCE IN THOSE NUMBERS IS LOW-
MODERATE.

TEMPS WILL WARM A LITTLE DURING SATURDAY MORNING AND SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO CHANGE ANY SNOW OVER TO RAIN BY MIDDAY. TEMPS ALOFT
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* OCEAN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED

OVERVIEW...

UNFORTUNATELY AN ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. DEEP
TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY PUSHING THE
CAROLINA LOW SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK AND TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. A
QUICK MOVING RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY BEFORE
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH WITH THE FIRST MOVING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WITH
IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH BY LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL DAY 7 WHERE THEY ARE
SPLIT IN TIMING ON THE THURSDAY SYSTEM AS THE EC IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN THE AMPLIFIED GFS. STILL MESO SCALE DETAILS AND THERMAL
PROFILES TO WORK OUT BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS AROUND THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S WITH THE COOLEST SPOTS OUT WEST AS SKIES WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

MAIN FOCUS ON SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE SNOW POTENTIAL. NAM/GFS ARE VERY
BULLISH IN THEIR QPF COMPARED TO THE CONSERVATIVE EC. INVERTED
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS
SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. HOWEVER SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER LIFT ALOFT AND WITH DELTA TS NEAR 20 DEGREE
DIFFERENCE EXPECT OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP/ENHANCE
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES. WENT WITH HPC QPF TO PLAY
CONSERVATIVE BUT GENERALLY COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES ADDITIONAL FROM WHAT
FALLS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SET-UP
CLOSELY AS WE COULD HAVE A SURPRISE 3 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS SOMEWHERE
ALONG THE EAST MASS COASTLINE.

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OFFSHORE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH IN LATE IN THE DAY ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO EVENTUALLY
WARM INTO THE MID 40S. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING BUT
THEY WILL BEGIN TO CLOUD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL SOME SPREAD AMONGST THE GUIDANCE FOR
TIMING WITH THE GFS BEING 6HRS FASTER THEN REST OF THE GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE TRENDED TOWARDS EC/HPC ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF
SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT THE ONSET
LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY PRIOR TO
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. TIMING IS ALSO AN
ISSUE AS IF IT PASS OVERNIGHT THEN TEMPS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS...VS A DAYTIME PASSAGE. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF TIME TO
WATCH THIS SYSTEM BUT DEPENDING ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW...WE
COULD SEE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. OBSERVED
VALUES LIFR IN THE EAST AND MIXED VFR/MVFR IN CT AND WESTERN MASS.
EXPECT THE LIFR TO LINGER IN THE EAST WITH MVFR IN CT AND WESTERN
MASS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR IN THE WEST AND
MVFR CIGS IN THE EAST.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES IN WITH MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR
VSBYS. TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHT TO CHANGE ANY
RAIN TO SNOW. MOST OF THE IFR VSBYS SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED IN
EASTERN MASS AND POSSIBLY RI. THIS CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE 30S WHICH
SHOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE THE
INTERIOR REMAINS SNOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. SCT MVFR ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF I-95 DUE TO OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. VSBYS MAY BE
REDUCE IF HEAVY BAND OF SNOW SETS-UP.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...
NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. LINGERING SEAS
OF 5 TO 9 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND/BLOCK ISLAND
SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ON THESE WATERS.

TONIGHT...NORTH WINDS PICK UP AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND A
DISTUBANCE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS
ON THE OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 5-6 FEET.

SATURDAY...CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS REACHING 25 KNOTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS. CONTINUED ROUGH SEAS 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON CAPE COD BAY AND
NANTUCKET SOUND AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND RI WATERS HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO TUESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK. HOWEVER THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS AND
BUILD SEAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY
ALLOW FOR WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY SUBSIDE.  BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS
BACK TO SW AND WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL SEE SEAS
INCREASE IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS
UP ABOVE SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 270814
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
414 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE HAS AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING ALONG IT UP THE
COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATER THIS
MORNING. A SECOND COLD FRONT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MOVE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND OFFSHORE TOWARD EVENING. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THIS MORNING...
AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING UP THE FRONT ALIGNS WELL WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. THIS JET MOVES OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES BY AFTERNOON...SO THIS AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE
OFF BY MIDDAY. TIMING FROM THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC WOULD
SUGGEST THE SHOWERS MOVE OFF AROUND MID MORNING...WHICH LINES UP
WELL WITH THE MODEL DYNAMICS.

THIS AFTERNOON...
AIRMASS DRIES OUT A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW THE DRIER AIR AROUND 700 MB WHILE MOIST AIR LINGERS BELOW 850
MB. SO WE EXPECT LINGERING CLOUDS BUT PCPN TAPERING OFF MOST
AREAS. EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS WHERE THERE
WOULD BE A LINGERING CHANCE. TEMPS AT 950 MB SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE 40S.

THIS EVENING...
ANOTHER UPPER JET MAX APPROACHES UP THE EAST COAST WITH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION. THIS ALONG WITH A WEAKENING
OF THE DRY LAYER WOULD SUGGEST AN RE-EXPANDING CHANCE OF PCPN IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE SHOWN CHANCE POPS RETURNING IN RI
AND CT BY 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST DURING THIS TIME.
THIS BRINGS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT DESTABILIZING THE AIRMASS. THE
UPPER JET INITIALLY PROVIDES UPPER VENTING AND LIFT TONIGHT. ALL
OF THIS SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF PCPN DURING THE NIGHT AND LINGERING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE. THEY ALSO SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING UP ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST. WE SAW THIS
DURING THE SNOW BLITZ LAST MONTH...INDICATING AN INCREASED CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS IN EASTERN MASS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS ARE MARGINAL. TEMPERTURES FAVOR SNOW DURING
THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH MORE MARGINAL FOR SNOW THAN OUR PREVIOUS
EXPERIENCE. ALL-IN-ALL MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE LESS THAN AN INCH OF
SNOW. BUT THE EXTRA SUPPORT FROM THIS TROUGH COULD YIELD A SLUSHY
1-2 INCHES ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES OF 25-35 ARE BORDERLINE FOR
THIS ACCUMULATION...SO CONFIDENCE IN THOSE NUMBERS IS LOW-
MODERATE.

TEMPS WILL WARM A LITTLE DURING SATURDAY MORNING AND SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO CHANGE ANY SNOW OVER TO RAIN BY MIDDAY. TEMPS ALOFT
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* OCEAN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED

OVERVIEW...

UNFORTUNATELY AN ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. DEEP
TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY PUSHING THE
CAROLINA LOW SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK AND TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. A
QUICK MOVING RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY BEFORE
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH WITH THE FIRST MOVING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WITH
IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH BY LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL DAY 7 WHERE THEY ARE
SPLIT IN TIMING ON THE THURSDAY SYSTEM AS THE EC IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN THE AMPLIFIED GFS. STILL MESO SCALE DETAILS AND THERMAL
PROFILES TO WORK OUT BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS AROUND THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S WITH THE COOLEST SPOTS OUT WEST AS SKIES WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

MAIN FOCUS ON SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE SNOW POTENTIAL. NAM/GFS ARE VERY
BULLISH IN THEIR QPF COMPARED TO THE CONSERVATIVE EC. INVERTED
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS
SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. HOWEVER SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER LIFT ALOFT AND WITH DELTA TS NEAR 20 DEGREE
DIFFERENCE EXPECT OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP/ENHANCE
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES. WENT WITH HPC QPF TO PLAY
CONSERVATIVE BUT GENERALLY COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES ADDITIONAL FROM WHAT
FALLS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SET-UP
CLOSELY AS WE COULD HAVE A SURPRISE 3 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS SOMEWHERE
ALONG THE EAST MASS COASTLINE.

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OFFSHORE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH IN LATE IN THE DAY ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO EVENTUALLY
WARM INTO THE MID 40S. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING BUT
THEY WILL BEGIN TO CLOUD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL SOME SPREAD AMONGST THE GUIDANCE FOR
TIMING WITH THE GFS BEING 6HRS FASTER THEN REST OF THE GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE TRENDED TOWARDS EC/HPC ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF
SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT THE ONSET
LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY PRIOR TO
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. TIMING IS ALSO AN
ISSUE AS IF IT PASS OVERNIGHT THEN TEMPS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS...VS A DAYTIME PASSAGE. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF TIME TO
WATCH THIS SYSTEM BUT DEPENDING ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW...WE
COULD SEE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. OBSERVED
VALUES LIFR IN THE EAST AND MIXED VFR/MVFR IN CT AND WESTERN MASS.
EXPECT THE LIFR TO LINGER IN THE EAST WITH MVFR IN CT AND WESTERN
MASS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR IN THE WEST AND
MVFR CIGS IN THE EAST.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES IN WITH MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR
VSBYS. TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHT TO CHANGE ANY
RAIN TO SNOW. MOST OF THE IFR VSBYS SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED IN
EASTERN MASS AND POSSIBLY RI. THIS CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE 30S WHICH
SHOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE THE
INTERIOR REMAINS SNOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. SCT MVFR ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF I-95 DUE TO OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. VSBYS MAY BE
REDUCE IF HEAVY BAND OF SNOW SETS-UP.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...
NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. LINGERING SEAS
OF 5 TO 9 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND/BLOCK ISLAND
SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ON THESE WATERS.

TONIGHT...NORTH WINDS PICK UP AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND A
DISTUBANCE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS
ON THE OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 5-6 FEET.

SATURDAY...CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS REACHING 25 KNOTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS. CONTINUED ROUGH SEAS 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON CAPE COD BAY AND
NANTUCKET SOUND AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND RI WATERS HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO TUESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK. HOWEVER THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS AND
BUILD SEAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY
ALLOW FOR WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY SUBSIDE.  BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS
BACK TO SW AND WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL SEE SEAS
INCREASE IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS
UP ABOVE SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 270814
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
414 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE HAS AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING ALONG IT UP THE
COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATER THIS
MORNING. A SECOND COLD FRONT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MOVE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND OFFSHORE TOWARD EVENING. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THIS MORNING...
AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING UP THE FRONT ALIGNS WELL WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. THIS JET MOVES OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES BY AFTERNOON...SO THIS AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE
OFF BY MIDDAY. TIMING FROM THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC WOULD
SUGGEST THE SHOWERS MOVE OFF AROUND MID MORNING...WHICH LINES UP
WELL WITH THE MODEL DYNAMICS.

THIS AFTERNOON...
AIRMASS DRIES OUT A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW THE DRIER AIR AROUND 700 MB WHILE MOIST AIR LINGERS BELOW 850
MB. SO WE EXPECT LINGERING CLOUDS BUT PCPN TAPERING OFF MOST
AREAS. EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS WHERE THERE
WOULD BE A LINGERING CHANCE. TEMPS AT 950 MB SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE 40S.

THIS EVENING...
ANOTHER UPPER JET MAX APPROACHES UP THE EAST COAST WITH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION. THIS ALONG WITH A WEAKENING
OF THE DRY LAYER WOULD SUGGEST AN RE-EXPANDING CHANCE OF PCPN IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE SHOWN CHANCE POPS RETURNING IN RI
AND CT BY 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST DURING THIS TIME.
THIS BRINGS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT DESTABILIZING THE AIRMASS. THE
UPPER JET INITIALLY PROVIDES UPPER VENTING AND LIFT TONIGHT. ALL
OF THIS SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF PCPN DURING THE NIGHT AND LINGERING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE. THEY ALSO SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING UP ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST. WE SAW THIS
DURING THE SNOW BLITZ LAST MONTH...INDICATING AN INCREASED CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS IN EASTERN MASS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS ARE MARGINAL. TEMPERTURES FAVOR SNOW DURING
THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH MORE MARGINAL FOR SNOW THAN OUR PREVIOUS
EXPERIENCE. ALL-IN-ALL MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE LESS THAN AN INCH OF
SNOW. BUT THE EXTRA SUPPORT FROM THIS TROUGH COULD YIELD A SLUSHY
1-2 INCHES ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES OF 25-35 ARE BORDERLINE FOR
THIS ACCUMULATION...SO CONFIDENCE IN THOSE NUMBERS IS LOW-
MODERATE.

TEMPS WILL WARM A LITTLE DURING SATURDAY MORNING AND SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO CHANGE ANY SNOW OVER TO RAIN BY MIDDAY. TEMPS ALOFT
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* OCEAN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED

OVERVIEW...

UNFORTUNATELY AN ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. DEEP
TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY PUSHING THE
CAROLINA LOW SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK AND TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. A
QUICK MOVING RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY BEFORE
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH WITH THE FIRST MOVING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WITH
IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH BY LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL DAY 7 WHERE THEY ARE
SPLIT IN TIMING ON THE THURSDAY SYSTEM AS THE EC IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN THE AMPLIFIED GFS. STILL MESO SCALE DETAILS AND THERMAL
PROFILES TO WORK OUT BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS AROUND THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S WITH THE COOLEST SPOTS OUT WEST AS SKIES WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

MAIN FOCUS ON SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE SNOW POTENTIAL. NAM/GFS ARE VERY
BULLISH IN THEIR QPF COMPARED TO THE CONSERVATIVE EC. INVERTED
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS
SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. HOWEVER SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER LIFT ALOFT AND WITH DELTA TS NEAR 20 DEGREE
DIFFERENCE EXPECT OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP/ENHANCE
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES. WENT WITH HPC QPF TO PLAY
CONSERVATIVE BUT GENERALLY COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES ADDITIONAL FROM WHAT
FALLS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SET-UP
CLOSELY AS WE COULD HAVE A SURPRISE 3 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS SOMEWHERE
ALONG THE EAST MASS COASTLINE.

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OFFSHORE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH IN LATE IN THE DAY ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO EVENTUALLY
WARM INTO THE MID 40S. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING BUT
THEY WILL BEGIN TO CLOUD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL SOME SPREAD AMONGST THE GUIDANCE FOR
TIMING WITH THE GFS BEING 6HRS FASTER THEN REST OF THE GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE TRENDED TOWARDS EC/HPC ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF
SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT THE ONSET
LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY PRIOR TO
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. TIMING IS ALSO AN
ISSUE AS IF IT PASS OVERNIGHT THEN TEMPS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS...VS A DAYTIME PASSAGE. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF TIME TO
WATCH THIS SYSTEM BUT DEPENDING ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW...WE
COULD SEE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. OBSERVED
VALUES LIFR IN THE EAST AND MIXED VFR/MVFR IN CT AND WESTERN MASS.
EXPECT THE LIFR TO LINGER IN THE EAST WITH MVFR IN CT AND WESTERN
MASS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR IN THE WEST AND
MVFR CIGS IN THE EAST.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES IN WITH MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR
VSBYS. TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHT TO CHANGE ANY
RAIN TO SNOW. MOST OF THE IFR VSBYS SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED IN
EASTERN MASS AND POSSIBLY RI. THIS CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE 30S WHICH
SHOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE THE
INTERIOR REMAINS SNOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. SCT MVFR ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF I-95 DUE TO OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. VSBYS MAY BE
REDUCE IF HEAVY BAND OF SNOW SETS-UP.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...
NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. LINGERING SEAS
OF 5 TO 9 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND/BLOCK ISLAND
SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ON THESE WATERS.

TONIGHT...NORTH WINDS PICK UP AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND A
DISTUBANCE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS
ON THE OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 5-6 FEET.

SATURDAY...CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS REACHING 25 KNOTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS. CONTINUED ROUGH SEAS 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON CAPE COD BAY AND
NANTUCKET SOUND AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND RI WATERS HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO TUESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK. HOWEVER THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS AND
BUILD SEAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY
ALLOW FOR WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY SUBSIDE.  BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS
BACK TO SW AND WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL SEE SEAS
INCREASE IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS
UP ABOVE SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 270814
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
414 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE HAS AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING ALONG IT UP THE
COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATER THIS
MORNING. A SECOND COLD FRONT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MOVE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND OFFSHORE TOWARD EVENING. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THIS MORNING...
AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING UP THE FRONT ALIGNS WELL WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. THIS JET MOVES OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES BY AFTERNOON...SO THIS AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE
OFF BY MIDDAY. TIMING FROM THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC WOULD
SUGGEST THE SHOWERS MOVE OFF AROUND MID MORNING...WHICH LINES UP
WELL WITH THE MODEL DYNAMICS.

