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000
FXUS61 KBOX 251743
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
143 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Large high pressure ridge extending across the northeast U.S.
into the Gulf of Maine will slowly shift down the coast, with
warm and dry conditions through Monday. An approaching cold
front brings showers and possibly some thunder later Monday
night through Wednesday. High pressure then brings dry
seasonable weather for the end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
140 PM update

Sunny skies continue in eastern MA and RI with partly sunny skies
in western MA and northern CT. Atmosphere is very dry so despite
instability in western areas, am not expecting any showers.
A brief isolated one cannot be ruled out along the immediate slopes
of the Berkshires late this afternoon. Temperatures already had
reached the mid 80s across much of the interior but they should be
holding there. Pleasant 70s along the coast where light onshore
sea breezes will continue until sundown.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Tonight...

With high pressure ridge across the region, will continue to be
dry and comfortable as dewpts fall back to the upper 40s to mid
50s. Light/variable winds in place, dropping off to calm across
some inland areas. With continued good radiational cooling, will
see temps fall back to the upper 40s to around 50 in the normally
prone areas of interior E Mass to the lower Cape and the Vineyard,
ranging to the mid 50s to around 60 in the urban centers. Once
again, may see a few hours of patchy low clouds and fog around or
after 06Z in the typically prone locations.

Sunday...

As the ridge begins to push S of the region, light winds will
become more S-SE across the region. While dry conditions continue
with dewpts in the lower-mid 50s, will start to see them creep up
during the afternoon across the CT valley. Expect another warm day
with highs in the 80s away from the coast, and in the lower-mid
70s near the shore.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Big Picture...

A shortwave originating over the Pacific Northwest moves east across
Canada and then digs over New England Tuesday and Wednesday. Above
normal heights Monday diminish to near normal the rest of the week.
This suggests above normal temps Monday trending to normal during
mid to late week.

Model forecast mass fields are similar much of the period. There are
differences between GFS and ECMWF with timing on the midweek cold
front. Confidence is limited as to exact timing, but potential for
convection should exist for both days.

Details...

Sunday night through Monday...

High pressure offshore moves farther away, and the surface flow
turns more from the south and southwest. Expect dry weather during
this time. 850 mb temps of 14-16C would support max sfc temps in the
mid 80s.

Monday night through Wednesday...

Northern shortwave approaches from the Great Lakes. At this time the
upper shortwave digs southeast toward New England and turns the
upper flow more from the southwest and parallel to the cold front.
With flow moving along the cold front rather than pushing it, we
should see the forward progress slow until the trough axis swings
overhead. Meanwhile the surface flow will bring a warm humid airmass
across New England with dew points climbing into the 60s. Stability
parameters will favor convection. The cold front will be the
eventual focusing mechanism on Wednesday, but a pre-frontal
trough may concentrate convection on Tuesday.

Thursday-Friday...

High pressure builds in behind the cold front but with upper
contours and 850 temps near seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Sunday/...High Confidence.

This afternoon...VFR. Light winds interior, with northeast to
east onshore sea breezes around 10 kt along the coast becoming
southeast.

Tonight and Sunday...VFR. Low risk for patchy MVFR conditions in
fog late after midnight tonight in normally prone locations.

KBOS TAF...High confidence. VFR. E-SE winds around 10 kt becoming
light S tonight. Winds shift back to E-SE around 10 kt by midday
Sunday.

KBDL TAF...High confidence. VFR. Low chance for MVFR-IFR
conditions in patchy fog 07Z-11Z tonight.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...

Sunday night and Monday... High confidence.

VFR. Light winds. Areas of IFR/LIFR possible in late night/early
morning fog.

Monday night through Wednesday... Moderate confidence.

Mostly VFR. Areas of IFR/LIFR in late night/early morning fog.
Also brief MVFR cigs/vsbys in scattered showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Sunday/...High confidence.

Winds and seas below small craft criteria through Sunday as high
pressure ridge remains across the waters.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/... Moderate confidence.

Winds and seas remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds
through the period. Potential for low vsbys in fog, especially
Tuesday and Wednesday early mornings. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms with brief poor vsbys Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT/GAF
NEAR TERM...GAF
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/EVT/GAF
MARINE...WTB/EVT/GAF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 251427
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
1027 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Large high pressure ridge extending across the northeast U.S.
into the Gulf of Maine will slowly shift down the coast, with
warm and dry conditions through Monday. An approaching cold
front brings showers and possibly some thunder later Monday
night through Wednesday. High pressure then brings dry
seasonable weather for the end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1025 AM update

High pressure overhead with generally clear skies and light wind.
Onshore sea breeze winds have already taken hold along the coast
Have upped temperature forecast by 3 to 5 degrees in some areas
per current readings, which were already into the mid 70s as of
10 AM. Expecting a sunny day in central and eastern areas with
scattered clouds developing in western sections this afternoon.
Highs reaching the mid 80s except 70s at the coast.

Lifted Indices of -4 in western MA and Surface CAPE near 1000
there this afternoon, too, but K indices in the 20s indicate that
the atmosphere is quite dry. Mesoscale models do show a potential
for isolated showers in the immediate slopes of the Berkshires
from 2-5 PM. For now, have introduced a 10-15 percent probability
for the immediate slopes of the Berkshires, which acknowledges
this but still keeps it out of the worded forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Tonight...

With high pressure ridge across the region, will continue to be
dry and comfortable as dewpts fall back to the upper 40s to mid
50s. Light/variable winds in place, dropping off to calm across
some inland areas. With continued good radiational cooling, will
see temps fall back to the upper 40s to around 50 in the normally
prone areas of interior E Mass to the lower Cape and the Vineyard,
ranging to the mid 50s to around 60 in the urban centers. Once
again, may see a few hours of patchy low clouds and fog around or
after 06Z in the typically prone locations.

Sunday...

As the ridge begins to push S of the region, light winds will
become more S-SE across the region. While dry conditions continue
with dewpts in the lower-mid 50s, will start to see them creep up
during the afternoon across the CT valley. Expect another warm day
with highs in the 80s away from the coast, and in the lower-mid
70s near the shore.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Big Picture...

A shortwave originating over the Pacific Northwest moves east across
Canada and then digs over New England Tuesday and Wednesday. Above
normal heights Monday diminish to near normal the rest of the week.
This suggests above normal temps Monday trending to normal during
mid to late week.

Model forecast mass fields are similar much of the period. There are
differences between GFS and ECMWF with timing on the midweek cold
front. Confidence is limited as to exact timing, but potential for
convection should exist for both days.

Details...

Sunday night through Monday...

High pressure offshore moves farther away, and the surface flow
turns more from the south and southwest. Expect dry weather during
this time. 850 mb temps of 14-16C would support max sfc temps in the
mid 80s.

Monday night through Wednesday...

Northern shortwave approaches from the Great Lakes. At this time the
upper shortwave digs southeast toward New England and turns the
upper flow more from the southwest and parallel to the cold front.
With flow moving along the cold front rather than pushing it, we
should see the forward progress slow until the trough axis swings
overhead. Meanwhile the surface flow will bring a warm humid airmass
across New England with dew points climbing into the 60s. Stability
parameters will favor convection. The cold front will be the
eventual focusing mechanism on Wednesday, but a pre-frontal
trough may concentrate convection on Tuesday.

Thursday-Friday...

High pressure builds in behind the cold front but with upper
contours and 850 temps near seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Sunday/...High Confidence.

Today...VFR. Light winds, with east to southeast onshore sea
breezes along the coast up to around 10 kt.

Tonight and Sunday...VFR. Low risk for patchy MVFR conditions in
fog late after midnight tonight in normally prone locations.

KBOS TAF...High confidence. VFR. E-SE winds increasing to around
10 kt becoming light S tonight. Winds shift back to E-SE around
10 kt by midday Sunday.

KBDL TAF...High confidence. VFR. Low chance for MVFR-IFR
conditions in patchy fog 07Z-11Z tonight.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...

Sunday night and Monday... High confidence.

VFR. Light winds. Areas of IFR/LIFR possible in late night/early
morning fog.

Monday night through Wednesday... Moderate confidence.

Mostly VFR. Areas of IFR/LIFR in late night/early morning fog.
Also brief MVFR cigs/vsbys in scattered showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Sunday/...High confidence.

Expect winds and seas below small craft criteria through Sunday
as high pressure ridge remains across the waters.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/... Moderate confidence.

Winds and seas remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds
through the period. Potential for low vsbys in fog, especially
Tuesday and Wednesday early mornings. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms with brief poor vsbys Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT/GAF
NEAR TERM...GAF
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/EVT/GAF
MARINE...WTB/EVT/GAF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 251044
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
644 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Large high pressure ridge extending across the northeast U.S.
into the Gulf of Maine will slowly shift down the coast, with
warm and dry conditions through Monday. An approaching cold
front brings showers and possibly some thunder later Monday
night through Wednesday. High pressure then brings dry
seasonable weather for the end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

645 AM update

High pressure overhead with generally clear skies and light wind.
Dew points are 45 to 55. This is lower/drier than the long-term
average for June 25th of 55 to 58, but still much higher than the
extreme low values for June 25th of 33 to 36.

This is your all-purpose fair weather day with the light flow
allowing sea breezes along the coasts. No changes to the forecast.

Previous discussion

W-E high pressure ridge axis sitting from W NY state to the Gulf
of Maine will slowly shift to the S coast during the day today.
Expect a generally light E-SE wind, becoming more southerly across
N CT and the CT valley this afternoon. With a light pressure
gradient, sea breezes will kick in by midday with speeds up to
around 10 kt.

With a very dry airmass in place through the layer, expect excellent
subsidence through the day even with fair lapse rates as H5 temps of
-14C to -15C. Do note some afternoon showers trying to develop, but
mainly across the Hudson Valley into the northern mountains of
NH/VT as winds become more S there.

Expect temps to rise to the 80s away from the coast, highest across
the CT valley where a 90 degree reading may be possible, while
holding in the 70s along the immediate coast.  It will feel
comfortable though as dewpts remain in the lower-mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Tonight...

With high pressure ridge across the region, will continue to be
dry and comfortable as dewpts fall back to the upper 40s to mid
50s. Light/variable winds in place, dropping off to calm across
some inland areas. With continued good radiational cooling, will
see temps fall back to the upper 40s to around 50 in the normally
prone areas of interior E Mass to the lower Cape and the Vineyard,
ranging to the mid 50s to around 60 in the urban centers. Once
again, may see a few hours of patchy low clouds and fog around or
after 06Z in the typically prone locations.

Sunday...

As the ridge begins to push S of the region, light winds will
become more S-SE across the region. While dry conditions continue
with dewpts in the lower-mid 50s, will start to see them creep up
during the afternoon across the CT valley. Expect another warm day
with highs in the 80s away from the coast, and in the lower-mid
70s near the shore.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Big Picture...

A shortwave originating over the Pacific Northwest moves east across
Canada and then digs over New England Tuesday and Wednesday. Above
normal heights Monday diminish to near normal the rest of the week.
This suggests above normal temps Monday trending to normal during
mid to late week.

Model forecast mass fields are similar much of the period. There are
differences between GFS and ECMWF with timing on the midweek cold
front. Confidence is limited as to exact timing, but potential for
convection should exist for both days.

Details...

Sunday night through Monday...

High pressure offshore moves farther away, and the surface flow
turns more from the south and southwest. Expect dry weather during
this time. 850 mb temps of 14-16C would support max sfc temps in the
mid 80s.

Monday night through Wednesday...

Northern shortwave approaches from the Great Lakes. At this time the
upper shortwave digs southeast toward New England and turns the
upper flow more from the southwest and parallel to the cold front.
With flow moving along the cold front rather than pushing it, we
should see the forward progress slow until the trough axis swings
overhead. Meanwhile the surface flow will bring a warm humid airmass
across New England with dew points climbing into the 60s. Stability
parameters will favor convection. The cold front will be the
eventual focusing mechanism on Wednesday, but a pre-frontal
trough may concentrate convection on Tuesday.

Thursday-Friday...

High pressure builds in behind the cold front but with upper
contours and 850 temps near seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Sunday/...High Confidence.

Today...VFR. Light S-SE winds, becoming sea breezes along the
coast up to around 10 kt by midday.

Tonight and Sunday...VFR. Low risk for patchy MVFR conditions in
fog late after midnight tonight in normally prone locations.

KBOS TAF...High confidence. VFR. E-SE winds increasing to around
10 kt by midday today becoming light S tonight. Winds shift back
to E-SE around 10 kt by midday Sunday.

KBDL TAF...High confidence. VFR. Low chance for MVFR-IFR
conditions in patchy fog 07Z-11Z tonight.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...

Sunday night and Monday... High confidence.

VFR. Light winds. Areas of IFR/LIFR possible in late night/early
morning fog.

Monday night through Wednesday... Moderate confidence.

Mostly VFR. Areas of IFR/LIFR in late night/early morning fog.
Also brief MVFR cigs/vsbys in scattered showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Sunday/...High confidence.

Expect winds and seas below small craft criteria through Sunday
as high pressure ridge remains across the waters.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/... Moderate confidence.

