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000
FXUS61 KBOX 260256
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1056 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
TONIGHT. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY SUNDAY AS THIS LOW DEPARTS
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH
MODERATING TEMPS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDER. EXPECT WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
1050 PM UPDATE...MAINLY BROUGH NEAR-TERM FORECAST CONDITIONS IN
LINE WITH OBSERVED TRENDS. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE CONTINUE. THE SURFACE LOW WAS OFF PORTLAND
AND THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD. AS THESE SHIFT NORTHEAST...THE COLDEST
AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT RAIN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO
OCCUR EXISTS AT ELEVATIONS GREATER THAN 1000 FT. GIVEN THAT ITS
LATE MAY...TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE AND ON THE GROUND ARE TOO
WARM FOR ANY APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATIONS. ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS
TREES AND POWER LINES MAY SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW. LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGS BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE
DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN
FOR MOST OF THE DAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS PICK UP. EXPECTING GUSTS UP
TO 30-35 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. WILL
REMAIN COOL WITH HIGHS AGAIN 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOULD SEE CLEARING SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WINDS WILL STAY UP ENOUGH TO
PREVENT OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SO TEMPS WON/T BE AS COOL AS
TONIGHT BUT WILL STILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST USA MIGRATES NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE MARITIMES. UPPER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS SHIFTS
EAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. PACIFIC UPPER LOW DIGS OVER
THE ROCKIES MIDWEEK...THEN EJECTS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
NEXT WEEKEND.
MODEL PREFERENCES...UPPER CONTOUR FIELDS ARE SIMILAR FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK. MINOR DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING THE EJECTING PACIFIC LOW
UPSTREAM LATE WEEK. WE USED BLENDS OF HPC/GMOS AND GFS/ECMWF DATA
AS AVAILABLE.
THE DAILIES...
MONDAY-TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST MONDAY BUT STILL
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN. LIMITED
MOISTURE AROUND 850 MB SHOULD SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT...BUT NOT DEEP ENOUGH FOR ANY SHOWERS. MONDAY SHOULD
BE A DRY DAY WITH AT WORST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. OF MORE CONCERN
ARE THE TEMPERATURES. BOTH MAV AND MET GUIDANCE SHOW HIGHS IN THE
MID 70S PVD-BDL AND LOW 70S BOS...WHILE MODEL TEMPS AT THE TOP OF
THE MIXED LAYER SUPPORT VALUES OF 65-70. EITHER THE MODEL TEMPS
ALOFT ARE WRONG...THE PROJECTED MIXING DEPTH IS WRONG...OR MOS IS
WRONG. WE FAVORED A BLEND THAT EDGES TOWARD THE COOLER VALUES WITH
A RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT...DEWPOINTS 35-40. COULD
BE SOME FROST IN THE BERKSHIRES AND MONADNOCKS BUT ELSEWHERE TEMPS
SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TUESDAY WITH TEMPS ALOFT WARMING...VALUES
AROUND 9-10C SUPPORT MAX TEMPS 75-80. COOLER AT THE COAST AS THE
LIGHT FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR DEVELOPING SEA BREEZES.
WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL PUSH WARMING TEMPS INTO THE REGION.
WARM FRONT REPRESENTING THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS WARMER AIR MOVES
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
GENERATE SOME SHOWERS...AND STABILITY PARAMETERS SUPPORT POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDER AS WELL.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VERY WARM AIR ALOFT WITH 850 MB TEMPS
AROUND 16C. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. MIXING
SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S...DEWPOINTS
POINT TO HUMID AIR WITH NIGHT MINS IN THE 60S. SHOWER POTENTIAL
LOOKS LOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE.
BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE MAY KEEP THIS FRONT TO OUR
NORTH AND PRECLUDE SHOWERS. SO THE PCPN FORECAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE
BY NEXT SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE RAIN
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN WESTERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH. SHOWERS
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION. MVFR CIGS OVER
THE COASTAL PLAIN AND NORTH OF MASS ROUTE 2...MVFR/IFR VSBYS ALONG
THE EAST COAST. VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.
SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF FROM S-N
WITH VFR CONDITIONS MOST EVERYWHERE BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
OVERALL TIMING.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
OVERALL TIMING.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR
POSSIBLE IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SHOWERS/TSTMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEA BREEZES AT THE
COAST TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE ROTATES IN THE GULF OF MAINE AND THEN MOVES INTO THE
MARITIMES SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP FOR ALL MARINE
ZONES AT SOME POINT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
TAKE AWHILE TO KICK UP ON THE EASTERN WATERS SO ADVISORIES BEGIN
LATER OVER THOSE INTERIOR ZONES WHERE SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET.
