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000
FXUS61 KBOX 292036
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
435 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A MAINLY DRY...WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID AFTERNOON IS IN STORE FOR
MOST THE REGION FOR SATURDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY...THEN STALL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY...AND A PERIOD OF RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
DRY WEATHER FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

A VERY TRICKY FORECAST TONIGHT IN REGARDS TO LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL.
LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SITTING JUST OFF THE EASTERN MA COAST MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...SOLAR HEATING HAS KEPT THEM BASICALLY JUST
OFFSHORE...EXCEPT AFFECTING PORTIONS OF COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND
THE OUTER-CAPE FOR A TIME.  GIVEN EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING...DO NOT EXPECT THESE LOW CLOUDS TO
REALLY MOVE INLAND.  ITS POSSIBLE THAT THEY MAKE IT ONSHORE FOR AN
HOUR OR TWO TOWARDS SUNSET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH SHORE WITH
SURFACE WINDS TURNING SOUTH BUT PROBABLY SHORT LIVED.

OTHERWISE...THE FOCUS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH
COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS SITTING
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND AS WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY AND BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLS...SHOULD SEE THEM ADVECT NORTHWARD.  LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW FAR
NORTH THESE LOW CLOUDS ADVECT...BUT PROBABLY AFFECT THE SOUTH COAST
AND PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE MA PIKE.  SOME FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED
AND CAN/T RULE OUT A PERIOD OF DENSE FOG ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THAT IS LOW.

OTHERWISE...A DRY NIGHT OTHER THAN PERHAPS A BIT OF MIST TOWARD
DAYBREAK ALONG WITH THE FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.
LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

***A WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID SATURDAY AFTERNOON IS ON TAP INLAND
  FROM THE SOUTH COAST***

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL ALLOW A WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIRMASS TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY.  LOW
CLOUDS THAT FORM SOUTH OF MA PIKE SHOULD SCOUR OUT BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IF NOT EARLIER FOR MOST OF THE REGION.  HOWEVER...LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES MAY LINGER ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH
COAST/CAPE/ISLANDS.

OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S TO
THE NORTHWEST OF A BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE LINE.  THE WARMEST OF THOSE
READINGS SHOULD BE FOUND IN THE MERRIMACK VALLEY.  TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF A BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE LINE...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL HOLD
HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.  IN FACT...SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH GOOD MIXING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY A DRY DAY ACROSS THE
REGION.  BEST FORCING/INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS WILL BE WELL TO OUR
NORTHWEST WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  JUST A LOW RISK OF A SPOT
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS
NORTHWEST MA.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY APPROACHING OUR REGION FROM THE WEST.  A
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN A MILD NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPS
ONLY DROPPING TO BETWEEN 60 AND 65.  DRY WEATHER SHOULD DOMINATE THE
FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...BUT WE MAY SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.  THIS IS
RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL JET AND A BURST OF INSTABILITY.  ACTIVITY WILL
PROBABLY BE HIT AND MISS THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY...WITH THE BULK OF
IT TO THE NORTHWEST OF I-95.  BULK OF LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  ENOUGH WIND IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MAY PREVENT A LOT OF FOG FROM DEVELOPING...BUT STILL CAN NOT
RULE OUT SOME DEVELOPING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

BIG PICTURE...

CHANGEABLE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK. UPPER RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE
SUNDAY. UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY CROSSES THE NORTHEAST USA EARLY WEEK.
UPPER RIDGE FROM THE WESTERN USA THEN SHIFTS EAST OVER THE EASTERN
USA LATE WEEK.

DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS REGARDING TIMING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
EARLY WEEK WITH THE GGEM THE FASTEST AND ECMWF SLOWEST. WE USED A
MODEL CONSENSUS IN TIMING.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... COLD FRONT EITHER OVER OR JUST NORTH OF
NORTHERN MASS SUNDAY MORNING WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL BE 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES WHICH IS AROUND 2 STD DEV ABOVE
NORMAL. TOTALS OF 47-49 AND SHOWALTERS OF 0 TO -2. ALL OF THIS
SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER
THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS ON TIMING THE FROPA BUT ALL MOVE IT
SOUTH OF THE COAST BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE FRONT IS THEN ALIGNED WITH
THE UPPER FLOW AND STALLS. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
IS FORECAST TO GENERATE A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT WHICH CROSSES THE
APPALACHIANS MONDAY AND PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY. THIS
ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA SHOULD BRING A COOL
NORTHEAST FLOW TO THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE A
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ABOVE 5OOO FEET AGL AND SUPPIES LIFT AND
MOISTURE OVER THE TOP. WE WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS MONDAY
DIMINISHING TO CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES
EAST.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SURFACE AND ALOFT
BRINGING DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THE DEMISE OF THE
NORTHEAST MARINE FLOW...MIXING SHOULD RETURN WITH HEIGHTS REACHING
AT LEAST 875 MB WEDNESDAY AND AT LEAST 850 MB THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER EACH DAY SUGGEST MAX SFC
TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S WEDNESDAY...70S TO NEAR 80
THURSDAY...AND 75-85 FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  LOW CLOUDS SITTING JUST OFF
THE EASTERN MA COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN MA
COAST TURN SOUTH SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING...SO THAT SHOULD LIMIT LOW
CLOUDS COMING IN FROM THE EAST.  THEREFORE...EVEN IF THEY DO GET
INTO BOSTON THEY WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND MAY REMAIN JUST OFF THE
COAST.  THE BIGGER CONCERN THEN TURNS TO LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES THAT
MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ESPECIALLY CAPE/ISLANDS.
AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES SOUTH OF
PIKE PROBABLY SCOUR OUT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT
CAPE/ISLANDS WHERE THEY MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON.  DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A SPOT
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHWEST MA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR TO MARGINAL MVFR
CIGS EXCEPT FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WHERE IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL
BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH THE HIGHER RISK DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

KBOS TERMINAL...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF EARLY THIS EVENING. IFR CIGS
SITTING JUST EAST OF THE TERMINAL AT LATE AFTERNOON.  GIVEN WINDS
TURNING SOUTH SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS EVENING...THEY MAY NEVER MAKE IT
INTO THE TERMINAL.  HOWEVER...ITS POSSIBLE THAT THEY DO FOR AN HOUR
OR TWO SINCE THEIR SO CLOSE AND WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR.

KBDL TERMINAL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  MVFR TO IFR CIGS
MAY DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT UNCERTAIN.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY... COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. VFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO START...BECOMING NORTHEAST BY EVENING.  WINDS AT
2000-3000 FEET AGL START SOUTHWEST 25-35 KNOTS AND BECOME NORTHEAST
25 TO 30 KNOTS BY EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS LINGER THROUGH THE DAY AT
OR ABOVE 5000 FEET.  THIS MAY CREATE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT
TIMES...DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE VERTICAL IS LIKELY AND SPEED SHEAR
POSSIBLY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH BEST CHANCE
OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SLOPES OF THE WORCESTER HILLS.
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH BOTH DAYS.

WEDNESDAY... VFR WITH A NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
HOWEVER...AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
WATERS BUT ITS UNCERTAIN IF IT WILL BECOME DENSE.

SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  EXCELLENT MIXING OVER THE
LAND WILL GENERATE NEAR SHORE SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  IN ADDITION...SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL
GENERATE 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS.  THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT HEADLINES POSTED FOR ALL WATERS.  AREAS OF FOG MAY BE LOCALLY
DENSE IN THE MORNING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...SHOULD IMPROVE SOMEWHAT
BY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NEAR SHORE SMALL
CRAFT WIND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH SATURDAY EVENING.  HOWEVER...5 FOOT
SWELL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS.  SOME FOG POSSIBLE SAT
NIGHT...BUT PROBABLY NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS TONIGHT GIVEN SOME MORE
BOUNDARY LAYER WIND.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ON SOME OF THE WATERS. A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE EASTERN WATERS DURING THE DAY. THE FRONT
CROSSES THE SOUTHERN WATERS SUNDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECTING SOUTHWEST
GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO NORTHEAST
AND EAST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS FROM THAT
DIRECTION. SEAS LINGER AROUND 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ESPECIALLY ON
THE EASTERN WATERS. NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KNOTS EACH DAY.
SEAS 5 TO 8 FEET ON THE EASTERN MASS WATERS...AND 3 TO 5 FEET ON THE
SOUTHERN WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED...MAINLY ON THE
EASTERN WATERS. DIMINISHING NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS. SEAS OF 5 FEET
MAY LINGER ON THE EASTERN WATERS.


&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 10 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/WTB
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...FRANK/WTB
MARINE...FRANK/WTB




000
FXUS61 KBOX 292036
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
435 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A MAINLY DRY...WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID AFTERNOON IS IN STORE FOR
MOST THE REGION FOR SATURDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY...THEN STALL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY...AND A PERIOD OF RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
DRY WEATHER FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

A VERY TRICKY FORECAST TONIGHT IN REGARDS TO LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL.
LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SITTING JUST OFF THE EASTERN MA COAST MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...SOLAR HEATING HAS KEPT THEM BASICALLY JUST
OFFSHORE...EXCEPT AFFECTING PORTIONS OF COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND
THE OUTER-CAPE FOR A TIME.  GIVEN EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING...DO NOT EXPECT THESE LOW CLOUDS TO
REALLY MOVE INLAND.  ITS POSSIBLE THAT THEY MAKE IT ONSHORE FOR AN
HOUR OR TWO TOWARDS SUNSET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH SHORE WITH
SURFACE WINDS TURNING SOUTH BUT PROBABLY SHORT LIVED.

OTHERWISE...THE FOCUS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH
COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS SITTING
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND AS WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY AND BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLS...SHOULD SEE THEM ADVECT NORTHWARD.  LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW FAR
NORTH THESE LOW CLOUDS ADVECT...BUT PROBABLY AFFECT THE SOUTH COAST
AND PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE MA PIKE.  SOME FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED
AND CAN/T RULE OUT A PERIOD OF DENSE FOG ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THAT IS LOW.

OTHERWISE...A DRY NIGHT OTHER THAN PERHAPS A BIT OF MIST TOWARD
DAYBREAK ALONG WITH THE FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.
LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

***A WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID SATURDAY AFTERNOON IS ON TAP INLAND
  FROM THE SOUTH COAST***

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL ALLOW A WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIRMASS TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY.  LOW
CLOUDS THAT FORM SOUTH OF MA PIKE SHOULD SCOUR OUT BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IF NOT EARLIER FOR MOST OF THE REGION.  HOWEVER...LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES MAY LINGER ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH
COAST/CAPE/ISLANDS.

OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S TO
THE NORTHWEST OF A BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE LINE.  THE WARMEST OF THOSE
READINGS SHOULD BE FOUND IN THE MERRIMACK VALLEY.  TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF A BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE LINE...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL HOLD
HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.  IN FACT...SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH GOOD MIXING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY A DRY DAY ACROSS THE
REGION.  BEST FORCING/INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS WILL BE WELL TO OUR
NORTHWEST WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  JUST A LOW RISK OF A SPOT
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS
NORTHWEST MA.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY APPROACHING OUR REGION FROM THE WEST.  A
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN A MILD NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPS
ONLY DROPPING TO BETWEEN 60 AND 65.  DRY WEATHER SHOULD DOMINATE THE
FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...BUT WE MAY SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.  THIS IS
RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL JET AND A BURST OF INSTABILITY.  ACTIVITY WILL
PROBABLY BE HIT AND MISS THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY...WITH THE BULK OF
IT TO THE NORTHWEST OF I-95.  BULK OF LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  ENOUGH WIND IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MAY PREVENT A LOT OF FOG FROM DEVELOPING...BUT STILL CAN NOT
RULE OUT SOME DEVELOPING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

BIG PICTURE...

CHANGEABLE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK. UPPER RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE
SUNDAY. UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY CROSSES THE NORTHEAST USA EARLY WEEK.
UPPER RIDGE FROM THE WESTERN USA THEN SHIFTS EAST OVER THE EASTERN
USA LATE WEEK.

DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS REGARDING TIMING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
EARLY WEEK WITH THE GGEM THE FASTEST AND ECMWF SLOWEST. WE USED A
MODEL CONSENSUS IN TIMING.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... COLD FRONT EITHER OVER OR JUST NORTH OF
NORTHERN MASS SUNDAY MORNING WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL BE 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES WHICH IS AROUND 2 STD DEV ABOVE
NORMAL. TOTALS OF 47-49 AND SHOWALTERS OF 0 TO -2. ALL OF THIS
SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER
THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS ON TIMING THE FROPA BUT ALL MOVE IT
SOUTH OF THE COAST BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE FRONT IS THEN ALIGNED WITH
THE UPPER FLOW AND STALLS. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
IS FORECAST TO GENERATE A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT WHICH CROSSES THE
APPALACHIANS MONDAY AND PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY. THIS
ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA SHOULD BRING A COOL
NORTHEAST FLOW TO THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE A
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ABOVE 5OOO FEET AGL AND SUPPIES LIFT AND
MOISTURE OVER THE TOP. WE WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS MONDAY
DIMINISHING TO CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES
EAST.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SURFACE AND ALOFT
BRINGING DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THE DEMISE OF THE
NORTHEAST MARINE FLOW...MIXING SHOULD RETURN WITH HEIGHTS REACHING
AT LEAST 875 MB WEDNESDAY AND AT LEAST 850 MB THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER EACH DAY SUGGEST MAX SFC
TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S WEDNESDAY...70S TO NEAR 80
THURSDAY...AND 75-85 FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  LOW CLOUDS SITTING JUST OFF
THE EASTERN MA COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN MA
COAST TURN SOUTH SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING...SO THAT SHOULD LIMIT LOW
CLOUDS COMING IN FROM THE EAST.  THEREFORE...EVEN IF THEY DO GET
INTO BOSTON THEY WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND MAY REMAIN JUST OFF THE
COAST.  THE BIGGER CONCERN THEN TURNS TO LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES THAT
MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ESPECIALLY CAPE/ISLANDS.
AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES SOUTH OF
PIKE PROBABLY SCOUR OUT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT
CAPE/ISLANDS WHERE THEY MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON.  DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A SPOT
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHWEST MA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR TO MARGINAL MVFR
CIGS EXCEPT FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WHERE IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL
BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH THE HIGHER RISK DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

KBOS TERMINAL...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF EARLY THIS EVENING. IFR CIGS
SITTING JUST EAST OF THE TERMINAL AT LATE AFTERNOON.  GIVEN WINDS
TURNING SOUTH SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS EVENING...THEY MAY NEVER MAKE IT
INTO THE TERMINAL.  HOWEVER...ITS POSSIBLE THAT THEY DO FOR AN HOUR
OR TWO SINCE THEIR SO CLOSE AND WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR.

KBDL TERMINAL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  MVFR TO IFR CIGS
MAY DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT UNCERTAIN.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY... COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. VFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO START...BECOMING NORTHEAST BY EVENING.  WINDS AT
2000-3000 FEET AGL START SOUTHWEST 25-35 KNOTS AND BECOME NORTHEAST
25 TO 30 KNOTS BY EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS LINGER THROUGH THE DAY AT
OR ABOVE 5000 FEET.  THIS MAY CREATE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT
TIMES...DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE VERTICAL IS LIKELY AND SPEED SHEAR
POSSIBLY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH BEST CHANCE
OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SLOPES OF THE WORCESTER HILLS.
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH BOTH DAYS.

WEDNESDAY... VFR WITH A NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
HOWEVER...AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
WATERS BUT ITS UNCERTAIN IF IT WILL BECOME DENSE.

SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  EXCELLENT MIXING OVER THE
LAND WILL GENERATE NEAR SHORE SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  IN ADDITION...SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL
GENERATE 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS.  THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT HEADLINES POSTED FOR ALL WATERS.  AREAS OF FOG MAY BE LOCALLY
DENSE IN THE MORNING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...SHOULD IMPROVE SOMEWHAT
BY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NEAR SHORE SMALL
CRAFT WIND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH SATURDAY EVENING.  HOWEVER...5 FOOT
SWELL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS.  SOME FOG POSSIBLE SAT
NIGHT...BUT PROBABLY NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS TONIGHT GIVEN SOME MORE
BOUNDARY LAYER WIND.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ON SOME OF THE WATERS. A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE EASTERN WATERS DURING THE DAY. THE FRONT
CROSSES THE SOUTHERN WATERS SUNDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECTING SOUTHWEST
GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO NORTHEAST
AND EAST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS FROM THAT
DIRECTION. SEAS LINGER AROUND 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ESPECIALLY ON
THE EASTERN WATERS. NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KNOTS EACH DAY.
SEAS 5 TO 8 FEET ON THE EASTERN MASS WATERS...AND 3 TO 5 FEET ON THE
SOUTHERN WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED...MAINLY ON THE
EASTERN WATERS. DIMINISHING NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS. SEAS OF 5 FEET
MAY LINGER ON THE EASTERN WATERS.


&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 10 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/WTB
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...FRANK/WTB
MARINE...FRANK/WTB



000
FXUS61 KBOX 292036
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
435 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A MAINLY DRY...WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID AFTERNOON IS IN STORE FOR
MOST THE REGION FOR SATURDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY...THEN STALL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY...AND A PERIOD OF RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
DRY WEATHER FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

A VERY TRICKY FORECAST TONIGHT IN REGARDS TO LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL.
LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SITTING JUST OFF THE EASTERN MA COAST MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...SOLAR HEATING HAS KEPT THEM BASICALLY JUST
OFFSHORE...EXCEPT AFFECTING PORTIONS OF COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND
THE OUTER-CAPE FOR A TIME.  GIVEN EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING...DO NOT EXPECT THESE LOW CLOUDS TO
REALLY MOVE INLAND.  ITS POSSIBLE THAT THEY MAKE IT ONSHORE FOR AN
HOUR OR TWO TOWARDS SUNSET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH SHORE WITH
SURFACE WINDS TURNING SOUTH BUT PROBABLY SHORT LIVED.

OTHERWISE...THE FOCUS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH
COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS SITTING
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND AS WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY AND BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLS...SHOULD SEE THEM ADVECT NORTHWARD.  LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW FAR
NORTH THESE LOW CLOUDS ADVECT...BUT PROBABLY AFFECT THE SOUTH COAST
AND PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE MA PIKE.  SOME FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED
AND CAN/T RULE OUT A PERIOD OF DENSE FOG ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THAT IS LOW.

OTHERWISE...A DRY NIGHT OTHER THAN PERHAPS A BIT OF MIST TOWARD
DAYBREAK ALONG WITH THE FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.
LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

***A WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID SATURDAY AFTERNOON IS ON TAP INLAND
  FROM THE SOUTH COAST***

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL ALLOW A WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIRMASS TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY.  LOW
CLOUDS THAT FORM SOUTH OF MA PIKE SHOULD SCOUR OUT BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IF NOT EARLIER FOR MOST OF THE REGION.  HOWEVER...LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES MAY LINGER ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH
COAST/CAPE/ISLANDS.

OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S TO
THE NORTHWEST OF A BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE LINE.  THE WARMEST OF THOSE
READINGS SHOULD BE FOUND IN THE MERRIMACK VALLEY.  TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF A BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE LINE...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL HOLD
HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.  IN FACT...SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH GOOD MIXING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY A DRY DAY ACROSS THE
REGION.  BEST FORCING/INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS WILL BE WELL TO OUR
NORTHWEST WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  JUST A LOW RISK OF A SPOT
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS
NORTHWEST MA.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY APPROACHING OUR REGION FROM THE WEST.  A
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN A MILD NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPS
ONLY DROPPING TO BETWEEN 60 AND 65.  DRY WEATHER SHOULD DOMINATE THE
FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...BUT WE MAY SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.  THIS IS
RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL JET AND A BURST OF INSTABILITY.  ACTIVITY WILL
PROBABLY BE HIT AND MISS THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY...WITH THE BULK OF
IT TO THE NORTHWEST OF I-95.  BULK OF LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  ENOUGH WIND IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MAY PREVENT A LOT OF FOG FROM DEVELOPING...BUT STILL CAN NOT
RULE OUT SOME DEVELOPING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

BIG PICTURE...

CHANGEABLE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK. UPPER RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE
SUNDAY. UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY CROSSES THE NORTHEAST USA EARLY WEEK.
UPPER RIDGE FROM THE WESTERN USA THEN SHIFTS EAST OVER THE EASTERN
USA LATE WEEK.

DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS REGARDING TIMING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
EARLY WEEK WITH THE GGEM THE FASTEST AND ECMWF SLOWEST. WE USED A
MODEL CONSENSUS IN TIMING.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... COLD FRONT EITHER OVER OR JUST NORTH OF
NORTHERN MASS SUNDAY MORNING WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL BE 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES WHICH IS AROUND 2 STD DEV ABOVE
NORMAL. TOTALS OF 47-49 AND SHOWALTERS OF 0 TO -2. ALL OF THIS
SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER
THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS ON TIMING THE FROPA BUT ALL MOVE IT
SOUTH OF THE COAST BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE FRONT IS THEN ALIGNED WITH
THE UPPER FLOW AND STALLS. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
IS FORECAST TO GENERATE A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT WHICH CROSSES THE
APPALACHIANS MONDAY AND PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY. THIS
ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA SHOULD BRING A COOL
NORTHEAST FLOW TO THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE A
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ABOVE 5OOO FEET AGL AND SUPPIES LIFT AND
MOISTURE OVER THE TOP. WE WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS MONDAY
DIMINISHING TO CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES
EAST.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SURFACE AND ALOFT
BRINGING DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THE DEMISE OF THE
NORTHEAST MARINE FLOW...MIXING SHOULD RETURN WITH HEIGHTS REACHING
AT LEAST 875 MB WEDNESDAY AND AT LEAST 850 MB THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER EACH DAY SUGGEST MAX SFC
TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S WEDNESDAY...70S TO NEAR 80
THURSDAY...AND 75-85 FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  LOW CLOUDS SITTING JUST OFF
THE EASTERN MA COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN MA
COAST TURN SOUTH SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING...SO THAT SHOULD LIMIT LOW
CLOUDS COMING IN FROM THE EAST.  THEREFORE...EVEN IF THEY DO GET
INTO BOSTON THEY WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND MAY REMAIN JUST OFF THE
COAST.  THE BIGGER CONCERN THEN TURNS TO LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES THAT
MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ESPECIALLY CAPE/ISLANDS.
AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES SOUTH OF
PIKE PROBABLY SCOUR OUT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT
CAPE/ISLANDS WHERE THEY MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON.  DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A SPOT
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHWEST MA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR TO MARGINAL MVFR
CIGS EXCEPT FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WHERE IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL
BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH THE HIGHER RISK DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

KBOS TERMINAL...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF EARLY THIS EVENING. IFR CIGS
SITTING JUST EAST OF THE TERMINAL AT LATE AFTERNOON.  GIVEN WINDS
TURNING SOUTH SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS EVENING...THEY MAY NEVER MAKE IT
INTO THE TERMINAL.  HOWEVER...ITS POSSIBLE THAT THEY DO FOR AN HOUR
OR TWO SINCE THEIR SO CLOSE AND WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR.

KBDL TERMINAL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  MVFR TO IFR CIGS
MAY DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT UNCERTAIN.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY... COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. VFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO START...BECOMING NORTHEAST BY EVENING.  WINDS AT
2000-3000 FEET AGL START SOUTHWEST 25-35 KNOTS AND BECOME NORTHEAST
25 TO 30 KNOTS BY EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS LINGER THROUGH THE DAY AT
OR ABOVE 5000 FEET.  THIS MAY CREATE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT
TIMES...DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE VERTICAL IS LIKELY AND SPEED SHEAR
POSSIBLY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH BEST CHANCE
OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SLOPES OF THE WORCESTER HILLS.
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH BOTH DAYS.

WEDNESDAY... VFR WITH A NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
HOWEVER...AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
WATERS BUT ITS UNCERTAIN IF IT WILL BECOME DENSE.

SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  EXCELLENT MIXING OVER THE
LAND WILL GENERATE NEAR SHORE SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  IN ADDITION...SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL
GENERATE 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS.  THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT HEADLINES POSTED FOR ALL WATERS.  AREAS OF FOG MAY BE LOCALLY
DENSE IN THE MORNING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...SHOULD IMPROVE SOMEWHAT
BY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NEAR SHORE SMALL
CRAFT WIND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH SATURDAY EVENING.  HOWEVER...5 FOOT
SWELL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS.  SOME FOG POSSIBLE SAT
NIGHT...BUT PROBABLY NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS TONIGHT GIVEN SOME MORE
BOUNDARY LAYER WIND.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ON SOME OF THE WATERS. A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE EASTERN WATERS DURING THE DAY. THE FRONT
CROSSES THE SOUTHERN WATERS SUNDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECTING SOUTHWEST
GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO NORTHEAST
AND EAST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS FROM THAT
DIRECTION. SEAS LINGER AROUND 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ESPECIALLY ON
THE EASTERN WATERS. NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KNOTS EACH DAY.
SEAS 5 TO 8 FEET ON THE EASTERN MASS WATERS...AND 3 TO 5 FEET ON THE
SOUTHERN WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED...MAINLY ON THE
EASTERN WATERS. DIMINISHING NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS. SEAS OF 5 FEET
MAY LINGER ON THE EASTERN WATERS.


&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 10 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/WTB
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...FRANK/WTB
MARINE...FRANK/WTB



000
FXUS61 KBOX 292036
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
435 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A MAINLY DRY...WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID AFTERNOON IS IN STORE FOR
MOST THE REGION FOR SATURDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY...THEN STALL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY...AND A PERIOD OF RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
DRY WEATHER FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

A VERY TRICKY FORECAST TONIGHT IN REGARDS TO LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL.
LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SITTING JUST OFF THE EASTERN MA COAST MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...SOLAR HEATING HAS KEPT THEM BASICALLY JUST
OFFSHORE...EXCEPT AFFECTING PORTIONS OF COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND
THE OUTER-CAPE FOR A TIME.  GIVEN EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING...DO NOT EXPECT THESE LOW CLOUDS TO
REALLY MOVE INLAND.  ITS POSSIBLE THAT THEY MAKE IT ONSHORE FOR AN
HOUR OR TWO TOWARDS SUNSET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH SHORE WITH
SURFACE WINDS TURNING SOUTH BUT PROBABLY SHORT LIVED.

OTHERWISE...THE FOCUS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH
COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS SITTING
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND AS WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY AND BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLS...SHOULD SEE THEM ADVECT NORTHWARD.  LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW FAR
NORTH THESE LOW CLOUDS ADVECT...BUT PROBABLY AFFECT THE SOUTH COAST
AND PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE MA PIKE.  SOME FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED
AND CAN/T RULE OUT A PERIOD OF DENSE FOG ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THAT IS LOW.

OTHERWISE...A DRY NIGHT OTHER THAN PERHAPS A BIT OF MIST TOWARD
DAYBREAK ALONG WITH THE FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.
LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

***A WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID SATURDAY AFTERNOON IS ON TAP INLAND
  FROM THE SOUTH COAST***

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL ALLOW A WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIRMASS TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY.  LOW
CLOUDS THAT FORM SOUTH OF MA PIKE SHOULD SCOUR OUT BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IF NOT EARLIER FOR MOST OF THE REGION.  HOWEVER...LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES MAY LINGER ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH
COAST/CAPE/ISLANDS.

OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S TO
THE NORTHWEST OF A BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE LINE.  THE WARMEST OF THOSE
READINGS SHOULD BE FOUND IN THE MERRIMACK VALLEY.  TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF A BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE LINE...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL HOLD
HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.  IN FACT...SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH GOOD MIXING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY A DRY DAY ACROSS THE
REGION.  BEST FORCING/INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS WILL BE WELL TO OUR
NORTHWEST WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  JUST A LOW RISK OF A SPOT
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS
NORTHWEST MA.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY APPROACHING OUR REGION FROM THE WEST.  A
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN A MILD NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPS
ONLY DROPPING TO BETWEEN 60 AND 65.  DRY WEATHER SHOULD DOMINATE THE
FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...BUT WE MAY SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.  THIS IS
RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL JET AND A BURST OF INSTABILITY.  ACTIVITY WILL
PROBABLY BE HIT AND MISS THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY...WITH THE BULK OF
IT TO THE NORTHWEST OF I-95.  BULK OF LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  ENOUGH WIND IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MAY PREVENT A LOT OF FOG FROM DEVELOPING...BUT STILL CAN NOT
RULE OUT SOME DEVELOPING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

BIG PICTURE...

CHANGEABLE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK. UPPER RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE
SUNDAY. UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY CROSSES THE NORTHEAST USA EARLY WEEK.
UPPER RIDGE FROM THE WESTERN USA THEN SHIFTS EAST OVER THE EASTERN
USA LATE WEEK.

DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS REGARDING TIMING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
EARLY WEEK WITH THE GGEM THE FASTEST AND ECMWF SLOWEST. WE USED A
MODEL CONSENSUS IN TIMING.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... COLD FRONT EITHER OVER OR JUST NORTH OF
NORTHERN MASS SUNDAY MORNING WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL BE 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES WHICH IS AROUND 2 STD DEV ABOVE
NORMAL. TOTALS OF 47-49 AND SHOWALTERS OF 0 TO -2. ALL OF THIS
SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER
THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS ON TIMING THE FROPA BUT ALL MOVE IT
SOUTH OF THE COAST BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE FRONT IS THEN ALIGNED WITH
THE UPPER FLOW AND STALLS. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
IS FORECAST TO GENERATE A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT WHICH CROSSES THE
APPALACHIANS MONDAY AND PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY. THIS
ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA SHOULD BRING A COOL
NORTHEAST FLOW TO THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE A
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ABOVE 5OOO FEET AGL AND SUPPIES LIFT AND
MOISTURE OVER THE TOP. WE WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS MONDAY
DIMINISHING TO CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES
EAST.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SURFACE AND ALOFT
BRINGING DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THE DEMISE OF THE
NORTHEAST MARINE FLOW...MIXING SHOULD RETURN WITH HEIGHTS REACHING
AT LEAST 875 MB WEDNESDAY AND AT LEAST 850 MB THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER EACH DAY SUGGEST MAX SFC
TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S WEDNESDAY...70S TO NEAR 80
THURSDAY...AND 75-85 FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  LOW CLOUDS SITTING JUST OFF
THE EASTERN MA COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN MA
COAST TURN SOUTH SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING...SO THAT SHOULD LIMIT LOW
CLOUDS COMING IN FROM THE EAST.  THEREFORE...EVEN IF THEY DO GET
INTO BOSTON THEY WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND MAY REMAIN JUST OFF THE
COAST.  THE BIGGER CONCERN THEN TURNS TO LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES THAT
MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ESPECIALLY CAPE/ISLANDS.
AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES SOUTH OF
PIKE PROBABLY SCOUR OUT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT
CAPE/ISLANDS WHERE THEY MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON.  DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A SPOT
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHWEST MA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR TO MARGINAL MVFR
CIGS EXCEPT FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WHERE IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL
BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH THE HIGHER RISK DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

KBOS TERMINAL...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF EARLY THIS EVENING. IFR CIGS
SITTING JUST EAST OF THE TERMINAL AT LATE AFTERNOON.  GIVEN WINDS
TURNING SOUTH SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS EVENING...THEY MAY NEVER MAKE IT
INTO THE TERMINAL.  HOWEVER...ITS POSSIBLE THAT THEY DO FOR AN HOUR
OR TWO SINCE THEIR SO CLOSE AND WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR.

KBDL TERMINAL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  MVFR TO IFR CIGS
MAY DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT UNCERTAIN.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY... COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. VFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO START...BECOMING NORTHEAST BY EVENING.  WINDS AT
2000-3000 FEET AGL START SOUTHWEST 25-35 KNOTS AND BECOME NORTHEAST
25 TO 30 KNOTS BY EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS LINGER THROUGH THE DAY AT
OR ABOVE 5000 FEET.  THIS MAY CREATE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT
TIMES...DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE VERTICAL IS LIKELY AND SPEED SHEAR
POSSIBLY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH BEST CHANCE
OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SLOPES OF THE WORCESTER HILLS.
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH BOTH DAYS.

WEDNESDAY... VFR WITH A NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
HOWEVER...AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
WATERS BUT ITS UNCERTAIN IF IT WILL BECOME DENSE.

SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  EXCELLENT MIXING OVER THE
LAND WILL GENERATE NEAR SHORE SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  IN ADDITION...SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL
GENERATE 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS.  THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT HEADLINES POSTED FOR ALL WATERS.  AREAS OF FOG MAY BE LOCALLY
DENSE IN THE MORNING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...SHOULD IMPROVE SOMEWHAT
BY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NEAR SHORE SMALL
CRAFT WIND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH SATURDAY EVENING.  HOWEVER...5 FOOT
SWELL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS.  SOME FOG POSSIBLE SAT
NIGHT...BUT PROBABLY NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS TONIGHT GIVEN SOME MORE
BOUNDARY LAYER WIND.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ON SOME OF THE WATERS. A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE EASTERN WATERS DURING THE DAY. THE FRONT
CROSSES THE SOUTHERN WATERS SUNDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECTING SOUTHWEST
GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO NORTHEAST
AND EAST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS FROM THAT
DIRECTION. SEAS LINGER AROUND 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ESPECIALLY ON
THE EASTERN WATERS. NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KNOTS EACH DAY.
SEAS 5 TO 8 FEET ON THE EASTERN MASS WATERS...AND 3 TO 5 FEET ON THE
SOUTHERN WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED...MAINLY ON THE
EASTERN WATERS. DIMINISHING NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS. SEAS OF 5 FEET
MAY LINGER ON THE EASTERN WATERS.


&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 10 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/WTB
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...FRANK/WTB
MARINE...FRANK/WTB



000
FXUS61 KBOX 292036
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
435 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A MAINLY DRY...WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID AFTERNOON IS IN STORE FOR
MOST THE REGION FOR SATURDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY...THEN STALL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY...AND A PERIOD OF RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
DRY WEATHER FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

A VERY TRICKY FORECAST TONIGHT IN REGARDS TO LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL.
LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SITTING JUST OFF THE EASTERN MA COAST MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...SOLAR HEATING HAS KEPT THEM BASICALLY JUST
OFFSHORE...EXCEPT AFFECTING PORTIONS OF COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND
THE OUTER-CAPE FOR A TIME.  GIVEN EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING...DO NOT EXPECT THESE LOW CLOUDS TO
REALLY MOVE INLAND.  ITS POSSIBLE THAT THEY MAKE IT ONSHORE FOR AN
HOUR OR TWO TOWARDS SUNSET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH SHORE WITH
SURFACE WINDS TURNING SOUTH BUT PROBABLY SHORT LIVED.

OTHERWISE...THE FOCUS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH
COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS SITTING
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND AS WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY AND BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLS...SHOULD SEE THEM ADVECT NORTHWARD.  LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW FAR
NORTH THESE LOW CLOUDS ADVECT...BUT PROBABLY AFFECT THE SOUTH COAST
AND PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE MA PIKE.  SOME FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED
AND CAN/T RULE OUT A PERIOD OF DENSE FOG ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THAT IS LOW.

OTHERWISE...A DRY NIGHT OTHER THAN PERHAPS A BIT OF MIST TOWARD
DAYBREAK ALONG WITH THE FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.
LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

***A WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID SATURDAY AFTERNOON IS ON TAP INLAND
  FROM THE SOUTH COAST***

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL ALLOW A WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIRMASS TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY.  LOW
CLOUDS THAT FORM SOUTH OF MA PIKE SHOULD SCOUR OUT BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IF NOT EARLIER FOR MOST OF THE REGION.  HOWEVER...LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES MAY LINGER ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH
COAST/CAPE/ISLANDS.

OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S TO
THE NORTHWEST OF A BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE LINE.  THE WARMEST OF THOSE
READINGS SHOULD BE FOUND IN THE MERRIMACK VALLEY.  TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF A BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE LINE...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL HOLD
HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.  IN FACT...SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH GOOD MIXING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY A DRY DAY ACROSS THE
REGION.  BEST FORCING/INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS WILL BE WELL TO OUR
NORTHWEST WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  JUST A LOW RISK OF A SPOT
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS
NORTHWEST MA.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY APPROACHING OUR REGION FROM THE WEST.  A
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN A MILD NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPS
ONLY DROPPING TO BETWEEN 60 AND 65.  DRY WEATHER SHOULD DOMINATE THE
FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...BUT WE MAY SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.  THIS IS
RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL JET AND A BURST OF INSTABILITY.  ACTIVITY WILL
PROBABLY BE HIT AND MISS THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY...WITH THE BULK OF
IT TO THE NORTHWEST OF I-95.  BULK OF LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  ENOUGH WIND IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MAY PREVENT A LOT OF FOG FROM DEVELOPING...BUT STILL CAN NOT
RULE OUT SOME DEVELOPING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

BIG PICTURE...

CHANGEABLE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK. UPPER RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE
SUNDAY. UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY CROSSES THE NORTHEAST USA EARLY WEEK.
UPPER RIDGE FROM THE WESTERN USA THEN SHIFTS EAST OVER THE EASTERN
USA LATE WEEK.

DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS REGARDING TIMING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
EARLY WEEK WITH THE GGEM THE FASTEST AND ECMWF SLOWEST. WE USED A
MODEL CONSENSUS IN TIMING.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... COLD FRONT EITHER OVER OR JUST NORTH OF
NORTHERN MASS SUNDAY MORNING WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL BE 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES WHICH IS AROUND 2 STD DEV ABOVE
NORMAL. TOTALS OF 47-49 AND SHOWALTERS OF 0 TO -2. ALL OF THIS
SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER
THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS ON TIMING THE FROPA BUT ALL MOVE IT
SOUTH OF THE COAST BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE FRONT IS THEN ALIGNED WITH
THE UPPER FLOW AND STALLS. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
IS FORECAST TO GENERATE A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT WHICH CROSSES THE
APPALACHIANS MONDAY AND PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY. THIS
ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA SHOULD BRING A COOL
NORTHEAST FLOW TO THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE A
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ABOVE 5OOO FEET AGL AND SUPPIES LIFT AND
MOISTURE OVER THE TOP. WE WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS MONDAY
DIMINISHING TO CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES
EAST.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SURFACE AND ALOFT
BRINGING DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THE DEMISE OF THE
NORTHEAST MARINE FLOW...MIXING SHOULD RETURN WITH HEIGHTS REACHING
AT LEAST 875 MB WEDNESDAY AND AT LEAST 850 MB THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER EACH DAY SUGGEST MAX SFC
TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S WEDNESDAY...70S TO NEAR 80
THURSDAY...AND 75-85 FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  LOW CLOUDS SITTING JUST OFF
THE EASTERN MA COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN MA
COAST TURN SOUTH SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING...SO THAT SHOULD LIMIT LOW
CLOUDS COMING IN FROM THE EAST.  THEREFORE...EVEN IF THEY DO GET
INTO BOSTON THEY WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND MAY REMAIN JUST OFF THE
COAST.  THE BIGGER CONCERN THEN TURNS TO LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES THAT
MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ESPECIALLY CAPE/ISLANDS.
AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES SOUTH OF
PIKE PROBABLY SCOUR OUT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT
CAPE/ISLANDS WHERE THEY MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON.  DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A SPOT
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHWEST MA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR TO MARGINAL MVFR
CIGS EXCEPT FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WHERE IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL
BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH THE HIGHER RISK DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

KBOS TERMINAL...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF EARLY THIS EVENING. IFR CIGS
SITTING JUST EAST OF THE TERMINAL AT LATE AFTERNOON.  GIVEN WINDS
TURNING SOUTH SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS EVENING...THEY MAY NEVER MAKE IT
INTO THE TERMINAL.  HOWEVER...ITS POSSIBLE THAT THEY DO FOR AN HOUR
OR TWO SINCE THEIR SO CLOSE AND WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR.

KBDL TERMINAL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  MVFR TO IFR CIGS
MAY DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT UNCERTAIN.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY... COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. VFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO START...BECOMING NORTHEAST BY EVENING.  WINDS AT
2000-3000 FEET AGL START SOUTHWEST 25-35 KNOTS AND BECOME NORTHEAST
25 TO 30 KNOTS BY EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS LINGER THROUGH THE DAY AT
OR ABOVE 5000 FEET.  THIS MAY CREATE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT
TIMES...DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE VERTICAL IS LIKELY AND SPEED SHEAR
POSSIBLY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH BEST CHANCE
OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SLOPES OF THE WORCESTER HILLS.
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH BOTH DAYS.

WEDNESDAY... VFR WITH A NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
HOWEVER...AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
WATERS BUT ITS UNCERTAIN IF IT WILL BECOME DENSE.

SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  EXCELLENT MIXING OVER THE
LAND WILL GENERATE NEAR SHORE SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  IN ADDITION...SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL
GENERATE 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS.  THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT HEADLINES POSTED FOR ALL WATERS.  AREAS OF FOG MAY BE LOCALLY
DENSE IN THE MORNING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...SHOULD IMPROVE SOMEWHAT
BY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NEAR SHORE SMALL
CRAFT WIND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH SATURDAY EVENING.  HOWEVER...5 FOOT
SWELL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS.  SOME FOG POSSIBLE SAT
NIGHT...BUT PROBABLY NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS TONIGHT GIVEN SOME MORE
BOUNDARY LAYER WIND.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ON SOME OF THE WATERS. A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE EASTERN WATERS DURING THE DAY. THE FRONT
CROSSES THE SOUTHERN WATERS SUNDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECTING SOUTHWEST
GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO NORTHEAST
AND EAST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS FROM THAT
DIRECTION. SEAS LINGER AROUND 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ESPECIALLY ON
THE EASTERN WATERS. NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KNOTS EACH DAY.
SEAS 5 TO 8 FEET ON THE EASTERN MASS WATERS...AND 3 TO 5 FEET ON THE
SOUTHERN WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED...MAINLY ON THE
EASTERN WATERS. DIMINISHING NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS. SEAS OF 5 FEET
MAY LINGER ON THE EASTERN WATERS.


&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 10 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/WTB
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...FRANK/WTB
MARINE...FRANK/WTB



000
FXUS61 KBOX 292036
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
435 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A MAINLY DRY...WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID AFTERNOON IS IN STORE FOR
MOST THE REGION FOR SATURDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY...THEN STALL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY...AND A PERIOD OF RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
DRY WEATHER FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

A VERY TRICKY FORECAST TONIGHT IN REGARDS TO LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL.
LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SITTING JUST OFF THE EASTERN MA COAST MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...SOLAR HEATING HAS KEPT THEM BASICALLY JUST
OFFSHORE...EXCEPT AFFECTING PORTIONS OF COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND
THE OUTER-CAPE FOR A TIME.  GIVEN EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING...DO NOT EXPECT THESE LOW CLOUDS TO
REALLY MOVE INLAND.  ITS POSSIBLE THAT THEY MAKE IT ONSHORE FOR AN
HOUR OR TWO TOWARDS SUNSET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH SHORE WITH
SURFACE WINDS TURNING SOUTH BUT PROBABLY SHORT LIVED.

OTHERWISE...THE FOCUS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH
COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS SITTING
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND AS WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY AND BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLS...SHOULD SEE THEM ADVECT NORTHWARD.  LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW FAR
NORTH THESE LOW CLOUDS ADVECT...BUT PROBABLY AFFECT THE SOUTH COAST
AND PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE MA PIKE.  SOME FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED
AND CAN/T RULE OUT A PERIOD OF DENSE FOG ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THAT IS LOW.

OTHERWISE...A DRY NIGHT OTHER THAN PERHAPS A BIT OF MIST TOWARD
DAYBREAK ALONG WITH THE FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.
LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

***A WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID SATURDAY AFTERNOON IS ON TAP INLAND
  FROM THE SOUTH COAST***

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL ALLOW A WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIRMASS TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY.  LOW
CLOUDS THAT FORM SOUTH OF MA PIKE SHOULD SCOUR OUT BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IF NOT EARLIER FOR MOST OF THE REGION.  HOWEVER...LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES MAY LINGER ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH
COAST/CAPE/ISLANDS.

OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S TO
THE NORTHWEST OF A BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE LINE.  THE WARMEST OF THOSE
READINGS SHOULD BE FOUND IN THE MERRIMACK VALLEY.  TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF A BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE LINE...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL HOLD
HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.  IN FACT...SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH GOOD MIXING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY A DRY DAY ACROSS THE
REGION.  BEST FORCING/INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS WILL BE WELL TO OUR
NORTHWEST WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  JUST A LOW RISK OF A SPOT
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS
NORTHWEST MA.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY APPROACHING OUR REGION FROM THE WEST.  A
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN A MILD NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPS
ONLY DROPPING TO BETWEEN 60 AND 65.  DRY WEATHER SHOULD DOMINATE THE
FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...BUT WE MAY SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.  THIS IS
RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL JET AND A BURST OF INSTABILITY.  ACTIVITY WILL
PROBABLY BE HIT AND MISS THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY...WITH THE BULK OF
IT TO THE NORTHWEST OF I-95.  BULK OF LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  ENOUGH WIND IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MAY PREVENT A LOT OF FOG FROM DEVELOPING...BUT STILL CAN NOT
RULE OUT SOME DEVELOPING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

BIG PICTURE...

CHANGEABLE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK. UPPER RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE
SUNDAY. UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY CROSSES THE NORTHEAST USA EARLY WEEK.
UPPER RIDGE FROM THE WESTERN USA THEN SHIFTS EAST OVER THE EASTERN
USA LATE WEEK.

DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS REGARDING TIMING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
EARLY WEEK WITH THE GGEM THE FASTEST AND ECMWF SLOWEST. WE USED A
MODEL CONSENSUS IN TIMING.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... COLD FRONT EITHER OVER OR JUST NORTH OF
NORTHERN MASS SUNDAY MORNING WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL BE 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES WHICH IS AROUND 2 STD DEV ABOVE
NORMAL. TOTALS OF 47-49 AND SHOWALTERS OF 0 TO -2. ALL OF THIS
SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER
THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS ON TIMING THE FROPA BUT ALL MOVE IT
SOUTH OF THE COAST BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE FRONT IS THEN ALIGNED WITH
THE UPPER FLOW AND STALLS. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
IS FORECAST TO GENERATE A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT WHICH CROSSES THE
APPALACHIANS MONDAY AND PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY. THIS
ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA SHOULD BRING A COOL
NORTHEAST FLOW TO THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE A
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ABOVE 5OOO FEET AGL AND SUPPIES LIFT AND
MOISTURE OVER THE TOP. WE WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS MONDAY
DIMINISHING TO CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES
EAST.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SURFACE AND ALOFT
BRINGING DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THE DEMISE OF THE
NORTHEAST MARINE FLOW...MIXING SHOULD RETURN WITH HEIGHTS REACHING
AT LEAST 875 MB WEDNESDAY AND AT LEAST 850 MB THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER EACH DAY SUGGEST MAX SFC
TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S WEDNESDAY...70S TO NEAR 80
THURSDAY...AND 75-85 FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  LOW CLOUDS SITTING JUST OFF
THE EASTERN MA COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN MA
COAST TURN SOUTH SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING...SO THAT SHOULD LIMIT LOW
CLOUDS COMING IN FROM THE EAST.  THEREFORE...EVEN IF THEY DO GET
INTO BOSTON THEY WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND MAY REMAIN JUST OFF THE
COAST.  THE BIGGER CONCERN THEN TURNS TO LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES THAT
MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ESPECIALLY CAPE/ISLANDS.
AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES SOUTH OF
PIKE PROBABLY SCOUR OUT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT
CAPE/ISLANDS WHERE THEY MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON.  DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A SPOT
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHWEST MA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR TO MARGINAL MVFR
CIGS EXCEPT FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WHERE IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL
BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH THE HIGHER RISK DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

KBOS TERMINAL...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF EARLY THIS EVENING. IFR CIGS
SITTING JUST EAST OF THE TERMINAL AT LATE AFTERNOON.  GIVEN WINDS
TURNING SOUTH SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS EVENING...THEY MAY NEVER MAKE IT
INTO THE TERMINAL.  HOWEVER...ITS POSSIBLE THAT THEY DO FOR AN HOUR
OR TWO SINCE THEIR SO CLOSE AND WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR.

KBDL TERMINAL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  MVFR TO IFR CIGS
MAY DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT UNCERTAIN.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY... COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. VFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO START...BECOMING NORTHEAST BY EVENING.  WINDS AT
2000-3000 FEET AGL START SOUTHWEST 25-35 KNOTS AND BECOME NORTHEAST
25 TO 30 KNOTS BY EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS LINGER THROUGH THE DAY AT
OR ABOVE 5000 FEET.  THIS MAY CREATE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT
TIMES...DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE VERTICAL IS LIKELY AND SPEED SHEAR
POSSIBLY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH BEST CHANCE
OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SLOPES OF THE WORCESTER HILLS.
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH BOTH DAYS.

WEDNESDAY... VFR WITH A NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
HOWEVER...AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
WATERS BUT ITS UNCERTAIN IF IT WILL BECOME DENSE.

SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  EXCELLENT MIXING OVER THE
LAND WILL GENERATE NEAR SHORE SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  IN ADDITION...SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL
GENERATE 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS.  THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT HEADLINES POSTED FOR ALL WATERS.  AREAS OF FOG MAY BE LOCALLY
DENSE IN THE MORNING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...SHOULD IMPROVE SOMEWHAT
BY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NEAR SHORE SMALL
CRAFT WIND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH SATURDAY EVENING.  HOWEVER...5 FOOT
SWELL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS.  SOME FOG POSSIBLE SAT
NIGHT...BUT PROBABLY NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS TONIGHT GIVEN SOME MORE
BOUNDARY LAYER WIND.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ON SOME OF THE WATERS. A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE EASTERN WATERS DURING THE DAY. THE FRONT
CROSSES THE SOUTHERN WATERS SUNDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECTING SOUTHWEST
GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO NORTHEAST
AND EAST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS FROM THAT
DIRECTION. SEAS LINGER AROUND 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ESPECIALLY ON
THE EASTERN WATERS. NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KNOTS EACH DAY.
SEAS 5 TO 8 FEET ON THE EASTERN MASS WATERS...AND 3 TO 5 FEET ON THE
SOUTHERN WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED...MAINLY ON THE
EASTERN WATERS. DIMINISHING NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS. SEAS OF 5 FEET
MAY LINGER ON THE EASTERN WATERS.


&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 10 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/WTB
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...FRANK/WTB
MARINE...FRANK/WTB



000
FXUS61 KBOX 292034
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
433 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A MAINLY DRY...WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID AFTERNOON IS IN STORE FOR
MOST THE REGION FOR SATURDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY...THEN STALL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY...AND A PERIOD OF RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
DRY WEATHER FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

A VERY TRICKY FORECAST TONIGHT IN REGARDS TO LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL.
LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SITTING JUST OFF THE EASTERN MA COAST MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...SOLAR HEATING HAS KEPT THEM BASICALLY JUST
OFFSHORE...EXCEPT AFFECTING PORTIONS OF COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND
THE OUTER-CAPE FOR A TIME.  GIVEN EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING...DO NOT EXPECT THESE LOW CLOUDS TO
REALLY MOVE INLAND.  ITS POSSIBLE THAT THEY MAKE IT ONSHORE FOR AN
HOUR OR TWO TOWARDS SUNSET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH SHORE WITH
SURFACE WINDS TURNING SOUTH BUT PROBABLY SHORT LIVED.

OTHERWISE...THE FOCUS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH
COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS SITTING
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND AS WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY AND BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLS...SHOULD SEE THEM ADVECT NORTHWARD.  LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW FAR
NORTH THESE LOW CLOUDS ADVECT...BUT PROBABLY AFFECT THE SOUTH COAST
AND PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE MA PIKE.  SOME FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED
AND CAN/T RULE OUT A PERIOD OF DENSE FOG ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THAT IS LOW.

OTHERWISE...A DRY NIGHT OTHER THAN PERHAPS A BIT OF MIST TOWARD
DAYBREAK ALONG WITH THE FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.
LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

***A WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID SATURDAY AFTERNOON IS ON TAP INLAND
  FROM THE SOUTH COAST***

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL ALLOW A WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIRMASS TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY.  LOW
CLOUDS THAT FORM SOUTH OF MA PIKE SHOULD SCOUR OUT BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IF NOT EARLIER FOR MOST OF THE REGION.  HOWEVER...LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES MAY LINGER ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH
COAST/CAPE/ISLANDS.

OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S TO
THE NORTHWEST OF A BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE LINE.  THE WARMEST OF THOSE
READINGS SHOULD BE FOUND IN THE MERRIMACK VALLEY.  TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF A BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE LINE...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL HOLD
HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.  IN FACT...SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH GOOD MIXING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY A DRY DAY ACROSS THE
REGION.  BEST FORCING/INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS WILL BE WELL TO OUR
NORTHWEST WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  JUST A LOW RISK OF A SPOT
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS
NORTHWEST MA.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY APPROACHING OUR REGION FROM THE WEST.  A
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN A MILD NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPS
ONLY DROPPING TO BETWEEN 60 AND 65.  DRY WEATHER SHOULD DOMINATE THE
FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...BUT WE MAY SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.  THIS IS
RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL JET AND A BURST OF INSTABILITY.  ACTIVITY WILL
PROBABLY BE HIT AND MISS THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY...WITH THE BULK OF
IT TO THE NORTHWEST OF I-95.  BULK OF LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  ENOUGH WIND IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MAY PREVENT A LOT OF FOG FROM DEVELOPING...BUT STILL CAN NOT
RULE OUT SOME DEVELOPING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

OVERALL MODEL TRENDS HAVE NOT DEVIATED MUCH FROM PRIOR RUNS.
CONFIDENCE GROWING IN THE TIMING OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT AS IT
CROSSES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS WEEKEND. MID-LEVEL
ATLANTIC RIDGE SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL
PERMIT A BRIEF MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE BY DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. AS TYPICAL WITH THESE FEATURES...AT THAT TIME RANGE IN
THE FORECAST...THERE ARE PLENTY OF TIMING DIFFERENCES YET TO BE
RESOLVED.

LEANED TOWARD THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION TO SMOOTH OVER THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY...THIS CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR A
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. PRECIPITABLE WATER DURING THIS TIME
REMAINS 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES...SO COULD ALSO SEE SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. AT THIS POINT...THINKING A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH NEAR
OR SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL TEND TO
SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES FARTHER SOUTH. THIS WILL LOWER THE RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AS MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO NORTHERN MA SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT STILL COULD SEE SPOTTY CONVECTION ACROSS N CT/RI/SE
MA. SHOWERS LOOK TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE ROUTE 2 AREA BY AROUND
SUNRISE MONDAY...BUT TIMING IS STILL IN QUESTION.

MONDAY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS MOVING THIS FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODEL
SUITE. LOOKS LIKE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LINGERS INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN CT/RI/SOUTHEASTERN MA. WINDS DO
START TO SHIFT AROUND TO N-NE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MA...SO
THIS WILL CUT BACK ON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS COOLER AIR MOVES
IN. FOR NOW...CONTINUED TO TAPER OFF RAINFALL BY MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS MOST AREAS...BUT DO LINGER IT ALONG THE S COAST THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN WHAT IT HAS
BEEN RECENTLY...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S. SOME LOCATIONS ALONG
THE EAST COAST MAY NOT EVEN BREAK 60 WITH ONSHORE WINDS.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD FINALLY PUSH OFF THE SOUTH COAST
BY AROUND MIDDAY TUESDAY AT THE LATEST. NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE
AS A HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. HAVE CONTINUED A DRY AND SEASONABLE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  LOW CLOUDS SITTING JUST OFF
THE EASTERN MA COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN MA
COAST TURN SOUTH SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING...SO THAT SHOULD LIMIT LOW
CLOUDS COMING IN FROM THE EAST.  THEREFORE...EVEN IF THEY DO GET
INTO BOSTON THEY WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND MAY REMAIN JUST OFF THE
COAST.  THE BIGGER CONCERN THEN TURNS TO LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES THAT
MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ESPECIALLY CAPE/ISLANDS.
AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES SOUTH OF
PIKE PROBABLY SCOUR OUT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT
CAPE/ISLANDS WHERE THEY MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON.  DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A SPOT
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHWEST MA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR TO MARGINAL MVFR
CIGS EXCEPT FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WHERE IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL
BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH THE HIGHER RISK DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

KBOS TERMINAL...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF EARLY THIS EVENING. IFR CIGS
SITTING JUST EAST OF THE TERMINAL AT LATE AFTERNOON.  GIVEN WINDS
TURNING SOUTH SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS EVENING...THEY MAY NEVER MAKE IT
INTO THE TERMINAL.  HOWEVER...ITS POSSIBLE THAT THEY DO FOR AN HOUR
OR TWO SINCE THEIR SO CLOSE AND WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR.

KBDL TERMINAL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  MVFR TO IFR CIGS
MAY DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT UNCERTAIN.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING
THE DAY WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS SHIFT TO N-NE
DURING THE DAY...THEN BECOME NE SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY GUST UP
TO AROUND 20 KT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. SHOWERS LINGER SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MONDAY...SCT SHOWERS LINGERING WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM N-S DURING THE DAY...EXCEPT ALONG
THE S COAST...WHERE SOME SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER. MAY SEE
BRIEF MVFR IN ANY SHOWERS. NE WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 ACROSS OUTER
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. MAY SEE ISOLD SHOWERS EARLY TUE
ALONG S COAST BUT THOSE SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE. NE WIND GUSTS TO 25
KT STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
HOWEVER...AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
WATERS BUT ITS UNCERTAIN IF IT WILL BECOME DENSE.

SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  EXCELLENT MIXING OVER THE
LAND WILL GENERATE NEAR SHORE SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  IN ADDITION...SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL
GENERATE 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS.  THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT HEADLINES POSTED FOR ALL WATERS.  AREAS OF FOG MAY BE LOCALLY
DENSE IN THE MORNING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...SHOULD IMPROVE SOMEWHAT
BY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NEAR SHORE SMALL
CRAFT WIND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH SATURDAY EVENING.  HOWEVER...5 FOOT
SWELL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS.  SOME FOG POSSIBLE SAT
NIGHT...BUT PROBABLY NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS TONIGHT GIVEN SOME MORE
BOUNDARY LAYER WIND.


OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE WATERS. MAY SEE BRIEF
GUSTS TO 25 KT AS FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL
LIKELY STALL NEAR OR JUST S OF THE S COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS
SHIFT TO E-NE AS THIS FRONT PASSES. AREAS OF SHOWERS WITH SCT
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...EXPECTING MAINLY NE WINDS. GUSTS TO 25 KT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS AS THIS FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. SEAS
BUILD UP TO 6-8 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS TO E OF CAPE
COD...AND UP TO 5 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE
LINGERING SHOWERS DURING MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 10 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/WTB
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...FRANK/WTB
MARINE...FRANK/WTB



000
FXUS61 KBOX 292034
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
433 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A MAINLY DRY...WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID AFTERNOON IS IN STORE FOR
MOST THE REGION FOR SATURDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY...THEN STALL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY...AND A PERIOD OF RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
DRY WEATHER FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

A VERY TRICKY FORECAST TONIGHT IN REGARDS TO LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL.
LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SITTING JUST OFF THE EASTERN MA COAST MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...SOLAR HEATING HAS KEPT THEM BASICALLY JUST
OFFSHORE...EXCEPT AFFECTING PORTIONS OF COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND
THE OUTER-CAPE FOR A TIME.  GIVEN EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING...DO NOT EXPECT THESE LOW CLOUDS TO
REALLY MOVE INLAND.  ITS POSSIBLE THAT THEY MAKE IT ONSHORE FOR AN
HOUR OR TWO TOWARDS SUNSET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH SHORE WITH
SURFACE WINDS TURNING SOUTH BUT PROBABLY SHORT LIVED.

OTHERWISE...THE FOCUS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH
COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS SITTING
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND AS WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY AND BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLS...SHOULD SEE THEM ADVECT NORTHWARD.  LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW FAR
NORTH THESE LOW CLOUDS ADVECT...BUT PROBABLY AFFECT THE SOUTH COAST
AND PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE MA PIKE.  SOME FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED
AND CAN/T RULE OUT A PERIOD OF DENSE FOG ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THAT IS LOW.

OTHERWISE...A DRY NIGHT OTHER THAN PERHAPS A BIT OF MIST TOWARD
DAYBREAK ALONG WITH THE FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.
LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

***A WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID SATURDAY AFTERNOON IS ON TAP INLAND
  FROM THE SOUTH COAST***

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL ALLOW A WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIRMASS TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY.  LOW
CLOUDS THAT FORM SOUTH OF MA PIKE SHOULD SCOUR OUT BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IF NOT EARLIER FOR MOST OF THE REGION.  HOWEVER...LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES MAY LINGER ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH
COAST/CAPE/ISLANDS.

OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S TO
THE NORTHWEST OF A BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE LINE.  THE WARMEST OF THOSE
READINGS SHOULD BE FOUND IN THE MERRIMACK VALLEY.  TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF A BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE LINE...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL HOLD
HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.  IN FACT...SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH GOOD MIXING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY A DRY DAY ACROSS THE
REGION.  BEST FORCING/INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS WILL BE WELL TO OUR
NORTHWEST WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  JUST A LOW RISK OF A SPOT
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS
NORTHWEST MA.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY APPROACHING OUR REGION FROM THE WEST.  A
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN A MILD NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPS
ONLY DROPPING TO BETWEEN 60 AND 65.  DRY WEATHER SHOULD DOMINATE THE
FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...BUT WE MAY SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.  THIS IS
RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL JET AND A BURST OF INSTABILITY.  ACTIVITY WILL
PROBABLY BE HIT AND MISS THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY...WITH THE BULK OF
IT TO THE NORTHWEST OF I-95.  BULK OF LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  ENOUGH WIND IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MAY PREVENT A LOT OF FOG FROM DEVELOPING...BUT STILL CAN NOT
RULE OUT SOME DEVELOPING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

OVERALL MODEL TRENDS HAVE NOT DEVIATED MUCH FROM PRIOR RUNS.
CONFIDENCE GROWING IN THE TIMING OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT AS IT
CROSSES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS WEEKEND. MID-LEVEL
ATLANTIC RIDGE SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL
PERMIT A BRIEF MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE BY DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. AS TYPICAL WITH THESE FEATURES...AT THAT TIME RANGE IN
THE FORECAST...THERE ARE PLENTY OF TIMING DIFFERENCES YET TO BE
RESOLVED.

LEANED TOWARD THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION TO SMOOTH OVER THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY...THIS CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR A
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. PRECIPITABLE WATER DURING THIS TIME
REMAINS 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES...SO COULD ALSO SEE SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. AT THIS POINT...THINKING A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH NEAR
OR SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL TEND TO
SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES FARTHER SOUTH. THIS WILL LOWER THE RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AS MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO NORTHERN MA SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT STILL COULD SEE SPOTTY CONVECTION ACROSS N CT/RI/SE
MA. SHOWERS LOOK TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE ROUTE 2 AREA BY AROUND
SUNRISE MONDAY...BUT TIMING IS STILL IN QUESTION.

MONDAY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS MOVING THIS FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODEL
SUITE. LOOKS LIKE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LINGERS INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN CT/RI/SOUTHEASTERN MA. WINDS DO
START TO SHIFT AROUND TO N-NE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MA...SO
THIS WILL CUT BACK ON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS COOLER AIR MOVES
IN. FOR NOW...CONTINUED TO TAPER OFF RAINFALL BY MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS MOST AREAS...BUT DO LINGER IT ALONG THE S COAST THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN WHAT IT HAS
BEEN RECENTLY...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S. SOME LOCATIONS ALONG
THE EAST COAST MAY NOT EVEN BREAK 60 WITH ONSHORE WINDS.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD FINALLY PUSH OFF THE SOUTH COAST
BY AROUND MIDDAY TUESDAY AT THE LATEST. NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE
AS A HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. HAVE CONTINUED A DRY AND SEASONABLE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  LOW CLOUDS SITTING JUST OFF
THE EASTERN MA COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN MA
COAST TURN SOUTH SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING...SO THAT SHOULD LIMIT LOW
CLOUDS COMING IN FROM THE EAST.  THEREFORE...EVEN IF THEY DO GET
INTO BOSTON THEY WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND MAY REMAIN JUST OFF THE
COAST.  THE BIGGER CONCERN THEN TURNS TO LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES THAT
MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ESPECIALLY CAPE/ISLANDS.
AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES SOUTH OF
PIKE PROBABLY SCOUR OUT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT
CAPE/ISLANDS WHERE THEY MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON.  DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A SPOT
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHWEST MA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR TO MARGINAL MVFR
CIGS EXCEPT FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WHERE IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL
BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH THE HIGHER RISK DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

KBOS TERMINAL...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF EARLY THIS EVENING. IFR CIGS
SITTING JUST EAST OF THE TERMINAL AT LATE AFTERNOON.  GIVEN WINDS
TURNING SOUTH SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS EVENING...THEY MAY NEVER MAKE IT
INTO THE TERMINAL.  HOWEVER...ITS POSSIBLE THAT THEY DO FOR AN HOUR
OR TWO SINCE THEIR SO CLOSE AND WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR.

