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000
FXUS61 KBOX 230203
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1003 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM WILL BRING STRONG TO DAMAGING
WINDS IN HEAVY RAIN SQUALLS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS THE STORM
SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN
SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. DRY...SEASONABLE
WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

*** A POWERFUL EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM WILL BRING STRONG TO
 DAMAGING WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING ***

10 PM UPDATE...

VERY IMPRESSIVE/VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE-JET STREAK ROTATING AROUND A
MID LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND ADVECTING INTO SOUTHEAST MA
AND RI. ON THE NOSE OF SHORT WAVE AND DRY SLOT MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE ON THE ORDER OF 7C/KM PER SPC MESOANALYSIS AND THIS HAS
BEEN SUFFICIENT COMBINED WITH STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT /LFQ OF
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK/ TO YIELD NUMEROUS CONVECTION OVER EASTERN
CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA THIS EVENING. MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FIRING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT
AND ADVECTING NW INTO EASTERN MA AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHERN NH TOWARD
MORNING.

STRONG WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THIS CONVECTION GIVEN THE
STRONG LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST JET ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. THEREFORE HAVE EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY TO INCLUDE ALL
OF RI/EASTERN CT NORTHWARD INTO THE WORCESTER HILLS AND MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST MA. FARTHER WEST INTO CT RVR VLY OF CT AND MA WIND GUSTS
SHOULD BE NOT AS STRONG GIVEN CORE OF LOW LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN
FARTHER EAST OVER RI...EASTERN MA INTO SOUTHEAST NH. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE NEW CONVECTION SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SHOULD PIVOT NW INTO
EASTERN MA OVERNIGHT /POSSIBLY RI TOO/ AND THEN INTO SOUTHEAST NH
TOWARD MORNING. THUS HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THIS REGION. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

=============================================================

POTENT CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO INTENSIFY AS IT SLOWLY
LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST PASSING NEAR THE BENCHMARK ON THURSDAY.
GIVEN THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATIONS...WERE
EXPECTING A BREAK DOWN IN PRECIPITATION FIELDS THAT WE OFTEN SEE
DURING WINTER STORMS.

1) HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL:

IN A NUTSHELL...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION.  THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS TRYING TO LOCATE
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN BANDS WILL SET UP.  THERE ARE A LOT OF
MOVING PARTS TO THIS FORECAST...WHICH MAKES THIS A DIFFICULT TASK.

WE EXPECT HEAVY RAIN TO INITIALLY OVERSPREAD SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
AND WORK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING.
THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL THEN APPROACH SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND BY
LATE EVENING.  THIS MAY RESULT IN THE PRECIPITATION FIELD MORE
SCATTERED AT TIMES ACROSS SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OVERNIGHT...BUT ALSO
MORE CONVECTIVE GIVEN SOME ELEVATED CAPE. SO WHILE WE MAY SEE SOME
BREAKS IN THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.  IN ADDITION...WE PROBABLY WILL SEE A SUBTLE
COASTAL FRONT SET UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING SO SOME ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE.

WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR A SECOND AREA OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE/BACK BENT WARM
FRONT.  LOCATION OF THIS IS TRICKY BUT PERHAPS FURTHER BACK INTO
THE INTERIOR ACROSS  SOUTHERN NH AND EAST SLOPES OF BERKSHIRES?

FINALLY IN BETWEEN THE TWO BANDS OF HEAVIEST RAIN THERE WILL LIKELY
BE A MINIMUM.  SO BASICALLY...A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2.50 INCHES OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT LOCALIZED 4+ INCH AMOUNTS
ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ACROSS A PORTION OF THE REGION.  WILL JUST
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS OVERNIGHT AND
FINE TUNE OUR QPF FORECAST.  THE FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING IF THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE REALIZED.

2) TIMING:

HEAVY RAIN OVER SPREADS THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING.  PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE MORNING RUSH HOUR.  ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND NEAR THE DRY SLOT.  THE STEADIEST
RAIN SHOULD BE OVER BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE.

3) STRONG WIND POTENTIAL:

NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET OVER 50 KNOTS WILL IMPINGE ON EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  IN FACT...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOWING SOME PRETTY IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS BELOW 1000 FEET.  THE
UNCERTAINTY IS THAT AN INVERSION WILL ATTEMPT TO KEEP THE STRONGEST
WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK.  HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN BANDS MAY BE ABLE TO
PULL BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS TO THE GROUND.  THE WIND ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR NORTHEAST MA INTO COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY.  PROBLEMS
MAY BE EXACERBATED GIVEN THE MANY FULLY LEAFED TREES...RESULTING IN
SOME DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND EVEN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.  THERE
IS THE CHANCE THAT THE WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER
NORTHWEST...BUT AGAIN ITS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH WIND WILL MIX DOWN.
THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID MORNING ON THURSDAY AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET WEAKENS.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
* SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO QUEBEC
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERALL THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MESOSCALE DETAILS BUT
OTHERWISE THEY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.  AFTER THE COASTAL STORM
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE REGION MOVES AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...THE WEATHER STARTS TO DRY OUT AND BECOME MORE SEASONABLE.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION AND EACH OF THESE MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS WITH THEM.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE GULF
OF MAINE AND THEN THE MARITIMES FRIDAY.  WHILE THE BULK OF THE RAIN
WILL BE ENDING BY THURSDAY NIGHT...COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS.
HOWEVER...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY FRIDAY BRINGING
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.  OVERALL EXPECT DRIER WEATHER
AND A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND INTO THE MARITIMES.
THE MODELS DON/T SHOW A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE OR A BIG WIND SHIFT
WITH THIS FRONT BUT WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS. THE GFS HAS A
STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET THAN THE ECMWF WHICH COULD ENHANCE THE AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL BUT THERE IS STILL MUCH TO BE SEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER.  TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TO CLIMB AND MAY WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC MAY BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT BUT PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN.  ISOLATED THUNDER LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST
MA...WITH 50 KT GUSTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...INCLUDING AT
KBOS. LLWS WILL ALSO AFFECT SOME OF THE AREA FOR A TIME.

THURSDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  IFR CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE
TO LOW END MVFR THRESHOLDS IN THE INTERIOR...BUT NOT MUCH
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED ON THE COAST.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED AND THERE WILL REMAIN THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST PART OF
THE DAY.

KBOS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS UP
TO 50 KNOTS TONIGHT.

KBDL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS MAY BRING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS BUT OVERALL A SLOW IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR EXPECTED.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

***20 FOOT SEAS AND STORM FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS CONTINUE
 INTO THURSDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS WATERS***

LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF
40 TO 50 KNOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS WATERS INCLUDING
BOSTON HARBOR THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING. STRONG WINDS AND LONG NORTHEAST FETCH WILL RESULT IN
20 FOOT SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS WATERS.
GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  8 TO 11 FOOT SEAS WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES.  NORTHEAST
WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KTS WILL DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST.  VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AFTER A BRIEF LULL...SEAS
AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
WATERS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DESPITE RATHER LOW ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES LATE TONIGHT AND
AGAIN MIDDAY THURSDAY...OPTED TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR A PORTION OF THE EASTERN MA COAST. THIS IS MAINLY FOR THE AREA
NORTH OF CAPE ANN AND THE SCITUATE AREA. A LONG DURATION OF
NORTHEAST WINDS COMBINED WITH 15 TO 20 FOOT SEAS ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN MA WATERS MAY YIELD POCKETS OF SPLASH OVER AND POCKETS OF
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL FLOOD EVENT...BUT FELT IT WAS WORTH AN ADVISORY.

IN ADDITION...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION ALONG
THE EXPOSED BEACHES FROM SALISBURY TO PLUM ISLAND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR CTZ004.
MA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ007-014>016-
     019.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-013>022-
     026.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ007-019.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ005-006-012-013-
     017-018-020-021.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NHZ012-015.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NHZ012.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ231>237-254>256.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ230.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK/NOCERA
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 230203
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1003 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM WILL BRING STRONG TO DAMAGING
WINDS IN HEAVY RAIN SQUALLS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS THE STORM
SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN
SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. DRY...SEASONABLE
WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

*** A POWERFUL EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM WILL BRING STRONG TO
 DAMAGING WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING ***

10 PM UPDATE...

VERY IMPRESSIVE/VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE-JET STREAK ROTATING AROUND A
MID LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND ADVECTING INTO SOUTHEAST MA
AND RI. ON THE NOSE OF SHORT WAVE AND DRY SLOT MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE ON THE ORDER OF 7C/KM PER SPC MESOANALYSIS AND THIS HAS
BEEN SUFFICIENT COMBINED WITH STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT /LFQ OF
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK/ TO YIELD NUMEROUS CONVECTION OVER EASTERN
CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA THIS EVENING. MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FIRING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT
AND ADVECTING NW INTO EASTERN MA AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHERN NH TOWARD
MORNING.

STRONG WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THIS CONVECTION GIVEN THE
STRONG LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST JET ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. THEREFORE HAVE EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY TO INCLUDE ALL
OF RI/EASTERN CT NORTHWARD INTO THE WORCESTER HILLS AND MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST MA. FARTHER WEST INTO CT RVR VLY OF CT AND MA WIND GUSTS
SHOULD BE NOT AS STRONG GIVEN CORE OF LOW LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN
FARTHER EAST OVER RI...EASTERN MA INTO SOUTHEAST NH. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE NEW CONVECTION SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SHOULD PIVOT NW INTO
EASTERN MA OVERNIGHT /POSSIBLY RI TOO/ AND THEN INTO SOUTHEAST NH
TOWARD MORNING. THUS HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THIS REGION. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

=============================================================

POTENT CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO INTENSIFY AS IT SLOWLY
LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST PASSING NEAR THE BENCHMARK ON THURSDAY.
GIVEN THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATIONS...WERE
EXPECTING A BREAK DOWN IN PRECIPITATION FIELDS THAT WE OFTEN SEE
DURING WINTER STORMS.

1) HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL:

IN A NUTSHELL...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION.  THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS TRYING TO LOCATE
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN BANDS WILL SET UP.  THERE ARE A LOT OF
MOVING PARTS TO THIS FORECAST...WHICH MAKES THIS A DIFFICULT TASK.

WE EXPECT HEAVY RAIN TO INITIALLY OVERSPREAD SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
AND WORK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING.
THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL THEN APPROACH SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND BY
LATE EVENING.  THIS MAY RESULT IN THE PRECIPITATION FIELD MORE
SCATTERED AT TIMES ACROSS SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OVERNIGHT...BUT ALSO
MORE CONVECTIVE GIVEN SOME ELEVATED CAPE. SO WHILE WE MAY SEE SOME
BREAKS IN THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.  IN ADDITION...WE PROBABLY WILL SEE A SUBTLE
COASTAL FRONT SET UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING SO SOME ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE.

WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR A SECOND AREA OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE/BACK BENT WARM
FRONT.  LOCATION OF THIS IS TRICKY BUT PERHAPS FURTHER BACK INTO
THE INTERIOR ACROSS  SOUTHERN NH AND EAST SLOPES OF BERKSHIRES?

FINALLY IN BETWEEN THE TWO BANDS OF HEAVIEST RAIN THERE WILL LIKELY
BE A MINIMUM.  SO BASICALLY...A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2.50 INCHES OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT LOCALIZED 4+ INCH AMOUNTS
ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ACROSS A PORTION OF THE REGION.  WILL JUST
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS OVERNIGHT AND
FINE TUNE OUR QPF FORECAST.  THE FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING IF THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE REALIZED.

2) TIMING:

HEAVY RAIN OVER SPREADS THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING.  PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE MORNING RUSH HOUR.  ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND NEAR THE DRY SLOT.  THE STEADIEST
RAIN SHOULD BE OVER BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE.

3) STRONG WIND POTENTIAL:

NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET OVER 50 KNOTS WILL IMPINGE ON EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  IN FACT...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOWING SOME PRETTY IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS BELOW 1000 FEET.  THE
UNCERTAINTY IS THAT AN INVERSION WILL ATTEMPT TO KEEP THE STRONGEST
WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK.  HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN BANDS MAY BE ABLE TO
PULL BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS TO THE GROUND.  THE WIND ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR NORTHEAST MA INTO COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY.  PROBLEMS
MAY BE EXACERBATED GIVEN THE MANY FULLY LEAFED TREES...RESULTING IN
SOME DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND EVEN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.  THERE
IS THE CHANCE THAT THE WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER
NORTHWEST...BUT AGAIN ITS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH WIND WILL MIX DOWN.
THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID MORNING ON THURSDAY AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET WEAKENS.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
* SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO QUEBEC
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERALL THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MESOSCALE DETAILS BUT
OTHERWISE THEY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.  AFTER THE COASTAL STORM
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE REGION MOVES AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...THE WEATHER STARTS TO DRY OUT AND BECOME MORE SEASONABLE.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION AND EACH OF THESE MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS WITH THEM.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE GULF
OF MAINE AND THEN THE MARITIMES FRIDAY.  WHILE THE BULK OF THE RAIN
WILL BE ENDING BY THURSDAY NIGHT...COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS.
HOWEVER...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY FRIDAY BRINGING
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.  OVERALL EXPECT DRIER WEATHER
AND A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND INTO THE MARITIMES.
THE MODELS DON/T SHOW A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE OR A BIG WIND SHIFT
WITH THIS FRONT BUT WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS. THE GFS HAS A
STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET THAN THE ECMWF WHICH COULD ENHANCE THE AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL BUT THERE IS STILL MUCH TO BE SEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER.  TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TO CLIMB AND MAY WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC MAY BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT BUT PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN.  ISOLATED THUNDER LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST
MA...WITH 50 KT GUSTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...INCLUDING AT
KBOS. LLWS WILL ALSO AFFECT SOME OF THE AREA FOR A TIME.

THURSDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  IFR CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE
TO LOW END MVFR THRESHOLDS IN THE INTERIOR...BUT NOT MUCH
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED ON THE COAST.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED AND THERE WILL REMAIN THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST PART OF
THE DAY.

KBOS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS UP
TO 50 KNOTS TONIGHT.

KBDL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS MAY BRING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS BUT OVERALL A SLOW IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR EXPECTED.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

***20 FOOT SEAS AND STORM FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS CONTINUE
 INTO THURSDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS WATERS***

LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF
40 TO 50 KNOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS WATERS INCLUDING
BOSTON HARBOR THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING. STRONG WINDS AND LONG NORTHEAST FETCH WILL RESULT IN
20 FOOT SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS WATERS.
GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  8 TO 11 FOOT SEAS WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES.  NORTHEAST
WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KTS WILL DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST.  VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AFTER A BRIEF LULL...SEAS
AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
WATERS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DESPITE RATHER LOW ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES LATE TONIGHT AND
AGAIN MIDDAY THURSDAY...OPTED TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR A PORTION OF THE EASTERN MA COAST. THIS IS MAINLY FOR THE AREA
NORTH OF CAPE ANN AND THE SCITUATE AREA. A LONG DURATION OF
NORTHEAST WINDS COMBINED WITH 15 TO 20 FOOT SEAS ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN MA WATERS MAY YIELD POCKETS OF SPLASH OVER AND POCKETS OF
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL FLOOD EVENT...BUT FELT IT WAS WORTH AN ADVISORY.

IN ADDITION...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION ALONG
THE EXPOSED BEACHES FROM SALISBURY TO PLUM ISLAND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR CTZ004.
MA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ007-014>016-
     019.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-013>022-
     026.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ007-019.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ005-006-012-013-
     017-018-020-021.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NHZ012-015.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NHZ012.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ231>237-254>256.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ230.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK/NOCERA
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 222326
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
726 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS COAST.  SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS THE STORM
SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN
SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. DRY...SEASONABLE
WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*** WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
  THURSDAY MORNING ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
  THE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS COAST ***

730 PM UPDATE...WINDS HAVE INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH GUSTS UP TO 51 MPH AT LOGAN AIRPORT IN BOSTON.
THEREFORE...HAVE UPGRADED THE WIND ADVISORY TO A HIGH WIND WARNING
FOR THE IMMEDIATE MASSACHUSETTS COAST FROM PLYMOUTH UP TO ESSEX
COUNTY. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE ESSEX COUNTY COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. FURTHER INLAND...HAVE
KEPT THE WIND ADVISORY AS IS BUT WE ARE RECEIVING REPORTS OF
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THROUGHOUT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BECAUSE OF
THE FULLY LEAVED TREES...THE HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE MORE
LIKELY TO DO DAMAGE TO TREES AND POWER LINES.

RAIN HAS OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN
CURRENTLY ACROSS CONNECTICUT...RHODE ISLAND...AND PARTS OF
SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. EXPECT THESE HEAVIER BANDS TO CONTINUE
TO ROTATE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE COASTAL LOW GETS CLOSER
TO THE COAST.

MAIN UPDATES WITH THIS PACKAGE WERE TO THE WINDS AND THE HAZARDS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS RIGHT ON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

POTENT CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO INTENSIFY AS IT SLOWLY
LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST PASSING NEAR THE BENCHMARK ON THURSDAY.
GIVEN THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATIONS...WERE
EXPECTING A BREAK DOWN IN PRECIPITATION FIELDS THAT WE OFTEN SEE
DURING WINTER STORMS.

1) HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL:

IN A NUTSHELL...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION.  THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS TRYING TO LOCATE
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN BANDS WILL SET UP.  THERE ARE A LOT OF
MOVING PARTS TO THIS FORECAST...WHICH MAKES THIS A DIFFICULT TASK.

WE EXPECT HEAVY RAIN TO INITIALLY OVERSPREAD SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
AND WORK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING.
THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL THEN APPROACH SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND BY
LATE EVENING.  THIS MAY RESULT IN THE PRECIPITATION FIELD MORE
SCATTERED AT TIMES ACROSS SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OVERNIGHT...BUT ALSO
MORE CONVECTIVE GIVEN SOME ELEVATED CAPE. SO WHILE WE MAY SEE SOME
BREAKS IN THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.  IN ADDITION...WE PROBABLY WILL SEE A SUBTLE
COASTAL FRONT SET UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING SO SOME ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE.

WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR A SECOND AREA OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE/BACK BENT WARM
FRONT.  LOCATION OF THIS IS TRICKY BUT PERHAPS FURTHER BACK INTO
THE INTERIOR ACROSS  SOUTHERN NH AND EAST SLOPES OF BERKSHIRES?

FINALLY IN BETWEEN THE TWO BANDS OF HEAVIEST RAIN THERE WILL LIKELY
BE A MINIMUM.  SO BASICALLY...A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2.50 INCHES OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT LOCALIZED 4+ INCH AMOUNTS
ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ACROSS A PORTION OF THE REGION.  WILL JUST
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS OVERNIGHT AND
FINE TUNE OUR QPF FORECAST.  THE FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING IF THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE REALIZED.

2) TIMING:

HEAVY RAIN OVER SPREADS THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING.  PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE MORNING RUSH HOUR.  ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND NEAR THE DRY SLOT.  THE STEADIEST
RAIN SHOULD BE OVER BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE.

3) STRONG WIND POTENTIAL:

NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET OVER 50 KNOTS WILL IMPINGE ON EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  IN FACT...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOWING SOME PRETTY IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS BELOW 1000 FEET.  THE
UNCERTAINTY IS THAT AN INVERSION WILL ATTEMPT TO KEEP THE STRONGEST
WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK.  HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN BANDS MAY BE ABLE TO
PULL BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS TO THE GROUND.  THE WIND ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR NORTHEAST MA INTO COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY.  PROBLEMS
MAY BE EXACERBATED GIVEN THE MANY FULLY LEAFED TREES...RESULTING IN
SOME DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND EVEN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.  THERE
IS THE CHANCE THAT THE WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER
NORTHWEST...BUT AGAIN ITS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH WIND WILL MIX DOWN.
THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID MORNING ON THURSDAY AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET WEAKENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
* SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO QUEBEC
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERALL THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MESOSCALE DETAILS BUT
OTHERWISE THEY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.  AFTER THE COASTAL STORM
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE REGION MOVES AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...THE WEATHER STARTS TO DRY OUT AND BECOME MORE SEASONABLE.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION AND EACH OF THESE MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS WITH THEM.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE GULF
OF MAINE AND THEN THE MARITIMES FRIDAY.  WHILE THE BULK OF THE RAIN
WILL BE ENDING BY THURSDAY NIGHT...COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS.
HOWEVER...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY FRIDAY BRINGING
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.  OVERALL EXPECT DRIER WEATHER
AND A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND INTO THE MARITIMES.
THE MODELS DON/T SHOW A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE OR A BIG WIND SHIFT
WITH THIS FRONT BUT WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS. THE GFS HAS A
STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET THAN THE ECMWF WHICH COULD ENHANCE THE AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL BUT THERE IS STILL MUCH TO BE SEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER.  TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TO CLIMB AND MAY WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC MAY BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT BUT PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN.  ISOLATED THUNDER LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST
MA...WITH 50 KT GUSTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...INCLUDING AT
KBOS. LLWS WILL ALSO AFFECT SOME OF THE AREA FOR A TIME.

THURSDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  IFR CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE
TO LOW END MVFR THRESHOLDS IN THE INTERIOR...BUT NOT MUCH
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED ON THE COAST.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED AND THERE WILL REMAIN THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST PART OF
THE DAY.

KBOS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS UP
TO 50 KNOTS TONIGHT.

KBDL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS MAY BRING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS BUT OVERALL A SLOW IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR EXPECTED.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

***20 FOOT SEAS AND STORM FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS CONTINUE
 INTO THURSDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS WATERS***

LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF
40 TO 50 KNOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS WATERS INCLUDING
BOSTON HARBOR THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING. STRONG WINDS AND LONG NORTHEAST FETCH WILL RESULT IN
20 FOOT SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS WATERS.
GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  8 TO 11 FOOT SEAS WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES.  NORTHEAST
WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KTS WILL DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST.  VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AFTER A BRIEF LULL...SEAS
AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
WATERS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DESPITE RATHER LOW ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES LATE TONIGHT AND
AGAIN MIDDAY THURSDAY...OPTED TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR A PORTION OF THE EASTERN MA COAST. THIS IS MAINLY FOR THE AREA
NORTH OF CAPE ANN AND THE SCITUATE AREA. A LONG DURATION OF
NORTHEAST WINDS COMBINED WITH 15 TO 20 FOOT SEAS ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN MA WATERS MAY YIELD POCKETS OF SPLASH OVER AND POCKETS OF
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL FLOOD EVENT...BUT FELT IT WAS WORTH AN ADVISORY.

IN ADDITION...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION ALONG
THE EXPOSED BEACHES FROM SALISBURY TO PLUM ISLAND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ007-014>016-
     019.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-013>022-
     026.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ007-019.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ005-006.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NHZ012-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ231>237-254>256.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ230.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...FRANK/RLG




000
FXUS61 KBOX 222029
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
429 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS COAST.  SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS THE STORM
SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN
SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. DRY...SEASONABLE
WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR AND SHORT TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY/...

*** WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
  THURSDAY MORNING ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
  THE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS COAST ***

POTENT CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO INTENSIFY AS IT
SLOWLY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST PASSING NEAR THE BENCHMARK ON
THURSDAY.  GIVEN THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS CLOSED MID LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS...WERE EXPECTING A BREAK DOWN IN PRECIPITATION FIELDS
THAT WE OFTEN SEE DURING WINTER STORMS.

1) HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL:

IN A NUTSHELL...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION.  THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS TRYING TO LOCATE
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN BANDS WILL SET UP.  THERE ARE A LOT OF
MOVING PARTS TO THIS FORECAST...WHICH MAKES THIS A DIFFICULT TASK.

WE EXPECT HEAVY RAIN TO INITIALLY OVERSPREAD SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
AND WORK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING.
THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL THEN APPROACH SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND BY
LATE EVENING.  THIS MAY RESULT IN THE PRECIPITATION FIELD MORE
SCATTERED AT TIMES ACROSS SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OVERNIGHT...BUT ALSO
MORE CONVECTIVE GIVEN SOME ELEVATED CAPE. SO WHILE WE MAY SEE SOME
BREAKS IN THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.  IN ADDITION...WE PROBABLY WILL SEE A SUBTLE
COASTAL FRONT SET UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING SO SOME ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE.

WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR A SECOND AREA OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE/BACK BENT WARM
FRONT.  LOCATION OF THIS IS TRICKY BUT PERHAPS FURTHER BACK INTO
THE INTERIOR ACROSS  SOUTHERN NH AND EAST SLOPES OF BERKSHIRES?

FINALLY IN BETWEEN THE TWO BANDS OF HEAVIEST RAIN THERE WILL LIKELY
BE A MINIMUM.  SO BASICALLY...A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2.50 INCHES OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT LOCALIZED 4+ INCH AMOUNTS
ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ACROSS A PORTION OF THE REGION.  WILL JUST
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS OVERNIGHT AND
FINE TUNE OUR QPF FORECAST.  THE FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING IF THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE REALIZED.

2) TIMING:

HEAVY RAIN OVER SPREADS THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING.  PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE MORNING RUSH HOUR.  ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND NEAR THE DRY SLOT.  THE STEADIEST
RAIN SHOULD BE OVER BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE.

3) STRONG WIND POTENTIAL:

NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET OVER 50 KNOTS WILL IMPINGE ON EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  IN FACT...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOWING SOME PRETTY IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS BELOW 1000 FEET.  THE
UNCERTAINTY IS THAT AN INVERSION WILL ATTEMPT TO KEEP THE STRONGEST
WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK.  HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN BANDS MAY BE ABLE TO
PULL BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS TO THE GROUND.  THE WIND ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR NORTHEAST MA INTO COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY.  PROBLEMS
MAY BE EXACERBATED GIVEN THE MANY FULLY LEAFED TREES...RESULTING IN
SOME DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND EVEN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.  THERE
IS THE CHANCE THAT THE WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER
NORTHWEST...BUT AGAIN ITS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH WIND WILL MIX DOWN.
THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID MORNING ON THURSDAY AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET WEAKENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
* SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO QUEBEC
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERALL THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MESOSCALE DETAILS BUT
OTHERWISE THEY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.  AFTER THE COASTAL STORM
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE REGION MOVES AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...THE WEATHER STARTS TO DRY OUT AND BECOME MORE SEASONABLE.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION AND EACH OF THESE MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS WITH THEM.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE GULF
OF MAINE AND THEN THE MARITIMES FRIDAY.  WHILE THE BULK OF THE RAIN
WILL BE ENDING BY THURSDAY NIGHT...COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS.
HOWEVER...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY FRIDAY BRINGING
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.  OVERALL EXPECT DRIER WEATHER
AND A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND INTO THE MARITIMES.
THE MODELS DON/T SHOW A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE OR A BIG WIND SHIFT
WITH THIS FRONT BUT WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS. THE GFS HAS A
STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET THAN THE ECMWF WHICH COULD ENHANCE THE AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL BUT THERE IS STILL MUCH TO BE SEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER.  TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TO CLIMB AND MAY WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC MAY BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT BUT PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH MAINLY MVFR IN THE INTERIOR.  LIGHT RAIN AND AREAS OF
DRIZZLE WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY OVER SPREAD WESTERN SECTIONS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN.  ISOLATED THUNDER LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST
MA...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER IN ESSEX COUNTY.  LLWS WILL ALSO AFFECT
SOME OF THE AREA FOR A TIME.

THURSDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  IFR CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE
TO LOW END MVFR THRESHOLDS IN THE INTERIOR...BUT NOT MUCH
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED ON THE COAST.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED AND THERE WILL REMAIN THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST PART OF
THE DAY.

KBOS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS UP
TO 40 KNOTS TONIGHT.

KBDL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  A PERIOD OF LLWS IS
LIKELY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS MAY BRING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS BUT OVERALL A SLOW IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR EXPECTED.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

***20 FOOT SEAS AND GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS CONTINUE INTO
  THURSDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS WATERS***

LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 35
TO 45 KNOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS WATERS INCLUDING
BOSTON HARBOR THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.
STRONG WINDS AND LONG NORTHEAST FETCH WILL RESULT IN 20 FOOT
SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS WATERS. SCA
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS
THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN THE
ACTION OVERNIGHT INTO THU MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TEMPORARILY
WEAKENS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  8 TO 11 FOOT SEAS WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES.  NORTHEAST
WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KTS WILL DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST.  VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AFTER A BRIEF LULL...SEAS
AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
WATERS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DESPITE RATHER LOW ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES LATE
TONIGHT AND AGAIN MIDDAY THURSDAY...OPTED TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR A PORTION OF THE EASTERN MA COAST.  THIS IS MAINLY FOR
THE AREA NORTH OF CAPE ANN AND THE SCITUATE AREA.  A LONG DURATION
OF NORTHEAST WINDS COMBINED WITH 15 TO 20 FOOT SEAS ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN MA WATERS MAY YIELD POCKETS OF SPLASH OVER AND POCKETS OF
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.  CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL FLOOD EVENT...BUT FELT IT WAS WORTH AN ADVISORY.  IN
ADDITION...SOME BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY ALONG THE EXPOSED BEACHES OF
SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-013>022-
     026.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ005>007-014>016-
     019.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR MAZ007-019.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NHZ012-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ231>237.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ230.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...FRANK




000
FXUS61 KBOX 222029
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
429 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS COAST.  SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS THE STORM
SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN
SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. DRY...SEASONABLE
WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR AND SHORT TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY/...

*** WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
  THURSDAY MORNING ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
  THE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS COAST ***

POTENT CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO INTENSIFY AS IT
SLOWLY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST PASSING NEAR THE BENCHMARK ON
THURSDAY.  GIVEN THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS CLOSED MID LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS...WERE EXPECTING A BREAK DOWN IN PRECIPITATION FIELDS
THAT WE OFTEN SEE DURING WINTER STORMS.

1) HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL:

IN A NUTSHELL...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION.  THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS TRYING TO LOCATE
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN BANDS WILL SET UP.  THERE ARE A LOT OF
MOVING PARTS TO THIS FORECAST...WHICH MAKES THIS A DIFFICULT TASK.

WE EXPECT HEAVY RAIN TO INITIALLY OVERSPREAD SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
AND WORK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING.
THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL THEN APPROACH SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND BY
LATE EVENING.  THIS MAY RESULT IN THE PRECIPITATION FIELD MORE
SCATTERED AT TIMES ACROSS SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OVERNIGHT...BUT ALSO
MORE CONVECTIVE GIVEN SOME ELEVATED CAPE. SO WHILE WE MAY SEE SOME
BREAKS IN THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.  IN ADDITION...WE PROBABLY WILL SEE A SUBTLE
COASTAL FRONT SET UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING SO SOME ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE.

WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR A SECOND AREA OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE/BACK BENT WARM
FRONT.  LOCATION OF THIS IS TRICKY BUT PERHAPS FURTHER BACK INTO
THE INTERIOR ACROSS  SOUTHERN NH AND EAST SLOPES OF BERKSHIRES?

FINALLY IN BETWEEN THE TWO BANDS OF HEAVIEST RAIN THERE WILL LIKELY
BE A MINIMUM.  SO BASICALLY...A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2.50 INCHES OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT LOCALIZED 4+ INCH AMOUNTS
ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ACROSS A PORTION OF THE REGION.  WILL JUST
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS OVERNIGHT AND
FINE TUNE OUR QPF FORECAST.  THE FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING IF THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE REALIZED.

2) TIMING:

HEAVY RAIN OVER SPREADS THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING.  PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE MORNING RUSH HOUR.  ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND NEAR THE DRY SLOT.  THE STEADIEST
RAIN SHOULD BE OVER BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE.

3) STRONG WIND POTENTIAL:

NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET OVER 50 KNOTS WILL IMPINGE ON EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  IN FACT...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOWING SOME PRETTY IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS BELOW 1000 FEET.  THE
UNCERTAINTY IS THAT AN INVERSION WILL ATTEMPT TO KEEP THE STRONGEST
WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK.  HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN BANDS MAY BE ABLE TO
PULL BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS TO THE GROUND.  THE WIND ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR NORTHEAST MA INTO COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY.  PROBLEMS
MAY BE EXACERBATED GIVEN THE MANY FULLY LEAFED TREES...RESULTING IN
SOME DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND EVEN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.  THERE
IS THE CHANCE THAT THE WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER
NORTHWEST...BUT AGAIN ITS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH WIND WILL MIX DOWN.
THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID MORNING ON THURSDAY AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET WEAKENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
* SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO QUEBEC
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERALL THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MESOSCALE DETAILS BUT
OTHERWISE THEY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.  AFTER THE COASTAL STORM
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE REGION MOVES AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...THE WEATHER STARTS TO DRY OUT AND BECOME MORE SEASONABLE.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION AND EACH OF THESE MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS WITH THEM.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE GULF
OF MAINE AND THEN THE MARITIMES FRIDAY.  WHILE THE BULK OF THE RAIN
WILL BE ENDING BY THURSDAY NIGHT...COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS.
HOWEVER...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY FRIDAY BRINGING
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.  OVERALL EXPECT DRIER WEATHER
AND A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND INTO THE MARITIMES.
THE MODELS DON/T SHOW A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE OR A BIG WIND SHIFT
WITH THIS FRONT BUT WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS. THE GFS HAS A
STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET THAN THE ECMWF WHICH COULD ENHANCE THE AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL BUT THERE IS STILL MUCH TO BE SEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER.  TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TO CLIMB AND MAY WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC MAY BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT BUT PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH MAINLY MVFR IN THE INTERIOR.  LIGHT RAIN AND AREAS OF
DRIZZLE WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY OVER SPREAD WESTERN SECTIONS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN.  ISOLATED THUNDER LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST
MA...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER IN ESSEX COUNTY.  LLWS WILL ALSO AFFECT
SOME OF THE AREA FOR A TIME.

THURSDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  IFR CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE
TO LOW END MVFR THRESHOLDS IN THE INTERIOR...BUT NOT MUCH
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED ON THE COAST.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED AND THERE WILL REMAIN THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST PART OF
THE DAY.

KBOS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS UP
TO 40 KNOTS TONIGHT.

KBDL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  A PERIOD OF LLWS IS
LIKELY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS MAY BRING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS BUT OVERALL A SLOW IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR EXPECTED.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

***20 FOOT SEAS AND GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS CONTINUE INTO
  THURSDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS WATERS***

LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 35
TO 45 KNOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS WATERS INCLUDING
BOSTON HARBOR THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.
STRONG WINDS AND LONG NORTHEAST FETCH WILL RESULT IN 20 FOOT
SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS WATERS. SCA
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS
THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN THE
ACTION OVERNIGHT INTO THU MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TEMPORARILY
WEAKENS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  8 TO 11 FOOT SEAS WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES.  NORTHEAST
WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KTS WILL DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST.  VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AFTER A BRIEF LULL...SEAS
AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
WATERS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DESPITE RATHER LOW ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES LATE
TONIGHT AND AGAIN MIDDAY THURSDAY...OPTED TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR A PORTION OF THE EASTERN MA COAST.  THIS IS MAINLY FOR
THE AREA NORTH OF CAPE ANN AND THE SCITUATE AREA.  A LONG DURATION
OF NORTHEAST WINDS COMBINED WITH 15 TO 20 FOOT SEAS ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN MA WATERS MAY YIELD POCKETS OF SPLASH OVER AND POCKETS OF
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.  CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL FLOOD EVENT...BUT FELT IT WAS WORTH AN ADVISORY.  IN
ADDITION...SOME BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY ALONG THE EXPOSED BEACHES OF
SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-013>022-
     026.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ005>007-014>016-
     019.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR MAZ007-019.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NHZ012-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ231>237.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ230.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...FRANK




000
FXUS61 KBOX 221805
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
200 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A SOAKING WIND SWEPT RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
INTENSIFYING COASTAL STORM. SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS THE STORM
SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

11 AM UPDATE...

*** A WINDSWEPT SOAKING RAIN WITH POTENTIAL FLOODING BEGINS LATE TODAY
    AND CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND ***

PREVIOUS FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK.  AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL EXPAND ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON.  IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN SHIELD OF
HEAVY RAIN WILL WAIT UNTIL AFTER 4 OR 5 PM.  THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
THE LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS...WHICH SHOW THE SOAKING RAIN EXPANDING
ACROSS THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 4 AND 8 PM.

THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR
NORTHEAST MA.  THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET OF 50 KNOTS TONIGHT.  THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL ESSEX COUNTY.
GIVEN MANY FULLY LEAFED TREES...THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DOWNED TREE
LIMBS AND PERHAPS EVEN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WILL BE EXACERBATED
ESPECIALLY WHEN COMBINED WITH HEAVY RAIN.

AS FOR THE FLOOD WATCH...WE DID ADD SOUTHERN BRISTOL/PLYMOUTH
COUNTIES TO THE PREVIOUS WATCH.  THIS WAS DONE TO INCLUDE
FALL RIVER AND NEW BEDFORD...WHICH ARE PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE TO
URBAN FLOODING.  WHILE ODDS STILL FAVOR NORTHEAST MA RECEIVING THE
HEAVIEST RAIN...THERE ARE SILL A FEW WILD CARDS.  THE FIRST IS A
COASTAL FRONT THAT MAY RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA.  IN ADDITION...AS THE DRY SLOT APPROACHES
APPEARS ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP TO RESULT IN
CONVECTION AND PERHAPS LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THIS STORM WILL DELIVER A SOAKING RAIN TO THE
REGION.  HOWEVER...GIVEN CLOSED MID LEVEL CENTERS WE WILL SEE
BANDING SETUP LIKE WE OFTEN DO IN THE WINTER TIME.  THIS COMBINED
WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY...LIKELY RESULTING IN LOCALIZED HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAN WHAT THE MODELS ARE PROJECTING.  THE MAIN
UNCERTAINTY IS EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS SETS UP...BUT THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME FLOODING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...

STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH FORMING THE TROWAL MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
YIELDING STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT. IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL JET OF 50
TO 60 KT FROM THE GULF OF MAINE INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND PROVIDES
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS LOW LEVEL WARM ANOMALY
WILL COMBINE WITH COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
TO YIELD A DEEP LAYER OF MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS TO DEVELOP WITHIN
THE TROWAL AND INCREASE THE RISK FOR FLOODING.

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR A WIDESPREAD 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH RES MODELS SUCH AS THE W-ARW HAS UP TO 4" OF
RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN MA NORTHWEST-WARD INTO SOUTHERN NH. THESE
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRONG JET DYNAMICS AND
INSTABILITY ALOFT. IN ADDITION WILL LIKELY SEE SOME RAINFALL
ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE WORCESTER HILLS AND
MONADNOCKS. CONVERSELY MAY SEE SOME SHADOWING ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THIS HIGHER TERRAIN. GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES ALONG WITH RISK OF HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
CONVECTION AND FFG ONLY AROUND 3 INCHES WE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR
EASTERN MA AND SOUTHEAST NH.

IT WILL BE WINDY TONIGHT WITH NE WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
35 MPH...HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHEAST MA.

THURSDAY...

BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN WITHIN THE TROWAL WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
DURING THE MORNING. HOWEVER DRY SLOT SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
* LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRI
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
22.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE IS STARTING TO SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH NOT ONLY THE EXIT OF THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...BUT ALSO WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL ASSIST WITH THIS
SHIFT FOR THE WEEKEND. THE PREVIOUS DIFFERENCE IN TILT OF THIS
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN RESOLVED SOMEWHAT. WITH
OPERATIONAL RUNS NOW DISPLAYING A BIT OF A NEGATIVE TILT.
THEREFORE...GIVEN THIS BETTER AGREEMENT A GENERAL BLEND OF
OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SHOULD PROVIDE A GOOD BASELINE FOR THIS LONG
TERM UPDATE.

DEFINING THE LONG TERM...WILL INITIALLY BE THE EXITING CUTOFF AND
OCCLUSION. HOWEVER...AFTER BRIEF MESO-RIDGE YET ANOTHER ROBUST
WAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND.
THEREFORE...EXPECT AN UNSETTLED START TO THE LONG TERM...FOLLOWED
BY GRADUAL DRYING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...
THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL FINALLY FORCE THE
STALLED UPPER LVL CUTOFF AND SFC LOW PRES TO BEGIN A SHIFT INTO
THE MARITIMES DURING THIS PERIOD. THU NIGHT...CONTINUED -SHRA
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AS THE REMNANT WARM CONVEYER REMAINS JUST
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
AS WINDS TAKE ON A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT...SUCH THAT LESS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON FRI...WITH EVEN A FEW MORE
BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE. THEREFORE..EXPECT GRADUALLY DECREASING
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MINS STILL ON THE MILD SIDE AS DWPTS
REMAIN ELEVATED THU NIGHT...BUT HIGHS ON FRI MAY BE A BIT WARMER
THANKS TO DIMINISHING ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUD COVER. MAINLY UPPER
50S AND LOW 60S.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...
POTENTIAL FOR A MAINLY DRY PERIOD HERE IS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN THE FIRST SHORTWAVE...AND A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WAVE DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. MAINLY NW FLOW...WITH
TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS...IF NOT A BIT WARMER THANKS TO
H85 AVERAGING ABOUT +5C. MAY SEE SOME HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.

SAT NIGHT THRU SUN...
SECONDARY ROBUST BUT FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH LOW PRES
THROUGH QUEBEC...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE /EVEN UNDER
NW FLOW/ FOR SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FROPA. NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD OR PARTICULARLY HEAVY SHOWERS GIVEN THE DRY NW FLOW. IN
FACT...SRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
THANKS TO ENHANCED DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TOWARD THE S COAST.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN WITH THIS COLD FROPA...SO WILL
LEAN TEMPS TOWARD A COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGHS AND NEAR NORMAL LOWS.

MON AND TUE...
GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRES FINALLY IS ABLE
TO NOSE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE S. THIS ALLOWS GRADUAL WARMING
THROUGH THE COLUMN AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE WARMING MAY YIELD H85
TEMPS NEAR +14C BY TUE EVENING. THEREFORE...WILL LIKELY SEE ENOUGH
WARMING TO YIELD TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL...POSSIBLY THE UPPER
60S TO NEAR 70 BY TUE.

WED...
GUIDANCE DIFFERS HERE ON THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
YIELDING SOLUTIONS OF A PASSAGE DURING THE DAY ON WED...TO DURING
THE DAY ON THU. THEREFORE...MAY AT LEAST HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR A SHOWER WITH THIS FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH MAINLY MVFR IN THE INTERIOR.  LIGHT RAIN AND AREAS OF
DRIZZLE WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY OVER SPREAD WESTERN SECTIONS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN.  ISOLATED THUNDER LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST
MA...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER IN ESSEX COUNTY.  LLWS WILL ALSO AFFECT
SOME OF THE AREA FOR A TIME.

THURSDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  IFR CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE
TO LOW END MVFR THRESHOLDS IN THE INTERIOR...BUT NOT MUCH
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED ON THE COAST.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED AND THERE WILL REMAIN THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST PART OF
THE DAY.

KBOS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS UP
TO 40 KNOTS TONIGHT.

KBDL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.  A PERIOD OF LLWS IS
LIKELY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/FOG ARE
EXPECTED.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT.  MAINLY VFR AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE PREDOMINANTLY VFR. A PERIOD
OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED SHOWERS.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE DAY SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

***HIGH SEAS AND GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS LIKELY TODAY AND
  TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS ***

11 AM UPDATE...THE ONLY REAL CHANGE WAS TO UPGRADE BOSTON HARBOR
TO GALE WARNINGS BASED ON A STRONG NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET.

TODAY...NE GALES DEVELOP AROUND 15Z ACROSS THE CAPE ANN WATERS AND
CONTINUING THE REMINDER OF THE DAY. ELSEWHERE NE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE 20-25KT RANGE. HEAVY RAIN AND TSTMS ENTER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS THIS EVENING AND THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS OVERNIGHT.

TONIGHT...NE GALES LIKELY ACROSS CAPE ANN WATERS. SCA ELSEWHERE.
HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TSTM ALL WATERS.

THU...HEAVY RAIN AND SCT TSTMS EXIT THE WATERS BY MIDDAY. NE WINDS
OVER THE CAPE ANN WATERS SHOULD EASE DURING THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS ALL WATERS BUT
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND
25 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY FRI...WITH SEAS RANGING 5-9FT
/HIGHEST AROUND CAPE ANN/ AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BY FRI NIGHT.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER. ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER SRN WATERS OUT OF THE NW.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SEAS ONCE AGAIN INCREASE WITH SEAS REACHING 5-7 FT ON S
AND SE WATERS WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT OUT OF THE NW. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO BE NEEDED AGAIN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

DESPITE RATHER LOW ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES LATE
TONIGHT AND AGAIN MIDDAY THURSDAY...OPTED TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR A PORTION OF THE EASTERN MA COAST.  THIS IS MAINLY FOR
THE AREA NORTH OF CAPE ANN AND THE SCITUATE AREA.  A LONG DURATION
OF NORTHEAST WINDS COMBINED WITH 15 TO 20 FOOT SEAS ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN MA WATERS MAY YIELD POCKETS OF SPLASH OVER AND POCKETS OF
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.  CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL FLOOD EVENT...BUT FELT IT WAS WORTH AN ADVISORY.  IN
ADDITION...SOME BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY ALONG THE EXPOSED BEACHES OF
SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-013>021-026.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR MAZ007-019.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ005>007-014>016.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ012-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ231>235-
     237-254>256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...FRANK




000
FXUS61 KBOX 221500
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1100 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THIS MORNING WILL BE
REPLACED BY A SOAKING WIND SWEPT RAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON...TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN INTENSIFYING COASTAL
STORM. SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY
FROM NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

11 AM UPDATE...

*** A WINDSWEPT SOAKING RAIN WITH POTENTIAL FLOODING BEGINS LATE TODAY
    AND CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND ***

PREVIOUS FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK.  AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL EXPAND ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON.  IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN SHIELD OF
HEAVY RAIN WILL WAIT UNTIL AFTER 4 OR 5 PM.  THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
THE LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS...WHICH SHOW THE SOAKING RAIN EXPANDING
ACROSS THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 4 AND 8 PM.

THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR
NORTHEAST MA.  THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET OF 50 KNOTS TONIGHT.  THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL ESSEX COUNTY.
GIVEN MANY FULLY LEAFED TREES...THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DOWNED TREE
LIMBS AND PERHAPS EVEN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WILL BE EXACERBATED
ESPECIALLY WHEN COMBINED WITH HEAVY RAIN.

AS FOR THE FLOOD WATCH...WE DID ADD SOUTHERN BRISTOL/PLYMOUTH
COUNTIES TO THE PREVIOUS WATCH.  THIS WAS DONE TO INCLUDE
FALL RIVER AND NEW BEDFORD...WHICH ARE PARTICULARLY VULERNABLE TO
URBAN FLOODING.  WHILE ODDS STILL FAVOR NORTHEAST MA RECEIVING THE
HEAVIEST RAIN...THERE ARE SILL A FEW WILD CARDS.  THE FIRST IS A
COASTAL FRONT THAT MAY RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA.  IN ADDITION...AS THE DRY SLOT APPROACHES
APPEARS ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP TO RESULT IN
CONVECTION AND PERHAPS LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THIS STORM WILL DELIVER A SOAKING RAIN TO THE
REGION.  HOWEVER...GIVEN CLOSED MID LEVEL CENTERS WE WILL SEE
BANDING SETUP LIKE WE OFTEN DO IN THE WINTER TIME.  THIS COMBINED
WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY...LIKELY RESULTING IN LOCALIZED HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAN WHAT THE MODELS ARE PROJECTING.  THE MAIN
UNCERTAINTY IS EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS SETS UP...BUT THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME FLOODING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...

STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH FORMING THE TROWAL MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
YIELDING STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT. IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL JET OF 50
TO 60 KT FROM THE GULF OF MAINE INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND PROVIDES
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS LOW LEVEL WARM ANOMALY
WILL COMBINE WITH COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
TO YIELD A DEEP LAYER OF MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS TO DEVELOP WITHIN
THE TROWAL AND INCREASE THE RISK FOR FLOODING.

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR A WIDESPREAD 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH RES MODELS SUCH AS THE W-ARW HAS UP TO 4" OF
RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN MA NORTHWEST-WARD INTO SOUTHERN NH. THESE
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRONG JET DYNAMICS AND
INSTABILITY ALOFT. IN ADDITION WILL LIKELY SEE SOME RAINFALL
ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE WORCESTER HILLS AND
MONADNOCKS. CONVERSELY MAY SEE SOME SHADOWING ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THIS HIGHER TERRAIN. GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES ALONG WITH RISK OF HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
CONVECTION AND FFG ONLY AROUND 3 INCHES WE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR
EASTERN MA AND SOUTHEAST NH.

IT WILL BE WINDY TONIGHT WITH NE WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
35 MPH...HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHEAST MA.

THURSDAY...

BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN WITHIN THE TROWAL WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
DURING THE MORNING. HOWEVER DRY SLOT SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
* LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRI
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
22.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE IS STARTING TO SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH NOT ONLY THE EXIT OF THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...BUT ALSO WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL ASSIST WITH THIS
SHIFT FOR THE WEEKEND. THE PREVIOUS DIFFERENCE IN TILT OF THIS
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN RESOLVED SOMEWHAT. WITH
OPERATIONAL RUNS NOW DISPLAYING A BIT OF A NEGATIVE TILT.
THEREFORE...GIVEN THIS BETTER AGREEMENT A GENERAL BLEND OF
OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SHOULD PROVIDE A GOOD BASELINE FOR THIS LONG
TERM UPDATE.

DEFINING THE LONG TERM...WILL INITIALLY BE THE EXITING CUTOFF AND
OCCLUSION. HOWEVER...AFTER BRIEF MESO-RIDGE YET ANOTHER ROBUST
WAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND.
THEREFORE...EXPECT AN UNSETTLED START TO THE LONG TERM...FOLLOWED
BY GRADUAL DRYING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...
THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL FINALLY FORCE THE
STALLED UPPER LVL CUTOFF AND SFC LOW PRES TO BEGIN A SHIFT INTO
THE MARITIMES DURING THIS PERIOD. THU NIGHT...CONTINUED -SHRA
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AS THE REMNANT WARM CONVEYOR REMAINS JUST
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
AS WINDS TAKE ON A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT...SUCH THAT LESS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON FRI...WITH EVEN A FEW MORE
BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE. THEREFORE..EXPECT GRADUALLY DECREASING
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MINS STILL ON THE MILD SIDE AS DWPTS
REMAIN ELEVATED THU NIGHT...BUT HIGHS ON FRI MAY BE A BIT WARMER
THANKS TO DIMINISHING ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUD COVER. MAINLY UPPER
50S AND LOW 60S.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...
POTENTIAL FOR A MAINLY DRY PERIOD HERE IS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN THE FIRST SHORTWAVE...AND A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WAVE DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. MAINLY NW FLOW...WITH
TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS...IF NOT A BIT WARMER THANKS TO
H85 AVERAGING ABOUT +5C. MAY SEE SOME HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.

SAT NIGHT THRU SUN...
SECONDARY ROBUST BUT FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH LOW PRES
THROUGH QUEBEC...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE /EVEN UNDER
NW FLOW/ FOR SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FROPA. NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD OR PARTICULARLY HEAVY SHOWERS GIVEN THE DRY NW FLOW. IN
FACT...SRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
THANKS TO ENHANCED DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TOWARD THE S COAST.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN WITH THIS COLD FROPA...SO WILL
LEAN TEMPS TOWARD A COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGHS AND NEAR NORMAL LOWS.

MON AND TUE...
GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRES FINALLY IS ABLE
TO NOSE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE S. THIS ALLOWS GRADUAL WARMING
THROUGH THE COLUMN AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE WARMING MAY YIELD H85
TEMPS NEAR +14C BY TUE EVENING. THEREFORE...WILL LIKELY SEE ENOUGH
WARMING TO YIELD TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL...POSSIBLY THE UPPER
60S TO NEAR 70 BY TUE.

WED...
GUIDANCE DIFFERS HERE ON THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
YIELDING SOLUTIONS OF A PASSAGE DURING THE DAY ON WED...TO DURING
THE DAY ON THU. THEREFORE...MAY AT LEAST HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR A SHOWER WITH THIS FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON OVERALL TRENDS BUT LOWER ON EXACT
DETAILS INCLUDING TIMING.

TODAY...
CONDITIONS REMAIN MAINLY IFR/MVFR THROUGH THE DAY IN A MIX OF LOW
CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE/FOG. NE WINDS INCREASE TODAY WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT MAINLY E MA/RI WITH SOME GUSTS HIGHER ACROSS NE
MA. LLWS LIKELY AS LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST JET DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN
NH AND NORTHEAST MA. CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDER OVER RI AND
SOUTHEAST MA AFTER 21Z.

TONIGHT...IFR/LIFR IN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER.
LLWS ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL MA AND SOUTHERN NH. GUSTY NE WINDS
ESPECIALLY IN THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS.

THU...IFR/LIFR IN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN DURING THE MORNING THEN
TRENDING TOWARD MVFR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS HEAVY RAIN TAPERS
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. LLWS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING OVER SOUTHERN
NH AND CENTRAL-EASTERN MA.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
DETAILS. LLWS LIKELY AFTER 18Z AS STRONG NE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
AND PERSIST INTO THU AM.

KBDL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
DETAILS. LOW PROB OF LLWS TONIGHT INTO THU AM AS STRONG LOW LEVEL
NE JET DEVELOPS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/FOG ARE
EXPECTED.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT.  MAINLY VFR AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE PREDOMINANTLY VFR. A PERIOD
OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED SHOWERS.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE DAY SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

***HIGH SEAS AND GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS LIKELY TODAY AND
  TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS ***

11 AM UPDATE...THE ONLY REAL CHANGE WAS TO UPGRADE BOSTON HARBOR
TO GALE WARNINGS BASED ON A STRONG NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET.

TODAY...NE GALES DEVELOP AROUND 15Z ACROSS THE CAPE ANN WATERS AND
CONTINUING THE REMINDER OF THE DAY. ELSEWHERE NE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE 20-25KT RANGE. HEAVY RAIN AND TSTMS ENTER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS THIS EVENING AND THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS OVERNIGHT.

TONIGHT...NE GALES LIKELY ACROSS CAPE ANN WATERS. SCA ELSEWHERE.
HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TSTM ALL WATERS.

THU...HEAVY RAIN AND SCT TSTMS EXIT THE WATERS BY MIDDAY. NE WINDS
OVER THE CAPE ANN WATERS SHOULD EASE DURING THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS ALL WATERS BUT
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND
25 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY FRI...WITH SEAS RANGING 5-9FT
/HIGHEST AROUND CAPE ANN/ AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BY FRI NIGHT.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER. ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER SRN WATERS OUT OF THE NW.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SEAS ONCE AGAIN INCREASE WITH SEAS REACHING 5-7 FT ON S
AND SE WATERS WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT OUT OF THE NW. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO BE NEEDED AGAIN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
FORTUNATELY ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE RATHER LOW THIS WEEK.
THIS WILL LOWER THE RISK OF COASTAL FLOODING. HOWEVER NORTHEAST
GALES OVER THE CAPE ANN WATERS ALONG WITH THE DURATION OF ONSHORE
WINDS WILL YIELD A LOW RISK OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. ALTHOUGH
GIVEN THE LOWER WATER LEVELS EROSION IS MORE LIKELY GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS AND WAVES BATTERING THE COASTLINE. AGAIN
GREATEST RISK FOR EROSION IS ACROSS SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-013>021-026.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MAZ005>007-014>016.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ012-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ231>235-
     237-254>256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 221120
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
720 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THIS MORNING WILL BE
REPLACED BY A SOAKING WIND SWEPT RAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON...TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN INTENSIFYING COASTAL
STORM. SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY
FROM NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
*** A WINDSWEPT SOAKING RAIN WITH POTENTIAL FLOODING BEGINS LATER
  TODAY AND CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ***

7 AM UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THIS MORNING. MAIN CHANGES WERE TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS FROM E TO W THIS MORNING AS LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS BLOSSOMING ALONG DEVELOPING NELY LLJ AND
TROWAL. WILL LIKELY SEE THESE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON UNTIL STRONG
SHORTWAVE/DRY SLOT/INSTABILITY RESPONSIBLE FOR CONVECTION NEAR
NJ/NYC BEGINS TO ROTATE AROUND AND INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND LATE
TODAY. TRIED TO TIME POPS A BIT TOWARD THIS THINKING.
OTHERWISE...SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER AND LOW LVL MOISTURE ARE
LIKELY TO KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE TODAY. LOWERED THEM TOWARD
LATEST LAV AND BC GUIDANCE THINKING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

RELATIVELY QUIET THIS MORNING WITH ONLY PATCHY FOG AND SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE IMPACTING THE REGION. HOWEVER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATING IMPRESSIVE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION WITH A NEW WARM CONVEYOR
BELT DEVELOPING OFF THE DELAWARE COAST AND THEN WRAPPING
CYCLONICALLY BACK INTO NJ AND EASTERN PA...FORMING A TROWAL. THIS
AREA OF STRONG ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM
SOUTH OF NORTH BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z.

MEANWHILE THIS TROUGH AMPLIFICATION WILL RESULT IN A STRONG RESPONSE
AT THE SURFACE WITH LOW PRES OFF THE DELAWARE COAST INTENSIFYING
TODAY. AS A RESULT ONSHORE PGRAD WILL DEVELOP WITH A STRONG LOW
LEVEL NORTHEAST JET EVOLVING OVER THE EASTERN MA WATERS INTO MUCH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WINDSWEPT RAIN EVENT
LATER TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION ESPECIALLY EASTERN MA.

THE ONSET OF THE HEAVY RAIN /21Z-00Z/ WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE 2ND
HALF OF THE EVENING COMMUTE.

AS FOR TEMPS...NOT AS WARM AS YESTERDAY AS N-NE FLOW IS WELL
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...

STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH FORMING THE TROWAL MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
YIELDING STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT. IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL JET OF 50
TO 60 KT FROM THE GULF OF MAINE INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND PROVIDES
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS LOW LEVEL WARM ANOMALY
WILL COMBINE WITH COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
TO YIELD A DEEP LAYER OF MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS TO DEVELOP WITHIN
THE TROWAL AND INCREASE THE RISK FOR FLOODING.

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR A WIDESPREAD 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH RES MODELS SUCH AS THE W-ARW HAS UP TO 4" OF
RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN MA NORTHWEST-WARD INTO SOUTHERN NH. THESE
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRONG JET DYNAMICS AND
INSTABILITY ALOFT. IN ADDITION WILL LIKELY SEE SOME RAINFALL
ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE WORCESTER HILLS AND
MONADNOCKS. CONVERSELY MAY SEE SOME SHADOWING ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THIS HIGHER TERRAIN. GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES ALONG WITH RISK OF HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
CONVECTION AND FFG ONLY AROUND 3 INCHES WE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR
EASTERN MA AND SOUTHEAST NH.

IT WILL BE WINDY TONIGHT WITH NE WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
35 MPH...HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHEAST MA.

THURSDAY...

BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN WITHIN THE TROWAL WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
DURING THE MORNING. HOWEVER DRY SLOT SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
* LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRI
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
22.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE IS STARTING TO SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH NOT ONLY THE EXIT OF THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...BUT ALSO WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL ASSIST WITH THIS
SHIFT FOR THE WEEKEND. THE PREVIOUS DIFFERENCE IN TILT OF THIS
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN RESOLVED SOMEWHAT. WITH
OPERATIONAL RUNS NOW DISPLAYING A BIT OF A NEGATIVE TILT.
THEREFORE...GIVEN THIS BETTER AGREEMENT A GENERAL BLEND OF
OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SHOULD PROVIDE A GOOD BASELINE FOR THIS LONG
TERM UPDATE.

DEFINING THE LONG TERM...WILL INITIALLY BE THE EXITING CUTOFF AND
OCCLUSION. HOWEVER...AFTER BRIEF MESO-RIDGE YET ANOTHER ROBUST
WAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND.
THEREFORE...EXPECT AN UNSETTLED START TO THE LONG TERM...FOLLOWED
BY GRADUAL DRYING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...
THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL FINALLY FORCE THE
STALLED UPPER LVL CUTOFF AND SFC LOW PRES TO BEGIN A SHIFT INTO
THE MARITIMES DURING THIS PERIOD. THU NIGHT...CONTINUED -SHRA
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AS THE REMNANT WARM CONVEYOR REMAINS JUST
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
AS WINDS TAKE ON A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT...SUCH THAT LESS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON FRI...WITH EVEN A FEW MORE
BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE. THEREFORE..EXPECT GRADUALLY DECREASING
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MINS STILL ON THE MILD SIDE AS DWPTS
REMAIN ELEVATED THU NIGHT...BUT HIGHS ON FRI MAY BE A BIT WARMER
THANKS TO DIMINISHING ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUD COVER. MAINLY UPPER
50S AND LOW 60S.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...
POTENTIAL FOR A MAINLY DRY PERIOD HERE IS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN THE FIRST SHORTWAVE...AND A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WAVE DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. MAINLY NW FLOW...WITH
TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS...IF NOT A BIT WARMER THANKS TO
H85 AVERAGING ABOUT +5C. MAY SEE SOME HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.