Winds and seas remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds
through the period. Potential for low vsbys in fog, especially
Tuesday and Wednesday early mornings. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms with brief poor vsbys Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 250837
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
437 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

Large high pressure ridge extending across the northeast U.S.
into the Gulf of Maine will slowly shift down the coast, with
warm and dry conditions through Monday. An approaching cold
front brings showers and possibly some thunder later Monday
night through Wednesday. High pressure then brings dry
seasonable weather for the end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

Clear skies continue across the region at 08Z. Noting patchy low
clouds and fog across some of the normally susceptible spots of E
Mass extending down to the lower Cape and Martha`s Vineyard. Temps
have dropped back to 45-50 from KBED-KEWB, with the lowest reading
of 43 on the Vineyard, and even 47 at KPVC as winds have dropped
off to calm.

W-E high pressure ridge axis sitting from W NY state to the Gulf of
Maine will slowly shift to the S coast during the day today.
Expect a generally light E-SE wind, becoming more southerly across
N CT and the CT valley this afternoon. With a light pressure
gradient, sea breezes will kick in by midday with speeds up to
around 10 kt.

With a very dry airmass in place through the layer, expect excellent
subsidence through the day even with fair lapse rates as H5 temps of
-14C to -15C. Do note some afternoon showers trying to develop, but
mainly across the Hudson Valley into the northern mountains of
NH/VT as winds become more S there.

Expect temps to rise to the 80s away from the coast, highest across
the CT valley where a 90 degree reading may be possible, while
holding in the 70s along the immediate coast.  It will feel
comfortable though as dewpts remain in the lower-mid 50s.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...

Tonight...

With high pressure ridge across the region, will continue to be
dry and comfortable as dewpts fall back to the upper 40s to mid
50s. Light/variable winds in place, dropping off to calm across
some inland areas. With continued good radiational cooling, will
see temps fall back to the upper 40s to around 50 in the normally
prone areas of interior E Mass to the lower Cape and the Vineyard,
ranging to the mid 50s to around 60 in the urban centers. Once
again, may see a few hours of patchy low clouds and fog around or
after 06Z in the typically prone locations.

Sunday...

As the ridge begins to push S of the region, light winds will
become more S-SE across the region. While dry conditions continue
with dewpts in the lower-mid 50s, will start to see them creep up
during the afternoon across the CT valley. Expect another warm day
with highs in the 80s away from the coast, and in the lower-mid
70s near the shore.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Big Picture...

A shortwave originating over the Pacific Northwest moves east across
Canada and then digs over New England Tuesday and Wednesday. Above
normal heights Monday diminish to near normal the rest of the week.
This suggests above normal temps Monday trending to normal during
mid to late week.

Model forecast mass fields are similar much of the period. There are
differences between GFS and ECMWF with timing on the midweek cold
front. Confidence is limited as to exact timing, but potential for
convection should exist for both days.

Details...

Sunday night through Monday...

High pressure offshore moves farther away, and the surface flow
turns more from the south and southwest. Expect dry weather during
this time. 850 mb temps of 14-16C would support max sfc temps in the
mid 80s.

Monday night through Wednesday...

Northern shortwave approaches from the Great Lakes. At this time the
upper shortwave digs southeast toward New England and turns the
upper flow more from the southwest and parallel to the cold front.
With flow moving along the cold front rather than pushing it, we
should see the forward progress slow until the trough axis swings
overhead. Meanwhile the surface flow will bring a warm humid airmass
across New England with dew points climbing into the 60s. Stability
parameters will favor convection. The cold front will be the
eventual focusing mechanism on Wednesday, but a pre-frontal
trough may concentrate convection on Tuesday.

Thursday-Friday...

High pressure builds in behind the cold front but with upper
contours and 850 temps near seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Sunday/...High Confidence.

Through 12Z...VFR. Patchy fog with MVFR-IFR across interior E
Mass to KMVY/KFMH.

Today...VFR. Light S-SE winds, becoming sea breezes along the
coast up to around 10 kt by midday.

Tonight and Sunday...VFR. Low risk for patchy MVFR conditions in
fog late after midnight tonight in normally prone locations.

KBOS TAF...High confidence. VFR. E-SE winds increasing to around
10 kt by midday today becoming light S tonight. Winds shift back
to E-SE around 10 kt by midday Sunday.

KBDL TAF...High confidence. VFR. Low chance for MVFR-IFR
conditions in patchy fog 07Z-11Z tonight.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...

Sunday night and Monday... High confidence.

VFR. Light winds. Areas of IFR/LIFR possible in late night/early
morning fog.

Monday night through Wednesday... Moderate confidence.

Mostly VFR. Areas of IFR/LIFR in late night/early morning fog.
Also brief MVFR cigs/vsbys in scattered showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Sunday/...High confidence.

Expect winds and seas below small craft criteria through Sunday
as high pressure ridge remains across the waters.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/... Moderate confidence.

Winds and seas remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds
through the period. Potential for low vsbys in fog, especially
Tuesday and Wednesday early mornings. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms with brief poor vsbys Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 250837
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
437 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

Large high pressure ridge extending across the northeast U.S.
into the Gulf of Maine will slowly shift down the coast, with
warm and dry conditions through Monday. An approaching cold
front brings showers and possibly some thunder later Monday
night through Wednesday. High pressure then brings dry
seasonable weather for the end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

Clear skies continue across the region at 08Z. Noting patchy low
clouds and fog across some of the normally susceptible spots of E
Mass extending down to the lower Cape and Martha`s Vineyard. Temps
have dropped back to 45-50 from KBED-KEWB, with the lowest reading
of 43 on the Vineyard, and even 47 at KPVC as winds have dropped
off to calm.

W-E high pressure ridge axis sitting from W NY state to the Gulf of
Maine will slowly shift to the S coast during the day today.
Expect a generally light E-SE wind, becoming more southerly across
N CT and the CT valley this afternoon. With a light pressure
gradient, sea breezes will kick in by midday with speeds up to
around 10 kt.

With a very dry airmass in place through the layer, expect excellent
subsidence through the day even with fair lapse rates as H5 temps of
-14C to -15C. Do note some afternoon showers trying to develop, but
mainly across the Hudson Valley into the northern mountains of
NH/VT as winds become more S there.

Expect temps to rise to the 80s away from the coast, highest across
the CT valley where a 90 degree reading may be possible, while
holding in the 70s along the immediate coast.  It will feel
comfortable though as dewpts remain in the lower-mid 50s.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...

Tonight...

With high pressure ridge across the region, will continue to be
dry and comfortable as dewpts fall back to the upper 40s to mid
50s. Light/variable winds in place, dropping off to calm across
some inland areas. With continued good radiational cooling, will
see temps fall back to the upper 40s to around 50 in the normally
prone areas of interior E Mass to the lower Cape and the Vineyard,
ranging to the mid 50s to around 60 in the urban centers. Once
again, may see a few hours of patchy low clouds and fog around or
after 06Z in the typically prone locations.

Sunday...

As the ridge begins to push S of the region, light winds will
become more S-SE across the region. While dry conditions continue
with dewpts in the lower-mid 50s, will start to see them creep up
during the afternoon across the CT valley. Expect another warm day
with highs in the 80s away from the coast, and in the lower-mid
70s near the shore.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Big Picture...

A shortwave originating over the Pacific Northwest moves east across
Canada and then digs over New England Tuesday and Wednesday. Above
normal heights Monday diminish to near normal the rest of the week.
This suggests above normal temps Monday trending to normal during
mid to late week.

Model forecast mass fields are similar much of the period. There are
differences between GFS and ECMWF with timing on the midweek cold
front. Confidence is limited as to exact timing, but potential for
convection should exist for both days.

Details...

Sunday night through Monday...

High pressure offshore moves farther away, and the surface flow
turns more from the south and southwest. Expect dry weather during
this time. 850 mb temps of 14-16C would support max sfc temps in the
mid 80s.

Monday night through Wednesday...

Northern shortwave approaches from the Great Lakes. At this time the
upper shortwave digs southeast toward New England and turns the
upper flow more from the southwest and parallel to the cold front.
With flow moving along the cold front rather than pushing it, we
should see the forward progress slow until the trough axis swings
overhead. Meanwhile the surface flow will bring a warm humid airmass
across New England with dew points climbing into the 60s. Stability
parameters will favor convection. The cold front will be the
eventual focusing mechanism on Wednesday, but a pre-frontal
trough may concentrate convection on Tuesday.

Thursday-Friday...

High pressure builds in behind the cold front but with upper
contours and 850 temps near seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Sunday/...High Confidence.

Through 12Z...VFR. Patchy fog with MVFR-IFR across interior E
Mass to KMVY/KFMH.

Today...VFR. Light S-SE winds, becoming sea breezes along the
coast up to around 10 kt by midday.

Tonight and Sunday...VFR. Low risk for patchy MVFR conditions in
fog late after midnight tonight in normally prone locations.

KBOS TAF...High confidence. VFR. E-SE winds increasing to around
10 kt by midday today becoming light S tonight. Winds shift back
to E-SE around 10 kt by midday Sunday.

KBDL TAF...High confidence. VFR. Low chance for MVFR-IFR
conditions in patchy fog 07Z-11Z tonight.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...

Sunday night and Monday... High confidence.

VFR. Light winds. Areas of IFR/LIFR possible in late night/early
morning fog.

Monday night through Wednesday... Moderate confidence.

Mostly VFR. Areas of IFR/LIFR in late night/early morning fog.
Also brief MVFR cigs/vsbys in scattered showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Sunday/...High confidence.

Expect winds and seas below small craft criteria through Sunday
as high pressure ridge remains across the waters.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/... Moderate confidence.

Winds and seas remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds
through the period. Potential for low vsbys in fog, especially
Tuesday and Wednesday early mornings. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms with brief poor vsbys Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 250756
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
356 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Large high pressure remains over the northeast U.S. into early
next week keeping warm and dry conditions across the region.
Warmest days will be Sunday afternoon into Monday with highest
temperatures inland. An approaching cold front brings showers and
psoobly some thunder later Monday night through Wednesday. High
pressure then brings dry seasonable weather for the end of next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1045 PM Update...

Mainly clear skies across the region at 02Z. Noting a few mid
level clouds moving across near the E slopes of the Berkshires of
NW Mass, along with some mid and high clouds scrapping across the
islands from the northern fringe of scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms moving E at around 40N southward.

With high pressure across the region and winds dropping off to
near calm, temps will continue to fall back especially in the
normally cooler valley. Seeing temps down to the mid 50s across
interior E Mass and even at Martha`s Vineyard with calm winds.
Could see patchy radiation fog developing in those areas after 1
or 2 AM through around sunrise. Otherwise, expect clear
conditions overnight for most of the area.

Near term forecast pretty much on track. Have updated to bring
conditions current and incorporated into the overnight trends.

Previous discussion...

With the ideal radiational cooling conditions followed the cooler
MET and MAV guidance as 2m temps too warm in this pattern for
overnight mins.

Could be a few hours of patchy fog toward daybreak in the
typically prone locations.

Could be some mid to high cloudiness on the southern horizon
across the Islands and Cape Cod as shortwave energy in the WNW
flow aloft induces a weak frontal wave off the mid-Atlantic coast
and tracks eastward, south of 40N.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Saturday...

High pressure overhead providing light winds and promoting
afternoon sea breezes. However, with mean mid-level trough axis
just offshore, cold temps aloft linger across southern New
England with H5 temps about -14C. This provides modest mid level
lapse rates, however should be enough deep layer dry air within
the column to offset any shower potential. NAM offers a risk of
isolated afternoon showers in the high terrain however this is a
result of its dew pts climbing into the 60s. Not happening with
surface ridge over the area and other model guidance limiting dew
pts to the 50s. Thus have discounted the NAM and will continue
with a dry forecast.

Very similar day tomorrow to today with comfortable humidity and
warm temps with afternoon highs in the 80s inland away from the
cooling afternoon sea breezes. Highs in the 70s along the coast.
Given the recent dry weather /dry soil, etc/ temps have been
overachieving. Thus have added a few degs to a model blend.

Sat night...

High pressure remains over the area providing dry weather. Another
comfortable cool night with low dew pts, light winds and mostly
clear skies. Followed a blend of the MOS guid which yielded lows
in the 50s to near 60 in the city of Boston. Could be a few hours
of patchy fog toward daybreak in the typical prone locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Big Picture...

A shortwave originating over the Pacific Northwest moves east across
Canada and then digs over New England Tuesday and Wednesday. Above
normal heights Monday diminish to near normal the rest of the week.
This suggests above normal temps Monday trending to normal during
mid to late week.

Model forecast mass fields are similar much of the period. There are
differences between GFS and ECMWF with timing on the midweek cold
front. Confidence is limited as to exact timing, but potential for
convection should exist for both days.

Details...

Sunday night through Monday...

High pressure offshore moves farther away, and the surface flow
turns more from the south and southwest. Expect dry weather during
this time. 850 mb temps of 14-16C would support max sfc temps in the
mid 80s.

