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000
FXUS61 KBOX 292333
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
633 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
WITH A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST AND INTENSIFYING OVER THE GULF OF MAINE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING BRINGING WITH IT A PERIOD OF SNOW FOR THE FORECAST AREA.
BLUSTERY AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF NOREASTERS NEXT WEEK...ONE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND ANOTHER POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE ON BOTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

7 PM UPDATE...

MONITORING S-WINDS ALOFT AND THE MARINE STRATUS OFFSHORE. SHOULD
SEE A S-DRAW OF MOISTURE OFF THE WATERS LENDING TO LOW-CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT AS WE APPROACH MIDNIGHT. MEANWHILE SNOWS SHOULD BEGIN
TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. STILL LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS IN
PLACE WHICH WILL MAKE IT SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT FOR SNOW TO REACH THE
GROUND-SURFACE. AS MENTIONED BY THE PRIOR FORECASTER...IT WILL
TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE COLUMN TO SATURATE.

HI-RES GUID ALONG WITH GLOBAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SNOW
ARRIVING ACROSS CT/WESTERN-CENTRAL MA BETWEEN 03Z/10PM TO
06Z/1AM...THEN INTO EASTERN MA AND RI 06Z/1AM TO 12Z/7AM.

AN INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK ACROSS CT/WESTERN-CENTRAL
MA TO A DUSTING TO LESS THAN AN INCH OVER RI AND EASTERN MA. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PRECIP WILL BE EITHER A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN OR
ALL RAIN ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI INCLUDING CAPE COD AND
THE ISLANDS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF CLIPPER LOW WARMS BOUNDARY
LAYER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

*** PLOWABLE SNOWFALL LIKELY FOR MUCH OF NORTH-NORTHEAST MA ***

FORECAST WAS BASED ON A MODEL BLEND GIVEN GOOD CLUSTERING AMONGST
THE MODELS REGARDING THEIR MASS FIELDS...QPF AND THERMAL.

AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT LATE FRI
AND THEN EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED MID LEVEL OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS STRONG FORCING ALOFT RESULTS IN PARENT LOW OVER NY STATE
FADING/FILLING AND GIVING WAY TO CYCLOGENESIS ALONG OR JUST OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST FRI. THIS ROBUST MID/UPPER TROUGH RESULTS
IN SECONDARY LOW PRES DEEPENING TO ABOUT 985 MB OVER THE WESTERN
GULF OF MAINE 12Z SAT. IN ADDITION THE MID/UPPER LOW CAPTURES THE
SURFACE CYCLONE AND PULLS IT BACK BRIEFLY TOWARD EASTERN MA
COASTLINE LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THIS SLOWS THE SYSTEM DOWN AND
RESULTS IN A ROBUST COMMA-HEAD DEVELOPING FRI NIGHT OVER NORTHEAST
MA POSSIBLY WESTWARD INTO WORCESTER COUNTY.

AS MID LEVEL TROUGH TRANSITIONS FROM AN OPEN WAVE TO A CLOSED
CIRCULATION FRI NIGHT OVER EASTERN MA A MODEST SNOW BAND WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP. ALSO UNCERTAINTY ON EXACTLY WHERE THESE BANDS SETUP AND
INTENSITY. HOWEVER MODEL CONSENSUS QPF YIELDS 0.5-0.6 INCHES OVER
NORTHEAST MA...POSSIBLY WESTWARD INTO WORCESTER COUNTY. THEREFORE
HAVE UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ESSEX AND MIDDLESEX
COUNTIES. LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO EXPAND THE WARNING WESTWARD INTO
WORCESTER COUNTY PENDING 00Z MODEL TRENDS. GIVEN THE BANDING
SIGNATURE AND MODEL CONSENSUS QPF EXPANDED ADVISORIES INTO SOUTHERN
WORCESTER/NORTHEAST CT/NORTHERN RI INTO NORTHERN BRISTOL COUNTY OF
MA FOR 2-4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL.

THOUGHT PROCESS WAS SNOWFALL MAY FALL JUST SHORT OF WARNING AND/OR
ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT REALIZING ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL WILL BE
PROBLEMATIC REGARDING SNOW REMOVAL ESPECIALLY IN THE URBAN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED 30+ EARLIER THIS WEEK. ALSO ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL MAY
RESULT IN SNOW LOAD/STRESS TO ROOFS. THEREFORE OUR WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES ARE SOMEWHAT BASED ON IMPACTS TOO.

PTYPE...ALL SNOW MOST OF THE AREA EXPECT SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI
INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS WHERE RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW CHANGES
BACK TO ALL SNOW FRI EVENING.

FOG? MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF WARM/MOIST AIR OVER
THE DEEPER SNOWPACK TO RESULT IN DENSE GROUND FOG. AREAS ACROSS
E/SE MA WHICH SAW CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF SNOW WOULD /CLIMATOLOGICALLY-
SPEAKING/ EXPECT TO BE SOCKED IN CONDITIONS WHEN A WARM/HUMID
AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

IN ADDITION TO THE SNOWFALL FRI NIGHT NORTH AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 35 TO 45 MPH AS LOW INTENSIFIES EAST OF MA.
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS OF 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO IN HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND W MA...WITH 5 TO 10 BELOW IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR HIGHER TERRAIN IN
CENTRAL AND W MA. LOOKS BORDERLINE SO DID NOT HOIST ANY HEADLINES
THERE. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO REEVALUATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

HEADLINES...

* SNOW ENDS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS EARLY SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC
  HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
* WATCHING FOR POTENTIAL NOREASTERS NEXT WEEK

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
OCEAN STORM OFF THE MAINE COAST ON SATURDAY WILL EXIT TO THE EAST...
BRINGING AN END TO ANY SNOWFALL ACROSS COASTAL LOCALES SATURDAY
MORNING. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY ON A
BLUSTERY NW WIND FLOW AS A COLD AIRMASS MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND FROM
CANADA. THIS WILL ENSURE A VERY COLD WEEKEND WITH TEMPS RUNNING WELL
BELOW AVERAGE.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE SHORTWAVES DIVING INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
POTENTIAL NOREASTERS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER, MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW
SHARP THE TROUGHS BECOME...WHETHER THEY BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AND
PHASE OR NOT WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY.

THERE HAVE BEEN MODEL DIFFERENCES FROM BOTH GFS/ECMWF IN TERMS OF
THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOWS SO WILL FOLLOW A BLENDED MODEL
APPROACH. THE TIMING OF THESE POTENTIAL SYSTEMS LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THESE
ARE THE PERIODS TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACTS TO THE AREA.
WHETHER OR NOT WE RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL OR THESE
OCEAN STORMS MISS US TO THE EAST IS JUST TOO TOUGH TO SAY WITH ANY
DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE. SO STAY TUNED.

FOR THE SUN NIGHT-MONDAY LOW...BOTH THE OPERATIONAL 29.12Z GFS AND
ECMWF RUNS HAVE THE LOW CENTER PASSING JUST OUTSIDE THE BENCHMARK
WHICH WOULD MEAN A GLANCING BLOW TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT
STILL A PLOWABLE SNOWFALL TO EASTERN AREAS. HOWEVER, A FEW ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE FURTHER NORTHWEST WITH THE LOW TRACK...SO A MORE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS A POSSIBILITY...AS IS NO IMPACT IF THE LOW
WERE TO TRACK EVEN FURTHER OFF SHORE. THE FIRST RUNS OF THE
OPERATIONAL ECMWF FOR THE BLIZZARD OF 2015 DIDN`T SHOW MAJOR IMPACTS
TO NEW ENGLAND UNTIL 72 HR IN ADVANCE OF THE EVENT. WE ARE STILL
OUTSIDE OF THIS WINDOW...SO LOTS CAN CHANGE.

TUESDAY WILL BE A LULL DAY IF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW IMPACTS NEW
ENGLAND. THEN WE LOOK TO YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL OCEAN STORM MID
WEEK...WITH MODELS CENTERING ON THE WED NIGHT-THU TIMEFRAME. THE
29.12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS LOW...SLAMMING
HEAVY SNOWS OVER THE INTERIOR WITH A SNOW TO RAIN SCENARIO FOR THE
COAST. HOWEVER, THE GFS DOES NOT PHASE THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAMS...SO IS PROGRESSIVE AND SHOWS MINIMAL IMPACTS. SO USED A
MODEL BLEND AND...ONCE AGAIN...TOO EARLY TO BANK ON EITHER A HIT OR
A MISS. CERTAINLY A LOT TO MONITOR CLOSELY IN THE DAYS AHEAD!

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRI NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

0Z UPDATE...

TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...

CIGS LOWER MVFR / IFR WITH S-DRAW OF AIR ADVECTING MARINE STRATUS
ONSHORE AS -SN BEGINS TO ENVELOP THE TERMINALS W TO E MIXING /
CHANGING TO RAIN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S/SE-COAST INCLUDING THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS. TAILORED DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TOWARDS THE MIDDAY
INTO LATE-AFTERNOON PERIOD. HIGHLIGHTED THE WORST OF ANTICIPATED
CONDITIONS WITH IFR VSBYS. GOING TO HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY THE
S-DRAW OF WARM/MOIST AIR OVER DEEP SNOWPACK. COULD SEE CONDITIONS
BECOME SOCKED IN WITH AN APPRECIABLE GROUND FOG JUST ABOVE THE
SNOW.

SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT INTO EVENING AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE NW
GUSTING 25-30 KTS ALLOW CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE VFR.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
TIMING OF SNOW AND LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
TIMING OF SNOW AND LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25-35
KNOTS SATURDAY...HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST. LIGHTER WINDS SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. LOW PRES DEVELOPS S OF THE
REGION...BUT TRACK REMAINS UNCERTAIN. TOO EARLY TO HAVE ANY
CONFIDENCE ON VFR OR IFR THIS PERIOD.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IF LOW IMPACTS THE TERMINALS MONDAY,
CONDITIONS WOULD BE IMPROVING ON TUE.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

7 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.

TONIGHT...INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF LOW PRES
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...BUT WIND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SCA.

FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO W THEN NW DURING FRI
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT DEVELOPING ACROSS RI COASTAL
WATERS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

FRI NIGHT...LOW PRES INTENSIFIES OVER WESTERN GULF OF MAINE WITH
WIDESPREAD NNW GALES. SNOW REDUCES VSBY AS WELL.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH AS LOW PRESSURE
DEPARTS THE AREA.

SUNDAY...EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH BUT REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS...THOUGH SOME GALE GUSTS MAY LINGER ON THE EASTERN OUTER
WATERS EARLY. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE...BUT WILL REMAIN AOA 5 FT
ON THE OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON STRENGTH AND TRACK OF
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE REGION AND THUS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WORSE CONDITIONS WOULD BE MONDAY WITH SLOW
IMPROVEMENT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR CTZ004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MAZ004-012-013-015>019.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MAZ005>007-014-026.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR RIZ001.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY
     FOR ANZ230>234-251.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-
     237.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254-255.
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/GREGORIA
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/SIPPRELL/GREGORIA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...GREGORIA
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL/GREGORIA
MARINE...NOCERA/GREGORIA



000
FXUS61 KBOX 292154
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
454 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
WITH A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST AND INTENSIFYING OVER THE GULF OF MAINE FRI INTO FRI
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW LATER TONIGHT AND
FRI...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI NIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE REGION.
BLUSTERY AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. WATCHING
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF NOREASTERS NEXT WEEK...ONE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT-
MONDAY AND ANOTHER POSSIBLE WED NIGHT-THU. LOW CONFIDENCE ON BOTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

CLIPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. DESPITE LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
SYSTEM DEW PT DEPRESSIONS VERY LARGE OVER INTERIOR MA AND CT WITH
VALUES 20 TO 30! THUS WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE COLUMN TO
SATURATE. HI RES GUID ALONG WITH GLOBAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH SNOW ARRIVING ACROSS CT/WESTERN-CENTRAL MA BETWEEN 03Z/10PM
TO 06Z/1AM...THEN INTO EASTERN MA AND RI 06Z/1AM TO 12Z/7AM. AN
INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK ACROSS CT/WESTERN-CENTRAL MA
TO A DUSTING TO LESS THAN AN INCH OVER RI AND EASTERN MA. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PRECIP WILL BE EITHER A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN OR
ALL RAIN ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI INCLUDING CAPE COD AND
THE ISLANDS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF CLIPPER LOW WARMS BOUNDARY
LAYER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

*** PLOWABLE SNOWFALL LIKELY FOR MUCH OF NORTH-NORTHEAST MA ***

FORECAST WAS BASED ON A MODEL BLEND GIVEN GOOD CLUSTERING AMONGST
THE MODELS REGARDING THEIR MASS FIELDS...QPF AND THERMAL.

AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT LATE FRI
AND THEN EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED MID LEVEL OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS STRONG FORCING ALOFT RESULTS IN PARENT LOW OVER NY STATE
FADING/FILLING AND GIVING WAY TO CYCLOGENESIS ALONG OR JUST OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST FRI. THIS ROBUST MID/UPPER TROUGH RESULTS
IN SECONDARY LOW PRES DEEPENING TO ABOUT 985 MB OVER THE WESTERN
GULF OF MAINE 12Z SAT. IN ADDITION THE MID/UPPER LOW CAPTURES THE
SURFACE CYCLONE AND PULLS IT BACK BRIEFLY TOWARD EASTERN MA
COASTLINE LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THIS SLOWS THE SYSTEM DOWN AND
RESULTS IN A ROBUST COMMA-HEAD DEVELOPING FRI NIGHT OVER NORTHEAST
MA POSSIBLY WESTWARD INTO WORCESTER COUNTY.

AS MID LEVEL TROUGH TRANSITIONS FROM AN OPEN WAVE TO A CLOSED
CIRCULATION FRI NIGHT OVER EASTERN MA A MODEST SNOW BAND WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP. ALSO UNCERTAINTY ON EXACTLY WHERE THESE BANDS SETUP AND
INTENSITY. HOWEVER MODEL CONSENSUS QPF YIELDS 0.5-0.6 INCHES OVER
NORTHEAST MA...POSSIBLY WESTWARD INTO WORCESTER COUNTY. THEREFORE
HAVE UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ESSEX AND MIDDLESEX
COUNTIES. LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO EXPAND THE WARNING WESTWARD INTO
WORCESTER COUNTY PENDING 00Z MODEL TRENDS. GIVEN THE BANDING
SIGNATURE AND MODEL CONSENSUS QPF EXPANDED ADVISORIES INTO SOUTHERN
WORCESTER/NORTHEAST CT/NORTHERN RI INTO NORTHERN BRISTOL COUNTY OF
MA FOR 2-4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL.

THOUGHT PROCESS WAS SNOWFALL MAY FALL JUST SHORT OF WARNING AND/OR
ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT REALIZING ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL WILL BE
PROBLEMATIC REGARDING SNOW REMOVAL ESPECIALLY IN THE URBAN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED 30+ EARLIER THIS WEEK. ALSO ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL MAY
RESULT IN SNOW LOAD/STRESS TO ROOFS. THEREFORE OUR WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES ARE SOMEWHAT BASED ON IMPACTS TOO.

PTYPE...ALL SNOW MOST OF THE AREA EXPECT SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI
INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS WHERE RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW CHANGES
BACK TO ALL SNOW FRI EVENING.

IN ADDITION TO THE SNOWFALL FRI NIGHT NORTH AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 35 TO 45 MPH AS LOW INTENSIFIES EAST OF MA.
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS OF 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO IN HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND W MA...WITH 5 TO 10 BELOW IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR HIGHER TERRAIN IN
CENTRAL AND W MA. LOOKS BORDERLINE SO DID NOT HOIST ANY HEADLINES
THERE. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO REEVALUATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

HEADLINES...

* SNOW ENDS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS EARLY SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC
  HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
* WATCHING FOR POTENTIAL NOREASTERS NEXT WEEK

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
OCEAN STORM OFF THE MAINE COAST ON SATURDAY WILL EXIT TO THE EAST...
BRINGING AN END TO ANY SNOWFALL ACROSS COASTAL LOCALES SATURDAY
MORNING. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY ON A
BLUSTERY NW WIND FLOW AS A COLD AIRMASS MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND FROM
CANADA. THIS WILL ENSURE A VERY COLD WEEKEND WITH TEMPS RUNNING WELL
BELOW AVERAGE.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE SHORTWAVES DIVING INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
POTENTIAL NOREASTERS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER, MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW
SHARP THE TROUGHS BECOME...WHETHER THEY BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AND
PHASE OR NOT WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY.

THERE HAVE BEEN MODEL DIFFERENCES FROM BOTH GFS/ECMWF IN TERMS OF
THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOWS SO WILL FOLLOW A BLENDED MODEL
APPROACH. THE TIMING OF THESE POTENTIAL SYSTEMS LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THESE
ARE THE PERIODS TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACTS TO THE AREA.
WHETHER OR NOT WE RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL OR THESE
OCEAN STORMS MISS US TO THE EAST IS JUST TOO TOUGH TO SAY WITH ANY
DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE. SO STAY TUNED.

FOR THE SUN NIGHT-MONDAY LOW...BOTH THE OPERATIONAL 29.12Z GFS AND
ECMWF RUNS HAVE THE LOW CENTER PASSING JUST OUTSIDE THE BENCHMARK
WHICH WOULD MEAN A GLANCING BLOW TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT
STILL A PLOWABLE SNOWFALL TO EASTERN AREAS. HOWEVER, A FEW ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE FURTHER NORTHWEST WITH THE LOW TRACK...SO A MORE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS A POSSIBILITY...AS IS NO IMPACT IF THE LOW
WERE TO TRACK EVEN FURTHER OFF SHORE. THE FIRST RUNS OF THE
OPERATIONAL ECMWF FOR THE BLIZZARD OF 2015 DIDN`T SHOW MAJOR IMPACTS
TO NEW ENGLAND UNTIL 72 HR IN ADVANCE OF THE EVENT. WE ARE STILL
OUTSIDE OF THIS WINDOW...SO LOTS CAN CHANGE.

TUESDAY WILL BE A LULL DAY IF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW IMPACTS NEW
ENGLAND. THEN WE LOOK TO YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL OCEAN STORM MID
WEEK...WITH MODELS CENTERING ON THE WED NIGHT-THU TIMEFRAME. THE
29.12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS LOW...SLAMMING
HEAVY SNOWS OVER THE INTERIOR WITH A SNOW TO RAIN SCENARIO FOR THE
COAST. HOWEVER, THE GFS DOES NOT PHASE THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAMS...SO IS PROGRESSIVE AND SHOWS MINIMAL IMPACTS. SO USED A
MODEL BLEND AND...ONCE AGAIN...TOO EARLY TO BANK ON EITHER A HIT OR
A MISS. CERTAINLY A LOT TO MONITOR CLOSELY IN THE DAYS AHEAD!

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRI NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...CIGS LOWER OVERNIGHT TO MVFR-IFR IN
OCCASIONAL SNOW. THE SNOW MAY MIX OR CHANGE TO RAIN ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE S COAST AND ESPECIALLY THE CAPE/ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND
FRI. SNOW DIMINISHES FRI AFTERNOON IN THE CT VALLEY BUT CONTINUES
ACROSS E NEW ENG. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 25-30 KT AND VFR CIGS DEVELOPING IN THE CT VALLEY BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
TIMING OF SNOW AND LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
TIMING OF SNOW AND LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25-35
KNOTS SATURDAY...HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST. LIGHTER WINDS SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. LOW PRES DEVELOPS S OF THE
REGION...BUT TRACK REMAINS UNCERTAIN. TOO EARLY TO HAVE ANY
CONFIDENCE ON VFR OR IFR THIS PERIOD.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IF LOW IMPACTS THE TERMINALS MONDAY,
CONDITIONS WOULD BE IMPROVING ON TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF LOW PRES
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...BUT WIND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SCA.

FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO W THEN NW DURING FRI
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT DEVELOPING ACROSS RI COASTAL
WATERS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

FRI NIGHT...LOW PRES INTENSIFIES OVER WESTERN GULF OF MAINE WITH
WIDESPREAD NNW GALES. SNOW REDUCES VSBY AS WELL.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH AS LOW PRESSURE
DEPARTS THE AREA.

SUNDAY...EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH BUT REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS...THOUGH SOME GALE GUSTS MAY LINGER ON THE EASTERN OUTER
WATERS EARLY. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE...BUT WILL REMAIN AOA 5 FT
ON THE OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON STRENGTH AND TRACK OF
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE REGION AND THUS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WORSE CONDITIONS WOULD BE MONDAY WITH SLOW
IMPROVEMENT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR CTZ004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MAZ004-012-013-015>019.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MAZ005>007-014-026.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR RIZ001.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY
     FOR ANZ230>234-251.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-
     237.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254-255.
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...GREGORIA
AVIATION...NOCERA/GREGORIA
MARINE...NOCERA/GREGORIA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 292154
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
454 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
WITH A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST AND INTENSIFYING OVER THE GULF OF MAINE FRI INTO FRI
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW LATER TONIGHT AND
FRI...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI NIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE REGION.
BLUSTERY AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. WATCHING
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF NOREASTERS NEXT WEEK...ONE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT-
MONDAY AND ANOTHER POSSIBLE WED NIGHT-THU. LOW CONFIDENCE ON BOTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

CLIPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. DESPITE LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
SYSTEM DEW PT DEPRESSIONS VERY LARGE OVER INTERIOR MA AND CT WITH
VALUES 20 TO 30! THUS WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE COLUMN TO
SATURATE. HI RES GUID ALONG WITH GLOBAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH SNOW ARRIVING ACROSS CT/WESTERN-CENTRAL MA BETWEEN 03Z/10PM
TO 06Z/1AM...THEN INTO EASTERN MA AND RI 06Z/1AM TO 12Z/7AM. AN
INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK ACROSS CT/WESTERN-CENTRAL MA
TO A DUSTING TO LESS THAN AN INCH OVER RI AND EASTERN MA. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PRECIP WILL BE EITHER A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN OR
ALL RAIN ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI INCLUDING CAPE COD AND
THE ISLANDS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF CLIPPER LOW WARMS BOUNDARY
LAYER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

*** PLOWABLE SNOWFALL LIKELY FOR MUCH OF NORTH-NORTHEAST MA ***

FORECAST WAS BASED ON A MODEL BLEND GIVEN GOOD CLUSTERING AMONGST
THE MODELS REGARDING THEIR MASS FIELDS...QPF AND THERMAL.

AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT LATE FRI
AND THEN EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED MID LEVEL OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS STRONG FORCING ALOFT RESULTS IN PARENT LOW OVER NY STATE
FADING/FILLING AND GIVING WAY TO CYCLOGENESIS ALONG OR JUST OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST FRI. THIS ROBUST MID/UPPER TROUGH RESULTS
IN SECONDARY LOW PRES DEEPENING TO ABOUT 985 MB OVER THE WESTERN
GULF OF MAINE 12Z SAT. IN ADDITION THE MID/UPPER LOW CAPTURES THE
SURFACE CYCLONE AND PULLS IT BACK BRIEFLY TOWARD EASTERN MA
COASTLINE LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THIS SLOWS THE SYSTEM DOWN AND
RESULTS IN A ROBUST COMMA-HEAD DEVELOPING FRI NIGHT OVER NORTHEAST
MA POSSIBLY WESTWARD INTO WORCESTER COUNTY.

AS MID LEVEL TROUGH TRANSITIONS FROM AN OPEN WAVE TO A CLOSED
CIRCULATION FRI NIGHT OVER EASTERN MA A MODEST SNOW BAND WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP. ALSO UNCERTAINTY ON EXACTLY WHERE THESE BANDS SETUP AND
INTENSITY. HOWEVER MODEL CONSENSUS QPF YIELDS 0.5-0.6 INCHES OVER
NORTHEAST MA...POSSIBLY WESTWARD INTO WORCESTER COUNTY. THEREFORE
HAVE UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ESSEX AND MIDDLESEX
COUNTIES. LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO EXPAND THE WARNING WESTWARD INTO
WORCESTER COUNTY PENDING 00Z MODEL TRENDS. GIVEN THE BANDING
SIGNATURE AND MODEL CONSENSUS QPF EXPANDED ADVISORIES INTO SOUTHERN
WORCESTER/NORTHEAST CT/NORTHERN RI INTO NORTHERN BRISTOL COUNTY OF
MA FOR 2-4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL.

THOUGHT PROCESS WAS SNOWFALL MAY FALL JUST SHORT OF WARNING AND/OR
ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT REALIZING ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL WILL BE
PROBLEMATIC REGARDING SNOW REMOVAL ESPECIALLY IN THE URBAN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED 30+ EARLIER THIS WEEK. ALSO ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL MAY
RESULT IN SNOW LOAD/STRESS TO ROOFS. THEREFORE OUR WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES ARE SOMEWHAT BASED ON IMPACTS TOO.

PTYPE...ALL SNOW MOST OF THE AREA EXPECT SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI
INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS WHERE RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW CHANGES
BACK TO ALL SNOW FRI EVENING.

IN ADDITION TO THE SNOWFALL FRI NIGHT NORTH AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 35 TO 45 MPH AS LOW INTENSIFIES EAST OF MA.
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS OF 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO IN HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND W MA...WITH 5 TO 10 BELOW IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR HIGHER TERRAIN IN
CENTRAL AND W MA. LOOKS BORDERLINE SO DID NOT HOIST ANY HEADLINES
THERE. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO REEVALUATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

HEADLINES...

* SNOW ENDS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS EARLY SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC
  HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
* WATCHING FOR POTENTIAL NOREASTERS NEXT WEEK

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
OCEAN STORM OFF THE MAINE COAST ON SATURDAY WILL EXIT TO THE EAST...
BRINGING AN END TO ANY SNOWFALL ACROSS COASTAL LOCALES SATURDAY
MORNING. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY ON A
BLUSTERY NW WIND FLOW AS A COLD AIRMASS MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND FROM
CANADA. THIS WILL ENSURE A VERY COLD WEEKEND WITH TEMPS RUNNING WELL
BELOW AVERAGE.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE SHORTWAVES DIVING INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
POTENTIAL NOREASTERS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER, MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW
SHARP THE TROUGHS BECOME...WHETHER THEY BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AND
PHASE OR NOT WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY.

THERE HAVE BEEN MODEL DIFFERENCES FROM BOTH GFS/ECMWF IN TERMS OF
THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOWS SO WILL FOLLOW A BLENDED MODEL
APPROACH. THE TIMING OF THESE POTENTIAL SYSTEMS LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THESE
ARE THE PERIODS TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACTS TO THE AREA.
WHETHER OR NOT WE RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL OR THESE
OCEAN STORMS MISS US TO THE EAST IS JUST TOO TOUGH TO SAY WITH ANY
DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE. SO STAY TUNED.

FOR THE SUN NIGHT-MONDAY LOW...BOTH THE OPERATIONAL 29.12Z GFS AND
ECMWF RUNS HAVE THE LOW CENTER PASSING JUST OUTSIDE THE BENCHMARK
WHICH WOULD MEAN A GLANCING BLOW TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT
STILL A PLOWABLE SNOWFALL TO EASTERN AREAS. HOWEVER, A FEW ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE FURTHER NORTHWEST WITH THE LOW TRACK...SO A MORE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS A POSSIBILITY...AS IS NO IMPACT IF THE LOW
WERE TO TRACK EVEN FURTHER OFF SHORE. THE FIRST RUNS OF THE
OPERATIONAL ECMWF FOR THE BLIZZARD OF 2015 DIDN`T SHOW MAJOR IMPACTS
TO NEW ENGLAND UNTIL 72 HR IN ADVANCE OF THE EVENT. WE ARE STILL
OUTSIDE OF THIS WINDOW...SO LOTS CAN CHANGE.

TUESDAY WILL BE A LULL DAY IF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW IMPACTS NEW
ENGLAND. THEN WE LOOK TO YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL OCEAN STORM MID
WEEK...WITH MODELS CENTERING ON THE WED NIGHT-THU TIMEFRAME. THE
29.12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS LOW...SLAMMING
HEAVY SNOWS OVER THE INTERIOR WITH A SNOW TO RAIN SCENARIO FOR THE
COAST. HOWEVER, THE GFS DOES NOT PHASE THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAMS...SO IS PROGRESSIVE AND SHOWS MINIMAL IMPACTS. SO USED A
MODEL BLEND AND...ONCE AGAIN...TOO EARLY TO BANK ON EITHER A HIT OR
A MISS. CERTAINLY A LOT TO MONITOR CLOSELY IN THE DAYS AHEAD!

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRI NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...CIGS LOWER OVERNIGHT TO MVFR-IFR IN
OCCASIONAL SNOW. THE SNOW MAY MIX OR CHANGE TO RAIN ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE S COAST AND ESPECIALLY THE CAPE/ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND
FRI. SNOW DIMINISHES FRI AFTERNOON IN THE CT VALLEY BUT CONTINUES
ACROSS E NEW ENG. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 25-30 KT AND VFR CIGS DEVELOPING IN THE CT VALLEY BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
TIMING OF SNOW AND LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
TIMING OF SNOW AND LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25-35
KNOTS SATURDAY...HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST. LIGHTER WINDS SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. LOW PRES DEVELOPS S OF THE
REGION...BUT TRACK REMAINS UNCERTAIN. TOO EARLY TO HAVE ANY
CONFIDENCE ON VFR OR IFR THIS PERIOD.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IF LOW IMPACTS THE TERMINALS MONDAY,
CONDITIONS WOULD BE IMPROVING ON TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF LOW PRES
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...BUT WIND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SCA.

FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO W THEN NW DURING FRI
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT DEVELOPING ACROSS RI COASTAL
WATERS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

FRI NIGHT...LOW PRES INTENSIFIES OVER WESTERN GULF OF MAINE WITH
WIDESPREAD NNW GALES. SNOW REDUCES VSBY AS WELL.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH AS LOW PRESSURE
DEPARTS THE AREA.

SUNDAY...EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH BUT REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS...THOUGH SOME GALE GUSTS MAY LINGER ON THE EASTERN OUTER
WATERS EARLY. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE...BUT WILL REMAIN AOA 5 FT
ON THE OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON STRENGTH AND TRACK OF
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE REGION AND THUS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WORSE CONDITIONS WOULD BE MONDAY WITH SLOW
IMPROVEMENT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR CTZ004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MAZ004-012-013-015>019.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MAZ005>007-014-026.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR RIZ001.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY
     FOR ANZ230>234-251.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-
     237.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254-255.
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...GREGORIA
AVIATION...NOCERA/GREGORIA
MARINE...NOCERA/GREGORIA



000
FXUS61 KBOX 292154
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
454 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
WITH A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST AND INTENSIFYING OVER THE GULF OF MAINE FRI INTO FRI
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW LATER TONIGHT AND
FRI...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI NIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE REGION.
BLUSTERY AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. WATCHING
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF NOREASTERS NEXT WEEK...ONE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT-
MONDAY AND ANOTHER POSSIBLE WED NIGHT-THU. LOW CONFIDENCE ON BOTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

CLIPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. DESPITE LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
SYSTEM DEW PT DEPRESSIONS VERY LARGE OVER INTERIOR MA AND CT WITH
VALUES 20 TO 30! THUS WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE COLUMN TO
SATURATE. HI RES GUID ALONG WITH GLOBAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH SNOW ARRIVING ACROSS CT/WESTERN-CENTRAL MA BETWEEN 03Z/10PM
TO 06Z/1AM...THEN INTO EASTERN MA AND RI 06Z/1AM TO 12Z/7AM. AN
INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK ACROSS CT/WESTERN-CENTRAL MA
TO A DUSTING TO LESS THAN AN INCH OVER RI AND EASTERN MA. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PRECIP WILL BE EITHER A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN OR
ALL RAIN ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI INCLUDING CAPE COD AND
THE ISLANDS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF CLIPPER LOW WARMS BOUNDARY
LAYER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

*** PLOWABLE SNOWFALL LIKELY FOR MUCH OF NORTH-NORTHEAST MA ***

FORECAST WAS BASED ON A MODEL BLEND GIVEN GOOD CLUSTERING AMONGST
THE MODELS REGARDING THEIR MASS FIELDS...QPF AND THERMAL.

AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT LATE FRI
AND THEN EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED MID LEVEL OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS STRONG FORCING ALOFT RESULTS IN PARENT LOW OVER NY STATE
FADING/FILLING AND GIVING WAY TO CYCLOGENESIS ALONG OR JUST OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST FRI. THIS ROBUST MID/UPPER TROUGH RESULTS
IN SECONDARY LOW PRES DEEPENING TO ABOUT 985 MB OVER THE WESTERN
GULF OF MAINE 12Z SAT. IN ADDITION THE MID/UPPER LOW CAPTURES THE
SURFACE CYCLONE AND PULLS IT BACK BRIEFLY TOWARD EASTERN MA
COASTLINE LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THIS SLOWS THE SYSTEM DOWN AND
RESULTS IN A ROBUST COMMA-HEAD DEVELOPING FRI NIGHT OVER NORTHEAST
MA POSSIBLY WESTWARD INTO WORCESTER COUNTY.

AS MID LEVEL TROUGH TRANSITIONS FROM AN OPEN WAVE TO A CLOSED
CIRCULATION FRI NIGHT OVER EASTERN MA A MODEST SNOW BAND WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP. ALSO UNCERTAINTY ON EXACTLY WHERE THESE BANDS SETUP AND
INTENSITY. HOWEVER MODEL CONSENSUS QPF YIELDS 0.5-0.6 INCHES OVER
NORTHEAST MA...POSSIBLY WESTWARD INTO WORCESTER COUNTY. THEREFORE
HAVE UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ESSEX AND MIDDLESEX
COUNTIES. LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO EXPAND THE WARNING WESTWARD INTO
WORCESTER COUNTY PENDING 00Z MODEL TRENDS. GIVEN THE BANDING
SIGNATURE AND MODEL CONSENSUS QPF EXPANDED ADVISORIES INTO SOUTHERN
WORCESTER/NORTHEAST CT/NORTHERN RI INTO NORTHERN BRISTOL COUNTY OF
MA FOR 2-4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL.

THOUGHT PROCESS WAS SNOWFALL MAY FALL JUST SHORT OF WARNING AND/OR
ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT REALIZING ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL WILL BE
PROBLEMATIC REGARDING SNOW REMOVAL ESPECIALLY IN THE URBAN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED 30+ EARLIER THIS WEEK. ALSO ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL MAY
RESULT IN SNOW LOAD/STRESS TO ROOFS. THEREFORE OUR WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES ARE SOMEWHAT BASED ON IMPACTS TOO.

PTYPE...ALL SNOW MOST OF THE AREA EXPECT SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI
INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS WHERE RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW CHANGES
BACK TO ALL SNOW FRI EVENING.

IN ADDITION TO THE SNOWFALL FRI NIGHT NORTH AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 35 TO 45 MPH AS LOW INTENSIFIES EAST OF MA.
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS OF 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO IN HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND W MA...WITH 5 TO 10 BELOW IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR HIGHER TERRAIN IN
CENTRAL AND W MA. LOOKS BORDERLINE SO DID NOT HOIST ANY HEADLINES
THERE. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO REEVALUATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

HEADLINES...

* SNOW ENDS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS EARLY SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC
  HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
* WATCHING FOR POTENTIAL NOREASTERS NEXT WEEK

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
OCEAN STORM OFF THE MAINE COAST ON SATURDAY WILL EXIT TO THE EAST...
BRINGING AN END TO ANY SNOWFALL ACROSS COASTAL LOCALES SATURDAY
MORNING. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY ON A
BLUSTERY NW WIND FLOW AS A COLD AIRMASS MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND FROM
CANADA. THIS WILL ENSURE A VERY COLD WEEKEND WITH TEMPS RUNNING WELL
BELOW AVERAGE.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE SHORTWAVES DIVING INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
POTENTIAL NOREASTERS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER, MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW
SHARP THE TROUGHS BECOME...WHETHER THEY BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AND
PHASE OR NOT WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY.

THERE HAVE BEEN MODEL DIFFERENCES FROM BOTH GFS/ECMWF IN TERMS OF
THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOWS SO WILL FOLLOW A BLENDED MODEL
APPROACH. THE TIMING OF THESE POTENTIAL SYSTEMS LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THESE
ARE THE PERIODS TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACTS TO THE AREA.
WHETHER OR NOT WE RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL OR THESE
OCEAN STORMS MISS US TO THE EAST IS JUST TOO TOUGH TO SAY WITH ANY
DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE. SO STAY TUNED.

FOR THE SUN NIGHT-MONDAY LOW...BOTH THE OPERATIONAL 29.12Z GFS AND
ECMWF RUNS HAVE THE LOW CENTER PASSING JUST OUTSIDE THE BENCHMARK
WHICH WOULD MEAN A GLANCING BLOW TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT
STILL A PLOWABLE SNOWFALL TO EASTERN AREAS. HOWEVER, A FEW ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE FURTHER NORTHWEST WITH THE LOW TRACK...SO A MORE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS A POSSIBILITY...AS IS NO IMPACT IF THE LOW
WERE TO TRACK EVEN FURTHER OFF SHORE. THE FIRST RUNS OF THE
OPERATIONAL ECMWF FOR THE BLIZZARD OF 2015 DIDN`T SHOW MAJOR IMPACTS
TO NEW ENGLAND UNTIL 72 HR IN ADVANCE OF THE EVENT. WE ARE STILL
OUTSIDE OF THIS WINDOW...SO LOTS CAN CHANGE.

TUESDAY WILL BE A LULL DAY IF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW IMPACTS NEW
ENGLAND. THEN WE LOOK TO YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL OCEAN STORM MID
WEEK...WITH MODELS CENTERING ON THE WED NIGHT-THU TIMEFRAME. THE
29.12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS LOW...SLAMMING
HEAVY SNOWS OVER THE INTERIOR WITH A SNOW TO RAIN SCENARIO FOR THE
COAST. HOWEVER, THE GFS DOES NOT PHASE THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAMS...SO IS PROGRESSIVE AND SHOWS MINIMAL IMPACTS. SO USED A
MODEL BLEND AND...ONCE AGAIN...TOO EARLY TO BANK ON EITHER A HIT OR
A MISS. CERTAINLY A LOT TO MONITOR CLOSELY IN THE DAYS AHEAD!

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRI NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...CIGS LOWER OVERNIGHT TO MVFR-IFR IN
OCCASIONAL SNOW. THE SNOW MAY MIX OR CHANGE TO RAIN ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE S COAST AND ESPECIALLY THE CAPE/ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND
FRI. SNOW DIMINISHES FRI AFTERNOON IN THE CT VALLEY BUT CONTINUES
ACROSS E NEW ENG. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 25-30 KT AND VFR CIGS DEVELOPING IN THE CT VALLEY BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
TIMING OF SNOW AND LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
TIMING OF SNOW AND LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25-35
KNOTS SATURDAY...HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST. LIGHTER WINDS SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. LOW PRES DEVELOPS S OF THE
REGION...BUT TRACK REMAINS UNCERTAIN. TOO EARLY TO HAVE ANY
CONFIDENCE ON VFR OR IFR THIS PERIOD.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IF LOW IMPACTS THE TERMINALS MONDAY,
CONDITIONS WOULD BE IMPROVING ON TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF LOW PRES
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...BUT WIND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SCA.

FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO W THEN NW DURING FRI
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT DEVELOPING ACROSS RI COASTAL
WATERS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

FRI NIGHT...LOW PRES INTENSIFIES OVER WESTERN GULF OF MAINE WITH
WIDESPREAD NNW GALES. SNOW REDUCES VSBY AS WELL.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH AS LOW PRESSURE
DEPARTS THE AREA.

SUNDAY...EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH BUT REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS...THOUGH SOME GALE GUSTS MAY LINGER ON THE EASTERN OUTER
WATERS EARLY. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE...BUT WILL REMAIN AOA 5 FT
ON THE OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON STRENGTH AND TRACK OF
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE REGION AND THUS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WORSE CONDITIONS WOULD BE MONDAY WITH SLOW
IMPROVEMENT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR CTZ004.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MAZ004-012-013-015>019.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MAZ005>007-014-026.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR RIZ001.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY
     FOR ANZ230>234-251.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-
     237.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254-255.
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...GREGORIA
AVIATION...NOCERA/GREGORIA
MARINE...NOCERA/GREGORIA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291642
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1142 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT WITH A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND INTENSIFYING OVER THE GULF OF MAINE FRI BY FRI
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW LATER TONIGHT AND
FRI...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI NIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE REGION.
BLUSTERY AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
ANOTHER STORM MAY BRING SNOW TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1135 AM UPDATE... WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION...
LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM WINDS IN PLACE EXCEPT ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND
NANTUCKET WHERE NW WINDS AT AROUND 10 MPH. HIGH CLOUDS ALREADY
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND THIS INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER WILL BE THE TREND FOR THE AFTERNOON.

HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES INITIALLY PER CURRENT OBSERVATIONS BUT
THE AFTERNOON HIGHS STILL LOOK GOOD...SO LITTLE CHANGE TO THEM.
MAXES WILL REACH THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER AND MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPDATE AS OF 1135 AM...

HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SOUTHWARD TO INCLUDE
NORFOLK...SUFFOLK...AND MUCH OF PLYMOUTH COUNTIES FOR FRI AND FRI
NIGHT. NEW MODEL INFORMATION SHOWS THAT THE STORM WILL BE
REDEVELOPING SOUTH OF CAPE COD AND INTENSIFYING OVER THE GULF OF
MAINE. FORECAST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...IN THE FORM OF
SNOW...SHOULD REACH 3 TO 4 OR AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF 5 INCHES IN
THESE AREAS BY THE TIME THE SNOW ENDS EARLY SAT MORNING.
TRICKY BECAUSE THE AMOUNTS ARE SPREAD OUT OVER A RELATIVELY LONG
DURATION... BUT GIVEN THE BIG SNOWFALL WE JUST HAD...THE IMPACTS
OF ADDITIONAL SNOW COULD BE IMPORTANT...THUS WENT WITH THE
ADVISORY. WE ARE ALSO WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR AS MUCH AS 8
INCHES IN FAR NORTHEAST MA...MAINLY ESSEX COUNTY... WHICH COULD
REQUIRE A WARNING. WILL ASSESS THIS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
DIGGING SHORTWAVE FROM THE UPPER LAKES WILL MOVE SE AND PHASE
WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY TO FORM A NEG
TILT TROF ALONG THE NEW ENG COAST ON FRI. PRIMARY LOW LIFTS NE
INTO NORTHERN NY TONIGHT WHILE SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE SNE
COAST FRI ASSOCD WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND HEIGHT FALLS
MOVING TO THE COAST. ECMWF IS FURTHEST SOUTH WITH THE SECONDARY
LOW AND AS A RESULT HAS MORE QPF THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THE TRACK
OF THE 700 MB LOW WILL BE CRITICAL TO WHERE HEAVIER SNOWFALL SETS
UP.

DEEPENING MOISTURE AND INCREASING MID LEVEL LIFT WILL RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS SNE LATER TONIGHT INTO FRI.
HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY LOW WILL LIKELY WARM
THE BOUNDARY LAYER ENOUGH FOR A MIX OR CHANGEOVER TO RAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST AND ESPECIALLY
CAPE/ISLANDS.

THE 700 MB LOW TRACKS ACROSS SNE WHICH SUGGESTS HEAVIER SNOW WILL
SET UP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...MAINLY N OF THE MASS PIKE WITH
LIGHTER SNOW TO THE SOUTH. THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY LOOKING AT
2-3 INCHES NORTH OF THE PIKE WITH 1-2 INCHES TO THE
SOUTH...EXCEPT LESS THAN AN INCH NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.

EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN THE CT VALLEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING BY LATE IN THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
MID LEVEL TROF CLOSES OFF JUST SOUTH OF THE SNE COAST AS COASTAL
LOW INTENSIFIES IN THE GULF OF MAINE. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...ECMWF
IS FURTHEST S WITH THE SFC LOW AND THUS IS MOST BULLISH ON BRINING
A PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW...MAINLY TO N/NE MA. WE USED A MULTI
MODEL BLEND OF QPF AS A BASIS FOR SNOW ACCUM. MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WITH A
BAND OF SNOW IN THE COMMA HEAD ROTATING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF
SNE. EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR 2 FOR CENTRAL AND E MA...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS NE MA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THIS AREA FOR THE POTENTIAL OF HIGHER ACCUM PER ECMWF.

WE DECIDED ON A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE
MASS PIKE IN N/NE MA WHERE HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED...FOR THE PERIOD
FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO FRI NIGHT. CURRENT THINKING IS TOTAL
ACCUM THROUGH FRI NIGHT WILL BE 4-6 INCHES N/NE MA WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. LOW PROB THAT WARNING WILL BE NEEDED FOR
NE MA PER ECMWF...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH SO WE OPTED FOR
AN ADVISORY.

TURNING MUCH COLDER FRI NIGHT AS GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP WITH
DEEPENING LOW PRES IN THE GULF OF MAINE. DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND
CHILLS OF 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO IN HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND W
MA...WITH 5 TO 10 BELOW IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR HIGHER TERRAIN IN CENTRAL
AND W MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HEADLINES...

* ARCTIC AIR INVADES NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND ON BLUSTERY NW
  WINDS
* COASTAL STORM POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT LOW
  CONFIDENCE CONTINUES

OVERVIEW...
H5 CUTOFF LOW PRES WILL SPIN OFF THE MAINE COAST SATURDAY...WITH
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW SLOWLY SHIFTING INTO NOVA SCOTIA. UPPER
LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL FLATTEN OUT...ALLOWING WEATHER SYSTEMS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
LONG TERM. NOTING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THIS FAST FLOW DIGGING
INTO THE MID ATLC STATES...WHICH WILL TRIGGER ANOTHER LOW
DEVELOPING S OF THE REGION. MANY QUESTIONS REMAIN ON THE TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF THIS LOW AS IT PASSES NEAR OR S OF THE
REGION...WHICH WILL DETERMINE ITS EFFECTS. MODEL SOLUTION SPREAD
IS HIGH...SO LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT. ONE CERTAINTY IS THE
FRIGID TEMPERATURES WINDS AND BLUSTERY WINDS AT TIMES INTO
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NE INTO NOVA
SCOTIA SATURDAY. THIS WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON.
NW WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL
DIMINISH AS HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS. ANOTHER DRY FRONT WILL SHIFT
SE SUNDAY...JUST REINFORCING THE ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGH TEMPS BOTH DAYS WILL RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. THE HIGH ON SAT AT KBDL MAY BE CLOSE TO THE RECORD LOW
MAX TEMP /RECORD IS 15 DEGREES SET IN 1951/.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...ANOTHER H5 SHORT WAVE WILL DIG TO THE MID
ATLC COAST IN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. BIG QUESTIONS REMAIN...WHERE
WILL THE SURFACE SYSTEM DEVELOP...HOW STRONG WILL IT BE AND HOW
FAR N WILL IT TRACK. LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO WIDE MODEL SOLUTION
SPREAD. ONE THING NOT IN QUESTION...PRECIP WILL MOST LIKELY BE IN
THE FORM OF SNOW...BUT HOW MUCH. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE NEXT FEW
MODEL RUNS TO DETERMINE THAT.

AT THIS POINT...HAVE MENTIONED CHANCE POPS FOR MOST AREAS WITH
THE BEST CHANCE ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS. UPPER
PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE...THOUGH...SO THE LOW SHOULD DEPART
LATE MON OR MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...
MORE ARCTIC COLD ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRES BUILDS E. LOOKS LIKE THE LOW WILL SHIFT E ON WED...WHICH
MEANS TEMPS MAY START TO REBOUND BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. YET ANOTHER LOW MAY APPROACH WED NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF PRECIP...THOUGH TIMING AND TRACK FOR THIS LOW IS ALSO
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE FROM W-E.THIS
LIGHT WINDS.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...CIGS LOWER OVERNIGHT TO MVFR-IFR IN
OCCASIONAL SNOW. THE SNOW MAY MIX OR CHANGE TO RAIN ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE S COAST AND ESPECIALLY THE CAPE/ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND
FRI. SNOW DIMINISHES FRI AFTERNOON IN THE CT VALLEY BUT CONTINUES
ACROSS E NEW ENG. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 25-30 KT AND VFR CIGS DEVELOPING IN THE CT VALLEY BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING
OF SNOW AND LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING
OF SNOW AND LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR WEST. POSSIBLE IFR TO START
FOR EASTERN LOCALES...BUT WITH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25-35
KNOTS SATURDAY...HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST. LIGHTER WINDS SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. LOW PRES DEVELOPS S OF THE
REGION...BUT TRACK REMAINS UNCERTAIN. TOO EARLY TO HAVE ANY
CONFIDENCE ON VFR OR IFR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

1135 AM UPDATE...HAVE UPGRADED THE GALE WATCH TO GALE WARNINGS FOR
LATE FRI INTO SAT AND HAVE INCLUDED BOSTON HARBOR.

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WATERS WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND SEAS BELOW SCA.

TONIGHT...INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF LOW PRES
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...BUT WIND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA.

FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO W THEN NW DURING FRI
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT DEVELOPING ACROSS RI COASTAL
WATERS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FRI-
SAT...LOW CONFIDENCE SUN-MON.

FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW PRES WILL CROSS THE WATERS. REDUCED VSBYS IN
SNOW MAINLY IN THE EASTERN WATERS EARLY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NW
AND INCREASE. GUSTS UP TO GALE FORCE EXPECTED. GALE WATCHES HAVE
BEEN UPGRADED TO GALE WARNINGS FOR ALL WATERS AND NOW INCLUDES
BOSTON HARBOR. FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY.

SATURDAY...NW GALES EXPECTED. FREEZING SPRAY DEVELOPING. HIGH
SEAS FORECAST...10-12 FT OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH SAT NIGHT WITH A CORRESPONDING LOWERING OF SEAS.

SUNDAY...EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH BUT REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS...THOUGH SOME GALE GUSTS MAY LINGER ON THE EASTERN OUTER
WATERS EARLY. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE...BUT WILL REMAIN AOA 5 FT
ON THE OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...DEPENDING UPON STRENGTH AND TRACK OF
DEVELOPING LOW PRES S OF THE REGION...COULD SEE WIND GUSTS UP TO
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SEAS WILL REMAIN AOA 5 FT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MAZ004>007-013>016-018-019-026.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY
     FOR ANZ230>234-251.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-
     237.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254-255.
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...GAF
SHORT TERM...KJC/GAF
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT/GAF
MARINE...KJC/EVT/GAF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291642
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1142 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT WITH A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND INTENSIFYING OVER THE GULF OF MAINE FRI BY FRI
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW LATER TONIGHT AND
FRI...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI NIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE REGION.
BLUSTERY AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
ANOTHER STORM MAY BRING SNOW TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1135 AM UPDATE... WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION...
LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM WINDS IN PLACE EXCEPT ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND
NANTUCKET WHERE NW WINDS AT AROUND 10 MPH. HIGH CLOUDS ALREADY
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND THIS INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER WILL BE THE TREND FOR THE AFTERNOON.

HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES INITIALLY PER CURRENT OBSERVATIONS BUT
THE AFTERNOON HIGHS STILL LOOK GOOD...SO LITTLE CHANGE TO THEM.
MAXES WILL REACH THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER AND MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPDATE AS OF 1135 AM...

HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SOUTHWARD TO INCLUDE
NORFOLK...SUFFOLK...AND MUCH OF PLYMOUTH COUNTIES FOR FRI AND FRI
NIGHT. NEW MODEL INFORMATION SHOWS THAT THE STORM WILL BE
REDEVELOPING SOUTH OF CAPE COD AND INTENSIFYING OVER THE GULF OF
MAINE. FORECAST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...IN THE FORM OF
SNOW...SHOULD REACH 3 TO 4 OR AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF 5 INCHES IN
THESE AREAS BY THE TIME THE SNOW ENDS EARLY SAT MORNING.
TRICKY BECAUSE THE AMOUNTS ARE SPREAD OUT OVER A RELATIVELY LONG
DURATION... BUT GIVEN THE BIG SNOWFALL WE JUST HAD...THE IMPACTS
OF ADDITIONAL SNOW COULD BE IMPORTANT...THUS WENT WITH THE
ADVISORY. WE ARE ALSO WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR AS MUCH AS 8
INCHES IN FAR NORTHEAST MA...MAINLY ESSEX COUNTY... WHICH COULD
REQUIRE A WARNING. WILL ASSESS THIS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
DIGGING SHORTWAVE FROM THE UPPER LAKES WILL MOVE SE AND PHASE
WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY TO FORM A NEG
TILT TROF ALONG THE NEW ENG COAST ON FRI. PRIMARY LOW LIFTS NE
INTO NORTHERN NY TONIGHT WHILE SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE SNE
COAST FRI ASSOCD WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND HEIGHT FALLS
MOVING TO THE COAST. ECMWF IS FURTHEST SOUTH WITH THE SECONDARY
LOW AND AS A RESULT HAS MORE QPF THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THE TRACK
OF THE 700 MB LOW WILL BE CRITICAL TO WHERE HEAVIER SNOWFALL SETS
UP.

DEEPENING MOISTURE AND INCREASING MID LEVEL LIFT WILL RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS SNE LATER TONIGHT INTO FRI.
HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY LOW WILL LIKELY WARM
THE BOUNDARY LAYER ENOUGH FOR A MIX OR CHANGEOVER TO RAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST AND ESPECIALLY
CAPE/ISLANDS.

THE 700 MB LOW TRACKS ACROSS SNE WHICH SUGGESTS HEAVIER SNOW WILL
SET UP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...MAINLY N OF THE MASS PIKE WITH
LIGHTER SNOW TO THE SOUTH. THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY LOOKING AT
2-3 INCHES NORTH OF THE PIKE WITH 1-2 INCHES TO THE
SOUTH...EXCEPT LESS THAN AN INCH NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.

EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN THE CT VALLEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING BY LATE IN THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
MID LEVEL TROF CLOSES OFF JUST SOUTH OF THE SNE COAST AS COASTAL
LOW INTENSIFIES IN THE GULF OF MAINE. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...ECMWF
IS FURTHEST S WITH THE SFC LOW AND THUS IS MOST BULLISH ON BRINING
A PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW...MAINLY TO N/NE MA. WE USED A MULTI
MODEL BLEND OF QPF AS A BASIS FOR SNOW ACCUM. MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WITH A
BAND OF SNOW IN THE COMMA HEAD ROTATING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF
SNE. EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR 2 FOR CENTRAL AND E MA...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS NE MA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THIS AREA FOR THE POTENTIAL OF HIGHER ACCUM PER ECMWF.

WE DECIDED ON A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE
MASS PIKE IN N/NE MA WHERE HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED...FOR THE PERIOD
FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO FRI NIGHT. CURRENT THINKING IS TOTAL
ACCUM THROUGH FRI NIGHT WILL BE 4-6 INCHES N/NE MA WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. LOW PROB THAT WARNING WILL BE NEEDED FOR
NE MA PER ECMWF...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH SO WE OPTED FOR
AN ADVISORY.

TURNING MUCH COLDER FRI NIGHT AS GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP WITH
DEEPENING LOW PRES IN THE GULF OF MAINE. DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND
CHILLS OF 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO IN HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND W
MA...WITH 5 TO 10 BELOW IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR HIGHER TERRAIN IN CENTRAL
AND W MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HEADLINES...

* ARCTIC AIR INVADES NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND ON BLUSTERY NW
  WINDS
* COASTAL STORM POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT LOW
  CONFIDENCE CONTINUES

OVERVIEW...
H5 CUTOFF LOW PRES WILL SPIN OFF THE MAINE COAST SATURDAY...WITH
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW SLOWLY SHIFTING INTO NOVA SCOTIA. UPPER
LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL FLATTEN OUT...ALLOWING WEATHER SYSTEMS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
LONG TERM. NOTING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THIS FAST FLOW DIGGING
INTO THE MID ATLC STATES...WHICH WILL TRIGGER ANOTHER LOW
DEVELOPING S OF THE REGION. MANY QUESTIONS REMAIN ON THE TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF THIS LOW AS IT PASSES NEAR OR S OF THE
REGION...WHICH WILL DETERMINE ITS EFFECTS. MODEL SOLUTION SPREAD
IS HIGH...SO LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT. ONE CERTAINTY IS THE
FRIGID TEMPERATURES WINDS AND BLUSTERY WINDS AT TIMES INTO
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NE INTO NOVA
SCOTIA SATURDAY. THIS WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON.
NW WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL
DIMINISH AS HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS. ANOTHER DRY FRONT WILL SHIFT
SE SUNDAY...JUST REINFORCING THE ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGH TEMPS BOTH DAYS WILL RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. THE HIGH ON SAT AT KBDL MAY BE CLOSE TO THE RECORD LOW
MAX TEMP /RECORD IS 15 DEGREES SET IN 1951/.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...ANOTHER H5 SHORT WAVE WILL DIG TO THE MID
ATLC COAST IN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. BIG QUESTIONS REMAIN...WHERE
WILL THE SURFACE SYSTEM DEVELOP...HOW STRONG WILL IT BE AND HOW
FAR N WILL IT TRACK. LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO WIDE MODEL SOLUTION
SPREAD. ONE THING NOT IN QUESTION...PRECIP WILL MOST LIKELY BE IN
THE FORM OF SNOW...BUT HOW MUCH. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE NEXT FEW
MODEL RUNS TO DETERMINE THAT.

AT THIS POINT...HAVE MENTIONED CHANCE POPS FOR MOST AREAS WITH
THE BEST CHANCE ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS. UPPER
PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE...THOUGH...SO THE LOW SHOULD DEPART
LATE MON OR MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...
MORE ARCTIC COLD ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRES BUILDS E. LOOKS LIKE THE LOW WILL SHIFT E ON WED...WHICH
MEANS TEMPS MAY START TO REBOUND BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. YET ANOTHER LOW MAY APPROACH WED NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF PRECIP...THOUGH TIMING AND TRACK FOR THIS LOW IS ALSO
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE FROM W-E.THIS
LIGHT WINDS.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...CIGS LOWER OVERNIGHT TO MVFR-IFR IN
OCCASIONAL SNOW. THE SNOW MAY MIX OR CHANGE TO RAIN ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE S COAST AND ESPECIALLY THE CAPE/ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND
FRI. SNOW DIMINISHES FRI AFTERNOON IN THE CT VALLEY BUT CONTINUES
ACROSS E NEW ENG. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 25-30 KT AND VFR CIGS DEVELOPING IN THE CT VALLEY BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING
OF SNOW AND LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING
OF SNOW AND LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR WEST. POSSIBLE IFR TO START
FOR EASTERN LOCALES...BUT WITH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25-35
KNOTS SATURDAY...HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST. LIGHTER WINDS SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. LOW PRES DEVELOPS S OF THE
REGION...BUT TRACK REMAINS UNCERTAIN. TOO EARLY TO HAVE ANY
CONFIDENCE ON VFR OR IFR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

1135 AM UPDATE...HAVE UPGRADED THE GALE WATCH TO GALE WARNINGS FOR
LATE FRI INTO SAT AND HAVE INCLUDED BOSTON HARBOR.

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WATERS WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND SEAS BELOW SCA.

TONIGHT...INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF LOW PRES
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...BUT WIND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA.

FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO W THEN NW DURING FRI
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT DEVELOPING ACROSS RI COASTAL
WATERS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FRI-
SAT...LOW CONFIDENCE SUN-MON.

FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW PRES WILL CROSS THE WATERS. REDUCED VSBYS IN
SNOW MAINLY IN THE EASTERN WATERS EARLY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NW
AND INCREASE. GUSTS UP TO GALE FORCE EXPECTED. GALE WATCHES HAVE
BEEN UPGRADED TO GALE WARNINGS FOR ALL WATERS AND NOW INCLUDES
BOSTON HARBOR. FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY.

SATURDAY...NW GALES EXPECTED. FREEZING SPRAY DEVELOPING. HIGH
SEAS FORECAST...10-12 FT OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH SAT NIGHT WITH A CORRESPONDING LOWERING OF SEAS.

SUNDAY...EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH BUT REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS...THOUGH SOME GALE GUSTS MAY LINGER ON THE EASTERN OUTER
WATERS EARLY. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE...BUT WILL REMAIN AOA 5 FT
ON THE OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...DEPENDING UPON STRENGTH AND TRACK OF
DEVELOPING LOW PRES S OF THE REGION...COULD SEE WIND GUSTS UP TO
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SEAS WILL REMAIN AOA 5 FT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MAZ004>007-013>016-018-019-026.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY
     FOR ANZ230>234-251.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-
     237.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254-255.
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...GAF
SHORT TERM...KJC/GAF
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT/GAF
MARINE...KJC/EVT/GAF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 291639
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1139 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT WITH A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND INTENSIFYING OVER THE GULF OF MAINE FRI BY FRI
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW LATER TONIGHT AND
FRI...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI NIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE REGION.
BLUSTERY AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
ANOTHER STORM MAY BRING SNOW TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1135 AM UPDATE... WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION...
LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM WINDS IN PLACE EXCEPT ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND
NANTUCKET WHERE NW WINDS AT AROUND 10 MPH. HIGH CLOUDS ALREADY
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND THIS INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER WILL BE THE TREND FOR THE AFTERNOON.

HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES INITIALLY PER CURRENT OBSERVATIONS BUT
THE AFTERNOON HIGHS STILL LOOK GOOD...SO LITTLE CHANGE TO THEM.
MAXES WILL REACH THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER AND MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPDATE AS OF 1135 AM...

HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SOUTHWARD TO INCLUDE
NORFOLK...SUFFOLK...AND MUCH OF PLYMOUTH COUNTIES FOR FRI AND FRI
NIGHT. NEW MODEL INFORMATION SHOWS THAT THE STORM WILL BE
REDEVELOPING SOUTH OF CAPE COD AND INTENSIFYING OVER THE GULF OF
MAINE. FORECAST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...IN THE FORM OF
SNOW...SHOULD REACH 3 TO 4 OR AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF 5 INCHES IN
THESE AREAS BY THE TIME THE SNOW ENDS EARLY SAT MORNING.
TRICKY BECAUSE THE AMOUNTS ARE SPREAD OUT OVER A RELATIVELY LONG
DURATION... BUT GIVEN THE BIG SNOWFALL WE JUST HAD...THE IMPACTS
OF ADDITIONAL SNOW COULD BE IMPORTANT...THUS WENT WITH THE
ADVISORY. WE ARE ALSO WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR AS MUCH AS 8
INCHES IN FAR NORTHEAST MA...MAINLY ESSEX COUNTY... WHICH COULD
REQUIRE A WARNING. WILL ASSESS THIS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
DIGGING SHORTWAVE FROM THE UPPER LAKES WILL MOVE SE AND PHASE
WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY TO FORM A NEG
TILT TROF ALONG THE NEW ENG COAST ON FRI. PRIMARY LOW LIFTS NE
INTO NORTHERN NY TONIGHT WHILE SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE SNE
COAST FRI ASSOCD WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND HEIGHT FALLS
MOVING TO THE COAST. ECMWF IS FURTHEST SOUTH WITH THE SECONDARY
LOW AND AS A RESULT HAS MORE QPF THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THE TRACK
OF THE 700 MB LOW WILL BE CRITICAL TO WHERE HEAVIER SNOWFALL SETS
UP.

DEEPENING MOISTURE AND INCREASING MID LEVEL LIFT WILL RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS SNE LATER TONIGHT INTO FRI.
HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY LOW WILL LIKELY WARM
THE BOUNDARY LAYER ENOUGH FOR A MIX OR CHANGEOVER TO RAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST AND ESPECIALLY
CAPE/ISLANDS.

THE 700 MB LOW TRACKS ACROSS SNE WHICH SUGGESTS HEAVIER SNOW WILL
SET UP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...MAINLY N OF THE MASS PIKE WITH
LIGHTER SNOW TO THE SOUTH. THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY LOOKING AT
2-3 INCHES NORTH OF THE PIKE WITH 1-2 INCHES TO THE
SOUTH...EXCEPT LESS THAN AN INCH NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.

EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN THE CT VALLEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING BY LATE IN THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
MID LEVEL TROF CLOSES OFF JUST SOUTH OF THE SNE COAST AS COASTAL
LOW INTENSIFIES IN THE GULF OF MAINE. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...ECMWF
IS FURTHEST S WITH THE SFC LOW AND THUS IS MOST BULLISH ON BRINING
A PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW...MAINLY TO N/NE MA. WE USED A MULTI
MODEL BLEND OF QPF AS A BASIS FOR SNOW ACCUM. MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WITH A
BAND OF SNOW IN THE COMMA HEAD ROTATING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF
SNE. EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR 2 FOR CENTRAL AND E MA...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS NE MA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THIS AREA FOR THE POTENTIAL OF HIGHER ACCUM PER ECMWF.

WE DECIDED ON A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE
MASS PIKE IN N/NE MA WHERE HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED...FOR THE PERIOD
FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO FRI NIGHT. CURRENT THINKING IS TOTAL
ACCUM THROUGH FRI NIGHT WILL BE 4-6 INCHES N/NE MA WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. LOW PROB THAT WARNING WILL BE NEEDED FOR
NE MA PER ECMWF...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH SO WE OPTED FOR
AN ADVISORY.

TURNING MUCH COLDER FRI NIGHT AS GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP WITH
DEEPENING LOW PRES IN THE GULF OF MAINE. DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND
CHILLS OF 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO IN HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND W
MA...WITH 5 TO 10 BELOW IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR HIGHER TERRAIN IN CENTRAL
AND W MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HEADLINES...

* ARCTIC AIR INVADES NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND ON BLUSTERY NW
  WINDS
* COASTAL STORM POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT LOW
  CONFIDENCE CONTINUES

OVERVIEW...
H5 CUTOFF LOW PRES WILL SPIN OFF THE MAINE COAST SATURDAY...WITH
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW SLOWLY SHIFTING INTO NOVA SCOTIA. UPPER
LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL FLATTEN OUT...ALLOWING WEATHER SYSTEMS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
LONG TERM. NOTING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THIS FAST FLOW DIGGING
INTO THE MID ATLC STATES...WHICH WILL TRIGGER ANOTHER LOW
DEVELOPING S OF THE REGION. MANY QUESTIONS REMAIN ON THE TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF THIS LOW AS IT PASSES NEAR OR S OF THE
REGION...WHICH WILL DETERMINE ITS EFFECTS. MODEL SOLUTION SPREAD
IS HIGH...SO LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT. ONE CERTAINTY IS THE
FRIGID TEMPERATURES WINDS AND BLUSTERY WINDS AT TIMES INTO
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NE INTO NOVA
SCOTIA SATURDAY. THIS WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON.
NW WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL
DIMINISH AS HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS. ANOTHER DRY FRONT WILL SHIFT
SE SUNDAY...JUST REINFORCING THE ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGH TEMPS BOTH DAYS WILL RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. THE HIGH ON SAT AT KBDL MAY BE CLOSE TO THE RECORD LOW
MAX TEMP /RECORD IS 15 DEGREES SET IN 1951/.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...ANOTHER H5 SHORT WAVE WILL DIG TO THE MID
ATLC COAST IN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. BIG QUESTIONS REMAIN...WHERE
WILL THE SURFACE SYSTEM DEVELOP...HOW STRONG WILL IT BE AND HOW
FAR N WILL IT TRACK. LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO WIDE MODEL SOLUTION
SPREAD. ONE THING NOT IN QUESTION...PRECIP WILL MOST LIKELY BE IN
THE FORM OF SNOW...BUT HOW MUCH. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE NEXT FEW
MODEL RUNS TO DETERMINE THAT.

AT THIS POINT...HAVE MENTIONED CHANCE POPS FOR MOST AREAS WITH
THE BEST CHANCE ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS. UPPER
PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE...THOUGH...SO THE LOW SHOULD DEPART
LATE MON OR MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...
MORE ARCTIC COLD ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRES BUILDS E. LOOKS LIKE THE LOW WILL SHIFT E ON WED...WHICH
MEANS TEMPS MAY START TO REBOUND BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. YET ANOTHER LOW MAY APPROACH WED NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF PRECIP...THOUGH TIMING AND TRACK FOR THIS LOW IS ALSO
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE FROM W-E.THIS
LIGHT WINDS.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...CIGS LOWER OVERNIGHT TO MVFR-IFR IN
OCCASIONAL SNOW. THE SNOW MAY MIX OR CHANGE TO RAIN ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE S COAST AND ESPECIALLY THE CAPE/ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND
FRI. SNOW DIMINISHES FRI AFTERNOON IN THE CT VALLEY BUT CONTINUES
ACROSS E NEW ENG. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 25-30 KT AND VFR CIGS DEVELOPING IN THE CT VALLEY BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING
OF SNOW AND LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING
OF SNOW AND LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR WEST. POSSIBLE IFR TO START
FOR EASTERN LOCALES...BUT WITH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25-35
KNOTS SATURDAY...HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST. LIGHTER WINDS SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. LOW PRES DEVELOPS S OF THE
REGION...BUT TRACK REMAINS UNCERTAIN. TOO EARLY TO HAVE ANY
CONFIDENCE ON VFR OR IFR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

1135 AM UPDATE...HAVE UPGRADED THE GALE WATCH TO GALE WARNINGS FOR
LATE FRI INTO SAT AND HAVE INCLUDED BOSTON HARBOR.

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WATERS WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND SEAS BELOW SCA.

TONIGHT...INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF LOW PRES
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...BUT WIND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA.

FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO W THEN NW DURING FRI
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT DEVELOPING ACROSS RI COASTAL
WATERS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FRI-
SAT...LOW CONFIDENCE SUN-MON.

FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW PRES WILL CROSS THE WATERS. REDUCED VSBYS IN
SNOW MAINLY IN THE EASTERN WATERS EARLY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NW
AND INCREASE. GUSTS UP TO GALE FORCE EXPECTED. GALE WATCHES HAVE
BEEN UPGRADED TO GALE WARNINGS FOR ALL WATERS AND NOW INCLUDES
BOSTON HARBOR. FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY.

SATURDAY...NW GALES EXPECTED. FREEZING SPRAY DEVELOPING. HIGH
SEAS FORECAST...10-12 FT OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH SAT NIGHT WITH A CORRESPONDING LOWERING OF SEAS.

SUNDAY...EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH BUT REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS...THOUGH SOME GALE GUSTS MAY LINGER ON THE EASTERN OUTER
WATERS EARLY. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE...BUT WILL REMAIN AOA 5 FT
ON THE OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...DEPENDING UPON STRENGTH AND TRACK OF
DEVELOPING LOW PRES S OF THE REGION...COULD SEE WIND GUSTS UP TO
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SEAS WILL REMAIN AOA 5 FT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MAZ004>007-014-026.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ANZ231>234-251.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ235-237.
     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ250-254-255.
     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...GAF
SHORT TERM...KJC/GAF
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT/GAF
MARINE...KJC/EVT/GAF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 291639
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1139 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT WITH A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND INTENSIFYING OVER THE GULF OF MAINE FRI BY FRI
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW LATER TONIGHT AND
FRI...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI NIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE REGION.
BLUSTERY AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
ANOTHER STORM MAY BRING SNOW TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1135 AM UPDATE... WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION...
LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM WINDS IN PLACE EXCEPT ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND
NANTUCKET WHERE NW WINDS AT AROUND 10 MPH. HIGH CLOUDS ALREADY
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND THIS INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER WILL BE THE TREND FOR THE AFTERNOON.

HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES INITIALLY PER CURRENT OBSERVATIONS BUT
THE AFTERNOON HIGHS STILL LOOK GOOD...SO LITTLE CHANGE TO THEM.
MAXES WILL REACH THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER AND MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPDATE AS OF 1135 AM...

HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SOUTHWARD TO INCLUDE
NORFOLK...SUFFOLK...AND MUCH OF PLYMOUTH COUNTIES FOR FRI AND FRI
NIGHT. NEW MODEL INFORMATION SHOWS THAT THE STORM WILL BE
REDEVELOPING SOUTH OF CAPE COD AND INTENSIFYING OVER THE GULF OF
MAINE. FORECAST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...IN THE FORM OF
SNOW...SHOULD REACH 3 TO 4 OR AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF 5 INCHES IN
THESE AREAS BY THE TIME THE SNOW ENDS EARLY SAT MORNING.
TRICKY BECAUSE THE AMOUNTS ARE SPREAD OUT OVER A RELATIVELY LONG
DURATION... BUT GIVEN THE BIG SNOWFALL WE JUST HAD...THE IMPACTS
OF ADDITIONAL SNOW COULD BE IMPORTANT...THUS WENT WITH THE
ADVISORY. WE ARE ALSO WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR AS MUCH AS 8
INCHES IN FAR NORTHEAST MA...MAINLY ESSEX COUNTY... WHICH COULD
REQUIRE A WARNING. WILL ASSESS THIS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
DIGGING SHORTWAVE FROM THE UPPER LAKES WILL MOVE SE AND PHASE
WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY TO FORM A NEG
TILT TROF ALONG THE NEW ENG COAST ON FRI. PRIMARY LOW LIFTS NE
INTO NORTHERN NY TONIGHT WHILE SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE SNE
COAST FRI ASSOCD WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND HEIGHT FALLS
MOVING TO THE COAST. ECMWF IS FURTHEST SOUTH WITH THE SECONDARY
LOW AND AS A RESULT HAS MORE QPF THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THE TRACK
OF THE 700 MB LOW WILL BE CRITICAL TO WHERE HEAVIER SNOWFALL SETS
UP.

DEEPENING MOISTURE AND INCREASING MID LEVEL LIFT WILL RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS SNE LATER TONIGHT INTO FRI.
HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY LOW WILL LIKELY WARM
THE BOUNDARY LAYER ENOUGH FOR A MIX OR CHANGEOVER TO RAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST AND ESPECIALLY
CAPE/ISLANDS.

THE 700 MB LOW TRACKS ACROSS SNE WHICH SUGGESTS HEAVIER SNOW WILL
SET UP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...MAINLY N OF THE MASS PIKE WITH
LIGHTER SNOW TO THE SOUTH. THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY LOOKING AT
2-3 INCHES NORTH OF THE PIKE WITH 1-2 INCHES TO THE
SOUTH...EXCEPT LESS THAN AN INCH NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.

EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN THE CT VALLEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING BY LATE IN THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
MID LEVEL TROF CLOSES OFF JUST SOUTH OF THE SNE COAST AS COASTAL
LOW INTENSIFIES IN THE GULF OF MAINE. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...ECMWF
IS FURTHEST S WITH THE SFC LOW AND THUS IS MOST BULLISH ON BRINING
A PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW...MAINLY TO N/NE MA. WE USED A MULTI
MODEL BLEND OF QPF AS A BASIS FOR SNOW ACCUM. MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WITH A
BAND OF SNOW IN THE COMMA HEAD ROTATING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF
SNE. EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR 2 FOR CENTRAL AND E MA...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS NE MA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THIS AREA FOR THE POTENTIAL OF HIGHER ACCUM PER ECMWF.

WE DECIDED ON A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE
MASS PIKE IN N/NE MA WHERE HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED...FOR THE PERIOD
FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO FRI NIGHT. CURRENT THINKING IS TOTAL
ACCUM THROUGH FRI NIGHT WILL BE 4-6 INCHES N/NE MA WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. LOW PROB THAT WARNING WILL BE NEEDED FOR
NE MA PER ECMWF...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH SO WE OPTED FOR
AN ADVISORY.

TURNING MUCH COLDER FRI NIGHT AS GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP WITH
DEEPENING LOW PRES IN THE GULF OF MAINE. DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND
CHILLS OF 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO IN HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND W
MA...WITH 5 TO 10 BELOW IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR HIGHER TERRAIN IN CENTRAL
AND W MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HEADLINES...

* ARCTIC AIR INVADES NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND ON BLUSTERY NW
  WINDS
* COASTAL STORM POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT LOW
  CONFIDENCE CONTINUES

OVERVIEW...
H5 CUTOFF LOW PRES WILL SPIN OFF THE MAINE COAST SATURDAY...WITH
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW SLOWLY SHIFTING INTO NOVA SCOTIA. UPPER
LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL FLATTEN OUT...ALLOWING WEATHER SYSTEMS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
LONG TERM. NOTING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THIS FAST FLOW DIGGING
INTO THE MID ATLC STATES...WHICH WILL TRIGGER ANOTHER LOW
DEVELOPING S OF THE REGION. MANY QUESTIONS REMAIN ON THE TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF THIS LOW AS IT PASSES NEAR OR S OF THE
REGION...WHICH WILL DETERMINE ITS EFFECTS. MODEL SOLUTION SPREAD
IS HIGH...SO LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT. ONE CERTAINTY IS THE
FRIGID TEMPERATURES WINDS AND BLUSTERY WINDS AT TIMES INTO
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NE INTO NOVA
SCOTIA SATURDAY. THIS WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON.
NW WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL
DIMINISH AS HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS. ANOTHER DRY FRONT WILL SHIFT
SE SUNDAY...JUST REINFORCING THE ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGH TEMPS BOTH DAYS WILL RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. THE HIGH ON SAT AT KBDL MAY BE CLOSE TO THE RECORD LOW
MAX TEMP /RECORD IS 15 DEGREES SET IN 1951/.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...ANOTHER H5 SHORT WAVE WILL DIG TO THE MID
ATLC COAST IN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. BIG QUESTIONS REMAIN...WHERE
WILL THE SURFACE SYSTEM DEVELOP...HOW STRONG WILL IT BE AND HOW
FAR N WILL IT TRACK. LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO WIDE MODEL SOLUTION
SPREAD. ONE THING NOT IN QUESTION...PRECIP WILL MOST LIKELY BE IN
THE FORM OF SNOW...BUT HOW MUCH. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE NEXT FEW
MODEL RUNS TO DETERMINE THAT.

AT THIS POINT...HAVE MENTIONED CHANCE POPS FOR MOST AREAS WITH
THE BEST CHANCE ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS. UPPER
PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE...THOUGH...SO THE LOW SHOULD DEPART
LATE MON OR MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...
MORE ARCTIC COLD ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRES BUILDS E. LOOKS LIKE THE LOW WILL SHIFT E ON WED...WHICH
MEANS TEMPS MAY START TO REBOUND BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. YET ANOTHER LOW MAY APPROACH WED NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF PRECIP...THOUGH TIMING AND TRACK FOR THIS LOW IS ALSO
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE FROM W-E.THIS
LIGHT WINDS.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...CIGS LOWER OVERNIGHT TO MVFR-IFR IN
OCCASIONAL SNOW. THE SNOW MAY MIX OR CHANGE TO RAIN ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE S COAST AND ESPECIALLY THE CAPE/ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND
FRI. SNOW DIMINISHES FRI AFTERNOON IN THE CT VALLEY BUT CONTINUES
ACROSS E NEW ENG. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 25-30 KT AND VFR CIGS DEVELOPING IN THE CT VALLEY BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING
OF SNOW AND LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING
OF SNOW AND LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR WEST. POSSIBLE IFR TO START
FOR EASTERN LOCALES...BUT WITH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25-35
KNOTS SATURDAY...HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST. LIGHTER WINDS SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. LOW PRES DEVELOPS S OF THE
REGION...BUT TRACK REMAINS UNCERTAIN. TOO EARLY TO HAVE ANY
CONFIDENCE ON VFR OR IFR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

1135 AM UPDATE...HAVE UPGRADED THE GALE WATCH TO GALE WARNINGS FOR
LATE FRI INTO SAT AND HAVE INCLUDED BOSTON HARBOR.

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WATERS WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND SEAS BELOW SCA.

TONIGHT...INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF LOW PRES
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...BUT WIND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA.

FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO W THEN NW DURING FRI
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT DEVELOPING ACROSS RI COASTAL
WATERS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FRI-
SAT...LOW CONFIDENCE SUN-MON.

FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW PRES WILL CROSS THE WATERS. REDUCED VSBYS IN
SNOW MAINLY IN THE EASTERN WATERS EARLY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NW
AND INCREASE. GUSTS UP TO GALE FORCE EXPECTED. GALE WATCHES HAVE
BEEN UPGRADED TO GALE WARNINGS FOR ALL WATERS AND NOW INCLUDES
BOSTON HARBOR. FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY.

SATURDAY...NW GALES EXPECTED. FREEZING SPRAY DEVELOPING. HIGH
SEAS FORECAST...10-12 FT OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH SAT NIGHT WITH A CORRESPONDING LOWERING OF SEAS.

SUNDAY...EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH BUT REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS...THOUGH SOME GALE GUSTS MAY LINGER ON THE EASTERN OUTER
WATERS EARLY. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE...BUT WILL REMAIN AOA 5 FT
ON THE OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...DEPENDING UPON STRENGTH AND TRACK OF
DEVELOPING LOW PRES S OF THE REGION...COULD SEE WIND GUSTS UP TO
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SEAS WILL REMAIN AOA 5 FT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MAZ004>007-014-026.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ANZ231>234-251.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ235-237.
     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ250-254-255.
     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...GAF
SHORT TERM...KJC/GAF
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT/GAF
MARINE...KJC/EVT/GAF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291225
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
725 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT WITH A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND MOVING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE FRI INTO FRI
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW LATER TONIGHT AND
FRI...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI NIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE REGION.
BLUSTERY AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
ANOTHER STORM MAY BRING SNOW TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
715 AM UPDATE...
LAST OF OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET
EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE SHIFTED OFFSHORE AS SEEN ON LATEST NE
REGIONAL IR SATELLITE. WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION...
LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM WINDS IN PLACE EXCEPT ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND
NANTUCKET WHERE N WINDS AT AROUND 10 MPH. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND
NEW DEEP SNOW PACK...TEMPS HAVE PLUMMETED EARLY THIS MORNING.
TEMP DOWN TO -12 AT KOWD AND -11 AT KCEF AT 12Z...WHILE THE
WARMEST INLAND SPOT IS KORH /1000 FT ELEVATION/ AT 19...TRUE
INVERSION IN PLACE.

NOTED A FEW HIGH CLOUD STREAMERS APPROACHING THE REGION ON
SATELLITE...BUT MORE APPRECIABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SEEN ACROSS W
NY/PA. THESE WILL MOVE TOWARD WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY AROUND MIDDAY
OR EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN PUSH E THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
WITH FAST UPPER LEVEL WINDS IN PLACE.

HAVE UPDATED NEAR TERM FORECAST TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER NEW ENG TODAY...THEN MOVES TO THE EAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY W NEW ENG AS HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVES IN AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. WITH LIGHT
WINDS...EXPECT A NICE RECOVERY IN TEMPS AFTER VERY COLD START.
MAXES WILL REACH THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER AND MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
DIGGING SHORTWAVE FROM THE UPPER LAKES WILL MOVE SE AND PHASE
WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY TO FORM A NEG
TILT TROF ALONG THE NEW ENG COAST ON FRI. PRIMARY LOW LIFTS NE
INTO NORTHERN NY TONIGHT WHILE SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE SNE
COAST FRI ASSOCD WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND HEIGHT FALLS
MOVING TO THE COAST. ECMWF IS FURTHEST SOUTH WITH THE SECONDARY
LOW AND AS A RESULT HAS MORE QPF THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THE TRACK
OF THE 700 MB LOW WILL BE CRITICAL TO WHERE HEAVIER SNOWFALL SETS
UP.

DEEPENING MOISTURE AND INCREASING MID LEVEL LIFT WILL RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS SNE LATER TONIGHT INTO FRI.
HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY LOW WILL LIKELY WARM
THE BOUNDARY LAYER ENOUGH FOR A MIX OR CHANGEOVER TO RAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST AND ESPECIALLY
CAPE/ISLANDS.

THE 700 MB LOW TRACKS ACROSS SNE WHICH SUGGESTS HEAVIER SNOW WILL
SET UP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...MAINLY N OF THE MASS PIKE WITH
LIGHTER SNOW TO THE SOUTH. THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY LOOKING AT
2-3 INCHES NORTH OF THE PIKE WITH 1-2 INCHES TO THE
SOUTH...EXCEPT LESS THAN AN INCH NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.

EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN THE CT VALLEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING BY LATE IN THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
MID LEVEL TROF CLOSES OFF JUST SOUTH OF THE SNE COAST AS COASTAL
LOW INTENSIFIES IN THE GULF OF MAINE. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...ECMWF
IS FURTHEST S WITH THE SFC LOW AND THUS IS MOST BULLISH ON BRINING
A PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW...MAINLY TO N/NE MA. WE USED A MULTI
MODEL BLEND OF QPF AS A BASIS FOR SNOW ACCUM. MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WITH A
BAND OF SNOW IN THE COMMA HEAD ROTATING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF
SNE. EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR 2 FOR CENTRAL AND E MA...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS NE MA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THIS AREA FOR THE POTENTIAL OF HIGHER ACCUM PER ECMWF.

WE DECIDED ON A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE
MASS PIKE IN N/NE MA WHERE HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED...FOR THE PERIOD
FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO FRI NIGHT. CURRENT THINKING IS TOTAL
ACCUM THROUGH FRI NIGHT WILL BE 4-6 INCHES N/NE MA WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. LOW PROB THAT WARNING WILL BE NEEDED FOR
NE MA PER ECMWF...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH SO WE OPTED FOR
AN ADVISORY.

TURNING MUCH COLDER FRI NIGHT AS GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP WITH
DEEPENING LOW PRES IN THE GULF OF MAINE. DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND
CHILLS OF 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO IN HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND W
MA...WITH 5 TO 10 BELOW IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR HIGHER TERRAIN IN CENTRAL
AND W MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HEADLINES...

* ARCTIC AIR INVADES NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND ON BLUSTERY NW
  WINDS
* COASTAL STORM POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT LOW
  CONFIDENCE CONTINUES

OVERVIEW...
H5 CUTOFF LOW PRES WILL SPIN OFF THE MAINE COAST SATURDAY...WITH
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW SLOWLY SHIFTING INTO NOVA SCOTIA. UPPER
LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL FLATTEN OUT...ALLOWING WEATHER SYSTEMS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
LONG TERM. NOTING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THIS FAST FLOW DIGGING
INTO THE MID ATLC STATES...WHICH WILL TRIGGER ANOTHER LOW
DEVELOPING S OF THE REGION. MANY QUESTIONS REMAIN ON THE TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF THIS LOW AS IT PASSES NEAR OR S OF THE
REGION...WHICH WILL DETERMINE ITS EFFECTS. MODEL SOLUTION SPREAD
IS HIGH...SO LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT. ONE CERTAINTY IS THE
FRIGID TEMPERATURES WINDS AND BLUSTERY WINDS AT TIMES INTO
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NE INTO NOVA
SCOTIA SATURDAY. THIS WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON.
NW WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL
DIMINISH AS HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS. ANOTHER DRY FRONT WILL SHIFT
SE SUNDAY...JUST REINFORCING THE ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGH TEMPS BOTH DAYS WILL RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. THE HIGH ON SAT AT KBDL MAY BE CLOSE TO THE RECORD LOW
MAX TEMP /RECORD IS 15 DEGREES SET IN 1951/.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...ANOTHER H5 SHORT WAVE WILL DIG TO THE MID
ATLC COAST IN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. BIG QUESTIONS REMAIN...WHERE
WILL THE SURFACE SYSTEM DEVELOP...HOW STRONG WILL IT BE AND HOW
FAR N WILL IT TRACK. LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO WIDE MODEL SOLUTION
SPREAD. ONE THING NOT IN QUESTION...PRECIP WILL MOST LIKELY BE IN
THE FORM OF SNOW...BUT HOW MUCH. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE NEXT FEW
MODEL RUNS TO DETERMINE THAT.