SAT NIGHT THRU SUN...
SECONDARY ROBUST BUT FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH LOW PRES
THROUGH QUEBEC...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE /EVEN UNDER
NW FLOW/ FOR SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FROPA. NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD OR PARTICULARLY HEAVY SHOWERS GIVEN THE DRY NW FLOW. IN
FACT...SRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
THANKS TO ENHANCED DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TOWARD THE S COAST.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN WITH THIS COLD FROPA...SO WILL
LEAN TEMPS TOWARD A COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGHS AND NEAR NORMAL LOWS.

MON AND TUE...
GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRES FINALLY IS ABLE
TO NOSE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE S. THIS ALLOWS GRADUAL WARMING
THROUGH THE COLUMN AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE WARMING MAY YIELD H85
TEMPS NEAR +14C BY TUE EVENING. THEREFORE...WILL LIKELY SEE ENOUGH
WARMING TO YIELD TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL...POSSIBLY THE UPPER
60S TO NEAR 70 BY TUE.

WED...
GUIDANCE DIFFERS HERE ON THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
YIELDING SOLUTIONS OF A PASSAGE DURING THE DAY ON WED...TO DURING
THE DAY ON THU. THEREFORE...MAY AT LEAST HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR A SHOWER WITH THIS FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON OVERALL TRENDS BUT LOWER ON EXACT
DETAILS INCLUDING TIMING.

TODAY...
CONDITIONS REMAIN MAINLY IFR/MVFR THROUGH THE DAY IN A MIX OF LOW
CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE/FOG. NE WINDS INCREASE TODAY WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT MAINLY E MA/RI WITH SOME GUSTS HIGHER ACROSS NE
MA. LLWS LIKELY AS LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST JET DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN
NH AND NORTHEAST MA. CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDER OVER RI AND
SOUTHEAST MA AFTER 21Z.

TONIGHT...IFR/LIFR IN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER.
LLWS ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL MA AND SOUTHERN NH. GUSTY NE WINDS
ESPECIALLY IN THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS.

THU...IFR/LIFR IN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN DURING THE MORNING THEN
TRENDING TOWARD MVFR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS HEAVY RAIN TAPERS
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. LLWS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING OVER SOUTHERN
NH AND CENTRAL-EASTERN MA.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
DETAILS. LLWS LIKELY AFTER 18Z AS STRONG NE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
AND PERSIST INTO THU AM.

KBDL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
DETAILS. LOW PROB OF LLWS TONIGHT INTO THU AM AS STRONG LOW LEVEL
NE JET DEVELOPS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/FOG ARE
EXPECTED.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT.  MAINLY VFR AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE PREDOMINANTLY VFR. A PERIOD
OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED SHOWERS.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE DAY SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

***HIGH SEAS AND GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS LIKELY TODAY AND
  TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS ***

TODAY...NE GALES DEVELOP AROUND 15Z ACROSS THE CAPE ANN WATERS AND
CONTINUING THE REMINDER OF THE DAY. ELSEWHERE NE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE 20-25KT RANGE. HEAVY RAIN AND TSTMS ENTER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS THIS EVENING AND THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS OVERNIGHT.

TONIGHT...NE GALES LIKELY ACROSS CAPE ANN WATERS. SCA ELSEWHERE.
HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TSTM ALL WATERS.

THU...HEAVY RAIN AND SCT TSTMS EXIT THE WATERS BY MIDDAY. NE WINDS
OVER THE CAPE ANN WATERS SHOULD EASE DURING THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS ALL WATERS BUT
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND
25 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY FRI...WITH SEAS RANGING 5-9FT
/HIGHEST AROUND CAPE ANN/ AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BY FRI NIGHT.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER. ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER SRN WATERS OUT OF THE NW.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SEAS ONCE AGAIN INCREASE WITH SEAS REACHING 5-7 FT ON S
AND SE WATERS WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT OUT OF THE NW. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO BE NEEDED AGAIN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
FORTUNATELY ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE RATHER LOW THIS WEEK.
THIS WILL LOWER THE RISK OF COASTAL FLOODING. HOWEVER NORTHEAST
GALES OVER THE CAPE ANN WATERS ALONG WITH THE DURATION OF ONSHORE
WINDS WILL YIELD A LOW RISK OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. ALTHOUGH
GIVEN THE LOWER WATER LEVELS EROSION IS MORE LIKELY GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS AND WAVES BATTERING THE COASTLINE. AGAIN
GREATEST RISK FOR EROSION IS ACROSS SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-013>019-026.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ012-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DOODY
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 220828
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
428 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THIS MORNING WILL BE
REPLACED BY A SOAKING WIND SWEPT RAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON...TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN INTENSIFYING COASTAL
STORM. SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY
FROM NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
*** A WINDSWEPT SOAKING RAIN WITH POTENTIAL FLOODING BEGINS LATER
  TODAY AND CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ***

RELATIVELY QUIET THIS MORNING WITH ONLY PATCHY FOG AND SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE IMPACTING THE REGION. HOWEVER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATING IMPRESSIVE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION WITH A NEW WARM CONVEYOR
BELT DEVELOPING OFF THE DELAWARE COAST AND THEN WRAPPING
CYCLONICALLY BACK INTO NJ AND EASTERN PA...FORMING A TROWAL. THIS
AREA OF STRONG ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM
SOUTH OF NORTH BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z.

MEANWHILE THIS TROUGH AMPLIFICATION WILL RESULT IN A STRONG RESPONSE
AT THE SURFACE WITH LOW PRES OFF THE DELAWARE COAST INTENSIFYING
TODAY. AS A RESULT ONSHORE PGRAD WILL DEVELOP WITH A STRONG LOW
LEVEL NORTHEAST JET EVOLVING OVER THE EASTERN MA WATERS INTO MUCH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WINDSWEPT RAIN EVENT
LATER TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION ESPECIALLY EASTERN MA.

THE ONSET OF THE HEAVY RAIN /21Z-00Z/ WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE 2ND
HALF OF THE EVENING COMMUTE.

AS FOR TEMPS...NOT AS WARM AS YESTERDAY AS N-NE FLOW IS WELL
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...

STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH FORMING THE TROWAL MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
YIELDING STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT. IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL JET OF 50
TO 60 KT FROM THE GULF OF MAINE INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND PROVIDES
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS LOW LEVEL WARM ANOMALY
WILL COMBINE WITH COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
TO YIELD A DEEP LAYER OF MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS TO DEVELOP WITHIN
THE TROWAL AND INCREASE THE RISK FOR FLOODING.

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR A WIDESPREAD 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH RES MODELS SUCH AS THE W-ARW HAS UP TO 4" OF
RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN MA NORTHWEST-WARD INTO SOUTHERN NH. THESE
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRONG JET DYNAMICS AND
INSTABILITY ALOFT. IN ADDITION WILL LIKELY SEE SOME RAINFALL
ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE WORCESTER HILLS AND
MONADNOCKS. CONVERSELY MAY SEE SOME SHADOWING ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THIS HIGHER TERRAIN. GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES ALONG WITH RISK OF HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
CONVECTION AND FFG ONLY AROUND 3 INCHES WE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR
EASTERN MA AND SOUTHEAST NH.

IT WILL BE WINDY TONIGHT WITH NE WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
35 MPH...HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHEAST MA.

THURSDAY...

BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN WITHIN THE TROWAL WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
DURING THE MORNING. HOWEVER DRY SLOT SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

* LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRI
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
22.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE IS STARTING TO SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH NOT ONLY THE EXIT OF THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...BUT ALSO WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL ASSIST WITH THIS
SHIFT FOR THE WEEKEND. THE PREVIOUS DIFFERENCE IN TILT OF THIS
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN RESOLVED SOMEWHAT. WITH
OPERATIONAL RUNS NOW DISPLAYING A BIT OF A NEGATIVE TILT.
THEREFORE...GIVEN THIS BETTER AGREEMENT A GENERAL BLEND OF
OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SHOULD PROVIDE A GOOD BASELINE FOR THIS LONG
TERM UPDATE.

DEFINING THE LONG TERM...WILL INITIALLY BE THE EXITING CUTOFF AND
OCCLUSION. HOWEVER...AFTER BRIEF MESO-RIDGE YET ANOTHER ROBUST
WAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND.
THEREFORE...EXPECT AN UNSETTLED START TO THE LONG TERM...FOLLOWED
BY GRADUAL DRYING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...
THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL FINALLY FORCE THE
STALLED UPPER LVL CUTOFF AND SFC LOW PRES TO BEGIN A SHIFT INTO
THE MARITIMES DURING THIS PERIOD. THU NIGHT...CONTINUED -SHRA
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AS THE REMNANT WARM CONVEYOR REMAINS JUST
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
AS WINDS TAKE ON A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT...SUCH THAT LESS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON FRI...WITH EVEN A FEW MORE
BREAKS OF SUN POSSIBLE. THEREFORE..EXPECT GRADUALLY DECREASING
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MINS STILL ON THE MILD SIDE AS DWPTS
REMAIN ELEVATED THU NIGHT...BUT HIGHS ON FRI MAY BE A BIT WARMER
THANKS TO DIMINISHING ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUD COVER. MAINLY UPPER
50S AND LOW 60S.

FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...
POTENTIAL FOR A MAINLY DRY PERIOD HERE IS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN THE FIRST SHORTWAVE...AND A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WAVE DIVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. MAINLY NW FLOW...WITH
TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS...IF NOT A BIT WARMER THANKS TO
H85 AVERAGING ABOUT +5C. MAY SEE SOME HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.

SAT NIGHT THRU SUN...
SECONDARY ROBUST BUT FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH LOW PRES
THROUGH QUEBEC...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE /EVEN UNDER
NW FLOW/ FOR SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FROPA. NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD OR PARTICULARLY HEAVY SHOWERS GIVEN THE DRY NW FLOW. IN
FACT...SRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
THANKS TO ENHANCED DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TOWARD THE S COAST.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN WITH THIS COLD FROPA...SO WILL
LEAN TEMPS TOWARD A COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGHS AND NEAR NORMAL LOWS.

MON AND TUE...
GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRES FINALLY IS ABLE
TO NOSE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE S. THIS ALLOWS GRADUAL WARMING
THROUGH THE COLUMN AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE WARMING MAY YIELD H85
TEMPS NEAR +14C BY TUE EVENING. THEREFORE...WILL LIKELY SEE ENOUGH
WARMING TO YIELD TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL...POSSIBLY THE UPPER
60S TO NEAR 70 BY TUE.

WED...
GUIDANCE DIFFERS HERE ON THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
YIELDING SOLUTIONS OF A PASSAGE DURING THE DAY ON WED...TO DURING
THE DAY ON THU. THEREFORE...MAY AT LEAST HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR A SHOWER WITH THIS FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON OVERALL TRENDS BUT LOWER ON EXACT
DETAILS INCLUDING TIMING.

TODAY...IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND SPOTTY DRIZZLE THIS
MORNING SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR AS A STEADY RAIN MOVES ONSHORE AFTER
18Z. ALSO NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER
NORTHEAST MA INTO SOUTHEAST NH WHERE GUSTS UP TO 35 KT ARE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. LLWS LIKELY AS
LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST JET DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN NH AND NORTHEAST
MA. CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDER OVER RI AND SOUTHEAST MA AFTER 21Z.

TONIGHT...IFR/LIFR IN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER.
LLWS ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL MA AND SOUTHERN NH. GUSTY NE WINDS
ESPECIALLY IN THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS.

THU...IFR/LIFR IN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN DURING THE MORNING THEN
TRENDING TOWARD MVFR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS HEAVY RAIN TAPERS
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. LLWS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING OVER SOUTHERN
NH AND CENTRAL-EASTERN MA.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
DETAILS. LLWS LIKELY AFTER 18Z AS STRONG NE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
AND PERSIST INTO THU AM.

KBDL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
DETAILS. LOW PROB OF LLWS TONIGHT INTO THU AM AS STRONG LOW LEVEL
NE JET DEVELOPS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/FOG ARE
EXPECTED.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT.  MAINLY VFR AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE PREDOMINANTLY VFR. A PERIOD
OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED SHOWERS.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE DAY SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

***HIGH SEAS AND GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS LIKELY TODAY AND
  TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS ***

TODAY...NE GALES DEVELOP AROUND 15Z ACROSS THE CAPE ANN WATERS AND
CONTINUING THE REMINDER OF THE DAY. ELSEWHERE NE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE 20-25KT RANGE. HEAVY RAIN AND TSTMS ENTER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS THIS EVENING AND THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS OVERNIGHT.

TONIGHT...NE GALES LIKELY ACROSS CAPE ANN WATERS. SCA ELSEWHERE.
HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TSTM ALL WATERS.

THU...HEAVY RAIN AND SCT TSTMS EXIT THE WATERS BY MIDDAY. NE WINDS
OVER THE CAPE ANN WATERS SHOULD EASE DURING THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS ALL WATERS BUT
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND
25 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY FRI...WITH SEAS RANGING 5-9FT
/HIGHEST AROUND CAPE ANN/ AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BY FRI NIGHT.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER. ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER SRN WATERS OUT OF THE NW.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SEAS ONCE AGAIN INCREASE WITH SEAS REACHING 5-7 FT ON S
AND SE WATERS WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT OUT OF THE NW. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO BE NEEDED AGAIN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
FORTUNATELY ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE RATHER LOW THIS WEEK.
THIS WILL LOWER THE RISK OF COASTAL FLOODING. HOWEVER NORTHEAST
GALES OVER THE CAPE ANN WATERS ALONG WITH THE DURATION OF ONSHORE
WINDS WILL YIELD A LOW RISK OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. ALTHOUGH
GIVEN THE LOWER WATER LEVELS EROSION IS MORE LIKELY GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS AND WAVES BATTERING THE COASTLINE. AGAIN
GREATEST RISK FOR EROSION IS ACROSS SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     MAZ005>007-013>019-026.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     NHZ012-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 220621
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
221 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME A SOAKING WIND
SWEPT RAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A COASTAL STORM. SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS
THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

2 AM UPDATE...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. MOIST NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO YIELD LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND SPOTTY DRIZZLE. WIDESPREAD/APPRECIABLE
RAINFALL NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN COASTAL LOW
INTENSIFIES IN RESPONSE TO STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH AND TAKING AIM AT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

NE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOL/DAMP SIDE WITH READINGS IN THE
50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
***A SOAKING RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH THE
  HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS***

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY...AS MOIST ONSHORE
NORTHEAST FLOW INCREASES. THE WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WILL WAIT
UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE SOAKING RAIN WILL DEVELOP AS LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
CLOSED MID LEVEL CENTERS LIFTS NORTHEAST.  A STRONG EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
STRONG LIFT FOR A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT.  THE CORE OF THE
STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET WILL SETUP ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
ZONES...WHICH IS WHERE WE EXPECT THE HEAVIEST RAIN.  OVERALL...
EXPECT A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE OUR FAR NORTHEAST
ZONES...WHERE 2 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS SEEM REASONABLE.  THERE
IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME 4 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN OUR FAR
NORTHEAST ZONES...MAINLY IN ESSEX COUNTY.  IF THIS WERE TO
MATERIALIZE...WE MIGHT HAVE SOME FLOODING ISSUES DEPENDING ON HOW
FAST IT FALLS.  HOWEVER...SINCE ITS A LOW PROBABILITY AND A 3RD AND
4TH PERIOD EVENT DID NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THINGS CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY IF MODEL TRENDS
SLIDE THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY
INDICATED.  REGARDLESS...EXPECT TYPICAL NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE
STREET FLOODING ISSUES.

FINALLY...WE DID NOTE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATE WED INTO WED
NIGHT.  INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...BUT DO
NOT EXPECT ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
* LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL BRING RAIN THU
* LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRI
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND

OVERALL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH A COUPLE OF FEATURES AS WELL AS
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MESOSCALE DETAILS BUT THOSE ARE TO BE
EXPECTED.  THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE LONG DURATION COASTAL
STORM EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  AFTER THE COASTAL STORM MOVES AWAY FROM
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...THE WEATHER DRIES OUT AND BECOMES MORE
SEASONABLE.  UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OUT LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED.

THURSDAY...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO CONTINUE AS A COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES UP THE COAST TO MAINE.  AN ADDITIONAL
HALF TO INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA THURSDAY.  AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
AND THEN THE MARITIMES...EXPECT HIGHEST AMOUNTS TO OCCUR ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EAST COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS...PARTICULARLY ON CAPE COD AND
CAPE ANN WHERE RAIN WILL LAST THE LONGEST.  WITH THE HIGHER PWATS
AND LOW LEVEL JET STRONGEST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...EXPECT THE
HEAVIEST RAIN AND THE STRONGEST WINDS TO OCCUR THERE.  THE ONE
EXCEPTION COULD BE ALONG CAPE ANN WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OFF THE OCEAN.  COOL...ONSHORE FLOW AND OVERCAST
SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S DURING THE DAY
AND IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP
INTO THE MARITIMES BUT WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BRINGING
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.  OVERALL EXPECT DRIER WEATHER
AND A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS THE DAY GOES ON.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
NORTHEAST BUT HERE IS WHERE WE SEE SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS.  THE ECMWF HAS A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE THE GFS HAS A MORE NEUTRAL
UPPER TROUGH.  IN BOTH MODELS LOW PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL PULL A
COLD FRONT THROUGH AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT AND HAS MORE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT...RESULTING IN A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH
THE FRONT.  EXPECTING DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THEN SLIDES
SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC MAY BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.  ANOTHER CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE
WITH THIS FRONT BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON OVERALL TRENDS BUT LOWER ON EXACT
DETAILS INCLUDING TIMING.

TODAY...IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND SPOTTY DRIZZLE THIS
MORNING SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR AS A STEADY RAIN MOVES ONSHORE AFTER
18Z. ALSO NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER
NORTHEAST MA INTO SOUTHEAST NH WHERE GUSTS UP TO 35 KT ARE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. LLWS LIKELY AS
LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST JET DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN NH AND NORTHEAST
MA. CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDER OVER RI AND SOUTHEAST MA AFTER 21Z.

TONIGHT...IFR/LIFR IN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER.
LLWS ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL MA AND SOUTHERN NH. GUSTY NE WINDS
ESPECIALLY IN THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS.

THU...IFR/LIFR IN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN DURING THE MORNING THEN
TRENDING TOWARD MVFR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS HEAVY RAIN TAPERS
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. LLWS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING OVER SOUTHERN
NH AND CENTRAL-EASTERN MA.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
DETAILS. LLWS LIKELY AFTER 18Z AS STRONG NE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
AND PERSIST INTO THU AM.

KBDL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
DETAILS. LOW PROB OF LLWS TONIGHT INTO THU AM AS STRONG LOW LEVEL
NE JET DEVELOPS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...


FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED IN
CLEARING SKIES.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

***HIGH SEAS AND GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
  NIGHT ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST ATLANTIC WATERS***

945 PM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE
TOWARD MORNING ACROSS THE CAPE ANN WATERS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KT
POSSIBLE. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

======================================================================

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHEAST WATERS WHERE
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AS AN INTENSIFYING EASTERLY LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS.  AT THE SURFACE...SHOULD SEE NORTHEAST SCA WIND GUSTS
OVERSPREAD MOST OF OUR WATERS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.  THE CORE OF
THE STRONGEST JET WILL BE NORTH OUR WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  STILL
THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF NORTHEAST 35 KNOT WIND GUSTS ACROSS
OUT FAR NORTHEAST WATERS.  THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR
THIS LOCATION.  ALSO...SEAS MAY BUILD TO AROUND 15 FEET IN OUR
EXTREME NORTHEAST ATLANTIC WATERS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. 10 TO 15 FOOT SEAS ON THE NORTHEASTERN
WATERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...5 TO 10 FOOT SEAS ELSEWHERE WILL DO THE SAME.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 20 TO 25 KTS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY AS WELL.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MOST
WATERS FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE DAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER.
WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE SLOWLY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SEAS AND WINDS INCREASE GRADUALLY ON
THE SOUTHERN WATERS...BRIEFLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
FORTUNATELY ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE RATHER LOW OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS AND THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE TO OUR NORTH.
THEREFORE...THE RISK OF EVEN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS QUITE LOW.
HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION ALONG
THE SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND COASTS DURING THE HIGH TIDES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.  NO COASTAL FLOOD HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED
THOUGH FOR THIS UPCOMING EVENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ231>235-237.
     GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK/NOCERA/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 220143
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
943 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY WILL
TURN INTO A SOAKING RAIN LATER WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SHOWERS WILL
LINGER FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

930 PM UPDATE...

CLUSTER OF HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER OVER WESTERN
WORCESTER COUNTY HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED. THUS FLASH FLOOD WARNING
AND FLOOD ADVISORY HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. BIG DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN DUAL POL WHICH ESTIMATED A STORM TOTAL OF UP TO 5.9 INCHES
NEAR WARE...WHILE LEGACY MUCH LESS AT 2.9 INCHES. LEGACY MATCHES
UP BETTER WITH SURROUNDING RADARS AND IT PROBABLY MORE ACCURATE
THAN THE DUAL POL GIVEN THE LOW FREEZING LEVEL THIS EVENING /7
KFT/.

AS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER WESTERN PA WITH
MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THIS LARGE CIRCULATION. THIS
WILL TRANSLATE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. 00Z UPSTREAM SOUNDING
AT OKX LONG ISLAND INDICATES A VERY DEEP LAYER OF MOIST ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE RISK OF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURES
THESE NICELY SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

***A SOAKING RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH THE
  HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS***

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY...AS MOIST ONSHORE
NORTHEAST FLOW INCREASES. THE WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WILL WAIT
UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE SOAKING RAIN WILL DEVELOP AS LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
CLOSED MID LEVEL CENTERS LIFTS NORTHEAST.  A STRONG EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
STRONG LIFT FOR A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT.  THE CORE OF THE
STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET WILL SETUP ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
ZONES...WHICH IS WHERE WE EXPECT THE HEAVIEST RAIN.  OVERALL...
EXPECT A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE OUR FAR NORTHEAST
ZONES...WHERE 2 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS SEEM REASONABLE.  THERE
IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME 4 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN OUR FAR
NORTHEAST ZONES...MAINLY IN ESSEX COUNTY.  IF THIS WERE TO
MATERIALIZE...WE MIGHT HAVE SOME FLOODING ISSUES DEPENDING ON HOW
FAST IT FALLS.  HOWEVER...SINCE ITS A LOW PROBABILITY AND A 3RD AND
4TH PERIOD EVENT DID NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THINGS CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY IF MODEL TRENDS
SLIDE THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY
INDICATED.  REGARDLESS...EXPECT TYPICAL NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE
STREET FLOODING ISSUES.

FINALLY...WE DID NOTE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATE WED INTO WED
NIGHT.  INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...BUT DO
NOT EXPECT ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

* LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL BRING RAIN THU
* LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRI
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND

OVERALL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH A COUPLE OF FEATURES AS WELL AS
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MESOSCALE DETAILS BUT THOSE ARE TO BE
EXPECTED.  THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE LONG DURATION COASTAL
STORM EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  AFTER THE COASTAL STORM MOVES AWAY FROM
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...THE WEATHER DRIES OUT AND BECOMES MORE
SEASONABLE.  UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OUT LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED.

THURSDAY...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO CONTINUE AS A COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES UP THE COAST TO MAINE.  AN ADDITIONAL
HALF TO INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA THURSDAY.  AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
AND THEN THE MARITIMES...EXPECT HIGHEST AMOUNTS TO OCCUR ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EAST COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS...PARTICULARLY ON CAPE COD AND
CAPE ANN WHERE RAIN WILL LAST THE LONGEST.  WITH THE HIGHER PWATS
AND LOW LEVEL JET STRONGEST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...EXPECT THE
HEAVIEST RAIN AND THE STRONGEST WINDS TO OCCUR THERE.  THE ONE
EXCEPTION COULD BE ALONG CAPE ANN WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OFF THE OCEAN.  COOL...ONSHORE FLOW AND OVERCAST
SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S DURING THE DAY
AND IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP
INTO THE MARITIMES BUT WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BRINGING
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.  OVERALL EXPECT DRIER WEATHER
AND A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS THE DAY GOES ON.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
NORTHEAST BUT HERE IS WHERE WE SEE SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS.  THE ECMWF HAS A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE THE GFS HAS A MORE NEUTRAL
UPPER TROUGH.  IN BOTH MODELS LOW PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL PULL A
COLD FRONT THROUGH AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT AND HAS MORE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT...RESULTING IN A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH
THE FRONT.  EXPECTING DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THEN SLIDES
SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC MAY BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.  ANOTHER CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE
WITH THIS FRONT BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

930 PM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 00Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

=================================================================

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS GRADUALLY WILL LOWER TO
MVFR FROM EAST TO WEST TONIGHT.  WE THEN EXPECT FURTHER LOWERING TO
MAINLY IFR BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...BUT TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL EXPAND OVERNIGHT IN AREAS NORTH
OF THE MA TURNPIKE...BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE.  PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW
END MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN...SHOWERS
AND DRIZZLE WILL BE COMMON FOR THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES AND GRADUALLY EXPAND SOUTH.  WIDESPREAD MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED LATER WED INTO WED NIGHT.  NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS DEVELOP ON THE COAST WED NIGHT...BUT NEAR 30
KNOT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST MA COAST.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

KBDL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN RAIN AND
POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED THUNDER.  NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 TO 25 KTS
ACROSS S NH AND NE MA.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED IN
CLEARING SKIES.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

***HIGH SEAS AND GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
  NIGHT ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST ATLANTIC WATERS***

945 PM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE
TOWARD MORNING ACROSS THE CAPE ANN WATERS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KT
POSSIBLE. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

======================================================================

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHEAST WATERS WHERE
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AS AN INTENSIFYING EASTERLY LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS.  AT THE SURFACE...SHOULD SEE NORTHEAST SCA WIND GUSTS
OVERSPREAD MOST OF OUR WATERS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.  THE CORE OF
THE STRONGEST JET WILL BE NORTH OUR WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  STILL
THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF NORTHEAST 35 KNOT WIND GUSTS ACROSS
OUT FAR NORTHEAST WATERS.  THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR
THIS LOCATION.  ALSO...SEAS MAY BUILD TO AROUND 15 FEET IN OUR
EXTREME NORTHEAST ATLANTIC WATERS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. 10 TO 15 FOOT SEAS ON THE NORTHEASTERN
WATERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...5 TO 10 FOOT SEAS ELSEWHERE WILL DO THE SAME.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 20 TO 25 KTS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY AS WELL.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MOST
WATERS FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE DAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER.
WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE SLOWLY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SEAS AND WINDS INCREASE GRADUALLY ON
THE SOUTHERN WATERS...BRIEFLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
FORTUNATELY ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE RATHER LOW OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS AND THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE TO OUR NORTH.
THEREFORE...THE RISK OF EVEN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS QUITE LOW.
HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION ALONG
THE SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND COASTS DURING THE HIGH TIDES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.  NO COASTAL FLOOD HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED
THOUGH FOR THIS UPCOMING EVENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ231>235-237.
     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
     FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK/NOCERA/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 212257
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
657 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY WILL
TURN INTO A SOAKING RAIN LATER WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SHOWERS WILL
LINGER FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...ONE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS IS VERY NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER THE HAMPDEN/HAMPSHIRE/WORCESTER COUNTY BORDER. RADAR IS
ESTIMATING THAT THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS DROPPED 3 TO 5 INCHES
OF RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF PALMER...WARE...AND WARREN. HOWEVER...NO
REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED BY THE OFFICE OF RAINFALL OR FLOODING
AT THIS POINT. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE REGION IS DRY WITH A
FEW SHOWERS OVER LONG ISLAND AND THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.
OVERALL...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FROM THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE
WITH SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME DRIZZLE EXPANDING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT.

LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S. WE MAY
ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
***A SOAKING RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH THE
  HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS***

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY...AS MOIST ONSHORE
NORTHEAST FLOW INCREASES. THE WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WILL WAIT
UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE SOAKING RAIN WILL DEVELOP AS LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
CLOSED MID LEVEL CENTERS LIFTS NORTHEAST.  A STRONG EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
STRONG LIFT FOR A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT.  THE CORE OF THE
STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET WILL SETUP ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
ZONES...WHICH IS WHERE WE EXPECT THE HEAVIEST RAIN.  OVERALL...
EXPECT A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE OUR FAR NORTHEAST
ZONES...WHERE 2 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS SEEM REASONABLE.  THERE
IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME 4 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN OUR FAR
NORTHEAST ZONES...MAINLY IN ESSEX COUNTY.  IF THIS WERE TO
MATERIALIZE...WE MIGHT HAVE SOME FLOODING ISSUES DEPENDING ON HOW
FAST IT FALLS.  HOWEVER...SINCE ITS A LOW PROBABILITY AND A 3RD AND
4TH PERIOD EVENT DID NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THINGS CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY IF MODEL TRENDS
SLIDE THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY
INDICATED.  REGARDLESS...EXPECT TYPICAL NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE
STREET FLOODING ISSUES.

FINALLY...WE DID NOTE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATE WED INTO WED
NIGHT.  INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...BUT DO
NOT EXPECT ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
* LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL BRING RAIN THU
* LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRI
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND

OVERALL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH A COUPLE OF FEATURES AS WELL AS
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MESOSCALE DETAILS BUT THOSE ARE TO BE
EXPECTED.  THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE LONG DURATION COASTAL
STORM EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  AFTER THE COASTAL STORM MOVES AWAY FROM
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...THE WEATHER DRIES OUT AND BECOMES MORE
SEASONABLE.  UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OUT LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED.

