Home > Products > State Listing > Rhode Island Data
Latest:
 AFDBOX |
  [top]

000
FXUS61 KBOX 250205
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1005 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS...THEN DRY AND BLUSTERY
WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY WITH WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD
FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY VISITS ON THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN OUR VICINITY AT THE END OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

10 PM UPDATE...

BACK EDGE OF CLOUD LINE MOVING ACROSS THE CT RVR VLY AND ADVANCING
STEADILY EASTWARD. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE AS MID LEVEL FLOW
TRANSITIONS FROM CYCLONIC TO ANTICYCLONIC IN RESPONSE TO WEAK
SHORT WAVE RIDGING APPROACHING FROM NY AND PA.

SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT AHEAD WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE
40S...UPPER 30S WELL INLAND. A MODEST NW WIND AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE COAST WILL MAKE IT
FEEL A BIT COOLER. PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURES THESE DETAILS NICELY
SO ONLY CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE WAS TO MODIFY HOURLY
GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS PER SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...
FAIRLY POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCD COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING EAST FROM THE UPPER LAKES. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF
THE TROF WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE IN SNE FOR MOSUNNY SKIES
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ALONG WITH A MODEST WESTERLY BREEZE.
SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING UP TO 925 MB. TEMPS AT THIS LEVEL ARE NEAR
10C WHICH TRANSLATES TO MAXES 60-65 DEGREES...COOLER HIGHER
TERRAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SNE WITH COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
W ZONES 00-02Z AND OFF THE COAST AROUND 06Z. MOISTURE AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ARE LIMITED BUT SHORTWAVE IS FAIRLY ROBUST AND
THERE IS ENOUGH QG FORCING TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS. WE HAVE 20-30
POPS IN THE GRIDS. BEGIN THE FRONT...W/NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
* MAINLY DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL ON SUNDAY
* HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ON MONDAY
* CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TUE NIGHT/WED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
* POTENTIAL FOR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN OUR VICINITY AT THE END OF
  NEXT WEEK

DETAILS...

SUN...AT THE SURFACE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THROUGH THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING THE DAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
PULLING FURTHER OFFSHORE FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  FAIRLY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER OUR AREA WITH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
H850 WINDS 30 TO 40 KT...SO WILL LIKELY HAVE A BLUSTERY NW WIND ON
SUN WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 MPH AT TIMES POSSIBLE. ALOFT...MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW ROBUST SHORT WAVE DIGGING INTO UPPER TROUGH AND
MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA. THIS WILL MAINLY BRING CLOUDS TO OUR
AREA...AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED SHOWERS IN FAR WESTERN MA/SW NH. HIGH
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

MON AND TUE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
SW ON MONDAY...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY...THEN TRACK THROUGH AND NORTH OF OUR
AREA ON TUESDAY. WHILE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED WITH THE
WARM FRONT...THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED IN OUR AREA ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S ACROSS
MANY LOCALES.

TUE NIGHT AND WED... SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS LOW PRES MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC. PWATS
CLOSE TO THE COLD FRONT APPROACH 1.5 INCHES. ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE FOR SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT BUT NOT ENOUGH
FOR THUNDER AT THIS POINT. H850 WINDS 30 TO 40 KT SO SOME GUSTY
WINDS WITH THE SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE.

THU AND FRI... CONTINUE TO EXPECT BRIEF RIDGING ON THURSDAY BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER MODEL DISCREPANCIES EXIST ON THE
DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF A POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THE BRIEF
HIGH PRES MAY GIVE WAY TO A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE END
OF THE WORKWEEK...DEPENDING IN PART ON WHETHER OR NOT THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES A CUTOFF LOW. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND ON.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

10 PM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 00Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

----------------------------------------------------------------

TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS LIFTING TO VFR 00Z-03Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...WHERE MVFR CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR
BETWEEN 04Z AND 07Z. GRADUAL DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER. AFTER 07Z
VFR WITH CLEARING SKIES.

SATURDAY...VFR.

SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR CIGS. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERALL. CIGS SHOULD RISE FROM MVFR TO VFR
BY 02-03Z.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT/WED
MAY BRING LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

10 PM UPDATE...

INCREASED WINDS SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST ALONG WITH SEAS A
BIT HIGHER. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK. EARLIER
DISCUSSION BELOW.

--------------------------------------------------------------------

TONIGHT...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BUT SEAS
REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT OVER THE EASTERN WATERS SO SCA WILL CONTINUE.
SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT TOWARD DAYBREAK.

SATURDAY...NW WINDS IN THE MORNING BECOME W/SW IN THE AFTERNOON AS
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT LIKELY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BELOW SCA.

SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING WEST WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS. GOOD POST FRONTAL MIXING
SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT WITH BUILDING SEAS...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS EXPECTED
BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY MORNING.
SEAS 5-8 FT. LOW CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS LATE SUN OR
SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...SCA SEAS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE
COURSE OF THE DAY BUT GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS
WELL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLD
AS HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL OVER THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THROUGH THE WATERS. SCA WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/NMB
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA/NMB
MARINE...KJC/NOCERA/NMB




000
FXUS61 KBOX 242311
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
711 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS...THEN DRY AND BLUSTERY
WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY WITH WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD
FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY VISITS ON THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN OUR VICINITY AT THE END OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE.
CLOUDY SKIES TO START THIS EVENING BUT GRADUAL CLEARING EXPECTED
FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

LATE AFTERNOON DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT AND FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY BECOME ANTICYCLONIC AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES
INTO THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH DECENT LOW AND MID LEVEL
DRYING WILL RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES WITH THE CAPE/ISLANDS THE
LAST TO CLEAR. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...
FAIRLY POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCD COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING EAST FROM THE UPPER LAKES. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF
THE TROF WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE IN SNE FOR MOSUNNY SKIES
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ALONG WITH A MODEST WESTERLY BREEZE.
SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING UP TO 925 MB. TEMPS AT THIS LEVEL ARE NEAR
10C WHICH TRANSLATES TO MAXES 60-65 DEGREES...COOLER HIGHER
TERRAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SNE WITH COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
W ZONES 00-02Z AND OFF THE COAST AROUND 06Z. MOISTURE AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ARE LIMITED BUT SHORTWAVE IS FAIRLY ROBUST AND
THERE IS ENOUGH QG FORCING TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS. WE HAVE 20-30
POPS IN THE GRIDS. BEGIN THE FRONT...W/NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
* MAINLY DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL ON SUNDAY
* HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ON MONDAY
* CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TUE NIGHT/WED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
* POTENTIAL FOR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN OUR VICINITY AT THE END OF
  NEXT WEEK

DETAILS...

SUN...AT THE SURFACE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THROUGH THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING THE DAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
PULLING FURTHER OFFSHORE FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  FAIRLY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER OUR AREA WITH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
H850 WINDS 30 TO 40 KT...SO WILL LIKELY HAVE A BLUSTERY NW WIND ON
SUN WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 MPH AT TIMES POSSIBLE. ALOFT...MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW ROBUST SHORT WAVE DIGGING INTO UPPER TROUGH AND
MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA. THIS WILL MAINLY BRING CLOUDS TO OUR
AREA...AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED SHOWERS IN FAR WESTERN MA/SW NH. HIGH
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

MON AND TUE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
SW ON MONDAY...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY...THEN TRACK THROUGH AND NORTH OF OUR
AREA ON TUESDAY. WHILE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED WITH THE
WARM FRONT...THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED IN OUR AREA ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S ACROSS
MANY LOCALES.

TUE NIGHT AND WED... SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS LOW PRES MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC. PWATS
CLOSE TO THE COLD FRONT APPROACH 1.5 INCHES. ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE FOR SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT BUT NOT ENOUGH
FOR THUNDER AT THIS POINT. H850 WINDS 30 TO 40 KT SO SOME GUSTY
WINDS WITH THE SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE.

THU AND FRI... CONTINUE TO EXPECT BRIEF RIDGING ON THURSDAY BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER MODEL DISCREPANCIES EXIST ON THE
DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF A POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THE BRIEF
HIGH PRES MAY GIVE WAY TO A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE END
OF THE WORKWEEK...DEPENDING IN PART ON WHETHER OR NOT THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES A CUTOFF LOW. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND ON.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS LIFTING TO VFR 00Z-03Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...WHERE MVFR CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR
BETWEEN 04Z AND 07Z. GRADUAL DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER. AFTER 07Z
VFR WITH CLEARING SKIES.

SATURDAY...VFR.

SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR CIGS. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERALL. CIGS SHOULD RISE FROM MVFR TO VFR
BY 02-03Z.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT/WED
MAY BRING LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BUT SEAS
REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT OVER THE EASTERN WATERS SO SCA WILL CONTINUE.
SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT TOWARD DAYBREAK.

SATURDAY...NW WINDS IN THE MORNING BECOME W/SW IN THE AFTERNOON AS
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT LIKELY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BELOW SCA.

SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING WEST WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS. GOOD POST FRONTAL MIXING
SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT WITH BUILDING SEAS...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS EXPECTED
BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY MORNING.
SEAS 5-8 FT. LOW CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS LATE SUN OR
SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...SCA SEAS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE
COURSE OF THE DAY BUT GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS
WELL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLD
AS HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL OVER THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THROUGH THE WATERS. SCA WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/NMB
NEAR TERM...KJC/NMB
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...KJC/NMB
MARINE...KJC/NMB




000
FXUS61 KBOX 241956
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
356 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS...THEN DRY AND BLUSTERY
WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY WITH WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD
FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY VISITS ON THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN OUR VICINITY AT THE END OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT AND FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY BECOME ANTICYCLONIC AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES
INTO THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH DECENT LOW AND MID LEVEL
DRYING WILL RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES WITH THE CAPE/ISLANDS THE
LAST TO CLEAR. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...
FAIRLY POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCD COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING EAST FROM THE UPPER LAKES. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF
THE TROF WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE IN SNE FOR MOSUNNY SKIES
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ALONG WITH A MODEST WESTERLY BREEZE.
SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING UP TO 925 MB. TEMPS AT THIS LEVEL ARE NEAR
10C WHICH TRANSLATES TO MAXES 60-65 DEGREES...COOLER HIGHER
TERRAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SNE WITH COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
W ZONES 00-02Z AND OFF THE COAST AROUND 06Z. MOISTURE AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ARE LIMITED BUT SHORTWAVE IS FAIRLY ROBUST AND
THERE IS ENOUGH QG FORCING TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS. WE HAVE 20-30
POPS IN THE GRIDS. BEGIN THE FRONT...W/NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

* MAINLY DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL ON SUNDAY
* HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ON MONDAY
* CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TUE NIGHT/WED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
* POTENTIAL FOR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN OUR VICINITY AT THE END OF
  NEXT WEEK

DETAILS...

SUN...AT THE SURFACE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THROUGH THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING THE DAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
PULLING FURTHER OFFSHORE FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  FAIRLY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER OUR AREA WITH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
H850 WINDS 30 TO 40 KT...SO WILL LIKELY HAVE A BLUSTERY NW WIND ON
SUN WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 MPH AT TIMES POSSIBLE. ALOFT...MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW ROBUST SHORT WAVE DIGGING INTO UPPER TROUGH AND
MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA. THIS WILL MAINLY BRING CLOUDS TO OUR
AREA...AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED SHOWERS IN FAR WESTERN MA/SW NH. HIGH
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

MON AND TUE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
SW ON MONDAY...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY...THEN TRACK THROUGH AND NORTH OF OUR
AREA ON TUESDAY. WHILE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED WITH THE
WARM FRONT...THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED IN OUR AREA ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S ACROSS
MANY LOCALES.

TUE NIGHT AND WED... SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS LOW PRES MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC. PWATS
CLOSE TO THE COLD FRONT APPROACH 1.5 INCHES. ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE FOR SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT BUT NOT ENOUGH
FOR THUNDER AT THIS POINT. H850 WINDS 30 TO 40 KT SO SOME GUSTY
WINDS WITH THE SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE.

THU AND FRI... CONTINUE TO EXPECT BRIEF RIDGING ON THURSDAY BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER MODEL DISCREPANCIES EXIST ON THE
DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF A POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THE BRIEF
HIGH PRES MAY GIVE WAY TO A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE END
OF THE WORKWEEK...DEPENDING IN PART ON WHETHER OR NOT THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES A CUTOFF LOW. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND ON.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 00Z...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS...BUT LIFTING TO VFR IN THE CT
VALLEY...AND POSSIBLY OTHER NON CAPE COD TERMINALS 22-00Z. NW
WIND GUSTS TO 20-25 KT WILL BE DIMINISHING.

TONIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS LINGER ON THE CAPE THROUGH
06Z...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WITH CLEARING SKIES.

SATURDAY...VFR.

SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR CIGS. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERALL. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING TO
VFR.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT/WED
MAY BRING LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BUT SEAS
REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT OVER THE EASTERN WATERS SO SCA WILL CONTINUE.
SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT TOWARD DAYBREAK.

SATURDAY...NW WINDS IN THE MORNING BECOME W/SW IN THE AFTERNOON AS
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT LIKELY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BELOW SCA.

SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING WEST WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS. GOOD POST FRONTAL MIXING
SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT WITH BUILDING SEAS...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS EXPECTED
BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY MORNING.
SEAS 5-8 FT. LOW CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS LATE SUN OR
SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...SCA SEAS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE
COURSE OF THE DAY BUT GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS
WELL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLD
AS HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL OVER THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THROUGH THE WATERS. SCA WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/NMB
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...KJC/NMB
MARINE...KJC/NMB




000
FXUS61 KBOX 241956
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
356 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS...THEN DRY AND BLUSTERY
WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY WITH WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD
FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY VISITS ON THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN OUR VICINITY AT THE END OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT AND FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY BECOME ANTICYCLONIC AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES
INTO THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH DECENT LOW AND MID LEVEL
DRYING WILL RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES WITH THE CAPE/ISLANDS THE
LAST TO CLEAR. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...
FAIRLY POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCD COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING EAST FROM THE UPPER LAKES. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF
THE TROF WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE IN SNE FOR MOSUNNY SKIES
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ALONG WITH A MODEST WESTERLY BREEZE.
SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING UP TO 925 MB. TEMPS AT THIS LEVEL ARE NEAR
10C WHICH TRANSLATES TO MAXES 60-65 DEGREES...COOLER HIGHER
TERRAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SNE WITH COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
W ZONES 00-02Z AND OFF THE COAST AROUND 06Z. MOISTURE AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ARE LIMITED BUT SHORTWAVE IS FAIRLY ROBUST AND
THERE IS ENOUGH QG FORCING TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS. WE HAVE 20-30
POPS IN THE GRIDS. BEGIN THE FRONT...W/NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

* MAINLY DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL ON SUNDAY
* HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ON MONDAY
* CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TUE NIGHT/WED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
* POTENTIAL FOR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN OUR VICINITY AT THE END OF
  NEXT WEEK

DETAILS...

SUN...AT THE SURFACE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THROUGH THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING THE DAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
PULLING FURTHER OFFSHORE FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  FAIRLY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER OUR AREA WITH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
H850 WINDS 30 TO 40 KT...SO WILL LIKELY HAVE A BLUSTERY NW WIND ON
SUN WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 MPH AT TIMES POSSIBLE. ALOFT...MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW ROBUST SHORT WAVE DIGGING INTO UPPER TROUGH AND
MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA. THIS WILL MAINLY BRING CLOUDS TO OUR
AREA...AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED SHOWERS IN FAR WESTERN MA/SW NH. HIGH
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

MON AND TUE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
SW ON MONDAY...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY...THEN TRACK THROUGH AND NORTH OF OUR
AREA ON TUESDAY. WHILE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED WITH THE
WARM FRONT...THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED IN OUR AREA ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S ACROSS
MANY LOCALES.

TUE NIGHT AND WED... SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS LOW PRES MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC. PWATS
CLOSE TO THE COLD FRONT APPROACH 1.5 INCHES. ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE FOR SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT BUT NOT ENOUGH
FOR THUNDER AT THIS POINT. H850 WINDS 30 TO 40 KT SO SOME GUSTY
WINDS WITH THE SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE.

THU AND FRI... CONTINUE TO EXPECT BRIEF RIDGING ON THURSDAY BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER MODEL DISCREPANCIES EXIST ON THE
DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF A POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THE BRIEF
HIGH PRES MAY GIVE WAY TO A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE END
OF THE WORKWEEK...DEPENDING IN PART ON WHETHER OR NOT THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES A CUTOFF LOW. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND ON.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 00Z...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS...BUT LIFTING TO VFR IN THE CT
VALLEY...AND POSSIBLY OTHER NON CAPE COD TERMINALS 22-00Z. NW
WIND GUSTS TO 20-25 KT WILL BE DIMINISHING.

TONIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS LINGER ON THE CAPE THROUGH
06Z...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WITH CLEARING SKIES.

SATURDAY...VFR.

SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR CIGS. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERALL. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING TO
VFR.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT/WED
MAY BRING LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BUT SEAS
REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT OVER THE EASTERN WATERS SO SCA WILL CONTINUE.
SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT TOWARD DAYBREAK.

SATURDAY...NW WINDS IN THE MORNING BECOME W/SW IN THE AFTERNOON AS
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT LIKELY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BELOW SCA.

SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT INCREASING WEST WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS. GOOD POST FRONTAL MIXING
SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT WITH BUILDING SEAS...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTH COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS EXPECTED
BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY MORNING.
SEAS 5-8 FT. LOW CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS LATE SUN OR
SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...SCA SEAS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE
COURSE OF THE DAY BUT GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS
WELL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLD
AS HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL OVER THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THROUGH THE WATERS. SCA WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/NMB
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...NMB
AVIATION...KJC/NMB
MARINE...KJC/NMB




000
FXUS61 KBOX 241752
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
152 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM THAT BROUGHT STRONG WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINS TO THE REGION THU WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OUT TO
SEA TODAY. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL DRY UP
AND GIVE WAY TO JUST CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER
SATURDAY.BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY BUT BLUSTERY WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR
SUNDAY WITH WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING MORE
RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
145 PM UPDATE...
JUST A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS REMAINING ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENG...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS. CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH AND WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WITH ONE LAST
SHORTWAVE EXITING THE REGION TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...WARM CONVEYOR
BELT IN THE COMMA HEAD CONTINUES TO ROTATE A FEW SHOWERS SOUTH
ACROSS NEW ENG. ACTIVITY IS LIGHT AND IS DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE.
EXPECT A MAINLY DRY AFTERNOON WITH JUST A LOW PROB OF AN ISOLD
SHOWER EASTERN HALF NEW ENG. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE WITH
CLEARING LIKELY WAITING UNTIL AFTER DARK...ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS
SHOULD DEVELOP IN WESTERN NEW ENG LATE IN THE DAY. WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER...MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 50S. CURRENT
FORECAST ON TRACK...MADE A FEW MODIFICATIONS TO T/TD/POP GRIDS TO
REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...

CLOSED LOW OVER NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST. THIS
RESULTS IN CYCLONIC FLOW TRANSITIONING TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL YIELD CLEARING SKIES. A MODEST NW
WIND WILL PRECLUDE WINDS/BLYR FROM DECOUPLING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT.

SATURDAY...

