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000
FXUS61 KBOX 301146
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
746 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY DELIVER A
GLANCING BLOW TO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BUT THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR A HIGHER IMPACT STILL EXISTS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER
FOLLOWS WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND BY NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
745 AM UPDATE...

JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE QUICKER THAN WEDNESDAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

FOR TODAY...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH PRES APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY AS H5 SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE
REGION...PUSHING OFFSHORE BY MIDDAY. H85 TEMPS DO FALL DURING THE
DAY...THOUGH LOOKS LIKE THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR REMAINS TO THE N.
TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR LATE OCTOBER...TOPPING OFF IN THE
50S. EXPECT LIGHT W-NW WINDS WITH A LIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
EXPECT THE WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE TO BUILD E ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. LIGHT N WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH WILL VEER TO
NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAY SEE SOME MORE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN THE
NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS.

NOTING LOW PRES OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AS A DIGGING H5
SHORT WAVE DIVES SE. SW FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE...SO COULD
SEE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WORK INTO WESTERN AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH THE COLDER AIR WORKING IN ALONG WITH A GENERAL
LIGHT WIND IN PLACE...EXPECT LOWS FALLING BACK TO THE 30S FOR MOST
AREAS...RANGING TO LOWER-MID 40S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY FOR
S/E COASTAL MA AND RI.

FRIDAY...
MAJOR DIGGING H5 LONG WAVE TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW TAKES SHAPE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WHICH SETS UP AN
INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HOWEVER...AT
THE SURFACE...GENERAL LIGHT FLOW CONTINUES THOUGH E-NE WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO FRESHEN DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE S COAST. BIG
QUESTION AT THIS POINT...WHERE LOW PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLC
OR SE U.S. COAST FRI AFTERNOON.

EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
FLOW IN PLACE. THIS WILL HOLD TEMPS BACK. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW NH/W MA...RANGING TO
THE LOWER-MID 50S ELSEWHERE.

AT THIS POINT...NOT EXPECTING ORGANIZED PRECIP DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AS BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE REMAINS S OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER...COULD SEE SOME OCEAN INDUCED LIGHT SPRINKLES OR EVEN
SOME COASTAL DRIZZLE. DID NOT MENTION THIS FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* GLANCING BLOW MOST LIKELY SAT/EARLY SUNDAY...BUT GREATER IMPACT
  STILL POSSIBLE
* BIGGEST CONCERN IS STRONG WINDS THIS WEEKEND ESPECIALLY CAPE COD
* ACCUMULATING SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE...BUT A LOW PROBABILITY
* MUCH MILDER WEATHER RETURNS BY NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW...30/00Z GUIDANCE HAD COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
REGARDING THEIR HANDLING OF A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM THIS
WEEKEND. THERE ARE A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT SUGGEST A CLOSER
TRACK TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS POSSIBLE...BUT NOT VERY
LIKELY. THE PREDOMINANT SIGNAL IS FOR A TRACK REMAINING SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. WILL FAVOR A CONSENSUS BLEND TO
SMOOTH OVER AS MANY MINOR DIFFERENCES AS POSSIBLE.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS MODERATE FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD. THE BIGGEST CONCERN REMAIN POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO PERHAPS
DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET. THERE
ARE TWO MAIN SHORTWAVES INVOLVED IN THIS STORM/S FORMATION.
INITIALLY...MOST MODELS FORM AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OR
EVEN TWO CENTERS BEFORE CONSOLIDATING INTO A SINGLE PRIMARY STORM.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS HAPPENS TOO LATE FOR A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN/SNOW EVENT IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

PRECIPITATION TYPE AND TIMING...A LOT OF THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW
FAR WEST THE MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD REACHES. MOST OF THE
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...WHICH
WOULD ALSO SUGGEST A RATHER SHARP WESTERN EDGE TO THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD. MINOR WOBBLES IN THE TRACK...COULD HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON WHERE THIS EDGE TO THE PRECIPITATION
ESTABLISHES ITSELF.

INITIALLY...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR JUST
SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY. IN FACT...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN
SECTIONS IF THE CURRENT TRACK VERIFIES. IF THIS TRACK SHIFTS WEST
AND WE END UP GETTING INTO HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY...DYNAMIC COOLING COULD RESULT IN SOME SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...BASED ON THE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TRACK...ACCUMULATING
SNOW IS A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY. REGARDLESS...MOST PRECIPITATION
SHOULD HAVE EXITED OUR REGION BY MID MORNING SUNDAY.

STRONG WINDS...
STRONG WINDS ARE THE ONE THING WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT WILL
DEVELOP. EXCELLENT MIXING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS STORM SHOULD
RESULT IN NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH DEVELOPING
LATE SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS MIXING INCREASES. ACROSS
CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THIS STORM...WE
MAY SEE A PERIOD OF 50 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. WIND ADVISORIES MAY
BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AND PERHAPS HIGH WIND
WATCHES/WARNINGS FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET. GIVEN MANY TREES
STILL HAVE AT LEAST SOME LEAVES ON THEM...THE RISK FOR TREE DAMAGE
AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WILL BE ENHANCED.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND WE ENTER AN
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED
WITH SOME OF THE COASTAL PLAIN POSSIBLY SEEING HIGHS BREAK 60 BY
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVER THIS TIME...BUT A
SPOT SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TOWARD WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE FRIDAY.

TODAY...MVFR-IFR VSBYS IMPROVE BY 13Z ACROSS CT VALLEY...
OTHERWISE VFR. SCT-BKN CLOUDS 4-5KFT FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAY SEE LOCAL
MVFR-IFR ACROSS SW NH INTO NW MA LATE. SHALLOW PATCHY GROUND FOG
POSSIBLE AT PRONE TERMINALS.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO E-NE DURING DAY...INCREASING
ALONG COAST TO 10-15 KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE IN DAY.
MAY SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP ALONG E COAST TERMINALS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WIDELY SCT SHOWERS ALONG S COAST POSSIBLE LATE.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR TO START BUT ONSHORE FLOW
MAY RESULT IN MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING. A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS VFR TO
BE MIXED AT TIMES WITH MVFR LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
LOWER CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY ALONG THE COAST WITH RAIN OR
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

LOW PROBABILITY FOR A CHANGE TO SNOW AT THE END. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE SUNDAY...BUT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS EXPECTED. STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS E
AND S OF CAPE COD THIS MORNING. EXPECTING WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

TONIGHT...LIGHT NE WINDS AND SEAS UP TO 3 FT.

FRIDAY...WINDS BECOME E-NE BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. SEAS SLOWLY INCREASE TO 3 FT ON SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH MONDAY...

***STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS AND 20 FOOT SEAS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY
 INTO SUNDAY ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF
 MASSACHUSETTS***

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. INCREASING NE WINDS. GUSTS UP TO
30 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HIGH IMPACT MARINE
EVENT EXPECTED. WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND
TIMING OF A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE...HIGH CONFIDENCE GALE FORCE
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS ACROSS MOST WATERS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
IN FACT...MODERATE RISK FOR A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS
WITH 20 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF
MASSACHUSETTS. EXACT WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL DEPEND UPON
THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE. A MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED TO ADDRESS THESE CONCERNS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. NORTHWEST 25-30 KT WIND GUSTS AND
SEAS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY WITH GOOD MIXING IN THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. NONETHELESS...THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY FOR
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING/EROSION ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST AS WELL
AS PORTIONS OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. THE CONCERN IS FOR THE
EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY. IF WE END UP REALIZING 20 FOOT
SEAS OVER THE OPEN OCEAN AND NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50
KNOTS...THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND EROSION.
SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS WOULD BE SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND...
HULL...SCITUATE AND PERHAPS SANDWICH HARBOR AND NANTUCKET HARBOR.
AGAIN...IT WILL DEPEND ON EXACT WIND SPEEDS/WAVE HEIGHTS OUT OVER
THE OCEAN DURING THE EARLY MORNING SUNDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...BELK/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 300847
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
447 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY DELIVER A
GLANCING BLOW TO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BUT THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR A HIGHER IMPACT STILL EXISTS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER
FOLLOWS WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND BY NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

LAST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE CLEARED THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET AT
08Z...THOUGH NOTING SOME MORE SHOWERS LINGERING WELL S OF LONG
ISLAND THAT MIGHT CLIP NANTUCKET THROUGH MID MORNING. HAVE KEPT A
DRY FORECAST GOING THERE...FOR NOW. PATCHY FOG...WITH VSBYS
LOCALLY LOWERED TO 1/2 MILE OR LESS...ACROSS THE CT VALLEY WILL
DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH PRES APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY AS H5 SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE
REGION...PUSHING OFFSHORE BY MIDDAY. H85 TEMPS DO FALL DURING THE
DAY...THOUGH LOOKS LIKE THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR REMAINS TO THE N.
TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR LATE OCTOBER...TOPPING OFF IN THE
50S. EXPECT LIGHT W-NW WINDS WITH A LIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...

TONIGHT...
EXPECT THE WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE TO BUILD E ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. LIGHT N WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH WILL VEER TO
NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAY SEE SOME MORE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN THE
NORMALLY PRONE VALLEY AREAS.

NOTING LOW PRES OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AS A DIGGING H5
SHORT WAVE DIVES SE. SW FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE...SO COULD
SEE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WORK INTO WESTERN AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH THE COLDER AIR WORKING IN ALONG WITH A GENERAL
LIGHT WIND IN PLACE...EXPECT LOWS FALLING BACK TO THE 30S FOR MOST
AREAS...RANGING TO LOWER-MID 40S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY FOR
S/E COASTAL MA AND RI.

FRIDAY...
MAJOR DIGGING H5 LONG WAVE TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW TAKES SHAPE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WHICH SETS UP AN
INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HOWEVER...AT
THE SURFACE...GENERAL LIGHT FLOW CONTINUES THOUGH E-NE WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO FRESHEN DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE S COAST. BIG
QUESTION AT THIS POINT...WHERE LOW PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLC
OR SE U.S. COAST FRI AFTERNOON.

EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL ONSHORE
FLOW IN PLACE. THIS WILL HOLD TEMPS BACK. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW NH/W MA...RANGING TO
THE LOWER-MID 50S ELSEWHERE.

AT THIS POINT...NOT EXPECTING ORGANIZED PRECIP DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AS BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE REMAINS S OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER...COULD SEE SOME OCEAN INDUCED LIGHT SPRINKLES OR EVEN
SOME COASTAL DRIZZLE. DID NOT MENTION THIS FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* GLANCING BLOW MOST LIKELY SAT/EARLY SUNDAY...BUT GREATER IMPACT
  STILL POSSIBLE
* BIGGEST CONCERN IS STRONG WINDS THIS WEEKEND ESPECIALLY CAPE COD
* ACCUMULATING SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE...BUT A LOW PROBABILITY
* MUCH MILDER WEATHER RETURNS BY NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW...
30/00Z GUIDANCE HAD COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THEIR
HANDLING OF A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM THIS WEEKEND. THERE ARE A
FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT SUGGEST A CLOSER TRACK TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND REMAINS POSSIBLE...BUT NOT VERY LIKELY. THE PREDOMINANT
SIGNAL IS FOR A TRACK REMAINING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK. WILL FAVOR A CONSENSUS BLEND TO SMOOTH OVER AS MANY
MINOR DIFFERENCES AS POSSIBLE.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS MODERATE FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD. THE BIGGEST CONCERN REMAIN POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO PERHAPS
DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET. THERE
ARE TWO MAIN SHORTWAVES INVOLVED IN THIS STORM/S FORMATION.
INITIALLY...MOST MODELS FORM AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OR
EVEN TWO CENTERS BEFORE CONSOLIDATING INTO A SINGLE PRIMARY STORM.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS HAPPENS TOO LATE FOR A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN/SNOW EVENT IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

PRECIPITATION TYPE AND TIMING...
A LOT OF THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR WEST THE MAIN PRECIPITATION
SHIELD REACHES. MOST OF THE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OFFSHORE...WHICH WOULD ALSO SUGGEST A RATHER SHARP WESTERN
EDGE TO THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. MINOR WOBBLES IN THE
TRACK...COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON WHERE THIS EDGE TO THE
PRECIPITATION ESTABLISHES ITSELF.

INITIALLY...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR JUST
SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY. IN FACT...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN
SECTIONS IF THE CURRENT TRACK VERIFIES. IF THIS TRACK SHIFTS WEST
AND WE END UP GETTING INTO HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY...DYNAMIC COOLING COULD RESULT IN SOME SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.  AGAIN...BASED ON THE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TRACK...
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY. REGARDLESS...MOST
PRECIPITATION SHOULD HAVE EXITED OUR REGION BY MID MORNING SUNDAY.

STRONG WINDS...
STRONG WINDS ARE THE ONE THING WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT WILL
DEVELOP. EXCELLENT MIXING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS STORM SHOULD
RESULT IN NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH DEVELOPING
LATE SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS MIXING INCREASES. ACROSS
CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THIS STORM...WE
MAY SEE A PERIOD OF 50 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. WIND ADVISORIES MAY
BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AND PERHAPS HIGH WIND
WATCHES/WARNINGS FOR THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET. GIVEN MANY TREES
STILL HAVE AT LEAST SOME LEAVES ON THEM...THE RISK FOR TREE DAMAGE
AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WILL BE ENHANCED.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND WE ENTER AN
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED
WITH SOME OF THE COASTAL PLAIN POSSIBLY SEEING HIGHS BREAK 60 BY
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVER THIS TIME...BUT A
SPOT SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TOWARD WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE FRIDAY.

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY FOG ACROSS CT VALLEY OF SW NH AND
W MA WITH LOCAL IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS AT NORMALLY PRONE AREAS
THROUGH 12Z. LOW PROB OF LOCAL MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS
INTERIOR E MA INTO NE CT BETWEEN 08Z-12Z.

TODAY...MVFR-IFR VSBYS IMPROVE BY 14Z ACROSS CT VALLEY...
OTHERWISE VFR. SCT-BKN CLOUDS 4-5KFT FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAY SEE LOCAL
MVFR-IFR ACROSS SW NH INTO NW MA LATE. SHALLOW PATCHY GROUND FOG
POSSIBLE AT PRONE TERMINALS.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO E-NE DURING DAY...INCREASING
ALONG COAST TO 10-15 KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE IN DAY.
MAY SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP ALONG E COAST TERMINALS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WIDELY SCT SHOWERS ALONG S COAST POSSIBLE LATE.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR TO START BUT ONSHORE FLOW
MAY RESULT IN MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING. A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS VFR TO
BE MIXED AT TIMES WITH MVFR LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
LOWER CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY ALONG THE COAST WITH RAIN OR
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

LOW PROBABILITY FOR A CHANGE TO SNOW AT THE END. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE SUNDAY...BUT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS EXPECTED. STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...LEFTOVER 5-6 FT SEAS AND GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL
DIMINISH TOWARD DAYBREAK.

TODAY...LEFTOVER 5 FT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS E AND S OF CAPE COD
SHOULD SUBSIDE BY MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

TONIGHT...LIGHT NE WINDS AND SEAS UP TO 3 FT.

FRIDAY...WINDS BECOME E-NE BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. SEAS SLOWLY INCREASE TO 3 FT ON SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH MONDAY...

***STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS AND 20 FOOT SEAS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY
 INTO SUNDAY ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF
 MASSACHUSETTS***

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. INCREASING NE WINDS. GUSTS UP TO
30 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HIGH IMPACT MARINE
EVENT EXPECTED. WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND
TIMING OF A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE...HIGH CONFIDENCE GALE FORCE
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS ACROSS MOST WATERS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
IN FACT... MODERATE RISK FOR A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS
WITH 20 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF
MASSACHUSETTS. EXACT WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL DEPEND UPON
THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE. A MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED TO ADDRESS THESE CONCERNS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. NORTHWEST 25-30 KT WIND GUSTS AND
SEAS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY WITH GOOD MIXING IN THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. NONETHELESS...THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY FOR
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING/EROSION ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST AS WELL
AS PORTIONS OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. THE CONCERN IS FOR THE
EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY. IF WE END UP REALIZING 20 FOOT
SEAS OVER THE OPEN OCEAN AND NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50
KNOTS...THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND EROSION.
SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS WOULD BE SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND...
HULL...SCITUATE AND PERHAPS SANDWICH HARBOR AND NANTUCKET HARBOR.
AGAIN...IT WILL DEPEND ON EXACT WIND SPEEDS/WAVE HEIGHTS OUT OVER
THE OCEAN DURING THE EARLY MORNING SUNDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BELK




000
FXUS61 KBOX 300705
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
305 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THROUGH
THE PRE DAWN HOURS. SEASONABLE AND DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS INTO THE
END OF THE WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY
DELIVER A GLANCING BLOW TO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...BUT THE OPPORTUNITY FOR A HIGHER IMPACT STILL EXISTS.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND BY
NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

210 AM UPDATE...

LINE OF SHOWERS TENDING TO DISSIPATE AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS SE ACROSS
THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET AT 06Z. SCT SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER
THOSE AREAS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE THE LINE FINALLY PUSHES
E. BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS HAVE STEADILY PUSHED E. HOWEVER...WITH THE
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN CLOSE TO THE
LOWERING DEWPTS ACROSS S NH AND DOWN THE CT VALLEY ACROSS W MA. A
FEW SPOTS HAVE VSBYS BELOW 1/2SM IN THE USUAL SUSPECTS /KEEN AND
KORE/. MID LEVEL CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS RI/SE MA BUT SHOULD PUSH
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

TEMPS HAVE FALLEN TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S WHERE SKIES HAVE
CLEARED AND CALM WINDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER CT
VALLEY...RANGING TO THE LOWER-MID 50S WHERE CLOUDS REMAIN ON THE S
COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS AT 06Z. LIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL
KEEP WINDS LIGHT THROUGH 12Z. DEWPTS WILL TAKE THEIR TIME FALLING
WITH THE LIGHT WINDS.

HAVE UPDATED NEAR TERM FORECAST TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT. MAIN
CHANGES WERE TO LOWER DEWPTS A BIT. SHORT RANGE MODELS NOT
HANDLING THE LOWER DEWPTS ALREADY IN THE CT VALLEY EXCEPT FOR SOME
OF THE NEAR TERM BIAS CORRECTED DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TODAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD E. SUBSIDENCE AND SINKING AIR IN
CONTROL OF THE REGIONS WEATHER. WITH A COOLER AIRMASS CONTINUING TO
BUILD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS /H85 JUST BELOW THE FREEZING MARK/
EXPECT A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER ALLOWING FOR DRIER AIR TO MIX-
DOWN /DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID-30S/ AND DEVELOPMENT OF A SCATTERED
CUMULUS DECK AROUND 5-6 KFT.

HIGHS AROUND THE 50S EXPECTED WHICH IS JUST ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. COLD
AIRMASS BELOW FREEZING REMAINS ALOFT. A GOOD CASE FOR EFFECTIVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING...THAT IS IF CLOUDS DO NOT BECOME AN ISSUE.

CONSIDERING DEWPOINTS AROUND THE MID-30S ON THURSDAY...IT IS
POSSIBLE LOCATIONS COULD COOL BELOW THE CROSSOVER THRESHOLD IF THE
CONDITIONS ARE RIGHT AND WE ARE ALLOWED TO RADIATE OUT EFFECTIVELY.
BUT BENEATH CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH WHICH WEAK IMPULSES WILL GLIDE...
THERE IS ALWAYS THAT POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCEMENT OF MID-LEVEL LIFT AND
CONVERGENCE YIELDING A BLANKETING CLOUD BASE.

IF CONDITIONS REMAIN CLEAR...THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO SPECULATE
THAT SHALLOW GROUND FOG WILL DEVELOP WHEREVER SOILS ARE SATURATED
/I.E. SWAMPY BOGS/. LOWS WOULD BOTTOM DOWN AROUND THE MID-30S...LOW-
30S FOR THOSE AREAS THAT RADIATE. WARMEST CONDITIONS ALONG THE
SHORES. BUT WILL GO CONSERVATIVE WITH THIS FORECAST CONSIDERING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS AND HOLD WITH LOWS AROUND THE
UPPER-30S. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FROST / FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE
NECESSARY FOR S/E COASTAL MA AND RI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COOL ON FRIDAY
* GLANCING BLOW FAVORED SAT/EARLY SUN BUT HIGHER IMPACT POSSIBLE
* BIGGEST CONCERN IS STRONG WINDS LATE SAT/SUN ESP CAPE COD
* ACCUMULATING SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE BUT A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY
* MUCH MILDER WEATHER RETURNS BY NEXT TUE AND WED

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...

AN ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL
RESULT IN A RATHER CLOUDY/COOL DAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS. A SPOT
SHOWER AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE
DRY. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ELSEWHERE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW OVER THIS TIME.  ENSEMBLE
SENSITIVITY PLOTS SHOW THE ENERGY RESPONSIBLE FOR DEVELOPING THE
EVENTUAL STORM IS STILL NEAR THE ARCTIC CIRCLE.  THIS LEAVES PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK/STRENGTH AND IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION.