AT THIS POINT...HAVE MENTIONED CHANCE POPS FOR MOST AREAS WITH
THE BEST CHANCE ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS. UPPER
PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE...THOUGH...SO THE LOW SHOULD DEPART
LATE MON OR MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...
MORE ARCTIC COLD ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRES BUILDS E. LOOKS LIKE THE LOW WILL SHIFT E ON WED...WHICH
MEANS TEMPS MAY START TO REBOUND BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. YET ANOTHER LOW MAY APPROACH WED NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF PRECIP...THOUGH TIMING AND TRACK FOR THIS LOW IS ALSO
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE FROM W-E THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...CIGS LOWER OVERNIGHT TO MVFR-IFR IN
OCCASIONAL SNOW. THE SNOW MAY MIX OR CHANGE TO RAIN ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE S COAST AND ESPECIALLY THE CAPE/ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND
FRI. SNOW DIMINISHES FRI AFTERNOON IN THE CT VALLEY BUT CONTINUES
ACROSS E NEW ENG. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 25-30 KT AND VFR CIGS DEVELOPING IN THE CT VALLEY BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING
OF SNOW AND LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING
OF SNOW AND LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR WEST. POSSIBLE IFR TO START
FOR EASTERN LOCALES...BUT WITH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25-35
KNOTS SATURDAY...HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST. LIGHTER WINDS SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. LOW PRES DEVELOPS S OF THE
REGION...BUT TRACK REMAINS UNCERTAIN. TOO EARLY TO HAVE ANY
CONFIDENCE ON VFR OR IFR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WATERS WITH DIMINISHING WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND SUBSIDING SEAS BELOW SCA.

TONIGHT...INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF LOW PRES
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...BUT WIND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA.

FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO W THEN NW DURING FRI
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT DEVELOPING ACROSS RI COASTAL
WATERS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FRI-
SAT...LOW CONFIDENCE SUN-MON.

FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW PRES WILL CROSS THE WATERS. REDUCED VSBYS IN
SNOW MAINLY IN THE EASTERN WATERS EARLY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NW
AND INCREASE. GUSTS UP TO GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. GALE WATCHES ISSUED
FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT BOSTON HARBOR. FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY.

SATURDAY...NW GALES EXPECTED. FREEZING SPRAY DEVELOPING. HIGH
SEAS FORECAST...10-12 FT OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH SAT NIGHT WITH A CORRESPONDING LOWERING OF SEAS.

SUNDAY...EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH BUT REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS...THOUGH SOME GALE GUSTS MAY LINGER ON THE EASTERN OUTER
WATERS EARLY. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE...BUT WILL REMAIN AOA 5 FT
ON THE OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...DEPENDING UPON STRENGTH AND TRACK OF
DEVELOPING LOW PRES S OF THE REGION...COULD SEE WIND GUSTS UP TO
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SEAS WILL REMAIN AOA 5 FT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MAZ004>007-014-026.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ANZ231>234-251.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ235-237.
     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ255.
     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC/EVT
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 291225
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
725 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT WITH A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND MOVING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE FRI INTO FRI
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW LATER TONIGHT AND
FRI...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI NIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE REGION.
BLUSTERY AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
ANOTHER STORM MAY BRING SNOW TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
715 AM UPDATE...
LAST OF OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET
EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE SHIFTED OFFSHORE AS SEEN ON LATEST NE
REGIONAL IR SATELLITE. WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION...
LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM WINDS IN PLACE EXCEPT ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND
NANTUCKET WHERE N WINDS AT AROUND 10 MPH. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND
NEW DEEP SNOW PACK...TEMPS HAVE PLUMMETED EARLY THIS MORNING.
TEMP DOWN TO -12 AT KOWD AND -11 AT KCEF AT 12Z...WHILE THE
WARMEST INLAND SPOT IS KORH /1000 FT ELEVATION/ AT 19...TRUE
INVERSION IN PLACE.

NOTED A FEW HIGH CLOUD STREAMERS APPROACHING THE REGION ON
SATELLITE...BUT MORE APPRECIABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SEEN ACROSS W
NY/PA. THESE WILL MOVE TOWARD WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY AROUND MIDDAY
OR EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN PUSH E THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
WITH FAST UPPER LEVEL WINDS IN PLACE.

HAVE UPDATED NEAR TERM FORECAST TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER NEW ENG TODAY...THEN MOVES TO THE EAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY W NEW ENG AS HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVES IN AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. WITH LIGHT
WINDS...EXPECT A NICE RECOVERY IN TEMPS AFTER VERY COLD START.
MAXES WILL REACH THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER AND MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
DIGGING SHORTWAVE FROM THE UPPER LAKES WILL MOVE SE AND PHASE
WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY TO FORM A NEG
TILT TROF ALONG THE NEW ENG COAST ON FRI. PRIMARY LOW LIFTS NE
INTO NORTHERN NY TONIGHT WHILE SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE SNE
COAST FRI ASSOCD WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND HEIGHT FALLS
MOVING TO THE COAST. ECMWF IS FURTHEST SOUTH WITH THE SECONDARY
LOW AND AS A RESULT HAS MORE QPF THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THE TRACK
OF THE 700 MB LOW WILL BE CRITICAL TO WHERE HEAVIER SNOWFALL SETS
UP.

DEEPENING MOISTURE AND INCREASING MID LEVEL LIFT WILL RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS SNE LATER TONIGHT INTO FRI.
HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY LOW WILL LIKELY WARM
THE BOUNDARY LAYER ENOUGH FOR A MIX OR CHANGEOVER TO RAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST AND ESPECIALLY
CAPE/ISLANDS.

THE 700 MB LOW TRACKS ACROSS SNE WHICH SUGGESTS HEAVIER SNOW WILL
SET UP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...MAINLY N OF THE MASS PIKE WITH
LIGHTER SNOW TO THE SOUTH. THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY LOOKING AT
2-3 INCHES NORTH OF THE PIKE WITH 1-2 INCHES TO THE
SOUTH...EXCEPT LESS THAN AN INCH NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.

EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN THE CT VALLEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING BY LATE IN THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
MID LEVEL TROF CLOSES OFF JUST SOUTH OF THE SNE COAST AS COASTAL
LOW INTENSIFIES IN THE GULF OF MAINE. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...ECMWF
IS FURTHEST S WITH THE SFC LOW AND THUS IS MOST BULLISH ON BRINING
A PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW...MAINLY TO N/NE MA. WE USED A MULTI
MODEL BLEND OF QPF AS A BASIS FOR SNOW ACCUM. MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WITH A
BAND OF SNOW IN THE COMMA HEAD ROTATING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF
SNE. EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR 2 FOR CENTRAL AND E MA...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS NE MA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THIS AREA FOR THE POTENTIAL OF HIGHER ACCUM PER ECMWF.

WE DECIDED ON A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE
MASS PIKE IN N/NE MA WHERE HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED...FOR THE PERIOD
FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO FRI NIGHT. CURRENT THINKING IS TOTAL
ACCUM THROUGH FRI NIGHT WILL BE 4-6 INCHES N/NE MA WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. LOW PROB THAT WARNING WILL BE NEEDED FOR
NE MA PER ECMWF...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH SO WE OPTED FOR
AN ADVISORY.

TURNING MUCH COLDER FRI NIGHT AS GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP WITH
DEEPENING LOW PRES IN THE GULF OF MAINE. DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND
CHILLS OF 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO IN HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND W
MA...WITH 5 TO 10 BELOW IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR HIGHER TERRAIN IN CENTRAL
AND W MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HEADLINES...

* ARCTIC AIR INVADES NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND ON BLUSTERY NW
  WINDS
* COASTAL STORM POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT LOW
  CONFIDENCE CONTINUES

OVERVIEW...
H5 CUTOFF LOW PRES WILL SPIN OFF THE MAINE COAST SATURDAY...WITH
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW SLOWLY SHIFTING INTO NOVA SCOTIA. UPPER
LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL FLATTEN OUT...ALLOWING WEATHER SYSTEMS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
LONG TERM. NOTING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THIS FAST FLOW DIGGING
INTO THE MID ATLC STATES...WHICH WILL TRIGGER ANOTHER LOW
DEVELOPING S OF THE REGION. MANY QUESTIONS REMAIN ON THE TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF THIS LOW AS IT PASSES NEAR OR S OF THE
REGION...WHICH WILL DETERMINE ITS EFFECTS. MODEL SOLUTION SPREAD
IS HIGH...SO LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT. ONE CERTAINTY IS THE
FRIGID TEMPERATURES WINDS AND BLUSTERY WINDS AT TIMES INTO
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NE INTO NOVA
SCOTIA SATURDAY. THIS WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON.
NW WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL
DIMINISH AS HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS. ANOTHER DRY FRONT WILL SHIFT
SE SUNDAY...JUST REINFORCING THE ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGH TEMPS BOTH DAYS WILL RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. THE HIGH ON SAT AT KBDL MAY BE CLOSE TO THE RECORD LOW
MAX TEMP /RECORD IS 15 DEGREES SET IN 1951/.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...ANOTHER H5 SHORT WAVE WILL DIG TO THE MID
ATLC COAST IN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. BIG QUESTIONS REMAIN...WHERE
WILL THE SURFACE SYSTEM DEVELOP...HOW STRONG WILL IT BE AND HOW
FAR N WILL IT TRACK. LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO WIDE MODEL SOLUTION
SPREAD. ONE THING NOT IN QUESTION...PRECIP WILL MOST LIKELY BE IN
THE FORM OF SNOW...BUT HOW MUCH. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE NEXT FEW
MODEL RUNS TO DETERMINE THAT.

AT THIS POINT...HAVE MENTIONED CHANCE POPS FOR MOST AREAS WITH
THE BEST CHANCE ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS. UPPER
PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE...THOUGH...SO THE LOW SHOULD DEPART
LATE MON OR MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...
MORE ARCTIC COLD ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRES BUILDS E. LOOKS LIKE THE LOW WILL SHIFT E ON WED...WHICH
MEANS TEMPS MAY START TO REBOUND BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. YET ANOTHER LOW MAY APPROACH WED NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF PRECIP...THOUGH TIMING AND TRACK FOR THIS LOW IS ALSO
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE FROM W-E THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...CIGS LOWER OVERNIGHT TO MVFR-IFR IN
OCCASIONAL SNOW. THE SNOW MAY MIX OR CHANGE TO RAIN ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE S COAST AND ESPECIALLY THE CAPE/ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND
FRI. SNOW DIMINISHES FRI AFTERNOON IN THE CT VALLEY BUT CONTINUES
ACROSS E NEW ENG. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 25-30 KT AND VFR CIGS DEVELOPING IN THE CT VALLEY BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING
OF SNOW AND LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING
OF SNOW AND LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR WEST. POSSIBLE IFR TO START
FOR EASTERN LOCALES...BUT WITH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25-35
KNOTS SATURDAY...HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST. LIGHTER WINDS SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. LOW PRES DEVELOPS S OF THE
REGION...BUT TRACK REMAINS UNCERTAIN. TOO EARLY TO HAVE ANY
CONFIDENCE ON VFR OR IFR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WATERS WITH DIMINISHING WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND SUBSIDING SEAS BELOW SCA.

TONIGHT...INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF LOW PRES
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...BUT WIND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA.

FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO W THEN NW DURING FRI
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT DEVELOPING ACROSS RI COASTAL
WATERS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FRI-
SAT...LOW CONFIDENCE SUN-MON.

FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW PRES WILL CROSS THE WATERS. REDUCED VSBYS IN
SNOW MAINLY IN THE EASTERN WATERS EARLY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NW
AND INCREASE. GUSTS UP TO GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. GALE WATCHES ISSUED
FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT BOSTON HARBOR. FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY.

SATURDAY...NW GALES EXPECTED. FREEZING SPRAY DEVELOPING. HIGH
SEAS FORECAST...10-12 FT OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH SAT NIGHT WITH A CORRESPONDING LOWERING OF SEAS.

SUNDAY...EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH BUT REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS...THOUGH SOME GALE GUSTS MAY LINGER ON THE EASTERN OUTER
WATERS EARLY. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE...BUT WILL REMAIN AOA 5 FT
ON THE OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...DEPENDING UPON STRENGTH AND TRACK OF
DEVELOPING LOW PRES S OF THE REGION...COULD SEE WIND GUSTS UP TO
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SEAS WILL REMAIN AOA 5 FT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MAZ004>007-014-026.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ANZ231>234-251.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ235-237.
     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ255.
     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC/EVT
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 291225
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
725 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT WITH A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND MOVING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE FRI INTO FRI
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW LATER TONIGHT AND
FRI...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI NIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE REGION.
BLUSTERY AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
ANOTHER STORM MAY BRING SNOW TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
715 AM UPDATE...
LAST OF OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET
EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE SHIFTED OFFSHORE AS SEEN ON LATEST NE
REGIONAL IR SATELLITE. WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION...
LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM WINDS IN PLACE EXCEPT ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND
NANTUCKET WHERE N WINDS AT AROUND 10 MPH. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND
NEW DEEP SNOW PACK...TEMPS HAVE PLUMMETED EARLY THIS MORNING.
TEMP DOWN TO -12 AT KOWD AND -11 AT KCEF AT 12Z...WHILE THE
WARMEST INLAND SPOT IS KORH /1000 FT ELEVATION/ AT 19...TRUE
INVERSION IN PLACE.

NOTED A FEW HIGH CLOUD STREAMERS APPROACHING THE REGION ON
SATELLITE...BUT MORE APPRECIABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SEEN ACROSS W
NY/PA. THESE WILL MOVE TOWARD WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY AROUND MIDDAY
OR EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN PUSH E THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
WITH FAST UPPER LEVEL WINDS IN PLACE.

HAVE UPDATED NEAR TERM FORECAST TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER NEW ENG TODAY...THEN MOVES TO THE EAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY W NEW ENG AS HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVES IN AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. WITH LIGHT
WINDS...EXPECT A NICE RECOVERY IN TEMPS AFTER VERY COLD START.
MAXES WILL REACH THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER AND MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
DIGGING SHORTWAVE FROM THE UPPER LAKES WILL MOVE SE AND PHASE
WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY TO FORM A NEG
TILT TROF ALONG THE NEW ENG COAST ON FRI. PRIMARY LOW LIFTS NE
INTO NORTHERN NY TONIGHT WHILE SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE SNE
COAST FRI ASSOCD WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND HEIGHT FALLS
MOVING TO THE COAST. ECMWF IS FURTHEST SOUTH WITH THE SECONDARY
LOW AND AS A RESULT HAS MORE QPF THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THE TRACK
OF THE 700 MB LOW WILL BE CRITICAL TO WHERE HEAVIER SNOWFALL SETS
UP.

DEEPENING MOISTURE AND INCREASING MID LEVEL LIFT WILL RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS SNE LATER TONIGHT INTO FRI.
HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY LOW WILL LIKELY WARM
THE BOUNDARY LAYER ENOUGH FOR A MIX OR CHANGEOVER TO RAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST AND ESPECIALLY
CAPE/ISLANDS.

THE 700 MB LOW TRACKS ACROSS SNE WHICH SUGGESTS HEAVIER SNOW WILL
SET UP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...MAINLY N OF THE MASS PIKE WITH
LIGHTER SNOW TO THE SOUTH. THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY LOOKING AT
2-3 INCHES NORTH OF THE PIKE WITH 1-2 INCHES TO THE
SOUTH...EXCEPT LESS THAN AN INCH NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.

EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN THE CT VALLEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING BY LATE IN THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
MID LEVEL TROF CLOSES OFF JUST SOUTH OF THE SNE COAST AS COASTAL
LOW INTENSIFIES IN THE GULF OF MAINE. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...ECMWF
IS FURTHEST S WITH THE SFC LOW AND THUS IS MOST BULLISH ON BRINING
A PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW...MAINLY TO N/NE MA. WE USED A MULTI
MODEL BLEND OF QPF AS A BASIS FOR SNOW ACCUM. MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WITH A
BAND OF SNOW IN THE COMMA HEAD ROTATING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF
SNE. EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR 2 FOR CENTRAL AND E MA...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS NE MA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THIS AREA FOR THE POTENTIAL OF HIGHER ACCUM PER ECMWF.

WE DECIDED ON A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE
MASS PIKE IN N/NE MA WHERE HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED...FOR THE PERIOD
FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO FRI NIGHT. CURRENT THINKING IS TOTAL
ACCUM THROUGH FRI NIGHT WILL BE 4-6 INCHES N/NE MA WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. LOW PROB THAT WARNING WILL BE NEEDED FOR
NE MA PER ECMWF...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH SO WE OPTED FOR
AN ADVISORY.

TURNING MUCH COLDER FRI NIGHT AS GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP WITH
DEEPENING LOW PRES IN THE GULF OF MAINE. DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND
CHILLS OF 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO IN HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND W
MA...WITH 5 TO 10 BELOW IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR HIGHER TERRAIN IN CENTRAL
AND W MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HEADLINES...

* ARCTIC AIR INVADES NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND ON BLUSTERY NW
  WINDS
* COASTAL STORM POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT LOW
  CONFIDENCE CONTINUES

OVERVIEW...
H5 CUTOFF LOW PRES WILL SPIN OFF THE MAINE COAST SATURDAY...WITH
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW SLOWLY SHIFTING INTO NOVA SCOTIA. UPPER
LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL FLATTEN OUT...ALLOWING WEATHER SYSTEMS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
LONG TERM. NOTING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THIS FAST FLOW DIGGING
INTO THE MID ATLC STATES...WHICH WILL TRIGGER ANOTHER LOW
DEVELOPING S OF THE REGION. MANY QUESTIONS REMAIN ON THE TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF THIS LOW AS IT PASSES NEAR OR S OF THE
REGION...WHICH WILL DETERMINE ITS EFFECTS. MODEL SOLUTION SPREAD
IS HIGH...SO LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT. ONE CERTAINTY IS THE
FRIGID TEMPERATURES WINDS AND BLUSTERY WINDS AT TIMES INTO
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NE INTO NOVA
SCOTIA SATURDAY. THIS WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON.
NW WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL
DIMINISH AS HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS. ANOTHER DRY FRONT WILL SHIFT
SE SUNDAY...JUST REINFORCING THE ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGH TEMPS BOTH DAYS WILL RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. THE HIGH ON SAT AT KBDL MAY BE CLOSE TO THE RECORD LOW
MAX TEMP /RECORD IS 15 DEGREES SET IN 1951/.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...ANOTHER H5 SHORT WAVE WILL DIG TO THE MID
ATLC COAST IN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. BIG QUESTIONS REMAIN...WHERE
WILL THE SURFACE SYSTEM DEVELOP...HOW STRONG WILL IT BE AND HOW
FAR N WILL IT TRACK. LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO WIDE MODEL SOLUTION
SPREAD. ONE THING NOT IN QUESTION...PRECIP WILL MOST LIKELY BE IN
THE FORM OF SNOW...BUT HOW MUCH. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE NEXT FEW
MODEL RUNS TO DETERMINE THAT.

AT THIS POINT...HAVE MENTIONED CHANCE POPS FOR MOST AREAS WITH
THE BEST CHANCE ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS. UPPER
PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE...THOUGH...SO THE LOW SHOULD DEPART
LATE MON OR MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...
MORE ARCTIC COLD ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRES BUILDS E. LOOKS LIKE THE LOW WILL SHIFT E ON WED...WHICH
MEANS TEMPS MAY START TO REBOUND BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. YET ANOTHER LOW MAY APPROACH WED NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF PRECIP...THOUGH TIMING AND TRACK FOR THIS LOW IS ALSO
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE FROM W-E THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...CIGS LOWER OVERNIGHT TO MVFR-IFR IN
OCCASIONAL SNOW. THE SNOW MAY MIX OR CHANGE TO RAIN ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE S COAST AND ESPECIALLY THE CAPE/ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND
FRI. SNOW DIMINISHES FRI AFTERNOON IN THE CT VALLEY BUT CONTINUES
ACROSS E NEW ENG. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 25-30 KT AND VFR CIGS DEVELOPING IN THE CT VALLEY BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING
OF SNOW AND LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING
OF SNOW AND LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR WEST. POSSIBLE IFR TO START
FOR EASTERN LOCALES...BUT WITH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25-35
KNOTS SATURDAY...HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST. LIGHTER WINDS SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. LOW PRES DEVELOPS S OF THE
REGION...BUT TRACK REMAINS UNCERTAIN. TOO EARLY TO HAVE ANY
CONFIDENCE ON VFR OR IFR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WATERS WITH DIMINISHING WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND SUBSIDING SEAS BELOW SCA.

TONIGHT...INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF LOW PRES
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...BUT WIND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA.

FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO W THEN NW DURING FRI
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT DEVELOPING ACROSS RI COASTAL
WATERS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FRI-
SAT...LOW CONFIDENCE SUN-MON.

FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW PRES WILL CROSS THE WATERS. REDUCED VSBYS IN
SNOW MAINLY IN THE EASTERN WATERS EARLY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NW
AND INCREASE. GUSTS UP TO GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. GALE WATCHES ISSUED
FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT BOSTON HARBOR. FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY.

SATURDAY...NW GALES EXPECTED. FREEZING SPRAY DEVELOPING. HIGH
SEAS FORECAST...10-12 FT OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH SAT NIGHT WITH A CORRESPONDING LOWERING OF SEAS.

SUNDAY...EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH BUT REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS...THOUGH SOME GALE GUSTS MAY LINGER ON THE EASTERN OUTER
WATERS EARLY. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE...BUT WILL REMAIN AOA 5 FT
ON THE OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...DEPENDING UPON STRENGTH AND TRACK OF
DEVELOPING LOW PRES S OF THE REGION...COULD SEE WIND GUSTS UP TO
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SEAS WILL REMAIN AOA 5 FT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MAZ004>007-014-026.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ANZ231>234-251.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ235-237.
     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ255.
     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC/EVT
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 291225
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
725 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT WITH A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND MOVING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE FRI INTO FRI
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW LATER TONIGHT AND
FRI...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI NIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE REGION.
BLUSTERY AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
ANOTHER STORM MAY BRING SNOW TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
715 AM UPDATE...
LAST OF OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET
EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE SHIFTED OFFSHORE AS SEEN ON LATEST NE
REGIONAL IR SATELLITE. WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION...
LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM WINDS IN PLACE EXCEPT ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND
NANTUCKET WHERE N WINDS AT AROUND 10 MPH. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND
NEW DEEP SNOW PACK...TEMPS HAVE PLUMMETED EARLY THIS MORNING.
TEMP DOWN TO -12 AT KOWD AND -11 AT KCEF AT 12Z...WHILE THE
WARMEST INLAND SPOT IS KORH /1000 FT ELEVATION/ AT 19...TRUE
INVERSION IN PLACE.

NOTED A FEW HIGH CLOUD STREAMERS APPROACHING THE REGION ON
SATELLITE...BUT MORE APPRECIABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SEEN ACROSS W
NY/PA. THESE WILL MOVE TOWARD WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY AROUND MIDDAY
OR EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN PUSH E THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
WITH FAST UPPER LEVEL WINDS IN PLACE.

HAVE UPDATED NEAR TERM FORECAST TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER NEW ENG TODAY...THEN MOVES TO THE EAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY W NEW ENG AS HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVES IN AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. WITH LIGHT
WINDS...EXPECT A NICE RECOVERY IN TEMPS AFTER VERY COLD START.
MAXES WILL REACH THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER AND MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
DIGGING SHORTWAVE FROM THE UPPER LAKES WILL MOVE SE AND PHASE
WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY TO FORM A NEG
TILT TROF ALONG THE NEW ENG COAST ON FRI. PRIMARY LOW LIFTS NE
INTO NORTHERN NY TONIGHT WHILE SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE SNE
COAST FRI ASSOCD WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND HEIGHT FALLS
MOVING TO THE COAST. ECMWF IS FURTHEST SOUTH WITH THE SECONDARY
LOW AND AS A RESULT HAS MORE QPF THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THE TRACK
OF THE 700 MB LOW WILL BE CRITICAL TO WHERE HEAVIER SNOWFALL SETS
UP.

DEEPENING MOISTURE AND INCREASING MID LEVEL LIFT WILL RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS SNE LATER TONIGHT INTO FRI.
HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY LOW WILL LIKELY WARM
THE BOUNDARY LAYER ENOUGH FOR A MIX OR CHANGEOVER TO RAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST AND ESPECIALLY
CAPE/ISLANDS.

THE 700 MB LOW TRACKS ACROSS SNE WHICH SUGGESTS HEAVIER SNOW WILL
SET UP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...MAINLY N OF THE MASS PIKE WITH
LIGHTER SNOW TO THE SOUTH. THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY LOOKING AT
2-3 INCHES NORTH OF THE PIKE WITH 1-2 INCHES TO THE
SOUTH...EXCEPT LESS THAN AN INCH NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.

EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN THE CT VALLEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING BY LATE IN THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
MID LEVEL TROF CLOSES OFF JUST SOUTH OF THE SNE COAST AS COASTAL
LOW INTENSIFIES IN THE GULF OF MAINE. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...ECMWF
IS FURTHEST S WITH THE SFC LOW AND THUS IS MOST BULLISH ON BRINING
A PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW...MAINLY TO N/NE MA. WE USED A MULTI
MODEL BLEND OF QPF AS A BASIS FOR SNOW ACCUM. MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WITH A
BAND OF SNOW IN THE COMMA HEAD ROTATING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF
SNE. EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR 2 FOR CENTRAL AND E MA...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS NE MA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THIS AREA FOR THE POTENTIAL OF HIGHER ACCUM PER ECMWF.

WE DECIDED ON A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE
MASS PIKE IN N/NE MA WHERE HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED...FOR THE PERIOD
FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO FRI NIGHT. CURRENT THINKING IS TOTAL
ACCUM THROUGH FRI NIGHT WILL BE 4-6 INCHES N/NE MA WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. LOW PROB THAT WARNING WILL BE NEEDED FOR
NE MA PER ECMWF...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH SO WE OPTED FOR
AN ADVISORY.

TURNING MUCH COLDER FRI NIGHT AS GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP WITH
DEEPENING LOW PRES IN THE GULF OF MAINE. DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND
CHILLS OF 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO IN HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND W
MA...WITH 5 TO 10 BELOW IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR HIGHER TERRAIN IN CENTRAL
AND W MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HEADLINES...

* ARCTIC AIR INVADES NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND ON BLUSTERY NW
  WINDS
* COASTAL STORM POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT LOW
  CONFIDENCE CONTINUES

OVERVIEW...
H5 CUTOFF LOW PRES WILL SPIN OFF THE MAINE COAST SATURDAY...WITH
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW SLOWLY SHIFTING INTO NOVA SCOTIA. UPPER
LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL FLATTEN OUT...ALLOWING WEATHER SYSTEMS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
LONG TERM. NOTING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THIS FAST FLOW DIGGING
INTO THE MID ATLC STATES...WHICH WILL TRIGGER ANOTHER LOW
DEVELOPING S OF THE REGION. MANY QUESTIONS REMAIN ON THE TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF THIS LOW AS IT PASSES NEAR OR S OF THE
REGION...WHICH WILL DETERMINE ITS EFFECTS. MODEL SOLUTION SPREAD
IS HIGH...SO LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT. ONE CERTAINTY IS THE
FRIGID TEMPERATURES WINDS AND BLUSTERY WINDS AT TIMES INTO
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NE INTO NOVA
SCOTIA SATURDAY. THIS WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON.
NW WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL
DIMINISH AS HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS. ANOTHER DRY FRONT WILL SHIFT
SE SUNDAY...JUST REINFORCING THE ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGH TEMPS BOTH DAYS WILL RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. THE HIGH ON SAT AT KBDL MAY BE CLOSE TO THE RECORD LOW
MAX TEMP /RECORD IS 15 DEGREES SET IN 1951/.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...ANOTHER H5 SHORT WAVE WILL DIG TO THE MID
ATLC COAST IN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. BIG QUESTIONS REMAIN...WHERE
WILL THE SURFACE SYSTEM DEVELOP...HOW STRONG WILL IT BE AND HOW
FAR N WILL IT TRACK. LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO WIDE MODEL SOLUTION
SPREAD. ONE THING NOT IN QUESTION...PRECIP WILL MOST LIKELY BE IN
THE FORM OF SNOW...BUT HOW MUCH. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE NEXT FEW
MODEL RUNS TO DETERMINE THAT.

AT THIS POINT...HAVE MENTIONED CHANCE POPS FOR MOST AREAS WITH
THE BEST CHANCE ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS. UPPER
PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE...THOUGH...SO THE LOW SHOULD DEPART
LATE MON OR MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...
MORE ARCTIC COLD ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRES BUILDS E. LOOKS LIKE THE LOW WILL SHIFT E ON WED...WHICH
MEANS TEMPS MAY START TO REBOUND BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. YET ANOTHER LOW MAY APPROACH WED NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF PRECIP...THOUGH TIMING AND TRACK FOR THIS LOW IS ALSO
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE FROM W-E THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...CIGS LOWER OVERNIGHT TO MVFR-IFR IN
OCCASIONAL SNOW. THE SNOW MAY MIX OR CHANGE TO RAIN ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE S COAST AND ESPECIALLY THE CAPE/ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND
FRI. SNOW DIMINISHES FRI AFTERNOON IN THE CT VALLEY BUT CONTINUES
ACROSS E NEW ENG. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 25-30 KT AND VFR CIGS DEVELOPING IN THE CT VALLEY BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING
OF SNOW AND LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING
OF SNOW AND LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR WEST. POSSIBLE IFR TO START
FOR EASTERN LOCALES...BUT WITH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25-35
KNOTS SATURDAY...HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST. LIGHTER WINDS SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. LOW PRES DEVELOPS S OF THE
REGION...BUT TRACK REMAINS UNCERTAIN. TOO EARLY TO HAVE ANY
CONFIDENCE ON VFR OR IFR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WATERS WITH DIMINISHING WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND SUBSIDING SEAS BELOW SCA.

TONIGHT...INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF LOW PRES
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...BUT WIND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA.

FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO W THEN NW DURING FRI
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT DEVELOPING ACROSS RI COASTAL
WATERS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FRI-
SAT...LOW CONFIDENCE SUN-MON.

FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW PRES WILL CROSS THE WATERS. REDUCED VSBYS IN
SNOW MAINLY IN THE EASTERN WATERS EARLY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NW
AND INCREASE. GUSTS UP TO GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. GALE WATCHES ISSUED
FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT BOSTON HARBOR. FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY.

SATURDAY...NW GALES EXPECTED. FREEZING SPRAY DEVELOPING. HIGH
SEAS FORECAST...10-12 FT OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH SAT NIGHT WITH A CORRESPONDING LOWERING OF SEAS.

SUNDAY...EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH BUT REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS...THOUGH SOME GALE GUSTS MAY LINGER ON THE EASTERN OUTER
WATERS EARLY. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE...BUT WILL REMAIN AOA 5 FT
ON THE OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...DEPENDING UPON STRENGTH AND TRACK OF
DEVELOPING LOW PRES S OF THE REGION...COULD SEE WIND GUSTS UP TO
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SEAS WILL REMAIN AOA 5 FT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MAZ004>007-014-026.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ANZ231>234-251.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ235-237.
     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ255.
     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC/EVT
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 291028
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
528 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT WITH A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND MOVING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE FRI INTO FRI
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW LATER TONIGHT AND
FRI...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI NIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE REGION.
BLUSTERY AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
ANOTHER STORM MAY BRING SNOW TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS ARE GRADUALLY
ERODING AND WILL CLEAR OUT BY DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...A FRIGID
MORNING ACROSS SNE WITH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW ZERO IN SOME
OF COLDER SPOTS.

HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER NEW ENG TODAY...THEN MOVES TO THE EAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY W NEW ENG AS HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVES IN AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. WITH LIGHT
WINDS...EXPECT A NICE RECOVERY IN TEMPS AFTER VERY COLD START.
MAXES WILL REACH THE UPPER 20S TO LOW/MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
DIGGING SHORTWAVE FROM THE UPPER LAKES WILL MOVE SE AND PHASE
WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY TO FORM A NEG
TILT TROF ALONG THE NEW ENG COAST ON FRI. PRIMARY LOW LIFTS NE
INTO NORTHERN NY TONIGHT WHILE SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE SNE
COAST FRI ASSOCD WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND HEIGHT FALLS
MOVING TO THE COAST. ECMWF IS FURTHEST SOUTH WITH THE SECONDARY
LOW AND AS A RESULT HAS MORE QPF THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THE TRACK
OF THE 700 MB LOW WILL BE CRITICAL TO WHERE HEAVIER SNOWFALL SETS
UP.

DEEPENING MOISTURE AND INCREASING MID LEVEL LIFT WILL RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS SNE LATER TONIGHT INTO FRI.
HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY LOW WILL LIKELY WARM
THE BOUNDARY LAYER ENOUGH FOR A MIX OR CHANGEOVER TO RAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST AND ESPECIALLY
CAPE/ISLANDS.

THE 700 MB LOW TRACKS ACROSS SNE WHICH SUGGESTS HEAVIER SNOW WILL
SET UP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...MAINLY N OF THE MASS PIKE WITH
LIGHTER SNOW TO THE SOUTH. THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY LOOKING AT
2-3 INCHES NORTH OF THE PIKE WITH 1-2 INCHES TO THE
SOUTH...EXCEPT LESS THAN AN INCH NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.

EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN THE CT VALLEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING BY LATE IN THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
MID LEVEL TROF CLOSES OFF JUST SOUTH OF THE SNE COAST AS COASTAL
LOW INTENSIFIES IN THE GULF OF MAINE. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...ECMWF
IS FURTHEST S WITH THE SFC LOW AND THUS IS MOST BULLISH ON BRINING
A PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW...MAINLY TO N/NE MA. WE USED A MULTI
MODEL BLEND OF QPF AS A BASIS FOR SNOW ACCUM. MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WITH A
BAND OF SNOW IN THE COMMA HEAD ROTATING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF
SNE. EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR 2 FOR CENTRAL AND E MA...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS NE MA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THIS AREA FOR THE POTENTIAL OF HIGHER ACCUM PER ECMWF.

WE DECIDED ON A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE
MASS PIKE IN N/NE MA WHERE HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED...FOR THE PERIOD
FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO FRI NIGHT. CURRENT THINKING IS TOTAL
ACCUM THROUGH FRI NIGHT WILL BE 4-6 INCHES N/NE MA WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. LOW PROB THAT WARNING WILL BE NEEDED FOR
NE MA PER ECMWF...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH SO WE OPTED FOR
AN ADVISORY.

TURNING MUCH COLDER FRI NIGHT AS GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP WITH
DEEPENING LOW PRES IN THE GULF OF MAINE. DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND
CHILLS OF 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO IN HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND W
MA...WITH 5 TO 10 BELOW IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR HIGHER TERRAIN IN CENTRAL
AND W MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HEADLINES...

* ARCTIC AIR INVADES NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND ON BLUSTERY NW
  WINDS
* COASTAL STORM POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT LOW
  CONFIDENCE CONTINUES

OVERVIEW...
H5 CUTOFF LOW PRES WILL SPIN OFF THE MAINE COAST SATURDAY...WITH
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW SLOWLY SHIFTING INTO NOVA SCOTIA. UPPER
LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL FLATTEN OUT...ALLOWING WEATHER SYSTEMS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
LONG TERM. NOTING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THIS FAST FLOW DIGGING
INTO THE MID ATLC STATES...WHICH WILL TRIGGER ANOTHER LOW
DEVELOPING S OF THE REGION. MANY QUESTIONS REMAIN ON THE TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF THIS LOW AS IT PASSES NEAR OR S OF THE
REGION...WHICH WILL DETERMINE ITS EFFECTS. MODEL SOLUTION SPREAD
IS HIGH...SO LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT. ONE CERTAINTY IS THE
FRIGID TEMPERATURES WINDS AND BLUSTERY WINDS AT TIMES INTO
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NE INTO NOVA
SCOTIA SATURDAY. THIS WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON.
NW WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL
DIMINISH AS HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS. ANOTHER DRY FRONT WILL SHIFT
SE SUNDAY...JUST REINFORCING THE ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGH TEMPS BOTH DAYS WILL RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. THE HIGH ON SAT AT KBDL MAY BE CLOSE TO THE RECORD LOW
MAX TEMP /RECORD IS 15 DEGREES SET IN 1951/.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...ANOTHER H5 SHORT WAVE WILL DIG TO THE MID
ATLC COAST IN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. BIG QUESTIONS REMAIN...WHERE
WILL THE SURFACE SYSTEM DEVELOP...HOW STRONG WILL IT BE AND HOW
FAR N WILL IT TRACK. LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO WIDE MODEL SOLUTION
SPREAD. ONE THING NOT IN QUESTION...PRECIP WILL MOST LIKELY BE IN
THE FORM OF SNOW...BUT HOW MUCH. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE NEXT FEW
MODEL RUNS TO DETERMINE THAT.

AT THIS POINT...HAVE MENTIONED CHANCE POPS FOR MOST AREAS WITH
THE BEST CHANCE ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS. UPPER
PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE...THOUGH...SO THE LOW SHOULD DEPART
LATE MON OR MON NIGHT.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...
MORE ARCTIC COLD ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRES BUILDS E. LOOKS LIKE THE LOW WILL SHIFT E ON WED...WHICH
MEANS TEMPS MAY START TO REBOUND BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. YET ANOTHER LOW MAY APPROACH WED NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF PRECIP...THOUGH TIMING AND TRACK FOR THIS LOW IS ALSO
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS ABOVE 10 K FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
LIGHT WIND

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...CIGS LOWER OVERNIGHT TO MVFR/IFR IN
OCCASIONAL SNOW. THE SNOW MAY MIX OR CHANGE TO RAIN ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE S COAST AND ESPECIALLY THE CAPE/ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT
AND FRI. SNOW DIMINISHES FRI AFTERNOON IN THE CT VALLEY BUT
CONTINUES ACROSS E NEW ENG. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 25-30 KT AND VFR CIGS DEVELOPING IN THE CT
VALLEY BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING
OF SNOW AND LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING
OF SNOW AND LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR WEST. POSSIBLE IFR TO START
FOR EASTERN LOCALES...BUT WITH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25-35
KNOTS SATURDAY...HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST. LIGHTER WINDS SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. LOW PRES DEVELOPS S OF THE
REGION...BUT TRACK REMAINS UNCERTAIN. TOO EARLY TO HAVE ANY
CONFIDENCE ON VFR OR IFR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WATERS WITH DIMINISHING WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND SUBSIDING SEAS BELOW SCA.

TONIGHT...INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF LOW PRES
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...BUT WIND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA.

FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO W THEN NW DURING FRI
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT DEVELOPING ACROSS RI COASTAL
WATERS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FRI-
SAT...LOW CONFIDENCE SUN-MON.

FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW PRES WILL CROSS THE WATERS. REDUCED VSBYS IN
SNOW MAINLY IN THE EASTERN WATERS EARLY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NW
AND INCREASE. GUSTS UP TO GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. GALE WATCHES ISSUED
FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT BOSTON HARBOR. FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY.

SATURDAY...NW GALES EXPECTED. FREEZING SPRAY DEVELOPING. HIGH
SEAS FORECAST...10-12 FT OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH SAT NIGHT WITH A CORRESPONDING LOWERING OF SEAS.

SUNDAY...EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH BUT REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS...THOUGH SOME GALE GUSTS MAY LINGER ON THE EASTERN OUTER
WATERS EARLY. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE...BUT WILL REMAIN AOA 5 FT
ON THE OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...DEPENDING UPON STRENGTH AND TRACK OF
DEVELOPING LOW PRES S OF THE REGION...COULD SEE WIND GUSTS UP TO
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SEAS WILL REMAIN AOA 5 FT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MAZ004>007-014-026.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ANZ231>234-251.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ235-237.
     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ250-254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ255.
     GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290929
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
429 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A CLIPPER WILL MOVE INTO THE GT LAKES TONIGHT WITH A
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND
MOVING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE FRI INTO FRI EVENING. THIS WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW LATER TONIGHT AND FRI...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRI NIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE REGION. BLUSTERY AND
VERY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER STORM MAY
BRING SNOW TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS ARE GRADUALLY
ERODING AND WILL CLEAR OUT BY DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...A FRIGID
MORNING ACROSS SNE WITH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW ZERO IN SOME
OF COLDER SPOTS.

HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER NEW ENG TODAY...THEN MOVES TO THE EAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY W NEW ENG AS HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVES IN AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. WITH LIGHT
WINDS...EXPECT A NICE RECOVERY IN TEMPS AFTER VERY COLD START.
MAXES WILL REACH THE UPPER 20S TO LOW/MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

DIGGING SHORTWAVE FROM THE UPPER LAKES WILL MOVE SE AND PHASE WITH
ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY TO FORM A NEG TILT
TROF ALONG THE NEW ENG COAST ON FRI. PRIMARY LOW LIFTS NE INTO
NORTHERN NY TONIGHT WHILE SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE SNE
COAST FRI ASSOCD WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND HEIGHT FALLS
MOVING TO THE COAST. ECMWF IS FURTHEST SOUTH WITH THE SECONDARY
LOW AND AS A RESULT HAS MORE QPF THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THE TRACK
OF THE 700 MB LOW WILL BE CRITICAL TO WHERE HEAVIER SNOWFALL SETS
UP.

DEEPENING MOISTURE AND INCREASING MID LEVEL LIFT WILL RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS SNE LATER TONIGHT INTO FRI.
HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY LOW WILL LIKELY WARM
THE BOUNDARY LAYER ENOUGH FOR A MIX OR CHANGEOVER TO RAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST AND ESPECIALLY
CAPE/ISLANDS.

THE 700 MB LOW TRACKS ACROSS SNE WHICH SUGGESTS HEAVIER SNOW WILL
SET UP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...MAINLY N OF THE MASS PIKE WITH
LIGHTER SNOW TO THE SOUTH. THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY LOOKING AT
2-3 INCHES NORTH OF THE PIKE WITH 1-2 INCHES TO THE
SOUTH...EXCEPT LESS THAN AN INCH NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.

EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN THE CT VALLEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING BY LATE IN THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT...

MID LEVEL TROF CLOSES OFF JUST SOUTH OF THE SNE COAST AS COASTAL
LOW INTENSIFIES IN THE GULF OF MAINE. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...ECMWF
IS FURTHEST S WITH THE SFC LOW AND THUS IS MOST BULLISH ON
BRINING A PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW...MAINLY TO N/NE MA. WE USED A
MULTI MODEL BLEND OF QPF AS A BASIS FOR SNOW ACCUM. MODELS ARE
IN AGREEMENT THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WITH
A BAND OF SNOW IN THE COMMA HEAD ROTATING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF
SNE. EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR 2 FOR CENTRAL AND E MA...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS NE MA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THIS AREA FOR THE POTENTIAL OF HIGHER ACCUM PER ECMWF.

WE DECIDED ON A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE
MASS PIKE IN N/NE MA WHERE HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED...FOR THE PERIOD
FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO FRI NIGHT. CURRENT THINKING IS TOTAL
ACCUM THROUGH FRI NIGHT WILL BE 4-6 INCHES N/NE MA WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. LOW PROB THAT WARNING WILL BE NEEDED FOR
NE MA PER ECMWF...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH SO WE OPTED FOR
AN ADVISORY.