THURSDAY...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO CONTINUE AS A COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES UP THE COAST TO MAINE.  AN ADDITIONAL
HALF TO INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA THURSDAY.  AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
AND THEN THE MARITIMES...EXPECT HIGHEST AMOUNTS TO OCCUR ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EAST COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS...PARTICULARLY ON CAPE COD AND
CAPE ANN WHERE RAIN WILL LAST THE LONGEST.  WITH THE HIGHER PWATS
AND LOW LEVEL JET STRONGEST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...EXPECT THE
HEAVIEST RAIN AND THE STRONGEST WINDS TO OCCUR THERE.  THE ONE
EXCEPTION COULD BE ALONG CAPE ANN WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OFF THE OCEAN.  COOL...ONSHORE FLOW AND OVERCAST
SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S DURING THE DAY
AND IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP
INTO THE MARITIMES BUT WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BRINGING
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.  OVERALL EXPECT DRIER WEATHER
AND A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS THE DAY GOES ON.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
NORTHEAST BUT HERE IS WHERE WE SEE SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS.  THE ECMWF HAS A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE THE GFS HAS A MORE NEUTRAL
UPPER TROUGH.  IN BOTH MODELS LOW PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL PULL A
COLD FRONT THROUGH AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT AND HAS MORE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT...RESULTING IN A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH
THE FRONT.  EXPECTING DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THEN SLIDES
SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC MAY BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.  ANOTHER CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE
WITH THIS FRONT BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS GRADUALLY WILL LOWER TO
MVFR FROM EAST TO WEST TONIGHT.  WE THEN EXPECT FURTHER LOWERING TO
MAINLY IFR BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...BUT TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL EXPAND OVERNIGHT IN AREAS NORTH
OF THE MA TURNPIKE...BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE.  PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW
END MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN...SHOWERS
AND DRIZZLE WILL BE COMMON FOR THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES AND GRADUALLY EXPAND SOUTH.  WIDESPREAD MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED LATER WED INTO WED NIGHT.  NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS DEVELOP ON THE COAST WED NIGHT...BUT NEAR 30
KNOT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST MA COAST.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

KBDL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN RAIN AND
POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED THUNDER.  NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 TO 25 KTS
ACROSS S NH AND NE MA.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED IN
CLEARING SKIES.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

***HIGH SEAS AND GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
  NIGHT ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST ATLANTIC WATERS***

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHEAST WATERS WHERE
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AS AN INTENSIFYING EASTERLY LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS.  AT THE SURFACE...SHOULD SEE NORTHEAST SCA WIND GUSTS
OVERSPREAD MOST OF OUR WATERS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.  THE CORE OF
THE STRONGEST JET WILL BE NORTH OUR WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  STILL
THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF NORTHEAST 35 KNOT WIND GUSTS ACROSS
OUT FAR NORTHEAST WATERS.  THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR
THIS LOCATION.  ALSO...SEAS MAY BUILD TO AROUND 15 FEET IN OUR
EXTREME NORTHEAST ATLANTIC WATERS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. 10 TO 15 FOOT SEAS ON THE NORTHEASTERN
WATERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...5 TO 10 FOOT SEAS ELSEWHERE WILL DO THE SAME.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 20 TO 25 KTS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY AS WELL.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MOST
WATERS FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE DAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER.
WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE SLOWLY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SEAS AND WINDS INCREASE GRADUALLY ON
THE SOUTHERN WATERS...BRIEFLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
FORTUNATELY ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE RATHER LOW OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS AND THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE TO OUR NORTH.
THEREFORE...THE RISK OF EVEN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS QUITE LOW.
HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION ALONG
THE SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND COASTS DURING THE HIGH TIDES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.  NO COASTAL FLOOD HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED
THOUGH FOR THIS UPCOMING EVENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ231>235-237.
     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
     FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 212257
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
657 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY WILL
TURN INTO A SOAKING RAIN LATER WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SHOWERS WILL
LINGER FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...ONE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS IS VERY NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER THE HAMPDEN/HAMPSHIRE/WORCESTER COUNTY BORDER. RADAR IS
ESTIMATING THAT THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS DROPPED 3 TO 5 INCHES
OF RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF PALMER...WARE...AND WARREN. HOWEVER...NO
REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED BY THE OFFICE OF RAINFALL OR FLOODING
AT THIS POINT. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE REGION IS DRY WITH A
FEW SHOWERS OVER LONG ISLAND AND THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.
OVERALL...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FROM THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE
WITH SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME DRIZZLE EXPANDING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT.

LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S. WE MAY
ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
***A SOAKING RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH THE
  HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS***

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY...AS MOIST ONSHORE
NORTHEAST FLOW INCREASES. THE WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WILL WAIT
UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE SOAKING RAIN WILL DEVELOP AS LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
CLOSED MID LEVEL CENTERS LIFTS NORTHEAST.  A STRONG EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
STRONG LIFT FOR A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT.  THE CORE OF THE
STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET WILL SETUP ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
ZONES...WHICH IS WHERE WE EXPECT THE HEAVIEST RAIN.  OVERALL...
EXPECT A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE OUR FAR NORTHEAST
ZONES...WHERE 2 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS SEEM REASONABLE.  THERE
IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME 4 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN OUR FAR
NORTHEAST ZONES...MAINLY IN ESSEX COUNTY.  IF THIS WERE TO
MATERIALIZE...WE MIGHT HAVE SOME FLOODING ISSUES DEPENDING ON HOW
FAST IT FALLS.  HOWEVER...SINCE ITS A LOW PROBABILITY AND A 3RD AND
4TH PERIOD EVENT DID NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THINGS CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY IF MODEL TRENDS
SLIDE THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY
INDICATED.  REGARDLESS...EXPECT TYPICAL NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE
STREET FLOODING ISSUES.

FINALLY...WE DID NOTE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATE WED INTO WED
NIGHT.  INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...BUT DO
NOT EXPECT ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
* LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL BRING RAIN THU
* LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRI
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND

OVERALL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH A COUPLE OF FEATURES AS WELL AS
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MESOSCALE DETAILS BUT THOSE ARE TO BE
EXPECTED.  THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE LONG DURATION COASTAL
STORM EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  AFTER THE COASTAL STORM MOVES AWAY FROM
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...THE WEATHER DRIES OUT AND BECOMES MORE
SEASONABLE.  UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OUT LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED.

THURSDAY...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO CONTINUE AS A COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES UP THE COAST TO MAINE.  AN ADDITIONAL
HALF TO INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA THURSDAY.  AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
AND THEN THE MARITIMES...EXPECT HIGHEST AMOUNTS TO OCCUR ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EAST COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS...PARTICULARLY ON CAPE COD AND
CAPE ANN WHERE RAIN WILL LAST THE LONGEST.  WITH THE HIGHER PWATS
AND LOW LEVEL JET STRONGEST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...EXPECT THE
HEAVIEST RAIN AND THE STRONGEST WINDS TO OCCUR THERE.  THE ONE
EXCEPTION COULD BE ALONG CAPE ANN WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OFF THE OCEAN.  COOL...ONSHORE FLOW AND OVERCAST
SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S DURING THE DAY
AND IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP
INTO THE MARITIMES BUT WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BRINGING
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.  OVERALL EXPECT DRIER WEATHER
AND A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS THE DAY GOES ON.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
NORTHEAST BUT HERE IS WHERE WE SEE SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS.  THE ECMWF HAS A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE THE GFS HAS A MORE NEUTRAL
UPPER TROUGH.  IN BOTH MODELS LOW PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL PULL A
COLD FRONT THROUGH AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT AND HAS MORE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT...RESULTING IN A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH
THE FRONT.  EXPECTING DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THEN SLIDES
SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC MAY BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.  ANOTHER CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE
WITH THIS FRONT BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS GRADUALLY WILL LOWER TO
MVFR FROM EAST TO WEST TONIGHT.  WE THEN EXPECT FURTHER LOWERING TO
MAINLY IFR BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...BUT TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL EXPAND OVERNIGHT IN AREAS NORTH
OF THE MA TURNPIKE...BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE.  PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW
END MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN...SHOWERS
AND DRIZZLE WILL BE COMMON FOR THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES AND GRADUALLY EXPAND SOUTH.  WIDESPREAD MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED LATER WED INTO WED NIGHT.  NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS DEVELOP ON THE COAST WED NIGHT...BUT NEAR 30
KNOT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST MA COAST.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

KBDL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN RAIN AND
POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED THUNDER.  NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 TO 25 KTS
ACROSS S NH AND NE MA.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED IN
CLEARING SKIES.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

***HIGH SEAS AND GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
  NIGHT ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST ATLANTIC WATERS***

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHEAST WATERS WHERE
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AS AN INTENSIFYING EASTERLY LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS.  AT THE SURFACE...SHOULD SEE NORTHEAST SCA WIND GUSTS
OVERSPREAD MOST OF OUR WATERS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.  THE CORE OF
THE STRONGEST JET WILL BE NORTH OUR WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  STILL
THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF NORTHEAST 35 KNOT WIND GUSTS ACROSS
OUT FAR NORTHEAST WATERS.  THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR
THIS LOCATION.  ALSO...SEAS MAY BUILD TO AROUND 15 FEET IN OUR
EXTREME NORTHEAST ATLANTIC WATERS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. 10 TO 15 FOOT SEAS ON THE NORTHEASTERN
WATERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...5 TO 10 FOOT SEAS ELSEWHERE WILL DO THE SAME.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 20 TO 25 KTS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY AS WELL.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MOST
WATERS FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE DAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER.
WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE SLOWLY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SEAS AND WINDS INCREASE GRADUALLY ON
THE SOUTHERN WATERS...BRIEFLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
FORTUNATELY ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE RATHER LOW OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS AND THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE TO OUR NORTH.
THEREFORE...THE RISK OF EVEN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS QUITE LOW.
HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION ALONG
THE SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND COASTS DURING THE HIGH TIDES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.  NO COASTAL FLOOD HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED
THOUGH FOR THIS UPCOMING EVENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ231>235-237.
     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
     FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 212031
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
431 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY WILL
TURN INTO A SOAKING RAIN LATER WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SHOWERS WILL
LINGER FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A FEW SHOWERS WERE AFFECTING SOUTHERN NH AND NORTHEAST MA AS OF LATE
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION WAS GENERALLY DRY.  WE
ACTUALLY HAVE SEEN SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE BREAK OUT ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE REGION...BUT THIS WILL BE TEMPORARY.

OVERALL...JUST A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH THE BULK
OF THE FORCING TO OUR NORTH.  AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON...SURFACE WINDS
WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  THIS WILL
PROBABLY ALLOW AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN... SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME DRIZZLE
TO EXPAND ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES...WHILE JUST A FEW SPOT SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH.

LOW TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.  WE MAY
ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
***A SOAKING RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH THE
  HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS***

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY...AS MOIST ONSHORE
NORTHEAST FLOW INCREASES. THE WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WILL WAIT
UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE SOAKING RAIN WILL DEVELOP AS LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
CLOSED MID LEVEL CENTERS LIFTS NORTHEAST.  A STRONG EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
STRONG LIFT FOR A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT.  THE CORE OF THE
STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET WILL SETUP ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
ZONES...WHICH IS WHERE WE EXPECT THE HEAVIEST RAIN.  OVERALL...
EXPECT A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE OUR FAR NORTHEAST
ZONES...WHERE 2 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS SEEM REASONABLE.  THERE
IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME 4 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN OUR FAR
NORTHEAST ZONES...MAINLY IN ESSEX COUNTY.  IF THIS WERE TO
MATERIALIZE...WE MIGHT HAVE SOME FLOODING ISSUES DEPENDING ON HOW
FAST IT FALLS.  HOWEVER...SINCE ITS A LOW PROBABILITY AND A 3RD AND
4TH PERIOD EVENT DID NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THINGS CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY IF MODEL TRENDS
SLIDE THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY
INDICATED.  REGARDLESS...EXPECT TYPICAL NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE
STREET FLOODING ISSUES.

FINALLY...WE DID NOTE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATE WED INTO WED
NIGHT.  INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...BUT DO
NOT EXPECT ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
* LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL BRING RAIN THU
* LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRI
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND

OVERALL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH A COUPLE OF FEATURES AS WELL AS
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MESOSCALE DETAILS BUT THOSE ARE TO BE
EXPECTED.  THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE LONG DURATION COASTAL
STORM EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  AFTER THE COASTAL STORM MOVES AWAY FROM
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...THE WEATHER DRIES OUT AND BECOMES MORE
SEASONABLE.  UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OUT LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED.

THURSDAY...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO CONTINUE AS A COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES UP THE COAST TO MAINE.  AN ADDITIONAL
HALF TO INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA THURSDAY.  AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
AND THEN THE MARITIMES...EXPECT HIGHEST AMOUNTS TO OCCUR ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EAST COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS...PARTICULARLY ON CAPE COD AND
CAPE ANN WHERE RAIN WILL LAST THE LONGEST.  WITH THE HIGHER PWATS
AND LOW LEVEL JET STRONGEST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...EXPECT THE
HEAVIEST RAIN AND THE STRONGEST WINDS TO OCCUR THERE.  THE ONE
EXCEPTION COULD BE ALONG CAPE ANN WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OFF THE OCEAN.  COOL...ONSHORE FLOW AND OVERCAST
SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S DURING THE DAY
AND IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP
INTO THE MARITIMES BUT WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BRINGING
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.  OVERALL EXPECT DRIER WEATHER
AND A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS THE DAY GOES ON.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
NORTHEAST BUT HERE IS WHERE WE SEE SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS.  THE ECMWF HAS A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE THE GFS HAS A MORE NEUTRAL
UPPER TROUGH.  IN BOTH MODELS LOW PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL PULL A
COLD FRONT THROUGH AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE
GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT AND HAS MORE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT...RESULTING IN A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH
THE FRONT.  EXPECTING DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THEN SLIDES
SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC MAY BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.  ANOTHER CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE
WITH THIS FRONT BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS GRADUALLY WILL LOWER TO
MVFR FROM EAST TO WEST TONIGHT.  WE THEN EXPECT FURTHER LOWERING TO
MAINLY IFR BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...BUT TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL EXPAND OVERNIGHT IN AREAS NORTH
OF THE MA TURNPIKE...BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE.  PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW
END MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN...SHOWERS
AND DRIZZLE WILL BE COMMON FOR THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES AND GRADUALLY EXPAND SOUTH.  WIDESPREAD MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED LATER WED INTO WED NIGHT.  NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS DEVELOP ON THE COAST WED NIGHT...BUT NEAR 30
KNOT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST MA COAST.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

KBDL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN RAIN AND
POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED THUNDER.  NE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 TO 25 KTS
ACROSS S NH AND NE MA.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED IN
CLEARING SKIES.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

***HIGH SEAS AND GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
  NIGHT ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST ATLANTIC WATERS***

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHEAST WATERS WHERE
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AS AN INTENSIFYING EASTERLY LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS.  AT THE SURFACE...SHOULD SEE NORTHEAST SCA WIND GUSTS
OVERSPREAD MOST OF OUR WATERS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.  THE CORE OF
THE STRONGEST JET WILL BE NORTH OUR WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  STILL
THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF NORTHEAST 35 KNOT WIND GUSTS ACROSS
OUT FAR NORTHEAST WATERS.  THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR
THIS LOCATION.  ALSO...SEAS MAY BUILD TO AROUND 15 FEET IN OUR
EXTREME NORTHEAST ATLANTIC WATERS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. 10 TO 15 FOOT SEAS ON THE NORTHEASTERN
WATERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...5 TO 10 FOOT SEAS ELSEWHERE WILL DO THE SAME.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 20 TO 25 KTS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY AS WELL.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MOST
WATERS FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE DAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER.
WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE SLOWLY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SEAS AND WINDS INCREASE GRADUALLY ON
THE SOUTHERN WATERS...BRIEFLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
FORTUNATELY ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE RATHER LOW OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS AND THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE TO OUR NORTH.
THEREFORE...THE RISK OF EVEN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS QUITE LOW.
HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION ALONG
THE SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND COASTS DURING THE HIGH TIDES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.  NO COASTAL FLOOD HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED
THOUGH FOR THIS UPCOMING EVENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ231>235-237.
     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
     FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/RLG
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...FRANK/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...FRANK




000
FXUS61 KBOX 211759
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
158 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS
AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

155 PM UPDATE...

CLUSTER OF RAIN SHOWERS WAS MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA AND INTO A
PORTION OF RHODE ISLAND AS OF MID AFTERNOON.  APPEARS TO IN A NARROW
AREA OF LOW LEVEL SURFACE CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE THESE SHOWERS.  SOME OF THESE SHOWERS WERE
RESULTING IN BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.  SURFACE WINDS ARE RATHER LIGHT
NORTHWEST OF I-95 AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH SOUTHEAST
OF THAT AREA.

THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE SHOULD HANG AROUND FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE
WEAKENING.  WE MAY SEE THE MAIN CLUSTER OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MA GRADUALLY LIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEFORE WEAKENING BY EARLY
EVENING.  ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY.

TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S ACROSS
SOUTHERN NH...TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S SOUTH OF THE PIKE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF
DRIZZLE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH DRY AIR ALOFT.
FARTHER INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND WESTERN MA A STEADIER RAIN IS
POSSIBLE AS COMMA HEAD RAINS MAY CLIP THIS REGION WHILE BULK OF RAIN
IS CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...NOT MUCH OF A DROP OFF GIVEN ONSHORE FLOW/CLOUDS AND
LIGHT PRECIP.

WEDNESDAY...

TRAILING SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND THEN
TAKES AIM AT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER IN THE DAY. STRONG SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE AND RESULTS IN COASTAL LOW OFF NJ
COAST TO INTENSIFY. THUS SLUG OF HEAVY RAIN LIKELY TO MOVE ONSHORE
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY. IN ADDITION AS DRY SLOT
APPROACHES THETA-E LAPSE RATES BEGIN TO DECREASE. THUS EMBEDDED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE AND WOULD ENHANCE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE RISK URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AND MAY IMPACT
THE EVENING COMMUTE.

TEMPS SIMILAR AS TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE L60S OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND
COOLING INTO THE 50S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

WITH FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MID TERM REGARDING A
SLOW MEANDERING AND STACKED LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING JUST TO THE S
OF SRN NEW ENGLAND...A GENERAL CONSENSUS BLEND WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE FOR THIS FORECAST. FOR THE REMAINDER...TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK...THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A BIT OF A
HIGHER AMPLIFICATION BIAS /SOMEWHAT TYPICAL OF THIS MODEL/. WHILE
OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS AND SEVERAL OF IT/S OWN ENSEMBLES ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH A SECONDARY KICKER WAVE AND HIGH PRES.
THEREFORE...WILL ADD LESS WEIGHT TO THE ECMWF BY THE LATE WEEK AND
WEEKEND-EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE KEY FEATURE INITIALLY IS A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF LOW PRES WITH ATTENDANT OCCLUDING SFC LOW THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK. IT/S NOT UNTIL A KICKER WAVE /DEEPENING WAVE EJECTING
OUT OF THE CANADIAN W/ MOVES IN ON SAT THAT THE LOW PRES MOVES
FULLY INTO THE MARITIMES AND ALLOWS DRIER AIR TO FULLY BUILD IN.
THEREFORE...EXPECT THE WET/GRAY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRI
WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM THEN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
AT THIS POINT ALL FEATURES LINE UP FOR THE POTENTIALLY WETTEST
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. IN ESSENCE A REINFORCING LLJ /ABOUT 40+ KT
MAINLY N OF THE BOX CWA/ MOVES IN COMBINED WITH UPPER LVL DRY SLOT
AND NEAR 6.0+ C/KM LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE...LOOKS LIKE A DECENT
SETUP FOR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH THIS LLJ PARTICULARLY BETWEEN
00Z AND 12Z ON THU. WITH MODEST PWATS UP TO 1.5 INCHES /ABOUT 2+
STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/. COULD SEE POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
ON THU AS THE LLJ AND DRY SLOT SHIFT N. RIGHT NOW THE PRIMARY
THREAT WOULD BE THE TYPICAL URBAN AREAS WHERE DRAINAGE IS POOR FOR
ANY NUISANCE FLOODING...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS OVER
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE GRAY/DAMP CONDITIONS
CONTINUE WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER. DUE
TO THIS CLOUD COVER...SUSPECT THAT LOWS REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 50S
AND HIGHS ONLY RISE INTO THE MID 50S AND LOW 60S.

FRI...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS THE UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF
CANADA BEGINS TO FORCE THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF TO THE E AND WEAKENS
IT. STILL ENOUGH UPPER LVL COOL AIR AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A FEW
MORE SHOWERS. SO THE GRAY/WET CONDITIONS CONTINUE...BUT WITH A
MORE N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...THESE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO BE
FEWER AND FARTHER BETWEEN. TEMPS A BIT WARMER...MAINLY UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S.

SAT AND SUN...
SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY RELEASE THE REGION FROM
THE GRIPS OF THE CUTOFF. AT THIS POINT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING
IN...MAY ONLY SEE CLOUD COVER WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MAINLY SAT NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUN. THE DIFFERENCES IN AMPLIFICATION BETWEEN MODELS MAKE
IT DIFFICULT TO TELL EXACTLY HOW DEEP THE COLD AIR GETS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN...BUT WITH FULL MIXING HIGHS OF LOW-MID 60S ARE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S.

MON AND TUE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR AND MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS. TEMPS MAY BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...IF NOT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP THE COOL AIR BECOMES AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  AREAS OF MARGINAL MVFR CIGS
ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH MAINLY VFR ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
CLUSTER OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS WERE MAINLY ACROSS A SMALL
PORTION OF RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MA.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS GRADUALLY WILL LOWER TO
MVFR AND THEN MAINLY IFR BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.  TIMING REMAINS
UNCERTAIN.  AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
NORTH OF THE PIKE...BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE.  PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW
END MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE WILL BE COMMON FOR THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY.  WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED LATER WED INTO WED NIGHT.  NORTHEAST
WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS DEVELOP ON THE COAST WED NIGHT...BUT
NEAR 30 KNOT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST MA.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

KBDL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
MAINLY IFR/MVFR WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. LOW CIGS AND
VSBYS IN HEAVIER RAIN AND FOG. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THROUGH
THE PERIOD. CHANCE FOR LLWS ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU
MORNING WITH UP TO 40 KT POSSIBLE AT AROUND 2KFT ESPECIALLY
TERMINALS N OF THE MASS PIKE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
IMPROVING TO VFR. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN SOUTHERN NH AND EASTERN MASS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WED/...

TODAY...

STRONGEST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN MA
WATERS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. THUS SCA POSTED FOR THAT AREA.
HEAVY RAIN WITH LOW RISK OF T-STORMS ACROSS THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE
LIGHTER WINDS AND SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...

EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS. LOW RISK OF 25 KT OVER CAPE ANN WATERS.
VSBY REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE.

WEDNESDAY...

HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDER MOVES SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WATERS AND THEN ONSHORE LATE IN THE DAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS 15-20 KT. VSBY REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND HEAVY
RAIN LATE IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
MAINLY E-NE FLOW ALONG THE WATERS WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. THEN
SHIFTING TO NW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THU. A FEW WIND
GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE WED NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE N
WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ELSEWHERE. THE
WINDS DROP OFF AS THEY SHIFT THU...BUT THEN GUST AGAIN TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE DAY THU. OTHERWISE...SEAS BUILD WED
NIGHT INTO THU MORNING WITH AT LEAST 5-9 FT SEAS POSSIBLE. SOME
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING.

FRI...
LOW PRES MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE...WINDS AND SEAS MAY STILL REACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE DAY FRI AND INTO FRI
NIGHT...BUT EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT.

SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 211421
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1020 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS
AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

***SCATTERED HIT AND MISS SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT NOT
  EXPECTING A WASHOUT**

1020 AM UPDATE...

BAND OF RAIN EXITING NANTUCKET AS OF LATE MORNING.  OTHERWISE...JUST
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE AFFECTING THE REGION AT LATE
MORNING.

HIT AND MISS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT MAY
BECOME A BIT MORE PREVALENT.  THE REASON IS THAT WERE QUITE COLD
ALOFT GIVEN THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW TO OUR WEST.  THIS SHOULD GENERATE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO INCREASE A BIT IN
COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT.  THERE IS EVEN
THE LOW PROBABILITY FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

ALL IN ALL...WHILE SCATTERED HIT AND MISS SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT.  HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF
DRIZZLE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH DRY AIR ALOFT.
FARTHER INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND WESTERN MA A STEADIER RAIN IS
POSSIBLE AS COMMA HEAD RAINS MAY CLIP THIS REGION WHILE BULK OF RAIN
IS CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...NOT MUCH OF A DROP OFF GIVEN ONSHORE FLOW/CLOUDS AND
LIGHT PRECIP.

WEDNESDAY...

TRAILING SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND THEN
TAKES AIM AT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER IN THE DAY. STRONG SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE AND RESULTS IN COASTAL LOW OFF NJ
COAST TO INTENSIFY. THUS SLUG OF HEAVY RAIN LIKELY TO MOVE ONSHORE
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY. IN ADDITION AS DRY SLOT
APPROACHES THETA-E LAPSE RATES BEGIN TO DECREASE. THUS EMBEDDED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE AND WOULD ENHANCE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE RISK URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AND MAY IMPACT
THE EVENING COMMUTE.

TEMPS SIMILAR AS TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE L60S OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND
COOLING INTO THE 50S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

WITH FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MID TERM REGARDING A
SLOW MEANDERING AND STACKED LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING JUST TO THE S
OF SRN NEW ENGLAND...A GENERAL CONSENSUS BLEND WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE FOR THIS FORECAST. FOR THE REMAINDER...TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK...THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A BIT OF A
HIGHER AMPLIFICATION BIAS /SOMEWHAT TYPICAL OF THIS MODEL/. WHILE
OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS AND SEVERAL OF IT/S OWN ENSEMBLES ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH A SECONDARY KICKER WAVE AND HIGH PRES.
THEREFORE...WILL ADD LESS WEIGHT TO THE ECMWF BY THE LATE WEEK AND
WEEKEND-EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE KEY FEATURE INITIALLY IS A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF LOW PRES WITH ATTENDANT OCCLUDING SFC LOW THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK. IT/S NOT UNTIL A KICKER WAVE /DEEPENING WAVE EJECTING
OUT OF THE CANADIAN W/ MOVES IN ON SAT THAT THE LOW PRES MOVES
FULLY INTO THE MARITIMES AND ALLOWS DRIER AIR TO FULLY BUILD IN.
THEREFORE...EXPECT THE WET/GRAY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRI
WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM THEN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
AT THIS POINT ALL FEATURES LINE UP FOR THE POTENTIALLY WETTEST
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. IN ESSENCE A REINFORCING LLJ /ABOUT 40+ KT
MAINLY N OF THE BOX CWA/ MOVES IN COMBINED WITH UPPER LVL DRY SLOT
AND NEAR 6.0+ C/KM LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE...LOOKS LIKE A DECENT
SETUP FOR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH THIS LLJ PARTICULARLY BETWEEN
00Z AND 12Z ON THU. WITH MODEST PWATS UP TO 1.5 INCHES /ABOUT 2+
STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/. COULD SEE POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
ON THU AS THE LLJ AND DRY SLOT SHIFT N. RIGHT NOW THE PRIMARY
THREAT WOULD BE THE TYPICAL URBAN AREAS WHERE DRAINAGE IS POOR FOR
ANY NUISANCE FLOODING...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS OVER
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE GRAY/DAMP CONDITIONS
CONTINUE WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER. DUE
TO THIS CLOUD COVER...SUSPECT THAT LOWS REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 50S
AND HIGHS ONLY RISE INTO THE MID 50S AND LOW 60S.

FRI...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS THE UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF
CANADA BEGINS TO FORCE THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF TO THE E AND WEAKENS
IT. STILL ENOUGH UPPER LVL COOL AIR AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A FEW
MORE SHOWERS. SO THE GRAY/WET CONDITIONS CONTINUE...BUT WITH A
MORE N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...THESE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO BE
FEWER AND FARTHER BETWEEN. TEMPS A BIT WARMER...MAINLY UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S.

SAT AND SUN...
SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY RELEASE THE REGION FROM
THE GRIPS OF THE CUTOFF. AT THIS POINT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING
IN...MAY ONLY SEE CLOUD COVER WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MAINLY SAT NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUN. THE DIFFERENCES IN AMPLIFICATION BETWEEN MODELS MAKE
IT DIFFICULT TO TELL EXACTLY HOW DEEP THE COLD AIR GETS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN...BUT WITH FULL MIXING HIGHS OF LOW-MID 60S ARE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S.

MON AND TUE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR AND MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS. TEMPS MAY BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...IF NOT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP THE COOL AIR BECOMES AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

1020 AM UPDATE...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAY TODAY EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND COAST...WHERE MVFR CIGS MAY AFFECT THE REGION WITH
SOUTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING
BY AFTERNOON MAY RESULT IN BRIEF LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS. THERE IS EVEN
A LOW PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...

MAIN AREA OF RAIN LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND.
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BE COMMON ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TERMINALS WITH VFR/MVFR TRENDING TOWARD IFR LATE TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...

IFR/MVFR WITH MOST OF THE RAIN CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER
A NEW AREA OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE ONSHORE TO THE SOUTH COAST LATE IN
THE DAY. E-NE WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AS WELL.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING AND DETAILS.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING AND DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
MAINLY IFR/MVFR WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. LOW CIGS AND
VSBYS IN HEAVIER RAIN AND FOG. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THROUGH
THE PERIOD. CHANCE FOR LLWS ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU
MORNING WITH UP TO 40 KT POSSIBLE AT AROUND 2KFT ESPECIALLY
TERMINALS N OF THE MASS PIKE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
IMPROVING TO VFR. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN SOUTHERN NH AND EASTERN MASS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WED/...

TODAY...

STRONGEST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN MA
WATERS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. THUS SCA POSTED FOR THAT AREA.
HEAVY RAIN WITH LOW RISK OF T-STORMS ACROSS THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE
LIGHTER WINDS AND SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...

EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS. LOW RISK OF 25 KT OVER CAPE ANN WATERS.
VSBY REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE.

WEDNESDAY...

HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDER MOVES SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WATERS AND THEN ONSHORE LATE IN THE DAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS 15-20 KT. VSBY REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND HEAVY
RAIN LATE IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
MAINLY E-NE FLOW ALONG THE WATERS WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. THEN
SHIFTING TO NW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THU. A FEW WIND
GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE WED NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE N
WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ELSEWHERE. THE
WINDS DROP OFF AS THEY SHIFT THU...BUT THEN GUST AGAIN TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE DAY THU. OTHERWISE...SEAS BUILD WED
NIGHT INTO THU MORNING WITH AT LEAST 5-9 FT SEAS POSSIBLE. SOME
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING.

FRI...
LOW PRES MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE...WINDS AND SEAS MAY STILL REACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE DAY FRI AND INTO FRI
NIGHT...BUT EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT.

SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 211421
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1020 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS
AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

***SCATTERED HIT AND MISS SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT NOT
  EXPECTING A WASHOUT**

1020 AM UPDATE...

BAND OF RAIN EXITING NANTUCKET AS OF LATE MORNING.  OTHERWISE...JUST
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE AFFECTING THE REGION AT LATE
MORNING.

HIT AND MISS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT MAY
BECOME A BIT MORE PREVALENT.  THE REASON IS THAT WERE QUITE COLD
ALOFT GIVEN THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW TO OUR WEST.  THIS SHOULD GENERATE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO INCREASE A BIT IN
COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT.  THERE IS EVEN
THE LOW PROBABILITY FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

ALL IN ALL...WHILE SCATTERED HIT AND MISS SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT.  HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF
DRIZZLE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH DRY AIR ALOFT.
FARTHER INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND WESTERN MA A STEADIER RAIN IS
POSSIBLE AS COMMA HEAD RAINS MAY CLIP THIS REGION WHILE BULK OF RAIN
IS CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...NOT MUCH OF A DROP OFF GIVEN ONSHORE FLOW/CLOUDS AND
LIGHT PRECIP.

WEDNESDAY...

TRAILING SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND THEN
TAKES AIM AT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER IN THE DAY. STRONG SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE AND RESULTS IN COASTAL LOW OFF NJ
COAST TO INTENSIFY. THUS SLUG OF HEAVY RAIN LIKELY TO MOVE ONSHORE
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY. IN ADDITION AS DRY SLOT
APPROACHES THETA-E LAPSE RATES BEGIN TO DECREASE. THUS EMBEDDED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE AND WOULD ENHANCE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE RISK URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AND MAY IMPACT
THE EVENING COMMUTE.

TEMPS SIMILAR AS TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE L60S OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND
COOLING INTO THE 50S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

WITH FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MID TERM REGARDING A
SLOW MEANDERING AND STACKED LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING JUST TO THE S
OF SRN NEW ENGLAND...A GENERAL CONSENSUS BLEND WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE FOR THIS FORECAST. FOR THE REMAINDER...TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK...THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A BIT OF A
HIGHER AMPLIFICATION BIAS /SOMEWHAT TYPICAL OF THIS MODEL/. WHILE
OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS AND SEVERAL OF IT/S OWN ENSEMBLES ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH A SECONDARY KICKER WAVE AND HIGH PRES.
THEREFORE...WILL ADD LESS WEIGHT TO THE ECMWF BY THE LATE WEEK AND
WEEKEND-EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE KEY FEATURE INITIALLY IS A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF LOW PRES WITH ATTENDANT OCCLUDING SFC LOW THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK. IT/S NOT UNTIL A KICKER WAVE /DEEPENING WAVE EJECTING
OUT OF THE CANADIAN W/ MOVES IN ON SAT THAT THE LOW PRES MOVES
FULLY INTO THE MARITIMES AND ALLOWS DRIER AIR TO FULLY BUILD IN.
THEREFORE...EXPECT THE WET/GRAY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRI
WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM THEN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
AT THIS POINT ALL FEATURES LINE UP FOR THE POTENTIALLY WETTEST
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. IN ESSENCE A REINFORCING LLJ /ABOUT 40+ KT
MAINLY N OF THE BOX CWA/ MOVES IN COMBINED WITH UPPER LVL DRY SLOT
AND NEAR 6.0+ C/KM LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE...LOOKS LIKE A DECENT
SETUP FOR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH THIS LLJ PARTICULARLY BETWEEN
00Z AND 12Z ON THU. WITH MODEST PWATS UP TO 1.5 INCHES /ABOUT 2+
STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/. COULD SEE POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
ON THU AS THE LLJ AND DRY SLOT SHIFT N. RIGHT NOW THE PRIMARY
THREAT WOULD BE THE TYPICAL URBAN AREAS WHERE DRAINAGE IS POOR FOR
ANY NUISANCE FLOODING...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS OVER
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE GRAY/DAMP CONDITIONS
CONTINUE WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER. DUE
TO THIS CLOUD COVER...SUSPECT THAT LOWS REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 50S
AND HIGHS ONLY RISE INTO THE MID 50S AND LOW 60S.

FRI...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS THE UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF
CANADA BEGINS TO FORCE THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF TO THE E AND WEAKENS
IT. STILL ENOUGH UPPER LVL COOL AIR AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A FEW
MORE SHOWERS. SO THE GRAY/WET CONDITIONS CONTINUE...BUT WITH A
MORE N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...THESE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO BE
FEWER AND FARTHER BETWEEN. TEMPS A BIT WARMER...MAINLY UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S.

SAT AND SUN...
SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY RELEASE THE REGION FROM
THE GRIPS OF THE CUTOFF. AT THIS POINT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING
IN...MAY ONLY SEE CLOUD COVER WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MAINLY SAT NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUN. THE DIFFERENCES IN AMPLIFICATION BETWEEN MODELS MAKE
IT DIFFICULT TO TELL EXACTLY HOW DEEP THE COLD AIR GETS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN...BUT WITH FULL MIXING HIGHS OF LOW-MID 60S ARE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S.

MON AND TUE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR AND MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS. TEMPS MAY BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...IF NOT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP THE COOL AIR BECOMES AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

1020 AM UPDATE...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAY TODAY EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND COAST...WHERE MVFR CIGS MAY AFFECT THE REGION WITH
SOUTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING
BY AFTERNOON MAY RESULT IN BRIEF LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS. THERE IS EVEN
A LOW PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...

MAIN AREA OF RAIN LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND.
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BE COMMON ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TERMINALS WITH VFR/MVFR TRENDING TOWARD IFR LATE TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...

IFR/MVFR WITH MOST OF THE RAIN CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER
A NEW AREA OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE ONSHORE TO THE SOUTH COAST LATE IN
THE DAY. E-NE WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AS WELL.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING AND DETAILS.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING AND DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
MAINLY IFR/MVFR WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. LOW CIGS AND
VSBYS IN HEAVIER RAIN AND FOG. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THROUGH
THE PERIOD. CHANCE FOR LLWS ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU
MORNING WITH UP TO 40 KT POSSIBLE AT AROUND 2KFT ESPECIALLY
TERMINALS N OF THE MASS PIKE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
IMPROVING TO VFR. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN SOUTHERN NH AND EASTERN MASS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WED/...

TODAY...

STRONGEST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN MA
WATERS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. THUS SCA POSTED FOR THAT AREA.
HEAVY RAIN WITH LOW RISK OF T-STORMS ACROSS THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE
LIGHTER WINDS AND SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...

EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS. LOW RISK OF 25 KT OVER CAPE ANN WATERS.
VSBY REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE.

WEDNESDAY...

HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDER MOVES SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WATERS AND THEN ONSHORE LATE IN THE DAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS 15-20 KT. VSBY REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND HEAVY
RAIN LATE IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
MAINLY E-NE FLOW ALONG THE WATERS WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. THEN
SHIFTING TO NW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THU. A FEW WIND
GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE WED NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE N
WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ELSEWHERE. THE
WINDS DROP OFF AS THEY SHIFT THU...BUT THEN GUST AGAIN TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE DAY THU. OTHERWISE...SEAS BUILD WED
NIGHT INTO THU MORNING WITH AT LEAST 5-9 FT SEAS POSSIBLE. SOME
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING.

FRI...
LOW PRES MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE...WINDS AND SEAS MAY STILL REACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE DAY FRI AND INTO FRI
NIGHT...BUT EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT.

SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 211421
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1020 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS
AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

***SCATTERED HIT AND MISS SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT NOT
  EXPECTING A WASHOUT**

1020 AM UPDATE...

BAND OF RAIN EXITING NANTUCKET AS OF LATE MORNING.  OTHERWISE...JUST
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE AFFECTING THE REGION AT LATE
MORNING.

HIT AND MISS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT MAY
BECOME A BIT MORE PREVALENT.  THE REASON IS THAT WERE QUITE COLD
ALOFT GIVEN THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW TO OUR WEST.  THIS SHOULD GENERATE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO INCREASE A BIT IN
COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT.  THERE IS EVEN
THE LOW PROBABILITY FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

ALL IN ALL...WHILE SCATTERED HIT AND MISS SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT.  HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF
DRIZZLE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH DRY AIR ALOFT.
FARTHER INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND WESTERN MA A STEADIER RAIN IS
POSSIBLE AS COMMA HEAD RAINS MAY CLIP THIS REGION WHILE BULK OF RAIN
IS CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...NOT MUCH OF A DROP OFF GIVEN ONSHORE FLOW/CLOUDS AND
LIGHT PRECIP.

WEDNESDAY...

TRAILING SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND THEN
TAKES AIM AT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER IN THE DAY. STRONG SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE AND RESULTS IN COASTAL LOW OFF NJ
COAST TO INTENSIFY. THUS SLUG OF HEAVY RAIN LIKELY TO MOVE ONSHORE
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY. IN ADDITION AS DRY SLOT
APPROACHES THETA-E LAPSE RATES BEGIN TO DECREASE. THUS EMBEDDED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE AND WOULD ENHANCE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE RISK URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AND MAY IMPACT
THE EVENING COMMUTE.

TEMPS SIMILAR AS TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE L60S OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND
COOLING INTO THE 50S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

WITH FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MID TERM REGARDING A
SLOW MEANDERING AND STACKED LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING JUST TO THE S
OF SRN NEW ENGLAND...A GENERAL CONSENSUS BLEND WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE FOR THIS FORECAST. FOR THE REMAINDER...TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK...THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A BIT OF A
HIGHER AMPLIFICATION BIAS /SOMEWHAT TYPICAL OF THIS MODEL/. WHILE
OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS AND SEVERAL OF IT/S OWN ENSEMBLES ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH A SECONDARY KICKER WAVE AND HIGH PRES.
THEREFORE...WILL ADD LESS WEIGHT TO THE ECMWF BY THE LATE WEEK AND
WEEKEND-EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE KEY FEATURE INITIALLY IS A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF LOW PRES WITH ATTENDANT OCCLUDING SFC LOW THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK. IT/S NOT UNTIL A KICKER WAVE /DEEPENING WAVE EJECTING
OUT OF THE CANADIAN W/ MOVES IN ON SAT THAT THE LOW PRES MOVES
FULLY INTO THE MARITIMES AND ALLOWS DRIER AIR TO FULLY BUILD IN.
THEREFORE...EXPECT THE WET/GRAY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRI
WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM THEN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
AT THIS POINT ALL FEATURES LINE UP FOR THE POTENTIALLY WETTEST
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. IN ESSENCE A REINFORCING LLJ /ABOUT 40+ KT
MAINLY N OF THE BOX CWA/ MOVES IN COMBINED WITH UPPER LVL DRY SLOT
AND NEAR 6.0+ C/KM LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE...LOOKS LIKE A DECENT
SETUP FOR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH THIS LLJ PARTICULARLY BETWEEN
00Z AND 12Z ON THU. WITH MODEST PWATS UP TO 1.5 INCHES /ABOUT 2+
STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/. COULD SEE POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
ON THU AS THE LLJ AND DRY SLOT SHIFT N. RIGHT NOW THE PRIMARY
THREAT WOULD BE THE TYPICAL URBAN AREAS WHERE DRAINAGE IS POOR FOR
ANY NUISANCE FLOODING...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS OVER
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE GRAY/DAMP CONDITIONS
CONTINUE WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER. DUE
TO THIS CLOUD COVER...SUSPECT THAT LOWS REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 50S
AND HIGHS ONLY RISE INTO THE MID 50S AND LOW 60S.

FRI...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS THE UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF
CANADA BEGINS TO FORCE THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF TO THE E AND WEAKENS
IT. STILL ENOUGH UPPER LVL COOL AIR AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A FEW
MORE SHOWERS. SO THE GRAY/WET CONDITIONS CONTINUE...BUT WITH A
MORE N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...THESE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO BE
FEWER AND FARTHER BETWEEN. TEMPS A BIT WARMER...MAINLY UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S.

SAT AND SUN...
SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY RELEASE THE REGION FROM
THE GRIPS OF THE CUTOFF. AT THIS POINT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING
IN...MAY ONLY SEE CLOUD COVER WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MAINLY SAT NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUN. THE DIFFERENCES IN AMPLIFICATION BETWEEN MODELS MAKE
IT DIFFICULT TO TELL EXACTLY HOW DEEP THE COLD AIR GETS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN...BUT WITH FULL MIXING HIGHS OF LOW-MID 60S ARE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S.

MON AND TUE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR AND MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS. TEMPS MAY BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...IF NOT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP THE COOL AIR BECOMES AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

1020 AM UPDATE...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAY TODAY EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND COAST...WHERE MVFR CIGS MAY AFFECT THE REGION WITH
SOUTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING
BY AFTERNOON MAY RESULT IN BRIEF LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS. THERE IS EVEN
A LOW PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...

MAIN AREA OF RAIN LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND.
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BE COMMON ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TERMINALS WITH VFR/MVFR TRENDING TOWARD IFR LATE TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...

IFR/MVFR WITH MOST OF THE RAIN CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER
A NEW AREA OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE ONSHORE TO THE SOUTH COAST LATE IN
THE DAY. E-NE WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AS WELL.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING AND DETAILS.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING AND DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
MAINLY IFR/MVFR WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. LOW CIGS AND
VSBYS IN HEAVIER RAIN AND FOG. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THROUGH
THE PERIOD. CHANCE FOR LLWS ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU
MORNING WITH UP TO 40 KT POSSIBLE AT AROUND 2KFT ESPECIALLY
TERMINALS N OF THE MASS PIKE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
IMPROVING TO VFR. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN SOUTHERN NH AND EASTERN MASS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WED/...

TODAY...

STRONGEST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN MA
WATERS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. THUS SCA POSTED FOR THAT AREA.
HEAVY RAIN WITH LOW RISK OF T-STORMS ACROSS THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE
LIGHTER WINDS AND SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...

EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS. LOW RISK OF 25 KT OVER CAPE ANN WATERS.
VSBY REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE.

WEDNESDAY...

HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDER MOVES SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WATERS AND THEN ONSHORE LATE IN THE DAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS 15-20 KT. VSBY REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND HEAVY
RAIN LATE IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
MAINLY E-NE FLOW ALONG THE WATERS WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. THEN
SHIFTING TO NW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THU. A FEW WIND
GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE WED NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE N
WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ELSEWHERE. THE
WINDS DROP OFF AS THEY SHIFT THU...BUT THEN GUST AGAIN TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE DAY THU. OTHERWISE...SEAS BUILD WED
NIGHT INTO THU MORNING WITH AT LEAST 5-9 FT SEAS POSSIBLE. SOME
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING.

FRI...
LOW PRES MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE...WINDS AND SEAS MAY STILL REACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE DAY FRI AND INTO FRI
NIGHT...BUT EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT.

SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 211421
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1020 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS
AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

***SCATTERED HIT AND MISS SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT NOT
  EXPECTING A WASHOUT**

1020 AM UPDATE...

BAND OF RAIN EXITING NANTUCKET AS OF LATE MORNING.  OTHERWISE...JUST
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE AFFECTING THE REGION AT LATE
MORNING.

HIT AND MISS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT MAY
BECOME A BIT MORE PREVALENT.  THE REASON IS THAT WERE QUITE COLD
ALOFT GIVEN THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW TO OUR WEST.  THIS SHOULD GENERATE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO INCREASE A BIT IN
COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT.  THERE IS EVEN
THE LOW PROBABILITY FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

ALL IN ALL...WHILE SCATTERED HIT AND MISS SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT.  HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF
DRIZZLE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH DRY AIR ALOFT.
FARTHER INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND WESTERN MA A STEADIER RAIN IS
POSSIBLE AS COMMA HEAD RAINS MAY CLIP THIS REGION WHILE BULK OF RAIN
IS CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...NOT MUCH OF A DROP OFF GIVEN ONSHORE FLOW/CLOUDS AND
LIGHT PRECIP.

WEDNESDAY...

TRAILING SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND THEN
TAKES AIM AT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER IN THE DAY. STRONG SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE AND RESULTS IN COASTAL LOW OFF NJ
COAST TO INTENSIFY. THUS SLUG OF HEAVY RAIN LIKELY TO MOVE ONSHORE
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY. IN ADDITION AS DRY SLOT
APPROACHES THETA-E LAPSE RATES BEGIN TO DECREASE. THUS EMBEDDED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE AND WOULD ENHANCE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE RISK URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AND MAY IMPACT
THE EVENING COMMUTE.

TEMPS SIMILAR AS TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE L60S OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND
COOLING INTO THE 50S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

WITH FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MID TERM REGARDING A
SLOW MEANDERING AND STACKED LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING JUST TO THE S
OF SRN NEW ENGLAND...A GENERAL CONSENSUS BLEND WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE FOR THIS FORECAST. FOR THE REMAINDER...TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK...THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A BIT OF A
HIGHER AMPLIFICATION BIAS /SOMEWHAT TYPICAL OF THIS MODEL/. WHILE
OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS AND SEVERAL OF IT/S OWN ENSEMBLES ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH A SECONDARY KICKER WAVE AND HIGH PRES.
THEREFORE...WILL ADD LESS WEIGHT TO THE ECMWF BY THE LATE WEEK AND
WEEKEND-EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE KEY FEATURE INITIALLY IS A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF LOW PRES WITH ATTENDANT OCCLUDING SFC LOW THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK. IT/S NOT UNTIL A KICKER WAVE /DEEPENING WAVE EJECTING
OUT OF THE CANADIAN W/ MOVES IN ON SAT THAT THE LOW PRES MOVES
FULLY INTO THE MARITIMES AND ALLOWS DRIER AIR TO FULLY BUILD IN.
THEREFORE...EXPECT THE WET/GRAY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRI
WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM THEN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
AT THIS POINT ALL FEATURES LINE UP FOR THE POTENTIALLY WETTEST
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. IN ESSENCE A REINFORCING LLJ /ABOUT 40+ KT
MAINLY N OF THE BOX CWA/ MOVES IN COMBINED WITH UPPER LVL DRY SLOT
AND NEAR 6.0+ C/KM LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE...LOOKS LIKE A DECENT
SETUP FOR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH THIS LLJ PARTICULARLY BETWEEN
00Z AND 12Z ON THU. WITH MODEST PWATS UP TO 1.5 INCHES /ABOUT 2+
STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/. COULD SEE POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
ON THU AS THE LLJ AND DRY SLOT SHIFT N. RIGHT NOW THE PRIMARY
THREAT WOULD BE THE TYPICAL URBAN AREAS WHERE DRAINAGE IS POOR FOR
ANY NUISANCE FLOODING...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS OVER
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE GRAY/DAMP CONDITIONS
CONTINUE WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER. DUE
TO THIS CLOUD COVER...SUSPECT THAT LOWS REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 50S
AND HIGHS ONLY RISE INTO THE MID 50S AND LOW 60S.

FRI...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS THE UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF
CANADA BEGINS TO FORCE THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF TO THE E AND WEAKENS
IT. STILL ENOUGH UPPER LVL COOL AIR AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A FEW
MORE SHOWERS. SO THE GRAY/WET CONDITIONS CONTINUE...BUT WITH A
MORE N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...THESE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO BE
FEWER AND FARTHER BETWEEN. TEMPS A BIT WARMER...MAINLY UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S.

SAT AND SUN...
SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY RELEASE THE REGION FROM
THE GRIPS OF THE CUTOFF. AT THIS POINT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING
IN...MAY ONLY SEE CLOUD COVER WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MAINLY SAT NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUN. THE DIFFERENCES IN AMPLIFICATION BETWEEN MODELS MAKE
IT DIFFICULT TO TELL EXACTLY HOW DEEP THE COLD AIR GETS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN...BUT WITH FULL MIXING HIGHS OF LOW-MID 60S ARE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S.

MON AND TUE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR AND MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS. TEMPS MAY BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...IF NOT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP THE COOL AIR BECOMES AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

1020 AM UPDATE...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAY TODAY EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND COAST...WHERE MVFR CIGS MAY AFFECT THE REGION WITH
SOUTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING
BY AFTERNOON MAY RESULT IN BRIEF LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS. THERE IS EVEN
A LOW PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...

MAIN AREA OF RAIN LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND.
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BE COMMON ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TERMINALS WITH VFR/MVFR TRENDING TOWARD IFR LATE TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...

IFR/MVFR WITH MOST OF THE RAIN CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER
A NEW AREA OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE ONSHORE TO THE SOUTH COAST LATE IN
THE DAY. E-NE WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AS WELL.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING AND DETAILS.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING AND DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
MAINLY IFR/MVFR WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. LOW CIGS AND
VSBYS IN HEAVIER RAIN AND FOG. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THROUGH
THE PERIOD. CHANCE FOR LLWS ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU
MORNING WITH UP TO 40 KT POSSIBLE AT AROUND 2KFT ESPECIALLY
TERMINALS N OF THE MASS PIKE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
IMPROVING TO VFR. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN SOUTHERN NH AND EASTERN MASS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WED/...

TODAY...

STRONGEST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN MA
WATERS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. THUS SCA POSTED FOR THAT AREA.
HEAVY RAIN WITH LOW RISK OF T-STORMS ACROSS THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE
LIGHTER WINDS AND SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...

EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS. LOW RISK OF 25 KT OVER CAPE ANN WATERS.
VSBY REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE.

WEDNESDAY...

HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDER MOVES SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WATERS AND THEN ONSHORE LATE IN THE DAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS 15-20 KT. VSBY REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND HEAVY
RAIN LATE IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
MAINLY E-NE FLOW ALONG THE WATERS WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. THEN
SHIFTING TO NW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THU. A FEW WIND
GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE WED NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE N
WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ELSEWHERE. THE
WINDS DROP OFF AS THEY SHIFT THU...BUT THEN GUST AGAIN TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE DAY THU. OTHERWISE...SEAS BUILD WED
NIGHT INTO THU MORNING WITH AT LEAST 5-9 FT SEAS POSSIBLE. SOME
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING.

FRI...
LOW PRES MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE...WINDS AND SEAS MAY STILL REACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE DAY FRI AND INTO FRI
NIGHT...BUT EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT.

SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 211306
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
905 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS
AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

***SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS BY AFTERNOON BUT A
  WASHOUT IS NOT EXPECTED***

905 AM UPDATE...

BAND OF HEAVY RAIN BEING GENERATED BY CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
AFFECT NANTUCKET AND PERHAPS A PORTION OF THE OUTER-CAPE THIS
MORNING.  ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...MOST AREAS WERE DRY AT MID
MORNING BUT STARTING TO SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SPOT SHOWERS.

EXPECT SCATTERED HIT AND MISS SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE PREVALENT
ACROSS THE REGION BY AFTERNOON.  THE REASON IS THAT WERE QUITE COLD
ALOFT GIVEN THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW TO OUR WEST.  THIS SHOULD GENERATE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO INCREASE A BIT IN
COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON.  THERE IS EVEN THE LOW PROBABILITY FOR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

ALL IN ALL...WHILE SCATTERED HIT AND MISS SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT.  HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF
DRIZZLE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH DRY AIR ALOFT.
FARTHER INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND WESTERN MA A STEADIER RAIN IS
POSSIBLE AS COMMA HEAD RAINS MAY CLIP THIS REGION WHILE BULK OF RAIN
IS CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...NOT MUCH OF A DROP OFF GIVEN ONSHORE FLOW/CLOUDS AND
LIGHT PRECIP.

WEDNESDAY...

TRAILING SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND THEN
TAKES AIM AT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER IN THE DAY. STRONG SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE AND RESULTS IN COASTAL LOW OFF NJ
COAST TO INTENSIFY. THUS SLUG OF HEAVY RAIN LIKELY TO MOVE ONSHORE
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY. IN ADDITION AS DRY SLOT
APPROACHES THETA-E LAPSE RATES BEGIN TO DECREASE. THUS EMBEDDED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE AND WOULD ENHANCE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE RISK URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AND MAY IMPACT
THE EVENING COMMUTE.

TEMPS SIMILAR AS TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE L60S OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND
COOLING INTO THE 50S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

WITH FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MID TERM REGARDING A
SLOW MEANDERING AND STACKED LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING JUST TO THE S
OF SRN NEW ENGLAND...A GENERAL CONSENSUS BLEND WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE FOR THIS FORECAST. FOR THE REMAINDER...TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK...THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A BIT OF A
HIGHER AMPLIFICATION BIAS /SOMEWHAT TYPICAL OF THIS MODEL/. WHILE
OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS AND SEVERAL OF IT/S OWN ENSEMBLES ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH A SECONDARY KICKER WAVE AND HIGH PRES.
THEREFORE...WILL ADD LESS WEIGHT TO THE ECMWF BY THE LATE WEEK AND
WEEKEND-EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE KEY FEATURE INITIALLY IS A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF LOW PRES WITH ATTENDANT OCCLUDING SFC LOW THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK. IT/S NOT UNTIL A KICKER WAVE /DEEPENING WAVE EJECTING
OUT OF THE CANADIAN W/ MOVES IN ON SAT THAT THE LOW PRES MOVES
FULLY INTO THE MARITIMES AND ALLOWS DRIER AIR TO FULLY BUILD IN.
THEREFORE...EXPECT THE WET/GRAY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRI
WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM THEN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
AT THIS POINT ALL FEATURES LINE UP FOR THE POTENTIALLY WETTEST
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. IN ESSENCE A REINFORCING LLJ /ABOUT 40+ KT
MAINLY N OF THE BOX CWA/ MOVES IN COMBINED WITH UPPER LVL DRY SLOT
AND NEAR 6.0+ C/KM LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE...LOOKS LIKE A DECENT
SETUP FOR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH THIS LLJ PARTICULARLY BETWEEN
00Z AND 12Z ON THU. WITH MODEST PWATS UP TO 1.5 INCHES /ABOUT 2+
STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/. COULD SEE POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
ON THU AS THE LLJ AND DRY SLOT SHIFT N. RIGHT NOW THE PRIMARY
THREAT WOULD BE THE TYPICAL URBAN AREAS WHERE DRAINAGE IS POOR FOR
ANY NUISANCE FLOODING...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS OVER
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE GRAY/DAMP CONDITIONS
CONTINUE WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER. DUE
TO THIS CLOUD COVER...SUSPECT THAT LOWS REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 50S
AND HIGHS ONLY RISE INTO THE MID 50S AND LOW 60S.

FRI...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS THE UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF
CANADA BEGINS TO FORCE THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF TO THE E AND WEAKENS
IT. STILL ENOUGH UPPER LVL COOL AIR AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A FEW
MORE SHOWERS. SO THE GRAY/WET CONDITIONS CONTINUE...BUT WITH A
MORE N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...THESE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO BE
FEWER AND FARTHER BETWEEN. TEMPS A BIT WARMER...MAINLY UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S.

SAT AND SUN...
SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY RELEASE THE REGION FROM
THE GRIPS OF THE CUTOFF. AT THIS POINT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING
IN...MAY ONLY SEE CLOUD COVER WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MAINLY SAT NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUN. THE DIFFERENCES IN AMPLIFICATION BETWEEN MODELS MAKE
IT DIFFICULT TO TELL EXACTLY HOW DEEP THE COLD AIR GETS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN...BUT WITH FULL MIXING HIGHS OF LOW-MID 60S ARE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S.

MON AND TUE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR AND MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS. TEMPS MAY BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...IF NOT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP THE COOL AIR BECOMES AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAY TODAY ALTHOUGH WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING
CIGS. THE EXCEPTION IS NANTUCKET WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING.  IN
ADDITION...SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON MAY RESULT IN
BRIEF LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS. THERE IS EVEN A LOW PROBABILITY OF AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...

MAIN AREA OF RAIN LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND.
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BE COMMON ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TERMINALS WITH VFR/MVFR TRENDING TOWARD IFR LATE TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...

IFR/MVFR WITH MOST OF THE RAIN CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER
A NEW AREA OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE ONSHORE TO THE SOUTH COAST LATE IN
THE DAY. E-NE WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AS WELL.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING AND DETAILS.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING AND DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
MAINLY IFR/MVFR WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. LOW CIGS AND
VSBYS IN HEAVIER RAIN AND FOG. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THROUGH
THE PERIOD. CHANCE FOR LLWS ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU
MORNING WITH UP TO 40 KT POSSIBLE AT AROUND 2KFT ESPECIALLY
TERMINALS N OF THE MASS PIKE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
IMPROVING TO VFR. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN SOUTHERN NH AND EASTERN MASS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WED/...

TODAY...

STRONGEST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN MA
WATERS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. THUS SCA POSTED FOR THAT AREA.
HEAVY RAIN WITH LOW RISK OF T-STORMS ACROSS THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE
LIGHTER WINDS AND SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...

EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS. LOW RISK OF 25 KT OVER CAPE ANN WATERS.
VSBY REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE.

WEDNESDAY...

HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDER MOVES SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WATERS AND THEN ONSHORE LATE IN THE DAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS 15-20 KT. VSBY REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND HEAVY
RAIN LATE IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
MAINLY E-NE FLOW ALONG THE WATERS WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. THEN
SHIFTING TO NW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THU. A FEW WIND
GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE WED NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE N
WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ELSEWHERE. THE
WINDS DROP OFF AS THEY SHIFT THU...BUT THEN GUST AGAIN TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE DAY THU. OTHERWISE...SEAS BUILD WED
NIGHT INTO THU MORNING WITH AT LEAST 5-9 FT SEAS POSSIBLE. SOME
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING.

FRI...
LOW PRES MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE...WINDS AND SEAS MAY STILL REACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE DAY FRI AND INTO FRI
NIGHT...BUT EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT.

SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 211306
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
905 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS
AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

***SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS BY AFTERNOON BUT A
  WASHOUT IS NOT EXPECTED***

905 AM UPDATE...

BAND OF HEAVY RAIN BEING GENERATED BY CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
AFFECT NANTUCKET AND PERHAPS A PORTION OF THE OUTER-CAPE THIS
MORNING.  ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...MOST AREAS WERE DRY AT MID
MORNING BUT STARTING TO SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SPOT SHOWERS.

EXPECT SCATTERED HIT AND MISS SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE PREVALENT
ACROSS THE REGION BY AFTERNOON.  THE REASON IS THAT WERE QUITE COLD
ALOFT GIVEN THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW TO OUR WEST.  THIS SHOULD GENERATE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO INCREASE A BIT IN
COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON.  THERE IS EVEN THE LOW PROBABILITY FOR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

ALL IN ALL...WHILE SCATTERED HIT AND MISS SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT.  HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF
DRIZZLE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH DRY AIR ALOFT.
FARTHER INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND WESTERN MA A STEADIER RAIN IS
POSSIBLE AS COMMA HEAD RAINS MAY CLIP THIS REGION WHILE BULK OF RAIN
IS CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...NOT MUCH OF A DROP OFF GIVEN ONSHORE FLOW/CLOUDS AND
LIGHT PRECIP.