APPEARS THE BETTER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS WEAK SHORT WAVE
RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND PROVIDES ENOUGH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE FOR MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. THIS COMBINED
WITH WNW WINDS WILL RESULT IN MILD CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS WELL INTO
THE 60S...SEVERAL DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH MAY SEE
TEMPS DROP A BIT LATE IN THE DAY AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST
OFF THE OCEAN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
* DRIER WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AROUND
* RAINY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
BOTH OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. AT WHICH
POINT THERE IS MORE DIVERGENCE DUE TO ISSUES REGARDING A MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE
E CONUS AND THE WRN ATLANTIC BY THAT PERIOD...THE SLOWER SOLUTION
/ONE FAVORED BY THE ECMWF AND SEVERAL GEFS/ECENS MEMBERS/ WILL BE
GIVEN MORE WEIGHT AT THIS TIME. THIS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH TUE NIGHT-WED MAY STALL CLOSE ENOUGH TO
SRN NEW ENGLAND FOR CONTINUED -SHRA ACTIVITY...BUT AT THIS
POINT...DRIER NW FLOW MAY DOMINATE SO USING ONLY SOME WEIGHT WILL
STILL LIKELY YIELD A MAINLY DRY FORECAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AFTER A ROBUST BUT FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT COMBINATION SLIDES THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN. THERE IS A TRANSITION TOWARD MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
NE...BUT UNDER BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. ASIDE FROM THE DRY WX AND SUBSIDENCE...THIS ALSO
SUGGESTS A WARMING TREND SUCH THAT TEMPS MAY REACH ABOVE NORMAL
TUE AND WED. A SECOND FRONT MOVES THROUGH MID WEEK FOLLOWED BY
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW DRY IT WILL BE GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT STALLS OFFSHORE.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...
A ROBUST SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW PRES
SLIDING THROUGH QUEBEC...DRAGGING A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. W FLOW AHEAD AND NW FLOW
BEHIND...WITHIN AN ALREADY DRY COLUMN SUGGESTS THAT THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS MAINLY DRY IN SPITE OF OF THE F-GEN APPARENT AND ACUITY
OF THE UPPER LVL WAVE. STILL...WILL BE ISSUING SOME SLIGHT TO
MAYBE EVEN LOW END CHANCE POPS GIVEN THIS LIFT POTENTIAL AND PWATS
ABOUT 0.75. OTHERWISE...FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AT LEAST
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FROPA GIVEN 35-45
KT WINDS BETWEEN H92 AND H85. CLOUDS SUGGEST OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. BLUSTERY NW FLOW ON SUN WITH GUSTS 20-3O
MPH AT TIMES POSSIBLE AND PLENTY OF COLD ADVECTION SC SUGGEST
HIGHS BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

MON AND TUE...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLIDING OVER THE REGION FROM THE SW...A WARM
FRONT MOVING INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC LATE MON NIGHT. SO EXPECT A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL MON...TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY TUE.

WED...
SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION AS LOW PRES
MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC. GIVEN THE INCREASING TEMPS AND DWPTS ALONG
WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES...LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE FOR WIDESPREAD -SHRA BUT MAYBE NOT ENOUGH FOR THUNDER
AT THIS POINT. COULD BE SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FROPA/SHOWERS AS
WELL GIVEN H92 WINDS APPROACHING 45 KT. STILL...ITS ENTERING
TERRITORY OF A BUILDING RIDGE...SO MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS
MESOSCALE COMPONENTS WOULD SUGGEST...BUT SOMETHING WORTH
WATCHING.

THU AND FRI...
ALTHOUGH BRIEF RIDGING IS LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THERE ARE SOME DISAGREEMENT AS GUIDANCE MAY ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP YET
ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW PRES BUT THIS TIME IN/NEAR NRN NEW ENGLAND. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES HERE WHICH WILL NEED
TO BE RESOLVED...BUT BRIEF HIGH PRES MAY GIVE WAY TO YET ANOTHER
COASTAL LOW PRES BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK DEPENDING ON WHERE
THE FRONT STALLS AND THE ULTIMATE DEPTH AND LOCATION OF THE UPPER
LVL CUTOFF. FOR NOW...NIL TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS YIELD THE
UNCERTAINTY ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 00Z...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS...BUT LIFTING TO VFR IN THE CT
VALLEY...AND POSSIBLY OTHER NON CAPE COD TERMINALS 22-00Z. NW
WIND GUSTS TO 20-25 KT WILL BE DIMINISHING.

TONIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS LINGER ON THE CAPE THROUGH
06Z...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WITH CLEARING SKIES.

SATURDAY...VFR.

SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR CIGS. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERALL. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING TO
VFR.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...GALE CENTER SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA STILL PRODUCING GUSTS TO
25-30 KT OVER EASTERN WATERS...BUT THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW
25 KT THIS AFTERNOON. 8-10 FT SEAS EASTERN WATERS WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
DROPPED FOR WATERS WEST OF THE CAPE COD CANAL BUT CONTINUE TO THE
EAST.

TONIGHT...GALE CENTER NEAR NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUBSIDING WINDS AND SEAS.

SATURDAY...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS...YIELDING A MODEST WEST WIND BECOMING SW LATE IN
THE DAY. LEFTOVER NE SWELLS ACROSS THE EASTERN MA WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. W WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A FRONT WHICH
WILL CROSS EARLY SUN MORNING. THE WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE NW SUN
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-8 FT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25
TO 30 KT POSSIBLE. LOW CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD AS HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL OVER THE REGION.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231-
     232-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 241423
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1023 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM THAT BROUGHT STRONG WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINS TO THE REGION THU WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OUT TO
SEA TODAY. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL DRY UP
AND GIVE WAY TO JUST CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER
SATURDAY.BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY BUT BLUSTERY WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR
SUNDAY WITH WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING MORE
RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1015 AM UPDATE...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WITH ONE LAST
SHORTWAVE EXITING THE REGION TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...WARM
CONVEYOR BELT IN THE COMMA HEAD CONTINUES TO ROTATE A FEW SHOWERS
SOUTH ACROSS NEW ENG. ACTIVITY IS LIGHT AND IS DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE. EXPECT A MAINLY DRY AFTERNOON WITH JUST A LOW PROB OF
AN ISOLD SHOWER EASTERN HALF NEW ENG. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE
WITH CLEARING LIKELY WAITING UNTIL AFTER DARK...ALTHOUGH SOME
BREAKS SHOULD DEVELOP IN WESTERN NEW ENG LATE IN THE DAY. WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 50S.
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK...MADE A FEW MODIFICATIONS TO T/TD/POP
GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...

CLOSED LOW OVER NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST. THIS
RESULTS IN CYCLONIC FLOW TRANSITIONING TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL YIELD CLEARING SKIES. A MODEST NW
WIND WILL PRECLUDE WINDS/BLYR FROM DECOUPLING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT.

SATURDAY...

APPEARS THE BETTER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS WEAK SHORT WAVE
RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND PROVIDES ENOUGH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE FOR MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. THIS COMBINED
WITH WNW WINDS WILL RESULT IN MILD CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS WELL INTO
THE 60S...SEVERAL DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH MAY SEE
TEMPS DROP A BIT LATE IN THE DAY AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST
OFF THE OCEAN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
* DRIER WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AROUND
* RAINY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
BOTH OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. AT WHICH
POINT THERE IS MORE DIVERGENCE DUE TO ISSUES REGARDING A MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE
E CONUS AND THE WRN ATLANTIC BY THAT PERIOD...THE SLOWER SOLUTION
/ONE FAVORED BY THE ECMWF AND SEVERAL GEFS/ECENS MEMBERS/ WILL BE
GIVEN MORE WEIGHT AT THIS TIME. THIS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH TUE NIGHT-WED MAY STALL CLOSE ENOUGH TO
SRN NEW ENGLAND FOR CONTINUED -SHRA ACTIVITY...BUT AT THIS
POINT...DRIER NW FLOW MAY DOMINATE SO USING ONLY SOME WEIGHT WILL
STILL LIKELY YIELD A MAINLY DRY FORECAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AFTER A ROBUST BUT FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT COMBINATION SLIDES THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN. THERE IS A TRANSITION TOWARD MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
NE...BUT UNDER BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. ASIDE FROM THE DRY WX AND SUBSIDENCE...THIS ALSO
SUGGESTS A WARMING TREND SUCH THAT TEMPS MAY REACH ABOVE NORMAL
TUE AND WED. A SECOND FRONT MOVES THROUGH MID WEEK FOLLOWED BY
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW DRY IT WILL BE GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT STALLS OFFSHORE.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...
A ROBUST SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW PRES
SLIDING THROUGH QUEBEC...DRAGGING A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. W FLOW AHEAD AND NW FLOW
BEHIND...WITHIN AN ALREADY DRY COLUMN SUGGESTS THAT THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS MAINLY DRY IN SPITE OF OF THE F-GEN APPARENT AND ACUITY
OF THE UPPER LVL WAVE. STILL...WILL BE ISSUING SOME SLIGHT TO
MAYBE EVEN LOW END CHANCE POPS GIVEN THIS LIFT POTENTIAL AND PWATS
ABOUT 0.75. OTHERWISE...FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AT LEAST
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FROPA GIVEN 35-45
KT WINDS BETWEEN H92 AND H85. CLOUDS SUGGEST OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. BLUSTERY NW FLOW ON SUN WITH GUSTS 20-3O
MPH AT TIMES POSSIBLE AND PLENTY OF COLD ADVECTION SC SUGGEST
HIGHS BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

MON AND TUE...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLIDING OVER THE REGION FROM THE SW...A WARM
FRONT MOVING INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC LATE MON NIGHT. SO EXPECT A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL MON...TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY TUE.

WED...
SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION AS LOW PRES
MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC. GIVEN THE INCREASING TEMPS AND DWPTS ALONG
WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES...LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE FOR WIDESPREAD -SHRA BUT MAYBE NOT ENOUGH FOR THUNDER
AT THIS POINT. COULD BE SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FROPA/SHOWERS AS
WELL GIVEN H92 WINDS APPROACHING 45 KT. STILL...ITS ENTERING
TERRITORY OF A BUILDING RIDGE...SO MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS
MESOSCALE COMPONENTS WOULD SUGGEST...BUT SOMETHING WORTH
WATCHING.

THU AND FRI...
ALTHOUGH BRIEF RIDGING IS LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THERE ARE SOME DISAGREEMENT AS GUIDANCE MAY ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP YET
ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW PRES BUT THIS TIME IN/NEAR NRN NEW ENGLAND. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES HERE WHICH WILL NEED
TO BE RESOLVED...BUT BRIEF HIGH PRES MAY GIVE WAY TO YET ANOTHER
COASTAL LOW PRES BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK DEPENDING ON WHERE
THE FRONT STALLS AND THE ULTIMATE DEPTH AND LOCATION OF THE UPPER
LVL CUTOFF. FOR NOW...NIL TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS YIELD THE
UNCERTAINTY ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY THEN
INCREASING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND SAT.

TODAY...
IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME...BUT EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WITH THE
MAINLY MVFR /IFR CAPE AND ISLANDS/ CONDITIONS IMPROVING SLOWLY
WITH TIME BOTH DUE TO LIFTING CIGS AND BREAKING CLOUDS.
SOME LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS MAINLY NW...WITH A FEW GUSTS 20+ KT POSSIBLE AT EAST COASTAL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING...DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

TONIGHT...
SKIES BECOME CLEAR ALONG WITH VFR VSBYS AS WINDS BECOME WNW.

SATURDAY...
VFR ALONG WITH A MODEST WEST WIND.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY BUT INCREASING TO HIGH
TONIGHT AND SAT.

KBDL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY BUT INCREASING TO HIGH
TONIGHT AND SAT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...GALE CENTER SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA STILL PRODUCING GUSTS TO
25-30 KT OVER EASTERN WATERS...BUT THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW
25 KT THIS AFTERNOON. 8-10 FT SEAS EASTERN WATERS WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
DROPPED FOR WATERS WEST OF THE CAPE COD CANAL BUT CONTINUE TO THE
EAST.

TONIGHT...GALE CENTER NEAR NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUBSIDING WINDS AND SEAS.

SATURDAY...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS...YIELDING A MODEST WEST WIND BECOMING SW LATE IN
THE DAY. LEFTOVER NE SWELLS ACROSS THE EASTERN MA WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. W WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A FRONT WHICH
WILL CROSS EARLY SUN MORNING. THE WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE NW SUN
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-8 FT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25
TO 30 KT POSSIBLE. LOW CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD AS HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL OVER THE REGION.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231-
     232-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 241423
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1023 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM THAT BROUGHT STRONG WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINS TO THE REGION THU WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OUT TO
SEA TODAY. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL DRY UP
AND GIVE WAY TO JUST CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER
SATURDAY.BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY BUT BLUSTERY WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR
SUNDAY WITH WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING MORE
RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1015 AM UPDATE...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WITH ONE LAST
SHORTWAVE EXITING THE REGION TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...WARM
CONVEYOR BELT IN THE COMMA HEAD CONTINUES TO ROTATE A FEW SHOWERS
SOUTH ACROSS NEW ENG. ACTIVITY IS LIGHT AND IS DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE. EXPECT A MAINLY DRY AFTERNOON WITH JUST A LOW PROB OF
AN ISOLD SHOWER EASTERN HALF NEW ENG. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE
WITH CLEARING LIKELY WAITING UNTIL AFTER DARK...ALTHOUGH SOME
BREAKS SHOULD DEVELOP IN WESTERN NEW ENG LATE IN THE DAY. WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 50S.
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK...MADE A FEW MODIFICATIONS TO T/TD/POP
GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...

CLOSED LOW OVER NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST. THIS
RESULTS IN CYCLONIC FLOW TRANSITIONING TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL YIELD CLEARING SKIES. A MODEST NW
WIND WILL PRECLUDE WINDS/BLYR FROM DECOUPLING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT.

SATURDAY...

APPEARS THE BETTER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS WEAK SHORT WAVE
RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND PROVIDES ENOUGH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE FOR MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. THIS COMBINED
WITH WNW WINDS WILL RESULT IN MILD CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS WELL INTO
THE 60S...SEVERAL DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH MAY SEE
TEMPS DROP A BIT LATE IN THE DAY AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST
OFF THE OCEAN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
* DRIER WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AROUND
* RAINY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
BOTH OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. AT WHICH
POINT THERE IS MORE DIVERGENCE DUE TO ISSUES REGARDING A MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE
E CONUS AND THE WRN ATLANTIC BY THAT PERIOD...THE SLOWER SOLUTION
/ONE FAVORED BY THE ECMWF AND SEVERAL GEFS/ECENS MEMBERS/ WILL BE
GIVEN MORE WEIGHT AT THIS TIME. THIS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH TUE NIGHT-WED MAY STALL CLOSE ENOUGH TO
SRN NEW ENGLAND FOR CONTINUED -SHRA ACTIVITY...BUT AT THIS
POINT...DRIER NW FLOW MAY DOMINATE SO USING ONLY SOME WEIGHT WILL
STILL LIKELY YIELD A MAINLY DRY FORECAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AFTER A ROBUST BUT FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT COMBINATION SLIDES THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN. THERE IS A TRANSITION TOWARD MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
NE...BUT UNDER BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. ASIDE FROM THE DRY WX AND SUBSIDENCE...THIS ALSO
SUGGESTS A WARMING TREND SUCH THAT TEMPS MAY REACH ABOVE NORMAL
TUE AND WED. A SECOND FRONT MOVES THROUGH MID WEEK FOLLOWED BY
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW DRY IT WILL BE GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT STALLS OFFSHORE.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...
A ROBUST SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW PRES
SLIDING THROUGH QUEBEC...DRAGGING A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. W FLOW AHEAD AND NW FLOW
BEHIND...WITHIN AN ALREADY DRY COLUMN SUGGESTS THAT THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS MAINLY DRY IN SPITE OF OF THE F-GEN APPARENT AND ACUITY
OF THE UPPER LVL WAVE. STILL...WILL BE ISSUING SOME SLIGHT TO
MAYBE EVEN LOW END CHANCE POPS GIVEN THIS LIFT POTENTIAL AND PWATS
ABOUT 0.75. OTHERWISE...FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AT LEAST
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FROPA GIVEN 35-45
KT WINDS BETWEEN H92 AND H85. CLOUDS SUGGEST OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. BLUSTERY NW FLOW ON SUN WITH GUSTS 20-3O
MPH AT TIMES POSSIBLE AND PLENTY OF COLD ADVECTION SC SUGGEST
HIGHS BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

MON AND TUE...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLIDING OVER THE REGION FROM THE SW...A WARM
FRONT MOVING INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC LATE MON NIGHT. SO EXPECT A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL MON...TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY TUE.

WED...
SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION AS LOW PRES
MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC. GIVEN THE INCREASING TEMPS AND DWPTS ALONG
WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES...LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE FOR WIDESPREAD -SHRA BUT MAYBE NOT ENOUGH FOR THUNDER
AT THIS POINT. COULD BE SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FROPA/SHOWERS AS
WELL GIVEN H92 WINDS APPROACHING 45 KT. STILL...ITS ENTERING
TERRITORY OF A BUILDING RIDGE...SO MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS
MESOSCALE COMPONENTS WOULD SUGGEST...BUT SOMETHING WORTH
WATCHING.

THU AND FRI...
ALTHOUGH BRIEF RIDGING IS LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THERE ARE SOME DISAGREEMENT AS GUIDANCE MAY ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP YET
ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW PRES BUT THIS TIME IN/NEAR NRN NEW ENGLAND. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES HERE WHICH WILL NEED
TO BE RESOLVED...BUT BRIEF HIGH PRES MAY GIVE WAY TO YET ANOTHER
COASTAL LOW PRES BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK DEPENDING ON WHERE
THE FRONT STALLS AND THE ULTIMATE DEPTH AND LOCATION OF THE UPPER
LVL CUTOFF. FOR NOW...NIL TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS YIELD THE
UNCERTAINTY ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY THEN
INCREASING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND SAT.

TODAY...
IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME...BUT EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WITH THE
MAINLY MVFR /IFR CAPE AND ISLANDS/ CONDITIONS IMPROVING SLOWLY
WITH TIME BOTH DUE TO LIFTING CIGS AND BREAKING CLOUDS.
SOME LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS MAINLY NW...WITH A FEW GUSTS 20+ KT POSSIBLE AT EAST COASTAL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING...DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

TONIGHT...
SKIES BECOME CLEAR ALONG WITH VFR VSBYS AS WINDS BECOME WNW.

SATURDAY...
VFR ALONG WITH A MODEST WEST WIND.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY BUT INCREASING TO HIGH
TONIGHT AND SAT.

KBDL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY BUT INCREASING TO HIGH
TONIGHT AND SAT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...GALE CENTER SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA STILL PRODUCING GUSTS TO
25-30 KT OVER EASTERN WATERS...BUT THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW
25 KT THIS AFTERNOON. 8-10 FT SEAS EASTERN WATERS WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
DROPPED FOR WATERS WEST OF THE CAPE COD CANAL BUT CONTINUE TO THE
EAST.

TONIGHT...GALE CENTER NEAR NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUBSIDING WINDS AND SEAS.

SATURDAY...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS...YIELDING A MODEST WEST WIND BECOMING SW LATE IN
THE DAY. LEFTOVER NE SWELLS ACROSS THE EASTERN MA WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. W WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A FRONT WHICH
WILL CROSS EARLY SUN MORNING. THE WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE NW SUN
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-8 FT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25
TO 30 KT POSSIBLE. LOW CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD AS HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL OVER THE REGION.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231-
     232-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254-255.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 241129
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
729 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM THAT BROUGHT STRONG WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINS TO THE REGION THU WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OUT TO
SEA TODAY. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL DRY UP
AND GIVE WAY TO JUST CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER
SATURDAY.BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY BUT BLUSTERY WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR
SUNDAY WITH WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING MORE
RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
AREA OF RAFL MOVING ACROSS MAINLY THE WRN HALF OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH ONE FINAL SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE
EXITING OCCLUSION. THIS LAST WAVE IS LIKELY TO BE THE
KICKER...FINALLY ALLOWING THIS FEATURE TO EXIT TO THE EAST AND
LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON SRN NEW ENGLAND. STILL A FEW MORE SHOWERS LEFT
IN THE HOPPER AS IT DOES SO THOUGH...BUT THESE ARE LIKELY TO
BECOME MUCH FEWER AND FARTHER BETWEEN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS MAY TAKE A BIT LONGER TO SCOUR
OUT...BUT DO FEEL THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING IN THE WEST BY
EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERTICALLY STACKED OCCLUDED LOW
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND OVER GEORGES BANK. ITS COMMA-HEAD/TROWAL RAINS
STRETCH FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO
MAINE/NH/MA/CT AND RI. THIS WARM/MOISTURE CONVEYOR BELT PRECIP
/ALBEIT LIGHT/ WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
AND SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THE AFTERNOON HOURS
SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...COMMA-HEAD CLOUDS WILL LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY
WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING/SUNSHINE POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNSET ACROSS
WESTERN CT/MA.