WITH THAT SAID...CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A GLANCING BLOW AND
NOT A DIRECT HIT FOR OUR REGION.  THE BIGGEST CONCERN RIGHT NOW IS
FOR STRONG TO PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CAPE
AND NANTUCKET.  THERE ARE TWO MAIN SHORTWAVES INVOLVED IN STORM
FORMATION. INITIALLY...MOST MODELS FORM AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OR EVEN TWO CENTERS BEFORE CONSOLIDATING INTO ONE STORM.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS HAPPENS TOO LATE FOR A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN/SNOW EVENT IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

A BIG CAVEAT IS THAT THIS EVENT IS CURRENTLY PROGGED BETWEEN 72 AND
96 HOUR OUT...WHICH IS QUITE A BIT OF TIME IN THE MODEL WORLD.  IF
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE IS WEAKER THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED...THE STORM
WILL INTENSIFY EARLIER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST.  WHILE THIS IS A
LOWER PROBABILITY AT THIS POINT...ITS CERTAINLY IN THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITIES.  WHAT EVER HAPPENS...WE CAN SAY THAT EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT THAN THE INTERIOR.

PTYPE AND TIMING...

A LOT OF THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR WEST THE MAIN PRECIPITATION
SHIELD REACHES.  INITIALLY...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN OR JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY.  IN FACT...MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH JUST A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS IF THE CURRENT TRACK VERIFIES. IF
THE TRACK SHIFTS WEST AND WE END UP GETTING INTO HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUN...DYNAMIC COOLING WOULD CHANGE
PTYPE TO SNOW AT LEAST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  AGAIN...BASED ON
EXPECTED TRACK...ACCUMULATING SNOW IS A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY...BUT
STILL CAN/T BE RULED OUT. WHAT EVER HAPPENS...MOST PRECIPITATION
SHOULD HAVE EXITED THE REGION BY MID MORNING ON SUNDAY.

STRONG WINDS...

STRONG WINDS ARE THE ONE THING WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT WILL
DEVELOP.  EXCELLENT MIXING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM SHOULD
RESULT IN NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH DEVELOPING
LATE SAT AND ESPECIALLY SUN AS MIXING INCREASES.  ACROSS THE CAPE
AND NANTUCKET...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM MAY SEE A PERIOD
OF 50 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.  WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION AND PERHAPS HIGH WIND WATCHES/WARNINGS FOR THE CAPE
AND NANTUCKET.  GIVEN MANY TREES STILL HAVE AT LEAST SOME LEAVES ON
THEM...THE RISK FOR TREE DAMAGE AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WILL BE
ENHANCED.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

DEEP UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND WE ENTER AN AREA
OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.  A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED WITH
SOME OF THE COASTAL PLAIN POSSIBLY SEEING HIGHS BREAK 60 BY TUE OR
WED. MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVER THIS TIME...BUT A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE FRIDAY.

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY FOG ACROSS CT VALLEY OF SW NH AND
W MA WITH LOCAL IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS AT NORMALLY PRONE AREAS
THROUGH 12Z. LOW PROB OF LOCAL MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS
INTERIOR E MA INTO NE CT BETWEEN 08Z-12Z.

TODAY...MVFR-IFR VSBYS IMPROVE BY 14Z ACROSS CT VALLEY...OTHERWISE
VFR. SCT-BKN CLOUDS 4-5KFT FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAY SEE LOCAL
MVFR-IFR ACROSS SW NH INTO NW MA LATE. SHALLOW PATCHY GROUND FOG
POSSIBLE AT PRONE TERMINALS.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO E-NE DURING DAY...INCREASING
ALONG COAST TO 10-15 KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT LATE IN DAY.
MAY SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP ALONG E COAST TERMINALS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WIDELY SCT SHOWERS ALONG S COAST POSSIBLE LATE.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR TO START BUT ONSHORE FLOW
MAY RESULT IN MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING. A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON UNCERTAINTY OF
TRACK/STRENGTH AND TIMING OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO IS VFR TO BE MIXED IN AT TIMES WITH MVFR SAT INTO
SAT NIGHT. LOWER CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY AT THE COAST WITH RAIN OR
SCATTERED SHOWERS.  LOW PROBABILITY FOR A CHANGE TO SNOW AT THE END.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY SUNDAY...BUT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS EXPECTED.  STRONGEST WINDS CAPE AND
NANTUCKET WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...LEFTOVER 5-6 FT SEAS AND GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL
DIMINISH TOWARD DAYBREAK.

TODAY...LEFTOVER 5 FT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS E AND S OF CAPE COD
SHOULD SUBSIDE BY MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

TONIGHT...LIGHT NE WINDS AND SEAS UP TO 3 FT.

FRIDAY...WINDS BECOME E-NE BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. SEAS SLOWLY INCREASE TO 3 FT ON SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH MONDAY...

***STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS AND 20 FOOT SEAS POSSIBLE LATE SAT INTO
 SUNDAY ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS***

FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. INCREASING NE WINDS. GUSTS UP TO
25-30 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  HIGH IMPACT MARINE EVENT
EXPECTED.  WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING
OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE...GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS ACROSS
MOST WATERS ARE PRETTY MUCH A SLAM DUNK LATE SAT INTO SUN.  IN
FACT...DECENT CHANCE IN A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS WITH 20
FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS.
EXACT WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL DEPEND UPON THE EXACT
TRACK/INTENSITY OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE...BUT APPEARS THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE OF A HIGH IMPACT MARINE EVENT.  A MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENT WAS ISSUED TO ADDRESS THESE CONCERNS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWEST SCA WIND GUSTS AND SEAS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY WITH GOOD MIXING IN THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE LATE SAT INTO SUN.
NONETHELESS...THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING/EROSION ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET.  THE CONCERN IS FOR THE EARLY MORNING HIGH
TIDE ON SUNDAY.  IF WE END UP REALIZING 20 FOOT SEAS OVER THE OPEN
OCEAN AND NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS...THERE COULD BE
SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND EROSION.  SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS
WOULD BE SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND...HULL...SCITUATE AND PERHAPS
SANDWICH HARBOR AND NANTUCKET HARBOR.  AGAIN...IT WILL DEPEND ON
EXACT WIND SPEEDS/WAVE HEIGHTS OUT OVER THE OCEAN DURING THE EARLY
MORNING SUNDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 300310
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1110 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THROUGH
THE PRE DAWN HOURS. SEASONABLE AND DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS INTO THE
END OF THE WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY
DELIVER A GLANCING BLOW TO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...BUT THE OPPORTUNITY FOR A HIGHER IMPACT STILL EXISTS.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND BY
NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

1040 PM UPDATE...
BAND OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO SHIFT STEADILY E AS SEEN ON LATEST
NE 88D REGIONAL RADAR LOOP. THE COLD FRONT IS ACTUALLY JUST E OF
CAPE COD AT 02Z...AS THE DEWPTS HAVE DROPPED AND WINDS HAVE
SHIFTED TO LIGHT N-NW ACROSS MOST OF THE CAPE EXCEPT NANTUCKET
WHICH SHOULD SHIFT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

BAND OF SHOWERS TENDING TO BREAK APART ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT AS
DRIER AIR WORKS IN. WILL STILL SEE SCT SHOWERS ACROSS E MA/S RI AS
WELL AS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO...THEN
THE SHOWERS SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE. DEWPTS HAVE BEEN DROPPING
STEADILY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND NOTING SAME TREND ACROSS THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS. DEWPTS HAVE DROPPED TO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
BERKSHIRES INTO SW NH...AND WILL FILTER EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.

ALSO NOTING BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS WORKING E OUT OF SW NH/W MA ON
LATEST IR SATELLITE WHICH SHOULD ALSO PUSH E OVERNIGHT.

HAVE UPDATED POPS TO PUSH PRECIP OFFSHORE A BIT FASTER AS
SUGGESTED BY RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS THE SKY COVER. REMAINDER OF
FORECAST LOOKED IN GOOD SHAPE BUT DID BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.
MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ACROSS E MA/RI INTO S CENTRAL NH
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE THE DEWPTS DROP ALLOWING FOR DRIER
AIR TO MOVE IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TODAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD E. SUBSIDENCE AND SINKING AIR IN
CONTROL OF THE REGIONS WEATHER. WITH A COOLER AIRMASS CONTINUING TO
BUILD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS /H85 JUST BELOW THE FREEZING MARK/
EXPECT A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER ALLOWING FOR DRIER AIR TO MIX-
DOWN /DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID-30S/ AND DEVELOPMENT OF A SCATTERED
CUMULUS DECK AROUND 5-6 KFT.

HIGHS AROUND THE 50S EXPECTED WHICH IS JUST ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. COLD
AIRMASS BELOW FREEZING REMAINS ALOFT. A GOOD CASE FOR EFFECTIVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING...THAT IS IF CLOUDS DO NOT BECOME AN ISSUE.

CONSIDERING DEWPOINTS AROUND THE MID-30S ON THURSDAY...IT IS
POSSIBLE LOCATIONS COULD COOL BELOW THE CROSSOVER THRESHOLD IF THE
CONDITIONS ARE RIGHT AND WE ARE ALLOWED TO RADIATE OUT EFFECTIVELY.
BUT BENEATH CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH WHICH WEAK IMPULSES WILL GLIDE...
THERE IS ALWAYS THAT POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCEMENT OF MID-LEVEL LIFT AND
CONVERGENCE YIELDING A BLANKETING CLOUD BASE.

IF CONDITIONS REMAIN CLEAR...THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO SPECULATE
THAT SHALLOW GROUND FOG WILL DEVELOP WHEREVER SOILS ARE SATURATED
/I.E. SWAMPY BOGS/. LOWS WOULD BOTTOM DOWN AROUND THE MID-30S...LOW-
30S FOR THOSE AREAS THAT RADIATE. WARMEST CONDITIONS ALONG THE
SHORES. BUT WILL GO CONSERVATIVE WITH THIS FORECAST CONSIDERING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS AND HOLD WITH LOWS AROUND THE
UPPER-30S. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FROST / FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE
NECESSARY FOR S/E COASTAL MA AND RI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COOL ON FRIDAY
* GLANCING BLOW FAVORED SAT/EARLY SUN BUT HIGHER IMPACT POSSIBLE
* BIGGEST CONCERN IS STRONG WINDS LATE SAT/SUN ESP CAPE COD
* ACCUMULATING SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE BUT A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY
* MUCH MILDER WEATHER RETURNS BY NEXT TUE AND WED

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...

AN ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL
RESULT IN A RATHER CLOUDY/COOL DAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS. A SPOT
SHOWER AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE
DRY. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ELSEWHERE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW OVER THIS TIME.  ENSEMBLE
SENSITIVITY PLOTS SHOW THE ENERGY RESPONSIBLE FOR DEVELOPING THE
EVENTUAL STORM IS STILL NEAR THE ARCTIC CIRCLE.  THIS LEAVES PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK/STRENGTH AND IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION.

WITH THAT SAID...CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A GLANCING BLOW AND
NOT A DIRECT HIT FOR OUR REGION.  THE BIGGEST CONCERN RIGHT NOW IS
FOR STRONG TO PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CAPE
AND NANTUCKET.  THERE ARE TWO MAIN SHORTWAVES INVOLVED IN STORM
FORMATION. INITIALLY...MOST MODELS FORM AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OR EVEN TWO CENTERS BEFORE CONSOLIDATING INTO ONE STORM.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS HAPPENS TOO LATE FOR A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN/SNOW EVENT IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

A BIG CAVEAT IS THAT THIS EVENT IS CURRENTLY PROGGED BETWEEN 72 AND
96 HOUR OUT...WHICH IS QUITE A BIT OF TIME IN THE MODEL WORLD.  IF
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE IS WEAKER THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED...THE STORM
WILL INTENSIFY EARLIER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST.  WHILE THIS IS A
LOWER PROBABILITY AT THIS POINT...ITS CERTAINLY IN THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITIES.  WHAT EVER HAPPENS...WE CAN SAY THAT EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT THAN THE INTERIOR.

PTYPE AND TIMING...

A LOT OF THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR WEST THE MAIN PRECIPITATION
SHIELD REACHES.  INITIALLY...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN OR JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY.  IN FACT...MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH JUST A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS IF THE CURRENT TRACK VERIFIES. IF
THE TRACK SHIFTS WEST AND WE END UP GETTING INTO HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUN...DYNAMIC COOLING WOULD CHANGE
PTYPE TO SNOW AT LEAST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  AGAIN...BASED ON
EXPECTED TRACK...ACCUMULATING SNOW IS A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY...BUT
STILL CAN/T BE RULED OUT. WHAT EVER HAPPENS...MOST PRECIPITATION
SHOULD HAVE EXITED THE REGION BY MID MORNING ON SUNDAY.

STRONG WINDS...

STRONG WINDS ARE THE ONE THING WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT WILL
DEVELOP.  EXCELLENT MIXING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM SHOULD
RESULT IN NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH DEVELOPING
LATE SAT AND ESPECIALLY SUN AS MIXING INCREASES.  ACROSS THE CAPE
AND NANTUCKET...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM MAY SEE A PERIOD
OF 50 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.  WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION AND PERHAPS HIGH WIND WATCHES/WARNINGS FOR THE CAPE
AND NANTUCKET.  GIVEN MANY TREES STILL HAVE AT LEAST SOME LEAVES ON
THEM...THE RISK FOR TREE DAMAGE AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WILL BE
ENHANCED.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

DEEP UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND WE ENTER AN AREA
OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.  A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED WITH
SOME OF THE COASTAL PLAIN POSSIBLY SEEING HIGHS BREAK 60 BY TUE OR
WED. MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVER THIS TIME...BUT A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS
RESULTING IN LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. BAND
OF SHOWERS ACROSS E MA WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY 04Z-06Z. LOW PROB OF
LOCAL MVFR VSBYS IN BRIEF PATCHY FOG THROUGH 06Z-08Z ACROSS E
MA/RI/S CENTRAL NH TERMINALS BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS ARRIVE.

TODAY...VFR. LIGHT W-WINDS. SCT CIGS 4-5 KFT ACROSS INTERIOR
TERMINALS.

TONIGHT...VFR. LIGHT/VRB WINDS. SKC. SHALLOW PATCHY GROUND FOG
POSSIBLE AT PRONE TERMINALS.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR TO START BUT
ONSHORE FLOW MAY RESULT IN MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING FRI AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY FRI NIGHT.  A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON UNCERTAINTY OF
TRACK/STRENGTH AND TIMING OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO IS VFR TO BE MIXED IN AT TIMES WITH MVFR SAT INTO
SAT NIGHT. LOWER CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY AT THE COAST WITH RAIN OR
SCATTERED SHOWERS.  LOW PROBABILITY FOR A CHANGE TO SNOW AT THE END.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY SUNDAY...BUT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS EXPECTED.  STRONGEST WINDS CAPE AND
NANTUCKET WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS ALREADY VEERING TO W-NW ACROSS NEAR SHORE WATERS AT 03Z.
AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN...WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT ON THE OUTER WATERS
AND DIMINISH. SEAS REMAIN HIGH...UP TO 5-6 FT...BUT WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE. HAVE EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT...AS SEAS WILL BE A BIT SLOWER TO SUBSIDE.

LEFTOVER 5 FT SEAS MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING BUT SHOULD
SUBSIDE BY MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THOUGH MONDAY...

***STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS AND 20 FOOT SEAS POSSIBLE LATE SAT INTO
 SUNDAY ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS***

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL RESULT IN
EASTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS.  GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH
THOUGH TO KEEP WINDS SPEEDS/SEAS WELL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  HIGH IMPACT MARINE EVENT
EXPECTED.  WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING
OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE...GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS ACROSS
MOST WATERS ARE PRETTY MUCH A SLAM DUNK LATE SAT INTO SUN.  IN
FACT...DECENT CHANCE IN A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS WITH 20
FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS.
EXACT WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL DEPEND UPON THE EXACT
TRACK/INTENSITY OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE...BUT APPEARS THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE OF A HIGH IMPACT MARINE EVENT.  A MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENT WAS ISSUED TO ADDRESS THESE CONCERNS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWEST SCA WIND GUSTS AND SEAS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY WITH GOOD MIXING IN THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE LATE SAT INTO SUN.
NONETHELESS...THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING/EROSION ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET.  THE CONCERN IS FOR THE EARLY MORNING HIGH
TIDE ON SUNDAY.  IF WE END UP REALIZING 20 FOOT SEAS OVER THE OPEN
OCEAN AND NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS...THERE COULD BE
SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND EROSION.  SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS
WOULD BE SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND...HULL...SCITUATE AND PERHAPS
SANDWICH HARBOR AND NANTUCKET HARBOR.  AGAIN...IT WILL DEPEND ON
EXACT WIND SPEEDS/WAVE HEIGHTS OUT OVER THE OCEAN DURING THE EARLY
MORNING SUNDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...FRANK/EVT
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FRANK/SIPPRELL/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 292337
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
737 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SHOWERS CONCLUDE BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
SEASONABLE AND DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS INTO THE END OF THE WEEK
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY DELIVER A GLANCING
BLOW TO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BUT THE OPPORTUNITY
FOR A HIGHER IMPACT STILL EXISTS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS WITH
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND BY NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

735 PM UPDATE...

THE COLD HAS NOW PROGRESSED TO NEAR THE CAPE COD CANAL.  BAND OF
RAIN SHOWERS WAS LAGGING A BIT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT RESULTING IN SOME MID LEVEL LIFT. THE SHOWERS SHOULD NOT
LAST MORE THAN AN HOUR OR TWO IN A GIVEN LOCATION...BUT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL.  THE SHOWERS WERE NOW
LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL MA/NORTHEAST CONNECTICUT AND WILL REACH THE I-
95 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 830 AND 10 PM.  THE BAND OF SHOWERS WILL THEN BE
EXITING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AFTER 2 OR 3 AM.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE RATHER LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO LESS
THAN 0.15 INCHES.

MAIN TROUGH AXIS PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LIKELY
BLANKET OF MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS AND WET WEATHER WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS MILD TOWARDS SHORES WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-40S.
ELSEWHERE...GRADUAL CLEARING EXPECTED W TO E AS W-WINDS DRIVE COOLER
AND DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION. COOLEST CONDITIONS N AND W YET
WINDS /MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER/ WILL LIKELY LIMIT
EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECTING LOWS AROUND THE UPPER-30S.
MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ACROSS SOEM OF THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD E. SUBSIDENCE AND SINKING AIR IN
CONTROL OF THE REGIONS WEATHER. WITH A COOLER AIRMASS CONTINUING TO
BUILD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS /H85 JUST BELOW THE FREEZING MARK/
EXPECT A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER ALLOWING FOR DRIER AIR TO MIX-
DOWN /DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID-30S/ AND DEVELOPMENT OF A SCATTERED
CUMULUS DECK AROUND 5-6 KFT.

HIGHS AROUND THE 50S EXPECTED WHICH IS JUST ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. COLD
AIRMASS BELOW FREEZING REMAINS ALOFT. A GOOD CASE FOR EFFECTIVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING...THAT IS IF CLOUDS DO NOT BECOME AN ISSUE.

CONSIDERING DEWPOINTS AROUND THE MID-30S ON THURSDAY...IT IS
POSSIBLE LOCATIONS COULD COOL BELOW THE CROSSOVER THRESHOLD IF THE
CONDITIONS ARE RIGHT AND WE ARE ALLOWED TO RADIATE OUT EFFECTIVELY.
BUT BENEATH CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH WHICH WEAK IMPULSES WILL GLIDE...
THERE IS ALWAYS THAT POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCEMENT OF MID-LEVEL LIFT AND
CONVERGENCE YIELDING A BLANKETING CLOUD BASE.

IF CONDITIONS REMAIN CLEAR...THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO SPECULATE
THAT SHALLOW GROUND FOG WILL DEVELOP WHEREVER SOILS ARE SATURATED
/I.E. SWAMPY BOGS/. LOWS WOULD BOTTOM DOWN AROUND THE MID-30S...LOW-
30S FOR THOSE AREAS THAT RADIATE. WARMEST CONDITIONS ALONG THE
SHORES. BUT WILL GO CONSERVATIVE WITH THIS FORECAST CONSIDERING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS AND HOLD WITH LOWS AROUND THE
UPPER-30S. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FROST / FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE
NECESSARY FOR S/E COASTAL MA AND RI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* COOL ON FRIDAY
* GLANCING BLOW FAVORED SAT/EARLY SUN BUT HIGHER IMPACT POSSIBLE
* BIGGEST CONCERN IS STRONG WINDS LATE SAT/SUN ESP CAPE COD
* ACCUMULATING SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE BUT A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY
* MUCH MILDER WEATHER RETURNS BY NEXT TUE AND WED

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...

