[top]
000
FXUS61 KBOX 240222
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1022 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THIS FRONT...CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO LINGER
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
COOLER CONDITIONS...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE
RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE ON
MONDAY. DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. PORTIONS OF
THE WATCH AREA HAD ALREADY SEEN MORE THAN 1 INCH OF RAIN EARLIER
TODAY. EXPECTING ANOTHER AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO
IMPACT THIS REGION LATER TONIGHT.
BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...INCREASED POPS FOR MEASURABLE
RAINFALL SLIGHTLY. ALSO TRIED TO ADJUST TIMING BASED ON RADAR
DATA. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO REFLECT LATEST
OBSERVED TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST FROM CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
WILL APPROACH WESTERN NEW ENG TOWARD DAYBREAK AS MID LEVEL TROF
AMPLIFIES OVER THE GRT LAKES. SNE WILL BE UNDER THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WHICH WILL PROVIDE GOOD FORCING
ACTING ON HIGH PWAT AIRMASS TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO
SNE. SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE INTERIOR
IN THE EVENING...THEN FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE COASTAL PLAIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS SE NEW ENG.
INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKENING OVERNIGHT AND EVEN ELEVATED
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL. STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLD
TSTMS GIVEN DEEP SYNOPTIC FORCING...BUT LACK OF INSTABILITY SHOULD
LIMIT RAINFALL RATES. AREAS OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
LIKELY OVERNIGHT IN EASTERN NEW ENG.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE MID ATLC
REGION ON FRIDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. SFC LOW DEVELOPS ON
THE FRONT WHICH WILL SLOW ITS EWD PROGRESS ACROSS SNE. LOW LEVEL
JET WILL BE SITUATED JUST E OF CAPE COD IN THE MORNING WITH AXIS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL CONFINED TO THE CAPE/ISLANDS...BEFORE MOVING E
IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ALL DAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION WITH DEEP MOISTURE AXIS IN PLACE AND SFC WAVE
MOVING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IN FACT...THIS HAS A WINTER LOOK
TO IT WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND DEFORMATION AXIS
SETTING UP ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENG NW OF SFC LOW. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY FALL INTO THE 50S OVER NW HIGHER TERRAIN AS FRONT MOVES TO
THE EAST...BUT SHOULD REACH WELL INTO 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS SE
NEW ENG WHICH WILL REMAIN E OF THE BOUNDARY FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
THE FRONT SHOULD REACH THE I95 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND
* IMPROVEMENTS BEGIN ON MONDAY...WITH DRIER BUT COOL CONDITIONS
* MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARRIVE BY LATE NEXT WEEK
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
ALL OPERATIONAL MODELS NOW ON BOARD WITH DEVELOPING AMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48...WITH DIGGING TROUGHS ON
THE EAST AND WEST COASTS WITH BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S. THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THIS PERIOD. H5 CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE MID ATLC THEN SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG SLOWLY MOVING COLD
FRONT. LOWERED CONFIDENCE ON TIMING THE EXIT OF THE LOW...
HOWEVER. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH...SHOULD SEE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS BUT COOL TEMPS. TEMPS START TO MODERATE BY MID WEEK.
WENT ALONG WITH 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF AND THEIR ENSEMBLES...WHICH IS
PRETTY CLOSE TO THE WPC GUIDANCE.
DETAILS...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...CONTINUED CLOUDY SKIES WITH SHOWERS
AND COOL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
SURFACE LOW PRES TRAPPED WITH ITS UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW WILL
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
ANYTIME DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. CURRENT QPF FORECAST SUGGESTS
POSSIBILITY OF 1-2 INCHES OF GENERAL RAIN WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE CT VALLEY AND SW NH. HOWEVER...WITH THE CHANCE OF
THUNDER...COULD SEE LOCALIZED FLOODING ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND WESTERN AREAS WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL OF FLOODING ALONG RIVERS AND LOW
LYING AREAS.
TEMPS WILL BECOME RATHER CHILLY ACROSS S NH/W MA SAT NIGHT AS LOW
PRES SPINS ACROSS E MA...WITH N-NW WINDS IN PLACE. MOS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS READINGS FALLING BACK TO THE MID-UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. CAN NOT RULE OUT THE REMOTE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
MIXING OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF SW NH.
FOR NOW...LOOKS LIKE THE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY
MOVE NE DURING SUNDAY...BUT PRECIP WILL LINGER INTO SUN NIGHT
BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM SW-NE OVERNIGHT SUN. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE 50S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MONDAY...TRANSITION DAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA.
MAY STILL SEE SOME WIDELY SCT SHOWERS ACROSS S NH/NE MA EARLY BUT
WILL PUSH NE. WILL CONTINUE COOL...BUT READINGS SHOULD REACH THE
60S.
TUESDAY-THURSDAY...HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT TO THE MID ATLC COAST THEN
OFFSHORE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. EXPECT A DRY FORECAST WITH SLOWLY
MODERATING TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR-MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING TO LOWER TO IFR-LIFR
WITH AREAS OF FOG AND MVFR-IFR VSBYS DEVELOPING. AREAS OF
SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS ACROSS CT VALLEY INTO SW NH WILL EXPAND E
OVERNIGHT WITH STRONG SW FLOW AT SURFACE AND ALOFT. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL LIKELY. LOCAL LLWS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS CAPE AND
ISLANDS AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS REGION.
FRIDAY...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS SHIFT
TO W-NW ACROSS WESTERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN LATE IN
THE DAY ACROSS THE E. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAINLY IN THE
MORNING. LLWS LIKELY ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS THROUGH MIDDAY.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT LOWERING CIGS TO IFR
TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS INCREASING. SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. EXPECT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS THIS
EVENING TO BECOME IFR AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH A
GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT. A FEW TSTMS THROUGH MIDNIGHT POSSIBLE.
PRECIP SHOULD LESSEN FRIDAY MORNING...BUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
LINGER.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VERY
UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH VARIABILITY BETWEEN VFR CONDITIONS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA/SCT TSRA/FOG. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
DURING SUNDAY NIGHT FROM SW TO NE.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW PROB OF
MVFR CIGS ACROSS S NH/N MA EARLY MON THEN IMPROVING. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRIDAY.
LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING NEAR SCA GUSTS ON THE WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT...DIMINISHING WEST OF THE CANAL LATER TONIGHT AS THE LLJ
MOVES TO THE EAST. STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL LIMIT GUSTS SO
GALES NOT EXPECTED. PERSISTENT SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN BUILDING
SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON FRIDAY AS THE LLJ
MOVES E OF THE WATERS. EXPECT LOW VSBYS IN FOG AND LOCALLY HEAVY
SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOW PRES AND COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE WATERS...THEN STALL ALONG THE EASTERN NEAR
SHORE WATERS. EXPECT SW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT EARLY...THEN WILL
DIMINISH. LOW PROB FOR THUNDER. AREAS OF LOW VSBYS IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG. SEAS WILL REMAIN AOA 5 FT MAINLY OVER THE
OPEN WATERS.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE MAINLY FOR TIMING. AS LOW PRES
STALLS ACROSS E MA/MASS BAY...WILL SEE LIGHT/VRBL WINDS EXCEPT
N-NW OVER THE WESTERN WATERS LATER SAT...WHICH WILL SHIFT TOWARD
THE EASTERN WATERS DURING SUN. SEAS REMAIN HIGH. LOW CHANCE OF
TSTMS SAT-SAT NIGHT. LOW PROB OF GUSTS UP TO 25 KT SUN.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS BECOME W WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT MON...THEN DIMINISH MON NIGHT-TUE. SEAS AROUND 5
FT ON THE OUTER WATERS MON...THEN SUBSIDING.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EAST COAST OF MA THIS WEEKEND...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WITH SURFACE LOW WOBBLING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY
AND INTO SUNDAY...EXPECT GUSTY NORTHERLY TO NORTHWEST WINDS
ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIMES HOURS. AT BOSTON...A HIGH TIDE OF
11.9FT WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY NIGHT AT 11:21 PM AND 12.2 FT EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AT 12:12 AM. EXPECT A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS DURING
THE FRIDAY HIGH TIDE SO THIS IS LESS THAN A CONCERN. LOOKING AT
THE SUNDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE...NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
MAY HELP INCREASE THE SURGE ESPECIALLY FOR CAPE COD BAY. RIGHT NOW
ONLY EXPECT MINOR SPLASHOVER ACROSS NORTH FACING BEACHES. WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND UPDATE WITH THE LATEST FORECAST
GUIDANCE.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MAZ002>004-
008>012-026.
NH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NHZ011-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ232.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ233-234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...BELK/EVT/KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF
000
FXUS61 KBOX 232358
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
758 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THIS FRONT...CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO LINGER
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
COOLER CONDITIONS...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE
RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE ON
MONDAY. DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
740 PM UPDATE...
SWATH OF SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM NEAR NYC THROUGH WESTERN CT...
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MA INTO SOUTHERN NH AT 23Z TENDING TO TRAIN
ACROSS THESE AREAS BUT PRECIP WITHIN THIS AREA. PRECIP AND
CONVECTION TENDING TO WANE AS SUN SETS. SEE ANOTHER AREA REFIRING
AND APPEARS IT WILL TRAIN ACROSS THIS SAME REGION OUT OF MD/E
VA/SE PA. HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN...WITH PWATS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR NEAR 1.7".
ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIP WORKING UP THE COAST INTO EASTERN LONG
ISLAND...RI AND E MA. NOTING SOME COLD CLOUD TOPS SEEN IN THIS
NEW AREA...THOUGH MOST OF THOSE APPEAR TO STAY OFFSHORE SO PRECIP
IN THIS AREA WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT.
OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF REGION IS MAINLY DRY WITH ONLY A FEW
SHOWERS...BUT EXPECT PRECIP TO MOVE IN THERE OVERNIGHT AS PREV
FORECAST SUGGESTS.
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST FROM CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
WILL APPROACH WESTERN NEW ENG TOWARD DAYBREAK AS MID LEVEL TROF
AMPLIFIES OVER THE GRT LAKES. SNE WILL BE UNDER THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WHICH WILL PROVIDE GOOD FORCING
ACTING ON HIGH PWAT AIRMASS TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO
SNE. SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE INTERIOR
IN THE EVENING...THEN FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE COASTAL PLAIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS SE NEW ENG.
INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKENING OVERNIGHT AND EVEN ELEVATED
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL. STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLD
TSTMS GIVEN DEEP SYNOPTIC FORCING...BUT LACK OF INSTABILITY SHOULD
LIMIT RAINFALL RATES. AREAS OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
LIKELY OVERNIGHT IN EASTERN NEW ENG.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE MID ATLC
REGION ON FRIDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. SFC LOW DEVELOPS ON
THE FRONT WHICH WILL SLOW ITS EWD PROGRESS ACROSS SNE. LOW LEVEL
JET WILL BE SITUATED JUST E OF CAPE COD IN THE MORNING WITH AXIS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL CONFINED TO THE CAPE/ISLANDS...BEFORE MOVING E
IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ALL DAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION WITH DEEP MOISTURE AXIS IN PLACE AND SFC WAVE
MOVING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IN FACT...THIS HAS A WINTER LOOK
TO IT WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND DEFORMATION AXIS
SETTING UP ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENG NW OF SFC LOW. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY FALL INTO THE 50S OVER NW HIGHER TERRAIN AS FRONT MOVES TO
THE EAST...BUT SHOULD REACH WELL INTO 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS SE
NEW ENG WHICH WILL REMAIN E OF THE BOUNDARY FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
THE FRONT SHOULD REACH THE I95 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND
* IMPROVEMENTS BEGIN ON MONDAY...WITH DRIER BUT COOL CONDITIONS
* MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARRIVE BY LATE NEXT WEEK
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
ALL OPERATIONAL MODELS NOW ON BOARD WITH DEVELOPING AMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48...WITH DIGGING TROUGHS ON
THE EAST AND WEST COASTS WITH BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S. THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THIS PERIOD. H5 CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE MID ATLC THEN SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG SLOWLY MOVING COLD
FRONT. LOWERED CONFIDENCE ON TIMING THE EXIT OF THE LOW...
HOWEVER. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH...SHOULD SEE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS BUT COOL TEMPS. TEMPS START TO MODERATE BY MID WEEK.
WENT ALONG WITH 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF AND THEIR ENSEMBLES...WHICH IS
PRETTY CLOSE TO THE WPC GUIDANCE.
DETAILS...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...CONTINUED CLOUDY SKIES WITH SHOWERS
AND COOL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
SURFACE LOW PRES TRAPPED WITH ITS UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW WILL
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
ANYTIME DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. CURRENT QPF FORECAST SUGGESTS
POSSIBILITY OF 1-2 INCHES OF GENERAL RAIN WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE CT VALLEY AND SW NH. HOWEVER...WITH THE CHANCE OF
THUNDER...COULD SEE LOCALIZED FLOODING ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND WESTERN AREAS WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL OF FLOODING ALONG RIVERS AND LOW
LYING AREAS.
TEMPS WILL BECOME RATHER CHILLY ACROSS S NH/W MA SAT NIGHT AS LOW
PRES SPINS ACROSS E MA...WITH N-NW WINDS IN PLACE. MOS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS READINGS FALLING BACK TO THE MID-UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. CAN NOT RULE OUT THE REMOTE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
MIXING OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF SW NH.
FOR NOW...LOOKS LIKE THE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY
MOVE NE DURING SUNDAY...BUT PRECIP WILL LINGER INTO SUN NIGHT
BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM SW-NE OVERNIGHT SUN. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE 50S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MONDAY...TRANSITION DAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA.
MAY STILL SEE SOME WIDELY SCT SHOWERS ACROSS S NH/NE MA EARLY BUT
WILL PUSH NE. WILL CONTINUE COOL...BUT READINGS SHOULD REACH THE
60S.
TUESDAY-THURSDAY...HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT TO THE MID ATLC COAST THEN
OFFSHORE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. EXPECT A DRY FORECAST WITH SLOWLY
MODERATING TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...EXPECT VFR-MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING TO LOWER TO IFR-LIFR
WITH AREAS OF FOG AND MVFR-IFR VSBYS DEVELOPING. AREAS OF
SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS ACROSS CT VALLEY INTO SW NH WILL EXPAND E
OVERNIGHT WITH STRONG SW FLOW AT SURFACE AND ALOFT. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL LIKELY. LOCAL LLWS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS CAPE AND
ISLANDS AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS REGION.
FRIDAY...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS SHIFT
TO W-NW ACROSS WESTERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN LATE IN
THE DAY ACROSS THE E. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAINLY IN THE
MORNING. LLWS LIKELY ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS THROUGH MIDDAY.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT LOWERING CIGS TO IFR
TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS INCREASING. SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. EXPECT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS THIS
EVENING TO BECOME IFR AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH A
GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT. A FEW TSTMS THROUGH MIDNIGHT POSSIBLE.
PRECIP SHOULD LESSEN FRIDAY MORNING...BUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
LINGER.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VERY
UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH VARIABILITY BETWEEN VFR CONDITIONS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA/SCT TSRA/FOG. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
DURING SUNDAY NIGHT FROM SW TO NE.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW PROB OF
MVFR CIGS ACROSS S NH/N MA EARLY MON THEN IMPROVING. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRIDAY.
LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING NEAR SCA GUSTS ON THE WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT...DIMINISHING WEST OF THE CANAL LATER TONIGHT AS THE LLJ
MOVES TO THE EAST. STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL LIMIT GUSTS SO
GALES NOT EXPECTED. PERSISTENT SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN BUILDING
SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON FRIDAY AS THE LLJ
MOVES E OF THE WATERS. EXPECT LOW VSBYS IN FOG AND LOCALLY HEAVY
SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOW PRES AND COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE WATERS...THEN STALL ALONG THE EASTERN NEAR
SHORE WATERS. EXPECT SW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT EARLY...THEN WILL
DIMINISH. LOW PROB FOR THUNDER. AREAS OF LOW VSBYS IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG. SEAS WILL REMAIN AOA 5 FT MAINLY OVER THE
OPEN WATERS.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE MAINLY FOR TIMING. AS LOW PRES
STALLS ACROSS E MA/MASS BAY...WILL SEE LIGHT/VRBL WINDS EXCEPT
N-NW OVER THE WESTERN WATERS LATER SAT...WHICH WILL SHIFT TOWARD
THE EASTERN WATERS DURING SUN. SEAS REMAIN HIGH. LOW CHANCE OF
TSTMS SAT-SAT NIGHT. LOW PROB OF GUSTS UP TO 25 KT SUN.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS BECOME W WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT MON...THEN DIMINISH MON NIGHT-TUE. SEAS AROUND 5
FT ON THE OUTER WATERS MON...THEN SUBSIDING.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RI SOUTH COAST THIS EVENING...
A MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHERLY FETCH OF SURFACE WIND AND INCREASING
LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE ENOUGH WATER INTO NARRAGANSETT
BAY FOR A SURGE AROUND OR EVEN JUST ABOVE A FOOT AT THE TIME OF
THE EVENING HIGH TIDE...ABOUT 2330Z. THIS WILL BE ON TOP OF A
PARTICULARLY HIGH SPRING TIDE. BOTH THE ESTOFS AND ETSS SURGE
GUIDANCE DEPICT ESSENTIALLY NO SURGE THIS EVENING BUT SEEMS LIKE
TOO MUCH OF A S TO SW WIND TO AVOID SOME SURGE...AND AT 15Z PVD
WAS ALREADY SHOWING A .4 FT SURGE AND CLIMBING. IN ADDITION...
SHORELINE FLOODING COULD BE EXACERBATED SOME BY ANY HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCING FRESH WATER RUNOFF THAT STRUGGLES TO DRAIN AT THE
SHORELINE DURING HIGH TIDE.
EAST COAST OF MA THIS WEEKEND...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH SURFACE LOW WOBBLING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND
INTO SUNDAY...EXPECT GUSTY NORTHERLY TO NORTHWEST WINDS ESPECIALLY
DURING THE DAYTIMES HOURS. AT BOSTON...A HIGH TIDE OF 11.9FT WILL
OCCUR ON FRIDAY NIGHT AT 11:21 PM AND 12.2 FT EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AT 12:12 AM. EXPECT A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS DURING THE
FRIDAY HIGH TIDE SO THIS IS LESS THAN A CONCERN. LOOKING AT THE
SUNDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE...NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY
HELP INCREASE THE SURGE ESPECIALLY FOR CAPE COD BAY. RIGHT NOW
ONLY EXPECT MINOR SPLASHOVER ACROSS NORTH FACING BEACHES. WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND UPDATE WITH THE LATEST FORECAST
GUIDANCE.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ002-
004>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ232.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ233-234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC/EVT
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...THOMPSON
000
FXUS61 KBOX 232103
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
503 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THIS FRONT...CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO LINGER
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
COOLER CONDITIONS...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE
RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE ON
MONDAY. DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MOVING NE ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENG. ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG WHILE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE LESS THAN 6 C/KM. INSTABILITY IS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR SVR WX
DESPITE 30-40 KT 0-6KM SHEAR. NEAR TERM FORECAST OF SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE PARAMETER ALSO SUPPORTS LIMITED SVR POTENTIAL. STILL CANT
RULE OUT AN ISOLD SEVERE STORM...BUT HEAVY RAINFALL IS PRIMARY
CONCERN INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH PWATS NEAR
1.7".
