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000
FXUS61 KBOX 261153
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
653 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM WILL TRACK NEAR NANTUCKET THIS EVENING...
THEN QUICKLY MOVING OUT TO SEA OVERNIGHT. THIS STORM WILL BRING A
VARIETY OF WEATHER IMPACTS TO THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
HEAVY SNOW WELL INLAND...HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS ALONG THE
COAST. WEATHER CONDITIONS IMPROVE FOR THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE OVER
THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

*** WINTER STORM TRENDING CLOSER TO THE COAST RESULTING IN A
 RAIN/SNOW LINE FARTHER INLAND ***

7 AM UPDATE...

LEADING EDGE OF WARM CONVEYOR BELT PRECIP /NOSE OF MID LEVEL JET/
COMING ONSHORE ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WITH DEW
PTS IN THE M20S TO L30S HAS RESULTED IN DEW PT DEPRESSIONS ON THE
ORDER OF 10-20 DEGS. THIS LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL INITIALLY ERODE
LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP. THUS DELAYED PRECIP ARRIVAL BY ONLY AN
HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK.

MESOANALYSIS INDICATES LOW PRES ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WITH GOOD
PRES FALLS FROM NJ SOUTHWARD. THIS HAS RESULTED IN WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHEAST AT NANTUCKET AND FALMOUTH. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE THRU THE MORNING..NNW WINDS TRENDING TOWARD NE.

AS FOR 06Z MODEL GUIDANCE...GFS AND NAM HAVE NOT DEVIATED MUCH
FROM THEIR 00Z RUNS WITH SURFACE LOW PASSING NEAR NANTUCKET ALONG
WITH MID LEVEL LOW TRACKING OVER NORTHWEST MA AND SOUTHWEST NH.
THUS THREAT AREA FOR HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHWEST MA AND
SOUTHWEST NH. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

--------------------------------------------------------------------

IMPACTS...

* HEAVY SNOW WESTERN AND CENTRAL MA INTO SOUTHERN NH
* STRONG WINDS SOUTHEAST MA AND SOUTHERN RI
* HEAVY RAIN AND MINOR POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN FLOODING MUCH OF RI AND
  SOUTHEAST MA

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH THE SURFACE
LOW PASSING OVER OR NEAR NANTUCKET. THIS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST MAY
BE THE RESULT OF WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT UPSTREAM CONVECTION FROM
OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS FL TO WEST OF
CUBA. THIS CONVECTION MAY HAVE YIELDED A STRONGER DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLC RESULTING IN A STORM TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST.

REGARDING MODEL SOLUTIONS ECMWF AND GFS ARE FARTHEST NORTHWEST AND
WARMEST. NAM CONSIDERABLY COOLER. FOR EXAMPLE THE NAM BUFKIT AT ORH
OFFERS AN ALL SNOW EVENT WITH 9-12 INCHES. MEANWHILE THE GFS BUFKIT
HAS MID LEVEL WARM INTRUSION WITH SNOW MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO
SLEET THEN BACK TO SNOW...BUT RESULTING IN ONLY 5 OR 6 INCHES. MORE
OF THE SAME AT BDL. PATTERN RECOGNITION SUGGEST AXIS OF HEAVIEST
SNOW SHOULD BE ALONG AND JUST NORTHWEST OF H7 LOW TRACK...WHICH
MODELS AGREE WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH.

PTYPE AND SNOWFALL...

GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON TRACK OF H7 LOW FAIRLY CONFIDENT ON
AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM BAF-CEF-FIT-
ASH-MHT. A SWATH OF 6-12 INCHES IS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS AREA. SNOW
WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY AT TIMES ACROSS THIS REGION FROM 18Z-02Z-ISH AS
STRONG MID LEVEL FGEN COMBINES WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TO PRODUCE
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR. EVEN A LOW PROB OF
THUNDERSNOW AS DRY SLOT APPROACHES. GIVEN THERMAL PROFILES ARE
ISOTHERMAL HEAVY WET SNOW MAY RESULT IN A RISK OF DOWN
BRANCHES/SMALL LIMBS...INCREASING THE RISK FOR POWER OUTAGES ACROSS
NORTHWEST MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH. SNOW GROWTH DOES NOT LOOK IDEAL SO
EXPECTING SLR TO RANGE FROM 8-1 TO 12-1.

FARTHER SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN CT-WORCESTER COUNTY OF MA AND INTO
NORTHEAST MA...SNOW MAY MIX WITH SLEET FOR A TIME LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW LATER IN THE
EVENING. THIS MIX OF SLEET WILL REDUCE SNOW TOTALS SOMEWHAT HOWEVER
WILL ADD TO THE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR
EXPECTING A COLD RAIN TO MIX WITH SLEET AND SNOW LATER IN THE DAY
AND EVENING...YIELDING A SLUSHY MINOR ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.
NEVERTHELESS THIS WILL YIELD SLIPPERY TRAVEL ESPECIALLY 21Z-03Z WHEN
PRECIP INTENSITY IS AT ITS GREATEST.

FINALLY FOR SOUTHERN RI AND SOUTHEAST MA...MAINLY A WIND SWEPT RAIN
STORM WITH MINOR POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN FLOODING AS RAINFALL TOTALS OF
UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.

OVERALL...NOT PLANNING ON CHANGING ANY HEADLINES DESPITE LOWERING
SNOWFALL TOTALS. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND SLEET ON THIS BUSY
TRAVEL DAY WITH PRECIP INTENSITY HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING JUSTIFIES THE WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES DESPITE SNOW TOTALS
POSSIBLY FALLING SHORT OF CRITERIA. THUS HEADLINES WILL BE MAINLY
BASED ON IMPACTS. AS FOR SNOWFALL TOTALS...BASICALLY BLENDED THE
WARMER 00Z MODEL SOLUTION WITH PREVIOUS SNOWFALL FORECAST WHICH
RESULTED IN LOWER SNOW TOTALS AND AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL FARTHER
INLAND. HOWEVER IF 12Z GUIDANCE TRENDS CLOSER TO THE COAST DAY SHIFT
WILL LIKELY HAVE TO LOWER AMOUNTS AND SHIFT AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW
FARTHER INLAND.

ONSET...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON PRECIP COMING ONSHORE TO THE SOUTH
COAST 6 AM TO 8 AM AND THEN RAPIDLY OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF
CT/RI AND MA RAPIDLY SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST 8 AM TO NOON.

PRECIP INTENSITY...HEAVIEST 1 PM TO 8 PM FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST.

WINDS...

A STRONG LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST JET WILL MOVE ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST
MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS AROUND 00Z. MODELS PROJECTING
50 TO 65 KT JET AT 925 MB. GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST. THIS COUPLED WITH
STRONG PRES FALLS AND RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WATERS PROVIDING A WELL
MIXED BLYR WILL YIELD A MODERATE RISK OF 50 MPH WIND GUSTS FROM
SOUTH COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY/CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. GIVEN TRACK
OF LOW IS FARTHER NW STRONG WIND FIELD NOW MOVES ACROSS COASTAL RI
AND SOUTHEAST MA. THUS WILL EXPAND WIND ADVISORY TO THIS AREA. WINDS
MAY DECREASE OVER THE ISLANDS FOR A TIME THIS EVENING AS LOW MAKES
IT CLOSEST APPROACH...SOMEWHERE NEAR NANTUCKET. TIMING OF STRONGEST
WINDS APPEAR 4 PM WED TIL 1 AM THU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...

THANKSGIVING DAY...H5 LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH A CUTOFF LOW IN THIS FLOW. AMPLE LOW
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO WILL SEE LINGERING
CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. GOOD SHOT OF
COLD AIR ADVECTION WORKING IN. DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. H85 TEMPS FALL BACK TO -5C TO -10C
THU NIGHT SO TEMPS WILL TUMBLE...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS
AND 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...THOUGH WILL HOLD IN THE 30 TO 35
DEGREE RANGE ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. WET ROADWAYS AND
SIDEWALKS WILL FREEZE UP AS TEMPS FALL THU NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON
UNTREATED SURFACES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN FLATTENING
OUT THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...WITH
SURFACE WEATHER SYSTEMS TENDING TO MOVE QUICKLY ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER STATES THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THIS TIMEFRAME.
HAVE NOTED TIMING DIFFERENCES WORKING IN ESPECIALLY ON THE 00Z OP
RUN OF THE ECMWF EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT TRIES TO DIG AN H5 SHORT
WAVE/CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE THE GFS
KEEPS THIS SYSTEM WEAK AND FLAT. OVERALL...WITH THE GENERAL W-NW
WIND FLOW...A COUPLE OF FRONTS WILL PASS WITH LITTLE FANFARE
THOUGH WILL BRING SHOTS OF COLDER AIR.

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE MAINTAINED PRETTY GOOD CONTINUITY EARLY
IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD...THEN LOWERS AS TIMING ISSUES COME INTO
PLAY EARLY NEXT WEEK. USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND THEN LEANED TOWARD THE MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THIS
FORECAST.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...SHORT WAVE CLEARS THE COAST DURING THE MORNING WITH ANY
CLOUDS TENDING TO DISSIPATE AND PUSH OFFSHORE. CORE OF COLDER AIR
WORKS IN ON GENERALLY LIGHT NW WINDS. HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE
30S...RUNNING AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. HIGH PRES
APPROACHES FROM THE W FRI NIGHT. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO DROP AGAIN TO THE TEENS TO MID
20S...EXCEPT LOWER 30S ON THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...HIGH PRES CRESTS ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD
DURING SAT THEN SETTLES E OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY. RESIDUAL COLD
AIR IN PLACE ON SAT WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S...THOUGH WILL
RISE TO THE MID 40S ALONG THE S COAST. A WEAK WARM FRONT MAY BRING
ISOLD SHOWERS TO THE REGION SAT NIGHT...THEN SW WINDS TAKE OVER
FOR SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS FROM 45-50 ACROSS THE INTERIOR...RANGING
TO THE MID 50S ALONG THE S COAST WITH GUSTY SW WINDS. SOME CLOUDS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP WITH APPROACHING FRONT POSSIBLE SUN
NIGHT...THOUGH TIMING IN QUESTION.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SOME QUESTION ON TIMING OF NEXT H5 SHORT WAVE
APPROACHING THE REGION...THOUGH WILL TEND TO BE A RATHER DRY
SYSTEM WITH NEARLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW IN PLACE. CONTINUED TO CARRY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MON...AND SOME QUESTION ON PTYPE DEPENDING UPON
TEMP PROFILE AS SYSTEM APPROACHES. FOR NOW...SHOULD SEE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS MON NIGHT/TUE THOUGH LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD
AIR MOVES IN. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

7 AM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 06Z TAFS. PRECIP SHIELD COMING ONSHORE ALONG
SOUTH COAST AS OF 12Z. PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION THRU 15Z/16Z...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN EXPECT NORTHWEST
MA AND SOUTHWEST NH SNOW OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. NNW WINDS
ALREADY BEGINNING TO TURN TO THE NORTHEAST. EARLIER DISCUSSION
BELOW.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE REGION 12Z-16Z FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. PRECIP
MAINLY RAIN ACROSS MOST OF RI /EXCEPT NORTH- NORTHWEST AREAS/ AND
SOUTHEAST MA. HEAVY SNOW AND LIFR 18Z-00Z ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A
LINE FROM BAF-CEF-FIT-ASH-MHT WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES
PER HOUR POSSIBLE 18Z-00Z. SNOW MIXES WITH SLEET SOUTHEAST OF THIS
AREA FROM BDL-ORH-LWM. STRONG NE WINDS UP TO 45 KT LIKELY AFTER
21Z OVER CAPE COD/ISLANDS AND COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY.

TONIGHT...HEAVY PRECIP LINGERS UNTIL 02Z/03Z ESPECIALLY EASTERN
AREAS INCLUDING MHT. PRECIP TAPERS OFF AFTER 03Z AND ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. STRONG NNE WINDS TIL 06Z
THEN BACKING TO NNW.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING ESPECIALLY PTYPE. HEAVIEST PRECIP 20Z-03Z

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING ESPECIALLY PTYPE. HEAVIEST PRECIP 18Z-00Z.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY
THEN SHOULD IMPROVE THU NIGHT. DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS.

FRIDAY...VFR. NW WINDS GUSTING 15-20 KNOTS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...THOUGH CLOUDS INCREASE LATE SAT/SAT
NIGHT. LOW PROB FOR MVFR CIGS MOVING NORTH OFF THE OCEAN INTO CAPE
COD AND ISLANDS. SW WINDS INCREASE TO 30-40 KT AT 2-3KFT BY
SUNDAY...THOUGH WILL REMAIN LIGHTER AT GROUND LEVEL.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...GALE CENTER TRACKS OVER OR NEAR NANTUCKET EARLY
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF NE GALES WITH A LOW
RISK OF A FEW STORM FORCE GUSTS NEAR SHORE EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS
LIKELY EASE AROUND MIDNIGHT OVER CAPE AND ISLANDS AS LOW CENTER
TRACKS ACROSS THIS AREA. SEAS BUILD RAPIDLY TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
POOR VSBY IN HEAVY RAIN. WINDS BECOME NNW LATER TONIGHT AS THE GALE
CENTER RACES NE TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...WILL SEE NW WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT EARLY...THEN SHOULD
DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEAS UP TO 6-11 FEET OVER OPEN
WATERS...HIGHEST WELL OFFSHORE...BUT WILL SUBSIDE TO 4-7 FT LATE IN
THE DAY AND CONTINUE TO LOWER THU NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
BE NEEDED ON MOST WATERS.

FRIDAY...NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT. SEAS LINGER AT AROUND 5 FT ON
THE OUTER WATERS. SMALL CRAFT MAY NEED TO BE CONTINUES FOR A TIME.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH FRI NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...WINDS BACK TO SW DURING SAT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KT. WILL SEE GUSTS UP TO 25 KT LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. SEAS BUILD TO
AROUND 5 FT DURING SUN. SMALL CRAFTS MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH TIDE OF CONCERN IS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. STRONGEST
WINDS AND PRESSURE FALLS OCCUR DURING LOW TIDE THIS EVENING WITH
WINDS AND SURGE EASING TOWARD HIGH TIDE.  THUS IMPACTS WILL BE
LIMITED WITH VERY MINOR EROSION AND TIDAL FLOODING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ002>006-
     008>012-026.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MAZ019>024.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ007-
     013>016.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NHZ011-012-
     015.
RI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR RIZ005>008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR RIZ001>003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 261153
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
653 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM WILL TRACK NEAR NANTUCKET THIS EVENING...
THEN QUICKLY MOVING OUT TO SEA OVERNIGHT. THIS STORM WILL BRING A
VARIETY OF WEATHER IMPACTS TO THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
HEAVY SNOW WELL INLAND...HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS ALONG THE
COAST. WEATHER CONDITIONS IMPROVE FOR THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE OVER
THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

*** WINTER STORM TRENDING CLOSER TO THE COAST RESULTING IN A
 RAIN/SNOW LINE FARTHER INLAND ***

7 AM UPDATE...

LEADING EDGE OF WARM CONVEYOR BELT PRECIP /NOSE OF MID LEVEL JET/
COMING ONSHORE ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WITH DEW
PTS IN THE M20S TO L30S HAS RESULTED IN DEW PT DEPRESSIONS ON THE
ORDER OF 10-20 DEGS. THIS LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL INITIALLY ERODE
LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP. THUS DELAYED PRECIP ARRIVAL BY ONLY AN
HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK.

MESOANALYSIS INDICATES LOW PRES ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WITH GOOD
PRES FALLS FROM NJ SOUTHWARD. THIS HAS RESULTED IN WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHEAST AT NANTUCKET AND FALMOUTH. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE THRU THE MORNING..NNW WINDS TRENDING TOWARD NE.

AS FOR 06Z MODEL GUIDANCE...GFS AND NAM HAVE NOT DEVIATED MUCH
FROM THEIR 00Z RUNS WITH SURFACE LOW PASSING NEAR NANTUCKET ALONG
WITH MID LEVEL LOW TRACKING OVER NORTHWEST MA AND SOUTHWEST NH.
THUS THREAT AREA FOR HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHWEST MA AND
SOUTHWEST NH. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

--------------------------------------------------------------------

IMPACTS...

* HEAVY SNOW WESTERN AND CENTRAL MA INTO SOUTHERN NH
* STRONG WINDS SOUTHEAST MA AND SOUTHERN RI
* HEAVY RAIN AND MINOR POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN FLOODING MUCH OF RI AND
  SOUTHEAST MA

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH THE SURFACE
LOW PASSING OVER OR NEAR NANTUCKET. THIS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST MAY
BE THE RESULT OF WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT UPSTREAM CONVECTION FROM
OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS FL TO WEST OF
CUBA. THIS CONVECTION MAY HAVE YIELDED A STRONGER DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLC RESULTING IN A STORM TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST.

REGARDING MODEL SOLUTIONS ECMWF AND GFS ARE FARTHEST NORTHWEST AND
WARMEST. NAM CONSIDERABLY COOLER. FOR EXAMPLE THE NAM BUFKIT AT ORH
OFFERS AN ALL SNOW EVENT WITH 9-12 INCHES. MEANWHILE THE GFS BUFKIT
HAS MID LEVEL WARM INTRUSION WITH SNOW MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO
SLEET THEN BACK TO SNOW...BUT RESULTING IN ONLY 5 OR 6 INCHES. MORE
OF THE SAME AT BDL. PATTERN RECOGNITION SUGGEST AXIS OF HEAVIEST
SNOW SHOULD BE ALONG AND JUST NORTHWEST OF H7 LOW TRACK...WHICH
MODELS AGREE WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH.

PTYPE AND SNOWFALL...

GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON TRACK OF H7 LOW FAIRLY CONFIDENT ON
AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM BAF-CEF-FIT-
ASH-MHT. A SWATH OF 6-12 INCHES IS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS AREA. SNOW
WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY AT TIMES ACROSS THIS REGION FROM 18Z-02Z-ISH AS
STRONG MID LEVEL FGEN COMBINES WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TO PRODUCE
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR. EVEN A LOW PROB OF
THUNDERSNOW AS DRY SLOT APPROACHES. GIVEN THERMAL PROFILES ARE
ISOTHERMAL HEAVY WET SNOW MAY RESULT IN A RISK OF DOWN
BRANCHES/SMALL LIMBS...INCREASING THE RISK FOR POWER OUTAGES ACROSS
NORTHWEST MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH. SNOW GROWTH DOES NOT LOOK IDEAL SO
EXPECTING SLR TO RANGE FROM 8-1 TO 12-1.

FARTHER SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN CT-WORCESTER COUNTY OF MA AND INTO
NORTHEAST MA...SNOW MAY MIX WITH SLEET FOR A TIME LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW LATER IN THE
EVENING. THIS MIX OF SLEET WILL REDUCE SNOW TOTALS SOMEWHAT HOWEVER
WILL ADD TO THE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR
EXPECTING A COLD RAIN TO MIX WITH SLEET AND SNOW LATER IN THE DAY
AND EVENING...YIELDING A SLUSHY MINOR ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.
NEVERTHELESS THIS WILL YIELD SLIPPERY TRAVEL ESPECIALLY 21Z-03Z WHEN
PRECIP INTENSITY IS AT ITS GREATEST.

FINALLY FOR SOUTHERN RI AND SOUTHEAST MA...MAINLY A WIND SWEPT RAIN
STORM WITH MINOR POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN FLOODING AS RAINFALL TOTALS OF
UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.

OVERALL...NOT PLANNING ON CHANGING ANY HEADLINES DESPITE LOWERING
SNOWFALL TOTALS. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND SLEET ON THIS BUSY
TRAVEL DAY WITH PRECIP INTENSITY HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING JUSTIFIES THE WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES DESPITE SNOW TOTALS
POSSIBLY FALLING SHORT OF CRITERIA. THUS HEADLINES WILL BE MAINLY
BASED ON IMPACTS. AS FOR SNOWFALL TOTALS...BASICALLY BLENDED THE
WARMER 00Z MODEL SOLUTION WITH PREVIOUS SNOWFALL FORECAST WHICH
RESULTED IN LOWER SNOW TOTALS AND AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL FARTHER
INLAND. HOWEVER IF 12Z GUIDANCE TRENDS CLOSER TO THE COAST DAY SHIFT
WILL LIKELY HAVE TO LOWER AMOUNTS AND SHIFT AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW
FARTHER INLAND.

ONSET...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON PRECIP COMING ONSHORE TO THE SOUTH
COAST 6 AM TO 8 AM AND THEN RAPIDLY OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF
CT/RI AND MA RAPIDLY SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST 8 AM TO NOON.

PRECIP INTENSITY...HEAVIEST 1 PM TO 8 PM FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST.

WINDS...

A STRONG LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST JET WILL MOVE ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST
MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS AROUND 00Z. MODELS PROJECTING
50 TO 65 KT JET AT 925 MB. GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST. THIS COUPLED WITH
STRONG PRES FALLS AND RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WATERS PROVIDING A WELL
MIXED BLYR WILL YIELD A MODERATE RISK OF 50 MPH WIND GUSTS FROM
SOUTH COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY/CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. GIVEN TRACK
OF LOW IS FARTHER NW STRONG WIND FIELD NOW MOVES ACROSS COASTAL RI
AND SOUTHEAST MA. THUS WILL EXPAND WIND ADVISORY TO THIS AREA. WINDS
MAY DECREASE OVER THE ISLANDS FOR A TIME THIS EVENING AS LOW MAKES
IT CLOSEST APPROACH...SOMEWHERE NEAR NANTUCKET. TIMING OF STRONGEST
WINDS APPEAR 4 PM WED TIL 1 AM THU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...

THANKSGIVING DAY...H5 LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH A CUTOFF LOW IN THIS FLOW. AMPLE LOW
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO WILL SEE LINGERING
CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. GOOD SHOT OF
COLD AIR ADVECTION WORKING IN. DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. H85 TEMPS FALL BACK TO -5C TO -10C
THU NIGHT SO TEMPS WILL TUMBLE...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS
AND 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...THOUGH WILL HOLD IN THE 30 TO 35
DEGREE RANGE ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. WET ROADWAYS AND
SIDEWALKS WILL FREEZE UP AS TEMPS FALL THU NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON
UNTREATED SURFACES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN FLATTENING
OUT THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...WITH
SURFACE WEATHER SYSTEMS TENDING TO MOVE QUICKLY ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER STATES THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THIS TIMEFRAME.
HAVE NOTED TIMING DIFFERENCES WORKING IN ESPECIALLY ON THE 00Z OP
RUN OF THE ECMWF EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT TRIES TO DIG AN H5 SHORT
WAVE/CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE THE GFS
KEEPS THIS SYSTEM WEAK AND FLAT. OVERALL...WITH THE GENERAL W-NW
WIND FLOW...A COUPLE OF FRONTS WILL PASS WITH LITTLE FANFARE
THOUGH WILL BRING SHOTS OF COLDER AIR.

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE MAINTAINED PRETTY GOOD CONTINUITY EARLY
IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD...THEN LOWERS AS TIMING ISSUES COME INTO
PLAY EARLY NEXT WEEK. USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND THEN LEANED TOWARD THE MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THIS
FORECAST.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...SHORT WAVE CLEARS THE COAST DURING THE MORNING WITH ANY
CLOUDS TENDING TO DISSIPATE AND PUSH OFFSHORE. CORE OF COLDER AIR
WORKS IN ON GENERALLY LIGHT NW WINDS. HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE
30S...RUNNING AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. HIGH PRES
APPROACHES FROM THE W FRI NIGHT. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO DROP AGAIN TO THE TEENS TO MID
20S...EXCEPT LOWER 30S ON THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...HIGH PRES CRESTS ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD
DURING SAT THEN SETTLES E OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY. RESIDUAL COLD
AIR IN PLACE ON SAT WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S...THOUGH WILL
RISE TO THE MID 40S ALONG THE S COAST. A WEAK WARM FRONT MAY BRING
ISOLD SHOWERS TO THE REGION SAT NIGHT...THEN SW WINDS TAKE OVER
FOR SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS FROM 45-50 ACROSS THE INTERIOR...RANGING
TO THE MID 50S ALONG THE S COAST WITH GUSTY SW WINDS. SOME CLOUDS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP WITH APPROACHING FRONT POSSIBLE SUN
NIGHT...THOUGH TIMING IN QUESTION.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SOME QUESTION ON TIMING OF NEXT H5 SHORT WAVE
APPROACHING THE REGION...THOUGH WILL TEND TO BE A RATHER DRY
SYSTEM WITH NEARLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW IN PLACE. CONTINUED TO CARRY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MON...AND SOME QUESTION ON PTYPE DEPENDING UPON
TEMP PROFILE AS SYSTEM APPROACHES. FOR NOW...SHOULD SEE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS MON NIGHT/TUE THOUGH LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD
AIR MOVES IN. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

7 AM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 06Z TAFS. PRECIP SHIELD COMING ONSHORE ALONG
SOUTH COAST AS OF 12Z. PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION THRU 15Z/16Z...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN EXPECT NORTHWEST
MA AND SOUTHWEST NH SNOW OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. NNW WINDS
ALREADY BEGINNING TO TURN TO THE NORTHEAST. EARLIER DISCUSSION
BELOW.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE REGION 12Z-16Z FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. PRECIP
MAINLY RAIN ACROSS MOST OF RI /EXCEPT NORTH- NORTHWEST AREAS/ AND
SOUTHEAST MA. HEAVY SNOW AND LIFR 18Z-00Z ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A
LINE FROM BAF-CEF-FIT-ASH-MHT WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES
PER HOUR POSSIBLE 18Z-00Z. SNOW MIXES WITH SLEET SOUTHEAST OF THIS
AREA FROM BDL-ORH-LWM. STRONG NE WINDS UP TO 45 KT LIKELY AFTER
21Z OVER CAPE COD/ISLANDS AND COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY.

TONIGHT...HEAVY PRECIP LINGERS UNTIL 02Z/03Z ESPECIALLY EASTERN
AREAS INCLUDING MHT. PRECIP TAPERS OFF AFTER 03Z AND ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. STRONG NNE WINDS TIL 06Z
THEN BACKING TO NNW.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING ESPECIALLY PTYPE. HEAVIEST PRECIP 20Z-03Z

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING ESPECIALLY PTYPE. HEAVIEST PRECIP 18Z-00Z.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY
THEN SHOULD IMPROVE THU NIGHT. DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS.

FRIDAY...VFR. NW WINDS GUSTING 15-20 KNOTS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...THOUGH CLOUDS INCREASE LATE SAT/SAT
NIGHT. LOW PROB FOR MVFR CIGS MOVING NORTH OFF THE OCEAN INTO CAPE
COD AND ISLANDS. SW WINDS INCREASE TO 30-40 KT AT 2-3KFT BY
SUNDAY...THOUGH WILL REMAIN LIGHTER AT GROUND LEVEL.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...GALE CENTER TRACKS OVER OR NEAR NANTUCKET EARLY
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF NE GALES WITH A LOW
RISK OF A FEW STORM FORCE GUSTS NEAR SHORE EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS
LIKELY EASE AROUND MIDNIGHT OVER CAPE AND ISLANDS AS LOW CENTER
TRACKS ACROSS THIS AREA. SEAS BUILD RAPIDLY TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
POOR VSBY IN HEAVY RAIN. WINDS BECOME NNW LATER TONIGHT AS THE GALE
CENTER RACES NE TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...WILL SEE NW WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT EARLY...THEN SHOULD
DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEAS UP TO 6-11 FEET OVER OPEN
WATERS...HIGHEST WELL OFFSHORE...BUT WILL SUBSIDE TO 4-7 FT LATE IN
THE DAY AND CONTINUE TO LOWER THU NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
BE NEEDED ON MOST WATERS.

FRIDAY...NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT. SEAS LINGER AT AROUND 5 FT ON
THE OUTER WATERS. SMALL CRAFT MAY NEED TO BE CONTINUES FOR A TIME.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH FRI NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...WINDS BACK TO SW DURING SAT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KT. WILL SEE GUSTS UP TO 25 KT LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. SEAS BUILD TO
AROUND 5 FT DURING SUN. SMALL CRAFTS MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH TIDE OF CONCERN IS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. STRONGEST
WINDS AND PRESSURE FALLS OCCUR DURING LOW TIDE THIS EVENING WITH
WINDS AND SURGE EASING TOWARD HIGH TIDE.  THUS IMPACTS WILL BE
LIMITED WITH VERY MINOR EROSION AND TIDAL FLOODING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ002>006-
     008>012-026.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MAZ019>024.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ007-
     013>016.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NHZ011-012-
     015.
RI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR RIZ005>008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR RIZ001>003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 261010
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
510 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM WILL TRACK NEAR OR OVER NANTUCKET THIS
EVENING...THEN QUICKLY MOVING OUT TO SEA OVERNIGHT. THIS STORM
WILL BRING VARIOUS WEATHER IMPACTS TO THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH HEAVY SNOW WELL INLAND...HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS
ALONG THE COAST. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FOR THANKSGIVING
DAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND SHIFTS
OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF PRECIP...COMING
ONSHORE TO THE SOUTH COAST 6 AM TO 8 AM. THUS MOST OF THE MORNING
COMMUTE WILL REMAIN DRY. COOLER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING ON LIGHT NNW FLOW. DEW PTS DOWN INTO THE MU20S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...

*** WINTER STORM TRENDING CLOSER TO COAST RESULTING IN A RAIN/SNOW
 LINE FARTHER INLAND ***

IMPACTS...

* HEAVY SNOW WESTERN AND CENTRAL MA INTO SOUTHERN NH
* STRONG WINDS SOUTHEAST MA AND SOUTHERN RI
* HEAVY RAIN AND MINOR POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN FLOODING MUCH OF RI AND
  SOUTHEAST MA

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH THE SURFACE
LOW PASSING OVER OR NEAR NANTUCKET. THIS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST MAY
BE THE RESULT OF WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT UPSTREAM CONVECTION FROM
OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS FL TO WEST OF
CUBA. THIS CONVECTION MAY HAVE YIELDED A STRONGER DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLC RESULTING IN A STORM TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST.

REGARDING MODEL SOLUTIONS ECMWF AND GFS ARE FARTHEST NORTHWEST AND
WARMEST. NAM CONSIDERABLY COOLER. FOR EXAMPLE THE NAM BUFKIT AT ORH
OFFERS AN ALL SNOW EVENT WITH 9-12 INCHES. MEANWHILE THE GFS BUFKIT
HAS MID LEVEL WARM INTRUSION WITH SNOW MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO
SLEET THEN BACK TO SNOW...BUT RESULTING IN ONLY 5 OR 6 INCHES. MORE
OF THE SAME AT BDL. PATTERN RECOGNITION SUGGEST AXIS OF HEAVIEST
SNOW SHOULD BE ALONG AND JUST NORTHWEST OF H7 LOW TRACK...WHICH
MODELS AGREE WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH.

PTYPE AND SNOWFALL...

GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON TRACK OF H7 LOW FAIRLY CONFIDENT ON
AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM BAF-CEF-FIT-
ASH-MHT. A SWATH OF 6-12 INCHES IS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS AREA. SNOW
WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY AT TIMES ACROSS THIS REGION FROM 18Z-02Z-ISH AS
STRONG MID LEVEL FGEN COMBINES WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TO PRODUCE
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR. EVEN A LOW PROB OF
THUNDERSNOW AS DRY SLOT APPROACHES. GIVEN THERMAL PROFILES ARE
ISOTHERMAL HEAVY WET SNOW MAY RESULT IN A RISK OF DOWN
BRANCHES/SMALL LIMBS...INCREASING THE RISK FOR POWER OUTAGES ACROSS
NORTHWEST MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH. SNOW GROWTH DOES NOT LOOK IDEAL SO
EXPECTING SLR TO RANGE FROM 8-1 TO 12-1.

FARTHER SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN CT-WORCESTER COUNTY OF MA AND INTO
NORTHEAST MA...SNOW MAY MIX WITH SLEET FOR A TIME LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW LATER IN THE
EVENING. THIS MIX OF SLEET WILL REDUCE SNOW TOTALS SOMEWHAT HOWEVER
WILL ADD TO THE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR
EXPECTING A COLD RAIN TO MIX WITH SLEET AND SNOW LATER IN THE DAY
AND EVENING...YIELDING A SLUSHY MINOR ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.
NEVERTHELESS THIS WILL YIELD SLIPPERY TRAVEL ESPECIALLY 21Z-03Z WHEN
PRECIP INTENSITY IS AT ITS GREATEST.

FINALLY FOR SOUTHERN RI AND SOUTHEAST MA...MAINLY A WIND SWEPT RAIN
STORM WITH MINOR POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN FLOODING AS RAINFALL TOTALS OF
UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.

OVERALL...NOT PLANNING ON CHANGING ANY HEADLINES DESPITE LOWERING
SNOWFALL TOTALS. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND SLEET ON THIS BUSY
TRAVEL DAY WITH PRECIP INTENSITY HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING JUSTIFIES THE WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES DESPITE SNOW TOTALS
POSSIBLY FALLING SHORT OF CRITERIA. THUS HEADLINES WILL BE MAINLY
BASED ON IMPACTS. AS FOR SNOWFALL TOTALS...BASICALLY BLENDED THE
WARMER 00Z MODEL SOLUTION WITH PREVIOUS SNOWFALL FORECAST WHICH
RESULTED IN LOWER SNOW TOTALS AND AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL FARTHER
INLAND. HOWEVER IF 12Z GUIDANCE TRENDS CLOSER TO THE COAST DAY SHIFT
WILL LIKELY HAVE TO LOWER AMOUNTS AND SHIFT AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW
FARTHER INLAND.

ONSET...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON PRECIP COMING ONSHORE TO THE SOUTH
COAST 6 AM TO 8 AM AND THEN RAPIDLY OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF
CT/RI AND MA RAPIDLY SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST 8 AM TO NOON.

PRECIP INTENSITY...HEAVIEST 1 PM TO 8 PM FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST.

WINDS...

A STRONG LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST JET WILL MOVE ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST
MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS AROUND 00Z. MODELS PROJECTING
50 TO 65 KT JET AT 925 MB. GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST. THIS COUPLED WITH
STRONG PRES FALLS AND RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WATERS PROVIDING A WELL
MIXED BLYR WILL YIELD A MODERATE RISK OF 50 MPH WIND GUSTS FROM
SOUTH COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY/CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. GIVEN TRACK
OF LOW IS FARTHER NW STRONG WIND FIELD NOW MOVES ACROSS COASTAL RI
AND SOUTHEAST MA. THUS WILL EXPAND WIND ADVISORY TO THIS AREA. WINDS
MAY DECREASE OVER THE ISLANDS FOR A TIME THIS EVENING AS LOW MAKES
IT CLOSEST APPROACH...SOMEWHERE NEAR NANTUCKET. TIMING OF STRONGEST
WINDS APPEAR 4 PM WED TIL 1 AM THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN FLATTENING
OUT THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...WITH
SURFACE WEATHER SYSTEMS TENDING TO MOVE QUICKLY ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER STATES THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THIS TIMEFRAME.
HAVE NOTED TIMING DIFFERENCES WORKING IN ESPECIALLY ON THE 00Z OP
RUN OF THE ECMWF EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT TRIES TO DIG AN H5 SHORT
WAVE/CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE THE GFS
KEEPS THIS SYSTEM WEAK AND FLAT. OVERALL...WITH THE GENERAL W-NW
WIND FLOW...A COUPLE OF FRONTS WILL PASS WITH LITTLE FANFARE
THOUGH WILL BRING SHOTS OF COLDER AIR.

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE MAINTAINED PRETTY GOOD CONTINUITY EARLY
IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD...THEN LOWERS AS TIMING ISSUES COME INTO
PLAY EARLY NEXT WEEK. USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND THEN LEANED TOWARD THE MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THIS
FORECAST.

DETAILS...

THANKSGIVING DAY...H5 LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH A CUTOFF LOW IN THIS FLOW. AMPLE LOW
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO WILL SEE LINGERING
CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. GOOD SHOT OF
COLD AIR ADVECTION WORKING IN. DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. H85 TEMPS FALL BACK TO -5C TO -10C
THU NIGHT SO TEMPS WILL TUMBLE...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS
AND 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...THOUGH WILL HOLD IN THE 30 TO 35
DEGREE RANGE ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. WET ROADWAYS AND
SIDEWALKS WILL FREEZE UP AS TEMPS FALL THU NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON
UNTREATED SURFACES.

FRIDAY...SHORT WAVE CLEARS THE COAST DURING THE MORNING WITH ANY
CLOUDS TENDING TO DISSIPATE AND PUSH OFFSHORE. CORE OF COLDER AIR
WORKS IN ON GENERALLY LIGHT NW WINDS. HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE
30S...RUNNING AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. HIGH PRES
APPROACHES FROM THE W FRI NIGHT. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO DROP AGAIN TO THE TEENS TO MID
20S...EXCEPT LOWER 30S ON THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...HIGH PRES CRESTS ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD
DURING SAT THEN SETTLES E OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY. RESIDUAL COLD
AIR IN PLACE ON SAT WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S...THOUGH WILL
RISE TO THE MID 40S ALONG THE S COAST. A WEAK WARM FRONT MAY BRING
ISOLD SHOWERS TO THE REGION SAT NIGHT...THEN SW WINDS TAKE OVER
FOR SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS FROM 45-50 ACROSS THE INTERIOR...RANGING
TO THE MID 50S ALONG THE S COAST WITH GUSTY SW WINDS. SOME CLOUDS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP WITH APPROACHING FRONT POSSIBLE SUN
NIGHT...THOUGH TIMING IN QUESTION.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SOME QUESTION ON TIMING OF NEXT H5 SHORT WAVE
APPROACHING THE REGION...THOUGH WILL TEND TO BE A RATHER DRY
SYSTEM WITH NEARLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW IN PLACE. CONTINUED TO CARRY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MON...AND SOME QUESTION ON PTYPE DEPENDING UPON
TEMP PROFILE AS SYSTEM APPROACHES. FOR NOW...SHOULD SEE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS MON NIGHT/TUE THOUGH LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD
AIR MOVES IN. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH A LOW RISK OF RAIN MOVING
ONSHORE INTO RI AND SOUTHEAST MA TOWARD 12Z. VFR WITH LIGHT NW
WINDS BECOMING NORTH.

AFTER 12Z...PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE REGION 12Z-16Z FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. PRECIP MAINLY RAIN ACROSS MOST OF RI /EXCEPT NORTH-
NORTHWEST AREAS/ AND SOUTHEAST MA. HEAVY SNOW AND LIFR 18Z-00Z
ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM BAF-CEF-FIT-ASH-MHT WITH
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE 18Z-00Z. SNOW MIXES
WITH SLEET SOUTHEAST OF THIS AREA FROM BDL-ORH-LWM. STRONG NE
WINDS UP TO 45 KT LIKELY AFTER 21Z OVER CAPE COD/ISLANDS AND
COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY.

TONIGHT...HEAVY PRECIP LINGERS UNTIL 02Z/03Z ESPECIALLY EASTERN
AREAS INCLUDING MHT. PRECIP TAPERS OFF AFTER 03Z AND ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. STRONG NNE WINDS TIL 06Z
THEN BACKING TO NNW.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING ESPECIALLY PTYPE. HEAVIEST PRECIP 20Z-03Z

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING ESPECIALLY PTYPE. HEAVIEST PRECIP 18Z-00Z.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY
THEN SHOULD IMPROVE THU NIGHT. DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS.

FRIDAY...VFR. NW WINDS GUSTING 15-20 KNOTS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...THOUGH CLOUDS INCREASE LATE SAT/SAT
NIGHT. LOW PROB FOR MVFR CIGS MOVING NORTH OFF THE OCEAN INTO CAPE
COD AND ISLANDS. SW WINDS INCREASE TO 30-40 KT AT 2-3KFT BY
SUNDAY...THOUGH WILL REMAIN LIGHTER AT GROUND LEVEL.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...GALE CENTER TRACKS OVER OR NEAR NANTUCKET EARLY
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF NE GALES WITH A LOW
RISK OF A FEW STORM FORCE GUSTS NEAR SHORE EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS
LIKELY EASE AROUND MIDNIGHT OVER CAPE AND ISLANDS AS LOW CENTER
TRACKS ACROSS THIS AREA. SEAS BUILD RAPIDLY TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
POOR VSBY IN HEAVY RAIN. WINDS BECOME NNW LATER TONIGHT AS THE GALE
CENTER RACES NE TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...WILL SEE NW WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT EARLY...THEN SHOULD
DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEAS UP TO 6-11 FEET OVER OPEN
WATERS...HIGHEST WELL OFFSHORE...BUT WILL SUBSIDE TO 4-7 FT LATE IN
THE DAY AND CONTINUE TO LOWER THU NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
BE NEEDED ON MOST WATERS.

FRIDAY...NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT. SEAS LINGER AT AROUND 5 FT ON
THE OUTER WATERS. SMALL CRAFT MAY NEED TO BE CONTINUES FOR A TIME.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH FRI NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...WINDS BACK TO SW DURING SAT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KT. WILL SEE GUSTS UP TO 25 KT LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. SEAS BUILD TO
AROUND 5 FT DURING SUN. SMALL CRAFTS MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH TIDE OF CONCERN IS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. STRONGEST
WINDS AND PRESSURE FALLS OCCUR DURING LOW TIDE THIS EVENING WITH
WINDS AND SURGE EASING TOWARD HIGH TIDE.  THUS IMPACTS WILL BE
LIMITED WITH VERY MINOR EROSION AND TIDAL FLOODING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ002>006-
     008>012-026.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MAZ019>024.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ007-
     013>016.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NHZ011-012-
     015.
RI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR RIZ005>008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR RIZ001>003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 261010
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
510 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM WILL TRACK NEAR OR OVER NANTUCKET THIS
EVENING...THEN QUICKLY MOVING OUT TO SEA OVERNIGHT. THIS STORM
WILL BRING VARIOUS WEATHER IMPACTS TO THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH HEAVY SNOW WELL INLAND...HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS
ALONG THE COAST. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FOR THANKSGIVING
DAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND SHIFTS
OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF PRECIP...COMING
ONSHORE TO THE SOUTH COAST 6 AM TO 8 AM. THUS MOST OF THE MORNING
COMMUTE WILL REMAIN DRY. COOLER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING ON LIGHT NNW FLOW. DEW PTS DOWN INTO THE MU20S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...

*** WINTER STORM TRENDING CLOSER TO COAST RESULTING IN A RAIN/SNOW
 LINE FARTHER INLAND ***

IMPACTS...

* HEAVY SNOW WESTERN AND CENTRAL MA INTO SOUTHERN NH
* STRONG WINDS SOUTHEAST MA AND SOUTHERN RI
* HEAVY RAIN AND MINOR POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN FLOODING MUCH OF RI AND
  SOUTHEAST MA

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH THE SURFACE
LOW PASSING OVER OR NEAR NANTUCKET. THIS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST MAY
BE THE RESULT OF WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT UPSTREAM CONVECTION FROM
OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS FL TO WEST OF
CUBA. THIS CONVECTION MAY HAVE YIELDED A STRONGER DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLC RESULTING IN A STORM TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST.

REGARDING MODEL SOLUTIONS ECMWF AND GFS ARE FARTHEST NORTHWEST AND
WARMEST. NAM CONSIDERABLY COOLER. FOR EXAMPLE THE NAM BUFKIT AT ORH
OFFERS AN ALL SNOW EVENT WITH 9-12 INCHES. MEANWHILE THE GFS BUFKIT
HAS MID LEVEL WARM INTRUSION WITH SNOW MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO
SLEET THEN BACK TO SNOW...BUT RESULTING IN ONLY 5 OR 6 INCHES. MORE
OF THE SAME AT BDL. PATTERN RECOGNITION SUGGEST AXIS OF HEAVIEST
SNOW SHOULD BE ALONG AND JUST NORTHWEST OF H7 LOW TRACK...WHICH
MODELS AGREE WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH.

PTYPE AND SNOWFALL...

GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON TRACK OF H7 LOW FAIRLY CONFIDENT ON
AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM BAF-CEF-FIT-
ASH-MHT. A SWATH OF 6-12 INCHES IS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS AREA. SNOW
WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY AT TIMES ACROSS THIS REGION FROM 18Z-02Z-ISH AS
STRONG MID LEVEL FGEN COMBINES WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TO PRODUCE
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR. EVEN A LOW PROB OF
THUNDERSNOW AS DRY SLOT APPROACHES. GIVEN THERMAL PROFILES ARE
ISOTHERMAL HEAVY WET SNOW MAY RESULT IN A RISK OF DOWN
BRANCHES/SMALL LIMBS...INCREASING THE RISK FOR POWER OUTAGES ACROSS
NORTHWEST MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH. SNOW GROWTH DOES NOT LOOK IDEAL SO
EXPECTING SLR TO RANGE FROM 8-1 TO 12-1.

FARTHER SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN CT-WORCESTER COUNTY OF MA AND INTO
NORTHEAST MA...SNOW MAY MIX WITH SLEET FOR A TIME LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW LATER IN THE
EVENING. THIS MIX OF SLEET WILL REDUCE SNOW TOTALS SOMEWHAT HOWEVER
WILL ADD TO THE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR
EXPECTING A COLD RAIN TO MIX WITH SLEET AND SNOW LATER IN THE DAY
AND EVENING...YIELDING A SLUSHY MINOR ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.
NEVERTHELESS THIS WILL YIELD SLIPPERY TRAVEL ESPECIALLY 21Z-03Z WHEN
PRECIP INTENSITY IS AT ITS GREATEST.

FINALLY FOR SOUTHERN RI AND SOUTHEAST MA...MAINLY A WIND SWEPT RAIN
STORM WITH MINOR POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN FLOODING AS RAINFALL TOTALS OF
UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.

OVERALL...NOT PLANNING ON CHANGING ANY HEADLINES DESPITE LOWERING
SNOWFALL TOTALS. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND SLEET ON THIS BUSY
TRAVEL DAY WITH PRECIP INTENSITY HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING JUSTIFIES THE WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES DESPITE SNOW TOTALS
POSSIBLY FALLING SHORT OF CRITERIA. THUS HEADLINES WILL BE MAINLY
BASED ON IMPACTS. AS FOR SNOWFALL TOTALS...BASICALLY BLENDED THE
WARMER 00Z MODEL SOLUTION WITH PREVIOUS SNOWFALL FORECAST WHICH
RESULTED IN LOWER SNOW TOTALS AND AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL FARTHER
INLAND. HOWEVER IF 12Z GUIDANCE TRENDS CLOSER TO THE COAST DAY SHIFT
WILL LIKELY HAVE TO LOWER AMOUNTS AND SHIFT AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW
FARTHER INLAND.

ONSET...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON PRECIP COMING ONSHORE TO THE SOUTH
COAST 6 AM TO 8 AM AND THEN RAPIDLY OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF
CT/RI AND MA RAPIDLY SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST 8 AM TO NOON.

PRECIP INTENSITY...HEAVIEST 1 PM TO 8 PM FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST.

WINDS...

A STRONG LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST JET WILL MOVE ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST
MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS AROUND 00Z. MODELS PROJECTING
50 TO 65 KT JET AT 925 MB. GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST. THIS COUPLED WITH
STRONG PRES FALLS AND RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WATERS PROVIDING A WELL
MIXED BLYR WILL YIELD A MODERATE RISK OF 50 MPH WIND GUSTS FROM
SOUTH COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY/CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. GIVEN TRACK
OF LOW IS FARTHER NW STRONG WIND FIELD NOW MOVES ACROSS COASTAL RI
AND SOUTHEAST MA. THUS WILL EXPAND WIND ADVISORY TO THIS AREA. WINDS
MAY DECREASE OVER THE ISLANDS FOR A TIME THIS EVENING AS LOW MAKES
IT CLOSEST APPROACH...SOMEWHERE NEAR NANTUCKET. TIMING OF STRONGEST
WINDS APPEAR 4 PM WED TIL 1 AM THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN FLATTENING
OUT THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...WITH
SURFACE WEATHER SYSTEMS TENDING TO MOVE QUICKLY ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER STATES THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THIS TIMEFRAME.
HAVE NOTED TIMING DIFFERENCES WORKING IN ESPECIALLY ON THE 00Z OP
RUN OF THE ECMWF EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT TRIES TO DIG AN H5 SHORT
WAVE/CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE THE GFS
KEEPS THIS SYSTEM WEAK AND FLAT. OVERALL...WITH THE GENERAL W-NW
WIND FLOW...A COUPLE OF FRONTS WILL PASS WITH LITTLE FANFARE
THOUGH WILL BRING SHOTS OF COLDER AIR.

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE MAINTAINED PRETTY GOOD CONTINUITY EARLY
IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD...THEN LOWERS AS TIMING ISSUES COME INTO
PLAY EARLY NEXT WEEK. USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND THEN LEANED TOWARD THE MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THIS
FORECAST.

DETAILS...

THANKSGIVING DAY...H5 LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH A CUTOFF LOW IN THIS FLOW. AMPLE LOW
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO WILL SEE LINGERING
CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. GOOD SHOT OF
COLD AIR ADVECTION WORKING IN. DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. H85 TEMPS FALL BACK TO -5C TO -10C
THU NIGHT SO TEMPS WILL TUMBLE...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS
AND 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...THOUGH WILL HOLD IN THE 30 TO 35
DEGREE RANGE ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. WET ROADWAYS AND
SIDEWALKS WILL FREEZE UP AS TEMPS FALL THU NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON
UNTREATED SURFACES.

FRIDAY...SHORT WAVE CLEARS THE COAST DURING THE MORNING WITH ANY
CLOUDS TENDING TO DISSIPATE AND PUSH OFFSHORE. CORE OF COLDER AIR
WORKS IN ON GENERALLY LIGHT NW WINDS. HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE
30S...RUNNING AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. HIGH PRES
APPROACHES FROM THE W FRI NIGHT. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO DROP AGAIN TO THE TEENS TO MID
20S...EXCEPT LOWER 30S ON THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...HIGH PRES CRESTS ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD
DURING SAT THEN SETTLES E OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY. RESIDUAL COLD
AIR IN PLACE ON SAT WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S...THOUGH WILL
RISE TO THE MID 40S ALONG THE S COAST. A WEAK WARM FRONT MAY BRING
ISOLD SHOWERS TO THE REGION SAT NIGHT...THEN SW WINDS TAKE OVER
FOR SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS FROM 45-50 ACROSS THE INTERIOR...RANGING
TO THE MID 50S ALONG THE S COAST WITH GUSTY SW WINDS. SOME CLOUDS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP WITH APPROACHING FRONT POSSIBLE SUN
NIGHT...THOUGH TIMING IN QUESTION.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SOME QUESTION ON TIMING OF NEXT H5 SHORT WAVE
APPROACHING THE REGION...THOUGH WILL TEND TO BE A RATHER DRY
SYSTEM WITH NEARLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW IN PLACE. CONTINUED TO CARRY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MON...AND SOME QUESTION ON PTYPE DEPENDING UPON
TEMP PROFILE AS SYSTEM APPROACHES. FOR NOW...SHOULD SEE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS MON NIGHT/TUE THOUGH LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD
AIR MOVES IN. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH A LOW RISK OF RAIN MOVING
ONSHORE INTO RI AND SOUTHEAST MA TOWARD 12Z. VFR WITH LIGHT NW
WINDS BECOMING NORTH.

AFTER 12Z...PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE REGION 12Z-16Z FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. PRECIP MAINLY RAIN ACROSS MOST OF RI /EXCEPT NORTH-
NORTHWEST AREAS/ AND SOUTHEAST MA. HEAVY SNOW AND LIFR 18Z-00Z
ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM BAF-CEF-FIT-ASH-MHT WITH
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE 18Z-00Z. SNOW MIXES
WITH SLEET SOUTHEAST OF THIS AREA FROM BDL-ORH-LWM. STRONG NE
WINDS UP TO 45 KT LIKELY AFTER 21Z OVER CAPE COD/ISLANDS AND
COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY.

TONIGHT...HEAVY PRECIP LINGERS UNTIL 02Z/03Z ESPECIALLY EASTERN
AREAS INCLUDING MHT. PRECIP TAPERS OFF AFTER 03Z AND ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. STRONG NNE WINDS TIL 06Z
THEN BACKING TO NNW.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING ESPECIALLY PTYPE. HEAVIEST PRECIP 20Z-03Z

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING ESPECIALLY PTYPE. HEAVIEST PRECIP 18Z-00Z.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY
THEN SHOULD IMPROVE THU NIGHT. DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS.

FRIDAY...VFR. NW WINDS GUSTING 15-20 KNOTS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...THOUGH CLOUDS INCREASE LATE SAT/SAT
NIGHT. LOW PROB FOR MVFR CIGS MOVING NORTH OFF THE OCEAN INTO CAPE
COD AND ISLANDS. SW WINDS INCREASE TO 30-40 KT AT 2-3KFT BY
SUNDAY...THOUGH WILL REMAIN LIGHTER AT GROUND LEVEL.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...GALE CENTER TRACKS OVER OR NEAR NANTUCKET EARLY
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF NE GALES WITH A LOW
RISK OF A FEW STORM FORCE GUSTS NEAR SHORE EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS
LIKELY EASE AROUND MIDNIGHT OVER CAPE AND ISLANDS AS LOW CENTER
TRACKS ACROSS THIS AREA. SEAS BUILD RAPIDLY TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
POOR VSBY IN HEAVY RAIN. WINDS BECOME NNW LATER TONIGHT AS THE GALE
CENTER RACES NE TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...WILL SEE NW WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT EARLY...THEN SHOULD
DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEAS UP TO 6-11 FEET OVER OPEN
WATERS...HIGHEST WELL OFFSHORE...BUT WILL SUBSIDE TO 4-7 FT LATE IN
THE DAY AND CONTINUE TO LOWER THU NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
BE NEEDED ON MOST WATERS.

FRIDAY...NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT. SEAS LINGER AT AROUND 5 FT ON
THE OUTER WATERS. SMALL CRAFT MAY NEED TO BE CONTINUES FOR A TIME.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH FRI NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...WINDS BACK TO SW DURING SAT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KT. WILL SEE GUSTS UP TO 25 KT LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. SEAS BUILD TO
AROUND 5 FT DURING SUN. SMALL CRAFTS MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH TIDE OF CONCERN IS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. STRONGEST
WINDS AND PRESSURE FALLS OCCUR DURING LOW TIDE THIS EVENING WITH
WINDS AND SURGE EASING TOWARD HIGH TIDE.  THUS IMPACTS WILL BE
LIMITED WITH VERY MINOR EROSION AND TIDAL FLOODING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ002>006-
     008>012-026.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MAZ019>024.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ007-
     013>016.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NHZ011-012-
     015.
RI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR RIZ005>008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR RIZ001>003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 261010
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
510 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM WILL TRACK NEAR OR OVER NANTUCKET THIS
EVENING...THEN QUICKLY MOVING OUT TO SEA OVERNIGHT. THIS STORM
WILL BRING VARIOUS WEATHER IMPACTS TO THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH HEAVY SNOW WELL INLAND...HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS
ALONG THE COAST. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FOR THANKSGIVING
DAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND SHIFTS
OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF PRECIP...COMING
ONSHORE TO THE SOUTH COAST 6 AM TO 8 AM. THUS MOST OF THE MORNING
COMMUTE WILL REMAIN DRY. COOLER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING ON LIGHT NNW FLOW. DEW PTS DOWN INTO THE MU20S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...

*** WINTER STORM TRENDING CLOSER TO COAST RESULTING IN A RAIN/SNOW
 LINE FARTHER INLAND ***

IMPACTS...

* HEAVY SNOW WESTERN AND CENTRAL MA INTO SOUTHERN NH
* STRONG WINDS SOUTHEAST MA AND SOUTHERN RI
* HEAVY RAIN AND MINOR POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN FLOODING MUCH OF RI AND
  SOUTHEAST MA

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH THE SURFACE
LOW PASSING OVER OR NEAR NANTUCKET. THIS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST MAY
BE THE RESULT OF WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT UPSTREAM CONVECTION FROM
OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS FL TO WEST OF
CUBA. THIS CONVECTION MAY HAVE YIELDED A STRONGER DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLC RESULTING IN A STORM TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST.

REGARDING MODEL SOLUTIONS ECMWF AND GFS ARE FARTHEST NORTHWEST AND
WARMEST. NAM CONSIDERABLY COOLER. FOR EXAMPLE THE NAM BUFKIT AT ORH
OFFERS AN ALL SNOW EVENT WITH 9-12 INCHES. MEANWHILE THE GFS BUFKIT
HAS MID LEVEL WARM INTRUSION WITH SNOW MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO
SLEET THEN BACK TO SNOW...BUT RESULTING IN ONLY 5 OR 6 INCHES. MORE
OF THE SAME AT BDL. PATTERN RECOGNITION SUGGEST AXIS OF HEAVIEST
SNOW SHOULD BE ALONG AND JUST NORTHWEST OF H7 LOW TRACK...WHICH
MODELS AGREE WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH.

PTYPE AND SNOWFALL...

GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON TRACK OF H7 LOW FAIRLY CONFIDENT ON
AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM BAF-CEF-FIT-
ASH-MHT. A SWATH OF 6-12 INCHES IS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS AREA. SNOW
WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY AT TIMES ACROSS THIS REGION FROM 18Z-02Z-ISH AS
STRONG MID LEVEL FGEN COMBINES WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TO PRODUCE
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR. EVEN A LOW PROB OF
THUNDERSNOW AS DRY SLOT APPROACHES. GIVEN THERMAL PROFILES ARE
ISOTHERMAL HEAVY WET SNOW MAY RESULT IN A RISK OF DOWN
BRANCHES/SMALL LIMBS...INCREASING THE RISK FOR POWER OUTAGES ACROSS
NORTHWEST MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH. SNOW GROWTH DOES NOT LOOK IDEAL SO
EXPECTING SLR TO RANGE FROM 8-1 TO 12-1.

FARTHER SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN CT-WORCESTER COUNTY OF MA AND INTO
NORTHEAST MA...SNOW MAY MIX WITH SLEET FOR A TIME LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW LATER IN THE
EVENING. THIS MIX OF SLEET WILL REDUCE SNOW TOTALS SOMEWHAT HOWEVER
WILL ADD TO THE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR
EXPECTING A COLD RAIN TO MIX WITH SLEET AND SNOW LATER IN THE DAY
AND EVENING...YIELDING A SLUSHY MINOR ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.
NEVERTHELESS THIS WILL YIELD SLIPPERY TRAVEL ESPECIALLY 21Z-03Z WHEN
PRECIP INTENSITY IS AT ITS GREATEST.

FINALLY FOR SOUTHERN RI AND SOUTHEAST MA...MAINLY A WIND SWEPT RAIN
STORM WITH MINOR POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN FLOODING AS RAINFALL TOTALS OF
UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.

OVERALL...NOT PLANNING ON CHANGING ANY HEADLINES DESPITE LOWERING
SNOWFALL TOTALS. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND SLEET ON THIS BUSY
TRAVEL DAY WITH PRECIP INTENSITY HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING JUSTIFIES THE WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES DESPITE SNOW TOTALS
POSSIBLY FALLING SHORT OF CRITERIA. THUS HEADLINES WILL BE MAINLY
BASED ON IMPACTS. AS FOR SNOWFALL TOTALS...BASICALLY BLENDED THE
WARMER 00Z MODEL SOLUTION WITH PREVIOUS SNOWFALL FORECAST WHICH
RESULTED IN LOWER SNOW TOTALS AND AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL FARTHER
INLAND. HOWEVER IF 12Z GUIDANCE TRENDS CLOSER TO THE COAST DAY SHIFT
WILL LIKELY HAVE TO LOWER AMOUNTS AND SHIFT AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW
FARTHER INLAND.

ONSET...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON PRECIP COMING ONSHORE TO THE SOUTH
COAST 6 AM TO 8 AM AND THEN RAPIDLY OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF
CT/RI AND MA RAPIDLY SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST 8 AM TO NOON.

PRECIP INTENSITY...HEAVIEST 1 PM TO 8 PM FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST.

WINDS...

A STRONG LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST JET WILL MOVE ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST
MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS AROUND 00Z. MODELS PROJECTING
50 TO 65 KT JET AT 925 MB. GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST. THIS COUPLED WITH
STRONG PRES FALLS AND RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WATERS PROVIDING A WELL
MIXED BLYR WILL YIELD A MODERATE RISK OF 50 MPH WIND GUSTS FROM
SOUTH COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY/CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. GIVEN TRACK
OF LOW IS FARTHER NW STRONG WIND FIELD NOW MOVES ACROSS COASTAL RI
AND SOUTHEAST MA. THUS WILL EXPAND WIND ADVISORY TO THIS AREA. WINDS
MAY DECREASE OVER THE ISLANDS FOR A TIME THIS EVENING AS LOW MAKES
IT CLOSEST APPROACH...SOMEWHERE NEAR NANTUCKET. TIMING OF STRONGEST
WINDS APPEAR 4 PM WED TIL 1 AM THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN FLATTENING
OUT THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...WITH
SURFACE WEATHER SYSTEMS TENDING TO MOVE QUICKLY ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER STATES THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THIS TIMEFRAME.
HAVE NOTED TIMING DIFFERENCES WORKING IN ESPECIALLY ON THE 00Z OP
RUN OF THE ECMWF EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT TRIES TO DIG AN H5 SHORT
WAVE/CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE THE GFS
KEEPS THIS SYSTEM WEAK AND FLAT. OVERALL...WITH THE GENERAL W-NW
WIND FLOW...A COUPLE OF FRONTS WILL PASS WITH LITTLE FANFARE
THOUGH WILL BRING SHOTS OF COLDER AIR.

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE MAINTAINED PRETTY GOOD CONTINUITY EARLY
IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD...THEN LOWERS AS TIMING ISSUES COME INTO
PLAY EARLY NEXT WEEK. USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND THEN LEANED TOWARD THE MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THIS
FORECAST.

DETAILS...

THANKSGIVING DAY...H5 LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH A CUTOFF LOW IN THIS FLOW. AMPLE LOW
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO WILL SEE LINGERING
CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. GOOD SHOT OF
COLD AIR ADVECTION WORKING IN. DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. H85 TEMPS FALL BACK TO -5C TO -10C
THU NIGHT SO TEMPS WILL TUMBLE...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS
AND 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...THOUGH WILL HOLD IN THE 30 TO 35
DEGREE RANGE ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. WET ROADWAYS AND
SIDEWALKS WILL FREEZE UP AS TEMPS FALL THU NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON
UNTREATED SURFACES.

FRIDAY...SHORT WAVE CLEARS THE COAST DURING THE MORNING WITH ANY
CLOUDS TENDING TO DISSIPATE AND PUSH OFFSHORE. CORE OF COLDER AIR
WORKS IN ON GENERALLY LIGHT NW WINDS. HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE
30S...RUNNING AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. HIGH PRES
APPROACHES FROM THE W FRI NIGHT. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO DROP AGAIN TO THE TEENS TO MID
20S...EXCEPT LOWER 30S ON THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...HIGH PRES CRESTS ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD
DURING SAT THEN SETTLES E OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY. RESIDUAL COLD
AIR IN PLACE ON SAT WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S...THOUGH WILL
RISE TO THE MID 40S ALONG THE S COAST. A WEAK WARM FRONT MAY BRING
ISOLD SHOWERS TO THE REGION SAT NIGHT...THEN SW WINDS TAKE OVER
FOR SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS FROM 45-50 ACROSS THE INTERIOR...RANGING
TO THE MID 50S ALONG THE S COAST WITH GUSTY SW WINDS. SOME CLOUDS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP WITH APPROACHING FRONT POSSIBLE SUN
NIGHT...THOUGH TIMING IN QUESTION.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SOME QUESTION ON TIMING OF NEXT H5 SHORT WAVE
APPROACHING THE REGION...THOUGH WILL TEND TO BE A RATHER DRY
SYSTEM WITH NEARLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW IN PLACE. CONTINUED TO CARRY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MON...AND SOME QUESTION ON PTYPE DEPENDING UPON
TEMP PROFILE AS SYSTEM APPROACHES. FOR NOW...SHOULD SEE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS MON NIGHT/TUE THOUGH LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD
AIR MOVES IN. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH A LOW RISK OF RAIN MOVING
ONSHORE INTO RI AND SOUTHEAST MA TOWARD 12Z. VFR WITH LIGHT NW
WINDS BECOMING NORTH.

AFTER 12Z...PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE REGION 12Z-16Z FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. PRECIP MAINLY RAIN ACROSS MOST OF RI /EXCEPT NORTH-
NORTHWEST AREAS/ AND SOUTHEAST MA. HEAVY SNOW AND LIFR 18Z-00Z
ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM BAF-CEF-FIT-ASH-MHT WITH
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE 18Z-00Z. SNOW MIXES
WITH SLEET SOUTHEAST OF THIS AREA FROM BDL-ORH-LWM. STRONG NE
WINDS UP TO 45 KT LIKELY AFTER 21Z OVER CAPE COD/ISLANDS AND
COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY.

TONIGHT...HEAVY PRECIP LINGERS UNTIL 02Z/03Z ESPECIALLY EASTERN
AREAS INCLUDING MHT. PRECIP TAPERS OFF AFTER 03Z AND ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. STRONG NNE WINDS TIL 06Z
THEN BACKING TO NNW.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING ESPECIALLY PTYPE. HEAVIEST PRECIP 20Z-03Z

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING ESPECIALLY PTYPE. HEAVIEST PRECIP 18Z-00Z.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY
THEN SHOULD IMPROVE THU NIGHT. DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS.

FRIDAY...VFR. NW WINDS GUSTING 15-20 KNOTS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...THOUGH CLOUDS INCREASE LATE SAT/SAT
NIGHT. LOW PROB FOR MVFR CIGS MOVING NORTH OFF THE OCEAN INTO CAPE
COD AND ISLANDS. SW WINDS INCREASE TO 30-40 KT AT 2-3KFT BY
SUNDAY...THOUGH WILL REMAIN LIGHTER AT GROUND LEVEL.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...GALE CENTER TRACKS OVER OR NEAR NANTUCKET EARLY
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF NE GALES WITH A LOW
RISK OF A FEW STORM FORCE GUSTS NEAR SHORE EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS
LIKELY EASE AROUND MIDNIGHT OVER CAPE AND ISLANDS AS LOW CENTER
TRACKS ACROSS THIS AREA. SEAS BUILD RAPIDLY TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
POOR VSBY IN HEAVY RAIN. WINDS BECOME NNW LATER TONIGHT AS THE GALE
CENTER RACES NE TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...WILL SEE NW WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT EARLY...THEN SHOULD
DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEAS UP TO 6-11 FEET OVER OPEN
WATERS...HIGHEST WELL OFFSHORE...BUT WILL SUBSIDE TO 4-7 FT LATE IN
THE DAY AND CONTINUE TO LOWER THU NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
BE NEEDED ON MOST WATERS.

FRIDAY...NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT. SEAS LINGER AT AROUND 5 FT ON
THE OUTER WATERS. SMALL CRAFT MAY NEED TO BE CONTINUES FOR A TIME.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH FRI NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...WINDS BACK TO SW DURING SAT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KT. WILL SEE GUSTS UP TO 25 KT LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. SEAS BUILD TO
AROUND 5 FT DURING SUN. SMALL CRAFTS MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH TIDE OF CONCERN IS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. STRONGEST
WINDS AND PRESSURE FALLS OCCUR DURING LOW TIDE THIS EVENING WITH
WINDS AND SURGE EASING TOWARD HIGH TIDE.  THUS IMPACTS WILL BE
LIMITED WITH VERY MINOR EROSION AND TIDAL FLOODING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ002>006-
     008>012-026.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MAZ019>024.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ007-
     013>016.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NHZ011-012-
     015.
RI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR RIZ005>008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR RIZ001>003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NOCERA



000
FXUS61 KBOX 261010
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
510 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM WILL TRACK NEAR OR OVER NANTUCKET THIS
EVENING...THEN QUICKLY MOVING OUT TO SEA OVERNIGHT. THIS STORM
WILL BRING VARIOUS WEATHER IMPACTS TO THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH HEAVY SNOW WELL INLAND...HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS
ALONG THE COAST. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FOR THANKSGIVING
DAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND SHIFTS
OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF PRECIP...COMING
ONSHORE TO THE SOUTH COAST 6 AM TO 8 AM. THUS MOST OF THE MORNING
COMMUTE WILL REMAIN DRY. COOLER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING ON LIGHT NNW FLOW. DEW PTS DOWN INTO THE MU20S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...

*** WINTER STORM TRENDING CLOSER TO COAST RESULTING IN A RAIN/SNOW
 LINE FARTHER INLAND ***

IMPACTS...

* HEAVY SNOW WESTERN AND CENTRAL MA INTO SOUTHERN NH
* STRONG WINDS SOUTHEAST MA AND SOUTHERN RI
* HEAVY RAIN AND MINOR POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN FLOODING MUCH OF RI AND
  SOUTHEAST MA

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH THE SURFACE
LOW PASSING OVER OR NEAR NANTUCKET. THIS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST MAY
BE THE RESULT OF WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT UPSTREAM CONVECTION FROM
OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS FL TO WEST OF
CUBA. THIS CONVECTION MAY HAVE YIELDED A STRONGER DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLC RESULTING IN A STORM TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST.

REGARDING MODEL SOLUTIONS ECMWF AND GFS ARE FARTHEST NORTHWEST AND
WARMEST. NAM CONSIDERABLY COOLER. FOR EXAMPLE THE NAM BUFKIT AT ORH
OFFERS AN ALL SNOW EVENT WITH 9-12 INCHES. MEANWHILE THE GFS BUFKIT
HAS MID LEVEL WARM INTRUSION WITH SNOW MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO
SLEET THEN BACK TO SNOW...BUT RESULTING IN ONLY 5 OR 6 INCHES. MORE
OF THE SAME AT BDL. PATTERN RECOGNITION SUGGEST AXIS OF HEAVIEST
SNOW SHOULD BE ALONG AND JUST NORTHWEST OF H7 LOW TRACK...WHICH
MODELS AGREE WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH.

PTYPE AND SNOWFALL...

GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON TRACK OF H7 LOW FAIRLY CONFIDENT ON
AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM BAF-CEF-FIT-
ASH-MHT. A SWATH OF 6-12 INCHES IS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS AREA. SNOW
WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY AT TIMES ACROSS THIS REGION FROM 18Z-02Z-ISH AS
STRONG MID LEVEL FGEN COMBINES WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TO PRODUCE
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR. EVEN A LOW PROB OF
THUNDERSNOW AS DRY SLOT APPROACHES. GIVEN THERMAL PROFILES ARE
ISOTHERMAL HEAVY WET SNOW MAY RESULT IN A RISK OF DOWN
BRANCHES/SMALL LIMBS...INCREASING THE RISK FOR POWER OUTAGES ACROSS
NORTHWEST MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH. SNOW GROWTH DOES NOT LOOK IDEAL SO
EXPECTING SLR TO RANGE FROM 8-1 TO 12-1.

FARTHER SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN CT-WORCESTER COUNTY OF MA AND INTO
NORTHEAST MA...SNOW MAY MIX WITH SLEET FOR A TIME LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW LATER IN THE
EVENING. THIS MIX OF SLEET WILL REDUCE SNOW TOTALS SOMEWHAT HOWEVER
WILL ADD TO THE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR
EXPECTING A COLD RAIN TO MIX WITH SLEET AND SNOW LATER IN THE DAY
AND EVENING...YIELDING A SLUSHY MINOR ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.
NEVERTHELESS THIS WILL YIELD SLIPPERY TRAVEL ESPECIALLY 21Z-03Z WHEN
PRECIP INTENSITY IS AT ITS GREATEST.

FINALLY FOR SOUTHERN RI AND SOUTHEAST MA...MAINLY A WIND SWEPT RAIN
STORM WITH MINOR POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN FLOODING AS RAINFALL TOTALS OF
UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.

OVERALL...NOT PLANNING ON CHANGING ANY HEADLINES DESPITE LOWERING
SNOWFALL TOTALS. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND SLEET ON THIS BUSY
TRAVEL DAY WITH PRECIP INTENSITY HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING JUSTIFIES THE WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES DESPITE SNOW TOTALS
POSSIBLY FALLING SHORT OF CRITERIA. THUS HEADLINES WILL BE MAINLY
BASED ON IMPACTS. AS FOR SNOWFALL TOTALS...BASICALLY BLENDED THE
WARMER 00Z MODEL SOLUTION WITH PREVIOUS SNOWFALL FORECAST WHICH
RESULTED IN LOWER SNOW TOTALS AND AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL FARTHER
INLAND. HOWEVER IF 12Z GUIDANCE TRENDS CLOSER TO THE COAST DAY SHIFT
WILL LIKELY HAVE TO LOWER AMOUNTS AND SHIFT AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW
FARTHER INLAND.