CLOUD COVER/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND NNW WINDS WILL PROVIDE COOL
WEATHER TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A
TEMP RISE WITH HIGHS TODAY ONLY ABOUT 5-8 DEGS AWAY FROM
CURRENT/PREDAWN TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...

CLOSED LOW OVER NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST. THIS
RESULTS IN CYCLONIC FLOW TRANSITIONING TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL YIELD CLEARING SKIES. A MODEST NW
WIND WILL PRECLUDE WINDS/BLYR FROM DECOUPLING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT.

SATURDAY...

APPEARS THE BETTER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS WEAK SHORT WAVE
RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND PROVIDES ENOUGH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE FOR MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. THIS COMBINED
WITH WNW WINDS WILL RESULT IN MILD CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS WELL INTO
THE 60S...SEVERAL DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH MAY SEE
TEMPS DROP A BIT LATE IN THE DAY AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST
OFF THE OCEAN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
* DRIER WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AROUND
* RAINY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
BOTH OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. AT WHICH
POINT THERE IS MORE DIVERGENCE DUE TO ISSUES REGARDING A MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE
E CONUS AND THE WRN ATLANTIC BY THAT PERIOD...THE SLOWER SOLUTION
/ONE FAVORED BY THE ECMWF AND SEVERAL GEFS/ECENS MEMBERS/ WILL BE
GIVEN MORE WEIGHT AT THIS TIME. THIS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH TUE NIGHT-WED MAY STALL CLOSE ENOUGH TO
SRN NEW ENGLAND FOR CONTINUED -SHRA ACTIVITY...BUT AT THIS
POINT...DRIER NW FLOW MAY DOMINATE SO USING ONLY SOME WEIGHT WILL
STILL LIKELY YIELD A MAINLY DRY FORECAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AFTER A ROBUST BUT FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT COMBINATION SLIDES THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN. THERE IS A TRANSITION TOWARD MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
NE...BUT UNDER BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. ASIDE FROM THE DRY WX AND SUBSIDENCE...THIS ALSO
SUGGESTS A WARMING TREND SUCH THAT TEMPS MAY REACH ABOVE NORMAL
TUE AND WED. A SECOND FRONT MOVES THROUGH MID WEEK FOLLOWED BY
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW DRY IT WILL BE GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT STALLS OFFSHORE.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...
A ROBUST SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW PRES
SLIDING THROUGH QUEBEC...DRAGGING A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. W FLOW AHEAD AND NW FLOW
BEHIND...WITHIN AN ALREADY DRY COLUMN SUGGESTS THAT THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS MAINLY DRY IN SPITE OF OF THE F-GEN APPARENT AND ACUITY
OF THE UPPER LVL WAVE. STILL...WILL BE ISSUING SOME SLIGHT TO
MAYBE EVEN LOW END CHANCE POPS GIVEN THIS LIFT POTENTIAL AND PWATS
ABOUT 0.75. OTHERWISE...FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AT LEAST
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FROPA GIVEN 35-45
KT WINDS BETWEEN H92 AND H85. CLOUDS SUGGEST OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. BLUSTERY NW FLOW ON SUN WITH GUSTS 20-3O
MPH AT TIMES POSSIBLE AND PLENTY OF COLD ADVECTION SC SUGGEST
HIGHS BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

MON AND TUE...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLIDING OVER THE REGION FROM THE SW...A WARM
FRONT MOVING INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC LATE MON NIGHT. SO EXPECT A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL MON...TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY TUE.

WED...
SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION AS LOW PRES
MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC. GIVEN THE INCREASING TEMPS AND DWPTS ALONG
WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES...LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE FOR WIDESPREAD -SHRA BUT MAYBE NOT ENOUGH FOR THUNDER
AT THIS POINT. COULD BE SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FROPA/SHOWERS AS
WELL GIVEN H92 WINDS APPROACHING 45 KT. STILL...ITS ENTERING
TERRITORY OF A BUILDING RIDGE...SO MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS
MESOSCALE COMPONENTS WOULD SUGGEST...BUT SOMETHING WORTH
WATCHING.

THU AND FRI...
ALTHOUGH BRIEF RIDGING IS LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THERE ARE SOME DISAGREEMENT AS GUIDANCE MAY ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP YET
ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW PRES BUT THIS TIME IN/NEAR NRN NEW ENGLAND. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES HERE WHICH WILL NEED
TO BE RESOLVED...BUT BRIEF HIGH PRES MAY GIVE WAY TO YET ANOTHER
COASTAL LOW PRES BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK DEPENDING ON WHERE
THE FRONT STALLS AND THE ULTIMATE DEPTH AND LOCATION OF THE UPPER
LVL CUTOFF. FOR NOW...NIL TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS YIELD THE
UNCERTAINTY ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY THEN
INCREASING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND SAT.

TODAY...
IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME...BUT EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WITH THE
MAINLY MVFR /IFR CAPE AND ISLANDS/ CONDITIONS IMPROVING SLOWLY
WITH TIME BOTH DUE TO LIFTING CIGS AND BREAKING CLOUDS.
SOME LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS MAINLY NW...WITH A FEW GUSTS 20+ KT POSSIBLE AT EAST COASTAL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING...DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

TONIGHT...
SKIES BECOME CLEAR ALONG WITH VFR VSBYS AS WINDS BECOME WNW.

SATURDAY...
VFR ALONG WITH A MODEST WEST WIND.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY BUT INCREASING TO HIGH
TONIGHT AND SAT.

KBDL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY BUT INCREASING TO HIGH
TONIGHT AND SAT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...GALE CENTER OVER GEORGES BANK DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF
FRI IS YIELDING N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WATERS. THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SLACKEN AND BECOME NNW THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE GALE CENTER TRACKS TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. VSBY 2 TO 4
MILES IN AREAS OF FOG AND SHOWERS THIS MORNING BUT IMPROVING THIS
AFTERNOON. STILL VERY ROUGH SEAS /12-16 FT/ ACROSS THE EASTERN MA
WATERS IN A COMBINATION OF ENE SWELLS AND NORTHERLY WIND WAVES.

TONIGHT...GALE CENTER NEAR NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUBSIDING WINDS AND SEAS.

SATURDAY...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS...YIELDING A MODEST WEST WIND BECOMING SW LATE IN
THE DAY. LEFTOVER NE SWELLS ACROSS THE EASTERN MA WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. W WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A FRONT WHICH
WILL CROSS EARLY SUN MORNING. THE WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE NW SUN
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-8 FT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25
TO 30 KT POSSIBLE. LOW CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD AS HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL OVER THE REGION.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ230-
     235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DOODY
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 240808
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
408 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM THAT BROUGHT STRONG WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINS TO THE REGION THU WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OUT TO
SEA TODAY. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL DRY UP
AND GIVE WAY TO JUST CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER
SATURDAY.BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY BUT BLUSTERY WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR
SUNDAY WITH WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING MORE
RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERTICALLY STACKED OCCLUDED LOW
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND OVER GEORGES BANK. ITS COMMA-HEAD/TROWAL RAINS
STRETCH FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO
MAINE/NH/MA/CT AND RI. THIS WARM/MOISTURE CONVEYOR BELT PRECIP
/ALBEIT LIGHT/ WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
AND SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THE AFTERNOON HOURS
SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...COMMA-HEAD CLOUDS WILL LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY
WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING/SUNSHINE POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNSET ACROSS
WESTERN CT/MA.

CLOUD COVER/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND NNW WINDS WILL PROVIDE COOL
WEATHER TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A
TEMP RISE WITH HIGHS TODAY ONLY ABOUT 5-8 DEGS AWAY FROM
CURRENT/PREDAWN TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...

CLOSED LOW OVER NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST. THIS
RESULTS IN CYCLONIC FLOW TRANSITIONING TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL YIELD CLEARING SKIES. A MODEST NW
WIND WILL PRECLUDE WINDS/BLYR FROM DECOUPLING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT.

SATURDAY...

APPEARS THE BETTER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS WEAK SHORT WAVE
RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND PROVIDES ENOUGH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE FOR MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. THIS COMBINED
WITH WNW WINDS WILL RESULT IN MILD CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS WELL INTO
THE 60S...SEVERAL DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH MAY SEE
TEMPS DROP A BIT LATE IN THE DAY AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST
OFF THE OCEAN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
* DRIER WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AROUND
* RAINY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
BOTH OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. AT WHICH
POINT THERE IS MORE DIVERGENCE DUE TO ISSUES REGARDING A MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE
E CONUS AND THE WRN ATLANTIC BY THAT PERIOD...THE SLOWER SOLUTION
/ONE FAVORED BY THE ECMWF AND SEVERAL GEFS/ECENS MEMBERS/ WILL BE
GIVEN MORE WEIGHT AT THIS TIME. THIS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH TUE NIGHT-WED MAY STALL CLOSE ENOUGH TO
SRN NEW ENGLAND FOR CONTINUED -SHRA ACTIVITY...BUT AT THIS
POINT...DRIER NW FLOW MAY DOMINATE SO USING ONLY SOME WEIGHT WILL
STILL LIKELY YIELD A MAINLY DRY FORECAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AFTER A ROBUST BUT FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT COMBINATION SLIDES THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN. THERE IS A TRANSITION TOWARD MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
NE...BUT UNDER BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. ASIDE FROM THE DRY WX AND SUBSIDENCE...THIS ALSO
SUGGESTS A WARMING TREND SUCH THAT TEMPS MAY REACH ABOVE NORMAL
TUE AND WED. A SECOND FRONT MOVES THROUGH MID WEEK FOLLOWED BY
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW DRY IT WILL BE GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT STALLS OFFSHORE.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...
A ROBUST SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW PRES
SLIDING THROUGH QUEBEC...DRAGGING A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. W FLOW AHEAD AND NW FLOW
BEHIND...WITHIN AN ALREADY DRY COLUMN SUGGESTS THAT THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS MAINLY DRY IN SPITE OF OF THE F-GEN APPARENT AND ACUITY
OF THE UPPER LVL WAVE. STILL...WILL BE ISSUING SOME SLIGHT TO
MAYBE EVEN LOW END CHANCE POPS GIVEN THIS LIFT POTENTIAL AND PWATS
ABOUT 0.75. OTHERWISE...FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AT LEAST
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FROPA GIVEN 35-45
KT WINDS BETWEEN H92 AND H85. CLOUDS SUGGEST OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. BLUSTERY NW FLOW ON SUN WITH GUSTS 20-3O
MPH AT TIMES POSSIBLE AND PLENTY OF COLD ADVECTION SC SUGGEST
HIGHS BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

MON AND TUE...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLIDING OVER THE REGION FROM THE SW...A WARM
FRONT MOVING INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC LATE MON NIGHT. SO EXPECT A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL MON...TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY TUE.

WED...
SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION AS LOW PRES
MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC. GIVEN THE INCREASING TEMPS AND DWPTS ALONG
WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES...LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE FOR WIDESPREAD -SHRA BUT MAYBE NOT ENOUGH FOR THUNDER
AT THIS POINT. COULD BE SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FROPA/SHOWERS AS
WELL GIVEN H92 WINDS APPROACHING 45 KT. STILL...ITS ENTERING
TERRITORY OF A BUILDING RIDGE...SO MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS
MESOSCALE COMPONENTS WOULD SUGGEST...BUT SOMETHING WORTH
WATCHING.

THU AND FRI...
ALTHOUGH BRIEF RIDGING IS LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THERE ARE SOME DISAGREEMENT AS GUIDANCE MAY ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP YET
ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW PRES BUT THIS TIME IN/NEAR NRN NEW ENGLAND. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES HERE WHICH WILL NEED
TO BE RESOLVED...BUT BRIEF HIGH PRES MAY GIVE WAY TO YET ANOTHER
COASTAL LOW PRES BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK DEPENDING ON WHERE
THE FRONT STALLS AND THE ULTIMATE DEPTH AND LOCATION OF THE UPPER
LVL CUTOFF. FOR NOW...NIL TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS YIELD THE
UNCERTAINTY ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY THEN
INCREASING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND SAT.

THRU 12Z...

NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH IFR OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND MVFR ELSEWHERE.
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST. MODEST N WINDS CONTINUE
OVER EASTERN MA.

AFTER 12Z...

SLOW IMPROVEMENT WITH SHOWERS DISSIPATING AND MOVING OFFSHORE.
ALSO CIGS AND VSBYS LIFTING TO MVFR AND VFR FROM WEST TO EAST. N
WINDS BECOMING MORE NNW WITH TIME.

TONIGHT...
SKIES BECOME CLEAR ALONG WITH VFR VSBYS AS WINDS BECOME WNW.

SATURDAY...

VFR ALONG WITH A MODEST WEST WIND.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY BUT INCREASING TO HIGH
TONIGHT AND SAT.

KBDL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY BUT INCREASING TO HIGH
TONIGHT AND SAT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...GALE CENTER OVER GEORGES BANK DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF
FRI IS YIELDING N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WATERS. THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SLACKEN AND BECOME NNW THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE GALE CENTER TRACKS TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. VSBY 2 TO 4
MILES IN AREAS OF FOG AND SHOWERS THIS MORNING BUT IMPROVING THIS
AFTERNOON. STILL VERY ROUGH SEAS /12-16 FT/ ACROSS THE EASTERN MA
WATERS IN A COMBINATION OF ENE SWELLS AND NORTHERLY WIND WAVES.

TONIGHT...GALE CENTER NEAR NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUBSIDING WINDS AND SEAS.

SATURDAY...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS...YIELDING A MODEST WEST WIND BECOMING SW LATE IN
THE DAY. LEFTOVER NE SWELLS ACROSS THE EASTERN MA WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. W WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A FRONT WHICH
WILL CROSS EARLY SUN MORNING. THE WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE NW SUN
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-8 FT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25
TO 30 KT POSSIBLE. LOW CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD AS HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL OVER THE REGION.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ230-
     235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 240808
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
408 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM THAT BROUGHT STRONG WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINS TO THE REGION THU WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OUT TO
SEA TODAY. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL DRY UP
AND GIVE WAY TO JUST CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER
SATURDAY.BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY BUT BLUSTERY WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR
SUNDAY WITH WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING MORE
RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERTICALLY STACKED OCCLUDED LOW
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND OVER GEORGES BANK. ITS COMMA-HEAD/TROWAL RAINS
STRETCH FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO
MAINE/NH/MA/CT AND RI. THIS WARM/MOISTURE CONVEYOR BELT PRECIP
/ALBEIT LIGHT/ WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
AND SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THE AFTERNOON HOURS
SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...COMMA-HEAD CLOUDS WILL LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY
WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING/SUNSHINE POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNSET ACROSS
WESTERN CT/MA.

CLOUD COVER/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND NNW WINDS WILL PROVIDE COOL
WEATHER TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A
TEMP RISE WITH HIGHS TODAY ONLY ABOUT 5-8 DEGS AWAY FROM
CURRENT/PREDAWN TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...

CLOSED LOW OVER NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST. THIS
RESULTS IN CYCLONIC FLOW TRANSITIONING TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL YIELD CLEARING SKIES. A MODEST NW
WIND WILL PRECLUDE WINDS/BLYR FROM DECOUPLING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT.

SATURDAY...

APPEARS THE BETTER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS WEAK SHORT WAVE
RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND PROVIDES ENOUGH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE FOR MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. THIS COMBINED
WITH WNW WINDS WILL RESULT IN MILD CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS WELL INTO
THE 60S...SEVERAL DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH MAY SEE
TEMPS DROP A BIT LATE IN THE DAY AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST
OFF THE OCEAN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
* DRIER WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AROUND
* RAINY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
BOTH OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. AT WHICH
POINT THERE IS MORE DIVERGENCE DUE TO ISSUES REGARDING A MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE
E CONUS AND THE WRN ATLANTIC BY THAT PERIOD...THE SLOWER SOLUTION
/ONE FAVORED BY THE ECMWF AND SEVERAL GEFS/ECENS MEMBERS/ WILL BE
GIVEN MORE WEIGHT AT THIS TIME. THIS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH TUE NIGHT-WED MAY STALL CLOSE ENOUGH TO
SRN NEW ENGLAND FOR CONTINUED -SHRA ACTIVITY...BUT AT THIS
POINT...DRIER NW FLOW MAY DOMINATE SO USING ONLY SOME WEIGHT WILL
STILL LIKELY YIELD A MAINLY DRY FORECAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...AFTER A ROBUST BUT FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT COMBINATION SLIDES THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN. THERE IS A TRANSITION TOWARD MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
NE...BUT UNDER BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. ASIDE FROM THE DRY WX AND SUBSIDENCE...THIS ALSO
SUGGESTS A WARMING TREND SUCH THAT TEMPS MAY REACH ABOVE NORMAL
TUE AND WED. A SECOND FRONT MOVES THROUGH MID WEEK FOLLOWED BY
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW DRY IT WILL BE GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT STALLS OFFSHORE.

DETAILS...

SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...
A ROBUST SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW PRES
SLIDING THROUGH QUEBEC...DRAGGING A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. W FLOW AHEAD AND NW FLOW
BEHIND...WITHIN AN ALREADY DRY COLUMN SUGGESTS THAT THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS MAINLY DRY IN SPITE OF OF THE F-GEN APPARENT AND ACUITY
OF THE UPPER LVL WAVE. STILL...WILL BE ISSUING SOME SLIGHT TO
MAYBE EVEN LOW END CHANCE POPS GIVEN THIS LIFT POTENTIAL AND PWATS
ABOUT 0.75. OTHERWISE...FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AT LEAST
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FROPA GIVEN 35-45
KT WINDS BETWEEN H92 AND H85. CLOUDS SUGGEST OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. BLUSTERY NW FLOW ON SUN WITH GUSTS 20-3O
MPH AT TIMES POSSIBLE AND PLENTY OF COLD ADVECTION SC SUGGEST
HIGHS BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

MON AND TUE...
HIGH PRES WILL BE SLIDING OVER THE REGION FROM THE SW...A WARM
FRONT MOVING INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC LATE MON NIGHT. SO EXPECT A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL MON...TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY TUE.

WED...
SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION AS LOW PRES
MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC. GIVEN THE INCREASING TEMPS AND DWPTS ALONG
WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES...LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE FOR WIDESPREAD -SHRA BUT MAYBE NOT ENOUGH FOR THUNDER
AT THIS POINT. COULD BE SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FROPA/SHOWERS AS
WELL GIVEN H92 WINDS APPROACHING 45 KT. STILL...ITS ENTERING
TERRITORY OF A BUILDING RIDGE...SO MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS
MESOSCALE COMPONENTS WOULD SUGGEST...BUT SOMETHING WORTH
WATCHING.

THU AND FRI...
ALTHOUGH BRIEF RIDGING IS LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THERE ARE SOME DISAGREEMENT AS GUIDANCE MAY ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP YET
ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW PRES BUT THIS TIME IN/NEAR NRN NEW ENGLAND. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES HERE WHICH WILL NEED
TO BE RESOLVED...BUT BRIEF HIGH PRES MAY GIVE WAY TO YET ANOTHER
COASTAL LOW PRES BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK DEPENDING ON WHERE
THE FRONT STALLS AND THE ULTIMATE DEPTH AND LOCATION OF THE UPPER
LVL CUTOFF. FOR NOW...NIL TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS YIELD THE
UNCERTAINTY ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY THEN
INCREASING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND SAT.

THRU 12Z...

NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH IFR OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND MVFR ELSEWHERE.
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST. MODEST N WINDS CONTINUE
OVER EASTERN MA.

AFTER 12Z...

SLOW IMPROVEMENT WITH SHOWERS DISSIPATING AND MOVING OFFSHORE.
ALSO CIGS AND VSBYS LIFTING TO MVFR AND VFR FROM WEST TO EAST. N
WINDS BECOMING MORE NNW WITH TIME.

TONIGHT...
SKIES BECOME CLEAR ALONG WITH VFR VSBYS AS WINDS BECOME WNW.

SATURDAY...

VFR ALONG WITH A MODEST WEST WIND.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY BUT INCREASING TO HIGH
TONIGHT AND SAT.