Monday night through Wednesday...

Northern shortwave approaches from the Great Lakes. At this time the
upper shortwave digs southeast toward New England and turns the
upper flow more from the southwest and parallel to the cold front.
With flow moving along the cold front rather than pushing it, we
should see the forward progress slow until the trough axis swings
overhead. Meanwhile the surface flow will bring a warm humid airmass
across New England with dew points climbing into the 60s. Stability
parameters will favor convection. The cold front will be the
eventual focussing mechanism on Wednesday, but a pre-frontal trough
may concentrate convection on Tuesday.

Thursday-Friday...

High pressure builds in behind the cold front but with upper
contours and 850 temps near seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Sunday/...High Confidence.

Overnight...VFR. Low risk for patchy fog/MVFR after 06Z-07Z for a
few hours in the typically prone locations.

Saturday and Saturday night...VFR with light and variable winds
inland, then sea breezes along the coast by midday or earlier
Saturday. Low risk again for patchy MVFR conditions in fog late
Sat night in normally prone locations.

KBOS TAF...High confidence. VFR. Light SE winds will become
light/variable overnight. Winds then shift back to SE Sat
morning.

KBDL TAF...High confidence. VFR. Low chance for MVFR-IFR
conditions in patchy fog 07Z-11Z tonight and again Sat night.

Outlook /Sunday night through Wednesday/...

Sunday night and Monday... High confidence.

VFR. Light winds. Areas of IFR/LIFR possible in late night/early
morning fog.

Monday night through Wednesday... Moderate confidence.

Mostly VFR. Areas of IFR/LIFR in late night/early mornign fog. Also
brief MVFR cigs/vsbys in scattered showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Sunday/...High confidence.

Ridge of high pres over southern New England thru Sat night
yielding light and variable winds. Weak low pres will track
southeast of 40N/70W Saturday.

Outlook /Sunday night through Wednesday/... Moderate confidence.

Winds and seas remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds through
the period. Potential for low vsbys in fog, especially Tuesday and
Wednesday early mornings.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms with
brief poor vsbys Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 250315
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
1115 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Large high pressure remains over the northeast U.S. into early
next week keeping warm and dry conditions across the region.
Warmest days will be Sunday afternoon into Monday with highest
temperatures inland. A frontal boundary may bring showers and
thunderstorms to the area Tuesday and Wednesday. More seasonable
weather is expected late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

1045 PM Update...

Mainly clear skies across the region at 02Z. Noting a few mid
level clouds moving across near the E slopes of the Berkshires of
NW Mass, along with some mid and high clouds scrapping across the
islands from the northern fringe of scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms moving E at around 40N southward.

With high pressure across the region and winds dropping off to
near calm, temps will continue to fall back especially in the
normally cooler valley. Seeing temps down to the mid 50s across
interior E Mass and even at Martha`s Vineyard with calm winds.
Could see patchy radiation fog developing in those areas after 1
or 2 AM through around sunrise. Otherwise, expect clear
conditions overnight for most of the area.

Near term forecast pretty much on track. Have updated to bring
conditions current and incorporated into the overnight trends.

Previous discussion...

With the ideal radiational cooling conditions followed the cooler
MET and MAV guidance as 2m temps too warm in this pattern for
overnight mins.

Could be a few hours of patchy fog toward daybreak in the
typically prone locations.

Could be some mid to high cloudiness on the southern horizon
across the Islands and Cape Cod as shortwave energy in the WNW
flow aloft induces a weak frontal wave off the mid-Atlantic coast
and tracks eastward, south of 40N.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

Saturday...

High pressure overhead providing light winds and promoting
afternoon sea breezes. However, with mean mid-level trough axis
just offshore, cold temps aloft linger across southern New
England with H5 temps about -14C. This provides modest mid level
lapse rates, however should be enough deep layer dry air within
the column to offset any shower potential. NAM offers a risk of
isolated afternoon showers in the high terrain however this is a
result of its dew pts climbing into the 60s. Not happening with
surface ridge over the area and other model guidance limiting dew
pts to the 50s. Thus have discounted the NAM and will continue
with a dry forecast.

Very similar day tomorrow to today with comfortable humidity and
warm temps with afternoon highs in the 80s inland away from the
cooling afternoon sea breezes. Highs in the 70s along the coast.
Given the recent dry weather /dry soil, etc/ temps have been
overachieving. Thus have added a few degs to a model blend.

Sat night...

High pressure remains over the area providing dry weather. Another
comfortable cool night with low dew pts, light winds and mostly
clear skies. Followed a blend of the MOS guid which yielded lows
in the 50s to near 60 in the city of Boston. Could be a few hours
of patchy fog toward daybreak in the typical prone locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Highlights...

* Warm temperatures Sunday and Monday
* Showers and thunderstorms possible Tue into Tue night
* Cooler and drier weather returns late Wednesday or Thursday

Overview...Models are in overall good agreement on the long term
portion of the forecast.  Will use a blend of available guidance for
this forecast.  Relatively quiet pattern continues with broad upper
level ridge over the western U.S. and broad upper troughing over the
eastern U.S.  A cold front will move through southern New England on
Tuesday or Wednesday (depending on the model, GFS is faster)
bringing showers and thunderstorms to the area.

Temperatures...A warming trend is expected Sunday and Monday with
temperatures climbing well into the 80s and possibly into the 90s in
the Connecticut Valley Monday.  Slightly cooler temperatures Tuesday
and Wednesday as a cold front moves through.  Temperatures return to
seasonable levels for the end of the week.

Precipitation...There is a chance of showers Tuesday and possibly
into Wednesday as a cold front moves through southern New England.
There is enough instability indicated in the models for some thunder
with these showers.  Plenty of uncertainty here as dry weather tends
to lead to more dry weather.  Not looking at any significant
precipitation through the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Saturday Night/...High Confidence.

Overnight...VFR. Low risk for patchy fog/MVFR after 06Z-07Z for a
few hours in the typically prone locations.

Saturday and Saturday night...VFR with light and variable winds
inland, then sea breezes along the coast by midday or earlier
Saturday. Low risk again for patchy MVFR conditions in fog late
Sat night in normally prone locations.

KBOS TAF...High confidence. VFR. Light SE winds will become
light/variable overnight. Winds then shift back to SE Sat
morning.

KBDL TAF...High confidence. VFR. Low chance for MVFR-IFR
conditions in patchy fog 07Z-11Z tonight and again Sat night.

Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...

Sunday and Monday...High confidence.  VFR conditions.  Light and
variable winds.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Moderate confidence.  Mainly VFR conditions
and dry weather. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may result in
brief periods of MVFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Saturday Night/...High confidence.

Ridge of high pres over southern New England thru Sat night
yielding light and variable winds. Weak low pres will track
southeast of 40N/70W Saturday.

Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...

Sunday and Monday...High confidence.  Mainly quiet boating weather
is expected.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Moderate confidence.  Winds and seas
increase as a cold front approaches and then crosses over the
coastal waters sometime late Tuesday to Wednesday.  Winds look to
remain below SCA criteria, but seas will increase to 5 to 6 feet on
the outer waters.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Nocera/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG/EVT
SHORT TERM...Nocera
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...Nocera/RLG/EVT
MARINE...Nocera/RLG/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 242258
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
658 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Large high pressure remains over the northeast U.S. into early
next week keeping warm and dry conditions across the region.
Warmest days will be Sunday afternoon into Monday with highest
temperatures inland. A frontal boundary may bring showers and
thunderstorms to the area Tuesday and Wednesday. More seasonable
weather is expected late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
7 pm update...No major changes to the forecast at this time.
Mostly clear skies and temperatures in the 70s for much of the
area. Expect a quick drop off in temperatures after sunset as
dewpoints are in the 40s and winds are light. Made minor
adjustments to the temperatures to account for the latest trends.
Otherwise, the forecast is on track.

Overnight...

Another comfortable night with lows in the 50s region-wide except
around 60 in the city of Boston. Given the ideal radiational
cooling conditions followed the cooler MET and MAV guidance as 2m
temps too warm in this pattern for overnight mins.

Could be a few hours of patchy fog toward daybreak in the
typically prone locations.

Could be some mid to high cloudiness on the southern horizon across
the Islands and Cape Cod as shortwave energy in the WNW flow
aloft induces a weak frontal wave off the mid-Atlantic coast and
traces eastward, south of 40N.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Saturday...

High pressure overhead providing light winds and promoting
afternoon sea breezes. However, with mean mid-level trough axis
just offshore, cold temps aloft linger across southern New
England with H5 temps about -14C. This provides modest mid level
lapse rates, however should be enough deep layer dry air within
the column to offset any shower potential. NAM offers a risk of
isolated afternoon showers in the high terrain however this is a
result of its dew pts climbing into the 60s. Not happening with
surface ridge over the area and other model guidance limiting dew
pts to the 50s. Thus have discounted the NAM and will continue
with a dry forecast.

Very similar day tomorrow to today with comfortable humidity and
warm temps with afternoon highs in the 80s inland away from the
cooling afternoon sea breezes. Highs in the 70s along the coast.
Given the recent dry weather /dry soil, etc/ temps have been
overachieving. Thus have added a few degs to a model blend.

Sat night...

High pressure remains over the area providing dry weather. Another
comfortable cool night with low dew pts, light winds and mostly
clear skies. Followed a blend of the MOS guid which yielded lows
in the 50s to near 60 in the city of Boston. Could be a few hours
of patchy fog toward daybreak in the typical prone locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Highlights...

* Warm temperatures Sunday and Monday
* Showers and thunderstorms possible Tue into Tue night
* Cooler and drier weather returns late Wednesday or Thursday

Overview...Models are in overall good agreement on the long term
portion of the forecast.  Will use a blend of available guidance for
this forecast.  Relatively quiet pattern continues with broad upper
level ridge over the western U.S. and broad upper troughing over the
eastern U.S.  A cold front will move through southern New England on
Tuesday or Wednesday (depending on the model, GFS is faster)
bringing showers and thunderstorms to the area.

Temperatures...A warming trend is expected Sunday and Monday with
temperatures climbing well into the 80s and possibly into the 90s in
the Connecticut Valley Monday.  Slightly cooler temperatures Tuesday
and Wednesday as a cold front moves through.  Temperatures return to
seasonable levels for the end of the week.

Precipitation...There is a chance of showers Tuesday and possibly
into Wednesday as a cold front moves through southern New England.
There is enough instability indicated in the models for some thunder
with these showers.  Plenty of uncertainty here as dry weather tends
to lead to more dry weather.  Not looking at any significant
precipitation through the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Saturday Night/...High Confidence.

VFR with light and variable winds inland, then sea breezes along
the coast by midday or earlier. Low risk for patchy fog/MVFR
toward daybreak for a few hours in the typically prone locations.

KBOS TAF...High confidence. VFR. Southeast winds will bend to the
south later this evening. Winds then settle back to SE Sat
morning.

KBDL TAF...High confidence. VFR. Low chance for MVFR-IFR
conditions in patchy fog 07Z-11Z tonight and again Sat night.

Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...

Sunday and Monday...High confidence.  VFR conditions.  Light and
variable winds.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Moderate confidence.  Mainly VFR conditions
and dry weather. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may result in
brief periods of MVFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Saturday Night/...High confidence.

Ridge of high pres over southern New England thru Sat night
yielding light and variable winds. Weak low pres will track
southeast of 40N/70W Saturday.

Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...

Sunday and Monday...High confidence.  Mainly quiet boating weather
is expected.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Moderate confidence.  Winds and seas
increase as a cold front approaches and then crosses over the
coastal waters sometime late Tuesday to Wednesday.  Winds look to
remain below SCA criteria, but seas will increase to 5 to 6 feet on
the outer waters.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Nocera/RLG
NEAR TERM...Nocera/RLG
SHORT TERM...Nocera
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...Nocera/RLG
MARINE...Nocera/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 241932
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
332 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Large high pressure remains over the northeast U.S. into early
next week keeping dry conditions across the region. Warm days and
cool nights will continue into Sunday morning...then turning hot
beginning Sunday afternoon into Monday with highest temperatures
inland. A frontal boundary may bring showers and thunderstorms to
the area Tuesday and Wednesday. More seasonable weather is
expected late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
3 pm update...

This evening...

Weak high pressure over the region and accompanied by a dry
airmass with dew pts in the 40s inland...50s along the coast is
providing splendid weather by late June standards. Dry column
only yielding some scattered strato-cu with a focus for the clouds
across CT into RI as seabreeze moving inland provides some
convergence. Also some additional diurnal clouds over the higher
terrain but nevertheless mostly sunny skies.

Given the dry airmass with dew pts in the 40s temps will fall
noticeably with sunset given mostly clear skies and light winds.
Diurnal clouds will also erode with sunset as well. Other than
cooling temps with sunset a very pleasant evening ahead.

Overnight...

Another comfortable night with lows in the 50s regionwide except
around 60 in the city of Boston. Given the ideal radiational
cooling conditions followed by cooler MET and MAV guidance as 2m
temps too warm in this pattern for overnight mins.