TURNING MUCH COLDER FRI NIGHT AS GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP WITH
DEEPENING LOW PRES IN THE GULF OF MAINE. DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND
CHILLS OF 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO IN HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND W
MA...WITH 5 TO 10 BELOW IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR HIGHER TERRAIN IN CENTRAL
AND W MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* SNOW EASTERN AREAS FRI NIGHT DIMINISHES AS LOW EXITS THE AREA
* ARCTIC AIR INVADES NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND ON BRISK NW WINDS
* COASTAL STORM POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT-MON, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE

OVERVIEW...LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO BE OFF THE MAINE COAST
FRI NIGHT. SNOW IS MOST LIKELY EASTERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY COASTAL
AREAS CLOSER TO THIS LOW SUCH AS BOSTON AND POINTS NORTH. THE
SNOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN DURING THE NIGHT FRI NIGHT
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.

ARCTIC AIR WILL USHER INTO NEW ENGLAND BEHIND THIS DEPARTING LOW FOR
THE WEEKEND WITH BLUSTERY NW WINDS AND FRIGID WIND CHILLS. WINDS
CHILL ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FRI NIGHT.

A MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE EASTERN STATES SUN NIGHT
AND MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH REGARDS TO THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH AND THE CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW AND TRACK.
THE LATEST 28.12Z OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW ARE MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND SHOW A WEAKER SURFACE LOW AND WELL EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK. HOWEVER BOTH MODELS DID JUST THE SAME SEVERAL DAYS
BEFORE OUR RECENT BLIZZARD...SO WE CANNOT HAVE ANY DEGREE OF
CONFIDENCE WITH EITHER A HIT OR A MISS THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO USE A MODEL BLEND INCLUDING THEIR ENSEMBLES AS
THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF SPREAD AMONGST THEM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TUE-WED AS THE
SHORTWAVE/LOW MOVES EAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING OVER...BRINGING
QUIET WEATHER MID WEEK. YET ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW OR A WINTRY
MIX ENTERS THE PICTURE BY THU. AN ACTIVE WINTERTIME PATTERN
INDEED!

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS ABOVE 10 K FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
LIGHT WIND

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...CIGS LOWER OVERNIGHT TO MVFR/IFR IN
OCCASIONAL SNOW. THE SNOW MAY MIX OR CHANGE TO RAIN ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE S COAST AND ESPECIALLY THE CAPE/ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT
AND FRI. SNOW DIMINISHES FRI AFTERNOON IN THE CT VALLEY BUT
CONTINUES ACROSS E NEW ENG. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 25-30 KT AND VFR CIGS DEVELOPING IN THE CT
VALLEY BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING
OF SNOW AND LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING
OF SNOW AND LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR WEST. POSSIBLE IFR TO START
FOR EASTERN LOCALES...BUT WITH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
25-35 KNOTS SATURDAY...LIGHTER WINDS SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. COASTAL LOW TRACK HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN. JUST WAY TOO EARLY TO HAVE ANY CONFIDENCE ON VFR OR IFR
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WATERS WITH DIMINISHING WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND SUBSIDING SEAS BELOW SCA.

TONIGHT...INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF LOW PRES
MOVING THROUGH  THE GT LAKES...BUT WIND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SCA.

FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO W THEN NW DURING FRI
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT DEVELOPING ACROSS RI COASTAL
WATERS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FRI-
SAT...LOW CONFIDENCE SUN-MON.

FRIDAY...LOW PRES WILL CROSS THE WATERS. EXPECT REDUCED VSBYS IN
SNOW. EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO NW AND INCREASE FRI NIGHT...WITH
GALES POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS. FREEZING SPRAY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
FRI NIGHT.

SATURDAY...NW GALES EXPECTED WITH POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING SPRAY. HIGH
SEAS FORECAST...10-12 FT OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH SAT NIGHT WITH A CORRESPONDING LOWERING OF SEAS.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS EARLY
SUNDAY...BUT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MUCH WILL DEPEND ON STRENGTH AND TRACK OF A
POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW SO TAKE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST OF WINDS/SEAS
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH A GRAIN OF SALT. A LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST
WOULD SPELL A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO MARINERS...WHILE AN
OFFSHORE/WEAKER TRACK WOULD HAVE MUCH LESS IMPACT. TOO EARLY TO
SAY EITHER WAY...SO WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MAZ004>007-014-026.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...KJC/99
MARINE...KJC/99



000
FXUS61 KBOX 290929
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
429 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A CLIPPER WILL MOVE INTO THE GT LAKES TONIGHT WITH A
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND
MOVING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE FRI INTO FRI EVENING. THIS WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW LATER TONIGHT AND FRI...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRI NIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE REGION. BLUSTERY AND
VERY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER STORM MAY
BRING SNOW TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS ARE GRADUALLY
ERODING AND WILL CLEAR OUT BY DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...A FRIGID
MORNING ACROSS SNE WITH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW ZERO IN SOME
OF COLDER SPOTS.

HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER NEW ENG TODAY...THEN MOVES TO THE EAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY W NEW ENG AS HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVES IN AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. WITH LIGHT
WINDS...EXPECT A NICE RECOVERY IN TEMPS AFTER VERY COLD START.
MAXES WILL REACH THE UPPER 20S TO LOW/MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

DIGGING SHORTWAVE FROM THE UPPER LAKES WILL MOVE SE AND PHASE WITH
ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY TO FORM A NEG TILT
TROF ALONG THE NEW ENG COAST ON FRI. PRIMARY LOW LIFTS NE INTO
NORTHERN NY TONIGHT WHILE SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE SNE
COAST FRI ASSOCD WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND HEIGHT FALLS
MOVING TO THE COAST. ECMWF IS FURTHEST SOUTH WITH THE SECONDARY
LOW AND AS A RESULT HAS MORE QPF THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THE TRACK
OF THE 700 MB LOW WILL BE CRITICAL TO WHERE HEAVIER SNOWFALL SETS
UP.

DEEPENING MOISTURE AND INCREASING MID LEVEL LIFT WILL RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS SNE LATER TONIGHT INTO FRI.
HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY LOW WILL LIKELY WARM
THE BOUNDARY LAYER ENOUGH FOR A MIX OR CHANGEOVER TO RAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST AND ESPECIALLY
CAPE/ISLANDS.

THE 700 MB LOW TRACKS ACROSS SNE WHICH SUGGESTS HEAVIER SNOW WILL
SET UP ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...MAINLY N OF THE MASS PIKE WITH
LIGHTER SNOW TO THE SOUTH. THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY LOOKING AT
2-3 INCHES NORTH OF THE PIKE WITH 1-2 INCHES TO THE
SOUTH...EXCEPT LESS THAN AN INCH NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.

EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN THE CT VALLEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING BY LATE IN THE DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT...

MID LEVEL TROF CLOSES OFF JUST SOUTH OF THE SNE COAST AS COASTAL
LOW INTENSIFIES IN THE GULF OF MAINE. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...ECMWF
IS FURTHEST S WITH THE SFC LOW AND THUS IS MOST BULLISH ON
BRINING A PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW...MAINLY TO N/NE MA. WE USED A
MULTI MODEL BLEND OF QPF AS A BASIS FOR SNOW ACCUM. MODELS ARE
IN AGREEMENT THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WITH
A BAND OF SNOW IN THE COMMA HEAD ROTATING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF
SNE. EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR 2 FOR CENTRAL AND E MA...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS NE MA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THIS AREA FOR THE POTENTIAL OF HIGHER ACCUM PER ECMWF.

WE DECIDED ON A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE
MASS PIKE IN N/NE MA WHERE HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED...FOR THE PERIOD
FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO FRI NIGHT. CURRENT THINKING IS TOTAL
ACCUM THROUGH FRI NIGHT WILL BE 4-6 INCHES N/NE MA WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. LOW PROB THAT WARNING WILL BE NEEDED FOR
NE MA PER ECMWF...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH SO WE OPTED FOR
AN ADVISORY.

TURNING MUCH COLDER FRI NIGHT AS GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP WITH
DEEPENING LOW PRES IN THE GULF OF MAINE. DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND
CHILLS OF 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO IN HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND W
MA...WITH 5 TO 10 BELOW IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR HIGHER TERRAIN IN CENTRAL
AND W MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* SNOW EASTERN AREAS FRI NIGHT DIMINISHES AS LOW EXITS THE AREA
* ARCTIC AIR INVADES NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND ON BRISK NW WINDS
* COASTAL STORM POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT-MON, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE

OVERVIEW...LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO BE OFF THE MAINE COAST
FRI NIGHT. SNOW IS MOST LIKELY EASTERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY COASTAL
AREAS CLOSER TO THIS LOW SUCH AS BOSTON AND POINTS NORTH. THE
SNOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN DURING THE NIGHT FRI NIGHT
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.

ARCTIC AIR WILL USHER INTO NEW ENGLAND BEHIND THIS DEPARTING LOW FOR
THE WEEKEND WITH BLUSTERY NW WINDS AND FRIGID WIND CHILLS. WINDS
CHILL ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FRI NIGHT.

A MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE EASTERN STATES SUN NIGHT
AND MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH REGARDS TO THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH AND THE CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW AND TRACK.
THE LATEST 28.12Z OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW ARE MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND SHOW A WEAKER SURFACE LOW AND WELL EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK. HOWEVER BOTH MODELS DID JUST THE SAME SEVERAL DAYS
BEFORE OUR RECENT BLIZZARD...SO WE CANNOT HAVE ANY DEGREE OF
CONFIDENCE WITH EITHER A HIT OR A MISS THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO USE A MODEL BLEND INCLUDING THEIR ENSEMBLES AS
THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF SPREAD AMONGST THEM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TUE-WED AS THE
SHORTWAVE/LOW MOVES EAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING OVER...BRINGING
QUIET WEATHER MID WEEK. YET ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW OR A WINTRY
MIX ENTERS THE PICTURE BY THU. AN ACTIVE WINTERTIME PATTERN
INDEED!

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS ABOVE 10 K FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
LIGHT WIND

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...CIGS LOWER OVERNIGHT TO MVFR/IFR IN
OCCASIONAL SNOW. THE SNOW MAY MIX OR CHANGE TO RAIN ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE S COAST AND ESPECIALLY THE CAPE/ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT
AND FRI. SNOW DIMINISHES FRI AFTERNOON IN THE CT VALLEY BUT
CONTINUES ACROSS E NEW ENG. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 25-30 KT AND VFR CIGS DEVELOPING IN THE CT
VALLEY BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING
OF SNOW AND LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING
OF SNOW AND LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR WEST. POSSIBLE IFR TO START
FOR EASTERN LOCALES...BUT WITH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
25-35 KNOTS SATURDAY...LIGHTER WINDS SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. COASTAL LOW TRACK HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN. JUST WAY TOO EARLY TO HAVE ANY CONFIDENCE ON VFR OR IFR
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WATERS WITH DIMINISHING WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND SUBSIDING SEAS BELOW SCA.

TONIGHT...INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF LOW PRES
MOVING THROUGH  THE GT LAKES...BUT WIND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SCA.

FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO W THEN NW DURING FRI
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT DEVELOPING ACROSS RI COASTAL
WATERS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FRI-
SAT...LOW CONFIDENCE SUN-MON.

FRIDAY...LOW PRES WILL CROSS THE WATERS. EXPECT REDUCED VSBYS IN
SNOW. EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO NW AND INCREASE FRI NIGHT...WITH
GALES POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS. FREEZING SPRAY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
FRI NIGHT.

SATURDAY...NW GALES EXPECTED WITH POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING SPRAY. HIGH
SEAS FORECAST...10-12 FT OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH SAT NIGHT WITH A CORRESPONDING LOWERING OF SEAS.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS EARLY
SUNDAY...BUT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MUCH WILL DEPEND ON STRENGTH AND TRACK OF A
POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW SO TAKE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST OF WINDS/SEAS
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH A GRAIN OF SALT. A LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST
WOULD SPELL A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO MARINERS...WHILE AN
OFFSHORE/WEAKER TRACK WOULD HAVE MUCH LESS IMPACT. TOO EARLY TO
SAY EITHER WAY...SO WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MAZ004>007-014-026.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...KJC/99
MARINE...KJC/99




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290556
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1256 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...THEN MOVE EAST THURSDAY EVENING.
THIS WILL BRING VERY COLD AIR FOR TONIGHT AND THEN MODERATION ON
THURSDAY. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE PLAINS AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. VERY
COLD CONDITIONS LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER STORM MAY
BRING SNOW TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1250 AM UPDATE...
OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS STILL LOCKED IN ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
BUT CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO SOUTH AND EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING
TROUGH DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE CLEAR. GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL RESULT IN VERY COLD TEMPS WITH LOWS DROPPING BELOW
ZERO IN THE COLDER SPOTS IN W MA AND E MA. WILL MAKE A FEW
MODIFICATIONS TO LOW TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND LOW DEWPOINTS SHOULD RESULT
IN A DRY WEATHER DAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...MOISTURE FROM
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL START STREAMING IN AT HIGH LEVELS. THE
AFTERNOON SHOULD FEATURE INCREASING/THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS WHICH
MAY DIM THE SUN. TEMPERATURES AT 950 MB WILL BE AROUND -5C AND
WOULD SUPPORT SURFACE MAX TEMPS EITHER SIDE OF 30F. CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS MAY INCH A TAD HIGHER TO THE MID 30S.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...

WE CONTINUE TO WATCH DISTURBANCES IN BOTH THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAMS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO PHASE BY THURSDAY AND
EVOLVE INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN USA BY FRIDAY.
THE PRIMARY LOW ACTUALLY RACES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
NIGHT. BUT THE SOUTHERN UPPER JET CURLS AROUND THE ELONGATED
TROUGH AND EXTENDS ITS LEFT EXIT REGION EITHER OVER OR JUST SOUTH
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A COASTAL DEVELOPMENT
OFF OUR COAST ON FRIDAY. A MORE NORTHERLY DEVELOPMENT WOULD FOCUS
LOW LEVEL LIFT AND PRECIPITATION FARTHER NORTH...A MORE SOUTHERLY
DEVELOPMENT WOULD BRING THINGS FARTHER SOUTH. THE GFS SUGGESTS THE
NORTHERN SOLUTION...THE ECMWF AND GGEM DEVELOP THE SECONDARY
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.

WE HAVE OPTED MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN DEVELOPMENT. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT ROUGHLY 0.20 TO 0.30 INCHES OF PCPN DURING THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. THERMAL PROFILES MOSTLY FAVOR SNOW...BUT WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN MIXING IN MIDDAY BEFORE THE SECONDARY DEVELOPS
AND PULLS COLDER AIR IN. THIS SUGGESTS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-5
INCHES WITH THE THE EVENTUAL NEED FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WHEN THE STORM GETS CLOSER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* SNOW EASTERN AREAS FRI NIGHT DIMINISHES AS LOW EXITS THE AREA
* ARCTIC AIR INVADES NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND ON BRISK NW WINDS
* COASTAL STORM POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT-MON, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE

OVERVIEW...LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO BE OFF THE MAINE COAST
FRI NIGHT. SNOW IS MOST LIKELY EASTERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY COASTAL
AREAS CLOSER TO THIS LOW SUCH AS BOSTON AND POINTS NORTH. THE
SNOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN DURING THE NIGHT FRI NIGHT
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.

ARCTIC AIR WILL USHER INTO NEW ENGLAND BEHIND THIS DEPARTING LOW FOR
THE WEEKEND WITH BLUSTERY NW WINDS AND FRIGID WIND CHILLS. WINDS
CHILL ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FRI NIGHT.

A MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE EASTERN STATES SUN NIGHT
AND MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH REGARDS TO THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH AND THE CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW AND TRACK.
THE LATEST 28.12Z OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW ARE MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND SHOW A WEAKER SURFACE LOW AND WELL EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK. HOWEVER BOTH MODELS DID JUST THE SAME SEVERAL DAYS
BEFORE OUR RECENT BLIZZARD...SO WE CANNOT HAVE ANY DEGREE OF
CONFIDENCE WITH EITHER A HIT OR A MISS THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO USE A MODEL BLEND INCLUDING THEIR ENSEMBLES AS
THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF SPREAD AMONGST THEM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TUE-WED AS THE
SHORTWAVE/LOW MOVES EAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING OVER...BRINGING
QUIET WEATHER MID WEEK. YET ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW OR A WINTRY
MIX ENTERS THE PICTURE BY THU. AN ACTIVE WINTERTIME PATTERN
INDEED!

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS ABOVE 10 K FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
LIGHT WIND

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...CIGS LOWER OVERNIGHT TO MVFR/IFR IN
OCCASIONAL SNOW. SOME RAIN MAY MIX IN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST
AND ESPECIALLY THE CAPE/ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND FRI MORNING. SNOW
DIMINISHES FRI AFTERNOON BUT LINGERING ACROSS PORTIONS OF E MA.
WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 25-30 KT
AND VFR CIGS DEVELOPING IN THE CT VALLEY BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING
OF SNOW AND LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING
OF SNOW AND LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR WEST. POSSIBLE IFR TO START
FOR EASTERN LOCALES...BUT WITH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
25-35 KNOTS SATURDAY...LIGHTER WINDS SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. COASTAL LOW TRACK HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN. JUST WAY TOO EARLY TO HAVE ANY CONFIDENCE ON VFR OR IFR
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM/TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

10 PM UPDATE...DROPPED SCA FOR ANZ256 AS SEAS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 5
FT.

TONIGHT...DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WIND. DIMINISHING FREEZING SPRAY
POTENTIAL. STILL ROUGH SEAS WITH 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AS
WELL AS PARTS OF CAPE COD BAY AND MASSACHUSETTS BAY. WE WILL KEEP
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THESE WATERS THROUGH THE
PART OR ALL OF THE NIGHT.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS SHOULD BRING
LIGHT WIND WHICH WILL ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING ON THE OUTER WATERS EAST OF
MASSACHUSETTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MIDWEST WILL
REDEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY. SNOW WILL MOVE IN AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING FRIDAY WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY.
SOUTH WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BY FRIDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO NORTHWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
POTENTIAL FOR 30 KNOT GUSTS BY EVENING.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FRI-
SAT...LOW CONFIDENCE SUN-MON.

FRIDAY...LOW PRES WILL CROSS THE WATERS. EXPECT REDUCED VSBYS IN
SNOW. EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO NW AND INCREASE FRI NIGHT...WITH
GALES POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS. FREEZING SPRAY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
FRI NIGHT.

SATURDAY...NW GALES EXPECTED WITH POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING SPRAY. HIGH
SEAS FORECAST...10-12 FT OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH SAT NIGHT WITH A CORRESPONDING LOWERING OF SEAS.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS EARLY
SUNDAY...BUT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MUCH WILL DEPEND ON STRENGTH AND TRACK OF A
POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW SO TAKE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST OF WINDS/SEAS
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH A GRAIN OF SALT. A LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST
WOULD SPELL A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO MARINERS...WHILE AN
OFFSHORE/WEAKER TRACK WOULD HAVE MUCH LESS IMPACT. TOO EARLY TO
SAY EITHER WAY...SO WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ231-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL/GREGORIA
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...GREGORIA
AVIATION...KJC/SIPPRELL/GREGORIA
MARINE...WTB/KJC/GREGORIA



000
FXUS61 KBOX 290302
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1002 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...THEN MOVE EAST THURSDAY EVENING.
THIS WILL BRING VERY COLD AIR FOR TONIGHT AND THEN MODERATION ON
THURSDAY. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE PLAINS AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. VERY
COLD CONDITIONS LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER STORM MAY
BRING SNOW TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS LOCKED IN ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. EXPECT
GRADUAL CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION CONTINUES
TO LOWER. OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE CLEAR. WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED IN
SPOTS BUT STILL A TAD GUSTY OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND ELEVATED
TERRAIN. WHERE WINDS HAVE GONE CALM TEMPS HAVE PLUMMETED. ALREADY
DOWN TO 5 AT TAN/PYM AND 7 AT FIT. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS...BUT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL RESULT IN LOWS DROPPING
NEAR OR BELOW ZERO IN THE COLDER SPOTS IN W MA AND E MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND LOW DEWPOINTS SHOULD RESULT
IN A DRY WEATHER DAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...MOISTURE FROM
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL START STREAMING IN AT HIGH LEVELS. THE
AFTERNOON SHOULD FEATURE INCREASING/THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS WHICH
MAY DIM THE SUN. TEMPERATURES AT 950 MB WILL BE AROUND -5C AND
WOULD SUPPORT SURFACE MAX TEMPS EITHER SIDE OF 30F. CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS MAY INCH A TAD HIGHER TO THE MID 30S.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...

WE CONTINUE TO WATCH DISTURBANCES IN BOTH THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAMS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO PHASE BY THURSDAY AND
EVOLVE INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN USA BY FRIDAY.
THE PRIMARY LOW ACTUALLY RACES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
NIGHT. BUT THE SOUTHERN UPPER JET CURLS AROUND THE ELONGATED
TROUGH AND EXTENDS ITS LEFT EXIT REGION EITHER OVER OR JUST SOUTH
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A COASTAL DEVELOPMENT
OFF OUR COAST ON FRIDAY. A MORE NORTHERLY DEVELOPMENT WOULD FOCUS
LOW LEVEL LIFT AND PRECIPITATION FARTHER NORTH...A MORE SOUTHERLY
DEVELOPMENT WOULD BRING THINGS FARTHER SOUTH. THE GFS SUGGESTS THE
NORTHERN SOLUTION...THE ECMWF AND GGEM DEVELOP THE SECONDARY
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.

WE HAVE OPTED MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN DEVELOPMENT. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT ROUGHLY 0.20 TO 0.30 INCHES OF PCPN DURING THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. THERMAL PROFILES MOSTLY FAVOR SNOW...BUT WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN MIXING IN MIDDAY BEFORE THE SECONDARY DEVELOPS
AND PULLS COLDER AIR IN. THIS SUGGESTS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-5
INCHES WITH THE THE EVENTUAL NEED FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WHEN THE STORM GETS CLOSER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* SNOW EASTERN AREAS FRI NIGHT DIMINISHES AS LOW EXITS THE AREA
* ARCTIC AIR INVADES NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND ON BRISK NW WINDS
* COASTAL STORM POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT-MON, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE

OVERVIEW...LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO BE OFF THE MAINE COAST
FRI NIGHT. SNOW IS MOST LIKELY EASTERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY COASTAL
AREAS CLOSER TO THIS LOW SUCH AS BOSTON AND POINTS NORTH. THE
SNOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN DURING THE NIGHT FRI NIGHT
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.

ARCTIC AIR WILL USHER INTO NEW ENGLAND BEHIND THIS DEPARTING LOW FOR
THE WEEKEND WITH BLUSTERY NW WINDS AND FRIGID WIND CHILLS. WINDS
CHILL ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FRI NIGHT.

A MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE EASTERN STATES SUN NIGHT
AND MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH REGARDS TO THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH AND THE CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW AND TRACK.
THE LATEST 28.12Z OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW ARE MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND SHOW A WEAKER SURFACE LOW AND WELL EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK. HOWEVER BOTH MODELS DID JUST THE SAME SEVERAL DAYS
BEFORE OUR RECENT BLIZZARD...SO WE CANNOT HAVE ANY DEGREE OF
CONFIDENCE WITH EITHER A HIT OR A MISS THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO USE A MODEL BLEND INCLUDING THEIR ENSEMBLES AS
THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF SPREAD AMONGST THEM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TUE-WED AS THE
SHORTWAVE/LOW MOVES EAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING OVER...BRINGING
QUIET WEATHER MID WEEK. YET ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW OR A WINTRY
MIX ENTERS THE PICTURE BY THU. AN ACTIVE WINTERTIME PATTERN
INDEED!

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

0Z UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE.

TONIGHT...VFR. SKC. LIGHT WIND.

THURSDAY...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET. LIGHT
WIND.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
CIGS LOWER OVERNIGHT TO MVFR/IFR IN SNOW. SOME RAIN MAY MIX WITH
THE SNOW AT ACK AND HYA. PRECIPITATION STARTS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
CONTINUES UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. SKY CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE CT VALLEY AFTER THE WIND SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST...MVFR/IFR SHOULD LINGER IN THE EAST THROUGH EVENING.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR WEST. POSSIBLE IFR TO START
FOR EASTERN LOCALES...BUT WITH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
25-35 KNOTS SATURDAY...LIGHTER WINDS SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. COASTAL LOW TRACK HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN. JUST WAY TOO EARLY TO HAVE ANY CONFIDENCE ON VFR OR IFR
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM/TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

10 PM UPDATE...DROPPED SCA FOR ANZ256 AS SEAS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 5
FT.

TONIGHT...DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WIND. DIMINISHING FREEZING SPRAY
POTENTIAL. STILL ROUGH SEAS WITH 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AS
WELL AS PARTS OF CAPE COD BAY AND MASSACHUSETTS BAY. WE WILL KEEP
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THESE WATERS THROUGH THE
PART OR ALL OF THE NIGHT.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS SHOULD BRING
LIGHT WIND WHICH WILL ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING ON THE OUTER WATERS EAST OF
MASSACHUSETTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MIDWEST WILL
REDEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY. SNOW WILL MOVE IN AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING FRIDAY WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY.
SOUTH WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BY FRIDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO NORTHWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
POTENTIAL FOR 30 KNOT GUSTS BY EVENING.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FRI-
SAT...LOW CONFIDENCE SUN-MON.

FRIDAY...LOW PRES WILL CROSS THE WATERS. EXPECT REDUCED VSBYS IN
SNOW. EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO NW AND INCREASE FRI NIGHT...WITH
GALES POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS. FREEZING SPRAY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
FRI NIGHT.

SATURDAY...NW GALES EXPECTED WITH POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING SPRAY. HIGH
SEAS FORECAST...10-12 FT OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH SAT NIGHT WITH A CORRESPONDING LOWERING OF SEAS.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS EARLY
SUNDAY...BUT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MUCH WILL DEPEND ON STRENGTH AND TRACK OF A
POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW SO TAKE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST OF WINDS/SEAS
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH A GRAIN OF SALT. A LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST
WOULD SPELL A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO MARINERS...WHILE AN
OFFSHORE/WEAKER TRACK WOULD HAVE MUCH LESS IMPACT. TOO EARLY TO
SAY EITHER WAY...SO WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ231-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL/GREGORIA
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...GREGORIA
AVIATION...WTB/SIPPRELL/GREGORIA
MARINE...WTB/KJC/GREGORIA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290302
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1002 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...THEN MOVE EAST THURSDAY EVENING.
THIS WILL BRING VERY COLD AIR FOR TONIGHT AND THEN MODERATION ON
THURSDAY. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE PLAINS AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. VERY
COLD CONDITIONS LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER STORM MAY
BRING SNOW TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS LOCKED IN ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. EXPECT
GRADUAL CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION CONTINUES
TO LOWER. OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE CLEAR. WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED IN
SPOTS BUT STILL A TAD GUSTY OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND ELEVATED
TERRAIN. WHERE WINDS HAVE GONE CALM TEMPS HAVE PLUMMETED. ALREADY
DOWN TO 5 AT TAN/PYM AND 7 AT FIT. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS...BUT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL RESULT IN LOWS DROPPING
NEAR OR BELOW ZERO IN THE COLDER SPOTS IN W MA AND E MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND LOW DEWPOINTS SHOULD RESULT
IN A DRY WEATHER DAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...MOISTURE FROM
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL START STREAMING IN AT HIGH LEVELS. THE
AFTERNOON SHOULD FEATURE INCREASING/THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS WHICH
MAY DIM THE SUN. TEMPERATURES AT 950 MB WILL BE AROUND -5C AND
WOULD SUPPORT SURFACE MAX TEMPS EITHER SIDE OF 30F. CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS MAY INCH A TAD HIGHER TO THE MID 30S.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...

WE CONTINUE TO WATCH DISTURBANCES IN BOTH THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAMS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO PHASE BY THURSDAY AND
EVOLVE INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN USA BY FRIDAY.
THE PRIMARY LOW ACTUALLY RACES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
NIGHT. BUT THE SOUTHERN UPPER JET CURLS AROUND THE ELONGATED
TROUGH AND EXTENDS ITS LEFT EXIT REGION EITHER OVER OR JUST SOUTH
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A COASTAL DEVELOPMENT
OFF OUR COAST ON FRIDAY. A MORE NORTHERLY DEVELOPMENT WOULD FOCUS
LOW LEVEL LIFT AND PRECIPITATION FARTHER NORTH...A MORE SOUTHERLY
DEVELOPMENT WOULD BRING THINGS FARTHER SOUTH. THE GFS SUGGESTS THE
NORTHERN SOLUTION...THE ECMWF AND GGEM DEVELOP THE SECONDARY
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.

WE HAVE OPTED MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN DEVELOPMENT. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT ROUGHLY 0.20 TO 0.30 INCHES OF PCPN DURING THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. THERMAL PROFILES MOSTLY FAVOR SNOW...BUT WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN MIXING IN MIDDAY BEFORE THE SECONDARY DEVELOPS
AND PULLS COLDER AIR IN. THIS SUGGESTS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-5
INCHES WITH THE THE EVENTUAL NEED FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WHEN THE STORM GETS CLOSER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* SNOW EASTERN AREAS FRI NIGHT DIMINISHES AS LOW EXITS THE AREA
* ARCTIC AIR INVADES NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND ON BRISK NW WINDS
* COASTAL STORM POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT-MON, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE

OVERVIEW...LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO BE OFF THE MAINE COAST
FRI NIGHT. SNOW IS MOST LIKELY EASTERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY COASTAL
AREAS CLOSER TO THIS LOW SUCH AS BOSTON AND POINTS NORTH. THE
SNOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN DURING THE NIGHT FRI NIGHT
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.

ARCTIC AIR WILL USHER INTO NEW ENGLAND BEHIND THIS DEPARTING LOW FOR
THE WEEKEND WITH BLUSTERY NW WINDS AND FRIGID WIND CHILLS. WINDS
CHILL ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FRI NIGHT.

A MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE EASTERN STATES SUN NIGHT
AND MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH REGARDS TO THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH AND THE CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW AND TRACK.
THE LATEST 28.12Z OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW ARE MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND SHOW A WEAKER SURFACE LOW AND WELL EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK. HOWEVER BOTH MODELS DID JUST THE SAME SEVERAL DAYS
BEFORE OUR RECENT BLIZZARD...SO WE CANNOT HAVE ANY DEGREE OF
CONFIDENCE WITH EITHER A HIT OR A MISS THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO USE A MODEL BLEND INCLUDING THEIR ENSEMBLES AS
THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF SPREAD AMONGST THEM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TUE-WED AS THE
SHORTWAVE/LOW MOVES EAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING OVER...BRINGING
QUIET WEATHER MID WEEK. YET ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW OR A WINTRY
MIX ENTERS THE PICTURE BY THU. AN ACTIVE WINTERTIME PATTERN
INDEED!

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

0Z UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE.

TONIGHT...VFR. SKC. LIGHT WIND.

THURSDAY...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET. LIGHT
WIND.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
CIGS LOWER OVERNIGHT TO MVFR/IFR IN SNOW. SOME RAIN MAY MIX WITH
THE SNOW AT ACK AND HYA. PRECIPITATION STARTS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
CONTINUES UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. SKY CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE CT VALLEY AFTER THE WIND SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST...MVFR/IFR SHOULD LINGER IN THE EAST THROUGH EVENING.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR WEST. POSSIBLE IFR TO START
FOR EASTERN LOCALES...BUT WITH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
25-35 KNOTS SATURDAY...LIGHTER WINDS SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. COASTAL LOW TRACK HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN. JUST WAY TOO EARLY TO HAVE ANY CONFIDENCE ON VFR OR IFR
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM/TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

10 PM UPDATE...DROPPED SCA FOR ANZ256 AS SEAS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 5
FT.

TONIGHT...DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WIND. DIMINISHING FREEZING SPRAY
POTENTIAL. STILL ROUGH SEAS WITH 5-7 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AS
WELL AS PARTS OF CAPE COD BAY AND MASSACHUSETTS BAY. WE WILL KEEP
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THESE WATERS THROUGH THE
PART OR ALL OF THE NIGHT.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS SHOULD BRING
LIGHT WIND WHICH WILL ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING ON THE OUTER WATERS EAST OF
MASSACHUSETTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MIDWEST WILL
REDEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY. SNOW WILL MOVE IN AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING FRIDAY WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY.
SOUTH WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BY FRIDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO NORTHWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
POTENTIAL FOR 30 KNOT GUSTS BY EVENING.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FRI-
SAT...LOW CONFIDENCE SUN-MON.

FRIDAY...LOW PRES WILL CROSS THE WATERS. EXPECT REDUCED VSBYS IN
SNOW. EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO NW AND INCREASE FRI NIGHT...WITH
GALES POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS. FREEZING SPRAY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
FRI NIGHT.

SATURDAY...NW GALES EXPECTED WITH POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING SPRAY. HIGH
SEAS FORECAST...10-12 FT OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH SAT NIGHT WITH A CORRESPONDING LOWERING OF SEAS.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS EARLY
SUNDAY...BUT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MUCH WILL DEPEND ON STRENGTH AND TRACK OF A
POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW SO TAKE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST OF WINDS/SEAS
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH A GRAIN OF SALT. A LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST
WOULD SPELL A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO MARINERS...WHILE AN
OFFSHORE/WEAKER TRACK WOULD HAVE MUCH LESS IMPACT. TOO EARLY TO
SAY EITHER WAY...SO WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ231-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL/GREGORIA
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...GREGORIA
AVIATION...WTB/SIPPRELL/GREGORIA
MARINE...WTB/KJC/GREGORIA



000
FXUS61 KBOX 282330
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
630 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...THEN MOVE EAST THURSDAY EVENING.
THIS WILL BRING VERY COLD AIR FOR TONIGHT AND THEN MODERATION ON
THURSDAY. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE PLAINS AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. VERY
COLD CONDITIONS LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER STORM MAY
BRING SNOW TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

630 PM UPDATE...

TEMPERATURE CHANGES MADE ACCORDINGLY FOR THE EXPECTATION THAT AS
WINDS BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE W
THAT IN AREAS OF DEEP SNOWPACK THE TEMPERATURE SHOULD QUICKLY
DROP WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECTING LOWS DOWN TO AROUND ZERO
WITH LOCATIONS FALLING A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW-ZERO.

TEMPERATURES ALREADY ON THE DOWNTREND QUICKLY. WITH THE DEEP 20+
INCH SNOWPACK AT OUR OFFICE...IN A LITTLE LESS THAN AN HOUR...THE
TEMPERATURE AT OUR FORECAST OFFICE HAS DROPPED NEARLY 5-DEGREES!

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND LOW DEWPOINTS SHOULD RESULT
IN A DRY WEATHER DAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...MOISTURE FROM
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL START STREAMING IN AT HIGH LEVELS. THE
AFTERNOON SHOULD FEATURE INCREASING/THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS WHICH
MAY DIM THE SUN. TEMPERATURES AT 950 MB WILL BE AROUND -5C AND
WOULD SUPPORT SURFACE MAX TEMPS EITHER SIDE OF 30F. CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS MAY INCH A TAD HIGHER TO THE MID 30S.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...

WE CONTINUE TO WATCH DISTURBANCES IN BOTH THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAMS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO PHASE BY THURSDAY AND
EVOLVE INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN USA BY FRIDAY.
THE PRIMARY LOW ACTUALLY RACES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
NIGHT. BUT THE SOUTHERN UPPER JET CURLS AROUND THE ELONGATED
TROUGH AND EXTENDS ITS LEFT EXIT REGION EITHER OVER OR JUST SOUTH
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A COASTAL DEVELOPMENT
OFF OUR COAST ON FRIDAY. A MORE NORTHERLY DEVELOPMENT WOULD FOCUS
LOW LEVEL LIFT AND PRECIPITATION FARTHER NORTH...A MORE SOUTHERLY
DEVELOPMENT WOULD BRING THINGS FARTHER SOUTH. THE GFS SUGGESTS THE
NORTHERN SOLUTION...THE ECMWF AND GGEM DEVELOP THE SECONDARY
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.

WE HAVE OPTED MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN DEVELOPMENT. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT ROUGHLY 0.20 TO 0.30 INCHES OF PCPN DURING THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. THERMAL PROFILES MOSTLY FAVOR SNOW...BUT WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN MIXING IN MIDDAY BEFORE THE SECONDARY DEVELOPS
AND PULLS COLDER AIR IN. THIS SUGGESTS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-5
INCHES WITH THE THE EVENTUAL NEED FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WHEN THE STORM GETS CLOSER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

* SNOW EASTERN AREAS FRI NIGHT DIMINISHES AS LOW EXITS THE AREA
* ARCTIC AIR INVADES NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND ON BRISK NW WINDS
* COASTAL STORM POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT-MON, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE

OVERVIEW...LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO BE OFF THE MAINE COAST
FRI NIGHT. SNOW IS MOST LIKELY EASTERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY COASTAL
AREAS CLOSER TO THIS LOW SUCH AS BOSTON AND POINTS NORTH. THE
SNOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN DURING THE NIGHT FRI NIGHT
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.

ARCTIC AIR WILL USHER INTO NEW ENGLAND BEHIND THIS DEPARTING LOW FOR
THE WEEKEND WITH BLUSTERY NW WINDS AND FRIGID WIND CHILLS. WINDS
CHILL ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FRI NIGHT.

A MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE EASTERN STATES SUN NIGHT
AND MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH REGARDS TO THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH AND THE CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW AND TRACK.
THE LATEST 28.12Z OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW ARE MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND SHOW A WEAKER SURFACE LOW AND WELL EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK. HOWEVER BOTH MODELS DID JUST THE SAME SEVERAL DAYS
BEFORE OUR RECENT BLIZZARD...SO WE CANNOT HAVE ANY DEGREE OF
CONFIDENCE WITH EITHER A HIT OR A MISS THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO USE A MODEL BLEND INCLUDING THEIR ENSEMBLES AS
THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF SPREAD AMONGST THEM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TUE-WED AS THE
SHORTWAVE/LOW MOVES EAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING OVER...BRINGING
QUIET WEATHER MID WEEK. YET ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW OR A WINTRY
MIX ENTERS THE PICTURE BY THU. AN ACTIVE WINTERTIME PATTERN
INDEED!

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

0Z UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE.

TONIGHT...VFR. SKC. LIGHT WIND.

THURSDAY...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET. LIGHT
WIND.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
CIGS LOWER OVERNIGHT TO MVFR/IFR IN SNOW. SOME RAIN MAY MIX WITH
THE SNOW AT ACK AND HYA. PRECIPITATION STARTS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
CONTINUES UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. SKY CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE CT VALLEY AFTER THE WIND SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST...MVFR/IFR SHOULD LINGER IN THE EAST THROUGH EVENING.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR WEST. POSSIBLE IFR TO START
FOR EASTERN LOCALES...BUT WITH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
25-35 KNOTS SATURDAY...LIGHTER WINDS SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. COASTAL LOW TRACK HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN. JUST WAY TOO EARLY TO HAVE ANY CONFIDENCE ON VFR OR IFR
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM/TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

630 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.

TONIGHT...DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WIND. DIMINISHING FREEZING SPRAY
POTENTIAL. GUSTS AT LAND STATIONS ARE BELOW 25 KNOTS. BUOY 013
EAST OF BOSTON HAD GUSTS TO 23 KNOTS AT 3 PM. STILL ROUGH SEAS
WITH 5-8 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AS WELL AS PARTS OF CAPE COD BAY
AND MASSACHUSETTS BAY. WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN
EFFECT FOR THESE WATERS THROUGH THE PART OR ALL OF THE NIGHT.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS SHOULD BRING
LIGHT WIND WHICH WILL ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING ON THE OUTER WATERS EAST OF
MASSACHUSETTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MIDWEST WILL
REDEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY. SNOW WILL MOVE IN AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING FRIDAY WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY.
SOUTH WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BY FRIDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO NORTHWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
POTENTIAL FOR 30 KNOT GUSTS BY EVENING.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FRI-
SAT...LOW CONFIDENCE SUN-MON.

FRIDAY...LOW PRES WILL CROSS THE WATERS. EXPECT REDUCED VSBYS IN
SNOW. EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO NW AND INCREASE FRI NIGHT...WITH
GALES POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS. FREEZING SPRAY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
FRI NIGHT.

SATURDAY...NW GALES EXPECTED WITH POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING SPRAY. HIGH
SEAS FORECAST...10-12 FT OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH SAT NIGHT WITH A CORRESPONDING LOWERING OF SEAS.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS EARLY
SUNDAY...BUT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MUCH WILL DEPEND ON STRENGTH AND TRACK OF A
POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW SO TAKE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST OF WINDS/SEAS
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH A GRAIN OF SALT. A LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST
WOULD SPELL A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO MARINERS...WHILE AN
OFFSHORE/WEAKER TRACK WOULD HAVE MUCH LESS IMPACT. TOO EARLY TO
SAY EITHER WAY...SO WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ231-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL/GREGORIA
NEAR TERM...WTB/SIPPRELL/GREGORIA
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...GREGORIA
AVIATION...WTB/SIPPRELL/GREGORIA
MARINE...WTB/GREGORIA



000
FXUS61 KBOX 282330
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
630 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...THEN MOVE EAST THURSDAY EVENING.
THIS WILL BRING VERY COLD AIR FOR TONIGHT AND THEN MODERATION ON
THURSDAY. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE PLAINS AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. VERY
COLD CONDITIONS LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER STORM MAY
BRING SNOW TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

630 PM UPDATE...

TEMPERATURE CHANGES MADE ACCORDINGLY FOR THE EXPECTATION THAT AS
WINDS BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE W
THAT IN AREAS OF DEEP SNOWPACK THE TEMPERATURE SHOULD QUICKLY
DROP WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECTING LOWS DOWN TO AROUND ZERO
WITH LOCATIONS FALLING A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW-ZERO.

TEMPERATURES ALREADY ON THE DOWNTREND QUICKLY. WITH THE DEEP 20+
INCH SNOWPACK AT OUR OFFICE...IN A LITTLE LESS THAN AN HOUR...THE
TEMPERATURE AT OUR FORECAST OFFICE HAS DROPPED NEARLY 5-DEGREES!

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND LOW DEWPOINTS SHOULD RESULT
IN A DRY WEATHER DAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...MOISTURE FROM
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL START STREAMING IN AT HIGH LEVELS. THE
AFTERNOON SHOULD FEATURE INCREASING/THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS WHICH
MAY DIM THE SUN. TEMPERATURES AT 950 MB WILL BE AROUND -5C AND
WOULD SUPPORT SURFACE MAX TEMPS EITHER SIDE OF 30F. CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS MAY INCH A TAD HIGHER TO THE MID 30S.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...

WE CONTINUE TO WATCH DISTURBANCES IN BOTH THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAMS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO PHASE BY THURSDAY AND
EVOLVE INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN USA BY FRIDAY.
THE PRIMARY LOW ACTUALLY RACES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
NIGHT. BUT THE SOUTHERN UPPER JET CURLS AROUND THE ELONGATED
TROUGH AND EXTENDS ITS LEFT EXIT REGION EITHER OVER OR JUST SOUTH
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A COASTAL DEVELOPMENT
OFF OUR COAST ON FRIDAY. A MORE NORTHERLY DEVELOPMENT WOULD FOCUS
LOW LEVEL LIFT AND PRECIPITATION FARTHER NORTH...A MORE SOUTHERLY
DEVELOPMENT WOULD BRING THINGS FARTHER SOUTH. THE GFS SUGGESTS THE
NORTHERN SOLUTION...THE ECMWF AND GGEM DEVELOP THE SECONDARY
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.