AN ENLONGATED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL RESULT
IN A RATHER CLOUDY/COOL DAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS.  A SPOT SHOWER AND
PERHAPS EVEN SOME DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY.  HIGHS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 50S ELSEWHERE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW OVER THIS TIME.  ENSEMBLE
SENSITIVITY PLOTS SHOW THE ENERGY RESPONSIBLE FOR DEVELOPING THE
EVENTUAL STORM IS STILL NEAR THE ARCTIC CIRCLE.  THIS LEAVES PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK/STRENGTH AND IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION.

WITH THAT SAID...CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A GLANCING BLOW AND
NOT A DIRECT HIT FOR OUR REGION.  THE BIGGEST CONCERN RIGHT NOW IS
FOR STRONG TO PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CAPE
AND NANTUCKET.  THERE ARE TWO MAIN SHORTWAVES INVOLVED IN STORM
FORMATION.  INITIALLY...MOST MODELS FORM AN ENLONGATED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OR EVEN TWO CENTERS BEFORE CONSOLIDATING INTO ONE STORM.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS HAPPENS TOO LATE FOR A SIGNIFICANT
RAIN/SNOW EVENT IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

A BIG CAVEAT IS THAT THIS EVENT IS CURRENTLY PROGGED BETWEEN 72 AND
96 HOUR OUT...WHICH IS QUITE A BIT OF TIME IN THE MODEL WORLD.  IF
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE IS WEAKER THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED...THE STORM
WILL INTENSIFY EARLIER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST.  WHILE THIS IS A
LOWER PROBABILITY AT THIS POINT...ITS CERTAINLY IN THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITIES.  WHAT EVER HAPPENS...WE CAN SAY THAT EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT THAN THE INTERIOR.

PTYPE AND TIMING...

A LOT OF THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR WEST THE MAIN PRECIPITATION
SHIELD REACHES.  INITIALLY...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN OR JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY.  IN FACT...MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH JUST A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS IF THE CURRENT TRACK VERIFIES. IF
THE TRACK SHIFTS WEST AND WE END UP GETTING INTO HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUN...DYNAMIC COOLING WOULD CHANGE
PTYPE TO SNOW AT LEAST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  AGAIN...BASED ON
EXPECTED TRACK...ACCUMULATING SNOW IS A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY...BUT
STILL CAN/T BE RULED OUT. WHAT EVER HAPPENS...MOST PRECIPITATION
SHOULD HAVE EXITED THE REGION BY MID MORNING ON SUNDAY.

STRONG WINDS...

STRONG WINDS ARE THE ONE THING WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT WILL
DEVELOP.  EXCELLENT MIXING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM SHOULD
RESULT IN NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH DEVELOPING
LATE SAT AND ESPECIALLY SUN AS MIXING INCREASES.  ACROSS THE CAPE
AND NANTUCKET...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM MAY SEE A PERIOD
OF 50 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.  WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION AND PERHAPS HIGH WIND WATCHES/WARNINGS FOR THE CAPE
AND NANTUCKET.  GIVEN MANY TREES STILL HAVE AT LEAST SOME LEAVES ON
THEM...THE RISK FOR TREE DAMAGE AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WILL BE
ENHANCED.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

DEEP UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND WE ENTER AN AREA
OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.  A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED WITH
SOME OF THE COASTAL PLAIN POSSIBLY SEEING HIGHS BREAK 60 BY TUE OR
WED. MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVER THIS TIME...BUT A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS RESULTING IN
LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.  SHOULD SEE ANY LEFT
OVER LOW CLOUDS SCOUR OUT BY 3Z.  IN ADDITION...A BAND OF SHOWERS
WAS WORKING THROUGH INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS
EVENING.  THESE SHOWERS SHOULD NOT LAST LONG IN A GIVEN LOCATION AND
EXIT THE CAPE/NANTUCKET BY 6 OR 7Z.

THURSDAY...VFR. LIGHT W-WINDS. SCT CIGS 4-5 KFT ACROSS INTERIOR
TERMINALS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT/VRB WINDS. SKC. SHALLOW PATCHY GROUND
FOG POSSIBLE AT PRONE TERMINALS.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR TO START BUT
ONSHORE FLOW MAY RESULT IN MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING FRI AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY FRI NIGHT.  A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON UNCERTAINTY OF
TRACK/STRENGTH AND TIMING OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO IS VFR TO BE MIXED IN AT TIMES WITH MVFR SAT INTO
SAT NIGHT. LOWER CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY AT THE COAST WITH RAIN OR
SCATTERED SHOWERS.  LOW PROBABILITY FOR A CHANGE TO SNOW AT THE END.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY SUNDAY...BUT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS EXPECTED.  STRONGEST WINDS CAPE AND
NANTUCKET WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS BACK W AND DIMINISH ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARDS
THURSDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW SMALL-
CRAFT THRESHOLDS UNDER LIGHT W-WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY...AND
ONTO THURSDAY NIGHT... LOOKS LIKE GOOD BOATING WEATHER.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THOUGH MONDAY...

***STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS AND 20 FOOT SEAS POSSIBLE LATE SAT INTO
  SUNDAY ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS***

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL RESULT IN
EASTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS.  GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH
THOUGH TO KEEP WINDS SPEEDS/SEAS WELL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  HIGH IMPACT MARINE EVENT
EXPECTED.  WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING
OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE...GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS ACROSS
MOST WATERS ARE PRETTY MUCH A SLAM DUNK LATE SAT INTO SUN.  IN
FACT...DECENT CHANCE IN A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS WITH 20
FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS.
EXACT WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL DEPEND UPON THE EXACT
TRACK/INTENSITY OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE...BUT APPEARS THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE OF A HIGH IMPACT MARINE EVENT.  A MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENT WAS ISSUED TO ADDRESS THESE CONCERNS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWEST SCA WIND GUSTS AND SEAS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY WITH GOOD MIXING IN THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE LATE SAT INTO SUN.
NONETHELESS...THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING/EROSION ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET.  THE CONCERN IS FOR THE EARLY MORNING HIGH
TIDE ON SUNDAY.  IF WE END UP REALIZING 20 FOOT SEAS OVER THE OPEN
OCEAN AND NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS...THERE COULD BE
SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND EROSION.  SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS
WOULD BE SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND...HULL...SCITUATE AND PERHAPS
SANDWICH HARBOR AND NANTUCKET HARBOR.  AGAIN...IT WILL DEPEND ON
EXACT WIND SPEEDS/WAVE HEIGHTS OUT OVER THE OCEAN DURING THE EARLY
MORNING SUNDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...SIPPRELL/FRANK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...FRANK




000
FXUS61 KBOX 292211
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
611 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SHOWERS CONCLUDE BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
SEASONABLE AND DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS INTO THE END OF THE WEEK
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY DELIVER A GLANCING
BLOW TO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BUT THE OPPORTUNITY
FOR A HIGHER IMPACT STILL EXISTS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS WITH
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND BY NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

610 PM UPDATE...

A COLD FRONT WAS NOW LOCATED ACROSS COASTAL RHODE ISLAND AND INTO
SOUTHEAST MA.  THERE ALSO WAS CURRENTLY A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NH AND INTO WESTERN MA EARLY THIS EVENING.  THE
SHOWERS WERE ACTUALLY A BIT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHERE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WAS PROVIDING SOME MID LEVEL LIFT.  THIS BAND OF SHOWERS
WILL NOT LAST MORE THAN A COUPLE HOURS IN A GIVEN LOCATION.  THE
SHOWERS SHOULD REACH THE I-95 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 8 AND 10 PM...FINALLY
EXITING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AFTER 2 OR 3 AM.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE RATHER LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY A TRACE TO LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH.

MAIN TROUGH AXIS PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LIKELY
BLANKET OF MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS AND WET WEATHER WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS MILD TOWARDS SHORES WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-40S.
ELSEWHERE...GRADUAL CLEARING EXPECTED W TO E AS W-WINDS DRIVE COOLER
AND DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION. COOLEST CONDITIONS N AND W YET
WINDS /MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER/ WILL LIKELY LIMIT
EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECTING LOWS AROUND THE UPPER-30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD E. SUBSIDENCE AND SINKING AIR IN
CONTROL OF THE REGIONS WEATHER. WITH A COOLER AIRMASS CONTINUING TO
BUILD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS /H85 JUST BELOW THE FREEZING MARK/
EXPECT A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER ALLOWING FOR DRIER AIR TO MIX-
DOWN /DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID-30S/ AND DEVELOPMENT OF A SCATTERED
CUMULUS DECK AROUND 5-6 KFT.

HIGHS AROUND THE 50S EXPECTED WHICH IS JUST ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. COLD
AIRMASS BELOW FREEZING REMAINS ALOFT. A GOOD CASE FOR EFFECTIVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING...THAT IS IF CLOUDS DO NOT BECOME AN ISSUE.

CONSIDERING DEWPOINTS AROUND THE MID-30S ON THURSDAY...IT IS
POSSIBLE LOCATIONS COULD COOL BELOW THE CROSSOVER THRESHOLD IF THE
CONDITIONS ARE RIGHT AND WE ARE ALLOWED TO RADIATE OUT EFFECTIVELY.
BUT BENEATH CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH WHICH WEAK IMPULSES WILL GLIDE...
THERE IS ALWAYS THAT POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCEMENT OF MID-LEVEL LIFT AND
CONVERGENCE YIELDING A BLANKETING CLOUD BASE.

IF CONDITIONS REMAIN CLEAR...THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO SPECULATE
THAT SHALLOW GROUND FOG WILL DEVELOP WHEREVER SOILS ARE SATURATED
/I.E. SWAMPY BOGS/. LOWS WOULD BOTTOM DOWN AROUND THE MID-30S...LOW-
30S FOR THOSE AREAS THAT RADIATE. WARMEST CONDITIONS ALONG THE
SHORES. BUT WILL GO CONSERVATIVE WITH THIS FORECAST CONSIDERING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS AND HOLD WITH LOWS AROUND THE
UPPER-30S. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FROST / FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE
NECESSARY FOR S/E COASTAL MA AND RI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* COOL ON FRIDAY
* GLANCING BLOW FAVORED SAT/EARLY SUN BUT HIGHER IMPACT POSSIBLE
* BIGGEST CONCERN IS STRONG WINDS LATE SAT/SUN ESP CAPE COD
* ACCUMULATING SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE BUT A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY
* MUCH MILDER WEATHER RETURNS BY NEXT TUE AND WED

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...

AN ENLONGATED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL RESULT
IN A RATHER CLOUDY/COOL DAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS.  A SPOT SHOWER AND
PERHAPS EVEN SOME DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY.  HIGHS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 50S ELSEWHERE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW OVER THIS TIME.  ENSEMBLE
SENSITIVITY PLOTS SHOW THE ENERGY RESPONSIBLE FOR DEVELOPING THE
EVENTUAL STORM IS STILL NEAR THE ARCTIC CIRCLE.  THIS LEAVES PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK/STRENGTH AND IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION.

WITH THAT SAID...CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A GLANCING BLOW AND
NOT A DIRECT HIT FOR OUR REGION.  THE BIGGEST CONCERN RIGHT NOW IS
FOR STRONG TO PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CAPE
AND NANTUCKET.  THERE ARE TWO MAIN SHORTWAVES INVOLVED IN STORM
FORMATION.  INITIALLY...MOST MODELS FORM AN ENLONGATED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OR EVEN TWO CENTERS BEFORE CONSOLIDATING INTO ONE STORM.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS HAPPENS TOO LATE FOR A SIGNIFICANT
RAIN/SNOW EVENT IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

A BIG CAVEAT IS THAT THIS EVENT IS CURRENTLY PROGGED BETWEEN 72 AND
96 HOUR OUT...WHICH IS QUITE A BIT OF TIME IN THE MODEL WORLD.  IF
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE IS WEAKER THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED...THE STORM
WILL INTENSIFY EARLIER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST.  WHILE THIS IS A
LOWER PROBABILITY AT THIS POINT...ITS CERTAINLY IN THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITIES.  WHAT EVER HAPPENS...WE CAN SAY THAT EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT THAN THE INTERIOR.

PTYPE AND TIMING...

A LOT OF THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR WEST THE MAIN PRECIPITATION
SHIELD REACHES.  INITIALLY...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN OR JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY.  IN FACT...MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH JUST A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS IF THE CURRENT TRACK VERIFIES. IF
THE TRACK SHIFTS WEST AND WE END UP GETTING INTO HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUN...DYNAMIC COOLING WOULD CHANGE
PTYPE TO SNOW AT LEAST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  AGAIN...BASED ON
EXPECTED TRACK...ACCUMULATING SNOW IS A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY...BUT
STILL CAN/T BE RULED OUT. WHAT EVER HAPPENS...MOST PRECIPITATION
SHOULD HAVE EXITED THE REGION BY MID MORNING ON SUNDAY.

STRONG WINDS...

STRONG WINDS ARE THE ONE THING WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT WILL
DEVELOP.  EXCELLENT MIXING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM SHOULD
RESULT IN NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH DEVELOPING
LATE SAT AND ESPECIALLY SUN AS MIXING INCREASES.  ACROSS THE CAPE
AND NANTUCKET...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM MAY SEE A PERIOD
OF 50 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.  WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION AND PERHAPS HIGH WIND WATCHES/WARNINGS FOR THE CAPE
AND NANTUCKET.  GIVEN MANY TREES STILL HAVE AT LEAST SOME LEAVES ON
THEM...THE RISK FOR TREE DAMAGE AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WILL BE
ENHANCED.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

DEEP UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND WE ENTER AN AREA
OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.  A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED WITH
SOME OF THE COASTAL PLAIN POSSIBLY SEEING HIGHS BREAK 60 BY TUE OR
WED. MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVER THIS TIME...BUT A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS RESULTING IN
LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.  SHOULD SEE ANY LEFT
OVER LOW CLOUDS SCOUR OUT BY 3Z.  IN ADDITION...A BAND OF SHOWERS
WAS WORKING THROUGH INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS
EVENING.  THESE SHOWERS SHOULD NOT LAST LONG IN A GIVEN LOCATION AND
EXIT THE CAPE/NANTUCKET BY 6 OR 7Z.

THURSDAY...VFR. LIGHT W-WINDS. SCT CIGS 4-5 KFT ACROSS INTERIOR
TERMINALS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT/VRB WINDS. SKC. SHALLOW PATCHY GROUND
FOG POSSIBLE AT PRONE TERMINALS.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR TO START BUT
ONSHORE FLOW MAY RESULT IN MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING FRI AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY FRI NIGHT.  A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON UNCERTAINTY OF
TRACK/STRENGTH AND TIMING OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO IS VFR TO BE MIXED IN AT TIMES WITH MVFR SAT INTO
SAT NIGHT. LOWER CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY AT THE COAST WITH RAIN OR
SCATTERED SHOWERS.  LOW PROBABILITY FOR A CHANGE TO SNOW AT THE END.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY SUNDAY...BUT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS EXPECTED.  STRONGEST WINDS CAPE AND
NANTUCKET WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS BACK W AND DIMINISH ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARDS
THURSDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW SMALL-
CRAFT THRESHOLDS UNDER LIGHT W-WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY...AND
ONTO THURSDAY NIGHT... LOOKS LIKE GOOD BOATING WEATHER.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THOUGH MONDAY...

***STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS AND 20 FOOT SEAS POSSIBLE LATE SAT INTO
  SUNDAY ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS***

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL RESULT IN
EASTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS.  GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH
THOUGH TO KEEP WINDS SPEEDS/SEAS WELL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  HIGH IMPACT MARINE EVENT
EXPECTED.  WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING
OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE...GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS ACROSS
MOST WATERS ARE PRETTY MUCH A SLAM DUNK LATE SAT INTO SUN.  IN
FACT...DECENT CHANCE IN A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS WITH 20
FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF MASSACHUSETTS.
EXACT WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL DEPEND UPON THE EXACT
TRACK/INTENSITY OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE...BUT APPEARS THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE OF A HIGH IMPACT MARINE EVENT.  A MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENT WAS ISSUED TO ADDRESS THESE CONCERNS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWEST SCA WIND GUSTS AND SEAS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY WITH GOOD MIXING IN THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE LATE SAT INTO SUN.
NONETHELESS...THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING/EROSION ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET.  THE CONCERN IS FOR THE EARLY MORNING HIGH
TIDE ON SUNDAY.  IF WE END UP REALIZING 20 FOOT SEAS OVER THE OPEN
OCEAN AND NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS...THERE COULD BE
SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND EROSION.  SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS
WOULD BE SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND...HULL...SCITUATE AND PERHAPS
SANDWICH HARBOR AND NANTUCKET HARBOR.  AGAIN...IT WILL DEPEND ON
EXACT WIND SPEEDS/WAVE HEIGHTS OUT OVER THE OCEAN DURING THE EARLY
MORNING SUNDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...SIPPRELL/FRANK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...FRANK




000
FXUS61 KBOX 292006
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
406 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS CONCLUDE BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
SEASONABLE AND DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS INTO THE END OF THE WEEK
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY DELIVER A GLANCING
BLOW TO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BUT THE OPPORTUNITY
FOR A HIGHER IMPACT STILL EXISTS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS WITH
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND BY NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
230 PM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND WITH SHOWERY WEATHER AND
THICKER CLOUDS IN TOW. CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO WARM BENEATH THE
THIN VEIL OF MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. SW-FLOW CONTINUES TO GUST
IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH ALONG THE S/SE SHORELINE.

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO THIS
EVENING IS THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE
THAT BEING THE STRETCHED MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. WITH CONDITIONS
WARMING ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND BENEATH A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...ECHO OVERNIGHT FORECASTERS THOUGHTS CONCERNING THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS SE NEW
ENGLAND. NOTHING SEVERE.

ASIDE...EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
TO MARCH ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING BENEATH FAVORABLE
DEEP-LAYER ASCENT. FEEL THE HIGH-RES WRF GUIDANCE AND HRRR HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE PRESENT SITUATION...ALBEIT SLIGHT DIFFERENCES.
COULD SEE THE LINE OF SHOWERS BECOME DIFFUSE WITH ITS TRACK TO THE
S AND E. SPECULATE THIS TO BE CONSEQUENTIAL OF STRETCHED MID-LEVEL
ENERGY AND PERHAPS THE COLD FRONT BECOMING TOO SEPARATED FROM ITS
PARENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH. ALSO PERHAPS AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
OFFSHORE TOWARDS A BETTER MOIST-INSTABILITY AXIS ACTIVITY ERUPTS
THAT USURPS ACTIVITY TO THE W. ALL SORTS OF FACTORS...BUT ASIDE
NOT A BIG DEAL BUT JUST A SWEEPING WET-WEATHER MAKER.

ALREADY 72-DEGREES HERE AT THE TAUNTON WFO. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE WARMING INTO THE MID-70S FOR S/SE NEW ENGLAND. A BLEND
OF THE RAP APPEARS GOOD ENOUGH WITH REGARDS TO 2M TEMPERATURES
THOUGH NOT HANDLING THE WARM-FRONT ALL THAT WELL.

TONIGHT...

MAIN TROUGH AXIS PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT
PUSHES OFFSHORE AS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS LINGER REARWARD ACROSS S- AND
E-PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

LIKELY BLANKET OF MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS AND WET WEATHER WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS MILD TOWARDS SHORES WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-40S.
ELSEWHERE...GRADUAL CLEARING EXPECTED W TO E AS W-WINDS DRIVE COOLER
AND DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION. COOLEST CONDITIONS N AND W YET
WINDS /MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER/ WILL LIKELY LIMIT
EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECTING LOWS AROUND THE UPPER-30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD E. SUBSIDENCE AND SINKING AIR IN
CONTROL OF THE REGIONS WEATHER. WITH A COOLER AIRMASS CONTINUING TO
BUILD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS /H85 JUST BELOW THE FREEZING MARK/
EXPECT A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER ALLOWING FOR DRIER AIR TO MIX-
DOWN /DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID-30S/ AND DEVELOPMENT OF A SCATTERED
CUMULUS DECK AROUND 5-6 KFT.

HIGHS AROUND THE 50S EXPECTED WHICH IS JUST ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. COLD
AIRMASS BELOW FREEZING REMAINS ALOFT. A GOOD CASE FOR EFFECTIVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING...THAT IS IF CLOUDS DO NOT BECOME AN ISSUE.

CONSIDERING DEWPOINTS AROUND THE MID-30S ON THURSDAY...IT IS
POSSIBLE LOCATIONS COULD COOL BELOW THE CROSSOVER THRESHOLD IF THE
CONDITIONS ARE RIGHT AND WE ARE ALLOWED TO RADIATE OUT EFFECTIVELY.
BUT BENEATH CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH WHICH WEAK IMPULSES WILL GLIDE...
THERE IS ALWAYS THAT POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCEMENT OF MID-LEVEL LIFT AND
CONVERGENCE YIELDING A BLANKETING CLOUD BASE.

IF CONDITIONS REMAIN CLEAR...THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO SPECULATE
THAT SHALLOW GROUND FOG WILL DEVELOP WHEREVER SOILS ARE SATURATED
/I.E. SWAMPY BOGS/. LOWS WOULD BOTTOM DOWN AROUND THE MID-30S...LOW-
30S FOR THOSE AREAS THAT RADIATE. WARMEST CONDITIONS ALONG THE
SHORES. BUT WILL GO CONSERVATIVE WITH THIS FORECAST CONSIDERING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS AND HOLD WITH LOWS AROUND THE
UPPER-30S. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FROST / FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE
NECESSARY FOR S/E COASTAL MA AND RI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* COOL ON FRIDAY
* GLANCING BLOW FAVORED SAT/EARLY SUN BUT HIGHER IMPACT POSSIBLE
* BIGGEST CONCERN IS STRONG WINDS LATE SAT/SUN ESP CAPE COD
* ACCUMULATING SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE BUT A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY
* MUCH MILDER WEATHER RETURNS BY NEXT TUE AND WED

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...

AN ENLONGATED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL RESULT
IN A RATHER CLOUDY/COOL DAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS.  A SPOT SHOWER AND
PERHAPS EVEN SOME DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY.  HIGHS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 50S ELSEWHERE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW OVER THIS TIME.  ENSEMBLE
SENSITIVITY PLOTS SHOW THE ENERGY RESPONSIBLE FOR DEVELOPING THE
EVENTUAL STORM IS STILL NEAR THE ARCTIC CIRCLE.  THIS LEAVES PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK/STRENGTH AND IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION.

WITH THAT SAID...CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A GLANCING BLOW AND
NOT A DIRECT HIT FOR OUR REGION.  THE BIGGEST CONCERN RIGHT NOW IS
FOR STRONG TO PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CAPE
AND NANTUCKET.  THERE ARE TWO MAIN SHORTWAVES INVOLVED IN STORM
FORMATION.  INITIALLY...MOST MODELS FORM AN ENLONGATED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OR EVEN TWO CENTERS BEFORE CONSOLIDATING INTO ONE STORM.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS HAPPENS TOO LATE FOR A SIGNIFICANT
RAIN/SNOW EVENT IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

A BIG CAVEAT IS THAT THIS EVENT IS CURRENTLY PROGGED BETWEEN 72 AND
96 HOUR OUT...WHICH IS QUITE A BIT OF TIME IN THE MODEL WORLD.  IF
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE IS WEAKER THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED...THE STORM
WILL INTENSIFY EARLIER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST.  WHILE THIS IS A
LOWER PROBABILITY AT THIS POINT...ITS CERTAINLY IN THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITIES.  WHAT EVER HAPPENS...WE CAN SAY THAT EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT THAN THE INTERIOR.

PTYPE AND TIMING...

A LOT OF THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR WEST THE MAIN PRECIPITATION
SHIELD REACHES.  INITIALLY...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN OR JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY.  IN FACT...MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH JUST A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS IF THE CURRENT TRACK VERIFIES. IF
THE TRACK SHIFTS WEST AND WE END UP GETTING INTO HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUN...DYNAMIC COOLING WOULD CHANGE
PTYPE TO SNOW AT LEAST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  AGAIN...BASED ON
EXPECTED TRACK ACCUMULATING SNOW IS A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY...BUT
STILL CAN/T BE RULED OUT. WHAT EVER HAPPENS...MOST PRECIPITATION
SHOULD HAVE EXITED THE REGION BY MID MORNING ON SUNDAY.

STRONG WINDS...

STRONG WINDS ARE THE ONE THING WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT WILL
DEVELOP.  EXCELLENT MIXING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM SHOULD
RESULT IN NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH DEVELOPING
LATE SAT AND ESPECIALLY SUN AS MIXING INCREASES.  ACROSS THE CAPE
AND NANTUCKET...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM MAY SEE A PERIOD
OF 50 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.  WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION AND PERHAPS HIGH WIND WATCHES/WARNINGS FOR THE CAPE
AND NANTUCKET.  GIVEN MANY TREES STILL HAVE AT LEAST SOME LEAVES ON
THEM...THE RISK FOR TREE DAMAGE AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WILL BE
ENHANCED.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

DEEP UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND WE ENTER AN AREA
OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.  A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED WITH
SOME OF THE COASTAL PLAIN POSSIBLY SEEING HIGHS BREAK 60 BY TUE OR
WED. MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVER THIS TIME...BUT A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR. LOW-END VFR/MVFR WITH LINE OF -RA EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THE TERMINALS INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF WHICH SW-WINDS PREVAIL
GUSTING AROUND 20-25 KTS ALONG THE S/SE SHORELINE. AN ISOLATED
TSRA IS POSSIBLE OVER SE-TERMINALS...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
PREVAIL IN TAF.

TONIGHT...WINDS BACK W BEHIND THE LINE...DIMINISHING. MAINLY VFR.
LOW-END VFR/MVFR CIGS WITH -RA LINGER OVER S AND E TERMINALS INTO
MIDNIGHT...IMPROVING AFTER AS ACTIVITY PUSHES OFFSHORE.

THURSDAY...VFR. LIGHT W-WINDS. SCT CIGS 4-5 KFT ACROSS INTERIOR
TERMINALS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT/VRB WINDS. SKC. SHALLOW PATCHY GROUND
FOG POSSIBLE AT PRONE TERMINALS.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR TO START BUT
ONSHORE FLOW MAY RESULT IN MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING FRI AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY FRI NIGHT.  A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON UNCERTAINTY OF
TRACK/STRENGTH AND TIMING OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO IS VFR TO BE MIXED IN AT TIMES WITH MVFR SAT INTO
SAT NIGHT. LOWER CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY AT THE COAST WITH RAIN OR
SCATTERED SHOWERS.  LOW PROBABILITY FOR A CHANGE TO SNOW AT THE END.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY SUNDAY...BUT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS EXPECTED.  STRONGEST WINDS CAPE AND
NANTUCKET WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR.


&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS STILL AN ISSUE ALONG THE S/SE COASTLINE WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
KTS AND WILL REMAIN SO AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING. WINDS BACK W AND DIMINISH ALONG
WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE
SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW SMALL-CRAFT THRESHOLDS UNDER LIGHT
W-WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY...AND ONTO THURSDAY NIGHT...
LOOKS LIKE GOOD BOATING WEATHER.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THOUGH MONDAY...

***STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS AND 20 FOOT SEAS POSSIBLE LATE SAT INTO
  SUNDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS***

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL RESULT IN
EASTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS.  GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH
THOUGH TO KEEP WINDS SPEEDS/SEAS WELL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  HIGH IMPACT MARINE EVENT
EXPECTED.  WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING
OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE...GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS ACROSS
MOST WATERS ARE PRETTY MUCH A SLAM DUNK LATE SAT INTO SUN.  IN
FACT...DECENT CHANCE IN A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS WITH 20
FOOT SEAS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS.  EXACT WIND SPEEDS AND
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL DEPEND UPON THE EXACT TRACK/INTENSITY OF COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE...BUT APPEARS THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF A HIGH IMPACT
MARINE EVENT.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  NORTHWEST SCA WIND GUSTS AND SEAS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY WITH GOOD MIXING IN THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE NOT HIGH LATE SAT INTO SUN...BUT THERE
IS EVEN A LOW PROBABILITY FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.  THE CONCERN
IS FOR THE EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE ON SUNDAY.  IF WE END UP
REALIZING 20 FOOT SEAS OVER THE OPEN OCEAN AND NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS
OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS...THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND
EROSION.  SOME OF THE HOT SPOTS WOULD BE SALISBURY AND PLUM
ISLAND...HULL...SCITUATE AND PERHAPS SANDWICH HARBOR AND NANTUCKET
HARBOR.  AGAIN...IT WILL DEPEND ON EXACT WIND SPEEDS/WAVE HEIGHTS
OUT OVER THE OCEAN DURING THE EARLY MORNING SUNDAY HIGH TIDE
CYCLE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234-250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FRANK/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...FRANK




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291842
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
242 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SHOWERS CONCLUDE BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
SEASONABLE AND DRIER WEATHER FOLLOWS INTO THE END OF THE WEEK
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM OFF THE CAROLINAS
WILL PASS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
EASTERN USA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

230 PM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND WITH SHOWERY WEATHER AND
THICKER CLOUDS IN TOW. CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO WARM BENEATH THE
THIN VEIL OF MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. SW-FLOW CONTINUES TO GUST
IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH ALONG THE S/SE SHORELINE.

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO THIS
EVENING IS THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE
THAT BEING THE STRETCHED MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. WITH CONDITIONS
WARMING ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND BENEATH A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...ECHO OVERNIGHT FORECASTERS THOUGHTS CONCERNING THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS SE NEW
ENGLAND. NOTHING SEVERE.

ASIDE...EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
TO MARCH ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING BENEATH FAVORABLE
DEEP-LAYER ASCENT. FEEL THE HIGH-RES WRF GUIDANCE AND HRRR HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE PRESENT SITUATION...ALBEIT SLIGHT DIFFERENCES.
COULD SEE THE LINE OF SHOWERS BECOME DIFFUSE WITH ITS TRACK TO THE
S AND E. SPECULATE THIS TO BE CONSEQUENTIAL OF STRETCHED MID-LEVEL
ENERGY AND PERHAPS THE COLD FRONT BECOMING TOO SEPARATED FROM ITS
PARENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH. ALSO PERHAPS AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
OFFSHORE TOWARDS A BETTER MOIST-INSTABILITY AXIS ACTIVITY ERUPTS
THAT USURPS ACTIVITY TO THE W. ALL SORTS OF FACTORS...BUT ASIDE
NOT A BIG DEAL BUT JUST A SWEEPING WET-WEATHER MAKER.

ALREADY 72-DEGREES HERE AT THE TAUNTON WFO. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE WARMING INTO THE MID-70S FOR S/SE NEW ENGLAND. A BLEND
OF THE RAP APPEARS GOOD ENOUGH WITH REGARDS TO 2M TEMPERATURES
THOUGH NOT HANDLING THE WARM-FRONT ALL THAT WELL.

TONIGHT...

MAIN TROUGH AXIS PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT
PUSHES OFFSHORE AS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS LINGER REARWARD ACROSS S- AND
E-PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

LIKELY BLANKET OF MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS AND WET WEATHER WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS MILD TOWARDS SHORES WITH LOWS AROUND THE MID-40S.
ELSEWHERE...GRADUAL CLEARING EXPECTED W TO E AS W-WINDS DRIVE COOLER
AND DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION. COOLEST CONDITIONS N AND W YET
WINDS /MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER/ WILL LIKELY LIMIT
EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECTING LOWS AROUND THE UPPER-30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD E. SUBSIDENCE AND SINKING AIR IN
CONTROL OF THE REGIONS WEATHER. WITH A COOLER AIRMASS CONTINUING TO
BUILD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS /H85 JUST BELOW THE FREEZING MARK/
EXPECT A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER ALLOWING FOR DRIER AIR TO MIX-
DOWN /DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID-30S/ AND DEVELOPMENT OF A SCATTERED
CUMULUS DECK AROUND 5-6 KFT.

HIGHS AROUND THE 50S EXPECTED WHICH IS JUST ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. COLD
AIRMASS BELOW FREEZING REMAINS ALOFT. A GOOD CASE FOR EFFECTIVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING...THAT IS IF CLOUDS DO NOT BECOME AN ISSUE.

CONSIDERING DEWPOINTS AROUND THE MID-30S ON THURSDAY...IT IS
POSSIBLE LOCATIONS COULD COOL BELOW THE CROSSOVER THRESHOLD IF THE
CONDITIONS ARE RIGHT AND WE ARE ALLOWED TO RADIATE OUT EFFECTIVELY.
BUT BENEATH CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH WHICH WEAK IMPULSES WILL GLIDE...
THERE IS ALWAYS THAT POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCEMENT OF MID-LEVEL LIFT AND
CONVERGENCE YIELDING A BLANKETING CLOUD BASE.

IF CONDITIONS REMAIN CLEAR...THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO SPECULATE
THAT SHALLOW GROUND FOG WILL DEVELOP WHEREVER SOILS ARE SATURATED
/I.E. SWAMPY BOGS/. LOWS WOULD BOTTOM DOWN AROUND THE MID-30S...LOW-
30S FOR THOSE AREAS THAT RADIATE. WARMEST CONDITIONS ALONG THE
SHORES. BUT WILL GO CONSERVATIVE WITH THIS FORECAST CONSIDERING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS AND HOLD WITH LOWS AROUND THE
UPPER-30S. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FROST / FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE
NECESSARY FOR S/E COASTAL MA AND RI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

*** LONG-TERM DISCUSSION FROM OVERNIGHT SHIFT ***
*** FORECAST DISCUSSION STILL UNDER DEVELOPMENT ***

BIG PICTURE...

29/00Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF ROOM FOR IMPROVEMENT REGARDING THE
DETAILS. THE WEATHER THIS WEEK WILL BE DRIVEN BY A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED...ANOMALOUS PATTERN. THE CORE OF AN OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE WAS ABOUT 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THE
CORE OF THE 500 MB LOW WAS NEARLY 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL.

THIS MEANS WE NEED TO KEEP THE GUIDANCE DETAILS IN PERSPECTIVE...
AS MODELS TYPICALLY DO NOT HANDLE EXTREME EVENTS PERFECTLY. IT IS
ENCOURAGING TO SEE THE GUIDANCE CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION THOUGH.
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A CONSENSUS MEAN SOLUTION TO SMOOTH OVER
SOME OF THE MINOR DIFFERENCES. WE EXPECT BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS NOW THAT THE ENERGY WHICH WILL PRODUCE THIS COASTAL
STORM WILL BE OVER LAND AND BETTER SAMPLED.

THE 29/00 ECMWF STILL REMAINS SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST AND QUICKER
WITH IT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. THAT SAID...ITS TRACK IS STILL EAST
OF 70W LONGITUDE AS IT PASSES BY OUR REGION. THIS SHOULD MEAN THE
GREATEST EFFECTS SHOULD BE FELT TOWARD THE COASTS.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...COOLING ALOFT WITH WEAK RIDGING NEAR
THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER DRY INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF FRIDAY. AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH AND TURNS THE UPPER FLOW OVER US MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.
MEANWHILE WEAK RIDGING BUILDS TO OUR NORTH AND TURNS OUR WIND
EAST OR NORTHEAST.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THIS WILL BE THE MAIN PERIOD OF RISK FOR
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. STRONG MID
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE ATLANTIC
COAST. UPPER JET FROM CENTRAL CANADA FEEDS AROUND THIS UPPER
TROUGH WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION MOVING OVER THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. THIS SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A COASTAL LOW
DEVELOPING. STILL SOME QUESTIONS WITH THE TRACK...WHICH WILL BE A
KEY INGREDIENT TO DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPE.

CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS WEEKEND...WITH
GREATEST RISK ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AND DIMINISHING POPS
FARTHER NORTHWEST. WILL REFLECT THIS WITH LIKELY POPS SOUTHEAST
GRADING TO CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
PRECIPITATION TYPE. MUCH OF THIS TIME SHOULD BE RAIN. WITH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO FALL TO FREEZING OR BELOW SATURDAY NIGHT...THE RESULT
WILL BE SOME SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
LINGERING CLOUDS BENEATH THE COLD POOL ALOFT...ESPECIALLY ON
MONDAY. OTHERWISE FAIR AND DRY WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL
BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR. LOW-END VFR/MVFR WITH LINE OF -RA EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THE TERMINALS INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF WHICH SW-WINDS PREVAIL
GUSTING AROUND 20-25 KTS ALONG THE S/SE SHORELINE. AN ISOLATED
TSRA IS POSSIBLE OVER SE-TERMINALS...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
PREVAIL IN TAF.

TONIGHT...WINDS BACK W BEHIND THE LINE...DIMINISHING. MAINLY VFR.
LOW-END VFR/MVFR CIGS WITH -RA LINGER OVER S AND E TERMINALS INTO
MIDNIGHT...IMPROVING AFTER AS ACTIVITY PUSHES OFFSHORE.

THURSDAY...VFR. LIGHT W-WINDS. SCT CIGS 4-5 KFT ACROSS INTERIOR
TERMINALS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT/VRB WINDS. SKC. SHALLOW PATCHY GROUND
FOG POSSIBLE AT PRONE TERMINALS.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
PRECIPITATION TYPE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
OCCURRENCE. CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING TO IFR COASTAL PLAIN AND MVFR
NORTHWEST. COASTAL STORM PASSES BY LATER SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ESPECIALLY KMHT-KORH-KBAF-KBDL.
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF SUNDAY. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS
ALONG THE COAST 25-35 KNOTS SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY WITH
GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS INLAND AND 30 TO 40 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS STILL AN ISSUE ALONG THE S/SE COASTLINE WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
KTS AND WILL REMAIN SO AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING. WINDS BACK W AND DIMINISH ALONG
WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE
SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW SMALL-CRAFT THRESHOLDS UNDER LIGHT
W-WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY...AND ONTO THURSDAY NIGHT...
LOOKS LIKE GOOD BOATING WEATHER.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE WATERS. NORTHWEST
WINDS THURSDAY BECOME NORTHEAST FRIDAY BUT REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS.
SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 FEET.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINAS AND MOVES UP THE COAST. MODERATE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXACT TRACK AND TIMING...WITH THE GENERAL CONSENSUS SOLUTION
STAYING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. AT LEAST
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS SATURDAY 25 TO 35 KNOTS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST 30 TO
40 KNOTS SUNDAY. A GALE WATCH/GALE WARNING MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234-250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BELK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...BELK/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291724
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
124 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THE FRONT
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH WILL BRING DRY...SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS. A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM OFF THE CAROLINAS WILL
PASS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
EASTERN USA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

130 PM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND WITH SHOWERY WEATHER AND
THICKER CLOUDS IN TOW. FOG HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED BENEATH THE THIN
VEIL OF MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS AS ITS TRANSPARENCY HAS ALLOWED
CONDITIONS TO WARM RESULTING IN THE WARM-FRONT TO PUSH N INTO NH
AND ME...AIDED BY SW-FLOW WHICH CONTINUES TO GUST IN EXCESS OF 25
MPH ALONG THE S/SE SHORELINE.

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO THIS
EVENING IS THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE
THAT BEING THE STRETCHED MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. WITH CONDITIONS
WARMING ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND BENEATH A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...ECHO THE OVERNIGHT FORECASTERS THOUGHTS CONCERNING
THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED REGION. NOTHING SEVERE.

ASIDE...EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
TO MARCH ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING BENEATH FAVORABLE
DEEP-LAYER ASCENT. FEEL THE HIGH-RES WRF GUIDANCE AND HRRR HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE PRESENT SITUATION...ALBEIT SLIGHT DIFFERENCES.
COULD SEE THE LINE OF SHOWERS BECOME DIFFUSE WITH ITS TRACK TO THE
S AND E. SPECULATE THIS TO BE CONSEQUENTIAL OF STRETCHED MID-LEVEL
ENERGY AND PERHAPS THE COLD FRONT BECOMING TOO SEPARATED FROM ITS
PARENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH. ALSO PERHAPS AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
OFFSHORE TOWARDS A BETTER MOIST-INSTABILITY AXIS ACTIVITY ERUPTS
THAT USURPS ACTIVITY TO THE W. ALL SORTS OF FACTORS...BUT ASIDE
NOT A BIG DEAL BUT JUST A SWEEPING WET-WEATHER MAKER.

ALREADY 72-DEGREES HERE AT THE TAUNTON WFO. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE WARMING INTO THE MID-70S FOR SE NEW ENGLAND. A BLEND OF
THE HRRR/RAP APPEARS SPOT-ON WITH REGARDS TO 2M TEMPERATURES
THOUGH NOT HANDLING THE WARM-FRONT ALL THAT WELL...AND HENCE THE
HEADACHES WITH THIS MORNINGS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...
THE H5 LONG WAVE TROUGH PUSHES E...AND APPROACHING WESTERN AREAS
BY EARLY THURSDAY. SCT SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO
ACROSS E MA/RI/NE CT...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER THAT. H85 TEMPS
WILL STEADILY DROP OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER. BY
SUNRISE...H85 TEMPS FALL TO -2C ACROSS WESTERN AREAS TO +2C ACROSS
THE CAPE. WHILE NW WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...EXPECT THEM TO STIR
ENOUGH NOT TOO ALLOW RADIATIONAL COOLING WHERE SKIES BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY WELL INLAND. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

THURSDAY...
SURFACE HIGH RIDGE BUILDS NE INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
DAY WHILE THE H5 TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE DURING THURSDAY. MUCH
COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES
TO SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS WILL ONLY TOP OFF IN THE
50S...CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS BUT A GOOD 15 DEGREES OR SO LOWER
THAN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

BIG PICTURE...