KBDL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY BUT INCREASING TO HIGH
TONIGHT AND SAT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...GALE CENTER OVER GEORGES BANK DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF
FRI IS YIELDING N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WATERS. THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SLACKEN AND BECOME NNW THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE GALE CENTER TRACKS TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. VSBY 2 TO 4
MILES IN AREAS OF FOG AND SHOWERS THIS MORNING BUT IMPROVING THIS
AFTERNOON. STILL VERY ROUGH SEAS /12-16 FT/ ACROSS THE EASTERN MA
WATERS IN A COMBINATION OF ENE SWELLS AND NORTHERLY WIND WAVES.

TONIGHT...GALE CENTER NEAR NOVA SCOTIA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUBSIDING WINDS AND SEAS.

SATURDAY...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS...YIELDING A MODEST WEST WIND BECOMING SW LATE IN
THE DAY. LEFTOVER NE SWELLS ACROSS THE EASTERN MA WATERS.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. W WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A FRONT WHICH
WILL CROSS EARLY SUN MORNING. THE WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE NW SUN
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-8 FT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25
TO 30 KT POSSIBLE. LOW CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD AS HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL OVER THE REGION.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234-250-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ230-
     235-237-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 240611
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
211 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM THAT BROUGHT STRONG WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINS TO THE REGION THU WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OUT TO
SEA TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS AND
A DRYING TREND THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDE
DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER SATURDAY. A QUICK MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL BRING THE RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT.
BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY BUT BLUSTERY WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING MORE RAIN LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

2 AM UPDATE...

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE CYCLONICALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM  THE OCCLUDED LOW OVER GEORGES BANK.
THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION THRU THE MORNING
HOURS. NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. PREVIOUS
FORECAST VERIFYING NICELY SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FRI AS LOW SLOWLY PULLS TOWARD MARITIMES. MAY
SEE FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS ESPECIALLY THU MORNING AND CLOSER TO
COAST. CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE LITTLE HOPE FOR SIGNIFICANT
CLEARING UNTIL FRI NIGHT...SO CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE UNTIL THEN...
ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS OF SUN ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.

STAYED CLOSE TO BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...WHICH GIVES
HIGHS IN 50S THU AND BACK INTO 40S THU NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
* DRIER WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AROUND
* RAINY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE

OVERVIEW...

THE PERIOD STARTS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH AROUND
ARIZONA AND TEXAS WITH TROUGHS FLANKING EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE IN
THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM TODAY EXITS THE
REGION TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY GIVING WAY TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT THAT MOVES WEST TO EAST...PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION.

THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH MOVES EAST MONDAY AND BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. ON THE BACK END OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM...SOUTHWEST WINDS PRECEDE ANOTHER COLD FRONT. DECENT
AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS THAT THE FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THIS LOOKS TO HAVE GOOD WIND DYNAMICS AND ABOVE
NORMAL PWATS FOR GOOD MOISTURE TRANSFER. DURING THIS
PERIOD...ENSEMBLES ARE HINTING AT THE AO BECOMING MORE AND MORE
POSITIVE WHICH WOULD ALSO IMPLY AT GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE
NORTHEAST US.

DAILIES...

SATURDAY...CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LEAVES
THE REGION AND WEAK RIDGING ARRIVES SO WE CAN EXPECT DRYING ON
NORTHWEST WINDS.

TOWARDS THE EVENING AND INTO SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE ARRIVES FROM
CENTRAL CANADA THAT SCOOTS WEST TO EAST JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.
THE COLD FRONT LOOKS WASHED OUT SO ONLY WEAK SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE. DECENT SHEAR EXISTS AND WIND GUSTS COULD BE AROUND 30 KTS
ESPECIALLY AS SHOWERS MIX THE 30 TO 35 KT 925 MB WINDS TO THE
SURFACE. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 7C/KM ESPECIALLY UP IN
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT ARRIVES...BUT CAPE IS
LOW SO THE THUNDER RISK IS LOW ENOUGH TO NOT BE INCLUDED IN
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON DRIES OUT ON THE ENCROACHING NORTHWEST WINDS AND
RISING HEIGHTS. WINDS ARE GUSTY STILL AS 30 KT WINDS ARE ABLE TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST AND IMPACTS THE
REGION. MONDAY LOOKS COLDER...MORE CLOUDY AND BREEZY THAN TUESDAY.
MONDAY/S HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND TUESDAY/S HIGH SHOULD
BE IN THE LOW 60S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL ARRIVE IN OUR
AREA WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT HAS PWATS FROM
1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FOR GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE AROUND SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE WATCHED.
SHOWALTER AND LIFTED INDICES ARE POSITIVE AND CAPE IS VERY LOW SO
THUNDER REMAINS TO BE SEEN AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER THE K-INDEX AND
TOTAL TOTALS INDEX ARE WHERE YOU WANT THEM TO BE FOR THUNDER.

IT IS ALSO INTERESTING THAT THE ECMWF HAS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT POSITIVELY THE WHOLE
TIME WITH THE CUTOFF LOW FARTHER SOUTH IN SOUTHEAST CANADA.
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGHS ARE HELPED ALONG BY STRONGER WINDS ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH...HOWEVER THE ECMWF HAS STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ON THE EASTERN SIDE WHICH WOULD MEAN A MORE POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH. THIS IS ALSO THE FIRST IN THE ECMWF/S MODEL RUNS THAT DOES
THIS. THIS TIMEFRAME IS STILL VERY FAR OUT AND WILL NEED FURTHER
IRONING BEFORE DETAILS ARE SMOOTHED OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY THEN
INCREASING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND SAT.

THRU 12Z...

NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH IFR OVER SOUTHEAST MA AND MVFR ELSEWHERE.
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST. MODEST N WINDS CONTINUE
OVER EASTERN MA.

AFTER 12Z...

SLOW IMPROVEMENT WITH SHOWERS DISSIPATING AND MOVING OFFSHORE.
ALSO CIGS AND VSBYS LIFTING TO MVFR AND VFR FROM WEST TO EAST. N
WINDS BECOMING MORE NNW WITH TIME.

TONIGHT...
SKIES BECOME CLEAR ALONG WITH VFR VSBYS AS WINDS BECOME WNW.

SATURDAY...

VFR ALONG WITH A MODEST WEST WIND.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY BUT INCREASING TO HIGH
TONIGHT AND SAT.

KBDL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF TODAY BUT INCREASING TO HIGH
TONIGHT AND SAT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW
PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

10 PM UPDATE...

INCREASED SEAS ACROSS THE EASTERN MA WATERS FROM STELLWAGON BANK
NORTHWARD. BUOYS REPORTING SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. ALSO REMOVED MENTION
OF THUNDER GIVEN RISK APPEARS VERY LOW. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

=================================================================

* CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE *

COASTAL STORM PASSES SE OF NANTUCKET THIS EVENING AND TO MARITIMES
THU AND THU NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS AND
ESPECIALLY SEAS...WHICH WILL TAKE A COUPLE OF DAYS TO SUBSIDE.

MAINTAINED GALE WARNINGS ON MOST WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS WE
EXPECT ANOTHER SURGE OF N GALES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THU.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...
ESPECIALLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE FEW LEFTOVER
SHOWERS THU MORNING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...AFTER A BRIEF
LULL...SEAS AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
WATERS AS THE WINDS RISE ABOVE 25 KTS AND THE SEAS HAVE 5-8 FT
SWELLS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD AS HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL OVER THE REGION.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ230-
     235-237-250-251-256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JWD
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...NOCERA/JWD
MARINE...NOCERA/JWD/GAF/99




000
FXUS61 KBOX 240200
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1000 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM THAT BROUGHT STRONG WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINS TO THE REGION THE PAST 24 HOURS WILL MOVE SLOWLY OUT
TO SEA TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS
AND NOT AS HEAVY. FRIDAY...THE STORM CONTINUES ITS SEAWARD TRACK
WITH MORNING DRIZZLE AND SHOWERS GIVING WAY TO A DRYING TREND IN
THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...THEN DRY WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING MORE RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

* CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH TONIGHT *

10 PM UPDATE...

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OCCLUDED/VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
CENTERED NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...WITH DEEP MOISTURE
PLUME/WARM CONVEYOR BELT WELL NORTH OF THE REGION ACROSS NOVA
SCOTIA AND MAINE. FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND 00Z
OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM CHATHAM MA INDICATES ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEFORE COLUMN BEGINS TO DRY ABOVE 800 MB. THIS MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW IS YIELDING SCATTERED LOW
TOP SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURES THESE
DETAILS NICELY SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. ONLY
MODIFICATION WAS TO REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDER AS FORCING FOR
ASCENT REMAINS WEAK OVERNIGHT AND MODEST INSTABILITY ALOFT MAY NOT
BE REALIZED GIVEN DRYING ALOFT. OTHERWISE FORECAST WILL REMAIN IN
TACT. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

================================================================

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DECIDED TO TRIM BACK WIND ADVISORY AND ONLY INCLUDE E MA COAST
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. STILL LOOKING FOR SECONDARY SURGE OF WINDS
ON BACKSIDE OF SURFACE LOW...BUT MODELS KEEP AXIS OF STRONGEST
WINDS CLOSER TO E MA COASTAL WATERS. DIRECTION IS MORE N/NW AS
WELL WHICH TYPICALLY DOES NOT FAVOR INLAND AREAS UNLESS THERE IS
STRONG COLD ADVECTION...WHICH WE DO NOT HAVE IN THIS CASE.
STRONGEST WINDS ON COAST STILL LOOK TO OCCUR THROUGH 7 OR 8 PM.

CYCLONIC FLOW AND LEFTOVER MOISTURE WILL KEEP CLOUDS LOCKED IN
TONIGHT ALONG WITH FEW SHOWERS. LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO 40S/50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FRI AS LOW SLOWLY PULLS TOWARD MARITIMES. MAY
SEE FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS ESPECIALLY THU MORNING AND CLOSER TO
COAST. CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE LITTLE HOPE FOR SIGNIFICANT
CLEARING UNTIL FRI NIGHT...SO CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE UNTIL THEN...
ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS OF SUN ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.

STAYED CLOSE TO BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...WHICH GIVES
HIGHS IN 50S THU AND BACK INTO 40S THU NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
* DRIER WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AROUND
* RAINY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE

OVERVIEW...

THE PERIOD STARTS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH AROUND
ARIZONA AND TEXAS WITH TROUGHS FLANKING EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE IN
THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM TODAY EXITS THE
REGION TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY GIVING WAY TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT THAT MOVES WEST TO EAST...PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION.

THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH MOVES EAST MONDAY AND BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. ON THE BACK END OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM...SOUTHWEST WINDS PRECEDE ANOTHER COLD FRONT. DECENT
AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS THAT THE FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THIS LOOKS TO HAVE GOOD WIND DYNAMICS AND ABOVE
NORMAL PWATS FOR GOOD MOISTURE TRANSFER. DURING THIS
PERIOD...ENSEMBLES ARE HINTING AT THE AO BECOMING MORE AND MORE
POSITIVE WHICH WOULD ALSO IMPLY AT GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE
NORTHEAST US.

DAILIES...

SATURDAY...CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LEAVES
THE REGION AND WEAK RIDGING ARRIVES SO WE CAN EXPECT DRYING ON
NORTHWEST WINDS.

TOWARDS THE EVENING AND INTO SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE ARRIVES FROM
CENTRAL CANADA THAT SCOOTS WEST TO EAST JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.
THE COLD FRONT LOOKS WASHED OUT SO ONLY WEAK SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE. DECENT SHEAR EXISTS AND WIND GUSTS COULD BE AROUND 30 KTS
ESPECIALLY AS SHOWERS MIX THE 30 TO 35 KT 925 MB WINDS TO THE
SURFACE. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 7C/KM ESPECIALLY UP IN
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT ARRIVES...BUT CAPE IS
LOW SO THE THUNDER RISK IS LOW ENOUGH TO NOT BE INCLUDED IN
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON DRIES OUT ON THE ENCROACHING NORTHWEST WINDS AND
RISING HEIGHTS. WINDS ARE GUSTY STILL AS 30 KT WINDS ARE ABLE TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST AND IMPACTS THE
REGION. MONDAY LOOKS COLDER...MORE CLOUDY AND BREEZY THAN TUESDAY.
MONDAY/S HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND TUESDAY/S HIGH SHOULD
BE IN THE LOW 60S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL ARRIVE IN OUR
AREA WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT HAS PWATS FROM
1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FOR GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE AROUND SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE WATCHED.
SHOWALTER AND LIFTED INDICES ARE POSITIVE AND CAPE IS VERY LOW SO
THUNDER REMAINS TO BE SEEN AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER THE K-INDEX AND
TOTAL TOTALS INDEX ARE WHERE YOU WANT THEM TO BE FOR THUNDER.

IT IS ALSO INTERESTING THAT THE ECMWF HAS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT POSITIVELY THE WHOLE
TIME WITH THE CUTOFF LOW FARTHER SOUTH IN SOUTHEAST CANADA.
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGHS ARE HELPED ALONG BY STRONGER WINDS ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH...HOWEVER THE ECMWF HAS STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ON THE EASTERN SIDE WHICH WOULD MEAN A MORE POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH. THIS IS ALSO THE FIRST IN THE ECMWF/S MODEL RUNS THAT DOES
THIS. THIS TIMEFRAME IS STILL VERY FAR OUT AND WILL NEED FURTHER
IRONING BEFORE DETAILS ARE SMOOTHED OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

10 PM UPDATE...

ONLY CHANGE TO 00Z TAFS WAS TO INCLUDE LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT FOR ACK TERMINAL. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==========================================================

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR
CIGS...ALTHOUGH VFR CIGS MORE LIKELY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS
AND POINTS OFFSHORE. SHOULD SEE RETURN TO IFR CIGS NEAR COAST
TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS FARTHER INLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDER MAINLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.

GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO 35KT ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST THROUGH 02Z.

SLOW IMPROVEMENT THU WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS IN MORNING GIVING WAY TO
VFR CIGS BY AFTERNOON FROM W TO E. VFR THU NIGHT AS CLEARING WORKS
INTO NEW ENGLAND.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOWER-END MVFR CIGS MOST
LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE CIGS DROP TO IFR TONIGHT.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW
PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

10 PM UPDATE...

INCREASED SEAS ACROSS THE EASTERN MA WATERS FROM STELLWAGON BANK
NORTHWARD. BUOYS REPORTING SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. ALSO REMOVED MENTION
OF THUNDER GIVEN RISK APPEARS VERY LOW. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

=================================================================

* CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE *

COASTAL STORM PASSES SE OF NANTUCKET THIS EVENING AND TO MARITIMES
THU AND THU NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS AND
ESPECIALLY SEAS...WHICH WILL TAKE A COUPLE OF DAYS TO SUBSIDE.

MAINTAINED GALE WARNINGS ON MOST WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS WE
EXPECT ANOTHER SURGE OF N GALES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THU.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...
ESPECIALLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE FEW LEFTOVER
SHOWERS THU MORNING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...AFTER A BRIEF
LULL...SEAS AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
WATERS AS THE WINDS RISE ABOVE 25 KTS AND THE SEAS HAVE 5-8 FT
SWELLS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD AS HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
STILL HAVE A FEW FLOOD WARNINGS POSTED...PRIMARILY FOR RESIDUAL
FLOODING NOW THAT MOST SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS HAVE CRESTED.
LARGER MAINSTEM RIVERS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN THEIR BANKS.

SIGNIFICANT URBAN FLOODING THAT AFFECTED PEABODY MA WILL GRADUALLY
EASE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...DESPITE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
NEXT HIGH TIDE ALONG E MA COAST IS AROUND MIDNIGHT. DUE TO WINDS
BEING MORE NORTHERLY AS OPPOSED TO ONSHORE...IMPACT WILL BE MUCH
LESS THAN PREVIOUS HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SURGE BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1.0 FT
IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG N SHORE OF CAPE COD ON CAPE COD
BAY...BUT WE ARE ONLY ANTICIPATING SOME SPLASHOVER AND MINOR
BEACH EROSION AT THIS TIME. DO NOT BELIEVE IT WILL REACH AN
ADVISORY LEVEL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ007-014>016-
     019.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-250-251-
     256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JWD
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...NOCERA/JWD/GAF/99
MARINE...NOCERA/JWD/GAF/99
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 240200
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1000 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM THAT BROUGHT STRONG WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINS TO THE REGION THE PAST 24 HOURS WILL MOVE SLOWLY OUT
TO SEA TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS
AND NOT AS HEAVY. FRIDAY...THE STORM CONTINUES ITS SEAWARD TRACK
WITH MORNING DRIZZLE AND SHOWERS GIVING WAY TO A DRYING TREND IN
THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...THEN DRY WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING MORE RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

* CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH TONIGHT *

10 PM UPDATE...

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OCCLUDED/VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
CENTERED NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK...WITH DEEP MOISTURE
PLUME/WARM CONVEYOR BELT WELL NORTH OF THE REGION ACROSS NOVA
SCOTIA AND MAINE. FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND 00Z
OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM CHATHAM MA INDICATES ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BEFORE COLUMN BEGINS TO DRY ABOVE 800 MB. THIS MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW IS YIELDING SCATTERED LOW
TOP SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURES THESE
DETAILS NICELY SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. ONLY
MODIFICATION WAS TO REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDER AS FORCING FOR
ASCENT REMAINS WEAK OVERNIGHT AND MODEST INSTABILITY ALOFT MAY NOT
BE REALIZED GIVEN DRYING ALOFT. OTHERWISE FORECAST WILL REMAIN IN
TACT. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

================================================================

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DECIDED TO TRIM BACK WIND ADVISORY AND ONLY INCLUDE E MA COAST
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. STILL LOOKING FOR SECONDARY SURGE OF WINDS
ON BACKSIDE OF SURFACE LOW...BUT MODELS KEEP AXIS OF STRONGEST
WINDS CLOSER TO E MA COASTAL WATERS. DIRECTION IS MORE N/NW AS
WELL WHICH TYPICALLY DOES NOT FAVOR INLAND AREAS UNLESS THERE IS
STRONG COLD ADVECTION...WHICH WE DO NOT HAVE IN THIS CASE.
STRONGEST WINDS ON COAST STILL LOOK TO OCCUR THROUGH 7 OR 8 PM.

CYCLONIC FLOW AND LEFTOVER MOISTURE WILL KEEP CLOUDS LOCKED IN
TONIGHT ALONG WITH FEW SHOWERS. LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO 40S/50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FRI AS LOW SLOWLY PULLS TOWARD MARITIMES. MAY
SEE FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS ESPECIALLY THU MORNING AND CLOSER TO
COAST. CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE LITTLE HOPE FOR SIGNIFICANT
CLEARING UNTIL FRI NIGHT...SO CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE UNTIL THEN...
ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS OF SUN ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.

STAYED CLOSE TO BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...WHICH GIVES
HIGHS IN 50S THU AND BACK INTO 40S THU NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
* DRIER WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AROUND
* RAINY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE

OVERVIEW...

THE PERIOD STARTS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH AROUND
ARIZONA AND TEXAS WITH TROUGHS FLANKING EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE IN
THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM TODAY EXITS THE
REGION TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY GIVING WAY TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT THAT MOVES WEST TO EAST...PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION.

THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH MOVES EAST MONDAY AND BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. ON THE BACK END OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM...SOUTHWEST WINDS PRECEDE ANOTHER COLD FRONT. DECENT
AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS THAT THE FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THIS LOOKS TO HAVE GOOD WIND DYNAMICS AND ABOVE
NORMAL PWATS FOR GOOD MOISTURE TRANSFER. DURING THIS
PERIOD...ENSEMBLES ARE HINTING AT THE AO BECOMING MORE AND MORE
POSITIVE WHICH WOULD ALSO IMPLY AT GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE
NORTHEAST US.

DAILIES...

SATURDAY...CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LEAVES
THE REGION AND WEAK RIDGING ARRIVES SO WE CAN EXPECT DRYING ON
NORTHWEST WINDS.