ONSET...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON PRECIP COMING ONSHORE TO THE SOUTH
COAST 6 AM TO 8 AM AND THEN RAPIDLY OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF
CT/RI AND MA RAPIDLY SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST 8 AM TO NOON.

PRECIP INTENSITY...HEAVIEST 1 PM TO 8 PM FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST.

WINDS...

A STRONG LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST JET WILL MOVE ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST
MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS AROUND 00Z. MODELS PROJECTING
50 TO 65 KT JET AT 925 MB. GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST. THIS COUPLED WITH
STRONG PRES FALLS AND RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WATERS PROVIDING A WELL
MIXED BLYR WILL YIELD A MODERATE RISK OF 50 MPH WIND GUSTS FROM
SOUTH COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY/CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. GIVEN TRACK
OF LOW IS FARTHER NW STRONG WIND FIELD NOW MOVES ACROSS COASTAL RI
AND SOUTHEAST MA. THUS WILL EXPAND WIND ADVISORY TO THIS AREA. WINDS
MAY DECREASE OVER THE ISLANDS FOR A TIME THIS EVENING AS LOW MAKES
IT CLOSEST APPROACH...SOMEWHERE NEAR NANTUCKET. TIMING OF STRONGEST
WINDS APPEAR 4 PM WED TIL 1 AM THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN FLATTENING
OUT THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...WITH
SURFACE WEATHER SYSTEMS TENDING TO MOVE QUICKLY ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER STATES THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THIS TIMEFRAME.
HAVE NOTED TIMING DIFFERENCES WORKING IN ESPECIALLY ON THE 00Z OP
RUN OF THE ECMWF EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT TRIES TO DIG AN H5 SHORT
WAVE/CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE THE GFS
KEEPS THIS SYSTEM WEAK AND FLAT. OVERALL...WITH THE GENERAL W-NW
WIND FLOW...A COUPLE OF FRONTS WILL PASS WITH LITTLE FANFARE
THOUGH WILL BRING SHOTS OF COLDER AIR.

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE MAINTAINED PRETTY GOOD CONTINUITY EARLY
IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD...THEN LOWERS AS TIMING ISSUES COME INTO
PLAY EARLY NEXT WEEK. USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND THEN LEANED TOWARD THE MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THIS
FORECAST.

DETAILS...

THANKSGIVING DAY...H5 LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH A CUTOFF LOW IN THIS FLOW. AMPLE LOW
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO WILL SEE LINGERING
CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS. GOOD SHOT OF
COLD AIR ADVECTION WORKING IN. DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. H85 TEMPS FALL BACK TO -5C TO -10C
THU NIGHT SO TEMPS WILL TUMBLE...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS
AND 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...THOUGH WILL HOLD IN THE 30 TO 35
DEGREE RANGE ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. WET ROADWAYS AND
SIDEWALKS WILL FREEZE UP AS TEMPS FALL THU NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON
UNTREATED SURFACES.

FRIDAY...SHORT WAVE CLEARS THE COAST DURING THE MORNING WITH ANY
CLOUDS TENDING TO DISSIPATE AND PUSH OFFSHORE. CORE OF COLDER AIR
WORKS IN ON GENERALLY LIGHT NW WINDS. HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE
30S...RUNNING AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. HIGH PRES
APPROACHES FROM THE W FRI NIGHT. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO DROP AGAIN TO THE TEENS TO MID
20S...EXCEPT LOWER 30S ON THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...HIGH PRES CRESTS ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD
DURING SAT THEN SETTLES E OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY. RESIDUAL COLD
AIR IN PLACE ON SAT WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S...THOUGH WILL
RISE TO THE MID 40S ALONG THE S COAST. A WEAK WARM FRONT MAY BRING
ISOLD SHOWERS TO THE REGION SAT NIGHT...THEN SW WINDS TAKE OVER
FOR SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS FROM 45-50 ACROSS THE INTERIOR...RANGING
TO THE MID 50S ALONG THE S COAST WITH GUSTY SW WINDS. SOME CLOUDS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP WITH APPROACHING FRONT POSSIBLE SUN
NIGHT...THOUGH TIMING IN QUESTION.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SOME QUESTION ON TIMING OF NEXT H5 SHORT WAVE
APPROACHING THE REGION...THOUGH WILL TEND TO BE A RATHER DRY
SYSTEM WITH NEARLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW IN PLACE. CONTINUED TO CARRY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MON...AND SOME QUESTION ON PTYPE DEPENDING UPON
TEMP PROFILE AS SYSTEM APPROACHES. FOR NOW...SHOULD SEE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS MON NIGHT/TUE THOUGH LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD
AIR MOVES IN. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH A LOW RISK OF RAIN MOVING
ONSHORE INTO RI AND SOUTHEAST MA TOWARD 12Z. VFR WITH LIGHT NW
WINDS BECOMING NORTH.

AFTER 12Z...PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE REGION 12Z-16Z FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. PRECIP MAINLY RAIN ACROSS MOST OF RI /EXCEPT NORTH-
NORTHWEST AREAS/ AND SOUTHEAST MA. HEAVY SNOW AND LIFR 18Z-00Z
ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM BAF-CEF-FIT-ASH-MHT WITH
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE 18Z-00Z. SNOW MIXES
WITH SLEET SOUTHEAST OF THIS AREA FROM BDL-ORH-LWM. STRONG NE
WINDS UP TO 45 KT LIKELY AFTER 21Z OVER CAPE COD/ISLANDS AND
COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY.

TONIGHT...HEAVY PRECIP LINGERS UNTIL 02Z/03Z ESPECIALLY EASTERN
AREAS INCLUDING MHT. PRECIP TAPERS OFF AFTER 03Z AND ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. STRONG NNE WINDS TIL 06Z
THEN BACKING TO NNW.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING ESPECIALLY PTYPE. HEAVIEST PRECIP 20Z-03Z

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING ESPECIALLY PTYPE. HEAVIEST PRECIP 18Z-00Z.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY
THEN SHOULD IMPROVE THU NIGHT. DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS.

FRIDAY...VFR. NW WINDS GUSTING 15-20 KNOTS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...THOUGH CLOUDS INCREASE LATE SAT/SAT
NIGHT. LOW PROB FOR MVFR CIGS MOVING NORTH OFF THE OCEAN INTO CAPE
COD AND ISLANDS. SW WINDS INCREASE TO 30-40 KT AT 2-3KFT BY
SUNDAY...THOUGH WILL REMAIN LIGHTER AT GROUND LEVEL.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...GALE CENTER TRACKS OVER OR NEAR NANTUCKET EARLY
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF NE GALES WITH A LOW
RISK OF A FEW STORM FORCE GUSTS NEAR SHORE EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS
LIKELY EASE AROUND MIDNIGHT OVER CAPE AND ISLANDS AS LOW CENTER
TRACKS ACROSS THIS AREA. SEAS BUILD RAPIDLY TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
POOR VSBY IN HEAVY RAIN. WINDS BECOME NNW LATER TONIGHT AS THE GALE
CENTER RACES NE TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...WILL SEE NW WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT EARLY...THEN SHOULD
DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEAS UP TO 6-11 FEET OVER OPEN
WATERS...HIGHEST WELL OFFSHORE...BUT WILL SUBSIDE TO 4-7 FT LATE IN
THE DAY AND CONTINUE TO LOWER THU NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
BE NEEDED ON MOST WATERS.

FRIDAY...NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT. SEAS LINGER AT AROUND 5 FT ON
THE OUTER WATERS. SMALL CRAFT MAY NEED TO BE CONTINUES FOR A TIME.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH FRI NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...WINDS BACK TO SW DURING SAT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KT. WILL SEE GUSTS UP TO 25 KT LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. SEAS BUILD TO
AROUND 5 FT DURING SUN. SMALL CRAFTS MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH TIDE OF CONCERN IS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. STRONGEST
WINDS AND PRESSURE FALLS OCCUR DURING LOW TIDE THIS EVENING WITH
WINDS AND SURGE EASING TOWARD HIGH TIDE.  THUS IMPACTS WILL BE
LIMITED WITH VERY MINOR EROSION AND TIDAL FLOODING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ002>006-
     008>012-026.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MAZ019>024.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ007-
     013>016.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NHZ011-012-
     015.
RI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR RIZ005>008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR RIZ001>003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NOCERA



000
FXUS61 KBOX 260924
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
424 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM WILL TRACK NEAR OR OVER NANTUCKET THIS
EVENING...THEN QUICKLY MOVING OUT TO SEA OVERNIGHT. THIS STORM
WILL BRING A VARIOUS WEATHER IMPACTS TO THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH HEAVY SNOW WELL INLAND...HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS
ALONG THE COAST. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FOR THANKSGIVING
DAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND SHIFTS
OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...

00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF PRECIP...COMING
ONSHORE TO THE SOUTH COAST 6 AM TO 8 AM. THUS MOST OF THE MORNING
COMMUTE WILL REMAIN DRY. COOLER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING ON LIGHT NNW FLOW. DEW PTS DOWN INTO THE MU20S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

*** WINTER STORM TRENDING CLOSER TO COAST RESULTING IN A RAIN/SNOW
 LINE FARTHER INLAND ***

IMPACTS...

* HEAVY SNOW WESTERN AND CENTRAL MA INTO SOUTHERN NH
* STRONG WINDS SOUTHEAST MA AND SOUTHERN RI
* HEAVY RAIN AND MINOR POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN FLOODING MUCH OF RI AND
  SOUTHEAST MA

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH THE SURFACE
LOW PASSING OVER OR NEAR NANTUCKET. THIS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST MAY
BE THE RESULT OF WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT UPSTREAM CONVECTION FROM
OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS FL TO WEST OF
CUBA. THIS CONVECTION MAY HAVE YIELDED A STRONGER DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLC RESULTING IN A STORM TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST.

REGARDING MODEL SOLUTIONS ECMWF AND GFS ARE FARTHEST NORTHWEST AND
WARMEST. NAM CONSIDERABLY COOLER. FOR EXAMPLE THE NAM BUFKIT AT ORH
OFFERS AN ALL SNOW EVENT WITH 9-12 INCHES. MEANWHILE THE GFS BUFKIT
HAS MID LEVEL WARM INTRUSION WITH SNOW MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO
SLEET THEN BACK TO SNOW...BUT RESULTING IN ONLY 5 OR 6 INCHES. MORE
OF THE SAME AT BDL. PATTERN RECOGNITION SUGGEST AXIS OF HEAVIEST
SNOW SHOULD BE ALONG AND JUST NORTHWEST OF H7 LOW TRACK...WHICH
MODELS AGREE WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH.

PTYPE AND SNOWFALL...

GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON TRACK OF H7 LOW FAIRLY CONFIDENT ON
AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM BAF-CEF-FIT-
ASH-MHT. A SWATH OF 6-12 INCHES IS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS AREA. SNOW
WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY AT TIMES ACROSS THIS REGION FROM 18Z-02Z-ISH AS
STRONG MID LEVEL FGEN COMBINES WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TO PRODUCE
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR. EVEN A LOW PROB OF
THUNDERSNOW AS DRY SLOT APPROACHES. GIVEN THERMAL PROFILES ARE
ISOTHERMAL HEAVY WET SNOW MAY RESULT IN A RISK OF DOWN
BRANCHES/SMALL LIMBS...INCREASING THE RISK FOR POWER OUTAGES ACROSS
NORTHWEST MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH. SNOW GROWTH DOES NOT LOOK IDEAL SO
EXPECTING SLR TO RANGE FROM 8-1 TO 12-1.

FARTHER SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN CT-WORCESTER COUNTY OF MA AND INTO
NORTHEAST MA...SNOW MAY MIX WITH SLEET FOR A TIME LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW LATER IN THE
EVENING. THIS MIX OF SLEET WILL REDUCE SNOW TOTALS SOMEWHAT HOWEVER
WILL ADD TO THE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR
EXPECTING A COLD RAIN TO MIX WITH SLEET AND SNOW LATER IN THE DAY
AND EVENING...YIELDING A SLUSHY MINOR ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.
NEVERTHELESS THIS WILL YIELD SLIPPERY TRAVEL ESPECIALLY 21Z-03Z WHEN
PRECIP INTENSITY IS AT ITS GREATEST.

FINALLY FOR SOUTHERN RI AND SOUTHEAST MA...MAINLY A WIND SWEPT RAIN
STORM WITH MINOR POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN FLOODING AS RAINFALL TOTALS OF
UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.

OVERALL...NOT PLANNING ON CHANGING ANY HEADLINES DESPITE LOWERING
SNOWFALL TOTALS. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND SLEET ON THIS BUSY
TRAVEL DAY WITH PRECIP INTENSITY HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING JUSTIFIES THE WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES DESPITE SNOW TOTALS
POSSIBLY FALLING SHORT OF CRITERIA. THUS HEADLINES WILL BE MAINLY
BASED ON IMPACTS. AS FOR SNOWFALL TOTALS...BASICALLY BLENDED THE
WARMER 00Z MODEL SOLUTION WITH PREVIOUS SNOWFALL FORECAST WHICH
RESULTED IN LOWER SNOW TOTALS AND AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL FARTHER
INLAND. HOWEVER IF 12Z GUIDANCE TRENDS CLOSER TO THE COAST DAY SHIFT
WILL LIKELY HAVE TO LOWER AMOUNTS AND SHIFT AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW
FARTHER INLAND.

ONSET...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON PRECIP COMING ONSHORE TO THE SOUTH
COAST 6 AM TO 8 AM AND THEN RAPIDLY OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF
CT/RI AND MA RAPIDLY SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST 8 AM TO NOON.

PRECIP INTENSITY...HEAVIEST 1 PM TO 8 PM FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST.

WINDS...

A STRONG LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST JET WILL MOVE ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST
MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS AROUND 00Z. MODELS PROJECTING
50 TO 65 KT JET AT 925 MB. GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST. THIS COUPLED WITH
STRONG PRES FALLS AND RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WATERS PROVIDING A WELL
MIXED BLYR WILL YIELD A MODERATE RISK OF 50 MPH WIND GUSTS FROM
SOUTH COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY/CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. GIVEN TRACK
OF LOW IS FARTHER NW STRONG WIND FIELD NOW MOVES ACROSS COASTAL RI
AND SOUTHEAST MA. THUS WILL EXPAND WIND ADVISORY TO THIS AREA. WINDS
MAY DECREASE OVER THE ISLANDS FOR A TIME THIS EVENING AS LOW MAKES
IT CLOSEST APPROACH...SOMEWHERE NEAR NANTUCKET. TIMING OF STRONGEST
WINDS APPEAR 4 PM WED TIL 1 AM THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES UP THE COAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY. NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY. THE FLOW THEN TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON 500 MB HEIGHTS THROUGH
MONDAY AND THEN SMALL DIVERGENCE TUESDAY. THE GFS IS FASTER/FARTHER
EAST WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSING CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND. BUT THE
MODELS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IN NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MAINTAINS AT LEAST MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DIMINISHING CONFIDENCE BY
NEXT TUESDAY/DAY SEVEN.

THE DAILIES...

THANKSGIVING DAY... SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH TRAILS THE
WEDNESDAY STORM...AND MOVES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
DAY. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A DEEP SUPPLY
OF HIGH-RH AIR AND SOME WEAK LIFT AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.  WE WILL EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDS AS WELL AS A CHANCE OF PCPN.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS INLAND AND
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS IN RI/SOUTHEAST MASS. TEMPERATURE PROFILES
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S...EXCEPT LOWER 40S CAPE AND ISLANDS.

WE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE
20S EXCEPT LOWER 30S CAPE AND ISLANDS. ANY WET SURFACES FROM THE
DAYTIME WILL REFREEZE IN MOST LOCATIONS RESULTING IN TRICKY POST-
MEAL TRAVEL ON ANY UNTREATED SURFACES.

FRIDAY... NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE RACES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND IN THE
MORNING WITH LINGERING AIRMASS MOISTURE BUT WEAK LIFT IF ANY. THIS
COULD HOLD THE CLOUDS IN A LITTLE LONGER FRIDAY MORNING.  BUT IT
MOVES OUT QUICKLY AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SO THE TREND
WILL BE FOR CLEARING SKIES.  MIXING DEPTH WITH THE SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED TO BE RATHER SHALLOW...AROUND 950 MB OR MAYBE A LITTLE
HIGHER.  THIS WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S AND WINDS GUSTING TO
15-20 KNOTS.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
INITIALLY FALL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. BUT MOISTURE
FIELDS SUGGEST SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY LOW
CLOUDS MOVING UP FROM THE OCEAN TOWARD CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
FORECAST TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH 14-23 EXCEPT 24-30
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
WARM FRONT SWEEPS NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OFFSHORE. THE COMBINATION SUGGESTS A WARMING TREND OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH A 12C INCREASED IN TEMPS ALOFT BETWEEN SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE WARM FRONT WILL BRING VARIABLE SKY COVER...AS NOTED BY
RH FIELDS ALOFT IN THE MODELS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 925 MB INCREASE
TO 30 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND 30-40 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. EXPECT SOME GUSTINESS TO OUR SURFACE WINDS EACH DAY. BUT
LOW-LEVEL MIXING WILL BE LESS THAN IDEAL EACH DAY WITH BETTER
MIXING SATURDAY AND LESS SUNDAY.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE IN THE ZONAL FLOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND EITHER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. TIMING OF
THE SHORTWAVE IN A ZONAL FLOW THIS FAR OUT IS IN QUESTION BUT THAT/S
OUR BEST SHOT AT THIS TIME. LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT TOGETHER WITH
FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS FROM A 125 KNOT JET...SO WE HAVE CHANCE POPS
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.  HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS DRY WEATHER FOR
THE REST OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH A LOW RISK OF RAIN MOVING
ONSHORE INTO RI AND SOUTHEAST MA TOWARD 12Z. VFR WITH LIGHT NW
WINDS BECOMING NORTH.

AFTER 12Z...PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE REGION 12Z-16Z FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. PRECIP MAINLY RAIN ACROSS MOST OF RI /EXCEPT NORTH-
NORTHWEST AREAS/ AND SOUTHEAST MA. HEAVY SNOW AND LIFR 18Z-00Z
ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM BAF-CEF-FIT-ASH-MHT WITH
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE 18Z-00Z. SNOW MIXES
WITH SLEET SOUTHEAST OF THIS AREA FROM BDL-ORH-LWM. STRONG NE
WINDS UP TO 45 KT LIKELY AFTER 21Z OVER CAPE COD/ISLANDS AND
COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY.

TONIGHT...HEAVY PRECIP LINGERS UNTIL 02Z/03Z ESPECIALLY EASTERN
AREAS INCLUDING MHT. PRECIP TAPERS OFF AFTER 03Z AND ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. STRONG NNE WINDS TIL 06Z
THEN BACKING TO NNW.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING ESPECIALLY PTYPE. HEAVIEST PRECIP 20Z-03Z

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING ESPECIALLY PTYPE. HEAVIEST PRECIP 18Z-00Z.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

THURSDAY...MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. DIMINISHING
NORTHWEST WINDS.

FRIDAY...VFR WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 15-20 KNOTS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...INCREASING SKY COVER BUT MAINLY VFR. LOW POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR CIGS MOVING NORTH OFF THE OCEAN INTO CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.
INCREASING WINDS AT 2000 FEET...REACHING SOUTHWEST 35-40
KNOTS...WITH LIGHTER SOUTHWEST WINDS AT SURFACE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...GALE CENTER TRACKS OVER OR NEAR NANTUCKET EARLY
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF NE GALES WITH A LOW
RISK OF A FEW STORM FORCE GUSTS NEAR SHORE EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS
LIKELY EASE AROUND MIDNIGHT OVER CAPE AND ISLANDS AS LOW CENTER
TRACKS ACROSS THIS AREA. SEAS BUILD RAPIDLY TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
POOR VSBY IN HEAVY RAIN. WINDS BECOME NNW LATER TONIGHT AS THE GALE
CENTER RACES NE TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY... NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS IN THE MORNING BUT
DIMINISHING. SEAS START THE DAY 5 TO 11 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS
AND SUBSIDE TO 5 TO 6 FEET BY THE END OF THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED ON MOST WATERS.

FRIDAY... LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL GUST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ON
SOME OF THE WATERS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY... SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.  A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH TIDE OF CONCERN IS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. STRONGEST
WINDS AND PRESSURE FALLS OCCUR DURING LOW TIDE THIS EVENING WITH
WINDS AND SURGE EASING TOWARD HIGH TIDE.  THUS IMPACTS WILL BE
LIMITED WITH VERY MINOR EROSION AND TIDAL FLOODING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ002>006-
     008>012-026.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MAZ019>024.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ007-
     013>016.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NHZ011-012-
     015.
RI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR RIZ005>008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR RIZ001>003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/NOCERA
MARINE...WTB/NOCERA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NOCERA



000
FXUS61 KBOX 260924
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
424 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM WILL TRACK NEAR OR OVER NANTUCKET THIS
EVENING...THEN QUICKLY MOVING OUT TO SEA OVERNIGHT. THIS STORM
WILL BRING A VARIOUS WEATHER IMPACTS TO THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH HEAVY SNOW WELL INLAND...HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS
ALONG THE COAST. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FOR THANKSGIVING
DAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND SHIFTS
OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...

00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF PRECIP...COMING
ONSHORE TO THE SOUTH COAST 6 AM TO 8 AM. THUS MOST OF THE MORNING
COMMUTE WILL REMAIN DRY. COOLER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING ON LIGHT NNW FLOW. DEW PTS DOWN INTO THE MU20S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

*** WINTER STORM TRENDING CLOSER TO COAST RESULTING IN A RAIN/SNOW
 LINE FARTHER INLAND ***

IMPACTS...

* HEAVY SNOW WESTERN AND CENTRAL MA INTO SOUTHERN NH
* STRONG WINDS SOUTHEAST MA AND SOUTHERN RI
* HEAVY RAIN AND MINOR POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN FLOODING MUCH OF RI AND
  SOUTHEAST MA

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH THE SURFACE
LOW PASSING OVER OR NEAR NANTUCKET. THIS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST MAY
BE THE RESULT OF WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT UPSTREAM CONVECTION FROM
OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS FL TO WEST OF
CUBA. THIS CONVECTION MAY HAVE YIELDED A STRONGER DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLC RESULTING IN A STORM TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST.

REGARDING MODEL SOLUTIONS ECMWF AND GFS ARE FARTHEST NORTHWEST AND
WARMEST. NAM CONSIDERABLY COOLER. FOR EXAMPLE THE NAM BUFKIT AT ORH
OFFERS AN ALL SNOW EVENT WITH 9-12 INCHES. MEANWHILE THE GFS BUFKIT
HAS MID LEVEL WARM INTRUSION WITH SNOW MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO
SLEET THEN BACK TO SNOW...BUT RESULTING IN ONLY 5 OR 6 INCHES. MORE
OF THE SAME AT BDL. PATTERN RECOGNITION SUGGEST AXIS OF HEAVIEST
SNOW SHOULD BE ALONG AND JUST NORTHWEST OF H7 LOW TRACK...WHICH
MODELS AGREE WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH.

PTYPE AND SNOWFALL...

GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON TRACK OF H7 LOW FAIRLY CONFIDENT ON
AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM BAF-CEF-FIT-
ASH-MHT. A SWATH OF 6-12 INCHES IS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS AREA. SNOW
WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY AT TIMES ACROSS THIS REGION FROM 18Z-02Z-ISH AS
STRONG MID LEVEL FGEN COMBINES WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TO PRODUCE
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR. EVEN A LOW PROB OF
THUNDERSNOW AS DRY SLOT APPROACHES. GIVEN THERMAL PROFILES ARE
ISOTHERMAL HEAVY WET SNOW MAY RESULT IN A RISK OF DOWN
BRANCHES/SMALL LIMBS...INCREASING THE RISK FOR POWER OUTAGES ACROSS
NORTHWEST MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH. SNOW GROWTH DOES NOT LOOK IDEAL SO
EXPECTING SLR TO RANGE FROM 8-1 TO 12-1.

FARTHER SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN CT-WORCESTER COUNTY OF MA AND INTO
NORTHEAST MA...SNOW MAY MIX WITH SLEET FOR A TIME LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW LATER IN THE
EVENING. THIS MIX OF SLEET WILL REDUCE SNOW TOTALS SOMEWHAT HOWEVER
WILL ADD TO THE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR
EXPECTING A COLD RAIN TO MIX WITH SLEET AND SNOW LATER IN THE DAY
AND EVENING...YIELDING A SLUSHY MINOR ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.
NEVERTHELESS THIS WILL YIELD SLIPPERY TRAVEL ESPECIALLY 21Z-03Z WHEN
PRECIP INTENSITY IS AT ITS GREATEST.

FINALLY FOR SOUTHERN RI AND SOUTHEAST MA...MAINLY A WIND SWEPT RAIN
STORM WITH MINOR POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN FLOODING AS RAINFALL TOTALS OF
UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.

OVERALL...NOT PLANNING ON CHANGING ANY HEADLINES DESPITE LOWERING
SNOWFALL TOTALS. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND SLEET ON THIS BUSY
TRAVEL DAY WITH PRECIP INTENSITY HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING JUSTIFIES THE WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES DESPITE SNOW TOTALS
POSSIBLY FALLING SHORT OF CRITERIA. THUS HEADLINES WILL BE MAINLY
BASED ON IMPACTS. AS FOR SNOWFALL TOTALS...BASICALLY BLENDED THE
WARMER 00Z MODEL SOLUTION WITH PREVIOUS SNOWFALL FORECAST WHICH
RESULTED IN LOWER SNOW TOTALS AND AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL FARTHER
INLAND. HOWEVER IF 12Z GUIDANCE TRENDS CLOSER TO THE COAST DAY SHIFT
WILL LIKELY HAVE TO LOWER AMOUNTS AND SHIFT AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW
FARTHER INLAND.

ONSET...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON PRECIP COMING ONSHORE TO THE SOUTH
COAST 6 AM TO 8 AM AND THEN RAPIDLY OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF
CT/RI AND MA RAPIDLY SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST 8 AM TO NOON.

PRECIP INTENSITY...HEAVIEST 1 PM TO 8 PM FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST.

WINDS...

A STRONG LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST JET WILL MOVE ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST
MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS AROUND 00Z. MODELS PROJECTING
50 TO 65 KT JET AT 925 MB. GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST. THIS COUPLED WITH
STRONG PRES FALLS AND RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WATERS PROVIDING A WELL
MIXED BLYR WILL YIELD A MODERATE RISK OF 50 MPH WIND GUSTS FROM
SOUTH COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY/CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. GIVEN TRACK
OF LOW IS FARTHER NW STRONG WIND FIELD NOW MOVES ACROSS COASTAL RI
AND SOUTHEAST MA. THUS WILL EXPAND WIND ADVISORY TO THIS AREA. WINDS
MAY DECREASE OVER THE ISLANDS FOR A TIME THIS EVENING AS LOW MAKES
IT CLOSEST APPROACH...SOMEWHERE NEAR NANTUCKET. TIMING OF STRONGEST
WINDS APPEAR 4 PM WED TIL 1 AM THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES UP THE COAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY. NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY. THE FLOW THEN TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON 500 MB HEIGHTS THROUGH
MONDAY AND THEN SMALL DIVERGENCE TUESDAY. THE GFS IS FASTER/FARTHER
EAST WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSING CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND. BUT THE
MODELS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IN NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MAINTAINS AT LEAST MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DIMINISHING CONFIDENCE BY
NEXT TUESDAY/DAY SEVEN.

THE DAILIES...

THANKSGIVING DAY... SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH TRAILS THE
WEDNESDAY STORM...AND MOVES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
DAY. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A DEEP SUPPLY
OF HIGH-RH AIR AND SOME WEAK LIFT AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.  WE WILL EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDS AS WELL AS A CHANCE OF PCPN.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS INLAND AND
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS IN RI/SOUTHEAST MASS. TEMPERATURE PROFILES
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S...EXCEPT LOWER 40S CAPE AND ISLANDS.

WE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE
20S EXCEPT LOWER 30S CAPE AND ISLANDS. ANY WET SURFACES FROM THE
DAYTIME WILL REFREEZE IN MOST LOCATIONS RESULTING IN TRICKY POST-
MEAL TRAVEL ON ANY UNTREATED SURFACES.

FRIDAY... NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE RACES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND IN THE
MORNING WITH LINGERING AIRMASS MOISTURE BUT WEAK LIFT IF ANY. THIS
COULD HOLD THE CLOUDS IN A LITTLE LONGER FRIDAY MORNING.  BUT IT
MOVES OUT QUICKLY AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SO THE TREND
WILL BE FOR CLEARING SKIES.  MIXING DEPTH WITH THE SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED TO BE RATHER SHALLOW...AROUND 950 MB OR MAYBE A LITTLE
HIGHER.  THIS WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S AND WINDS GUSTING TO
15-20 KNOTS.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
INITIALLY FALL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. BUT MOISTURE
FIELDS SUGGEST SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY LOW
CLOUDS MOVING UP FROM THE OCEAN TOWARD CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
FORECAST TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH 14-23 EXCEPT 24-30
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
WARM FRONT SWEEPS NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OFFSHORE. THE COMBINATION SUGGESTS A WARMING TREND OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH A 12C INCREASED IN TEMPS ALOFT BETWEEN SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE WARM FRONT WILL BRING VARIABLE SKY COVER...AS NOTED BY
RH FIELDS ALOFT IN THE MODELS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 925 MB INCREASE
TO 30 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND 30-40 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. EXPECT SOME GUSTINESS TO OUR SURFACE WINDS EACH DAY. BUT
LOW-LEVEL MIXING WILL BE LESS THAN IDEAL EACH DAY WITH BETTER
MIXING SATURDAY AND LESS SUNDAY.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE IN THE ZONAL FLOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND EITHER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. TIMING OF
THE SHORTWAVE IN A ZONAL FLOW THIS FAR OUT IS IN QUESTION BUT THAT/S
OUR BEST SHOT AT THIS TIME. LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT TOGETHER WITH
FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS FROM A 125 KNOT JET...SO WE HAVE CHANCE POPS
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.  HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS DRY WEATHER FOR
THE REST OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH A LOW RISK OF RAIN MOVING
ONSHORE INTO RI AND SOUTHEAST MA TOWARD 12Z. VFR WITH LIGHT NW
WINDS BECOMING NORTH.

AFTER 12Z...PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE REGION 12Z-16Z FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. PRECIP MAINLY RAIN ACROSS MOST OF RI /EXCEPT NORTH-
NORTHWEST AREAS/ AND SOUTHEAST MA. HEAVY SNOW AND LIFR 18Z-00Z
ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM BAF-CEF-FIT-ASH-MHT WITH
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE 18Z-00Z. SNOW MIXES
WITH SLEET SOUTHEAST OF THIS AREA FROM BDL-ORH-LWM. STRONG NE
WINDS UP TO 45 KT LIKELY AFTER 21Z OVER CAPE COD/ISLANDS AND
COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY.

TONIGHT...HEAVY PRECIP LINGERS UNTIL 02Z/03Z ESPECIALLY EASTERN
AREAS INCLUDING MHT. PRECIP TAPERS OFF AFTER 03Z AND ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. STRONG NNE WINDS TIL 06Z
THEN BACKING TO NNW.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING ESPECIALLY PTYPE. HEAVIEST PRECIP 20Z-03Z

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING ESPECIALLY PTYPE. HEAVIEST PRECIP 18Z-00Z.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

THURSDAY...MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. DIMINISHING
NORTHWEST WINDS.

FRIDAY...VFR WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 15-20 KNOTS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...INCREASING SKY COVER BUT MAINLY VFR. LOW POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR CIGS MOVING NORTH OFF THE OCEAN INTO CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.
INCREASING WINDS AT 2000 FEET...REACHING SOUTHWEST 35-40
KNOTS...WITH LIGHTER SOUTHWEST WINDS AT SURFACE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...GALE CENTER TRACKS OVER OR NEAR NANTUCKET EARLY
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF NE GALES WITH A LOW
RISK OF A FEW STORM FORCE GUSTS NEAR SHORE EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS
LIKELY EASE AROUND MIDNIGHT OVER CAPE AND ISLANDS AS LOW CENTER
TRACKS ACROSS THIS AREA. SEAS BUILD RAPIDLY TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
POOR VSBY IN HEAVY RAIN. WINDS BECOME NNW LATER TONIGHT AS THE GALE
CENTER RACES NE TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY... NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS IN THE MORNING BUT
DIMINISHING. SEAS START THE DAY 5 TO 11 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS
AND SUBSIDE TO 5 TO 6 FEET BY THE END OF THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED ON MOST WATERS.

FRIDAY... LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL GUST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ON
SOME OF THE WATERS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY... SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.  A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH TIDE OF CONCERN IS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. STRONGEST
WINDS AND PRESSURE FALLS OCCUR DURING LOW TIDE THIS EVENING WITH
WINDS AND SURGE EASING TOWARD HIGH TIDE.  THUS IMPACTS WILL BE
LIMITED WITH VERY MINOR EROSION AND TIDAL FLOODING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ002>006-
     008>012-026.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MAZ019>024.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ007-
     013>016.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NHZ011-012-
     015.
RI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR RIZ005>008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR RIZ001>003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/NOCERA
MARINE...WTB/NOCERA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 260712
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
212 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG NOREASTER WILL MOVE CLOSE TO THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THIS WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW...WIND AND COASTAL ISSUES.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FOR THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE OVER THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
OR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...

130 AM UPDATE...

00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THE REGION DRY
THROUGH 10Z/5AM WITH RAIN THEN COMING ONSHORE TO THE SOUTH COAST
BY 6 OR 7 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

*** WINTER STORM TRENDING CLOSER TO COAST RESULTING IN A RAIN/SNOW
 LINE FARTHER INLAND ***

IMPACTS...

* HEAVY SNOW WESTERN AND CENTRAL MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH
* STRONG WINDS SOUTHEAST MA AND SOUTHERN RI
* MINOR BEACH EROSION AND TIDAL FLOODING POSSIBLE DURING THE
  EARLIER THU AM HIGH TIDE

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH THE
SURFACE LOW PASSING OVER OR NEAR NANTUCKET. THIS FARTHER NORTHWEST
TREND MAY BE THE RESULT OF AN ABUNDANCE OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION
FROM OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS FL TO
WEST OF CUBA. THIS CONVECTION MAY HAVE YIELDED A STRONGER DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLC RESULTING IN A STORM TRACK CLOSER TO
THE COAST.

ECMWF AND GFS ARE FARTHEST NORTHWEST AND WARMEST. NAM CONSIDERABLY
COOLER. FOR EXAMPLE THE NAM BUFKIT AT ORH OFFERS AN ALL SNOW EVENT
WITH 9-12 INCHES. MEANWHILE THE GFS BUFKIT HAS MID LEVEL WARM
INTRUSION WITH SNOW MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SLEET THEN BACK TO
SNOW...BUT RESULTING IN ONLY 5 OR 6 INCHES. MORE OF THE SAME AT
BDL. PATTERN RECOGNITION SUGGEST AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD BE
ALONG AND JUST NORTHWEST OF H7 LOW TRACK...WHICH MODELS AGREE WILL
BE ACROSS NORTHWEST MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH.

PTYPE AND SNOWFALL...

GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON TRACK OF H7 LOW FAIRLY CONFIDENT ON
AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
BAF-CEF-FIT-ASH-MHT. A SWATH OF 6-12 INCHES IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THIS AREA. SNOW WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY AT TIMES ACROSS THIS REGION
FROM 18Z-02Z-ISH AS STRONG MID LEVEL FGEN COMBINES WITH SYNOPTIC
SCALE LIFT TO PRODUCE SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR. EVEN
A LOW PROB OF THUNDERSNOW AS DRY SLOT APPROACHES. GIVEN THERMAL
PROFILES ARE ISOTHERMAL HEAVY WET SNOW MAY RESULT IN A RISK OF
DOWN BRANCHES/SMALL LIMBS...INCREASING THE RISK FOR POWER OUTAGES
ACROSS NORTHWEST MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH. GIVEN SNOW GROWTH DOES NOT
LOOK IDEAL EXPECTING SLR TO RANGE FROM 8-1 TO 12-1.

FARTHER SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN CT-WORCESTER COUNTY OF MA AND INTO
NORTHEAST MA...SNOW MAY MIX WITH SLEET FOR A TIME THIS EVENING
BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW LATER IN THE EVENING. THIS MIX OF
SLEET WILL REDUCE SNOW TOTALS SOMEWHAT HOWEVER WILL ADD TO THE
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR
EXPECTING A COLD RAIN TO MIX WITH SLEET AND SNOW LATER IN THE DAY
AND EVENING...YIELDING A SLUSHY ACCUMULATION OF A FEW INCHES
POSSIBLE. NEVERTHELESS THIS WILL YIELD SLIPPERY TRAVEL ESPECIALLY
20Z-02Z WHEN PRECIP INTENSITY IS AT ITS GREATEST.

FINALLY FOR SOUTHERN RI AND SOUTHEAST MA...MAINLY A WIND SWEPT
RAIN STORM WITH MINOR POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN FLOODING POSSIBLE.

OVERALL...NOT PLANNING ON CHANGING ANY HEADLINES DESPITE ANY
SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS TO SNOWFALL. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND
SLEET ON THIS BUSY TRAVEL DAY WITH PRECIP INTENSITY HEAVY AT
TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING JUSTIFIES THE WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES DEPSITE SNOW TOTALS POSSIBLY FALLING SHORT OF
WARNING/ADVISORY CRITERIA.

ONSET...PRECIP OVERSPREADS CT/RI AND MA RAPIDLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST 11Z-16Z WITH ALL AREAS SEEING PRECIP BY MIDDAY.

PRECIP INTENSITY...HEAVIEST 18Z TO 02Z-ISH FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST.

WINDS...

A STRONG LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST JET WILL MOVE ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA
INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS AROUND 00Z. MODELS PROJECTING
50 TO 65 KT JET AT 925 MB. GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST. THIS COUPLED
WITH STRONG PRES FALLS AND RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WATERS PROVIDING
A WELL MIXED BLYR WILL YIELD A MODERATE RISK OF 50 MPH WIND GUSTS
FROM SOUTH COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY/CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. WINDS
MAY DECREASE OVER THE ISLANDS DURING THIS TIME AS LOW MAKES IT
CLOSEST APPROACH. TIMING OF STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR 4 PM WED TIL
1 AM THU.

COASTAL FLOODING...

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET ARE EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY SO THE
DURATION OF ONSHORE WINDS TO BUILD THE SEAS AND SURGE IS LACKING.
IN ADDITION BEST PRESSURE FALLS WILL BE OFFSHORE AS HIGH TIDE
APPROACHES. THUS IMPACTS WILL BE LIMITED WITH VERY MINOR EROSION
AND TIDAL FLOODING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES UP THE COAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY. NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY. THE FLOW THEN TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON 500 MB HEIGHTS THROUGH
MONDAY AND THEN SMALL DIVERGENCE TUESDAY. THE GFS IS FASTER/FARTHER
EAST WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSING CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND. BUT THE
MODELS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IN NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MAINTAINS AT LEAST MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DIMINISHING CONFIDENCE BY
NEXT TUESDAY/DAY SEVEN.

THE DAILIES...

THANKSGIVING DAY... SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH TRAILS THE
WEDNESDAY STORM...AND MOVES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
DAY. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A DEEP SUPPLY
OF HIGH-RH AIR AND SOME WEAK LIFT AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.  WE WILL EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDS AS WELL AS A CHANCE OF PCPN.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS INLAND AND
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS IN RI/SOUTHEAST MASS. TEMPERATURE PROFILES
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S...EXCEPT LOWER 40S CAPE AND ISLANDS.

WE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE
20S EXCEPT LOWER 30S CAPE AND ISLANDS. ANY WET SURFACES FROM THE
DAYTIME WILL REFREEZE IN MOST LOCATIONS RESULTING IN TRICKY POST-
MEAL TRAVEL ON ANY UNTREATED SURFACES.

FRIDAY... NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE RACES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND IN THE
MORNING WITH LINGERING AIRMASS MOISTURE BUT WEAK LIFT IF ANY. THIS
COULD HOLD THE CLOUDS IN A LITTLE LONGER FRIDAY MORNING.  BUT IT
MOVES OUT QUICKLY AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SO THE TREND
WILL BE FOR CLEARING SKIES.  MIXING DEPTH WITH THE SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED TO BE RATHER SHALLOW...AROUND 950 MB OR MAYBE A LITTLE
HIGHER.  THIS WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S AND WINDS GUSTING TO
15-20 KNOTS.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
INITIALLY FALL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. BUT MOISTURE
FIELDS SUGGEST SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY LOW
CLOUDS MOVING UP FROM THE OCEAN TOWARD CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
FORECAST TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH 14-23 EXCEPT 24-30
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
WARM FRONT SWEEPS NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OFFSHORE. THE COMBINATION SUGGESTS A WARMING TREND OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH A 12C INCREASED IN TEMPS ALOFT BETWEEN SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE WARM FRONT WILL BRING VARIABLE SKY COVER...AS NOTED BY
RH FIELDS ALOFT IN THE MODELS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 925 MB INCREASE
TO 30 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND 30-40 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. EXPECT SOME GUSTINESS TO OUR SURFACE WINDS EACH DAY. BUT
LOW-LEVEL MIXING WILL BE LESS THAN IDEAL EACH DAY WITH BETTER
MIXING SATURDAY AND LESS SUNDAY.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE IN THE ZONAL FLOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND EITHER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. TIMING OF
THE SHORTWAVE IN A ZONAL FLOW THIS FAR OUT IS IN QUESTION BUT THAT/S
OUR BEST SHOT AT THIS TIME. LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT TOGETHER WITH
FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS FROM A 125 KNOT JET...SO WE HAVE CHANCE POPS
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.  HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS DRY WEATHER FOR
THE REST OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH A LOW RISK OF RAIN MOVING
ONSHORE INTO RI AND SOUTHEAST MA TOWARD 12Z. VFR WITH LIGHT NW
WINDS BECOMING NORTH.

AFTER 12Z...PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE REGION 12Z-16Z FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. PRECIP MAINLY RAIN ACROSS MOST OF RI /EXCEPT NORTH-
NORTHWEST AREAS/ AND SOUTHEAST MA. HEAVY SNOW AND LIFR 18Z-00Z
ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM BAF-CEF-FIT-ASH-MHT WITH
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE 18Z-00Z. SNOW MIXES
WITH SLEET SOUTHEAST OF THIS AREA FROM BDL-ORH-LWM. STRONG NE
WINDS UP TO 45 KT LIKELY AFTER 21Z OVER CAPE COD/ISLANDS AND
COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY.

TONIGHT...HEAVY PRECIP LINGERS UNTIL 02Z/03Z ESPECIALLY EASTERN
AREAS INCLUDING MHT. PRECIP TAPERS OFF AFTER 03Z AND ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. STRONG NNE WINDS TIL 06Z
THEN BACKING TO NNW.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING ESPECIALLY PTYPE. HEAVIEST PRECIP 20Z-03Z

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING ESPECIALLY PTYPE. HEAVIEST PRECIP 18Z-00Z.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

THURSDAY...MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. DIMINISHING
NORTHWEST WINDS.

FRIDAY...VFR WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 15-20 KNOTS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...INCREASING SKY COVER BUT MAINLY VFR. LOW POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR CIGS MOVING NORTH OFF THE OCEAN INTO CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.
INCREASING WINDS AT 2000 FEET...REACHING SOUTHWEST 35-40
KNOTS...WITH LIGHTER SOUTHWEST WINDS AT SURFACE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OVERNIGHT...WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER AT 15 KT OR LESS.
SEAS REMAIN AT 5-6 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

WED INTO WED NIGHT...

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED TO PASS AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK 00Z THU.
HIGH PROB OF NE GALES WITH A LOW RISK OF STORM FORCE GUSTS 21Z
WED TO 06Z THU. HEAVY RAIN LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT
TIMES. GALE WARNING IS OUT WITH HIGH END GUSTS ANTICIPATE. CANT
RULE OUT A FEW STORM FORCE GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY... NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS IN THE MORNING BUT
DIMINISHING. SEAS START THE DAY 5 TO 11 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS
AND SUBSIDE TO 5 TO 6 FEET BY THE END OF THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED ON MOST WATERS.

FRIDAY... LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL GUST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ON
SOME OF THE WATERS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY... SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.  A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MAZ002>006-008>012-026.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MAZ019-022>024.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MAZ007-013>016.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR RIZ008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR RIZ001>003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/NOCERA
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/NOCERA
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 260712
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
212 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG NOREASTER WILL MOVE CLOSE TO THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THIS WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW...WIND AND COASTAL ISSUES.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FOR THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE OVER THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
OR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...

130 AM UPDATE...

00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THE REGION DRY
THROUGH 10Z/5AM WITH RAIN THEN COMING ONSHORE TO THE SOUTH COAST
BY 6 OR 7 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

*** WINTER STORM TRENDING CLOSER TO COAST RESULTING IN A RAIN/SNOW
 LINE FARTHER INLAND ***

IMPACTS...

* HEAVY SNOW WESTERN AND CENTRAL MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH
* STRONG WINDS SOUTHEAST MA AND SOUTHERN RI
* MINOR BEACH EROSION AND TIDAL FLOODING POSSIBLE DURING THE
  EARLIER THU AM HIGH TIDE

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH THE
SURFACE LOW PASSING OVER OR NEAR NANTUCKET. THIS FARTHER NORTHWEST
TREND MAY BE THE RESULT OF AN ABUNDANCE OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION
FROM OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS FL TO
WEST OF CUBA. THIS CONVECTION MAY HAVE YIELDED A STRONGER DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLC RESULTING IN A STORM TRACK CLOSER TO
THE COAST.

ECMWF AND GFS ARE FARTHEST NORTHWEST AND WARMEST. NAM CONSIDERABLY
COOLER. FOR EXAMPLE THE NAM BUFKIT AT ORH OFFERS AN ALL SNOW EVENT
WITH 9-12 INCHES. MEANWHILE THE GFS BUFKIT HAS MID LEVEL WARM
INTRUSION WITH SNOW MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SLEET THEN BACK TO
SNOW...BUT RESULTING IN ONLY 5 OR 6 INCHES. MORE OF THE SAME AT
BDL. PATTERN RECOGNITION SUGGEST AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD BE
ALONG AND JUST NORTHWEST OF H7 LOW TRACK...WHICH MODELS AGREE WILL
BE ACROSS NORTHWEST MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH.

PTYPE AND SNOWFALL...

GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON TRACK OF H7 LOW FAIRLY CONFIDENT ON
AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
BAF-CEF-FIT-ASH-MHT. A SWATH OF 6-12 INCHES IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THIS AREA. SNOW WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY AT TIMES ACROSS THIS REGION
FROM 18Z-02Z-ISH AS STRONG MID LEVEL FGEN COMBINES WITH SYNOPTIC
SCALE LIFT TO PRODUCE SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR. EVEN
A LOW PROB OF THUNDERSNOW AS DRY SLOT APPROACHES. GIVEN THERMAL
PROFILES ARE ISOTHERMAL HEAVY WET SNOW MAY RESULT IN A RISK OF
DOWN BRANCHES/SMALL LIMBS...INCREASING THE RISK FOR POWER OUTAGES
ACROSS NORTHWEST MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH. GIVEN SNOW GROWTH DOES NOT
LOOK IDEAL EXPECTING SLR TO RANGE FROM 8-1 TO 12-1.

FARTHER SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN CT-WORCESTER COUNTY OF MA AND INTO
NORTHEAST MA...SNOW MAY MIX WITH SLEET FOR A TIME THIS EVENING
BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW LATER IN THE EVENING. THIS MIX OF
SLEET WILL REDUCE SNOW TOTALS SOMEWHAT HOWEVER WILL ADD TO THE
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR
EXPECTING A COLD RAIN TO MIX WITH SLEET AND SNOW LATER IN THE DAY
AND EVENING...YIELDING A SLUSHY ACCUMULATION OF A FEW INCHES
POSSIBLE. NEVERTHELESS THIS WILL YIELD SLIPPERY TRAVEL ESPECIALLY
20Z-02Z WHEN PRECIP INTENSITY IS AT ITS GREATEST.

FINALLY FOR SOUTHERN RI AND SOUTHEAST MA...MAINLY A WIND SWEPT
RAIN STORM WITH MINOR POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN FLOODING POSSIBLE.

OVERALL...NOT PLANNING ON CHANGING ANY HEADLINES DESPITE ANY
SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS TO SNOWFALL. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND
SLEET ON THIS BUSY TRAVEL DAY WITH PRECIP INTENSITY HEAVY AT
TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING JUSTIFIES THE WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES DEPSITE SNOW TOTALS POSSIBLY FALLING SHORT OF
WARNING/ADVISORY CRITERIA.

ONSET...PRECIP OVERSPREADS CT/RI AND MA RAPIDLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST 11Z-16Z WITH ALL AREAS SEEING PRECIP BY MIDDAY.

PRECIP INTENSITY...HEAVIEST 18Z TO 02Z-ISH FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST.

WINDS...

A STRONG LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST JET WILL MOVE ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA
INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS AROUND 00Z. MODELS PROJECTING
50 TO 65 KT JET AT 925 MB. GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST. THIS COUPLED
WITH STRONG PRES FALLS AND RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WATERS PROVIDING
A WELL MIXED BLYR WILL YIELD A MODERATE RISK OF 50 MPH WIND GUSTS
FROM SOUTH COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY/CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. WINDS
MAY DECREASE OVER THE ISLANDS DURING THIS TIME AS LOW MAKES IT
CLOSEST APPROACH. TIMING OF STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR 4 PM WED TIL
1 AM THU.

COASTAL FLOODING...

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET ARE EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY SO THE
DURATION OF ONSHORE WINDS TO BUILD THE SEAS AND SURGE IS LACKING.
IN ADDITION BEST PRESSURE FALLS WILL BE OFFSHORE AS HIGH TIDE
APPROACHES. THUS IMPACTS WILL BE LIMITED WITH VERY MINOR EROSION
AND TIDAL FLOODING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES UP THE COAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY. NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY. THE FLOW THEN TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON 500 MB HEIGHTS THROUGH
MONDAY AND THEN SMALL DIVERGENCE TUESDAY. THE GFS IS FASTER/FARTHER
EAST WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSING CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND. BUT THE
MODELS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IN NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MAINTAINS AT LEAST MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DIMINISHING CONFIDENCE BY
NEXT TUESDAY/DAY SEVEN.

THE DAILIES...

THANKSGIVING DAY... SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH TRAILS THE
WEDNESDAY STORM...AND MOVES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
DAY. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A DEEP SUPPLY
OF HIGH-RH AIR AND SOME WEAK LIFT AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.  WE WILL EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDS AS WELL AS A CHANCE OF PCPN.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS INLAND AND
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS IN RI/SOUTHEAST MASS. TEMPERATURE PROFILES
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S...EXCEPT LOWER 40S CAPE AND ISLANDS.

WE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE
20S EXCEPT LOWER 30S CAPE AND ISLANDS. ANY WET SURFACES FROM THE
DAYTIME WILL REFREEZE IN MOST LOCATIONS RESULTING IN TRICKY POST-
MEAL TRAVEL ON ANY UNTREATED SURFACES.

FRIDAY... NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE RACES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND IN THE
MORNING WITH LINGERING AIRMASS MOISTURE BUT WEAK LIFT IF ANY. THIS
COULD HOLD THE CLOUDS IN A LITTLE LONGER FRIDAY MORNING.  BUT IT
MOVES OUT QUICKLY AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SO THE TREND
WILL BE FOR CLEARING SKIES.  MIXING DEPTH WITH THE SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED TO BE RATHER SHALLOW...AROUND 950 MB OR MAYBE A LITTLE
HIGHER.  THIS WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S AND WINDS GUSTING TO
15-20 KNOTS.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
INITIALLY FALL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. BUT MOISTURE
FIELDS SUGGEST SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY LOW
CLOUDS MOVING UP FROM THE OCEAN TOWARD CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
FORECAST TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH 14-23 EXCEPT 24-30
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
WARM FRONT SWEEPS NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OFFSHORE. THE COMBINATION SUGGESTS A WARMING TREND OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH A 12C INCREASED IN TEMPS ALOFT BETWEEN SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE WARM FRONT WILL BRING VARIABLE SKY COVER...AS NOTED BY
RH FIELDS ALOFT IN THE MODELS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 925 MB INCREASE
TO 30 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND 30-40 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. EXPECT SOME GUSTINESS TO OUR SURFACE WINDS EACH DAY. BUT
LOW-LEVEL MIXING WILL BE LESS THAN IDEAL EACH DAY WITH BETTER
MIXING SATURDAY AND LESS SUNDAY.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE IN THE ZONAL FLOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND EITHER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. TIMING OF
THE SHORTWAVE IN A ZONAL FLOW THIS FAR OUT IS IN QUESTION BUT THAT/S
OUR BEST SHOT AT THIS TIME. LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT TOGETHER WITH
FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS FROM A 125 KNOT JET...SO WE HAVE CHANCE POPS
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.  HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS DRY WEATHER FOR
THE REST OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH A LOW RISK OF RAIN MOVING
ONSHORE INTO RI AND SOUTHEAST MA TOWARD 12Z. VFR WITH LIGHT NW
WINDS BECOMING NORTH.

AFTER 12Z...PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE REGION 12Z-16Z FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. PRECIP MAINLY RAIN ACROSS MOST OF RI /EXCEPT NORTH-
NORTHWEST AREAS/ AND SOUTHEAST MA. HEAVY SNOW AND LIFR 18Z-00Z
ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM BAF-CEF-FIT-ASH-MHT WITH
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE 18Z-00Z. SNOW MIXES
WITH SLEET SOUTHEAST OF THIS AREA FROM BDL-ORH-LWM. STRONG NE
WINDS UP TO 45 KT LIKELY AFTER 21Z OVER CAPE COD/ISLANDS AND
COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY.

TONIGHT...HEAVY PRECIP LINGERS UNTIL 02Z/03Z ESPECIALLY EASTERN
AREAS INCLUDING MHT. PRECIP TAPERS OFF AFTER 03Z AND ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. STRONG NNE WINDS TIL 06Z
THEN BACKING TO NNW.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING ESPECIALLY PTYPE. HEAVIEST PRECIP 20Z-03Z

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING ESPECIALLY PTYPE. HEAVIEST PRECIP 18Z-00Z.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

THURSDAY...MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. DIMINISHING
NORTHWEST WINDS.

FRIDAY...VFR WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 15-20 KNOTS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...INCREASING SKY COVER BUT MAINLY VFR. LOW POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR CIGS MOVING NORTH OFF THE OCEAN INTO CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.
INCREASING WINDS AT 2000 FEET...REACHING SOUTHWEST 35-40
KNOTS...WITH LIGHTER SOUTHWEST WINDS AT SURFACE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OVERNIGHT...WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER AT 15 KT OR LESS.
SEAS REMAIN AT 5-6 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

WED INTO WED NIGHT...

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED TO PASS AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK 00Z THU.
HIGH PROB OF NE GALES WITH A LOW RISK OF STORM FORCE GUSTS 21Z
WED TO 06Z THU. HEAVY RAIN LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT
TIMES. GALE WARNING IS OUT WITH HIGH END GUSTS ANTICIPATE. CANT
RULE OUT A FEW STORM FORCE GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY... NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS IN THE MORNING BUT
DIMINISHING. SEAS START THE DAY 5 TO 11 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS
AND SUBSIDE TO 5 TO 6 FEET BY THE END OF THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED ON MOST WATERS.

FRIDAY... LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL GUST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ON
SOME OF THE WATERS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY... SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.  A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MAZ002>006-008>012-026.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MAZ019-022>024.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MAZ007-013>016.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR RIZ008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR RIZ001>003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/NOCERA
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/NOCERA
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 260429
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1129 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG NOREASTER WILL MOVE CLOSE TO THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THIS WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW...WIND AND COASTAL ISSUES.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FOR THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE OVER THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
OR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 4 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

11 PM UPDATE...
HIGH THIN CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED INLAND TO LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM AT 04Z...WHICH HAS ALLOWED
TEMPS TO FALL BACK TO THE LOWER-MID 30S MAINLY ACROSS N CENTRAL
AND W MA/SW NH...WITH READINGS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS E
MA/RI WITH LIGHT W-NW WINDS. NOTING BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE
S COAST...BUT NOT SEEING ANY PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND LIKELY DUE
TO TEMP/DEWPT SPREADS FROM 7 TO 15 DEGREES ALONG THE S COAST.
ANOTHER BAND OF STEADIER PRECIP WELL S OF THE REGION STREAMING NE.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN REACH THE GROUND
ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET AFTER 1 OR 2 AM ONWARD.

HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO NANTUCKET FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...UPDATED TEMPS/DEWPTS TO BRING CURRENT AND EXTENDED
INTO NEAR TERM TRENDS AS WELL AS CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXPECT A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION TO REMAIN DRY FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT...UNTIL PRECIP WILL BLOSSOM FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
NEAR 09Z.

NOT A LOT OF COOL AIR ALOFT SO OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD AS
CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT DIURNAL RADIATION. LOW OVERNIGHT WILL DROP IN
THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. HOWEVER ONCE PRECIP MOVES INTO THE
REGION...AND DEPENDING ON INTENSITY TEMPS MAY WET BULB AND DROP AT
OR BELOW FREEZING.

HAVE NOTICED THAT THIS SYSTEM IS SPEEDING UP SO THE MORNING COMMUTE
MAY BE IMPACTED FOR CT AND RI TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /4 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

*** EARLY SEASON WINTER STORM TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION WED/WED
  NIGHT ***

IMPACTS...

* HEAVY SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR IMPACTING WED TRAVEL
* GUSTY WINDS ACROSS COASTAL PLYMOUTH CO AND THE ISLANDS
* STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS
* MINOR BEACH EROSION AND SPLASHOVER FOR THE THU AM HIGH TIDE

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THIS HAS ALLOWED A GOOD PLUME OF MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...TAPPING IN TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM BOTH THE GULF AS WELL
AS THE BAHAMAS. FROM THIS SHORTWAVE...A WEAK WAVE WILL DEVELOP AND
GENERATE A SURFACE LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS LOW WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST AND DEVELOP AN EARLY SEASON
NOR`EASTER FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS A VERY QUICK SYSTEM DUE
TO THE LACK OF BLOCKING UPSTREAM. SURFACE LOW IS STILL TRACKING NEAR
THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...WITH H85 CIRCULATION MOVING ACROSS CAPE COD
AND H7 LOW DEVELOPING AND TRACKING OVER BDL-MHT LINE. THIS SYSTEM
WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY WED NIGHT AND PRECIP SHOULD
BE WINDING DOWN BY DAY BREAK THURSDAY.

GUIDANCE...

GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS FOR THE 12Z SUITE. BIGGEST
THING IS THAT THE SYSTEM IS MOVING A FEW HOURS FASTER THEN
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE LARGER-SCALE FEATURES INCLUDING
THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH...DIFFERENCES IN THE
DETAILS REMAIN. APPEARS THAT THERE IS A 700 MB WARM-AIR
INTRUSION/DRY SLOT IMPENDING UP NARRAGANSETT BAY AND UP INTO NORFOLK
CO. NOTED THAT THE NAM/CMC WHERE THE COLDER SOLUTIONS COMPARED TO
THE GFS/EC/SREF AND UKMET WHICH WERE SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THEIR TEMPS
ALOFT. BECAUSE OF THIS GOOD CLUSTERING TRENDED THE FORECAST WITH THE
GFS/EC/WPC IN TERMS OF THICKNESS AND QPF.

PTYPE AND SNOWFALL...

TRICKIEST PART OF THE FORECAST WAS DETERMINING SNOWFALL ACCUMS AND P-
TYPES. BIGGEST REASON IS THE 700 MB WARM LAYER MOVING INTO THE
REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR
NORTHWARD THIS WARM LAYER MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COULD PLAY
ISSUES ON THE TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS. RIGHT NOW APPEARS THAT THIS WARM
LAYER WILL MOVE INTO WELL INTO RI AND NORFOLK CO AND POINTS SOUTH
AND EAST KEEPING BOSTON RIGHT ON THE FRINGE OF SUB-ZERO THERMAL
PROFILE. AND WITH 925 MB TEMPS BELOW 0C WEST OF THE CANAL BELIEVE
SLEET/WINTRY MIX WILL BE INTRODUCED. HOWEVER THE 18Z NAM CAME IN A
LOT WARMER AT THE 700MB LEVEL...IF THIS TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE THIS SNOW TOTALS WILL BE TO HIGH. LASTLY A
COASTAL FRONT WILL ALSO SET UP SOMEWHERE ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR WHERE IT DECIDES TO DEVELOP.

AT THE ONSET...BECAUSE OF BOUNDARY LAYER TEMP ISSUES BELIEVE RAIN
WILL START OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...NEAR DAY BREAK. AS PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE
REGION AND THERMAL FIELDS ALOFT TIGHTEN...EXPECT A GOOD BANDING
SIGNATURE TO DEVELOP...NEAR BDL TO ORH TO BED AT AROUND 15/18Z.
PRECIP INTENSITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BAND SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW ALONG WITH SNOW RATES OF 1-2" PER HOUR.
DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS BELIEVE THAT A COASTAL FRONT WILL SET
UP AND KEEP MOST OF THE COASTAL REGION IN RAIN RATHER THAN SNOW.
HOWEVER AS THE SURFACE WINDS BACK TO A NNE DIRECTION AS WELL EXPECT
MORE LOW LEVEL COOLING WHICH WILL KEEP PRECIP TO ALL SNOW FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE REGION...EXPECT ALONG THE 95 CORRIDOR WHERE A WINTRY
MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/RAIN IS POSSIBLE. THE FRONTAL BAND WILL ALSO
SWITCH TO A MORE NNE ASSOCIATION AS THE THERMAL FIELDS GET BACKED
FROM THE MID-LEVEL WARM AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL PUSH
THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL OVER THE BERKS AND SOUTHERN NH. FINALLY AS THE
STORM EXITS OUT...A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR ALL PRECIP TO
SWITCH TO SNOW AND ALLOW FOR A QUICK COUPLE OF INCHES OF
ACCUMULATIONS.

OVERALL HAVE EXPANDED THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER WARNINGS TO ALL OF
SOUTHERN NH...AND MOST OF MASS MINUS THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND NORTHERN
CT. DECIDED TO GO WITH ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF RI UP TO COASTAL
ESSEX INCLUDING THE CITIES OF PROVIDENCE AND BOSTON. ALTHOUGH
AMOUNTS ARE UNDER ADVISORY FOR THE METRO REGIONS...BECAUSE OF THE
HIGH IMPACT THIS EVENT CAN HAVE ON THE PRE-THANKSGIVING TRAVEL FELT
THE ADVISORY WAS WARRANTED. ALSO WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE
OR IF TEMPS DROP JUST A DEGREE...ACCUMULATIONS COULD ADD UP. FOR NOW
BELIEVE THAT AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE BUT ANOTHER COUPLE
OF INCHES OF SLEET CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

WINDS...

A STRONG LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST JET WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF
RI AND MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS WED AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODELS PROJECTING 45-50 KT JET AT 925 MB. THIS
COUPLED WITH STRONG PRES FALLS AND RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WATERS
PROVIDING A WELL MIXED BLYR WILL YIELD A MODERATE RISK OF 50 MPH
WIND GUSTS FROM SOUTH COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY/CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. TIMING OF STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR 4 PM WED TIL 11 AM THU.
BECAUSE THE JET DYNAMIC DOES NOT SEEM AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS RUNS
HAVE DROPPED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A STRONG WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS
AREA. IF THE COASTAL SYSTEM DOES DEEPEN MORE THEN FORECASTED...AND
THE LLJ DOES STRENGTHEN THEN A HIGH WIND WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

COASTAL FLOODING...

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET ARE EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS VERY QUICK SO THE POTENTIAL FOR A
LONG DURATION EASTERLY FETCH TO BUILD THE SEAS IS LOW. EVEN THE
DURATION OF ONSHORE WINDS ARE SHORT PLUS WITH PRESSURES BEGINNING TO
RISE TOWARD HIGH TIDE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY COASTAL FLOOD ISSUES
INCLUDING EROSION. WORSE CAST...COULD SEE A SURGE NEAR 1.5 FEET
WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME SPLASHOVER AND MINOR BEACH EROSION FOR TYPICAL
PRONE AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES UP THE COAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY. NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY. THE FLOW THEN TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON 500 MB HEIGHTS THROUGH
MONDAY AND THEN SMALL DIVERGENCE TUESDAY. THE GFS IS FASTER/FARTHER
EAST WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSING CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND. BUT THE
MODELS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IN NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MAINTAINS AT LEAST MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DIMINISHING CONFIDENCE BY
NEXT TUESDAY/DAY SEVEN.

THE DAILIES...

THANKSGIVING DAY... SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH TRAILS THE
WEDNESDAY STORM...AND MOVES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
DAY. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A DEEP SUPPLY
OF HIGH-RH AIR AND SOME WEAK LIFT AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.  WE WILL EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDS AS WELL AS A CHANCE OF PCPN.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS INLAND AND
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS IN RI/SOUTHEAST MASS. TEMPERATURE PROFILES
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S...EXCEPT LOWER 40S CAPE AND ISLANDS.

WE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE
20S EXCEPT LOWER 30S CAPE AND ISLANDS. ANY WET SURFACES FROM THE
DAYTIME WILL REFREEZE IN MOST LOCATIONS RESULTING IN TRICKY POST-
MEAL TRAVEL ON ANY UNTREATED SURFACES.

FRIDAY... NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE RACES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND IN THE
MORNING WITH LINGERING AIRMASS MOISTURE BUT WEAK LIFT IF ANY. THIS
COULD HOLD THE CLOUDS IN A LITTLE LONGER FRIDAY MORNING.  BUT IT
MOVES OUT QUICKLY AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SO THE TREND
WILL BE FOR CLEARING SKIES.  MIXING DEPTH WITH THE SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED TO BE RATHER SHALLOW...AROUND 950 MB OR MAYBE A LITTLE
HIGHER.  THIS WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S AND WINDS GUSTING TO
15-20 KNOTS.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
INITIALLY FALL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. BUT MOISTURE
FIELDS SUGGEST SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY LOW
CLOUDS MOVING UP FROM THE OCEAN TOWARD CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
FORECAST TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH 14-23 EXCEPT 24-30
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
WARM FRONT SWEEPS NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OFFSHORE. THE COMBINATION SUGGESTS A WARMING TREND OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH A 12C INCREASED IN TEMPS ALOFT BETWEEN SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE WARM FRONT WILL BRING VARIABLE SKY COVER...AS NOTED BY
RH FIELDS ALOFT IN THE MODELS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 925 MB INCREASE
TO 30 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND 30-40 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. EXPECT SOME GUSTINESS TO OUR SURFACE WINDS EACH DAY. BUT
LOW-LEVEL MIXING WILL BE LESS THAN IDEAL EACH DAY WITH BETTER
MIXING SATURDAY AND LESS SUNDAY.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE IN THE ZONAL FLOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND EITHER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. TIMING OF
THE SHORTWAVE IN A ZONAL FLOW THIS FAR OUT IS IN QUESTION BUT THAT/S
OUR BEST SHOT AT THIS TIME. LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT TOGETHER WITH
FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS FROM A 125 KNOT JET...SO WE HAVE CHANCE POPS
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.  HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS DRY WEATHER FOR
THE REST OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS UP TO 09Z THEN CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO DETERIORATE FROM VFR TO IFR.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...COASTAL STORM ANTICIPATED.
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION SNOWS OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS IMMEDIATELY
W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. +SN POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY BDL-ORH AND
POSSIBLY FOR A TIME AT BOS AROUND 18Z THU. STRONG NE WINDS UP TO
45 KT AT HYA AND ACK AROUND 00Z THU.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

THURSDAY...MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. DIMINISHING
NORTHWEST WINDS.

FRIDAY...VFR WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 15-20 KNOTS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...INCREASING SKY COVER BUT MAINLY VFR. LOW POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR CIGS MOVING NORTH OFF THE OCEAN INTO CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.
INCREASING WINDS AT 2000 FEET...REACHING SOUTHWEST 35-40
KNOTS...WITH LIGHTER SOUTHWEST WINDS AT SURFACE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OVERNIGHT...WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER AT 15 KT OR LESS.
SEAS REMAIN AT 5-6 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

WED INTO WED NIGHT...

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED TO PASS AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK 00Z THU.
HIGH PROB OF NE GALES WITH A LOW RISK OF STORM FORCE GUSTS 21Z
WED TO 06Z THU. HEAVY RAIN LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT
TIMES. GALE WARNING IS OUT WITH HIGH END GUSTS ANTICIPATE. CANT
RULE OUT A FEW STORM FORCE GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY... NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS IN THE MORNING BUT
DIMINISHING. SEAS START THE DAY 5 TO 11 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS
AND SUBSIDE TO 5 TO 6 FEET BY THE END OF THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED ON MOST WATERS.

FRIDAY... LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL GUST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ON
SOME OF THE WATERS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY... SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.  A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MAZ002>006-008>012-026.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     MAZ019-022>024.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MAZ007-013>016.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     RIZ008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR RIZ001>003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 260429
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1129 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG NOREASTER WILL MOVE CLOSE TO THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THIS WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW...WIND AND COASTAL ISSUES.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FOR THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE OVER THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
OR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 4 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

11 PM UPDATE...
HIGH THIN CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED INLAND TO LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM AT 04Z...WHICH HAS ALLOWED
TEMPS TO FALL BACK TO THE LOWER-MID 30S MAINLY ACROSS N CENTRAL
AND W MA/SW NH...WITH READINGS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS E
MA/RI WITH LIGHT W-NW WINDS. NOTING BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE
S COAST...BUT NOT SEEING ANY PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND LIKELY DUE
TO TEMP/DEWPT SPREADS FROM 7 TO 15 DEGREES ALONG THE S COAST.
ANOTHER BAND OF STEADIER PRECIP WELL S OF THE REGION STREAMING NE.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN REACH THE GROUND
ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET AFTER 1 OR 2 AM ONWARD.

HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO NANTUCKET FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...UPDATED TEMPS/DEWPTS TO BRING CURRENT AND EXTENDED
INTO NEAR TERM TRENDS AS WELL AS CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXPECT A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION TO REMAIN DRY FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT...UNTIL PRECIP WILL BLOSSOM FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
NEAR 09Z.

NOT A LOT OF COOL AIR ALOFT SO OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD AS
CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT DIURNAL RADIATION. LOW OVERNIGHT WILL DROP IN
THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. HOWEVER ONCE PRECIP MOVES INTO THE
REGION...AND DEPENDING ON INTENSITY TEMPS MAY WET BULB AND DROP AT
OR BELOW FREEZING.

HAVE NOTICED THAT THIS SYSTEM IS SPEEDING UP SO THE MORNING COMMUTE
MAY BE IMPACTED FOR CT AND RI TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /4 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

*** EARLY SEASON WINTER STORM TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION WED/WED
  NIGHT ***

IMPACTS...

* HEAVY SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR IMPACTING WED TRAVEL
* GUSTY WINDS ACROSS COASTAL PLYMOUTH CO AND THE ISLANDS
* STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS
* MINOR BEACH EROSION AND SPLASHOVER FOR THE THU AM HIGH TIDE

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THIS HAS ALLOWED A GOOD PLUME OF MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...TAPPING IN TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM BOTH THE GULF AS WELL
AS THE BAHAMAS. FROM THIS SHORTWAVE...A WEAK WAVE WILL DEVELOP AND
GENERATE A SURFACE LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS LOW WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST AND DEVELOP AN EARLY SEASON
NOR`EASTER FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS A VERY QUICK SYSTEM DUE
TO THE LACK OF BLOCKING UPSTREAM. SURFACE LOW IS STILL TRACKING NEAR
THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...WITH H85 CIRCULATION MOVING ACROSS CAPE COD
AND H7 LOW DEVELOPING AND TRACKING OVER BDL-MHT LINE. THIS SYSTEM
WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY WED NIGHT AND PRECIP SHOULD
BE WINDING DOWN BY DAY BREAK THURSDAY.

GUIDANCE...

GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS FOR THE 12Z SUITE. BIGGEST
THING IS THAT THE SYSTEM IS MOVING A FEW HOURS FASTER THEN
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE LARGER-SCALE FEATURES INCLUDING
THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH...DIFFERENCES IN THE
DETAILS REMAIN. APPEARS THAT THERE IS A 700 MB WARM-AIR
INTRUSION/DRY SLOT IMPENDING UP NARRAGANSETT BAY AND UP INTO NORFOLK
CO. NOTED THAT THE NAM/CMC WHERE THE COLDER SOLUTIONS COMPARED TO
THE GFS/EC/SREF AND UKMET WHICH WERE SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THEIR TEMPS
ALOFT. BECAUSE OF THIS GOOD CLUSTERING TRENDED THE FORECAST WITH THE
GFS/EC/WPC IN TERMS OF THICKNESS AND QPF.

PTYPE AND SNOWFALL...

TRICKIEST PART OF THE FORECAST WAS DETERMINING SNOWFALL ACCUMS AND P-
TYPES. BIGGEST REASON IS THE 700 MB WARM LAYER MOVING INTO THE
REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR
NORTHWARD THIS WARM LAYER MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COULD PLAY
ISSUES ON THE TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS. RIGHT NOW APPEARS THAT THIS WARM
LAYER WILL MOVE INTO WELL INTO RI AND NORFOLK CO AND POINTS SOUTH
AND EAST KEEPING BOSTON RIGHT ON THE FRINGE OF SUB-ZERO THERMAL
PROFILE. AND WITH 925 MB TEMPS BELOW 0C WEST OF THE CANAL BELIEVE
SLEET/WINTRY MIX WILL BE INTRODUCED. HOWEVER THE 18Z NAM CAME IN A
LOT WARMER AT THE 700MB LEVEL...IF THIS TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE THIS SNOW TOTALS WILL BE TO HIGH. LASTLY A
COASTAL FRONT WILL ALSO SET UP SOMEWHERE ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR WHERE IT DECIDES TO DEVELOP.

AT THE ONSET...BECAUSE OF BOUNDARY LAYER TEMP ISSUES BELIEVE RAIN
WILL START OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...NEAR DAY BREAK. AS PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE
REGION AND THERMAL FIELDS ALOFT TIGHTEN...EXPECT A GOOD BANDING
SIGNATURE TO DEVELOP...NEAR BDL TO ORH TO BED AT AROUND 15/18Z.
PRECIP INTENSITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BAND SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW ALONG WITH SNOW RATES OF 1-2" PER HOUR.
DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS BELIEVE THAT A COASTAL FRONT WILL SET
UP AND KEEP MOST OF THE COASTAL REGION IN RAIN RATHER THAN SNOW.
HOWEVER AS THE SURFACE WINDS BACK TO A NNE DIRECTION AS WELL EXPECT
MORE LOW LEVEL COOLING WHICH WILL KEEP PRECIP TO ALL SNOW FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE REGION...EXPECT ALONG THE 95 CORRIDOR WHERE A WINTRY
MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/RAIN IS POSSIBLE. THE FRONTAL BAND WILL ALSO
SWITCH TO A MORE NNE ASSOCIATION AS THE THERMAL FIELDS GET BACKED
FROM THE MID-LEVEL WARM AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL PUSH
THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL OVER THE BERKS AND SOUTHERN NH. FINALLY AS THE
STORM EXITS OUT...A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR ALL PRECIP TO
SWITCH TO SNOW AND ALLOW FOR A QUICK COUPLE OF INCHES OF
ACCUMULATIONS.

OVERALL HAVE EXPANDED THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER WARNINGS TO ALL OF
SOUTHERN NH...AND MOST OF MASS MINUS THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND NORTHERN
CT. DECIDED TO GO WITH ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF RI UP TO COASTAL
ESSEX INCLUDING THE CITIES OF PROVIDENCE AND BOSTON. ALTHOUGH
AMOUNTS ARE UNDER ADVISORY FOR THE METRO REGIONS...BECAUSE OF THE
HIGH IMPACT THIS EVENT CAN HAVE ON THE PRE-THANKSGIVING TRAVEL FELT
THE ADVISORY WAS WARRANTED. ALSO WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE
OR IF TEMPS DROP JUST A DEGREE...ACCUMULATIONS COULD ADD UP. FOR NOW
BELIEVE THAT AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE BUT ANOTHER COUPLE
OF INCHES OF SLEET CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

WINDS...

A STRONG LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST JET WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF
RI AND MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS WED AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODELS PROJECTING 45-50 KT JET AT 925 MB. THIS
COUPLED WITH STRONG PRES FALLS AND RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WATERS
PROVIDING A WELL MIXED BLYR WILL YIELD A MODERATE RISK OF 50 MPH
WIND GUSTS FROM SOUTH COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY/CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. TIMING OF STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR 4 PM WED TIL 11 AM THU.
BECAUSE THE JET DYNAMIC DOES NOT SEEM AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS RUNS
HAVE DROPPED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A STRONG WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS
AREA. IF THE COASTAL SYSTEM DOES DEEPEN MORE THEN FORECASTED...AND
THE LLJ DOES STRENGTHEN THEN A HIGH WIND WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

COASTAL FLOODING...

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET ARE EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS VERY QUICK SO THE POTENTIAL FOR A
LONG DURATION EASTERLY FETCH TO BUILD THE SEAS IS LOW. EVEN THE
DURATION OF ONSHORE WINDS ARE SHORT PLUS WITH PRESSURES BEGINNING TO
RISE TOWARD HIGH TIDE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY COASTAL FLOOD ISSUES
INCLUDING EROSION. WORSE CAST...COULD SEE A SURGE NEAR 1.5 FEET
WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME SPLASHOVER AND MINOR BEACH EROSION FOR TYPICAL
PRONE AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES UP THE COAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY. NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY. THE FLOW THEN TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON 500 MB HEIGHTS THROUGH
MONDAY AND THEN SMALL DIVERGENCE TUESDAY. THE GFS IS FASTER/FARTHER
EAST WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSING CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND. BUT THE
MODELS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IN NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MAINTAINS AT LEAST MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DIMINISHING CONFIDENCE BY
NEXT TUESDAY/DAY SEVEN.

THE DAILIES...

THANKSGIVING DAY... SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH TRAILS THE
WEDNESDAY STORM...AND MOVES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
DAY. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A DEEP SUPPLY
OF HIGH-RH AIR AND SOME WEAK LIFT AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.  WE WILL EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDS AS WELL AS A CHANCE OF PCPN.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS INLAND AND
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS IN RI/SOUTHEAST MASS. TEMPERATURE PROFILES
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S...EXCEPT LOWER 40S CAPE AND ISLANDS.

WE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE
20S EXCEPT LOWER 30S CAPE AND ISLANDS. ANY WET SURFACES FROM THE
DAYTIME WILL REFREEZE IN MOST LOCATIONS RESULTING IN TRICKY POST-
MEAL TRAVEL ON ANY UNTREATED SURFACES.

FRIDAY... NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE RACES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND IN THE
MORNING WITH LINGERING AIRMASS MOISTURE BUT WEAK LIFT IF ANY. THIS
COULD HOLD THE CLOUDS IN A LITTLE LONGER FRIDAY MORNING.  BUT IT
MOVES OUT QUICKLY AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SO THE TREND
WILL BE FOR CLEARING SKIES.  MIXING DEPTH WITH THE SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED TO BE RATHER SHALLOW...AROUND 950 MB OR MAYBE A LITTLE
HIGHER.  THIS WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S AND WINDS GUSTING TO
15-20 KNOTS.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
INITIALLY FALL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. BUT MOISTURE
FIELDS SUGGEST SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY LOW
CLOUDS MOVING UP FROM THE OCEAN TOWARD CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
FORECAST TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH 14-23 EXCEPT 24-30
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
WARM FRONT SWEEPS NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OFFSHORE. THE COMBINATION SUGGESTS A WARMING TREND OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH A 12C INCREASED IN TEMPS ALOFT BETWEEN SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE WARM FRONT WILL BRING VARIABLE SKY COVER...AS NOTED BY
RH FIELDS ALOFT IN THE MODELS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 925 MB INCREASE
TO 30 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND 30-40 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. EXPECT SOME GUSTINESS TO OUR SURFACE WINDS EACH DAY. BUT
LOW-LEVEL MIXING WILL BE LESS THAN IDEAL EACH DAY WITH BETTER
MIXING SATURDAY AND LESS SUNDAY.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE IN THE ZONAL FLOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND EITHER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. TIMING OF
THE SHORTWAVE IN A ZONAL FLOW THIS FAR OUT IS IN QUESTION BUT THAT/S
OUR BEST SHOT AT THIS TIME. LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT TOGETHER WITH
FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS FROM A 125 KNOT JET...SO WE HAVE CHANCE POPS
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.  HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS DRY WEATHER FOR
THE REST OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS UP TO 09Z THEN CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO DETERIORATE FROM VFR TO IFR.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...COASTAL STORM ANTICIPATED.
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION SNOWS OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS IMMEDIATELY
W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. +SN POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY BDL-ORH AND
POSSIBLY FOR A TIME AT BOS AROUND 18Z THU. STRONG NE WINDS UP TO
45 KT AT HYA AND ACK AROUND 00Z THU.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

THURSDAY...MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. DIMINISHING
NORTHWEST WINDS.

FRIDAY...VFR WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 15-20 KNOTS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...INCREASING SKY COVER BUT MAINLY VFR. LOW POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR CIGS MOVING NORTH OFF THE OCEAN INTO CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.
INCREASING WINDS AT 2000 FEET...REACHING SOUTHWEST 35-40
KNOTS...WITH LIGHTER SOUTHWEST WINDS AT SURFACE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OVERNIGHT...WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER AT 15 KT OR LESS.
SEAS REMAIN AT 5-6 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

WED INTO WED NIGHT...

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED TO PASS AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK 00Z THU.
HIGH PROB OF NE GALES WITH A LOW RISK OF STORM FORCE GUSTS 21Z
WED TO 06Z THU. HEAVY RAIN LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT
TIMES. GALE WARNING IS OUT WITH HIGH END GUSTS ANTICIPATE. CANT
RULE OUT A FEW STORM FORCE GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY... NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS IN THE MORNING BUT
DIMINISHING. SEAS START THE DAY 5 TO 11 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS
AND SUBSIDE TO 5 TO 6 FEET BY THE END OF THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED ON MOST WATERS.

FRIDAY... LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL GUST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ON
SOME OF THE WATERS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY... SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.  A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MAZ002>006-008>012-026.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     MAZ019-022>024.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MAZ007-013>016.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     RIZ008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR RIZ001>003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 260028
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
728 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG NOREASTER WILL MOVE CLOSE TO THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THIS WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW...WIND AND COASTAL ISSUES.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FOR THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE OVER THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
OR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 4 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

7 PM UPDATE...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH INLAND DEWPOINTS IN THE
20S. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH INCREASING AND
LOWERING CLOUDS. IN OTHER WORDS...NO CHANGES IN FORECAST
THINKING. JUST A FEW TWEAKS ON GRID DETAILS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS IS DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE THE CAROLINA COAST.
EXPECT A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION TO REMAIN DRY FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT...UNTIL PRECIP WILL BLOSSOM FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
NEAR 09Z.

NOT A LOT OF COOL AIR ALOFT SO OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD AS
CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT DIURNAL RADIATION. LOW OVERNIGHT WILL DROP IN
THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. HOWEVER ONCE PRECIP MOVES INTO THE
REGION...AND DEPENDING ON INTENSITY TEMPS MAY WET BULB AND DROP AT
OR BELOW FREEZING.

HAVE NOTICED THAT THIS SYSTEM IS SPEEDING UP SO THE MORNING COMMUTE
MAY BE IMPACT FOR CT AND RI TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /4 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT...

*** EARLY SEASON WINTER STORM TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION WED/WED
  NIGHT ***

IMPACTS...

* HEAVY SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR IMPACTING WED TRAVEL
* GUSTY WINDS ACROSS COASTAL PLYMOUTH CO AND THE ISLANDS
* STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS
* MINOR BEACH EROSION AND SPLASHOVER FOR THE THURS AM HIGH TIDE

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THIS HAS ALLOWED A GOOD PLUME OF MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...TAPPING IN TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM BOTH THE GULF AS WELL
AS THE BAHAMAS. FROM THIS SHORTWAVE...A WEAK WAVE WILL DEVELOP AND
GENERATE A SURFACE LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS LOW WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST AND DEVELOP AN EARLY SEASON
NOR`EASTER FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS A VERY QUICK SYSTEM DUE
TO THE LACK OF BLOCKING UPSTREAM. SURFACE LOW IS STILL TRACKING NEAR
THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...WITH H85 CIRCULATION MOVING ACROSS CAPE COD
AND H7 LOW DEVELOPING AND TRACKING OVER BDL-MHT LINE. THIS SYSTEM
WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY WED NIGHT AND PRECIP SHOULD
BE WINDING DOWN BY DAY BREAK THURSDAY.

GUIDANCE...

GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS FOR THE 12Z SUITE. BIGGEST
THING IS THAT THE SYSTEM IS MOVING A FEW HOURS FASTER THEN
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE LARGER-SCALE FEATURES INCLUDING
THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH...DIFFERENCES IN THE
DETAILS REMAIN. APPEARS THAT THERE IS A 700 MB WARM-AIR
INTRUSION/DRY SLOT IMPENDING UP NARRAGANSETT BAY AND UP INTO NORFOLK
CO. NOTED THAT THE NAM/CMC WHERE THE COLDER SOLUTIONS COMPARED TO
THE GFS/EC/SREF AND UKMET WHICH WERE SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THEIR TEMPS
ALOFT. BECAUSE OF THIS GOOD CLUSTERING TRENDED THE FORECAST WITH THE
GFS/EC/WPC IN TERMS OF THICKNESS AND QPF.

PTYPE AND SNOWFALL...

TRICKIEST PART OF THE FORECAST WAS DETERMINING SNOWFALL ACCUMS AND P-
TYPES. BIGGEST REASON IS THE 700 MB WARM LAYER MOVING INTO THE
REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR
NORTHWARD THIS WARM LAYER MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COULD PLAY
ISSUES ON THE TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS. RIGHT NOW APPEARS THAT THIS WARM
LAYER WILL MOVE INTO WELL INTO RI AND NORFOLK CO AND POINTS SOUTH
AND EAST KEEPING BOSTON RIGHT ON THE FRINGE OF SUB-ZERO THERMAL
PROFILE. AND WITH 925 MB TEMPS BELOW 0C WEST OF THE CANAL BELIEVE
SLEET/WINTRY MIX WILL BE INTRODUCED. HOWEVER THE 18Z NAM CAME IN A
LOT WARMER AT THE 700MB LEVEL...IF THIS TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE THIS SNOW TOTALS WILL BE TO HIGH. LASTLY A
COASTAL FRONT WILL ALSO SET UP SOMEWHERE ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR WHERE IT DECIDES TO DEVELOP.

AT THE ONSET...BECAUSE OF BOUNDARY LAYER TEMP ISSUES BELIEVE RAIN
WILL START OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...NEAR DAY BREAK. AS PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE
REGION AND THERMAL FIELDS ALOFT TIGHTEN...EXPECT A GOOD BANDING
SIGNATURE TO DEVELOP...NEAR BDL TO ORH TO BED AT AROUND 15/18Z.
PRECIP INTENSITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BAND SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW ALONG WITH SNOW RATES OF 1-2" PER HOUR.
DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS BELIEVE THAT A COASTAL FRONT WILL SET
UP AND KEEP MOST OF THE COASTAL REGION IN RAIN RATHER THAN SNOW.
HOWEVER AS THE SURFACE WINDS BACK TO A NNE DIRECTION AS WELL EXPECT
MORE LOW LEVEL COOLING WHICH WILL KEEP PRECIP TO ALL SNOW FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE REGION...EXPECT ALONG THE 95 CORRIDOR WHERE A WINTRY
MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/RAIN IS POSSIBLE. THE FRONTAL BAND WILL ALSO
SWITCH TO A MORE NNE ASSOCIATION AS THE THERMAL FIELDS GET BACKED
FROM THE MID-LEVEL WARM AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL PUSH
THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL OVER THE BERKS AND SOUTHERN NH. FINALLY AS THE
STORM EXITS OUT...A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR ALL PRECIP TO
SWITCH TO SNOW AND ALLOW FOR A QUICK COUPLE OF INCHES OF
ACCUMULATIONS.

OVERALL HAVE EXPANDED THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER WARNINGS TO ALL OF
SOUTHERN NH...AND MOST OF MASS MINUS THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND NORTHERN
CT. DECIDED TO GO WITH ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF RI UP TO COASTAL
ESSEX INCLUDING THE CITIES OF PROVIDENCE AND BOSTON. ALTHOUGH
AMOUNTS ARE UNDER ADVISORY FOR THE METRO REGIONS...BECAUSE OF THE
HIGH IMPACT THIS EVENT CAN HAVE ON THE PRE-THANKSGIVING TRAVEL FELT
THE ADVISORY WAS WARRANTED. ALSO WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE
OR IF TEMPS DROP JUST A DEGREE...ACCUMULATIONS COULD ADD UP. FOR NOW
BELIEVE THAT AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE BUT ANOTHER COUPLE
OF INCHES OF SLEET CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

WINDS...

A STRONG LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST JET WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF
RI AND MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS WED AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODELS PROJECTING 45-50 KT JET AT 925 MB. THIS
COUPLED WITH STRONG PRES FALLS AND RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WATERS
PROVIDING A WELL MIXED BLYR WILL YIELD A MODERATE RISK OF 50 MPH
WIND GUSTS FROM SOUTH COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY/CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. TIMING OF STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR 4 PM WED TIL 11 AM THU.
BECAUSE THE JET DYNAMIC DOES NOT SEEM AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS RUNS
HAVE DROPPED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A STRONG WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS
AREA. IF THE COASTAL SYSTEM DOES DEEPEN MORE THEN FORECASTED...AND
THE LLJ DOES STRENGTHEN THEN A HIGH WIND WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

COASTAL FLOODING...

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET ARE EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS VERY QUICK SO THE POTENTIAL FOR A
LONG DURATION EASTERLY FETCH TO BUILD THE SEAS IS LOW. EVEN THE
DURATION OF ONSHORE WINDS ARE SHORT PLUS WITH PRESSURES BEGINNING TO
RISE TOWARD HIGH TIDE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY COASTAL FLOOD ISSUES
INCLUDING EROSION. WORSE CAST...COULD SEE A SURGE NEAR 1.5 FEET
WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME SPLASHOVER AND MINOR BEACH EROSION FOR TYPICAL
PRONE AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES UP THE COAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY. NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY. THE FLOW THEN TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON 500 MB HEIGHTS THROUGH
MONDAY AND THEN SMALL DIVERGENCE TUESDAY. THE GFS IS FASTER/FARTHER
EAST WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSING CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND. BUT THE
MODELS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IN NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MAINTAINS AT LEAST MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DIMINISHING CONFIDENCE BY
NEXT TUESDAY/DAY SEVEN.

THE DAILIES...

THANKSGIVING DAY... SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH TRAILS THE
WEDNESDAY STORM...AND MOVES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
DAY. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A DEEP SUPPLY
OF HIGH-RH AIR AND SOME WEAK LIFT AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.  WE WILL EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDS AS WELL AS A CHANCE OF PCPN.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS INLAND AND
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS IN RI/SOUTHEAST MASS. TEMPERATURE PROFILES
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S...EXCEPT LOWER 40S CAPE AND ISLANDS.

WE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE
20S EXCEPT LOWER 30S CAPE AND ISLANDS. ANY WET SURFACES FROM THE
DAYTIME WILL REFREEZE IN MOST LOCATIONS RESULTING IN TRICKY POST-
MEAL TRAVEL ON ANY UNTREATED SURFACES.

FRIDAY... NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE RACES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND IN THE
MORNING WITH LINGERING AIRMASS MOISTURE BUT WEAK LIFT IF ANY. THIS
COULD HOLD THE CLOUDS IN A LITTLE LONGER FRIDAY MORNING.  BUT IT
MOVES OUT QUICKLY AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SO THE TREND
WILL BE FOR CLEARING SKIES.  MIXING DEPTH WITH THE SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED TO BE RATHER SHALLOW...AROUND 950 MB OR MAYBE A LITTLE
HIGHER.  THIS WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S AND WINDS GUSTING TO
15-20 KNOTS.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
INITIALLY FALL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. BUT MOISTURE
FIELDS SUGGEST SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY LOW
CLOUDS MOVING UP FROM THE OCEAN TOWARD CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
FORECAST TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH 14-23 EXCEPT 24-30
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
WARM FRONT SWEEPS NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OFFSHORE. THE COMBINATION SUGGESTS A WARMING TREND OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH A 12C INCREASED IN TEMPS ALOFT BETWEEN SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE WARM FRONT WILL BRING VARIABLE SKY COVER...AS NOTED BY
RH FIELDS ALOFT IN THE MODELS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 925 MB INCREASE
TO 30 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND 30-40 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. EXPECT SOME GUSTINESS TO OUR SURFACE WINDS EACH DAY. BUT
LOW-LEVEL MIXING WILL BE LESS THAN IDEAL EACH DAY WITH BETTER
MIXING SATURDAY AND LESS SUNDAY.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE IN THE ZONAL FLOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND EITHER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. TIMING OF
THE SHORTWAVE IN A ZONAL FLOW THIS FAR OUT IS IN QUESTION BUT THAT/S
OUR BEST SHOT AT THIS TIME. LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT TOGETHER WITH
FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS FROM A 125 KNOT JET...SO WE HAVE CHANCE POPS
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.  HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS DRY WEATHER FOR
THE REST OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS UP TO 09Z THEN CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO DETERIORATE FROM VFR TO IFR.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...COASTAL STORM ANTICIPATED.
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION SNOWS OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS IMMEDIATELY
W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. +SN POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY BDL-ORH AND
POSSIBLY FOR A TIME AT BOS AROUND 18Z THU. STRONG NE WINDS UP TO
45 KT AT HYA AND ACK AROUND 00Z THU.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

THURSDAY...MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. DIMINISHING
NORTHWEST WINDS.

FRIDAY...VFR WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 15-20 KNOTS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...INCREASING SKY COVER BUT MAINLY VFR. LOW POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR CIGS MOVING NORTH OFF THE OCEAN INTO CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.
INCREASING WINDS AT 2000 FEET...REACHING SOUTHWEST 35-40
KNOTS...WITH LIGHTER SOUTHWEST WINDS AT SURFACE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...THE LULL BEFORE THE STORM. SW WINDS DIMINISH AS THEY
VEER DURING THE NIGHT. SEAS REMAIN NEAR 5 FT.

WED INTO WED NIGHT...

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED TO PASS AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK 00Z THU.
HIGH PROB OF NE GALES WITH A LOW RISK OF STORM FORCE GUSTS 21Z
WED TO 06Z THU. HEAVY RAIN LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT
TIMES. GALE WARNING IS OUT WITH HIGH END GUSTS ANTICIPATE. CANT
RULE OUT A FEW STORM FORCE GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY... NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS IN THE MORNING BUT
DIMINISHING. SEAS START THE DAY 5 TO 11 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS
AND SUBSIDE TO 5 TO 6 FEET BY THE END OF THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED ON MOST WATERS.

FRIDAY... LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL GUST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ON
SOME OF THE WATERS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY... SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.  A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MAZ002>006-008>012-026.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     MAZ019-022>024.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MAZ007-013>016.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     RIZ008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR RIZ001>003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 260028
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
728 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG NOREASTER WILL MOVE CLOSE TO THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THIS WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW...WIND AND COASTAL ISSUES.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FOR THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE OVER THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
OR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 4 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

7 PM UPDATE...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH INLAND DEWPOINTS IN THE
20S. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH INCREASING AND
LOWERING CLOUDS. IN OTHER WORDS...NO CHANGES IN FORECAST
THINKING. JUST A FEW TWEAKS ON GRID DETAILS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS IS DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE THE CAROLINA COAST.
EXPECT A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION TO REMAIN DRY FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT...UNTIL PRECIP WILL BLOSSOM FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
NEAR 09Z.

NOT A LOT OF COOL AIR ALOFT SO OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD AS
CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT DIURNAL RADIATION. LOW OVERNIGHT WILL DROP IN
THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. HOWEVER ONCE PRECIP MOVES INTO THE
REGION...AND DEPENDING ON INTENSITY TEMPS MAY WET BULB AND DROP AT
OR BELOW FREEZING.

HAVE NOTICED THAT THIS SYSTEM IS SPEEDING UP SO THE MORNING COMMUTE
MAY BE IMPACT FOR CT AND RI TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /4 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT...

*** EARLY SEASON WINTER STORM TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION WED/WED
  NIGHT ***

IMPACTS...

* HEAVY SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR IMPACTING WED TRAVEL
* GUSTY WINDS ACROSS COASTAL PLYMOUTH CO AND THE ISLANDS
* STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS
* MINOR BEACH EROSION AND SPLASHOVER FOR THE THURS AM HIGH TIDE

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THIS HAS ALLOWED A GOOD PLUME OF MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...TAPPING IN TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM BOTH THE GULF AS WELL
AS THE BAHAMAS. FROM THIS SHORTWAVE...A WEAK WAVE WILL DEVELOP AND
GENERATE A SURFACE LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS LOW WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST AND DEVELOP AN EARLY SEASON
NOR`EASTER FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS A VERY QUICK SYSTEM DUE
TO THE LACK OF BLOCKING UPSTREAM. SURFACE LOW IS STILL TRACKING NEAR
THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...WITH H85 CIRCULATION MOVING ACROSS CAPE COD
AND H7 LOW DEVELOPING AND TRACKING OVER BDL-MHT LINE. THIS SYSTEM
WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY WED NIGHT AND PRECIP SHOULD
BE WINDING DOWN BY DAY BREAK THURSDAY.

GUIDANCE...

GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS FOR THE 12Z SUITE. BIGGEST
THING IS THAT THE SYSTEM IS MOVING A FEW HOURS FASTER THEN
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE LARGER-SCALE FEATURES INCLUDING
THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH...DIFFERENCES IN THE
DETAILS REMAIN. APPEARS THAT THERE IS A 700 MB WARM-AIR
INTRUSION/DRY SLOT IMPENDING UP NARRAGANSETT BAY AND UP INTO NORFOLK
CO. NOTED THAT THE NAM/CMC WHERE THE COLDER SOLUTIONS COMPARED TO
THE GFS/EC/SREF AND UKMET WHICH WERE SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THEIR TEMPS
ALOFT. BECAUSE OF THIS GOOD CLUSTERING TRENDED THE FORECAST WITH THE
GFS/EC/WPC IN TERMS OF THICKNESS AND QPF.

PTYPE AND SNOWFALL...

TRICKIEST PART OF THE FORECAST WAS DETERMINING SNOWFALL ACCUMS AND P-
TYPES. BIGGEST REASON IS THE 700 MB WARM LAYER MOVING INTO THE
REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR
NORTHWARD THIS WARM LAYER MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COULD PLAY
ISSUES ON THE TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS. RIGHT NOW APPEARS THAT THIS WARM
LAYER WILL MOVE INTO WELL INTO RI AND NORFOLK CO AND POINTS SOUTH
AND EAST KEEPING BOSTON RIGHT ON THE FRINGE OF SUB-ZERO THERMAL
PROFILE. AND WITH 925 MB TEMPS BELOW 0C WEST OF THE CANAL BELIEVE
SLEET/WINTRY MIX WILL BE INTRODUCED. HOWEVER THE 18Z NAM CAME IN A
LOT WARMER AT THE 700MB LEVEL...IF THIS TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE THIS SNOW TOTALS WILL BE TO HIGH. LASTLY A
COASTAL FRONT WILL ALSO SET UP SOMEWHERE ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR WHERE IT DECIDES TO DEVELOP.

AT THE ONSET...BECAUSE OF BOUNDARY LAYER TEMP ISSUES BELIEVE RAIN
WILL START OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...NEAR DAY BREAK. AS PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE
REGION AND THERMAL FIELDS ALOFT TIGHTEN...EXPECT A GOOD BANDING
SIGNATURE TO DEVELOP...NEAR BDL TO ORH TO BED AT AROUND 15/18Z.
PRECIP INTENSITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BAND SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW ALONG WITH SNOW RATES OF 1-2" PER HOUR.
DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS BELIEVE THAT A COASTAL FRONT WILL SET
UP AND KEEP MOST OF THE COASTAL REGION IN RAIN RATHER THAN SNOW.
HOWEVER AS THE SURFACE WINDS BACK TO A NNE DIRECTION AS WELL EXPECT
MORE LOW LEVEL COOLING WHICH WILL KEEP PRECIP TO ALL SNOW FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE REGION...EXPECT ALONG THE 95 CORRIDOR WHERE A WINTRY
MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/RAIN IS POSSIBLE. THE FRONTAL BAND WILL ALSO
SWITCH TO A MORE NNE ASSOCIATION AS THE THERMAL FIELDS GET BACKED
FROM THE MID-LEVEL WARM AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL PUSH
THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL OVER THE BERKS AND SOUTHERN NH. FINALLY AS THE
STORM EXITS OUT...A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR ALL PRECIP TO
SWITCH TO SNOW AND ALLOW FOR A QUICK COUPLE OF INCHES OF
ACCUMULATIONS.

OVERALL HAVE EXPANDED THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER WARNINGS TO ALL OF
SOUTHERN NH...AND MOST OF MASS MINUS THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND NORTHERN
CT. DECIDED TO GO WITH ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF RI UP TO COASTAL
ESSEX INCLUDING THE CITIES OF PROVIDENCE AND BOSTON. ALTHOUGH
AMOUNTS ARE UNDER ADVISORY FOR THE METRO REGIONS...BECAUSE OF THE
HIGH IMPACT THIS EVENT CAN HAVE ON THE PRE-THANKSGIVING TRAVEL FELT
THE ADVISORY WAS WARRANTED. ALSO WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE
OR IF TEMPS DROP JUST A DEGREE...ACCUMULATIONS COULD ADD UP. FOR NOW
BELIEVE THAT AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE BUT ANOTHER COUPLE
OF INCHES OF SLEET CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

WINDS...

A STRONG LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST JET WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF
RI AND MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS WED AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODELS PROJECTING 45-50 KT JET AT 925 MB. THIS
COUPLED WITH STRONG PRES FALLS AND RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WATERS
PROVIDING A WELL MIXED BLYR WILL YIELD A MODERATE RISK OF 50 MPH
WIND GUSTS FROM SOUTH COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY/CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. TIMING OF STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR 4 PM WED TIL 11 AM THU.
BECAUSE THE JET DYNAMIC DOES NOT SEEM AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS RUNS
HAVE DROPPED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A STRONG WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS
AREA. IF THE COASTAL SYSTEM DOES DEEPEN MORE THEN FORECASTED...AND
THE LLJ DOES STRENGTHEN THEN A HIGH WIND WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

COASTAL FLOODING...

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET ARE EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS VERY QUICK SO THE POTENTIAL FOR A
LONG DURATION EASTERLY FETCH TO BUILD THE SEAS IS LOW. EVEN THE
DURATION OF ONSHORE WINDS ARE SHORT PLUS WITH PRESSURES BEGINNING TO
RISE TOWARD HIGH TIDE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY COASTAL FLOOD ISSUES
INCLUDING EROSION. WORSE CAST...COULD SEE A SURGE NEAR 1.5 FEET
WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME SPLASHOVER AND MINOR BEACH EROSION FOR TYPICAL
PRONE AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES UP THE COAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY. NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY. THE FLOW THEN TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON 500 MB HEIGHTS THROUGH
MONDAY AND THEN SMALL DIVERGENCE TUESDAY. THE GFS IS FASTER/FARTHER
EAST WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSING CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND. BUT THE
MODELS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IN NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MAINTAINS AT LEAST MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DIMINISHING CONFIDENCE BY
NEXT TUESDAY/DAY SEVEN.

THE DAILIES...

THANKSGIVING DAY... SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH TRAILS THE
WEDNESDAY STORM...AND MOVES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
DAY. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A DEEP SUPPLY
OF HIGH-RH AIR AND SOME WEAK LIFT AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.  WE WILL EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDS AS WELL AS A CHANCE OF PCPN.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS INLAND AND
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS IN RI/SOUTHEAST MASS. TEMPERATURE PROFILES
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S...EXCEPT LOWER 40S CAPE AND ISLANDS.

WE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE
20S EXCEPT LOWER 30S CAPE AND ISLANDS. ANY WET SURFACES FROM THE
DAYTIME WILL REFREEZE IN MOST LOCATIONS RESULTING IN TRICKY POST-
MEAL TRAVEL ON ANY UNTREATED SURFACES.

FRIDAY... NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE RACES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND IN THE
MORNING WITH LINGERING AIRMASS MOISTURE BUT WEAK LIFT IF ANY. THIS
COULD HOLD THE CLOUDS IN A LITTLE LONGER FRIDAY MORNING.  BUT IT
MOVES OUT QUICKLY AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SO THE TREND
WILL BE FOR CLEARING SKIES.  MIXING DEPTH WITH THE SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED TO BE RATHER SHALLOW...AROUND 950 MB OR MAYBE A LITTLE
HIGHER.  THIS WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S AND WINDS GUSTING TO
15-20 KNOTS.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
INITIALLY FALL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. BUT MOISTURE
FIELDS SUGGEST SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY LOW
CLOUDS MOVING UP FROM THE OCEAN TOWARD CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
FORECAST TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH 14-23 EXCEPT 24-30
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
WARM FRONT SWEEPS NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OFFSHORE. THE COMBINATION SUGGESTS A WARMING TREND OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH A 12C INCREASED IN TEMPS ALOFT BETWEEN SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE WARM FRONT WILL BRING VARIABLE SKY COVER...AS NOTED BY
RH FIELDS ALOFT IN THE MODELS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 925 MB INCREASE
TO 30 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND 30-40 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. EXPECT SOME GUSTINESS TO OUR SURFACE WINDS EACH DAY. BUT
LOW-LEVEL MIXING WILL BE LESS THAN IDEAL EACH DAY WITH BETTER
MIXING SATURDAY AND LESS SUNDAY.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE IN THE ZONAL FLOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND EITHER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. TIMING OF
THE SHORTWAVE IN A ZONAL FLOW THIS FAR OUT IS IN QUESTION BUT THAT/S
OUR BEST SHOT AT THIS TIME. LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT TOGETHER WITH
FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS FROM A 125 KNOT JET...SO WE HAVE CHANCE POPS
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.  HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS DRY WEATHER FOR
THE REST OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS UP TO 09Z THEN CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO DETERIORATE FROM VFR TO IFR.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...COASTAL STORM ANTICIPATED.
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION SNOWS OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS IMMEDIATELY
W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. +SN POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY BDL-ORH AND
POSSIBLY FOR A TIME AT BOS AROUND 18Z THU. STRONG NE WINDS UP TO
45 KT AT HYA AND ACK AROUND 00Z THU.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

THURSDAY...MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. DIMINISHING
NORTHWEST WINDS.

FRIDAY...VFR WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 15-20 KNOTS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...INCREASING SKY COVER BUT MAINLY VFR. LOW POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR CIGS MOVING NORTH OFF THE OCEAN INTO CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.
INCREASING WINDS AT 2000 FEET...REACHING SOUTHWEST 35-40
KNOTS...WITH LIGHTER SOUTHWEST WINDS AT SURFACE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...THE LULL BEFORE THE STORM. SW WINDS DIMINISH AS THEY
VEER DURING THE NIGHT. SEAS REMAIN NEAR 5 FT.

WED INTO WED NIGHT...

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED TO PASS AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK 00Z THU.
HIGH PROB OF NE GALES WITH A LOW RISK OF STORM FORCE GUSTS 21Z
WED TO 06Z THU. HEAVY RAIN LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT
TIMES. GALE WARNING IS OUT WITH HIGH END GUSTS ANTICIPATE. CANT
RULE OUT A FEW STORM FORCE GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY... NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS IN THE MORNING BUT
DIMINISHING. SEAS START THE DAY 5 TO 11 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS
AND SUBSIDE TO 5 TO 6 FEET BY THE END OF THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED ON MOST WATERS.

FRIDAY... LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL GUST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ON
SOME OF THE WATERS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY... SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.  A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MAZ002>006-008>012-026.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     MAZ019-022>024.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MAZ007-013>016.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     RIZ008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR RIZ001>003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 260028
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
728 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG NOREASTER WILL MOVE CLOSE TO THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THIS WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW...WIND AND COASTAL ISSUES.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FOR THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE OVER THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
OR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 4 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

7 PM UPDATE...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH INLAND DEWPOINTS IN THE
20S. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH INCREASING AND
LOWERING CLOUDS. IN OTHER WORDS...NO CHANGES IN FORECAST
THINKING. JUST A FEW TWEAKS ON GRID DETAILS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS IS DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE THE CAROLINA COAST.
EXPECT A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION TO REMAIN DRY FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT...UNTIL PRECIP WILL BLOSSOM FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
NEAR 09Z.

NOT A LOT OF COOL AIR ALOFT SO OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD AS
CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT DIURNAL RADIATION. LOW OVERNIGHT WILL DROP IN
THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. HOWEVER ONCE PRECIP MOVES INTO THE
REGION...AND DEPENDING ON INTENSITY TEMPS MAY WET BULB AND DROP AT
OR BELOW FREEZING.

HAVE NOTICED THAT THIS SYSTEM IS SPEEDING UP SO THE MORNING COMMUTE
MAY BE IMPACT FOR CT AND RI TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /4 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT...

*** EARLY SEASON WINTER STORM TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION WED/WED
  NIGHT ***

IMPACTS...

* HEAVY SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR IMPACTING WED TRAVEL
* GUSTY WINDS ACROSS COASTAL PLYMOUTH CO AND THE ISLANDS
* STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS
* MINOR BEACH EROSION AND SPLASHOVER FOR THE THURS AM HIGH TIDE

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THIS HAS ALLOWED A GOOD PLUME OF MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...TAPPING IN TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM BOTH THE GULF AS WELL
AS THE BAHAMAS. FROM THIS SHORTWAVE...A WEAK WAVE WILL DEVELOP AND
GENERATE A SURFACE LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS LOW WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST AND DEVELOP AN EARLY SEASON
NOR`EASTER FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS A VERY QUICK SYSTEM DUE
TO THE LACK OF BLOCKING UPSTREAM. SURFACE LOW IS STILL TRACKING NEAR
THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...WITH H85 CIRCULATION MOVING ACROSS CAPE COD
AND H7 LOW DEVELOPING AND TRACKING OVER BDL-MHT LINE. THIS SYSTEM
WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY WED NIGHT AND PRECIP SHOULD
BE WINDING DOWN BY DAY BREAK THURSDAY.

GUIDANCE...

GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS FOR THE 12Z SUITE. BIGGEST
THING IS THAT THE SYSTEM IS MOVING A FEW HOURS FASTER THEN
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE LARGER-SCALE FEATURES INCLUDING
THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH...DIFFERENCES IN THE
DETAILS REMAIN. APPEARS THAT THERE IS A 700 MB WARM-AIR
INTRUSION/DRY SLOT IMPENDING UP NARRAGANSETT BAY AND UP INTO NORFOLK
CO. NOTED THAT THE NAM/CMC WHERE THE COLDER SOLUTIONS COMPARED TO
THE GFS/EC/SREF AND UKMET WHICH WERE SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THEIR TEMPS
ALOFT. BECAUSE OF THIS GOOD CLUSTERING TRENDED THE FORECAST WITH THE
GFS/EC/WPC IN TERMS OF THICKNESS AND QPF.

PTYPE AND SNOWFALL...

TRICKIEST PART OF THE FORECAST WAS DETERMINING SNOWFALL ACCUMS AND P-
TYPES. BIGGEST REASON IS THE 700 MB WARM LAYER MOVING INTO THE
REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR
NORTHWARD THIS WARM LAYER MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COULD PLAY
ISSUES ON THE TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS. RIGHT NOW APPEARS THAT THIS WARM
LAYER WILL MOVE INTO WELL INTO RI AND NORFOLK CO AND POINTS SOUTH
AND EAST KEEPING BOSTON RIGHT ON THE FRINGE OF SUB-ZERO THERMAL
PROFILE. AND WITH 925 MB TEMPS BELOW 0C WEST OF THE CANAL BELIEVE
SLEET/WINTRY MIX WILL BE INTRODUCED. HOWEVER THE 18Z NAM CAME IN A
LOT WARMER AT THE 700MB LEVEL...IF THIS TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE THIS SNOW TOTALS WILL BE TO HIGH. LASTLY A
COASTAL FRONT WILL ALSO SET UP SOMEWHERE ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR WHERE IT DECIDES TO DEVELOP.

AT THE ONSET...BECAUSE OF BOUNDARY LAYER TEMP ISSUES BELIEVE RAIN
WILL START OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...NEAR DAY BREAK. AS PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE
REGION AND THERMAL FIELDS ALOFT TIGHTEN...EXPECT A GOOD BANDING
SIGNATURE TO DEVELOP...NEAR BDL TO ORH TO BED AT AROUND 15/18Z.
PRECIP INTENSITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BAND SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW ALONG WITH SNOW RATES OF 1-2" PER HOUR.
DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS BELIEVE THAT A COASTAL FRONT WILL SET
UP AND KEEP MOST OF THE COASTAL REGION IN RAIN RATHER THAN SNOW.
HOWEVER AS THE SURFACE WINDS BACK TO A NNE DIRECTION AS WELL EXPECT
MORE LOW LEVEL COOLING WHICH WILL KEEP PRECIP TO ALL SNOW FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE REGION...EXPECT ALONG THE 95 CORRIDOR WHERE A WINTRY
MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/RAIN IS POSSIBLE. THE FRONTAL BAND WILL ALSO
SWITCH TO A MORE NNE ASSOCIATION AS THE THERMAL FIELDS GET BACKED
FROM THE MID-LEVEL WARM AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL PUSH
THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL OVER THE BERKS AND SOUTHERN NH. FINALLY AS THE
STORM EXITS OUT...A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR ALL PRECIP TO
SWITCH TO SNOW AND ALLOW FOR A QUICK COUPLE OF INCHES OF
ACCUMULATIONS.

OVERALL HAVE EXPANDED THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER WARNINGS TO ALL OF
SOUTHERN NH...AND MOST OF MASS MINUS THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND NORTHERN
CT. DECIDED TO GO WITH ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF RI UP TO COASTAL
ESSEX INCLUDING THE CITIES OF PROVIDENCE AND BOSTON. ALTHOUGH
AMOUNTS ARE UNDER ADVISORY FOR THE METRO REGIONS...BECAUSE OF THE
HIGH IMPACT THIS EVENT CAN HAVE ON THE PRE-THANKSGIVING TRAVEL FELT
THE ADVISORY WAS WARRANTED. ALSO WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE
OR IF TEMPS DROP JUST A DEGREE...ACCUMULATIONS COULD ADD UP. FOR NOW
BELIEVE THAT AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE BUT ANOTHER COUPLE
OF INCHES OF SLEET CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

WINDS...

A STRONG LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST JET WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF
RI AND MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS WED AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODELS PROJECTING 45-50 KT JET AT 925 MB. THIS
COUPLED WITH STRONG PRES FALLS AND RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WATERS
PROVIDING A WELL MIXED BLYR WILL YIELD A MODERATE RISK OF 50 MPH
WIND GUSTS FROM SOUTH COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY/CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. TIMING OF STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR 4 PM WED TIL 11 AM THU.
BECAUSE THE JET DYNAMIC DOES NOT SEEM AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS RUNS
HAVE DROPPED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A STRONG WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS
AREA. IF THE COASTAL SYSTEM DOES DEEPEN MORE THEN FORECASTED...AND
THE LLJ DOES STRENGTHEN THEN A HIGH WIND WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

COASTAL FLOODING...

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET ARE EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS VERY QUICK SO THE POTENTIAL FOR A
LONG DURATION EASTERLY FETCH TO BUILD THE SEAS IS LOW. EVEN THE
DURATION OF ONSHORE WINDS ARE SHORT PLUS WITH PRESSURES BEGINNING TO
RISE TOWARD HIGH TIDE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY COASTAL FLOOD ISSUES
INCLUDING EROSION. WORSE CAST...COULD SEE A SURGE NEAR 1.5 FEET
WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME SPLASHOVER AND MINOR BEACH EROSION FOR TYPICAL
PRONE AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES UP THE COAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY. NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY. THE FLOW THEN TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON 500 MB HEIGHTS THROUGH
MONDAY AND THEN SMALL DIVERGENCE TUESDAY. THE GFS IS FASTER/FARTHER
EAST WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSING CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND. BUT THE
MODELS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IN NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MAINTAINS AT LEAST MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DIMINISHING CONFIDENCE BY
NEXT TUESDAY/DAY SEVEN.

THE DAILIES...

THANKSGIVING DAY... SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH TRAILS THE
WEDNESDAY STORM...AND MOVES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
DAY. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A DEEP SUPPLY
OF HIGH-RH AIR AND SOME WEAK LIFT AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.  WE WILL EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDS AS WELL AS A CHANCE OF PCPN.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS INLAND AND
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS IN RI/SOUTHEAST MASS. TEMPERATURE PROFILES
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S...EXCEPT LOWER 40S CAPE AND ISLANDS.

WE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE
20S EXCEPT LOWER 30S CAPE AND ISLANDS. ANY WET SURFACES FROM THE
DAYTIME WILL REFREEZE IN MOST LOCATIONS RESULTING IN TRICKY POST-
MEAL TRAVEL ON ANY UNTREATED SURFACES.

FRIDAY... NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE RACES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND IN THE
MORNING WITH LINGERING AIRMASS MOISTURE BUT WEAK LIFT IF ANY. THIS
COULD HOLD THE CLOUDS IN A LITTLE LONGER FRIDAY MORNING.  BUT IT
MOVES OUT QUICKLY AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SO THE TREND
WILL BE FOR CLEARING SKIES.  MIXING DEPTH WITH THE SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED TO BE RATHER SHALLOW...AROUND 950 MB OR MAYBE A LITTLE
HIGHER.  THIS WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S AND WINDS GUSTING TO
15-20 KNOTS.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
INITIALLY FALL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. BUT MOISTURE
FIELDS SUGGEST SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY LOW
CLOUDS MOVING UP FROM THE OCEAN TOWARD CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
FORECAST TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH 14-23 EXCEPT 24-30
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
WARM FRONT SWEEPS NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OFFSHORE. THE COMBINATION SUGGESTS A WARMING TREND OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH A 12C INCREASED IN TEMPS ALOFT BETWEEN SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE WARM FRONT WILL BRING VARIABLE SKY COVER...AS NOTED BY
RH FIELDS ALOFT IN THE MODELS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 925 MB INCREASE
TO 30 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND 30-40 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. EXPECT SOME GUSTINESS TO OUR SURFACE WINDS EACH DAY. BUT
LOW-LEVEL MIXING WILL BE LESS THAN IDEAL EACH DAY WITH BETTER
MIXING SATURDAY AND LESS SUNDAY.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE IN THE ZONAL FLOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND EITHER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. TIMING OF
THE SHORTWAVE IN A ZONAL FLOW THIS FAR OUT IS IN QUESTION BUT THAT/S
OUR BEST SHOT AT THIS TIME. LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT TOGETHER WITH
FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS FROM A 125 KNOT JET...SO WE HAVE CHANCE POPS
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.  HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS DRY WEATHER FOR
THE REST OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS UP TO 09Z THEN CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO DETERIORATE FROM VFR TO IFR.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...COASTAL STORM ANTICIPATED.
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION SNOWS OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS IMMEDIATELY
W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. +SN POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY BDL-ORH AND
POSSIBLY FOR A TIME AT BOS AROUND 18Z THU. STRONG NE WINDS UP TO
45 KT AT HYA AND ACK AROUND 00Z THU.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

THURSDAY...MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. DIMINISHING
NORTHWEST WINDS.

FRIDAY...VFR WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 15-20 KNOTS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...INCREASING SKY COVER BUT MAINLY VFR. LOW POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR CIGS MOVING NORTH OFF THE OCEAN INTO CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.
INCREASING WINDS AT 2000 FEET...REACHING SOUTHWEST 35-40
KNOTS...WITH LIGHTER SOUTHWEST WINDS AT SURFACE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...THE LULL BEFORE THE STORM. SW WINDS DIMINISH AS THEY
VEER DURING THE NIGHT. SEAS REMAIN NEAR 5 FT.

WED INTO WED NIGHT...

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED TO PASS AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK 00Z THU.
HIGH PROB OF NE GALES WITH A LOW RISK OF STORM FORCE GUSTS 21Z
WED TO 06Z THU. HEAVY RAIN LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT
TIMES. GALE WARNING IS OUT WITH HIGH END GUSTS ANTICIPATE. CANT
RULE OUT A FEW STORM FORCE GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY... NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS IN THE MORNING BUT
DIMINISHING. SEAS START THE DAY 5 TO 11 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS
AND SUBSIDE TO 5 TO 6 FEET BY THE END OF THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED ON MOST WATERS.

FRIDAY... LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL GUST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ON
SOME OF THE WATERS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY... SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.  A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MAZ002>006-008>012-026.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     MAZ019-022>024.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MAZ007-013>016.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     RIZ008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR RIZ001>003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 260028
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
728 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG NOREASTER WILL MOVE CLOSE TO THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THIS WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW...WIND AND COASTAL ISSUES.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FOR THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE OVER THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
OR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 4 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

7 PM UPDATE...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH INLAND DEWPOINTS IN THE
20S. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH INCREASING AND
LOWERING CLOUDS. IN OTHER WORDS...NO CHANGES IN FORECAST
THINKING. JUST A FEW TWEAKS ON GRID DETAILS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS IS DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE THE CAROLINA COAST.
EXPECT A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION TO REMAIN DRY FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT...UNTIL PRECIP WILL BLOSSOM FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
NEAR 09Z.

NOT A LOT OF COOL AIR ALOFT SO OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD AS
CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT DIURNAL RADIATION. LOW OVERNIGHT WILL DROP IN
THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. HOWEVER ONCE PRECIP MOVES INTO THE
REGION...AND DEPENDING ON INTENSITY TEMPS MAY WET BULB AND DROP AT
OR BELOW FREEZING.

HAVE NOTICED THAT THIS SYSTEM IS SPEEDING UP SO THE MORNING COMMUTE
MAY BE IMPACT FOR CT AND RI TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /4 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT...

*** EARLY SEASON WINTER STORM TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION WED/WED
  NIGHT ***

IMPACTS...

* HEAVY SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR IMPACTING WED TRAVEL
* GUSTY WINDS ACROSS COASTAL PLYMOUTH CO AND THE ISLANDS
* STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS
* MINOR BEACH EROSION AND SPLASHOVER FOR THE THURS AM HIGH TIDE

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THIS HAS ALLOWED A GOOD PLUME OF MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...TAPPING IN TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM BOTH THE GULF AS WELL
AS THE BAHAMAS. FROM THIS SHORTWAVE...A WEAK WAVE WILL DEVELOP AND
GENERATE A SURFACE LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS LOW WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST AND DEVELOP AN EARLY SEASON
NOR`EASTER FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS A VERY QUICK SYSTEM DUE
TO THE LACK OF BLOCKING UPSTREAM. SURFACE LOW IS STILL TRACKING NEAR
THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...WITH H85 CIRCULATION MOVING ACROSS CAPE COD
AND H7 LOW DEVELOPING AND TRACKING OVER BDL-MHT LINE. THIS SYSTEM
WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY WED NIGHT AND PRECIP SHOULD
BE WINDING DOWN BY DAY BREAK THURSDAY.

GUIDANCE...

GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS FOR THE 12Z SUITE. BIGGEST
THING IS THAT THE SYSTEM IS MOVING A FEW HOURS FASTER THEN
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE LARGER-SCALE FEATURES INCLUDING
THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH...DIFFERENCES IN THE
DETAILS REMAIN. APPEARS THAT THERE IS A 700 MB WARM-AIR
INTRUSION/DRY SLOT IMPENDING UP NARRAGANSETT BAY AND UP INTO NORFOLK
CO. NOTED THAT THE NAM/CMC WHERE THE COLDER SOLUTIONS COMPARED TO
THE GFS/EC/SREF AND UKMET WHICH WERE SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THEIR TEMPS
ALOFT. BECAUSE OF THIS GOOD CLUSTERING TRENDED THE FORECAST WITH THE
GFS/EC/WPC IN TERMS OF THICKNESS AND QPF.

PTYPE AND SNOWFALL...

TRICKIEST PART OF THE FORECAST WAS DETERMINING SNOWFALL ACCUMS AND P-
TYPES. BIGGEST REASON IS THE 700 MB WARM LAYER MOVING INTO THE
REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR
NORTHWARD THIS WARM LAYER MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COULD PLAY
ISSUES ON THE TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS. RIGHT NOW APPEARS THAT THIS WARM
LAYER WILL MOVE INTO WELL INTO RI AND NORFOLK CO AND POINTS SOUTH
AND EAST KEEPING BOSTON RIGHT ON THE FRINGE OF SUB-ZERO THERMAL
PROFILE. AND WITH 925 MB TEMPS BELOW 0C WEST OF THE CANAL BELIEVE
SLEET/WINTRY MIX WILL BE INTRODUCED. HOWEVER THE 18Z NAM CAME IN A
LOT WARMER AT THE 700MB LEVEL...IF THIS TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE THIS SNOW TOTALS WILL BE TO HIGH. LASTLY A
COASTAL FRONT WILL ALSO SET UP SOMEWHERE ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR WHERE IT DECIDES TO DEVELOP.

AT THE ONSET...BECAUSE OF BOUNDARY LAYER TEMP ISSUES BELIEVE RAIN
WILL START OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...NEAR DAY BREAK. AS PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE
REGION AND THERMAL FIELDS ALOFT TIGHTEN...EXPECT A GOOD BANDING
SIGNATURE TO DEVELOP...NEAR BDL TO ORH TO BED AT AROUND 15/18Z.
PRECIP INTENSITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BAND SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW ALONG WITH SNOW RATES OF 1-2" PER HOUR.
DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS BELIEVE THAT A COASTAL FRONT WILL SET
UP AND KEEP MOST OF THE COASTAL REGION IN RAIN RATHER THAN SNOW.
HOWEVER AS THE SURFACE WINDS BACK TO A NNE DIRECTION AS WELL EXPECT
MORE LOW LEVEL COOLING WHICH WILL KEEP PRECIP TO ALL SNOW FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE REGION...EXPECT ALONG THE 95 CORRIDOR WHERE A WINTRY
MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/RAIN IS POSSIBLE. THE FRONTAL BAND WILL ALSO
SWITCH TO A MORE NNE ASSOCIATION AS THE THERMAL FIELDS GET BACKED
FROM THE MID-LEVEL WARM AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL PUSH
THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL OVER THE BERKS AND SOUTHERN NH. FINALLY AS THE
STORM EXITS OUT...A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR ALL PRECIP TO
SWITCH TO SNOW AND ALLOW FOR A QUICK COUPLE OF INCHES OF
ACCUMULATIONS.

OVERALL HAVE EXPANDED THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER WARNINGS TO ALL OF
SOUTHERN NH...AND MOST OF MASS MINUS THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND NORTHERN
CT. DECIDED TO GO WITH ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF RI UP TO COASTAL
ESSEX INCLUDING THE CITIES OF PROVIDENCE AND BOSTON. ALTHOUGH
AMOUNTS ARE UNDER ADVISORY FOR THE METRO REGIONS...BECAUSE OF THE
HIGH IMPACT THIS EVENT CAN HAVE ON THE PRE-THANKSGIVING TRAVEL FELT
THE ADVISORY WAS WARRANTED. ALSO WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE
OR IF TEMPS DROP JUST A DEGREE...ACCUMULATIONS COULD ADD UP. FOR NOW
BELIEVE THAT AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE BUT ANOTHER COUPLE
OF INCHES OF SLEET CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

WINDS...

A STRONG LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST JET WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF
RI AND MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS WED AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODELS PROJECTING 45-50 KT JET AT 925 MB. THIS
COUPLED WITH STRONG PRES FALLS AND RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WATERS
PROVIDING A WELL MIXED BLYR WILL YIELD A MODERATE RISK OF 50 MPH
WIND GUSTS FROM SOUTH COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY/CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. TIMING OF STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR 4 PM WED TIL 11 AM THU.
BECAUSE THE JET DYNAMIC DOES NOT SEEM AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS RUNS
HAVE DROPPED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A STRONG WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS
AREA. IF THE COASTAL SYSTEM DOES DEEPEN MORE THEN FORECASTED...AND
THE LLJ DOES STRENGTHEN THEN A HIGH WIND WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

COASTAL FLOODING...

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET ARE EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS VERY QUICK SO THE POTENTIAL FOR A
LONG DURATION EASTERLY FETCH TO BUILD THE SEAS IS LOW. EVEN THE
DURATION OF ONSHORE WINDS ARE SHORT PLUS WITH PRESSURES BEGINNING TO
RISE TOWARD HIGH TIDE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY COASTAL FLOOD ISSUES
INCLUDING EROSION. WORSE CAST...COULD SEE A SURGE NEAR 1.5 FEET
WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME SPLASHOVER AND MINOR BEACH EROSION FOR TYPICAL
PRONE AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES UP THE COAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY. NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY. THE FLOW THEN TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON 500 MB HEIGHTS THROUGH
MONDAY AND THEN SMALL DIVERGENCE TUESDAY. THE GFS IS FASTER/FARTHER
EAST WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSING CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND. BUT THE
MODELS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IN NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MAINTAINS AT LEAST MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DIMINISHING CONFIDENCE BY
NEXT TUESDAY/DAY SEVEN.

THE DAILIES...

THANKSGIVING DAY... SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH TRAILS THE
WEDNESDAY STORM...AND MOVES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
DAY. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A DEEP SUPPLY
OF HIGH-RH AIR AND SOME WEAK LIFT AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.  WE WILL EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDS AS WELL AS A CHANCE OF PCPN.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS INLAND AND
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS IN RI/SOUTHEAST MASS. TEMPERATURE PROFILES
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S...EXCEPT LOWER 40S CAPE AND ISLANDS.

WE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE
20S EXCEPT LOWER 30S CAPE AND ISLANDS. ANY WET SURFACES FROM THE
DAYTIME WILL REFREEZE IN MOST LOCATIONS RESULTING IN TRICKY POST-
MEAL TRAVEL ON ANY UNTREATED SURFACES.

FRIDAY... NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE RACES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND IN THE
MORNING WITH LINGERING AIRMASS MOISTURE BUT WEAK LIFT IF ANY. THIS
COULD HOLD THE CLOUDS IN A LITTLE LONGER FRIDAY MORNING.  BUT IT
MOVES OUT QUICKLY AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SO THE TREND
WILL BE FOR CLEARING SKIES.  MIXING DEPTH WITH THE SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED TO BE RATHER SHALLOW...AROUND 950 MB OR MAYBE A LITTLE
HIGHER.  THIS WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S AND WINDS GUSTING TO
15-20 KNOTS.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
INITIALLY FALL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. BUT MOISTURE
FIELDS SUGGEST SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY LOW
CLOUDS MOVING UP FROM THE OCEAN TOWARD CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
FORECAST TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH 14-23 EXCEPT 24-30
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
WARM FRONT SWEEPS NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OFFSHORE. THE COMBINATION SUGGESTS A WARMING TREND OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH A 12C INCREASED IN TEMPS ALOFT BETWEEN SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE WARM FRONT WILL BRING VARIABLE SKY COVER...AS NOTED BY
RH FIELDS ALOFT IN THE MODELS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 925 MB INCREASE
TO 30 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND 30-40 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. EXPECT SOME GUSTINESS TO OUR SURFACE WINDS EACH DAY. BUT
LOW-LEVEL MIXING WILL BE LESS THAN IDEAL EACH DAY WITH BETTER
MIXING SATURDAY AND LESS SUNDAY.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE IN THE ZONAL FLOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND EITHER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. TIMING OF
THE SHORTWAVE IN A ZONAL FLOW THIS FAR OUT IS IN QUESTION BUT THAT/S
OUR BEST SHOT AT THIS TIME. LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT TOGETHER WITH
FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS FROM A 125 KNOT JET...SO WE HAVE CHANCE POPS
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.  HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS DRY WEATHER FOR
THE REST OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS UP TO 09Z THEN CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO DETERIORATE FROM VFR TO IFR.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...COASTAL STORM ANTICIPATED.
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION SNOWS OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS IMMEDIATELY
W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. +SN POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY BDL-ORH AND
POSSIBLY FOR A TIME AT BOS AROUND 18Z THU. STRONG NE WINDS UP TO
45 KT AT HYA AND ACK AROUND 00Z THU.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

THURSDAY...MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. DIMINISHING
NORTHWEST WINDS.

FRIDAY...VFR WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 15-20 KNOTS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...INCREASING SKY COVER BUT MAINLY VFR. LOW POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR CIGS MOVING NORTH OFF THE OCEAN INTO CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.
INCREASING WINDS AT 2000 FEET...REACHING SOUTHWEST 35-40
KNOTS...WITH LIGHTER SOUTHWEST WINDS AT SURFACE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...THE LULL BEFORE THE STORM. SW WINDS DIMINISH AS THEY
VEER DURING THE NIGHT. SEAS REMAIN NEAR 5 FT.

WED INTO WED NIGHT...

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED TO PASS AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK 00Z THU.
HIGH PROB OF NE GALES WITH A LOW RISK OF STORM FORCE GUSTS 21Z
WED TO 06Z THU. HEAVY RAIN LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT
TIMES. GALE WARNING IS OUT WITH HIGH END GUSTS ANTICIPATE. CANT
RULE OUT A FEW STORM FORCE GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY... NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS IN THE MORNING BUT
DIMINISHING. SEAS START THE DAY 5 TO 11 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS
AND SUBSIDE TO 5 TO 6 FEET BY THE END OF THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED ON MOST WATERS.

FRIDAY... LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL GUST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ON
SOME OF THE WATERS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY... SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.  A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MAZ002>006-008>012-026.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     MAZ019-022>024.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MAZ007-013>016.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     RIZ008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR RIZ001>003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 252110
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
410 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG NOREASTER WILL MOVE CLOSE TO THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THIS WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW...WIND AND COASTAL ISSUES.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FOR THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE OVER THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
OR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 4 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

400 PM UPDATE...

DRY AIR HAS MOVED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE DRY
WEATHER WILL MOSTLY PREVAIL. A FEW RADAR ECHOES ARE SKIRTING CLOSE
TO THE ISLANDS...BUT BELIEVE THAT THE MID-LEVELS ARE DRY ENOUGH THAT
VIRGA MAY FALL OUT. OTHERWISE HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S WILL BEGIN
TO DROP THIS EVENING. CLOUDS COVER CONTINUES TO BE PERSISENT AND
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

TONIGHT...

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS IS DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE THE CAROLINA COAST.
EXPECT A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION TO REMAIN DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT...UNTIL PRECIP WILL BLOSSOM FROM SOUTH TO NORTH NEAR
09Z.

NOT A LOT OF COOL AIR ALOFT SO OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD AS
CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT DIURNAL RADIATION. LOW OVERNIGHT WILL DROP IN
THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. HOWEVER ONCE PRECIP MOVES INTO THE
REGION...AND DEPENDING ON INTENSITY TEMPS MAY WET BULB AND DROP AT
OR BELOW FREEZING.

HAVE NOTICED THAT THIS SYSTEM IS SPEEDING UP SO THE MORNING COMMUTE
MAY BE IMPACT FOR CT AND RI TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /4 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT...

*** EARLY SEASON WINTER STORM TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION WED/WED
  NIGHT ***

IMPACTS...

* HEAVY SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR IMPACTING WED TRAVEL
* GUSTY WINDS ACROSS COASTAL PLYMOUTH CO AND THE ISLANDS
* STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS
* MINOR BEACH EROSION AND SPLASHOVER FOR THE THURS AM HIGH TIDE

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THIS HAS ALLOWED A GOOD PLUME OF MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...TAPPING IN TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM BOTH THE GULF AS WELL
AS THE BAHAMAS. FROM THIS SHORTWAVE...A WEAK WAVE WILL DEVELOP AND
GENERATE A SURFACE LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS LOW WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST AND DEVELOP AN EARLY SEASON
NOR`EASTER FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS A VERY QUICK SYSTEM DUE
TO THE LACK OF BLOCKING UPSTREAM. SURFACE LOW IS STILL TRACKING NEAR
THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...WITH H85 CIRCULATION MOVING ACROSS CAPE COD
AND H7 LOW DEVELOPING AND TRACKING OVER BDL-MHT LINE. THIS SYSTEM
WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY WED NIGHT AND PRECIP SHOULD
BE WINDING DOWN BY DAY BREAK THURSDAY.

GUIDANCE...

GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS FOR THE 12Z SUITE. BIGGEST
THING IS THAT THE SYSTEM IS MOVING A FEW HOURS FASTER THEN
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE LARGER-SCALE FEATURES INCLUDING
THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH...DIFFERENCES IN THE
DETAILS REMAIN. APPEARS THAT THERE IS A 700 MB WARM-AIR
INTRUSION/DRY SLOT IMPENDING UP NARRAGANSETT BAY AND UP INTO NORFOLK
CO. NOTED THAT THE NAM/CMC WHERE THE COLDER SOLUTIONS COMPARED TO
THE GFS/EC/SREF AND UKMET WHICH WERE SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THEIR TEMPS
ALOFT. BECAUSE OF THIS GOOD CLUSTERING TRENDED THE FORECAST WITH THE
GFS/EC/WPC IN TERMS OF THICKNESS AND QPF.

PTYPE AND SNOWFALL...

TRICKIEST PART OF THE FORECAST WAS DETERMINING SNOWFALL ACCUMS AND P-
TYPES. BIGGEST REASON IS THE 700 MB WARM LAYER MOVING INTO THE
REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR
NORTHWARD THIS WARM LAYER MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COULD PLAY
ISSUES ON THE TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS. RIGHT NOW APPEARS THAT THIS WARM
LAYER WILL MOVE INTO WELL INTO RI AND NORFOLK CO AND POINTS SOUTH
AND EAST KEEPING BOSTON RIGHT ON THE FRINGE OF SUB-ZERO THERMAL
PROFILE. AND WITH 925 MB TEMPS BELOW 0C WEST OF THE CANAL BELIEVE
SLEET/WINTRY MIX WILL BE INTRODUCED. HOWEVER THE 18Z NAM CAME IN A
LOT WARMER AT THE 700MB LEVEL...IF THIS TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE THIS SNOW TOTALS WILL BE TO HIGH. LASTLY A
COASTAL FRONT WILL ALSO SET UP SOMEWHERE ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR WHERE IT DECIDES TO DEVELOP.

AT THE ONSET...BECAUSE OF BOUNDARY LAYER TEMP ISSUES BELIEVE RAIN
WILL START OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...NEAR DAY BREAK. AS PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE
REGION AND THERMAL FIELDS ALOFT TIGHTEN...EXPECT A GOOD BANDING
SIGNATURE TO DEVELOP...NEAR BDL TO ORH TO BED AT AROUND 15/18Z.
PRECIP INTENSITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BAND SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW ALONG WITH SNOW RATES OF 1-2" PER HOUR.
DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS BELIEVE THAT A COASTAL FRONT WILL SET
UP AND KEEP MOST OF THE COASTAL REGION IN RAIN RATHER THAN SNOW.
HOWEVER AS THE SURFACE WINDS BACK TO A NNE DIRECTION AS WELL EXPECT
MORE LOW LEVEL COOLING WHICH WILL KEEP PRECIP TO ALL SNOW FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE REGION...EXPECT ALONG THE 95 CORRIDOR WHERE A WINTRY
MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/RAIN IS POSSIBLE. THE FRONTAL BAND WILL ALSO
SWITCH TO A MORE NNE ASSOCIATION AS THE THERMAL FIELDS GET BACKED
FROM THE MID-LEVEL WARM AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL PUSH
THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL OVER THE BERKS AND SOUTHERN NH. FINALLY AS THE
STORM EXITS OUT...A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR ALL PRECIP TO
SWITCH TO SNOW AND ALLOW FOR A QUICK COUPLE OF INCHES OF
ACCUMULATIONS.

OVERALL HAVE EXPANDED THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER WARNINGS TO ALL OF
SOUTHERN NH...AND MOST OF MASS MINUS THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND NORTHERN
CT. DECIDED TO GO WITH ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF RI UP TO COASTAL
ESSEX INCLUDING THE CITIES OF PROVIDENCE AND BOSTON. ALTHOUGH
AMOUNTS ARE UNDER ADVISORY FOR THE METRO REGIONS...BECAUSE OF THE
HIGH IMPACT THIS EVENT CAN HAVE ON THE PRE-THANKSGIVING TRAVEL FELT
THE ADVISORY WAS WARRANTED. ALSO WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE
OR IF TEMPS DROP JUST A DEGREE...ACCUMULATIONS COULD ADD UP. FOR NOW
BELIEVE THAT AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE BUT ANOTHER COUPLE
OF INCHES OF SLEET CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

WINDS...

A STRONG LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST JET WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF
RI AND MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS WED AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODELS PROJECTING 45-50 KT JET AT 925 MB. THIS
COUPLED WITH STRONG PRES FALLS AND RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WATERS
PROVIDING A WELL MIXED BLYR WILL YIELD A MODERATE RISK OF 50 MPH
WIND GUSTS FROM SOUTH COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY/CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. TIMING OF STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR 4 PM WED TIL 11 AM THU.
BECAUSE THE JET DYNAMIC DOES NOT SEEM AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS RUNS
HAVE DROPPED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A STRONG WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS
AREA. IF THE COASTAL SYSTEM DOES DEEPEN MORE THEN FORECASTED...AND
THE LLJ DOES STRENGTHEN THEN A HIGH WIND WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

COASTAL FLOODING...

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET ARE EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS VERY QUICK SO THE POTENTIAL FOR A
LONG DURATION EASTERLY FETCH TO BUILD THE SEAS IS LOW. EVEN THE
DURATION OF ONSHORE WINDS ARE SHORT PLUS WITH PRESSURES BEGINNING TO
RISE TOWARD HIGH TIDE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY COASTAL FLOOD ISSUES
INCLUDING EROSION. WORSE CAST...COULD SEE A SURGE NEAR 1.5 FEET
WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME SPLASHOVER AND MINOR BEACH EROSION FOR TYPICAL
PRONE AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES UP THE COAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY. NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY. THE FLOW THEN TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON 500 MB HEIGHTS THROUGH
MONDAY AND THEN SMALL DIVERGENCE TUESDAY. THE GFS IS FASTER/FARTHER
EAST WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSING CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND. BUT THE
MODELS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IN NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MAINTAINS AT LEAST MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DIMINISHING CONFIDENCE BY
NEXT TUESDAY/DAY SEVEN.

THE DAILIES...

THANKSGIVING DAY... SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH TRAILS THE
WEDNESDAY STORM...AND MOVES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
DAY. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A DEEP SUPPLY
OF HIGH-RH AIR AND SOME WEAK LIFT AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.  WE WILL EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDS AS WELL AS A CHANCE OF PCPN.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS INLAND AND
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS IN RI/SOUTHEAST MASS. TEMPERATURE PROFILES
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S...EXCEPT LOWER 40S CAPE AND ISLANDS.

WE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE
20S EXCEPT LOWER 30S CAPE AND ISLANDS. ANY WET SURFACES FROM THE
DAYTIME WILL REFREEZE IN MOST LOCATIONS RESULTING IN TRICKY POST-
MEAL TRAVEL ON ANY UNTREATED SURFACES.