TONIGHT...COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST FROM CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
WILL APPROACH WESTERN NEW ENG TOWARD DAYBREAK AS MID LEVEL TROF
AMPLIFIES OVER THE GT LAKES. SNE WILL BE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE UPPER JET WHICH WILL PROVIDE GOOD FORCING ACTING ON
HIGH PWAT AIRMASS TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO SNE. SHOWERS
AND ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE INTERIOR IN THE
EVENING...THEN FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE COASTAL PLAIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS SE NEW ENG.
INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKENING OVERNIGHT AND EVEN ELEVATED
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL. STILL CANT RULE OUT ISOLD
TSTMS GIVEN DEEP SYNOPTIC FORCING...BUT LACK OF INSTABILITY
SHOULD LIMIT RAINFALL RATES. AREAS OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING LIKELY OVERNIGHT IN EASTERN NEW ENG.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE MID ATLC
REGION ON FRIDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. SFC LOW DEVELOPS ON
THE FRONT WHICH WILL SLOW ITS EWD PROGRESS ACROSS SNE. LOW LEVEL
JET WILL BE SITUATED JUST E OF CAPE COD IN THE MORNING WITH AXIS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL CONFINED TO THE CAPE/ISLANDS...BEFORE MOVING E
IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ALL DAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION WITH DEEP MOISTURE AXIS IN PLACE AND SFC WAVE
MOVING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IN FACT...THIS HAS A WINTER LOOK
TO IT WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND DEFORMATION AXIS
SETTING UP ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENG NW OF SFC LOW. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY FALL INTO THE 50S OVER NW HIGHER TERRAIN AS FRONT MOVES TO
THE EAST...BUT SHOULD REACH WELL INTO 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS SE
NEW ENG WHICH WILL REMAIN E OF THE BOUNDARY FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
THE FRONT SHOULD REACH THE I95 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND
* IMPROVEMENTS BEGIN ON MONDAY...WITH DRIER BUT COOL CONDITIONS
* MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARRIVE BY LATE NEXT WEEK
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
ALL OPERATIONAL MODELS NOW ON BOARD WITH DEVELOPING AMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48...WITH DIGGING TROUGHS ON
THE EAST AND WEST COASTS WITH BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S. THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THIS PERIOD. H5 CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE MID ATLC THEN SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG SLOWLY MOVING COLD
FRONT. LOWERED CONFIDENCE ON TIMING THE EXIT OF THE LOW...
HOWEVER. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH...SHOULD SEE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS BUT COOL TEMPS. TEMPS START TO MODERATE BY MID WEEK.
WENT ALONG WITH 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF AND THEIR ENSEMBLES...WHICH IS
PRETTY CLOSE TO THE WPC GUIDANCE.
DETAILS...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...CONTINUED CLOUDY SKIES WITH SHOWERS
AND COOL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
SURFACE LOW PRES TRAPPED WITH ITS UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW WILL
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
ANYTIME DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. CURRENT QPF FORECAST SUGGESTS
POSSIBILITY OF 1-2 INCHES OF GENERAL RAIN WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE CT VALLEY AND SW NH. HOWEVER...WITH THE CHANCE OF
THUNDER...COULD SEE LOCALIZED FLOODING ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND WESTERN AREAS WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL OF FLOODING ALONG RIVERS AND LOW
LYING AREAS.
TEMPS WILL BECOME RATHER CHILLY ACROSS S NH/W MA SAT NIGHT AS LOW
PRES SPINS ACROSS E MA...WITH N-NW WINDS IN PLACE. MOS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS READINGS FALLING BACK TO THE MID-UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. CAN NOT RULE OUT THE REMOTE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
MIXING OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF SW NH.
FOR NOW...LOOKS LIKE THE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY
MOVE NE DURING SUNDAY...BUT PRECIP WILL LINGER INTO SUN NIGHT
BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM SW-NE OVERNIGHT SUN. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE 50S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MONDAY...TRANSITION DAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA.
MAY STILL SEE SOME WIDELY SCT SHOWERS ACROSS S NH/NE MA EARLY BUT
WILL PUSH NE. WILL CONTINUE COOL...BUT READINGS SHOULD REACH THE
60S.
TUESDAY-THURSDAY...HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT TO THE MID ATLC COAST THEN
OFFSHORE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. EXPECT A DRY FORECAST WITH SLOWLY
MODERATING TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VARIABLE MVFR/IFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TREND TO WIDESPREAD
IFR/LIFR TONIGHT INTO FRI WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING. SHOWERS
AND SCT TSTMS CT VALLEY AND WESTERN NEW ENG THIS AFTERNOON WILL
EXPAND EAST ACROSS REST OF SNE TONIGHT INTO FRI...WITH FOCUS FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL SHIFTING TO THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE TONIGHT AND FRI
MORNING. LOCALIZED LLWS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT CAPE/ISLANDS AS LLJ
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT LOWERING CIGS TO IFR
TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS INCREASING. SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW
TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VERY
UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH VARIABILITY BETWEEN VFR CONDITIONS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA/SCT TSRA/FOG. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
DURING SUNDAY NIGHT FROM SW TO NE.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW PROB OF
MVFR CIGS ACROSS S NH/N MA EARLY MON THEN IMPROVING. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRIDAY.
LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING NEAR SCA GUSTS ON THE WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT...DIMINISHING WEST OF THE CANAL LATER TONIGHT AS THE LLJ
MOVES TO THE EAST. STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL LIMIT GUSTS SO
GALES NOT EXPECTED. PERSISTENT SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN BUILDING
SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON FRIDAY AS THE LLJ
MOVES E OF THE WATERS. EXPECT LOW VSBYS IN FOG AND LOCALLY HEAVY
SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOW PRES AND COLD FRONT
WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE WATERS...THEN STALL ALONG THE EASTERN NEAR
SHORE WATERS. EXPECT SW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT EARLY...THEN WILL
DIMINISH. LOW PROB FOR THUNDER. AREAS OF LOW VSBYS IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG. SEAS WILL REMAIN AOA 5 FT MAINLY OVER THE
OPEN WATERS.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE MAINLY FOR TIMING. AS LOW PRES
STALLS ACROSS E MA/MASS BAY...WILL SEE LIGHT/VRBL WINDS EXCEPT
N-NW OVER THE WESTERN WATERS LATER SAT...WHICH WILL SHIFT TOWARD
THE EASTERN WATERS DURING SUN. SEAS REMAIN HIGH. LOW CHANCE OF
TSTMS SAT-SAT NIGHT. LOW PROB OF GUSTS UP TO 25 KT SUN.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS BECOME W WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT MON...THEN DIMINISH MON NIGHT-TUE. SEAS AROUND 5
FT ON THE OUTER WATERS MON...THEN SUBSIDING.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RI SOUTH COAST THIS EVENING...
A MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHERLY FETCH OF SURFACE WIND AND INCREASING
LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE ENOUGH WATER INTO NARRAGANSETT
BAY FOR A SURGE AROUND OR EVEN JUST ABOVE A FOOT AT THE TIME OF
THE EVENING HIGH TIDE...ABOUT 2330Z. THIS WILL BE ON TOP OF A
PARTICULARLY HIGH SPRING TIDE. BOTH THE ESTOFS AND ETSS SURGE
GUIDANCE DEPICT ESSENTIALLY NO SURGE THIS EVENING BUT SEEMS LIKE
TOO MUCH OF A S TO SW WIND TO AVOID SOME SURGE...AND AT 15Z PVD
WAS ALREADY SHOWING A .4 FT SURGE AND CLIMBING. IN ADDITION...
SHORELINE FLOODING COULD BE EXACERBATED SOME BY ANY HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCING FRESH WATER RUNOFF THAT STRUGGLES TO DRAIN AT THE
SHORELINE DURING HIGH TIDE.
EAST COAST OF MA THIS WEEKEND...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH SURFACE LOW WOBBLING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND
INTO SUNDAY...EXPECT GUSTY NORTHERLY TO NORTHWEST WINDS ESPECIALLY
DURING THE DAYTIMES HOURS. AT BOSTON...A HIGH TIDE OF 11.9FT WILL
OCCUR ON FRIDAY NIGHT AT 11:21 PM AND 12.2 FT EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AT 12:12 AM. EXPECT A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS DURING THE
FRIDAY HIGH TIDE SO THIS IS LESS THAN A CONCERN. LOOKING AT THE
SUNDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE...NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY
HELP INCREASE THE SURGE ESPECIALLY FOR CAPE COD BAY. RIGHT NOW
ONLY EXPECT MINOR SPLASHOVER ACROSS NORTH FACING BEACHES. WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND UPDATE WITH THE LATEST FORECAST
GUIDANCE.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ002-
004>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ232.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ233-234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...THOMPSON
000
FXUS61 KBOX 232011
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
411 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AS LOW PRES
LINGERS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING
SHOWERY AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER...WITH IMPROVEMENT ON MONDAY.
SEASONABLE TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MOVING NE ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENG. ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG WHILE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE LESS THAN 6 C/KM. INSTABILITY IS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR SVR WX
DESPITE 30-40 KT 0-6KM SHEAR. NEAR TERM FORECAST OF SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE PARAMETER ALSO SUPPORTS LIMITED SVR POTENTIAL. STILL CANT
RULE OUT AN ISOLD SEVERE STORM...BUT HEAVY RAINFALL IS PRIMARY
CONCERN INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH PWATS NEAR
1.7".
TONIGHT...COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST FROM CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
WILL APPROACH WESTERN NEW ENG TOWARD DAYBREAK AS MID LEVEL TROF
AMPLIFIES OVER THE GT LAKES. SNE WILL BE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE UPPER JET WHICH WILL PROVIDE GOOD FORCING ACTING ON
HIGH PWAT AIRMASS TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO SNE. SHOWERS
AND ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE INTERIOR IN THE
EVENING...THEN FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE COASTAL PLAIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS SE NEW ENG.
INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKENING OVERNIGHT AND EVEN ELEVATED
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL. STILL CANT RULE OUT ISOLD
TSTMS GIVEN DEEP SYNOPTIC FORCING...BUT LACK OF INSTABILITY
SHOULD LIMIT RAINFALL RATES. AREAS OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING LIKELY OVERNIGHT IN EASTERN NEW ENG.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE MID ATLC
REGION ON FRIDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. SFC LOW DEVELOPS ON
THE FRONT WHICH WILL SLOW ITS EWD PROGRESS ACROSS SNE. LOW LEVEL
JET WILL BE SITUATED JUST E OF CAPE COD IN THE MORNING WITH AXIS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL CONFINED TO THE CAPE/ISLANDS...BEFORE MOVING E
IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ALL DAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION WITH DEEP MOISTURE AXIS IN PLACE AND SFC WAVE
MOVING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IN FACT...THIS HAS A WINTER LOOK
TO IT WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND DEFORMATION AXIS
SETTING UP ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENG NW OF SFC LOW. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY FALL INTO THE 50S OVER NW HIGHER TERRAIN AS FRONT MOVES TO
THE EAST...BUT SHOULD REACH WELL INTO 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS SE
NEW ENG WHICH WILL REMAIN E OF THE BOUNDARY FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
THE FRONT SHOULD REACH THE I95 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* WOBBLY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPS FOR THE
WEEKEND.
* IMPROVEMENTS BEGIN ON MONDAY...WITH DRY WX AND SEASONABLE TEMPS.
* TEMP IMPROVEMENT BY THE MID-WEEK.
CONFIDENCE LEVEL/MODEL GUIDANCE...LOW CONFIDENCE IN MODEL
PERFORMANCE...BUT MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. THE
MODELS/ENSEMBLES SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH WITH AN EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL WOBBLE OVER
THE REGION UNTIL PUSHING OUT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THANKS TO RIDGING
ACROSS THE MIDWEST. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A COOLER WEEKEND IS
IN STORE WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP TIMING AND PLACEMENT.
BELIEVE MONDAY WILL DRY OUT THE REGION WITH A MAINLY DRY FORECAST
FOR THE MID-WEEK. MODELS INDICATE A WARMING TREND BY LATE WEEK
WITH TEMPS ABOVE 80F.
DETAILS...
THE WEEKEND...LOOKS LIKE CLOUDY SKIES...SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPS
ARE IN STORE FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN
THE TIMING OF THE ELONGATED TROUGH WITH AN EMBEDDED CUT OFF LOW.
EXPECT THE LOW TO LINGER ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BEFORE PUSHING OUT BY
MONDAY. THIS LOW WILL BRING A COLD POOL OVER THE REGION ALLOWING
FOR TEMPS TO STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE 60S. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
WONT HELP MUCH EITHER. MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME SORT OF TROWAL
FEATURE FROM THE CUT OFF LOWS CYCLOGENESIS. STILL TOO HARD TO
PINPOINT BUT BELIEVE THAT AREAS ACROSS THE CT VALLEY HAVE THE BEST
POTENTIAL TO SEE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WITH QPF VALUES RANGING UP TO
AN 1.5 TO 2 INCHES TOTAL FOR THE WEEKEND. SINCE THIS PARTICULAR
REGION HAS HAD SEVERAL ROUND OF CONVECTION IN THE PAST FEW
DAYS...AND WITH MORE ON THE WAY...MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL
FLOODING AMONGST THE RIVERS AND LOW LYING AREAS. PRECIP SHOULD
BEGIN TO LIFT SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. KEPT ANY
INDICATION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD AS
THERE IF VERY LOW INSTABILITY AND CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT DIURNAL
HEATING. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT AS PWAT VALUES
WILL REACH UP TO AN INCH.
MONDAY AND BEYOND...MONDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY FROM THE SOGGY
COOL WEEKEND TO A WARM...DRY MID-WEEK. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF SHORE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE...ALLOWING FOR
MIDWEST RIDGE TO BUILD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER AND
HELP KEEP A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER CANNOT
RULE OUT A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO...ESP IF SEA BREEZES DEVELOPS. TEMPS
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MID-WEEK...WITH UPPER 60S FOR MONDAY TO
UPPER 70S BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VARIABLE MVFR/IFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TREND TO WIDESPREAD
IFR/LIFR TONIGHT INTO FRI WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING. SHOWERS
AND SCT TSTMS CT VALLEY AND WESTERN NEW ENG THIS AFTERNOON WILL
EXPAND EAST ACROSS REST OF SNE TONIGHT INTO FRI...WITH FOCUS FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL SHIFTING TO THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE TONIGHT AND FRI
MORNING. LOCALIZED LLWS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT CAPE/ISLANDS AS LLJ
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT LOWERING CIGS TO IFR
TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS INCREASING. SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW
TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
THE WEEKEND...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN
WITH VARIABILITY BETWEEN VFR CONDITIONS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
SHRA/TSRA/FOG. IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
MONDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRIDAY.
LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING NEAR SCA GUSTS ON THE WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT...DIMINISHING WEST OF THE CANAL LATER TONIGHT AS THE LLJ
MOVES TO THE EAST. STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL LIMIT GUSTS SO
GALES NOT EXPECTED. PERSISTENT SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN BUILDING
SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON FRIDAY AS THE LLJ
MOVES E OF THE WATERS. EXPECT LOW VSBYS IN FOG AND LOCALLY HEAVY
SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
THE WEEKEND...COLD FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE WATERS AS SURFACE
LOW STAYS OVER NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN ABOVE SCA FOR MOST
OF THE WEEKEND. GUSTY NW BRING GUSTS CLOSE TO GALE FORCE SAT INTO
SAT NIGHT WITH STRONG SCA NEEDED FOR SUNDAY.
MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RI SOUTH COAST THIS EVENING...
A MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHERLY FETCH OF SURFACE WIND AND INCREASING
LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE ENOUGH WATER INTO NARRAGANSETT
BAY FOR A SURGE AROUND OR EVEN JUST ABOVE A FOOT AT THE TIME OF
THE EVENING HIGH TIDE...ABOUT 2330Z. THIS WILL BE ON TOP OF A
PARTICULARLY HIGH SPRING TIDE. BOTH THE ESTOFS AND ETSS SURGE
GUIDANCE DEPICT ESSENTIALLY NO SURGE THIS EVENING BUT SEEMS LIKE
TOO MUCH OF A S TO SW WIND TO AVOID SOME SURGE...AND AT 15Z PVD
WAS ALREADY SHOWING A .4 FT SURGE AND CLIMBING. IN
ADDITION...SHORELINE FLOODING COULD BE EXACERBATED SOME BY ANY
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING FRESH WATER RUNOFF THAT STRUGGLES TO DRAIN
AT THE SHORELINE DURING HIGH TIDE.
EAST COAST OF MA THIS WEEKEND...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH SURFACE LOW WOBBLING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND
INTO SUNDAY...EXPECT GUSTY NORTHERLY TO NORTHWEST WINDS ESPECIALLY
DURING THE DAYTIMES HOURS. AT BOSTON...A HIGH TIDE OF 11.9FT WILL
OCCUR ON FRIDAY NIGHT AT 11:21 PM AND 12.2FT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
AT 12:12 AM. EXPECT A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS DURING THE FRIDAY HIGH
TIDE SO THIS IS LESS THAN A CONCERN. LOOKING AT THE SUNDAY MORNING
HIGH TIDE...NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY HELP INCREASE THE
SURGE ESPECIALLY FOR CAPE COD BAY. RIGHT NOW ONLY EXPECT MINOR
SPLASHOVER ACROSS NORTH FACING BEACHES. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AND UPDATE WITH THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ002-
004>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ232.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ233-234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-
236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
000
FXUS61 KBOX 231756
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
156 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATER TODAY. SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND FRIDAY. SHOWERY AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER
WILL OCCUR FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH IMPROVEMENTS ON MONDAY.
SEASONABLE TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
155 PM UPDATE...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO BERKSHIRES AND CT VALLEY. ENVIRONMENT IS
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES 500-1000 J/KG WHILE MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE LESS THAN 6 C/KM. 0-6KM SHEAR IS 35-40 KT SO THIS
IS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS BUT INSTABILITY
IS A LIMITING FACTOR DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND COOL TEMPS. STILL CANT
RULE OUT A FEW SEVERE STORMS IN THE WEST BUT MUCH BETTER CHANCE
IF CAPES WERE TO INCREASE TO 1500+ J/KG. NEAR TERM FORECAST OF
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE PARAMETER ALSO SUPPORTS LIMITED SVR POTENTIAL.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS PRIMARY CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERNNEW
ENG WITH PWATS NEAR 1.7". CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK.
WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED ACROSS NE MA. MAX TEMPS WILL HOLD IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S WITH 60S IMMEDIATE S COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT SHOULD PLOD ITS WAY EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE A NEAR
CERTAINTY. A PLUME OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.50-1.75
INCHES AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD ALSO MEAN LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AS WELL. ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO KEEP A MENTION OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.
USED A BLEND OF THE SLOWER 23/00Z NAM AND THE SLIGHTLY FASTER 23/00Z
GFS FOR THE TIMING OF THIS COLD FRONT. THIS WAS ALSO SUPPORTED
FAIRLY WELL BY THE 22/21Z SREF.
TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS MOS PRODUCTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* WOBBLY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPS FOR THE
WEEKEND.
* IMPROVEMENTS BEGIN ON MONDAY...WITH DRY WX AND SEASONABLE TEMPS.
* TEMP IMPROVEMENT BY THE MID-WEEK.
CONFIDENCE LEVEL/MODEL GUIDANCE...LOW CONFIDENCE IN MODEL
PERFORMANCE...BUT MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. THE
MODELS/ENSEMBLES SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH WITH AN EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL WOBBLE OVER
THE REGION UNTIL PUSHING OUT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THANKS TO RIDGING
ACROSS THE MIDWEST. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A COOLER WEEKEND IS
IN STORE WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP TIMING AND PLACEMENT.
BELIEVE MONDAY WILL DRY OUT THE REGION WITH A MAINLY DRY FORECAST
FOR THE MID-WEEK. MODELS INDICATE A WARMING TREND BY LATE WEEK
WITH TEMPS ABOVE 80F.
DETAILS...
THE WEEKEND...LOOKS LIKE CLOUDY SKIES...SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPS
ARE IN STORE FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN
THE TIMING OF THE ELONGATED TROUGH WITH AN EMBEDDED CUT OFF LOW.
EXPECT THE LOW TO LINGER ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BEFORE PUSHING OUT BY
MONDAY. THIS LOW WILL BRING A COLD POOL OVER THE REGION ALLOWING
FOR TEMPS TO STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE 60S. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
WONT HELP MUCH EITHER. MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME SORT OF TROWAL
FEATURE FROM THE CUT OFF LOWS CYCLOGENESIS. STILL TOO HARD TO
PINPOINT BUT BELIEVE THAT AREAS ACROSS THE CT VALLEY HAVE THE BEST
POTENTIAL TO SEE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WITH QPF VALUES RANGING UP TO
AN 1.5 TO 2 INCHES TOTAL FOR THE WEEKEND. SINCE THIS PARTICULAR
REGION HAS HAD SEVERAL ROUND OF CONVECTION IN THE PAST FEW
DAYS...AND WITH MORE ON THE WAY...MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL
FLOODING AMONGST THE RIVERS AND LOW LYING AREAS. PRECIP SHOULD
BEGIN TO LIFT SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. KEPT ANY
INDICATION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD AS
THERE IF VERY LOW INSTABILITY AND CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT DIURNAL
HEATING. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT AS PWAT VALUES
WILL REACH UP TO AN INCH.
MONDAY AND BEYOND...MONDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY FROM THE SOGGY
COOL WEEKEND TO A WARM...DRY MID-WEEK. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF SHORE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE...ALLOWING FOR
MIDWEST RIDGE TO BUILD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER AND
HELP KEEP A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER CANNOT
RULE OUT A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO...ESP IF SEA BREEZES DEVELOPS. TEMPS
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MID-WEEK...WITH UPPER 60S FOR MONDAY TO
UPPER 70S BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VARIABLE MVFR/IFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TREND TO WIDESPREAD
IFR/LIFR TONIGHT INTO FRI WITH AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING. SHOWERS
AND SCT TSTMS CT VALLEY AND WESTERN NEW ENG THIS AFTERNOON WILL
EXPAND EAST ACROSS REST OF SNE TONIGHT INTO FRI...WITH FOCUS FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL SHIFTING TO THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE TONIGHT AND FRI
MORNING. LOCALIZED LLWS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT CAPE/ISLANDS AS LLJ
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT LOWERING CIGS TO IFR
TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS INCREASING. SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW
TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
THE WEEKEND...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN
WITH VARIABILITY BETWEEN VFR CONDITIONS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
SHRA/TSRA/FOG. IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
MONDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE TODAY. A FRONT IS STALLED ACROSS THE EASTERN
WATERS THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
LATER TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH POTENTIAL
FOR 25 KT GUSTS. THIS WIND WILL CAUSE BUILDING SEAS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH 5-8 FOOT SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN EXPOSED WATERS AND
POSSIBLY THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS.
EXPECT LOW VSBYS IN FOG AND LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
TONIGHT-FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN
WEST OF THE WATERS...SO EXPECTING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
REMAIN GUSTY. LOW PROBABILITY FOR GALE-FORCE GUSTS. SEAS WELL
ABOVE 5 FT...MAINLY ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
THE WEEKEND...COLD FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE WATERS AS SURFACE
LOW STAYS OVER NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN ABOVE SCA FOR MOST
OF THE WEEKEND. GUSTY NW BRING GUSTS CLOSE TO GALE FORCE SAT INTO
SAT NIGHT WITH STRONG SCA NEEDED FOR SUNDAY.
MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RI SOUTH COAST THIS EVENING...
A MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHERLY FETCH OF SURFACE WIND AND INCREASING
LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE ENOUGH WATER INTO NARRAGANSETT
BAY FOR A SURGE AROUND OR EVEN JUST ABOVE A FOOT AT THE TIME OF
THE EVENING HIGH TIDE...ABOUT 2330Z. THIS WILL BE ON TOP OF A
PARTICULARLY HIGH SPRING TIDE. BOTH THE ESTOFS AND ETSS SURGE
GUIDANCE DEPICT ESSENTIALLY NO SURGE THIS EVENING BUT SEEMS LIKE
TOO MUCH OF A S TO SW WIND TO AVOID SOME SURGE...AND AT 15Z PVD
WAS ALREADY SHOWING A .4 FT SURGE AND CLIMBING. IN
ADDITION...SHORELINE FLOODING COULD BE EXACERBATED SOME BY ANY
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING FRESH WATER RUNOFF THAT STRUGGLES TO DRAIN
AT THE SHORELINE DURING HIGH TIDE.
EAST COAST OF MA THIS WEEKEND...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH SURFACE LOW WOBBLING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND
INTO SUNDAY...EXPECT GUSTY NORTHERLY TO NORTHWEST WINDS ESPECIALLY
DURING THE DAYTIMES HOURS. AT BOSTON...A HIGH TIDE OF 11.9FT WILL
OCCUR ON FRIDAY NIGHT AT 11:21 PM AND 12.2FT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
AT 12:12 AM. EXPECT A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS DURING THE FRIDAY HIGH
TIDE SO THIS IS LESS THAN A CONCERN. LOOKING AT THE SUNDAY MORNING
HIGH TIDE...NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY HELP INCREASE THE
SURGE ESPECIALLY FOR CAPE COD BAY. RIGHT NOW ONLY EXPECT MINOR
SPLASHOVER ACROSS NORTH FACING BEACHES. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AND UPDATE WITH THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
RIZ002-004>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ230>234-236-
251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-
254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
000
FXUS61 KBOX 231516
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1116 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATER TODAY. SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND FRIDAY. SHOWERY AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER
WILL OCCUR FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH IMPROVEMENTS ON MONDAY.
SEASONABLE TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM UPDATE...
SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN LIFTING NORTH FROM
CT COAST AND INTO INTERIOR SNE THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY ASSOCD WITH
NOSE OF A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
SBCAPES NEAR ZERO BUT MUCAPES 500-1000 J/KG.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD LIFT TO THE N BY MIDDAY THEN WILL WATCH FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION ACROSS NYS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR AS
THERE IS PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN WHICH WILL LIMIT
SUNSHINE. CAPES MAY REACH 500-1000 J/KG BUT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR 5.5 C/KM WHICH IS UNFAVORABLE. GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING INCREASING MID LEVEL LIFT MOVING INTO W ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON SO SHOULD SEE INCREASING COVERAGE OF CONVECTION MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY THINK THE SEVERE THREAT
IS MARGINAL BUT IF WE CAN GET CAPES ABOVE 1000 J/KG THERE IS
ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZATION OF A FEW
SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 1.5"+ AND KI INTO THE MID 30S.
WARM FRONT STILL HANGING ACROSS NE MA WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S. BUT
DECENT SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL EVENTUALLY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH
FRONT JUMPING TO THE N. CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT HEATING WITH MAX
TEMPS HOLDING IN THE 70S...EXCEPT 60S S COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT SHOULD PLOD ITS WAY EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE A NEAR
CERTAINTY. A PLUME OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.50-1.75
INCHES AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD ALSO MEAN LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AS WELL. ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO KEEP A MENTION OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.
USED A BLEND OF THE SLOWER 23/00Z NAM AND THE SLIGHTLY FASTER 23/00Z
GFS FOR THE TIMING OF THIS COLD FRONT. THIS WAS ALSO SUPPORTED
FAIRLY WELL BY THE 22/21Z SREF.
TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS MOS PRODUCTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* WOBBLY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPS FOR THE
WEEKEND.
* IMPROVEMENTS BEGIN ON MONDAY...WITH DRY WX AND SEASONABLE TEMPS.
* TEMP IMPROVEMENT BY THE MID-WEEK.
CONFIDENCE LEVEL/MODEL GUIDANCE...LOW CONFIDENCE IN MODEL
PERFORMANCE...BUT MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. THE
MODELS/ENSEMBLES SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH WITH AN EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL WOBBLE OVER
THE REGION UNTIL PUSHING OUT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THANKS TO RIDGING
ACROSS THE MIDWEST. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A COOLER WEEKEND IS
IN STORE WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP TIMING AND PLACEMENT.
BELIEVE MONDAY WILL DRY OUT THE REGION WITH A MAINLY DRY FORECAST
FOR THE MID-WEEK. MODELS INDICATE A WARMING TREND BY LATE WEEK
WITH TEMPS ABOVE 80F.
DETAILS...
THE WEEKEND...LOOKS LIKE CLOUDY SKIES...SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPS
ARE IN STORE FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN
THE TIMING OF THE ELONGATED TROUGH WITH AN EMBEDDED CUT OFF LOW.
EXPECT THE LOW TO LINGER ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BEFORE PUSHING OUT BY
MONDAY. THIS LOW WILL BRING A COLD POOL OVER THE REGION ALLOWING
FOR TEMPS TO STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE 60S. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
WONT HELP MUCH EITHER. MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME SORT OF TROWAL
FEATURE FROM THE CUT OFF LOWS CYCLOGENESIS. STILL TOO HARD TO
PINPOINT BUT BELIEVE THAT AREAS ACROSS THE CT VALLEY HAVE THE BEST
POTENTIAL TO SEE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WITH QPF VALUES RANGING UP TO
AN 1.5 TO 2 INCHES TOTAL FOR THE WEEKEND. SINCE THIS PARTICULAR
REGION HAS HAD SEVERAL ROUND OF CONVECTION IN THE PAST FEW
DAYS...AND WITH MORE ON THE WAY...MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL
FLOODING AMONGST THE RIVERS AND LOW LYING AREAS. PRECIP SHOULD
BEGIN TO LIFT SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. KEPT ANY
INDICATION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD AS
THERE IF VERY LOW INSTABILITY AND CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT DIURNAL
HEATING. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT AS PWAT VALUES
WILL REACH UP TO AN INCH.
MONDAY AND BEYOND...MONDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY FROM THE SOGGY
COOL WEEKEND TO A WARM...DRY MID-WEEK. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF SHORE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE...ALLOWING FOR
MIDWEST RIDGE TO BUILD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER AND
HELP KEEP A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER CANNOT
RULE OUT A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO...ESP IF SEA BREEZES DEVELOPS. TEMPS
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MID-WEEK...WITH UPPER 60S FOR MONDAY TO
UPPER 70S BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF CEILINGS AND CONVECTION.
TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER. FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY LIFT THIS MORNING. THE TAFS MAY BE TOO
FAST IN LIFTING CIGS/VSBYS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REGENERATE DURING THE DAY
WITH MORE STRONG STORMS IN THE CT VALLEY AND CENTRAL HILLS.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VERY UNSETTLED
PATTERN WITH VARIABILITY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN
SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS AND FOG. TIMING OF CONDITIONS AT SPECIFIC
TERMINALS VERY DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AT THIS TIME.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS AND CEILINGS...
MAINLY DUE TO TIMING ISSUES OF A WARM FRONT.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF CONVECTION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE BRIEF IFR IN AN AREA OF TSRA.
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL OR WIND GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS IN ISOLATED TSTMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
THE WEEKEND...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN
WITH VARIABILITY BETWEEN VFR CONDITIONS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
SHRA/TSRA/FOG. IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
MONDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE TODAY. A FRONT IS STALLED ACROSS THE EASTERN
WATERS THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
LATER TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH POTENTIAL
FOR 25 KT GUSTS. THIS WIND WILL CAUSE BUILDING SEAS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH 5-8 FOOT SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN EXPOSED WATERS AND
POSSIBLY THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS.
EXPECT LOW VSBYS IN FOG AND LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
TONIGHT-FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN
WEST OF THE WATERS...SO EXPECTING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
REMAIN GUSTY. LOW PROBABILITY FOR GALE-FORCE GUSTS. SEAS WELL
ABOVE 5 FT...MAINLY ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
THE WEEKEND...COLD FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE WATERS AS SURFACE
LOW STAYS OVER NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN ABOVE SCA FOR MOST
OF THE WEEKEND. GUSTY NW BRING GUSTS CLOSE TO GALE FORCE SAT INTO
SAT NIGHT WITH STRONG SCA NEEDED FOR SUNDAY.
MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RI SOUTH COAST THIS EVENING...
A MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHERLY FETCH OF SURFACE WIND AND INCREASING
LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE ENOUGH WATER INTO NARRAGANSETT
BAY FOR A SURGE AROUND OR EVEN JUST ABOVE A FOOT AT THE TIME OF
THE EVENING HIGH TIDE...ABOUT 2330Z. THIS WILL BE ON TOP OF A
PARTICULARLY HIGH SPRING TIDE. BOTH THE ESTOFS AND ETSS SURGE
GUIDANCE DEPICT ESSENTIALLY NO SURGE THIS EVENING BUT SEEMS LIKE
TOO MUCH OF A S TO SW WIND TO AVOID SOME SURGE...AND AT 15Z PVD
WAS ALREADY SHOWING A .4 FT SURGE AND CLIMBING. IN
ADDITION...SHORELINE FLOODING COULD BE EXACERBATED SOME BY ANY
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING FRESH WATER RUNOFF THAT STRUGGLES TO DRAIN
AT THE SHORELINE DURING HIGH TIDE.
EAST COAST OF MA THIS WEEKEND...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH SURFACE LOW WOBBLING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND
INTO SUNDAY...EXPECT GUSTY NORTHERLY TO NORTHWEST WINDS ESPECIALLY
DURING THE DAYTIMES HOURS. AT BOSTON...A HIGH TIDE OF 11.9FT WILL
OCCUR ON FRIDAY NIGHT AT 11:21 PM AND 12.2FT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
AT 12:12 AM. EXPECT A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS DURING THE FRIDAY HIGH
TIDE SO THIS IS LESS THAN A CONCERN. LOOKING AT THE SUNDAY MORNING
HIGH TIDE...NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY HELP INCREASE THE
SURGE ESPECIALLY FOR CAPE COD BAY. RIGHT NOW ONLY EXPECT MINOR
SPLASHOVER ACROSS NORTH FACING BEACHES. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AND UPDATE WITH THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
RIZ002-004>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>234-236-
251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ230.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-
254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...THOMPSON/BELK
000
FXUS61 KBOX 231434
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1034 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATER TODAY. SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND FRIDAY. SHOWERY AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER
WILL OCCUR FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH IMPROVEMENTS ON MONDAY.
SEASONABLE TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM UPDATE...
SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN LIFTING NORTH FROM
CT COAST AND INTO INTERIOR SNE THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY ASSOCD WITH
NOSE OF A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
SBCAPES NEAR ZERO BUT MUCAPES 500-1000 J/KG.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD LIFT TO THE N BY MIDDAY THEN WILL WATCH FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION ACROSS NYS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR AS
THERE IS PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN WHICH WILL LIMIT
SUNSHINE. CAPES MAY REACH 500-1000 J/KG BUT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR 5.5 C/KM WHICH IS UNFAVORABLE. GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING INCREASING MID LEVEL LIFT MOVING INTO W ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON SO SHOULD SEE INCREASING COVERAGE OF CONVECTION MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY THINK THE SEVERE THREAT
IS MARGINAL BUT IF WE CAN GET CAPES ABOVE 1000 J/KG THERE IS
ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZATION OF A FEW
SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 1.5"+ AND KI INTO THE MID 30S.
WARM FRONT STILL HANGING ACROSS NE MA WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S. BUT
DECENT SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL EVENTUALLY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH
FRONT JUMPING TO THE N. CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT HEATING WITH MAX
TEMPS HOLDING IN THE 70S...EXCEPT 60S S COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT SHOULD PLOD ITS WAY EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE A NEAR
CERTAINTY. A PLUME OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.50-1.75
INCHES AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD ALSO MEAN LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AS WELL. ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO KEEP A MENTION OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.
USED A BLEND OF THE SLOWER 23/00Z NAM AND THE SLIGHTLY FASTER 23/00Z
GFS FOR THE TIMING OF THIS COLD FRONT. THIS WAS ALSO SUPPORTED
FAIRLY WELL BY THE 22/21Z SREF.
TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS MOS PRODUCTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* WOBBLY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPS FOR THE
WEEKEND.
* IMPROVEMENTS BEGIN ON MONDAY...WITH DRY WX AND SEASONABLE TEMPS.
* TEMP IMPROVEMENT BY THE MID-WEEK.
CONFIDENCE LEVEL/MODEL GUIDANCE...LOW CONFIDENCE IN MODEL
PERFORMANCE...BUT MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. THE
MODELS/ENSEMBLES SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH WITH AN EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL WOBBLE OVER
THE REGION UNTIL PUSHING OUT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THANKS TO RIDGING
ACROSS THE MIDWEST. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A COOLER WEEKEND IS
IN STORE WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP TIMING AND PLACEMENT.
BELIEVE MONDAY WILL DRY OUT THE REGION WITH A MAINLY DRY FORECAST
FOR THE MID-WEEK. MODELS INDICATE A WARMING TREND BY LATE WEEK
WITH TEMPS ABOVE 80F.
DETAILS...
THE WEEKEND...LOOKS LIKE CLOUDY SKIES...SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPS
ARE IN STORE FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN
THE TIMING OF THE ELONGATED TROUGH WITH AN EMBEDDED CUT OFF LOW.
EXPECT THE LOW TO LINGER ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BEFORE PUSHING OUT BY
MONDAY. THIS LOW WILL BRING A COLD POOL OVER THE REGION ALLOWING
FOR TEMPS TO STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE 60S. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
WONT HELP MUCH EITHER. MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME SORT OF TROWAL
FEATURE FROM THE CUT OFF LOWS CYCLOGENESIS. STILL TOO HARD TO
PINPOINT BUT BELIEVE THAT AREAS ACROSS THE CT VALLEY HAVE THE BEST
POTENTIAL TO SEE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WITH QPF VALUES RANGING UP TO
AN 1.5 TO 2 INCHES TOTAL FOR THE WEEKEND. SINCE THIS PARTICULAR
REGION HAS HAD SEVERAL ROUND OF CONVECTION IN THE PAST FEW
DAYS...AND WITH MORE ON THE WAY...MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL
FLOODING AMONGST THE RIVERS AND LOW LYING AREAS. PRECIP SHOULD
BEGIN TO LIFT SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. KEPT ANY
INDICATION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD AS
THERE IF VERY LOW INSTABILITY AND CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT DIURNAL
HEATING. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT AS PWAT VALUES
WILL REACH UP TO AN INCH.
MONDAY AND BEYOND...MONDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY FROM THE SOGGY
COOL WEEKEND TO A WARM...DRY MID-WEEK. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF SHORE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE...ALLOWING FOR
MIDWEST RIDGE TO BUILD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER AND
HELP KEEP A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER CANNOT
RULE OUT A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO...ESP IF SEA BREEZES DEVELOPS. TEMPS
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MID-WEEK...WITH UPPER 60S FOR MONDAY TO
UPPER 70S BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF CEILINGS AND CONVECTION.
TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER. FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY LIFT THIS MORNING. THE TAFS MAY BE TOO
FAST IN LIFTING CIGS/VSBYS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REGENERATE DURING THE DAY
WITH MORE STRONG STORMS IN THE CT VALLEY AND CENTRAL HILLS.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VERY UNSETTLED
PATTERN WITH VARIABILITY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN
SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS AND FOG. TIMING OF CONDITIONS AT SPECIFIC
TERMINALS VERY DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AT THIS TIME.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS AND CEILINGS...
MAINLY DUE TO TIMING ISSUES OF A WARM FRONT.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF CONVECTION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE BRIEF IFR IN AN AREA OF TSRA.
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL OR WIND GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS IN ISOLATED TSTMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
THE WEEKEND...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN
WITH VARIABILITY BETWEEN VFR CONDITIONS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
SHRA/TSRA/FOG. IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
MONDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE TODAY. A FRONT IS STALLED ACROSS THE EASTERN
WATERS THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
LATER TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH POTENTIAL
FOR 25 KT GUSTS. THIS WIND WILL CAUSE BUILDING SEAS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH 5-8 FOOT SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN EXPOSED WATERS AND
POSSIBLY THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS.
EXPECT LOW VSBYS IN FOG AND LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
TONIGHT-FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN
WEST OF THE WATERS...SO EXPECTING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
REMAIN GUSTY. LOW PROBABILITY FOR GALE-FORCE GUSTS. SEAS WELL
ABOVE 5 FT...MAINLY ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
THE WEEKEND...COLD FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE WATERS AS SURFACE
LOW STAYS OVER NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN ABOVE SCA FOR MOST
OF THE WEEKEND. GUSTY NW BRING GUSTS CLOSE TO GALE FORCE SAT INTO
SAT NIGHT WITH STRONG SCA NEEDED FOR SUNDAY.
MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH SURFACE LOW WOBBLING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND
INTO SUNDAY...EXPECT GUSTY NORTHERLY TO NORTHWEST WINDS ESPECIALLY
DURING THE DAYTIMES HOURS. AT BOSTON...A HIGH TIDE OF 11.9FT WILL
OCCUR ON FRIDAY NIGHT AT 11:21 PM AND 12.2FT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
AT 12:12 AM. EXPECT A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS DURING THE FRIDAY HIGH
TIDE SO THIS IS LESS THAN A CONCERN. LOOKING AT THE SUNDAY MORNING
HIGH TIDE...NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY HELP INCREASE THE
SURGE ESPECIALLY FOR CAPE COD BAY. RIGHT NOW ONLY EXPECT MINOR
SPLASHOVER ACROSS NORTH FACING BEACHES. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AND UPDATE WITH THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>234-236-
251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ230.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-
254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
000
FXUS61 KBOX 231128
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
728 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATER TODAY. SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND FRIDAY. SHOWERY AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER
WILL OCCUR FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH IMPROVEMENTS ON MONDAY.
SEASONABLE TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
730 AM UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERY AND ISOLATED THUNDER CONTINUES TO FESTER OVER
LONG ISLAND. THESE CELLS CONTINUE A NORTHEAST PATH ACROSS CT AND
RI INTO CENTRAL MASS. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE WELL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THINKING STORM CELLS WILL MOVE QUICKLY ENOUGH
TODAY TO MITIGATE THE OCCURRENCE OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL.
THIS POTENTIAL WILL STILL NEED TO BE REEVALUATED BY THE NEXT
SHIFT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STILL RATHER TRANQUIL ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN COMPARISON.
LOTS OF STRATUS WITH AREAS OF POOR VISIBILITY IN FOG AND DRIZZLE
TO CONTEND WITH. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL LOOKS TO BE STALLED
ALONG I-90 IN MA. 23/00Z GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED WITH THE MOVEMENT
OF THIS FRONT...AND THINK THE GUIDANCE IS TOO QUICK TO PUSH THIS
FRONT NORTH. ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT BASED ON OBSERVED
TRENDS FOR THIS MORNING. CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THIS FRONT WILL
PUSH NORTH QUICKLY THIS MORNING AFTER SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE...EXPECTING A LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY TODAY. A BLEND OF THE
23/00Z GFS AND NAM LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SOLUTION FOR TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE. THIS SHOULD LEAVE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF THIS LOW FOR MOST OF TODAY. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LIMITED BY
THE COPIOUS CLOUDS TO START THE DAY...WITH SOME BREAKS POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. MODEST LOW-LEVEL WINDS COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
ORGANIZATION WHERE SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MUCH
LIKE THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. AREAS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE MORE AT RISK FOR ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS MOS PRODUCTS. DID ADJUST
TEMPERATURE TRENDS IN THE NEAR-TERM TO GO ALONG WITH SLOWER TIMING
OF WARM FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT SHOULD PLOD ITS WAY EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE A NEAR
CERTAINTY. A PLUME OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.50-1.75
INCHES AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD ALSO MEAN LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AS WELL. ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO KEEP A MENTION OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.
USED A BLEND OF THE SLOWER 23/00Z NAM AND THE SLIGHTLY FASTER 23/00Z
GFS FOR THE TIMING OF THIS COLD FRONT. THIS WAS ALSO SUPPORTED
FAIRLY WELL BY THE 22/21Z SREF.
TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS MOS PRODUCTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* WOBBLY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPS FOR THE
WEEKEND.
* IMPROVEMENTS BEGIN ON MONDAY...WITH DRY WX AND SEASONABLE TEMPS.
* TEMP IMPROVEMENT BY THE MID-WEEK.
CONFIDENCE LEVEL/MODEL GUIDANCE...LOW CONFIDENCE IN MODEL
PERFORMANCE...BUT MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. THE
MODELS/ENSEMBLES SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH WITH AN EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL WOBBLE OVER
THE REGION UNTIL PUSHING OUT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THANKS TO RIDGING
ACROSS THE MIDWEST. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A COOLER WEEKEND IS
IN STORE WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP TIMING AND PLACEMENT.
BELIEVE MONDAY WILL DRY OUT THE REGION WITH A MAINLY DRY FORECAST
FOR THE MID-WEEK. MODELS INDICATE A WARMING TREND BY LATE WEEK
WITH TEMPS ABOVE 80F.
DETAILS...
THE WEEKEND...LOOKS LIKE CLOUDY SKIES...SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPS
ARE IN STORE FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN
THE TIMING OF THE ELONGATED TROUGH WITH AN EMBEDDED CUT OFF LOW.
EXPECT THE LOW TO LINGER ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BEFORE PUSHING OUT BY
MONDAY. THIS LOW WILL BRING A COLD POOL OVER THE REGION ALLOWING
FOR TEMPS TO STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE 60S. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
WONT HELP MUCH EITHER. MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME SORT OF TROWAL
FEATURE FROM THE CUT OFF LOWS CYCLOGENESIS. STILL TOO HARD TO
PINPOINT BUT BELIEVE THAT AREAS ACROSS THE CT VALLEY HAVE THE BEST
POTENTIAL TO SEE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WITH QPF VALUES RANGING UP TO
AN 1.5 TO 2 INCHES TOTAL FOR THE WEEKEND. SINCE THIS PARTICULAR
REGION HAS HAD SEVERAL ROUND OF CONVECTION IN THE PAST FEW
DAYS...AND WITH MORE ON THE WAY...MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL
FLOODING AMONGST THE RIVERS AND LOW LYING AREAS. PRECIP SHOULD
BEGIN TO LIFT SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. KEPT ANY
INDICATION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD AS
THERE IF VERY LOW INSTABILITY AND CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT DIURNAL
HEATING. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT AS PWAT VALUES
WILL REACH UP TO AN INCH.
MONDAY AND BEYOND...MONDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY FROM THE SOGGY
COOL WEEKEND TO A WARM...DRY MID-WEEK. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF SHORE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE...ALLOWING FOR
MIDWEST RIDGE TO BUILD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER AND
HELP KEEP A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER CANNOT
RULE OUT A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO...ESP IF SEA BREEZES DEVELOPS. TEMPS
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MID-WEEK...WITH UPPER 60S FOR MONDAY TO
UPPER 70S BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF CEILINGS AND CONVECTION.
TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER. FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY LIFT THIS MORNING. THE TAFS MAY BE TOO
FAST IN LIFTING CIGS/VSBYS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REGENERATE DURING THE DAY
WITH MORE STRONG STORMS IN THE CT VALLEY AND CENTRAL HILLS.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VERY UNSETTLED
PATTERN WITH VARIABILITY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN
SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS AND FOG. TIMING OF CONDITIONS AT SPECIFIC
TERMINALS VERY DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AT THIS TIME.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS AND CEILINGS...
MAINLY DUE TO TIMING ISSUES OF A WARM FRONT.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF CONVECTION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE BRIEF IFR IN AN AREA OF TSRA.
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL OR WIND GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS IN ISOLATED TSTMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
THE WEEKEND...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN
WITH VARIABILITY BETWEEN VFR CONDITIONS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
SHRA/TSRA/FOG. IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
MONDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE TODAY. A FRONT IS STALLED ACROSS THE EASTERN
WATERS THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
LATER TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH POTENTIAL
FOR 25 KT GUSTS. THIS WIND WILL CAUSE BUILDING SEAS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH 5-8 FOOT SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN EXPOSED WATERS AND
POSSIBLY THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS.
EXPECT LOW VSBYS IN FOG AND LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
TONIGHT-FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN
WEST OF THE WATERS...SO EXPECTING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
REMAIN GUSTY. LOW PROBABILITY FOR GALE-FORCE GUSTS. SEAS WELL
ABOVE 5 FT...MAINLY ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
THE WEEKEND...COLD FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE WATERS AS SURFACE
LOW STAYS OVER NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN ABOVE SCA FOR MOST
OF THE WEEKEND. GUSTY NW BRING GUSTS CLOSE TO GALE FORCE SAT INTO
SAT NIGHT WITH STRONG SCA NEEDED FOR SUNDAY.
MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH SURFACE LOW WOBBLING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND
INTO SUNDAY...EXPECT GUSTY NORTHERLY TO NORTHWEST WINDS ESPECIALLY
DURING THE DAYTIMES HOURS. AT BOSTON...A HIGH TIDE OF 11.9FT WILL
OCCUR ON FRIDAY NIGHT AT 11:21 PM AND 12.2FT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
AT 12:12 AM. EXPECT A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS DURING THE FRIDAY HIGH
TIDE SO THIS IS LESS THAN A CONCERN. LOOKING AT THE SUNDAY MORNING
HIGH TIDE...NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY HELP INCREASE THE
SURGE ESPECIALLY FOR CAPE COD BAY. RIGHT NOW ONLY EXPECT MINOR
SPLASHOVER ACROSS NORTH FACING BEACHES. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AND UPDATE WITH THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ232>234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ230-231-236-
251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-
254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
000
FXUS61 KBOX 230837
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
437 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATER TODAY. SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND FRIDAY. SHOWERY AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER
WILL OCCUR FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH IMPROVEMENTS ON MONDAY.
SEASONABLE TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
430 AM UPDATE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD APPROACH CENTRAL
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD DAYBREAK...THEN BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
THROUGH THE DAY. DID GIVE SOME THOUGHT TO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
GIVEN THE HIGH HUMIDITY. THINKING STORM CELLS WILL MOVE QUICKLY
ENOUGH TODAY TO MITIGATE THE OCCURRENCE OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL. THIS POTENTIAL WILL STILL NEED TO BE REEVALUATED BY THE
NEXT SHIFT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STILL RATHER TRANQUIL ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN COMPARISON.
LOTS OF STRATUS WITH AREAS OF POOR VISIBILITY IN FOG AND DRIZZLE
TO CONTEND WITH. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL LOOKS TO BE STALLED
ALONG I-90 IN MA. 23/00Z GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED WITH THE MOVEMENT
OF THIS FRONT...AND THINK THE GUIDANCE IS TOO QUICK TO PUSH THIS
FRONT NORTH. ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT BASED ON OBSERVED
TRENDS FOR THIS MORNING. CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THIS FRONT WILL
PUSH NORTH QUICKLY THIS MORNING AFTER SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE...EXPECTING A LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY TODAY. A BLEND OF THE
23/00Z GFS AND NAM LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SOLUTION FOR TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE. THIS SHOULD LEAVE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF THIS LOW FOR MOST OF TODAY. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LIMITED BY
THE COPIOUS CLOUDS TO START THE DAY...WITH SOME BREAKS POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. MODEST LOW-LEVEL WINDS COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
ORGANIZATION WHERE SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MUCH
LIKE THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. AREAS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE MORE AT RISK FOR ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS MOS PRODUCTS. DID ADJUST
TEMPERATURE TRENDS IN THE NEAR-TERM TO GO ALONG WITH SLOWER TIMING
OF WARM FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT SHOULD PLOD ITS WAY EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE A NEAR
CERTAINTY. A PLUME OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.50-1.75
INCHES AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD ALSO MEAN LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AS WELL. ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO KEEP A MENTION OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.
USED A BLEND OF THE SLOWER 23/00Z NAM AND THE SLIGHTLY FASTER 23/00Z
GFS FOR THE TIMING OF THIS COLD FRONT. THIS WAS ALSO SUPPORTED
FAIRLY WELL BY THE 22/21Z SREF.
TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS MOS PRODUCTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* WOBBLY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPS FOR THE
WEEKEND.
* IMPROVEMENTS BEGIN ON MONDAY...WITH DRY WX AND SEASONABLE TEMPS.
* TEMP IMPROVEMENT BY THE MID-WEEK.
CONFIDENCE LEVEL/MODEL GUIDANCE...LOW CONFIDENCE IN MODEL
PERFORMANCE...BUT MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. THE
MODELS/ENSEMBLES SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH WITH AN EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL WOBBLE OVER
THE REGION UNTIL PUSHING OUT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THANKS TO RIDGING
ACROSS THE MIDWEST. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A COOLER WEEKEND IS
IN STORE WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP TIMING AND PLACEMENT.
BELIEVE MONDAY WILL DRY OUT THE REGION WITH A MAINLY DRY FORECAST
FOR THE MID-WEEK. MODELS INDICATE A WARMING TREND BY LATE WEEK
WITH TEMPS ABOVE 80F.
DETAILS...
THE WEEKEND...LOOKS LIKE CLOUDY SKIES...SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPS
ARE IN STORE FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN
THE TIMING OF THE ELONGATED TROUGH WITH AN EMBEDDED CUT OFF LOW.
EXPECT THE LOW TO LINGER ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BEFORE PUSHING OUT BY
MONDAY. THIS LOW WILL BRING A COLD POOL OVER THE REGION ALLOWING
FOR TEMPS TO STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE 60S. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
WONT HELP MUCH EITHER. MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME SORT OF TROWAL
FEATURE FROM THE CUT OFF LOWS CYCLOGENESIS. STILL TOO HARD TO
PINPOINT BUT BELIEVE THAT AREAS ACROSS THE CT VALLEY HAVE THE BEST
POTENTIAL TO SEE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WITH QPF VALUES RANGING UP TO
AN 1.5 TO 2 INCHES TOTAL FOR THE WEEKEND. SINCE THIS PARTICULAR
REGION HAS HAD SEVERAL ROUND OF CONVECTION IN THE PAST FEW
DAYS...AND WITH MORE ON THE WAY...MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL
FLOODING AMONGST THE RIVERS AND LOW LYING AREAS. PRECIP SHOULD
BEGIN TO LIFT SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. KEPT ANY
INDICATION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD AS
THERE IF VERY LOW INSTABILITY AND CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT DIURNAL
HEATING. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT AS PWAT VALUES
WILL REACH UP TO AN INCH.
MONDAY AND BEYOND...MONDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY FROM THE SOGGY
COOL WEEKEND TO A WARM...DRY MID-WEEK. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF SHORE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE...ALLOWING FOR
MIDWEST RIDGE TO BUILD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER AND
HELP KEEP A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER CANNOT
RULE OUT A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO...ESP IF SEA BREEZES DEVELOPS. TEMPS
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MID-WEEK...WITH UPPER 60S FOR MONDAY TO
UPPER 70S BY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF CEILINGS AND CONVECTION.
THROUGH 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT CIGS TO BE MAINLY IFR-
LIFR...THOUGH CIGS MAY RISE TO MVFR AT TIMES ACROSS THE CT VALLEY.
VSBYS ALONG THE COAST WILL ALSO REMAIN AT IFR-LIFR. MAY ALSO SEE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO WESTERN AREAS LATE.
TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER. FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY LIFT THIS MORNING. THE TAFS MAY BE TOO
FAST IN LIFTING CIGS/VSBYS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REGENERATE DURING THE DAY
WITH MORE STRONG STORMS IN THE CT VALLEY AND CENTRAL HILLS.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VERY UNSETTLED
PATTERN WITH VARIABILITY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN
SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS AND FOG. TIMING OF CONDITIONS AT SPECIFIC
TERMINALS VERY DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AT THIS TIME.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS AND CEILINGS...
MAINLY DUE TO TIMING ISSUES OF A WARM FRONT.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF CONVECTION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE BRIEF IFR IN AN AREA OF TSRA.
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL OR WIND GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS IN ISOLATED TSTMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
THE WEEKEND...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN
WITH VARIABILITY BETWEEN VFR CONDITIONS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
SHRA/TSRA/FOG. IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
MONDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE TODAY. A FRONT IS STALLED ACROSS THE EASTERN
WATERS THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
LATER TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH POTENTIAL
FOR 25 KT GUSTS. THIS WIND WILL CAUSE BUILDING SEAS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH 5-8 FOOT SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN EXPOSED WATERS AND
POSSIBLY THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS.
EXPECT LOW VSBYS IN FOG AND LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
TONIGHT-FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN
WEST OF THE WATERS...SO EXPECTING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
REMAIN GUSTY. LOW PROBABILITY FOR GALE-FORCE GUSTS. SEAS WELL
ABOVE 5 FT...MAINLY ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
THE WEEKEND...COLD FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE WATERS AS SURFACE
LOW STAYS OVER NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN ABOVE SCA FOR MOST
OF THE WEEKEND. GUSTY NW BRING GUSTS CLOSE TO GALE FORCE SAT INTO
SAT NIGHT WITH STRONG SCA NEEDED FOR SUNDAY.
MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH SURFACE LOW WOBBLING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND
INTO SUNDAY...EXPECT GUSTY NORTHERLY TO NORTHWEST WINDS ESPECIALLY
DURING THE DAYTIMES HOURS. AT BOSTON...A HIGH TIDE OF 11.9FT WILL
OCCUR ON FRIDAY NIGHT AT 11:21 PM AND 12.2FT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
AT 12:12 AM. EXPECT A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS DURING THE FRIDAY HIGH
TIDE SO THIS IS LESS THAN A CONCERN. LOOKING AT THE SUNDAY MORNING
HIGH TIDE...NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY HELP INCREASE THE
SURGE ESPECIALLY FOR CAPE COD BAY. RIGHT NOW ONLY EXPECT MINOR
SPLASHOVER ACROSS NORTH FACING BEACHES. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AND UPDATE WITH THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ232>234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR ANZ230-231-236-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-
254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DUNTEN
000
FXUS61 KBOX 230635
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
235 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATER TODAY. EXPECT WARM...HUMID AND
SHOWERY WEATHER TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. SCATTERED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BE
SLOW TO CLEAR...SO SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY. COOLER AND
LESS HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD MOVE IN FOR THE HOLIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...STILL RATHER TRANQUIL ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN
COMPARISON. LOTS OF STRATUS WITH AREAS OF POOR VISIBILITY IN FOG
AND DRIZZLE TO CONTEND WITH. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL LOOKS TO BE
STALLED ALONG I-90 IN MA. 23/00Z GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF THIS FRONT...AND THINK THE GUIDANCE IS TOO QUICK TO
PUSH THIS FRONT NORTH. ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT BASED ON
OBSERVED TRENDS FOR THIS MORNING. CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THIS
FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH QUICKLY THIS MORNING AFTER SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE...EXPECTING A LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY TODAY. A BLEND OF THE
23/00Z GFS AND NAM LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SOLUTION FOR TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE. THIS SHOULD LEAVE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE WARM SECTOR
OF THIS LOW FOR MOST OF TODAY. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LIMITED BY
THE COPIOUS CLOUDS TO START THE DAY...WITH SOME BREAKS POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. MODEST LOW-LEVEL WINDS COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
ORGANIZATION WHERE SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MUCH
LIKE THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. AREAS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE MORE AT RISK FOR ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS MOS PRODUCTS. DID ADJUST
TEMPERATURE TRENDS IN THE NEAR-TERM TO GO ALONG WITH SLOWER TIMING
OF WARM FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT SHOULD PLOD ITS WAY EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE A NEAR
CERTAINTY. A PLUME OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.50-1.75
INCHES AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD ALSO MEAN LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AS WELL. ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO KEEP A MENTION OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.
USED A BLEND OF THE SLOWER 23/00Z NAM AND THE SLIGHTLY FASTER 23/00Z
GFS FOR THE TIMING OF THIS COLD FRONT. THIS WAS ALSO SUPPORTED
FAIRLY WELL BY THE 22/21Z SREF.
TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS MOS PRODUCTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
* UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES SUNDAY...THEN SLOWLY IMPROVING
MONDAY
* DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
NOTING A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS THE LOWER 48 AS SEEN ON THE
LAST FEW OP RUNS OF THE GFS...ECMWF AND...TO A LESSER DEGREE...THE
UKMET. MODELS SIGNALING DIGGING UPPER TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW PRES
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN U.S. WHICH BUILDS A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS STATES...THEN IN TURN DIGS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. LOOKS LIKE H5 CUTOFF LOW
FORMS BY SATURDAY ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST...SLOWING THE
PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INTO THE WEEKEND
AT LEAST. SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH THE EXIT OF THE SYSTEM...MAINLY
DUE TO HOW MUCH THE UPPER SYSTEM DIGS AS WELL AS POSSIBLE NEGATIVE
TILTING OF THE TROUGH.
AT THIS POINT...LEANED TOWARD THE WPC GUIDANCE SOLUTION WHICH USED
MAINLY MODEL ENSEMBLES...THEN BLENDED IN THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF
WHICH WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN KEEPING INCLEMENT CONDITIONS GOING
THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. DUE TO
TIMING OF THE EXIT OF THE UPPER SYSTEM...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR
TRANSITION TIME /FOR NOW...DURING SUNDAY/. CONDITIONS LOOK TO
IMPROVE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA FOR MON THROUGH
NEXT WED.
DETAILS...
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS AND EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING H5 CUTOFF LOW OVER THE MID
ATLC...THIS WILL SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
PW VALUES WILL STILL BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES...SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS
STILL POSSIBLE AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS AND EVEN SMALL HAIL. CAN NOT
RULE OUT SOME THUNDER EVEN DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. COOLER AIR
STARTS TO WORK INTO WESTERN AREAS AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES E TOWARD
SE MA AND THE CAPE SAT.
DEPENDING UPON WHETHER CLOUDS BREAK ACROSS W MA/SW NH...TEMPS MAY
FALL BACK TO THE UPPER 30S...OTHERWISE LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL FALL TO
THE 40S.
SUNDAY...FOR NOW...THIS APPEARS TO BE THE TRANSITION DAY AS LOW
PRES SLOWLY MOVES NE TO THE MAINE COAST. WILL STILL SEE SCT
SHOWERS ACROSS S NH/N MA EARLY...THEN SHOULD EXIT. HOWEVER...
RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE AS THIS DEPENDS UPON MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER
TROUGH OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND ITS CUTOFF SYSTEM.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPECT HIGH PRES TO BUILD OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. TEMPS WILL BE COOL ON
THE HOLIDAY...THEN WILL REBOUND TO SEASONAL LEVELS AS THE HIGH
WORKS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF CEILINGS AND CONVECTION.
THROUGH 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT CIGS TO BE MAINLY IFR-
LIFR...THOUGH CIGS MAY RISE TO MVFR AT TIMES ACROSS THE CT VALLEY.
VSBYS ALONG THE COAST WILL ALSO REMAIN AT IFR-LIFR. MAY ALSO SEE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO WESTERN AREAS LATE.
TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER. FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY LIFT THIS MORNING. THE TAFS MAY BE TOO
FAST IN LIFTING CIGS/VSBYS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REGENERATE DURING THE DAY
WITH MORE STRONG STORMS IN THE CT VALLEY AND CENTRAL HILLS.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VERY UNSETTLED
PATTERN WITH VARIABILITY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN
SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS AND FOG. TIMING OF CONDITIONS AT SPECIFIC
TERMINALS VERY DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AT THIS TIME.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS AND CEILINGS...
MAINLY DUE TO TIMING ISSUES OF A WARM FRONT.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF CONVECTION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE BRIEF IFR IN AN AREA OF TSRA.
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL OR WIND GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS IN ISOLATED TSTMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MAINLY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH POCKETS OF
IFR CONDITIONS. ISOLD-SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
POCKETS OF IFR VSBYS IN FOG ALONG THE COAST EARLY.
SUNDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
THROUGH MIDDAY ACROSS S NH/N MA...OTHERWISE SHOULD SEE MAINLY VFR.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF EXIT OF PRECIP.
MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE TODAY. A FRONT IS STALLED ACROSS THE EASTERN
WATERS THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
LATER TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH POTENTIAL
FOR 25 KT GUSTS. THIS WIND WILL CAUSE BUILDING SEAS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH 5-8 FOOT SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN EXPOSED WATERS AND
POSSIBLY THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS.
EXPECT LOW VSBYS IN FOG AND LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
TONIGHT-FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN
WEST OF THE WATERS...SO EXPECTING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
REMAIN GUSTY. LOW PROBABILITY FOR GALE-FORCE GUSTS. SEAS WELL
ABOVE 5 FT...MAINLY ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING OF FRONT. FRONT WILL BE
SLOW TO CLEAR THE EASTERN WATERS...BUT SHOULD DURING THE DAY. N
WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT MAINLY ON THE EASTERN WATERS. SEAS REMAIN
AOA 5 FT OVER THE OPEN WATERS.
SUNDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT W-NW WIND GUSTS UP TO
25 KT AND SEAS AOA 5 FT.
MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR ANZ232>234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR ANZ230-231-236-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-
254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT
000
FXUS61 KBOX 230303
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1103 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND NORTHEAST MASS WILL MOVE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. EXPECT WARM...HUMID AND SHOWERY
WEATHER TO CONTINUE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. SCATTERED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SLOW TO CLEAR...SO SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY...THEN COOLER
AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD MOVE IN FOR THE HOLIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
1045 PM UPDATE...RATHER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT. STRATUS WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH
OF EASTERN MA AND RI. EXPECTING THESE CONDITIONS TO BE THE
PREDOMINANT CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
STILL WATCHING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NY STATE AS THEY APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AT THIS
TIME...THINKING THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE UNFAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STILL NEAR MOIST
ADIABATIC. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONGER
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT.
WARM FRONT APPEARS TO STILL BE STALLED ALONG I-90 OR SO. STILL
THINKING THIS FRONT MAY PUSH FARTHER NORTH TONIGHT AS SYNOPTIC
WINDS INCREASE. IT WOULD NOT BE OVERLY SURPRISING IF THE FRONT
STAYED PUT...THEN JUMPED NORTH AFTER SUNRISE.
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO BRING THEM IN LINE WITH
OBSERVED TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF US OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING UPPER LEVEL
WINDS TO SOUTHWEST. THIS SHOULD MOTIVATE THE SURFACE FRONT TO
MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THE EASTERLY MARINE SURFACE FLOW OVER
THE MERRIMACK VALLEY AND METRO BOSTON WOULD THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY
AND BRING IN WARMER MORE HUMID SURFACE AIR.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS REMAIN UNSTABLE OVERNIGHT. OVERALL POPS
WILL DIMINISH...BUT WITH A LINGERING CHANCE OF THUNDER. THE
GREATEST RISK WILL BE ACROSS THE CT VALLEY AND CENTRAL HILLS WITH
LESS OF A RISK ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND UP THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY. MEANWHILE THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND TURNS THE UPPER FLOW OVER US PAST SOUTHWEST
AND TOWARD SOUTH. THIS WILL SLOW DOWN THE PROGRESS OF THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT AND KEEP NEW ENGLAND IN THE WARM HUMID UNSETTLED
AIRMASS. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS REMAIN UNSTABLE WITH PREFERENCE FOR
THE CENTRAL HILLS/CT VALLEY/BERKSHIRE EAST SLOPE REGIONS. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER. ALSO...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75
INCHES WHICH INCREASES THE LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
* UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES SUNDAY...THEN SLOWLY IMPROVING
MONDAY
* DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
NOTING A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS THE LOWER 48 AS SEEN ON THE
LAST FEW OP RUNS OF THE GFS...ECMWF AND...TO A LESSER DEGREE...THE
UKMET. MODELS SIGNALING DIGGING UPPER TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW PRES
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN U.S. WHICH BUILDS A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS STATES...THEN IN TURN DIGS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. LOOKS LIKE H5 CUTOFF LOW
FORMS BY SATURDAY ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST...SLOWING THE
PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INTO THE WEEKEND
AT LEAST. SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH THE EXIT OF THE SYSTEM...MAINLY
DUE TO HOW MUCH THE UPPER SYSTEM DIGS AS WELL AS POSSIBLE NEGATIVE
TILTING OF THE TROUGH.
AT THIS POINT...LEANED TOWARD THE WPC GUIDANCE SOLUTION WHICH USED
MAINLY MODEL ENSEMBLES...THEN BLENDED IN THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF
WHICH WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN KEEPING INCLEMENT CONDITIONS GOING
THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. DUE TO
TIMING OF THE EXIT OF THE UPPER SYSTEM...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR
TRANSITION TIME /FOR NOW...DURING SUNDAY/. CONDITIONS LOOK TO
IMPROVE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA FOR MON THROUGH
NEXT WED.
DETAILS...
THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT SLOWS DOWN ACROSS NY STATE AS H5 LONG
WAVE TROUGH STARTS TO DIVE TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS. HAVE KEPT
THREAT OF SHOWERS/CHANCE TSTMS GOING. WILL ALSO SEE SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AS AXIS OF PW VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES MOVES ACROSS.
WITH S-SW WIND IN PLACE...EXPECT TEMPS TO ONLY FALL BACK TO THE
MID 50S TO AROUND 60.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
AND EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING H5 CUTOFF LOW OVER THE MID ATLC...THIS
WILL SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
WILL SEE SHOWERS AND TSTMS...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON FRIDAY AS BEST
INSTABILITY MOVES THROUGH. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
STRONGER STORMS MAINLY E OF A LINE FROM KMHT-KORH-KIJD WHERE SOME
PEEKS OF SUN MAY BREAK OUT. PW VALUES WILL STILL BE AROUND 1.5
INCHES...SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS STILL POSSIBLE AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS
AND EVEN SMALL HAIL. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER EVEN DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. COOLER AIR STARTS TO WORK INTO WESTERN AREAS AS
THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES E TOWARD SE MA AND THE CAPE SAT.
DEPENDING UPON WHETHER CLOUDS BREAK ACROSS W MA/SW NH...TEMPS MAY
FALL BACK TO THE UPPER 30S...OTHERWISE LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL FALL TO
THE 40S.
SUNDAY...FOR NOW...THIS APPEARS TO BE THE TRANSITION DAY AS LOW
PRES SLOWLY MOVES NE TO THE MAINE COAST. WILL STILL SEE SCT
SHOWERS ACROSS S NH/N MA EARLY...THEN SHOULD EXIT. HOWEVER...
RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE AS THIS DEPENDS UPON MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER
TROUGH OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND ITS CUTOFF SYSTEM.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPECT HIGH PRES TO BUILD OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. TEMPS WILL BE COOL ON
THE HOLIDAY...THEN WILL REBOUND TO SEASONAL LEVELS AS THE HIGH
WORKS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF CEILINGS AND CONVECTION.
OVERNIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT CIGS TO BE MAINLY IFR-LIFR...THOUGH CIGS MAY RISE TO MVFR
AT TIMES ACROSS THE CT VALLEY. VSBYS ALONG THE COAST WILL ALSO
REMAIN AT IFR-LIFR. MAY ALSO SEE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO WESTERN
AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THURSDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY LIFT
DURING THE MORNING. THE TAFS MAY BE TOO FAST IN LIFTING
CIGS/VSBYS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL REGENERATE DURING THE DAY
WITH MORE STRONG STORMS IN THE CT VALLEY AND CENTRAL HILLS.
KBOS TERMINAL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS AND CEILINGS.
KBDL TERMINAL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF CONVECTION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE BRIEF IFR IN AN AREA OF TSRA.
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL OR WIND GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS IN ISOLATED TSTMS.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VERY UNSETTLED
PATTERN WITH VARIABILITY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN
SHRA/TSRA/FOG.
SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MAINLY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH POCKETS OF
IFR CONDITIONS. ISOLD-SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
POCKETS OF IFR VSBYS IN FOG ALONG THE COAST EARLY.
SUNDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
THROUGH MIDDAY ACROSS S NH/N MA...OTHERWISE SHOULD SEE MAINLY VFR.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF EXIT OF PRECIP.
MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THURSDAY.
A FRONT IS STALLED ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS WITH EAST WINDS TO
THE NORTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE SOUTH. THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT
NORTH TONIGHT WITH ALL WATERS TURNING TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH
POTENTIAL FOR 25 KNOTS ON THURSDAY. THIS WIND WILL CAUSE BUILDING
SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 5-8 FOOT SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN EXPOSED
WATERS AND POSSIBLY THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS.
EXPECT LOW VSBYS IN FOG AND LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT WILL
REMAIN W OF THE WATERS SO EXPECT S WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KT. LOW
PROB OF GALE GUSTS. SEAS WELL ABOVE 5 FT...MAINLY OVER THE OUTER
WATERS. WINDS MAY SHIFT TO NW-N OVER THE WESTERN WATERS FRI NIGHT.
SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING OF FRONT. FRONT WILL BE
SLOW TO CLEAR THE EASTERN WATERS...BUT SHOULD DURING THE DAY. N
WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT MAINLY ON THE EASTERN WATERS. SEAS REMAIN
AOA 5 FT OVER THE OPEN WATERS.
SUNDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT W-NW WIND GUSTS UP TO
25 KT AND SEAS AOA 5 FT.
MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
ANZ232>234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR ANZ230-231-236-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...BELK/WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...BELK/WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT
000
FXUS61 KBOX 222359
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
759 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND NORTHEAST MASS WILL MOVE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. EXPECT WARM...HUMID AND SHOWERY
WEATHER TO CONTINUE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. SCATTERED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SLOW TO CLEAR...SO SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY...THEN COOLER
AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD MOVE IN FOR THE HOLIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
745 PM UPDATE...
A FEW LEFTOVER THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE ACROSS S NH/N MA AT 23Z
HAVE MOVED INTO THE COOLER AIR TO THE E AND WEAKENED. BREAKS IN
THE OVERCAST NOTED ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES INTO EASTERN NY STATE.
LOWER CLOUDS REMAIN ALONG THE COAST WITH E WINDS IN PLACE. ALSO
NOTING COASTAL FOG WITH VSBYS BLO 1SM AT KCQX...KACK AND KBID.
AS NOTED BY PREVIOUS FORECASTER...AIRMASS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS REMAINS UNSTABLE...AND NOTING MORE SHOWERS/TSTMS
ACROSS CENTRAL PA/NY STATE. SOME MAY REACH INTO WESTERN AREAS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR PRECIP LOOKED PRETTY
GOOD SO MADE FEW IF ANY CHANGES.
HAVE UPDATED TEMPS/DEWPTS/WINDS TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF US OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING UPPER LEVEL
WINDS TO SOUTHWEST. THIS SHOULD MOTIVATE THE SURFACE FRONT TO
MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THE EASTERLY MARINE SURFACE FLOW OVER
THE MERRIMACK VALLEY AND METRO BOSTON WOULD THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY
AND BRING IN WARMER MORE HUMID SURFACE AIR.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS REMAIN UNSTABLE OVERNIGHT. OVERALL POPS
WILL DIMINISH...BUT WITH A LINGERING CHANCE OF THUNDER. THE
GREATEST RISK WILL BE ACROSS THE CT VALLEY AND CENTRAL HILLS WITH
LESS OF A RISK ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND UP THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY. MEANWHILE THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND TURNS THE UPPER FLOW OVER US PAST SOUTHWEST
AND TOWARD SOUTH. THIS WILL SLOW DOWN THE PROGRESS OF THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT AND KEEP NEW ENGLAND IN THE WARM HUMID UNSETTLED
AIRMASS. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS REMAIN UNSTABLE WITH PREFERENCE FOR
THE CENTRAL HILLS/CT VALLEY/BERKSHIRE EAST SLOPE REGIONS. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER. ALSO...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75
INCHES WHICH INCREASES THE LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
* UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES SUNDAY...THEN SLOWLY IMPROVING
MONDAY
* DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
NOTING A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS THE LOWER 48 AS SEEN ON THE
LAST FEW OP RUNS OF THE GFS...ECMWF AND...TO A LESSER DEGREE...THE
UKMET. MODELS SIGNALING DIGGING UPPER TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW PRES
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN U.S. WHICH BUILDS A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS STATES...THEN IN TURN DIGS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. LOOKS LIKE H5 CUTOFF LOW
FORMS BY SATURDAY ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST...SLOWING THE
PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INTO THE WEEKEND
AT LEAST. SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH THE EXIT OF THE SYSTEM...MAINLY
DUE TO HOW MUCH THE UPPER SYSTEM DIGS AS WELL AS POSSIBLE NEGATIVE
TILTING OF THE TROUGH.
AT THIS POINT...LEANED TOWARD THE WPC GUIDANCE SOLUTION WHICH USED
MAINLY MODEL ENSEMBLES...THEN BLENDED IN THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF
WHICH WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN KEEPING INCLEMENT CONDITIONS GOING
THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. DUE TO
TIMING OF THE EXIT OF THE UPPER SYSTEM...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR
TRANSITION TIME /FOR NOW...DURING SUNDAY/. CONDITIONS LOOK TO
IMPROVE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA FOR MON THROUGH
NEXT WED.
DETAILS...
THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT SLOWS DOWN ACROSS NY STATE AS H5 LONG
WAVE TROUGH STARTS TO DIVE TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS. HAVE KEPT
THREAT OF SHOWERS/CHANCE TSTMS GOING. WILL ALSO SEE SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AS AXIS OF PW VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES MOVES ACROSS.
WITH S-SW WIND IN PLACE...EXPECT TEMPS TO ONLY FALL BACK TO THE
MID 50S TO AROUND 60.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
AND EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING H5 CUTOFF LOW OVER THE MID ATLC...THIS
WILL SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
WILL SEE SHOWERS AND TSTMS...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON FRIDAY AS BEST
INSTABILITY MOVES THROUGH. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
STRONGER STORMS MAINLY E OF A LINE FROM KMHT-KORH-KIJD WHERE SOME
PEEKS OF SUN MAY BREAK OUT. PW VALUES WILL STILL BE AROUND 1.5
INCHES...SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS STILL POSSIBLE AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS
AND EVEN SMALL HAIL. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER EVEN DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. COOLER AIR STARTS TO WORK INTO WESTERN AREAS AS
THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES E TOWARD SE MA AND THE CAPE SAT.
DEPENDING UPON WHETHER CLOUDS BREAK ACROSS W MA/SW NH...TEMPS MAY
FALL BACK TO THE UPPER 30S...OTHERWISE LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL FALL TO
THE 40S.
SUNDAY...FOR NOW...THIS APPEARS TO BE THE TRANSITION DAY AS LOW
PRES SLOWLY MOVES NE TO THE MAINE COAST. WILL STILL SEE SCT
SHOWERS ACROSS S NH/N MA EARLY...THEN SHOULD EXIT. HOWEVER...
RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE AS THIS DEPENDS UPON MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER
TROUGH OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND ITS CUTOFF SYSTEM.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPECT HIGH PRES TO BUILD OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. TEMPS WILL BE COOL ON
THE HOLIDAY...THEN WILL REBOUND TO SEASONAL LEVELS AS THE HIGH
WORKS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF CEILINGS AND CONVECTION.
OVERNIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT CIGS TO BE MAINLY IFR-LIFR...THOUGH CIGS MAY RISE TO MVFR
AT TIMES ACROSS THE CT VALLEY. VSBYS ALONG THE COAST WILL ALSO
REMAIN AT IFR-LIFR...BUT MAINLY VFR THIS EVENING BUT WILL LIKELY
LOWER TO IFR IN DEVELOPING FOG. MAY ALSO SEE SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
INTO WESTERN AREAS AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THURSDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY LIFT
DURING THE MORNING. THE TAFS MAY BE TOO FAST IN LIFTING
CIGS/VSBYS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL REGENERATE DURING THE DAY
WITH MORE STRONG STORMS IN THE CT VALLEY AND CENTRAL HILLS.
KBOS TERMINAL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS AND CEILINGS.
KBDL TERMINAL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF CONVECTION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE BRIEF IFR IN AN AREA OF TSRA.
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL OR WIND GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS IN ISOLATED TSTMS.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VERY UNSETTLED
PATTERN WITH VARIABILITY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN
SHRA/TSRA/FOG.
SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MAINLY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH POCKETS OF
IFR CONDITIONS. ISOLD-SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
POCKETS OF IFR VSBYS IN FOG ALONG THE COAST EARLY.
SUNDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
THROUGH MIDDAY ACROSS S NH/N MA...OTHERWISE SHOULD SEE MAINLY VFR.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF EXIT OF PRECIP.
MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THURSDAY.
A FRONT IS STALLED ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS WITH EAST WINDS TO
THE NORTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE SOUTH. THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT
NORTH TONIGHT WITH ALL WATERS TURNING TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH
POTENTIAL FOR 25 KNOTS ON THURSDAY. THIS WIND WILL CAUSE BUILDING
SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 5-8 FOOT SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN EXPOSED
WATERS AND POSSIBLY THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS.
EXPECT LOW VSBYS IN FOG AND LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT WILL
REMAIN W OF THE WATERS SO EXPECT S WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KT. LOW
PROB OF GALE GUSTS. SEAS WELL ABOVE 5 FT...MAINLY OVER THE OUTER
WATERS. WINDS MAY SHIFT TO NW-N OVER THE WESTERN WATERS FRI NIGHT.
SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING OF FRONT. FRONT WILL BE
SLOW TO CLEAR THE EASTERN WATERS...BUT SHOULD DURING THE DAY. N
WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT MAINLY ON THE EASTERN WATERS. SEAS REMAIN
AOA 5 FT OVER THE OPEN WATERS.
SUNDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT W-NW WIND GUSTS UP TO
25 KT AND SEAS AOA 5 FT.
MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
ANZ232>234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR ANZ230-231-236-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR ANZ250.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB/EVT
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT
000
FXUS61 KBOX 222055
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
455 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND NORTHEAST MASS WILL MOVE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. EXPECT WARM...HUMID AND SHOWERY
WEATHER TO CONTINUE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. SCATTERED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SLOW TO CLEAR...SO SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY...THEN COOLER
AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD MOVE IN FOR THE HOLIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH 00Z...
PARAMETERS SUCH AS THE C-B SIGNIFICANT SEVERE ARE FOCUSED ON
EASTERN NY AND EXTEND INTO FRANKLIN AND CHESHIRE COUNTIES. THIS
AREA EXPANDS INTO HAMPSHIRE AND HAMPDEN COUNTIES MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING. THE MORE GENERAL PARAMETERS SUCH AS
LIFTED INDEX SHOW THE LOWEST VALUES IN THIS AREA AND ARE UNSTABLE
TO MANCHESTER AND METROWEST BOSTON/NORTHERN RI/NORTHERN CT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE NEAR 1.5 INCHES...SUFFICIENT FOR
SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS. CONTINUE TO EXPECT SCATTERED TSTMS IN THIS
LATTER AREA WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE BEST SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL BE IN WESTERN MASS AND SOUTHWEST NH. SVR TSTM WATCH
210 IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
TONIGHT...
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF US...TURNING WINDS INTO A SOUTHWEST
FLOW. THIS SHOULD MOTIVATE THE SURFACE FRONT TO MOVE NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT TONIGHT. THE EASTERLY MARINE SURFACE FLOW OVER THE
MERRIMACK VALLEY AND METRO BOSTON WOULD THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY AND
BRING IN WARMER MORE HUMID SURFACE AIR.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS REMAIN UNSTABLE OVERNIGHT...WHILE SUNSET
SHOULD WORK TOWARD STABILIZING THE AIRMASS A TAD. OVERALL POPS
WILL DIMINISH...BUT WITH A LINGERING CHANCE OF THUNDER. THE
GREATEST RISK WILL BE ACROSS THE CT VALLEY AND CENTRAL HILLS WITH
LESS OF A RISK ALONG THE COAST. TEMPS ARE A BLEND OF MOS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND UP THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY. MEANWHILE THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND TURNS THE UPPER FLOW OVER US PAST SOUTHWEST
AND TOWARD SOUTH. THIS WILL SLOW DOWN THE PROGRESS OF THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT AND KEEP NEW ENGLAND IN THE WARM HUMID UNSETTLED
AIRMASS. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS REMAIN UNSTABLE WITH PREFERENCE FOR
THE CENTRAL HILLS/CT VALLEY/BERKSHIRE EAST SLOPE REGIONS. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER. ALSO...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75
INCHES WHICH INCREASES THE LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
* UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES SUNDAY...THEN SLOWLY IMPROVING
MONDAY
* DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
NOTING A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS THE LOWER 48 AS SEEN ON THE
LAST FEW OP RUNS OF THE GFS...ECMWF AND...TO A LESSER DEGREE...THE
UKMET. MODELS SIGNALING DIGGING UPPER TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW PRES
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN U.S. WHICH BUILDS A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS STATES...THEN IN TURN DIGS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. LOOKS LIKE H5 CUTOFF LOW
FORMS BY SATURDAY ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST...SLOWING THE
PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INTO THE WEEKEND
AT LEAST. SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH THE EXIT OF THE SYSTEM...MAINLY
DUE TO HOW MUCH THE UPPER SYSTEM DIGS AS WELL AS POSSIBLE NEGATIVE
TILTING OF THE TROUGH.
AT THIS POINT...LEANED TOWARD THE WPC GUIDANCE SOLUTION WHICH USED
MAINLY MODEL ENSEMBLES...THEN BLENDED IN THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF
WHICH WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN KEEPING INCLEMENT CONDITIONS GOING
THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. DUE TO
TIMING OF THE EXIT OF THE UPPER SYSTEM...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR
TRANSITION TIME /FOR NOW...DURING SUNDAY/. CONDITIONS LOOK TO
IMPROVE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA FOR MON THROUGH
NEXT WED.
DETAILS...
THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT SLOWS DOWN ACROSS NY STATE AS H5 LONG
WAVE TROUGH STARTS TO DIVE TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS. HAVE KEPT
THREAT OF SHOWERS/CHANCE TSTMS GOING. WILL ALSO SEE SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AS AXIS OF PW VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES MOVES ACROSS.
WITH S-SW WIND IN PLACE...EXPECT TEMPS TO ONLY FALL BACK TO THE
MID 50S TO AROUND 60.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
AND EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING H5 CUTOFF LOW OVER THE MID ATLC...THIS
WILL SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
WILL SEE SHOWERS AND TSTMS...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON FRIDAY AS BEST
INSTABILITY MOVES THROUGH. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
STRONGER STORMS MAINLY E OF A LINE FROM KMHT-KORH-KIJD WHERE SOME
PEEKS OF SUN MAY BREAK OUT. PW VALUES WILL STILL BE AROUND 1.5
INCHES...SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS STILL POSSIBLE AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS
AND EVEN SMALL HAIL. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER EVEN DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. COOLER AIR STARTS TO WORK INTO WESTERN AREAS AS
THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES E TOWARD SE MA AND THE CAPE SAT.
DEPENDING UPON WHETHER CLOUDS BREAK ACROSS W MA/SW NH...TEMPS MAY
FALL BACK TO THE UPPER 30S...OTHERWISE LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL FALL TO
THE 40S.
SUNDAY...FOR NOW...THIS APPEARS TO BE THE TRANSITION DAY AS LOW
PRES SLOWLY MOVES NE TO THE MAINE COAST. WILL STILL SEE SCT
SHOWERS ACROSS S NH/N MA EARLY...THEN SHOULD EXIT. HOWEVER...
RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE AS THIS DEPENDS UPON MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER
TROUGH OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND ITS CUTOFF SYSTEM.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPECT HIGH PRES TO BUILD OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. TEMPS WILL BE COOL ON
THE HOLIDAY...THEN WILL REBOUND TO SEASONAL LEVELS AS THE HIGH
WORKS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF CEILINGS AND CONVECTION.
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
CIGS BELOW 1000 FEET LINGER ALONG THE EAST COAST...LIFTING TO 1500
TO 2500 FEET IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND VFR IN THE CT VALLEY. EXPECT
CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST WILL BE TOUGH TO BREAK ESPECIALLY WHERE
WINDS LINGER OUT OF THE EAST. FOG LINGERS AT ACK AND IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE AN AREA OF TSTMS MOVES IN FROM EASTERN NY WITH BRIEF
CIGS 500-1000 FEET AND VSBYS 1-3 MILES WHERE THEY MOVE OVERHEAD.
BRIEF STRONG WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS IN THE CT
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
TONIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHOWERS/TSTMS DIMINISH IN INTENSITY BUT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION
LINGERS OVERNIGHT. THE WARM HUMID AIRMASS AND WET GROUND WILL
GENERATE MORE FOG WITH VSBYS 1-3 MILES IN GENERAL AND BELOW 1 MILE
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THURSDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY LIFT
DURING THE MORNING. THE TAFS MAY BE TOO FAST IN LIFTING
CIGS/VSBYS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL REGENERATE DURING THE DAY
WITH MORE STRONG STORMS IN THE CT VALLEY AND CENTRAL HILLS.
KBOS TERMINAL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS AND CEILINGS.
KBDL TERMINAL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF CONVECTION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE BRIEF IFR IN AN AREA OF TSRA.
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL OR WIND GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS IN ISOLATED TSTMS.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VERY UNSETTLED
PATTERN WITH VARIABILITY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN
SHRA/TSRA/FOG.
SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MAINLY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH POCKETS OF
IFR CONDITIONS. ISOLD-SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
POCKETS OF IFR VSBYS IN FOG ALONG THE COAST EARLY.
SUNDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
THROUGH MIDDAY ACROSS S NH/N MA...OTHERWISE SHOULD SEE MAINLY VFR.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF EXIT OF PRECIP.
MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THURSDAY.
A FRONT IS STALLED ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS WITH EAST WINDS TO
THE NORTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE SOUTH. THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT
NORTH TONIGHT WITH ALL WATERS TURNING TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH
POTENTIAL FOR 25 KNOTS ON THURSDAY. THIS WIND WILL CAUSE BUILDING
SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 5-8 FOOT SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN EXPOSED
WATERS AND POSSIBLY THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS.
EXPECT LOW VSBYS IN FOG AND LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT WILL
REMAIN W OF THE WATERS SO EXPECT S WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KT. LOW
PROB OF GALE GUSTS. SEAS WELL ABOVE 5 FT...MAINLY OVER THE OUTER
WATERS. WINDS MAY SHIFT TO NW-N OVER THE WESTERN WATERS FRI NIGHT.
SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING OF FRONT. FRONT WILL BE
SLOW TO CLEAR THE EASTERN WATERS...BUT SHOULD DURING THE DAY. N
WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT MAINLY ON THE EASTERN WATERS. SEAS REMAIN
AOA 5 FT OVER THE OPEN WATERS.
SUNDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT W-NW WIND GUSTS UP TO
25 KT AND SEAS AOA 5 FT.
MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
ANZ232>234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR ANZ230-231-236-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR ANZ250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT
000
FXUS61 KBOX 221935
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
335 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND NORTHEAST MASS WILL MOVE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. WARM HUMID SHOWERY WEATHER
CONTINUES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH 00Z...
PARAMETERS SUCH AS THE C-B SIGNIFICANT SEVERE ARE FOCUSSED ON
EASTERN NY AND EXTEND INTO FRANKLIN AND CHESHIRE COUNTIES. THIS
AREA EXPANDS INTO HAMPSHIRE AND HAMPDEN COUNTIES MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING. THE MORE GENERAL PARAMETERS SUCH AS
LIFTED INDEX SHOW THE LOWEST VALUES IN THIS AREA AND ARE UNSTABLE
TO MANCHESTER AND METROWEST BOSTON/NORTHERN RI/NORTHERN CT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE NEAR 1.5 INCHES...SUFFICIENT FOR
SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS. CONTINUE TO EXPECT SCATTERED TSTMS IN THIS
LATTER AREA WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE BEST SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL BE IN WESTERN MASS AND SOUTHWEST NH. SVR TSTM
WATCH 210 IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
TONIGHT...
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF US...TURNING WINDS INTO A SOUTHWEST
FLOW. THIS SHOULD MOTIVATE THE SURFACE FRONT TO MOVE NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT TONIGHT. THE EASTERLY MARINE SURFACE FLOW OVER THE
MERRIMACK VALLEY AND METRO BOSTON WOULD THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY AND
BRING IN WARMER MORE HUMID SURFACE AIR.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS REMAIN UNSTABLE OVERNIGHT...WHILE SUNSET
SHOULD WORK TOWARD STABILIZING THE AIRMASS A TAD. OVERALL POPS
WILL DIMINISH...BUT WITH A LINGERING CHANCE OF THUNDER. THE
GREATEST RISK WILL BE ACROSS THE CT VALLEY AND CENTRAL HILLS WITH
LESS OF A RISK ALONG THE COAST. TEMPS ARE A BLEND OF MOS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND UP THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY. MEANWHILE THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND TURNS THE UPPER FLOW OVER US PAST SOUTHWEST
AND TOWARD SOUTH. THIS WILL SLOW DOWN THE PROGRESS OF THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT AND KEEP NEW ENGLAND IN THE WARM HUMID UNSETTLED
AIRMASS. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS REMAIN UNSTABLE WITH PREFERENCE FOR
THE CENTRAL HILLS/CT VALLEY/BERKSHIRE EAST SLOPE REGIONS. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER. ALSO...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75
INCHES WHICH INCREASES THE LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
* COOLER AND LESS HUMID FOR THE WEEKEND
CONFIDENCE LEVEL/MODEL GUIDANCE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL
FORECAST. 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE ELONGATED TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THERE IS STILL SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES ON WHEN THE SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST. REGARDLESS APPEARS THAT ELONGATED TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
NEW ENGLAND EVENTUALLY BECOMING A CUTOFF LOW BY THE WEEKEND. THIS
LOW WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES BY THE BEGINNING OF
THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AND COOLER TEMPS WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST AFTER TUES.
DETAILS...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION EVENTUALLY PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE TIMING OF THE FRONT DOWN...SO
BELIEVE THAT IT MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME ON FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF THE
MODEL DIFFERENCE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
REGARDLESS...BELIEVE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH WITH TEMPS NEAR AVG. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS REGIONS SOUTH OF THE I-84
CORRIDOR. MODELS INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY WITH ABOUT 25KTS OF
SHEAR. PWAT VALUES OF OVER 1.5 INCHES LEADS FORECASTER TO BELIEVE
THAT HEAVY DOWNPOURS IS THE MAIN THREAT...BUT WITH FALLING HEIGHTS
AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. ANY CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP WILL
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS DIURNAL HEATING IS LOST.
WEEKEND...TRICKY FORECAST IS PLAYING OUT FOR THE WEEKEND. MODELS
HAVE INDICATED THAT THE ELONGATED TROUGH WILL CUT OFF OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC AND SLOWLY ROTATE OVER NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH COOLER AIR...WELL BELOW AVG AND EVEN HAS
SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING OF PRECIP. BELIEVE THAT PRECIP MAY LINGER
INTO SAT...BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON
SUNDAY. FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE SLOW DOWN TREND IN THE
FORECAST. EXPECT HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH
LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. IF SKIES CLEAR OUT AS
THIS COLD POOL SITS OVER US...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AS THE ENTIRE REGION IS
OFFICIALLY IN THE GROWING SEASON.
MONDAY AND BEYOND...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL HELP TEMPS REACH SEASONAL
CONDITIONS. APPEARS THAT THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE KEEPING THE
FORECAST DRY...HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO...ESP
IF SEA BREEZES DEVELOPS.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF CEILINGS AND CONVECTION.
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
CIGS BELOW 1000 FEET LINGER ALONG THE EAST COAST...LIFTING TO 1500
TO 2500 FEET IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND VFR IN THE CT VALLEY. EXPECT
CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST WILL BE TOUGH TO BREAK ESPECIALLY WHERE
WINDS LINGER OUT OF THE EAST. FOG LINGERS AT ACK AND IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE AN AREA OF TSTMS MOVES IN FROM EASTERN NY WITH BRIEF
CIGS 500-1000 FEET AND VSBYS 1-3 MILES WHERE THEY MOVE OVERHEAD.
BRIEF STRONG WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS IN THE CT
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
TONIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHOWERS/TSTMS DIMINISH IN INTENSITY BUT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION
LINGERS OVERNIGHT. THE WARM HUMID AIRMASS AND WET GROUND WILL
GENERATE MORE FOG WITH VSBYS 1-3 MILES IN GENERAL AND BELOW 1 MILE
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THURSDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY LIFT
DURING THE MORNING. THE TAFS MAY BE TOO FAST IN LIFTING
CIGS/VSBYS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL REGENERATE DURING THE DAY
WITH MORE STRONG STORMS IN THE CT VALLEY AND CENTRAL HILLS.