TOWARDS THE EVENING AND INTO SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE ARRIVES FROM
CENTRAL CANADA THAT SCOOTS WEST TO EAST JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.
THE COLD FRONT LOOKS WASHED OUT SO ONLY WEAK SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE. DECENT SHEAR EXISTS AND WIND GUSTS COULD BE AROUND 30 KTS
ESPECIALLY AS SHOWERS MIX THE 30 TO 35 KT 925 MB WINDS TO THE
SURFACE. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 7C/KM ESPECIALLY UP IN
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT ARRIVES...BUT CAPE IS
LOW SO THE THUNDER RISK IS LOW ENOUGH TO NOT BE INCLUDED IN
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON DRIES OUT ON THE ENCROACHING NORTHWEST WINDS AND
RISING HEIGHTS. WINDS ARE GUSTY STILL AS 30 KT WINDS ARE ABLE TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST AND IMPACTS THE
REGION. MONDAY LOOKS COLDER...MORE CLOUDY AND BREEZY THAN TUESDAY.
MONDAY/S HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND TUESDAY/S HIGH SHOULD
BE IN THE LOW 60S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL ARRIVE IN OUR
AREA WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT HAS PWATS FROM
1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FOR GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE AROUND SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE WATCHED.
SHOWALTER AND LIFTED INDICES ARE POSITIVE AND CAPE IS VERY LOW SO
THUNDER REMAINS TO BE SEEN AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER THE K-INDEX AND
TOTAL TOTALS INDEX ARE WHERE YOU WANT THEM TO BE FOR THUNDER.

IT IS ALSO INTERESTING THAT THE ECMWF HAS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT POSITIVELY THE WHOLE
TIME WITH THE CUTOFF LOW FARTHER SOUTH IN SOUTHEAST CANADA.
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGHS ARE HELPED ALONG BY STRONGER WINDS ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH...HOWEVER THE ECMWF HAS STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ON THE EASTERN SIDE WHICH WOULD MEAN A MORE POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH. THIS IS ALSO THE FIRST IN THE ECMWF/S MODEL RUNS THAT DOES
THIS. THIS TIMEFRAME IS STILL VERY FAR OUT AND WILL NEED FURTHER
IRONING BEFORE DETAILS ARE SMOOTHED OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

10 PM UPDATE...

ONLY CHANGE TO 00Z TAFS WAS TO INCLUDE LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT FOR ACK TERMINAL. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==========================================================

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR
CIGS...ALTHOUGH VFR CIGS MORE LIKELY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS
AND POINTS OFFSHORE. SHOULD SEE RETURN TO IFR CIGS NEAR COAST
TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS FARTHER INLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDER MAINLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.

GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO 35KT ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST THROUGH 02Z.

SLOW IMPROVEMENT THU WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS IN MORNING GIVING WAY TO
VFR CIGS BY AFTERNOON FROM W TO E. VFR THU NIGHT AS CLEARING WORKS
INTO NEW ENGLAND.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOWER-END MVFR CIGS MOST
LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE CIGS DROP TO IFR TONIGHT.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW
PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

10 PM UPDATE...

INCREASED SEAS ACROSS THE EASTERN MA WATERS FROM STELLWAGON BANK
NORTHWARD. BUOYS REPORTING SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. ALSO REMOVED MENTION
OF THUNDER GIVEN RISK APPEARS VERY LOW. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

=================================================================

* CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE *

COASTAL STORM PASSES SE OF NANTUCKET THIS EVENING AND TO MARITIMES
THU AND THU NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS AND
ESPECIALLY SEAS...WHICH WILL TAKE A COUPLE OF DAYS TO SUBSIDE.

MAINTAINED GALE WARNINGS ON MOST WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS WE
EXPECT ANOTHER SURGE OF N GALES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THU.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...
ESPECIALLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE FEW LEFTOVER
SHOWERS THU MORNING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...AFTER A BRIEF
LULL...SEAS AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
WATERS AS THE WINDS RISE ABOVE 25 KTS AND THE SEAS HAVE 5-8 FT
SWELLS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD AS HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
STILL HAVE A FEW FLOOD WARNINGS POSTED...PRIMARILY FOR RESIDUAL
FLOODING NOW THAT MOST SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS HAVE CRESTED.
LARGER MAINSTEM RIVERS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN THEIR BANKS.

SIGNIFICANT URBAN FLOODING THAT AFFECTED PEABODY MA WILL GRADUALLY
EASE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...DESPITE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
NEXT HIGH TIDE ALONG E MA COAST IS AROUND MIDNIGHT. DUE TO WINDS
BEING MORE NORTHERLY AS OPPOSED TO ONSHORE...IMPACT WILL BE MUCH
LESS THAN PREVIOUS HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SURGE BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1.0 FT
IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG N SHORE OF CAPE COD ON CAPE COD
BAY...BUT WE ARE ONLY ANTICIPATING SOME SPLASHOVER AND MINOR
BEACH EROSION AT THIS TIME. DO NOT BELIEVE IT WILL REACH AN
ADVISORY LEVEL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ007-014>016-
     019.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-250-251-
     256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JWD
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...NOCERA/JWD/GAF/99
MARINE...NOCERA/JWD/GAF/99
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 232316
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
716 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE DIMINISHING FRIDAY...AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM
NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...THEN DRY WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING MORE RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
* CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH TONIGHT *

715 PM UPDATE...
BANDS OF SHOWERS CONTINUED TO ROTATE CYCLONICALLY ACROSS MAINLY
EASTERN MA AND RI...WITH ANOTHER CLUSTER IN THE SLOPES OF THE
BERKSHIRES. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS CONTINUED IN THESE BANDS
OF SHOWERS. IT WAS STILL QUITE GUSTY IN THE EAST WITH WINDS
GUSTING PAST 35 MPH RIGHT AT THE COAST. TRIMMED BACK POPS FOR THIS
EVENING A BIT OVER CT AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL MA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DECIDED TO TRIM BACK WIND ADVISORY AND ONLY INCLUDE E MA COAST
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. STILL LOOKING FOR SECONDARY SURGE OF WINDS
ON BACKSIDE OF SURFACE LOW...BUT MODELS KEEP AXIS OF STRONGEST
WINDS CLOSER TO E MA COASTAL WATERS. DIRECTION IS MORE N/NW AS
WELL WHICH TYPICALLY DOES NOT FAVOR INLAND AREAS UNLESS THERE IS
STRONG COLD ADVECTION...WHICH WE DO NOT HAVE IN THIS CASE.
STRONGEST WINDS ON COAST STILL LOOK TO OCCUR THROUGH 7 OR 8 PM.

CYCLONIC FLOW AND LEFTOVER MOISTURE WILL KEEP CLOUDS LOCKED IN
TONIGHT ALONG WITH FEW SHOWERS. LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO 40S/50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FRI AS LOW SLOWLY PULLS TOWARD MARITIMES. MAY
SEE FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS ESPECIALLY THU MORNING AND CLOSER TO
COAST. CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE LITTLE HOPE FOR SIGNIFICANT
CLEARING UNTIL FRI NIGHT...SO CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE UNTIL THEN...
ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS OF SUN ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.

STAYED CLOSE TO BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...WHICH GIVES
HIGHS IN 50S THU AND BACK INTO 40S THU NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
* DRIER WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AROUND
* RAINY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE

OVERVIEW...

THE PERIOD STARTS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH AROUND
ARIZONA AND TEXAS WITH TROUGHS FLANKING EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE IN
THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM TODAY EXITS THE
REGION TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY GIVING WAY TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT THAT MOVES WEST TO EAST...PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION.

THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH MOVES EAST MONDAY AND BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. ON THE BACK END OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM...SOUTHWEST WINDS PRECEDE ANOTHER COLD FRONT. DECENT
AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS THAT THE FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THIS LOOKS TO HAVE GOOD WIND DYNAMICS AND ABOVE
NORMAL PWATS FOR GOOD MOISTURE TRANSFER. DURING THIS
PERIOD...ENSEMBLES ARE HINTING AT THE AO BECOMING MORE AND MORE
POSITIVE WHICH WOULD ALSO IMPLY AT GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE
NORTHEAST US.

DAILIES...

SATURDAY...CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LEAVES
THE REGION AND WEAK RIDGING ARRIVES SO WE CAN EXPECT DRYING ON
NORTHWEST WINDS.

TOWARDS THE EVENING AND INTO SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE ARRIVES FROM
CENTRAL CANADA THAT SCOOTS WEST TO EAST JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.
THE COLD FRONT LOOKS WASHED OUT SO ONLY WEAK SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE. DECENT SHEAR EXISTS AND WIND GUSTS COULD BE AROUND 30 KTS
ESPECIALLY AS SHOWERS MIX THE 30 TO 35 KT 925 MB WINDS TO THE
SURFACE. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 7C/KM ESPECIALLY UP IN
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT ARRIVES...BUT CAPE IS
LOW SO THE THUNDER RISK IS LOW ENOUGH TO NOT BE INCLUDED IN
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON DRIES OUT ON THE ENCROACHING NORTHWEST WINDS AND
RISING HEIGHTS. WINDS ARE GUSTY STILL AS 30 KT WINDS ARE ABLE TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST AND IMPACTS THE
REGION. MONDAY LOOKS COLDER...MORE CLOUDY AND BREEZY THAN TUESDAY.
MONDAY/S HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND TUESDAY/S HIGH SHOULD
BE IN THE LOW 60S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL ARRIVE IN OUR
AREA WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT HAS PWATS FROM
1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FOR GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE AROUND SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE WATCHED.
SHOWALTER AND LIFTED INDICES ARE POSITIVE AND CAPE IS VERY LOW SO
THUNDER REMAINS TO BE SEEN AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER THE K-INDEX AND
TOTAL TOTALS INDEX ARE WHERE YOU WANT THEM TO BE FOR THUNDER.

IT IS ALSO INTERESTING THAT THE ECMWF HAS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT POSITIVELY THE WHOLE
TIME WITH THE CUTOFF LOW FARTHER SOUTH IN SOUTHEAST CANADA.
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGHS ARE HELPED ALONG BY STRONGER WINDS ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH...HOWEVER THE ECMWF HAS STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ON THE EASTERN SIDE WHICH WOULD MEAN A MORE POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH. THIS IS ALSO THE FIRST IN THE ECMWF/S MODEL RUNS THAT DOES
THIS. THIS TIMEFRAME IS STILL VERY FAR OUT AND WILL NEED FURTHER
IRONING BEFORE DETAILS ARE SMOOTHED OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR
CIGS...ALTHOUGH VFR CIGS MORE LIKELY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS
AND POINTS OFFSHORE. SHOULD SEE RETURN TO IFR CIGS NEAR COAST
TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS FARTHER INLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDER MAINLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.

GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO 35KT ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST THROUGH 02Z.

SLOW IMPROVEMENT THU WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS IN MORNING GIVING WAY TO
VFR CIGS BY AFTERNOON FROM W TO E. VFR THU NIGHT AS CLEARING WORKS
INTO NEW ENGLAND.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOWER-END MVFR CIGS MOST
LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE CIGS DROP TO IFR TONIGHT.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW
PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

* CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE *

COASTAL STORM PASSES SE OF NANTUCKET THIS EVENING AND TO MARITIMES
THU AND THU NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS AND
ESPECIALLY SEAS...WHICH WILL TAKE A COUPLE OF DAYS TO SUBSIDE.

MAINTAINED GALE WARNINGS ON MOST WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS WE
EXPECT ANOTHER SURGE OF N GALES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THU.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...
ESPECIALLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE FEW LEFTOVER
SHOWERS THU MORNING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...AFTER A BRIEF
LULL...SEAS AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
WATERS AS THE WINDS RISE ABOVE 25 KTS AND THE SEAS HAVE 5-8 FT
SWELLS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD AS HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
STILL HAVE A FEW FLOOD WARNINGS POSTED...PRIMARILY FOR RESIDUAL
FLOODING NOW THAT MOST SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS HAVE CRESTED.
LARGER MAINSTEM RIVERS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN THEIR BANKS.

SIGNIFICANT URBAN FLOODING THAT AFFECTED PEABODY MA WILL GRADUALLY
EASE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...DESPITE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
NEXT HIGH TIDE ALONG E MA COAST IS AROUND MIDNIGHT. DUE TO WINDS
BEING MORE NORTHERLY AS OPPOSED TO ONSHORE...IMPACT WILL BE MUCH
LESS THAN PREVIOUS HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SURGE BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1.0 FT
IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG N SHORE OF CAPE COD ON CAPE COD
BAY...BUT WE ARE ONLY ANTICIPATING SOME SPLASHOVER AND MINOR
BEACH EROSION AT THIS TIME. DO NOT BELIEVE IT WILL REACH AN
ADVISORY LEVEL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ007-014>016-
     019.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-250-251-
     256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD/GAF
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...HR/GAF
AVIATION...JWD/GAF/HR
MARINE...JWD/GAF/HR
HYDROLOGY...JWD/FRANK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JWD




000
FXUS61 KBOX 231918
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
318 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE DIMINISHING FRIDAY...AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM
NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...THEN DRY WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING MORE RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
* CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH TONIGHT *

315 PM UPDATE...

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS MAIN BAND OF HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE HAS SHIFTED INTO EASTERN NY AND
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND...AND HAS BECOME FRAGMENTED AS IT OUTRUNS
BETTER SUPPORT.

IN ITS WAKE MORE SHOWERS WERE ROTATING WESTWARD ONTO COAST AROUND
UPPER LOW WHICH WAS LOCATED S OF NEW ENGLAND. HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE
A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER ACROSS
EASTERN MA...ESPECIALLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WHERE THERE
ARE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF ML/MUCAPE. SEEING PLENTY OF BREAKS IN
CLOUDS ON SATELLITE SE OF NANTUCKET WITH BUILDING CLOUDS/
CONVECTION FARTHER SE...WHICH SHOULD CLIP SE NEW ENGLAND THIS
EVENING.

NOT LOOKING FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER...BUT HIGHER CORES COULD
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS BRIEF DOWNPOURS. THIS
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY BUT WILL NOT LAST LONG AT
A GIVEN LOCATION...SO THREAT OF RENEWED FLOODING REMAINS LOW.

ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS LOW PASSES SE OF NEW
ENGLAND.

DECIDED TO TRIM BACK WIND ADVISORY AND ONLY INCLUDE E MA COAST
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. STILL LOOKING FOR SECONDARY SURGE OF WINDS
ON BACKSIDE OF SURFACE LOW...BUT MODELS KEEP AXIS OF STRONGEST
WINDS CLOSER TO E MA COASTAL WATERS. DIRECTION IS MORE N/NW AS
WELL WHICH TYPICALLY DOES NOT FAVOR INLAND AREAS UNLESS THERE IS
STRONG COLD ADVECTION...WHICH WE DO NOT HAVE IN THIS CASE.
STRONGEST WINDS ON COAST STILL LOOK TO OCCUR THROUGH 7 OR 8 PM.

CYCLONIC FLOW AND LEFTOVER MOISTURE WILL KEEP CLOUDS LOCKED IN
TONIGHT ALONG WITH FEW SHOWERS. LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO 40S/50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FRI AS LOW SLOWLY PULLS TOWARD MARITIMES. MAY
SEE FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS ESPECIALLY THU MORNING AND CLOSER TO
COAST. CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE LITTLE HOPE FOR SIGNIFICANT
CLEARING UNTIL FRI NIGHT...SO CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE UNTIL THEN...
ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS OF SUN ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.

STAYED CLOSE TO BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...WHICH GIVES
HIGHS IN 50S THU AND BACK INTO 40S THU NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
* DRIER WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AROUND
* RAINY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE

OVERVIEW...

THE PERIOD STARTS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH AROUND
ARIZONA AND TEXAS WITH TROUGHS FLANKING EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE IN
THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM TODAY EXITS THE
REGION TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY GIVING WAY TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT THAT MOVES WEST TO EAST...PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION.

THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH MOVES EAST MONDAY AND BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. ON THE BACK END OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM...SOUTHWEST WINDS PRECEDE ANOTHER COLD FRONT. DECENT
AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS THAT THE FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THIS LOOKS TO HAVE GOOD WIND DYNAMICS AND ABOVE
NORMAL PWATS FOR GOOD MOISTURE TRANSFER. DURING THIS
PERIOD...ENSEMBLES ARE HINTING AT THE AO BECOMING MORE AND MORE
POSITIVE WHICH WOULD ALSO IMPLY AT GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE
NORTHEAST US.

DAILIES...

SATURDAY...CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LEAVES
THE REGION AND WEAK RIDGING ARRIVES SO WE CAN EXPECT DRYING ON
NORTHWEST WINDS.

TOWARDS THE EVENING AND INTO SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE ARRIVES FROM
CENTRAL CANADA THAT SCOOTS WEST TO EAST JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.
THE COLD FRONT LOOKS WASHED OUT SO ONLY WEAK SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE. DECENT SHEAR EXISTS AND WIND GUSTS COULD BE AROUND 30 KTS
ESPECIALLY AS SHOWERS MIX THE 30 TO 35 KT 925 MB WINDS TO THE
SURFACE. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 7C/KM ESPECIALLY UP IN
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT ARRIVES...BUT CAPE IS
LOW SO THE THUNDER RISK IS LOW ENOUGH TO NOT BE INCLUDED IN
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON DRIES OUT ON THE ENCROACHING NORTHWEST WINDS AND
RISING HEIGHTS. WINDS ARE GUSTY STILL AS 30 KT WINDS ARE ABLE TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST AND IMPACTS THE
REGION. MONDAY LOOKS COLDER...MORE CLOUDY AND BREEZY THAN TUESDAY.
MONDAY/S HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND TUESDAY/S HIGH SHOULD
BE IN THE LOW 60S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL ARRIVE IN OUR
AREA WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT HAS PWATS FROM
1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FOR GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE AROUND SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE WATCHED.
SHOWALTER AND LIFTED INDICES ARE POSITIVE AND CAPE IS VERY LOW SO
THUNDER REMAINS TO BE SEEN AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER THE K-INDEX AND
TOTAL TOTALS INDEX ARE WHERE YOU WANT THEM TO BE FOR THUNDER.

IT IS ALSO INTERESTING THAT THE ECMWF HAS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT POSITIVELY THE WHOLE
TIME WITH THE CUTOFF LOW FARTHER SOUTH IN SOUTHEAST CANADA.
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGHS ARE HELPED ALONG BY STRONGER WINDS ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH...HOWEVER THE ECMWF HAS STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ON THE EASTERN SIDE WHICH WOULD MEAN A MORE POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH. THIS IS ALSO THE FIRST IN THE ECMWF/S MODEL RUNS THAT DOES
THIS. THIS TIMEFRAME IS STILL VERY FAR OUT AND WILL NEED FURTHER
IRONING BEFORE DETAILS ARE SMOOTHED OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR
CIGS...ALTHOUGH VFR CIGS MORE LIKELY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS
AND POINTS OFFSHORE. SHOULD SEE RETURN TO IFR CIGS NEAR COAST
TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS FARTHER INLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDER MAINLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.

GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO 35KT ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST THROUGH 00Z.

SLOW IMPROVEMENT THU WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS IN MORNING GIVING WAY TO
VFR CIGS BY AFTERNOON FROM W TO E. VFR THU NIGHT AS CLEARING WORKS
INTO NEW ENGLAND.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOWER-END MVFR CIGS MOST
LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE CIGS DROP TO IFR TONIGHT.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW
PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

* CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE *

COASTAL STORM PASSES SE OF NANTUCKET THIS EVENING AND TO MARITIMES
THU AND THU NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS AND
ESPECIALLY SEAS...WHICH WILL TAKE A COUPLE OF DAYS TO SUBSIDE.

MAINTAINED GALE WARNINGS ON MOST WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS WE
EXPECT ANOTHER SURGE OF N GALES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THU.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...
ESPECIALLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE FEW LEFTOVER
SHOWERS THU MORNING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...AFTER A BRIEF
LULL...SEAS AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
WATERS AS THE WINDS RISE ABOVE 25 KTS AND THE SEAS HAVE 5-8 FT
SWELLS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD AS HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
STILL HAVE A FEW FLOOD WARNINGS POSTED...PRIMARILY FOR RESIDUAL
FLOODING NOW THAT MOST SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS HAVE CRESTED.
LARGER MAINSTEM RIVERS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN THEIR BANKS.