FRIDAY... NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE RACES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND IN THE
MORNING WITH LINGERING AIRMASS MOISTURE BUT WEAK LIFT IF ANY. THIS
COULD HOLD THE CLOUDS IN A LITTLE LONGER FRIDAY MORNING.  BUT IT
MOVES OUT QUICKLY AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SO THE TREND
WILL BE FOR CLEARING SKIES.  MIXING DEPTH WITH THE SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED TO BE RATHER SHALLOW...AROUND 950 MB OR MAYBE A LITTLE
HIGHER.  THIS WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S AND WINDS GUSTING TO
15-20 KNOTS.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
INITIALLY FALL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. BUT MOISTURE
FIELDS SUGGEST SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY LOW
CLOUDS MOVING UP FROM THE OCEAN TOWARD CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
FORECAST TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH 14-23 EXCEPT 24-30
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
WARM FRONT SWEEPS NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OFFSHORE. THE COMBINATION SUGGESTS A WARMING TREND OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH A 12C INCREASED IN TEMPS ALOFT BETWEEN SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE WARM FRONT WILL BRING VARIABLE SKY COVER...AS NOTED BY
RH FIELDS ALOFT IN THE MODELS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 925 MB INCREASE
TO 30 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND 30-40 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. EXPECT SOME GUSTINESS TO OUR SURFACE WINDS EACH DAY. BUT
LOW-LEVEL MIXING WILL BE LESS THAN IDEAL EACH DAY WITH BETTER
MIXING SATURDAY AND LESS SUNDAY.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE IN THE ZONAL FLOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND EITHER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. TIMING OF
THE SHORTWAVE IN A ZONAL FLOW THIS FAR OUT IS IN QUESTION BUT THAT/S
OUR BEST SHOT AT THIS TIME. LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT TOGETHER WITH
FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS FROM A 125 KNOT JET...SO WE HAVE CHANCE POPS
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.  HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS DRY WEATHER FOR
THE REST OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT THROUGH MIDDAY ALONG S
COAST.

TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS UP TO 09Z THEN CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO DETERIORATE FROM VFR TO IFR.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...COASTAL STORM ANTICIPATED.
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION SNOWS OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS IMMEDIATELY
W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. +SN POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY BDL-ORH AND
POSSIBLY FOR A TIME AT BOS AROUND 18Z THU. STRONG NE WINDS UP TO
45 KT AT HYA AND ACK AROUND 00Z THU.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

THURSDAY...MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. DIMINISHING
NORTHWEST WINDS.

FRIDAY...VFR WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 15-20 KNOTS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...INCREASING SKY COVER BUT MAINLY VFR. LOW POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR CIGS MOVING NORTH OFF THE OCEAN INTO CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.
INCREASING WINDS AT 2000 FEET...REACHING SOUTHWEST 35-40
KNOTS...WITH LIGHTER SOUTHWEST WINDS AT SURFACE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...THE LULL BEFORE THE STORM. SW WINDS DIMINISH AS THEY
VEER DURING THE NIGHT. SEAS REMAIN NEAR 5 FT.

WED INTO WED NIGHT...

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED TO PASS AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK 00Z THU.
HIGH PROB OF NE GALES WITH A LOW RISK OF STORM FORCE GUSTS 21Z
WED TO 06Z THU. HEAVY RAIN LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT
TIMES. GALE WARNING IS OUT WITH HIGH END GUSTS ANTICIPATE. CANT
RULE OUT A FEW STORM FORCE GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY... NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS IN THE MORNING BUT
DIMINISHING. SEAS START THE DAY 5 TO 11 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS
AND SUBSIDE TO 5 TO 6 FEET BY THE END OF THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED ON MOST WATERS.

FRIDAY... LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL GUST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ON
SOME OF THE WATERS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY... SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.  A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MAZ002>006-008>012-026.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     MAZ019-022>024.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MAZ007-013>016.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     RIZ008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR RIZ001>003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-255-256.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 252110
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
410 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG NOREASTER WILL MOVE CLOSE TO THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THIS WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW...WIND AND COASTAL ISSUES.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FOR THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE OVER THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
OR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 4 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

400 PM UPDATE...

DRY AIR HAS MOVED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE DRY
WEATHER WILL MOSTLY PREVAIL. A FEW RADAR ECHOES ARE SKIRTING CLOSE
TO THE ISLANDS...BUT BELIEVE THAT THE MID-LEVELS ARE DRY ENOUGH THAT
VIRGA MAY FALL OUT. OTHERWISE HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S WILL BEGIN
TO DROP THIS EVENING. CLOUDS COVER CONTINUES TO BE PERSISENT AND
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

TONIGHT...

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS IS DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE THE CAROLINA COAST.
EXPECT A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION TO REMAIN DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT...UNTIL PRECIP WILL BLOSSOM FROM SOUTH TO NORTH NEAR
09Z.

NOT A LOT OF COOL AIR ALOFT SO OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD AS
CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT DIURNAL RADIATION. LOW OVERNIGHT WILL DROP IN
THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. HOWEVER ONCE PRECIP MOVES INTO THE
REGION...AND DEPENDING ON INTENSITY TEMPS MAY WET BULB AND DROP AT
OR BELOW FREEZING.

HAVE NOTICED THAT THIS SYSTEM IS SPEEDING UP SO THE MORNING COMMUTE
MAY BE IMPACT FOR CT AND RI TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /4 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT...

*** EARLY SEASON WINTER STORM TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION WED/WED
  NIGHT ***

IMPACTS...

* HEAVY SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR IMPACTING WED TRAVEL
* GUSTY WINDS ACROSS COASTAL PLYMOUTH CO AND THE ISLANDS
* STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS
* MINOR BEACH EROSION AND SPLASHOVER FOR THE THURS AM HIGH TIDE

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THIS HAS ALLOWED A GOOD PLUME OF MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...TAPPING IN TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM BOTH THE GULF AS WELL
AS THE BAHAMAS. FROM THIS SHORTWAVE...A WEAK WAVE WILL DEVELOP AND
GENERATE A SURFACE LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS LOW WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST AND DEVELOP AN EARLY SEASON
NOR`EASTER FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS A VERY QUICK SYSTEM DUE
TO THE LACK OF BLOCKING UPSTREAM. SURFACE LOW IS STILL TRACKING NEAR
THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...WITH H85 CIRCULATION MOVING ACROSS CAPE COD
AND H7 LOW DEVELOPING AND TRACKING OVER BDL-MHT LINE. THIS SYSTEM
WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY WED NIGHT AND PRECIP SHOULD
BE WINDING DOWN BY DAY BREAK THURSDAY.

GUIDANCE...

GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS FOR THE 12Z SUITE. BIGGEST
THING IS THAT THE SYSTEM IS MOVING A FEW HOURS FASTER THEN
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE LARGER-SCALE FEATURES INCLUDING
THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH...DIFFERENCES IN THE
DETAILS REMAIN. APPEARS THAT THERE IS A 700 MB WARM-AIR
INTRUSION/DRY SLOT IMPENDING UP NARRAGANSETT BAY AND UP INTO NORFOLK
CO. NOTED THAT THE NAM/CMC WHERE THE COLDER SOLUTIONS COMPARED TO
THE GFS/EC/SREF AND UKMET WHICH WERE SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THEIR TEMPS
ALOFT. BECAUSE OF THIS GOOD CLUSTERING TRENDED THE FORECAST WITH THE
GFS/EC/WPC IN TERMS OF THICKNESS AND QPF.

PTYPE AND SNOWFALL...

TRICKIEST PART OF THE FORECAST WAS DETERMINING SNOWFALL ACCUMS AND P-
TYPES. BIGGEST REASON IS THE 700 MB WARM LAYER MOVING INTO THE
REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR
NORTHWARD THIS WARM LAYER MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COULD PLAY
ISSUES ON THE TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS. RIGHT NOW APPEARS THAT THIS WARM
LAYER WILL MOVE INTO WELL INTO RI AND NORFOLK CO AND POINTS SOUTH
AND EAST KEEPING BOSTON RIGHT ON THE FRINGE OF SUB-ZERO THERMAL
PROFILE. AND WITH 925 MB TEMPS BELOW 0C WEST OF THE CANAL BELIEVE
SLEET/WINTRY MIX WILL BE INTRODUCED. HOWEVER THE 18Z NAM CAME IN A
LOT WARMER AT THE 700MB LEVEL...IF THIS TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE THIS SNOW TOTALS WILL BE TO HIGH. LASTLY A
COASTAL FRONT WILL ALSO SET UP SOMEWHERE ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR WHERE IT DECIDES TO DEVELOP.

AT THE ONSET...BECAUSE OF BOUNDARY LAYER TEMP ISSUES BELIEVE RAIN
WILL START OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...NEAR DAY BREAK. AS PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE
REGION AND THERMAL FIELDS ALOFT TIGHTEN...EXPECT A GOOD BANDING
SIGNATURE TO DEVELOP...NEAR BDL TO ORH TO BED AT AROUND 15/18Z.
PRECIP INTENSITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BAND SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW ALONG WITH SNOW RATES OF 1-2" PER HOUR.
DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS BELIEVE THAT A COASTAL FRONT WILL SET
UP AND KEEP MOST OF THE COASTAL REGION IN RAIN RATHER THAN SNOW.
HOWEVER AS THE SURFACE WINDS BACK TO A NNE DIRECTION AS WELL EXPECT
MORE LOW LEVEL COOLING WHICH WILL KEEP PRECIP TO ALL SNOW FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE REGION...EXPECT ALONG THE 95 CORRIDOR WHERE A WINTRY
MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/RAIN IS POSSIBLE. THE FRONTAL BAND WILL ALSO
SWITCH TO A MORE NNE ASSOCIATION AS THE THERMAL FIELDS GET BACKED
FROM THE MID-LEVEL WARM AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL PUSH
THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL OVER THE BERKS AND SOUTHERN NH. FINALLY AS THE
STORM EXITS OUT...A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR ALL PRECIP TO
SWITCH TO SNOW AND ALLOW FOR A QUICK COUPLE OF INCHES OF
ACCUMULATIONS.

OVERALL HAVE EXPANDED THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER WARNINGS TO ALL OF
SOUTHERN NH...AND MOST OF MASS MINUS THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND NORTHERN
CT. DECIDED TO GO WITH ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF RI UP TO COASTAL
ESSEX INCLUDING THE CITIES OF PROVIDENCE AND BOSTON. ALTHOUGH
AMOUNTS ARE UNDER ADVISORY FOR THE METRO REGIONS...BECAUSE OF THE
HIGH IMPACT THIS EVENT CAN HAVE ON THE PRE-THANKSGIVING TRAVEL FELT
THE ADVISORY WAS WARRANTED. ALSO WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE
OR IF TEMPS DROP JUST A DEGREE...ACCUMULATIONS COULD ADD UP. FOR NOW
BELIEVE THAT AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE BUT ANOTHER COUPLE
OF INCHES OF SLEET CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

WINDS...

A STRONG LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST JET WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF
RI AND MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS WED AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODELS PROJECTING 45-50 KT JET AT 925 MB. THIS
COUPLED WITH STRONG PRES FALLS AND RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WATERS
PROVIDING A WELL MIXED BLYR WILL YIELD A MODERATE RISK OF 50 MPH
WIND GUSTS FROM SOUTH COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY/CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. TIMING OF STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR 4 PM WED TIL 11 AM THU.
BECAUSE THE JET DYNAMIC DOES NOT SEEM AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS RUNS
HAVE DROPPED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A STRONG WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS
AREA. IF THE COASTAL SYSTEM DOES DEEPEN MORE THEN FORECASTED...AND
THE LLJ DOES STRENGTHEN THEN A HIGH WIND WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

COASTAL FLOODING...

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET ARE EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS VERY QUICK SO THE POTENTIAL FOR A
LONG DURATION EASTERLY FETCH TO BUILD THE SEAS IS LOW. EVEN THE
DURATION OF ONSHORE WINDS ARE SHORT PLUS WITH PRESSURES BEGINNING TO
RISE TOWARD HIGH TIDE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY COASTAL FLOOD ISSUES
INCLUDING EROSION. WORSE CAST...COULD SEE A SURGE NEAR 1.5 FEET
WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME SPLASHOVER AND MINOR BEACH EROSION FOR TYPICAL
PRONE AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES UP THE COAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY. NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY. THE FLOW THEN TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON 500 MB HEIGHTS THROUGH
MONDAY AND THEN SMALL DIVERGENCE TUESDAY. THE GFS IS FASTER/FARTHER
EAST WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSING CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND. BUT THE
MODELS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IN NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MAINTAINS AT LEAST MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DIMINISHING CONFIDENCE BY
NEXT TUESDAY/DAY SEVEN.

THE DAILIES...

THANKSGIVING DAY... SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH TRAILS THE
WEDNESDAY STORM...AND MOVES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
DAY. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A DEEP SUPPLY
OF HIGH-RH AIR AND SOME WEAK LIFT AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.  WE WILL EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDS AS WELL AS A CHANCE OF PCPN.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS INLAND AND
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS IN RI/SOUTHEAST MASS. TEMPERATURE PROFILES
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S...EXCEPT LOWER 40S CAPE AND ISLANDS.

WE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE
20S EXCEPT LOWER 30S CAPE AND ISLANDS. ANY WET SURFACES FROM THE
DAYTIME WILL REFREEZE IN MOST LOCATIONS RESULTING IN TRICKY POST-
MEAL TRAVEL ON ANY UNTREATED SURFACES.

FRIDAY... NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE RACES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND IN THE
MORNING WITH LINGERING AIRMASS MOISTURE BUT WEAK LIFT IF ANY. THIS
COULD HOLD THE CLOUDS IN A LITTLE LONGER FRIDAY MORNING.  BUT IT
MOVES OUT QUICKLY AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SO THE TREND
WILL BE FOR CLEARING SKIES.  MIXING DEPTH WITH THE SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED TO BE RATHER SHALLOW...AROUND 950 MB OR MAYBE A LITTLE
HIGHER.  THIS WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S AND WINDS GUSTING TO
15-20 KNOTS.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
INITIALLY FALL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. BUT MOISTURE
FIELDS SUGGEST SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY LOW
CLOUDS MOVING UP FROM THE OCEAN TOWARD CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
FORECAST TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH 14-23 EXCEPT 24-30
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
WARM FRONT SWEEPS NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OFFSHORE. THE COMBINATION SUGGESTS A WARMING TREND OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH A 12C INCREASED IN TEMPS ALOFT BETWEEN SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE WARM FRONT WILL BRING VARIABLE SKY COVER...AS NOTED BY
RH FIELDS ALOFT IN THE MODELS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 925 MB INCREASE
TO 30 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND 30-40 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. EXPECT SOME GUSTINESS TO OUR SURFACE WINDS EACH DAY. BUT
LOW-LEVEL MIXING WILL BE LESS THAN IDEAL EACH DAY WITH BETTER
MIXING SATURDAY AND LESS SUNDAY.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE IN THE ZONAL FLOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND EITHER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. TIMING OF
THE SHORTWAVE IN A ZONAL FLOW THIS FAR OUT IS IN QUESTION BUT THAT/S
OUR BEST SHOT AT THIS TIME. LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT TOGETHER WITH
FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS FROM A 125 KNOT JET...SO WE HAVE CHANCE POPS
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.  HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS DRY WEATHER FOR
THE REST OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT THROUGH MIDDAY ALONG S
COAST.

TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS UP TO 09Z THEN CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO DETERIORATE FROM VFR TO IFR.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...COASTAL STORM ANTICIPATED.
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION SNOWS OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS IMMEDIATELY
W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. +SN POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY BDL-ORH AND
POSSIBLY FOR A TIME AT BOS AROUND 18Z THU. STRONG NE WINDS UP TO
45 KT AT HYA AND ACK AROUND 00Z THU.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

THURSDAY...MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. DIMINISHING
NORTHWEST WINDS.

FRIDAY...VFR WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 15-20 KNOTS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...INCREASING SKY COVER BUT MAINLY VFR. LOW POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR CIGS MOVING NORTH OFF THE OCEAN INTO CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.
INCREASING WINDS AT 2000 FEET...REACHING SOUTHWEST 35-40
KNOTS...WITH LIGHTER SOUTHWEST WINDS AT SURFACE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...THE LULL BEFORE THE STORM. SW WINDS DIMINISH AS THEY
VEER DURING THE NIGHT. SEAS REMAIN NEAR 5 FT.

WED INTO WED NIGHT...

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED TO PASS AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK 00Z THU.
HIGH PROB OF NE GALES WITH A LOW RISK OF STORM FORCE GUSTS 21Z
WED TO 06Z THU. HEAVY RAIN LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT
TIMES. GALE WARNING IS OUT WITH HIGH END GUSTS ANTICIPATE. CANT
RULE OUT A FEW STORM FORCE GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY... NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS IN THE MORNING BUT
DIMINISHING. SEAS START THE DAY 5 TO 11 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS
AND SUBSIDE TO 5 TO 6 FEET BY THE END OF THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED ON MOST WATERS.

FRIDAY... LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL GUST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ON
SOME OF THE WATERS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY... SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.  A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MAZ002>006-008>012-026.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     MAZ019-022>024.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MAZ007-013>016.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     RIZ008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR RIZ001>003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-255-256.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 252035
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
335 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A QUIET AND MILD DAY WITH SOME GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS INTO THE AFTERNOON. A WINTER STORM IS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVES
OFF THROUGH THE MARITIMES THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT
SWINGS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA AND
IS ACROSS THE CANAL RIGHT NOW. DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED
SIGNIFICANTLY...AS THEY WERE IN THE 50F EARLIER AND NOT HAVE
DROPPED TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS OF NEAR
20 MPH HAD BEEN OBSERVED THROUGH THE OBS AS MIXING CONTINUES.
SURFACE TEMPS ARE STILL HOLDING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
ANY LINGERING FOG ACROSS THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS WILL BE SWEPT
OFFSHORE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE SKIES TODAY THANKS TO ADVECTING
TROPICAL MOISTURE...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BE OUR STORMS MOISTURE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE AS LIGHT W WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO N.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRES TAKES SHAPE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE
TONIGHT. WILL SEE PRECIP BLOSSOM S OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...AND
WILL PUSH INTO S COASTAL AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND QUICKLY SHIFT N
BY DAYBREAK. AS TEMPS FALL BACK CLOSE TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
WELL INLAND...WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW GENERALLY FROM
THE WORCESTER HILLS INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF N CENTRAL CT
WESTWARD. QPF DURING THIS TIME IS RATHER LIGHT...BUT COULD BE
ENOUGH WELL INLAND TO CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS DURING THE MORNING
COMMUTE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

BIG PICTURE...
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES UP THE COAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY. NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY. THE FLOW THEN TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON 500 MB HEIGHTS THROUGH
MONDAY AND THEN SMALL DIVERGENCE TUESDAY. THE GFS IS FASTER/FARTHER
EAST WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSING CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND. BUT THE
MODELS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IN NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MAINTAINS AT LEAST MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DIMINISHING CONFIDENCE BY
NEXT TUESDAY/DAY SEVEN.

THE DAILIES...

THANKSGIVING DAY... SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH TRAILS THE
WEDNESDAY STORM...AND MOVES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
DAY. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A DEEP SUPPLY
OF HIGH-RH AIR AND SOME WEAK LIFT AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.  WE WILL EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDS AS WELL AS A CHANCE OF PCPN.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS INLAND AND
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS IN RI/SOUTHEAST MASS. TEMPERATURE PROFILES
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S...EXCEPT LOWER 40S CAPE AND ISLANDS.

WE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDENCE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 20S
EXCEPT LOWER 30S CAPE AND ISLANDS.  ANY WET SURFACES FROM THE
DAYTIME WILL REFREEZE IN MOST LOCATIONS RESULTING IN TRICKY POST-
MEAL TRAVEL ON ANY UNTREATED SURFACES.

FRIDAY... NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE RACES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND IN THE
MORNING WITH LINGERING AIRMASS MOISTURE BUT WEAK LIFT IF ANY. THIS
COULD HOLD THE CLOUDS IN A LITTLE LONGER FRIDAY MORNING.  BUT IT
MOVES OUT QUICKLY AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SO THE TREND
WILL BE FOR CLEARING SKIES.  MIXING DEPTH WITH THE SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED TO BE RATHER SHALLOW...AROUND 950 MB OR MAYBE A LITTLE
HIGHER.  THIS WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S AND WINDS GUSTING TO
15-20 KNOTS.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
INITIALLY FALL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. BUT MOISTURE
FIELDS SUGGEST SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY LOW
CLOUDS MOVING UP FROM THE OCEAN TOWARD CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
FORECAST TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO GUIDENCE WITH 14-23 EXCEPT 24-30 ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
WARM FRONT SWEEPS NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OFFSHORE. THE COMBINATION SUGGESTS A WARMING TREND OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH A 12C INCREASED IN TEMPS ALOFT BETWEEN SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE WARM FRONT WILL BRING VARIABLE SKY COVER...AS NOTED BY
RH FIELDS ALOFT IN THE MODELS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 925 MB INCREASE
TO 30 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND 30-40 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. EXPECT SOME GUSTINESS TO OUR SURFACE WINDS EACH DAY. BUT
LOW-LEVEL MIXING WILL BE LESS THAN IDEAL EACH DAY WITH BETTER
MIXING SATURDAY AND LESS SUNDAY.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE IN THE ZONAL FLOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND EITHER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. TIMING OF
THE SHORTWAVE IN A ZONAL FLOW THIS FAR OUT IS IN QUESTION BUT THAT/S
OUR BEST SHOT AT THIS TIME. LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT TOGETHER WITH
FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS FROM A 125 KNOT JET...SO WE HAVE CHANCE POPS
FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.  HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS DRY WEATHER FOR
THE REST OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR CIGS AOA 10KFT. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT THROUGH
MIDDAY ALONG S COAST.

TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS UP TO 09Z THEN CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO DETERIORATE FROM VFR TO IFR.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...COASTAL STORM ANTICIPATED.
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION SNOWS OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS IMMEDIATELY
W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. +SN POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY BDL-ORH AND
POSSIBLY FOR A TIME AT BOS AROUND 18Z THU. STRONG NE WINDS UP TO
45 KT AT HYA AND ACK AROUND 00Z THU.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE

THURSDAY...MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. DIMINISHING
NORTHWEST WINDS.

FRIDAY...VFR WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 15-20 KNOTS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...INCREASING SKY COVER BUT MAINLY VFR. LOW POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR CIGS MOVING NORTH OFF THE OCEAN INTO CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.
INCREASING WINDS AT 2000 FEET...REACHING SOUTHWEST 35-40
KNOTS...WITH LIGHTER SOUTHWEST WINDS AT SURFACE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...WINDS/SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS MASS/IPSWICH BAYS TO
ALLOW SMALL CRAFT TO EXPIRE AT 09Z. CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS INTO RI/BI SOUNDS THROUGH THE DAY. SEAS
UP TO 11 FT ON THE OPEN WATERS ON SW WINDS GUSTING TO 25
KT...WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH BY EVENING.

TONIGHT...THE LULL BEFORE THE STORM. W WINDS DIMINISH AS THEY VEER
TO NW-N DURING THE NIGHT. SEAS ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS AND
DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS REMAIN AOA 5 FT. HOWEVER...AS
NE WINDS INCREASE DURING WED...GALE AND STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY... NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS IN THE MORNING BUT
DIMINISHING. SEAS START THE DAY 5 TO 11 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS
AND SUBSIDE TO 5 TO 6 FEET BY THE END OF THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED ON MOST WATERS.

FRIDAY... LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL GUST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ON
SOME OF THE WATERS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY... SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS.  A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MAZ002>006-008>012-026.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     MAZ019-022>024.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MAZ007-013>016.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     RIZ008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR RIZ001>003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-255-256.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 251721
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1221 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A QUIET AND MILD DAY WITH SOME GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS INTO THE AFTERNOON. A WINTER STORM IS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THANKSGIVING DAY. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA AND
IS ACROSS THE CANAL RIGHT NOW. DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED
SIGNIFICANTLY...AS THEY WERE IN THE 50F EARLIER AND NOT HAVE
DROPPED TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS OF NEAR
20 MPH HAD BEEN OBSERVED THROUGH THE OBS AS MIXING CONTINUES.
SURFACE TEMPS ARE STILL HOLDING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
ANY LINGERING FOG ACROSS THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS WILL BE SWEPT
OFFSHORE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE SKIES TODAY THANKS TO ADVECTING
TROPICAL MOISTURE...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BE OUR STORMS MOISTURE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE AS LIGHT W WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO N.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRES TAKES SHAPE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE
TONIGHT. WILL SEE PRECIP BLOSSOM S OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...AND
WILL PUSH INTO S COASTAL AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND QUICKLY SHIFT N
BY DAYBREAK. AS TEMPS FALL BACK CLOSE TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
WELL INLAND...WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW GENERALLY FROM
THE WORCESTER HILLS INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF N CENTRAL CT
WESTWARD. QPF DURING THIS TIME IS RATHER LIGHT...BUT COULD BE
ENOUGH WELL INLAND TO CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS DURING THE MORNING
COMMUTE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

*** EARLY SEASON WINTER STORM TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION WED/WED
  NIGHT ***

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

00Z MODEL SUITE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH SURFACE LOW
TRACKING OVER OR NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...WITH H85 CIRCULATION
MOVING ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS AND H7 LOW DEVELOPING AND
TRACKING OVER BDL-ORH-MHT LINE. 00Z ECMWF ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF
THE ENVELOPE AND 00Z GFS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUID ENVELOPE.
GIVEN EVENT IS STILL 42-48 HRS AWAY /MODEL TIME/ MODEL BLEND STILL
THE MOST SKILLFUL OPTION. THE TRACK MENTIONED ABOVE SUPPORTS
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWS NW OF I-95. THUS HAVE UPGRADED WINTER STORM
WATCHES TO WARNINGS FROM HARTFORD COUNTY NORTHWARD THRU THE I-91
CORRIDOR INTO CHESHIRE COUNTY OF NH AND EASTWARD INTO WORCESTER
COUNTY FOR A HIGH PROBABILITY OF 6+ INCHES.

PTYPE AND SNOWFALL...

WARM BOUNDARY LAYER EARLY WED WILL LEAD TO PRECIP BEGINNING AS RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT THE FAR INTERIOR. HOWEVER STRONG
FORCING FOR ASCENT AND INCREASING PRECIP INTENSITY /COPIOUS GULF AND
ATLC MSTR/ WILL YIELD COOLING VIA DYNAMICAL AND DIABATIC PROCESSES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WET BULB TEMPS BEING REACHED WITH RAIN CHANGING
OVER TO SNOW DURING WED AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
RAIN/SNOW LINE APPEARS TO SETUP SOMEWHERE OVER CENTRAL RI INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA. THESE BOUNDARIES ARE ALWAYS DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT ESPECIALLY AT THIS TIME RANGE. CRITICAL PROCESSES HERE WILL
BE STRONG MID LEVEL FGEN. AS OF NOW THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST STRONG
BANDING FEATURE 18Z WED - 00Z THU OVER CENTRAL CT/NORTHWEST RI
EXTENDING NORTHEAST THRU WORCESTER COUNTY AND INTO NORTHEAST MA
INCLUDING THE GREATER BOSTON AREA. PRECIP INTENSITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS BAND SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW ALONG
WITH SNOW RATES OF 1-2" PER HOUR. IN ADDITION...WITH SURFACE LOW
TRACKING VICINITY OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK COUPLED WITH STRONG PRES
FALLS...SURFACE WINDS OVER NORTHEAST MA INCLUDING BOSTON SHOULD BE
BACKING TO THE NNE. THIS WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL COOLING.
IDEALLY WOULD LIKE TO SEE A 1030+ MB HIGH OVER QUEBEC HELPING TO
WEDGE THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR DOWN THE COASTAL PLAIN FROM ME AND
NH...THERE IS A 1026 HIGH OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC 00Z THU. THIS
COMBINED WITH STRONG PRES FALLS JUST OFFSHORE SHOULD HELP A COASTAL
FRONT DEVELOP. ALL OF THESE FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE INCREASE THE
RISK FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW INTO THE RT-128 CORRIDOR OF EASTERN
MA INCLUDING THE GREATER BOSTON AREA. THUS HAVE EXPANDED THE WATCH
TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL.

OTHERWISE NOT MANY CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. GIVEN PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF SYSTEM...DRY SLOT AND NOT IDEAL SNOW-LIQUID-RATIOS /SLR/
MAX SNOWFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND A FOOT. HIGHEST RISK
WHERE EVER MESO SCALE BANDING SETS UP...WHICH RIGHT NOW APPEARS
SOMEWHERE FROM CENTRAL CT-WORCESTER COUNTY INTO NORTHEAST MA.
OBVIOUSLY THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE GIVEN EVENT IS STILL 42-48 HRS
AWAY.

WINDS...

STRONG LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST JET MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF RI
AND MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. MODELS PROJECTING 50-65
KT AT 925 MB. THIS COUPLED WITH STRONG PRES FALLS AND RELATIVELY
WARM OCEAN WATERS PROVIDING A WELL MIXED BLYR WILL YIELD A MODERATE
RISK OF 60 MPH WIND GUSTS FROM SOUTH COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY/CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS. TIMING OF STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR 4 PM WED TIL 1
AM THU. THUS HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THIS AREA. LATER
SHIFTS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO SURROUND THIS AREA WITH A WIND ADVISORY.

COASTAL FLOODING...

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. GIVEN SHORT DURATION OF ONSHORE WINDS AND PRESSURES
BEGINNING TO RISE TOWARD HIGH TIDE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY COASTAL
FLOOD ISSUES INCLUDING EROSION.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
WILL ROTATE AROUND BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER EASTERN STATES. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS FROM TIME TO TIME. WE
SHOULD SEE BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES SUN AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
NEXT MON. MAY SEE FEW SHOWERS WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR CIGS AOA 10KFT. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT THROUGH
MIDDAY ALONG S COAST.

TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS UP TO 09Z THEN CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO DETERIORATE FROM VFR TO IFR.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...COASTAL STORM ANTICIPATED.
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION SNOWS OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS IMMEDIATELY
W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. +SN POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY BDL-ORH AND
POSSIBLY FOR A TIME AT BOS AROUND 18Z THU. STRONG NE WINDS UP TO
45 KT AT HYA AND ACK AROUND 00Z THU.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THUS AND FRI...VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...WINDS/SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS MASS/IPSWICH BAYS TO
ALLOW SMALL CRAFT TO EXPIRE AT 09Z. CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS INTO RI/BI SOUNDS THROUGH THE DAY. SEAS
UP TO 11 FT ON THE OPEN WATERS ON SW WINDS GUSTING TO 25
KT...WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH BY EVENING.

TONIGHT...THE LULL BEFORE THE STORM. W WINDS DIMINISH AS THEY VEER
TO NW-N DURING THE NIGHT. SEAS ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS AND
DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS REMAIN AOA 5 FT. HOWEVER...AS
NE WINDS INCREASE DURING WED...GALE AND STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED TO PASS AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK 00Z THU.
HIGH PROB OF NE GALES WITH A LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF STORM FORCE
GUSTS 21Z WED TO 06Z THU. HEAVY RAIN LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST ON OUTER WATERS DUE TO 25KT GUSTS
AND 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR CTZ002.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ003-004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MAZ002>004-008>011.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MAZ019-022>024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-012>016-026.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NHZ011.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ012-015.
RI...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR RIZ008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ231>235-237-254>256.
     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ230-236-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 251721
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1221 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A QUIET AND MILD DAY WITH SOME GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS INTO THE AFTERNOON. A WINTER STORM IS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THANKSGIVING DAY. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA AND
IS ACROSS THE CANAL RIGHT NOW. DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED
SIGNIFICANTLY...AS THEY WERE IN THE 50F EARLIER AND NOT HAVE
DROPPED TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS OF NEAR
20 MPH HAD BEEN OBSERVED THROUGH THE OBS AS MIXING CONTINUES.
SURFACE TEMPS ARE STILL HOLDING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
ANY LINGERING FOG ACROSS THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS WILL BE SWEPT
OFFSHORE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE SKIES TODAY THANKS TO ADVECTING
TROPICAL MOISTURE...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BE OUR STORMS MOISTURE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE AS LIGHT W WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO N.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRES TAKES SHAPE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE
TONIGHT. WILL SEE PRECIP BLOSSOM S OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...AND
WILL PUSH INTO S COASTAL AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND QUICKLY SHIFT N
BY DAYBREAK. AS TEMPS FALL BACK CLOSE TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
WELL INLAND...WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW GENERALLY FROM
THE WORCESTER HILLS INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF N CENTRAL CT
WESTWARD. QPF DURING THIS TIME IS RATHER LIGHT...BUT COULD BE
ENOUGH WELL INLAND TO CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS DURING THE MORNING
COMMUTE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

*** EARLY SEASON WINTER STORM TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION WED/WED
  NIGHT ***

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

00Z MODEL SUITE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH SURFACE LOW
TRACKING OVER OR NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...WITH H85 CIRCULATION
MOVING ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS AND H7 LOW DEVELOPING AND
TRACKING OVER BDL-ORH-MHT LINE. 00Z ECMWF ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF
THE ENVELOPE AND 00Z GFS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUID ENVELOPE.
GIVEN EVENT IS STILL 42-48 HRS AWAY /MODEL TIME/ MODEL BLEND STILL
THE MOST SKILLFUL OPTION. THE TRACK MENTIONED ABOVE SUPPORTS
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWS NW OF I-95. THUS HAVE UPGRADED WINTER STORM
WATCHES TO WARNINGS FROM HARTFORD COUNTY NORTHWARD THRU THE I-91
CORRIDOR INTO CHESHIRE COUNTY OF NH AND EASTWARD INTO WORCESTER
COUNTY FOR A HIGH PROBABILITY OF 6+ INCHES.

PTYPE AND SNOWFALL...

WARM BOUNDARY LAYER EARLY WED WILL LEAD TO PRECIP BEGINNING AS RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT THE FAR INTERIOR. HOWEVER STRONG
FORCING FOR ASCENT AND INCREASING PRECIP INTENSITY /COPIOUS GULF AND
ATLC MSTR/ WILL YIELD COOLING VIA DYNAMICAL AND DIABATIC PROCESSES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WET BULB TEMPS BEING REACHED WITH RAIN CHANGING
OVER TO SNOW DURING WED AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
RAIN/SNOW LINE APPEARS TO SETUP SOMEWHERE OVER CENTRAL RI INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA. THESE BOUNDARIES ARE ALWAYS DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT ESPECIALLY AT THIS TIME RANGE. CRITICAL PROCESSES HERE WILL
BE STRONG MID LEVEL FGEN. AS OF NOW THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST STRONG
BANDING FEATURE 18Z WED - 00Z THU OVER CENTRAL CT/NORTHWEST RI
EXTENDING NORTHEAST THRU WORCESTER COUNTY AND INTO NORTHEAST MA
INCLUDING THE GREATER BOSTON AREA. PRECIP INTENSITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS BAND SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW ALONG
WITH SNOW RATES OF 1-2" PER HOUR. IN ADDITION...WITH SURFACE LOW
TRACKING VICINITY OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK COUPLED WITH STRONG PRES
FALLS...SURFACE WINDS OVER NORTHEAST MA INCLUDING BOSTON SHOULD BE
BACKING TO THE NNE. THIS WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL COOLING.
IDEALLY WOULD LIKE TO SEE A 1030+ MB HIGH OVER QUEBEC HELPING TO
WEDGE THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR DOWN THE COASTAL PLAIN FROM ME AND
NH...THERE IS A 1026 HIGH OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC 00Z THU. THIS
COMBINED WITH STRONG PRES FALLS JUST OFFSHORE SHOULD HELP A COASTAL
FRONT DEVELOP. ALL OF THESE FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE INCREASE THE
RISK FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW INTO THE RT-128 CORRIDOR OF EASTERN
MA INCLUDING THE GREATER BOSTON AREA. THUS HAVE EXPANDED THE WATCH
TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL.

OTHERWISE NOT MANY CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. GIVEN PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF SYSTEM...DRY SLOT AND NOT IDEAL SNOW-LIQUID-RATIOS /SLR/
MAX SNOWFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND A FOOT. HIGHEST RISK
WHERE EVER MESO SCALE BANDING SETS UP...WHICH RIGHT NOW APPEARS
SOMEWHERE FROM CENTRAL CT-WORCESTER COUNTY INTO NORTHEAST MA.
OBVIOUSLY THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE GIVEN EVENT IS STILL 42-48 HRS
AWAY.

WINDS...

STRONG LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST JET MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF RI
AND MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. MODELS PROJECTING 50-65
KT AT 925 MB. THIS COUPLED WITH STRONG PRES FALLS AND RELATIVELY
WARM OCEAN WATERS PROVIDING A WELL MIXED BLYR WILL YIELD A MODERATE
RISK OF 60 MPH WIND GUSTS FROM SOUTH COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY/CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS. TIMING OF STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR 4 PM WED TIL 1
AM THU. THUS HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THIS AREA. LATER
SHIFTS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO SURROUND THIS AREA WITH A WIND ADVISORY.

COASTAL FLOODING...

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. GIVEN SHORT DURATION OF ONSHORE WINDS AND PRESSURES
BEGINNING TO RISE TOWARD HIGH TIDE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY COASTAL
FLOOD ISSUES INCLUDING EROSION.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
WILL ROTATE AROUND BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER EASTERN STATES. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS FROM TIME TO TIME. WE
SHOULD SEE BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES SUN AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
NEXT MON. MAY SEE FEW SHOWERS WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR CIGS AOA 10KFT. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT THROUGH
MIDDAY ALONG S COAST.

TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS UP TO 09Z THEN CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO DETERIORATE FROM VFR TO IFR.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...COASTAL STORM ANTICIPATED.
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION SNOWS OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS IMMEDIATELY
W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. +SN POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY BDL-ORH AND
POSSIBLY FOR A TIME AT BOS AROUND 18Z THU. STRONG NE WINDS UP TO
45 KT AT HYA AND ACK AROUND 00Z THU.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THUS AND FRI...VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...WINDS/SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS MASS/IPSWICH BAYS TO
ALLOW SMALL CRAFT TO EXPIRE AT 09Z. CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS INTO RI/BI SOUNDS THROUGH THE DAY. SEAS
UP TO 11 FT ON THE OPEN WATERS ON SW WINDS GUSTING TO 25
KT...WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH BY EVENING.

TONIGHT...THE LULL BEFORE THE STORM. W WINDS DIMINISH AS THEY VEER
TO NW-N DURING THE NIGHT. SEAS ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS AND
DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS REMAIN AOA 5 FT. HOWEVER...AS
NE WINDS INCREASE DURING WED...GALE AND STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED TO PASS AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK 00Z THU.
HIGH PROB OF NE GALES WITH A LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF STORM FORCE
GUSTS 21Z WED TO 06Z THU. HEAVY RAIN LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST ON OUTER WATERS DUE TO 25KT GUSTS
AND 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR CTZ002.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ003-004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MAZ002>004-008>011.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MAZ019-022>024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-012>016-026.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NHZ011.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ012-015.
RI...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR RIZ008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ231>235-237-254>256.
     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ230-236-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 251721
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1221 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A QUIET AND MILD DAY WITH SOME GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS INTO THE AFTERNOON. A WINTER STORM IS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THANKSGIVING DAY. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA AND
IS ACROSS THE CANAL RIGHT NOW. DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED
SIGNIFICANTLY...AS THEY WERE IN THE 50F EARLIER AND NOT HAVE
DROPPED TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS OF NEAR
20 MPH HAD BEEN OBSERVED THROUGH THE OBS AS MIXING CONTINUES.
SURFACE TEMPS ARE STILL HOLDING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
ANY LINGERING FOG ACROSS THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS WILL BE SWEPT
OFFSHORE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE SKIES TODAY THANKS TO ADVECTING
TROPICAL MOISTURE...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BE OUR STORMS MOISTURE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE AS LIGHT W WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO N.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRES TAKES SHAPE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE
TONIGHT. WILL SEE PRECIP BLOSSOM S OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...AND
WILL PUSH INTO S COASTAL AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND QUICKLY SHIFT N
BY DAYBREAK. AS TEMPS FALL BACK CLOSE TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
WELL INLAND...WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW GENERALLY FROM
THE WORCESTER HILLS INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF N CENTRAL CT
WESTWARD. QPF DURING THIS TIME IS RATHER LIGHT...BUT COULD BE
ENOUGH WELL INLAND TO CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS DURING THE MORNING
COMMUTE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

*** EARLY SEASON WINTER STORM TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION WED/WED
  NIGHT ***

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

00Z MODEL SUITE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH SURFACE LOW
TRACKING OVER OR NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...WITH H85 CIRCULATION
MOVING ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS AND H7 LOW DEVELOPING AND
TRACKING OVER BDL-ORH-MHT LINE. 00Z ECMWF ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF
THE ENVELOPE AND 00Z GFS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUID ENVELOPE.
GIVEN EVENT IS STILL 42-48 HRS AWAY /MODEL TIME/ MODEL BLEND STILL
THE MOST SKILLFUL OPTION. THE TRACK MENTIONED ABOVE SUPPORTS
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWS NW OF I-95. THUS HAVE UPGRADED WINTER STORM
WATCHES TO WARNINGS FROM HARTFORD COUNTY NORTHWARD THRU THE I-91
CORRIDOR INTO CHESHIRE COUNTY OF NH AND EASTWARD INTO WORCESTER
COUNTY FOR A HIGH PROBABILITY OF 6+ INCHES.

PTYPE AND SNOWFALL...

WARM BOUNDARY LAYER EARLY WED WILL LEAD TO PRECIP BEGINNING AS RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT THE FAR INTERIOR. HOWEVER STRONG
FORCING FOR ASCENT AND INCREASING PRECIP INTENSITY /COPIOUS GULF AND
ATLC MSTR/ WILL YIELD COOLING VIA DYNAMICAL AND DIABATIC PROCESSES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WET BULB TEMPS BEING REACHED WITH RAIN CHANGING
OVER TO SNOW DURING WED AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
RAIN/SNOW LINE APPEARS TO SETUP SOMEWHERE OVER CENTRAL RI INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA. THESE BOUNDARIES ARE ALWAYS DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT ESPECIALLY AT THIS TIME RANGE. CRITICAL PROCESSES HERE WILL
BE STRONG MID LEVEL FGEN. AS OF NOW THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST STRONG
BANDING FEATURE 18Z WED - 00Z THU OVER CENTRAL CT/NORTHWEST RI
EXTENDING NORTHEAST THRU WORCESTER COUNTY AND INTO NORTHEAST MA
INCLUDING THE GREATER BOSTON AREA. PRECIP INTENSITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS BAND SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW ALONG
WITH SNOW RATES OF 1-2" PER HOUR. IN ADDITION...WITH SURFACE LOW
TRACKING VICINITY OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK COUPLED WITH STRONG PRES
FALLS...SURFACE WINDS OVER NORTHEAST MA INCLUDING BOSTON SHOULD BE
BACKING TO THE NNE. THIS WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL COOLING.
IDEALLY WOULD LIKE TO SEE A 1030+ MB HIGH OVER QUEBEC HELPING TO
WEDGE THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR DOWN THE COASTAL PLAIN FROM ME AND
NH...THERE IS A 1026 HIGH OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC 00Z THU. THIS
COMBINED WITH STRONG PRES FALLS JUST OFFSHORE SHOULD HELP A COASTAL
FRONT DEVELOP. ALL OF THESE FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE INCREASE THE
RISK FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW INTO THE RT-128 CORRIDOR OF EASTERN
MA INCLUDING THE GREATER BOSTON AREA. THUS HAVE EXPANDED THE WATCH
TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL.

OTHERWISE NOT MANY CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. GIVEN PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF SYSTEM...DRY SLOT AND NOT IDEAL SNOW-LIQUID-RATIOS /SLR/
MAX SNOWFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND A FOOT. HIGHEST RISK
WHERE EVER MESO SCALE BANDING SETS UP...WHICH RIGHT NOW APPEARS
SOMEWHERE FROM CENTRAL CT-WORCESTER COUNTY INTO NORTHEAST MA.
OBVIOUSLY THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE GIVEN EVENT IS STILL 42-48 HRS
AWAY.

WINDS...

STRONG LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST JET MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF RI
AND MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. MODELS PROJECTING 50-65
KT AT 925 MB. THIS COUPLED WITH STRONG PRES FALLS AND RELATIVELY
WARM OCEAN WATERS PROVIDING A WELL MIXED BLYR WILL YIELD A MODERATE
RISK OF 60 MPH WIND GUSTS FROM SOUTH COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY/CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS. TIMING OF STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR 4 PM WED TIL 1
AM THU. THUS HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THIS AREA. LATER
SHIFTS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO SURROUND THIS AREA WITH A WIND ADVISORY.

COASTAL FLOODING...

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. GIVEN SHORT DURATION OF ONSHORE WINDS AND PRESSURES
BEGINNING TO RISE TOWARD HIGH TIDE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY COASTAL
FLOOD ISSUES INCLUDING EROSION.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
WILL ROTATE AROUND BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER EASTERN STATES. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS FROM TIME TO TIME. WE
SHOULD SEE BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES SUN AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
NEXT MON. MAY SEE FEW SHOWERS WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR CIGS AOA 10KFT. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT THROUGH
MIDDAY ALONG S COAST.

TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS UP TO 09Z THEN CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO DETERIORATE FROM VFR TO IFR.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...COASTAL STORM ANTICIPATED.
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION SNOWS OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS IMMEDIATELY
W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. +SN POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY BDL-ORH AND
POSSIBLY FOR A TIME AT BOS AROUND 18Z THU. STRONG NE WINDS UP TO
45 KT AT HYA AND ACK AROUND 00Z THU.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THUS AND FRI...VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...WINDS/SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS MASS/IPSWICH BAYS TO
ALLOW SMALL CRAFT TO EXPIRE AT 09Z. CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS INTO RI/BI SOUNDS THROUGH THE DAY. SEAS
UP TO 11 FT ON THE OPEN WATERS ON SW WINDS GUSTING TO 25
KT...WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH BY EVENING.

TONIGHT...THE LULL BEFORE THE STORM. W WINDS DIMINISH AS THEY VEER
TO NW-N DURING THE NIGHT. SEAS ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS AND
DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS REMAIN AOA 5 FT. HOWEVER...AS
NE WINDS INCREASE DURING WED...GALE AND STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED TO PASS AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK 00Z THU.
HIGH PROB OF NE GALES WITH A LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF STORM FORCE
GUSTS 21Z WED TO 06Z THU. HEAVY RAIN LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST ON OUTER WATERS DUE TO 25KT GUSTS
AND 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR CTZ002.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ003-004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MAZ002>004-008>011.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MAZ019-022>024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-012>016-026.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NHZ011.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ012-015.
RI...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR RIZ008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ231>235-237-254>256.
     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ230-236-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 251721
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1221 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A QUIET AND MILD DAY WITH SOME GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS INTO THE AFTERNOON. A WINTER STORM IS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THANKSGIVING DAY. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA AND
IS ACROSS THE CANAL RIGHT NOW. DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED
SIGNIFICANTLY...AS THEY WERE IN THE 50F EARLIER AND NOT HAVE
DROPPED TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS OF NEAR
20 MPH HAD BEEN OBSERVED THROUGH THE OBS AS MIXING CONTINUES.
SURFACE TEMPS ARE STILL HOLDING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
ANY LINGERING FOG ACROSS THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS WILL BE SWEPT
OFFSHORE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE SKIES TODAY THANKS TO ADVECTING
TROPICAL MOISTURE...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BE OUR STORMS MOISTURE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE AS LIGHT W WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO N.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRES TAKES SHAPE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE
TONIGHT. WILL SEE PRECIP BLOSSOM S OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...AND
WILL PUSH INTO S COASTAL AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND QUICKLY SHIFT N
BY DAYBREAK. AS TEMPS FALL BACK CLOSE TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
WELL INLAND...WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW GENERALLY FROM
THE WORCESTER HILLS INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF N CENTRAL CT
WESTWARD. QPF DURING THIS TIME IS RATHER LIGHT...BUT COULD BE
ENOUGH WELL INLAND TO CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS DURING THE MORNING
COMMUTE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

*** EARLY SEASON WINTER STORM TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION WED/WED
  NIGHT ***

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

00Z MODEL SUITE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH SURFACE LOW
TRACKING OVER OR NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...WITH H85 CIRCULATION
MOVING ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS AND H7 LOW DEVELOPING AND
TRACKING OVER BDL-ORH-MHT LINE. 00Z ECMWF ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF
THE ENVELOPE AND 00Z GFS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUID ENVELOPE.
GIVEN EVENT IS STILL 42-48 HRS AWAY /MODEL TIME/ MODEL BLEND STILL
THE MOST SKILLFUL OPTION. THE TRACK MENTIONED ABOVE SUPPORTS
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWS NW OF I-95. THUS HAVE UPGRADED WINTER STORM
WATCHES TO WARNINGS FROM HARTFORD COUNTY NORTHWARD THRU THE I-91
CORRIDOR INTO CHESHIRE COUNTY OF NH AND EASTWARD INTO WORCESTER
COUNTY FOR A HIGH PROBABILITY OF 6+ INCHES.

PTYPE AND SNOWFALL...

WARM BOUNDARY LAYER EARLY WED WILL LEAD TO PRECIP BEGINNING AS RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT THE FAR INTERIOR. HOWEVER STRONG
FORCING FOR ASCENT AND INCREASING PRECIP INTENSITY /COPIOUS GULF AND
ATLC MSTR/ WILL YIELD COOLING VIA DYNAMICAL AND DIABATIC PROCESSES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WET BULB TEMPS BEING REACHED WITH RAIN CHANGING
OVER TO SNOW DURING WED AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
RAIN/SNOW LINE APPEARS TO SETUP SOMEWHERE OVER CENTRAL RI INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA. THESE BOUNDARIES ARE ALWAYS DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT ESPECIALLY AT THIS TIME RANGE. CRITICAL PROCESSES HERE WILL
BE STRONG MID LEVEL FGEN. AS OF NOW THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST STRONG
BANDING FEATURE 18Z WED - 00Z THU OVER CENTRAL CT/NORTHWEST RI
EXTENDING NORTHEAST THRU WORCESTER COUNTY AND INTO NORTHEAST MA
INCLUDING THE GREATER BOSTON AREA. PRECIP INTENSITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS BAND SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW ALONG
WITH SNOW RATES OF 1-2" PER HOUR. IN ADDITION...WITH SURFACE LOW
TRACKING VICINITY OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK COUPLED WITH STRONG PRES
FALLS...SURFACE WINDS OVER NORTHEAST MA INCLUDING BOSTON SHOULD BE
BACKING TO THE NNE. THIS WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL COOLING.
IDEALLY WOULD LIKE TO SEE A 1030+ MB HIGH OVER QUEBEC HELPING TO
WEDGE THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR DOWN THE COASTAL PLAIN FROM ME AND
NH...THERE IS A 1026 HIGH OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC 00Z THU. THIS
COMBINED WITH STRONG PRES FALLS JUST OFFSHORE SHOULD HELP A COASTAL
FRONT DEVELOP. ALL OF THESE FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE INCREASE THE
RISK FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW INTO THE RT-128 CORRIDOR OF EASTERN
MA INCLUDING THE GREATER BOSTON AREA. THUS HAVE EXPANDED THE WATCH
TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL.

OTHERWISE NOT MANY CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. GIVEN PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF SYSTEM...DRY SLOT AND NOT IDEAL SNOW-LIQUID-RATIOS /SLR/
MAX SNOWFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND A FOOT. HIGHEST RISK
WHERE EVER MESO SCALE BANDING SETS UP...WHICH RIGHT NOW APPEARS
SOMEWHERE FROM CENTRAL CT-WORCESTER COUNTY INTO NORTHEAST MA.
OBVIOUSLY THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE GIVEN EVENT IS STILL 42-48 HRS
AWAY.

WINDS...

STRONG LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST JET MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF RI
AND MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. MODELS PROJECTING 50-65
KT AT 925 MB. THIS COUPLED WITH STRONG PRES FALLS AND RELATIVELY
WARM OCEAN WATERS PROVIDING A WELL MIXED BLYR WILL YIELD A MODERATE
RISK OF 60 MPH WIND GUSTS FROM SOUTH COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY/CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS. TIMING OF STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR 4 PM WED TIL 1
AM THU. THUS HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THIS AREA. LATER
SHIFTS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO SURROUND THIS AREA WITH A WIND ADVISORY.

COASTAL FLOODING...

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. GIVEN SHORT DURATION OF ONSHORE WINDS AND PRESSURES
BEGINNING TO RISE TOWARD HIGH TIDE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY COASTAL
FLOOD ISSUES INCLUDING EROSION.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
WILL ROTATE AROUND BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER EASTERN STATES. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS FROM TIME TO TIME. WE
SHOULD SEE BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES SUN AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
NEXT MON. MAY SEE FEW SHOWERS WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...VFR CIGS AOA 10KFT. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT THROUGH
MIDDAY ALONG S COAST.

TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS UP TO 09Z THEN CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO DETERIORATE FROM VFR TO IFR.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...COASTAL STORM ANTICIPATED.
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION SNOWS OVER INTERIOR TERMINALS IMMEDIATELY
W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. +SN POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY BDL-ORH AND
POSSIBLY FOR A TIME AT BOS AROUND 18Z THU. STRONG NE WINDS UP TO
45 KT AT HYA AND ACK AROUND 00Z THU.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THUS AND FRI...VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...WINDS/SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS MASS/IPSWICH BAYS TO
ALLOW SMALL CRAFT TO EXPIRE AT 09Z. CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS INTO RI/BI SOUNDS THROUGH THE DAY. SEAS
UP TO 11 FT ON THE OPEN WATERS ON SW WINDS GUSTING TO 25
KT...WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH BY EVENING.

TONIGHT...THE LULL BEFORE THE STORM. W WINDS DIMINISH AS THEY VEER
TO NW-N DURING THE NIGHT. SEAS ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS AND
DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS REMAIN AOA 5 FT. HOWEVER...AS
NE WINDS INCREASE DURING WED...GALE AND STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED TO PASS AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK 00Z THU.
HIGH PROB OF NE GALES WITH A LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF STORM FORCE
GUSTS 21Z WED TO 06Z THU. HEAVY RAIN LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST ON OUTER WATERS DUE TO 25KT GUSTS
AND 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR CTZ002.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ003-004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MAZ002>004-008>011.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MAZ019-022>024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-012>016-026.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NHZ011.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ012-015.
RI...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR RIZ008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ231>235-237-254>256.
     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ230-236-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 251444
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
944 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A QUIET AND MILD DAY WITH SOME GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS INTO THE AFTERNOON. A WINTER STORM IS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THANKSGIVING DAY. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1000 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT IS EVER SO SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. AND IT WILL TAKE ITS TIME THANKS TO SW FLOW ALOFT.
APPEARS THAT IS SHOULD BEGIN TO ENTER THE WESTERN ZONES WITH THE
HOURS. ASIDE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CAPE CONTINUES TO ADVECT
HIGHER MOISTURE SO PATCHY FOG CONTINUES TO BE AN ISSUE FOR THE
CAPE AND THE ISLANDS. ANTICIPATE SOME MIXING TO OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD AND BEHIND OF THE FRONT SO HAVE UPDATED THE WIND
GUSTS ACCORDINGLY. FINALLY HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE ON CLOUD COVER AS
A GOOD CIRRUS SHIELD IF OVER THE REGION THANKS TO ADVECTING
MOISTURE ALOFT INTO THE REGION...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BE OUR
STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOR TODAY...THE FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS MORNING...AS SEEN ON BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND ECMWF OP MODEL
RUNS. THE LINE OF LIGHT PRECIP NOTED EARLIER THIS MORNING ACROSS
NORTHERN VT/NH HAS DISSIPATED AS IT MOVED NE...SO THIS IS MAINLY A
DEWPT FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH E WITH THE SLOWLY LOWERING H5 HEIGHTS
EVEN THOUGH THE REGION REMAINS IN A GENERAL SW FLOW AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT. THE RIDGE WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS...SO EXPECT THE
MORNING CLOUDS TO PUSH OFFSHORE...THOUGH MAY LINGER ALONG THE S
COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

COLDER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AS H85
TEMPS...WHICH START OFF FROM +7C TO +11C AT 12Z...WILL DROP BACK
CLOSE TO 0C BY 00Z ACROSS SW NH/W MA...RANGING TO +6C ACROSS CAPE
COD. WITH A HIGH LAUNCHING PAD AND SOME SUNSHINE WORKING
IN...EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE AT LEAST A FEW DEGS THIS MORNING BEFORE
FALLING BACK IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE AS LIGHT W WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO N.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRES TAKES SHAPE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE
TONIGHT. WILL SEE PRECIP BLOSSOM S OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...AND
WILL PUSH INTO S COASTAL AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND QUICKLY SHIFT N
BY DAYBREAK. AS TEMPS FALL BACK CLOSE TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
WELL INLAND...WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW GENERALLY FROM
THE WORCESTER HILLS INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF N CENTRAL CT
WESTWARD. QPF DURING THIS TIME IS RATHER LIGHT...BUT COULD BE
ENOUGH WELL INLAND TO CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS DURING THE MORNING
COMMUTE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

*** EARLY SEASON WINTER STORM TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION WED/WED
  NIGHT ***

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

00Z MODEL SUITE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH SURFACE LOW
TRACKING OVER OR NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...WITH H85 CIRCULATION
MOVING ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS AND H7 LOW DEVELOPING AND
TRACKING OVER BDL-ORH-MHT LINE. 00Z ECMWF ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF
THE ENVELOPE AND 00Z GFS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUID ENVELOPE.
GIVEN EVENT IS STILL 42-48 HRS AWAY /MODEL TIME/ MODEL BLEND STILL
THE MOST SKILLFUL OPTION. THE TRACK MENTIONED ABOVE SUPPORTS
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWS NW OF I-95. THUS HAVE UPGRADED WINTER STORM
WATCHES TO WARNINGS FROM HARTFORD COUNTY NORTHWARD THRU THE I-91
CORRIDOR INTO CHESHIRE COUNTY OF NH AND EASTWARD INTO WORCESTER
COUNTY FOR A HIGH PROBABILITY OF 6+ INCHES.

PTYPE AND SNOWFALL...

WARM BOUNDARY LAYER EARLY WED WILL LEAD TO PRECIP BEGINNING AS RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT THE FAR INTERIOR. HOWEVER STRONG
FORCING FOR ASCENT AND INCREASING PRECIP INTENSITY /COPIOUS GULF AND
ATLC MSTR/ WILL YIELD COOLING VIA DYNAMICAL AND DIABATIC PROCESSES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WET BULB TEMPS BEING REACHED WITH RAIN CHANGING
OVER TO SNOW DURING WED AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
RAIN/SNOW LINE APPEARS TO SETUP SOMEWHERE OVER CENTRAL RI INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA. THESE BOUNDARIES ARE ALWAYS DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT ESPECIALLY AT THIS TIME RANGE. CRITICAL PROCESSES HERE WILL
BE STRONG MID LEVEL FGEN. AS OF NOW THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST STRONG
BANDING FEATURE 18Z WED - 00Z THU OVER CENTRAL CT/NORTHWEST RI
EXTENDING NORTHEAST THRU WORCESTER COUNTY AND INTO NORTHEAST MA
INCLUDING THE GREATER BOSTON AREA. PRECIP INTENSITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS BAND SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW ALONG
WITH SNOW RATES OF 1-2" PER HOUR. IN ADDITION...WITH SURFACE LOW
TRACKING VICINITY OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK COUPLED WITH STRONG PRES
FALLS...SURFACE WINDS OVER NORTHEAST MA INCLUDING BOSTON SHOULD BE
BACKING TO THE NNE. THIS WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL COOLING.
IDEALLY WOULD LIKE TO SEE A 1030+ MB HIGH OVER QUEBEC HELPING TO
WEDGE THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR DOWN THE COASTAL PLAIN FROM ME AND
NH...THERE IS A 1026 HIGH OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC 00Z THU. THIS
COMBINED WITH STRONG PRES FALLS JUST OFFSHORE SHOULD HELP A COASTAL
FRONT DEVELOP. ALL OF THESE FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE INCREASE THE
RISK FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW INTO THE RT-128 CORRIDOR OF EASTERN
MA INCLUDING THE GREATER BOSTON AREA. THUS HAVE EXPANDED THE WATCH
TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL.

OTHERWISE NOT MANY CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. GIVEN PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF SYSTEM...DRY SLOT AND NOT IDEAL SNOW-LIQUID-RATIOS /SLR/
MAX SNOWFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND A FOOT. HIGHEST RISK
WHERE EVER MESO SCALE BANDING SETS UP...WHICH RIGHT NOW APPEARS
SOMEWHERE FROM CENTRAL CT-WORCESTER COUNTY INTO NORTHEAST MA.
OBVIOUSLY THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE GIVEN EVENT IS STILL 42-48 HRS
AWAY.

WINDS...

STRONG LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST JET MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF RI
AND MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. MODELS PROJECTING 50-65
KT AT 925 MB. THIS COUPLED WITH STRONG PRES FALLS AND RELATIVELY
WARM OCEAN WATERS PROVIDING A WELL MIXED BLYR WILL YIELD A MODERATE
RISK OF 60 MPH WIND GUSTS FROM SOUTH COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY/CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS. TIMING OF STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR 4 PM WED TIL 1
AM THU. THUS HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THIS AREA. LATER
SHIFTS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO SURROUND THIS AREA WITH A WIND ADVISORY.

COASTAL FLOODING...

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. GIVEN SHORT DURATION OF ONSHORE WINDS AND PRESSURES
BEGINNING TO RISE TOWARD HIGH TIDE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY COASTAL
FLOOD ISSUES INCLUDING EROSION.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
WILL ROTATE AROUND BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER EASTERN STATES. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS FROM TIME TO TIME. WE
SHOULD SEE BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES SUN AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
NEXT MON. MAY SEE FEW SHOWERS WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...IFR TO LOCALLY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE BY AROUND
15Z ALONG THE S COAST. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CIGS AOA 10KFT. MAY
SEE PATCHY CLOUDS AROUND 5-6KFT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS RI/SE
MA. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT THROUGH MIDDAY ALONG S COAST.

TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COASTAL STORM ANTICIPATED. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION SNOWS OVER
INTERIOR TERMINALS IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. +SN POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY BDL-ORH AND POSSIBLY FOR A TIME AT BOS AROUND 00Z THU.
STRONG NE WINDS UP TO 50 KT AT HYA AND ACK AROUND 00Z THU.

FRI...VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...WINDS/SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS MASS/IPSWICH BAYS TO
ALLOW SMALL CRAFT TO EXPIRE AT 09Z. CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS INTO RI/BI SOUNDS THROUGH THE DAY. SEAS
UP TO 11 FT ON THE OPEN WATERS ON SW WINDS GUSTING TO 25
KT...WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH BY EVENING.

TONIGHT...THE LULL BEFORE THE STORM. W WINDS DIMINISH AS THEY VEER
TO NW-N DURING THE NIGHT. SEAS ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS AND
DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS REMAIN AOA 5 FT. HOWEVER...AS
NE WINDS INCREASE DURING WED...GALE AND STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED TO PASS AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK 00Z THU.
HIGH PROB OF NE GALES WITH A LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF STORM FORCE
GUSTS 21Z WED TO 06Z THU. HEAVY RAIN LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST ON OUTER WATERS DUE TO 25KT GUSTS
AND 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR CTZ002.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ003-004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MAZ002>004-008>011.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MAZ019-022>024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-012>016-026.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NHZ011.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ012-015.
RI...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR RIZ008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ231>235-237-254>256.
     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ230-236-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 251444
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
944 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A QUIET AND MILD DAY WITH SOME GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS INTO THE AFTERNOON. A WINTER STORM IS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THANKSGIVING DAY. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1000 AM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT IS EVER SO SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. AND IT WILL TAKE ITS TIME THANKS TO SW FLOW ALOFT.
APPEARS THAT IS SHOULD BEGIN TO ENTER THE WESTERN ZONES WITH THE
HOURS. ASIDE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CAPE CONTINUES TO ADVECT
HIGHER MOISTURE SO PATCHY FOG CONTINUES TO BE AN ISSUE FOR THE
CAPE AND THE ISLANDS. ANTICIPATE SOME MIXING TO OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD AND BEHIND OF THE FRONT SO HAVE UPDATED THE WIND
GUSTS ACCORDINGLY. FINALLY HAVE A LOW CONFIDENCE ON CLOUD COVER AS
A GOOD CIRRUS SHIELD IF OVER THE REGION THANKS TO ADVECTING
MOISTURE ALOFT INTO THE REGION...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BE OUR
STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOR TODAY...THE FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS MORNING...AS SEEN ON BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND ECMWF OP MODEL
RUNS. THE LINE OF LIGHT PRECIP NOTED EARLIER THIS MORNING ACROSS
NORTHERN VT/NH HAS DISSIPATED AS IT MOVED NE...SO THIS IS MAINLY A
DEWPT FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH E WITH THE SLOWLY LOWERING H5 HEIGHTS
EVEN THOUGH THE REGION REMAINS IN A GENERAL SW FLOW AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT. THE RIDGE WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS...SO EXPECT THE
MORNING CLOUDS TO PUSH OFFSHORE...THOUGH MAY LINGER ALONG THE S
COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

COLDER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AS H85
TEMPS...WHICH START OFF FROM +7C TO +11C AT 12Z...WILL DROP BACK
CLOSE TO 0C BY 00Z ACROSS SW NH/W MA...RANGING TO +6C ACROSS CAPE
COD. WITH A HIGH LAUNCHING PAD AND SOME SUNSHINE WORKING
IN...EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE AT LEAST A FEW DEGS THIS MORNING BEFORE
FALLING BACK IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE AS LIGHT W WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO N.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRES TAKES SHAPE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE
TONIGHT. WILL SEE PRECIP BLOSSOM S OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...AND
WILL PUSH INTO S COASTAL AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND QUICKLY SHIFT N
BY DAYBREAK. AS TEMPS FALL BACK CLOSE TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
WELL INLAND...WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW GENERALLY FROM
THE WORCESTER HILLS INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF N CENTRAL CT
WESTWARD. QPF DURING THIS TIME IS RATHER LIGHT...BUT COULD BE
ENOUGH WELL INLAND TO CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS DURING THE MORNING
COMMUTE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

*** EARLY SEASON WINTER STORM TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION WED/WED
  NIGHT ***

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

00Z MODEL SUITE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH SURFACE LOW
TRACKING OVER OR NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...WITH H85 CIRCULATION
MOVING ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS AND H7 LOW DEVELOPING AND
TRACKING OVER BDL-ORH-MHT LINE. 00Z ECMWF ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF
THE ENVELOPE AND 00Z GFS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUID ENVELOPE.
GIVEN EVENT IS STILL 42-48 HRS AWAY /MODEL TIME/ MODEL BLEND STILL
THE MOST SKILLFUL OPTION. THE TRACK MENTIONED ABOVE SUPPORTS
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWS NW OF I-95. THUS HAVE UPGRADED WINTER STORM
WATCHES TO WARNINGS FROM HARTFORD COUNTY NORTHWARD THRU THE I-91
CORRIDOR INTO CHESHIRE COUNTY OF NH AND EASTWARD INTO WORCESTER
COUNTY FOR A HIGH PROBABILITY OF 6+ INCHES.

PTYPE AND SNOWFALL...

WARM BOUNDARY LAYER EARLY WED WILL LEAD TO PRECIP BEGINNING AS RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT THE FAR INTERIOR. HOWEVER STRONG
FORCING FOR ASCENT AND INCREASING PRECIP INTENSITY /COPIOUS GULF AND
ATLC MSTR/ WILL YIELD COOLING VIA DYNAMICAL AND DIABATIC PROCESSES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WET BULB TEMPS BEING REACHED WITH RAIN CHANGING
OVER TO SNOW DURING WED AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
RAIN/SNOW LINE APPEARS TO SETUP SOMEWHERE OVER CENTRAL RI INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA. THESE BOUNDARIES ARE ALWAYS DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT ESPECIALLY AT THIS TIME RANGE. CRITICAL PROCESSES HERE WILL
BE STRONG MID LEVEL FGEN. AS OF NOW THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST STRONG
BANDING FEATURE 18Z WED - 00Z THU OVER CENTRAL CT/NORTHWEST RI
EXTENDING NORTHEAST THRU WORCESTER COUNTY AND INTO NORTHEAST MA
INCLUDING THE GREATER BOSTON AREA. PRECIP INTENSITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS BAND SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW ALONG
WITH SNOW RATES OF 1-2" PER HOUR. IN ADDITION...WITH SURFACE LOW
TRACKING VICINITY OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK COUPLED WITH STRONG PRES
FALLS...SURFACE WINDS OVER NORTHEAST MA INCLUDING BOSTON SHOULD BE
BACKING TO THE NNE. THIS WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL COOLING.
IDEALLY WOULD LIKE TO SEE A 1030+ MB HIGH OVER QUEBEC HELPING TO
WEDGE THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR DOWN THE COASTAL PLAIN FROM ME AND
NH...THERE IS A 1026 HIGH OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC 00Z THU. THIS
COMBINED WITH STRONG PRES FALLS JUST OFFSHORE SHOULD HELP A COASTAL
FRONT DEVELOP. ALL OF THESE FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE INCREASE THE
RISK FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW INTO THE RT-128 CORRIDOR OF EASTERN
MA INCLUDING THE GREATER BOSTON AREA. THUS HAVE EXPANDED THE WATCH
TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL.

OTHERWISE NOT MANY CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. GIVEN PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF SYSTEM...DRY SLOT AND NOT IDEAL SNOW-LIQUID-RATIOS /SLR/
MAX SNOWFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND A FOOT. HIGHEST RISK
WHERE EVER MESO SCALE BANDING SETS UP...WHICH RIGHT NOW APPEARS
SOMEWHERE FROM CENTRAL CT-WORCESTER COUNTY INTO NORTHEAST MA.
OBVIOUSLY THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE GIVEN EVENT IS STILL 42-48 HRS
AWAY.

WINDS...

STRONG LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST JET MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF RI
AND MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. MODELS PROJECTING 50-65
KT AT 925 MB. THIS COUPLED WITH STRONG PRES FALLS AND RELATIVELY
WARM OCEAN WATERS PROVIDING A WELL MIXED BLYR WILL YIELD A MODERATE
RISK OF 60 MPH WIND GUSTS FROM SOUTH COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY/CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS. TIMING OF STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR 4 PM WED TIL 1
AM THU. THUS HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THIS AREA. LATER
SHIFTS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO SURROUND THIS AREA WITH A WIND ADVISORY.

COASTAL FLOODING...

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. GIVEN SHORT DURATION OF ONSHORE WINDS AND PRESSURES
BEGINNING TO RISE TOWARD HIGH TIDE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY COASTAL
FLOOD ISSUES INCLUDING EROSION.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
WILL ROTATE AROUND BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER EASTERN STATES. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS FROM TIME TO TIME. WE
SHOULD SEE BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES SUN AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
NEXT MON. MAY SEE FEW SHOWERS WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...IFR TO LOCALLY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE BY AROUND
15Z ALONG THE S COAST. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CIGS AOA 10KFT. MAY
SEE PATCHY CLOUDS AROUND 5-6KFT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS RI/SE
MA. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT THROUGH MIDDAY ALONG S COAST.

TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COASTAL STORM ANTICIPATED. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION SNOWS OVER
INTERIOR TERMINALS IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. +SN POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY BDL-ORH AND POSSIBLY FOR A TIME AT BOS AROUND 00Z THU.
STRONG NE WINDS UP TO 50 KT AT HYA AND ACK AROUND 00Z THU.

FRI...VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...WINDS/SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS MASS/IPSWICH BAYS TO
ALLOW SMALL CRAFT TO EXPIRE AT 09Z. CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS INTO RI/BI SOUNDS THROUGH THE DAY. SEAS
UP TO 11 FT ON THE OPEN WATERS ON SW WINDS GUSTING TO 25
KT...WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH BY EVENING.