THIS AFTERNOON...
AIRMASS DRIES OUT A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW THE DRIER AIR AROUND 700 MB WHILE MOIST AIR LINGERS BELOW 850
MB. SO WE EXPECT LINGERING CLOUDS BUT PCPN TAPERING OFF MOST
AREAS. EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS WHERE THERE
WOULD BE A LINGERING CHANCE. TEMPS AT 950 MB SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE 40S.

THIS EVENING...
ANOTHER UPPER JET MAX APPROACHES UP THE EAST COAST WITH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION. THIS ALONG WITH A WEAKENING
OF THE DRY LAYER WOULD SUGGEST AN RE-EXPANDING CHANCE OF PCPN IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE SHOWN CHANCE POPS RETURNING IN RI
AND CT BY 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST DURING THIS TIME.
THIS BRINGS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT DESTABILIZING THE AIRMASS. THE
UPPER JET INITIALLY PROVIDES UPPER VENTING AND LIFT TONIGHT. ALL
OF THIS SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF PCPN DURING THE NIGHT AND LINGERING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE. THEY ALSO SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING UP ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST. WE SAW THIS
DURING THE SNOW BLITZ LAST MONTH...INDICATING AN INCREASED CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS IN EASTERN MASS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS ARE MARGINAL. TEMPERTURES FAVOR SNOW DURING
THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH MORE MARGINAL FOR SNOW THAN OUR PREVIOUS
EXPERIENCE. ALL-IN-ALL MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE LESS THAN AN INCH OF
SNOW. BUT THE EXTRA SUPPORT FROM THIS TROUGH COULD YIELD A SLUSHY
1-2 INCHES ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES OF 25-35 ARE BORDERLINE FOR
THIS ACCUMULATION...SO CONFIDENCE IN THOSE NUMBERS IS LOW-
MODERATE.

TEMPS WILL WARM A LITTLE DURING SATURDAY MORNING AND SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO CHANGE ANY SNOW OVER TO RAIN BY MIDDAY. TEMPS ALOFT
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* OCEAN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED

OVERVIEW...

UNFORTUNATELY AN ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. DEEP
TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY PUSHING THE
CAROLINA LOW SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK AND TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. A
QUICK MOVING RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY BEFORE
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH WITH THE FIRST MOVING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WITH
IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH BY LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL DAY 7 WHERE THEY ARE
SPLIT IN TIMING ON THE THURSDAY SYSTEM AS THE EC IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN THE AMPLIFIED GFS. STILL MESO SCALE DETAILS AND THERMAL
PROFILES TO WORK OUT BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS AROUND THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S WITH THE COOLEST SPOTS OUT WEST AS SKIES WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

MAIN FOCUS ON SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE SNOW POTENTIAL. NAM/GFS ARE VERY
BULLISH IN THEIR QPF COMPARED TO THE CONSERVATIVE EC. INVERTED
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS
SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. HOWEVER SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER LIFT ALOFT AND WITH DELTA TS NEAR 20 DEGREE
DIFFERENCE EXPECT OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP/ENHANCE
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES. WENT WITH HPC QPF TO PLAY
CONSERVATIVE BUT GENERALLY COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES ADDITIONAL FROM WHAT
FALLS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SET-UP
CLOSELY AS WE COULD HAVE A SURPRISE 3 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS SOMEWHERE
ALONG THE EAST MASS COASTLINE.

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OFFSHORE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH IN LATE IN THE DAY ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO EVENTUALLY
WARM INTO THE MID 40S. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING BUT
THEY WILL BEGIN TO CLOUD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL SOME SPREAD AMONGST THE GUIDANCE FOR
TIMING WITH THE GFS BEING 6HRS FASTER THEN REST OF THE GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE TRENDED TOWARDS EC/HPC ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF
SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT THE ONSET
LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY PRIOR TO
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. TIMING IS ALSO AN
ISSUE AS IF IT PASS OVERNIGHT THEN TEMPS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS...VS A DAYTIME PASSAGE. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF TIME TO
WATCH THIS SYSTEM BUT DEPENDING ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW...WE
COULD SEE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. OBSERVED
VALUES LIFR IN THE EAST AND MIXED VFR/MVFR IN CT AND WESTERN MASS.
EXPECT THE LIFR TO LINGER IN THE EAST WITH MVFR IN CT AND WESTERN
MASS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR IN THE WEST AND
MVFR CIGS IN THE EAST.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES IN WITH MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR
VSBYS. TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHT TO CHANGE ANY
RAIN TO SNOW. MOST OF THE IFR VSBYS SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED IN
EASTERN MASS AND POSSIBLY RI. THIS CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE 30S WHICH
SHOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE THE
INTERIOR REMAINS SNOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. SCT MVFR ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF I-95 DUE TO OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. VSBYS MAY BE
REDUCE IF HEAVY BAND OF SNOW SETS-UP.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...
NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. LINGERING SEAS
OF 5 TO 9 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND/BLOCK ISLAND
SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ON THESE WATERS.

TONIGHT...NORTH WINDS PICK UP AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND A
DISTUBANCE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS
ON THE OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 5-6 FEET.

SATURDAY...CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS REACHING 25 KNOTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS. CONTINUED ROUGH SEAS 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON CAPE COD BAY AND
NANTUCKET SOUND AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND RI WATERS HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO TUESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK. HOWEVER THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS AND
BUILD SEAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY
ALLOW FOR WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY SUBSIDE.  BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS
BACK TO SW AND WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL SEE SEAS
INCREASE IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS
UP ABOVE SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 270814
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
414 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE HAS AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING ALONG IT UP THE
COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATER THIS
MORNING. A SECOND COLD FRONT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MOVE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND OFFSHORE TOWARD EVENING. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THIS MORNING...
AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING UP THE FRONT ALIGNS WELL WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. THIS JET MOVES OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES BY AFTERNOON...SO THIS AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE
OFF BY MIDDAY. TIMING FROM THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC WOULD
SUGGEST THE SHOWERS MOVE OFF AROUND MID MORNING...WHICH LINES UP
WELL WITH THE MODEL DYNAMICS.

THIS AFTERNOON...
AIRMASS DRIES OUT A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW THE DRIER AIR AROUND 700 MB WHILE MOIST AIR LINGERS BELOW 850
MB. SO WE EXPECT LINGERING CLOUDS BUT PCPN TAPERING OFF MOST
AREAS. EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS WHERE THERE
WOULD BE A LINGERING CHANCE. TEMPS AT 950 MB SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE 40S.

THIS EVENING...
ANOTHER UPPER JET MAX APPROACHES UP THE EAST COAST WITH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION. THIS ALONG WITH A WEAKENING
OF THE DRY LAYER WOULD SUGGEST AN RE-EXPANDING CHANCE OF PCPN IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE SHOWN CHANCE POPS RETURNING IN RI
AND CT BY 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST DURING THIS TIME.
THIS BRINGS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT DESTABILIZING THE AIRMASS. THE
UPPER JET INITIALLY PROVIDES UPPER VENTING AND LIFT TONIGHT. ALL
OF THIS SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF PCPN DURING THE NIGHT AND LINGERING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE. THEY ALSO SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING UP ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST. WE SAW THIS
DURING THE SNOW BLITZ LAST MONTH...INDICATING AN INCREASED CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS IN EASTERN MASS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS ARE MARGINAL. TEMPERTURES FAVOR SNOW DURING
THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH MORE MARGINAL FOR SNOW THAN OUR PREVIOUS
EXPERIENCE. ALL-IN-ALL MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE LESS THAN AN INCH OF
SNOW. BUT THE EXTRA SUPPORT FROM THIS TROUGH COULD YIELD A SLUSHY
1-2 INCHES ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES OF 25-35 ARE BORDERLINE FOR
THIS ACCUMULATION...SO CONFIDENCE IN THOSE NUMBERS IS LOW-
MODERATE.

TEMPS WILL WARM A LITTLE DURING SATURDAY MORNING AND SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO CHANGE ANY SNOW OVER TO RAIN BY MIDDAY. TEMPS ALOFT
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* OCEAN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED

OVERVIEW...

UNFORTUNATELY AN ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. DEEP
TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY PUSHING THE
CAROLINA LOW SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK AND TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. A
QUICK MOVING RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY BEFORE
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH WITH THE FIRST MOVING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WITH
IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH BY LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL DAY 7 WHERE THEY ARE
SPLIT IN TIMING ON THE THURSDAY SYSTEM AS THE EC IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN THE AMPLIFIED GFS. STILL MESO SCALE DETAILS AND THERMAL
PROFILES TO WORK OUT BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS AROUND THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S WITH THE COOLEST SPOTS OUT WEST AS SKIES WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

MAIN FOCUS ON SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE SNOW POTENTIAL. NAM/GFS ARE VERY
BULLISH IN THEIR QPF COMPARED TO THE CONSERVATIVE EC. INVERTED
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS
SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. HOWEVER SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER LIFT ALOFT AND WITH DELTA TS NEAR 20 DEGREE
DIFFERENCE EXPECT OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP/ENHANCE
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES. WENT WITH HPC QPF TO PLAY
CONSERVATIVE BUT GENERALLY COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES ADDITIONAL FROM WHAT
FALLS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SET-UP
CLOSELY AS WE COULD HAVE A SURPRISE 3 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS SOMEWHERE
ALONG THE EAST MASS COASTLINE.

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OFFSHORE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH IN LATE IN THE DAY ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO EVENTUALLY
WARM INTO THE MID 40S. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING BUT
THEY WILL BEGIN TO CLOUD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL SOME SPREAD AMONGST THE GUIDANCE FOR
TIMING WITH THE GFS BEING 6HRS FASTER THEN REST OF THE GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE TRENDED TOWARDS EC/HPC ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF
SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT THE ONSET
LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY PRIOR TO
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. TIMING IS ALSO AN
ISSUE AS IF IT PASS OVERNIGHT THEN TEMPS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS...VS A DAYTIME PASSAGE. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF TIME TO
WATCH THIS SYSTEM BUT DEPENDING ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW...WE
COULD SEE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. OBSERVED
VALUES LIFR IN THE EAST AND MIXED VFR/MVFR IN CT AND WESTERN MASS.
EXPECT THE LIFR TO LINGER IN THE EAST WITH MVFR IN CT AND WESTERN
MASS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR IN THE WEST AND
MVFR CIGS IN THE EAST.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES IN WITH MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR
VSBYS. TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHT TO CHANGE ANY
RAIN TO SNOW. MOST OF THE IFR VSBYS SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED IN
EASTERN MASS AND POSSIBLY RI. THIS CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE 30S WHICH
SHOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE THE
INTERIOR REMAINS SNOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. SCT MVFR ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF I-95 DUE TO OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. VSBYS MAY BE
REDUCE IF HEAVY BAND OF SNOW SETS-UP.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...
NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. LINGERING SEAS
OF 5 TO 9 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND/BLOCK ISLAND
SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ON THESE WATERS.

TONIGHT...NORTH WINDS PICK UP AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND A
DISTUBANCE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS
ON THE OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 5-6 FEET.

SATURDAY...CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS REACHING 25 KNOTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS. CONTINUED ROUGH SEAS 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON CAPE COD BAY AND
NANTUCKET SOUND AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND RI WATERS HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO TUESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK. HOWEVER THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS AND
BUILD SEAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY
ALLOW FOR WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY SUBSIDE.  BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS
BACK TO SW AND WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL SEE SEAS
INCREASE IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS
UP ABOVE SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 270814
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
414 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE HAS AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING ALONG IT UP THE
COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATER THIS
MORNING. A SECOND COLD FRONT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MOVE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND OFFSHORE TOWARD EVENING. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THIS MORNING...
AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING UP THE FRONT ALIGNS WELL WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. THIS JET MOVES OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES BY AFTERNOON...SO THIS AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE
OFF BY MIDDAY. TIMING FROM THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC WOULD
SUGGEST THE SHOWERS MOVE OFF AROUND MID MORNING...WHICH LINES UP
WELL WITH THE MODEL DYNAMICS.

THIS AFTERNOON...
AIRMASS DRIES OUT A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW THE DRIER AIR AROUND 700 MB WHILE MOIST AIR LINGERS BELOW 850
MB. SO WE EXPECT LINGERING CLOUDS BUT PCPN TAPERING OFF MOST
AREAS. EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS WHERE THERE
WOULD BE A LINGERING CHANCE. TEMPS AT 950 MB SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE 40S.

THIS EVENING...
ANOTHER UPPER JET MAX APPROACHES UP THE EAST COAST WITH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION. THIS ALONG WITH A WEAKENING
OF THE DRY LAYER WOULD SUGGEST AN RE-EXPANDING CHANCE OF PCPN IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE SHOWN CHANCE POPS RETURNING IN RI
AND CT BY 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST DURING THIS TIME.
THIS BRINGS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT DESTABILIZING THE AIRMASS. THE
UPPER JET INITIALLY PROVIDES UPPER VENTING AND LIFT TONIGHT. ALL
OF THIS SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF PCPN DURING THE NIGHT AND LINGERING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE. THEY ALSO SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING UP ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST. WE SAW THIS
DURING THE SNOW BLITZ LAST MONTH...INDICATING AN INCREASED CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS IN EASTERN MASS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS ARE MARGINAL. TEMPERTURES FAVOR SNOW DURING
THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH MORE MARGINAL FOR SNOW THAN OUR PREVIOUS
EXPERIENCE. ALL-IN-ALL MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE LESS THAN AN INCH OF
SNOW. BUT THE EXTRA SUPPORT FROM THIS TROUGH COULD YIELD A SLUSHY
1-2 INCHES ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES OF 25-35 ARE BORDERLINE FOR
THIS ACCUMULATION...SO CONFIDENCE IN THOSE NUMBERS IS LOW-
MODERATE.

TEMPS WILL WARM A LITTLE DURING SATURDAY MORNING AND SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO CHANGE ANY SNOW OVER TO RAIN BY MIDDAY. TEMPS ALOFT
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* OCEAN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT
* A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING SPRING-LIKE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK
* ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED

OVERVIEW...

UNFORTUNATELY AN ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. DEEP
TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY PUSHING THE
CAROLINA LOW SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK AND TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. A
QUICK MOVING RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY BEFORE
NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH THROUGH WITH THE FIRST MOVING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WITH
IT ON MONDAY. NEXT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LASTLY A NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM MERGER APPEARS TO APPROACH BY LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL DAY 7 WHERE THEY ARE
SPLIT IN TIMING ON THE THURSDAY SYSTEM AS THE EC IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN THE AMPLIFIED GFS. STILL MESO SCALE DETAILS AND THERMAL
PROFILES TO WORK OUT BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS INTO NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

* SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS AROUND THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S WITH THE COOLEST SPOTS OUT WEST AS SKIES WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.

MAIN FOCUS ON SATURDAY NIGHT IS THE SNOW POTENTIAL. NAM/GFS ARE VERY
BULLISH IN THEIR QPF COMPARED TO THE CONSERVATIVE EC. INVERTED
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS
SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE MARITIMES. HOWEVER SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER LIFT ALOFT AND WITH DELTA TS NEAR 20 DEGREE
DIFFERENCE EXPECT OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP/ENHANCE
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES. WENT WITH HPC QPF TO PLAY
CONSERVATIVE BUT GENERALLY COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES ADDITIONAL FROM WHAT
FALLS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS SET-UP
CLOSELY AS WE COULD HAVE A SURPRISE 3 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS SOMEWHERE
ALONG THE EAST MASS COASTLINE.

* SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY AS DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OFFSHORE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH IN LATE IN THE DAY ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO EVENTUALLY
WARM INTO THE MID 40S. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING BUT
THEY WILL BEGIN TO CLOUD UP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

* MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STILL SOME SPREAD AMONGST THE GUIDANCE FOR
TIMING WITH THE GFS BEING 6HRS FASTER THEN REST OF THE GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE TRENDED TOWARDS EC/HPC ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF
SNE...DRAGGING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH IT. TEMPS AT THE ONSET
LOOK TO BE COOL THEN WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY PRIOR TO
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...EXPECT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY AS TEMPS
WARM UP. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL SO COVERAGE MAY BE MORE SCT ALONG THE
FRONT.

* TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM CANADA AND
MOVE ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EC IS MORE
AMPLIFIED/STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM CUTTING OFF THE 850 MB LOW
COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS AN OPEN WAVE. TIMING IS ALSO AN
ISSUE AS IF IT PASS OVERNIGHT THEN TEMPS WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SNOW SHOWERS...VS A DAYTIME PASSAGE. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF TIME TO
WATCH THIS SYSTEM BUT DEPENDING ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW...WE
COULD SEE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.