Could be a few hours of patchy fog toward daybreak in the typical
prone locations.

Could be some mid to high cloudiness on the southern horizon across
the Islands and Cape Cod as short wave energy in the WNW flow
aloft induces a weak frontal wave off the Mid Atlc coast and
traces eastward...south of 40N.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Saturday...

High pressure overhead providing light winds and promoting
afternoon seabreezes. However with mean mid level trough axis just
offshore cold temps aloft linger across southern New England with
H5 temps about -14C. This provides modest mid level lapse rates
however should be enough deep layer dry air within the column to
offset any shower potential. NAM offers a risk of isolated
afternoon showers high terrain however this is a result of it`s
dew pts climbing into the 60s. Not happening with surface ridge
over the area and other model guidance limit dew pts to the 50s.
Thus have discounted the NAM and will continue with a dry
forecast.

Very similar day tomorrow to today with comfortable humidity and
warm temps with afternoon highs in the 80s inland away from the
cooling afternoon seabreezes. Highs in the 70s along the coast.
Given the recent dry weather /dry soil, etc/ temps have been
overachieving. Thus have added a few degs to a model blend.

Sat night...

High pressure remains over the area providing dry weather. Another
comfortable cool night with low dew pts...light winds and mostly
clear skies. Followed a blend of the MOS guid which yielded lows
in the 50s to near 60 in the city of Boston. Could be a few hours
of patchy fog toward daybreak in the typical prone locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Highlights...

* Warm temperatures Sunday and Monday
* Showers and thunderstorms possible Tue into Tue night
* Cooler and drier weather returns late Wednesday or Thursday

Overview...Models are in overall good agreement on the long term
portion of the forecast.  Will use a blend of available guidance for
this forecast.  Relatively quiet pattern continues with broad upper
level ridge over the western U.S. and broad upper troughing over the
eastern U.S.  A cold front will move through southern New England on
Tuesday or Wednesday (depending on the model, GFS is faster)
bringing showers and thunderstorms to the area.

Temperatures...A warming trend is expected Sunday and Monday with
temperatures climbing well into the 80s and possibly into the 90s in
the Connecticut Valley Monday.  Slightly cooler temperatures Tuesday
and Wednesday as a cold front moves through.  Temperatures return to
seasonable levels for the end of the week.

Precipitation...There is a chance of showers Tuesday and possibly
into Wednesday as a cold front moves through southern New England.
There is enough instability indicated in the models for some thunder
with these showers.  Plenty of uncertainty here as dry weather tends
to lead to more dry weather.  Not looking at any significant
precipitation through the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Saturday Night/...High Confidence.

VFR with light and variable winds inland...then seabreezes along
the coast by midday or earlier. Low risk for patchy fog/MVFR toward
daybreak for a few hours in the typically prone locations.

KBOS TAF...High confidence. VFR. East winds late Fri will bend to
the SE and then S later this evening. Winds then settle back to SE
Sat morning.

KBDL TAF...High confidence. VFR. Low chance for MVFR-IFR
conditions in patchy fog 07Z-11Z tonight and again Sat night.

Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...

Sunday and Monday...High confidence.  VFR conditions.  Light and
variable winds.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Moderate confidence.  Mainly VFR conditions
and dry weather. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may result in
brief periods of MVFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Saturday Night/...High confidence.

Ridge of high pres over southern New England thru Sat night
yielding light and variable winds. Weak low pres will track
southeast of 40N/70W Saturday.

Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...

Sunday and Monday...High confidence.  Mainly quiet boating weather
is expected.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Moderate confidence.  Winds and seas
increase as a cold front approaches and then crosses over the
coastal waters sometime late Tuesday to Wednesday.  Winds look to
remain below SCA criteria, but seas will increase to 5 to 6 feet on
the outer waters.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Nocera/RLG
NEAR TERM...Nocera
SHORT TERM...Nocera
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...Nocera/RLG
MARINE...Nocera/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 241932
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
332 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Large high pressure remains over the northeast U.S. into early
next week keeping dry conditions across the region. Warm days and
cool nights will continue into Sunday morning...then turning hot
beginning Sunday afternoon into Monday with highest temperatures
inland. A frontal boundary may bring showers and thunderstorms to
the area Tuesday and Wednesday. More seasonable weather is
expected late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
3 pm update...

This evening...

Weak high pressure over the region and accompanied by a dry
airmass with dew pts in the 40s inland...50s along the coast is
providing splendid weather by late June standards. Dry column
only yielding some scattered strato-cu with a focus for the clouds
across CT into RI as seabreeze moving inland provides some
convergence. Also some additional diurnal clouds over the higher
terrain but nevertheless mostly sunny skies.

Given the dry airmass with dew pts in the 40s temps will fall
noticeably with sunset given mostly clear skies and light winds.
Diurnal clouds will also erode with sunset as well. Other than
cooling temps with sunset a very pleasant evening ahead.

Overnight...

Another comfortable night with lows in the 50s regionwide except
around 60 in the city of Boston. Given the ideal radiational
cooling conditions followed by cooler MET and MAV guidance as 2m
temps too warm in this pattern for overnight mins.

Could be a few hours of patchy fog toward daybreak in the typical
prone locations.

Could be some mid to high cloudiness on the southern horizon across
the Islands and Cape Cod as short wave energy in the WNW flow
aloft induces a weak frontal wave off the Mid Atlc coast and
traces eastward...south of 40N.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Saturday...

High pressure overhead providing light winds and promoting
afternoon seabreezes. However with mean mid level trough axis just
offshore cold temps aloft linger across southern New England with
H5 temps about -14C. This provides modest mid level lapse rates
however should be enough deep layer dry air within the column to
offset any shower potential. NAM offers a risk of isolated
afternoon showers high terrain however this is a result of it`s
dew pts climbing into the 60s. Not happening with surface ridge
over the area and other model guidance limit dew pts to the 50s.
Thus have discounted the NAM and will continue with a dry
forecast.

Very similar day tomorrow to today with comfortable humidity and
warm temps with afternoon highs in the 80s inland away from the
cooling afternoon seabreezes. Highs in the 70s along the coast.
Given the recent dry weather /dry soil, etc/ temps have been
overachieving. Thus have added a few degs to a model blend.

Sat night...

High pressure remains over the area providing dry weather. Another
comfortable cool night with low dew pts...light winds and mostly
clear skies. Followed a blend of the MOS guid which yielded lows
in the 50s to near 60 in the city of Boston. Could be a few hours
of patchy fog toward daybreak in the typical prone locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Highlights...

* Warm temperatures Sunday and Monday
* Showers and thunderstorms possible Tue into Tue night
* Cooler and drier weather returns late Wednesday or Thursday

Overview...Models are in overall good agreement on the long term
portion of the forecast.  Will use a blend of available guidance for
this forecast.  Relatively quiet pattern continues with broad upper
level ridge over the western U.S. and broad upper troughing over the
eastern U.S.  A cold front will move through southern New England on
Tuesday or Wednesday (depending on the model, GFS is faster)
bringing showers and thunderstorms to the area.

Temperatures...A warming trend is expected Sunday and Monday with
temperatures climbing well into the 80s and possibly into the 90s in
the Connecticut Valley Monday.  Slightly cooler temperatures Tuesday
and Wednesday as a cold front moves through.  Temperatures return to
seasonable levels for the end of the week.

Precipitation...There is a chance of showers Tuesday and possibly
into Wednesday as a cold front moves through southern New England.
There is enough instability indicated in the models for some thunder
with these showers.  Plenty of uncertainty here as dry weather tends
to lead to more dry weather.  Not looking at any significant
precipitation through the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Saturday Night/...High Confidence.

VFR with light and variable winds inland...then seabreezes along
the coast by midday or earlier. Low risk for patchy fog/MVFR toward
daybreak for a few hours in the typically prone locations.

KBOS TAF...High confidence. VFR. East winds late Fri will bend to
the SE and then S later this evening. Winds then settle back to SE
Sat morning.

KBDL TAF...High confidence. VFR. Low chance for MVFR-IFR
conditions in patchy fog 07Z-11Z tonight and again Sat night.

Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...

Sunday and Monday...High confidence.  VFR conditions.  Light and
variable winds.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Moderate confidence.  Mainly VFR conditions
and dry weather. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may result in
brief periods of MVFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Saturday Night/...High confidence.

Ridge of high pres over southern New England thru Sat night
yielding light and variable winds. Weak low pres will track
southeast of 40N/70W Saturday.

Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...

Sunday and Monday...High confidence.  Mainly quiet boating weather
is expected.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Moderate confidence.  Winds and seas
increase as a cold front approaches and then crosses over the
coastal waters sometime late Tuesday to Wednesday.  Winds look to
remain below SCA criteria, but seas will increase to 5 to 6 feet on
the outer waters.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Nocera/RLG
NEAR TERM...Nocera
SHORT TERM...Nocera
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...Nocera/RLG
MARINE...Nocera/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 241915
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
315 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Large high pressure remains over the northeast U.S. into early
next week keeping dry conditions across the region. Warm days and
cool nights will continue into Sunday morning...then turning hot
beginning Sunday afternoon into Monday with highest temperatures
inland. A frontal boundary may bring showers and thunderstorms to
the area Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

3 pm update ...

This evening ...

Weak high pressure over the region and accompanied by a dry
airmass with dew pts in the 40s inland...50s along the coast is
providing splendid weather by late June standards. Dry column
only yielding some scattered strato-cu with a focus for the clouds
across CT into RI as seabreeze moving inland provides some
convergence. Also some additional diurnal clouds over the higher
terrain but nevertheless mostly sunny skies.

Given the dry airmass with dew pts in the 40s temps will fall
noticeably with sunset given mostly clear skies and light winds.
Diurnal clouds will also erode with sunset as well. Other than
cooling temps with sunset a very pleasant evening ahead.

Overnight ...

Another comfortable night with lows in the 50s regionwide except
around 60 in the city of Boston. Given the ideal radiational
cooling conditions followed by cooler MET and MAV guidance as 2m
temps too warm in this pattern for overnight mins.

Could be a few hours of patchy fog toward daybreak in the typical
prone locations.

Could be some mid to high cloudiness on the southern horizon across
the Islands and Cape Cod as short wave energy in the WNW flow
aloft induces a weak frontal wave off the Mid Atlc coast and
traces eastward...south of 40N.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

Saturday ...

High pressure overhead providing light winds and promoting
afternoon seabreezes. However with mean mid level trough axis just
offshore cold temps aloft linger across southern New England with
H5 temps about -14C. This provides modest mid level lapse rates
however should be enough deep layer dry air within the column to
offset any shower potential. NAM offers a risk of isolated
afternoon showers high terrain however this is a result of it`s
dew pts climbing into the 60s. Not happening with surface ridge
over the area and other model guidance limit dew pts to the 50s.
Thus have discounted the NAM and will continue with a dry
forecast.

Very similar day tomorrow to today with comfortable humidity and
warm temps with afternoon highs in the 80s inland away from the
cooling afternoon seabreezes. Highs in the 70s along the coast.
Given the recent dry weather /dry soil, etc/ temps have been
overachieving. Thus have added a few degs to a model blend.

Sat night ...

High pressure remains over the area providing dry weather. Another
comfortable cool night with low dew pts...light winds and mostly
clear skies. Followed a blend of the MOS guid which yielded lows
in the 50s to near 60 in the city of Boston. Could be a few hours
of patchy fog toward daybreak in the typical prone locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Big Picture...

Longwave pattern continues to show ridge west/trough east through
next week. Shortwave scale shows a ridge over New England Sunday
moving east of us on Monday. A shortwave originating over the
Pacific Northwest moves east across Canada over the weekend and
then digs over New England Tuesday and Wednesday.

Above normal heights with the ridge Sunday-Monday, diminishing to
near normal Tuesday-Wednesday. This suggests above normal temps
Sunday-Monday returning to near normal midweek.

Model forecast mass fields are similar through Monday, then
diverge a little starting Tuesday. Even with the divergence, the
forecast scenarios are similar. This encourages confidence in the
forecast through midweek.

Details...

Saturday night through Monday...

High pressure in control with dry weather. Light flow on Sunday
will support sea breezes along the coasts which will buffer
daytime max temps in those areas while the interior heats up. The
top of the mixed layer Sunday and Monday will be between 800 mb
and 850 mb, with temps supporting max surface temps 85 to 90.
Model temps for Monday actually looked a few degrees too cool.
Suspect sunshine will allow for deeper mixing and warmer temps. We
bumped values up 3 degrees F.

Monday night through Thursday...

Northern shortwave pushes a cold front through the Great Lakes
early week and across New England Tuesday or Wednesday. The GFS
shows the faster timing with passage on Tuesday, while the ECMWF
is slower with cold fropa Wednesday. As the shortwave digs over
the Northeast USA the upper flow turns more southwest and parallel
to the front. This would work to slow down forward progress until
the shortwave axis sweeps through. Thus we favor the slower EC
scenario, but with enough uncertainty to mention chance pops later
Monday night and Tuesday. Stability parameters show potential for
thunder.