WINDS WILL BE STRONGER ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS SO HAVE OPTED
FOR GALE WARNINGS ACROSS THOSE WATERS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
BUSIER HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SHOWERS AND FOG MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLDS. SOUTH WINDS MAY GUST NEAR 25 KNOTS NEARSHORE OF THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING NEAR 25 KNOTS NEARSHORE OF THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS. THE SOUTHWEST WIND WILL BUILD SEAS WITH 5-6 FOOT
VALUES ON THE OUTER WATERS...POSSIBLY ON RI AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS
AS WELL.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WHILE THERE MAY BE PERIODIC HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...NOT THINKING IT WILL BE
PERSISTENT ENOUGH TO RESULT IN FLOODING. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING CELLS THOUGH. NO HEADLINES PLANNED AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
MASSACHUSETTS THIS WEEKEND. AT BOSTON...A HIGH TIDE OF 12.2 FT
WILL OCCUR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AT 12:12 AM. AFTER HIGH TIDE THIS
AFTERNOON...THERE WAS ABOUT A HALF FOOT OF SURGE LINGERING AT
BOSTON. WITH ESTOFS INDICATING UP TO 0.7 FT SURGE...SEEMS
REASONABLE THAT IT COULD REACH 13 FEET EVEN WITH MINIMAL WAVE
ACTION OFFSHORE. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY ESPECIALLY BEING A MARGINAL EVENT BUT OPTED TO
ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS
ZONES FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME SPLASHOVER.
&&
.CLIMATE...
SEVERAL CLIMATE RECORDS COULD BE REACHED OVER THE WEEKEND. WHILE
BOSTON...PROVIDENCE...AND WORCESTER WERE SEVERAL DEGREES OVER
THEIR RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURE THIS AFTERNOON...HARTFORD HAS
TIED ITS RECORD LOW MAX OF 48 SO FAR. IF THEIR TEMPERATURE GOES UP
EVEN A DEGREE THE RECORD SET IN 1967 WILL HOLD. HOWEVER...THINK
THERES A GOOD CHANCE THAT WE WILL TIE THAT RECORD IN HARTFORD.
TONIGHT...THE FORECAST LOW AT WORCESTER...34 DEGREES...WOULD BREAK
THE CURRENT RECORD LOW OF 35 DEGREES SET IN 1992. THE FORECAST
LOWS AT PROVIDENCE...HARTFORD...AND BOSTON ARE WITHIN 2-3 DEGREES
OF THE PREVIOUS RECORDS /SEE BELOW/.
HARTFORD - FORECAST LOW - 39 RECORD LOW - 36 (1992)
PROVIDENCE - FORECAST LOW - 38 RECORD LOW - 35 (1972)
BOSTON - FORECAST LOW - 41 RECORD LOW - 39 (1882)
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237-
250-254.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
ANZ230-231-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ236.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ255-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/RLG
NEAR TERM...BELK/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN/RLG
MARINE...DUNTEN/RLG
HYDROLOGY...STAFF
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF
CLIMATE...RLG
000
FXUS61 KBOX 252327
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
727 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
TONIGHT. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY SUNDAY AS THIS LOW DEPARTS
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH
MODERATING TEMPS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDER. EXPECT WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
730 PM UPDATE...SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE CONTINUE. THE SURFACE LOW WAS OFF
PORTLAND AND THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD. AS THESE SHIFT
NORTHEAST...THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT RAIN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR EXISTS AT ELEVATIONS GREATER THAN
1000 FT. GIVEN THAT ITS LATE MAY...TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE AND
ON THE GROUND ARE TOO WARM FOR ANY APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATIONS.
ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS TREES AND POWER LINES MAY SEE A DUSTING
OF SNOW. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGS BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE
DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN
FOR MOST OF THE DAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS PICK UP. EXPECTING GUSTS UP
TO 30-35 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. WILL
REMAIN COOL WITH HIGHS AGAIN 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOULD SEE CLEARING SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WINDS WILL STAY UP ENOUGH TO
PREVENT OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SO TEMPS WON/T BE AS COOL AS
TONIGHT BUT WILL STILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST USA MIGRATES NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE MARITIMES. UPPER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS SHIFTS
EAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. PACIFIC UPPER LOW DIGS OVER
THE ROCKIES MIDWEEK...THEN EJECTS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
NEXT WEEKEND.
MODEL PREFERENCES... UPPER CONTOUR FIELDS ARE SIMILAR FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK. MINOR DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING THE EJECTING PACIFIC LOW
UPSTREAM LATE WEEK. WE USED BLENDS OF HPC/GMOS AND GFS/ECMWF DATA
AS AVAILABLE.