KBDL TERMINAL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  MVFR TO IFR CIGS
MAY DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT UNCERTAIN.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING
THE DAY WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS SHIFT TO N-NE
DURING THE DAY...THEN BECOME NE SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY GUST UP
TO AROUND 20 KT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. SHOWERS LINGER SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MONDAY...SCT SHOWERS LINGERING WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM N-S DURING THE DAY...EXCEPT ALONG
THE S COAST...WHERE SOME SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER. MAY SEE
BRIEF MVFR IN ANY SHOWERS. NE WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 ACROSS OUTER
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. MAY SEE ISOLD SHOWERS EARLY TUE
ALONG S COAST BUT THOSE SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE. NE WIND GUSTS TO 25
KT STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
HOWEVER...AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
WATERS BUT ITS UNCERTAIN IF IT WILL BECOME DENSE.

SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  EXCELLENT MIXING OVER THE
LAND WILL GENERATE NEAR SHORE SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  IN ADDITION...SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL
GENERATE 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS.  THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT HEADLINES POSTED FOR ALL WATERS.  AREAS OF FOG MAY BE LOCALLY
DENSE IN THE MORNING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...SHOULD IMPROVE SOMEWHAT
BY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NEAR SHORE SMALL
CRAFT WIND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH SATURDAY EVENING.  HOWEVER...5 FOOT
SWELL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS.  SOME FOG POSSIBLE SAT
NIGHT...BUT PROBABLY NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS TONIGHT GIVEN SOME MORE
BOUNDARY LAYER WIND.


OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE WATERS. MAY SEE BRIEF
GUSTS TO 25 KT AS FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL
LIKELY STALL NEAR OR JUST S OF THE S COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS
SHIFT TO E-NE AS THIS FRONT PASSES. AREAS OF SHOWERS WITH SCT
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...EXPECTING MAINLY NE WINDS. GUSTS TO 25 KT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS AS THIS FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. SEAS
BUILD UP TO 6-8 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS TO E OF CAPE
COD...AND UP TO 5 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE
LINGERING SHOWERS DURING MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 10 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/WTB
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...FRANK/WTB
MARINE...FRANK/WTB



000
FXUS61 KBOX 292034
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
433 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A MAINLY DRY...WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID AFTERNOON IS IN STORE FOR
MOST THE REGION FOR SATURDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY...THEN STALL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY...AND A PERIOD OF RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
DRY WEATHER FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

A VERY TRICKY FORECAST TONIGHT IN REGARDS TO LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL.
LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SITTING JUST OFF THE EASTERN MA COAST MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...SOLAR HEATING HAS KEPT THEM BASICALLY JUST
OFFSHORE...EXCEPT AFFECTING PORTIONS OF COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND
THE OUTER-CAPE FOR A TIME.  GIVEN EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING...DO NOT EXPECT THESE LOW CLOUDS TO
REALLY MOVE INLAND.  ITS POSSIBLE THAT THEY MAKE IT ONSHORE FOR AN
HOUR OR TWO TOWARDS SUNSET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH SHORE WITH
SURFACE WINDS TURNING SOUTH BUT PROBABLY SHORT LIVED.

OTHERWISE...THE FOCUS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH
COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS SITTING
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND AS WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY AND BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLS...SHOULD SEE THEM ADVECT NORTHWARD.  LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW FAR
NORTH THESE LOW CLOUDS ADVECT...BUT PROBABLY AFFECT THE SOUTH COAST
AND PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE MA PIKE.  SOME FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED
AND CAN/T RULE OUT A PERIOD OF DENSE FOG ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THAT IS LOW.

OTHERWISE...A DRY NIGHT OTHER THAN PERHAPS A BIT OF MIST TOWARD
DAYBREAK ALONG WITH THE FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.
LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

***A WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID SATURDAY AFTERNOON IS ON TAP INLAND
  FROM THE SOUTH COAST***

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL ALLOW A WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIRMASS TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY.  LOW
CLOUDS THAT FORM SOUTH OF MA PIKE SHOULD SCOUR OUT BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IF NOT EARLIER FOR MOST OF THE REGION.  HOWEVER...LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES MAY LINGER ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH
COAST/CAPE/ISLANDS.

OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S TO
THE NORTHWEST OF A BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE LINE.  THE WARMEST OF THOSE
READINGS SHOULD BE FOUND IN THE MERRIMACK VALLEY.  TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF A BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE LINE...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL HOLD
HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.  IN FACT...SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH GOOD MIXING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY A DRY DAY ACROSS THE
REGION.  BEST FORCING/INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS WILL BE WELL TO OUR
NORTHWEST WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  JUST A LOW RISK OF A SPOT
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS
NORTHWEST MA.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY APPROACHING OUR REGION FROM THE WEST.  A
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN A MILD NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPS
ONLY DROPPING TO BETWEEN 60 AND 65.  DRY WEATHER SHOULD DOMINATE THE
FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...BUT WE MAY SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.  THIS IS
RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL JET AND A BURST OF INSTABILITY.  ACTIVITY WILL
PROBABLY BE HIT AND MISS THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY...WITH THE BULK OF
IT TO THE NORTHWEST OF I-95.  BULK OF LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  ENOUGH WIND IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MAY PREVENT A LOT OF FOG FROM DEVELOPING...BUT STILL CAN NOT
RULE OUT SOME DEVELOPING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

OVERALL MODEL TRENDS HAVE NOT DEVIATED MUCH FROM PRIOR RUNS.
CONFIDENCE GROWING IN THE TIMING OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT AS IT
CROSSES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS WEEKEND. MID-LEVEL
ATLANTIC RIDGE SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL
PERMIT A BRIEF MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE BY DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. AS TYPICAL WITH THESE FEATURES...AT THAT TIME RANGE IN
THE FORECAST...THERE ARE PLENTY OF TIMING DIFFERENCES YET TO BE
RESOLVED.

LEANED TOWARD THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION TO SMOOTH OVER THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY...THIS CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR A
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. PRECIPITABLE WATER DURING THIS TIME
REMAINS 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES...SO COULD ALSO SEE SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. AT THIS POINT...THINKING A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH NEAR
OR SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL TEND TO
SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES FARTHER SOUTH. THIS WILL LOWER THE RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AS MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO NORTHERN MA SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT STILL COULD SEE SPOTTY CONVECTION ACROSS N CT/RI/SE
MA. SHOWERS LOOK TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE ROUTE 2 AREA BY AROUND
SUNRISE MONDAY...BUT TIMING IS STILL IN QUESTION.

MONDAY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS MOVING THIS FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODEL
SUITE. LOOKS LIKE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LINGERS INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN CT/RI/SOUTHEASTERN MA. WINDS DO
START TO SHIFT AROUND TO N-NE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MA...SO
THIS WILL CUT BACK ON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS COOLER AIR MOVES
IN. FOR NOW...CONTINUED TO TAPER OFF RAINFALL BY MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS MOST AREAS...BUT DO LINGER IT ALONG THE S COAST THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN WHAT IT HAS
BEEN RECENTLY...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S. SOME LOCATIONS ALONG
THE EAST COAST MAY NOT EVEN BREAK 60 WITH ONSHORE WINDS.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD FINALLY PUSH OFF THE SOUTH COAST
BY AROUND MIDDAY TUESDAY AT THE LATEST. NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE
AS A HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. HAVE CONTINUED A DRY AND SEASONABLE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  LOW CLOUDS SITTING JUST OFF
THE EASTERN MA COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN MA
COAST TURN SOUTH SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING...SO THAT SHOULD LIMIT LOW
CLOUDS COMING IN FROM THE EAST.  THEREFORE...EVEN IF THEY DO GET
INTO BOSTON THEY WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND MAY REMAIN JUST OFF THE
COAST.  THE BIGGER CONCERN THEN TURNS TO LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES THAT
MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ESPECIALLY CAPE/ISLANDS.
AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES SOUTH OF
PIKE PROBABLY SCOUR OUT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT
CAPE/ISLANDS WHERE THEY MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON.  DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A SPOT
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHWEST MA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR TO MARGINAL MVFR
CIGS EXCEPT FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WHERE IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL
BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH THE HIGHER RISK DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

KBOS TERMINAL...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF EARLY THIS EVENING. IFR CIGS
SITTING JUST EAST OF THE TERMINAL AT LATE AFTERNOON.  GIVEN WINDS
TURNING SOUTH SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS EVENING...THEY MAY NEVER MAKE IT
INTO THE TERMINAL.  HOWEVER...ITS POSSIBLE THAT THEY DO FOR AN HOUR
OR TWO SINCE THEIR SO CLOSE AND WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR.

KBDL TERMINAL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  MVFR TO IFR CIGS
MAY DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT UNCERTAIN.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING
THE DAY WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS SHIFT TO N-NE
DURING THE DAY...THEN BECOME NE SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY GUST UP
TO AROUND 20 KT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. SHOWERS LINGER SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MONDAY...SCT SHOWERS LINGERING WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM N-S DURING THE DAY...EXCEPT ALONG
THE S COAST...WHERE SOME SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER. MAY SEE
BRIEF MVFR IN ANY SHOWERS. NE WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 ACROSS OUTER
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. MAY SEE ISOLD SHOWERS EARLY TUE
ALONG S COAST BUT THOSE SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE. NE WIND GUSTS TO 25
KT STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
HOWEVER...AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
WATERS BUT ITS UNCERTAIN IF IT WILL BECOME DENSE.

SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  EXCELLENT MIXING OVER THE
LAND WILL GENERATE NEAR SHORE SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  IN ADDITION...SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL
GENERATE 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS.  THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT HEADLINES POSTED FOR ALL WATERS.  AREAS OF FOG MAY BE LOCALLY
DENSE IN THE MORNING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...SHOULD IMPROVE SOMEWHAT
BY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NEAR SHORE SMALL
CRAFT WIND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH SATURDAY EVENING.  HOWEVER...5 FOOT
SWELL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS.  SOME FOG POSSIBLE SAT
NIGHT...BUT PROBABLY NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS TONIGHT GIVEN SOME MORE
BOUNDARY LAYER WIND.


OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE WATERS. MAY SEE BRIEF
GUSTS TO 25 KT AS FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL
LIKELY STALL NEAR OR JUST S OF THE S COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS
SHIFT TO E-NE AS THIS FRONT PASSES. AREAS OF SHOWERS WITH SCT
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...EXPECTING MAINLY NE WINDS. GUSTS TO 25 KT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS AS THIS FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. SEAS
BUILD UP TO 6-8 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS TO E OF CAPE
COD...AND UP TO 5 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE
LINGERING SHOWERS DURING MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 10 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/WTB
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...FRANK/WTB
MARINE...FRANK/WTB



000
FXUS61 KBOX 292034
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
433 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A MAINLY DRY...WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID AFTERNOON IS IN STORE FOR
MOST THE REGION FOR SATURDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY...THEN STALL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY...AND A PERIOD OF RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
DRY WEATHER FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

A VERY TRICKY FORECAST TONIGHT IN REGARDS TO LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL.
LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SITTING JUST OFF THE EASTERN MA COAST MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...SOLAR HEATING HAS KEPT THEM BASICALLY JUST
OFFSHORE...EXCEPT AFFECTING PORTIONS OF COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND
THE OUTER-CAPE FOR A TIME.  GIVEN EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING...DO NOT EXPECT THESE LOW CLOUDS TO
REALLY MOVE INLAND.  ITS POSSIBLE THAT THEY MAKE IT ONSHORE FOR AN
HOUR OR TWO TOWARDS SUNSET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH SHORE WITH
SURFACE WINDS TURNING SOUTH BUT PROBABLY SHORT LIVED.

OTHERWISE...THE FOCUS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH
COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS SITTING
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND AS WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY AND BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLS...SHOULD SEE THEM ADVECT NORTHWARD.  LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW FAR
NORTH THESE LOW CLOUDS ADVECT...BUT PROBABLY AFFECT THE SOUTH COAST
AND PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE MA PIKE.  SOME FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED
AND CAN/T RULE OUT A PERIOD OF DENSE FOG ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THAT IS LOW.

OTHERWISE...A DRY NIGHT OTHER THAN PERHAPS A BIT OF MIST TOWARD
DAYBREAK ALONG WITH THE FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.
LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

***A WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID SATURDAY AFTERNOON IS ON TAP INLAND
  FROM THE SOUTH COAST***

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST WILL ALLOW A WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIRMASS TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY.  LOW
CLOUDS THAT FORM SOUTH OF MA PIKE SHOULD SCOUR OUT BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IF NOT EARLIER FOR MOST OF THE REGION.  HOWEVER...LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES MAY LINGER ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH
COAST/CAPE/ISLANDS.

OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S TO
THE NORTHWEST OF A BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE LINE.  THE WARMEST OF THOSE
READINGS SHOULD BE FOUND IN THE MERRIMACK VALLEY.  TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF A BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE LINE...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL HOLD
HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.  IN FACT...SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH GOOD MIXING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY A DRY DAY ACROSS THE
REGION.  BEST FORCING/INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS WILL BE WELL TO OUR
NORTHWEST WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  JUST A LOW RISK OF A SPOT
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS
NORTHWEST MA.

SATURDAY NIGHT...

A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY APPROACHING OUR REGION FROM THE WEST.  A
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN A MILD NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPS
ONLY DROPPING TO BETWEEN 60 AND 65.  DRY WEATHER SHOULD DOMINATE THE
FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...BUT WE MAY SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.  THIS IS
RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL JET AND A BURST OF INSTABILITY.  ACTIVITY WILL
PROBABLY BE HIT AND MISS THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY...WITH THE BULK OF
IT TO THE NORTHWEST OF I-95.  BULK OF LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.  ENOUGH WIND IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MAY PREVENT A LOT OF FOG FROM DEVELOPING...BUT STILL CAN NOT
RULE OUT SOME DEVELOPING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

OVERALL MODEL TRENDS HAVE NOT DEVIATED MUCH FROM PRIOR RUNS.
CONFIDENCE GROWING IN THE TIMING OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT AS IT
CROSSES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS WEEKEND. MID-LEVEL
ATLANTIC RIDGE SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL
PERMIT A BRIEF MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE BY DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. AS TYPICAL WITH THESE FEATURES...AT THAT TIME RANGE IN
THE FORECAST...THERE ARE PLENTY OF TIMING DIFFERENCES YET TO BE
RESOLVED.

LEANED TOWARD THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION TO SMOOTH OVER THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY...THIS CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR A
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. PRECIPITABLE WATER DURING THIS TIME
REMAINS 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES...SO COULD ALSO SEE SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. AT THIS POINT...THINKING A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH NEAR
OR SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL TEND TO
SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES FARTHER SOUTH. THIS WILL LOWER THE RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AS MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO NORTHERN MA SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT STILL COULD SEE SPOTTY CONVECTION ACROSS N CT/RI/SE
MA. SHOWERS LOOK TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE ROUTE 2 AREA BY AROUND
SUNRISE MONDAY...BUT TIMING IS STILL IN QUESTION.

MONDAY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS MOVING THIS FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODEL
SUITE. LOOKS LIKE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LINGERS INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN CT/RI/SOUTHEASTERN MA. WINDS DO
START TO SHIFT AROUND TO N-NE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MA...SO
THIS WILL CUT BACK ON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS COOLER AIR MOVES
IN. FOR NOW...CONTINUED TO TAPER OFF RAINFALL BY MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS MOST AREAS...BUT DO LINGER IT ALONG THE S COAST THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN WHAT IT HAS
BEEN RECENTLY...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S. SOME LOCATIONS ALONG
THE EAST COAST MAY NOT EVEN BREAK 60 WITH ONSHORE WINDS.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD FINALLY PUSH OFF THE SOUTH COAST
BY AROUND MIDDAY TUESDAY AT THE LATEST. NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE
AS A HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. HAVE CONTINUED A DRY AND SEASONABLE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  LOW CLOUDS SITTING JUST OFF
THE EASTERN MA COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN MA
COAST TURN SOUTH SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING...SO THAT SHOULD LIMIT LOW
CLOUDS COMING IN FROM THE EAST.  THEREFORE...EVEN IF THEY DO GET
INTO BOSTON THEY WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND MAY REMAIN JUST OFF THE
COAST.  THE BIGGER CONCERN THEN TURNS TO LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES THAT
MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ESPECIALLY CAPE/ISLANDS.
AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES SOUTH OF
PIKE PROBABLY SCOUR OUT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT
CAPE/ISLANDS WHERE THEY MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON.  DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A SPOT
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHWEST MA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR TO MARGINAL MVFR
CIGS EXCEPT FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WHERE IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL
BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH THE HIGHER RISK DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

KBOS TERMINAL...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF EARLY THIS EVENING. IFR CIGS
SITTING JUST EAST OF THE TERMINAL AT LATE AFTERNOON.  GIVEN WINDS
TURNING SOUTH SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS EVENING...THEY MAY NEVER MAKE IT
INTO THE TERMINAL.  HOWEVER...ITS POSSIBLE THAT THEY DO FOR AN HOUR
OR TWO SINCE THEIR SO CLOSE AND WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR.

KBDL TERMINAL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  MVFR TO IFR CIGS
MAY DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT UNCERTAIN.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING
THE DAY WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS SHIFT TO N-NE
DURING THE DAY...THEN BECOME NE SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY GUST UP
TO AROUND 20 KT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. SHOWERS LINGER SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MONDAY...SCT SHOWERS LINGERING WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM N-S DURING THE DAY...EXCEPT ALONG
THE S COAST...WHERE SOME SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER. MAY SEE
BRIEF MVFR IN ANY SHOWERS. NE WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 ACROSS OUTER
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. MAY SEE ISOLD SHOWERS EARLY TUE
ALONG S COAST BUT THOSE SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE. NE WIND GUSTS TO 25
KT STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
HOWEVER...AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
WATERS BUT ITS UNCERTAIN IF IT WILL BECOME DENSE.

SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  EXCELLENT MIXING OVER THE
LAND WILL GENERATE NEAR SHORE SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  IN ADDITION...SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL
GENERATE 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS.  THEREFORE...SMALL
CRAFT HEADLINES POSTED FOR ALL WATERS.  AREAS OF FOG MAY BE LOCALLY
DENSE IN THE MORNING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...SHOULD IMPROVE SOMEWHAT
BY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NEAR SHORE SMALL
CRAFT WIND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH SATURDAY EVENING.  HOWEVER...5 FOOT
SWELL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTER-WATERS.  SOME FOG POSSIBLE SAT
NIGHT...BUT PROBABLY NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS TONIGHT GIVEN SOME MORE
BOUNDARY LAYER WIND.


OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE WATERS. MAY SEE BRIEF
GUSTS TO 25 KT AS FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL
LIKELY STALL NEAR OR JUST S OF THE S COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS
SHIFT TO E-NE AS THIS FRONT PASSES. AREAS OF SHOWERS WITH SCT
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...EXPECTING MAINLY NE WINDS. GUSTS TO 25 KT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS AS THIS FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. SEAS
BUILD UP TO 6-8 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS TO E OF CAPE
COD...AND UP TO 5 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE
LINGERING SHOWERS DURING MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 10 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/WTB
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...FRANK/WTB
MARINE...FRANK/WTB



000
FXUS61 KBOX 292001
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
401 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND BEAUTIFUL WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON...
EXCEPT ALONG PORTIONS OF THE VERY IMMEDIATE EASTERN MA COAST WHERE
SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY AFFECT THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...THEN STALL SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND DURING THE EARLY WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDER SUNDAY...AND A CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
205 PM UPDATE...

PLENTY OF DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AT MID AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL MA/RI BUT
THERE WAS STILL SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE.  WE ARE ALSO WATCHING
AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS TRYING TO WORK ONTO THE PLYMOUTH
COAST AT MID AFTERNOON OFF THE OCEAN.  THEY ARE BEING OFFSET
SOME BY DIURNAL HEATING...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY BECAUSE THEY
MAY AFFECT OTHER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN MA COAST TOWARD EVENING.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THAT SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

OTHERWISE...AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD PEAK BETWEEN 80 AND 85 INLAND
FROM THE COAST.  ALONG THE COAST...SEA BREEZES AND SOME LOW CLOUDS
WILL HOLD AFTERNOON TEMPS BETWEEN 65 AND 75.  COOLEST READINGS ALONG
THE THE PLYMOUTH COUNTY MA COAST...GIVEN LOWER CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER MILD AND MUGGY
NIGHT FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WAA WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WHICH
WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER...ESP FOR THE SOUTH COASTAL REGIONS.
CANNOT RULE OUT ANOTHER ROUND OF MARINE FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE TEMPS
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WITH DEWPOINTS ALSO IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S.

TOMORROW...

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. BEST DYNAMICS AND FORCING
WILL BE WELL TO THE WEST OF THE REGION...HOWEVER BECAUSE WE ARE IN A
VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE BULK OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS
WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S...COOLER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

BIG PICTURE...

CHANGEABLE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK. UPPER RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE
SUNDAY. UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY CROSSES THE NORTHEAST USA EARLY WEEK.
UPPER RIDGE FROM THE WESTERN USA THEN SHIFTS EAST OVER THE EASTERN
USA LATE WEEK.

DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS REGARDING TIMING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
EARLY WEEK WITH THE GGEM THE FASTEST AND ECMWF SLOWEST. WE USED A
MODEL CONSENSUS IN TIMING.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... COLD FRONT EITHER OVER OR JUST NORTH OF
NORTHERN MASS SUNDAY MORNING WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL BE 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES WHICH IS AROUND 2 STD DEV ABOVE
NORMAL. TOTALS OF 47-49 AND SHOWALTERS OF 0 TO -2. ALL OF THIS
SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER
THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS ON TIMING THE FROPA BUT ALL MOVE IT
SOUTH OF THE COAST BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE FRONT IS THEN ALIGNED WITH
THE UPPER FLOW AND STALLS. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
IS FORECAST TO GENERATE A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT WHICH CROSSES THE
APPALACHIANS MONDAY AND PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY. THIS
ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA SHOULD BRING A COOL
NORTHEAST FLOW TO THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE A
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ABOVE 5OOO FEET AGL AND SUPPIES LIFT AND
MOISTURE OVER THE TOP. WE WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS MONDAY
DIMINISHING TO CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES
EAST.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SURFACE AND ALOFT
BRINGING DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THE DEMISE OF THE
NORTHEAST MARINE FLOW...MIXING SHOULD RETURN WITH HEIGHTS REACHING
AT LEAST 875 MB WEDNESDAY AND AT LEAST 850 MB THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER EACH DAY SUGGEST MAX SFC
TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S WEDNESDAY...70S TO NEAR 80
THURSDAY...AND 75-85 FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE EXCEPT LOW CONFIDENCE ON
EASTERN MA COAST.  MAINLY VFR...BUT WE ARE WATCHING AN AREA OF LOW
CLOUDS JUST EAST OF BOSTON HARBOR AND ONTO THE PLYMOUTH COUNTY
COAST.  LOW CONFIDENCE...BUT A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP TOWARD
EVENING ON THE NORTH SHORE AND INTO BOSTON HARBOR.

TONIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.  WINDS ALONG EASTERN MA COAST TURN
SOUTHWEST SO THAT SHOULD LIMIT LOW CLOUDS COMING IN FROM THE EAST.
IN FACT...IF THEY DO GET IN FOR A TIME THIS EVENING THEY MAY SCOUR
OUT.  BIGGER CONCERN THEN TURNS TO LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES THAT MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ESPECIALLY CAPE/ISLANDS.
AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES SOUTH OF
PIKE PROBABLY SCOUR OUT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT
CAPE/ISLANDS WHERE THEY MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON.  DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A SPOT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS NORTHWEST MA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR TO MARGINAL MVFR
CIGS EXCEPT FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WHERE IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL
BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH THE HIGHER RISK DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

KBOS TERMINAL...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. IFR CIGS SITTING JUST OFF
BOSTON HARBOR AT MID AFTERNOON.  THEY MAY WORK INTO BOSTON HARBOR
FOR A TIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE.  IF
THEY DO...PROBABLY SCOUR OUT LATER IN THE EVENING AS WINDS TURN
SOUTHWEST.

KBDL TERMINAL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY... COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. VFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO START...BECOMING NORTHEAST BY EVENING.  WINDS AT
2000-3000 FEET AGL START SOUTHWEST 25-35 KNOTS AND BECOME NORTHEAST
25 TO 30 KNOTS BY EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS LINGER THROUGH THE DAY AT
OR ABOVE 5000 FEET.  THIS MAY CREATE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT
TIMES...DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE VERTICAL IS LIKELY AND SPEED SHEAR
POSSIBLY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH BEST CHANCE
OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SLOPES OF THE WORCESTER HILLS.
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH BOTH DAYS.

WEDNESDAY... VFR WITH A NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SOME
STRATUS/FOG IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ON THE SRN WATERS TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
WATERS AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND. SW WINDS MAY GUST
NEAR 25-30 KTS. MAY NEED NEAR SHORE SCA. OTHERWISE SEAS WILL BE
CLOSE TO 5FT AS SOUTHERLY SWELL INCREASES.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ON SOME OF THE WATERS. A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE EASTERN WATERS DURING THE DAY. THE FRONT
CROSSES THE SOUTHERN WATERS SUNDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECTING SOUTHWEST
GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO NORTHEAST
AND EAST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS FROM THAT
DIRECTION. SEAS LINGER AROUND 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ESPECIALLY ON
THE EASTERN WATERS. NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KNOTS EACH DAY.
SEAS 5 TO 8 FEET ON THE EASTERN MASS WATERS...AND 3 TO 5 FEET ON THE
SOUTHERN WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED...MAINLY ON THE
EASTERN WATERS. DIMINISHING NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS. SEAS OF 5 FEET
MAY LINGER ON THE EASTERN WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 10 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/FRANK
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291810
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
210 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND BEAUTIFUL WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON...
EXCEPT ALONG PORTIONS OF THE VERY IMMEDIATE EASTERN MA COAST WHERE
SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY AFFECT THE REGION. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING
A GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY LINGER NEAR OUR AREA INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

205 PM UPDATE...

PLENTY OF DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AT MID AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL MA/RI BUT
THERE WAS STILL SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE.  WE ARE ALSO WATCHING
AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS TRYING TO WORK ONTO THE PLYMOUTH
COAST AT MID AFTERNOON OFF THE OCEAN.  THEY ARE BEING OFFSET
SOME BY DIURNAL HEATING...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY BECAUSE THEY
MAY AFFECT OTHER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN MA COAST TOWARD EVENING.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THAT SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

OTHERWISE...AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD PEAK BETWEEN 80 AND 85 INLAND
FROM THE COAST.  ALONG THE COAST...SEA BREEZES AND SOME LOW CLOUDS
WILL HOLD AFTERNOON TEMPS BETWEEN 65 AND 75.  COOLEST READINGS ALONG
THE THE PLYMOUTH COUNTY MA COAST...GIVEN LOWER CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER MILD AND MUGGY
NIGHT FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WAA WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WHICH
WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER...ESP FOR THE SOUTH COASTAL REGIONS.
CANNOT RULE OUT ANOTHER ROUND OF MARINE FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE TEMPS
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WITH DEWPOINTS ALSO IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S.

TOMORROW...

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. BEST DYNAMICS AND FORCING
WILL BE WELL TO THE WEST OF THE REGION...HOWEVER BECAUSE WE ARE IN A
VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE BULK OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS
WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S...COOLER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

OVERALL MODEL TRENDS HAVE NOT DEVIATED MUCH FROM PRIOR RUNS.
CONFIDENCE GROWING IN THE TIMING OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT AS IT
CROSSES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS WEEKEND. MID-LEVEL
ATLANTIC RIDGE SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL
PERMIT A BRIEF MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE BY DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. AS TYPICAL WITH THESE FEATURES...AT THAT TIME RANGE IN
THE FORECAST...THERE ARE PLENTY OF TIMING DIFFERENCES YET TO BE
RESOLVED.

LEANED TOWARD THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION TO SMOOTH OVER THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY...THIS CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR A
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. PRECIPITABLE WATER DURING THIS TIME
REMAINS 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES...SO COULD ALSO SEE SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. AT THIS POINT...THINKING A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH NEAR
OR SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL TEND TO
SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES FARTHER SOUTH. THIS WILL LOWER THE RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AS MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO NORTHERN MA SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT STILL COULD SEE SPOTTY CONVECTION ACROSS N CT/RI/SE
MA. SHOWERS LOOK TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE ROUTE 2 AREA BY AROUND
SUNRISE MONDAY...BUT TIMING IS STILL IN QUESTION.

MONDAY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS MOVING THIS FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODEL
SUITE. LOOKS LIKE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LINGERS INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN CT/RI/SOUTHEASTERN MA. WINDS DO
START TO SHIFT AROUND TO N-NE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MA...SO
THIS WILL CUT BACK ON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS COOLER AIR MOVES
IN. FOR NOW...CONTINUED TO TAPER OFF RAINFALL BY MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS MOST AREAS...BUT DO LINGER IT ALONG THE S COAST THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN WHAT IT HAS
BEEN RECENTLY...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S. SOME LOCATIONS ALONG
THE EAST COAST MAY NOT EVEN BREAK 60 WITH ONSHORE WINDS.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD FINALLY PUSH OFF THE SOUTH COAST
BY AROUND MIDDAY TUESDAY AT THE LATEST. NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE
AS A HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. HAVE CONTINUED A DRY AND SEASONABLE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE EXCEPT LOW CONFIDENCE ON
EASTERN MA COAST.  MAINLY VFR...BUT WE ARE WATCHING AN AREA OF LOW
CLOUDS JUST EAST OF BOSTON HARBOR AND ONTO THE PLYMOUTH COUNTY
COAST.  LOW CONFIDENCE...BUT A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP TOWARD
EVENING ON THE NORTH SHORE AND INTO BOSTON HARBOR.

TONIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.  WINDS ALONG EASTERN MA COAST TURN
SOUTHWEST SO THAT SHOULD LIMIT LOW CLOUDS COMING IN FROM THE EAST.
IN FACT...IF THEY DO GET IN FOR A TIME THIS EVENING THEY MAY SCOUR
OUT.  BIGGER CONCERN THEN TURNS TO LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES THAT MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ESPECIALLY CAPE/ISLANDS.
AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES SOUTH OF
PIKE PROBABLY SCOUR OUT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT
CAPE/ISLANDS WHERE THEY MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON.  DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A SPOT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS NORTHWEST MA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR TO MARGINAL MVFR
CIGS EXCEPT FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WHERE IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL
BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH THE HIGHER RISK DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

KBOS TERMINAL...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. IFR CIGS SITTING JUST OFF
BOSTON HARBOR AT MID AFTERNOON.  THEY MAY WORK INTO BOSTON HARBOR
FOR A TIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE.  IF
THEY DO...PROBABLY SCOUR OUT LATER IN THE EVENING AS WINDS TURN
SOUTHWEST.

KBDL TERMINAL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING
THE DAY WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS SHIFT TO N-NE
DURING THE DAY...THEN BECOME NE SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY GUST UP
TO AROUND 20 KT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. SHOWERS LINGER SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MONDAY...SCT SHOWERS LINGERING WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM N-S DURING THE DAY...EXCEPT ALONG
THE S COAST...WHERE SOME SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER. MAY SEE
BRIEF MVFR IN ANY SHOWERS. NE WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 ACROSS OUTER
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. MAY SEE ISOLD SHOWERS EARLY TUE
ALONG S COAST BUT THOSE SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE. NE WIND GUSTS TO 25
KT STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SOME
STRATUS/FOG IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ON THE SRN WATERS TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
WATERS AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND. SW WINDS MAY GUST
NEAR 25-30 KTS. MAY NEED NEAR SHORE SCA. OTHERWISE SEAS WILL BE
CLOSE TO 5FT AS SOUTHERLY SWELL INCREASES.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE WATERS. MAY SEE BRIEF
GUSTS TO 25 KT AS FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL
LIKELY STALL NEAR OR JUST S OF THE S COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS
SHIFT TO E-NE AS THIS FRONT PASSES. AREAS OF SHOWERS WITH SCT
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...EXPECTING MAINLY NE WINDS. GUSTS TO 25 KT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS AS THIS FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. SEAS
BUILD UP TO 6-8 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS TO E OF CAPE
COD...AND UP TO 5 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE
LINGERING SHOWERS DURING MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...FRANK/BELK
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291810
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
210 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND BEAUTIFUL WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON...
EXCEPT ALONG PORTIONS OF THE VERY IMMEDIATE EASTERN MA COAST WHERE
SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY AFFECT THE REGION. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING
A GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY LINGER NEAR OUR AREA INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

205 PM UPDATE...

PLENTY OF DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AT MID AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL MA/RI BUT
THERE WAS STILL SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE.  WE ARE ALSO WATCHING
AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS TRYING TO WORK ONTO THE PLYMOUTH
COAST AT MID AFTERNOON OFF THE OCEAN.  THEY ARE BEING OFFSET
SOME BY DIURNAL HEATING...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY BECAUSE THEY
MAY AFFECT OTHER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN MA COAST TOWARD EVENING.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THAT SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

OTHERWISE...AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD PEAK BETWEEN 80 AND 85 INLAND
FROM THE COAST.  ALONG THE COAST...SEA BREEZES AND SOME LOW CLOUDS
WILL HOLD AFTERNOON TEMPS BETWEEN 65 AND 75.  COOLEST READINGS ALONG
THE THE PLYMOUTH COUNTY MA COAST...GIVEN LOWER CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER MILD AND MUGGY
NIGHT FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WAA WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WHICH
WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER...ESP FOR THE SOUTH COASTAL REGIONS.
CANNOT RULE OUT ANOTHER ROUND OF MARINE FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE TEMPS
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WITH DEWPOINTS ALSO IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S.

TOMORROW...

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. BEST DYNAMICS AND FORCING
WILL BE WELL TO THE WEST OF THE REGION...HOWEVER BECAUSE WE ARE IN A
VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE BULK OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS
WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S...COOLER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

OVERALL MODEL TRENDS HAVE NOT DEVIATED MUCH FROM PRIOR RUNS.
CONFIDENCE GROWING IN THE TIMING OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT AS IT
CROSSES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS WEEKEND. MID-LEVEL
ATLANTIC RIDGE SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL
PERMIT A BRIEF MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE BY DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. AS TYPICAL WITH THESE FEATURES...AT THAT TIME RANGE IN
THE FORECAST...THERE ARE PLENTY OF TIMING DIFFERENCES YET TO BE
RESOLVED.

LEANED TOWARD THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION TO SMOOTH OVER THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY...THIS CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR A
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. PRECIPITABLE WATER DURING THIS TIME
REMAINS 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES...SO COULD ALSO SEE SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. AT THIS POINT...THINKING A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH NEAR
OR SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL TEND TO
SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES FARTHER SOUTH. THIS WILL LOWER THE RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AS MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO NORTHERN MA SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT STILL COULD SEE SPOTTY CONVECTION ACROSS N CT/RI/SE
MA. SHOWERS LOOK TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE ROUTE 2 AREA BY AROUND
SUNRISE MONDAY...BUT TIMING IS STILL IN QUESTION.

MONDAY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS MOVING THIS FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODEL
SUITE. LOOKS LIKE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LINGERS INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN CT/RI/SOUTHEASTERN MA. WINDS DO
START TO SHIFT AROUND TO N-NE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MA...SO
THIS WILL CUT BACK ON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS COOLER AIR MOVES
IN. FOR NOW...CONTINUED TO TAPER OFF RAINFALL BY MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS MOST AREAS...BUT DO LINGER IT ALONG THE S COAST THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN WHAT IT HAS
BEEN RECENTLY...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S. SOME LOCATIONS ALONG
THE EAST COAST MAY NOT EVEN BREAK 60 WITH ONSHORE WINDS.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD FINALLY PUSH OFF THE SOUTH COAST
BY AROUND MIDDAY TUESDAY AT THE LATEST. NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE
AS A HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. HAVE CONTINUED A DRY AND SEASONABLE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE EXCEPT LOW CONFIDENCE ON
EASTERN MA COAST.  MAINLY VFR...BUT WE ARE WATCHING AN AREA OF LOW
CLOUDS JUST EAST OF BOSTON HARBOR AND ONTO THE PLYMOUTH COUNTY
COAST.  LOW CONFIDENCE...BUT A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP TOWARD
EVENING ON THE NORTH SHORE AND INTO BOSTON HARBOR.

TONIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.  WINDS ALONG EASTERN MA COAST TURN
SOUTHWEST SO THAT SHOULD LIMIT LOW CLOUDS COMING IN FROM THE EAST.
IN FACT...IF THEY DO GET IN FOR A TIME THIS EVENING THEY MAY SCOUR
OUT.  BIGGER CONCERN THEN TURNS TO LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES THAT MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ESPECIALLY CAPE/ISLANDS.
AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES SOUTH OF
PIKE PROBABLY SCOUR OUT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT
CAPE/ISLANDS WHERE THEY MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON.  DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A SPOT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS NORTHWEST MA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR TO MARGINAL MVFR
CIGS EXCEPT FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WHERE IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL
BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH THE HIGHER RISK DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

KBOS TERMINAL...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. IFR CIGS SITTING JUST OFF
BOSTON HARBOR AT MID AFTERNOON.  THEY MAY WORK INTO BOSTON HARBOR
FOR A TIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE.  IF
THEY DO...PROBABLY SCOUR OUT LATER IN THE EVENING AS WINDS TURN
SOUTHWEST.

KBDL TERMINAL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING
THE DAY WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS SHIFT TO N-NE
DURING THE DAY...THEN BECOME NE SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY GUST UP
TO AROUND 20 KT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. SHOWERS LINGER SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MONDAY...SCT SHOWERS LINGERING WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM N-S DURING THE DAY...EXCEPT ALONG
THE S COAST...WHERE SOME SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER. MAY SEE
BRIEF MVFR IN ANY SHOWERS. NE WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 ACROSS OUTER
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. MAY SEE ISOLD SHOWERS EARLY TUE
ALONG S COAST BUT THOSE SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE. NE WIND GUSTS TO 25
KT STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SOME
STRATUS/FOG IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ON THE SRN WATERS TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
WATERS AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND. SW WINDS MAY GUST
NEAR 25-30 KTS. MAY NEED NEAR SHORE SCA. OTHERWISE SEAS WILL BE
CLOSE TO 5FT AS SOUTHERLY SWELL INCREASES.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE WATERS. MAY SEE BRIEF
GUSTS TO 25 KT AS FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL
LIKELY STALL NEAR OR JUST S OF THE S COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS
SHIFT TO E-NE AS THIS FRONT PASSES. AREAS OF SHOWERS WITH SCT
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...EXPECTING MAINLY NE WINDS. GUSTS TO 25 KT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS AS THIS FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. SEAS
BUILD UP TO 6-8 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS TO E OF CAPE
COD...AND UP TO 5 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE
LINGERING SHOWERS DURING MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...FRANK/BELK
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 291810
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
210 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND BEAUTIFUL WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON...
EXCEPT ALONG PORTIONS OF THE VERY IMMEDIATE EASTERN MA COAST WHERE
SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY AFFECT THE REGION. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING
A GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY LINGER NEAR OUR AREA INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

205 PM UPDATE...

PLENTY OF DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AT MID AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL MA/RI BUT
THERE WAS STILL SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE.  WE ARE ALSO WATCHING
AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS TRYING TO WORK ONTO THE PLYMOUTH
COAST AT MID AFTERNOON OFF THE OCEAN.  THEY ARE BEING OFFSET
SOME BY DIURNAL HEATING...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY BECAUSE THEY
MAY AFFECT OTHER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN MA COAST TOWARD EVENING.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THAT SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

OTHERWISE...AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD PEAK BETWEEN 80 AND 85 INLAND
FROM THE COAST.  ALONG THE COAST...SEA BREEZES AND SOME LOW CLOUDS
WILL HOLD AFTERNOON TEMPS BETWEEN 65 AND 75.  COOLEST READINGS ALONG
THE THE PLYMOUTH COUNTY MA COAST...GIVEN LOWER CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER MILD AND MUGGY
NIGHT FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WAA WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WHICH
WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER...ESP FOR THE SOUTH COASTAL REGIONS.
CANNOT RULE OUT ANOTHER ROUND OF MARINE FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE TEMPS
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WITH DEWPOINTS ALSO IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S.

TOMORROW...

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. BEST DYNAMICS AND FORCING
WILL BE WELL TO THE WEST OF THE REGION...HOWEVER BECAUSE WE ARE IN A
VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE BULK OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS
WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S...COOLER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

OVERALL MODEL TRENDS HAVE NOT DEVIATED MUCH FROM PRIOR RUNS.
CONFIDENCE GROWING IN THE TIMING OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT AS IT
CROSSES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS WEEKEND. MID-LEVEL
ATLANTIC RIDGE SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL
PERMIT A BRIEF MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE BY DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. AS TYPICAL WITH THESE FEATURES...AT THAT TIME RANGE IN
THE FORECAST...THERE ARE PLENTY OF TIMING DIFFERENCES YET TO BE
RESOLVED.

LEANED TOWARD THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION TO SMOOTH OVER THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY...THIS CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR A
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. PRECIPITABLE WATER DURING THIS TIME
REMAINS 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES...SO COULD ALSO SEE SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. AT THIS POINT...THINKING A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH NEAR
OR SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL TEND TO
SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES FARTHER SOUTH. THIS WILL LOWER THE RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AS MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO NORTHERN MA SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT STILL COULD SEE SPOTTY CONVECTION ACROSS N CT/RI/SE
MA. SHOWERS LOOK TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE ROUTE 2 AREA BY AROUND
SUNRISE MONDAY...BUT TIMING IS STILL IN QUESTION.

MONDAY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS MOVING THIS FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODEL
SUITE. LOOKS LIKE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LINGERS INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN CT/RI/SOUTHEASTERN MA. WINDS DO
START TO SHIFT AROUND TO N-NE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MA...SO
THIS WILL CUT BACK ON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS COOLER AIR MOVES
IN. FOR NOW...CONTINUED TO TAPER OFF RAINFALL BY MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS MOST AREAS...BUT DO LINGER IT ALONG THE S COAST THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN WHAT IT HAS
BEEN RECENTLY...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S. SOME LOCATIONS ALONG
THE EAST COAST MAY NOT EVEN BREAK 60 WITH ONSHORE WINDS.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD FINALLY PUSH OFF THE SOUTH COAST
BY AROUND MIDDAY TUESDAY AT THE LATEST. NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE
AS A HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. HAVE CONTINUED A DRY AND SEASONABLE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE EXCEPT LOW CONFIDENCE ON
EASTERN MA COAST.  MAINLY VFR...BUT WE ARE WATCHING AN AREA OF LOW
CLOUDS JUST EAST OF BOSTON HARBOR AND ONTO THE PLYMOUTH COUNTY
COAST.  LOW CONFIDENCE...BUT A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP TOWARD
EVENING ON THE NORTH SHORE AND INTO BOSTON HARBOR.

TONIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.  WINDS ALONG EASTERN MA COAST TURN
SOUTHWEST SO THAT SHOULD LIMIT LOW CLOUDS COMING IN FROM THE EAST.
IN FACT...IF THEY DO GET IN FOR A TIME THIS EVENING THEY MAY SCOUR
OUT.  BIGGER CONCERN THEN TURNS TO LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES THAT MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ESPECIALLY CAPE/ISLANDS.
AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES SOUTH OF
PIKE PROBABLY SCOUR OUT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT
CAPE/ISLANDS WHERE THEY MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON.  DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A SPOT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS NORTHWEST MA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR TO MARGINAL MVFR
CIGS EXCEPT FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WHERE IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL
BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH THE HIGHER RISK DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

KBOS TERMINAL...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. IFR CIGS SITTING JUST OFF
BOSTON HARBOR AT MID AFTERNOON.  THEY MAY WORK INTO BOSTON HARBOR
FOR A TIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE.  IF
THEY DO...PROBABLY SCOUR OUT LATER IN THE EVENING AS WINDS TURN
SOUTHWEST.

KBDL TERMINAL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING
THE DAY WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS SHIFT TO N-NE
DURING THE DAY...THEN BECOME NE SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY GUST UP
TO AROUND 20 KT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. SHOWERS LINGER SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MONDAY...SCT SHOWERS LINGERING WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM N-S DURING THE DAY...EXCEPT ALONG
THE S COAST...WHERE SOME SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER. MAY SEE
BRIEF MVFR IN ANY SHOWERS. NE WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 ACROSS OUTER
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. MAY SEE ISOLD SHOWERS EARLY TUE
ALONG S COAST BUT THOSE SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE. NE WIND GUSTS TO 25
KT STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SOME
STRATUS/FOG IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ON THE SRN WATERS TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
WATERS AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND. SW WINDS MAY GUST
NEAR 25-30 KTS. MAY NEED NEAR SHORE SCA. OTHERWISE SEAS WILL BE
CLOSE TO 5FT AS SOUTHERLY SWELL INCREASES.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE WATERS. MAY SEE BRIEF
GUSTS TO 25 KT AS FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL
LIKELY STALL NEAR OR JUST S OF THE S COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS
SHIFT TO E-NE AS THIS FRONT PASSES. AREAS OF SHOWERS WITH SCT
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...EXPECTING MAINLY NE WINDS. GUSTS TO 25 KT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS AS THIS FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. SEAS
BUILD UP TO 6-8 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS TO E OF CAPE
COD...AND UP TO 5 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE
LINGERING SHOWERS DURING MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...FRANK/BELK
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291810
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
210 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND BEAUTIFUL WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON...
EXCEPT ALONG PORTIONS OF THE VERY IMMEDIATE EASTERN MA COAST WHERE
SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY AFFECT THE REGION. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING
A GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY LINGER NEAR OUR AREA INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

205 PM UPDATE...

PLENTY OF DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AT MID AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL MA/RI BUT
THERE WAS STILL SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE.  WE ARE ALSO WATCHING
AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS TRYING TO WORK ONTO THE PLYMOUTH
COAST AT MID AFTERNOON OFF THE OCEAN.  THEY ARE BEING OFFSET
SOME BY DIURNAL HEATING...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY BECAUSE THEY
MAY AFFECT OTHER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN MA COAST TOWARD EVENING.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THAT SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

OTHERWISE...AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD PEAK BETWEEN 80 AND 85 INLAND
FROM THE COAST.  ALONG THE COAST...SEA BREEZES AND SOME LOW CLOUDS
WILL HOLD AFTERNOON TEMPS BETWEEN 65 AND 75.  COOLEST READINGS ALONG
THE THE PLYMOUTH COUNTY MA COAST...GIVEN LOWER CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER MILD AND MUGGY
NIGHT FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WAA WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WHICH
WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER...ESP FOR THE SOUTH COASTAL REGIONS.
CANNOT RULE OUT ANOTHER ROUND OF MARINE FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE TEMPS
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WITH DEWPOINTS ALSO IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S.

TOMORROW...

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. BEST DYNAMICS AND FORCING
WILL BE WELL TO THE WEST OF THE REGION...HOWEVER BECAUSE WE ARE IN A
VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE BULK OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS
WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S...COOLER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

OVERALL MODEL TRENDS HAVE NOT DEVIATED MUCH FROM PRIOR RUNS.
CONFIDENCE GROWING IN THE TIMING OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT AS IT
CROSSES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS WEEKEND. MID-LEVEL
ATLANTIC RIDGE SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL
PERMIT A BRIEF MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE BY DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. AS TYPICAL WITH THESE FEATURES...AT THAT TIME RANGE IN
THE FORECAST...THERE ARE PLENTY OF TIMING DIFFERENCES YET TO BE
RESOLVED.

LEANED TOWARD THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION TO SMOOTH OVER THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY...THIS CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR A
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. PRECIPITABLE WATER DURING THIS TIME
REMAINS 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES...SO COULD ALSO SEE SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. AT THIS POINT...THINKING A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH NEAR
OR SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL TEND TO
SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES FARTHER SOUTH. THIS WILL LOWER THE RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AS MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO NORTHERN MA SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT STILL COULD SEE SPOTTY CONVECTION ACROSS N CT/RI/SE
MA. SHOWERS LOOK TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE ROUTE 2 AREA BY AROUND
SUNRISE MONDAY...BUT TIMING IS STILL IN QUESTION.

MONDAY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS MOVING THIS FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODEL
SUITE. LOOKS LIKE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LINGERS INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN CT/RI/SOUTHEASTERN MA. WINDS DO
START TO SHIFT AROUND TO N-NE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MA...SO
THIS WILL CUT BACK ON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS COOLER AIR MOVES
IN. FOR NOW...CONTINUED TO TAPER OFF RAINFALL BY MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS MOST AREAS...BUT DO LINGER IT ALONG THE S COAST THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN WHAT IT HAS
BEEN RECENTLY...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S. SOME LOCATIONS ALONG
THE EAST COAST MAY NOT EVEN BREAK 60 WITH ONSHORE WINDS.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD FINALLY PUSH OFF THE SOUTH COAST
BY AROUND MIDDAY TUESDAY AT THE LATEST. NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE
AS A HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. HAVE CONTINUED A DRY AND SEASONABLE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE EXCEPT LOW CONFIDENCE ON
EASTERN MA COAST.  MAINLY VFR...BUT WE ARE WATCHING AN AREA OF LOW
CLOUDS JUST EAST OF BOSTON HARBOR AND ONTO THE PLYMOUTH COUNTY
COAST.  LOW CONFIDENCE...BUT A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP TOWARD
EVENING ON THE NORTH SHORE AND INTO BOSTON HARBOR.

TONIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.  WINDS ALONG EASTERN MA COAST TURN
SOUTHWEST SO THAT SHOULD LIMIT LOW CLOUDS COMING IN FROM THE EAST.
IN FACT...IF THEY DO GET IN FOR A TIME THIS EVENING THEY MAY SCOUR
OUT.  BIGGER CONCERN THEN TURNS TO LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES THAT MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ESPECIALLY CAPE/ISLANDS.
AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES SOUTH OF
PIKE PROBABLY SCOUR OUT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT
CAPE/ISLANDS WHERE THEY MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON.  DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A SPOT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS NORTHWEST MA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR TO MARGINAL MVFR
CIGS EXCEPT FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WHERE IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL
BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH THE HIGHER RISK DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

KBOS TERMINAL...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. IFR CIGS SITTING JUST OFF
BOSTON HARBOR AT MID AFTERNOON.  THEY MAY WORK INTO BOSTON HARBOR
FOR A TIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE.  IF
THEY DO...PROBABLY SCOUR OUT LATER IN THE EVENING AS WINDS TURN
SOUTHWEST.

KBDL TERMINAL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING
THE DAY WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS SHIFT TO N-NE
DURING THE DAY...THEN BECOME NE SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY GUST UP
TO AROUND 20 KT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. SHOWERS LINGER SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MONDAY...SCT SHOWERS LINGERING WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM N-S DURING THE DAY...EXCEPT ALONG
THE S COAST...WHERE SOME SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER. MAY SEE
BRIEF MVFR IN ANY SHOWERS. NE WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 ACROSS OUTER
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. MAY SEE ISOLD SHOWERS EARLY TUE
ALONG S COAST BUT THOSE SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE. NE WIND GUSTS TO 25
KT STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SOME
STRATUS/FOG IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ON THE SRN WATERS TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
WATERS AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND. SW WINDS MAY GUST
NEAR 25-30 KTS. MAY NEED NEAR SHORE SCA. OTHERWISE SEAS WILL BE
CLOSE TO 5FT AS SOUTHERLY SWELL INCREASES.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE WATERS. MAY SEE BRIEF
GUSTS TO 25 KT AS FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL
LIKELY STALL NEAR OR JUST S OF THE S COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS
SHIFT TO E-NE AS THIS FRONT PASSES. AREAS OF SHOWERS WITH SCT
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...EXPECTING MAINLY NE WINDS. GUSTS TO 25 KT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS AS THIS FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. SEAS
BUILD UP TO 6-8 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS TO E OF CAPE
COD...AND UP TO 5 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE
LINGERING SHOWERS DURING MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...FRANK/BELK
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291810
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
210 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND BEAUTIFUL WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON...
EXCEPT ALONG PORTIONS OF THE VERY IMMEDIATE EASTERN MA COAST WHERE
SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY AFFECT THE REGION. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING
A GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY LINGER NEAR OUR AREA INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

205 PM UPDATE...

PLENTY OF DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AT MID AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL MA/RI BUT
THERE WAS STILL SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE.  WE ARE ALSO WATCHING
AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS TRYING TO WORK ONTO THE PLYMOUTH
COAST AT MID AFTERNOON OFF THE OCEAN.  THEY ARE BEING OFFSET
SOME BY DIURNAL HEATING...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY BECAUSE THEY
MAY AFFECT OTHER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN MA COAST TOWARD EVENING.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THAT SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

OTHERWISE...AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD PEAK BETWEEN 80 AND 85 INLAND
FROM THE COAST.  ALONG THE COAST...SEA BREEZES AND SOME LOW CLOUDS
WILL HOLD AFTERNOON TEMPS BETWEEN 65 AND 75.  COOLEST READINGS ALONG
THE THE PLYMOUTH COUNTY MA COAST...GIVEN LOWER CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER MILD AND MUGGY
NIGHT FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WAA WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WHICH
WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER...ESP FOR THE SOUTH COASTAL REGIONS.
CANNOT RULE OUT ANOTHER ROUND OF MARINE FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE TEMPS
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WITH DEWPOINTS ALSO IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S.

TOMORROW...

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. BEST DYNAMICS AND FORCING
WILL BE WELL TO THE WEST OF THE REGION...HOWEVER BECAUSE WE ARE IN A
VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE BULK OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS
WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S...COOLER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

OVERALL MODEL TRENDS HAVE NOT DEVIATED MUCH FROM PRIOR RUNS.
CONFIDENCE GROWING IN THE TIMING OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT AS IT
CROSSES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS WEEKEND. MID-LEVEL
ATLANTIC RIDGE SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL
PERMIT A BRIEF MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE BY DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. AS TYPICAL WITH THESE FEATURES...AT THAT TIME RANGE IN
THE FORECAST...THERE ARE PLENTY OF TIMING DIFFERENCES YET TO BE
RESOLVED.

LEANED TOWARD THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION TO SMOOTH OVER THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY...THIS CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR A
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. PRECIPITABLE WATER DURING THIS TIME
REMAINS 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES...SO COULD ALSO SEE SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. AT THIS POINT...THINKING A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH NEAR
OR SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL TEND TO
SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES FARTHER SOUTH. THIS WILL LOWER THE RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AS MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO NORTHERN MA SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT STILL COULD SEE SPOTTY CONVECTION ACROSS N CT/RI/SE
MA. SHOWERS LOOK TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE ROUTE 2 AREA BY AROUND
SUNRISE MONDAY...BUT TIMING IS STILL IN QUESTION.

MONDAY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS MOVING THIS FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODEL
SUITE. LOOKS LIKE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LINGERS INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN CT/RI/SOUTHEASTERN MA. WINDS DO
START TO SHIFT AROUND TO N-NE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MA...SO
THIS WILL CUT BACK ON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS COOLER AIR MOVES
IN. FOR NOW...CONTINUED TO TAPER OFF RAINFALL BY MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS MOST AREAS...BUT DO LINGER IT ALONG THE S COAST THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN WHAT IT HAS
BEEN RECENTLY...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S. SOME LOCATIONS ALONG
THE EAST COAST MAY NOT EVEN BREAK 60 WITH ONSHORE WINDS.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD FINALLY PUSH OFF THE SOUTH COAST
BY AROUND MIDDAY TUESDAY AT THE LATEST. NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE
AS A HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. HAVE CONTINUED A DRY AND SEASONABLE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE EXCEPT LOW CONFIDENCE ON
EASTERN MA COAST.  MAINLY VFR...BUT WE ARE WATCHING AN AREA OF LOW
CLOUDS JUST EAST OF BOSTON HARBOR AND ONTO THE PLYMOUTH COUNTY
COAST.  LOW CONFIDENCE...BUT A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP TOWARD
EVENING ON THE NORTH SHORE AND INTO BOSTON HARBOR.

TONIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.  WINDS ALONG EASTERN MA COAST TURN
SOUTHWEST SO THAT SHOULD LIMIT LOW CLOUDS COMING IN FROM THE EAST.
IN FACT...IF THEY DO GET IN FOR A TIME THIS EVENING THEY MAY SCOUR
OUT.  BIGGER CONCERN THEN TURNS TO LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES THAT MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ESPECIALLY CAPE/ISLANDS.
AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES SOUTH OF
PIKE PROBABLY SCOUR OUT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT
CAPE/ISLANDS WHERE THEY MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON.  DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A SPOT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS NORTHWEST MA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR TO MARGINAL MVFR
CIGS EXCEPT FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WHERE IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL
BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH THE HIGHER RISK DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

KBOS TERMINAL...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. IFR CIGS SITTING JUST OFF
BOSTON HARBOR AT MID AFTERNOON.  THEY MAY WORK INTO BOSTON HARBOR
FOR A TIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE.  IF
THEY DO...PROBABLY SCOUR OUT LATER IN THE EVENING AS WINDS TURN
SOUTHWEST.

KBDL TERMINAL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING
THE DAY WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS SHIFT TO N-NE
DURING THE DAY...THEN BECOME NE SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY GUST UP
TO AROUND 20 KT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. SHOWERS LINGER SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MONDAY...SCT SHOWERS LINGERING WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM N-S DURING THE DAY...EXCEPT ALONG
THE S COAST...WHERE SOME SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER. MAY SEE
BRIEF MVFR IN ANY SHOWERS. NE WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 ACROSS OUTER
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. MAY SEE ISOLD SHOWERS EARLY TUE
ALONG S COAST BUT THOSE SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE. NE WIND GUSTS TO 25
KT STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SOME
STRATUS/FOG IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ON THE SRN WATERS TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
WATERS AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND. SW WINDS MAY GUST
NEAR 25-30 KTS. MAY NEED NEAR SHORE SCA. OTHERWISE SEAS WILL BE
CLOSE TO 5FT AS SOUTHERLY SWELL INCREASES.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE WATERS. MAY SEE BRIEF
GUSTS TO 25 KT AS FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL
LIKELY STALL NEAR OR JUST S OF THE S COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS
SHIFT TO E-NE AS THIS FRONT PASSES. AREAS OF SHOWERS WITH SCT
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...EXPECTING MAINLY NE WINDS. GUSTS TO 25 KT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS AS THIS FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. SEAS
BUILD UP TO 6-8 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS TO E OF CAPE
COD...AND UP TO 5 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE
LINGERING SHOWERS DURING MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...FRANK/BELK
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291810
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
210 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND BEAUTIFUL WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON...
EXCEPT ALONG PORTIONS OF THE VERY IMMEDIATE EASTERN MA COAST WHERE
SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY AFFECT THE REGION. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING
A GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY LINGER NEAR OUR AREA INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

205 PM UPDATE...

PLENTY OF DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AT MID AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL MA/RI BUT
THERE WAS STILL SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE.  WE ARE ALSO WATCHING
AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS TRYING TO WORK ONTO THE PLYMOUTH
COAST AT MID AFTERNOON OFF THE OCEAN.  THEY ARE BEING OFFSET
SOME BY DIURNAL HEATING...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY BECAUSE THEY
MAY AFFECT OTHER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN MA COAST TOWARD EVENING.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THAT SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

OTHERWISE...AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD PEAK BETWEEN 80 AND 85 INLAND
FROM THE COAST.  ALONG THE COAST...SEA BREEZES AND SOME LOW CLOUDS
WILL HOLD AFTERNOON TEMPS BETWEEN 65 AND 75.  COOLEST READINGS ALONG
THE THE PLYMOUTH COUNTY MA COAST...GIVEN LOWER CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER MILD AND MUGGY
NIGHT FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WAA WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WHICH
WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER...ESP FOR THE SOUTH COASTAL REGIONS.
CANNOT RULE OUT ANOTHER ROUND OF MARINE FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE TEMPS
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WITH DEWPOINTS ALSO IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S.

TOMORROW...

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. BEST DYNAMICS AND FORCING
WILL BE WELL TO THE WEST OF THE REGION...HOWEVER BECAUSE WE ARE IN A
VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE BULK OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS
WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S...COOLER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

OVERALL MODEL TRENDS HAVE NOT DEVIATED MUCH FROM PRIOR RUNS.
CONFIDENCE GROWING IN THE TIMING OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT AS IT
CROSSES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS WEEKEND. MID-LEVEL
ATLANTIC RIDGE SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL
PERMIT A BRIEF MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE BY DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. AS TYPICAL WITH THESE FEATURES...AT THAT TIME RANGE IN
THE FORECAST...THERE ARE PLENTY OF TIMING DIFFERENCES YET TO BE
RESOLVED.

LEANED TOWARD THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION TO SMOOTH OVER THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY...THIS CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR A
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. PRECIPITABLE WATER DURING THIS TIME
REMAINS 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES...SO COULD ALSO SEE SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. AT THIS POINT...THINKING A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH NEAR
OR SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL TEND TO
SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES FARTHER SOUTH. THIS WILL LOWER THE RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AS MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO NORTHERN MA SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT STILL COULD SEE SPOTTY CONVECTION ACROSS N CT/RI/SE
MA. SHOWERS LOOK TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE ROUTE 2 AREA BY AROUND
SUNRISE MONDAY...BUT TIMING IS STILL IN QUESTION.

MONDAY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS MOVING THIS FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODEL
SUITE. LOOKS LIKE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LINGERS INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN CT/RI/SOUTHEASTERN MA. WINDS DO
START TO SHIFT AROUND TO N-NE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MA...SO
THIS WILL CUT BACK ON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS COOLER AIR MOVES
IN. FOR NOW...CONTINUED TO TAPER OFF RAINFALL BY MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS MOST AREAS...BUT DO LINGER IT ALONG THE S COAST THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN WHAT IT HAS
BEEN RECENTLY...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S. SOME LOCATIONS ALONG
THE EAST COAST MAY NOT EVEN BREAK 60 WITH ONSHORE WINDS.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD FINALLY PUSH OFF THE SOUTH COAST
BY AROUND MIDDAY TUESDAY AT THE LATEST. NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE
AS A HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. HAVE CONTINUED A DRY AND SEASONABLE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE EXCEPT LOW CONFIDENCE ON
EASTERN MA COAST.  MAINLY VFR...BUT WE ARE WATCHING AN AREA OF LOW
CLOUDS JUST EAST OF BOSTON HARBOR AND ONTO THE PLYMOUTH COUNTY
COAST.  LOW CONFIDENCE...BUT A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP TOWARD
EVENING ON THE NORTH SHORE AND INTO BOSTON HARBOR.

TONIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE.  WINDS ALONG EASTERN MA COAST TURN
SOUTHWEST SO THAT SHOULD LIMIT LOW CLOUDS COMING IN FROM THE EAST.
IN FACT...IF THEY DO GET IN FOR A TIME THIS EVENING THEY MAY SCOUR
OUT.  BIGGER CONCERN THEN TURNS TO LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES THAT MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ESPECIALLY CAPE/ISLANDS.
AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES SOUTH OF
PIKE PROBABLY SCOUR OUT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT
CAPE/ISLANDS WHERE THEY MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON.  DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A SPOT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS NORTHWEST MA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR TO MARGINAL MVFR
CIGS EXCEPT FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WHERE IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL
BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH THE HIGHER RISK DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

KBOS TERMINAL...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. IFR CIGS SITTING JUST OFF
BOSTON HARBOR AT MID AFTERNOON.  THEY MAY WORK INTO BOSTON HARBOR
FOR A TIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE.  IF
THEY DO...PROBABLY SCOUR OUT LATER IN THE EVENING AS WINDS TURN
SOUTHWEST.