WEAK RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM BEFORE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. EC IS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE GFS. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. OBSERVED
VALUES LIFR IN THE EAST AND MIXED VFR/MVFR IN CT AND WESTERN MASS.
EXPECT THE LIFR TO LINGER IN THE EAST WITH MVFR IN CT AND WESTERN
MASS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR IN THE WEST AND
MVFR CIGS IN THE EAST.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES IN WITH MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR
VSBYS. TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHT TO CHANGE ANY
RAIN TO SNOW. MOST OF THE IFR VSBYS SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED IN
EASTERN MASS AND POSSIBLY RI. THIS CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE 30S WHICH
SHOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE THE
INTERIOR REMAINS SNOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. SCT MVFR ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF I-95 DUE TO OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. VSBYS MAY BE
REDUCE IF HEAVY BAND OF SNOW SETS-UP.

MONDAY...VFR DROPPING TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN SCT RAIN SHOWERS AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...
NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. LINGERING SEAS
OF 5 TO 9 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND/BLOCK ISLAND
SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ON THESE WATERS.

TONIGHT...NORTH WINDS PICK UP AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND A
DISTUBANCE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS
ON THE OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 5-6 FEET.

SATURDAY...CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS REACHING 25 KNOTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS. CONTINUED ROUGH SEAS 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON CAPE COD BAY AND
NANTUCKET SOUND AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND RI WATERS HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO TUESDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK. HOWEVER THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS AND
BUILD SEAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SCA WILL BE NEEDED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY
ALLOW FOR WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY SUBSIDE.  BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS
BACK TO SW AND WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL SEE SEAS
INCREASE IN RESPONSE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCA TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...WEAK LULL IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REACHING NEAR 30KTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS
UP ABOVE SCA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
     250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 270756
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
356 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE HAS AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING ALONG IT UP THE
COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATER THIS
MORNING. A SECOND COLD FRONT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MOVE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND OFFSHORE TOWARD EVENING. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PUSH SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

THIS MORNING...
AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING UP THE FRONT ALIGNS WELL WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. THIS JET MOVES OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES BY AFTERNOON...SO THIS AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE
OFF BY MIDDAY. TIMING FROM THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC WOULD
SUGGEST THE SHOWERS MOVE OFF AROUND MID MORNING...WHICH LINES UP
WELL WITH THE MODEL DYNAMICS.

THIS AFTERNOON...
AIRMASS DRIES OUT A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW THE DRIER AIR AROUND 700 MB WHILE MOIST AIR LINGERS BELOW 850
MB. SO WE EXPECT LINGERING CLOUDS BUT PCPN TAPERING OFF MOST
AREAS. EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS WHERE THERE
WOULD BE A LINGERING CHANCE. TEMPS AT 950 MB SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE 40S.

THIS EVENING...
ANOTHER UPPER JET MAX APPROACHES UP THE EAST COAST WITH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION. THIS ALONG WITH A WEAKENING
OF THE DRY LAYER WOULD SUGGEST AN RE-EXPANDING CHANCE OF PCPN IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE SHOWN CHANCE POPS RETURNING IN RI
AND CT BY 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST DURING THIS TIME.
THIS BRINGS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT DESTABILIZING THE AIRMASS. THE
UPPER JET INITIALLY PROVIDES UPPER VENTING AND LIFT TONIGHT. ALL
OF THIS SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF PCPN DURING THE NIGHT AND LINGERING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE. THEY ALSO SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING UP ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST. WE SAW THIS
DURING THE SNOW BLITZ LAST MONTH...INDICATING AN INCREASED CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS IN EASTERN MASS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS ARE MARGINAL. TEMPERTURES FAVOR SNOW DURING
THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH MORE MARGINAL FOR SNOW THAN OUR PREVIOUS
EXPERIENCE. ALL-IN-ALL MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE LESS THAN AN INCH OF
SNOW. BUT THE EXTRA SUPPORT FROM THIS TROUGH COULD YIELD A SLUSHY
1-2 INCHES ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES OF 25-35 ARE BORDERLINE FOR
THIS ACCUMULATION...SO CONFIDENCE IN THOSE NUMBERS IS LOW-
MODERATE.

TEMPS WILL WARM A LITTLE DURING SATURDAY MORNING AND SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO CHANGE ANY SNOW OVER TO RAIN BY MIDDAY. TEMPS ALOFT
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

LONG TERM AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. BEYOND THIS WEEKEND...MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THE LONG WAVE
TROUGHING THAT HAS BEEN NEARLY A CONSTANT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
MONTHS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E...BUT WILL
BRING A FAST NW FLOW ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING FAST
MOVING WEAK SYSTEMS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. TIMING IS IN QUESTION DUE
TO FAST MOVEMENT LENDING TO WIDE OPERATIONAL MODEL VARIANCE ALONG
WITH LOWERED CONFIDENCE FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN LEANED
TOWARD THE SUPERBLEND ALONG WITH SOME BLENDING WITH THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS TO TRY AND RESOLVE TIMING OF SYSTEMS TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL FAST FLOW ALOFT WITH MORE
WAVES MOVING ALONG INTO FAST FLOW ALOFT INTO EASTER WEEKEND WHICH
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MOST
AREAS...THOUGH SOME LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MIGHT LINGER ALONG
THE S COAST. N WINDS WILL BE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS
INLAND RANGING TO THE UPPER 20S ON THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AS UPPER TROUGH FINALLY MOVES OFFSHORE...EXPECT HIGH PRES RIDGING
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BRING SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. AS
FAST NW FLOW ALOFT SETS UP...RIDGE WILL BUILD E DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN. WILL SEE SOME WARM
AIR ADVECTION WORK IN AS WINDS BACK TO W-SW...BUT NOT IN TIME FOR
TEMPS TO RECOVER SO HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S.

TEMPS WILL DROP A FEW DEGS SUN NIGHT AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE. NEXT FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW
APPROACHES. TIMING IS AN ISSUE...THOUGH LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE
MODEL SUITE HOLDS PRECIP OFF UNTIL MONDAY EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY A
FEW ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS THE E SLOPES OF THE
BERKSHIRES.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS BRINGING A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS
EARLY...CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS BY MIDDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION. TEMPS WILL MODERATE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50.

SOME LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AREAS MON NIGHT BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE AS FRONT CLEARS THE COAST.
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ALSO PUSHES E WITH NW FLOW KICKING BACK IN.
HOWEVER...CORE OF H85 COLD AIR REMAINS N OF THE REGION. WILL STILL
SEE COOLER TEMPS...BUT LOWS WILL ONLY FALL BACK TO THE UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
FAST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES...BRINGING ONE SYSTEM ACROSS. WITH WIDE
TIMING ISSUES AMONGST INDIVIDUAL MODELS...HAVE RATHER LOW
CONFIDENCE. FOR NOW...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TUE...THEN POSSIBLE
SHOWERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED. LOOKS TO DRY OUT AGAIN BY MIDDAY WED.
WARM FRONT MAY BRING CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP WED
NIGHT/THU.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. OBSERVED
VALUES LIFR IN THE EAST AND MIXED VFR/MVFR IN CT AND WESTERN MASS.
EXPECT THE LIFR TO LINGER IN THE EAST WITH MVFR IN CT AND WESTERN
MASS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR IN THE WEST AND
MVFR CIGS IN THE EAST.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES IN WITH MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR
VSBYS. TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHT TO CHANGE ANY
RAIN TO SNOW. MOST OF THE IFR VSBYS SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED IN
EASTERN MASS AND POSSIBLY RI. THIS CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE 30S WHICH
SHOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE THE
INTERIOR REMAINS SNOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT...LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA EARLY
IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING FROM N-S BY MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS. CLOUDS INCREASE FROM
W-E SUN NIGHT...MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF
W MA.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT RAIN
SHOWERS. CHANCE OF -SHSN ACROSS CENTRAL-W MA/N CT THROUGH MIDDAY
MONDAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM W-E MONDAY NIGHT...VFR ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...
NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. LINGERING SEAS
OF 5 TO 9 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND/BLOCK ISLAND
SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ON THESE WATERS.

TONIGHT...NORTH WINDS PICK UP AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND A
DISTUBANCE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS
ON THE OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 5-6 FEET.

SATURDAY...CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS REACHING 25 KNOTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS. CONTINUED ROUGH SEAS 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON CAPE COD BAY AND
NANTUCKET SOUND AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND RI WATERS HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT...BRIEF LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE ON PORTIONS
OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO BRIEFLY DIMINISH BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA AS WINDS BACK FROM NW TO SW SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS
ALSO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SW WINDS PICK UP DURING MONDAY...GUSTING TO 25
KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7 FT. WINDS SHIFT TO W MON NIGHT-TUE
WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5
FT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 270756
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
356 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE HAS AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING ALONG IT UP THE
COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATER THIS
MORNING. A SECOND COLD FRONT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MOVE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND OFFSHORE TOWARD EVENING. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PUSH SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

THIS MORNING...
AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING UP THE FRONT ALIGNS WELL WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. THIS JET MOVES OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES BY AFTERNOON...SO THIS AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE
OFF BY MIDDAY. TIMING FROM THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC WOULD
SUGGEST THE SHOWERS MOVE OFF AROUND MID MORNING...WHICH LINES UP
WELL WITH THE MODEL DYNAMICS.

THIS AFTERNOON...
AIRMASS DRIES OUT A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW THE DRIER AIR AROUND 700 MB WHILE MOIST AIR LINGERS BELOW 850
MB. SO WE EXPECT LINGERING CLOUDS BUT PCPN TAPERING OFF MOST
AREAS. EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS WHERE THERE
WOULD BE A LINGERING CHANCE. TEMPS AT 950 MB SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE 40S.

THIS EVENING...
ANOTHER UPPER JET MAX APPROACHES UP THE EAST COAST WITH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION. THIS ALONG WITH A WEAKENING
OF THE DRY LAYER WOULD SUGGEST AN RE-EXPANDING CHANCE OF PCPN IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE SHOWN CHANCE POPS RETURNING IN RI
AND CT BY 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST DURING THIS TIME.
THIS BRINGS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT DESTABILIZING THE AIRMASS. THE
UPPER JET INITIALLY PROVIDES UPPER VENTING AND LIFT TONIGHT. ALL
OF THIS SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF PCPN DURING THE NIGHT AND LINGERING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE. THEY ALSO SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING UP ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST. WE SAW THIS
DURING THE SNOW BLITZ LAST MONTH...INDICATING AN INCREASED CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS IN EASTERN MASS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS ARE MARGINAL. TEMPERTURES FAVOR SNOW DURING
THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH MORE MARGINAL FOR SNOW THAN OUR PREVIOUS
EXPERIENCE. ALL-IN-ALL MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE LESS THAN AN INCH OF
SNOW. BUT THE EXTRA SUPPORT FROM THIS TROUGH COULD YIELD A SLUSHY
1-2 INCHES ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES OF 25-35 ARE BORDERLINE FOR
THIS ACCUMULATION...SO CONFIDENCE IN THOSE NUMBERS IS LOW-
MODERATE.

TEMPS WILL WARM A LITTLE DURING SATURDAY MORNING AND SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO CHANGE ANY SNOW OVER TO RAIN BY MIDDAY. TEMPS ALOFT
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

LONG TERM AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. BEYOND THIS WEEKEND...MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THE LONG WAVE
TROUGHING THAT HAS BEEN NEARLY A CONSTANT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
MONTHS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E...BUT WILL
BRING A FAST NW FLOW ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING FAST
MOVING WEAK SYSTEMS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. TIMING IS IN QUESTION DUE
TO FAST MOVEMENT LENDING TO WIDE OPERATIONAL MODEL VARIANCE ALONG
WITH LOWERED CONFIDENCE FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN LEANED
TOWARD THE SUPERBLEND ALONG WITH SOME BLENDING WITH THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS TO TRY AND RESOLVE TIMING OF SYSTEMS TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL FAST FLOW ALOFT WITH MORE
WAVES MOVING ALONG INTO FAST FLOW ALOFT INTO EASTER WEEKEND WHICH
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MOST
AREAS...THOUGH SOME LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MIGHT LINGER ALONG
THE S COAST. N WINDS WILL BE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS
INLAND RANGING TO THE UPPER 20S ON THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AS UPPER TROUGH FINALLY MOVES OFFSHORE...EXPECT HIGH PRES RIDGING
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BRING SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. AS
FAST NW FLOW ALOFT SETS UP...RIDGE WILL BUILD E DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN. WILL SEE SOME WARM
AIR ADVECTION WORK IN AS WINDS BACK TO W-SW...BUT NOT IN TIME FOR
TEMPS TO RECOVER SO HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S.

TEMPS WILL DROP A FEW DEGS SUN NIGHT AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE. NEXT FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW
APPROACHES. TIMING IS AN ISSUE...THOUGH LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE
MODEL SUITE HOLDS PRECIP OFF UNTIL MONDAY EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY A
FEW ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS THE E SLOPES OF THE
BERKSHIRES.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS BRINGING A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS
EARLY...CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS BY MIDDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION. TEMPS WILL MODERATE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50.

SOME LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AREAS MON NIGHT BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE AS FRONT CLEARS THE COAST.
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ALSO PUSHES E WITH NW FLOW KICKING BACK IN.
HOWEVER...CORE OF H85 COLD AIR REMAINS N OF THE REGION. WILL STILL
SEE COOLER TEMPS...BUT LOWS WILL ONLY FALL BACK TO THE UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
FAST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES...BRINGING ONE SYSTEM ACROSS. WITH WIDE
TIMING ISSUES AMONGST INDIVIDUAL MODELS...HAVE RATHER LOW
CONFIDENCE. FOR NOW...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TUE...THEN POSSIBLE
SHOWERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED. LOOKS TO DRY OUT AGAIN BY MIDDAY WED.
WARM FRONT MAY BRING CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP WED
NIGHT/THU.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. OBSERVED
VALUES LIFR IN THE EAST AND MIXED VFR/MVFR IN CT AND WESTERN MASS.
EXPECT THE LIFR TO LINGER IN THE EAST WITH MVFR IN CT AND WESTERN
MASS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR IN THE WEST AND
MVFR CIGS IN THE EAST.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES IN WITH MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR
VSBYS. TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHT TO CHANGE ANY
RAIN TO SNOW. MOST OF THE IFR VSBYS SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED IN
EASTERN MASS AND POSSIBLY RI. THIS CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE 30S WHICH
SHOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE THE
INTERIOR REMAINS SNOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT...LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA EARLY
IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING FROM N-S BY MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS. CLOUDS INCREASE FROM
W-E SUN NIGHT...MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF
W MA.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT RAIN
SHOWERS. CHANCE OF -SHSN ACROSS CENTRAL-W MA/N CT THROUGH MIDDAY
MONDAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM W-E MONDAY NIGHT...VFR ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...
NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. LINGERING SEAS
OF 5 TO 9 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND/BLOCK ISLAND
SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ON THESE WATERS.

TONIGHT...NORTH WINDS PICK UP AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND A
DISTUBANCE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS
ON THE OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 5-6 FEET.

SATURDAY...CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS REACHING 25 KNOTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS. CONTINUED ROUGH SEAS 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON CAPE COD BAY AND
NANTUCKET SOUND AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND RI WATERS HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT...BRIEF LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE ON PORTIONS
OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO BRIEFLY DIMINISH BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA AS WINDS BACK FROM NW TO SW SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS
ALSO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SW WINDS PICK UP DURING MONDAY...GUSTING TO 25
KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7 FT. WINDS SHIFT TO W MON NIGHT-TUE
WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5
FT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 270756
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
356 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE HAS AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING ALONG IT UP THE
COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATER THIS
MORNING. A SECOND COLD FRONT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MOVE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND OFFSHORE TOWARD EVENING. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PUSH SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

THIS MORNING...
AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING UP THE FRONT ALIGNS WELL WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. THIS JET MOVES OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES BY AFTERNOON...SO THIS AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE
OFF BY MIDDAY. TIMING FROM THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC WOULD
SUGGEST THE SHOWERS MOVE OFF AROUND MID MORNING...WHICH LINES UP
WELL WITH THE MODEL DYNAMICS.