THE DAILIES...
MONDAY-TUESDAY... UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST MONDAY BUT STILL CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN. LIMITED MOISTURE AROUND
850 MB SHOULD SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT...BUT NOT DEEP
ENOUGH FOR ANY SHOWERS. MONDAY SHOULD BE A DRY DAY WITH AT WORST
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. OF MORE CONCERN ARE THE TEMPERATURES. BOTH
MAV AND MET GUIDANCE SHOW HIGHS IN THE MID 70S PVD-BDL AND LOW
70S BOS...WHILE MODEL TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER SUPPORT
VALUES OF 65-70. EITHER THE MODEL TEMPS ALOFT ARE WRONG...THE
PROJECTED MIXING DEPTH IS WRONG...OR MOS IS WRONG. WE FAVORED A
BLEND THAT EDGES TOWARD THE COOLER VALUES WITH A RANGE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT...DEWPOINTS 35-40. COULD
BE SOME FROST IN THE BERKSHIRES AND MONADNOCKS BUT ELSEWHERE TEMPS
SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TUESDAY WITH TEMPS ALOFT WARMING...VALUES
AROUND 9-10C SUPPORT MAX TEMPS 75-80. COOLER AT THE COAST AS THE
LIGHT FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR DEVELOPING SEA BREEZES.
WEDNESDAY... UPPER RIDGE WILL PUSH WARMING TEMPS INTO THE REGION.
WARM FRONT REPRESENTING THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS WARMER AIR MOVES
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
GENERATE SOME SHOWERS...AND STABILITY PARAMETERS SUPPORT POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDER AS WELL.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... VERY WARM AIR ALOFT WITH 850 MB TEMPS
AROUND 16C. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. MIXING
SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S...DEWPOINTS POINT
TO HUMID AIR WITH NIGHT MINS IN THE 60S. SHOWER POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS SATURDAY ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. BUT THE
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE MAY KEEP THIS FRONT TO OUR NORTH AND
PRECLUDE SHOWERS. SO THE PCPN FORECAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE BY NEXT
SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE RAIN
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN WESTERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH. SHOWERS
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION. MVFR CIGS OVER
THE COASTAL PLAIN AND NORTH OF MASS ROUTE 2...MVFR/IFR VSBYS ALONG
THE EAST COAST. VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.
SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF FROM S-N
WITH VFR CONDITIONS MOST EVERYWHERE BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
OVERALL TIMING.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
OVERALL TIMING.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... GENERALLY VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR POSSIBLE
IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS/TSTMS
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEA BREEZES AT THE COAST TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE ROTATES IN THE GULF OF MAINE AND THEN MOVES INTO THE
MARITIMES SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP FOR ALL MARINE
ZONES AT SOME POINT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
TAKE AWHILE TO KICK UP ON THE EASTERN WATERS SO ADVISORIES BEGIN
LATER OVER THOSE INTERIOR ZONES WHERE SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET.
WINDS WILL BE STRONGER ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS SO HAVE OPTED
FOR GALE WARNINGS ACROSS THOSE WATERS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
BUSIER HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SHOWERS AND FOG MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLDS. SOUTH WINDS MAY GUST NEAR 25 KNOTS NEARSHORE OF THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING NEAR 25 KNOTS NEARSHORE OF THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS. THE SOUTHWEST WIND WILL BUILD SEAS WITH 5-6 FOOT
VALUES ON THE OUTER WATERS...POSSIBLY ON RI AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS
AS WELL.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WHILE THERE MAY BE PERIODIC HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...NOT THINKING IT WILL BE
PERSISTENT ENOUGH TO RESULT IN FLOODING. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING CELLS THOUGH. NO HEADLINES PLANNED AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
MASSACHUSETTS THIS WEEKEND. AT BOSTON...A HIGH TIDE OF 12.2 FT
WILL OCCUR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AT 12:12 AM. AFTER HIGH TIDE THIS
AFTERNOON...THERE WAS ABOUT A HALF FOOT OF SURGE LINGERING AT
BOSTON. WITH ESTOFS INDICATING UP TO 0.7 FT SURGE...SEEMS
REASONABLE THAT IT COULD REACH 13 FEET EVEN WITH MINIMAL WAVE
ACTION OFFSHORE. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY ESPECIALLY BEING A MARGINAL EVENT BUT OPTED TO
ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS
ZONES FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME SPLASHOVER.
&&
.CLIMATE...