KBDL TERMINAL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING
THE DAY WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS SHIFT TO N-NE
DURING THE DAY...THEN BECOME NE SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY GUST UP
TO AROUND 20 KT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. SHOWERS LINGER SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MONDAY...SCT SHOWERS LINGERING WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM N-S DURING THE DAY...EXCEPT ALONG
THE S COAST...WHERE SOME SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER. MAY SEE
BRIEF MVFR IN ANY SHOWERS. NE WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 ACROSS OUTER
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. MAY SEE ISOLD SHOWERS EARLY TUE
ALONG S COAST BUT THOSE SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE. NE WIND GUSTS TO 25
KT STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SOME
STRATUS/FOG IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ON THE SRN WATERS TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
WATERS AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND. SW WINDS MAY GUST
NEAR 25-30 KTS. MAY NEED NEAR SHORE SCA. OTHERWISE SEAS WILL BE
CLOSE TO 5FT AS SOUTHERLY SWELL INCREASES.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE WATERS. MAY SEE BRIEF
GUSTS TO 25 KT AS FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL
LIKELY STALL NEAR OR JUST S OF THE S COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS
SHIFT TO E-NE AS THIS FRONT PASSES. AREAS OF SHOWERS WITH SCT
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...EXPECTING MAINLY NE WINDS. GUSTS TO 25 KT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS AS THIS FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. SEAS
BUILD UP TO 6-8 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS TO E OF CAPE
COD...AND UP TO 5 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE
LINGERING SHOWERS DURING MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...FRANK/BELK
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291400
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1000 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND BEAUTIFUL WEATHER TODAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING A GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY LINGER NEAR OUR AREA INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

***BEAUTIFUL DAY IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION***

1000 AM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WILL RESULT IN A BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY
TO SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON...BUT STILL
PARTIAL SUNSHINE EXPECTED.  HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH OR EXCEED 80
INLAND FROM THE COAST WITH SOME MIDDLE 80S EXPECTED ACROSS THE
DISTANT INTERIOR.  MEANWHILE...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR
SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP ON THE COAST...WHICH WHICH ACTUALLY HAVE
ALREADY STARTED IN SOME LOCALES.  HIGH TEMPS ALONG THE COAST WILL BE
HELD IN THE 70S.  IN FACT...READINGS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN MA
COAST INCLUDING BOSTON MAY FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER MILD AND MUGGY
NIGHT FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WAA WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WHICH
WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER...ESP FOR THE SOUTH COASTAL REGIONS.
CANNOT RULE OUT ANOTHER ROUND OF MARINE FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE TEMPS
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WITH DEWPOINTS ALSO IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S.

TOMORROW...

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. BEST DYNAMICS AND FORCING
WILL BE WELL TO THE WEST OF THE REGION...HOWEVER BECAUSE WE ARE IN A
VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE BULK OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS
WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S...COOLER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

OVERALL MODEL TRENDS HAVE NOT DEVIATED MUCH FROM PRIOR RUNS.
CONFIDENCE GROWING IN THE TIMING OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT AS IT
CROSSES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS WEEKEND. MID-LEVEL
ATLANTIC RIDGE SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL
PERMIT A BRIEF MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE BY DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. AS TYPICAL WITH THESE FEATURES...AT THAT TIME RANGE IN
THE FORECAST...THERE ARE PLENTY OF TIMING DIFFERENCES YET TO BE
RESOLVED.

LEANED TOWARD THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION TO SMOOTH OVER THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY...THIS CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR A
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. PRECIPITABLE WATER DURING THIS TIME
REMAINS 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES...SO COULD ALSO SEE SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. AT THIS POINT...THINKING A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH NEAR
OR SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL TEND TO
SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES FARTHER SOUTH. THIS WILL LOWER THE RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AS MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO NORTHERN MA SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT STILL COULD SEE SPOTTY CONVECTION ACROSS N CT/RI/SE
MA. SHOWERS LOOK TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE ROUTE 2 AREA BY AROUND
SUNRISE MONDAY...BUT TIMING IS STILL IN QUESTION.

MONDAY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS MOVING THIS FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODEL
SUITE. LOOKS LIKE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LINGERS INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN CT/RI/SOUTHEASTERN MA. WINDS DO
START TO SHIFT AROUND TO N-NE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MA...SO
THIS WILL CUT BACK ON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS COOLER AIR MOVES
IN. FOR NOW...CONTINUED TO TAPER OFF RAINFALL BY MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS MOST AREAS...BUT DO LINGER IT ALONG THE S COAST THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN WHAT IT HAS
BEEN RECENTLY...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S. SOME LOCATIONS ALONG
THE EAST COAST MAY NOT EVEN BREAK 60 WITH ONSHORE WINDS.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD FINALLY PUSH OFF THE SOUTH COAST
BY AROUND MIDDAY TUESDAY AT THE LATEST. NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE
AS A HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. HAVE CONTINUED A DRY AND SEASONABLE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR BUT SOME BRIEF
MARGINAL MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST MA INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON.  SEA BREEZES WERE ALREADY DEVELOPING ON THE EASTERN MA
COAST AND SHOULD OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR
CIGS COULD DEVELOP WITHIN -SHRA/-TSRA ACROSS CT VALLEY REGION.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  NORTHEAST SEA BREEZE WILL
COME EASTERLY BY AFTERNOON.  BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE
FOR A FEW HOURS FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING
THE DAY WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS SHIFT TO N-NE
DURING THE DAY...THEN BECOME NE SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY GUST UP
TO AROUND 20 KT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. SHOWERS LINGER SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MONDAY...SCT SHOWERS LINGERING WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM N-S DURING THE DAY...EXCEPT ALONG
THE S COAST...WHERE SOME SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER. MAY SEE
BRIEF MVFR IN ANY SHOWERS. NE WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 ACROSS OUTER
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. MAY SEE ISOLD SHOWERS EARLY TUE
ALONG S COAST BUT THOSE SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE. NE WIND GUSTS TO 25
KT STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SOME
STRATUS/FOG IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ON THE SRN WATERS TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
WATERS AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND. SW WINDS MAY GUST
NEAR 25-30 KTS. MAY NEED NEAR SHORE SCA. OTHERWISE SEAS WILL BE
CLOSE TO 5FT AS SOUTHERLY SWELL INCREASES.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE WATERS. MAY SEE BRIEF
GUSTS TO 25 KT AS FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL
LIKELY STALL NEAR OR JUST S OF THE S COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS
SHIFT TO E-NE AS THIS FRONT PASSES. AREAS OF SHOWERS WITH SCT
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...EXPECTING MAINLY NE WINDS. GUSTS TO 25 KT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS AS THIS FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. SEAS
BUILD UP TO 6-8 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS TO E OF CAPE
COD...AND UP TO 5 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE
LINGERING SHOWERS DURING MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...FRANK/BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291400
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1000 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND BEAUTIFUL WEATHER TODAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING A GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY LINGER NEAR OUR AREA INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

***BEAUTIFUL DAY IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION***

1000 AM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WILL RESULT IN A BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY
TO SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON...BUT STILL
PARTIAL SUNSHINE EXPECTED.  HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH OR EXCEED 80
INLAND FROM THE COAST WITH SOME MIDDLE 80S EXPECTED ACROSS THE
DISTANT INTERIOR.  MEANWHILE...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR
SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP ON THE COAST...WHICH WHICH ACTUALLY HAVE
ALREADY STARTED IN SOME LOCALES.  HIGH TEMPS ALONG THE COAST WILL BE
HELD IN THE 70S.  IN FACT...READINGS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN MA
COAST INCLUDING BOSTON MAY FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER MILD AND MUGGY
NIGHT FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WAA WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WHICH
WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER...ESP FOR THE SOUTH COASTAL REGIONS.
CANNOT RULE OUT ANOTHER ROUND OF MARINE FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE TEMPS
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WITH DEWPOINTS ALSO IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S.

TOMORROW...

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. BEST DYNAMICS AND FORCING
WILL BE WELL TO THE WEST OF THE REGION...HOWEVER BECAUSE WE ARE IN A
VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE BULK OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS
WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S...COOLER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

OVERALL MODEL TRENDS HAVE NOT DEVIATED MUCH FROM PRIOR RUNS.
CONFIDENCE GROWING IN THE TIMING OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT AS IT
CROSSES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS WEEKEND. MID-LEVEL
ATLANTIC RIDGE SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL
PERMIT A BRIEF MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE BY DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. AS TYPICAL WITH THESE FEATURES...AT THAT TIME RANGE IN
THE FORECAST...THERE ARE PLENTY OF TIMING DIFFERENCES YET TO BE
RESOLVED.

LEANED TOWARD THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION TO SMOOTH OVER THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY...THIS CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR A
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. PRECIPITABLE WATER DURING THIS TIME
REMAINS 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES...SO COULD ALSO SEE SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. AT THIS POINT...THINKING A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH NEAR
OR SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL TEND TO
SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES FARTHER SOUTH. THIS WILL LOWER THE RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AS MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO NORTHERN MA SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT STILL COULD SEE SPOTTY CONVECTION ACROSS N CT/RI/SE
MA. SHOWERS LOOK TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE ROUTE 2 AREA BY AROUND
SUNRISE MONDAY...BUT TIMING IS STILL IN QUESTION.

MONDAY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS MOVING THIS FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODEL
SUITE. LOOKS LIKE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LINGERS INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN CT/RI/SOUTHEASTERN MA. WINDS DO
START TO SHIFT AROUND TO N-NE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MA...SO
THIS WILL CUT BACK ON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS COOLER AIR MOVES
IN. FOR NOW...CONTINUED TO TAPER OFF RAINFALL BY MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS MOST AREAS...BUT DO LINGER IT ALONG THE S COAST THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN WHAT IT HAS
BEEN RECENTLY...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S. SOME LOCATIONS ALONG
THE EAST COAST MAY NOT EVEN BREAK 60 WITH ONSHORE WINDS.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD FINALLY PUSH OFF THE SOUTH COAST
BY AROUND MIDDAY TUESDAY AT THE LATEST. NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE
AS A HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. HAVE CONTINUED A DRY AND SEASONABLE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR BUT SOME BRIEF
MARGINAL MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST MA INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON.  SEA BREEZES WERE ALREADY DEVELOPING ON THE EASTERN MA
COAST AND SHOULD OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR
CIGS COULD DEVELOP WITHIN -SHRA/-TSRA ACROSS CT VALLEY REGION.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  NORTHEAST SEA BREEZE WILL
COME EASTERLY BY AFTERNOON.  BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE
FOR A FEW HOURS FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING
THE DAY WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS SHIFT TO N-NE
DURING THE DAY...THEN BECOME NE SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY GUST UP
TO AROUND 20 KT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. SHOWERS LINGER SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MONDAY...SCT SHOWERS LINGERING WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM N-S DURING THE DAY...EXCEPT ALONG
THE S COAST...WHERE SOME SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER. MAY SEE
BRIEF MVFR IN ANY SHOWERS. NE WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 ACROSS OUTER
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. MAY SEE ISOLD SHOWERS EARLY TUE
ALONG S COAST BUT THOSE SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE. NE WIND GUSTS TO 25
KT STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SOME
STRATUS/FOG IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ON THE SRN WATERS TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
WATERS AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND. SW WINDS MAY GUST
NEAR 25-30 KTS. MAY NEED NEAR SHORE SCA. OTHERWISE SEAS WILL BE
CLOSE TO 5FT AS SOUTHERLY SWELL INCREASES.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE WATERS. MAY SEE BRIEF
GUSTS TO 25 KT AS FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL
LIKELY STALL NEAR OR JUST S OF THE S COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS
SHIFT TO E-NE AS THIS FRONT PASSES. AREAS OF SHOWERS WITH SCT
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...EXPECTING MAINLY NE WINDS. GUSTS TO 25 KT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS AS THIS FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. SEAS
BUILD UP TO 6-8 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS TO E OF CAPE
COD...AND UP TO 5 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE
LINGERING SHOWERS DURING MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...FRANK/BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 291400
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1000 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND BEAUTIFUL WEATHER TODAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING A GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY LINGER NEAR OUR AREA INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

***BEAUTIFUL DAY IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION***

1000 AM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WILL RESULT IN A BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY
TO SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON...BUT STILL
PARTIAL SUNSHINE EXPECTED.  HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH OR EXCEED 80
INLAND FROM THE COAST WITH SOME MIDDLE 80S EXPECTED ACROSS THE
DISTANT INTERIOR.  MEANWHILE...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR
SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP ON THE COAST...WHICH WHICH ACTUALLY HAVE
ALREADY STARTED IN SOME LOCALES.  HIGH TEMPS ALONG THE COAST WILL BE
HELD IN THE 70S.  IN FACT...READINGS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN MA
COAST INCLUDING BOSTON MAY FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER MILD AND MUGGY
NIGHT FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WAA WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WHICH
WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER...ESP FOR THE SOUTH COASTAL REGIONS.
CANNOT RULE OUT ANOTHER ROUND OF MARINE FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE TEMPS
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WITH DEWPOINTS ALSO IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S.

TOMORROW...

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. BEST DYNAMICS AND FORCING
WILL BE WELL TO THE WEST OF THE REGION...HOWEVER BECAUSE WE ARE IN A
VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE BULK OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS
WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S...COOLER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

OVERALL MODEL TRENDS HAVE NOT DEVIATED MUCH FROM PRIOR RUNS.
CONFIDENCE GROWING IN THE TIMING OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT AS IT
CROSSES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS WEEKEND. MID-LEVEL
ATLANTIC RIDGE SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL
PERMIT A BRIEF MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE BY DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. AS TYPICAL WITH THESE FEATURES...AT THAT TIME RANGE IN
THE FORECAST...THERE ARE PLENTY OF TIMING DIFFERENCES YET TO BE
RESOLVED.

LEANED TOWARD THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION TO SMOOTH OVER THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY...THIS CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR A
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. PRECIPITABLE WATER DURING THIS TIME
REMAINS 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES...SO COULD ALSO SEE SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. AT THIS POINT...THINKING A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH NEAR
OR SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL TEND TO
SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES FARTHER SOUTH. THIS WILL LOWER THE RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AS MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO NORTHERN MA SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT STILL COULD SEE SPOTTY CONVECTION ACROSS N CT/RI/SE
MA. SHOWERS LOOK TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE ROUTE 2 AREA BY AROUND
SUNRISE MONDAY...BUT TIMING IS STILL IN QUESTION.

MONDAY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS MOVING THIS FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODEL
SUITE. LOOKS LIKE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LINGERS INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN CT/RI/SOUTHEASTERN MA. WINDS DO
START TO SHIFT AROUND TO N-NE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MA...SO
THIS WILL CUT BACK ON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS COOLER AIR MOVES
IN. FOR NOW...CONTINUED TO TAPER OFF RAINFALL BY MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS MOST AREAS...BUT DO LINGER IT ALONG THE S COAST THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN WHAT IT HAS
BEEN RECENTLY...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S. SOME LOCATIONS ALONG
THE EAST COAST MAY NOT EVEN BREAK 60 WITH ONSHORE WINDS.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD FINALLY PUSH OFF THE SOUTH COAST
BY AROUND MIDDAY TUESDAY AT THE LATEST. NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE
AS A HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. HAVE CONTINUED A DRY AND SEASONABLE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR BUT SOME BRIEF
MARGINAL MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST MA INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON.  SEA BREEZES WERE ALREADY DEVELOPING ON THE EASTERN MA
COAST AND SHOULD OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR
CIGS COULD DEVELOP WITHIN -SHRA/-TSRA ACROSS CT VALLEY REGION.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  NORTHEAST SEA BREEZE WILL
COME EASTERLY BY AFTERNOON.  BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE
FOR A FEW HOURS FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING
THE DAY WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS SHIFT TO N-NE
DURING THE DAY...THEN BECOME NE SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY GUST UP
TO AROUND 20 KT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. SHOWERS LINGER SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MONDAY...SCT SHOWERS LINGERING WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM N-S DURING THE DAY...EXCEPT ALONG
THE S COAST...WHERE SOME SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER. MAY SEE
BRIEF MVFR IN ANY SHOWERS. NE WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 ACROSS OUTER
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. MAY SEE ISOLD SHOWERS EARLY TUE
ALONG S COAST BUT THOSE SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE. NE WIND GUSTS TO 25
KT STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SOME
STRATUS/FOG IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ON THE SRN WATERS TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
WATERS AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND. SW WINDS MAY GUST
NEAR 25-30 KTS. MAY NEED NEAR SHORE SCA. OTHERWISE SEAS WILL BE
CLOSE TO 5FT AS SOUTHERLY SWELL INCREASES.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE WATERS. MAY SEE BRIEF
GUSTS TO 25 KT AS FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL
LIKELY STALL NEAR OR JUST S OF THE S COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS
SHIFT TO E-NE AS THIS FRONT PASSES. AREAS OF SHOWERS WITH SCT
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...EXPECTING MAINLY NE WINDS. GUSTS TO 25 KT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS AS THIS FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. SEAS
BUILD UP TO 6-8 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS TO E OF CAPE
COD...AND UP TO 5 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE
LINGERING SHOWERS DURING MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...FRANK/BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 291400
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1000 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND BEAUTIFUL WEATHER TODAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING A GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY LINGER NEAR OUR AREA INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

***BEAUTIFUL DAY IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION***

1000 AM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WILL RESULT IN A BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY
TO SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON...BUT STILL
PARTIAL SUNSHINE EXPECTED.  HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH OR EXCEED 80
INLAND FROM THE COAST WITH SOME MIDDLE 80S EXPECTED ACROSS THE
DISTANT INTERIOR.  MEANWHILE...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR
SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP ON THE COAST...WHICH WHICH ACTUALLY HAVE
ALREADY STARTED IN SOME LOCALES.  HIGH TEMPS ALONG THE COAST WILL BE
HELD IN THE 70S.  IN FACT...READINGS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN MA
COAST INCLUDING BOSTON MAY FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER MILD AND MUGGY
NIGHT FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WAA WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WHICH
WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER...ESP FOR THE SOUTH COASTAL REGIONS.
CANNOT RULE OUT ANOTHER ROUND OF MARINE FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE TEMPS
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WITH DEWPOINTS ALSO IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S.

TOMORROW...

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. BEST DYNAMICS AND FORCING
WILL BE WELL TO THE WEST OF THE REGION...HOWEVER BECAUSE WE ARE IN A
VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE BULK OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS
WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S...COOLER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

OVERALL MODEL TRENDS HAVE NOT DEVIATED MUCH FROM PRIOR RUNS.
CONFIDENCE GROWING IN THE TIMING OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT AS IT
CROSSES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS WEEKEND. MID-LEVEL
ATLANTIC RIDGE SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL
PERMIT A BRIEF MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE BY DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. AS TYPICAL WITH THESE FEATURES...AT THAT TIME RANGE IN
THE FORECAST...THERE ARE PLENTY OF TIMING DIFFERENCES YET TO BE
RESOLVED.

LEANED TOWARD THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION TO SMOOTH OVER THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY...THIS CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR A
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. PRECIPITABLE WATER DURING THIS TIME
REMAINS 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES...SO COULD ALSO SEE SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. AT THIS POINT...THINKING A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH NEAR
OR SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL TEND TO
SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES FARTHER SOUTH. THIS WILL LOWER THE RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AS MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO NORTHERN MA SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT STILL COULD SEE SPOTTY CONVECTION ACROSS N CT/RI/SE
MA. SHOWERS LOOK TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE ROUTE 2 AREA BY AROUND
SUNRISE MONDAY...BUT TIMING IS STILL IN QUESTION.

MONDAY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS MOVING THIS FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODEL
SUITE. LOOKS LIKE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LINGERS INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN CT/RI/SOUTHEASTERN MA. WINDS DO
START TO SHIFT AROUND TO N-NE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MA...SO
THIS WILL CUT BACK ON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS COOLER AIR MOVES
IN. FOR NOW...CONTINUED TO TAPER OFF RAINFALL BY MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS MOST AREAS...BUT DO LINGER IT ALONG THE S COAST THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN WHAT IT HAS
BEEN RECENTLY...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S. SOME LOCATIONS ALONG
THE EAST COAST MAY NOT EVEN BREAK 60 WITH ONSHORE WINDS.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD FINALLY PUSH OFF THE SOUTH COAST
BY AROUND MIDDAY TUESDAY AT THE LATEST. NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE
AS A HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. HAVE CONTINUED A DRY AND SEASONABLE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR BUT SOME BRIEF
MARGINAL MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST MA INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON.  SEA BREEZES WERE ALREADY DEVELOPING ON THE EASTERN MA
COAST AND SHOULD OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR
CIGS COULD DEVELOP WITHIN -SHRA/-TSRA ACROSS CT VALLEY REGION.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  NORTHEAST SEA BREEZE WILL
COME EASTERLY BY AFTERNOON.  BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE
FOR A FEW HOURS FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING
THE DAY WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS SHIFT TO N-NE
DURING THE DAY...THEN BECOME NE SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY GUST UP
TO AROUND 20 KT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. SHOWERS LINGER SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MONDAY...SCT SHOWERS LINGERING WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM N-S DURING THE DAY...EXCEPT ALONG
THE S COAST...WHERE SOME SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER. MAY SEE
BRIEF MVFR IN ANY SHOWERS. NE WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 ACROSS OUTER
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. MAY SEE ISOLD SHOWERS EARLY TUE
ALONG S COAST BUT THOSE SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE. NE WIND GUSTS TO 25
KT STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SOME
STRATUS/FOG IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ON THE SRN WATERS TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
WATERS AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND. SW WINDS MAY GUST
NEAR 25-30 KTS. MAY NEED NEAR SHORE SCA. OTHERWISE SEAS WILL BE
CLOSE TO 5FT AS SOUTHERLY SWELL INCREASES.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE WATERS. MAY SEE BRIEF
GUSTS TO 25 KT AS FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL
LIKELY STALL NEAR OR JUST S OF THE S COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS
SHIFT TO E-NE AS THIS FRONT PASSES. AREAS OF SHOWERS WITH SCT
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...EXPECTING MAINLY NE WINDS. GUSTS TO 25 KT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS AS THIS FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. SEAS
BUILD UP TO 6-8 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS TO E OF CAPE
COD...AND UP TO 5 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE
LINGERING SHOWERS DURING MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...FRANK/BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291112
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
712 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING A GREATER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY
LINGER NEAR OUR AREA INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
712 AM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST THIS MORNING. REMNANTS OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY...WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR. BROUGHT NEAR-TERM FORECAST BACK IN LINE WITH OBSERVED
TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD YIELDING TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE
DAY. SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL POOL IN FROM THE NORTH AND WITH
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES FROM DIURNAL HEATING...WILL SEE DIURNAL
CLOUDS DEVELOP. OTHERWISE WEAK WINDS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SEA
BREEZES TO EVOLVE AND MOVE ALONG THE COASTLINES. TEMPS WILL STILL BE
ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH 70S
ALONG THE COASTLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER MILD AND MUGGY
NIGHT FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WAA WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WHICH
WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER...ESP FOR THE SOUTH COASTAL REGIONS.
CANNOT RULE OUT ANOTHER ROUND OF MARINE FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE TEMPS
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WITH DEWPOINTS ALSO IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S.

TOMORROW...

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. BEST DYNAMICS AND FORCING
WILL BE WELL TO THE WEST OF THE REGION...HOWEVER BECAUSE WE ARE IN A
VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE BULK OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS
WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S...COOLER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

OVERALL MODEL TRENDS HAVE NOT DEVIATED MUCH FROM PRIOR RUNS.
CONFIDENCE GROWING IN THE TIMING OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT AS IT
CROSSES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS WEEKEND. MID-LEVEL
ATLANTIC RIDGE SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL
PERMIT A BRIEF MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE BY DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. AS TYPICAL WITH THESE FEATURES...AT THAT TIME RANGE IN
THE FORECAST...THERE ARE PLENTY OF TIMING DIFFERENCES YET TO BE
RESOLVED.

LEANED TOWARD THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION TO SMOOTH OVER THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY...THIS CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR A
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. PRECIPITABLE WATER DURING THIS TIME
REMAINS 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES...SO COULD ALSO SEE SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. AT THIS POINT...THINKING A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH NEAR
OR SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL TEND TO
SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES FARTHER SOUTH. THIS WILL LOWER THE RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AS MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO NORTHERN MA SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT STILL COULD SEE SPOTTY CONVECTION ACROSS N CT/RI/SE
MA. SHOWERS LOOK TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE ROUTE 2 AREA BY AROUND
SUNRISE MONDAY...BUT TIMING IS STILL IN QUESTION.

MONDAY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS MOVING THIS FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODEL
SUITE. LOOKS LIKE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LINGERS INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN CT/RI/SOUTHEASTERN MA. WINDS DO
START TO SHIFT AROUND TO N-NE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MA...SO
THIS WILL CUT BACK ON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS COOLER AIR MOVES
IN. FOR NOW...CONTINUED TO TAPER OFF RAINFALL BY MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS MOST AREAS...BUT DO LINGER IT ALONG THE S COAST THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN WHAT IT HAS
BEEN RECENTLY...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S. SOME LOCATIONS ALONG
THE EAST COAST MAY NOT EVEN BREAK 60 WITH ONSHORE WINDS.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD FINALLY PUSH OFF THE SOUTH COAST
BY AROUND MIDDAY TUESDAY AT THE LATEST. NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE
AS A HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. HAVE CONTINUED A DRY AND SEASONABLE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. EXPECT SEA
BREEZES WITH WINDS SHIFTING MAINLY TO THE E LATE IN THE DAY. SOME
PATCHY MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP ALONG SOUTH COAST TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR
CIGS COULD DEVELOP WITHIN -SHRA/-TSRA ACROSS CT VALLEY REGION.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEABREEZE WILL DEVELOP
BETWEEN 13-15Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING
THE DAY WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS SHIFT TO N-NE
DURING THE DAY...THEN BECOME NE SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY GUST UP
TO AROUND 20 KT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. SHOWERS LINGER SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MONDAY...SCT SHOWERS LINGERING WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM N-S DURING THE DAY...EXCEPT ALONG
THE S COAST...WHERE SOME SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER. MAY SEE
BRIEF MVFR IN ANY SHOWERS. NE WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 ACROSS OUTER
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. MAY SEE ISOLD SHOWERS EARLY TUE
ALONG S COAST BUT THOSE SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE. NE WIND GUSTS TO 25
KT STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SOME
STRATUS/FOG IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ON THE SRN WATERS TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
WATERS AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND. SW WINDS MAY GUST
NEAR 25-30 KTS. MAY NEED NEAR SHORE SCA. OTHERWISE SEAS WILL BE
CLOSE TO 5FT AS SOUTHERLY SWELL INCREASES.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE WATERS. MAY SEE BRIEF
GUSTS TO 25 KT AS FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL
LIKELY STALL NEAR OR JUST S OF THE S COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS
SHIFT TO E-NE AS THIS FRONT PASSES. AREAS OF SHOWERS WITH SCT
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...EXPECTING MAINLY NE WINDS. GUSTS TO 25 KT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS AS THIS FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. SEAS
BUILD UP TO 6-8 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS TO E OF CAPE
COD...AND UP TO 5 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE
LINGERING SHOWERS DURING MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 291112
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
712 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING A GREATER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY
LINGER NEAR OUR AREA INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
712 AM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST THIS MORNING. REMNANTS OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY...WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR. BROUGHT NEAR-TERM FORECAST BACK IN LINE WITH OBSERVED
TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD YIELDING TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE
DAY. SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL POOL IN FROM THE NORTH AND WITH
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES FROM DIURNAL HEATING...WILL SEE DIURNAL
CLOUDS DEVELOP. OTHERWISE WEAK WINDS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SEA
BREEZES TO EVOLVE AND MOVE ALONG THE COASTLINES. TEMPS WILL STILL BE
ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH 70S
ALONG THE COASTLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER MILD AND MUGGY
NIGHT FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WAA WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WHICH
WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER...ESP FOR THE SOUTH COASTAL REGIONS.
CANNOT RULE OUT ANOTHER ROUND OF MARINE FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE TEMPS
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WITH DEWPOINTS ALSO IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S.

TOMORROW...

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. BEST DYNAMICS AND FORCING
WILL BE WELL TO THE WEST OF THE REGION...HOWEVER BECAUSE WE ARE IN A
VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE BULK OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS
WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S...COOLER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

OVERALL MODEL TRENDS HAVE NOT DEVIATED MUCH FROM PRIOR RUNS.
CONFIDENCE GROWING IN THE TIMING OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT AS IT
CROSSES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS WEEKEND. MID-LEVEL
ATLANTIC RIDGE SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL
PERMIT A BRIEF MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE BY DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. AS TYPICAL WITH THESE FEATURES...AT THAT TIME RANGE IN
THE FORECAST...THERE ARE PLENTY OF TIMING DIFFERENCES YET TO BE
RESOLVED.

LEANED TOWARD THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION TO SMOOTH OVER THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY...THIS CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR A
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. PRECIPITABLE WATER DURING THIS TIME
REMAINS 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES...SO COULD ALSO SEE SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. AT THIS POINT...THINKING A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH NEAR
OR SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL TEND TO
SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES FARTHER SOUTH. THIS WILL LOWER THE RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AS MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO NORTHERN MA SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT STILL COULD SEE SPOTTY CONVECTION ACROSS N CT/RI/SE
MA. SHOWERS LOOK TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE ROUTE 2 AREA BY AROUND
SUNRISE MONDAY...BUT TIMING IS STILL IN QUESTION.

MONDAY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS MOVING THIS FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODEL
SUITE. LOOKS LIKE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LINGERS INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN CT/RI/SOUTHEASTERN MA. WINDS DO
START TO SHIFT AROUND TO N-NE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MA...SO
THIS WILL CUT BACK ON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS COOLER AIR MOVES
IN. FOR NOW...CONTINUED TO TAPER OFF RAINFALL BY MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS MOST AREAS...BUT DO LINGER IT ALONG THE S COAST THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN WHAT IT HAS
BEEN RECENTLY...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S. SOME LOCATIONS ALONG
THE EAST COAST MAY NOT EVEN BREAK 60 WITH ONSHORE WINDS.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD FINALLY PUSH OFF THE SOUTH COAST
BY AROUND MIDDAY TUESDAY AT THE LATEST. NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE
AS A HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. HAVE CONTINUED A DRY AND SEASONABLE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. EXPECT SEA
BREEZES WITH WINDS SHIFTING MAINLY TO THE E LATE IN THE DAY. SOME
PATCHY MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP ALONG SOUTH COAST TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR
CIGS COULD DEVELOP WITHIN -SHRA/-TSRA ACROSS CT VALLEY REGION.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEABREEZE WILL DEVELOP
BETWEEN 13-15Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING
THE DAY WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS SHIFT TO N-NE
DURING THE DAY...THEN BECOME NE SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY GUST UP
TO AROUND 20 KT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. SHOWERS LINGER SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MONDAY...SCT SHOWERS LINGERING WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM N-S DURING THE DAY...EXCEPT ALONG
THE S COAST...WHERE SOME SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER. MAY SEE
BRIEF MVFR IN ANY SHOWERS. NE WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 ACROSS OUTER
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. MAY SEE ISOLD SHOWERS EARLY TUE
ALONG S COAST BUT THOSE SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE. NE WIND GUSTS TO 25
KT STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SOME
STRATUS/FOG IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ON THE SRN WATERS TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
WATERS AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND. SW WINDS MAY GUST
NEAR 25-30 KTS. MAY NEED NEAR SHORE SCA. OTHERWISE SEAS WILL BE
CLOSE TO 5FT AS SOUTHERLY SWELL INCREASES.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE WATERS. MAY SEE BRIEF
GUSTS TO 25 KT AS FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL
LIKELY STALL NEAR OR JUST S OF THE S COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS
SHIFT TO E-NE AS THIS FRONT PASSES. AREAS OF SHOWERS WITH SCT
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...EXPECTING MAINLY NE WINDS. GUSTS TO 25 KT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS AS THIS FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. SEAS
BUILD UP TO 6-8 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS TO E OF CAPE
COD...AND UP TO 5 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE
LINGERING SHOWERS DURING MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290831
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
431 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING A GREATER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY
LINGER NEAR OUR AREA INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
4 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST THIS
MORNING. IT HAS PUSHED THROUGH BLOCK ISLAND...BUT IS TILL HUNG UP
ACROSS THE CANAL TOWARDS PROVINCETOWN. THIS FRONT EVENTUALLY WILL
WASHOUT THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO
POOL ALONG IT ALLOWING FOR LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE. WITH DRY
AIR MOVING IN ALOFT PER CLEAR SKIES...A LOW LEVEL INVERSION HAS SET
UP ALLOWING FOR FOG. VSBYS HAVE DROPPED DOWN TO 1SM ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST MASS/CAPE/ISLANDS. IN FACT FMH IS DOWN TO 1/4SM. AS THE
SUN BEGINS TO RISE...EXPECT FOG TO DISSIPATE ONCE MIXING WILL OCCUR.

TODAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD YIELDING TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE
DAY. SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL POOL IN FROM THE NORTH AND WITH
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES FROM DIURNAL HEATING...WILL SEE DIURNAL
CLOUDS DEVELOP. OTHERWISE WEAK WINDS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SEA
BREEZES TO EVOLVE AND MOVE ALONG THE COASTLINES. TEMPS WILL STILL BE
ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH 70S
ALONG THE COASTLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER MILD AND MUGGY
NIGHT FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WAA WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WHICH
WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER...ESP FOR THE SOUTH COASTAL REGIONS.
CANNOT RULE OUT ANOTHER ROUND OF MARINE FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE TEMPS
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WITH DEWPOINTS ALSO IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S.

TOMORROW...

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. BEST DYNAMICS AND FORCING
WILL BE WELL TO THE WEST OF THE REGION...HOWEVER BECAUSE WE ARE IN A
VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE BULK OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS
WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S...COOLER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

OVERALL MODEL TRENDS HAVE NOT DEVIATED MUCH FROM PRIOR RUNS.
CONFIDENCE GROWING IN THE TIMING OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT AS IT
CROSSES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS WEEKEND. MID-LEVEL
ATLANTIC RIDGE SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL
PERMIT A BRIEF MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE BY DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. AS TYPICAL WITH THESE FEATURES...AT THAT TIME RANGE IN
THE FORECAST...THERE ARE PLENTY OF TIMING DIFFERENCES YET TO BE
RESOLVED.

LEANED TOWARD THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION TO SMOOTH OVER THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY...THIS CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR A
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. PRECIPITABLE WATER DURING THIS TIME
REMAINS 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES...SO COULD ALSO SEE SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. AT THIS POINT...THINKING A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH NEAR
OR SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL TEND TO
SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES FARTHER SOUTH. THIS WILL LOWER THE RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AS MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO NORTHERN MA SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT STILL COULD SEE SPOTTY CONVECTION ACROSS N CT/RI/SE
MA. SHOWERS LOOK TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE ROUTE 2 AREA BY AROUND
SUNRISE MONDAY...BUT TIMING IS STILL IN QUESTION.

MONDAY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS MOVING THIS FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODEL
SUITE. LOOKS LIKE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LINGERS INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN CT/RI/SOUTHEASTERN MA. WINDS DO
START TO SHIFT AROUND TO N-NE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MA...SO
THIS WILL CUT BACK ON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS COOLER AIR MOVES
IN. FOR NOW...CONTINUED TO TAPER OFF RAINFALL BY MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS MOST AREAS...BUT DO LINGER IT ALONG THE S COAST THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN WHAT IT HAS
BEEN RECENTLY...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S. SOME LOCATIONS ALONG
THE EAST COAST MAY NOT EVEN BREAK 60 WITH ONSHORE WINDS.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD FINALLY PUSH OFF THE SOUTH COAST
BY AROUND MIDDAY TUESDAY AT THE LATEST. NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE
AS A HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. HAVE CONTINUED A DRY AND SEASONABLE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

BEFORE 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH
OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF FRONT COULD SEE IFR/MVFR STRATUS AND FOG. ALSO
COULD SEE MVFR FOG DEVELOP ACROSS CT VALLEY SITES.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. EXPECT SEA
BREEZES WITH WINDS SHIFTING MAINLY TO THE E LATE IN THE DAY. SOME
PATCHY MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP ALONG SOUTH COAST TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR
CIGS COULD DEVELOP WITHIN -SHRA/-TSRA ACROSS CT VALLEY REGION.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP
BETWEEN 13-15Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING
THE DAY WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS SHIFT TO N-NE
DURING THE DAY...THEN BECOME NE SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY GUST UP
TO AROUND 20 KT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. SHOWERS LINGER SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MONDAY...SCT SHOWERS LINGERING WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM N-S DURING THE DAY...EXCEPT ALONG
THE S COAST...WHERE SOME SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER. MAY SEE
BRIEF MVFR IN ANY SHOWERS. NE WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 ACROSS OUTER
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. MAY SEE ISOLD SHOWERS EARLY TUE
ALONG S COAST BUT THOSE SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE. NE WIND GUSTS TO 25
KT STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SOME
STRATUS/FOG IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ON THE SRN WATERS TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
WATERS AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND. SW WINDS MAY GUST
NEAR 25-30 KTS. MAY NEED NEAR SHORE SCA. OTHERWISE SEAS WILL BE
CLOSE TO 5FT AS SOUTHERLY SWELL INCREASES.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE WATERS. MAY SEE BRIEF
GUSTS TO 25 KT AS FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL
LIKELY STALL NEAR OR JUST S OF THE S COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS
SHIFT TO E-NE AS THIS FRONT PASSES. AREAS OF SHOWERS WITH SCT
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...EXPECTING MAINLY NE WINDS. GUSTS TO 25 KT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS AS THIS FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. SEAS
BUILD UP TO 6-8 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS TO E OF CAPE
COD...AND UP TO 5 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE
LINGERING SHOWERS DURING MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290831
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
431 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING A GREATER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY
LINGER NEAR OUR AREA INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
4 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST THIS
MORNING. IT HAS PUSHED THROUGH BLOCK ISLAND...BUT IS TILL HUNG UP
ACROSS THE CANAL TOWARDS PROVINCETOWN. THIS FRONT EVENTUALLY WILL
WASHOUT THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO
POOL ALONG IT ALLOWING FOR LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE. WITH DRY
AIR MOVING IN ALOFT PER CLEAR SKIES...A LOW LEVEL INVERSION HAS SET
UP ALLOWING FOR FOG. VSBYS HAVE DROPPED DOWN TO 1SM ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST MASS/CAPE/ISLANDS. IN FACT FMH IS DOWN TO 1/4SM. AS THE
SUN BEGINS TO RISE...EXPECT FOG TO DISSIPATE ONCE MIXING WILL OCCUR.

TODAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD YIELDING TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE
DAY. SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL POOL IN FROM THE NORTH AND WITH
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES FROM DIURNAL HEATING...WILL SEE DIURNAL
CLOUDS DEVELOP. OTHERWISE WEAK WINDS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SEA
BREEZES TO EVOLVE AND MOVE ALONG THE COASTLINES. TEMPS WILL STILL BE
ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH 70S
ALONG THE COASTLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER MILD AND MUGGY
NIGHT FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WAA WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WHICH
WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER...ESP FOR THE SOUTH COASTAL REGIONS.
CANNOT RULE OUT ANOTHER ROUND OF MARINE FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE TEMPS
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WITH DEWPOINTS ALSO IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S.

TOMORROW...

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. BEST DYNAMICS AND FORCING
WILL BE WELL TO THE WEST OF THE REGION...HOWEVER BECAUSE WE ARE IN A
VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE BULK OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS
WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S...COOLER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

OVERALL MODEL TRENDS HAVE NOT DEVIATED MUCH FROM PRIOR RUNS.
CONFIDENCE GROWING IN THE TIMING OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT AS IT
CROSSES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS WEEKEND. MID-LEVEL
ATLANTIC RIDGE SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL
PERMIT A BRIEF MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE BY DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. AS TYPICAL WITH THESE FEATURES...AT THAT TIME RANGE IN
THE FORECAST...THERE ARE PLENTY OF TIMING DIFFERENCES YET TO BE
RESOLVED.

LEANED TOWARD THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION TO SMOOTH OVER THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY...THIS CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR A
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. PRECIPITABLE WATER DURING THIS TIME
REMAINS 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES...SO COULD ALSO SEE SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. AT THIS POINT...THINKING A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH NEAR
OR SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL TEND TO
SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES FARTHER SOUTH. THIS WILL LOWER THE RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AS MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO NORTHERN MA SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT STILL COULD SEE SPOTTY CONVECTION ACROSS N CT/RI/SE
MA. SHOWERS LOOK TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE ROUTE 2 AREA BY AROUND
SUNRISE MONDAY...BUT TIMING IS STILL IN QUESTION.

MONDAY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS MOVING THIS FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODEL
SUITE. LOOKS LIKE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LINGERS INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN CT/RI/SOUTHEASTERN MA. WINDS DO
START TO SHIFT AROUND TO N-NE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MA...SO
THIS WILL CUT BACK ON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS COOLER AIR MOVES
IN. FOR NOW...CONTINUED TO TAPER OFF RAINFALL BY MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS MOST AREAS...BUT DO LINGER IT ALONG THE S COAST THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN WHAT IT HAS
BEEN RECENTLY...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S. SOME LOCATIONS ALONG
THE EAST COAST MAY NOT EVEN BREAK 60 WITH ONSHORE WINDS.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS SHOULD FINALLY PUSH OFF THE SOUTH COAST
BY AROUND MIDDAY TUESDAY AT THE LATEST. NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE
AS A HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. HAVE CONTINUED A DRY AND SEASONABLE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

BEFORE 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH
OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF FRONT COULD SEE IFR/MVFR STRATUS AND FOG. ALSO
COULD SEE MVFR FOG DEVELOP ACROSS CT VALLEY SITES.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. EXPECT SEA
BREEZES WITH WINDS SHIFTING MAINLY TO THE E LATE IN THE DAY. SOME
PATCHY MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP ALONG SOUTH COAST TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR
CIGS COULD DEVELOP WITHIN -SHRA/-TSRA ACROSS CT VALLEY REGION.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP
BETWEEN 13-15Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING
THE DAY WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS SHIFT TO N-NE
DURING THE DAY...THEN BECOME NE SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY GUST UP
TO AROUND 20 KT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. SHOWERS LINGER SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MONDAY...SCT SHOWERS LINGERING WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM N-S DURING THE DAY...EXCEPT ALONG
THE S COAST...WHERE SOME SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER. MAY SEE
BRIEF MVFR IN ANY SHOWERS. NE WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 ACROSS OUTER
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. MAY SEE ISOLD SHOWERS EARLY TUE
ALONG S COAST BUT THOSE SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE. NE WIND GUSTS TO 25
KT STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SOME
STRATUS/FOG IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ON THE SRN WATERS TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
WATERS AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND. SW WINDS MAY GUST
NEAR 25-30 KTS. MAY NEED NEAR SHORE SCA. OTHERWISE SEAS WILL BE
CLOSE TO 5FT AS SOUTHERLY SWELL INCREASES.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE WATERS. MAY SEE BRIEF
GUSTS TO 25 KT AS FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL
LIKELY STALL NEAR OR JUST S OF THE S COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS
SHIFT TO E-NE AS THIS FRONT PASSES. AREAS OF SHOWERS WITH SCT
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...EXPECTING MAINLY NE WINDS. GUSTS TO 25 KT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS AS THIS FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. SEAS
BUILD UP TO 6-8 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS TO E OF CAPE
COD...AND UP TO 5 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE
LINGERING SHOWERS DURING MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 290755
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
355 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING A GREATER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY
LINGER NEAR OUR AREA INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

4 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST THIS
MORNING. IT HAS PUSHED THROUGH BLOCK ISLAND...BUT IS TILL HUNG UP
ACROSS THE CANAL TOWARDS PROVINCETOWN. THIS FRONT EVENTUALLY WILL
WASHOUT THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO
POOL ALONG IT ALLOWING FOR LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE. WITH DRY
AIR MOVING IN ALOFT PER CLEAR SKIES...A LOW LEVEL INVERSION HAS SET
UP ALLOWING FOR FOG. VSBYS HAVE DROPPED DOWN TO 1SM ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST MASS/CAPE/ISLANDS. IN FACT FMH IS DOWN TO 1/4SM. AS THE
SUN BEGINS TO RISE...EXPECT FOG TO DISSIPATE ONCE MIXING WILL OCCUR.

TODAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD YIELDING TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE
DAY. SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL POOL IN FROM THE NORTH AND WITH
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES FROM DIURNAL HEATING...WILL SEE DIURNAL
CLOUDS DEVELOP. OTHERWISE WEAK WINDS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SEA
BREEZES TO EVOLVE AND MOVE ALONG THE COASTLINES. TEMPS WILL STILL BE
ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH 70S
ALONG THE COASTLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER MILD AND MUGGY
NIGHT FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WAA WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WHICH
WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER...ESP FOR THE SOUTH COASTAL REGIONS.
CANNOT RULE OUT ANOTHER ROUND OF MARINE FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE TEMPS
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WITH DEWPOINTS ALSO IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S.

TOMORROW...

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. BEST DYNAMICS AND FORCING
WILL BE WELL TO THE WEST OF THE REGION...HOWEVER BECAUSE WE ARE IN A
VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE BULK OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS
WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S...COOLER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

OVERALL UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG EASTERN SEABOARD APPEARS TO
BREAK DOWN SATURDAY...THEN TROUGH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA BEGINS TO
SHIFT E LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE REGION AS IT RUNS PARALLEL TO THE
UPPER FLOW. TIMING ISSUES COME IN PLAY FROM MONDAY ONWARD...
DEPENDING UPON HOW FAR S THE FRONT FINALLY SETTLES WHILE HIGH
PRES BUILDS OUT OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES EASTWARD.

LEANED TOWARD THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE EARLY IN THIS PERIOD THEN
TRANSITIONED OVER THE GEFS AND ECENS GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWED A BIT
BETTER CONTINUITY.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY...HIGH PRES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD PUSHES FURTHER
OFFSHORE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...WITH GOOD SW WIND FLOW AND
INCREASING HUMIDITY MOVING NE INTO THE REGION. MODELS TENDING TO
SLOW THE PROGRESS OF THE APPROACHING FRONT OUT OF WESTERN QUEBEC
AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN AND SHIFTS E. HAVE MENTION
OF CHANCE POPS MOVING INTO WESTERN AREAS DURING SAT AFTERNOON...
THEN SHOULD PUSH SLOWLY SE SAT NIGHT.

GOOD INSTABILITY WITH THIS FRONT AS K INDICES INCREASE TO THE
LOWER-MID 30S. HAVE MENTIONED CHANCE POPS...BUT MENTIONED ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SAT NIGHT. NOTING INCREASING PWATS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AS WELL...UP TO 1.7 INCHES DURING
SAT NIGHT SO COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY
ACTIVITY. WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS REACH AROUND 80 INLAND...BUT ONLY IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST. MAY SEE
SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO AROUND 25-30 MPH ACROSS RI/SE MA SAT
AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

SUNDAY...LOOKS LIKE BEST SHOT OF MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION SUN/SUN NIGHT. CARRYING CAT POPS NEAR/ALONG THE SLOWLY
MOVING FRONT...AS WELL AS SOME SCT THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS INCREASE
TO 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES...SO COULD ALSO SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
AT THIS POINT...THINK THE FRONT WILL PUSH NEAR OR S OF THE MASS
PIKE AROUND SUN NIGHT...BUT WILL TEND TO SLOW DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LOWER THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS
MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO N MA SUN NIGHT...BUT STILL COULD SEE
SPOTTY CONVECTION ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS
GOING THROUGH AROUND 06Z...THEN SLOWLY LOWER ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN AREAS AFTER THAT. PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE
ROUTE 2 AREA BY AROUND SUNRISE MON...BUT TIMING IS STILL IN
QUESTION.

MONDAY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS MOVING THE FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODEL SUITE.
LOOKS LIKE THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP LINGERS THROUGH MON AND EVEN INTO
MON NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA. WINDS DO
START TO SHIFT AROUND TO N-NE ACROSS CENTRAL AND N MA SO THIS WILL
CUT BACK ON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN. FOR
NOW...TEND TO TAPER OFF PRECIP BY MON NIGHT ACROSS MOST
AREAS...BUT DO LINGER IT ALONG THE S COAST THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
60S...AND MAY NOT EVEN BREAK 60 ALONG THE E COAST WITH ONSHORE
WINDS.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...PRECIP SHOULD FINALLY PUSH OFF THE S COAST BY
AROUND MIDDAY TUE AT THE LATEST. NE WINDS PICK UP AS HIGH PRES
CROSSES NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. HAVE CARRIED A
DRY AND SEASONABLE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

BEFORE 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH
OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF FRONT COULD SEE IFR/MVFR STRATUS AND FOG. ALSO
COULD SEE MVFR FOG DEVELOP ACROSS CT VALLEY SITES.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. EXPECT SEA
BREEZES WITH WINDS SHIFTING MAINLY TO THE E LATE IN THE DAY. SOME
PATCHY MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP ALONG SOUTH COAST TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR
CIGS COULD DEVELOP WITHIN -SHRA/-TSRA ACROSS CT VALLEY REGION.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP
BETWEEN 13-15Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING
THE DAY WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS SHIFT TO N-NE
DURING THE DAY...THEN BECOME NE SUN NIGHT WHICH MAY GUST UP TO
AROUND 20 KT ALONG THE S COAST. SHOWERS LINGER SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...SCT SHOWERS LINGERING WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY
BUT WILL IMPROVE FROM N-S DURING THE DAY EXCEPT ALONG THE S COAST
WHERE SHOWERS WILL HANG IN THROUGH SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR
IN ANY SHOWERS THERE SUN NIGHT. NE WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 ACROSS
OUTER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. MAY SEE ISOLD SHOWERS EARLY TUE
ALONG S COAST BUT SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE. NE WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT
STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SOME
STRATUS/FOG IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ON THE SRN WATERS TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
WATERS AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND. SW WINDS MAY GUST
NEAR 25-30 KTS. MAY NEED NEAR SHORE SCA. OTHERWISE SEAS WILL BE
CLOSE TO 5FT AS SOUTHERLY SWELL INCREASES.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE WATERS. MAY SEE BRIEF
GUSTS TO 25 KT AS FRONT PASSES DURING SUNDAY...THEN WILL STALL
NEAR OR JUST S OF THE S COAST SUN NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO E-NE AS
FRONT PASSES. AREAS OF SHOWERS WITH SCT THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL VSBY
RESTRICTIONS.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY NE WINDS. GUSTS TO 25 KT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE.
SEAS BUILD UP TO 6-8 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS TO E OF
CAPE COD...AND UP TO 5 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE
LINGERING SHOWERS DURING MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DUNTEN/EVT
MARINE...DUNTEN/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290755
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
355 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING A GREATER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY
LINGER NEAR OUR AREA INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

4 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST THIS
MORNING. IT HAS PUSHED THROUGH BLOCK ISLAND...BUT IS TILL HUNG UP
ACROSS THE CANAL TOWARDS PROVINCETOWN. THIS FRONT EVENTUALLY WILL
WASHOUT THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO
POOL ALONG IT ALLOWING FOR LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE. WITH DRY
AIR MOVING IN ALOFT PER CLEAR SKIES...A LOW LEVEL INVERSION HAS SET
UP ALLOWING FOR FOG. VSBYS HAVE DROPPED DOWN TO 1SM ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST MASS/CAPE/ISLANDS. IN FACT FMH IS DOWN TO 1/4SM. AS THE
SUN BEGINS TO RISE...EXPECT FOG TO DISSIPATE ONCE MIXING WILL OCCUR.

TODAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD YIELDING TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE
DAY. SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL POOL IN FROM THE NORTH AND WITH
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES FROM DIURNAL HEATING...WILL SEE DIURNAL
CLOUDS DEVELOP. OTHERWISE WEAK WINDS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SEA
BREEZES TO EVOLVE AND MOVE ALONG THE COASTLINES. TEMPS WILL STILL BE
ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH 70S
ALONG THE COASTLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER MILD AND MUGGY
NIGHT FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WAA WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WHICH
WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER...ESP FOR THE SOUTH COASTAL REGIONS.
CANNOT RULE OUT ANOTHER ROUND OF MARINE FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE TEMPS
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WITH DEWPOINTS ALSO IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S.

TOMORROW...

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. BEST DYNAMICS AND FORCING
WILL BE WELL TO THE WEST OF THE REGION...HOWEVER BECAUSE WE ARE IN A
VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE BULK OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS
WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S...COOLER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

OVERALL UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG EASTERN SEABOARD APPEARS TO
BREAK DOWN SATURDAY...THEN TROUGH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA BEGINS TO
SHIFT E LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE REGION AS IT RUNS PARALLEL TO THE
UPPER FLOW. TIMING ISSUES COME IN PLAY FROM MONDAY ONWARD...
DEPENDING UPON HOW FAR S THE FRONT FINALLY SETTLES WHILE HIGH
PRES BUILDS OUT OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES EASTWARD.

LEANED TOWARD THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE EARLY IN THIS PERIOD THEN
TRANSITIONED OVER THE GEFS AND ECENS GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWED A BIT
BETTER CONTINUITY.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY...HIGH PRES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD PUSHES FURTHER
OFFSHORE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...WITH GOOD SW WIND FLOW AND
INCREASING HUMIDITY MOVING NE INTO THE REGION. MODELS TENDING TO
SLOW THE PROGRESS OF THE APPROACHING FRONT OUT OF WESTERN QUEBEC
AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN AND SHIFTS E. HAVE MENTION
OF CHANCE POPS MOVING INTO WESTERN AREAS DURING SAT AFTERNOON...
THEN SHOULD PUSH SLOWLY SE SAT NIGHT.

GOOD INSTABILITY WITH THIS FRONT AS K INDICES INCREASE TO THE
LOWER-MID 30S. HAVE MENTIONED CHANCE POPS...BUT MENTIONED ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SAT NIGHT. NOTING INCREASING PWATS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AS WELL...UP TO 1.7 INCHES DURING
SAT NIGHT SO COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY
ACTIVITY. WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS REACH AROUND 80 INLAND...BUT ONLY IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST. MAY SEE
SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO AROUND 25-30 MPH ACROSS RI/SE MA SAT
AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

SUNDAY...LOOKS LIKE BEST SHOT OF MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION SUN/SUN NIGHT. CARRYING CAT POPS NEAR/ALONG THE SLOWLY
MOVING FRONT...AS WELL AS SOME SCT THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS INCREASE
TO 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES...SO COULD ALSO SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
AT THIS POINT...THINK THE FRONT WILL PUSH NEAR OR S OF THE MASS
PIKE AROUND SUN NIGHT...BUT WILL TEND TO SLOW DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LOWER THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS
MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO N MA SUN NIGHT...BUT STILL COULD SEE
SPOTTY CONVECTION ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS
GOING THROUGH AROUND 06Z...THEN SLOWLY LOWER ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN AREAS AFTER THAT. PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE
ROUTE 2 AREA BY AROUND SUNRISE MON...BUT TIMING IS STILL IN
QUESTION.

MONDAY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS MOVING THE FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODEL SUITE.
LOOKS LIKE THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP LINGERS THROUGH MON AND EVEN INTO
MON NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA. WINDS DO
START TO SHIFT AROUND TO N-NE ACROSS CENTRAL AND N MA SO THIS WILL
CUT BACK ON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN. FOR
NOW...TEND TO TAPER OFF PRECIP BY MON NIGHT ACROSS MOST
AREAS...BUT DO LINGER IT ALONG THE S COAST THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
60S...AND MAY NOT EVEN BREAK 60 ALONG THE E COAST WITH ONSHORE
WINDS.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...PRECIP SHOULD FINALLY PUSH OFF THE S COAST BY
AROUND MIDDAY TUE AT THE LATEST. NE WINDS PICK UP AS HIGH PRES
CROSSES NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. HAVE CARRIED A
DRY AND SEASONABLE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

BEFORE 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH
OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF FRONT COULD SEE IFR/MVFR STRATUS AND FOG. ALSO
COULD SEE MVFR FOG DEVELOP ACROSS CT VALLEY SITES.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. EXPECT SEA
BREEZES WITH WINDS SHIFTING MAINLY TO THE E LATE IN THE DAY. SOME
PATCHY MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP ALONG SOUTH COAST TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR
CIGS COULD DEVELOP WITHIN -SHRA/-TSRA ACROSS CT VALLEY REGION.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP
BETWEEN 13-15Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING
THE DAY WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS SHIFT TO N-NE
DURING THE DAY...THEN BECOME NE SUN NIGHT WHICH MAY GUST UP TO
AROUND 20 KT ALONG THE S COAST. SHOWERS LINGER SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...SCT SHOWERS LINGERING WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY
BUT WILL IMPROVE FROM N-S DURING THE DAY EXCEPT ALONG THE S COAST
WHERE SHOWERS WILL HANG IN THROUGH SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR
IN ANY SHOWERS THERE SUN NIGHT. NE WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 ACROSS
OUTER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. MAY SEE ISOLD SHOWERS EARLY TUE
ALONG S COAST BUT SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE. NE WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT
STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SOME
STRATUS/FOG IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ON THE SRN WATERS TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
WATERS AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND. SW WINDS MAY GUST
NEAR 25-30 KTS. MAY NEED NEAR SHORE SCA. OTHERWISE SEAS WILL BE
CLOSE TO 5FT AS SOUTHERLY SWELL INCREASES.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE WATERS. MAY SEE BRIEF
GUSTS TO 25 KT AS FRONT PASSES DURING SUNDAY...THEN WILL STALL
NEAR OR JUST S OF THE S COAST SUN NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO E-NE AS
FRONT PASSES. AREAS OF SHOWERS WITH SCT THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL VSBY
RESTRICTIONS.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY NE WINDS. GUSTS TO 25 KT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE.
SEAS BUILD UP TO 6-8 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS TO E OF
CAPE COD...AND UP TO 5 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE
LINGERING SHOWERS DURING MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DUNTEN/EVT
MARINE...DUNTEN/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290755
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
355 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING A GREATER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY
LINGER NEAR OUR AREA INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

4 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST THIS
MORNING. IT HAS PUSHED THROUGH BLOCK ISLAND...BUT IS TILL HUNG UP
ACROSS THE CANAL TOWARDS PROVINCETOWN. THIS FRONT EVENTUALLY WILL
WASHOUT THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO
POOL ALONG IT ALLOWING FOR LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE. WITH DRY
AIR MOVING IN ALOFT PER CLEAR SKIES...A LOW LEVEL INVERSION HAS SET
UP ALLOWING FOR FOG. VSBYS HAVE DROPPED DOWN TO 1SM ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST MASS/CAPE/ISLANDS. IN FACT FMH IS DOWN TO 1/4SM. AS THE
SUN BEGINS TO RISE...EXPECT FOG TO DISSIPATE ONCE MIXING WILL OCCUR.

TODAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD YIELDING TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE
DAY. SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL POOL IN FROM THE NORTH AND WITH
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES FROM DIURNAL HEATING...WILL SEE DIURNAL
CLOUDS DEVELOP. OTHERWISE WEAK WINDS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SEA
BREEZES TO EVOLVE AND MOVE ALONG THE COASTLINES. TEMPS WILL STILL BE
ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH 70S
ALONG THE COASTLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER MILD AND MUGGY
NIGHT FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WAA WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WHICH
WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER...ESP FOR THE SOUTH COASTAL REGIONS.
CANNOT RULE OUT ANOTHER ROUND OF MARINE FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE TEMPS
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WITH DEWPOINTS ALSO IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S.

TOMORROW...

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. BEST DYNAMICS AND FORCING
WILL BE WELL TO THE WEST OF THE REGION...HOWEVER BECAUSE WE ARE IN A
VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE BULK OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS
WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S...COOLER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

OVERALL UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG EASTERN SEABOARD APPEARS TO
BREAK DOWN SATURDAY...THEN TROUGH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA BEGINS TO
SHIFT E LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE REGION AS IT RUNS PARALLEL TO THE
UPPER FLOW. TIMING ISSUES COME IN PLAY FROM MONDAY ONWARD...
DEPENDING UPON HOW FAR S THE FRONT FINALLY SETTLES WHILE HIGH
PRES BUILDS OUT OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES EASTWARD.

LEANED TOWARD THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE EARLY IN THIS PERIOD THEN
TRANSITIONED OVER THE GEFS AND ECENS GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWED A BIT
BETTER CONTINUITY.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY...HIGH PRES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD PUSHES FURTHER
OFFSHORE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...WITH GOOD SW WIND FLOW AND
INCREASING HUMIDITY MOVING NE INTO THE REGION. MODELS TENDING TO
SLOW THE PROGRESS OF THE APPROACHING FRONT OUT OF WESTERN QUEBEC
AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN AND SHIFTS E. HAVE MENTION
OF CHANCE POPS MOVING INTO WESTERN AREAS DURING SAT AFTERNOON...
THEN SHOULD PUSH SLOWLY SE SAT NIGHT.

GOOD INSTABILITY WITH THIS FRONT AS K INDICES INCREASE TO THE
LOWER-MID 30S. HAVE MENTIONED CHANCE POPS...BUT MENTIONED ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SAT NIGHT. NOTING INCREASING PWATS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AS WELL...UP TO 1.7 INCHES DURING
SAT NIGHT SO COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY
ACTIVITY. WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS REACH AROUND 80 INLAND...BUT ONLY IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST. MAY SEE
SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO AROUND 25-30 MPH ACROSS RI/SE MA SAT
AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

SUNDAY...LOOKS LIKE BEST SHOT OF MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION SUN/SUN NIGHT. CARRYING CAT POPS NEAR/ALONG THE SLOWLY
MOVING FRONT...AS WELL AS SOME SCT THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS INCREASE
TO 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES...SO COULD ALSO SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
AT THIS POINT...THINK THE FRONT WILL PUSH NEAR OR S OF THE MASS
PIKE AROUND SUN NIGHT...BUT WILL TEND TO SLOW DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LOWER THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS
MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO N MA SUN NIGHT...BUT STILL COULD SEE
SPOTTY CONVECTION ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS
GOING THROUGH AROUND 06Z...THEN SLOWLY LOWER ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN AREAS AFTER THAT. PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE
ROUTE 2 AREA BY AROUND SUNRISE MON...BUT TIMING IS STILL IN
QUESTION.

MONDAY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS MOVING THE FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODEL SUITE.
LOOKS LIKE THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP LINGERS THROUGH MON AND EVEN INTO
MON NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA. WINDS DO
START TO SHIFT AROUND TO N-NE ACROSS CENTRAL AND N MA SO THIS WILL
CUT BACK ON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN. FOR
NOW...TEND TO TAPER OFF PRECIP BY MON NIGHT ACROSS MOST
AREAS...BUT DO LINGER IT ALONG THE S COAST THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
60S...AND MAY NOT EVEN BREAK 60 ALONG THE E COAST WITH ONSHORE
WINDS.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...PRECIP SHOULD FINALLY PUSH OFF THE S COAST BY
AROUND MIDDAY TUE AT THE LATEST. NE WINDS PICK UP AS HIGH PRES
CROSSES NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. HAVE CARRIED A
DRY AND SEASONABLE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

BEFORE 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH
OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF FRONT COULD SEE IFR/MVFR STRATUS AND FOG. ALSO
COULD SEE MVFR FOG DEVELOP ACROSS CT VALLEY SITES.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. EXPECT SEA
BREEZES WITH WINDS SHIFTING MAINLY TO THE E LATE IN THE DAY. SOME
PATCHY MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP ALONG SOUTH COAST TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR
CIGS COULD DEVELOP WITHIN -SHRA/-TSRA ACROSS CT VALLEY REGION.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP
BETWEEN 13-15Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING
THE DAY WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS SHIFT TO N-NE
DURING THE DAY...THEN BECOME NE SUN NIGHT WHICH MAY GUST UP TO
AROUND 20 KT ALONG THE S COAST. SHOWERS LINGER SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...SCT SHOWERS LINGERING WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY
BUT WILL IMPROVE FROM N-S DURING THE DAY EXCEPT ALONG THE S COAST
WHERE SHOWERS WILL HANG IN THROUGH SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR
IN ANY SHOWERS THERE SUN NIGHT. NE WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 ACROSS
OUTER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. MAY SEE ISOLD SHOWERS EARLY TUE
ALONG S COAST BUT SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE. NE WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT
STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SOME
STRATUS/FOG IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ON THE SRN WATERS TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
WATERS AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND. SW WINDS MAY GUST
NEAR 25-30 KTS. MAY NEED NEAR SHORE SCA. OTHERWISE SEAS WILL BE
CLOSE TO 5FT AS SOUTHERLY SWELL INCREASES.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE WATERS. MAY SEE BRIEF
GUSTS TO 25 KT AS FRONT PASSES DURING SUNDAY...THEN WILL STALL
NEAR OR JUST S OF THE S COAST SUN NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO E-NE AS
FRONT PASSES. AREAS OF SHOWERS WITH SCT THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL VSBY
RESTRICTIONS.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY NE WINDS. GUSTS TO 25 KT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE.
SEAS BUILD UP TO 6-8 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS TO E OF
CAPE COD...AND UP TO 5 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE
LINGERING SHOWERS DURING MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DUNTEN/EVT
MARINE...DUNTEN/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290755
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
355 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING A GREATER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY
LINGER NEAR OUR AREA INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

4 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST THIS
MORNING. IT HAS PUSHED THROUGH BLOCK ISLAND...BUT IS TILL HUNG UP
ACROSS THE CANAL TOWARDS PROVINCETOWN. THIS FRONT EVENTUALLY WILL
WASHOUT THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO
POOL ALONG IT ALLOWING FOR LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE. WITH DRY
AIR MOVING IN ALOFT PER CLEAR SKIES...A LOW LEVEL INVERSION HAS SET
UP ALLOWING FOR FOG. VSBYS HAVE DROPPED DOWN TO 1SM ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST MASS/CAPE/ISLANDS. IN FACT FMH IS DOWN TO 1/4SM. AS THE
SUN BEGINS TO RISE...EXPECT FOG TO DISSIPATE ONCE MIXING WILL OCCUR.

TODAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD YIELDING TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE
DAY. SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL POOL IN FROM THE NORTH AND WITH
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES FROM DIURNAL HEATING...WILL SEE DIURNAL
CLOUDS DEVELOP. OTHERWISE WEAK WINDS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SEA
BREEZES TO EVOLVE AND MOVE ALONG THE COASTLINES. TEMPS WILL STILL BE
ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH 70S
ALONG THE COASTLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

TONIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER MILD AND MUGGY
NIGHT FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WAA WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WHICH
WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER...ESP FOR THE SOUTH COASTAL REGIONS.
CANNOT RULE OUT ANOTHER ROUND OF MARINE FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE TEMPS
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WITH DEWPOINTS ALSO IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S.

TOMORROW...

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY ALLOW
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. BEST DYNAMICS AND FORCING
WILL BE WELL TO THE WEST OF THE REGION...HOWEVER BECAUSE WE ARE IN A
VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE BULK OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS
WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S...COOLER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

OVERALL UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG EASTERN SEABOARD APPEARS TO
BREAK DOWN SATURDAY...THEN TROUGH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA BEGINS TO
SHIFT E LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE REGION AS IT RUNS PARALLEL TO THE
UPPER FLOW. TIMING ISSUES COME IN PLAY FROM MONDAY ONWARD...
DEPENDING UPON HOW FAR S THE FRONT FINALLY SETTLES WHILE HIGH
PRES BUILDS OUT OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES EASTWARD.

LEANED TOWARD THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE EARLY IN THIS PERIOD THEN
TRANSITIONED OVER THE GEFS AND ECENS GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWED A BIT
BETTER CONTINUITY.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY...HIGH PRES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD PUSHES FURTHER
OFFSHORE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...WITH GOOD SW WIND FLOW AND
INCREASING HUMIDITY MOVING NE INTO THE REGION. MODELS TENDING TO
SLOW THE PROGRESS OF THE APPROACHING FRONT OUT OF WESTERN QUEBEC
AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN AND SHIFTS E. HAVE MENTION
OF CHANCE POPS MOVING INTO WESTERN AREAS DURING SAT AFTERNOON...
THEN SHOULD PUSH SLOWLY SE SAT NIGHT.

GOOD INSTABILITY WITH THIS FRONT AS K INDICES INCREASE TO THE
LOWER-MID 30S. HAVE MENTIONED CHANCE POPS...BUT MENTIONED ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SAT NIGHT. NOTING INCREASING PWATS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AS WELL...UP TO 1.7 INCHES DURING
SAT NIGHT SO COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY
ACTIVITY. WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS REACH AROUND 80 INLAND...BUT ONLY IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST. MAY SEE
SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO AROUND 25-30 MPH ACROSS RI/SE MA SAT
AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

SUNDAY...LOOKS LIKE BEST SHOT OF MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION SUN/SUN NIGHT. CARRYING CAT POPS NEAR/ALONG THE SLOWLY
MOVING FRONT...AS WELL AS SOME SCT THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS INCREASE
TO 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES...SO COULD ALSO SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
AT THIS POINT...THINK THE FRONT WILL PUSH NEAR OR S OF THE MASS
PIKE AROUND SUN NIGHT...BUT WILL TEND TO SLOW DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LOWER THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS
MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO N MA SUN NIGHT...BUT STILL COULD SEE
SPOTTY CONVECTION ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS
GOING THROUGH AROUND 06Z...THEN SLOWLY LOWER ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN AREAS AFTER THAT. PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE
ROUTE 2 AREA BY AROUND SUNRISE MON...BUT TIMING IS STILL IN
QUESTION.

MONDAY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS MOVING THE FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODEL SUITE.
LOOKS LIKE THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP LINGERS THROUGH MON AND EVEN INTO
MON NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA. WINDS DO
START TO SHIFT AROUND TO N-NE ACROSS CENTRAL AND N MA SO THIS WILL
CUT BACK ON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN. FOR
NOW...TEND TO TAPER OFF PRECIP BY MON NIGHT ACROSS MOST
AREAS...BUT DO LINGER IT ALONG THE S COAST THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
60S...AND MAY NOT EVEN BREAK 60 ALONG THE E COAST WITH ONSHORE
WINDS.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...PRECIP SHOULD FINALLY PUSH OFF THE S COAST BY
AROUND MIDDAY TUE AT THE LATEST. NE WINDS PICK UP AS HIGH PRES
CROSSES NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. HAVE CARRIED A
DRY AND SEASONABLE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

BEFORE 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH
OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF FRONT COULD SEE IFR/MVFR STRATUS AND FOG. ALSO
COULD SEE MVFR FOG DEVELOP ACROSS CT VALLEY SITES.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. EXPECT SEA
BREEZES WITH WINDS SHIFTING MAINLY TO THE E LATE IN THE DAY. SOME
PATCHY MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP ALONG SOUTH COAST TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR
CIGS COULD DEVELOP WITHIN -SHRA/-TSRA ACROSS CT VALLEY REGION.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP
BETWEEN 13-15Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING
THE DAY WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS SHIFT TO N-NE
DURING THE DAY...THEN BECOME NE SUN NIGHT WHICH MAY GUST UP TO
AROUND 20 KT ALONG THE S COAST. SHOWERS LINGER SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...SCT SHOWERS LINGERING WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY
BUT WILL IMPROVE FROM N-S DURING THE DAY EXCEPT ALONG THE S COAST
WHERE SHOWERS WILL HANG IN THROUGH SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR
IN ANY SHOWERS THERE SUN NIGHT. NE WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 ACROSS
OUTER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. MAY SEE ISOLD SHOWERS EARLY TUE
ALONG S COAST BUT SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE. NE WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT
STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SOME
STRATUS/FOG IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ON THE SRN WATERS TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
WATERS AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND. SW WINDS MAY GUST
NEAR 25-30 KTS. MAY NEED NEAR SHORE SCA. OTHERWISE SEAS WILL BE
CLOSE TO 5FT AS SOUTHERLY SWELL INCREASES.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE WATERS. MAY SEE BRIEF
GUSTS TO 25 KT AS FRONT PASSES DURING SUNDAY...THEN WILL STALL
NEAR OR JUST S OF THE S COAST SUN NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO E-NE AS
FRONT PASSES. AREAS OF SHOWERS WITH SCT THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL VSBY
RESTRICTIONS.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY NE WINDS. GUSTS TO 25 KT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE.
SEAS BUILD UP TO 6-8 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS TO E OF
CAPE COD...AND UP TO 5 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE
LINGERING SHOWERS DURING MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DUNTEN/EVT
MARINE...DUNTEN/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290531
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
131 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OVERNIGHT. ON FRIDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING A GREATER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY
LINGER NEAR OUR AREA INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

200 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT IS NOW SITUATED ACROSS KSNC THROUGH KPVD INTO KPVC.
THIS FRONT IS STILL SLOW GOING AND WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME WASHED
OUT OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SIGNIFICANT POOLING OF MOISTURE
HAS ALLOWED FOR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH
COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS. VSBYS WILL DROP BETWEEN 2-5 MILES...LOW
CONFIDENCE ON DENSE FOG.

OTHERWISE DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN ACROSS THE REGION AS
DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO DROP INTO THE MID TO LOW 50S. WHERE RAIN
OCCURRED...AND DRY AIR MOVING IN ALOFT COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP
ACROSS VALLEY REGIONS THANKS A MOIST LOW LEVEL INVERSION.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TOMORROW...
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY CREST OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT GRADUALLY
SHIFTING BACK TO THE S...FROM THE NW THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THE
LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT LOCAL SEA BREEZES TO LIMIT DIURNAL TEMP
TRENDS NEAR THE COASTLINES. INLAND HOWEVER...WITH SOME
DOWNSLOPING...CT VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE MID 80S.
MAINLY UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE AWAY FROM THE COAST.

TOMORROW NIGHT...
ALTHOUGH SFC HIGH PRES CENTER WILL BE SHIFTING TO WELL S OF NOVA
SCOTIA...UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THANKS TO STEADY
WARM ADVECTION UPSTREAM. THIS WILL KEEP ANY ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH ANOTHER SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...WELL TO THE W. EXPECT ONLY
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE W OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY CAVEAT MAY
BE NEAR S COASTAL REGIONS...WHERE SLY FLOW AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN
DWPTS COULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LOCALIZED MARINE FOG AND
STRATUS ONCE AGAIN. THIS RISE IN DWPTS WILL ALSO KEEP MINS UP A
BIT...MAINLY DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE COOLEST SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

OVERALL UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG EASTERN SEABOARD APPEARS TO
BREAK DOWN SATURDAY...THEN TROUGH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA BEGINS TO
SHIFT E LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE REGION AS IT RUNS PARALLEL TO THE
UPPER FLOW. TIMING ISSUES COME IN PLAY FROM MONDAY ONWARD...
DEPENDING UPON HOW FAR S THE FRONT FINALLY SETTLES WHILE HIGH
PRES BUILDS OUT OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES EASTWARD.

LEANED TOWARD THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE EARLY IN THIS PERIOD THEN
TRANSITIONED OVER THE GEFS AND ECENS GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWED A BIT
BETTER CONTINUITY.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY...HIGH PRES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD PUSHES FURTHER
OFFSHORE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...WITH GOOD SW WIND FLOW AND
INCREASING HUMIDITY MOVING NE INTO THE REGION. MODELS TENDING TO
SLOW THE PROGRESS OF THE APPROACHING FRONT OUT OF WESTERN QUEBEC
AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN AND SHIFTS E. HAVE MENTION
OF CHANCE POPS MOVING INTO WESTERN AREAS DURING SAT AFTERNOON...
THEN SHOULD PUSH SLOWLY SE SAT NIGHT.

GOOD INSTABILITY WITH THIS FRONT AS K INDICES INCREASE TO THE
LOWER-MID 30S. HAVE MENTIONED CHANCE POPS...BUT MENTIONED ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SAT NIGHT. NOTING INCREASING PWATS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AS WELL...UP TO 1.7 INCHES DURING
SAT NIGHT SO COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY
ACTIVITY. WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS REACH AROUND 80 INLAND...BUT ONLY IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST. MAY SEE
SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO AROUND 25-30 MPH ACROSS RI/SE MA SAT
AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

SUNDAY...LOOKS LIKE BEST SHOT OF MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION SUN/SUN NIGHT. CARRYING CAT POPS NEAR/ALONG THE SLOWLY
MOVING FRONT...AS WELL AS SOME SCT THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS INCREASE
TO 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES...SO COULD ALSO SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
AT THIS POINT...THINK THE FRONT WILL PUSH NEAR OR S OF THE MASS
PIKE AROUND SUN NIGHT...BUT WILL TEND TO SLOW DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LOWER THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS
MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO N MA SUN NIGHT...BUT STILL COULD SEE
SPOTTY CONVECTION ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS
GOING THROUGH AROUND 06Z...THEN SLOWLY LOWER ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN AREAS AFTER THAT. PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE
ROUTE 2 AREA BY AROUND SUNRISE MON...BUT TIMING IS STILL IN
QUESTION.

MONDAY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS MOVING THE FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODEL SUITE.
LOOKS LIKE THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP LINGERS THROUGH MON AND EVEN INTO
MON NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA. WINDS DO
START TO SHIFT AROUND TO N-NE ACROSS CENTRAL AND N MA SO THIS WILL
CUT BACK ON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN. FOR
NOW...TEND TO TAPER OFF PRECIP BY MON NIGHT ACROSS MOST
AREAS...BUT DO LINGER IT ALONG THE S COAST THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
60S...AND MAY NOT EVEN BREAK 60 ALONG THE E COAST WITH ONSHORE
WINDS.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...PRECIP SHOULD FINALLY PUSH OFF THE S COAST BY
AROUND MIDDAY TUE AT THE LATEST. NE WINDS PICK UP AS HIGH PRES
CROSSES NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. HAVE CARRIED A
DRY AND SEASONABLE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

BEFORE 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH
OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF FRONT COULD SEE IFR/MVFR STRATUS AND FOG. ALSO
COULD SEE MVFR FOG DEVELOP ACROSS CT VALLEY SITES.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. EXPECT SEA
BREEZES WITH WINDS SHIFTING MAINLY TO THE E LATE IN THE DAY. SOME
PATCHY MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP ALONG SOUTH COAST TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR
CIGS COULD DEVELOP WITHIN -SHRA/-TSRA ACROSS CT VALLEY REGION.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP
BETWEEN 13-15Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING
THE DAY WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS SHIFT TO N-NE
DURING THE DAY...THEN BECOME NE SUN NIGHT WHICH MAY GUST UP TO
AROUND 20 KT ALONG THE S COAST. SHOWERS LINGER SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...SCT SHOWERS LINGERING WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY
BUT WILL IMPROVE FROM N-S DURING THE DAY EXCEPT ALONG THE S COAST
WHERE SHOWERS WILL HANG IN THROUGH SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR
IN ANY SHOWERS THERE SUN NIGHT. NE WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 ACROSS
OUTER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. MAY SEE ISOLD SHOWERS EARLY TUE
ALONG S COAST BUT SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE. NE WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT
STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT HAVE DROPPED OFF AND SEAS ARE BELOW 5FT.
HAVE DROPPED THE SCA.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SOME STRATUS/FOG IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ON THE SRN
WATERS TOMORROW NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...SW WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST UP TO 25 KT ACROSS THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS...AND POSSIBLY ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS SAT
AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT ON ALL THE OUTER WATERS...
POSSIBLY INTO RI AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING SAT NIGHT. VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN PATCHY FOG ALONG S COASTAL
WATERS EARLY...THEN SHOULD IMPROVE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE WATERS. MAY SEE BRIEF
GUSTS TO 25 KT AS FRONT PASSES DURING SUNDAY...THEN WILL STALL
NEAR OR JUST S OF THE S COAST SUN NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO E-NE AS
FRONT PASSES. AREAS OF SHOWERS WITH SCT THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL VSBY
RESTRICTIONS.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY NE WINDS. GUSTS TO 25 KT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE.
SEAS BUILD UP TO 6-8 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS TO E OF
CAPE COD...AND UP TO 5 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE
LINGERING SHOWERS DURING MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DUNTEN/EVT
MARINE...DOODY/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 290531
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
131 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OVERNIGHT. ON FRIDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING A GREATER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY
LINGER NEAR OUR AREA INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

200 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT IS NOW SITUATED ACROSS KSNC THROUGH KPVD INTO KPVC.
THIS FRONT IS STILL SLOW GOING AND WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME WASHED
OUT OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SIGNIFICANT POOLING OF MOISTURE
HAS ALLOWED FOR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH
COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS. VSBYS WILL DROP BETWEEN 2-5 MILES...LOW
CONFIDENCE ON DENSE FOG.

OTHERWISE DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN ACROSS THE REGION AS
DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO DROP INTO THE MID TO LOW 50S. WHERE RAIN
OCCURRED...AND DRY AIR MOVING IN ALOFT COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP
ACROSS VALLEY REGIONS THANKS A MOIST LOW LEVEL INVERSION.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TOMORROW...
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY CREST OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT GRADUALLY
SHIFTING BACK TO THE S...FROM THE NW THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THE
LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT LOCAL SEA BREEZES TO LIMIT DIURNAL TEMP
TRENDS NEAR THE COASTLINES. INLAND HOWEVER...WITH SOME
DOWNSLOPING...CT VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE MID 80S.
MAINLY UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE AWAY FROM THE COAST.

TOMORROW NIGHT...
ALTHOUGH SFC HIGH PRES CENTER WILL BE SHIFTING TO WELL S OF NOVA
SCOTIA...UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THANKS TO STEADY
WARM ADVECTION UPSTREAM. THIS WILL KEEP ANY ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH ANOTHER SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...WELL TO THE W. EXPECT ONLY
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE W OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY CAVEAT MAY
BE NEAR S COASTAL REGIONS...WHERE SLY FLOW AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN
DWPTS COULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LOCALIZED MARINE FOG AND
STRATUS ONCE AGAIN. THIS RISE IN DWPTS WILL ALSO KEEP MINS UP A
BIT...MAINLY DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE COOLEST SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

OVERALL UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG EASTERN SEABOARD APPEARS TO
BREAK DOWN SATURDAY...THEN TROUGH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA BEGINS TO
SHIFT E LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE REGION AS IT RUNS PARALLEL TO THE
UPPER FLOW. TIMING ISSUES COME IN PLAY FROM MONDAY ONWARD...
DEPENDING UPON HOW FAR S THE FRONT FINALLY SETTLES WHILE HIGH
PRES BUILDS OUT OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES EASTWARD.

LEANED TOWARD THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE EARLY IN THIS PERIOD THEN
TRANSITIONED OVER THE GEFS AND ECENS GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWED A BIT
BETTER CONTINUITY.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY...HIGH PRES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD PUSHES FURTHER
OFFSHORE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...WITH GOOD SW WIND FLOW AND
INCREASING HUMIDITY MOVING NE INTO THE REGION. MODELS TENDING TO
SLOW THE PROGRESS OF THE APPROACHING FRONT OUT OF WESTERN QUEBEC
AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN AND SHIFTS E. HAVE MENTION
OF CHANCE POPS MOVING INTO WESTERN AREAS DURING SAT AFTERNOON...
THEN SHOULD PUSH SLOWLY SE SAT NIGHT.

GOOD INSTABILITY WITH THIS FRONT AS K INDICES INCREASE TO THE
LOWER-MID 30S. HAVE MENTIONED CHANCE POPS...BUT MENTIONED ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SAT NIGHT. NOTING INCREASING PWATS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AS WELL...UP TO 1.7 INCHES DURING
SAT NIGHT SO COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY
ACTIVITY. WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS REACH AROUND 80 INLAND...BUT ONLY IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST. MAY SEE
SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO AROUND 25-30 MPH ACROSS RI/SE MA SAT
AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

SUNDAY...LOOKS LIKE BEST SHOT OF MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION SUN/SUN NIGHT. CARRYING CAT POPS NEAR/ALONG THE SLOWLY
MOVING FRONT...AS WELL AS SOME SCT THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS INCREASE
TO 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES...SO COULD ALSO SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
AT THIS POINT...THINK THE FRONT WILL PUSH NEAR OR S OF THE MASS
PIKE AROUND SUN NIGHT...BUT WILL TEND TO SLOW DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LOWER THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS
MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO N MA SUN NIGHT...BUT STILL COULD SEE
SPOTTY CONVECTION ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS
GOING THROUGH AROUND 06Z...THEN SLOWLY LOWER ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN AREAS AFTER THAT. PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE
ROUTE 2 AREA BY AROUND SUNRISE MON...BUT TIMING IS STILL IN
QUESTION.

MONDAY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS MOVING THE FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODEL SUITE.
LOOKS LIKE THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP LINGERS THROUGH MON AND EVEN INTO
MON NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA. WINDS DO
START TO SHIFT AROUND TO N-NE ACROSS CENTRAL AND N MA SO THIS WILL
CUT BACK ON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN. FOR
NOW...TEND TO TAPER OFF PRECIP BY MON NIGHT ACROSS MOST
AREAS...BUT DO LINGER IT ALONG THE S COAST THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
60S...AND MAY NOT EVEN BREAK 60 ALONG THE E COAST WITH ONSHORE
WINDS.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...PRECIP SHOULD FINALLY PUSH OFF THE S COAST BY
AROUND MIDDAY TUE AT THE LATEST. NE WINDS PICK UP AS HIGH PRES
CROSSES NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. HAVE CARRIED A
DRY AND SEASONABLE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

BEFORE 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH
OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF FRONT COULD SEE IFR/MVFR STRATUS AND FOG. ALSO
COULD SEE MVFR FOG DEVELOP ACROSS CT VALLEY SITES.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. EXPECT SEA
BREEZES WITH WINDS SHIFTING MAINLY TO THE E LATE IN THE DAY. SOME
PATCHY MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP ALONG SOUTH COAST TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR
CIGS COULD DEVELOP WITHIN -SHRA/-TSRA ACROSS CT VALLEY REGION.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP
BETWEEN 13-15Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING
THE DAY WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS SHIFT TO N-NE
DURING THE DAY...THEN BECOME NE SUN NIGHT WHICH MAY GUST UP TO
AROUND 20 KT ALONG THE S COAST. SHOWERS LINGER SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...SCT SHOWERS LINGERING WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY
BUT WILL IMPROVE FROM N-S DURING THE DAY EXCEPT ALONG THE S COAST
WHERE SHOWERS WILL HANG IN THROUGH SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR
IN ANY SHOWERS THERE SUN NIGHT. NE WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 ACROSS
OUTER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. MAY SEE ISOLD SHOWERS EARLY TUE
ALONG S COAST BUT SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE. NE WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT
STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT HAVE DROPPED OFF AND SEAS ARE BELOW 5FT.
HAVE DROPPED THE SCA.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SOME STRATUS/FOG IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ON THE SRN
WATERS TOMORROW NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...SW WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST UP TO 25 KT ACROSS THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS...AND POSSIBLY ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS SAT
AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT ON ALL THE OUTER WATERS...
POSSIBLY INTO RI AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING SAT NIGHT. VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN PATCHY FOG ALONG S COASTAL
WATERS EARLY...THEN SHOULD IMPROVE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE WATERS. MAY SEE BRIEF
GUSTS TO 25 KT AS FRONT PASSES DURING SUNDAY...THEN WILL STALL
NEAR OR JUST S OF THE S COAST SUN NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO E-NE AS
FRONT PASSES. AREAS OF SHOWERS WITH SCT THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL VSBY
RESTRICTIONS.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY NE WINDS. GUSTS TO 25 KT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE.
SEAS BUILD UP TO 6-8 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS TO E OF
CAPE COD...AND UP TO 5 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE
LINGERING SHOWERS DURING MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DUNTEN/EVT
MARINE...DOODY/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 290531
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
131 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OVERNIGHT. ON FRIDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING A GREATER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY
LINGER NEAR OUR AREA INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

200 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT IS NOW SITUATED ACROSS KSNC THROUGH KPVD INTO KPVC.
THIS FRONT IS STILL SLOW GOING AND WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME WASHED
OUT OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SIGNIFICANT POOLING OF MOISTURE
HAS ALLOWED FOR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH
COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS. VSBYS WILL DROP BETWEEN 2-5 MILES...LOW
CONFIDENCE ON DENSE FOG.

OTHERWISE DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN ACROSS THE REGION AS
DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO DROP INTO THE MID TO LOW 50S. WHERE RAIN
OCCURRED...AND DRY AIR MOVING IN ALOFT COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP
ACROSS VALLEY REGIONS THANKS A MOIST LOW LEVEL INVERSION.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TOMORROW...
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY CREST OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT GRADUALLY
SHIFTING BACK TO THE S...FROM THE NW THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THE
LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT LOCAL SEA BREEZES TO LIMIT DIURNAL TEMP
TRENDS NEAR THE COASTLINES. INLAND HOWEVER...WITH SOME
DOWNSLOPING...CT VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE MID 80S.
MAINLY UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE AWAY FROM THE COAST.

TOMORROW NIGHT...
ALTHOUGH SFC HIGH PRES CENTER WILL BE SHIFTING TO WELL S OF NOVA
SCOTIA...UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THANKS TO STEADY
WARM ADVECTION UPSTREAM. THIS WILL KEEP ANY ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH ANOTHER SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...WELL TO THE W. EXPECT ONLY
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE W OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY CAVEAT MAY
BE NEAR S COASTAL REGIONS...WHERE SLY FLOW AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN
DWPTS COULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LOCALIZED MARINE FOG AND
STRATUS ONCE AGAIN. THIS RISE IN DWPTS WILL ALSO KEEP MINS UP A
BIT...MAINLY DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE COOLEST SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

OVERALL UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG EASTERN SEABOARD APPEARS TO
BREAK DOWN SATURDAY...THEN TROUGH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA BEGINS TO
SHIFT E LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE REGION AS IT RUNS PARALLEL TO THE
UPPER FLOW. TIMING ISSUES COME IN PLAY FROM MONDAY ONWARD...
DEPENDING UPON HOW FAR S THE FRONT FINALLY SETTLES WHILE HIGH
PRES BUILDS OUT OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES EASTWARD.

LEANED TOWARD THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE EARLY IN THIS PERIOD THEN
TRANSITIONED OVER THE GEFS AND ECENS GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWED A BIT
BETTER CONTINUITY.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY...HIGH PRES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD PUSHES FURTHER
OFFSHORE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...WITH GOOD SW WIND FLOW AND
INCREASING HUMIDITY MOVING NE INTO THE REGION. MODELS TENDING TO
SLOW THE PROGRESS OF THE APPROACHING FRONT OUT OF WESTERN QUEBEC
AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN AND SHIFTS E. HAVE MENTION
OF CHANCE POPS MOVING INTO WESTERN AREAS DURING SAT AFTERNOON...
THEN SHOULD PUSH SLOWLY SE SAT NIGHT.

GOOD INSTABILITY WITH THIS FRONT AS K INDICES INCREASE TO THE
LOWER-MID 30S. HAVE MENTIONED CHANCE POPS...BUT MENTIONED ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SAT NIGHT. NOTING INCREASING PWATS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AS WELL...UP TO 1.7 INCHES DURING
SAT NIGHT SO COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY
ACTIVITY. WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS REACH AROUND 80 INLAND...BUT ONLY IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST. MAY SEE
SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO AROUND 25-30 MPH ACROSS RI/SE MA SAT
AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

SUNDAY...LOOKS LIKE BEST SHOT OF MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION SUN/SUN NIGHT. CARRYING CAT POPS NEAR/ALONG THE SLOWLY
MOVING FRONT...AS WELL AS SOME SCT THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS INCREASE
TO 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES...SO COULD ALSO SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
AT THIS POINT...THINK THE FRONT WILL PUSH NEAR OR S OF THE MASS
PIKE AROUND SUN NIGHT...BUT WILL TEND TO SLOW DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LOWER THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS
MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO N MA SUN NIGHT...BUT STILL COULD SEE
SPOTTY CONVECTION ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS
GOING THROUGH AROUND 06Z...THEN SLOWLY LOWER ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN AREAS AFTER THAT. PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE
ROUTE 2 AREA BY AROUND SUNRISE MON...BUT TIMING IS STILL IN
QUESTION.

MONDAY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS MOVING THE FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODEL SUITE.
LOOKS LIKE THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP LINGERS THROUGH MON AND EVEN INTO
MON NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA. WINDS DO
START TO SHIFT AROUND TO N-NE ACROSS CENTRAL AND N MA SO THIS WILL
CUT BACK ON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN. FOR
NOW...TEND TO TAPER OFF PRECIP BY MON NIGHT ACROSS MOST
AREAS...BUT DO LINGER IT ALONG THE S COAST THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
60S...AND MAY NOT EVEN BREAK 60 ALONG THE E COAST WITH ONSHORE
WINDS.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...PRECIP SHOULD FINALLY PUSH OFF THE S COAST BY
AROUND MIDDAY TUE AT THE LATEST. NE WINDS PICK UP AS HIGH PRES
CROSSES NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. HAVE CARRIED A
DRY AND SEASONABLE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

BEFORE 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH
OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF FRONT COULD SEE IFR/MVFR STRATUS AND FOG. ALSO
COULD SEE MVFR FOG DEVELOP ACROSS CT VALLEY SITES.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. EXPECT SEA
BREEZES WITH WINDS SHIFTING MAINLY TO THE E LATE IN THE DAY. SOME
PATCHY MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP ALONG SOUTH COAST TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR
CIGS COULD DEVELOP WITHIN -SHRA/-TSRA ACROSS CT VALLEY REGION.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP
BETWEEN 13-15Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING
THE DAY WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS SHIFT TO N-NE
DURING THE DAY...THEN BECOME NE SUN NIGHT WHICH MAY GUST UP TO
AROUND 20 KT ALONG THE S COAST. SHOWERS LINGER SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...SCT SHOWERS LINGERING WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY
BUT WILL IMPROVE FROM N-S DURING THE DAY EXCEPT ALONG THE S COAST
WHERE SHOWERS WILL HANG IN THROUGH SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR
IN ANY SHOWERS THERE SUN NIGHT. NE WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 ACROSS
OUTER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. MAY SEE ISOLD SHOWERS EARLY TUE
ALONG S COAST BUT SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE. NE WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT
STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT HAVE DROPPED OFF AND SEAS ARE BELOW 5FT.
HAVE DROPPED THE SCA.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SOME STRATUS/FOG IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ON THE SRN
WATERS TOMORROW NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...SW WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST UP TO 25 KT ACROSS THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS...AND POSSIBLY ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS SAT
AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT ON ALL THE OUTER WATERS...
POSSIBLY INTO RI AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING SAT NIGHT. VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN PATCHY FOG ALONG S COASTAL
WATERS EARLY...THEN SHOULD IMPROVE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE WATERS. MAY SEE BRIEF
GUSTS TO 25 KT AS FRONT PASSES DURING SUNDAY...THEN WILL STALL
NEAR OR JUST S OF THE S COAST SUN NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO E-NE AS
FRONT PASSES. AREAS OF SHOWERS WITH SCT THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL VSBY
RESTRICTIONS.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY NE WINDS. GUSTS TO 25 KT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE.
SEAS BUILD UP TO 6-8 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS TO E OF
CAPE COD...AND UP TO 5 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE
LINGERING SHOWERS DURING MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DUNTEN/EVT
MARINE...DOODY/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 290531
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
131 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OVERNIGHT. ON FRIDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING A GREATER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY
LINGER NEAR OUR AREA INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

200 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT IS NOW SITUATED ACROSS KSNC THROUGH KPVD INTO KPVC.
THIS FRONT IS STILL SLOW GOING AND WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME WASHED
OUT OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SIGNIFICANT POOLING OF MOISTURE
HAS ALLOWED FOR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH
COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS. VSBYS WILL DROP BETWEEN 2-5 MILES...LOW
CONFIDENCE ON DENSE FOG.

OTHERWISE DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN ACROSS THE REGION AS
DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO DROP INTO THE MID TO LOW 50S. WHERE RAIN
OCCURRED...AND DRY AIR MOVING IN ALOFT COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP
ACROSS VALLEY REGIONS THANKS A MOIST LOW LEVEL INVERSION.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TOMORROW...
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY CREST OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT GRADUALLY
SHIFTING BACK TO THE S...FROM THE NW THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THE
LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT LOCAL SEA BREEZES TO LIMIT DIURNAL TEMP
TRENDS NEAR THE COASTLINES. INLAND HOWEVER...WITH SOME
DOWNSLOPING...CT VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE MID 80S.
MAINLY UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE AWAY FROM THE COAST.

TOMORROW NIGHT...
ALTHOUGH SFC HIGH PRES CENTER WILL BE SHIFTING TO WELL S OF NOVA
SCOTIA...UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THANKS TO STEADY
WARM ADVECTION UPSTREAM. THIS WILL KEEP ANY ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH ANOTHER SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...WELL TO THE W. EXPECT ONLY
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE W OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY CAVEAT MAY
BE NEAR S COASTAL REGIONS...WHERE SLY FLOW AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN
DWPTS COULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LOCALIZED MARINE FOG AND
STRATUS ONCE AGAIN. THIS RISE IN DWPTS WILL ALSO KEEP MINS UP A
BIT...MAINLY DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE COOLEST SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

OVERALL UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG EASTERN SEABOARD APPEARS TO
BREAK DOWN SATURDAY...THEN TROUGH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA BEGINS TO
SHIFT E LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE REGION AS IT RUNS PARALLEL TO THE
UPPER FLOW. TIMING ISSUES COME IN PLAY FROM MONDAY ONWARD...
DEPENDING UPON HOW FAR S THE FRONT FINALLY SETTLES WHILE HIGH
PRES BUILDS OUT OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES EASTWARD.

LEANED TOWARD THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE EARLY IN THIS PERIOD THEN
TRANSITIONED OVER THE GEFS AND ECENS GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWED A BIT
BETTER CONTINUITY.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY...HIGH PRES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD PUSHES FURTHER
OFFSHORE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...WITH GOOD SW WIND FLOW AND
INCREASING HUMIDITY MOVING NE INTO THE REGION. MODELS TENDING TO
SLOW THE PROGRESS OF THE APPROACHING FRONT OUT OF WESTERN QUEBEC
AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN AND SHIFTS E. HAVE MENTION
OF CHANCE POPS MOVING INTO WESTERN AREAS DURING SAT AFTERNOON...
THEN SHOULD PUSH SLOWLY SE SAT NIGHT.

GOOD INSTABILITY WITH THIS FRONT AS K INDICES INCREASE TO THE
LOWER-MID 30S. HAVE MENTIONED CHANCE POPS...BUT MENTIONED ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SAT NIGHT. NOTING INCREASING PWATS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AS WELL...UP TO 1.7 INCHES DURING
SAT NIGHT SO COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY
ACTIVITY. WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS REACH AROUND 80 INLAND...BUT ONLY IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST. MAY SEE
SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO AROUND 25-30 MPH ACROSS RI/SE MA SAT
AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

SUNDAY...LOOKS LIKE BEST SHOT OF MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION SUN/SUN NIGHT. CARRYING CAT POPS NEAR/ALONG THE SLOWLY
MOVING FRONT...AS WELL AS SOME SCT THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS INCREASE
TO 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES...SO COULD ALSO SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
AT THIS POINT...THINK THE FRONT WILL PUSH NEAR OR S OF THE MASS
PIKE AROUND SUN NIGHT...BUT WILL TEND TO SLOW DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LOWER THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS
MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO N MA SUN NIGHT...BUT STILL COULD SEE
SPOTTY CONVECTION ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS
GOING THROUGH AROUND 06Z...THEN SLOWLY LOWER ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN AREAS AFTER THAT. PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE
ROUTE 2 AREA BY AROUND SUNRISE MON...BUT TIMING IS STILL IN
QUESTION.

MONDAY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS MOVING THE FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODEL SUITE.
LOOKS LIKE THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP LINGERS THROUGH MON AND EVEN INTO
MON NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA. WINDS DO
START TO SHIFT AROUND TO N-NE ACROSS CENTRAL AND N MA SO THIS WILL
CUT BACK ON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN. FOR
NOW...TEND TO TAPER OFF PRECIP BY MON NIGHT ACROSS MOST
AREAS...BUT DO LINGER IT ALONG THE S COAST THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
60S...AND MAY NOT EVEN BREAK 60 ALONG THE E COAST WITH ONSHORE
WINDS.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...PRECIP SHOULD FINALLY PUSH OFF THE S COAST BY
AROUND MIDDAY TUE AT THE LATEST. NE WINDS PICK UP AS HIGH PRES
CROSSES NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. HAVE CARRIED A
DRY AND SEASONABLE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

BEFORE 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH
OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF FRONT COULD SEE IFR/MVFR STRATUS AND FOG. ALSO
COULD SEE MVFR FOG DEVELOP ACROSS CT VALLEY SITES.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. EXPECT SEA
BREEZES WITH WINDS SHIFTING MAINLY TO THE E LATE IN THE DAY. SOME
PATCHY MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP ALONG SOUTH COAST TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR
CIGS COULD DEVELOP WITHIN -SHRA/-TSRA ACROSS CT VALLEY REGION.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP
BETWEEN 13-15Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING
THE DAY WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS SHIFT TO N-NE
DURING THE DAY...THEN BECOME NE SUN NIGHT WHICH MAY GUST UP TO
AROUND 20 KT ALONG THE S COAST. SHOWERS LINGER SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...SCT SHOWERS LINGERING WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY
BUT WILL IMPROVE FROM N-S DURING THE DAY EXCEPT ALONG THE S COAST
WHERE SHOWERS WILL HANG IN THROUGH SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR
IN ANY SHOWERS THERE SUN NIGHT. NE WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 ACROSS
OUTER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. MAY SEE ISOLD SHOWERS EARLY TUE
ALONG S COAST BUT SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE. NE WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT
STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT HAVE DROPPED OFF AND SEAS ARE BELOW 5FT.
HAVE DROPPED THE SCA.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SOME STRATUS/FOG IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ON THE SRN
WATERS TOMORROW NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...SW WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST UP TO 25 KT ACROSS THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS...AND POSSIBLY ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS SAT
AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT ON ALL THE OUTER WATERS...
POSSIBLY INTO RI AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING SAT NIGHT. VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN PATCHY FOG ALONG S COASTAL
WATERS EARLY...THEN SHOULD IMPROVE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE WATERS. MAY SEE BRIEF
GUSTS TO 25 KT AS FRONT PASSES DURING SUNDAY...THEN WILL STALL
NEAR OR JUST S OF THE S COAST SUN NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO E-NE AS
FRONT PASSES. AREAS OF SHOWERS WITH SCT THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL VSBY
RESTRICTIONS.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY NE WINDS. GUSTS TO 25 KT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE.
SEAS BUILD UP TO 6-8 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS TO E OF
CAPE COD...AND UP TO 5 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE
LINGERING SHOWERS DURING MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DUNTEN/EVT
MARINE...DOODY/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 290531
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
131 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OVERNIGHT. ON FRIDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING A GREATER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY
LINGER NEAR OUR AREA INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

200 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT IS NOW SITUATED ACROSS KSNC THROUGH KPVD INTO KPVC.
THIS FRONT IS STILL SLOW GOING AND WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME WASHED
OUT OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SIGNIFICANT POOLING OF MOISTURE
HAS ALLOWED FOR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH
COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS. VSBYS WILL DROP BETWEEN 2-5 MILES...LOW
CONFIDENCE ON DENSE FOG.

OTHERWISE DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN ACROSS THE REGION AS
DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO DROP INTO THE MID TO LOW 50S. WHERE RAIN
OCCURRED...AND DRY AIR MOVING IN ALOFT COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP
ACROSS VALLEY REGIONS THANKS A MOIST LOW LEVEL INVERSION.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TOMORROW...
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY CREST OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT GRADUALLY
SHIFTING BACK TO THE S...FROM THE NW THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THE
LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT LOCAL SEA BREEZES TO LIMIT DIURNAL TEMP
TRENDS NEAR THE COASTLINES. INLAND HOWEVER...WITH SOME
DOWNSLOPING...CT VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE MID 80S.
MAINLY UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE AWAY FROM THE COAST.

TOMORROW NIGHT...
ALTHOUGH SFC HIGH PRES CENTER WILL BE SHIFTING TO WELL S OF NOVA
SCOTIA...UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THANKS TO STEADY
WARM ADVECTION UPSTREAM. THIS WILL KEEP ANY ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH ANOTHER SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...WELL TO THE W. EXPECT ONLY
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE W OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY CAVEAT MAY
BE NEAR S COASTAL REGIONS...WHERE SLY FLOW AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN
DWPTS COULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LOCALIZED MARINE FOG AND
STRATUS ONCE AGAIN. THIS RISE IN DWPTS WILL ALSO KEEP MINS UP A
BIT...MAINLY DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE COOLEST SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

OVERALL UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG EASTERN SEABOARD APPEARS TO
BREAK DOWN SATURDAY...THEN TROUGH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA BEGINS TO
SHIFT E LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE REGION AS IT RUNS PARALLEL TO THE
UPPER FLOW. TIMING ISSUES COME IN PLAY FROM MONDAY ONWARD...
DEPENDING UPON HOW FAR S THE FRONT FINALLY SETTLES WHILE HIGH
PRES BUILDS OUT OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES EASTWARD.

LEANED TOWARD THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE EARLY IN THIS PERIOD THEN
TRANSITIONED OVER THE GEFS AND ECENS GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWED A BIT
BETTER CONTINUITY.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY...HIGH PRES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD PUSHES FURTHER
OFFSHORE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...WITH GOOD SW WIND FLOW AND
INCREASING HUMIDITY MOVING NE INTO THE REGION. MODELS TENDING TO
SLOW THE PROGRESS OF THE APPROACHING FRONT OUT OF WESTERN QUEBEC
AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN AND SHIFTS E. HAVE MENTION
OF CHANCE POPS MOVING INTO WESTERN AREAS DURING SAT AFTERNOON...
THEN SHOULD PUSH SLOWLY SE SAT NIGHT.

GOOD INSTABILITY WITH THIS FRONT AS K INDICES INCREASE TO THE
LOWER-MID 30S. HAVE MENTIONED CHANCE POPS...BUT MENTIONED ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SAT NIGHT. NOTING INCREASING PWATS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AS WELL...UP TO 1.7 INCHES DURING
SAT NIGHT SO COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY
ACTIVITY. WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS REACH AROUND 80 INLAND...BUT ONLY IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST. MAY SEE
SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO AROUND 25-30 MPH ACROSS RI/SE MA SAT
AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

SUNDAY...LOOKS LIKE BEST SHOT OF MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION SUN/SUN NIGHT. CARRYING CAT POPS NEAR/ALONG THE SLOWLY
MOVING FRONT...AS WELL AS SOME SCT THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS INCREASE
TO 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES...SO COULD ALSO SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
AT THIS POINT...THINK THE FRONT WILL PUSH NEAR OR S OF THE MASS
PIKE AROUND SUN NIGHT...BUT WILL TEND TO SLOW DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LOWER THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS
MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO N MA SUN NIGHT...BUT STILL COULD SEE
SPOTTY CONVECTION ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS
GOING THROUGH AROUND 06Z...THEN SLOWLY LOWER ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN AREAS AFTER THAT. PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE
ROUTE 2 AREA BY AROUND SUNRISE MON...BUT TIMING IS STILL IN
QUESTION.

MONDAY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS MOVING THE FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODEL SUITE.
LOOKS LIKE THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP LINGERS THROUGH MON AND EVEN INTO
MON NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA. WINDS DO
START TO SHIFT AROUND TO N-NE ACROSS CENTRAL AND N MA SO THIS WILL
CUT BACK ON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN. FOR
NOW...TEND TO TAPER OFF PRECIP BY MON NIGHT ACROSS MOST
AREAS...BUT DO LINGER IT ALONG THE S COAST THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
60S...AND MAY NOT EVEN BREAK 60 ALONG THE E COAST WITH ONSHORE
WINDS.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...PRECIP SHOULD FINALLY PUSH OFF THE S COAST BY
AROUND MIDDAY TUE AT THE LATEST. NE WINDS PICK UP AS HIGH PRES
CROSSES NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. HAVE CARRIED A
DRY AND SEASONABLE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

BEFORE 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH
OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF FRONT COULD SEE IFR/MVFR STRATUS AND FOG. ALSO
COULD SEE MVFR FOG DEVELOP ACROSS CT VALLEY SITES.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. EXPECT SEA
BREEZES WITH WINDS SHIFTING MAINLY TO THE E LATE IN THE DAY. SOME
PATCHY MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP ALONG SOUTH COAST TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR
CIGS COULD DEVELOP WITHIN -SHRA/-TSRA ACROSS CT VALLEY REGION.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP
BETWEEN 13-15Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING
THE DAY WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS SHIFT TO N-NE
DURING THE DAY...THEN BECOME NE SUN NIGHT WHICH MAY GUST UP TO
AROUND 20 KT ALONG THE S COAST. SHOWERS LINGER SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...SCT SHOWERS LINGERING WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY
BUT WILL IMPROVE FROM N-S DURING THE DAY EXCEPT ALONG THE S COAST
WHERE SHOWERS WILL HANG IN THROUGH SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR
IN ANY SHOWERS THERE SUN NIGHT. NE WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 ACROSS
OUTER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. MAY SEE ISOLD SHOWERS EARLY TUE
ALONG S COAST BUT SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE. NE WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT
STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT HAVE DROPPED OFF AND SEAS ARE BELOW 5FT.
HAVE DROPPED THE SCA.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SOME STRATUS/FOG IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ON THE SRN
WATERS TOMORROW NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...SW WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST UP TO 25 KT ACROSS THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS...AND POSSIBLY ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS SAT
AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT ON ALL THE OUTER WATERS...
POSSIBLY INTO RI AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING SAT NIGHT. VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN PATCHY FOG ALONG S COASTAL
WATERS EARLY...THEN SHOULD IMPROVE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE WATERS. MAY SEE BRIEF
GUSTS TO 25 KT AS FRONT PASSES DURING SUNDAY...THEN WILL STALL
NEAR OR JUST S OF THE S COAST SUN NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO E-NE AS
FRONT PASSES. AREAS OF SHOWERS WITH SCT THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL VSBY
RESTRICTIONS.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY NE WINDS. GUSTS TO 25 KT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE.
SEAS BUILD UP TO 6-8 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS TO E OF
CAPE COD...AND UP TO 5 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE
LINGERING SHOWERS DURING MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DUNTEN/EVT
MARINE...DOODY/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 290208
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1008 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OVERNIGHT. ON FRIDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING A GREATER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY
LINGER NEAR OUR AREA INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

1000 PM UPDATE...

PRECIP HAS FINALLY COME TO AN END ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. MAY SEE A LONE POP-UP SHOWERS ACROSS THE
WATERS OVERNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS IJD TO GHG AND IS SLOWLY MOVING
SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT IS REALLY LOSING ITS PUNCH AS UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE HAS ALREADY PASSED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION
EARLIER TODAY. ANTICIPATE THE FRONT TO STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST OR JUST SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
MAY STILL SEE SOME PATCH FOG AS PREV FORECASTER MENTIONED BUT BULK
OF THE FORECAST STILL REMAINS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAY SEE A LITTLE BIT OF TRAPPED MOISTURE BENEATH THE BUILDING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION/DRYING ALOFT. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY
GROUND FOG PARTICULARLY AREAS WHERE ANY HEAVIER RAIN FELL IN
STORMS AND/OR NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OVERNIGHT. HAVE PATCHY FOG IN
THE FORECAST. DEWPTS WILL BE DROPPING...BUT LEFTOVER CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS AND THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT WILL PREVENT
TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY FALLING OFF THE TABLE. EXPECT MINS MAINLY IN
THE MID-UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY CREST OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT GRADUALLY
SHIFTING BACK TO THE S...FROM THE NW THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THE
LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT LOCAL SEA BREEZES TO LIMIT DIURNAL TEMP
TRENDS NEAR THE COASTLINES. INLAND HOWEVER...WITH SOME
DOWNSLOPING...CT VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE MID 80S.
MAINLY UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE AWAY FROM THE COAST.

TOMORROW NIGHT...
ALTHOUGH SFC HIGH PRES CENTER WILL BE SHIFTING TO WELL S OF NOVA
SCOTIA...UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THANKS TO STEADY
WARM ADVECTION UPSTREAM. THIS WILL KEEP ANY ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH ANOTHER SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...WELL TO THE W. EXPECT ONLY
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE W OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY CAVEAT MAY
BE NEAR S COASTAL REGIONS...WHERE SLY FLOW AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN
DWPTS COULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LOCALIZED MARINE FOG AND
STRATUS ONCE AGAIN. THIS RISE IN DWPTS WILL ALSO KEEP MINS UP A
BIT...MAINLY DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE COOLEST SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

OVERALL UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG EASTERN SEABOARD APPEARS TO
BREAK DOWN SATURDAY...THEN TROUGH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA BEGINS TO
SHIFT E LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE REGION AS IT RUNS PARALLEL TO THE
UPPER FLOW. TIMING ISSUES COME IN PLAY FROM MONDAY ONWARD...
DEPENDING UPON HOW FAR S THE FRONT FINALLY SETTLES WHILE HIGH
PRES BUILDS OUT OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES EASTWARD.

LEANED TOWARD THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE EARLY IN THIS PERIOD THEN
TRANSITIONED OVER THE GEFS AND ECENS GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWED A BIT
BETTER CONTINUITY.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY...HIGH PRES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD PUSHES FURTHER
OFFSHORE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...WITH GOOD SW WIND FLOW AND
INCREASING HUMIDITY MOVING NE INTO THE REGION. MODELS TENDING TO
SLOW THE PROGRESS OF THE APPROACHING FRONT OUT OF WESTERN QUEBEC
AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN AND SHIFTS E. HAVE MENTION
OF CHANCE POPS MOVING INTO WESTERN AREAS DURING SAT AFTERNOON...
THEN SHOULD PUSH SLOWLY SE SAT NIGHT.

GOOD INSTABILITY WITH THIS FRONT AS K INDICES INCREASE TO THE
LOWER-MID 30S. HAVE MENTIONED CHANCE POPS...BUT MENTIONED ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SAT NIGHT. NOTING INCREASING PWATS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AS WELL...UP TO 1.7 INCHES DURING
SAT NIGHT SO COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY
ACTIVITY. WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS REACH AROUND 80 INLAND...BUT ONLY IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST. MAY SEE
SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO AROUND 25-30 MPH ACROSS RI/SE MA SAT
AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

SUNDAY...LOOKS LIKE BEST SHOT OF MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION SUN/SUN NIGHT. CARRYING CAT POPS NEAR/ALONG THE SLOWLY
MOVING FRONT...AS WELL AS SOME SCT THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS INCREASE
TO 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES...SO COULD ALSO SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
AT THIS POINT...THINK THE FRONT WILL PUSH NEAR OR S OF THE MASS
PIKE AROUND SUN NIGHT...BUT WILL TEND TO SLOW DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LOWER THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS
MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO N MA SUN NIGHT...BUT STILL COULD SEE
SPOTTY CONVECTION ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS
GOING THROUGH AROUND 06Z...THEN SLOWLY LOWER ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN AREAS AFTER THAT. PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE
ROUTE 2 AREA BY AROUND SUNRISE MON...BUT TIMING IS STILL IN
QUESTION.

MONDAY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS MOVING THE FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODEL SUITE.
LOOKS LIKE THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP LINGERS THROUGH MON AND EVEN INTO
MON NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA. WINDS DO
START TO SHIFT AROUND TO N-NE ACROSS CENTRAL AND N MA SO THIS WILL
CUT BACK ON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN. FOR
NOW...TEND TO TAPER OFF PRECIP BY MON NIGHT ACROSS MOST
AREAS...BUT DO LINGER IT ALONG THE S COAST THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
60S...AND MAY NOT EVEN BREAK 60 ALONG THE E COAST WITH ONSHORE
WINDS.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...PRECIP SHOULD FINALLY PUSH OFF THE S COAST BY
AROUND MIDDAY TUE AT THE LATEST. NE WINDS PICK UP AS HIGH PRES
CROSSES NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. HAVE CARRIED A
DRY AND SEASONABLE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS SHIFT TO W-NW BUT SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG LOOK TO LINGER ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS THROUGH
07Z-09Z THEN SHOULD IMPROVE. MAY BE SOME LOCALIZED GROUND FOG AT
TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. EXPECT SEA
BREEZES WITH WINDS SHIFTING MAINLY TO THE E LATE IN THE DAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS...
THEN CONDITIONS IMPROVE. SHRA AND SCT TSRA SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH
SAT NIGHT...WITH AREAS OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. SW WINDS GUSTING TO
20-25 KT MAINLY ACROSS E MA/RI SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. DIMINISHING
WINDS OVERNIGHT SAT.

SUNDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING
THE DAY WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS SHIFT TO N-NE
DURING THE DAY...THEN BECOME NE SUN NIGHT WHICH MAY GUST UP TO
AROUND 20 KT ALONG THE S COAST. SHOWERS LINGER SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...SCT SHOWERS LINGERING WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY
BUT WILL IMPROVE FROM N-S DURING THE DAY EXCEPT ALONG THE S COAST
WHERE SHOWERS WILL HANG IN THROUGH SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR
IN ANY SHOWERS THERE SUN NIGHT. NE WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 ACROSS
OUTER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. MAY SEE ISOLD SHOWERS EARLY TUE
ALONG S COAST BUT SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE. NE WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT
STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT HAVE DROPPED OFF AND SEAS ARE BELOW 5FT.
HAVE DROPPED THE SCA.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SOME STRATUS/FOG IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ON THE SRN
WATERS TOMORROW NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...SW WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST UP TO 25 KT ACROSS THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS...AND POSSIBLY ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS SAT
AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT ON ALL THE OUTER WATERS...
POSSIBLY INTO RI AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING SAT NIGHT. VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN PATCHY FOG ALONG S COASTAL
WATERS EARLY...THEN SHOULD IMPROVE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE WATERS. MAY SEE BRIEF
GUSTS TO 25 KT AS FRONT PASSES DURING SUNDAY...THEN WILL STALL
NEAR OR JUST S OF THE S COAST SUN NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO E-NE AS
FRONT PASSES. AREAS OF SHOWERS WITH SCT THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL VSBY
RESTRICTIONS.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY NE WINDS. GUSTS TO 25 KT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE.
SEAS BUILD UP TO 6-8 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS TO E OF
CAPE COD...AND UP TO 5 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE
LINGERING SHOWERS DURING MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/EVT
NEAR TERM...DOODY/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DOODY/EVT
MARINE...DOODY/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290208
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1008 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OVERNIGHT. ON FRIDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING A GREATER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY
LINGER NEAR OUR AREA INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

1000 PM UPDATE...

PRECIP HAS FINALLY COME TO AN END ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. MAY SEE A LONE POP-UP SHOWERS ACROSS THE
WATERS OVERNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS IJD TO GHG AND IS SLOWLY MOVING
SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT IS REALLY LOSING ITS PUNCH AS UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE HAS ALREADY PASSED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION
EARLIER TODAY. ANTICIPATE THE FRONT TO STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST OR JUST SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
MAY STILL SEE SOME PATCH FOG AS PREV FORECASTER MENTIONED BUT BULK
OF THE FORECAST STILL REMAINS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAY SEE A LITTLE BIT OF TRAPPED MOISTURE BENEATH THE BUILDING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION/DRYING ALOFT. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY
GROUND FOG PARTICULARLY AREAS WHERE ANY HEAVIER RAIN FELL IN
STORMS AND/OR NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OVERNIGHT. HAVE PATCHY FOG IN
THE FORECAST. DEWPTS WILL BE DROPPING...BUT LEFTOVER CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS AND THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT WILL PREVENT
TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY FALLING OFF THE TABLE. EXPECT MINS MAINLY IN
THE MID-UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY CREST OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT GRADUALLY
SHIFTING BACK TO THE S...FROM THE NW THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THE
LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT LOCAL SEA BREEZES TO LIMIT DIURNAL TEMP
TRENDS NEAR THE COASTLINES. INLAND HOWEVER...WITH SOME
DOWNSLOPING...CT VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE MID 80S.
MAINLY UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE AWAY FROM THE COAST.

TOMORROW NIGHT...
ALTHOUGH SFC HIGH PRES CENTER WILL BE SHIFTING TO WELL S OF NOVA
SCOTIA...UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THANKS TO STEADY
WARM ADVECTION UPSTREAM. THIS WILL KEEP ANY ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH ANOTHER SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...WELL TO THE W. EXPECT ONLY
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE W OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY CAVEAT MAY
BE NEAR S COASTAL REGIONS...WHERE SLY FLOW AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN
DWPTS COULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LOCALIZED MARINE FOG AND
STRATUS ONCE AGAIN. THIS RISE IN DWPTS WILL ALSO KEEP MINS UP A
BIT...MAINLY DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE COOLEST SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

OVERALL UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG EASTERN SEABOARD APPEARS TO
BREAK DOWN SATURDAY...THEN TROUGH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA BEGINS TO
SHIFT E LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE REGION AS IT RUNS PARALLEL TO THE
UPPER FLOW. TIMING ISSUES COME IN PLAY FROM MONDAY ONWARD...
DEPENDING UPON HOW FAR S THE FRONT FINALLY SETTLES WHILE HIGH
PRES BUILDS OUT OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES EASTWARD.

LEANED TOWARD THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE EARLY IN THIS PERIOD THEN
TRANSITIONED OVER THE GEFS AND ECENS GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWED A BIT
BETTER CONTINUITY.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY...HIGH PRES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD PUSHES FURTHER
OFFSHORE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...WITH GOOD SW WIND FLOW AND
INCREASING HUMIDITY MOVING NE INTO THE REGION. MODELS TENDING TO
SLOW THE PROGRESS OF THE APPROACHING FRONT OUT OF WESTERN QUEBEC
AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN AND SHIFTS E. HAVE MENTION
OF CHANCE POPS MOVING INTO WESTERN AREAS DURING SAT AFTERNOON...
THEN SHOULD PUSH SLOWLY SE SAT NIGHT.

GOOD INSTABILITY WITH THIS FRONT AS K INDICES INCREASE TO THE
LOWER-MID 30S. HAVE MENTIONED CHANCE POPS...BUT MENTIONED ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SAT NIGHT. NOTING INCREASING PWATS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AS WELL...UP TO 1.7 INCHES DURING
SAT NIGHT SO COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY
ACTIVITY. WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS REACH AROUND 80 INLAND...BUT ONLY IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST. MAY SEE
SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO AROUND 25-30 MPH ACROSS RI/SE MA SAT
AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

SUNDAY...LOOKS LIKE BEST SHOT OF MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION SUN/SUN NIGHT. CARRYING CAT POPS NEAR/ALONG THE SLOWLY
MOVING FRONT...AS WELL AS SOME SCT THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS INCREASE
TO 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES...SO COULD ALSO SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
AT THIS POINT...THINK THE FRONT WILL PUSH NEAR OR S OF THE MASS
PIKE AROUND SUN NIGHT...BUT WILL TEND TO SLOW DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LOWER THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS
MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO N MA SUN NIGHT...BUT STILL COULD SEE
SPOTTY CONVECTION ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS
GOING THROUGH AROUND 06Z...THEN SLOWLY LOWER ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN AREAS AFTER THAT. PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE
ROUTE 2 AREA BY AROUND SUNRISE MON...BUT TIMING IS STILL IN
QUESTION.

MONDAY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS MOVING THE FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODEL SUITE.
LOOKS LIKE THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP LINGERS THROUGH MON AND EVEN INTO
MON NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA. WINDS DO
START TO SHIFT AROUND TO N-NE ACROSS CENTRAL AND N MA SO THIS WILL
CUT BACK ON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN. FOR
NOW...TEND TO TAPER OFF PRECIP BY MON NIGHT ACROSS MOST
AREAS...BUT DO LINGER IT ALONG THE S COAST THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
60S...AND MAY NOT EVEN BREAK 60 ALONG THE E COAST WITH ONSHORE
WINDS.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...PRECIP SHOULD FINALLY PUSH OFF THE S COAST BY
AROUND MIDDAY TUE AT THE LATEST. NE WINDS PICK UP AS HIGH PRES
CROSSES NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. HAVE CARRIED A
DRY AND SEASONABLE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS SHIFT TO W-NW BUT SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG LOOK TO LINGER ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS THROUGH
07Z-09Z THEN SHOULD IMPROVE. MAY BE SOME LOCALIZED GROUND FOG AT
TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. EXPECT SEA
BREEZES WITH WINDS SHIFTING MAINLY TO THE E LATE IN THE DAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS...
THEN CONDITIONS IMPROVE. SHRA AND SCT TSRA SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH
SAT NIGHT...WITH AREAS OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. SW WINDS GUSTING TO
20-25 KT MAINLY ACROSS E MA/RI SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. DIMINISHING
WINDS OVERNIGHT SAT.

SUNDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING
THE DAY WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS SHIFT TO N-NE
DURING THE DAY...THEN BECOME NE SUN NIGHT WHICH MAY GUST UP TO
AROUND 20 KT ALONG THE S COAST. SHOWERS LINGER SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...SCT SHOWERS LINGERING WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY
BUT WILL IMPROVE FROM N-S DURING THE DAY EXCEPT ALONG THE S COAST
WHERE SHOWERS WILL HANG IN THROUGH SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR
IN ANY SHOWERS THERE SUN NIGHT. NE WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 ACROSS
OUTER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. MAY SEE ISOLD SHOWERS EARLY TUE
ALONG S COAST BUT SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE. NE WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT
STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT HAVE DROPPED OFF AND SEAS ARE BELOW 5FT.
HAVE DROPPED THE SCA.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SOME STRATUS/FOG IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ON THE SRN
WATERS TOMORROW NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...SW WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST UP TO 25 KT ACROSS THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS...AND POSSIBLY ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS SAT
AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT ON ALL THE OUTER WATERS...
POSSIBLY INTO RI AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING SAT NIGHT. VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN PATCHY FOG ALONG S COASTAL
WATERS EARLY...THEN SHOULD IMPROVE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE WATERS. MAY SEE BRIEF
GUSTS TO 25 KT AS FRONT PASSES DURING SUNDAY...THEN WILL STALL
NEAR OR JUST S OF THE S COAST SUN NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO E-NE AS
FRONT PASSES. AREAS OF SHOWERS WITH SCT THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL VSBY
RESTRICTIONS.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY NE WINDS. GUSTS TO 25 KT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE.
SEAS BUILD UP TO 6-8 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS TO E OF
CAPE COD...AND UP TO 5 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE
LINGERING SHOWERS DURING MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/EVT
NEAR TERM...DOODY/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DOODY/EVT
MARINE...DOODY/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290208
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1008 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OVERNIGHT. ON FRIDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING A GREATER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY
LINGER NEAR OUR AREA INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

1000 PM UPDATE...

PRECIP HAS FINALLY COME TO AN END ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. MAY SEE A LONE POP-UP SHOWERS ACROSS THE
WATERS OVERNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS IJD TO GHG AND IS SLOWLY MOVING
SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT IS REALLY LOSING ITS PUNCH AS UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE HAS ALREADY PASSED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION
EARLIER TODAY. ANTICIPATE THE FRONT TO STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST OR JUST SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
MAY STILL SEE SOME PATCH FOG AS PREV FORECASTER MENTIONED BUT BULK
OF THE FORECAST STILL REMAINS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAY SEE A LITTLE BIT OF TRAPPED MOISTURE BENEATH THE BUILDING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION/DRYING ALOFT. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY
GROUND FOG PARTICULARLY AREAS WHERE ANY HEAVIER RAIN FELL IN
STORMS AND/OR NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OVERNIGHT. HAVE PATCHY FOG IN
THE FORECAST. DEWPTS WILL BE DROPPING...BUT LEFTOVER CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS AND THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT WILL PREVENT
TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY FALLING OFF THE TABLE. EXPECT MINS MAINLY IN
THE MID-UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY CREST OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT GRADUALLY
SHIFTING BACK TO THE S...FROM THE NW THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THE
LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT LOCAL SEA BREEZES TO LIMIT DIURNAL TEMP
TRENDS NEAR THE COASTLINES. INLAND HOWEVER...WITH SOME
DOWNSLOPING...CT VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE MID 80S.
MAINLY UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE AWAY FROM THE COAST.

TOMORROW NIGHT...
ALTHOUGH SFC HIGH PRES CENTER WILL BE SHIFTING TO WELL S OF NOVA
SCOTIA...UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THANKS TO STEADY
WARM ADVECTION UPSTREAM. THIS WILL KEEP ANY ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH ANOTHER SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...WELL TO THE W. EXPECT ONLY
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE W OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY CAVEAT MAY
BE NEAR S COASTAL REGIONS...WHERE SLY FLOW AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN
DWPTS COULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LOCALIZED MARINE FOG AND
STRATUS ONCE AGAIN. THIS RISE IN DWPTS WILL ALSO KEEP MINS UP A
BIT...MAINLY DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE COOLEST SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

OVERALL UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG EASTERN SEABOARD APPEARS TO
BREAK DOWN SATURDAY...THEN TROUGH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA BEGINS TO
SHIFT E LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE REGION AS IT RUNS PARALLEL TO THE
UPPER FLOW. TIMING ISSUES COME IN PLAY FROM MONDAY ONWARD...
DEPENDING UPON HOW FAR S THE FRONT FINALLY SETTLES WHILE HIGH
PRES BUILDS OUT OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES EASTWARD.

LEANED TOWARD THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE EARLY IN THIS PERIOD THEN
TRANSITIONED OVER THE GEFS AND ECENS GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWED A BIT
BETTER CONTINUITY.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY...HIGH PRES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD PUSHES FURTHER
OFFSHORE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...WITH GOOD SW WIND FLOW AND
INCREASING HUMIDITY MOVING NE INTO THE REGION. MODELS TENDING TO
SLOW THE PROGRESS OF THE APPROACHING FRONT OUT OF WESTERN QUEBEC
AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN AND SHIFTS E. HAVE MENTION
OF CHANCE POPS MOVING INTO WESTERN AREAS DURING SAT AFTERNOON...
THEN SHOULD PUSH SLOWLY SE SAT NIGHT.