29/00Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF ROOM FOR IMPROVEMENT REGARDING THE
DETAILS. THE WEATHER THIS WEEK WILL BE DRIVEN BY A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED...ANOMALOUS PATTERN. THE CORE OF AN OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE WAS ABOUT 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THE
CORE OF THE 500 MB LOW WAS NEARLY 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL.

THIS MEANS WE NEED TO KEEP THE GUIDANCE DETAILS IN PERSPECTIVE...
AS MODELS TYPICALLY DO NOT HANDLE EXTREME EVENTS PERFECTLY. IT IS
ENCOURAGING TO SEE THE GUIDANCE CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION THOUGH.
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A CONSENSUS MEAN SOLUTION TO SMOOTH OVER
SOME OF THE MINOR DIFFERENCES. WE EXPECT BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS NOW THAT THE ENERGY WHICH WILL PRODUCE THIS COASTAL
STORM WILL BE OVER LAND AND BETTER SAMPLED.

THE 29/00 ECMWF STILL REMAINS SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST AND QUICKER
WITH IT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. THAT SAID...ITS TRACK IS STILL EAST
OF 70W LONGITUDE AS IT PASSES BY OUR REGION. THIS SHOULD MEAN THE
GREATEST EFFECTS SHOULD BE FELT TOWARD THE COASTS.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...COOLING ALOFT WITH WEAK RIDGING NEAR
THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER DRY INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF FRIDAY. AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH AND TURNS THE UPPER FLOW OVER US MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.
MEANWHILE WEAK RIDGING BUILDS TO OUR NORTH AND TURNS OUR WIND
EAST OR NORTHEAST.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THIS WILL BE THE MAIN PERIOD OF RISK FOR
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. STRONG MID
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE ATLANTIC
COAST. UPPER JET FROM CENTRAL CANADA FEEDS AROUND THIS UPPER
TROUGH WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION MOVING OVER THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. THIS SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A COASTAL LOW
DEVELOPING. STILL SOME QUESTIONS WITH THE TRACK...WHICH WILL BE A
KEY INGREDIENT TO DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPE.

CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS WEEKEND...WITH
GREATEST RISK ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AND DIMINISHING POPS
FARTHER NORTHWEST. WILL REFLECT THIS WITH LIKELY POPS SOUTHEAST
GRADING TO CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
PRECIPITATION TYPE. MUCH OF THIS TIME SHOULD BE RAIN. WITH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO FALL TO FREEZING OR BELOW SATURDAY NIGHT...THE RESULT
WILL BE SOME SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
LINGERING CLOUDS BENEATH THE COLD POOL ALOFT...ESPECIALLY ON
MONDAY. OTHERWISE FAIR AND DRY WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL
BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR. LOW-END VFR/MVFR WITH LINE OF -RA EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THE TERMINALS INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF WHICH SW-WINDS PREVAIL
GUSTING AROUND 20-25 KTS ALONG THE S/SE SHORELINE. AN ISOLATED
TSRA IS POSSIBLE OVER SE-TERMINALS...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
PREVAIL IN TAF.

TONIGHT...WINDS BACK W BEHIND THE LINE...DIMINISHING. MAINLY VFR.
LOW-END VFR/MVFR CIGS WITH -RA LINGER OVER S AND E TERMINALS INTO
MIDNIGHT...IMPROVING AFTER AS ACTIVITY PUSHES OFFSHORE.

THURSDAY...VFR. LIGHT W-WINDS. SCT CIGS 4-5 KFT ACROSS INTERIOR
TERMINALS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT/VRB WINDS. SKC. SHALLOW PATCHY GROUND
FOG POSSIBLE AT PRONE TERMINALS.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
PRECIPITATION TYPE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
OCCURRENCE. CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING TO IFR COASTAL PLAIN AND MVFR
NORTHWEST. COASTAL STORM PASSES BY LATER SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ESPECIALLY KMHT-KORH-KBAF-KBDL.
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF SUNDAY. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS
ALONG THE COAST 25-35 KNOTS SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY WITH
GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS INLAND AND 30 TO 40 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE ON THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS AS LOW
LEVEL SW JET MOVES ACROSS TODAY. EXPECT GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 6 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS THE FRONT PASSES A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WHICH MAY REDUCE VSBYS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.

WINDS SHIFT TO W AND TEND TO DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT WILL STILL
SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT EARLY ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS WILL
LINGER AOA 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS...BUT SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

THURSDAY...LIGHT NW WINDS IN PLACE. LEFTOVER 5 FT SEAS ON THE
OUTER WATERS EARLY SHOULD SUBSIDE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF
THE WATERS. NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY BECOME NORTHEAST FRIDAY BUT
REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS. SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 FEET.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINAS AND MOVES UP THE COAST. MODERATE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXACT TRACK AND TIMING...WITH THE GENERAL CONSENSUS SOLUTION
STAYING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. AT LEAST
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS SATURDAY 25 TO 35 KNOTS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST 30 TO
40 KNOTS SUNDAY. A GALE WATCH/GALE WARNING MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234-250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...BELK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291420
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1020 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THE FRONT
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH WILL BRING DRY...SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS. A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM OFF THE CAROLINAS WILL
PASS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
EASTERN USA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

COLD FRONT PRESENTLY STRETCHED ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIA.
WARM-FRONT STALLED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
TO THE N. FOG HAS SLOWLY LIFTED OVER N MA AND S NH AND EXPECT A
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...THUS HAVE DROPPED
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

OTHERWISE...SW-FLOW OF GULF-MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD ADVECTING
PWATS UP TO 1.25-INCHES. UNDERGOING AT LEAST SOME LEVEL OF DEEP-
LAYER ASCENT AND LIFT BENEATH THE RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET...
ASIDE FROM BETTER DYNAMICS WELL N...A LINE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES
ALONG AND TO THE REAR OF THE COLD FRONT WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS. FEEL THE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SE AND
OFFSHORE. THOUGH LAPSE RATES WILL BE PRETTY STEEP WHEREVER IT
WARMS ABOVE THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE /ABOVE 70-DEGREES/. THUS
WILL HOLD WITH THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SE MA AND RI...
ALBEIT BRIEF AS THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WITH STEEP ENVIRONMENTAL
PROFILE PUSHES NE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.

EXPECT THAT AS THIS LINE PUSHES S AND E...SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE DIFFUSE AS A RESULT OF STRETCHED MID-LEVEL
ENERGY AND LESSENING INSTABILITY.

MILD THIS MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SOME CLOUD BREAKS. MAIN
FOCUS OF WARMER CONDITIONS IS ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND WHERE HIGHS INTO
THE LOW-70S ARE POSSIBLE. COULD GET WARMER. NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITIES. BLUSTERY SW-FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY OVER
S/SE-COASTAL NEW ENGLAND WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...
THE H5 LONG WAVE TROUGH PUSHES E...AND APPROACHING WESTERN AREAS
BY EARLY THURSDAY. SCT SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO
ACROSS E MA/RI/NE CT...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER THAT. H85 TEMPS
WILL STEADILY DROP OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER. BY
SUNRISE...H85 TEMPS FALL TO -2C ACROSS WESTERN AREAS TO +2C ACROSS
THE CAPE. WHILE NW WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...EXPECT THEM TO STIR
ENOUGH NOT TOO ALLOW RADIATIONAL COOLING WHERE SKIES BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY WELL INLAND. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

THURSDAY...
SURFACE HIGH RIDGE BUILDS NE INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
DAY WHILE THE H5 TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE DURING THURSDAY. MUCH
COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES
TO SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS WILL ONLY TOP OFF IN THE
50S...CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS BUT A GOOD 15 DEGREES OR SO LOWER
THAN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

BIG PICTURE...

29/00Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF ROOM FOR IMPROVEMENT REGARDING THE
DETAILS. THE WEATHER THIS WEEK WILL BE DRIVEN BY A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED...ANOMALOUS PATTERN. THE CORE OF AN OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE WAS ABOUT 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THE
CORE OF THE 500 MB LOW WAS NEARLY 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL.

THIS MEANS WE NEED TO KEEP THE GUIDANCE DETAILS IN PERSPECTIVE...
AS MODELS TYPICALLY DO NOT HANDLE EXTREME EVENTS PERFECTLY. IT IS
ENCOURAGING TO SEE THE GUIDANCE CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION THOUGH.
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A CONSENSUS MEAN SOLUTION TO SMOOTH OVER
SOME OF THE MINOR DIFFERENCES. WE EXPECT BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS NOW THAT THE ENERGY WHICH WILL PRODUCE THIS COASTAL
STORM WILL BE OVER LAND AND BETTER SAMPLED.

THE 29/00 ECMWF STILL REMAINS SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST AND QUICKER
WITH IT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. THAT SAID...ITS TRACK IS STILL EAST
OF 70W LONGITUDE AS IT PASSES BY OUR REGION. THIS SHOULD MEAN THE
GREATEST EFFECTS SHOULD BE FELT TOWARD THE COASTS.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...COOLING ALOFT WITH WEAK RIDGING NEAR
THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER DRY INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF FRIDAY. AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH AND TURNS THE UPPER FLOW OVER US MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.
MEANWHILE WEAK RIDGING BUILDS TO OUR NORTH AND TURNS OUR WIND
EAST OR NORTHEAST.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THIS WILL BE THE MAIN PERIOD OF RISK FOR
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. STRONG MID
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE ATLANTIC
COAST. UPPER JET FROM CENTRAL CANADA FEEDS AROUND THIS UPPER
TROUGH WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION MOVING OVER THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. THIS SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A COASTAL LOW
DEVELOPING. STILL SOME QUESTIONS WITH THE TRACK...WHICH WILL BE A
KEY INGREDIENT TO DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPE.

CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS WEEKEND...WITH
GREATEST RISK ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AND DIMINISHING POPS
FARTHER NORTHWEST. WILL REFLECT THIS WITH LIKELY POPS SOUTHEAST
GRADING TO CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
PRECIPITATION TYPE. MUCH OF THIS TIME SHOULD BE RAIN. WITH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO FALL TO FREEZING OR BELOW SATURDAY NIGHT...THE RESULT
WILL BE SOME SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
LINGERING CLOUDS BENEATH THE COLD POOL ALOFT...ESPECIALLY ON
MONDAY. OTHERWISE FAIR AND DRY WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL
BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH LOCAL
PERIODS OF LIFR IN DENSE FOG...GENERALLY ACROSS NE MA/S CENTRAL
NH. S-SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT ALONG S COAST...CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS. MAY SEE SCT SHOWERS APPROACH SW NH/NW MA AFTER
09Z.

TODAY...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS. LOW PROB
FOR ISOLD TSTM OR TWO FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE DAY NEAR OR
AHEAD OF FRONT. S-SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY ALONG S
COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE ACROSS SW
NH/W MA AFTER 18Z AS COLD FRONT SHIFTS E.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AREAS THROUGH 03Z-05Z...THEN IMPROVING AS COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF
COAST. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS...THEN SHIFT TO W AND DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LEFTOVER SCT SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS CAPE AND ISLANDS THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

THURSDAY...VFR. PATCHY DIURNAL CLOUDS AT 4-5KFT ACROSS INTERIOR
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE ON MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
PRECIPITATION TYPE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
OCCURRENCE. CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING TO IFR COASTAL PLAIN AND MVFR
NORTHWEST. COASTAL STORM PASSES BY LATER SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ESPECIALLY KMHT-KORH-KBAF-KBDL.
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF SUNDAY. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS
ALONG THE COAST 25-35 KNOTS SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY WITH
GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS INLAND AND 30 TO 40 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE ON THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS AS LOW
LEVEL SW JET MOVES ACROSS TODAY. EXPECT GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 6 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS THE FRONT PASSES A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WHICH MAY REDUCE VSBYS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.

WINDS SHIFT TO W AND TEND TO DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT WILL STILL
SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT EARLY ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS WILL
LINGER AOA 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS...BUT SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

THURSDAY...LIGHT NW WINDS IN PLACE. LEFTOVER 5 FT SEAS ON THE
OUTER WATERS EARLY SHOULD SUBSIDE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF
THE WATERS. NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY BECOME NORTHEAST FRIDAY BUT
REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS. SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 FEET.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINAS AND MOVES UP THE COAST. MODERATE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXACT TRACK AND TIMING...WITH THE GENERAL CONSENSUS SOLUTION
STAYING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. AT LEAST
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS SATURDAY 25 TO 35 KNOTS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST 30 TO
40 KNOTS SUNDAY. A GALE WATCH/GALE WARNING MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234-250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...BELK/SIPPRELL/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291033
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
633 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THE FRONT
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH WILL BRING DRY...SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS. A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM OFF THE CAROLINAS WILL
PASS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
EASTERN USA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM UPDATE...

LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG CONTINUES ACROSS SECTIONS OF INTERIOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO S CENTRAL NH...WITH SOME LOCALIZED VSBYS
AS LOW AS 1/4 MILE OR LESS. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO
COVER THIS ASPECT OF THE MORNING COMMUTE.

OTHERWISE...ADJUSTED FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO REFLECT
THE LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS. THESE WERE MAINLY TWEAKS TO TIMING OF
SHOWERS...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TEMPS AT 08Z REMAINING IN THE LOWER-MID 40S ACROSS INTO N CENTRAL
MA...RANGING TO THE LOWER-MID 60S ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND
THE ISLANDS. APPEARS THAT THE WARM FRONT HAS STALLED NEAR WHERE
THE FOG HAS FORMED WITH CALM WINDS. PRECIP WILL REMAIN W OF THE
REGION THROUGH SUNRISE...THOUGH A FEW SPRINKLES MIGHT WORK INTO SW
NH/W MA.

COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY PUSH E...CROSSING THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. EXPECT BAND OF SCT SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS.
QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER ANY CONVECTION WILL GET GOING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY BUT WITH RATHER MILD TEMPS AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT ALONG WITH GOOD AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PRETTY GOOD
0-6KM SHEAR /SW AT 40-50 KT WITH LOW LEVEL JET/...BUT REMAINING
PARAMETERS NOT FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION AS BETTER INSTABILITY
LIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...CAN NOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AS FRONT PASSES SO
KEPT MENTION IN ESPECIALLY ACROSS E MA INTO RI WHERE RELATIVELY
BETTER INSTABILITY EXISTS.

EXPECT COLD FRONT TO APPROACH E COAST BY EVENING...PUSHING
OFFSHORE BY 00Z THU...SO SHOULD START TO SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS BY LATE IN THE DAY. COULD SEE SCT SHOWERS
CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE E AS THE FRONT CROSSES.

ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE 60S AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THERE BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH COOLER AIR WORKING IN.
WITH THE LONGER SW WINDS BRINGING THE MILDER AIR ACROSS E MA/RI...
TEMPS MAY REACH CLOSE TO OR ECLIPSE 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...
THE H5 LONG WAVE TROUGH PUSHES E...AND APPROACHING WESTERN AREAS
BY EARLY THURSDAY. SCT SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO
ACROSS E MA/RI/NE CT...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER THAT. H85 TEMPS
WILL STEADILY DROP OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER. BY
SUNRISE...H85 TEMPS FALL TO -2C ACROSS WESTERN AREAS TO +2C ACROSS
THE CAPE. WHILE NW WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...EXPECT THEM TO STIR
ENOUGH NOT TOO ALLOW RADIATIONAL COOLING WHERE SKIES BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY WELL INLAND. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

THURSDAY...
SURFACE HIGH RIDGE BUILDS NE INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
DAY WHILE THE H5 TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE DURING THURSDAY. MUCH
COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES
TO SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS WILL ONLY TOP OFF IN THE
50S...CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS BUT A GOOD 15 DEGREES OR SO LOWER
THAN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

29/00Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF ROOM FOR IMPROVEMENT REGARDING THE
DETAILS. THE WEATHER THIS WEEK WILL BE DRIVEN BY A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED...ANOMALOUS PATTERN. THE CORE OF AN OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE WAS ABOUT 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THE
CORE OF THE 500 MB LOW WAS NEARLY 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL.

THIS MEANS WE NEED TO KEEP THE GUIDANCE DETAILS IN PERSPECTIVE...
AS MODELS TYPICALLY DO NOT HANDLE EXTREME EVENTS PERFECTLY. IT IS
ENCOURAGING TO SEE THE GUIDANCE CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION THOUGH.
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A CONSENSUS MEAN SOLUTION TO SMOOTH OVER
SOME OF THE MINOR DIFFERENCES. WE EXPECT BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS NOW THAT THE ENERGY WHICH WILL PRODUCE THIS COASTAL
STORM WILL BE OVER LAND AND BETTER SAMPLED.

THE 29/00 ECMWF STILL REMAINS SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST AND QUICKER
WITH IT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. THAT SAID...ITS TRACK IS STILL EAST
OF 70W LONGITUDE AS IT PASSES BY OUR REGION. THIS SHOULD MEAN THE
GREATEST EFFECTS SHOULD BE FELT TOWARD THE COASTS.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...COOLING ALOFT WITH WEAK RIDGING NEAR
THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER DRY INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF FRIDAY. AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH AND TURNS THE UPPER FLOW OVER US MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.
MEANWHILE WEAK RIDGING BUILDS TO OUR NORTH AND TURNS OUR WIND
EAST OR NORTHEAST.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THIS WILL BE THE MAIN PERIOD OF RISK FOR
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. STRONG MID
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE ATLANTIC
COAST. UPPER JET FROM CENTRAL CANADA FEEDS AROUND THIS UPPER
TROUGH WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION MOVING OVER THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. THIS SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A COASTAL LOW
DEVELOPING. STILL SOME QUESTIONS WITH THE TRACK...WHICH WILL BE A
KEY INGREDIENT TO DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPE.

CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS WEEKEND...WITH
GREATEST RISK ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AND DIMINISHING POPS
FARTHER NORTHWEST. WILL REFLECT THIS WITH LIKELY POPS SOUTHEAST
GRADING TO CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
PRECIPITATION TYPE. MUCH OF THIS TIME SHOULD BE RAIN. WITH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO FALL TO FREEZING OR BELOW SATURDAY NIGHT...THE RESULT
WILL BE SOME SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
LINGERING CLOUDS BENEATH THE COLD POOL ALOFT...ESPECIALLY ON
MONDAY. OTHERWISE FAIR AND DRY WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL
BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH LOCAL
PERIODS OF LIFR IN DENSE FOG...GENERALLY ACROSS NE MA/S CENTRAL
NH. S-SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT ALONG S COAST...CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS. MAY SEE SCT SHOWERS APPROACH SW NH/NW MA AFTER
09Z.

TODAY...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS. LOW PROB
FOR ISOLD TSTM OR TWO FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE DAY NEAR OR
AHEAD OF FRONT. S-SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY ALONG S
COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE ACROSS SW
NH/W MA AFTER 18Z AS COLD FRONT SHIFTS E.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AREAS THROUGH 03Z-05Z...THEN IMPROVING AS COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF
COAST. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS...THEN SHIFT TO W AND DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LEFTOVER SCT SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS CAPE AND ISLANDS THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

THURSDAY...VFR. PATCHY DIURNAL CLOUDS AT 4-5KFT ACROSS INTERIOR
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE ON MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
PRECIPITATION TYPE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
OCCURRENCE. CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING TO IFR COASTAL PLAIN AND MVFR
NORTHWEST. COASTAL STORM PASSES BY LATER SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ESPECIALLY KMHT-KORH-KBAF-KBDL.
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF SUNDAY. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS
ALONG THE COAST 25-35 KNOTS SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY WITH
GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS INLAND AND 30 TO 40 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE ON THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS AS LOW
LEVEL SW JET MOVES ACROSS TODAY. EXPECT GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 6 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS THE FRONT PASSES A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WHICH MAY REDUCE VSBYS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.

WINDS SHIFT TO W AND TEND TO DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT WILL STILL
SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT EARLY ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS WILL
LINGER AOA 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS...BUT SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

THURSDAY...LIGHT NW WINDS IN PLACE. LEFTOVER 5 FT SEAS ON THE
OUTER WATERS EARLY SHOULD SUBSIDE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF
THE WATERS. NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY BECOME NORTHEAST FRIDAY BUT
REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS. SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 FEET.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINAS AND MOVES UP THE COAST. MODERATE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXACT TRACK AND TIMING...WITH THE GENERAL CONSENSUS SOLUTION
STAYING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. AT LEAST
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS SATURDAY 25 TO 35 KNOTS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST 30 TO
40 KNOTS SUNDAY. A GALE WATCH/GALE WARNING MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-
     026.
NH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ012-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...BELK/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291033
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
633 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THE FRONT
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH WILL BRING DRY...SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS. A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM OFF THE CAROLINAS WILL
PASS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
EASTERN USA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM UPDATE...

LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG CONTINUES ACROSS SECTIONS OF INTERIOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO S CENTRAL NH...WITH SOME LOCALIZED VSBYS
AS LOW AS 1/4 MILE OR LESS. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO
COVER THIS ASPECT OF THE MORNING COMMUTE.