WEDNESDAY...

TRAILING SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND THEN
TAKES AIM AT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER IN THE DAY. STRONG SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE AND RESULTS IN COASTAL LOW OFF NJ
COAST TO INTENSIFY. THUS SLUG OF HEAVY RAIN LIKELY TO MOVE ONSHORE
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY. IN ADDITION AS DRY SLOT
APPROACHES THETA-E LAPSE RATES BEGIN TO DECREASE. THUS EMBEDDED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE AND WOULD ENHANCE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE RISK URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AND MAY IMPACT
THE EVENING COMMUTE.

TEMPS SIMILAR AS TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE L60S OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND
COOLING INTO THE 50S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

WITH FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MID TERM REGARDING A
SLOW MEANDERING AND STACKED LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING JUST TO THE S
OF SRN NEW ENGLAND...A GENERAL CONSENSUS BLEND WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE FOR THIS FORECAST. FOR THE REMAINDER...TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK...THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A BIT OF A
HIGHER AMPLIFICATION BIAS /SOMEWHAT TYPICAL OF THIS MODEL/. WHILE
OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS AND SEVERAL OF IT/S OWN ENSEMBLES ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH A SECONDARY KICKER WAVE AND HIGH PRES.
THEREFORE...WILL ADD LESS WEIGHT TO THE ECMWF BY THE LATE WEEK AND
WEEKEND-EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE KEY FEATURE INITIALLY IS A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF LOW PRES WITH ATTENDANT OCCLUDING SFC LOW THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK. IT/S NOT UNTIL A KICKER WAVE /DEEPENING WAVE EJECTING
OUT OF THE CANADIAN W/ MOVES IN ON SAT THAT THE LOW PRES MOVES
FULLY INTO THE MARITIMES AND ALLOWS DRIER AIR TO FULLY BUILD IN.
THEREFORE...EXPECT THE WET/GRAY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRI
WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM THEN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
AT THIS POINT ALL FEATURES LINE UP FOR THE POTENTIALLY WETTEST
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. IN ESSENCE A REINFORCING LLJ /ABOUT 40+ KT
MAINLY N OF THE BOX CWA/ MOVES IN COMBINED WITH UPPER LVL DRY SLOT
AND NEAR 6.0+ C/KM LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE...LOOKS LIKE A DECENT
SETUP FOR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH THIS LLJ PARTICULARLY BETWEEN
00Z AND 12Z ON THU. WITH MODEST PWATS UP TO 1.5 INCHES /ABOUT 2+
STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/. COULD SEE POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
ON THU AS THE LLJ AND DRY SLOT SHIFT N. RIGHT NOW THE PRIMARY
THREAT WOULD BE THE TYPICAL URBAN AREAS WHERE DRAINAGE IS POOR FOR
ANY NUISANCE FLOODING...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS OVER
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE GRAY/DAMP CONDITIONS
CONTINUE WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER. DUE
TO THIS CLOUD COVER...SUSPECT THAT LOWS REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 50S
AND HIGHS ONLY RISE INTO THE MID 50S AND LOW 60S.

FRI...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS THE UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF
CANADA BEGINS TO FORCE THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF TO THE E AND WEAKENS
IT. STILL ENOUGH UPPER LVL COOL AIR AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A FEW
MORE SHOWERS. SO THE GRAY/WET CONDITIONS CONTINUE...BUT WITH A
MORE N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...THESE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO BE
FEWER AND FARTHER BETWEEN. TEMPS A BIT WARMER...MAINLY UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S.

SAT AND SUN...
SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY RELEASE THE REGION FROM
THE GRIPS OF THE CUTOFF. AT THIS POINT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING
IN...MAY ONLY SEE CLOUD COVER WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MAINLY SAT NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUN. THE DIFFERENCES IN AMPLIFICATION BETWEEN MODELS MAKE
IT DIFFICULT TO TELL EXACTLY HOW DEEP THE COLD AIR GETS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN...BUT WITH FULL MIXING HIGHS OF LOW-MID 60S ARE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S.

MON AND TUE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR AND MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS. TEMPS MAY BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...IF NOT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP THE COOL AIR BECOMES AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAY TODAY ALTHOUGH WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING
CIGS. THE EXCEPTION IS NANTUCKET WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING.  IN
ADDITION...SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON MAY RESULT IN
BRIEF LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS. THERE IS EVEN A LOW PROBABILITY OF AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...

MAIN AREA OF RAIN LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND.
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BE COMMON ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TERMINALS WITH VFR/MVFR TRENDING TOWARD IFR LATE TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...

IFR/MVFR WITH MOST OF THE RAIN CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER
A NEW AREA OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE ONSHORE TO THE SOUTH COAST LATE IN
THE DAY. E-NE WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AS WELL.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING AND DETAILS.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING AND DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
MAINLY IFR/MVFR WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. LOW CIGS AND
VSBYS IN HEAVIER RAIN AND FOG. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THROUGH
THE PERIOD. CHANCE FOR LLWS ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU
MORNING WITH UP TO 40 KT POSSIBLE AT AROUND 2KFT ESPECIALLY
TERMINALS N OF THE MASS PIKE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
IMPROVING TO VFR. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN SOUTHERN NH AND EASTERN MASS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WED/...

TODAY...

STRONGEST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN MA
WATERS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. THUS SCA POSTED FOR THAT AREA.
HEAVY RAIN WITH LOW RISK OF T-STORMS ACROSS THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE
LIGHTER WINDS AND SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...

EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS. LOW RISK OF 25 KT OVER CAPE ANN WATERS.
VSBY REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE.

WEDNESDAY...

HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDER MOVES SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WATERS AND THEN ONSHORE LATE IN THE DAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS 15-20 KT. VSBY REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND HEAVY
RAIN LATE IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
MAINLY E-NE FLOW ALONG THE WATERS WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. THEN
SHIFTING TO NW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THU. A FEW WIND
GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE WED NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE N
WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ELSEWHERE. THE
WINDS DROP OFF AS THEY SHIFT THU...BUT THEN GUST AGAIN TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE DAY THU. OTHERWISE...SEAS BUILD WED
NIGHT INTO THU MORNING WITH AT LEAST 5-9 FT SEAS POSSIBLE. SOME
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING.

FRI...
LOW PRES MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE...WINDS AND SEAS MAY STILL REACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE DAY FRI AND INTO FRI
NIGHT...BUT EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT.

SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 211128
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
728 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS
AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
ACCORDING TO LATEST MSAS/LAPS MASS FIELDS...LOW PRES NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES IS SLOWLY BEGINNING TO TRANSFER ENERGY TO DEVELOPING
COASTAL WAVE JUST OFF OF THE NJ COAST THIS MORNING. THIS SECONDARY
FEATURE IS ASSISTED BY MODERATE LLJ WHICH IS CURRENTLY
MANIFESTING ITSELF AS A REGION OF MOD-HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CURRENTLY PASSING JUST TO THE S OF THE
ISLANDS. THIS FEATURES IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
THIS MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING NE AS THE LOW PRES CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP TO THE S. WHAT THIS MEANS IS SHOWERS FOR THE CAPE/ISLANDS
THIS MORNING...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING -SHRA ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE
INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. TRIED TO REFLECT THIS IN
THE MORNING TAF UPDATE. OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TROUGH AMPLIFICATION TAKING PLACE
OVER THE OH VLY INTO PA AND NY STATE. IN RESPONSE TO THIS
AMPLIFICATION WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND ASSOCIATED RAINS DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH...ALONG WITH
ANOTHER AREA RI...SOUTHEAST MA AND ADJACENT WATERS. THIS SECOND AREA
SHOULD BECOME THE FOCUS FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND
INCREASES IN MAGNITUDE ACROSS THIS AREA. THIS DIFFERENTIAL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL YIELD ELEVATED INSTABILITY INCREASING THE RISK OF
EMBEDDED CONVECTION WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT RAINS ACROSS CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

THE 00Z GUID INCLUDING THE LATEST RAP13/W-ARW/HRRR AND THE 03Z SREF
ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON ANY HEAVIER RAINBANDS AND EMBEDDED
CONVECTION TO TRACK OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...AND POSSIBLY
OFFSHORE. THUS HAVE CONFINED CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDER TO THE
REGION. RISK OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE FROM ABOUT 15Z TO 21Z TODAY AND
CONFINED TO CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

ELSEWHERE NOT MUCH APPRECIABLE RAINFALL TODAY. MAINLY PERIODS OF
RAIN AND FOR THE MOST PART ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

AS FOR TEMPS...ON THE MILD SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF RI AND SOUTHEAST MA AS WARM SECTOR OVERSPREADS THIS
REGION. FARTHER INLAND COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF
DRIZZLE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH DRY AIR ALOFT.
FARTHER INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND WESTERN MA A STEADIER RAIN IS
POSSIBLE AS COMMA HEAD RAINS MAY CLIP THIS REGION WHILE BULK OF RAIN
IS CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...NOT MUCH OF A DROP OFF GIVEN ONSHORE FLOW/CLOUDS AND
LIGHT PRECIP.

WEDNESDAY...

TRAILING SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND THEN
TAKES AIM AT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER IN THE DAY. STRONG SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE AND RESULTS IN COASTAL LOW OFF NJ
COAST TO INTENSIFY. THUS SLUG OF HEAVY RAIN LIKELY TO MOVE ONSHORE
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY. IN ADDITION AS DRY SLOT
APPROACHES THETA-E LAPSE RATES BEGIN TO DECREASE. THUS EMBEDDED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE AND WOULD ENHANCE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE RISK URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AND MAY IMPACT
THE EVENING COMMUTE.

TEMPS SIMILAR AS TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE L60S OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND
COOLING INTO THE 50S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

WITH FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MID TERM REGARDING A
SLOW MEANDERING AND STACKED LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING JUST TO THE S
OF SRN NEW ENGLAND...A GENERAL CONSENSUS BLEND WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE FOR THIS FORECAST. FOR THE REMAINDER...TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK...THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A BIT OF A
HIGHER AMPLIFICATION BIAS /SOMEWHAT TYPICAL OF THIS MODEL/. WHILE
OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS AND SEVERAL OF IT/S OWN ENSEMBLES ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH A SECONDARY KICKER WAVE AND HIGH PRES.
THEREFORE...WILL ADD LESS WEIGHT TO THE ECMWF BY THE LATE WEEK AND
WEEKEND-EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE KEY FEATURE INITIALLY IS A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF LOW PRES WITH ATTENDANT OCCLUDING SFC LOW THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK. IT/S NOT UNTIL A KICKER WAVE /DEEPENING WAVE EJECTING
OUT OF THE CANADIAN W/ MOVES IN ON SAT THAT THE LOW PRES MOVES
FULLY INTO THE MARITIMES AND ALLOWS DRIER AIR TO FULLY BUILD IN.
THEREFORE...EXPECT THE WET/GRAY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRI
WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM THEN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
AT THIS POINT ALL FEATURES LINE UP FOR THE POTENTIALLY WETTEST
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. IN ESSENCE A REINFORCING LLJ /ABOUT 40+ KT
MAINLY N OF THE BOX CWA/ MOVES IN COMBINED WITH UPPER LVL DRY SLOT
AND NEAR 6.0+ C/KM LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE...LOOKS LIKE A DECENT
SETUP FOR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH THIS LLJ PARTICULARLY BETWEEN
00Z AND 12Z ON THU. WITH MODEST PWATS UP TO 1.5 INCHES /ABOUT 2+
STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/. COULD SEE POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
ON THU AS THE LLJ AND DRY SLOT SHIFT N. RIGHT NOW THE PRIMARY
THREAT WOULD BE THE TYPICAL URBAN AREAS WHERE DRAINAGE IS POOR FOR
ANY NUISANCE FLOODING...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS OVER
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE GRAY/DAMP CONDITIONS
CONTINUE WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER. DUE
TO THIS CLOUD COVER...SUSPECT THAT LOWS REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 50S
AND HIGHS ONLY RISE INTO THE MID 50S AND LOW 60S.

FRI...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS THE UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF
CANADA BEGINS TO FORCE THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF TO THE E AND WEAKENS
IT. STILL ENOUGH UPPER LVL COOL AIR AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A FEW
MORE SHOWERS. SO THE GRAY/WET CONDITIONS CONTINUE...BUT WITH A
MORE N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...THESE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO BE
FEWER AND FARTHER BETWEEN. TEMPS A BIT WARMER...MAINLY UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S.

SAT AND SUN...
SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY RELEASE THE REGION FROM
THE GRIPS OF THE CUTOFF. AT THIS POINT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING
IN...MAY ONLY SEE CLOUD COVER WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MAINLY SAT NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUN. THE DIFFERENCES IN AMPLIFICATION BETWEEN MODELS MAKE
IT DIFFICULT TO TELL EXACTLY HOW DEEP THE COLD AIR GETS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN...BUT WITH FULL MIXING HIGHS OF LOW-MID 60S ARE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S.

MON AND TUE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR AND MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS. TEMPS MAY BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...IF NOT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP THE COOL AIR BECOMES AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAY TODAY ALTHOUGH WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING
CIGS. THE MAIN CAVEAT HERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS
/POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES/ MAINLY FOR THE CAPE/ISLANDS THIS MORNING
WITH MVFR /AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR/ CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. INCREASING
THREAT FOR SHOWERS LATE.

TONIGHT...

MAIN AREA OF RAIN LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND.
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BE COMMON ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TERMINALS WITH VFR/MVFR TRENDING TOWARD IFR LATE TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...

IFR/MVFR WITH MOST OF THE RAIN CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER
A NEW AREA OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE ONSHORE TO THE SOUTH COAST LATE IN
THE DAY. E-NE WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AS WELL.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING AND DETAILS.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING AND DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
MAINLY IFR/MVFR WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. LOW CIGS AND
VSBYS IN HEAVIER RAIN AND FOG. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THROUGH
THE PERIOD. CHANCE FOR LLWS ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU
MORNING WITH UP TO 40 KT POSSIBLE AT AROUND 2KFT ESPECIALLY
TERMINALS N OF THE MASS PIKE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
IMPROVING TO VFR. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN SOUTHERN NH AND EASTERN MASS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WED/...

TODAY...

STRONGEST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN MA
WATERS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. THUS SCA POSTED FOR THAT AREA.
HEAVY RAIN WITH LOW RISK OF T-STORMS ACROSS THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE
LIGHTER WINDS AND SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...

EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS. LOW RISK OF 25 KT OVER CAPE ANN WATERS.
VSBY REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE.

WEDNESDAY...

HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDER MOVES SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WATERS AND THEN ONSHORE LATE IN THE DAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS 15-20 KT. VSBY REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND HEAVY
RAIN LATE IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
MAINLY E-NE FLOW ALONG THE WATERS WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. THEN
SHIFTING TO NW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THU. A FEW WIND
GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE WED NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE N
WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ELSEWHERE. THE
WINDS DROP OFF AS THEY SHIFT THU...BUT THEN GUST AGAIN TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE DAY THU. OTHERWISE...SEAS BUILD WED
NIGHT INTO THU MORNING WITH AT LEAST 5-9 FT SEAS POSSIBLE. SOME
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING.

FRI...
LOW PRES MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE...WINDS AND SEAS MAY STILL REACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE DAY FRI AND INTO FRI
NIGHT...BUT EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT.

SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DOODY
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 211128
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
728 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS
AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
ACCORDING TO LATEST MSAS/LAPS MASS FIELDS...LOW PRES NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES IS SLOWLY BEGINNING TO TRANSFER ENERGY TO DEVELOPING
COASTAL WAVE JUST OFF OF THE NJ COAST THIS MORNING. THIS SECONDARY
FEATURE IS ASSISTED BY MODERATE LLJ WHICH IS CURRENTLY
MANIFESTING ITSELF AS A REGION OF MOD-HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CURRENTLY PASSING JUST TO THE S OF THE
ISLANDS. THIS FEATURES IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
THIS MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING NE AS THE LOW PRES CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP TO THE S. WHAT THIS MEANS IS SHOWERS FOR THE CAPE/ISLANDS
THIS MORNING...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING -SHRA ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE
INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. TRIED TO REFLECT THIS IN
THE MORNING TAF UPDATE. OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TROUGH AMPLIFICATION TAKING PLACE
OVER THE OH VLY INTO PA AND NY STATE. IN RESPONSE TO THIS
AMPLIFICATION WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND ASSOCIATED RAINS DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH...ALONG WITH
ANOTHER AREA RI...SOUTHEAST MA AND ADJACENT WATERS. THIS SECOND AREA
SHOULD BECOME THE FOCUS FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND
INCREASES IN MAGNITUDE ACROSS THIS AREA. THIS DIFFERENTIAL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL YIELD ELEVATED INSTABILITY INCREASING THE RISK OF
EMBEDDED CONVECTION WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT RAINS ACROSS CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

THE 00Z GUID INCLUDING THE LATEST RAP13/W-ARW/HRRR AND THE 03Z SREF
ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON ANY HEAVIER RAINBANDS AND EMBEDDED
CONVECTION TO TRACK OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...AND POSSIBLY
OFFSHORE. THUS HAVE CONFINED CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDER TO THE
REGION. RISK OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE FROM ABOUT 15Z TO 21Z TODAY AND
CONFINED TO CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

ELSEWHERE NOT MUCH APPRECIABLE RAINFALL TODAY. MAINLY PERIODS OF
RAIN AND FOR THE MOST PART ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

AS FOR TEMPS...ON THE MILD SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF RI AND SOUTHEAST MA AS WARM SECTOR OVERSPREADS THIS
REGION. FARTHER INLAND COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF
DRIZZLE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH DRY AIR ALOFT.
FARTHER INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND WESTERN MA A STEADIER RAIN IS
POSSIBLE AS COMMA HEAD RAINS MAY CLIP THIS REGION WHILE BULK OF RAIN
IS CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...NOT MUCH OF A DROP OFF GIVEN ONSHORE FLOW/CLOUDS AND
LIGHT PRECIP.

WEDNESDAY...

TRAILING SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND THEN
TAKES AIM AT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER IN THE DAY. STRONG SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE AND RESULTS IN COASTAL LOW OFF NJ
COAST TO INTENSIFY. THUS SLUG OF HEAVY RAIN LIKELY TO MOVE ONSHORE
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY. IN ADDITION AS DRY SLOT
APPROACHES THETA-E LAPSE RATES BEGIN TO DECREASE. THUS EMBEDDED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE AND WOULD ENHANCE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE RISK URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AND MAY IMPACT
THE EVENING COMMUTE.

TEMPS SIMILAR AS TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE L60S OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND
COOLING INTO THE 50S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

WITH FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MID TERM REGARDING A
SLOW MEANDERING AND STACKED LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING JUST TO THE S
OF SRN NEW ENGLAND...A GENERAL CONSENSUS BLEND WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE FOR THIS FORECAST. FOR THE REMAINDER...TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK...THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A BIT OF A
HIGHER AMPLIFICATION BIAS /SOMEWHAT TYPICAL OF THIS MODEL/. WHILE
OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS AND SEVERAL OF IT/S OWN ENSEMBLES ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH A SECONDARY KICKER WAVE AND HIGH PRES.
THEREFORE...WILL ADD LESS WEIGHT TO THE ECMWF BY THE LATE WEEK AND
WEEKEND-EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE KEY FEATURE INITIALLY IS A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF LOW PRES WITH ATTENDANT OCCLUDING SFC LOW THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK. IT/S NOT UNTIL A KICKER WAVE /DEEPENING WAVE EJECTING
OUT OF THE CANADIAN W/ MOVES IN ON SAT THAT THE LOW PRES MOVES
FULLY INTO THE MARITIMES AND ALLOWS DRIER AIR TO FULLY BUILD IN.
THEREFORE...EXPECT THE WET/GRAY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRI
WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM THEN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
AT THIS POINT ALL FEATURES LINE UP FOR THE POTENTIALLY WETTEST
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. IN ESSENCE A REINFORCING LLJ /ABOUT 40+ KT
MAINLY N OF THE BOX CWA/ MOVES IN COMBINED WITH UPPER LVL DRY SLOT
AND NEAR 6.0+ C/KM LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE...LOOKS LIKE A DECENT
SETUP FOR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH THIS LLJ PARTICULARLY BETWEEN
00Z AND 12Z ON THU. WITH MODEST PWATS UP TO 1.5 INCHES /ABOUT 2+
STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/. COULD SEE POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
ON THU AS THE LLJ AND DRY SLOT SHIFT N. RIGHT NOW THE PRIMARY
THREAT WOULD BE THE TYPICAL URBAN AREAS WHERE DRAINAGE IS POOR FOR
ANY NUISANCE FLOODING...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS OVER
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE GRAY/DAMP CONDITIONS
CONTINUE WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER. DUE
TO THIS CLOUD COVER...SUSPECT THAT LOWS REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 50S
AND HIGHS ONLY RISE INTO THE MID 50S AND LOW 60S.

FRI...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS THE UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF
CANADA BEGINS TO FORCE THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF TO THE E AND WEAKENS
IT. STILL ENOUGH UPPER LVL COOL AIR AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A FEW
MORE SHOWERS. SO THE GRAY/WET CONDITIONS CONTINUE...BUT WITH A
MORE N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...THESE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO BE
FEWER AND FARTHER BETWEEN. TEMPS A BIT WARMER...MAINLY UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S.

SAT AND SUN...
SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY RELEASE THE REGION FROM
THE GRIPS OF THE CUTOFF. AT THIS POINT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING
IN...MAY ONLY SEE CLOUD COVER WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MAINLY SAT NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUN. THE DIFFERENCES IN AMPLIFICATION BETWEEN MODELS MAKE
IT DIFFICULT TO TELL EXACTLY HOW DEEP THE COLD AIR GETS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN...BUT WITH FULL MIXING HIGHS OF LOW-MID 60S ARE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S.

MON AND TUE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR AND MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS. TEMPS MAY BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...IF NOT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP THE COOL AIR BECOMES AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAY TODAY ALTHOUGH WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING
CIGS. THE MAIN CAVEAT HERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS
/POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES/ MAINLY FOR THE CAPE/ISLANDS THIS MORNING
WITH MVFR /AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR/ CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. INCREASING
THREAT FOR SHOWERS LATE.

TONIGHT...

MAIN AREA OF RAIN LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND.
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BE COMMON ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TERMINALS WITH VFR/MVFR TRENDING TOWARD IFR LATE TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...

IFR/MVFR WITH MOST OF THE RAIN CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER
A NEW AREA OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE ONSHORE TO THE SOUTH COAST LATE IN
THE DAY. E-NE WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AS WELL.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING AND DETAILS.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING AND DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
MAINLY IFR/MVFR WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. LOW CIGS AND
VSBYS IN HEAVIER RAIN AND FOG. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THROUGH
THE PERIOD. CHANCE FOR LLWS ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU
MORNING WITH UP TO 40 KT POSSIBLE AT AROUND 2KFT ESPECIALLY
TERMINALS N OF THE MASS PIKE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
IMPROVING TO VFR. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN SOUTHERN NH AND EASTERN MASS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WED/...

TODAY...

STRONGEST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN MA
WATERS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. THUS SCA POSTED FOR THAT AREA.
HEAVY RAIN WITH LOW RISK OF T-STORMS ACROSS THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE
LIGHTER WINDS AND SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...

EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS. LOW RISK OF 25 KT OVER CAPE ANN WATERS.
VSBY REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE.

WEDNESDAY...

HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDER MOVES SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WATERS AND THEN ONSHORE LATE IN THE DAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS 15-20 KT. VSBY REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND HEAVY
RAIN LATE IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
MAINLY E-NE FLOW ALONG THE WATERS WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. THEN
SHIFTING TO NW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THU. A FEW WIND
GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE WED NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE N
WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ELSEWHERE. THE
WINDS DROP OFF AS THEY SHIFT THU...BUT THEN GUST AGAIN TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE DAY THU. OTHERWISE...SEAS BUILD WED
NIGHT INTO THU MORNING WITH AT LEAST 5-9 FT SEAS POSSIBLE. SOME
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING.

FRI...
LOW PRES MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE...WINDS AND SEAS MAY STILL REACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE DAY FRI AND INTO FRI
NIGHT...BUT EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT.

SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DOODY
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 211128
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
728 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS
AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
ACCORDING TO LATEST MSAS/LAPS MASS FIELDS...LOW PRES NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES IS SLOWLY BEGINNING TO TRANSFER ENERGY TO DEVELOPING
COASTAL WAVE JUST OFF OF THE NJ COAST THIS MORNING. THIS SECONDARY
FEATURE IS ASSISTED BY MODERATE LLJ WHICH IS CURRENTLY
MANIFESTING ITSELF AS A REGION OF MOD-HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CURRENTLY PASSING JUST TO THE S OF THE
ISLANDS. THIS FEATURES IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
THIS MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING NE AS THE LOW PRES CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP TO THE S. WHAT THIS MEANS IS SHOWERS FOR THE CAPE/ISLANDS
THIS MORNING...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING -SHRA ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE
INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. TRIED TO REFLECT THIS IN
THE MORNING TAF UPDATE. OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TROUGH AMPLIFICATION TAKING PLACE
OVER THE OH VLY INTO PA AND NY STATE. IN RESPONSE TO THIS
AMPLIFICATION WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND ASSOCIATED RAINS DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH...ALONG WITH
ANOTHER AREA RI...SOUTHEAST MA AND ADJACENT WATERS. THIS SECOND AREA
SHOULD BECOME THE FOCUS FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND
INCREASES IN MAGNITUDE ACROSS THIS AREA. THIS DIFFERENTIAL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL YIELD ELEVATED INSTABILITY INCREASING THE RISK OF
EMBEDDED CONVECTION WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT RAINS ACROSS CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

THE 00Z GUID INCLUDING THE LATEST RAP13/W-ARW/HRRR AND THE 03Z SREF
ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON ANY HEAVIER RAINBANDS AND EMBEDDED
CONVECTION TO TRACK OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...AND POSSIBLY
OFFSHORE. THUS HAVE CONFINED CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDER TO THE
REGION. RISK OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE FROM ABOUT 15Z TO 21Z TODAY AND
CONFINED TO CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

ELSEWHERE NOT MUCH APPRECIABLE RAINFALL TODAY. MAINLY PERIODS OF
RAIN AND FOR THE MOST PART ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

AS FOR TEMPS...ON THE MILD SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF RI AND SOUTHEAST MA AS WARM SECTOR OVERSPREADS THIS
REGION. FARTHER INLAND COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF
DRIZZLE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH DRY AIR ALOFT.
FARTHER INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND WESTERN MA A STEADIER RAIN IS
POSSIBLE AS COMMA HEAD RAINS MAY CLIP THIS REGION WHILE BULK OF RAIN
IS CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...NOT MUCH OF A DROP OFF GIVEN ONSHORE FLOW/CLOUDS AND
LIGHT PRECIP.

WEDNESDAY...

TRAILING SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND THEN
TAKES AIM AT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER IN THE DAY. STRONG SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE AND RESULTS IN COASTAL LOW OFF NJ
COAST TO INTENSIFY. THUS SLUG OF HEAVY RAIN LIKELY TO MOVE ONSHORE
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY. IN ADDITION AS DRY SLOT
APPROACHES THETA-E LAPSE RATES BEGIN TO DECREASE. THUS EMBEDDED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE AND WOULD ENHANCE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE RISK URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AND MAY IMPACT
THE EVENING COMMUTE.

TEMPS SIMILAR AS TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE L60S OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND
COOLING INTO THE 50S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

WITH FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MID TERM REGARDING A
SLOW MEANDERING AND STACKED LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING JUST TO THE S
OF SRN NEW ENGLAND...A GENERAL CONSENSUS BLEND WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE FOR THIS FORECAST. FOR THE REMAINDER...TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK...THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A BIT OF A
HIGHER AMPLIFICATION BIAS /SOMEWHAT TYPICAL OF THIS MODEL/. WHILE
OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS AND SEVERAL OF IT/S OWN ENSEMBLES ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH A SECONDARY KICKER WAVE AND HIGH PRES.
THEREFORE...WILL ADD LESS WEIGHT TO THE ECMWF BY THE LATE WEEK AND
WEEKEND-EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE KEY FEATURE INITIALLY IS A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF LOW PRES WITH ATTENDANT OCCLUDING SFC LOW THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK. IT/S NOT UNTIL A KICKER WAVE /DEEPENING WAVE EJECTING
OUT OF THE CANADIAN W/ MOVES IN ON SAT THAT THE LOW PRES MOVES
FULLY INTO THE MARITIMES AND ALLOWS DRIER AIR TO FULLY BUILD IN.
THEREFORE...EXPECT THE WET/GRAY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRI
WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM THEN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
AT THIS POINT ALL FEATURES LINE UP FOR THE POTENTIALLY WETTEST
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. IN ESSENCE A REINFORCING LLJ /ABOUT 40+ KT
MAINLY N OF THE BOX CWA/ MOVES IN COMBINED WITH UPPER LVL DRY SLOT
AND NEAR 6.0+ C/KM LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE...LOOKS LIKE A DECENT
SETUP FOR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH THIS LLJ PARTICULARLY BETWEEN
00Z AND 12Z ON THU. WITH MODEST PWATS UP TO 1.5 INCHES /ABOUT 2+
STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/. COULD SEE POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
ON THU AS THE LLJ AND DRY SLOT SHIFT N. RIGHT NOW THE PRIMARY
THREAT WOULD BE THE TYPICAL URBAN AREAS WHERE DRAINAGE IS POOR FOR
ANY NUISANCE FLOODING...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS OVER
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE GRAY/DAMP CONDITIONS
CONTINUE WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER. DUE
TO THIS CLOUD COVER...SUSPECT THAT LOWS REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 50S
AND HIGHS ONLY RISE INTO THE MID 50S AND LOW 60S.

FRI...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS THE UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF
CANADA BEGINS TO FORCE THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF TO THE E AND WEAKENS
IT. STILL ENOUGH UPPER LVL COOL AIR AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A FEW
MORE SHOWERS. SO THE GRAY/WET CONDITIONS CONTINUE...BUT WITH A
MORE N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...THESE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO BE
FEWER AND FARTHER BETWEEN. TEMPS A BIT WARMER...MAINLY UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S.