GOOD INSTABILITY WITH THIS FRONT AS K INDICES INCREASE TO THE
LOWER-MID 30S. HAVE MENTIONED CHANCE POPS...BUT MENTIONED ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SAT NIGHT. NOTING INCREASING PWATS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AS WELL...UP TO 1.7 INCHES DURING
SAT NIGHT SO COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY
ACTIVITY. WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS REACH AROUND 80 INLAND...BUT ONLY IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST. MAY SEE
SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO AROUND 25-30 MPH ACROSS RI/SE MA SAT
AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

SUNDAY...LOOKS LIKE BEST SHOT OF MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION SUN/SUN NIGHT. CARRYING CAT POPS NEAR/ALONG THE SLOWLY
MOVING FRONT...AS WELL AS SOME SCT THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS INCREASE
TO 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES...SO COULD ALSO SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
AT THIS POINT...THINK THE FRONT WILL PUSH NEAR OR S OF THE MASS
PIKE AROUND SUN NIGHT...BUT WILL TEND TO SLOW DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LOWER THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS
MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO N MA SUN NIGHT...BUT STILL COULD SEE
SPOTTY CONVECTION ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS
GOING THROUGH AROUND 06Z...THEN SLOWLY LOWER ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN AREAS AFTER THAT. PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE
ROUTE 2 AREA BY AROUND SUNRISE MON...BUT TIMING IS STILL IN
QUESTION.

MONDAY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS MOVING THE FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODEL SUITE.
LOOKS LIKE THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP LINGERS THROUGH MON AND EVEN INTO
MON NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA. WINDS DO
START TO SHIFT AROUND TO N-NE ACROSS CENTRAL AND N MA SO THIS WILL
CUT BACK ON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN. FOR
NOW...TEND TO TAPER OFF PRECIP BY MON NIGHT ACROSS MOST
AREAS...BUT DO LINGER IT ALONG THE S COAST THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
60S...AND MAY NOT EVEN BREAK 60 ALONG THE E COAST WITH ONSHORE
WINDS.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...PRECIP SHOULD FINALLY PUSH OFF THE S COAST BY
AROUND MIDDAY TUE AT THE LATEST. NE WINDS PICK UP AS HIGH PRES
CROSSES NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. HAVE CARRIED A
DRY AND SEASONABLE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS SHIFT TO W-NW BUT SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG LOOK TO LINGER ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS THROUGH
07Z-09Z THEN SHOULD IMPROVE. MAY BE SOME LOCALIZED GROUND FOG AT
TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. EXPECT SEA
BREEZES WITH WINDS SHIFTING MAINLY TO THE E LATE IN THE DAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS...
THEN CONDITIONS IMPROVE. SHRA AND SCT TSRA SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH
SAT NIGHT...WITH AREAS OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. SW WINDS GUSTING TO
20-25 KT MAINLY ACROSS E MA/RI SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. DIMINISHING
WINDS OVERNIGHT SAT.

SUNDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING
THE DAY WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS SHIFT TO N-NE
DURING THE DAY...THEN BECOME NE SUN NIGHT WHICH MAY GUST UP TO
AROUND 20 KT ALONG THE S COAST. SHOWERS LINGER SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...SCT SHOWERS LINGERING WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY
BUT WILL IMPROVE FROM N-S DURING THE DAY EXCEPT ALONG THE S COAST
WHERE SHOWERS WILL HANG IN THROUGH SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR
IN ANY SHOWERS THERE SUN NIGHT. NE WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 ACROSS
OUTER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. MAY SEE ISOLD SHOWERS EARLY TUE
ALONG S COAST BUT SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE. NE WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT
STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT HAVE DROPPED OFF AND SEAS ARE BELOW 5FT.
HAVE DROPPED THE SCA.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SOME STRATUS/FOG IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ON THE SRN
WATERS TOMORROW NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...SW WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST UP TO 25 KT ACROSS THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS...AND POSSIBLY ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS SAT
AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT ON ALL THE OUTER WATERS...
POSSIBLY INTO RI AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING SAT NIGHT. VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN PATCHY FOG ALONG S COASTAL
WATERS EARLY...THEN SHOULD IMPROVE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE WATERS. MAY SEE BRIEF
GUSTS TO 25 KT AS FRONT PASSES DURING SUNDAY...THEN WILL STALL
NEAR OR JUST S OF THE S COAST SUN NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO E-NE AS
FRONT PASSES. AREAS OF SHOWERS WITH SCT THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL VSBY
RESTRICTIONS.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY NE WINDS. GUSTS TO 25 KT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE.
SEAS BUILD UP TO 6-8 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS TO E OF
CAPE COD...AND UP TO 5 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE
LINGERING SHOWERS DURING MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/EVT
NEAR TERM...DOODY/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DOODY/EVT
MARINE...DOODY/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290208
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1008 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OVERNIGHT. ON FRIDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING A GREATER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY
LINGER NEAR OUR AREA INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

1000 PM UPDATE...

PRECIP HAS FINALLY COME TO AN END ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. MAY SEE A LONE POP-UP SHOWERS ACROSS THE
WATERS OVERNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS IJD TO GHG AND IS SLOWLY MOVING
SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT IS REALLY LOSING ITS PUNCH AS UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE HAS ALREADY PASSED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION
EARLIER TODAY. ANTICIPATE THE FRONT TO STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST OR JUST SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
MAY STILL SEE SOME PATCH FOG AS PREV FORECASTER MENTIONED BUT BULK
OF THE FORECAST STILL REMAINS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAY SEE A LITTLE BIT OF TRAPPED MOISTURE BENEATH THE BUILDING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION/DRYING ALOFT. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY
GROUND FOG PARTICULARLY AREAS WHERE ANY HEAVIER RAIN FELL IN
STORMS AND/OR NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OVERNIGHT. HAVE PATCHY FOG IN
THE FORECAST. DEWPTS WILL BE DROPPING...BUT LEFTOVER CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS AND THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT WILL PREVENT
TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY FALLING OFF THE TABLE. EXPECT MINS MAINLY IN
THE MID-UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY CREST OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT GRADUALLY
SHIFTING BACK TO THE S...FROM THE NW THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THE
LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT LOCAL SEA BREEZES TO LIMIT DIURNAL TEMP
TRENDS NEAR THE COASTLINES. INLAND HOWEVER...WITH SOME
DOWNSLOPING...CT VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE MID 80S.
MAINLY UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE AWAY FROM THE COAST.

TOMORROW NIGHT...
ALTHOUGH SFC HIGH PRES CENTER WILL BE SHIFTING TO WELL S OF NOVA
SCOTIA...UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THANKS TO STEADY
WARM ADVECTION UPSTREAM. THIS WILL KEEP ANY ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH ANOTHER SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...WELL TO THE W. EXPECT ONLY
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE W OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY CAVEAT MAY
BE NEAR S COASTAL REGIONS...WHERE SLY FLOW AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN
DWPTS COULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LOCALIZED MARINE FOG AND
STRATUS ONCE AGAIN. THIS RISE IN DWPTS WILL ALSO KEEP MINS UP A
BIT...MAINLY DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE COOLEST SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

OVERALL UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG EASTERN SEABOARD APPEARS TO
BREAK DOWN SATURDAY...THEN TROUGH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA BEGINS TO
SHIFT E LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE REGION AS IT RUNS PARALLEL TO THE
UPPER FLOW. TIMING ISSUES COME IN PLAY FROM MONDAY ONWARD...
DEPENDING UPON HOW FAR S THE FRONT FINALLY SETTLES WHILE HIGH
PRES BUILDS OUT OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES EASTWARD.

LEANED TOWARD THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE EARLY IN THIS PERIOD THEN
TRANSITIONED OVER THE GEFS AND ECENS GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWED A BIT
BETTER CONTINUITY.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY...HIGH PRES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD PUSHES FURTHER
OFFSHORE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...WITH GOOD SW WIND FLOW AND
INCREASING HUMIDITY MOVING NE INTO THE REGION. MODELS TENDING TO
SLOW THE PROGRESS OF THE APPROACHING FRONT OUT OF WESTERN QUEBEC
AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN AND SHIFTS E. HAVE MENTION
OF CHANCE POPS MOVING INTO WESTERN AREAS DURING SAT AFTERNOON...
THEN SHOULD PUSH SLOWLY SE SAT NIGHT.

GOOD INSTABILITY WITH THIS FRONT AS K INDICES INCREASE TO THE
LOWER-MID 30S. HAVE MENTIONED CHANCE POPS...BUT MENTIONED ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SAT NIGHT. NOTING INCREASING PWATS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AS WELL...UP TO 1.7 INCHES DURING
SAT NIGHT SO COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY
ACTIVITY. WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS REACH AROUND 80 INLAND...BUT ONLY IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST. MAY SEE
SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO AROUND 25-30 MPH ACROSS RI/SE MA SAT
AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

SUNDAY...LOOKS LIKE BEST SHOT OF MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION SUN/SUN NIGHT. CARRYING CAT POPS NEAR/ALONG THE SLOWLY
MOVING FRONT...AS WELL AS SOME SCT THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS INCREASE
TO 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES...SO COULD ALSO SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
AT THIS POINT...THINK THE FRONT WILL PUSH NEAR OR S OF THE MASS
PIKE AROUND SUN NIGHT...BUT WILL TEND TO SLOW DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LOWER THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS
MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO N MA SUN NIGHT...BUT STILL COULD SEE
SPOTTY CONVECTION ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS
GOING THROUGH AROUND 06Z...THEN SLOWLY LOWER ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN AREAS AFTER THAT. PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE
ROUTE 2 AREA BY AROUND SUNRISE MON...BUT TIMING IS STILL IN
QUESTION.

MONDAY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS MOVING THE FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODEL SUITE.
LOOKS LIKE THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP LINGERS THROUGH MON AND EVEN INTO
MON NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA. WINDS DO
START TO SHIFT AROUND TO N-NE ACROSS CENTRAL AND N MA SO THIS WILL
CUT BACK ON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN. FOR
NOW...TEND TO TAPER OFF PRECIP BY MON NIGHT ACROSS MOST
AREAS...BUT DO LINGER IT ALONG THE S COAST THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
60S...AND MAY NOT EVEN BREAK 60 ALONG THE E COAST WITH ONSHORE
WINDS.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...PRECIP SHOULD FINALLY PUSH OFF THE S COAST BY
AROUND MIDDAY TUE AT THE LATEST. NE WINDS PICK UP AS HIGH PRES
CROSSES NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. HAVE CARRIED A
DRY AND SEASONABLE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS SHIFT TO W-NW BUT SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG LOOK TO LINGER ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS THROUGH
07Z-09Z THEN SHOULD IMPROVE. MAY BE SOME LOCALIZED GROUND FOG AT
TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. EXPECT SEA
BREEZES WITH WINDS SHIFTING MAINLY TO THE E LATE IN THE DAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS...
THEN CONDITIONS IMPROVE. SHRA AND SCT TSRA SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH
SAT NIGHT...WITH AREAS OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. SW WINDS GUSTING TO
20-25 KT MAINLY ACROSS E MA/RI SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. DIMINISHING
WINDS OVERNIGHT SAT.

SUNDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING
THE DAY WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS SHIFT TO N-NE
DURING THE DAY...THEN BECOME NE SUN NIGHT WHICH MAY GUST UP TO
AROUND 20 KT ALONG THE S COAST. SHOWERS LINGER SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...SCT SHOWERS LINGERING WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY
BUT WILL IMPROVE FROM N-S DURING THE DAY EXCEPT ALONG THE S COAST
WHERE SHOWERS WILL HANG IN THROUGH SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR
IN ANY SHOWERS THERE SUN NIGHT. NE WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 ACROSS
OUTER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. MAY SEE ISOLD SHOWERS EARLY TUE
ALONG S COAST BUT SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE. NE WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT
STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT HAVE DROPPED OFF AND SEAS ARE BELOW 5FT.
HAVE DROPPED THE SCA.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SOME STRATUS/FOG IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ON THE SRN
WATERS TOMORROW NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...SW WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST UP TO 25 KT ACROSS THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS...AND POSSIBLY ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS SAT
AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT ON ALL THE OUTER WATERS...
POSSIBLY INTO RI AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING SAT NIGHT. VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN PATCHY FOG ALONG S COASTAL
WATERS EARLY...THEN SHOULD IMPROVE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE WATERS. MAY SEE BRIEF
GUSTS TO 25 KT AS FRONT PASSES DURING SUNDAY...THEN WILL STALL
NEAR OR JUST S OF THE S COAST SUN NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO E-NE AS
FRONT PASSES. AREAS OF SHOWERS WITH SCT THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL VSBY
RESTRICTIONS.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY NE WINDS. GUSTS TO 25 KT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE.
SEAS BUILD UP TO 6-8 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS TO E OF
CAPE COD...AND UP TO 5 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE
LINGERING SHOWERS DURING MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/EVT
NEAR TERM...DOODY/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DOODY/EVT
MARINE...DOODY/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290208
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1008 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OVERNIGHT. ON FRIDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING A GREATER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY
LINGER NEAR OUR AREA INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

1000 PM UPDATE...

PRECIP HAS FINALLY COME TO AN END ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. MAY SEE A LONE POP-UP SHOWERS ACROSS THE
WATERS OVERNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS IJD TO GHG AND IS SLOWLY MOVING
SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT IS REALLY LOSING ITS PUNCH AS UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE HAS ALREADY PASSED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION
EARLIER TODAY. ANTICIPATE THE FRONT TO STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST OR JUST SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
MAY STILL SEE SOME PATCH FOG AS PREV FORECASTER MENTIONED BUT BULK
OF THE FORECAST STILL REMAINS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAY SEE A LITTLE BIT OF TRAPPED MOISTURE BENEATH THE BUILDING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION/DRYING ALOFT. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY
GROUND FOG PARTICULARLY AREAS WHERE ANY HEAVIER RAIN FELL IN
STORMS AND/OR NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OVERNIGHT. HAVE PATCHY FOG IN
THE FORECAST. DEWPTS WILL BE DROPPING...BUT LEFTOVER CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS AND THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT WILL PREVENT
TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY FALLING OFF THE TABLE. EXPECT MINS MAINLY IN
THE MID-UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY CREST OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT GRADUALLY
SHIFTING BACK TO THE S...FROM THE NW THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THE
LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT LOCAL SEA BREEZES TO LIMIT DIURNAL TEMP
TRENDS NEAR THE COASTLINES. INLAND HOWEVER...WITH SOME
DOWNSLOPING...CT VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE MID 80S.
MAINLY UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE AWAY FROM THE COAST.

TOMORROW NIGHT...
ALTHOUGH SFC HIGH PRES CENTER WILL BE SHIFTING TO WELL S OF NOVA
SCOTIA...UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THANKS TO STEADY
WARM ADVECTION UPSTREAM. THIS WILL KEEP ANY ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH ANOTHER SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...WELL TO THE W. EXPECT ONLY
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE W OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY CAVEAT MAY
BE NEAR S COASTAL REGIONS...WHERE SLY FLOW AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN
DWPTS COULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LOCALIZED MARINE FOG AND
STRATUS ONCE AGAIN. THIS RISE IN DWPTS WILL ALSO KEEP MINS UP A
BIT...MAINLY DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE COOLEST SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

OVERALL UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG EASTERN SEABOARD APPEARS TO
BREAK DOWN SATURDAY...THEN TROUGH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA BEGINS TO
SHIFT E LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE REGION AS IT RUNS PARALLEL TO THE
UPPER FLOW. TIMING ISSUES COME IN PLAY FROM MONDAY ONWARD...
DEPENDING UPON HOW FAR S THE FRONT FINALLY SETTLES WHILE HIGH
PRES BUILDS OUT OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES EASTWARD.

LEANED TOWARD THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE EARLY IN THIS PERIOD THEN
TRANSITIONED OVER THE GEFS AND ECENS GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWED A BIT
BETTER CONTINUITY.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY...HIGH PRES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD PUSHES FURTHER
OFFSHORE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...WITH GOOD SW WIND FLOW AND
INCREASING HUMIDITY MOVING NE INTO THE REGION. MODELS TENDING TO
SLOW THE PROGRESS OF THE APPROACHING FRONT OUT OF WESTERN QUEBEC
AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN AND SHIFTS E. HAVE MENTION
OF CHANCE POPS MOVING INTO WESTERN AREAS DURING SAT AFTERNOON...
THEN SHOULD PUSH SLOWLY SE SAT NIGHT.

GOOD INSTABILITY WITH THIS FRONT AS K INDICES INCREASE TO THE
LOWER-MID 30S. HAVE MENTIONED CHANCE POPS...BUT MENTIONED ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SAT NIGHT. NOTING INCREASING PWATS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AS WELL...UP TO 1.7 INCHES DURING
SAT NIGHT SO COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY
ACTIVITY. WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS REACH AROUND 80 INLAND...BUT ONLY IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST. MAY SEE
SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO AROUND 25-30 MPH ACROSS RI/SE MA SAT
AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

SUNDAY...LOOKS LIKE BEST SHOT OF MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION SUN/SUN NIGHT. CARRYING CAT POPS NEAR/ALONG THE SLOWLY
MOVING FRONT...AS WELL AS SOME SCT THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS INCREASE
TO 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES...SO COULD ALSO SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
AT THIS POINT...THINK THE FRONT WILL PUSH NEAR OR S OF THE MASS
PIKE AROUND SUN NIGHT...BUT WILL TEND TO SLOW DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LOWER THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS
MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO N MA SUN NIGHT...BUT STILL COULD SEE
SPOTTY CONVECTION ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS
GOING THROUGH AROUND 06Z...THEN SLOWLY LOWER ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN AREAS AFTER THAT. PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE
ROUTE 2 AREA BY AROUND SUNRISE MON...BUT TIMING IS STILL IN
QUESTION.

MONDAY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS MOVING THE FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODEL SUITE.
LOOKS LIKE THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP LINGERS THROUGH MON AND EVEN INTO
MON NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA. WINDS DO
START TO SHIFT AROUND TO N-NE ACROSS CENTRAL AND N MA SO THIS WILL
CUT BACK ON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN. FOR
NOW...TEND TO TAPER OFF PRECIP BY MON NIGHT ACROSS MOST
AREAS...BUT DO LINGER IT ALONG THE S COAST THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
60S...AND MAY NOT EVEN BREAK 60 ALONG THE E COAST WITH ONSHORE
WINDS.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...PRECIP SHOULD FINALLY PUSH OFF THE S COAST BY
AROUND MIDDAY TUE AT THE LATEST. NE WINDS PICK UP AS HIGH PRES
CROSSES NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. HAVE CARRIED A
DRY AND SEASONABLE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS SHIFT TO W-NW BUT SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG LOOK TO LINGER ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS THROUGH
07Z-09Z THEN SHOULD IMPROVE. MAY BE SOME LOCALIZED GROUND FOG AT
TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. EXPECT SEA
BREEZES WITH WINDS SHIFTING MAINLY TO THE E LATE IN THE DAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS...
THEN CONDITIONS IMPROVE. SHRA AND SCT TSRA SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH
SAT NIGHT...WITH AREAS OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. SW WINDS GUSTING TO
20-25 KT MAINLY ACROSS E MA/RI SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. DIMINISHING
WINDS OVERNIGHT SAT.

SUNDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING
THE DAY WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS SHIFT TO N-NE
DURING THE DAY...THEN BECOME NE SUN NIGHT WHICH MAY GUST UP TO
AROUND 20 KT ALONG THE S COAST. SHOWERS LINGER SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...SCT SHOWERS LINGERING WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY
BUT WILL IMPROVE FROM N-S DURING THE DAY EXCEPT ALONG THE S COAST
WHERE SHOWERS WILL HANG IN THROUGH SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR
IN ANY SHOWERS THERE SUN NIGHT. NE WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 ACROSS
OUTER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. MAY SEE ISOLD SHOWERS EARLY TUE
ALONG S COAST BUT SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE. NE WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT
STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT HAVE DROPPED OFF AND SEAS ARE BELOW 5FT.
HAVE DROPPED THE SCA.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SOME STRATUS/FOG IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ON THE SRN
WATERS TOMORROW NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...SW WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST UP TO 25 KT ACROSS THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS...AND POSSIBLY ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS SAT
AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT ON ALL THE OUTER WATERS...
POSSIBLY INTO RI AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING SAT NIGHT. VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN PATCHY FOG ALONG S COASTAL
WATERS EARLY...THEN SHOULD IMPROVE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE WATERS. MAY SEE BRIEF
GUSTS TO 25 KT AS FRONT PASSES DURING SUNDAY...THEN WILL STALL
NEAR OR JUST S OF THE S COAST SUN NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO E-NE AS
FRONT PASSES. AREAS OF SHOWERS WITH SCT THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL VSBY
RESTRICTIONS.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY NE WINDS. GUSTS TO 25 KT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE.
SEAS BUILD UP TO 6-8 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS TO E OF
CAPE COD...AND UP TO 5 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE
LINGERING SHOWERS DURING MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/EVT
NEAR TERM...DOODY/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DOODY/EVT
MARINE...DOODY/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290208
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1008 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OVERNIGHT. ON FRIDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING A GREATER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY
LINGER NEAR OUR AREA INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

1000 PM UPDATE...

PRECIP HAS FINALLY COME TO AN END ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. MAY SEE A LONE POP-UP SHOWERS ACROSS THE
WATERS OVERNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS IJD TO GHG AND IS SLOWLY MOVING
SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT IS REALLY LOSING ITS PUNCH AS UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE HAS ALREADY PASSED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION
EARLIER TODAY. ANTICIPATE THE FRONT TO STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
SOUTH COAST OR JUST SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
MAY STILL SEE SOME PATCH FOG AS PREV FORECASTER MENTIONED BUT BULK
OF THE FORECAST STILL REMAINS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAY SEE A LITTLE BIT OF TRAPPED MOISTURE BENEATH THE BUILDING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION/DRYING ALOFT. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY
GROUND FOG PARTICULARLY AREAS WHERE ANY HEAVIER RAIN FELL IN
STORMS AND/OR NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OVERNIGHT. HAVE PATCHY FOG IN
THE FORECAST. DEWPTS WILL BE DROPPING...BUT LEFTOVER CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS AND THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT WILL PREVENT
TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY FALLING OFF THE TABLE. EXPECT MINS MAINLY IN
THE MID-UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY CREST OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT GRADUALLY
SHIFTING BACK TO THE S...FROM THE NW THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THE
LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT LOCAL SEA BREEZES TO LIMIT DIURNAL TEMP
TRENDS NEAR THE COASTLINES. INLAND HOWEVER...WITH SOME
DOWNSLOPING...CT VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE MID 80S.
MAINLY UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE AWAY FROM THE COAST.

TOMORROW NIGHT...
ALTHOUGH SFC HIGH PRES CENTER WILL BE SHIFTING TO WELL S OF NOVA
SCOTIA...UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THANKS TO STEADY
WARM ADVECTION UPSTREAM. THIS WILL KEEP ANY ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH ANOTHER SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...WELL TO THE W. EXPECT ONLY
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE W OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY CAVEAT MAY
BE NEAR S COASTAL REGIONS...WHERE SLY FLOW AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN
DWPTS COULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LOCALIZED MARINE FOG AND
STRATUS ONCE AGAIN. THIS RISE IN DWPTS WILL ALSO KEEP MINS UP A
BIT...MAINLY DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE COOLEST SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

OVERALL UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG EASTERN SEABOARD APPEARS TO
BREAK DOWN SATURDAY...THEN TROUGH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA BEGINS TO
SHIFT E LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE REGION AS IT RUNS PARALLEL TO THE
UPPER FLOW. TIMING ISSUES COME IN PLAY FROM MONDAY ONWARD...
DEPENDING UPON HOW FAR S THE FRONT FINALLY SETTLES WHILE HIGH
PRES BUILDS OUT OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES EASTWARD.

LEANED TOWARD THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE EARLY IN THIS PERIOD THEN
TRANSITIONED OVER THE GEFS AND ECENS GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWED A BIT
BETTER CONTINUITY.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY...HIGH PRES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD PUSHES FURTHER
OFFSHORE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...WITH GOOD SW WIND FLOW AND
INCREASING HUMIDITY MOVING NE INTO THE REGION. MODELS TENDING TO
SLOW THE PROGRESS OF THE APPROACHING FRONT OUT OF WESTERN QUEBEC
AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN AND SHIFTS E. HAVE MENTION
OF CHANCE POPS MOVING INTO WESTERN AREAS DURING SAT AFTERNOON...
THEN SHOULD PUSH SLOWLY SE SAT NIGHT.

GOOD INSTABILITY WITH THIS FRONT AS K INDICES INCREASE TO THE
LOWER-MID 30S. HAVE MENTIONED CHANCE POPS...BUT MENTIONED ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SAT NIGHT. NOTING INCREASING PWATS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AS WELL...UP TO 1.7 INCHES DURING
SAT NIGHT SO COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY
ACTIVITY. WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS REACH AROUND 80 INLAND...BUT ONLY IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST. MAY SEE
SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO AROUND 25-30 MPH ACROSS RI/SE MA SAT
AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

SUNDAY...LOOKS LIKE BEST SHOT OF MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION SUN/SUN NIGHT. CARRYING CAT POPS NEAR/ALONG THE SLOWLY
MOVING FRONT...AS WELL AS SOME SCT THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS INCREASE
TO 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES...SO COULD ALSO SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
AT THIS POINT...THINK THE FRONT WILL PUSH NEAR OR S OF THE MASS
PIKE AROUND SUN NIGHT...BUT WILL TEND TO SLOW DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LOWER THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS
MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO N MA SUN NIGHT...BUT STILL COULD SEE
SPOTTY CONVECTION ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS
GOING THROUGH AROUND 06Z...THEN SLOWLY LOWER ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN AREAS AFTER THAT. PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE
ROUTE 2 AREA BY AROUND SUNRISE MON...BUT TIMING IS STILL IN
QUESTION.

MONDAY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS MOVING THE FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODEL SUITE.
LOOKS LIKE THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP LINGERS THROUGH MON AND EVEN INTO
MON NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA. WINDS DO
START TO SHIFT AROUND TO N-NE ACROSS CENTRAL AND N MA SO THIS WILL
CUT BACK ON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN. FOR
NOW...TEND TO TAPER OFF PRECIP BY MON NIGHT ACROSS MOST
AREAS...BUT DO LINGER IT ALONG THE S COAST THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
60S...AND MAY NOT EVEN BREAK 60 ALONG THE E COAST WITH ONSHORE
WINDS.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...PRECIP SHOULD FINALLY PUSH OFF THE S COAST BY
AROUND MIDDAY TUE AT THE LATEST. NE WINDS PICK UP AS HIGH PRES
CROSSES NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. HAVE CARRIED A
DRY AND SEASONABLE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS SHIFT TO W-NW BUT SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG LOOK TO LINGER ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS THROUGH
07Z-09Z THEN SHOULD IMPROVE. MAY BE SOME LOCALIZED GROUND FOG AT
TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. EXPECT SEA
BREEZES WITH WINDS SHIFTING MAINLY TO THE E LATE IN THE DAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS...
THEN CONDITIONS IMPROVE. SHRA AND SCT TSRA SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH
SAT NIGHT...WITH AREAS OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. SW WINDS GUSTING TO
20-25 KT MAINLY ACROSS E MA/RI SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. DIMINISHING
WINDS OVERNIGHT SAT.

SUNDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING
THE DAY WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS SHIFT TO N-NE
DURING THE DAY...THEN BECOME NE SUN NIGHT WHICH MAY GUST UP TO
AROUND 20 KT ALONG THE S COAST. SHOWERS LINGER SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...SCT SHOWERS LINGERING WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY
BUT WILL IMPROVE FROM N-S DURING THE DAY EXCEPT ALONG THE S COAST
WHERE SHOWERS WILL HANG IN THROUGH SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR
IN ANY SHOWERS THERE SUN NIGHT. NE WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 ACROSS
OUTER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. MAY SEE ISOLD SHOWERS EARLY TUE
ALONG S COAST BUT SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE. NE WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT
STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT HAVE DROPPED OFF AND SEAS ARE BELOW 5FT.
HAVE DROPPED THE SCA.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SOME STRATUS/FOG IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ON THE SRN
WATERS TOMORROW NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...SW WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST UP TO 25 KT ACROSS THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS...AND POSSIBLY ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS SAT
AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT ON ALL THE OUTER WATERS...
POSSIBLY INTO RI AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING SAT NIGHT. VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN PATCHY FOG ALONG S COASTAL
WATERS EARLY...THEN SHOULD IMPROVE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE WATERS. MAY SEE BRIEF
GUSTS TO 25 KT AS FRONT PASSES DURING SUNDAY...THEN WILL STALL
NEAR OR JUST S OF THE S COAST SUN NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO E-NE AS
FRONT PASSES. AREAS OF SHOWERS WITH SCT THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL VSBY
RESTRICTIONS.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY NE WINDS. GUSTS TO 25 KT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE.
SEAS BUILD UP TO 6-8 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS TO E OF
CAPE COD...AND UP TO 5 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE
LINGERING SHOWERS DURING MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/EVT
NEAR TERM...DOODY/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DOODY/EVT
MARINE...DOODY/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 282351
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
751 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OVERNIGHT. ON FRIDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING A GREATER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY
LINGER NEAR OUR AREA INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BEGAN TO DISSIPATE AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MOVED ACROSS NE AND CENTRAL MA INTO N CENTRAL CT AT AROUND 22Z.
THEY HAVE PRETTY MUCH ENDED BY AROUND 23Z...EXCEPT FOR ONE LONE
CELL ACROSS MASS/IPSWICH BAYS WHICH SHOULD ALSO DISSIPATE AS IT
MOVES OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

FRONT TENDING TO SLOW AS IT APPROACHES THE S COAST AS WAS
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. HOWEVER...DRY AIR CONTINUES TO WORK IN BEHIND
THE FRONT...SO WILL SEE SKIES TEND TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT.
NOTING SOME LOW CLOUDS ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS AT 23Z.
THOSE COULD LINGER THROUGH MOST OF IF NOT ALL NIGHT DEPENDING UPON
IF AND/OR WHEN THE FRONT REACHES THAT AREA. HAVE KEPT MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

HAVE UPDATED NEAR TERM GRIDS TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAY SEE A LITTLE BIT OF TRAPPED MOISTURE BENEATH THE BUILDING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION/DRYING ALOFT. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY
GROUND FOG PARTICULARLY AREAS WHERE ANY HEAVIER RAIN FELL IN
STORMS AND/OR NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OVERNIGHT. HAVE PATCHY FOG IN
THE FORECAST. DEWPTS WILL BE DROPPING...BUT LEFTOVER CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS AND THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT WILL PREVENT
TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY FALLING OFF THE TABLE. EXPECT MINS MAINLY IN
THE MID-UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY CREST OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT GRADUALLY
SHIFTING BACK TO THE S...FROM THE NW THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THE
LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT LOCAL SEA BREEZES TO LIMIT DIURNAL TEMP
TRENDS NEAR THE COASTLINES. INLAND HOWEVER...WITH SOME
DOWNSLOPING...CT VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE MID 80S.
MAINLY UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE AWAY FROM THE COAST.

TOMORROW NIGHT...
ALTHOUGH SFC HIGH PRES CENTER WILL BE SHIFTING TO WELL S OF NOVA
SCOTIA...UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THANKS TO STEADY
WARM ADVECTION UPSTREAM. THIS WILL KEEP ANY ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH ANOTHER SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...WELL TO THE W. EXPECT ONLY
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE W OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY CAVEAT MAY
BE NEAR S COASTAL REGIONS...WHERE SLY FLOW AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN
DWPTS COULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LOCALIZED MARINE FOG AND
STRATUS ONCE AGAIN. THIS RISE IN DWPTS WILL ALSO KEEP MINS UP A
BIT...MAINLY DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE COOLEST SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

OVERALL UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG EASTERN SEABOARD APPEARS TO
BREAK DOWN SATURDAY...THEN TROUGH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA BEGINS TO
SHIFT E LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE REGION AS IT RUNS PARALLEL TO THE
UPPER FLOW. TIMING ISSUES COME IN PLAY FROM MONDAY ONWARD...
DEPENDING UPON HOW FAR S THE FRONT FINALLY SETTLES WHILE HIGH
PRES BUILDS OUT OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES EASTWARD.

LEANED TOWARD THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE EARLY IN THIS PERIOD THEN
TRANSITIONED OVER THE GEFS AND ECENS GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWED A BIT
BETTER CONTINUITY.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY...HIGH PRES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD PUSHES FURTHER
OFFSHORE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...WITH GOOD SW WIND FLOW AND
INCREASING HUMIDITY MOVING NE INTO THE REGION. MODELS TENDING TO
SLOW THE PROGRESS OF THE APPROACHING FRONT OUT OF WESTERN QUEBEC
AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN AND SHIFTS E. HAVE MENTION
OF CHANCE POPS MOVING INTO WESTERN AREAS DURING SAT AFTERNOON...
THEN SHOULD PUSH SLOWLY SE SAT NIGHT.

GOOD INSTABILITY WITH THIS FRONT AS K INDICES INCREASE TO THE
LOWER-MID 30S. HAVE MENTIONED CHANCE POPS...BUT MENTIONED ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SAT NIGHT. NOTING INCREASING PWATS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AS WELL...UP TO 1.7 INCHES DURING
SAT NIGHT SO COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY
ACTIVITY. WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS REACH AROUND 80 INLAND...BUT ONLY IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST. MAY SEE
SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO AROUND 25-30 MPH ACROSS RI/SE MA SAT
AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

SUNDAY...LOOKS LIKE BEST SHOT OF MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION SUN/SUN NIGHT. CARRYING CAT POPS NEAR/ALONG THE SLOWLY
MOVING FRONT...AS WELL AS SOME SCT THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS INCREASE
TO 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES...SO COULD ALSO SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
AT THIS POINT...THINK THE FRONT WILL PUSH NEAR OR S OF THE MASS
PIKE AROUND SUN NIGHT...BUT WILL TEND TO SLOW DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LOWER THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS
MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO N MA SUN NIGHT...BUT STILL COULD SEE
SPOTTY CONVECTION ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS
GOING THROUGH AROUND 06Z...THEN SLOWLY LOWER ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN AREAS AFTER THAT. PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE
ROUTE 2 AREA BY AROUND SUNRISE MON...BUT TIMING IS STILL IN
QUESTION.

MONDAY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS MOVING THE FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODEL SUITE.
LOOKS LIKE THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP LINGERS THROUGH MON AND EVEN INTO
MON NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA. WINDS DO
START TO SHIFT AROUND TO N-NE ACROSS CENTRAL AND N MA SO THIS WILL
CUT BACK ON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN. FOR
NOW...TEND TO TAPER OFF PRECIP BY MON NIGHT ACROSS MOST
AREAS...BUT DO LINGER IT ALONG THE S COAST THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
60S...AND MAY NOT EVEN BREAK 60 ALONG THE E COAST WITH ONSHORE
WINDS.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...PRECIP SHOULD FINALLY PUSH OFF THE S COAST BY
AROUND MIDDAY TUE AT THE LATEST. NE WINDS PICK UP AS HIGH PRES
CROSSES NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. HAVE CARRIED A
DRY AND SEASONABLE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS SHIFT TO W-NW BUT SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. MAY SEE SOME WIND
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ALONG THE S COAST EARLY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER SHRA DISSIPATE AND SKIES
BECOME MAINLY CLEAR THIS EVENING. SOME LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
LOOK TO LINGER ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS THROUGH 07Z-09Z
THEN SHOULD IMPROVE. MAY BE SOME LOCALIZED GROUND FOG AT TYPICALLY
PRONE AIRPORTS.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. EXPECT SEA
BREEZES WITH WINDS SHIFTING MAINLY TO THE E LATE IN THE DAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. ONLY ISSUE IS EXACT TIMING
OF POTENTIAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. EXACT TIMING OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR SO.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS...
THEN CONDITIONS IMPROVE. SHRA AND SCT TSRA SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH
SAT NIGHT...WITH AREAS OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. SW WINDS GUSTING TO
20-25 KT MAINLY ACROSS E MA/RI SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. DIMINISHING
WINDS OVERNIGHT SAT.

SUNDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING
THE DAY WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS SHIFT TO N-NE
DURING THE DAY...THEN BECOME NE SUN NIGHT WHICH MAY GUST UP TO
AROUND 20 KT ALONG THE S COAST. SHOWERS LINGER SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...SCT SHOWERS LINGERING WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY
BUT WILL IMPROVE FROM N-S DURING THE DAY EXCEPT ALONG THE S COAST
WHERE SHOWERS WILL HANG IN THROUGH SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR
IN ANY SHOWERS THERE SUN NIGHT. NE WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 ACROSS
OUTER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. MAY SEE ISOLD SHOWERS EARLY TUE
ALONG S COAST BUT SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE. NE WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT
STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SMALL CRAFTS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THIS EVENING. SEAS ARE NEAR 5 FT
ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND WIND GUSTS NEAR SHORE ARE 25-30 KT.
CURRENT TIMING IS THROUGH ABOUT 10 PM...WHICH IS PRETTY CLOSE TO
WHEN CONDITIONS SHOULD COME TO AN END.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SOME STRATUS/FOG IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ON THE SRN
WATERS TOMORROW NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...SW WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST UP TO 25 KT ACROSS THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS...AND POSSIBLY ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS SAT
AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT ON ALL THE OUTER WATERS...
POSSIBLY INTO RI AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING SAT NIGHT. VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN PATCHY FOG ALONG S COASTAL
WATERS EARLY...THEN SHOULD IMPROVE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE WATERS. MAY SEE BRIEF
GUSTS TO 25 KT AS FRONT PASSES DURING SUNDAY...THEN WILL STALL
NEAR OR JUST S OF THE S COAST SUN NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO E-NE AS
FRONT PASSES. AREAS OF SHOWERS WITH SCT THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL VSBY
RESTRICTIONS.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY NE WINDS. GUSTS TO 25 KT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE.
SEAS BUILD UP TO 6-8 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS TO E OF
CAPE COD...AND UP TO 5 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE
LINGERING SHOWERS DURING MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/EVT
NEAR TERM...DOODY/EVT
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DOODY/EVT
MARINE...DOODY/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 282351
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
751 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OVERNIGHT. ON FRIDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING A GREATER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY
LINGER NEAR OUR AREA INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BEGAN TO DISSIPATE AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MOVED ACROSS NE AND CENTRAL MA INTO N CENTRAL CT AT AROUND 22Z.
THEY HAVE PRETTY MUCH ENDED BY AROUND 23Z...EXCEPT FOR ONE LONE
CELL ACROSS MASS/IPSWICH BAYS WHICH SHOULD ALSO DISSIPATE AS IT
MOVES OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

FRONT TENDING TO SLOW AS IT APPROACHES THE S COAST AS WAS
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. HOWEVER...DRY AIR CONTINUES TO WORK IN BEHIND
THE FRONT...SO WILL SEE SKIES TEND TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT.
NOTING SOME LOW CLOUDS ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS AT 23Z.
THOSE COULD LINGER THROUGH MOST OF IF NOT ALL NIGHT DEPENDING UPON
IF AND/OR WHEN THE FRONT REACHES THAT AREA. HAVE KEPT MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

HAVE UPDATED NEAR TERM GRIDS TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAY SEE A LITTLE BIT OF TRAPPED MOISTURE BENEATH THE BUILDING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION/DRYING ALOFT. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY
GROUND FOG PARTICULARLY AREAS WHERE ANY HEAVIER RAIN FELL IN
STORMS AND/OR NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OVERNIGHT. HAVE PATCHY FOG IN
THE FORECAST. DEWPTS WILL BE DROPPING...BUT LEFTOVER CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS AND THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT WILL PREVENT
TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY FALLING OFF THE TABLE. EXPECT MINS MAINLY IN
THE MID-UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY CREST OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT GRADUALLY
SHIFTING BACK TO THE S...FROM THE NW THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THE
LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT LOCAL SEA BREEZES TO LIMIT DIURNAL TEMP
TRENDS NEAR THE COASTLINES. INLAND HOWEVER...WITH SOME
DOWNSLOPING...CT VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE MID 80S.
MAINLY UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE AWAY FROM THE COAST.

TOMORROW NIGHT...
ALTHOUGH SFC HIGH PRES CENTER WILL BE SHIFTING TO WELL S OF NOVA
SCOTIA...UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THANKS TO STEADY
WARM ADVECTION UPSTREAM. THIS WILL KEEP ANY ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH ANOTHER SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...WELL TO THE W. EXPECT ONLY
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE W OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY CAVEAT MAY
BE NEAR S COASTAL REGIONS...WHERE SLY FLOW AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN
DWPTS COULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LOCALIZED MARINE FOG AND
STRATUS ONCE AGAIN. THIS RISE IN DWPTS WILL ALSO KEEP MINS UP A
BIT...MAINLY DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE COOLEST SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

OVERALL UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG EASTERN SEABOARD APPEARS TO
BREAK DOWN SATURDAY...THEN TROUGH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA BEGINS TO
SHIFT E LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE REGION AS IT RUNS PARALLEL TO THE
UPPER FLOW. TIMING ISSUES COME IN PLAY FROM MONDAY ONWARD...
DEPENDING UPON HOW FAR S THE FRONT FINALLY SETTLES WHILE HIGH
PRES BUILDS OUT OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES EASTWARD.

LEANED TOWARD THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE EARLY IN THIS PERIOD THEN
TRANSITIONED OVER THE GEFS AND ECENS GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWED A BIT
BETTER CONTINUITY.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY...HIGH PRES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD PUSHES FURTHER
OFFSHORE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...WITH GOOD SW WIND FLOW AND
INCREASING HUMIDITY MOVING NE INTO THE REGION. MODELS TENDING TO
SLOW THE PROGRESS OF THE APPROACHING FRONT OUT OF WESTERN QUEBEC
AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN AND SHIFTS E. HAVE MENTION
OF CHANCE POPS MOVING INTO WESTERN AREAS DURING SAT AFTERNOON...
THEN SHOULD PUSH SLOWLY SE SAT NIGHT.

GOOD INSTABILITY WITH THIS FRONT AS K INDICES INCREASE TO THE
LOWER-MID 30S. HAVE MENTIONED CHANCE POPS...BUT MENTIONED ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SAT NIGHT. NOTING INCREASING PWATS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AS WELL...UP TO 1.7 INCHES DURING
SAT NIGHT SO COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY
ACTIVITY. WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS REACH AROUND 80 INLAND...BUT ONLY IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST. MAY SEE
SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO AROUND 25-30 MPH ACROSS RI/SE MA SAT
AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

SUNDAY...LOOKS LIKE BEST SHOT OF MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION SUN/SUN NIGHT. CARRYING CAT POPS NEAR/ALONG THE SLOWLY
MOVING FRONT...AS WELL AS SOME SCT THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS INCREASE
TO 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES...SO COULD ALSO SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
AT THIS POINT...THINK THE FRONT WILL PUSH NEAR OR S OF THE MASS
PIKE AROUND SUN NIGHT...BUT WILL TEND TO SLOW DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LOWER THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS
MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO N MA SUN NIGHT...BUT STILL COULD SEE
SPOTTY CONVECTION ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS
GOING THROUGH AROUND 06Z...THEN SLOWLY LOWER ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN AREAS AFTER THAT. PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE
ROUTE 2 AREA BY AROUND SUNRISE MON...BUT TIMING IS STILL IN
QUESTION.

MONDAY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS MOVING THE FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODEL SUITE.
LOOKS LIKE THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP LINGERS THROUGH MON AND EVEN INTO
MON NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA. WINDS DO
START TO SHIFT AROUND TO N-NE ACROSS CENTRAL AND N MA SO THIS WILL
CUT BACK ON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN. FOR
NOW...TEND TO TAPER OFF PRECIP BY MON NIGHT ACROSS MOST
AREAS...BUT DO LINGER IT ALONG THE S COAST THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
60S...AND MAY NOT EVEN BREAK 60 ALONG THE E COAST WITH ONSHORE
WINDS.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...PRECIP SHOULD FINALLY PUSH OFF THE S COAST BY
AROUND MIDDAY TUE AT THE LATEST. NE WINDS PICK UP AS HIGH PRES
CROSSES NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. HAVE CARRIED A
DRY AND SEASONABLE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS SHIFT TO W-NW BUT SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. MAY SEE SOME WIND
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ALONG THE S COAST EARLY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER SHRA DISSIPATE AND SKIES
BECOME MAINLY CLEAR THIS EVENING. SOME LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
LOOK TO LINGER ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS THROUGH 07Z-09Z
THEN SHOULD IMPROVE. MAY BE SOME LOCALIZED GROUND FOG AT TYPICALLY
PRONE AIRPORTS.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. EXPECT SEA
BREEZES WITH WINDS SHIFTING MAINLY TO THE E LATE IN THE DAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. ONLY ISSUE IS EXACT TIMING
OF POTENTIAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. EXACT TIMING OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR SO.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS...
THEN CONDITIONS IMPROVE. SHRA AND SCT TSRA SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH
SAT NIGHT...WITH AREAS OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. SW WINDS GUSTING TO
20-25 KT MAINLY ACROSS E MA/RI SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. DIMINISHING
WINDS OVERNIGHT SAT.

SUNDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING
THE DAY WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS SHIFT TO N-NE
DURING THE DAY...THEN BECOME NE SUN NIGHT WHICH MAY GUST UP TO
AROUND 20 KT ALONG THE S COAST. SHOWERS LINGER SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...SCT SHOWERS LINGERING WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY
BUT WILL IMPROVE FROM N-S DURING THE DAY EXCEPT ALONG THE S COAST
WHERE SHOWERS WILL HANG IN THROUGH SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR
IN ANY SHOWERS THERE SUN NIGHT. NE WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 ACROSS
OUTER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. MAY SEE ISOLD SHOWERS EARLY TUE
ALONG S COAST BUT SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE. NE WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT
STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SMALL CRAFTS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THIS EVENING. SEAS ARE NEAR 5 FT
ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND WIND GUSTS NEAR SHORE ARE 25-30 KT.
CURRENT TIMING IS THROUGH ABOUT 10 PM...WHICH IS PRETTY CLOSE TO
WHEN CONDITIONS SHOULD COME TO AN END.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SOME STRATUS/FOG IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ON THE SRN
WATERS TOMORROW NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...SW WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST UP TO 25 KT ACROSS THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS...AND POSSIBLY ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS SAT
AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT ON ALL THE OUTER WATERS...
POSSIBLY INTO RI AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING SAT NIGHT. VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN PATCHY FOG ALONG S COASTAL
WATERS EARLY...THEN SHOULD IMPROVE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE WATERS. MAY SEE BRIEF
GUSTS TO 25 KT AS FRONT PASSES DURING SUNDAY...THEN WILL STALL
NEAR OR JUST S OF THE S COAST SUN NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO E-NE AS
FRONT PASSES. AREAS OF SHOWERS WITH SCT THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL VSBY
RESTRICTIONS.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY NE WINDS. GUSTS TO 25 KT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE.
SEAS BUILD UP TO 6-8 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS TO E OF
CAPE COD...AND UP TO 5 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE
LINGERING SHOWERS DURING MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/EVT
NEAR TERM...DOODY/EVT
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DOODY/EVT
MARINE...DOODY/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 282351
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
751 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT SLOWS DOWN NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OVERNIGHT. ON FRIDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING A GREATER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY
LINGER NEAR OUR AREA INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BEGAN TO DISSIPATE AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MOVED ACROSS NE AND CENTRAL MA INTO N CENTRAL CT AT AROUND 22Z.
THEY HAVE PRETTY MUCH ENDED BY AROUND 23Z...EXCEPT FOR ONE LONE
CELL ACROSS MASS/IPSWICH BAYS WHICH SHOULD ALSO DISSIPATE AS IT
MOVES OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

FRONT TENDING TO SLOW AS IT APPROACHES THE S COAST AS WAS
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. HOWEVER...DRY AIR CONTINUES TO WORK IN BEHIND
THE FRONT...SO WILL SEE SKIES TEND TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT.
NOTING SOME LOW CLOUDS ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS AT 23Z.
THOSE COULD LINGER THROUGH MOST OF IF NOT ALL NIGHT DEPENDING UPON
IF AND/OR WHEN THE FRONT REACHES THAT AREA. HAVE KEPT MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

HAVE UPDATED NEAR TERM GRIDS TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAY SEE A LITTLE BIT OF TRAPPED MOISTURE BENEATH THE BUILDING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION/DRYING ALOFT. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY
GROUND FOG PARTICULARLY AREAS WHERE ANY HEAVIER RAIN FELL IN
STORMS AND/OR NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OVERNIGHT. HAVE PATCHY FOG IN
THE FORECAST. DEWPTS WILL BE DROPPING...BUT LEFTOVER CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS AND THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT WILL PREVENT
TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY FALLING OFF THE TABLE. EXPECT MINS MAINLY IN
THE MID-UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY CREST OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT GRADUALLY
SHIFTING BACK TO THE S...FROM THE NW THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THE
LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT LOCAL SEA BREEZES TO LIMIT DIURNAL TEMP
TRENDS NEAR THE COASTLINES. INLAND HOWEVER...WITH SOME
DOWNSLOPING...CT VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE MID 80S.
MAINLY UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE AWAY FROM THE COAST.

TOMORROW NIGHT...
ALTHOUGH SFC HIGH PRES CENTER WILL BE SHIFTING TO WELL S OF NOVA
SCOTIA...UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THANKS TO STEADY
WARM ADVECTION UPSTREAM. THIS WILL KEEP ANY ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH ANOTHER SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...WELL TO THE W. EXPECT ONLY
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE W OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY CAVEAT MAY
BE NEAR S COASTAL REGIONS...WHERE SLY FLOW AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN
DWPTS COULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LOCALIZED MARINE FOG AND
STRATUS ONCE AGAIN. THIS RISE IN DWPTS WILL ALSO KEEP MINS UP A
BIT...MAINLY DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE COOLEST SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

OVERALL UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG EASTERN SEABOARD APPEARS TO
BREAK DOWN SATURDAY...THEN TROUGH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA BEGINS TO
SHIFT E LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE REGION AS IT RUNS PARALLEL TO THE
UPPER FLOW. TIMING ISSUES COME IN PLAY FROM MONDAY ONWARD...
DEPENDING UPON HOW FAR S THE FRONT FINALLY SETTLES WHILE HIGH
PRES BUILDS OUT OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES EASTWARD.

LEANED TOWARD THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE EARLY IN THIS PERIOD THEN
TRANSITIONED OVER THE GEFS AND ECENS GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWED A BIT
BETTER CONTINUITY.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY...HIGH PRES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD PUSHES FURTHER
OFFSHORE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...WITH GOOD SW WIND FLOW AND
INCREASING HUMIDITY MOVING NE INTO THE REGION. MODELS TENDING TO
SLOW THE PROGRESS OF THE APPROACHING FRONT OUT OF WESTERN QUEBEC
AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN AND SHIFTS E. HAVE MENTION
OF CHANCE POPS MOVING INTO WESTERN AREAS DURING SAT AFTERNOON...
THEN SHOULD PUSH SLOWLY SE SAT NIGHT.

GOOD INSTABILITY WITH THIS FRONT AS K INDICES INCREASE TO THE
LOWER-MID 30S. HAVE MENTIONED CHANCE POPS...BUT MENTIONED ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SAT NIGHT. NOTING INCREASING PWATS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AS WELL...UP TO 1.7 INCHES DURING
SAT NIGHT SO COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY
ACTIVITY. WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS REACH AROUND 80 INLAND...BUT ONLY IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST. MAY SEE
SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO AROUND 25-30 MPH ACROSS RI/SE MA SAT
AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

SUNDAY...LOOKS LIKE BEST SHOT OF MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION SUN/SUN NIGHT. CARRYING CAT POPS NEAR/ALONG THE SLOWLY
MOVING FRONT...AS WELL AS SOME SCT THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS INCREASE
TO 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES...SO COULD ALSO SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
AT THIS POINT...THINK THE FRONT WILL PUSH NEAR OR S OF THE MASS
PIKE AROUND SUN NIGHT...BUT WILL TEND TO SLOW DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LOWER THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS
MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO N MA SUN NIGHT...BUT STILL COULD SEE
SPOTTY CONVECTION ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS
GOING THROUGH AROUND 06Z...THEN SLOWLY LOWER ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN AREAS AFTER THAT. PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE
ROUTE 2 AREA BY AROUND SUNRISE MON...BUT TIMING IS STILL IN
QUESTION.

MONDAY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS MOVING THE FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODEL SUITE.
LOOKS LIKE THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP LINGERS THROUGH MON AND EVEN INTO
MON NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA. WINDS DO
START TO SHIFT AROUND TO N-NE ACROSS CENTRAL AND N MA SO THIS WILL
CUT BACK ON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN. FOR
NOW...TEND TO TAPER OFF PRECIP BY MON NIGHT ACROSS MOST
AREAS...BUT DO LINGER IT ALONG THE S COAST THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
60S...AND MAY NOT EVEN BREAK 60 ALONG THE E COAST WITH ONSHORE
WINDS.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...PRECIP SHOULD FINALLY PUSH OFF THE S COAST BY
AROUND MIDDAY TUE AT THE LATEST. NE WINDS PICK UP AS HIGH PRES
CROSSES NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. HAVE CARRIED A
DRY AND SEASONABLE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS SHIFT TO W-NW BUT SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. MAY SEE SOME WIND
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ALONG THE S COAST EARLY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER SHRA DISSIPATE AND SKIES
BECOME MAINLY CLEAR THIS EVENING. SOME LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
LOOK TO LINGER ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS THROUGH 07Z-09Z
THEN SHOULD IMPROVE. MAY BE SOME LOCALIZED GROUND FOG AT TYPICALLY
PRONE AIRPORTS.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. EXPECT SEA
BREEZES WITH WINDS SHIFTING MAINLY TO THE E LATE IN THE DAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. ONLY ISSUE IS EXACT TIMING
OF POTENTIAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. EXACT TIMING OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR SO.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS...
THEN CONDITIONS IMPROVE. SHRA AND SCT TSRA SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH
SAT NIGHT...WITH AREAS OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. SW WINDS GUSTING TO
20-25 KT MAINLY ACROSS E MA/RI SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. DIMINISHING
WINDS OVERNIGHT SAT.

SUNDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING
THE DAY WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS SHIFT TO N-NE
DURING THE DAY...THEN BECOME NE SUN NIGHT WHICH MAY GUST UP TO
AROUND 20 KT ALONG THE S COAST. SHOWERS LINGER SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...SCT SHOWERS LINGERING WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY
BUT WILL IMPROVE FROM N-S DURING THE DAY EXCEPT ALONG THE S COAST
WHERE SHOWERS WILL HANG IN THROUGH SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR
IN ANY SHOWERS THERE SUN NIGHT. NE WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 ACROSS
OUTER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. MAY SEE ISOLD SHOWERS EARLY TUE
ALONG S COAST BUT SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE. NE WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT
STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SMALL CRAFTS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THIS EVENING. SEAS ARE NEAR 5 FT
ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND WIND GUSTS NEAR SHORE ARE 25-30 KT.
CURRENT TIMING IS THROUGH ABOUT 10 PM...WHICH IS PRETTY CLOSE TO
WHEN CONDITIONS SHOULD COME TO AN END.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SOME STRATUS/FOG IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ON THE SRN
WATERS TOMORROW NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...SW WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST UP TO 25 KT ACROSS THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS...AND POSSIBLY ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS SAT
AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT ON ALL THE OUTER WATERS...
POSSIBLY INTO RI AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING SAT NIGHT. VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN PATCHY FOG ALONG S COASTAL
WATERS EARLY...THEN SHOULD IMPROVE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE WATERS. MAY SEE BRIEF
GUSTS TO 25 KT AS FRONT PASSES DURING SUNDAY...THEN WILL STALL
NEAR OR JUST S OF THE S COAST SUN NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO E-NE AS
FRONT PASSES. AREAS OF SHOWERS WITH SCT THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL VSBY
RESTRICTIONS.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY NE WINDS. GUSTS TO 25 KT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE.
SEAS BUILD UP TO 6-8 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS TO E OF
CAPE COD...AND UP TO 5 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE
LINGERING SHOWERS DURING MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/EVT
NEAR TERM...DOODY/EVT
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DOODY/EVT
MARINE...DOODY/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 282109
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
509 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A WIDESPREAD...SOAKING RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED. ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING A GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY LINGER NEAR OUR AREA INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING BY
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
*** SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN PLACE THROUGH THIS EVENING ***

WEAKENING AND SLOWING COLD FRONT IS WITHIN 40 MILES OF THE MA/CT
BORDER AND CONTINUING E SHIFT. HAVE SEEN PLENTY OF CLEARING
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH HAVE
ALLOWED MIX LAYER CAPES TO EXCEED 1000J/KG. 0-6KM SHEAR STILL
HOLDING ACROSS MUCH OF CT/MA/NRN RI AT OR AROUND 45 KT WITH SOME
LOW LVL HELICITY ESPECIALLY CONCENTRATED IN THE CT VALLEY...WHERE
WINDS BACK TO THE S. ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE CONVECTION FIRING
AROUND 18Z. THE CORRIDOR OF LEAST STABILITY LAY FROM CENTRAL
CT...THROUGH TO NE MA...SO SUSPECT AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE
THROUGH THIS REGION CONTINUED FIRING OF MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS UNTIL
IT REACHES THE SE AREAS...WHERE INSTABILITY/FORCING ARE BOTH
LACKING. MAIN ISSUES WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG WINDS WITH
LOCALIZED BOWING SEGMENTS ENHANCED BY INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS. SOME
HAIL CAPE STILL AVAILABLE...AROUND 200-300 J/KG. SEVERE WATCH
REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH 23Z.

MESO-SCALE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT SLOWING TO A NEAR STALL AROUND
THE S COAST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z FRI. WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR MOVING ALOFT PER WV
IMAGERY...SUSPECT ANY REMNANT CONVECTION WILL COME TO AN END
MAINLY 03Z-06Z. ONLY ISSUE IS COASTAL WATERS...WHICH MAY HOLD ON
TO A LITTLE BIT MORE MID LVL INSTABILITY ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER.
GIVEN THE LATE TIMING...COULD ALSO BE A LITTLE BIT OF TRAPPED
MOISTURE BENEATH THE BUILDING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION/DRYING ALOFT.
THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG PARTICULARLY AREAS WHERE
SIG RAINFALL FELL IN STORMS AND/OR NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OVERNIGHT.
HAVE PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST. DWPTS WILL BE DROPPING...BUT
LEFTOVER CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY FALLING OFF THE TABLE.
EXPECT MINS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY CREST OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT GRADUALLY
SHIFTING BACK TO THE S...FROM THE NW THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THE
LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT LOCAL SEA BREEZES TO LIMIT DIURNAL TEMP
TRENDS NEAR THE COASTLINES. INLAND HOWEVER...WITH SOME
DOWNSLOPING...CT VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE MID 80S.
MAINLY UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE AWAY FROM THE COAST.

TOMORROW NIGHT...
ALTHOUGH SFC HIGH PRES CENTER WILL BE SHIFTING TO WELL S OF NOVA
SCOTIA...UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THANKS TO STEADY
WARM ADVECTION UPSTREAM. THIS WILL KEEP ANY ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH ANOTHER SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...WELL TO THE W. EXPECT ONLY
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE W OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY CAVEAT MAY
BE NEAR S COASTAL REGIONS...WHERE SLY FLOW AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN
DWPTS COULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LOCALIZED MARINE FOG AND
STRATUS ONCE AGAIN. THIS RISE IN DWPTS WILL ALSO KEEP MINS UP A
BIT...MAINLY DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE COOLEST SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

OVERALL UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG EASTERN SEABOARD APPEARS TO
BREAK DOWN SATURDAY...THEN TROUGH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA BEGINS TO
SHIFT E LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE REGION AS IT RUNS PARALLEL TO THE
UPPER FLOW. TIMING ISSUES COME IN PLAY FROM MONDAY ONWARD...
DEPENDING UPON HOW FAR S THE FRONT FINALLY SETTLES WHILE HIGH
PRES BUILDS OUT OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES EASTWARD.

LEANED TOWARD THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE EARLY IN THIS PERIOD THEN
TRANSITIONED OVER THE GEFS AND ECENS GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWED A BIT
BETTER CONTINUITY.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY...HIGH PRES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD PUSHES FURTHER
OFFSHORE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...WITH GOOD SW WIND FLOW AND
INCREASING HUMIDITY MOVING NE INTO THE REGION. MODELS TENDING TO
SLOW THE PROGRESS OF THE APPROACHING FRONT OUT OF WESTERN QUEBEC
AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN AND SHIFTS E. HAVE MENTION
OF CHANCE POPS MOVING INTO WESTERN AREAS DURING SAT AFTERNOON...
THEN SHOULD PUSH SLOWLY SE SAT NIGHT.

GOOD INSTABILITY WITH THIS FRONT AS K INDICES INCREASE TO THE
LOWER-MID 30S. HAVE MENTIONED CHANCE POPS...BUT MENTIONED ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SAT NIGHT. NOTING INCREASING PWATS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AS WELL...UP TO 1.7 INCHES DURING
SAT NIGHT SO COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY
ACTIVITY. WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS REACH AROUND 80 INLAND...BUT ONLY IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST. MAY SEE
SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO AROUND 25-30 MPH ACROSS RI/SE MA SAT
AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

SUNDAY...LOOKS LIKE BEST SHOT OF MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION SUN/SUN NIGHT. CARRYING CAT POPS NEAR/ALONG THE SLOWLY
MOVING FRONT...AS WELL AS SOME SCT THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS INCREASE
TO 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES...SO COULD ALSO SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
AT THIS POINT...THINK THE FRONT WILL PUSH NEAR OR S OF THE MASS
PIKE AROUND SUN NIGHT...BUT WILL TEND TO SLOW DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LOWER THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS
MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO N MA SUN NIGHT...BUT STILL COULD SEE
SPOTTY CONVECTION ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS
GOING THROUGH AROUND 06Z...THEN SLOWLY LOWER ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN AREAS AFTER THAT. PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE
ROUTE 2 AREA BY AROUND SUNRISE MON...BUT TIMING IS STILL IN
QUESTION.

MONDAY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS MOVING THE FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODEL SUITE.
LOOKS LIKE THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP LINGERS THROUGH MON AND EVEN INTO
MON NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA. WINDS DO
START TO SHIFT AROUND TO N-NE ACROSS CENTRAL AND N MA SO THIS WILL
CUT BACK ON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN. FOR
NOW...TEND TO TAPER OFF PRECIP BY MON NIGHT ACROSS MOST
AREAS...BUT DO LINGER IT ALONG THE S COAST THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
60S...AND MAY NOT EVEN BREAK 60 ALONG THE E COAST WITH ONSHORE
WINDS.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...PRECIP SHOULD FINALLY PUSH OFF THE S COAST BY
AROUND MIDDAY TUE AT THE LATEST. NE WINDS PICK UP AS HIGH PRES
CROSSES NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. HAVE CARRIED A
DRY AND SEASONABLE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE...LOWER IN EXACT TIMING.
EXPECT GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN MA AT 18Z...REACHING CENTRAL MA/CT BY 20Z...THEN ERN MA
AND RI AROUND 22Z. COULD BE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL WITH SOME OF
THESE STORMS...AS WELL AS HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THESE WILL BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE MAINLY ACROSS SE MA TOWARD 00Z THIS EVENING. BRIEF
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE STORMS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS WILL SHIFT MAINLY W-NW...WITH MAINLY VFR AFTER SKIES/SHRA
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. MAY BE SOME LOCALIZED GROUND FOG AT
TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. EXPECT SEA BREEZES WITH WINDS SHIFTING MAINLY TO THE E
LATE IN THE DAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. ONLY ISSUE IS EXACT TIMING
OF POTENTIAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. EXACT TIMING OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR SO.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS...
THEN CONDITIONS IMPROVE. SHRA AND SCT TSRA SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH
SAT NIGHT...WITH AREAS OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. SW WINDS GUSTING TO
20-25 KT MAINLY ACROSS E MA/RI SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. DIMINISHING
WINDS OVERNIGHT SAT.

SUNDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING
THE DAY WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS SHIFT TO N-NE
DURING THE DAY...THEN BECOME NE SUN NIGHT WHICH MAY GUST UP TO
AROUND 20 KT ALONG THE S COAST. SHOWERS LINGER SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...SCT SHOWERS LINGERING WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY
BUT WILL IMPROVE FROM N-S DURING THE DAY EXCEPT ALONG THE S COAST
WHERE SHOWERS WILL HANG IN THROUGH SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR
IN ANY SHOWERS THERE SUN NIGHT. NE WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 ACROSS
OUTER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. MAY SEE ISOLD SHOWERS EARLY TUE
ALONG S COAST BUT SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE. NE WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT
STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY INTO FRIDAY/...

THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WILL MAINTAIN ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AS THEY STAND. SEAS
ARE NEARING 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND WIND GUSTS NEAR SHORE
ARE 25-30 KT. CURRENT TIMING IS THROUGH ABOUT 10PM LOCAL...WHICH
IS PRETTY CLOSE TO WHEN CONDITIONS SHOULD COME TO AN END. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR SOME LEFTOVER THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH MAINLY 22Z-
02Z ALONG THE E COAST OF MA...LOCALLY STRONGER CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SOME STRATUS/FOG IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ON THE SRN
WATERS TOMORROW NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...SW WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST UP TO 25 KT ACROSS THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS...AND POSSIBLY ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS SAT
AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT ON ALL THE OUTER WATERS...
POSSIBLY INTO RI AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING SAT NIGHT. VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN PATCHY FOG ALONG S COASTAL
WATERS EARLY...THEN SHOULD IMPROVE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE WATERS. MAY SEE BRIEF
GUSTS TO 25 KT AS FRONT PASSES DURING SUNDAY...THEN WILL STALL
NEAR OR JUST S OF THE S COAST SUN NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO E-NE AS
FRONT PASSES. AREAS OF SHOWERS WITH SCT THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL VSBY
RESTRICTIONS.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY NE WINDS. GUSTS TO 25 KT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE.
SEAS BUILD UP TO 6-8 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS TO E OF
CAPE COD...AND UP TO 5 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE
LINGERING SHOWERS DURING MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/EVT
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DOODY/EVT
MARINE...DOODY/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 282109
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
509 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A WIDESPREAD...SOAKING RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED. ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING A GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY LINGER NEAR OUR AREA INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING BY
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
*** SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN PLACE THROUGH THIS EVENING ***

WEAKENING AND SLOWING COLD FRONT IS WITHIN 40 MILES OF THE MA/CT
BORDER AND CONTINUING E SHIFT. HAVE SEEN PLENTY OF CLEARING
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH HAVE
ALLOWED MIX LAYER CAPES TO EXCEED 1000J/KG. 0-6KM SHEAR STILL
HOLDING ACROSS MUCH OF CT/MA/NRN RI AT OR AROUND 45 KT WITH SOME
LOW LVL HELICITY ESPECIALLY CONCENTRATED IN THE CT VALLEY...WHERE
WINDS BACK TO THE S. ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE CONVECTION FIRING
AROUND 18Z. THE CORRIDOR OF LEAST STABILITY LAY FROM CENTRAL
CT...THROUGH TO NE MA...SO SUSPECT AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE
THROUGH THIS REGION CONTINUED FIRING OF MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS UNTIL
IT REACHES THE SE AREAS...WHERE INSTABILITY/FORCING ARE BOTH
LACKING. MAIN ISSUES WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG WINDS WITH
LOCALIZED BOWING SEGMENTS ENHANCED BY INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS. SOME
HAIL CAPE STILL AVAILABLE...AROUND 200-300 J/KG. SEVERE WATCH
REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH 23Z.

MESO-SCALE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT SLOWING TO A NEAR STALL AROUND
THE S COAST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z FRI. WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR MOVING ALOFT PER WV
IMAGERY...SUSPECT ANY REMNANT CONVECTION WILL COME TO AN END
MAINLY 03Z-06Z. ONLY ISSUE IS COASTAL WATERS...WHICH MAY HOLD ON
TO A LITTLE BIT MORE MID LVL INSTABILITY ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER.
GIVEN THE LATE TIMING...COULD ALSO BE A LITTLE BIT OF TRAPPED
MOISTURE BENEATH THE BUILDING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION/DRYING ALOFT.
THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG PARTICULARLY AREAS WHERE
SIG RAINFALL FELL IN STORMS AND/OR NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OVERNIGHT.
HAVE PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST. DWPTS WILL BE DROPPING...BUT
LEFTOVER CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY FALLING OFF THE TABLE.
EXPECT MINS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY CREST OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT GRADUALLY
SHIFTING BACK TO THE S...FROM THE NW THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THE
LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT LOCAL SEA BREEZES TO LIMIT DIURNAL TEMP
TRENDS NEAR THE COASTLINES. INLAND HOWEVER...WITH SOME
DOWNSLOPING...CT VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE MID 80S.
MAINLY UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE AWAY FROM THE COAST.

TOMORROW NIGHT...
ALTHOUGH SFC HIGH PRES CENTER WILL BE SHIFTING TO WELL S OF NOVA
SCOTIA...UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THANKS TO STEADY
WARM ADVECTION UPSTREAM. THIS WILL KEEP ANY ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH ANOTHER SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...WELL TO THE W. EXPECT ONLY
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE W OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY CAVEAT MAY
BE NEAR S COASTAL REGIONS...WHERE SLY FLOW AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN
DWPTS COULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LOCALIZED MARINE FOG AND
STRATUS ONCE AGAIN. THIS RISE IN DWPTS WILL ALSO KEEP MINS UP A
BIT...MAINLY DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE COOLEST SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

OVERALL UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG EASTERN SEABOARD APPEARS TO
BREAK DOWN SATURDAY...THEN TROUGH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA BEGINS TO
SHIFT E LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE REGION AS IT RUNS PARALLEL TO THE
UPPER FLOW. TIMING ISSUES COME IN PLAY FROM MONDAY ONWARD...
DEPENDING UPON HOW FAR S THE FRONT FINALLY SETTLES WHILE HIGH
PRES BUILDS OUT OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES EASTWARD.

LEANED TOWARD THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE EARLY IN THIS PERIOD THEN
TRANSITIONED OVER THE GEFS AND ECENS GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWED A BIT
BETTER CONTINUITY.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY...HIGH PRES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD PUSHES FURTHER
OFFSHORE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...WITH GOOD SW WIND FLOW AND
INCREASING HUMIDITY MOVING NE INTO THE REGION. MODELS TENDING TO
SLOW THE PROGRESS OF THE APPROACHING FRONT OUT OF WESTERN QUEBEC
AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN AND SHIFTS E. HAVE MENTION
OF CHANCE POPS MOVING INTO WESTERN AREAS DURING SAT AFTERNOON...
THEN SHOULD PUSH SLOWLY SE SAT NIGHT.

GOOD INSTABILITY WITH THIS FRONT AS K INDICES INCREASE TO THE
LOWER-MID 30S. HAVE MENTIONED CHANCE POPS...BUT MENTIONED ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SAT NIGHT. NOTING INCREASING PWATS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AS WELL...UP TO 1.7 INCHES DURING
SAT NIGHT SO COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY
ACTIVITY. WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS REACH AROUND 80 INLAND...BUT ONLY IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST. MAY SEE
SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO AROUND 25-30 MPH ACROSS RI/SE MA SAT
AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

SUNDAY...LOOKS LIKE BEST SHOT OF MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION SUN/SUN NIGHT. CARRYING CAT POPS NEAR/ALONG THE SLOWLY
MOVING FRONT...AS WELL AS SOME SCT THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS INCREASE
TO 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES...SO COULD ALSO SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
AT THIS POINT...THINK THE FRONT WILL PUSH NEAR OR S OF THE MASS
PIKE AROUND SUN NIGHT...BUT WILL TEND TO SLOW DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LOWER THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS
MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO N MA SUN NIGHT...BUT STILL COULD SEE
SPOTTY CONVECTION ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS
GOING THROUGH AROUND 06Z...THEN SLOWLY LOWER ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN AREAS AFTER THAT. PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE
ROUTE 2 AREA BY AROUND SUNRISE MON...BUT TIMING IS STILL IN
QUESTION.

MONDAY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES AS MOVING THE FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODEL SUITE.
LOOKS LIKE THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP LINGERS THROUGH MON AND EVEN INTO
MON NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA. WINDS DO
START TO SHIFT AROUND TO N-NE ACROSS CENTRAL AND N MA SO THIS WILL
CUT BACK ON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN. FOR
NOW...TEND TO TAPER OFF PRECIP BY MON NIGHT ACROSS MOST
AREAS...BUT DO LINGER IT ALONG THE S COAST THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
60S...AND MAY NOT EVEN BREAK 60 ALONG THE E COAST WITH ONSHORE
WINDS.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...PRECIP SHOULD FINALLY PUSH OFF THE S COAST BY
AROUND MIDDAY TUE AT THE LATEST. NE WINDS PICK UP AS HIGH PRES
CROSSES NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. HAVE CARRIED A
DRY AND SEASONABLE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE...LOWER IN EXACT TIMING.
EXPECT GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN MA AT 18Z...REACHING CENTRAL MA/CT BY 20Z...THEN ERN MA
AND RI AROUND 22Z. COULD BE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL WITH SOME OF
THESE STORMS...AS WELL AS HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THESE WILL BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE MAINLY ACROSS SE MA TOWARD 00Z THIS EVENING. BRIEF
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE STORMS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS WILL SHIFT MAINLY W-NW...WITH MAINLY VFR AFTER SKIES/SHRA
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. MAY BE SOME LOCALIZED GROUND FOG AT
TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. EXPECT SEA BREEZES WITH WINDS SHIFTING MAINLY TO THE E
LATE IN THE DAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. ONLY ISSUE IS EXACT TIMING
OF POTENTIAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. EXACT TIMING OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR SO.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS...
THEN CONDITIONS IMPROVE. SHRA AND SCT TSRA SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH
SAT NIGHT...WITH AREAS OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. SW WINDS GUSTING TO
20-25 KT MAINLY ACROSS E MA/RI SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. DIMINISHING
WINDS OVERNIGHT SAT.

SUNDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING
THE DAY WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS SHIFT TO N-NE
DURING THE DAY...THEN BECOME NE SUN NIGHT WHICH MAY GUST UP TO
AROUND 20 KT ALONG THE S COAST. SHOWERS LINGER SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...SCT SHOWERS LINGERING WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY
BUT WILL IMPROVE FROM N-S DURING THE DAY EXCEPT ALONG THE S COAST
WHERE SHOWERS WILL HANG IN THROUGH SUN NIGHT. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR
IN ANY SHOWERS THERE SUN NIGHT. NE WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 ACROSS
OUTER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. MAY SEE ISOLD SHOWERS EARLY TUE
ALONG S COAST BUT SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE. NE WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT
STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY INTO FRIDAY/...

THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WILL MAINTAIN ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AS THEY STAND. SEAS
ARE NEARING 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND WIND GUSTS NEAR SHORE
ARE 25-30 KT. CURRENT TIMING IS THROUGH ABOUT 10PM LOCAL...WHICH
IS PRETTY CLOSE TO WHEN CONDITIONS SHOULD COME TO AN END. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR SOME LEFTOVER THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH MAINLY 22Z-
02Z ALONG THE E COAST OF MA...LOCALLY STRONGER CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SOME STRATUS/FOG IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ON THE SRN
WATERS TOMORROW NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...SW WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST UP TO 25 KT ACROSS THE
EASTERN OUTER WATERS...AND POSSIBLY ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS SAT
AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT ON ALL THE OUTER WATERS...
POSSIBLY INTO RI AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING SAT NIGHT. VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN PATCHY FOG ALONG S COASTAL
WATERS EARLY...THEN SHOULD IMPROVE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE WATERS. MAY SEE BRIEF
GUSTS TO 25 KT AS FRONT PASSES DURING SUNDAY...THEN WILL STALL
NEAR OR JUST S OF THE S COAST SUN NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO E-NE AS
FRONT PASSES. AREAS OF SHOWERS WITH SCT THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL VSBY
RESTRICTIONS.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY NE WINDS. GUSTS TO 25 KT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE.
SEAS BUILD UP TO 6-8 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS TO E OF
CAPE COD...AND UP TO 5 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE
LINGERING SHOWERS DURING MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/EVT
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DOODY/EVT
MARINE...DOODY/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 282002
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
402 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A WIDESPREAD/SOAKING RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED. ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS.
FOR THIS WEEKEND...A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL BRING ARE GREATER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY
LINGER NEAR OUR AREA INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
*** SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN PLACE THROUGH THIS EVENING ***

WEAKENING AND SLOWING COLD FRONT IS WITHIN 40 MILES OF THE MA/CT
BORDER AND CONTINUING E SHIFT. HAVE SEEN PLENTY OF CLEARING
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH HAVE
ALLOWED MIX LAYER CAPES TO EXCEED 1000J/KG. 0-6KM SHEAR STILL
HOLDING ACROSS MUCH OF CT/MA/NRN RI AT OR AROUND 45 KT WITH SOME
LOW LVL HELICITY ESPECIALLY CONCENTRATED IN THE CT VALLEY...WHERE
WINDS BACK TO THE S. ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE CONVECTION FIRING
AROUND 18Z. THE CORRIDOR OF LEAST STABILITY LAY FROM CENTRAL
CT...THROUGH TO NE MA...SO SUSPECT AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE
THROUGH THIS REGION CONTINUED FIRING OF MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS UNTIL
IT REACHES THE SE AREAS...WHERE INSTABILITY/FORCING ARE BOTH
LACKING. MAIN ISSUES WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG WINDS WITH
LOCALIZED BOWING SEGMENTS ENHANCED BY INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS. SOME
HAIL CAPE STILL AVAILABLE...AROUND 200-300 J/KG. SEVERE WATCH
REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH 23Z.

MESO-SCALE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT SLOWING TO A NEAR STALL AROUND
THE S COAST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z FRI. WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR MOVING ALOFT PER WV
IMAGERY...SUSPECT ANY REMNANT CONVECTION WILL COME TO AN END
MAINLY 03Z-06Z. ONLY ISSUE IS COASTAL WATERS...WHICH MAY HOLD ON
TO A LITTLE BIT MORE MID LVL INSTABILITY ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER.
GIVEN THE LATE TIMING...COULD ALSO BE A LITTLE BIT OF TRAPPED
MOISTURE BENEATH THE BUILDING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION/DRYING ALOFT.
THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG PARTICULARLY AREAS WHERE
SIG RAINFALL FELL IN STORMS AND/OR NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OVERNIGHT.
HAVE PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST. DWPTS WILL BE DROPPING...BUT
LEFTOVER CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY FALLING OFF THE TABLE.
EXPECT MINS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY CREST OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT GRADUALLY
SHIFTING BACK TO THE S...FROM THE NW THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THE
LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT LOCAL SEA BREEZES TO LIMIT DIURNAL TEMP
TRENDS NEAR THE COASTLINES. INLAND HOWEVER...WITH SOME
DOWNSLOPING...CT VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE MID 80S.
MAINLY UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE AWAY FROM THE COAST.

TOMORROW NIGHT...
ALTHOUGH SFC HIGH PRES CENTER WILL BE SHIFTING TO WELL S OF NOVA
SCOTIA...UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THANKS TO STEADY
WARM ADVECTION UPSTREAM. THIS WILL KEEP ANY ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH ANOTHER SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...WELL TO THE W. EXPECT ONLY
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE W OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY CAVEAT MAY
BE NEAR S COASTAL REGIONS...WHERE SLY FLOW AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN
DWPTS COULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LOCALIZED MARINE FOG AND
STRATUS ONCE AGAIN. THIS RISE IN DWPTS WILL ALSO KEEP MINS UP A
BIT...MAINLY DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE COOLEST SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...AND A RESURGENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY WEATHER
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE...
ENABLING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO BRING INCREASING MOISTURE/HUMIDITY
TOWARDS OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST LATE IN THE DAY. WE COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT...WITH
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXTENDING EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THIS COLD FRONT PUSHES FARTHER INTO OUR AREA. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER INCREASING TO OVER 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION. EXPECTING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO CROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY...WITH A LOWER
RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY REACH THE SOUTH COAST BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER IT
STALLS NEAR OUR AREA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
POPS SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR
SOUTH OF OUR REGION A FRONT GETS PUSHED. THIS WILL AFFECT OUR
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. 28/00Z ECMWF REMAINS LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE 28/00Z GFS IN MOVING THIS FRONT FAR ENOUGH AWAY WHERE THERE
WOULD NOT BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ANYWHERE IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW EVOLUTION...WILL
KEEP AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE
GREATEST POPS TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST. DRIER WEATHER SHOULD BE MORE
PREVALENT TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LESS PROBABLE FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING...BRINGING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE...LOWER IN EXACT TIMING.
EXPECT GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN MA AT 18Z...REACHING CENTRAL MA/CT BY 20Z...THEN ERN MA
AND RI AROUND 22Z. COULD BE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL WITH SOME OF
THESE STORMS...AS WELL AS HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THESE WILL BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE MAINLY ACROSS SE MA TOWARD 00Z THIS EVENING. BRIEF
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE STORMS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS WILL SHIFT MAINLY W-NW...WITH MAINLY VFR AFTER SKIES/SHRA
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. MAY BE SOME LOCALIZED GROUND FOG AT
TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. EXPECT SEA BREEZES WITH WINDS SHIFTING MAINLY TO THE E
LATE IN THE DAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. ONLY ISSUE IS EXACT TIMING
OF POTENTIAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. EXACT TIMING OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR SO.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS...
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT NIGHT...
WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLD/SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

MONDAY...CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT MVFR WITH SCT SHOWERS SOUTH
COASTAL MA/RI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY INTO FRIDAY/...

THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WILL MAINTAIN ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AS THEY STAND. SEAS
ARE NEARING 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND WIND GUSTS NEAR SHORE ARE
25-30 KT. CURRENT TIMING IS THROUGH ABOUT 10PM LOCAL...WHICH IS
PRETTY CLOSE TO WHEN CONDITIONS SHOULD COME TO AN END. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR FOR SOME LEFTOVER THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH MAINLY 22Z-02Z
ALONG THE E COAST OF MA...LOCALLY STRONGER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SOME STRATUS/FOG IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ON THE SRN
WATERS TOMORROW NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECTING GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILD AGAIN TO
AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY...A COLD FRONT MAY LINGER NEAR THE WATERS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME...WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND GUSTS TO 20 KT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 282002
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
402 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A WIDESPREAD/SOAKING RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED. ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS.
FOR THIS WEEKEND...A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL BRING ARE GREATER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY
LINGER NEAR OUR AREA INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
*** SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN PLACE THROUGH THIS EVENING ***

WEAKENING AND SLOWING COLD FRONT IS WITHIN 40 MILES OF THE MA/CT
BORDER AND CONTINUING E SHIFT. HAVE SEEN PLENTY OF CLEARING
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH HAVE
ALLOWED MIX LAYER CAPES TO EXCEED 1000J/KG. 0-6KM SHEAR STILL
HOLDING ACROSS MUCH OF CT/MA/NRN RI AT OR AROUND 45 KT WITH SOME
LOW LVL HELICITY ESPECIALLY CONCENTRATED IN THE CT VALLEY...WHERE
WINDS BACK TO THE S. ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE CONVECTION FIRING
AROUND 18Z. THE CORRIDOR OF LEAST STABILITY LAY FROM CENTRAL
CT...THROUGH TO NE MA...SO SUSPECT AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE
THROUGH THIS REGION CONTINUED FIRING OF MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS UNTIL
IT REACHES THE SE AREAS...WHERE INSTABILITY/FORCING ARE BOTH
LACKING. MAIN ISSUES WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG WINDS WITH
LOCALIZED BOWING SEGMENTS ENHANCED BY INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS. SOME
HAIL CAPE STILL AVAILABLE...AROUND 200-300 J/KG. SEVERE WATCH
REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH 23Z.

MESO-SCALE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT SLOWING TO A NEAR STALL AROUND
THE S COAST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z FRI. WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR MOVING ALOFT PER WV
IMAGERY...SUSPECT ANY REMNANT CONVECTION WILL COME TO AN END
MAINLY 03Z-06Z. ONLY ISSUE IS COASTAL WATERS...WHICH MAY HOLD ON
TO A LITTLE BIT MORE MID LVL INSTABILITY ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER.
GIVEN THE LATE TIMING...COULD ALSO BE A LITTLE BIT OF TRAPPED
MOISTURE BENEATH THE BUILDING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION/DRYING ALOFT.
THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG PARTICULARLY AREAS WHERE
SIG RAINFALL FELL IN STORMS AND/OR NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OVERNIGHT.
HAVE PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST. DWPTS WILL BE DROPPING...BUT
LEFTOVER CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY FALLING OFF THE TABLE.
EXPECT MINS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY CREST OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT GRADUALLY
SHIFTING BACK TO THE S...FROM THE NW THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THE
LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT LOCAL SEA BREEZES TO LIMIT DIURNAL TEMP
TRENDS NEAR THE COASTLINES. INLAND HOWEVER...WITH SOME
DOWNSLOPING...CT VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE MID 80S.
MAINLY UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE AWAY FROM THE COAST.

TOMORROW NIGHT...
ALTHOUGH SFC HIGH PRES CENTER WILL BE SHIFTING TO WELL S OF NOVA
SCOTIA...UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THANKS TO STEADY
WARM ADVECTION UPSTREAM. THIS WILL KEEP ANY ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH ANOTHER SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...WELL TO THE W. EXPECT ONLY
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE W OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY CAVEAT MAY
BE NEAR S COASTAL REGIONS...WHERE SLY FLOW AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN
DWPTS COULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LOCALIZED MARINE FOG AND
STRATUS ONCE AGAIN. THIS RISE IN DWPTS WILL ALSO KEEP MINS UP A
BIT...MAINLY DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE COOLEST SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...AND A RESURGENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY WEATHER
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE...
ENABLING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO BRING INCREASING MOISTURE/HUMIDITY
TOWARDS OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST LATE IN THE DAY. WE COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT...WITH
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXTENDING EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THIS COLD FRONT PUSHES FARTHER INTO OUR AREA. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER INCREASING TO OVER 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION. EXPECTING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO CROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY...WITH A LOWER
RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY REACH THE SOUTH COAST BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER IT
STALLS NEAR OUR AREA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
POPS SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR
SOUTH OF OUR REGION A FRONT GETS PUSHED. THIS WILL AFFECT OUR
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. 28/00Z ECMWF REMAINS LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE 28/00Z GFS IN MOVING THIS FRONT FAR ENOUGH AWAY WHERE THERE
WOULD NOT BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ANYWHERE IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW EVOLUTION...WILL
KEEP AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE
GREATEST POPS TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST. DRIER WEATHER SHOULD BE MORE
PREVALENT TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LESS PROBABLE FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING...BRINGING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE...LOWER IN EXACT TIMING.
EXPECT GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN MA AT 18Z...REACHING CENTRAL MA/CT BY 20Z...THEN ERN MA
AND RI AROUND 22Z. COULD BE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL WITH SOME OF
THESE STORMS...AS WELL AS HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THESE WILL BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE MAINLY ACROSS SE MA TOWARD 00Z THIS EVENING. BRIEF
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE STORMS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS WILL SHIFT MAINLY W-NW...WITH MAINLY VFR AFTER SKIES/SHRA
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. MAY BE SOME LOCALIZED GROUND FOG AT
TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. EXPECT SEA BREEZES WITH WINDS SHIFTING MAINLY TO THE E
LATE IN THE DAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. ONLY ISSUE IS EXACT TIMING
OF POTENTIAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. EXACT TIMING OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR SO.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS...
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT NIGHT...
WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLD/SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

MONDAY...CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT MVFR WITH SCT SHOWERS SOUTH
COASTAL MA/RI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY INTO FRIDAY/...

THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WILL MAINTAIN ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AS THEY STAND. SEAS
ARE NEARING 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND WIND GUSTS NEAR SHORE ARE
25-30 KT. CURRENT TIMING IS THROUGH ABOUT 10PM LOCAL...WHICH IS
PRETTY CLOSE TO WHEN CONDITIONS SHOULD COME TO AN END. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR FOR SOME LEFTOVER THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH MAINLY 22Z-02Z
ALONG THE E COAST OF MA...LOCALLY STRONGER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SOME STRATUS/FOG IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ON THE SRN
WATERS TOMORROW NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECTING GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILD AGAIN TO
AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY...A COLD FRONT MAY LINGER NEAR THE WATERS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME...WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND GUSTS TO 20 KT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 282002
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
402 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A WIDESPREAD/SOAKING RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED. ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS.
FOR THIS WEEKEND...A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL BRING ARE GREATER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY
LINGER NEAR OUR AREA INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
*** SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN PLACE THROUGH THIS EVENING ***

WEAKENING AND SLOWING COLD FRONT IS WITHIN 40 MILES OF THE MA/CT
BORDER AND CONTINUING E SHIFT. HAVE SEEN PLENTY OF CLEARING
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH HAVE
ALLOWED MIX LAYER CAPES TO EXCEED 1000J/KG. 0-6KM SHEAR STILL
HOLDING ACROSS MUCH OF CT/MA/NRN RI AT OR AROUND 45 KT WITH SOME
LOW LVL HELICITY ESPECIALLY CONCENTRATED IN THE CT VALLEY...WHERE
WINDS BACK TO THE S. ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE CONVECTION FIRING
AROUND 18Z. THE CORRIDOR OF LEAST STABILITY LAY FROM CENTRAL
CT...THROUGH TO NE MA...SO SUSPECT AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE
THROUGH THIS REGION CONTINUED FIRING OF MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS UNTIL
IT REACHES THE SE AREAS...WHERE INSTABILITY/FORCING ARE BOTH
LACKING. MAIN ISSUES WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG WINDS WITH
LOCALIZED BOWING SEGMENTS ENHANCED BY INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS. SOME
HAIL CAPE STILL AVAILABLE...AROUND 200-300 J/KG. SEVERE WATCH
REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH 23Z.

MESO-SCALE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT SLOWING TO A NEAR STALL AROUND
THE S COAST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z FRI. WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR MOVING ALOFT PER WV
IMAGERY...SUSPECT ANY REMNANT CONVECTION WILL COME TO AN END
MAINLY 03Z-06Z. ONLY ISSUE IS COASTAL WATERS...WHICH MAY HOLD ON
TO A LITTLE BIT MORE MID LVL INSTABILITY ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER.
GIVEN THE LATE TIMING...COULD ALSO BE A LITTLE BIT OF TRAPPED
MOISTURE BENEATH THE BUILDING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION/DRYING ALOFT.
THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG PARTICULARLY AREAS WHERE
SIG RAINFALL FELL IN STORMS AND/OR NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OVERNIGHT.
HAVE PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST. DWPTS WILL BE DROPPING...BUT
LEFTOVER CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY FALLING OFF THE TABLE.
EXPECT MINS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY CREST OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT GRADUALLY
SHIFTING BACK TO THE S...FROM THE NW THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THE
LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT LOCAL SEA BREEZES TO LIMIT DIURNAL TEMP
TRENDS NEAR THE COASTLINES. INLAND HOWEVER...WITH SOME
DOWNSLOPING...CT VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE MID 80S.
MAINLY UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE AWAY FROM THE COAST.

TOMORROW NIGHT...
ALTHOUGH SFC HIGH PRES CENTER WILL BE SHIFTING TO WELL S OF NOVA
SCOTIA...UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THANKS TO STEADY
WARM ADVECTION UPSTREAM. THIS WILL KEEP ANY ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH ANOTHER SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...WELL TO THE W. EXPECT ONLY
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE W OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY CAVEAT MAY
BE NEAR S COASTAL REGIONS...WHERE SLY FLOW AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN
DWPTS COULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LOCALIZED MARINE FOG AND
STRATUS ONCE AGAIN. THIS RISE IN DWPTS WILL ALSO KEEP MINS UP A
BIT...MAINLY DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE COOLEST SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...AND A RESURGENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY WEATHER
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE...
ENABLING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO BRING INCREASING MOISTURE/HUMIDITY
TOWARDS OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST LATE IN THE DAY. WE COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT...WITH
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXTENDING EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THIS COLD FRONT PUSHES FARTHER INTO OUR AREA. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER INCREASING TO OVER 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION. EXPECTING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO CROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY...WITH A LOWER
RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY REACH THE SOUTH COAST BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER IT
STALLS NEAR OUR AREA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
POPS SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR
SOUTH OF OUR REGION A FRONT GETS PUSHED. THIS WILL AFFECT OUR
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. 28/00Z ECMWF REMAINS LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE 28/00Z GFS IN MOVING THIS FRONT FAR ENOUGH AWAY WHERE THERE
WOULD NOT BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ANYWHERE IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW EVOLUTION...WILL
KEEP AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE
GREATEST POPS TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST. DRIER WEATHER SHOULD BE MORE
PREVALENT TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LESS PROBABLE FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING...BRINGING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE...LOWER IN EXACT TIMING.
EXPECT GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN MA AT 18Z...REACHING CENTRAL MA/CT BY 20Z...THEN ERN MA
AND RI AROUND 22Z. COULD BE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL WITH SOME OF
THESE STORMS...AS WELL AS HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THESE WILL BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE MAINLY ACROSS SE MA TOWARD 00Z THIS EVENING. BRIEF
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE STORMS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS WILL SHIFT MAINLY W-NW...WITH MAINLY VFR AFTER SKIES/SHRA
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. MAY BE SOME LOCALIZED GROUND FOG AT
TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. EXPECT SEA BREEZES WITH WINDS SHIFTING MAINLY TO THE E
LATE IN THE DAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. ONLY ISSUE IS EXACT TIMING
OF POTENTIAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. EXACT TIMING OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR SO.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS...
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT NIGHT...
WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLD/SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

MONDAY...CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT MVFR WITH SCT SHOWERS SOUTH
COASTAL MA/RI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY INTO FRIDAY/...

THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WILL MAINTAIN ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AS THEY STAND. SEAS
ARE NEARING 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND WIND GUSTS NEAR SHORE ARE
25-30 KT. CURRENT TIMING IS THROUGH ABOUT 10PM LOCAL...WHICH IS
PRETTY CLOSE TO WHEN CONDITIONS SHOULD COME TO AN END. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR FOR SOME LEFTOVER THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH MAINLY 22Z-02Z
ALONG THE E COAST OF MA...LOCALLY STRONGER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SOME STRATUS/FOG IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ON THE SRN
WATERS TOMORROW NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECTING GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILD AGAIN TO
AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY...A COLD FRONT MAY LINGER NEAR THE WATERS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME...WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND GUSTS TO 20 KT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 282002
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
402 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A WIDESPREAD/SOAKING RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED. ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS.
FOR THIS WEEKEND...A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL BRING ARE GREATER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY
LINGER NEAR OUR AREA INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
*** SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN PLACE THROUGH THIS EVENING ***

WEAKENING AND SLOWING COLD FRONT IS WITHIN 40 MILES OF THE MA/CT
BORDER AND CONTINUING E SHIFT. HAVE SEEN PLENTY OF CLEARING
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH HAVE
ALLOWED MIX LAYER CAPES TO EXCEED 1000J/KG. 0-6KM SHEAR STILL
HOLDING ACROSS MUCH OF CT/MA/NRN RI AT OR AROUND 45 KT WITH SOME
LOW LVL HELICITY ESPECIALLY CONCENTRATED IN THE CT VALLEY...WHERE
WINDS BACK TO THE S. ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE CONVECTION FIRING
AROUND 18Z. THE CORRIDOR OF LEAST STABILITY LAY FROM CENTRAL
CT...THROUGH TO NE MA...SO SUSPECT AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE
THROUGH THIS REGION CONTINUED FIRING OF MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS UNTIL
IT REACHES THE SE AREAS...WHERE INSTABILITY/FORCING ARE BOTH
LACKING. MAIN ISSUES WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG WINDS WITH
LOCALIZED BOWING SEGMENTS ENHANCED BY INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS. SOME
HAIL CAPE STILL AVAILABLE...AROUND 200-300 J/KG. SEVERE WATCH
REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH 23Z.

MESO-SCALE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT SLOWING TO A NEAR STALL AROUND
THE S COAST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z FRI. WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR MOVING ALOFT PER WV
IMAGERY...SUSPECT ANY REMNANT CONVECTION WILL COME TO AN END
MAINLY 03Z-06Z. ONLY ISSUE IS COASTAL WATERS...WHICH MAY HOLD ON
TO A LITTLE BIT MORE MID LVL INSTABILITY ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER.
GIVEN THE LATE TIMING...COULD ALSO BE A LITTLE BIT OF TRAPPED
MOISTURE BENEATH THE BUILDING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION/DRYING ALOFT.
THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG PARTICULARLY AREAS WHERE
SIG RAINFALL FELL IN STORMS AND/OR NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OVERNIGHT.
HAVE PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST. DWPTS WILL BE DROPPING...BUT
LEFTOVER CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY FALLING OFF THE TABLE.
EXPECT MINS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY CREST OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...BUT GRADUALLY
SHIFTING BACK TO THE S...FROM THE NW THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THE
LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT LOCAL SEA BREEZES TO LIMIT DIURNAL TEMP
TRENDS NEAR THE COASTLINES. INLAND HOWEVER...WITH SOME
DOWNSLOPING...CT VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE MID 80S.
MAINLY UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE AWAY FROM THE COAST.

TOMORROW NIGHT...
ALTHOUGH SFC HIGH PRES CENTER WILL BE SHIFTING TO WELL S OF NOVA
SCOTIA...UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THANKS TO STEADY
WARM ADVECTION UPSTREAM. THIS WILL KEEP ANY ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH ANOTHER SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...WELL TO THE W. EXPECT ONLY
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE W OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY CAVEAT MAY
BE NEAR S COASTAL REGIONS...WHERE SLY FLOW AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN
DWPTS COULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LOCALIZED MARINE FOG AND
STRATUS ONCE AGAIN. THIS RISE IN DWPTS WILL ALSO KEEP MINS UP A
BIT...MAINLY DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE COOLEST SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...AND A RESURGENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY WEATHER
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE...
ENABLING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO BRING INCREASING MOISTURE/HUMIDITY
TOWARDS OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST LATE IN THE DAY. WE COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT...WITH
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXTENDING EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THIS COLD FRONT PUSHES FARTHER INTO OUR AREA. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER INCREASING TO OVER 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION. EXPECTING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO CROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY...WITH A LOWER
RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY REACH THE SOUTH COAST BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER IT
STALLS NEAR OUR AREA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
POPS SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR
SOUTH OF OUR REGION A FRONT GETS PUSHED. THIS WILL AFFECT OUR
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. 28/00Z ECMWF REMAINS LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE 28/00Z GFS IN MOVING THIS FRONT FAR ENOUGH AWAY WHERE THERE
WOULD NOT BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ANYWHERE IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW EVOLUTION...WILL
KEEP AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE
GREATEST POPS TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST. DRIER WEATHER SHOULD BE MORE
PREVALENT TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LESS PROBABLE FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING...BRINGING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE...LOWER IN EXACT TIMING.
EXPECT GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN MA AT 18Z...REACHING CENTRAL MA/CT BY 20Z...THEN ERN MA
AND RI AROUND 22Z. COULD BE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL WITH SOME OF
THESE STORMS...AS WELL AS HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THESE WILL BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE MAINLY ACROSS SE MA TOWARD 00Z THIS EVENING. BRIEF
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE STORMS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS WILL SHIFT MAINLY W-NW...WITH MAINLY VFR AFTER SKIES/SHRA
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. MAY BE SOME LOCALIZED GROUND FOG AT
TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. EXPECT SEA BREEZES WITH WINDS SHIFTING MAINLY TO THE E
LATE IN THE DAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. ONLY ISSUE IS EXACT TIMING
OF POTENTIAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. EXACT TIMING OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR SO.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS...
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT NIGHT...
WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLD/SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

MONDAY...CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT MVFR WITH SCT SHOWERS SOUTH
COASTAL MA/RI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY INTO FRIDAY/...

THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WILL MAINTAIN ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AS THEY STAND. SEAS
ARE NEARING 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND WIND GUSTS NEAR SHORE ARE
25-30 KT. CURRENT TIMING IS THROUGH ABOUT 10PM LOCAL...WHICH IS
PRETTY CLOSE TO WHEN CONDITIONS SHOULD COME TO AN END. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR FOR SOME LEFTOVER THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH MAINLY 22Z-02Z
ALONG THE E COAST OF MA...LOCALLY STRONGER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SOME STRATUS/FOG IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ON THE SRN
WATERS TOMORROW NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECTING GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILD AGAIN TO
AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY...A COLD FRONT MAY LINGER NEAR THE WATERS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME...WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND GUSTS TO 20 KT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 281734
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
134 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A WIDESPREAD/SOAKING RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED. ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS.
FOR THIS WEEKEND...A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL BRING ARE GREATER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY
LINGER NEAR OUR AREA INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
** A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS
  AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ***

130 PM UPDATE...

PER COLLABORATION WITH SPC...HAVE ISSUED SVR WATCH 233 FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION SAVE FOR SRN RI/SE MA. MUCH OF THE REGION HAS CLEARED
OF IT/S STRATUS AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS JUST NOW STARTING TO
KICK OFF FAIRLY ROBUST CONVECTION ALONG IT IN ERN NY. THIS WILL BE
MOVING INTO A CORRIDOR WITH ML CAPES AROUND 1000J/KG ALONG WITH
HAIL CAPE VALUES NEAR 300. INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS STILL SUGGEST
STRONG WIND THREAT THANKS TO ENHANCED 40+ KT 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES.
THEREFORE...HAVE UPPED WORDING WITH THE WATCH ISSUANCE...INCLUDING
T+ STRONG WINDS AND HAIL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TODAY...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TODAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS AS 850MB TEMPS WARM INTO 14-15C. THIS
WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE
SOUTH COAST. STABLE MARINE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH KEEPING
THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20-30 MPH AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY
PUSHING A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. 00Z
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH BY THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS WHICH WILL BE THE SOURCE OF LIFT FOR ANY CONVECTION.
APPEARS THAT THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE NORTH OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG AND
WITH 35 KTS OF SHEAR BELIEVE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REALLY DO NOT
STEEPEN TIL THE LATER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON...AND WITH DRY AIR
ALOFT PUSHING THROUGH...COULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE. ITS ALL ABOUT
PERFECT TIMING. THEREFORE BELIEVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS ACROSS
THE NW AND OVER THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY 20-23Z. NOT EXPECTING A
WIDESPREAD EVENT...BUT MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE.

MAIN THREAT WITHIN ANY STORM WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. BECAUSE TEMPS ALOFT ARE SO WARM BELIEVE THE THREAT FOR
HAIL IS LOW...BUT IF ANY STORMS SHOW ROTATION...SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT...BUT STALL JUST SOUTH OF
THE ISLANDS AS BERMUDA HIGH STILL DOMINATES THE WATERS. ALONG THIS
FRONT COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP.

OTHERWISE EXPECT A LITTLE RELIEF IN THE WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS AS
THE FRONT IS WEAK AND WASHES OUT. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S IN METRO BOS/PVD.

TOMORROW...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY YIELDING TO DRY
WEATHER FOR THE DAY. WITH MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ANTICIPATE DIURNAL CLOUDS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. OTHERWISE
WEAK WINDS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
COASTLINES. TEMPS WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS
REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH 70S ALONG BOTH COASTLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...AND A RESURGENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY WEATHER
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE...
ENABLING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO BRING INCREASING MOISTURE/HUMIDITY
TOWARDS OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST LATE IN THE DAY. WE COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT...WITH
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXTENDING EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THIS COLD FRONT PUSHES FARTHER INTO OUR AREA. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER INCREASING TO OVER 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION. EXPECTING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO CROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY...WITH A LOWER
RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY REACH THE SOUTH COAST BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER IT
STALLS NEAR OUR AREA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
POPS SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR
SOUTH OF OUR REGION A FRONT GETS PUSHED. THIS WILL AFFECT OUR
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. 28/00Z ECMWF REMAINS LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE 28/00Z GFS IN MOVING THIS FRONT FAR ENOUGH AWAY WHERE THERE
WOULD NOT BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ANYWHERE IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW EVOLUTION...WILL
KEEP AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE
GREATEST POPS TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST. DRIER WEATHER SHOULD BE MORE
PREVALENT TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LESS PROBABLE FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING...BRINGING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE...LOWER IN EXACT TIMING.
EXPECT GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN MA AT 18Z...REACHING CENTRAL MA/CT BY 20Z...THEN ERN MA
AND RI AROUND 22Z. COULD BE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL WITH SOME OF
THESE STORMS...AS WELL AS HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THESE WILL BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE MAINLY ACROSS SE MA TOWARD 00Z THIS EVENING. BRIEF
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE STORMS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS WILL SHIFT MAINLY W-NW...WITH MAINLY VFR AFTER SKIES/SHRA
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. MAY BE SOME LOCALIZED GROUND FOG AT
TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. EXPECT SEA BREEZES WITH WINDS SHIFTING MAINLY TO THE E
LATE IN THE DAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. ONLY ISSUE IS EXACT TIMING
OF POTENTIAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. EXACT TIMING OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR SO.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS...
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT NIGHT...
WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLD/SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

MONDAY...CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT MVFR WITH SCT SHOWERS SOUTH
COASTAL MA/RI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY INTO FRIDAY/...

TODAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANOTHER ROUND OF NEAR SHORE
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION...A
FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND WASH OUT. THIS COULD YIELD TO FOG AND
STRATUS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WATERS
KEEPING SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECTING GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILD AGAIN TO
AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY...A COLD FRONT MAY LINGER NEAR THE WATERS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME...WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND GUSTS TO 20 KT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DOODY/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 281734
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
134 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A WIDESPREAD/SOAKING RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED. ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS.
FOR THIS WEEKEND...A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL BRING ARE GREATER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY
LINGER NEAR OUR AREA INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
** A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS
  AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ***

130 PM UPDATE...

PER COLLABORATION WITH SPC...HAVE ISSUED SVR WATCH 233 FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION SAVE FOR SRN RI/SE MA. MUCH OF THE REGION HAS CLEARED
OF IT/S STRATUS AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS JUST NOW STARTING TO
KICK OFF FAIRLY ROBUST CONVECTION ALONG IT IN ERN NY. THIS WILL BE
MOVING INTO A CORRIDOR WITH ML CAPES AROUND 1000J/KG ALONG WITH
HAIL CAPE VALUES NEAR 300. INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS STILL SUGGEST
STRONG WIND THREAT THANKS TO ENHANCED 40+ KT 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES.
THEREFORE...HAVE UPPED WORDING WITH THE WATCH ISSUANCE...INCLUDING
T+ STRONG WINDS AND HAIL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TODAY...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TODAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS AS 850MB TEMPS WARM INTO 14-15C. THIS
WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE
SOUTH COAST. STABLE MARINE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH KEEPING
THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20-30 MPH AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY
PUSHING A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. 00Z
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH BY THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS WHICH WILL BE THE SOURCE OF LIFT FOR ANY CONVECTION.
APPEARS THAT THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE NORTH OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG AND
WITH 35 KTS OF SHEAR BELIEVE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REALLY DO NOT
STEEPEN TIL THE LATER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON...AND WITH DRY AIR
ALOFT PUSHING THROUGH...COULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE. ITS ALL ABOUT
PERFECT TIMING. THEREFORE BELIEVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS ACROSS
THE NW AND OVER THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY 20-23Z. NOT EXPECTING A
WIDESPREAD EVENT...BUT MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE.

MAIN THREAT WITHIN ANY STORM WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. BECAUSE TEMPS ALOFT ARE SO WARM BELIEVE THE THREAT FOR
HAIL IS LOW...BUT IF ANY STORMS SHOW ROTATION...SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT...BUT STALL JUST SOUTH OF
THE ISLANDS AS BERMUDA HIGH STILL DOMINATES THE WATERS. ALONG THIS
FRONT COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP.

OTHERWISE EXPECT A LITTLE RELIEF IN THE WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS AS
THE FRONT IS WEAK AND WASHES OUT. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S IN METRO BOS/PVD.

TOMORROW...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY YIELDING TO DRY
WEATHER FOR THE DAY. WITH MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ANTICIPATE DIURNAL CLOUDS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. OTHERWISE
WEAK WINDS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
COASTLINES. TEMPS WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS
REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH 70S ALONG BOTH COASTLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...AND A RESURGENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY WEATHER
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE...
ENABLING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO BRING INCREASING MOISTURE/HUMIDITY
TOWARDS OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST LATE IN THE DAY. WE COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT...WITH
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXTENDING EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THIS COLD FRONT PUSHES FARTHER INTO OUR AREA. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER INCREASING TO OVER 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION. EXPECTING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO CROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY...WITH A LOWER
RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY REACH THE SOUTH COAST BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER IT
STALLS NEAR OUR AREA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
POPS SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR
SOUTH OF OUR REGION A FRONT GETS PUSHED. THIS WILL AFFECT OUR
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. 28/00Z ECMWF REMAINS LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE 28/00Z GFS IN MOVING THIS FRONT FAR ENOUGH AWAY WHERE THERE
WOULD NOT BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ANYWHERE IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW EVOLUTION...WILL
KEEP AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE
GREATEST POPS TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST. DRIER WEATHER SHOULD BE MORE
PREVALENT TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LESS PROBABLE FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING...BRINGING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE...LOWER IN EXACT TIMING.
EXPECT GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN MA AT 18Z...REACHING CENTRAL MA/CT BY 20Z...THEN ERN MA
AND RI AROUND 22Z. COULD BE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL WITH SOME OF
THESE STORMS...AS WELL AS HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THESE WILL BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE MAINLY ACROSS SE MA TOWARD 00Z THIS EVENING. BRIEF
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE STORMS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS WILL SHIFT MAINLY W-NW...WITH MAINLY VFR AFTER SKIES/SHRA
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. MAY BE SOME LOCALIZED GROUND FOG AT
TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. EXPECT SEA BREEZES WITH WINDS SHIFTING MAINLY TO THE E
LATE IN THE DAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. ONLY ISSUE IS EXACT TIMING
OF POTENTIAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. EXACT TIMING OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR SO.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS...
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT NIGHT...
WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLD/SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

MONDAY...CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT MVFR WITH SCT SHOWERS SOUTH
COASTAL MA/RI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY INTO FRIDAY/...

TODAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANOTHER ROUND OF NEAR SHORE
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION...A
FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND WASH OUT. THIS COULD YIELD TO FOG AND
STRATUS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WATERS
KEEPING SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECTING GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILD AGAIN TO
AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY...A COLD FRONT MAY LINGER NEAR THE WATERS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME...WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND GUSTS TO 20 KT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DOODY/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 281734
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
134 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A WIDESPREAD/SOAKING RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED. ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS.
FOR THIS WEEKEND...A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL BRING ARE GREATER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY
LINGER NEAR OUR AREA INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
** A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS
  AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ***

130 PM UPDATE...

PER COLLABORATION WITH SPC...HAVE ISSUED SVR WATCH 233 FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION SAVE FOR SRN RI/SE MA. MUCH OF THE REGION HAS CLEARED
OF IT/S STRATUS AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS JUST NOW STARTING TO
KICK OFF FAIRLY ROBUST CONVECTION ALONG IT IN ERN NY. THIS WILL BE
MOVING INTO A CORRIDOR WITH ML CAPES AROUND 1000J/KG ALONG WITH
HAIL CAPE VALUES NEAR 300. INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS STILL SUGGEST
STRONG WIND THREAT THANKS TO ENHANCED 40+ KT 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES.
THEREFORE...HAVE UPPED WORDING WITH THE WATCH ISSUANCE...INCLUDING
T+ STRONG WINDS AND HAIL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TODAY...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TODAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS AS 850MB TEMPS WARM INTO 14-15C. THIS
WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE
SOUTH COAST. STABLE MARINE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH KEEPING
THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20-30 MPH AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY
PUSHING A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. 00Z
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH BY THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS WHICH WILL BE THE SOURCE OF LIFT FOR ANY CONVECTION.
APPEARS THAT THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE NORTH OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG AND
WITH 35 KTS OF SHEAR BELIEVE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REALLY DO NOT
STEEPEN TIL THE LATER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON...AND WITH DRY AIR
ALOFT PUSHING THROUGH...COULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE. ITS ALL ABOUT
PERFECT TIMING. THEREFORE BELIEVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS ACROSS
THE NW AND OVER THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY 20-23Z. NOT EXPECTING A
WIDESPREAD EVENT...BUT MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE.

MAIN THREAT WITHIN ANY STORM WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. BECAUSE TEMPS ALOFT ARE SO WARM BELIEVE THE THREAT FOR
HAIL IS LOW...BUT IF ANY STORMS SHOW ROTATION...SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT...BUT STALL JUST SOUTH OF
THE ISLANDS AS BERMUDA HIGH STILL DOMINATES THE WATERS. ALONG THIS
FRONT COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP.

OTHERWISE EXPECT A LITTLE RELIEF IN THE WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS AS
THE FRONT IS WEAK AND WASHES OUT. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S IN METRO BOS/PVD.

TOMORROW...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY YIELDING TO DRY
WEATHER FOR THE DAY. WITH MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ANTICIPATE DIURNAL CLOUDS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. OTHERWISE
WEAK WINDS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
COASTLINES. TEMPS WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS
REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH 70S ALONG BOTH COASTLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...AND A RESURGENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY WEATHER
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE...
ENABLING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO BRING INCREASING MOISTURE/HUMIDITY
TOWARDS OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST LATE IN THE DAY. WE COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT...WITH
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXTENDING EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THIS COLD FRONT PUSHES FARTHER INTO OUR AREA. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER INCREASING TO OVER 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION. EXPECTING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO CROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY...WITH A LOWER
RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY REACH THE SOUTH COAST BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER IT
STALLS NEAR OUR AREA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
POPS SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR
SOUTH OF OUR REGION A FRONT GETS PUSHED. THIS WILL AFFECT OUR
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. 28/00Z ECMWF REMAINS LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE 28/00Z GFS IN MOVING THIS FRONT FAR ENOUGH AWAY WHERE THERE
WOULD NOT BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ANYWHERE IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW EVOLUTION...WILL
KEEP AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE
GREATEST POPS TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST. DRIER WEATHER SHOULD BE MORE
PREVALENT TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LESS PROBABLE FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING...BRINGING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE...LOWER IN EXACT TIMING.
EXPECT GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN MA AT 18Z...REACHING CENTRAL MA/CT BY 20Z...THEN ERN MA
AND RI AROUND 22Z. COULD BE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL WITH SOME OF
THESE STORMS...AS WELL AS HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THESE WILL BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE MAINLY ACROSS SE MA TOWARD 00Z THIS EVENING. BRIEF
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE STORMS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS WILL SHIFT MAINLY W-NW...WITH MAINLY VFR AFTER SKIES/SHRA
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. MAY BE SOME LOCALIZED GROUND FOG AT
TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. EXPECT SEA BREEZES WITH WINDS SHIFTING MAINLY TO THE E
LATE IN THE DAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. ONLY ISSUE IS EXACT TIMING
OF POTENTIAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. EXACT TIMING OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR SO.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS...
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT NIGHT...
WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLD/SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

MONDAY...CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT MVFR WITH SCT SHOWERS SOUTH
COASTAL MA/RI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY INTO FRIDAY/...

TODAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANOTHER ROUND OF NEAR SHORE
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION...A
FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND WASH OUT. THIS COULD YIELD TO FOG AND
STRATUS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WATERS
KEEPING SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECTING GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILD AGAIN TO
AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY...A COLD FRONT MAY LINGER NEAR THE WATERS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME...WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND GUSTS TO 20 KT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DOODY/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 281734
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
134 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A WIDESPREAD/SOAKING RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED. ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS.
FOR THIS WEEKEND...A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL BRING ARE GREATER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY
LINGER NEAR OUR AREA INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
** A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS
  AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ***

130 PM UPDATE...

PER COLLABORATION WITH SPC...HAVE ISSUED SVR WATCH 233 FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION SAVE FOR SRN RI/SE MA. MUCH OF THE REGION HAS CLEARED
OF IT/S STRATUS AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS JUST NOW STARTING TO
KICK OFF FAIRLY ROBUST CONVECTION ALONG IT IN ERN NY. THIS WILL BE
MOVING INTO A CORRIDOR WITH ML CAPES AROUND 1000J/KG ALONG WITH
HAIL CAPE VALUES NEAR 300. INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS STILL SUGGEST
STRONG WIND THREAT THANKS TO ENHANCED 40+ KT 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES.
THEREFORE...HAVE UPPED WORDING WITH THE WATCH ISSUANCE...INCLUDING
T+ STRONG WINDS AND HAIL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TODAY...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TODAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS AS 850MB TEMPS WARM INTO 14-15C. THIS
WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE
SOUTH COAST. STABLE MARINE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH KEEPING
THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20-30 MPH AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY
PUSHING A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. 00Z
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH BY THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS WHICH WILL BE THE SOURCE OF LIFT FOR ANY CONVECTION.
APPEARS THAT THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE NORTH OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG AND
WITH 35 KTS OF SHEAR BELIEVE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REALLY DO NOT
STEEPEN TIL THE LATER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON...AND WITH DRY AIR
ALOFT PUSHING THROUGH...COULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE. ITS ALL ABOUT
PERFECT TIMING. THEREFORE BELIEVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS ACROSS
THE NW AND OVER THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY 20-23Z. NOT EXPECTING A
WIDESPREAD EVENT...BUT MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE.

MAIN THREAT WITHIN ANY STORM WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. BECAUSE TEMPS ALOFT ARE SO WARM BELIEVE THE THREAT FOR
HAIL IS LOW...BUT IF ANY STORMS SHOW ROTATION...SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT...BUT STALL JUST SOUTH OF
THE ISLANDS AS BERMUDA HIGH STILL DOMINATES THE WATERS. ALONG THIS
FRONT COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP.

OTHERWISE EXPECT A LITTLE RELIEF IN THE WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS AS
THE FRONT IS WEAK AND WASHES OUT. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S IN METRO BOS/PVD.

TOMORROW...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY YIELDING TO DRY
WEATHER FOR THE DAY. WITH MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ANTICIPATE DIURNAL CLOUDS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. OTHERWISE
WEAK WINDS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
COASTLINES. TEMPS WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS
REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH 70S ALONG BOTH COASTLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...AND A RESURGENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY WEATHER
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE...
ENABLING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO BRING INCREASING MOISTURE/HUMIDITY
TOWARDS OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST LATE IN THE DAY. WE COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT...WITH
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXTENDING EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THIS COLD FRONT PUSHES FARTHER INTO OUR AREA. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER INCREASING TO OVER 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION. EXPECTING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO CROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY...WITH A LOWER
RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY REACH THE SOUTH COAST BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER IT
STALLS NEAR OUR AREA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
POPS SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR
SOUTH OF OUR REGION A FRONT GETS PUSHED. THIS WILL AFFECT OUR
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. 28/00Z ECMWF REMAINS LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE 28/00Z GFS IN MOVING THIS FRONT FAR ENOUGH AWAY WHERE THERE
WOULD NOT BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ANYWHERE IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW EVOLUTION...WILL
KEEP AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE
GREATEST POPS TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST. DRIER WEATHER SHOULD BE MORE
PREVALENT TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LESS PROBABLE FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING...BRINGING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE...LOWER IN EXACT TIMING.
EXPECT GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN MA AT 18Z...REACHING CENTRAL MA/CT BY 20Z...THEN ERN MA
AND RI AROUND 22Z. COULD BE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL WITH SOME OF
THESE STORMS...AS WELL AS HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THESE WILL BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE MAINLY ACROSS SE MA TOWARD 00Z THIS EVENING. BRIEF
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE STORMS.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS WILL SHIFT MAINLY W-NW...WITH MAINLY VFR AFTER SKIES/SHRA
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. MAY BE SOME LOCALIZED GROUND FOG AT
TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. EXPECT SEA BREEZES WITH WINDS SHIFTING MAINLY TO THE E
LATE IN THE DAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. ONLY ISSUE IS EXACT TIMING
OF POTENTIAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. EXACT TIMING OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR SO.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS...
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT NIGHT...
WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLD/SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

MONDAY...CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT MVFR WITH SCT SHOWERS SOUTH
COASTAL MA/RI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY INTO FRIDAY/...

TODAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANOTHER ROUND OF NEAR SHORE
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION...A
FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND WASH OUT. THIS COULD YIELD TO FOG AND
STRATUS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WATERS
KEEPING SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECTING GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILD AGAIN TO
AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY...A COLD FRONT MAY LINGER NEAR THE WATERS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME...WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND GUSTS TO 20 KT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>235-237-250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DOODY/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 281401
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1001 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A WIDESPREAD/SOAKING RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED. ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS.
FOR THIS WEEKEND...A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL BRING ARE GREATER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY
LINGER NEAR OUR AREA INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
** A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS
  AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ***

10 AM UPDATE...
NOSE OF MODERATE LLJ MOVING NNE FROM S OF LONG ISLAND THIS MORNING
HAS BEEN ACTING AS A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION S OF BLOCK ISLAND AND
APPROACHING THE VINEYARD. THIS SUGGESTS MID LVL INSTABILITY
ALREADY AVAILABLE ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER. NOW WE ARE JUST WAITING
ON THE SFC TO CATCH UP. STRATUS IS DISSIPATING RATHER
RAPIDLY...AND SFC DWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY IN THE MID 60S.
THEREFORE...WILL SEE INCREASING SFC CAPE THROUGH ABOUT EARLY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT TO SEE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH TIMING SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECASTER. TIMING OF THE UPPER
LVL WAVE AND COLD FRONT SUGGEST ARRIVAL BY ABOUT THE SAME TIME
HEATING BEGINS TO PEAK. HAIL/WIND PARAMETERS THE SAME ALTHOUGH
WITH INCREASING LOW LVL SFC DWPT DEPRESSION...INVERTED-V
SOUNDINGS APPARENT. THEREFORE...STILL FEEL WINDS ARE HIGHEST
THREAT ALTHOUGH SOME 200-300 J/KG ARE FORECAST BY THIS MORNING/S
MESO-SCALE RUNS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TODAY...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TODAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS AS 850MB TEMPS WARM INTO 14-15C. THIS
WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE
SOUTH COAST. STABLE MARINE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH KEEPING
THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20-30 MPH AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY
PUSHING A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. 00Z
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH BY THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS WHICH WILL BE THE SOURCE OF LIFT FOR ANY CONVECTION.
APPEARS THAT THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE NORTH OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG AND
WITH 35 KTS OF SHEAR BELIEVE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REALLY DO NOT
STEEPEN TIL THE LATER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON...AND WITH DRY AIR
ALOFT PUSHING THROUGH...COULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE. ITS ALL ABOUT
PERFECT TIMING. THEREFORE BELIEVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS ACROSS
THE NW AND OVER THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY 20-23Z. NOT EXPECTING A
WIDESPREAD EVENT...BUT MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE.

MAIN THREAT WITHIN ANY STORM WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. BECAUSE TEMPS ALOFT ARE SO WARM BELIEVE THE THREAT FOR
HAIL IS LOW...BUT IF ANY STORMS SHOW ROTATION...SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT...BUT STALL JUST SOUTH OF
THE ISLANDS AS BERMUDA HIGH STILL DOMINATES THE WATERS. ALONG THIS
FRONT COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP.

OTHERWISE EXPECT A LITTLE RELIEF IN THE WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS AS
THE FRONT IS WEAK AND WASHES OUT. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S IN METRO BOS/PVD.

TOMORROW...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY YIELDING TO DRY
WEATHER FOR THE DAY. WITH MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ANTICIPATE DIURNAL CLOUDS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. OTHERWISE
WEAK WINDS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
COASTLINES. TEMPS WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS
REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH 70S ALONG BOTH COASTLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...AND A RESURGENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY WEATHER
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE...
ENABLING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO BRING INCREASING MOISTURE/HUMIDITY
TOWARDS OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST LATE IN THE DAY. WE COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT...WITH
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXTENDING EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THIS COLD FRONT PUSHES FARTHER INTO OUR AREA. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER INCREASING TO OVER 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION. EXPECTING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO CROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY...WITH A LOWER
RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY REACH THE SOUTH COAST BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER IT
STALLS NEAR OUR AREA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
POPS SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR
SOUTH OF OUR REGION A FRONT GETS PUSHED. THIS WILL AFFECT OUR
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. 28/00Z ECMWF REMAINS LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE 28/00Z GFS IN MOVING THIS FRONT FAR ENOUGH AWAY WHERE THERE
WOULD NOT BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ANYWHERE IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW EVOLUTION...WILL
KEEP AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE
GREATEST POPS TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST. DRIER WEATHER SHOULD BE MORE
PREVALENT TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LESS PROBABLE FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING...BRINGING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANY LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING...AT THE LATEST. OTHERWISE...VFR BUT A
COLD FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS. SOUTHWEST
WINDS COULD GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NW TONIGHT. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO START...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VSBYS DUE TO
RADIATION FOG. OTHERWISE VFR FOR TOMORROW WITH SEA BREEZES ALONG
THE MASS COASTLINE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING. STRATUS COULD LINGER LONGER THAN CURRENT EXPECTATIONS
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE COULD SEE BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN
ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS...
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT NIGHT...
WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLD/SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

MONDAY...CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT MVFR WITH SCT SHOWERS SOUTH
COASTAL MA/RI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY INTO FRIDAY/...

TODAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANOTHER ROUND OF NEAR SHORE
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION...A
FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND WASH OUT. THIS COULD YIELD TO FOG AND
STRATUS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WATERS
KEEPING SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECTING GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILD AGAIN TO
AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY...A COLD FRONT MAY LINGER NEAR THE WATERS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME...WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND GUSTS TO 20 KT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DOODY/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 281401
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1001 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A WIDESPREAD/SOAKING RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED. ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS.
FOR THIS WEEKEND...A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL BRING ARE GREATER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY
LINGER NEAR OUR AREA INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
** A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS
  AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ***

10 AM UPDATE...
NOSE OF MODERATE LLJ MOVING NNE FROM S OF LONG ISLAND THIS MORNING
HAS BEEN ACTING AS A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION S OF BLOCK ISLAND AND
APPROACHING THE VINEYARD. THIS SUGGESTS MID LVL INSTABILITY
ALREADY AVAILABLE ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER. NOW WE ARE JUST WAITING
ON THE SFC TO CATCH UP. STRATUS IS DISSIPATING RATHER
RAPIDLY...AND SFC DWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY IN THE MID 60S.
THEREFORE...WILL SEE INCREASING SFC CAPE THROUGH ABOUT EARLY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT TO SEE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH TIMING SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECASTER. TIMING OF THE UPPER
LVL WAVE AND COLD FRONT SUGGEST ARRIVAL BY ABOUT THE SAME TIME
HEATING BEGINS TO PEAK. HAIL/WIND PARAMETERS THE SAME ALTHOUGH
WITH INCREASING LOW LVL SFC DWPT DEPRESSION...INVERTED-V
SOUNDINGS APPARENT. THEREFORE...STILL FEEL WINDS ARE HIGHEST
THREAT ALTHOUGH SOME 200-300 J/KG ARE FORECAST BY THIS MORNING/S
MESO-SCALE RUNS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TODAY...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TODAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS AS 850MB TEMPS WARM INTO 14-15C. THIS
WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE
SOUTH COAST. STABLE MARINE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH KEEPING
THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20-30 MPH AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY
PUSHING A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. 00Z
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH BY THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS WHICH WILL BE THE SOURCE OF LIFT FOR ANY CONVECTION.
APPEARS THAT THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE NORTH OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG AND
WITH 35 KTS OF SHEAR BELIEVE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REALLY DO NOT
STEEPEN TIL THE LATER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON...AND WITH DRY AIR
ALOFT PUSHING THROUGH...COULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE. ITS ALL ABOUT
PERFECT TIMING. THEREFORE BELIEVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS ACROSS
THE NW AND OVER THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY 20-23Z. NOT EXPECTING A
WIDESPREAD EVENT...BUT MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE.

MAIN THREAT WITHIN ANY STORM WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. BECAUSE TEMPS ALOFT ARE SO WARM BELIEVE THE THREAT FOR
HAIL IS LOW...BUT IF ANY STORMS SHOW ROTATION...SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT...BUT STALL JUST SOUTH OF
THE ISLANDS AS BERMUDA HIGH STILL DOMINATES THE WATERS. ALONG THIS
FRONT COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP.

OTHERWISE EXPECT A LITTLE RELIEF IN THE WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS AS
THE FRONT IS WEAK AND WASHES OUT. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S IN METRO BOS/PVD.