OTHERWISE...ADJUSTED FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO REFLECT
THE LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS. THESE WERE MAINLY TWEAKS TO TIMING OF
SHOWERS...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TEMPS AT 08Z REMAINING IN THE LOWER-MID 40S ACROSS INTO N CENTRAL
MA...RANGING TO THE LOWER-MID 60S ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND
THE ISLANDS. APPEARS THAT THE WARM FRONT HAS STALLED NEAR WHERE
THE FOG HAS FORMED WITH CALM WINDS. PRECIP WILL REMAIN W OF THE
REGION THROUGH SUNRISE...THOUGH A FEW SPRINKLES MIGHT WORK INTO SW
NH/W MA.

COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY PUSH E...CROSSING THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. EXPECT BAND OF SCT SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS.
QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER ANY CONVECTION WILL GET GOING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY BUT WITH RATHER MILD TEMPS AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT ALONG WITH GOOD AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PRETTY GOOD
0-6KM SHEAR /SW AT 40-50 KT WITH LOW LEVEL JET/...BUT REMAINING
PARAMETERS NOT FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION AS BETTER INSTABILITY
LIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...CAN NOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AS FRONT PASSES SO
KEPT MENTION IN ESPECIALLY ACROSS E MA INTO RI WHERE RELATIVELY
BETTER INSTABILITY EXISTS.

EXPECT COLD FRONT TO APPROACH E COAST BY EVENING...PUSHING
OFFSHORE BY 00Z THU...SO SHOULD START TO SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS BY LATE IN THE DAY. COULD SEE SCT SHOWERS
CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE E AS THE FRONT CROSSES.

ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE 60S AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THERE BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH COOLER AIR WORKING IN.
WITH THE LONGER SW WINDS BRINGING THE MILDER AIR ACROSS E MA/RI...
TEMPS MAY REACH CLOSE TO OR ECLIPSE 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...
THE H5 LONG WAVE TROUGH PUSHES E...AND APPROACHING WESTERN AREAS
BY EARLY THURSDAY. SCT SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO
ACROSS E MA/RI/NE CT...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER THAT. H85 TEMPS
WILL STEADILY DROP OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER. BY
SUNRISE...H85 TEMPS FALL TO -2C ACROSS WESTERN AREAS TO +2C ACROSS
THE CAPE. WHILE NW WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...EXPECT THEM TO STIR
ENOUGH NOT TOO ALLOW RADIATIONAL COOLING WHERE SKIES BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY WELL INLAND. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

THURSDAY...
SURFACE HIGH RIDGE BUILDS NE INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
DAY WHILE THE H5 TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE DURING THURSDAY. MUCH
COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES
TO SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS WILL ONLY TOP OFF IN THE
50S...CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS BUT A GOOD 15 DEGREES OR SO LOWER
THAN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

29/00Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF ROOM FOR IMPROVEMENT REGARDING THE
DETAILS. THE WEATHER THIS WEEK WILL BE DRIVEN BY A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED...ANOMALOUS PATTERN. THE CORE OF AN OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE WAS ABOUT 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THE
CORE OF THE 500 MB LOW WAS NEARLY 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL.

THIS MEANS WE NEED TO KEEP THE GUIDANCE DETAILS IN PERSPECTIVE...
AS MODELS TYPICALLY DO NOT HANDLE EXTREME EVENTS PERFECTLY. IT IS
ENCOURAGING TO SEE THE GUIDANCE CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION THOUGH.
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A CONSENSUS MEAN SOLUTION TO SMOOTH OVER
SOME OF THE MINOR DIFFERENCES. WE EXPECT BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS NOW THAT THE ENERGY WHICH WILL PRODUCE THIS COASTAL
STORM WILL BE OVER LAND AND BETTER SAMPLED.

THE 29/00 ECMWF STILL REMAINS SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST AND QUICKER
WITH IT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. THAT SAID...ITS TRACK IS STILL EAST
OF 70W LONGITUDE AS IT PASSES BY OUR REGION. THIS SHOULD MEAN THE
GREATEST EFFECTS SHOULD BE FELT TOWARD THE COASTS.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...COOLING ALOFT WITH WEAK RIDGING NEAR
THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER DRY INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF FRIDAY. AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH AND TURNS THE UPPER FLOW OVER US MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.
MEANWHILE WEAK RIDGING BUILDS TO OUR NORTH AND TURNS OUR WIND
EAST OR NORTHEAST.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THIS WILL BE THE MAIN PERIOD OF RISK FOR
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. STRONG MID
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE ATLANTIC
COAST. UPPER JET FROM CENTRAL CANADA FEEDS AROUND THIS UPPER
TROUGH WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION MOVING OVER THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. THIS SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A COASTAL LOW
DEVELOPING. STILL SOME QUESTIONS WITH THE TRACK...WHICH WILL BE A
KEY INGREDIENT TO DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPE.

CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS WEEKEND...WITH
GREATEST RISK ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AND DIMINISHING POPS
FARTHER NORTHWEST. WILL REFLECT THIS WITH LIKELY POPS SOUTHEAST
GRADING TO CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
PRECIPITATION TYPE. MUCH OF THIS TIME SHOULD BE RAIN. WITH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO FALL TO FREEZING OR BELOW SATURDAY NIGHT...THE RESULT
WILL BE SOME SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
LINGERING CLOUDS BENEATH THE COLD POOL ALOFT...ESPECIALLY ON
MONDAY. OTHERWISE FAIR AND DRY WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL
BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH LOCAL
PERIODS OF LIFR IN DENSE FOG...GENERALLY ACROSS NE MA/S CENTRAL
NH. S-SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT ALONG S COAST...CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS. MAY SEE SCT SHOWERS APPROACH SW NH/NW MA AFTER
09Z.

TODAY...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS. LOW PROB
FOR ISOLD TSTM OR TWO FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE DAY NEAR OR
AHEAD OF FRONT. S-SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY ALONG S
COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE ACROSS SW
NH/W MA AFTER 18Z AS COLD FRONT SHIFTS E.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AREAS THROUGH 03Z-05Z...THEN IMPROVING AS COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF
COAST. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS...THEN SHIFT TO W AND DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LEFTOVER SCT SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS CAPE AND ISLANDS THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

THURSDAY...VFR. PATCHY DIURNAL CLOUDS AT 4-5KFT ACROSS INTERIOR
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE ON MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
PRECIPITATION TYPE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
OCCURRENCE. CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING TO IFR COASTAL PLAIN AND MVFR
NORTHWEST. COASTAL STORM PASSES BY LATER SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ESPECIALLY KMHT-KORH-KBAF-KBDL.
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF SUNDAY. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS
ALONG THE COAST 25-35 KNOTS SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY WITH
GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS INLAND AND 30 TO 40 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE ON THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS AS LOW
LEVEL SW JET MOVES ACROSS TODAY. EXPECT GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 6 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS THE FRONT PASSES A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WHICH MAY REDUCE VSBYS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.

WINDS SHIFT TO W AND TEND TO DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT WILL STILL
SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT EARLY ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS WILL
LINGER AOA 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS...BUT SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

THURSDAY...LIGHT NW WINDS IN PLACE. LEFTOVER 5 FT SEAS ON THE
OUTER WATERS EARLY SHOULD SUBSIDE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF
THE WATERS. NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY BECOME NORTHEAST FRIDAY BUT
REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS. SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 FEET.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINAS AND MOVES UP THE COAST. MODERATE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXACT TRACK AND TIMING...WITH THE GENERAL CONSENSUS SOLUTION
STAYING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. AT LEAST
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS SATURDAY 25 TO 35 KNOTS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST 30 TO
40 KNOTS SUNDAY. A GALE WATCH/GALE WARNING MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-
     026.
NH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ012-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...BELK/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290915
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
515 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THE FRONT
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH WILL BRING DRY...SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS. A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM OFF THE CAROLINAS WILL
PASS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
EASTERN USA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG CONTINUES ACROSS SECTIONS OF INTERIOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO S CENTRAL NH...WITH SOME LOCALIZED VSBYS
AS LOW AS 1/4 MILE. HAVE ISSUED SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO COVER
THIS ASPECT OF THE MORNING COMMUTE.

TEMPS AT 08Z REMAINING IN THE LOWER-MID 40S ACROSS INTO N CENTRAL
MA...RANGING TO THE LOWER-MID 60S ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND
THE ISLANDS. APPEARS THAT THE WARM FRONT HAS STALLED NEAR WHERE
THE FOG HAS FORMED WITH CALM WINDS. PRECIP WILL REMAIN W OF THE
REGION THROUGH SUNRISE...THOUGH A FEW SPRINKLES MIGHT WORK INTO SW
NH/W MA.

COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY PUSH E...CROSSING THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. EXPECT BAND OF SCT SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS.
QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER ANY CONVECTION WILL GET GOING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY BUT WITH RATHER MILD TEMPS AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT ALONG WITH GOOD AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PRETTY GOOD
0-6KM SHEAR /SW AT 40-50 KT WITH LOW LEVEL JET/...BUT REMAINING
PARAMETERS NOT FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION AS BETTER INSTABILITY
LIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...CAN NOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AS FRONT PASSES SO
KEPT MENTION IN ESPECIALLY ACROSS E MA INTO RI WHERE RELATIVELY
BETTER INSTABILITY EXISTS.

EXPECT COLD FRONT TO APPROACH E COAST BY EVENING...PUSHING
OFFSHORE BY 00Z THU...SO SHOULD START TO SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS BY LATE IN THE DAY. COULD SEE SCT SHOWERS
CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE E AS THE FRONT CROSSES.

ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE 60S AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THERE BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH COOLER AIR WORKING IN.
WITH THE LONGER SW WINDS BRINGING THE MILDER AIR ACROSS E MA/RI...
TEMPS MAY REACH CLOSE TO OR ECLIPSE 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...
THE H5 LONG WAVE TROUGH PUSHES E...AND APPROACHING WESTERN AREAS
BY EARLY THURSDAY. SCT SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO
ACROSS E MA/RI/NE CT...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER THAT. H85 TEMPS
WILL STEADILY DROP OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER. BY
SUNRISE...H85 TEMPS FALL TO -2C ACROSS WESTERN AREAS TO +2C ACROSS
THE CAPE. WHILE NW WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...EXPECT THEM TO STIR
ENOUGH NOT TOO ALLOW RADIATIONAL COOLING WHERE SKIES BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY WELL INLAND. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

THURSDAY...
SURFACE HIGH RIDGE BUILDS NE INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
DAY WHILE THE H5 TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE DURING THURSDAY. MUCH
COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES
TO SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS WILL ONLY TOP OFF IN THE
50S...CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS BUT A GOOD 15 DEGREES OR SO LOWER
THAN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

29/00Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF ROOM FOR IMPROVEMENT REGARDING THE
DETAILS. THE WEATHER THIS WEEK WILL BE DRIVEN BY A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED...ANOMALOUS PATTERN. THE CORE OF AN OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE WAS ABOUT 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THE
CORE OF THE 500 MB LOW WAS NEARLY 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL.

THIS MEANS WE NEED TO KEEP THE GUIDANCE DETAILS IN PERSPECTIVE...
AS MODELS TYPICALLY DO NOT HANDLE EXTREME EVENTS PERFECTLY. IT IS
ENCOURAGING TO SEE THE GUIDANCE CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION THOUGH.
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A CONSENSUS MEAN SOLUTION TO SMOOTH OVER
SOME OF THE MINOR DIFFERENCES. WE EXPECT BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS NOW THAT THE ENERGY WHICH WILL PRODUCE THIS COASTAL
STORM WILL BE OVER LAND AND BETTER SAMPLED.

THE 29/00 ECMWF STILL REMAINS SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST AND QUICKER
WITH IT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. THAT SAID...ITS TRACK IS STILL EAST
OF 70W LONGITUDE AS IT PASSES BY OUR REGION. THIS SHOULD MEAN THE
GREATEST EFFECTS SHOULD BE FELT TOWARD THE COASTS.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...COOLING ALOFT WITH WEAK RIDGING NEAR
THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER DRY INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF FRIDAY. AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH AND TURNS THE UPPER FLOW OVER US MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.
MEANWHILE WEAK RIDGING BUILDS TO OUR NORTH AND TURNS OUR WIND
EAST OR NORTHEAST.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THIS WILL BE THE MAIN PERIOD OF RISK FOR
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. STRONG MID
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE ATLANTIC
COAST. UPPER JET FROM CENTRAL CANADA FEEDS AROUND THIS UPPER
TROUGH WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION MOVING OVER THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. THIS SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A COASTAL LOW
DEVELOPING. STILL SOME QUESTIONS WITH THE TRACK...WHICH WILL BE A
KEY INGREDIENT TO DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPE.

CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS WEEKEND...WITH
GREATEST RISK ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AND DIMINISHING POPS
FARTHER NORTHWEST. WILL REFLECT THIS WITH LIKELY POPS SOUTHEAST
GRADING TO CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
PRECIPITATION TYPE. MUCH OF THIS TIME SHOULD BE RAIN. WITH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO FALL TO FREEZING OR BELOW SATURDAY NIGHT...THE RESULT
WILL BE SOME SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
LINGERING CLOUDS BENEATH THE COLD POOL ALOFT...ESPECIALLY ON
MONDAY. OTHERWISE FAIR AND DRY WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL
BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH LOCAL
PERIODS OF LIFR IN DENSE FOG...GENERALLY ACROSS NE MA/S CENTRAL
NH. S-SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT ALONG S COAST...CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS. MAY SEE SCT SHOWERS APPROACH SW NH/NW MA AFTER
09Z.

TODAY...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS. LOW PROB
FOR ISOLD TSTM OR TWO FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE DAY NEAR OR
AHEAD OF FRONT. S-SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY ALONG S
COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE ACROSS SW
NH/W MA AFTER 18Z AS COLD FRONT SHIFTS E.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AREAS THROUGH 03Z-05Z...THEN IMPROVING AS COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF
COAST. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS...THEN SHIFT TO W AND DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LEFTOVER SCT SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS CAPE AND ISLANDS THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

THURSDAY...VFR. PATCHY DIURNAL CLOUDS AT 4-5KFT ACROSS INTERIOR
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE ON MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
PRECIPITATION TYPE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
OCCURRENCE. CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING TO IFR COASTAL PLAIN AND MVFR
NORTHWEST. COASTAL STORM PASSES BY LATER SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ESPECIALLY KMHT-KORH-KBAF-KBDL.
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF SUNDAY. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS
ALONG THE COAST 25-35 KNOTS SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY WITH
GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS INLAND AND 30 TO 40 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE ON THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS AS LOW
LEVEL SW JET MOVES ACROSS TODAY. EXPECT GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 6 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS THE FRONT PASSES A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WHICH MAY REDUCE VSBYS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.

WINDS SHIFT TO W AND TEND TO DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT WILL STILL
SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT EARLY ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS WILL
LINGER AOA 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS...BUT SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

THURSDAY...LIGHT NW WINDS IN PLACE. LEFTOVER 5 FT SEAS ON THE
OUTER WATERS EARLY SHOULD SUBSIDE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF
THE WATERS. NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY BECOME NORTHEAST FRIDAY BUT
REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS. SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 FEET.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINAS AND MOVES UP THE COAST. MODERATE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXACT TRACK AND TIMING...WITH THE GENERAL CONSENSUS SOLUTION
STAYING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. AT LEAST
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS SATURDAY 25 TO 35 KNOTS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST 30 TO
40 KNOTS SUNDAY. A GALE WATCH/GALE WARNING MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290842
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
442 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THE FRONT
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH WILL BRING DRY...SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS. A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM OFF THE CAROLINAS WILL
PASS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
EASTERN USA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
2 AM UPDATE...WARM FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND
EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS SW NH TO
AROUND 60 ACROSS S COASTAL MA AT 05Z. NOTING TEMPS ARE SLOWLY
RISING MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...ALONG WITH
DEWPTS. LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM NEAR KMHT-KORH-KIJD S AND E
EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR SW
WINDS AROUND 10 KT ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

AT 03Z...COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE CUTTING ACROSS CENTRAL NY/PA.
LATEST NE REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWING BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE STEADIEST PRECIP SEEN
ACROSS FAR N NY INTO NW VT. ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS REPORTED IN THIS
AREA...THOUGH.

HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT...INCLUDING
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND ADJUSTED TEMPS TO NEAR TERM TRENDS.
EVEN WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...CAN
NOT RULE OUT SOME STRAY SPRINKLES WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY.

TODAY...

COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. SHOULD ENTER WESTERN
REGIONS ABOUT 12Z AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY 03-06Z. THIS IS A SLOW
MOVING SYSTEM BUT THERE IS A LACK OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SO THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IS LOW. BELIEVE THAT THE SHOWERS WILL BE
MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE AS IT PASSES THROUGH TOMORROW. HOWEVER
GUIDANCE DOES HINT AT STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LI VALUES BELOW
-2...ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN. THIS COMBINED WITH A
30-40 KT JUST OVERHEAD...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AT THIS TIME. IF A THUNDERSTORM OR STRONG
SHOWER DOES DEVELOP...THERE IS A POTENTIAL THAT IT CAN PULL DOWN
SOME OF THE STRONGER AIR ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...HOWEVER LOCATIONS
OUT WEST MAY BE COOLER AS COLD FRONT PASSES THEM. EASTERN MASS AND
RHODE ISLAND MAY SNEAK UP TO 70F BUT NOT MUCH HIGHER AS CLOUDS
DURING THE DAY WILL LIMIT DIURNAL HEATING POTENTIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD. THE COLD FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH OFFSHORE AROUND 06Z. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
THAT IT MAY LINGER A TAD LONGER SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. COLD AIR WILL BE USHERING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO CAA. SO ANTICIPATE A COOLER NIGHT WITH
LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

29/00Z GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF ROOM FOR IMPROVEMENT REGARDING THE
DETAILS. THE WEATHER THIS WEEK WILL BE DRIVEN BY A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED...ANOMALOUS PATTERN. THE CORE OF AN OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE WAS ABOUT 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THE
CORE OF THE 500 MB LOW WAS NEARLY 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL.

THIS MEANS WE NEED TO KEEP THE GUIDANCE DETAILS IN PERSPECTIVE...
AS MODELS TYPICALLY DO NOT HANDLE EXTREME EVENTS PERFECTLY. IT IS
ENCOURAGING TO SEE THE GUIDANCE CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION THOUGH.
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A CONSENSUS MEAN SOLUTION TO SMOOTH OVER
SOME OF THE MINOR DIFFERENCES. WE EXPECT BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS NOW THAT THE ENERGY WHICH WILL PRODUCE THIS COASTAL
STORM WILL BE OVER LAND AND BETTER SAMPLED.

THE 29/00 ECMWF STILL REMAINS SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST AND QUICKER
WITH IT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. THAT SAID...ITS TRACK IS STILL EAST
OF 70W LONGITUDE AS IT PASSES BY OUR REGION. THIS SHOULD MEAN THE
GREATEST EFFECTS SHOULD BE FELT TOWARD THE COASTS.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...COOLING ALOFT WITH WEAK RIDGING NEAR
THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER DRY INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF FRIDAY. AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TROUGH AND TURNS THE UPPER FLOW OVER US MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.
MEANWHILE WEAK RIDGING BUILDS TO OUR NORTH AND TURNS OUR WIND
EAST OR NORTHEAST.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THIS WILL BE THE MAIN PERIOD OF RISK FOR
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. STRONG MID
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE ATLANTIC
COAST. UPPER JET FROM CENTRAL CANADA FEEDS AROUND THIS UPPER
TROUGH WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION MOVING OVER THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. THIS SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A COASTAL LOW
DEVELOPING. STILL SOME QUESTIONS WITH THE TRACK...WHICH WILL BE A
KEY INGREDIENT TO DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPE.

CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS WEEKEND...WITH
GREATEST RISK ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AND DIMINISHING POPS
FARTHER NORTHWEST. WILL REFLECT THIS WITH LIKELY POPS SOUTHEAST
GRADING TO CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
PRECIPITATION TYPE. MUCH OF THIS TIME SHOULD BE RAIN. WITH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO FALL TO FREEZING OR BELOW SATURDAY NIGHT...THE RESULT
WILL BE SOME SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
LINGERING CLOUDS BENEATH THE COLD POOL ALOFT...ESPECIALLY ON
MONDAY. OTHERWISE FAIR AND DRY WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL
BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH BRIEF
LIFR IN LOCAL DENSE FOG...GENERALLY AWAY FROM THE S COAST FROM
ABOUT KMHT-KORH-KIJD EAST. S-SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT
ALONG S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. MAY SEE SCT SHOWERS
APPROACH SW NH/NW MA AFTER 09Z.