Weak high pressure builds dry weather in for Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Saturday Night/ ... High Confidence.

VFR with light and variable winds inland...then seabreezes along
the coast by midday or earlier. Low risk for patchy fog/MVFR toward
daybreak for a few hours in the typically prone locations.

KBOS TAF...High confidence. VFR. East winds late Fri will bend to
the SE and then S later this evening. Winds then settle back to SE
Sat morning.

KBDL TAF...High confidence. VFR. Low chance for MVFR-IFR
conditions in patchy fog 07Z-11Z tonight and again Sat night.

Outlook /Sunday through Tuesday/... Moderate to High
confidence.

Sunday through Monday...Areas of IFR and LIFR in late night/early
morning fog. Otherwise VFR. Sea Breezes expected Sunday. Potential
for local MVFR cigs/vsbys in showers and t-storms Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Saturday Night/ ... High confidence.

Ridge of high pres over southern New England thru Sat night
yielding light and variable winds. Weak low pres will track
southeast of 40N/70W Saturday.

Outlook /Sunday through Tuesday/...Moderate to high
confidence.

Winds and seas remain below Small Craft thresholds through Monday.
On Tuesday a steady wind from South-Southwest will bring gusts to 25
knots as well as 5 foot seas on the outer waters.  A Small Craft
advisory may be needed Tuesday.&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Nocera
NEAR TERM...Nocera
SHORT TERM...Nocera
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/Nocera
MARINE...WTB/Nocera




000
FXUS61 KBOX 241051
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
651 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Large high pressure will slowly move across the northeast U.S.
into early next week, keeping dry conditions across the region.
Warm to hot temperatures will move in Sunday and Monday, with
showers and thunderstorms possible Tuesday. More seasonable
weather is expected late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

7 am update

Patches of fog in SE Mass and Ct Valley are burning off. Generally
fair skies over the region, and the fair weather will continue
through the day.  No changes planned for the forecast.

Previous discussion

High pressure ridge stretching from the Great Lakes into northern
New England early this morning will slowly shift into the region
this afternoon. With the position of this high, expect N-NE winds
to veer to E-NE during the day but, with a low pressure gradient
in place, winds will generally be at 10 mph or less. Will see some
gusts up to around 15 mph this morning along the immediate S coast
and the islands.

H85 temps start off in the +9C to +12C range this morning, but
should recover to +12C to +14 during the afternoon. With nearly
full summer sunshine, expect temps to recover to the mid 70s to
lower 80s away from the coast, but will remain cooler especially
along the E coast with the onshore winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Tonight...

As the ridge axis slowly settles across the region, it will
gradually shift E. Expect mainly clear conditions with light E-SE
winds. Will need to monitor the normally susceptible areas for
radiational cooling, especially interior E Mass, the northern CT
valley and even Martha`s Vineyard where they radiate very well
with calm winds. For now, have lows mainly in the 50s, though a
few spots could drop below 50. Could also see patchy low clouds
and fog redevelop after midnight in the normally prone spots.

Saturday...

High pressure continues to slowly shift E, while low pressure
lingers off the mid Atlantic coast. This will keep mainly E winds
in place, and may pick up along the S coast during the afternoon
with gusts possibly up to around 20 mph. Should be another mainly
sunny, warm summer`s day. Highs will range in the lower-mid 80s
away from the coast, mildest across the lower CT valley, but
holding mainly in the 70s along the immediate coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Big Picture...

Longwave pattern continues to show ridge west/trough east through
next week. Shortwave scale shows a ridge over New England Sunday
moving east of us on Monday. A shortwave originating over the
Pacific Northwest moves east across Canada over the weekend and
then digs over New England Tuesday and Wednesday.

Above normal heights with the ridge Sunday-Monday, diminishing to
near normal Tuesday-Wednesday. This suggests above normal temps
Sunday-Monday returning to near normal midweek.

Model forecast mass fields are similar through Monday, then
diverge a little starting Tuesday. Even with the divergence, the
forecast scenarios are similar. This encourages confidence in the
forecast through midweek.

Details...

Saturday night through Monday...

High pressure in control with dry weather. Light flow on Sunday
will support sea breezes along the coasts which will buffer
daytime max temps in those areas while the interior heats up. The
top of the mixed layer Sunday and Monday will be between 800 mb
and 850 mb, with temps supporting max surface temps 85 to 90.
Model temps for Monday actually looked a few degrees too cool.
Suspect sunshine will allow for deeper mixing and warmer temps. We
bumped values up 3 degrees F.

Monday night through Thursday...

Northern shortwave pushes a cold front through the Great Lakes
early week and across New England Tuesday or Wednesday. The GFS
shows the faster timing with passage on Tuesday, while the ECMWF
is slower with cold fropa Wednesday. As the shortwave digs over
the Northeast USA the upper flow turns more southwest and parallel
to the front. This would work to slow down forward progress until
the shortwave axis sweeps through. Thus we favor the slower EC
scenario, but with enough uncertainty to mention chance pops later
Monday night and Tuesday. Stability parameters show potential for
thunder.

Weak high pressure builds dry weather in for Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Saturday/...High Confidence.

Today...VFR. Light N-NE winds becoming E-SE up to around 10 kt
during the day. Any leftover IFR conditions improve by 14Z.

Tonight...Mainly VFR. Local MVFR-LIFR conditions in patchy fog
after midnight, mainly across lower CT River Valley, interior non-
urban locations, perhaps along the S-coast. Light winds.

Saturday...VFR. Light E-SE winds, may gust up to 15 kt during the
afternoon along the S coast.

KBOS TAF...High confidence. VFR. Light N-NE winds becoming E-SE
today through Saturday.

KBDL TAF...High confidence. Mainly VFR. Low chance for MVFR-IFR
conditions in patchy fog after midnight through 11Z-12Z Saturday.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/... Moderate to High
confidence.

Saturday night through Monday...Areas of IFR and LIFR in late
night/early morning fog. Otherwise VFR. Sea Breezes expected Sunday.
Potential for local MVFR cigs/vsbys in showers and t-storms Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Saturday/...High confidence.

Today...Light N-NE winds early, becoming E-SE during the day.
Gusts up to 15 kt possible along southern near shore waters this
afternoon. Seas build up to 4 ft on the southern waters during the
afternoon.

Tonight...E-NE winds continue, gusting up to 15 kt on the
southern outer waters. Seas up to 4 feet continue over the S
waters.

Friday...E-NE winds gradually increase over the southern waters
up to E of Cape Cod during the day with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas
continue at around 4 ft, but may see a few reach to 5 ft well
offshore during the afternoon.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...Moderate to high
confidence.

Winds and seas remain below Small Craft thresholds through Monday.
On Tuesday a steady wind from South-Southwest will bring gusts to 25
knots as well as 5 foot seas on the outer waters.  A Small Craft
advisory may be needed Tuesday.&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 241051
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
651 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Large high pressure will slowly move across the northeast U.S.
into early next week, keeping dry conditions across the region.
Warm to hot temperatures will move in Sunday and Monday, with
showers and thunderstorms possible Tuesday. More seasonable
weather is expected late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

7 am update

Patches of fog in SE Mass and Ct Valley are burning off. Generally
fair skies over the region, and the fair weather will continue
through the day.  No changes planned for the forecast.

Previous discussion

High pressure ridge stretching from the Great Lakes into northern
New England early this morning will slowly shift into the region
this afternoon. With the position of this high, expect N-NE winds
to veer to E-NE during the day but, with a low pressure gradient
in place, winds will generally be at 10 mph or less. Will see some
gusts up to around 15 mph this morning along the immediate S coast
and the islands.

H85 temps start off in the +9C to +12C range this morning, but
should recover to +12C to +14 during the afternoon. With nearly
full summer sunshine, expect temps to recover to the mid 70s to
lower 80s away from the coast, but will remain cooler especially
along the E coast with the onshore winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Tonight...

As the ridge axis slowly settles across the region, it will
gradually shift E. Expect mainly clear conditions with light E-SE
winds. Will need to monitor the normally susceptible areas for
radiational cooling, especially interior E Mass, the northern CT
valley and even Martha`s Vineyard where they radiate very well
with calm winds. For now, have lows mainly in the 50s, though a
few spots could drop below 50. Could also see patchy low clouds
and fog redevelop after midnight in the normally prone spots.

Saturday...

High pressure continues to slowly shift E, while low pressure
lingers off the mid Atlantic coast. This will keep mainly E winds
in place, and may pick up along the S coast during the afternoon
with gusts possibly up to around 20 mph. Should be another mainly
sunny, warm summer`s day. Highs will range in the lower-mid 80s
away from the coast, mildest across the lower CT valley, but
holding mainly in the 70s along the immediate coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Big Picture...

Longwave pattern continues to show ridge west/trough east through
next week. Shortwave scale shows a ridge over New England Sunday
moving east of us on Monday. A shortwave originating over the
Pacific Northwest moves east across Canada over the weekend and
then digs over New England Tuesday and Wednesday.

Above normal heights with the ridge Sunday-Monday, diminishing to
near normal Tuesday-Wednesday. This suggests above normal temps
Sunday-Monday returning to near normal midweek.

Model forecast mass fields are similar through Monday, then
diverge a little starting Tuesday. Even with the divergence, the
forecast scenarios are similar. This encourages confidence in the
forecast through midweek.

Details...

Saturday night through Monday...

High pressure in control with dry weather. Light flow on Sunday
will support sea breezes along the coasts which will buffer
daytime max temps in those areas while the interior heats up. The
top of the mixed layer Sunday and Monday will be between 800 mb
and 850 mb, with temps supporting max surface temps 85 to 90.
Model temps for Monday actually looked a few degrees too cool.
Suspect sunshine will allow for deeper mixing and warmer temps. We
bumped values up 3 degrees F.

Monday night through Thursday...

Northern shortwave pushes a cold front through the Great Lakes
early week and across New England Tuesday or Wednesday. The GFS
shows the faster timing with passage on Tuesday, while the ECMWF
is slower with cold fropa Wednesday. As the shortwave digs over
the Northeast USA the upper flow turns more southwest and parallel
to the front. This would work to slow down forward progress until
the shortwave axis sweeps through. Thus we favor the slower EC
scenario, but with enough uncertainty to mention chance pops later
Monday night and Tuesday. Stability parameters show potential for
thunder.

Weak high pressure builds dry weather in for Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Saturday/...High Confidence.

Today...VFR. Light N-NE winds becoming E-SE up to around 10 kt
during the day. Any leftover IFR conditions improve by 14Z.

Tonight...Mainly VFR. Local MVFR-LIFR conditions in patchy fog
after midnight, mainly across lower CT River Valley, interior non-
urban locations, perhaps along the S-coast. Light winds.

Saturday...VFR. Light E-SE winds, may gust up to 15 kt during the
afternoon along the S coast.

KBOS TAF...High confidence. VFR. Light N-NE winds becoming E-SE
today through Saturday.

KBDL TAF...High confidence. Mainly VFR. Low chance for MVFR-IFR
conditions in patchy fog after midnight through 11Z-12Z Saturday.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/... Moderate to High
confidence.

Saturday night through Monday...Areas of IFR and LIFR in late
night/early morning fog. Otherwise VFR. Sea Breezes expected Sunday.
Potential for local MVFR cigs/vsbys in showers and t-storms Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Saturday/...High confidence.

Today...Light N-NE winds early, becoming E-SE during the day.
Gusts up to 15 kt possible along southern near shore waters this
afternoon. Seas build up to 4 ft on the southern waters during the
afternoon.

Tonight...E-NE winds continue, gusting up to 15 kt on the
southern outer waters. Seas up to 4 feet continue over the S
waters.

Friday...E-NE winds gradually increase over the southern waters
up to E of Cape Cod during the day with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas
continue at around 4 ft, but may see a few reach to 5 ft well
offshore during the afternoon.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...Moderate to high
confidence.

Winds and seas remain below Small Craft thresholds through Monday.
On Tuesday a steady wind from South-Southwest will bring gusts to 25
knots as well as 5 foot seas on the outer waters.  A Small Craft
advisory may be needed Tuesday.&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 240849
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
449 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Large high pressure will slowly move across the northeast U.S.
into early next week, keeping dry conditions across the region.
Warm to hot temperatures will move in Sunday and Monday, with
showers and thunderstorms possible Tuesday. More seasonable
weather is expected late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

Low clouds and patchy fog have developed across portions of
interior SE Mass as well as on Cape Cod and Nantucket at 08Z. Also
noting patchy mid level clouds crossing the region on latest IR
satellite imagery, otherwise skies were generally clear.

High pressure ridge stretching from the Great Lakes into northern
New England early this morning will slowly shift into the region
this afternoon. With the position of this high, expect N-NE winds
to veer to E-NE during the day but, with a low pressure gradient
in place, winds will generally be at 10 mph or less. Will see some
gusts up to around 15 mph this morning along the immediate S coast
and the islands.

Any leftover clouds and patchy fog should dissipate by mid
morning, though some mid and high clouds may linger across the
islands through midday on the northern fringe of convection moving
off the mid Atlantic coast.