TOMORROW...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY YIELDING TO DRY
WEATHER FOR THE DAY. WITH MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ANTICIPATE DIURNAL CLOUDS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. OTHERWISE
WEAK WINDS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
COASTLINES. TEMPS WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS
REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH 70S ALONG BOTH COASTLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...AND A RESURGENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY WEATHER
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE...
ENABLING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO BRING INCREASING MOISTURE/HUMIDITY
TOWARDS OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST LATE IN THE DAY. WE COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT...WITH
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXTENDING EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THIS COLD FRONT PUSHES FARTHER INTO OUR AREA. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER INCREASING TO OVER 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION. EXPECTING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO CROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY...WITH A LOWER
RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY REACH THE SOUTH COAST BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER IT
STALLS NEAR OUR AREA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
POPS SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR
SOUTH OF OUR REGION A FRONT GETS PUSHED. THIS WILL AFFECT OUR
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. 28/00Z ECMWF REMAINS LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE 28/00Z GFS IN MOVING THIS FRONT FAR ENOUGH AWAY WHERE THERE
WOULD NOT BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ANYWHERE IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW EVOLUTION...WILL
KEEP AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE
GREATEST POPS TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST. DRIER WEATHER SHOULD BE MORE
PREVALENT TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LESS PROBABLE FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING...BRINGING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANY LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING...AT THE LATEST. OTHERWISE...VFR BUT A
COLD FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS. SOUTHWEST
WINDS COULD GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NW TONIGHT. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO START...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VSBYS DUE TO
RADIATION FOG. OTHERWISE VFR FOR TOMORROW WITH SEA BREEZES ALONG
THE MASS COASTLINE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING. STRATUS COULD LINGER LONGER THAN CURRENT EXPECTATIONS
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE COULD SEE BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN
ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS...
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT NIGHT...
WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLD/SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

MONDAY...CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT MVFR WITH SCT SHOWERS SOUTH
COASTAL MA/RI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY INTO FRIDAY/...

TODAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANOTHER ROUND OF NEAR SHORE
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION...A
FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND WASH OUT. THIS COULD YIELD TO FOG AND
STRATUS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WATERS
KEEPING SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECTING GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILD AGAIN TO
AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY...A COLD FRONT MAY LINGER NEAR THE WATERS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME...WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND GUSTS TO 20 KT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DOODY/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 281136
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
736 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A WIDESPREAD/SOAKING RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED. ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS.
FOR THIS WEEKEND...A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL BRING ARE GREATER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY
LINGER NEAR OUR AREA INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

** A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS
  AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ***

736 AM UPDATE...

SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE WARM...MOIST AIRMASS EARLY THIS
MORNING. STRATUS WAS ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALREADY
SEEING TRENDS IN THE SATELLITE AND CLOUD HEIGHT DATA WHICH
SUGGESTS A RELATIVELY QUICK DISSIPATION OF THE STRATUS...
ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST. TWEAKED NEAR-TERM FORECAST
TO BRING IT BACK IN LINE WITH OBSERVED TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TODAY...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TODAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS AS 850MB TEMPS WARM INTO 14-15C. THIS
WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE
SOUTH COAST. STABLE MARINE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH KEEPING
THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20-30 MPH AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY
PUSHING A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. 00Z
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH BY THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS WHICH WILL BE THE SOURCE OF LIFT FOR ANY CONVECTION.
APPEARS THAT THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE NORTH OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG AND
WITH 35 KTS OF SHEAR BELIEVE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REALLY DO NOT
STEEPEN TIL THE LATER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON...AND WITH DRY AIR
ALOFT PUSHING THROUGH...COULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE. ITS ALL ABOUT
PERFECT TIMING. THEREFORE BELIEVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS ACROSS
THE NW AND OVER THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY 20-23Z. NOT EXPECTING A
WIDESPREAD EVENT...BUT MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE.

MAIN THREAT WITHIN ANY STORM WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. BECAUSE TEMPS ALOFT ARE SO WARM BELIEVE THE THREAT FOR
HAIL IS LOW...BUT IF ANY STORMS SHOW ROTATION...SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT...BUT STALL JUST SOUTH OF
THE ISLANDS AS BERMUDA HIGH STILL DOMINATES THE WATERS. ALONG THIS
FRONT COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP.

OTHERWISE EXPECT A LITTLE RELIEF IN THE WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS AS
THE FRONT IS WEAK AND WASHES OUT. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S IN METRO BOS/PVD.

TOMORROW...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY YIELDING TO DRY
WEATHER FOR THE DAY. WITH MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ANTICIPATE DIURNAL CLOUDS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. OTHERWISE
WEAK WINDS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
COASTLINES. TEMPS WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS
REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH 70S ALONG BOTH COASTLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...AND A RESURGENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY WEATHER
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE...
ENABLING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO BRING INCREASING MOISTURE/HUMIDITY
TOWARDS OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST LATE IN THE DAY. WE COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT...WITH
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXTENDING EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THIS COLD FRONT PUSHES FARTHER INTO OUR AREA. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER INCREASING TO OVER 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION. EXPECTING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO CROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY...WITH A LOWER
RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY REACH THE SOUTH COAST BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER IT
STALLS NEAR OUR AREA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
POPS SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR
SOUTH OF OUR REGION A FRONT GETS PUSHED. THIS WILL AFFECT OUR
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. 28/00Z ECMWF REMAINS LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE 28/00Z GFS IN MOVING THIS FRONT FAR ENOUGH AWAY WHERE THERE
WOULD NOT BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ANYWHERE IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW EVOLUTION...WILL
KEEP AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE
GREATEST POPS TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST. DRIER WEATHER SHOULD BE MORE
PREVALENT TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LESS PROBABLE FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING...BRINGING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANY LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING...AT THE LATEST. OTHERWISE...VFR BUT A
COLD FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS. SOUTHWEST
WINDS COULD GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NW TONIGHT. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO START...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VSBYS DUE TO
RADIATION FOG. OTHERWISE VFR FOR TOMORROW WITH SEA BREEZES ALONG
THE MASS COASTLINE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING. STRATUS COULD LINGER LONGER THAN CURRENT EXPECTATIONS
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE COULD SEE BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN
ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS...
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT NIGHT...
WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLD/SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

MONDAY...CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT MVFR WITH SCT SHOWERS SOUTH
COASTAL MA/RI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY INTO FRIDAY/...

TODAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANOTHER ROUND OF NEAR SHORE
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION...A
FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND WASH OUT. THIS COULD YIELD TO FOG AND
STRATUS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WATERS
KEEPING SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECTING GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILD AGAIN TO
AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY...A COLD FRONT MAY LINGER NEAR THE WATERS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME...WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND GUSTS TO 20 KT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 281136
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
736 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A WIDESPREAD/SOAKING RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED. ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS.
FOR THIS WEEKEND...A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL BRING ARE GREATER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY
LINGER NEAR OUR AREA INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

** A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS
  AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ***

736 AM UPDATE...

SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE WARM...MOIST AIRMASS EARLY THIS
MORNING. STRATUS WAS ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALREADY
SEEING TRENDS IN THE SATELLITE AND CLOUD HEIGHT DATA WHICH
SUGGESTS A RELATIVELY QUICK DISSIPATION OF THE STRATUS...
ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST. TWEAKED NEAR-TERM FORECAST
TO BRING IT BACK IN LINE WITH OBSERVED TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TODAY...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TODAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS AS 850MB TEMPS WARM INTO 14-15C. THIS
WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE
SOUTH COAST. STABLE MARINE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH KEEPING
THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20-30 MPH AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY
PUSHING A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. 00Z
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH BY THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS WHICH WILL BE THE SOURCE OF LIFT FOR ANY CONVECTION.
APPEARS THAT THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE NORTH OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG AND
WITH 35 KTS OF SHEAR BELIEVE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REALLY DO NOT
STEEPEN TIL THE LATER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON...AND WITH DRY AIR
ALOFT PUSHING THROUGH...COULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE. ITS ALL ABOUT
PERFECT TIMING. THEREFORE BELIEVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS ACROSS
THE NW AND OVER THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY 20-23Z. NOT EXPECTING A
WIDESPREAD EVENT...BUT MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE.

MAIN THREAT WITHIN ANY STORM WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. BECAUSE TEMPS ALOFT ARE SO WARM BELIEVE THE THREAT FOR
HAIL IS LOW...BUT IF ANY STORMS SHOW ROTATION...SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT...BUT STALL JUST SOUTH OF
THE ISLANDS AS BERMUDA HIGH STILL DOMINATES THE WATERS. ALONG THIS
FRONT COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP.

OTHERWISE EXPECT A LITTLE RELIEF IN THE WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS AS
THE FRONT IS WEAK AND WASHES OUT. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S IN METRO BOS/PVD.

TOMORROW...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY YIELDING TO DRY
WEATHER FOR THE DAY. WITH MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ANTICIPATE DIURNAL CLOUDS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. OTHERWISE
WEAK WINDS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
COASTLINES. TEMPS WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS
REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH 70S ALONG BOTH COASTLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...AND A RESURGENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY WEATHER
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE...
ENABLING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO BRING INCREASING MOISTURE/HUMIDITY
TOWARDS OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST LATE IN THE DAY. WE COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT...WITH
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXTENDING EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THIS COLD FRONT PUSHES FARTHER INTO OUR AREA. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER INCREASING TO OVER 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION. EXPECTING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO CROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY...WITH A LOWER
RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY REACH THE SOUTH COAST BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER IT
STALLS NEAR OUR AREA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
POPS SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR
SOUTH OF OUR REGION A FRONT GETS PUSHED. THIS WILL AFFECT OUR
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. 28/00Z ECMWF REMAINS LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE 28/00Z GFS IN MOVING THIS FRONT FAR ENOUGH AWAY WHERE THERE
WOULD NOT BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ANYWHERE IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW EVOLUTION...WILL
KEEP AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE
GREATEST POPS TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST. DRIER WEATHER SHOULD BE MORE
PREVALENT TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LESS PROBABLE FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING...BRINGING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANY LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING...AT THE LATEST. OTHERWISE...VFR BUT A
COLD FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS. SOUTHWEST
WINDS COULD GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NW TONIGHT. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO START...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VSBYS DUE TO
RADIATION FOG. OTHERWISE VFR FOR TOMORROW WITH SEA BREEZES ALONG
THE MASS COASTLINE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING. STRATUS COULD LINGER LONGER THAN CURRENT EXPECTATIONS
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE COULD SEE BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN
ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS...
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT NIGHT...
WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLD/SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

MONDAY...CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT MVFR WITH SCT SHOWERS SOUTH
COASTAL MA/RI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY INTO FRIDAY/...

TODAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANOTHER ROUND OF NEAR SHORE
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION...A
FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND WASH OUT. THIS COULD YIELD TO FOG AND
STRATUS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WATERS
KEEPING SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECTING GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILD AGAIN TO
AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY...A COLD FRONT MAY LINGER NEAR THE WATERS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME...WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND GUSTS TO 20 KT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 281136
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
736 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A WIDESPREAD/SOAKING RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED. ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS.
FOR THIS WEEKEND...A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL BRING ARE GREATER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY
LINGER NEAR OUR AREA INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

** A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS
  AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ***

736 AM UPDATE...

SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE WARM...MOIST AIRMASS EARLY THIS
MORNING. STRATUS WAS ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALREADY
SEEING TRENDS IN THE SATELLITE AND CLOUD HEIGHT DATA WHICH
SUGGESTS A RELATIVELY QUICK DISSIPATION OF THE STRATUS...
ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST. TWEAKED NEAR-TERM FORECAST
TO BRING IT BACK IN LINE WITH OBSERVED TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TODAY...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TODAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS AS 850MB TEMPS WARM INTO 14-15C. THIS
WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE
SOUTH COAST. STABLE MARINE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH KEEPING
THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20-30 MPH AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY
PUSHING A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. 00Z
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH BY THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS WHICH WILL BE THE SOURCE OF LIFT FOR ANY CONVECTION.
APPEARS THAT THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE NORTH OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG AND
WITH 35 KTS OF SHEAR BELIEVE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REALLY DO NOT
STEEPEN TIL THE LATER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON...AND WITH DRY AIR
ALOFT PUSHING THROUGH...COULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE. ITS ALL ABOUT
PERFECT TIMING. THEREFORE BELIEVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS ACROSS
THE NW AND OVER THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY 20-23Z. NOT EXPECTING A
WIDESPREAD EVENT...BUT MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE.

MAIN THREAT WITHIN ANY STORM WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. BECAUSE TEMPS ALOFT ARE SO WARM BELIEVE THE THREAT FOR
HAIL IS LOW...BUT IF ANY STORMS SHOW ROTATION...SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT...BUT STALL JUST SOUTH OF
THE ISLANDS AS BERMUDA HIGH STILL DOMINATES THE WATERS. ALONG THIS
FRONT COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP.

OTHERWISE EXPECT A LITTLE RELIEF IN THE WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS AS
THE FRONT IS WEAK AND WASHES OUT. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S IN METRO BOS/PVD.

TOMORROW...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY YIELDING TO DRY
WEATHER FOR THE DAY. WITH MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ANTICIPATE DIURNAL CLOUDS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. OTHERWISE
WEAK WINDS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
COASTLINES. TEMPS WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS
REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH 70S ALONG BOTH COASTLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...AND A RESURGENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY WEATHER
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE...
ENABLING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO BRING INCREASING MOISTURE/HUMIDITY
TOWARDS OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST LATE IN THE DAY. WE COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT...WITH
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXTENDING EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THIS COLD FRONT PUSHES FARTHER INTO OUR AREA. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER INCREASING TO OVER 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION. EXPECTING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO CROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY...WITH A LOWER
RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY REACH THE SOUTH COAST BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER IT
STALLS NEAR OUR AREA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
POPS SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR
SOUTH OF OUR REGION A FRONT GETS PUSHED. THIS WILL AFFECT OUR
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. 28/00Z ECMWF REMAINS LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE 28/00Z GFS IN MOVING THIS FRONT FAR ENOUGH AWAY WHERE THERE
WOULD NOT BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ANYWHERE IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW EVOLUTION...WILL
KEEP AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE
GREATEST POPS TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST. DRIER WEATHER SHOULD BE MORE
PREVALENT TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LESS PROBABLE FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING...BRINGING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANY LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING...AT THE LATEST. OTHERWISE...VFR BUT A
COLD FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS. SOUTHWEST
WINDS COULD GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NW TONIGHT. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO START...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VSBYS DUE TO
RADIATION FOG. OTHERWISE VFR FOR TOMORROW WITH SEA BREEZES ALONG
THE MASS COASTLINE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING. STRATUS COULD LINGER LONGER THAN CURRENT EXPECTATIONS
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE COULD SEE BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN
ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS...
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT NIGHT...
WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLD/SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

MONDAY...CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT MVFR WITH SCT SHOWERS SOUTH
COASTAL MA/RI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY INTO FRIDAY/...

TODAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANOTHER ROUND OF NEAR SHORE
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION...A
FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND WASH OUT. THIS COULD YIELD TO FOG AND
STRATUS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WATERS
KEEPING SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECTING GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILD AGAIN TO
AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY...A COLD FRONT MAY LINGER NEAR THE WATERS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME...WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND GUSTS TO 20 KT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 281136
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
736 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A WIDESPREAD/SOAKING RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED. ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS.
FOR THIS WEEKEND...A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL BRING ARE GREATER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY
LINGER NEAR OUR AREA INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

** A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS
  AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ***

736 AM UPDATE...

SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE WARM...MOIST AIRMASS EARLY THIS
MORNING. STRATUS WAS ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALREADY
SEEING TRENDS IN THE SATELLITE AND CLOUD HEIGHT DATA WHICH
SUGGESTS A RELATIVELY QUICK DISSIPATION OF THE STRATUS...
ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST. TWEAKED NEAR-TERM FORECAST
TO BRING IT BACK IN LINE WITH OBSERVED TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TODAY...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TODAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS AS 850MB TEMPS WARM INTO 14-15C. THIS
WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE
SOUTH COAST. STABLE MARINE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH KEEPING
THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20-30 MPH AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY
PUSHING A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. 00Z
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH BY THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS WHICH WILL BE THE SOURCE OF LIFT FOR ANY CONVECTION.
APPEARS THAT THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE NORTH OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG AND
WITH 35 KTS OF SHEAR BELIEVE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REALLY DO NOT
STEEPEN TIL THE LATER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON...AND WITH DRY AIR
ALOFT PUSHING THROUGH...COULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE. ITS ALL ABOUT
PERFECT TIMING. THEREFORE BELIEVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS ACROSS
THE NW AND OVER THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY 20-23Z. NOT EXPECTING A
WIDESPREAD EVENT...BUT MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE.

MAIN THREAT WITHIN ANY STORM WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. BECAUSE TEMPS ALOFT ARE SO WARM BELIEVE THE THREAT FOR
HAIL IS LOW...BUT IF ANY STORMS SHOW ROTATION...SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT...BUT STALL JUST SOUTH OF
THE ISLANDS AS BERMUDA HIGH STILL DOMINATES THE WATERS. ALONG THIS
FRONT COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP.

OTHERWISE EXPECT A LITTLE RELIEF IN THE WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS AS
THE FRONT IS WEAK AND WASHES OUT. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S IN METRO BOS/PVD.

TOMORROW...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY YIELDING TO DRY
WEATHER FOR THE DAY. WITH MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ANTICIPATE DIURNAL CLOUDS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. OTHERWISE
WEAK WINDS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
COASTLINES. TEMPS WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS
REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH 70S ALONG BOTH COASTLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...AND A RESURGENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY WEATHER
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE...
ENABLING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO BRING INCREASING MOISTURE/HUMIDITY
TOWARDS OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST LATE IN THE DAY. WE COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT...WITH
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXTENDING EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THIS COLD FRONT PUSHES FARTHER INTO OUR AREA. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER INCREASING TO OVER 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION. EXPECTING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO CROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY...WITH A LOWER
RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY REACH THE SOUTH COAST BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER IT
STALLS NEAR OUR AREA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
POPS SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR
SOUTH OF OUR REGION A FRONT GETS PUSHED. THIS WILL AFFECT OUR
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. 28/00Z ECMWF REMAINS LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE 28/00Z GFS IN MOVING THIS FRONT FAR ENOUGH AWAY WHERE THERE
WOULD NOT BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ANYWHERE IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW EVOLUTION...WILL
KEEP AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE
GREATEST POPS TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST. DRIER WEATHER SHOULD BE MORE
PREVALENT TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LESS PROBABLE FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING...BRINGING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANY LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING...AT THE LATEST. OTHERWISE...VFR BUT A
COLD FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS. SOUTHWEST
WINDS COULD GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NW TONIGHT. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO START...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VSBYS DUE TO
RADIATION FOG. OTHERWISE VFR FOR TOMORROW WITH SEA BREEZES ALONG
THE MASS COASTLINE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING. STRATUS COULD LINGER LONGER THAN CURRENT EXPECTATIONS
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE COULD SEE BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN
ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS...
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT NIGHT...
WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLD/SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

MONDAY...CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT MVFR WITH SCT SHOWERS SOUTH
COASTAL MA/RI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY INTO FRIDAY/...

TODAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANOTHER ROUND OF NEAR SHORE
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION...A
FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND WASH OUT. THIS COULD YIELD TO FOG AND
STRATUS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WATERS
KEEPING SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECTING GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILD AGAIN TO
AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY...A COLD FRONT MAY LINGER NEAR THE WATERS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME...WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND GUSTS TO 20 KT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 281136
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
736 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A WIDESPREAD/SOAKING RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED. ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS.
FOR THIS WEEKEND...A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL BRING ARE GREATER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY
LINGER NEAR OUR AREA INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

** A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS
  AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ***

736 AM UPDATE...

SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE WARM...MOIST AIRMASS EARLY THIS
MORNING. STRATUS WAS ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALREADY
SEEING TRENDS IN THE SATELLITE AND CLOUD HEIGHT DATA WHICH
SUGGESTS A RELATIVELY QUICK DISSIPATION OF THE STRATUS...
ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST. TWEAKED NEAR-TERM FORECAST
TO BRING IT BACK IN LINE WITH OBSERVED TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TODAY...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TODAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS AS 850MB TEMPS WARM INTO 14-15C. THIS
WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE
SOUTH COAST. STABLE MARINE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH KEEPING
THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20-30 MPH AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY
PUSHING A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. 00Z
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH BY THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS WHICH WILL BE THE SOURCE OF LIFT FOR ANY CONVECTION.
APPEARS THAT THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE NORTH OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG AND
WITH 35 KTS OF SHEAR BELIEVE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REALLY DO NOT
STEEPEN TIL THE LATER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON...AND WITH DRY AIR
ALOFT PUSHING THROUGH...COULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE. ITS ALL ABOUT
PERFECT TIMING. THEREFORE BELIEVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS ACROSS
THE NW AND OVER THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY 20-23Z. NOT EXPECTING A
WIDESPREAD EVENT...BUT MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE.

MAIN THREAT WITHIN ANY STORM WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. BECAUSE TEMPS ALOFT ARE SO WARM BELIEVE THE THREAT FOR
HAIL IS LOW...BUT IF ANY STORMS SHOW ROTATION...SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT...BUT STALL JUST SOUTH OF
THE ISLANDS AS BERMUDA HIGH STILL DOMINATES THE WATERS. ALONG THIS
FRONT COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP.

OTHERWISE EXPECT A LITTLE RELIEF IN THE WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS AS
THE FRONT IS WEAK AND WASHES OUT. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S IN METRO BOS/PVD.

TOMORROW...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY YIELDING TO DRY
WEATHER FOR THE DAY. WITH MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ANTICIPATE DIURNAL CLOUDS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. OTHERWISE
WEAK WINDS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
COASTLINES. TEMPS WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS
REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH 70S ALONG BOTH COASTLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...AND A RESURGENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY WEATHER
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE...
ENABLING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO BRING INCREASING MOISTURE/HUMIDITY
TOWARDS OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST LATE IN THE DAY. WE COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT...WITH
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXTENDING EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THIS COLD FRONT PUSHES FARTHER INTO OUR AREA. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER INCREASING TO OVER 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION. EXPECTING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO CROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY...WITH A LOWER
RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY REACH THE SOUTH COAST BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER IT
STALLS NEAR OUR AREA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
POPS SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR
SOUTH OF OUR REGION A FRONT GETS PUSHED. THIS WILL AFFECT OUR
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. 28/00Z ECMWF REMAINS LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE 28/00Z GFS IN MOVING THIS FRONT FAR ENOUGH AWAY WHERE THERE
WOULD NOT BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ANYWHERE IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW EVOLUTION...WILL
KEEP AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE
GREATEST POPS TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST. DRIER WEATHER SHOULD BE MORE
PREVALENT TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LESS PROBABLE FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING...BRINGING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANY LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING...AT THE LATEST. OTHERWISE...VFR BUT A
COLD FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS. SOUTHWEST
WINDS COULD GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NW TONIGHT. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO START...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VSBYS DUE TO
RADIATION FOG. OTHERWISE VFR FOR TOMORROW WITH SEA BREEZES ALONG
THE MASS COASTLINE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING. STRATUS COULD LINGER LONGER THAN CURRENT EXPECTATIONS
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE COULD SEE BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN
ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS...
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT NIGHT...
WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLD/SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

MONDAY...CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT MVFR WITH SCT SHOWERS SOUTH
COASTAL MA/RI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY INTO FRIDAY/...

TODAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANOTHER ROUND OF NEAR SHORE
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION...A
FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND WASH OUT. THIS COULD YIELD TO FOG AND
STRATUS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WATERS
KEEPING SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECTING GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILD AGAIN TO
AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY...A COLD FRONT MAY LINGER NEAR THE WATERS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME...WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND GUSTS TO 20 KT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 281136
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
736 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A WIDESPREAD/SOAKING RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED. ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS.
FOR THIS WEEKEND...A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL BRING ARE GREATER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY
LINGER NEAR OUR AREA INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

** A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS
  AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ***

736 AM UPDATE...

SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE WARM...MOIST AIRMASS EARLY THIS
MORNING. STRATUS WAS ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALREADY
SEEING TRENDS IN THE SATELLITE AND CLOUD HEIGHT DATA WHICH
SUGGESTS A RELATIVELY QUICK DISSIPATION OF THE STRATUS...
ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST. TWEAKED NEAR-TERM FORECAST
TO BRING IT BACK IN LINE WITH OBSERVED TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TODAY...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TODAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS AS 850MB TEMPS WARM INTO 14-15C. THIS
WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE
SOUTH COAST. STABLE MARINE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH KEEPING
THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20-30 MPH AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY
PUSHING A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. 00Z
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH BY THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS WHICH WILL BE THE SOURCE OF LIFT FOR ANY CONVECTION.
APPEARS THAT THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE NORTH OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG AND
WITH 35 KTS OF SHEAR BELIEVE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REALLY DO NOT
STEEPEN TIL THE LATER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON...AND WITH DRY AIR
ALOFT PUSHING THROUGH...COULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE. ITS ALL ABOUT
PERFECT TIMING. THEREFORE BELIEVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS ACROSS
THE NW AND OVER THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY 20-23Z. NOT EXPECTING A
WIDESPREAD EVENT...BUT MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE.

MAIN THREAT WITHIN ANY STORM WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. BECAUSE TEMPS ALOFT ARE SO WARM BELIEVE THE THREAT FOR
HAIL IS LOW...BUT IF ANY STORMS SHOW ROTATION...SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT...BUT STALL JUST SOUTH OF
THE ISLANDS AS BERMUDA HIGH STILL DOMINATES THE WATERS. ALONG THIS
FRONT COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP.

OTHERWISE EXPECT A LITTLE RELIEF IN THE WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS AS
THE FRONT IS WEAK AND WASHES OUT. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S IN METRO BOS/PVD.

TOMORROW...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY YIELDING TO DRY
WEATHER FOR THE DAY. WITH MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ANTICIPATE DIURNAL CLOUDS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. OTHERWISE
WEAK WINDS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
COASTLINES. TEMPS WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS
REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH 70S ALONG BOTH COASTLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...AND A RESURGENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY WEATHER
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE...
ENABLING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO BRING INCREASING MOISTURE/HUMIDITY
TOWARDS OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST LATE IN THE DAY. WE COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT...WITH
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXTENDING EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THIS COLD FRONT PUSHES FARTHER INTO OUR AREA. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER INCREASING TO OVER 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION. EXPECTING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO CROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY...WITH A LOWER
RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY REACH THE SOUTH COAST BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER IT
STALLS NEAR OUR AREA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
POPS SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR
SOUTH OF OUR REGION A FRONT GETS PUSHED. THIS WILL AFFECT OUR
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. 28/00Z ECMWF REMAINS LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE 28/00Z GFS IN MOVING THIS FRONT FAR ENOUGH AWAY WHERE THERE
WOULD NOT BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ANYWHERE IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW EVOLUTION...WILL
KEEP AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE
GREATEST POPS TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST. DRIER WEATHER SHOULD BE MORE
PREVALENT TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LESS PROBABLE FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING...BRINGING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANY LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING...AT THE LATEST. OTHERWISE...VFR BUT A
COLD FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS. SOUTHWEST
WINDS COULD GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NW TONIGHT. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO START...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VSBYS DUE TO
RADIATION FOG. OTHERWISE VFR FOR TOMORROW WITH SEA BREEZES ALONG
THE MASS COASTLINE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING. STRATUS COULD LINGER LONGER THAN CURRENT EXPECTATIONS
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE COULD SEE BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN
ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS...
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT NIGHT...
WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLD/SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

MONDAY...CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT MVFR WITH SCT SHOWERS SOUTH
COASTAL MA/RI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY INTO FRIDAY/...

TODAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANOTHER ROUND OF NEAR SHORE
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION...A
FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND WASH OUT. THIS COULD YIELD TO FOG AND
STRATUS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WATERS
KEEPING SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECTING GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILD AGAIN TO
AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY...A COLD FRONT MAY LINGER NEAR THE WATERS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME...WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND GUSTS TO 20 KT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 281136
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
736 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A WIDESPREAD/SOAKING RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED. ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS.
FOR THIS WEEKEND...A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL BRING ARE GREATER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY
LINGER NEAR OUR AREA INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

** A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS
  AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ***

736 AM UPDATE...

SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE WARM...MOIST AIRMASS EARLY THIS
MORNING. STRATUS WAS ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALREADY
SEEING TRENDS IN THE SATELLITE AND CLOUD HEIGHT DATA WHICH
SUGGESTS A RELATIVELY QUICK DISSIPATION OF THE STRATUS...
ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST. TWEAKED NEAR-TERM FORECAST
TO BRING IT BACK IN LINE WITH OBSERVED TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TODAY...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TODAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS AS 850MB TEMPS WARM INTO 14-15C. THIS
WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE
SOUTH COAST. STABLE MARINE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH KEEPING
THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20-30 MPH AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY
PUSHING A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. 00Z
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH BY THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS WHICH WILL BE THE SOURCE OF LIFT FOR ANY CONVECTION.
APPEARS THAT THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE NORTH OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG AND
WITH 35 KTS OF SHEAR BELIEVE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REALLY DO NOT
STEEPEN TIL THE LATER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON...AND WITH DRY AIR
ALOFT PUSHING THROUGH...COULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE. ITS ALL ABOUT
PERFECT TIMING. THEREFORE BELIEVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS ACROSS
THE NW AND OVER THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY 20-23Z. NOT EXPECTING A
WIDESPREAD EVENT...BUT MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE.

MAIN THREAT WITHIN ANY STORM WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. BECAUSE TEMPS ALOFT ARE SO WARM BELIEVE THE THREAT FOR
HAIL IS LOW...BUT IF ANY STORMS SHOW ROTATION...SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT...BUT STALL JUST SOUTH OF
THE ISLANDS AS BERMUDA HIGH STILL DOMINATES THE WATERS. ALONG THIS
FRONT COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP.

OTHERWISE EXPECT A LITTLE RELIEF IN THE WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS AS
THE FRONT IS WEAK AND WASHES OUT. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S IN METRO BOS/PVD.

TOMORROW...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY YIELDING TO DRY
WEATHER FOR THE DAY. WITH MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ANTICIPATE DIURNAL CLOUDS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. OTHERWISE
WEAK WINDS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
COASTLINES. TEMPS WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS
REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH 70S ALONG BOTH COASTLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...AND A RESURGENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY WEATHER
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE...
ENABLING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO BRING INCREASING MOISTURE/HUMIDITY
TOWARDS OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST LATE IN THE DAY. WE COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT...WITH
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXTENDING EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THIS COLD FRONT PUSHES FARTHER INTO OUR AREA. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER INCREASING TO OVER 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION. EXPECTING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO CROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY...WITH A LOWER
RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY REACH THE SOUTH COAST BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER IT
STALLS NEAR OUR AREA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
POPS SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR
SOUTH OF OUR REGION A FRONT GETS PUSHED. THIS WILL AFFECT OUR
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. 28/00Z ECMWF REMAINS LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE 28/00Z GFS IN MOVING THIS FRONT FAR ENOUGH AWAY WHERE THERE
WOULD NOT BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ANYWHERE IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW EVOLUTION...WILL
KEEP AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE
GREATEST POPS TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST. DRIER WEATHER SHOULD BE MORE
PREVALENT TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LESS PROBABLE FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING...BRINGING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANY LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING...AT THE LATEST. OTHERWISE...VFR BUT A
COLD FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS. SOUTHWEST
WINDS COULD GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NW TONIGHT. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO START...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VSBYS DUE TO
RADIATION FOG. OTHERWISE VFR FOR TOMORROW WITH SEA BREEZES ALONG
THE MASS COASTLINE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING. STRATUS COULD LINGER LONGER THAN CURRENT EXPECTATIONS
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE COULD SEE BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN
ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS...
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT NIGHT...
WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLD/SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

MONDAY...CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT MVFR WITH SCT SHOWERS SOUTH
COASTAL MA/RI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY INTO FRIDAY/...

TODAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANOTHER ROUND OF NEAR SHORE
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION...A
FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND WASH OUT. THIS COULD YIELD TO FOG AND
STRATUS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WATERS
KEEPING SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECTING GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILD AGAIN TO
AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY...A COLD FRONT MAY LINGER NEAR THE WATERS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME...WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND GUSTS TO 20 KT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 281136
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
736 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A WIDESPREAD/SOAKING RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED. ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS.
FOR THIS WEEKEND...A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL BRING ARE GREATER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY
LINGER NEAR OUR AREA INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

** A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS
  AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ***

736 AM UPDATE...

SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE WARM...MOIST AIRMASS EARLY THIS
MORNING. STRATUS WAS ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALREADY
SEEING TRENDS IN THE SATELLITE AND CLOUD HEIGHT DATA WHICH
SUGGESTS A RELATIVELY QUICK DISSIPATION OF THE STRATUS...
ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST. TWEAKED NEAR-TERM FORECAST
TO BRING IT BACK IN LINE WITH OBSERVED TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TODAY...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TODAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS AS 850MB TEMPS WARM INTO 14-15C. THIS
WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE
SOUTH COAST. STABLE MARINE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH KEEPING
THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20-30 MPH AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY
PUSHING A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. 00Z
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH BY THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS WHICH WILL BE THE SOURCE OF LIFT FOR ANY CONVECTION.
APPEARS THAT THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE NORTH OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG AND
WITH 35 KTS OF SHEAR BELIEVE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REALLY DO NOT
STEEPEN TIL THE LATER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON...AND WITH DRY AIR
ALOFT PUSHING THROUGH...COULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE. ITS ALL ABOUT
PERFECT TIMING. THEREFORE BELIEVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS ACROSS
THE NW AND OVER THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY 20-23Z. NOT EXPECTING A
WIDESPREAD EVENT...BUT MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE.

MAIN THREAT WITHIN ANY STORM WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. BECAUSE TEMPS ALOFT ARE SO WARM BELIEVE THE THREAT FOR
HAIL IS LOW...BUT IF ANY STORMS SHOW ROTATION...SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT...BUT STALL JUST SOUTH OF
THE ISLANDS AS BERMUDA HIGH STILL DOMINATES THE WATERS. ALONG THIS
FRONT COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP.

OTHERWISE EXPECT A LITTLE RELIEF IN THE WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS AS
THE FRONT IS WEAK AND WASHES OUT. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S IN METRO BOS/PVD.

TOMORROW...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY YIELDING TO DRY
WEATHER FOR THE DAY. WITH MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ANTICIPATE DIURNAL CLOUDS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. OTHERWISE
WEAK WINDS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
COASTLINES. TEMPS WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS
REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH 70S ALONG BOTH COASTLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...AND A RESURGENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY WEATHER
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE...
ENABLING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO BRING INCREASING MOISTURE/HUMIDITY
TOWARDS OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST LATE IN THE DAY. WE COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT...WITH
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXTENDING EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THIS COLD FRONT PUSHES FARTHER INTO OUR AREA. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER INCREASING TO OVER 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION. EXPECTING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO CROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY...WITH A LOWER
RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY REACH THE SOUTH COAST BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER IT
STALLS NEAR OUR AREA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
POPS SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR
SOUTH OF OUR REGION A FRONT GETS PUSHED. THIS WILL AFFECT OUR
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. 28/00Z ECMWF REMAINS LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE 28/00Z GFS IN MOVING THIS FRONT FAR ENOUGH AWAY WHERE THERE
WOULD NOT BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ANYWHERE IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW EVOLUTION...WILL
KEEP AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE
GREATEST POPS TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST. DRIER WEATHER SHOULD BE MORE
PREVALENT TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LESS PROBABLE FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING...BRINGING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANY LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING...AT THE LATEST. OTHERWISE...VFR BUT A
COLD FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS. SOUTHWEST
WINDS COULD GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NW TONIGHT. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO START...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VSBYS DUE TO
RADIATION FOG. OTHERWISE VFR FOR TOMORROW WITH SEA BREEZES ALONG
THE MASS COASTLINE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING. STRATUS COULD LINGER LONGER THAN CURRENT EXPECTATIONS
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE COULD SEE BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN
ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS...
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT NIGHT...
WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLD/SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

MONDAY...CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT MVFR WITH SCT SHOWERS SOUTH
COASTAL MA/RI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY INTO FRIDAY/...

TODAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANOTHER ROUND OF NEAR SHORE
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION...A
FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND WASH OUT. THIS COULD YIELD TO FOG AND
STRATUS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WATERS
KEEPING SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECTING GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILD AGAIN TO
AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY...A COLD FRONT MAY LINGER NEAR THE WATERS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME...WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND GUSTS TO 20 KT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 281136
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
736 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A WIDESPREAD/SOAKING RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED. ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS.
FOR THIS WEEKEND...A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL BRING ARE GREATER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY
LINGER NEAR OUR AREA INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

** A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS
  AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ***

736 AM UPDATE...

SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE WARM...MOIST AIRMASS EARLY THIS
MORNING. STRATUS WAS ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALREADY
SEEING TRENDS IN THE SATELLITE AND CLOUD HEIGHT DATA WHICH
SUGGESTS A RELATIVELY QUICK DISSIPATION OF THE STRATUS...
ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST. TWEAKED NEAR-TERM FORECAST
TO BRING IT BACK IN LINE WITH OBSERVED TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TODAY...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TODAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS AS 850MB TEMPS WARM INTO 14-15C. THIS
WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE
SOUTH COAST. STABLE MARINE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH KEEPING
THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20-30 MPH AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY
PUSHING A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. 00Z
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH BY THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS WHICH WILL BE THE SOURCE OF LIFT FOR ANY CONVECTION.
APPEARS THAT THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE NORTH OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG AND
WITH 35 KTS OF SHEAR BELIEVE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REALLY DO NOT
STEEPEN TIL THE LATER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON...AND WITH DRY AIR
ALOFT PUSHING THROUGH...COULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE. ITS ALL ABOUT
PERFECT TIMING. THEREFORE BELIEVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS ACROSS
THE NW AND OVER THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY 20-23Z. NOT EXPECTING A
WIDESPREAD EVENT...BUT MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE.

MAIN THREAT WITHIN ANY STORM WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. BECAUSE TEMPS ALOFT ARE SO WARM BELIEVE THE THREAT FOR
HAIL IS LOW...BUT IF ANY STORMS SHOW ROTATION...SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT...BUT STALL JUST SOUTH OF
THE ISLANDS AS BERMUDA HIGH STILL DOMINATES THE WATERS. ALONG THIS
FRONT COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP.

OTHERWISE EXPECT A LITTLE RELIEF IN THE WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS AS
THE FRONT IS WEAK AND WASHES OUT. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S IN METRO BOS/PVD.

TOMORROW...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY YIELDING TO DRY
WEATHER FOR THE DAY. WITH MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ANTICIPATE DIURNAL CLOUDS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. OTHERWISE
WEAK WINDS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
COASTLINES. TEMPS WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS
REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH 70S ALONG BOTH COASTLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...AND A RESURGENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY WEATHER
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE...
ENABLING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO BRING INCREASING MOISTURE/HUMIDITY
TOWARDS OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST LATE IN THE DAY. WE COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT...WITH
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXTENDING EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THIS COLD FRONT PUSHES FARTHER INTO OUR AREA. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER INCREASING TO OVER 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION. EXPECTING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO CROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY...WITH A LOWER
RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY REACH THE SOUTH COAST BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER IT
STALLS NEAR OUR AREA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
POPS SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR
SOUTH OF OUR REGION A FRONT GETS PUSHED. THIS WILL AFFECT OUR
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. 28/00Z ECMWF REMAINS LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE 28/00Z GFS IN MOVING THIS FRONT FAR ENOUGH AWAY WHERE THERE
WOULD NOT BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ANYWHERE IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW EVOLUTION...WILL
KEEP AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE
GREATEST POPS TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST. DRIER WEATHER SHOULD BE MORE
PREVALENT TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LESS PROBABLE FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING...BRINGING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANY LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING...AT THE LATEST. OTHERWISE...VFR BUT A
COLD FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS. SOUTHWEST
WINDS COULD GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NW TONIGHT. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO START...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VSBYS DUE TO
RADIATION FOG. OTHERWISE VFR FOR TOMORROW WITH SEA BREEZES ALONG
THE MASS COASTLINE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING. STRATUS COULD LINGER LONGER THAN CURRENT EXPECTATIONS
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE COULD SEE BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN
ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS...
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT NIGHT...
WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLD/SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

MONDAY...CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT MVFR WITH SCT SHOWERS SOUTH
COASTAL MA/RI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY INTO FRIDAY/...

TODAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANOTHER ROUND OF NEAR SHORE
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION...A
FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND WASH OUT. THIS COULD YIELD TO FOG AND
STRATUS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WATERS
KEEPING SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECTING GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILD AGAIN TO
AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY...A COLD FRONT MAY LINGER NEAR THE WATERS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME...WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND GUSTS TO 20 KT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 281136
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
736 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A WIDESPREAD/SOAKING RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED. ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS.
FOR THIS WEEKEND...A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL BRING ARE GREATER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY
LINGER NEAR OUR AREA INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

** A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS
  AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ***

736 AM UPDATE...

SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE WARM...MOIST AIRMASS EARLY THIS
MORNING. STRATUS WAS ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ALREADY
SEEING TRENDS IN THE SATELLITE AND CLOUD HEIGHT DATA WHICH
SUGGESTS A RELATIVELY QUICK DISSIPATION OF THE STRATUS...
ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST. TWEAKED NEAR-TERM FORECAST
TO BRING IT BACK IN LINE WITH OBSERVED TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TODAY...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TODAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS AS 850MB TEMPS WARM INTO 14-15C. THIS
WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE
SOUTH COAST. STABLE MARINE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH KEEPING
THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20-30 MPH AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY
PUSHING A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. 00Z
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH BY THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS WHICH WILL BE THE SOURCE OF LIFT FOR ANY CONVECTION.
APPEARS THAT THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE NORTH OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG AND
WITH 35 KTS OF SHEAR BELIEVE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REALLY DO NOT
STEEPEN TIL THE LATER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON...AND WITH DRY AIR
ALOFT PUSHING THROUGH...COULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE. ITS ALL ABOUT
PERFECT TIMING. THEREFORE BELIEVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS ACROSS
THE NW AND OVER THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY 20-23Z. NOT EXPECTING A
WIDESPREAD EVENT...BUT MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE.

MAIN THREAT WITHIN ANY STORM WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. BECAUSE TEMPS ALOFT ARE SO WARM BELIEVE THE THREAT FOR
HAIL IS LOW...BUT IF ANY STORMS SHOW ROTATION...SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT...BUT STALL JUST SOUTH OF
THE ISLANDS AS BERMUDA HIGH STILL DOMINATES THE WATERS. ALONG THIS
FRONT COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP.

OTHERWISE EXPECT A LITTLE RELIEF IN THE WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS AS
THE FRONT IS WEAK AND WASHES OUT. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S IN METRO BOS/PVD.

TOMORROW...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY YIELDING TO DRY
WEATHER FOR THE DAY. WITH MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ANTICIPATE DIURNAL CLOUDS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. OTHERWISE
WEAK WINDS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
COASTLINES. TEMPS WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS
REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH 70S ALONG BOTH COASTLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...AND A RESURGENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY WEATHER
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE...
ENABLING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO BRING INCREASING MOISTURE/HUMIDITY
TOWARDS OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST LATE IN THE DAY. WE COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT...WITH
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXTENDING EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THIS COLD FRONT PUSHES FARTHER INTO OUR AREA. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER INCREASING TO OVER 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION. EXPECTING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO CROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY...WITH A LOWER
RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY REACH THE SOUTH COAST BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER IT
STALLS NEAR OUR AREA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
POPS SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR
SOUTH OF OUR REGION A FRONT GETS PUSHED. THIS WILL AFFECT OUR
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. 28/00Z ECMWF REMAINS LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE 28/00Z GFS IN MOVING THIS FRONT FAR ENOUGH AWAY WHERE THERE
WOULD NOT BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ANYWHERE IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW EVOLUTION...WILL
KEEP AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE
GREATEST POPS TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST. DRIER WEATHER SHOULD BE MORE
PREVALENT TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LESS PROBABLE FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING...BRINGING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANY LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING...AT THE LATEST. OTHERWISE...VFR BUT A
COLD FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS. SOUTHWEST
WINDS COULD GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NW TONIGHT. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO START...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VSBYS DUE TO
RADIATION FOG. OTHERWISE VFR FOR TOMORROW WITH SEA BREEZES ALONG
THE MASS COASTLINE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING. STRATUS COULD LINGER LONGER THAN CURRENT EXPECTATIONS
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE COULD SEE BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN
ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS...
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT NIGHT...
WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLD/SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

MONDAY...CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT MVFR WITH SCT SHOWERS SOUTH
COASTAL MA/RI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY INTO FRIDAY/...

TODAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANOTHER ROUND OF NEAR SHORE
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION...A
FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND WASH OUT. THIS COULD YIELD TO FOG AND
STRATUS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WATERS
KEEPING SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECTING GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILD AGAIN TO
AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY...A COLD FRONT MAY LINGER NEAR THE WATERS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME...WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND GUSTS TO 20 KT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 280828
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
428 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A WIDESPREAD/SOAKING RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED. ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS.
FOR THIS WEEKEND...A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL BRING ARE GREATER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY
LINGER NEAR OUR AREA INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
** A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS
  AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ***

4 AM UPDATE...

SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE WARM...MOIST AIRMASS EARLY THIS
MORNING. TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING ALLOWING FOR THE LOW LEVELS TO
MOISTEN UP BRINGING IN STRATUS AND FOG OVER THE CAPE AND EVEN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH COAST.

MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE CT VALLEY AS PRECIP FROM
LAST NIGHT ADDED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE PROFILE AND WITH DRY AIR
MOVING ALOFT COULD CREATE A SUBTLE INVERSION.

TODAY...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TODAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS AS 850MB TEMPS WARM INTO 14-15C. THIS
WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE
SOUTH COAST. STABLE MARINE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH KEEPING
THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20-30 MPH AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY
PUSHING A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. 00Z
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH BY THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS WHICH WILL BE THE SOURCE OF LIFT FOR ANY CONVECTION.
APPEARS THAT THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE NORTH OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG AND
WITH 35 KTS OF SHEAR BELIEVE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REALLY DO NOT
STEEPEN TIL THE LATER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON...AND WITH DRY AIR
ALOFT PUSHING THROUGH...COULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE. ITS ALL ABOUT
PERFECT TIMING. THEREFORE BELIEVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS ACROSS
THE NW AND OVER THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY 20-23Z. NOT EXPECTING A
WIDESPREAD EVENT...BUT MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE.

MAIN THREAT WITHIN ANY STORM WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. BECAUSE TEMPS ALOFT ARE SO WARM BELIEVE THE THREAT FOR
HAIL IS LOW...BUT IF ANY STORMS SHOW ROTATION...SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT...BUT STALL JUST SOUTH OF
THE ISLANDS AS BERMUDA HIGH STILL DOMINATES THE WATERS. ALONG THIS
FRONT COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP.

OTHERWISE EXPECT A LITTLE RELIEF IN THE WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS AS
THE FRONT IS WEAK AND WASHES OUT. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S IN METRO BOS/PVD.

TOMORROW...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY YIELDING TO DRY
WEATHER FOR THE DAY. WITH MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ANTICIPATE DIURNAL CLOUDS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. OTHERWISE
WEAK WINDS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
COASTLINES. TEMPS WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS
REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH 70S ALONG BOTH COASTLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...AND A RESURGENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY WEATHER
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE...
ENABLING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO BRING INCREASING MOISTURE/HUMIDITY
TOWARDS OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST LATE IN THE DAY. WE COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT...WITH
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXTENDING EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THIS COLD FRONT PUSHES FARTHER INTO OUR AREA. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER INCREASING TO OVER 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION. EXPECTING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO CROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY...WITH A LOWER
RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY REACH THE SOUTH COAST BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER IT
STALLS NEAR OUR AREA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
POPS SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR
SOUTH OF OUR REGION A FRONT GETS PUSHED. THIS WILL AFFECT OUR
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. 28/00Z ECMWF REMAINS LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE 28/00Z GFS IN MOVING THIS FRONT FAR ENOUGH AWAY WHERE THERE
WOULD NOT BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ANYWHERE IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW EVOLUTION...WILL
KEEP AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE
GREATEST POPS TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST. DRIER WEATHER SHOULD BE MORE
PREVALENT TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LESS PROBABLE FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING...BRINGING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.


BEFORE 12Z...IFR STRATUS AND FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN
SITES THAT SAW PRECIP EARLY TONIGHT AND MARINE STRATUS ACROSS
THE CAPE. THERE IS A LOW PROB THAT VSBYS MAY DROP BELOW 1SM.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANY LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BURN
OFF BY LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR BUT A COLD FRONT/PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS COULD GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NW TONIGHT. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO START...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VSBYS DUE TO
RADIATION FOG. OTHERWISE VFR FOR TOMORROW WITH SEA BREEZES ALONG
THE MASS COASTLINE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MAY SEE LOWERED VSBYS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE COULD SEE BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS...
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT NIGHT...
WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLD/SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

MONDAY...CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT MVFR WITH SCT SHOWERS SOUTH
COASTAL MA/RI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY INTO FRIDAY/...

TODAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANOTHER ROUND OF NEAR SHORE
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION...A
FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND WASH OUT. THIS COULD YIELD TO FOG AND
STRATUS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WATERS
KEEPING SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECTING GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILD AGAIN TO
AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY...A COLD FRONT MAY LINGER NEAR THE WATERS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME...WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND GUSTS TO 20 KT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 280828
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
428 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A WIDESPREAD/SOAKING RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED. ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS.
FOR THIS WEEKEND...A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL BRING ARE GREATER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY
LINGER NEAR OUR AREA INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
** A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS
  AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ***

4 AM UPDATE...

SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE WARM...MOIST AIRMASS EARLY THIS
MORNING. TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING ALLOWING FOR THE LOW LEVELS TO
MOISTEN UP BRINGING IN STRATUS AND FOG OVER THE CAPE AND EVEN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH COAST.

MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE CT VALLEY AS PRECIP FROM
LAST NIGHT ADDED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE PROFILE AND WITH DRY AIR
MOVING ALOFT COULD CREATE A SUBTLE INVERSION.

TODAY...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TODAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS AS 850MB TEMPS WARM INTO 14-15C. THIS
WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE
SOUTH COAST. STABLE MARINE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH KEEPING
THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20-30 MPH AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY
PUSHING A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. 00Z
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH BY THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS WHICH WILL BE THE SOURCE OF LIFT FOR ANY CONVECTION.
APPEARS THAT THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE NORTH OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG AND
WITH 35 KTS OF SHEAR BELIEVE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REALLY DO NOT
STEEPEN TIL THE LATER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON...AND WITH DRY AIR
ALOFT PUSHING THROUGH...COULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE. ITS ALL ABOUT
PERFECT TIMING. THEREFORE BELIEVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS ACROSS
THE NW AND OVER THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY 20-23Z. NOT EXPECTING A
WIDESPREAD EVENT...BUT MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE.

MAIN THREAT WITHIN ANY STORM WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. BECAUSE TEMPS ALOFT ARE SO WARM BELIEVE THE THREAT FOR
HAIL IS LOW...BUT IF ANY STORMS SHOW ROTATION...SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT...BUT STALL JUST SOUTH OF
THE ISLANDS AS BERMUDA HIGH STILL DOMINATES THE WATERS. ALONG THIS
FRONT COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP.

OTHERWISE EXPECT A LITTLE RELIEF IN THE WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS AS
THE FRONT IS WEAK AND WASHES OUT. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S IN METRO BOS/PVD.

TOMORROW...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY YIELDING TO DRY
WEATHER FOR THE DAY. WITH MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ANTICIPATE DIURNAL CLOUDS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. OTHERWISE
WEAK WINDS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
COASTLINES. TEMPS WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS
REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH 70S ALONG BOTH COASTLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...AND A RESURGENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY WEATHER
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE...
ENABLING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO BRING INCREASING MOISTURE/HUMIDITY
TOWARDS OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST LATE IN THE DAY. WE COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT...WITH
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXTENDING EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THIS COLD FRONT PUSHES FARTHER INTO OUR AREA. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER INCREASING TO OVER 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION. EXPECTING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO CROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY...WITH A LOWER
RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY REACH THE SOUTH COAST BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER IT
STALLS NEAR OUR AREA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
POPS SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR
SOUTH OF OUR REGION A FRONT GETS PUSHED. THIS WILL AFFECT OUR
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. 28/00Z ECMWF REMAINS LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE 28/00Z GFS IN MOVING THIS FRONT FAR ENOUGH AWAY WHERE THERE
WOULD NOT BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ANYWHERE IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW EVOLUTION...WILL
KEEP AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE
GREATEST POPS TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST. DRIER WEATHER SHOULD BE MORE
PREVALENT TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LESS PROBABLE FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING...BRINGING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.


BEFORE 12Z...IFR STRATUS AND FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN
SITES THAT SAW PRECIP EARLY TONIGHT AND MARINE STRATUS ACROSS
THE CAPE. THERE IS A LOW PROB THAT VSBYS MAY DROP BELOW 1SM.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANY LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BURN
OFF BY LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR BUT A COLD FRONT/PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS COULD GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NW TONIGHT. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO START...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VSBYS DUE TO
RADIATION FOG. OTHERWISE VFR FOR TOMORROW WITH SEA BREEZES ALONG
THE MASS COASTLINE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MAY SEE LOWERED VSBYS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE COULD SEE BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS...
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT NIGHT...
WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLD/SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

MONDAY...CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT MVFR WITH SCT SHOWERS SOUTH
COASTAL MA/RI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY INTO FRIDAY/...

TODAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANOTHER ROUND OF NEAR SHORE
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION...A
FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND WASH OUT. THIS COULD YIELD TO FOG AND
STRATUS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WATERS
KEEPING SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECTING GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILD AGAIN TO
AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY...A COLD FRONT MAY LINGER NEAR THE WATERS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME...WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND GUSTS TO 20 KT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 280828
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
428 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A WIDESPREAD/SOAKING RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED. ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS.
FOR THIS WEEKEND...A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL BRING ARE GREATER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY
LINGER NEAR OUR AREA INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
** A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS
  AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ***

4 AM UPDATE...

SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE WARM...MOIST AIRMASS EARLY THIS
MORNING. TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING ALLOWING FOR THE LOW LEVELS TO
MOISTEN UP BRINGING IN STRATUS AND FOG OVER THE CAPE AND EVEN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH COAST.

MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE CT VALLEY AS PRECIP FROM
LAST NIGHT ADDED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE PROFILE AND WITH DRY AIR
MOVING ALOFT COULD CREATE A SUBTLE INVERSION.

TODAY...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TODAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS AS 850MB TEMPS WARM INTO 14-15C. THIS
WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE
SOUTH COAST. STABLE MARINE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH KEEPING
THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20-30 MPH AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY
PUSHING A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. 00Z
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH BY THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS WHICH WILL BE THE SOURCE OF LIFT FOR ANY CONVECTION.
APPEARS THAT THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE NORTH OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG AND
WITH 35 KTS OF SHEAR BELIEVE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REALLY DO NOT
STEEPEN TIL THE LATER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON...AND WITH DRY AIR
ALOFT PUSHING THROUGH...COULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE. ITS ALL ABOUT
PERFECT TIMING. THEREFORE BELIEVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS ACROSS
THE NW AND OVER THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY 20-23Z. NOT EXPECTING A
WIDESPREAD EVENT...BUT MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE.

MAIN THREAT WITHIN ANY STORM WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. BECAUSE TEMPS ALOFT ARE SO WARM BELIEVE THE THREAT FOR
HAIL IS LOW...BUT IF ANY STORMS SHOW ROTATION...SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT...BUT STALL JUST SOUTH OF
THE ISLANDS AS BERMUDA HIGH STILL DOMINATES THE WATERS. ALONG THIS
FRONT COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP.

OTHERWISE EXPECT A LITTLE RELIEF IN THE WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS AS
THE FRONT IS WEAK AND WASHES OUT. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S IN METRO BOS/PVD.

TOMORROW...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY YIELDING TO DRY
WEATHER FOR THE DAY. WITH MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ANTICIPATE DIURNAL CLOUDS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. OTHERWISE
WEAK WINDS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
COASTLINES. TEMPS WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS
REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH 70S ALONG BOTH COASTLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...AND A RESURGENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY WEATHER
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE...
ENABLING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO BRING INCREASING MOISTURE/HUMIDITY
TOWARDS OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST LATE IN THE DAY. WE COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT...WITH
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXTENDING EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THIS COLD FRONT PUSHES FARTHER INTO OUR AREA. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER INCREASING TO OVER 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION. EXPECTING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO CROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY...WITH A LOWER
RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY REACH THE SOUTH COAST BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER IT
STALLS NEAR OUR AREA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
POPS SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR
SOUTH OF OUR REGION A FRONT GETS PUSHED. THIS WILL AFFECT OUR
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. 28/00Z ECMWF REMAINS LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE 28/00Z GFS IN MOVING THIS FRONT FAR ENOUGH AWAY WHERE THERE
WOULD NOT BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ANYWHERE IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW EVOLUTION...WILL
KEEP AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE
GREATEST POPS TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST. DRIER WEATHER SHOULD BE MORE
PREVALENT TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LESS PROBABLE FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING...BRINGING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.


BEFORE 12Z...IFR STRATUS AND FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN
SITES THAT SAW PRECIP EARLY TONIGHT AND MARINE STRATUS ACROSS
THE CAPE. THERE IS A LOW PROB THAT VSBYS MAY DROP BELOW 1SM.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANY LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BURN
OFF BY LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR BUT A COLD FRONT/PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS COULD GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NW TONIGHT. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO START...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VSBYS DUE TO
RADIATION FOG. OTHERWISE VFR FOR TOMORROW WITH SEA BREEZES ALONG
THE MASS COASTLINE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MAY SEE LOWERED VSBYS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE COULD SEE BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS...
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT NIGHT...
WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLD/SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

MONDAY...CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT MVFR WITH SCT SHOWERS SOUTH
COASTAL MA/RI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY INTO FRIDAY/...

TODAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANOTHER ROUND OF NEAR SHORE
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION...A
FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND WASH OUT. THIS COULD YIELD TO FOG AND
STRATUS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WATERS
KEEPING SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECTING GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILD AGAIN TO
AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY...A COLD FRONT MAY LINGER NEAR THE WATERS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME...WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND GUSTS TO 20 KT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 280828
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
428 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A WIDESPREAD/SOAKING RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED. ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS.
FOR THIS WEEKEND...A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL BRING ARE GREATER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY
LINGER NEAR OUR AREA INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
** A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS
  AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ***

4 AM UPDATE...

SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE WARM...MOIST AIRMASS EARLY THIS
MORNING. TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING ALLOWING FOR THE LOW LEVELS TO
MOISTEN UP BRINGING IN STRATUS AND FOG OVER THE CAPE AND EVEN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH COAST.

MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE CT VALLEY AS PRECIP FROM
LAST NIGHT ADDED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE PROFILE AND WITH DRY AIR
MOVING ALOFT COULD CREATE A SUBTLE INVERSION.

TODAY...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TODAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS AS 850MB TEMPS WARM INTO 14-15C. THIS
WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE
SOUTH COAST. STABLE MARINE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH KEEPING
THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20-30 MPH AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY
PUSHING A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. 00Z
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH BY THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS WHICH WILL BE THE SOURCE OF LIFT FOR ANY CONVECTION.
APPEARS THAT THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE NORTH OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG AND
WITH 35 KTS OF SHEAR BELIEVE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REALLY DO NOT
STEEPEN TIL THE LATER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON...AND WITH DRY AIR
ALOFT PUSHING THROUGH...COULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE. ITS ALL ABOUT
PERFECT TIMING. THEREFORE BELIEVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS ACROSS
THE NW AND OVER THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY 20-23Z. NOT EXPECTING A
WIDESPREAD EVENT...BUT MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE.

MAIN THREAT WITHIN ANY STORM WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. BECAUSE TEMPS ALOFT ARE SO WARM BELIEVE THE THREAT FOR
HAIL IS LOW...BUT IF ANY STORMS SHOW ROTATION...SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT...BUT STALL JUST SOUTH OF
THE ISLANDS AS BERMUDA HIGH STILL DOMINATES THE WATERS. ALONG THIS
FRONT COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP.

OTHERWISE EXPECT A LITTLE RELIEF IN THE WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS AS
THE FRONT IS WEAK AND WASHES OUT. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S IN METRO BOS/PVD.

TOMORROW...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY YIELDING TO DRY
WEATHER FOR THE DAY. WITH MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ANTICIPATE DIURNAL CLOUDS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. OTHERWISE
WEAK WINDS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
COASTLINES. TEMPS WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS
REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH 70S ALONG BOTH COASTLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...AND A RESURGENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY WEATHER
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE...
ENABLING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO BRING INCREASING MOISTURE/HUMIDITY
TOWARDS OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST LATE IN THE DAY. WE COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT...WITH
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXTENDING EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THIS COLD FRONT PUSHES FARTHER INTO OUR AREA. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER INCREASING TO OVER 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION. EXPECTING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO CROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY...WITH A LOWER
RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY REACH THE SOUTH COAST BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER IT
STALLS NEAR OUR AREA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
POPS SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR
SOUTH OF OUR REGION A FRONT GETS PUSHED. THIS WILL AFFECT OUR
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. 28/00Z ECMWF REMAINS LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE 28/00Z GFS IN MOVING THIS FRONT FAR ENOUGH AWAY WHERE THERE
WOULD NOT BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ANYWHERE IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW EVOLUTION...WILL
KEEP AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE
GREATEST POPS TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST. DRIER WEATHER SHOULD BE MORE
PREVALENT TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LESS PROBABLE FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING...BRINGING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.


BEFORE 12Z...IFR STRATUS AND FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN
SITES THAT SAW PRECIP EARLY TONIGHT AND MARINE STRATUS ACROSS
THE CAPE. THERE IS A LOW PROB THAT VSBYS MAY DROP BELOW 1SM.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANY LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BURN
OFF BY LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR BUT A COLD FRONT/PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS COULD GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NW TONIGHT. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO START...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VSBYS DUE TO
RADIATION FOG. OTHERWISE VFR FOR TOMORROW WITH SEA BREEZES ALONG
THE MASS COASTLINE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MAY SEE LOWERED VSBYS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE COULD SEE BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS...
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT NIGHT...
WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLD/SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

MONDAY...CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT MVFR WITH SCT SHOWERS SOUTH
COASTAL MA/RI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY INTO FRIDAY/...

TODAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANOTHER ROUND OF NEAR SHORE
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION...A
FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND WASH OUT. THIS COULD YIELD TO FOG AND
STRATUS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WATERS
KEEPING SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECTING GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILD AGAIN TO
AROUND 5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY...A COLD FRONT MAY LINGER NEAR THE WATERS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME...WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND GUSTS TO 20 KT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 280749
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
349 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON BUT A WIDESPREAD/SOAKING RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED. ON FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS.
FOR THIS WEEKEND...A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY LINGER NEAR OUR
AREA INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

** A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS
  AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ***

4 AM UPDATE...

SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE WARM...MOIST AIRMASS EARLY THIS
MORNING. TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING ALLOWING FOR THE LOW LEVELS TO
MOISTEN UP BRINGING IN STRATUS AND FOG OVER THE CAPE AND EVEN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH COAST.

MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE CT VALLEY AS PRECIP FROM
LAST NIGHT ADDED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE PROFILE AND WITH DRY AIR
MOVING ALOFT COULD CREATE A SUBTLE INVERSION.

TODAY...

WARM...MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR TODAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS AS 850MB TEMPS WARM INTO 14-15C. THIS
WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE
SOUTH COAST. STABLE MARINE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH KEEPING
THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20-30 MPH AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY
PUSHING A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. 00Z
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH BY THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS WHICH WILL BE THE SOURCE OF LIFT FOR ANY CONVECTION.
APPEARS THAT THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE NORTH OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG AND
WITH 35 KTS OF SHEAR BELIEVE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REALLY DO NOT
STEEPEN TIL THE LATER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON...AND WITH DRY AIR
ALOFT PUSHING THROUGH...COULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE. ITS ALL ABOUT
PERFECT TIMING. THEREFORE BELIEVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS ACROSS
THE NW AND OVER THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY 20-23Z. NOT EXPECTING A
WIDESPREAD EVENT...BUT MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE.