SAT AND SUN...
SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY RELEASE THE REGION FROM
THE GRIPS OF THE CUTOFF. AT THIS POINT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING
IN...MAY ONLY SEE CLOUD COVER WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MAINLY SAT NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUN. THE DIFFERENCES IN AMPLIFICATION BETWEEN MODELS MAKE
IT DIFFICULT TO TELL EXACTLY HOW DEEP THE COLD AIR GETS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN...BUT WITH FULL MIXING HIGHS OF LOW-MID 60S ARE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S.

MON AND TUE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR AND MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS. TEMPS MAY BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...IF NOT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP THE COOL AIR BECOMES AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAY TODAY ALTHOUGH WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING
CIGS. THE MAIN CAVEAT HERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS
/POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES/ MAINLY FOR THE CAPE/ISLANDS THIS MORNING
WITH MVFR /AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR/ CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. INCREASING
THREAT FOR SHOWERS LATE.

TONIGHT...

MAIN AREA OF RAIN LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND.
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BE COMMON ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TERMINALS WITH VFR/MVFR TRENDING TOWARD IFR LATE TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...

IFR/MVFR WITH MOST OF THE RAIN CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER
A NEW AREA OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE ONSHORE TO THE SOUTH COAST LATE IN
THE DAY. E-NE WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AS WELL.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING AND DETAILS.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING AND DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
MAINLY IFR/MVFR WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. LOW CIGS AND
VSBYS IN HEAVIER RAIN AND FOG. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THROUGH
THE PERIOD. CHANCE FOR LLWS ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU
MORNING WITH UP TO 40 KT POSSIBLE AT AROUND 2KFT ESPECIALLY
TERMINALS N OF THE MASS PIKE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
IMPROVING TO VFR. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN SOUTHERN NH AND EASTERN MASS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WED/...

TODAY...

STRONGEST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN MA
WATERS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. THUS SCA POSTED FOR THAT AREA.
HEAVY RAIN WITH LOW RISK OF T-STORMS ACROSS THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE
LIGHTER WINDS AND SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...

EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS. LOW RISK OF 25 KT OVER CAPE ANN WATERS.
VSBY REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE.

WEDNESDAY...

HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDER MOVES SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WATERS AND THEN ONSHORE LATE IN THE DAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS 15-20 KT. VSBY REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND HEAVY
RAIN LATE IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
MAINLY E-NE FLOW ALONG THE WATERS WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. THEN
SHIFTING TO NW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THU. A FEW WIND
GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE WED NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE N
WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ELSEWHERE. THE
WINDS DROP OFF AS THEY SHIFT THU...BUT THEN GUST AGAIN TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE DAY THU. OTHERWISE...SEAS BUILD WED
NIGHT INTO THU MORNING WITH AT LEAST 5-9 FT SEAS POSSIBLE. SOME
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING.

FRI...
LOW PRES MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE...WINDS AND SEAS MAY STILL REACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE DAY FRI AND INTO FRI
NIGHT...BUT EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT.

SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DOODY
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 211128
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
728 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS
AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
ACCORDING TO LATEST MSAS/LAPS MASS FIELDS...LOW PRES NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES IS SLOWLY BEGINNING TO TRANSFER ENERGY TO DEVELOPING
COASTAL WAVE JUST OFF OF THE NJ COAST THIS MORNING. THIS SECONDARY
FEATURE IS ASSISTED BY MODERATE LLJ WHICH IS CURRENTLY
MANIFESTING ITSELF AS A REGION OF MOD-HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CURRENTLY PASSING JUST TO THE S OF THE
ISLANDS. THIS FEATURES IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
THIS MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING NE AS THE LOW PRES CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP TO THE S. WHAT THIS MEANS IS SHOWERS FOR THE CAPE/ISLANDS
THIS MORNING...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING -SHRA ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE
INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. TRIED TO REFLECT THIS IN
THE MORNING TAF UPDATE. OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TROUGH AMPLIFICATION TAKING PLACE
OVER THE OH VLY INTO PA AND NY STATE. IN RESPONSE TO THIS
AMPLIFICATION WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND ASSOCIATED RAINS DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH...ALONG WITH
ANOTHER AREA RI...SOUTHEAST MA AND ADJACENT WATERS. THIS SECOND AREA
SHOULD BECOME THE FOCUS FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND
INCREASES IN MAGNITUDE ACROSS THIS AREA. THIS DIFFERENTIAL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL YIELD ELEVATED INSTABILITY INCREASING THE RISK OF
EMBEDDED CONVECTION WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT RAINS ACROSS CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

THE 00Z GUID INCLUDING THE LATEST RAP13/W-ARW/HRRR AND THE 03Z SREF
ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON ANY HEAVIER RAINBANDS AND EMBEDDED
CONVECTION TO TRACK OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...AND POSSIBLY
OFFSHORE. THUS HAVE CONFINED CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDER TO THE
REGION. RISK OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE FROM ABOUT 15Z TO 21Z TODAY AND
CONFINED TO CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

ELSEWHERE NOT MUCH APPRECIABLE RAINFALL TODAY. MAINLY PERIODS OF
RAIN AND FOR THE MOST PART ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

AS FOR TEMPS...ON THE MILD SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF RI AND SOUTHEAST MA AS WARM SECTOR OVERSPREADS THIS
REGION. FARTHER INLAND COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF
DRIZZLE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH DRY AIR ALOFT.
FARTHER INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND WESTERN MA A STEADIER RAIN IS
POSSIBLE AS COMMA HEAD RAINS MAY CLIP THIS REGION WHILE BULK OF RAIN
IS CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...NOT MUCH OF A DROP OFF GIVEN ONSHORE FLOW/CLOUDS AND
LIGHT PRECIP.

WEDNESDAY...

TRAILING SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND THEN
TAKES AIM AT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER IN THE DAY. STRONG SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE AND RESULTS IN COASTAL LOW OFF NJ
COAST TO INTENSIFY. THUS SLUG OF HEAVY RAIN LIKELY TO MOVE ONSHORE
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY. IN ADDITION AS DRY SLOT
APPROACHES THETA-E LAPSE RATES BEGIN TO DECREASE. THUS EMBEDDED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE AND WOULD ENHANCE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE RISK URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AND MAY IMPACT
THE EVENING COMMUTE.

TEMPS SIMILAR AS TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE L60S OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND
COOLING INTO THE 50S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

WITH FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MID TERM REGARDING A
SLOW MEANDERING AND STACKED LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING JUST TO THE S
OF SRN NEW ENGLAND...A GENERAL CONSENSUS BLEND WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE FOR THIS FORECAST. FOR THE REMAINDER...TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK...THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A BIT OF A
HIGHER AMPLIFICATION BIAS /SOMEWHAT TYPICAL OF THIS MODEL/. WHILE
OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS AND SEVERAL OF IT/S OWN ENSEMBLES ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH A SECONDARY KICKER WAVE AND HIGH PRES.
THEREFORE...WILL ADD LESS WEIGHT TO THE ECMWF BY THE LATE WEEK AND
WEEKEND-EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE KEY FEATURE INITIALLY IS A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF LOW PRES WITH ATTENDANT OCCLUDING SFC LOW THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK. IT/S NOT UNTIL A KICKER WAVE /DEEPENING WAVE EJECTING
OUT OF THE CANADIAN W/ MOVES IN ON SAT THAT THE LOW PRES MOVES
FULLY INTO THE MARITIMES AND ALLOWS DRIER AIR TO FULLY BUILD IN.
THEREFORE...EXPECT THE WET/GRAY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRI
WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM THEN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
AT THIS POINT ALL FEATURES LINE UP FOR THE POTENTIALLY WETTEST
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. IN ESSENCE A REINFORCING LLJ /ABOUT 40+ KT
MAINLY N OF THE BOX CWA/ MOVES IN COMBINED WITH UPPER LVL DRY SLOT
AND NEAR 6.0+ C/KM LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE...LOOKS LIKE A DECENT
SETUP FOR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH THIS LLJ PARTICULARLY BETWEEN
00Z AND 12Z ON THU. WITH MODEST PWATS UP TO 1.5 INCHES /ABOUT 2+
STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/. COULD SEE POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
ON THU AS THE LLJ AND DRY SLOT SHIFT N. RIGHT NOW THE PRIMARY
THREAT WOULD BE THE TYPICAL URBAN AREAS WHERE DRAINAGE IS POOR FOR
ANY NUISANCE FLOODING...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS OVER
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE GRAY/DAMP CONDITIONS
CONTINUE WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER. DUE
TO THIS CLOUD COVER...SUSPECT THAT LOWS REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 50S
AND HIGHS ONLY RISE INTO THE MID 50S AND LOW 60S.

FRI...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS THE UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF
CANADA BEGINS TO FORCE THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF TO THE E AND WEAKENS
IT. STILL ENOUGH UPPER LVL COOL AIR AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A FEW
MORE SHOWERS. SO THE GRAY/WET CONDITIONS CONTINUE...BUT WITH A
MORE N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...THESE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO BE
FEWER AND FARTHER BETWEEN. TEMPS A BIT WARMER...MAINLY UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S.

SAT AND SUN...
SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY RELEASE THE REGION FROM
THE GRIPS OF THE CUTOFF. AT THIS POINT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING
IN...MAY ONLY SEE CLOUD COVER WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MAINLY SAT NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUN. THE DIFFERENCES IN AMPLIFICATION BETWEEN MODELS MAKE
IT DIFFICULT TO TELL EXACTLY HOW DEEP THE COLD AIR GETS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN...BUT WITH FULL MIXING HIGHS OF LOW-MID 60S ARE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S.

MON AND TUE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR AND MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS. TEMPS MAY BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...IF NOT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP THE COOL AIR BECOMES AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAY TODAY ALTHOUGH WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING
CIGS. THE MAIN CAVEAT HERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS
/POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES/ MAINLY FOR THE CAPE/ISLANDS THIS MORNING
WITH MVFR /AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR/ CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. INCREASING
THREAT FOR SHOWERS LATE.

TONIGHT...

MAIN AREA OF RAIN LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND.
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BE COMMON ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TERMINALS WITH VFR/MVFR TRENDING TOWARD IFR LATE TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...

IFR/MVFR WITH MOST OF THE RAIN CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER
A NEW AREA OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE ONSHORE TO THE SOUTH COAST LATE IN
THE DAY. E-NE WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AS WELL.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING AND DETAILS.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING AND DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
MAINLY IFR/MVFR WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. LOW CIGS AND
VSBYS IN HEAVIER RAIN AND FOG. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THROUGH
THE PERIOD. CHANCE FOR LLWS ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU
MORNING WITH UP TO 40 KT POSSIBLE AT AROUND 2KFT ESPECIALLY
TERMINALS N OF THE MASS PIKE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
IMPROVING TO VFR. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN SOUTHERN NH AND EASTERN MASS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WED/...

TODAY...

STRONGEST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN MA
WATERS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. THUS SCA POSTED FOR THAT AREA.
HEAVY RAIN WITH LOW RISK OF T-STORMS ACROSS THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE
LIGHTER WINDS AND SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...

EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS. LOW RISK OF 25 KT OVER CAPE ANN WATERS.
VSBY REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE.

WEDNESDAY...

HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDER MOVES SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WATERS AND THEN ONSHORE LATE IN THE DAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS 15-20 KT. VSBY REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND HEAVY
RAIN LATE IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
MAINLY E-NE FLOW ALONG THE WATERS WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. THEN
SHIFTING TO NW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THU. A FEW WIND
GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE WED NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE N
WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ELSEWHERE. THE
WINDS DROP OFF AS THEY SHIFT THU...BUT THEN GUST AGAIN TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE DAY THU. OTHERWISE...SEAS BUILD WED
NIGHT INTO THU MORNING WITH AT LEAST 5-9 FT SEAS POSSIBLE. SOME
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING.

FRI...
LOW PRES MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE...WINDS AND SEAS MAY STILL REACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE DAY FRI AND INTO FRI
NIGHT...BUT EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT.

SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DOODY
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 210830
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
430 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS
AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY...

PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TROUGH AMPLIFICATION TAKING PLACE
OVER THE OH VLY INTO PA AND NY STATE. IN RESPONSE TO THIS
AMPLIFICATION WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND ASSOCIATED RAINS DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH...ALONG WITH
ANOTHER AREA RI...SOUTHEAST MA AND ADJACENT WATERS. THIS SECOND AREA
SHOULD BECOME THE FOCUS FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND
INCREASES IN MAGNITUDE ACROSS THIS AREA. THIS DIFFERENTIAL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL YIELD ELEVATED INSTABILITY INCREASING THE RISK OF
EMBEDDED CONVECTION WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT RAINS ACROSS CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

THE 00Z GUID INCLUDING THE LATEST RAP13/W-ARW/HRRR AND THE 03Z SREF
ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON ANY HEAVIER RAINBANDS AND EMBEDDED
CONVECTION TO TRACK OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...AND POSSIBLY
OFFSHORE. THUS HAVE CONFINED CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDER TO THE
REGION. RISK OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE FROM ABOUT 15Z TO 21Z TODAY AND
CONFINED TO CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

ELSEWHERE NOT MUCH APPRECIABLE RAINFALL TODAY. MAINLY PERIODS OF
RAIN AND FOR THE MOST PART ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

AS FOR TEMPS...ON THE MILD SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF RI AND SOUTHEAST MA AS WARM SECTOR OVERSPREADS THIS
REGION. FARTHER INLAND COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF
DRIZZLE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH DRY AIR ALOFT.
FARTHER INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND WESTERN MA A STEADIER RAIN IS
POSSIBLE AS COMMA HEAD RAINS MAY CLIP THIS REGION WHILE BULK OF RAIN
IS CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...NOT MUCH OF A DROP OFF GIVEN ONSHORE FLOW/CLOUDS AND
LIGHT PRECIP.

WEDNESDAY...

TRAILING SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND THEN
TAKES AIM AT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER IN THE DAY. STRONG SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE AND RESULTS IN COASTAL LOW OFF NJ
COAST TO INTENSIFY. THUS SLUG OF HEAVY RAIN LIKELY TO MOVE ONSHORE
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY. IN ADDITION AS DRY SLOT
APPROACHES THETA-E LAPSE RATES BEGIN TO DECREASE. THUS EMBEDDED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE AND WOULD ENHANCE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE RISK URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AND MAY IMPACT
THE EVENING COMMUTE.

TEMPS SIMILAR AS TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE L60S OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND
COOLING INTO THE 50S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

WITH FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MID TERM REGARDING A
SLOW MEANDERING AND STACKED LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING JUST TO THE S
OF SRN NEW ENGLAND...A GENERAL CONSENSUS BLEND WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE FOR THIS FORECAST. FOR THE REMAINDER...TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK...THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A BIT OF A
HIGHER AMPLIFICATION BIAS /SOMEWHAT TYPICAL OF THIS MODEL/. WHILE
OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS AND SEVERAL OF IT/S OWN ENSEMBLES ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH A SECONDARY KICKER WAVE AND HIGH PRES.
THEREFORE...WILL ADD LESS WEIGHT TO THE ECMWF BY THE LATE WEEK AND
WEEKEND-EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE KEY FEATURE INITIALLY IS A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF LOW PRES WITH ATTENDANT OCCLUDING SFC LOW THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK. IT/S NOT UNTIL A KICKER WAVE /DEEPENING WAVE EJECTING
OUT OF THE CANADIAN W/ MOVES IN ON SAT THAT THE LOW PRES MOVES
FULLY INTO THE MARITIMES AND ALLOWS DRIER AIR TO FULLY BUILD IN.
THEREFORE...EXPECT THE WET/GRAY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRI
WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM THEN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
AT THIS POINT ALL FEATURES LINE UP FOR THE POTENTIALLY WETTEST
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. IN ESSENCE A REINFORCING LLJ /ABOUT 40+ KT
MAINLY N OF THE BOX CWA/ MOVES IN COMBINED WITH UPPER LVL DRY SLOT
AND NEAR 6.0+ C/KM LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE...LOOKS LIKE A DECENT
SETUP FOR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH THIS LLJ PARTICULARLY BETWEEN
00Z AND 12Z ON THU. WITH MODEST PWATS UP TO 1.5 INCHES /ABOUT 2+
STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/. COULD SEE POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
ON THU AS THE LLJ AND DRY SLOT SHIFT N. RIGHT NOW THE PRIMARY
THREAT WOULD BE THE TYPICAL URBAN AREAS WHERE DRAINAGE IS POOR FOR
ANY NUISANCE FLOODING...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS OVER
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE GRAY/DAMP CONDITIONS
CONTINUE WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER. DUE
TO THIS CLOUD COVER...SUSPECT THAT LOWS REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 50S
AND HIGHS ONLY RISE INTO THE MID 50S AND LOW 60S.

FRI...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS THE UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF
CANADA BEGINS TO FORCE THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF TO THE E AND WEAKENS
IT. STILL ENOUGH UPPER LVL COOL AIR AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A FEW
MORE SHOWERS. SO THE GRAY/WET CONDITIONS CONTINUE...BUT WITH A
MORE N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...THESE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO BE
FEWER AND FARTHER BETWEEN. TEMPS A BIT WARMER...MAINLY UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S.

SAT AND SUN...
SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY RELEASE THE REGION FROM
THE GRIPS OF THE CUTOFF. AT THIS POINT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING
IN...MAY ONLY SEE CLOUD COVER WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MAINLY SAT NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUN. THE DIFFERENCES IN AMPLIFICATION BETWEEN MODELS MAKE
IT DIFFICULT TO TELL EXACTLY HOW DEEP THE COLD AIR GETS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN...BUT WITH FULL MIXING HIGHS OF LOW-MID 60S ARE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S.

MON AND TUE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR AND MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS. TEMPS MAY BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...IF NOT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP THE COOL AIR BECOMES AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE. BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP
OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS AROUND OR AFTER 15Z TODAY...THEN
LIFT NORTH AND PIVOT NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE.

THRU 12Z...

VFR WITH LOW RISK OF AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND ALSO OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. OTHERWISE
MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS.

AFTER 12Z...

VFR WITH LIGHT SPOTTY RAIN POSSIBLE WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND OVER
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. THEN RAIN SHOULD BECOME FOCUSED OVER THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS AFTER 15Z WITH AREAS OF LIGHT/SPOTTY RAIN
ELSEWHERE. VFR WILL LOWER TO MVFR AFTER 15Z ACROSS EASTERN MA AND
POSSIBLE WESTWARD INTO RI. VERY LOW RISK OF ISOLATED THUNDER OVER
THIS AREA.

TONIGHT...

MAIN AREA OF RAIN LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND.
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BE COMMON ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TERMINALS WITH VFR/MVFR TRENDING TOWARD IFR LATE TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...

IFR/MVFR WITH MOST OF THE RAIN CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER
A NEW AREA OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE ONSHORE TO THE SOUTH COAST LATE IN
THE DAY. E-NE WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AS WELL.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING AND DETAILS.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING AND DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
MAINLY IFR/MVFR WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. LOW CIGS AND
VSBYS IN HEAVIER RAIN AND FOG. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THROUGH
THE PERIOD. CHANCE FOR LLWS ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU
MORNING WITH UP TO 40 KT POSSIBLE AT AROUND 2KFT ESPECIALLY
TERMINALS N OF THE MASS PIKE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
IMPROVING TO VFR. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN SOUTHERN NH AND EASTERN MASS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WED/...

TODAY...

STRONGEST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN MA
WATERS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. THUS SCA POSTED FOR THAT AREA.
HEAVY RAIN WITH LOW RISK OF T-STORMS ACROSS THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE
LIGHTER WINDS AND SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...

EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS. LOW RISK OF 25 KT OVER CAPE ANN WATERS.
VSBY REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE.

WEDNESDAY...

HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDER MOVES SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WATERS AND THEN ONSHORE LATE IN THE DAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS 15-20 KT. VSBY REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND HEAVY
RAIN LATE IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
MAINLY E-NE FLOW ALONG THE WATERS WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. THEN
SHIFTING TO NW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THU. A FEW WIND
GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE WED NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE N
WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ELSEWHERE. THE
WINDS DROP OFF AS THEY SHIFT THU...BUT THEN GUST AGAIN TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE DAY THU. OTHERWISE...SEAS BUILD WED
NIGHT INTO THU MORNING WITH AT LEAST 5-9 FT SEAS POSSIBLE. SOME
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING.

FRI...
LOW PRES MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE...WINDS AND SEAS MAY STILL REACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE DAY FRI AND INTO FRI
NIGHT...BUT EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT.

SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 210830
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
430 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS
AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY...

PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TROUGH AMPLIFICATION TAKING PLACE
OVER THE OH VLY INTO PA AND NY STATE. IN RESPONSE TO THIS
AMPLIFICATION WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND ASSOCIATED RAINS DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH...ALONG WITH
ANOTHER AREA RI...SOUTHEAST MA AND ADJACENT WATERS. THIS SECOND AREA
SHOULD BECOME THE FOCUS FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND
INCREASES IN MAGNITUDE ACROSS THIS AREA. THIS DIFFERENTIAL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL YIELD ELEVATED INSTABILITY INCREASING THE RISK OF
EMBEDDED CONVECTION WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT RAINS ACROSS CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

THE 00Z GUID INCLUDING THE LATEST RAP13/W-ARW/HRRR AND THE 03Z SREF
ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON ANY HEAVIER RAINBANDS AND EMBEDDED
CONVECTION TO TRACK OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...AND POSSIBLY
OFFSHORE. THUS HAVE CONFINED CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDER TO THE
REGION. RISK OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE FROM ABOUT 15Z TO 21Z TODAY AND
CONFINED TO CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

ELSEWHERE NOT MUCH APPRECIABLE RAINFALL TODAY. MAINLY PERIODS OF
RAIN AND FOR THE MOST PART ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

AS FOR TEMPS...ON THE MILD SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF RI AND SOUTHEAST MA AS WARM SECTOR OVERSPREADS THIS
REGION. FARTHER INLAND COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF
DRIZZLE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH DRY AIR ALOFT.
FARTHER INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND WESTERN MA A STEADIER RAIN IS
POSSIBLE AS COMMA HEAD RAINS MAY CLIP THIS REGION WHILE BULK OF RAIN
IS CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...NOT MUCH OF A DROP OFF GIVEN ONSHORE FLOW/CLOUDS AND
LIGHT PRECIP.

WEDNESDAY...

TRAILING SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND THEN
TAKES AIM AT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER IN THE DAY. STRONG SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE AND RESULTS IN COASTAL LOW OFF NJ
COAST TO INTENSIFY. THUS SLUG OF HEAVY RAIN LIKELY TO MOVE ONSHORE
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY. IN ADDITION AS DRY SLOT
APPROACHES THETA-E LAPSE RATES BEGIN TO DECREASE. THUS EMBEDDED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE AND WOULD ENHANCE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE RISK URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AND MAY IMPACT
THE EVENING COMMUTE.

TEMPS SIMILAR AS TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE L60S OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND
COOLING INTO THE 50S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

WITH FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MID TERM REGARDING A
SLOW MEANDERING AND STACKED LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING JUST TO THE S
OF SRN NEW ENGLAND...A GENERAL CONSENSUS BLEND WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE FOR THIS FORECAST. FOR THE REMAINDER...TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK...THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A BIT OF A
HIGHER AMPLIFICATION BIAS /SOMEWHAT TYPICAL OF THIS MODEL/. WHILE
OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS AND SEVERAL OF IT/S OWN ENSEMBLES ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH A SECONDARY KICKER WAVE AND HIGH PRES.
THEREFORE...WILL ADD LESS WEIGHT TO THE ECMWF BY THE LATE WEEK AND
WEEKEND-EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE KEY FEATURE INITIALLY IS A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF LOW PRES WITH ATTENDANT OCCLUDING SFC LOW THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK. IT/S NOT UNTIL A KICKER WAVE /DEEPENING WAVE EJECTING
OUT OF THE CANADIAN W/ MOVES IN ON SAT THAT THE LOW PRES MOVES
FULLY INTO THE MARITIMES AND ALLOWS DRIER AIR TO FULLY BUILD IN.
THEREFORE...EXPECT THE WET/GRAY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRI
WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM THEN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
AT THIS POINT ALL FEATURES LINE UP FOR THE POTENTIALLY WETTEST
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. IN ESSENCE A REINFORCING LLJ /ABOUT 40+ KT
MAINLY N OF THE BOX CWA/ MOVES IN COMBINED WITH UPPER LVL DRY SLOT
AND NEAR 6.0+ C/KM LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE...LOOKS LIKE A DECENT
SETUP FOR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH THIS LLJ PARTICULARLY BETWEEN
00Z AND 12Z ON THU. WITH MODEST PWATS UP TO 1.5 INCHES /ABOUT 2+
STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/. COULD SEE POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
ON THU AS THE LLJ AND DRY SLOT SHIFT N. RIGHT NOW THE PRIMARY
THREAT WOULD BE THE TYPICAL URBAN AREAS WHERE DRAINAGE IS POOR FOR
ANY NUISANCE FLOODING...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS OVER
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE GRAY/DAMP CONDITIONS
CONTINUE WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER. DUE
TO THIS CLOUD COVER...SUSPECT THAT LOWS REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 50S
AND HIGHS ONLY RISE INTO THE MID 50S AND LOW 60S.

FRI...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS THE UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF
CANADA BEGINS TO FORCE THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF TO THE E AND WEAKENS
IT. STILL ENOUGH UPPER LVL COOL AIR AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A FEW
MORE SHOWERS. SO THE GRAY/WET CONDITIONS CONTINUE...BUT WITH A
MORE N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...THESE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO BE
FEWER AND FARTHER BETWEEN. TEMPS A BIT WARMER...MAINLY UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S.

SAT AND SUN...
SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY RELEASE THE REGION FROM
THE GRIPS OF THE CUTOFF. AT THIS POINT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING
IN...MAY ONLY SEE CLOUD COVER WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MAINLY SAT NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUN. THE DIFFERENCES IN AMPLIFICATION BETWEEN MODELS MAKE
IT DIFFICULT TO TELL EXACTLY HOW DEEP THE COLD AIR GETS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN...BUT WITH FULL MIXING HIGHS OF LOW-MID 60S ARE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S.

MON AND TUE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR AND MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS. TEMPS MAY BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...IF NOT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP THE COOL AIR BECOMES AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE. BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP
OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS AROUND OR AFTER 15Z TODAY...THEN
LIFT NORTH AND PIVOT NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE.

THRU 12Z...

VFR WITH LOW RISK OF AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND ALSO OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. OTHERWISE
MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS.

AFTER 12Z...

VFR WITH LIGHT SPOTTY RAIN POSSIBLE WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND OVER
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. THEN RAIN SHOULD BECOME FOCUSED OVER THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS AFTER 15Z WITH AREAS OF LIGHT/SPOTTY RAIN
ELSEWHERE. VFR WILL LOWER TO MVFR AFTER 15Z ACROSS EASTERN MA AND
POSSIBLE WESTWARD INTO RI. VERY LOW RISK OF ISOLATED THUNDER OVER
THIS AREA.

TONIGHT...

MAIN AREA OF RAIN LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND.
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BE COMMON ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TERMINALS WITH VFR/MVFR TRENDING TOWARD IFR LATE TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...

IFR/MVFR WITH MOST OF THE RAIN CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER
A NEW AREA OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE ONSHORE TO THE SOUTH COAST LATE IN
THE DAY. E-NE WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AS WELL.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING AND DETAILS.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING AND DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
MAINLY IFR/MVFR WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. LOW CIGS AND
VSBYS IN HEAVIER RAIN AND FOG. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THROUGH
THE PERIOD. CHANCE FOR LLWS ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU
MORNING WITH UP TO 40 KT POSSIBLE AT AROUND 2KFT ESPECIALLY
TERMINALS N OF THE MASS PIKE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
IMPROVING TO VFR. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN SOUTHERN NH AND EASTERN MASS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WED/...

TODAY...

STRONGEST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN MA
WATERS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. THUS SCA POSTED FOR THAT AREA.
HEAVY RAIN WITH LOW RISK OF T-STORMS ACROSS THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE
LIGHTER WINDS AND SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...

EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS. LOW RISK OF 25 KT OVER CAPE ANN WATERS.
VSBY REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE.

WEDNESDAY...

HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDER MOVES SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WATERS AND THEN ONSHORE LATE IN THE DAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS 15-20 KT. VSBY REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND HEAVY
RAIN LATE IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
MAINLY E-NE FLOW ALONG THE WATERS WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. THEN
SHIFTING TO NW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THU. A FEW WIND
GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE WED NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE N
WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ELSEWHERE. THE
WINDS DROP OFF AS THEY SHIFT THU...BUT THEN GUST AGAIN TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE DAY THU. OTHERWISE...SEAS BUILD WED
NIGHT INTO THU MORNING WITH AT LEAST 5-9 FT SEAS POSSIBLE. SOME
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING.

FRI...
LOW PRES MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE...WINDS AND SEAS MAY STILL REACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE DAY FRI AND INTO FRI
NIGHT...BUT EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT.

SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 210830
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
430 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS
AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY...

PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TROUGH AMPLIFICATION TAKING PLACE
OVER THE OH VLY INTO PA AND NY STATE. IN RESPONSE TO THIS
AMPLIFICATION WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND ASSOCIATED RAINS DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH...ALONG WITH
ANOTHER AREA RI...SOUTHEAST MA AND ADJACENT WATERS. THIS SECOND AREA
SHOULD BECOME THE FOCUS FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND
INCREASES IN MAGNITUDE ACROSS THIS AREA. THIS DIFFERENTIAL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL YIELD ELEVATED INSTABILITY INCREASING THE RISK OF
EMBEDDED CONVECTION WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT RAINS ACROSS CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

THE 00Z GUID INCLUDING THE LATEST RAP13/W-ARW/HRRR AND THE 03Z SREF
ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON ANY HEAVIER RAINBANDS AND EMBEDDED
CONVECTION TO TRACK OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...AND POSSIBLY
OFFSHORE. THUS HAVE CONFINED CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDER TO THE
REGION. RISK OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE FROM ABOUT 15Z TO 21Z TODAY AND
CONFINED TO CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

ELSEWHERE NOT MUCH APPRECIABLE RAINFALL TODAY. MAINLY PERIODS OF
RAIN AND FOR THE MOST PART ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

AS FOR TEMPS...ON THE MILD SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF RI AND SOUTHEAST MA AS WARM SECTOR OVERSPREADS THIS
REGION. FARTHER INLAND COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF
DRIZZLE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH DRY AIR ALOFT.
FARTHER INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND WESTERN MA A STEADIER RAIN IS
POSSIBLE AS COMMA HEAD RAINS MAY CLIP THIS REGION WHILE BULK OF RAIN
IS CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...NOT MUCH OF A DROP OFF GIVEN ONSHORE FLOW/CLOUDS AND
LIGHT PRECIP.