KBOS TERMINAL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS AND CEILINGS.
KBDL TERMINAL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF CONVECTION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE BRIEF IFR IN AN AREA OF TSRA.
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL OR WIND GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS IN ISOLATED TSTMS.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
ON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENTS. VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH
VARIABILITY BETWEEN VFR CONDITIONS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
SHRA/TSRA/FOG. IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THURSDAY.
A FRONT IS STALLED ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS WITH EAST WINDS TO
THE NORTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE SOUTH. THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT
NORTH TONIGHT WITH ALL WATERS TURNING TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH
POTENTIAL FOR 25 KNOTS ON THURSDAY. THIS WIND WILL CAUSE BUILDING
SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 5-8 FOOT SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN EXPOSED
WATERS AND POSSIBLY THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS.
EXPECT LOW VSBYS IN FOG AND LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO
CLEAR THE WATERS...SO EXPECT SW WINDS IN PLACE FOR A PORTION OF
THE DAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO W-NW ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.
THE WEEKEND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA FOR
MOST OF THE WEEKEND ESP FOR THE OUTER WATERS. GUSTY NW BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL BRING GUSTS CLOSE TO GALE FORCE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.
EXPECT BOTH SEAS AND WIND TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON SUNDAY.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
ANZ232>234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR ANZ230-231-236-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR ANZ235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR ANZ250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
000
FXUS61 KBOX 221920
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
320 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND NORTHEAST MASS WILL MOVE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. WARM HUMID SHOWERY WEATHER
CONTINUES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THROUGH 00Z...
PARAMETERS SUCH AS THE C-B SIGNIFICANT SEVERE ARE FOCUSSED ON
EASTERN NY AND EXTEND INTO FRANKLIN AND CHESHIRE COUNTIES. THIS
AREA EXPANDS INTO HAMPSHIRE AND HAMPDEN COUNTIES MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING. THE MORE GENERAL PARAMETERS SUCH AS
LIFTED INDEX SHOW THE LOWEST VALUES IN THIS AREA AND ARE UNSTABLE
TO MANCHESTER AND METROWEST BOSTON/NORTHERN RI/NORTHERN CT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE NEAR 1.5 INCHES...SUFFICIENT FOR
SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS. CONTINUE TO EXPECT SCATTERED TSTMS IN THIS
LATTER AREA WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE BEST SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL BE IN WESTERN MASS AND SOUTHWEST NH. SVR TSTM
WATCH 210 IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
TONIGHT...
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF US...TURNING WINDS INTO A SOUTHWEST
FLOW. THIS SHOULD MOTIVATE THE SURFACE FRONT TO MOVE NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT TONIGHT. THE EASTERLY MARINE SURFACE FLOW OVER THE
MERRIMACK VALLEY AND METRO BOSTON WOULD THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY AND
BRING IN WARMER MORE HUMID SURFACE AIR.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS REMAIN UNSTABLE OVERNIGHT...WHILE SUNSET
SHOULD WORK TOWARD STABILIZING THE AIRMASS A TAD. OVERALL POPS
WILL DIMINISH...BUT WITH A LINGERING CHANCE OF THUNDER. THE
GREATEST RISK WILL BE ACROSS THE CT VALLEY AND CENTRAL HILLS WITH
LESS OF A RISK ALONG THE COAST. TEMPS ARE A BLEND OF MOS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND UP THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY. MEANWHILE THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND TURNS THE UPPER FLOW OVER US PAST SOUTHWEST
AND TOWARD SOUTH. THIS WILL SLOW DOWN THE PROGRESS OF THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT AND KEEP NEW ENGLAND IN THE WARM HUMID UNSETTLED
AIRMASS. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS REMAIN UNSTABLE WITH PREFERENCE FOR
THE CENTRAL HILLS/CT VALLEY/BERKSHIRE EAST SLOPE REGIONS. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER. ALSO...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75
INCHES WHICH INCREASES THE LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
* COOLER AND LESS HUMID FOR THE WEEKEND
CONFIDENCE LEVEL/MODEL GUIDANCE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL
FORECAST. 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE ELONGATED TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THERE IS STILL SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES ON WHEN THE SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST. REGARDLESS APPEARS THAT ELONGATED TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
NEW ENGLAND EVENTUALLY BECOMING A CUTOFF LOW BY THE WEEKEND. THIS
LOW WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES BY THE BEGINNING OF
THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AND COOLER TEMPS WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST AFTER TUES.
DETAILS...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION EVENTUALLY PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE TIMING OF THE FRONT DOWN...SO
BELIEVE THAT IT MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME ON FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF THE
MODEL DIFFERENCE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
REGARDLESS...BELIEVE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH WITH TEMPS NEAR AVG. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS REGIONS SOUTH OF THE I-84
CORRIDOR. MODELS INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY WITH ABOUT 25KTS OF
SHEAR. PWAT VALUES OF OVER 1.5 INCHES LEADS FORECASTER TO BELIEVE
THAT HEAVY DOWNPOURS IS THE MAIN THREAT...BUT WITH FALLING HEIGHTS
AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. ANY CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP WILL
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS DIURNAL HEATING IS LOST.
WEEKEND...TRICKY FORECAST IS PLAYING OUT FOR THE WEEKEND. MODELS
HAVE INDICATED THAT THE ELONGATED TROUGH WILL CUT OFF OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC AND SLOWLY ROTATE OVER NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH COOLER AIR...WELL BELOW AVG AND EVEN HAS
SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING OF PRECIP. BELIEVE THAT PRECIP MAY LINGER
INTO SAT...BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON
SUNDAY. FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE SLOW DOWN TREND IN THE
FORECAST. EXPECT HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH
LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. IF SKIES CLEAR OUT AS
THIS COLD POOL SITS OVER US...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AS THE ENTIRE REGION IS
OFFICIALLY IN THE GROWING SEASON.
MONDAY AND BEYOND...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL HELP TEMPS REACH SEASONAL
CONDITIONS. APPEARS THAT THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE KEEPING THE
FORECAST DRY...HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO...ESP
IF SEA BREEZES DEVELOPS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF CEILINGS AND CONVECTION.
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
CIGS BELOW 1000 FEET LINGER ALONG THE EAST COAST...LIFTING TO 1500
TO 2500 FEET IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND VFR IN THE CT VALLEY. EXPECT
CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST WILL BE TOUGH TO BREAK ESPECIALLY WHERE
WINDS LINGER OUT OF THE EAST. FOG LINGERS AT ACK AND IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE AN AREA OF TSTMS MOVES IN FROM EASTERN NY WITH BRIEF
CIGS 500-1000 FEET AND VSBYS 1-3 MILES WHERE THEY MOVE OVERHEAD.
BRIEF STRONG WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS IN THE CT
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
TONIGHT...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHOWERS/TSTMS DIMINISH IN INTENSITY BUT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION
LINGERS OVERNIGHT. THE WARM HUMID AIRMASS AND WET GROUND WILL
GENERATE MORE FOG WITH VSBYS 1-3 MILES IN GENERAL AND BELOW 1 MILE
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THURSDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY LIFT
DURING THE MORNING. THE TAFS MAY BE TOO FAST IN LIFTING
CIGS/VSBYS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL REGENERATE DURING THE DAY
WITH MORE STRONG STORMS IN THE CT VALLEY AND CENTRAL HILLS.
KBOS TERMINAL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS AND CEILINGS.
KBDL TERMINAL...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF CONVECTION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE BRIEF IFR IN AN AREA OF TSRA.
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL OR WIND GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS IN ISOLATED TSTMS.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
ON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENTS. VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH
VARIABILITY BETWEEN VFR CONDITIONS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
SHRA/TSRA/FOG. IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THURSDAY.
A FRONT IS STALLED ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS WITH EAST WINDS TO
THE NORTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE SOUTH. THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT
NORTH TONIGHT WITH ALL WATERS TURNING TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH
POTENTIAL FOR 25 KNOTS ON THURSDAY. THIS WIND WILL CAUSE BUILDING
SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 5-8 FOOT SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN EXPOSED
WATERS AND POSSIBLY THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS.
EXPECT LOW VSBYS IN FOG AND LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO
CLEAR THE WATERS...SO EXPECT SW WINDS IN PLACE FOR A PORTION OF
THE DAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO W-NW ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.
THE WEEKEND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA FOR
MOST OF THE WEEKEND ESP FOR THE OUTER WATERS. GUSTY NW BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL BRING GUSTS CLOSE TO GALE FORCE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.
EXPECT BOTH SEAS AND WIND TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON SUNDAY.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ255-256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-254.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ237.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
000
FXUS61 KBOX 221448
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1048 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TODAY. WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. COOLER AND
LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PER 10 AM OBSERVATIONS...WOULD PLACE THE STALLED FRONT NEAR THE
MA/NH BORDER AND EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHEAST MASS. UPPER FLOW IS
MOSTLY PARALLEL TO THIS FRONT WHICH WOULD SUGGEST LITTLE CHANGE IN
POSITION THIS AFTERNOON. IT/S POSSIBLE FOR THE FRONT TO DRIFT
MARGINALLY NORTH. WINDS AT JAFFREY ARE LIGHT SOUTHWEST...WHICH
ALSO SUGGESTS SOME DRIFT NORTH. TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS ARE DRIFTING
UP AT HARTFORD-SPRINGFIELD AND AT PROVIDENCE AND EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE.
SIGNS OF BREAKAGE IN THE CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM...SO THAT ALONG WITH
ADVECTION THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME SOLAR HEATING. LIGHT FLOW AT
SURFACE WILL SUPPORT SEABREEZE/ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE COAST WHICH
WOULD KEEP TEMPS LOWER NEAR THE COAST. SO WE HAVE HELD TEMP
FORECASTS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS.
AS FOR CONVECTION...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDER EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH JET DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT VENTING...BUT
FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS IN PLAY. BEST AREAS FOR
DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE ALONG/WEST OF THE I-84/I-495 CORRIDOR. IF THE
FRONT LINGERS NEAR THE MASS BORDER THEN NH WOULD HAVE LESS OF A
CHANCE...BUT IF THE FRONT MOVES NORTH THEN NH WILL BE IN PLAY.
SPC HAS PLACED ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN A SLIGHT RISK
AREA...SO STRONG WINDS/HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.
AS MENTIONED BEFORE...THE BEST ADVICE IS TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE
SKY AND LATER FORECASTS IF YOU WILL BE OUTDOORS THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...MORE OF THE SAME TONIGHT. WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
NORTH AS STRONGER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SYNOPTIC FLOW DEVELOPS.
DECENT INSTABILITY PERSISTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SO THINKING WE WILL
BE SEEING ANOTHER NIGHT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
THE GREATEST RISK OF THESE WILL BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AWAY FROM
THE STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF THE OCEAN.
THURSDAY...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A
LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER VALLEY. THIS LOW HAS A RATHER AMPLIFIED UPPER SYSTEM...SO
ITS COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION.
EXPECTING MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
VERY HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE AS WELL...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AROUND 1.7 INCHES. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH SOME SHOWERS...ALONG WITH SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. MAY NOT
QUITE REACH SEVERE THRESHOLDS AS CLOUDS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT...
THUS TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE LOWER THAN WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
* COOLER AND LESS HUMID FOR THE WEEKEND
CONFIDENCE LEVEL/MODEL GUIDANCE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL
FORECAST. 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE ELONGATED TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THERE IS STILL SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES ON WHEN THE SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST. REGARDLESS APPEARS THAT ELONGATED TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
NEW ENGLAND EVENTUALLY BECOMING A CUTOFF LOW BY THE WEEKEND. THIS
LOW WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES BY THE BEGINNING OF
THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AND COOLER TEMPS WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST AFTER TUES.
DETAILS...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION EVENTUALLY PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE TIMING OF THE FRONT DOWN...SO
BELIEVE THAT IT MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME ON FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF THE
MODEL DIFFERENCE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
REGARDLESS...BELIEVE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH WITH TEMPS NEAR AVG. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS REGIONS SOUTH OF THE I-84
CORRIDOR. MODELS INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY WITH ABOUT 25KTS OF
SHEAR. PWAT VALUES OF OVER 1.5 INCHES LEADS FORECASTER TO BELIEVE
THAT HEAVY DOWNPOURS IS THE MAIN THREAT...BUT WITH FALLING HEIGHTS
AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. ANY CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP WILL
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS DIURNAL HEATING IS LOST.
WEEKEND...TRICKY FORECAST IS PLAYING OUT FOR THE WEEKEND. MODELS
HAVE INDICATED THAT THE ELONGATED TROUGH WILL CUT OFF OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC AND SLOWLY ROTATE OVER NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH COOLER AIR...WELL BELOW AVG AND EVEN HAS
SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING OF PRECIP. BELIEVE THAT PRECIP MAY LINGER
INTO SAT...BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON
SUNDAY. FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE SLOW DOWN TREND IN THE
FORECAST. EXPECT HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH
LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. IF SKIES CLEAR OUT AS
THIS COLD POOL SITS OVER US...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AS THE ENTIRE REGION IS
OFFICIALLY IN THE GROWING SEASON.
MONDAY AND BEYOND...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL HELP TEMPS REACH SEASONAL
CONDITIONS. APPEARS THAT THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE KEEPING THE
FORECAST DRY...HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO...ESP
IF SEA BREEZES DEVELOPS.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
STRATUS AND FOG THROUGH THIS MORNING.
MIDDAY/THIS AFTERNOON...VSBYS IMPROVING AT MOST SPOTS EXCEPT
ACK...BUT IFR CIGS LINGERING LONGER THAN EXPECTED. CLOUDS UPSTREAM
ARE SHOWING BREAKAGE...SO WE SHOULD TREND TO LOSE THE CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HEATING ALLOWING THE CIGS TO LIFT TO VFR. HEATING
WILL GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH BEST CHANCES IN
CT AND NORTH/WEST OF BOSTON. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ALL
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA...SO STRONG WINDS
AND HAIL ARE POSSIBILITIES ESPECIALLY AFTER 2 PM THROUGH EVENING.
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. EXPECT VARIABLE
CONDITIONS DEPENDING UPON SHOWER AND FOG DEVELOPMENT. BETTER SHOT
FOR IFR VSBYS IN FOG ALONG S COAST ON S-SW WINDS AND MILD TEMPS
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
THOUGH BEST SHOT ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...WITH MVFR-IFR
CIGS/VSBYS. MAY SEE LOCAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING AND PLACEMENT.
THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. VARIABLE CONDITIONS BETWEEN VFR
AND MVFR/IFR IN SHRA/TSRA/PATCHY FOG. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION THU NIGHT...SO WILL SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN
AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT THU NIGHT...THEN INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS AFTER
06Z-07Z. MAY SEE SW WIND GUSTING UP TO 20-25 KT DURING THE DAY AS
WELL. WINDS SHIFT TO W-NW ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING OF LOWER CONDITIONS AND CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF...MAINLY DUE TO TIMING
OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. COULD SEE BRIEF IFR IN A BAND OF
TSRA.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
ON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENTS. VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH
VARIABILITY BETWEEN VFR CONDITIONS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
SHRA/TSRA/FOG. IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TONIGHT.
INCREASING SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN SEAS BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR SOME OF THE SOUTHERN WATERS...EXPANDING NORTH OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
EXPECT LOW VSBYS IN HEAVY SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG AT TIMES.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY
NEAR SHORE.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO
CLEAR THE WATERS...SO EXPECT SW WINDS IN PLACE FOR A PORTION OF
THE DAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO W-NW ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.
THE WEEKEND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA FOR
MOST OF THE WEEKEND ESP FOR THE OUTER WATERS. GUSTY NW BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL BRING GUSTS CLOSE TO GALE FORCE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.
EXPECT BOTH SEAS AND WIND TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON SUNDAY.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ255-256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-254.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ237.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/BELK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN
000
FXUS61 KBOX 221129
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
729 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TODAY. WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. COOLER AND
LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
730 AM UPDATE...
CONVECTION IS FINALLY DYING DOWN AS IT ENTERS INTO ALREADY WORKED
OVER AIR. EXPECT PRECIP TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND
DISSIPATE. TEMPS ARE SLOW TO REBOUND THIS MORNING...BUT WITH
WINDS SOUTH OF THE PIKE ALREADY SWITCHING TO THE SW...EXPECT TEMPS
TO JUMP LATER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE BULK OF THE FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK AS STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER IS STILL ANTICIPATED ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CONTINUING TO MONITOR WAVES OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING. LATEST
RUNS OF THE HRRR APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THESE BANDS OF
CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH ITS TIMING WAS SLOW BY A FEW HOURS. LEANED
HEAVILY ON THE 05Z HRRR WITH THE APPROPRIATE TIMING ADJUSTMENT FOR
THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
REASONABLY HOLDING TOGETHER IN A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT.
LATER TODAY...EXPECTING THE STALLED BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT TO MOVE
BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS AS TO
HOW FAST THIS WILL HAPPEN. CURRENTLY THINKING THERE IS NOT ENOUGH
PUSH TO DRIVE IT COMPLETELY THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS
SUCH...MAINTAINED COASTAL SEABREEZE FRONTS ALONG BOTH COASTS.
THIS HAS BIG RAMIFICATIONS FOR TEMPERATURES ALONG THE EAST COAST.
SHOULD THIS FRONT GET ENOUGH PUSH...CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES
ARE LIKELY 5-10 DEGREES TOO LOW ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. AM
MORE CONFIDENT WITH TEMPERATURES FARTHER INLAND. SHOULD THERE BE
MORE SUNSHINE THAT CURRENTLY THINKING...LIKELY TOO LOW FARTHER
INLAND AS WELL.
THINKING THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE TODAY OWING TO
LOTS OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM THE OVERNIGHT SHOWERS...AS WELL AS
NEW CONVECTIVE CLOUDS AS WE HEAD INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATER TODAY. THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER. THE GREATEST
RISK SHOULD BE FARTHER WEST OF OUR REGION WHERE THE MORE FAVORABLE
COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD BE. THE BEST ADVICE IS
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SKY AND LATER FORECASTS IF YOU WILL BE
OUTDOORS THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...MORE OF THE SAME TONIGHT. WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
NORTH AS STRONGER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SYNOPTIC FLOW DEVELOPS.
DECENT INSTABILITY PERSISTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SO THINKING WE WILL
BE SEEING ANOTHER NIGHT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
THE GREATEST RISK OF THESE WILL BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AWAY FROM
THE STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF THE OCEAN.
THURSDAY...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A
LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER VALLEY. THIS LOW HAS A RATHER AMPLIFIED UPPER SYSTEM...SO
ITS COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION.
EXPECTING MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
VERY HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE AS WELL...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AROUND 1.7 INCHES. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH SOME SHOWERS...ALONG WITH SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. MAY NOT
QUITE REACH SEVERE THRESHOLDS AS CLOUDS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT...
THUS TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE LOWER THAN WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
* COOLER AND LESS HUMID FOR THE WEEKEND
CONFIDENCE LEVEL/MODEL GUIDANCE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL
FORECAST. 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE ELONGATED TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THERE IS STILL SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES ON WHEN THE SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST. REGARDLESS APPEARS THAT ELONGATED TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
NEW ENGLAND EVENTUALLY BECOMING A CUTOFF LOW BY THE WEEKEND. THIS
LOW WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES BY THE BEGINNING OF
THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AND COOLER TEMPS WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST AFTER TUES.
DETAILS...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION EVENTUALLY PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE TIMING OF THE FRONT DOWN...SO
BELIEVE THAT IT MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME ON FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF THE
MODEL DIFFERENCE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
REGARDLESS...BELIEVE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH WITH TEMPS NEAR AVG. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS REGIONS SOUTH OF THE I-84
CORRIDOR. MODELS INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY WITH ABOUT 25KTS OF
SHEAR. PWAT VALUES OF OVER 1.5 INCHES LEADS FORECASTER TO BELIEVE
THAT HEAVY DOWNPOURS IS THE MAIN THREAT...BUT WITH FALLING HEIGHTS
AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. ANY CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP WILL
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS DIURNAL HEATING IS LOST.
WEEKEND...TRICKY FORECAST IS PLAYING OUT FOR THE WEEKEND. MODELS
HAVE INDICATED THAT THE ELONGATED TROUGH WILL CUT OFF OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC AND SLOWLY ROTATE OVER NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH COOLER AIR...WELL BELOW AVG AND EVEN HAS
SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING OF PRECIP. BELIEVE THAT PRECIP MAY LINGER
INTO SAT...BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON
SUNDAY. FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE SLOW DOWN TREND IN THE
FORECAST. EXPECT HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH
LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. IF SKIES CLEAR OUT AS
THIS COLD POOL SITS OVER US...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AS THE ENTIRE REGION IS
OFFICIALLY IN THE GROWING SEASON.
MONDAY AND BEYOND...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL HELP TEMPS REACH SEASONAL
CONDITIONS. APPEARS THAT THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE KEEPING THE
FORECAST DRY...HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO...ESP
IF SEA BREEZES DEVELOPS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
STRATUS AND FOG THROUGH THIS MORNING.
TODAY...EXPECT MVFR-LIFR CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR
14-16Z AS SW WINDS DEVELOP. IFR MAY PERSIST MOST OF THE DAY AT
KACK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WEST OF KMHT-KORH-KIJD.
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. EXPECT VARIABLE
CONDITIONS DEPENDING UPON SHOWER AND FOG DEVELOPMENT. BETTER SHOT
FOR IFR VSBYS IN FOG ALONG S COAST ON S-SW WINDS AND MILD TEMPS
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
THOUGH BEST SHOT ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...WITH MVFR-IFR
CIGS/VSBYS. MAY SEE LOCAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING AND PLACEMENT.
THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. VARIABLE CONDITIONS BETWEEN VFR
AND MVFR/IFR IN SHRA/TSRA/PATCHY FOG. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION THU NIGHT...SO WILL SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN
AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT THU NIGHT...THEN INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS AFTER
06Z-07Z. MAY SEE SW WIND GUSTING UP TO 20-25 KT DURING THE DAY AS
WELL. WINDS SHIFT TO W-NW ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING OF LOWER CONDITIONS AND CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF...MAINLY DUE TO TIMING
OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. COULD SEE BRIEF IFR IN A BAND OF
TSRA.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
ON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENTS. VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH
VARIABILITY BETWEEN VFR CONDITIONS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
SHRA/TSRA/FOG. IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
THROUGH TODAY. INCREASING SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN SEAS BUILDING
OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ISSUED FOR
LATER TODAY INTO THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS WHERE CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHEST. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AS SUCH COULD SEE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPAND INTO MORE OF THE COASTAL WATERS AROUND
CAPE COD DUE TO 25 KT WIND GUSTS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH
ENOUGH TO ISSUE ADVISORIES FOR THOSE WATERS AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT LOW VSBYS IN HEAVY SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG AT TIMES.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY
NEAR SHORE.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO
CLEAR THE WATERS...SO EXPECT SW WINDS IN PLACE FOR A PORTION OF
THE DAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO W-NW ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.
THE WEEKEND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA FOR
MOST OF THE WEEKEND ESP FOR THE OUTER WATERS. GUSTY NW BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL BRING GUSTS CLOSE TO GALE FORCE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.
EXPECT BOTH SEAS AND WIND TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON SUNDAY.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
ANZ255-256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-254.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ237.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN
000
FXUS61 KBOX 220811
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
411 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TODAY. WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. COOLER AND
LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
4 AM UPDATE...
CONTINUING TO MONITOR WAVES OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING. LATEST
RUNS OF THE HRRR APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THESE BANDS OF
CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH ITS TIMING WAS SLOW BY A FEW HOURS. LEANED
HEAVILY ON THE 05Z HRRR WITH THE APPROPRIATE TIMING ADJUSTMENT
FOR THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
REASONABLY HOLDING TOGETHER IN A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT.
LATER TODAY...EXPECTING THE STALLED BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT TO MOVE
BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS AS TO
HOW FAST THIS WILL HAPPEN. CURRENTLY THINKING THERE IS NOT ENOUGH
PUSH TO DRIVE IT COMPLETELY THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS
SUCH...MAINTAINED COASTAL SEABREEZE FRONTS ALONG BOTH COASTS.
THIS HAS BIG RAMIFICATIONS FOR TEMPERATURES ALONG THE EAST COAST.
SHOULD THIS FRONT GET ENOUGH PUSH...CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES
ARE LIKELY 5-10 DEGREES TOO LOW ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. AM
MORE CONFIDENT WITH TEMPERATURES FARTHER INLAND. SHOULD THERE BE
MORE SUNSHINE THAT CURRENTLY THINKING...LIKELY TOO LOW FARTHER
INLAND AS WELL.
THINKING THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE TODAY OWING TO
LOTS OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM THE OVERNIGHT SHOWERS...AS WELL AS
NEW CONVECTIVE CLOUDS AS WE HEAD INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATER TODAY. THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER. THE GREATEST
RISK SHOULD BE FARTHER WEST OF OUR REGION WHERE THE MORE FAVORABLE
COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD BE. THE BEST ADVICE IS
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SKY AND LATER FORECASTS IF YOU WILL BE
OUTDOORS THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...MORE OF THE SAME TONIGHT. WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
NORTH AS STRONGER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SYNOPTIC FLOW DEVELOPS.
DECENT INSTABILITY PERSISTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SO THINKING WE WILL
BE SEEING ANOTHER NIGHT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
THE GREATEST RISK OF THESE WILL BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AWAY FROM
THE STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF THE OCEAN.
THURSDAY...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A
LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER VALLEY. THIS LOW HAS A RATHER AMPLIFIED UPPER SYSTEM...SO
ITS COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION.
EXPECTING MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
VERY HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE AS WELL...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AROUND 1.7 INCHES. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH SOME SHOWERS...ALONG WITH SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. MAY NOT
QUITE REACH SEVERE THRESHOLDS AS CLOUDS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT...
THUS TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE LOWER THAN WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
* COOLER AND LESS HUMID FOR THE WEEKEND
CONFIDENCE LEVEL/MODEL GUIDANCE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL
FORECAST. 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THE ELONGATED TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THERE IS STILL SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES ON WHEN THE SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST. REGARDLESS APPEARS THAT ELONGATED TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
NEW ENGLAND EVENTUALLY BECOMING A CUTOFF LOW BY THE WEEKEND. THIS
LOW WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES BY THE BEGINNING OF
THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AND COOLER TEMPS WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST AFTER TUES.
DETAILS...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION EVENTUALLY PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE TIMING OF THE FRONT DOWN...SO
BELIEVE THAT IT MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME ON FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF THE
MODEL DIFFERENCE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
REGARDLESS...BELIEVE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH WITH TEMPS NEAR AVG. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS REGIONS SOUTH OF THE I-84
CORRIDOR. MODELS INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY WITH ABOUT 25KTS OF
SHEAR. PWAT VALUES OF OVER 1.5 INCHES LEADS FORECASTER TO BELIEVE
THAT HEAVY DOWNPOURS IS THE MAIN THREAT...BUT WITH FALLING HEIGHTS
AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. ANY CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP WILL
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS DIURNAL HEATING IS LOST.
WEEKEND...TRICKY FORECAST IS PLAYING OUT FOR THE WEEKEND. MODELS
HAVE INDICATED THAT THE ELONGATED TROUGH WILL CUT OFF OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC AND SLOWLY ROTATE OVER NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH COOLER AIR...WELL BELOW AVG AND EVEN HAS
SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING OF PRECIP. BELIEVE THAT PRECIP MAY LINGER
INTO SAT...BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON
SUNDAY. FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE SLOW DOWN TREND IN THE
FORECAST. EXPECT HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH
LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. IF SKIES CLEAR OUT AS
THIS COLD POOL SITS OVER US...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AS THE ENTIRE REGION IS
OFFICIALLY IN THE GROWING SEASON.
MONDAY AND BEYOND...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL HELP TEMPS REACH SEASONAL
CONDITIONS. APPEARS THAT THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE KEEPING THE
FORECAST DRY...HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO...ESP
IF SEA BREEZES DEVELOPS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
STRATUS AND FOG THROUGH THIS MORNING.
THROUGH 12Z...EXPECTING BANDS OF STRONG ENOUGH CONVECTION TO
AVOID. THESE BANDS OF CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES EAST. MIXED CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD IFR
ACROSS THE MA COASTAL PLAIN AND MUCH OF RI AND NORTHERN
CT...IMPROVING TO POCKETS OF MVFR ACROSS THE INTERIOR. EVEN SOME
LOCALIZED VFR POSSIBLE.
TODAY...EXPECT MVFR-LIFR CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR
14-16Z AS SW WINDS DEVELOP. IFR MAY PERSIST MOST OF THE DAY AT
KACK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WEST OF KMHT-KORH-KIJD.
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. EXPECT VARIABLE
CONDITIONS DEPENDING UPON SHOWER AND FOG DEVELOPMENT. BETTER SHOT
FOR IFR VSBYS IN FOG ALONG S COAST ON S-SW WINDS AND MILD TEMPS
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
THOUGH BEST SHOT ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...WITH MVFR-IFR
CIGS/VSBYS. MAY SEE LOCAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING AND PLACEMENT.
THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. VARIABLE CONDITIONS BETWEEN VFR
AND MVFR/IFR IN SHRA/TSRA/PATCHY FOG. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION THU NIGHT...SO WILL SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN
AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT THU NIGHT...THEN INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS AFTER
06Z-07Z. MAY SEE SW WIND GUSTING UP TO 20-25 KT DURING THE DAY AS
WELL. WINDS SHIFT TO W-NW ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING OF LOWER CONDITIONS AND CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF...MAINLY DUE TO TIMING
OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. COULD SEE BRIEF IFR IN A BAND OF
TSRA. APPEARS THIS BAND WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINAL
THROUGH 0830Z. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
ON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENTS. VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH
VARIABILITY BETWEEN VFR CONDITIONS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
SHRA/TSRA/FOG. IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
THROUGH TODAY. INCREASING SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN SEAS BUILDING
OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ISSUED FOR
LATER TODAY INTO THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS WHERE CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHEST. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AS SUCH COULD SEE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPAND INTO MORE OF THE COASTAL WATERS AROUND
CAPE COD DUE TO 25 KT WIND GUSTS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH
ENOUGH TO ISSUE ADVISORIES FOR THOSE WATERS AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT LOW VSBYS IN HEAVY SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG AT TIMES.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY
NEAR SHORE.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO
CLEAR THE WATERS...SO EXPECT SW WINDS IN PLACE FOR A PORTION OF
THE DAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO W-NW ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.
THE WEEKEND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA FOR
MOST OF THE WEEKEND ESP FOR THE OUTER WATERS. GUSTY NW BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL BRING GUSTS CLOSE TO GALE FORCE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.
EXPECT BOTH SEAS AND WIND TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ON SUNDAY.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
ANZ255-256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ235-254.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ237.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN
000
FXUS61 KBOX 220641
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
241 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TODAY. WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. COOLER AND
LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
CONTINUING TO MONITOR WAVES OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING. LATEST
RUNS OF THE HRRR APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THESE BANDS OF
CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH ITS TIMING WAS SLOW BY A FEW HOURS. LEANED
HEAVILY ON THE HRRR WITH THE APPROPRIATE TIMING ADJUSTMENT FOR THE
EARLY MORNING FORECAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE REASONABLY
HOLDING TOGETHER IN A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT.
LATER TODAY...EXPECTING THE STALLED BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT TO MOVE
BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS AS TO
HOW FAST THIS WILL HAPPEN. CURRENTLY THINKING THERE IS NOT ENOUGH
PUSH TO DRIVE IT COMPLETELY THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS
SUCH...MAINTAINED COASTAL SEABREEZE FRONTS ALONG BOTH COASTS.
THIS HAS BIG RAMIFICATIONS FOR TEMPERATURES ALONG THE EAST COAST.
SHOULD THIS FRONT GET ENOUGH PUSH...CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES
ARE LIKELY 5-10 DEGREES TOO LOW ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. AM
MORE CONFIDENT WITH TEMPERATURES FARTHER INLAND. SHOULD THERE BE
MORE SUNSHINE THAT CURRENTLY THINKING...LIKELY TOO LOW FARTHER
INLAND AS WELL.
THINKING THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE TODAY OWING TO
LOTS OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM THE OVERNIGHT SHOWERS...AS WELL AS
NEW CONVECTIVE CLOUDS AS WE HEAD INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATER TODAY. THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER. THE GREATEST
RISK SHOULD BE FARTHER WEST OF OUR REGION WHERE THE MORE FAVORABLE
COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD BE. THE BEST ADVICE IS
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SKY AND LATER FORECASTS IF YOU WILL BE
OUTDOORS THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...MORE OF THE SAME TONIGHT. WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
NORTH AS STRONGER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SYNOPTIC FLOW DEVELOPS.
DECENT INSTABILITY PERSISTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SO THINKING WE WILL
BE SEEING ANOTHER NIGHT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
THE GREATEST RISK OF THESE WILL BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...AWAY FROM
THE STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF THE OCEAN.
THURSDAY...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A
LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER VALLEY. THIS LOW HAS A RATHER AMPLIFIED UPPER SYSTEM...SO
ITS COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION.
EXPECTING MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
VERY HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE AS WELL...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AROUND 1.7 INCHES. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH SOME SHOWERS...ALONG WITH SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. MAY NOT
QUITE REACH SEVERE THRESHOLDS AS CLOUDS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT...
THUS TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE LOWER THAN WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
* COOLER AND LESS HUMID FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL MODEL SUITE SIGNALING AN AMPLIFIED...
SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48. AT THE START...
NOTING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN
LAKES THOUGH SOME DIFFERENCES IN POSITIONING...ALONG WITH H5
CUTOFF LOW MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST. LOWER THAN AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
OPERATIONAL SUITE...THOUGH GENERAL SURFACE SYSTEM POSITIONS AND
TIMING SIGNALS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SEEM FAIRLY GOOD.
BETTER CONTINUITY AMONGST THE MODEL ENSEMBLES...SO LEANED CLOSER
TO THOSE BUT DID INCORPORATE A LITTLE OF THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF
INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE LONG TERM /WED NIGHT TO FRI/.
ANTICIPATE SLOW BUT STEADY CHANGE TO THE UPPER PATTERN LATE THIS
WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. FRI-SAT. THIS
WILL BRING AIRMASS CHANGE AS UPPER WINDS SHIFT TO NW...BRINGING
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR THE THU-FRI
TIMEFRAME WITH PERIODIC PRECIP AND SCATTERED CONVECTION...THEN
COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP THROUGH FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE BEYOND FRIDAY AS MAY SEE SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SOMETIME SAT. FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT TIMING IS DIFFICULT. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS THIS WEEKEND
TO RUN UP TO 5 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. DOES LOOK TO BE DRY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CLOSE TO SEASONABLE TEMPS.
DETAILS...
THURSDAY NIGHT...TIMING OF A COLD FRONT IS STILL IN QUESTION.
THOUGH APPEARS IT SHOULD SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT...MAY
REACH THE COAST BY 12Z FRI. HAVE CARRIED LIKELY TO CAT POPS AS
COLD FRONT PASSES. LOOKS LIKE BEST INSTABILITY MAY PASS E
OVERNIGHT...BUT COULD STILL SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION SO KEPT
SCT THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. TEMPS DO START DROPPING BACK TO THE
LOWER-MID 50S LATE ACROSS FAR INTERIOR AREAS.
FRIDAY...COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE E COAST DURING THE MORNING
BUT SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MID MORNING ACROSS E MA.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE THOUGH IT WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BLOCKING UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES
ACROSS LABRADOR INTO GREENLAND THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME...WHICH WILL
KEEP HIGH PRES BUILDING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. LONG RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EXPECT DRY AND COOL
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON
SATURDAY...EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S...RUNNING 4 TO 8
DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...THOUGH WILL MODIFY A BIT THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THIS TIMEFRAME.
DUE TO SEVERE WEATHER WATCH THIS AFTERNOON...KEPT PREVIOUS FORECAST
GOING FROM SUNDAY ONWARD...BUT LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
STRATUS AND FOG THROUGH THIS MORNING.
THROUGH 12Z...EXPECTING BANDS OF STRONG ENOUGH CONVECTION TO
AVOID. THESE BANDS OF CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES EAST. MIXED CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD IFR
ACROSS THE MA COASTAL PLAIN AND MUCH OF RI AND NORTHERN
CT...IMPROVING TO POCKETS OF MVFR ACROSS THE INTERIOR. EVEN SOME
LOCALIZED VFR POSSIBLE.
TODAY...EXPECT MVFR-LIFR CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR
14-16Z AS SW WINDS DEVELOP. IFR MAY PERSIST MOST OF THE DAY AT
KACK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WEST OF KMHT-KORH-KIJD.
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. EXPECT VARIABLE
CONDITIONS DEPENDING UPON SHOWER AND FOG DEVELOPMENT. BETTER SHOT
FOR IFR VSBYS IN FOG ALONG S COAST ON S-SW WINDS AND MILD TEMPS
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
THOUGH BEST SHOT ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...WITH MVFR-IFR
CIGS/VSBYS. MAY SEE LOCAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING AND PLACEMENT.
THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. VARIABLE CONDITIONS BETWEEN VFR
AND MVFR/IFR IN SHRA/TSRA/PATCHY FOG. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION THU NIGHT...SO WILL SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN
AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT THU NIGHT...THEN INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS AFTER
06Z-07Z. MAY SEE SW WIND GUSTING UP TO 20-25 KT DURING THE DAY AS
WELL. WINDS SHIFT TO W-NW ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING OF LOWER CONDITIONS AND CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF...MAINLY DUE TO TIMING
OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. COULD SEE BRIEF IFR IN A BAND OF
TSRA. APPEARS THIS BAND WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINAL
THROUGH 0830Z. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE LEFTOVER POCKETS OF
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS E MA THROUGH 14Z-15Z FRI.
OTHERWISE...VFR.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
THROUGH TODAY. INCREASING SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN SEAS BUILDING
OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. WILL ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR ROUGH SEAS LATER TODAY INTO THURSDAY. WINDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
EXPECT LOW VSBYS IN HEAVY SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG AT TIMES.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY
NEAR SHORE.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO
CLEAR THE WATERS...SO EXPECT SW WINDS IN PLACE FOR A PORTION OF
THE DAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO W-NW ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
SMALL CRAFT FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS. NW GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KT.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT
| 