SEVERAL CLIMATE RECORDS COULD BE REACHED OVER THE WEEKEND. WHILE
BOSTON...PROVIDENCE...AND WORCESTER WERE SEVERAL DEGREES OVER
THEIR RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURE THIS AFTERNOON...HARTFORD HAS
TIED ITS RECORD LOW MAX OF 48 SO FAR. IF THEIR TEMPERATURE GOES UP
EVEN A DEGREE THE RECORD SET IN 1967 WILL HOLD. HOWEVER...THINK
THERES A GOOD CHANCE THAT WE WILL TIE THAT RECORD IN HARTFORD.
TONIGHT...THE FORECAST LOW AT WORCESTER...34 DEGREES...WOULD BREAK
THE CURRENT RECORD LOW OF 35 DEGREES SET IN 1992. THE FORECAST
LOWS AT PROVIDENCE...HARTFORD...AND BOSTON ARE WITHIN 2-3 DEGREES
OF THE PREVIOUS RECORDS /SEE BELOW/.
HARTFORD - FORECAST LOW - 39 RECORD LOW - 36 (1992)
PROVIDENCE - FORECAST LOW - 38 RECORD LOW - 35 (1972)
BOSTON - FORECAST LOW - 41 RECORD LOW - 39 (1882)
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ232>234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
ANZ230-231-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-
254.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ255-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/RLG
NEAR TERM...WTB/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN/RLG
MARINE...DUNTEN/RLG
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...
000
FXUS61 KBOX 251958
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
358 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY SUNDAY AS THIS LOW
DEPARTS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED WITH MODERATING TEMPS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDER. EXPECT WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
345 PM UPDATE...25/12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN
ZONES FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...SLOWLY EDGING EASTWARD AS THE
LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. AS OF 3 PM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
WAS IN THE GULF OF MAINE JUST EAST OF PORTLAND. A DRY SLOT ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO STRETCH ACROSS EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS INTO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. REGARDLESS...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN DRIZZLE AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT RAIN IN
THIS AREA.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE LOW WILL MAINTAIN DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION. THIS HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE AREA...15-20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND!
TONIGHT...THE MID-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST...SHIFTING
THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT RAIN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY MIX WITH OR
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THIS TO OCCUR EXISTS AT ELEVATIONS GREATER THAN 1000 FT. GIVEN
THAT ITS LATE MAY...TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE AND ON THE GROUND
ARE TOO WARM FOR ANY APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATIONS. ELEVATED SURFACES
SUCH AS TREES AND POWER LINES MAY SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGS BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE
DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN
FOR MOST OF THE DAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS PICK UP. EXPECTING GUSTS UP
TO 30-35 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. WILL
REMAIN COOL WITH HIGHS AGAIN 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOULD SEE CLEARING SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
TO BUILD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WINDS WILL STAY UP ENOUGH TO
PREVENT OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SO TEMPS WON/T BE AS COOL AS
TONIGHT BUT WILL STILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST USA MIGRATES NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE MARITIMES. UPPER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS SHIFTS
EAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. PACIFIC UPPER LOW DIGS OVER
THE ROCKIES MIDWEEK...THEN EJECTS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
NEXT WEEKEND.
MODEL PREFERENCES... UPPER CONTOUR FIELDS ARE SIMILAR FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK. MINOR DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING THE EJECTING PACIFIC LOW
UPSTREAM LATE WEEK. WE USED BLENDS OF HPC/GMOS AND GFS/ECMWF DATA
AS AVAILABLE.
THE DAILIES...
MONDAY-TUESDAY... UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST MONDAY BUT STILL CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN. LIMITED MOISTURE AROUND
850 MB SHOULD SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT...BUT NOT DEEP
ENOUGH FOR ANY SHOWERS. MONDAY SHOULD BE A DRY DAY WITH AT WORST
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. OF MORE CONCERN ARE THE TEMPERATURES. BOTH
MAV AND MET GUIDANCE SHOW HIGHS IN THE MID 70S PVD-BDL AND LOW
70S BOS...WHILE MODEL TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER SUPPORT
VALUES OF 65-70. EITHER THE MODEL TEMPS ALOFT ARE WRONG...THE
PROJECTED MIXING DEPTH IS WRONG...OR MOS IS WRONG. WE FAVORED A
BLEND THAT EDGES TOWARD THE COOLER VALUES WITH A RANGE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT...DEWPOINTS 35-40. COULD
BE SOME FROST IN THE BERKSHIRES AND MONADNOCKS BUT ELSEWHERE TEMPS
SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TUESDAY WITH TEMPS ALOFT WARMING...VALUES
AROUND 9-10C SUPPORT MAX TEMPS 75-80. COOLER AT THE COAST AS THE
LIGHT FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR DEVELOPING SEA BREEZES.