TODAY...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS. LOW PROB
FOR ISOLD TSTM OR TWO FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE DAY NEAR OR
AHEAD OF FRONT. S-SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY ALONG S
COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE ACROSS SW
NH/W MA AFTER 18Z AS COLD FRONT SHIFTS E.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AREAS THROUGH 03Z-05Z...THEN IMPROVING AS COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF
COAST. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS...THEN SHIFT TO W AND DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LEFTOVER SCT SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS CAPE AND ISLANDS THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

THURSDAY...VFR. PATCHY DIURNAL CLOUDS AT 4-5KFT ACROSS INTERIOR
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE ON MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
PRECIPITATION TYPE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
OCCURRENCE. CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING TO IFR COASTAL PLAIN AND MVFR
NORTHWEST. COASTAL STORM PASSES BY LATER SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ESPECIALLY KMHT-KORH-KBAF-KBDL.
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF SUNDAY. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS
ALONG THE COAST 25-35 KNOTS SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY WITH
GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS INLAND AND 30 TO 40 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OVERNIGHT...S-SW WINDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
ANTICIPATE GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND SEAS
BUILDING. SMALL CRAFTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...EXPECT SW WINDS GUSTS BETWEEN 25 TO POSSIBLE
30KTS AND BUILDING SOUTHERN SEAS TO 6FT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. BEHIND THE FRONT THE WIND WILL SWITCH TO THE WNW AND GUST
UP TO 15 KTS...ALLOWING FOR SEAS TO RELAX. AS THE FRONT PASSES A
FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WHICH MAY REDUCE VSBYS. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT...WHICH COULD BRING GUSTS UP TO
30 KTS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF
THE WATERS. NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY BECOME NORTHEAST FRIDAY BUT
REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS. SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 FEET.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINAS AND MOVES UP THE COAST. MODERATE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXACT TRACK AND TIMING...WITH THE GENERAL CONSENSUS SOLUTION
STAYING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. AT LEAST
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS SATURDAY 25 TO 35 KNOTS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST 30 TO
40 KNOTS SUNDAY. A GALE WATCH/GALE WARNING MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290636
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
236 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THE FRONT
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH WILL BRING DRY...COOL CONDITIONS.
A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM OFF THE CAROLINAS WILL PASS OFFSHORE
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
2 AM UPDATE...
WARM FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS
MORNING. TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS SW NH TO AROUND 60
ACROSS S COASTAL MA AT 05Z. NOTING TEMPS ARE SLOWLY RISING MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...ALONG WITH DEWPTS. LOW CLOUDS
HAVE DEVELOPED FROM NEAR KMHT-KORH-KIJD S AND E EXCEPT FOR THE
IMMEDIATE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM
WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR SW WINDS AROUND 10 KT
ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

AT 03Z...COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE CUTTING ACROSS CENTRAL NY/PA.
LATEST NE REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWING BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE STEADIEST PRECIP SEEN
ACROSS FAR N NY INTO NW VT. ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS REPORTED IN THIS
AREA...THOUGH.

HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT...INCLUDING
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND ADJUSTED TEMPS TO NEAR TERM TRENDS.
EVEN WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...CAN
NOT RULE OUT SOME STRAY SPRINKLES WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TODAY...

COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. SHOULD ENTER WESTERN
REGIONS ABOUT 12Z AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY 03-06Z. THIS IS A SLOW
MOVING SYSTEM BUT THERE IS A LACK OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SO THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IS LOW. BELIEVE THAT THE SHOWERS WILL BE
MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE AS IT PASSES THROUGH TOMORROW. HOWEVER
GUIDANCE DOES HINT AT STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LI VALUES BELOW
-2...ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN. THIS COMBINED WITH A
30-40 KT JUST OVERHEAD...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AT THIS TIME. IF A THUNDERSTORM OR STRONG
SHOWER DOES DEVELOP...THERE IS A POTENTIAL THAT IT CAN PULL DOWN
SOME OF THE STRONGER AIR ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...HOWEVER LOCATIONS
OUT WEST MAY BE COOLER AS COLD FRONT PASSES THEM. EASTERN MASS AND
RHODE ISLAND MAY SNEAK UP TO 70F BUT NOT MUCH HIGHER AS CLOUDS
DURING THE DAY WILL LIMIT DIURNAL HEATING POTENTIAL.

TONIGHT...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD. THE COLD FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH OFFSHORE AROUND 06Z. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
THAT IT MAY LINGER A TAD LONGER SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. COLD AIR WILL BE USHERING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO CAA. SO ANTICIPATE A COOLER NIGHT WITH
LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE EASTERN USA WHILE UPPER RIDGE MIGRATES
FROM THE PACIFIC COAST TO THE PLAINS. THE TROUGH LINGERS OVER NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS IN PLACE. THE
TROUGH THEN MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
OVERALL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

THE ECMWF SEEMS A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN LAST RUN...BUT NO
GUARANTEE THIS TREND WILL PERSIST. THE GFS AND ECMWF BRIEFLY FORM A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE MIDWEST...THEN OPEN IT ALONG THE COAST. THE
ECMWF BRINGS THE SURFACE LOW TO JUST OUTSIDE THE BENCHMARK WHILE THE
GFS HOLDS IT FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE ECMWF IS A WETTER SOLUTION...THE
GFS IS A COLDER SOLUTION. BOTH MODELS SHOW SIMILAR PROGRESS ON THE
SHORTWAVE AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE OVERALL TROUGH.

WE FAVORED AN EXPANDED BLEND OF GRID DATA...BLENDING THE 12Z ECMWF
WITH OUR MODEL BLENDED FIELDS. EXPECT COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS FOR
LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND...THEN A WARMING TREND FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY-FRIDAY... COOLING ALOFT WITH WEAK RIDGING NEAR THE SURFACE.
THIS SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER DRY THURSDAY AND AT LEAST THE FIRST
PART OF FRIDAY.  AS THE SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH
AND TURNS THE UPPER FLOW OVER US MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.  MEANWHILE
THE WEAK RIDGING BUILDS TO OUR NORTH AND TURNS OUR WIND EAST OR
NORTHEAST. THIS WOULD MEAN INCREASED SKY COVER AND POSSIBLY A FEW
SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT.  MIXING ON THURSDAY SHOULD
REACH TO AT LEAST 850 MB...WHERE TEMPS BETWEEN -1C AND +2C WOULD
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS 55 TO 65. MIN TEMPS UPSTREAM SUPPORT THURSDAY
NIGHT MIN TEMPS 35 TO 40...LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST.  CLOUDS AND A
LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW FRIDAY SHOULD KEEP TEMPS COOL...45 TO 55.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY... AS NOTED ABOVE...UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. UPPER JET FROM CENTRAL CANADA
FEEDS AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH WITH LEFT EXIT REGION MOVING OVER THE
CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. THIS SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING. THE DEEP DIGGING UPPER TROUGH AND NEAR-SOUTH
FLOW ALOFT WOULD SUGGEST A CLOSE-TO-THE-COAST TRACK A LA THE ECMWF.
BUT WITH THE ECMWF TRENDING A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN LAST
NIGHT THE TRACK FARTHER OFFSHORE IS STILL A POSSIBLE.

CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS WEEKEND...WITH
BEST CHANCE ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AND DIMINISHING POPS FARTHER
NORTHWEST. WILL REFLECT THIS WITH LIKELY POPS SOUTHEAST GRADING TO
CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST.  GFS TRACK IS FARTHER OFFSHORE AND THEREFORE
CLEARS SKIES FASTER. THE BLEND SHOULD SHOW MORE CLOUDS...AND MAY BE
A LITTLE LESS COLD THAN A PURE GFS VALUE.

LOW CONFIDENCE ON PTYPE. MUCH OF THE TIME SHOULD BE RAIN...BUT
FIGURE WITH TEMPS FORECAST FALLING TO FREEZING OR BELOW WITH COLD
AIR ALOFT THE RESULT WILL BE SOME SNOW ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST.

ONE CHANGE FROM MODEL BLENDS...WE BUMPED WINDS UP 5-10 KNOTS
REFLECTING 25 TO 35 KNOT WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE SATURDAY AND 25 TO
40 KNOTS ON SUNDAY.  HIGHEST WIND POTENTIAL WILL BE ALONG THE COAST.

MONDAY-TUESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.  LINGERING
CLOUDS/COLD POOL ALOFT FROM THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW MAY KEEP SOME
CLOUDS AROUND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.  OTHERWISE FAIR AND DRY WITH
TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH BRIEF
LIFR IN LOCAL DENSE FOG...GENERALLY AWAY FROM THE S COAST FROM
ABOUT KMHT-KORH-KIJD EAST. S-SW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT
ALONG S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. MAY SEE SCT SHOWERS
APPROACH SW NH/NW MA AFTER 09Z.

TODAY...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS. LOW PROB
FOR ISOLD TSTM OR TWO FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE DAY NEAR OR
AHEAD OF FRONT. S-SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY ALONG S
COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE ACROSS SW
NH/W MA AFTER 18Z AS COLD FRONT SHIFTS E.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AREAS THROUGH 03Z-05Z...THEN IMPROVING AS COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF
COAST. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS...THEN SHIFT TO W AND DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LEFTOVER SCT SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS CAPE AND ISLANDS THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

THURSDAY...VFR. PATCHY DIURNAL CLOUDS AT 4-5KFT ACROSS INTERIOR
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE ON MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
PRECIPITATION TYPE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
OCCURRENCE. CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING TO IFR COASTAL PLAIN AND MVFR
NORTHWEST. COASTAL STORM PASSES LATER SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ESPECIALLY MHT-ORH-BAF-BDL. PRECIPITATION
TAPERS OFF ON SUNDAY. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST 25-35 KNOTS SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY WITH GUSTS 25
TO 30 KNOTS INLAND AND 30 TO 40 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OVERNIGHT...S-SW WINDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
ANTICIPATE GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND SEAS
BUILDING. SMALL CRAFTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...EXPECT SW WINDS GUSTS BETWEEN 25 TO POSSIBLE
30KTS AND BUILDING SOUTHERN SEAS TO 6FT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. BEHIND THE FRONT THE WIND WILL SWITCH TO THE WNW AND GUST
UP TO 15 KTS...ALLOWING FOR SEAS TO RELAX. AS THE FRONT PASSES A
FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WHICH MAY REDUCE VSBYS. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT...WHICH COULD BRING GUSTS UP TO
30 KTS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE WATERS.
NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY BECOME NORTHEAST FRIDAY BUT REMAIN BELOW 20
KNOTS. SEAS LESS THAN 5 FEET.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINAS AND MOVES UP THE COAST. GREAT UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT
TRACK. THE NEAREST FORECAST TRACK PASSES JUST OUTSIDE THE
BENCHMARK...THE FARTHEST ONE PASSES PASSES ABOUT 400-500 MILES
OUTSIDE THE BENCHMARK. AT LEAST MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN STRONG NORTH
TO NORTHEAST WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS SATURDAY 25 TO 35 KNOTS
SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST 30 TO 40 KNOTS SUNDAY.  A GALE WATCH/GALE
WARNING MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 282259
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
659 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ON WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL BRING DRY COOL WEATHER THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM OFF THE CAROLINAS WILL PASS
OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

7 PM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. NUMEROUS PATCHES OF ALTOCU
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS A BACK EDGE TO THIS
PATCH OF CLOUDS...OVER SOUTHEAST NEW YORK. MORE CLOUDS IN WESTERN
NEW YORK THAT SHOULD REACH OUR AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS IN
WESTERN NEW YORK ARE MOVING NORTHEAST. MUCH OF THAT AREA OF
SHOWERS SHOULD PASS TO OUR NORTH. SHOWERS MORE DIRECTLY UPSTREAM
ARE IN SOUTHERN OHIO ENTERING SOUTHWEST PA. THESE SHOULD TAKE
UNTIL MORNING TO REACH US.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN AND ALLOW GUSTS TO STAY UP OVERNIGHT. CROSS SECTIONS
ACROSS THE REGION SHOW AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SO
BELIEVE LOW STRATUS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION...ESP SOUTH AND
EAST OF 1-95. THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP...ESP
NORTH AND EAST IN ESSEX AND SOUTHERN NH WHICH HAS REMAINED AS THE
COOL SPOT ALL DAY. THIS LOCATION MAY HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO UPPER 50S FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA. IN FACT THE FORECAST MAY BE TO OPTIMISTIC ON HOW COOL
IT MAY GET AND SOME LOCATIONS MAY STAY ABOVE 60F. THIS IS DUE IN
PART WITH WEAK WAA THAT WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AS 925 MB TEMPS STAY
AROUND +18 TO +20C.

COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. RIGHT NOW EXPECT MOST OF THE REGION TO STAY DRY UNTIL WED
MORNING...YET CANNOT RULE OUT A SPOT SHOWER OUT WEST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT NEAR DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...

COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW. SHOULD ENTER
WESTERN REGIONS ABOUT 12Z AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY 03-06Z. THIS IS A
SLOW MOVING SYSTEM BUT THERE IS A LACK OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SO THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IS LOW. BELIEVE THAT THE SHOWERS WILL BE
MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE AS IT PASSES THROUGH TOMORROW. HOWEVER
GUIDANCE DOES HINT AT STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LI VALUES BELOW
-2...ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN. THIS COMBINED WITH A
30-40 KT JUST OVERHEAD...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AT THIS TIME. IF A THUNDERSTORM OR STRONG
SHOWER DOES DEVELOP...THERE IS A POTENTIAL THAT IT CAN PULL DOWN
SOME OF THE STRONGER AIR ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...HOWEVER LOCATIONS
OUT WEST MAY BE COOLER AS COLD FRONT PASSES THEM. EASTERN MASS AND
RHODE ISLAND MAY SNEAK UP TO 70F BUT NOT MUCH HIGHER AS CLOUDS
DURING THE DAY WILL LIMIT DIURNAL HEATING POTENTIAL.

TOMORROW NIGHT...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD. THE COLD FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH OFFSHORE AROUND 06Z. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
THAT IT MAY LINGER A TAD LONGER SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. COLD AIR WILL BE USHERING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO CAA. SO ANTICIPATE A COOLER NIGHT WITH
LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE EASTERN USA WHILE UPPER RIDGE MIGRATES
FROM THE PACIFIC COAST TO THE PLAINS. THE TROUGH LINGERS OVER NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS IN PLACE. THE
TROUGH THEN MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
OVERALL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

THE ECMWF SEEMS A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN LAST RUN...BUT NO
GUARANTEE THIS TREND WILL PERSIST. THE GFS AND ECMWF BRIEFLY FORM A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE MIDWEST...THEN OPEN IT ALONG THE COAST. THE
ECMWF BRINGS THE SURFACE LOW TO JUST OUTSIDE THE BENCHMARK WHILE THE
GFS HOLDS IT FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE ECMWF IS A WETTER SOLUTION...THE
GFS IS A COLDER SOLUTION. BOTH MODELS SHOW SIMILAR PROGRESS ON THE
SHORTWAVE AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE OVERALL TROUGH.

WE FAVORED AN EXPANDED BLEND OF GRID DATA...BLENDING THE 12Z ECMWF
WITH OUR MODEL BLENDED FIELDS. EXPECT COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS FOR
LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND...THEN A WARMING TREND FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY-FRIDAY... COOLING ALOFT WITH WEAK RIDGING NEAR THE SURFACE.
THIS SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER DRY THURSDAY AND AT LEAST THE FIRST
PART OF FRIDAY.  AS THE SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH
AND TURNS THE UPPER FLOW OVER US MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.  MEANWHILE
THE WEAK RIDGING BUILDS TO OUR NORTH AND TURNS OUR WIND EAST OR
NORTHEAST. THIS WOULD MEAN INCREASED SKY COVER AND POSSIBLY A FEW
SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT.  MIXING ON THURSDAY SHOULD
REACH TO AT LEAST 850 MB...WHERE TEMPS BETWEEN -1C AND +2C WOULD
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS 55 TO 65. MIN TEMPS UPSTREAM SUPPORT THURSDAY
NIGHT MIN TEMPS 35 TO 40...LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST.  CLOUDS AND A
LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW FRIDAY SHOULD KEEP TEMPS COOL...45 TO 55.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY... AS NOTED ABOVE...UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. UPPER JET FROM CENTRAL CANADA
FEEDS AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH WITH LEFT EXIT REGION MOVING OVER THE
CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. THIS SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING. THE DEEP DIGGING UPPER TROUGH AND NEAR-SOUTH
FLOW ALOFT WOULD SUGGEST A CLOSE-TO-THE-COAST TRACK A LA THE ECMWF.
BUT WITH THE ECMWF TRENDING A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN LAST
NIGHT THE TRACK FARTHER OFFSHORE IS STILL A POSSIBLE.

CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS WEEKEND...WITH
BEST CHANCE ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AND DIMINISHING POPS FARTHER
NORTHWEST. WILL REFLECT THIS WITH LIKELY POPS SOUTHEAST GRADING TO
CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST.  GFS TRACK IS FARTHER OFFSHORE AND THEREFORE
CLEARS SKIES FASTER. THE BLEND SHOULD SHOW MORE CLOUDS...AND MAY BE
A LITTLE LESS COLD THAN A PURE GFS VALUE.

LOW CONFIDENCE ON PTYPE. MUCH OF THE TIME SHOULD BE RAIN...BUT
FIGURE WITH TEMPS FORECAST FALLING TO FREEZING OR BELOW WITH COLD
AIR ALOFT THE RESULT WILL BE SOME SNOW ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST.

ONE CHANGE FROM MODEL BLENDS...WE BUMPED WINDS UP 5-10 KNOTS
REFLECTING 25 TO 35 KNOT WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE SATURDAY AND 25 TO
40 KNOTS ON SUNDAY.  HIGHEST WIND POTENTIAL WILL BE ALONG THE COAST.

MONDAY-TUESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.  LINGERING
CLOUDS/COLD POOL ALOFT FROM THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW MAY KEEP SOME
CLOUDS AROUND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.  OTHERWISE FAIR AND DRY WITH
TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...
MAINLY VFR. CAN/T RULE OUT PATCHES OF LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT...ESP
ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MASS...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS
HAPPENING. S-SW WIND WILL INCREASE AND GUST AROUND 20 KTS ESP
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TERMINALS. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
NORTHWEST MASS/SOUTHWEST NH CLOSER TO DAYBREAK.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE IS A LOW PROB FOR THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TERMINALS IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. S-SW WIND WILL GUST UP TO 20-25
KT ESP ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. THERE IS A
LOW PROB FOR WIND GUSTS TO REACH 30 KTS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE ON MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
PRECIPITATION TYPE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
OCCURRENCE. CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING TO IFR COASTAL PLAIN AND MVFR
NORTHWEST. COASTAL STORM PASSES LATER SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ESPECIALLY MHT-ORH-BAF-BDL. PRECIPITATION
TAPERS OFF ON SUNDAY. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST 25-35 KNOTS SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY WITH GUSTS 25
TO 30 KNOTS INLAND AND 30 TO 40 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...S-SW WINDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ANTICIPATE
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND SEAS BUILDING. SMALL
CRAFTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT SW WINDS GUSTS BETWEEN 25
TO POSSIBLE 30KTS AND BUILDING SOUTHERN SEAS TO 6FT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. BEHIND THE FRONT THE WIND WILL SWITCH TO THE
WNW AND GUST UP TO 15 KTS...ALLOWING FOR SEAS TO RELAX. AS THE
FRONT PASSES A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WHICH MAY REDUCE VSBYS. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT...WHICH COULD BRING
GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE WATERS.
NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY BECOME NORTHEAST FRIDAY BUT REMAIN BELOW 20
KNOTS. SEAS LESS THAN 5 FEET.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINAS AND MOVES UP THE COAST. GREAT UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT
TRACK. THE NEAREST FORECAST TRACK PASSES JUST OUTSIDE THE
BENCHMARK...THE FARTHEST ONE PASSES PASSES ABOUT 400-500 MILES
OUTSIDE THE BENCHMARK. AT LEAST MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN STRONG NORTH
TO NORTHEAST WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS SATURDAY 25 TO 35 KNOTS
SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST 30 TO 40 KNOTS SUNDAY.  A GALE WATCH/GALE
WARNING MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 282025
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
425 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ON WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL BRING DRY COOL WEATHER THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM OFF THE CAROLINAS WILL PASS
OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

4 PM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
HAVE THICKENED...LIMITING DIURNAL HEATING FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO DROP AS DIURNAL
HEATING IS LOST. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

WARM FRONT HAS SURGED NORTHWARD AND IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS
SYRACUSE TO MANCHESTER TO NORWOOD. THE FRONT HAS NOT MOVED INTO
BOSTON YET...AS THEY STILL HAVE EASTERLY WINDS AT 60F. THIS FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH NORTHWARD BY THE EVENING PUTTING SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND INTO THE WARM SECTOR. SOUTH OF THE FRONT MANY
LOCATIONS HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH A FEW SPOTS
REACHING 70F.

HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY DUE TO
WAA AND IN CONJUCTION WITH THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK FOR TODAY.

TONIGHT...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN AND ALLOW GUSTS TO STAY UP OVERNIGHT. CROSS SECTIONS
ACROSS THE REGION SHOW AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SO
BELIEVE LOW STRATUS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION...ESP SOUTH AND
EAST OF 1-95. THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP...ESP
NORTH AND EAST IN ESSEX AND SOUTHERN NH WHICH HAS REMAINED AS THE
COOL SPOT ALL DAY. THIS LOCATION MAY HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO UPPER 50S FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA. IN FACT THE FORECAST MAY BE TO OPTIMISTIC ON HOW COOL
IT MAY GET AND SOME LOCATIONS MAY STAY ABOVE 60F. THIS IS DUE IN
PART WITH WEAK WAA THAT WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AS 925 MB TEMPS STAY
AROUND +18 TO +20C.

COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. RIGHT NOW EXPECT MOST OF THE REGION TO STAY DRY UNTIL WED
MORNING...YET CANNOT RULE OUT A SPOT SHOWER OUT WEST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT NEAR DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

TOMORROW...

COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW. SHOULD ENTER
WESTERN REGIONS ABOUT 12Z AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY 03-06Z. THIS IS A
SLOW MOVING SYSTEM BUT THERE IS A LACK OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SO THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IS LOW. BELIEVE THAT THE SHOWERS WILL BE
MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE AS IT PASSES THROUGH TOMORROW. HOWEVER
GUIDANCE DOES HINT AT STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LI VALUES BELOW
-2...ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN. THIS COMBINED WITH A
30-40 KT JUST OVERHEAD...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AT THIS TIME. IF A THUNDERSTORM OR STRONG
SHOWER DOES DEVELOP...THERE IS A POTENTIAL THAT IT CAN PULL DOWN
SOME OF THE STRONGER AIR ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...HOWEVER LOCATIONS
OUT WEST MAY BE COOLER AS COLD FRONT PASSES THEM. EASTERN MASS AND
RHODE ISLAND MAY SNEAK UP TO 70F BUT NOT MUCH HIGHER AS CLOUDS
DURING THE DAY WILL LIMIT DIURNAL HEATING POTENTIAL.

TOMORROW NIGHT...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD. THE COLD FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH OFFSHORE AROUND 06Z. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
THAT IT MAY LINGER A TAD LONGER SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. COLD AIR WILL BE USHERING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO CAA. SO ANTICIPATE A COOLER NIGHT WITH
LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

BIG PICTURE...

UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE EASTERN USA WHILE UPPER RIDGE MIGRATES
FROM THE PACIFIC COAST TO THE PLAINS. THE TROUGH LINGERS OVER NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS IN PLACE. THE
TROUGH THEN MOVES OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
OVERALL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

THE ECMWF SEEMS A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN LAST RUN...BUT NO
GUARANTEE THIS TREND WILL PERSIST. THE GFS AND ECMWF BRIEFLY FORM A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE MIDWEST...THEN OPEN IT ALONG THE COAST. THE
ECMWF BRINGS THE SURFACE LOW TO JUST OUTSIDE THE BENCHMARK WHILE THE
GFS HOLDS IT FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE ECMWF IS A WETTER SOLUTION...THE
GFS IS A COLDER SOLUTION. BOTH MODELS SHOW SIMILAR PROGRESS ON THE
SHORTWAVE AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE OVERALL TROUGH.

WE FAVORED AN EXPANDED BLEND OF GRID DATA...BLENDING THE 12Z ECMWF
WITH OUR MODEL BLENDED FIELDS. EXPECT COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS FOR
LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND...THEN A WARMING TREND FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY-FRIDAY... COOLING ALOFT WITH WEAK RIDGING NEAR THE SURFACE.
THIS SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER DRY THURSDAY AND AT LEAST THE FIRST
PART OF FRIDAY.  AS THE SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH
AND TURNS THE UPPER FLOW OVER US MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.  MEANWHILE
THE WEAK RIDGING BUILDS TO OUR NORTH AND TURNS OUR WIND EAST OR
NORTHEAST. THIS WOULD MEAN INCREASED SKY COVER AND POSSIBLY A FEW
SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT.  MIXING ON THURSDAY SHOULD
REACH TO AT LEAST 850 MB...WHERE TEMPS BETWEEN -1C AND +2C WOULD
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS 55 TO 65. MIN TEMPS UPSTREAM SUPPORT THURSDAY
NIGHT MIN TEMPS 35 TO 40...LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST.  CLOUDS AND A
LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW FRIDAY SHOULD KEEP TEMPS COOL...45 TO 55.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY... AS NOTED ABOVE...UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. UPPER JET FROM CENTRAL CANADA
FEEDS AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH WITH LEFT EXIT REGION MOVING OVER THE
CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. THIS SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING. THE DEEP DIGGING UPPER TROUGH AND NEAR-SOUTH
FLOW ALOFT WOULD SUGGEST A CLOSE-TO-THE-COAST TRACK A LA THE ECMWF.
BUT WITH THE ECMWF TRENDING A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN LAST
NIGHT THE TRACK FARTHER OFFSHORE IS STILL A POSSIBLE.

CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS WEEKEND...WITH
BEST CHANCE ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AND DIMINISHING POPS FARTHER
NORTHWEST. WILL REFLECT THIS WITH LIKELY POPS SOUTHEAST GRADING TO
CHANCE POPS NORTHWEST.  GFS TRACK IS FARTHER OFFSHORE AND THEREFORE
CLEARS SKIES FASTER. THE BLEND SHOULD SHOW MORE CLOUDS...AND MAY BE
A LITTLE LESS COLD THAN A PURE GFS VALUE.

LOW CONFIDENCE ON PTYPE. MUCH OF THE TIME SHOULD BE RAIN...BUT
FIGURE WITH TEMPS FORECAST FALLING TO FREEZING OR BELOW WITH COLD
AIR ALOFT THE RESULT WILL BE SOME SNOW ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST.

ONE CHANGE FROM MODEL BLENDS...WE BUMPED WINDS UP 5-10 KNOTS
REFLECTING 25 TO 35 KNOT WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE SATURDAY AND 25 TO
40 KNOTS ON SUNDAY.  HIGHEST WIND POTENTIAL WILL BE ALONG THE COAST.

MONDAY-TUESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.  LINGERING
CLOUDS/COLD POOL ALOFT FROM THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW MAY KEEP SOME
CLOUDS AROUND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.  OTHERWISE FAIR AND DRY WITH
TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BEFORE 00Z...VFR. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUNSET.

AFTER 00Z...MAINLY VFR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT LOW STRATUS
OVERNIGHT...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS. S-SW WIND WILL
INCREASE AND GUST AROUND 20 KTS ESP ACROSS SOUTHEAST TERMINALS.
OTHERWISE RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT NORTHWEST TERMINALS
CLOSER TO DAYBREAK TOMORROW. LOW CONFIDENCE IF FOG WILL DEVELOP.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
IN SCT SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS A
LOW PROB FOR THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TERMINALS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. S-SW WIND WILL GUST UP TO 20-25 KT
ESP ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. THERE IS A LOW
PROB FOR WIND GUSTS TO REACH 30 KTS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM WEST
TO EAST OVERNIGHT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE SHOULD
DIMINISH BY 23Z AS WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE ON MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AND FOR POTENTIAL.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
PRECIPITATION TYPE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
OCCURRENCE. CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING TO IFR COASTAL PLAIN AND MVFR
NORTHWEST. COASTAL STORM PASSES LATER SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ESPECIALLY MHT-ORH-BAF-BDL. PRECIPITATION
TAPERS OFF ON SUNDAY. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS ALONG THE
COAST 25-35 KNOTS SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY WITH GUSTS 25
TO 30 KNOTS INLAND AND 30 TO 40 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...S-SW WINDS INCREASING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ANTICIPATE
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND SEAS BUILDING. SMALL
CRAFTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...EXPECT SW WINDS GUSTS BETWEEN 25 TO
POSSIBLE 30KTS AND BUILDING SOUTHERN SEAS TO 6FT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. BEHIND THE FRONT THE WIND WILL SWITCH TO THE
WNW AND GUST UP TO 15 KTS...ALLOWING FOR SEAS TO RELAX. AS THE
FRONT PASSES A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WHICH MAY REDUCE VSBYS.
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT...WHICH COULD BRING
GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE WATERS.
NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY BECOME NORTHEAST FRIDAY BUT REMAIN BELOW 20
KNOTS. SEAS LESS THAN 5 FEET.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...COASTAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINAS AND MOVES UP THE COAST. GREAT UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT
TRACK. THE NEAREST FORECAST TRACK PASSES JUST OUTSIDE THE
BENCHMARK...THE FARTHEST ONE PASSES PASSES ABOUT 400-500 MILES
OUTSIDE THE BENCHMARK. AT LEAST MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN STRONG NORTH
TO NORTHEAST WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS SATURDAY 25 TO 35 KNOTS
SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST 30 TO 40 KNOTS SUNDAY.  A GALE WATCH/GALE
WARNING MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 281809
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
209 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM MOVING ACROSS
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SEASONABLE AND DRY FOR THURSDAY. A
SIGNIFICANT STORM IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY BEGINNING FRIDAY INTO
THIS WEEKEND. UNSEASONABLY COOLER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

200 PM UPDATE...

WARM FRONT HAS SURGED NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND IS CURRENTLY
DRAPED ACROSS SYRACUSE TO BRADLEY TO NORWOOD. THE FRONT HAS NOT
MOVED INTO BOSTON YET...AS THEY STILL HAVE EASTERLY WINDS AT 60F.
THIS FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH NORTHWARD BY THE LATE AFTERNOON
PUTTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE WARM SECTOR. SOUTH OF THE
FRONT MANY LOCATIONS HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH A
FEW SPOTS REACHING 70F ALREADY.

HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY DUE TO
WAA AND IN CONJUCTION WITH THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE. HAVE UPDATED
THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
EXPECT INCREASING WINDS ALOFT...UP TO 30-35 KT AT H925 AND UP TO
45 KT AT H85...THOUGH LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BE TOUGH TO MIX DOWN.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT. LEADING
EDGE OF SCT SHOWERS LOOKS TO PUSH INTO THE CT VALLEY DURING THE
PRE DAWN HOURS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD AS WELL...MAY DROP TO THE
50S BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE READINGS HOLDING AT AROUND
60 ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

WEDNESDAY...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION DURING WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
LINE OF SHOWERS. MARGINAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY CAUSE
A FEW ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS S CENTRAL NH AND NE MA BY AROUND
MIDDAY...THEN OVER THE REMAINDER OF E MA/E RI DURING THE
AFTERNOON. NOTING LIFTED INDICES ZERO TO -1 AND K INDICES AROUND
30 AND...WITH GOOD MIXING CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME CONVECTION. WOULD
ALSO NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH
WITH ANY BRIEF HEAVY SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE BY WED
EVENING...THOUGH SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS EASTERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
* HIGHLIGHTS...

- COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
- SEASONABLE AND DRY FOR THURSDAY
- SIGNIFICANT STORM APPEARING MORE LIKELY FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND
- APPEARING UNSEASONABLY COOLER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK

* OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN NOT SO MUCH THIS
WEEKEND. 28/00Z ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUE TO DIFFER
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE REST OF THE 28/00Z GUIDANCE SUITE. THE
MAJOR DIFFERENCE INVOLVES A LINGERING CLOSED SURFACE LOW...ALONG
WITH A STRONGER...NEGATIVELY-TILTED...MID LEVEL TROUGH. AT THIS
POINT...FAVORED A CONSENSUS SOLUTION TO MITIGATE THE TIMING AND
LOCATION ERRORS. WE THINK IT WISE TO NOT DISMISS THE ECMWF-BASED
SOLUTIONS ENTIRELY. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS ABOUT AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME RANGE. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE...UNTIL THE
TIMING ISSUES CAN BE WORKED OUT. STAY TUNED.

* DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE...TAKING ANY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT.

HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FOR THURSDAY WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER...BUT
STILL SEASONABLE...CONDITIONS.

AS TO FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...NO ONE PARTICULAR
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION IS PREFERRED. JUST ABOUT ALL GUIDANCE
SOURCES SHOWING A CLASSIC ENERGY TRANSFER FROM AN INLAND LOW
PRESSURE TO AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE. THE PROBLEM IS THE DETAILS
ARE WIDELY DIFFERENT...AND WILL BE CRUCIAL.

OVERALL AGREEMENT ON BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THIS WOULD OPEN
THE DOOR TO POTENTIAL LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS. IT IS ALSO
POSSIBLE THE OFFSHORE LOW DEVELOPMENT IS SO FAR OUT TO
SEA...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WINDS UP IN THE DRIER AIR...WITH LITTLE
TO NO PRECIPITATION.

MONDAY...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...BUT DRIER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BEFORE 00Z...VFR. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON.

AFTER 00Z...MAINLY VFR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT LOW STRATUS
OVERNIGHT...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS. S-SW WIND WILL
INCREASE AND GUST AROUND 20 KTS ESP ACROSS SOUTHEAST TERMINALS.
OTHERWISE RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT NORTHWEST TERMINALS
CLOSER TO DAYBREAK TOMORROW. LOW CONFIDENCE IF FOG WILL DEVELOP.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
IN SCT SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE ARE. THERE IS A
LOW PROB FOR THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TERMINALS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. S-SW WIND WILL GUST UP TO 20-25 KT
ESP ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. THERE IS A LOW
PROB WIND GUST TO 30 KT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE SHOULD
DIMINISH BY 20-21Z AS WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE ON MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AND FOR POTENTIAL.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH NW WINDS
DIMINISHING.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS. CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING WITH A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM IN VICINITY OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...EXPECT S-SW WINDS TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY. MAY SEE SOME
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD BUT LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW 5 FT.

TONIGHT...S-SW WINDS PICK UP...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ON THE
SOUTHERN WATERS AND SEAS BUILDING. SMALL CRAFTS WILL BE POSTED.

WEDNESDAY...EXPECT SW WINDS AND SEAS AOA SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS FROM E OF CAPE COD SOUTHWARD. COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS SHIFT TO W
ON THE WESTERN WATERS LATE IN THE DAY. VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN SCT
SHOWERS. ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE. SEAS
BUILDING AROUND 5-7 FEET...LIKELY RESULTING IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
HEADLINES. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING.

THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

RELATIVELY TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS DETERIORATING AS A STORM BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND
THE COASTAL WATERS. EXPECTING NORTHWEST WINDS TO INTENSIFY...WITH
WIND GUSTS APPROACHING GALE FORCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SEAS BUILDING
AS WELL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 281407
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1007 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM MOVING ACROSS
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SEASONABLE AND DRY FOR THURSDAY. A
SIGNIFICANT STORM IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY BEGINNING FRIDAY INTO
THIS WEEKEND. UNSEASONABLY COOLER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1000 AM UPDATE...

WARM FRONT HAS STRUGGLED TO REACH NORTH OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING. IT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS KPOU TO KWST TO KMVY. THIS
FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE GULF OF MAINE.
AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM QUICKLY WITH
A FEW SITES MAY REACH 70F LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A GENERAL W-NW WIND FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO BRING HIGH THIN
CLOUDS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS. OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS NOTED ACROSS SE NY THAT MAY BRING
A QUICK SPRINKLE TO N CT THROUGH SUNRISE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION.

WINDS WERE MAINLY CALM AT 08Z WITH PATCHY FOG ACROSS E INTERIOR
MA. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS WHICH HAVE CAPPED TEMPS.
HOWEVER...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN TO THE LOWER-MID 30S ACROSS E INTERIOR
MA WHERE SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR...AS WELL AS ACROSS N CENTRAL MA
INTO SW NH.

AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE PUSH E OF THE REGION TODAY...EXPECT
WINDS TO BACK TO S-SW DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW MILDER TEMPS
AND SUNSHINE TO RETURN AS CLOUDS PUSH NE AFTER A WARM FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. S-SW WINDS WILL PICK UP ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND
THE ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20
MPH. H925 TEMPS WILL ALSO RISE QUICKLY...UP TO +10C TO +18C THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE 60S...WITH SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE LOWER CT VALLEY INTO N RI/SE MA POSSIBLY
REACHING THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
EXPECT INCREASING WINDS ALOFT...UP TO 30-35 KT AT H925 AND UP TO
45 KT AT H85...THOUGH LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BE TOUGH TO MIX DOWN.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT. LEADING
EDGE OF SCT SHOWERS LOOKS TO PUSH INTO THE CT VALLEY DURING THE
PRE DAWN HOURS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD AS WELL...MAY DROP TO THE
50S BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE READINGS HOLDING AT AROUND
60 ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

WEDNESDAY...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION DURING WEDNESDAY...BRINGING
LINE OF SHOWERS. MARGINAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY CAUSE
A FEW ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS S CENTRAL NH AND NE MA BY AROUND
MIDDAY...THEN OVER THE REMAINDER OF E MA/E RI DURING THE
AFTERNOON. NOTING LIFTED INDICES ZERO TO -1 AND K INDICES AROUND
30 AND...WITH GOOD MIXING CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME CONVECTION. WOULD
ALSO NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH
WITH ANY BRIEF HEAVY SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE BY WED
EVENING...THOUGH SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS EASTERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
* HIGHLIGHTS...

- COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
- SEASONABLE AND DRY FOR THURSDAY
- SIGNIFICANT STORM APPEARING MORE LIKELY FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND
- APPEARING UNSEASONABLY COOLER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK

* OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN NOT SO MUCH THIS
WEEKEND. 28/00Z ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUE TO DIFFER
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE REST OF THE 28/00Z GUIDANCE SUITE. THE
MAJOR DIFFERENCE INVOLVES A LINGERING CLOSED SURFACE LOW...ALONG
WITH A STRONGER...NEGATIVELY-TILTED...MID LEVEL TROUGH. AT THIS
POINT...FAVORED A CONSENSUS SOLUTION TO MITIGATE THE TIMING AND
LOCATION ERRORS. WE THINK IT WISE TO NOT DISMISS THE ECMWF-BASED
SOLUTIONS ENTIRELY. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS ABOUT AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME RANGE. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE...UNTIL THE
TIMING ISSUES CAN BE WORKED OUT. STAY TUNED.

* DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE...TAKING ANY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT.

HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FOR THURSDAY WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER...BUT
STILL SEASONABLE...CONDITIONS.

AS TO FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...NO ONE PARTICULAR
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION IS PREFERRED. JUST ABOUT ALL GUIDANCE
SOURCES SHOWING A CLASSIC ENERGY TRANSFER FROM AN INLAND LOW
PRESSURE TO AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE. THE PROBLEM IS THE DETAILS
ARE WIDELY DIFFERENT...AND WILL BE CRUCIAL.

OVERALL AGREEMENT ON BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THIS WOULD OPEN
THE DOOR TO POTENTIAL LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS. IT IS ALSO
POSSIBLE THE OFFSHORE LOW DEVELOPMENT IS SO FAR OUT TO
SEA...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WINDS UP IN THE DRIER AIR...WITH LITTLE
TO NO PRECIPITATION.

MONDAY...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...BUT DRIER.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR. MID LEVEL CLOUDS /AROUND 6KFT/ PUSH ACROSS N MA/S NH
THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN CIGS INCREASE.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS PUSH INTO CT VALLEY
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS. LOW PROB OF LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CT VALLEY IN ISOLD HEAVIER SHOWERS
AND PATCHY FOG. S-SW WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT ACROSS S
COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT
SHOWERS. S-SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT ALONG S COAST...CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS BY MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOW PROB WIND
GUST TO 30 KT. LOW PROB OF ISOLD TSTMS ACROSS E MA/S CENTRAL NH
INTO E RI DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE ON A BRIEF SOUTHEAST
SEA BREEZE LATE THIS MORNING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MIX OF MVFR TO LOW END IFR
CIGS/ MVFR VSBYS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS
WITH SCT -SHRA. IMPROVING BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO
THE NW.

THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH NW WINDS
DIMINISHING.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS. CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING WITH A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM IN VICINITY OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...EXPECT S-SW WINDS TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY. MAY SEE SOME
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD BUT LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW 5 FT.

TONIGHT...S-SW WINDS PICK UP...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ON THE
SOUTHERN WATERS AND SEAS BUILDING. SMALL CRAFTS WILL BE POSTED.

WEDNESDAY...EXPECT SW WINDS AND SEAS AOA SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
MAINLY ON THE OUTER WATERS FROM E OF CAPE COD SOUTHWARD. COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS SHIFT TO W
ON THE WESTERN WATERS LATE IN THE DAY. VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN SCT
SHOWERS. ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE. SEAS
BUILDING AROUND 5-7 FEET...LIKELY RESULTING IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
HEADLINES. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING.

THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

RELATIVELY TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CONDITIONS DETERIORATING AS A STORM BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND
THE COASTAL WATERS. EXPECTING NORTHWEST WINDS TO INTENSIFY...WITH
WIND GUSTS APPROACHING GALE FORCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SEAS BUILDING
AS WELL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT




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