TONIGHT...THE LULL BEFORE THE STORM. W WINDS DIMINISH AS THEY VEER
TO NW-N DURING THE NIGHT. SEAS ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS AND
DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS REMAIN AOA 5 FT. HOWEVER...AS
NE WINDS INCREASE DURING WED...GALE AND STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED TO PASS AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK 00Z THU.
HIGH PROB OF NE GALES WITH A LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF STORM FORCE
GUSTS 21Z WED TO 06Z THU. HEAVY RAIN LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST ON OUTER WATERS DUE TO 25KT GUSTS
AND 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR CTZ002.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ003-004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MAZ002>004-008>011.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MAZ019-022>024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-012>016-026.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NHZ011.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ012-015.
RI...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR RIZ008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ231>235-237-254>256.
     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ230-236-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 251155
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
655 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A QUIET AND MILD DAY WITH SOME GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS INTO THE AFTERNOON. A WINTER STORM IS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THANKSGIVING DAY. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
640 AM UPDATE...
LOOKS LIKE THE BACK EDGE OF THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IS FINALLY
STARTING TO SLOWLY SHIFT E ON LATEST IR SATELLITE TRENDS. ALSO
NOTING DEWPTS DROPPING TO THE MID-UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES AS FAR S AS KPOU AND KDXR. HAVE KEPT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY SKIES TO START...THOUGH SOME AREAS MAY ONLY SEE HIGH THIN
CLOUDS...THEN SHOULD IMPROVE BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY ACROSS THE CT
VALLEY THEN WILL SHIFT E THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

HAVE INCREASED THE SW WIND GUSTS WITH GOOD MIXING IN PLACE...SO
PUSHED UP TO AROUND 20 KT FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

TEMPS/DEWPTS CONTINUE A FEW DEGS MILDER THAN FORECAST SO HAVE
ADJUSTED TO BRING CURRENT. REMAINING GRIDS LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE BUT
DID UPDATE THOSE AS WELL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOR TODAY...THE FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS MORNING...AS SEEN ON BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND ECMWF OP MODEL
RUNS. THE LINE OF LIGHT PRECIP NOTED EARLIER THIS MORNING ACROSS
NORTHERN VT/NH HAS DISSIPATED AS IT MOVED NE...SO THIS IS MAINLY A
DEWPT FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH E WITH THE SLOWLY LOWERING H5 HEIGHTS
EVEN THOUGH THE REGION REMAINS IN A GENERAL SW FLOW AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT. THE RIDGE WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS...SO EXPECT THE
MORNING CLOUDS TO PUSH OFFSHORE...THOUGH MAY LINGER ALONG THE S
COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

COLDER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AS H85
TEMPS...WHICH START OFF FROM +7C TO +11C AT 12Z...WILL DROP BACK
CLOSE TO 0C BY 00Z ACROSS SW NH/W MA...RANGING TO +6C ACROSS CAPE
COD. WITH A HIGH LAUNCHING PAD AND SOME SUNSHINE WORKING
IN...EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE AT LEAST A FEW DEGS THIS MORNING BEFORE
FALLING BACK IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE AS LIGHT W WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO N.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRES TAKES SHAPE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE
TONIGHT. WILL SEE PRECIP BLOSSOM S OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...AND
WILL PUSH INTO S COASTAL AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND QUICKLY SHIFT N
BY DAYBREAK. AS TEMPS FALL BACK CLOSE TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
WELL INLAND...WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW GENERALLY FROM
THE WORCESTER HILLS INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF N CENTRAL CT
WESTWARD. QPF DURING THIS TIME IS RATHER LIGHT...BUT COULD BE
ENOUGH WELL INLAND TO CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS DURING THE MORNING
COMMUTE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

*** EARLY SEASON WINTER STORM TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION WED/WED
  NIGHT ***

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

00Z MODEL SUITE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH SURFACE LOW
TRACKING OVER OR NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...WITH H85 CIRCULATION
MOVING ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS AND H7 LOW DEVELOPING AND
TRACKING OVER BDL-ORH-MHT LINE. 00Z ECMWF ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF
THE ENVELOPE AND 00Z GFS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUID ENVELOPE.
GIVEN EVENT IS STILL 42-48 HRS AWAY /MODEL TIME/ MODEL BLEND STILL
THE MOST SKILLFUL OPTION. THE TRACK MENTIONED ABOVE SUPPORTS
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWS NW OF I-95. THUS HAVE UPGRADED WINTER STORM
WATCHES TO WARNINGS FROM HARTFORD COUNTY NORTHWARD THRU THE I-91
CORRIDOR INTO CHESHIRE COUNTY OF NH AND EASTWARD INTO WORCESTER
COUNTY FOR A HIGH PROBABILITY OF 6+ INCHES.

PTYPE AND SNOWFALL...

WARM BOUNDARY LAYER EARLY WED WILL LEAD TO PRECIP BEGINNING AS RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT THE FAR INTERIOR. HOWEVER STRONG
FORCING FOR ASCENT AND INCREASING PRECIP INTENSITY /COPIOUS GULF AND
ATLC MSTR/ WILL YIELD COOLING VIA DYNAMICAL AND DIABATIC PROCESSES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WET BULB TEMPS BEING REACHED WITH RAIN CHANGING
OVER TO SNOW DURING WED AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
RAIN/SNOW LINE APPEARS TO SETUP SOMEWHERE OVER CENTRAL RI INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA. THESE BOUNDARIES ARE ALWAYS DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT ESPECIALLY AT THIS TIME RANGE. CRITICAL PROCESSES HERE WILL
BE STRONG MID LEVEL FGEN. AS OF NOW THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST STRONG
BANDING FEATURE 18Z WED - 00Z THU OVER CENTRAL CT/NORTHWEST RI
EXTENDING NORTHEAST THRU WORCESTER COUNTY AND INTO NORTHEAST MA
INCLUDING THE GREATER BOSTON AREA. PRECIP INTENSITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS BAND SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW ALONG
WITH SNOW RATES OF 1-2" PER HOUR. IN ADDITION...WITH SURFACE LOW
TRACKING VICINITY OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK COUPLED WITH STRONG PRES
FALLS...SURFACE WINDS OVER NORTHEAST MA INCLUDING BOSTON SHOULD BE
BACKING TO THE NNE. THIS WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL COOLING.
IDEALLY WOULD LIKE TO SEE A 1030+ MB HIGH OVER QUEBEC HELPING TO
WEDGE THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR DOWN THE COASTAL PLAIN FROM ME AND
NH...THERE IS A 1026 HIGH OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC 00Z THU. THIS
COMBINED WITH STRONG PRES FALLS JUST OFFSHORE SHOULD HELP A COASTAL
FRONT DEVELOP. ALL OF THESE FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE INCREASE THE
RISK FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW INTO THE RT-128 CORRIDOR OF EASTERN
MA INCLUDING THE GREATER BOSTON AREA. THUS HAVE EXPANDED THE WATCH
TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL.

OTHERWISE NOT MANY CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. GIVEN PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF SYSTEM...DRY SLOT AND NOT IDEAL SNOW-LIQUID-RATIOS /SLR/
MAX SNOWFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND A FOOT. HIGHEST RISK
WHERE EVER MESO SCALE BANDING SETS UP...WHICH RIGHT NOW APPEARS
SOMEWHERE FROM CENTRAL CT-WORCESTER COUNTY INTO NORTHEAST MA.
OBVIOUSLY THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE GIVEN EVENT IS STILL 42-48 HRS
AWAY.

WINDS...

STRONG LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST JET MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF RI
AND MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. MODELS PROJECTING 50-65
KT AT 925 MB. THIS COUPLED WITH STRONG PRES FALLS AND RELATIVELY
WARM OCEAN WATERS PROVIDING A WELL MIXED BLYR WILL YIELD A MODERATE
RISK OF 60 MPH WIND GUSTS FROM SOUTH COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY/CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS. TIMING OF STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR 4 PM WED TIL 1
AM THU. THUS HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THIS AREA. LATER
SHIFTS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO SURROUND THIS AREA WITH A WIND ADVISORY.

COASTAL FLOODING...

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. GIVEN SHORT DURATION OF ONSHORE WINDS AND PRESSURES
BEGINNING TO RISE TOWARD HIGH TIDE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY COASTAL
FLOOD ISSUES INCLUDING EROSION.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
WILL ROTATE AROUND BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER EASTERN STATES. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS FROM TIME TO TIME. WE
SHOULD SEE BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES SUN AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
NEXT MON. MAY SEE FEW SHOWERS WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...IFR TO LOCALLY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE BY AROUND
15Z ALONG THE S COAST. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CIGS AOA 10KFT. MAY
SEE PATCHY CLOUDS AROUND 5-6KFT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS RI/SE
MA. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT THROUGH MIDDAY ALONG S COAST.

TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COASTAL STORM ANTICIPATED. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION SNOWS OVER
INTERIOR TERMINALS IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. +SN POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY BDL-ORH AND POSSIBLY FOR A TIME AT BOS AROUND 00Z THU.
STRONG NE WINDS UP TO 50 KT AT HYA AND ACK AROUND 00Z THU.

FRI...VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...WINDS/SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS MASS/IPSWICH BAYS TO
ALLOW SMALL CRAFT TO EXPIRE AT 09Z. CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS INTO RI/BI SOUNDS THROUGH THE DAY. SEAS
UP TO 11 FT ON THE OPEN WATERS ON SW WINDS GUSTING TO 25
KT...WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH BY EVENING.

TONIGHT...THE LULL BEFORE THE STORM. W WINDS DIMINISH AS THEY VEER
TO NW-N DURING THE NIGHT. SEAS ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS AND
DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS REMAIN AOA 5 FT. HOWEVER...AS
NE WINDS INCREASE DURING WED...GALE AND STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED TO PASS AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK 00Z THU.
HIGH PROB OF NE GALES WITH A LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF STORM FORCE
GUSTS 21Z WED TO 06Z THU. HEAVY RAIN LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST ON OUTER WATERS DUE TO 25KT GUSTS
AND 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR CTZ002.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ003-004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MAZ002>004-008>011.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MAZ019-022>024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-012>016-026.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NHZ011.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ012-015.
RI...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR RIZ008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ231>235-237-254>256.
     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ230-236-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 251005
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
505 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A QUIET AND MILD DAY WITH SOME GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS THIS MORNING. A WINTER STORM IS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THANKSGIVING DAY. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE HUNG UP ACROSS W
VT/UPSTATE NY AT 09Z. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 50S REGIONWIDE.
NOTING A FEW READINGS IN THE LOWER 60S...WITH 64 DEGS AT KFIT AT
09Z. DEWPTS ALSO REMAIN IN THE LOWER-MID 50S INTO CENTRAL
NH...THOUGH STARTING TO SEE LOWER DEWPTS INTO CENTRAL VT AND
UPSTATE NY /KALB REPORTED 52 DEGS AT 08Z...DOWN TO 47 AT 09Z/. MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHILE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG REMAIN ALONG THE S COAST THOUGH VSBYS HAVE BEEN
IMPROVING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.

FOR TODAY...THE FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS MORNING...AS SEEN ON BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND ECMWF OP MODEL
RUNS. THE LINE OF LIGHT PRECIP NOTED EARLIER THIS MORNING ACROSS
NORTHERN VT/NH HAS DISSIPATED AS IT MOVED NE...SO THIS IS MAINLY A
DEWPT FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH E WITH THE SLOWLY LOWERING H5 HEIGHTS
EVEN THOUGH THE REGION REMAINS IN A GENERAL SW FLOW AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT. EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY VEER TO W DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS E. WITH THIS RIDGE
WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS...SO EXPECT THE MORNING CLOUDS TO PUSH
OFFSHORE...THOUGH MAY LINGER ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS.

COLDER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AS H85
TEMPS...WHICH START OFF FROM +7C TO +11C AT 12Z...WILL DROP BACK
CLOSE TO 0C BY 00Z ACROSS SW NH/W MA...RANGING TO +6C ACROSS CAPE
COD. WITH A HIGH LAUNCHING PAD AND SOME SUNSHINE WORKING
IN...EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE AT LEAST A FEW DEGS THIS MORNING BEFORE
FALLING BACK IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE AS LIGHT W WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO N.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRES TAKES SHAPE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE
TONIGHT. WILL SEE PRECIP BLOSSOM S OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...AND
WILL PUSH INTO S COASTAL AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND QUICKLY SHIFT N
BY DAYBREAK. AS TEMPS FALL BACK CLOSE TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
WELL INLAND...WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW GENERALLY FROM
THE WORCESTER HILLS INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF N CENTRAL CT
WESTWARD. QPF DURING THIS TIME IS RATHER LIGHT...BUT COULD BE
ENOUGH WELL INLAND TO CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS DURING THE MORNING
COMMUTE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

*** EARLY SEASON WINTER STORM TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION WED/WED
  NIGHT ***

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

00Z MODEL SUITE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH SURFACE LOW
TRACKING OVER OR NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...WITH H85 CIRCULATION
MOVING ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS AND H7 LOW DEVELOPING AND
TRACKING OVER BDL-ORH-MHT LINE. 00Z ECMWF ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF
THE ENVELOPE AND 00Z GFS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUID ENVELOPE.
GIVEN EVENT IS STILL 42-48 HRS AWAY /MODEL TIME/ MODEL BLEND STILL
THE MOST SKILLFUL OPTION. THE TRACK MENTIONED ABOVE SUPPORTS
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWS NW OF I-95. THUS HAVE UPGRADED WINTER STORM
WATCHES TO WARNINGS FROM HARTFORD COUNTY NORTHWARD THRU THE I-91
CORRIDOR INTO CHESHIRE COUNTY OF NH AND EASTWARD INTO WORCESTER
COUNTY FOR A HIGH PROBABILITY OF 6+ INCHES.

PTYPE AND SNOWFALL...

WARM BOUNDARY LAYER EARLY WED WILL LEAD TO PRECIP BEGINNING AS RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT THE FAR INTERIOR. HOWEVER STRONG
FORCING FOR ASCENT AND INCREASING PRECIP INTENSITY /COPIOUS GULF AND
ATLC MSTR/ WILL YIELD COOLING VIA DYNAMICAL AND DIABATIC PROCESSES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WET BULB TEMPS BEING REACHED WITH RAIN CHANGING
OVER TO SNOW DURING WED AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
RAIN/SNOW LINE APPEARS TO SETUP SOMEWHERE OVER CENTRAL RI INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA. THESE BOUNDARIES ARE ALWAYS DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT ESPECIALLY AT THIS TIME RANGE. CRITICAL PROCESSES HERE WILL
BE STRONG MID LEVEL FGEN. AS OF NOW THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST STRONG
BANDING FEATURE 18Z WED - 00Z THU OVER CENTRAL CT/NORTHWEST RI
EXTENDING NORTHEAST THRU WORCESTER COUNTY AND INTO NORTHEAST MA
INCLUDING THE GREATER BOSTON AREA. PRECIP INTENSITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS BAND SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW ALONG
WITH SNOW RATES OF 1-2" PER HOUR. IN ADDITION...WITH SURFACE LOW
TRACKING VICINITY OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK COUPLED WITH STRONG PRES
FALLS...SURFACE WINDS OVER NORTHEAST MA INCLUDING BOSTON SHOULD BE
BACKING TO THE NNE. THIS WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL COOLING.
IDEALLY WOULD LIKE TO SEE A 1030+ MB HIGH OVER QUEBEC HELPING TO
WEDGE THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR DOWN THE COASTAL PLAIN FROM ME AND
NH...THERE IS A 1026 HIGH OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC 00Z THU. THIS
COMBINED WITH STRONG PRES FALLS JUST OFFSHORE SHOULD HELP A COASTAL
FRONT DEVELOP. ALL OF THESE FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE INCREASE THE
RISK FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW INTO THE RT-128 CORRIDOR OF EASTERN
MA INCLUDING THE GREATER BOSTON AREA. THUS HAVE EXPANDED THE WATCH
TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL.

OTHERWISE NOT MANY CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. GIVEN PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF SYSTEM...DRY SLOT AND NOT IDEAL SNOW-LIQUID-RATIOS /SLR/
MAX SNOWFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND A FOOT. HIGHEST RISK
WHERE EVER MESO SCALE BANDING SETS UP...WHICH RIGHT NOW APPEARS
SOMEWHERE FROM CENTRAL CT-WORCESTER COUNTY INTO NORTHEAST MA.
OBVIOUSLY THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE GIVEN EVENT IS STILL 42-48 HRS
AWAY.

WINDS...

STRONG LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST JET MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF RI
AND MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. MODELS PROJECTING 50-65
KT AT 925 MB. THIS COUPLED WITH STRONG PRES FALLS AND RELATIVELY
WARM OCEAN WATERS PROVIDING A WELL MIXED BLYR WILL YIELD A MODERATE
RISK OF 60 MPH WIND GUSTS FROM SOUTH COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY/CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS. TIMING OF STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR 4 PM WED TIL 1
AM THU. THUS HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THIS AREA. LATER
SHIFTS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO SURROUND THIS AREA WITH A WIND ADVISORY.

COASTAL FLOODING...

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. GIVEN SHORT DURATION OF ONSHORE WINDS AND PRESSURES
BEGINNING TO RISE TOWARD HIGH TIDE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY COASTAL
FLOOD ISSUES INCLUDING EROSION.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
WILL ROTATE AROUND BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER EASTERN STATES. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS FROM TIME TO TIME. WE
SHOULD SEE BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES SUN AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
NEXT MON. MAY SEE FEW SHOWERS WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR CIGS. S COAST OF RI/MA...IFR-LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN FOG AND PATCHY -RA. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT
ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY 10Z-11Z.

TODAY...IFR TO LOCALLY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE BY AROUND
15Z ALONG THE S COAST. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CIGS AOA 10KFT. MAY
SEE PATCHY CLOUDS AROUND 5-6KFT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS RI/SE
MA. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT THROUGH MIDDAY ALONG S COAST.

TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COASTAL STORM ANTICIPATED. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION SNOWS OVER
INTERIOR TERMINALS IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. +SN POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY BDL-ORH AND POSSIBLY FOR A TIME AT BOS AROUND 00Z THU.
STRONG NE WINDS UP TO 50 KT AT HYA AND ACK AROUND 00Z THU.

FRI...VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...WINDS/SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS MASS/IPSWICH BAYS TO
ALLOW SMALL CRAFT TO EXPIRE AT 09Z. CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS INTO RI/BI SOUNDS THROUGH THE DAY. SEAS
UP TO 11 FT ON THE OPEN WATERS ON SW WINDS GUSTING TO 25
KT...WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH BY EVENING.

TONIGHT...THE LULL BEFORE THE STORM. W WINDS DIMINISH AS THEY VEER
TO NW-N DURING THE NIGHT. SEAS ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS AND
DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS REMAIN AOA 5 FT. HOWEVER...AS
NE WINDS INCREASE DURING WED...GALE AND STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED TO PASS AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK 00Z THU.
HIGH PROB OF NE GALES WITH A LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF STORM FORCE
GUSTS 21Z WED TO 06Z THU. HEAVY RAIN LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST ON OUTER WATERS DUE TO 25KT GUSTS
AND 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR CTZ002.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ003-004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MAZ002>004-008>011.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MAZ019-022>024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-012>016-026.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NHZ011.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ012-015.
RI...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR RIZ008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ231>235-237-254>256.
     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ230-236-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 251005
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
505 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A QUIET AND MILD DAY WITH SOME GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS THIS MORNING. A WINTER STORM IS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THANKSGIVING DAY. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE HUNG UP ACROSS W
VT/UPSTATE NY AT 09Z. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 50S REGIONWIDE.
NOTING A FEW READINGS IN THE LOWER 60S...WITH 64 DEGS AT KFIT AT
09Z. DEWPTS ALSO REMAIN IN THE LOWER-MID 50S INTO CENTRAL
NH...THOUGH STARTING TO SEE LOWER DEWPTS INTO CENTRAL VT AND
UPSTATE NY /KALB REPORTED 52 DEGS AT 08Z...DOWN TO 47 AT 09Z/. MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHILE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG REMAIN ALONG THE S COAST THOUGH VSBYS HAVE BEEN
IMPROVING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.

FOR TODAY...THE FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS MORNING...AS SEEN ON BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND ECMWF OP MODEL
RUNS. THE LINE OF LIGHT PRECIP NOTED EARLIER THIS MORNING ACROSS
NORTHERN VT/NH HAS DISSIPATED AS IT MOVED NE...SO THIS IS MAINLY A
DEWPT FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH E WITH THE SLOWLY LOWERING H5 HEIGHTS
EVEN THOUGH THE REGION REMAINS IN A GENERAL SW FLOW AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT. EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY VEER TO W DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS E. WITH THIS RIDGE
WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS...SO EXPECT THE MORNING CLOUDS TO PUSH
OFFSHORE...THOUGH MAY LINGER ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS.

COLDER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AS H85
TEMPS...WHICH START OFF FROM +7C TO +11C AT 12Z...WILL DROP BACK
CLOSE TO 0C BY 00Z ACROSS SW NH/W MA...RANGING TO +6C ACROSS CAPE
COD. WITH A HIGH LAUNCHING PAD AND SOME SUNSHINE WORKING
IN...EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE AT LEAST A FEW DEGS THIS MORNING BEFORE
FALLING BACK IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE AS LIGHT W WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO N.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRES TAKES SHAPE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE
TONIGHT. WILL SEE PRECIP BLOSSOM S OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...AND
WILL PUSH INTO S COASTAL AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND QUICKLY SHIFT N
BY DAYBREAK. AS TEMPS FALL BACK CLOSE TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
WELL INLAND...WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW GENERALLY FROM
THE WORCESTER HILLS INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF N CENTRAL CT
WESTWARD. QPF DURING THIS TIME IS RATHER LIGHT...BUT COULD BE
ENOUGH WELL INLAND TO CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS DURING THE MORNING
COMMUTE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

*** EARLY SEASON WINTER STORM TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION WED/WED
  NIGHT ***

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

00Z MODEL SUITE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH SURFACE LOW
TRACKING OVER OR NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...WITH H85 CIRCULATION
MOVING ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS AND H7 LOW DEVELOPING AND
TRACKING OVER BDL-ORH-MHT LINE. 00Z ECMWF ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF
THE ENVELOPE AND 00Z GFS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUID ENVELOPE.
GIVEN EVENT IS STILL 42-48 HRS AWAY /MODEL TIME/ MODEL BLEND STILL
THE MOST SKILLFUL OPTION. THE TRACK MENTIONED ABOVE SUPPORTS
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWS NW OF I-95. THUS HAVE UPGRADED WINTER STORM
WATCHES TO WARNINGS FROM HARTFORD COUNTY NORTHWARD THRU THE I-91
CORRIDOR INTO CHESHIRE COUNTY OF NH AND EASTWARD INTO WORCESTER
COUNTY FOR A HIGH PROBABILITY OF 6+ INCHES.

PTYPE AND SNOWFALL...

WARM BOUNDARY LAYER EARLY WED WILL LEAD TO PRECIP BEGINNING AS RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT THE FAR INTERIOR. HOWEVER STRONG
FORCING FOR ASCENT AND INCREASING PRECIP INTENSITY /COPIOUS GULF AND
ATLC MSTR/ WILL YIELD COOLING VIA DYNAMICAL AND DIABATIC PROCESSES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WET BULB TEMPS BEING REACHED WITH RAIN CHANGING
OVER TO SNOW DURING WED AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
RAIN/SNOW LINE APPEARS TO SETUP SOMEWHERE OVER CENTRAL RI INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA. THESE BOUNDARIES ARE ALWAYS DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT ESPECIALLY AT THIS TIME RANGE. CRITICAL PROCESSES HERE WILL
BE STRONG MID LEVEL FGEN. AS OF NOW THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST STRONG
BANDING FEATURE 18Z WED - 00Z THU OVER CENTRAL CT/NORTHWEST RI
EXTENDING NORTHEAST THRU WORCESTER COUNTY AND INTO NORTHEAST MA
INCLUDING THE GREATER BOSTON AREA. PRECIP INTENSITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS BAND SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW ALONG
WITH SNOW RATES OF 1-2" PER HOUR. IN ADDITION...WITH SURFACE LOW
TRACKING VICINITY OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK COUPLED WITH STRONG PRES
FALLS...SURFACE WINDS OVER NORTHEAST MA INCLUDING BOSTON SHOULD BE
BACKING TO THE NNE. THIS WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL COOLING.
IDEALLY WOULD LIKE TO SEE A 1030+ MB HIGH OVER QUEBEC HELPING TO
WEDGE THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR DOWN THE COASTAL PLAIN FROM ME AND
NH...THERE IS A 1026 HIGH OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC 00Z THU. THIS
COMBINED WITH STRONG PRES FALLS JUST OFFSHORE SHOULD HELP A COASTAL
FRONT DEVELOP. ALL OF THESE FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE INCREASE THE
RISK FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW INTO THE RT-128 CORRIDOR OF EASTERN
MA INCLUDING THE GREATER BOSTON AREA. THUS HAVE EXPANDED THE WATCH
TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL.

OTHERWISE NOT MANY CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. GIVEN PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF SYSTEM...DRY SLOT AND NOT IDEAL SNOW-LIQUID-RATIOS /SLR/
MAX SNOWFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND A FOOT. HIGHEST RISK
WHERE EVER MESO SCALE BANDING SETS UP...WHICH RIGHT NOW APPEARS
SOMEWHERE FROM CENTRAL CT-WORCESTER COUNTY INTO NORTHEAST MA.
OBVIOUSLY THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE GIVEN EVENT IS STILL 42-48 HRS
AWAY.

WINDS...

STRONG LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST JET MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF RI
AND MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. MODELS PROJECTING 50-65
KT AT 925 MB. THIS COUPLED WITH STRONG PRES FALLS AND RELATIVELY
WARM OCEAN WATERS PROVIDING A WELL MIXED BLYR WILL YIELD A MODERATE
RISK OF 60 MPH WIND GUSTS FROM SOUTH COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY/CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS. TIMING OF STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR 4 PM WED TIL 1
AM THU. THUS HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THIS AREA. LATER
SHIFTS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO SURROUND THIS AREA WITH A WIND ADVISORY.

COASTAL FLOODING...

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. GIVEN SHORT DURATION OF ONSHORE WINDS AND PRESSURES
BEGINNING TO RISE TOWARD HIGH TIDE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY COASTAL
FLOOD ISSUES INCLUDING EROSION.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
WILL ROTATE AROUND BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER EASTERN STATES. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS FROM TIME TO TIME. WE
SHOULD SEE BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES SUN AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
NEXT MON. MAY SEE FEW SHOWERS WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR CIGS. S COAST OF RI/MA...IFR-LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN FOG AND PATCHY -RA. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT
ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY 10Z-11Z.

TODAY...IFR TO LOCALLY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE BY AROUND
15Z ALONG THE S COAST. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CIGS AOA 10KFT. MAY
SEE PATCHY CLOUDS AROUND 5-6KFT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS RI/SE
MA. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT THROUGH MIDDAY ALONG S COAST.

TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COASTAL STORM ANTICIPATED. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION SNOWS OVER
INTERIOR TERMINALS IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. +SN POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY BDL-ORH AND POSSIBLY FOR A TIME AT BOS AROUND 00Z THU.
STRONG NE WINDS UP TO 50 KT AT HYA AND ACK AROUND 00Z THU.

FRI...VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...WINDS/SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS MASS/IPSWICH BAYS TO
ALLOW SMALL CRAFT TO EXPIRE AT 09Z. CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS INTO RI/BI SOUNDS THROUGH THE DAY. SEAS
UP TO 11 FT ON THE OPEN WATERS ON SW WINDS GUSTING TO 25
KT...WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH BY EVENING.

TONIGHT...THE LULL BEFORE THE STORM. W WINDS DIMINISH AS THEY VEER
TO NW-N DURING THE NIGHT. SEAS ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS AND
DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS REMAIN AOA 5 FT. HOWEVER...AS
NE WINDS INCREASE DURING WED...GALE AND STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED TO PASS AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK 00Z THU.
HIGH PROB OF NE GALES WITH A LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF STORM FORCE
GUSTS 21Z WED TO 06Z THU. HEAVY RAIN LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST ON OUTER WATERS DUE TO 25KT GUSTS
AND 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR CTZ002.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ003-004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MAZ002>004-008>011.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MAZ019-022>024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-012>016-026.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NHZ011.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ012-015.
RI...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR RIZ008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ231>235-237-254>256.
     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ230-236-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 251005
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
505 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A QUIET AND MILD DAY WITH SOME GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS THIS MORNING. A WINTER STORM IS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THANKSGIVING DAY. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE HUNG UP ACROSS W
VT/UPSTATE NY AT 09Z. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 50S REGIONWIDE.
NOTING A FEW READINGS IN THE LOWER 60S...WITH 64 DEGS AT KFIT AT
09Z. DEWPTS ALSO REMAIN IN THE LOWER-MID 50S INTO CENTRAL
NH...THOUGH STARTING TO SEE LOWER DEWPTS INTO CENTRAL VT AND
UPSTATE NY /KALB REPORTED 52 DEGS AT 08Z...DOWN TO 47 AT 09Z/. MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHILE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG REMAIN ALONG THE S COAST THOUGH VSBYS HAVE BEEN
IMPROVING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.

FOR TODAY...THE FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS MORNING...AS SEEN ON BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND ECMWF OP MODEL
RUNS. THE LINE OF LIGHT PRECIP NOTED EARLIER THIS MORNING ACROSS
NORTHERN VT/NH HAS DISSIPATED AS IT MOVED NE...SO THIS IS MAINLY A
DEWPT FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH E WITH THE SLOWLY LOWERING H5 HEIGHTS
EVEN THOUGH THE REGION REMAINS IN A GENERAL SW FLOW AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT. EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY VEER TO W DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS E. WITH THIS RIDGE
WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS...SO EXPECT THE MORNING CLOUDS TO PUSH
OFFSHORE...THOUGH MAY LINGER ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS.

COLDER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AS H85
TEMPS...WHICH START OFF FROM +7C TO +11C AT 12Z...WILL DROP BACK
CLOSE TO 0C BY 00Z ACROSS SW NH/W MA...RANGING TO +6C ACROSS CAPE
COD. WITH A HIGH LAUNCHING PAD AND SOME SUNSHINE WORKING
IN...EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE AT LEAST A FEW DEGS THIS MORNING BEFORE
FALLING BACK IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE AS LIGHT W WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO N.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRES TAKES SHAPE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE
TONIGHT. WILL SEE PRECIP BLOSSOM S OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...AND
WILL PUSH INTO S COASTAL AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND QUICKLY SHIFT N
BY DAYBREAK. AS TEMPS FALL BACK CLOSE TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
WELL INLAND...WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW GENERALLY FROM
THE WORCESTER HILLS INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF N CENTRAL CT
WESTWARD. QPF DURING THIS TIME IS RATHER LIGHT...BUT COULD BE
ENOUGH WELL INLAND TO CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS DURING THE MORNING
COMMUTE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

*** EARLY SEASON WINTER STORM TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION WED/WED
  NIGHT ***

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

00Z MODEL SUITE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH SURFACE LOW
TRACKING OVER OR NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...WITH H85 CIRCULATION
MOVING ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS AND H7 LOW DEVELOPING AND
TRACKING OVER BDL-ORH-MHT LINE. 00Z ECMWF ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF
THE ENVELOPE AND 00Z GFS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUID ENVELOPE.
GIVEN EVENT IS STILL 42-48 HRS AWAY /MODEL TIME/ MODEL BLEND STILL
THE MOST SKILLFUL OPTION. THE TRACK MENTIONED ABOVE SUPPORTS
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWS NW OF I-95. THUS HAVE UPGRADED WINTER STORM
WATCHES TO WARNINGS FROM HARTFORD COUNTY NORTHWARD THRU THE I-91
CORRIDOR INTO CHESHIRE COUNTY OF NH AND EASTWARD INTO WORCESTER
COUNTY FOR A HIGH PROBABILITY OF 6+ INCHES.

PTYPE AND SNOWFALL...

WARM BOUNDARY LAYER EARLY WED WILL LEAD TO PRECIP BEGINNING AS RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT THE FAR INTERIOR. HOWEVER STRONG
FORCING FOR ASCENT AND INCREASING PRECIP INTENSITY /COPIOUS GULF AND
ATLC MSTR/ WILL YIELD COOLING VIA DYNAMICAL AND DIABATIC PROCESSES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WET BULB TEMPS BEING REACHED WITH RAIN CHANGING
OVER TO SNOW DURING WED AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
RAIN/SNOW LINE APPEARS TO SETUP SOMEWHERE OVER CENTRAL RI INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA. THESE BOUNDARIES ARE ALWAYS DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT ESPECIALLY AT THIS TIME RANGE. CRITICAL PROCESSES HERE WILL
BE STRONG MID LEVEL FGEN. AS OF NOW THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST STRONG
BANDING FEATURE 18Z WED - 00Z THU OVER CENTRAL CT/NORTHWEST RI
EXTENDING NORTHEAST THRU WORCESTER COUNTY AND INTO NORTHEAST MA
INCLUDING THE GREATER BOSTON AREA. PRECIP INTENSITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS BAND SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW ALONG
WITH SNOW RATES OF 1-2" PER HOUR. IN ADDITION...WITH SURFACE LOW
TRACKING VICINITY OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK COUPLED WITH STRONG PRES
FALLS...SURFACE WINDS OVER NORTHEAST MA INCLUDING BOSTON SHOULD BE
BACKING TO THE NNE. THIS WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL COOLING.
IDEALLY WOULD LIKE TO SEE A 1030+ MB HIGH OVER QUEBEC HELPING TO
WEDGE THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR DOWN THE COASTAL PLAIN FROM ME AND
NH...THERE IS A 1026 HIGH OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC 00Z THU. THIS
COMBINED WITH STRONG PRES FALLS JUST OFFSHORE SHOULD HELP A COASTAL
FRONT DEVELOP. ALL OF THESE FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE INCREASE THE
RISK FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW INTO THE RT-128 CORRIDOR OF EASTERN
MA INCLUDING THE GREATER BOSTON AREA. THUS HAVE EXPANDED THE WATCH
TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL.

OTHERWISE NOT MANY CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. GIVEN PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF SYSTEM...DRY SLOT AND NOT IDEAL SNOW-LIQUID-RATIOS /SLR/
MAX SNOWFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND A FOOT. HIGHEST RISK
WHERE EVER MESO SCALE BANDING SETS UP...WHICH RIGHT NOW APPEARS
SOMEWHERE FROM CENTRAL CT-WORCESTER COUNTY INTO NORTHEAST MA.
OBVIOUSLY THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE GIVEN EVENT IS STILL 42-48 HRS
AWAY.

WINDS...

STRONG LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST JET MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF RI
AND MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. MODELS PROJECTING 50-65
KT AT 925 MB. THIS COUPLED WITH STRONG PRES FALLS AND RELATIVELY
WARM OCEAN WATERS PROVIDING A WELL MIXED BLYR WILL YIELD A MODERATE
RISK OF 60 MPH WIND GUSTS FROM SOUTH COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY/CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS. TIMING OF STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR 4 PM WED TIL 1
AM THU. THUS HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THIS AREA. LATER
SHIFTS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO SURROUND THIS AREA WITH A WIND ADVISORY.

COASTAL FLOODING...

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. GIVEN SHORT DURATION OF ONSHORE WINDS AND PRESSURES
BEGINNING TO RISE TOWARD HIGH TIDE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY COASTAL
FLOOD ISSUES INCLUDING EROSION.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
WILL ROTATE AROUND BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER EASTERN STATES. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS FROM TIME TO TIME. WE
SHOULD SEE BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES SUN AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
NEXT MON. MAY SEE FEW SHOWERS WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR CIGS. S COAST OF RI/MA...IFR-LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN FOG AND PATCHY -RA. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT
ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY 10Z-11Z.

TODAY...IFR TO LOCALLY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE BY AROUND
15Z ALONG THE S COAST. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CIGS AOA 10KFT. MAY
SEE PATCHY CLOUDS AROUND 5-6KFT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS RI/SE
MA. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT THROUGH MIDDAY ALONG S COAST.

TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COASTAL STORM ANTICIPATED. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION SNOWS OVER
INTERIOR TERMINALS IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. +SN POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY BDL-ORH AND POSSIBLY FOR A TIME AT BOS AROUND 00Z THU.
STRONG NE WINDS UP TO 50 KT AT HYA AND ACK AROUND 00Z THU.

FRI...VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...WINDS/SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS MASS/IPSWICH BAYS TO
ALLOW SMALL CRAFT TO EXPIRE AT 09Z. CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS INTO RI/BI SOUNDS THROUGH THE DAY. SEAS
UP TO 11 FT ON THE OPEN WATERS ON SW WINDS GUSTING TO 25
KT...WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH BY EVENING.

TONIGHT...THE LULL BEFORE THE STORM. W WINDS DIMINISH AS THEY VEER
TO NW-N DURING THE NIGHT. SEAS ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS AND
DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS REMAIN AOA 5 FT. HOWEVER...AS
NE WINDS INCREASE DURING WED...GALE AND STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED TO PASS AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK 00Z THU.
HIGH PROB OF NE GALES WITH A LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF STORM FORCE
GUSTS 21Z WED TO 06Z THU. HEAVY RAIN LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST ON OUTER WATERS DUE TO 25KT GUSTS
AND 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR CTZ002.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ003-004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MAZ002>004-008>011.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MAZ019-022>024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-012>016-026.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NHZ011.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ012-015.
RI...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR RIZ008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ231>235-237-254>256.
     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ230-236-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 251005
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
505 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A QUIET AND MILD DAY WITH SOME GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS THIS MORNING. A WINTER STORM IS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THANKSGIVING DAY. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE HUNG UP ACROSS W
VT/UPSTATE NY AT 09Z. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 50S REGIONWIDE.
NOTING A FEW READINGS IN THE LOWER 60S...WITH 64 DEGS AT KFIT AT
09Z. DEWPTS ALSO REMAIN IN THE LOWER-MID 50S INTO CENTRAL
NH...THOUGH STARTING TO SEE LOWER DEWPTS INTO CENTRAL VT AND
UPSTATE NY /KALB REPORTED 52 DEGS AT 08Z...DOWN TO 47 AT 09Z/. MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHILE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG REMAIN ALONG THE S COAST THOUGH VSBYS HAVE BEEN
IMPROVING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.

FOR TODAY...THE FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS MORNING...AS SEEN ON BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND ECMWF OP MODEL
RUNS. THE LINE OF LIGHT PRECIP NOTED EARLIER THIS MORNING ACROSS
NORTHERN VT/NH HAS DISSIPATED AS IT MOVED NE...SO THIS IS MAINLY A
DEWPT FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH E WITH THE SLOWLY LOWERING H5 HEIGHTS
EVEN THOUGH THE REGION REMAINS IN A GENERAL SW FLOW AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT. EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY VEER TO W DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS E. WITH THIS RIDGE
WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS...SO EXPECT THE MORNING CLOUDS TO PUSH
OFFSHORE...THOUGH MAY LINGER ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS.

COLDER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AS H85
TEMPS...WHICH START OFF FROM +7C TO +11C AT 12Z...WILL DROP BACK
CLOSE TO 0C BY 00Z ACROSS SW NH/W MA...RANGING TO +6C ACROSS CAPE
COD. WITH A HIGH LAUNCHING PAD AND SOME SUNSHINE WORKING
IN...EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE AT LEAST A FEW DEGS THIS MORNING BEFORE
FALLING BACK IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
WEAK RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE AS LIGHT W WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO N.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRES TAKES SHAPE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE
TONIGHT. WILL SEE PRECIP BLOSSOM S OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...AND
WILL PUSH INTO S COASTAL AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND QUICKLY SHIFT N
BY DAYBREAK. AS TEMPS FALL BACK CLOSE TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
WELL INLAND...WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW GENERALLY FROM
THE WORCESTER HILLS INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF N CENTRAL CT
WESTWARD. QPF DURING THIS TIME IS RATHER LIGHT...BUT COULD BE
ENOUGH WELL INLAND TO CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS DURING THE MORNING
COMMUTE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

*** EARLY SEASON WINTER STORM TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION WED/WED
  NIGHT ***

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

00Z MODEL SUITE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH SURFACE LOW
TRACKING OVER OR NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...WITH H85 CIRCULATION
MOVING ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS AND H7 LOW DEVELOPING AND
TRACKING OVER BDL-ORH-MHT LINE. 00Z ECMWF ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF
THE ENVELOPE AND 00Z GFS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUID ENVELOPE.
GIVEN EVENT IS STILL 42-48 HRS AWAY /MODEL TIME/ MODEL BLEND STILL
THE MOST SKILLFUL OPTION. THE TRACK MENTIONED ABOVE SUPPORTS
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWS NW OF I-95. THUS HAVE UPGRADED WINTER STORM
WATCHES TO WARNINGS FROM HARTFORD COUNTY NORTHWARD THRU THE I-91
CORRIDOR INTO CHESHIRE COUNTY OF NH AND EASTWARD INTO WORCESTER
COUNTY FOR A HIGH PROBABILITY OF 6+ INCHES.

PTYPE AND SNOWFALL...

WARM BOUNDARY LAYER EARLY WED WILL LEAD TO PRECIP BEGINNING AS RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT THE FAR INTERIOR. HOWEVER STRONG
FORCING FOR ASCENT AND INCREASING PRECIP INTENSITY /COPIOUS GULF AND
ATLC MSTR/ WILL YIELD COOLING VIA DYNAMICAL AND DIABATIC PROCESSES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WET BULB TEMPS BEING REACHED WITH RAIN CHANGING
OVER TO SNOW DURING WED AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
RAIN/SNOW LINE APPEARS TO SETUP SOMEWHERE OVER CENTRAL RI INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MA. THESE BOUNDARIES ARE ALWAYS DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT ESPECIALLY AT THIS TIME RANGE. CRITICAL PROCESSES HERE WILL
BE STRONG MID LEVEL FGEN. AS OF NOW THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST STRONG
BANDING FEATURE 18Z WED - 00Z THU OVER CENTRAL CT/NORTHWEST RI
EXTENDING NORTHEAST THRU WORCESTER COUNTY AND INTO NORTHEAST MA
INCLUDING THE GREATER BOSTON AREA. PRECIP INTENSITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS BAND SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW ALONG
WITH SNOW RATES OF 1-2" PER HOUR. IN ADDITION...WITH SURFACE LOW
TRACKING VICINITY OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK COUPLED WITH STRONG PRES
FALLS...SURFACE WINDS OVER NORTHEAST MA INCLUDING BOSTON SHOULD BE
BACKING TO THE NNE. THIS WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL COOLING.
IDEALLY WOULD LIKE TO SEE A 1030+ MB HIGH OVER QUEBEC HELPING TO
WEDGE THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR DOWN THE COASTAL PLAIN FROM ME AND
NH...THERE IS A 1026 HIGH OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC 00Z THU. THIS
COMBINED WITH STRONG PRES FALLS JUST OFFSHORE SHOULD HELP A COASTAL
FRONT DEVELOP. ALL OF THESE FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE INCREASE THE
RISK FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW INTO THE RT-128 CORRIDOR OF EASTERN
MA INCLUDING THE GREATER BOSTON AREA. THUS HAVE EXPANDED THE WATCH
TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL.

OTHERWISE NOT MANY CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. GIVEN PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF SYSTEM...DRY SLOT AND NOT IDEAL SNOW-LIQUID-RATIOS /SLR/
MAX SNOWFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND A FOOT. HIGHEST RISK
WHERE EVER MESO SCALE BANDING SETS UP...WHICH RIGHT NOW APPEARS
SOMEWHERE FROM CENTRAL CT-WORCESTER COUNTY INTO NORTHEAST MA.
OBVIOUSLY THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE GIVEN EVENT IS STILL 42-48 HRS
AWAY.

WINDS...

STRONG LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST JET MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF RI
AND MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. MODELS PROJECTING 50-65
KT AT 925 MB. THIS COUPLED WITH STRONG PRES FALLS AND RELATIVELY
WARM OCEAN WATERS PROVIDING A WELL MIXED BLYR WILL YIELD A MODERATE
RISK OF 60 MPH WIND GUSTS FROM SOUTH COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY/CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS. TIMING OF STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR 4 PM WED TIL 1
AM THU. THUS HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THIS AREA. LATER
SHIFTS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO SURROUND THIS AREA WITH A WIND ADVISORY.

COASTAL FLOODING...

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. GIVEN SHORT DURATION OF ONSHORE WINDS AND PRESSURES
BEGINNING TO RISE TOWARD HIGH TIDE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY COASTAL
FLOOD ISSUES INCLUDING EROSION.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
WILL ROTATE AROUND BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER EASTERN STATES. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS FROM TIME TO TIME. WE
SHOULD SEE BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES SUN AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
NEXT MON. MAY SEE FEW SHOWERS WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR CIGS. S COAST OF RI/MA...IFR-LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN FOG AND PATCHY -RA. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT
ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY 10Z-11Z.

TODAY...IFR TO LOCALLY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE BY AROUND
15Z ALONG THE S COAST. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CIGS AOA 10KFT. MAY
SEE PATCHY CLOUDS AROUND 5-6KFT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS RI/SE
MA. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT THROUGH MIDDAY ALONG S COAST.

TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

COASTAL STORM ANTICIPATED. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION SNOWS OVER
INTERIOR TERMINALS IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. +SN POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY BDL-ORH AND POSSIBLY FOR A TIME AT BOS AROUND 00Z THU.
STRONG NE WINDS UP TO 50 KT AT HYA AND ACK AROUND 00Z THU.

FRI...VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...WINDS/SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS MASS/IPSWICH BAYS TO
ALLOW SMALL CRAFT TO EXPIRE AT 09Z. CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS INTO RI/BI SOUNDS THROUGH THE DAY. SEAS
UP TO 11 FT ON THE OPEN WATERS ON SW WINDS GUSTING TO 25
KT...WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH BY EVENING.

TONIGHT...THE LULL BEFORE THE STORM. W WINDS DIMINISH AS THEY VEER
TO NW-N DURING THE NIGHT. SEAS ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS AND
DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS REMAIN AOA 5 FT. HOWEVER...AS
NE WINDS INCREASE DURING WED...GALE AND STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED TO PASS AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK 00Z THU.
HIGH PROB OF NE GALES WITH A LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF STORM FORCE
GUSTS 21Z WED TO 06Z THU. HEAVY RAIN LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST ON OUTER WATERS DUE TO 25KT GUSTS
AND 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR CTZ002.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ003-004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MAZ002>004-008>011.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MAZ019-022>024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-012>016-026.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NHZ011.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ012-015.
RI...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR RIZ008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ231>235-237-254>256.
     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ230-236-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 250954
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
454 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. MILD
CONDITIONS WILL HANG ON TODAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. LOW
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE
TONIGHT...THEN WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST
EXPECT A MIX OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW ALONG WITH STRONG NORTHEAST
WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL HEAD TO NOVA
SCOTIA BY THANKSGIVING MORNING...WITH COLDER CONDITIONS AND
LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE HUNG UP ACROSS W
VT/UPSTATE NY AT 09Z. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 50S REGIONWIDE.
NOTING A FEW READINGS IN THE LOWER 60S...WITH 64 DEGS AT KFIT AT
09Z. DEWPTS ALSO REMAIN IN THE LOWER-MID 50S INTO CENTRAL
NH...THOUGH STARTING TO SEE LOWER DEWPTS INTO CENTRAL VT AND
UPSTATE NY /KALB REPORTED 52 DEGS AT 08Z...DOWN TO 47 AT 09Z/. MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHILE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG REMAIN ALONG THE S COAST THOUGH VSBYS HAVE BEEN
IMPROVING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.

FOR TODAY...THE FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS MORNING...AS SEEN ON BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND ECMWF OP MODEL
RUNS. THE LINE OF LIGHT PRECIP NOTED EARLIER THIS MORNING ACROSS
NORTHERN VT/NH HAS DISSIPATED AS IT MOVED NE...SO THIS IS MAINLY A
DEWPT FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH E WITH THE SLOWLY LOWERING H5 HEIGHTS
EVEN THOUGH THE REGION REMAINS IN A GENERAL SW FLOW AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT. EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY VEER TO W DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS E. WITH THIS RIDGE
WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS...SO EXPECT THE MORNING CLOUDS TO PUSH
OFFSHORE...THOUGH MAY LINGER ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS.

COLDER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AS H85
TEMPS...WHICH START OFF FROM +7C TO +11C AT 12Z...WILL DROP BACK
CLOSE TO 0C BY 00Z ACROSS SW NH/W MA...RANGING TO +6C ACROSS CAPE
COD. WITH A HIGH LAUNCHING PAD AND SOME SUNSHINE WORKING
IN...EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE AT LEAST A FEW DEGS THIS MORNING BEFORE
FALLING BACK IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...

TONIGHT...
WEAK RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE AS LIGHT W WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO N.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRES TAKES SHAPE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE
TONIGHT. WILL SEE PRECIP BLOSSOM S OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...AND
WILL PUSH INTO S COASTAL AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND QUICKLY SHIFT N
BY DAYBREAK. AS TEMPS FALL BACK CLOSE TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
WELL INLAND...WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW GENERALLY FROM
THE WORCESTER HILLS INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF N CENTRAL CT
WESTWARD. QPF DURING THIS TIME IS RATHER LIGHT...BUT COULD BE
ENOUGH WELL INLAND TO CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS DURING THE MORNING
COMMUTE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - NOR`EASTER WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
 - SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WHICH WILL DISRUPT TRAVEL
 - PLOWABLE SNOWS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
 - POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND /CAPE COD - ISLANDS/
 - STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS E MA / CAPE COD / ISLANDS

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

OVERVIEW...

INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NARROWING IN ON A FOCUS OF A STORM TRACK
AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. BUT IT CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO
RESOLVE SPECIFIC DETAILS ACROSS THE REGION. AGAIN...WE REALLY MAY
NOT KNOW THE TRUE OUTCOMES TILL JUST A DAY OR TWO PRIOR.

WEIGHED PREFERENCE UPON THE 24.15Z SREF / 24.12Z GFS ... AND NOW THE
24.12Z ECMWF HAS FINALLY COME ABOARD...HOORAY! NOW WITH A CONSISTENT
STORM-TRACK...IMPACTS BEGIN WEDNESDAY MORNING...INCREASING INTO THE
EVENING WITH THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE STORM
WINDING DOWN THURSDAY MORNING.

SYNOPTICALLY...

BASED ON A PREFERRED MODEL CONSENSUS ABOVE: LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES
FROM THE GULF TUESDAY NE ACROSS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET
AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. ACCOMPANYING H85 LOW PASSES NE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE CAPE COD CANAL TO NW OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK.

DURING WEDNESDAY...BAROCLINIC LEAF / OVER-RUNNING PATTERN OF BROAD-
SCALE ASCENT YIELDS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING DYNAMICALLY COOLING WITH
TIME. WITH SURFACE INTERIOR N-FLOW WITH COASTAL NE-FLOW...AND DRIER
AIR N/W...AM EXPECTING WETBULBING TOWARDS THE DEWPOINT TO AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK THE DIVISION OF WHICH MAY BE ALONG A POSSIBLE COASTAL
FRONT SETUP IMMEDIATELY N/W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. EXPECT INITIAL
RAINS FOR INTERIOR LOCALES CHANGING OVER TO SNOW THROUGH THE DAY...
AS TO THE TIMING OF THAT TRANSITION REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INTENSIFYING LOW SWEEPS NE AROUND THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. WITH A PROGRESSIVE FLOW-PATTERN /+NAO/ AND
ABSENCE OF A CLOSED-LOW ABOVE H85 /MORE EMPHASIS OF AN ANTI-CYCLONIC
BRANCH OF THE WARM CONVEYER BELT/...WITH LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG POLAR-LOW HOLDS ARCTIC AIR
REARWARD ACROSS C-CANADA /+AO/...EXPECTING THERMAL PROFILES AROUND
THE FREEZING MARK OVER INTERIOR S NEW ENGLAND...WHILE MILD OVER THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WITH CONTINUED THINKING OF MAINTAINED COASTAL-FRONT
SETUP PRIOR TO STORM PASSAGE.

PRECIPITATION OUTCOMES...

A FRONT-END THUMP IS ANTICIPATED WITH SLANTWISE FORCING PER FRONTO-
GENESIS NW OF H85 LOW EXTENDED E...ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF WEAK
TROWALING TOWARD THE NW-QUADRANT OF THE H85 LOW. BENEATH ENHANCED
ASCENT PER MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL-JET...STRONG
DEEP-LAYER LIFT THROUGH MOIST DENDRITIC ZONES SHOULD YIELD A NW-SE
PRECIPITATION GRADIENT ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP
IMMEDIATELY NW OF THE SURFACE LOW WHICH AGAIN SWEEPS NE AROUND THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK.

COULD BE TALKING STORM-TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND 1.5-2.0
INCHES FOR SE NEW ENGLAND WITH LESSENING AMOUNTS N/W WITH UP TO
AROUND 0.75-INCHES FOR NW MA AND SW NH. SEE DETAILS BELOW IN THE
THERMAL SETUP DISCUSSION THAT BREAKDOWN WHAT THOSE AMOUNTS COULD
EQUATE TO IN TERMS OF SNOW. AGAIN...INITIAL PRECIP WILL LIKELY START
OUT AS RAIN FOR SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW.

F-GEN SW-NE BANDING IS EVIDENT NW OF THE H85 LOW YET WITH MINOR
INDICATIONS OF STATIC/INERTIAL INSTABILITY PER -EPV. CAN NOT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SW-NE BANDS OF HEAVIER RETURNS PER WSR-88D
RADAR DURING THE EVENT THAT WILL YIELD LOCALLY HIGHER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. ITS LIKELY WE WILL HAVE BETTER HANDLE IN
ANALYZING SUCH OUTCOMES WHEN NEAR-TERM HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
BECOMES AVAILABLE.

THERMAL SETUP / SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...

IF A COASTAL FRONT SETUP EMERGES BENEATH NEAR-ISOTHERMAL PROFILES
AROUND -5C UP TO H7 THEN WOULD EXPECT SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS RANGING
FROM 10:1 TO 15:1 AS SREF METEOGRAMS SUGGEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR...
WITH COASTAL RAINS.

QUITE A RANGE THAT HAS SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
CHALLENGES OF SNOWFALL RATES DURING THE TIME OF DAY /LIKELY WILL SEE
DIFFICULTY IN ACCUMULATING SNOWS DURING THE DAY WITH MARGINALLY COLD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES/...ALSO WET-BULBING TO EQUILIBRIUM WITHIN THE
FIRST 1 KFT ABOVE THE SURFACE...AND WHERE WE WILL EFFECTIVELY WET-
BULB AND/OR WHERE AREAS ARE OVERCOME BY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES.

SO IN ADDITION TO THE INITIAL START/CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...SPEED OF
THE SYSTEM AND IMPACTS TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...AND RANGE OF SNOW-
TO-LIQUID RATIOS...IT IS AN INCREDIBLY HUGE CHALLENGE TO NAIL DOWN
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. ONE KEY TO THIS ENTIRE FORECAST IS THE TRACK OF
THE H85 LOW ALONG WITH H925 TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -2C.

THE DIVIDING FREEZING LINE IS VARIED AMONG PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS
BUT NARROWING DOWN IN VICINITY OF THE AREA BETWEEN THE CT I-395 TO
THE I-90/I-290/I-495 MA CORRIDOR TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

SO AFTER PULLING OUT ALL MY HAIR...INTANGIBLES NOTED ABOVE MAKE THE
SNOWFALL FORECAST TEDIOUS. FEEL DURING THE DAY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL OCCUR AT 32-DEGREES OR BELOW WITH SNOW OCCURRING AT 36-DEGREES
OR LOWER. THIS LOWERED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE PRIOR SHIFT. IN
COLLABORATION WITH WPC...BROAD AREA OF 6+ INCHES WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA W OF NW MA TO NW RI ENCOMPASSING ALL OF CT EXCEPT COASTAL
COMMUNITIES. AMOUNTS AROUND 8-10 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

CONTINUED THINKING THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE WIGGLE ROOM OF THE RAIN-
SNOW BAND DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL PROFILES IN THE FORECAST.
EXPECT CHANGES WITHIN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE GRADIENT ADVERTISED
AROUND THE AREA IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

WINDS...

CONSISTENT NE-FLOW OVER E MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BUT DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG THE
STORM ACTUALLY GETS...WHICH AGAIN IS UNCERTAIN. WIND ADVISORY HEAD-
LINES MAY BE NEEDED...BUT IF THEY ARE WOULD EXPECT THAT IT WOULD BE
ON THE LOW-END OF CRITERIA WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH.

COASTAL FLOODING...

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. ANTICIPATING A SHORT-RESIDENCY TIME OF THE STORM...PERHAPS
A MINOR SURGE AND MAYBE SOME SPLASHOVER IF THE NE-WINDS DISCUSSED
ABOVE VERIFY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
WILL ROTATE AROUND BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER EASTERN STATES. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS FROM TIME TO TIME. WE
SHOULD SEE BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES SUN AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
NEXT MON. MAY SEE FEW SHOWERS WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR CIGS. S COAST OF RI/MA...IFR-LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN FOG AND PATCHY -RA. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT
ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY 10Z-11Z.

TODAY...IFR TO LOCALLY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE BY AROUND
15Z ALONG THE S COAST. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CIGS AOA 10KFT. MAY
SEE PATCHY CLOUDS AROUND 5-6KFT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS RI/SE
MA. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT THROUGH MIDDAY ALONG S COAST.

TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION SNOWS OVER INTERIOR
TERMINALS IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. +SN POSSIBLE.
AROUND 40 KT NE-WINDS ACROSS E MA / CAPE COD / ISLANDS...ALONG
WITH +RA. MIX OF IFR-VLIFR CONDITIONS.

FRI...VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...WINDS/SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS MASS/IPSWICH BAYS TO
ALLOW SMALL CRAFT TO EXPIRE AT 09Z. CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS INTO RI/BI SOUNDS THROUGH THE DAY. SEAS
UP TO 11 FT ON THE OPEN WATERS ON SW WINDS GUSTING TO 25
KT...WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH BY EVENING.

TONIGHT...THE LULL BEFORE THE STORM. W WINDS DIMINISH AS THEY VEER
TO NW-N DURING THE NIGHT. SEAS ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS AND
DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS REMAIN AOA 5 FT. HOWEVER...AS
NE WINDS INCREASE DURING WED...GALE AND STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED PASSING NE AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF
NANTUCKET MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. LIKELY NE GALES OVER E MA / CAPE COD /
ISLANDS...AND ALL WATERS. HEAVY RAIN LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST ON OUTER WATERS DUE TO 25KT GUSTS
AND 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR CTZ002.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ003-004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MAZ002>004-008>011.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MAZ019-022>024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-012>016-026.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NHZ011.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ012-015.
RI...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR RIZ008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ231>235-237-254>256.
     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ230-236-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...EVT/JWD
MARINE...EVT/JWD




000
FXUS61 KBOX 250954
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
454 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. MILD
CONDITIONS WILL HANG ON TODAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. LOW
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE
TONIGHT...THEN WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST
EXPECT A MIX OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW ALONG WITH STRONG NORTHEAST
WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL HEAD TO NOVA
SCOTIA BY THANKSGIVING MORNING...WITH COLDER CONDITIONS AND
LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE HUNG UP ACROSS W
VT/UPSTATE NY AT 09Z. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 50S REGIONWIDE.
NOTING A FEW READINGS IN THE LOWER 60S...WITH 64 DEGS AT KFIT AT
09Z. DEWPTS ALSO REMAIN IN THE LOWER-MID 50S INTO CENTRAL
NH...THOUGH STARTING TO SEE LOWER DEWPTS INTO CENTRAL VT AND
UPSTATE NY /KALB REPORTED 52 DEGS AT 08Z...DOWN TO 47 AT 09Z/. MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHILE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG REMAIN ALONG THE S COAST THOUGH VSBYS HAVE BEEN
IMPROVING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.

FOR TODAY...THE FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS MORNING...AS SEEN ON BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND ECMWF OP MODEL
RUNS. THE LINE OF LIGHT PRECIP NOTED EARLIER THIS MORNING ACROSS
NORTHERN VT/NH HAS DISSIPATED AS IT MOVED NE...SO THIS IS MAINLY A
DEWPT FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH E WITH THE SLOWLY LOWERING H5 HEIGHTS
EVEN THOUGH THE REGION REMAINS IN A GENERAL SW FLOW AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT. EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY VEER TO W DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS E. WITH THIS RIDGE
WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS...SO EXPECT THE MORNING CLOUDS TO PUSH
OFFSHORE...THOUGH MAY LINGER ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS.

COLDER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AS H85
TEMPS...WHICH START OFF FROM +7C TO +11C AT 12Z...WILL DROP BACK
CLOSE TO 0C BY 00Z ACROSS SW NH/W MA...RANGING TO +6C ACROSS CAPE
COD. WITH A HIGH LAUNCHING PAD AND SOME SUNSHINE WORKING
IN...EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE AT LEAST A FEW DEGS THIS MORNING BEFORE
FALLING BACK IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...

TONIGHT...
WEAK RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE AS LIGHT W WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO N.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRES TAKES SHAPE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE
TONIGHT. WILL SEE PRECIP BLOSSOM S OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...AND
WILL PUSH INTO S COASTAL AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND QUICKLY SHIFT N
BY DAYBREAK. AS TEMPS FALL BACK CLOSE TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
WELL INLAND...WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW GENERALLY FROM
THE WORCESTER HILLS INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF N CENTRAL CT
WESTWARD. QPF DURING THIS TIME IS RATHER LIGHT...BUT COULD BE
ENOUGH WELL INLAND TO CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS DURING THE MORNING
COMMUTE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - NOR`EASTER WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
 - SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WHICH WILL DISRUPT TRAVEL
 - PLOWABLE SNOWS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
 - POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND /CAPE COD - ISLANDS/
 - STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS E MA / CAPE COD / ISLANDS

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

OVERVIEW...

INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NARROWING IN ON A FOCUS OF A STORM TRACK
AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. BUT IT CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO
RESOLVE SPECIFIC DETAILS ACROSS THE REGION. AGAIN...WE REALLY MAY
NOT KNOW THE TRUE OUTCOMES TILL JUST A DAY OR TWO PRIOR.

WEIGHED PREFERENCE UPON THE 24.15Z SREF / 24.12Z GFS ... AND NOW THE
24.12Z ECMWF HAS FINALLY COME ABOARD...HOORAY! NOW WITH A CONSISTENT
STORM-TRACK...IMPACTS BEGIN WEDNESDAY MORNING...INCREASING INTO THE
EVENING WITH THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE STORM
WINDING DOWN THURSDAY MORNING.

SYNOPTICALLY...

BASED ON A PREFERRED MODEL CONSENSUS ABOVE: LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES
FROM THE GULF TUESDAY NE ACROSS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET
AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. ACCOMPANYING H85 LOW PASSES NE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE CAPE COD CANAL TO NW OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK.

DURING WEDNESDAY...BAROCLINIC LEAF / OVER-RUNNING PATTERN OF BROAD-
SCALE ASCENT YIELDS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING DYNAMICALLY COOLING WITH
TIME. WITH SURFACE INTERIOR N-FLOW WITH COASTAL NE-FLOW...AND DRIER
AIR N/W...AM EXPECTING WETBULBING TOWARDS THE DEWPOINT TO AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK THE DIVISION OF WHICH MAY BE ALONG A POSSIBLE COASTAL
FRONT SETUP IMMEDIATELY N/W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. EXPECT INITIAL
RAINS FOR INTERIOR LOCALES CHANGING OVER TO SNOW THROUGH THE DAY...
AS TO THE TIMING OF THAT TRANSITION REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INTENSIFYING LOW SWEEPS NE AROUND THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. WITH A PROGRESSIVE FLOW-PATTERN /+NAO/ AND
ABSENCE OF A CLOSED-LOW ABOVE H85 /MORE EMPHASIS OF AN ANTI-CYCLONIC
BRANCH OF THE WARM CONVEYER BELT/...WITH LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG POLAR-LOW HOLDS ARCTIC AIR
REARWARD ACROSS C-CANADA /+AO/...EXPECTING THERMAL PROFILES AROUND
THE FREEZING MARK OVER INTERIOR S NEW ENGLAND...WHILE MILD OVER THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WITH CONTINUED THINKING OF MAINTAINED COASTAL-FRONT
SETUP PRIOR TO STORM PASSAGE.

PRECIPITATION OUTCOMES...

A FRONT-END THUMP IS ANTICIPATED WITH SLANTWISE FORCING PER FRONTO-
GENESIS NW OF H85 LOW EXTENDED E...ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF WEAK
TROWALING TOWARD THE NW-QUADRANT OF THE H85 LOW. BENEATH ENHANCED
ASCENT PER MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL-JET...STRONG
DEEP-LAYER LIFT THROUGH MOIST DENDRITIC ZONES SHOULD YIELD A NW-SE
PRECIPITATION GRADIENT ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP
IMMEDIATELY NW OF THE SURFACE LOW WHICH AGAIN SWEEPS NE AROUND THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK.

COULD BE TALKING STORM-TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND 1.5-2.0
INCHES FOR SE NEW ENGLAND WITH LESSENING AMOUNTS N/W WITH UP TO
AROUND 0.75-INCHES FOR NW MA AND SW NH. SEE DETAILS BELOW IN THE
THERMAL SETUP DISCUSSION THAT BREAKDOWN WHAT THOSE AMOUNTS COULD
EQUATE TO IN TERMS OF SNOW. AGAIN...INITIAL PRECIP WILL LIKELY START
OUT AS RAIN FOR SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW.

F-GEN SW-NE BANDING IS EVIDENT NW OF THE H85 LOW YET WITH MINOR
INDICATIONS OF STATIC/INERTIAL INSTABILITY PER -EPV. CAN NOT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SW-NE BANDS OF HEAVIER RETURNS PER WSR-88D
RADAR DURING THE EVENT THAT WILL YIELD LOCALLY HIGHER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. ITS LIKELY WE WILL HAVE BETTER HANDLE IN
ANALYZING SUCH OUTCOMES WHEN NEAR-TERM HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
BECOMES AVAILABLE.

THERMAL SETUP / SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...

IF A COASTAL FRONT SETUP EMERGES BENEATH NEAR-ISOTHERMAL PROFILES
AROUND -5C UP TO H7 THEN WOULD EXPECT SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS RANGING
FROM 10:1 TO 15:1 AS SREF METEOGRAMS SUGGEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR...
WITH COASTAL RAINS.

QUITE A RANGE THAT HAS SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
CHALLENGES OF SNOWFALL RATES DURING THE TIME OF DAY /LIKELY WILL SEE
DIFFICULTY IN ACCUMULATING SNOWS DURING THE DAY WITH MARGINALLY COLD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES/...ALSO WET-BULBING TO EQUILIBRIUM WITHIN THE
FIRST 1 KFT ABOVE THE SURFACE...AND WHERE WE WILL EFFECTIVELY WET-
BULB AND/OR WHERE AREAS ARE OVERCOME BY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES.

SO IN ADDITION TO THE INITIAL START/CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...SPEED OF
THE SYSTEM AND IMPACTS TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...AND RANGE OF SNOW-
TO-LIQUID RATIOS...IT IS AN INCREDIBLY HUGE CHALLENGE TO NAIL DOWN
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. ONE KEY TO THIS ENTIRE FORECAST IS THE TRACK OF
THE H85 LOW ALONG WITH H925 TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -2C.

THE DIVIDING FREEZING LINE IS VARIED AMONG PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS
BUT NARROWING DOWN IN VICINITY OF THE AREA BETWEEN THE CT I-395 TO
THE I-90/I-290/I-495 MA CORRIDOR TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

SO AFTER PULLING OUT ALL MY HAIR...INTANGIBLES NOTED ABOVE MAKE THE
SNOWFALL FORECAST TEDIOUS. FEEL DURING THE DAY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL OCCUR AT 32-DEGREES OR BELOW WITH SNOW OCCURRING AT 36-DEGREES
OR LOWER. THIS LOWERED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE PRIOR SHIFT. IN
COLLABORATION WITH WPC...BROAD AREA OF 6+ INCHES WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA W OF NW MA TO NW RI ENCOMPASSING ALL OF CT EXCEPT COASTAL
COMMUNITIES. AMOUNTS AROUND 8-10 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

CONTINUED THINKING THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE WIGGLE ROOM OF THE RAIN-
SNOW BAND DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL PROFILES IN THE FORECAST.
EXPECT CHANGES WITHIN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE GRADIENT ADVERTISED
AROUND THE AREA IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

WINDS...

CONSISTENT NE-FLOW OVER E MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BUT DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG THE
STORM ACTUALLY GETS...WHICH AGAIN IS UNCERTAIN. WIND ADVISORY HEAD-
LINES MAY BE NEEDED...BUT IF THEY ARE WOULD EXPECT THAT IT WOULD BE
ON THE LOW-END OF CRITERIA WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH.

COASTAL FLOODING...

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. ANTICIPATING A SHORT-RESIDENCY TIME OF THE STORM...PERHAPS
A MINOR SURGE AND MAYBE SOME SPLASHOVER IF THE NE-WINDS DISCUSSED
ABOVE VERIFY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
WILL ROTATE AROUND BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER EASTERN STATES. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS FROM TIME TO TIME. WE
SHOULD SEE BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES SUN AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
NEXT MON. MAY SEE FEW SHOWERS WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR CIGS. S COAST OF RI/MA...IFR-LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN FOG AND PATCHY -RA. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT
ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY 10Z-11Z.

TODAY...IFR TO LOCALLY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE BY AROUND
15Z ALONG THE S COAST. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CIGS AOA 10KFT. MAY
SEE PATCHY CLOUDS AROUND 5-6KFT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS RI/SE
MA. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT THROUGH MIDDAY ALONG S COAST.

TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION SNOWS OVER INTERIOR
TERMINALS IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. +SN POSSIBLE.
AROUND 40 KT NE-WINDS ACROSS E MA / CAPE COD / ISLANDS...ALONG
WITH +RA. MIX OF IFR-VLIFR CONDITIONS.

FRI...VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...WINDS/SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS MASS/IPSWICH BAYS TO
ALLOW SMALL CRAFT TO EXPIRE AT 09Z. CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS INTO RI/BI SOUNDS THROUGH THE DAY. SEAS
UP TO 11 FT ON THE OPEN WATERS ON SW WINDS GUSTING TO 25
KT...WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH BY EVENING.

TONIGHT...THE LULL BEFORE THE STORM. W WINDS DIMINISH AS THEY VEER
TO NW-N DURING THE NIGHT. SEAS ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS AND
DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS REMAIN AOA 5 FT. HOWEVER...AS
NE WINDS INCREASE DURING WED...GALE AND STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED PASSING NE AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF
NANTUCKET MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. LIKELY NE GALES OVER E MA / CAPE COD /
ISLANDS...AND ALL WATERS. HEAVY RAIN LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST ON OUTER WATERS DUE TO 25KT GUSTS
AND 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR CTZ002.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ003-004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MAZ002>004-008>011.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MAZ019-022>024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-012>016-026.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NHZ011.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ012-015.
RI...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR RIZ008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ231>235-237-254>256.
     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ230-236-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...EVT/JWD
MARINE...EVT/JWD




000
FXUS61 KBOX 250954
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
454 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. MILD
CONDITIONS WILL HANG ON TODAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. LOW
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE
TONIGHT...THEN WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST
EXPECT A MIX OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW ALONG WITH STRONG NORTHEAST
WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL HEAD TO NOVA
SCOTIA BY THANKSGIVING MORNING...WITH COLDER CONDITIONS AND
LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE HUNG UP ACROSS W
VT/UPSTATE NY AT 09Z. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 50S REGIONWIDE.
NOTING A FEW READINGS IN THE LOWER 60S...WITH 64 DEGS AT KFIT AT
09Z. DEWPTS ALSO REMAIN IN THE LOWER-MID 50S INTO CENTRAL
NH...THOUGH STARTING TO SEE LOWER DEWPTS INTO CENTRAL VT AND
UPSTATE NY /KALB REPORTED 52 DEGS AT 08Z...DOWN TO 47 AT 09Z/. MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHILE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG REMAIN ALONG THE S COAST THOUGH VSBYS HAVE BEEN
IMPROVING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.

FOR TODAY...THE FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS MORNING...AS SEEN ON BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND ECMWF OP MODEL
RUNS. THE LINE OF LIGHT PRECIP NOTED EARLIER THIS MORNING ACROSS
NORTHERN VT/NH HAS DISSIPATED AS IT MOVED NE...SO THIS IS MAINLY A
DEWPT FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH E WITH THE SLOWLY LOWERING H5 HEIGHTS
EVEN THOUGH THE REGION REMAINS IN A GENERAL SW FLOW AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT. EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY VEER TO W DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS E. WITH THIS RIDGE
WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS...SO EXPECT THE MORNING CLOUDS TO PUSH
OFFSHORE...THOUGH MAY LINGER ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS.

COLDER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AS H85
TEMPS...WHICH START OFF FROM +7C TO +11C AT 12Z...WILL DROP BACK
CLOSE TO 0C BY 00Z ACROSS SW NH/W MA...RANGING TO +6C ACROSS CAPE
COD. WITH A HIGH LAUNCHING PAD AND SOME SUNSHINE WORKING
IN...EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE AT LEAST A FEW DEGS THIS MORNING BEFORE
FALLING BACK IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...

TONIGHT...
WEAK RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE AS LIGHT W WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO N.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRES TAKES SHAPE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE
TONIGHT. WILL SEE PRECIP BLOSSOM S OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...AND
WILL PUSH INTO S COASTAL AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND QUICKLY SHIFT N
BY DAYBREAK. AS TEMPS FALL BACK CLOSE TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
WELL INLAND...WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW GENERALLY FROM
THE WORCESTER HILLS INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF N CENTRAL CT
WESTWARD. QPF DURING THIS TIME IS RATHER LIGHT...BUT COULD BE
ENOUGH WELL INLAND TO CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS DURING THE MORNING
COMMUTE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - NOR`EASTER WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
 - SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WHICH WILL DISRUPT TRAVEL
 - PLOWABLE SNOWS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
 - POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND /CAPE COD - ISLANDS/
 - STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS E MA / CAPE COD / ISLANDS

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

OVERVIEW...

INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NARROWING IN ON A FOCUS OF A STORM TRACK
AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. BUT IT CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO
RESOLVE SPECIFIC DETAILS ACROSS THE REGION. AGAIN...WE REALLY MAY
NOT KNOW THE TRUE OUTCOMES TILL JUST A DAY OR TWO PRIOR.

WEIGHED PREFERENCE UPON THE 24.15Z SREF / 24.12Z GFS ... AND NOW THE
24.12Z ECMWF HAS FINALLY COME ABOARD...HOORAY! NOW WITH A CONSISTENT
STORM-TRACK...IMPACTS BEGIN WEDNESDAY MORNING...INCREASING INTO THE
EVENING WITH THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE STORM
WINDING DOWN THURSDAY MORNING.

SYNOPTICALLY...

BASED ON A PREFERRED MODEL CONSENSUS ABOVE: LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES
FROM THE GULF TUESDAY NE ACROSS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET
AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. ACCOMPANYING H85 LOW PASSES NE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE CAPE COD CANAL TO NW OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK.

DURING WEDNESDAY...BAROCLINIC LEAF / OVER-RUNNING PATTERN OF BROAD-
SCALE ASCENT YIELDS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING DYNAMICALLY COOLING WITH
TIME. WITH SURFACE INTERIOR N-FLOW WITH COASTAL NE-FLOW...AND DRIER
AIR N/W...AM EXPECTING WETBULBING TOWARDS THE DEWPOINT TO AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK THE DIVISION OF WHICH MAY BE ALONG A POSSIBLE COASTAL
FRONT SETUP IMMEDIATELY N/W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. EXPECT INITIAL
RAINS FOR INTERIOR LOCALES CHANGING OVER TO SNOW THROUGH THE DAY...
AS TO THE TIMING OF THAT TRANSITION REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INTENSIFYING LOW SWEEPS NE AROUND THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. WITH A PROGRESSIVE FLOW-PATTERN /+NAO/ AND
ABSENCE OF A CLOSED-LOW ABOVE H85 /MORE EMPHASIS OF AN ANTI-CYCLONIC
BRANCH OF THE WARM CONVEYER BELT/...WITH LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG POLAR-LOW HOLDS ARCTIC AIR
REARWARD ACROSS C-CANADA /+AO/...EXPECTING THERMAL PROFILES AROUND
THE FREEZING MARK OVER INTERIOR S NEW ENGLAND...WHILE MILD OVER THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WITH CONTINUED THINKING OF MAINTAINED COASTAL-FRONT
SETUP PRIOR TO STORM PASSAGE.

PRECIPITATION OUTCOMES...

A FRONT-END THUMP IS ANTICIPATED WITH SLANTWISE FORCING PER FRONTO-
GENESIS NW OF H85 LOW EXTENDED E...ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF WEAK
TROWALING TOWARD THE NW-QUADRANT OF THE H85 LOW. BENEATH ENHANCED
ASCENT PER MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL-JET...STRONG
DEEP-LAYER LIFT THROUGH MOIST DENDRITIC ZONES SHOULD YIELD A NW-SE
PRECIPITATION GRADIENT ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP
IMMEDIATELY NW OF THE SURFACE LOW WHICH AGAIN SWEEPS NE AROUND THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK.

COULD BE TALKING STORM-TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND 1.5-2.0
INCHES FOR SE NEW ENGLAND WITH LESSENING AMOUNTS N/W WITH UP TO
AROUND 0.75-INCHES FOR NW MA AND SW NH. SEE DETAILS BELOW IN THE
THERMAL SETUP DISCUSSION THAT BREAKDOWN WHAT THOSE AMOUNTS COULD
EQUATE TO IN TERMS OF SNOW. AGAIN...INITIAL PRECIP WILL LIKELY START
OUT AS RAIN FOR SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW.

F-GEN SW-NE BANDING IS EVIDENT NW OF THE H85 LOW YET WITH MINOR
INDICATIONS OF STATIC/INERTIAL INSTABILITY PER -EPV. CAN NOT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SW-NE BANDS OF HEAVIER RETURNS PER WSR-88D
RADAR DURING THE EVENT THAT WILL YIELD LOCALLY HIGHER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. ITS LIKELY WE WILL HAVE BETTER HANDLE IN
ANALYZING SUCH OUTCOMES WHEN NEAR-TERM HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
BECOMES AVAILABLE.

THERMAL SETUP / SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...

IF A COASTAL FRONT SETUP EMERGES BENEATH NEAR-ISOTHERMAL PROFILES
AROUND -5C UP TO H7 THEN WOULD EXPECT SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS RANGING
FROM 10:1 TO 15:1 AS SREF METEOGRAMS SUGGEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR...
WITH COASTAL RAINS.

QUITE A RANGE THAT HAS SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
CHALLENGES OF SNOWFALL RATES DURING THE TIME OF DAY /LIKELY WILL SEE
DIFFICULTY IN ACCUMULATING SNOWS DURING THE DAY WITH MARGINALLY COLD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES/...ALSO WET-BULBING TO EQUILIBRIUM WITHIN THE
FIRST 1 KFT ABOVE THE SURFACE...AND WHERE WE WILL EFFECTIVELY WET-
BULB AND/OR WHERE AREAS ARE OVERCOME BY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES.

SO IN ADDITION TO THE INITIAL START/CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...SPEED OF
THE SYSTEM AND IMPACTS TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...AND RANGE OF SNOW-
TO-LIQUID RATIOS...IT IS AN INCREDIBLY HUGE CHALLENGE TO NAIL DOWN
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. ONE KEY TO THIS ENTIRE FORECAST IS THE TRACK OF
THE H85 LOW ALONG WITH H925 TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -2C.

THE DIVIDING FREEZING LINE IS VARIED AMONG PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS
BUT NARROWING DOWN IN VICINITY OF THE AREA BETWEEN THE CT I-395 TO
THE I-90/I-290/I-495 MA CORRIDOR TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

SO AFTER PULLING OUT ALL MY HAIR...INTANGIBLES NOTED ABOVE MAKE THE
SNOWFALL FORECAST TEDIOUS. FEEL DURING THE DAY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL OCCUR AT 32-DEGREES OR BELOW WITH SNOW OCCURRING AT 36-DEGREES
OR LOWER. THIS LOWERED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE PRIOR SHIFT. IN
COLLABORATION WITH WPC...BROAD AREA OF 6+ INCHES WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA W OF NW MA TO NW RI ENCOMPASSING ALL OF CT EXCEPT COASTAL
COMMUNITIES. AMOUNTS AROUND 8-10 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

CONTINUED THINKING THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE WIGGLE ROOM OF THE RAIN-
SNOW BAND DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL PROFILES IN THE FORECAST.
EXPECT CHANGES WITHIN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE GRADIENT ADVERTISED
AROUND THE AREA IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

WINDS...

CONSISTENT NE-FLOW OVER E MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BUT DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG THE
STORM ACTUALLY GETS...WHICH AGAIN IS UNCERTAIN. WIND ADVISORY HEAD-
LINES MAY BE NEEDED...BUT IF THEY ARE WOULD EXPECT THAT IT WOULD BE
ON THE LOW-END OF CRITERIA WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH.

COASTAL FLOODING...

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. ANTICIPATING A SHORT-RESIDENCY TIME OF THE STORM...PERHAPS
A MINOR SURGE AND MAYBE SOME SPLASHOVER IF THE NE-WINDS DISCUSSED
ABOVE VERIFY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
WILL ROTATE AROUND BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER EASTERN STATES. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS FROM TIME TO TIME. WE
SHOULD SEE BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES SUN AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
NEXT MON. MAY SEE FEW SHOWERS WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR CIGS. S COAST OF RI/MA...IFR-LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN FOG AND PATCHY -RA. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT
ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY 10Z-11Z.

TODAY...IFR TO LOCALLY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE BY AROUND
15Z ALONG THE S COAST. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CIGS AOA 10KFT. MAY
SEE PATCHY CLOUDS AROUND 5-6KFT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS RI/SE
MA. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT THROUGH MIDDAY ALONG S COAST.

TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION SNOWS OVER INTERIOR
TERMINALS IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. +SN POSSIBLE.
AROUND 40 KT NE-WINDS ACROSS E MA / CAPE COD / ISLANDS...ALONG
WITH +RA. MIX OF IFR-VLIFR CONDITIONS.

FRI...VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...WINDS/SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS MASS/IPSWICH BAYS TO
ALLOW SMALL CRAFT TO EXPIRE AT 09Z. CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS INTO RI/BI SOUNDS THROUGH THE DAY. SEAS
UP TO 11 FT ON THE OPEN WATERS ON SW WINDS GUSTING TO 25
KT...WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH BY EVENING.

TONIGHT...THE LULL BEFORE THE STORM. W WINDS DIMINISH AS THEY VEER
TO NW-N DURING THE NIGHT. SEAS ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS AND
DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS REMAIN AOA 5 FT. HOWEVER...AS
NE WINDS INCREASE DURING WED...GALE AND STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED PASSING NE AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF
NANTUCKET MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. LIKELY NE GALES OVER E MA / CAPE COD /
ISLANDS...AND ALL WATERS. HEAVY RAIN LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST ON OUTER WATERS DUE TO 25KT GUSTS
AND 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR CTZ002.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ003-004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MAZ002>004-008>011.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MAZ019-022>024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-012>016-026.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NHZ011.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ012-015.
RI...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR RIZ008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ231>235-237-254>256.
     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ230-236-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...EVT/JWD
MARINE...EVT/JWD




000
FXUS61 KBOX 250954
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
454 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. MILD
CONDITIONS WILL HANG ON TODAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. LOW
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE
TONIGHT...THEN WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST
EXPECT A MIX OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW ALONG WITH STRONG NORTHEAST
WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL HEAD TO NOVA
SCOTIA BY THANKSGIVING MORNING...WITH COLDER CONDITIONS AND
LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE HUNG UP ACROSS W
VT/UPSTATE NY AT 09Z. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 50S REGIONWIDE.
NOTING A FEW READINGS IN THE LOWER 60S...WITH 64 DEGS AT KFIT AT
09Z. DEWPTS ALSO REMAIN IN THE LOWER-MID 50S INTO CENTRAL
NH...THOUGH STARTING TO SEE LOWER DEWPTS INTO CENTRAL VT AND
UPSTATE NY /KALB REPORTED 52 DEGS AT 08Z...DOWN TO 47 AT 09Z/. MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHILE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG REMAIN ALONG THE S COAST THOUGH VSBYS HAVE BEEN
IMPROVING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.

FOR TODAY...THE FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS MORNING...AS SEEN ON BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND ECMWF OP MODEL
RUNS. THE LINE OF LIGHT PRECIP NOTED EARLIER THIS MORNING ACROSS
NORTHERN VT/NH HAS DISSIPATED AS IT MOVED NE...SO THIS IS MAINLY A
DEWPT FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH E WITH THE SLOWLY LOWERING H5 HEIGHTS
EVEN THOUGH THE REGION REMAINS IN A GENERAL SW FLOW AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT. EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY VEER TO W DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS E. WITH THIS RIDGE
WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS...SO EXPECT THE MORNING CLOUDS TO PUSH
OFFSHORE...THOUGH MAY LINGER ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS.

COLDER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AS H85
TEMPS...WHICH START OFF FROM +7C TO +11C AT 12Z...WILL DROP BACK
CLOSE TO 0C BY 00Z ACROSS SW NH/W MA...RANGING TO +6C ACROSS CAPE
COD. WITH A HIGH LAUNCHING PAD AND SOME SUNSHINE WORKING
IN...EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE AT LEAST A FEW DEGS THIS MORNING BEFORE
FALLING BACK IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...

TONIGHT...
WEAK RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE AS LIGHT W WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO N.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRES TAKES SHAPE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE
TONIGHT. WILL SEE PRECIP BLOSSOM S OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...AND
WILL PUSH INTO S COASTAL AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND QUICKLY SHIFT N
BY DAYBREAK. AS TEMPS FALL BACK CLOSE TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
WELL INLAND...WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW GENERALLY FROM
THE WORCESTER HILLS INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF N CENTRAL CT
WESTWARD. QPF DURING THIS TIME IS RATHER LIGHT...BUT COULD BE
ENOUGH WELL INLAND TO CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS DURING THE MORNING
COMMUTE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - NOR`EASTER WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
 - SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WHICH WILL DISRUPT TRAVEL
 - PLOWABLE SNOWS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
 - POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND /CAPE COD - ISLANDS/
 - STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS E MA / CAPE COD / ISLANDS

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

OVERVIEW...

INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NARROWING IN ON A FOCUS OF A STORM TRACK
AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. BUT IT CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO
RESOLVE SPECIFIC DETAILS ACROSS THE REGION. AGAIN...WE REALLY MAY
NOT KNOW THE TRUE OUTCOMES TILL JUST A DAY OR TWO PRIOR.

WEIGHED PREFERENCE UPON THE 24.15Z SREF / 24.12Z GFS ... AND NOW THE
24.12Z ECMWF HAS FINALLY COME ABOARD...HOORAY! NOW WITH A CONSISTENT
STORM-TRACK...IMPACTS BEGIN WEDNESDAY MORNING...INCREASING INTO THE
EVENING WITH THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE STORM
WINDING DOWN THURSDAY MORNING.

SYNOPTICALLY...

BASED ON A PREFERRED MODEL CONSENSUS ABOVE: LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES
FROM THE GULF TUESDAY NE ACROSS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET
AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. ACCOMPANYING H85 LOW PASSES NE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE CAPE COD CANAL TO NW OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK.

DURING WEDNESDAY...BAROCLINIC LEAF / OVER-RUNNING PATTERN OF BROAD-
SCALE ASCENT YIELDS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING DYNAMICALLY COOLING WITH
TIME. WITH SURFACE INTERIOR N-FLOW WITH COASTAL NE-FLOW...AND DRIER
AIR N/W...AM EXPECTING WETBULBING TOWARDS THE DEWPOINT TO AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK THE DIVISION OF WHICH MAY BE ALONG A POSSIBLE COASTAL
FRONT SETUP IMMEDIATELY N/W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. EXPECT INITIAL
RAINS FOR INTERIOR LOCALES CHANGING OVER TO SNOW THROUGH THE DAY...
AS TO THE TIMING OF THAT TRANSITION REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INTENSIFYING LOW SWEEPS NE AROUND THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. WITH A PROGRESSIVE FLOW-PATTERN /+NAO/ AND
ABSENCE OF A CLOSED-LOW ABOVE H85 /MORE EMPHASIS OF AN ANTI-CYCLONIC
BRANCH OF THE WARM CONVEYER BELT/...WITH LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG POLAR-LOW HOLDS ARCTIC AIR
REARWARD ACROSS C-CANADA /+AO/...EXPECTING THERMAL PROFILES AROUND
THE FREEZING MARK OVER INTERIOR S NEW ENGLAND...WHILE MILD OVER THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WITH CONTINUED THINKING OF MAINTAINED COASTAL-FRONT
SETUP PRIOR TO STORM PASSAGE.

PRECIPITATION OUTCOMES...

A FRONT-END THUMP IS ANTICIPATED WITH SLANTWISE FORCING PER FRONTO-
GENESIS NW OF H85 LOW EXTENDED E...ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF WEAK
TROWALING TOWARD THE NW-QUADRANT OF THE H85 LOW. BENEATH ENHANCED
ASCENT PER MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL-JET...STRONG
DEEP-LAYER LIFT THROUGH MOIST DENDRITIC ZONES SHOULD YIELD A NW-SE
PRECIPITATION GRADIENT ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP
IMMEDIATELY NW OF THE SURFACE LOW WHICH AGAIN SWEEPS NE AROUND THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK.

COULD BE TALKING STORM-TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND 1.5-2.0
INCHES FOR SE NEW ENGLAND WITH LESSENING AMOUNTS N/W WITH UP TO
AROUND 0.75-INCHES FOR NW MA AND SW NH. SEE DETAILS BELOW IN THE
THERMAL SETUP DISCUSSION THAT BREAKDOWN WHAT THOSE AMOUNTS COULD
EQUATE TO IN TERMS OF SNOW. AGAIN...INITIAL PRECIP WILL LIKELY START
OUT AS RAIN FOR SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW.

F-GEN SW-NE BANDING IS EVIDENT NW OF THE H85 LOW YET WITH MINOR
INDICATIONS OF STATIC/INERTIAL INSTABILITY PER -EPV. CAN NOT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SW-NE BANDS OF HEAVIER RETURNS PER WSR-88D
RADAR DURING THE EVENT THAT WILL YIELD LOCALLY HIGHER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. ITS LIKELY WE WILL HAVE BETTER HANDLE IN
ANALYZING SUCH OUTCOMES WHEN NEAR-TERM HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
BECOMES AVAILABLE.

THERMAL SETUP / SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...

IF A COASTAL FRONT SETUP EMERGES BENEATH NEAR-ISOTHERMAL PROFILES
AROUND -5C UP TO H7 THEN WOULD EXPECT SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS RANGING
FROM 10:1 TO 15:1 AS SREF METEOGRAMS SUGGEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR...
WITH COASTAL RAINS.

QUITE A RANGE THAT HAS SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
CHALLENGES OF SNOWFALL RATES DURING THE TIME OF DAY /LIKELY WILL SEE
DIFFICULTY IN ACCUMULATING SNOWS DURING THE DAY WITH MARGINALLY COLD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES/...ALSO WET-BULBING TO EQUILIBRIUM WITHIN THE
FIRST 1 KFT ABOVE THE SURFACE...AND WHERE WE WILL EFFECTIVELY WET-
BULB AND/OR WHERE AREAS ARE OVERCOME BY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES.

SO IN ADDITION TO THE INITIAL START/CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...SPEED OF
THE SYSTEM AND IMPACTS TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...AND RANGE OF SNOW-
TO-LIQUID RATIOS...IT IS AN INCREDIBLY HUGE CHALLENGE TO NAIL DOWN
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. ONE KEY TO THIS ENTIRE FORECAST IS THE TRACK OF
THE H85 LOW ALONG WITH H925 TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -2C.

THE DIVIDING FREEZING LINE IS VARIED AMONG PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS
BUT NARROWING DOWN IN VICINITY OF THE AREA BETWEEN THE CT I-395 TO
THE I-90/I-290/I-495 MA CORRIDOR TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

SO AFTER PULLING OUT ALL MY HAIR...INTANGIBLES NOTED ABOVE MAKE THE
SNOWFALL FORECAST TEDIOUS. FEEL DURING THE DAY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL OCCUR AT 32-DEGREES OR BELOW WITH SNOW OCCURRING AT 36-DEGREES
OR LOWER. THIS LOWERED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE PRIOR SHIFT. IN
COLLABORATION WITH WPC...BROAD AREA OF 6+ INCHES WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA W OF NW MA TO NW RI ENCOMPASSING ALL OF CT EXCEPT COASTAL
COMMUNITIES. AMOUNTS AROUND 8-10 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

CONTINUED THINKING THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE WIGGLE ROOM OF THE RAIN-
SNOW BAND DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL PROFILES IN THE FORECAST.
EXPECT CHANGES WITHIN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE GRADIENT ADVERTISED
AROUND THE AREA IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

WINDS...

CONSISTENT NE-FLOW OVER E MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BUT DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG THE
STORM ACTUALLY GETS...WHICH AGAIN IS UNCERTAIN. WIND ADVISORY HEAD-
LINES MAY BE NEEDED...BUT IF THEY ARE WOULD EXPECT THAT IT WOULD BE
ON THE LOW-END OF CRITERIA WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH.

COASTAL FLOODING...

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. ANTICIPATING A SHORT-RESIDENCY TIME OF THE STORM...PERHAPS
A MINOR SURGE AND MAYBE SOME SPLASHOVER IF THE NE-WINDS DISCUSSED
ABOVE VERIFY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
WILL ROTATE AROUND BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER EASTERN STATES. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS FROM TIME TO TIME. WE
SHOULD SEE BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES SUN AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
NEXT MON. MAY SEE FEW SHOWERS WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR CIGS. S COAST OF RI/MA...IFR-LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN FOG AND PATCHY -RA. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT
ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY 10Z-11Z.

TODAY...IFR TO LOCALLY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE BY AROUND
15Z ALONG THE S COAST. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CIGS AOA 10KFT. MAY
SEE PATCHY CLOUDS AROUND 5-6KFT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS RI/SE
MA. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT THROUGH MIDDAY ALONG S COAST.

TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION SNOWS OVER INTERIOR
TERMINALS IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. +SN POSSIBLE.
AROUND 40 KT NE-WINDS ACROSS E MA / CAPE COD / ISLANDS...ALONG
WITH +RA. MIX OF IFR-VLIFR CONDITIONS.

FRI...VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...WINDS/SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS MASS/IPSWICH BAYS TO
ALLOW SMALL CRAFT TO EXPIRE AT 09Z. CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS INTO RI/BI SOUNDS THROUGH THE DAY. SEAS
UP TO 11 FT ON THE OPEN WATERS ON SW WINDS GUSTING TO 25
KT...WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH BY EVENING.

TONIGHT...THE LULL BEFORE THE STORM. W WINDS DIMINISH AS THEY VEER
TO NW-N DURING THE NIGHT. SEAS ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS AND
DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS REMAIN AOA 5 FT. HOWEVER...AS
NE WINDS INCREASE DURING WED...GALE AND STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED PASSING NE AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF
NANTUCKET MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. LIKELY NE GALES OVER E MA / CAPE COD /
ISLANDS...AND ALL WATERS. HEAVY RAIN LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST ON OUTER WATERS DUE TO 25KT GUSTS
AND 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR CTZ002.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ003-004.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MAZ002>004-008>011.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MAZ019-022>024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-012>016-026.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NHZ011.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ012-015.
RI...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR RIZ008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR RIZ001-003.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR ANZ231>235-237-254>256.
     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ230-236-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-255-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...EVT/JWD
MARINE...EVT/JWD




000
FXUS61 KBOX 250706
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
206 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A QUIET AND MILD TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTY SW WINDS.
NOR`EASTER FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

245 AM UPDATE...
TEMPS HAVE ACTUALLY SPIKED TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S OVER THE LAST
FEW HOURS ACROSS THE CT VALLEY INTO CENTRAL MA ON STEADY SW WINDS.
ALONG THE S COAST...PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS MOVED ASHORE ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. NOTED A GUST UP TO 30
KT AT 04Z AT KFMH. RATHER SHARP DEWPT DROP BEHIND THE FRONT INTO
CENTRAL NY EVEN WITH WINDS REMAINING FROM THE SW.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED ACROSS THE REGION ON THE SW WIND
FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. QUESTION AT THIS POINT WILL BE WHEN
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION CONSIDERING THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH TO THE W AND PERSISTENT SW FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
DEWPT DROPS MOVING E OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

HAVE UPDATED TEMPS/DEWPTS TO KEEP THEM MILDER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST. REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS OK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE IN ON TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR A QUIET
WEATHER DAY. STILL A DESCENT JET ALOFT SO WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTY
WINDS AROUND 15-25 MPH DURING THE DAY. CAA WILL BEGIN TO POOL IN SO
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S...STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. QUIET OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - NOR`EASTER WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
 - SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WHICH WILL DISRUPT TRAVEL
 - PLOWABLE SNOWS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
 - POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND /CAPE COD - ISLANDS/
 - STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS E MA / CAPE COD / ISLANDS

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

OVERVIEW...

INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NARROWING IN ON A FOCUS OF A STORM TRACK
AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. BUT IT CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO
RESOLVE SPECIFIC DETAILS ACROSS THE REGION. AGAIN...WE REALLY MAY
NOT KNOW THE TRUE OUTCOMES TILL JUST A DAY OR TWO PRIOR.

WEIGHED PREFERENCE UPON THE 24.15Z SREF / 24.12Z GFS ... AND NOW THE
24.12Z ECMWF HAS FINALLY COME ABOARD...HOORAY! NOW WITH A CONSISTENT
STORM-TRACK...IMPACTS BEGIN WEDNESDAY MORNING...INCREASING INTO THE
EVENING WITH THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE STORM
WINDING DOWN THURSDAY MORNING.

SYNOPTICALLY...

BASED ON A PREFERRED MODEL CONSENSUS ABOVE: LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES
FROM THE GULF TUESDAY NE ACROSS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET
AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. ACCOMPANYING H85 LOW PASSES NE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE CAPE COD CANAL TO NW OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK.

DURING WEDNESDAY...BAROCLINIC LEAF / OVER-RUNNING PATTERN OF BROAD-
SCALE ASCENT YIELDS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING DYNAMICALLY COOLING WITH
TIME. WITH SURFACE INTERIOR N-FLOW WITH COASTAL NE-FLOW...AND DRIER
AIR N/W...AM EXPECTING WETBULBING TOWARDS THE DEWPOINT TO AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK THE DIVISION OF WHICH MAY BE ALONG A POSSIBLE COASTAL
FRONT SETUP IMMEDIATELY N/W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. EXPECT INITIAL
RAINS FOR INTERIOR LOCALES CHANGING OVER TO SNOW THROUGH THE DAY...
AS TO THE TIMING OF THAT TRANSITION REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INTENSIFYING LOW SWEEPS NE AROUND THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. WITH A PROGRESSIVE FLOW-PATTERN /+NAO/ AND
ABSENCE OF A CLOSED-LOW ABOVE H85 /MORE EMPHASIS OF AN ANTI-CYCLONIC
BRANCH OF THE WARM CONVEYER BELT/...WITH LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG POLAR-LOW HOLDS ARCTIC AIR
REARWARD ACROSS C-CANADA /+AO/...EXPECTING THERMAL PROFILES AROUND
THE FREEZING MARK OVER INTERIOR S NEW ENGLAND...WHILE MILD OVER THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WITH CONTINUED THINKING OF MAINTAINED COASTAL-FRONT
SETUP PRIOR TO STORM PASSAGE.

PRECIPITATION OUTCOMES...

A FRONT-END THUMP IS ANTICIPATED WITH SLANTWISE FORCING PER FRONTO-
GENESIS NW OF H85 LOW EXTENDED E...ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF WEAK
TROWALING TOWARD THE NW-QUADRANT OF THE H85 LOW. BENEATH ENHANCED
ASCENT PER MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL-JET...STRONG
DEEP-LAYER LIFT THROUGH MOIST DENDRITIC ZONES SHOULD YIELD A NW-SE
PRECIPITATION GRADIENT ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP
IMMEDIATELY NW OF THE SURFACE LOW WHICH AGAIN SWEEPS NE AROUND THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK.

COULD BE TALKING STORM-TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND 1.5-2.0
INCHES FOR SE NEW ENGLAND WITH LESSENING AMOUNTS N/W WITH UP TO
AROUND 0.75-INCHES FOR NW MA AND SW NH. SEE DETAILS BELOW IN THE
THERMAL SETUP DISCUSSION THAT BREAKDOWN WHAT THOSE AMOUNTS COULD
EQUATE TO IN TERMS OF SNOW. AGAIN...INITIAL PRECIP WILL LIKELY START
OUT AS RAIN FOR SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW.

F-GEN SW-NE BANDING IS EVIDENT NW OF THE H85 LOW YET WITH MINOR
INDICATIONS OF STATIC/INERTIAL INSTABILITY PER -EPV. CAN NOT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SW-NE BANDS OF HEAVIER RETURNS PER WSR-88D
RADAR DURING THE EVENT THAT WILL YIELD LOCALLY HIGHER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. ITS LIKELY WE WILL HAVE BETTER HANDLE IN
ANALYZING SUCH OUTCOMES WHEN NEAR-TERM HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
BECOMES AVAILABLE.

THERMAL SETUP / SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...

IF A COASTAL FRONT SETUP EMERGES BENEATH NEAR-ISOTHERMAL PROFILES
AROUND -5C UP TO H7 THEN WOULD EXPECT SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS RANGING
FROM 10:1 TO 15:1 AS SREF METEOGRAMS SUGGEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR...
WITH COASTAL RAINS.

QUITE A RANGE THAT HAS SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
CHALLENGES OF SNOWFALL RATES DURING THE TIME OF DAY /LIKELY WILL SEE
DIFFICULTY IN ACCUMULATING SNOWS DURING THE DAY WITH MARGINALLY COLD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES/...ALSO WET-BULBING TO EQUILIBRIUM WITHIN THE
FIRST 1 KFT ABOVE THE SURFACE...AND WHERE WE WILL EFFECTIVELY WET-
BULB AND/OR WHERE AREAS ARE OVERCOME BY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES.

SO IN ADDITION TO THE INITIAL START/CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...SPEED OF
THE SYSTEM AND IMPACTS TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...AND RANGE OF SNOW-
TO-LIQUID RATIOS...IT IS AN INCREDIBLY HUGE CHALLENGE TO NAIL DOWN
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. ONE KEY TO THIS ENTIRE FORECAST IS THE TRACK OF
THE H85 LOW ALONG WITH H925 TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -2C.

THE DIVIDING FREEZING LINE IS VARIED AMONG PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS
BUT NARROWING DOWN IN VICINITY OF THE AREA BETWEEN THE CT I-395 TO
THE I-90/I-290/I-495 MA CORRIDOR TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

SO AFTER PULLING OUT ALL MY HAIR...INTANGIBLES NOTED ABOVE MAKE THE
SNOWFALL FORECAST TEDIOUS. FEEL DURING THE DAY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL OCCUR AT 32-DEGREES OR BELOW WITH SNOW OCCURRING AT 36-DEGREES
OR LOWER. THIS LOWERED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE PRIOR SHIFT. IN
COLLABORATION WITH WPC...BROAD AREA OF 6+ INCHES WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA W OF NW MA TO NW RI ENCOMPASSING ALL OF CT EXCEPT COASTAL
COMMUNITIES. AMOUNTS AROUND 8-10 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

CONTINUED THINKING THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE WIGGLE ROOM OF THE RAIN-
SNOW BAND DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL PROFILES IN THE FORECAST.
EXPECT CHANGES WITHIN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE GRADIENT ADVERTISED
AROUND THE AREA IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

WINDS...

CONSISTENT NE-FLOW OVER E MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BUT DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG THE
STORM ACTUALLY GETS...WHICH AGAIN IS UNCERTAIN. WIND ADVISORY HEAD-
LINES MAY BE NEEDED...BUT IF THEY ARE WOULD EXPECT THAT IT WOULD BE
ON THE LOW-END OF CRITERIA WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH.

COASTAL FLOODING...

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. ANTICIPATING A SHORT-RESIDENCY TIME OF THE STORM...PERHAPS
A MINOR SURGE AND MAYBE SOME SPLASHOVER IF THE NE-WINDS DISCUSSED
ABOVE VERIFY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
WILL ROTATE AROUND BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER EASTERN STATES. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS FROM TIME TO TIME. WE
SHOULD SEE BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES SUN AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
NEXT MON. MAY SEE FEW SHOWERS WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR CIGS. S COAST OF RI/MA...IFR-LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN FOG AND PATCHY -RA...WHICH MAY MOVE AS FAR N AS
KPVD-KTAN-KPYM FOR A FEW HOURS PRIOR TO SUNRISE. SW WIND GUSTS UP
TO 25-30 KT ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY
10Z.

TODAY...IFR TO LOCALLY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE BY AROUND
15Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CIGS AOA 10KFT. MAY SEE PATCHY CLOUDS
AROUND 5-6KFT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS RI/SE MA. SW WIND GUSTS
UP TO 20-25 KT THROUGH MIDDAY ALONG S COAST.

TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOW PROB OF
MVFR-IFR CIGS AFTER 09Z ALONG S COAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION SNOWS OVER INTERIOR
TERMINALS IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. +SN POSSIBLE.
AROUND 40 KT NE-WINDS ACROSS E MA / CAPE COD / ISLANDS...ALONG
WITH +RA. MIX OF IFR-VLIFR CONDITIONS.

FRI...VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HAVE ENDED THE SMALL CRAFT FOR BOSTON HARBOR/NARRAGANSETT BAY AT
10 PM AS WINDS/SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED. WINDS HAVE ALSO DROPPED BELOW
GALE ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO
GALE FORCE AGAIN WED. HAVE ISSUED GALE WATCH FOR THOSE WATERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30
KTS. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THE WATERS TOWARDS TUESDAY MORNING
SWITCHING THE WINDS TO SW. SEAS REMAINING CHOPPY.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
YET WITH WEAK CAA ALOFT EXPECT GUSTS TO REMAIN UP TO 20-25 KTS.
SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO RESPONSE. SO SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED PASSING NE AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF
NANTUCKET MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. LIKELY NE GALES OVER E MA / CAPE COD /
ISLANDS...AND ALL WATERS. HEAVY RAIN LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST ON OUTER WATERS DUE TO 25KT GUSTS
AND 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ002>006-008>012-026.
NH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR RIZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ232>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-255-256.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/EVT/JWD
MARINE...SIPPRELL/EVT/JWD




000
FXUS61 KBOX 250706
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
206 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A QUIET AND MILD TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTY SW WINDS.
NOR`EASTER FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

245 AM UPDATE...
TEMPS HAVE ACTUALLY SPIKED TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S OVER THE LAST
FEW HOURS ACROSS THE CT VALLEY INTO CENTRAL MA ON STEADY SW WINDS.
ALONG THE S COAST...PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS MOVED ASHORE ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. NOTED A GUST UP TO 30
KT AT 04Z AT KFMH. RATHER SHARP DEWPT DROP BEHIND THE FRONT INTO
CENTRAL NY EVEN WITH WINDS REMAINING FROM THE SW.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED ACROSS THE REGION ON THE SW WIND
FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. QUESTION AT THIS POINT WILL BE WHEN
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION CONSIDERING THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH TO THE W AND PERSISTENT SW FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
DEWPT DROPS MOVING E OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

HAVE UPDATED TEMPS/DEWPTS TO KEEP THEM MILDER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST. REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS OK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE IN ON TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR A QUIET
WEATHER DAY. STILL A DESCENT JET ALOFT SO WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTY
WINDS AROUND 15-25 MPH DURING THE DAY. CAA WILL BEGIN TO POOL IN SO
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S...STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. QUIET OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - NOR`EASTER WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
 - SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WHICH WILL DISRUPT TRAVEL
 - PLOWABLE SNOWS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
 - POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND /CAPE COD - ISLANDS/
 - STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS E MA / CAPE COD / ISLANDS

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

OVERVIEW...

INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NARROWING IN ON A FOCUS OF A STORM TRACK
AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. BUT IT CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO
RESOLVE SPECIFIC DETAILS ACROSS THE REGION. AGAIN...WE REALLY MAY
NOT KNOW THE TRUE OUTCOMES TILL JUST A DAY OR TWO PRIOR.

WEIGHED PREFERENCE UPON THE 24.15Z SREF / 24.12Z GFS ... AND NOW THE
24.12Z ECMWF HAS FINALLY COME ABOARD...HOORAY! NOW WITH A CONSISTENT
STORM-TRACK...IMPACTS BEGIN WEDNESDAY MORNING...INCREASING INTO THE
EVENING WITH THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE STORM
WINDING DOWN THURSDAY MORNING.

SYNOPTICALLY...

BASED ON A PREFERRED MODEL CONSENSUS ABOVE: LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES
FROM THE GULF TUESDAY NE ACROSS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET
AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. ACCOMPANYING H85 LOW PASSES NE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE CAPE COD CANAL TO NW OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK.

DURING WEDNESDAY...BAROCLINIC LEAF / OVER-RUNNING PATTERN OF BROAD-
SCALE ASCENT YIELDS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING DYNAMICALLY COOLING WITH
TIME. WITH SURFACE INTERIOR N-FLOW WITH COASTAL NE-FLOW...AND DRIER
AIR N/W...AM EXPECTING WETBULBING TOWARDS THE DEWPOINT TO AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK THE DIVISION OF WHICH MAY BE ALONG A POSSIBLE COASTAL
FRONT SETUP IMMEDIATELY N/W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. EXPECT INITIAL
RAINS FOR INTERIOR LOCALES CHANGING OVER TO SNOW THROUGH THE DAY...
AS TO THE TIMING OF THAT TRANSITION REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INTENSIFYING LOW SWEEPS NE AROUND THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. WITH A PROGRESSIVE FLOW-PATTERN /+NAO/ AND
ABSENCE OF A CLOSED-LOW ABOVE H85 /MORE EMPHASIS OF AN ANTI-CYCLONIC
BRANCH OF THE WARM CONVEYER BELT/...WITH LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG POLAR-LOW HOLDS ARCTIC AIR
REARWARD ACROSS C-CANADA /+AO/...EXPECTING THERMAL PROFILES AROUND
THE FREEZING MARK OVER INTERIOR S NEW ENGLAND...WHILE MILD OVER THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WITH CONTINUED THINKING OF MAINTAINED COASTAL-FRONT
SETUP PRIOR TO STORM PASSAGE.

PRECIPITATION OUTCOMES...

A FRONT-END THUMP IS ANTICIPATED WITH SLANTWISE FORCING PER FRONTO-
GENESIS NW OF H85 LOW EXTENDED E...ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF WEAK
TROWALING TOWARD THE NW-QUADRANT OF THE H85 LOW. BENEATH ENHANCED
ASCENT PER MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL-JET...STRONG
DEEP-LAYER LIFT THROUGH MOIST DENDRITIC ZONES SHOULD YIELD A NW-SE
PRECIPITATION GRADIENT ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP
IMMEDIATELY NW OF THE SURFACE LOW WHICH AGAIN SWEEPS NE AROUND THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK.

COULD BE TALKING STORM-TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND 1.5-2.0
INCHES FOR SE NEW ENGLAND WITH LESSENING AMOUNTS N/W WITH UP TO
AROUND 0.75-INCHES FOR NW MA AND SW NH. SEE DETAILS BELOW IN THE
THERMAL SETUP DISCUSSION THAT BREAKDOWN WHAT THOSE AMOUNTS COULD
EQUATE TO IN TERMS OF SNOW. AGAIN...INITIAL PRECIP WILL LIKELY START
OUT AS RAIN FOR SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW.

F-GEN SW-NE BANDING IS EVIDENT NW OF THE H85 LOW YET WITH MINOR
INDICATIONS OF STATIC/INERTIAL INSTABILITY PER -EPV. CAN NOT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SW-NE BANDS OF HEAVIER RETURNS PER WSR-88D
RADAR DURING THE EVENT THAT WILL YIELD LOCALLY HIGHER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. ITS LIKELY WE WILL HAVE BETTER HANDLE IN
ANALYZING SUCH OUTCOMES WHEN NEAR-TERM HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
BECOMES AVAILABLE.

THERMAL SETUP / SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...

IF A COASTAL FRONT SETUP EMERGES BENEATH NEAR-ISOTHERMAL PROFILES
AROUND -5C UP TO H7 THEN WOULD EXPECT SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS RANGING
FROM 10:1 TO 15:1 AS SREF METEOGRAMS SUGGEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR...
WITH COASTAL RAINS.

QUITE A RANGE THAT HAS SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
CHALLENGES OF SNOWFALL RATES DURING THE TIME OF DAY /LIKELY WILL SEE
DIFFICULTY IN ACCUMULATING SNOWS DURING THE DAY WITH MARGINALLY COLD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES/...ALSO WET-BULBING TO EQUILIBRIUM WITHIN THE
FIRST 1 KFT ABOVE THE SURFACE...AND WHERE WE WILL EFFECTIVELY WET-
BULB AND/OR WHERE AREAS ARE OVERCOME BY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES.

SO IN ADDITION TO THE INITIAL START/CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...SPEED OF
THE SYSTEM AND IMPACTS TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...AND RANGE OF SNOW-
TO-LIQUID RATIOS...IT IS AN INCREDIBLY HUGE CHALLENGE TO NAIL DOWN
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. ONE KEY TO THIS ENTIRE FORECAST IS THE TRACK OF
THE H85 LOW ALONG WITH H925 TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -2C.

THE DIVIDING FREEZING LINE IS VARIED AMONG PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS
BUT NARROWING DOWN IN VICINITY OF THE AREA BETWEEN THE CT I-395 TO
THE I-90/I-290/I-495 MA CORRIDOR TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

SO AFTER PULLING OUT ALL MY HAIR...INTANGIBLES NOTED ABOVE MAKE THE
SNOWFALL FORECAST TEDIOUS. FEEL DURING THE DAY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL OCCUR AT 32-DEGREES OR BELOW WITH SNOW OCCURRING AT 36-DEGREES
OR LOWER. THIS LOWERED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE PRIOR SHIFT. IN
COLLABORATION WITH WPC...BROAD AREA OF 6+ INCHES WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA W OF NW MA TO NW RI ENCOMPASSING ALL OF CT EXCEPT COASTAL
COMMUNITIES. AMOUNTS AROUND 8-10 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

CONTINUED THINKING THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE WIGGLE ROOM OF THE RAIN-
SNOW BAND DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL PROFILES IN THE FORECAST.
EXPECT CHANGES WITHIN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE GRADIENT ADVERTISED
AROUND THE AREA IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

WINDS...

CONSISTENT NE-FLOW OVER E MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BUT DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG THE
STORM ACTUALLY GETS...WHICH AGAIN IS UNCERTAIN. WIND ADVISORY HEAD-
LINES MAY BE NEEDED...BUT IF THEY ARE WOULD EXPECT THAT IT WOULD BE
ON THE LOW-END OF CRITERIA WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH.

COASTAL FLOODING...

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. ANTICIPATING A SHORT-RESIDENCY TIME OF THE STORM...PERHAPS
A MINOR SURGE AND MAYBE SOME SPLASHOVER IF THE NE-WINDS DISCUSSED
ABOVE VERIFY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
WILL ROTATE AROUND BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER EASTERN STATES. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS FROM TIME TO TIME. WE
SHOULD SEE BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES SUN AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
NEXT MON. MAY SEE FEW SHOWERS WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR CIGS. S COAST OF RI/MA...IFR-LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN FOG AND PATCHY -RA...WHICH MAY MOVE AS FAR N AS
KPVD-KTAN-KPYM FOR A FEW HOURS PRIOR TO SUNRISE. SW WIND GUSTS UP
TO 25-30 KT ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY
10Z.

TODAY...IFR TO LOCALLY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE BY AROUND
15Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CIGS AOA 10KFT. MAY SEE PATCHY CLOUDS
AROUND 5-6KFT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS RI/SE MA. SW WIND GUSTS
UP TO 20-25 KT THROUGH MIDDAY ALONG S COAST.

TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOW PROB OF
MVFR-IFR CIGS AFTER 09Z ALONG S COAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION SNOWS OVER INTERIOR
TERMINALS IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. +SN POSSIBLE.
AROUND 40 KT NE-WINDS ACROSS E MA / CAPE COD / ISLANDS...ALONG
WITH +RA. MIX OF IFR-VLIFR CONDITIONS.

FRI...VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HAVE ENDED THE SMALL CRAFT FOR BOSTON HARBOR/NARRAGANSETT BAY AT
10 PM AS WINDS/SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED. WINDS HAVE ALSO DROPPED BELOW
GALE ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO
GALE FORCE AGAIN WED. HAVE ISSUED GALE WATCH FOR THOSE WATERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30
KTS. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THE WATERS TOWARDS TUESDAY MORNING
SWITCHING THE WINDS TO SW. SEAS REMAINING CHOPPY.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
YET WITH WEAK CAA ALOFT EXPECT GUSTS TO REMAIN UP TO 20-25 KTS.
SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO RESPONSE. SO SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED PASSING NE AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF
NANTUCKET MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. LIKELY NE GALES OVER E MA / CAPE COD /
ISLANDS...AND ALL WATERS. HEAVY RAIN LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST ON OUTER WATERS DUE TO 25KT GUSTS
AND 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ002>006-008>012-026.
NH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR RIZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ232>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-255-256.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/EVT/JWD
MARINE...SIPPRELL/EVT/JWD




000
FXUS61 KBOX 250706
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
206 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A QUIET AND MILD TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTY SW WINDS.
NOR`EASTER FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

245 AM UPDATE...
TEMPS HAVE ACTUALLY SPIKED TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S OVER THE LAST
FEW HOURS ACROSS THE CT VALLEY INTO CENTRAL MA ON STEADY SW WINDS.
ALONG THE S COAST...PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS MOVED ASHORE ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. NOTED A GUST UP TO 30
KT AT 04Z AT KFMH. RATHER SHARP DEWPT DROP BEHIND THE FRONT INTO
CENTRAL NY EVEN WITH WINDS REMAINING FROM THE SW.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED ACROSS THE REGION ON THE SW WIND
FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. QUESTION AT THIS POINT WILL BE WHEN
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION CONSIDERING THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH TO THE W AND PERSISTENT SW FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
DEWPT DROPS MOVING E OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

HAVE UPDATED TEMPS/DEWPTS TO KEEP THEM MILDER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST. REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS OK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE IN ON TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR A QUIET
WEATHER DAY. STILL A DESCENT JET ALOFT SO WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTY
WINDS AROUND 15-25 MPH DURING THE DAY. CAA WILL BEGIN TO POOL IN SO
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S...STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. QUIET OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - NOR`EASTER WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
 - SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WHICH WILL DISRUPT TRAVEL
 - PLOWABLE SNOWS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
 - POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND /CAPE COD - ISLANDS/
 - STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS E MA / CAPE COD / ISLANDS

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

OVERVIEW...

INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NARROWING IN ON A FOCUS OF A STORM TRACK
AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. BUT IT CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO
RESOLVE SPECIFIC DETAILS ACROSS THE REGION. AGAIN...WE REALLY MAY
NOT KNOW THE TRUE OUTCOMES TILL JUST A DAY OR TWO PRIOR.

WEIGHED PREFERENCE UPON THE 24.15Z SREF / 24.12Z GFS ... AND NOW THE
24.12Z ECMWF HAS FINALLY COME ABOARD...HOORAY! NOW WITH A CONSISTENT
STORM-TRACK...IMPACTS BEGIN WEDNESDAY MORNING...INCREASING INTO THE
EVENING WITH THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE STORM
WINDING DOWN THURSDAY MORNING.

SYNOPTICALLY...

BASED ON A PREFERRED MODEL CONSENSUS ABOVE: LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES
FROM THE GULF TUESDAY NE ACROSS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET
AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. ACCOMPANYING H85 LOW PASSES NE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE CAPE COD CANAL TO NW OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK.

DURING WEDNESDAY...BAROCLINIC LEAF / OVER-RUNNING PATTERN OF BROAD-
SCALE ASCENT YIELDS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING DYNAMICALLY COOLING WITH
TIME. WITH SURFACE INTERIOR N-FLOW WITH COASTAL NE-FLOW...AND DRIER
AIR N/W...AM EXPECTING WETBULBING TOWARDS THE DEWPOINT TO AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK THE DIVISION OF WHICH MAY BE ALONG A POSSIBLE COASTAL
FRONT SETUP IMMEDIATELY N/W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. EXPECT INITIAL
RAINS FOR INTERIOR LOCALES CHANGING OVER TO SNOW THROUGH THE DAY...
AS TO THE TIMING OF THAT TRANSITION REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INTENSIFYING LOW SWEEPS NE AROUND THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. WITH A PROGRESSIVE FLOW-PATTERN /+NAO/ AND
ABSENCE OF A CLOSED-LOW ABOVE H85 /MORE EMPHASIS OF AN ANTI-CYCLONIC
BRANCH OF THE WARM CONVEYER BELT/...WITH LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG POLAR-LOW HOLDS ARCTIC AIR
REARWARD ACROSS C-CANADA /+AO/...EXPECTING THERMAL PROFILES AROUND
THE FREEZING MARK OVER INTERIOR S NEW ENGLAND...WHILE MILD OVER THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WITH CONTINUED THINKING OF MAINTAINED COASTAL-FRONT
SETUP PRIOR TO STORM PASSAGE.

PRECIPITATION OUTCOMES...

A FRONT-END THUMP IS ANTICIPATED WITH SLANTWISE FORCING PER FRONTO-
GENESIS NW OF H85 LOW EXTENDED E...ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF WEAK
TROWALING TOWARD THE NW-QUADRANT OF THE H85 LOW. BENEATH ENHANCED
ASCENT PER MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL-JET...STRONG
DEEP-LAYER LIFT THROUGH MOIST DENDRITIC ZONES SHOULD YIELD A NW-SE
PRECIPITATION GRADIENT ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP
IMMEDIATELY NW OF THE SURFACE LOW WHICH AGAIN SWEEPS NE AROUND THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK.

COULD BE TALKING STORM-TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND 1.5-2.0
INCHES FOR SE NEW ENGLAND WITH LESSENING AMOUNTS N/W WITH UP TO
AROUND 0.75-INCHES FOR NW MA AND SW NH. SEE DETAILS BELOW IN THE
THERMAL SETUP DISCUSSION THAT BREAKDOWN WHAT THOSE AMOUNTS COULD
EQUATE TO IN TERMS OF SNOW. AGAIN...INITIAL PRECIP WILL LIKELY START
OUT AS RAIN FOR SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW.

F-GEN SW-NE BANDING IS EVIDENT NW OF THE H85 LOW YET WITH MINOR
INDICATIONS OF STATIC/INERTIAL INSTABILITY PER -EPV. CAN NOT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SW-NE BANDS OF HEAVIER RETURNS PER WSR-88D
RADAR DURING THE EVENT THAT WILL YIELD LOCALLY HIGHER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. ITS LIKELY WE WILL HAVE BETTER HANDLE IN
ANALYZING SUCH OUTCOMES WHEN NEAR-TERM HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
BECOMES AVAILABLE.

THERMAL SETUP / SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...

IF A COASTAL FRONT SETUP EMERGES BENEATH NEAR-ISOTHERMAL PROFILES
AROUND -5C UP TO H7 THEN WOULD EXPECT SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS RANGING
FROM 10:1 TO 15:1 AS SREF METEOGRAMS SUGGEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR...
WITH COASTAL RAINS.

QUITE A RANGE THAT HAS SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
CHALLENGES OF SNOWFALL RATES DURING THE TIME OF DAY /LIKELY WILL SEE
DIFFICULTY IN ACCUMULATING SNOWS DURING THE DAY WITH MARGINALLY COLD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES/...ALSO WET-BULBING TO EQUILIBRIUM WITHIN THE
FIRST 1 KFT ABOVE THE SURFACE...AND WHERE WE WILL EFFECTIVELY WET-
BULB AND/OR WHERE AREAS ARE OVERCOME BY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES.

SO IN ADDITION TO THE INITIAL START/CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...SPEED OF
THE SYSTEM AND IMPACTS TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...AND RANGE OF SNOW-
TO-LIQUID RATIOS...IT IS AN INCREDIBLY HUGE CHALLENGE TO NAIL DOWN
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. ONE KEY TO THIS ENTIRE FORECAST IS THE TRACK OF
THE H85 LOW ALONG WITH H925 TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -2C.

THE DIVIDING FREEZING LINE IS VARIED AMONG PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS
BUT NARROWING DOWN IN VICINITY OF THE AREA BETWEEN THE CT I-395 TO
THE I-90/I-290/I-495 MA CORRIDOR TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

SO AFTER PULLING OUT ALL MY HAIR...INTANGIBLES NOTED ABOVE MAKE THE
SNOWFALL FORECAST TEDIOUS. FEEL DURING THE DAY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL OCCUR AT 32-DEGREES OR BELOW WITH SNOW OCCURRING AT 36-DEGREES
OR LOWER. THIS LOWERED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE PRIOR SHIFT. IN
COLLABORATION WITH WPC...BROAD AREA OF 6+ INCHES WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA W OF NW MA TO NW RI ENCOMPASSING ALL OF CT EXCEPT COASTAL
COMMUNITIES. AMOUNTS AROUND 8-10 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

CONTINUED THINKING THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE WIGGLE ROOM OF THE RAIN-
SNOW BAND DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL PROFILES IN THE FORECAST.
EXPECT CHANGES WITHIN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE GRADIENT ADVERTISED
AROUND THE AREA IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

WINDS...

CONSISTENT NE-FLOW OVER E MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BUT DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG THE
STORM ACTUALLY GETS...WHICH AGAIN IS UNCERTAIN. WIND ADVISORY HEAD-
LINES MAY BE NEEDED...BUT IF THEY ARE WOULD EXPECT THAT IT WOULD BE
ON THE LOW-END OF CRITERIA WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH.

COASTAL FLOODING...

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. ANTICIPATING A SHORT-RESIDENCY TIME OF THE STORM...PERHAPS
A MINOR SURGE AND MAYBE SOME SPLASHOVER IF THE NE-WINDS DISCUSSED
ABOVE VERIFY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
WILL ROTATE AROUND BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER EASTERN STATES. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS FROM TIME TO TIME. WE
SHOULD SEE BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES SUN AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
NEXT MON. MAY SEE FEW SHOWERS WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR CIGS. S COAST OF RI/MA...IFR-LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN FOG AND PATCHY -RA...WHICH MAY MOVE AS FAR N AS
KPVD-KTAN-KPYM FOR A FEW HOURS PRIOR TO SUNRISE. SW WIND GUSTS UP
TO 25-30 KT ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY
10Z.

TODAY...IFR TO LOCALLY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE BY AROUND
15Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CIGS AOA 10KFT. MAY SEE PATCHY CLOUDS
AROUND 5-6KFT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS RI/SE MA. SW WIND GUSTS
UP TO 20-25 KT THROUGH MIDDAY ALONG S COAST.

TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOW PROB OF
MVFR-IFR CIGS AFTER 09Z ALONG S COAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION SNOWS OVER INTERIOR
TERMINALS IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. +SN POSSIBLE.
AROUND 40 KT NE-WINDS ACROSS E MA / CAPE COD / ISLANDS...ALONG
WITH +RA. MIX OF IFR-VLIFR CONDITIONS.

FRI...VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HAVE ENDED THE SMALL CRAFT FOR BOSTON HARBOR/NARRAGANSETT BAY AT
10 PM AS WINDS/SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED. WINDS HAVE ALSO DROPPED BELOW
GALE ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO
GALE FORCE AGAIN WED. HAVE ISSUED GALE WATCH FOR THOSE WATERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30
KTS. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THE WATERS TOWARDS TUESDAY MORNING
SWITCHING THE WINDS TO SW. SEAS REMAINING CHOPPY.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
YET WITH WEAK CAA ALOFT EXPECT GUSTS TO REMAIN UP TO 20-25 KTS.
SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO RESPONSE. SO SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED PASSING NE AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF
NANTUCKET MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. LIKELY NE GALES OVER E MA / CAPE COD /
ISLANDS...AND ALL WATERS. HEAVY RAIN LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST ON OUTER WATERS DUE TO 25KT GUSTS
AND 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ002>006-008>012-026.
NH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR RIZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ232>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-255-256.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/EVT/JWD
MARINE...SIPPRELL/EVT/JWD




000
FXUS61 KBOX 250706
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
206 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A QUIET AND MILD TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTY SW WINDS.
NOR`EASTER FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

245 AM UPDATE...
TEMPS HAVE ACTUALLY SPIKED TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S OVER THE LAST
FEW HOURS ACROSS THE CT VALLEY INTO CENTRAL MA ON STEADY SW WINDS.
ALONG THE S COAST...PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS MOVED ASHORE ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. NOTED A GUST UP TO 30
KT AT 04Z AT KFMH. RATHER SHARP DEWPT DROP BEHIND THE FRONT INTO
CENTRAL NY EVEN WITH WINDS REMAINING FROM THE SW.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED ACROSS THE REGION ON THE SW WIND
FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. QUESTION AT THIS POINT WILL BE WHEN
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION CONSIDERING THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH TO THE W AND PERSISTENT SW FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
DEWPT DROPS MOVING E OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

HAVE UPDATED TEMPS/DEWPTS TO KEEP THEM MILDER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST. REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS OK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE IN ON TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR A QUIET
WEATHER DAY. STILL A DESCENT JET ALOFT SO WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTY
WINDS AROUND 15-25 MPH DURING THE DAY. CAA WILL BEGIN TO POOL IN SO
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S...STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. QUIET OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - NOR`EASTER WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
 - SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WHICH WILL DISRUPT TRAVEL
 - PLOWABLE SNOWS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
 - POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND /CAPE COD - ISLANDS/
 - STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS E MA / CAPE COD / ISLANDS

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

OVERVIEW...

INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NARROWING IN ON A FOCUS OF A STORM TRACK
AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. BUT IT CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO
RESOLVE SPECIFIC DETAILS ACROSS THE REGION. AGAIN...WE REALLY MAY
NOT KNOW THE TRUE OUTCOMES TILL JUST A DAY OR TWO PRIOR.

WEIGHED PREFERENCE UPON THE 24.15Z SREF / 24.12Z GFS ... AND NOW THE
24.12Z ECMWF HAS FINALLY COME ABOARD...HOORAY! NOW WITH A CONSISTENT
STORM-TRACK...IMPACTS BEGIN WEDNESDAY MORNING...INCREASING INTO THE
EVENING WITH THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE STORM
WINDING DOWN THURSDAY MORNING.

SYNOPTICALLY...

BASED ON A PREFERRED MODEL CONSENSUS ABOVE: LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES
FROM THE GULF TUESDAY NE ACROSS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET
AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. ACCOMPANYING H85 LOW PASSES NE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE CAPE COD CANAL TO NW OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK.

DURING WEDNESDAY...BAROCLINIC LEAF / OVER-RUNNING PATTERN OF BROAD-
SCALE ASCENT YIELDS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING DYNAMICALLY COOLING WITH
TIME. WITH SURFACE INTERIOR N-FLOW WITH COASTAL NE-FLOW...AND DRIER
AIR N/W...AM EXPECTING WETBULBING TOWARDS THE DEWPOINT TO AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK THE DIVISION OF WHICH MAY BE ALONG A POSSIBLE COASTAL
FRONT SETUP IMMEDIATELY N/W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. EXPECT INITIAL
RAINS FOR INTERIOR LOCALES CHANGING OVER TO SNOW THROUGH THE DAY...
AS TO THE TIMING OF THAT TRANSITION REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INTENSIFYING LOW SWEEPS NE AROUND THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. WITH A PROGRESSIVE FLOW-PATTERN /+NAO/ AND
ABSENCE OF A CLOSED-LOW ABOVE H85 /MORE EMPHASIS OF AN ANTI-CYCLONIC
BRANCH OF THE WARM CONVEYER BELT/...WITH LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG POLAR-LOW HOLDS ARCTIC AIR
REARWARD ACROSS C-CANADA /+AO/...EXPECTING THERMAL PROFILES AROUND
THE FREEZING MARK OVER INTERIOR S NEW ENGLAND...WHILE MILD OVER THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WITH CONTINUED THINKING OF MAINTAINED COASTAL-FRONT
SETUP PRIOR TO STORM PASSAGE.

PRECIPITATION OUTCOMES...

A FRONT-END THUMP IS ANTICIPATED WITH SLANTWISE FORCING PER FRONTO-
GENESIS NW OF H85 LOW EXTENDED E...ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF WEAK
TROWALING TOWARD THE NW-QUADRANT OF THE H85 LOW. BENEATH ENHANCED
ASCENT PER MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL-JET...STRONG
DEEP-LAYER LIFT THROUGH MOIST DENDRITIC ZONES SHOULD YIELD A NW-SE
PRECIPITATION GRADIENT ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP
IMMEDIATELY NW OF THE SURFACE LOW WHICH AGAIN SWEEPS NE AROUND THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK.

COULD BE TALKING STORM-TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND 1.5-2.0
INCHES FOR SE NEW ENGLAND WITH LESSENING AMOUNTS N/W WITH UP TO
AROUND 0.75-INCHES FOR NW MA AND SW NH. SEE DETAILS BELOW IN THE
THERMAL SETUP DISCUSSION THAT BREAKDOWN WHAT THOSE AMOUNTS COULD
EQUATE TO IN TERMS OF SNOW. AGAIN...INITIAL PRECIP WILL LIKELY START
OUT AS RAIN FOR SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW.

F-GEN SW-NE BANDING IS EVIDENT NW OF THE H85 LOW YET WITH MINOR
INDICATIONS OF STATIC/INERTIAL INSTABILITY PER -EPV. CAN NOT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SW-NE BANDS OF HEAVIER RETURNS PER WSR-88D
RADAR DURING THE EVENT THAT WILL YIELD LOCALLY HIGHER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. ITS LIKELY WE WILL HAVE BETTER HANDLE IN
ANALYZING SUCH OUTCOMES WHEN NEAR-TERM HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
BECOMES AVAILABLE.

THERMAL SETUP / SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...

IF A COASTAL FRONT SETUP EMERGES BENEATH NEAR-ISOTHERMAL PROFILES
AROUND -5C UP TO H7 THEN WOULD EXPECT SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS RANGING
FROM 10:1 TO 15:1 AS SREF METEOGRAMS SUGGEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR...
WITH COASTAL RAINS.

QUITE A RANGE THAT HAS SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
CHALLENGES OF SNOWFALL RATES DURING THE TIME OF DAY /LIKELY WILL SEE
DIFFICULTY IN ACCUMULATING SNOWS DURING THE DAY WITH MARGINALLY COLD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES/...ALSO WET-BULBING TO EQUILIBRIUM WITHIN THE
FIRST 1 KFT ABOVE THE SURFACE...AND WHERE WE WILL EFFECTIVELY WET-
BULB AND/OR WHERE AREAS ARE OVERCOME BY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES.

SO IN ADDITION TO THE INITIAL START/CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...SPEED OF
THE SYSTEM AND IMPACTS TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...AND RANGE OF SNOW-
TO-LIQUID RATIOS...IT IS AN INCREDIBLY HUGE CHALLENGE TO NAIL DOWN
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. ONE KEY TO THIS ENTIRE FORECAST IS THE TRACK OF
THE H85 LOW ALONG WITH H925 TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -2C.

THE DIVIDING FREEZING LINE IS VARIED AMONG PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS
BUT NARROWING DOWN IN VICINITY OF THE AREA BETWEEN THE CT I-395 TO
THE I-90/I-290/I-495 MA CORRIDOR TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

SO AFTER PULLING OUT ALL MY HAIR...INTANGIBLES NOTED ABOVE MAKE THE
SNOWFALL FORECAST TEDIOUS. FEEL DURING THE DAY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL OCCUR AT 32-DEGREES OR BELOW WITH SNOW OCCURRING AT 36-DEGREES
OR LOWER. THIS LOWERED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE PRIOR SHIFT. IN
COLLABORATION WITH WPC...BROAD AREA OF 6+ INCHES WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA W OF NW MA TO NW RI ENCOMPASSING ALL OF CT EXCEPT COASTAL
COMMUNITIES. AMOUNTS AROUND 8-10 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

CONTINUED THINKING THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE WIGGLE ROOM OF THE RAIN-
SNOW BAND DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL PROFILES IN THE FORECAST.
EXPECT CHANGES WITHIN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE GRADIENT ADVERTISED
AROUND THE AREA IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

WINDS...

CONSISTENT NE-FLOW OVER E MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BUT DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG THE
STORM ACTUALLY GETS...WHICH AGAIN IS UNCERTAIN. WIND ADVISORY HEAD-
LINES MAY BE NEEDED...BUT IF THEY ARE WOULD EXPECT THAT IT WOULD BE
ON THE LOW-END OF CRITERIA WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH.

COASTAL FLOODING...

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. ANTICIPATING A SHORT-RESIDENCY TIME OF THE STORM...PERHAPS
A MINOR SURGE AND MAYBE SOME SPLASHOVER IF THE NE-WINDS DISCUSSED
ABOVE VERIFY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
WILL ROTATE AROUND BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER EASTERN STATES. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS FROM TIME TO TIME. WE
SHOULD SEE BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES SUN AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
NEXT MON. MAY SEE FEW SHOWERS WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR CIGS. S COAST OF RI/MA...IFR-LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN FOG AND PATCHY -RA...WHICH MAY MOVE AS FAR N AS
KPVD-KTAN-KPYM FOR A FEW HOURS PRIOR TO SUNRISE. SW WIND GUSTS UP
TO 25-30 KT ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY
10Z.

TODAY...IFR TO LOCALLY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE BY AROUND
15Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CIGS AOA 10KFT. MAY SEE PATCHY CLOUDS
AROUND 5-6KFT DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS RI/SE MA. SW WIND GUSTS
UP TO 20-25 KT THROUGH MIDDAY ALONG S COAST.

TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOW PROB OF
MVFR-IFR CIGS AFTER 09Z ALONG S COAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION SNOWS OVER INTERIOR
TERMINALS IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. +SN POSSIBLE.
AROUND 40 KT NE-WINDS ACROSS E MA / CAPE COD / ISLANDS...ALONG
WITH +RA. MIX OF IFR-VLIFR CONDITIONS.

FRI...VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

HAVE ENDED THE SMALL CRAFT FOR BOSTON HARBOR/NARRAGANSETT BAY AT
10 PM AS WINDS/SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED. WINDS HAVE ALSO DROPPED BELOW
GALE ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO
GALE FORCE AGAIN WED. HAVE ISSUED GALE WATCH FOR THOSE WATERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30
KTS. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THE WATERS TOWARDS TUESDAY MORNING
SWITCHING THE WINDS TO SW. SEAS REMAINING CHOPPY.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
YET WITH WEAK CAA ALOFT EXPECT GUSTS TO REMAIN UP TO 20-25 KTS.
SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO RESPONSE. SO SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED PASSING NE AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF
NANTUCKET MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. LIKELY NE GALES OVER E MA / CAPE COD /
ISLANDS...AND ALL WATERS. HEAVY RAIN LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST ON OUTER WATERS DUE TO 25KT GUSTS
AND 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ002>006-008>012-026.
NH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR RIZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ232>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237-255-256.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/EVT/JWD
MARINE...SIPPRELL/EVT/JWD




000
FXUS61 KBOX 250449
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1149 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A QUIET AND MILD TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTY SW WINDS.
NOR`EASTER FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
1130 PM UPDATE...
AREA OF CLOUDS HAS MOVED NE OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH 03Z...THEN
ANOTHER AREA OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IS PUSHING INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN AREAS ON SW WINDS AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THE REGION.

DEWPTS STARTING TO FALL ACROSS CENTRAL VT /FROM KLEB TO KRUT AT
04Z/...BUT NO TRUE WIND SHIFT NOTED. BAND OF SHOWERS DELINEATING
THE FRONT CUTTING ACROSS EXTREME N NH...N CENTRAL VT INTO UPSTATE
NY. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE WITH RATHER WIDE TEMP/DEWPT
SPREADS CAUSING PRECIP TO EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND.
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS SEEN S OF NEW ENGLAND ON NE REGIONAL 88D
RADAR ALSO MOVING NE...WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLY CLIPPING THE
OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET OVERNIGHT. ALSO NOTING FOG DEVELOPING
ALONG THE S COAST WHICH SHOULD LINGER THROUGH MOST OF IF NOT THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW.

HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
INCREASING TEMPS A BIT OVERNIGHT. UNCERTAIN ON TIMING OF COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SW INTO TUE MORNING.
ALSO EXTENDED FOG COVERAGE ALONG S COAST THROUGH 08Z-10Z THEN
START TO INCREASE VSBYS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STILL A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION MAINTAINED BY
CONTINUED BLUSTERY FLOW. QUITE IMPRESSIVE WARMTH CONTINUES AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT A MIX OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...THE WORST
OF WHICH WILL BE ACROSS THE S COASTLINE INCLUDING CAPE COD /
ISLANDS. AS THE FRONT SWEEPS THE REGION...AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION BUT MAINLY A DRY PUSH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE IN ON TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR A QUIET
WEATHER DAY. STILL A DESCENT JET ALOFT SO WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTY
WINDS AROUND 15-25 MPH DURING THE DAY. CAA WILL BEGIN TO POOL IN SO
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S...STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. QUIET OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - NOR`EASTER WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
 - SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WHICH WILL DISRUPT TRAVEL
 - PLOWABLE SNOWS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
 - POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND /CAPE COD - ISLANDS/
 - STRONG NE-WINDS ACROSS E MA / CAPE COD / ISLANDS

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

OVERVIEW...

INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NARROWING IN ON A FOCUS OF A STORM TRACK
AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. BUT IT CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO
RESOLVE SPECIFIC DETAILS ACROSS THE REGION. AGAIN...WE REALLY MAY
NOT KNOW THE TRUE OUTCOMES TILL JUST A DAY OR TWO PRIOR.

WEIGHED PREFERENCE UPON THE 24.15Z SREF / 24.12Z GFS ... AND NOW THE
24.12Z ECMWF HAS FINALLY COME ABOARD...HOORAY! NOW WITH A CONSISTENT
STORM-TRACK...IMPACTS BEGIN WEDNESDAY MORNING...INCREASING INTO THE
EVENING WITH THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE STORM
WINDING DOWN THURSDAY MORNING.

SYNOPTICALLY...

BASED ON A PREFERRED MODEL CONSENSUS ABOVE: LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES
FROM THE GULF TUESDAY NE ACROSS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET
AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. ACCOMPANYING H85 LOW PASSES NE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE CAPE COD CANAL TO NW OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK.

DURING WEDNESDAY...BAROCLINIC LEAF / OVER-RUNNING PATTERN OF BROAD-
SCALE ASCENT YIELDS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING DYNAMICALLY COOLING WITH
TIME. WITH SURFACE INTERIOR N-FLOW WITH COASTAL NE-FLOW...AND DRIER
AIR N/W...AM EXPECTING WETBULBING TOWARDS THE DEWPOINT TO AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK THE DIVISION OF WHICH MAY BE ALONG A POSSIBLE COASTAL
FRONT SETUP IMMEDIATELY N/W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. EXPECT INITIAL
RAINS FOR INTERIOR LOCALES CHANGING OVER TO SNOW THROUGH THE DAY...
AS TO THE TIMING OF THAT TRANSITION REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INTENSIFYING LOW SWEEPS NE AROUND THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. WITH A PROGRESSIVE FLOW-PATTERN /+NAO/ AND
ABSENCE OF A CLOSED-LOW ABOVE H85 /MORE EMPHASIS OF AN ANTI-CYCLONIC
BRANCH OF THE WARM CONVEYER BELT/...WITH LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG POLAR-LOW HOLDS ARCTIC AIR
REARWARD ACROSS C-CANADA /+AO/...EXPECTING THERMAL PROFILES AROUND
THE FREEZING MARK OVER INTERIOR S NEW ENGLAND...WHILE MILD OVER THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WITH CONTINUED THINKING OF MAINTAINED COASTAL-FRONT
SETUP PRIOR TO STORM PASSAGE.

PRECIPITATION OUTCOMES...

A FRONT-END THUMP IS ANTICIPATED WITH SLANTWISE FORCING PER FRONTO-
GENESIS NW OF H85 LOW EXTENDED E...ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF WEAK
TROWALING TOWARD THE NW-QUADRANT OF THE H85 LOW. BENEATH ENHANCED
ASCENT PER MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL-JET...STRONG
DEEP-LAYER LIFT THROUGH MOIST DENDRITIC ZONES SHOULD YIELD A NW-SE
PRECIPITATION GRADIENT ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP
IMMEDIATELY NW OF THE SURFACE LOW WHICH AGAIN SWEEPS NE AROUND THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK.

COULD BE TALKING STORM-TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND 1.5-2.0
INCHES FOR SE NEW ENGLAND WITH LESSENING AMOUNTS N/W WITH UP TO
AROUND 0.75-INCHES FOR NW MA AND SW NH. SEE DETAILS BELOW IN THE
THERMAL SETUP DISCUSSION THAT BREAKDOWN WHAT THOSE AMOUNTS COULD
EQUATE TO IN TERMS OF SNOW. AGAIN...INITIAL PRECIP WILL LIKELY START
OUT AS RAIN FOR SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW.

F-GEN SW-NE BANDING IS EVIDENT NW OF THE H85 LOW YET WITH MINOR
INDICATIONS OF STATIC/INERTIAL INSTABILITY PER -EPV. CAN NOT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SW-NE BANDS OF HEAVIER RETURNS PER WSR-88D
RADAR DURING THE EVENT THAT WILL YIELD LOCALLY HIGHER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. ITS LIKELY WE WILL HAVE BETTER HANDLE IN
ANALYZING SUCH OUTCOMES WHEN NEAR-TERM HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
BECOMES AVAILABLE.

THERMAL SETUP / SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...