WEDNESDAY... UPPER RIDGE WILL PUSH WARMING TEMPS INTO THE REGION.
WARM FRONT REPRESENTING THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS WARMER AIR MOVES
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
GENERATE SOME SHOWERS...AND STABILITY PARAMETERS SUPPORT POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDER AS WELL.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... VERY WARM AIR ALOFT WITH 850 MB TEMPS
AROUND 16C. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. MIXING
SHOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S...DEWPOINTS POINT
TO HUMID AIR WITH NIGHT MINS IN THE 60S. SHOWER POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS SATURDAY ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. BUT THE
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE MAY KEEP THIS FRONT TO OUR NORTH AND
PRECLUDE SHOWERS. SO THE PCPN FORECAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE BY NEXT
SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO TONIGHT.
TODAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE INTO
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. NW WINDS MAY GUST TO 25
KT. IFR CONDITIONS PREDOMINANT EAST OF A WESTERLY RI TO ORANGE MA
LINE WITH MVFR TO ISOLATED VFR CONDITIONS WEST OF THIS LINE. TIMING
OF SHOWERS...AND THE SUBSEQUENT REDUCTION OF VISIBILITY IS DIFFICULT
TO TIME EXACTLY. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE RAIN
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN WESTERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH. SHOWERS
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION WITH VFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF ANY AREAS OF SHOWERS/FOG AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN AREAS OF FOG AND SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF FROM S-N
WITH VFR CONDITIONS MOST EVERYWHERE BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
OVERALL TIMING.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
OVERALL TIMING.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... GENERALLY VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR POSSIBLE
IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS/TSTMS
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEA BREEZES AT THE COAST TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE ROTATES IN THE GULF OF MAINE AND THEN MOVES INTO THE
MARITIMES SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP FOR ALL MARINE
ZONES AT SOME POINT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
TAKE AWHILE TO KICK UP ON THE EASTERN WATERS SO ADVISORIES BEGIN
LATER OVER THOSE INTERIOR ZONES WHERE SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET.
WINDS WILL BE STRONGER ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS SO HAVE OPTED
FOR GALE WARNINGS ACROSS THOSE WATERS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
BUSIER HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SHOWERS AND FOG MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLDS. SOUTH WINDS MAY GUST NEAR 25 KNOTS NEARSHORE OF THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING NEAR 25 KNOTS NEARSHORE OF THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS. THE SOUTHWEST WIND WILL BUILD SEAS WITH 5-6 FOOT
VALUES ON THE OUTER WATERS...POSSIBLY ON RI AND BLOCK ISLAND SOUNDS
AS WELL.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WHILE THERE MAY BE PERIODIC HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...NOT THINKING IT WILL BE
PERSISTENT ENOUGH TO RESULT IN FLOODING. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING CELLS THOUGH. NO HEADLINES PLANNED AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
MASSACHUSETTS THIS WEEKEND. AT BOSTON...A HIGH TIDE OF 12.2 FT
WILL OCCUR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AT 12:12 AM. AFTER HIGH TIDE THIS
AFTERNOON...THERE WAS ABOUT A HALF FOOT OF SURGE LINGERING AT
BOSTON. WITH ESTOFS INDICATING UP TO 0.7 FT SURGE...SEEMS
REASONABLE THAT IT COULD REACH 13 FEET EVEN WITH MINIMAL WAVE
ACTION OFFSHORE. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY ESPECIALLY BEING A MARGINAL EVENT BUT OPTED TO
ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS
ZONES FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SOME SPLASHOVER.
&&
.CLIMATE...
SEVERAL CLIMATE RECORDS COULD BE REACHED OVER THE WEEKEND. WHILE
BOSTON...PROVIDENCE...AND WORCESTER WERE SEVERAL DEGREES OVER
THEIR RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURE THIS AFTERNOON...HARTFORD HAS
TIED ITS RECORD LOW MAX OF 48 SO FAR. IF THEIR TEMPERATURE GOES UP
EVEN A DEGREE THE RECORD SET IN 1967 WILL HOLD. HOWEVER...THINK
THERES A GOOD CHANCE THAT WE WILL TIE THAT RECORD IN HARTFORD.
TONIGHT...THE FORECAST LOW AT WORCESTER...34 DEGREES...WOULD BREAK
THE CURRENT RECORD LOW OF 35 DEGREES SET IN 1992. THE FORECAST
LOWS AT PROVIDENCE...HARTFORD...AND BOSTON ARE WITHIN 2-3 DEGREES
OF THE PREVIOUS RECORDS /SEE BELOW/.