MAIN THREAT WITHIN ANY STORM WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. BECAUSE TEMPS ALOFT ARE SO WARM BELIEVE THE THREAT FOR
HAIL IS LOW...BUT IF ANY STORMS SHOW ROTATION...SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...

TONIGHT...

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT...BUT STALL JUST SOUTH OF
THE ISLANDS AS BERMUDA HIGH STILL DOMINATES THE WATERS. ALONG THIS
FRONT COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP.

OTHERWISE EXPECT A LITTLE RELIEF IN THE WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS AS
THE FRONT IS WEAK AND WASHES OUT. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S IN METRO BOS/PVD.

TOMORROW...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY YIELDING TO DRY
WEATHER FOR THE DAY. WITH MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ANTICIPATE DIURNAL CLOUDS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. OTHERWISE
WEAK WINDS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
COASTLINES. TEMPS WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS
REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH 70S ALONG BOTH COASTLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY EVENING. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDER EARLY ACROSS EAST AND SOUTH COASTAL AREAS
WITH THE FRONT...THEN PRECIP CHANCES COME TO AN END AND HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP ALONG SOUTH COASTAL MA AND RI.

FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND PASSING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRING
A MAINLY DRY DAY TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A BIT LESS WARM WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S...EXCEPT ONSHORE WINDS KEEP TEMPS LOWER
CLOSE TO THE SHORELINE.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE...ENABLING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO BRING INCREASING MOISTURE/HUMIDITY TOWARDS OUR
AREA. LATE IN THE DAY A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST...EMERGING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND QUEBEC.  WE
COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON
IN WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT...WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
EXTENDING EASTWARD SATURDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO
OUR AREA. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO OVER 1.5 INCHES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY... COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION DURING SUNDAY.
EXPECTING SHOWERS TO CROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY...LOWER CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT MAY REACH THE SOUTH COAST BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE FRONT HANGS
UP IN OUR AREA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE WITH
HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY...THEN CHANCE POPS THRU SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT TRACKS EVEN INTO THIS TIMEFRAME...WHETHER IT STALLS
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OR FURTHER OFFSHORE. THIS WILL AFFECT OUR
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. 00Z ECMWF WAS LEAST PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
FRONT...BUT THE 12Z ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE...NUDGING THE FRONT
SOUTH OF OUR AREA FOR MONDAY EVENING. 12Z GFS HAS OUR AREA MAINLY
DRY ON MONDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY...AND TUESDAY GOING MAINLY DRY...WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS ALONG SOUTH COASTAL LOCALES. THUNDER LOOKS LESS
PROBABLE FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BRINGING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.


BEFORE 12Z...IFR STRATUS AND FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN
SITES THAT SAW PRECIP EARLY TONIGHT AND MARINE STRATUS ACROSS
THE CAPE. THERE IS A LOW PROB THAT VSBYS MAY DROP BELOW 1SM.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANY LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BURN
OFF BY LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR BUT A COLD FRONT/PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS COULD GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.

TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NW TONIGHT. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO START...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VSBYS DUE TO
RADIATION FOG. OTHERWISE VFR FOR TOMORROW WITH SEA BREEZES ALONG
THE MASS COASTLINE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MAY SEE LOWERED VSBYS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE COULD SEE BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS...
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT NIGHT...
WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS LINGER WITH ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

MONDAY...CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT MVFR WITH SCT SHOWERS SOUTH
COASTAL MA/RI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY INTO FRIDAY/...

TODAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANOTHER ROUND OF NEAR SHORE
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION...A
FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND WASH OUT. THIS COULD YIELD TO FOG AND
STRATUS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WATERS
KEEPING SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECTING GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILD AGAIN TO AROUND
5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY...COLD FRONT MAY LINGER NEAR THE WATERS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME...WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND GUSTS TO 20 KT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/NMB
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...DUNTEN/NMB
MARINE...DUNTEN/NMB




000
FXUS61 KBOX 280621
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
221 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT A WIDESPREAD/SOAKING RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED. DURING FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS.
FOR THIS WEEKEND...A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY LINGER NEAR OUR
AREA INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

200 AM UPDATE...

EARLY PRECIPITATION HAS FIZZLED OUT LEADING TO DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE REGION. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOP. MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE CT VALLEY AS
PRECIP ADDED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE PROFILE AND WITH DRY AIR
MOVING ALOFT COULD CREATE A SUBTLE INVERSION.

OTHERWISE BULK OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
*** A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
  THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BUT A WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK IS NOT
  EXPECTED ***

THURSDAY...

ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES SHOULD MIX OUT ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION BY LATE MORNING.  THIS A RESULT OF WINDS VEERING AT LEAST A
BIT AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/COLD FRONT.  THE EXCEPTION TO THIS
WILL BE THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE/ISLANDS...WHERE MARINE INFLUENCE MAY
ALLOW LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES TO HANG ON MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE PARTIAL SUNSHINE EMERGE.  MILD START AND WITH
850 MB TEMPS AROUND +15C TO +16C SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH INTO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S NORTHWEST OF BOS TO PVD LINE.  IN FACT...MAY
SEE A FEW LOCATIONS NEAR 90 IN THE MERRIMACK RIVER VALLEY.  TEMPS
WILL BE COOLER SOUTHEAST OF A BOS TO PVD LINE GIVEN THE MARINE
INFLUENCE ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

THE MAIN CONCERN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
CAPES SHOULD INCREASE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/COLD FRONT.  IN ADDITIONAL...0 TO 6
KM SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPENING A LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALLOW SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL
FIRST OCCUR IN THE INTERIOR AND THEN MAKE THEIR WAY TOWARDS THE
COASTAL PLAIN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH THE PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH COLD FRONT.  ENOUGH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR AND 500 MB TEMPS
DROPPING TO AROUND -12C...MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.  WHILE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD/HIGH END
OUTBREAK...A FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN LOCALLY STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN...AS
IT TYPICALLY IS WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY EVENING. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDER EARLY ACROSS EAST AND SOUTH COASTAL AREAS
WITH THE FRONT...THEN PRECIP CHANCES COME TO AN END AND HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP ALONG SOUTH COASTAL MA AND RI.

FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND PASSING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRING
A MAINLY DRY DAY TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A BIT LESS WARM WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S...EXCEPT ONSHORE WINDS KEEP TEMPS LOWER
CLOSE TO THE SHORELINE.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE...ENABLING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO BRING INCREASING MOISTURE/HUMIDITY TOWARDS OUR
AREA. LATE IN THE DAY A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST...EMERGING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND QUEBEC.  WE
COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON
IN WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT...WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
EXTENDING EASTWARD SATURDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO
OUR AREA. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO OVER 1.5 INCHES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY... COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION DURING SUNDAY.
EXPECTING SHOWERS TO CROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY...LOWER CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT MAY REACH THE SOUTH COAST BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE FRONT HANGS
UP IN OUR AREA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE WITH
HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY...THEN CHANCE POPS THRU SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT TRACKS EVEN INTO THIS TIMEFRAME...WHETHER IT STALLS
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OR FURTHER OFFSHORE. THIS WILL AFFECT OUR
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. 00Z ECMWF WAS LEAST PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
FRONT...BUT THE 12Z ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE...NUDGING THE FRONT
SOUTH OF OUR AREA FOR MONDAY EVENING. 12Z GFS HAS OUR AREA MAINLY
DRY ON MONDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY...AND TUESDAY GOING MAINLY DRY...WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS ALONG SOUTH COASTAL LOCALES. THUNDER LOOKS LESS
PROBABLE FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BRINGING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.


BEFORE 12Z...IFR STRATUS AND FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN
SITES THAT SAW PRECIP EARLY TONIGHT AND MARINE STRATUS ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN SITES. THERE IS A LOW PROB THAT VSBYS MAY DROP BELOW
1SM.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANY LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BURN
OFF BY LATE MORNING...EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE/ISLANDS
WHERE MAY LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR BUT A
COLD FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NW TONIGHT. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO START...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VSBYS DUE TO
RADIATION FOG. OTHERWISE VFR FOR TOMORROW WITH SEA BREEZES ALONG
THE MASS COASTLINE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MAY SEE LOWERED VSBYS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE COULD SEE BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS...
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT NIGHT...
WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS LINGER WITH ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

MONDAY...CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT MVFR WITH SCT SHOWERS SOUTH
COASTAL MA/RI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NEAR SHORE SMALL CRAFT WIND
GUSTS DIMINISH AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. HOWEVER...SCA CONTINUE
FOR THE OUTER- WATERS OVERNIGHT FOR MARGINAL 5 FOOT SEAS. AREAS OF
FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...BUT WINDS MAY BE A BIT TOO STRONG FOR
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.

THURSDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANOTHER ROUND OF NEAR SHORE
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  LATER
SHIFTS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO HOIST MORE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO
COVER THIS POTENTIAL.  IN ADDITION...A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY...LIGHT N-NE WINDS BECOME E DURING THE DAY...THEN SHIFT TO S-
SW FRI NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECTING GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILD AGAIN TO AROUND
5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY...COLD FRONT MAY LINGER NEAR THE WATERS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME...WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND GUSTS TO 20 KT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NMB
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...DUNTEN/NMB
MARINE...FRANK/NMB




000
FXUS61 KBOX 280621
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
221 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT A WIDESPREAD/SOAKING RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED. DURING FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS.
FOR THIS WEEKEND...A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY LINGER NEAR OUR
AREA INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

200 AM UPDATE...

EARLY PRECIPITATION HAS FIZZLED OUT LEADING TO DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE REGION. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOP. MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE CT VALLEY AS
PRECIP ADDED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE PROFILE AND WITH DRY AIR
MOVING ALOFT COULD CREATE A SUBTLE INVERSION.

OTHERWISE BULK OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
*** A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
  THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BUT A WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK IS NOT
  EXPECTED ***

THURSDAY...

ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES SHOULD MIX OUT ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION BY LATE MORNING.  THIS A RESULT OF WINDS VEERING AT LEAST A
BIT AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/COLD FRONT.  THE EXCEPTION TO THIS
WILL BE THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE/ISLANDS...WHERE MARINE INFLUENCE MAY
ALLOW LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES TO HANG ON MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE PARTIAL SUNSHINE EMERGE.  MILD START AND WITH
850 MB TEMPS AROUND +15C TO +16C SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH INTO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S NORTHWEST OF BOS TO PVD LINE.  IN FACT...MAY
SEE A FEW LOCATIONS NEAR 90 IN THE MERRIMACK RIVER VALLEY.  TEMPS
WILL BE COOLER SOUTHEAST OF A BOS TO PVD LINE GIVEN THE MARINE
INFLUENCE ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

THE MAIN CONCERN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
CAPES SHOULD INCREASE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/COLD FRONT.  IN ADDITIONAL...0 TO 6
KM SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPENING A LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALLOW SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL
FIRST OCCUR IN THE INTERIOR AND THEN MAKE THEIR WAY TOWARDS THE
COASTAL PLAIN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH THE PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH COLD FRONT.  ENOUGH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR AND 500 MB TEMPS
DROPPING TO AROUND -12C...MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.  WHILE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD/HIGH END
OUTBREAK...A FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN LOCALLY STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN...AS
IT TYPICALLY IS WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY EVENING. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDER EARLY ACROSS EAST AND SOUTH COASTAL AREAS
WITH THE FRONT...THEN PRECIP CHANCES COME TO AN END AND HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP ALONG SOUTH COASTAL MA AND RI.

FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND PASSING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRING
A MAINLY DRY DAY TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A BIT LESS WARM WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S...EXCEPT ONSHORE WINDS KEEP TEMPS LOWER
CLOSE TO THE SHORELINE.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE...ENABLING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO BRING INCREASING MOISTURE/HUMIDITY TOWARDS OUR
AREA. LATE IN THE DAY A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST...EMERGING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND QUEBEC.  WE
COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON
IN WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT...WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
EXTENDING EASTWARD SATURDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO
OUR AREA. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO OVER 1.5 INCHES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY... COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION DURING SUNDAY.
EXPECTING SHOWERS TO CROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY...LOWER CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT MAY REACH THE SOUTH COAST BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE FRONT HANGS
UP IN OUR AREA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE WITH
HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY...THEN CHANCE POPS THRU SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT TRACKS EVEN INTO THIS TIMEFRAME...WHETHER IT STALLS
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OR FURTHER OFFSHORE. THIS WILL AFFECT OUR
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. 00Z ECMWF WAS LEAST PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
FRONT...BUT THE 12Z ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE...NUDGING THE FRONT
SOUTH OF OUR AREA FOR MONDAY EVENING. 12Z GFS HAS OUR AREA MAINLY
DRY ON MONDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY...AND TUESDAY GOING MAINLY DRY...WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS ALONG SOUTH COASTAL LOCALES. THUNDER LOOKS LESS
PROBABLE FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BRINGING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.


BEFORE 12Z...IFR STRATUS AND FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN
SITES THAT SAW PRECIP EARLY TONIGHT AND MARINE STRATUS ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN SITES. THERE IS A LOW PROB THAT VSBYS MAY DROP BELOW
1SM.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANY LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BURN
OFF BY LATE MORNING...EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE/ISLANDS
WHERE MAY LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR BUT A
COLD FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NW TONIGHT. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO START...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VSBYS DUE TO
RADIATION FOG. OTHERWISE VFR FOR TOMORROW WITH SEA BREEZES ALONG
THE MASS COASTLINE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MAY SEE LOWERED VSBYS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE COULD SEE BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS...
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT NIGHT...
WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS LINGER WITH ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

MONDAY...CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT MVFR WITH SCT SHOWERS SOUTH
COASTAL MA/RI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NEAR SHORE SMALL CRAFT WIND
GUSTS DIMINISH AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. HOWEVER...SCA CONTINUE
FOR THE OUTER- WATERS OVERNIGHT FOR MARGINAL 5 FOOT SEAS. AREAS OF
FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...BUT WINDS MAY BE A BIT TOO STRONG FOR
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.

THURSDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANOTHER ROUND OF NEAR SHORE
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  LATER
SHIFTS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO HOIST MORE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO
COVER THIS POTENTIAL.  IN ADDITION...A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY...LIGHT N-NE WINDS BECOME E DURING THE DAY...THEN SHIFT TO S-
SW FRI NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECTING GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILD AGAIN TO AROUND
5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY...COLD FRONT MAY LINGER NEAR THE WATERS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME...WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND GUSTS TO 20 KT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NMB
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...DUNTEN/NMB
MARINE...FRANK/NMB




000
FXUS61 KBOX 280621
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
221 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT A WIDESPREAD/SOAKING RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED. DURING FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS.
FOR THIS WEEKEND...A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY LINGER NEAR OUR
AREA INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

200 AM UPDATE...

EARLY PRECIPITATION HAS FIZZLED OUT LEADING TO DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE REGION. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOP. MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE CT VALLEY AS
PRECIP ADDED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE PROFILE AND WITH DRY AIR
MOVING ALOFT COULD CREATE A SUBTLE INVERSION.

OTHERWISE BULK OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
*** A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
  THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BUT A WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK IS NOT
  EXPECTED ***

THURSDAY...

ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES SHOULD MIX OUT ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION BY LATE MORNING.  THIS A RESULT OF WINDS VEERING AT LEAST A
BIT AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/COLD FRONT.  THE EXCEPTION TO THIS
WILL BE THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE/ISLANDS...WHERE MARINE INFLUENCE MAY
ALLOW LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES TO HANG ON MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE PARTIAL SUNSHINE EMERGE.  MILD START AND WITH
850 MB TEMPS AROUND +15C TO +16C SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH INTO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S NORTHWEST OF BOS TO PVD LINE.  IN FACT...MAY
SEE A FEW LOCATIONS NEAR 90 IN THE MERRIMACK RIVER VALLEY.  TEMPS
WILL BE COOLER SOUTHEAST OF A BOS TO PVD LINE GIVEN THE MARINE
INFLUENCE ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

THE MAIN CONCERN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
CAPES SHOULD INCREASE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/COLD FRONT.  IN ADDITIONAL...0 TO 6
KM SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPENING A LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALLOW SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL
FIRST OCCUR IN THE INTERIOR AND THEN MAKE THEIR WAY TOWARDS THE
COASTAL PLAIN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH THE PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH COLD FRONT.  ENOUGH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR AND 500 MB TEMPS
DROPPING TO AROUND -12C...MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.  WHILE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD/HIGH END
OUTBREAK...A FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN LOCALLY STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN...AS
IT TYPICALLY IS WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY EVENING. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDER EARLY ACROSS EAST AND SOUTH COASTAL AREAS
WITH THE FRONT...THEN PRECIP CHANCES COME TO AN END AND HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP ALONG SOUTH COASTAL MA AND RI.

FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND PASSING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRING
A MAINLY DRY DAY TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A BIT LESS WARM WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S...EXCEPT ONSHORE WINDS KEEP TEMPS LOWER
CLOSE TO THE SHORELINE.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE...ENABLING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO BRING INCREASING MOISTURE/HUMIDITY TOWARDS OUR
AREA. LATE IN THE DAY A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST...EMERGING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND QUEBEC.  WE
COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON
IN WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT...WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
EXTENDING EASTWARD SATURDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO
OUR AREA. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO OVER 1.5 INCHES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY... COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION DURING SUNDAY.
EXPECTING SHOWERS TO CROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY...LOWER CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT MAY REACH THE SOUTH COAST BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE FRONT HANGS
UP IN OUR AREA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE WITH
HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY...THEN CHANCE POPS THRU SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT TRACKS EVEN INTO THIS TIMEFRAME...WHETHER IT STALLS
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OR FURTHER OFFSHORE. THIS WILL AFFECT OUR
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. 00Z ECMWF WAS LEAST PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
FRONT...BUT THE 12Z ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE...NUDGING THE FRONT
SOUTH OF OUR AREA FOR MONDAY EVENING. 12Z GFS HAS OUR AREA MAINLY
DRY ON MONDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY...AND TUESDAY GOING MAINLY DRY...WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS ALONG SOUTH COASTAL LOCALES. THUNDER LOOKS LESS
PROBABLE FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BRINGING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.


BEFORE 12Z...IFR STRATUS AND FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN
SITES THAT SAW PRECIP EARLY TONIGHT AND MARINE STRATUS ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN SITES. THERE IS A LOW PROB THAT VSBYS MAY DROP BELOW
1SM.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANY LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BURN
OFF BY LATE MORNING...EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE/ISLANDS
WHERE MAY LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR BUT A
COLD FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NW TONIGHT. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO START...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VSBYS DUE TO
RADIATION FOG. OTHERWISE VFR FOR TOMORROW WITH SEA BREEZES ALONG
THE MASS COASTLINE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MAY SEE LOWERED VSBYS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE COULD SEE BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS...
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT NIGHT...
WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS LINGER WITH ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

MONDAY...CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT MVFR WITH SCT SHOWERS SOUTH
COASTAL MA/RI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NEAR SHORE SMALL CRAFT WIND
GUSTS DIMINISH AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. HOWEVER...SCA CONTINUE
FOR THE OUTER- WATERS OVERNIGHT FOR MARGINAL 5 FOOT SEAS. AREAS OF
FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...BUT WINDS MAY BE A BIT TOO STRONG FOR
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.

THURSDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANOTHER ROUND OF NEAR SHORE
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  LATER
SHIFTS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO HOIST MORE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO
COVER THIS POTENTIAL.  IN ADDITION...A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY...LIGHT N-NE WINDS BECOME E DURING THE DAY...THEN SHIFT TO S-
SW FRI NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECTING GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILD AGAIN TO AROUND
5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY...COLD FRONT MAY LINGER NEAR THE WATERS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME...WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND GUSTS TO 20 KT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NMB
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...DUNTEN/NMB
MARINE...FRANK/NMB




000
FXUS61 KBOX 280621
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
221 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT A WIDESPREAD/SOAKING RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED. DURING FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS.
FOR THIS WEEKEND...A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY LINGER NEAR OUR
AREA INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

200 AM UPDATE...

EARLY PRECIPITATION HAS FIZZLED OUT LEADING TO DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE REGION. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOP. MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE CT VALLEY AS
PRECIP ADDED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE PROFILE AND WITH DRY AIR
MOVING ALOFT COULD CREATE A SUBTLE INVERSION.

OTHERWISE BULK OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
*** A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
  THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BUT A WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK IS NOT
  EXPECTED ***

THURSDAY...

ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES SHOULD MIX OUT ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION BY LATE MORNING.  THIS A RESULT OF WINDS VEERING AT LEAST A
BIT AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/COLD FRONT.  THE EXCEPTION TO THIS
WILL BE THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE/ISLANDS...WHERE MARINE INFLUENCE MAY
ALLOW LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES TO HANG ON MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE PARTIAL SUNSHINE EMERGE.  MILD START AND WITH
850 MB TEMPS AROUND +15C TO +16C SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH INTO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S NORTHWEST OF BOS TO PVD LINE.  IN FACT...MAY
SEE A FEW LOCATIONS NEAR 90 IN THE MERRIMACK RIVER VALLEY.  TEMPS
WILL BE COOLER SOUTHEAST OF A BOS TO PVD LINE GIVEN THE MARINE
INFLUENCE ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

THE MAIN CONCERN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
CAPES SHOULD INCREASE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/COLD FRONT.  IN ADDITIONAL...0 TO 6
KM SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPENING A LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALLOW SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL
FIRST OCCUR IN THE INTERIOR AND THEN MAKE THEIR WAY TOWARDS THE
COASTAL PLAIN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH THE PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH COLD FRONT.  ENOUGH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR AND 500 MB TEMPS
DROPPING TO AROUND -12C...MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.  WHILE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD/HIGH END
OUTBREAK...A FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN LOCALLY STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN...AS
IT TYPICALLY IS WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY EVENING. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDER EARLY ACROSS EAST AND SOUTH COASTAL AREAS
WITH THE FRONT...THEN PRECIP CHANCES COME TO AN END AND HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP ALONG SOUTH COASTAL MA AND RI.

FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND PASSING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRING
A MAINLY DRY DAY TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A BIT LESS WARM WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S...EXCEPT ONSHORE WINDS KEEP TEMPS LOWER
CLOSE TO THE SHORELINE.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE...ENABLING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO BRING INCREASING MOISTURE/HUMIDITY TOWARDS OUR
AREA. LATE IN THE DAY A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST...EMERGING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND QUEBEC.  WE
COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON
IN WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT...WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
EXTENDING EASTWARD SATURDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO
OUR AREA. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO OVER 1.5 INCHES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY... COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION DURING SUNDAY.
EXPECTING SHOWERS TO CROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY...LOWER CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT MAY REACH THE SOUTH COAST BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE FRONT HANGS
UP IN OUR AREA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE WITH
HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY...THEN CHANCE POPS THRU SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT TRACKS EVEN INTO THIS TIMEFRAME...WHETHER IT STALLS
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OR FURTHER OFFSHORE. THIS WILL AFFECT OUR
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. 00Z ECMWF WAS LEAST PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
FRONT...BUT THE 12Z ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE...NUDGING THE FRONT
SOUTH OF OUR AREA FOR MONDAY EVENING. 12Z GFS HAS OUR AREA MAINLY
DRY ON MONDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY...AND TUESDAY GOING MAINLY DRY...WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS ALONG SOUTH COASTAL LOCALES. THUNDER LOOKS LESS
PROBABLE FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BRINGING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.


BEFORE 12Z...IFR STRATUS AND FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN
SITES THAT SAW PRECIP EARLY TONIGHT AND MARINE STRATUS ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN SITES. THERE IS A LOW PROB THAT VSBYS MAY DROP BELOW
1SM.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANY LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BURN
OFF BY LATE MORNING...EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE/ISLANDS
WHERE MAY LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR BUT A
COLD FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NW TONIGHT. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO START...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VSBYS DUE TO
RADIATION FOG. OTHERWISE VFR FOR TOMORROW WITH SEA BREEZES ALONG
THE MASS COASTLINE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MAY SEE LOWERED VSBYS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE COULD SEE BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS...
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT NIGHT...
WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS LINGER WITH ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

MONDAY...CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT MVFR WITH SCT SHOWERS SOUTH
COASTAL MA/RI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NEAR SHORE SMALL CRAFT WIND
GUSTS DIMINISH AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. HOWEVER...SCA CONTINUE
FOR THE OUTER- WATERS OVERNIGHT FOR MARGINAL 5 FOOT SEAS. AREAS OF
FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...BUT WINDS MAY BE A BIT TOO STRONG FOR
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.

THURSDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANOTHER ROUND OF NEAR SHORE
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  LATER
SHIFTS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO HOIST MORE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO
COVER THIS POTENTIAL.  IN ADDITION...A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY...LIGHT N-NE WINDS BECOME E DURING THE DAY...THEN SHIFT TO S-
SW FRI NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECTING GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILD AGAIN TO AROUND
5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY...COLD FRONT MAY LINGER NEAR THE WATERS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME...WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND GUSTS TO 20 KT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NMB
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...DUNTEN/NMB
MARINE...FRANK/NMB




000
FXUS61 KBOX 280621
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
221 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT A WIDESPREAD/SOAKING RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED. DURING FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS.
FOR THIS WEEKEND...A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY LINGER NEAR OUR
AREA INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

200 AM UPDATE...

EARLY PRECIPITATION HAS FIZZLED OUT LEADING TO DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE REGION. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOP. MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE CT VALLEY AS
PRECIP ADDED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE PROFILE AND WITH DRY AIR
MOVING ALOFT COULD CREATE A SUBTLE INVERSION.

OTHERWISE BULK OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
*** A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
  THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BUT A WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK IS NOT
  EXPECTED ***

THURSDAY...

ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES SHOULD MIX OUT ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION BY LATE MORNING.  THIS A RESULT OF WINDS VEERING AT LEAST A
BIT AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/COLD FRONT.  THE EXCEPTION TO THIS
WILL BE THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE/ISLANDS...WHERE MARINE INFLUENCE MAY
ALLOW LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES TO HANG ON MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE PARTIAL SUNSHINE EMERGE.  MILD START AND WITH
850 MB TEMPS AROUND +15C TO +16C SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH INTO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S NORTHWEST OF BOS TO PVD LINE.  IN FACT...MAY
SEE A FEW LOCATIONS NEAR 90 IN THE MERRIMACK RIVER VALLEY.  TEMPS
WILL BE COOLER SOUTHEAST OF A BOS TO PVD LINE GIVEN THE MARINE
INFLUENCE ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

THE MAIN CONCERN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
CAPES SHOULD INCREASE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/COLD FRONT.  IN ADDITIONAL...0 TO 6
KM SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPENING A LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALLOW SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL
FIRST OCCUR IN THE INTERIOR AND THEN MAKE THEIR WAY TOWARDS THE
COASTAL PLAIN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH THE PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH COLD FRONT.  ENOUGH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR AND 500 MB TEMPS
DROPPING TO AROUND -12C...MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.  WHILE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD/HIGH END
OUTBREAK...A FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN LOCALLY STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN...AS
IT TYPICALLY IS WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY EVENING. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDER EARLY ACROSS EAST AND SOUTH COASTAL AREAS
WITH THE FRONT...THEN PRECIP CHANCES COME TO AN END AND HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP ALONG SOUTH COASTAL MA AND RI.

FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND PASSING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRING
A MAINLY DRY DAY TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A BIT LESS WARM WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S...EXCEPT ONSHORE WINDS KEEP TEMPS LOWER
CLOSE TO THE SHORELINE.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE...ENABLING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO BRING INCREASING MOISTURE/HUMIDITY TOWARDS OUR
AREA. LATE IN THE DAY A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST...EMERGING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND QUEBEC.  WE
COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON
IN WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT...WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
EXTENDING EASTWARD SATURDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO
OUR AREA. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO OVER 1.5 INCHES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY... COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION DURING SUNDAY.
EXPECTING SHOWERS TO CROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY...LOWER CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT MAY REACH THE SOUTH COAST BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE FRONT HANGS
UP IN OUR AREA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE WITH
HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY...THEN CHANCE POPS THRU SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT TRACKS EVEN INTO THIS TIMEFRAME...WHETHER IT STALLS
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OR FURTHER OFFSHORE. THIS WILL AFFECT OUR
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. 00Z ECMWF WAS LEAST PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
FRONT...BUT THE 12Z ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE...NUDGING THE FRONT
SOUTH OF OUR AREA FOR MONDAY EVENING. 12Z GFS HAS OUR AREA MAINLY
DRY ON MONDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY...AND TUESDAY GOING MAINLY DRY...WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS ALONG SOUTH COASTAL LOCALES. THUNDER LOOKS LESS
PROBABLE FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BRINGING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.


BEFORE 12Z...IFR STRATUS AND FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN
SITES THAT SAW PRECIP EARLY TONIGHT AND MARINE STRATUS ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN SITES. THERE IS A LOW PROB THAT VSBYS MAY DROP BELOW
1SM.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANY LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BURN
OFF BY LATE MORNING...EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE/ISLANDS
WHERE MAY LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR BUT A
COLD FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NW TONIGHT. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO START...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VSBYS DUE TO
RADIATION FOG. OTHERWISE VFR FOR TOMORROW WITH SEA BREEZES ALONG
THE MASS COASTLINE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MAY SEE LOWERED VSBYS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE COULD SEE BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS...
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT NIGHT...
WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS LINGER WITH ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

MONDAY...CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT MVFR WITH SCT SHOWERS SOUTH
COASTAL MA/RI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NEAR SHORE SMALL CRAFT WIND
GUSTS DIMINISH AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. HOWEVER...SCA CONTINUE
FOR THE OUTER- WATERS OVERNIGHT FOR MARGINAL 5 FOOT SEAS. AREAS OF
FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...BUT WINDS MAY BE A BIT TOO STRONG FOR
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.

THURSDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANOTHER ROUND OF NEAR SHORE
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  LATER
SHIFTS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO HOIST MORE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO
COVER THIS POTENTIAL.  IN ADDITION...A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY...LIGHT N-NE WINDS BECOME E DURING THE DAY...THEN SHIFT TO S-
SW FRI NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECTING GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILD AGAIN TO AROUND
5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY...COLD FRONT MAY LINGER NEAR THE WATERS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME...WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND GUSTS TO 20 KT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NMB
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...DUNTEN/NMB
MARINE...FRANK/NMB



000
FXUS61 KBOX 280621
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
221 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT A WIDESPREAD/SOAKING RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED. DURING FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS.
FOR THIS WEEKEND...A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY LINGER NEAR OUR
AREA INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

200 AM UPDATE...

EARLY PRECIPITATION HAS FIZZLED OUT LEADING TO DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE REGION. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOP. MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE CT VALLEY AS
PRECIP ADDED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE PROFILE AND WITH DRY AIR
MOVING ALOFT COULD CREATE A SUBTLE INVERSION.

OTHERWISE BULK OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
*** A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
  THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BUT A WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK IS NOT
  EXPECTED ***

THURSDAY...

ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES SHOULD MIX OUT ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION BY LATE MORNING.  THIS A RESULT OF WINDS VEERING AT LEAST A
BIT AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/COLD FRONT.  THE EXCEPTION TO THIS
WILL BE THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE/ISLANDS...WHERE MARINE INFLUENCE MAY
ALLOW LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES TO HANG ON MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE PARTIAL SUNSHINE EMERGE.  MILD START AND WITH
850 MB TEMPS AROUND +15C TO +16C SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH INTO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S NORTHWEST OF BOS TO PVD LINE.  IN FACT...MAY
SEE A FEW LOCATIONS NEAR 90 IN THE MERRIMACK RIVER VALLEY.  TEMPS
WILL BE COOLER SOUTHEAST OF A BOS TO PVD LINE GIVEN THE MARINE
INFLUENCE ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

THE MAIN CONCERN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
CAPES SHOULD INCREASE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/COLD FRONT.  IN ADDITIONAL...0 TO 6
KM SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPENING A LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALLOW SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL
FIRST OCCUR IN THE INTERIOR AND THEN MAKE THEIR WAY TOWARDS THE
COASTAL PLAIN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH THE PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH COLD FRONT.  ENOUGH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR AND 500 MB TEMPS
DROPPING TO AROUND -12C...MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.  WHILE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD/HIGH END
OUTBREAK...A FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN LOCALLY STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN...AS
IT TYPICALLY IS WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY EVENING. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDER EARLY ACROSS EAST AND SOUTH COASTAL AREAS
WITH THE FRONT...THEN PRECIP CHANCES COME TO AN END AND HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP ALONG SOUTH COASTAL MA AND RI.

FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND PASSING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRING
A MAINLY DRY DAY TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A BIT LESS WARM WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S...EXCEPT ONSHORE WINDS KEEP TEMPS LOWER
CLOSE TO THE SHORELINE.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE...ENABLING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO BRING INCREASING MOISTURE/HUMIDITY TOWARDS OUR
AREA. LATE IN THE DAY A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST...EMERGING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND QUEBEC.  WE
COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON
IN WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT...WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
EXTENDING EASTWARD SATURDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO
OUR AREA. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO OVER 1.5 INCHES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY... COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION DURING SUNDAY.
EXPECTING SHOWERS TO CROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY...LOWER CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT MAY REACH THE SOUTH COAST BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE FRONT HANGS
UP IN OUR AREA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE WITH
HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY...THEN CHANCE POPS THRU SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT TRACKS EVEN INTO THIS TIMEFRAME...WHETHER IT STALLS
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OR FURTHER OFFSHORE. THIS WILL AFFECT OUR
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. 00Z ECMWF WAS LEAST PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
FRONT...BUT THE 12Z ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE...NUDGING THE FRONT
SOUTH OF OUR AREA FOR MONDAY EVENING. 12Z GFS HAS OUR AREA MAINLY
DRY ON MONDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY...AND TUESDAY GOING MAINLY DRY...WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS ALONG SOUTH COASTAL LOCALES. THUNDER LOOKS LESS
PROBABLE FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BRINGING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.


BEFORE 12Z...IFR STRATUS AND FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN
SITES THAT SAW PRECIP EARLY TONIGHT AND MARINE STRATUS ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN SITES. THERE IS A LOW PROB THAT VSBYS MAY DROP BELOW
1SM.

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANY LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BURN
OFF BY LATE MORNING...EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE/ISLANDS
WHERE MAY LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR BUT A
COLD FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NW TONIGHT. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO START...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VSBYS DUE TO
RADIATION FOG. OTHERWISE VFR FOR TOMORROW WITH SEA BREEZES ALONG
THE MASS COASTLINE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MAY SEE LOWERED VSBYS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE COULD SEE BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS...
WILL IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT NIGHT...
WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS LINGER WITH ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

MONDAY...CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT MVFR WITH SCT SHOWERS SOUTH
COASTAL MA/RI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NEAR SHORE SMALL CRAFT WIND
GUSTS DIMINISH AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. HOWEVER...SCA CONTINUE
FOR THE OUTER- WATERS OVERNIGHT FOR MARGINAL 5 FOOT SEAS. AREAS OF
FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...BUT WINDS MAY BE A BIT TOO STRONG FOR
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.

THURSDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANOTHER ROUND OF NEAR SHORE
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  LATER
SHIFTS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO HOIST MORE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO
COVER THIS POTENTIAL.  IN ADDITION...A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY...LIGHT N-NE WINDS BECOME E DURING THE DAY...THEN SHIFT TO S-
SW FRI NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECTING GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILD AGAIN TO AROUND
5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY...COLD FRONT MAY LINGER NEAR THE WATERS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME...WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND GUSTS TO 20 KT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NMB
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...DUNTEN/NMB
MARINE...FRANK/NMB




000
FXUS61 KBOX 280205
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1005 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT A WIDESPREAD/SOAKING RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED. DURING FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS.
FOR THIS WEEKEND...A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY LINGER NEAR OUR
AREA INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

1000 PM UPDATE...

PRECIPITATION IS DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES EASTWARD THANKS TO MID-
LEVEL DRY AIR PER 00Z SOUNDING OUT OF CHH. K INDEX ALSO DROPS OFF
SIGNIFICANTLY SO ANTICIPATE THAT RI AND LOCATIONS ACROSS METROWEST
POINTS EASTWARD WILL REMAIN DRY. ANY PRECIP TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT
AND DROP PERHAPS A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. CONVECTIVE CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE LATE
TONIGHT. MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE CT VALLEY AS
PRECIP ADDED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE PROFILE AND WITH DRY AIR
MOVING ALOFT COULD CREATE A SUBTLE INVERSION.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...SHOULD SEE LOW CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT BUT
AREAL COVERAGE IS VERY UNCERTAIN WITH HIGHEST RISK ACROSS SOUTH OF
MA PIKE. WINDS DO NOT TOTALLY DECOUPLE IN MOST LOCATIONS...SO
WHILE SOME FOG PATCHES ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SOUTH
COAST ITS EXTENT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SOME DEGREE. LOW TEMPS WILL
NOT DROP BELOW 65 DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS AS A RESULT OF
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
*** A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
  THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BUT A WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK IS NOT
  EXPECTED ***

THURSDAY...

ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES SHOULD MIX OUT ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION BY LATE MORNING.  THIS A RESULT OF WINDS VEERING AT LEAST A
BIT AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/COLD FRONT.  THE EXCEPTION TO THIS
WILL BE THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE/ISLANDS...WHERE MARINE INFLUENCE MAY
ALLOW LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES TO HANG ON MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE PARTIAL SUNSHINE EMERGE.  MILD START AND WITH
850 MB TEMPS AROUND +15C TO +16C SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH INTO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S NORTHWEST OF BOS TO PVD LINE.  IN FACT...MAY
SEE A FEW LOCATIONS NEAR 90 IN THE MERRIMACK RIVER VALLEY.  TEMPS
WILL BE COOLER SOUTHEAST OF A BOS TO PVD LINE GIVEN THE MARINE
INFLUENCE ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

THE MAIN CONCERN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
CAPES SHOULD INCREASE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/COLD FRONT.  IN ADDITIONAL...0 TO 6
KM SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPENING A LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALLOW SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL
FIRST OCCUR IN THE INTERIOR AND THEN MAKE THEIR WAY TOWARDS THE
COASTAL PLAIN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH THE PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH COLD FRONT.  ENOUGH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR AND 500 MB TEMPS
DROPPING TO AROUND -12C...MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.  WHILE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD/HIGH END
OUTBREAK...A FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN LOCALLY STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN...AS
IT TYPICALLY IS WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY EVENING. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDER EARLY ACROSS EAST AND SOUTH COASTAL AREAS
WITH THE FRONT...THEN PRECIP CHANCES COME TO AN END AND HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP ALONG SOUTH COASTAL MA AND RI.

FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND PASSING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRING
A MAINLY DRY DAY TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A BIT LESS WARM WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S...EXCEPT ONSHORE WINDS KEEP TEMPS LOWER
CLOSE TO THE SHORELINE.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE...ENABLING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO BRING INCREASING MOISTURE/HUMIDITY TOWARDS OUR
AREA. LATE IN THE DAY A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST...EMERGING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND QUEBEC.  WE
COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON
IN WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT...WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
EXTENDING EASTWARD SATURDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO
OUR AREA. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO OVER 1.5 INCHES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY... COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION DURING SUNDAY.
EXPECTING SHOWERS TO CROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY...LOWER CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT MAY REACH THE SOUTH COAST BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE FRONT HANGS
UP IN OUR AREA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE WITH
HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY...THEN CHANCE POPS THRU SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT TRACKS EVEN INTO THIS TIMEFRAME...WHETHER IT STALLS
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OR FURTHER OFFSHORE. THIS WILL AFFECT OUR
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. 00Z ECMWF WAS LEAST PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
FRONT...BUT THE 12Z ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE...NUDGING THE FRONT
SOUTH OF OUR AREA FOR MONDAY EVENING. 12Z GFS HAS OUR AREA MAINLY
DRY ON MONDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY...AND TUESDAY GOING MAINLY DRY...WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS ALONG SOUTH COASTAL LOCALES. THUNDER LOOKS LESS
PROBABLE FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BRINGING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THIS EVENING...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MIX OF VFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR THIS EVENING...WITH THE LOWER CIGS/VSBYS OVER THE
INTERIOR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...AND MVFR
CIGS SOUTH COASTAL MA AND RI IN STRATUS.

TONIGHT...LOW CLOUDS SHOULD ADVANCE FURTHER NORTH TONIGHT..BUT HOW
FAR NORTH THE LOW CLOUDS GET AND THEIR EXTENT REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
CIGS SHOULD BECOMING MAINLY MVFR...EXCEPT IFR SOUTH COASTAL MA
AND RI. WINDS PROBABLY DO NOT COMPLETELY DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT IN
MOST LOCATIONS...SO EXTENT OF FOG MAY BE LIMITED BUT SOME STILL
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG AREAS OF THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE/ISLANDS.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANY LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES
SHOULD BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING...EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTH
COAST/CAPE/ISLANDS WHERE MAY HANG TOUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...VFR BUT A COLD FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MAY BRING A
FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN BRIEFLY
LOWER CONDITIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...CONFIDENCE IN TAF DETERIORATES LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT.  VFR INTO THIS EVENING.  LOW CONFIDENCE IF IFR OR LOW
END MVFR CIGS CAN MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS THE BOS TERMINAL.

KBDL TERMINAL...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THRU BDL THRU 02Z OR SO WILL
PRODUCE VARIABLE CIGS/VSBYS. OTHERWISE...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
PROBABLE LATE THIS EVENING...UNTIL LOWER CIGS MAY INVADE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY...VFR. MAY SEE LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EARLY MORNING ALONG
S COAST IN PATCHY FOG...THEN MAY LOWER AGAIN LATE FRI NIGHT TO MVFR-
IFR.

SATURDAY...PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS... WILL
IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT NIGHT... WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS LINGER WITH ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

MONDAY...CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT MVFR WITH SCT SHOWERS SOUTH
COASTAL MA/RI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NEAR SHORE SMALL CRAFT WIND
GUSTS DIMINISH AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. HOWEVER...SCA CONTINUE
FOR THE OUTER- WATERS OVERNIGHT FOR MARGINAL 5 FOOT SEAS. AREAS OF
FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...BUT WINDS MAY BE A BIT TOO STRONG FOR
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.

THURSDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANOTHER ROUND OF NEAR SHORE
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  LATER
SHIFTS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO HOIST MORE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO
COVER THIS POTENTIAL.  IN ADDITION...A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY...LIGHT N-NE WINDS BECOME E DURING THE DAY...THEN SHIFT TO S-
SW FRI NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECTING GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILD AGAIN TO AROUND
5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY...COLD FRONT MAY LINGER NEAR THE WATERS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME...WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND GUSTS TO 20 KT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NMB
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...FRANK/NMB
MARINE...FRANK/NMB



000
FXUS61 KBOX 280205
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1005 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT A WIDESPREAD/SOAKING RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED. DURING FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS.
FOR THIS WEEKEND...A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY LINGER NEAR OUR
AREA INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

1000 PM UPDATE...

PRECIPITATION IS DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES EASTWARD THANKS TO MID-
LEVEL DRY AIR PER 00Z SOUNDING OUT OF CHH. K INDEX ALSO DROPS OFF
SIGNIFICANTLY SO ANTICIPATE THAT RI AND LOCATIONS ACROSS METROWEST
POINTS EASTWARD WILL REMAIN DRY. ANY PRECIP TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT
AND DROP PERHAPS A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. CONVECTIVE CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE LATE
TONIGHT. MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE CT VALLEY AS
PRECIP ADDED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE PROFILE AND WITH DRY AIR
MOVING ALOFT COULD CREATE A SUBTLE INVERSION.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...SHOULD SEE LOW CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT BUT
AREAL COVERAGE IS VERY UNCERTAIN WITH HIGHEST RISK ACROSS SOUTH OF
MA PIKE. WINDS DO NOT TOTALLY DECOUPLE IN MOST LOCATIONS...SO
WHILE SOME FOG PATCHES ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SOUTH
COAST ITS EXTENT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SOME DEGREE. LOW TEMPS WILL
NOT DROP BELOW 65 DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS AS A RESULT OF
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
*** A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
  THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BUT A WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK IS NOT
  EXPECTED ***

THURSDAY...

ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES SHOULD MIX OUT ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION BY LATE MORNING.  THIS A RESULT OF WINDS VEERING AT LEAST A
BIT AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/COLD FRONT.  THE EXCEPTION TO THIS
WILL BE THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE/ISLANDS...WHERE MARINE INFLUENCE MAY
ALLOW LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES TO HANG ON MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE PARTIAL SUNSHINE EMERGE.  MILD START AND WITH
850 MB TEMPS AROUND +15C TO +16C SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH INTO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S NORTHWEST OF BOS TO PVD LINE.  IN FACT...MAY
SEE A FEW LOCATIONS NEAR 90 IN THE MERRIMACK RIVER VALLEY.  TEMPS
WILL BE COOLER SOUTHEAST OF A BOS TO PVD LINE GIVEN THE MARINE
INFLUENCE ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

THE MAIN CONCERN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
CAPES SHOULD INCREASE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/COLD FRONT.  IN ADDITIONAL...0 TO 6
KM SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPENING A LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALLOW SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL
FIRST OCCUR IN THE INTERIOR AND THEN MAKE THEIR WAY TOWARDS THE
COASTAL PLAIN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH THE PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH COLD FRONT.  ENOUGH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR AND 500 MB TEMPS
DROPPING TO AROUND -12C...MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.  WHILE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD/HIGH END
OUTBREAK...A FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN LOCALLY STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN...AS
IT TYPICALLY IS WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY EVENING. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDER EARLY ACROSS EAST AND SOUTH COASTAL AREAS
WITH THE FRONT...THEN PRECIP CHANCES COME TO AN END AND HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP ALONG SOUTH COASTAL MA AND RI.

FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND PASSING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRING
A MAINLY DRY DAY TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A BIT LESS WARM WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S...EXCEPT ONSHORE WINDS KEEP TEMPS LOWER
CLOSE TO THE SHORELINE.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE...ENABLING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO BRING INCREASING MOISTURE/HUMIDITY TOWARDS OUR
AREA. LATE IN THE DAY A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST...EMERGING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND QUEBEC.  WE
COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON
IN WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT...WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
EXTENDING EASTWARD SATURDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO
OUR AREA. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO OVER 1.5 INCHES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY... COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION DURING SUNDAY.
EXPECTING SHOWERS TO CROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY...LOWER CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT MAY REACH THE SOUTH COAST BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE FRONT HANGS
UP IN OUR AREA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE WITH
HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY...THEN CHANCE POPS THRU SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT TRACKS EVEN INTO THIS TIMEFRAME...WHETHER IT STALLS
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OR FURTHER OFFSHORE. THIS WILL AFFECT OUR
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. 00Z ECMWF WAS LEAST PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
FRONT...BUT THE 12Z ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE...NUDGING THE FRONT
SOUTH OF OUR AREA FOR MONDAY EVENING. 12Z GFS HAS OUR AREA MAINLY
DRY ON MONDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY...AND TUESDAY GOING MAINLY DRY...WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS ALONG SOUTH COASTAL LOCALES. THUNDER LOOKS LESS
PROBABLE FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BRINGING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THIS EVENING...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MIX OF VFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR THIS EVENING...WITH THE LOWER CIGS/VSBYS OVER THE
INTERIOR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...AND MVFR
CIGS SOUTH COASTAL MA AND RI IN STRATUS.

TONIGHT...LOW CLOUDS SHOULD ADVANCE FURTHER NORTH TONIGHT..BUT HOW
FAR NORTH THE LOW CLOUDS GET AND THEIR EXTENT REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
CIGS SHOULD BECOMING MAINLY MVFR...EXCEPT IFR SOUTH COASTAL MA
AND RI. WINDS PROBABLY DO NOT COMPLETELY DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT IN
MOST LOCATIONS...SO EXTENT OF FOG MAY BE LIMITED BUT SOME STILL
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG AREAS OF THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE/ISLANDS.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANY LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES
SHOULD BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING...EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTH
COAST/CAPE/ISLANDS WHERE MAY HANG TOUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...VFR BUT A COLD FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MAY BRING A
FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN BRIEFLY
LOWER CONDITIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...CONFIDENCE IN TAF DETERIORATES LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT.  VFR INTO THIS EVENING.  LOW CONFIDENCE IF IFR OR LOW
END MVFR CIGS CAN MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS THE BOS TERMINAL.

KBDL TERMINAL...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THRU BDL THRU 02Z OR SO WILL
PRODUCE VARIABLE CIGS/VSBYS. OTHERWISE...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
PROBABLE LATE THIS EVENING...UNTIL LOWER CIGS MAY INVADE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY...VFR. MAY SEE LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EARLY MORNING ALONG
S COAST IN PATCHY FOG...THEN MAY LOWER AGAIN LATE FRI NIGHT TO MVFR-
IFR.

SATURDAY...PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS... WILL
IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT NIGHT... WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS LINGER WITH ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

MONDAY...CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT MVFR WITH SCT SHOWERS SOUTH
COASTAL MA/RI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NEAR SHORE SMALL CRAFT WIND
GUSTS DIMINISH AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. HOWEVER...SCA CONTINUE
FOR THE OUTER- WATERS OVERNIGHT FOR MARGINAL 5 FOOT SEAS. AREAS OF
FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...BUT WINDS MAY BE A BIT TOO STRONG FOR
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.

THURSDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANOTHER ROUND OF NEAR SHORE
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  LATER
SHIFTS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO HOIST MORE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO
COVER THIS POTENTIAL.  IN ADDITION...A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY...LIGHT N-NE WINDS BECOME E DURING THE DAY...THEN SHIFT TO S-
SW FRI NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECTING GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILD AGAIN TO AROUND
5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY...COLD FRONT MAY LINGER NEAR THE WATERS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME...WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND GUSTS TO 20 KT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NMB
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...FRANK/NMB
MARINE...FRANK/NMB



000
FXUS61 KBOX 280042
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
842 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT A WIDESPREAD/SOAKING RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED. DURING FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS.
FOR THIS WEEKEND...A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY LINGER NEAR OUR
AREA INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY/...

830 PM UPDATE...
INTENSITY OF CONVECTION HAD DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST
HOUR...AND THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN
EFFECT FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA HAS BEEN CANCELED. THE
LINGERING PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
THUNDER IS STILL POSSIBLE THRU 02Z. BECAUSE OF THE EXTENT OF
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED...EXPANDED THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP
EASTWARD INTO THE I495/I95 CORRIDOR...TO JUST TOUCH THE BOSTON
AREA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER LIGHTNING IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE
IT EAST OF THE I95 CORRDIOR THIS EVENING.

UPDATED SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AS WELL AS
MARINE STRATUS IN SOUTH COASTAL LOCALES...SO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED THRU THIS EVENING.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...SHOULD SEE LOW CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT BUT
AREAL COVERAGE IS VERY UNCERTAIN WITH HIGHEST RISK ACROSS SOUTH OF
MA PIKE. WINDS DO NOT TOTALLY DECOUPLE IN MOST LOCATIONS...SO
WHILE SOME FOG PATCHES ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SOUTH
COAST ITS EXTENT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SOME DEGREE. LOW TEMPS WILL
NOT DROP BELOW 65 DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS AS A RESULT OF
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

*** A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
  THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BUT A WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK IS NOT
  EXPECTED ***

THURSDAY...

ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES SHOULD MIX OUT ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION BY LATE MORNING.  THIS A RESULT OF WINDS VEERING AT LEAST A
BIT AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/COLD FRONT.  THE EXCEPTION TO THIS
WILL BE THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE/ISLANDS...WHERE MARINE INFLUENCE MAY
ALLOW LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES TO HANG ON MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE PARTIAL SUNSHINE EMERGE.  MILD START AND WITH
850 MB TEMPS AROUND +15C TO +16C SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH INTO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S NORTHWEST OF BOS TO PVD LINE.  IN FACT...MAY
SEE A FEW LOCATIONS NEAR 90 IN THE MERRIMACK RIVER VALLEY.  TEMPS
WILL BE COOLER SOUTHEAST OF A BOS TO PVD LINE GIVEN THE MARINE
INFLUENCE ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

THE MAIN CONCERN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
CAPES SHOULD INCREASE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/COLD FRONT.  IN ADDITIONAL...0 TO 6
KM SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPENING A LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALLOW SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL
FIRST OCCUR IN THE INTERIOR AND THEN MAKE THEIR WAY TOWARDS THE
COASTAL PLAIN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH THE PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH COLD FRONT.  ENOUGH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR AND 500 MB TEMPS
DROPPING TO AROUND -12C...MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.  WHILE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD/HIGH END
OUTBREAK...A FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN LOCALLY STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN...AS
IT TYPICALLY IS WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY EVENING. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDER EARLY ACROSS EAST AND SOUTH COASTAL AREAS
WITH THE FRONT...THEN PRECIP CHANCES COME TO AN END AND HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP ALONG SOUTH COASTAL MA AND RI.

FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND PASSING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRING
A MAINLY DRY DAY TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A BIT LESS WARM WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S...EXCEPT ONSHORE WINDS KEEP TEMPS LOWER
CLOSE TO THE SHORELINE.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE...ENABLING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO BRING INCREASING MOISTURE/HUMIDITY TOWARDS OUR
AREA. LATE IN THE DAY A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST...EMERGING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND QUEBEC.  WE
COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON
IN WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT...WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
EXTENDING EASTWARD SATURDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO
OUR AREA. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO OVER 1.5 INCHES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY... COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION DURING SUNDAY.
EXPECTING SHOWERS TO CROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY...LOWER CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT MAY REACH THE SOUTH COAST BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE FRONT HANGS
UP IN OUR AREA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE WITH
HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY...THEN CHANCE POPS THRU SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT TRACKS EVEN INTO THIS TIMEFRAME...WHETHER IT STALLS
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OR FURTHER OFFSHORE. THIS WILL AFFECT OUR
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. 00Z ECMWF WAS LEAST PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
FRONT...BUT THE 12Z ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE...NUDGING THE FRONT
SOUTH OF OUR AREA FOR MONDAY EVENING. 12Z GFS HAS OUR AREA MAINLY
DRY ON MONDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY...AND TUESDAY GOING MAINLY DRY...WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS ALONG SOUTH COASTAL LOCALES. THUNDER LOOKS LESS
PROBABLE FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BRINGING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THIS EVENING...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MIX OF VFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR THIS EVENING...WITH THE LOWER CIGS/VSBYS OVER THE
INTERIOR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...AND MVFR
CIGS SOUTH COASTAL MA AND RI IN STRATUS.

TONIGHT...LOW CLOUDS SHOULD ADVANCE FURTHER NORTH TONIGHT..BUT HOW
FAR NORTH THE LOW CLOUDS GET AND THEIR EXTENT REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
CIGS SHOULD BECOMING MAINLY MVFR...EXCEPT IFR SOUTH COASTAL MA
AND RI. WINDS PROBABLY DO NOT COMPLETELY DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT IN
MOST LOCATIONS...SO EXTENT OF FOG MAY BE LIMITED BUT SOME STILL
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG AREAS OF THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE/ISLANDS.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANY LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES
SHOULD BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING...EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTH
COAST/CAPE/ISLANDS WHERE MAY HANG TOUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...VFR BUT A COLD FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MAY BRING A
FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN BRIEFLY
LOWER CONDITIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...CONFIDENCE IN TAF DETERIORATES LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT.  VFR INTO THIS EVENING.  LOW CONFIDENCE IF IFR OR LOW
END MVFR CIGS CAN MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS THE BOS TERMINAL.

KBDL TERMINAL...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THRU BDL THRU 02Z OR SO WILL
PRODUCE VARIABLE CIGS/VSBYS. OTHERWISE...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
PROBABLE LATE THIS EVENING...UNTIL LOWER CIGS MAY INVADE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY...VFR. MAY SEE LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EARLY MORNING ALONG
S COAST IN PATCHY FOG...THEN MAY LOWER AGAIN LATE FRI NIGHT TO MVFR-
IFR.

SATURDAY...PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS... WILL
IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT NIGHT... WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS LINGER WITH ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

MONDAY...CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT MVFR WITH SCT SHOWERS SOUTH
COASTAL MA/RI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NEAR SHORE SMALL CRAFT WIND
GUSTS DIMINISH AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. HOWEVER...SCA CONTINUE
FOR THE OUTER- WATERS OVERNIGHT FOR MARGINAL 5 FOOT SEAS. AREAS OF
FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...BUT WINDS MAY BE A BIT TOO STRONG FOR
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.

THURSDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANOTHER ROUND OF NEAR SHORE
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  LATER
SHIFTS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO HOIST MORE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO
COVER THIS POTENTIAL.  IN ADDITION...A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY...LIGHT N-NE WINDS BECOME E DURING THE DAY...THEN SHIFT TO S-
SW FRI NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECTING GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILD AGAIN TO AROUND
5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY...COLD FRONT MAY LINGER NEAR THE WATERS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME...WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND GUSTS TO 20 KT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ231>235-
     237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NMB
NEAR TERM...FRANK/NMB
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...FRANK/NMB
MARINE...FRANK/NMB



000
FXUS61 KBOX 280042
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
842 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT A WIDESPREAD/SOAKING RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED. DURING FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS.
FOR THIS WEEKEND...A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY LINGER NEAR OUR
AREA INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY/...

830 PM UPDATE...
INTENSITY OF CONVECTION HAD DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST
HOUR...AND THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN
EFFECT FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA HAS BEEN CANCELED. THE
LINGERING PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
THUNDER IS STILL POSSIBLE THRU 02Z. BECAUSE OF THE EXTENT OF
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED...EXPANDED THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP
EASTWARD INTO THE I495/I95 CORRIDOR...TO JUST TOUCH THE BOSTON
AREA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER LIGHTNING IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE
IT EAST OF THE I95 CORRDIOR THIS EVENING.

UPDATED SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AS WELL AS
MARINE STRATUS IN SOUTH COASTAL LOCALES...SO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED THRU THIS EVENING.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...SHOULD SEE LOW CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT BUT
AREAL COVERAGE IS VERY UNCERTAIN WITH HIGHEST RISK ACROSS SOUTH OF
MA PIKE. WINDS DO NOT TOTALLY DECOUPLE IN MOST LOCATIONS...SO
WHILE SOME FOG PATCHES ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SOUTH
COAST ITS EXTENT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SOME DEGREE. LOW TEMPS WILL
NOT DROP BELOW 65 DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS AS A RESULT OF
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

*** A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
  THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BUT A WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK IS NOT
  EXPECTED ***

THURSDAY...

ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES SHOULD MIX OUT ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION BY LATE MORNING.  THIS A RESULT OF WINDS VEERING AT LEAST A
BIT AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/COLD FRONT.  THE EXCEPTION TO THIS
WILL BE THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE/ISLANDS...WHERE MARINE INFLUENCE MAY
ALLOW LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES TO HANG ON MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE PARTIAL SUNSHINE EMERGE.  MILD START AND WITH
850 MB TEMPS AROUND +15C TO +16C SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH INTO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S NORTHWEST OF BOS TO PVD LINE.  IN FACT...MAY
SEE A FEW LOCATIONS NEAR 90 IN THE MERRIMACK RIVER VALLEY.  TEMPS
WILL BE COOLER SOUTHEAST OF A BOS TO PVD LINE GIVEN THE MARINE
INFLUENCE ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

THE MAIN CONCERN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
CAPES SHOULD INCREASE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/COLD FRONT.  IN ADDITIONAL...0 TO 6
KM SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPENING A LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALLOW SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL
FIRST OCCUR IN THE INTERIOR AND THEN MAKE THEIR WAY TOWARDS THE
COASTAL PLAIN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH THE PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH COLD FRONT.  ENOUGH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR AND 500 MB TEMPS
DROPPING TO AROUND -12C...MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.  WHILE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD/HIGH END
OUTBREAK...A FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN LOCALLY STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN...AS
IT TYPICALLY IS WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY EVENING. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDER EARLY ACROSS EAST AND SOUTH COASTAL AREAS
WITH THE FRONT...THEN PRECIP CHANCES COME TO AN END AND HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP ALONG SOUTH COASTAL MA AND RI.

FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND PASSING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRING
A MAINLY DRY DAY TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A BIT LESS WARM WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S...EXCEPT ONSHORE WINDS KEEP TEMPS LOWER
CLOSE TO THE SHORELINE.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE...ENABLING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO BRING INCREASING MOISTURE/HUMIDITY TOWARDS OUR
AREA. LATE IN THE DAY A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST...EMERGING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND QUEBEC.  WE
COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON
IN WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT...WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
EXTENDING EASTWARD SATURDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO
OUR AREA. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO OVER 1.5 INCHES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY... COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION DURING SUNDAY.
EXPECTING SHOWERS TO CROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY...LOWER CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT MAY REACH THE SOUTH COAST BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE FRONT HANGS
UP IN OUR AREA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE WITH
HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY...THEN CHANCE POPS THRU SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT TRACKS EVEN INTO THIS TIMEFRAME...WHETHER IT STALLS
NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OR FURTHER OFFSHORE. THIS WILL AFFECT OUR
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. 00Z ECMWF WAS LEAST PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
FRONT...BUT THE 12Z ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE...NUDGING THE FRONT
SOUTH OF OUR AREA FOR MONDAY EVENING. 12Z GFS HAS OUR AREA MAINLY
DRY ON MONDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY...AND TUESDAY GOING MAINLY DRY...WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS ALONG SOUTH COASTAL LOCALES. THUNDER LOOKS LESS
PROBABLE FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BRINGING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THIS EVENING...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MIX OF VFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR THIS EVENING...WITH THE LOWER CIGS/VSBYS OVER THE
INTERIOR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...AND MVFR
CIGS SOUTH COASTAL MA AND RI IN STRATUS.

TONIGHT...LOW CLOUDS SHOULD ADVANCE FURTHER NORTH TONIGHT..BUT HOW
FAR NORTH THE LOW CLOUDS GET AND THEIR EXTENT REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
CIGS SHOULD BECOMING MAINLY MVFR...EXCEPT IFR SOUTH COASTAL MA
AND RI. WINDS PROBABLY DO NOT COMPLETELY DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT IN
MOST LOCATIONS...SO EXTENT OF FOG MAY BE LIMITED BUT SOME STILL
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG AREAS OF THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE/ISLANDS.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANY LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES
SHOULD BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING...EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTH
COAST/CAPE/ISLANDS WHERE MAY HANG TOUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...VFR BUT A COLD FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MAY BRING A
FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN BRIEFLY
LOWER CONDITIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...CONFIDENCE IN TAF DETERIORATES LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT.  VFR INTO THIS EVENING.  LOW CONFIDENCE IF IFR OR LOW
END MVFR CIGS CAN MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS THE BOS TERMINAL.

KBDL TERMINAL...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THRU BDL THRU 02Z OR SO WILL
PRODUCE VARIABLE CIGS/VSBYS. OTHERWISE...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS
PROBABLE LATE THIS EVENING...UNTIL LOWER CIGS MAY INVADE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY...VFR. MAY SEE LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EARLY MORNING ALONG
S COAST IN PATCHY FOG...THEN MAY LOWER AGAIN LATE FRI NIGHT TO MVFR-
IFR.

SATURDAY...PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS... WILL
IMPROVE. SCT SHRA/TSRA SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT NIGHT... WITH LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY...SCT SHOWERS LINGER WITH ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.

MONDAY...CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT MVFR WITH SCT SHOWERS SOUTH
COASTAL MA/RI.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NEAR SHORE SMALL CRAFT WIND
GUSTS DIMINISH AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. HOWEVER...SCA CONTINUE
FOR THE OUTER- WATERS OVERNIGHT FOR MARGINAL 5 FOOT SEAS. AREAS OF
FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...BUT WINDS MAY BE A BIT TOO STRONG FOR
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.

THURSDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  ANOTHER ROUND OF NEAR SHORE
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  LATER
SHIFTS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO HOIST MORE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO
COVER THIS POTENTIAL.  IN ADDITION...A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY...LIGHT N-NE WINDS BECOME E DURING THE DAY...THEN SHIFT TO S-
SW FRI NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT DURING SAT ON
THE EASTERN WATERS...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECTING GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILD AGAIN TO AROUND
5 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY...COLD FRONT MAY LINGER NEAR THE WATERS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME...WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND GUSTS TO 20 KT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ231>235-
     237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
     236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NMB
NEAR TERM...FRANK/NMB
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...FRANK/NMB
MARINE...FRANK/NMB



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