SIGNIFICANT URBAN FLOODING THAT AFFECTED PEABODY MA WILL GRADUALLY
EASE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...DESPITE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
NEXT HIGH TIDE ALONG E MA COAST IS AROUND MIDNIGHT. DUE TO WINDS
BEING MORE NORTHERLY AS OPPOSED TO ONSHORE...IMPACT WILL BE MUCH
LESS THAN PREVIOUS HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SURGE BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1.0 FT
IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG N SHORE OF CAPE COD ON CAPE COD
BAY...BUT WE ARE ONLY ANTICIPATING SOME SPLASHOVER AND MINOR
BEACH EROSION AT THIS TIME. DO NOT BELIEVE IT WILL REACH AN
ADVISORY LEVEL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ007-014>016-
     019.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-250-251-
     256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...HR/FIELD
AVIATION...JWD/HR/FIELD
MARINE...JWD/HR/FIELD
HYDROLOGY...JWD/FRANK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JWD




000
FXUS61 KBOX 231918
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
318 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE DIMINISHING FRIDAY...AS THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM
NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...THEN DRY WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT MAY BRING MORE RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
* CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH TONIGHT *

315 PM UPDATE...

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS MAIN BAND OF HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE HAS SHIFTED INTO EASTERN NY AND
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND...AND HAS BECOME FRAGMENTED AS IT OUTRUNS
BETTER SUPPORT.

IN ITS WAKE MORE SHOWERS WERE ROTATING WESTWARD ONTO COAST AROUND
UPPER LOW WHICH WAS LOCATED S OF NEW ENGLAND. HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE
A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER ACROSS
EASTERN MA...ESPECIALLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WHERE THERE
ARE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF ML/MUCAPE. SEEING PLENTY OF BREAKS IN
CLOUDS ON SATELLITE SE OF NANTUCKET WITH BUILDING CLOUDS/
CONVECTION FARTHER SE...WHICH SHOULD CLIP SE NEW ENGLAND THIS
EVENING.

NOT LOOKING FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER...BUT HIGHER CORES COULD
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS BRIEF DOWNPOURS. THIS
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY BUT WILL NOT LAST LONG AT
A GIVEN LOCATION...SO THREAT OF RENEWED FLOODING REMAINS LOW.

ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS LOW PASSES SE OF NEW
ENGLAND.

DECIDED TO TRIM BACK WIND ADVISORY AND ONLY INCLUDE E MA COAST
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. STILL LOOKING FOR SECONDARY SURGE OF WINDS
ON BACKSIDE OF SURFACE LOW...BUT MODELS KEEP AXIS OF STRONGEST
WINDS CLOSER TO E MA COASTAL WATERS. DIRECTION IS MORE N/NW AS
WELL WHICH TYPICALLY DOES NOT FAVOR INLAND AREAS UNLESS THERE IS
STRONG COLD ADVECTION...WHICH WE DO NOT HAVE IN THIS CASE.
STRONGEST WINDS ON COAST STILL LOOK TO OCCUR THROUGH 7 OR 8 PM.

CYCLONIC FLOW AND LEFTOVER MOISTURE WILL KEEP CLOUDS LOCKED IN
TONIGHT ALONG WITH FEW SHOWERS. LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO 40S/50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FRI AS LOW SLOWLY PULLS TOWARD MARITIMES. MAY
SEE FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS ESPECIALLY THU MORNING AND CLOSER TO
COAST. CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE LITTLE HOPE FOR SIGNIFICANT
CLEARING UNTIL FRI NIGHT...SO CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE UNTIL THEN...
ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS OF SUN ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.

STAYED CLOSE TO BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...WHICH GIVES
HIGHS IN 50S THU AND BACK INTO 40S THU NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
* DRIER WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AROUND
* RAINY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE

OVERVIEW...

THE PERIOD STARTS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH AROUND
ARIZONA AND TEXAS WITH TROUGHS FLANKING EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE IN
THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM TODAY EXITS THE
REGION TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY GIVING WAY TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT THAT MOVES WEST TO EAST...PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION.

THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH MOVES EAST MONDAY AND BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. ON THE BACK END OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM...SOUTHWEST WINDS PRECEDE ANOTHER COLD FRONT. DECENT
AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS THAT THE FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THIS LOOKS TO HAVE GOOD WIND DYNAMICS AND ABOVE
NORMAL PWATS FOR GOOD MOISTURE TRANSFER. DURING THIS
PERIOD...ENSEMBLES ARE HINTING AT THE AO BECOMING MORE AND MORE
POSITIVE WHICH WOULD ALSO IMPLY AT GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE
NORTHEAST US.

DAILIES...

SATURDAY...CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LEAVES
THE REGION AND WEAK RIDGING ARRIVES SO WE CAN EXPECT DRYING ON
NORTHWEST WINDS.

TOWARDS THE EVENING AND INTO SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE ARRIVES FROM
CENTRAL CANADA THAT SCOOTS WEST TO EAST JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.
THE COLD FRONT LOOKS WASHED OUT SO ONLY WEAK SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE. DECENT SHEAR EXISTS AND WIND GUSTS COULD BE AROUND 30 KTS
ESPECIALLY AS SHOWERS MIX THE 30 TO 35 KT 925 MB WINDS TO THE
SURFACE. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 7C/KM ESPECIALLY UP IN
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT ARRIVES...BUT CAPE IS
LOW SO THE THUNDER RISK IS LOW ENOUGH TO NOT BE INCLUDED IN
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON DRIES OUT ON THE ENCROACHING NORTHWEST WINDS AND
RISING HEIGHTS. WINDS ARE GUSTY STILL AS 30 KT WINDS ARE ABLE TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST AND IMPACTS THE
REGION. MONDAY LOOKS COLDER...MORE CLOUDY AND BREEZY THAN TUESDAY.
MONDAY/S HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND TUESDAY/S HIGH SHOULD
BE IN THE LOW 60S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL ARRIVE IN OUR
AREA WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT HAS PWATS FROM
1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FOR GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE AROUND SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE WATCHED.
SHOWALTER AND LIFTED INDICES ARE POSITIVE AND CAPE IS VERY LOW SO
THUNDER REMAINS TO BE SEEN AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER THE K-INDEX AND
TOTAL TOTALS INDEX ARE WHERE YOU WANT THEM TO BE FOR THUNDER.

IT IS ALSO INTERESTING THAT THE ECMWF HAS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT POSITIVELY THE WHOLE
TIME WITH THE CUTOFF LOW FARTHER SOUTH IN SOUTHEAST CANADA.
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGHS ARE HELPED ALONG BY STRONGER WINDS ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH...HOWEVER THE ECMWF HAS STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ON THE EASTERN SIDE WHICH WOULD MEAN A MORE POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH. THIS IS ALSO THE FIRST IN THE ECMWF/S MODEL RUNS THAT DOES
THIS. THIS TIMEFRAME IS STILL VERY FAR OUT AND WILL NEED FURTHER
IRONING BEFORE DETAILS ARE SMOOTHED OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR
CIGS...ALTHOUGH VFR CIGS MORE LIKELY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS
AND POINTS OFFSHORE. SHOULD SEE RETURN TO IFR CIGS NEAR COAST
TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS FARTHER INLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDER MAINLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.

GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO 35KT ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST THROUGH 00Z.

SLOW IMPROVEMENT THU WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS IN MORNING GIVING WAY TO
VFR CIGS BY AFTERNOON FROM W TO E. VFR THU NIGHT AS CLEARING WORKS
INTO NEW ENGLAND.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOWER-END MVFR CIGS MOST
LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE CIGS DROP TO IFR TONIGHT.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW
PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

* CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE *

COASTAL STORM PASSES SE OF NANTUCKET THIS EVENING AND TO MARITIMES
THU AND THU NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS AND
ESPECIALLY SEAS...WHICH WILL TAKE A COUPLE OF DAYS TO SUBSIDE.

MAINTAINED GALE WARNINGS ON MOST WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS WE
EXPECT ANOTHER SURGE OF N GALES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THU.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...
ESPECIALLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE FEW LEFTOVER
SHOWERS THU MORNING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...AFTER A BRIEF
LULL...SEAS AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
WATERS AS THE WINDS RISE ABOVE 25 KTS AND THE SEAS HAVE 5-8 FT
SWELLS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD AS HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL OVER THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
STILL HAVE A FEW FLOOD WARNINGS POSTED...PRIMARILY FOR RESIDUAL
FLOODING NOW THAT MOST SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS HAVE CRESTED.
LARGER MAINSTEM RIVERS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN THEIR BANKS.

SIGNIFICANT URBAN FLOODING THAT AFFECTED PEABODY MA WILL GRADUALLY
EASE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...DESPITE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
NEXT HIGH TIDE ALONG E MA COAST IS AROUND MIDNIGHT. DUE TO WINDS
BEING MORE NORTHERLY AS OPPOSED TO ONSHORE...IMPACT WILL BE MUCH
LESS THAN PREVIOUS HIGH TIDE CYCLES. SURGE BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1.0 FT
IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG N SHORE OF CAPE COD ON CAPE COD
BAY...BUT WE ARE ONLY ANTICIPATING SOME SPLASHOVER AND MINOR
BEACH EROSION AT THIS TIME. DO NOT BELIEVE IT WILL REACH AN
ADVISORY LEVEL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ007-014>016-
     019.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>234.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-250-251-
     256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ236.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...HR/FIELD
AVIATION...JWD/HR/FIELD
MARINE...JWD/HR/FIELD
HYDROLOGY...JWD/FRANK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JWD




000
FXUS61 KBOX 231704
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
104 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET THIS EVENING. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY THIS
AFTERNOON BUT STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY
PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. DRY
AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
* CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH TONIGHT *

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS MAIN BAND OF HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE HAS SHIFTED INTO EASTERN NY AND
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

IN ITS WAKE SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE ROTATING WESTWARD AROUND UPPER
LOW S OF NEW ENGLAND WHERE AIRMASS HAS BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE.
HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND HAVE A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG OF ML/MUCAPE THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL HELP MORE ACTIVITY
DEVELOP THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AROUND CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER...BUT HIGHER CORES
COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS BRIEF DOWNPOURS.

ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS LOW PASSES SE OF NEW
ENGLAND. MODELS POINT TO A SECONDARY SURGE OF WIND AS WINDS SHIFT
MORE TO N/NW...ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST. AS A RESULT WE WILL KEEP
WIND ADVISORY POSTED...THOUGH STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR MORE LIKELY
TO OCCUR UNTIL 7 OR 8 PM.

CYCLONIC FLOW AND LEFTOVER MOISTURE WILL KEEP CLOUDS LOCKED IN
TONIGHT ALONG WITH FEW SHOWERS. LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO 40S/50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FRI AS LOW SLOWLY PULLS TOWARD MARITIMES. MAY
SEE FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS ESPECIALLY THU MORNING AND CLOSER TO
COAST. CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE LITTLE HOPE FOR SIGNIFICANT
CLEARING UNTIL FRI NIGHT...SO CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE UNTIL THEN...
ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS OF SUN ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.

STAYED CLOSE TO BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...WHICH GIVES
HIGHS IN 50S THU AND BACK INTO 40S THU NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO QUEBEC
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERALL THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MESOSCALE DETAILS BUT
OTHERWISE THEY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.  AFTER THE COASTAL STORM
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE REGION MOVES AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...THE WEATHER STARTS TO DRY OUT AND BECOME MORE SEASONABLE.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION AND EACH OF THESE MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS WITH THEM.


SATURDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND INTO THE MARITIMES.
THE MODELS DON/T SHOW A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE OR A BIG WIND SHIFT
WITH THIS FRONT BUT WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS. THE GFS HAS A
STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET THAN THE ECMWF WHICH COULD ENHANCE THE AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL BUT THERE IS STILL MUCH TO BE SEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER.  TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TO CLIMB AND MAY WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC MAY BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT BUT PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR
CIGS...ALTHOUGH VFR CIGS MORE LIKELY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS
AND POINTS OFFSHORE. SHOULD SEE RETURN TO IFR CIGS NEAR COAST
TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS FARTHER INLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDER MAINLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.

GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO 35KT ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST THROUGH 00Z.

SLOW IMPROVEMENT THU WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS IN MORNING GIVING WAY TO
VFR CIGS BY AFTERNOON FROM W TO E. VFR THU NIGHT AS CLEARING WORKS
INTO NEW ENGLAND.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOWER-END MVFR CIGS MOST LIKELY
THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE CIGS DROP TO IFR TONIGHT.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

* CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE *

COASTAL STORM PASSES SE OF NANTUCKET THIS EVENING AND TO MARITIMES
THU AND THU NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS AND
ESPECIALLY SEAS...WHICH WILL TAKE A COUPLE OF DAYS TO SUBSIDE.

MAINTAINED GALE WARNINGS ON MOST WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS WE
EXPECT ANOTHER SURGE OF N GALES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THU.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...
ESPECIALLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE FEW LEFTOVER
SHOWERS THU MORNING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AFTER A BRIEF LULL...SEAS
AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
WATERS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LAST NIGHT/S HIGH TIDE YIELDED A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 FT TO 2.0 FT.
THIS COMBINED WITH LARGE WAVE ACTION RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING/INUNDATION FROM PLYMOUTH COUNTY NORTHWARD. BOTH
ETSS AND ESTOFS ARE ABOUT 50% TOO LOW WITH THEIR SURGE VALUES WHEN
COMPARED TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. THUS HAVE INCREASED GUID BY 50
PERCENT.

WE ARE NOW RAMPING UP TO THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
PRIOR STORM SURGE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND HAVE NOT CHANGED. AT
0945 EDT THE SURGE WAS RUNNING AT 2 FEET AT BOS...ABOUT TWICE AS
HIGH AS THE GUIDANCE. WAVES JUST OFFSHORE RUNNING 16 TO 18 FEET.
THE NNE GRADIENT APPEARS TO BE RETIGHTENING FOR A PERIOD AS
ADVERTISED BY SHORT TERM MODELS AND THINK WAVES WILL HOLD AT
THESE HEIGHTS OR POSSIBLY EVEN INCREASE ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO BEFORE
SUBSIDING THIS EVENING. THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE IS ABOUT A HALF FOOT
HIGHER TODAY THAN LAST NIGHT AND WILL ALLOW WAVE ACTIVITY TO RUNUP
SOMEWHAT FURTHER ALONG THE BEACH. HENCE...THE IMPACT COULD BE A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED LAST NIGHT. ALSO...WE HAVE
THE ISSUE OF THIS BECOMING A FAIRLY LONG DURATION EVENT WITH
CONTINUED EROSION OF THE DUNE SLOPES ALONG SANDY BEACH AREAS. WILL
KEEP THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR SALISBURY TO CAPE ANN
AND HULL TO PLYMOUTH. OUR GREATEST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE BEACH
EROSION IN THE SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND AREA.

THERE MAY BE SOME SPLASHOVER AND MINOR BEACH EROSION FOR THE HIGH
TIDE TONIGHT BUT DO NOT BELIEVE IT WILL REACH AN ADVISORY LEVEL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ005>007-
     012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ007-019.
NH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ012.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234-236-254-255.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-250-251-
     256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...JWD
MARINE...JWD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KBOX 231704
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
104 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET THIS EVENING. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY THIS
AFTERNOON BUT STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY
PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. DRY
AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
* CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH TONIGHT *

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS MAIN BAND OF HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE HAS SHIFTED INTO EASTERN NY AND
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

IN ITS WAKE SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE ROTATING WESTWARD AROUND UPPER
LOW S OF NEW ENGLAND WHERE AIRMASS HAS BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE.
HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND HAVE A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG OF ML/MUCAPE THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL HELP MORE ACTIVITY
DEVELOP THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AROUND CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER...BUT HIGHER CORES
COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS BRIEF DOWNPOURS.

ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS LOW PASSES SE OF NEW
ENGLAND. MODELS POINT TO A SECONDARY SURGE OF WIND AS WINDS SHIFT
MORE TO N/NW...ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST. AS A RESULT WE WILL KEEP
WIND ADVISORY POSTED...THOUGH STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR MORE LIKELY
TO OCCUR UNTIL 7 OR 8 PM.

CYCLONIC FLOW AND LEFTOVER MOISTURE WILL KEEP CLOUDS LOCKED IN
TONIGHT ALONG WITH FEW SHOWERS. LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO 40S/50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FRI AS LOW SLOWLY PULLS TOWARD MARITIMES. MAY
SEE FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS ESPECIALLY THU MORNING AND CLOSER TO
COAST. CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE LITTLE HOPE FOR SIGNIFICANT
CLEARING UNTIL FRI NIGHT...SO CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE UNTIL THEN...
ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS OF SUN ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.

STAYED CLOSE TO BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...WHICH GIVES
HIGHS IN 50S THU AND BACK INTO 40S THU NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO QUEBEC
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERALL THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MESOSCALE DETAILS BUT
OTHERWISE THEY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.  AFTER THE COASTAL STORM
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE REGION MOVES AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...THE WEATHER STARTS TO DRY OUT AND BECOME MORE SEASONABLE.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION AND EACH OF THESE MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS WITH THEM.


SATURDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND INTO THE MARITIMES.
THE MODELS DON/T SHOW A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE OR A BIG WIND SHIFT
WITH THIS FRONT BUT WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS. THE GFS HAS A
STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET THAN THE ECMWF WHICH COULD ENHANCE THE AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL BUT THERE IS STILL MUCH TO BE SEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER.  TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TO CLIMB AND MAY WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC MAY BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT BUT PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU NIGHT/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR
CIGS...ALTHOUGH VFR CIGS MORE LIKELY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS
AND POINTS OFFSHORE. SHOULD SEE RETURN TO IFR CIGS NEAR COAST
TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS FARTHER INLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDER MAINLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.

GUSTY N/NW WINDS TO 35KT ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST THROUGH 00Z.

SLOW IMPROVEMENT THU WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS IN MORNING GIVING WAY TO
VFR CIGS BY AFTERNOON FROM W TO E. VFR THU NIGHT AS CLEARING WORKS
INTO NEW ENGLAND.

KBOS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOWER-END MVFR CIGS MOST LIKELY
THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE CIGS DROP TO IFR TONIGHT.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

* CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE *

COASTAL STORM PASSES SE OF NANTUCKET THIS EVENING AND TO MARITIMES
THU AND THU NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS AND
ESPECIALLY SEAS...WHICH WILL TAKE A COUPLE OF DAYS TO SUBSIDE.

MAINTAINED GALE WARNINGS ON MOST WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS WE
EXPECT ANOTHER SURGE OF N GALES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THU.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...
ESPECIALLY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. OTHERWISE FEW LEFTOVER
SHOWERS THU MORNING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AFTER A BRIEF LULL...SEAS
AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
WATERS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LAST NIGHT/S HIGH TIDE YIELDED A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 FT TO 2.0 FT.
THIS COMBINED WITH LARGE WAVE ACTION RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING/INUNDATION FROM PLYMOUTH COUNTY NORTHWARD. BOTH
ETSS AND ESTOFS ARE ABOUT 50% TOO LOW WITH THEIR SURGE VALUES WHEN
COMPARED TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. THUS HAVE INCREASED GUID BY 50
PERCENT.

WE ARE NOW RAMPING UP TO THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
PRIOR STORM SURGE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND HAVE NOT CHANGED. AT
0945 EDT THE SURGE WAS RUNNING AT 2 FEET AT BOS...ABOUT TWICE AS
HIGH AS THE GUIDANCE. WAVES JUST OFFSHORE RUNNING 16 TO 18 FEET.
THE NNE GRADIENT APPEARS TO BE RETIGHTENING FOR A PERIOD AS
ADVERTISED BY SHORT TERM MODELS AND THINK WAVES WILL HOLD AT
THESE HEIGHTS OR POSSIBLY EVEN INCREASE ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO BEFORE
SUBSIDING THIS EVENING. THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE IS ABOUT A HALF FOOT
HIGHER TODAY THAN LAST NIGHT AND WILL ALLOW WAVE ACTIVITY TO RUNUP
SOMEWHAT FURTHER ALONG THE BEACH. HENCE...THE IMPACT COULD BE A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED LAST NIGHT. ALSO...WE HAVE
THE ISSUE OF THIS BECOMING A FAIRLY LONG DURATION EVENT WITH
CONTINUED EROSION OF THE DUNE SLOPES ALONG SANDY BEACH AREAS. WILL
KEEP THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR SALISBURY TO CAPE ANN
AND HULL TO PLYMOUTH. OUR GREATEST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE BEACH
EROSION IN THE SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND AREA.