HARTFORD - FORECAST LOW - 39 RECORD LOW - 36 (1992)
PROVIDENCE - FORECAST LOW - 38 RECORD LOW - 35 (1972)
BOSTON - FORECAST LOW - 41 RECORD LOW - 39 (1882)
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR ANZ232>234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
ANZ230-231-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM EDT SUNDAY
FOR ANZ236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250-
254.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ255-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DUNTEN/RLG
NEAR TERM...RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...DUNTEN/RLG
MARINE...DUNTEN/RLG
HYDROLOGY...STAFF
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RLG
CLIMATE...RLG
000
FXUS61 KBOX 251813
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
213 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH THROUGH
TONIGHT. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY SUNDAY AS THIS LOW DEPARTS
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH
MODERATING TEMPS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDER. EXPECT WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
215 PM UPDATE...25/12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...SLOWLY EDGING EASTWARD
AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. AS OF 1 PM THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER WAS IN THE GULF OF MAINE JUST EAST OF PORTLAND. A DRY SLOT
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO STRETCH ACROSS EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS INTO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. REGARDLESS...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN DRIZZLE AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT RAIN IN
THIS AREA.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE LOW WILL MAINTAIN DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION. THIS HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE AREA...15-20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND!
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE MID-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST...SHIFTING
THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT RAIN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY MIX WITH OR
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THIS TO OCCUR EXISTS AT ELEVATIONS GREATER THAN 1000 FT. GIVEN
THAT ITS LATE MAY...TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE AND ON THE GROUND
ARE TOO WARM FOR ANY APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATIONS. ELEVATED SURFACES
SUCH AS TREES AND POWER LINES MAY SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGS BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.
SUNDAY...LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL END FROM S-N DURING THE DAY.
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN FOR MOST OF THE DAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS PICK UP.
EXPECTING GUSTS UP TO 30-35 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS. WILL REMAIN COOL WITH HIGHS AGAIN 10-15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* IMPROVEMENTS ON MONDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPS THROUGH THE MID WEEK.
* WARM FRONT MID-WEEK WILL BRING AROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER.
* MUGGY AND WELL ABOVE AVG CONDITIONS RETURN BY THURS.
CONFIDENCE LEVEL/MODEL GUIDANCE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION FORECAST...MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE BY
END OF NEXT WEEK...HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS. MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS RUN SHOWING A UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS...WHILE A STRONG AMPLIFIED RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE EASTERN USA. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH HOW MUCH THE
HEIGHTS BUILD BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE HAVE LEANED WITH
WPC THINKING FOR THE FORECAST AND THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR DAYS 6 AND
7.
DETAILS...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EJECT EASTWARD AS A
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. THE SURFACE LOW WHICH BROUGHT RAIN
AND COOL TEMPS WILL BE WELL IN THE GULF OF MAINE ALLOWING FOR
DRYING CONDITIONS AND SUNNY SKIES. AM CONCERNED ABOUT SUN NIGHT
TEMPS...MAY BE TO WARM AS WINDS DECREASE AND SKIES CLEAR...FROST
MAY BE A POSSIBILITY ESP IN THE NW ZONES. OTHERWISE EXPECT A
PLEASANT MEMORIAL DAY WITH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S
AND SUNNY SKIES. TUESDAY WILL BE A REPEAT BUT WITH TEMPS WARMING
INTO THE MID 70S THANKS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT. COOLER
ALONG THE COAST AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP.
WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GLIDE EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER A FEW RIPPLES IN THE FLOW WILL PUSH A WARM
FRONT OVER NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY AND
LASTING INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. CONVECTION PARAMETERS POINT
TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT SO CONTINUED THE
MENTIONING OF THUNDER. TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...
ONCE THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
RETURN TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CANNOT RULE OUT A SPOT SHOWERS
SINCE THE REGION WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER MAIN ISSUE TO
WATCH IS THE MAX TEMPS...WHICH MAY REACH THE MID 80S. SOME MODELS
EVEN PUSH THE REGION INTO THE 90S. SINCE THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS AWAY
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODEST AND KEEP TEMPS INTO THE MID TO LOW 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO TONIGHT.
TODAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE INTO
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. NW WINDS MAY GUST TO 25
KT. IFR CONDITIONS PREDOMINANT EAST OF A WESTERLY RI TO ORANGE MA
LINE WITH MVFR TO ISOLATED VFR CONDITIONS WEST OF THIS LINE. TIMING
OF SHOWERS...AND THE SUBSEQUENT REDUCTION OF VISIBILITY IS DIFFICULT
TO TIME EXACTLY. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE RAIN
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN WESTERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH. SHOWERS
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION WITH VFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF ANY AREAS OF SHOWERS/FOG AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN AREAS OF FOG AND SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF FROM S-N
WITH VFR CONDITIONS MOST EVERYWHERE BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
OVERALL TIMING.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
OVERALL TIMING.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.
WEDNESDAY...MODERATED CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. MAY SEE CLOUDS/SCT
SHOWERS MOVE IN AHEAD OF WARM FRONT WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY...LOW PRES TRACKS FROM NANTUCKET TO GULF OF MAINE. NW WINDS
UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LINGERING S SWELLS SOUTH WATERS OF
RI AND MA. SHOWERS REDUCE VSBY AS WELL. DECIDED TO UPGRADE SOME OF
THE SMALL ADVISORIES TO GALE WARNINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. HELD OFF ON A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR CAPE COD BAY...AS
CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT ONE. WOULD NOT BE
OVERLY SURPRISED OF ONE IS ISSUED LATER TODAY.
TONIGHT-SUNDAY...SURFACE LOW WILL LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN
WATERS TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT SLOWLY NE SUNDAY. SEAS REMAINING
ABOVE 5 FT. W-NW WINDS WILL PICK UP...WITH GUSTS UP TO GALE FORCE
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO S AND E OF NANTUCKET. WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH. WIND
GUSTS ON MONDAY MAY REACH CLOSE TO 25KTS ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. OTHERWISE GOOD BOATING WEATHER ON TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP
DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT. SEAS WILL BE ABOVE 5 FT.
A SCA MAY BE NEEDED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WHILE THERE MAY BE PERIODIC HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TODAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...NOT THINKING IT WILL BE
PERSISTENT ENOUGH TO RESULT IN FLOODING. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING CELLS THOUGH. NO HEADLINES PLANNED AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EAST COAST OF MA THIS WEEKEND...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES THIS WEEKEND. AT BOSTON...A HIGH TIDE OF
12.2 FT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AT 12:12 AM. ESTOFS INDICATING UP TO
0.7 FT SURGE WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. DESPITE THE LACK OF MUCH
WAVE ACTION COULD SEE SOME SPLASHOVER AT THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS OF EASTERN MA. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY ESPECIALLY GIVEN A MARGINAL EVENT. LATER
SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO REEVALUATE THIS RISK.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ232>234-236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT SUNDAY
FOR ANZ230.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-250-251.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ254.
GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ255-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/RLG
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...DUNTEN/RLG
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
000
FXUS61 KBOX 251409
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1009 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH THROUGH
TONIGHT. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY SUNDAY AS THIS LOW DEPARTS
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH
MODERATING TEMPS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDER. EXPECT WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR TODAY FOR THE MOST PART.
MADE SOME MINOR UPDATES TO THE POP/WX GRIDS FOR THE LATEST PRECIP
TRENDS...BUT OTHERWISE THE FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE. LATEST
MSAS ANALYSIS PUTS THE LOW PRESSURE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AS OF 9
AM. CONTINUE TO SEE A GOOD SWATH OF DRY AIR ON THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY EAST OF THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AS WELL AS CAPE
ANN. HOWEVER...THINK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH THAT
DRIZZLE AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
AREA. STEADIER RAIN ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKS AND
WESTERN CONNECTICUT IS NEARLY STATIONARY AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
25/00Z MODELS HAVE COME INTO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THEIR
HANDLING OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES. AS SUCH...USED A GENERAL MODEL
COMPROMISE TO HANDLE THE TIMING.
OVERALL...EXPECTING A LOW PRESSURE OVER MASSACHUSETTS BAY TO STAY
NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY. THIS WILL GENERATE PERIODS OF SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AS WELL AS MAINTAINING DECENT COLD
AIR ADVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH
HIGHER THAN OUR NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES. FOR SOME HIGHER
LOCATIONS...HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY MAY ACTUALLY BE LOWER THAN THE
NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURE.