THIS AFTERNOON...
AIRMASS DRIES OUT A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW THE DRIER AIR AROUND 700 MB WHILE MOIST AIR LINGERS BELOW 850
MB. SO WE EXPECT LINGERING CLOUDS BUT PCPN TAPERING OFF MOST
AREAS. EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS WHERE THERE
WOULD BE A LINGERING CHANCE. TEMPS AT 950 MB SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE 40S.

THIS EVENING...
ANOTHER UPPER JET MAX APPROACHES UP THE EAST COAST WITH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION. THIS ALONG WITH A WEAKENING
OF THE DRY LAYER WOULD SUGGEST AN RE-EXPANDING CHANCE OF PCPN IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE SHOWN CHANCE POPS RETURNING IN RI
AND CT BY 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST DURING THIS TIME.
THIS BRINGS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT DESTABILIZING THE AIRMASS. THE
UPPER JET INITIALLY PROVIDES UPPER VENTING AND LIFT TONIGHT. ALL
OF THIS SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF PCPN DURING THE NIGHT AND LINGERING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE. THEY ALSO SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING UP ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST. WE SAW THIS
DURING THE SNOW BLITZ LAST MONTH...INDICATING AN INCREASED CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS IN EASTERN MASS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS ARE MARGINAL. TEMPERTURES FAVOR SNOW DURING
THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH MORE MARGINAL FOR SNOW THAN OUR PREVIOUS
EXPERIENCE. ALL-IN-ALL MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE LESS THAN AN INCH OF
SNOW. BUT THE EXTRA SUPPORT FROM THIS TROUGH COULD YIELD A SLUSHY
1-2 INCHES ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES OF 25-35 ARE BORDERLINE FOR
THIS ACCUMULATION...SO CONFIDENCE IN THOSE NUMBERS IS LOW-
MODERATE.

TEMPS WILL WARM A LITTLE DURING SATURDAY MORNING AND SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO CHANGE ANY SNOW OVER TO RAIN BY MIDDAY. TEMPS ALOFT
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

LONG TERM AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. BEYOND THIS WEEKEND...MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THE LONG WAVE
TROUGHING THAT HAS BEEN NEARLY A CONSTANT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
MONTHS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E...BUT WILL
BRING A FAST NW FLOW ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING FAST
MOVING WEAK SYSTEMS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. TIMING IS IN QUESTION DUE
TO FAST MOVEMENT LENDING TO WIDE OPERATIONAL MODEL VARIANCE ALONG
WITH LOWERED CONFIDENCE FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN LEANED
TOWARD THE SUPERBLEND ALONG WITH SOME BLENDING WITH THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS TO TRY AND RESOLVE TIMING OF SYSTEMS TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL FAST FLOW ALOFT WITH MORE
WAVES MOVING ALONG INTO FAST FLOW ALOFT INTO EASTER WEEKEND WHICH
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MOST
AREAS...THOUGH SOME LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MIGHT LINGER ALONG
THE S COAST. N WINDS WILL BE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS
INLAND RANGING TO THE UPPER 20S ON THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AS UPPER TROUGH FINALLY MOVES OFFSHORE...EXPECT HIGH PRES RIDGING
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BRING SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. AS
FAST NW FLOW ALOFT SETS UP...RIDGE WILL BUILD E DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN. WILL SEE SOME WARM
AIR ADVECTION WORK IN AS WINDS BACK TO W-SW...BUT NOT IN TIME FOR
TEMPS TO RECOVER SO HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S.

TEMPS WILL DROP A FEW DEGS SUN NIGHT AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE. NEXT FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW
APPROACHES. TIMING IS AN ISSUE...THOUGH LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE
MODEL SUITE HOLDS PRECIP OFF UNTIL MONDAY EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY A
FEW ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS THE E SLOPES OF THE
BERKSHIRES.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS BRINGING A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS
EARLY...CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS BY MIDDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION. TEMPS WILL MODERATE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50.

SOME LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AREAS MON NIGHT BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE AS FRONT CLEARS THE COAST.
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ALSO PUSHES E WITH NW FLOW KICKING BACK IN.
HOWEVER...CORE OF H85 COLD AIR REMAINS N OF THE REGION. WILL STILL
SEE COOLER TEMPS...BUT LOWS WILL ONLY FALL BACK TO THE UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
FAST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES...BRINGING ONE SYSTEM ACROSS. WITH WIDE
TIMING ISSUES AMONGST INDIVIDUAL MODELS...HAVE RATHER LOW
CONFIDENCE. FOR NOW...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TUE...THEN POSSIBLE
SHOWERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED. LOOKS TO DRY OUT AGAIN BY MIDDAY WED.
WARM FRONT MAY BRING CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP WED
NIGHT/THU.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. OBSERVED
VALUES LIFR IN THE EAST AND MIXED VFR/MVFR IN CT AND WESTERN MASS.
EXPECT THE LIFR TO LINGER IN THE EAST WITH MVFR IN CT AND WESTERN
MASS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR IN THE WEST AND
MVFR CIGS IN THE EAST.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES IN WITH MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR
VSBYS. TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHT TO CHANGE ANY
RAIN TO SNOW. MOST OF THE IFR VSBYS SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED IN
EASTERN MASS AND POSSIBLY RI. THIS CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE 30S WHICH
SHOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE THE
INTERIOR REMAINS SNOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT...LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA EARLY
IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING FROM N-S BY MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS. CLOUDS INCREASE FROM
W-E SUN NIGHT...MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF
W MA.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT RAIN
SHOWERS. CHANCE OF -SHSN ACROSS CENTRAL-W MA/N CT THROUGH MIDDAY
MONDAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM W-E MONDAY NIGHT...VFR ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...
NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. LINGERING SEAS
OF 5 TO 9 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND/BLOCK ISLAND
SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ON THESE WATERS.

TONIGHT...NORTH WINDS PICK UP AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND A
DISTUBANCE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS
ON THE OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 5-6 FEET.

SATURDAY...CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS REACHING 25 KNOTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS. CONTINUED ROUGH SEAS 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON CAPE COD BAY AND
NANTUCKET SOUND AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND RI WATERS HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT...BRIEF LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE ON PORTIONS
OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO BRIEFLY DIMINISH BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA AS WINDS BACK FROM NW TO SW SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS
ALSO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SW WINDS PICK UP DURING MONDAY...GUSTING TO 25
KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7 FT. WINDS SHIFT TO W MON NIGHT-TUE
WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5
FT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 270756
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
356 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE HAS AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING ALONG IT UP THE
COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATER THIS
MORNING. A SECOND COLD FRONT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MOVE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND OFFSHORE TOWARD EVENING. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PUSH SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

THIS MORNING...
AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING UP THE FRONT ALIGNS WELL WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. THIS JET MOVES OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES BY AFTERNOON...SO THIS AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE
OFF BY MIDDAY. TIMING FROM THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC WOULD
SUGGEST THE SHOWERS MOVE OFF AROUND MID MORNING...WHICH LINES UP
WELL WITH THE MODEL DYNAMICS.

THIS AFTERNOON...
AIRMASS DRIES OUT A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW THE DRIER AIR AROUND 700 MB WHILE MOIST AIR LINGERS BELOW 850
MB. SO WE EXPECT LINGERING CLOUDS BUT PCPN TAPERING OFF MOST
AREAS. EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS WHERE THERE
WOULD BE A LINGERING CHANCE. TEMPS AT 950 MB SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE 40S.

THIS EVENING...
ANOTHER UPPER JET MAX APPROACHES UP THE EAST COAST WITH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION. THIS ALONG WITH A WEAKENING
OF THE DRY LAYER WOULD SUGGEST AN RE-EXPANDING CHANCE OF PCPN IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE SHOWN CHANCE POPS RETURNING IN RI
AND CT BY 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST DURING THIS TIME.
THIS BRINGS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT DESTABILIZING THE AIRMASS. THE
UPPER JET INITIALLY PROVIDES UPPER VENTING AND LIFT TONIGHT. ALL
OF THIS SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF PCPN DURING THE NIGHT AND LINGERING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE. THEY ALSO SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING UP ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST. WE SAW THIS
DURING THE SNOW BLITZ LAST MONTH...INDICATING AN INCREASED CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS IN EASTERN MASS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS ARE MARGINAL. TEMPERTURES FAVOR SNOW DURING
THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH MORE MARGINAL FOR SNOW THAN OUR PREVIOUS
EXPERIENCE. ALL-IN-ALL MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE LESS THAN AN INCH OF
SNOW. BUT THE EXTRA SUPPORT FROM THIS TROUGH COULD YIELD A SLUSHY
1-2 INCHES ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES OF 25-35 ARE BORDERLINE FOR
THIS ACCUMULATION...SO CONFIDENCE IN THOSE NUMBERS IS LOW-
MODERATE.

TEMPS WILL WARM A LITTLE DURING SATURDAY MORNING AND SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO CHANGE ANY SNOW OVER TO RAIN BY MIDDAY. TEMPS ALOFT
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

LONG TERM AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. BEYOND THIS WEEKEND...MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THE LONG WAVE
TROUGHING THAT HAS BEEN NEARLY A CONSTANT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
MONTHS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E...BUT WILL
BRING A FAST NW FLOW ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING FAST
MOVING WEAK SYSTEMS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. TIMING IS IN QUESTION DUE
TO FAST MOVEMENT LENDING TO WIDE OPERATIONAL MODEL VARIANCE ALONG
WITH LOWERED CONFIDENCE FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN LEANED
TOWARD THE SUPERBLEND ALONG WITH SOME BLENDING WITH THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS TO TRY AND RESOLVE TIMING OF SYSTEMS TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL FAST FLOW ALOFT WITH MORE
WAVES MOVING ALONG INTO FAST FLOW ALOFT INTO EASTER WEEKEND WHICH
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MOST
AREAS...THOUGH SOME LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MIGHT LINGER ALONG
THE S COAST. N WINDS WILL BE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS
INLAND RANGING TO THE UPPER 20S ON THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AS UPPER TROUGH FINALLY MOVES OFFSHORE...EXPECT HIGH PRES RIDGING
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BRING SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. AS
FAST NW FLOW ALOFT SETS UP...RIDGE WILL BUILD E DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN. WILL SEE SOME WARM
AIR ADVECTION WORK IN AS WINDS BACK TO W-SW...BUT NOT IN TIME FOR
TEMPS TO RECOVER SO HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S.

TEMPS WILL DROP A FEW DEGS SUN NIGHT AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE. NEXT FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW
APPROACHES. TIMING IS AN ISSUE...THOUGH LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE
MODEL SUITE HOLDS PRECIP OFF UNTIL MONDAY EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY A
FEW ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS THE E SLOPES OF THE
BERKSHIRES.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS BRINGING A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS
EARLY...CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS BY MIDDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION. TEMPS WILL MODERATE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50.

SOME LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AREAS MON NIGHT BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE AS FRONT CLEARS THE COAST.
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ALSO PUSHES E WITH NW FLOW KICKING BACK IN.
HOWEVER...CORE OF H85 COLD AIR REMAINS N OF THE REGION. WILL STILL
SEE COOLER TEMPS...BUT LOWS WILL ONLY FALL BACK TO THE UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
FAST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES...BRINGING ONE SYSTEM ACROSS. WITH WIDE
TIMING ISSUES AMONGST INDIVIDUAL MODELS...HAVE RATHER LOW
CONFIDENCE. FOR NOW...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TUE...THEN POSSIBLE
SHOWERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED. LOOKS TO DRY OUT AGAIN BY MIDDAY WED.
WARM FRONT MAY BRING CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP WED
NIGHT/THU.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. OBSERVED
VALUES LIFR IN THE EAST AND MIXED VFR/MVFR IN CT AND WESTERN MASS.
EXPECT THE LIFR TO LINGER IN THE EAST WITH MVFR IN CT AND WESTERN
MASS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR IN THE WEST AND
MVFR CIGS IN THE EAST.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES IN WITH MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR
VSBYS. TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHT TO CHANGE ANY
RAIN TO SNOW. MOST OF THE IFR VSBYS SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED IN
EASTERN MASS AND POSSIBLY RI. THIS CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE 30S WHICH
SHOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE THE
INTERIOR REMAINS SNOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT...LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA EARLY
IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING FROM N-S BY MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS. CLOUDS INCREASE FROM
W-E SUN NIGHT...MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF
W MA.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT RAIN
SHOWERS. CHANCE OF -SHSN ACROSS CENTRAL-W MA/N CT THROUGH MIDDAY
MONDAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM W-E MONDAY NIGHT...VFR ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...
NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. LINGERING SEAS
OF 5 TO 9 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND/BLOCK ISLAND
SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ON THESE WATERS.

TONIGHT...NORTH WINDS PICK UP AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND A
DISTUBANCE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS
ON THE OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 5-6 FEET.

SATURDAY...CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS REACHING 25 KNOTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS. CONTINUED ROUGH SEAS 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON CAPE COD BAY AND
NANTUCKET SOUND AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND RI WATERS HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT...BRIEF LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE ON PORTIONS
OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO BRIEFLY DIMINISH BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA AS WINDS BACK FROM NW TO SW SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS
ALSO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SW WINDS PICK UP DURING MONDAY...GUSTING TO 25
KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7 FT. WINDS SHIFT TO W MON NIGHT-TUE
WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5
FT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 270756
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
356 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE HAS AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING ALONG IT UP THE
COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATER THIS
MORNING. A SECOND COLD FRONT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MOVE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND OFFSHORE TOWARD EVENING. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PUSH SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

THIS MORNING...
AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING UP THE FRONT ALIGNS WELL WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. THIS JET MOVES OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES BY AFTERNOON...SO THIS AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE
OFF BY MIDDAY. TIMING FROM THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC WOULD
SUGGEST THE SHOWERS MOVE OFF AROUND MID MORNING...WHICH LINES UP
WELL WITH THE MODEL DYNAMICS.

THIS AFTERNOON...
AIRMASS DRIES OUT A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW THE DRIER AIR AROUND 700 MB WHILE MOIST AIR LINGERS BELOW 850
MB. SO WE EXPECT LINGERING CLOUDS BUT PCPN TAPERING OFF MOST
AREAS. EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS WHERE THERE
WOULD BE A LINGERING CHANCE. TEMPS AT 950 MB SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE 40S.

THIS EVENING...
ANOTHER UPPER JET MAX APPROACHES UP THE EAST COAST WITH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION. THIS ALONG WITH A WEAKENING
OF THE DRY LAYER WOULD SUGGEST AN RE-EXPANDING CHANCE OF PCPN IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE SHOWN CHANCE POPS RETURNING IN RI
AND CT BY 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST DURING THIS TIME.
THIS BRINGS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT DESTABILIZING THE AIRMASS. THE
UPPER JET INITIALLY PROVIDES UPPER VENTING AND LIFT TONIGHT. ALL
OF THIS SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF PCPN DURING THE NIGHT AND LINGERING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE. THEY ALSO SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING UP ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST. WE SAW THIS
DURING THE SNOW BLITZ LAST MONTH...INDICATING AN INCREASED CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS IN EASTERN MASS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS ARE MARGINAL. TEMPERTURES FAVOR SNOW DURING
THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH MORE MARGINAL FOR SNOW THAN OUR PREVIOUS
EXPERIENCE. ALL-IN-ALL MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE LESS THAN AN INCH OF
SNOW. BUT THE EXTRA SUPPORT FROM THIS TROUGH COULD YIELD A SLUSHY
1-2 INCHES ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES OF 25-35 ARE BORDERLINE FOR
THIS ACCUMULATION...SO CONFIDENCE IN THOSE NUMBERS IS LOW-
MODERATE.

TEMPS WILL WARM A LITTLE DURING SATURDAY MORNING AND SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO CHANGE ANY SNOW OVER TO RAIN BY MIDDAY. TEMPS ALOFT
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

LONG TERM AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. BEYOND THIS WEEKEND...MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THE LONG WAVE
TROUGHING THAT HAS BEEN NEARLY A CONSTANT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
MONTHS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E...BUT WILL
BRING A FAST NW FLOW ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING FAST
MOVING WEAK SYSTEMS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. TIMING IS IN QUESTION DUE
TO FAST MOVEMENT LENDING TO WIDE OPERATIONAL MODEL VARIANCE ALONG
WITH LOWERED CONFIDENCE FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN LEANED
TOWARD THE SUPERBLEND ALONG WITH SOME BLENDING WITH THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS TO TRY AND RESOLVE TIMING OF SYSTEMS TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL FAST FLOW ALOFT WITH MORE
WAVES MOVING ALONG INTO FAST FLOW ALOFT INTO EASTER WEEKEND WHICH
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MOST
AREAS...THOUGH SOME LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MIGHT LINGER ALONG
THE S COAST. N WINDS WILL BE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS
INLAND RANGING TO THE UPPER 20S ON THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AS UPPER TROUGH FINALLY MOVES OFFSHORE...EXPECT HIGH PRES RIDGING
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BRING SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. AS
FAST NW FLOW ALOFT SETS UP...RIDGE WILL BUILD E DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN. WILL SEE SOME WARM
AIR ADVECTION WORK IN AS WINDS BACK TO W-SW...BUT NOT IN TIME FOR
TEMPS TO RECOVER SO HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S.