WE HAVE OPTED MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN DEVELOPMENT. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT ROUGHLY 0.20 TO 0.30 INCHES OF PCPN DURING THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. THERMAL PROFILES MOSTLY FAVOR SNOW...BUT WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN MIXING IN MIDDAY BEFORE THE SECONDARY DEVELOPS
AND PULLS COLDER AIR IN. THIS SUGGESTS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-5
INCHES WITH THE THE EVENTUAL NEED FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WHEN THE STORM GETS CLOSER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

* SNOW EASTERN AREAS FRI NIGHT DIMINISHES AS LOW EXITS THE AREA
* ARCTIC AIR INVADES NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND ON BRISK NW WINDS
* COASTAL STORM POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT-MON, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE

OVERVIEW...LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO BE OFF THE MAINE COAST
FRI NIGHT. SNOW IS MOST LIKELY EASTERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY COASTAL
AREAS CLOSER TO THIS LOW SUCH AS BOSTON AND POINTS NORTH. THE
SNOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN DURING THE NIGHT FRI NIGHT
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.

ARCTIC AIR WILL USHER INTO NEW ENGLAND BEHIND THIS DEPARTING LOW FOR
THE WEEKEND WITH BLUSTERY NW WINDS AND FRIGID WIND CHILLS. WINDS
CHILL ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FRI NIGHT.

A MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE EASTERN STATES SUN NIGHT
AND MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH REGARDS TO THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH AND THE CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW AND TRACK.
THE LATEST 28.12Z OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW ARE MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND SHOW A WEAKER SURFACE LOW AND WELL EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK. HOWEVER BOTH MODELS DID JUST THE SAME SEVERAL DAYS
BEFORE OUR RECENT BLIZZARD...SO WE CANNOT HAVE ANY DEGREE OF
CONFIDENCE WITH EITHER A HIT OR A MISS THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO USE A MODEL BLEND INCLUDING THEIR ENSEMBLES AS
THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF SPREAD AMONGST THEM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TUE-WED AS THE
SHORTWAVE/LOW MOVES EAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING OVER...BRINGING
QUIET WEATHER MID WEEK. YET ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW OR A WINTRY
MIX ENTERS THE PICTURE BY THU. AN ACTIVE WINTERTIME PATTERN
INDEED!

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

0Z UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE.

TONIGHT...VFR. SKC. LIGHT WIND.

THURSDAY...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET. LIGHT
WIND.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
CIGS LOWER OVERNIGHT TO MVFR/IFR IN SNOW. SOME RAIN MAY MIX WITH
THE SNOW AT ACK AND HYA. PRECIPITATION STARTS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
CONTINUES UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. SKY CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE CT VALLEY AFTER THE WIND SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST...MVFR/IFR SHOULD LINGER IN THE EAST THROUGH EVENING.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR WEST. POSSIBLE IFR TO START
FOR EASTERN LOCALES...BUT WITH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
25-35 KNOTS SATURDAY...LIGHTER WINDS SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. COASTAL LOW TRACK HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN. JUST WAY TOO EARLY TO HAVE ANY CONFIDENCE ON VFR OR IFR
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM/TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

630 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.

TONIGHT...DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WIND. DIMINISHING FREEZING SPRAY
POTENTIAL. GUSTS AT LAND STATIONS ARE BELOW 25 KNOTS. BUOY 013
EAST OF BOSTON HAD GUSTS TO 23 KNOTS AT 3 PM. STILL ROUGH SEAS
WITH 5-8 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AS WELL AS PARTS OF CAPE COD BAY
AND MASSACHUSETTS BAY. WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN
EFFECT FOR THESE WATERS THROUGH THE PART OR ALL OF THE NIGHT.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS SHOULD BRING
LIGHT WIND WHICH WILL ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING ON THE OUTER WATERS EAST OF
MASSACHUSETTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MIDWEST WILL
REDEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY. SNOW WILL MOVE IN AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING FRIDAY WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY.
SOUTH WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BY FRIDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO NORTHWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
POTENTIAL FOR 30 KNOT GUSTS BY EVENING.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FRI-
SAT...LOW CONFIDENCE SUN-MON.

FRIDAY...LOW PRES WILL CROSS THE WATERS. EXPECT REDUCED VSBYS IN
SNOW. EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO NW AND INCREASE FRI NIGHT...WITH
GALES POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS. FREEZING SPRAY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
FRI NIGHT.

SATURDAY...NW GALES EXPECTED WITH POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING SPRAY. HIGH
SEAS FORECAST...10-12 FT OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH SAT NIGHT WITH A CORRESPONDING LOWERING OF SEAS.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS EARLY
SUNDAY...BUT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MUCH WILL DEPEND ON STRENGTH AND TRACK OF A
POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW SO TAKE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST OF WINDS/SEAS
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH A GRAIN OF SALT. A LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST
WOULD SPELL A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO MARINERS...WHILE AN
OFFSHORE/WEAKER TRACK WOULD HAVE MUCH LESS IMPACT. TOO EARLY TO
SAY EITHER WAY...SO WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ231-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL/GREGORIA
NEAR TERM...WTB/SIPPRELL/GREGORIA
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...GREGORIA
AVIATION...WTB/SIPPRELL/GREGORIA
MARINE...WTB/GREGORIA



000
FXUS61 KBOX 282330
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
630 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...THEN MOVE EAST THURSDAY EVENING.
THIS WILL BRING VERY COLD AIR FOR TONIGHT AND THEN MODERATION ON
THURSDAY. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE PLAINS AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. VERY
COLD CONDITIONS LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER STORM MAY
BRING SNOW TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

630 PM UPDATE...

TEMPERATURE CHANGES MADE ACCORDINGLY FOR THE EXPECTATION THAT AS
WINDS BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE W
THAT IN AREAS OF DEEP SNOWPACK THE TEMPERATURE SHOULD QUICKLY
DROP WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECTING LOWS DOWN TO AROUND ZERO
WITH LOCATIONS FALLING A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW-ZERO.

TEMPERATURES ALREADY ON THE DOWNTREND QUICKLY. WITH THE DEEP 20+
INCH SNOWPACK AT OUR OFFICE...IN A LITTLE LESS THAN AN HOUR...THE
TEMPERATURE AT OUR FORECAST OFFICE HAS DROPPED NEARLY 5-DEGREES!

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND LOW DEWPOINTS SHOULD RESULT
IN A DRY WEATHER DAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...MOISTURE FROM
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL START STREAMING IN AT HIGH LEVELS. THE
AFTERNOON SHOULD FEATURE INCREASING/THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS WHICH
MAY DIM THE SUN. TEMPERATURES AT 950 MB WILL BE AROUND -5C AND
WOULD SUPPORT SURFACE MAX TEMPS EITHER SIDE OF 30F. CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS MAY INCH A TAD HIGHER TO THE MID 30S.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...

WE CONTINUE TO WATCH DISTURBANCES IN BOTH THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAMS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO PHASE BY THURSDAY AND
EVOLVE INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN USA BY FRIDAY.
THE PRIMARY LOW ACTUALLY RACES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
NIGHT. BUT THE SOUTHERN UPPER JET CURLS AROUND THE ELONGATED
TROUGH AND EXTENDS ITS LEFT EXIT REGION EITHER OVER OR JUST SOUTH
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A COASTAL DEVELOPMENT
OFF OUR COAST ON FRIDAY. A MORE NORTHERLY DEVELOPMENT WOULD FOCUS
LOW LEVEL LIFT AND PRECIPITATION FARTHER NORTH...A MORE SOUTHERLY
DEVELOPMENT WOULD BRING THINGS FARTHER SOUTH. THE GFS SUGGESTS THE
NORTHERN SOLUTION...THE ECMWF AND GGEM DEVELOP THE SECONDARY
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.

WE HAVE OPTED MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN DEVELOPMENT. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT ROUGHLY 0.20 TO 0.30 INCHES OF PCPN DURING THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. THERMAL PROFILES MOSTLY FAVOR SNOW...BUT WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN MIXING IN MIDDAY BEFORE THE SECONDARY DEVELOPS
AND PULLS COLDER AIR IN. THIS SUGGESTS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-5
INCHES WITH THE THE EVENTUAL NEED FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WHEN THE STORM GETS CLOSER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

* SNOW EASTERN AREAS FRI NIGHT DIMINISHES AS LOW EXITS THE AREA
* ARCTIC AIR INVADES NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND ON BRISK NW WINDS
* COASTAL STORM POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT-MON, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE

OVERVIEW...LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO BE OFF THE MAINE COAST
FRI NIGHT. SNOW IS MOST LIKELY EASTERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY COASTAL
AREAS CLOSER TO THIS LOW SUCH AS BOSTON AND POINTS NORTH. THE
SNOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN DURING THE NIGHT FRI NIGHT
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.

ARCTIC AIR WILL USHER INTO NEW ENGLAND BEHIND THIS DEPARTING LOW FOR
THE WEEKEND WITH BLUSTERY NW WINDS AND FRIGID WIND CHILLS. WINDS
CHILL ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FRI NIGHT.

A MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE EASTERN STATES SUN NIGHT
AND MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH REGARDS TO THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH AND THE CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW AND TRACK.
THE LATEST 28.12Z OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW ARE MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND SHOW A WEAKER SURFACE LOW AND WELL EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK. HOWEVER BOTH MODELS DID JUST THE SAME SEVERAL DAYS
BEFORE OUR RECENT BLIZZARD...SO WE CANNOT HAVE ANY DEGREE OF
CONFIDENCE WITH EITHER A HIT OR A MISS THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO USE A MODEL BLEND INCLUDING THEIR ENSEMBLES AS
THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF SPREAD AMONGST THEM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TUE-WED AS THE
SHORTWAVE/LOW MOVES EAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING OVER...BRINGING
QUIET WEATHER MID WEEK. YET ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW OR A WINTRY
MIX ENTERS THE PICTURE BY THU. AN ACTIVE WINTERTIME PATTERN
INDEED!

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

0Z UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE.

TONIGHT...VFR. SKC. LIGHT WIND.

THURSDAY...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET. LIGHT
WIND.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
CIGS LOWER OVERNIGHT TO MVFR/IFR IN SNOW. SOME RAIN MAY MIX WITH
THE SNOW AT ACK AND HYA. PRECIPITATION STARTS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
CONTINUES UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. SKY CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE CT VALLEY AFTER THE WIND SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST...MVFR/IFR SHOULD LINGER IN THE EAST THROUGH EVENING.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR WEST. POSSIBLE IFR TO START
FOR EASTERN LOCALES...BUT WITH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
25-35 KNOTS SATURDAY...LIGHTER WINDS SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. COASTAL LOW TRACK HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN. JUST WAY TOO EARLY TO HAVE ANY CONFIDENCE ON VFR OR IFR
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM/TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

630 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.

TONIGHT...DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WIND. DIMINISHING FREEZING SPRAY
POTENTIAL. GUSTS AT LAND STATIONS ARE BELOW 25 KNOTS. BUOY 013
EAST OF BOSTON HAD GUSTS TO 23 KNOTS AT 3 PM. STILL ROUGH SEAS
WITH 5-8 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AS WELL AS PARTS OF CAPE COD BAY
AND MASSACHUSETTS BAY. WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN
EFFECT FOR THESE WATERS THROUGH THE PART OR ALL OF THE NIGHT.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS SHOULD BRING
LIGHT WIND WHICH WILL ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING ON THE OUTER WATERS EAST OF
MASSACHUSETTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MIDWEST WILL
REDEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY. SNOW WILL MOVE IN AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING FRIDAY WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY.
SOUTH WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BY FRIDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO NORTHWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
POTENTIAL FOR 30 KNOT GUSTS BY EVENING.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FRI-
SAT...LOW CONFIDENCE SUN-MON.

FRIDAY...LOW PRES WILL CROSS THE WATERS. EXPECT REDUCED VSBYS IN
SNOW. EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO NW AND INCREASE FRI NIGHT...WITH
GALES POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS. FREEZING SPRAY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
FRI NIGHT.

SATURDAY...NW GALES EXPECTED WITH POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING SPRAY. HIGH
SEAS FORECAST...10-12 FT OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH SAT NIGHT WITH A CORRESPONDING LOWERING OF SEAS.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS EARLY
SUNDAY...BUT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MUCH WILL DEPEND ON STRENGTH AND TRACK OF A
POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW SO TAKE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST OF WINDS/SEAS
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH A GRAIN OF SALT. A LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST
WOULD SPELL A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO MARINERS...WHILE AN
OFFSHORE/WEAKER TRACK WOULD HAVE MUCH LESS IMPACT. TOO EARLY TO
SAY EITHER WAY...SO WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ231-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL/GREGORIA
NEAR TERM...WTB/SIPPRELL/GREGORIA
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...GREGORIA
AVIATION...WTB/SIPPRELL/GREGORIA
MARINE...WTB/GREGORIA



000
FXUS61 KBOX 282330
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
630 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...THEN MOVE EAST THURSDAY EVENING.
THIS WILL BRING VERY COLD AIR FOR TONIGHT AND THEN MODERATION ON
THURSDAY. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE PLAINS AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. VERY
COLD CONDITIONS LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER STORM MAY
BRING SNOW TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

630 PM UPDATE...

TEMPERATURE CHANGES MADE ACCORDINGLY FOR THE EXPECTATION THAT AS
WINDS BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE W
THAT IN AREAS OF DEEP SNOWPACK THE TEMPERATURE SHOULD QUICKLY
DROP WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECTING LOWS DOWN TO AROUND ZERO
WITH LOCATIONS FALLING A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW-ZERO.

TEMPERATURES ALREADY ON THE DOWNTREND QUICKLY. WITH THE DEEP 20+
INCH SNOWPACK AT OUR OFFICE...IN A LITTLE LESS THAN AN HOUR...THE
TEMPERATURE AT OUR FORECAST OFFICE HAS DROPPED NEARLY 5-DEGREES!

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND LOW DEWPOINTS SHOULD RESULT
IN A DRY WEATHER DAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...MOISTURE FROM
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL START STREAMING IN AT HIGH LEVELS. THE
AFTERNOON SHOULD FEATURE INCREASING/THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS WHICH
MAY DIM THE SUN. TEMPERATURES AT 950 MB WILL BE AROUND -5C AND
WOULD SUPPORT SURFACE MAX TEMPS EITHER SIDE OF 30F. CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS MAY INCH A TAD HIGHER TO THE MID 30S.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...

WE CONTINUE TO WATCH DISTURBANCES IN BOTH THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAMS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO PHASE BY THURSDAY AND
EVOLVE INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN USA BY FRIDAY.
THE PRIMARY LOW ACTUALLY RACES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
NIGHT. BUT THE SOUTHERN UPPER JET CURLS AROUND THE ELONGATED
TROUGH AND EXTENDS ITS LEFT EXIT REGION EITHER OVER OR JUST SOUTH
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A COASTAL DEVELOPMENT
OFF OUR COAST ON FRIDAY. A MORE NORTHERLY DEVELOPMENT WOULD FOCUS
LOW LEVEL LIFT AND PRECIPITATION FARTHER NORTH...A MORE SOUTHERLY
DEVELOPMENT WOULD BRING THINGS FARTHER SOUTH. THE GFS SUGGESTS THE
NORTHERN SOLUTION...THE ECMWF AND GGEM DEVELOP THE SECONDARY
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.

WE HAVE OPTED MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN DEVELOPMENT. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT ROUGHLY 0.20 TO 0.30 INCHES OF PCPN DURING THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. THERMAL PROFILES MOSTLY FAVOR SNOW...BUT WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN MIXING IN MIDDAY BEFORE THE SECONDARY DEVELOPS
AND PULLS COLDER AIR IN. THIS SUGGESTS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-5
INCHES WITH THE THE EVENTUAL NEED FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WHEN THE STORM GETS CLOSER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

* SNOW EASTERN AREAS FRI NIGHT DIMINISHES AS LOW EXITS THE AREA
* ARCTIC AIR INVADES NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND ON BRISK NW WINDS
* COASTAL STORM POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT-MON, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE

OVERVIEW...LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO BE OFF THE MAINE COAST
FRI NIGHT. SNOW IS MOST LIKELY EASTERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY COASTAL
AREAS CLOSER TO THIS LOW SUCH AS BOSTON AND POINTS NORTH. THE
SNOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN DURING THE NIGHT FRI NIGHT
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.

ARCTIC AIR WILL USHER INTO NEW ENGLAND BEHIND THIS DEPARTING LOW FOR
THE WEEKEND WITH BLUSTERY NW WINDS AND FRIGID WIND CHILLS. WINDS
CHILL ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FRI NIGHT.

A MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE EASTERN STATES SUN NIGHT
AND MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH REGARDS TO THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH AND THE CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW AND TRACK.
THE LATEST 28.12Z OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW ARE MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND SHOW A WEAKER SURFACE LOW AND WELL EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK. HOWEVER BOTH MODELS DID JUST THE SAME SEVERAL DAYS
BEFORE OUR RECENT BLIZZARD...SO WE CANNOT HAVE ANY DEGREE OF
CONFIDENCE WITH EITHER A HIT OR A MISS THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO USE A MODEL BLEND INCLUDING THEIR ENSEMBLES AS
THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF SPREAD AMONGST THEM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TUE-WED AS THE
SHORTWAVE/LOW MOVES EAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING OVER...BRINGING
QUIET WEATHER MID WEEK. YET ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW OR A WINTRY
MIX ENTERS THE PICTURE BY THU. AN ACTIVE WINTERTIME PATTERN
INDEED!

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

0Z UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE.

TONIGHT...VFR. SKC. LIGHT WIND.

THURSDAY...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET. LIGHT
WIND.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
CIGS LOWER OVERNIGHT TO MVFR/IFR IN SNOW. SOME RAIN MAY MIX WITH
THE SNOW AT ACK AND HYA. PRECIPITATION STARTS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
CONTINUES UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. SKY CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE CT VALLEY AFTER THE WIND SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST...MVFR/IFR SHOULD LINGER IN THE EAST THROUGH EVENING.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR WEST. POSSIBLE IFR TO START
FOR EASTERN LOCALES...BUT WITH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
25-35 KNOTS SATURDAY...LIGHTER WINDS SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. COASTAL LOW TRACK HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN. JUST WAY TOO EARLY TO HAVE ANY CONFIDENCE ON VFR OR IFR
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM/TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

630 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.

TONIGHT...DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WIND. DIMINISHING FREEZING SPRAY
POTENTIAL. GUSTS AT LAND STATIONS ARE BELOW 25 KNOTS. BUOY 013
EAST OF BOSTON HAD GUSTS TO 23 KNOTS AT 3 PM. STILL ROUGH SEAS
WITH 5-8 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AS WELL AS PARTS OF CAPE COD BAY
AND MASSACHUSETTS BAY. WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN
EFFECT FOR THESE WATERS THROUGH THE PART OR ALL OF THE NIGHT.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS SHOULD BRING
LIGHT WIND WHICH WILL ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING ON THE OUTER WATERS EAST OF
MASSACHUSETTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MIDWEST WILL
REDEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY. SNOW WILL MOVE IN AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING FRIDAY WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY.
SOUTH WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BY FRIDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO NORTHWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
POTENTIAL FOR 30 KNOT GUSTS BY EVENING.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FRI-
SAT...LOW CONFIDENCE SUN-MON.

FRIDAY...LOW PRES WILL CROSS THE WATERS. EXPECT REDUCED VSBYS IN
SNOW. EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO NW AND INCREASE FRI NIGHT...WITH
GALES POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS. FREEZING SPRAY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
FRI NIGHT.

SATURDAY...NW GALES EXPECTED WITH POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING SPRAY. HIGH
SEAS FORECAST...10-12 FT OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH SAT NIGHT WITH A CORRESPONDING LOWERING OF SEAS.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS EARLY
SUNDAY...BUT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MUCH WILL DEPEND ON STRENGTH AND TRACK OF A
POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW SO TAKE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST OF WINDS/SEAS
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH A GRAIN OF SALT. A LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST
WOULD SPELL A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO MARINERS...WHILE AN
OFFSHORE/WEAKER TRACK WOULD HAVE MUCH LESS IMPACT. TOO EARLY TO
SAY EITHER WAY...SO WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ231-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WTB/SIPPRELL/GREGORIA
NEAR TERM...WTB/SIPPRELL/GREGORIA
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...GREGORIA
AVIATION...WTB/SIPPRELL/GREGORIA
MARINE...WTB/GREGORIA



000
FXUS61 KBOX 282046
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
346 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...THEN MOVE EAST THURSDAY EVENING.
THIS WILL BRING VERY COLD AIR FOR TONIGHT AND THEN MODERATION ON
THURSDAY. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE PLAINS AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. VERY
COLD CONDITIONS LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER STORM MAY
BRING SNOW TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. PRESSURE RISES ARE
SLOWING TO NEAR ZERO AND SO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE
RELAXING THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...PRIME FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE
FRESH AND DEEP SNOW COVER SHOULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL REFRIDGERATING
FROM BELOW. BECAUSE OF THIS...WE HAVE SUBTRACTED 2-4 DEGREES FROM
MODEL MIN TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND LOW DEWPOINTS SHOULD
RESULT IN A DRY WEATHER DAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...MOISTURE
FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL START STREAMING IN AT HIGH LEVELS. THE
AFTERNOON SHOULD FEATURE INCREASING/THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS WHICH
MAY DIM THE SUN. TEMPERATURES AT 950 MB WILL BE AROUND -5C AND
WOULD SUPPORT SURFACE MAX TEMPS EITHER SIDE OF 30F. CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS MAY INCH A TAD HIGHER TO THE MID 30S.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...

WE CONTINUE TO WATCH DISTURBANCES IN BOTH THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAMS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO PHASE BY THURSDAY AND
EVOLVE INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN USA BY FRIDAY.
THE PRIMARY LOW ACTUALLY RACES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
NIGHT. BUT THE SOUTHERN UPPER JET CURLS AROUND THE ELONGATED
TROUGH AND EXTENDS ITS LEFT EXIT REGION EITHER OVER OR JUST SOUTH
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A COASTAL DEVELOPMENT
OFF OUR COAST ON FRIDAY. A MORE NORTHERLY DEVELOPMENT WOULD FOCUS
LOW LEVEL LIFT AND PRECIPITATION FARTHER NORTH...A MORE SOUTHERLY
DEVELOPMENT WOULD BRING THINGS FARTHER SOUTH. THE GFS SUGGESTS THE
NORTHERN SOLUTION...THE ECMWF AND GGEM DEVELOP THE SECONDARY
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.

WE HAVE OPTED MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN DEVELOPMENT. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT ROUGHLY 0.20 TO 0.30 INCHES OF PCPN DURING THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. THERMAL PROFILES MOSTLY FAVOR SNOW...BUT WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN MIXING IN MIDDAY BEFORE THE SECONDARY DEVELOPS
AND PULLS COLDER AIR IN. THIS SUGGESTS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-5
INCHES WITH THE THE EVENTUAL NEED FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WHEN THE STORM GETS CLOSER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

* SNOW EASTERN AREAS FRI NIGHT DIMINISHES AS LOW EXITS THE AREA
* ARCTIC AIR INVADES NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND ON BRISK NW WINDS
* COASTAL STORM POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT-MON, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE

OVERVIEW...LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO BE OFF THE MAINE COAST
FRI NIGHT. SNOW IS MOST LIKELY EASTERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY COASTAL
AREAS CLOSER TO THIS LOW SUCH AS BOSTON AND POINTS NORTH. THE
SNOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN DURING THE NIGHT FRI NIGHT
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.

ARCTIC AIR WILL USHER INTO NEW ENGLAND BEHIND THIS DEPARTING LOW FOR
THE WEEKEND WITH BLUSTERY NW WINDS AND FRIGID WIND CHILLS. WINDS
CHILL ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FRI NIGHT.

A MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE EASTERN STATES SUN NIGHT
AND MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH REGARDS TO THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH AND THE CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW AND TRACK.
THE LATEST 28.12Z OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW ARE MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND SHOW A WEAKER SURFACE LOW AND WELL EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK. HOWEVER BOTH MODELS DID JUST THE SAME SEVERAL DAYS
BEFORE OUR RECENT BLIZZARD...SO WE CANNOT HAVE ANY DEGREE OF
CONFIDENCE WITH EITHER A HIT OR A MISS THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO USE A MODEL BLEND INCLUDING THEIR ENSEMBLES AS
THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF SPREAD AMONGST THEM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TUE-WED AS THE
SHORTWAVE/LOW MOVES EAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING OVER...BRINGING
QUIET WEATHER MID WEEK. YET ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW OR A WINTRY
MIX ENTERS THE PICTURE BY THU. AN ACTIVE WINTERTIME PATTERN
INDEED!

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THIS EVENING...VFR AND CLEAR. DIMINISHING WIND. LINGERING MVFR
CIGS OVER THE MID AND OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET WILL MOVE OFF BY 7
OR 8 PM.

TONIGHT...VFR. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND.

THURSDAY...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET. LIGHT
WIND.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
CIGS LOWER OVERNIGHT TO MVFR/IFR IN SNOW. SOME RAIN MAY MIX WITH
THE SNOW AT ACK AND HYA. PRECIPITATION STARTS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
CONTINUES UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. SKY CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE CT VALLEY AFTER THE WIND SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST...MVFR/IFR SHOULD LINGER IN THE EAST THROUGH EVENING.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR WEST. POSSIBLE IFR TO START
FOR EASTERN LOCALES...BUT WITH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
25-35 KNOTS SATURDAY...LIGHTER WINDS SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. COASTAL LOW TRACK HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN. JUST WAY TOO EARLY TO HAVE ANY CONFIDENCE ON VFR OR IFR
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM/TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

TONIGHT...DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WIND. DIMINISHING FREEZING SPRAY
POTENTIAL. GUSTS AT LAND STATIONS ARE BELOW 25 KNOTS. BUOY 013
EAST OF BOSTON HAD GUSTS TO 23 KNOTS AT 3 PM. STILL ROUGH SEAS
WITH 5-8 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AS WELL AS PARTS OF CAPE COD BAY
AND MASSACHUSETTS BAY. WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN
EFFECT FOR THESE WATERS THROUGH THE PART OR ALL OF THE NIGHT.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS SHOULD BRING
LIGHT WIND WHICH WILL ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING ON THE OUTER WATERS EAST OF
MASSACHUSETTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MIDWEST WILL
REDEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY. SNOW WILL MOVE IN AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING FRIDAY WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY.
SOUTH WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BY FRIDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO NORTHWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
POTENTIAL FOR 30 KNOT GUSTS BY EVENING.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FRI-
SAT...LOW CONFIDENCE SUN-MON.

FRIDAY...LOW PRES WILL CROSS THE WATERS. EXPECT REDUCED VSBYS IN
SNOW. EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO NW AND INCREASE FRI NIGHT...WITH
GALES POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS. FREEZING SPRAY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
FRI NIGHT.

SATURDAY...NW GALES EXPECTED WITH POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING SPRAY. HIGH
SEAS FORECAST...10-12 FT OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH SAT NIGHT WITH A CORRESPONDING LOWERING OF SEAS.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS EARLY
SUNDAY...BUT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MUCH WILL DEPEND ON STRENGTH AND TRACK OF A
POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW SO TAKE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST OF WINDS/SEAS
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH A GRAIN OF SALT. A LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST
WOULD SPELL A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO MARINERS...WHILE AN
OFFSHORE/WEAKER TRACK WOULD HAVE MUCH LESS IMPACT. TOO EARLY TO
SAY EITHER WAY...SO WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ231-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WTB/DG
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DG/JWD
AVIATION...WTB/DG
MARINE...WTB/DG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 282046
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
346 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...THEN MOVE EAST THURSDAY EVENING.
THIS WILL BRING VERY COLD AIR FOR TONIGHT AND THEN MODERATION ON
THURSDAY. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE PLAINS AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. VERY
COLD CONDITIONS LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER STORM MAY
BRING SNOW TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. PRESSURE RISES ARE
SLOWING TO NEAR ZERO AND SO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE
RELAXING THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...PRIME FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE
FRESH AND DEEP SNOW COVER SHOULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL REFRIDGERATING
FROM BELOW. BECAUSE OF THIS...WE HAVE SUBTRACTED 2-4 DEGREES FROM
MODEL MIN TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND LOW DEWPOINTS SHOULD
RESULT IN A DRY WEATHER DAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...MOISTURE
FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL START STREAMING IN AT HIGH LEVELS. THE
AFTERNOON SHOULD FEATURE INCREASING/THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS WHICH
MAY DIM THE SUN. TEMPERATURES AT 950 MB WILL BE AROUND -5C AND
WOULD SUPPORT SURFACE MAX TEMPS EITHER SIDE OF 30F. CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS MAY INCH A TAD HIGHER TO THE MID 30S.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...

WE CONTINUE TO WATCH DISTURBANCES IN BOTH THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAMS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO PHASE BY THURSDAY AND
EVOLVE INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN USA BY FRIDAY.
THE PRIMARY LOW ACTUALLY RACES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
NIGHT. BUT THE SOUTHERN UPPER JET CURLS AROUND THE ELONGATED
TROUGH AND EXTENDS ITS LEFT EXIT REGION EITHER OVER OR JUST SOUTH
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A COASTAL DEVELOPMENT
OFF OUR COAST ON FRIDAY. A MORE NORTHERLY DEVELOPMENT WOULD FOCUS
LOW LEVEL LIFT AND PRECIPITATION FARTHER NORTH...A MORE SOUTHERLY
DEVELOPMENT WOULD BRING THINGS FARTHER SOUTH. THE GFS SUGGESTS THE
NORTHERN SOLUTION...THE ECMWF AND GGEM DEVELOP THE SECONDARY
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.

WE HAVE OPTED MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN DEVELOPMENT. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT ROUGHLY 0.20 TO 0.30 INCHES OF PCPN DURING THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. THERMAL PROFILES MOSTLY FAVOR SNOW...BUT WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN MIXING IN MIDDAY BEFORE THE SECONDARY DEVELOPS
AND PULLS COLDER AIR IN. THIS SUGGESTS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-5
INCHES WITH THE THE EVENTUAL NEED FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WHEN THE STORM GETS CLOSER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

* SNOW EASTERN AREAS FRI NIGHT DIMINISHES AS LOW EXITS THE AREA
* ARCTIC AIR INVADES NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND ON BRISK NW WINDS
* COASTAL STORM POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT-MON, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE

OVERVIEW...LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO BE OFF THE MAINE COAST
FRI NIGHT. SNOW IS MOST LIKELY EASTERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY COASTAL
AREAS CLOSER TO THIS LOW SUCH AS BOSTON AND POINTS NORTH. THE
SNOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN DURING THE NIGHT FRI NIGHT
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.

ARCTIC AIR WILL USHER INTO NEW ENGLAND BEHIND THIS DEPARTING LOW FOR
THE WEEKEND WITH BLUSTERY NW WINDS AND FRIGID WIND CHILLS. WINDS
CHILL ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FRI NIGHT.

A MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE EASTERN STATES SUN NIGHT
AND MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH REGARDS TO THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH AND THE CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW AND TRACK.
THE LATEST 28.12Z OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW ARE MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND SHOW A WEAKER SURFACE LOW AND WELL EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK. HOWEVER BOTH MODELS DID JUST THE SAME SEVERAL DAYS
BEFORE OUR RECENT BLIZZARD...SO WE CANNOT HAVE ANY DEGREE OF
CONFIDENCE WITH EITHER A HIT OR A MISS THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO USE A MODEL BLEND INCLUDING THEIR ENSEMBLES AS
THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF SPREAD AMONGST THEM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TUE-WED AS THE
SHORTWAVE/LOW MOVES EAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING OVER...BRINGING
QUIET WEATHER MID WEEK. YET ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW OR A WINTRY
MIX ENTERS THE PICTURE BY THU. AN ACTIVE WINTERTIME PATTERN
INDEED!

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THIS EVENING...VFR AND CLEAR. DIMINISHING WIND. LINGERING MVFR
CIGS OVER THE MID AND OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET WILL MOVE OFF BY 7
OR 8 PM.

TONIGHT...VFR. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND.

THURSDAY...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET. LIGHT
WIND.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
CIGS LOWER OVERNIGHT TO MVFR/IFR IN SNOW. SOME RAIN MAY MIX WITH
THE SNOW AT ACK AND HYA. PRECIPITATION STARTS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
CONTINUES UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. SKY CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE CT VALLEY AFTER THE WIND SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST...MVFR/IFR SHOULD LINGER IN THE EAST THROUGH EVENING.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR WEST. POSSIBLE IFR TO START
FOR EASTERN LOCALES...BUT WITH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
25-35 KNOTS SATURDAY...LIGHTER WINDS SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. COASTAL LOW TRACK HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN. JUST WAY TOO EARLY TO HAVE ANY CONFIDENCE ON VFR OR IFR
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM/TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

TONIGHT...DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WIND. DIMINISHING FREEZING SPRAY
POTENTIAL. GUSTS AT LAND STATIONS ARE BELOW 25 KNOTS. BUOY 013
EAST OF BOSTON HAD GUSTS TO 23 KNOTS AT 3 PM. STILL ROUGH SEAS
WITH 5-8 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS AS WELL AS PARTS OF CAPE COD BAY
AND MASSACHUSETTS BAY. WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN
EFFECT FOR THESE WATERS THROUGH THE PART OR ALL OF THE NIGHT.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS SHOULD BRING
LIGHT WIND WHICH WILL ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING ON THE OUTER WATERS EAST OF
MASSACHUSETTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MIDWEST WILL
REDEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY. SNOW WILL MOVE IN AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING FRIDAY WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY.
SOUTH WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BY FRIDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO NORTHWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
POTENTIAL FOR 30 KNOT GUSTS BY EVENING.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FRI-
SAT...LOW CONFIDENCE SUN-MON.

FRIDAY...LOW PRES WILL CROSS THE WATERS. EXPECT REDUCED VSBYS IN
SNOW. EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO NW AND INCREASE FRI NIGHT...WITH
GALES POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS. FREEZING SPRAY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
FRI NIGHT.

SATURDAY...NW GALES EXPECTED WITH POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING SPRAY. HIGH
SEAS FORECAST...10-12 FT OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH SAT NIGHT WITH A CORRESPONDING LOWERING OF SEAS.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS EARLY
SUNDAY...BUT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MUCH WILL DEPEND ON STRENGTH AND TRACK OF A
POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW SO TAKE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST OF WINDS/SEAS
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH A GRAIN OF SALT. A LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST
WOULD SPELL A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO MARINERS...WHILE AN
OFFSHORE/WEAKER TRACK WOULD HAVE MUCH LESS IMPACT. TOO EARLY TO
SAY EITHER WAY...SO WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ231-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WTB/DG
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DG/JWD
AVIATION...WTB/DG
MARINE...WTB/DG



000
FXUS61 KBOX 281812
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
112 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS PARTS OF
CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE DRY
AND COLD AS THE STORM CLEANUP CONTINUES. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES...BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY...BLUSTERY
AND FRIGID CONDITIONS MOVE IN FOR THIS WEEKEND. A THIRD STORM MAY
AFFECT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

THE STORM CENTER FOR THE BLIZZARD OF 2015 IS MOVING OFF PAST NOVA
SCOTIA. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE NOW DRAWING COLD AIR ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS OR LOWER. THIS
COLD AIR FLOWING ACROSS THE EASTERN COASTAL WATERS HAS CAUSED
SEVERAL BANDS OF OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MID AND OUTER
CAPE COD. THIS IS TYPICAL FOR A 330 DEGREE DIRECTION WIND.

WITH THE STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES NOW OFFSHORE...EXPECT THE
SUSTAINED WIND TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTERNOON
OBSERVED TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S SHOULD BE AS WARM
AS IT GETS AS TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER SUPPORT MAX VALUES IN THE
UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS DEVELOPING. WITH DEEP FRESH SNOWPACK...THE STAGE WILL
BE SET FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A VERY COLD NIGHT. LEANED
TOWARD COLDER MOS GUIDANCE AND UNDERCUT BY 2-3F WHICH YIELDS MINS
IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...EXCEPT TEENS
CAPE/ISLANDS. COLDEST MINS WILL BE ACROSS W MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW...
ACTIVE BUT PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS ACROSS THE
LOWER 48 THROUGH THIS LONG TERM PERIOD. FIRST NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE WORKS OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY...CROSSING INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...POSSIBLY LINGERING ALONG
THE E COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL USHER IN ARCTIC AIR FOR THIS
WEEKEND ALONG WITH BLUSTERY WINDS AND FRIGID WIND CHILLS. A PAIR
OF H5 SHORT WAVES MAY MERGE AS THEY APPROACH THE E COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.

WHILE OPERATIONAL MODELS DID SHOW TIMING AND TRACK DIFFERENCES
ESPECIALLY WITH THE POSSIBLE LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM...USED AN OVERALL
MODEL BLEND INCLUDING ENSEMBLES. THIS GAVE GOOD CONTINUITY WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...
HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS IN FAST UPPER FLOW. WILL SEE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE RIDGE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH A LIGHT S-SW WIND FLOW SETTING UP. CLOUDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. EXPECT HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...
PRETTY VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE WITH CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WORKING E
OUT OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM
WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AS THE SHORT WAVE BEGINS
TO NEGATIVE TILT AND CUTOFF...BUT THIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAPPEN
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW DOES NOT DEEPEN UNTIL LATER
FRIDAY...WHICH WILL BE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY THEN. HOWEVER...
THE LOW LOOKS TO SPIN THERE FRI NIGHT AS IT DEEPENS...WHICH MAY
KEEP MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN AREAS.

WITH MILDER AIR WORKING INTO THE DEVELOPING LOW FRIDAY...LOOKS
LIKE THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF MIXED RAIN/SNOW OR EVEN A BRIEF
CHANGE TO RAIN ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION
THOUGH NOT NEARLY AS HIGH AS THE BLIZZARD. TOTAL QPF LOOKS TO BE
FROM 0.15 TO 0.25 INCHES ACROSS MOST AREAS...BUT WILL SEE SOME
ENHANCEMENT ACROSS E COASTAL AREAS AS THE LOW FORMS WITH QPF
POSSIBLY UP TO 0.40 INCHES. WITH THE COLD AIR IN PLACE...WILL
LIKELY SEE SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM 2-4 INCHES BUT COULD SEE A BIT
MORE ACROSS NE MA CLOSER TO THE DEVELOPING LOW WITH SOME SNOW
LINGERING FRI NIGHT.

WITH STRONG PRESSURE FALLS AS THE LOW DEVELOPS OFFSHORE...EXPECT
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BRINGING INCREASING NW WINDS BEHIND THE
STORM LATER FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTS UP TO 25-35 KT
AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT...BRINGING IN ARCTIC AIR AS WELL AS LOW
WIND CHILL READINGS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT PLUNGE TO BELOW ZERO ACROSS
THE HIGHER INLAND TERRAIN AS WELL AS THE E SLOPES OF THE
BERKSHIRES TO 10-15 ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW TEMPS AND BLUSTERY WINDS MAY MEAN VERY
LOW WIND CHILL READINGS. ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE INTERIOR.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
HIGH PRES BEGINS TO SHIFT E DURING SAT...BUT THE DEPARTING STORM
INTO THE MARITIMES WILL CAUSE BLUSTERY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
ARCTIC AIRMASS ENTRENCHES ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION WITH H85 TEMPS
DROPPING TO -11C TO -16C. THIS TRANSLATES TO TEMPS ONLY RECOVERING
TO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 ON SAT...THOUGH WIND CHILLS WILL MAKE
IT FEEL MUCH COLDER.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SAT NIGHT...BUT MAY REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH WITH
THE DROPPING TEMPS TO SEE POSSIBLE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES. LOWS
WILL BOTTOM OUT FROM ZERO TO 5 BELOW WELL INLAND TO THE MID TEENS
ON THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

ANOTHER LOW BEGINS TO MOVE NE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRES CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION. NW WINDS DIMINISH
AND BEGIN TO BACK TO W LATE IN THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...
PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS BEGIN TO APPROACH. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THESE SYSTEMS...AS WELL AS HOW SURFACE LOW
PRES FORMS AS IT APPROACHES. OF CONCERN IS THE TRACK OF THIS LOW
ON THE 00Z ECMWF...WHICH TAKES THE LOW S OF THE REGION MEANING
ANOTHER SHOT FOR MORE SNOW. THE 00Z GFS AND GGEM MODELS KEEP THE
LOW FURTHER INLAND...WITH POSSIBLE MIXTURE OR A CHANGE TO RAIN FOR
SOME LOCATIONS. MAY ALSO SEE DECENT RAINFALL WITH SOME INFUSION
OF SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE WITH THIS LOW. SOMETHING TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON...THOUGH AGAIN CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

TUESDAY...DEPENDING UPON THE DEPARTURE OF THE LOW...LOOKS LIKE
MORE COLD AIR WORKS IN AS ANOTHER HIGH APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR MOST AREAS. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ON MID
AND OUTER CAPE COD FROM OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWER BANDS MOVING
ASHORE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT GUSTS
OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE SUPPORTED THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND.

THURSDAY...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET. LIGHT
WIND.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
CIGS LOWER OVERNIGHT TO MVFR/IFR IN SNOW. SOME RAIN MAY MIX WITH
THE SNOW AT ACK AND HYA. PRECIPITATION STARTS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
CONTINUES UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST MIDDAY
OR EARLY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. SKY
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER THE WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS 25-35 KNOTS SATURDAY...LIGHTER WINDS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM/THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT/...

LINGERING NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON DIMINISHES THIS EVENING. SEAS OF 5 TO 9 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS AND ON MASSACHUSETTS BAY WILL LINGER THIS AFTERNOON
AND SUBSIDE TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ON MOST WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON AND DIMINISHES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY...
LOW PRES WILL CROSS THE WATERS. EXPECT REDUCED VSBYS IN SNOW.
EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO NW BY FRI NIGHT...INCREASING TO 25-35
KT...SO GALES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. SEAS ALSO BUILD UP TO 6-8 FT
OVER THE OPEN WATERS. FREEZING SPRAY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FRI
NIGHT.

SATURDAY...NW GALES EXPECTED WITH POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY. SEAS REMAIN HIGH...POSSIBLY UP TO 7-9 FT ON THE EXPOSED
WATERS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS EARLY
SUNDAY...BUT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE HAS PASSED. NO REPORTS OF
SIGNIFICANT ISSUES WITH SPLASHOVER OR MINOR FLOODING THIS MORNING
SO FAR. HAVE ALLOWED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY TO EXPIRE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ231-251-
     255-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 281812
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
112 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS PARTS OF
CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE DRY
AND COLD AS THE STORM CLEANUP CONTINUES. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES...BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY...BLUSTERY
AND FRIGID CONDITIONS MOVE IN FOR THIS WEEKEND. A THIRD STORM MAY
AFFECT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

THE STORM CENTER FOR THE BLIZZARD OF 2015 IS MOVING OFF PAST NOVA
SCOTIA. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE NOW DRAWING COLD AIR ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS OR LOWER. THIS
COLD AIR FLOWING ACROSS THE EASTERN COASTAL WATERS HAS CAUSED
SEVERAL BANDS OF OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MID AND OUTER
CAPE COD. THIS IS TYPICAL FOR A 330 DEGREE DIRECTION WIND.

WITH THE STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES NOW OFFSHORE...EXPECT THE
SUSTAINED WIND TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTERNOON
OBSERVED TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S SHOULD BE AS WARM
AS IT GETS AS TEMPS IN THE MIXED LAYER SUPPORT MAX VALUES IN THE
UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS DEVELOPING. WITH DEEP FRESH SNOWPACK...THE STAGE WILL
BE SET FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A VERY COLD NIGHT. LEANED
TOWARD COLDER MOS GUIDANCE AND UNDERCUT BY 2-3F WHICH YIELDS MINS
IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...EXCEPT TEENS
CAPE/ISLANDS. COLDEST MINS WILL BE ACROSS W MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW...
ACTIVE BUT PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS ACROSS THE
LOWER 48 THROUGH THIS LONG TERM PERIOD. FIRST NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE WORKS OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY...CROSSING INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...POSSIBLY LINGERING ALONG
THE E COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL USHER IN ARCTIC AIR FOR THIS
WEEKEND ALONG WITH BLUSTERY WINDS AND FRIGID WIND CHILLS. A PAIR
OF H5 SHORT WAVES MAY MERGE AS THEY APPROACH THE E COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.