WEDNESDAY...

TRAILING SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND THEN
TAKES AIM AT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER IN THE DAY. STRONG SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE AND RESULTS IN COASTAL LOW OFF NJ
COAST TO INTENSIFY. THUS SLUG OF HEAVY RAIN LIKELY TO MOVE ONSHORE
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY. IN ADDITION AS DRY SLOT
APPROACHES THETA-E LAPSE RATES BEGIN TO DECREASE. THUS EMBEDDED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE AND WOULD ENHANCE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE RISK URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AND MAY IMPACT
THE EVENING COMMUTE.

TEMPS SIMILAR AS TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE L60S OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND
COOLING INTO THE 50S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

WITH FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MID TERM REGARDING A
SLOW MEANDERING AND STACKED LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING JUST TO THE S
OF SRN NEW ENGLAND...A GENERAL CONSENSUS BLEND WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE FOR THIS FORECAST. FOR THE REMAINDER...TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK...THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A BIT OF A
HIGHER AMPLIFICATION BIAS /SOMEWHAT TYPICAL OF THIS MODEL/. WHILE
OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS AND SEVERAL OF IT/S OWN ENSEMBLES ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH A SECONDARY KICKER WAVE AND HIGH PRES.
THEREFORE...WILL ADD LESS WEIGHT TO THE ECMWF BY THE LATE WEEK AND
WEEKEND-EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE KEY FEATURE INITIALLY IS A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF LOW PRES WITH ATTENDANT OCCLUDING SFC LOW THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK. IT/S NOT UNTIL A KICKER WAVE /DEEPENING WAVE EJECTING
OUT OF THE CANADIAN W/ MOVES IN ON SAT THAT THE LOW PRES MOVES
FULLY INTO THE MARITIMES AND ALLOWS DRIER AIR TO FULLY BUILD IN.
THEREFORE...EXPECT THE WET/GRAY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRI
WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM THEN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
AT THIS POINT ALL FEATURES LINE UP FOR THE POTENTIALLY WETTEST
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. IN ESSENCE A REINFORCING LLJ /ABOUT 40+ KT
MAINLY N OF THE BOX CWA/ MOVES IN COMBINED WITH UPPER LVL DRY SLOT
AND NEAR 6.0+ C/KM LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE...LOOKS LIKE A DECENT
SETUP FOR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH THIS LLJ PARTICULARLY BETWEEN
00Z AND 12Z ON THU. WITH MODEST PWATS UP TO 1.5 INCHES /ABOUT 2+
STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/. COULD SEE POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
ON THU AS THE LLJ AND DRY SLOT SHIFT N. RIGHT NOW THE PRIMARY
THREAT WOULD BE THE TYPICAL URBAN AREAS WHERE DRAINAGE IS POOR FOR
ANY NUISANCE FLOODING...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS OVER
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE GRAY/DAMP CONDITIONS
CONTINUE WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER. DUE
TO THIS CLOUD COVER...SUSPECT THAT LOWS REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 50S
AND HIGHS ONLY RISE INTO THE MID 50S AND LOW 60S.

FRI...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS THE UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF
CANADA BEGINS TO FORCE THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF TO THE E AND WEAKENS
IT. STILL ENOUGH UPPER LVL COOL AIR AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A FEW
MORE SHOWERS. SO THE GRAY/WET CONDITIONS CONTINUE...BUT WITH A
MORE N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...THESE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO BE
FEWER AND FARTHER BETWEEN. TEMPS A BIT WARMER...MAINLY UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S.

SAT AND SUN...
SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY RELEASE THE REGION FROM
THE GRIPS OF THE CUTOFF. AT THIS POINT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING
IN...MAY ONLY SEE CLOUD COVER WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MAINLY SAT NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUN. THE DIFFERENCES IN AMPLIFICATION BETWEEN MODELS MAKE
IT DIFFICULT TO TELL EXACTLY HOW DEEP THE COLD AIR GETS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN...BUT WITH FULL MIXING HIGHS OF LOW-MID 60S ARE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S.

MON AND TUE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR AND MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS. TEMPS MAY BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...IF NOT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP THE COOL AIR BECOMES AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE. BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP
OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS AROUND OR AFTER 15Z TODAY...THEN
LIFT NORTH AND PIVOT NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE.

THRU 12Z...

VFR WITH LOW RISK OF AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND ALSO OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. OTHERWISE
MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS.

AFTER 12Z...

VFR WITH LIGHT SPOTTY RAIN POSSIBLE WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND OVER
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. THEN RAIN SHOULD BECOME FOCUSED OVER THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS AFTER 15Z WITH AREAS OF LIGHT/SPOTTY RAIN
ELSEWHERE. VFR WILL LOWER TO MVFR AFTER 15Z ACROSS EASTERN MA AND
POSSIBLE WESTWARD INTO RI. VERY LOW RISK OF ISOLATED THUNDER OVER
THIS AREA.

TONIGHT...

MAIN AREA OF RAIN LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND.
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BE COMMON ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TERMINALS WITH VFR/MVFR TRENDING TOWARD IFR LATE TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...

IFR/MVFR WITH MOST OF THE RAIN CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER
A NEW AREA OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE ONSHORE TO THE SOUTH COAST LATE IN
THE DAY. E-NE WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AS WELL.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING AND DETAILS.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING AND DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
MAINLY IFR/MVFR WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. LOW CIGS AND
VSBYS IN HEAVIER RAIN AND FOG. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THROUGH
THE PERIOD. CHANCE FOR LLWS ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU
MORNING WITH UP TO 40 KT POSSIBLE AT AROUND 2KFT ESPECIALLY
TERMINALS N OF THE MASS PIKE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
IMPROVING TO VFR. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN SOUTHERN NH AND EASTERN MASS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WED/...

TODAY...

STRONGEST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN MA
WATERS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. THUS SCA POSTED FOR THAT AREA.
HEAVY RAIN WITH LOW RISK OF T-STORMS ACROSS THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE
LIGHTER WINDS AND SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...

EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS. LOW RISK OF 25 KT OVER CAPE ANN WATERS.
VSBY REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE.

WEDNESDAY...

HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDER MOVES SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WATERS AND THEN ONSHORE LATE IN THE DAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS 15-20 KT. VSBY REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND HEAVY
RAIN LATE IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
MAINLY E-NE FLOW ALONG THE WATERS WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. THEN
SHIFTING TO NW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THU. A FEW WIND
GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE WED NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE N
WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ELSEWHERE. THE
WINDS DROP OFF AS THEY SHIFT THU...BUT THEN GUST AGAIN TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE DAY THU. OTHERWISE...SEAS BUILD WED
NIGHT INTO THU MORNING WITH AT LEAST 5-9 FT SEAS POSSIBLE. SOME
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING.

FRI...
LOW PRES MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE...WINDS AND SEAS MAY STILL REACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE DAY FRI AND INTO FRI
NIGHT...BUT EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT.

SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 210830
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
430 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS
AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY...

PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TROUGH AMPLIFICATION TAKING PLACE
OVER THE OH VLY INTO PA AND NY STATE. IN RESPONSE TO THIS
AMPLIFICATION WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND ASSOCIATED RAINS DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH...ALONG WITH
ANOTHER AREA RI...SOUTHEAST MA AND ADJACENT WATERS. THIS SECOND AREA
SHOULD BECOME THE FOCUS FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND
INCREASES IN MAGNITUDE ACROSS THIS AREA. THIS DIFFERENTIAL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL YIELD ELEVATED INSTABILITY INCREASING THE RISK OF
EMBEDDED CONVECTION WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT RAINS ACROSS CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

THE 00Z GUID INCLUDING THE LATEST RAP13/W-ARW/HRRR AND THE 03Z SREF
ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON ANY HEAVIER RAINBANDS AND EMBEDDED
CONVECTION TO TRACK OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...AND POSSIBLY
OFFSHORE. THUS HAVE CONFINED CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDER TO THE
REGION. RISK OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE FROM ABOUT 15Z TO 21Z TODAY AND
CONFINED TO CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

ELSEWHERE NOT MUCH APPRECIABLE RAINFALL TODAY. MAINLY PERIODS OF
RAIN AND FOR THE MOST PART ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

AS FOR TEMPS...ON THE MILD SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF RI AND SOUTHEAST MA AS WARM SECTOR OVERSPREADS THIS
REGION. FARTHER INLAND COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...

DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF
DRIZZLE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH DRY AIR ALOFT.
FARTHER INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND WESTERN MA A STEADIER RAIN IS
POSSIBLE AS COMMA HEAD RAINS MAY CLIP THIS REGION WHILE BULK OF RAIN
IS CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

AS FOR TEMPS...NOT MUCH OF A DROP OFF GIVEN ONSHORE FLOW/CLOUDS AND
LIGHT PRECIP.

WEDNESDAY...

TRAILING SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND THEN
TAKES AIM AT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER IN THE DAY. STRONG SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE AND RESULTS IN COASTAL LOW OFF NJ
COAST TO INTENSIFY. THUS SLUG OF HEAVY RAIN LIKELY TO MOVE ONSHORE
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY. IN ADDITION AS DRY SLOT
APPROACHES THETA-E LAPSE RATES BEGIN TO DECREASE. THUS EMBEDDED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE AND WOULD ENHANCE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE RISK URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AND MAY IMPACT
THE EVENING COMMUTE.

TEMPS SIMILAR AS TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE L60S OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND
COOLING INTO THE 50S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

WITH FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MID TERM REGARDING A
SLOW MEANDERING AND STACKED LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING JUST TO THE S
OF SRN NEW ENGLAND...A GENERAL CONSENSUS BLEND WILL BE USED AS A
BASELINE FOR THIS FORECAST. FOR THE REMAINDER...TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK...THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A BIT OF A
HIGHER AMPLIFICATION BIAS /SOMEWHAT TYPICAL OF THIS MODEL/. WHILE
OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS AND SEVERAL OF IT/S OWN ENSEMBLES ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH A SECONDARY KICKER WAVE AND HIGH PRES.
THEREFORE...WILL ADD LESS WEIGHT TO THE ECMWF BY THE LATE WEEK AND
WEEKEND-EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE KEY FEATURE INITIALLY IS A SLOW MOVING
CUTOFF LOW PRES WITH ATTENDANT OCCLUDING SFC LOW THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK. IT/S NOT UNTIL A KICKER WAVE /DEEPENING WAVE EJECTING
OUT OF THE CANADIAN W/ MOVES IN ON SAT THAT THE LOW PRES MOVES
FULLY INTO THE MARITIMES AND ALLOWS DRIER AIR TO FULLY BUILD IN.
THEREFORE...EXPECT THE WET/GRAY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRI
WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM THEN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
AT THIS POINT ALL FEATURES LINE UP FOR THE POTENTIALLY WETTEST
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. IN ESSENCE A REINFORCING LLJ /ABOUT 40+ KT
MAINLY N OF THE BOX CWA/ MOVES IN COMBINED WITH UPPER LVL DRY SLOT
AND NEAR 6.0+ C/KM LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE...LOOKS LIKE A DECENT
SETUP FOR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH THIS LLJ PARTICULARLY BETWEEN
00Z AND 12Z ON THU. WITH MODEST PWATS UP TO 1.5 INCHES /ABOUT 2+
STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/. COULD SEE POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
ON THU AS THE LLJ AND DRY SLOT SHIFT N. RIGHT NOW THE PRIMARY
THREAT WOULD BE THE TYPICAL URBAN AREAS WHERE DRAINAGE IS POOR FOR
ANY NUISANCE FLOODING...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS OVER
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE GRAY/DAMP CONDITIONS
CONTINUE WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER. DUE
TO THIS CLOUD COVER...SUSPECT THAT LOWS REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 50S
AND HIGHS ONLY RISE INTO THE MID 50S AND LOW 60S.

FRI...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS THE UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF
CANADA BEGINS TO FORCE THE UPPER LVL CUTOFF TO THE E AND WEAKENS
IT. STILL ENOUGH UPPER LVL COOL AIR AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A FEW
MORE SHOWERS. SO THE GRAY/WET CONDITIONS CONTINUE...BUT WITH A
MORE N COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...THESE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO BE
FEWER AND FARTHER BETWEEN. TEMPS A BIT WARMER...MAINLY UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S.

SAT AND SUN...
SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY RELEASE THE REGION FROM
THE GRIPS OF THE CUTOFF. AT THIS POINT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING
IN...MAY ONLY SEE CLOUD COVER WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MAINLY SAT NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUN. THE DIFFERENCES IN AMPLIFICATION BETWEEN MODELS MAKE
IT DIFFICULT TO TELL EXACTLY HOW DEEP THE COLD AIR GETS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN...BUT WITH FULL MIXING HIGHS OF LOW-MID 60S ARE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S.

MON AND TUE...
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR AND MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS. TEMPS MAY BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...IF NOT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP THE COOL AIR BECOMES AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE. BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP
OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS AROUND OR AFTER 15Z TODAY...THEN
LIFT NORTH AND PIVOT NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE.

THRU 12Z...

VFR WITH LOW RISK OF AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND ALSO OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. OTHERWISE
MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS.

AFTER 12Z...

VFR WITH LIGHT SPOTTY RAIN POSSIBLE WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND OVER
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. THEN RAIN SHOULD BECOME FOCUSED OVER THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS AFTER 15Z WITH AREAS OF LIGHT/SPOTTY RAIN
ELSEWHERE. VFR WILL LOWER TO MVFR AFTER 15Z ACROSS EASTERN MA AND
POSSIBLE WESTWARD INTO RI. VERY LOW RISK OF ISOLATED THUNDER OVER
THIS AREA.

TONIGHT...

MAIN AREA OF RAIN LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND.
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BE COMMON ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TERMINALS WITH VFR/MVFR TRENDING TOWARD IFR LATE TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...

IFR/MVFR WITH MOST OF THE RAIN CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER
A NEW AREA OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE ONSHORE TO THE SOUTH COAST LATE IN
THE DAY. E-NE WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AS WELL.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING AND DETAILS.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING AND DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
MAINLY IFR/MVFR WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. LOW CIGS AND
VSBYS IN HEAVIER RAIN AND FOG. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THROUGH
THE PERIOD. CHANCE FOR LLWS ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU
MORNING WITH UP TO 40 KT POSSIBLE AT AROUND 2KFT ESPECIALLY
TERMINALS N OF THE MASS PIKE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
IMPROVING TO VFR. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN SOUTHERN NH AND EASTERN MASS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WED/...

TODAY...

STRONGEST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN MA
WATERS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. THUS SCA POSTED FOR THAT AREA.
HEAVY RAIN WITH LOW RISK OF T-STORMS ACROSS THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE
LIGHTER WINDS AND SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...

EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS. LOW RISK OF 25 KT OVER CAPE ANN WATERS.
VSBY REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE.

WEDNESDAY...

HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDER MOVES SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WATERS AND THEN ONSHORE LATE IN THE DAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS 15-20 KT. VSBY REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG AND HEAVY
RAIN LATE IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...
MAINLY E-NE FLOW ALONG THE WATERS WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. THEN
SHIFTING TO NW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THU. A FEW WIND
GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE WED NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE N
WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ELSEWHERE. THE
WINDS DROP OFF AS THEY SHIFT THU...BUT THEN GUST AGAIN TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE DAY THU. OTHERWISE...SEAS BUILD WED
NIGHT INTO THU MORNING WITH AT LEAST 5-9 FT SEAS POSSIBLE. SOME
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING.

FRI...
LOW PRES MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE...WINDS AND SEAS MAY STILL REACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE DAY FRI AND INTO FRI
NIGHT...BUT EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT.

SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 210610
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
210 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY
PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

2 AM UPDATE...

MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY SEEN ON RADAR AT 2 AM IS NOT REACHING THE
GROUND GIVEN CLOUD BASES AROUND 8-10KFT BENEATH RETURNS ON RADAR
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. COLUMN WILL TAKE SOMETIME
TO SATURATE...AT LEAST UNTIL SUNRISE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THUS
MAINLY DRY WEATHER INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN
MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ANOTHER AREA OVER CAPE COD AND
THE ISLANDS.

LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION COMMENCING ACROSS LONG ISLAND/CT
COASTLINE TO BLOCK ISLAND WHERE TEMPS HAVE JUMPED INTO THE LOW 60S
AT 2 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...

***NARROW AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY ACROSS EASTERN NEW
  ENGLAND***

TUESDAY...

INTERESTING SETUP WITH A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST AND A
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE INTERACTION OF THE
COLD POOL ALOFT...A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET AND AXIS OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE MAY LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. INTERESTING THAT THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
ARE SHOWING A NARROW AXIS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN SOMEWHERE NEAR
THE I-95 CORRIDOR. EXACT LOCATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND IT COULD
REMAIN OFFSHORE...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH. WE MAY BE DEALING WITH
LOCALIZED NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING IN THIS REGION IF
THIS NARROW AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPS.

FURTHER TO THE WEST ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT BEST FORCING/MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS
OUR EASTERN ZONES...SO ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD.

AS FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...500 MB TEMPS WILL BE BELOW -20C AND
RESULT IN ELEVATED INSTABILITY.  MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN
INDICATING MU CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG. HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS SOME OF THE REGION.  WHILE WE
CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...BEST SHOT WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

APPEARS THAT THE DEEPER MOISTURE/LIFT TEMPORARILY SHIFTS TO THE
NORTH OF OUR REGION AND INTO NORTHER NEW ENGLAND.
NONETHELESS...CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE WILL STILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AT TIMES. THE ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY BE MOST
WIDESPREAD ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES...CLOSER TO THE BETTER
DYNAMICS AND FORCING.  LOW TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY MIGRATES
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AND INTO THE MARITIMES FRIDAY. SHORTWAVE
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST RACES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES
THIS WEEK AND CROSSES NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THEN
BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST USA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HEIGHT CONTOURS ARE
BELOW NORMAL MUCH OF THE WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
LOW...THEN RECOVER TO NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS.

THIS PATTERN FAVORS A COOL WET MID AND LATE WEEK...THEN DRY AND
SEASONABLE BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TYPES
OF WEATHER...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...COASTAL LOW SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST. LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH AND AN
EAST 50-60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS COASTAL MAINE AND WRAPPING INTO
NH/VT. THIS MAY BRING ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN NH
AND NORTHERN MASS...WITH WEAKER LIFT FARTHER SOUTH. BY THURSDAY THE
COLD CORE IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. SO WEDNESDAY IS A TRANSITION FROM
STRATIFORM TO CONVECTIVE...THURSDAY MAINLY CONVECTIVE. SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY BOTH DAYS TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF THUNDER.

FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST.
COLD CORE STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE CLOUDS AND SOME INSTABILITY.
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A DIMINISHING CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

SATURDAY...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
LATER SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. THE APPROACH OF THIS FRONT MAY
ACTUALLY BE THE NUDGE THAT GETS THE LAST OF THE COLD POOL CLOUDS OUT
OF OUR AREA. THE FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IS LESS DEFINED AND SO WE FEATURE JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN SRN NH AND NRN MASS. TEMPS ALOFT SUPPORT DAYTIME
MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH TEMPS
ALOFT WARMER FROM SUNDAY TO MONDAY. TEMPS ALOFT SUPPORT 60S BOTH
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE. BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP
OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS AROUND OR AFTER 15Z TODAY...THEN
LIFT NORTH AND PIVOT NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE.

THRU 12Z...

VFR WITH LOW RISK OF AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND ALSO OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. OTHERWISE
MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS.

AFTER 12Z...

VFR WITH LIGHT SPOTTY RAIN POSSIBLE WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND OVER
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. THEN RAIN SHOULD BECOME FOCUSED OVER THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS AFTER 15Z WITH AREAS OF LIGHT/SPOTTY RAIN
ELSEWHERE. VFR WILL LOWER TO MVFR AFTER 15Z ACROSS EASTERN MA AND
POSSIBLE WESTWARD INTO RI. VERY LOW RISK OF ISOLATED THUNDER OVER
THIS AREA.

TONIGHT...

MAIN AREA OF RAIN LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND.
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BE COMMON ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TERMINALS WITH VFR/MVFR TRENDING TOWARD IFR LATE TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...

IFR/MVFR WITH MOST OF THE RAIN CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER
A NEW AREA OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE ONSHORE TO THE SOUTH COAST LATE IN
THE DAY. E-NE WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AS WELL.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING AND DETAILS.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING AND DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...PROLONGED PERIOD OF MIXED
MVFR/IFR...WITH MORE IFR IN RAIN WEDNESDAY AND MORE MVFR IN
SHOWERS THURSDAY. CHANCE OF THUNDER BOTH DAYS. CHANCE OF 30 KNOT
EAST-NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG THE OUTER CAPE
AND MASSACHUSETTS NORTH SHORE AREAS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...VFR. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN SOUTHERN NH AND EASTERN MASS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

940 PM UPDATE...

ONLY CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST IS TO INCREASE WIND SPEEDS A BIT
OVERNIGHT TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. EARLIER DISCUSSION
BELOW.

==================================================================

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
FURTHER EAST OF THE REGION.  THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS.  HOWEVER...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SCA THRESHOLDS.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE WATERS WILL COMBINED WITH A 1030 MB HIGH
OVER EASTERN CANADA.  EASTERLY WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS.
PRETTY MUCH A LOCK THAT SCA SEAS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR EASTERN AND
PARTICULARLY OUR NORTHERN OUTER-WATERS TUE AFTERNOON INTO TUE NIGHT.
IN FACT...BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY SEAS MAY BE APPROACHING 10 FEET
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN WATERS ALONG WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS.  SCA
HEADLINES POSTED FOR THIS REGION.

WE MAY ALSO SEE SOME 5 FOOT SEAS DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS
TOWARDS 12Z WEDNESDAY...BUT ITS TOO MARGINAL FOR LATE 3RD PERIOD SCA
HEADLINES IN THIS REGION.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW LEVEL EAST-NORTHEAST JET WILL BE FEEDING
INTO THE MAINE MID-COAST WEDNESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG SURFACE
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF OUR WATERS. WINDS OF 25-30 KNOTS MAY
EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MERRIMACK RIVER AND POSSIBLY CAPE ANN.
WINDS DIMINISH AND BECOME VARIABLE THURSDAY AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS WEDNESDAY REACH 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS
WITH 8 TO 10 FEET POSSIBLE FROM CAPE ANN TO MERRIMACK RIVER. BY
THURSDAY THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL EXPAND THE AREA OF 8
TO 10 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE EASTERN WATERS AND SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.

FRIDAY... AS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TOWARD THE
MARITIMES...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.
WITH THE SHIFTING OF THE WIND DIRECTION TO OFFSHORE...WE EXPECT SEAS
TO DIMINISH. BUT 5 FOOT SEAS MAY LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH
THE DAY.

SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/FRANK
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...WTB/NOCERA
MARINE...WTB/FRANK




000
FXUS61 KBOX 210610
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
210 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LONG DURATION COASTAL STORM WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY
PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND.  MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

2 AM UPDATE...

MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY SEEN ON RADAR AT 2 AM IS NOT REACHING THE
GROUND GIVEN CLOUD BASES AROUND 8-10KFT BENEATH RETURNS ON RADAR
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. COLUMN WILL TAKE SOMETIME
TO SATURATE...AT LEAST UNTIL SUNRISE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THUS
MAINLY DRY WEATHER INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN
MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ANOTHER AREA OVER CAPE COD AND
THE ISLANDS.

LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION COMMENCING ACROSS LONG ISLAND/CT
COASTLINE TO BLOCK ISLAND WHERE TEMPS HAVE JUMPED INTO THE LOW 60S
AT 2 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...

***NARROW AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY ACROSS EASTERN NEW
  ENGLAND***

TUESDAY...

INTERESTING SETUP WITH A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST AND A
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE INTERACTION OF THE
COLD POOL ALOFT...A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET AND AXIS OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE MAY LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. INTERESTING THAT THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
ARE SHOWING A NARROW AXIS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN SOMEWHERE NEAR
THE I-95 CORRIDOR. EXACT LOCATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND IT COULD
REMAIN OFFSHORE...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH. WE MAY BE DEALING WITH
LOCALIZED NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING IN THIS REGION IF
THIS NARROW AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPS.

FURTHER TO THE WEST ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT BEST FORCING/MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS
OUR EASTERN ZONES...SO ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD.

AS FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...500 MB TEMPS WILL BE BELOW -20C AND
RESULT IN ELEVATED INSTABILITY.  MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN
INDICATING MU CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG. HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS SOME OF THE REGION.  WHILE WE
CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...BEST SHOT WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

APPEARS THAT THE DEEPER MOISTURE/LIFT TEMPORARILY SHIFTS TO THE
NORTH OF OUR REGION AND INTO NORTHER NEW ENGLAND.
NONETHELESS...CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE WILL STILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AT TIMES. THE ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY BE MOST
WIDESPREAD ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES...CLOSER TO THE BETTER
DYNAMICS AND FORCING.  LOW TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...

CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY MIGRATES
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AND INTO THE MARITIMES FRIDAY. SHORTWAVE
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST RACES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES
THIS WEEK AND CROSSES NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THEN
BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST USA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HEIGHT CONTOURS ARE
BELOW NORMAL MUCH OF THE WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
LOW...THEN RECOVER TO NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS.

THIS PATTERN FAVORS A COOL WET MID AND LATE WEEK...THEN DRY AND
SEASONABLE BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TYPES
OF WEATHER...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING.

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...COASTAL LOW SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST. LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH AND AN
EAST 50-60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS COASTAL MAINE AND WRAPPING INTO
NH/VT. THIS MAY BRING ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN NH
AND NORTHERN MASS...WITH WEAKER LIFT FARTHER SOUTH. BY THURSDAY THE
COLD CORE IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. SO WEDNESDAY IS A TRANSITION FROM
STRATIFORM TO CONVECTIVE...THURSDAY MAINLY CONVECTIVE. SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY BOTH DAYS TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF THUNDER.

FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST.
COLD CORE STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE CLOUDS AND SOME INSTABILITY.
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A DIMINISHING CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

SATURDAY...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
LATER SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. THE APPROACH OF THIS FRONT MAY
ACTUALLY BE THE NUDGE THAT GETS THE LAST OF THE COLD POOL CLOUDS OUT
OF OUR AREA. THE FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF CLOUDS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IS LESS DEFINED AND SO WE FEATURE JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN SRN NH AND NRN MASS. TEMPS ALOFT SUPPORT DAYTIME
MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH TEMPS
ALOFT WARMER FROM SUNDAY TO MONDAY. TEMPS ALOFT SUPPORT 60S BOTH
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE. BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP
OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS AROUND OR AFTER 15Z TODAY...THEN
LIFT NORTH AND PIVOT NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE.

THRU 12Z...

VFR WITH LOW RISK OF AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND ALSO OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. OTHERWISE
MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS.

AFTER 12Z...

VFR WITH LIGHT SPOTTY RAIN POSSIBLE WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND OVER
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. THEN RAIN SHOULD BECOME FOCUSED OVER THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS AFTER 15Z WITH AREAS OF LIGHT/SPOTTY RAIN
ELSEWHERE. VFR WILL LOWER TO MVFR AFTER 15Z ACROSS EASTERN MA AND
POSSIBLE WESTWARD INTO RI. VERY LOW RISK OF ISOLATED THUNDER OVER
THIS AREA.

TONIGHT...

MAIN AREA OF RAIN LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND.
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BE COMMON ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TERMINALS WITH VFR/MVFR TRENDING TOWARD IFR LATE TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...

IFR/MVFR WITH MOST OF THE RAIN CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER
A NEW AREA OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE ONSHORE TO THE SOUTH COAST LATE IN
THE DAY. E-NE WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AS WELL.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING AND DETAILS.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING AND DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...PROLONGED PERIOD OF MIXED
MVFR/IFR...WITH MORE IFR IN RAIN WEDNESDAY AND MORE MVFR IN
SHOWERS THURSDAY. CHANCE OF THUNDER BOTH DAYS. CHANCE OF 30 KNOT
EAST-NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG THE OUTER CAPE
AND MASSACHUSETTS NORTH SHORE AREAS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...VFR. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN SOUTHERN NH AND EASTERN MASS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

940 PM UPDATE...

ONLY CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST IS TO INCREASE WIND SPEEDS A BIT
OVERNIGHT TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. EARLIER DISCUSSION
BELOW.

==================================================================

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
FURTHER EAST OF THE REGION.  THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS.  HOWEVER...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SCA THRESHOLDS.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE WATERS WILL COMBINED WITH A 1030 MB HIGH
OVER EASTERN CANADA.  EASTERLY WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS.
PRETTY MUCH A LOCK THAT SCA SEAS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR EASTERN AND
PARTICULARLY OUR NORTHERN OUTER-WATERS TUE AFTERNOON INTO TUE NIGHT.
IN FACT...BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY SEAS MAY BE APPROACHING 10 FEET
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN WATERS ALONG WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS.  SCA
HEADLINES POSTED FOR THIS REGION.

WE MAY ALSO SEE SOME 5 FOOT SEAS DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS
TOWARDS 12Z WEDNESDAY...BUT ITS TOO MARGINAL FOR LATE 3RD PERIOD SCA
HEADLINES IN THIS REGION.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...LOW LEVEL EAST-NORTHEAST JET WILL BE FEEDING
INTO THE MAINE MID-COAST WEDNESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG SURFACE
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF OUR WATERS. WINDS OF 25-30 KNOTS MAY
EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MERRIMACK RIVER AND POSSIBLY CAPE ANN.
WINDS DIMINISH AND BECOME VARIABLE THURSDAY AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS WEDNESDAY REACH 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS
WITH 8 TO 10 FEET POSSIBLE FROM CAPE ANN TO MERRIMACK RIVER. BY
THURSDAY THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL EXPAND THE AREA OF 8
TO 10 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE EASTERN WATERS AND SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.

FRIDAY... AS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TOWARD THE
MARITIMES...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.
WITH THE SHIFTING OF THE WIND DIRECTION TO OFFSHORE...WE EXPECT SEAS
TO DIMINISH. BUT 5 FOOT SEAS MAY LINGER ON THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH
THE DAY.

SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/FRANK
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...WTB/NOCERA
MARINE...WTB/FRANK



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