H85 temps start off in the +9C to +12C range this morning, but
should recover to +12C to +14C during the afternoon. With nearly
full summer sunshine, expect temps to recover to the mid 70s to
lower 80s away from the coast, but will remain cooler especially
along the E coast with the onshore winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

Tonight...

As the ridge axis slowly settles across the region, it will
gradually shift E. Expect mainly clear conditions with light E-SE
winds. Will need to monitor the normally susceptible areas for
radiational cooling, especially interior E Mass, the northern CT
valley and even Martha`s Vineyard where they radiate very well
with calm winds. For now, have lows mainly in the 50s, though a
few spots could drop below 50. Could also see patchy low clouds
and fog redevelop after midnight in the normally prone spots.

Saturday...

High pressure continues to slowly shift E, while low pressure
lingers off the mid Atlantic coast. This will keep mainly E winds
in place, and may pick up along the S coast during the afternoon
with gusts possibly up to around 20 mph. Should be another mainly
sunny, warm summer`s day. Highs will range in the lower-mid 80s
away from the coast, mildest across the lower CT valley, but
holding mainly in the 70s along the immediate coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Big Picture...

Longwave pattern continues to show ridge west/trough east through
next week. Shortwave scale shows a ridge over New England Sunday
moving east of us on Monday. A shortwave originating over the
Pacific Northwest moves east across Canada over the weekend and
then digs over New England Tuesday and Wednesday.

Above normal heights with the ridge Sunday-Monday, diminishing to
near normal Tuesday-Wednesday. This suggests above normal temps
Sunday-Monday returning to near normal midweek.

Model forecast mass fields are similar through Monday, then
diverge a little starting Tuesday. Even with the divergence, the
forecast scenarios are similar. This encourages confidence in the
forecast through midweek.

Details...

Saturday night through Monday...

High pressure in control with dry weather. Light flow on Sunday
will support sea breezes along the coasts which will buffer
daytime max temps in those areas while the interior heats up. The
top of the mixed layer Sunday and Monday will be between 800 mb
and 850 mb, with temps supporting max surface temps 85 to 90.
Model temps for Monday actually looked a few degrees too cool.
Suspect sunshine will allow for deeper mixing and warmer temps. We
bumped values up 3 degrees F.

Monday night through Thursday...

Northern shortwave pushes a cold front through the Great Lakes
early week and across New England Tuesday or Wednesday. The GFS
shows the faster timing with passage on Tuesday, while the ECMWF
is slower with cold fropa Wednesday. As the shortwave digs over
the Northeast USA the upper flow turns more southwest and parallel
to the front. This would work to slow down forward progress until
the shortwave axis sweeps through. Thus we favor the slower EC
scenario, but with enough uncertainty to mention chance pops later
Monday night and Tuesday. Stability parameters show potential for
thunder.

Weak high pressure builds dry weather in for Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Saturday/...High Confidence.

Through 12Z...Mainly VFR. Local IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS in patchy fog
mainly across interior SE MA and outer Cape Cod.

Today...VFR. Light N-NE winds becoming E-SE up to around 10 kt
during the day. Any leftover IFR conditions improve by 14Z.

Tonight...Mainly VFR. Local MVFR-LIFR conditions in patchy fog
after midnight, mainly across lower CT River Valley, interior non-
urban locations, perhaps along the S-coast. Light winds.

Saturday...VFR. Light E-SE winds, may gust up to 15 kt during the
afternoon along the S coast.

KBOS TAF...High confidence. VFR. Light N-NE winds becoming E-SE
today through Saturday.

KBDL TAF...High confidence. Mainly VFR. Low chance for MVFR-IFR
conditions in patchy fog after midnight through 11Z-12Z Saturday.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/... Moderate to High
confidence.

Saturday night through Monday...Areas of IFR and LIFR in late
night/early morning fog. Otherwise VFR. Sea Breezes expected Sunday.
Potential for local MVFR cigs/vsbys in showers and t-storms Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Saturday/...High confidence.

Through 12Z...Light N-NE winds. Seas 3 ft or less. Patchy low
clouds and fog, reducing visibilities.

Today...Light N-NE winds early, becoming E-SE during the day.
Gusts up to 15 kt possible along southern near shore waters this
afternoon. Seas build up to 4 ft on the southern waters during the
afternoon.

Tonight...E-NE winds continue, gusting up to 15 kt on the
southern outer waters. Seas up to 4 feet continue over the S
waters.

Friday...E-NE winds gradually increase over the southern waters
up to E of Cape Cod during the day with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas
continue at around 4 ft, but may see a few reach to 5 ft well
offshore during the afternoon.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...Moderate to high
confidence.

Winds and seas remain below Small Craft thresholds through Monday.
On Tuesday a steady wind from South-Southwest will bring gusts to 25
knots as well as 5 foot seas on the outer waters.  A Small Craft
advisory may be needed Tuesday.&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 240822
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
422 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains influential over New England through the
weekend. Expect a warming trend which will continue into Monday
with showers and thunderstorms possible Tuesday. More seasonable
weather is expected late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1110 PM Update...

Noting a few bands of cirrus clouds crossing the region on latest
IR satellite imagery at 03Z, otherwise noting mainly clear skies.
03Z observations sowing some low clouds moving into central and
eastern Long Island which will be monitored to see if they work
into portions of the immediate S coast, Cape Cod and the islands
overnight. As high pressure slowly pushes into the region from the
NW, will see light/variable or calm winds.

Temps running mainly in the 60s, though noting a few upper 50s
across the northern CT valley, and up to around 70 in the urban
centers.

Forecast is pretty much on track except for some minor adjustments
on temps/dewpts to bring conditions current.

Previous discussion...

More widespread clearing across SRN New England this evening
partially as shearing vort max shifts S of the region. This will
tend toward clearing skies but noted temps running a bit warmer
than previously forecast. Therefore, only changes were to bring in
more widespread clear skies later tonight and raise mins just a
shade. Still think it will be cool overall, with many places
dropping into the lower 50s before rising again.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Friday...

High pressure in control. Light winds. Beneath cooler air aloft with
H85 temperatures around +10C. But considering the high angle of the
sun, should easily warm back up into the upper-70s to low-80s.
Cooler along the coasts with expected sea-breezes. Dry and
comfortable as dewpoints will range in the 40s to low-50s.

Friday night...

High pressure pushes E. Begin to see return E/SE flow albeit
remaining light. Mostly clear, an opportunity for radiational
cooling and will need to watch those areas with sandy soils in
particular. Leaned cooler of the forecast guidance, mainly towards
MOS. Of greater attention is interior Southeast MA and Marthas
Vineyard which could fall into the 40s. Progged presently in the
low-50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Big Picture...

Longwave pattern continues to show ridge west/trough east through
next week. Shortwave scale shows a ridge over New England Sunday
moving east of us on Monday.  A shortwave originating over the
Pacific Northwest moves east across Canada over the weekend and then
digs over New England Tuesday and Wednesday.

Above normal heights with the ridge Sunday-Monday, diminishing
tonear normal Tuesday-Wednesday. This suggests above normal temps
Sunday-Monday returning to near normal midweek.

Model forecast mass fields are similar through Monday, then diverge
a little starting Tuesday. Even with the divergence, the forecast
scenarios are similar. This encourages confidence in the forecast
through midweek.

Details...

Saturday night through Monday...

High pressure in control with dry weather.  Light flow on Sunday
will support sea breezes along the coasts which will buffer daytime
max temps in those areas while the interior heats up.  The top of
the mixed layer Sunday and Monday will be between 800 mb and 850 mb,
with temps supporting max surface temps 85 to 90. Model temps
forMonday actually looked a few degrees too cool. Suspect sunshine
will allow for deeper mixing and warmer temps. We bumped values up 3
degrees F.

Monday night through Thursday...

Northern shortwave pushes a cold front through the Great Lakes early
week and across New England Tuesday or Wednesday.  The GFS shows the
faster timing with passage on Tuesday, while the ECMWF is slower
with cold fropa Wedensday. As the shortwave digs over the Northeast
USA the upper flow turns more southwest and parallel to the front.
This would work to slow down forward progress until the shortwave
axis sweeps through. Thus we favor the slower EC scenario, but with
enough uncertainty to mention chance pops later Monday night and
Tuesday. Stability parameters show potential for thunder.

Weak high pressure builds dry weather in for Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Saturday/...High Confidence.

No major changes with 03Z TAF update...

Overnight...VFR for all terminals. Low chance for low clouds and
patchy fog across portions of the immediate S coast, Cape and
Islands. IFR-LIFR cigs mainly with potential for fog over ACK.
Anticipating a near repeat of conditions the previous night over
ACK. Cigs 300 to 500 ft agl.

Friday...VFR. Light winds. Sea-breezes developing along the
coasts towards mid-morning.

Friday night...Patchy MVFR-LIFR conditions with fog. Lower CT
River Valley, interior non-urban locations, perhaps along the
S-coast. Light winds.

KBOS TAF...VFR. Light N-NE winds overnight before becoming E
again through Friday.

KBDL TAF...Concern with respect to Friday night into Saturday
morning with potential fog issues. Otherwise VFR and light winds.

Outlook /Saturday night through Tuesday/... Moderate to High
confidence.

Saturday night through Monday...Areas of IFR and LIFR in late
night/early morning fog. Otherwise VFR. Sea Breezes expected Sunday.
Potential for local MVFR cigs/vsbys in showers and t-storms Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Saturday/...High confidence.

Overnight...
Low clouds and fog issues. N-NE winds increasing as a weak
frontal boundary pushes offshore. Gusts up to 20 kt possible.

Friday...
NE winds initially with gusts up to 20 kt diminishing while
turning E-SE as high pressure pushes across New England into the
Gulf of Maine. Waves begin to build of 4 feet on the outer waters
but much of this looks to be the result of swell subsequent of
storm activity emerging off the Mid-Atlantic.

Friday Night...
Light winds overall out of the E-NE with high pressure situated
over the Gulf of Maine. Seas of 4 feet continue over the S waters
mainly due to swell from continued storm activity off the Mid-
Atlantic.

Outlook /Saturday night through Tuesday/... Moderate to high confidence.

Winds and seas remain below Small Craft thresholds through Monday.
On Tuesday a steady wind from South-Southwest will bring gusts to 25
knots as well as 5 foot seas on the outer waters.  A Small Craft
advisory may be needed Tuesday.&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 240338
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
1138 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains influential over New England through the
weekend. Expect a warming trend which will continue into Monday
with showers and thunderstorms possible Tuesday. More seasonable
weather is expected late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

1110 PM Update...

Noting a few bands of cirrus clouds crossing the region on latest
IR satellite imagery at 03Z, otherwise noting mainly clear skies.
03Z observations sowing some low clouds moving into central and
eastern Long Island which will be monitored to see if they work
into portions of the immediate S coast, Cape Cod and the islands
overnight. As high pressure slowly pushes into the region from the
NW, will see light/variable or calm winds.

Temps running mainly in the 60s, though noting a few upper 50s
across the northern CT valley, and up to around 70 in the urban
centers.

Forecast is pretty much on track except for some minor adjustments
on temps/dewpts to bring conditions current.

Previous discussion...

More widespread clearing across SRN New England this evening
partially as shearing vort max shifts S of the region. This will
tend toward clearing skies but noted temps running a bit warmer
than previously forecast. Therefore, only changes were to bring in
more widespread clear skies later tonight and raise mins just a
shade. Still think it will be cool overall, with many places
dropping into the lower 50s before rising again.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Friday...

High pressure in control. Light winds. Beneath cooler air aloft with
H85 temperatures around +10C. But considering the high angle of the
sun, should easily warm back up into the upper-70s to low-80s.
Cooler along the coasts with expected sea-breezes. Dry and
comfortable as dewpoints will range in the 40s to low-50s.

Friday night...

High pressure pushes E. Begin to see return E/SE flow albeit
remaining light. Mostly clear, an opportunity for radiational
cooling and will need to watch those areas with sandy soils in
particular. Leaned cooler of the forecast guidance, mainly towards
MOS. Of greater attention is interior Southeast MA and Marthas
Vineyard which could fall into the 40s. Progged presently in the
low-50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Highlights...

 * Warming into Monday
 * Some showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
 * More seasonable WX late week

Overview and model preferences...

Continuance of the nearly zonal flow across the northern CONUS on
the periphery of the cutoff anticyclone across the southern tier
suggests any particular energy/vortex to weaken some upstream. In
fact the building ridge which will bring about this weekend`s heat
is mostly a response to downstream trof development. Given we
remain on the anticyclonic shear side of this zonal flow, the
quiet trend looks to continue for the most part. The only issue is
an opening wave which will traverse this flow and arrive by Tue,
this is currently linked to the PACNW vortex and will gradually
open/weaken as it approaches New England. Otherwise, warmer than
normal temperatures, with generally modest dwpts will define the
next week. Not enough difference in the deterministic guidance
even by mid next week to stray too far from a blend for this
forecast update.

Details...

Sat and Sun...

The primary issue for the weekend will be the heat potential. H85
temps rising to between +12C and +14C should easily be mixed to,
providing at least mid-upper 80s, however, with a modified airmass
and some hint at downslope component to the isallobaric flow,
expect a few places to see the low 90s each day before all is said
and done. Gradient winds remain light but out of the SSW, cooling
RI and SE MA. E coastal sea breezes possible as gradient aloft
likely not strong enough to keep it fully offshore.

Mon...

Chance for a very warm day as return flow develops with high pres
moving E. H85 temps reach near +18C by afternoon. May be some
convective cloud debris from the W to contend with but otherwise,
full mixing expected with temps away from the south coast potentially
rising into the 90s with dwpts increasing to the low 60s. Low risk
for leftover convective shra by evening, but the best theta-e
ridging remains to the W per latest runs. Also to watch, dwpts
will run very close to crossover with S coastal SSTs, so will need
to watch for marine fog/stratus impacts.

Tue and Tue evening...

With wave opening and shifting the low more meridionally approaching
cold front is expected to slow as it reaches New England. Timing
of this feature will once again be key to impacts, as an afternoon
FROPA definitely suggests higher convective risk than an early AM
or late evening passage. At this time, modest cooling aloft suggests
MU CAPE values potentially exceeding 1500j/kg with sfc based values
closer to 1000j/kg. Not a true EML it appears as lapse rates will
only reach about 6.0 or slightly higher. Shear not impressive either
as the mid lvl flow remains relatively weak. Therefore, primary
risk would be heavy rain if any storms form. More to come as we
approach.

Wed and Thu...

Similar setup to this week. Cold front stalls offshore and how close
it sits will ultimately determine whether any MCS or developing
frontal wave could impact Srn New England. High pres to the N
looks to keep it too far S at this time thanks to some phasing of
the initial trof with a secondary Hudson Bay trof late week. This
suggests temps closer to seasonal normals, but a continuation of
the dry wx.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Friday Night/...High Confidence.

No major changes with 03Z TAF update...

Overnight...VFR for all terminals. Low chance for low clouds and
patchy fog across portions of the immediate S coast, Cape and
Islands. IFR-LIFR cigs mainly with potential for fog over ACK.
Anticipating a near repeat of conditions the previous night over
ACK. Cigs 300 to 500 ft agl.

Friday...VFR. Light winds. Sea-breezes developing along the
coasts towards mid-morning.

Friday night...Patchy MVFR-LIFR conditions with fog. Lower CT
River Valley, interior non-urban locations, perhaps along the
S-coast. Light winds.

KBOS TAF...VFR. Light N-NE winds overnight before becoming E
again through Friday.

KBDL TAF...Concern with respect to Friday night into Saturday
morning with potential fog issues. Otherwise VFR and light winds.

Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...High confidence.

Sat and Sun...
VFR. Light winds mainly E and SE. Sea breezes expected.

Mon and Tue...
Mainly VFR. Low risk for early AM fog with localized IFR conditions.
Some showers and thundershowers, especially Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Friday Night/...High confidence.

Overnight...
Low clouds and fog issues. N-NE winds increasing as a weak
frontal boundary pushes offshore. Gusts up to 20 kt possible.

Friday...
NE winds initially with gusts up to 20 kt diminishing while
turning E-SE as high pressure pushes across New England into the
Gulf of Maine. Waves begin to build of 4 feet on the outer waters
but much of this looks to be the result of swell subsequent of
storm activity emerging off the Mid-Atlantic.

Friday Night...
Light winds overall out of the E-NE with high pressure situated
over the Gulf of Maine. Seas of 4 feet continue over the S waters
mainly due to swell from continued storm activity off the Mid-
Atlantic.

Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...

Sat and Sun...High confidence.
High pres moves over the waters with winds and seas expected to
remain below small craft thresholds.

Mon and Tue...Moderate confidence.
Winds and seas remain below small craft thresholds for the most part
except a few gusts near 20 kt near shore each afternoon. Some fog
possible across the waters during the AM hours.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Doody/Sipprell
NEAR TERM...Doody
SHORT TERM...Sipprell
LONG TERM...Doody
AVIATION...Doody/Sipprell/EVT
MARINE...Doody/Sipprell/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 232325
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
725 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains influential over New England through the
weekend. Expect a warming trend which will continue into Monday
with showers and thunderstorms possible Tuesday. More seasonable
weather is expected late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
7 PM Update...
More widespread clearing across SRN New England this evening
partially as shearing vort max shifts S of the region. This will
tend toward clearing skies but noted temps running a bit warmer
than previously forecast. Therefore, only changes were to bring in
more widespread clear skies later tonight and raise mins just a
shade. Still think it will be cool overall, with many places
dropping into the lower 50s before rising again.

Previous discussion...

High pressure settling in as a frontal boundary pushes offshore.
Beneath, cyclonic flow aloft through which mid-level vortex energy
rotates. Perhaps convergence and lift along the front / sea-breeze
coupled with mid-level forcing will yield a spot shower for areas
S of the N CT border towards the S-coast, Cape and Islands? HRRR
seems to suggest and just evaluating the synoptics can not rule
out as we go towards evening. Will prevail with slight chance PoPs.
Closely watching activity out of PA attendant with a mid level
vortex out of the E Great Lakes. Could be just enough of a kicker
up on the low level lift generated by the boundary.

A bigger question is how quickly will dry air move in? Low 60
dewpoints lingering S and E beneath a stabilizing boundary layer
beneath which moisture will pool. Scattered nuisance low clouds
over Nantucket at around 300 feet are likely to expand along and
ahead of the front, most likely as far N as the S-coastline of MA
and RI. Should see improvement and clearing towards morning. Can
not rule out the potential of fog, mainly and mostly a repeat of
soupy conditions on Nantucket.

Otherwise a mild evening as it was warmer earlier in the day. Light
winds across the interior with low dewpoints. Not ruling out
radiational cooling and locations could fall back into the 40s for
lows.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Friday...

High pressure in control. Light winds. Beneath cooler air aloft with
H85 temperatures around +10C. But considering the high angle of the
sun, should easily warm back up into the upper-70s to low-80s.
Cooler along the coasts with expected sea-breezes. Dry and
comfortable as dewpoints will range in the 40s to low-50s.

Friday night...

High pressure pushes E. Begin to see return E/SE flow albeit
remaining light. Mostly clear, an opportunity for radiational
cooling and will need to watch those areas with sandy soils in
particular. Leaned cooler of the forecast guidance, mainly towards
MOS. Of greater attention is interior Southeast MA and Marthas
Vineyard which could fall into the 40s. Progged presently in the
low-50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Highlights...

 * Warming into Monday
 * Some showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
 * More seasonable WX late week

Overview and model preferences...

Continuance of the nearly zonal flow across the northern CONUS on
the periphery of the cutoff anticyclone across the southern tier
suggests any particular energy/vortex to weaken some upstream. In
fact the building ridge which will bring about this weekend`s heat
is mostly a response to downstream trof development. Given we
remain on the anticyclonic shear side of this zonal flow, the
quiet trend looks to continue for the most part. The only issue is
an opening wave which will traverse this flow and arrive by Tue,
this is currently linked to the PACNW vortex and will gradually
open/weaken as it approaches New England. Otherwise, warmer than
normal temperatures, with generally modest dwpts will define the
next week. Not enough difference in the deterministic guidance
even by mid next week to stray too far from a blend for this
forecast update.

Details...

Sat and Sun...

The primary issue for the weekend will be the heat potential. H85
temps rising to between +12C and +14C should easily be mixed to,
providing at least mid-upper 80s, however, with a modified airmass
and some hint at downslope component to the isallobaric flow,
expect a few places to see the low 90s each day before all is said
and done. Gradient winds remain light but out of the SSW, cooling
RI and SE MA. E coastal sea breezes possible as gradient aloft
likely not strong enough to keep it fully offshore.

Mon...

Chance for a very warm day as return flow develops with high pres
moving E. H85 temps reach near +18C by afternoon. May be some
convective cloud debris from the W to contend with but otherwise,
full mixing expected with temps away from the south coast potentially
rising into the 90s with dwpts increasing to the low 60s. Low risk
for leftover convective shra by evening, but the best theta-e
ridging remains to the W per latest runs. Also to watch, dwpts
will run very close to crossover with S coastal SSTs, so will need
to watch for marine fog/stratus impacts.

Tue and Tue evening...

With wave opening and shifting the low more meridionally approaching
cold front is expected to slow as it reaches New England. Timing
of this feature will once again be key to impacts, as an afternoon
FROPA definitely suggests higher convective risk than an early AM
or late evening passage. At this time, modest cooling aloft suggests
MU CAPE values potentially exceeding 1500j/kg with sfc based values
closer to 1000j/kg. Not a true EML it appears as lapse rates will
only reach about 6.0 or slightly higher. Shear not impressive either
as the mid lvl flow remains relatively weak. Therefore, primary
risk would be heavy rain if any storms form. More to come as we
approach.

Wed and Thu...

Similar setup to this week. Cold front stalls offshore and how close
it sits will ultimately determine whether any MCS or developing
frontal wave could impact Srn New England. High pres to the N
looks to keep it too far S at this time thanks to some phasing of
the initial trof with a secondary Hudson Bay trof late week. This
suggests temps closer to seasonal normals, but a continuation of
the dry wx.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Friday Night/...High Confidence.

No major changes with 00Z TAF update...

Tonight...
VFR for all terminals but the S-coast, Cape and Islands. IFR to
LIFR cigs mainly with potential for fog over ACK. Anticipating a
near-repeat of conditions the previous night over ACK. Cigs 300 to
500 ft agl.

Friday...

VFR. Light winds. Sea-breezes developing along the coasts towards
mid-morning.

Friday night...

Patchy MVFR-LIFR conditions with fog. Lower CT River Valley,
interior non-urban locations, perhaps along the S-coast. Light
winds.

KBOS TAF...VFR. E winds back out of the N overnight before
becoming E again through Friday.

KBDL TAF...concern with respect to Friday night into Saturday
morning with potential fog issues. Otherwise VFR and light winds.

Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...High confidence.

Sat and Sun...
VFR. Light winds mainly E and SE. Sea breezes expected.

Mon and Tue...
Mainly VFR. Low risk for early AM fog with localized IFR conditions.
Some showers and thundershowers, especially Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Friday Night/...High confidence.

Tonight...

Low clouds and fog issues, perhaps a spot shower. N/NE winds
increasing as a weak frontal boundary pushes offshore and in
response to more active weather emerging off the Mid-Atlantic.
Gusts up to 20 kts possible.

Friday...

NE winds initially with gusts up to 20 kts diminishing while
turning E/SE as high pressure pushes across New England into the
Gulf of Maine. Waves begin to build of 4 feet on the outer waters
but much of this looks to be the result of swell subsequent of
storm activity emerging off the Mid-Atlantic.

Friday Night...

Light winds overall out of the E/NE with high pressure situated
over the Gulf of Maine. Seas of 4 feet continue over the S waters
mainly due to swell from continued storm activity off the Mid-
Atlantic.

Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...

Sat and Sun...High confidence.
High pres moves over the waters with winds and seas expected to
remain below small craft thresholds.

Mon and Tue...Moderate confidence.
Winds and seas remain below small craft thresholds for the most part
except a few gusts near 20 kt near shore each afternoon. Some fog
possible across the waters during the AM hours.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Doody/Sipprell
NEAR TERM...Doody/Sipprell
SHORT TERM...Sipprell
LONG TERM...Doody
AVIATION...Doody/Sipprell
MARINE...Doody/Sipprell




000
FXUS61 KBOX 232325
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
725 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains influential over New England through the
weekend. Expect a warming trend which will continue into Monday
with showers and thunderstorms possible Tuesday. More seasonable
weather is expected late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
7 PM Update...
More widespread clearing across SRN New England this evening
partially as shearing vort max shifts S of the region. This will
tend toward clearing skies but noted temps running a bit warmer
than previously forecast. Therefore, only changes were to bring in
more widespread clear skies later tonight and raise mins just a
shade. Still think it will be cool overall, with many places
dropping into the lower 50s before rising again.

Previous discussion...

High pressure settling in as a frontal boundary pushes offshore.
Beneath, cyclonic flow aloft through which mid-level vortex energy
rotates. Perhaps convergence and lift along the front / sea-breeze
coupled with mid-level forcing will yield a spot shower for areas
S of the N CT border towards the S-coast, Cape and Islands? HRRR
seems to suggest and just evaluating the synoptics can not rule
out as we go towards evening. Will prevail with slight chance PoPs.
Closely watching activity out of PA attendant with a mid level
vortex out of the E Great Lakes. Could be just enough of a kicker
up on the low level lift generated by the boundary.

A bigger question is how quickly will dry air move in? Low 60
dewpoints lingering S and E beneath a stabilizing boundary layer
beneath which moisture will pool. Scattered nuisance low clouds
over Nantucket at around 300 feet are likely to expand along and
ahead of the front, most likely as far N as the S-coastline of MA
and RI. Should see improvement and clearing towards morning. Can
not rule out the potential of fog, mainly and mostly a repeat of
soupy conditions on Nantucket.