THERE MAY BE SOME SPLASHOVER AND MINOR BEACH EROSION FOR THE HIGH
TIDE TONIGHT BUT DO NOT BELIEVE IT WILL REACH AN ADVISORY LEVEL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ005>007-
     012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ007-019.
NH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ012.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234-236-254-255.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-250-251-
     256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...JWD
MARINE...JWD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KBOX 231418
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1018 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET THIS EVENING. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY THIS
AFTERNOON BUT STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FRIDAY AS THE STORM SLOWLY
PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. DRY
AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
* URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING...STRONG WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING *

FORECAST LARGELY IN GOOD SHAPE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO MATCH
CURRENT RADAR/OBS TRENDS. SATELLITE SHOWS CLOSED LOW S OF NEW
ENGLAND...WHICH WILL SLOWLY BRING SURFACE LOW SE OF NANTUCKET THIS
EVENING.

1) URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING

RADAR SHOWED MAIN BAND OF HEAVY RAIN...ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION ZONE...SLOWLY SHIFTING INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. FOCUS THROUGH MIDDAY WILL BE ACROSS SW NH AND W MA WHERE
SEVERAL FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED...BUT THIS SHOULD PUSH OUT
OF NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL WILL DIMINISH ACROSS
MERRIMACK VALLEY WHERE FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN
POSTED AS WELL.

ACROSS REST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...HIGH-RES MODELS SHOW
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER
THROUGH AFTERNOON. ALREADY SEEING EVIDENCE OF THIS S OF NEW
ENGLAND...AND SOME OF THIS SHOULD AFFECT CAPE COD AND ISLANDS
WHERE MODELS SHOW FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF ML/MU CAPE THIS AFTERNOON.
STILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BUT NOT ENOUGH OF
WIDESPREAD THREAT TO KEEP FLOOD WATCH GOING.

2) STRONG WINDS:

STILL SEEING STRONG WINDS /NEAR 40KT/ FROM BOSTON TO NE MA. WIND
FIELD ALOFT DIMINISHES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT REMAINS HIGH
ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY ADVISORY GIVEN IMPACT ON FULLY LEAVED TREES.
SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS ARRIVE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.


3) COASTAL FLOODING:

SEE TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...

OCCLUDED LOW SLOWLY MOVES SEAWARD. HOWEVER LIGHTER COMMA-HEAD
RAINS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE REGION MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER THE
FLOOD THREAT APPEARS TO DIMINISH. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD
BEGIN TO SLACKEN LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
WEAKENS.

FRIDAY...

FURTHER IMPROVEMENT ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO
EAST AS COMMA-HEAD EXITS AND MOVES OFFSHORE. RISK FOR SHOWERS WILL
BE HIGHEST IN THE MORNING WITH BEST CHANCE OF DRYING AND LATE DAY
SUNSHINE IS ACROSS THE CT RVR VLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO QUEBEC
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERALL THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MESOSCALE DETAILS BUT
OTHERWISE THEY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.  AFTER THE COASTAL STORM
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE REGION MOVES AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...THE WEATHER STARTS TO DRY OUT AND BECOME MORE SEASONABLE.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION AND EACH OF THESE MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS WITH THEM.


SATURDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND INTO THE MARITIMES.
THE MODELS DON/T SHOW A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE OR A BIG WIND SHIFT
WITH THIS FRONT BUT WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS. THE GFS HAS A
STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET THAN THE ECMWF WHICH COULD ENHANCE THE AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL BUT THERE IS STILL MUCH TO BE SEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER.  TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TO CLIMB AND MAY WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC MAY BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT BUT PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...

TODAY...
BAND OF HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED T-STORMS WILL SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHWARD. MARGINAL IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. GUSTY NE WINDS
CONTINUE WITH STRONGEST WINDS FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHEAST MA. SOME
VFR CAPE/ISLANDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...

IFR EASTERN MA WITH MVFR ELSEWHERE. SLOW IMPROVEMENT WITH SHOWERS
BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS AND WINDS SLOWLY EASING.

FRIDAY...

MVFR BUT TRENDING TOWARD VFR LATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS BECOMING LESS
NUMEROUS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. NNW WINDS 10-20 KT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

*** DANGEROUS COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS ***

THIS AFTERNOON...

COASTAL STORM SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING NE GALES AND
DANGEROUS SEAS TO THE MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND WATERS.
STRONGEST WINDS AND LARGEST SEAS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN MA
INTO NH COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS NOT QUITE AS INTENSE THIS
AFTERNOON BUT NEVERTHELESS DANGEROUS SEA CONDITIONS.

HEAVY RAIN SQUALLS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN MA WATERS THROUGH MIDDAY...WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT...

LOW SLOWLY WEAKENS AND MOVES SEAWARD WITH WINDS BECOMING SUBGALE
AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. ALSO ANY LINGERING RAIN SQUALLS NOT AS
INTENSE AS THIS MORNING.

FRIDAY...

SLOW IMPROVEMENT CONTINUES WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE NNW AND
SHOWERS BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS LATE IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AFTER A BRIEF LULL...SEAS
AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
WATERS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LAST NIGHT/S HIGH TIDE YIELDED A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 FT TO 2.0 FT.
THIS COMBINED WITH LARGE WAVE ACTION RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING/INUNDATION FROM PLYMOUTH COUNTY NORTHWARD. BOTH
ETSS AND ESTOFS ARE ABOUT 50% TOO LOW WITH THEIR SURGE VALUES WHEN
COMPARED TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. THUS HAVE INCREASED GUID BY 50
PERCENT.

WE ARE NOW RAMPING UP TO THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
PRIOR STORM SURGE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND HAVE NOT CHANGED. AT
0945 EDT THE SURGE WAS RUNNING AT 2 FEET AT BOS...ABOUT TWICE AS
HIGH AS THE GUIDANCE. WAVES JUST OFFSHORE RUNNING 16 TO 18 FEET.
THE NNE GRADIENT APPEARS TO BE RETIGHTENING FOR A PERIOD AS
ADVERTISED BY SHORT TERM MODELS AND THINK WAVES WILL HOLD AT
THESE HEIGHTS OR POSSIBLY EVEN INCREASE ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO BEFORE
SUBSIDING THIS EVENING. THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE IS ABOUT A HALF FOOT
HIGHER TODAY THAN LAST NIGHT AND WILL ALLOW WAVE ACTIVITY TO RUNUP
SOMEWHAT FURTHER ALONG THE BEACH. HENCE...THE IMPACT COULD BE A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED LAST NIGHT. ALSO...WE HAVE
THE ISSUE OF THIS BECOMING A FAIRLY LONG DURATION EVENT WITH
CONTINUED EROSION OF THE DUNE SLOPES ALONG SANDY BEACH AREAS. WILL
KEEP THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR SALISBURY TO CAPE ANN
AND HULL TO PLYMOUTH. OUR GREATEST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE BEACH
EROSION IN THE SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND AREA.

THERE MAY BE SOME SPLASHOVER AND MINOR BEACH EROSION FOR THE HIGH
TIDE TONIGHT BUT DO NOT BELIEVE IT WILL REACH AN ADVISORY LEVEL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ005>007-
     012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ007-019.
NH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ012.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234-236-254-255.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-250-251-
     256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY/RLG
MARINE...NOCERA/RLG/JWD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...THOMPSON




000
FXUS61 KBOX 231357
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
957 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN IN SQUALLS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
WINDS NOT QUITE AS STRONG. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FRIDAY AS
THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS POSSIBLE
AGAIN SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC. DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
*** A POWERFUL EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
 STRONG WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL AND TIDAL FLOODING INTO THU MORNING ***

7 AM UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. UPDATED
TEMPS/DWPTS TO BRING THEM UP TO CURRENT TRENDS BUT OTHER ISSUES
REMAIN ON TRACK. WILL BE UPDATING FLOOD ADVISORY AND FLASH FLOOD
WARNINGS. AS HEAVY RAIN BANDS CONTINUE TO PIVOT ACROSS THE N
SHORE. ANOTHER CONCERN IS A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN
FRANKLIN COUNTY WHICH MAY YIELD SOME MINOR RIVER FLOODING.

1)HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD THREAT...

DUAL POL HAS BEEN ESTIMATING HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF ABOUT AN
INCH OR SO IN THE RAIN BAND OVER MA MUCH OF THE NIGHT. RADAR MAY
BE UNDER ESTIMATING GIVEN THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS /PRECIP
DRIFT/. AS THIS WARM CONVEYOR BELT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHWARD THE
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOOD THREAT WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN MA
INTO SOUTHERN NH THIS MORNING. THUS WORST CONDITIONS FOR THE
MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE ACROSS THIS REGION.

ELSEWHERE PRECIP WILL BE MORE SHOWERY AND NOT AS INTENSE. HOWEVER
ANOTHER POTENT SHORT WAVE/PV ANOMALY WAS PIVOTING NORTHWARD AROUND
THE MID LEVEL LOW AND THIS NEW WARM CONVEYOR BELT MAY CLIP
SOUTHERN RI AND SOUTHEAST MA LATER TODAY WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL. LAPSE RATES NOT AS IMPRESSIVE LATER TODAY AS THIS
MORNING BUT CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED T-STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN RI INTO SOUTHEAST MA. GIVEN THE RISK
OF ADDITIONAL FLOODING WILL LEAVE THE FLOOD WATCH AS IS WITH THE
GREATEST RISK ACROSS NORTHEAST MA AND SOUTHEAST NH THIS MORNING.


2) STRONG WINDS:

KBOX RADAR INDICATES LOW LEVEL JET HAS WEAKENED SOMEWHAT AND
SHIFTED NORTHWARD. ELEVATED OBSERVING PLATFORMS SUCH AS ISLE OF
SHOALS OFF THE NH COASTLINE CONFIRMS THIS WITH NE WINDS CONTINUING
TO GUSTS OVER 50 KT! HOWEVER SURFACE WINDS HAVE SLACKENED A BIT
OVER THE REGION AS WIND TRAJECTORY AS SHIFTED FROM NE TO N DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS. THIS IS A RESULT OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SUBTLE
COASTAL FRONT. THIS MORE LAND TRAJECTORY IS A MORE STABLE THAN
OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER OCEAN ALONG WITH MORE FRICTION/DRAG.
HENCE WIND SPEEDS HAVE LESSENED OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER GIVEN THE CORE
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE CLOSEST TO NORTHEAST MA ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN/CONVECTION ENHANCING WIND THREAT FROM PRECIP DRAG WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR ESSEX COUNTY.

ELSEWHERE LOW LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WIND
SPEEDS APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. WHILE SPEEDS MAY FALL JUST SHY
OF CRITERIA...FULLY TO PARTIAL LEAVED TREES WILL INCREASE THE RISK
OF DOWN LIMBS AND BRANCHES. HENCE WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY
UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...

OCCLUDED LOW SLOWLY MOVES SEAWARD. HOWEVER LIGHTER COMMA-HEAD
RAINS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE REGION MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER THE
FLOOD THREAT APPEARS TO DIMINISH. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD
BEGIN TO SLACKEN LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
WEAKENS.

FRIDAY...

FURTHER IMPROVEMENT ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO
EAST AS COMMA-HEAD EXITS AND MOVES OFFSHORE. RISK FOR SHOWERS WILL
BE HIGHEST IN THE MORNING WITH BEST CHANCE OF DRYING AND LATE DAY
SUNSHINE IS ACROSS THE CT RVR VLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO QUEBEC
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERALL THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MESOSCALE DETAILS BUT
OTHERWISE THEY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.  AFTER THE COASTAL STORM
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE REGION MOVES AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...THE WEATHER STARTS TO DRY OUT AND BECOME MORE SEASONABLE.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION AND EACH OF THESE MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS WITH THEM.


SATURDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND INTO THE MARITIMES.
THE MODELS DON/T SHOW A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE OR A BIG WIND SHIFT
WITH THIS FRONT BUT WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS. THE GFS HAS A
STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET THAN THE ECMWF WHICH COULD ENHANCE THE AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL BUT THERE IS STILL MUCH TO BE SEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER.  TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TO CLIMB AND MAY WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC MAY BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT BUT PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...

TODAY...
BAND OF HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED T-STORMS WILL SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHWARD. MARGINAL IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. GUSTY NE WINDS
CONTINUE WITH STRONGEST WINDS FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHEAST MA. SOME
VFR CAPE/ISLANDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...

IFR EASTERN MA WITH MVFR ELSEWHERE. SLOW IMPROVEMENT WITH SHOWERS
BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS AND WINDS SLOWLY EASING.

FRIDAY...

MVFR BUT TRENDING TOWARD VFR LATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS BECOMING LESS
NUMEROUS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. NNW WINDS 10-20 KT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

*** DANGEROUS COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS ***

TODAY...

COASTAL STORM SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING NORTHEAST GALES AND
DANGEROUS SEAS TO THE MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND WATERS.
STRONGEST WINDS AND LARGEST SEAS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN MA
WATERS INTO NH COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS NOT QUITE AS
INTENSE THIS AFTERNOON BUT NEVERTHELESS DANGEROUS SEA CONDITIONS.
HEAVY RAIN SQUALLS WITH EMBEDDED T-STORMS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN MA WATERS.

TONIGHT...

LOW SLOWLY WEAKENS AND MOVES SEAWARD WITH WINDS BECOMING SUBGALE
AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. ALSO ANY LINGERING RAIN SQUALLS NOT AS
INTENSE AS THIS MORNING.

FRIDAY...

SLOW IMPROVEMENT CONTINUES WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE NNW AND
SHOWERS BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS LATE IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AFTER A BRIEF LULL...SEAS
AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
WATERS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LAST NIGHT/S HIGH TIDE YIELDED A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 FT TO 2.0 FT.
THIS COMBINED WITH LARGE WAVE ACTION RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING/INUNDATION FROM PLYMOUTH COUNTY NORTHWARD. BOTH
ETSS AND ESTOFS ARE ABOUT 50% TOO LOW WITH THEIR SURGE VALUES WHEN
COMPARED TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. THUS HAVE INCREASED GUID BY 50
PERCENT.

WE ARE NOW RAMPING UP TO THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
PRIOR STORM SURGE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND HAVE NOT CHANGED. AT
0945 EDT THE SURGE WAS RUNNING AT 2 FEET AT BOS...ABOUT TWICE AS
HIGH AS THE GUIDANCE. WAVES JUST OFFSHORE RUNNING 16 TO 18 FEET.
THE NNE GRADIENT APPEARS TO BE RETIGHTENING FOR A PERIOD AS
ADVERTISED BY SHORT TERM MODELS AND THINK WAVES WILL HOLD AT
THESE HEIGHTS OR POSSIBLY EVEN INCREASE ANOTHER FOOT OR TWO BEFORE
SUBSIDING THIS EVENING. THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE IS ABOUT A HALF FOOT
HIGHER TODAY THAN LAST NIGHT AND WILL ALLOW WAVE ACTIVITY TO RUNUP
SOMEWHAT FURTHER ALONG THE BEACH. HENCE...THE IMPACT COULD BE A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED LAST NIGHT. ALSO...WE HAVE
THE ISSUE OF THIS BECOMING A FAIRLY LONG DURATION EVENT WITH
CONTINUED EROSION OF THE DUNE SLOPES ALONG SANDY BEACH AREAS. WILL
KEEP THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR SALISBURY TO CAPE ANN
AND HULL TO PLYMOUTH. OUR GREATEST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE BEACH
EROSION IN THE SALISBURY AND PLUM ISLAND AREA.

THERE MAY BE SOME SPLASHOVER AND MINOR BEACH EROSION FOR THE HIGH
TIDE TONIGHT BUT DO NOT BELIEVE IT WILL REACH AN ADVISORY LEVEL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ005>007-
     012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ007-019.
NH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ012.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234-236-254-255.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-250-251-
     256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DOODY
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY/RLG
MARINE...NOCERA/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...THOMPSON/NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 231132
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
732 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN IN SQUALLS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
WINDS NOT QUITE AS STRONG. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FRIDAY AS
THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS POSSIBLE
AGAIN SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC. DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
*** A POWERFUL EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
 STRONG WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL AND TIDAL FLOODING INTO THU MORNING ***

7 AM UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. UPDATED
TEMPS/DWPTS TO BRING THEM UP TO CURRENT TRENDS BUT OTHER ISSUES
REMAIN ON TRACK. WILL BE UPDATING FLOOD ADVISORY AND FLASH FLOOD
WARNINGS. AS HEAVY RAIN BANDS CONTINUE TO PIVOT ACROSS THE N
SHORE. ANOTHER CONCERN IS A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN
FRANKLIN COUNTY WHICH MAY YIELD SOME MINOR RIVER FLOODING.

1)HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD THREAT...

DUAL POL HAS BEEN ESTIMATING HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF ABOUT AN
INCH OR SO IN THE RAIN BAND OVER MA MUCH OF THE NIGHT. RADAR MAY
BE UNDER ESTIMATING GIVEN THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS /PRECIP
DRIFT/. AS THIS WARM CONVEYOR BELT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHWARD THE
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOOD THREAT WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN MA
INTO SOUTHERN NH THIS MORNING. THUS WORST CONDITIONS FOR THE
MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE ACROSS THIS REGION.

ELSEWHERE PRECIP WILL BE MORE SHOWERY AND NOT AS INTENSE. HOWEVER
ANOTHER POTENT SHORT WAVE/PV ANOMALY WAS PIVOTING NORTHWARD AROUND
THE MID LEVEL LOW AND THIS NEW WARM CONVEYOR BELT MAY CLIP
SOUTHERN RI AND SOUTHEAST MA LATER TODAY WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL. LAPSE RATES NOT AS IMPRESSIVE LATER TODAY AS THIS
MORNING BUT CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED T-STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN RI INTO SOUTHEAST MA. GIVEN THE RISK
OF ADDITIONAL FLOODING WILL LEAVE THE FLOOD WATCH AS IS WITH THE
GREATEST RISK ACROSS NORTHEAST MA AND SOUTHEAST NH THIS MORNING.


2) STRONG WINDS:

KBOX RADAR INDICATES LOW LEVEL JET HAS WEAKENED SOMEWHAT AND
SHIFTED NORTHWARD. ELEVATED OBSERVING PLATFORMS SUCH AS ISLE OF
SHOALS OFF THE NH COASTLINE CONFIRMS THIS WITH NE WINDS CONTINUING
TO GUSTS OVER 50 KT! HOWEVER SURFACE WINDS HAVE SLACKENED A BIT
OVER THE REGION AS WIND TRAJECTORY AS SHIFTED FROM NE TO N DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS. THIS IS A RESULT OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SUBTLE
COASTAL FRONT. THIS MORE LAND TRAJECTORY IS A MORE STABLE THAN
OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER OCEAN ALONG WITH MORE FRICTION/DRAG.
HENCE WIND SPEEDS HAVE LESSENED OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER GIVEN THE CORE
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE CLOSEST TO NORTHEAST MA ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN/CONVECTION ENHANCING WIND THREAT FROM PRECIP DRAG WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR ESSEX COUNTY.

ELSEWHERE LOW LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WIND
SPEEDS APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. WHILE SPEEDS MAY FALL JUST SHY
OF CRITERIA...FULLY TO PARTIAL LEAVED TREES WILL INCREASE THE RISK
OF DOWN LIMBS AND BRANCHES. HENCE WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY
UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...

OCCLUDED LOW SLOWLY MOVES SEAWARD. HOWEVER LIGHTER COMMA-HEAD
RAINS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE REGION MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER THE
FLOOD THREAT APPEARS TO DIMINISH. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD
BEGIN TO SLACKEN LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
WEAKENS.

FRIDAY...

FURTHER IMPROVEMENT ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO
EAST AS COMMA-HEAD EXITS AND MOVES OFFSHORE. RISK FOR SHOWERS WILL
BE HIGHEST IN THE MORNING WITH BEST CHANCE OF DRYING AND LATE DAY
SUNSHINE IS ACROSS THE CT RVR VLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO QUEBEC
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERALL THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MESOSCALE DETAILS BUT
OTHERWISE THEY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.  AFTER THE COASTAL STORM
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE REGION MOVES AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...THE WEATHER STARTS TO DRY OUT AND BECOME MORE SEASONABLE.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION AND EACH OF THESE MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS WITH THEM.


SATURDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND INTO THE MARITIMES.
THE MODELS DON/T SHOW A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE OR A BIG WIND SHIFT
WITH THIS FRONT BUT WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS. THE GFS HAS A
STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET THAN THE ECMWF WHICH COULD ENHANCE THE AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL BUT THERE IS STILL MUCH TO BE SEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER.  TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TO CLIMB AND MAY WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC MAY BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT BUT PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...

TODAY...
BAND OF HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED T-STORMS WILL SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHWARD. MARGINAL IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. GUSTY NE WINDS
CONTINUE WITH STRONGEST WINDS FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHEAST MA. SOME
VFR CAPE/ISLANDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...

IFR EASTERN MA WITH MVFR ELSEWHERE. SLOW IMPROVEMENT WITH SHOWERS
BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS AND WINDS SLOWLY EASING.

FRIDAY...

MVFR BUT TRENDING TOWARD VFR LATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS BECOMING LESS
NUMEROUS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. NNW WINDS 10-20 KT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

*** DANGEROUS COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS ***

TODAY...

COASTAL STORM SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING NORTHEAST GALES AND
DANGEROUS SEAS TO THE MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND WATERS.
STRONGEST WINDS AND LARGEST SEAS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN MA
WATERS INTO NH COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS NOT QUITE AS
INTENSE THIS AFTERNOON BUT NEVERTHELESS DANGEROUS SEA CONDITIONS.
HEAVY RAIN SQUALLS WITH EMBEDDED T-STORMS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN MA WATERS.

TONIGHT...

LOW SLOWLY WEAKENS AND MOVES SEAWARD WITH WINDS BECOMING SUBGALE
AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. ALSO ANY LINGERING RAIN SQUALLS NOT AS
INTENSE AS THIS MORNING.

FRIDAY...

SLOW IMPROVEMENT CONTINUES WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE NNW AND
SHOWERS BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS LATE IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AFTER A BRIEF LULL...SEAS
AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
WATERS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LAST NIGHT/S HIGH TIDE YIELDED A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 FT TO 2.0 FT.
THIS COMBINED WITH LARGE WAVE ACTION RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING/INUNDATION FROM PLYMOUTH COUNTY NORTHWARD. BOTH
ETSS AND ESTOFS ARE ABOUT 50% TOO LOW WITH THEIR SURGE VALUES WHEN
COMPARED TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. THUS HAVE INCREASED GUID BY 50
PERCENT.

NEXT HIGH TIDE IS LATE THIS MORNING TOWARD MIDDAY. WHILE THIS
ASTRO TIDE IS ABOUT 0.5 FT HIGHER SURGE VALUES MAY BE SOMEWHAT
LESS THAN LAST EVENING. REASON BEING IS THAT WINDS HAVE BECOME
MORE NORTHERLY...LIMITING THE FETCH AND WAVE GROWTH SOMEWHAT. ALSO
THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE JET IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS MIDDAY
APPROACHES. SO WHILE THIS NEXT HIGH TIDE IS ABOUT 0.5 FT HIGHER...
THINKING WATER LEVELS WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST EVENING/S HIGH TIDE.
IN ADDITION WAVE ACTION MAY BE SLIGHTLY LESS GIVEN WINDS MORE
NORTHERLY LIMITING FETCH/WAVE GROWTH. HENCE IMPACTS REGARDING
COASTAL FLOODING/INUNDATION AND EROSION SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO LAST
EVENING. AS A RESULT WILL NOT UPGRADE TO A WARNING AND CONTINUE
WITH A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. GREATEST IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE IN
THE CAPE ANN AREA NORTHWARD TO SALISBURY INCLUDING PLUM ISLAND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ004.
MA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-
     013>022-026.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ005-006-
     012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ007-019.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ007.
NH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ012-015.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ012.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234-236-254-255.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-250-251-
     256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DOODY
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY/RLG
MARINE...NOCERA/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 230836
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
436 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN IN SQUALLS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
WINDS NOT QUITE AS STRONG. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FRIDAY AS
THE STORM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS POSSIBLE
AGAIN SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC. DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

*** A POWERFUL EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
 STRONG WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL AND TIDAL FLOODING INTO THU MORNING ***

415 AM UPDATE...

IMPRESSIVE EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH ITS WARM CONVEYOR BELT/TROWAL RAINS AND
EMBEDDED CONVECTION PINWHEELING FROM GEORGES BANK INTO
MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHERN NH...SLOWLY PIVOTING NORTHWEST. DETAILS
ON THE INDIVIDUAL STORM HAZARDS ARE BELOW.

1)HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD THREAT...

DUAL POL HAS BEEN ESTIMATING HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF ABOUT AN
INCH OR SO IN THE RAIN BAND OVER MA MUCH OF THE NIGHT. RADAR MAY
BE UNDER ESTIMATING GIVEN THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS /PRECIP
DRIFT/. AS THIS WARM CONVEYOR BELT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHWARD THE
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOOD THREAT WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN MA
INTO SOUTHERN NH THIS MORNING. THUS WORST CONDITIONS FOR THE
MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE ACROSS THIS REGION.

ELSEWHERE PRECIP WILL BE MORE SHOWERY AND NOT AS INTENSE. HOWEVER
ANOTHER POTENT SHORT WAVE/PV ANOMALY WAS PIVOTING NORTHWARD AROUND
THE MID LEVEL LOW AND THIS NEW WARM CONVEYOR BELT MAY CLIP
SOUTHERN RI AND SOUTHEAST MA LATER TODAY WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL. LAPSE RATES NOT AS IMPRESSIVE LATER TODAY AS THIS
MORNING BUT CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED T-STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN RI INTO SOUTHEAST MA. GIVEN THE RISK
OF ADDITIONAL FLOODING WILL LEAVE THE FLOOD WATCH AS IS WITH THE
GREATEST RISK ACROSS NORTHEAST MA AND SOUTHEAST NH THIS MORNING.


2) STRONG WINDS:

KBOX RADAR INDICATES LOW LEVEL JET HAS WEAKENED SOMEWHAT AND
SHIFTED NORTHWARD. ELEVATED OBSERVING PLATFORMS SUCH AS ISLE OF
SHOALS OFF THE NH COASTLINE CONFIRMS THIS WITH NE WINDS CONTINUING
TO GUSTS OVER 50 KT! HOWEVER SURFACE WINDS HAVE SLACKENED A BIT
OVER THE REGION AS WIND TRAJECTORY AS SHIFTED FROM NE TO N DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS. THIS IS A RESULT OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SUBTLE
COASTAL FRONT. THIS MORE LAND TRAJECTORY IS A MORE STABLE THAN
OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER OCEAN ALONG WITH MORE FRICTION/DRAG.
HENCE WIND SPEEDS HAVE LESSENED OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER GIVEN THE CORE
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE CLOSEST TO NORTHEAST MA ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN/CONVECTION ENHANCING WIND THREAT FROM PRECIP DRAG WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR ESSEX COUNTY.

ELSEWHERE LOW LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WIND
SPEEDS APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. WHILE SPEEDS MAY FALL JUST SHY
OF CRITERIA...FULLY TO PARTIAL LEAVED TREES WILL INCREASE THE RISK
OF DOWN LIMBS AND BRANCHES. HENCE WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY
UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...

TONIGHT...

OCCLUDED LOW SLOWLY MOVES SEAWARD. HOWEVER LIGHTER COMMA-HEAD
RAINS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE REGION MUCH OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER THE
FLOOD THREAT APPEARS TO DIMINISH. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD
BEGIN TO SLACKEN LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
WEAKENS.

FRIDAY...

FURTHER IMPROVEMENT ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO
EAST AS COMMA-HEAD EXITS AND MOVES OFFSHORE. RISK FOR SHOWERS WILL
BE HIGHEST IN THE MORNING WITH BEST CHANCE OF DRYING AND LATE DAY
SUNSHINE IS ACROSS THE CT RVR VLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

* SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO QUEBEC
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERALL THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MESOSCALE DETAILS BUT
OTHERWISE THEY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.  AFTER THE COASTAL STORM
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE REGION MOVES AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...THE WEATHER STARTS TO DRY OUT AND BECOME MORE SEASONABLE.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION AND EACH OF THESE MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS WITH THEM.


SATURDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND INTO THE MARITIMES.
THE MODELS DON/T SHOW A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE OR A BIG WIND SHIFT
WITH THIS FRONT BUT WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS. THE GFS HAS A
STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET THAN THE ECMWF WHICH COULD ENHANCE THE AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL BUT THERE IS STILL MUCH TO BE SEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER.  TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TO CLIMB AND MAY WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC MAY BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT BUT PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...

THRU 12Z...

BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED T-STORMS OVER CAPE COD
NORTHWEST INTO WESTERN MA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PIVOT NORTHWARD
WITH TIME. STRONG NE WINDS CONTINUE WITH HIGHEST GUSTS OVER
NORTHEAST MA. IFR PERSIST ALONG THE COAST WITH MVFR ELSEWHERE.

AFTER 12Z...

BAND OF HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED T-STORMS SHOULD BE ACROSS
NORTHERN MA INTO SOUTHERN NH AND SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD.
MARGINAL IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. GUSTY NE WINDS CONTINUE
WITH STRONGEST WINDS FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHEAST MA.

TONIGHT...

IFR EASTERN MA WITH MVFR ELSEWHERE. SLOW IMPROVEMENT WITH SHOWERS
BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS AND WINDS SLOWLY EASING.

FRIDAY...

MVFR BUT TRENDING TOWARD VFR LATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS BECOMING LESS
NUMEROUS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. NNW WINDS 10-20 KT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

*** DANGEROUS COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS ***

TODAY...

COASTAL STORM SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING NORTHEAST GALES AND
DANGEROUS SEAS TO THE MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND WATERS.
STRONGEST WINDS AND LARGEST SEAS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN MA
WATERS INTO NH COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS NOT QUITE AS
INTENSE THIS AFTERNOON BUT NEVERTHELESS DANGEROUS SEA CONDITIONS.
HEAVY RAIN SQUALLS WITH EMBEDDED T-STORMS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN MA WATERS.

TONIGHT...

LOW SLOWLY WEAKENS AND MOVES SEAWARD WITH WINDS BECOMING SUBGALE
AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. ALSO ANY LINGERING RAIN SQUALLS NOT AS
INTENSE AS THIS MORNING.

FRIDAY...

SLOW IMPROVEMENT CONTINUES WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE NNW AND
SHOWERS BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS LATE IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AFTER A BRIEF LULL...SEAS
AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
WATERS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

LAST NIGHT/S HIGH TIDE YIELDED A STORM SURGE OF 1.5 FT TO 2.0 FT.
THIS COMBINED WITH LARGE WAVE ACTION RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING/INUNDATION FROM PLYMOUTH COUNTY NORTHWARD. BOTH
ETSS AND ESTOFS ARE ABOUT 50% TOO LOW WITH THEIR SURGE VALUES WHEN
COMPARED TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. THUS HAVE INCREASED GUID BY 50
PERCENT.

NEXT HIGH TIDE IS LATE THIS MORNING TOWARD MIDDAY. WHILE THIS
ASTRO TIDE IS ABOUT 0.5 FT HIGHER SURGE VALUES MAY BE SOMEWHAT
LESS THAN LAST EVENING. REASON BEING IS THAT WINDS HAVE BECOME
MORE NORTHERLY...LIMITING THE FETCH AND WAVE GROWTH SOMEWHAT. ALSO
THE LOW LEVEL ONSHORE JET IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS MIDDAY
APPROACHES. SO WHILE THIS NEXT HIGH TIDE IS ABOUT 0.5 FT HIGHER...
THINKING WATER LEVELS WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST EVENING/S HIGH TIDE.
IN ADDITION WAVE ACTION MAY BE SLIGHTLY LESS GIVEN WINDS MORE
NORTHERLY LIMITING FETCH/WAVE GROWTH. HENCE IMPACTS REGARDING
COASTAL FLOODING/INUNDATION AND EROSION SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO LAST
EVENING. AS A RESULT WILL NOT UPGRADE TO A WARNING AND CONTINUE
WITH A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. GREATEST IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE IN
THE CAPE ANN AREA NORTHWARD TO SALISBURY INCLUDING PLUM ISLAND.


&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ004.
MA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-
     013>022-026.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ005-006-
     012>021.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ007-019.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ007.
NH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ012-015.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ012.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ231>234-236-254-255.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-250-251-
     256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-237.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...NOCERA/RLG
MARINE...NOCERA/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 230609
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
209 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM WILL BRING STRONG TO DAMAGING
WINDS ALONG WITH LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN SQUALLS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THEN LESSENING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS THE STORM
SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN
SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. DRY...SEASONABLE
WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

*** A POWERFUL EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM WILL BRING STRONG TO
 DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING INTO
 THU MORNING ***

2 AM UPDATE...

IMPRESSIVE EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
WITH ITS WARM CONVEYOR BELT/TROWAL RAINS AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION
PINWHEELING FROM GEORGES BANK NORTHWESTWARD INTO MASSACHUSETTS AND
SLOWLY PIVOTING NORTHWEST. HEAVY RAINFALL AND CONVECTION WITHIN
THIS WARM CONVEYOR BELT WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR FLOODING
ACROSS EASTERN MA AND EVENTUALLY INTO SOUTHEAST NH. THUS WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE FLOOD WATCH.

OCCLUDED LOW SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND AND STRONG HIGH PRES OVER QUEBEC
WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS A STRONG LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST JET ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NH/NORTHEAST MA/RI AND NORTHEAST CT. THIS LOW LEVEL JET
WILL REMAIN STRONG THRU 12Z AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKENING THIS
AFTERNOON. THUS WIND HEADLINES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.

PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURES THESE DETAILS NICELY SO NO MAJOR
CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.  EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

=============================================================

POTENT CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO INTENSIFY AS IT SLOWLY
LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST PASSING NEAR THE BENCHMARK ON THURSDAY.
GIVEN THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATIONS...WERE
EXPECTING A BREAK DOWN IN PRECIPITATION FIELDS THAT WE OFTEN SEE
DURING WINTER STORMS.

1) HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL:

IN A NUTSHELL...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION.  THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS TRYING TO LOCATE
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN BANDS WILL SET UP.  THERE ARE A LOT OF
MOVING PARTS TO THIS FORECAST...WHICH MAKES THIS A DIFFICULT TASK.

WE EXPECT HEAVY RAIN TO INITIALLY OVERSPREAD SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
AND WORK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING.
THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL THEN APPROACH SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND BY
LATE EVENING.  THIS MAY RESULT IN THE PRECIPITATION FIELD MORE
SCATTERED AT TIMES ACROSS SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OVERNIGHT...BUT ALSO
MORE CONVECTIVE GIVEN SOME ELEVATED CAPE. SO WHILE WE MAY SEE SOME
BREAKS IN THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.  IN ADDITION...WE PROBABLY WILL SEE A SUBTLE
COASTAL FRONT SET UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING SO SOME ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE.

WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR A SECOND AREA OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE/BACK BENT WARM
FRONT.  LOCATION OF THIS IS TRICKY BUT PERHAPS FURTHER BACK INTO
THE INTERIOR ACROSS  SOUTHERN NH AND EAST SLOPES OF BERKSHIRES?

FINALLY IN BETWEEN THE TWO BANDS OF HEAVIEST RAIN THERE WILL LIKELY
BE A MINIMUM.  SO BASICALLY...A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2.50 INCHES OF RAIN
IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT LOCALIZED 4+ INCH AMOUNTS
ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ACROSS A PORTION OF THE REGION.  WILL JUST
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS OVERNIGHT AND
FINE TUNE OUR QPF FORECAST.  THE FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING IF THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE REALIZED.

2) TIMING:

HEAVY RAIN OVER SPREADS THE REGION FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING.  PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE MORNING RUSH HOUR.  ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND NEAR THE DRY SLOT.  THE STEADIEST
RAIN SHOULD BE OVER BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE.

3) STRONG WIND POTENTIAL:

NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET OVER 50 KNOTS WILL IMPINGE ON EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  IN FACT...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOWING SOME PRETTY IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS BELOW 1000 FEET.  THE
UNCERTAINTY IS THAT AN INVERSION WILL ATTEMPT TO KEEP THE STRONGEST
WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK.  HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN BANDS MAY BE ABLE TO
PULL BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS TO THE GROUND.  THE WIND ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR NORTHEAST MA INTO COASTAL PLYMOUTH COUNTY.  PROBLEMS
MAY BE EXACERBATED GIVEN THE MANY FULLY LEAFED TREES...RESULTING IN
SOME DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND EVEN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.  THERE
IS THE CHANCE THAT THE WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER
NORTHWEST...BUT AGAIN ITS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH WIND WILL MIX DOWN.
THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID MORNING ON THURSDAY AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET WEAKENS.

&&


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
* SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO QUEBEC
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK

OVERALL THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MESOSCALE DETAILS BUT
OTHERWISE THEY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.  AFTER THE COASTAL STORM
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE REGION MOVES AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...THE WEATHER STARTS TO DRY OUT AND BECOME MORE SEASONABLE.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION AND EACH OF THESE MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS WITH THEM.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE GULF
OF MAINE AND THEN THE MARITIMES FRIDAY.  WHILE THE BULK OF THE RAIN
WILL BE ENDING BY THURSDAY NIGHT...COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS.
HOWEVER...WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY FRIDAY BRINGING
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.  OVERALL EXPECT DRIER WEATHER
AND A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND INTO THE MARITIMES.
THE MODELS DON/T SHOW A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE OR A BIG WIND SHIFT
WITH THIS FRONT BUT WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS. THE GFS HAS A
STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET THAN THE ECMWF WHICH COULD ENHANCE THE AMOUNT
OF RAINFALL BUT THERE IS STILL MUCH TO BE SEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER.  TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TO CLIMB AND MAY WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC MAY BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT BUT PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...

THRU 12Z...

BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED T-STORMS OVER CAPE COD
NORTHWEST INTO WESTERN MA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PIVOT NORTHWARD
WITH TIME. STRONG NE WINDS CONTINUE WITH HIGHEST GUSTS OVER
NORTHEAST MA. IFR PERSIST ALONG THE COAST WITH MVFR ELSEWHERE.

AFTER 12Z...

BAND OF HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED T-STORMS SHOULD BE ACROSS
NORTHERN MA INTO SOUTHERN NH AND SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD.
MARGINAL IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. GUSTY NE WINDS CONTINUE
WITH STRONGEST WINDS FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHEAST MA.

TONIGHT...

IFR EASTERN MA WITH MVFR ELSEWHERE. SLOW IMPROVEMENT WITH SHOWERS
BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS AND WINDS SLOWLY EASING.

FRIDAY...

MVFR BUT TRENDING TOWARD VFR LATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS BECOMING LESS
NUMEROUS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. NNW WINDS 10-20 KT.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF ON TRENDS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING OF DETAILS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

***20 FOOT SEAS AND STORM FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS CONTINUE
 INTO THURSDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS WATERS***

LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF
40 TO 50 KNOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS WATERS INCLUDING
BOSTON HARBOR THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING. STRONG WINDS AND LONG NORTHEAST FETCH WILL RESULT IN
20 FOOT SEAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS WATERS.
GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  8 TO 11 FOOT SEAS WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES.  NORTHEAST
WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KTS WILL DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST.  VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AFTER A BRIEF LULL...SEAS
AND WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
WATERS.

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DESPITE RATHER LOW ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES LATE TONIGHT AND
AGAIN MIDDAY THURSDAY...OPTED TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR A PORTION OF THE EASTERN MA COAST. THIS IS MAINLY FOR THE AREA
NORTH OF CAPE ANN AND THE SCITUATE AREA. A LONG DURATION OF
NORTHEAST WINDS COMBINED WITH 15 TO 20 FOOT SEAS ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN MA WATERS MAY YIELD POCKETS OF SPLASH OVER AND POCKETS OF
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL FLOOD EVENT...BUT FELT IT WAS WORTH AN ADVISORY.

IN ADDITION...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION ALONG
THE EXPOSED BEACHES FROM SALISBURY TO PLUM ISLAND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ004.
MA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ007-
     014>016-019.
     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ005>007-
     013>022-026.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MAZ007-019.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ005-006-012-
     013-017-018-020-021.
NH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ012-015.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ012.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ231>237-
     254>256.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ230.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA
NEAR TERM...FRANK/RLG
SHORT TERM...FRANK/NOCERA
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...NOCERA/RLG
MARINE...FRANK/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities