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000
FXUS61 KBOX 301805
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
205 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL GIVE WAY
TO DRIER WEATHER FRIDAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN VERY WARM. WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND...THEN WILL BECOME LESS
HUMID WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LOW
RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER MUCH OF THE TIME DRY WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
2 PM UPDATE...

* STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS THRU 9 PM *
* LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE/FLOODING AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO

LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS THINKING REGARDING CONVECTIVE THREATS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVING IN W
NEW ENGLAND AT 2 PM HEADS TO COAST AFTER 5 PM. FEW SHOWERS
POPPING UP IN ADVANCE OF LINE AS LEADING EDGE OF HIGHER THETA-E
AIRMASS WORKS INTO REGION.

TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED WELL INTO 80S/AROUND 90 WITH DEWPOINTS
IN LOW-MID 70S WHICH HAS RESULTED IN SB CAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG
ACROSS PARTS OF REGION. 0-6KM SHEAR IS MARGINAL AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE MEAGER. RAP/HRRR APPEAR TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON
MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT...SO STRONGER STORMS MAY END UP AFFECTING
W MA AND N CT WHERE WE HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE IN LOCALIZED WIND
DAMAGE FROM 40-60 MPH GUSTS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO /AS
DESCRIBED BELOW/ BEFORE WEAKENING ACTIVITY HEADS TOWARD RI AND SE
MA LATER IN DAY.

MAIN ISSUE MAY END UP BEING LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND 2 INCHES. DESPITE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF STORMS...MAY SEE RAINFALL OF 2 TO 3 INCHES
IN A SHORT TIME WHICH COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

STILL HAVE CONCERN FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO PRIMARILY NEAR CT
VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT A CLASSIC SETUP FOR NEW ENGLAND
TORNADOES...PRESENCE OF 30-35KT WINDS AT 925 MB AND LOW LCL FROM
70+ DEWPOINTS POINTS TOWARD THAT POTENTIAL. IF ONE DOES OCCUR...
AND THAT IS A BIG IF...IT WOULD LIKELY BE TOWARD WEAKER SIDE GIVEN
STRENGTH OF WIND FIELDS ALOFT.

ACTIVITY DIMINISHES TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE FRI MORNING WITH DRIER AND MORE COMFORTABLE
AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE. KEEPING FRI NIGHT DRY ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD SEE
INCREASING CLOUDS AS NEXT SHORT WAVE APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* EXPECT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AND LOWER HUMIDITY THROUGH MOST OF
  THIS PERIOD

* CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER EACH DAY BUT MUCH OF THE
  TIME REMAINING DRY

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST CONTINUES TO FEATURE ANOMALOUS H5 CUTOFF
VORTEX ACROSS JAMES AND HUDSON BAYS WHICH WILL ELONGATE ACROSS
QUEBEC DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WILL STILL SEE LONG WAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND DOWN THE APPALACHIANS WHICH WILL
TEND TO FLATTEN...THOUGH SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF
THE CUTOFF LOW INTO THE MEAN TROUGH. THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME. NOT
EXPECTED A TOTAL WASHOUT AT ANY TIME...THOUGH MODELS LOOK LIKE THEY
MAY HAVE SOME CONTINUITY WILL BE AROUND THE LATE MON/MON NIGHT AND
TUE NIGHT TIMEFRAMES. HOWEVER...OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTION SPREAD
DOES WIDENS OVER TIME AS ONE WOULD EXPECT ESPECIALLY THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR...SO CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC TIMING OF CONVECTION AND ANY
SHORT WAVE PASSAGE LOWERS.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO MONDAY...THEN TRANSITIONED
OVER TO THE GFS AND EC ENS MEANS WHICH GAVE A BIT MORE CONTINUITY
WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT A WEAK H5 SHORT WAVE IN THE MEAN
UPPER FLOW FOR LATER SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE BEST INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE...WHAT THERE IS OF IT...WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS. ANOTHER QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THERE WILL BE SOME
NOCTURNAL INSTABILITY SHOWERS/TSTMS ALONG THE S COAST WHERE HIGHEST
HUMIDITIES ARE IN PLACE. HAVE LEFT OUT FOR NOW...BUT IT IS SIGNALED
ON THE GFS MODEL.

HAVE GENERALLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING...BUT MAY SEE A LINE OF SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS CT VALLEY INTO CENTRAL MA/NE CT POSSIBLE DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. EXPECT THE SHORT WAVE TO SHIFT E
AND WEAKEN SO PRECIP SHOULD ALSO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT.

HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S. IT WILL BE COOLER WELL INLAND
LATE SAT NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND 60...RANGING TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE
S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

SUNDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS SO EXPECT A MAINLY DRY
DAY. H85 TEMPS WILL BE FROM +15C TO +16C...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO
THE 80S FOR MOST AREAS...A BIT COOLER ALONG THE S COAST WITH THE S-
SW WINDS IN PLACE.

MONDAY...SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE. MODELS SIGNALING A
POSSIBLE PRE FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHING LATE MON OR MON NIGHT
/TIMING IN QUESTION/. MAY SEE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS W MA AND W
HARTFORD COUNTY. WITH THE MILDER S-SW FLOW IN PLACE...EXPECT HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 80S.

TUESDAY...W-SW FLOW ALOFT AS QUEBEC VORTEX BROADENS. ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH LATE TUE INTO TUE
EVENING. GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN DIGGING H5 TROUGH TO THE W WHICH
WILL KEEP WARM AND HUMID AIR IN PLACE. HAVE CARRIED CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE REGION...THEN SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...A LOT OF QUESTIONS AS TO WHETHER FRONT WILL
STALL S OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AND IF WAVES WILL MOVE
ALONG THIS FRONT. FOR NOW...HAVE CHANCE POPS MOVING ACROSS WED
NIGHT/THU...BUT TIMING IS STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. LOW
CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH MVFR/IFR ARRIVE IN W NEW ENGLAND 18Z-
20Z AND SHOULD WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING COAST 21Z- 00Z. HEAVY RAIN
MAIN THREAT BUT POTENTIAL FOR 40-50KT GUSTS IN STRONGER STORMS. SW
WINDS GUST TO 25KT ESPECIALLY NEAR S COAST.

MVFR/IFR CIGS SHOULD RETURN TO PARTS OF A COAST...CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS THIS EVENING. COULD ALSO SEE PATCHY IFR DUE TO VALLEY FOG
INLAND. VFR FRI AND FRI NIGHT WITH W/SW WINDS...MAY HAVE LOCAL
SEA BREEZES DURING AFTERNOON NEAR COAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MAIN WINDOW FOR TSTMS
22Z-01Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MAIN WINDOW FOR TSTMS
19Z-22Z. 40KT GUSTS POSSIBLE IN STRONGER STORMS.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT GENERALLY VFR MOST OF THE TIME. LOW CHANCE OF SCT SHOWERS/
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS SAT AFTERNOON/EARLY SAT NIGHT AND AGAIN MON-TUE.
BRIEF LOCAL MVFR IN ANY PRECIP.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

SCA REMAINS POSTED FOR 20-30KT GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE AS
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION...LONG
SOUTHWEST FETCH WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO BETWEEN 3 TO 5
FEET ACROSS MOST OPEN WATERS. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT
KEEPING SCA THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE OUTER WATERS DUE TO LEFTOVER
SWELL.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER REGION FRI AND FRI NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND DIMINISHING SEAS.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KT SAT/SAT NIGHT THEN
DIMINISH. WITH LONG S-SW FETCH...SEAS FORECAST UP TO 5 FT MAINLY ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...CONTINUED SW WINDS IN PLACE...WHICH MAY GUST TO 20
KT AT TIMES. SEAS UP TO 5-7 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE
SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MON NIGHT/TUE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>234-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...EVT/JWD
MARINE...EVT/JWD



000
FXUS61 KBOX 301805
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
205 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL GIVE WAY
TO DRIER WEATHER FRIDAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN VERY WARM. WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND...THEN WILL BECOME LESS
HUMID WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LOW
RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER MUCH OF THE TIME DRY WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
2 PM UPDATE...

* STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS THRU 9 PM *
* LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE/FLOODING AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO

LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS THINKING REGARDING CONVECTIVE THREATS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVING IN W
NEW ENGLAND AT 2 PM HEADS TO COAST AFTER 5 PM. FEW SHOWERS
POPPING UP IN ADVANCE OF LINE AS LEADING EDGE OF HIGHER THETA-E
AIRMASS WORKS INTO REGION.

TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED WELL INTO 80S/AROUND 90 WITH DEWPOINTS
IN LOW-MID 70S WHICH HAS RESULTED IN SB CAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG
ACROSS PARTS OF REGION. 0-6KM SHEAR IS MARGINAL AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE MEAGER. RAP/HRRR APPEAR TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON
MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT...SO STRONGER STORMS MAY END UP AFFECTING
W MA AND N CT WHERE WE HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE IN LOCALIZED WIND
DAMAGE FROM 40-60 MPH GUSTS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO /AS
DESCRIBED BELOW/ BEFORE WEAKENING ACTIVITY HEADS TOWARD RI AND SE
MA LATER IN DAY.

MAIN ISSUE MAY END UP BEING LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND 2 INCHES. DESPITE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF STORMS...MAY SEE RAINFALL OF 2 TO 3 INCHES
IN A SHORT TIME WHICH COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

STILL HAVE CONCERN FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO PRIMARILY NEAR CT
VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT A CLASSIC SETUP FOR NEW ENGLAND
TORNADOES...PRESENCE OF 30-35KT WINDS AT 925 MB AND LOW LCL FROM
70+ DEWPOINTS POINTS TOWARD THAT POTENTIAL. IF ONE DOES OCCUR...
AND THAT IS A BIG IF...IT WOULD LIKELY BE TOWARD WEAKER SIDE GIVEN
STRENGTH OF WIND FIELDS ALOFT.

ACTIVITY DIMINISHES TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE FRI MORNING WITH DRIER AND MORE COMFORTABLE
AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE. KEEPING FRI NIGHT DRY ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD SEE
INCREASING CLOUDS AS NEXT SHORT WAVE APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* EXPECT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AND LOWER HUMIDITY THROUGH MOST OF
  THIS PERIOD

* CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER EACH DAY BUT MUCH OF THE
  TIME REMAINING DRY

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST CONTINUES TO FEATURE ANOMALOUS H5 CUTOFF
VORTEX ACROSS JAMES AND HUDSON BAYS WHICH WILL ELONGATE ACROSS
QUEBEC DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WILL STILL SEE LONG WAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND DOWN THE APPALACHIANS WHICH WILL
TEND TO FLATTEN...THOUGH SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF
THE CUTOFF LOW INTO THE MEAN TROUGH. THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME. NOT
EXPECTED A TOTAL WASHOUT AT ANY TIME...THOUGH MODELS LOOK LIKE THEY
MAY HAVE SOME CONTINUITY WILL BE AROUND THE LATE MON/MON NIGHT AND
TUE NIGHT TIMEFRAMES. HOWEVER...OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTION SPREAD
DOES WIDENS OVER TIME AS ONE WOULD EXPECT ESPECIALLY THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR...SO CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC TIMING OF CONVECTION AND ANY
SHORT WAVE PASSAGE LOWERS.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO MONDAY...THEN TRANSITIONED
OVER TO THE GFS AND EC ENS MEANS WHICH GAVE A BIT MORE CONTINUITY
WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT A WEAK H5 SHORT WAVE IN THE MEAN
UPPER FLOW FOR LATER SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE BEST INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE...WHAT THERE IS OF IT...WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS. ANOTHER QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THERE WILL BE SOME
NOCTURNAL INSTABILITY SHOWERS/TSTMS ALONG THE S COAST WHERE HIGHEST
HUMIDITIES ARE IN PLACE. HAVE LEFT OUT FOR NOW...BUT IT IS SIGNALED
ON THE GFS MODEL.

HAVE GENERALLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING...BUT MAY SEE A LINE OF SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS CT VALLEY INTO CENTRAL MA/NE CT POSSIBLE DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. EXPECT THE SHORT WAVE TO SHIFT E
AND WEAKEN SO PRECIP SHOULD ALSO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT.

HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S. IT WILL BE COOLER WELL INLAND
LATE SAT NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND 60...RANGING TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE
S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

SUNDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS SO EXPECT A MAINLY DRY
DAY. H85 TEMPS WILL BE FROM +15C TO +16C...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO
THE 80S FOR MOST AREAS...A BIT COOLER ALONG THE S COAST WITH THE S-
SW WINDS IN PLACE.

MONDAY...SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE. MODELS SIGNALING A
POSSIBLE PRE FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHING LATE MON OR MON NIGHT
/TIMING IN QUESTION/. MAY SEE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS W MA AND W
HARTFORD COUNTY. WITH THE MILDER S-SW FLOW IN PLACE...EXPECT HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 80S.

TUESDAY...W-SW FLOW ALOFT AS QUEBEC VORTEX BROADENS. ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH LATE TUE INTO TUE
EVENING. GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN DIGGING H5 TROUGH TO THE W WHICH
WILL KEEP WARM AND HUMID AIR IN PLACE. HAVE CARRIED CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE REGION...THEN SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...A LOT OF QUESTIONS AS TO WHETHER FRONT WILL
STALL S OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AND IF WAVES WILL MOVE
ALONG THIS FRONT. FOR NOW...HAVE CHANCE POPS MOVING ACROSS WED
NIGHT/THU...BUT TIMING IS STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. LOW
CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH MVFR/IFR ARRIVE IN W NEW ENGLAND 18Z-
20Z AND SHOULD WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING COAST 21Z- 00Z. HEAVY RAIN
MAIN THREAT BUT POTENTIAL FOR 40-50KT GUSTS IN STRONGER STORMS. SW
WINDS GUST TO 25KT ESPECIALLY NEAR S COAST.

MVFR/IFR CIGS SHOULD RETURN TO PARTS OF A COAST...CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS THIS EVENING. COULD ALSO SEE PATCHY IFR DUE TO VALLEY FOG
INLAND. VFR FRI AND FRI NIGHT WITH W/SW WINDS...MAY HAVE LOCAL
SEA BREEZES DURING AFTERNOON NEAR COAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MAIN WINDOW FOR TSTMS
22Z-01Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MAIN WINDOW FOR TSTMS
19Z-22Z. 40KT GUSTS POSSIBLE IN STRONGER STORMS.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT GENERALLY VFR MOST OF THE TIME. LOW CHANCE OF SCT SHOWERS/
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS SAT AFTERNOON/EARLY SAT NIGHT AND AGAIN MON-TUE.
BRIEF LOCAL MVFR IN ANY PRECIP.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

SCA REMAINS POSTED FOR 20-30KT GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE AS
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION...LONG
SOUTHWEST FETCH WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO BETWEEN 3 TO 5
FEET ACROSS MOST OPEN WATERS. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT
KEEPING SCA THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE OUTER WATERS DUE TO LEFTOVER
SWELL.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER REGION FRI AND FRI NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND DIMINISHING SEAS.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SW WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KT SAT/SAT NIGHT THEN
DIMINISH. WITH LONG S-SW FETCH...SEAS FORECAST UP TO 5 FT MAINLY ON
THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...CONTINUED SW WINDS IN PLACE...WHICH MAY GUST TO 20
KT AT TIMES. SEAS UP TO 5-7 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE
SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MON NIGHT/TUE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>234-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/JWD
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...EVT/JWD
MARINE...EVT/JWD




000
FXUS61 KBOX 301700
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
100 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF CT AND MA. NOT AS
WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES FRIDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE
WEEKEND AND PROBABLY INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LOW RISK
FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER MUCH OF THE TIME DRY WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1 PM UPDATE...

* STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS 3 PM TO 9 PM *
* LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE/FLOODING AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO

LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS THINKING REGARDING CONVECTIVE THREATS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUES TO
HEAD E FROM NEW YORK STATE AND WILL ARRIVE IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
AFTER 130 PM BEFORE HEADING TO COAST AFTER 4 PM. FEW SHOWERS
POPPING UP IN ADVANCE OF LINE AS LEADING EDGE OF HIGHER THETA-E
AIRMASS WORKS INTO REGION.

TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED WELL INTO 80S/AROUND 90 WITH DEWPOINTS
IN LOW-MID 70S WHICH HAS RESULTED IN SB CAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG
ACROSS PARTS OF REGION. 0-6KM SHEAR IS MARGINAL AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE MEAGER. RAP/HRRR APPEAR TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON
MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT...SO STRONGER STORMS MAY END UP AFFECTING
W MA AND N CT WHERE WE HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE IN LOCALIZED WIND
DAMAGE FROM 40-60 MPH GUSTS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO /AS
DESCRIBED BELOW/ BEFORE WEAKENING ACTIVITY HEADS TOWARD RI AND SE
MA LATER IN DAY.

MAIN ISSUE MAY END UP BEING LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND 2 INCHES. DESPITE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF STORMS...MAY SEE RAINFALL OF 2 TO 3 INCHES
IN A SHORT TIME WHICH COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

STILL HAVE CONCERN FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO PRIMARILY NEAR CT
VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT A CLASSIC SETUP FOR NEW ENGLAND
TORNADOES...PRESENCE OF 30-35KT WINDS AT 925 MB AND LOW LCL FROM
70+ DEWPOINTS POINTS TOWARD THAT POTENTIAL. IF ONE DOES OCCUR...
AND THAT IS A BIG IF...IT WOULD LIKELY BE TOWARD WEAKER SIDE GIVEN
STRENGTH OF WIND FIELDS ALOFT.

ACTIVITY DIMINISHES TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE FRI MORNING WITH DRIER AND MORE COMFORTABLE
AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE. KEEPING FRI NIGHT DRY ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD SEE
INCREASING CLOUDS AS NEXT SHORT WAVE APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PATTERN CHANGE TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AND LOWER HUMIDITY

* LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER EACH DAY BUT
  MUCH OF THE TIME REMAINING DRY

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

ANOMALOUS CANADIAN VORTEX OVER HUDSON AND JAMES BAYS THIS PERIOD
RESULTS IN A MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS.
NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE THRU THIS BROAD TROUGH INTO NEW
ENGLAND THIS TIME PERIOD AND WILL RESULT IN A REINFORCING SURGE OF
DRIER AIR WITH EACH PASSING JET IMPULSE. THESE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
MAY YIELD A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED T-STORM WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS
DISPLAYING LARGE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THESE SHORT WAVES GIVEN THE
FAST/BROAD FLOW ALOFT. THUS LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF
CONVECTIVE THREAT. GIVEN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES A MODEL
BLEND PROVIDES THE MOST SKILL AND WILL USE THIS AS A BASIS FOR THIS
FORECAST.

DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

SATURDAY...LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NY STATE
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS LACKING AND
THIS SHOULD LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS TO WIDELY
SCATTERED. THUS MOST LOCATIONS REMAIN DRY. SEASONABLY WARM WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY...SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY DAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS
/H85 +15/ WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

MONDAY...ANOTHER POTENTIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THUS LOW RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS THIS
PERIOD. SEASONABLY WARM WITH H5 TEMPS AROUND +15C.

TUESDAY...CANADIAN VORTEX DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO QUEBEC WITH LOWERING
HEIGHTS AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD A
GREATER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS
LIKELY AHEAD OF MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT.

WEDNESDAY...ITS DAY 7 BUT GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THAT CLOSED LOW WILL BE OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WITH
MEAN TROUGH AXIS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. 925 MB AND 850 MB TEMPS ARE
ABOUT -1 STD DEVIATION COOLER THAN CLIMO. THUS COULD HAVE A PERIOD
OF SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH MVFR/IFR ARRIVE IN W
NEW ENGLAND 18Z-20Z AND SHOULD WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING COAST 21Z-
00Z. HEAVY RAIN MAIN THREAT BUT POTENTIAL FOR 40-50KT GUSTS IN
STRONGER STORMS. SW WINDS GUST TO 25KT ESPECIALLY NEAR S COAST.

MVFR/IFR CIGS SHOULD RETURN TO PARTS OF A COAST...CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS THIS EVENING. COULD ALSO SEE PATCHY IFR DUE TO VALLEY FOG
INLAND. VFR FRI AND FRI NIGHT WITH W/SW WINDS...MAY HAVE LOCAL
SEA BREEZES DURING AFTERNOON NEAR COAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MAIN WINDOW FOR TSTMS
22Z-01Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MAIN WINDOW FOR TSTMS
19Z-22Z. 40KT GUSTS POSSIBLE IN STRONGER STORMS.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

VFR MUCH OF THE TIME WITH A LOW RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS SAT AND
AGAIN MONDAY. GREATER RISK FOR THUNDER MON. MODERATE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SCA REMAINS POSTED FOR 20-30KT GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE AS
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION...LONG
SOUTHWEST FETCH WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO BETWEEN 3 TO 5
FEET ACROSS MOST OPEN WATERS. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT
KEEPING SCA THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE OUTER WATERS DUE TO LEFTOVER
SWELL.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER REGION FRI AND FRI NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND DIMINISHING SEAS.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FAIRLY TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER THIS PERIOD WITH MODEST SW
WINDS...GOOD VSBY AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

LOW RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS MONDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>234-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...JWD
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 301700
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
100 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF CT AND MA. NOT AS
WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES FRIDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE
WEEKEND AND PROBABLY INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LOW RISK
FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER MUCH OF THE TIME DRY WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1 PM UPDATE...

* STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS 3 PM TO 9 PM *
* LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE/FLOODING AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO

LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS THINKING REGARDING CONVECTIVE THREATS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUES TO
HEAD E FROM NEW YORK STATE AND WILL ARRIVE IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
AFTER 130 PM BEFORE HEADING TO COAST AFTER 4 PM. FEW SHOWERS
POPPING UP IN ADVANCE OF LINE AS LEADING EDGE OF HIGHER THETA-E
AIRMASS WORKS INTO REGION.

TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED WELL INTO 80S/AROUND 90 WITH DEWPOINTS
IN LOW-MID 70S WHICH HAS RESULTED IN SB CAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG
ACROSS PARTS OF REGION. 0-6KM SHEAR IS MARGINAL AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE MEAGER. RAP/HRRR APPEAR TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON
MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT...SO STRONGER STORMS MAY END UP AFFECTING
W MA AND N CT WHERE WE HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE IN LOCALIZED WIND
DAMAGE FROM 40-60 MPH GUSTS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO /AS
DESCRIBED BELOW/ BEFORE WEAKENING ACTIVITY HEADS TOWARD RI AND SE
MA LATER IN DAY.

MAIN ISSUE MAY END UP BEING LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND 2 INCHES. DESPITE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF STORMS...MAY SEE RAINFALL OF 2 TO 3 INCHES
IN A SHORT TIME WHICH COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

STILL HAVE CONCERN FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO PRIMARILY NEAR CT
VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT A CLASSIC SETUP FOR NEW ENGLAND
TORNADOES...PRESENCE OF 30-35KT WINDS AT 925 MB AND LOW LCL FROM
70+ DEWPOINTS POINTS TOWARD THAT POTENTIAL. IF ONE DOES OCCUR...
AND THAT IS A BIG IF...IT WOULD LIKELY BE TOWARD WEAKER SIDE GIVEN
STRENGTH OF WIND FIELDS ALOFT.

ACTIVITY DIMINISHES TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE FRI MORNING WITH DRIER AND MORE COMFORTABLE
AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE. KEEPING FRI NIGHT DRY ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD SEE
INCREASING CLOUDS AS NEXT SHORT WAVE APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PATTERN CHANGE TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AND LOWER HUMIDITY

* LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER EACH DAY BUT
  MUCH OF THE TIME REMAINING DRY

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

ANOMALOUS CANADIAN VORTEX OVER HUDSON AND JAMES BAYS THIS PERIOD
RESULTS IN A MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS.
NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE THRU THIS BROAD TROUGH INTO NEW
ENGLAND THIS TIME PERIOD AND WILL RESULT IN A REINFORCING SURGE OF
DRIER AIR WITH EACH PASSING JET IMPULSE. THESE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
MAY YIELD A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED T-STORM WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS
DISPLAYING LARGE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THESE SHORT WAVES GIVEN THE
FAST/BROAD FLOW ALOFT. THUS LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF
CONVECTIVE THREAT. GIVEN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES A MODEL
BLEND PROVIDES THE MOST SKILL AND WILL USE THIS AS A BASIS FOR THIS
FORECAST.

DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

SATURDAY...LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NY STATE
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS LACKING AND
THIS SHOULD LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS TO WIDELY
SCATTERED. THUS MOST LOCATIONS REMAIN DRY. SEASONABLY WARM WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY...SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY DAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS
/H85 +15/ WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

MONDAY...ANOTHER POTENTIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THUS LOW RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS THIS
PERIOD. SEASONABLY WARM WITH H5 TEMPS AROUND +15C.

TUESDAY...CANADIAN VORTEX DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO QUEBEC WITH LOWERING
HEIGHTS AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD A
GREATER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS
LIKELY AHEAD OF MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT.

WEDNESDAY...ITS DAY 7 BUT GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THAT CLOSED LOW WILL BE OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WITH
MEAN TROUGH AXIS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. 925 MB AND 850 MB TEMPS ARE
ABOUT -1 STD DEVIATION COOLER THAN CLIMO. THUS COULD HAVE A PERIOD
OF SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH MVFR/IFR ARRIVE IN W
NEW ENGLAND 18Z-20Z AND SHOULD WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING COAST 21Z-
00Z. HEAVY RAIN MAIN THREAT BUT POTENTIAL FOR 40-50KT GUSTS IN
STRONGER STORMS. SW WINDS GUST TO 25KT ESPECIALLY NEAR S COAST.

MVFR/IFR CIGS SHOULD RETURN TO PARTS OF A COAST...CAPE COD AND
ISLANDS THIS EVENING. COULD ALSO SEE PATCHY IFR DUE TO VALLEY FOG
INLAND. VFR FRI AND FRI NIGHT WITH W/SW WINDS...MAY HAVE LOCAL
SEA BREEZES DURING AFTERNOON NEAR COAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MAIN WINDOW FOR TSTMS
22Z-01Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MAIN WINDOW FOR TSTMS
19Z-22Z. 40KT GUSTS POSSIBLE IN STRONGER STORMS.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

VFR MUCH OF THE TIME WITH A LOW RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS SAT AND
AGAIN MONDAY. GREATER RISK FOR THUNDER MON. MODERATE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SCA REMAINS POSTED FOR 20-30KT GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE AS
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION...LONG
SOUTHWEST FETCH WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO BETWEEN 3 TO 5
FEET ACROSS MOST OPEN WATERS. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT
KEEPING SCA THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE OUTER WATERS DUE TO LEFTOVER
SWELL.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER REGION FRI AND FRI NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND DIMINISHING SEAS.

OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FAIRLY TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER THIS PERIOD WITH MODEST SW
WINDS...GOOD VSBY AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

LOW RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS MONDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>234-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...JWD
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...JWD
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 301400
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1000 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF CT AND MA. NOT AS
WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES FRIDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE
WEEKEND AND PROBABLY INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LOW RISK
FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER MUCH OF THE TIME DRY WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE...

* STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS 3 PM TO 9 PM *
* LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE/FLOODING AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO

FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE CONSIDERING RADAR TRENDS AND MESOANALYSIS
DATA. ADJUSTED HOURLY POPS TO INCORPORATE HIGH-RES MODELS WHICH
KEEP BULK OF ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BEFORE WEAKENING
IT AS IT HEADS TOWARD COAST DUE TO SW FLOW.

LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WAS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NY THIS MORNING
AND WILL REACH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF
LINE...WE MAY SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM POP UP AS LEADING EDGE
OF HIGHER THETA-E AIRMASS HEADS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BUT WE
EXPECT MOST OF ACTIVITY TO OCCUR BETWEEN 3 PM AND 9 PM AS LINE
MOVES THROUGH.

MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT WILL FEATURE MODERATE SURFACE BASED CAPE
AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG...MARGINAL 0-6KM SHEAR OF 25-30KT AND WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE WE DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
BUT MORE OF LOCALIZED THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE FROM 40-60 MPH GUSTS
MAINLY IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WHICH MATCHES LATEST SPC DAY 1
MARGINAL RISK OUTLOOK. 00Z CIPS ANALOGS ALSO AGREE.

MAIN ISSUE MAY END UP BEING LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND 2 INCHES. DESPITE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF STORMS...MAY SEE RAINFALL OF 2 TO 3 INCHES
IN A SHORT TIME WHICH COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

ALSO HAVE CONCERN FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO PRIMARILY NEAR CT
VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT A CLASSIC SETUP FOR NEW ENGLAND
TORNADOES...PRESENCE OF 30-35KT WINDS AT 925 MB AND LOW LCL FROM
70+ DEWPOINTS POINTS TOWARD THAT POTENTIAL. IF ONE DOES OCCUR...
AND THAT IS A BIG IF...IT WOULD LIKELY BE TOWARD WEAKER SIDE GIVEN
STRENGTH OF WIND FIELDS ALOFT.

ACTIVITY DIMINISHES TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
FRIDAY...

FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING LEADING TO A DESCENT DAY.
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM...HUMIDITY WILL BE LOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAYS. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL LEAD TO MIXING SO WINDS COULD
GET A TAD GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PATTERN CHANGE TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AND LOWER HUMIDITY

* LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER EACH DAY BUT
  MUCH OF THE TIME REMAINING DRY

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

ANOMALOUS CANADIAN VORTEX OVER HUDSON AND JAMES BAYS THIS PERIOD
RESULTS IN A MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS.
NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE THRU THIS BROAD TROUGH INTO NEW
ENGLAND THIS TIME PERIOD AND WILL RESULT IN A REINFORCING SURGE OF
DRIER AIR WITH EACH PASSING JET IMPULSE. THESE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
MAY YIELD A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED T-STORM WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS
DISPLAYING LARGE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THESE SHORT WAVES GIVEN THE
FAST/BROAD FLOW ALOFT. THUS LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF
CONVECTIVE THREAT. GIVEN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES A MODEL
BLEND PROVIDES THE MOST SKILL AND WILL USE THIS AS A BASIS FOR THIS
FORECAST.

DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT...DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY /DEW PTS IN THE
U50S TO L60S/ WITH POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVER THE REGION.

SATURDAY...LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NY STATE
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS LACKING AND
THIS SHOULD LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS TO WIDELY
SCATTERED. THUS MOST LOCATIONS REMAIN DRY. SEASONABLY WARM WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY...SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY DAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS
/H85 +15/ WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

MONDAY...ANOTHER POTENTIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THUS LOW RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS THIS
PERIOD. SEASONABLY WARM WITH H5 TEMPS AROUND +15C.

TUESDAY...CANADIAN VORTEX DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO QUEBEC WITH LOWERING
HEIGHTS AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD A
GREATER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS
LIKELY AHEAD OF MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT.

WEDNESDAY...ITS DAY 7 BUT GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THAT CLOSED LOW WILL BE OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WITH
MEAN TROUGH AXIS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. 925 MB AND 850 MB TEMPS ARE
ABOUT -1 STD DEVIATION COOLER THAN CLIMO. THUS COULD HAVE A PERIOD
OF SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

14Z UPDATE...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. LEFTOVER IFR/MVFR CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY.
LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ARRIVE IN W NEW ENGLAND AROUND 18Z AND
SHOULD WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING COAST 21Z-00Z. HEAVY RAIN MAIN
THREAT BUT POTENTIAL FOR 40-50KT GUSTS IN STRONGER STORMS.

ANTICIPATE ANY LINGERING SHOWERS TO BE OUT OF THE REGION BY 06Z.
PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORMAL PRONE REGIONS
OVERNIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR. LINGERING FOG AND STRATUS WILL
DISSIPATE FRI MORNING GIVING WAY TO VFR WITH DIURNAL CU AND GUSTY
WINDS AROUND 15-20 KTS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MAIN WINDOW FOR TSTMS
22Z-01Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MAIN WINDOW FOR TSTMS
19Z-22Z. 40KT GUSTS POSSIBLE IN STRONGER STORMS.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

VFR MUCH OF THE TIME WITH A LOW RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS SAT AND
AGAIN MONDAY. GREATER RISK FOR THUNDER MON. MODERATE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KEEPING SCA POSTED FOR 20-30KT GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE AS
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION...LONG
SOUTHWEST FETCH WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO BETWEEN 3 TO 5
FEET ACROSS MOST OPEN WATERS. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT
WILL NEED TO KEEP HEADLINES UP THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE OUTER-
WATERS FROM THE LEFT OVER SWELL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ON
FRIDAY SO SCA MAY BE ALLOWED TO DROP.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

FAIRLY TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER THIS PERIOD WITH MODEST SW
WINDS...GOOD VSBY AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

LOW RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS MONDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ230>234-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
     237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN/JWD
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN/JWD




000
FXUS61 KBOX 301104
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
704 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND VERY HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF CT AND MA. NOT AS WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES
FRIDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AND PROBABLY INTO MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER MUCH OF
THE TIME DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

7 AM UPDATE...

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. STRATUS AND FOG LINGER ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI. THIS WILL BURN OFF DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. CLOUDINESS ALONG THE NY/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BORDER WILL
SLOWLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF HIGHER THETA-E AIRMASS ENTERING THE REGION. THESE
SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN NY STATE AND SLOWLY MOVING
EAST. HOWEVER THE BULK OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL BE FOCUSED
FROM 3 PM TO 9 PM...AS STATED BELOW BY PREVIOUS FORECASTER. UNTIL
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS ESPECIALLY OVER RI AND EASTERN MA.

OFF TO A VERY WARM START THIS MORNING WITH 7 AM TEMPS: 76
BOSTON...PROVIDENCE AND HARTFORD! VERY HUMID AS WELL WITH DEW PTS
ALREADY IN THE L70S ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA. EARLIER
DISCUSSION BELOW.

=====================================================================

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

**STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS
  AFTERNOON BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING**

STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY.
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW PUSHING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN MASS AND CONNECTICUT. FATHER EAST APPEARS
THE CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAIN SEEMS TO BE LOWER AS FORCING ALONG THE
FRONT WEAKENS. 00Z GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS A WAVE MOVING UP FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WHICH COULD SLOW DOWN THE PASSAGE FRONT ACROSS THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS TONIGHT. REGARDLESS APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO WESTERN MASS AROUND 18-21Z AND OFFSHORE BY 06Z.

DETAILS:

AHEAD OF THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PULL IN
MOISTURE TODAY BRINGING DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 70S. CLOUD COVER WILL
ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE WITHIN THE WAA PATTERN. WITH THIS AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE...COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
BREAK OUT ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 15-21Z. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION...BELIEVE MORE OF A CONVECTIVE
LINE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY AND MOVE INTO WESTERN
MASS. STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES SNE. POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...5 C/KM AND CLOUD
COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THE REGION SHOULD BE ABLE TO
DEVELOP AROUND 1000-1500 MLCAPE ACROSS THE INTERIOR GIVEN THE 70+
DEWPOINTS. 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR IS RATHER MARGINAL...BUT DOES INCREASE
TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES TOWARDS 00Z. SO ALTHOUGH
THE INSTABILITY/SHEAR IS MARGINAL...WE ARE CLOSER TO THE BETTER
FORCING AS HEIGHTS WILL BE DECREASING ALOFT. THEREFORE CANT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AS THE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH.

BIGGEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS APPEARS TO BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS
LEADING TO NUISANCE FLOODING AS PWAT VALUES ARE ABOUT 2+ INCHES.
GUSTY WINDS/LOCALIZED DOWNBURST ALSO CANNOT BE RULE OUT DUE TO THE
INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK
SPIN-UP DUE TO THE TROPICAL AIRMASS OVER THE REGION LEADING TO
LOW LCL/S...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

AS THE FRONT PASSES...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
DROPS OFF EAST OF THE WORCESTER HILLS. THIS IS DUE TO THE LOSS OF
INSTABILITY FROM SUNSET AS WELL AS LACK OF BETTER FORCING. STILL
CANT RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO
ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ONCE AGAIN TODAY. HOWEVER NOT AS
WARM AS YESTERDAY AS 925MB TEMPS ARE COOLER. SO TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S WITH A FEW SPOT 90S. BEST LOCATION TO
SEE 90+ WILL BE ACROSS THE MERRIMACK VALLEY...WHICH MAY SEE MORE SUN
VERSUS THE REST OF THE AREA. FINALLY SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR WIND GUSTS TO REACH BETWEEN
20-30 MPH ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
FRIDAY...

FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING LEADING TO A DESCENT DAY.
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM...HUMIDITY WILL BE LOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAYS. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL LEAD TO MIXING SO WINDS COULD
GET A TAD GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PATTERN CHANGE TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AND LOWER HUMIDITY

* LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER EACH DAY BUT
  MUCH OF THE TIME REMAINING DRY

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

ANOMALOUS CANADIAN VORTEX OVER HUDSON AND JAMES BAYS THIS PERIOD
RESULTS IN A MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS.
NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE THRU THIS BROAD TROUGH INTO NEW
ENGLAND THIS TIME PERIOD AND WILL RESULT IN A REINFORCING SURGE OF
DRIER AIR WITH EACH PASSING JET IMPULSE. THESE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
MAY YIELD A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED T-STORM WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS
DISPLAYING LARGE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THESE SHORT WAVES GIVEN THE
FAST/BROAD FLOW ALOFT. THUS LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF
CONVECTIVE THREAT. GIVEN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES A MODEL
BLEND PROVIDES THE MOST SKILL AND WILL USE THIS AS A BASIS FOR THIS
FORECAST.

DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT...DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY /DEW PTS IN THE
U50S TO L60S/ WITH POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVER THE REGION.

SATURDAY...LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NY STATE
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS LACKING AND
THIS SHOULD LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS TO WIDELY
SCATTERED. THUS MOST LOCATIONS REMAIN DRY. SEASONABLY WARM WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY...SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY DAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS
/H85 +15/ WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

MONDAY...ANOTHER POTENTIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THUS LOW RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS THIS
PERIOD. SEASONABLY WARM WITH H5 TEMPS AROUND +15C.

TUESDAY...CANADIAN VORTEX DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO QUEBEC WITH LOWERING
HEIGHTS AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD A
GREATER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS
LIKELY AHEAD OF MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT.

WEDNESDAY...ITS DAY 7 BUT GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THAT CLOSED LOW WILL BE OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WITH
MEAN TROUGH AXIS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. 925 MB AND 850 MB TEMPS ARE
ABOUT -1 STD DEVIATION COOLER THAN CLIMO. THUS COULD HAVE A PERIOD
OF SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

7 AM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 06Z AND 09Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT ACROSS THE
CAPE...ISLANDS AND SOUTH COAST WHERE FOG HAS DEVELOPED. CONDITIONS
COULD DROP DOWN TO IFR. ALSO NEED TO WATCH THE CT VALLEY.

BEFORE 18Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR TO START WITH LINGERING FOG
ALONG SOUTHERN TERMINALS. SCT SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDER OUT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD DROP CONDITIONS TO MVFR. WINDS ACROSS
THE SOUTH COAST COULD GUST OUT OF THE SW AROUND 25-30 KTS.

AFTER 18Z AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS...ESP ACROSS
THE SOUTH COAST. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST BEGINNING AROUND 18-21Z. THIS CONVECTIVE LINE COULD BRING
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS WESTERN MASS BEFORE FIZZLING OUT
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. ANTICIPATE ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS TO BE OUT OF THE REGION BY 06Z. PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORMAL PRONE REGIONS OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LINGERING FOG AND STRATUS WILL
DISSIPATE. EXPECT VFR WITH DIURNAL CU AND GUSTY WINDS AROUND 15-20
KTS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A PROBABILITY
THAT A STRONG STORM COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

VFR MUCH OF THE TIME WITH A LOW RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS SAT AND
AGAIN MONDAY. GREATER RISK FOR THUNDER MON. MODERATE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN NEAR SHORE SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...LONG SOUTHWEST FETCH WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO
BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET ACROSS MOST OPEN WATERS. SCA HEADLINES WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT
WILL NEED TO KEEP HEADLINES UP THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE OUTER-
WATERS FROM THE LEFT OVER SWELL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ON
FRIDAY SO SCA MAY BE ALLOWED TO DROP.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

FAIRLY TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER THIS PERIOD WITH MODEST SW
WINDS...GOOD VSBY AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

LOW RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS MONDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ230>234-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 301104
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
704 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND VERY HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF CT AND MA. NOT AS WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES
FRIDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AND PROBABLY INTO MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER MUCH OF
THE TIME DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

7 AM UPDATE...

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. STRATUS AND FOG LINGER ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI. THIS WILL BURN OFF DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. CLOUDINESS ALONG THE NY/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BORDER WILL
SLOWLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF HIGHER THETA-E AIRMASS ENTERING THE REGION. THESE
SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN NY STATE AND SLOWLY MOVING
EAST. HOWEVER THE BULK OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL BE FOCUSED
FROM 3 PM TO 9 PM...AS STATED BELOW BY PREVIOUS FORECASTER. UNTIL
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS ESPECIALLY OVER RI AND EASTERN MA.

OFF TO A VERY WARM START THIS MORNING WITH 7 AM TEMPS: 76
BOSTON...PROVIDENCE AND HARTFORD! VERY HUMID AS WELL WITH DEW PTS
ALREADY IN THE L70S ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA. EARLIER
DISCUSSION BELOW.

=====================================================================

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

**STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS
  AFTERNOON BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING**

STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY.
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW PUSHING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN MASS AND CONNECTICUT. FATHER EAST APPEARS
THE CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAIN SEEMS TO BE LOWER AS FORCING ALONG THE
FRONT WEAKENS. 00Z GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS A WAVE MOVING UP FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WHICH COULD SLOW DOWN THE PASSAGE FRONT ACROSS THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS TONIGHT. REGARDLESS APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO WESTERN MASS AROUND 18-21Z AND OFFSHORE BY 06Z.

DETAILS:

AHEAD OF THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PULL IN
MOISTURE TODAY BRINGING DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 70S. CLOUD COVER WILL
ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE WITHIN THE WAA PATTERN. WITH THIS AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE...COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
BREAK OUT ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 15-21Z. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION...BELIEVE MORE OF A CONVECTIVE
LINE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY AND MOVE INTO WESTERN
MASS. STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES SNE. POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...5 C/KM AND CLOUD
COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THE REGION SHOULD BE ABLE TO
DEVELOP AROUND 1000-1500 MLCAPE ACROSS THE INTERIOR GIVEN THE 70+
DEWPOINTS. 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR IS RATHER MARGINAL...BUT DOES INCREASE
TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES TOWARDS 00Z. SO ALTHOUGH
THE INSTABILITY/SHEAR IS MARGINAL...WE ARE CLOSER TO THE BETTER
FORCING AS HEIGHTS WILL BE DECREASING ALOFT. THEREFORE CANT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AS THE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH.

BIGGEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS APPEARS TO BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS
LEADING TO NUISANCE FLOODING AS PWAT VALUES ARE ABOUT 2+ INCHES.
GUSTY WINDS/LOCALIZED DOWNBURST ALSO CANNOT BE RULE OUT DUE TO THE
INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK
SPIN-UP DUE TO THE TROPICAL AIRMASS OVER THE REGION LEADING TO
LOW LCL/S...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

AS THE FRONT PASSES...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
DROPS OFF EAST OF THE WORCESTER HILLS. THIS IS DUE TO THE LOSS OF
INSTABILITY FROM SUNSET AS WELL AS LACK OF BETTER FORCING. STILL
CANT RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO
ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ONCE AGAIN TODAY. HOWEVER NOT AS
WARM AS YESTERDAY AS 925MB TEMPS ARE COOLER. SO TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S WITH A FEW SPOT 90S. BEST LOCATION TO
SEE 90+ WILL BE ACROSS THE MERRIMACK VALLEY...WHICH MAY SEE MORE SUN
VERSUS THE REST OF THE AREA. FINALLY SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR WIND GUSTS TO REACH BETWEEN
20-30 MPH ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
FRIDAY...

FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING LEADING TO A DESCENT DAY.
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM...HUMIDITY WILL BE LOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAYS. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL LEAD TO MIXING SO WINDS COULD
GET A TAD GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PATTERN CHANGE TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AND LOWER HUMIDITY

* LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER EACH DAY BUT
  MUCH OF THE TIME REMAINING DRY

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

ANOMALOUS CANADIAN VORTEX OVER HUDSON AND JAMES BAYS THIS PERIOD
RESULTS IN A MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS.
NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE THRU THIS BROAD TROUGH INTO NEW
ENGLAND THIS TIME PERIOD AND WILL RESULT IN A REINFORCING SURGE OF
DRIER AIR WITH EACH PASSING JET IMPULSE. THESE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
MAY YIELD A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED T-STORM WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS
DISPLAYING LARGE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THESE SHORT WAVES GIVEN THE
FAST/BROAD FLOW ALOFT. THUS LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF
CONVECTIVE THREAT. GIVEN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES A MODEL
BLEND PROVIDES THE MOST SKILL AND WILL USE THIS AS A BASIS FOR THIS
FORECAST.

DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT...DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY /DEW PTS IN THE
U50S TO L60S/ WITH POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVER THE REGION.

SATURDAY...LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NY STATE
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS LACKING AND
THIS SHOULD LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS TO WIDELY
SCATTERED. THUS MOST LOCATIONS REMAIN DRY. SEASONABLY WARM WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY...SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY DAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS
/H85 +15/ WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

MONDAY...ANOTHER POTENTIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THUS LOW RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS THIS
PERIOD. SEASONABLY WARM WITH H5 TEMPS AROUND +15C.

TUESDAY...CANADIAN VORTEX DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO QUEBEC WITH LOWERING
HEIGHTS AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD A
GREATER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS
LIKELY AHEAD OF MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT.

WEDNESDAY...ITS DAY 7 BUT GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THAT CLOSED LOW WILL BE OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WITH
MEAN TROUGH AXIS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. 925 MB AND 850 MB TEMPS ARE
ABOUT -1 STD DEVIATION COOLER THAN CLIMO. THUS COULD HAVE A PERIOD
OF SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

7 AM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 06Z AND 09Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT ACROSS THE
CAPE...ISLANDS AND SOUTH COAST WHERE FOG HAS DEVELOPED. CONDITIONS
COULD DROP DOWN TO IFR. ALSO NEED TO WATCH THE CT VALLEY.

BEFORE 18Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR TO START WITH LINGERING FOG
ALONG SOUTHERN TERMINALS. SCT SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDER OUT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD DROP CONDITIONS TO MVFR. WINDS ACROSS
THE SOUTH COAST COULD GUST OUT OF THE SW AROUND 25-30 KTS.

AFTER 18Z AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS...ESP ACROSS
THE SOUTH COAST. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST BEGINNING AROUND 18-21Z. THIS CONVECTIVE LINE COULD BRING
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS WESTERN MASS BEFORE FIZZLING OUT
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. ANTICIPATE ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS TO BE OUT OF THE REGION BY 06Z. PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORMAL PRONE REGIONS OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LINGERING FOG AND STRATUS WILL
DISSIPATE. EXPECT VFR WITH DIURNAL CU AND GUSTY WINDS AROUND 15-20
KTS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A PROBABILITY
THAT A STRONG STORM COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

VFR MUCH OF THE TIME WITH A LOW RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS SAT AND
AGAIN MONDAY. GREATER RISK FOR THUNDER MON. MODERATE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN NEAR SHORE SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...LONG SOUTHWEST FETCH WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO
BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET ACROSS MOST OPEN WATERS. SCA HEADLINES WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT
WILL NEED TO KEEP HEADLINES UP THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE OUTER-
WATERS FROM THE LEFT OVER SWELL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ON
FRIDAY SO SCA MAY BE ALLOWED TO DROP.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

FAIRLY TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER THIS PERIOD WITH MODEST SW
WINDS...GOOD VSBY AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

LOW RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS MONDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ230>234-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 301104
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
704 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND VERY HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF CT AND MA. NOT AS WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES
FRIDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AND PROBABLY INTO MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER MUCH OF
THE TIME DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

7 AM UPDATE...

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. STRATUS AND FOG LINGER ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI. THIS WILL BURN OFF DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. CLOUDINESS ALONG THE NY/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BORDER WILL
SLOWLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF HIGHER THETA-E AIRMASS ENTERING THE REGION. THESE
SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN NY STATE AND SLOWLY MOVING
EAST. HOWEVER THE BULK OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL BE FOCUSED
FROM 3 PM TO 9 PM...AS STATED BELOW BY PREVIOUS FORECASTER. UNTIL
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS ESPECIALLY OVER RI AND EASTERN MA.

OFF TO A VERY WARM START THIS MORNING WITH 7 AM TEMPS: 76
BOSTON...PROVIDENCE AND HARTFORD! VERY HUMID AS WELL WITH DEW PTS
ALREADY IN THE L70S ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA. EARLIER
DISCUSSION BELOW.

=====================================================================

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

**STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS
  AFTERNOON BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING**

STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY.
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW PUSHING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN MASS AND CONNECTICUT. FATHER EAST APPEARS
THE CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAIN SEEMS TO BE LOWER AS FORCING ALONG THE
FRONT WEAKENS. 00Z GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS A WAVE MOVING UP FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WHICH COULD SLOW DOWN THE PASSAGE FRONT ACROSS THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS TONIGHT. REGARDLESS APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO WESTERN MASS AROUND 18-21Z AND OFFSHORE BY 06Z.

DETAILS:

AHEAD OF THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PULL IN
MOISTURE TODAY BRINGING DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 70S. CLOUD COVER WILL
ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE WITHIN THE WAA PATTERN. WITH THIS AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE...COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
BREAK OUT ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 15-21Z. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION...BELIEVE MORE OF A CONVECTIVE
LINE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY AND MOVE INTO WESTERN
MASS. STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES SNE. POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...5 C/KM AND CLOUD
COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THE REGION SHOULD BE ABLE TO
DEVELOP AROUND 1000-1500 MLCAPE ACROSS THE INTERIOR GIVEN THE 70+
DEWPOINTS. 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR IS RATHER MARGINAL...BUT DOES INCREASE
TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES TOWARDS 00Z. SO ALTHOUGH
THE INSTABILITY/SHEAR IS MARGINAL...WE ARE CLOSER TO THE BETTER
FORCING AS HEIGHTS WILL BE DECREASING ALOFT. THEREFORE CANT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AS THE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH.

BIGGEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS APPEARS TO BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS
LEADING TO NUISANCE FLOODING AS PWAT VALUES ARE ABOUT 2+ INCHES.
GUSTY WINDS/LOCALIZED DOWNBURST ALSO CANNOT BE RULE OUT DUE TO THE
INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK
SPIN-UP DUE TO THE TROPICAL AIRMASS OVER THE REGION LEADING TO
LOW LCL/S...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

AS THE FRONT PASSES...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
DROPS OFF EAST OF THE WORCESTER HILLS. THIS IS DUE TO THE LOSS OF
INSTABILITY FROM SUNSET AS WELL AS LACK OF BETTER FORCING. STILL
CANT RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO
ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ONCE AGAIN TODAY. HOWEVER NOT AS
WARM AS YESTERDAY AS 925MB TEMPS ARE COOLER. SO TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S WITH A FEW SPOT 90S. BEST LOCATION TO
SEE 90+ WILL BE ACROSS THE MERRIMACK VALLEY...WHICH MAY SEE MORE SUN
VERSUS THE REST OF THE AREA. FINALLY SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR WIND GUSTS TO REACH BETWEEN
20-30 MPH ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
FRIDAY...

FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING LEADING TO A DESCENT DAY.
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM...HUMIDITY WILL BE LOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAYS. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL LEAD TO MIXING SO WINDS COULD
GET A TAD GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PATTERN CHANGE TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AND LOWER HUMIDITY

* LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER EACH DAY BUT
  MUCH OF THE TIME REMAINING DRY

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

ANOMALOUS CANADIAN VORTEX OVER HUDSON AND JAMES BAYS THIS PERIOD
RESULTS IN A MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS.
NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE THRU THIS BROAD TROUGH INTO NEW
ENGLAND THIS TIME PERIOD AND WILL RESULT IN A REINFORCING SURGE OF
DRIER AIR WITH EACH PASSING JET IMPULSE. THESE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
MAY YIELD A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED T-STORM WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS
DISPLAYING LARGE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THESE SHORT WAVES GIVEN THE
FAST/BROAD FLOW ALOFT. THUS LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF
CONVECTIVE THREAT. GIVEN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES A MODEL
BLEND PROVIDES THE MOST SKILL AND WILL USE THIS AS A BASIS FOR THIS
FORECAST.

DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT...DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY /DEW PTS IN THE
U50S TO L60S/ WITH POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVER THE REGION.

SATURDAY...LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NY STATE
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS LACKING AND
THIS SHOULD LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS TO WIDELY
SCATTERED. THUS MOST LOCATIONS REMAIN DRY. SEASONABLY WARM WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY...SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY DAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS
/H85 +15/ WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

MONDAY...ANOTHER POTENTIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THUS LOW RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS THIS
PERIOD. SEASONABLY WARM WITH H5 TEMPS AROUND +15C.

TUESDAY...CANADIAN VORTEX DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO QUEBEC WITH LOWERING
HEIGHTS AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD A
GREATER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS
LIKELY AHEAD OF MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT.

WEDNESDAY...ITS DAY 7 BUT GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THAT CLOSED LOW WILL BE OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WITH
MEAN TROUGH AXIS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. 925 MB AND 850 MB TEMPS ARE
ABOUT -1 STD DEVIATION COOLER THAN CLIMO. THUS COULD HAVE A PERIOD
OF SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

7 AM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 06Z AND 09Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT ACROSS THE
CAPE...ISLANDS AND SOUTH COAST WHERE FOG HAS DEVELOPED. CONDITIONS
COULD DROP DOWN TO IFR. ALSO NEED TO WATCH THE CT VALLEY.

BEFORE 18Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR TO START WITH LINGERING FOG
ALONG SOUTHERN TERMINALS. SCT SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDER OUT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD DROP CONDITIONS TO MVFR. WINDS ACROSS
THE SOUTH COAST COULD GUST OUT OF THE SW AROUND 25-30 KTS.

AFTER 18Z AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS...ESP ACROSS
THE SOUTH COAST. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST BEGINNING AROUND 18-21Z. THIS CONVECTIVE LINE COULD BRING
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS WESTERN MASS BEFORE FIZZLING OUT
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. ANTICIPATE ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS TO BE OUT OF THE REGION BY 06Z. PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORMAL PRONE REGIONS OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LINGERING FOG AND STRATUS WILL
DISSIPATE. EXPECT VFR WITH DIURNAL CU AND GUSTY WINDS AROUND 15-20
KTS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A PROBABILITY
THAT A STRONG STORM COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

VFR MUCH OF THE TIME WITH A LOW RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS SAT AND
AGAIN MONDAY. GREATER RISK FOR THUNDER MON. MODERATE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN NEAR SHORE SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...LONG SOUTHWEST FETCH WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO
BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET ACROSS MOST OPEN WATERS. SCA HEADLINES WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT
WILL NEED TO KEEP HEADLINES UP THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE OUTER-
WATERS FROM THE LEFT OVER SWELL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ON
FRIDAY SO SCA MAY BE ALLOWED TO DROP.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

FAIRLY TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER THIS PERIOD WITH MODEST SW
WINDS...GOOD VSBY AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

LOW RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS MONDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ230>234-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 301104
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
704 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND VERY HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF CT AND MA. NOT AS WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES
FRIDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AND PROBABLY INTO MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER MUCH OF
THE TIME DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

7 AM UPDATE...

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. STRATUS AND FOG LINGER ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI. THIS WILL BURN OFF DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. CLOUDINESS ALONG THE NY/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BORDER WILL
SLOWLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF HIGHER THETA-E AIRMASS ENTERING THE REGION. THESE
SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN NY STATE AND SLOWLY MOVING
EAST. HOWEVER THE BULK OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL BE FOCUSED
FROM 3 PM TO 9 PM...AS STATED BELOW BY PREVIOUS FORECASTER. UNTIL
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS ESPECIALLY OVER RI AND EASTERN MA.

OFF TO A VERY WARM START THIS MORNING WITH 7 AM TEMPS: 76
BOSTON...PROVIDENCE AND HARTFORD! VERY HUMID AS WELL WITH DEW PTS
ALREADY IN THE L70S ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA. EARLIER
DISCUSSION BELOW.

=====================================================================

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

**STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS
  AFTERNOON BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING**

STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY.
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW PUSHING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN MASS AND CONNECTICUT. FATHER EAST APPEARS
THE CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAIN SEEMS TO BE LOWER AS FORCING ALONG THE
FRONT WEAKENS. 00Z GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS A WAVE MOVING UP FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WHICH COULD SLOW DOWN THE PASSAGE FRONT ACROSS THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS TONIGHT. REGARDLESS APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO WESTERN MASS AROUND 18-21Z AND OFFSHORE BY 06Z.

DETAILS:

AHEAD OF THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PULL IN
MOISTURE TODAY BRINGING DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 70S. CLOUD COVER WILL
ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE WITHIN THE WAA PATTERN. WITH THIS AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE...COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
BREAK OUT ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 15-21Z. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION...BELIEVE MORE OF A CONVECTIVE
LINE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY AND MOVE INTO WESTERN
MASS. STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES SNE. POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...5 C/KM AND CLOUD
COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THE REGION SHOULD BE ABLE TO
DEVELOP AROUND 1000-1500 MLCAPE ACROSS THE INTERIOR GIVEN THE 70+
DEWPOINTS. 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR IS RATHER MARGINAL...BUT DOES INCREASE
TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES TOWARDS 00Z. SO ALTHOUGH
THE INSTABILITY/SHEAR IS MARGINAL...WE ARE CLOSER TO THE BETTER
FORCING AS HEIGHTS WILL BE DECREASING ALOFT. THEREFORE CANT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AS THE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH.

BIGGEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS APPEARS TO BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS
LEADING TO NUISANCE FLOODING AS PWAT VALUES ARE ABOUT 2+ INCHES.
GUSTY WINDS/LOCALIZED DOWNBURST ALSO CANNOT BE RULE OUT DUE TO THE
INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK
SPIN-UP DUE TO THE TROPICAL AIRMASS OVER THE REGION LEADING TO
LOW LCL/S...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

AS THE FRONT PASSES...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
DROPS OFF EAST OF THE WORCESTER HILLS. THIS IS DUE TO THE LOSS OF
INSTABILITY FROM SUNSET AS WELL AS LACK OF BETTER FORCING. STILL
CANT RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO
ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ONCE AGAIN TODAY. HOWEVER NOT AS
WARM AS YESTERDAY AS 925MB TEMPS ARE COOLER. SO TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S WITH A FEW SPOT 90S. BEST LOCATION TO
SEE 90+ WILL BE ACROSS THE MERRIMACK VALLEY...WHICH MAY SEE MORE SUN
VERSUS THE REST OF THE AREA. FINALLY SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR WIND GUSTS TO REACH BETWEEN
20-30 MPH ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
FRIDAY...

FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING LEADING TO A DESCENT DAY.
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM...HUMIDITY WILL BE LOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAYS. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL LEAD TO MIXING SO WINDS COULD
GET A TAD GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PATTERN CHANGE TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AND LOWER HUMIDITY

* LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER EACH DAY BUT
  MUCH OF THE TIME REMAINING DRY

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

ANOMALOUS CANADIAN VORTEX OVER HUDSON AND JAMES BAYS THIS PERIOD
RESULTS IN A MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS.
NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE THRU THIS BROAD TROUGH INTO NEW
ENGLAND THIS TIME PERIOD AND WILL RESULT IN A REINFORCING SURGE OF
DRIER AIR WITH EACH PASSING JET IMPULSE. THESE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
MAY YIELD A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED T-STORM WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS
DISPLAYING LARGE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THESE SHORT WAVES GIVEN THE
FAST/BROAD FLOW ALOFT. THUS LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF
CONVECTIVE THREAT. GIVEN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES A MODEL
BLEND PROVIDES THE MOST SKILL AND WILL USE THIS AS A BASIS FOR THIS
FORECAST.

DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT...DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY /DEW PTS IN THE
U50S TO L60S/ WITH POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVER THE REGION.

SATURDAY...LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NY STATE
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS LACKING AND
THIS SHOULD LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS TO WIDELY
SCATTERED. THUS MOST LOCATIONS REMAIN DRY. SEASONABLY WARM WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY...SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY DAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS
/H85 +15/ WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

MONDAY...ANOTHER POTENTIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THUS LOW RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS THIS
PERIOD. SEASONABLY WARM WITH H5 TEMPS AROUND +15C.

TUESDAY...CANADIAN VORTEX DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO QUEBEC WITH LOWERING
HEIGHTS AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD A
GREATER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS
LIKELY AHEAD OF MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT.

WEDNESDAY...ITS DAY 7 BUT GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THAT CLOSED LOW WILL BE OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WITH
MEAN TROUGH AXIS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. 925 MB AND 850 MB TEMPS ARE
ABOUT -1 STD DEVIATION COOLER THAN CLIMO. THUS COULD HAVE A PERIOD
OF SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

7 AM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 06Z AND 09Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT ACROSS THE
CAPE...ISLANDS AND SOUTH COAST WHERE FOG HAS DEVELOPED. CONDITIONS
COULD DROP DOWN TO IFR. ALSO NEED TO WATCH THE CT VALLEY.

BEFORE 18Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR TO START WITH LINGERING FOG
ALONG SOUTHERN TERMINALS. SCT SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDER OUT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD DROP CONDITIONS TO MVFR. WINDS ACROSS
THE SOUTH COAST COULD GUST OUT OF THE SW AROUND 25-30 KTS.

AFTER 18Z AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS...ESP ACROSS
THE SOUTH COAST. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST BEGINNING AROUND 18-21Z. THIS CONVECTIVE LINE COULD BRING
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS WESTERN MASS BEFORE FIZZLING OUT
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. ANTICIPATE ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS TO BE OUT OF THE REGION BY 06Z. PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORMAL PRONE REGIONS OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LINGERING FOG AND STRATUS WILL
DISSIPATE. EXPECT VFR WITH DIURNAL CU AND GUSTY WINDS AROUND 15-20
KTS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A PROBABILITY
THAT A STRONG STORM COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

VFR MUCH OF THE TIME WITH A LOW RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS SAT AND
AGAIN MONDAY. GREATER RISK FOR THUNDER MON. MODERATE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN NEAR SHORE SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...LONG SOUTHWEST FETCH WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO
BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET ACROSS MOST OPEN WATERS. SCA HEADLINES WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT
WILL NEED TO KEEP HEADLINES UP THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE OUTER-
WATERS FROM THE LEFT OVER SWELL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ON
FRIDAY SO SCA MAY BE ALLOWED TO DROP.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

FAIRLY TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER THIS PERIOD WITH MODEST SW
WINDS...GOOD VSBY AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

LOW RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS MONDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ230>234-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 301104
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
704 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND VERY HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF CT AND MA. NOT AS WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER ARRIVES
FRIDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AND PROBABLY INTO MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER MUCH OF
THE TIME DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

7 AM UPDATE...

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. STRATUS AND FOG LINGER ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI. THIS WILL BURN OFF DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. CLOUDINESS ALONG THE NY/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BORDER WILL
SLOWLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF HIGHER THETA-E AIRMASS ENTERING THE REGION. THESE
SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN NY STATE AND SLOWLY MOVING
EAST. HOWEVER THE BULK OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL BE FOCUSED
FROM 3 PM TO 9 PM...AS STATED BELOW BY PREVIOUS FORECASTER. UNTIL
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS ESPECIALLY OVER RI AND EASTERN MA.

OFF TO A VERY WARM START THIS MORNING WITH 7 AM TEMPS: 76
BOSTON...PROVIDENCE AND HARTFORD! VERY HUMID AS WELL WITH DEW PTS
ALREADY IN THE L70S ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA. EARLIER
DISCUSSION BELOW.

=====================================================================

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

**STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS
  AFTERNOON BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING**

STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY.
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW PUSHING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN MASS AND CONNECTICUT. FATHER EAST APPEARS
THE CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAIN SEEMS TO BE LOWER AS FORCING ALONG THE
FRONT WEAKENS. 00Z GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS A WAVE MOVING UP FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WHICH COULD SLOW DOWN THE PASSAGE FRONT ACROSS THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS TONIGHT. REGARDLESS APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO WESTERN MASS AROUND 18-21Z AND OFFSHORE BY 06Z.

DETAILS:

AHEAD OF THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PULL IN
MOISTURE TODAY BRINGING DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 70S. CLOUD COVER WILL
ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE WITHIN THE WAA PATTERN. WITH THIS AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE...COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
BREAK OUT ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 15-21Z. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION...BELIEVE MORE OF A CONVECTIVE
LINE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY AND MOVE INTO WESTERN
MASS. STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES SNE. POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...5 C/KM AND CLOUD
COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THE REGION SHOULD BE ABLE TO
DEVELOP AROUND 1000-1500 MLCAPE ACROSS THE INTERIOR GIVEN THE 70+
DEWPOINTS. 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR IS RATHER MARGINAL...BUT DOES INCREASE
TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES TOWARDS 00Z. SO ALTHOUGH
THE INSTABILITY/SHEAR IS MARGINAL...WE ARE CLOSER TO THE BETTER
FORCING AS HEIGHTS WILL BE DECREASING ALOFT. THEREFORE CANT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AS THE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH.

BIGGEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS APPEARS TO BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS
LEADING TO NUISANCE FLOODING AS PWAT VALUES ARE ABOUT 2+ INCHES.
GUSTY WINDS/LOCALIZED DOWNBURST ALSO CANNOT BE RULE OUT DUE TO THE
INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK
SPIN-UP DUE TO THE TROPICAL AIRMASS OVER THE REGION LEADING TO
LOW LCL/S...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

AS THE FRONT PASSES...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
DROPS OFF EAST OF THE WORCESTER HILLS. THIS IS DUE TO THE LOSS OF
INSTABILITY FROM SUNSET AS WELL AS LACK OF BETTER FORCING. STILL
CANT RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO
ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ONCE AGAIN TODAY. HOWEVER NOT AS
WARM AS YESTERDAY AS 925MB TEMPS ARE COOLER. SO TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S WITH A FEW SPOT 90S. BEST LOCATION TO
SEE 90+ WILL BE ACROSS THE MERRIMACK VALLEY...WHICH MAY SEE MORE SUN
VERSUS THE REST OF THE AREA. FINALLY SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR WIND GUSTS TO REACH BETWEEN
20-30 MPH ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
FRIDAY...

FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING LEADING TO A DESCENT DAY.
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM...HUMIDITY WILL BE LOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAYS. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL LEAD TO MIXING SO WINDS COULD
GET A TAD GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PATTERN CHANGE TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AND LOWER HUMIDITY

* LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER EACH DAY BUT
  MUCH OF THE TIME REMAINING DRY

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

ANOMALOUS CANADIAN VORTEX OVER HUDSON AND JAMES BAYS THIS PERIOD
RESULTS IN A MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS.
NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE THRU THIS BROAD TROUGH INTO NEW
ENGLAND THIS TIME PERIOD AND WILL RESULT IN A REINFORCING SURGE OF
DRIER AIR WITH EACH PASSING JET IMPULSE. THESE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
MAY YIELD A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED T-STORM WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS
DISPLAYING LARGE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THESE SHORT WAVES GIVEN THE
FAST/BROAD FLOW ALOFT. THUS LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF
CONVECTIVE THREAT. GIVEN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES A MODEL
BLEND PROVIDES THE MOST SKILL AND WILL USE THIS AS A BASIS FOR THIS
FORECAST.

DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT...DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY /DEW PTS IN THE
U50S TO L60S/ WITH POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVER THE REGION.

SATURDAY...LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NY STATE
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS LACKING AND
THIS SHOULD LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS TO WIDELY
SCATTERED. THUS MOST LOCATIONS REMAIN DRY. SEASONABLY WARM WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY...SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY DAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS
/H85 +15/ WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

MONDAY...ANOTHER POTENTIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THUS LOW RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS THIS
PERIOD. SEASONABLY WARM WITH H5 TEMPS AROUND +15C.

TUESDAY...CANADIAN VORTEX DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO QUEBEC WITH LOWERING
HEIGHTS AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD A
GREATER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS
LIKELY AHEAD OF MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT.

WEDNESDAY...ITS DAY 7 BUT GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THAT CLOSED LOW WILL BE OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WITH
MEAN TROUGH AXIS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. 925 MB AND 850 MB TEMPS ARE
ABOUT -1 STD DEVIATION COOLER THAN CLIMO. THUS COULD HAVE A PERIOD
OF SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

7 AM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 06Z AND 09Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

==================================================================

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT ACROSS THE
CAPE...ISLANDS AND SOUTH COAST WHERE FOG HAS DEVELOPED. CONDITIONS
COULD DROP DOWN TO IFR. ALSO NEED TO WATCH THE CT VALLEY.

BEFORE 18Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR TO START WITH LINGERING FOG
ALONG SOUTHERN TERMINALS. SCT SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDER OUT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD DROP CONDITIONS TO MVFR. WINDS ACROSS
THE SOUTH COAST COULD GUST OUT OF THE SW AROUND 25-30 KTS.

AFTER 18Z AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS...ESP ACROSS
THE SOUTH COAST. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST BEGINNING AROUND 18-21Z. THIS CONVECTIVE LINE COULD BRING
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS WESTERN MASS BEFORE FIZZLING OUT
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. ANTICIPATE ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS TO BE OUT OF THE REGION BY 06Z. PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORMAL PRONE REGIONS OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LINGERING FOG AND STRATUS WILL
DISSIPATE. EXPECT VFR WITH DIURNAL CU AND GUSTY WINDS AROUND 15-20
KTS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A PROBABILITY
THAT A STRONG STORM COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

VFR MUCH OF THE TIME WITH A LOW RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS SAT AND
AGAIN MONDAY. GREATER RISK FOR THUNDER MON. MODERATE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN NEAR SHORE SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...LONG SOUTHWEST FETCH WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO
BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET ACROSS MOST OPEN WATERS. SCA HEADLINES WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT
WILL NEED TO KEEP HEADLINES UP THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE OUTER-
WATERS FROM THE LEFT OVER SWELL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ON
FRIDAY SO SCA MAY BE ALLOWED TO DROP.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

FAIRLY TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER THIS PERIOD WITH MODEST SW
WINDS...GOOD VSBY AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

LOW RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS MONDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ230>234-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 300806
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
406 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY. AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF CT AND MA. NOT AS WARM AND LESS HUMID
WEATHER ARRIVES FRIDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AND PROBABLY
INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...HOWEVER MUCH OF THE TIME DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

4 AM UPDATE...

PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING.
BELIEVE THAT THE GUSTY SW WINDS ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS HAS KEPT
FOG FROM GOING DENSE. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

**STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS
  AFTERNOON BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING**

STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY.
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW PUSHING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN MASS AND CONNECTICUT. FATHER EAST APPEARS
THE CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAIN SEEMS TO BE LOWER AS FORCING ALONG THE
FRONT WEAKENS. 00Z GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS A WAVE MOVING UP FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WHICH COULD SLOW DOWN THE PASSAGE FRONT ACROSS THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS TONIGHT. REGARDLESS APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO WESTERN MASS AROUND 18-21Z AND OFFSHORE BY 06Z.

DETAILS:

AHEAD OF THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PULL IN
MOISTURE TODAY BRINGING DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 70S. CLOUD COVER WILL
ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE WITHIN THE WAA PATTERN. WITH THIS AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE...COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
BREAK OUT ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 15-21Z. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION...BELIEVE MORE OF A CONVECTIVE
LINE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY AND MOVE INTO WESTERN
MASS. STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES SNE. POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...5 C/KM AND CLOUD
COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THE REGION SHOULD BE ABLE TO
DEVELOP AROUND 1000-1500 MLCAPE ACROSS THE INTERIOR GIVEN THE 70+
DEWPOINTS. 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR IS RATHER MARGINAL...BUT DOES INCREASE
TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES TOWARDS 00Z. SO ALTHOUGH
THE INSTABILITY/SHEAR IS MARGINAL...WE ARE CLOSER TO THE BETTER
FORCING AS HEIGHTS WILL BE DECREASING ALOFT. THEREFORE CANT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AS THE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH.

BIGGEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS APPEARS TO BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS
LEADING TO NUISANCE FLOODING AS PWAT VALUES ARE ABOUT 2+ INCHES.
GUSTY WINDS/LOCALIZED DOWNBURST ALSO CANNOT BE RULE OUT DUE TO THE
INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK
SPIN-UP DUE TO THE TROPICAL AIRMASS OVER THE REGION LEADING TO
LOW LCL/S...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

AS THE FRONT PASSES...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
DROPS OFF EAST OF THE WORCESTER HILLS. THIS IS DUE TO THE LOSS OF
INSTABILITY FROM SUNSET AS WELL AS LACK OF BETTER FORCING. STILL
CANT RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO
ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ONCE AGAIN TODAY. HOWEVER NOT AS
WARM AS YESTERDAY AS 925MB TEMPS ARE COOLER. SO TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S WITH A FEW SPOT 90S. BEST LOCATION TO
SEE 90+ WILL BE ACROSS THE MERRIMACK VALLEY...WHICH MAY SEE MORE SUN
VERSUS THE REST OF THE AREA. FINALLY SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR WIND GUSTS TO REACH BETWEEN
20-30 MPH ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
FRIDAY...

FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING LEADING TO A DESCENT DAY.
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM...HUMIDITY WILL BE LOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAYS. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL LEAD TO MIXING SO WINDS COULD
GET A TAD GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PATTERN CHANGE TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AND LOWER HUMIDITY

* LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER EACH DAY BUT
  MUCH OF THE TIME REMAINING DRY

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

ANOMALOUS CANADIAN VORTEX OVER HUDSON AND JAMES BAYS THIS PERIOD
RESULTS IN A MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS.
NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE THRU THIS BROAD TROUGH INTO NEW
ENGLAND THIS TIME PERIOD AND WILL RESULT IN A REINFORCING SURGE OF
DRIER AIR WITH EACH PASSING JET IMPULSE. THESE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
MAY YIELD A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED T-STORM WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS
DISPLAYING LARGE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THESE SHORT WAVES GIVEN THE
FAST/BROAD FLOW ALOFT. THUS LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF
CONVECTIVE THREAT. GIVEN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES A MODEL
BLEND PROVIDES THE MOST SKILL AND WILL USE THIS AS A BASIS FOR THIS
FORECAST.

DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT...DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY /DEW PTS IN THE
U50S TO L60S/ WITH POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVER THE REGION.

SATURDAY...LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NY STATE
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS LACKING AND
THIS SHOULD LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS TO WIDELY
SCATTERED. THUS MOST LOCATIONS REMAIN DRY. SEASONABLY WARM WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY...SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY DAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS
/H85 +15/ WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

MONDAY...ANOTHER POTENTIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THUS LOW RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS THIS
PERIOD. SEASONABLY WARM WITH H5 TEMPS AROUND +15C.

TUESDAY...CANADIAN VORTEX DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO QUEBEC WITH LOWERING
HEIGHTS AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD A
GREATER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS
LIKELY AHEAD OF MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT.

WEDNESDAY...ITS DAY 7 BUT GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THAT CLOSED LOW WILL BE OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WITH
MEAN TROUGH AXIS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. 925 MB AND 850 MB TEMPS ARE
ABOUT -1 STD DEVIATION COOLER THAN CLIMO. THUS COULD HAVE A PERIOD
OF SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT ACROSS THE
CAPE...ISLANDS AND SOUTH COAST WHERE FOG HAS DEVELOPED. CONDITIONS
COULD DROP DOWN TO IFR. ALSO NEED TO WATCH THE CT VALLEY.

BEFORE 18Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR TO START WITH LINGERING FOG
ALONG SOUTHERN TERMINALS. SCT SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDER OUT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD DROP CONDITIONS TO MVFR. WINDS ACROSS
THE SOUTH COAST COULD GUST OUT OF THE SW AROUND 25-30 KTS.

AFTER 18Z AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS...ESP ACROSS
THE SOUTH COAST. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST BEGINNING AROUND 18-21Z. THIS CONVECTIVE LINE COULD BRING
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS WESTERN MASS BEFORE FIZZLING OUT
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. ANTICIPATE ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS TO BE OUT OF THE REGION BY 06Z. PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORMAL PRONE REGIONS OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LINGERING FOG AND STRATUS WILL
DISSIPATE. EXPECT VFR WITH DIURNAL CU AND GUSTY WINDS AROUND 15-20
KTS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A PROBABILITY
THAT A STRONG STORM COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

VFR MUCH OF THE TIME WITH A LOW RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS SAT AND
AGAIN MONDAY. GREATER RISK FOR THUNDER MON. MODERATE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN NEAR SHORE SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...LONG SOUTHWEST FETCH WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO
BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET ACROSS MOST OPEN WATERS. SCA HEADLINES WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT
WILL NEED TO KEEP HEADLINES UP THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE OUTER-
WATERS FROM THE LEFT OVER SWELL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ON
FRIDAY SO SCA MAY BE ALLOWED TO DROP.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

FAIRLY TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER THIS PERIOD WITH MODEST SW
WINDS...GOOD VSBY AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

LOW RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS MONDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ230>234-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 300806
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
406 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY. AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF CT AND MA. NOT AS WARM AND LESS HUMID
WEATHER ARRIVES FRIDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AND PROBABLY
INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...HOWEVER MUCH OF THE TIME DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

4 AM UPDATE...

PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING.
BELIEVE THAT THE GUSTY SW WINDS ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS HAS KEPT
FOG FROM GOING DENSE. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

**STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS
  AFTERNOON BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING**

STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY.
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW PUSHING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN MASS AND CONNECTICUT. FATHER EAST APPEARS
THE CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAIN SEEMS TO BE LOWER AS FORCING ALONG THE
FRONT WEAKENS. 00Z GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS A WAVE MOVING UP FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WHICH COULD SLOW DOWN THE PASSAGE FRONT ACROSS THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS TONIGHT. REGARDLESS APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO WESTERN MASS AROUND 18-21Z AND OFFSHORE BY 06Z.

DETAILS:

AHEAD OF THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PULL IN
MOISTURE TODAY BRINGING DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 70S. CLOUD COVER WILL
ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE WITHIN THE WAA PATTERN. WITH THIS AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE...COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
BREAK OUT ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 15-21Z. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION...BELIEVE MORE OF A CONVECTIVE
LINE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY AND MOVE INTO WESTERN
MASS. STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES SNE. POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...5 C/KM AND CLOUD
COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THE REGION SHOULD BE ABLE TO
DEVELOP AROUND 1000-1500 MLCAPE ACROSS THE INTERIOR GIVEN THE 70+
DEWPOINTS. 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR IS RATHER MARGINAL...BUT DOES INCREASE
TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES TOWARDS 00Z. SO ALTHOUGH
THE INSTABILITY/SHEAR IS MARGINAL...WE ARE CLOSER TO THE BETTER
FORCING AS HEIGHTS WILL BE DECREASING ALOFT. THEREFORE CANT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AS THE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH.

BIGGEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS APPEARS TO BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS
LEADING TO NUISANCE FLOODING AS PWAT VALUES ARE ABOUT 2+ INCHES.
GUSTY WINDS/LOCALIZED DOWNBURST ALSO CANNOT BE RULE OUT DUE TO THE
INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK
SPIN-UP DUE TO THE TROPICAL AIRMASS OVER THE REGION LEADING TO
LOW LCL/S...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

AS THE FRONT PASSES...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
DROPS OFF EAST OF THE WORCESTER HILLS. THIS IS DUE TO THE LOSS OF
INSTABILITY FROM SUNSET AS WELL AS LACK OF BETTER FORCING. STILL
CANT RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO
ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ONCE AGAIN TODAY. HOWEVER NOT AS
WARM AS YESTERDAY AS 925MB TEMPS ARE COOLER. SO TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S WITH A FEW SPOT 90S. BEST LOCATION TO
SEE 90+ WILL BE ACROSS THE MERRIMACK VALLEY...WHICH MAY SEE MORE SUN
VERSUS THE REST OF THE AREA. FINALLY SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR WIND GUSTS TO REACH BETWEEN
20-30 MPH ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
FRIDAY...

FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING LEADING TO A DESCENT DAY.
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM...HUMIDITY WILL BE LOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAYS. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL LEAD TO MIXING SO WINDS COULD
GET A TAD GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PATTERN CHANGE TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AND LOWER HUMIDITY

* LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER EACH DAY BUT
  MUCH OF THE TIME REMAINING DRY

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

ANOMALOUS CANADIAN VORTEX OVER HUDSON AND JAMES BAYS THIS PERIOD
RESULTS IN A MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS.
NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE THRU THIS BROAD TROUGH INTO NEW
ENGLAND THIS TIME PERIOD AND WILL RESULT IN A REINFORCING SURGE OF
DRIER AIR WITH EACH PASSING JET IMPULSE. THESE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
MAY YIELD A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED T-STORM WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS
DISPLAYING LARGE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THESE SHORT WAVES GIVEN THE
FAST/BROAD FLOW ALOFT. THUS LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF
CONVECTIVE THREAT. GIVEN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES A MODEL
BLEND PROVIDES THE MOST SKILL AND WILL USE THIS AS A BASIS FOR THIS
FORECAST.

DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT...DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY /DEW PTS IN THE
U50S TO L60S/ WITH POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVER THE REGION.

SATURDAY...LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NY STATE
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS LACKING AND
THIS SHOULD LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS TO WIDELY
SCATTERED. THUS MOST LOCATIONS REMAIN DRY. SEASONABLY WARM WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY...SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY DAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS
/H85 +15/ WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

MONDAY...ANOTHER POTENTIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THUS LOW RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS THIS
PERIOD. SEASONABLY WARM WITH H5 TEMPS AROUND +15C.

TUESDAY...CANADIAN VORTEX DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO QUEBEC WITH LOWERING
HEIGHTS AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD A
GREATER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS
LIKELY AHEAD OF MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT.

WEDNESDAY...ITS DAY 7 BUT GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THAT CLOSED LOW WILL BE OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WITH
MEAN TROUGH AXIS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. 925 MB AND 850 MB TEMPS ARE
ABOUT -1 STD DEVIATION COOLER THAN CLIMO. THUS COULD HAVE A PERIOD
OF SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT ACROSS THE
CAPE...ISLANDS AND SOUTH COAST WHERE FOG HAS DEVELOPED. CONDITIONS
COULD DROP DOWN TO IFR. ALSO NEED TO WATCH THE CT VALLEY.

BEFORE 18Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR TO START WITH LINGERING FOG
ALONG SOUTHERN TERMINALS. SCT SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDER OUT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD DROP CONDITIONS TO MVFR. WINDS ACROSS
THE SOUTH COAST COULD GUST OUT OF THE SW AROUND 25-30 KTS.

AFTER 18Z AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS...ESP ACROSS
THE SOUTH COAST. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST BEGINNING AROUND 18-21Z. THIS CONVECTIVE LINE COULD BRING
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS WESTERN MASS BEFORE FIZZLING OUT
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. ANTICIPATE ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS TO BE OUT OF THE REGION BY 06Z. PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORMAL PRONE REGIONS OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LINGERING FOG AND STRATUS WILL
DISSIPATE. EXPECT VFR WITH DIURNAL CU AND GUSTY WINDS AROUND 15-20
KTS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A PROBABILITY
THAT A STRONG STORM COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

VFR MUCH OF THE TIME WITH A LOW RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS SAT AND
AGAIN MONDAY. GREATER RISK FOR THUNDER MON. MODERATE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN NEAR SHORE SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...LONG SOUTHWEST FETCH WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO
BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET ACROSS MOST OPEN WATERS. SCA HEADLINES WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT
WILL NEED TO KEEP HEADLINES UP THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE OUTER-
WATERS FROM THE LEFT OVER SWELL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ON
FRIDAY SO SCA MAY BE ALLOWED TO DROP.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

FAIRLY TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER THIS PERIOD WITH MODEST SW
WINDS...GOOD VSBY AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

LOW RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS MONDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ230>234-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 300806
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
406 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY. AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF CT AND MA. NOT AS WARM AND LESS HUMID
WEATHER ARRIVES FRIDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AND PROBABLY
INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...HOWEVER MUCH OF THE TIME DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

4 AM UPDATE...

PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING.
BELIEVE THAT THE GUSTY SW WINDS ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS HAS KEPT
FOG FROM GOING DENSE. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

**STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS
  AFTERNOON BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING**

STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY.
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW PUSHING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN MASS AND CONNECTICUT. FATHER EAST APPEARS
THE CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAIN SEEMS TO BE LOWER AS FORCING ALONG THE
FRONT WEAKENS. 00Z GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS A WAVE MOVING UP FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WHICH COULD SLOW DOWN THE PASSAGE FRONT ACROSS THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS TONIGHT. REGARDLESS APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO WESTERN MASS AROUND 18-21Z AND OFFSHORE BY 06Z.

DETAILS:

AHEAD OF THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PULL IN
MOISTURE TODAY BRINGING DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 70S. CLOUD COVER WILL
ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE WITHIN THE WAA PATTERN. WITH THIS AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE...COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
BREAK OUT ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 15-21Z. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION...BELIEVE MORE OF A CONVECTIVE
LINE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY AND MOVE INTO WESTERN
MASS. STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES SNE. POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...5 C/KM AND CLOUD
COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THE REGION SHOULD BE ABLE TO
DEVELOP AROUND 1000-1500 MLCAPE ACROSS THE INTERIOR GIVEN THE 70+
DEWPOINTS. 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR IS RATHER MARGINAL...BUT DOES INCREASE
TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES TOWARDS 00Z. SO ALTHOUGH
THE INSTABILITY/SHEAR IS MARGINAL...WE ARE CLOSER TO THE BETTER
FORCING AS HEIGHTS WILL BE DECREASING ALOFT. THEREFORE CANT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AS THE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH.

BIGGEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS APPEARS TO BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS
LEADING TO NUISANCE FLOODING AS PWAT VALUES ARE ABOUT 2+ INCHES.
GUSTY WINDS/LOCALIZED DOWNBURST ALSO CANNOT BE RULE OUT DUE TO THE
INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK
SPIN-UP DUE TO THE TROPICAL AIRMASS OVER THE REGION LEADING TO
LOW LCL/S...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

AS THE FRONT PASSES...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
DROPS OFF EAST OF THE WORCESTER HILLS. THIS IS DUE TO THE LOSS OF
INSTABILITY FROM SUNSET AS WELL AS LACK OF BETTER FORCING. STILL
CANT RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO
ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ONCE AGAIN TODAY. HOWEVER NOT AS
WARM AS YESTERDAY AS 925MB TEMPS ARE COOLER. SO TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S WITH A FEW SPOT 90S. BEST LOCATION TO
SEE 90+ WILL BE ACROSS THE MERRIMACK VALLEY...WHICH MAY SEE MORE SUN
VERSUS THE REST OF THE AREA. FINALLY SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR WIND GUSTS TO REACH BETWEEN
20-30 MPH ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
FRIDAY...

FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING LEADING TO A DESCENT DAY.
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM...HUMIDITY WILL BE LOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAYS. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL LEAD TO MIXING SO WINDS COULD
GET A TAD GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PATTERN CHANGE TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AND LOWER HUMIDITY

* LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER EACH DAY BUT
  MUCH OF THE TIME REMAINING DRY

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

ANOMALOUS CANADIAN VORTEX OVER HUDSON AND JAMES BAYS THIS PERIOD
RESULTS IN A MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS.
NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE THRU THIS BROAD TROUGH INTO NEW
ENGLAND THIS TIME PERIOD AND WILL RESULT IN A REINFORCING SURGE OF
DRIER AIR WITH EACH PASSING JET IMPULSE. THESE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
MAY YIELD A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED T-STORM WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS
DISPLAYING LARGE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THESE SHORT WAVES GIVEN THE
FAST/BROAD FLOW ALOFT. THUS LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF
CONVECTIVE THREAT. GIVEN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES A MODEL
BLEND PROVIDES THE MOST SKILL AND WILL USE THIS AS A BASIS FOR THIS
FORECAST.

DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT...DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY /DEW PTS IN THE
U50S TO L60S/ WITH POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVER THE REGION.

SATURDAY...LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NY STATE
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS LACKING AND
THIS SHOULD LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS TO WIDELY
SCATTERED. THUS MOST LOCATIONS REMAIN DRY. SEASONABLY WARM WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY...SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY DAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS
/H85 +15/ WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

MONDAY...ANOTHER POTENTIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THUS LOW RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS THIS
PERIOD. SEASONABLY WARM WITH H5 TEMPS AROUND +15C.

TUESDAY...CANADIAN VORTEX DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO QUEBEC WITH LOWERING
HEIGHTS AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD A
GREATER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS
LIKELY AHEAD OF MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT.

WEDNESDAY...ITS DAY 7 BUT GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THAT CLOSED LOW WILL BE OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WITH
MEAN TROUGH AXIS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. 925 MB AND 850 MB TEMPS ARE
ABOUT -1 STD DEVIATION COOLER THAN CLIMO. THUS COULD HAVE A PERIOD
OF SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT ACROSS THE
CAPE...ISLANDS AND SOUTH COAST WHERE FOG HAS DEVELOPED. CONDITIONS
COULD DROP DOWN TO IFR. ALSO NEED TO WATCH THE CT VALLEY.

BEFORE 18Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR TO START WITH LINGERING FOG
ALONG SOUTHERN TERMINALS. SCT SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDER OUT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD DROP CONDITIONS TO MVFR. WINDS ACROSS
THE SOUTH COAST COULD GUST OUT OF THE SW AROUND 25-30 KTS.

AFTER 18Z AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS...ESP ACROSS
THE SOUTH COAST. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST BEGINNING AROUND 18-21Z. THIS CONVECTIVE LINE COULD BRING
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS WESTERN MASS BEFORE FIZZLING OUT
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. ANTICIPATE ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS TO BE OUT OF THE REGION BY 06Z. PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORMAL PRONE REGIONS OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LINGERING FOG AND STRATUS WILL
DISSIPATE. EXPECT VFR WITH DIURNAL CU AND GUSTY WINDS AROUND 15-20
KTS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A PROBABILITY
THAT A STRONG STORM COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

VFR MUCH OF THE TIME WITH A LOW RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS SAT AND
AGAIN MONDAY. GREATER RISK FOR THUNDER MON. MODERATE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN NEAR SHORE SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...LONG SOUTHWEST FETCH WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO
BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET ACROSS MOST OPEN WATERS. SCA HEADLINES WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT
WILL NEED TO KEEP HEADLINES UP THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE OUTER-
WATERS FROM THE LEFT OVER SWELL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ON
FRIDAY SO SCA MAY BE ALLOWED TO DROP.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

FAIRLY TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER THIS PERIOD WITH MODEST SW
WINDS...GOOD VSBY AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

LOW RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS MONDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ230>234-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 300806
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
406 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY. AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF CT AND MA. NOT AS WARM AND LESS HUMID
WEATHER ARRIVES FRIDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AND PROBABLY
INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...HOWEVER MUCH OF THE TIME DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

4 AM UPDATE...

PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING.
BELIEVE THAT THE GUSTY SW WINDS ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS HAS KEPT
FOG FROM GOING DENSE. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

**STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS
  AFTERNOON BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING**

STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY.
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW PUSHING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN MASS AND CONNECTICUT. FATHER EAST APPEARS
THE CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAIN SEEMS TO BE LOWER AS FORCING ALONG THE
FRONT WEAKENS. 00Z GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS A WAVE MOVING UP FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WHICH COULD SLOW DOWN THE PASSAGE FRONT ACROSS THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS TONIGHT. REGARDLESS APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO WESTERN MASS AROUND 18-21Z AND OFFSHORE BY 06Z.

DETAILS:

AHEAD OF THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PULL IN
MOISTURE TODAY BRINGING DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 70S. CLOUD COVER WILL
ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE WITHIN THE WAA PATTERN. WITH THIS AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE...COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
BREAK OUT ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 15-21Z. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION...BELIEVE MORE OF A CONVECTIVE
LINE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY AND MOVE INTO WESTERN
MASS. STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES SNE. POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...5 C/KM AND CLOUD
COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THE REGION SHOULD BE ABLE TO
DEVELOP AROUND 1000-1500 MLCAPE ACROSS THE INTERIOR GIVEN THE 70+
DEWPOINTS. 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR IS RATHER MARGINAL...BUT DOES INCREASE
TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES TOWARDS 00Z. SO ALTHOUGH
THE INSTABILITY/SHEAR IS MARGINAL...WE ARE CLOSER TO THE BETTER
FORCING AS HEIGHTS WILL BE DECREASING ALOFT. THEREFORE CANT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AS THE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH.

BIGGEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS APPEARS TO BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS
LEADING TO NUISANCE FLOODING AS PWAT VALUES ARE ABOUT 2+ INCHES.
GUSTY WINDS/LOCALIZED DOWNBURST ALSO CANNOT BE RULE OUT DUE TO THE
INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK
SPIN-UP DUE TO THE TROPICAL AIRMASS OVER THE REGION LEADING TO
LOW LCL/S...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

AS THE FRONT PASSES...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
DROPS OFF EAST OF THE WORCESTER HILLS. THIS IS DUE TO THE LOSS OF
INSTABILITY FROM SUNSET AS WELL AS LACK OF BETTER FORCING. STILL
CANT RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO
ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ONCE AGAIN TODAY. HOWEVER NOT AS
WARM AS YESTERDAY AS 925MB TEMPS ARE COOLER. SO TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S WITH A FEW SPOT 90S. BEST LOCATION TO
SEE 90+ WILL BE ACROSS THE MERRIMACK VALLEY...WHICH MAY SEE MORE SUN
VERSUS THE REST OF THE AREA. FINALLY SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR WIND GUSTS TO REACH BETWEEN
20-30 MPH ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
FRIDAY...

FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING LEADING TO A DESCENT DAY.
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM...HUMIDITY WILL BE LOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAYS. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL LEAD TO MIXING SO WINDS COULD
GET A TAD GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PATTERN CHANGE TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AND LOWER HUMIDITY

* LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER EACH DAY BUT
  MUCH OF THE TIME REMAINING DRY

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

ANOMALOUS CANADIAN VORTEX OVER HUDSON AND JAMES BAYS THIS PERIOD
RESULTS IN A MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS.
NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE THRU THIS BROAD TROUGH INTO NEW
ENGLAND THIS TIME PERIOD AND WILL RESULT IN A REINFORCING SURGE OF
DRIER AIR WITH EACH PASSING JET IMPULSE. THESE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
MAY YIELD A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED T-STORM WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS
DISPLAYING LARGE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THESE SHORT WAVES GIVEN THE
FAST/BROAD FLOW ALOFT. THUS LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF
CONVECTIVE THREAT. GIVEN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES A MODEL
BLEND PROVIDES THE MOST SKILL AND WILL USE THIS AS A BASIS FOR THIS
FORECAST.

DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT...DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY /DEW PTS IN THE
U50S TO L60S/ WITH POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVER THE REGION.

SATURDAY...LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NY STATE
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS LACKING AND
THIS SHOULD LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS TO WIDELY
SCATTERED. THUS MOST LOCATIONS REMAIN DRY. SEASONABLY WARM WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY...SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY DAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS
/H85 +15/ WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

MONDAY...ANOTHER POTENTIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THUS LOW RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS THIS
PERIOD. SEASONABLY WARM WITH H5 TEMPS AROUND +15C.

TUESDAY...CANADIAN VORTEX DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO QUEBEC WITH LOWERING
HEIGHTS AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD A
GREATER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS
LIKELY AHEAD OF MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT.

WEDNESDAY...ITS DAY 7 BUT GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THAT CLOSED LOW WILL BE OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WITH
MEAN TROUGH AXIS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. 925 MB AND 850 MB TEMPS ARE
ABOUT -1 STD DEVIATION COOLER THAN CLIMO. THUS COULD HAVE A PERIOD
OF SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT ACROSS THE
CAPE...ISLANDS AND SOUTH COAST WHERE FOG HAS DEVELOPED. CONDITIONS
COULD DROP DOWN TO IFR. ALSO NEED TO WATCH THE CT VALLEY.

BEFORE 18Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR TO START WITH LINGERING FOG
ALONG SOUTHERN TERMINALS. SCT SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDER OUT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD DROP CONDITIONS TO MVFR. WINDS ACROSS
THE SOUTH COAST COULD GUST OUT OF THE SW AROUND 25-30 KTS.

AFTER 18Z AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS...ESP ACROSS
THE SOUTH COAST. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST BEGINNING AROUND 18-21Z. THIS CONVECTIVE LINE COULD BRING
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS WESTERN MASS BEFORE FIZZLING OUT
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. ANTICIPATE ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS TO BE OUT OF THE REGION BY 06Z. PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORMAL PRONE REGIONS OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LINGERING FOG AND STRATUS WILL
DISSIPATE. EXPECT VFR WITH DIURNAL CU AND GUSTY WINDS AROUND 15-20
KTS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A PROBABILITY
THAT A STRONG STORM COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

VFR MUCH OF THE TIME WITH A LOW RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS SAT AND
AGAIN MONDAY. GREATER RISK FOR THUNDER MON. MODERATE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN NEAR SHORE SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...LONG SOUTHWEST FETCH WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO
BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET ACROSS MOST OPEN WATERS. SCA HEADLINES WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT
WILL NEED TO KEEP HEADLINES UP THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE OUTER-
WATERS FROM THE LEFT OVER SWELL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ON
FRIDAY SO SCA MAY BE ALLOWED TO DROP.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

FAIRLY TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER THIS PERIOD WITH MODEST SW
WINDS...GOOD VSBY AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

LOW RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS MONDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ230>234-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 300806
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
406 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY. AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF CT AND MA. NOT AS WARM AND LESS HUMID
WEATHER ARRIVES FRIDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AND PROBABLY
INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...HOWEVER MUCH OF THE TIME DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

4 AM UPDATE...

PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING.
BELIEVE THAT THE GUSTY SW WINDS ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS HAS KEPT
FOG FROM GOING DENSE. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

**STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS
  AFTERNOON BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING**

STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY.
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW PUSHING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN MASS AND CONNECTICUT. FATHER EAST APPEARS
THE CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAIN SEEMS TO BE LOWER AS FORCING ALONG THE
FRONT WEAKENS. 00Z GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS A WAVE MOVING UP FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WHICH COULD SLOW DOWN THE PASSAGE FRONT ACROSS THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS TONIGHT. REGARDLESS APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO WESTERN MASS AROUND 18-21Z AND OFFSHORE BY 06Z.

DETAILS:

AHEAD OF THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PULL IN
MOISTURE TODAY BRINGING DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 70S. CLOUD COVER WILL
ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE WITHIN THE WAA PATTERN. WITH THIS AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE...COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
BREAK OUT ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 15-21Z. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION...BELIEVE MORE OF A CONVECTIVE
LINE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY AND MOVE INTO WESTERN
MASS. STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES SNE. POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...5 C/KM AND CLOUD
COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THE REGION SHOULD BE ABLE TO
DEVELOP AROUND 1000-1500 MLCAPE ACROSS THE INTERIOR GIVEN THE 70+
DEWPOINTS. 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR IS RATHER MARGINAL...BUT DOES INCREASE
TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES TOWARDS 00Z. SO ALTHOUGH
THE INSTABILITY/SHEAR IS MARGINAL...WE ARE CLOSER TO THE BETTER
FORCING AS HEIGHTS WILL BE DECREASING ALOFT. THEREFORE CANT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AS THE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH.

BIGGEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS APPEARS TO BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS
LEADING TO NUISANCE FLOODING AS PWAT VALUES ARE ABOUT 2+ INCHES.
GUSTY WINDS/LOCALIZED DOWNBURST ALSO CANNOT BE RULE OUT DUE TO THE
INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK
SPIN-UP DUE TO THE TROPICAL AIRMASS OVER THE REGION LEADING TO
LOW LCL/S...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

AS THE FRONT PASSES...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
DROPS OFF EAST OF THE WORCESTER HILLS. THIS IS DUE TO THE LOSS OF
INSTABILITY FROM SUNSET AS WELL AS LACK OF BETTER FORCING. STILL
CANT RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO
ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ONCE AGAIN TODAY. HOWEVER NOT AS
WARM AS YESTERDAY AS 925MB TEMPS ARE COOLER. SO TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S WITH A FEW SPOT 90S. BEST LOCATION TO
SEE 90+ WILL BE ACROSS THE MERRIMACK VALLEY...WHICH MAY SEE MORE SUN
VERSUS THE REST OF THE AREA. FINALLY SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR WIND GUSTS TO REACH BETWEEN
20-30 MPH ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
FRIDAY...

FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING LEADING TO A DESCENT DAY.
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM...HUMIDITY WILL BE LOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAYS. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL LEAD TO MIXING SO WINDS COULD
GET A TAD GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PATTERN CHANGE TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AND LOWER HUMIDITY

* LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER EACH DAY BUT
  MUCH OF THE TIME REMAINING DRY

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

ANOMALOUS CANADIAN VORTEX OVER HUDSON AND JAMES BAYS THIS PERIOD
RESULTS IN A MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS.
NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE THRU THIS BROAD TROUGH INTO NEW
ENGLAND THIS TIME PERIOD AND WILL RESULT IN A REINFORCING SURGE OF
DRIER AIR WITH EACH PASSING JET IMPULSE. THESE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
MAY YIELD A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED T-STORM WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS
DISPLAYING LARGE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THESE SHORT WAVES GIVEN THE
FAST/BROAD FLOW ALOFT. THUS LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF
CONVECTIVE THREAT. GIVEN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES A MODEL
BLEND PROVIDES THE MOST SKILL AND WILL USE THIS AS A BASIS FOR THIS
FORECAST.

DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT...DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY /DEW PTS IN THE
U50S TO L60S/ WITH POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVER THE REGION.

SATURDAY...LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NY STATE
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS LACKING AND
THIS SHOULD LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS TO WIDELY
SCATTERED. THUS MOST LOCATIONS REMAIN DRY. SEASONABLY WARM WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY...SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY DAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS
/H85 +15/ WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

MONDAY...ANOTHER POTENTIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THUS LOW RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS THIS
PERIOD. SEASONABLY WARM WITH H5 TEMPS AROUND +15C.

TUESDAY...CANADIAN VORTEX DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO QUEBEC WITH LOWERING
HEIGHTS AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD A
GREATER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS
LIKELY AHEAD OF MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT.

WEDNESDAY...ITS DAY 7 BUT GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THAT CLOSED LOW WILL BE OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WITH
MEAN TROUGH AXIS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. 925 MB AND 850 MB TEMPS ARE
ABOUT -1 STD DEVIATION COOLER THAN CLIMO. THUS COULD HAVE A PERIOD
OF SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT ACROSS THE
CAPE...ISLANDS AND SOUTH COAST WHERE FOG HAS DEVELOPED. CONDITIONS
COULD DROP DOWN TO IFR. ALSO NEED TO WATCH THE CT VALLEY.

BEFORE 18Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR TO START WITH LINGERING FOG
ALONG SOUTHERN TERMINALS. SCT SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDER OUT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD DROP CONDITIONS TO MVFR. WINDS ACROSS
THE SOUTH COAST COULD GUST OUT OF THE SW AROUND 25-30 KTS.

AFTER 18Z AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS...ESP ACROSS
THE SOUTH COAST. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST BEGINNING AROUND 18-21Z. THIS CONVECTIVE LINE COULD BRING
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS WESTERN MASS BEFORE FIZZLING OUT
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. ANTICIPATE ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS TO BE OUT OF THE REGION BY 06Z. PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORMAL PRONE REGIONS OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LINGERING FOG AND STRATUS WILL
DISSIPATE. EXPECT VFR WITH DIURNAL CU AND GUSTY WINDS AROUND 15-20
KTS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A PROBABILITY
THAT A STRONG STORM COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

VFR MUCH OF THE TIME WITH A LOW RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS SAT AND
AGAIN MONDAY. GREATER RISK FOR THUNDER MON. MODERATE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN NEAR SHORE SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...LONG SOUTHWEST FETCH WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO
BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET ACROSS MOST OPEN WATERS. SCA HEADLINES WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT
WILL NEED TO KEEP HEADLINES UP THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE OUTER-
WATERS FROM THE LEFT OVER SWELL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ON
FRIDAY SO SCA MAY BE ALLOWED TO DROP.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

FAIRLY TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER THIS PERIOD WITH MODEST SW
WINDS...GOOD VSBY AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

LOW RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS MONDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ230>234-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN




000
FXUS61 KBOX 300806
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
406 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY. AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF CT AND MA. NOT AS WARM AND LESS HUMID
WEATHER ARRIVES FRIDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AND PROBABLY
INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...HOWEVER MUCH OF THE TIME DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

4 AM UPDATE...

PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING.
BELIEVE THAT THE GUSTY SW WINDS ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS HAS KEPT
FOG FROM GOING DENSE. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

**STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS
  AFTERNOON BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING**

STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY.
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW PUSHING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN MASS AND CONNECTICUT. FATHER EAST APPEARS
THE CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAIN SEEMS TO BE LOWER AS FORCING ALONG THE
FRONT WEAKENS. 00Z GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS A WAVE MOVING UP FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WHICH COULD SLOW DOWN THE PASSAGE FRONT ACROSS THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS TONIGHT. REGARDLESS APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO WESTERN MASS AROUND 18-21Z AND OFFSHORE BY 06Z.

DETAILS:

AHEAD OF THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PULL IN
MOISTURE TODAY BRINGING DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 70S. CLOUD COVER WILL
ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE WITHIN THE WAA PATTERN. WITH THIS AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE...COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
BREAK OUT ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 15-21Z. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION...BELIEVE MORE OF A CONVECTIVE
LINE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY AND MOVE INTO WESTERN
MASS. STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES SNE. POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...5 C/KM AND CLOUD
COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THE REGION SHOULD BE ABLE TO
DEVELOP AROUND 1000-1500 MLCAPE ACROSS THE INTERIOR GIVEN THE 70+
DEWPOINTS. 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR IS RATHER MARGINAL...BUT DOES INCREASE
TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES TOWARDS 00Z. SO ALTHOUGH
THE INSTABILITY/SHEAR IS MARGINAL...WE ARE CLOSER TO THE BETTER
FORCING AS HEIGHTS WILL BE DECREASING ALOFT. THEREFORE CANT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AS THE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH.

BIGGEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS APPEARS TO BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS
LEADING TO NUISANCE FLOODING AS PWAT VALUES ARE ABOUT 2+ INCHES.
GUSTY WINDS/LOCALIZED DOWNBURST ALSO CANNOT BE RULE OUT DUE TO THE
INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK
SPIN-UP DUE TO THE TROPICAL AIRMASS OVER THE REGION LEADING TO
LOW LCL/S...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

AS THE FRONT PASSES...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
DROPS OFF EAST OF THE WORCESTER HILLS. THIS IS DUE TO THE LOSS OF
INSTABILITY FROM SUNSET AS WELL AS LACK OF BETTER FORCING. STILL
CANT RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO
ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ONCE AGAIN TODAY. HOWEVER NOT AS
WARM AS YESTERDAY AS 925MB TEMPS ARE COOLER. SO TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S WITH A FEW SPOT 90S. BEST LOCATION TO
SEE 90+ WILL BE ACROSS THE MERRIMACK VALLEY...WHICH MAY SEE MORE SUN
VERSUS THE REST OF THE AREA. FINALLY SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR WIND GUSTS TO REACH BETWEEN
20-30 MPH ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
FRIDAY...

FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING LEADING TO A DESCENT DAY.
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM...HUMIDITY WILL BE LOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAYS. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL LEAD TO MIXING SO WINDS COULD
GET A TAD GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PATTERN CHANGE TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AND LOWER HUMIDITY

* LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER EACH DAY BUT
  MUCH OF THE TIME REMAINING DRY

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

ANOMALOUS CANADIAN VORTEX OVER HUDSON AND JAMES BAYS THIS PERIOD
RESULTS IN A MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS.
NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE THRU THIS BROAD TROUGH INTO NEW
ENGLAND THIS TIME PERIOD AND WILL RESULT IN A REINFORCING SURGE OF
DRIER AIR WITH EACH PASSING JET IMPULSE. THESE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
MAY YIELD A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED T-STORM WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS
DISPLAYING LARGE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THESE SHORT WAVES GIVEN THE
FAST/BROAD FLOW ALOFT. THUS LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF
CONVECTIVE THREAT. GIVEN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES A MODEL
BLEND PROVIDES THE MOST SKILL AND WILL USE THIS AS A BASIS FOR THIS
FORECAST.

DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT...DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY /DEW PTS IN THE
U50S TO L60S/ WITH POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVER THE REGION.

SATURDAY...LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NY STATE
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS LACKING AND
THIS SHOULD LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS TO WIDELY
SCATTERED. THUS MOST LOCATIONS REMAIN DRY. SEASONABLY WARM WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY...SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY DAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS
/H85 +15/ WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

MONDAY...ANOTHER POTENTIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THUS LOW RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS THIS
PERIOD. SEASONABLY WARM WITH H5 TEMPS AROUND +15C.

TUESDAY...CANADIAN VORTEX DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO QUEBEC WITH LOWERING
HEIGHTS AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD A
GREATER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS
LIKELY AHEAD OF MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT.

WEDNESDAY...ITS DAY 7 BUT GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THAT CLOSED LOW WILL BE OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WITH
MEAN TROUGH AXIS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. 925 MB AND 850 MB TEMPS ARE
ABOUT -1 STD DEVIATION COOLER THAN CLIMO. THUS COULD HAVE A PERIOD
OF SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT ACROSS THE
CAPE...ISLANDS AND SOUTH COAST WHERE FOG HAS DEVELOPED. CONDITIONS
COULD DROP DOWN TO IFR. ALSO NEED TO WATCH THE CT VALLEY.

BEFORE 18Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR TO START WITH LINGERING FOG
ALONG SOUTHERN TERMINALS. SCT SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDER OUT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD DROP CONDITIONS TO MVFR. WINDS ACROSS
THE SOUTH COAST COULD GUST OUT OF THE SW AROUND 25-30 KTS.

AFTER 18Z AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS...ESP ACROSS
THE SOUTH COAST. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST BEGINNING AROUND 18-21Z. THIS CONVECTIVE LINE COULD BRING
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS WESTERN MASS BEFORE FIZZLING OUT
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. ANTICIPATE ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS TO BE OUT OF THE REGION BY 06Z. PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORMAL PRONE REGIONS OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LINGERING FOG AND STRATUS WILL
DISSIPATE. EXPECT VFR WITH DIURNAL CU AND GUSTY WINDS AROUND 15-20
KTS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A PROBABILITY
THAT A STRONG STORM COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

VFR MUCH OF THE TIME WITH A LOW RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS SAT AND
AGAIN MONDAY. GREATER RISK FOR THUNDER MON. MODERATE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN NEAR SHORE SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...LONG SOUTHWEST FETCH WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO
BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET ACROSS MOST OPEN WATERS. SCA HEADLINES WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT
WILL NEED TO KEEP HEADLINES UP THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE OUTER-
WATERS FROM THE LEFT OVER SWELL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ON
FRIDAY SO SCA MAY BE ALLOWED TO DROP.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

FAIRLY TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER THIS PERIOD WITH MODEST SW
WINDS...GOOD VSBY AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

LOW RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS MONDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ230>234-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN



000
FXUS61 KBOX 300738
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
338 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY. AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF CT AND MA. NOT AS WARM AND LESS HUMID
WEATHER ARRIVES FRIDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AND PROBABLY
INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...HOWEVER MUCH OF THE TIME DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

2 AM UPDATE...

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EARLY THIS MORNING. DRY WEATHER
WILL PREVAIL AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE REGION. A
STICKY NIGHT IS AHEAD AS DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S. THIS COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL HELP FOG BECOME ANOTHER
ISSUE TONIGHT. RIGHT NOW LOW STRATUS IS SITTING JUST OFF THE COAST
OF ACK AND COULD MOVE ONTO THE CAPE. MAY NEED TO WATCH THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS FOR FOG.

LOW TEMPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS WILL ONLY DROP TO BETWEEN 70 AND 75
WITH A FEW UPPER 60S POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...

***SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN AND THE
  POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
  EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND***

***A SECONDARY CONCERN WILL BE FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
  THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN
  MA AND NORTHERN CT***

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL TRANSPORT DEEP MOISTURE
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW PWATS EXCEEDING 2+
INCHES AND A SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JUST OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS.  WE MAY SEE
SOME PEEKS OF SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...BUT SHOULD SEE CLOUDS BEGIN
TO DOMINATE IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION MOISTURE.  GIVEN THE DEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BREAK OUT ANYWHERE ACROSS THE REGION BY THU AFTERNOON AND
PERHAPS EVEN EARLIER.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS ACTIVITY.

THE MAIN SHOW WILL ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY TO
SOME DEGREE.  NONETHELESS...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP AROUND 1000
MLCAPES ACROSS THE INTERIOR GIVEN 70+ DEWPOINTS IN PLACE.  0 TO 6 KM
SHEAR IS RATHER MARGINAL...BUT DOES INCREASE TO BETWEEN 30 AND 35
KNOTS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES TOWARDS 00Z.  A LOT OF THE
MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WORKING INTO WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT SOMETIME LATE THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THAT ACTIVITY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES EAST INTO AN
ENVIRONMENT WITH LESS INSTABILITY WHICH IS TYPICAL WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.  BULK OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE
COASTAL PLAIN BY MIDNIGHT...BUT LINGERING ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

SO TO SUM UP...HEAVY RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED STREET
FLOODING ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS.  HOWEVER...A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT.
THE MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE LOCALIZED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
THE HAIL THREAT IS RATHER LOW GIVEN 500 MB TEMPS OF AROUND -6C AND
POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

ONE LITTLE NUANCE WE WANTED TO MENTION WAS THE LOW RISK FOR A BRIEF
WEAK TORNADO ACROSS WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT.  THERE IS ABOUT 25
TO 30 KNOTS OF WIND OFF THE DECK WITH RGEM/NAM SHOWING 0 TO 1 KM
HELICITY VALUES NEAR OR OVER 100.  GIVEN 70+ DEWPOINTS AND LOW LCL/S
THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR THAT.

HIGH TEMPS THU SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90...BUT A
FEW PLACES ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND MAY END UP A FEW DEGREES
WARMER IF THEY SEE A LONGER PERIOD OF SUNSHINE.  EITHER WAY IT WILL
BE VERY HUMID WITH 70+ DEWPOINTS. LOW TEMPS THU NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
60S TO NEAR 70 AND AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* PATTERN CHANGE TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AND LOWER HUMIDITY

* LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER EACH DAY BUT
  MUCH OF THE TIME REMAINING DRY

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

ANOMALOUS CANADIAN VORTEX OVER HUDSON AND JAMES BAYS THIS PERIOD
RESULTS IN A MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS.
NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE THRU THIS BROAD TROUGH INTO NEW
ENGLAND THIS TIME PERIOD AND WILL RESULT IN A REINFORCING SURGE OF
DRIER AIR WITH EACH PASSING JET IMPULSE. THESE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
MAY YIELD A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED T-STORM WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS
DISPLAYING LARGE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THESE SHORT WAVES GIVEN THE
FAST/BROAD FLOW ALOFT. THUS LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF
CONVECTIVE THREAT. GIVEN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES A MODEL
BLEND PROVIDES THE MOST SKILL AND WILL USE THIS AS A BASIS FOR THIS
FORECAST.

DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT...DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY /DEW PTS IN THE
U50S TO L60S/ WITH POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVER THE REGION.

SATURDAY...LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NY STATE
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS LACKING AND
THIS SHOULD LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS TO WIDELY
SCATTERED. THUS MOST LOCATIONS REMAIN DRY. SEASONABLY WARM WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY...SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY DAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS
/H85 +15/ WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

MONDAY...ANOTHER POTENTIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THUS LOW RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS THIS
PERIOD. SEASONABLY WARM WITH H5 TEMPS AROUND +15C.

TUESDAY...CANADIAN VORTEX DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO QUEBEC WITH LOWERING
HEIGHTS AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD A
GREATER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS
LIKELY AHEAD OF MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT.

WEDNESDAY...ITS DAY 7 BUT GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THAT CLOSED LOW WILL BE OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WITH
MEAN TROUGH AXIS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. 925 MB AND 850 MB TEMPS ARE
ABOUT -1 STD DEVIATION COOLER THAN CLIMO. THUS COULD HAVE A PERIOD
OF SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT ACROSS THE
CAPE...ISLANDS AND SOUTH COAST WHERE FOG HAS DEVELOPED. CONDITIONS
COULD DROP DOWN TO IFR. ALSO NEED TO WATCH THE CT VALLEY.

BEFORE 18Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR TO START WITH LINGERING FOG
ALONG SOUTHERN TERMINALS. SCT SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDER OUT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD DROP CONDITIONS TO MVFR. WINDS ACROSS
THE SOUTH COAST COULD GUST OUT OF THE SW AROUND 25-30 KTS.

AFTER 18Z AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS...ESP ACROSS
THE SOUTH COAST. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST BEGINNING AROUND 18-21Z. THIS CONVECTIVE LINE COULD BRING
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS WESTERN MASS BEFORE FIZZLING OUT
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. ANTICIPATE ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS TO BE OUT OF THE REGION BY 06Z. PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORMAL PRONE REGIONS OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LINGERING FOG AND STRATUS WILL
DISSIPATE. EXPECT VFR WITH DIURNAL CU AND GUSTY WINDS AROUND 15-20
KTS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A PROBABILITY
THAT A STRONG STORM COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

VFR MUCH OF THE TIME WITH A LOW RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS SAT AND
AGAIN MONDAY. GREATER RISK FOR THUNDER MON. MODERATE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS
AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.  MAY SEE SOME AREAS
OF FOG DEVELOP LATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN NEAR SHORE SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS DEVELOPING THU AFTERNOON.  IN
ADDITION...LONG SOUTHWEST FETCH WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO
BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET ACROSS MOST OPEN WATERS.  SCA HEADLINES GO INTO
EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THU AFTERNOON.  WINDS DIMINISH THU
EVENING...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP HEADLINES UP THROUGH THU NIGHT FOR
THE OUTER-WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT FROM THE LEFT OVER SWELL.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

FAIRLY TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER THIS PERIOD WITH MODEST SW
WINDS...GOOD VSBY AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

LOW RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS MONDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ230>234-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 300738
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
338 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY. AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF CT AND MA. NOT AS WARM AND LESS HUMID
WEATHER ARRIVES FRIDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AND PROBABLY
INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...HOWEVER MUCH OF THE TIME DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

2 AM UPDATE...

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EARLY THIS MORNING. DRY WEATHER
WILL PREVAIL AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE REGION. A
STICKY NIGHT IS AHEAD AS DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S. THIS COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL HELP FOG BECOME ANOTHER
ISSUE TONIGHT. RIGHT NOW LOW STRATUS IS SITTING JUST OFF THE COAST
OF ACK AND COULD MOVE ONTO THE CAPE. MAY NEED TO WATCH THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS FOR FOG.

LOW TEMPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS WILL ONLY DROP TO BETWEEN 70 AND 75
WITH A FEW UPPER 60S POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...

***SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN AND THE
  POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
  EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND***

***A SECONDARY CONCERN WILL BE FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
  THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN
  MA AND NORTHERN CT***

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL TRANSPORT DEEP MOISTURE
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW PWATS EXCEEDING 2+
INCHES AND A SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JUST OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS.  WE MAY SEE
SOME PEEKS OF SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...BUT SHOULD SEE CLOUDS BEGIN
TO DOMINATE IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION MOISTURE.  GIVEN THE DEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BREAK OUT ANYWHERE ACROSS THE REGION BY THU AFTERNOON AND
PERHAPS EVEN EARLIER.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS ACTIVITY.

THE MAIN SHOW WILL ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY TO
SOME DEGREE.  NONETHELESS...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP AROUND 1000
MLCAPES ACROSS THE INTERIOR GIVEN 70+ DEWPOINTS IN PLACE.  0 TO 6 KM
SHEAR IS RATHER MARGINAL...BUT DOES INCREASE TO BETWEEN 30 AND 35
KNOTS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES TOWARDS 00Z.  A LOT OF THE
MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WORKING INTO WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT SOMETIME LATE THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THAT ACTIVITY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES EAST INTO AN
ENVIRONMENT WITH LESS INSTABILITY WHICH IS TYPICAL WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.  BULK OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE
COASTAL PLAIN BY MIDNIGHT...BUT LINGERING ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

SO TO SUM UP...HEAVY RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED STREET
FLOODING ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS.  HOWEVER...A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT.
THE MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE LOCALIZED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
THE HAIL THREAT IS RATHER LOW GIVEN 500 MB TEMPS OF AROUND -6C AND
POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

ONE LITTLE NUANCE WE WANTED TO MENTION WAS THE LOW RISK FOR A BRIEF
WEAK TORNADO ACROSS WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT.  THERE IS ABOUT 25
TO 30 KNOTS OF WIND OFF THE DECK WITH RGEM/NAM SHOWING 0 TO 1 KM
HELICITY VALUES NEAR OR OVER 100.  GIVEN 70+ DEWPOINTS AND LOW LCL/S
THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR THAT.

HIGH TEMPS THU SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90...BUT A
FEW PLACES ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND MAY END UP A FEW DEGREES
WARMER IF THEY SEE A LONGER PERIOD OF SUNSHINE.  EITHER WAY IT WILL
BE VERY HUMID WITH 70+ DEWPOINTS. LOW TEMPS THU NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
60S TO NEAR 70 AND AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* PATTERN CHANGE TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AND LOWER HUMIDITY

* LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER EACH DAY BUT
  MUCH OF THE TIME REMAINING DRY

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

ANOMALOUS CANADIAN VORTEX OVER HUDSON AND JAMES BAYS THIS PERIOD
RESULTS IN A MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS.
NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE THRU THIS BROAD TROUGH INTO NEW
ENGLAND THIS TIME PERIOD AND WILL RESULT IN A REINFORCING SURGE OF
DRIER AIR WITH EACH PASSING JET IMPULSE. THESE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
MAY YIELD A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED T-STORM WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HOWEVER GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS
DISPLAYING LARGE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THESE SHORT WAVES GIVEN THE
FAST/BROAD FLOW ALOFT. THUS LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF
CONVECTIVE THREAT. GIVEN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES A MODEL
BLEND PROVIDES THE MOST SKILL AND WILL USE THIS AS A BASIS FOR THIS
FORECAST.

DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

FRI NIGHT...DRY WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY /DEW PTS IN THE
U50S TO L60S/ WITH POST FRONTAL AIRMASS OVER THE REGION.

SATURDAY...LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NY STATE
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS LACKING AND
THIS SHOULD LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS TO WIDELY
SCATTERED. THUS MOST LOCATIONS REMAIN DRY. SEASONABLY WARM WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY...SHOULD BE A MAINLY DRY DAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS
/H85 +15/ WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

MONDAY...ANOTHER POTENTIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THUS LOW RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS THIS
PERIOD. SEASONABLY WARM WITH H5 TEMPS AROUND +15C.

TUESDAY...CANADIAN VORTEX DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO QUEBEC WITH LOWERING
HEIGHTS AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD YIELD A
GREATER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS
LIKELY AHEAD OF MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT.

WEDNESDAY...ITS DAY 7 BUT GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THAT CLOSED LOW WILL BE OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WITH
MEAN TROUGH AXIS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. 925 MB AND 850 MB TEMPS ARE
ABOUT -1 STD DEVIATION COOLER THAN CLIMO. THUS COULD HAVE A PERIOD
OF SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT ACROSS THE
CAPE...ISLANDS AND SOUTH COAST WHERE FOG HAS DEVELOPED. CONDITIONS
COULD DROP DOWN TO IFR. ALSO NEED TO WATCH THE CT VALLEY.

BEFORE 18Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR TO START WITH LINGERING FOG
ALONG SOUTHERN TERMINALS. SCT SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDER OUT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD DROP CONDITIONS TO MVFR. WINDS ACROSS
THE SOUTH COAST COULD GUST OUT OF THE SW AROUND 25-30 KTS.

AFTER 18Z AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS...ESP ACROSS
THE SOUTH COAST. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST BEGINNING AROUND 18-21Z. THIS CONVECTIVE LINE COULD BRING
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS WESTERN MASS BEFORE FIZZLING OUT
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. ANTICIPATE ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS TO BE OUT OF THE REGION BY 06Z. PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORMAL PRONE REGIONS OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LINGERING FOG AND STRATUS WILL
DISSIPATE. EXPECT VFR WITH DIURNAL CU AND GUSTY WINDS AROUND 15-20
KTS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A PROBABILITY
THAT A STRONG STORM COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

VFR MUCH OF THE TIME WITH A LOW RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS SAT AND
AGAIN MONDAY. GREATER RISK FOR THUNDER MON. MODERATE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS
AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.  MAY SEE SOME AREAS
OF FOG DEVELOP LATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN NEAR SHORE SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS DEVELOPING THU AFTERNOON.  IN
ADDITION...LONG SOUTHWEST FETCH WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO
BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET ACROSS MOST OPEN WATERS.  SCA HEADLINES GO INTO
EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THU AFTERNOON.  WINDS DIMINISH THU
EVENING...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP HEADLINES UP THROUGH THU NIGHT FOR
THE OUTER-WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT FROM THE LEFT OVER SWELL.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

FAIRLY TRANQUIL BOATING WEATHER THIS PERIOD WITH MODEST SW
WINDS...GOOD VSBY AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER.

LOW RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS MONDAY.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ230>234-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA



000
FXUS61 KBOX 300551
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
151 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY IS IN STORE FOR THURSDAY.  AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. NOT AS WARM AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AND PROBABLY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE MAY BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
2 AM UPDATE...

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EARLY THIS MORNING. DRY WEATHER
WILL PREVAIL AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE REGION. A
STICKY NIGHT IS AHEAD AS DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S. THIS COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL HELP FOG BECOME ANOTHER
ISSUE TONIGHT. RIGHT NOW LOW STRATUS IS SITTING JUST OFF THE COAST
OF ACK AND COULD MOVE ONTO THE CAPE. MAY NEED TO WATCH THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS FOR FOG.

LOW TEMPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS WILL ONLY DROP TO BETWEEN 70 AND 75
WITH A FEW UPPER 60S POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
***SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN AND THE
  POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
  EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND***

***A SECONDARY CONCERN WILL BE FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
  THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN
  MA AND NORTHERN CT***

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL TRANSPORT DEEP MOISTURE
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW PWATS EXCEEDING 2+
INCHES AND A SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JUST OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS.  WE MAY SEE
SOME PEEKS OF SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...BUT SHOULD SEE CLOUDS BEGIN
TO DOMINATE IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION MOISTURE.  GIVEN THE DEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BREAK OUT ANYWHERE ACROSS THE REGION BY THU AFTERNOON AND
PERHAPS EVEN EARLIER.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS ACTIVITY.

THE MAIN SHOW WILL ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY TO
SOME DEGREE.  NONETHELESS...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP AROUND 1000
MLCAPES ACROSS THE INTERIOR GIVEN 70+ DEWPOINTS IN PLACE.  0 TO 6 KM
SHEAR IS RATHER MARGINAL...BUT DOES INCREASE TO BETWEEN 30 AND 35
KNOTS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES TOWARDS 00Z.  A LOT OF THE
MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WORKING INTO WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT SOMETIME LATE THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THAT ACTIVITY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES EAST INTO AN
ENVIRONMENT WITH LESS INSTABILITY WHICH IS TYPICAL WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.  BULK OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE
COASTAL PLAIN BY MIDNIGHT...BUT LINGERING ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

SO TO SUM UP...HEAVY RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED STREET
FLOODING ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS.  HOWEVER...A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT.
THE MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE LOCALIZED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
THE HAIL THREAT IS RATHER LOW GIVEN 500 MB TEMPS OF AROUND -6C AND
POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

ONE LITTLE NUANCE WE WANTED TO MENTION WAS THE LOW RISK FOR A BRIEF
WEAK TORNADO ACROSS WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT.  THERE IS ABOUT 25
TO 30 KNOTS OF WIND OFF THE DECK WITH RGEM/NAM SHOWING 0 TO 1 KM
HELICITY VALUES NEAR OR OVER 100.  GIVEN 70+ DEWPOINTS AND LOW LCL/S
THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR THAT.

HIGH TEMPS THU SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90...BUT A
FEW PLACES ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND MAY END UP A FEW DEGREES
WARMER IF THEY SEE A LONGER PERIOD OF SUNSHINE.  EITHER WAY IT WILL
BE VERY HUMID WITH 70+ DEWPOINTS. LOW TEMPS THU NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
60S TO NEAR 70 AND AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL ANOMALOUS H5 CUTOFF VORTEX
ACROSS HUDSON AND JAMES BAYS EXTENDING INTO QUEBEC DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. THIS WILL PUSH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH SLOWLY E OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND AROUND THE TUE-WED TIMEFRAME. THIS
WILL PUSH THE HOT...VERY HUMID AIR S OF THE REGION. EXPECT
GENERALLY SEASONABLE BUT DRIER CONDITIONS FROM LATE THIS WEEKEND
ONWARD.

SEVERAL WEAKENING SHORT WAVES WILL SLIDE AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AND PUSH TOWARD THE REGION...BUT WILL TEND TO WEAKEN AS
THEY CROSS WITH GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE. WILL SEE
PERIODS OF SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH TIMING IS IN
QUESTION ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO SUNDAY WITH GOOD
CONTINUITY...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE GEFS/ECENS MEANS WHICH
KEPT GOOD TIMING OF FEATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...
COLD FRONT PUSHES FURTHER OFFSHORE FRI MORNING. ANY LEFTOVER
SHOWERS WILL PUSH OFF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS EARLY...THEN WILL SEE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS MOVING IN. DRIER AIR ALSO PUSHES IN AS DEWPTS
FALL AWAY FROM THE S COAST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SO WITH A WEAK
PRES GRADIENT SO WILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE FRI NIGHT
IN THE NORMALLY PRONE INLAND LOCATIONS AS WELL AS ALONG THE S
COAST WHERE HIGHER DEWPTS WILL LINGER. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SAT...CROSSING THE REGION SAT
NIGHT. FRONT AND PRECIP WITH IT TENDS TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO
MORE STABLE AIR...BUT WILL STILL SEE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS AND MAYBE
A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OCCURS ACROSS
THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES INTO THE WESTERN CT VALLEY. PRECIP
WILL TEND TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET SAT NIGHT...THOUGH CAN NOT
RULE OUT A LINGERING SHOWER ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

ON SUNDAY...WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS SO WILL SEE DRY
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 80S...THOUGH HOLDING IN THE MID-
UPPER 70S ACROSS OUTER CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. A FEW SHOWERS MIGHT
APPROACH FAR WESTERN AREAS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MODELS HAVING A TOUGH TIME WITH TIMING OF SHORT WAVES IN THE
SLOWLY MIGRATING UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...AS WELL AS
WHICH SHORT WAVE WILL HAVE MORE ENERGY THAN OTHERS. FOR NOW...HAVE
LOW CHANCE POPS MENTIONED LATE MON/MON NIGHT AS ANOTHER FRONT
MOVES ACROSS. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TUE...THEN NOTING DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WED. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME DUE TO WIDE MODEL SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT ACROSS THE
CAPE...ISLANDS AND SOUTH COAST WHERE FOG HAS DEVELOPED. CONDITIONS
COULD DROP DOWN TO IFR. ALSO NEED TO WATCH THE CT VALLEY.

BEFORE 18Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR TO START WITH LINGERING FOG
ALONG SOUTHERN TERMINALS. SCT SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDER OUT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD DROP CONDITIONS TO MVFR. WINDS ACROSS
THE SOUTH COAST COULD GUST OUT OF THE SW AROUND 25-30 KTS.

AFTER 18Z AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS...ESP ACROSS
THE SOUTH COAST. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST BEGINNING AROUND 18-21Z. THIS CONVECTIVE LINE COULD BRING
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS WESTERN MASS BEFORE FIZZLING OUT
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. ANTICIPATE ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS TO BE OUT OF THE REGION BY 06Z. PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORMAL PRONE REGIONS OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LINGERING FOG AND STRATUS WILL
DISSIPATE. EXPECT VFR WITH DIURNAL CU AND GUSTY WINDS AROUND 15-20
KTS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A PROBABILITY
THAT A STRONG STORM COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP IN NORMALLY PRONE INLAND LOCATIONS AS WELL AS ALONG S
COAST LATE FRI NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS LATE SAT THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT. LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY PRECIP.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS.

MONDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR-IFR
IN ANY SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY AWAY FROM S COAST.
SHOWERS LINGER INTO MON NIGHT WITH BRIEF LOCAL MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS
AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.  MAY SEE SOME AREAS
OF FOG DEVELOP LATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN NEAR SHORE SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS DEVELOPING THU AFTERNOON.  IN
ADDITION...LONG SOUTHWEST FETCH WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO
BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET ACROSS MOST OPEN WATERS.  SCA HEADLINES GO INTO
EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THU AFTERNOON.  WINDS DIMINISH THU
EVENING...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP HEADLINES UP THROUGH THU NIGHT FOR
THE OUTER-WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT FROM THE LEFT OVER SWELL.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SW WINDS MAY GUST CLOSE TO 20 KT
ALONG SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS 4 FT OR LESS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GENERAL W-SW WINDS IN PLACE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA. MAY SEE GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS
SAT NIGHT AND AGAIN MON/MON NIGHT. WITH LONG SW FETCH IN PLACE...
SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 5-6 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME SO SMALL CRAFTS MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE HIGH TEMPS FOR OUR CLIMATE SITES TODAY THROUGH 7 PM...

BOSTON            92 AT 649 PM
BRADLEY           95 AT 407 PM
WORCESTER         88 AT 426 PM
PROVIDENCE        93 AT 434 PM
MILTON/BLUE HILL  91 AT 510 PM /ASOS/

RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY...

BOSTON      97 ON 1933 & 1931
PROVIDENCE        95 ON 2002 & 1949
BRADLEY           96 ON 1933
WORCESTER         94 ON 1892
MILTON/BLUE HILL  97 IN 1949

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ230>234-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DUNTEN/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 300551
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
151 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY IS IN STORE FOR THURSDAY.  AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. NOT AS WARM AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AND PROBABLY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE MAY BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
2 AM UPDATE...

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EARLY THIS MORNING. DRY WEATHER
WILL PREVAIL AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE REGION. A
STICKY NIGHT IS AHEAD AS DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S. THIS COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL HELP FOG BECOME ANOTHER
ISSUE TONIGHT. RIGHT NOW LOW STRATUS IS SITTING JUST OFF THE COAST
OF ACK AND COULD MOVE ONTO THE CAPE. MAY NEED TO WATCH THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS FOR FOG.

LOW TEMPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS WILL ONLY DROP TO BETWEEN 70 AND 75
WITH A FEW UPPER 60S POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
***SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN AND THE
  POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
  EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND***

***A SECONDARY CONCERN WILL BE FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
  THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN
  MA AND NORTHERN CT***

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL TRANSPORT DEEP MOISTURE
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW PWATS EXCEEDING 2+
INCHES AND A SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JUST OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS.  WE MAY SEE
SOME PEEKS OF SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...BUT SHOULD SEE CLOUDS BEGIN
TO DOMINATE IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION MOISTURE.  GIVEN THE DEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BREAK OUT ANYWHERE ACROSS THE REGION BY THU AFTERNOON AND
PERHAPS EVEN EARLIER.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS ACTIVITY.

THE MAIN SHOW WILL ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY TO
SOME DEGREE.  NONETHELESS...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP AROUND 1000
MLCAPES ACROSS THE INTERIOR GIVEN 70+ DEWPOINTS IN PLACE.  0 TO 6 KM
SHEAR IS RATHER MARGINAL...BUT DOES INCREASE TO BETWEEN 30 AND 35
KNOTS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES TOWARDS 00Z.  A LOT OF THE
MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WORKING INTO WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT SOMETIME LATE THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THAT ACTIVITY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES EAST INTO AN
ENVIRONMENT WITH LESS INSTABILITY WHICH IS TYPICAL WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.  BULK OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE
COASTAL PLAIN BY MIDNIGHT...BUT LINGERING ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

SO TO SUM UP...HEAVY RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED STREET
FLOODING ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS.  HOWEVER...A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT.
THE MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE LOCALIZED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
THE HAIL THREAT IS RATHER LOW GIVEN 500 MB TEMPS OF AROUND -6C AND
POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

ONE LITTLE NUANCE WE WANTED TO MENTION WAS THE LOW RISK FOR A BRIEF
WEAK TORNADO ACROSS WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT.  THERE IS ABOUT 25
TO 30 KNOTS OF WIND OFF THE DECK WITH RGEM/NAM SHOWING 0 TO 1 KM
HELICITY VALUES NEAR OR OVER 100.  GIVEN 70+ DEWPOINTS AND LOW LCL/S
THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR THAT.

HIGH TEMPS THU SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90...BUT A
FEW PLACES ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND MAY END UP A FEW DEGREES
WARMER IF THEY SEE A LONGER PERIOD OF SUNSHINE.  EITHER WAY IT WILL
BE VERY HUMID WITH 70+ DEWPOINTS. LOW TEMPS THU NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
60S TO NEAR 70 AND AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL ANOMALOUS H5 CUTOFF VORTEX
ACROSS HUDSON AND JAMES BAYS EXTENDING INTO QUEBEC DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. THIS WILL PUSH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH SLOWLY E OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND AROUND THE TUE-WED TIMEFRAME. THIS
WILL PUSH THE HOT...VERY HUMID AIR S OF THE REGION. EXPECT
GENERALLY SEASONABLE BUT DRIER CONDITIONS FROM LATE THIS WEEKEND
ONWARD.

SEVERAL WEAKENING SHORT WAVES WILL SLIDE AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AND PUSH TOWARD THE REGION...BUT WILL TEND TO WEAKEN AS
THEY CROSS WITH GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE. WILL SEE
PERIODS OF SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH TIMING IS IN
QUESTION ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO SUNDAY WITH GOOD
CONTINUITY...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE GEFS/ECENS MEANS WHICH
KEPT GOOD TIMING OF FEATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...
COLD FRONT PUSHES FURTHER OFFSHORE FRI MORNING. ANY LEFTOVER
SHOWERS WILL PUSH OFF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS EARLY...THEN WILL SEE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS MOVING IN. DRIER AIR ALSO PUSHES IN AS DEWPTS
FALL AWAY FROM THE S COAST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SO WITH A WEAK
PRES GRADIENT SO WILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE FRI NIGHT
IN THE NORMALLY PRONE INLAND LOCATIONS AS WELL AS ALONG THE S
COAST WHERE HIGHER DEWPTS WILL LINGER. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SAT...CROSSING THE REGION SAT
NIGHT. FRONT AND PRECIP WITH IT TENDS TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO
MORE STABLE AIR...BUT WILL STILL SEE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS AND MAYBE
A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OCCURS ACROSS
THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES INTO THE WESTERN CT VALLEY. PRECIP
WILL TEND TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET SAT NIGHT...THOUGH CAN NOT
RULE OUT A LINGERING SHOWER ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

ON SUNDAY...WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS SO WILL SEE DRY
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 80S...THOUGH HOLDING IN THE MID-
UPPER 70S ACROSS OUTER CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. A FEW SHOWERS MIGHT
APPROACH FAR WESTERN AREAS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MODELS HAVING A TOUGH TIME WITH TIMING OF SHORT WAVES IN THE
SLOWLY MIGRATING UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...AS WELL AS
WHICH SHORT WAVE WILL HAVE MORE ENERGY THAN OTHERS. FOR NOW...HAVE
LOW CHANCE POPS MENTIONED LATE MON/MON NIGHT AS ANOTHER FRONT
MOVES ACROSS. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TUE...THEN NOTING DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WED. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME DUE TO WIDE MODEL SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT ACROSS THE
CAPE...ISLANDS AND SOUTH COAST WHERE FOG HAS DEVELOPED. CONDITIONS
COULD DROP DOWN TO IFR. ALSO NEED TO WATCH THE CT VALLEY.

BEFORE 18Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR TO START WITH LINGERING FOG
ALONG SOUTHERN TERMINALS. SCT SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDER OUT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD DROP CONDITIONS TO MVFR. WINDS ACROSS
THE SOUTH COAST COULD GUST OUT OF THE SW AROUND 25-30 KTS.

AFTER 18Z AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS...ESP ACROSS
THE SOUTH COAST. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST BEGINNING AROUND 18-21Z. THIS CONVECTIVE LINE COULD BRING
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS WESTERN MASS BEFORE FIZZLING OUT
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. ANTICIPATE ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS TO BE OUT OF THE REGION BY 06Z. PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORMAL PRONE REGIONS OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LINGERING FOG AND STRATUS WILL
DISSIPATE. EXPECT VFR WITH DIURNAL CU AND GUSTY WINDS AROUND 15-20
KTS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A PROBABILITY
THAT A STRONG STORM COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP IN NORMALLY PRONE INLAND LOCATIONS AS WELL AS ALONG S
COAST LATE FRI NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS LATE SAT THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT. LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY PRECIP.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS.

MONDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR-IFR
IN ANY SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY AWAY FROM S COAST.
SHOWERS LINGER INTO MON NIGHT WITH BRIEF LOCAL MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS
AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.  MAY SEE SOME AREAS
OF FOG DEVELOP LATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN NEAR SHORE SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS DEVELOPING THU AFTERNOON.  IN
ADDITION...LONG SOUTHWEST FETCH WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO
BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET ACROSS MOST OPEN WATERS.  SCA HEADLINES GO INTO
EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THU AFTERNOON.  WINDS DIMINISH THU
EVENING...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP HEADLINES UP THROUGH THU NIGHT FOR
THE OUTER-WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT FROM THE LEFT OVER SWELL.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SW WINDS MAY GUST CLOSE TO 20 KT
ALONG SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS 4 FT OR LESS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GENERAL W-SW WINDS IN PLACE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA. MAY SEE GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS
SAT NIGHT AND AGAIN MON/MON NIGHT. WITH LONG SW FETCH IN PLACE...
SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 5-6 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME SO SMALL CRAFTS MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE HIGH TEMPS FOR OUR CLIMATE SITES TODAY THROUGH 7 PM...

BOSTON            92 AT 649 PM
BRADLEY           95 AT 407 PM
WORCESTER         88 AT 426 PM
PROVIDENCE        93 AT 434 PM
MILTON/BLUE HILL  91 AT 510 PM /ASOS/

RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY...

BOSTON      97 ON 1933 & 1931
PROVIDENCE        95 ON 2002 & 1949
BRADLEY           96 ON 1933
WORCESTER         94 ON 1892
MILTON/BLUE HILL  97 IN 1949

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ230>234-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DUNTEN/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 300202
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1002 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY IS IN STORE FOR THURSDAY.  AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. NOT AS WARM AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AND PROBABLY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE MAY BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

10 PM UPDATE...

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE REGION. A STICKY NIGHT IS
AHEAD AS DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THIS COMBINED
WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL HELP FOG BECOME ANOTHER ISSUE TONIGHT. RIGHT
NOW LOW STRATUS IS SITTING JUST OFF THE COAST OF ACK AND COULD
MOVE ONTO THE CAPE. MAY NEED TO WATCH THE CAPE AND ISLANDS FOR
WIDESPREAD FOG.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
GIVEN HIGH DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS...WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. LOW CLOUDS
MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST...BUT WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD NOT ADVANCE MUCH FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN
THAT.

LOW TEMPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS WILL ONLY DROP TO BETWEEN 70 AND 75
WITH A FEW UPPER 60S POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
***SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN AND THE
  POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
  EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND***

***A SECONDARY CONCERN WILL BE FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
  THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN
  MA AND NORTHERN CT***

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL TRANSPORT DEEP MOISTURE
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW PWATS EXCEEDING 2+
INCHES AND A SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JUST OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS.  WE MAY SEE
SOME PEEKS OF SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...BUT SHOULD SEE CLOUDS BEGIN
TO DOMINATE IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION MOISTURE.  GIVEN THE DEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BREAK OUT ANYWHERE ACROSS THE REGION BY THU AFTERNOON AND
PERHAPS EVEN EARLIER.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS ACTIVITY.

THE MAIN SHOW WILL ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY TO
SOME DEGREE.  NONETHELESS...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP AROUND 1000
MLCAPES ACROSS THE INTERIOR GIVEN 70+ DEWPOINTS IN PLACE.  0 TO 6 KM
SHEAR IS RATHER MARGINAL...BUT DOES INCREASE TO BETWEEN 30 AND 35
KNOTS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES TOWARDS 00Z.  A LOT OF THE
MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WORKING INTO WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT SOMETIME LATE THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THAT ACTIVITY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES EAST INTO AN
ENVIRONMENT WITH LESS INSTABILITY WHICH IS TYPICAL WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.  BULK OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE
COASTAL PLAIN BY MIDNIGHT...BUT LINGERING ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

SO TO SUM UP...HEAVY RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED STREET
FLOODING ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS.  HOWEVER...A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT.
THE MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE LOCALIZED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
THE HAIL THREAT IS RATHER LOW GIVEN 500 MB TEMPS OF AROUND -6C AND
POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

ONE LITTLE NUANCE WE WANTED TO MENTION WAS THE LOW RISK FOR A BRIEF
WEAK TORNADO ACROSS WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT.  THERE IS ABOUT 25
TO 30 KNOTS OF WIND OFF THE DECK WITH RGEM/NAM SHOWING 0 TO 1 KM
HELICITY VALUES NEAR OR OVER 100.  GIVEN 70+ DEWPOINTS AND LOW LCL/S
THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR THAT.

HIGH TEMPS THU SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90...BUT A
FEW PLACES ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND MAY END UP A FEW DEGREES
WARMER IF THEY SEE A LONGER PERIOD OF SUNSHINE.  EITHER WAY IT WILL
BE VERY HUMID WITH 70+ DEWPOINTS. LOW TEMPS THU NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
60S TO NEAR 70 AND AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL ANOMALOUS H5 CUTOFF VORTEX
ACROSS HUDSON AND JAMES BAYS EXTENDING INTO QUEBEC DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. THIS WILL PUSH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH SLOWLY E OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND AROUND THE TUE-WED TIMEFRAME. THIS
WILL PUSH THE HOT...VERY HUMID AIR S OF THE REGION. EXPECT
GENERALLY SEASONABLE BUT DRIER CONDITIONS FROM LATE THIS WEEKEND
ONWARD.

SEVERAL WEAKENING SHORT WAVES WILL SLIDE AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AND PUSH TOWARD THE REGION...BUT WILL TEND TO WEAKEN AS
THEY CROSS WITH GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE. WILL SEE
PERIODS OF SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH TIMING IS IN
QUESTION ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO SUNDAY WITH GOOD
CONTINUITY...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE GEFS/ECENS MEANS WHICH
KEPT GOOD TIMING OF FEATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...
COLD FRONT PUSHES FURTHER OFFSHORE FRI MORNING. ANY LEFTOVER
SHOWERS WILL PUSH OFF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS EARLY...THEN WILL SEE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS MOVING IN. DRIER AIR ALSO PUSHES IN AS DEWPTS
FALL AWAY FROM THE S COAST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SO WITH A WEAK
PRES GRADIENT SO WILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE FRI NIGHT
IN THE NORMALLY PRONE INLAND LOCATIONS AS WELL AS ALONG THE S
COAST WHERE HIGHER DEWPTS WILL LINGER. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SAT...CROSSING THE REGION SAT
NIGHT. FRONT AND PRECIP WITH IT TENDS TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO
MORE STABLE AIR...BUT WILL STILL SEE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS AND MAYBE
A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OCCURS ACROSS
THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES INTO THE WESTERN CT VALLEY. PRECIP
WILL TEND TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET SAT NIGHT...THOUGH CAN NOT
RULE OUT A LINGERING SHOWER ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

ON SUNDAY...WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS SO WILL SEE DRY
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 80S...THOUGH HOLDING IN THE MID-
UPPER 70S ACROSS OUTER CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. A FEW SHOWERS MIGHT
APPROACH FAR WESTERN AREAS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MODELS HAVING A TOUGH TIME WITH TIMING OF SHORT WAVES IN THE
SLOWLY MIGRATING UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...AS WELL AS
WHICH SHORT WAVE WILL HAVE MORE ENERGY THAN OTHERS. FOR NOW...HAVE
LOW CHANCE POPS MENTIONED LATE MON/MON NIGHT AS ANOTHER FRONT
MOVES ACROSS. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TUE...THEN NOTING DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WED. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME DUE TO WIDE MODEL SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
WILL SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.
IN ADDITION...LOW CLOUDS MAY WORK ONTO THE ISLANDS AND CAPE
COD...BUT SHOULD NOT MAKE IT MUCH FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN THAT WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  PROBABLY VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE
INTO THE MID AFTERNOON...EXCEPT THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS
WHERE LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES WILL BE AT LEAST NEARBY.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN DURING THE DAY.  HOWEVER...THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL LIKELY WORK
INTO WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  A FEW
OF THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.  IN ADDITION...SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH MAINLY BROKEN MVFR TO VFR CIGS
ELSEWHERE. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY
PUSH INTO EASTERN MA AND RHODE ISLAND THU EVENING...BUT SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE.  BULK OF ACTIVITY OVER AFTER MIDNIGHT
EXCEPT PERHAPS CAPE AND ISLANDS...BUT PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MAY
DEVELOP.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TONIGHT.  SEA BREEZE SHOULD
COME TO AN END BETWEEN 21Z AND 23Z THIS EVENING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TONIGHT.  PATCHY FOG MAY
AFFECT THE TERMINAL FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP IN NORMALLY PRONE INLAND LOCATIONS AS WELL AS ALONG S
COAST LATE FRI NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS LATE SAT THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT. LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY PRECIP.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS.

MONDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR-IFR
IN ANY SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY AWAY FROM S COAST.
SHOWERS LINGER INTO MON NIGHT WITH BRIEF LOCAL MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS
AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.  MAY SEE SOME AREAS
OF FOG DEVELOP LATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN NEAR SHORE SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS DEVELOPING THU AFTERNOON.  IN
ADDITION...LONG SOUTHWEST FETCH WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO
BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET ACROSS MOST OPEN WATERS.  SCA HEADLINES GO INTO
EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THU AFTERNOON.  WINDS DIMINISH THU
EVENING...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP HEADLINES UP THROUGH THU NIGHT FOR
THE OUTER-WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT FROM THE LEFT OVER SWELL.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SW WINDS MAY GUST CLOSE TO 20 KT
ALONG SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS 4 FT OR LESS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GENERAL W-SW WINDS IN PLACE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA. MAY SEE GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS
SAT NIGHT AND AGAIN MON/MON NIGHT. WITH LONG SW FETCH IN PLACE...
SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 5-6 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME SO SMALL CRAFTS MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE HIGH TEMPS FOR OUR CLIMATE SITES TODAY THROUGH 7 PM...

BOSTON            92 AT 649 PM
BRADLEY           95 AT 407 PM
WORCESTER         88 AT 426 PM
PROVIDENCE        93 AT 434 PM
MILTON/BLUE HILL  91 AT 510 PM /ASOS/

RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY...

BOSTON      97 ON 1933 & 1931
PROVIDENCE        95 ON 2002 & 1949
BRADLEY           96 ON 1933
WORCESTER         94 ON 1892
MILTON/BLUE HILL  97 IN 1949

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ017>024.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ005>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ230>234-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 11 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 300202
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1002 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY IS IN STORE FOR THURSDAY.  AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. NOT AS WARM AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AND PROBABLY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE MAY BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

10 PM UPDATE...

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE REGION. A STICKY NIGHT IS
AHEAD AS DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THIS COMBINED
WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL HELP FOG BECOME ANOTHER ISSUE TONIGHT. RIGHT
NOW LOW STRATUS IS SITTING JUST OFF THE COAST OF ACK AND COULD
MOVE ONTO THE CAPE. MAY NEED TO WATCH THE CAPE AND ISLANDS FOR
WIDESPREAD FOG.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
GIVEN HIGH DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS...WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. LOW CLOUDS
MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST...BUT WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD NOT ADVANCE MUCH FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN
THAT.

LOW TEMPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS WILL ONLY DROP TO BETWEEN 70 AND 75
WITH A FEW UPPER 60S POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
***SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN AND THE
  POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
  EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND***

***A SECONDARY CONCERN WILL BE FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
  THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN
  MA AND NORTHERN CT***

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL TRANSPORT DEEP MOISTURE
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW PWATS EXCEEDING 2+
INCHES AND A SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JUST OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS.  WE MAY SEE
SOME PEEKS OF SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...BUT SHOULD SEE CLOUDS BEGIN
TO DOMINATE IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION MOISTURE.  GIVEN THE DEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BREAK OUT ANYWHERE ACROSS THE REGION BY THU AFTERNOON AND
PERHAPS EVEN EARLIER.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS ACTIVITY.

THE MAIN SHOW WILL ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY TO
SOME DEGREE.  NONETHELESS...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP AROUND 1000
MLCAPES ACROSS THE INTERIOR GIVEN 70+ DEWPOINTS IN PLACE.  0 TO 6 KM
SHEAR IS RATHER MARGINAL...BUT DOES INCREASE TO BETWEEN 30 AND 35
KNOTS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES TOWARDS 00Z.  A LOT OF THE
MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WORKING INTO WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT SOMETIME LATE THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THAT ACTIVITY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES EAST INTO AN
ENVIRONMENT WITH LESS INSTABILITY WHICH IS TYPICAL WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.  BULK OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE
COASTAL PLAIN BY MIDNIGHT...BUT LINGERING ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

SO TO SUM UP...HEAVY RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED STREET
FLOODING ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS.  HOWEVER...A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT.
THE MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE LOCALIZED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
THE HAIL THREAT IS RATHER LOW GIVEN 500 MB TEMPS OF AROUND -6C AND
POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

ONE LITTLE NUANCE WE WANTED TO MENTION WAS THE LOW RISK FOR A BRIEF
WEAK TORNADO ACROSS WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT.  THERE IS ABOUT 25
TO 30 KNOTS OF WIND OFF THE DECK WITH RGEM/NAM SHOWING 0 TO 1 KM
HELICITY VALUES NEAR OR OVER 100.  GIVEN 70+ DEWPOINTS AND LOW LCL/S
THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR THAT.

HIGH TEMPS THU SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90...BUT A
FEW PLACES ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND MAY END UP A FEW DEGREES
WARMER IF THEY SEE A LONGER PERIOD OF SUNSHINE.  EITHER WAY IT WILL
BE VERY HUMID WITH 70+ DEWPOINTS. LOW TEMPS THU NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
60S TO NEAR 70 AND AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL ANOMALOUS H5 CUTOFF VORTEX
ACROSS HUDSON AND JAMES BAYS EXTENDING INTO QUEBEC DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. THIS WILL PUSH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH SLOWLY E OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND AROUND THE TUE-WED TIMEFRAME. THIS
WILL PUSH THE HOT...VERY HUMID AIR S OF THE REGION. EXPECT
GENERALLY SEASONABLE BUT DRIER CONDITIONS FROM LATE THIS WEEKEND
ONWARD.

SEVERAL WEAKENING SHORT WAVES WILL SLIDE AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AND PUSH TOWARD THE REGION...BUT WILL TEND TO WEAKEN AS
THEY CROSS WITH GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE. WILL SEE
PERIODS OF SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH TIMING IS IN
QUESTION ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO SUNDAY WITH GOOD
CONTINUITY...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE GEFS/ECENS MEANS WHICH
KEPT GOOD TIMING OF FEATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...
COLD FRONT PUSHES FURTHER OFFSHORE FRI MORNING. ANY LEFTOVER
SHOWERS WILL PUSH OFF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS EARLY...THEN WILL SEE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS MOVING IN. DRIER AIR ALSO PUSHES IN AS DEWPTS
FALL AWAY FROM THE S COAST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SO WITH A WEAK
PRES GRADIENT SO WILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE FRI NIGHT
IN THE NORMALLY PRONE INLAND LOCATIONS AS WELL AS ALONG THE S
COAST WHERE HIGHER DEWPTS WILL LINGER. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SAT...CROSSING THE REGION SAT
NIGHT. FRONT AND PRECIP WITH IT TENDS TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO
MORE STABLE AIR...BUT WILL STILL SEE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS AND MAYBE
A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OCCURS ACROSS
THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES INTO THE WESTERN CT VALLEY. PRECIP
WILL TEND TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET SAT NIGHT...THOUGH CAN NOT
RULE OUT A LINGERING SHOWER ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

ON SUNDAY...WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS SO WILL SEE DRY
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 80S...THOUGH HOLDING IN THE MID-
UPPER 70S ACROSS OUTER CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. A FEW SHOWERS MIGHT
APPROACH FAR WESTERN AREAS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MODELS HAVING A TOUGH TIME WITH TIMING OF SHORT WAVES IN THE
SLOWLY MIGRATING UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...AS WELL AS
WHICH SHORT WAVE WILL HAVE MORE ENERGY THAN OTHERS. FOR NOW...HAVE
LOW CHANCE POPS MENTIONED LATE MON/MON NIGHT AS ANOTHER FRONT
MOVES ACROSS. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TUE...THEN NOTING DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WED. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME DUE TO WIDE MODEL SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
WILL SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.
IN ADDITION...LOW CLOUDS MAY WORK ONTO THE ISLANDS AND CAPE
COD...BUT SHOULD NOT MAKE IT MUCH FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN THAT WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  PROBABLY VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE
INTO THE MID AFTERNOON...EXCEPT THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS
WHERE LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES WILL BE AT LEAST NEARBY.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN DURING THE DAY.  HOWEVER...THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL LIKELY WORK
INTO WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  A FEW
OF THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.  IN ADDITION...SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH MAINLY BROKEN MVFR TO VFR CIGS
ELSEWHERE. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY
PUSH INTO EASTERN MA AND RHODE ISLAND THU EVENING...BUT SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE.  BULK OF ACTIVITY OVER AFTER MIDNIGHT
EXCEPT PERHAPS CAPE AND ISLANDS...BUT PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MAY
DEVELOP.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TONIGHT.  SEA BREEZE SHOULD
COME TO AN END BETWEEN 21Z AND 23Z THIS EVENING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TONIGHT.  PATCHY FOG MAY
AFFECT THE TERMINAL FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP IN NORMALLY PRONE INLAND LOCATIONS AS WELL AS ALONG S
COAST LATE FRI NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS LATE SAT THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT. LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY PRECIP.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS.

MONDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR-IFR
IN ANY SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY AWAY FROM S COAST.
SHOWERS LINGER INTO MON NIGHT WITH BRIEF LOCAL MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS
AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.  MAY SEE SOME AREAS
OF FOG DEVELOP LATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN NEAR SHORE SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS DEVELOPING THU AFTERNOON.  IN
ADDITION...LONG SOUTHWEST FETCH WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO
BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET ACROSS MOST OPEN WATERS.  SCA HEADLINES GO INTO
EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THU AFTERNOON.  WINDS DIMINISH THU
EVENING...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP HEADLINES UP THROUGH THU NIGHT FOR
THE OUTER-WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT FROM THE LEFT OVER SWELL.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SW WINDS MAY GUST CLOSE TO 20 KT
ALONG SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS 4 FT OR LESS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GENERAL W-SW WINDS IN PLACE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA. MAY SEE GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS
SAT NIGHT AND AGAIN MON/MON NIGHT. WITH LONG SW FETCH IN PLACE...
SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 5-6 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME SO SMALL CRAFTS MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE HIGH TEMPS FOR OUR CLIMATE SITES TODAY THROUGH 7 PM...

BOSTON            92 AT 649 PM
BRADLEY           95 AT 407 PM
WORCESTER         88 AT 426 PM
PROVIDENCE        93 AT 434 PM
MILTON/BLUE HILL  91 AT 510 PM /ASOS/

RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY...

BOSTON      97 ON 1933 & 1931
PROVIDENCE        95 ON 2002 & 1949
BRADLEY           96 ON 1933
WORCESTER         94 ON 1892
MILTON/BLUE HILL  97 IN 1949

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ017>024.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ005>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ230>234-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 11 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 300202
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1002 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY IS IN STORE FOR THURSDAY.  AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. NOT AS WARM AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AND PROBABLY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE MAY BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

10 PM UPDATE...

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE REGION. A STICKY NIGHT IS
AHEAD AS DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THIS COMBINED
WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL HELP FOG BECOME ANOTHER ISSUE TONIGHT. RIGHT
NOW LOW STRATUS IS SITTING JUST OFF THE COAST OF ACK AND COULD
MOVE ONTO THE CAPE. MAY NEED TO WATCH THE CAPE AND ISLANDS FOR
WIDESPREAD FOG.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
GIVEN HIGH DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS...WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. LOW CLOUDS
MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST...BUT WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD NOT ADVANCE MUCH FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN
THAT.

LOW TEMPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS WILL ONLY DROP TO BETWEEN 70 AND 75
WITH A FEW UPPER 60S POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
***SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN AND THE
  POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
  EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND***

***A SECONDARY CONCERN WILL BE FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
  THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN
  MA AND NORTHERN CT***

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL TRANSPORT DEEP MOISTURE
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW PWATS EXCEEDING 2+
INCHES AND A SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JUST OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS.  WE MAY SEE
SOME PEEKS OF SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...BUT SHOULD SEE CLOUDS BEGIN
TO DOMINATE IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION MOISTURE.  GIVEN THE DEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BREAK OUT ANYWHERE ACROSS THE REGION BY THU AFTERNOON AND
PERHAPS EVEN EARLIER.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS ACTIVITY.

THE MAIN SHOW WILL ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY TO
SOME DEGREE.  NONETHELESS...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP AROUND 1000
MLCAPES ACROSS THE INTERIOR GIVEN 70+ DEWPOINTS IN PLACE.  0 TO 6 KM
SHEAR IS RATHER MARGINAL...BUT DOES INCREASE TO BETWEEN 30 AND 35
KNOTS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES TOWARDS 00Z.  A LOT OF THE
MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WORKING INTO WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT SOMETIME LATE THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THAT ACTIVITY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES EAST INTO AN
ENVIRONMENT WITH LESS INSTABILITY WHICH IS TYPICAL WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.  BULK OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE
COASTAL PLAIN BY MIDNIGHT...BUT LINGERING ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

SO TO SUM UP...HEAVY RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED STREET
FLOODING ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS.  HOWEVER...A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT.
THE MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE LOCALIZED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
THE HAIL THREAT IS RATHER LOW GIVEN 500 MB TEMPS OF AROUND -6C AND
POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

ONE LITTLE NUANCE WE WANTED TO MENTION WAS THE LOW RISK FOR A BRIEF
WEAK TORNADO ACROSS WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT.  THERE IS ABOUT 25
TO 30 KNOTS OF WIND OFF THE DECK WITH RGEM/NAM SHOWING 0 TO 1 KM
HELICITY VALUES NEAR OR OVER 100.  GIVEN 70+ DEWPOINTS AND LOW LCL/S
THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR THAT.

HIGH TEMPS THU SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90...BUT A
FEW PLACES ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND MAY END UP A FEW DEGREES
WARMER IF THEY SEE A LONGER PERIOD OF SUNSHINE.  EITHER WAY IT WILL
BE VERY HUMID WITH 70+ DEWPOINTS. LOW TEMPS THU NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
60S TO NEAR 70 AND AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL ANOMALOUS H5 CUTOFF VORTEX
ACROSS HUDSON AND JAMES BAYS EXTENDING INTO QUEBEC DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. THIS WILL PUSH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH SLOWLY E OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND AROUND THE TUE-WED TIMEFRAME. THIS
WILL PUSH THE HOT...VERY HUMID AIR S OF THE REGION. EXPECT
GENERALLY SEASONABLE BUT DRIER CONDITIONS FROM LATE THIS WEEKEND
ONWARD.

SEVERAL WEAKENING SHORT WAVES WILL SLIDE AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AND PUSH TOWARD THE REGION...BUT WILL TEND TO WEAKEN AS
THEY CROSS WITH GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE. WILL SEE
PERIODS OF SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH TIMING IS IN
QUESTION ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO SUNDAY WITH GOOD
CONTINUITY...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE GEFS/ECENS MEANS WHICH
KEPT GOOD TIMING OF FEATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...
COLD FRONT PUSHES FURTHER OFFSHORE FRI MORNING. ANY LEFTOVER
SHOWERS WILL PUSH OFF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS EARLY...THEN WILL SEE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS MOVING IN. DRIER AIR ALSO PUSHES IN AS DEWPTS
FALL AWAY FROM THE S COAST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SO WITH A WEAK
PRES GRADIENT SO WILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE FRI NIGHT
IN THE NORMALLY PRONE INLAND LOCATIONS AS WELL AS ALONG THE S
COAST WHERE HIGHER DEWPTS WILL LINGER. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SAT...CROSSING THE REGION SAT
NIGHT. FRONT AND PRECIP WITH IT TENDS TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO
MORE STABLE AIR...BUT WILL STILL SEE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS AND MAYBE
A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OCCURS ACROSS
THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES INTO THE WESTERN CT VALLEY. PRECIP
WILL TEND TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET SAT NIGHT...THOUGH CAN NOT
RULE OUT A LINGERING SHOWER ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

ON SUNDAY...WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS SO WILL SEE DRY
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 80S...THOUGH HOLDING IN THE MID-
UPPER 70S ACROSS OUTER CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. A FEW SHOWERS MIGHT
APPROACH FAR WESTERN AREAS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MODELS HAVING A TOUGH TIME WITH TIMING OF SHORT WAVES IN THE
SLOWLY MIGRATING UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...AS WELL AS
WHICH SHORT WAVE WILL HAVE MORE ENERGY THAN OTHERS. FOR NOW...HAVE
LOW CHANCE POPS MENTIONED LATE MON/MON NIGHT AS ANOTHER FRONT
MOVES ACROSS. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TUE...THEN NOTING DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WED. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME DUE TO WIDE MODEL SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
WILL SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.
IN ADDITION...LOW CLOUDS MAY WORK ONTO THE ISLANDS AND CAPE
COD...BUT SHOULD NOT MAKE IT MUCH FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN THAT WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  PROBABLY VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE
INTO THE MID AFTERNOON...EXCEPT THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS
WHERE LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES WILL BE AT LEAST NEARBY.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN DURING THE DAY.  HOWEVER...THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL LIKELY WORK
INTO WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  A FEW
OF THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.  IN ADDITION...SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH MAINLY BROKEN MVFR TO VFR CIGS
ELSEWHERE. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY
PUSH INTO EASTERN MA AND RHODE ISLAND THU EVENING...BUT SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE.  BULK OF ACTIVITY OVER AFTER MIDNIGHT
EXCEPT PERHAPS CAPE AND ISLANDS...BUT PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MAY
DEVELOP.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TONIGHT.  SEA BREEZE SHOULD
COME TO AN END BETWEEN 21Z AND 23Z THIS EVENING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TONIGHT.  PATCHY FOG MAY
AFFECT THE TERMINAL FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP IN NORMALLY PRONE INLAND LOCATIONS AS WELL AS ALONG S
COAST LATE FRI NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS LATE SAT THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT. LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY PRECIP.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS.

MONDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR-IFR
IN ANY SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY AWAY FROM S COAST.
SHOWERS LINGER INTO MON NIGHT WITH BRIEF LOCAL MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS
AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.  MAY SEE SOME AREAS
OF FOG DEVELOP LATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN NEAR SHORE SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS DEVELOPING THU AFTERNOON.  IN
ADDITION...LONG SOUTHWEST FETCH WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO
BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET ACROSS MOST OPEN WATERS.  SCA HEADLINES GO INTO
EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THU AFTERNOON.  WINDS DIMINISH THU
EVENING...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP HEADLINES UP THROUGH THU NIGHT FOR
THE OUTER-WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT FROM THE LEFT OVER SWELL.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SW WINDS MAY GUST CLOSE TO 20 KT
ALONG SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS 4 FT OR LESS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GENERAL W-SW WINDS IN PLACE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA. MAY SEE GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS
SAT NIGHT AND AGAIN MON/MON NIGHT. WITH LONG SW FETCH IN PLACE...
SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 5-6 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME SO SMALL CRAFTS MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE HIGH TEMPS FOR OUR CLIMATE SITES TODAY THROUGH 7 PM...

BOSTON            92 AT 649 PM
BRADLEY           95 AT 407 PM
WORCESTER         88 AT 426 PM
PROVIDENCE        93 AT 434 PM
MILTON/BLUE HILL  91 AT 510 PM /ASOS/

RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY...

BOSTON      97 ON 1933 & 1931
PROVIDENCE        95 ON 2002 & 1949
BRADLEY           96 ON 1933
WORCESTER         94 ON 1892
MILTON/BLUE HILL  97 IN 1949

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ017>024.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ005>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ230>234-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 11 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 300202
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1002 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY IS IN STORE FOR THURSDAY.  AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. NOT AS WARM AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AND PROBABLY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE MAY BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

10 PM UPDATE...

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE REGION. A STICKY NIGHT IS
AHEAD AS DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THIS COMBINED
WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL HELP FOG BECOME ANOTHER ISSUE TONIGHT. RIGHT
NOW LOW STRATUS IS SITTING JUST OFF THE COAST OF ACK AND COULD
MOVE ONTO THE CAPE. MAY NEED TO WATCH THE CAPE AND ISLANDS FOR
WIDESPREAD FOG.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
GIVEN HIGH DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS...WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. LOW CLOUDS
MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST...BUT WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD NOT ADVANCE MUCH FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN
THAT.

LOW TEMPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS WILL ONLY DROP TO BETWEEN 70 AND 75
WITH A FEW UPPER 60S POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
***SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN AND THE
  POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
  EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND***

***A SECONDARY CONCERN WILL BE FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
  THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN
  MA AND NORTHERN CT***

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL TRANSPORT DEEP MOISTURE
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW PWATS EXCEEDING 2+
INCHES AND A SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JUST OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS.  WE MAY SEE
SOME PEEKS OF SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...BUT SHOULD SEE CLOUDS BEGIN
TO DOMINATE IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION MOISTURE.  GIVEN THE DEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BREAK OUT ANYWHERE ACROSS THE REGION BY THU AFTERNOON AND
PERHAPS EVEN EARLIER.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS ACTIVITY.

THE MAIN SHOW WILL ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY TO
SOME DEGREE.  NONETHELESS...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP AROUND 1000
MLCAPES ACROSS THE INTERIOR GIVEN 70+ DEWPOINTS IN PLACE.  0 TO 6 KM
SHEAR IS RATHER MARGINAL...BUT DOES INCREASE TO BETWEEN 30 AND 35
KNOTS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES TOWARDS 00Z.  A LOT OF THE
MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WORKING INTO WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT SOMETIME LATE THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THAT ACTIVITY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES EAST INTO AN
ENVIRONMENT WITH LESS INSTABILITY WHICH IS TYPICAL WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.  BULK OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE
COASTAL PLAIN BY MIDNIGHT...BUT LINGERING ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

SO TO SUM UP...HEAVY RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED STREET
FLOODING ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS.  HOWEVER...A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT.
THE MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE LOCALIZED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
THE HAIL THREAT IS RATHER LOW GIVEN 500 MB TEMPS OF AROUND -6C AND
POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

ONE LITTLE NUANCE WE WANTED TO MENTION WAS THE LOW RISK FOR A BRIEF
WEAK TORNADO ACROSS WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT.  THERE IS ABOUT 25
TO 30 KNOTS OF WIND OFF THE DECK WITH RGEM/NAM SHOWING 0 TO 1 KM
HELICITY VALUES NEAR OR OVER 100.  GIVEN 70+ DEWPOINTS AND LOW LCL/S
THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR THAT.

HIGH TEMPS THU SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90...BUT A
FEW PLACES ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND MAY END UP A FEW DEGREES
WARMER IF THEY SEE A LONGER PERIOD OF SUNSHINE.  EITHER WAY IT WILL
BE VERY HUMID WITH 70+ DEWPOINTS. LOW TEMPS THU NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
60S TO NEAR 70 AND AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL ANOMALOUS H5 CUTOFF VORTEX
ACROSS HUDSON AND JAMES BAYS EXTENDING INTO QUEBEC DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. THIS WILL PUSH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH SLOWLY E OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND AROUND THE TUE-WED TIMEFRAME. THIS
WILL PUSH THE HOT...VERY HUMID AIR S OF THE REGION. EXPECT
GENERALLY SEASONABLE BUT DRIER CONDITIONS FROM LATE THIS WEEKEND
ONWARD.

SEVERAL WEAKENING SHORT WAVES WILL SLIDE AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AND PUSH TOWARD THE REGION...BUT WILL TEND TO WEAKEN AS
THEY CROSS WITH GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE. WILL SEE
PERIODS OF SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH TIMING IS IN
QUESTION ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO SUNDAY WITH GOOD
CONTINUITY...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE GEFS/ECENS MEANS WHICH
KEPT GOOD TIMING OF FEATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...
COLD FRONT PUSHES FURTHER OFFSHORE FRI MORNING. ANY LEFTOVER
SHOWERS WILL PUSH OFF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS EARLY...THEN WILL SEE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS MOVING IN. DRIER AIR ALSO PUSHES IN AS DEWPTS
FALL AWAY FROM THE S COAST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SO WITH A WEAK
PRES GRADIENT SO WILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE FRI NIGHT
IN THE NORMALLY PRONE INLAND LOCATIONS AS WELL AS ALONG THE S
COAST WHERE HIGHER DEWPTS WILL LINGER. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SAT...CROSSING THE REGION SAT
NIGHT. FRONT AND PRECIP WITH IT TENDS TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO
MORE STABLE AIR...BUT WILL STILL SEE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS AND MAYBE
A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OCCURS ACROSS
THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES INTO THE WESTERN CT VALLEY. PRECIP
WILL TEND TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET SAT NIGHT...THOUGH CAN NOT
RULE OUT A LINGERING SHOWER ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

ON SUNDAY...WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS SO WILL SEE DRY
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 80S...THOUGH HOLDING IN THE MID-
UPPER 70S ACROSS OUTER CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. A FEW SHOWERS MIGHT
APPROACH FAR WESTERN AREAS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MODELS HAVING A TOUGH TIME WITH TIMING OF SHORT WAVES IN THE
SLOWLY MIGRATING UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...AS WELL AS
WHICH SHORT WAVE WILL HAVE MORE ENERGY THAN OTHERS. FOR NOW...HAVE
LOW CHANCE POPS MENTIONED LATE MON/MON NIGHT AS ANOTHER FRONT
MOVES ACROSS. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TUE...THEN NOTING DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WED. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME DUE TO WIDE MODEL SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
WILL SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.
IN ADDITION...LOW CLOUDS MAY WORK ONTO THE ISLANDS AND CAPE
COD...BUT SHOULD NOT MAKE IT MUCH FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN THAT WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  PROBABLY VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE
INTO THE MID AFTERNOON...EXCEPT THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS
WHERE LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES WILL BE AT LEAST NEARBY.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN DURING THE DAY.  HOWEVER...THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL LIKELY WORK
INTO WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  A FEW
OF THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.  IN ADDITION...SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH MAINLY BROKEN MVFR TO VFR CIGS
ELSEWHERE. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY
PUSH INTO EASTERN MA AND RHODE ISLAND THU EVENING...BUT SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE.  BULK OF ACTIVITY OVER AFTER MIDNIGHT
EXCEPT PERHAPS CAPE AND ISLANDS...BUT PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MAY
DEVELOP.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TONIGHT.  SEA BREEZE SHOULD
COME TO AN END BETWEEN 21Z AND 23Z THIS EVENING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TONIGHT.  PATCHY FOG MAY
AFFECT THE TERMINAL FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP IN NORMALLY PRONE INLAND LOCATIONS AS WELL AS ALONG S
COAST LATE FRI NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS LATE SAT THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT. LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY PRECIP.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS.

MONDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR-IFR
IN ANY SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY AWAY FROM S COAST.
SHOWERS LINGER INTO MON NIGHT WITH BRIEF LOCAL MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS
AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.  MAY SEE SOME AREAS
OF FOG DEVELOP LATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN NEAR SHORE SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS DEVELOPING THU AFTERNOON.  IN
ADDITION...LONG SOUTHWEST FETCH WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO
BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET ACROSS MOST OPEN WATERS.  SCA HEADLINES GO INTO
EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THU AFTERNOON.  WINDS DIMINISH THU
EVENING...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP HEADLINES UP THROUGH THU NIGHT FOR
THE OUTER-WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT FROM THE LEFT OVER SWELL.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SW WINDS MAY GUST CLOSE TO 20 KT
ALONG SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS 4 FT OR LESS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GENERAL W-SW WINDS IN PLACE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA. MAY SEE GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS
SAT NIGHT AND AGAIN MON/MON NIGHT. WITH LONG SW FETCH IN PLACE...
SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 5-6 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME SO SMALL CRAFTS MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE HIGH TEMPS FOR OUR CLIMATE SITES TODAY THROUGH 7 PM...

BOSTON            92 AT 649 PM
BRADLEY           95 AT 407 PM
WORCESTER         88 AT 426 PM
PROVIDENCE        93 AT 434 PM
MILTON/BLUE HILL  91 AT 510 PM /ASOS/

RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY...

BOSTON      97 ON 1933 & 1931
PROVIDENCE        95 ON 2002 & 1949
BRADLEY           96 ON 1933
WORCESTER         94 ON 1892
MILTON/BLUE HILL  97 IN 1949

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ017>024.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ005>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ230>234-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 11 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 300202
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1002 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY IS IN STORE FOR THURSDAY.  AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. NOT AS WARM AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AND PROBABLY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE MAY BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

10 PM UPDATE...

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE REGION. A STICKY NIGHT IS
AHEAD AS DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THIS COMBINED
WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL HELP FOG BECOME ANOTHER ISSUE TONIGHT. RIGHT
NOW LOW STRATUS IS SITTING JUST OFF THE COAST OF ACK AND COULD
MOVE ONTO THE CAPE. MAY NEED TO WATCH THE CAPE AND ISLANDS FOR
WIDESPREAD FOG.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
GIVEN HIGH DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS...WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. LOW CLOUDS
MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST...BUT WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD NOT ADVANCE MUCH FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN
THAT.

LOW TEMPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS WILL ONLY DROP TO BETWEEN 70 AND 75
WITH A FEW UPPER 60S POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
***SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN AND THE
  POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
  EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND***

***A SECONDARY CONCERN WILL BE FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
  THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN
  MA AND NORTHERN CT***

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL TRANSPORT DEEP MOISTURE
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW PWATS EXCEEDING 2+
INCHES AND A SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JUST OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS.  WE MAY SEE
SOME PEEKS OF SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...BUT SHOULD SEE CLOUDS BEGIN
TO DOMINATE IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION MOISTURE.  GIVEN THE DEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BREAK OUT ANYWHERE ACROSS THE REGION BY THU AFTERNOON AND
PERHAPS EVEN EARLIER.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS ACTIVITY.

THE MAIN SHOW WILL ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY TO
SOME DEGREE.  NONETHELESS...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP AROUND 1000
MLCAPES ACROSS THE INTERIOR GIVEN 70+ DEWPOINTS IN PLACE.  0 TO 6 KM
SHEAR IS RATHER MARGINAL...BUT DOES INCREASE TO BETWEEN 30 AND 35
KNOTS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES TOWARDS 00Z.  A LOT OF THE
MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WORKING INTO WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT SOMETIME LATE THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THAT ACTIVITY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES EAST INTO AN
ENVIRONMENT WITH LESS INSTABILITY WHICH IS TYPICAL WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.  BULK OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE
COASTAL PLAIN BY MIDNIGHT...BUT LINGERING ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

SO TO SUM UP...HEAVY RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED STREET
FLOODING ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS.  HOWEVER...A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT.
THE MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE LOCALIZED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
THE HAIL THREAT IS RATHER LOW GIVEN 500 MB TEMPS OF AROUND -6C AND
POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

ONE LITTLE NUANCE WE WANTED TO MENTION WAS THE LOW RISK FOR A BRIEF
WEAK TORNADO ACROSS WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT.  THERE IS ABOUT 25
TO 30 KNOTS OF WIND OFF THE DECK WITH RGEM/NAM SHOWING 0 TO 1 KM
HELICITY VALUES NEAR OR OVER 100.  GIVEN 70+ DEWPOINTS AND LOW LCL/S
THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR THAT.

HIGH TEMPS THU SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90...BUT A
FEW PLACES ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND MAY END UP A FEW DEGREES
WARMER IF THEY SEE A LONGER PERIOD OF SUNSHINE.  EITHER WAY IT WILL
BE VERY HUMID WITH 70+ DEWPOINTS. LOW TEMPS THU NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
60S TO NEAR 70 AND AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL ANOMALOUS H5 CUTOFF VORTEX
ACROSS HUDSON AND JAMES BAYS EXTENDING INTO QUEBEC DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. THIS WILL PUSH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH SLOWLY E OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND AROUND THE TUE-WED TIMEFRAME. THIS
WILL PUSH THE HOT...VERY HUMID AIR S OF THE REGION. EXPECT
GENERALLY SEASONABLE BUT DRIER CONDITIONS FROM LATE THIS WEEKEND
ONWARD.

SEVERAL WEAKENING SHORT WAVES WILL SLIDE AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AND PUSH TOWARD THE REGION...BUT WILL TEND TO WEAKEN AS
THEY CROSS WITH GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE. WILL SEE
PERIODS OF SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH TIMING IS IN
QUESTION ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO SUNDAY WITH GOOD
CONTINUITY...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE GEFS/ECENS MEANS WHICH
KEPT GOOD TIMING OF FEATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...
COLD FRONT PUSHES FURTHER OFFSHORE FRI MORNING. ANY LEFTOVER
SHOWERS WILL PUSH OFF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS EARLY...THEN WILL SEE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS MOVING IN. DRIER AIR ALSO PUSHES IN AS DEWPTS
FALL AWAY FROM THE S COAST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SO WITH A WEAK
PRES GRADIENT SO WILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE FRI NIGHT
IN THE NORMALLY PRONE INLAND LOCATIONS AS WELL AS ALONG THE S
COAST WHERE HIGHER DEWPTS WILL LINGER. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SAT...CROSSING THE REGION SAT
NIGHT. FRONT AND PRECIP WITH IT TENDS TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO
MORE STABLE AIR...BUT WILL STILL SEE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS AND MAYBE
A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OCCURS ACROSS
THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES INTO THE WESTERN CT VALLEY. PRECIP
WILL TEND TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET SAT NIGHT...THOUGH CAN NOT
RULE OUT A LINGERING SHOWER ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

ON SUNDAY...WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS SO WILL SEE DRY
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 80S...THOUGH HOLDING IN THE MID-
UPPER 70S ACROSS OUTER CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. A FEW SHOWERS MIGHT
APPROACH FAR WESTERN AREAS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MODELS HAVING A TOUGH TIME WITH TIMING OF SHORT WAVES IN THE
SLOWLY MIGRATING UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...AS WELL AS
WHICH SHORT WAVE WILL HAVE MORE ENERGY THAN OTHERS. FOR NOW...HAVE
LOW CHANCE POPS MENTIONED LATE MON/MON NIGHT AS ANOTHER FRONT
MOVES ACROSS. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TUE...THEN NOTING DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WED. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME DUE TO WIDE MODEL SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
WILL SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.
IN ADDITION...LOW CLOUDS MAY WORK ONTO THE ISLANDS AND CAPE
COD...BUT SHOULD NOT MAKE IT MUCH FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN THAT WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  PROBABLY VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE
INTO THE MID AFTERNOON...EXCEPT THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS
WHERE LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES WILL BE AT LEAST NEARBY.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN DURING THE DAY.  HOWEVER...THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL LIKELY WORK
INTO WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  A FEW
OF THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.  IN ADDITION...SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH MAINLY BROKEN MVFR TO VFR CIGS
ELSEWHERE. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY
PUSH INTO EASTERN MA AND RHODE ISLAND THU EVENING...BUT SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE.  BULK OF ACTIVITY OVER AFTER MIDNIGHT
EXCEPT PERHAPS CAPE AND ISLANDS...BUT PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MAY
DEVELOP.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TONIGHT.  SEA BREEZE SHOULD
COME TO AN END BETWEEN 21Z AND 23Z THIS EVENING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TONIGHT.  PATCHY FOG MAY
AFFECT THE TERMINAL FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP IN NORMALLY PRONE INLAND LOCATIONS AS WELL AS ALONG S
COAST LATE FRI NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS LATE SAT THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT. LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY PRECIP.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS.

MONDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR-IFR
IN ANY SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY AWAY FROM S COAST.
SHOWERS LINGER INTO MON NIGHT WITH BRIEF LOCAL MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS
AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.  MAY SEE SOME AREAS
OF FOG DEVELOP LATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN NEAR SHORE SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS DEVELOPING THU AFTERNOON.  IN
ADDITION...LONG SOUTHWEST FETCH WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO
BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET ACROSS MOST OPEN WATERS.  SCA HEADLINES GO INTO
EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THU AFTERNOON.  WINDS DIMINISH THU
EVENING...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP HEADLINES UP THROUGH THU NIGHT FOR
THE OUTER-WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT FROM THE LEFT OVER SWELL.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SW WINDS MAY GUST CLOSE TO 20 KT
ALONG SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS 4 FT OR LESS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GENERAL W-SW WINDS IN PLACE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA. MAY SEE GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS
SAT NIGHT AND AGAIN MON/MON NIGHT. WITH LONG SW FETCH IN PLACE...
SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 5-6 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME SO SMALL CRAFTS MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE HIGH TEMPS FOR OUR CLIMATE SITES TODAY THROUGH 7 PM...

BOSTON            92 AT 649 PM
BRADLEY           95 AT 407 PM
WORCESTER         88 AT 426 PM
PROVIDENCE        93 AT 434 PM
MILTON/BLUE HILL  91 AT 510 PM /ASOS/

RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY...

BOSTON      97 ON 1933 & 1931
PROVIDENCE        95 ON 2002 & 1949
BRADLEY           96 ON 1933
WORCESTER         94 ON 1892
MILTON/BLUE HILL  97 IN 1949

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ017>024.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ005>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ230>234-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 11 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 300202
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1002 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY IS IN STORE FOR THURSDAY.  AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. NOT AS WARM AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AND PROBABLY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE MAY BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

10 PM UPDATE...

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE REGION. A STICKY NIGHT IS
AHEAD AS DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THIS COMBINED
WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL HELP FOG BECOME ANOTHER ISSUE TONIGHT. RIGHT
NOW LOW STRATUS IS SITTING JUST OFF THE COAST OF ACK AND COULD
MOVE ONTO THE CAPE. MAY NEED TO WATCH THE CAPE AND ISLANDS FOR
WIDESPREAD FOG.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
GIVEN HIGH DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS...WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. LOW CLOUDS
MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST...BUT WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD NOT ADVANCE MUCH FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN
THAT.

LOW TEMPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS WILL ONLY DROP TO BETWEEN 70 AND 75
WITH A FEW UPPER 60S POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
***SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN AND THE
  POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
  EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND***

***A SECONDARY CONCERN WILL BE FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
  THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN
  MA AND NORTHERN CT***

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL TRANSPORT DEEP MOISTURE
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW PWATS EXCEEDING 2+
INCHES AND A SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JUST OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS.  WE MAY SEE
SOME PEEKS OF SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...BUT SHOULD SEE CLOUDS BEGIN
TO DOMINATE IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION MOISTURE.  GIVEN THE DEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BREAK OUT ANYWHERE ACROSS THE REGION BY THU AFTERNOON AND
PERHAPS EVEN EARLIER.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS ACTIVITY.

THE MAIN SHOW WILL ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY TO
SOME DEGREE.  NONETHELESS...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP AROUND 1000
MLCAPES ACROSS THE INTERIOR GIVEN 70+ DEWPOINTS IN PLACE.  0 TO 6 KM
SHEAR IS RATHER MARGINAL...BUT DOES INCREASE TO BETWEEN 30 AND 35
KNOTS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES TOWARDS 00Z.  A LOT OF THE
MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WORKING INTO WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT SOMETIME LATE THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THAT ACTIVITY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES EAST INTO AN
ENVIRONMENT WITH LESS INSTABILITY WHICH IS TYPICAL WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.  BULK OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE
COASTAL PLAIN BY MIDNIGHT...BUT LINGERING ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

SO TO SUM UP...HEAVY RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED STREET
FLOODING ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS.  HOWEVER...A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT.
THE MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE LOCALIZED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
THE HAIL THREAT IS RATHER LOW GIVEN 500 MB TEMPS OF AROUND -6C AND
POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

ONE LITTLE NUANCE WE WANTED TO MENTION WAS THE LOW RISK FOR A BRIEF
WEAK TORNADO ACROSS WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT.  THERE IS ABOUT 25
TO 30 KNOTS OF WIND OFF THE DECK WITH RGEM/NAM SHOWING 0 TO 1 KM
HELICITY VALUES NEAR OR OVER 100.  GIVEN 70+ DEWPOINTS AND LOW LCL/S
THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR THAT.

HIGH TEMPS THU SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90...BUT A
FEW PLACES ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND MAY END UP A FEW DEGREES
WARMER IF THEY SEE A LONGER PERIOD OF SUNSHINE.  EITHER WAY IT WILL
BE VERY HUMID WITH 70+ DEWPOINTS. LOW TEMPS THU NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
60S TO NEAR 70 AND AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL ANOMALOUS H5 CUTOFF VORTEX
ACROSS HUDSON AND JAMES BAYS EXTENDING INTO QUEBEC DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. THIS WILL PUSH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH SLOWLY E OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND AROUND THE TUE-WED TIMEFRAME. THIS
WILL PUSH THE HOT...VERY HUMID AIR S OF THE REGION. EXPECT
GENERALLY SEASONABLE BUT DRIER CONDITIONS FROM LATE THIS WEEKEND
ONWARD.

SEVERAL WEAKENING SHORT WAVES WILL SLIDE AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AND PUSH TOWARD THE REGION...BUT WILL TEND TO WEAKEN AS
THEY CROSS WITH GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE. WILL SEE
PERIODS OF SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH TIMING IS IN
QUESTION ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO SUNDAY WITH GOOD
CONTINUITY...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE GEFS/ECENS MEANS WHICH
KEPT GOOD TIMING OF FEATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...
COLD FRONT PUSHES FURTHER OFFSHORE FRI MORNING. ANY LEFTOVER
SHOWERS WILL PUSH OFF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS EARLY...THEN WILL SEE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS MOVING IN. DRIER AIR ALSO PUSHES IN AS DEWPTS
FALL AWAY FROM THE S COAST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SO WITH A WEAK
PRES GRADIENT SO WILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE FRI NIGHT
IN THE NORMALLY PRONE INLAND LOCATIONS AS WELL AS ALONG THE S
COAST WHERE HIGHER DEWPTS WILL LINGER. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SAT...CROSSING THE REGION SAT
NIGHT. FRONT AND PRECIP WITH IT TENDS TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO
MORE STABLE AIR...BUT WILL STILL SEE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS AND MAYBE
A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OCCURS ACROSS
THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES INTO THE WESTERN CT VALLEY. PRECIP
WILL TEND TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET SAT NIGHT...THOUGH CAN NOT
RULE OUT A LINGERING SHOWER ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

ON SUNDAY...WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS SO WILL SEE DRY
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 80S...THOUGH HOLDING IN THE MID-
UPPER 70S ACROSS OUTER CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. A FEW SHOWERS MIGHT
APPROACH FAR WESTERN AREAS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MODELS HAVING A TOUGH TIME WITH TIMING OF SHORT WAVES IN THE
SLOWLY MIGRATING UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...AS WELL AS
WHICH SHORT WAVE WILL HAVE MORE ENERGY THAN OTHERS. FOR NOW...HAVE
LOW CHANCE POPS MENTIONED LATE MON/MON NIGHT AS ANOTHER FRONT
MOVES ACROSS. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TUE...THEN NOTING DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WED. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME DUE TO WIDE MODEL SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
WILL SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.
IN ADDITION...LOW CLOUDS MAY WORK ONTO THE ISLANDS AND CAPE
COD...BUT SHOULD NOT MAKE IT MUCH FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN THAT WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  PROBABLY VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE
INTO THE MID AFTERNOON...EXCEPT THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS
WHERE LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES WILL BE AT LEAST NEARBY.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN DURING THE DAY.  HOWEVER...THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL LIKELY WORK
INTO WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  A FEW
OF THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.  IN ADDITION...SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH MAINLY BROKEN MVFR TO VFR CIGS
ELSEWHERE. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY
PUSH INTO EASTERN MA AND RHODE ISLAND THU EVENING...BUT SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE.  BULK OF ACTIVITY OVER AFTER MIDNIGHT
EXCEPT PERHAPS CAPE AND ISLANDS...BUT PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MAY
DEVELOP.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TONIGHT.  SEA BREEZE SHOULD
COME TO AN END BETWEEN 21Z AND 23Z THIS EVENING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TONIGHT.  PATCHY FOG MAY
AFFECT THE TERMINAL FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP IN NORMALLY PRONE INLAND LOCATIONS AS WELL AS ALONG S
COAST LATE FRI NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS LATE SAT THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT. LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY PRECIP.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS.

MONDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR-IFR
IN ANY SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY AWAY FROM S COAST.
SHOWERS LINGER INTO MON NIGHT WITH BRIEF LOCAL MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS
AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.  MAY SEE SOME AREAS
OF FOG DEVELOP LATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN NEAR SHORE SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS DEVELOPING THU AFTERNOON.  IN
ADDITION...LONG SOUTHWEST FETCH WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO
BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET ACROSS MOST OPEN WATERS.  SCA HEADLINES GO INTO
EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THU AFTERNOON.  WINDS DIMINISH THU
EVENING...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP HEADLINES UP THROUGH THU NIGHT FOR
THE OUTER-WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT FROM THE LEFT OVER SWELL.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SW WINDS MAY GUST CLOSE TO 20 KT
ALONG SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS 4 FT OR LESS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GENERAL W-SW WINDS IN PLACE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA. MAY SEE GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS
SAT NIGHT AND AGAIN MON/MON NIGHT. WITH LONG SW FETCH IN PLACE...
SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 5-6 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME SO SMALL CRAFTS MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE HIGH TEMPS FOR OUR CLIMATE SITES TODAY THROUGH 7 PM...

BOSTON            92 AT 649 PM
BRADLEY           95 AT 407 PM
WORCESTER         88 AT 426 PM
PROVIDENCE        93 AT 434 PM
MILTON/BLUE HILL  91 AT 510 PM /ASOS/

RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY...

BOSTON      97 ON 1933 & 1931
PROVIDENCE        95 ON 2002 & 1949
BRADLEY           96 ON 1933
WORCESTER         94 ON 1892
MILTON/BLUE HILL  97 IN 1949

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ017>024.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ005>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ230>234-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 11 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 292339
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
739 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY IS IN STORE FOR THURSDAY.  AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. NOT AS WARM AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AND PROBABLY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE MAY BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

730 PM UPDATE...
BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE AND DISSIPATED AS SEEN ON LATEST IR
SATELLITE LOOP. NOTING MORE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES...BUT APPEARS THIS SHOULD PASS TO THE SW OF THE REGION
WITH CONTINUED NW FLOW IN PLACE AS HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS REMAINS W
OF THE REGION. SOME CLOUDS MAY CLIP INTO WESTERN AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

WILL REMAIN DRY TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS.

HAVE UPDATED NEAR TERM FORECAST TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...
GIVEN HIGH DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS...WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. LOW CLOUDS
MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST...BUT WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD NOT ADVANCE MUCH FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN
THAT.

LOW TEMPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS WILL ONLY DROP TO BETWEEN 70 AND 75
WITH A FEW UPPER 60S POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
***SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN AND THE
  POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
  EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND***

***A SECONDARY CONCERN WILL BE FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
  THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN
  MA AND NORTHERN CT***

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL TRANSPORT DEEP MOISTURE
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW PWATS EXCEEDING 2+
INCHES AND A SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JUST OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS.  WE MAY SEE
SOME PEEKS OF SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...BUT SHOULD SEE CLOUDS BEGIN
TO DOMINATE IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION MOISTURE.  GIVEN THE DEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BREAK OUT ANYWHERE ACROSS THE REGION BY THU AFTERNOON AND
PERHAPS EVEN EARLIER.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS ACTIVITY.

THE MAIN SHOW WILL ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY TO
SOME DEGREE.  NONETHELESS...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP AROUND 1000
MLCAPES ACROSS THE INTERIOR GIVEN 70+ DEWPOINTS IN PLACE.  0 TO 6 KM
SHEAR IS RATHER MARGINAL...BUT DOES INCREASE TO BETWEEN 30 AND 35
KNOTS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES TOWARDS 00Z.  A LOT OF THE
MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WORKING INTO WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT SOMETIME LATE THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THAT ACTIVITY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES EAST INTO AN
ENVIRONMENT WITH LESS INSTABILITY WHICH IS TYPICAL WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.  BULK OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE
COASTAL PLAIN BY MIDNIGHT...BUT LINGERING ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

SO TO SUM UP...HEAVY RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED STREET
FLOODING ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS.  HOWEVER...A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT.
THE MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE LOCALIZED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
THE HAIL THREAT IS RATHER LOW GIVEN 500 MB TEMPS OF AROUND -6C AND
POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

ONE LITTLE NUANCE WE WANTED TO MENTION WAS THE LOW RISK FOR A BRIEF
WEAK TORNADO ACROSS WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT.  THERE IS ABOUT 25
TO 30 KNOTS OF WIND OFF THE DECK WITH RGEM/NAM SHOWING 0 TO 1 KM
HELICITY VALUES NEAR OR OVER 100.  GIVEN 70+ DEWPOINTS AND LOW LCL/S
THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR THAT.

HIGH TEMPS THU SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90...BUT A
FEW PLACES ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND MAY END UP A FEW DEGREES
WARMER IF THEY SEE A LONGER PERIOD OF SUNSHINE.  EITHER WAY IT WILL
BE VERY HUMID WITH 70+ DEWPOINTS. LOW TEMPS THU NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
60S TO NEAR 70 AND AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL ANOMALOUS H5 CUTOFF VORTEX
ACROSS HUDSON AND JAMES BAYS EXTENDING INTO QUEBEC DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. THIS WILL PUSH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH SLOWLY E OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND AROUND THE TUE-WED TIMEFRAME. THIS
WILL PUSH THE HOT...VERY HUMID AIR S OF THE REGION. EXPECT
GENERALLY SEASONABLE BUT DRIER CONDITIONS FROM LATE THIS WEEKEND
ONWARD.

SEVERAL WEAKENING SHORT WAVES WILL SLIDE AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AND PUSH TOWARD THE REGION...BUT WILL TEND TO WEAKEN AS
THEY CROSS WITH GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE. WILL SEE
PERIODS OF SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH TIMING IS IN
QUESTION ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO SUNDAY WITH GOOD
CONTINUITY...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE GEFS/ECENS MEANS WHICH
KEPT GOOD TIMING OF FEATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...
COLD FRONT PUSHES FURTHER OFFSHORE FRI MORNING. ANY LEFTOVER
SHOWERS WILL PUSH OFF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS EARLY...THEN WILL SEE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS MOVING IN. DRIER AIR ALSO PUSHES IN AS DEWPTS
FALL AWAY FROM THE S COAST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SO WITH A WEAK
PRES GRADIENT SO WILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE FRI NIGHT
IN THE NORMALLY PRONE INLAND LOCATIONS AS WELL AS ALONG THE S
COAST WHERE HIGHER DEWPTS WILL LINGER. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SAT...CROSSING THE REGION SAT
NIGHT. FRONT AND PRECIP WITH IT TENDS TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO
MORE STABLE AIR...BUT WILL STILL SEE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS AND MAYBE
A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OCCURS ACROSS
THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES INTO THE WESTERN CT VALLEY. PRECIP
WILL TEND TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET SAT NIGHT...THOUGH CAN NOT
RULE OUT A LINGERING SHOWER ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

ON SUNDAY...WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS SO WILL SEE DRY
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 80S...THOUGH HOLDING IN THE MID-
UPPER 70S ACROSS OUTER CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. A FEW SHOWERS MIGHT
APPROACH FAR WESTERN AREAS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MODELS HAVING A TOUGH TIME WITH TIMING OF SHORT WAVES IN THE
SLOWLY MIGRATING UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...AS WELL AS
WHICH SHORT WAVE WILL HAVE MORE ENERGY THAN OTHERS. FOR NOW...HAVE
LOW CHANCE POPS MENTIONED LATE MON/MON NIGHT AS ANOTHER FRONT
MOVES ACROSS. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TUE...THEN NOTING DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WED. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME DUE TO WIDE MODEL SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
WILL SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.
IN ADDITION...LOW CLOUDS MAY WORK ONTO THE ISLANDS AND CAPE
COD...BUT SHOULD NOT MAKE IT MUCH FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN THAT WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  PROBABLY VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE
INTO THE MID AFTERNOON...EXCEPT THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS
WHERE LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES WILL BE AT LEAST NEARBY.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN DURING THE DAY.  HOWEVER...THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL LIKELY WORK
INTO WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  A FEW
OF THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.  IN ADDITION...SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH MAINLY BROKEN MVFR TO VFR CIGS
ELSEWHERE. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY
PUSH INTO EASTERN MA AND RHODE ISLAND THU EVENING...BUT SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE.  BULK OF ACTIVITY OVER AFTER MIDNIGHT
EXCEPT PERHAPS CAPE AND ISLANDS...BUT PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MAY
DEVELOP.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TONIGHT.  SEA BREEZE SHOULD
COME TO AN END BETWEEN 21Z AND 23Z THIS EVENING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TONIGHT.  PATCHY FOG MAY
AFFECT THE TERMINAL FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP IN NORMALLY PRONE INLAND LOCATIONS AS WELL AS ALONG S
COAST LATE FRI NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS LATE SAT THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT. LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY PRECIP.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS.

MONDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR-IFR
IN ANY SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY AWAY FROM S COAST.
SHOWERS LINGER INTO MON NIGHT WITH BRIEF LOCAL MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS
AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.  MAY SEE SOME AREAS
OF FOG DEVELOP LATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN NEAR SHORE SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS DEVELOPING THU AFTERNOON.  IN
ADDITION...LONG SOUTHWEST FETCH WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO
BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET ACROSS MOST OPEN WATERS.  SCA HEADLINES GO INTO
EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THU AFTERNOON.  WINDS DIMINISH THU
EVENING...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP HEADLINES UP THROUGH THU NIGHT FOR
THE OUTER-WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT FROM THE LEFT OVER SWELL.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SW WINDS MAY GUST CLOSE TO 20 KT
ALONG SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS 4 FT OR LESS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GENERAL W-SW WINDS IN PLACE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA. MAY SEE GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS
SAT NIGHT AND AGAIN MON/MON NIGHT. WITH LONG SW FETCH IN PLACE...
SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 5-6 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME SO SMALL CRAFTS MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.CLIMATE...

HERE ARE THE HIGH TEMPS FOR OUR CLIMATE SITES TODAY THROUGH 7 PM...

BOSTON            92 AT 649 PM
BRADLEY           95 AT 407 PM
WORCESTER         88 AT 426 PM
PROVIDENCE        93 AT 434 PM
MILTON/BLUE HILL  91 AT 510 PM /ASOS/

RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY...

BOSTON      97 ON 1933 & 1931
PROVIDENCE        95 ON 2002 & 1949
BRADLEY           96 ON 1933
WORCESTER         94 ON 1892
MILTON/BLUE HILL  97 IN 1949

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ017>024.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ005>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ230>234-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 11 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK/EVT
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT
CLIMATE...EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 292119
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
519 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY IS IN STORE FOR THURSDAY.  AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. NOT AS WARM AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AND PROBABLY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE MAY BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY
TONIGHT.  DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...SO EXPECT IT TO FEEL
RATHER MUGGY.  LOW TEMPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS WILL ONLY DROP TO
BETWEEN 70 AND 75 WITH A FEW UPPER 60S POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST MA.

GIVEN HIGH DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS...WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.  LOW CLOUDS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST...BUT WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD NOT ADVANCE MUCH FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN THAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
***SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN AND THE
  POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
  EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND***

***A SECONDARY CONCERN WILL BE FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
  THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN
  MA AND NORTHERN CT***

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL TRANSPORT DEEP MOISTURE
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW PWATS EXCEEDING 2+
INCHES AND A SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JUST OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS.  WE MAY SEE
SOME PEEKS OF SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...BUT SHOULD SEE CLOUDS BEGIN
TO DOMINATE IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION MOISTURE.  GIVEN THE DEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BREAK OUT ANYWHERE ACROSS THE REGION BY THU AFTERNOON AND
PERHAPS EVEN EARLIER.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS ACTIVITY.

THE MAIN SHOW WILL ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY TO
SOME DEGREE.  NONETHELESS...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP AROUND 1000
MLCAPES ACROSS THE INTERIOR GIVEN 70+ DEWPOINTS IN PLACE.  0 TO 6 KM
SHEAR IS RATHER MARGINAL...BUT DOES INCREASE TO BETWEEN 30 AND 35
KNOTS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES TOWARDS 00Z.  A LOT OF THE
MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WORKING INTO WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT SOMETIME LATE THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THAT ACTIVITY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES EAST INTO AN
ENVIRONMENT WITH LESS INSTABILITY WHICH IS TYPICAL WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.  BULK OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE
COASTAL PLAIN BY MIDNIGHT...BUT LINGERING ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

SO TO SUM UP...HEAVY RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED STREET
FLOODING ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS.  HOWEVER...A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT.
THE MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE LOCALIZED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
THE HAIL THREAT IS RATHER LOW GIVEN 500 MB TEMPS OF AROUND -6C AND
POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

ONE LITTLE NUANCE WE WANTED TO MENTION WAS THE LOW RISK FOR A BRIEF
WEAK TORNADO ACROSS WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT.  THERE IS ABOUT 25
TO 30 KNOTS OF WIND OFF THE DECK WITH RGEM/NAM SHOWING 0 TO 1 KM
HELICITY VALUES NEAR OR OVER 100.  GIVEN 70+ DEWPOINTS AND LOW LCL/S
THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR THAT.

HIGH TEMPS THU SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90...BUT A
FEW PLACES ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND MAY END UP A FEW DEGREES
WARMER IF THEY SEE A LONGER PERIOD OF SUNSHINE.  EITHER WAY IT WILL
BE VERY HUMID WITH 70+ DEWPOINTS. LOW TEMPS THU NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
60S TO NEAR 70 AND AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL ANOMALOUS H5 CUTOFF VORTEX
ACROSS HUDSON AND JAMES BAYS EXTENDING INTO QUEBEC DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. THIS WILL PUSH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH SLOWLY E OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND AROUND THE TUE-WED TIMEFRAME. THIS
WILL PUSH THE HOT...VERY HUMID AIR S OF THE REGION. EXPECT
GENERALLY SEASONABLE BUT DRIER CONDITIONS FROM LATE THIS WEEKEND
ONWARD.

SEVERAL WEAKENING SHORT WAVES WILL SLIDE AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AND PUSH TOWARD THE REGION...BUT WILL TEND TO WEAKEN AS
THEY CROSS WITH GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE. WILL SEE
PERIODS OF SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH TIMING IS IN
QUESTION ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO SUNDAY WITH GOOD
CONTINUITY...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE GEFS/ECENS MEANS WHICH
KEPT GOOD TIMING OF FEATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...
COLD FRONT PUSHES FURTHER OFFSHORE FRI MORNING. ANY LEFTOVER
SHOWERS WILL PUSH OFF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS EARLY...THEN WILL SEE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS MOVING IN. DRIER AIR ALSO PUSHES IN AS DEWPTS
FALL AWAY FROM THE S COAST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SO WITH A WEAK
PRES GRADIENT SO WILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE FRI NIGHT
IN THE NORMALLY PRONE INLAND LOCATIONS AS WELL AS ALONG THE S
COAST WHERE HIGHER DEWPTS WILL LINGER. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SAT...CROSSING THE REGION SAT
NIGHT. FRONT AND PRECIP WITH IT TENDS TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO
MORE STABLE AIR...BUT WILL STILL SEE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS AND MAYBE
A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OCCURS ACROSS
THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES INTO THE WESTERN CT VALLEY. PRECIP
WILL TEND TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET SAT NIGHT...THOUGH CAN NOT
RULE OUT A LINGERING SHOWER ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

ON SUNDAY...WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS SO WILL SEE DRY
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 80S...THOUGH HOLDING IN THE MID-
UPPER 70S ACROSS OUTER CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. A FEW SHOWERS MIGHT
APPROACH FAR WESTERN AREAS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MODELS HAVING A TOUGH TIME WITH TIMING OF SHORT WAVES IN THE
SLOWLY MIGRATING UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...AS WELL AS
WHICH SHORT WAVE WILL HAVE MORE ENERGY THAN OTHERS. FOR NOW...HAVE
LOW CHANCE POPS MENTIONED LATE MON/MON NIGHT AS ANOTHER FRONT
MOVES ACROSS. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TUE...THEN NOTING DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WED. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME DUE TO WIDE MODEL SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT
FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.  IN
ADDITION...LOW CLOUDS MAY WORK ONTO THE ISLANDS AND CAPE COD...BUT
SHOULD NOT MAKE IT MUCH FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN THAT WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  PROBABLY VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE
INTO THE MID AFTERNOON...EXCEPT THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS
WHERE LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES WILL BE AT LEAST NEARBY.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN DURING THE DAY.  HOWEVER...THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL LIKELY WORK
INTO WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  A FEW
OF THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.  IN ADDITION...SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH MAINLY BROKEN MVFR TO VFR CIGS
ELSEWHERE. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY
PUSH INTO EASTERN MA AND RHODE ISLAND THU EVENING...BUT SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE.  BULK OF ACTIVITY OVER AFTER MIDNIGHT
EXCEPT PERHAPS CAPE AND ISLANDS...BUT PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MAY
DEVELOP.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TONIGHT.  SEA BREEZE SHOULD
COME TO AN END BETWEEN 21Z AND 23Z THIS EVENING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TONIGHT.  PATCHY FOG MAY
AFFECT THE TERMINAL FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP IN NORMALLY PRONE INLAND LOCATIONS AS WELL AS ALONG S
COAST LATE FRI NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS LATE SAT THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT. LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY PRECIP.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS.

MONDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR-IFR
IN ANY SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY AWAY FROM S COAST.
SHOWERS LINGER INTO MON NIGHT WITH BRIEF LOCAL MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS
AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.  MAY SEE SOME AREAS
OF FOG DEVELOP LATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN NEAR SHORE SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS DEVELOPING THU AFTERNOON.  IN
ADDITION...LONG SOUTHWEST FETCH WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO
BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET ACROSS MOST OPEN WATERS.  SCA HEADLINES GO INTO
EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THU AFTERNOON.  WINDS DIMINISH THU
EVENING...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP HEADLINES UP THROUGH THU NIGHT FOR
THE OUTER-WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT FROM THE LEFT OVER SWELL.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SW WINDS MAY GUST CLOSE TO 20 KT
ALONG SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS 4 FT OR LESS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GENERAL W-SW WINDS IN PLACE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA. MAY SEE GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS
SAT NIGHT AND AGAIN MON/MON NIGHT. WITH LONG SW FETCH IN PLACE...
SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 5-6 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME SO SMALL CRAFTS MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY...

BOSTON97 ON 1933 & 1931
PROVIDENCE  95 ON 2002 & 1949
BRADLEY     96 ON 1933
WORCESTER   94 ON 1892

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ017>024.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ005>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ230>234-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 11 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT
CLIMATE...STAFF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 292119
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
519 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY IS IN STORE FOR THURSDAY.  AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. NOT AS WARM AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AND PROBABLY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE MAY BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY
TONIGHT.  DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...SO EXPECT IT TO FEEL
RATHER MUGGY.  LOW TEMPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS WILL ONLY DROP TO
BETWEEN 70 AND 75 WITH A FEW UPPER 60S POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST MA.

GIVEN HIGH DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS...WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.  LOW CLOUDS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST...BUT WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD NOT ADVANCE MUCH FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN THAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
***SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN AND THE
  POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
  EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND***

***A SECONDARY CONCERN WILL BE FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
  THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN
  MA AND NORTHERN CT***

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL TRANSPORT DEEP MOISTURE
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW PWATS EXCEEDING 2+
INCHES AND A SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JUST OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS.  WE MAY SEE
SOME PEEKS OF SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...BUT SHOULD SEE CLOUDS BEGIN
TO DOMINATE IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION MOISTURE.  GIVEN THE DEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BREAK OUT ANYWHERE ACROSS THE REGION BY THU AFTERNOON AND
PERHAPS EVEN EARLIER.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS ACTIVITY.

THE MAIN SHOW WILL ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY TO
SOME DEGREE.  NONETHELESS...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP AROUND 1000
MLCAPES ACROSS THE INTERIOR GIVEN 70+ DEWPOINTS IN PLACE.  0 TO 6 KM
SHEAR IS RATHER MARGINAL...BUT DOES INCREASE TO BETWEEN 30 AND 35
KNOTS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES TOWARDS 00Z.  A LOT OF THE
MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WORKING INTO WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT SOMETIME LATE THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THAT ACTIVITY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES EAST INTO AN
ENVIRONMENT WITH LESS INSTABILITY WHICH IS TYPICAL WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.  BULK OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE
COASTAL PLAIN BY MIDNIGHT...BUT LINGERING ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

SO TO SUM UP...HEAVY RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED STREET
FLOODING ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS.  HOWEVER...A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT.
THE MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE LOCALIZED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
THE HAIL THREAT IS RATHER LOW GIVEN 500 MB TEMPS OF AROUND -6C AND
POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

ONE LITTLE NUANCE WE WANTED TO MENTION WAS THE LOW RISK FOR A BRIEF
WEAK TORNADO ACROSS WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT.  THERE IS ABOUT 25
TO 30 KNOTS OF WIND OFF THE DECK WITH RGEM/NAM SHOWING 0 TO 1 KM
HELICITY VALUES NEAR OR OVER 100.  GIVEN 70+ DEWPOINTS AND LOW LCL/S
THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR THAT.

HIGH TEMPS THU SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90...BUT A
FEW PLACES ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND MAY END UP A FEW DEGREES
WARMER IF THEY SEE A LONGER PERIOD OF SUNSHINE.  EITHER WAY IT WILL
BE VERY HUMID WITH 70+ DEWPOINTS. LOW TEMPS THU NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
60S TO NEAR 70 AND AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL ANOMALOUS H5 CUTOFF VORTEX
ACROSS HUDSON AND JAMES BAYS EXTENDING INTO QUEBEC DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. THIS WILL PUSH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH SLOWLY E OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND AROUND THE TUE-WED TIMEFRAME. THIS
WILL PUSH THE HOT...VERY HUMID AIR S OF THE REGION. EXPECT
GENERALLY SEASONABLE BUT DRIER CONDITIONS FROM LATE THIS WEEKEND
ONWARD.

SEVERAL WEAKENING SHORT WAVES WILL SLIDE AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AND PUSH TOWARD THE REGION...BUT WILL TEND TO WEAKEN AS
THEY CROSS WITH GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE. WILL SEE
PERIODS OF SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH TIMING IS IN
QUESTION ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO SUNDAY WITH GOOD
CONTINUITY...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE GEFS/ECENS MEANS WHICH
KEPT GOOD TIMING OF FEATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...
COLD FRONT PUSHES FURTHER OFFSHORE FRI MORNING. ANY LEFTOVER
SHOWERS WILL PUSH OFF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS EARLY...THEN WILL SEE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS MOVING IN. DRIER AIR ALSO PUSHES IN AS DEWPTS
FALL AWAY FROM THE S COAST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SO WITH A WEAK
PRES GRADIENT SO WILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE FRI NIGHT
IN THE NORMALLY PRONE INLAND LOCATIONS AS WELL AS ALONG THE S
COAST WHERE HIGHER DEWPTS WILL LINGER. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SAT...CROSSING THE REGION SAT
NIGHT. FRONT AND PRECIP WITH IT TENDS TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO
MORE STABLE AIR...BUT WILL STILL SEE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS AND MAYBE
A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OCCURS ACROSS
THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES INTO THE WESTERN CT VALLEY. PRECIP
WILL TEND TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET SAT NIGHT...THOUGH CAN NOT
RULE OUT A LINGERING SHOWER ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

ON SUNDAY...WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS SO WILL SEE DRY
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 80S...THOUGH HOLDING IN THE MID-
UPPER 70S ACROSS OUTER CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. A FEW SHOWERS MIGHT
APPROACH FAR WESTERN AREAS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MODELS HAVING A TOUGH TIME WITH TIMING OF SHORT WAVES IN THE
SLOWLY MIGRATING UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...AS WELL AS
WHICH SHORT WAVE WILL HAVE MORE ENERGY THAN OTHERS. FOR NOW...HAVE
LOW CHANCE POPS MENTIONED LATE MON/MON NIGHT AS ANOTHER FRONT
MOVES ACROSS. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TUE...THEN NOTING DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WED. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME DUE TO WIDE MODEL SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT
FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.  IN
ADDITION...LOW CLOUDS MAY WORK ONTO THE ISLANDS AND CAPE COD...BUT
SHOULD NOT MAKE IT MUCH FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN THAT WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  PROBABLY VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE
INTO THE MID AFTERNOON...EXCEPT THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS
WHERE LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES WILL BE AT LEAST NEARBY.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN DURING THE DAY.  HOWEVER...THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL LIKELY WORK
INTO WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  A FEW
OF THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.  IN ADDITION...SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH MAINLY BROKEN MVFR TO VFR CIGS
ELSEWHERE. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY
PUSH INTO EASTERN MA AND RHODE ISLAND THU EVENING...BUT SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE.  BULK OF ACTIVITY OVER AFTER MIDNIGHT
EXCEPT PERHAPS CAPE AND ISLANDS...BUT PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MAY
DEVELOP.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TONIGHT.  SEA BREEZE SHOULD
COME TO AN END BETWEEN 21Z AND 23Z THIS EVENING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TONIGHT.  PATCHY FOG MAY
AFFECT THE TERMINAL FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP IN NORMALLY PRONE INLAND LOCATIONS AS WELL AS ALONG S
COAST LATE FRI NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS LATE SAT THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT. LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY PRECIP.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS.

MONDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR-IFR
IN ANY SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY AWAY FROM S COAST.
SHOWERS LINGER INTO MON NIGHT WITH BRIEF LOCAL MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS
AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.  MAY SEE SOME AREAS
OF FOG DEVELOP LATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN NEAR SHORE SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS DEVELOPING THU AFTERNOON.  IN
ADDITION...LONG SOUTHWEST FETCH WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO
BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET ACROSS MOST OPEN WATERS.  SCA HEADLINES GO INTO
EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THU AFTERNOON.  WINDS DIMINISH THU
EVENING...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP HEADLINES UP THROUGH THU NIGHT FOR
THE OUTER-WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT FROM THE LEFT OVER SWELL.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SW WINDS MAY GUST CLOSE TO 20 KT
ALONG SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS 4 FT OR LESS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GENERAL W-SW WINDS IN PLACE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA. MAY SEE GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS
SAT NIGHT AND AGAIN MON/MON NIGHT. WITH LONG SW FETCH IN PLACE...
SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 5-6 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME SO SMALL CRAFTS MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY...

BOSTON97 ON 1933 & 1931
PROVIDENCE  95 ON 2002 & 1949
BRADLEY     96 ON 1933
WORCESTER   94 ON 1892

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ017>024.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ005>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ230>234-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 11 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT
CLIMATE...STAFF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 292119
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
519 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY IS IN STORE FOR THURSDAY.  AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. NOT AS WARM AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AND PROBABLY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE MAY BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY
TONIGHT.  DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...SO EXPECT IT TO FEEL
RATHER MUGGY.  LOW TEMPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS WILL ONLY DROP TO
BETWEEN 70 AND 75 WITH A FEW UPPER 60S POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST MA.

GIVEN HIGH DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS...WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.  LOW CLOUDS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST...BUT WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD NOT ADVANCE MUCH FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN THAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
***SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN AND THE
  POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
  EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND***

***A SECONDARY CONCERN WILL BE FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
  THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN
  MA AND NORTHERN CT***

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL TRANSPORT DEEP MOISTURE
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW PWATS EXCEEDING 2+
INCHES AND A SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JUST OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS.  WE MAY SEE
SOME PEEKS OF SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...BUT SHOULD SEE CLOUDS BEGIN
TO DOMINATE IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION MOISTURE.  GIVEN THE DEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BREAK OUT ANYWHERE ACROSS THE REGION BY THU AFTERNOON AND
PERHAPS EVEN EARLIER.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS ACTIVITY.

THE MAIN SHOW WILL ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY TO
SOME DEGREE.  NONETHELESS...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP AROUND 1000
MLCAPES ACROSS THE INTERIOR GIVEN 70+ DEWPOINTS IN PLACE.  0 TO 6 KM
SHEAR IS RATHER MARGINAL...BUT DOES INCREASE TO BETWEEN 30 AND 35
KNOTS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES TOWARDS 00Z.  A LOT OF THE
MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WORKING INTO WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT SOMETIME LATE THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THAT ACTIVITY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES EAST INTO AN
ENVIRONMENT WITH LESS INSTABILITY WHICH IS TYPICAL WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.  BULK OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE
COASTAL PLAIN BY MIDNIGHT...BUT LINGERING ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

SO TO SUM UP...HEAVY RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED STREET
FLOODING ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS.  HOWEVER...A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT.
THE MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE LOCALIZED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
THE HAIL THREAT IS RATHER LOW GIVEN 500 MB TEMPS OF AROUND -6C AND
POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

ONE LITTLE NUANCE WE WANTED TO MENTION WAS THE LOW RISK FOR A BRIEF
WEAK TORNADO ACROSS WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT.  THERE IS ABOUT 25
TO 30 KNOTS OF WIND OFF THE DECK WITH RGEM/NAM SHOWING 0 TO 1 KM
HELICITY VALUES NEAR OR OVER 100.  GIVEN 70+ DEWPOINTS AND LOW LCL/S
THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR THAT.

HIGH TEMPS THU SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90...BUT A
FEW PLACES ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND MAY END UP A FEW DEGREES
WARMER IF THEY SEE A LONGER PERIOD OF SUNSHINE.  EITHER WAY IT WILL
BE VERY HUMID WITH 70+ DEWPOINTS. LOW TEMPS THU NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
60S TO NEAR 70 AND AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL ANOMALOUS H5 CUTOFF VORTEX
ACROSS HUDSON AND JAMES BAYS EXTENDING INTO QUEBEC DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. THIS WILL PUSH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH SLOWLY E OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND AROUND THE TUE-WED TIMEFRAME. THIS
WILL PUSH THE HOT...VERY HUMID AIR S OF THE REGION. EXPECT
GENERALLY SEASONABLE BUT DRIER CONDITIONS FROM LATE THIS WEEKEND
ONWARD.

SEVERAL WEAKENING SHORT WAVES WILL SLIDE AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AND PUSH TOWARD THE REGION...BUT WILL TEND TO WEAKEN AS
THEY CROSS WITH GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE. WILL SEE
PERIODS OF SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH TIMING IS IN
QUESTION ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO SUNDAY WITH GOOD
CONTINUITY...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE GEFS/ECENS MEANS WHICH
KEPT GOOD TIMING OF FEATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...
COLD FRONT PUSHES FURTHER OFFSHORE FRI MORNING. ANY LEFTOVER
SHOWERS WILL PUSH OFF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS EARLY...THEN WILL SEE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS MOVING IN. DRIER AIR ALSO PUSHES IN AS DEWPTS
FALL AWAY FROM THE S COAST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SO WITH A WEAK
PRES GRADIENT SO WILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE FRI NIGHT
IN THE NORMALLY PRONE INLAND LOCATIONS AS WELL AS ALONG THE S
COAST WHERE HIGHER DEWPTS WILL LINGER. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SAT...CROSSING THE REGION SAT
NIGHT. FRONT AND PRECIP WITH IT TENDS TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO
MORE STABLE AIR...BUT WILL STILL SEE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS AND MAYBE
A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OCCURS ACROSS
THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES INTO THE WESTERN CT VALLEY. PRECIP
WILL TEND TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET SAT NIGHT...THOUGH CAN NOT
RULE OUT A LINGERING SHOWER ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

ON SUNDAY...WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS SO WILL SEE DRY
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 80S...THOUGH HOLDING IN THE MID-
UPPER 70S ACROSS OUTER CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. A FEW SHOWERS MIGHT
APPROACH FAR WESTERN AREAS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MODELS HAVING A TOUGH TIME WITH TIMING OF SHORT WAVES IN THE
SLOWLY MIGRATING UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...AS WELL AS
WHICH SHORT WAVE WILL HAVE MORE ENERGY THAN OTHERS. FOR NOW...HAVE
LOW CHANCE POPS MENTIONED LATE MON/MON NIGHT AS ANOTHER FRONT
MOVES ACROSS. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TUE...THEN NOTING DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WED. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME DUE TO WIDE MODEL SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT
FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.  IN
ADDITION...LOW CLOUDS MAY WORK ONTO THE ISLANDS AND CAPE COD...BUT
SHOULD NOT MAKE IT MUCH FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN THAT WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  PROBABLY VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE
INTO THE MID AFTERNOON...EXCEPT THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS
WHERE LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES WILL BE AT LEAST NEARBY.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN DURING THE DAY.  HOWEVER...THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL LIKELY WORK
INTO WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  A FEW
OF THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.  IN ADDITION...SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH MAINLY BROKEN MVFR TO VFR CIGS
ELSEWHERE. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY
PUSH INTO EASTERN MA AND RHODE ISLAND THU EVENING...BUT SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE.  BULK OF ACTIVITY OVER AFTER MIDNIGHT
EXCEPT PERHAPS CAPE AND ISLANDS...BUT PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MAY
DEVELOP.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TONIGHT.  SEA BREEZE SHOULD
COME TO AN END BETWEEN 21Z AND 23Z THIS EVENING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TONIGHT.  PATCHY FOG MAY
AFFECT THE TERMINAL FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP IN NORMALLY PRONE INLAND LOCATIONS AS WELL AS ALONG S
COAST LATE FRI NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS LATE SAT THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT. LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY PRECIP.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS.

MONDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR-IFR
IN ANY SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY AWAY FROM S COAST.
SHOWERS LINGER INTO MON NIGHT WITH BRIEF LOCAL MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS
AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.  MAY SEE SOME AREAS
OF FOG DEVELOP LATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN NEAR SHORE SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS DEVELOPING THU AFTERNOON.  IN
ADDITION...LONG SOUTHWEST FETCH WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO
BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET ACROSS MOST OPEN WATERS.  SCA HEADLINES GO INTO
EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THU AFTERNOON.  WINDS DIMINISH THU
EVENING...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP HEADLINES UP THROUGH THU NIGHT FOR
THE OUTER-WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT FROM THE LEFT OVER SWELL.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SW WINDS MAY GUST CLOSE TO 20 KT
ALONG SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS 4 FT OR LESS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GENERAL W-SW WINDS IN PLACE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA. MAY SEE GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS
SAT NIGHT AND AGAIN MON/MON NIGHT. WITH LONG SW FETCH IN PLACE...
SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 5-6 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME SO SMALL CRAFTS MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY...

BOSTON97 ON 1933 & 1931
PROVIDENCE  95 ON 2002 & 1949
BRADLEY     96 ON 1933
WORCESTER   94 ON 1892

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ017>024.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ005>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ230>234-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 11 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT
CLIMATE...STAFF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 292119
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
519 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY IS IN STORE FOR THURSDAY.  AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. NOT AS WARM AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AND PROBABLY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE MAY BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY
TONIGHT.  DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...SO EXPECT IT TO FEEL
RATHER MUGGY.  LOW TEMPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS WILL ONLY DROP TO
BETWEEN 70 AND 75 WITH A FEW UPPER 60S POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST MA.

GIVEN HIGH DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS...WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.  LOW CLOUDS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST...BUT WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD NOT ADVANCE MUCH FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN THAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
***SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN AND THE
  POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
  EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND***

***A SECONDARY CONCERN WILL BE FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
  THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN
  MA AND NORTHERN CT***

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL TRANSPORT DEEP MOISTURE
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW PWATS EXCEEDING 2+
INCHES AND A SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JUST OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS.  WE MAY SEE
SOME PEEKS OF SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...BUT SHOULD SEE CLOUDS BEGIN
TO DOMINATE IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION MOISTURE.  GIVEN THE DEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BREAK OUT ANYWHERE ACROSS THE REGION BY THU AFTERNOON AND
PERHAPS EVEN EARLIER.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS ACTIVITY.

THE MAIN SHOW WILL ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY TO
SOME DEGREE.  NONETHELESS...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP AROUND 1000
MLCAPES ACROSS THE INTERIOR GIVEN 70+ DEWPOINTS IN PLACE.  0 TO 6 KM
SHEAR IS RATHER MARGINAL...BUT DOES INCREASE TO BETWEEN 30 AND 35
KNOTS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES TOWARDS 00Z.  A LOT OF THE
MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WORKING INTO WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT SOMETIME LATE THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THAT ACTIVITY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES EAST INTO AN
ENVIRONMENT WITH LESS INSTABILITY WHICH IS TYPICAL WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.  BULK OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE
COASTAL PLAIN BY MIDNIGHT...BUT LINGERING ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

SO TO SUM UP...HEAVY RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED STREET
FLOODING ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS.  HOWEVER...A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT.
THE MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE LOCALIZED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
THE HAIL THREAT IS RATHER LOW GIVEN 500 MB TEMPS OF AROUND -6C AND
POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

ONE LITTLE NUANCE WE WANTED TO MENTION WAS THE LOW RISK FOR A BRIEF
WEAK TORNADO ACROSS WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT.  THERE IS ABOUT 25
TO 30 KNOTS OF WIND OFF THE DECK WITH RGEM/NAM SHOWING 0 TO 1 KM
HELICITY VALUES NEAR OR OVER 100.  GIVEN 70+ DEWPOINTS AND LOW LCL/S
THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR THAT.

HIGH TEMPS THU SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90...BUT A
FEW PLACES ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND MAY END UP A FEW DEGREES
WARMER IF THEY SEE A LONGER PERIOD OF SUNSHINE.  EITHER WAY IT WILL
BE VERY HUMID WITH 70+ DEWPOINTS. LOW TEMPS THU NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
60S TO NEAR 70 AND AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL ANOMALOUS H5 CUTOFF VORTEX
ACROSS HUDSON AND JAMES BAYS EXTENDING INTO QUEBEC DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. THIS WILL PUSH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH SLOWLY E OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND AROUND THE TUE-WED TIMEFRAME. THIS
WILL PUSH THE HOT...VERY HUMID AIR S OF THE REGION. EXPECT
GENERALLY SEASONABLE BUT DRIER CONDITIONS FROM LATE THIS WEEKEND
ONWARD.

SEVERAL WEAKENING SHORT WAVES WILL SLIDE AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AND PUSH TOWARD THE REGION...BUT WILL TEND TO WEAKEN AS
THEY CROSS WITH GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE. WILL SEE
PERIODS OF SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH TIMING IS IN
QUESTION ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO SUNDAY WITH GOOD
CONTINUITY...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO THE GEFS/ECENS MEANS WHICH
KEPT GOOD TIMING OF FEATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

DETAILS...

FRIDAY...
COLD FRONT PUSHES FURTHER OFFSHORE FRI MORNING. ANY LEFTOVER
SHOWERS WILL PUSH OFF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS EARLY...THEN WILL SEE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS MOVING IN. DRIER AIR ALSO PUSHES IN AS DEWPTS
FALL AWAY FROM THE S COAST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SO WITH A WEAK
PRES GRADIENT SO WILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE FRI NIGHT
IN THE NORMALLY PRONE INLAND LOCATIONS AS WELL AS ALONG THE S
COAST WHERE HIGHER DEWPTS WILL LINGER. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SAT...CROSSING THE REGION SAT
NIGHT. FRONT AND PRECIP WITH IT TENDS TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO
MORE STABLE AIR...BUT WILL STILL SEE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS AND MAYBE
A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OCCURS ACROSS
THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES INTO THE WESTERN CT VALLEY. PRECIP
WILL TEND TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET SAT NIGHT...THOUGH CAN NOT
RULE OUT A LINGERING SHOWER ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

ON SUNDAY...WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS SO WILL SEE DRY
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 80S...THOUGH HOLDING IN THE MID-
UPPER 70S ACROSS OUTER CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. A FEW SHOWERS MIGHT
APPROACH FAR WESTERN AREAS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT SUN NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MODELS HAVING A TOUGH TIME WITH TIMING OF SHORT WAVES IN THE
SLOWLY MIGRATING UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...AS WELL AS
WHICH SHORT WAVE WILL HAVE MORE ENERGY THAN OTHERS. FOR NOW...HAVE
LOW CHANCE POPS MENTIONED LATE MON/MON NIGHT AS ANOTHER FRONT
MOVES ACROSS. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TUE...THEN NOTING DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WED. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME DUE TO WIDE MODEL SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT
FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.  IN
ADDITION...LOW CLOUDS MAY WORK ONTO THE ISLANDS AND CAPE COD...BUT
SHOULD NOT MAKE IT MUCH FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN THAT WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  PROBABLY VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE
INTO THE MID AFTERNOON...EXCEPT THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS
WHERE LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES WILL BE AT LEAST NEARBY.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN DURING THE DAY.  HOWEVER...THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL LIKELY WORK
INTO WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  A FEW
OF THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.  IN ADDITION...SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH MAINLY BROKEN MVFR TO VFR CIGS
ELSEWHERE. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY
PUSH INTO EASTERN MA AND RHODE ISLAND THU EVENING...BUT SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE.  BULK OF ACTIVITY OVER AFTER MIDNIGHT
EXCEPT PERHAPS CAPE AND ISLANDS...BUT PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MAY
DEVELOP.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TONIGHT.  SEA BREEZE SHOULD
COME TO AN END BETWEEN 21Z AND 23Z THIS EVENING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TONIGHT.  PATCHY FOG MAY
AFFECT THE TERMINAL FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP IN NORMALLY PRONE INLAND LOCATIONS AS WELL AS ALONG S
COAST LATE FRI NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS LATE SAT THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT. LOCAL
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY PRECIP.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS.

MONDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOCAL MVFR-IFR
IN ANY SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY AWAY FROM S COAST.
SHOWERS LINGER INTO MON NIGHT WITH BRIEF LOCAL MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS
AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.  MAY SEE SOME AREAS
OF FOG DEVELOP LATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN NEAR SHORE SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS DEVELOPING THU AFTERNOON.  IN
ADDITION...LONG SOUTHWEST FETCH WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO
BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET ACROSS MOST OPEN WATERS.  SCA HEADLINES GO INTO
EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THU AFTERNOON.  WINDS DIMINISH THU
EVENING...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP HEADLINES UP THROUGH THU NIGHT FOR
THE OUTER-WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT FROM THE LEFT OVER SWELL.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SW WINDS MAY GUST CLOSE TO 20 KT
ALONG SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS 4 FT OR LESS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GENERAL W-SW WINDS IN PLACE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA. MAY SEE GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS
SAT NIGHT AND AGAIN MON/MON NIGHT. WITH LONG SW FETCH IN PLACE...
SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 5-6 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME SO SMALL CRAFTS MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY...

BOSTON97 ON 1933 & 1931
PROVIDENCE  95 ON 2002 & 1949
BRADLEY     96 ON 1933
WORCESTER   94 ON 1892

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ017>024.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ005>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ230>234-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 11 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT
CLIMATE...STAFF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 292009
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
406 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY IS IN STORE FOR THURSDAY.  AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. NOT AS WARM AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AND PROBABLY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE MAINLY
DRY...CAN/T RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY
TONIGHT.  DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...SO EXPECT IT TO FEEL
RATHER MUGGY.  LOW TEMPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS WILL ONLY DROP TO
BETWEEN 70 AND 75 WITH A FEW UPPER 60S POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST MA.

GIVEN HIGH DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS...WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.  LOW CLOUDS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST...BUT WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD NOT ADVANCE MUCH FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN THAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...


***SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN AND THE
  POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
  EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND***

***A SECONDARY CONCERN WILL BE FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
  THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN
  MA AND NORTHERN CT***

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL TRANSPORT DEEP MOISTURE
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW PWATS EXCEEDING 2+
INCHES AND A SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JUST OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS.  WE MAY SEE
SOME PEEKS OF SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...BUT SHOULD SEE CLOUDS BEGIN
TO DOMINATE IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION MOISTURE.  GIVEN THE DEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BREAK OUT ANYWHERE ACROSS THE REGION BY THU AFTERNOON AND
PERHAPS EVEN EARLIER.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS ACTIVITY.

THE MAIN SHOW WILL ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY TO
SOME DEGREE.  NONETHELESS...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP AROUND 1000
MLCAPES ACROSS THE INTERIOR GIVEN 70+ DEWPOINTS IN PLACE.  0 TO 6 KM
SHEAR IS RATHER MARGINAL...BUT DOES INCREASE TO BETWEEN 30 AND 35
KNOTS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES TOWARDS 00Z.  A LOT OF THE
MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WORKING INTO WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT SOMETIME LATE THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THAT ACTIVITY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES EAST INTO AN
ENVIRONMENT WITH LESS INSTABILITY WHICH IS TYPICAL WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.  BULK OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE
COASTAL PLAIN BY MIDNIGHT...BUT LINGERING ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

SO TO SUM UP...HEAVY RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED STREET
FLOODING ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS.  HOWEVER...A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT.
THE MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE LOCALIZED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
THE HAIL THREAT IS RATHER LOW GIVEN 500 MB TEMPS OF AROUND -6C AND
POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

ONE LITTLE NUANCE WE WANTED TO MENTION WAS THE LOW RISK FOR A BRIEF
WEAK TORNADO ACROSS WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT.  THERE IS ABOUT 25
TO 30 KNOTS OF WIND OFF THE DECK WITH RGEM/NAM SHOWING 0 TO 1 KM
HELICITY VALUES NEAR OR OVER 100.  GIVEN 70+ DEWPOINTS AND LOW LCL/S
THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR THAT.

HIGH TEMPS THU SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90...BUT A
FEW PLACES ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND MAY END UP A FEW DEGREES
WARMER IF THEY SEE A LONGER PERIOD OF SUNSHINE.  EITHER WAY IT WILL
BE VERY HUMID WITH 70+ DEWPOINTS. LOW TEMPS THU NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
60S TO NEAR 70 AND AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PATTERN CHANGE TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS IS ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS
  AND THUNDERSTORMS THU NIGHT

* NOT AS WARM AND HUMID FRIDAY AND BEYOND

* MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS FRIDAY THRU TUESDAY

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

IMPRESSIVE AND ANOMALOUS VORTEX CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AS
SEEN ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL BECOME THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE THIS PERIOD...AS IT EVOLVES INTO A MUCH BROADER CIRCULATION
OVER JAMES AND HUDSON BAY THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. THIS RESULTS
IN A BROAD MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL SUPPRESS EXCESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
AIRMASS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA SOUTHWARD BEGINNING FRIDAY AND
LASTING THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN GOOD MULTI
MODEL AGREEMENT AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE LARGE SCALE FLOW THIS PERIOD...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE
AVERAGE.

DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. MODEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.
WHILE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IS MARGINAL IN THE PREFRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT...PWATS CLIMB TO 2+ INCHES /+2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
CLIMO/. THUS GREATER RISK OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS POST FRONTAL AIRMASS DOESN/T
ARRIVE UNTIL FRIDAY.

FRIDAY THRU TUESDAY...

TREND TOWARD MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY ARRIVES
FRIDAY BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 60S. TOO DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME RANGE TO TIME INDIVIDUAL SHORT
WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW.  SO BEST WORDING WOULD BE MANY
HOURS OF DRY WEATHER THIS PERIOD BUT CYCLONIC FLOW AND COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN THE RISK OF A THUNDERSTORM DURING PEAK HEATING
HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT
FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.  IN
ADDITION...LOW CLOUDS MAY WORK ONTO THE ISLANDS AND CAPE COD...BUT
SHOULD NOT MAKE IT MUCH FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN THAT WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  PROBABLY VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE
INTO THE MID AFTERNOON...EXCEPT THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS
WHERE LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES WILL BE AT LEAST NEARBY.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN DURING THE DAY.  HOWEVER...THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL LIKELY WORK
INTO WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  A FEW
OF THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.  IN ADDITION...SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH MAINLY BROKEN MVFR TO VFR CIGS
ELSEWHERE. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY
PUSH INTO EASTERN MA AND RHODE ISLAND THU EVENING...BUT SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE.  BULK OF ACTIVITY OVER AFTER MIDNIGHT
EXCEPT PERHAPS CAPE AND ISLANDS...BUT PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MAY
DEVELOP.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TONIGHT.  SEA BREEZE SHOULD
COME TO AN END BETWEEN 21Z AND 23Z THIS EVENING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TONIGHT.  PATCHY FOG MAY
AFFECT THE TERMINAL FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS AND FOG.
MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.
VERY LOW RISK FOR AN AFTERNOON T-STORM SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS
AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.  MAY SEE SOME AREAS
OF FOG DEVELOP LATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN NEAR SHORE SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS DEVELOPING THU AFTERNOON.  IN
ADDITION...LONG SOUTHWEST FETCH WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO
BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET ACROSS MOST OPEN WATERS.  SCA HEADLINES GO INTO
EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THU AFTERNOON.  WINDS DIMINISH THU
EVENING...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP HEADLINES UP THROUGH THU NIGHT FOR
THE OUTER-WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT FROM THE LEFT OVER SWELL.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE WITH
WIND SHIFT FROM SSW TO WSW. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY. HIGH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE. LEFTOVER SOUTHERLY SWELLS ON SOUTH OCEAN WATERS FROM THU
NIGHT LINGER FRI BUT SLOWLY DIMINISH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 7/29:

BOSTON97 ON 1933 & 1931

PROVIDENCE95 ON 2002 & 1949

BRADLEY96 ON 1933

WORCESTER94 ON 1892

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ017>024.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ005>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ230>234-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 11 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA
CLIMATE...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 292009
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
406 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY IS IN STORE FOR THURSDAY.  AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. NOT AS WARM AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AND PROBABLY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE MAINLY
DRY...CAN/T RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY
TONIGHT.  DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...SO EXPECT IT TO FEEL
RATHER MUGGY.  LOW TEMPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS WILL ONLY DROP TO
BETWEEN 70 AND 75 WITH A FEW UPPER 60S POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST MA.

GIVEN HIGH DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS...WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.  LOW CLOUDS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST...BUT WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD NOT ADVANCE MUCH FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN THAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...


***SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN AND THE
  POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
  EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND***

***A SECONDARY CONCERN WILL BE FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
  THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN
  MA AND NORTHERN CT***

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL TRANSPORT DEEP MOISTURE
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW PWATS EXCEEDING 2+
INCHES AND A SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JUST OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS.  WE MAY SEE
SOME PEEKS OF SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...BUT SHOULD SEE CLOUDS BEGIN
TO DOMINATE IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION MOISTURE.  GIVEN THE DEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BREAK OUT ANYWHERE ACROSS THE REGION BY THU AFTERNOON AND
PERHAPS EVEN EARLIER.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS ACTIVITY.

THE MAIN SHOW WILL ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY TO
SOME DEGREE.  NONETHELESS...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP AROUND 1000
MLCAPES ACROSS THE INTERIOR GIVEN 70+ DEWPOINTS IN PLACE.  0 TO 6 KM
SHEAR IS RATHER MARGINAL...BUT DOES INCREASE TO BETWEEN 30 AND 35
KNOTS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES TOWARDS 00Z.  A LOT OF THE
MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WORKING INTO WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT SOMETIME LATE THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THAT ACTIVITY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES EAST INTO AN
ENVIRONMENT WITH LESS INSTABILITY WHICH IS TYPICAL WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.  BULK OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE
COASTAL PLAIN BY MIDNIGHT...BUT LINGERING ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

SO TO SUM UP...HEAVY RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED STREET
FLOODING ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS.  HOWEVER...A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT.
THE MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE LOCALIZED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
THE HAIL THREAT IS RATHER LOW GIVEN 500 MB TEMPS OF AROUND -6C AND
POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

ONE LITTLE NUANCE WE WANTED TO MENTION WAS THE LOW RISK FOR A BRIEF
WEAK TORNADO ACROSS WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT.  THERE IS ABOUT 25
TO 30 KNOTS OF WIND OFF THE DECK WITH RGEM/NAM SHOWING 0 TO 1 KM
HELICITY VALUES NEAR OR OVER 100.  GIVEN 70+ DEWPOINTS AND LOW LCL/S
THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR THAT.

HIGH TEMPS THU SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90...BUT A
FEW PLACES ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND MAY END UP A FEW DEGREES
WARMER IF THEY SEE A LONGER PERIOD OF SUNSHINE.  EITHER WAY IT WILL
BE VERY HUMID WITH 70+ DEWPOINTS. LOW TEMPS THU NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
60S TO NEAR 70 AND AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PATTERN CHANGE TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS IS ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS
  AND THUNDERSTORMS THU NIGHT

* NOT AS WARM AND HUMID FRIDAY AND BEYOND

* MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS FRIDAY THRU TUESDAY

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

IMPRESSIVE AND ANOMALOUS VORTEX CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AS
SEEN ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL BECOME THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE THIS PERIOD...AS IT EVOLVES INTO A MUCH BROADER CIRCULATION
OVER JAMES AND HUDSON BAY THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. THIS RESULTS
IN A BROAD MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL SUPPRESS EXCESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
AIRMASS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA SOUTHWARD BEGINNING FRIDAY AND
LASTING THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN GOOD MULTI
MODEL AGREEMENT AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE LARGE SCALE FLOW THIS PERIOD...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE
AVERAGE.

DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. MODEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.
WHILE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IS MARGINAL IN THE PREFRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT...PWATS CLIMB TO 2+ INCHES /+2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
CLIMO/. THUS GREATER RISK OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS POST FRONTAL AIRMASS DOESN/T
ARRIVE UNTIL FRIDAY.

FRIDAY THRU TUESDAY...

TREND TOWARD MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY ARRIVES
FRIDAY BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 60S. TOO DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME RANGE TO TIME INDIVIDUAL SHORT
WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW.  SO BEST WORDING WOULD BE MANY
HOURS OF DRY WEATHER THIS PERIOD BUT CYCLONIC FLOW AND COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN THE RISK OF A THUNDERSTORM DURING PEAK HEATING
HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT
FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.  IN
ADDITION...LOW CLOUDS MAY WORK ONTO THE ISLANDS AND CAPE COD...BUT
SHOULD NOT MAKE IT MUCH FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN THAT WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  PROBABLY VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE
INTO THE MID AFTERNOON...EXCEPT THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS
WHERE LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES WILL BE AT LEAST NEARBY.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN DURING THE DAY.  HOWEVER...THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL LIKELY WORK
INTO WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  A FEW
OF THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.  IN ADDITION...SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH MAINLY BROKEN MVFR TO VFR CIGS
ELSEWHERE. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY
PUSH INTO EASTERN MA AND RHODE ISLAND THU EVENING...BUT SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE.  BULK OF ACTIVITY OVER AFTER MIDNIGHT
EXCEPT PERHAPS CAPE AND ISLANDS...BUT PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MAY
DEVELOP.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TONIGHT.  SEA BREEZE SHOULD
COME TO AN END BETWEEN 21Z AND 23Z THIS EVENING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TONIGHT.  PATCHY FOG MAY
AFFECT THE TERMINAL FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS AND FOG.
MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.
VERY LOW RISK FOR AN AFTERNOON T-STORM SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS
AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.  MAY SEE SOME AREAS
OF FOG DEVELOP LATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN NEAR SHORE SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS DEVELOPING THU AFTERNOON.  IN
ADDITION...LONG SOUTHWEST FETCH WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO
BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET ACROSS MOST OPEN WATERS.  SCA HEADLINES GO INTO
EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THU AFTERNOON.  WINDS DIMINISH THU
EVENING...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP HEADLINES UP THROUGH THU NIGHT FOR
THE OUTER-WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT FROM THE LEFT OVER SWELL.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE WITH
WIND SHIFT FROM SSW TO WSW. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY. HIGH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE. LEFTOVER SOUTHERLY SWELLS ON SOUTH OCEAN WATERS FROM THU
NIGHT LINGER FRI BUT SLOWLY DIMINISH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 7/29:

BOSTON97 ON 1933 & 1931

PROVIDENCE95 ON 2002 & 1949

BRADLEY96 ON 1933

WORCESTER94 ON 1892

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ017>024.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ005>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ230>234-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 11 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA
CLIMATE...STAFF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 292009
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
406 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY IS IN STORE FOR THURSDAY.  AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. NOT AS WARM AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AND PROBABLY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE MAINLY
DRY...CAN/T RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY
TONIGHT.  DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...SO EXPECT IT TO FEEL
RATHER MUGGY.  LOW TEMPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS WILL ONLY DROP TO
BETWEEN 70 AND 75 WITH A FEW UPPER 60S POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST MA.

GIVEN HIGH DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS...WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.  LOW CLOUDS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST...BUT WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD NOT ADVANCE MUCH FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN THAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...


***SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN AND THE
  POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
  EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND***

***A SECONDARY CONCERN WILL BE FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
  THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN
  MA AND NORTHERN CT***

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL TRANSPORT DEEP MOISTURE
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW PWATS EXCEEDING 2+
INCHES AND A SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JUST OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS.  WE MAY SEE
SOME PEEKS OF SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...BUT SHOULD SEE CLOUDS BEGIN
TO DOMINATE IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION MOISTURE.  GIVEN THE DEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BREAK OUT ANYWHERE ACROSS THE REGION BY THU AFTERNOON AND
PERHAPS EVEN EARLIER.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS ACTIVITY.

THE MAIN SHOW WILL ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY TO
SOME DEGREE.  NONETHELESS...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP AROUND 1000
MLCAPES ACROSS THE INTERIOR GIVEN 70+ DEWPOINTS IN PLACE.  0 TO 6 KM
SHEAR IS RATHER MARGINAL...BUT DOES INCREASE TO BETWEEN 30 AND 35
KNOTS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES TOWARDS 00Z.  A LOT OF THE
MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WORKING INTO WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT SOMETIME LATE THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THAT ACTIVITY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES EAST INTO AN
ENVIRONMENT WITH LESS INSTABILITY WHICH IS TYPICAL WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.  BULK OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE
COASTAL PLAIN BY MIDNIGHT...BUT LINGERING ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

SO TO SUM UP...HEAVY RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED STREET
FLOODING ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS.  HOWEVER...A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT.
THE MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE LOCALIZED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
THE HAIL THREAT IS RATHER LOW GIVEN 500 MB TEMPS OF AROUND -6C AND
POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

ONE LITTLE NUANCE WE WANTED TO MENTION WAS THE LOW RISK FOR A BRIEF
WEAK TORNADO ACROSS WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT.  THERE IS ABOUT 25
TO 30 KNOTS OF WIND OFF THE DECK WITH RGEM/NAM SHOWING 0 TO 1 KM
HELICITY VALUES NEAR OR OVER 100.  GIVEN 70+ DEWPOINTS AND LOW LCL/S
THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR THAT.

HIGH TEMPS THU SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90...BUT A
FEW PLACES ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND MAY END UP A FEW DEGREES
WARMER IF THEY SEE A LONGER PERIOD OF SUNSHINE.  EITHER WAY IT WILL
BE VERY HUMID WITH 70+ DEWPOINTS. LOW TEMPS THU NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
60S TO NEAR 70 AND AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PATTERN CHANGE TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS IS ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS
  AND THUNDERSTORMS THU NIGHT

* NOT AS WARM AND HUMID FRIDAY AND BEYOND

* MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS FRIDAY THRU TUESDAY

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

IMPRESSIVE AND ANOMALOUS VORTEX CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AS
SEEN ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL BECOME THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE THIS PERIOD...AS IT EVOLVES INTO A MUCH BROADER CIRCULATION
OVER JAMES AND HUDSON BAY THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. THIS RESULTS
IN A BROAD MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL SUPPRESS EXCESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
AIRMASS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA SOUTHWARD BEGINNING FRIDAY AND
LASTING THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN GOOD MULTI
MODEL AGREEMENT AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE LARGE SCALE FLOW THIS PERIOD...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE
AVERAGE.

DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. MODEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.
WHILE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IS MARGINAL IN THE PREFRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT...PWATS CLIMB TO 2+ INCHES /+2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
CLIMO/. THUS GREATER RISK OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS POST FRONTAL AIRMASS DOESN/T
ARRIVE UNTIL FRIDAY.

FRIDAY THRU TUESDAY...

TREND TOWARD MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY ARRIVES
FRIDAY BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 60S. TOO DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME RANGE TO TIME INDIVIDUAL SHORT
WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW.  SO BEST WORDING WOULD BE MANY
HOURS OF DRY WEATHER THIS PERIOD BUT CYCLONIC FLOW AND COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN THE RISK OF A THUNDERSTORM DURING PEAK HEATING
HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT
FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.  IN
ADDITION...LOW CLOUDS MAY WORK ONTO THE ISLANDS AND CAPE COD...BUT
SHOULD NOT MAKE IT MUCH FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN THAT WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  PROBABLY VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE
INTO THE MID AFTERNOON...EXCEPT THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS
WHERE LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES WILL BE AT LEAST NEARBY.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN DURING THE DAY.  HOWEVER...THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL LIKELY WORK
INTO WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  A FEW
OF THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.  IN ADDITION...SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH MAINLY BROKEN MVFR TO VFR CIGS
ELSEWHERE. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY
PUSH INTO EASTERN MA AND RHODE ISLAND THU EVENING...BUT SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE.  BULK OF ACTIVITY OVER AFTER MIDNIGHT
EXCEPT PERHAPS CAPE AND ISLANDS...BUT PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MAY
DEVELOP.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TONIGHT.  SEA BREEZE SHOULD
COME TO AN END BETWEEN 21Z AND 23Z THIS EVENING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TONIGHT.  PATCHY FOG MAY
AFFECT THE TERMINAL FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS AND FOG.
MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.
VERY LOW RISK FOR AN AFTERNOON T-STORM SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS
AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.  MAY SEE SOME AREAS
OF FOG DEVELOP LATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN NEAR SHORE SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS DEVELOPING THU AFTERNOON.  IN
ADDITION...LONG SOUTHWEST FETCH WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO
BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET ACROSS MOST OPEN WATERS.  SCA HEADLINES GO INTO
EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THU AFTERNOON.  WINDS DIMINISH THU
EVENING...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP HEADLINES UP THROUGH THU NIGHT FOR
THE OUTER-WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT FROM THE LEFT OVER SWELL.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE WITH
WIND SHIFT FROM SSW TO WSW. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY. HIGH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE. LEFTOVER SOUTHERLY SWELLS ON SOUTH OCEAN WATERS FROM THU
NIGHT LINGER FRI BUT SLOWLY DIMINISH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 7/29:

BOSTON97 ON 1933 & 1931

PROVIDENCE95 ON 2002 & 1949

BRADLEY96 ON 1933

WORCESTER94 ON 1892

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ017>024.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ005>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ230>234-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 11 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA
CLIMATE...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 292009
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
406 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY IS IN STORE FOR THURSDAY.  AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. NOT AS WARM AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AND PROBABLY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE MAINLY
DRY...CAN/T RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY
TONIGHT.  DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...SO EXPECT IT TO FEEL
RATHER MUGGY.  LOW TEMPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS WILL ONLY DROP TO
BETWEEN 70 AND 75 WITH A FEW UPPER 60S POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST MA.

GIVEN HIGH DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS...WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.  LOW CLOUDS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST...BUT WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD NOT ADVANCE MUCH FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN THAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...


***SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN AND THE
  POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
  EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND***

***A SECONDARY CONCERN WILL BE FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
  THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN
  MA AND NORTHERN CT***

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL TRANSPORT DEEP MOISTURE
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW PWATS EXCEEDING 2+
INCHES AND A SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JUST OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS.  WE MAY SEE
SOME PEEKS OF SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...BUT SHOULD SEE CLOUDS BEGIN
TO DOMINATE IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION MOISTURE.  GIVEN THE DEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BREAK OUT ANYWHERE ACROSS THE REGION BY THU AFTERNOON AND
PERHAPS EVEN EARLIER.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS ACTIVITY.

THE MAIN SHOW WILL ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY TO
SOME DEGREE.  NONETHELESS...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP AROUND 1000
MLCAPES ACROSS THE INTERIOR GIVEN 70+ DEWPOINTS IN PLACE.  0 TO 6 KM
SHEAR IS RATHER MARGINAL...BUT DOES INCREASE TO BETWEEN 30 AND 35
KNOTS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES TOWARDS 00Z.  A LOT OF THE
MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WORKING INTO WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT SOMETIME LATE THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THAT ACTIVITY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES EAST INTO AN
ENVIRONMENT WITH LESS INSTABILITY WHICH IS TYPICAL WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.  BULK OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE
COASTAL PLAIN BY MIDNIGHT...BUT LINGERING ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

SO TO SUM UP...HEAVY RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED STREET
FLOODING ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS.  HOWEVER...A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT.
THE MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE LOCALIZED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
THE HAIL THREAT IS RATHER LOW GIVEN 500 MB TEMPS OF AROUND -6C AND
POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

ONE LITTLE NUANCE WE WANTED TO MENTION WAS THE LOW RISK FOR A BRIEF
WEAK TORNADO ACROSS WESTERN MA AND NORTHERN CT.  THERE IS ABOUT 25
TO 30 KNOTS OF WIND OFF THE DECK WITH RGEM/NAM SHOWING 0 TO 1 KM
HELICITY VALUES NEAR OR OVER 100.  GIVEN 70+ DEWPOINTS AND LOW LCL/S
THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR THAT.

HIGH TEMPS THU SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90...BUT A
FEW PLACES ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND MAY END UP A FEW DEGREES
WARMER IF THEY SEE A LONGER PERIOD OF SUNSHINE.  EITHER WAY IT WILL
BE VERY HUMID WITH 70+ DEWPOINTS. LOW TEMPS THU NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
60S TO NEAR 70 AND AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PATTERN CHANGE TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS IS ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS
  AND THUNDERSTORMS THU NIGHT

* NOT AS WARM AND HUMID FRIDAY AND BEYOND

* MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS FRIDAY THRU TUESDAY

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

IMPRESSIVE AND ANOMALOUS VORTEX CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AS
SEEN ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL BECOME THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE THIS PERIOD...AS IT EVOLVES INTO A MUCH BROADER CIRCULATION
OVER JAMES AND HUDSON BAY THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. THIS RESULTS
IN A BROAD MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL SUPPRESS EXCESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
AIRMASS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA SOUTHWARD BEGINNING FRIDAY AND
LASTING THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN GOOD MULTI
MODEL AGREEMENT AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE LARGE SCALE FLOW THIS PERIOD...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE
AVERAGE.

DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. MODEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.
WHILE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IS MARGINAL IN THE PREFRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT...PWATS CLIMB TO 2+ INCHES /+2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
CLIMO/. THUS GREATER RISK OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS POST FRONTAL AIRMASS DOESN/T
ARRIVE UNTIL FRIDAY.

FRIDAY THRU TUESDAY...

TREND TOWARD MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY ARRIVES
FRIDAY BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 60S. TOO DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME RANGE TO TIME INDIVIDUAL SHORT
WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW.  SO BEST WORDING WOULD BE MANY
HOURS OF DRY WEATHER THIS PERIOD BUT CYCLONIC FLOW AND COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN THE RISK OF A THUNDERSTORM DURING PEAK HEATING
HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT
FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.  IN
ADDITION...LOW CLOUDS MAY WORK ONTO THE ISLANDS AND CAPE COD...BUT
SHOULD NOT MAKE IT MUCH FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN THAT WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  PROBABLY VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE
INTO THE MID AFTERNOON...EXCEPT THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS
WHERE LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES WILL BE AT LEAST NEARBY.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN DURING THE DAY.  HOWEVER...THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL LIKELY WORK
INTO WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  A FEW
OF THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.  IN ADDITION...SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH MAINLY BROKEN MVFR TO VFR CIGS
ELSEWHERE. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY
PUSH INTO EASTERN MA AND RHODE ISLAND THU EVENING...BUT SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE.  BULK OF ACTIVITY OVER AFTER MIDNIGHT
EXCEPT PERHAPS CAPE AND ISLANDS...BUT PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MAY
DEVELOP.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TONIGHT.  SEA BREEZE SHOULD
COME TO AN END BETWEEN 21Z AND 23Z THIS EVENING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TONIGHT.  PATCHY FOG MAY
AFFECT THE TERMINAL FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS AND FOG.
MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.
VERY LOW RISK FOR AN AFTERNOON T-STORM SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS
AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.  MAY SEE SOME AREAS
OF FOG DEVELOP LATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN NEAR SHORE SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS DEVELOPING THU AFTERNOON.  IN
ADDITION...LONG SOUTHWEST FETCH WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO
BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET ACROSS MOST OPEN WATERS.  SCA HEADLINES GO INTO
EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THU AFTERNOON.  WINDS DIMINISH THU
EVENING...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP HEADLINES UP THROUGH THU NIGHT FOR
THE OUTER-WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT FROM THE LEFT OVER SWELL.

OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE WITH
WIND SHIFT FROM SSW TO WSW. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY. HIGH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE. LEFTOVER SOUTHERLY SWELLS ON SOUTH OCEAN WATERS FROM THU
NIGHT LINGER FRI BUT SLOWLY DIMINISH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 7/29:

BOSTON97 ON 1933 & 1931

PROVIDENCE95 ON 2002 & 1949

BRADLEY96 ON 1933

WORCESTER94 ON 1892

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ017>024.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ005>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ230>234-236-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 11 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ250-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/NOCERA
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA
CLIMATE...STAFF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 291814
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
213 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT
AS WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
AND PROBABLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL BE MAINLY DRY...CAN/T RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

2 PM UPDATE...

***HOT AFTERNOON ON TAP FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND***

HOT AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.  THE EXCEPTION IS
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE LOCALIZED SEA BREEZES
WERE KEEPING TEMPS COOLER.  MAY SEE PORTIONS OF EASTERN MA COAST
SHOOT UP SEVERAL DEGREES IN THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS...AS WINDS MAY
TURN MORE SOUTHERLY.

OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON.  WE CAN NOT RULE
OUT A VERY ISOLATED SPOT SHOWER OR TWO THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BUT
EVEN IF IT OCCURS IT WOULD BE EXTREMELY ISOLATED.  THEREFORE...WILL
NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...

DRY WEATHER WILL RESUME TONIGHT. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE ANOTHER
ROUND OF FOG ESP FOR THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS WHERE
DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHEST. OTHERWISE A MUGGY AND MILD NIGHT WILL BE
ON TAP WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE LOW 70S.

TOMORROW...

DESCENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ON THURSDAY PUSHING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. WARM...HUMID AIRMASS WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING FRONT. THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH OF THE REGION TO HAVE 70+
DEWPOINTS. THIS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY LOWER...IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S. HEAT INDICES WILL STILL BE HIGH...REACHING INTO THE
LOW TO MID 90S.

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE FRONT. IN FACT
MOST MODELS HAVE SPED THIS SYSTEM UP BY ABOUT 6+ HOURS. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AROUND 18Z AND
PUSH ACROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW STRONG TO A SEVERE
STORM IS POSSIBLE AS INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE HIGH WITH MARGINAL
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SHEAR VALUES LOOK TO BE ALONG OR BEHIND THE
FRONT...WHICH COULD LIMIT STRONG/SEVERE POTENTIAL. BIGGEST THREAT
WITH THESE STORMS APPEARS TO BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS LEADING TO NUISANCE
FLOODING AS PWAT VALUES ARE ABOUT 2+ INCHES. GUSTY WINDS/LOCALIZED
DOWNBURST ALSO CANNOT BE RULE OUT DUE TO THE INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PATTERN CHANGE TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS IS ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS
  AND THUNDERSTORMS THU NIGHT

* NOT AS WARM AND HUMID FRIDAY AND BEYOND

* MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS FRIDAY THRU TUESDAY

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

IMPRESSIVE AND ANOMALOUS VORTEX CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AS
SEEN ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL BECOME THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE THIS PERIOD...AS IT EVOLVES INTO A MUCH BROADER CIRCULATION
OVER JAMES AND HUDSON BAY THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. THIS RESULTS
IN A BROAD MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL SUPPRESS EXCESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
AIRMASS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA SOUTHWARD BEGINNING FRIDAY AND
LASTING THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN GOOD MULTI
MODEL AGREEMENT AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE LARGE SCALE FLOW THIS PERIOD...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE
AVERAGE.

DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. MODEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.
WHILE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IS MARGINAL IN THE PREFRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT...PWATS CLIMB TO 2+ INCHES /+2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
CLIMO/. THUS GREATER RISK OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS POST FRONTAL AIRMASS DOESN/T
ARRIVE UNTIL FRIDAY.

FRIDAY THRU TUESDAY...

TREND TOWARD MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY ARRIVES
FRIDAY BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 60S. TOO DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME RANGE TO TIME INDIVIDUAL SHORT
WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW.  SO BEST WORDING WOULD BE MANY
HOURS OF DRY WEATHER THIS PERIOD BUT CYCLONIC FLOW AND COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN THE RISK OF A THUNDERSTORM DURING PEAK HEATING
HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT
FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.  IN
ADDITION...LOW CLOUDS MAY WORK ONTO THE ISLANDS AND CAPE COD...BUT
SHOULD NOT MAKE IT MUCH FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN THAT WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  PROBABLY VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE
INTO THE MID AFTERNOON...EXCEPT THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS
WHERE LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES WILL BE AT LEAST NEARBY.  A FEW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN DURING THE DAY.
HOWEVER...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
WORK INTO WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  A
FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.  IN ADDITION...SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH MAINLY BROKEN MVFR TO VFR CIGS
ELSEWHERE. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY
PUSH INTO EASTERN MA AND RHODE ISLAND THU EVENING...BUT SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE.  BULK OF ACTIVITY OVER AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TONIGHT.  SEA BREEZE SHOULD
COME TO AN END BETWEEN 21Z AND 23Z THIS EVENING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TONIGHT.  PATCHY FOG MAY
AFFECT THE TERMINAL FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS AND FOG.
MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.
VERY LOW RISK FOR AN AFTERNOON T-STORM SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA TODAY AND TONIGHT HAS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE IN PLACE. APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WILL INCREASE
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN WATERS. COULD SEE SOME GUSTY NEAR 25 KTS.
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL INCREASE SEAS BETWEEN 4-6 FEET. A
SCA MAY BE NEEDED ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
POSSIBLE. ROUGH SEAS ON SOUTH OCEAN WATERS WITH WIND WAVES OF 3 TO 6
FT POSSIBLE. VSBY REDUCED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS AND FOG.
MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE WITH
WIND SHIFT FROM SSW TO WSW. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY. HIGH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE. LEFTOVER SOUTHERLY SWELLS ON SOUTH OCEAN WATERS FROM THU
NIGHT LINGER FRI BUT SLOWLY DIMINISH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 7/29:

BOSTON97 ON 1933 & 1931

PROVIDENCE95 ON 2002 & 1949

BRADLEY96 ON 1933

WORCESTER94 ON 1892

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ017>024.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ005>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN
CLIMATE...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291814
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
213 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT
AS WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
AND PROBABLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL BE MAINLY DRY...CAN/T RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

2 PM UPDATE...

***HOT AFTERNOON ON TAP FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND***

HOT AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.  THE EXCEPTION IS
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE LOCALIZED SEA BREEZES
WERE KEEPING TEMPS COOLER.  MAY SEE PORTIONS OF EASTERN MA COAST
SHOOT UP SEVERAL DEGREES IN THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS...AS WINDS MAY
TURN MORE SOUTHERLY.

OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON.  WE CAN NOT RULE
OUT A VERY ISOLATED SPOT SHOWER OR TWO THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BUT
EVEN IF IT OCCURS IT WOULD BE EXTREMELY ISOLATED.  THEREFORE...WILL
NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...

DRY WEATHER WILL RESUME TONIGHT. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE ANOTHER
ROUND OF FOG ESP FOR THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS WHERE
DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHEST. OTHERWISE A MUGGY AND MILD NIGHT WILL BE
ON TAP WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE LOW 70S.

TOMORROW...

DESCENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ON THURSDAY PUSHING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. WARM...HUMID AIRMASS WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING FRONT. THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH OF THE REGION TO HAVE 70+
DEWPOINTS. THIS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY LOWER...IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S. HEAT INDICES WILL STILL BE HIGH...REACHING INTO THE
LOW TO MID 90S.

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE FRONT. IN FACT
MOST MODELS HAVE SPED THIS SYSTEM UP BY ABOUT 6+ HOURS. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AROUND 18Z AND
PUSH ACROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW STRONG TO A SEVERE
STORM IS POSSIBLE AS INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE HIGH WITH MARGINAL
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SHEAR VALUES LOOK TO BE ALONG OR BEHIND THE
FRONT...WHICH COULD LIMIT STRONG/SEVERE POTENTIAL. BIGGEST THREAT
WITH THESE STORMS APPEARS TO BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS LEADING TO NUISANCE
FLOODING AS PWAT VALUES ARE ABOUT 2+ INCHES. GUSTY WINDS/LOCALIZED
DOWNBURST ALSO CANNOT BE RULE OUT DUE TO THE INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PATTERN CHANGE TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS IS ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS
  AND THUNDERSTORMS THU NIGHT

* NOT AS WARM AND HUMID FRIDAY AND BEYOND

* MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS FRIDAY THRU TUESDAY

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

IMPRESSIVE AND ANOMALOUS VORTEX CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AS
SEEN ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL BECOME THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE THIS PERIOD...AS IT EVOLVES INTO A MUCH BROADER CIRCULATION
OVER JAMES AND HUDSON BAY THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. THIS RESULTS
IN A BROAD MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL SUPPRESS EXCESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
AIRMASS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA SOUTHWARD BEGINNING FRIDAY AND
LASTING THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN GOOD MULTI
MODEL AGREEMENT AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE LARGE SCALE FLOW THIS PERIOD...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE
AVERAGE.

DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. MODEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.
WHILE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IS MARGINAL IN THE PREFRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT...PWATS CLIMB TO 2+ INCHES /+2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
CLIMO/. THUS GREATER RISK OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS POST FRONTAL AIRMASS DOESN/T
ARRIVE UNTIL FRIDAY.

FRIDAY THRU TUESDAY...

TREND TOWARD MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY ARRIVES
FRIDAY BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 60S. TOO DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME RANGE TO TIME INDIVIDUAL SHORT
WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW.  SO BEST WORDING WOULD BE MANY
HOURS OF DRY WEATHER THIS PERIOD BUT CYCLONIC FLOW AND COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN THE RISK OF A THUNDERSTORM DURING PEAK HEATING
HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT
FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.  IN
ADDITION...LOW CLOUDS MAY WORK ONTO THE ISLANDS AND CAPE COD...BUT
SHOULD NOT MAKE IT MUCH FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN THAT WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  PROBABLY VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE
INTO THE MID AFTERNOON...EXCEPT THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS
WHERE LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES WILL BE AT LEAST NEARBY.  A FEW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN DURING THE DAY.
HOWEVER...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
WORK INTO WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  A
FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.  IN ADDITION...SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH MAINLY BROKEN MVFR TO VFR CIGS
ELSEWHERE. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY
PUSH INTO EASTERN MA AND RHODE ISLAND THU EVENING...BUT SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE.  BULK OF ACTIVITY OVER AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TONIGHT.  SEA BREEZE SHOULD
COME TO AN END BETWEEN 21Z AND 23Z THIS EVENING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TONIGHT.  PATCHY FOG MAY
AFFECT THE TERMINAL FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS AND FOG.
MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.
VERY LOW RISK FOR AN AFTERNOON T-STORM SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA TODAY AND TONIGHT HAS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE IN PLACE. APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WILL INCREASE
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN WATERS. COULD SEE SOME GUSTY NEAR 25 KTS.
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL INCREASE SEAS BETWEEN 4-6 FEET. A
SCA MAY BE NEEDED ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
POSSIBLE. ROUGH SEAS ON SOUTH OCEAN WATERS WITH WIND WAVES OF 3 TO 6
FT POSSIBLE. VSBY REDUCED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS AND FOG.
MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE WITH
WIND SHIFT FROM SSW TO WSW. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY. HIGH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE. LEFTOVER SOUTHERLY SWELLS ON SOUTH OCEAN WATERS FROM THU
NIGHT LINGER FRI BUT SLOWLY DIMINISH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 7/29:

BOSTON97 ON 1933 & 1931

PROVIDENCE95 ON 2002 & 1949

BRADLEY96 ON 1933

WORCESTER94 ON 1892

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ017>024.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ005>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN
CLIMATE...STAFF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 291814
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
213 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT
AS WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
AND PROBABLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL BE MAINLY DRY...CAN/T RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

2 PM UPDATE...

***HOT AFTERNOON ON TAP FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND***

HOT AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.  THE EXCEPTION IS
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE LOCALIZED SEA BREEZES
WERE KEEPING TEMPS COOLER.  MAY SEE PORTIONS OF EASTERN MA COAST
SHOOT UP SEVERAL DEGREES IN THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS...AS WINDS MAY
TURN MORE SOUTHERLY.

OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON.  WE CAN NOT RULE
OUT A VERY ISOLATED SPOT SHOWER OR TWO THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BUT
EVEN IF IT OCCURS IT WOULD BE EXTREMELY ISOLATED.  THEREFORE...WILL
NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...

DRY WEATHER WILL RESUME TONIGHT. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE ANOTHER
ROUND OF FOG ESP FOR THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS WHERE
DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHEST. OTHERWISE A MUGGY AND MILD NIGHT WILL BE
ON TAP WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE LOW 70S.

TOMORROW...

DESCENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ON THURSDAY PUSHING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. WARM...HUMID AIRMASS WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING FRONT. THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH OF THE REGION TO HAVE 70+
DEWPOINTS. THIS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY LOWER...IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S. HEAT INDICES WILL STILL BE HIGH...REACHING INTO THE
LOW TO MID 90S.

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE FRONT. IN FACT
MOST MODELS HAVE SPED THIS SYSTEM UP BY ABOUT 6+ HOURS. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AROUND 18Z AND
PUSH ACROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW STRONG TO A SEVERE
STORM IS POSSIBLE AS INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE HIGH WITH MARGINAL
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SHEAR VALUES LOOK TO BE ALONG OR BEHIND THE
FRONT...WHICH COULD LIMIT STRONG/SEVERE POTENTIAL. BIGGEST THREAT
WITH THESE STORMS APPEARS TO BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS LEADING TO NUISANCE
FLOODING AS PWAT VALUES ARE ABOUT 2+ INCHES. GUSTY WINDS/LOCALIZED
DOWNBURST ALSO CANNOT BE RULE OUT DUE TO THE INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PATTERN CHANGE TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS IS ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS
  AND THUNDERSTORMS THU NIGHT

* NOT AS WARM AND HUMID FRIDAY AND BEYOND

* MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS FRIDAY THRU TUESDAY

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

IMPRESSIVE AND ANOMALOUS VORTEX CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AS
SEEN ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL BECOME THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE THIS PERIOD...AS IT EVOLVES INTO A MUCH BROADER CIRCULATION
OVER JAMES AND HUDSON BAY THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. THIS RESULTS
IN A BROAD MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL SUPPRESS EXCESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
AIRMASS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA SOUTHWARD BEGINNING FRIDAY AND
LASTING THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN GOOD MULTI
MODEL AGREEMENT AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE LARGE SCALE FLOW THIS PERIOD...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE
AVERAGE.

DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. MODEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.
WHILE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IS MARGINAL IN THE PREFRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT...PWATS CLIMB TO 2+ INCHES /+2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
CLIMO/. THUS GREATER RISK OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS POST FRONTAL AIRMASS DOESN/T
ARRIVE UNTIL FRIDAY.

FRIDAY THRU TUESDAY...

TREND TOWARD MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY ARRIVES
FRIDAY BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 60S. TOO DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME RANGE TO TIME INDIVIDUAL SHORT
WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW.  SO BEST WORDING WOULD BE MANY
HOURS OF DRY WEATHER THIS PERIOD BUT CYCLONIC FLOW AND COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN THE RISK OF A THUNDERSTORM DURING PEAK HEATING
HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT
FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.  IN
ADDITION...LOW CLOUDS MAY WORK ONTO THE ISLANDS AND CAPE COD...BUT
SHOULD NOT MAKE IT MUCH FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN THAT WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  PROBABLY VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE
INTO THE MID AFTERNOON...EXCEPT THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS
WHERE LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES WILL BE AT LEAST NEARBY.  A FEW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN DURING THE DAY.
HOWEVER...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
WORK INTO WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  A
FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.  IN ADDITION...SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH MAINLY BROKEN MVFR TO VFR CIGS
ELSEWHERE. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY
PUSH INTO EASTERN MA AND RHODE ISLAND THU EVENING...BUT SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE.  BULK OF ACTIVITY OVER AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TONIGHT.  SEA BREEZE SHOULD
COME TO AN END BETWEEN 21Z AND 23Z THIS EVENING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TONIGHT.  PATCHY FOG MAY
AFFECT THE TERMINAL FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS AND FOG.
MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.
VERY LOW RISK FOR AN AFTERNOON T-STORM SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA TODAY AND TONIGHT HAS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE IN PLACE. APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WILL INCREASE
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN WATERS. COULD SEE SOME GUSTY NEAR 25 KTS.
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL INCREASE SEAS BETWEEN 4-6 FEET. A
SCA MAY BE NEEDED ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
POSSIBLE. ROUGH SEAS ON SOUTH OCEAN WATERS WITH WIND WAVES OF 3 TO 6
FT POSSIBLE. VSBY REDUCED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS AND FOG.
MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE WITH
WIND SHIFT FROM SSW TO WSW. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY. HIGH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE. LEFTOVER SOUTHERLY SWELLS ON SOUTH OCEAN WATERS FROM THU
NIGHT LINGER FRI BUT SLOWLY DIMINISH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 7/29:

BOSTON97 ON 1933 & 1931

PROVIDENCE95 ON 2002 & 1949

BRADLEY96 ON 1933

WORCESTER94 ON 1892

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ017>024.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ005>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN
CLIMATE...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291814
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
213 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT
AS WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
AND PROBABLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL BE MAINLY DRY...CAN/T RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

2 PM UPDATE...

***HOT AFTERNOON ON TAP FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND***

HOT AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.  THE EXCEPTION IS
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE LOCALIZED SEA BREEZES
WERE KEEPING TEMPS COOLER.  MAY SEE PORTIONS OF EASTERN MA COAST
SHOOT UP SEVERAL DEGREES IN THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS...AS WINDS MAY
TURN MORE SOUTHERLY.

OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON.  WE CAN NOT RULE
OUT A VERY ISOLATED SPOT SHOWER OR TWO THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BUT
EVEN IF IT OCCURS IT WOULD BE EXTREMELY ISOLATED.  THEREFORE...WILL
NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...

DRY WEATHER WILL RESUME TONIGHT. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE ANOTHER
ROUND OF FOG ESP FOR THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS WHERE
DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHEST. OTHERWISE A MUGGY AND MILD NIGHT WILL BE
ON TAP WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE LOW 70S.

TOMORROW...

DESCENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ON THURSDAY PUSHING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. WARM...HUMID AIRMASS WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING FRONT. THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH OF THE REGION TO HAVE 70+
DEWPOINTS. THIS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY LOWER...IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S. HEAT INDICES WILL STILL BE HIGH...REACHING INTO THE
LOW TO MID 90S.

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE FRONT. IN FACT
MOST MODELS HAVE SPED THIS SYSTEM UP BY ABOUT 6+ HOURS. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AROUND 18Z AND
PUSH ACROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW STRONG TO A SEVERE
STORM IS POSSIBLE AS INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE HIGH WITH MARGINAL
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SHEAR VALUES LOOK TO BE ALONG OR BEHIND THE
FRONT...WHICH COULD LIMIT STRONG/SEVERE POTENTIAL. BIGGEST THREAT
WITH THESE STORMS APPEARS TO BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS LEADING TO NUISANCE
FLOODING AS PWAT VALUES ARE ABOUT 2+ INCHES. GUSTY WINDS/LOCALIZED
DOWNBURST ALSO CANNOT BE RULE OUT DUE TO THE INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PATTERN CHANGE TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS IS ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS
  AND THUNDERSTORMS THU NIGHT

* NOT AS WARM AND HUMID FRIDAY AND BEYOND

* MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS FRIDAY THRU TUESDAY

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

IMPRESSIVE AND ANOMALOUS VORTEX CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AS
SEEN ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL BECOME THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE THIS PERIOD...AS IT EVOLVES INTO A MUCH BROADER CIRCULATION
OVER JAMES AND HUDSON BAY THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. THIS RESULTS
IN A BROAD MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL SUPPRESS EXCESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
AIRMASS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA SOUTHWARD BEGINNING FRIDAY AND
LASTING THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN GOOD MULTI
MODEL AGREEMENT AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE LARGE SCALE FLOW THIS PERIOD...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE
AVERAGE.

DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. MODEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.
WHILE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IS MARGINAL IN THE PREFRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT...PWATS CLIMB TO 2+ INCHES /+2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
CLIMO/. THUS GREATER RISK OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS POST FRONTAL AIRMASS DOESN/T
ARRIVE UNTIL FRIDAY.

FRIDAY THRU TUESDAY...

TREND TOWARD MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY ARRIVES
FRIDAY BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 60S. TOO DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME RANGE TO TIME INDIVIDUAL SHORT
WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW.  SO BEST WORDING WOULD BE MANY
HOURS OF DRY WEATHER THIS PERIOD BUT CYCLONIC FLOW AND COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN THE RISK OF A THUNDERSTORM DURING PEAK HEATING
HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT
FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.  IN
ADDITION...LOW CLOUDS MAY WORK ONTO THE ISLANDS AND CAPE COD...BUT
SHOULD NOT MAKE IT MUCH FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN THAT WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  PROBABLY VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE
INTO THE MID AFTERNOON...EXCEPT THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE AND ISLANDS
WHERE LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES WILL BE AT LEAST NEARBY.  A FEW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN DURING THE DAY.
HOWEVER...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
WORK INTO WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  A
FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.  IN ADDITION...SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH MAINLY BROKEN MVFR TO VFR CIGS
ELSEWHERE. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY
PUSH INTO EASTERN MA AND RHODE ISLAND THU EVENING...BUT SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE.  BULK OF ACTIVITY OVER AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TONIGHT.  SEA BREEZE SHOULD
COME TO AN END BETWEEN 21Z AND 23Z THIS EVENING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TONIGHT.  PATCHY FOG MAY
AFFECT THE TERMINAL FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS AND FOG.
MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.
VERY LOW RISK FOR AN AFTERNOON T-STORM SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA TODAY AND TONIGHT HAS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE IN PLACE. APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WILL INCREASE
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN WATERS. COULD SEE SOME GUSTY NEAR 25 KTS.
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL INCREASE SEAS BETWEEN 4-6 FEET. A
SCA MAY BE NEEDED ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
POSSIBLE. ROUGH SEAS ON SOUTH OCEAN WATERS WITH WIND WAVES OF 3 TO 6
FT POSSIBLE. VSBY REDUCED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS AND FOG.
MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE WITH
WIND SHIFT FROM SSW TO WSW. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY. HIGH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE. LEFTOVER SOUTHERLY SWELLS ON SOUTH OCEAN WATERS FROM THU
NIGHT LINGER FRI BUT SLOWLY DIMINISH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 7/29:

BOSTON97 ON 1933 & 1931

PROVIDENCE95 ON 2002 & 1949

BRADLEY96 ON 1933

WORCESTER94 ON 1892

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ017>024.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ005>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN
CLIMATE...STAFF



000
FXUS61 KBOX 291408
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1007 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT
AS WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
AND PROBABLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL BE MAINLY DRY...CAN/T RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

***A HOT AFTERNOON ON TAP FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND***

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND +18C WILL RESULT IN A HOT
AFTERNOON.  HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S...EXCEPT ALONG PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE SEA BREEZES
WILL KEEP IT A BIT COOLER.  MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PROBABLY BECOME
PARTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOP.  A
VERY ISOLATED SPOT SHOWER OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT IF ANYTHING WERE TO DEVELOP IT WOULD BE EXTREMELY
ISOLATED.  THEREFORE...WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.

WE OPTED TO CANCEL THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE HARTFORD/SPRINGFIELD
METRO AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.  ENOUGH WESTERLY WINDS IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 60S.
SO DESPITE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 90S...HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY
FALL 4 OR 5 DEGREES SHORT OF CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...

DRY WEATHER WILL RESUME TONIGHT. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE ANOTHER
ROUND OF FOG ESP FOR THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS WHERE
DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHEST. OTHERWISE A MUGGY AND MILD NIGHT WILL BE
ON TAP WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE LOW 70S.

TOMORROW...

DESCENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ON THURSDAY PUSHING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. WARM...HUMID AIRMASS WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING FRONT. THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH OF THE REGION TO HAVE 70+
DEWPOINTS. THIS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY LOWER...IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S. HEAT INDICES WILL STILL BE HIGH...REACHING INTO THE
LOW TO MID 90S.

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE FRONT. IN FACT
MOST MODELS HAVE SPED THIS SYSTEM UP BY ABOUT 6+ HOURS. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AROUND 18Z AND
PUSH ACROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW STRONG TO A SEVERE
STORM IS POSSIBLE AS INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE HIGH WITH MARGINAL
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SHEAR VALUES LOOK TO BE ALONG OR BEHIND THE
FRONT...WHICH COULD LIMIT STRONG/SEVERE POTENTIAL. BIGGEST THREAT
WITH THESE STORMS APPEARS TO BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS LEADING TO NUISANCE
FLOODING AS PWAT VALUES ARE ABOUT 2+ INCHES. GUSTY WINDS/LOCALIZED
DOWNBURST ALSO CANNOT BE RULE OUT DUE TO THE INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PATTERN CHANGE TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS IS ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS
  AND THUNDERSTORMS THU NIGHT

* NOT AS WARM AND HUMID FRIDAY AND BEYOND

* MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS FRIDAY THRU TUESDAY

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

IMPRESSIVE AND ANOMALOUS VORTEX CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AS
SEEN ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL BECOME THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE THIS PERIOD...AS IT EVOLVES INTO A MUCH BROADER CIRCULATION
OVER JAMES AND HUDSON BAY THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. THIS RESULTS
IN A BROAD MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL SUPPRESS EXCESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
AIRMASS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA SOUTHWARD BEGINNING FRIDAY AND
LASTING THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN GOOD MULTI
MODEL AGREEMENT AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE LARGE SCALE FLOW THIS PERIOD...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE
AVERAGE.

DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. MODEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.
WHILE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IS MARGINAL IN THE PREFRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT...PWATS CLIMB TO 2+ INCHES /+2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
CLIMO/. THUS GREATER RISK OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS POST FRONTAL AIRMASS DOESN/T
ARRIVE UNTIL FRIDAY.

FRIDAY THRU TUESDAY...

TREND TOWARD MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY ARRIVES
FRIDAY BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 60S. TOO DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME RANGE TO TIME INDIVIDUAL SHORT
WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW.  SO BEST WORDING WOULD BE MANY
HOURS OF DRY WEATHER THIS PERIOD BUT CYCLONIC FLOW AND COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN THE RISK OF A THUNDERSTORM DURING PEAK HEATING
HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TODAY INTO TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS. MAY SEE
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT DROPPING CONDITIONS TO IFR.

THURSDAY...VFR TO START CONDITIONS DROPPING TO MVFR IN -SHRA/TSRA
BETWEEN 18-00Z. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  SEA BREEZE CONTINUES INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS AND FOG.
MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.
VERY LOW RISK FOR AN AFTERNOON T-STORM SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA TODAY AND TONIGHT HAS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE IN PLACE. APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WILL INCREASE
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN WATERS. COULD SEE SOME GUSTY NEAR 25 KTS.
PERSISENT SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL INCREASE SEAS BETWEEN 4-6 FEET. A
SCA MAY BE NEEDED ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
POSSIBLE. ROUGH SEAS ON SOUTH OCEAN WATERS WITH WIND WAVES OF 3 TO 6
FT POSSIBLE. VSBY REDUCED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS AND FOG.
MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE WITH
WIND SHIFT FROM SSW TO WSW. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY. HIGH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE. LEFTOVER SOUTHERLY SWELLS ON SOUTH OCEAN WATERS FROM THU
NIGHT LINGER FRI BUT SLOWLY DIMINISH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 7/29:

BOSTON97 ON 1933 & 1931

PROVIDENCE95 ON 2002 & 1949

BRADLEY96 ON 1933

WORCESTER94 ON 1892

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ017>024.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ005>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN
CLIMATE...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 291106
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
706 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT
AS WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
AND PROBABLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL BE MAINLY DRY...CAN/T RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

*** HEAT ADVISORY HARTFORD/SPRINGFIELD METRO REGIONS TODAY ***

7AM UPDATE...

ONLY CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO DISCONTINUE THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THE ISLANDS AS VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED. OFF TO A
VERY WARM START ALREADY WITH BOSTON AT 76...WORCESTER AND
PROVIDENCE 73. AS MENTIONED BELOW NEAR RECORD HIGHS TODAY WITH BDL
MOST VUNERABLE OF TYING OR BREAKING THE RECORD. EARLIER DISCUSSION
BELOW.

====================================================================

TODAY...

MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CREST OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE MUGGY AIRMASS TO REMAIN IN PLACE. 850MB TEMPS WARM TO 18-20C
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THEN YESTERDAY.
THEREFORE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THEN YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
WITH UPPER 90S ACROSS THE CT VALLEY. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE MID
60S AND WITH LIGHT WINDS. THIS HUMIDITY COMBINED WITH NEAR RECORD
TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
HOWEVER ACROSS THE CT VALLEY REGION...ESP IN THE
HARTFORD/SPRINGFIELD METRO REGIONS HEAT INDICES WILL REACH BETWEEN
98 AND 101. THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS REGION.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT THE DAY SHIFT MAY EXPAND IF TEMPS AND/OR
DEWPOINTS INCREASE MORE THAN FORECASTED.

ASIDE FROM THE HEAT...FORECAST SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A SPOT SHOWER TODAY IF LOCATIONS REACH THEIR
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER
BECAUSE IT WILL BE A ROGUE SHOWER HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...

DRY WEATHER WILL RESUME TONIGHT. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE ANOTHER
ROUND OF FOG ESP FOR THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS WHERE
DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHEST. OTHERWISE A MUGGY AND MILD NIGHT WILL BE
ON TAP WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE LOW 70S.

TOMORROW...

DESCENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ON THURSDAY PUSHING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. WARM...HUMID AIRMASS WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING FRONT. THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH OF THE REGION TO HAVE 70+
DEWPOINTS. THIS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY LOWER...IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S. HEAT INDICES WILL STILL BE HIGH...REACHING INTO THE
LOW TO MID 90S.

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE FRONT. IN FACT
MOST MODELS HAVE SPED THIS SYSTEM UP BY ABOUT 6+ HOURS. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AROUND 18Z AND
PUSH ACROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW STRONG TO A SEVERE
STORM IS POSSIBLE AS INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE HIGH WITH MARGINAL
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SHEAR VALUES LOOK TO BE ALONG OR BEHIND THE
FRONT...WHICH COULD LIMIT STRONG/SEVERE POTENTIAL. BIGGEST THREAT
WITH THESE STORMS APPEARS TO BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS LEADING TO NUISANCE
FLOODING AS PWAT VALUES ARE ABOUT 2+ INCHES. GUSTY WINDS/LOCALIZED
DOWNBURST ALSO CANNOT BE RULE OUT DUE TO THE INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PATTERN CHANGE TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS IS ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS
  AND THUNDERSTORMS THU NIGHT

* NOT AS WARM AND HUMID FRIDAY AND BEYOND

* MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS FRIDAY THRU TUESDAY

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

IMPRESSIVE AND ANOMALOUS VORTEX CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AS
SEEN ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL BECOME THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE THIS PERIOD...AS IT EVOLVES INTO A MUCH BROADER CIRCULATION
OVER JAMES AND HUDSON BAY THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. THIS RESULTS
IN A BROAD MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL SUPPRESS EXCESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
AIRMASS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA SOUTHWARD BEGINNING FRIDAY AND
LASTING THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN GOOD MULTI
MODEL AGREEMENT AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE LARGE SCALE FLOW THIS PERIOD...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE
AVERAGE.

DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. MODEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.
WHILE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IS MARGINAL IN THE PREFRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT...PWATS CLIMB TO 2+ INCHES /+2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
CLIMO/. THUS GREATER RISK OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS POST FRONTAL AIRMASS DOESN/T
ARRIVE UNTIL FRIDAY.

FRIDAY THRU TUESDAY...

TREND TOWARD MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY ARRIVES
FRIDAY BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 60S. TOO DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME RANGE TO TIME INDIVIDUAL SHORT
WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW.  SO BEST WORDING WOULD BE MANY
HOURS OF DRY WEATHER THIS PERIOD BUT CYCLONIC FLOW AND COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN THE RISK OF A THUNDERSTORM DURING PEAK HEATING
HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

7 AM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 06Z AND 09Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

=================================================================

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR FOR MANY SITES...HOWEVER
ANTICIPATE PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DROPPED SOME SITES DOWN TO IFR OR
EVEN LIFR. BEST LOCATIONS IS ACROSS THE CAPE...ISLANDS AND SOUTH
COAST WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 70S.

TODAY INTO TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS. MAY SEE
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT DROPPING CONDITIONS TO IFR.

THURSDAY...VFR TO START CONDITIONS DROPPING TO MVFR IN -SHRA/TSRA
BETWEEN 18-00Z. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS BETWEEN
14-15Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS AND FOG.
MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.
VERY LOW RISK FOR AN AFTERNOON T-STORM SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA TODAY AND TONIGHT HAS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE IN PLACE. APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WILL INCREASE
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN WATERS. COULD SEE SOME GUSTY NEAR 25 KTS.
PERSISENT SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL INCREASE SEAS BETWEEN 4-6 FEET. A
SCA MAY BE NEEDED ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
POSSIBLE. ROUGH SEAS ON SOUTH OCEAN WATERS WITH WIND WAVES OF 3 TO 6
FT POSSIBLE. VSBY REDUCED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS AND FOG.
MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE WITH
WIND SHIFT FROM SSW TO WSW. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY. HIGH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE. LEFTOVER SOUTHERLY SWELLS ON SOUTH OCEAN WATERS FROM THU
NIGHT LINGER FRI BUT SLOWLY DIMINISH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 7/29:

BOSTON97 ON 1933 & 1931

PROVIDENCE95 ON 2002 & 1949

BRADLEY96 ON 1933

WORCESTER94 ON 1892

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ002.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MAZ017>024.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MAZ011.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR RIZ005>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 291106
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
706 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT
AS WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
AND PROBABLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL BE MAINLY DRY...CAN/T RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...

*** HEAT ADVISORY HARTFORD/SPRINGFIELD METRO REGIONS TODAY ***

7AM UPDATE...

ONLY CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO DISCONTINUE THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THE ISLANDS AS VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED. OFF TO A
VERY WARM START ALREADY WITH BOSTON AT 76...WORCESTER AND
PROVIDENCE 73. AS MENTIONED BELOW NEAR RECORD HIGHS TODAY WITH BDL
MOST VUNERABLE OF TYING OR BREAKING THE RECORD. EARLIER DISCUSSION
BELOW.

====================================================================

TODAY...

MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CREST OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE MUGGY AIRMASS TO REMAIN IN PLACE. 850MB TEMPS WARM TO 18-20C
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THEN YESTERDAY.
THEREFORE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THEN YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
WITH UPPER 90S ACROSS THE CT VALLEY. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE MID
60S AND WITH LIGHT WINDS. THIS HUMIDITY COMBINED WITH NEAR RECORD
TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
HOWEVER ACROSS THE CT VALLEY REGION...ESP IN THE
HARTFORD/SPRINGFIELD METRO REGIONS HEAT INDICES WILL REACH BETWEEN
98 AND 101. THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS REGION.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT THE DAY SHIFT MAY EXPAND IF TEMPS AND/OR
DEWPOINTS INCREASE MORE THAN FORECASTED.

ASIDE FROM THE HEAT...FORECAST SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A SPOT SHOWER TODAY IF LOCATIONS REACH THEIR
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER
BECAUSE IT WILL BE A ROGUE SHOWER HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...

DRY WEATHER WILL RESUME TONIGHT. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE ANOTHER
ROUND OF FOG ESP FOR THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS WHERE
DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHEST. OTHERWISE A MUGGY AND MILD NIGHT WILL BE
ON TAP WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE LOW 70S.

TOMORROW...

DESCENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ON THURSDAY PUSHING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. WARM...HUMID AIRMASS WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING FRONT. THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH OF THE REGION TO HAVE 70+
DEWPOINTS. THIS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY LOWER...IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S. HEAT INDICES WILL STILL BE HIGH...REACHING INTO THE
LOW TO MID 90S.

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE FRONT. IN FACT
MOST MODELS HAVE SPED THIS SYSTEM UP BY ABOUT 6+ HOURS. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AROUND 18Z AND
PUSH ACROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW STRONG TO A SEVERE
STORM IS POSSIBLE AS INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE HIGH WITH MARGINAL
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SHEAR VALUES LOOK TO BE ALONG OR BEHIND THE
FRONT...WHICH COULD LIMIT STRONG/SEVERE POTENTIAL. BIGGEST THREAT
WITH THESE STORMS APPEARS TO BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS LEADING TO NUISANCE
FLOODING AS PWAT VALUES ARE ABOUT 2+ INCHES. GUSTY WINDS/LOCALIZED
DOWNBURST ALSO CANNOT BE RULE OUT DUE TO THE INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PATTERN CHANGE TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS IS ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS
  AND THUNDERSTORMS THU NIGHT

* NOT AS WARM AND HUMID FRIDAY AND BEYOND

* MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS FRIDAY THRU TUESDAY

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

IMPRESSIVE AND ANOMALOUS VORTEX CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AS
SEEN ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL BECOME THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE THIS PERIOD...AS IT EVOLVES INTO A MUCH BROADER CIRCULATION
OVER JAMES AND HUDSON BAY THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. THIS RESULTS
IN A BROAD MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL SUPPRESS EXCESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
AIRMASS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA SOUTHWARD BEGINNING FRIDAY AND
LASTING THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN GOOD MULTI
MODEL AGREEMENT AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE LARGE SCALE FLOW THIS PERIOD...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE
AVERAGE.

DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. MODEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.
WHILE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IS MARGINAL IN THE PREFRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT...PWATS CLIMB TO 2+ INCHES /+2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
CLIMO/. THUS GREATER RISK OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS POST FRONTAL AIRMASS DOESN/T
ARRIVE UNTIL FRIDAY.

FRIDAY THRU TUESDAY...

TREND TOWARD MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY ARRIVES
FRIDAY BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 60S. TOO DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME RANGE TO TIME INDIVIDUAL SHORT
WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW.  SO BEST WORDING WOULD BE MANY
HOURS OF DRY WEATHER THIS PERIOD BUT CYCLONIC FLOW AND COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN THE RISK OF A THUNDERSTORM DURING PEAK HEATING
HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

7 AM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 06Z AND 09Z TAFS. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

=================================================================

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR FOR MANY SITES...HOWEVER
ANTICIPATE PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DROPPED SOME SITES DOWN TO IFR OR
EVEN LIFR. BEST LOCATIONS IS ACROSS THE CAPE...ISLANDS AND SOUTH
COAST WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 70S.

TODAY INTO TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS. MAY SEE
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT DROPPING CONDITIONS TO IFR.

THURSDAY...VFR TO START CONDITIONS DROPPING TO MVFR IN -SHRA/TSRA
BETWEEN 18-00Z. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS BETWEEN
14-15Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS AND FOG.
MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.
VERY LOW RISK FOR AN AFTERNOON T-STORM SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA TODAY AND TONIGHT HAS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE IN PLACE. APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WILL INCREASE
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN WATERS. COULD SEE SOME GUSTY NEAR 25 KTS.
PERSISENT SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL INCREASE SEAS BETWEEN 4-6 FEET. A
SCA MAY BE NEEDED ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
POSSIBLE. ROUGH SEAS ON SOUTH OCEAN WATERS WITH WIND WAVES OF 3 TO 6
FT POSSIBLE. VSBY REDUCED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS AND FOG.
MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE WITH
WIND SHIFT FROM SSW TO WSW. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY. HIGH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE. LEFTOVER SOUTHERLY SWELLS ON SOUTH OCEAN WATERS FROM THU
NIGHT LINGER FRI BUT SLOWLY DIMINISH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 7/29:

BOSTON97 ON 1933 & 1931

PROVIDENCE95 ON 2002 & 1949

BRADLEY96 ON 1933

WORCESTER94 ON 1892

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ002.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MAZ017>024.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MAZ011.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR RIZ005>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290813
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
413 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT
AS WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
AND PROBABLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE
DRY...CAN/T RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM EACH
DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

*** HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE HARTFORD/SPRINGFIELD METRO REGIONS FOR
  TODAY ***

4 AM UPDATE...

A MILD NIGHT CONTINUES AS DEWPOINTS HAVE REACHED IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S WITH TEMPS JUST A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER. THIS LOW
TEMPS/DEWPOINT SPREAD HAS ALLOWED FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS SE MASS/RI
AND THE ISLANDS. EXPECT FOG TO SLOWLY INCREASE ESP IN REGIONS THAT
RECEIVED RAIN YESTERDAY AND ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. HAVE ISSUED A
A DENSE FOG ADV FOR THE MASS ISLANDS AS VSBYS ARE BELOW 1/4SM.
ALSO NOTICED IN WEBCAMS THAT WOODS HOLE IS LOCALLY DENSE AS WELL.
DRIVERS ARE URGED TO USE CAUTION THIS MORNING.

TODAY...

MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CREST OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE MUGGY AIRMASS TO REMAIN IN PLACE. 850MB TEMPS WARM TO 18-20C
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THEN YESTERDAY.
THEREFORE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THEN YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
WITH UPPER 90S ACROSS THE CT VALLEY. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE MID
60S AND WITH LIGHT WINDS. THIS HUMIDITY COMBINED WITH NEAR RECORD
TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
HOWEVER ACROSS THE CT VALLEY REGION...ESP IN THE
HARTFORD/SPRINGFIELD METRO REGIONS HEAT INDICES WILL REACH BETWEEN
98 AND 101. THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS REGION.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT THE DAY SHIFT MAY EXPAND IF TEMPS AND/OR
DEWPOINTS INCREASE MORE THAN FORECASTED.

ASIDE FROM THE HEAT...FORECAST SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A SPOT SHOWER TODAY IF LOCATIONS REACH THEIR
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER
BECAUSE IT WILL BE A ROGUE SHOWER HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...

DRY WEATHER WILL RESUME TONIGHT. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE ANOTHER
ROUND OF FOG ESP FOR THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS WHERE
DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHEST. OTHERWISE A MUGGY AND MILD NIGHT WILL BE
ON TAP WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE LOW 70S.

TOMORROW...

DESCENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ON THURSDAY PUSHING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. WARM...HUMID AIRMASS WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING FRONT. THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH OF THE REGION TO HAVE 70+
DEWPOINTS. THIS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY LOWER...IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S. HEAT INDICES WILL STILL BE HIGH...REACHING INTO THE
LOW TO MID 90S.

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE FRONT. IN FACT
MOST MODELS HAVE SPED THIS SYSTEM UP BY ABOUT 6+ HOURS. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AROUND 18Z AND
PUSH ACROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW STRONG TO A SEVERE
STORM IS POSSIBLE AS INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE HIGH WITH MARGINAL
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SHEAR VALUES LOOK TO BE ALONG OR BEHIND THE
FRONT...WHICH COULD LIMIT STRONG/SEVERE POTENTIAL. BIGGEST THREAT
WITH THESE STORMS APPEARS TO BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS LEADING TO NUISANCE
FLOODING AS PWAT VALUES ARE ABOUT 2+ INCHES. GUSTY WINDS/LOCALIZED
DOWNBURST ALSO CANNOT BE RULE OUT DUE TO THE INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PATTERN CHANGE TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS IS ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS
  AND THUNDERSTORMS THU NIGHT

* NOT AS WARM AND HUMID FRIDAY AND BEYOND

* MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS FRIDAY THRU TUESDAY

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

IMPRESSIVE AND ANOMALOUS VORTEX CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AS
SEEN ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL BECOME THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE THIS PERIOD...AS IT EVOLVES INTO A MUCH BROADER CIRCULATION
OVER JAMES AND HUDSON BAY THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. THIS RESULTS
IN A BROAD MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL SUPPRESS EXCESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
AIRMASS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA SOUTHWARD BEGINNING FRIDAY AND
LASTING THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN GOOD MULTI
MODEL AGREEMENT AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE LARGE SCALE FLOW THIS PERIOD...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE
AVERAGE.

DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. MODEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.
WHILE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IS MARGINAL IN THE PREFRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT...PWATS CLIMB TO 2+ INCHES /+2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
CLIMO/. THUS GREATER RISK OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS POST FRONTAL AIRMASS DOESN/T
ARRIVE UNTIL FRIDAY.

FRIDAY THRU TUESDAY...

TREND TOWARD MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY ARRIVES
FRIDAY BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 60S. TOO DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME RANGE TO TIME INDIVIDUAL SHORT
WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW.  SO BEST WORDING WOULD BE MANY
HOURS OF DRY WEATHER THIS PERIOD BUT CYCLONIC FLOW AND COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN THE RISK OF A THUNDERSTORM DURING PEAK HEATING
HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR FOR MANY SITES...HOWEVER
ANTICIPATE PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DROPPED SOME SITES DOWN TO IFR OR
EVEN LIFR. BEST LOCATIONS IS ACROSS THE CAPE...ISLANDS AND SOUTH
COAST WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 70S.

TODAY INTO TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS. MAY SEE
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT DROPPING CONDITIONS TO IFR.

THURSDAY...VFR TO START CONDITIONS DROPPING TO MVFR IN -SHRA/TSRA
BETWEEN 18-00Z. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS BETWEEN
14-15Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS AND FOG.
MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.
VERY LOW RISK FOR AN AFTERNOON T-STORM SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA TODAY AND TONIGHT HAS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE IN PLACE. APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WILL INCREASE
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN WATERS. COULD SEE SOME GUSTY NEAR 25 KTS.
PERSISENT SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL INCREASE SEAS BETWEEN 4-6 FEET. A
SCA MAY BE NEEDED ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
POSSIBLE. ROUGH SEAS ON SOUTH OCEAN WATERS WITH WIND WAVES OF 3 TO 6
FT POSSIBLE. VSBY REDUCED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS AND FOG.
MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE WITH
WIND SHIFT FROM SSW TO WSW. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY. HIGH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE. LEFTOVER SOUTHERLY SWELLS ON SOUTH OCEAN WATERS FROM THU
NIGHT LINGER FRI BUT SLOWLY DIMINISH.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS FOR 7/29:

BOSTON97 ON 1933 & 1931

PROVIDENCE95 ON 2002 & 1949

BRADLEY96 ON 1933

WORCESTER94 ON 1892

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ002.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MAZ017>024.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ023-024.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MAZ011.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR RIZ005>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KBOX 290813
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
413 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT
AS WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
AND PROBABLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE
DRY...CAN/T RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM EACH
DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

*** HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE HARTFORD/SPRINGFIELD METRO REGIONS FOR
  TODAY ***

4 AM UPDATE...

A MILD NIGHT CONTINUES AS DEWPOINTS HAVE REACHED IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S WITH TEMPS JUST A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER. THIS LOW
TEMPS/DEWPOINT SPREAD HAS ALLOWED FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS SE MASS/RI
AND THE ISLANDS. EXPECT FOG TO SLOWLY INCREASE ESP IN REGIONS THAT
RECEIVED RAIN YESTERDAY AND ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. HAVE ISSUED A
A DENSE FOG ADV FOR THE MASS ISLANDS AS VSBYS ARE BELOW 1/4SM.
ALSO NOTICED IN WEBCAMS THAT WOODS HOLE IS LOCALLY DENSE AS WELL.
DRIVERS ARE URGED TO USE CAUTION THIS MORNING.

TODAY...

MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CREST OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE MUGGY AIRMASS TO REMAIN IN PLACE. 850MB TEMPS WARM TO 18-20C
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THEN YESTERDAY.
THEREFORE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THEN YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
WITH UPPER 90S ACROSS THE CT VALLEY. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE MID
60S AND WITH LIGHT WINDS. THIS HUMIDITY COMBINED WITH NEAR RECORD
TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
HOWEVER ACROSS THE CT VALLEY REGION...ESP IN THE
HARTFORD/SPRINGFIELD METRO REGIONS HEAT INDICES WILL REACH BETWEEN
98 AND 101. THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS REGION.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT THE DAY SHIFT MAY EXPAND IF TEMPS AND/OR
DEWPOINTS INCREASE MORE THAN FORECASTED.

ASIDE FROM THE HEAT...FORECAST SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A SPOT SHOWER TODAY IF LOCATIONS REACH THEIR
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER
BECAUSE IT WILL BE A ROGUE SHOWER HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...

DRY WEATHER WILL RESUME TONIGHT. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE ANOTHER
ROUND OF FOG ESP FOR THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS WHERE
DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHEST. OTHERWISE A MUGGY AND MILD NIGHT WILL BE
ON TAP WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE LOW 70S.

TOMORROW...

DESCENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ON THURSDAY PUSHING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. WARM...HUMID AIRMASS WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING FRONT. THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH OF THE REGION TO HAVE 70+
DEWPOINTS. THIS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY LOWER...IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S. HEAT INDICES WILL STILL BE HIGH...REACHING INTO THE
LOW TO MID 90S.

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE FRONT. IN FACT
MOST MODELS HAVE SPED THIS SYSTEM UP BY ABOUT 6+ HOURS. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AROUND 18Z AND
PUSH ACROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW STRONG TO A SEVERE
STORM IS POSSIBLE AS INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE HIGH WITH MARGINAL
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SHEAR VALUES LOOK TO BE ALONG OR BEHIND THE
FRONT...WHICH COULD LIMIT STRONG/SEVERE POTENTIAL. BIGGEST THREAT
WITH THESE STORMS APPEARS TO BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS LEADING TO NUISANCE
FLOODING AS PWAT VALUES ARE ABOUT 2+ INCHES. GUSTY WINDS/LOCALIZED
DOWNBURST ALSO CANNOT BE RULE OUT DUE TO THE INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PATTERN CHANGE TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS IS ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS
  AND THUNDERSTORMS THU NIGHT

* NOT AS WARM AND HUMID FRIDAY AND BEYOND

* MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS FRIDAY THRU TUESDAY

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

IMPRESSIVE AND ANOMALOUS VORTEX CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AS
SEEN ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL BECOME THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE THIS PERIOD...AS IT EVOLVES INTO A MUCH BROADER CIRCULATION
OVER JAMES AND HUDSON BAY THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. THIS RESULTS
IN A BROAD MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL SUPPRESS EXCESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
AIRMASS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA SOUTHWARD BEGINNING FRIDAY AND
LASTING THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN GOOD MULTI
MODEL AGREEMENT AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE LARGE SCALE FLOW THIS PERIOD...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE
AVERAGE.

DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. MODEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.
WHILE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IS MARGINAL IN THE PREFRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT...PWATS CLIMB TO 2+ INCHES /+2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
CLIMO/. THUS GREATER RISK OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS POST FRONTAL AIRMASS DOESN/T
ARRIVE UNTIL FRIDAY.

FRIDAY THRU TUESDAY...

TREND TOWARD MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY ARRIVES
FRIDAY BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 60S. TOO DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME RANGE TO TIME INDIVIDUAL SHORT
WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW.  SO BEST WORDING WOULD BE MANY
HOURS OF DRY WEATHER THIS PERIOD BUT CYCLONIC FLOW AND COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN THE RISK OF A THUNDERSTORM DURING PEAK HEATING
HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR FOR MANY SITES...HOWEVER
ANTICIPATE PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DROPPED SOME SITES DOWN TO IFR OR
EVEN LIFR. BEST LOCATIONS IS ACROSS THE CAPE...ISLANDS AND SOUTH
COAST WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 70S.

TODAY INTO TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS. MAY SEE
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT DROPPING CONDITIONS TO IFR.

THURSDAY...VFR TO START CONDITIONS DROPPING TO MVFR IN -SHRA/TSRA
BETWEEN 18-00Z. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS BETWEEN
14-15Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS AND FOG.
MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.
VERY LOW RISK FOR AN AFTERNOON T-STORM SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA TODAY AND TONIGHT HAS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE IN PLACE. APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WILL INCREASE
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN WATERS. COULD SEE SOME GUSTY NEAR 25 KTS.
PERSISENT SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL INCREASE SEAS BETWEEN 4-6 FEET. A
SCA MAY BE NEEDED ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
POSSIBLE. ROUGH SEAS ON SOUTH OCEAN WATERS WITH WIND WAVES OF 3 TO 6
FT POSSIBLE. VSBY REDUCED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS AND FOG.
MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE WITH
WIND SHIFT FROM SSW TO WSW. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY. HIGH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE. LEFTOVER SOUTHERLY SWELLS ON SOUTH OCEAN WATERS FROM THU
NIGHT LINGER FRI BUT SLOWLY DIMINISH.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD HIGHS FOR 7/29:

BOSTON97 ON 1933 & 1931

PROVIDENCE95 ON 2002 & 1949

BRADLEY96 ON 1933

WORCESTER94 ON 1892

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ002.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MAZ017>024.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ023-024.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MAZ011.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR RIZ005>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...NOCERA/DUNTEN
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290748
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
348 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT
AS WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
AND PROBABLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE
DRY...CAN/T RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM EACH
DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

2 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED A DEGREE OR TWO BUT ANTICIPATE LOW TEMPS
TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT AS
DEWPOINTS HAVE REACHED IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AS WELL. THIS
LOW TEMPS/DEWPOINT SPREAD HAS ALLOWED FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS SE
MASS/RI AND THE ISLANDS. EXPECT FOG TO SLOWLY INCREASE ESP IN
REGIONS THAT RECEIVED RAIN TODAY AND ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. MAY
NEED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADV IF VSBYS DROP ANY LOWER...RIGHT NOW
MANY SITES ARE HOLDING AROUND 2-4SM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

***HOT BUT DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY***

UPPER LEVEL RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DESPITE SOME
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.  850 MB TEMPS AROUND +18C WILL YIELD HIGHS
BETWEEN 90 AND 95 ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN TEMPS A BIT COOLER ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST.
WHILE THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A VERY ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OPTED FOR A DRY
FORECAST.  EVEN IF ONE WERE TO HAPPEN IT PROBABLY WOULD BE VERY
BRIEF AND COVER SUCH A SMALL AREA OF OUR REGION...NOT WORTH A
MENTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* PATTERN CHANGE TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS IS ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS
  AND THUNDERSTORMS THU NIGHT

* NOT AS WARM AND HUMID FRIDAY AND BEYOND

* MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS FRIDAY THRU TUESDAY

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

IMPRESSIVE AND ANOMALOUS VORTEX CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AS
SEEN ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL BECOME THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE THIS PERIOD...AS IT EVOLVES INTO A MUCH BROADER CIRCULATION
OVER JAMES AND HUDSON BAY THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. THIS RESULTS
IN A BROAD MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL SUPPRESS EXCESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
AIRMASS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA SOUTHWARD BEGINNING FRIDAY AND
LASTING THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN GOOD MULTI
MODEL AGREEMENT AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE LARGE SCALE FLOW THIS PERIOD...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE
AVERAGE.

DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. MODEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.
WHILE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IS MARGINAL IN THE PREFRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT...PWATS CLIMB TO 2+ INCHES /+2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
CLIMO/. THUS GREATER RISK OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS POST FRONTAL AIRMASS DOESN/T
ARRIVE UNTIL FRIDAY.

FRIDAY THRU TUESDAY...

TREND TOWARD MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY ARRIVES
FRIDAY BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 60S. TOO DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME RANGE TO TIME INDIVIDUAL SHORT
WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW.  SO BEST WORDING WOULD BE MANY
HOURS OF DRY WEATHER THIS PERIOD BUT CYCLONIC FLOW AND COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN THE RISK OF A THUNDERSTORM DURING PEAK HEATING
HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR FOR MANY SITES...HOWEVER
ANTICIPATE PATCHY DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP DROPPING SOME SITES DOWN
TO IFR OR EVEN LIFR. BEST SPOT WILL BE ACROSS THE CAPE...ISLANDS
AND SOUTH COAST WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 70S.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CONDITIONS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT DROPPING CONDITIONS TO
IFR.

THURSDAY...VFR TO START CONDITIONS DROPPING TO MVFR IN -SHRA/TSRA
BETWEEN 18-00Z. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS BETWEEN
14-15Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS AND FOG.
MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.
VERY LOW RISK FOR AN AFTERNOON T-STORM SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE  STORMS ACROSS THE ADJACENT SOUTH COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 7 OR
8 PM.  LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED HAIL ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.  ALSO...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING NEAR
THE ISLANDS BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS
TURN WEST.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
POSSIBLE. ROUGH SEAS ON SOUTH OCEAN WATERS WITH WIND WAVES OF 3 TO 6
FT POSSIBLE. VSBY REDUCED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS AND FOG.
MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE WITH
WIND SHIFT FROM SSW TO WSW. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY. HIGH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE. LEFTOVER SOUTHERLY SWELLS ON SOUTH OCEAN WATERS FROM THU
NIGHT LINGER FRI BUT SLOWLY DIMINISH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ002.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MAZ017>024.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ023-024.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MAZ011.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR RIZ005>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA



000
FXUS61 KBOX 290748
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
348 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT
AS WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
AND PROBABLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE
DRY...CAN/T RULE OUT AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM EACH
DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

2 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED A DEGREE OR TWO BUT ANTICIPATE LOW TEMPS
TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT AS
DEWPOINTS HAVE REACHED IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AS WELL. THIS
LOW TEMPS/DEWPOINT SPREAD HAS ALLOWED FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS SE
MASS/RI AND THE ISLANDS. EXPECT FOG TO SLOWLY INCREASE ESP IN
REGIONS THAT RECEIVED RAIN TODAY AND ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. MAY
NEED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADV IF VSBYS DROP ANY LOWER...RIGHT NOW
MANY SITES ARE HOLDING AROUND 2-4SM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

***HOT BUT DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY***

UPPER LEVEL RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DESPITE SOME
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.  850 MB TEMPS AROUND +18C WILL YIELD HIGHS
BETWEEN 90 AND 95 ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN TEMPS A BIT COOLER ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST.
WHILE THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A VERY ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OPTED FOR A DRY
FORECAST.  EVEN IF ONE WERE TO HAPPEN IT PROBABLY WOULD BE VERY
BRIEF AND COVER SUCH A SMALL AREA OF OUR REGION...NOT WORTH A
MENTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* PATTERN CHANGE TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS IS ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS
  AND THUNDERSTORMS THU NIGHT

* NOT AS WARM AND HUMID FRIDAY AND BEYOND

* MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS FRIDAY THRU TUESDAY

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

IMPRESSIVE AND ANOMALOUS VORTEX CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AS
SEEN ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL BECOME THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE THIS PERIOD...AS IT EVOLVES INTO A MUCH BROADER CIRCULATION
OVER JAMES AND HUDSON BAY THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. THIS RESULTS
IN A BROAD MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL SUPPRESS EXCESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
AIRMASS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA SOUTHWARD BEGINNING FRIDAY AND
LASTING THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN GOOD MULTI
MODEL AGREEMENT AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE LARGE SCALE FLOW THIS PERIOD...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE
AVERAGE.

DAILY SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT...

NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. MODEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.
WHILE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IS MARGINAL IN THE PREFRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT...PWATS CLIMB TO 2+ INCHES /+2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
CLIMO/. THUS GREATER RISK OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS POST FRONTAL AIRMASS DOESN/T
ARRIVE UNTIL FRIDAY.

FRIDAY THRU TUESDAY...

TREND TOWARD MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY ARRIVES
FRIDAY BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 60S. TOO DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME RANGE TO TIME INDIVIDUAL SHORT
WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW.  SO BEST WORDING WOULD BE MANY
HOURS OF DRY WEATHER THIS PERIOD BUT CYCLONIC FLOW AND COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN THE RISK OF A THUNDERSTORM DURING PEAK HEATING
HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR FOR MANY SITES...HOWEVER
ANTICIPATE PATCHY DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP DROPPING SOME SITES DOWN
TO IFR OR EVEN LIFR. BEST SPOT WILL BE ACROSS THE CAPE...ISLANDS
AND SOUTH COAST WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 70S.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CONDITIONS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT DROPPING CONDITIONS TO
IFR.

THURSDAY...VFR TO START CONDITIONS DROPPING TO MVFR IN -SHRA/TSRA
BETWEEN 18-00Z. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS BETWEEN
14-15Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS AND FOG.
MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.
VERY LOW RISK FOR AN AFTERNOON T-STORM SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE  STORMS ACROSS THE ADJACENT SOUTH COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 7 OR
8 PM.  LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED HAIL ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.  ALSO...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING NEAR
THE ISLANDS BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS
TURN WEST.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
POSSIBLE. ROUGH SEAS ON SOUTH OCEAN WATERS WITH WIND WAVES OF 3 TO 6
FT POSSIBLE. VSBY REDUCED IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS AND FOG.
MODERATE TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE WITH
WIND SHIFT FROM SSW TO WSW. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY. HIGH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE. LEFTOVER SOUTHERLY SWELLS ON SOUTH OCEAN WATERS FROM THU
NIGHT LINGER FRI BUT SLOWLY DIMINISH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ002.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MAZ017>024.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ023-024.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MAZ011.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR RIZ005>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290531
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
131 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

2 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED A DEGREE OR TWO BUT ANTICIPATE LOW TEMPS
TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT AS
DEWPOINTS HAVE REACHED IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AS WELL. THIS
LOW TEMPS/DEWPOINT SPREAD HAS ALLOWED FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS SE
MASS/RI AND THE ISLANDS. EXPECT FOG TO SLOWLY INCREASE ESP IN
REGIONS THAT RECEIVED RAIN TODAY AND ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. MAY
NEED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADV IF VSBYS DROP ANY LOWER...RIGHT NOW
MANY SITES ARE HOLDING AROUND 2-4SM.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
***HOT BUT DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY***

UPPER LEVEL RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DESPITE SOME
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.  850 MB TEMPS AROUND +18C WILL YIELD HIGHS
BETWEEN 90 AND 95 ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN TEMPS A BIT COOLER ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST.
WHILE THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A VERY ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OPTED FOR A DRY
FORECAST.  EVEN IF ONE WERE TO HAPPEN IT PROBABLY WOULD BE VERY
BRIEF AND COVER SUCH A SMALL AREA OF OUR REGION...NOT WORTH A
MENTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AS H5 CUTOFF LOW SETS UP ACROSS HUDSON BAY/ONTARIO/W QUEBEC AND A
NEGATIVE NAO PATTERN IN PLACE...A FAST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN STREAM THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SHORT WAVES IN THIS
FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH TIMING OF
EACH INDIVIDUAL SYSTEM IS IN QUESTION BEYOND FRIDAY DUE TO THE FAST
FLOW. MAY START TO SEE THIS LONG WAVE PATTERN BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS TIMING THIS FAR OUT.

NOTED VERY GOOD CONTINUITY AND TIMING OF APPROACHING SYSTEM LATE
THIS WEEK AMONGST THE MEDIUM MODEL SUITE...THEN TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF SYSTEMS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN QUESTION.  SO...
WENT WITH A BLEND OF 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF OP MODEL RUNS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO AN OVERALL BLEND OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE INCLUDING GEFS/ECENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WHICH GAVE GOOD
CONSISTENCY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL CROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT. WILL SEE
SULTRY CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG WHICH MAY
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S THOUGH A BIT MILDER IN THE URBAN CENTERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
PRETTY VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES ALONG IN W-NW FLOW ALOFT.
CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS ARRIVING AFTER 18Z THU ACROSS THE E
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES THAN PUSHING INTO THE CT VALLEY LATE IN
THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE MOST ACTION WILL OCCUR THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS
FRONT MOVES SLOWLY BUT STEADILY ACROSS. WITH GOOD PUSH OF DRIER
AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT...NOTING PWATS INCREASE TO 1.9 TO 2.1 INCHES
DURING THE NIGHT WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS. ALSO
GOOD ELEVATED CONVECTION SIGNALS...WITH TQ VALUES IN THE LOW 20S
ALONG WITH K INDICES IN THE MID 30S. SPC HAS ALSO MENTIONED
MARGINALLY SEVERE CONDITIONS AS THE PRECIP MOVES INTO FAR WESTERN
AREAS LATE IN THE DAY. SOMETHING TO BE WATCHED.

HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
ALSO USED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

EXPECT FRONT TO CLEAR THE COAST FRI MORNING. ISOLD THUNDER MAY
LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING AS BEST INSTABILITY MOVES OFFSHORE.
SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS UNTIL AROUND
MIDDAY THEN SHOULD EXIT. NOTING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE HUMID
CONDITIONS AS DEWPTS FALL BACK TO THE 50S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM THOUGH...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER-
MID 80S.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND COMFORTABLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND W MA INTO N CT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 60S...THOUGH MAY
LINGER AROUND 70 ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
NOTING ANOTHER DIP IN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES IN THE UPPER FLOW. OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVING
TROUBLE HANDLING THIS FEATURE...THOUGH DOES LOOK LIKE THERE MAY BE
SOME ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AS WEAK FRONT CROSSES SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN MORNING. LOOKS LIKE BEST SHOT FOR NOW WILL BE ACROSS THE
CT VALLEY AND ALONG E COAST...THOUGH COULD SEE ISOLD ACTIVITY
ANYWHERE. SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...
THE H5 CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON/JAMES BAYS HINTS IN SHIFTING SLOWLY
E ACROSS N QUEBEC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT STILL SEEING LONG
WAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BOTH MON AND
TUE...THOUGH SOME QUESTION ON EXACT TIMING THIS FAR OUT. WILL
REMAIN WARM AND HUMID DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR FOR MANY SITES...HOWEVER
ANTICIPATE PATCHY DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP DROPPING SOME SITES DOWN
TO IFR OR EVEN LIFR. BEST SPOT WILL BE ACROSS THE CAPE...ISLANDS
AND SOUTH COAST WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 70S.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CONDITIONS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT DROPPING CONDITIONS TO
IFR.

THURSDAY...VFR TO START CONDITIONS DROPPING TO MVFR IN -SHRA/TSRA
BETWEEN 18-00Z. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS BETWEEN
14-15Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI/SE MA AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS N CENTRAL AND W MA INTO N CENTRAL
CT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. LINGERING
SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG ALONG S COAST...
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY THROUGH SAT.
ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS.
LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE  STORMS ACROSS THE ADJACENT SOUTH COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 7 OR
8 PM.  LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED HAIL ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.  ALSO...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING NEAR
THE ISLANDS BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS
TURN WEST.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...EXPECT LIGHT SW WINDS WED NIGHT
INTO THU...THEN PICKING UP DURING THU AFTERNOON. MAY SEE GUSTS TO
20 KT. SEAS 4 FT OR LESS. PATCHY FOG WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING
LOWERING VSBYS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT MAINLY OVER THE OPEN
WATERS. SEAS REACHING AROUND 5 FT. PATCHY FOG ALONG WITH SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS LOWERING VSBYS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT MAY ENTER THE WATERS LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT. SEAS OVER
THE OPEN WATERS UP TO AROUND 5 FT DURING FRI...SUBSIDING FRI
NIGHT BUT MAY BUILD AGAIN SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MAZ017>024.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR RIZ005>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DUNTEN/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290531
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
131 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

2 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED A DEGREE OR TWO BUT ANTICIPATE LOW TEMPS
TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT AS
DEWPOINTS HAVE REACHED IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AS WELL. THIS
LOW TEMPS/DEWPOINT SPREAD HAS ALLOWED FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS SE
MASS/RI AND THE ISLANDS. EXPECT FOG TO SLOWLY INCREASE ESP IN
REGIONS THAT RECEIVED RAIN TODAY AND ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. MAY
NEED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADV IF VSBYS DROP ANY LOWER...RIGHT NOW
MANY SITES ARE HOLDING AROUND 2-4SM.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
***HOT BUT DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY***

UPPER LEVEL RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DESPITE SOME
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.  850 MB TEMPS AROUND +18C WILL YIELD HIGHS
BETWEEN 90 AND 95 ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN TEMPS A BIT COOLER ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST.
WHILE THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A VERY ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OPTED FOR A DRY
FORECAST.  EVEN IF ONE WERE TO HAPPEN IT PROBABLY WOULD BE VERY
BRIEF AND COVER SUCH A SMALL AREA OF OUR REGION...NOT WORTH A
MENTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AS H5 CUTOFF LOW SETS UP ACROSS HUDSON BAY/ONTARIO/W QUEBEC AND A
NEGATIVE NAO PATTERN IN PLACE...A FAST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN STREAM THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SHORT WAVES IN THIS
FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH TIMING OF
EACH INDIVIDUAL SYSTEM IS IN QUESTION BEYOND FRIDAY DUE TO THE FAST
FLOW. MAY START TO SEE THIS LONG WAVE PATTERN BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS TIMING THIS FAR OUT.

NOTED VERY GOOD CONTINUITY AND TIMING OF APPROACHING SYSTEM LATE
THIS WEEK AMONGST THE MEDIUM MODEL SUITE...THEN TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF SYSTEMS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN QUESTION.  SO...
WENT WITH A BLEND OF 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF OP MODEL RUNS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO AN OVERALL BLEND OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE INCLUDING GEFS/ECENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WHICH GAVE GOOD
CONSISTENCY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL CROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT. WILL SEE
SULTRY CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG WHICH MAY
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S THOUGH A BIT MILDER IN THE URBAN CENTERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
PRETTY VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES ALONG IN W-NW FLOW ALOFT.
CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS ARRIVING AFTER 18Z THU ACROSS THE E
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES THAN PUSHING INTO THE CT VALLEY LATE IN
THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE MOST ACTION WILL OCCUR THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS
FRONT MOVES SLOWLY BUT STEADILY ACROSS. WITH GOOD PUSH OF DRIER
AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT...NOTING PWATS INCREASE TO 1.9 TO 2.1 INCHES
DURING THE NIGHT WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS. ALSO
GOOD ELEVATED CONVECTION SIGNALS...WITH TQ VALUES IN THE LOW 20S
ALONG WITH K INDICES IN THE MID 30S. SPC HAS ALSO MENTIONED
MARGINALLY SEVERE CONDITIONS AS THE PRECIP MOVES INTO FAR WESTERN
AREAS LATE IN THE DAY. SOMETHING TO BE WATCHED.

HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
ALSO USED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

EXPECT FRONT TO CLEAR THE COAST FRI MORNING. ISOLD THUNDER MAY
LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING AS BEST INSTABILITY MOVES OFFSHORE.
SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS UNTIL AROUND
MIDDAY THEN SHOULD EXIT. NOTING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE HUMID
CONDITIONS AS DEWPTS FALL BACK TO THE 50S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM THOUGH...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER-
MID 80S.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND COMFORTABLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND W MA INTO N CT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 60S...THOUGH MAY
LINGER AROUND 70 ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
NOTING ANOTHER DIP IN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES IN THE UPPER FLOW. OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVING
TROUBLE HANDLING THIS FEATURE...THOUGH DOES LOOK LIKE THERE MAY BE
SOME ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AS WEAK FRONT CROSSES SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN MORNING. LOOKS LIKE BEST SHOT FOR NOW WILL BE ACROSS THE
CT VALLEY AND ALONG E COAST...THOUGH COULD SEE ISOLD ACTIVITY
ANYWHERE. SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...
THE H5 CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON/JAMES BAYS HINTS IN SHIFTING SLOWLY
E ACROSS N QUEBEC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT STILL SEEING LONG
WAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BOTH MON AND
TUE...THOUGH SOME QUESTION ON EXACT TIMING THIS FAR OUT. WILL
REMAIN WARM AND HUMID DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR FOR MANY SITES...HOWEVER
ANTICIPATE PATCHY DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP DROPPING SOME SITES DOWN
TO IFR OR EVEN LIFR. BEST SPOT WILL BE ACROSS THE CAPE...ISLANDS
AND SOUTH COAST WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 70S.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CONDITIONS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT DROPPING CONDITIONS TO
IFR.

THURSDAY...VFR TO START CONDITIONS DROPPING TO MVFR IN -SHRA/TSRA
BETWEEN 18-00Z. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS BETWEEN
14-15Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI/SE MA AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS N CENTRAL AND W MA INTO N CENTRAL
CT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. LINGERING
SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG ALONG S COAST...
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY THROUGH SAT.
ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS.
LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE  STORMS ACROSS THE ADJACENT SOUTH COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 7 OR
8 PM.  LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED HAIL ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.  ALSO...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING NEAR
THE ISLANDS BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS
TURN WEST.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...EXPECT LIGHT SW WINDS WED NIGHT
INTO THU...THEN PICKING UP DURING THU AFTERNOON. MAY SEE GUSTS TO
20 KT. SEAS 4 FT OR LESS. PATCHY FOG WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING
LOWERING VSBYS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT MAINLY OVER THE OPEN
WATERS. SEAS REACHING AROUND 5 FT. PATCHY FOG ALONG WITH SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS LOWERING VSBYS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT MAY ENTER THE WATERS LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT. SEAS OVER
THE OPEN WATERS UP TO AROUND 5 FT DURING FRI...SUBSIDING FRI
NIGHT BUT MAY BUILD AGAIN SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MAZ017>024.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR RIZ005>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DUNTEN/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290531
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
131 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

2 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED A DEGREE OR TWO BUT ANTICIPATE LOW TEMPS
TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT AS
DEWPOINTS HAVE REACHED IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AS WELL. THIS
LOW TEMPS/DEWPOINT SPREAD HAS ALLOWED FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS SE
MASS/RI AND THE ISLANDS. EXPECT FOG TO SLOWLY INCREASE ESP IN
REGIONS THAT RECEIVED RAIN TODAY AND ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. MAY
NEED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADV IF VSBYS DROP ANY LOWER...RIGHT NOW
MANY SITES ARE HOLDING AROUND 2-4SM.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
***HOT BUT DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY***

UPPER LEVEL RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DESPITE SOME
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.  850 MB TEMPS AROUND +18C WILL YIELD HIGHS
BETWEEN 90 AND 95 ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN TEMPS A BIT COOLER ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST.
WHILE THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A VERY ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OPTED FOR A DRY
FORECAST.  EVEN IF ONE WERE TO HAPPEN IT PROBABLY WOULD BE VERY
BRIEF AND COVER SUCH A SMALL AREA OF OUR REGION...NOT WORTH A
MENTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AS H5 CUTOFF LOW SETS UP ACROSS HUDSON BAY/ONTARIO/W QUEBEC AND A
NEGATIVE NAO PATTERN IN PLACE...A FAST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN STREAM THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SHORT WAVES IN THIS
FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH TIMING OF
EACH INDIVIDUAL SYSTEM IS IN QUESTION BEYOND FRIDAY DUE TO THE FAST
FLOW. MAY START TO SEE THIS LONG WAVE PATTERN BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS TIMING THIS FAR OUT.

NOTED VERY GOOD CONTINUITY AND TIMING OF APPROACHING SYSTEM LATE
THIS WEEK AMONGST THE MEDIUM MODEL SUITE...THEN TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF SYSTEMS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN QUESTION.  SO...
WENT WITH A BLEND OF 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF OP MODEL RUNS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO AN OVERALL BLEND OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE INCLUDING GEFS/ECENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WHICH GAVE GOOD
CONSISTENCY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL CROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT. WILL SEE
SULTRY CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG WHICH MAY
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S THOUGH A BIT MILDER IN THE URBAN CENTERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
PRETTY VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES ALONG IN W-NW FLOW ALOFT.
CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS ARRIVING AFTER 18Z THU ACROSS THE E
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES THAN PUSHING INTO THE CT VALLEY LATE IN
THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE MOST ACTION WILL OCCUR THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS
FRONT MOVES SLOWLY BUT STEADILY ACROSS. WITH GOOD PUSH OF DRIER
AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT...NOTING PWATS INCREASE TO 1.9 TO 2.1 INCHES
DURING THE NIGHT WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS. ALSO
GOOD ELEVATED CONVECTION SIGNALS...WITH TQ VALUES IN THE LOW 20S
ALONG WITH K INDICES IN THE MID 30S. SPC HAS ALSO MENTIONED
MARGINALLY SEVERE CONDITIONS AS THE PRECIP MOVES INTO FAR WESTERN
AREAS LATE IN THE DAY. SOMETHING TO BE WATCHED.

HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
ALSO USED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

EXPECT FRONT TO CLEAR THE COAST FRI MORNING. ISOLD THUNDER MAY
LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING AS BEST INSTABILITY MOVES OFFSHORE.
SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS UNTIL AROUND
MIDDAY THEN SHOULD EXIT. NOTING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE HUMID
CONDITIONS AS DEWPTS FALL BACK TO THE 50S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM THOUGH...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER-
MID 80S.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND COMFORTABLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND W MA INTO N CT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 60S...THOUGH MAY
LINGER AROUND 70 ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
NOTING ANOTHER DIP IN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES IN THE UPPER FLOW. OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVING
TROUBLE HANDLING THIS FEATURE...THOUGH DOES LOOK LIKE THERE MAY BE
SOME ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AS WEAK FRONT CROSSES SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN MORNING. LOOKS LIKE BEST SHOT FOR NOW WILL BE ACROSS THE
CT VALLEY AND ALONG E COAST...THOUGH COULD SEE ISOLD ACTIVITY
ANYWHERE. SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...
THE H5 CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON/JAMES BAYS HINTS IN SHIFTING SLOWLY
E ACROSS N QUEBEC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT STILL SEEING LONG
WAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BOTH MON AND
TUE...THOUGH SOME QUESTION ON EXACT TIMING THIS FAR OUT. WILL
REMAIN WARM AND HUMID DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR FOR MANY SITES...HOWEVER
ANTICIPATE PATCHY DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP DROPPING SOME SITES DOWN
TO IFR OR EVEN LIFR. BEST SPOT WILL BE ACROSS THE CAPE...ISLANDS
AND SOUTH COAST WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 70S.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CONDITIONS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT DROPPING CONDITIONS TO
IFR.

THURSDAY...VFR TO START CONDITIONS DROPPING TO MVFR IN -SHRA/TSRA
BETWEEN 18-00Z. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS BETWEEN
14-15Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI/SE MA AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS N CENTRAL AND W MA INTO N CENTRAL
CT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. LINGERING
SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG ALONG S COAST...
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY THROUGH SAT.
ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS.
LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE  STORMS ACROSS THE ADJACENT SOUTH COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 7 OR
8 PM.  LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED HAIL ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.  ALSO...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING NEAR
THE ISLANDS BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS
TURN WEST.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...EXPECT LIGHT SW WINDS WED NIGHT
INTO THU...THEN PICKING UP DURING THU AFTERNOON. MAY SEE GUSTS TO
20 KT. SEAS 4 FT OR LESS. PATCHY FOG WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING
LOWERING VSBYS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT MAINLY OVER THE OPEN
WATERS. SEAS REACHING AROUND 5 FT. PATCHY FOG ALONG WITH SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS LOWERING VSBYS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT MAY ENTER THE WATERS LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT. SEAS OVER
THE OPEN WATERS UP TO AROUND 5 FT DURING FRI...SUBSIDING FRI
NIGHT BUT MAY BUILD AGAIN SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MAZ017>024.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR RIZ005>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DUNTEN/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290531
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
131 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

2 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED A DEGREE OR TWO BUT ANTICIPATE LOW TEMPS
TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT AS
DEWPOINTS HAVE REACHED IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AS WELL. THIS
LOW TEMPS/DEWPOINT SPREAD HAS ALLOWED FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS SE
MASS/RI AND THE ISLANDS. EXPECT FOG TO SLOWLY INCREASE ESP IN
REGIONS THAT RECEIVED RAIN TODAY AND ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. MAY
NEED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADV IF VSBYS DROP ANY LOWER...RIGHT NOW
MANY SITES ARE HOLDING AROUND 2-4SM.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
***HOT BUT DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY***

UPPER LEVEL RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DESPITE SOME
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.  850 MB TEMPS AROUND +18C WILL YIELD HIGHS
BETWEEN 90 AND 95 ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN TEMPS A BIT COOLER ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST.
WHILE THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A VERY ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OPTED FOR A DRY
FORECAST.  EVEN IF ONE WERE TO HAPPEN IT PROBABLY WOULD BE VERY
BRIEF AND COVER SUCH A SMALL AREA OF OUR REGION...NOT WORTH A
MENTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AS H5 CUTOFF LOW SETS UP ACROSS HUDSON BAY/ONTARIO/W QUEBEC AND A
NEGATIVE NAO PATTERN IN PLACE...A FAST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN STREAM THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SHORT WAVES IN THIS
FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH TIMING OF
EACH INDIVIDUAL SYSTEM IS IN QUESTION BEYOND FRIDAY DUE TO THE FAST
FLOW. MAY START TO SEE THIS LONG WAVE PATTERN BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS TIMING THIS FAR OUT.

NOTED VERY GOOD CONTINUITY AND TIMING OF APPROACHING SYSTEM LATE
THIS WEEK AMONGST THE MEDIUM MODEL SUITE...THEN TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF SYSTEMS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN QUESTION.  SO...
WENT WITH A BLEND OF 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF OP MODEL RUNS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO AN OVERALL BLEND OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE INCLUDING GEFS/ECENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WHICH GAVE GOOD
CONSISTENCY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL CROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT. WILL SEE
SULTRY CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG WHICH MAY
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S THOUGH A BIT MILDER IN THE URBAN CENTERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
PRETTY VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES ALONG IN W-NW FLOW ALOFT.
CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS ARRIVING AFTER 18Z THU ACROSS THE E
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES THAN PUSHING INTO THE CT VALLEY LATE IN
THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE MOST ACTION WILL OCCUR THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS
FRONT MOVES SLOWLY BUT STEADILY ACROSS. WITH GOOD PUSH OF DRIER
AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT...NOTING PWATS INCREASE TO 1.9 TO 2.1 INCHES
DURING THE NIGHT WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS. ALSO
GOOD ELEVATED CONVECTION SIGNALS...WITH TQ VALUES IN THE LOW 20S
ALONG WITH K INDICES IN THE MID 30S. SPC HAS ALSO MENTIONED
MARGINALLY SEVERE CONDITIONS AS THE PRECIP MOVES INTO FAR WESTERN
AREAS LATE IN THE DAY. SOMETHING TO BE WATCHED.

HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
ALSO USED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

EXPECT FRONT TO CLEAR THE COAST FRI MORNING. ISOLD THUNDER MAY
LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING AS BEST INSTABILITY MOVES OFFSHORE.
SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS UNTIL AROUND
MIDDAY THEN SHOULD EXIT. NOTING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE HUMID
CONDITIONS AS DEWPTS FALL BACK TO THE 50S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM THOUGH...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER-
MID 80S.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND COMFORTABLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND W MA INTO N CT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 60S...THOUGH MAY
LINGER AROUND 70 ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
NOTING ANOTHER DIP IN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES IN THE UPPER FLOW. OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVING
TROUBLE HANDLING THIS FEATURE...THOUGH DOES LOOK LIKE THERE MAY BE
SOME ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AS WEAK FRONT CROSSES SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN MORNING. LOOKS LIKE BEST SHOT FOR NOW WILL BE ACROSS THE
CT VALLEY AND ALONG E COAST...THOUGH COULD SEE ISOLD ACTIVITY
ANYWHERE. SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...
THE H5 CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON/JAMES BAYS HINTS IN SHIFTING SLOWLY
E ACROSS N QUEBEC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT STILL SEEING LONG
WAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BOTH MON AND
TUE...THOUGH SOME QUESTION ON EXACT TIMING THIS FAR OUT. WILL
REMAIN WARM AND HUMID DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR FOR MANY SITES...HOWEVER
ANTICIPATE PATCHY DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP DROPPING SOME SITES DOWN
TO IFR OR EVEN LIFR. BEST SPOT WILL BE ACROSS THE CAPE...ISLANDS
AND SOUTH COAST WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 70S.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CONDITIONS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT DROPPING CONDITIONS TO
IFR.

THURSDAY...VFR TO START CONDITIONS DROPPING TO MVFR IN -SHRA/TSRA
BETWEEN 18-00Z. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS BETWEEN
14-15Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI/SE MA AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS N CENTRAL AND W MA INTO N CENTRAL
CT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. LINGERING
SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG ALONG S COAST...
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY THROUGH SAT.
ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS.
LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE  STORMS ACROSS THE ADJACENT SOUTH COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 7 OR
8 PM.  LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED HAIL ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.  ALSO...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING NEAR
THE ISLANDS BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS
TURN WEST.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...EXPECT LIGHT SW WINDS WED NIGHT
INTO THU...THEN PICKING UP DURING THU AFTERNOON. MAY SEE GUSTS TO
20 KT. SEAS 4 FT OR LESS. PATCHY FOG WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING
LOWERING VSBYS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT MAINLY OVER THE OPEN
WATERS. SEAS REACHING AROUND 5 FT. PATCHY FOG ALONG WITH SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS LOWERING VSBYS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT MAY ENTER THE WATERS LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT. SEAS OVER
THE OPEN WATERS UP TO AROUND 5 FT DURING FRI...SUBSIDING FRI
NIGHT BUT MAY BUILD AGAIN SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MAZ017>024.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR RIZ005>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DUNTEN/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 290531
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
131 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

2 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED A DEGREE OR TWO BUT ANTICIPATE LOW TEMPS
TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT AS
DEWPOINTS HAVE REACHED IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AS WELL. THIS
LOW TEMPS/DEWPOINT SPREAD HAS ALLOWED FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS SE
MASS/RI AND THE ISLANDS. EXPECT FOG TO SLOWLY INCREASE ESP IN
REGIONS THAT RECEIVED RAIN TODAY AND ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. MAY
NEED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADV IF VSBYS DROP ANY LOWER...RIGHT NOW
MANY SITES ARE HOLDING AROUND 2-4SM.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
***HOT BUT DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY***

UPPER LEVEL RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DESPITE SOME
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.  850 MB TEMPS AROUND +18C WILL YIELD HIGHS
BETWEEN 90 AND 95 ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN TEMPS A BIT COOLER ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST.
WHILE THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A VERY ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OPTED FOR A DRY
FORECAST.  EVEN IF ONE WERE TO HAPPEN IT PROBABLY WOULD BE VERY
BRIEF AND COVER SUCH A SMALL AREA OF OUR REGION...NOT WORTH A
MENTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AS H5 CUTOFF LOW SETS UP ACROSS HUDSON BAY/ONTARIO/W QUEBEC AND A
NEGATIVE NAO PATTERN IN PLACE...A FAST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN STREAM THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SHORT WAVES IN THIS
FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH TIMING OF
EACH INDIVIDUAL SYSTEM IS IN QUESTION BEYOND FRIDAY DUE TO THE FAST
FLOW. MAY START TO SEE THIS LONG WAVE PATTERN BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS TIMING THIS FAR OUT.

NOTED VERY GOOD CONTINUITY AND TIMING OF APPROACHING SYSTEM LATE
THIS WEEK AMONGST THE MEDIUM MODEL SUITE...THEN TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF SYSTEMS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN QUESTION.  SO...
WENT WITH A BLEND OF 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF OP MODEL RUNS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO AN OVERALL BLEND OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE INCLUDING GEFS/ECENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WHICH GAVE GOOD
CONSISTENCY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL CROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT. WILL SEE
SULTRY CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG WHICH MAY
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S THOUGH A BIT MILDER IN THE URBAN CENTERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
PRETTY VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES ALONG IN W-NW FLOW ALOFT.
CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS ARRIVING AFTER 18Z THU ACROSS THE E
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES THAN PUSHING INTO THE CT VALLEY LATE IN
THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE MOST ACTION WILL OCCUR THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS
FRONT MOVES SLOWLY BUT STEADILY ACROSS. WITH GOOD PUSH OF DRIER
AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT...NOTING PWATS INCREASE TO 1.9 TO 2.1 INCHES
DURING THE NIGHT WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS. ALSO
GOOD ELEVATED CONVECTION SIGNALS...WITH TQ VALUES IN THE LOW 20S
ALONG WITH K INDICES IN THE MID 30S. SPC HAS ALSO MENTIONED
MARGINALLY SEVERE CONDITIONS AS THE PRECIP MOVES INTO FAR WESTERN
AREAS LATE IN THE DAY. SOMETHING TO BE WATCHED.

HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
ALSO USED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

EXPECT FRONT TO CLEAR THE COAST FRI MORNING. ISOLD THUNDER MAY
LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING AS BEST INSTABILITY MOVES OFFSHORE.
SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS UNTIL AROUND
MIDDAY THEN SHOULD EXIT. NOTING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE HUMID
CONDITIONS AS DEWPTS FALL BACK TO THE 50S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM THOUGH...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER-
MID 80S.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND COMFORTABLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND W MA INTO N CT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 60S...THOUGH MAY
LINGER AROUND 70 ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
NOTING ANOTHER DIP IN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES IN THE UPPER FLOW. OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVING
TROUBLE HANDLING THIS FEATURE...THOUGH DOES LOOK LIKE THERE MAY BE
SOME ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AS WEAK FRONT CROSSES SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN MORNING. LOOKS LIKE BEST SHOT FOR NOW WILL BE ACROSS THE
CT VALLEY AND ALONG E COAST...THOUGH COULD SEE ISOLD ACTIVITY
ANYWHERE. SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...
THE H5 CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON/JAMES BAYS HINTS IN SHIFTING SLOWLY
E ACROSS N QUEBEC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT STILL SEEING LONG
WAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BOTH MON AND
TUE...THOUGH SOME QUESTION ON EXACT TIMING THIS FAR OUT. WILL
REMAIN WARM AND HUMID DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR FOR MANY SITES...HOWEVER
ANTICIPATE PATCHY DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP DROPPING SOME SITES DOWN
TO IFR OR EVEN LIFR. BEST SPOT WILL BE ACROSS THE CAPE...ISLANDS
AND SOUTH COAST WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 70S.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CONDITIONS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT DROPPING CONDITIONS TO
IFR.

THURSDAY...VFR TO START CONDITIONS DROPPING TO MVFR IN -SHRA/TSRA
BETWEEN 18-00Z. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS BETWEEN
14-15Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI/SE MA AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS N CENTRAL AND W MA INTO N CENTRAL
CT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. LINGERING
SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG ALONG S COAST...
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY THROUGH SAT.
ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS.
LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE  STORMS ACROSS THE ADJACENT SOUTH COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 7 OR
8 PM.  LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED HAIL ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.  ALSO...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING NEAR
THE ISLANDS BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS
TURN WEST.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...EXPECT LIGHT SW WINDS WED NIGHT
INTO THU...THEN PICKING UP DURING THU AFTERNOON. MAY SEE GUSTS TO
20 KT. SEAS 4 FT OR LESS. PATCHY FOG WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING
LOWERING VSBYS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT MAINLY OVER THE OPEN
WATERS. SEAS REACHING AROUND 5 FT. PATCHY FOG ALONG WITH SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS LOWERING VSBYS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT MAY ENTER THE WATERS LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT. SEAS OVER
THE OPEN WATERS UP TO AROUND 5 FT DURING FRI...SUBSIDING FRI
NIGHT BUT MAY BUILD AGAIN SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MAZ017>024.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR RIZ005>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DUNTEN/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 290531
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
131 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

2 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED A DEGREE OR TWO BUT ANTICIPATE LOW TEMPS
TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT AS
DEWPOINTS HAVE REACHED IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AS WELL. THIS
LOW TEMPS/DEWPOINT SPREAD HAS ALLOWED FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS SE
MASS/RI AND THE ISLANDS. EXPECT FOG TO SLOWLY INCREASE ESP IN
REGIONS THAT RECEIVED RAIN TODAY AND ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. MAY
NEED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADV IF VSBYS DROP ANY LOWER...RIGHT NOW
MANY SITES ARE HOLDING AROUND 2-4SM.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
***HOT BUT DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY***

UPPER LEVEL RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DESPITE SOME
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.  850 MB TEMPS AROUND +18C WILL YIELD HIGHS
BETWEEN 90 AND 95 ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN TEMPS A BIT COOLER ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST.
WHILE THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A VERY ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OPTED FOR A DRY
FORECAST.  EVEN IF ONE WERE TO HAPPEN IT PROBABLY WOULD BE VERY
BRIEF AND COVER SUCH A SMALL AREA OF OUR REGION...NOT WORTH A
MENTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AS H5 CUTOFF LOW SETS UP ACROSS HUDSON BAY/ONTARIO/W QUEBEC AND A
NEGATIVE NAO PATTERN IN PLACE...A FAST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN STREAM THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SHORT WAVES IN THIS
FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH TIMING OF
EACH INDIVIDUAL SYSTEM IS IN QUESTION BEYOND FRIDAY DUE TO THE FAST
FLOW. MAY START TO SEE THIS LONG WAVE PATTERN BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS TIMING THIS FAR OUT.

NOTED VERY GOOD CONTINUITY AND TIMING OF APPROACHING SYSTEM LATE
THIS WEEK AMONGST THE MEDIUM MODEL SUITE...THEN TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF SYSTEMS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN QUESTION.  SO...
WENT WITH A BLEND OF 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF OP MODEL RUNS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO AN OVERALL BLEND OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE INCLUDING GEFS/ECENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WHICH GAVE GOOD
CONSISTENCY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL CROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT. WILL SEE
SULTRY CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG WHICH MAY
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S THOUGH A BIT MILDER IN THE URBAN CENTERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
PRETTY VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES ALONG IN W-NW FLOW ALOFT.
CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS ARRIVING AFTER 18Z THU ACROSS THE E
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES THAN PUSHING INTO THE CT VALLEY LATE IN
THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE MOST ACTION WILL OCCUR THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS
FRONT MOVES SLOWLY BUT STEADILY ACROSS. WITH GOOD PUSH OF DRIER
AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT...NOTING PWATS INCREASE TO 1.9 TO 2.1 INCHES
DURING THE NIGHT WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS. ALSO
GOOD ELEVATED CONVECTION SIGNALS...WITH TQ VALUES IN THE LOW 20S
ALONG WITH K INDICES IN THE MID 30S. SPC HAS ALSO MENTIONED
MARGINALLY SEVERE CONDITIONS AS THE PRECIP MOVES INTO FAR WESTERN
AREAS LATE IN THE DAY. SOMETHING TO BE WATCHED.

HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
ALSO USED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

EXPECT FRONT TO CLEAR THE COAST FRI MORNING. ISOLD THUNDER MAY
LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING AS BEST INSTABILITY MOVES OFFSHORE.
SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS UNTIL AROUND
MIDDAY THEN SHOULD EXIT. NOTING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE HUMID
CONDITIONS AS DEWPTS FALL BACK TO THE 50S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM THOUGH...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER-
MID 80S.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND COMFORTABLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND W MA INTO N CT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 60S...THOUGH MAY
LINGER AROUND 70 ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
NOTING ANOTHER DIP IN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES IN THE UPPER FLOW. OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVING
TROUBLE HANDLING THIS FEATURE...THOUGH DOES LOOK LIKE THERE MAY BE
SOME ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AS WEAK FRONT CROSSES SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN MORNING. LOOKS LIKE BEST SHOT FOR NOW WILL BE ACROSS THE
CT VALLEY AND ALONG E COAST...THOUGH COULD SEE ISOLD ACTIVITY
ANYWHERE. SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...
THE H5 CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON/JAMES BAYS HINTS IN SHIFTING SLOWLY
E ACROSS N QUEBEC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT STILL SEEING LONG
WAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BOTH MON AND
TUE...THOUGH SOME QUESTION ON EXACT TIMING THIS FAR OUT. WILL
REMAIN WARM AND HUMID DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR FOR MANY SITES...HOWEVER
ANTICIPATE PATCHY DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP DROPPING SOME SITES DOWN
TO IFR OR EVEN LIFR. BEST SPOT WILL BE ACROSS THE CAPE...ISLANDS
AND SOUTH COAST WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 70S.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CONDITIONS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT DROPPING CONDITIONS TO
IFR.

THURSDAY...VFR TO START CONDITIONS DROPPING TO MVFR IN -SHRA/TSRA
BETWEEN 18-00Z. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS BETWEEN
14-15Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI/SE MA AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS N CENTRAL AND W MA INTO N CENTRAL
CT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. LINGERING
SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG ALONG S COAST...
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY THROUGH SAT.
ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS.
LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE  STORMS ACROSS THE ADJACENT SOUTH COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 7 OR
8 PM.  LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED HAIL ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.  ALSO...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING NEAR
THE ISLANDS BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS
TURN WEST.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...EXPECT LIGHT SW WINDS WED NIGHT
INTO THU...THEN PICKING UP DURING THU AFTERNOON. MAY SEE GUSTS TO
20 KT. SEAS 4 FT OR LESS. PATCHY FOG WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING
LOWERING VSBYS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT MAINLY OVER THE OPEN
WATERS. SEAS REACHING AROUND 5 FT. PATCHY FOG ALONG WITH SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS LOWERING VSBYS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT MAY ENTER THE WATERS LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT. SEAS OVER
THE OPEN WATERS UP TO AROUND 5 FT DURING FRI...SUBSIDING FRI
NIGHT BUT MAY BUILD AGAIN SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MAZ017>024.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR RIZ005>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DUNTEN/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 290531
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
131 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

2 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED A DEGREE OR TWO BUT ANTICIPATE LOW TEMPS
TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT AS
DEWPOINTS HAVE REACHED IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AS WELL. THIS
LOW TEMPS/DEWPOINT SPREAD HAS ALLOWED FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS SE
MASS/RI AND THE ISLANDS. EXPECT FOG TO SLOWLY INCREASE ESP IN
REGIONS THAT RECEIVED RAIN TODAY AND ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. MAY
NEED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADV IF VSBYS DROP ANY LOWER...RIGHT NOW
MANY SITES ARE HOLDING AROUND 2-4SM.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
***HOT BUT DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY***

UPPER LEVEL RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DESPITE SOME
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.  850 MB TEMPS AROUND +18C WILL YIELD HIGHS
BETWEEN 90 AND 95 ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN TEMPS A BIT COOLER ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST.
WHILE THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A VERY ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OPTED FOR A DRY
FORECAST.  EVEN IF ONE WERE TO HAPPEN IT PROBABLY WOULD BE VERY
BRIEF AND COVER SUCH A SMALL AREA OF OUR REGION...NOT WORTH A
MENTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AS H5 CUTOFF LOW SETS UP ACROSS HUDSON BAY/ONTARIO/W QUEBEC AND A
NEGATIVE NAO PATTERN IN PLACE...A FAST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN STREAM THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SHORT WAVES IN THIS
FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH TIMING OF
EACH INDIVIDUAL SYSTEM IS IN QUESTION BEYOND FRIDAY DUE TO THE FAST
FLOW. MAY START TO SEE THIS LONG WAVE PATTERN BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS TIMING THIS FAR OUT.

NOTED VERY GOOD CONTINUITY AND TIMING OF APPROACHING SYSTEM LATE
THIS WEEK AMONGST THE MEDIUM MODEL SUITE...THEN TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF SYSTEMS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN QUESTION.  SO...
WENT WITH A BLEND OF 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF OP MODEL RUNS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO AN OVERALL BLEND OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE INCLUDING GEFS/ECENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WHICH GAVE GOOD
CONSISTENCY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL CROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT. WILL SEE
SULTRY CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG WHICH MAY
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S THOUGH A BIT MILDER IN THE URBAN CENTERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
PRETTY VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES ALONG IN W-NW FLOW ALOFT.
CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS ARRIVING AFTER 18Z THU ACROSS THE E
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES THAN PUSHING INTO THE CT VALLEY LATE IN
THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE MOST ACTION WILL OCCUR THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS
FRONT MOVES SLOWLY BUT STEADILY ACROSS. WITH GOOD PUSH OF DRIER
AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT...NOTING PWATS INCREASE TO 1.9 TO 2.1 INCHES
DURING THE NIGHT WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS. ALSO
GOOD ELEVATED CONVECTION SIGNALS...WITH TQ VALUES IN THE LOW 20S
ALONG WITH K INDICES IN THE MID 30S. SPC HAS ALSO MENTIONED
MARGINALLY SEVERE CONDITIONS AS THE PRECIP MOVES INTO FAR WESTERN
AREAS LATE IN THE DAY. SOMETHING TO BE WATCHED.

HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
ALSO USED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

EXPECT FRONT TO CLEAR THE COAST FRI MORNING. ISOLD THUNDER MAY
LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING AS BEST INSTABILITY MOVES OFFSHORE.
SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS UNTIL AROUND
MIDDAY THEN SHOULD EXIT. NOTING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE HUMID
CONDITIONS AS DEWPTS FALL BACK TO THE 50S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM THOUGH...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER-
MID 80S.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND COMFORTABLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND W MA INTO N CT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 60S...THOUGH MAY
LINGER AROUND 70 ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
NOTING ANOTHER DIP IN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES IN THE UPPER FLOW. OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVING
TROUBLE HANDLING THIS FEATURE...THOUGH DOES LOOK LIKE THERE MAY BE
SOME ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AS WEAK FRONT CROSSES SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN MORNING. LOOKS LIKE BEST SHOT FOR NOW WILL BE ACROSS THE
CT VALLEY AND ALONG E COAST...THOUGH COULD SEE ISOLD ACTIVITY
ANYWHERE. SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...
THE H5 CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON/JAMES BAYS HINTS IN SHIFTING SLOWLY
E ACROSS N QUEBEC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT STILL SEEING LONG
WAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BOTH MON AND
TUE...THOUGH SOME QUESTION ON EXACT TIMING THIS FAR OUT. WILL
REMAIN WARM AND HUMID DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR FOR MANY SITES...HOWEVER
ANTICIPATE PATCHY DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP DROPPING SOME SITES DOWN
TO IFR OR EVEN LIFR. BEST SPOT WILL BE ACROSS THE CAPE...ISLANDS
AND SOUTH COAST WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 70S.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CONDITIONS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT DROPPING CONDITIONS TO
IFR.

THURSDAY...VFR TO START CONDITIONS DROPPING TO MVFR IN -SHRA/TSRA
BETWEEN 18-00Z. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS BETWEEN
14-15Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI/SE MA AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS N CENTRAL AND W MA INTO N CENTRAL
CT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. LINGERING
SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG ALONG S COAST...
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY THROUGH SAT.
ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS.
LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE  STORMS ACROSS THE ADJACENT SOUTH COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 7 OR
8 PM.  LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED HAIL ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.  ALSO...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING NEAR
THE ISLANDS BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS
TURN WEST.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...EXPECT LIGHT SW WINDS WED NIGHT
INTO THU...THEN PICKING UP DURING THU AFTERNOON. MAY SEE GUSTS TO
20 KT. SEAS 4 FT OR LESS. PATCHY FOG WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING
LOWERING VSBYS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT MAINLY OVER THE OPEN
WATERS. SEAS REACHING AROUND 5 FT. PATCHY FOG ALONG WITH SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS LOWERING VSBYS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT MAY ENTER THE WATERS LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT. SEAS OVER
THE OPEN WATERS UP TO AROUND 5 FT DURING FRI...SUBSIDING FRI
NIGHT BUT MAY BUILD AGAIN SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MAZ017>024.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR RIZ005>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DUNTEN/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 290531
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
131 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

2 AM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED A DEGREE OR TWO BUT ANTICIPATE LOW TEMPS
TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT AS
DEWPOINTS HAVE REACHED IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AS WELL. THIS
LOW TEMPS/DEWPOINT SPREAD HAS ALLOWED FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS SE
MASS/RI AND THE ISLANDS. EXPECT FOG TO SLOWLY INCREASE ESP IN
REGIONS THAT RECEIVED RAIN TODAY AND ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. MAY
NEED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADV IF VSBYS DROP ANY LOWER...RIGHT NOW
MANY SITES ARE HOLDING AROUND 2-4SM.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
***HOT BUT DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY***

UPPER LEVEL RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DESPITE SOME
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.  850 MB TEMPS AROUND +18C WILL YIELD HIGHS
BETWEEN 90 AND 95 ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN TEMPS A BIT COOLER ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST.
WHILE THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A VERY ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OPTED FOR A DRY
FORECAST.  EVEN IF ONE WERE TO HAPPEN IT PROBABLY WOULD BE VERY
BRIEF AND COVER SUCH A SMALL AREA OF OUR REGION...NOT WORTH A
MENTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AS H5 CUTOFF LOW SETS UP ACROSS HUDSON BAY/ONTARIO/W QUEBEC AND A
NEGATIVE NAO PATTERN IN PLACE...A FAST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN STREAM THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SHORT WAVES IN THIS
FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH TIMING OF
EACH INDIVIDUAL SYSTEM IS IN QUESTION BEYOND FRIDAY DUE TO THE FAST
FLOW. MAY START TO SEE THIS LONG WAVE PATTERN BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS TIMING THIS FAR OUT.

NOTED VERY GOOD CONTINUITY AND TIMING OF APPROACHING SYSTEM LATE
THIS WEEK AMONGST THE MEDIUM MODEL SUITE...THEN TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF SYSTEMS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN QUESTION.  SO...
WENT WITH A BLEND OF 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF OP MODEL RUNS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO AN OVERALL BLEND OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE INCLUDING GEFS/ECENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WHICH GAVE GOOD
CONSISTENCY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL CROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT. WILL SEE
SULTRY CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG WHICH MAY
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S THOUGH A BIT MILDER IN THE URBAN CENTERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
PRETTY VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES ALONG IN W-NW FLOW ALOFT.
CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS ARRIVING AFTER 18Z THU ACROSS THE E
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES THAN PUSHING INTO THE CT VALLEY LATE IN
THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE MOST ACTION WILL OCCUR THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS
FRONT MOVES SLOWLY BUT STEADILY ACROSS. WITH GOOD PUSH OF DRIER
AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT...NOTING PWATS INCREASE TO 1.9 TO 2.1 INCHES
DURING THE NIGHT WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS. ALSO
GOOD ELEVATED CONVECTION SIGNALS...WITH TQ VALUES IN THE LOW 20S
ALONG WITH K INDICES IN THE MID 30S. SPC HAS ALSO MENTIONED
MARGINALLY SEVERE CONDITIONS AS THE PRECIP MOVES INTO FAR WESTERN
AREAS LATE IN THE DAY. SOMETHING TO BE WATCHED.

HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
ALSO USED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

EXPECT FRONT TO CLEAR THE COAST FRI MORNING. ISOLD THUNDER MAY
LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING AS BEST INSTABILITY MOVES OFFSHORE.
SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS UNTIL AROUND
MIDDAY THEN SHOULD EXIT. NOTING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE HUMID
CONDITIONS AS DEWPTS FALL BACK TO THE 50S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM THOUGH...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER-
MID 80S.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND COMFORTABLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND W MA INTO N CT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 60S...THOUGH MAY
LINGER AROUND 70 ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
NOTING ANOTHER DIP IN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES IN THE UPPER FLOW. OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVING
TROUBLE HANDLING THIS FEATURE...THOUGH DOES LOOK LIKE THERE MAY BE
SOME ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AS WEAK FRONT CROSSES SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN MORNING. LOOKS LIKE BEST SHOT FOR NOW WILL BE ACROSS THE
CT VALLEY AND ALONG E COAST...THOUGH COULD SEE ISOLD ACTIVITY
ANYWHERE. SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...
THE H5 CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON/JAMES BAYS HINTS IN SHIFTING SLOWLY
E ACROSS N QUEBEC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT STILL SEEING LONG
WAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BOTH MON AND
TUE...THOUGH SOME QUESTION ON EXACT TIMING THIS FAR OUT. WILL
REMAIN WARM AND HUMID DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR FOR MANY SITES...HOWEVER
ANTICIPATE PATCHY DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP DROPPING SOME SITES DOWN
TO IFR OR EVEN LIFR. BEST SPOT WILL BE ACROSS THE CAPE...ISLANDS
AND SOUTH COAST WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 70S.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CONDITIONS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT DROPPING CONDITIONS TO
IFR.

THURSDAY...VFR TO START CONDITIONS DROPPING TO MVFR IN -SHRA/TSRA
BETWEEN 18-00Z. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS BETWEEN
14-15Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI/SE MA AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS N CENTRAL AND W MA INTO N CENTRAL
CT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. LINGERING
SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG ALONG S COAST...
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY THROUGH SAT.
ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS.
LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE  STORMS ACROSS THE ADJACENT SOUTH COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 7 OR
8 PM.  LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED HAIL ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.  ALSO...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING NEAR
THE ISLANDS BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS
TURN WEST.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...EXPECT LIGHT SW WINDS WED NIGHT
INTO THU...THEN PICKING UP DURING THU AFTERNOON. MAY SEE GUSTS TO
20 KT. SEAS 4 FT OR LESS. PATCHY FOG WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING
LOWERING VSBYS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT MAINLY OVER THE OPEN
WATERS. SEAS REACHING AROUND 5 FT. PATCHY FOG ALONG WITH SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS LOWERING VSBYS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT MAY ENTER THE WATERS LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT. SEAS OVER
THE OPEN WATERS UP TO AROUND 5 FT DURING FRI...SUBSIDING FRI
NIGHT BUT MAY BUILD AGAIN SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MAZ017>024.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR RIZ005>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...DUNTEN/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 290202
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1002 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

10 PM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. BIGGEST ISSUE TONIGHT
IS THE HUMID AIRMASS WHICH WILL INCREASE THE FOG POTENTIAL ESP
FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN TODAY. SEVERAL LOCATIONS HAVE
ALREADY DROPPED DOWN TO A MILE OR LESS...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE DENSE FOG ADV.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. LOW
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S IN THE OUTLYING
LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF
DOWNTOWN BOSTON AND PROVIDENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
***HOT BUT DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY***

UPPER LEVEL RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DESPITE SOME
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.  850 MB TEMPS AROUND +18C WILL YIELD HIGHS
BETWEEN 90 AND 95 ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN TEMPS A BIT COOLER ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST.
WHILE THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A VERY ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OPTED FOR A DRY
FORECAST.  EVEN IF ONE WERE TO HAPPEN IT PROBABLY WOULD BE VERY
BRIEF AND COVER SUCH A SMALL AREA OF OUR REGION...NOT WORTH A
MENTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AS H5 CUTOFF LOW SETS UP ACROSS HUDSON BAY/ONTARIO/W QUEBEC AND A
NEGATIVE NAO PATTERN IN PLACE...A FAST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN STREAM THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SHORT WAVES IN THIS
FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH TIMING OF
EACH INDIVIDUAL SYSTEM IS IN QUESTION BEYOND FRIDAY DUE TO THE FAST
FLOW. MAY START TO SEE THIS LONG WAVE PATTERN BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS TIMING THIS FAR OUT.

NOTED VERY GOOD CONTINUITY AND TIMING OF APPROACHING SYSTEM LATE
THIS WEEK AMONGST THE MEDIUM MODEL SUITE...THEN TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF SYSTEMS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN QUESTION.  SO...
WENT WITH A BLEND OF 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF OP MODEL RUNS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO AN OVERALL BLEND OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE INCLUDING GEFS/ECENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WHICH GAVE GOOD
CONSISTENCY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL CROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT. WILL SEE
SULTRY CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG WHICH MAY
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S THOUGH A BIT MILDER IN THE URBAN CENTERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
PRETTY VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES ALONG IN W-NW FLOW ALOFT.
CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS ARRIVING AFTER 18Z THU ACROSS THE E
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES THAN PUSHING INTO THE CT VALLEY LATE IN
THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE MOST ACTION WILL OCCUR THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS
FRONT MOVES SLOWLY BUT STEADILY ACROSS. WITH GOOD PUSH OF DRIER
AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT...NOTING PWATS INCREASE TO 1.9 TO 2.1 INCHES
DURING THE NIGHT WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS. ALSO
GOOD ELEVATED CONVECTION SIGNALS...WITH TQ VALUES IN THE LOW 20S
ALONG WITH K INDICES IN THE MID 30S. SPC HAS ALSO MENTIONED
MARGINALLY SEVERE CONDITIONS AS THE PRECIP MOVES INTO FAR WESTERN
AREAS LATE IN THE DAY. SOMETHING TO BE WATCHED.

HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
ALSO USED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

EXPECT FRONT TO CLEAR THE COAST FRI MORNING. ISOLD THUNDER MAY
LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING AS BEST INSTABILITY MOVES OFFSHORE.
SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS UNTIL AROUND
MIDDAY THEN SHOULD EXIT. NOTING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE HUMID
CONDITIONS AS DEWPTS FALL BACK TO THE 50S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM THOUGH...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER-
MID 80S.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND COMFORTABLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND W MA INTO N CT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 60S...THOUGH MAY
LINGER AROUND 70 ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
NOTING ANOTHER DIP IN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES IN THE UPPER FLOW. OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVING
TROUBLE HANDLING THIS FEATURE...THOUGH DOES LOOK LIKE THERE MAY BE
SOME ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AS WEAK FRONT CROSSES SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN MORNING. LOOKS LIKE BEST SHOT FOR NOW WILL BE ACROSS THE
CT VALLEY AND ALONG E COAST...THOUGH COULD SEE ISOLD ACTIVITY
ANYWHERE. SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...
THE H5 CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON/JAMES BAYS HINTS IN SHIFTING SLOWLY
E ACROSS N QUEBEC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT STILL SEEING LONG
WAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BOTH MON AND
TUE...THOUGH SOME QUESTION ON EXACT TIMING THIS FAR OUT. WILL
REMAIN WARM AND HUMID DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR FOR MANY SITES...HOWEVER
ANTICIPATE PATCHY DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP DROPPING SOME SITES DOWN
TO IFR OR EVEN LIFR. BEST SPOT WILL BE ACROSS THE CAPE...ISLANDS
AND SOUTH COAST WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 70S.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. WILL SEE PATCHY
FOG WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAINLY NEAR OR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR-IFR IN FOG IMPROVING
TO VFR BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER...LOW PROB THAT MVFR-IFR IN LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG MAY LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS AFTER 18Z...THEN
SHIFTING E BY EVENING.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI/SE MA AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS N CENTRAL AND W MA INTO N CENTRAL
CT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. LINGERING
SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG ALONG S COAST...
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY THROUGH SAT.
ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS.
LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE  STORMS ACROSS THE ADJACENT SOUTH COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 7 OR
8 PM.  LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED HAIL ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.  ALSO...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING NEAR
THE ISLANDS BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS
TURN WEST.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...EXPECT LIGHT SW WINDS WED NIGHT
INTO THU...THEN PICKING UP DURING THU AFTERNOON. MAY SEE GUSTS TO
20 KT. SEAS 4 FT OR LESS. PATCHY FOG WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING
LOWERING VSBYS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT MAINLY OVER THE OPEN
WATERS. SEAS REACHING AROUND 5 FT. PATCHY FOG ALONG WITH SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS LOWERING VSBYS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT MAY ENTER THE WATERS LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT. SEAS OVER
THE OPEN WATERS UP TO AROUND 5 FT DURING FRI...SUBSIDING FRI
NIGHT BUT MAY BUILD AGAIN SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     MAZ017>024.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     RIZ005>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 290202
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1002 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

10 PM UPDATE...

OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. BIGGEST ISSUE TONIGHT
IS THE HUMID AIRMASS WHICH WILL INCREASE THE FOG POTENTIAL ESP
FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN TODAY. SEVERAL LOCATIONS HAVE
ALREADY DROPPED DOWN TO A MILE OR LESS...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE DENSE FOG ADV.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. LOW
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S IN THE OUTLYING
LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF
DOWNTOWN BOSTON AND PROVIDENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
***HOT BUT DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY***

UPPER LEVEL RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DESPITE SOME
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.  850 MB TEMPS AROUND +18C WILL YIELD HIGHS
BETWEEN 90 AND 95 ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN TEMPS A BIT COOLER ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST.
WHILE THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A VERY ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OPTED FOR A DRY
FORECAST.  EVEN IF ONE WERE TO HAPPEN IT PROBABLY WOULD BE VERY
BRIEF AND COVER SUCH A SMALL AREA OF OUR REGION...NOT WORTH A
MENTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AS H5 CUTOFF LOW SETS UP ACROSS HUDSON BAY/ONTARIO/W QUEBEC AND A
NEGATIVE NAO PATTERN IN PLACE...A FAST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN STREAM THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SHORT WAVES IN THIS
FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH TIMING OF
EACH INDIVIDUAL SYSTEM IS IN QUESTION BEYOND FRIDAY DUE TO THE FAST
FLOW. MAY START TO SEE THIS LONG WAVE PATTERN BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS TIMING THIS FAR OUT.

NOTED VERY GOOD CONTINUITY AND TIMING OF APPROACHING SYSTEM LATE
THIS WEEK AMONGST THE MEDIUM MODEL SUITE...THEN TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF SYSTEMS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN QUESTION.  SO...
WENT WITH A BLEND OF 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF OP MODEL RUNS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO AN OVERALL BLEND OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE INCLUDING GEFS/ECENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WHICH GAVE GOOD
CONSISTENCY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL CROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT. WILL SEE
SULTRY CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG WHICH MAY
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S THOUGH A BIT MILDER IN THE URBAN CENTERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
PRETTY VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES ALONG IN W-NW FLOW ALOFT.
CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS ARRIVING AFTER 18Z THU ACROSS THE E
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES THAN PUSHING INTO THE CT VALLEY LATE IN
THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE MOST ACTION WILL OCCUR THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS
FRONT MOVES SLOWLY BUT STEADILY ACROSS. WITH GOOD PUSH OF DRIER
AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT...NOTING PWATS INCREASE TO 1.9 TO 2.1 INCHES
DURING THE NIGHT WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS. ALSO
GOOD ELEVATED CONVECTION SIGNALS...WITH TQ VALUES IN THE LOW 20S
ALONG WITH K INDICES IN THE MID 30S. SPC HAS ALSO MENTIONED
MARGINALLY SEVERE CONDITIONS AS THE PRECIP MOVES INTO FAR WESTERN
AREAS LATE IN THE DAY. SOMETHING TO BE WATCHED.

HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
ALSO USED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

EXPECT FRONT TO CLEAR THE COAST FRI MORNING. ISOLD THUNDER MAY
LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING AS BEST INSTABILITY MOVES OFFSHORE.
SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS UNTIL AROUND
MIDDAY THEN SHOULD EXIT. NOTING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE HUMID
CONDITIONS AS DEWPTS FALL BACK TO THE 50S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM THOUGH...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER-
MID 80S.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND COMFORTABLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND W MA INTO N CT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 60S...THOUGH MAY
LINGER AROUND 70 ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
NOTING ANOTHER DIP IN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES IN THE UPPER FLOW. OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVING
TROUBLE HANDLING THIS FEATURE...THOUGH DOES LOOK LIKE THERE MAY BE
SOME ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AS WEAK FRONT CROSSES SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN MORNING. LOOKS LIKE BEST SHOT FOR NOW WILL BE ACROSS THE
CT VALLEY AND ALONG E COAST...THOUGH COULD SEE ISOLD ACTIVITY
ANYWHERE. SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...
THE H5 CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON/JAMES BAYS HINTS IN SHIFTING SLOWLY
E ACROSS N QUEBEC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT STILL SEEING LONG
WAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BOTH MON AND
TUE...THOUGH SOME QUESTION ON EXACT TIMING THIS FAR OUT. WILL
REMAIN WARM AND HUMID DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR FOR MANY SITES...HOWEVER
ANTICIPATE PATCHY DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP DROPPING SOME SITES DOWN
TO IFR OR EVEN LIFR. BEST SPOT WILL BE ACROSS THE CAPE...ISLANDS
AND SOUTH COAST WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 70S.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. WILL SEE PATCHY
FOG WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAINLY NEAR OR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR-IFR IN FOG IMPROVING
TO VFR BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER...LOW PROB THAT MVFR-IFR IN LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG MAY LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS AFTER 18Z...THEN
SHIFTING E BY EVENING.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI/SE MA AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS N CENTRAL AND W MA INTO N CENTRAL
CT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. LINGERING
SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG ALONG S COAST...
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY THROUGH SAT.
ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS.
LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE  STORMS ACROSS THE ADJACENT SOUTH COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 7 OR
8 PM.  LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED HAIL ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.  ALSO...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING NEAR
THE ISLANDS BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS
TURN WEST.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...EXPECT LIGHT SW WINDS WED NIGHT
INTO THU...THEN PICKING UP DURING THU AFTERNOON. MAY SEE GUSTS TO
20 KT. SEAS 4 FT OR LESS. PATCHY FOG WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING
LOWERING VSBYS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT MAINLY OVER THE OPEN
WATERS. SEAS REACHING AROUND 5 FT. PATCHY FOG ALONG WITH SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS LOWERING VSBYS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT MAY ENTER THE WATERS LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT. SEAS OVER
THE OPEN WATERS UP TO AROUND 5 FT DURING FRI...SUBSIDING FRI
NIGHT BUT MAY BUILD AGAIN SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     MAZ017>024.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     RIZ005>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT/DUNTEN
MARINE...FRANK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 282352
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
752 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

730 PM UPDATE...

LAST OF WEAKENING SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OFF THE RI COAST AND IN THE
VICINITY OF KBID AT 2330Z. THE ISOLD SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED INLAND
W OF KORH AND NEAR KBED HAVE ALSO MOSTLY DISSIPATED. NOTING
LEFTOVER DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THE CONVECTION HANGING ACROSS INTERIOR
MA/RI/NE CT ON LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. SHOULD SEE THOSE
CLOUDS TEND TO DISSIPATE. HOWEVER...MORE CLOUDS MOVE MAY TRAVERSE
ACROSS THE REGION IN THE N-NW FLOW ALOFT OUT OF N NEW ENGLAND AND
UPSTATE NY OVERNIGHT.

NOTING LOW CLOUDS ALREADY AT KACK...SO WILL LIKELY SEE LOW CLOUDS
EXPAND ALONG THE S COAST IN THE SOUPY AIRMASS. PATCHY FOG WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE RAIN FELL THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING.

HAVE UPDATED NEAR TERM FORECAST TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. LOW
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S IN THE OUTLYING
LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF
DOWNTOWN BOSTON AND PROVIDENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
***HOT BUT DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY***

UPPER LEVEL RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DESPITE SOME
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.  850 MB TEMPS AROUND +18C WILL YIELD HIGHS
BETWEEN 90 AND 95 ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN TEMPS A BIT COOLER ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST.
WHILE THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A VERY ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OPTED FOR A DRY
FORECAST.  EVEN IF ONE WERE TO HAPPEN IT PROBABLY WOULD BE VERY
BRIEF AND COVER SUCH A SMALL AREA OF OUR REGION...NOT WORTH A
MENTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AS H5 CUTOFF LOW SETS UP ACROSS HUDSON BAY/ONTARIO/W QUEBEC AND A
NEGATIVE NAO PATTERN IN PLACE...A FAST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN STREAM THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SHORT WAVES IN THIS
FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH TIMING OF
EACH INDIVIDUAL SYSTEM IS IN QUESTION BEYOND FRIDAY DUE TO THE FAST
FLOW. MAY START TO SEE THIS LONG WAVE PATTERN BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS TIMING THIS FAR OUT.

NOTED VERY GOOD CONTINUITY AND TIMING OF APPROACHING SYSTEM LATE
THIS WEEK AMONGST THE MEDIUM MODEL SUITE...THEN TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF SYSTEMS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN QUESTION.  SO...
WENT WITH A BLEND OF 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF OP MODEL RUNS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO AN OVERALL BLEND OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE INCLUDING GEFS/ECENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WHICH GAVE GOOD
CONSISTENCY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL CROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT. WILL SEE
SULTRY CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG WHICH MAY
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S THOUGH A BIT MILDER IN THE URBAN CENTERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
PRETTY VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES ALONG IN W-NW FLOW ALOFT.
CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS ARRIVING AFTER 18Z THU ACROSS THE E
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES THAN PUSHING INTO THE CT VALLEY LATE IN
THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE MOST ACTION WILL OCCUR THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS
FRONT MOVES SLOWLY BUT STEADILY ACROSS. WITH GOOD PUSH OF DRIER
AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT...NOTING PWATS INCREASE TO 1.9 TO 2.1 INCHES
DURING THE NIGHT WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS. ALSO
GOOD ELEVATED CONVECTION SIGNALS...WITH TQ VALUES IN THE LOW 20S
ALONG WITH K INDICES IN THE MID 30S. SPC HAS ALSO MENTIONED
MARGINALLY SEVERE CONDITIONS AS THE PRECIP MOVES INTO FAR WESTERN
AREAS LATE IN THE DAY. SOMETHING TO BE WATCHED.

HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
ALSO USED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

EXPECT FRONT TO CLEAR THE COAST FRI MORNING. ISOLD THUNDER MAY
LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING AS BEST INSTABILITY MOVES OFFSHORE.
SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS UNTIL AROUND
MIDDAY THEN SHOULD EXIT. NOTING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE HUMID
CONDITIONS AS DEWPTS FALL BACK TO THE 50S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM THOUGH...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER-
MID 80S.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND COMFORTABLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND W MA INTO N CT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 60S...THOUGH MAY
LINGER AROUND 70 ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
NOTING ANOTHER DIP IN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES IN THE UPPER FLOW. OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVING
TROUBLE HANDLING THIS FEATURE...THOUGH DOES LOOK LIKE THERE MAY BE
SOME ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AS WEAK FRONT CROSSES SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN MORNING. LOOKS LIKE BEST SHOT FOR NOW WILL BE ACROSS THE
CT VALLEY AND ALONG E COAST...THOUGH COULD SEE ISOLD ACTIVITY
ANYWHERE. SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...
THE H5 CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON/JAMES BAYS HINTS IN SHIFTING SLOWLY
E ACROSS N QUEBEC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT STILL SEEING LONG
WAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BOTH MON AND
TUE...THOUGH SOME QUESTION ON EXACT TIMING THIS FAR OUT. WILL
REMAIN WARM AND HUMID DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. WILL
LIKELY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ALONG S COAST AND TYPICALLY PRONE
INLAND LOCATIONS WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS. MAY ALSO SEE IFR-LIFR
CIGS MAINLY ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.


ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY 7 OR 8 PM.  OTHERWISE...VFR FOR MOST SITES
EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.
ALSO...CANNOT RULE OUT IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS FAR SE MASS
INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS LOW.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEST OF THE BOSTON TERMINAL...BUT
STILL A LOW RISK THAT SOMETHING COULD DEVELOP THROUGH 8 PM

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.  VERY
LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED THROUGH 8 PM.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. WILL SEE PATCHY
FOG WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAINLY NEAR OR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR-IFR IN FOG IMPROVING
TO VFR BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER...LOW PROB THAT MVFR-IFR IN LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG MAY LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS AFTER 18Z...THEN
SHIFTING E BY EVENING.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI/SE MA AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS N CENTRAL AND W MA INTO N CENTRAL
CT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. LINGERING
SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG ALONG S COAST...
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY THROUGH SAT.
ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS.
LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE  STORMS ACROSS THE ADJACENT SOUTH COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 7 OR
8 PM.  LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED HAIL ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.  ALSO...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING NEAR
THE ISLANDS BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS
TURN WEST.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...EXPECT LIGHT SW WINDS WED NIGHT
INTO THU...THEN PICKING UP DURING THU AFTERNOON. MAY SEE GUSTS TO
20 KT. SEAS 4 FT OR LESS. PATCHY FOG WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING
LOWERING VSBYS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT MAINLY OVER THE OPEN
WATERS. SEAS REACHING AROUND 5 FT. PATCHY FOG ALONG WITH SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS LOWERING VSBYS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT MAY ENTER THE WATERS LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT. SEAS OVER
THE OPEN WATERS UP TO AROUND 5 FT DURING FRI...SUBSIDING FRI
NIGHT BUT MAY BUILD AGAIN SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     MAZ017>024.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     RIZ005>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK/EVT
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 282352
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
752 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

730 PM UPDATE...

LAST OF WEAKENING SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OFF THE RI COAST AND IN THE
VICINITY OF KBID AT 2330Z. THE ISOLD SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED INLAND
W OF KORH AND NEAR KBED HAVE ALSO MOSTLY DISSIPATED. NOTING
LEFTOVER DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THE CONVECTION HANGING ACROSS INTERIOR
MA/RI/NE CT ON LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. SHOULD SEE THOSE
CLOUDS TEND TO DISSIPATE. HOWEVER...MORE CLOUDS MOVE MAY TRAVERSE
ACROSS THE REGION IN THE N-NW FLOW ALOFT OUT OF N NEW ENGLAND AND
UPSTATE NY OVERNIGHT.

NOTING LOW CLOUDS ALREADY AT KACK...SO WILL LIKELY SEE LOW CLOUDS
EXPAND ALONG THE S COAST IN THE SOUPY AIRMASS. PATCHY FOG WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE RAIN FELL THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING.

HAVE UPDATED NEAR TERM FORECAST TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. LOW
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S IN THE OUTLYING
LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF
DOWNTOWN BOSTON AND PROVIDENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
***HOT BUT DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY***

UPPER LEVEL RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DESPITE SOME
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.  850 MB TEMPS AROUND +18C WILL YIELD HIGHS
BETWEEN 90 AND 95 ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN TEMPS A BIT COOLER ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST.
WHILE THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A VERY ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OPTED FOR A DRY
FORECAST.  EVEN IF ONE WERE TO HAPPEN IT PROBABLY WOULD BE VERY
BRIEF AND COVER SUCH A SMALL AREA OF OUR REGION...NOT WORTH A
MENTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AS H5 CUTOFF LOW SETS UP ACROSS HUDSON BAY/ONTARIO/W QUEBEC AND A
NEGATIVE NAO PATTERN IN PLACE...A FAST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN STREAM THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SHORT WAVES IN THIS
FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH TIMING OF
EACH INDIVIDUAL SYSTEM IS IN QUESTION BEYOND FRIDAY DUE TO THE FAST
FLOW. MAY START TO SEE THIS LONG WAVE PATTERN BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS TIMING THIS FAR OUT.

NOTED VERY GOOD CONTINUITY AND TIMING OF APPROACHING SYSTEM LATE
THIS WEEK AMONGST THE MEDIUM MODEL SUITE...THEN TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF SYSTEMS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN QUESTION.  SO...
WENT WITH A BLEND OF 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF OP MODEL RUNS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO AN OVERALL BLEND OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE INCLUDING GEFS/ECENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WHICH GAVE GOOD
CONSISTENCY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL CROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT. WILL SEE
SULTRY CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG WHICH MAY
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S THOUGH A BIT MILDER IN THE URBAN CENTERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
PRETTY VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES ALONG IN W-NW FLOW ALOFT.
CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS ARRIVING AFTER 18Z THU ACROSS THE E
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES THAN PUSHING INTO THE CT VALLEY LATE IN
THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE MOST ACTION WILL OCCUR THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS
FRONT MOVES SLOWLY BUT STEADILY ACROSS. WITH GOOD PUSH OF DRIER
AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT...NOTING PWATS INCREASE TO 1.9 TO 2.1 INCHES
DURING THE NIGHT WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS. ALSO
GOOD ELEVATED CONVECTION SIGNALS...WITH TQ VALUES IN THE LOW 20S
ALONG WITH K INDICES IN THE MID 30S. SPC HAS ALSO MENTIONED
MARGINALLY SEVERE CONDITIONS AS THE PRECIP MOVES INTO FAR WESTERN
AREAS LATE IN THE DAY. SOMETHING TO BE WATCHED.

HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
ALSO USED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

EXPECT FRONT TO CLEAR THE COAST FRI MORNING. ISOLD THUNDER MAY
LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING AS BEST INSTABILITY MOVES OFFSHORE.
SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS UNTIL AROUND
MIDDAY THEN SHOULD EXIT. NOTING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE HUMID
CONDITIONS AS DEWPTS FALL BACK TO THE 50S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM THOUGH...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER-
MID 80S.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND COMFORTABLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND W MA INTO N CT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 60S...THOUGH MAY
LINGER AROUND 70 ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
NOTING ANOTHER DIP IN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES IN THE UPPER FLOW. OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVING
TROUBLE HANDLING THIS FEATURE...THOUGH DOES LOOK LIKE THERE MAY BE
SOME ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AS WEAK FRONT CROSSES SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN MORNING. LOOKS LIKE BEST SHOT FOR NOW WILL BE ACROSS THE
CT VALLEY AND ALONG E COAST...THOUGH COULD SEE ISOLD ACTIVITY
ANYWHERE. SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...
THE H5 CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON/JAMES BAYS HINTS IN SHIFTING SLOWLY
E ACROSS N QUEBEC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT STILL SEEING LONG
WAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BOTH MON AND
TUE...THOUGH SOME QUESTION ON EXACT TIMING THIS FAR OUT. WILL
REMAIN WARM AND HUMID DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. WILL
LIKELY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ALONG S COAST AND TYPICALLY PRONE
INLAND LOCATIONS WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS. MAY ALSO SEE IFR-LIFR
CIGS MAINLY ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.


ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY 7 OR 8 PM.  OTHERWISE...VFR FOR MOST SITES
EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.
ALSO...CANNOT RULE OUT IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS FAR SE MASS
INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS LOW.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEST OF THE BOSTON TERMINAL...BUT
STILL A LOW RISK THAT SOMETHING COULD DEVELOP THROUGH 8 PM

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.  VERY
LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED THROUGH 8 PM.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. WILL SEE PATCHY
FOG WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAINLY NEAR OR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR-IFR IN FOG IMPROVING
TO VFR BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER...LOW PROB THAT MVFR-IFR IN LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG MAY LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS AFTER 18Z...THEN
SHIFTING E BY EVENING.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI/SE MA AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS N CENTRAL AND W MA INTO N CENTRAL
CT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. LINGERING
SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG ALONG S COAST...
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY THROUGH SAT.
ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS.
LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE  STORMS ACROSS THE ADJACENT SOUTH COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 7 OR
8 PM.  LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED HAIL ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.  ALSO...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING NEAR
THE ISLANDS BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS
TURN WEST.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...EXPECT LIGHT SW WINDS WED NIGHT
INTO THU...THEN PICKING UP DURING THU AFTERNOON. MAY SEE GUSTS TO
20 KT. SEAS 4 FT OR LESS. PATCHY FOG WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING
LOWERING VSBYS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT MAINLY OVER THE OPEN
WATERS. SEAS REACHING AROUND 5 FT. PATCHY FOG ALONG WITH SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS LOWERING VSBYS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT MAY ENTER THE WATERS LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT. SEAS OVER
THE OPEN WATERS UP TO AROUND 5 FT DURING FRI...SUBSIDING FRI
NIGHT BUT MAY BUILD AGAIN SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     MAZ017>024.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     RIZ005>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK/EVT
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 282352
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
752 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

730 PM UPDATE...

LAST OF WEAKENING SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OFF THE RI COAST AND IN THE
VICINITY OF KBID AT 2330Z. THE ISOLD SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED INLAND
W OF KORH AND NEAR KBED HAVE ALSO MOSTLY DISSIPATED. NOTING
LEFTOVER DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THE CONVECTION HANGING ACROSS INTERIOR
MA/RI/NE CT ON LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. SHOULD SEE THOSE
CLOUDS TEND TO DISSIPATE. HOWEVER...MORE CLOUDS MOVE MAY TRAVERSE
ACROSS THE REGION IN THE N-NW FLOW ALOFT OUT OF N NEW ENGLAND AND
UPSTATE NY OVERNIGHT.

NOTING LOW CLOUDS ALREADY AT KACK...SO WILL LIKELY SEE LOW CLOUDS
EXPAND ALONG THE S COAST IN THE SOUPY AIRMASS. PATCHY FOG WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE RAIN FELL THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING.

HAVE UPDATED NEAR TERM FORECAST TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. LOW
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S IN THE OUTLYING
LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF
DOWNTOWN BOSTON AND PROVIDENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
***HOT BUT DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY***

UPPER LEVEL RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DESPITE SOME
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.  850 MB TEMPS AROUND +18C WILL YIELD HIGHS
BETWEEN 90 AND 95 ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN TEMPS A BIT COOLER ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST.
WHILE THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A VERY ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OPTED FOR A DRY
FORECAST.  EVEN IF ONE WERE TO HAPPEN IT PROBABLY WOULD BE VERY
BRIEF AND COVER SUCH A SMALL AREA OF OUR REGION...NOT WORTH A
MENTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AS H5 CUTOFF LOW SETS UP ACROSS HUDSON BAY/ONTARIO/W QUEBEC AND A
NEGATIVE NAO PATTERN IN PLACE...A FAST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN STREAM THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SHORT WAVES IN THIS
FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH TIMING OF
EACH INDIVIDUAL SYSTEM IS IN QUESTION BEYOND FRIDAY DUE TO THE FAST
FLOW. MAY START TO SEE THIS LONG WAVE PATTERN BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS TIMING THIS FAR OUT.

NOTED VERY GOOD CONTINUITY AND TIMING OF APPROACHING SYSTEM LATE
THIS WEEK AMONGST THE MEDIUM MODEL SUITE...THEN TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF SYSTEMS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN QUESTION.  SO...
WENT WITH A BLEND OF 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF OP MODEL RUNS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO AN OVERALL BLEND OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE INCLUDING GEFS/ECENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WHICH GAVE GOOD
CONSISTENCY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL CROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT. WILL SEE
SULTRY CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG WHICH MAY
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S THOUGH A BIT MILDER IN THE URBAN CENTERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
PRETTY VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES ALONG IN W-NW FLOW ALOFT.
CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS ARRIVING AFTER 18Z THU ACROSS THE E
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES THAN PUSHING INTO THE CT VALLEY LATE IN
THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE MOST ACTION WILL OCCUR THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS
FRONT MOVES SLOWLY BUT STEADILY ACROSS. WITH GOOD PUSH OF DRIER
AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT...NOTING PWATS INCREASE TO 1.9 TO 2.1 INCHES
DURING THE NIGHT WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS. ALSO
GOOD ELEVATED CONVECTION SIGNALS...WITH TQ VALUES IN THE LOW 20S
ALONG WITH K INDICES IN THE MID 30S. SPC HAS ALSO MENTIONED
MARGINALLY SEVERE CONDITIONS AS THE PRECIP MOVES INTO FAR WESTERN
AREAS LATE IN THE DAY. SOMETHING TO BE WATCHED.

HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
ALSO USED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

EXPECT FRONT TO CLEAR THE COAST FRI MORNING. ISOLD THUNDER MAY
LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING AS BEST INSTABILITY MOVES OFFSHORE.
SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS UNTIL AROUND
MIDDAY THEN SHOULD EXIT. NOTING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE HUMID
CONDITIONS AS DEWPTS FALL BACK TO THE 50S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM THOUGH...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER-
MID 80S.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND COMFORTABLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND W MA INTO N CT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 60S...THOUGH MAY
LINGER AROUND 70 ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
NOTING ANOTHER DIP IN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES IN THE UPPER FLOW. OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVING
TROUBLE HANDLING THIS FEATURE...THOUGH DOES LOOK LIKE THERE MAY BE
SOME ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AS WEAK FRONT CROSSES SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN MORNING. LOOKS LIKE BEST SHOT FOR NOW WILL BE ACROSS THE
CT VALLEY AND ALONG E COAST...THOUGH COULD SEE ISOLD ACTIVITY
ANYWHERE. SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...
THE H5 CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON/JAMES BAYS HINTS IN SHIFTING SLOWLY
E ACROSS N QUEBEC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT STILL SEEING LONG
WAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BOTH MON AND
TUE...THOUGH SOME QUESTION ON EXACT TIMING THIS FAR OUT. WILL
REMAIN WARM AND HUMID DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. WILL
LIKELY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ALONG S COAST AND TYPICALLY PRONE
INLAND LOCATIONS WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS. MAY ALSO SEE IFR-LIFR
CIGS MAINLY ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.


ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY 7 OR 8 PM.  OTHERWISE...VFR FOR MOST SITES
EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.
ALSO...CANNOT RULE OUT IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS FAR SE MASS
INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS LOW.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEST OF THE BOSTON TERMINAL...BUT
STILL A LOW RISK THAT SOMETHING COULD DEVELOP THROUGH 8 PM

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.  VERY
LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED THROUGH 8 PM.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. WILL SEE PATCHY
FOG WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAINLY NEAR OR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR-IFR IN FOG IMPROVING
TO VFR BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER...LOW PROB THAT MVFR-IFR IN LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG MAY LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS AFTER 18Z...THEN
SHIFTING E BY EVENING.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI/SE MA AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS N CENTRAL AND W MA INTO N CENTRAL
CT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. LINGERING
SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG ALONG S COAST...
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY THROUGH SAT.
ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS.
LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE  STORMS ACROSS THE ADJACENT SOUTH COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 7 OR
8 PM.  LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED HAIL ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.  ALSO...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING NEAR
THE ISLANDS BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS
TURN WEST.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...EXPECT LIGHT SW WINDS WED NIGHT
INTO THU...THEN PICKING UP DURING THU AFTERNOON. MAY SEE GUSTS TO
20 KT. SEAS 4 FT OR LESS. PATCHY FOG WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING
LOWERING VSBYS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT MAINLY OVER THE OPEN
WATERS. SEAS REACHING AROUND 5 FT. PATCHY FOG ALONG WITH SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS LOWERING VSBYS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT MAY ENTER THE WATERS LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT. SEAS OVER
THE OPEN WATERS UP TO AROUND 5 FT DURING FRI...SUBSIDING FRI
NIGHT BUT MAY BUILD AGAIN SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     MAZ017>024.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     RIZ005>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK/EVT
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 282352
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
752 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

730 PM UPDATE...

LAST OF WEAKENING SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OFF THE RI COAST AND IN THE
VICINITY OF KBID AT 2330Z. THE ISOLD SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED INLAND
W OF KORH AND NEAR KBED HAVE ALSO MOSTLY DISSIPATED. NOTING
LEFTOVER DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THE CONVECTION HANGING ACROSS INTERIOR
MA/RI/NE CT ON LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. SHOULD SEE THOSE
CLOUDS TEND TO DISSIPATE. HOWEVER...MORE CLOUDS MOVE MAY TRAVERSE
ACROSS THE REGION IN THE N-NW FLOW ALOFT OUT OF N NEW ENGLAND AND
UPSTATE NY OVERNIGHT.

NOTING LOW CLOUDS ALREADY AT KACK...SO WILL LIKELY SEE LOW CLOUDS
EXPAND ALONG THE S COAST IN THE SOUPY AIRMASS. PATCHY FOG WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE RAIN FELL THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING.

HAVE UPDATED NEAR TERM FORECAST TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. LOW
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S IN THE OUTLYING
LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF
DOWNTOWN BOSTON AND PROVIDENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
***HOT BUT DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY***

UPPER LEVEL RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DESPITE SOME
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.  850 MB TEMPS AROUND +18C WILL YIELD HIGHS
BETWEEN 90 AND 95 ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN TEMPS A BIT COOLER ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST.
WHILE THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A VERY ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OPTED FOR A DRY
FORECAST.  EVEN IF ONE WERE TO HAPPEN IT PROBABLY WOULD BE VERY
BRIEF AND COVER SUCH A SMALL AREA OF OUR REGION...NOT WORTH A
MENTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AS H5 CUTOFF LOW SETS UP ACROSS HUDSON BAY/ONTARIO/W QUEBEC AND A
NEGATIVE NAO PATTERN IN PLACE...A FAST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN STREAM THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SHORT WAVES IN THIS
FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH TIMING OF
EACH INDIVIDUAL SYSTEM IS IN QUESTION BEYOND FRIDAY DUE TO THE FAST
FLOW. MAY START TO SEE THIS LONG WAVE PATTERN BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS TIMING THIS FAR OUT.

NOTED VERY GOOD CONTINUITY AND TIMING OF APPROACHING SYSTEM LATE
THIS WEEK AMONGST THE MEDIUM MODEL SUITE...THEN TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF SYSTEMS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN QUESTION.  SO...
WENT WITH A BLEND OF 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF OP MODEL RUNS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO AN OVERALL BLEND OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE INCLUDING GEFS/ECENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WHICH GAVE GOOD
CONSISTENCY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL CROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT. WILL SEE
SULTRY CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG WHICH MAY
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S THOUGH A BIT MILDER IN THE URBAN CENTERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
PRETTY VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES ALONG IN W-NW FLOW ALOFT.
CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS ARRIVING AFTER 18Z THU ACROSS THE E
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES THAN PUSHING INTO THE CT VALLEY LATE IN
THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE MOST ACTION WILL OCCUR THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS
FRONT MOVES SLOWLY BUT STEADILY ACROSS. WITH GOOD PUSH OF DRIER
AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT...NOTING PWATS INCREASE TO 1.9 TO 2.1 INCHES
DURING THE NIGHT WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS. ALSO
GOOD ELEVATED CONVECTION SIGNALS...WITH TQ VALUES IN THE LOW 20S
ALONG WITH K INDICES IN THE MID 30S. SPC HAS ALSO MENTIONED
MARGINALLY SEVERE CONDITIONS AS THE PRECIP MOVES INTO FAR WESTERN
AREAS LATE IN THE DAY. SOMETHING TO BE WATCHED.

HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
ALSO USED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

EXPECT FRONT TO CLEAR THE COAST FRI MORNING. ISOLD THUNDER MAY
LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING AS BEST INSTABILITY MOVES OFFSHORE.
SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS UNTIL AROUND
MIDDAY THEN SHOULD EXIT. NOTING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE HUMID
CONDITIONS AS DEWPTS FALL BACK TO THE 50S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM THOUGH...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER-
MID 80S.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND COMFORTABLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND W MA INTO N CT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 60S...THOUGH MAY
LINGER AROUND 70 ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
NOTING ANOTHER DIP IN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES IN THE UPPER FLOW. OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVING
TROUBLE HANDLING THIS FEATURE...THOUGH DOES LOOK LIKE THERE MAY BE
SOME ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AS WEAK FRONT CROSSES SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN MORNING. LOOKS LIKE BEST SHOT FOR NOW WILL BE ACROSS THE
CT VALLEY AND ALONG E COAST...THOUGH COULD SEE ISOLD ACTIVITY
ANYWHERE. SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...
THE H5 CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON/JAMES BAYS HINTS IN SHIFTING SLOWLY
E ACROSS N QUEBEC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT STILL SEEING LONG
WAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BOTH MON AND
TUE...THOUGH SOME QUESTION ON EXACT TIMING THIS FAR OUT. WILL
REMAIN WARM AND HUMID DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. WILL
LIKELY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ALONG S COAST AND TYPICALLY PRONE
INLAND LOCATIONS WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS. MAY ALSO SEE IFR-LIFR
CIGS MAINLY ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.


ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY 7 OR 8 PM.  OTHERWISE...VFR FOR MOST SITES
EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.
ALSO...CANNOT RULE OUT IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS FAR SE MASS
INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS LOW.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEST OF THE BOSTON TERMINAL...BUT
STILL A LOW RISK THAT SOMETHING COULD DEVELOP THROUGH 8 PM

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.  VERY
LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED THROUGH 8 PM.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. WILL SEE PATCHY
FOG WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAINLY NEAR OR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR-IFR IN FOG IMPROVING
TO VFR BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER...LOW PROB THAT MVFR-IFR IN LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG MAY LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS AFTER 18Z...THEN
SHIFTING E BY EVENING.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI/SE MA AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS N CENTRAL AND W MA INTO N CENTRAL
CT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. LINGERING
SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG ALONG S COAST...
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY THROUGH SAT.
ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS.
LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE  STORMS ACROSS THE ADJACENT SOUTH COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 7 OR
8 PM.  LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED HAIL ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.  ALSO...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING NEAR
THE ISLANDS BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS
TURN WEST.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...EXPECT LIGHT SW WINDS WED NIGHT
INTO THU...THEN PICKING UP DURING THU AFTERNOON. MAY SEE GUSTS TO
20 KT. SEAS 4 FT OR LESS. PATCHY FOG WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING
LOWERING VSBYS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT MAINLY OVER THE OPEN
WATERS. SEAS REACHING AROUND 5 FT. PATCHY FOG ALONG WITH SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS LOWERING VSBYS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT MAY ENTER THE WATERS LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT. SEAS OVER
THE OPEN WATERS UP TO AROUND 5 FT DURING FRI...SUBSIDING FRI
NIGHT BUT MAY BUILD AGAIN SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     MAZ017>024.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     RIZ005>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK/EVT
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 282111
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
510 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

5 PM MESOSCALE UPDATE...

WE ARE MONITORING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN THE TIVERTON...MELVILLE AND NEWPORT
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST IN THE NEXT 30 TO 45 MINUTES.  ALSO...HEAVY
RAINFALL HAS RESULTED IN POCKETS OF URBAN/STREET FLOODING IN THE
MARION AND FALL RIVER AREAS.

THE STORMS ALONG THE SOUTH COASTS OF RHODE ISLAND/MASSACHUSETTS
WERE THE PRETTY MUCH THE ONLY SHOW IN TOWN.  WE STILL HAVE TO
WATCH A FEW THINGS THROUGH 7 OR 8 PM.  THE FIRST IS THE SEA BREEZE
FRONT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MA.  THE OTHER IS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT
HAS PUSHED INTO NORTHWEST RI AND CENTRAL MA.  WINDOW IS GETTING
SHORTER...BUT STILL FAIRLY UNSTABLE SO CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO FIRING ON ONE OF THE BOUNDARIES.

AFTER 7 OR 8 PM...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT.  WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  LOW TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S IN THE OUTLYING LOCATIONS WITH
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF DOWNTOWN BOSTON
AND PROVIDENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
***HOT BUT DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY***

UPPER LEVEL RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DESPITE SOME
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.  850 MB TEMPS AROUND +18C WILL YIELD HIGHS
BETWEEN 90 AND 95 ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN TEMPS A BIT COOLER ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST.
WHILE THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A VERY ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OPTED FOR A DRY
FORECAST.  EVEN IF ONE WERE TO HAPPEN IT PROBABLY WOULD BE VERY
BRIEF AND COVER SUCH A SMALL AREA OF OUR REGION...NOT WORTH A
MENTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AS H5 CUTOFF LOW SETS UP ACROSS HUDSON BAY/ONTARIO/W QUEBEC AND A
NEGATIVE NAO PATTERN IN PLACE...A FAST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN STREAM THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SHORT WAVES IN THIS
FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH TIMING OF
EACH INDIVIDUAL SYSTEM IS IN QUESTION BEYOND FRIDAY DUE TO THE FAST
FLOW. MAY START TO SEE THIS LONG WAVE PATTERN BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS TIMING THIS FAR OUT.

NOTED VERY GOOD CONTINUITY AND TIMING OF APPROACHING SYSTEM LATE
THIS WEEK AMONGST THE MEDIUM MODEL SUITE...THEN TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF SYSTEMS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN QUESTION.  SO...
WENT WITH A BLEND OF 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF OP MODEL RUNS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO AN OVERALL BLEND OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE INCLUDING GEFS/ECENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WHICH GAVE GOOD
CONSISTENCY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL CROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT. WILL SEE
SULTRY CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG WHICH MAY
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S THOUGH A BIT MILDER IN THE URBAN CENTERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
PRETTY VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES ALONG IN W-NW FLOW ALOFT.
CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS ARRIVING AFTER 18Z THU ACROSS THE E
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES THAN PUSHING INTO THE CT VALLEY LATE IN
THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE MOST ACTION WILL OCCUR THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS
FRONT MOVES SLOWLY BUT STEADILY ACROSS. WITH GOOD PUSH OF DRIER
AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT...NOTING PWATS INCREASE TO 1.9 TO 2.1 INCHES
DURING THE NIGHT WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS. ALSO
GOOD ELEVATED CONVECTION SIGNALS...WITH TQ VALUES IN THE LOW 20S
ALONG WITH K INDICES IN THE MID 30S. SPC HAS ALSO MENTIONED
MARGINALLY SEVERE CONDITIONS AS THE PRECIP MOVES INTO FAR WESTERN
AREAS LATE IN THE DAY. SOMETHING TO BE WATCHED.

HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
ALSO USED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

EXPECT FRONT TO CLEAR THE COAST FRI MORNING. ISOLD THUNDER MAY
LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING AS BEST INSTABILITY MOVES OFFSHORE.
SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS UNTIL AROUND
MIDDAY THEN SHOULD EXIT. NOTING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE HUMID
CONDITIONS AS DEWPTS FALL BACK TO THE 50S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM THOUGH...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER-
MID 80S.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND COMFORTABLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND W MA INTO N CT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 60S...THOUGH MAY
LINGER AROUND 70 ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
NOTING ANOTHER DIP IN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES IN THE UPPER FLOW. OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVING
TROUBLE HANDLING THIS FEATURE...THOUGH DOES LOOK LIKE THERE MAY BE
SOME ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AS WEAK FRONT CROSSES SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN MORNING. LOOKS LIKE BEST SHOT FOR NOW WILL BE ACROSS THE
CT VALLEY AND ALONG E COAST...THOUGH COULD SEE ISOLD ACTIVITY
ANYWHERE. SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...
THE H5 CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON/JAMES BAYS HINTS IN SHIFTING SLOWLY
E ACROSS N QUEBEC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT STILL SEEING LONG
WAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BOTH MON AND
TUE...THOUGH SOME QUESTION ON EXACT TIMING THIS FAR OUT. WILL
REMAIN WARM AND HUMID DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE EXCEPT FOR SOME
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES ON THE ISLANDS.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
BUT HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
EVENING WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED LOWER CONDITIONS.  ACTIVITY WILL BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...SO MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY.  BULK
OF ACTION SHOULD BE ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MA...RHODE ISLAND AND
PERHAPS FAR EASTERN CT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY 7 OR 8 PM.  OTHERWISE...VFR FOR MOST SITES
EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.
ALSO...CANNOT RULE OUT IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS FAR SE MASS
INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS LOW.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEST OF THE BOSTON TERMINAL...BUT
STILL A LOW RISK THAT SOMETHING COULD DEVELOP THROUGH 8 PM

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.  VERY
LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED THROUGH 8 PM.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. WILL SEE PATCHY
FOG WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAINLY NEAR OR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR-IFR IN FOG IMPROVING
TO VFR BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER...LOW PROB THAT MVFR-IFR IN LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG MAY LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS AFTER 18Z...THEN
SHIFTING E BY EVENING.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI/SE MA AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS N CENTRAL AND W MA INTO N CENTRAL
CT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. LINGERING
SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG ALONG S COAST...
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY THROUGH SAT.
ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS.
LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE  STORMS ACROSS THE ADJACENT SOUTH COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 7 OR
8 PM.  LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED HAIL ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.  ALSO...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING NEAR
THE ISLANDS BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS
TURN WEST.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...EXPECT LIGHT SW WINDS WED NIGHT
INTO THU...THEN PICKING UP DURING THU AFTERNOON. MAY SEE GUSTS TO
20 KT. SEAS 4 FT OR LESS. PATCHY FOG WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING
LOWERING VSBYS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT MAINLY OVER THE OPEN
WATERS. SEAS REACHING AROUND 5 FT. PATCHY FOG ALONG WITH SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS LOWERING VSBYS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT MAY ENTER THE WATERS LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT. SEAS OVER
THE OPEN WATERS UP TO AROUND 5 FT DURING FRI...SUBSIDING FRI
NIGHT BUT MAY BUILD AGAIN SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     MAZ017>024.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     RIZ005>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 282111
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
510 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

5 PM MESOSCALE UPDATE...

WE ARE MONITORING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN THE TIVERTON...MELVILLE AND NEWPORT
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST IN THE NEXT 30 TO 45 MINUTES.  ALSO...HEAVY
RAINFALL HAS RESULTED IN POCKETS OF URBAN/STREET FLOODING IN THE
MARION AND FALL RIVER AREAS.

THE STORMS ALONG THE SOUTH COASTS OF RHODE ISLAND/MASSACHUSETTS
WERE THE PRETTY MUCH THE ONLY SHOW IN TOWN.  WE STILL HAVE TO
WATCH A FEW THINGS THROUGH 7 OR 8 PM.  THE FIRST IS THE SEA BREEZE
FRONT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MA.  THE OTHER IS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT
HAS PUSHED INTO NORTHWEST RI AND CENTRAL MA.  WINDOW IS GETTING
SHORTER...BUT STILL FAIRLY UNSTABLE SO CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO FIRING ON ONE OF THE BOUNDARIES.

AFTER 7 OR 8 PM...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT.  WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  LOW TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S IN THE OUTLYING LOCATIONS WITH
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF DOWNTOWN BOSTON
AND PROVIDENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
***HOT BUT DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY***

UPPER LEVEL RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DESPITE SOME
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.  850 MB TEMPS AROUND +18C WILL YIELD HIGHS
BETWEEN 90 AND 95 ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN TEMPS A BIT COOLER ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST.
WHILE THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A VERY ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OPTED FOR A DRY
FORECAST.  EVEN IF ONE WERE TO HAPPEN IT PROBABLY WOULD BE VERY
BRIEF AND COVER SUCH A SMALL AREA OF OUR REGION...NOT WORTH A
MENTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AS H5 CUTOFF LOW SETS UP ACROSS HUDSON BAY/ONTARIO/W QUEBEC AND A
NEGATIVE NAO PATTERN IN PLACE...A FAST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN STREAM THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SHORT WAVES IN THIS
FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH TIMING OF
EACH INDIVIDUAL SYSTEM IS IN QUESTION BEYOND FRIDAY DUE TO THE FAST
FLOW. MAY START TO SEE THIS LONG WAVE PATTERN BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS TIMING THIS FAR OUT.

NOTED VERY GOOD CONTINUITY AND TIMING OF APPROACHING SYSTEM LATE
THIS WEEK AMONGST THE MEDIUM MODEL SUITE...THEN TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF SYSTEMS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN QUESTION.  SO...
WENT WITH A BLEND OF 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF OP MODEL RUNS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO AN OVERALL BLEND OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE INCLUDING GEFS/ECENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WHICH GAVE GOOD
CONSISTENCY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL CROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT. WILL SEE
SULTRY CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG WHICH MAY
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S THOUGH A BIT MILDER IN THE URBAN CENTERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
PRETTY VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES ALONG IN W-NW FLOW ALOFT.
CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS ARRIVING AFTER 18Z THU ACROSS THE E
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES THAN PUSHING INTO THE CT VALLEY LATE IN
THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE MOST ACTION WILL OCCUR THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS
FRONT MOVES SLOWLY BUT STEADILY ACROSS. WITH GOOD PUSH OF DRIER
AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT...NOTING PWATS INCREASE TO 1.9 TO 2.1 INCHES
DURING THE NIGHT WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS. ALSO
GOOD ELEVATED CONVECTION SIGNALS...WITH TQ VALUES IN THE LOW 20S
ALONG WITH K INDICES IN THE MID 30S. SPC HAS ALSO MENTIONED
MARGINALLY SEVERE CONDITIONS AS THE PRECIP MOVES INTO FAR WESTERN
AREAS LATE IN THE DAY. SOMETHING TO BE WATCHED.

HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
ALSO USED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

EXPECT FRONT TO CLEAR THE COAST FRI MORNING. ISOLD THUNDER MAY
LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING AS BEST INSTABILITY MOVES OFFSHORE.
SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS UNTIL AROUND
MIDDAY THEN SHOULD EXIT. NOTING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE HUMID
CONDITIONS AS DEWPTS FALL BACK TO THE 50S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM THOUGH...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER-
MID 80S.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND COMFORTABLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND W MA INTO N CT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 60S...THOUGH MAY
LINGER AROUND 70 ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
NOTING ANOTHER DIP IN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES IN THE UPPER FLOW. OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVING
TROUBLE HANDLING THIS FEATURE...THOUGH DOES LOOK LIKE THERE MAY BE
SOME ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AS WEAK FRONT CROSSES SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN MORNING. LOOKS LIKE BEST SHOT FOR NOW WILL BE ACROSS THE
CT VALLEY AND ALONG E COAST...THOUGH COULD SEE ISOLD ACTIVITY
ANYWHERE. SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...
THE H5 CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON/JAMES BAYS HINTS IN SHIFTING SLOWLY
E ACROSS N QUEBEC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT STILL SEEING LONG
WAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BOTH MON AND
TUE...THOUGH SOME QUESTION ON EXACT TIMING THIS FAR OUT. WILL
REMAIN WARM AND HUMID DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE EXCEPT FOR SOME
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES ON THE ISLANDS.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
BUT HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
EVENING WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED LOWER CONDITIONS.  ACTIVITY WILL BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...SO MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY.  BULK
OF ACTION SHOULD BE ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MA...RHODE ISLAND AND
PERHAPS FAR EASTERN CT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY 7 OR 8 PM.  OTHERWISE...VFR FOR MOST SITES
EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.
ALSO...CANNOT RULE OUT IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS FAR SE MASS
INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS LOW.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEST OF THE BOSTON TERMINAL...BUT
STILL A LOW RISK THAT SOMETHING COULD DEVELOP THROUGH 8 PM

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.  VERY
LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED THROUGH 8 PM.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. WILL SEE PATCHY
FOG WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAINLY NEAR OR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR-IFR IN FOG IMPROVING
TO VFR BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER...LOW PROB THAT MVFR-IFR IN LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG MAY LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS AFTER 18Z...THEN
SHIFTING E BY EVENING.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI/SE MA AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS N CENTRAL AND W MA INTO N CENTRAL
CT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. LINGERING
SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG ALONG S COAST...
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY THROUGH SAT.
ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS.
LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE  STORMS ACROSS THE ADJACENT SOUTH COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 7 OR
8 PM.  LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED HAIL ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.  ALSO...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING NEAR
THE ISLANDS BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS
TURN WEST.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...EXPECT LIGHT SW WINDS WED NIGHT
INTO THU...THEN PICKING UP DURING THU AFTERNOON. MAY SEE GUSTS TO
20 KT. SEAS 4 FT OR LESS. PATCHY FOG WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING
LOWERING VSBYS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT MAINLY OVER THE OPEN
WATERS. SEAS REACHING AROUND 5 FT. PATCHY FOG ALONG WITH SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS LOWERING VSBYS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT MAY ENTER THE WATERS LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT. SEAS OVER
THE OPEN WATERS UP TO AROUND 5 FT DURING FRI...SUBSIDING FRI
NIGHT BUT MAY BUILD AGAIN SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     MAZ017>024.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     RIZ005>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 282056
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
456 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
***A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING MAINLY
  CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MA INTO RHODE ISLAND AND PERHAPS FAR EASTERN
  CT***

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.  THIS IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL HEATING RESULTING IN MLCAPES
OF 1500 TO 2000...SOME SEA BREEZE/OUTFLOW INTERSECTIONS AND A
SHORTWAVE PASSING EAST OF THE REGION.  WHILE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OCCURRED ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES EARLIER...MAIN FOCUS FOR
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MA...AS WELL AS RHODE
ISLAND AND PERHAPS INTO FAR EASTERN CT.  THIS FROM SEA BREEZE AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ALONG WITH TERRAIN INFLUENCES.  A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE AND PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING.  ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN BY
7 OR 8 PM OR SO THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS...HEIGHTS RISE AND
INSTABILITY DIMINISHES.

OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.  WILL
LIKELY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S IN THE OUTLYING LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S IN THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF DOWNTOWN BOSTON AND
PROVIDENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
***HOT BUT DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY***

UPPER LEVEL RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DESPITE SOME
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.  850 MB TEMPS AROUND +18C WILL YIELD HIGHS
BETWEEN 90 AND 95 ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN TEMPS A BIT COOLER ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST.
WHILE THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A VERY ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OPTED FOR A DRY
FORECAST.  EVEN IF ONE WERE TO HAPPEN IT PROBABLY WOULD BE VERY
BRIEF AND COVER SUCH A SMALL AREA OF OUR REGION...NOT WORTH A
MENTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AS H5 CUTOFF LOW SETS UP ACROSS HUDSON BAY/ONTARIO/W QUEBEC AND A
NEGATIVE NAO PATTERN IN PLACE...A FAST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN STREAM THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SHORT WAVES IN THIS
FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH TIMING OF
EACH INDIVIDUAL SYSTEM IS IN QUESTION BEYOND FRIDAY DUE TO THE FAST
FLOW. MAY START TO SEE THIS LONG WAVE PATTERN BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS TIMING THIS FAR OUT.

NOTED VERY GOOD CONTINUITY AND TIMING OF APPROACHING SYSTEM LATE
THIS WEEK AMONGST THE MEDIUM MODEL SUITE...THEN TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF SYSTEMS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN QUESTION.  SO...
WENT WITH A BLEND OF 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF OP MODEL RUNS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO AN OVERALL BLEND OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE INCLUDING GEFS/ECENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WHICH GAVE GOOD
CONSISTENCY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL CROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT. WILL SEE
SULTRY CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG WHICH MAY
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S THOUGH A BIT MILDER IN THE URBAN CENTERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
PRETTY VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES ALONG IN W-NW FLOW ALOFT.
CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS ARRIVING AFTER 18Z THU ACROSS THE E
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES THAN PUSHING INTO THE CT VALLEY LATE IN
THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE MOST ACTION WILL OCCUR THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS
FRONT MOVES SLOWLY BUT STEADILY ACROSS. WITH GOOD PUSH OF DRIER
AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT...NOTING PWATS INCREASE TO 1.9 TO 2.1 INCHES
DURING THE NIGHT WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS. ALSO
GOOD ELEVATED CONVECTION SIGNALS...WITH TQ VALUES IN THE LOW 20S
ALONG WITH K INDICES IN THE MID 30S. SPC HAS ALSO MENTIONED
MARGINALLY SEVERE CONDITIONS AS THE PRECIP MOVES INTO FAR WESTERN
AREAS LATE IN THE DAY. SOMETHING TO BE WATCHED.

HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
ALSO USED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

EXPECT FRONT TO CLEAR THE COAST FRI MORNING. ISOLD THUNDER MAY
LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING AS BEST INSTABILITY MOVES OFFSHORE.
SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS UNTIL AROUND
MIDDAY THEN SHOULD EXIT. NOTING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE HUMID
CONDITIONS AS DEWPTS FALL BACK TO THE 50S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM THOUGH...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER-
MID 80S.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND COMFORTABLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND W MA INTO N CT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 60S...THOUGH MAY
LINGER AROUND 70 ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
NOTING ANOTHER DIP IN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES IN THE UPPER FLOW. OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVING
TROUBLE HANDLING THIS FEATURE...THOUGH DOES LOOK LIKE THERE MAY BE
SOME ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AS WEAK FRONT CROSSES SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN MORNING. LOOKS LIKE BEST SHOT FOR NOW WILL BE ACROSS THE
CT VALLEY AND ALONG E COAST...THOUGH COULD SEE ISOLD ACTIVITY
ANYWHERE. SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...
THE H5 CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON/JAMES BAYS HINTS IN SHIFTING SLOWLY
E ACROSS N QUEBEC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT STILL SEEING LONG
WAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BOTH MON AND
TUE...THOUGH SOME QUESTION ON EXACT TIMING THIS FAR OUT. WILL
REMAIN WARM AND HUMID DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE EXCEPT FOR SOME
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES ON THE ISLANDS.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
BUT HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
EVENING WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED LOWER CONDITIONS.  ACTIVITY WILL BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...SO MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY.  BULK
OF ACTION SHOULD BE ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MA...RHODE ISLAND AND
PERHAPS FAR EASTERN CT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY 7 OR 8 PM.  OTHERWISE...VFR FOR MOST SITES
EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.
ALSO...CANNOT RULE OUT IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS FAR SE MASS
INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS LOW.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEST OF THE BOSTON TERMINAL...BUT
STILL A LOW RISK THAT SOMETHING COULD DEVELOP THROUGH 8 PM

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.  VERY
LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED THROUGH 8 PM.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. WILL SEE PATCHY
FOG WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAINLY NEAR OR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR-IFR IN FOG IMPROVING
TO VFR BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER...LOW PROB THAT MVFR-IFR IN LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG MAY LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS AFTER 18Z...THEN
SHIFTING E BY EVENING.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI/SE MA AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS N CENTRAL AND W MA INTO N CENTRAL
CT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. LINGERING
SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG ALONG S COAST...
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY THROUGH SAT.
ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS.
LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE  STORMS ACROSS THE ADJACENT SOUTH COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 7 OR
8 PM.  LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED HAIL ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.  ALSO...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING NEAR
THE ISLANDS BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS
TURN WEST.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...EXPECT LIGHT SW WINDS WED NIGHT
INTO THU...THEN PICKING UP DURING THU AFTERNOON. MAY SEE GUSTS TO
20 KT. SEAS 4 FT OR LESS. PATCHY FOG WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING
LOWERING VSBYS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT MAINLY OVER THE OPEN
WATERS. SEAS REACHING AROUND 5 FT. PATCHY FOG ALONG WITH SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS LOWERING VSBYS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT MAY ENTER THE WATERS LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT. SEAS OVER
THE OPEN WATERS UP TO AROUND 5 FT DURING FRI...SUBSIDING FRI
NIGHT BUT MAY BUILD AGAIN SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     MAZ017>024.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     RIZ005>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 282056
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
456 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
***A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING MAINLY
  CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MA INTO RHODE ISLAND AND PERHAPS FAR EASTERN
  CT***

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.  THIS IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL HEATING RESULTING IN MLCAPES
OF 1500 TO 2000...SOME SEA BREEZE/OUTFLOW INTERSECTIONS AND A
SHORTWAVE PASSING EAST OF THE REGION.  WHILE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OCCURRED ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES EARLIER...MAIN FOCUS FOR
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MA...AS WELL AS RHODE
ISLAND AND PERHAPS INTO FAR EASTERN CT.  THIS FROM SEA BREEZE AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ALONG WITH TERRAIN INFLUENCES.  A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE AND PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING.  ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN BY
7 OR 8 PM OR SO THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS...HEIGHTS RISE AND
INSTABILITY DIMINISHES.

OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.  WILL
LIKELY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S IN THE OUTLYING LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S IN THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF DOWNTOWN BOSTON AND
PROVIDENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
***HOT BUT DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY***

UPPER LEVEL RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DESPITE SOME
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.  850 MB TEMPS AROUND +18C WILL YIELD HIGHS
BETWEEN 90 AND 95 ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN TEMPS A BIT COOLER ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST.
WHILE THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A VERY ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OPTED FOR A DRY
FORECAST.  EVEN IF ONE WERE TO HAPPEN IT PROBABLY WOULD BE VERY
BRIEF AND COVER SUCH A SMALL AREA OF OUR REGION...NOT WORTH A
MENTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AS H5 CUTOFF LOW SETS UP ACROSS HUDSON BAY/ONTARIO/W QUEBEC AND A
NEGATIVE NAO PATTERN IN PLACE...A FAST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN STREAM THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SHORT WAVES IN THIS
FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH TIMING OF
EACH INDIVIDUAL SYSTEM IS IN QUESTION BEYOND FRIDAY DUE TO THE FAST
FLOW. MAY START TO SEE THIS LONG WAVE PATTERN BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS TIMING THIS FAR OUT.

NOTED VERY GOOD CONTINUITY AND TIMING OF APPROACHING SYSTEM LATE
THIS WEEK AMONGST THE MEDIUM MODEL SUITE...THEN TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF SYSTEMS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN QUESTION.  SO...
WENT WITH A BLEND OF 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF OP MODEL RUNS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO AN OVERALL BLEND OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE INCLUDING GEFS/ECENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WHICH GAVE GOOD
CONSISTENCY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL CROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT. WILL SEE
SULTRY CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG WHICH MAY
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S THOUGH A BIT MILDER IN THE URBAN CENTERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
PRETTY VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES ALONG IN W-NW FLOW ALOFT.
CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS ARRIVING AFTER 18Z THU ACROSS THE E
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES THAN PUSHING INTO THE CT VALLEY LATE IN
THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE MOST ACTION WILL OCCUR THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS
FRONT MOVES SLOWLY BUT STEADILY ACROSS. WITH GOOD PUSH OF DRIER
AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT...NOTING PWATS INCREASE TO 1.9 TO 2.1 INCHES
DURING THE NIGHT WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS. ALSO
GOOD ELEVATED CONVECTION SIGNALS...WITH TQ VALUES IN THE LOW 20S
ALONG WITH K INDICES IN THE MID 30S. SPC HAS ALSO MENTIONED
MARGINALLY SEVERE CONDITIONS AS THE PRECIP MOVES INTO FAR WESTERN
AREAS LATE IN THE DAY. SOMETHING TO BE WATCHED.

HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
ALSO USED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

EXPECT FRONT TO CLEAR THE COAST FRI MORNING. ISOLD THUNDER MAY
LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING AS BEST INSTABILITY MOVES OFFSHORE.
SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS UNTIL AROUND
MIDDAY THEN SHOULD EXIT. NOTING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE HUMID
CONDITIONS AS DEWPTS FALL BACK TO THE 50S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM THOUGH...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER-
MID 80S.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND COMFORTABLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND W MA INTO N CT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 60S...THOUGH MAY
LINGER AROUND 70 ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
NOTING ANOTHER DIP IN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES IN THE UPPER FLOW. OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVING
TROUBLE HANDLING THIS FEATURE...THOUGH DOES LOOK LIKE THERE MAY BE
SOME ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AS WEAK FRONT CROSSES SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN MORNING. LOOKS LIKE BEST SHOT FOR NOW WILL BE ACROSS THE
CT VALLEY AND ALONG E COAST...THOUGH COULD SEE ISOLD ACTIVITY
ANYWHERE. SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...
THE H5 CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON/JAMES BAYS HINTS IN SHIFTING SLOWLY
E ACROSS N QUEBEC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT STILL SEEING LONG
WAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BOTH MON AND
TUE...THOUGH SOME QUESTION ON EXACT TIMING THIS FAR OUT. WILL
REMAIN WARM AND HUMID DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE EXCEPT FOR SOME
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES ON THE ISLANDS.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
BUT HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
EVENING WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED LOWER CONDITIONS.  ACTIVITY WILL BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...SO MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY.  BULK
OF ACTION SHOULD BE ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MA...RHODE ISLAND AND
PERHAPS FAR EASTERN CT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY 7 OR 8 PM.  OTHERWISE...VFR FOR MOST SITES
EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.
ALSO...CANNOT RULE OUT IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS FAR SE MASS
INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS LOW.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEST OF THE BOSTON TERMINAL...BUT
STILL A LOW RISK THAT SOMETHING COULD DEVELOP THROUGH 8 PM

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.  VERY
LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED THROUGH 8 PM.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. WILL SEE PATCHY
FOG WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAINLY NEAR OR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR-IFR IN FOG IMPROVING
TO VFR BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER...LOW PROB THAT MVFR-IFR IN LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG MAY LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS AFTER 18Z...THEN
SHIFTING E BY EVENING.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI/SE MA AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS N CENTRAL AND W MA INTO N CENTRAL
CT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. LINGERING
SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG ALONG S COAST...
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY THROUGH SAT.
ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS.
LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE  STORMS ACROSS THE ADJACENT SOUTH COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 7 OR
8 PM.  LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED HAIL ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.  ALSO...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING NEAR
THE ISLANDS BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS
TURN WEST.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...EXPECT LIGHT SW WINDS WED NIGHT
INTO THU...THEN PICKING UP DURING THU AFTERNOON. MAY SEE GUSTS TO
20 KT. SEAS 4 FT OR LESS. PATCHY FOG WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING
LOWERING VSBYS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT MAINLY OVER THE OPEN
WATERS. SEAS REACHING AROUND 5 FT. PATCHY FOG ALONG WITH SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS LOWERING VSBYS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT MAY ENTER THE WATERS LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT. SEAS OVER
THE OPEN WATERS UP TO AROUND 5 FT DURING FRI...SUBSIDING FRI
NIGHT BUT MAY BUILD AGAIN SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     MAZ017>024.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     RIZ005>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 282056
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
456 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
***A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING MAINLY
  CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MA INTO RHODE ISLAND AND PERHAPS FAR EASTERN
  CT***

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.  THIS IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL HEATING RESULTING IN MLCAPES
OF 1500 TO 2000...SOME SEA BREEZE/OUTFLOW INTERSECTIONS AND A
SHORTWAVE PASSING EAST OF THE REGION.  WHILE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OCCURRED ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES EARLIER...MAIN FOCUS FOR
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MA...AS WELL AS RHODE
ISLAND AND PERHAPS INTO FAR EASTERN CT.  THIS FROM SEA BREEZE AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ALONG WITH TERRAIN INFLUENCES.  A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE AND PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING.  ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN BY
7 OR 8 PM OR SO THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS...HEIGHTS RISE AND
INSTABILITY DIMINISHES.

OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.  WILL
LIKELY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S IN THE OUTLYING LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S IN THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF DOWNTOWN BOSTON AND
PROVIDENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
***HOT BUT DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY***

UPPER LEVEL RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DESPITE SOME
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.  850 MB TEMPS AROUND +18C WILL YIELD HIGHS
BETWEEN 90 AND 95 ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN TEMPS A BIT COOLER ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST.
WHILE THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A VERY ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OPTED FOR A DRY
FORECAST.  EVEN IF ONE WERE TO HAPPEN IT PROBABLY WOULD BE VERY
BRIEF AND COVER SUCH A SMALL AREA OF OUR REGION...NOT WORTH A
MENTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AS H5 CUTOFF LOW SETS UP ACROSS HUDSON BAY/ONTARIO/W QUEBEC AND A
NEGATIVE NAO PATTERN IN PLACE...A FAST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN STREAM THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SHORT WAVES IN THIS
FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH TIMING OF
EACH INDIVIDUAL SYSTEM IS IN QUESTION BEYOND FRIDAY DUE TO THE FAST
FLOW. MAY START TO SEE THIS LONG WAVE PATTERN BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS TIMING THIS FAR OUT.

NOTED VERY GOOD CONTINUITY AND TIMING OF APPROACHING SYSTEM LATE
THIS WEEK AMONGST THE MEDIUM MODEL SUITE...THEN TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF SYSTEMS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN QUESTION.  SO...
WENT WITH A BLEND OF 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF OP MODEL RUNS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO AN OVERALL BLEND OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE INCLUDING GEFS/ECENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WHICH GAVE GOOD
CONSISTENCY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL CROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT. WILL SEE
SULTRY CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG WHICH MAY
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S THOUGH A BIT MILDER IN THE URBAN CENTERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
PRETTY VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES ALONG IN W-NW FLOW ALOFT.
CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS ARRIVING AFTER 18Z THU ACROSS THE E
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES THAN PUSHING INTO THE CT VALLEY LATE IN
THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE MOST ACTION WILL OCCUR THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS
FRONT MOVES SLOWLY BUT STEADILY ACROSS. WITH GOOD PUSH OF DRIER
AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT...NOTING PWATS INCREASE TO 1.9 TO 2.1 INCHES
DURING THE NIGHT WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS. ALSO
GOOD ELEVATED CONVECTION SIGNALS...WITH TQ VALUES IN THE LOW 20S
ALONG WITH K INDICES IN THE MID 30S. SPC HAS ALSO MENTIONED
MARGINALLY SEVERE CONDITIONS AS THE PRECIP MOVES INTO FAR WESTERN
AREAS LATE IN THE DAY. SOMETHING TO BE WATCHED.

HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
ALSO USED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

EXPECT FRONT TO CLEAR THE COAST FRI MORNING. ISOLD THUNDER MAY
LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING AS BEST INSTABILITY MOVES OFFSHORE.
SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS UNTIL AROUND
MIDDAY THEN SHOULD EXIT. NOTING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE HUMID
CONDITIONS AS DEWPTS FALL BACK TO THE 50S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM THOUGH...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER-
MID 80S.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND COMFORTABLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND W MA INTO N CT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 60S...THOUGH MAY
LINGER AROUND 70 ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
NOTING ANOTHER DIP IN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES IN THE UPPER FLOW. OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVING
TROUBLE HANDLING THIS FEATURE...THOUGH DOES LOOK LIKE THERE MAY BE
SOME ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AS WEAK FRONT CROSSES SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN MORNING. LOOKS LIKE BEST SHOT FOR NOW WILL BE ACROSS THE
CT VALLEY AND ALONG E COAST...THOUGH COULD SEE ISOLD ACTIVITY
ANYWHERE. SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...
THE H5 CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON/JAMES BAYS HINTS IN SHIFTING SLOWLY
E ACROSS N QUEBEC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT STILL SEEING LONG
WAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BOTH MON AND
TUE...THOUGH SOME QUESTION ON EXACT TIMING THIS FAR OUT. WILL
REMAIN WARM AND HUMID DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE EXCEPT FOR SOME
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES ON THE ISLANDS.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
BUT HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
EVENING WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED LOWER CONDITIONS.  ACTIVITY WILL BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...SO MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY.  BULK
OF ACTION SHOULD BE ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MA...RHODE ISLAND AND
PERHAPS FAR EASTERN CT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY 7 OR 8 PM.  OTHERWISE...VFR FOR MOST SITES
EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.
ALSO...CANNOT RULE OUT IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS FAR SE MASS
INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS LOW.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEST OF THE BOSTON TERMINAL...BUT
STILL A LOW RISK THAT SOMETHING COULD DEVELOP THROUGH 8 PM

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.  VERY
LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED THROUGH 8 PM.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. WILL SEE PATCHY
FOG WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAINLY NEAR OR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR-IFR IN FOG IMPROVING
TO VFR BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER...LOW PROB THAT MVFR-IFR IN LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG MAY LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS AFTER 18Z...THEN
SHIFTING E BY EVENING.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI/SE MA AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS N CENTRAL AND W MA INTO N CENTRAL
CT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. LINGERING
SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG ALONG S COAST...
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY THROUGH SAT.
ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS.
LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE  STORMS ACROSS THE ADJACENT SOUTH COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 7 OR
8 PM.  LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED HAIL ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.  ALSO...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING NEAR
THE ISLANDS BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS
TURN WEST.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...EXPECT LIGHT SW WINDS WED NIGHT
INTO THU...THEN PICKING UP DURING THU AFTERNOON. MAY SEE GUSTS TO
20 KT. SEAS 4 FT OR LESS. PATCHY FOG WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING
LOWERING VSBYS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT MAINLY OVER THE OPEN
WATERS. SEAS REACHING AROUND 5 FT. PATCHY FOG ALONG WITH SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS LOWERING VSBYS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT MAY ENTER THE WATERS LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT. SEAS OVER
THE OPEN WATERS UP TO AROUND 5 FT DURING FRI...SUBSIDING FRI
NIGHT BUT MAY BUILD AGAIN SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     MAZ017>024.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     RIZ005>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 282056
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
456 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
***A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING MAINLY
  CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MA INTO RHODE ISLAND AND PERHAPS FAR EASTERN
  CT***

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.  THIS IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL HEATING RESULTING IN MLCAPES
OF 1500 TO 2000...SOME SEA BREEZE/OUTFLOW INTERSECTIONS AND A
SHORTWAVE PASSING EAST OF THE REGION.  WHILE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OCCURRED ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES EARLIER...MAIN FOCUS FOR
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MA...AS WELL AS RHODE
ISLAND AND PERHAPS INTO FAR EASTERN CT.  THIS FROM SEA BREEZE AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ALONG WITH TERRAIN INFLUENCES.  A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE AND PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING.  ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN BY
7 OR 8 PM OR SO THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS...HEIGHTS RISE AND
INSTABILITY DIMINISHES.

OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.  WILL
LIKELY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S IN THE OUTLYING LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S IN THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF DOWNTOWN BOSTON AND
PROVIDENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
***HOT BUT DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY***

UPPER LEVEL RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DESPITE SOME
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.  850 MB TEMPS AROUND +18C WILL YIELD HIGHS
BETWEEN 90 AND 95 ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN TEMPS A BIT COOLER ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST.
WHILE THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A VERY ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OPTED FOR A DRY
FORECAST.  EVEN IF ONE WERE TO HAPPEN IT PROBABLY WOULD BE VERY
BRIEF AND COVER SUCH A SMALL AREA OF OUR REGION...NOT WORTH A
MENTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

AS H5 CUTOFF LOW SETS UP ACROSS HUDSON BAY/ONTARIO/W QUEBEC AND A
NEGATIVE NAO PATTERN IN PLACE...A FAST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN STREAM THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SHORT WAVES IN THIS
FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH TIMING OF
EACH INDIVIDUAL SYSTEM IS IN QUESTION BEYOND FRIDAY DUE TO THE FAST
FLOW. MAY START TO SEE THIS LONG WAVE PATTERN BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS TIMING THIS FAR OUT.

NOTED VERY GOOD CONTINUITY AND TIMING OF APPROACHING SYSTEM LATE
THIS WEEK AMONGST THE MEDIUM MODEL SUITE...THEN TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF SYSTEMS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IN QUESTION.  SO...
WENT WITH A BLEND OF 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF OP MODEL RUNS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN TRANSITIONED OVER TO AN OVERALL BLEND OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE INCLUDING GEFS/ECENS LATER IN THE PERIOD WHICH GAVE GOOD
CONSISTENCY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL CROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT. WILL SEE
SULTRY CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG WHICH MAY
BECOME LOCALLY DENSE ALONG THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S THOUGH A BIT MILDER IN THE URBAN CENTERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
PRETTY VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES ALONG IN W-NW FLOW ALOFT.
CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS ARRIVING AFTER 18Z THU ACROSS THE E
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES THAN PUSHING INTO THE CT VALLEY LATE IN
THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE MOST ACTION WILL OCCUR THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS
FRONT MOVES SLOWLY BUT STEADILY ACROSS. WITH GOOD PUSH OF DRIER
AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT...NOTING PWATS INCREASE TO 1.9 TO 2.1 INCHES
DURING THE NIGHT WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS. ALSO
GOOD ELEVATED CONVECTION SIGNALS...WITH TQ VALUES IN THE LOW 20S
ALONG WITH K INDICES IN THE MID 30S. SPC HAS ALSO MENTIONED
MARGINALLY SEVERE CONDITIONS AS THE PRECIP MOVES INTO FAR WESTERN
AREAS LATE IN THE DAY. SOMETHING TO BE WATCHED.

HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
ALSO USED ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

EXPECT FRONT TO CLEAR THE COAST FRI MORNING. ISOLD THUNDER MAY
LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING AS BEST INSTABILITY MOVES OFFSHORE.
SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS UNTIL AROUND
MIDDAY THEN SHOULD EXIT. NOTING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE HUMID
CONDITIONS AS DEWPTS FALL BACK TO THE 50S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM THOUGH...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER-
MID 80S.

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND COMFORTABLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND W MA INTO N CT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 60S...THOUGH MAY
LINGER AROUND 70 ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...
NOTING ANOTHER DIP IN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES IN THE UPPER FLOW. OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVING
TROUBLE HANDLING THIS FEATURE...THOUGH DOES LOOK LIKE THERE MAY BE
SOME ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AS WEAK FRONT CROSSES SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN MORNING. LOOKS LIKE BEST SHOT FOR NOW WILL BE ACROSS THE
CT VALLEY AND ALONG E COAST...THOUGH COULD SEE ISOLD ACTIVITY
ANYWHERE. SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...
THE H5 CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON/JAMES BAYS HINTS IN SHIFTING SLOWLY
E ACROSS N QUEBEC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT STILL SEEING LONG
WAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MAY SEE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BOTH MON AND
TUE...THOUGH SOME QUESTION ON EXACT TIMING THIS FAR OUT. WILL
REMAIN WARM AND HUMID DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE EXCEPT FOR SOME
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES ON THE ISLANDS.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
BUT HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
EVENING WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED LOWER CONDITIONS.  ACTIVITY WILL BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...SO MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY.  BULK
OF ACTION SHOULD BE ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MA...RHODE ISLAND AND
PERHAPS FAR EASTERN CT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY 7 OR 8 PM.  OTHERWISE...VFR FOR MOST SITES
EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.
ALSO...CANNOT RULE OUT IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS FAR SE MASS
INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS LOW.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEST OF THE BOSTON TERMINAL...BUT
STILL A LOW RISK THAT SOMETHING COULD DEVELOP THROUGH 8 PM

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.  VERY
LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED THROUGH 8 PM.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. WILL SEE PATCHY
FOG WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAINLY NEAR OR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR-IFR IN FOG IMPROVING
TO VFR BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER...LOW PROB THAT MVFR-IFR IN LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG MAY LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS AFTER 18Z...THEN
SHIFTING E BY EVENING.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI/SE MA AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS N CENTRAL AND W MA INTO N CENTRAL
CT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. LINGERING
SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG ALONG S COAST...
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY THROUGH SAT.
ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS.
LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE  STORMS ACROSS THE ADJACENT SOUTH COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 7 OR
8 PM.  LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED HAIL ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.  ALSO...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING NEAR
THE ISLANDS BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS
TURN WEST.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...EXPECT LIGHT SW WINDS WED NIGHT
INTO THU...THEN PICKING UP DURING THU AFTERNOON. MAY SEE GUSTS TO
20 KT. SEAS 4 FT OR LESS. PATCHY FOG WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING
LOWERING VSBYS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT MAINLY OVER THE OPEN
WATERS. SEAS REACHING AROUND 5 FT. PATCHY FOG ALONG WITH SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS LOWERING VSBYS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT MAY ENTER THE WATERS LATE SAT OR SAT NIGHT. SEAS OVER
THE OPEN WATERS UP TO AROUND 5 FT DURING FRI...SUBSIDING FRI
NIGHT BUT MAY BUILD AGAIN SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     MAZ017>024.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     RIZ005>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 282021
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
421 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM BUT DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

***A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING MAINLY
  CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MA INTO RHODE ISLAND AND PERHAPS FAR EASTERN
  CT***

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.  THIS IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL HEATING RESULTING IN MLCAPES
OF 1500 TO 2000...SOME SEA BREEZE/OUTFLOW INTERSECTIONS AND A
SHORTWAVE PASSING EAST OF THE REGION.  WHILE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OCCURRED ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES EARLIER...MAIN FOCUS FOR
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MA...AS WELL AS RHODE
ISLAND AND PERHAPS INTO FAR EASTERN CT.  THIS FROM SEA BREEZE AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ALONG WITH TERRAIN INFLUENCES.  A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE AND PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING.  ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN BY
7 OR 8 PM OR SO THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS...HEIGHTS RISE AND
INSTABILITY DIMINISHES.

OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.  WILL
LIKELY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S IN THE OUTLYING LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S IN THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF DOWNTOWN BOSTON AND
PROVIDENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...

***HOT BUT DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY***

UPPER LEVEL RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DESPITE SOME
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.  850 MB TEMPS AROUND +18C WILL YIELD HIGHS
BETWEEN 90 AND 95 ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN TEMPS A BIT COOLER ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST.
WHILE THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A VERY ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OPTED FOR A DRY
FORECAST.  EVEN IF ONE WERE TO HAPPEN IT PROBABLY WOULD BE VERY
BRIEF AND COVER SUCH A SMALL AREA OF OUR REGION...NOT WORTH A
MENTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
350 AM UPDATE...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* VERY WARM AND HUMID THU
* SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THU/THU NIGHT
* DRIER/LESS HUMID FRI THRU MON BUT STILL WARM

WED NIGHT/THU/THU NIGHT...

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVER THE AREA WED NIGHT
INTO THU. THUS DRY WEATHER TO START THIS PERIOD HOWEVER THE RISK OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS INCREASES LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT AS POTENT
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH CURRENTLY EXITING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS BEGINS TO APPROACH NEW ENGLAND FROM THE WEST.
APPEARS TIMING OF THE FRONT COMES THROUGH OVERNIGHT...WELL AFTER
PEAKING HEATING. THIS COMBINED WITH MARGINAL SHEAR KEEPS THE RISK
LOW FOR STRONG CONVECTION LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT. HOWEVER GOOD
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WITH THIS TROUGH SUGGEST AT LEAST SHOWERS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THU AND THU
NIGHT. PWATS ABOVE NORMAL AND DEW PTS 65 TO 70 WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ALTHOUGH STILL 2 DAYS AWAY WILL NEED TO
MONITOR LATER MODEL TRENDS.

OTHERWISE VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THU AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. A MODEL BLEND OFFERS HIGHS U80S TO L90S.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW/VORTEX SETS UP OVER HUDSON/JAMES BAY THIS TIME
PERIOD. THIS RESULTS IN BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND MEAN TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL /HIGHS MU80S/ AND LOWS IN THE 60S ALONG WITH TOLERABLE
HUMIDITY AS DEW PTS AVERAGE IN THE 50S DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM JET SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST THERE WILL BE THE RISK OF SCATTERED
DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY. TOO DIFFICULT AT THIS
TIME RANGE TO TIME INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES. NOT A WASHOUT BUT THE
RISK OF CONVECTION FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE EXCEPT FOR SOME
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES ON THE ISLANDS.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
BUT HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
EVENING WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED LOWER CONDITIONS.  ACTIVITY WILL BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...SO MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY.  BULK
OF ACTION SHOULD BE ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MA...RHODE ISLAND AND
PERHAPS FAR EASTERN CT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY 7 OR 8 PM.  OTHERWISE...VFR FOR MOST SITES
EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.
ALSO...CANNOT RULE OUT IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS FAR SE MASS
INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS LOW.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEST OF THE BOSTON TERMINAL...BUT
STILL A LOW RISK THAT SOMETHING COULD DEVELOP THROUGH 8 PM

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.  VERY
LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED THROUGH 8 PM.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

350 AM UPDATE...

WED NGT/THU...PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN FOG WED NGT BUT QUICKLY IMPROVING
TO VFR THU MORNING. LOW PROB THAT MVFR/IFR IN STRATUS LINGERS ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST THU. THEN UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICK THIS FOG/STRATUS
BURNS OFF SOUTH COAST.

THU NIGHT...VFR-MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS. SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE.

FRI AND SAT...VFR LIKELY. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE  STORMS ACROSS THE ADJACENT SOUTH COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 7 OR
8 PM.  LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED HAIL ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.  ALSO...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING NEAR
THE ISLANDS BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS
TURN WEST.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

350 AM UPDATE...

WED NIGHT AND THU...FAIRLY TRANQUIL WIND AND SEAS. POSSIBLE PATCHY
FOG IN HUMID AIRMASS.

THU NIGHT...MODEST SSW WIND AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER POSSIBLE.

FRI AND SAT...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT
MAY ENTER THE WATERS SAT. WSW WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     MAZ017>024.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     RIZ005>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 282021
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
421 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM BUT DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

***A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING MAINLY
  CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MA INTO RHODE ISLAND AND PERHAPS FAR EASTERN
  CT***

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.  THIS IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL HEATING RESULTING IN MLCAPES
OF 1500 TO 2000...SOME SEA BREEZE/OUTFLOW INTERSECTIONS AND A
SHORTWAVE PASSING EAST OF THE REGION.  WHILE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OCCURRED ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES EARLIER...MAIN FOCUS FOR
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MA...AS WELL AS RHODE
ISLAND AND PERHAPS INTO FAR EASTERN CT.  THIS FROM SEA BREEZE AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ALONG WITH TERRAIN INFLUENCES.  A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE AND PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING.  ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN BY
7 OR 8 PM OR SO THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS...HEIGHTS RISE AND
INSTABILITY DIMINISHES.

OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.  WILL
LIKELY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S IN THE OUTLYING LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S IN THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF DOWNTOWN BOSTON AND
PROVIDENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...

***HOT BUT DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY***

UPPER LEVEL RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DESPITE SOME
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.  850 MB TEMPS AROUND +18C WILL YIELD HIGHS
BETWEEN 90 AND 95 ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN TEMPS A BIT COOLER ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST.
WHILE THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A VERY ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OPTED FOR A DRY
FORECAST.  EVEN IF ONE WERE TO HAPPEN IT PROBABLY WOULD BE VERY
BRIEF AND COVER SUCH A SMALL AREA OF OUR REGION...NOT WORTH A
MENTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
350 AM UPDATE...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* VERY WARM AND HUMID THU
* SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THU/THU NIGHT
* DRIER/LESS HUMID FRI THRU MON BUT STILL WARM

WED NIGHT/THU/THU NIGHT...

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVER THE AREA WED NIGHT
INTO THU. THUS DRY WEATHER TO START THIS PERIOD HOWEVER THE RISK OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS INCREASES LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT AS POTENT
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH CURRENTLY EXITING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS BEGINS TO APPROACH NEW ENGLAND FROM THE WEST.
APPEARS TIMING OF THE FRONT COMES THROUGH OVERNIGHT...WELL AFTER
PEAKING HEATING. THIS COMBINED WITH MARGINAL SHEAR KEEPS THE RISK
LOW FOR STRONG CONVECTION LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT. HOWEVER GOOD
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WITH THIS TROUGH SUGGEST AT LEAST SHOWERS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THU AND THU
NIGHT. PWATS ABOVE NORMAL AND DEW PTS 65 TO 70 WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ALTHOUGH STILL 2 DAYS AWAY WILL NEED TO
MONITOR LATER MODEL TRENDS.

OTHERWISE VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THU AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. A MODEL BLEND OFFERS HIGHS U80S TO L90S.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW/VORTEX SETS UP OVER HUDSON/JAMES BAY THIS TIME
PERIOD. THIS RESULTS IN BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND MEAN TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL /HIGHS MU80S/ AND LOWS IN THE 60S ALONG WITH TOLERABLE
HUMIDITY AS DEW PTS AVERAGE IN THE 50S DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM JET SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST THERE WILL BE THE RISK OF SCATTERED
DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY. TOO DIFFICULT AT THIS
TIME RANGE TO TIME INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES. NOT A WASHOUT BUT THE
RISK OF CONVECTION FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE EXCEPT FOR SOME
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES ON THE ISLANDS.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
BUT HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
EVENING WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED LOWER CONDITIONS.  ACTIVITY WILL BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...SO MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY.  BULK
OF ACTION SHOULD BE ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MA...RHODE ISLAND AND
PERHAPS FAR EASTERN CT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY 7 OR 8 PM.  OTHERWISE...VFR FOR MOST SITES
EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.
ALSO...CANNOT RULE OUT IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS FAR SE MASS
INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS LOW.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEST OF THE BOSTON TERMINAL...BUT
STILL A LOW RISK THAT SOMETHING COULD DEVELOP THROUGH 8 PM

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.  VERY
LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED THROUGH 8 PM.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

350 AM UPDATE...

WED NGT/THU...PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN FOG WED NGT BUT QUICKLY IMPROVING
TO VFR THU MORNING. LOW PROB THAT MVFR/IFR IN STRATUS LINGERS ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST THU. THEN UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICK THIS FOG/STRATUS
BURNS OFF SOUTH COAST.

THU NIGHT...VFR-MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS. SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE.

FRI AND SAT...VFR LIKELY. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE  STORMS ACROSS THE ADJACENT SOUTH COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 7 OR
8 PM.  LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED HAIL ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.  ALSO...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING NEAR
THE ISLANDS BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS
TURN WEST.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

350 AM UPDATE...

WED NIGHT AND THU...FAIRLY TRANQUIL WIND AND SEAS. POSSIBLE PATCHY
FOG IN HUMID AIRMASS.

THU NIGHT...MODEST SSW WIND AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER POSSIBLE.

FRI AND SAT...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT
MAY ENTER THE WATERS SAT. WSW WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     MAZ017>024.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     RIZ005>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 282021
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
421 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM BUT DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

***A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING MAINLY
  CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MA INTO RHODE ISLAND AND PERHAPS FAR EASTERN
  CT***

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.  THIS IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL HEATING RESULTING IN MLCAPES
OF 1500 TO 2000...SOME SEA BREEZE/OUTFLOW INTERSECTIONS AND A
SHORTWAVE PASSING EAST OF THE REGION.  WHILE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OCCURRED ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES EARLIER...MAIN FOCUS FOR
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MA...AS WELL AS RHODE
ISLAND AND PERHAPS INTO FAR EASTERN CT.  THIS FROM SEA BREEZE AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ALONG WITH TERRAIN INFLUENCES.  A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE AND PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING.  ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN BY
7 OR 8 PM OR SO THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS...HEIGHTS RISE AND
INSTABILITY DIMINISHES.

OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.  WILL
LIKELY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S IN THE OUTLYING LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S IN THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF DOWNTOWN BOSTON AND
PROVIDENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...

***HOT BUT DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY***

UPPER LEVEL RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DESPITE SOME
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.  850 MB TEMPS AROUND +18C WILL YIELD HIGHS
BETWEEN 90 AND 95 ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN TEMPS A BIT COOLER ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST.
WHILE THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A VERY ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OPTED FOR A DRY
FORECAST.  EVEN IF ONE WERE TO HAPPEN IT PROBABLY WOULD BE VERY
BRIEF AND COVER SUCH A SMALL AREA OF OUR REGION...NOT WORTH A
MENTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
350 AM UPDATE...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* VERY WARM AND HUMID THU
* SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THU/THU NIGHT
* DRIER/LESS HUMID FRI THRU MON BUT STILL WARM

WED NIGHT/THU/THU NIGHT...

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVER THE AREA WED NIGHT
INTO THU. THUS DRY WEATHER TO START THIS PERIOD HOWEVER THE RISK OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS INCREASES LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT AS POTENT
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH CURRENTLY EXITING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS BEGINS TO APPROACH NEW ENGLAND FROM THE WEST.
APPEARS TIMING OF THE FRONT COMES THROUGH OVERNIGHT...WELL AFTER
PEAKING HEATING. THIS COMBINED WITH MARGINAL SHEAR KEEPS THE RISK
LOW FOR STRONG CONVECTION LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT. HOWEVER GOOD
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WITH THIS TROUGH SUGGEST AT LEAST SHOWERS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THU AND THU
NIGHT. PWATS ABOVE NORMAL AND DEW PTS 65 TO 70 WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ALTHOUGH STILL 2 DAYS AWAY WILL NEED TO
MONITOR LATER MODEL TRENDS.

OTHERWISE VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THU AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. A MODEL BLEND OFFERS HIGHS U80S TO L90S.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW/VORTEX SETS UP OVER HUDSON/JAMES BAY THIS TIME
PERIOD. THIS RESULTS IN BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND MEAN TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL /HIGHS MU80S/ AND LOWS IN THE 60S ALONG WITH TOLERABLE
HUMIDITY AS DEW PTS AVERAGE IN THE 50S DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM JET SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST THERE WILL BE THE RISK OF SCATTERED
DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY. TOO DIFFICULT AT THIS
TIME RANGE TO TIME INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES. NOT A WASHOUT BUT THE
RISK OF CONVECTION FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE EXCEPT FOR SOME
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES ON THE ISLANDS.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
BUT HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
EVENING WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED LOWER CONDITIONS.  ACTIVITY WILL BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...SO MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY.  BULK
OF ACTION SHOULD BE ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MA...RHODE ISLAND AND
PERHAPS FAR EASTERN CT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY 7 OR 8 PM.  OTHERWISE...VFR FOR MOST SITES
EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.
ALSO...CANNOT RULE OUT IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS FAR SE MASS
INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS LOW.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEST OF THE BOSTON TERMINAL...BUT
STILL A LOW RISK THAT SOMETHING COULD DEVELOP THROUGH 8 PM

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.  VERY
LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED THROUGH 8 PM.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

350 AM UPDATE...

WED NGT/THU...PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN FOG WED NGT BUT QUICKLY IMPROVING
TO VFR THU MORNING. LOW PROB THAT MVFR/IFR IN STRATUS LINGERS ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST THU. THEN UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICK THIS FOG/STRATUS
BURNS OFF SOUTH COAST.

THU NIGHT...VFR-MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS. SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE.

FRI AND SAT...VFR LIKELY. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE  STORMS ACROSS THE ADJACENT SOUTH COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 7 OR
8 PM.  LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED HAIL ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.  ALSO...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING NEAR
THE ISLANDS BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS
TURN WEST.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

350 AM UPDATE...

WED NIGHT AND THU...FAIRLY TRANQUIL WIND AND SEAS. POSSIBLE PATCHY
FOG IN HUMID AIRMASS.

THU NIGHT...MODEST SSW WIND AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER POSSIBLE.

FRI AND SAT...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT
MAY ENTER THE WATERS SAT. WSW WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     MAZ017>024.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     RIZ005>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA




000
FXUS61 KBOX 282021
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
421 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM BUT DRIER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

***A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING MAINLY
  CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MA INTO RHODE ISLAND AND PERHAPS FAR EASTERN
  CT***

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.  THIS IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL HEATING RESULTING IN MLCAPES
OF 1500 TO 2000...SOME SEA BREEZE/OUTFLOW INTERSECTIONS AND A
SHORTWAVE PASSING EAST OF THE REGION.  WHILE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OCCURRED ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES EARLIER...MAIN FOCUS FOR
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MA...AS WELL AS RHODE
ISLAND AND PERHAPS INTO FAR EASTERN CT.  THIS FROM SEA BREEZE AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ALONG WITH TERRAIN INFLUENCES.  A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE AND PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING.  ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN BY
7 OR 8 PM OR SO THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS...HEIGHTS RISE AND
INSTABILITY DIMINISHES.

OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER PREVAILS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.  WILL
LIKELY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S IN THE OUTLYING LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S IN THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS OF DOWNTOWN BOSTON AND
PROVIDENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...

***HOT BUT DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY***

UPPER LEVEL RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DESPITE SOME
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.  850 MB TEMPS AROUND +18C WILL YIELD HIGHS
BETWEEN 90 AND 95 ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.  WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN TEMPS A BIT COOLER ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST.
WHILE THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A VERY ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM...GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OPTED FOR A DRY
FORECAST.  EVEN IF ONE WERE TO HAPPEN IT PROBABLY WOULD BE VERY
BRIEF AND COVER SUCH A SMALL AREA OF OUR REGION...NOT WORTH A
MENTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
350 AM UPDATE...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* VERY WARM AND HUMID THU
* SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THU/THU NIGHT
* DRIER/LESS HUMID FRI THRU MON BUT STILL WARM

WED NIGHT/THU/THU NIGHT...

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVER THE AREA WED NIGHT
INTO THU. THUS DRY WEATHER TO START THIS PERIOD HOWEVER THE RISK OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS INCREASES LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT AS POTENT
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH CURRENTLY EXITING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS BEGINS TO APPROACH NEW ENGLAND FROM THE WEST.
APPEARS TIMING OF THE FRONT COMES THROUGH OVERNIGHT...WELL AFTER
PEAKING HEATING. THIS COMBINED WITH MARGINAL SHEAR KEEPS THE RISK
LOW FOR STRONG CONVECTION LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT. HOWEVER GOOD
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WITH THIS TROUGH SUGGEST AT LEAST SHOWERS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THU AND THU
NIGHT. PWATS ABOVE NORMAL AND DEW PTS 65 TO 70 WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ALTHOUGH STILL 2 DAYS AWAY WILL NEED TO
MONITOR LATER MODEL TRENDS.

OTHERWISE VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THU AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. A MODEL BLEND OFFERS HIGHS U80S TO L90S.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW/VORTEX SETS UP OVER HUDSON/JAMES BAY THIS TIME
PERIOD. THIS RESULTS IN BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND MEAN TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL /HIGHS MU80S/ AND LOWS IN THE 60S ALONG WITH TOLERABLE
HUMIDITY AS DEW PTS AVERAGE IN THE 50S DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM JET SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST THERE WILL BE THE RISK OF SCATTERED
DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY. TOO DIFFICULT AT THIS
TIME RANGE TO TIME INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES. NOT A WASHOUT BUT THE
RISK OF CONVECTION FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE EXCEPT FOR SOME
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES ON THE ISLANDS.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
BUT HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
EVENING WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED LOWER CONDITIONS.  ACTIVITY WILL BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...SO MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY.  BULK
OF ACTION SHOULD BE ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MA...RHODE ISLAND AND
PERHAPS FAR EASTERN CT.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY 7 OR 8 PM.  OTHERWISE...VFR FOR MOST SITES
EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.
ALSO...CANNOT RULE OUT IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS FAR SE MASS
INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS LOW.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEST OF THE BOSTON TERMINAL...BUT
STILL A LOW RISK THAT SOMETHING COULD DEVELOP THROUGH 8 PM

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.  VERY
LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED THROUGH 8 PM.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

350 AM UPDATE...

WED NGT/THU...PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN FOG WED NGT BUT QUICKLY IMPROVING
TO VFR THU MORNING. LOW PROB THAT MVFR/IFR IN STRATUS LINGERS ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST THU. THEN UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICK THIS FOG/STRATUS
BURNS OFF SOUTH COAST.

THU NIGHT...VFR-MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS. SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE.

FRI AND SAT...VFR LIKELY. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE  STORMS ACROSS THE ADJACENT SOUTH COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 7 OR
8 PM.  LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED HAIL ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.  ALSO...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING NEAR
THE ISLANDS BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS
TURN WEST.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

350 AM UPDATE...

WED NIGHT AND THU...FAIRLY TRANQUIL WIND AND SEAS. POSSIBLE PATCHY
FOG IN HUMID AIRMASS.

THU NIGHT...MODEST SSW WIND AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER POSSIBLE.

FRI AND SAT...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT
MAY ENTER THE WATERS SAT. WSW WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     MAZ017>024.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     RIZ005>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...FRANK/NOCERA
MARINE...FRANK/NOCERA




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