Otherwise a mild evening as it was warmer earlier in the day. Light
winds across the interior with low dewpoints. Not ruling out
radiational cooling and locations could fall back into the 40s for
lows.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Friday...

High pressure in control. Light winds. Beneath cooler air aloft with
H85 temperatures around +10C. But considering the high angle of the
sun, should easily warm back up into the upper-70s to low-80s.
Cooler along the coasts with expected sea-breezes. Dry and
comfortable as dewpoints will range in the 40s to low-50s.

Friday night...

High pressure pushes E. Begin to see return E/SE flow albeit
remaining light. Mostly clear, an opportunity for radiational
cooling and will need to watch those areas with sandy soils in
particular. Leaned cooler of the forecast guidance, mainly towards
MOS. Of greater attention is interior Southeast MA and Marthas
Vineyard which could fall into the 40s. Progged presently in the
low-50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Highlights...

 * Warming into Monday
 * Some showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
 * More seasonable WX late week

Overview and model preferences...

Continuance of the nearly zonal flow across the northern CONUS on
the periphery of the cutoff anticyclone across the southern tier
suggests any particular energy/vortex to weaken some upstream. In
fact the building ridge which will bring about this weekend`s heat
is mostly a response to downstream trof development. Given we
remain on the anticyclonic shear side of this zonal flow, the
quiet trend looks to continue for the most part. The only issue is
an opening wave which will traverse this flow and arrive by Tue,
this is currently linked to the PACNW vortex and will gradually
open/weaken as it approaches New England. Otherwise, warmer than
normal temperatures, with generally modest dwpts will define the
next week. Not enough difference in the deterministic guidance
even by mid next week to stray too far from a blend for this
forecast update.

Details...

Sat and Sun...

The primary issue for the weekend will be the heat potential. H85
temps rising to between +12C and +14C should easily be mixed to,
providing at least mid-upper 80s, however, with a modified airmass
and some hint at downslope component to the isallobaric flow,
expect a few places to see the low 90s each day before all is said
and done. Gradient winds remain light but out of the SSW, cooling
RI and SE MA. E coastal sea breezes possible as gradient aloft
likely not strong enough to keep it fully offshore.

Mon...

Chance for a very warm day as return flow develops with high pres
moving E. H85 temps reach near +18C by afternoon. May be some
convective cloud debris from the W to contend with but otherwise,
full mixing expected with temps away from the south coast potentially
rising into the 90s with dwpts increasing to the low 60s. Low risk
for leftover convective shra by evening, but the best theta-e
ridging remains to the W per latest runs. Also to watch, dwpts
will run very close to crossover with S coastal SSTs, so will need
to watch for marine fog/stratus impacts.

Tue and Tue evening...

With wave opening and shifting the low more meridionally approaching
cold front is expected to slow as it reaches New England. Timing
of this feature will once again be key to impacts, as an afternoon
FROPA definitely suggests higher convective risk than an early AM
or late evening passage. At this time, modest cooling aloft suggests
MU CAPE values potentially exceeding 1500j/kg with sfc based values
closer to 1000j/kg. Not a true EML it appears as lapse rates will
only reach about 6.0 or slightly higher. Shear not impressive either
as the mid lvl flow remains relatively weak. Therefore, primary
risk would be heavy rain if any storms form. More to come as we
approach.

Wed and Thu...

Similar setup to this week. Cold front stalls offshore and how close
it sits will ultimately determine whether any MCS or developing
frontal wave could impact Srn New England. High pres to the N
looks to keep it too far S at this time thanks to some phasing of
the initial trof with a secondary Hudson Bay trof late week. This
suggests temps closer to seasonal normals, but a continuation of
the dry wx.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Friday Night/...High Confidence.

No major changes with 00Z TAF update...

Tonight...
VFR for all terminals but the S-coast, Cape and Islands. IFR to
LIFR cigs mainly with potential for fog over ACK. Anticipating a
near-repeat of conditions the previous night over ACK. Cigs 300 to
500 ft agl.

Friday...

VFR. Light winds. Sea-breezes developing along the coasts towards
mid-morning.

Friday night...

Patchy MVFR-LIFR conditions with fog. Lower CT River Valley,
interior non-urban locations, perhaps along the S-coast. Light
winds.

KBOS TAF...VFR. E winds back out of the N overnight before
becoming E again through Friday.

KBDL TAF...concern with respect to Friday night into Saturday
morning with potential fog issues. Otherwise VFR and light winds.

Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...High confidence.

Sat and Sun...
VFR. Light winds mainly E and SE. Sea breezes expected.

Mon and Tue...
Mainly VFR. Low risk for early AM fog with localized IFR conditions.
Some showers and thundershowers, especially Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Friday Night/...High confidence.

Tonight...

Low clouds and fog issues, perhaps a spot shower. N/NE winds
increasing as a weak frontal boundary pushes offshore and in
response to more active weather emerging off the Mid-Atlantic.
Gusts up to 20 kts possible.

Friday...

NE winds initially with gusts up to 20 kts diminishing while
turning E/SE as high pressure pushes across New England into the
Gulf of Maine. Waves begin to build of 4 feet on the outer waters
but much of this looks to be the result of swell subsequent of
storm activity emerging off the Mid-Atlantic.

Friday Night...

Light winds overall out of the E/NE with high pressure situated
over the Gulf of Maine. Seas of 4 feet continue over the S waters
mainly due to swell from continued storm activity off the Mid-
Atlantic.

Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...

Sat and Sun...High confidence.
High pres moves over the waters with winds and seas expected to
remain below small craft thresholds.

Mon and Tue...Moderate confidence.
Winds and seas remain below small craft thresholds for the most part
except a few gusts near 20 kt near shore each afternoon. Some fog
possible across the waters during the AM hours.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Doody/Sipprell
NEAR TERM...Doody/Sipprell
SHORT TERM...Sipprell
LONG TERM...Doody
AVIATION...Doody/Sipprell
MARINE...Doody/Sipprell




000
FXUS61 KBOX 231942
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
342 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure remains influential over New England through the
weekend. Expect a warming trend which will continue into Monday
with showers and thunderstorms possible Tuesday. More seasonable
weather is expected late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

High pressure settling in as a frontal boundary pushes offshore.
Beneath, cyclonic flow aloft through which mid-level vortex energy
rotates. Perhaps convergence and lift along the front / sea-breeze
coupled with mid-level forcing will yield a spot shower for areas
S of the N CT border towards the S-coast, Cape and Islands? HRRR
seems to suggest and just evaluating the synoptics can not rule
out as we go towards evening. Will prevail with slight chance PoPs.
Closely watching activity out of PA attendant with a mid level
vortex out of the E Great Lakes. Could be just enough of a kicker
up on the low level lift generated by the boundary.

A bigger question is how quickly will dry air move in? Low 60
dewpoints lingering S and E beneath a stabilizing boundary layer
beneath which moisture will pool. Scattered nuisance low clouds
over Nantucket at around 300 feet are likely to expand along and
ahead of the front, most likely as far N as the S-coastline of MA
and RI. Should see improvement and clearing towards morning. Can
not rule out the potential of fog, mainly and mostly a repeat of
soupy conditions on Nantucket.

Otherwise a mild evening as it was warmer earlier in the day. Light
winds across the interior with low dewpoints. Not ruling out
radiational cooling and locations could fall back into the 40s for
lows.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

Friday...

High pressure in control. Light winds. Beneath cooler air aloft with
H85 temperatures around +10C. But considering the high angle of the
sun, should easily warm back up into the upper-70s to low-80s.
Cooler along the coasts with expected sea-breezes. Dry and
comfortable as dewpoints will range in the 40s to low-50s.

Friday night...

High pressure pushes E. Begin to see return E/SE flow albeit
remaining light. Mostly clear, an opportunity for radiational
cooling and will need to watch those areas with sandy soils in
particular. Leaned cooler of the forecast guidance, mainly towards
MOS. Of greater attention is interior Southeast MA and Marthas
Vineyard which could fall into the 40s. Progged presently in the
low-50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Highlights...

 * Warming into Monday
 * Some showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
 * More seasonable WX late week

Overview and model preferences...

Continuance of the nearly zonal flow across the northern CONUS on
the periphery of the cutoff anticyclone across the southern tier
suggests any particular energy/vortex to weaken some upstream. In
fact the building ridge which will bring about this weekend`s heat
is mostly a response to downstream trof development. Given we
remain on the anticyclonic shear side of this zonal flow, the
quiet trend looks to continue for the most part. The only issue is
an opening wave which will traverse this flow and arrive by Tue,
this is currently linked to the PACNW vortex and will gradually
open/weaken as it approaches New England. Otherwise, warmer than
normal temperatures, with generally modest dwpts will define the
next week. Not enough difference in the deterministic guidance
even by mid next week to stray too far from a blend for this
forecast update.

Details...

Sat and Sun...

The primary issue for the weekend will be the heat potential. H85
temps rising to between +12C and +14C should easily be mixed to,
providing at least mid-upper 80s, however, with a modified airmass
and some hint at downslope component to the isallobaric flow,
expect a few places to see the low 90s each day before all is said
and done. Gradient winds remain light but out of the SSW, cooling
RI and SE MA. E coastal sea breezes possible as gradient aloft
likely not strong enough to keep it fully offshore.

Mon...

Chance for a very warm day as return flow develops with high pres
moving E. H85 temps reach near +18C by afternoon. May be some
convective cloud debris from the W to contend with but otherwise,
full mixing expected with temps away from the south coast potentially
rising into the 90s with dwpts increasing to the low 60s. Low risk
for leftover convective shra by evening, but the best theta-e
ridging remains to the W per latest runs. Also to watch, dwpts
will run very close to crossover with S coastal SSTs, so will need
to watch for marine fog/stratus impacts.

Tue and Tue evening...

With wave opening and shifting the low more meridionally approaching
cold front is expected to slow as it reaches New England. Timing
of this feature will once again be key to impacts, as an afternoon
FROPA definitely suggests higher convective risk than an early AM
or late evening passage. At this time, modest cooling aloft suggests
MU CAPE values potentially exceeding 1500j/kg with sfc based values
closer to 1000j/kg. Not a true EML it appears as lapse rates will
only reach about 6.0 or slightly higher. Shear not impressive either
as the mid lvl flow remains relatively weak. Therefore, primary
risk would be heavy rain if any storms form. More to come as we
approach.

Wed and Thu...

Similar setup to this week. Cold front stalls offshore and how close
it sits will ultimately determine whether any MCS or developing
frontal wave could impact Srn New England. High pres to the N
looks to keep it too far S at this time thanks to some phasing of
the initial trof with a secondary Hudson Bay trof late week. This
suggests temps closer to seasonal normals, but a continuation of
the dry wx.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Friday Night/...High Confidence.

Through 0z...

SCT SHRA possible S of the N CT border. Low-end VFR impacts.
Otherwise VFR with SCT-BKN LIFR over ACK.

Tonight...

VFR for all terminals but the S-coast, Cape and Islands. IFR to
LIFR cigs mainly with potential for fog over ACK. Anticipating a
near-repeat of conditions the previous night over ACK. Cigs 300 to
500 ft agl.

Friday...

VFR. Light winds. Sea-breezes developing along the coasts towards
mid-morning.

Friday night...

Patchy MVFR-LIFR conditions with fog. Lower CT River Valley,
interior non-urban locations, perhaps along the S-coast. Light
winds.

KBOS TAF...VFR. E winds back out of the N overnight before
becoming E again through Friday.

KBDL TAF...concern with respect to Friday night into Saturday
morning with potential fog issues. Otherwise VFR and light winds.

Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...High confidence.

Sat and Sun...
VFR. Light winds mainly E and SE. Sea breezes expected.

Mon and Tue...
Mainly VFR. Low risk for early AM fog with localized IFR conditions.
Some showers and thundershowers, especially Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...

Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Friday Night/...High confidence.

Tonight...

Low clouds and fog issues, perhaps a spot shower. N/NE winds
increasing as a weak frontal boundary pushes offshore and in
response to more active weather emerging off the Mid-Atlantic.
Gusts up to 20 kts possible.

Friday...

NE winds initially with gusts up to 20 kts diminishing while
turning E/SE as high pressure pushes across New England into the
Gulf of Maine. Waves begin to build of 4 feet on the outer waters
but much of this looks to be the result of swell subsequent of
storm activity emerging off the Mid-Atlantic.

Friday Night...

Light winds overall out of the E/NE with high pressure situated
over the Gulf of Maine. Seas of 4 feet continue over the S waters
mainly due to swell from continued storm activity off the Mid-
Atlantic.

Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...

Sat and Sun...High confidence.
High pres moves over the waters with winds and seas expected to
remain below small craft thresholds.

Mon and Tue...Moderate confidence.
Winds and seas remain below small craft thresholds for the most part
except a few gusts near 20 kt near shore each afternoon. Some fog
possible across the waters during the AM hours.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Doody/Sipprell
NEAR TERM...Sipprell
SHORT TERM...Sipprell
LONG TERM...Doody
AVIATION...Doody/Sipprell
MARINE...Doody/Sipprell




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