TEMPS WILL DROP A FEW DEGS SUN NIGHT AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE. NEXT FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW
APPROACHES. TIMING IS AN ISSUE...THOUGH LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE
MODEL SUITE HOLDS PRECIP OFF UNTIL MONDAY EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY A
FEW ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS THE E SLOPES OF THE
BERKSHIRES.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS BRINGING A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS
EARLY...CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS BY MIDDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION. TEMPS WILL MODERATE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50.

SOME LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AREAS MON NIGHT BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE AS FRONT CLEARS THE COAST.
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ALSO PUSHES E WITH NW FLOW KICKING BACK IN.
HOWEVER...CORE OF H85 COLD AIR REMAINS N OF THE REGION. WILL STILL
SEE COOLER TEMPS...BUT LOWS WILL ONLY FALL BACK TO THE UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
FAST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES...BRINGING ONE SYSTEM ACROSS. WITH WIDE
TIMING ISSUES AMONGST INDIVIDUAL MODELS...HAVE RATHER LOW
CONFIDENCE. FOR NOW...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TUE...THEN POSSIBLE
SHOWERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED. LOOKS TO DRY OUT AGAIN BY MIDDAY WED.
WARM FRONT MAY BRING CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP WED
NIGHT/THU.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. OBSERVED
VALUES LIFR IN THE EAST AND MIXED VFR/MVFR IN CT AND WESTERN MASS.
EXPECT THE LIFR TO LINGER IN THE EAST WITH MVFR IN CT AND WESTERN
MASS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR IN THE WEST AND
MVFR CIGS IN THE EAST.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES IN WITH MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR
VSBYS. TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHT TO CHANGE ANY
RAIN TO SNOW. MOST OF THE IFR VSBYS SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED IN
EASTERN MASS AND POSSIBLY RI. THIS CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE 30S WHICH
SHOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE THE
INTERIOR REMAINS SNOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT...LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA EARLY
IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING FROM N-S BY MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS. CLOUDS INCREASE FROM
W-E SUN NIGHT...MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF
W MA.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT RAIN
SHOWERS. CHANCE OF -SHSN ACROSS CENTRAL-W MA/N CT THROUGH MIDDAY
MONDAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM W-E MONDAY NIGHT...VFR ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...
NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. LINGERING SEAS
OF 5 TO 9 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND/BLOCK ISLAND
SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ON THESE WATERS.

TONIGHT...NORTH WINDS PICK UP AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND A
DISTUBANCE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS
ON THE OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 5-6 FEET.

SATURDAY...CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS REACHING 25 KNOTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS. CONTINUED ROUGH SEAS 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON CAPE COD BAY AND
NANTUCKET SOUND AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND RI WATERS HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT...BRIEF LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE ON PORTIONS
OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO BRIEFLY DIMINISH BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA AS WINDS BACK FROM NW TO SW SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS
ALSO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SW WINDS PICK UP DURING MONDAY...GUSTING TO 25
KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7 FT. WINDS SHIFT TO W MON NIGHT-TUE
WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5
FT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 270756
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
356 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE HAS AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING ALONG IT UP THE
COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATER THIS
MORNING. A SECOND COLD FRONT IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MOVE
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND OFFSHORE TOWARD EVENING. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PUSH SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION
IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

THIS MORNING...
AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING UP THE FRONT ALIGNS WELL WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. THIS JET MOVES OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES BY AFTERNOON...SO THIS AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE
OFF BY MIDDAY. TIMING FROM THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC WOULD
SUGGEST THE SHOWERS MOVE OFF AROUND MID MORNING...WHICH LINES UP
WELL WITH THE MODEL DYNAMICS.

THIS AFTERNOON...
AIRMASS DRIES OUT A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW THE DRIER AIR AROUND 700 MB WHILE MOIST AIR LINGERS BELOW 850
MB. SO WE EXPECT LINGERING CLOUDS BUT PCPN TAPERING OFF MOST
AREAS. EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS WHERE THERE
WOULD BE A LINGERING CHANCE. TEMPS AT 950 MB SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE 40S.

THIS EVENING...
ANOTHER UPPER JET MAX APPROACHES UP THE EAST COAST WITH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION. THIS ALONG WITH A WEAKENING
OF THE DRY LAYER WOULD SUGGEST AN RE-EXPANDING CHANCE OF PCPN IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE SHOWN CHANCE POPS RETURNING IN RI
AND CT BY 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST DURING THIS TIME.
THIS BRINGS COLD ADVECTION ALOFT DESTABILIZING THE AIRMASS. THE
UPPER JET INITIALLY PROVIDES UPPER VENTING AND LIFT TONIGHT. ALL
OF THIS SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF PCPN DURING THE NIGHT AND LINGERING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE. THEY ALSO SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING UP ALONG THE EAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST. WE SAW THIS
DURING THE SNOW BLITZ LAST MONTH...INDICATING AN INCREASED CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS IN EASTERN MASS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS ARE MARGINAL. TEMPERTURES FAVOR SNOW DURING
THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH MORE MARGINAL FOR SNOW THAN OUR PREVIOUS
EXPERIENCE. ALL-IN-ALL MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE LESS THAN AN INCH OF
SNOW. BUT THE EXTRA SUPPORT FROM THIS TROUGH COULD YIELD A SLUSHY
1-2 INCHES ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES OF 25-35 ARE BORDERLINE FOR
THIS ACCUMULATION...SO CONFIDENCE IN THOSE NUMBERS IS LOW-
MODERATE.

TEMPS WILL WARM A LITTLE DURING SATURDAY MORNING AND SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO CHANGE ANY SNOW OVER TO RAIN BY MIDDAY. TEMPS ALOFT
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

LONG TERM AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. BEYOND THIS WEEKEND...MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THE LONG WAVE
TROUGHING THAT HAS BEEN NEARLY A CONSTANT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
MONTHS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E...BUT WILL
BRING A FAST NW FLOW ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING FAST
MOVING WEAK SYSTEMS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. TIMING IS IN QUESTION DUE
TO FAST MOVEMENT LENDING TO WIDE OPERATIONAL MODEL VARIANCE ALONG
WITH LOWERED CONFIDENCE FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN LEANED
TOWARD THE SUPERBLEND ALONG WITH SOME BLENDING WITH THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS TO TRY AND RESOLVE TIMING OF SYSTEMS TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL FAST FLOW ALOFT WITH MORE
WAVES MOVING ALONG INTO FAST FLOW ALOFT INTO EASTER WEEKEND WHICH
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MOST
AREAS...THOUGH SOME LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MIGHT LINGER ALONG
THE S COAST. N WINDS WILL BE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS
INLAND RANGING TO THE UPPER 20S ON THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AS UPPER TROUGH FINALLY MOVES OFFSHORE...EXPECT HIGH PRES RIDGING
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BRING SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. AS
FAST NW FLOW ALOFT SETS UP...RIDGE WILL BUILD E DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN. WILL SEE SOME WARM
AIR ADVECTION WORK IN AS WINDS BACK TO W-SW...BUT NOT IN TIME FOR
TEMPS TO RECOVER SO HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S.

TEMPS WILL DROP A FEW DEGS SUN NIGHT AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE. NEXT FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW
APPROACHES. TIMING IS AN ISSUE...THOUGH LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE
MODEL SUITE HOLDS PRECIP OFF UNTIL MONDAY EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY A
FEW ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS THE E SLOPES OF THE
BERKSHIRES.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS BRINGING A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS
EARLY...CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS BY MIDDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION. TEMPS WILL MODERATE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50.

SOME LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AREAS MON NIGHT BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE AS FRONT CLEARS THE COAST.
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ALSO PUSHES E WITH NW FLOW KICKING BACK IN.
HOWEVER...CORE OF H85 COLD AIR REMAINS N OF THE REGION. WILL STILL
SEE COOLER TEMPS...BUT LOWS WILL ONLY FALL BACK TO THE UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
FAST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES...BRINGING ONE SYSTEM ACROSS. WITH WIDE
TIMING ISSUES AMONGST INDIVIDUAL MODELS...HAVE RATHER LOW
CONFIDENCE. FOR NOW...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TUE...THEN POSSIBLE
SHOWERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED. LOOKS TO DRY OUT AGAIN BY MIDDAY WED.
WARM FRONT MAY BRING CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP WED
NIGHT/THU.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON. OBSERVED
VALUES LIFR IN THE EAST AND MIXED VFR/MVFR IN CT AND WESTERN MASS.
EXPECT THE LIFR TO LINGER IN THE EAST WITH MVFR IN CT AND WESTERN
MASS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR IN THE WEST AND
MVFR CIGS IN THE EAST.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES IN WITH MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR
VSBYS. TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH DURING THE NIGHT TO CHANGE ANY
RAIN TO SNOW. MOST OF THE IFR VSBYS SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED IN
EASTERN MASS AND POSSIBLY RI. THIS CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE 30S WHICH
SHOULD CHANGE THE SNOW TO RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...WHILE THE
INTERIOR REMAINS SNOW.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT...LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA EARLY
IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING FROM N-S BY MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS. CLOUDS INCREASE FROM
W-E SUN NIGHT...MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF
W MA.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT RAIN
SHOWERS. CHANCE OF -SHSN ACROSS CENTRAL-W MA/N CT THROUGH MIDDAY
MONDAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM W-E MONDAY NIGHT...VFR ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...
NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. LINGERING SEAS
OF 5 TO 9 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AND RHODE ISLAND/BLOCK ISLAND
SOUNDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ON THESE WATERS.

TONIGHT...NORTH WINDS PICK UP AS COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND A
DISTUBANCE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS
ON THE OUTER WATERS WITH SEAS LINGERING AT 5-6 FEET.

SATURDAY...CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS REACHING 25 KNOTS ON THE OUTER
WATERS. CONTINUED ROUGH SEAS 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ON CAPE COD BAY AND
NANTUCKET SOUND AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND RI WATERS HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT...BRIEF LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE ON PORTIONS
OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO BRIEFLY DIMINISH BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA AS WINDS BACK FROM NW TO SW SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS
ALSO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SW WINDS PICK UP DURING MONDAY...GUSTING TO 25
KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7 FT. WINDS SHIFT TO W MON NIGHT-TUE
WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5
FT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 270236
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1036 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CROSSING SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

SURFACE OBS AT 10 PM SHOWED SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS SOUTH COAST AND
NORTH WINDS ACROSS BOSTON AND THE INTERIOR. THE COLD FRONT...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT LINE...EXTENDED FROM MARSHFIELD ACROSS
THE CITY OF PROVIDENCE TO THE SOUTHWEST CONNECTICUT COAST.
OBSERVED MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT TRENDS OFF NANTUCKET ROUGHLY 06Z-
07Z.

RADAR SHOWED AT 10 PM ONE AREA OF SHOWERS ALONG AND LEADING THIS
FRONT. A SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS EXTENDED FROM SOUTHWEST NH ACROSS
WESTERN MASS AND WESTERN CT TO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...WITH A
NORTHEAST MOTION. BACK EDGE OF ALL THE SHOWERS TRENDS TO THE CT
VALLEY AROUND 1 AM AND TO THE EAST COAST OF MASS AROUND 4-5 AM. SO
THE CURRENT FORECAST OF CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SHOWERS LOOKS FINE.
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND POSITIONING OF THE UPPER JET /RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OVERHEAD/ TO SUPPORT SCATTERED OR WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS BEYOND THE RAIN SHIELD.

COLDER AIR ON THE EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD HAS THE POTENTIAL OF
BRINGING A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO THE SHOWERS IN WESTERN/CENTRAL MASS
AND ADJACENT CT TOWARD MORNING.

TEMPS IN THE SOUTHEAST WILL REMAIN STEADY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT
SLIPS THROUGH. COOLING TREND NORTH AND WEST OF THE FRONT WITH
TEMPS DROPPING BACK INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
FRIDAY...

MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BEHIND THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR
RAIN TO CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY MORNING.  AS WE
MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS SECTION...IT MAY BECOME JUST COLD ENOUGH
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MASS FOR A CHANGE TO WET SNOW BEFORE
PRECIPITATION ENDS.  THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT FOR MOST OF THE REGION BY
AFTERNOON AS BEST FORCING DEPARTS...BUT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. ACROSS THE
REST OF THE REGION...PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL LINGER EVEN THOUGH THE
RAIN WILL HAVE COME TO AN END.  HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING
* WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

LONG TERM AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. BEYOND THIS WEEKEND...MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THE LONG WAVE
TROUGHING THAT HAS BEEN NEARLY A CONSTANT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
MONTHS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E...BUT WILL
BRING A FAST NW FLOW ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING FAST
MOVING WEAK SYSTEMS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. TIMING IS IN QUESTION DUE
TO FAST MOVEMENT LENDING TO WIDE OPERATIONAL MODEL VARIANCE ALONG
WITH LOWERED CONFIDENCE FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN LEANED
TOWARD THE SUPERBLEND ALONG WITH SOME BLENDING WITH THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS TO TRY AND RESOLVE TIMING OF SYSTEMS TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL FAST FLOW ALOFT WITH MORE
WAVES MOVING ALONG INTO FAST FLOW ALOFT INTO EASTER WEEKEND WHICH
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD
FRONT WORKS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS FRONT WEAKENS.
HOWEVER...STILL GOOD LIFT AND FORCING AS UPPER TROUGH WORKS E OUT
OF NY STATE OVERNIGHT. THIS...ALONG WITH COLD POOL ALOFT...WILL
CAUSE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
GENERALLY A TENTH OF A INCH OR LESS OF QPF EXPECTED...SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS POINT.
HOWEVER...

MOST MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL DEVELOPMENT OF
INVERTED TROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
LOW PASSES WELL S OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. WITH THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR
ENHANCEMENT OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. EXPECT PRECIP TO REMAIN MAINLY
AS LIGHT SNOW... THOUGH TEMPS MIGHT RISE ENOUGH /MID-UPPER 30S/ TO
MIX/CHANGE TO RAIN AROUND MIDDAY BUT CHANGE BACK SNOW BEFORE
TAPERING OFF FROM N-S LATE IN THE DAY OR SAT EVENING.

BIG QUESTION AT THIS POINT WILL BE WHETHER AND...IF SO WHERE...
THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL SET UP TO FOCUS THE INSTABILITY AND
PRECIP. GENERALLY...EXPECT LESS THAN AN INCH. BUT...IF THIS DOES
SET UP...SOME LOCATIONS MIGHT SEE A SLUSHY 1-2 INCH ACCUMULATION.
LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS ASPECT BUT SOMETHING TO DEFINITELY KEEP
AN EYE ON.

OVERNIGHT LOWS FRI NIGHT WILL BE DROP TO THE LOWER-MID 30S ACROSS
THE HIGHER INLAND TERRAIN...RANGING TO AROUND FREEZING ALONG THE S
COAST. HOWEVER...WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH PRECIP...TEMPS
WILL NOT RISE MUCH ON SAT. HIGHS WILL ONLY RISE TO THE MID AND
UPPER 30S...MORE TYPICAL OF JANUARY RATHER THAN THE END OF MARCH.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MOST AREAS...THOUGH
SOME LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MIGHT LINGER ALONG THE S COAST. N
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS INLAND RANGING
TO THE UPPER 20S ON THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AS UPPER TROUGH FINALLY MOVES OFFSHORE...EXPECT HIGH PRES RIDGING
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BRING SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. AS
FAST NW FLOW ALOFT SETS UP...RIDGE WILL BUILD E DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN. WILL SEE SOME WARM
AIR ADVECTION WORK IN AS WINDS BACK TO W-SW...BUT NOT IN TIME FOR
TEMPS TO RECOVER SO HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S.