WHILE OPERATIONAL MODELS DID SHOW TIMING AND TRACK DIFFERENCES
ESPECIALLY WITH THE POSSIBLE LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM...USED AN OVERALL
MODEL BLEND INCLUDING ENSEMBLES. THIS GAVE GOOD CONTINUITY WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...
HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS IN FAST UPPER FLOW. WILL SEE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE RIDGE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH A LIGHT S-SW WIND FLOW SETTING UP. CLOUDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. EXPECT HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...
PRETTY VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE WITH CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WORKING E
OUT OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM
WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AS THE SHORT WAVE BEGINS
TO NEGATIVE TILT AND CUTOFF...BUT THIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAPPEN
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW DOES NOT DEEPEN UNTIL LATER
FRIDAY...WHICH WILL BE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY THEN. HOWEVER...
THE LOW LOOKS TO SPIN THERE FRI NIGHT AS IT DEEPENS...WHICH MAY
KEEP MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN AREAS.

WITH MILDER AIR WORKING INTO THE DEVELOPING LOW FRIDAY...LOOKS
LIKE THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF MIXED RAIN/SNOW OR EVEN A BRIEF
CHANGE TO RAIN ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION
THOUGH NOT NEARLY AS HIGH AS THE BLIZZARD. TOTAL QPF LOOKS TO BE
FROM 0.15 TO 0.25 INCHES ACROSS MOST AREAS...BUT WILL SEE SOME
ENHANCEMENT ACROSS E COASTAL AREAS AS THE LOW FORMS WITH QPF
POSSIBLY UP TO 0.40 INCHES. WITH THE COLD AIR IN PLACE...WILL
LIKELY SEE SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM 2-4 INCHES BUT COULD SEE A BIT
MORE ACROSS NE MA CLOSER TO THE DEVELOPING LOW WITH SOME SNOW
LINGERING FRI NIGHT.

WITH STRONG PRESSURE FALLS AS THE LOW DEVELOPS OFFSHORE...EXPECT
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BRINGING INCREASING NW WINDS BEHIND THE
STORM LATER FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTS UP TO 25-35 KT
AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT...BRINGING IN ARCTIC AIR AS WELL AS LOW
WIND CHILL READINGS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT PLUNGE TO BELOW ZERO ACROSS
THE HIGHER INLAND TERRAIN AS WELL AS THE E SLOPES OF THE
BERKSHIRES TO 10-15 ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW TEMPS AND BLUSTERY WINDS MAY MEAN VERY
LOW WIND CHILL READINGS. ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE INTERIOR.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
HIGH PRES BEGINS TO SHIFT E DURING SAT...BUT THE DEPARTING STORM
INTO THE MARITIMES WILL CAUSE BLUSTERY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
ARCTIC AIRMASS ENTRENCHES ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION WITH H85 TEMPS
DROPPING TO -11C TO -16C. THIS TRANSLATES TO TEMPS ONLY RECOVERING
TO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 ON SAT...THOUGH WIND CHILLS WILL MAKE
IT FEEL MUCH COLDER.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SAT NIGHT...BUT MAY REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH WITH
THE DROPPING TEMPS TO SEE POSSIBLE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES. LOWS
WILL BOTTOM OUT FROM ZERO TO 5 BELOW WELL INLAND TO THE MID TEENS
ON THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

ANOTHER LOW BEGINS TO MOVE NE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRES CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION. NW WINDS DIMINISH
AND BEGIN TO BACK TO W LATE IN THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...
PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS BEGIN TO APPROACH. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THESE SYSTEMS...AS WELL AS HOW SURFACE LOW
PRES FORMS AS IT APPROACHES. OF CONCERN IS THE TRACK OF THIS LOW
ON THE 00Z ECMWF...WHICH TAKES THE LOW S OF THE REGION MEANING
ANOTHER SHOT FOR MORE SNOW. THE 00Z GFS AND GGEM MODELS KEEP THE
LOW FURTHER INLAND...WITH POSSIBLE MIXTURE OR A CHANGE TO RAIN FOR
SOME LOCATIONS. MAY ALSO SEE DECENT RAINFALL WITH SOME INFUSION
OF SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE WITH THIS LOW. SOMETHING TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON...THOUGH AGAIN CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

TUESDAY...DEPENDING UPON THE DEPARTURE OF THE LOW...LOOKS LIKE
MORE COLD AIR WORKS IN AS ANOTHER HIGH APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR MOST AREAS. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ON MID
AND OUTER CAPE COD FROM OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWER BANDS MOVING
ASHORE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT GUSTS
OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE SUPPORTED THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND.

THURSDAY...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET. LIGHT
WIND.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
CIGS LOWER OVERNIGHT TO MVFR/IFR IN SNOW. SOME RAIN MAY MIX WITH
THE SNOW AT ACK AND HYA. PRECIPITATION STARTS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
CONTINUES UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST MIDDAY
OR EARLY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. SKY
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER THE WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS 25-35 KNOTS SATURDAY...LIGHTER WINDS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM/THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT/...

LINGERING NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON DIMINISHES THIS EVENING. SEAS OF 5 TO 9 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS AND ON MASSACHUSETTS BAY WILL LINGER THIS AFTERNOON
AND SUBSIDE TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ON MOST WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON AND DIMINISHES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY...
LOW PRES WILL CROSS THE WATERS. EXPECT REDUCED VSBYS IN SNOW.
EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO NW BY FRI NIGHT...INCREASING TO 25-35
KT...SO GALES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. SEAS ALSO BUILD UP TO 6-8 FT
OVER THE OPEN WATERS. FREEZING SPRAY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FRI
NIGHT.

SATURDAY...NW GALES EXPECTED WITH POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY. SEAS REMAIN HIGH...POSSIBLY UP TO 7-9 FT ON THE EXPOSED
WATERS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS EARLY
SUNDAY...BUT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE HAS PASSED. NO REPORTS OF
SIGNIFICANT ISSUES WITH SPLASHOVER OR MINOR FLOODING THIS MORNING
SO FAR. HAVE ALLOWED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY TO EXPIRE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ232>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ231-251-
     255-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 281225
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
725 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA TODAY. SCATTERED
OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET INTO THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE DRY AND
COLD AS THE CLEANUP CONTINUES. A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT
OF THE PLAINS STATES...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY...BLUSTERY AND FRIGID CONDITIONS MOVE
IN FOR THIS WEEKEND. A THIRD STORM MAY AFFECT THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
LOWER CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS AT
12Z...BUT NOTING BREAKS IN THOSE CLOUDS ACROSS W MA/N CENTRAL CT.
IR SATELLITE ALSO SHOWING THESE BREAKS WITH CLEARING MOVING INTO E
NY AND THE BERKSHIRES. HOWEVER...WITH H5 TROUGH AXIS LINGERING
ACROSS THE REGION...WILL LIKELY SEE CLOUDS POP UP AGAIN THROUGH
MIDDAY.

STILL NOTING LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS REACHING INTO COASTAL PLYMOUTH
COUNTY AS WELL AS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. COLD AIR ACROSS THE MILDER
OCEAN WATERS WILL KEEP SCT OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS
THE MID AND OUTER CAPE AND INTO NANTUCKET WITH A FEW POSSIBLE
MOVING ACROSS THE VINEYARD.

HAVE UPDATED NEAR TERM FORECAST TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SCT OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE OUTER CAPE. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER
THE WATER WITH DELTA T FROM SST TO TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER
EXCEEDING 20C WHICH IS QUITE UNSTABLE. HOWEVER...NW TRAJECTORY AND
SHALLOW MIXED LAYER WILL LIMIT AREAL EXTENT SOMEWHAT. COULD SEE AN
ADDITIONAL COATING TO AN INCH OVER THE OUTER CAPE.

OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO PTSUNNY SKIES FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR THE CAPE/ISLANDS
WHERE CLEARING WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL EVENING. HIGH TEMPS WILL
REACH LOW/MID 20S...EXCEPT UPPER TEENS HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHERN
AND WESTERN MA. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH WILL RESULT IN WIND
CHILLS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS DEVELOPING. WITH DEEP FRESH SNOWPACK...THE STAGE WILL
BE SET FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A VERY COLD NIGHT. LEANED
TOWARD COLDER MOS GUIDANCE AND UNDERCUT BY 2-3F WHICH YIELDS MINS
IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...EXCEPT TEENS
CAPE/ISLANDS. COLDEST MINS WILL BE ACROSS W MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW...
ACTIVE BUT PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS ACROSS THE
LOWER 48 THROUGH THIS LONG TERM PERIOD. FIRST NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE WORKS OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY...CROSSING INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...POSSIBLY LINGERING ALONG
THE E COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL USHER IN ARCTIC AIR FOR THIS
WEEKEND ALONG WITH BLUSTERY WINDS AND FRIGID WIND CHILLS. A PAIR
OF H5 SHORT WAVES MAY MERGE AS THEY APPROACH THE E COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.

WHILE OPERATIONAL MODELS DID SHOW TIMING AND TRACK DIFFERENCES
ESPECIALLY WITH THE POSSIBLE LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM...USED AN OVERALL
MODEL BLEND INCLUDING ENSEMBLES. THIS GAVE GOOD CONTINUITY WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...
HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS IN FAST UPPER FLOW. WILL SEE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE RIDGE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH A LIGHT S-SW WIND FLOW SETTING UP. CLOUDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. EXPECT HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...
PRETTY VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE WITH CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WORKING E
OUT OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM
WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AS THE SHORT WAVE BEGINS
TO NEGATIVE TILT AND CUTOFF...BUT THIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAPPEN
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW DOES NOT DEEPEN UNTIL LATER
FRIDAY...WHICH WILL BE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY THEN. HOWEVER...
THE LOW LOOKS TO SPIN THERE FRI NIGHT AS IT DEEPENS...WHICH MAY
KEEP MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN AREAS.

WITH MILDER AIR WORKING INTO THE DEVELOPING LOW FRIDAY...LOOKS
LIKE THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF MIXED RAIN/SNOW OR EVEN A BRIEF
CHANGE TO RAIN ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION
THOUGH NOT NEARLY AS HIGH AS THE BLIZZARD. TOTAL QPF LOOKS TO BE
FROM 0.15 TO 0.25 INCHES ACROSS MOST AREAS...BUT WILL SEE SOME
ENHANCEMENT ACROSS E COASTAL AREAS AS THE LOW FORMS WITH QPF
POSSIBLY UP TO 0.40 INCHES. WITH THE COLD AIR IN PLACE...WILL
LIKELY SEE SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM 2-4 INCHES BUT COULD SEE A BIT
MORE ACROSS NE MA CLOSER TO THE DEVELOPING LOW WITH SOME SNOW
LINGERING FRI NIGHT.

WITH STRONG PRESSURE FALLS AS THE LOW DEVELOPS OFFSHORE...EXPECT
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BRINGING INCREASING NW WINDS BEHIND THE
STORM LATER FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTS UP TO 25-35 KT
AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT...BRINGING IN ARCTIC AIR AS WELL AS LOW
WIND CHILL READINGS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT PLUNGE TO BELOW ZERO ACROSS
THE HIGHER INLAND TERRAIN AS WELL AS THE E SLOPES OF THE
BERKSHIRES TO 10-15 ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW TEMPS AND BLUSTERY WINDS MAY MEAN VERY
LOW WIND CHILL READINGS. ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE INTERIOR.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
HIGH PRES BEGINS TO SHIFT E DURING SAT...BUT THE DEPARTING STORM
INTO THE MARITIMES WILL CAUSE BLUSTERY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
ARCTIC AIRMASS ENTRENCHES ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION WITH H85 TEMPS
DROPPING TO -11C TO -16C. THIS TRANSLATES TO TEMPS ONLY RECOVERING
TO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 ON SAT...THOUGH WIND CHILLS WILL MAKE
IT FEEL MUCH COLDER.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SAT NIGHT...BUT MAY REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH WITH
THE DROPPING TEMPS TO SEE POSSIBLE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES. LOWS
WILL BOTTOM OUT FROM ZERO TO 5 BELOW WELL INLAND TO THE MID TEENS
ON THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

ANOTHER LOW BEGINS TO MOVE NE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRES CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION. NW WINDS DIMINISH
AND BEGIN TO BACK TO W LATE IN THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...
PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS BEGIN TO APPROACH. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THESE SYSTEMS...AS WELL AS HOW SURFACE LOW
PRES FORMS AS IT APPROACHES. OF CONCERN IS THE TRACK OF THIS LOW
ON THE 00Z ECMWF...WHICH TAKES THE LOW S OF THE REGION MEANING
ANOTHER SHOT FOR MORE SNOW. THE 00Z GFS AND GGEM MODELS KEEP THE
LOW FURTHER INLAND...WITH POSSIBLE MIXTURE OR A CHANGE TO RAIN FOR
SOME LOCATIONS. MAY ALSO SEE DECENT RAINFALL WITH SOME INFUSION
OF SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE WITH THIS LOW. SOMETHING TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON...THOUGH AGAIN CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

TUESDAY...DEPENDING UPON THE DEPARTURE OF THE LOW...LOOKS LIKE
MORE COLD AIR WORKS IN AS ANOTHER HIGH APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR CIGS MOST AREAS. EXPECT MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH SCT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS OUTER CAPE COD AND ACK. NW GUSTS TO 20-25 KT MAINLY
ALONG COAST AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
S. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS APPROACH DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT CIGS LOWER TO MVFR WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN SNOW. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TO VFR FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT NW WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25-30 KT...POSSIBLY HIGHER ALONG THE E COAST.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS 25-35 KNOTS SATURDAY...LIGHTER WINDS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

GALE FORCE GUSTS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER E WATERS AND SCA IN EFFECT
FOR ALL WATERS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BELOW SCA LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH GRADUAL SUBSIDING SEAS.
FREEZING SPRAY DIMINISHING.

DIMINISHING NW WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS MOSTLY BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS...EXCEPT SUBSIDING TO NEAR 5 FT OVER E WATERS TOWARD
DAYBREAK THU.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...
CONDITIONS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ON THURSDAY...
THOUGH S WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KT THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY...
LOW PRES WILL CROSS THE WATERS. EXPECT REDUCED VSBYS IN SNOW.
EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO NW BY FRI NIGHT...INCREASING TO 25-35
KT...SO GALES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. SEAS ALSO BUILD UP TO 6-8 FT
OVER THE OPEN WATERS. FREEZING SPRAY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FRI
NIGHT.

SATURDAY...NW GALES EXPECTED WITH POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY. SEAS REMAIN HIGH...POSSIBLY UP TO 7-9 FT ON THE EXPOSED
WATERS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS EARLY
SUNDAY...BUT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE HAS PASSED. NO REPORTS OF
SIGNIFICANT ISSUES WITH SPLASHOVER OR MINOR FLOODING THIS MORNING
SO FAR. HAVE ALLOWED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY TO EXPIRE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ232>235-237.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231-
     251-255-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC/EVT
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 281225
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
725 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA TODAY. SCATTERED
OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET INTO THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE DRY AND
COLD AS THE CLEANUP CONTINUES. A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT
OF THE PLAINS STATES...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY...BLUSTERY AND FRIGID CONDITIONS MOVE
IN FOR THIS WEEKEND. A THIRD STORM MAY AFFECT THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
LOWER CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS AT
12Z...BUT NOTING BREAKS IN THOSE CLOUDS ACROSS W MA/N CENTRAL CT.
IR SATELLITE ALSO SHOWING THESE BREAKS WITH CLEARING MOVING INTO E
NY AND THE BERKSHIRES. HOWEVER...WITH H5 TROUGH AXIS LINGERING
ACROSS THE REGION...WILL LIKELY SEE CLOUDS POP UP AGAIN THROUGH
MIDDAY.

STILL NOTING LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS REACHING INTO COASTAL PLYMOUTH
COUNTY AS WELL AS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. COLD AIR ACROSS THE MILDER
OCEAN WATERS WILL KEEP SCT OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS
THE MID AND OUTER CAPE AND INTO NANTUCKET WITH A FEW POSSIBLE
MOVING ACROSS THE VINEYARD.

HAVE UPDATED NEAR TERM FORECAST TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SCT OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE OUTER CAPE. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER
THE WATER WITH DELTA T FROM SST TO TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER
EXCEEDING 20C WHICH IS QUITE UNSTABLE. HOWEVER...NW TRAJECTORY AND
SHALLOW MIXED LAYER WILL LIMIT AREAL EXTENT SOMEWHAT. COULD SEE AN
ADDITIONAL COATING TO AN INCH OVER THE OUTER CAPE.

OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO PTSUNNY SKIES FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR THE CAPE/ISLANDS
WHERE CLEARING WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL EVENING. HIGH TEMPS WILL
REACH LOW/MID 20S...EXCEPT UPPER TEENS HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHERN
AND WESTERN MA. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH WILL RESULT IN WIND
CHILLS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS DEVELOPING. WITH DEEP FRESH SNOWPACK...THE STAGE WILL
BE SET FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A VERY COLD NIGHT. LEANED
TOWARD COLDER MOS GUIDANCE AND UNDERCUT BY 2-3F WHICH YIELDS MINS
IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...EXCEPT TEENS
CAPE/ISLANDS. COLDEST MINS WILL BE ACROSS W MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW...
ACTIVE BUT PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS ACROSS THE
LOWER 48 THROUGH THIS LONG TERM PERIOD. FIRST NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE WORKS OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY...CROSSING INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...POSSIBLY LINGERING ALONG
THE E COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL USHER IN ARCTIC AIR FOR THIS
WEEKEND ALONG WITH BLUSTERY WINDS AND FRIGID WIND CHILLS. A PAIR
OF H5 SHORT WAVES MAY MERGE AS THEY APPROACH THE E COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.

WHILE OPERATIONAL MODELS DID SHOW TIMING AND TRACK DIFFERENCES
ESPECIALLY WITH THE POSSIBLE LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM...USED AN OVERALL
MODEL BLEND INCLUDING ENSEMBLES. THIS GAVE GOOD CONTINUITY WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...
HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS IN FAST UPPER FLOW. WILL SEE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE RIDGE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH A LIGHT S-SW WIND FLOW SETTING UP. CLOUDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. EXPECT HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...
PRETTY VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE WITH CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WORKING E
OUT OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM
WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AS THE SHORT WAVE BEGINS
TO NEGATIVE TILT AND CUTOFF...BUT THIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAPPEN
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW DOES NOT DEEPEN UNTIL LATER
FRIDAY...WHICH WILL BE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY THEN. HOWEVER...
THE LOW LOOKS TO SPIN THERE FRI NIGHT AS IT DEEPENS...WHICH MAY
KEEP MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN AREAS.

WITH MILDER AIR WORKING INTO THE DEVELOPING LOW FRIDAY...LOOKS
LIKE THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF MIXED RAIN/SNOW OR EVEN A BRIEF
CHANGE TO RAIN ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION
THOUGH NOT NEARLY AS HIGH AS THE BLIZZARD. TOTAL QPF LOOKS TO BE
FROM 0.15 TO 0.25 INCHES ACROSS MOST AREAS...BUT WILL SEE SOME
ENHANCEMENT ACROSS E COASTAL AREAS AS THE LOW FORMS WITH QPF
POSSIBLY UP TO 0.40 INCHES. WITH THE COLD AIR IN PLACE...WILL
LIKELY SEE SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM 2-4 INCHES BUT COULD SEE A BIT
MORE ACROSS NE MA CLOSER TO THE DEVELOPING LOW WITH SOME SNOW
LINGERING FRI NIGHT.

WITH STRONG PRESSURE FALLS AS THE LOW DEVELOPS OFFSHORE...EXPECT
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BRINGING INCREASING NW WINDS BEHIND THE
STORM LATER FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTS UP TO 25-35 KT
AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT...BRINGING IN ARCTIC AIR AS WELL AS LOW
WIND CHILL READINGS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT PLUNGE TO BELOW ZERO ACROSS
THE HIGHER INLAND TERRAIN AS WELL AS THE E SLOPES OF THE
BERKSHIRES TO 10-15 ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW TEMPS AND BLUSTERY WINDS MAY MEAN VERY
LOW WIND CHILL READINGS. ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE INTERIOR.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
HIGH PRES BEGINS TO SHIFT E DURING SAT...BUT THE DEPARTING STORM
INTO THE MARITIMES WILL CAUSE BLUSTERY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
ARCTIC AIRMASS ENTRENCHES ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION WITH H85 TEMPS
DROPPING TO -11C TO -16C. THIS TRANSLATES TO TEMPS ONLY RECOVERING
TO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 ON SAT...THOUGH WIND CHILLS WILL MAKE
IT FEEL MUCH COLDER.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SAT NIGHT...BUT MAY REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH WITH
THE DROPPING TEMPS TO SEE POSSIBLE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES. LOWS
WILL BOTTOM OUT FROM ZERO TO 5 BELOW WELL INLAND TO THE MID TEENS
ON THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

ANOTHER LOW BEGINS TO MOVE NE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRES CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION. NW WINDS DIMINISH
AND BEGIN TO BACK TO W LATE IN THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...
PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS BEGIN TO APPROACH. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THESE SYSTEMS...AS WELL AS HOW SURFACE LOW
PRES FORMS AS IT APPROACHES. OF CONCERN IS THE TRACK OF THIS LOW
ON THE 00Z ECMWF...WHICH TAKES THE LOW S OF THE REGION MEANING
ANOTHER SHOT FOR MORE SNOW. THE 00Z GFS AND GGEM MODELS KEEP THE
LOW FURTHER INLAND...WITH POSSIBLE MIXTURE OR A CHANGE TO RAIN FOR
SOME LOCATIONS. MAY ALSO SEE DECENT RAINFALL WITH SOME INFUSION
OF SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE WITH THIS LOW. SOMETHING TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON...THOUGH AGAIN CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

TUESDAY...DEPENDING UPON THE DEPARTURE OF THE LOW...LOOKS LIKE
MORE COLD AIR WORKS IN AS ANOTHER HIGH APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR CIGS MOST AREAS. EXPECT MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH SCT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS OUTER CAPE COD AND ACK. NW GUSTS TO 20-25 KT MAINLY
ALONG COAST AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
S. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS APPROACH DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT CIGS LOWER TO MVFR WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN SNOW. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TO VFR FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT NW WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25-30 KT...POSSIBLY HIGHER ALONG THE E COAST.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS 25-35 KNOTS SATURDAY...LIGHTER WINDS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

GALE FORCE GUSTS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER E WATERS AND SCA IN EFFECT
FOR ALL WATERS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BELOW SCA LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH GRADUAL SUBSIDING SEAS.
FREEZING SPRAY DIMINISHING.

DIMINISHING NW WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS MOSTLY BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS...EXCEPT SUBSIDING TO NEAR 5 FT OVER E WATERS TOWARD
DAYBREAK THU.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...
CONDITIONS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ON THURSDAY...
THOUGH S WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KT THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY...
LOW PRES WILL CROSS THE WATERS. EXPECT REDUCED VSBYS IN SNOW.
EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO NW BY FRI NIGHT...INCREASING TO 25-35
KT...SO GALES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. SEAS ALSO BUILD UP TO 6-8 FT
OVER THE OPEN WATERS. FREEZING SPRAY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FRI
NIGHT.

SATURDAY...NW GALES EXPECTED WITH POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY. SEAS REMAIN HIGH...POSSIBLY UP TO 7-9 FT ON THE EXPOSED
WATERS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS EARLY
SUNDAY...BUT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE HAS PASSED. NO REPORTS OF
SIGNIFICANT ISSUES WITH SPLASHOVER OR MINOR FLOODING THIS MORNING
SO FAR. HAVE ALLOWED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY TO EXPIRE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ232>235-237.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231-
     251-255-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC/EVT
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 281029
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
529 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA TODAY. OTHER
THAN A FEW OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE CAPE AND
NANTUCKET...IT WILL BE DRY AND COLD AS THE CLEANUP BEGINS. CLIPPER
TYPE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES...BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY...BLUSTERY
AND FRIGID CONDITIONS MOVE IN FOR THIS WEEKEND. A THIRD STORM MAY
AFFECT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS COMMA HEAD LOSING ITS PUNCH ACROSS NEW ENG AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. SNOW BANDS HAVE WEAKENED
CONSIDERABLY ACROSS E MA AND LIGHT SNOW WILL COME TO AN END BEFORE
DAYBREAK WITH EXCEPTION OF CAPE COD WHERE OCEAN EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP.

FOR TODAY...SCT OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER THE OUTER CAPE. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES OVER THE WATER WITH DELTA T FROM SST TO TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER EXCEEDING 20C WHICH IS QUITE UNSTABLE. HOWEVER...NW
TRAJECTORY AND SHALLOW MIXED LAYER WILL LIMIT AREAL EXTENT
SOMEWHAT. COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL COATING TO AN INCH OVER THE
OUTER CAPE. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO PTSUNNY
SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR THE
CAPE/ISLANDS WHERE CLEARING WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL EVENING. HIGH
TEMPS WILL REACH LOW/MID 20S...EXCEPT UPPER TEENS HIGHER TERRAIN
IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN MA. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH WILL
RESULT IN WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS DEVELOPING. WITH DEEP FRESH SNOWPACK...THE STAGE WILL
BE SET FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A VERY COLD NIGHT. LEANED
TOWARD COLDER MOS GUIDANCE AND UNDERCUT BY 2-3F WHICH YIELDS MINS
IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...EXCEPT TEENS
CAPE/ISLANDS. COLDEST MINS WILL BE ACROSS W MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

OVERVIEW...
ACTIVE BUT PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS ACROSS THE
LOWER 48 THROUGH THIS LONG TERM PERIOD. FIRST NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE WORKS OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY...CROSSING INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...POSSIBLY LINGERING ALONG
THE E COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL USHER IN ARCTIC AIR FOR THIS
WEEKEND ALONG WITH BLUSTERY WINDS AND FRIGID WIND CHILLS. A PAIR
OF H5 SHORT WAVES MAY MERGE AS THEY APPROACH THE E COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.

WHILE OPERATIONAL MODELS DID SHOW TIMING AND TRACK DIFFERENCES
ESPECIALLY WITH THE POSSIBLE LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM...USED AN OVERALL
MODEL BLEND INCLUDING ENSEMBLES. THIS GAVE GOOD CONTINUITY WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...
HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS IN FAST UPPER FLOW. WILL SEE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE RIDGE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH A LIGHT S-SW WIND FLOW SETTING UP. CLOUDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. EXPECT HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...
PRETTY VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE WITH CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WORKING E
OUT OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM
WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AS THE SHORT WAVE BEGINS
TO NEGATIVE TILT AND CUTOFF...BUT THIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAPPEN
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW DOES NOT DEEPEN UNTIL LATER
FRIDAY...WHICH WILL BE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY THEN. HOWEVER...
THE LOW LOOKS TO SPIN THERE FRI NIGHT AS IT DEEPENS...WHICH MAY
KEEP MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN AREAS.

WITH MILDER AIR WORKING INTO THE DEVELOPING LOW FRIDAY...LOOKS
LIKE THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF MIXED RAIN/SNOW OR EVEN A BRIEF
CHANGE TO RAIN ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION
THOUGH NOT NEARLY AS HIGH AS THE BLIZZARD. TOTAL QPF LOOKS TO BE
FROM 0.15 TO 0.25 INCHES ACROSS MOST AREAS...BUT WILL SEE SOME
ENHANCEMENT ACROSS E COASTAL AREAS AS THE LOW FORMS WITH QPF
POSSIBLY UP TO 0.40 INCHES. WITH THE COLD AIR IN PLACE...WILL
LIKELY SEE SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM 2-4 INCHES BUT COULD SEE A BIT
MORE ACROSS NE MA CLOSER TO THE DEVELOPING LOW WITH SOME SNOW
LINGERING FRI NIGHT.

WITH STRONG PRESSURE FALLS AS THE LOW DEVELOPS OFFSHORE...EXPECT
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BRINGING INCREASING NW WINDS BEHIND THE
STORM LATER FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTS UP TO 25-35 KT
AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT...BRINGING IN ARCTIC AIR AS WELL AS LOW
WIND CHILL READINGS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT PLUNGE TO BELOW ZERO ACROSS
THE HIGHER INLAND TERRAIN AS WELL AS THE E SLOPES OF THE
BERKSHIRES TO 10-15 ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW TEMPS AND BLUSTERY WINDS MAY MEAN VERY
LOW WIND CHILL READINGS. ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE INTERIOR.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
HIGH PRES BEGINS TO SHIFT E DURING SAT...BUT THE DEPARTING STORM
INTO THE MARITIMES WILL CAUSE BLUSTERY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
ARCTIC AIRMASS ENTRENCHES ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION WITH H85 TEMPS
DROPPING TO -11C TO -16C. THIS TRANSLATES TO TEMPS ONLY RECOVERING
TO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 ON SAT...THOUGH WIND CHILLS WILL MAKE
IT FEEL MUCH COLDER.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SAT NIGHT...BUT MAY REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH WITH
THE DROPPING TEMPS TO SEE POSSIBLE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES. LOWS
WILL BOTTOM OUT FROM ZERO TO 5 BELOW WELL INLAND TO THE MID TEENS
ON THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

ANOTHER LOW BEGINS TO MOVE NE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRES CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION. NW WINDS DIMINISH
AND BEGIN TO BACK TO W LATE IN THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...
PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS BEGIN TO APPROACH. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THESE SYSTEMS...AS WELL AS HOW SURFACE LOW
PRES FORMS AS IT APPROACHES. OF CONCERN IS THE TRACK OF THIS LOW
ON THE 00Z ECMWF...WHICH TAKES THE LOW S OF THE REGION MEANING
ANOTHER SHOT FOR MORE SNOW. THE 00Z GFS AND GGEM MODELS KEEP THE
LOW FURTHER INLAND...WITH POSSIBLE MIXTURE OR A CHANGE TO RAIN FOR
SOME LOCATIONS. MAY ALSO SEE DECENT RAINFALL WITH SOME INFUSION
OF SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE WITH THIS LOW. SOMETHING TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON...THOUGH AGAIN CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

TUESDAY...DEPENDING UPON THE DEPARTURE OF THE LOW...LOOKS LIKE
MORE COLD AIR WORKS IN AS ANOTHER HIGH APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SNOW ACROSS E MA WILL IMPROVE
08-09Z...EXCEPT LINGERING IN OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
CAPE COD. DIMINISHING WIND.

TODAY...VFR CIGS MOST AREAS...BUT MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH SCT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS OUTER CAPE COD AND ACK. NW GUSTS TO 20 KT.

TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
S. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS APPROACH DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT CIGS LOWER TO MVFR WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN SNOW. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TO VFR FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT NW WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25-30 KT...POSSIBLY HIGHER ALONG THE E COAST.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS 25-35 KNOTS SATURDAY...LIGHTER WINDS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

GALE FORCE GUSTS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER E WATERS AND SCA IN EFFECT
FOR ALL WATERS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BELOW SCA LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH GRADUAL SUBSIDING SEAS.
FREEZING SPRAY DIMINISHING.

DIMINISHING NW WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS MOSTLY BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS...EXCEPT SUBSIDING TO NEAR 5 FT OVER E WATERS TOWARD
DAYBREAK THU.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...
CONDITIONS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ON THURSDAY...
THOUGH S WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KT THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY...
LOW PRES WILL CROSS THE WATERS. EXPECT REDUCED VSBYS IN SNOW.
EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO NW BY FRI NIGHT...INCREASING TO 25-35
KT...SO GALES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. SEAS ALSO BUILD UP TO 6-8 FT
OVER THE OPEN WATERS. FREEZING SPRAY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FRI
NIGHT.

SATURDAY...NW GALES EXPECTED WITH POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY. SEAS REMAIN HIGH...POSSIBLY UP TO 7-9 FT ON THE EXPOSED
WATERS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS EARLY
SUNDAY...BUT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANTICIPATE POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE EARLY MORNING
HIGH TIDE ALONG NORTH AND NORTHEAST FACING SHORELINES AS WELL AS
SOME ADDITIONAL EROSION. IMPACTS FOR THIS TIDE CYCLE WILL BE MUCH
LESS THAN WHAT WE EXPERIENCED DURING TUESDAY/S HIGH TIDES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ019-
     022-024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ232>235-237.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231-
     251-255-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KJC



000
FXUS61 KBOX 281029
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
529 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA TODAY. OTHER
THAN A FEW OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE CAPE AND
NANTUCKET...IT WILL BE DRY AND COLD AS THE CLEANUP BEGINS. CLIPPER
TYPE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES...BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY...BLUSTERY
AND FRIGID CONDITIONS MOVE IN FOR THIS WEEKEND. A THIRD STORM MAY
AFFECT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS COMMA HEAD LOSING ITS PUNCH ACROSS NEW ENG AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. SNOW BANDS HAVE WEAKENED
CONSIDERABLY ACROSS E MA AND LIGHT SNOW WILL COME TO AN END BEFORE
DAYBREAK WITH EXCEPTION OF CAPE COD WHERE OCEAN EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP.

FOR TODAY...SCT OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER THE OUTER CAPE. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES OVER THE WATER WITH DELTA T FROM SST TO TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER EXCEEDING 20C WHICH IS QUITE UNSTABLE. HOWEVER...NW
TRAJECTORY AND SHALLOW MIXED LAYER WILL LIMIT AREAL EXTENT
SOMEWHAT. COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL COATING TO AN INCH OVER THE
OUTER CAPE. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO PTSUNNY
SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR THE
CAPE/ISLANDS WHERE CLEARING WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL EVENING. HIGH
TEMPS WILL REACH LOW/MID 20S...EXCEPT UPPER TEENS HIGHER TERRAIN
IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN MA. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH WILL
RESULT IN WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS DEVELOPING. WITH DEEP FRESH SNOWPACK...THE STAGE WILL
BE SET FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A VERY COLD NIGHT. LEANED
TOWARD COLDER MOS GUIDANCE AND UNDERCUT BY 2-3F WHICH YIELDS MINS
IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...EXCEPT TEENS
CAPE/ISLANDS. COLDEST MINS WILL BE ACROSS W MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

OVERVIEW...
ACTIVE BUT PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS ACROSS THE
LOWER 48 THROUGH THIS LONG TERM PERIOD. FIRST NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE WORKS OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY...CROSSING INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...POSSIBLY LINGERING ALONG
THE E COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL USHER IN ARCTIC AIR FOR THIS
WEEKEND ALONG WITH BLUSTERY WINDS AND FRIGID WIND CHILLS. A PAIR
OF H5 SHORT WAVES MAY MERGE AS THEY APPROACH THE E COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.

WHILE OPERATIONAL MODELS DID SHOW TIMING AND TRACK DIFFERENCES
ESPECIALLY WITH THE POSSIBLE LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM...USED AN OVERALL
MODEL BLEND INCLUDING ENSEMBLES. THIS GAVE GOOD CONTINUITY WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...
HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS IN FAST UPPER FLOW. WILL SEE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE RIDGE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH A LIGHT S-SW WIND FLOW SETTING UP. CLOUDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. EXPECT HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...
PRETTY VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE WITH CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WORKING E
OUT OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM
WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AS THE SHORT WAVE BEGINS
TO NEGATIVE TILT AND CUTOFF...BUT THIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAPPEN
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW DOES NOT DEEPEN UNTIL LATER
FRIDAY...WHICH WILL BE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY THEN. HOWEVER...
THE LOW LOOKS TO SPIN THERE FRI NIGHT AS IT DEEPENS...WHICH MAY
KEEP MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN AREAS.

WITH MILDER AIR WORKING INTO THE DEVELOPING LOW FRIDAY...LOOKS
LIKE THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF MIXED RAIN/SNOW OR EVEN A BRIEF
CHANGE TO RAIN ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION
THOUGH NOT NEARLY AS HIGH AS THE BLIZZARD. TOTAL QPF LOOKS TO BE
FROM 0.15 TO 0.25 INCHES ACROSS MOST AREAS...BUT WILL SEE SOME
ENHANCEMENT ACROSS E COASTAL AREAS AS THE LOW FORMS WITH QPF
POSSIBLY UP TO 0.40 INCHES. WITH THE COLD AIR IN PLACE...WILL
LIKELY SEE SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM 2-4 INCHES BUT COULD SEE A BIT
MORE ACROSS NE MA CLOSER TO THE DEVELOPING LOW WITH SOME SNOW
LINGERING FRI NIGHT.

WITH STRONG PRESSURE FALLS AS THE LOW DEVELOPS OFFSHORE...EXPECT
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BRINGING INCREASING NW WINDS BEHIND THE
STORM LATER FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTS UP TO 25-35 KT
AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT...BRINGING IN ARCTIC AIR AS WELL AS LOW
WIND CHILL READINGS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT PLUNGE TO BELOW ZERO ACROSS
THE HIGHER INLAND TERRAIN AS WELL AS THE E SLOPES OF THE
BERKSHIRES TO 10-15 ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW TEMPS AND BLUSTERY WINDS MAY MEAN VERY
LOW WIND CHILL READINGS. ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE INTERIOR.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
HIGH PRES BEGINS TO SHIFT E DURING SAT...BUT THE DEPARTING STORM
INTO THE MARITIMES WILL CAUSE BLUSTERY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
ARCTIC AIRMASS ENTRENCHES ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION WITH H85 TEMPS
DROPPING TO -11C TO -16C. THIS TRANSLATES TO TEMPS ONLY RECOVERING
TO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 ON SAT...THOUGH WIND CHILLS WILL MAKE
IT FEEL MUCH COLDER.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SAT NIGHT...BUT MAY REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH WITH
THE DROPPING TEMPS TO SEE POSSIBLE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES. LOWS
WILL BOTTOM OUT FROM ZERO TO 5 BELOW WELL INLAND TO THE MID TEENS
ON THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

ANOTHER LOW BEGINS TO MOVE NE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRES CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION. NW WINDS DIMINISH
AND BEGIN TO BACK TO W LATE IN THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL ALSO INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...
PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS BEGIN TO APPROACH. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THESE SYSTEMS...AS WELL AS HOW SURFACE LOW
PRES FORMS AS IT APPROACHES. OF CONCERN IS THE TRACK OF THIS LOW
ON THE 00Z ECMWF...WHICH TAKES THE LOW S OF THE REGION MEANING
ANOTHER SHOT FOR MORE SNOW. THE 00Z GFS AND GGEM MODELS KEEP THE
LOW FURTHER INLAND...WITH POSSIBLE MIXTURE OR A CHANGE TO RAIN FOR
SOME LOCATIONS. MAY ALSO SEE DECENT RAINFALL WITH SOME INFUSION
OF SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE WITH THIS LOW. SOMETHING TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON...THOUGH AGAIN CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

TUESDAY...DEPENDING UPON THE DEPARTURE OF THE LOW...LOOKS LIKE
MORE COLD AIR WORKS IN AS ANOTHER HIGH APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SNOW ACROSS E MA WILL IMPROVE
08-09Z...EXCEPT LINGERING IN OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
CAPE COD. DIMINISHING WIND.

TODAY...VFR CIGS MOST AREAS...BUT MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH SCT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS OUTER CAPE COD AND ACK. NW GUSTS TO 20 KT.

TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
S. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS APPROACH DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT CIGS LOWER TO MVFR WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN SNOW. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TO VFR FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT NW WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25-30 KT...POSSIBLY HIGHER ALONG THE E COAST.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS 25-35 KNOTS SATURDAY...LIGHTER WINDS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

GALE FORCE GUSTS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER E WATERS AND SCA IN EFFECT
FOR ALL WATERS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BELOW SCA LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH GRADUAL SUBSIDING SEAS.
FREEZING SPRAY DIMINISHING.

DIMINISHING NW WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS MOSTLY BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS...EXCEPT SUBSIDING TO NEAR 5 FT OVER E WATERS TOWARD
DAYBREAK THU.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...
CONDITIONS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ON THURSDAY...
THOUGH S WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KT THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY...
LOW PRES WILL CROSS THE WATERS. EXPECT REDUCED VSBYS IN SNOW.
EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO NW BY FRI NIGHT...INCREASING TO 25-35
KT...SO GALES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. SEAS ALSO BUILD UP TO 6-8 FT
OVER THE OPEN WATERS. FREEZING SPRAY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FRI
NIGHT.

SATURDAY...NW GALES EXPECTED WITH POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY. SEAS REMAIN HIGH...POSSIBLY UP TO 7-9 FT ON THE EXPOSED
WATERS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS EARLY
SUNDAY...BUT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANTICIPATE POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE EARLY MORNING
HIGH TIDE ALONG NORTH AND NORTHEAST FACING SHORELINES AS WELL AS
SOME ADDITIONAL EROSION. IMPACTS FOR THIS TIDE CYCLE WILL BE MUCH
LESS THAN WHAT WE EXPERIENCED DURING TUESDAY/S HIGH TIDES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ019-
     022-024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ232>235-237.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231-
     251-255-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KJC




000
FXUS61 KBOX 280844
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
344 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA TODAY. OTHER
THAN A FEW OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE CAPE AND
NANTUCKET...IT WILL BE DRY AND COLD AS THE CLEANUP BEGINS. PLAINS
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. DRY BUT VERY COLD AIR LOOKS TO FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND. A
THIRD STORM MAY AFFECT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS COMMA HEAD LOSING ITS PUNCH ACROSS NEW ENG AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. SNOW BANDS HAVE WEAKENED
CONSIDERABLY ACROSS E MA AND LIGHT SNOW WILL COME TO AN END BEFORE
DAYBREAK WITH EXCEPTION OF CAPE COD WHERE OCEAN EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP.

FOR TODAY...SCT OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER THE OUTER CAPE. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES OVER THE WATER WITH DELTA T FROM SST TO TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER EXCEEDING 20C WHICH IS QUITE UNSTABLE. HOWEVER...NW
TRAJECTORY AND SHALLOW MIXED LAYER WILL LIMIT AREAL EXTENT
SOMEWHAT. COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL COATING TO AN INCH OVER THE
OUTER CAPE. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO PTSUNNY
SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR THE
CAPE/ISLANDS WHERE CLEARING WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL EVENING. HIGH
TEMPS WILL REACH LOW/MID 20S...EXCEPT UPPER TEENS HIGHER TERRAIN
IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN MA. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH WILL
RESULT IN WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS DEVELOPING. WITH DEEP FRESH SNOWPACK...THE STAGE WILL
BE SET FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A VERY COLD NIGHT. LEANED
TOWARD COLDER MOS GUIDANCE AND UNDERCUT BY 2-3F WHICH YIELDS MINS
IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...EXCEPT TEENS
CAPE/ISLANDS. COLDEST MINS WILL BE ACROSS W MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WILL PUSH SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE USA.
ONE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENTERED THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY
AND WILL REACH NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE FROM CALIFORNIA MAY MERGE WITH IT WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY. ANOTHER PAIR OF SHORTWAVES DIG OVER THE PLAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND AND APPROACH THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.

THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THE BROAD PORTRAIT OF WEATHER
SYSTEMS THESE NEXT SEVEN DAYS BUT DIFFER ON DETAILS SUCH AS
TIMING. WE OPTED FOR A BLEND OF MODEL DATA FOR THIS FORECAST.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND SHOULD PROVIDE A PERIOD
OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE
NUMBERS BELOW ZERO WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE COLDER LOCATIONS TO A
SIMILAR RANGE OVERNIGHT. IF THERE ARE POTENTIAL PROBLEMS IN THE
FORECAST...IT WOULD BE THAT MINS MAY BE 2-4F TOO WARM IN THE
NORMAL COLD SPOTS OF THE EAST IF THEY RADIATE MORE EFFECTIVELY.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THURSDAY BUT STILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF
DRY AIR FOR NEW ENGLAND. AS IT SHIFTS OFFSHORE...A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING IN INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT AND THUS INCREASING
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. ANY PCPN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER DARK.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE
CLIPPER AND SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE RACE EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY AND THEN REDEVELOP ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE GFS
HAS THE REDEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF OF MAINE WHILE THE ECMWF AND
GGEM SHOW THIS CLOSER TO 40N/70W. THE SOUTHERN SOLUTION IS CLOSER
TO THE DYNAMICALLY FAVORED LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET...AND
MAY RESULT IN MORE PCPN IF IT OCCURS. TEMPERATURE PROFILES FAVOR
SNOW ALTHOUGH SOME WARM INTRUSION MAY WARM THE CAPE/ISLANDS INTO
THE UPPER 30S AND PROVIDE A BRIEF CHANGE TO RAIN. THIS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED. THE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE
LOW LEAD TO THE REDUCED CONFIDENCE IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.

SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS AS THE STORM DEEPENS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL
TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BRING INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS
ON THE TRAILING SIDE OF THE STORM. COLD AIR THEN GETS DRAWN IN
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. TEMPS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE 30S DURING THE MORNING-MIDDAY AND 20S BY SUNSET.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
STRONG WINDS TRAILING THE STORM BRING INCOMING COLD AIR WITH
AIRMASS TEMPS REACHING THE SINGLE NUMBERS. THIS WILL BRING WIND
CHILLS BELOW ZERO. NORTHERN AND WESTERN WIND CHILLS SHOULD GO
BELOW 10 BELOW ZERO AND MAY REQUIRE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER
AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. TEMPS AT 925 MB WILL BE -13C TO
-17C...SO MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE CHALLENGED TO REACH THE 20S
MOST PLACES...BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN RI AND SOUTHEAST MASS.

THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY...AGAIN CREATING INCREASING
MOISTURE ALOFT WHILE DRY NEAR THE SURFACE. THIS WILL MEAN
INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPS A LITTLE LESS COLD
THAN ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...
NEXT PAIR OF SHORTWAVES APPROACH. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
GENERATES AN INVERTED TROUGH IN THE WESTERN GULF/MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION. THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE HELPS GENERATE LOW PRESSURE
IN THIS TROUGH AND SWINGS IT NORTHEAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. ALL
MOVE PCPN INTO NEW ENGLAND AND CONSENSUS KEEPS TEMPS COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW. BUT DIFFERENCES IN TRACK RANGING FROM ACROSS THE
BERKSHIRES /ECMWF/ TO ACROSS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK /GGEM/. AND
THIS IS A DAY 5 FORECAST. SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH 925 MB TEMPS AGAIN
FALLING TO AROUND -15 TO -17C. ANOTHER CHILLY DRY WEATHER DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SNOW ACROSS E MA WILL IMPROVE
08-09Z...EXCEPT LINGERING IN OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
CAPE COD. DIMINISHING WIND.

TODAY...VFR CIGS MOST AREAS...BUT MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH SCT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS OUTER CAPE COD AND ACK. NW GUSTS TO 20 KT.

TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...VFR WITH WIND BECOMING LIGHT SOUTH ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...CIGS LOWER TO MVFR WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN
SNOW. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ALSO SHIFT
TO NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF AT LEAST 25 KNOTS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KNOTS
SATURDAY...LIGHTER WINDS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

GALE FORCE GUSTS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER E WATERS AND SCA IN EFFECT
FOR ALL WATERS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BELOW SCA LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH GRADUAL SUBSIDING SEAS.
FREEZING SPRAY DIMINISHING.

DIMINISHING NW WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS MOSTLY BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS...EXCEPT SUBSIDING TO NEAR 5 FT OVER E WATERS TOWARD
DAYBREAK THU.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...
CONDITIONS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY...
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY IN SNOW.
ONCE THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS...WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST
AND INCREASE TO 30-35 KNOTS. THIS IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE GALE
THRESHOLD SO THAT LOW-END GALES ARE A POSSIBILITY. THIS WILL BE
MONITORED.

SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 5 TO 8 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS. THE
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING IN PLENTY OF COLD AIR. THIS WILL CAUSE
OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF OUTER CAPE COD...AND FREEZING SPRAY
WILL AGAIN DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY...NW GALES EXPECTED WITH POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY. SEAS REMAIN HIGH...POSSIBLY UP TO 7-9 FT ON THE EXPOSED
WATERS.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BUT
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANTICIPATE POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE EARLY MORNING
HIGH TIDE ALONG NORTH AND NORTHEAST FACING SHORELINES AS WELL AS
SOME ADDITIONAL EROSION. IMPACTS FOR THIS TIDE CYCLE WILL BE MUCH
LESS THAN WHAT WE EXPERIENCED DURING TUESDAY/S HIGH TIDES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ019-
     022-024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ232>235-237.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231-
     251-255-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/KJC
MARINE...WTB/KJC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 280844
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
344 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA TODAY. OTHER
THAN A FEW OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE CAPE AND
NANTUCKET...IT WILL BE DRY AND COLD AS THE CLEANUP BEGINS. PLAINS
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. DRY BUT VERY COLD AIR LOOKS TO FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND. A
THIRD STORM MAY AFFECT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS COMMA HEAD LOSING ITS PUNCH ACROSS NEW ENG AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. SNOW BANDS HAVE WEAKENED
CONSIDERABLY ACROSS E MA AND LIGHT SNOW WILL COME TO AN END BEFORE
DAYBREAK WITH EXCEPTION OF CAPE COD WHERE OCEAN EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP.

FOR TODAY...SCT OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER THE OUTER CAPE. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES OVER THE WATER WITH DELTA T FROM SST TO TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER EXCEEDING 20C WHICH IS QUITE UNSTABLE. HOWEVER...NW
TRAJECTORY AND SHALLOW MIXED LAYER WILL LIMIT AREAL EXTENT
SOMEWHAT. COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL COATING TO AN INCH OVER THE
OUTER CAPE. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO PTSUNNY
SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR THE
CAPE/ISLANDS WHERE CLEARING WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL EVENING. HIGH
TEMPS WILL REACH LOW/MID 20S...EXCEPT UPPER TEENS HIGHER TERRAIN
IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN MA. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH WILL
RESULT IN WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS DEVELOPING. WITH DEEP FRESH SNOWPACK...THE STAGE WILL
BE SET FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A VERY COLD NIGHT. LEANED
TOWARD COLDER MOS GUIDANCE AND UNDERCUT BY 2-3F WHICH YIELDS MINS
IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...EXCEPT TEENS
CAPE/ISLANDS. COLDEST MINS WILL BE ACROSS W MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WILL PUSH SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE USA.
ONE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENTERED THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY
AND WILL REACH NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE FROM CALIFORNIA MAY MERGE WITH IT WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY. ANOTHER PAIR OF SHORTWAVES DIG OVER THE PLAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND AND APPROACH THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.

THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THE BROAD PORTRAIT OF WEATHER
SYSTEMS THESE NEXT SEVEN DAYS BUT DIFFER ON DETAILS SUCH AS
TIMING. WE OPTED FOR A BLEND OF MODEL DATA FOR THIS FORECAST.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND SHOULD PROVIDE A PERIOD
OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE
NUMBERS BELOW ZERO WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE COLDER LOCATIONS TO A
SIMILAR RANGE OVERNIGHT. IF THERE ARE POTENTIAL PROBLEMS IN THE
FORECAST...IT WOULD BE THAT MINS MAY BE 2-4F TOO WARM IN THE
NORMAL COLD SPOTS OF THE EAST IF THEY RADIATE MORE EFFECTIVELY.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THURSDAY BUT STILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF
DRY AIR FOR NEW ENGLAND. AS IT SHIFTS OFFSHORE...A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING IN INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT AND THUS INCREASING
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. ANY PCPN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER DARK.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE
CLIPPER AND SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE RACE EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY AND THEN REDEVELOP ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE GFS
HAS THE REDEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF OF MAINE WHILE THE ECMWF AND
GGEM SHOW THIS CLOSER TO 40N/70W. THE SOUTHERN SOLUTION IS CLOSER
TO THE DYNAMICALLY FAVORED LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET...AND
MAY RESULT IN MORE PCPN IF IT OCCURS. TEMPERATURE PROFILES FAVOR
SNOW ALTHOUGH SOME WARM INTRUSION MAY WARM THE CAPE/ISLANDS INTO
THE UPPER 30S AND PROVIDE A BRIEF CHANGE TO RAIN. THIS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED. THE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE
LOW LEAD TO THE REDUCED CONFIDENCE IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.

SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS AS THE STORM DEEPENS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL
TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BRING INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS
ON THE TRAILING SIDE OF THE STORM. COLD AIR THEN GETS DRAWN IN
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. TEMPS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE 30S DURING THE MORNING-MIDDAY AND 20S BY SUNSET.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
STRONG WINDS TRAILING THE STORM BRING INCOMING COLD AIR WITH
AIRMASS TEMPS REACHING THE SINGLE NUMBERS. THIS WILL BRING WIND
CHILLS BELOW ZERO. NORTHERN AND WESTERN WIND CHILLS SHOULD GO
BELOW 10 BELOW ZERO AND MAY REQUIRE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER
AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. TEMPS AT 925 MB WILL BE -13C TO
-17C...SO MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE CHALLENGED TO REACH THE 20S
MOST PLACES...BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN RI AND SOUTHEAST MASS.

THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY...AGAIN CREATING INCREASING
MOISTURE ALOFT WHILE DRY NEAR THE SURFACE. THIS WILL MEAN
INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPS A LITTLE LESS COLD
THAN ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...
NEXT PAIR OF SHORTWAVES APPROACH. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
GENERATES AN INVERTED TROUGH IN THE WESTERN GULF/MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION. THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE HELPS GENERATE LOW PRESSURE
IN THIS TROUGH AND SWINGS IT NORTHEAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. ALL
MOVE PCPN INTO NEW ENGLAND AND CONSENSUS KEEPS TEMPS COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW. BUT DIFFERENCES IN TRACK RANGING FROM ACROSS THE
BERKSHIRES /ECMWF/ TO ACROSS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK /GGEM/. AND
THIS IS A DAY 5 FORECAST. SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH 925 MB TEMPS AGAIN
FALLING TO AROUND -15 TO -17C. ANOTHER CHILLY DRY WEATHER DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SNOW ACROSS E MA WILL IMPROVE
08-09Z...EXCEPT LINGERING IN OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
CAPE COD. DIMINISHING WIND.

TODAY...VFR CIGS MOST AREAS...BUT MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH SCT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS OUTER CAPE COD AND ACK. NW GUSTS TO 20 KT.

TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...VFR WITH WIND BECOMING LIGHT SOUTH ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...CIGS LOWER TO MVFR WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN
SNOW. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ALSO SHIFT
TO NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF AT LEAST 25 KNOTS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KNOTS
SATURDAY...LIGHTER WINDS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

GALE FORCE GUSTS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER E WATERS AND SCA IN EFFECT
FOR ALL WATERS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BELOW SCA LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH GRADUAL SUBSIDING SEAS.
FREEZING SPRAY DIMINISHING.

DIMINISHING NW WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS MOSTLY BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS...EXCEPT SUBSIDING TO NEAR 5 FT OVER E WATERS TOWARD
DAYBREAK THU.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...
CONDITIONS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY...
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY IN SNOW.
ONCE THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS...WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST
AND INCREASE TO 30-35 KNOTS. THIS IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE GALE
THRESHOLD SO THAT LOW-END GALES ARE A POSSIBILITY. THIS WILL BE
MONITORED.

SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 5 TO 8 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS. THE
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING IN PLENTY OF COLD AIR. THIS WILL CAUSE
OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF OUTER CAPE COD...AND FREEZING SPRAY
WILL AGAIN DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY...NW GALES EXPECTED WITH POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY. SEAS REMAIN HIGH...POSSIBLY UP TO 7-9 FT ON THE EXPOSED
WATERS.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BUT
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANTICIPATE POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE EARLY MORNING
HIGH TIDE ALONG NORTH AND NORTHEAST FACING SHORELINES AS WELL AS
SOME ADDITIONAL EROSION. IMPACTS FOR THIS TIDE CYCLE WILL BE MUCH
LESS THAN WHAT WE EXPERIENCED DURING TUESDAY/S HIGH TIDES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ019-
     022-024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ232>235-237.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231-
     251-255-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/KJC
MARINE...WTB/KJC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 280610
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
110 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE BLIZZARD CONTINUING TO WIND DOWN THIS EVENING...BUT IMPROVEMENT
WILL TAKE THE LONGEST ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.
OTHER THAN A FEW OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
CAPE AND NANTUCKET...IT WILL BE DRY AND COLD FOR THE REST OF THE
REGION AS THE CLEANUP BEGINS.  PLAINS LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. DRY BUT VERY COLD
AIR LOOKS TO FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND. A THIRD STORM MAY AFFECT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
110 AM UPDATE...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IN THE GULF OF MAINE AND APPROACHING NOVA
SCOTIA WITH COMMA HEAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN NEW ENG.
A FEW HEAVIER BANDS STILL CLIPPING PORTIONS OF E COASTAL MA AND
CAPE COD BUT THIS WILL BE MOVING OUT NEXT COUPLE HOURS. AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. ALLOWED THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AND HANDLING CURRENT SNOW WITH A SPS.

THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ALL
NIGHT ACROSS CAPE COD.

WINDS ARE STARTING TO DIMINISH AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...

SCATTERED OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
CAPE/NANTUCKET INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH NNW WINDS AND AN 850T/OCEAN
DIFFERENTIAL OF 20C.  ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT IN
THIS REGION.  ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.  PARTIAL SUNSHINE SHOULD DEVELOP FROM
WEST TO EAST LATER IN THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.  HIGH
TEMPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S AS THE CLEANUP BEGINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WILL PUSH SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE USA.
ONE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENTERED THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY
AND WILL REACH NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE FROM CALIFORNIA MAY MERGE WITH IT WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY. ANOTHER PAIR OF SHORTWAVES DIG OVER THE PLAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND AND APPROACH THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.

THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THE BROAD PORTRAIT OF WEATHER
SYSTEMS THESE NEXT SEVEN DAYS BUT DIFFER ON DETAILS SUCH AS
TIMING. WE OPTED FOR A BLEND OF MODEL DATA FOR THIS FORECAST.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND SHOULD PROVIDE A PERIOD
OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE
NUMBERS BELOW ZERO WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE COLDER LOCATIONS TO A
SIMILAR RANGE OVERNIGHT. IF THERE ARE POTENTIAL PROBLEMS IN THE
FORECAST...IT WOULD BE THAT MINS MAY BE 2-4F TOO WARM IN THE
NORMAL COLD SPOTS OF THE EAST IF THEY RADIATE MORE EFFECTIVELY.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THURSDAY BUT STILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF
DRY AIR FOR NEW ENGLAND. AS IT SHIFTS OFFSHORE...A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING IN INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT AND THUS INCREASING
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. ANY PCPN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER DARK.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE
CLIPPER AND SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE RACE EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY AND THEN REDEVELOP ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE GFS
HAS THE REDEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF OF MAINE WHILE THE ECMWF AND
GGEM SHOW THIS CLOSER TO 40N/70W. THE SOUTHERN SOLUTION IS CLOSER
TO THE DYNAMICALLY FAVORED LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET...AND
MAY RESULT IN MORE PCPN IF IT OCCURS. TEMPERATURE PROFILES FAVOR
SNOW ALTHOUGH SOME WARM INTRUSION MAY WARM THE CAPE/ISLANDS INTO
THE UPPER 30S AND PROVIDE A BRIEF CHANGE TO RAIN. THIS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED. THE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE
LOW LEAD TO THE REDUCED CONFIDENCE IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.

SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS AS THE STORM DEEPENS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL
TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BRING INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS
ON THE TRAILING SIDE OF THE STORM. COLD AIR THEN GETS DRAWN IN
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. TEMPS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE 30S DURING THE MORNING-MIDDAY AND 20S BY SUNSET.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
STRONG WINDS TRAILING THE STORM BRING INCOMING COLD AIR WITH
AIRMASS TEMPS REACHING THE SINGLE NUMBERS. THIS WILL BRING WIND
CHILLS BELOW ZERO. NORTHERN AND WESTERN WIND CHILLS SHOULD GO
BELOW 10 BELOW ZERO AND MAY REQUIRE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER
AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. TEMPS AT 925 MB WILL BE -13C TO
-17C...SO MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE CHALLENGED TO REACH THE 20S
MOST PLACES...BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN RI AND SOUTHEAST MASS.

THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY...AGAIN CREATING INCREASING
MOISTURE ALOFT WHILE DRY NEAR THE SURFACE. THIS WILL MEAN
INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPS A LITTLE LESS COLD
THAN ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...
NEXT PAIR OF SHORTWAVES APPROACH. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
GENERATES AN INVERTED TROUGH IN THE WESTERN GULF/MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION. THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE HELPS GENERATE LOW PRESSURE
IN THIS TROUGH AND SWINGS IT NORTHEAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. ALL
MOVE PCPN INTO NEW ENGLAND AND CONSENSUS KEEPS TEMPS COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW. BUT DIFFERENCES IN TRACK RANGING FROM ACROSS THE
BERKSHIRES /ECMWF/ TO ACROSS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK /GGEM/. AND
THIS IS A DAY 5 FORECAST. SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH 925 MB TEMPS AGAIN
FALLING TO AROUND -15 TO -17C. ANOTHER CHILLY DRY WEATHER DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SNOW ACROSS E MA WILL IMPROVE
08-09Z...EXCEPT LINGERING IN OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
CAPE COD. DIMINISHING WIND.

TODAY...VFR CIGS MOST AREAS...BUT MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH SCT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS OUTER CAPE COD AND ACK. NW GUSTS TO 20 KT.

TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...VFR WITH WIND BECOMING LIGHT SOUTH ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...CIGS LOWER TO MVFR WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN
SNOW. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ALSO SHIFT
TO NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF AT LEAST 25 KNOTS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KNOTS
SATURDAY...LIGHTER WINDS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

***GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TONIGHT BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DANGEROUS
  FOR MARINERS UNTIL WEDNESDAY***

POWERFUL STORM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION AND FINALLY LIFTS
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY.  STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS
CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...BUT SHOULD SEE THINGS
LOWER TO GALES NEAR MIDNIGHT.  GALES THEN LOWER TO SCA HEADLINES WED
MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY WEAKENS.  25 TO 30 FOOT SEAS
ACROSS THE THE EASTERN WATERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND
FINALLY DROP BELOW 10 FEET SOMETIME WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...

DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. COULD BE SOME 25
KNOT GUSTS IN THE EVENING BUT OTHERWISE WINDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN
THAT THRESHOLD. LINGERING 5 TO 7 FOOT SEAS ON MASSACHUSETTS BAY
AND THE OUTER WATERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY...
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY IN SNOW.
ONCE THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS...WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST
AND INCREASE TO 30-35 KNOTS. THIS IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE GALE
THRESHOLD SO THAT LOW-END GALES ARE A POSSIBILITY. THIS WILL BE
MONITORED.

SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 5 TO 8 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS. THE
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING IN PLENTY OF COLD AIR. THIS WILL CAUSE
OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF OUTER CAPE COD...AND FREEZING SPRAY
WILL AGAIN DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY...NW GALES EXPECTED WITH POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY. SEAS REMAIN HIGH...POSSIBLY UP TO 7-9 FT ON THE EXPOSED
WATERS.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BUT
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE
CYCLE...GENERALLY BETWEEN 530 AM AND 630 AM...ANTICIPATE POCKETS
OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG NORTH AND NORTHEAST FACING
SHORELINES AS WELL AS SOME ADDITIONAL EROSION. IMPACTS FOR THE
EARLY WEDNESDAY HIGH TIDE WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN WHAT WE HAVE
EXPERIENCED OR WILL HAVE EXPERIENCED DURING THE HIGH TIDES TODAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ019-
     022-024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ231-
     232.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     233>237-255-256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-254.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/FRANK
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...KJC/WTB
MARINE...WTB/FRANK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 280610
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
110 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE BLIZZARD CONTINUING TO WIND DOWN THIS EVENING...BUT IMPROVEMENT
WILL TAKE THE LONGEST ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.
OTHER THAN A FEW OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
CAPE AND NANTUCKET...IT WILL BE DRY AND COLD FOR THE REST OF THE
REGION AS THE CLEANUP BEGINS.  PLAINS LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. DRY BUT VERY COLD
AIR LOOKS TO FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND. A THIRD STORM MAY AFFECT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
110 AM UPDATE...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IN THE GULF OF MAINE AND APPROACHING NOVA
SCOTIA WITH COMMA HEAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN NEW ENG.
A FEW HEAVIER BANDS STILL CLIPPING PORTIONS OF E COASTAL MA AND
CAPE COD BUT THIS WILL BE MOVING OUT NEXT COUPLE HOURS. AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. ALLOWED THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AND HANDLING CURRENT SNOW WITH A SPS.

THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ALL
NIGHT ACROSS CAPE COD.

WINDS ARE STARTING TO DIMINISH AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...

SCATTERED OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
CAPE/NANTUCKET INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH NNW WINDS AND AN 850T/OCEAN
DIFFERENTIAL OF 20C.  ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT IN
THIS REGION.  ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.  PARTIAL SUNSHINE SHOULD DEVELOP FROM
WEST TO EAST LATER IN THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.  HIGH
TEMPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S AS THE CLEANUP BEGINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WILL PUSH SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE USA.
ONE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENTERED THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY
AND WILL REACH NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE FROM CALIFORNIA MAY MERGE WITH IT WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY. ANOTHER PAIR OF SHORTWAVES DIG OVER THE PLAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND AND APPROACH THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.

THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THE BROAD PORTRAIT OF WEATHER
SYSTEMS THESE NEXT SEVEN DAYS BUT DIFFER ON DETAILS SUCH AS
TIMING. WE OPTED FOR A BLEND OF MODEL DATA FOR THIS FORECAST.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND SHOULD PROVIDE A PERIOD
OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE
NUMBERS BELOW ZERO WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE COLDER LOCATIONS TO A
SIMILAR RANGE OVERNIGHT. IF THERE ARE POTENTIAL PROBLEMS IN THE
FORECAST...IT WOULD BE THAT MINS MAY BE 2-4F TOO WARM IN THE
NORMAL COLD SPOTS OF THE EAST IF THEY RADIATE MORE EFFECTIVELY.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THURSDAY BUT STILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF
DRY AIR FOR NEW ENGLAND. AS IT SHIFTS OFFSHORE...A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING IN INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT AND THUS INCREASING
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. ANY PCPN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER DARK.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE
CLIPPER AND SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE RACE EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY AND THEN REDEVELOP ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE GFS
HAS THE REDEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF OF MAINE WHILE THE ECMWF AND
GGEM SHOW THIS CLOSER TO 40N/70W. THE SOUTHERN SOLUTION IS CLOSER
TO THE DYNAMICALLY FAVORED LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET...AND
MAY RESULT IN MORE PCPN IF IT OCCURS. TEMPERATURE PROFILES FAVOR
SNOW ALTHOUGH SOME WARM INTRUSION MAY WARM THE CAPE/ISLANDS INTO
THE UPPER 30S AND PROVIDE A BRIEF CHANGE TO RAIN. THIS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED. THE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE
LOW LEAD TO THE REDUCED CONFIDENCE IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.

SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS AS THE STORM DEEPENS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL
TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BRING INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS
ON THE TRAILING SIDE OF THE STORM. COLD AIR THEN GETS DRAWN IN
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. TEMPS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE 30S DURING THE MORNING-MIDDAY AND 20S BY SUNSET.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
STRONG WINDS TRAILING THE STORM BRING INCOMING COLD AIR WITH
AIRMASS TEMPS REACHING THE SINGLE NUMBERS. THIS WILL BRING WIND
CHILLS BELOW ZERO. NORTHERN AND WESTERN WIND CHILLS SHOULD GO
BELOW 10 BELOW ZERO AND MAY REQUIRE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER
AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. TEMPS AT 925 MB WILL BE -13C TO
-17C...SO MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE CHALLENGED TO REACH THE 20S
MOST PLACES...BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN RI AND SOUTHEAST MASS.

THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY...AGAIN CREATING INCREASING
MOISTURE ALOFT WHILE DRY NEAR THE SURFACE. THIS WILL MEAN
INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPS A LITTLE LESS COLD
THAN ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...
NEXT PAIR OF SHORTWAVES APPROACH. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
GENERATES AN INVERTED TROUGH IN THE WESTERN GULF/MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION. THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE HELPS GENERATE LOW PRESSURE
IN THIS TROUGH AND SWINGS IT NORTHEAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. ALL
MOVE PCPN INTO NEW ENGLAND AND CONSENSUS KEEPS TEMPS COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW. BUT DIFFERENCES IN TRACK RANGING FROM ACROSS THE
BERKSHIRES /ECMWF/ TO ACROSS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK /GGEM/. AND
THIS IS A DAY 5 FORECAST. SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH 925 MB TEMPS AGAIN
FALLING TO AROUND -15 TO -17C. ANOTHER CHILLY DRY WEATHER DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SNOW ACROSS E MA WILL IMPROVE
08-09Z...EXCEPT LINGERING IN OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
CAPE COD. DIMINISHING WIND.

TODAY...VFR CIGS MOST AREAS...BUT MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH SCT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS OUTER CAPE COD AND ACK. NW GUSTS TO 20 KT.

TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...VFR WITH WIND BECOMING LIGHT SOUTH ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...CIGS LOWER TO MVFR WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN
SNOW. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ALSO SHIFT
TO NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF AT LEAST 25 KNOTS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KNOTS
SATURDAY...LIGHTER WINDS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

***GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TONIGHT BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DANGEROUS
  FOR MARINERS UNTIL WEDNESDAY***

POWERFUL STORM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION AND FINALLY LIFTS
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY.  STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS
CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...BUT SHOULD SEE THINGS
LOWER TO GALES NEAR MIDNIGHT.  GALES THEN LOWER TO SCA HEADLINES WED
MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY WEAKENS.  25 TO 30 FOOT SEAS
ACROSS THE THE EASTERN WATERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND
FINALLY DROP BELOW 10 FEET SOMETIME WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...

DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. COULD BE SOME 25
KNOT GUSTS IN THE EVENING BUT OTHERWISE WINDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN
THAT THRESHOLD. LINGERING 5 TO 7 FOOT SEAS ON MASSACHUSETTS BAY
AND THE OUTER WATERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY...
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY IN SNOW.
ONCE THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS...WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST
AND INCREASE TO 30-35 KNOTS. THIS IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE GALE
THRESHOLD SO THAT LOW-END GALES ARE A POSSIBILITY. THIS WILL BE
MONITORED.

SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 5 TO 8 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS. THE
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING IN PLENTY OF COLD AIR. THIS WILL CAUSE
OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF OUTER CAPE COD...AND FREEZING SPRAY
WILL AGAIN DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY...NW GALES EXPECTED WITH POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY. SEAS REMAIN HIGH...POSSIBLY UP TO 7-9 FT ON THE EXPOSED
WATERS.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BUT
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE
CYCLE...GENERALLY BETWEEN 530 AM AND 630 AM...ANTICIPATE POCKETS
OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG NORTH AND NORTHEAST FACING
SHORELINES AS WELL AS SOME ADDITIONAL EROSION. IMPACTS FOR THE
EARLY WEDNESDAY HIGH TIDE WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN WHAT WE HAVE
EXPERIENCED OR WILL HAVE EXPERIENCED DURING THE HIGH TIDES TODAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ019-
     022-024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ231-
     232.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     233>237-255-256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-254.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/FRANK
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...KJC/WTB
MARINE...WTB/FRANK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 280610
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
110 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE BLIZZARD CONTINUING TO WIND DOWN THIS EVENING...BUT IMPROVEMENT
WILL TAKE THE LONGEST ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.
OTHER THAN A FEW OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
CAPE AND NANTUCKET...IT WILL BE DRY AND COLD FOR THE REST OF THE
REGION AS THE CLEANUP BEGINS.  PLAINS LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. DRY BUT VERY COLD
AIR LOOKS TO FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND. A THIRD STORM MAY AFFECT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
110 AM UPDATE...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IN THE GULF OF MAINE AND APPROACHING NOVA
SCOTIA WITH COMMA HEAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN NEW ENG.
A FEW HEAVIER BANDS STILL CLIPPING PORTIONS OF E COASTAL MA AND
CAPE COD BUT THIS WILL BE MOVING OUT NEXT COUPLE HOURS. AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. ALLOWED THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AND HANDLING CURRENT SNOW WITH A SPS.

THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ALL
NIGHT ACROSS CAPE COD.

WINDS ARE STARTING TO DIMINISH AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...

SCATTERED OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
CAPE/NANTUCKET INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH NNW WINDS AND AN 850T/OCEAN
DIFFERENTIAL OF 20C.  ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT IN
THIS REGION.  ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.  PARTIAL SUNSHINE SHOULD DEVELOP FROM
WEST TO EAST LATER IN THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.  HIGH
TEMPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S AS THE CLEANUP BEGINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WILL PUSH SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE USA.
ONE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENTERED THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY
AND WILL REACH NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE FROM CALIFORNIA MAY MERGE WITH IT WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY. ANOTHER PAIR OF SHORTWAVES DIG OVER THE PLAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND AND APPROACH THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.

THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THE BROAD PORTRAIT OF WEATHER
SYSTEMS THESE NEXT SEVEN DAYS BUT DIFFER ON DETAILS SUCH AS
TIMING. WE OPTED FOR A BLEND OF MODEL DATA FOR THIS FORECAST.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND SHOULD PROVIDE A PERIOD
OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE
NUMBERS BELOW ZERO WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE COLDER LOCATIONS TO A
SIMILAR RANGE OVERNIGHT. IF THERE ARE POTENTIAL PROBLEMS IN THE
FORECAST...IT WOULD BE THAT MINS MAY BE 2-4F TOO WARM IN THE
NORMAL COLD SPOTS OF THE EAST IF THEY RADIATE MORE EFFECTIVELY.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THURSDAY BUT STILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF
DRY AIR FOR NEW ENGLAND. AS IT SHIFTS OFFSHORE...A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING IN INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT AND THUS INCREASING
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. ANY PCPN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER DARK.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE
CLIPPER AND SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE RACE EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY AND THEN REDEVELOP ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE GFS
HAS THE REDEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF OF MAINE WHILE THE ECMWF AND
GGEM SHOW THIS CLOSER TO 40N/70W. THE SOUTHERN SOLUTION IS CLOSER
TO THE DYNAMICALLY FAVORED LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET...AND
MAY RESULT IN MORE PCPN IF IT OCCURS. TEMPERATURE PROFILES FAVOR
SNOW ALTHOUGH SOME WARM INTRUSION MAY WARM THE CAPE/ISLANDS INTO
THE UPPER 30S AND PROVIDE A BRIEF CHANGE TO RAIN. THIS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED. THE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE
LOW LEAD TO THE REDUCED CONFIDENCE IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.

SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS AS THE STORM DEEPENS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL
TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BRING INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS
ON THE TRAILING SIDE OF THE STORM. COLD AIR THEN GETS DRAWN IN
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. TEMPS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE 30S DURING THE MORNING-MIDDAY AND 20S BY SUNSET.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
STRONG WINDS TRAILING THE STORM BRING INCOMING COLD AIR WITH
AIRMASS TEMPS REACHING THE SINGLE NUMBERS. THIS WILL BRING WIND
CHILLS BELOW ZERO. NORTHERN AND WESTERN WIND CHILLS SHOULD GO
BELOW 10 BELOW ZERO AND MAY REQUIRE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER
AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. TEMPS AT 925 MB WILL BE -13C TO
-17C...SO MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE CHALLENGED TO REACH THE 20S
MOST PLACES...BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN RI AND SOUTHEAST MASS.

THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY...AGAIN CREATING INCREASING
MOISTURE ALOFT WHILE DRY NEAR THE SURFACE. THIS WILL MEAN
INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPS A LITTLE LESS COLD
THAN ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...
NEXT PAIR OF SHORTWAVES APPROACH. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
GENERATES AN INVERTED TROUGH IN THE WESTERN GULF/MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION. THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE HELPS GENERATE LOW PRESSURE
IN THIS TROUGH AND SWINGS IT NORTHEAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. ALL
MOVE PCPN INTO NEW ENGLAND AND CONSENSUS KEEPS TEMPS COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW. BUT DIFFERENCES IN TRACK RANGING FROM ACROSS THE
BERKSHIRES /ECMWF/ TO ACROSS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK /GGEM/. AND
THIS IS A DAY 5 FORECAST. SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH 925 MB TEMPS AGAIN
FALLING TO AROUND -15 TO -17C. ANOTHER CHILLY DRY WEATHER DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SNOW ACROSS E MA WILL IMPROVE
08-09Z...EXCEPT LINGERING IN OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
CAPE COD. DIMINISHING WIND.

TODAY...VFR CIGS MOST AREAS...BUT MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH SCT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS OUTER CAPE COD AND ACK. NW GUSTS TO 20 KT.

TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...VFR WITH WIND BECOMING LIGHT SOUTH ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...CIGS LOWER TO MVFR WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN
SNOW. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ALSO SHIFT
TO NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF AT LEAST 25 KNOTS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KNOTS
SATURDAY...LIGHTER WINDS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

***GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TONIGHT BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DANGEROUS
  FOR MARINERS UNTIL WEDNESDAY***

POWERFUL STORM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION AND FINALLY LIFTS
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY.  STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS
CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...BUT SHOULD SEE THINGS
LOWER TO GALES NEAR MIDNIGHT.  GALES THEN LOWER TO SCA HEADLINES WED
MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY WEAKENS.  25 TO 30 FOOT SEAS
ACROSS THE THE EASTERN WATERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND
FINALLY DROP BELOW 10 FEET SOMETIME WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...

DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. COULD BE SOME 25
KNOT GUSTS IN THE EVENING BUT OTHERWISE WINDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN
THAT THRESHOLD. LINGERING 5 TO 7 FOOT SEAS ON MASSACHUSETTS BAY
AND THE OUTER WATERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY...
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY IN SNOW.
ONCE THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS...WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST
AND INCREASE TO 30-35 KNOTS. THIS IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE GALE
THRESHOLD SO THAT LOW-END GALES ARE A POSSIBILITY. THIS WILL BE
MONITORED.

SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 5 TO 8 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS. THE
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING IN PLENTY OF COLD AIR. THIS WILL CAUSE
OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF OUTER CAPE COD...AND FREEZING SPRAY
WILL AGAIN DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY...NW GALES EXPECTED WITH POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY. SEAS REMAIN HIGH...POSSIBLY UP TO 7-9 FT ON THE EXPOSED
WATERS.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BUT
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE
CYCLE...GENERALLY BETWEEN 530 AM AND 630 AM...ANTICIPATE POCKETS
OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG NORTH AND NORTHEAST FACING
SHORELINES AS WELL AS SOME ADDITIONAL EROSION. IMPACTS FOR THE
EARLY WEDNESDAY HIGH TIDE WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN WHAT WE HAVE
EXPERIENCED OR WILL HAVE EXPERIENCED DURING THE HIGH TIDES TODAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ019-
     022-024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ231-
     232.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     233>237-255-256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-254.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/FRANK
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...KJC/WTB
MARINE...WTB/FRANK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 280610
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
110 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE BLIZZARD CONTINUING TO WIND DOWN THIS EVENING...BUT IMPROVEMENT
WILL TAKE THE LONGEST ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.
OTHER THAN A FEW OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
CAPE AND NANTUCKET...IT WILL BE DRY AND COLD FOR THE REST OF THE
REGION AS THE CLEANUP BEGINS.  PLAINS LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. DRY BUT VERY COLD
AIR LOOKS TO FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND. A THIRD STORM MAY AFFECT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
110 AM UPDATE...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IN THE GULF OF MAINE AND APPROACHING NOVA
SCOTIA WITH COMMA HEAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN NEW ENG.
A FEW HEAVIER BANDS STILL CLIPPING PORTIONS OF E COASTAL MA AND
CAPE COD BUT THIS WILL BE MOVING OUT NEXT COUPLE HOURS. AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. ALLOWED THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AND HANDLING CURRENT SNOW WITH A SPS.

THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ALL
NIGHT ACROSS CAPE COD.

WINDS ARE STARTING TO DIMINISH AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...

SCATTERED OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
CAPE/NANTUCKET INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH NNW WINDS AND AN 850T/OCEAN
DIFFERENTIAL OF 20C.  ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT IN
THIS REGION.  ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.  PARTIAL SUNSHINE SHOULD DEVELOP FROM
WEST TO EAST LATER IN THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.  HIGH
TEMPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S AS THE CLEANUP BEGINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WILL PUSH SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE USA.
ONE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENTERED THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY
AND WILL REACH NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE FROM CALIFORNIA MAY MERGE WITH IT WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY. ANOTHER PAIR OF SHORTWAVES DIG OVER THE PLAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND AND APPROACH THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.

THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THE BROAD PORTRAIT OF WEATHER
SYSTEMS THESE NEXT SEVEN DAYS BUT DIFFER ON DETAILS SUCH AS
TIMING. WE OPTED FOR A BLEND OF MODEL DATA FOR THIS FORECAST.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND SHOULD PROVIDE A PERIOD
OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE
NUMBERS BELOW ZERO WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE COLDER LOCATIONS TO A
SIMILAR RANGE OVERNIGHT. IF THERE ARE POTENTIAL PROBLEMS IN THE
FORECAST...IT WOULD BE THAT MINS MAY BE 2-4F TOO WARM IN THE
NORMAL COLD SPOTS OF THE EAST IF THEY RADIATE MORE EFFECTIVELY.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THURSDAY BUT STILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF
DRY AIR FOR NEW ENGLAND. AS IT SHIFTS OFFSHORE...A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING IN INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT AND THUS INCREASING
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. ANY PCPN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER DARK.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE
CLIPPER AND SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE RACE EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY AND THEN REDEVELOP ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE GFS
HAS THE REDEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF OF MAINE WHILE THE ECMWF AND
GGEM SHOW THIS CLOSER TO 40N/70W. THE SOUTHERN SOLUTION IS CLOSER
TO THE DYNAMICALLY FAVORED LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET...AND
MAY RESULT IN MORE PCPN IF IT OCCURS. TEMPERATURE PROFILES FAVOR
SNOW ALTHOUGH SOME WARM INTRUSION MAY WARM THE CAPE/ISLANDS INTO
THE UPPER 30S AND PROVIDE A BRIEF CHANGE TO RAIN. THIS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED. THE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE
LOW LEAD TO THE REDUCED CONFIDENCE IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.

SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS AS THE STORM DEEPENS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL
TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BRING INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS
ON THE TRAILING SIDE OF THE STORM. COLD AIR THEN GETS DRAWN IN
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. TEMPS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE 30S DURING THE MORNING-MIDDAY AND 20S BY SUNSET.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
STRONG WINDS TRAILING THE STORM BRING INCOMING COLD AIR WITH
AIRMASS TEMPS REACHING THE SINGLE NUMBERS. THIS WILL BRING WIND
CHILLS BELOW ZERO. NORTHERN AND WESTERN WIND CHILLS SHOULD GO
BELOW 10 BELOW ZERO AND MAY REQUIRE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER
AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. TEMPS AT 925 MB WILL BE -13C TO
-17C...SO MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE CHALLENGED TO REACH THE 20S
MOST PLACES...BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN RI AND SOUTHEAST MASS.

THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY...AGAIN CREATING INCREASING
MOISTURE ALOFT WHILE DRY NEAR THE SURFACE. THIS WILL MEAN
INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPS A LITTLE LESS COLD
THAN ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...
NEXT PAIR OF SHORTWAVES APPROACH. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
GENERATES AN INVERTED TROUGH IN THE WESTERN GULF/MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION. THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE HELPS GENERATE LOW PRESSURE
IN THIS TROUGH AND SWINGS IT NORTHEAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. ALL
MOVE PCPN INTO NEW ENGLAND AND CONSENSUS KEEPS TEMPS COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW. BUT DIFFERENCES IN TRACK RANGING FROM ACROSS THE
BERKSHIRES /ECMWF/ TO ACROSS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK /GGEM/. AND
THIS IS A DAY 5 FORECAST. SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH 925 MB TEMPS AGAIN
FALLING TO AROUND -15 TO -17C. ANOTHER CHILLY DRY WEATHER DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SNOW ACROSS E MA WILL IMPROVE
08-09Z...EXCEPT LINGERING IN OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
CAPE COD. DIMINISHING WIND.

TODAY...VFR CIGS MOST AREAS...BUT MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH SCT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS OUTER CAPE COD AND ACK. NW GUSTS TO 20 KT.

TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...VFR WITH WIND BECOMING LIGHT SOUTH ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...CIGS LOWER TO MVFR WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN
SNOW. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ALSO SHIFT
TO NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF AT LEAST 25 KNOTS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KNOTS
SATURDAY...LIGHTER WINDS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

***GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TONIGHT BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DANGEROUS
  FOR MARINERS UNTIL WEDNESDAY***

POWERFUL STORM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION AND FINALLY LIFTS
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY.  STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS
CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...BUT SHOULD SEE THINGS
LOWER TO GALES NEAR MIDNIGHT.  GALES THEN LOWER TO SCA HEADLINES WED
MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY WEAKENS.  25 TO 30 FOOT SEAS
ACROSS THE THE EASTERN WATERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND
FINALLY DROP BELOW 10 FEET SOMETIME WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...

DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. COULD BE SOME 25
KNOT GUSTS IN THE EVENING BUT OTHERWISE WINDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN
THAT THRESHOLD. LINGERING 5 TO 7 FOOT SEAS ON MASSACHUSETTS BAY
AND THE OUTER WATERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY...
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY IN SNOW.
ONCE THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS...WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST
AND INCREASE TO 30-35 KNOTS. THIS IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE GALE
THRESHOLD SO THAT LOW-END GALES ARE A POSSIBILITY. THIS WILL BE
MONITORED.

SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 5 TO 8 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS. THE
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING IN PLENTY OF COLD AIR. THIS WILL CAUSE
OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF OUTER CAPE COD...AND FREEZING SPRAY
WILL AGAIN DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY...NW GALES EXPECTED WITH POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY. SEAS REMAIN HIGH...POSSIBLY UP TO 7-9 FT ON THE EXPOSED
WATERS.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BUT
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE
CYCLE...GENERALLY BETWEEN 530 AM AND 630 AM...ANTICIPATE POCKETS
OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG NORTH AND NORTHEAST FACING
SHORELINES AS WELL AS SOME ADDITIONAL EROSION. IMPACTS FOR THE
EARLY WEDNESDAY HIGH TIDE WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN WHAT WE HAVE
EXPERIENCED OR WILL HAVE EXPERIENCED DURING THE HIGH TIDES TODAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ019-
     022-024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ231-
     232.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     233>237-255-256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-254.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/FRANK
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...KJC/WTB
MARINE...WTB/FRANK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 280359
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1059 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE BLIZZARD CONTINUING TO WIND DOWN THIS EVENING...BUT IMPROVEMENT
WILL TAKE THE LONGEST ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.
OTHER THAN A FEW OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
CAPE AND NANTUCKET...IT WILL BE DRY AND COLD FOR THE REST OF THE
REGION AS THE CLEANUP BEGINS.  PLAINS LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. DRY BUT VERY COLD
AIR LOOKS TO FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND. A THIRD STORM MAY AFFECT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* STEADY SNOW BANDS WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND BY
  THE EARLY MORNING
* DRY AND COLD WEDNESDAY EXCEPT LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS CAPE/NANTUCKET

1050 PM UPDATE...

VERTICALLY STACKED LOW NE OF CAPE COD WITH COMMA HEAD ACROSS SNE
RESULTING IN MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...STILL
HAVE A FEW HEAVIER SNOW BANDS BACKING IN FROM THE OCEAN ACROSS E
MA AND RI. WE ALLOWED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND MOST OF THE
WINTER STORM WARNINGS TO EXPIRE. WE WILL HAVE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES FOR E COASTAL MA FROM CAPE ANN TO CAPE/ISLANDS WHERE
ANOTHER INCH OR 2 OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH BLOWING SNOW. THE SNOW
WILL GRADUALLY END AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ALL NIGHT ACROSS CAPE
COD.

WINDS ARE STARTING TO DIMINISH AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...

SCATTERED OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
CAPE/NANTUCKET INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH NNW WINDS AND AN 850T/OCEAN
DIFFERENTIAL OF 20C.  ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT IN
THIS REGION.  ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.  PARTIAL SUNSHINE SHOULD DEVELOP FROM
WEST TO EAST LATER IN THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.  HIGH
TEMPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S AS THE CLEANUP BEGINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WILL PUSH SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE USA.
ONE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENTERED THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY
AND WILL REACH NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE FROM CALIFORNIA MAY MERGE WITH IT WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY. ANOTHER PAIR OF SHORTWAVES DIG OVER THE PLAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND AND APPROACH THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.

THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THE BROAD PORTRAIT OF WEATHER
SYSTEMS THESE NEXT SEVEN DAYS BUT DIFFER ON DETAILS SUCH AS
TIMING. WE OPTED FOR A BLEND OF MODEL DATA FOR THIS FORECAST.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND SHOULD PROVIDE A PERIOD
OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE
NUMBERS BELOW ZERO WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE COLDER LOCATIONS TO A
SIMILAR RANGE OVERNIGHT. IF THERE ARE POTENTIAL PROBLEMS IN THE
FORECAST...IT WOULD BE THAT MINS MAY BE 2-4F TOO WARM IN THE
NORMAL COLD SPOTS OF THE EAST IF THEY RADIATE MORE EFFECTIVELY.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THURSDAY BUT STILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF
DRY AIR FOR NEW ENGLAND. AS IT SHIFTS OFFSHORE...A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING IN INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT AND THUS INCREASING
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. ANY PCPN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER DARK.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE
CLIPPER AND SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE RACE EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY AND THEN REDEVELOP ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE GFS
HAS THE REDEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF OF MAINE WHILE THE ECMWF AND
GGEM SHOW THIS CLOSER TO 40N/70W. THE SOUTHERN SOLUTION IS CLOSER
TO THE DYNAMICALLY FAVORED LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET...AND
MAY RESULT IN MORE PCPN IF IT OCCURS. TEMPERATURE PROFILES FAVOR
SNOW ALTHOUGH SOME WARM INTRUSION MAY WARM THE CAPE/ISLANDS INTO
THE UPPER 30S AND PROVIDE A BRIEF CHANGE TO RAIN. THIS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED. THE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE
LOW LEAD TO THE REDUCED CONFIDENCE IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.

SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS AS THE STORM DEEPENS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL
TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BRING INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS
ON THE TRAILING SIDE OF THE STORM. COLD AIR THEN GETS DRAWN IN
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. TEMPS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE 30S DURING THE MORNING-MIDDAY AND 20S BY SUNSET.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
STRONG WINDS TRAILING THE STORM BRING INCOMING COLD AIR WITH
AIRMASS TEMPS REACHING THE SINGLE NUMBERS. THIS WILL BRING WIND
CHILLS BELOW ZERO. NORTHERN AND WESTERN WIND CHILLS SHOULD GO
BELOW 10 BELOW ZERO AND MAY REQUIRE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER
AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. TEMPS AT 925 MB WILL BE -13C TO
-17C...SO MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE CHALLENGED TO REACH THE 20S
MOST PLACES...BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN RI AND SOUTHEAST MASS.

THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY...AGAIN CREATING INCREASING
MOISTURE ALOFT WHILE DRY NEAR THE SURFACE. THIS WILL MEAN
INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPS A LITTLE LESS COLD
THAN ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...
NEXT PAIR OF SHORTWAVES APPROACH. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
GENERATES AN INVERTED TROUGH IN THE WESTERN GULF/MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION. THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE HELPS GENERATE LOW PRESSURE
IN THIS TROUGH AND SWINGS IT NORTHEAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. ALL
MOVE PCPN INTO NEW ENGLAND AND CONSENSUS KEEPS TEMPS COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW. BUT DIFFERENCES IN TRACK RANGING FROM ACROSS THE
BERKSHIRES /ECMWF/ TO ACROSS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK /GGEM/. AND
THIS IS A DAY 5 FORECAST. SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH 925 MB TEMPS AGAIN
FALLING TO AROUND -15 TO -17C. ANOTHER CHILLY DRY WEATHER DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

TONIGHT...

CIGS HAVE IMPROVED IN THE INTERIOR BUT STILL SOME LOWER VSBYS IN
SNOW. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR ACROSS E NEW ENG WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT LINGERING IN OCEAN EFFECT SNOW ACROSS CAPE COD
MOST OF THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH.

WEDNESDAY...VFR MOST AREAS. SOME LINGERING MVFR CIGS OUTER CAPE
COD AND NANTUCKET. NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH UNDER 20
KNOTS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING TO LIGHT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...VFR WITH WIND BECOMING LIGHT SOUTH ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...CIGS LOWER TO MVFR WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN
SNOW. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ALSO SHIFT
TO NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF AT LEAST 25 KNOTS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KNOTS
SATURDAY...LIGHTER WINDS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

***GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TONIGHT BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DANGEROUS
  FOR MARINERS UNTIL WEDNESDAY***

POWERFUL STORM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION AND FINALLY LIFTS
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY.  STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS
CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...BUT SHOULD SEE THINGS
LOWER TO GALES NEAR MIDNIGHT.  GALES THEN LOWER TO SCA HEADLINES WED
MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY WEAKENS.  25 TO 30 FOOT SEAS
ACROSS THE THE EASTERN WATERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND
FINALLY DROP BELOW 10 FEET SOMETIME WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...

DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. COULD BE SOME 25
KNOT GUSTS IN THE EVENING BUT OTHERWISE WINDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN
THAT THRESHOLD. LINGERING 5 TO 7 FOOT SEAS ON MASSACHUSETTS BAY
AND THE OUTER WATERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY...
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY IN SNOW.
ONCE THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS...WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST
AND INCREASE TO 30-35 KNOTS. THIS IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE GALE
THRESHOLD SO THAT LOW-END GALES ARE A POSSIBILITY. THIS WILL BE
MONITORED.

SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 5 TO 8 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS. THE
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING IN PLENTY OF COLD AIR. THIS WILL CAUSE
OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF OUTER CAPE COD...AND FREEZING SPRAY
WILL AGAIN DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY...NW GALES EXPECTED WITH POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY. SEAS REMAIN HIGH...POSSIBLY UP TO 7-9 FT ON THE EXPOSED
WATERS.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BUT
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE COMPARABLE
 IMPACTS TO EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE IN MANY AREAS EXCEPT PROBABLY
 HIGHER IMPACTS NORTH SIDE OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET ***

FORECAST FOR LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IS TRICKY WHEN IT COMES TO
THE  DETAILS. THE SURGE SHOULD BE SUBSIDING BUT NOT FAST ENOUGH
TO PRECLUDE PROBLEMS. THE ISSUE IS HOW FAST THE SURGE SUBSIDES.
BELIEVE WAVES WILL BE HIGHER THAN AT THE TIME OF THE EARLY MORNING
HIGH TIDE BUT ALSO STARTING TO SUBSIDE. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF
OTHER FACTORS TO CONSIDER. SOME SHORELINE DEFENSES MAY HAVE BEEN
COMPROMISED WITH THE EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE AND THUS INCREASING
VULNERABILITY FOR AT LEAST A FEW SPOTS. ALSO...WAVE PERIODS HAVE
INCREASED TO THE 13 TO 15 SECOND RANGE AND SUGGEST GREATER ENERGY
IN THE BREAKING SURF THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED WITH EARLY THIS
MORNING. AND THERE ARE SOME AREAS WHICH REMAIN INUNDATED FROM THE
EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE WITH THE WATER UNABLE TO DRAIN...AN
UNSETTLING SITUATION FOR SURE.

GREATEST CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL IMPACT FOR CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET. VERY STRONG ONSHORE WINDS WILL JUST BE STARTING TO
DIMINISH AS WE APPROACH THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE AND SO THINK THE
SURGE WILL REMAIN NEAR 4.5 FEET ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF CAPE COD
AND NEAR 4 FEET IN NANTUCKET HARBOR. THESE VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE
THOSE FROM BOTH THE ETSS AND ESTOFS GUIDANCE. EXPECT A WORSE
IMPACT FOR THE NORTH SIDE OF CAPE COD AND PROBABLY AT LEAST A
LITTLE WORSE FOR NANTUCKET. BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE
IN THESE SAME AREAS AS WELL AS THE OCEAN SIDE OF CAPE COD FROM
TRURO TO CHATHAM.

ELSEWHERE ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST...ANTICIPATE
COMPARABLE COASTAL FLOOD IMPACT FOR THE SHORELINE FROM HULL TO
PLYMOUTH WITH RUNUP AND OVERWASH AS BIG OR PERHAPS EVEN BIGGER
FACTOR DUE TO THE LARGE WAVES. WE ARE ALSO THINKING A COMPARABLE
IMPACT FOR THE SHORELINE FROM SALISBURY TO ROCKPORT WITH LARGE
WAVES AND EROSION PLAYING A ROLE THERE AS WELL. IN CONTRAST...THE
SHIFT IN THE WIND TO BE FROM THE N OR NNW IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
LESS IMPACT ALONG THE NORTH SHORE FROM BOSTON TO GLOUCESTER.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE
CYCLE...GENERALLY BETWEEN 530 AM AND 630 AM...ANTICIPATE POCKETS
OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG NORTH AND NORTHEAST FACING
SHORELINES AS WELL AS SOME ADDITIONAL EROSION. IMPACTS FOR THE
EARLY WEDNESDAY HIGH TIDE WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN WHAT WE HAVE
EXPERIENCED OR WILL HAVE EXPERIENCED DURING THE HIGH TIDES TODAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ019-022-
     024.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-251.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ231-232-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ230-
     233>237-256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/FRANK
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB
MARINE...WTB/FRANK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 280359
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1059 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE BLIZZARD CONTINUING TO WIND DOWN THIS EVENING...BUT IMPROVEMENT
WILL TAKE THE LONGEST ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.
OTHER THAN A FEW OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
CAPE AND NANTUCKET...IT WILL BE DRY AND COLD FOR THE REST OF THE
REGION AS THE CLEANUP BEGINS.  PLAINS LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. DRY BUT VERY COLD
AIR LOOKS TO FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND. A THIRD STORM MAY AFFECT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* STEADY SNOW BANDS WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND BY
  THE EARLY MORNING
* DRY AND COLD WEDNESDAY EXCEPT LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS CAPE/NANTUCKET

1050 PM UPDATE...

VERTICALLY STACKED LOW NE OF CAPE COD WITH COMMA HEAD ACROSS SNE
RESULTING IN MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...STILL
HAVE A FEW HEAVIER SNOW BANDS BACKING IN FROM THE OCEAN ACROSS E
MA AND RI. WE ALLOWED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND MOST OF THE
WINTER STORM WARNINGS TO EXPIRE. WE WILL HAVE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES FOR E COASTAL MA FROM CAPE ANN TO CAPE/ISLANDS WHERE
ANOTHER INCH OR 2 OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH BLOWING SNOW. THE SNOW
WILL GRADUALLY END AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ALL NIGHT ACROSS CAPE
COD.

WINDS ARE STARTING TO DIMINISH AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...

SCATTERED OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
CAPE/NANTUCKET INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH NNW WINDS AND AN 850T/OCEAN
DIFFERENTIAL OF 20C.  ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT IN
THIS REGION.  ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.  PARTIAL SUNSHINE SHOULD DEVELOP FROM
WEST TO EAST LATER IN THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.  HIGH
TEMPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S AS THE CLEANUP BEGINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WILL PUSH SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE USA.
ONE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENTERED THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY
AND WILL REACH NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE FROM CALIFORNIA MAY MERGE WITH IT WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY. ANOTHER PAIR OF SHORTWAVES DIG OVER THE PLAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND AND APPROACH THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.

THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THE BROAD PORTRAIT OF WEATHER
SYSTEMS THESE NEXT SEVEN DAYS BUT DIFFER ON DETAILS SUCH AS
TIMING. WE OPTED FOR A BLEND OF MODEL DATA FOR THIS FORECAST.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND SHOULD PROVIDE A PERIOD
OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE
NUMBERS BELOW ZERO WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE COLDER LOCATIONS TO A
SIMILAR RANGE OVERNIGHT. IF THERE ARE POTENTIAL PROBLEMS IN THE
FORECAST...IT WOULD BE THAT MINS MAY BE 2-4F TOO WARM IN THE
NORMAL COLD SPOTS OF THE EAST IF THEY RADIATE MORE EFFECTIVELY.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THURSDAY BUT STILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF
DRY AIR FOR NEW ENGLAND. AS IT SHIFTS OFFSHORE...A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING IN INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT AND THUS INCREASING
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. ANY PCPN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER DARK.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE
CLIPPER AND SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE RACE EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY AND THEN REDEVELOP ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE GFS
HAS THE REDEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF OF MAINE WHILE THE ECMWF AND
GGEM SHOW THIS CLOSER TO 40N/70W. THE SOUTHERN SOLUTION IS CLOSER
TO THE DYNAMICALLY FAVORED LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET...AND
MAY RESULT IN MORE PCPN IF IT OCCURS. TEMPERATURE PROFILES FAVOR
SNOW ALTHOUGH SOME WARM INTRUSION MAY WARM THE CAPE/ISLANDS INTO
THE UPPER 30S AND PROVIDE A BRIEF CHANGE TO RAIN. THIS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED. THE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE
LOW LEAD TO THE REDUCED CONFIDENCE IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.

SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS AS THE STORM DEEPENS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL
TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BRING INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS
ON THE TRAILING SIDE OF THE STORM. COLD AIR THEN GETS DRAWN IN
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. TEMPS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE 30S DURING THE MORNING-MIDDAY AND 20S BY SUNSET.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
STRONG WINDS TRAILING THE STORM BRING INCOMING COLD AIR WITH
AIRMASS TEMPS REACHING THE SINGLE NUMBERS. THIS WILL BRING WIND
CHILLS BELOW ZERO. NORTHERN AND WESTERN WIND CHILLS SHOULD GO
BELOW 10 BELOW ZERO AND MAY REQUIRE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER
AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. TEMPS AT 925 MB WILL BE -13C TO
-17C...SO MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE CHALLENGED TO REACH THE 20S
MOST PLACES...BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN RI AND SOUTHEAST MASS.

THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY...AGAIN CREATING INCREASING
MOISTURE ALOFT WHILE DRY NEAR THE SURFACE. THIS WILL MEAN
INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPS A LITTLE LESS COLD
THAN ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...
NEXT PAIR OF SHORTWAVES APPROACH. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
GENERATES AN INVERTED TROUGH IN THE WESTERN GULF/MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION. THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE HELPS GENERATE LOW PRESSURE
IN THIS TROUGH AND SWINGS IT NORTHEAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. ALL
MOVE PCPN INTO NEW ENGLAND AND CONSENSUS KEEPS TEMPS COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW. BUT DIFFERENCES IN TRACK RANGING FROM ACROSS THE
BERKSHIRES /ECMWF/ TO ACROSS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK /GGEM/. AND
THIS IS A DAY 5 FORECAST. SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH 925 MB TEMPS AGAIN
FALLING TO AROUND -15 TO -17C. ANOTHER CHILLY DRY WEATHER DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

TONIGHT...

CIGS HAVE IMPROVED IN THE INTERIOR BUT STILL SOME LOWER VSBYS IN
SNOW. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR ACROSS E NEW ENG WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT LINGERING IN OCEAN EFFECT SNOW ACROSS CAPE COD
MOST OF THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH.

WEDNESDAY...VFR MOST AREAS. SOME LINGERING MVFR CIGS OUTER CAPE
COD AND NANTUCKET. NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH UNDER 20
KNOTS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING TO LIGHT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...VFR WITH WIND BECOMING LIGHT SOUTH ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...CIGS LOWER TO MVFR WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN
SNOW. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ALSO SHIFT
TO NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF AT LEAST 25 KNOTS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KNOTS
SATURDAY...LIGHTER WINDS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

***GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TONIGHT BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DANGEROUS
  FOR MARINERS UNTIL WEDNESDAY***

POWERFUL STORM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION AND FINALLY LIFTS
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY.  STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS
CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...BUT SHOULD SEE THINGS
LOWER TO GALES NEAR MIDNIGHT.  GALES THEN LOWER TO SCA HEADLINES WED
MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY WEAKENS.  25 TO 30 FOOT SEAS
ACROSS THE THE EASTERN WATERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND
FINALLY DROP BELOW 10 FEET SOMETIME WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...

DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. COULD BE SOME 25
KNOT GUSTS IN THE EVENING BUT OTHERWISE WINDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN
THAT THRESHOLD. LINGERING 5 TO 7 FOOT SEAS ON MASSACHUSETTS BAY
AND THE OUTER WATERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY...
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY IN SNOW.
ONCE THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS...WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST
AND INCREASE TO 30-35 KNOTS. THIS IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE GALE
THRESHOLD SO THAT LOW-END GALES ARE A POSSIBILITY. THIS WILL BE
MONITORED.

SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 5 TO 8 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS. THE
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING IN PLENTY OF COLD AIR. THIS WILL CAUSE
OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF OUTER CAPE COD...AND FREEZING SPRAY
WILL AGAIN DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY...NW GALES EXPECTED WITH POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY. SEAS REMAIN HIGH...POSSIBLY UP TO 7-9 FT ON THE EXPOSED
WATERS.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BUT
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE COMPARABLE
 IMPACTS TO EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE IN MANY AREAS EXCEPT PROBABLY
 HIGHER IMPACTS NORTH SIDE OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET ***

FORECAST FOR LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IS TRICKY WHEN IT COMES TO
THE  DETAILS. THE SURGE SHOULD BE SUBSIDING BUT NOT FAST ENOUGH
TO PRECLUDE PROBLEMS. THE ISSUE IS HOW FAST THE SURGE SUBSIDES.
BELIEVE WAVES WILL BE HIGHER THAN AT THE TIME OF THE EARLY MORNING
HIGH TIDE BUT ALSO STARTING TO SUBSIDE. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF
OTHER FACTORS TO CONSIDER. SOME SHORELINE DEFENSES MAY HAVE BEEN
COMPROMISED WITH THE EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE AND THUS INCREASING
VULNERABILITY FOR AT LEAST A FEW SPOTS. ALSO...WAVE PERIODS HAVE
INCREASED TO THE 13 TO 15 SECOND RANGE AND SUGGEST GREATER ENERGY
IN THE BREAKING SURF THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED WITH EARLY THIS
MORNING. AND THERE ARE SOME AREAS WHICH REMAIN INUNDATED FROM THE
EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE WITH THE WATER UNABLE TO DRAIN...AN
UNSETTLING SITUATION FOR SURE.

GREATEST CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL IMPACT FOR CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET. VERY STRONG ONSHORE WINDS WILL JUST BE STARTING TO
DIMINISH AS WE APPROACH THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE AND SO THINK THE
SURGE WILL REMAIN NEAR 4.5 FEET ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF CAPE COD
AND NEAR 4 FEET IN NANTUCKET HARBOR. THESE VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE
THOSE FROM BOTH THE ETSS AND ESTOFS GUIDANCE. EXPECT A WORSE
IMPACT FOR THE NORTH SIDE OF CAPE COD AND PROBABLY AT LEAST A
LITTLE WORSE FOR NANTUCKET. BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE
IN THESE SAME AREAS AS WELL AS THE OCEAN SIDE OF CAPE COD FROM
TRURO TO CHATHAM.

ELSEWHERE ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST...ANTICIPATE
COMPARABLE COASTAL FLOOD IMPACT FOR THE SHORELINE FROM HULL TO
PLYMOUTH WITH RUNUP AND OVERWASH AS BIG OR PERHAPS EVEN BIGGER
FACTOR DUE TO THE LARGE WAVES. WE ARE ALSO THINKING A COMPARABLE
IMPACT FOR THE SHORELINE FROM SALISBURY TO ROCKPORT WITH LARGE
WAVES AND EROSION PLAYING A ROLE THERE AS WELL. IN CONTRAST...THE
SHIFT IN THE WIND TO BE FROM THE N OR NNW IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
LESS IMPACT ALONG THE NORTH SHORE FROM BOSTON TO GLOUCESTER.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE
CYCLE...GENERALLY BETWEEN 530 AM AND 630 AM...ANTICIPATE POCKETS
OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG NORTH AND NORTHEAST FACING
SHORELINES AS WELL AS SOME ADDITIONAL EROSION. IMPACTS FOR THE
EARLY WEDNESDAY HIGH TIDE WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN WHAT WE HAVE
EXPERIENCED OR WILL HAVE EXPERIENCED DURING THE HIGH TIDES TODAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ019-022-
     024.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-251.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ231-232-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ230-
     233>237-256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/FRANK
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB
MARINE...WTB/FRANK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 280359
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1059 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE BLIZZARD CONTINUING TO WIND DOWN THIS EVENING...BUT IMPROVEMENT
WILL TAKE THE LONGEST ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.
OTHER THAN A FEW OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
CAPE AND NANTUCKET...IT WILL BE DRY AND COLD FOR THE REST OF THE
REGION AS THE CLEANUP BEGINS.  PLAINS LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. DRY BUT VERY COLD
AIR LOOKS TO FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND. A THIRD STORM MAY AFFECT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* STEADY SNOW BANDS WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND BY
  THE EARLY MORNING
* DRY AND COLD WEDNESDAY EXCEPT LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS CAPE/NANTUCKET

1050 PM UPDATE...

VERTICALLY STACKED LOW NE OF CAPE COD WITH COMMA HEAD ACROSS SNE
RESULTING IN MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...STILL
HAVE A FEW HEAVIER SNOW BANDS BACKING IN FROM THE OCEAN ACROSS E
MA AND RI. WE ALLOWED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND MOST OF THE
WINTER STORM WARNINGS TO EXPIRE. WE WILL HAVE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES FOR E COASTAL MA FROM CAPE ANN TO CAPE/ISLANDS WHERE
ANOTHER INCH OR 2 OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH BLOWING SNOW. THE SNOW
WILL GRADUALLY END AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ALL NIGHT ACROSS CAPE
COD.

WINDS ARE STARTING TO DIMINISH AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...

SCATTERED OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
CAPE/NANTUCKET INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH NNW WINDS AND AN 850T/OCEAN
DIFFERENTIAL OF 20C.  ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT IN
THIS REGION.  ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.  PARTIAL SUNSHINE SHOULD DEVELOP FROM
WEST TO EAST LATER IN THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.  HIGH
TEMPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S AS THE CLEANUP BEGINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WILL PUSH SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE USA.
ONE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENTERED THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY
AND WILL REACH NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE FROM CALIFORNIA MAY MERGE WITH IT WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY. ANOTHER PAIR OF SHORTWAVES DIG OVER THE PLAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND AND APPROACH THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.

THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THE BROAD PORTRAIT OF WEATHER
SYSTEMS THESE NEXT SEVEN DAYS BUT DIFFER ON DETAILS SUCH AS
TIMING. WE OPTED FOR A BLEND OF MODEL DATA FOR THIS FORECAST.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND SHOULD PROVIDE A PERIOD
OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE
NUMBERS BELOW ZERO WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE COLDER LOCATIONS TO A
SIMILAR RANGE OVERNIGHT. IF THERE ARE POTENTIAL PROBLEMS IN THE
FORECAST...IT WOULD BE THAT MINS MAY BE 2-4F TOO WARM IN THE
NORMAL COLD SPOTS OF THE EAST IF THEY RADIATE MORE EFFECTIVELY.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THURSDAY BUT STILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF
DRY AIR FOR NEW ENGLAND. AS IT SHIFTS OFFSHORE...A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING IN INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT AND THUS INCREASING
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. ANY PCPN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER DARK.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE
CLIPPER AND SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE RACE EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY AND THEN REDEVELOP ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE GFS
HAS THE REDEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF OF MAINE WHILE THE ECMWF AND
GGEM SHOW THIS CLOSER TO 40N/70W. THE SOUTHERN SOLUTION IS CLOSER
TO THE DYNAMICALLY FAVORED LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET...AND
MAY RESULT IN MORE PCPN IF IT OCCURS. TEMPERATURE PROFILES FAVOR
SNOW ALTHOUGH SOME WARM INTRUSION MAY WARM THE CAPE/ISLANDS INTO
THE UPPER 30S AND PROVIDE A BRIEF CHANGE TO RAIN. THIS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED. THE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE
LOW LEAD TO THE REDUCED CONFIDENCE IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.

SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS AS THE STORM DEEPENS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL
TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BRING INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS
ON THE TRAILING SIDE OF THE STORM. COLD AIR THEN GETS DRAWN IN
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. TEMPS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE 30S DURING THE MORNING-MIDDAY AND 20S BY SUNSET.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
STRONG WINDS TRAILING THE STORM BRING INCOMING COLD AIR WITH
AIRMASS TEMPS REACHING THE SINGLE NUMBERS. THIS WILL BRING WIND
CHILLS BELOW ZERO. NORTHERN AND WESTERN WIND CHILLS SHOULD GO
BELOW 10 BELOW ZERO AND MAY REQUIRE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER
AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. TEMPS AT 925 MB WILL BE -13C TO
-17C...SO MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE CHALLENGED TO REACH THE 20S
MOST PLACES...BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN RI AND SOUTHEAST MASS.

THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY...AGAIN CREATING INCREASING
MOISTURE ALOFT WHILE DRY NEAR THE SURFACE. THIS WILL MEAN
INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPS A LITTLE LESS COLD
THAN ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...
NEXT PAIR OF SHORTWAVES APPROACH. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
GENERATES AN INVERTED TROUGH IN THE WESTERN GULF/MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION. THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE HELPS GENERATE LOW PRESSURE
IN THIS TROUGH AND SWINGS IT NORTHEAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. ALL
MOVE PCPN INTO NEW ENGLAND AND CONSENSUS KEEPS TEMPS COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW. BUT DIFFERENCES IN TRACK RANGING FROM ACROSS THE
BERKSHIRES /ECMWF/ TO ACROSS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK /GGEM/. AND
THIS IS A DAY 5 FORECAST. SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH 925 MB TEMPS AGAIN
FALLING TO AROUND -15 TO -17C. ANOTHER CHILLY DRY WEATHER DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

TONIGHT...

CIGS HAVE IMPROVED IN THE INTERIOR BUT STILL SOME LOWER VSBYS IN
SNOW. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR ACROSS E NEW ENG WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT LINGERING IN OCEAN EFFECT SNOW ACROSS CAPE COD
MOST OF THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH.

WEDNESDAY...VFR MOST AREAS. SOME LINGERING MVFR CIGS OUTER CAPE
COD AND NANTUCKET. NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH UNDER 20
KNOTS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING TO LIGHT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...VFR WITH WIND BECOMING LIGHT SOUTH ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...CIGS LOWER TO MVFR WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN
SNOW. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ALSO SHIFT
TO NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF AT LEAST 25 KNOTS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KNOTS
SATURDAY...LIGHTER WINDS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

***GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TONIGHT BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DANGEROUS
  FOR MARINERS UNTIL WEDNESDAY***

POWERFUL STORM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION AND FINALLY LIFTS
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY.  STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS
CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...BUT SHOULD SEE THINGS
LOWER TO GALES NEAR MIDNIGHT.  GALES THEN LOWER TO SCA HEADLINES WED
MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY WEAKENS.  25 TO 30 FOOT SEAS
ACROSS THE THE EASTERN WATERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND
FINALLY DROP BELOW 10 FEET SOMETIME WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...

DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. COULD BE SOME 25
KNOT GUSTS IN THE EVENING BUT OTHERWISE WINDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN
THAT THRESHOLD. LINGERING 5 TO 7 FOOT SEAS ON MASSACHUSETTS BAY
AND THE OUTER WATERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY...
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY IN SNOW.
ONCE THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS...WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST
AND INCREASE TO 30-35 KNOTS. THIS IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE GALE
THRESHOLD SO THAT LOW-END GALES ARE A POSSIBILITY. THIS WILL BE
MONITORED.

SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 5 TO 8 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS. THE
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING IN PLENTY OF COLD AIR. THIS WILL CAUSE
OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF OUTER CAPE COD...AND FREEZING SPRAY
WILL AGAIN DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY...NW GALES EXPECTED WITH POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY. SEAS REMAIN HIGH...POSSIBLY UP TO 7-9 FT ON THE EXPOSED
WATERS.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BUT
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE COMPARABLE
 IMPACTS TO EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE IN MANY AREAS EXCEPT PROBABLY
 HIGHER IMPACTS NORTH SIDE OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET ***

FORECAST FOR LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IS TRICKY WHEN IT COMES TO
THE  DETAILS. THE SURGE SHOULD BE SUBSIDING BUT NOT FAST ENOUGH
TO PRECLUDE PROBLEMS. THE ISSUE IS HOW FAST THE SURGE SUBSIDES.
BELIEVE WAVES WILL BE HIGHER THAN AT THE TIME OF THE EARLY MORNING
HIGH TIDE BUT ALSO STARTING TO SUBSIDE. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF
OTHER FACTORS TO CONSIDER. SOME SHORELINE DEFENSES MAY HAVE BEEN
COMPROMISED WITH THE EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE AND THUS INCREASING
VULNERABILITY FOR AT LEAST A FEW SPOTS. ALSO...WAVE PERIODS HAVE
INCREASED TO THE 13 TO 15 SECOND RANGE AND SUGGEST GREATER ENERGY
IN THE BREAKING SURF THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED WITH EARLY THIS
MORNING. AND THERE ARE SOME AREAS WHICH REMAIN INUNDATED FROM THE
EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE WITH THE WATER UNABLE TO DRAIN...AN
UNSETTLING SITUATION FOR SURE.

GREATEST CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL IMPACT FOR CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET. VERY STRONG ONSHORE WINDS WILL JUST BE STARTING TO
DIMINISH AS WE APPROACH THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE AND SO THINK THE
SURGE WILL REMAIN NEAR 4.5 FEET ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF CAPE COD
AND NEAR 4 FEET IN NANTUCKET HARBOR. THESE VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE
THOSE FROM BOTH THE ETSS AND ESTOFS GUIDANCE. EXPECT A WORSE
IMPACT FOR THE NORTH SIDE OF CAPE COD AND PROBABLY AT LEAST A
LITTLE WORSE FOR NANTUCKET. BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE
IN THESE SAME AREAS AS WELL AS THE OCEAN SIDE OF CAPE COD FROM
TRURO TO CHATHAM.

ELSEWHERE ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST...ANTICIPATE
COMPARABLE COASTAL FLOOD IMPACT FOR THE SHORELINE FROM HULL TO
PLYMOUTH WITH RUNUP AND OVERWASH AS BIG OR PERHAPS EVEN BIGGER
FACTOR DUE TO THE LARGE WAVES. WE ARE ALSO THINKING A COMPARABLE
IMPACT FOR THE SHORELINE FROM SALISBURY TO ROCKPORT WITH LARGE
WAVES AND EROSION PLAYING A ROLE THERE AS WELL. IN CONTRAST...THE
SHIFT IN THE WIND TO BE FROM THE N OR NNW IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
LESS IMPACT ALONG THE NORTH SHORE FROM BOSTON TO GLOUCESTER.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE
CYCLE...GENERALLY BETWEEN 530 AM AND 630 AM...ANTICIPATE POCKETS
OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG NORTH AND NORTHEAST FACING
SHORELINES AS WELL AS SOME ADDITIONAL EROSION. IMPACTS FOR THE
EARLY WEDNESDAY HIGH TIDE WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN WHAT WE HAVE
EXPERIENCED OR WILL HAVE EXPERIENCED DURING THE HIGH TIDES TODAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ019-022-
     024.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-251.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ231-232-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ230-
     233>237-256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/FRANK
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB
MARINE...WTB/FRANK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 280359
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1059 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE BLIZZARD CONTINUING TO WIND DOWN THIS EVENING...BUT IMPROVEMENT
WILL TAKE THE LONGEST ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.
OTHER THAN A FEW OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
CAPE AND NANTUCKET...IT WILL BE DRY AND COLD FOR THE REST OF THE
REGION AS THE CLEANUP BEGINS.  PLAINS LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. DRY BUT VERY COLD
AIR LOOKS TO FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND. A THIRD STORM MAY AFFECT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* STEADY SNOW BANDS WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND BY
  THE EARLY MORNING
* DRY AND COLD WEDNESDAY EXCEPT LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS CAPE/NANTUCKET

1050 PM UPDATE...

VERTICALLY STACKED LOW NE OF CAPE COD WITH COMMA HEAD ACROSS SNE
RESULTING IN MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...STILL
HAVE A FEW HEAVIER SNOW BANDS BACKING IN FROM THE OCEAN ACROSS E
MA AND RI. WE ALLOWED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND MOST OF THE
WINTER STORM WARNINGS TO EXPIRE. WE WILL HAVE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES FOR E COASTAL MA FROM CAPE ANN TO CAPE/ISLANDS WHERE
ANOTHER INCH OR 2 OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH BLOWING SNOW. THE SNOW
WILL GRADUALLY END AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ALL NIGHT ACROSS CAPE
COD.

WINDS ARE STARTING TO DIMINISH AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...

SCATTERED OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
CAPE/NANTUCKET INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH NNW WINDS AND AN 850T/OCEAN
DIFFERENTIAL OF 20C.  ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT IN
THIS REGION.  ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.  PARTIAL SUNSHINE SHOULD DEVELOP FROM
WEST TO EAST LATER IN THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.  HIGH
TEMPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S AS THE CLEANUP BEGINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WILL PUSH SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE USA.
ONE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENTERED THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY
AND WILL REACH NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE FROM CALIFORNIA MAY MERGE WITH IT WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY. ANOTHER PAIR OF SHORTWAVES DIG OVER THE PLAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND AND APPROACH THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.

THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THE BROAD PORTRAIT OF WEATHER
SYSTEMS THESE NEXT SEVEN DAYS BUT DIFFER ON DETAILS SUCH AS
TIMING. WE OPTED FOR A BLEND OF MODEL DATA FOR THIS FORECAST.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND SHOULD PROVIDE A PERIOD
OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE
NUMBERS BELOW ZERO WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE COLDER LOCATIONS TO A
SIMILAR RANGE OVERNIGHT. IF THERE ARE POTENTIAL PROBLEMS IN THE
FORECAST...IT WOULD BE THAT MINS MAY BE 2-4F TOO WARM IN THE
NORMAL COLD SPOTS OF THE EAST IF THEY RADIATE MORE EFFECTIVELY.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THURSDAY BUT STILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF
DRY AIR FOR NEW ENGLAND. AS IT SHIFTS OFFSHORE...A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING IN INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT AND THUS INCREASING
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. ANY PCPN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER DARK.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE
CLIPPER AND SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE RACE EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY AND THEN REDEVELOP ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE GFS
HAS THE REDEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF OF MAINE WHILE THE ECMWF AND
GGEM SHOW THIS CLOSER TO 40N/70W. THE SOUTHERN SOLUTION IS CLOSER
TO THE DYNAMICALLY FAVORED LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET...AND
MAY RESULT IN MORE PCPN IF IT OCCURS. TEMPERATURE PROFILES FAVOR
SNOW ALTHOUGH SOME WARM INTRUSION MAY WARM THE CAPE/ISLANDS INTO
THE UPPER 30S AND PROVIDE A BRIEF CHANGE TO RAIN. THIS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED. THE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE
LOW LEAD TO THE REDUCED CONFIDENCE IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.

SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS AS THE STORM DEEPENS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL
TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BRING INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS
ON THE TRAILING SIDE OF THE STORM. COLD AIR THEN GETS DRAWN IN
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. TEMPS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN
THE 30S DURING THE MORNING-MIDDAY AND 20S BY SUNSET.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
STRONG WINDS TRAILING THE STORM BRING INCOMING COLD AIR WITH
AIRMASS TEMPS REACHING THE SINGLE NUMBERS. THIS WILL BRING WIND
CHILLS BELOW ZERO. NORTHERN AND WESTERN WIND CHILLS SHOULD GO
BELOW 10 BELOW ZERO AND MAY REQUIRE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER
AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. TEMPS AT 925 MB WILL BE -13C TO
-17C...SO MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE CHALLENGED TO REACH THE 20S
MOST PLACES...BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN RI AND SOUTHEAST MASS.

THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY...AGAIN CREATING INCREASING
MOISTURE ALOFT WHILE DRY NEAR THE SURFACE. THIS WILL MEAN
INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPS A LITTLE LESS COLD
THAN ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...
NEXT PAIR OF SHORTWAVES APPROACH. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
GENERATES AN INVERTED TROUGH IN THE WESTERN GULF/MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION. THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE HELPS GENERATE LOW PRESSURE
IN THIS TROUGH AND SWINGS IT NORTHEAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. ALL
MOVE PCPN INTO NEW ENGLAND AND CONSENSUS KEEPS TEMPS COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW. BUT DIFFERENCES IN TRACK RANGING FROM ACROSS THE
BERKSHIRES /ECMWF/ TO ACROSS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK /GGEM/. AND
THIS IS A DAY 5 FORECAST. SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH 925 MB TEMPS AGAIN
FALLING TO AROUND -15 TO -17C. ANOTHER CHILLY DRY WEATHER DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

TONIGHT...

CIGS HAVE IMPROVED IN THE INTERIOR BUT STILL SOME LOWER VSBYS IN
SNOW. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR ACROSS E NEW ENG WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT LINGERING IN OCEAN EFFECT SNOW ACROSS CAPE COD
MOST OF THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH.

WEDNESDAY...VFR MOST AREAS. SOME LINGERING MVFR CIGS OUTER CAPE
COD AND NANTUCKET. NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH UNDER 20
KNOTS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING TO LIGHT.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...VFR WITH WIND BECOMING LIGHT SOUTH ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...CIGS LOWER TO MVFR WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN
SNOW. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ALSO SHIFT
TO NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF AT LEAST 25 KNOTS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KNOTS
SATURDAY...LIGHTER WINDS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

***GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TONIGHT BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DANGEROUS
  FOR MARINERS UNTIL WEDNESDAY***

POWERFUL STORM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION AND FINALLY LIFTS
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY.  STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS
CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...BUT SHOULD SEE THINGS
LOWER TO GALES NEAR MIDNIGHT.  GALES THEN LOWER TO SCA HEADLINES WED
MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY WEAKENS.  25 TO 30 FOOT SEAS
ACROSS THE THE EASTERN WATERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND
FINALLY DROP BELOW 10 FEET SOMETIME WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...

DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. COULD BE SOME 25
KNOT GUSTS IN THE EVENING BUT OTHERWISE WINDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN
THAT THRESHOLD. LINGERING 5 TO 7 FOOT SEAS ON MASSACHUSETTS BAY
AND THE OUTER WATERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY...
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY IN SNOW.
ONCE THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS...WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST
AND INCREASE TO 30-35 KNOTS. THIS IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE GALE
THRESHOLD SO THAT LOW-END GALES ARE A POSSIBILITY. THIS WILL BE
MONITORED.

SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 5 TO 8 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS. THE
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING IN PLENTY OF COLD AIR. THIS WILL CAUSE
OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF OUTER CAPE COD...AND FREEZING SPRAY
WILL AGAIN DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY...NW GALES EXPECTED WITH POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY. SEAS REMAIN HIGH...POSSIBLY UP TO 7-9 FT ON THE EXPOSED
WATERS.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BUT
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
*** LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE COMPARABLE
 IMPACTS TO EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE IN MANY AREAS EXCEPT PROBABLY
 HIGHER IMPACTS NORTH SIDE OF CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET ***

FORECAST FOR LATE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IS TRICKY WHEN IT COMES TO
THE  DETAILS. THE SURGE SHOULD BE SUBSIDING BUT NOT FAST ENOUGH
TO PRECLUDE PROBLEMS. THE ISSUE IS HOW FAST THE SURGE SUBSIDES.
BELIEVE WAVES WILL BE HIGHER THAN AT THE TIME OF THE EARLY MORNING
HIGH TIDE BUT ALSO STARTING TO SUBSIDE. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF
OTHER FACTORS TO CONSIDER. SOME SHORELINE DEFENSES MAY HAVE BEEN
COMPROMISED WITH THE EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE AND THUS INCREASING
VULNERABILITY FOR AT LEAST A FEW SPOTS. ALSO...WAVE PERIODS HAVE
INCREASED TO THE 13 TO 15 SECOND RANGE AND SUGGEST GREATER ENERGY
IN THE BREAKING SURF THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED WITH EARLY THIS
MORNING. AND THERE ARE SOME AREAS WHICH REMAIN INUNDATED FROM THE
EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE WITH THE WATER UNABLE TO DRAIN...AN
UNSETTLING SITUATION FOR SURE.

GREATEST CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL IMPACT FOR CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET. VERY STRONG ONSHORE WINDS WILL JUST BE STARTING TO
DIMINISH AS WE APPROACH THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE AND SO THINK THE
SURGE WILL REMAIN NEAR 4.5 FEET ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF CAPE COD
AND NEAR 4 FEET IN NANTUCKET HARBOR. THESE VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE
THOSE FROM BOTH THE ETSS AND ESTOFS GUIDANCE. EXPECT A WORSE
IMPACT FOR THE NORTH SIDE OF CAPE COD AND PROBABLY AT LEAST A
LITTLE WORSE FOR NANTUCKET. BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE
IN THESE SAME AREAS AS WELL AS THE OCEAN SIDE OF CAPE COD FROM
TRURO TO CHATHAM.

ELSEWHERE ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST...ANTICIPATE
COMPARABLE COASTAL FLOOD IMPACT FOR THE SHORELINE FROM HULL TO
PLYMOUTH WITH RUNUP AND OVERWASH AS BIG OR PERHAPS EVEN BIGGER
FACTOR DUE TO THE LARGE WAVES. WE ARE ALSO THINKING A COMPARABLE
IMPACT FOR THE SHORELINE FROM SALISBURY TO ROCKPORT WITH LARGE
WAVES AND EROSION PLAYING A ROLE THERE AS WELL. IN CONTRAST...THE
SHIFT IN THE WIND TO BE FROM THE N OR NNW IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
LESS IMPACT ALONG THE NORTH SHORE FROM BOSTON TO GLOUCESTER.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE
CYCLE...GENERALLY BETWEEN 530 AM AND 630 AM...ANTICIPATE POCKETS
OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG NORTH AND NORTHEAST FACING
SHORELINES AS WELL AS SOME ADDITIONAL EROSION. IMPACTS FOR THE
EARLY WEDNESDAY HIGH TIDE WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN WHAT WE HAVE
EXPERIENCED OR WILL HAVE EXPERIENCED DURING THE HIGH TIDES TODAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ007-
     019-022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ019-022-
     024.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-251.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ231-232-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ230-
     233>237-256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/FRANK
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB
MARINE...WTB/FRANK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



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