IF A COASTAL FRONT SETUP EMERGES BENEATH NEAR-ISOTHERMAL PROFILES
AROUND -5C UP TO H7 THEN WOULD EXPECT SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS RANGING
FROM 10:1 TO 15:1 AS SREF METEOGRAMS SUGGEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR...
WITH COASTAL RAINS.

QUITE A RANGE THAT HAS SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
CHALLENGES OF SNOWFALL RATES DURING THE TIME OF DAY /LIKELY WILL SEE
DIFFICULTY IN ACCUMULATING SNOWS DURING THE DAY WITH MARGINALLY COLD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES/...ALSO WET-BULBING TO EQUILIBRIUM WITHIN THE
FIRST 1 KFT ABOVE THE SURFACE...AND WHERE WE WILL EFFECTIVELY WET-
BULB AND/OR WHERE AREAS ARE OVERCOME BY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES.

SO IN ADDITION TO THE INITIAL START/CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...SPEED OF
THE SYSTEM AND IMPACTS TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...AND RANGE OF SNOW-
TO-LIQUID RATIOS...IT IS AN INCREDIBLY HUGE CHALLENGE TO NAIL DOWN
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. ONE KEY TO THIS ENTIRE FORECAST IS THE TRACK OF
THE H85 LOW ALONG WITH H925 TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -2C.

THE DIVIDING FREEZING LINE IS VARIED AMONG PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS
BUT NARROWING DOWN IN VICINITY OF THE AREA BETWEEN THE CT I-395 TO
THE I-90/I-290/I-495 MA CORRIDOR TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

SO AFTER PULLING OUT ALL MY HAIR...INTANGIBLES NOTED ABOVE MAKE THE
SNOWFALL FORECAST TEDIOUS. FEEL DURING THE DAY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL OCCUR AT 32-DEGREES OR BELOW WITH SNOW OCCURRING AT 36-DEGREES
OR LOWER. THIS LOWERED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE PRIOR SHIFT. IN
COLLABORATION WITH WPC...BROAD AREA OF 6+ INCHES WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA W OF NW MA TO NW RI ENCOMPASSING ALL OF CT EXCEPT COASTAL
COMMUNITIES. AMOUNTS AROUND 8-10 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

CONTINUED THINKING THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE WIGGLE ROOM OF THE RAIN-
SNOW BAND DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL PROFILES IN THE FORECAST.
EXPECT CHANGES WITHIN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE GRADIENT ADVERTISED
AROUND THE AREA IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

WINDS...

CONSISTENT NE-FLOW OVER E MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BUT DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG THE
STORM ACTUALLY GETS...WHICH AGAIN IS UNCERTAIN. WIND ADVISORY HEAD-
LINES MAY BE NEEDED...BUT IF THEY ARE WOULD EXPECT THAT IT WOULD BE
ON THE LOW-END OF CRITERIA WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH.

COASTAL FLOODING...

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. ANTICIPATING A SHORT-RESIDENCY TIME OF THE STORM...PERHAPS
A MINOR SURGE AND MAYBE SOME SPLASHOVER IF THE NE-WINDS DISCUSSED
ABOVE VERIFY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
WILL ROTATE AROUND BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER EASTERN STATES. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS FROM TIME TO TIME. WE
SHOULD SEE BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES SUN AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
NEXT MON. MAY SEE FEW SHOWERS WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

0Z UPDATE...

COLD FRONT /UNV-SYR-MSS/ SWEEPS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AROUND 9Z.
EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS LOWEST ALONG THE S-SHORELINE
WITH IFR-VLIFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG WITH GUSTY SW-WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AROUND 25-30 KTS INITIALLY GRADUALLY RELAXING. THE BREEZY
FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE MAJORITY OF FOG AWAY.

IMPROVING VFR THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND INTO THE DAY WITH
CONTINUED W/SW WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SPECIFIC TIMING AS TO
IMPROVEMENT OVER THE TERMINAL IS NOT ENTIRELY CERTAIN.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
WITH CIGS LIFTING TOWARDS 8Z. MAY LIFT FASTER THAN FORECAST.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION SNOWS OVER INTERIOR
TERMINALS IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. +SN POSSIBLE.
AROUND 40 KT NE-WINDS ACROSS E MA / CAPE COD / ISLANDS...ALONG
WITH +RA. MIX OF IFR-VLIFR CONDITIONS.

FRI...VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

1130 PM UPDATE...

HAVE ENDED THE SMALL CRAFT FOR BOSTON HARBOR/NARRAGANSETT BAY AT
10 PM AS WINDS/SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED. WINDS HAVE ALSO DROPPED BELOW
GALE ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE
TO GALE FORCE AGAIN WED. HAVE ISSUED GALE WATCH FOR THOSE WATERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30
KTS. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THE WATERS TOWARDS TUESDAY MORNING
SWITCHING THE WINDS TO SW. SEAS REMAINING CHOPPY.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
YET WITH WEAK CAA ALOFT EXPECT GUSTS TO REMAIN UP TO 20-25 KTS.
SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO RESPONSE. SO SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED PASSING NE AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF
NANTUCKET MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. LIKELY NE GALES OVER E MA / CAPE COD /
ISLANDS...AND ALL WATERS. HEAVY RAIN LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST ON OUTER WATERS DUE TO 25KT GUSTS
AND 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ002>006-008>012-026.
NH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR RIZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ232>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-255-
     256.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL/EVT
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL/JWD
MARINE...EVT/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 250449
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1149 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A QUIET AND MILD TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTY SW WINDS.
NOR`EASTER FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
1130 PM UPDATE...
AREA OF CLOUDS HAS MOVED NE OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH 03Z...THEN
ANOTHER AREA OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IS PUSHING INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN AREAS ON SW WINDS AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THE REGION.

DEWPTS STARTING TO FALL ACROSS CENTRAL VT /FROM KLEB TO KRUT AT
04Z/...BUT NO TRUE WIND SHIFT NOTED. BAND OF SHOWERS DELINEATING
THE FRONT CUTTING ACROSS EXTREME N NH...N CENTRAL VT INTO UPSTATE
NY. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE WITH RATHER WIDE TEMP/DEWPT
SPREADS CAUSING PRECIP TO EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND.
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS SEEN S OF NEW ENGLAND ON NE REGIONAL 88D
RADAR ALSO MOVING NE...WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLY CLIPPING THE
OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET OVERNIGHT. ALSO NOTING FOG DEVELOPING
ALONG THE S COAST WHICH SHOULD LINGER THROUGH MOST OF IF NOT THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW.

HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
INCREASING TEMPS A BIT OVERNIGHT. UNCERTAIN ON TIMING OF COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SW INTO TUE MORNING.
ALSO EXTENDED FOG COVERAGE ALONG S COAST THROUGH 08Z-10Z THEN
START TO INCREASE VSBYS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STILL A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION MAINTAINED BY
CONTINUED BLUSTERY FLOW. QUITE IMPRESSIVE WARMTH CONTINUES AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT A MIX OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...THE WORST
OF WHICH WILL BE ACROSS THE S COASTLINE INCLUDING CAPE COD /
ISLANDS. AS THE FRONT SWEEPS THE REGION...AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION BUT MAINLY A DRY PUSH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE IN ON TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR A QUIET
WEATHER DAY. STILL A DESCENT JET ALOFT SO WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTY
WINDS AROUND 15-25 MPH DURING THE DAY. CAA WILL BEGIN TO POOL IN SO
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S...STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. QUIET OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - NOR`EASTER WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
 - SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WHICH WILL DISRUPT TRAVEL
 - PLOWABLE SNOWS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
 - POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND /CAPE COD - ISLANDS/
 - STRONG NE-WINDS ACROSS E MA / CAPE COD / ISLANDS

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

OVERVIEW...

INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NARROWING IN ON A FOCUS OF A STORM TRACK
AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. BUT IT CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO
RESOLVE SPECIFIC DETAILS ACROSS THE REGION. AGAIN...WE REALLY MAY
NOT KNOW THE TRUE OUTCOMES TILL JUST A DAY OR TWO PRIOR.

WEIGHED PREFERENCE UPON THE 24.15Z SREF / 24.12Z GFS ... AND NOW THE
24.12Z ECMWF HAS FINALLY COME ABOARD...HOORAY! NOW WITH A CONSISTENT
STORM-TRACK...IMPACTS BEGIN WEDNESDAY MORNING...INCREASING INTO THE
EVENING WITH THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE STORM
WINDING DOWN THURSDAY MORNING.

SYNOPTICALLY...

BASED ON A PREFERRED MODEL CONSENSUS ABOVE: LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES
FROM THE GULF TUESDAY NE ACROSS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET
AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. ACCOMPANYING H85 LOW PASSES NE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE CAPE COD CANAL TO NW OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK.

DURING WEDNESDAY...BAROCLINIC LEAF / OVER-RUNNING PATTERN OF BROAD-
SCALE ASCENT YIELDS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING DYNAMICALLY COOLING WITH
TIME. WITH SURFACE INTERIOR N-FLOW WITH COASTAL NE-FLOW...AND DRIER
AIR N/W...AM EXPECTING WETBULBING TOWARDS THE DEWPOINT TO AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK THE DIVISION OF WHICH MAY BE ALONG A POSSIBLE COASTAL
FRONT SETUP IMMEDIATELY N/W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. EXPECT INITIAL
RAINS FOR INTERIOR LOCALES CHANGING OVER TO SNOW THROUGH THE DAY...
AS TO THE TIMING OF THAT TRANSITION REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INTENSIFYING LOW SWEEPS NE AROUND THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. WITH A PROGRESSIVE FLOW-PATTERN /+NAO/ AND
ABSENCE OF A CLOSED-LOW ABOVE H85 /MORE EMPHASIS OF AN ANTI-CYCLONIC
BRANCH OF THE WARM CONVEYER BELT/...WITH LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG POLAR-LOW HOLDS ARCTIC AIR
REARWARD ACROSS C-CANADA /+AO/...EXPECTING THERMAL PROFILES AROUND
THE FREEZING MARK OVER INTERIOR S NEW ENGLAND...WHILE MILD OVER THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WITH CONTINUED THINKING OF MAINTAINED COASTAL-FRONT
SETUP PRIOR TO STORM PASSAGE.

PRECIPITATION OUTCOMES...

A FRONT-END THUMP IS ANTICIPATED WITH SLANTWISE FORCING PER FRONTO-
GENESIS NW OF H85 LOW EXTENDED E...ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF WEAK
TROWALING TOWARD THE NW-QUADRANT OF THE H85 LOW. BENEATH ENHANCED
ASCENT PER MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL-JET...STRONG
DEEP-LAYER LIFT THROUGH MOIST DENDRITIC ZONES SHOULD YIELD A NW-SE
PRECIPITATION GRADIENT ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP
IMMEDIATELY NW OF THE SURFACE LOW WHICH AGAIN SWEEPS NE AROUND THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK.

COULD BE TALKING STORM-TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND 1.5-2.0
INCHES FOR SE NEW ENGLAND WITH LESSENING AMOUNTS N/W WITH UP TO
AROUND 0.75-INCHES FOR NW MA AND SW NH. SEE DETAILS BELOW IN THE
THERMAL SETUP DISCUSSION THAT BREAKDOWN WHAT THOSE AMOUNTS COULD
EQUATE TO IN TERMS OF SNOW. AGAIN...INITIAL PRECIP WILL LIKELY START
OUT AS RAIN FOR SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW.

F-GEN SW-NE BANDING IS EVIDENT NW OF THE H85 LOW YET WITH MINOR
INDICATIONS OF STATIC/INERTIAL INSTABILITY PER -EPV. CAN NOT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SW-NE BANDS OF HEAVIER RETURNS PER WSR-88D
RADAR DURING THE EVENT THAT WILL YIELD LOCALLY HIGHER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. ITS LIKELY WE WILL HAVE BETTER HANDLE IN
ANALYZING SUCH OUTCOMES WHEN NEAR-TERM HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
BECOMES AVAILABLE.

THERMAL SETUP / SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...

IF A COASTAL FRONT SETUP EMERGES BENEATH NEAR-ISOTHERMAL PROFILES
AROUND -5C UP TO H7 THEN WOULD EXPECT SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS RANGING
FROM 10:1 TO 15:1 AS SREF METEOGRAMS SUGGEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR...
WITH COASTAL RAINS.

QUITE A RANGE THAT HAS SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
CHALLENGES OF SNOWFALL RATES DURING THE TIME OF DAY /LIKELY WILL SEE
DIFFICULTY IN ACCUMULATING SNOWS DURING THE DAY WITH MARGINALLY COLD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES/...ALSO WET-BULBING TO EQUILIBRIUM WITHIN THE
FIRST 1 KFT ABOVE THE SURFACE...AND WHERE WE WILL EFFECTIVELY WET-
BULB AND/OR WHERE AREAS ARE OVERCOME BY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES.

SO IN ADDITION TO THE INITIAL START/CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...SPEED OF
THE SYSTEM AND IMPACTS TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...AND RANGE OF SNOW-
TO-LIQUID RATIOS...IT IS AN INCREDIBLY HUGE CHALLENGE TO NAIL DOWN
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. ONE KEY TO THIS ENTIRE FORECAST IS THE TRACK OF
THE H85 LOW ALONG WITH H925 TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -2C.

THE DIVIDING FREEZING LINE IS VARIED AMONG PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS
BUT NARROWING DOWN IN VICINITY OF THE AREA BETWEEN THE CT I-395 TO
THE I-90/I-290/I-495 MA CORRIDOR TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

SO AFTER PULLING OUT ALL MY HAIR...INTANGIBLES NOTED ABOVE MAKE THE
SNOWFALL FORECAST TEDIOUS. FEEL DURING THE DAY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL OCCUR AT 32-DEGREES OR BELOW WITH SNOW OCCURRING AT 36-DEGREES
OR LOWER. THIS LOWERED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE PRIOR SHIFT. IN
COLLABORATION WITH WPC...BROAD AREA OF 6+ INCHES WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA W OF NW MA TO NW RI ENCOMPASSING ALL OF CT EXCEPT COASTAL
COMMUNITIES. AMOUNTS AROUND 8-10 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

CONTINUED THINKING THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE WIGGLE ROOM OF THE RAIN-
SNOW BAND DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL PROFILES IN THE FORECAST.
EXPECT CHANGES WITHIN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE GRADIENT ADVERTISED
AROUND THE AREA IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

WINDS...

CONSISTENT NE-FLOW OVER E MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BUT DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG THE
STORM ACTUALLY GETS...WHICH AGAIN IS UNCERTAIN. WIND ADVISORY HEAD-
LINES MAY BE NEEDED...BUT IF THEY ARE WOULD EXPECT THAT IT WOULD BE
ON THE LOW-END OF CRITERIA WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH.

COASTAL FLOODING...

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. ANTICIPATING A SHORT-RESIDENCY TIME OF THE STORM...PERHAPS
A MINOR SURGE AND MAYBE SOME SPLASHOVER IF THE NE-WINDS DISCUSSED
ABOVE VERIFY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
WILL ROTATE AROUND BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER EASTERN STATES. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS FROM TIME TO TIME. WE
SHOULD SEE BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES SUN AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
NEXT MON. MAY SEE FEW SHOWERS WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

0Z UPDATE...

COLD FRONT /UNV-SYR-MSS/ SWEEPS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AROUND 9Z.
EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS LOWEST ALONG THE S-SHORELINE
WITH IFR-VLIFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG WITH GUSTY SW-WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AROUND 25-30 KTS INITIALLY GRADUALLY RELAXING. THE BREEZY
FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE MAJORITY OF FOG AWAY.

IMPROVING VFR THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND INTO THE DAY WITH
CONTINUED W/SW WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SPECIFIC TIMING AS TO
IMPROVEMENT OVER THE TERMINAL IS NOT ENTIRELY CERTAIN.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
WITH CIGS LIFTING TOWARDS 8Z. MAY LIFT FASTER THAN FORECAST.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION SNOWS OVER INTERIOR
TERMINALS IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. +SN POSSIBLE.
AROUND 40 KT NE-WINDS ACROSS E MA / CAPE COD / ISLANDS...ALONG
WITH +RA. MIX OF IFR-VLIFR CONDITIONS.

FRI...VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

1130 PM UPDATE...

HAVE ENDED THE SMALL CRAFT FOR BOSTON HARBOR/NARRAGANSETT BAY AT
10 PM AS WINDS/SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED. WINDS HAVE ALSO DROPPED BELOW
GALE ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE
TO GALE FORCE AGAIN WED. HAVE ISSUED GALE WATCH FOR THOSE WATERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30
KTS. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THE WATERS TOWARDS TUESDAY MORNING
SWITCHING THE WINDS TO SW. SEAS REMAINING CHOPPY.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
YET WITH WEAK CAA ALOFT EXPECT GUSTS TO REMAIN UP TO 20-25 KTS.
SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO RESPONSE. SO SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED PASSING NE AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF
NANTUCKET MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. LIKELY NE GALES OVER E MA / CAPE COD /
ISLANDS...AND ALL WATERS. HEAVY RAIN LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST ON OUTER WATERS DUE TO 25KT GUSTS
AND 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ002>006-008>012-026.
NH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR RIZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ232>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-255-
     256.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL/EVT
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL/JWD
MARINE...EVT/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 250449
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1149 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A QUIET AND MILD TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTY SW WINDS.
NOR`EASTER FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
1130 PM UPDATE...
AREA OF CLOUDS HAS MOVED NE OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH 03Z...THEN
ANOTHER AREA OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IS PUSHING INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN AREAS ON SW WINDS AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THE REGION.

DEWPTS STARTING TO FALL ACROSS CENTRAL VT /FROM KLEB TO KRUT AT
04Z/...BUT NO TRUE WIND SHIFT NOTED. BAND OF SHOWERS DELINEATING
THE FRONT CUTTING ACROSS EXTREME N NH...N CENTRAL VT INTO UPSTATE
NY. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE WITH RATHER WIDE TEMP/DEWPT
SPREADS CAUSING PRECIP TO EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND.
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS SEEN S OF NEW ENGLAND ON NE REGIONAL 88D
RADAR ALSO MOVING NE...WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLY CLIPPING THE
OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET OVERNIGHT. ALSO NOTING FOG DEVELOPING
ALONG THE S COAST WHICH SHOULD LINGER THROUGH MOST OF IF NOT THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW.

HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
INCREASING TEMPS A BIT OVERNIGHT. UNCERTAIN ON TIMING OF COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SW INTO TUE MORNING.
ALSO EXTENDED FOG COVERAGE ALONG S COAST THROUGH 08Z-10Z THEN
START TO INCREASE VSBYS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STILL A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION MAINTAINED BY
CONTINUED BLUSTERY FLOW. QUITE IMPRESSIVE WARMTH CONTINUES AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT A MIX OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...THE WORST
OF WHICH WILL BE ACROSS THE S COASTLINE INCLUDING CAPE COD /
ISLANDS. AS THE FRONT SWEEPS THE REGION...AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION BUT MAINLY A DRY PUSH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE IN ON TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR A QUIET
WEATHER DAY. STILL A DESCENT JET ALOFT SO WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTY
WINDS AROUND 15-25 MPH DURING THE DAY. CAA WILL BEGIN TO POOL IN SO
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S...STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. QUIET OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - NOR`EASTER WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
 - SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WHICH WILL DISRUPT TRAVEL
 - PLOWABLE SNOWS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
 - POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND /CAPE COD - ISLANDS/
 - STRONG NE-WINDS ACROSS E MA / CAPE COD / ISLANDS

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

OVERVIEW...

INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NARROWING IN ON A FOCUS OF A STORM TRACK
AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. BUT IT CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO
RESOLVE SPECIFIC DETAILS ACROSS THE REGION. AGAIN...WE REALLY MAY
NOT KNOW THE TRUE OUTCOMES TILL JUST A DAY OR TWO PRIOR.

WEIGHED PREFERENCE UPON THE 24.15Z SREF / 24.12Z GFS ... AND NOW THE
24.12Z ECMWF HAS FINALLY COME ABOARD...HOORAY! NOW WITH A CONSISTENT
STORM-TRACK...IMPACTS BEGIN WEDNESDAY MORNING...INCREASING INTO THE
EVENING WITH THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE STORM
WINDING DOWN THURSDAY MORNING.

SYNOPTICALLY...

BASED ON A PREFERRED MODEL CONSENSUS ABOVE: LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES
FROM THE GULF TUESDAY NE ACROSS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET
AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. ACCOMPANYING H85 LOW PASSES NE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE CAPE COD CANAL TO NW OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK.

DURING WEDNESDAY...BAROCLINIC LEAF / OVER-RUNNING PATTERN OF BROAD-
SCALE ASCENT YIELDS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING DYNAMICALLY COOLING WITH
TIME. WITH SURFACE INTERIOR N-FLOW WITH COASTAL NE-FLOW...AND DRIER
AIR N/W...AM EXPECTING WETBULBING TOWARDS THE DEWPOINT TO AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK THE DIVISION OF WHICH MAY BE ALONG A POSSIBLE COASTAL
FRONT SETUP IMMEDIATELY N/W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. EXPECT INITIAL
RAINS FOR INTERIOR LOCALES CHANGING OVER TO SNOW THROUGH THE DAY...
AS TO THE TIMING OF THAT TRANSITION REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INTENSIFYING LOW SWEEPS NE AROUND THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. WITH A PROGRESSIVE FLOW-PATTERN /+NAO/ AND
ABSENCE OF A CLOSED-LOW ABOVE H85 /MORE EMPHASIS OF AN ANTI-CYCLONIC
BRANCH OF THE WARM CONVEYER BELT/...WITH LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG POLAR-LOW HOLDS ARCTIC AIR
REARWARD ACROSS C-CANADA /+AO/...EXPECTING THERMAL PROFILES AROUND
THE FREEZING MARK OVER INTERIOR S NEW ENGLAND...WHILE MILD OVER THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WITH CONTINUED THINKING OF MAINTAINED COASTAL-FRONT
SETUP PRIOR TO STORM PASSAGE.

PRECIPITATION OUTCOMES...

A FRONT-END THUMP IS ANTICIPATED WITH SLANTWISE FORCING PER FRONTO-
GENESIS NW OF H85 LOW EXTENDED E...ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF WEAK
TROWALING TOWARD THE NW-QUADRANT OF THE H85 LOW. BENEATH ENHANCED
ASCENT PER MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL-JET...STRONG
DEEP-LAYER LIFT THROUGH MOIST DENDRITIC ZONES SHOULD YIELD A NW-SE
PRECIPITATION GRADIENT ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP
IMMEDIATELY NW OF THE SURFACE LOW WHICH AGAIN SWEEPS NE AROUND THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK.

COULD BE TALKING STORM-TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND 1.5-2.0
INCHES FOR SE NEW ENGLAND WITH LESSENING AMOUNTS N/W WITH UP TO
AROUND 0.75-INCHES FOR NW MA AND SW NH. SEE DETAILS BELOW IN THE
THERMAL SETUP DISCUSSION THAT BREAKDOWN WHAT THOSE AMOUNTS COULD
EQUATE TO IN TERMS OF SNOW. AGAIN...INITIAL PRECIP WILL LIKELY START
OUT AS RAIN FOR SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW.

F-GEN SW-NE BANDING IS EVIDENT NW OF THE H85 LOW YET WITH MINOR
INDICATIONS OF STATIC/INERTIAL INSTABILITY PER -EPV. CAN NOT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SW-NE BANDS OF HEAVIER RETURNS PER WSR-88D
RADAR DURING THE EVENT THAT WILL YIELD LOCALLY HIGHER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. ITS LIKELY WE WILL HAVE BETTER HANDLE IN
ANALYZING SUCH OUTCOMES WHEN NEAR-TERM HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
BECOMES AVAILABLE.

THERMAL SETUP / SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...

IF A COASTAL FRONT SETUP EMERGES BENEATH NEAR-ISOTHERMAL PROFILES
AROUND -5C UP TO H7 THEN WOULD EXPECT SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS RANGING
FROM 10:1 TO 15:1 AS SREF METEOGRAMS SUGGEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR...
WITH COASTAL RAINS.

QUITE A RANGE THAT HAS SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
CHALLENGES OF SNOWFALL RATES DURING THE TIME OF DAY /LIKELY WILL SEE
DIFFICULTY IN ACCUMULATING SNOWS DURING THE DAY WITH MARGINALLY COLD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES/...ALSO WET-BULBING TO EQUILIBRIUM WITHIN THE
FIRST 1 KFT ABOVE THE SURFACE...AND WHERE WE WILL EFFECTIVELY WET-
BULB AND/OR WHERE AREAS ARE OVERCOME BY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES.

SO IN ADDITION TO THE INITIAL START/CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...SPEED OF
THE SYSTEM AND IMPACTS TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...AND RANGE OF SNOW-
TO-LIQUID RATIOS...IT IS AN INCREDIBLY HUGE CHALLENGE TO NAIL DOWN
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. ONE KEY TO THIS ENTIRE FORECAST IS THE TRACK OF
THE H85 LOW ALONG WITH H925 TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -2C.

THE DIVIDING FREEZING LINE IS VARIED AMONG PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS
BUT NARROWING DOWN IN VICINITY OF THE AREA BETWEEN THE CT I-395 TO
THE I-90/I-290/I-495 MA CORRIDOR TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

SO AFTER PULLING OUT ALL MY HAIR...INTANGIBLES NOTED ABOVE MAKE THE
SNOWFALL FORECAST TEDIOUS. FEEL DURING THE DAY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL OCCUR AT 32-DEGREES OR BELOW WITH SNOW OCCURRING AT 36-DEGREES
OR LOWER. THIS LOWERED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE PRIOR SHIFT. IN
COLLABORATION WITH WPC...BROAD AREA OF 6+ INCHES WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA W OF NW MA TO NW RI ENCOMPASSING ALL OF CT EXCEPT COASTAL
COMMUNITIES. AMOUNTS AROUND 8-10 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

CONTINUED THINKING THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE WIGGLE ROOM OF THE RAIN-
SNOW BAND DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL PROFILES IN THE FORECAST.
EXPECT CHANGES WITHIN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE GRADIENT ADVERTISED
AROUND THE AREA IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

WINDS...

CONSISTENT NE-FLOW OVER E MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BUT DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG THE
STORM ACTUALLY GETS...WHICH AGAIN IS UNCERTAIN. WIND ADVISORY HEAD-
LINES MAY BE NEEDED...BUT IF THEY ARE WOULD EXPECT THAT IT WOULD BE
ON THE LOW-END OF CRITERIA WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH.

COASTAL FLOODING...

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. ANTICIPATING A SHORT-RESIDENCY TIME OF THE STORM...PERHAPS
A MINOR SURGE AND MAYBE SOME SPLASHOVER IF THE NE-WINDS DISCUSSED
ABOVE VERIFY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
WILL ROTATE AROUND BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER EASTERN STATES. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS FROM TIME TO TIME. WE
SHOULD SEE BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES SUN AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
NEXT MON. MAY SEE FEW SHOWERS WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

0Z UPDATE...

COLD FRONT /UNV-SYR-MSS/ SWEEPS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AROUND 9Z.
EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS LOWEST ALONG THE S-SHORELINE
WITH IFR-VLIFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG WITH GUSTY SW-WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AROUND 25-30 KTS INITIALLY GRADUALLY RELAXING. THE BREEZY
FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE MAJORITY OF FOG AWAY.

IMPROVING VFR THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND INTO THE DAY WITH
CONTINUED W/SW WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SPECIFIC TIMING AS TO
IMPROVEMENT OVER THE TERMINAL IS NOT ENTIRELY CERTAIN.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
WITH CIGS LIFTING TOWARDS 8Z. MAY LIFT FASTER THAN FORECAST.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION SNOWS OVER INTERIOR
TERMINALS IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. +SN POSSIBLE.
AROUND 40 KT NE-WINDS ACROSS E MA / CAPE COD / ISLANDS...ALONG
WITH +RA. MIX OF IFR-VLIFR CONDITIONS.

FRI...VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

1130 PM UPDATE...

HAVE ENDED THE SMALL CRAFT FOR BOSTON HARBOR/NARRAGANSETT BAY AT
10 PM AS WINDS/SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED. WINDS HAVE ALSO DROPPED BELOW
GALE ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE
TO GALE FORCE AGAIN WED. HAVE ISSUED GALE WATCH FOR THOSE WATERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30
KTS. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THE WATERS TOWARDS TUESDAY MORNING
SWITCHING THE WINDS TO SW. SEAS REMAINING CHOPPY.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
YET WITH WEAK CAA ALOFT EXPECT GUSTS TO REMAIN UP TO 20-25 KTS.
SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO RESPONSE. SO SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED PASSING NE AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF
NANTUCKET MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. LIKELY NE GALES OVER E MA / CAPE COD /
ISLANDS...AND ALL WATERS. HEAVY RAIN LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST ON OUTER WATERS DUE TO 25KT GUSTS
AND 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ002>006-008>012-026.
NH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR RIZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ232>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-255-
     256.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL/EVT
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL/JWD
MARINE...EVT/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 250449
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1149 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A QUIET AND MILD TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTY SW WINDS.
NOR`EASTER FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
1130 PM UPDATE...
AREA OF CLOUDS HAS MOVED NE OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH 03Z...THEN
ANOTHER AREA OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IS PUSHING INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN AREAS ON SW WINDS AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THE REGION.

DEWPTS STARTING TO FALL ACROSS CENTRAL VT /FROM KLEB TO KRUT AT
04Z/...BUT NO TRUE WIND SHIFT NOTED. BAND OF SHOWERS DELINEATING
THE FRONT CUTTING ACROSS EXTREME N NH...N CENTRAL VT INTO UPSTATE
NY. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE WITH RATHER WIDE TEMP/DEWPT
SPREADS CAUSING PRECIP TO EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND.
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS SEEN S OF NEW ENGLAND ON NE REGIONAL 88D
RADAR ALSO MOVING NE...WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLY CLIPPING THE
OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET OVERNIGHT. ALSO NOTING FOG DEVELOPING
ALONG THE S COAST WHICH SHOULD LINGER THROUGH MOST OF IF NOT THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW.

HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
INCREASING TEMPS A BIT OVERNIGHT. UNCERTAIN ON TIMING OF COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SW INTO TUE MORNING.
ALSO EXTENDED FOG COVERAGE ALONG S COAST THROUGH 08Z-10Z THEN
START TO INCREASE VSBYS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STILL A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION MAINTAINED BY
CONTINUED BLUSTERY FLOW. QUITE IMPRESSIVE WARMTH CONTINUES AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT A MIX OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...THE WORST
OF WHICH WILL BE ACROSS THE S COASTLINE INCLUDING CAPE COD /
ISLANDS. AS THE FRONT SWEEPS THE REGION...AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION BUT MAINLY A DRY PUSH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE IN ON TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR A QUIET
WEATHER DAY. STILL A DESCENT JET ALOFT SO WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTY
WINDS AROUND 15-25 MPH DURING THE DAY. CAA WILL BEGIN TO POOL IN SO
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S...STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. QUIET OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - NOR`EASTER WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
 - SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WHICH WILL DISRUPT TRAVEL
 - PLOWABLE SNOWS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
 - POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND /CAPE COD - ISLANDS/
 - STRONG NE-WINDS ACROSS E MA / CAPE COD / ISLANDS

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

OVERVIEW...

INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NARROWING IN ON A FOCUS OF A STORM TRACK
AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. BUT IT CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO
RESOLVE SPECIFIC DETAILS ACROSS THE REGION. AGAIN...WE REALLY MAY
NOT KNOW THE TRUE OUTCOMES TILL JUST A DAY OR TWO PRIOR.

WEIGHED PREFERENCE UPON THE 24.15Z SREF / 24.12Z GFS ... AND NOW THE
24.12Z ECMWF HAS FINALLY COME ABOARD...HOORAY! NOW WITH A CONSISTENT
STORM-TRACK...IMPACTS BEGIN WEDNESDAY MORNING...INCREASING INTO THE
EVENING WITH THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE STORM
WINDING DOWN THURSDAY MORNING.

SYNOPTICALLY...

BASED ON A PREFERRED MODEL CONSENSUS ABOVE: LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES
FROM THE GULF TUESDAY NE ACROSS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET
AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. ACCOMPANYING H85 LOW PASSES NE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE CAPE COD CANAL TO NW OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK.

DURING WEDNESDAY...BAROCLINIC LEAF / OVER-RUNNING PATTERN OF BROAD-
SCALE ASCENT YIELDS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING DYNAMICALLY COOLING WITH
TIME. WITH SURFACE INTERIOR N-FLOW WITH COASTAL NE-FLOW...AND DRIER
AIR N/W...AM EXPECTING WETBULBING TOWARDS THE DEWPOINT TO AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK THE DIVISION OF WHICH MAY BE ALONG A POSSIBLE COASTAL
FRONT SETUP IMMEDIATELY N/W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. EXPECT INITIAL
RAINS FOR INTERIOR LOCALES CHANGING OVER TO SNOW THROUGH THE DAY...
AS TO THE TIMING OF THAT TRANSITION REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INTENSIFYING LOW SWEEPS NE AROUND THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. WITH A PROGRESSIVE FLOW-PATTERN /+NAO/ AND
ABSENCE OF A CLOSED-LOW ABOVE H85 /MORE EMPHASIS OF AN ANTI-CYCLONIC
BRANCH OF THE WARM CONVEYER BELT/...WITH LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG POLAR-LOW HOLDS ARCTIC AIR
REARWARD ACROSS C-CANADA /+AO/...EXPECTING THERMAL PROFILES AROUND
THE FREEZING MARK OVER INTERIOR S NEW ENGLAND...WHILE MILD OVER THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WITH CONTINUED THINKING OF MAINTAINED COASTAL-FRONT
SETUP PRIOR TO STORM PASSAGE.

PRECIPITATION OUTCOMES...

A FRONT-END THUMP IS ANTICIPATED WITH SLANTWISE FORCING PER FRONTO-
GENESIS NW OF H85 LOW EXTENDED E...ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF WEAK
TROWALING TOWARD THE NW-QUADRANT OF THE H85 LOW. BENEATH ENHANCED
ASCENT PER MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL-JET...STRONG
DEEP-LAYER LIFT THROUGH MOIST DENDRITIC ZONES SHOULD YIELD A NW-SE
PRECIPITATION GRADIENT ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP
IMMEDIATELY NW OF THE SURFACE LOW WHICH AGAIN SWEEPS NE AROUND THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK.

COULD BE TALKING STORM-TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND 1.5-2.0
INCHES FOR SE NEW ENGLAND WITH LESSENING AMOUNTS N/W WITH UP TO
AROUND 0.75-INCHES FOR NW MA AND SW NH. SEE DETAILS BELOW IN THE
THERMAL SETUP DISCUSSION THAT BREAKDOWN WHAT THOSE AMOUNTS COULD
EQUATE TO IN TERMS OF SNOW. AGAIN...INITIAL PRECIP WILL LIKELY START
OUT AS RAIN FOR SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW.

F-GEN SW-NE BANDING IS EVIDENT NW OF THE H85 LOW YET WITH MINOR
INDICATIONS OF STATIC/INERTIAL INSTABILITY PER -EPV. CAN NOT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SW-NE BANDS OF HEAVIER RETURNS PER WSR-88D
RADAR DURING THE EVENT THAT WILL YIELD LOCALLY HIGHER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. ITS LIKELY WE WILL HAVE BETTER HANDLE IN
ANALYZING SUCH OUTCOMES WHEN NEAR-TERM HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
BECOMES AVAILABLE.

THERMAL SETUP / SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...

IF A COASTAL FRONT SETUP EMERGES BENEATH NEAR-ISOTHERMAL PROFILES
AROUND -5C UP TO H7 THEN WOULD EXPECT SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS RANGING
FROM 10:1 TO 15:1 AS SREF METEOGRAMS SUGGEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR...
WITH COASTAL RAINS.

QUITE A RANGE THAT HAS SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
CHALLENGES OF SNOWFALL RATES DURING THE TIME OF DAY /LIKELY WILL SEE
DIFFICULTY IN ACCUMULATING SNOWS DURING THE DAY WITH MARGINALLY COLD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES/...ALSO WET-BULBING TO EQUILIBRIUM WITHIN THE
FIRST 1 KFT ABOVE THE SURFACE...AND WHERE WE WILL EFFECTIVELY WET-
BULB AND/OR WHERE AREAS ARE OVERCOME BY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES.

SO IN ADDITION TO THE INITIAL START/CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...SPEED OF
THE SYSTEM AND IMPACTS TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...AND RANGE OF SNOW-
TO-LIQUID RATIOS...IT IS AN INCREDIBLY HUGE CHALLENGE TO NAIL DOWN
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. ONE KEY TO THIS ENTIRE FORECAST IS THE TRACK OF
THE H85 LOW ALONG WITH H925 TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -2C.

THE DIVIDING FREEZING LINE IS VARIED AMONG PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS
BUT NARROWING DOWN IN VICINITY OF THE AREA BETWEEN THE CT I-395 TO
THE I-90/I-290/I-495 MA CORRIDOR TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

SO AFTER PULLING OUT ALL MY HAIR...INTANGIBLES NOTED ABOVE MAKE THE
SNOWFALL FORECAST TEDIOUS. FEEL DURING THE DAY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL OCCUR AT 32-DEGREES OR BELOW WITH SNOW OCCURRING AT 36-DEGREES
OR LOWER. THIS LOWERED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE PRIOR SHIFT. IN
COLLABORATION WITH WPC...BROAD AREA OF 6+ INCHES WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA W OF NW MA TO NW RI ENCOMPASSING ALL OF CT EXCEPT COASTAL
COMMUNITIES. AMOUNTS AROUND 8-10 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

CONTINUED THINKING THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE WIGGLE ROOM OF THE RAIN-
SNOW BAND DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL PROFILES IN THE FORECAST.
EXPECT CHANGES WITHIN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE GRADIENT ADVERTISED
AROUND THE AREA IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

WINDS...

CONSISTENT NE-FLOW OVER E MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BUT DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG THE
STORM ACTUALLY GETS...WHICH AGAIN IS UNCERTAIN. WIND ADVISORY HEAD-
LINES MAY BE NEEDED...BUT IF THEY ARE WOULD EXPECT THAT IT WOULD BE
ON THE LOW-END OF CRITERIA WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH.

COASTAL FLOODING...

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. ANTICIPATING A SHORT-RESIDENCY TIME OF THE STORM...PERHAPS
A MINOR SURGE AND MAYBE SOME SPLASHOVER IF THE NE-WINDS DISCUSSED
ABOVE VERIFY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
WILL ROTATE AROUND BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER EASTERN STATES. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS FROM TIME TO TIME. WE
SHOULD SEE BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES SUN AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
NEXT MON. MAY SEE FEW SHOWERS WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

0Z UPDATE...

COLD FRONT /UNV-SYR-MSS/ SWEEPS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AROUND 9Z.
EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS LOWEST ALONG THE S-SHORELINE
WITH IFR-VLIFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG WITH GUSTY SW-WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AROUND 25-30 KTS INITIALLY GRADUALLY RELAXING. THE BREEZY
FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE MAJORITY OF FOG AWAY.

IMPROVING VFR THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND INTO THE DAY WITH
CONTINUED W/SW WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SPECIFIC TIMING AS TO
IMPROVEMENT OVER THE TERMINAL IS NOT ENTIRELY CERTAIN.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
WITH CIGS LIFTING TOWARDS 8Z. MAY LIFT FASTER THAN FORECAST.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION SNOWS OVER INTERIOR
TERMINALS IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. +SN POSSIBLE.
AROUND 40 KT NE-WINDS ACROSS E MA / CAPE COD / ISLANDS...ALONG
WITH +RA. MIX OF IFR-VLIFR CONDITIONS.

FRI...VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

1130 PM UPDATE...

HAVE ENDED THE SMALL CRAFT FOR BOSTON HARBOR/NARRAGANSETT BAY AT
10 PM AS WINDS/SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED. WINDS HAVE ALSO DROPPED BELOW
GALE ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE
TO GALE FORCE AGAIN WED. HAVE ISSUED GALE WATCH FOR THOSE WATERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30
KTS. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THE WATERS TOWARDS TUESDAY MORNING
SWITCHING THE WINDS TO SW. SEAS REMAINING CHOPPY.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
YET WITH WEAK CAA ALOFT EXPECT GUSTS TO REMAIN UP TO 20-25 KTS.
SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO RESPONSE. SO SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED PASSING NE AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF
NANTUCKET MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. LIKELY NE GALES OVER E MA / CAPE COD /
ISLANDS...AND ALL WATERS. HEAVY RAIN LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST ON OUTER WATERS DUE TO 25KT GUSTS
AND 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ002>006-008>012-026.
NH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR RIZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ232>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-255-
     256.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL/EVT
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL/JWD
MARINE...EVT/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 242343
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
643 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

AFTER A WET AND MILD DAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A QUIET AND MILD TUESDAY WITH
SOME GUSTY SW WINDS. NOR`EASTER FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. GRADUALLY
TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

7 PM UPDATE...

STILL A LOT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION MAINTAINED BY
CONTINUED BLUSTERY FLOW. CAN SEE THE WEAK COLD FRONT PROGRESSING E
ACROSS UPSTATE NY / PA...WITH NOTABLY SOME LIGHTNING PRESENT ALONG
THE NY / CANADIAN BORDER. QUITE THE IMPRESSIVE WARMTH CONTINUES
PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT WHICH SWEEPS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
A MIX OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...THE WORST OF WHICH WILL BE ACROSS
THE S-COASTLINE INCLUDING CAPE COD / ISLANDS. AS THE FRONT SWEEPS
THE REGION...AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION
BUT MAINLY A DRY PUSH. CONDITIONS CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. AGAIN...REMAINING MILD WITH NEAR STEADY TEMPS
PRIOR TO THE FRONT...DROPPING OFF THEREAFTER. GUSTY SW-WINDS AHEAD
WITH GUSTS AROUND 15-20 MPH...STRONGER MORE SO OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN AND ADJACENT WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE IN ON TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR A QUIET
WEATHER DAY. STILL A DESCENT JET ALOFT SO WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTY
WINDS AROUND 15-25 MPH DURING THE DAY. CAA WILL BEGIN TO POOL IN SO
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S...STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. QUIET OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - NOR`EASTER WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
 - SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WHICH WILL DISRUPT TRAVEL
 - PLOWABLE SNOWS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
 - POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND /CAPE COD - ISLANDS/
 - STRONG NE-WINDS ACROSS E MA / CAPE COD / ISLANDS

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

OVERVIEW...

INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NARROWING IN ON A FOCUS OF A STORM TRACK
AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. BUT IT CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO
RESOLVE SPECIFIC DETAILS ACROSS THE REGION. AGAIN...WE REALLY MAY
NOT KNOW THE TRUE OUTCOMES TILL JUST A DAY OR TWO PRIOR.

WEIGHED PREFERENCE UPON THE 24.15Z SREF / 24.12Z GFS ... AND NOW THE
24.12Z ECMWF HAS FINALLY COME ABOARD...HOORAY! NOW WITH A CONSISTENT
STORM-TRACK...IMPACTS BEGIN WEDNESDAY MORNING...INCREASING INTO THE
EVENING WITH THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE STORM
WINDING DOWN THURSDAY MORNING.

SYNOPTICALLY...

BASED ON A PREFERRED MODEL CONSENSUS ABOVE: LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES
FROM THE GULF TUESDAY NE ACROSS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET
AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. ACCOMPANYING H85 LOW PASSES NE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE CAPE COD CANAL TO NW OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK.

DURING WEDNESDAY...BAROCLINIC LEAF / OVER-RUNNING PATTERN OF BROAD-
SCALE ASCENT YIELDS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING DYNAMICALLY COOLING WITH
TIME. WITH SURFACE INTERIOR N-FLOW WITH COASTAL NE-FLOW...AND DRIER
AIR N/W...AM EXPECTING WETBULBING TOWARDS THE DEWPOINT TO AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK THE DIVISION OF WHICH MAY BE ALONG A POSSIBLE COASTAL
FRONT SETUP IMMEDIATELY N/W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. EXPECT INITIAL
RAINS FOR INTERIOR LOCALES CHANGING OVER TO SNOW THROUGH THE DAY...
AS TO THE TIMING OF THAT TRANSITION REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INTENSIFYING LOW SWEEPS NE AROUND THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. WITH A PROGRESSIVE FLOW-PATTERN /+NAO/ AND
ABSENCE OF A CLOSED-LOW ABOVE H85 /MORE EMPHASIS OF AN ANTI-CYCLONIC
BRANCH OF THE WARM CONVEYER BELT/...WITH LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG POLAR-LOW HOLDS ARCTIC AIR
REARWARD ACROSS C-CANADA /+AO/...EXPECTING THERMAL PROFILES AROUND
THE FREEZING MARK OVER INTERIOR S NEW ENGLAND...WHILE MILD OVER THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WITH CONTINUED THINKING OF MAINTAINED COASTAL-FRONT
SETUP PRIOR TO STORM PASSAGE.

PRECIPITATION OUTCOMES...

A FRONT-END THUMP IS ANTICIPATED WITH SLANTWISE FORCING PER FRONTO-
GENESIS NW OF H85 LOW EXTENDED E...ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF WEAK
TROWALING TOWARD THE NW-QUADRANT OF THE H85 LOW. BENEATH ENHANCED
ASCENT PER MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL-JET...STRONG
DEEP-LAYER LIFT THROUGH MOIST DENDRITIC ZONES SHOULD YIELD A NW-SE
PRECIPITATION GRADIENT ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP
IMMEDIATELY NW OF THE SURFACE LOW WHICH AGAIN SWEEPS NE AROUND THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK.

COULD BE TALKING STORM-TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND 1.5-2.0
INCHES FOR SE NEW ENGLAND WITH LESSENING AMOUNTS N/W WITH UP TO
AROUND 0.75-INCHES FOR NW MA AND SW NH. SEE DETAILS BELOW IN THE
THERMAL SETUP DISCUSSION THAT BREAKDOWN WHAT THOSE AMOUNTS COULD
EQUATE TO IN TERMS OF SNOW. AGAIN...INITIAL PRECIP WILL LIKELY START
OUT AS RAIN FOR SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW.

F-GEN SW-NE BANDING IS EVIDENT NW OF THE H85 LOW YET WITH MINOR
INDICATIONS OF STATIC/INERTIAL INSTABILITY PER -EPV. CAN NOT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SW-NE BANDS OF HEAVIER RETURNS PER WSR-88D
RADAR DURING THE EVENT THAT WILL YIELD LOCALLY HIGHER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. ITS LIKELY WE WILL HAVE BETTER HANDLE IN
ANALYZING SUCH OUTCOMES WHEN NEAR-TERM HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
BECOMES AVAILABLE.

THERMAL SETUP / SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...

IF A COASTAL FRONT SETUP EMERGES BENEATH NEAR-ISOTHERMAL PROFILES
AROUND -5C UP TO H7 THEN WOULD EXPECT SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS RANGING
FROM 10:1 TO 15:1 AS SREF METEOGRAMS SUGGEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR...
WITH COASTAL RAINS.

QUITE A RANGE THAT HAS SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
CHALLENGES OF SNOWFALL RATES DURING THE TIME OF DAY /LIKELY WILL SEE
DIFFICULTY IN ACCUMULATING SNOWS DURING THE DAY WITH MARGINALLY COLD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES/...ALSO WET-BULBING TO EQUILIBRIUM WITHIN THE
FIRST 1 KFT ABOVE THE SURFACE...AND WHERE WE WILL EFFECTIVELY WET-
BULB AND/OR WHERE AREAS ARE OVERCOME BY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES.

SO IN ADDITION TO THE INITIAL START/CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...SPEED OF
THE SYSTEM AND IMPACTS TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...AND RANGE OF SNOW-
TO-LIQUID RATIOS...IT IS AN INCREDIBLY HUGE CHALLENGE TO NAIL DOWN
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. ONE KEY TO THIS ENTIRE FORECAST IS THE TRACK OF
THE H85 LOW ALONG WITH H925 TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -2C.

THE DIVIDING FREEZING LINE IS VARIED AMONG PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS
BUT NARROWING DOWN IN VICINITY OF THE AREA BETWEEN THE CT I-395 TO
THE I-90/I-290/I-495 MA CORRIDOR TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

SO AFTER PULLING OUT ALL MY HAIR...INTANGIBLES NOTED ABOVE MAKE THE
SNOWFALL FORECAST TEDIOUS. FEEL DURING THE DAY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL OCCUR AT 32-DEGREES OR BELOW WITH SNOW OCCURRING AT 36-DEGREES
OR LOWER. THIS LOWERED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE PRIOR SHIFT. IN
COLLABORATION WITH WPC...BROAD AREA OF 6+ INCHES WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA W OF NW MA TO NW RI ENCOMPASSING ALL OF CT EXCEPT COASTAL
COMMUNITIES. AMOUNTS AROUND 8-10 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

CONTINUED THINKING THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE WIGGLE ROOM OF THE RAIN-
SNOW BAND DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL PROFILES IN THE FORECAST.
EXPECT CHANGES WITHIN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE GRADIENT ADVERTISED
AROUND THE AREA IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

WINDS...

CONSISTENT NE-FLOW OVER E MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BUT DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG THE
STORM ACTUALLY GETS...WHICH AGAIN IS UNCERTAIN. WIND ADVISORY HEAD-
LINES MAY BE NEEDED...BUT IF THEY ARE WOULD EXPECT THAT IT WOULD BE
ON THE LOW-END OF CRITERIA WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH.

COASTAL FLOODING...

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. ANTICIPATING A SHORT-RESIDENCY TIME OF THE STORM...PERHAPS
A MINOR SURGE AND MAYBE SOME SPLASHOVER IF THE NE-WINDS DISCUSSED
ABOVE VERIFY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
WILL ROTATE AROUND BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER EASTERN STATES. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS FROM TIME TO TIME. WE
SHOULD SEE BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES SUN AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
NEXT MON. MAY SEE FEW SHOWERS WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

0Z UPDATE...

COLD FRONT /UNV-SYR-MSS/ SWEEPS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AROUND 9Z.
EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS LOWEST ALONG THE S-SHORELINE
WITH IFR-VLIFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG WITH GUSTY SW-WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AROUND 25-30 KTS INITIALLY GRADUALLY RELAXING. THE BREEZY
FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE MAJORITY OF FOG AWAY.

IMPROVING VFR THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND INTO THE DAY WITH
CONTINUED W/SW WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SPECIFIC TIMING AS TO
IMPROVEMENT OVER THE TERMINAL IS NOT ENTIRELY CERTAIN.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
WITH CIGS LIFTING TOWARDS 8Z. MAY LIFT FASTER THAN FORECAST.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION SNOWS OVER INTERIOR
TERMINALS IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. +SN POSSIBLE.
AROUND 40 KT NE-WINDS ACROSS E MA / CAPE COD / ISLANDS...ALONG
WITH +RA. MIX OF IFR-VLIFR CONDITIONS.

FRI...VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

7 PM UPDATE...

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 TO
30 KTS. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THE WATERS TOWARDS TUESDAY
MORNING SWITCHING THE WINDS TO A MORE SW. WILL GRADUALLY DROP THE
GALES CONVERTING TO SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORIES. SEAS REMAINING CHOPPY.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
YET WITH WEAK CAA ALOFT EXPECT GUSTS TO REMAIN UP TO 20-25 KTS.
SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO RESPONSE. SO SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED PASSING NE AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF
NANTUCKET MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. LIKELY NE GALES OVER E MA / CAPE COD /
ISLANDS...AND ALL WATERS. HEAVY RAIN LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST ON OUTER WATERS DUE TO 25KT GUSTS
AND 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ002>006-008>012-026.
NH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR RIZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ232>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-255-
     256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL/JWD
MARINE...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL/JWD




000
FXUS61 KBOX 242343
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
643 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

AFTER A WET AND MILD DAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A QUIET AND MILD TUESDAY WITH
SOME GUSTY SW WINDS. NOR`EASTER FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. GRADUALLY
TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

7 PM UPDATE...

STILL A LOT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION MAINTAINED BY
CONTINUED BLUSTERY FLOW. CAN SEE THE WEAK COLD FRONT PROGRESSING E
ACROSS UPSTATE NY / PA...WITH NOTABLY SOME LIGHTNING PRESENT ALONG
THE NY / CANADIAN BORDER. QUITE THE IMPRESSIVE WARMTH CONTINUES
PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT WHICH SWEEPS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
A MIX OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...THE WORST OF WHICH WILL BE ACROSS
THE S-COASTLINE INCLUDING CAPE COD / ISLANDS. AS THE FRONT SWEEPS
THE REGION...AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION
BUT MAINLY A DRY PUSH. CONDITIONS CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. AGAIN...REMAINING MILD WITH NEAR STEADY TEMPS
PRIOR TO THE FRONT...DROPPING OFF THEREAFTER. GUSTY SW-WINDS AHEAD
WITH GUSTS AROUND 15-20 MPH...STRONGER MORE SO OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN AND ADJACENT WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE IN ON TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR A QUIET
WEATHER DAY. STILL A DESCENT JET ALOFT SO WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTY
WINDS AROUND 15-25 MPH DURING THE DAY. CAA WILL BEGIN TO POOL IN SO
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S...STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. QUIET OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - NOR`EASTER WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
 - SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WHICH WILL DISRUPT TRAVEL
 - PLOWABLE SNOWS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
 - POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND /CAPE COD - ISLANDS/
 - STRONG NE-WINDS ACROSS E MA / CAPE COD / ISLANDS

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

OVERVIEW...

INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NARROWING IN ON A FOCUS OF A STORM TRACK
AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. BUT IT CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO
RESOLVE SPECIFIC DETAILS ACROSS THE REGION. AGAIN...WE REALLY MAY
NOT KNOW THE TRUE OUTCOMES TILL JUST A DAY OR TWO PRIOR.

WEIGHED PREFERENCE UPON THE 24.15Z SREF / 24.12Z GFS ... AND NOW THE
24.12Z ECMWF HAS FINALLY COME ABOARD...HOORAY! NOW WITH A CONSISTENT
STORM-TRACK...IMPACTS BEGIN WEDNESDAY MORNING...INCREASING INTO THE
EVENING WITH THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE STORM
WINDING DOWN THURSDAY MORNING.

SYNOPTICALLY...

BASED ON A PREFERRED MODEL CONSENSUS ABOVE: LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES
FROM THE GULF TUESDAY NE ACROSS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET
AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. ACCOMPANYING H85 LOW PASSES NE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE CAPE COD CANAL TO NW OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK.

DURING WEDNESDAY...BAROCLINIC LEAF / OVER-RUNNING PATTERN OF BROAD-
SCALE ASCENT YIELDS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING DYNAMICALLY COOLING WITH
TIME. WITH SURFACE INTERIOR N-FLOW WITH COASTAL NE-FLOW...AND DRIER
AIR N/W...AM EXPECTING WETBULBING TOWARDS THE DEWPOINT TO AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK THE DIVISION OF WHICH MAY BE ALONG A POSSIBLE COASTAL
FRONT SETUP IMMEDIATELY N/W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. EXPECT INITIAL
RAINS FOR INTERIOR LOCALES CHANGING OVER TO SNOW THROUGH THE DAY...
AS TO THE TIMING OF THAT TRANSITION REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INTENSIFYING LOW SWEEPS NE AROUND THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. WITH A PROGRESSIVE FLOW-PATTERN /+NAO/ AND
ABSENCE OF A CLOSED-LOW ABOVE H85 /MORE EMPHASIS OF AN ANTI-CYCLONIC
BRANCH OF THE WARM CONVEYER BELT/...WITH LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG POLAR-LOW HOLDS ARCTIC AIR
REARWARD ACROSS C-CANADA /+AO/...EXPECTING THERMAL PROFILES AROUND
THE FREEZING MARK OVER INTERIOR S NEW ENGLAND...WHILE MILD OVER THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WITH CONTINUED THINKING OF MAINTAINED COASTAL-FRONT
SETUP PRIOR TO STORM PASSAGE.

PRECIPITATION OUTCOMES...

A FRONT-END THUMP IS ANTICIPATED WITH SLANTWISE FORCING PER FRONTO-
GENESIS NW OF H85 LOW EXTENDED E...ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF WEAK
TROWALING TOWARD THE NW-QUADRANT OF THE H85 LOW. BENEATH ENHANCED
ASCENT PER MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL-JET...STRONG
DEEP-LAYER LIFT THROUGH MOIST DENDRITIC ZONES SHOULD YIELD A NW-SE
PRECIPITATION GRADIENT ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP
IMMEDIATELY NW OF THE SURFACE LOW WHICH AGAIN SWEEPS NE AROUND THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK.

COULD BE TALKING STORM-TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND 1.5-2.0
INCHES FOR SE NEW ENGLAND WITH LESSENING AMOUNTS N/W WITH UP TO
AROUND 0.75-INCHES FOR NW MA AND SW NH. SEE DETAILS BELOW IN THE
THERMAL SETUP DISCUSSION THAT BREAKDOWN WHAT THOSE AMOUNTS COULD
EQUATE TO IN TERMS OF SNOW. AGAIN...INITIAL PRECIP WILL LIKELY START
OUT AS RAIN FOR SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW.

F-GEN SW-NE BANDING IS EVIDENT NW OF THE H85 LOW YET WITH MINOR
INDICATIONS OF STATIC/INERTIAL INSTABILITY PER -EPV. CAN NOT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SW-NE BANDS OF HEAVIER RETURNS PER WSR-88D
RADAR DURING THE EVENT THAT WILL YIELD LOCALLY HIGHER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. ITS LIKELY WE WILL HAVE BETTER HANDLE IN
ANALYZING SUCH OUTCOMES WHEN NEAR-TERM HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
BECOMES AVAILABLE.

THERMAL SETUP / SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...

IF A COASTAL FRONT SETUP EMERGES BENEATH NEAR-ISOTHERMAL PROFILES
AROUND -5C UP TO H7 THEN WOULD EXPECT SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS RANGING
FROM 10:1 TO 15:1 AS SREF METEOGRAMS SUGGEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR...
WITH COASTAL RAINS.

QUITE A RANGE THAT HAS SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
CHALLENGES OF SNOWFALL RATES DURING THE TIME OF DAY /LIKELY WILL SEE
DIFFICULTY IN ACCUMULATING SNOWS DURING THE DAY WITH MARGINALLY COLD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES/...ALSO WET-BULBING TO EQUILIBRIUM WITHIN THE
FIRST 1 KFT ABOVE THE SURFACE...AND WHERE WE WILL EFFECTIVELY WET-
BULB AND/OR WHERE AREAS ARE OVERCOME BY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES.

SO IN ADDITION TO THE INITIAL START/CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...SPEED OF
THE SYSTEM AND IMPACTS TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...AND RANGE OF SNOW-
TO-LIQUID RATIOS...IT IS AN INCREDIBLY HUGE CHALLENGE TO NAIL DOWN
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. ONE KEY TO THIS ENTIRE FORECAST IS THE TRACK OF
THE H85 LOW ALONG WITH H925 TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -2C.

THE DIVIDING FREEZING LINE IS VARIED AMONG PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS
BUT NARROWING DOWN IN VICINITY OF THE AREA BETWEEN THE CT I-395 TO
THE I-90/I-290/I-495 MA CORRIDOR TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

SO AFTER PULLING OUT ALL MY HAIR...INTANGIBLES NOTED ABOVE MAKE THE
SNOWFALL FORECAST TEDIOUS. FEEL DURING THE DAY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL OCCUR AT 32-DEGREES OR BELOW WITH SNOW OCCURRING AT 36-DEGREES
OR LOWER. THIS LOWERED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE PRIOR SHIFT. IN
COLLABORATION WITH WPC...BROAD AREA OF 6+ INCHES WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA W OF NW MA TO NW RI ENCOMPASSING ALL OF CT EXCEPT COASTAL
COMMUNITIES. AMOUNTS AROUND 8-10 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

CONTINUED THINKING THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE WIGGLE ROOM OF THE RAIN-
SNOW BAND DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL PROFILES IN THE FORECAST.
EXPECT CHANGES WITHIN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE GRADIENT ADVERTISED
AROUND THE AREA IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

WINDS...

CONSISTENT NE-FLOW OVER E MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BUT DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG THE
STORM ACTUALLY GETS...WHICH AGAIN IS UNCERTAIN. WIND ADVISORY HEAD-
LINES MAY BE NEEDED...BUT IF THEY ARE WOULD EXPECT THAT IT WOULD BE
ON THE LOW-END OF CRITERIA WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH.

COASTAL FLOODING...

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. ANTICIPATING A SHORT-RESIDENCY TIME OF THE STORM...PERHAPS
A MINOR SURGE AND MAYBE SOME SPLASHOVER IF THE NE-WINDS DISCUSSED
ABOVE VERIFY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
WILL ROTATE AROUND BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER EASTERN STATES. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS FROM TIME TO TIME. WE
SHOULD SEE BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES SUN AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
NEXT MON. MAY SEE FEW SHOWERS WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

0Z UPDATE...

COLD FRONT /UNV-SYR-MSS/ SWEEPS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AROUND 9Z.
EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS LOWEST ALONG THE S-SHORELINE
WITH IFR-VLIFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG WITH GUSTY SW-WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AROUND 25-30 KTS INITIALLY GRADUALLY RELAXING. THE BREEZY
FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE MAJORITY OF FOG AWAY.

IMPROVING VFR THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND INTO THE DAY WITH
CONTINUED W/SW WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SPECIFIC TIMING AS TO
IMPROVEMENT OVER THE TERMINAL IS NOT ENTIRELY CERTAIN.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
WITH CIGS LIFTING TOWARDS 8Z. MAY LIFT FASTER THAN FORECAST.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION SNOWS OVER INTERIOR
TERMINALS IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. +SN POSSIBLE.
AROUND 40 KT NE-WINDS ACROSS E MA / CAPE COD / ISLANDS...ALONG
WITH +RA. MIX OF IFR-VLIFR CONDITIONS.

FRI...VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

7 PM UPDATE...

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 TO
30 KTS. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THE WATERS TOWARDS TUESDAY
MORNING SWITCHING THE WINDS TO A MORE SW. WILL GRADUALLY DROP THE
GALES CONVERTING TO SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORIES. SEAS REMAINING CHOPPY.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
YET WITH WEAK CAA ALOFT EXPECT GUSTS TO REMAIN UP TO 20-25 KTS.
SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO RESPONSE. SO SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED PASSING NE AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF
NANTUCKET MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. LIKELY NE GALES OVER E MA / CAPE COD /
ISLANDS...AND ALL WATERS. HEAVY RAIN LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST ON OUTER WATERS DUE TO 25KT GUSTS
AND 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ002>006-008>012-026.
NH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR RIZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ232>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-255-
     256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL/JWD
MARINE...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL/JWD




000
FXUS61 KBOX 242343
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
643 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

AFTER A WET AND MILD DAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A QUIET AND MILD TUESDAY WITH
SOME GUSTY SW WINDS. NOR`EASTER FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. GRADUALLY
TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

7 PM UPDATE...

STILL A LOT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION MAINTAINED BY
CONTINUED BLUSTERY FLOW. CAN SEE THE WEAK COLD FRONT PROGRESSING E
ACROSS UPSTATE NY / PA...WITH NOTABLY SOME LIGHTNING PRESENT ALONG
THE NY / CANADIAN BORDER. QUITE THE IMPRESSIVE WARMTH CONTINUES
PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT WHICH SWEEPS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
A MIX OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...THE WORST OF WHICH WILL BE ACROSS
THE S-COASTLINE INCLUDING CAPE COD / ISLANDS. AS THE FRONT SWEEPS
THE REGION...AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION
BUT MAINLY A DRY PUSH. CONDITIONS CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. AGAIN...REMAINING MILD WITH NEAR STEADY TEMPS
PRIOR TO THE FRONT...DROPPING OFF THEREAFTER. GUSTY SW-WINDS AHEAD
WITH GUSTS AROUND 15-20 MPH...STRONGER MORE SO OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN AND ADJACENT WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE IN ON TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR A QUIET
WEATHER DAY. STILL A DESCENT JET ALOFT SO WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTY
WINDS AROUND 15-25 MPH DURING THE DAY. CAA WILL BEGIN TO POOL IN SO
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S...STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. QUIET OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - NOR`EASTER WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
 - SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WHICH WILL DISRUPT TRAVEL
 - PLOWABLE SNOWS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
 - POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND /CAPE COD - ISLANDS/
 - STRONG NE-WINDS ACROSS E MA / CAPE COD / ISLANDS

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

OVERVIEW...

INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NARROWING IN ON A FOCUS OF A STORM TRACK
AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. BUT IT CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO
RESOLVE SPECIFIC DETAILS ACROSS THE REGION. AGAIN...WE REALLY MAY
NOT KNOW THE TRUE OUTCOMES TILL JUST A DAY OR TWO PRIOR.

WEIGHED PREFERENCE UPON THE 24.15Z SREF / 24.12Z GFS ... AND NOW THE
24.12Z ECMWF HAS FINALLY COME ABOARD...HOORAY! NOW WITH A CONSISTENT
STORM-TRACK...IMPACTS BEGIN WEDNESDAY MORNING...INCREASING INTO THE
EVENING WITH THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE STORM
WINDING DOWN THURSDAY MORNING.

SYNOPTICALLY...

BASED ON A PREFERRED MODEL CONSENSUS ABOVE: LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES
FROM THE GULF TUESDAY NE ACROSS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET
AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. ACCOMPANYING H85 LOW PASSES NE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE CAPE COD CANAL TO NW OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK.

DURING WEDNESDAY...BAROCLINIC LEAF / OVER-RUNNING PATTERN OF BROAD-
SCALE ASCENT YIELDS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING DYNAMICALLY COOLING WITH
TIME. WITH SURFACE INTERIOR N-FLOW WITH COASTAL NE-FLOW...AND DRIER
AIR N/W...AM EXPECTING WETBULBING TOWARDS THE DEWPOINT TO AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK THE DIVISION OF WHICH MAY BE ALONG A POSSIBLE COASTAL
FRONT SETUP IMMEDIATELY N/W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. EXPECT INITIAL
RAINS FOR INTERIOR LOCALES CHANGING OVER TO SNOW THROUGH THE DAY...
AS TO THE TIMING OF THAT TRANSITION REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INTENSIFYING LOW SWEEPS NE AROUND THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. WITH A PROGRESSIVE FLOW-PATTERN /+NAO/ AND
ABSENCE OF A CLOSED-LOW ABOVE H85 /MORE EMPHASIS OF AN ANTI-CYCLONIC
BRANCH OF THE WARM CONVEYER BELT/...WITH LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG POLAR-LOW HOLDS ARCTIC AIR
REARWARD ACROSS C-CANADA /+AO/...EXPECTING THERMAL PROFILES AROUND
THE FREEZING MARK OVER INTERIOR S NEW ENGLAND...WHILE MILD OVER THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WITH CONTINUED THINKING OF MAINTAINED COASTAL-FRONT
SETUP PRIOR TO STORM PASSAGE.

PRECIPITATION OUTCOMES...

A FRONT-END THUMP IS ANTICIPATED WITH SLANTWISE FORCING PER FRONTO-
GENESIS NW OF H85 LOW EXTENDED E...ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF WEAK
TROWALING TOWARD THE NW-QUADRANT OF THE H85 LOW. BENEATH ENHANCED
ASCENT PER MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL-JET...STRONG
DEEP-LAYER LIFT THROUGH MOIST DENDRITIC ZONES SHOULD YIELD A NW-SE
PRECIPITATION GRADIENT ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP
IMMEDIATELY NW OF THE SURFACE LOW WHICH AGAIN SWEEPS NE AROUND THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK.

COULD BE TALKING STORM-TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND 1.5-2.0
INCHES FOR SE NEW ENGLAND WITH LESSENING AMOUNTS N/W WITH UP TO
AROUND 0.75-INCHES FOR NW MA AND SW NH. SEE DETAILS BELOW IN THE
THERMAL SETUP DISCUSSION THAT BREAKDOWN WHAT THOSE AMOUNTS COULD
EQUATE TO IN TERMS OF SNOW. AGAIN...INITIAL PRECIP WILL LIKELY START
OUT AS RAIN FOR SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW.

F-GEN SW-NE BANDING IS EVIDENT NW OF THE H85 LOW YET WITH MINOR
INDICATIONS OF STATIC/INERTIAL INSTABILITY PER -EPV. CAN NOT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SW-NE BANDS OF HEAVIER RETURNS PER WSR-88D
RADAR DURING THE EVENT THAT WILL YIELD LOCALLY HIGHER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. ITS LIKELY WE WILL HAVE BETTER HANDLE IN
ANALYZING SUCH OUTCOMES WHEN NEAR-TERM HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
BECOMES AVAILABLE.

THERMAL SETUP / SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...

IF A COASTAL FRONT SETUP EMERGES BENEATH NEAR-ISOTHERMAL PROFILES
AROUND -5C UP TO H7 THEN WOULD EXPECT SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS RANGING
FROM 10:1 TO 15:1 AS SREF METEOGRAMS SUGGEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR...
WITH COASTAL RAINS.

QUITE A RANGE THAT HAS SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
CHALLENGES OF SNOWFALL RATES DURING THE TIME OF DAY /LIKELY WILL SEE
DIFFICULTY IN ACCUMULATING SNOWS DURING THE DAY WITH MARGINALLY COLD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES/...ALSO WET-BULBING TO EQUILIBRIUM WITHIN THE
FIRST 1 KFT ABOVE THE SURFACE...AND WHERE WE WILL EFFECTIVELY WET-
BULB AND/OR WHERE AREAS ARE OVERCOME BY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES.

SO IN ADDITION TO THE INITIAL START/CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...SPEED OF
THE SYSTEM AND IMPACTS TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...AND RANGE OF SNOW-
TO-LIQUID RATIOS...IT IS AN INCREDIBLY HUGE CHALLENGE TO NAIL DOWN
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. ONE KEY TO THIS ENTIRE FORECAST IS THE TRACK OF
THE H85 LOW ALONG WITH H925 TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -2C.

THE DIVIDING FREEZING LINE IS VARIED AMONG PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS
BUT NARROWING DOWN IN VICINITY OF THE AREA BETWEEN THE CT I-395 TO
THE I-90/I-290/I-495 MA CORRIDOR TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

SO AFTER PULLING OUT ALL MY HAIR...INTANGIBLES NOTED ABOVE MAKE THE
SNOWFALL FORECAST TEDIOUS. FEEL DURING THE DAY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL OCCUR AT 32-DEGREES OR BELOW WITH SNOW OCCURRING AT 36-DEGREES
OR LOWER. THIS LOWERED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE PRIOR SHIFT. IN
COLLABORATION WITH WPC...BROAD AREA OF 6+ INCHES WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA W OF NW MA TO NW RI ENCOMPASSING ALL OF CT EXCEPT COASTAL
COMMUNITIES. AMOUNTS AROUND 8-10 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

CONTINUED THINKING THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE WIGGLE ROOM OF THE RAIN-
SNOW BAND DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL PROFILES IN THE FORECAST.
EXPECT CHANGES WITHIN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE GRADIENT ADVERTISED
AROUND THE AREA IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

WINDS...

CONSISTENT NE-FLOW OVER E MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BUT DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG THE
STORM ACTUALLY GETS...WHICH AGAIN IS UNCERTAIN. WIND ADVISORY HEAD-
LINES MAY BE NEEDED...BUT IF THEY ARE WOULD EXPECT THAT IT WOULD BE
ON THE LOW-END OF CRITERIA WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH.

COASTAL FLOODING...

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. ANTICIPATING A SHORT-RESIDENCY TIME OF THE STORM...PERHAPS
A MINOR SURGE AND MAYBE SOME SPLASHOVER IF THE NE-WINDS DISCUSSED
ABOVE VERIFY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
WILL ROTATE AROUND BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER EASTERN STATES. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS FROM TIME TO TIME. WE
SHOULD SEE BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES SUN AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
NEXT MON. MAY SEE FEW SHOWERS WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

0Z UPDATE...

COLD FRONT /UNV-SYR-MSS/ SWEEPS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AROUND 9Z.
EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS LOWEST ALONG THE S-SHORELINE
WITH IFR-VLIFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG WITH GUSTY SW-WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AROUND 25-30 KTS INITIALLY GRADUALLY RELAXING. THE BREEZY
FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE MAJORITY OF FOG AWAY.

IMPROVING VFR THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND INTO THE DAY WITH
CONTINUED W/SW WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SPECIFIC TIMING AS TO
IMPROVEMENT OVER THE TERMINAL IS NOT ENTIRELY CERTAIN.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
WITH CIGS LIFTING TOWARDS 8Z. MAY LIFT FASTER THAN FORECAST.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION SNOWS OVER INTERIOR
TERMINALS IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. +SN POSSIBLE.
AROUND 40 KT NE-WINDS ACROSS E MA / CAPE COD / ISLANDS...ALONG
WITH +RA. MIX OF IFR-VLIFR CONDITIONS.

FRI...VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

7 PM UPDATE...

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 TO
30 KTS. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THE WATERS TOWARDS TUESDAY
MORNING SWITCHING THE WINDS TO A MORE SW. WILL GRADUALLY DROP THE
GALES CONVERTING TO SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORIES. SEAS REMAINING CHOPPY.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
YET WITH WEAK CAA ALOFT EXPECT GUSTS TO REMAIN UP TO 20-25 KTS.
SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO RESPONSE. SO SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED PASSING NE AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF
NANTUCKET MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. LIKELY NE GALES OVER E MA / CAPE COD /
ISLANDS...AND ALL WATERS. HEAVY RAIN LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST ON OUTER WATERS DUE TO 25KT GUSTS
AND 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ002>006-008>012-026.
NH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR RIZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ232>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-255-
     256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL/JWD
MARINE...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL/JWD




000
FXUS61 KBOX 242343
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
643 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

AFTER A WET AND MILD DAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A QUIET AND MILD TUESDAY WITH
SOME GUSTY SW WINDS. NOR`EASTER FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. GRADUALLY
TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

7 PM UPDATE...

STILL A LOT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION MAINTAINED BY
CONTINUED BLUSTERY FLOW. CAN SEE THE WEAK COLD FRONT PROGRESSING E
ACROSS UPSTATE NY / PA...WITH NOTABLY SOME LIGHTNING PRESENT ALONG
THE NY / CANADIAN BORDER. QUITE THE IMPRESSIVE WARMTH CONTINUES
PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT WHICH SWEEPS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
A MIX OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...THE WORST OF WHICH WILL BE ACROSS
THE S-COASTLINE INCLUDING CAPE COD / ISLANDS. AS THE FRONT SWEEPS
THE REGION...AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION
BUT MAINLY A DRY PUSH. CONDITIONS CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. AGAIN...REMAINING MILD WITH NEAR STEADY TEMPS
PRIOR TO THE FRONT...DROPPING OFF THEREAFTER. GUSTY SW-WINDS AHEAD
WITH GUSTS AROUND 15-20 MPH...STRONGER MORE SO OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN AND ADJACENT WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE IN ON TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR A QUIET
WEATHER DAY. STILL A DESCENT JET ALOFT SO WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTY
WINDS AROUND 15-25 MPH DURING THE DAY. CAA WILL BEGIN TO POOL IN SO
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S...STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. QUIET OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - NOR`EASTER WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
 - SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WHICH WILL DISRUPT TRAVEL
 - PLOWABLE SNOWS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
 - POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND /CAPE COD - ISLANDS/
 - STRONG NE-WINDS ACROSS E MA / CAPE COD / ISLANDS

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

OVERVIEW...

INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NARROWING IN ON A FOCUS OF A STORM TRACK
AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. BUT IT CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO
RESOLVE SPECIFIC DETAILS ACROSS THE REGION. AGAIN...WE REALLY MAY
NOT KNOW THE TRUE OUTCOMES TILL JUST A DAY OR TWO PRIOR.

WEIGHED PREFERENCE UPON THE 24.15Z SREF / 24.12Z GFS ... AND NOW THE
24.12Z ECMWF HAS FINALLY COME ABOARD...HOORAY! NOW WITH A CONSISTENT
STORM-TRACK...IMPACTS BEGIN WEDNESDAY MORNING...INCREASING INTO THE
EVENING WITH THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE STORM
WINDING DOWN THURSDAY MORNING.

SYNOPTICALLY...

BASED ON A PREFERRED MODEL CONSENSUS ABOVE: LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES
FROM THE GULF TUESDAY NE ACROSS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET
AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. ACCOMPANYING H85 LOW PASSES NE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE CAPE COD CANAL TO NW OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK.

DURING WEDNESDAY...BAROCLINIC LEAF / OVER-RUNNING PATTERN OF BROAD-
SCALE ASCENT YIELDS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING DYNAMICALLY COOLING WITH
TIME. WITH SURFACE INTERIOR N-FLOW WITH COASTAL NE-FLOW...AND DRIER
AIR N/W...AM EXPECTING WETBULBING TOWARDS THE DEWPOINT TO AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK THE DIVISION OF WHICH MAY BE ALONG A POSSIBLE COASTAL
FRONT SETUP IMMEDIATELY N/W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. EXPECT INITIAL
RAINS FOR INTERIOR LOCALES CHANGING OVER TO SNOW THROUGH THE DAY...
AS TO THE TIMING OF THAT TRANSITION REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INTENSIFYING LOW SWEEPS NE AROUND THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. WITH A PROGRESSIVE FLOW-PATTERN /+NAO/ AND
ABSENCE OF A CLOSED-LOW ABOVE H85 /MORE EMPHASIS OF AN ANTI-CYCLONIC
BRANCH OF THE WARM CONVEYER BELT/...WITH LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG POLAR-LOW HOLDS ARCTIC AIR
REARWARD ACROSS C-CANADA /+AO/...EXPECTING THERMAL PROFILES AROUND
THE FREEZING MARK OVER INTERIOR S NEW ENGLAND...WHILE MILD OVER THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WITH CONTINUED THINKING OF MAINTAINED COASTAL-FRONT
SETUP PRIOR TO STORM PASSAGE.

PRECIPITATION OUTCOMES...

A FRONT-END THUMP IS ANTICIPATED WITH SLANTWISE FORCING PER FRONTO-
GENESIS NW OF H85 LOW EXTENDED E...ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF WEAK
TROWALING TOWARD THE NW-QUADRANT OF THE H85 LOW. BENEATH ENHANCED
ASCENT PER MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL-JET...STRONG
DEEP-LAYER LIFT THROUGH MOIST DENDRITIC ZONES SHOULD YIELD A NW-SE
PRECIPITATION GRADIENT ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP
IMMEDIATELY NW OF THE SURFACE LOW WHICH AGAIN SWEEPS NE AROUND THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK.

COULD BE TALKING STORM-TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND 1.5-2.0
INCHES FOR SE NEW ENGLAND WITH LESSENING AMOUNTS N/W WITH UP TO
AROUND 0.75-INCHES FOR NW MA AND SW NH. SEE DETAILS BELOW IN THE
THERMAL SETUP DISCUSSION THAT BREAKDOWN WHAT THOSE AMOUNTS COULD
EQUATE TO IN TERMS OF SNOW. AGAIN...INITIAL PRECIP WILL LIKELY START
OUT AS RAIN FOR SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW.

F-GEN SW-NE BANDING IS EVIDENT NW OF THE H85 LOW YET WITH MINOR
INDICATIONS OF STATIC/INERTIAL INSTABILITY PER -EPV. CAN NOT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SW-NE BANDS OF HEAVIER RETURNS PER WSR-88D
RADAR DURING THE EVENT THAT WILL YIELD LOCALLY HIGHER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. ITS LIKELY WE WILL HAVE BETTER HANDLE IN
ANALYZING SUCH OUTCOMES WHEN NEAR-TERM HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
BECOMES AVAILABLE.

THERMAL SETUP / SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...

IF A COASTAL FRONT SETUP EMERGES BENEATH NEAR-ISOTHERMAL PROFILES
AROUND -5C UP TO H7 THEN WOULD EXPECT SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS RANGING
FROM 10:1 TO 15:1 AS SREF METEOGRAMS SUGGEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR...
WITH COASTAL RAINS.

QUITE A RANGE THAT HAS SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
CHALLENGES OF SNOWFALL RATES DURING THE TIME OF DAY /LIKELY WILL SEE
DIFFICULTY IN ACCUMULATING SNOWS DURING THE DAY WITH MARGINALLY COLD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES/...ALSO WET-BULBING TO EQUILIBRIUM WITHIN THE
FIRST 1 KFT ABOVE THE SURFACE...AND WHERE WE WILL EFFECTIVELY WET-
BULB AND/OR WHERE AREAS ARE OVERCOME BY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES.

SO IN ADDITION TO THE INITIAL START/CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...SPEED OF
THE SYSTEM AND IMPACTS TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...AND RANGE OF SNOW-
TO-LIQUID RATIOS...IT IS AN INCREDIBLY HUGE CHALLENGE TO NAIL DOWN
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. ONE KEY TO THIS ENTIRE FORECAST IS THE TRACK OF
THE H85 LOW ALONG WITH H925 TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -2C.

THE DIVIDING FREEZING LINE IS VARIED AMONG PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS
BUT NARROWING DOWN IN VICINITY OF THE AREA BETWEEN THE CT I-395 TO
THE I-90/I-290/I-495 MA CORRIDOR TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

SO AFTER PULLING OUT ALL MY HAIR...INTANGIBLES NOTED ABOVE MAKE THE
SNOWFALL FORECAST TEDIOUS. FEEL DURING THE DAY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL OCCUR AT 32-DEGREES OR BELOW WITH SNOW OCCURRING AT 36-DEGREES
OR LOWER. THIS LOWERED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE PRIOR SHIFT. IN
COLLABORATION WITH WPC...BROAD AREA OF 6+ INCHES WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA W OF NW MA TO NW RI ENCOMPASSING ALL OF CT EXCEPT COASTAL
COMMUNITIES. AMOUNTS AROUND 8-10 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

CONTINUED THINKING THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE WIGGLE ROOM OF THE RAIN-
SNOW BAND DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL PROFILES IN THE FORECAST.
EXPECT CHANGES WITHIN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE GRADIENT ADVERTISED
AROUND THE AREA IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

WINDS...

CONSISTENT NE-FLOW OVER E MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BUT DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG THE
STORM ACTUALLY GETS...WHICH AGAIN IS UNCERTAIN. WIND ADVISORY HEAD-
LINES MAY BE NEEDED...BUT IF THEY ARE WOULD EXPECT THAT IT WOULD BE
ON THE LOW-END OF CRITERIA WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH.

COASTAL FLOODING...

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. ANTICIPATING A SHORT-RESIDENCY TIME OF THE STORM...PERHAPS
A MINOR SURGE AND MAYBE SOME SPLASHOVER IF THE NE-WINDS DISCUSSED
ABOVE VERIFY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
WILL ROTATE AROUND BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER EASTERN STATES. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS FROM TIME TO TIME. WE
SHOULD SEE BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES SUN AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
NEXT MON. MAY SEE FEW SHOWERS WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

0Z UPDATE...

COLD FRONT /UNV-SYR-MSS/ SWEEPS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AROUND 9Z.
EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS LOWEST ALONG THE S-SHORELINE
WITH IFR-VLIFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG WITH GUSTY SW-WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AROUND 25-30 KTS INITIALLY GRADUALLY RELAXING. THE BREEZY
FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE MAJORITY OF FOG AWAY.

IMPROVING VFR THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND INTO THE DAY WITH
CONTINUED W/SW WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SPECIFIC TIMING AS TO
IMPROVEMENT OVER THE TERMINAL IS NOT ENTIRELY CERTAIN.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
WITH CIGS LIFTING TOWARDS 8Z. MAY LIFT FASTER THAN FORECAST.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION SNOWS OVER INTERIOR
TERMINALS IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. +SN POSSIBLE.
AROUND 40 KT NE-WINDS ACROSS E MA / CAPE COD / ISLANDS...ALONG
WITH +RA. MIX OF IFR-VLIFR CONDITIONS.

FRI...VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

7 PM UPDATE...

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 TO
30 KTS. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THE WATERS TOWARDS TUESDAY
MORNING SWITCHING THE WINDS TO A MORE SW. WILL GRADUALLY DROP THE
GALES CONVERTING TO SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORIES. SEAS REMAINING CHOPPY.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
YET WITH WEAK CAA ALOFT EXPECT GUSTS TO REMAIN UP TO 20-25 KTS.
SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO RESPONSE. SO SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED PASSING NE AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF
NANTUCKET MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. LIKELY NE GALES OVER E MA / CAPE COD /
ISLANDS...AND ALL WATERS. HEAVY RAIN LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST ON OUTER WATERS DUE TO 25KT GUSTS
AND 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ002>006-008>012-026.
NH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR RIZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ232>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-255-
     256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL/JWD
MARINE...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL/JWD




000
FXUS61 KBOX 242045
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
345 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A WET AND MILD DAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A QUIET AND MILD TUESDAY WITH
SOME GUSTY SW WINDS. STORM SYSTEM ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...YET TRACK AND EFFECTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN. GRADUALLY
TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

4 PM UPDATE...

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS SE MASS THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS STILL FAIRLY SATURATED AND WE
HAVE DESCENT LIFT FROM THE LOW LEVEL JET. OTHERWISE MILD AIR WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS WELL AS THE GUSTY WINDS.

TONIGHT...

WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT STILL A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SO LOW CLOUDS AND VSBYS
ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. AS THE FRONT
PASSES AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP AS UPPER LEVELS
ARE FAIRLY DRY. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT AS DRY
AIR BEGINS TO PUNCH THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY MILD AS
IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE COOLER AIR TO ARRIVE. ALSO
ANTICIPATE GUSTY SW WINDS...NEAR 15-20 MPH...WHICH WILL KEEP THE
TEMPS FROM RADIATING OUT OVERNIGHT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

TOMORROW...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE IN ON TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR A QUIET
WEATHER DAY. STILL A DESCENT JET ALOFT SO WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTY
WINDS AROUND 15-25 MPH DURING THE DAY. CAA WILL BEGIN TO POOL IN SO
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S...STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

TUESDAY NIGHT UP TO THURSDAY MORNING...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - NOR`EASTER WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
 - SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WHICH WILL DISRUPT TRAVEL
 - PLOWABLE SNOWS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
 - POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND /CAPE COD - ISLANDS/
 - STRONG NE-WINDS ACROSS E MA / CAPE COD / ISLANDS

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

OVERVIEW...

INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NARROWING IN ON A FOCUS OF A STORM TRACK
AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. BUT IT CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO
RESOLVE SPECIFIC DETAILS ACROSS THE REGION. AGAIN...WE REALLY MAY
NOT KNOW THE TRUE OUTCOMES TILL JUST A DAY OR TWO PRIOR.

WEIGHED PREFERENCE UPON THE 24.15Z SREF / 24.12Z GFS ... AND NOW THE
24.12Z ECMWF HAS FINALLY COME ABOARD...HOORAY! NOW WITH A CONSISTENT
STORM-TRACK...IMPACTS BEGIN WEDNESDAY MORNING...INCREASING INTO THE
EVENING WITH THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE STORM
WINDING DOWN THURSDAY MORNING.

SYNOPTICALLY...

BASED ON A PREFERRED MODEL CONSENSUS ABOVE: LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES
FROM THE GULF TUESDAY NE ACROSS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET
AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. ACCOMPANYING H85 LOW PASSES NE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE CAPE COD CANAL TO NW OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK.

DURING WEDNESDAY...BAROCLINIC LEAF / OVER-RUNNING PATTERN OF BROAD-
SCALE ASCENT YIELDS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING DYNAMICALLY COOLING WITH
TIME. WITH SURFACE INTERIOR N-FLOW WITH COASTAL NE-FLOW...AND DRIER
AIR N/W...AM EXPECTING WETBULBING TOWARDS THE DEWPOINT TO AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK THE DIVISION OF WHICH MAY BE ALONG A POSSIBLE COASTAL
FRONT SETUP IMMEDIATELY N/W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. EXPECT INITIAL
RAINS FOR INTERIOR LOCALES CHANGING OVER TO SNOW THROUGH THE DAY...
AS TO THE TIMING OF THAT TRANSITION REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INTENSIFYING LOW SWEEPS NE AROUND THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. WITH A PROGRESSIVE FLOW-PATTERN /+NAO/ AND
ABSENCE OF A CLOSED-LOW ABOVE H85 /MORE EMPHASIS OF AN ANTI-CYCLONIC
BRANCH OF THE WARM CONVEYER BELT/...WITH LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG POLAR-LOW HOLDS ARCTIC AIR
REARWARD ACROSS C-CANADA /+AO/...EXPECTING THERMAL PROFILES AROUND
THE FREEZING MARK OVER INTERIOR S NEW ENGLAND...WHILE MILD OVER THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WITH CONTINUED THINKING OF MAINTAINED COASTAL-FRONT
SETUP PRIOR TO STORM PASSAGE.

PRECIPITATION OUTCOMES...

A FRONT-END THUMP IS ANTICIPATED WITH SLANTWISE FORCING PER FRONTO-
GENESIS NW OF H85 LOW EXTENDED E...ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF WEAK
TROWALING TOWARD THE NW-QUADRANT OF THE H85 LOW. BENEATH ENHANCED
ASCENT PER MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL-JET...STRONG
DEEP-LAYER LIFT THROUGH MOIST DENDRITIC ZONES SHOULD YIELD A NW-SE
PRECIPITATION GRADIENT ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP
IMMEDIATELY NW OF THE SURFACE LOW WHICH AGAIN SWEEPS NE AROUND THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK.

COULD BE TALKING STORM-TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND 1.5-2.0
INCHES FOR SE NEW ENGLAND WITH LESSENING AMOUNTS N/W WITH UP TO
AROUND 0.75-INCHES FOR NW MA AND SW NH. SEE DETAILS BELOW IN THE
THERMAL SETUP DISCUSSION THAT BREAKDOWN WHAT THOSE AMOUNTS COULD
EQUATE TO IN TERMS OF SNOW. AGAIN...INITIAL PRECIP WILL LIKELY START
OUT AS RAIN FOR SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW.

F-GEN SW-NE BANDING IS EVIDENT NW OF THE H85 LOW YET WITH MINOR
INDICATIONS OF STATIC/INERTIAL INSTABILITY PER -EPV. CAN NOT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SW-NE BANDS OF HEAVIER RETURNS PER WSR-88D
RADAR DURING THE EVENT THAT WILL YIELD LOCALLY HIGHER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. ITS LIKELY WE WILL HAVE BETTER HANDLE IN
ANALYZING SUCH OUTCOMES WHEN NEAR-TERM HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
BECOMES AVAILABLE.

THERMAL SETUP / SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...

IF A COASTAL FRONT SETUP EMERGES BENEATH NEAR-ISOTHERMAL PROFILES
AROUND -5C UP TO H7 THEN WOULD EXPECT SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS RANGING
FROM 10:1 TO 15:1 AS SREF METEOGRAMS SUGGEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR...
WITH COASTAL RAINS.

QUITE A RANGE THAT HAS SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
CHALLENGES OF SNOWFALL RATES DURING THE TIME OF DAY /LIKELY WILL SEE
DIFFICULTY IN ACCUMULATING SNOWS DURING THE DAY WITH MARGINALLY COLD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES/...ALSO WET-BULBING TO EQUILIBRIUM WITHIN THE
FIRST 1 KFT ABOVE THE SURFACE...AND WHERE WE WILL EFFECTIVELY WET-
BULB AND/OR WHERE AREAS ARE OVERCOME BY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES.

SO IN ADDITION TO THE INITIAL START/CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...SPEED OF
THE SYSTEM AND IMPACTS TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...AND RANGE OF SNOW-
TO-LIQUID RATIOS...IT IS AN INCREDIBLY HUGE CHALLENGE TO NAIL DOWN
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. ONE KEY TO THIS ENTIRE FORECAST IS THE TRACK OF
THE H85 LOW ALONG WITH H925 TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -2C.

THE DIVIDING FREEZING LINE IS VARIED AMONG PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS
BUT NARROWING DOWN IN VICINITY OF THE AREA BETWEEN THE CT I-395 TO
THE I-90/I-290/I-495 MA CORRIDOR TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

SO AFTER PULLING OUT ALL MY HAIR...INTANGIBLES NOTED ABOVE MAKE THE
SNOWFALL FORECAST TEDIOUS. FEEL DURING THE DAY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL OCCUR AT 32-DEGREES OR BELOW WITH SNOW OCCURRING AT 36-DEGREES
OR LOWER. THIS LOWERED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE PRIOR SHIFT. IN
COLLABORATION WITH WPC...BROAD AREA OF 6+ INCHES WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA W OF NW MA TO NW RI ENCOMPASSING ALL OF CT EXCEPT COASTAL
COMMUNITIES. AMOUNTS AROUND 8-10 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

CONTINUED THINKING THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE WIGGLE ROOM OF THE RAIN-
SNOW BAND DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL PROFILES IN THE FORECAST.
EXPECT CHANGES WITHIN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE GRADIENT ADVERTISED
AROUND THE AREA IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

WINDS...

CONSISTENT NE-FLOW OVER E MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BUT DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG THE
STORM ACTUALLY GETS...WHICH AGAIN IS UNCERTAIN. WIND ADVISORY HEAD-
LINES MAY BE NEEDED...BUT IF THEY ARE WOULD EXPECT THAT IT WOULD BE
ON THE LOW-END OF CRITERIA WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH.

COASTAL FLOODING...

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. ANTICIPATING A SHORT-RESIDENCY TIME OF THE STORM...PERHAPS
A MINOR SURGE AND MAYBE SOME SPLASHOVER IF THE NE-WINDS DISCUSSED
ABOVE VERIFY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
WILL ROTATE AROUND BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER EASTERN STATES. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS FROM TIME TO TIME. WE
SHOULD SEE BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES SUN AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
NEXT MON. MAY SEE FEW SHOWERS WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BEFORE 00Z...A FEW ISO SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE MVFR OUT WEST AND IFR OUT EAST.

TONIGHT...WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS TONIGHT.
EXPECT MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE
EVENING ACROSS W AND N TERMINALS. MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL LINGER FOR
SE TERMINALS DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS.
FRONT PASSES NEAR 09Z SO IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AFTERWARDS. SW
WIND GUSTS 15-25 KTS OVERNIGHT...SHOULD KEEP FOG AWAY.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SW
WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF...UNCERTAIN ON TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF...UNCERTAIN ON TIMING.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION SNOWS OVER INTERIOR
TERMINALS IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. +SN POSSIBLE.
AROUND 40 KT NE-WINDS ACROSS E MA / CAPE COD / ISLANDS...ALONG
WITH +RA. MIX OF IFR-VLIFR CONDITIONS.

FRI...VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 TO
30KTS. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS SWITCHING THE WINDS TO A MORE SW
WINDS. HAVE CONVERTED MOST GALES TO SCA EXCEPT ACROSS EASTERN
COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL ALSO BE QUITE CHOPPY.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
YET WITH WEAK CAA ALOFT EXPECT GUSTS TO REMAIN UP TO 20-25 KTS.
SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO RESPONSE. SO SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED PASSING NE AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF
NANTUCKET MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. LIKELY NE GALES OVER E MA / CAPE COD /
ISLANDS...AND ALL WATERS. HEAVY RAIN LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST ON OUTER WATERS DUE TO 25KT GUSTS
AND 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ002>006-008>012-026.
NH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR RIZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ232>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-255-
     256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL/JWD
MARINE...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL/JWD




000
FXUS61 KBOX 242045
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
345 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A WET AND MILD DAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A QUIET AND MILD TUESDAY WITH
SOME GUSTY SW WINDS. STORM SYSTEM ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...YET TRACK AND EFFECTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN. GRADUALLY
TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

4 PM UPDATE...

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS SE MASS THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS STILL FAIRLY SATURATED AND WE
HAVE DESCENT LIFT FROM THE LOW LEVEL JET. OTHERWISE MILD AIR WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS WELL AS THE GUSTY WINDS.

TONIGHT...

WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT STILL A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SO LOW CLOUDS AND VSBYS
ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. AS THE FRONT
PASSES AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP AS UPPER LEVELS
ARE FAIRLY DRY. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT AS DRY
AIR BEGINS TO PUNCH THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY MILD AS
IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE COOLER AIR TO ARRIVE. ALSO
ANTICIPATE GUSTY SW WINDS...NEAR 15-20 MPH...WHICH WILL KEEP THE
TEMPS FROM RADIATING OUT OVERNIGHT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

TOMORROW...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE IN ON TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR A QUIET
WEATHER DAY. STILL A DESCENT JET ALOFT SO WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTY
WINDS AROUND 15-25 MPH DURING THE DAY. CAA WILL BEGIN TO POOL IN SO
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S...STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

TUESDAY NIGHT UP TO THURSDAY MORNING...

*/ HIGHLIGHTS...

 - NOR`EASTER WILL IMPACT NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
 - SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WHICH WILL DISRUPT TRAVEL
 - PLOWABLE SNOWS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
 - POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND /CAPE COD - ISLANDS/
 - STRONG NE-WINDS ACROSS E MA / CAPE COD / ISLANDS

*/ OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...

OVERVIEW...

INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NARROWING IN ON A FOCUS OF A STORM TRACK
AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. BUT IT CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO
RESOLVE SPECIFIC DETAILS ACROSS THE REGION. AGAIN...WE REALLY MAY
NOT KNOW THE TRUE OUTCOMES TILL JUST A DAY OR TWO PRIOR.

WEIGHED PREFERENCE UPON THE 24.15Z SREF / 24.12Z GFS ... AND NOW THE
24.12Z ECMWF HAS FINALLY COME ABOARD...HOORAY! NOW WITH A CONSISTENT
STORM-TRACK...IMPACTS BEGIN WEDNESDAY MORNING...INCREASING INTO THE
EVENING WITH THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE STORM
WINDING DOWN THURSDAY MORNING.

SYNOPTICALLY...

BASED ON A PREFERRED MODEL CONSENSUS ABOVE: LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES
FROM THE GULF TUESDAY NE ACROSS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET
AROUND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. ACCOMPANYING H85 LOW PASSES NE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE CAPE COD CANAL TO NW OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK.

DURING WEDNESDAY...BAROCLINIC LEAF / OVER-RUNNING PATTERN OF BROAD-
SCALE ASCENT YIELDS TOP-DOWN MOISTENING DYNAMICALLY COOLING WITH
TIME. WITH SURFACE INTERIOR N-FLOW WITH COASTAL NE-FLOW...AND DRIER
AIR N/W...AM EXPECTING WETBULBING TOWARDS THE DEWPOINT TO AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK THE DIVISION OF WHICH MAY BE ALONG A POSSIBLE COASTAL
FRONT SETUP IMMEDIATELY N/W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. EXPECT INITIAL
RAINS FOR INTERIOR LOCALES CHANGING OVER TO SNOW THROUGH THE DAY...
AS TO THE TIMING OF THAT TRANSITION REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INTENSIFYING LOW SWEEPS NE AROUND THE 40N/70W
BENCHMARK S OF NANTUCKET. WITH A PROGRESSIVE FLOW-PATTERN /+NAO/ AND
ABSENCE OF A CLOSED-LOW ABOVE H85 /MORE EMPHASIS OF AN ANTI-CYCLONIC
BRANCH OF THE WARM CONVEYER BELT/...WITH LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG POLAR-LOW HOLDS ARCTIC AIR
REARWARD ACROSS C-CANADA /+AO/...EXPECTING THERMAL PROFILES AROUND
THE FREEZING MARK OVER INTERIOR S NEW ENGLAND...WHILE MILD OVER THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WITH CONTINUED THINKING OF MAINTAINED COASTAL-FRONT
SETUP PRIOR TO STORM PASSAGE.

PRECIPITATION OUTCOMES...

A FRONT-END THUMP IS ANTICIPATED WITH SLANTWISE FORCING PER FRONTO-
GENESIS NW OF H85 LOW EXTENDED E...ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF WEAK
TROWALING TOWARD THE NW-QUADRANT OF THE H85 LOW. BENEATH ENHANCED
ASCENT PER MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL-JET...STRONG
DEEP-LAYER LIFT THROUGH MOIST DENDRITIC ZONES SHOULD YIELD A NW-SE
PRECIPITATION GRADIENT ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP
IMMEDIATELY NW OF THE SURFACE LOW WHICH AGAIN SWEEPS NE AROUND THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK.

COULD BE TALKING STORM-TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND 1.5-2.0
INCHES FOR SE NEW ENGLAND WITH LESSENING AMOUNTS N/W WITH UP TO
AROUND 0.75-INCHES FOR NW MA AND SW NH. SEE DETAILS BELOW IN THE
THERMAL SETUP DISCUSSION THAT BREAKDOWN WHAT THOSE AMOUNTS COULD
EQUATE TO IN TERMS OF SNOW. AGAIN...INITIAL PRECIP WILL LIKELY START
OUT AS RAIN FOR SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW.

F-GEN SW-NE BANDING IS EVIDENT NW OF THE H85 LOW YET WITH MINOR
INDICATIONS OF STATIC/INERTIAL INSTABILITY PER -EPV. CAN NOT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SW-NE BANDS OF HEAVIER RETURNS PER WSR-88D
RADAR DURING THE EVENT THAT WILL YIELD LOCALLY HIGHER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. ITS LIKELY WE WILL HAVE BETTER HANDLE IN
ANALYZING SUCH OUTCOMES WHEN NEAR-TERM HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
BECOMES AVAILABLE.

THERMAL SETUP / SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...

IF A COASTAL FRONT SETUP EMERGES BENEATH NEAR-ISOTHERMAL PROFILES
AROUND -5C UP TO H7 THEN WOULD EXPECT SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS RANGING
FROM 10:1 TO 15:1 AS SREF METEOGRAMS SUGGEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR...
WITH COASTAL RAINS.

QUITE A RANGE THAT HAS SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
CHALLENGES OF SNOWFALL RATES DURING THE TIME OF DAY /LIKELY WILL SEE
DIFFICULTY IN ACCUMULATING SNOWS DURING THE DAY WITH MARGINALLY COLD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES/...ALSO WET-BULBING TO EQUILIBRIUM WITHIN THE
FIRST 1 KFT ABOVE THE SURFACE...AND WHERE WE WILL EFFECTIVELY WET-
BULB AND/OR WHERE AREAS ARE OVERCOME BY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES.

SO IN ADDITION TO THE INITIAL START/CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...SPEED OF
THE SYSTEM AND IMPACTS TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...AND RANGE OF SNOW-
TO-LIQUID RATIOS...IT IS AN INCREDIBLY HUGE CHALLENGE TO NAIL DOWN
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. ONE KEY TO THIS ENTIRE FORECAST IS THE TRACK OF
THE H85 LOW ALONG WITH H925 TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -2C.

THE DIVIDING FREEZING LINE IS VARIED AMONG PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTIONS
BUT NARROWING DOWN IN VICINITY OF THE AREA BETWEEN THE CT I-395 TO
THE I-90/I-290/I-495 MA CORRIDOR TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

SO AFTER PULLING OUT ALL MY HAIR...INTANGIBLES NOTED ABOVE MAKE THE
SNOWFALL FORECAST TEDIOUS. FEEL DURING THE DAY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL OCCUR AT 32-DEGREES OR BELOW WITH SNOW OCCURRING AT 36-DEGREES
OR LOWER. THIS LOWERED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE PRIOR SHIFT. IN
COLLABORATION WITH WPC...BROAD AREA OF 6+ INCHES WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA W OF NW MA TO NW RI ENCOMPASSING ALL OF CT EXCEPT COASTAL
COMMUNITIES. AMOUNTS AROUND 8-10 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

CONTINUED THINKING THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE WIGGLE ROOM OF THE RAIN-
SNOW BAND DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL PROFILES IN THE FORECAST.
EXPECT CHANGES WITHIN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE GRADIENT ADVERTISED
AROUND THE AREA IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

WINDS...

CONSISTENT NE-FLOW OVER E MA INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BUT DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG THE
STORM ACTUALLY GETS...WHICH AGAIN IS UNCERTAIN. WIND ADVISORY HEAD-
LINES MAY BE NEEDED...BUT IF THEY ARE WOULD EXPECT THAT IT WOULD BE
ON THE LOW-END OF CRITERIA WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH.

COASTAL FLOODING...

FORECAST TIDES OF 10 FEET EXPECTED AT BOSTON SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY. ANTICIPATING A SHORT-RESIDENCY TIME OF THE STORM...PERHAPS
A MINOR SURGE AND MAYBE SOME SPLASHOVER IF THE NE-WINDS DISCUSSED
ABOVE VERIFY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
WILL ROTATE AROUND BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER EASTERN STATES. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS FROM TIME TO TIME. WE
SHOULD SEE BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES SUN AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
NEXT MON. MAY SEE FEW SHOWERS WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING...BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BEFORE 00Z...A FEW ISO SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE MVFR OUT WEST AND IFR OUT EAST.

TONIGHT...WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS TONIGHT.
EXPECT MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE
EVENING ACROSS W AND N TERMINALS. MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL LINGER FOR
SE TERMINALS DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS.
FRONT PASSES NEAR 09Z SO IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AFTERWARDS. SW
WIND GUSTS 15-25 KTS OVERNIGHT...SHOULD KEEP FOG AWAY.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SW
WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF...UNCERTAIN ON TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF...UNCERTAIN ON TIMING.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION SNOWS OVER INTERIOR
TERMINALS IMMEDIATELY W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. +SN POSSIBLE.
AROUND 40 KT NE-WINDS ACROSS E MA / CAPE COD / ISLANDS...ALONG
WITH +RA. MIX OF IFR-VLIFR CONDITIONS.

FRI...VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 TO
30KTS. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS SWITCHING THE WINDS TO A MORE SW
WINDS. HAVE CONVERTED MOST GALES TO SCA EXCEPT ACROSS EASTERN
COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL ALSO BE QUITE CHOPPY.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
YET WITH WEAK CAA ALOFT EXPECT GUSTS TO REMAIN UP TO 20-25 KTS.
SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO RESPONSE. SO SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOR`EASTER ANTICIPATED PASSING NE AROUND THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK S OF
NANTUCKET MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. LIKELY NE GALES OVER E MA / CAPE COD /
ISLANDS...AND ALL WATERS. HEAVY RAIN LENDING TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST ON OUTER WATERS DUE TO 25KT GUSTS
AND 5 FT SEAS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ002>006-008>012-026.
NH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR RIZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ232>234-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-255-
     256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL/JWD
MARINE...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL/JWD



000
FXUS61 KBOX 241809
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
109 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON. QUIET AND MILD
TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTY SW WINDS. STORM SYSTEM ANTICIPATED
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...YET TRACK AND EFFECTS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

100 PM UPDATE...

DRY SLOT HAS MOVED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WARM
FRONT HAS LIFTED WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER WE ARE STILL
SOCKED IN WITH CLOUD COVER DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ. IN FACE THERE IS
ENOUGH LIFT THAT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SE
PORTION OF THE REGION...WHERE THE STRONGEST 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS CO-LOCATED. AMOUNTS IN THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN AROUND
0.05 INCHES SO ANY ADDITIONAL NUISANCES FLOODING ISSUES SEEM LOW
AT THIS TIME. ANTICIPATE THESE SHOWERS TO BEGIN TO PULL OFFSHORE
AROUND 21Z THIS AFTERNOON.

MIXING ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUES AS GUSTS ARE AROUND 15-25
MPH...STRONG ALONG THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL
ALSO SEE THE STRONGER GUSTS AS THE 925 MB LLJ IS STILL AROUND 40
KTS. HAVE NOTICED A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...IF
CLOUDS DO BREAK OUT THEN TEMPERATURES WILL RISE QUICKLY AS 925 MB
TEMPS REACH 13-16C. SO AT THE SURFACE A ROGUE 70F REPORT IS
POSSIBLE IS THE CLOUDS BREAK OUT. HOWEVER LOOKING AT THE CROSS
SECTION APPEARS THE LOW LEVELS ARE VERY MOIST SO CONTINUED WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION SO CANT RULE OUT A
FEW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE PARTIAL MOVES IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. IT WILL
BE AN UNSEASONABLY MILD MIGHT AS LOW LEVEL COOLING DOESNT MOVE
INTO THE REGION TIL LATE TONIGHT. MINS WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT 40S FAR W WHERE COOLING ARRIVES
EARLIER. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
* PLOWABLE SNOW STORM LIKELY WEDNESDAY...EXACT TRACK AND LOCATION OF
  RAIN/SNOW LINE STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN
* COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TOWARDS THE WEEKEND
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANOTHER STORM LATE IN THE WEEKEND

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER
STORM WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING.  UNFORTUNATELY...MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING WITH THIS STORM...PARTICULARLY THE TRACK OF THE LOW WHICH
WILL AFFECT EVERYTHING FROM AMOUNT AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION TO
TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS...WHICH WILL IN TURN AFFECT THE TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION.  THE ENSEMBLES HAVE THE LOW TRACKING ANYWHERE FROM
OVER PENNSYLVANIA TO OUT TO SEA WITH THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN.  THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO BE
TRACKING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND /AT THE WESTERN END OF THE
ENVELOPE/ TO JUST OUTSIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK /AT THE EASTERN END OF
THE ENVELOPE.  OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME FRAME THE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH MORE DISCREPANCIES SEEN WITH
THE WEEKEND FORECAST.  THE GFS IS FORECASTING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS IS
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT THOUGH.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER RELATIVELY WARM DAY EXPECTED THOUGH IT WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.  LOW PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL MOVE INTO THE
MARITIMES PULLING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A
SOUTHWESTERLY 40 TO 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET WITH DECENT MIXING WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING...AS STATED ABOVE...THIS WILL
BE THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST AND IS ALSO THE MOST UNCERTAIN.  LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE COAST MOST LIKELY MOVING ANYWHERE FROM
DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO JUST OUTSIDE THE 40/70
BENCHMARK.  A TRACK OF THIS SORT IS LIKELY TO BRING A PLOWABLE SNOW
TO AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK...AM CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN
SIX INCHES OF SNOW FALLING ACROSS WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THESE AREAS.
ESPECIALLY SINCE THIS IS THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR AND
LIKELY TO AFFECT MANY.

THE ECMWF IS THE FARTHEST WEST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND BRINGS
AT LEAST THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE WESTERN AREAS.
WHILE THE GFS IS FARTHER TO THE EAST...IT TOO BRINGS AT LEAST THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AND HAS A COLDER
THERMAL PROFILE. THIS WOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SIX INCHES OF SNOW AT
LEAST OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AND LIKELY FARTHER EAST.  THIS IS
DEFINITELY A STORM TO WATCH.

WHILE THE LOCATION OF THE RAIN/SNOW LINE CANNOT BE DETERMINED AT
THIS POINT...APPEARS LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE SOMEWHERE NEAR OR WEST
OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.  A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THANKSGIVING MORNING BEFORE THE LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT QUIET
WEATHER.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LESS CERTAINTY IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ALLOWING A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO AFFECT A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BEFORE 00Z...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON...KEEPING MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA. SW GUSTS TO
25-35 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. LLWS LIKELY AS 2K FT WINDS 45-55
KT. SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT BY 21Z.

TONIGHT...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE
EVENING ACROSS W AND N TERMINALS. ANTICIPATE CONTINUING MVFR ISO
IFR CIGS FOR SE TERMINALS DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE
LOW LEVELS. SW WIND GUSTS 15-25 KT OVERNIGHT...SHOULD KEEP FOG
AWAY.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SW
WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF IFR/MVFR CIGS
AND GUSTY S WINDS. LLWS LIKELY TODAY WITH 50 KT AT 2K FT. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TONIGHTS TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR TODAY. LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON TONIGHTS TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

WEDNESDAY INTO THU AM...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
SNOW/RAIN.  GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF SNOW...INCLUDING HEAVY SNOW...IS
WEST OF WORCESTER THROUGH WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT.

THU PM THROUGH FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
TO THE WATERS TODAY. WHILE INVERSION IS PRESENT WHICH WILL LIMIT
STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN STILL THINK GUSTS TO 35-40 KT
POSSIBLE SO GALE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE. SW GALES WILL LINGER INTO
THE EVENING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. REDUCED VSBYS THIS MORNING IN RAIN AND FOG.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST SCA WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS...THEN WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE
COASTAL WATERS.  NORTHWESTERLY GALES LIKELY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS. WESTERLY WINDS GUST TO 25 KTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. WITH SOUTHERLY GALES EXPECTED...A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 TO 2
FT IS LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH HIGHEST SURGE EXPECTED IN
NARRAGANSETT BAY. THIS MAY BRING A FEW LOCATIONS TO MINOR FLOOD.
THE MAIN THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ALONG
NARRAGANSETT BAY AND WESTPORT HARBOR DUE TO SOUTHERLY FETCH.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTH COAST. NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ018>024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ002>004-008>012-026.
NH...NONE.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ003>008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...DUNTEN/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 241809
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
109 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON. QUIET AND MILD
TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTY SW WINDS. STORM SYSTEM ANTICIPATED
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...YET TRACK AND EFFECTS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

100 PM UPDATE...

DRY SLOT HAS MOVED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WARM
FRONT HAS LIFTED WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER WE ARE STILL
SOCKED IN WITH CLOUD COVER DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ. IN FACE THERE IS
ENOUGH LIFT THAT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SE
PORTION OF THE REGION...WHERE THE STRONGEST 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS CO-LOCATED. AMOUNTS IN THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN AROUND
0.05 INCHES SO ANY ADDITIONAL NUISANCES FLOODING ISSUES SEEM LOW
AT THIS TIME. ANTICIPATE THESE SHOWERS TO BEGIN TO PULL OFFSHORE
AROUND 21Z THIS AFTERNOON.

MIXING ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUES AS GUSTS ARE AROUND 15-25
MPH...STRONG ALONG THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL
ALSO SEE THE STRONGER GUSTS AS THE 925 MB LLJ IS STILL AROUND 40
KTS. HAVE NOTICED A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...IF
CLOUDS DO BREAK OUT THEN TEMPERATURES WILL RISE QUICKLY AS 925 MB
TEMPS REACH 13-16C. SO AT THE SURFACE A ROGUE 70F REPORT IS
POSSIBLE IS THE CLOUDS BREAK OUT. HOWEVER LOOKING AT THE CROSS
SECTION APPEARS THE LOW LEVELS ARE VERY MOIST SO CONTINUED WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION SO CANT RULE OUT A
FEW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE PARTIAL MOVES IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. IT WILL
BE AN UNSEASONABLY MILD MIGHT AS LOW LEVEL COOLING DOESNT MOVE
INTO THE REGION TIL LATE TONIGHT. MINS WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT 40S FAR W WHERE COOLING ARRIVES
EARLIER. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
* PLOWABLE SNOW STORM LIKELY WEDNESDAY...EXACT TRACK AND LOCATION OF
  RAIN/SNOW LINE STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN
* COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TOWARDS THE WEEKEND
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANOTHER STORM LATE IN THE WEEKEND

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER
STORM WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING.  UNFORTUNATELY...MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING WITH THIS STORM...PARTICULARLY THE TRACK OF THE LOW WHICH
WILL AFFECT EVERYTHING FROM AMOUNT AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION TO
TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS...WHICH WILL IN TURN AFFECT THE TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION.  THE ENSEMBLES HAVE THE LOW TRACKING ANYWHERE FROM
OVER PENNSYLVANIA TO OUT TO SEA WITH THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN.  THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO BE
TRACKING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND /AT THE WESTERN END OF THE
ENVELOPE/ TO JUST OUTSIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK /AT THE EASTERN END OF
THE ENVELOPE.  OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME FRAME THE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH MORE DISCREPANCIES SEEN WITH
THE WEEKEND FORECAST.  THE GFS IS FORECASTING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS IS
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT THOUGH.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER RELATIVELY WARM DAY EXPECTED THOUGH IT WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.  LOW PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL MOVE INTO THE
MARITIMES PULLING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A
SOUTHWESTERLY 40 TO 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET WITH DECENT MIXING WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING...AS STATED ABOVE...THIS WILL
BE THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST AND IS ALSO THE MOST UNCERTAIN.  LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE COAST MOST LIKELY MOVING ANYWHERE FROM
DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO JUST OUTSIDE THE 40/70
BENCHMARK.  A TRACK OF THIS SORT IS LIKELY TO BRING A PLOWABLE SNOW
TO AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK...AM CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN
SIX INCHES OF SNOW FALLING ACROSS WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THESE AREAS.
ESPECIALLY SINCE THIS IS THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR AND
LIKELY TO AFFECT MANY.

THE ECMWF IS THE FARTHEST WEST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND BRINGS
AT LEAST THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE WESTERN AREAS.
WHILE THE GFS IS FARTHER TO THE EAST...IT TOO BRINGS AT LEAST THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AND HAS A COLDER
THERMAL PROFILE. THIS WOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SIX INCHES OF SNOW AT
LEAST OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AND LIKELY FARTHER EAST.  THIS IS
DEFINITELY A STORM TO WATCH.

WHILE THE LOCATION OF THE RAIN/SNOW LINE CANNOT BE DETERMINED AT
THIS POINT...APPEARS LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE SOMEWHERE NEAR OR WEST
OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.  A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THANKSGIVING MORNING BEFORE THE LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT QUIET
WEATHER.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LESS CERTAINTY IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ALLOWING A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO AFFECT A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

BEFORE 00Z...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON...KEEPING MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA. SW GUSTS TO
25-35 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. LLWS LIKELY AS 2K FT WINDS 45-55
KT. SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT BY 21Z.

TONIGHT...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE
EVENING ACROSS W AND N TERMINALS. ANTICIPATE CONTINUING MVFR ISO
IFR CIGS FOR SE TERMINALS DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE
LOW LEVELS. SW WIND GUSTS 15-25 KT OVERNIGHT...SHOULD KEEP FOG
AWAY.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SW
WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF IFR/MVFR CIGS
AND GUSTY S WINDS. LLWS LIKELY TODAY WITH 50 KT AT 2K FT. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TONIGHTS TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR TODAY. LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON TONIGHTS TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

WEDNESDAY INTO THU AM...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
SNOW/RAIN.  GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF SNOW...INCLUDING HEAVY SNOW...IS
WEST OF WORCESTER THROUGH WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT.

THU PM THROUGH FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
TO THE WATERS TODAY. WHILE INVERSION IS PRESENT WHICH WILL LIMIT
STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN STILL THINK GUSTS TO 35-40 KT
POSSIBLE SO GALE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE. SW GALES WILL LINGER INTO
THE EVENING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. REDUCED VSBYS THIS MORNING IN RAIN AND FOG.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST SCA WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS...THEN WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE
COASTAL WATERS.  NORTHWESTERLY GALES LIKELY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS. WESTERLY WINDS GUST TO 25 KTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. WITH SOUTHERLY GALES EXPECTED...A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 TO 2
FT IS LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH HIGHEST SURGE EXPECTED IN
NARRAGANSETT BAY. THIS MAY BRING A FEW LOCATIONS TO MINOR FLOOD.
THE MAIN THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ALONG
NARRAGANSETT BAY AND WESTPORT HARBOR DUE TO SOUTHERLY FETCH.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTH COAST. NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ018>024.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ002>004-008>012-026.
NH...NONE.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ003>008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...DUNTEN/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 241535
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1035 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON. QUIET AND MILD
TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTY SW WINDS. STORM SYSTEM ANTICIPATED
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...YET TRACK AND EFFECTS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1030 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS MORNING.
WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION ALLOWING FOR
WARM AIR TO MOVE IN AND TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. ALTHOUGH
BULK OF THE RAIN FROM EARLY THIS MORNING HAS MOVED NORTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION...STILL WILL SEE SCT SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TRANSFER MOVING INTO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR
THESE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO REGENERATE. ANTICIPATE LOW VSBYS AND
CLOUDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THANKS TO A GOOD
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PER CROSS SECTIONS.

DRY SLOT HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS MORNING
ALLOWING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH MAIN BULK OF THE LLJ HAS MOVED OFFSHORE...WILL STILL SEE
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP TO 15-25 MPH ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...HIGHER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON...
DRY SLOT WILL HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDDAY WITH RAINFALL
EXITING THE REGION...BUT PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
WHICH WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. IT WILL BE WINDY AS STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. SW WIND GUSTS 25-35 MPH EXPECTED AND
POSSIBLY UP TO 40 MPH SE NEW ENG. 925 MB TEMPS 13-15C SO IT WILL
BE A RATHER MILD DAY FOR LATE NOVEMBER WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
MID 60S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS. 70 DEGREES WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF WE
COULD GET SOME SUNSHINE BUT THIS DOESNT APPEAR LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION SO CANT RULE OUT A
FEW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE PARTIAL MOVES IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. IT WILL
BE AN UNSEASONABLY MILD MIGHT AS LOW LEVEL COOLING DOESNT MOVE
INTO THE REGION TIL LATE TONIGHT. MINS WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT 40S FAR W WHERE COOLING ARRIVES
EARLIER. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
* PLOWABLE SNOW STORM LIKELY WEDNESDAY...EXACT TRACK AND LOCATION OF
  RAIN/SNOW LINE STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN
* COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TOWARDS THE WEEKEND
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANOTHER STORM LATE IN THE WEEKEND

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER
STORM WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING.  UNFORTUNATELY...MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING WITH THIS STORM...PARTICULARLY THE TRACK OF THE LOW WHICH
WILL AFFECT EVERYTHING FROM AMOUNT AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION TO
TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS...WHICH WILL IN TURN AFFECT THE TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION.  THE ENSEMBLES HAVE THE LOW TRACKING ANYWHERE FROM
OVER PENNSYLVANIA TO OUT TO SEA WITH THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN.  THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO BE
TRACKING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND /AT THE WESTERN END OF THE
ENVELOPE/ TO JUST OUTSIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK /AT THE EASTERN END OF
THE ENVELOPE.  OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME FRAME THE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH MORE DISCREPANCIES SEEN WITH
THE WEEKEND FORECAST.  THE GFS IS FORECASTING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS IS
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT THOUGH.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER RELATIVELY WARM DAY EXPECTED THOUGH IT WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.  LOW PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL MOVE INTO THE
MARITIMES PULLING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A
SOUTHWESTERLY 40 TO 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET WITH DECENT MIXING WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING...AS STATED ABOVE...THIS WILL
BE THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST AND IS ALSO THE MOST UNCERTAIN.  LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE COAST MOST LIKELY MOVING ANYWHERE FROM
DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO JUST OUTSIDE THE 40/70
BENCHMARK.  A TRACK OF THIS SORT IS LIKELY TO BRING A PLOWABLE SNOW
TO AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK...AM CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN
SIX INCHES OF SNOW FALLING ACROSS WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THESE AREAS.
ESPECIALLY SINCE THIS IS THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR AND
LIKELY TO AFFECT MANY.

THE ECMWF IS THE FARTHEST WEST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND BRINGS
AT LEAST THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE WESTERN AREAS.
WHILE THE GFS IS FARTHER TO THE EAST...IT TOO BRINGS AT LEAST THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AND HAS A COLDER
THERMAL PROFILE. THIS WOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SIX INCHES OF SNOW AT
LEAST OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AND LIKELY FARTHER EAST.  THIS IS
DEFINITELY A STORM TO WATCH.

WHILE THE LOCATION OF THE RAIN/SNOW LINE CANNOT BE DETERMINED AT
THIS POINT...APPEARS LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE SOMEWHERE NEAR OR WEST
OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.  A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THANKSGIVING MORNING BEFORE THE LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT QUIET
WEATHER.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LESS CERTAINTY IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ALLOWING A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO AFFECT A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...MVFR/IFR IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. STEADY RAIN EXITS
13-16Z WITH NUMBEROUS SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON...KEEPING
MVFR/IFR CIGS LINGERING. S WIND GUSTS TO 35-40 KT POSSIBLE ACROSS
SE NEW ENG AND ESPECIALLY CAPE/ISLANDS 15-19Z...THEN SW GUSTS TO
25-35 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. LLWS LIKELY AS 2K FT WINDS 45-55
KT.

TONIGHT...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE
EVENING ACROSS W AND N TERMINALS...BUT NOT UNTIL AFT 06Z ACROSS
SE NEW ENG. BLUSTERY SW WIND GUSTS 25-35 KT IN THE EVENING
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE
BUT NOT IN TAF AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH GUSTY S WINDS. LLWS
LIKELY TODAY WITH 50 KT AT 2K FT.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LLWS LIKELY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SW WINDS GUST TO 25KTS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THU AM...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
SNOW/RAIN.  GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF SNOW...INCLUDING HEAVY SNOW...IS
WEST OF WORCESTER THROUGH WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT.

THU PM THROUGH FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
TO THE WATERS TODAY. WHILE INVERSION IS PRESENT WHICH WILL LIMIT
STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN STILL THINK GUSTS TO 35-40 KT
POSSIBLE SO GALE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE. SW GALES WILL LINGER INTO
THE EVENING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. REDUCED VSBYS THIS MORNING IN RAIN AND FOG.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST SCA WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS...THEN WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE
COASTAL WATERS.  NORTHWESTERLY GALES LIKELY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS. WESTERLY WINDS GUST TO 25 KTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. WITH SOUTHERLY GALES EXPECTED...A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 TO 2
FT IS LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH HIGHEST SURGE EXPECTED IN
NARRAGANSETT BAY. THIS MAY BRING A FEW LOCATIONS TO MINOR FLOOD.
THE MAIN THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ALONG
NARRAGANSETT BAY AND WESTPORT HARBOR DUE TO SOUTHERLY FETCH.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTH COAST. NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ018>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MAZ020>022.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ002>004-008>012-026.
NH...NONE.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ003>008.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR RIZ002-
     004>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 241535
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1035 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON. QUIET AND MILD
TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTY SW WINDS. STORM SYSTEM ANTICIPATED
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...YET TRACK AND EFFECTS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1030 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS MORNING.
WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION ALLOWING FOR
WARM AIR TO MOVE IN AND TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. ALTHOUGH
BULK OF THE RAIN FROM EARLY THIS MORNING HAS MOVED NORTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION...STILL WILL SEE SCT SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TRANSFER MOVING INTO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR
THESE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO REGENERATE. ANTICIPATE LOW VSBYS AND
CLOUDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THANKS TO A GOOD
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PER CROSS SECTIONS.

DRY SLOT HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS MORNING
ALLOWING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH MAIN BULK OF THE LLJ HAS MOVED OFFSHORE...WILL STILL SEE
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP TO 15-25 MPH ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...HIGHER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON...
DRY SLOT WILL HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDDAY WITH RAINFALL
EXITING THE REGION...BUT PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
WHICH WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. IT WILL BE WINDY AS STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. SW WIND GUSTS 25-35 MPH EXPECTED AND
POSSIBLY UP TO 40 MPH SE NEW ENG. 925 MB TEMPS 13-15C SO IT WILL
BE A RATHER MILD DAY FOR LATE NOVEMBER WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
MID 60S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS. 70 DEGREES WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF WE
COULD GET SOME SUNSHINE BUT THIS DOESNT APPEAR LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION SO CANT RULE OUT A
FEW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE PARTIAL MOVES IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. IT WILL
BE AN UNSEASONABLY MILD MIGHT AS LOW LEVEL COOLING DOESNT MOVE
INTO THE REGION TIL LATE TONIGHT. MINS WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT 40S FAR W WHERE COOLING ARRIVES
EARLIER. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
* PLOWABLE SNOW STORM LIKELY WEDNESDAY...EXACT TRACK AND LOCATION OF
  RAIN/SNOW LINE STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN
* COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TOWARDS THE WEEKEND
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANOTHER STORM LATE IN THE WEEKEND

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER
STORM WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING.  UNFORTUNATELY...MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING WITH THIS STORM...PARTICULARLY THE TRACK OF THE LOW WHICH
WILL AFFECT EVERYTHING FROM AMOUNT AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION TO
TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS...WHICH WILL IN TURN AFFECT THE TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION.  THE ENSEMBLES HAVE THE LOW TRACKING ANYWHERE FROM
OVER PENNSYLVANIA TO OUT TO SEA WITH THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN.  THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO BE
TRACKING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND /AT THE WESTERN END OF THE
ENVELOPE/ TO JUST OUTSIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK /AT THE EASTERN END OF
THE ENVELOPE.  OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME FRAME THE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH MORE DISCREPANCIES SEEN WITH
THE WEEKEND FORECAST.  THE GFS IS FORECASTING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS IS
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT THOUGH.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER RELATIVELY WARM DAY EXPECTED THOUGH IT WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.  LOW PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL MOVE INTO THE
MARITIMES PULLING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A
SOUTHWESTERLY 40 TO 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET WITH DECENT MIXING WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING...AS STATED ABOVE...THIS WILL
BE THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST AND IS ALSO THE MOST UNCERTAIN.  LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE COAST MOST LIKELY MOVING ANYWHERE FROM
DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO JUST OUTSIDE THE 40/70
BENCHMARK.  A TRACK OF THIS SORT IS LIKELY TO BRING A PLOWABLE SNOW
TO AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK...AM CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN
SIX INCHES OF SNOW FALLING ACROSS WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THESE AREAS.
ESPECIALLY SINCE THIS IS THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR AND
LIKELY TO AFFECT MANY.

THE ECMWF IS THE FARTHEST WEST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND BRINGS
AT LEAST THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE WESTERN AREAS.
WHILE THE GFS IS FARTHER TO THE EAST...IT TOO BRINGS AT LEAST THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AND HAS A COLDER
THERMAL PROFILE. THIS WOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SIX INCHES OF SNOW AT
LEAST OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AND LIKELY FARTHER EAST.  THIS IS
DEFINITELY A STORM TO WATCH.

WHILE THE LOCATION OF THE RAIN/SNOW LINE CANNOT BE DETERMINED AT
THIS POINT...APPEARS LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE SOMEWHERE NEAR OR WEST
OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.  A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THANKSGIVING MORNING BEFORE THE LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT QUIET
WEATHER.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LESS CERTAINTY IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ALLOWING A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO AFFECT A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...MVFR/IFR IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. STEADY RAIN EXITS
13-16Z WITH NUMBEROUS SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON...KEEPING
MVFR/IFR CIGS LINGERING. S WIND GUSTS TO 35-40 KT POSSIBLE ACROSS
SE NEW ENG AND ESPECIALLY CAPE/ISLANDS 15-19Z...THEN SW GUSTS TO
25-35 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. LLWS LIKELY AS 2K FT WINDS 45-55
KT.

TONIGHT...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE
EVENING ACROSS W AND N TERMINALS...BUT NOT UNTIL AFT 06Z ACROSS
SE NEW ENG. BLUSTERY SW WIND GUSTS 25-35 KT IN THE EVENING
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE
BUT NOT IN TAF AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH GUSTY S WINDS. LLWS
LIKELY TODAY WITH 50 KT AT 2K FT.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LLWS LIKELY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SW WINDS GUST TO 25KTS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THU AM...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
SNOW/RAIN.  GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF SNOW...INCLUDING HEAVY SNOW...IS
WEST OF WORCESTER THROUGH WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT.

THU PM THROUGH FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
TO THE WATERS TODAY. WHILE INVERSION IS PRESENT WHICH WILL LIMIT
STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN STILL THINK GUSTS TO 35-40 KT
POSSIBLE SO GALE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE. SW GALES WILL LINGER INTO
THE EVENING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. REDUCED VSBYS THIS MORNING IN RAIN AND FOG.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST SCA WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS...THEN WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE
COASTAL WATERS.  NORTHWESTERLY GALES LIKELY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS. WESTERLY WINDS GUST TO 25 KTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. WITH SOUTHERLY GALES EXPECTED...A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 TO 2
FT IS LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH HIGHEST SURGE EXPECTED IN
NARRAGANSETT BAY. THIS MAY BRING A FEW LOCATIONS TO MINOR FLOOD.
THE MAIN THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ALONG
NARRAGANSETT BAY AND WESTPORT HARBOR DUE TO SOUTHERLY FETCH.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTH COAST. NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ018>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MAZ020>022.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ002>004-008>012-026.
NH...NONE.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ003>008.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR RIZ002-
     004>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 241535
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1035 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON. QUIET AND MILD
TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTY SW WINDS. STORM SYSTEM ANTICIPATED
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...YET TRACK AND EFFECTS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1030 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS MORNING.
WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION ALLOWING FOR
WARM AIR TO MOVE IN AND TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. ALTHOUGH
BULK OF THE RAIN FROM EARLY THIS MORNING HAS MOVED NORTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION...STILL WILL SEE SCT SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TRANSFER MOVING INTO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR
THESE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO REGENERATE. ANTICIPATE LOW VSBYS AND
CLOUDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THANKS TO A GOOD
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PER CROSS SECTIONS.

DRY SLOT HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS MORNING
ALLOWING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH MAIN BULK OF THE LLJ HAS MOVED OFFSHORE...WILL STILL SEE
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP TO 15-25 MPH ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...HIGHER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON...
DRY SLOT WILL HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDDAY WITH RAINFALL
EXITING THE REGION...BUT PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
WHICH WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. IT WILL BE WINDY AS STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. SW WIND GUSTS 25-35 MPH EXPECTED AND
POSSIBLY UP TO 40 MPH SE NEW ENG. 925 MB TEMPS 13-15C SO IT WILL
BE A RATHER MILD DAY FOR LATE NOVEMBER WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
MID 60S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS. 70 DEGREES WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF WE
COULD GET SOME SUNSHINE BUT THIS DOESNT APPEAR LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION SO CANT RULE OUT A
FEW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE PARTIAL MOVES IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. IT WILL
BE AN UNSEASONABLY MILD MIGHT AS LOW LEVEL COOLING DOESNT MOVE
INTO THE REGION TIL LATE TONIGHT. MINS WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT 40S FAR W WHERE COOLING ARRIVES
EARLIER. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
* PLOWABLE SNOW STORM LIKELY WEDNESDAY...EXACT TRACK AND LOCATION OF
  RAIN/SNOW LINE STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN
* COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TOWARDS THE WEEKEND
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANOTHER STORM LATE IN THE WEEKEND

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER
STORM WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING.  UNFORTUNATELY...MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING WITH THIS STORM...PARTICULARLY THE TRACK OF THE LOW WHICH
WILL AFFECT EVERYTHING FROM AMOUNT AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION TO
TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS...WHICH WILL IN TURN AFFECT THE TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION.  THE ENSEMBLES HAVE THE LOW TRACKING ANYWHERE FROM
OVER PENNSYLVANIA TO OUT TO SEA WITH THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN.  THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO BE
TRACKING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND /AT THE WESTERN END OF THE
ENVELOPE/ TO JUST OUTSIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK /AT THE EASTERN END OF
THE ENVELOPE.  OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME FRAME THE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH MORE DISCREPANCIES SEEN WITH
THE WEEKEND FORECAST.  THE GFS IS FORECASTING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS IS
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT THOUGH.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER RELATIVELY WARM DAY EXPECTED THOUGH IT WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.  LOW PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL MOVE INTO THE
MARITIMES PULLING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A
SOUTHWESTERLY 40 TO 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET WITH DECENT MIXING WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING...AS STATED ABOVE...THIS WILL
BE THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST AND IS ALSO THE MOST UNCERTAIN.  LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE COAST MOST LIKELY MOVING ANYWHERE FROM
DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO JUST OUTSIDE THE 40/70
BENCHMARK.  A TRACK OF THIS SORT IS LIKELY TO BRING A PLOWABLE SNOW
TO AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK...AM CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN
SIX INCHES OF SNOW FALLING ACROSS WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THESE AREAS.
ESPECIALLY SINCE THIS IS THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR AND
LIKELY TO AFFECT MANY.

THE ECMWF IS THE FARTHEST WEST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND BRINGS
AT LEAST THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE WESTERN AREAS.
WHILE THE GFS IS FARTHER TO THE EAST...IT TOO BRINGS AT LEAST THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AND HAS A COLDER
THERMAL PROFILE. THIS WOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SIX INCHES OF SNOW AT
LEAST OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AND LIKELY FARTHER EAST.  THIS IS
DEFINITELY A STORM TO WATCH.

WHILE THE LOCATION OF THE RAIN/SNOW LINE CANNOT BE DETERMINED AT
THIS POINT...APPEARS LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE SOMEWHERE NEAR OR WEST
OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.  A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THANKSGIVING MORNING BEFORE THE LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT QUIET
WEATHER.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LESS CERTAINTY IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ALLOWING A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO AFFECT A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...MVFR/IFR IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. STEADY RAIN EXITS
13-16Z WITH NUMBEROUS SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON...KEEPING
MVFR/IFR CIGS LINGERING. S WIND GUSTS TO 35-40 KT POSSIBLE ACROSS
SE NEW ENG AND ESPECIALLY CAPE/ISLANDS 15-19Z...THEN SW GUSTS TO
25-35 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. LLWS LIKELY AS 2K FT WINDS 45-55
KT.

TONIGHT...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE
EVENING ACROSS W AND N TERMINALS...BUT NOT UNTIL AFT 06Z ACROSS
SE NEW ENG. BLUSTERY SW WIND GUSTS 25-35 KT IN THE EVENING
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE
BUT NOT IN TAF AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH GUSTY S WINDS. LLWS
LIKELY TODAY WITH 50 KT AT 2K FT.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LLWS LIKELY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SW WINDS GUST TO 25KTS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THU AM...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
SNOW/RAIN.  GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF SNOW...INCLUDING HEAVY SNOW...IS
WEST OF WORCESTER THROUGH WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT.

THU PM THROUGH FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
TO THE WATERS TODAY. WHILE INVERSION IS PRESENT WHICH WILL LIMIT
STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN STILL THINK GUSTS TO 35-40 KT
POSSIBLE SO GALE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE. SW GALES WILL LINGER INTO
THE EVENING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. REDUCED VSBYS THIS MORNING IN RAIN AND FOG.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST SCA WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS...THEN WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE
COASTAL WATERS.  NORTHWESTERLY GALES LIKELY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS. WESTERLY WINDS GUST TO 25 KTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. WITH SOUTHERLY GALES EXPECTED...A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 TO 2
FT IS LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH HIGHEST SURGE EXPECTED IN
NARRAGANSETT BAY. THIS MAY BRING A FEW LOCATIONS TO MINOR FLOOD.
THE MAIN THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ALONG
NARRAGANSETT BAY AND WESTPORT HARBOR DUE TO SOUTHERLY FETCH.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTH COAST. NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ018>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MAZ020>022.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ002>004-008>012-026.
NH...NONE.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ003>008.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR RIZ002-
     004>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 241535
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1035 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON. QUIET AND MILD
TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTY SW WINDS. STORM SYSTEM ANTICIPATED
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...YET TRACK AND EFFECTS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN. GRADUALLY TURNING COLDER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1030 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS MORNING.
WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION ALLOWING FOR
WARM AIR TO MOVE IN AND TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. ALTHOUGH
BULK OF THE RAIN FROM EARLY THIS MORNING HAS MOVED NORTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION...STILL WILL SEE SCT SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TRANSFER MOVING INTO THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR
THESE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO REGENERATE. ANTICIPATE LOW VSBYS AND
CLOUDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THANKS TO A GOOD
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PER CROSS SECTIONS.

DRY SLOT HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS MORNING
ALLOWING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH MAIN BULK OF THE LLJ HAS MOVED OFFSHORE...WILL STILL SEE
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP TO 15-25 MPH ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...HIGHER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON...
DRY SLOT WILL HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDDAY WITH RAINFALL
EXITING THE REGION...BUT PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
WHICH WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. IT WILL BE WINDY AS STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. SW WIND GUSTS 25-35 MPH EXPECTED AND
POSSIBLY UP TO 40 MPH SE NEW ENG. 925 MB TEMPS 13-15C SO IT WILL
BE A RATHER MILD DAY FOR LATE NOVEMBER WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
MID 60S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS. 70 DEGREES WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF WE
COULD GET SOME SUNSHINE BUT THIS DOESNT APPEAR LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION SO CANT RULE OUT A
FEW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE PARTIAL MOVES IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. IT WILL
BE AN UNSEASONABLY MILD MIGHT AS LOW LEVEL COOLING DOESNT MOVE
INTO THE REGION TIL LATE TONIGHT. MINS WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT 40S FAR W WHERE COOLING ARRIVES
EARLIER. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
* PLOWABLE SNOW STORM LIKELY WEDNESDAY...EXACT TRACK AND LOCATION OF
  RAIN/SNOW LINE STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN
* COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TOWARDS THE WEEKEND
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANOTHER STORM LATE IN THE WEEKEND

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER
STORM WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING.  UNFORTUNATELY...MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING WITH THIS STORM...PARTICULARLY THE TRACK OF THE LOW WHICH
WILL AFFECT EVERYTHING FROM AMOUNT AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION TO
TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS...WHICH WILL IN TURN AFFECT THE TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION.  THE ENSEMBLES HAVE THE LOW TRACKING ANYWHERE FROM
OVER PENNSYLVANIA TO OUT TO SEA WITH THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN.  THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO BE
TRACKING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND /AT THE WESTERN END OF THE
ENVELOPE/ TO JUST OUTSIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK /AT THE EASTERN END OF
THE ENVELOPE.  OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME FRAME THE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH MORE DISCREPANCIES SEEN WITH
THE WEEKEND FORECAST.  THE GFS IS FORECASTING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS IS
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT THOUGH.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER RELATIVELY WARM DAY EXPECTED THOUGH IT WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.  LOW PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL MOVE INTO THE
MARITIMES PULLING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  A
SOUTHWESTERLY 40 TO 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET WITH DECENT MIXING WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING MORNING...AS STATED ABOVE...THIS WILL
BE THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST AND IS ALSO THE MOST UNCERTAIN.  LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE COAST MOST LIKELY MOVING ANYWHERE FROM
DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO JUST OUTSIDE THE 40/70
BENCHMARK.  A TRACK OF THIS SORT IS LIKELY TO BRING A PLOWABLE SNOW
TO AT LEAST A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK...AM CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN
SIX INCHES OF SNOW FALLING ACROSS WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THESE AREAS.
ESPECIALLY SINCE THIS IS THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR AND
LIKELY TO AFFECT MANY.

THE ECMWF IS THE FARTHEST WEST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND BRINGS
AT LEAST THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE WESTERN AREAS.
WHILE THE GFS IS FARTHER TO THE EAST...IT TOO BRINGS AT LEAST THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AND HAS A COLDER
THERMAL PROFILE. THIS WOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SIX INCHES OF SNOW AT
LEAST OVER THE WESTERN AREAS AND LIKELY FARTHER EAST.  THIS IS
DEFINITELY A STORM TO WATCH.

WHILE THE LOCATION OF THE RAIN/SNOW LINE CANNOT BE DETERMINED AT
THIS POINT...APPEARS LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE SOMEWHERE NEAR OR WEST
OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.  A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
THANKSGIVING MORNING BEFORE THE LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT QUIET
WEATHER.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LESS CERTAINTY IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ALLOWING A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO AFFECT A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...MVFR/IFR IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. STEADY RAIN EXITS
13-16Z WITH NUMBEROUS SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON...KEEPING
MVFR/IFR CIGS LINGERING. S WIND GUSTS TO 35-40 KT POSSIBLE ACROSS
SE NEW ENG AND ESPECIALLY CAPE/ISLANDS 15-19Z...THEN SW GUSTS TO
25-35 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. LLWS LIKELY AS 2K FT WINDS 45-55
KT.

TONIGHT...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE
EVENING ACROSS W AND N TERMINALS...BUT NOT UNTIL AFT 06Z ACROSS
SE NEW ENG. BLUSTERY SW WIND GUSTS 25-35 KT IN THE EVENING
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE
BUT NOT IN TAF AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH GUSTY S WINDS. LLWS
LIKELY TODAY WITH 50 KT AT 2K FT.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LLWS LIKELY.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. SW WINDS GUST TO 25KTS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THU AM...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
SNOW/RAIN.  GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF SNOW...INCLUDING HEAVY SNOW...IS
WEST OF WORCESTER THROUGH WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT.

THU PM THROUGH FRI...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
TO THE WATERS TODAY. WHILE INVERSION IS PRESENT WHICH WILL LIMIT
STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN STILL THINK GUSTS TO 35-40 KT
POSSIBLE SO GALE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE. SW GALES WILL LINGER INTO
THE EVENING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. REDUCED VSBYS THIS MORNING IN RAIN AND FOG.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST SCA WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS...THEN WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...SEAS INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE
COASTAL WATERS.  NORTHWESTERLY GALES LIKELY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS. WESTERLY WINDS GUST TO 25 KTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE FAIRLY HIGH DURING THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. WITH SOUTHERLY GALES EXPECTED...A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 TO 2
FT IS LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH HIGHEST SURGE EXPECTED IN
NARRAGANSETT BAY. THIS MAY BRING A FEW LOCATIONS TO MINOR FLOOD.
THE MAIN THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ALONG
NARRAGANSETT BAY AND WESTPORT HARBOR DUE TO SOUTHERLY FETCH.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTH COAST. NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ018>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MAZ020>022.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ002>004-008>012-026.
NH...NONE.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ003>008.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR RIZ002-
     004>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>235-237-
     250-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



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