TEMPS WILL DROP A FEW DEGS SUN NIGHT AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE. NEXT FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW
APPROACHES. TIMING IS AN ISSUE...THOUGH LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE
MODEL SUITE HOLDS PRECIP OFF UNTIL MONDAY EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY A
FEW ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS THE E SLOPES OF THE
BERKSHIRES.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS BRINGING A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS
EARLY...CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS BY MIDDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION. TEMPS WILL MODERATE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50.

SOME LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AREAS MON NIGHT BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE AS FRONT CLEARS THE COAST.
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ALSO PUSHES E WITH NW FLOW KICKING BACK IN.
HOWEVER...CORE OF H85 COLD AIR REMAINS N OF THE REGION. WILL STILL
SEE COOLER TEMPS...BUT LOWS WILL ONLY FALL BACK TO THE UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
FAST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES...BRINGING ONE SYSTEM ACROSS. WITH WIDE
TIMING ISSUES AMONGST INDIVIDUAL MODELS...HAVE RATHER LOW
CONFIDENCE. FOR NOW...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TUE...THEN POSSIBLE
SHOWERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED. LOOKS TO DRY OUT AGAIN BY MIDDAY WED.
WARM FRONT MAY BRING CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP WED
NIGHT/THU.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT PERIODIC SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH MAINLY IFR
CONDITIONS. LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER...AREAS OF FOG AS WELL. NOTING
AREAS OF VLIFR VSBYS ALONG S COAST...CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WITH
SPOTTY VSBYS AOB 1/2SM AT TIMES ACROSS CT VALLEY INTO CENTRAL MA
MAINLY ACROSS THE WORCESTER HILLS. WILL SEE SLOW IMPROVEMENT BUT
REMAINING AT LEAST MVFR OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. LLWS WILL
CONTINUE AS SW LOW LEVEL JET AT 60-65 KNOTS ACROSS N CT/RI/E MA
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BETWEEN 07Z AND 09Z.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO
AN END FOR MOST OF THE REGION DURING THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH MAY
LINGER A BIT LONGER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST MA COAST. PTYPE MAY
ACTUALLY CHANGE TO A BIT OF WET SNOW BEFORE ENDING ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT ODDS OF ANY REAL ACCUMULATIONS ON RUNWAYS ARE
RATHER LOW. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR BY
AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH SOME MARGINAL MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST AT TIMES.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY MVFR CIGS/LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS
IN RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS FRI NIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW FRI NIGHT
AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. LESS THAN AN INCH OF SLUSHY
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED...BEST CHANCE AT KORH AS WELL AS
REMAINDER OF WORCESTER HILLS. PRECIP BRIEFLY CHANGES TO -SHRA
AROUND MIDDAY...THEN BACK TO -SHSN TOWARD NIGHTFALL.

SATURDAY NIGHT...LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA EARLY
IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING FROM N-S BY MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS. CLOUDS INCREASE FROM
W-E SUN NIGHT...MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF
W MA.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT RAIN
SHOWERS. CHANCE OF -SHSN ACROSS CENTRAL-W MA/N CT THROUGH MIDDAY
MONDAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM W-E MONDAY NIGHT...VFR ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT AT 10 PM WAS OVER
SOUTHEST MASS AND RI. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOLLOWED BY A SHIFT TO NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH/EAST OF NANTUCKET BY 3 AM.
SEAS LINGER AT 5 TO 9 FEET OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LEFT
OVER SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLDS ACROSS MOST OPEN WATERS THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT....N-NW WINDS GUSTING UP TO AROUND 25 KT BEHIND
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SEAS ALSO BUILD UP TO 6-8 FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS. SMALL CRAFTS NEEDED.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...NW WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 30 KT ON
THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS DURING SAT...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH SAT
NIGHT. SEAS MAY APPROACH 10 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS
SAT...THEN WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BUT REMAIN AOA 5 FT. BRIEF LIGHT
FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE ON PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO BRIEFLY DIMINISH BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA AS WINDS BACK FROM NW TO SW SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS
ALSO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SW WINDS PICK UP DURING MONDAY...GUSTING TO 25
KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7 FT. WINDS SHIFT TO W MON NIGHT-TUE
WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5
FT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1.25 INCHES
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. NOHRSC MODELING ADDS 1
TO 2 INCHES OF WATER FROM MELTING SNOW DUE TO DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S
TO NEAR 50.

THIS WILL BRING RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS THROUGH FRIDAY...
ESPECIALLY SMALLER ONES WHICH MAY APPROACH BANKFULL. HOWEVER...
GIVEN RAINFALL HAS BEEN SPREAD OUT OVER A LONG DURATION WITH MANY
DRY PERIODS DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS. BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL IN SHOWERS MAY RESULT IN TYPICAL NUISANCE POOR
DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING TONIGHT...BUT AGAIN NOTHING SIGNIFICANT
EXPECTED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ020>024.
RI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR RIZ005>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 270236
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1036 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CROSSING SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

SURFACE OBS AT 10 PM SHOWED SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS SOUTH COAST AND
NORTH WINDS ACROSS BOSTON AND THE INTERIOR. THE COLD FRONT...WITH
A SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT LINE...EXTENDED FROM MARSHFIELD ACROSS
THE CITY OF PROVIDENCE TO THE SOUTHWEST CONNECTICUT COAST.
OBSERVED MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT TRENDS OFF NANTUCKET ROUGHLY 06Z-
07Z.

RADAR SHOWED AT 10 PM ONE AREA OF SHOWERS ALONG AND LEADING THIS
FRONT. A SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS EXTENDED FROM SOUTHWEST NH ACROSS
WESTERN MASS AND WESTERN CT TO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...WITH A
NORTHEAST MOTION. BACK EDGE OF ALL THE SHOWERS TRENDS TO THE CT
VALLEY AROUND 1 AM AND TO THE EAST COAST OF MASS AROUND 4-5 AM. SO
THE CURRENT FORECAST OF CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SHOWERS LOOKS FINE.
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND POSITIONING OF THE UPPER JET /RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OVERHEAD/ TO SUPPORT SCATTERED OR WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS BEYOND THE RAIN SHIELD.

COLDER AIR ON THE EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD HAS THE POTENTIAL OF
BRINGING A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO THE SHOWERS IN WESTERN/CENTRAL MASS
AND ADJACENT CT TOWARD MORNING.

TEMPS IN THE SOUTHEAST WILL REMAIN STEADY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT
SLIPS THROUGH. COOLING TREND NORTH AND WEST OF THE FRONT WITH
TEMPS DROPPING BACK INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
FRIDAY...

MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BEHIND THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR
RAIN TO CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY MORNING.  AS WE
MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS SECTION...IT MAY BECOME JUST COLD ENOUGH
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MASS FOR A CHANGE TO WET SNOW BEFORE
PRECIPITATION ENDS.  THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT FOR MOST OF THE REGION BY
AFTERNOON AS BEST FORCING DEPARTS...BUT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. ACROSS THE
REST OF THE REGION...PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL LINGER EVEN THOUGH THE
RAIN WILL HAVE COME TO AN END.  HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING
* WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

LONG TERM AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. BEYOND THIS WEEKEND...MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THE LONG WAVE
TROUGHING THAT HAS BEEN NEARLY A CONSTANT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
MONTHS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E...BUT WILL
BRING A FAST NW FLOW ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING FAST
MOVING WEAK SYSTEMS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. TIMING IS IN QUESTION DUE
TO FAST MOVEMENT LENDING TO WIDE OPERATIONAL MODEL VARIANCE ALONG
WITH LOWERED CONFIDENCE FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN LEANED
TOWARD THE SUPERBLEND ALONG WITH SOME BLENDING WITH THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS TO TRY AND RESOLVE TIMING OF SYSTEMS TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL FAST FLOW ALOFT WITH MORE
WAVES MOVING ALONG INTO FAST FLOW ALOFT INTO EASTER WEEKEND WHICH
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD
FRONT WORKS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS FRONT WEAKENS.
HOWEVER...STILL GOOD LIFT AND FORCING AS UPPER TROUGH WORKS E OUT
OF NY STATE OVERNIGHT. THIS...ALONG WITH COLD POOL ALOFT...WILL
CAUSE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
GENERALLY A TENTH OF A INCH OR LESS OF QPF EXPECTED...SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS POINT.
HOWEVER...

MOST MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL DEVELOPMENT OF
INVERTED TROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
LOW PASSES WELL S OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. WITH THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR
ENHANCEMENT OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. EXPECT PRECIP TO REMAIN MAINLY
AS LIGHT SNOW... THOUGH TEMPS MIGHT RISE ENOUGH /MID-UPPER 30S/ TO
MIX/CHANGE TO RAIN AROUND MIDDAY BUT CHANGE BACK SNOW BEFORE
TAPERING OFF FROM N-S LATE IN THE DAY OR SAT EVENING.

BIG QUESTION AT THIS POINT WILL BE WHETHER AND...IF SO WHERE...
THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL SET UP TO FOCUS THE INSTABILITY AND
PRECIP. GENERALLY...EXPECT LESS THAN AN INCH. BUT...IF THIS DOES
SET UP...SOME LOCATIONS MIGHT SEE A SLUSHY 1-2 INCH ACCUMULATION.
LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS ASPECT BUT SOMETHING TO DEFINITELY KEEP
AN EYE ON.

OVERNIGHT LOWS FRI NIGHT WILL BE DROP TO THE LOWER-MID 30S ACROSS
THE HIGHER INLAND TERRAIN...RANGING TO AROUND FREEZING ALONG THE S
COAST. HOWEVER...WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH PRECIP...TEMPS
WILL NOT RISE MUCH ON SAT. HIGHS WILL ONLY RISE TO THE MID AND
UPPER 30S...MORE TYPICAL OF JANUARY RATHER THAN THE END OF MARCH.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MOST AREAS...THOUGH
SOME LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MIGHT LINGER ALONG THE S COAST. N
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS INLAND RANGING
TO THE UPPER 20S ON THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AS UPPER TROUGH FINALLY MOVES OFFSHORE...EXPECT HIGH PRES RIDGING
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BRING SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. AS
FAST NW FLOW ALOFT SETS UP...RIDGE WILL BUILD E DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN. WILL SEE SOME WARM
AIR ADVECTION WORK IN AS WINDS BACK TO W-SW...BUT NOT IN TIME FOR
TEMPS TO RECOVER SO HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S.

TEMPS WILL DROP A FEW DEGS SUN NIGHT AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE. NEXT FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW
APPROACHES. TIMING IS AN ISSUE...THOUGH LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE
MODEL SUITE HOLDS PRECIP OFF UNTIL MONDAY EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY A
FEW ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS THE E SLOPES OF THE
BERKSHIRES.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS BRINGING A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS
EARLY...CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS BY MIDDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION. TEMPS WILL MODERATE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50.

SOME LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AREAS MON NIGHT BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE AS FRONT CLEARS THE COAST.
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ALSO PUSHES E WITH NW FLOW KICKING BACK IN.
HOWEVER...CORE OF H85 COLD AIR REMAINS N OF THE REGION. WILL STILL
SEE COOLER TEMPS...BUT LOWS WILL ONLY FALL BACK TO THE UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
FAST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES...BRINGING ONE SYSTEM ACROSS. WITH WIDE
TIMING ISSUES AMONGST INDIVIDUAL MODELS...HAVE RATHER LOW
CONFIDENCE. FOR NOW...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TUE...THEN POSSIBLE
SHOWERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED. LOOKS TO DRY OUT AGAIN BY MIDDAY WED.
WARM FRONT MAY BRING CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP WED
NIGHT/THU.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT PERIODIC SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH MAINLY IFR
CONDITIONS. LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER...AREAS OF FOG AS WELL. NOTING
AREAS OF VLIFR VSBYS ALONG S COAST...CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WITH
SPOTTY VSBYS AOB 1/2SM AT TIMES ACROSS CT VALLEY INTO CENTRAL MA
MAINLY ACROSS THE WORCESTER HILLS. WILL SEE SLOW IMPROVEMENT BUT
REMAINING AT LEAST MVFR OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. LLWS WILL
CONTINUE AS SW LOW LEVEL JET AT 60-65 KNOTS ACROSS N CT/RI/E MA
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BETWEEN 07Z AND 09Z.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO
AN END FOR MOST OF THE REGION DURING THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH MAY
LINGER A BIT LONGER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST MA COAST. PTYPE MAY
ACTUALLY CHANGE TO A BIT OF WET SNOW BEFORE ENDING ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT ODDS OF ANY REAL ACCUMULATIONS ON RUNWAYS ARE
RATHER LOW. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR BY
AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH SOME MARGINAL MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST AT TIMES.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY MVFR CIGS/LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS
IN RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS FRI NIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW FRI NIGHT
AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. LESS THAN AN INCH OF SLUSHY
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED...BEST CHANCE AT KORH AS WELL AS
REMAINDER OF WORCESTER HILLS. PRECIP BRIEFLY CHANGES TO -SHRA
AROUND MIDDAY...THEN BACK TO -SHSN TOWARD NIGHTFALL.

SATURDAY NIGHT...LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA EARLY
IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING FROM N-S BY MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS. CLOUDS INCREASE FROM
W-E SUN NIGHT...MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF
W MA.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT RAIN
SHOWERS. CHANCE OF -SHSN ACROSS CENTRAL-W MA/N CT THROUGH MIDDAY
MONDAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM W-E MONDAY NIGHT...VFR ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT AT 10 PM WAS OVER
SOUTHEST MASS AND RI. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOLLOWED BY A SHIFT TO NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH/EAST OF NANTUCKET BY 3 AM.
SEAS LINGER AT 5 TO 9 FEET OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LEFT
OVER SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLDS ACROSS MOST OPEN WATERS THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT....N-NW WINDS GUSTING UP TO AROUND 25 KT BEHIND
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SEAS ALSO BUILD UP TO 6-8 FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS. SMALL CRAFTS NEEDED.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...NW WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 30 KT ON
THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS DURING SAT...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH SAT
NIGHT. SEAS MAY APPROACH 10 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS
SAT...THEN WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BUT REMAIN AOA 5 FT. BRIEF LIGHT
FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE ON PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO BRIEFLY DIMINISH BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA AS WINDS BACK FROM NW TO SW SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS
ALSO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SW WINDS PICK UP DURING MONDAY...GUSTING TO 25
KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7 FT. WINDS SHIFT TO W MON NIGHT-TUE
WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5
FT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1.25 INCHES
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. NOHRSC MODELING ADDS 1
TO 2 INCHES OF WATER FROM MELTING SNOW DUE TO DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S
TO NEAR 50.

THIS WILL BRING RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS THROUGH FRIDAY...
ESPECIALLY SMALLER ONES WHICH MAY APPROACH BANKFULL. HOWEVER...
GIVEN RAINFALL HAS BEEN SPREAD OUT OVER A LONG DURATION WITH MANY
DRY PERIODS DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS. BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL IN SHOWERS MAY RESULT IN TYPICAL NUISANCE POOR
DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING TONIGHT...BUT AGAIN NOTHING SIGNIFICANT
EXPECTED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ020>024.
RI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR RIZ005>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT
HYDROLOGY...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 270011
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
811 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.  WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

745 PM UPDATE...
MOST OF THE CONVECTION THAT CROSSED NE CT/RI/E MA OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. NOTING ANOTHER LINE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS E PA ON LATEST NE REGIONAL 88D RADAR WHICH
WILL TRAVERSE NE NEAR OR AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...WITH PREVIOUS CONVECTION TENDING TO STABILIZE THE
AIRMASS...A COUPLE OF TSTMS MAY MAKE IT ACROSS BUT NOT AS
ORGANIZED AS CURRENTLY DEPICTED ON RADAR.

APPEARS THAT COLD FRONT HAS WORKED INTO S NH AND W MA...THOUGH
NOTING TWO MORE WAVES WILL MOVE ALONG THIS FRONT...ONE OUT OF SE
PA ASSOCIATED WITH ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND THE SECOND FROM W VA/W
NC. THIS WILL BRING A COUPLE MORE AREAS OF SHOWERS WITH LOCALIZED
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

NOTING PATCHY DENSE FOG REPORTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CT VALLEY
AS WELL AS ACROSS THE WORCESTER HILLS AS WINDS ARE EITHER LIGHT
N-NW OR CALM THERE. VSBYS RANGING FROM 1/4SM TO 1SM...NOT STEADILY
REDUCED SO NOT PLANNING ON EXPANDING DENSE FOG ADVISORY THERE AT
THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. VSBYS APPEAR TO BE IMPROVING
WITH STEADY SW WINDS ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS...THOUGH WHEN THE WINDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THE VSBYS LOWER
AGAIN. WILL HANG ON TO THE ADVISORY THERE FOR NOW.

HAVE UPDATED NEAR TERM FORECAST TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT
CONSIDERING FLUCTUATING VSBYS/FOG AND AREAS OF SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WILL SEE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...BUT COLD FRONT
DROPPING DOWN INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP. BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN
TYPICAL POOR DRAINAGE NUISANCE STREET FLOODING...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED.

PRETTY GOOD BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS NOTED BEHIND THE
ACTUAL SURFACE COLD FRONT. THEREFORE...EXPECT RAIN TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. IN
FACT...COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. IF PRECIPITATION INTENSITY IS ENOUGH...DYNAMIC COOLING
MAY ALLOW RAIN TO CHANGE TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF WET SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF INTERIOR MASS TOWARD DAYBREAK. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS JUST A DUSTING TO LESS THAN 1 INCH OF
SNOW...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH OUR CURRENT THINKING. HOWEVER...THE
NAM MODEL IS MOST ROBUST WITH IT ACTUALLY SHOWING THE POTENTIAL
FOR A NARROW SWATH OF 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE WORCESTER
HILLS. GIVEN THAT BOUNDARY LAYER IS MARGINAL...FEEL THAT IS A LOW
PROBABILITY BUT WE CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
FRIDAY...

MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BEHIND THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR
RAIN TO CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY MORNING.  AS WE
MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS SECTION...IT MAY BECOME JUST COLD ENOUGH
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MASS FOR A CHANGE TO WET SNOW BEFORE
PRECIPITATION ENDS.  THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT FOR MOST OF THE REGION BY
AFTERNOON AS BEST FORCING DEPARTS...BUT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. ACROSS THE
REST OF THE REGION...PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL LINGER EVEN THOUGH THE
RAIN WILL HAVE COME TO AN END.  HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING
* WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

LONG TERM AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. BEYOND THIS WEEKEND...MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THE LONG WAVE
TROUGHING THAT HAS BEEN NEARLY A CONSTANT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
MONTHS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E...BUT WILL
BRING A FAST NW FLOW ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING FAST
MOVING WEAK SYSTEMS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. TIMING IS IN QUESTION DUE
TO FAST MOVEMENT LENDING TO WIDE OPERATIONAL MODEL VARIANCE ALONG
WITH LOWERED CONFIDENCE FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN LEANED
TOWARD THE SUPERBLEND ALONG WITH SOME BLENDING WITH THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS TO TRY AND RESOLVE TIMING OF SYSTEMS TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL FAST FLOW ALOFT WITH MORE
WAVES MOVING ALONG INTO FAST FLOW ALOFT INTO EASTER WEEKEND WHICH
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD
FRONT WORKS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS FRONT WEAKENS.
HOWEVER...STILL GOOD LIFT AND FORCING AS UPPER TROUGH WORKS E OUT
OF NY STATE OVERNIGHT. THIS...ALONG WITH COLD POOL ALOFT...WILL
CAUSE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
GENERALLY A TENTH OF A INCH OR LESS OF QPF EXPECTED...SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS POINT.
HOWEVER...

MOST MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL DEVELOPMENT OF
INVERTED TROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
LOW PASSES WELL S OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. WITH THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR
ENHANCEMENT OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. EXPECT PRECIP TO REMAIN MAINLY
AS LIGHT SNOW... THOUGH TEMPS MIGHT RISE ENOUGH /MID-UPPER 30S/ TO
MIX/CHANGE TO RAIN AROUND MIDDAY BUT CHANGE BACK SNOW BEFORE
TAPERING OFF FROM N-S LATE IN THE DAY OR SAT EVENING.

BIG QUESTION AT THIS POINT WILL BE WHETHER AND...IF SO WHERE...
THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL SET UP TO FOCUS THE INSTABILITY AND
PRECIP. GENERALLY...EXPECT LESS THAN AN INCH. BUT...IF THIS DOES
SET UP...SOME LOCATIONS MIGHT SEE A SLUSHY 1-2 INCH ACCUMULATION.
LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS ASPECT BUT SOMETHING TO DEFINITELY KEEP
AN EYE ON.

OVERNIGHT LOWS FRI NIGHT WILL BE DROP TO THE LOWER-MID 30S ACROSS
THE HIGHER INLAND TERRAIN...RANGING TO AROUND FREEZING ALONG THE S
COAST. HOWEVER...WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH PRECIP...TEMPS
WILL NOT RISE MUCH ON SAT. HIGHS WILL ONLY RISE TO THE MID AND
UPPER 30S...MORE TYPICAL OF JANUARY RATHER THAN THE END OF MARCH.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MOST AREAS...THOUGH
SOME LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MIGHT LINGER ALONG THE S COAST. N
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS INLAND RANGING
TO THE UPPER 20S ON THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AS UPPER TROUGH FINALLY MOVES OFFSHORE...EXPECT HIGH PRES RIDGING
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BRING SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. AS
FAST NW FLOW ALOFT SETS UP...RIDGE WILL BUILD E DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN. WILL SEE SOME WARM
AIR ADVECTION WORK IN AS WINDS BACK TO W-SW...BUT NOT IN TIME FOR
TEMPS TO RECOVER SO HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S.

TEMPS WILL DROP A FEW DEGS SUN NIGHT AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE. NEXT FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW
APPROACHES. TIMING IS AN ISSUE...THOUGH LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE
MODEL SUITE HOLDS PRECIP OFF UNTIL MONDAY EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY A
FEW ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS THE E SLOPES OF THE
BERKSHIRES.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS BRINGING A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS
EARLY...CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS BY MIDDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION. TEMPS WILL MODERATE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50.

SOME LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AREAS MON NIGHT BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE AS FRONT CLEARS THE COAST.
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ALSO PUSHES E WITH NW FLOW KICKING BACK IN.
HOWEVER...CORE OF H85 COLD AIR REMAINS N OF THE REGION. WILL STILL
SEE COOLER TEMPS...BUT LOWS WILL ONLY FALL BACK TO THE UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
FAST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES...BRINGING ONE SYSTEM ACROSS. WITH WIDE
TIMING ISSUES AMONGST INDIVIDUAL MODELS...HAVE RATHER LOW
CONFIDENCE. FOR NOW...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TUE...THEN POSSIBLE
SHOWERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED. LOOKS TO DRY OUT AGAIN BY MIDDAY WED.
WARM FRONT MAY BRING CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP WED
NIGHT/THU.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT PERIODIC SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH MAINLY IFR
CONDITIONS. LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER...AREAS OF FOG AS WELL. NOTING
AREAS OF VLIFR VSBYS ALONG S COAST...CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WITH
SPOTTY VSBYS AOB 1/2SM AT TIMES ACROSS CT VALLEY INTO CENTRAL MA
MAINLY ACROSS THE WORCESTER HILLS. WILL SEE SLOW IMPROVEMENT BUT
REMAINING AT LEAST MVFR OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. LLWS WILL
CONTINUE AS SW LOW LEVEL JET AT 60-65 KNOTS ACROSS N CT/RI/E MA
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BETWEEN 07Z AND 09Z.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO
AN END FOR MOST OF THE REGION DURING THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH MAY
LINGER A BIT LONGER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST MA COAST. PTYPE MAY
ACTUALLY CHANGE TO A BIT OF WET SNOW BEFORE ENDING ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT ODDS OF ANY REAL ACCUMULATIONS ON RUNWAYS ARE
RATHER LOW. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR BY
AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH SOME MARGINAL MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST AT TIMES.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY MVFR CIGS/LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS
IN RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS FRI NIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW FRI NIGHT
AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. LESS THAN AN INCH OF SLUSHY
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED...BEST CHANCE AT KORH AS WELL AS
REMAINDER OF WORCESTER HILLS. PRECIP BRIEFLY CHANGES TO -SHRA
AROUND MIDDAY...THEN BACK TO -SHSN TOWARD NIGHTFALL.

SATURDAY NIGHT...LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA EARLY
IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING FROM N-S BY MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS. CLOUDS INCREASE FROM
W-E SUN NIGHT...MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF
W MA.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT RAIN
SHOWERS. CHANCE OF -SHSN ACROSS CENTRAL-W MA/N CT THROUGH MIDDAY
MONDAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM W-E MONDAY NIGHT...VFR ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. HIGH DEWPOINT AIR WILL ALSO RESULT IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 5 AND 9 FEET ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LEFT
OVER SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLDS ACROSS MOST OPEN WATERS THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT....N-NW WINDS GUSTING UP TO AROUND 25 KT BEHIND
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SEAS ALSO BUILD UP TO 6-8 FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS. SMALL CRAFTS NEEDED.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...NW WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 30 KT ON
THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS DURING SAT...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH SAT
NIGHT. SEAS MAY APPROACH 10 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS
SAT...THEN WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BUT REMAIN AOA 5 FT. BRIEF LIGHT
FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE ON PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO BRIEFLY DIMINISH BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA AS WINDS BACK FROM NW TO SW SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS
ALSO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SW WINDS PICK UP DURING MONDAY...GUSTING TO 25
KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7 FT. WINDS SHIFT TO W MON NIGHT-TUE
WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5
FT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1.25 INCHES
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. NOHRSC MODELING ADDS 1
TO 2 INCHES OF WATER FROM MELTING SNOW DUE TO DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S
TO NEAR 50.

THIS WILL BRING RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS THROUGH FRIDAY...
ESPECIALLY SMALLER ONES WHICH MAY APPROACH BANKFULL. HOWEVER...
GIVEN RAINFALL HAS BEEN SPREAD OUT OVER A LONG DURATION WITH MANY
DRY PERIODS DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS. BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL IN SHOWERS MAY RESULT IN TYPICAL NUISANCE POOR
DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING TONIGHT...BUT AGAIN NOTHING SIGNIFICANT
EXPECTED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ020>024.
RI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR RIZ005>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK/EVT
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT
HYDROLOGY...FRANK




000
FXUS61 KBOX 270011
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
811 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.  WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

745 PM UPDATE...
MOST OF THE CONVECTION THAT CROSSED NE CT/RI/E MA OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. NOTING ANOTHER LINE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS E PA ON LATEST NE REGIONAL 88D RADAR WHICH
WILL TRAVERSE NE NEAR OR AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...WITH PREVIOUS CONVECTION TENDING TO STABILIZE THE
AIRMASS...A COUPLE OF TSTMS MAY MAKE IT ACROSS BUT NOT AS
ORGANIZED AS CURRENTLY DEPICTED ON RADAR.

APPEARS THAT COLD FRONT HAS WORKED INTO S NH AND W MA...THOUGH
NOTING TWO MORE WAVES WILL MOVE ALONG THIS FRONT...ONE OUT OF SE
PA ASSOCIATED WITH ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND THE SECOND FROM W VA/W
NC. THIS WILL BRING A COUPLE MORE AREAS OF SHOWERS WITH LOCALIZED
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

NOTING PATCHY DENSE FOG REPORTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CT VALLEY
AS WELL AS ACROSS THE WORCESTER HILLS AS WINDS ARE EITHER LIGHT
N-NW OR CALM THERE. VSBYS RANGING FROM 1/4SM TO 1SM...NOT STEADILY
REDUCED SO NOT PLANNING ON EXPANDING DENSE FOG ADVISORY THERE AT
THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. VSBYS APPEAR TO BE IMPROVING
WITH STEADY SW WINDS ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS...THOUGH WHEN THE WINDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THE VSBYS LOWER
AGAIN. WILL HANG ON TO THE ADVISORY THERE FOR NOW.

HAVE UPDATED NEAR TERM FORECAST TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT
CONSIDERING FLUCTUATING VSBYS/FOG AND AREAS OF SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WILL SEE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...BUT COLD FRONT
DROPPING DOWN INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP. BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN
TYPICAL POOR DRAINAGE NUISANCE STREET FLOODING...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED.

PRETTY GOOD BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS NOTED BEHIND THE
ACTUAL SURFACE COLD FRONT. THEREFORE...EXPECT RAIN TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. IN
FACT...COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. IF PRECIPITATION INTENSITY IS ENOUGH...DYNAMIC COOLING
MAY ALLOW RAIN TO CHANGE TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF WET SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF INTERIOR MASS TOWARD DAYBREAK. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS JUST A DUSTING TO LESS THAN 1 INCH OF
SNOW...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH OUR CURRENT THINKING. HOWEVER...THE
NAM MODEL IS MOST ROBUST WITH IT ACTUALLY SHOWING THE POTENTIAL
FOR A NARROW SWATH OF 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE WORCESTER
HILLS. GIVEN THAT BOUNDARY LAYER IS MARGINAL...FEEL THAT IS A LOW
PROBABILITY BUT WE CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
FRIDAY...

MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BEHIND THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR
RAIN TO CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY MORNING.  AS WE
MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS SECTION...IT MAY BECOME JUST COLD ENOUGH
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MASS FOR A CHANGE TO WET SNOW BEFORE
PRECIPITATION ENDS.  THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT FOR MOST OF THE REGION BY
AFTERNOON AS BEST FORCING DEPARTS...BUT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. ACROSS THE
REST OF THE REGION...PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL LINGER EVEN THOUGH THE
RAIN WILL HAVE COME TO AN END.  HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING
* WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

LONG TERM AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. BEYOND THIS WEEKEND...MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THE LONG WAVE
TROUGHING THAT HAS BEEN NEARLY A CONSTANT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
MONTHS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E...BUT WILL
BRING A FAST NW FLOW ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING FAST
MOVING WEAK SYSTEMS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. TIMING IS IN QUESTION DUE
TO FAST MOVEMENT LENDING TO WIDE OPERATIONAL MODEL VARIANCE ALONG
WITH LOWERED CONFIDENCE FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN LEANED
TOWARD THE SUPERBLEND ALONG WITH SOME BLENDING WITH THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS TO TRY AND RESOLVE TIMING OF SYSTEMS TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL FAST FLOW ALOFT WITH MORE
WAVES MOVING ALONG INTO FAST FLOW ALOFT INTO EASTER WEEKEND WHICH
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD
FRONT WORKS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS FRONT WEAKENS.
HOWEVER...STILL GOOD LIFT AND FORCING AS UPPER TROUGH WORKS E OUT
OF NY STATE OVERNIGHT. THIS...ALONG WITH COLD POOL ALOFT...WILL
CAUSE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
GENERALLY A TENTH OF A INCH OR LESS OF QPF EXPECTED...SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS POINT.
HOWEVER...

MOST MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL DEVELOPMENT OF
INVERTED TROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
LOW PASSES WELL S OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. WITH THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR
ENHANCEMENT OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. EXPECT PRECIP TO REMAIN MAINLY
AS LIGHT SNOW... THOUGH TEMPS MIGHT RISE ENOUGH /MID-UPPER 30S/ TO
MIX/CHANGE TO RAIN AROUND MIDDAY BUT CHANGE BACK SNOW BEFORE
TAPERING OFF FROM N-S LATE IN THE DAY OR SAT EVENING.

BIG QUESTION AT THIS POINT WILL BE WHETHER AND...IF SO WHERE...
THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL SET UP TO FOCUS THE INSTABILITY AND
PRECIP. GENERALLY...EXPECT LESS THAN AN INCH. BUT...IF THIS DOES
SET UP...SOME LOCATIONS MIGHT SEE A SLUSHY 1-2 INCH ACCUMULATION.
LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS ASPECT BUT SOMETHING TO DEFINITELY KEEP
AN EYE ON.

OVERNIGHT LOWS FRI NIGHT WILL BE DROP TO THE LOWER-MID 30S ACROSS
THE HIGHER INLAND TERRAIN...RANGING TO AROUND FREEZING ALONG THE S
COAST. HOWEVER...WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH PRECIP...TEMPS
WILL NOT RISE MUCH ON SAT. HIGHS WILL ONLY RISE TO THE MID AND
UPPER 30S...MORE TYPICAL OF JANUARY RATHER THAN THE END OF MARCH.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MOST AREAS...THOUGH
SOME LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MIGHT LINGER ALONG THE S COAST. N
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS INLAND RANGING
TO THE UPPER 20S ON THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AS UPPER TROUGH FINALLY MOVES OFFSHORE...EXPECT HIGH PRES RIDGING
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BRING SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. AS
FAST NW FLOW ALOFT SETS UP...RIDGE WILL BUILD E DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN. WILL SEE SOME WARM
AIR ADVECTION WORK IN AS WINDS BACK TO W-SW...BUT NOT IN TIME FOR
TEMPS TO RECOVER SO HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S.

TEMPS WILL DROP A FEW DEGS SUN NIGHT AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE. NEXT FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW
APPROACHES. TIMING IS AN ISSUE...THOUGH LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE
MODEL SUITE HOLDS PRECIP OFF UNTIL MONDAY EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY A
FEW ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS THE E SLOPES OF THE
BERKSHIRES.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS BRINGING A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS
EARLY...CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS BY MIDDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION. TEMPS WILL MODERATE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50.

SOME LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AREAS MON NIGHT BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE AS FRONT CLEARS THE COAST.
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ALSO PUSHES E WITH NW FLOW KICKING BACK IN.
HOWEVER...CORE OF H85 COLD AIR REMAINS N OF THE REGION. WILL STILL
SEE COOLER TEMPS...BUT LOWS WILL ONLY FALL BACK TO THE UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
FAST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES...BRINGING ONE SYSTEM ACROSS. WITH WIDE
TIMING ISSUES AMONGST INDIVIDUAL MODELS...HAVE RATHER LOW
CONFIDENCE. FOR NOW...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TUE...THEN POSSIBLE
SHOWERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED. LOOKS TO DRY OUT AGAIN BY MIDDAY WED.
WARM FRONT MAY BRING CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP WED
NIGHT/THU.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT PERIODIC SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH MAINLY IFR
CONDITIONS. LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER...AREAS OF FOG AS WELL. NOTING
AREAS OF VLIFR VSBYS ALONG S COAST...CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WITH
SPOTTY VSBYS AOB 1/2SM AT TIMES ACROSS CT VALLEY INTO CENTRAL MA
MAINLY ACROSS THE WORCESTER HILLS. WILL SEE SLOW IMPROVEMENT BUT
REMAINING AT LEAST MVFR OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. LLWS WILL
CONTINUE AS SW LOW LEVEL JET AT 60-65 KNOTS ACROSS N CT/RI/E MA
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BETWEEN 07Z AND 09Z.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO
AN END FOR MOST OF THE REGION DURING THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH MAY
LINGER A BIT LONGER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST MA COAST. PTYPE MAY
ACTUALLY CHANGE TO A BIT OF WET SNOW BEFORE ENDING ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT ODDS OF ANY REAL ACCUMULATIONS ON RUNWAYS ARE
RATHER LOW. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR BY
AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH SOME MARGINAL MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST AT TIMES.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY MVFR CIGS/LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS
IN RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS FRI NIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW FRI NIGHT
AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. LESS THAN AN INCH OF SLUSHY
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED...BEST CHANCE AT KORH AS WELL AS
REMAINDER OF WORCESTER HILLS. PRECIP BRIEFLY CHANGES TO -SHRA
AROUND MIDDAY...THEN BACK TO -SHSN TOWARD NIGHTFALL.

SATURDAY NIGHT...LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA EARLY
IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING FROM N-S BY MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS. CLOUDS INCREASE FROM
W-E SUN NIGHT...MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF
W MA.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT RAIN
SHOWERS. CHANCE OF -SHSN ACROSS CENTRAL-W MA/N CT THROUGH MIDDAY
MONDAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM W-E MONDAY NIGHT...VFR ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. HIGH DEWPOINT AIR WILL ALSO RESULT IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 5 AND 9 FEET ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LEFT
OVER SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLDS ACROSS MOST OPEN WATERS THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT....N-NW WINDS GUSTING UP TO AROUND 25 KT BEHIND
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SEAS ALSO BUILD UP TO 6-8 FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS. SMALL CRAFTS NEEDED.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...NW WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 30 KT ON
THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS DURING SAT...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH SAT
NIGHT. SEAS MAY APPROACH 10 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS
SAT...THEN WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BUT REMAIN AOA 5 FT. BRIEF LIGHT
FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE ON PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO BRIEFLY DIMINISH BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA AS WINDS BACK FROM NW TO SW SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS
ALSO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SW WINDS PICK UP DURING MONDAY...GUSTING TO 25
KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7 FT. WINDS SHIFT TO W MON NIGHT-TUE
WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5
FT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1.25 INCHES
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. NOHRSC MODELING ADDS 1
TO 2 INCHES OF WATER FROM MELTING SNOW DUE TO DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S
TO NEAR 50.

THIS WILL BRING RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS THROUGH FRIDAY...
ESPECIALLY SMALLER ONES WHICH MAY APPROACH BANKFULL. HOWEVER...
GIVEN RAINFALL HAS BEEN SPREAD OUT OVER A LONG DURATION WITH MANY
DRY PERIODS DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS. BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL IN SHOWERS MAY RESULT IN TYPICAL NUISANCE POOR
DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING TONIGHT...BUT AGAIN NOTHING SIGNIFICANT
EXPECTED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ020>024.
RI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR RIZ005>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK/EVT
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT
HYDROLOGY...FRANK



000
FXUS61 KBOX 270011
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
811 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.  WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

745 PM UPDATE...
MOST OF THE CONVECTION THAT CROSSED NE CT/RI/E MA OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. NOTING ANOTHER LINE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS E PA ON LATEST NE REGIONAL 88D RADAR WHICH
WILL TRAVERSE NE NEAR OR AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...WITH PREVIOUS CONVECTION TENDING TO STABILIZE THE
AIRMASS...A COUPLE OF TSTMS MAY MAKE IT ACROSS BUT NOT AS
ORGANIZED AS CURRENTLY DEPICTED ON RADAR.

APPEARS THAT COLD FRONT HAS WORKED INTO S NH AND W MA...THOUGH
NOTING TWO MORE WAVES WILL MOVE ALONG THIS FRONT...ONE OUT OF SE
PA ASSOCIATED WITH ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND THE SECOND FROM W VA/W
NC. THIS WILL BRING A COUPLE MORE AREAS OF SHOWERS WITH LOCALIZED
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

NOTING PATCHY DENSE FOG REPORTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CT VALLEY
AS WELL AS ACROSS THE WORCESTER HILLS AS WINDS ARE EITHER LIGHT
N-NW OR CALM THERE. VSBYS RANGING FROM 1/4SM TO 1SM...NOT STEADILY
REDUCED SO NOT PLANNING ON EXPANDING DENSE FOG ADVISORY THERE AT
THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. VSBYS APPEAR TO BE IMPROVING
WITH STEADY SW WINDS ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS...THOUGH WHEN THE WINDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THE VSBYS LOWER
AGAIN. WILL HANG ON TO THE ADVISORY THERE FOR NOW.

HAVE UPDATED NEAR TERM FORECAST TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT
CONSIDERING FLUCTUATING VSBYS/FOG AND AREAS OF SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WILL SEE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...BUT COLD FRONT
DROPPING DOWN INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP. BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN
TYPICAL POOR DRAINAGE NUISANCE STREET FLOODING...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED.

PRETTY GOOD BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS NOTED BEHIND THE
ACTUAL SURFACE COLD FRONT. THEREFORE...EXPECT RAIN TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. IN
FACT...COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. IF PRECIPITATION INTENSITY IS ENOUGH...DYNAMIC COOLING
MAY ALLOW RAIN TO CHANGE TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF WET SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF INTERIOR MASS TOWARD DAYBREAK. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS JUST A DUSTING TO LESS THAN 1 INCH OF
SNOW...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH OUR CURRENT THINKING. HOWEVER...THE
NAM MODEL IS MOST ROBUST WITH IT ACTUALLY SHOWING THE POTENTIAL
FOR A NARROW SWATH OF 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE WORCESTER
HILLS. GIVEN THAT BOUNDARY LAYER IS MARGINAL...FEEL THAT IS A LOW
PROBABILITY BUT WE CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
FRIDAY...

MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BEHIND THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR
RAIN TO CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY MORNING.  AS WE
MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS SECTION...IT MAY BECOME JUST COLD ENOUGH
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MASS FOR A CHANGE TO WET SNOW BEFORE
PRECIPITATION ENDS.  THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT FOR MOST OF THE REGION BY
AFTERNOON AS BEST FORCING DEPARTS...BUT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. ACROSS THE
REST OF THE REGION...PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL LINGER EVEN THOUGH THE
RAIN WILL HAVE COME TO AN END.  HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING
* WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING SCT SHOWERS
* MODERATING TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

LONG TERM AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. BEYOND THIS WEEKEND...MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THE LONG WAVE
TROUGHING THAT HAS BEEN NEARLY A CONSTANT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
MONTHS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E...BUT WILL
BRING A FAST NW FLOW ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING FAST
MOVING WEAK SYSTEMS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. TIMING IS IN QUESTION DUE
TO FAST MOVEMENT LENDING TO WIDE OPERATIONAL MODEL VARIANCE ALONG
WITH LOWERED CONFIDENCE FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN LEANED
TOWARD THE SUPERBLEND ALONG WITH SOME BLENDING WITH THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS TO TRY AND RESOLVE TIMING OF SYSTEMS TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL FAST FLOW ALOFT WITH MORE
WAVES MOVING ALONG INTO FAST FLOW ALOFT INTO EASTER WEEKEND WHICH
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD
FRONT WORKS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS FRONT WEAKENS.
HOWEVER...STILL GOOD LIFT AND FORCING AS UPPER TROUGH WORKS E OUT
OF NY STATE OVERNIGHT. THIS...ALONG WITH COLD POOL ALOFT...WILL
CAUSE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
GENERALLY A TENTH OF A INCH OR LESS OF QPF EXPECTED...SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS POINT.
HOWEVER...

MOST MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL DEVELOPMENT OF
INVERTED TROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
LOW PASSES WELL S OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. WITH THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR
ENHANCEMENT OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. EXPECT PRECIP TO REMAIN MAINLY
AS LIGHT SNOW... THOUGH TEMPS MIGHT RISE ENOUGH /MID-UPPER 30S/ TO
MIX/CHANGE TO RAIN AROUND MIDDAY BUT CHANGE BACK SNOW BEFORE
TAPERING OFF FROM N-S LATE IN THE DAY OR SAT EVENING.

BIG QUESTION AT THIS POINT WILL BE WHETHER AND...IF SO WHERE...
THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL SET UP TO FOCUS THE INSTABILITY AND
PRECIP. GENERALLY...EXPECT LESS THAN AN INCH. BUT...IF THIS DOES
SET UP...SOME LOCATIONS MIGHT SEE A SLUSHY 1-2 INCH ACCUMULATION.
LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS ASPECT BUT SOMETHING TO DEFINITELY KEEP
AN EYE ON.

OVERNIGHT LOWS FRI NIGHT WILL BE DROP TO THE LOWER-MID 30S ACROSS
THE HIGHER INLAND TERRAIN...RANGING TO AROUND FREEZING ALONG THE S
COAST. HOWEVER...WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH PRECIP...TEMPS
WILL NOT RISE MUCH ON SAT. HIGHS WILL ONLY RISE TO THE MID AND
UPPER 30S...MORE TYPICAL OF JANUARY RATHER THAN THE END OF MARCH.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MOST AREAS...THOUGH
SOME LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MIGHT LINGER ALONG THE S COAST. N
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS INLAND RANGING
TO THE UPPER 20S ON THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
AS UPPER TROUGH FINALLY MOVES OFFSHORE...EXPECT HIGH PRES RIDGING
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BRING SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. AS
FAST NW FLOW ALOFT SETS UP...RIDGE WILL BUILD E DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN. WILL SEE SOME WARM
AIR ADVECTION WORK IN AS WINDS BACK TO W-SW...BUT NOT IN TIME FOR
TEMPS TO RECOVER SO HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S.

TEMPS WILL DROP A FEW DEGS SUN NIGHT AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE. NEXT FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW
APPROACHES. TIMING IS AN ISSUE...THOUGH LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE
MODEL SUITE HOLDS PRECIP OFF UNTIL MONDAY EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY A
FEW ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS THE E SLOPES OF THE
BERKSHIRES.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS BRINGING A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS
EARLY...CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS BY MIDDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION. TEMPS WILL MODERATE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50.

SOME LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AREAS MON NIGHT BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE AS FRONT CLEARS THE COAST.
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ALSO PUSHES E WITH NW FLOW KICKING BACK IN.
HOWEVER...CORE OF H85 COLD AIR REMAINS N OF THE REGION. WILL STILL
SEE COOLER TEMPS...BUT LOWS WILL ONLY FALL BACK TO THE UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
FAST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES...BRINGING ONE SYSTEM ACROSS. WITH WIDE
TIMING ISSUES AMONGST INDIVIDUAL MODELS...HAVE RATHER LOW
CONFIDENCE. FOR NOW...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TUE...THEN POSSIBLE
SHOWERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED. LOOKS TO DRY OUT AGAIN BY MIDDAY WED.
WARM FRONT MAY BRING CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP WED
NIGHT/THU.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT PERIODIC SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH MAINLY IFR
CONDITIONS. LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER...AREAS OF FOG AS WELL. NOTING
AREAS OF VLIFR VSBYS ALONG S COAST...CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WITH
SPOTTY VSBYS AOB 1/2SM AT TIMES ACROSS CT VALLEY INTO CENTRAL MA
MAINLY ACROSS THE WORCESTER HILLS. WILL SEE SLOW IMPROVEMENT BUT
REMAINING AT LEAST MVFR OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. LLWS WILL
CONTINUE AS SW LOW LEVEL JET AT 60-65 KNOTS ACROSS N CT/RI/E MA
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BETWEEN 07Z AND 09Z.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO
AN END FOR MOST OF THE REGION DURING THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH MAY
LINGER A BIT LONGER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST MA COAST. PTYPE MAY
ACTUALLY CHANGE TO A BIT OF WET SNOW BEFORE ENDING ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT ODDS OF ANY REAL ACCUMULATIONS ON RUNWAYS ARE
RATHER LOW. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR BY
AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH SOME MARGINAL MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST AT TIMES.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY MVFR CIGS/LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS
IN RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS FRI NIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW FRI NIGHT
AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. LESS THAN AN INCH OF SLUSHY
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED...BEST CHANCE AT KORH AS WELL AS
REMAINDER OF WORCESTER HILLS. PRECIP BRIEFLY CHANGES TO -SHRA
AROUND MIDDAY...THEN BACK TO -SHSN TOWARD NIGHTFALL.

SATURDAY NIGHT...LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA EARLY
IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING FROM N-S BY MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS. CLOUDS INCREASE FROM
W-E SUN NIGHT...MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF
W MA.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT RAIN
SHOWERS. CHANCE OF -SHSN ACROSS CENTRAL-W MA/N CT THROUGH MIDDAY
MONDAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM W-E MONDAY NIGHT...VFR ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. HIGH DEWPOINT AIR WILL ALSO RESULT IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 5 AND 9 FEET ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LEFT
OVER SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLDS ACROSS MOST OPEN WATERS THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT....N-NW WINDS GUSTING UP TO AROUND 25 KT BEHIND
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SEAS ALSO BUILD UP TO 6-8 FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS. SMALL CRAFTS NEEDED.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...NW WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 30 KT ON
THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS DURING SAT...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH SAT
NIGHT. SEAS MAY APPROACH 10 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS
SAT...THEN WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BUT REMAIN AOA 5 FT. BRIEF LIGHT
FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE ON PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO BRIEFLY DIMINISH BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA AS WINDS BACK FROM NW TO SW SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS
ALSO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SW WINDS PICK UP DURING MONDAY...GUSTING TO 25
KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7 FT. WINDS SHIFT TO W MON NIGHT-TUE
WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5
FT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1.25 INCHES
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. NOHRSC MODELING ADDS 1
TO 2 INCHES OF WATER FROM MELTING SNOW DUE TO DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S
TO NEAR 50.

THIS WILL BRING RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS THROUGH FRIDAY...
ESPECIALLY SMALLER ONES WHICH MAY APPROACH BANKFULL. HOWEVER...
GIVEN RAINFALL HAS BEEN SPREAD OUT OVER A LONG DURATION WITH MANY
DRY PERIODS DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS. BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL IN SHOWERS MAY RESULT IN TYPICAL NUISANCE POOR
DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING TONIGHT...BUT AGAIN NOTHING SIGNIFICANT
EXPECTED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ020>024.
RI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR RIZ005>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ232>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK/EVT
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT
HYDROLOGY...FRANK



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