HEIGHTS ALOFT CONTINUE TO FALL WHICH RESULTS IN COOLING FROM THE
TOP DOWN. VERY IMPRESSIVE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING VIA MID LEVEL
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. STRONGEST LIFT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ACROSS
WESTERN SECTIONS OF CT/MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH...CENTERED AROUND THE
I-91 CORRIDOR. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS
THIS AREA ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MA/NH THAT RAIN MAY MIX
OR CHANGE TO SNOW AT TIMES WHEN PRECIPITATION INTENSITY IS
GREATEST. THIS WILL BE MOST COMMON AT ELEVATIONS GREATER THAN 1000
FT AS FREEZING LEVELS DROP TO THIS LEVEL. SURFACE AND GROUND
TEMPERATURES LIKELY TOO WARM FOR ANY ACCUMULATION BUT MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ON TREES/POWER LINES. DON/T EXPECT ANY
IMPACT JUST SOME DECORATIVE SNOW POSSIBLE HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A MID-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST TODAY...WHICH WILL
PLACE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WELL INTO THE CORE OF COLDER AIR ALOFT
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE POSSIBILITY FOR MIXED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGS BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
AS FOR ANY CONVECTION...HAVE REMOVED MENTION FOR NOW BUT WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO HEAR A FEW ISOLD RUMBLES AS PRECIP AND UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM START TO SHIFT NE.
ON SUNDAY...LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL END FROM S-N DURING THE DAY.
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN FOR MOST OF THE DAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS PICK
UP. EXPECTING GUSTS UP TO 30-35 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND WESTERN AREAS. WILL REMAIN COOL WITH HIGHS AGAIN 10-15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* IMPROVEMENTS ON MONDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPS THROUGH THE MID WEEK.
* WARM FRONT MID-WEEK WILL BRING AROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER.
* MUGGY AND WELL ABOVE AVG CONDITIONS RETURN BY THURS.
CONFIDENCE LEVEL/MODEL GUIDANCE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION FORECAST...MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE BY
END OF NEXT WEEK...HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS. MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS RUN SHOWING A UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS...WHILE A STRONG AMPLIFIED RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE EASTERN USA. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH HOW MUCH THE
HEIGHTS BUILD BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE HAVE LEANED WITH
WPC THINKING FOR THE FORECAST AND THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR DAYS 6 AND
7.
DETAILS...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EJECT EASTWARD AS A
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. THE SURFACE LOW WHICH BROUGHT RAIN
AND COOL TEMPS WILL BE WELL IN THE GULF OF MAINE ALLOWING FOR
DRYING CONDITIONS AND SUNNY SKIES. AM CONCERNED ABOUT SUN NIGHT
TEMPS...MAY BE TO WARM AS WINDS DECREASE AND SKIES CLEAR...FROST
MAY BE A POSSIBILITY ESP IN THE NW ZONES. OTHERWISE EXPECT A
PLEASANT MEMORIAL DAY WITH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S
AND SUNNY SKIES. TUESDAY WILL BE A REPEAT BUT WITH TEMPS WARMING
INTO THE MID 70S THANKS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT. COOLER
ALONG THE COAST AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP.
WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GLIDE EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER A FEW RIPPLES IN THE FLOW WILL PUSH A WARM
FRONT OVER NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY AND
LASTING INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. CONVECTION PARAMETERS POINT
TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT SO CONTINUED THE
MENTIONING OF THUNDER. TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...
ONCE THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
RETURN TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CANNOT RULE OUT A SPOT SHOWERS
SINCE THE REGION WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER MAIN ISSUE TO
WATCH IS THE MAX TEMPS...WHICH MAY REACH THE MID 80S. SOME MODELS
EVEN PUSH THE REGION INTO THE 90S. SINCE THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS AWAY
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODEST AND KEEP TEMPS INTO THE MID TO LOW 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO TONIGHT.
TODAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND PIVOTS INTO
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE
RAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH. NW
WINDS MAY GUSTS TO 25 KT. IFR CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST MA WITH MVFR
ELSEWHERE. TIMING OF PRECIPITATION...AND THE DECREASE OF
VISIBILITY...VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME EXACTLY. TAFS WERE MORE OF AN
OVERALL EXPECTATION OF CONDITIONS WITHIN SHOWERS. VISIBILITY
SHOULD BE BETTER OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS.
TONIGHT-SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH
VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM VFR TO MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA/FOG.
LOW PROB OF ISOLD TSTM TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF FROM S-N
DURING SUNDAY WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE SUNDAY.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
OVERALL TIMING.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.
WEDNESDAY...MODERATED CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. MAY SEE CLOUDS/SCT
SHOWERS MOVE IN AHEAD OF WARM FRONT WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY...LOW PRES TRACKS FROM NANTUCKET TO GULF OF MAINE. NW WINDS
UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LINGERING S SWELLS SOUTH WATERS OF
RI AND MA. SHOWERS REDUCE VSBY AS WELL. DECIDED TO UPGRADE SOME OF
THE SMALL ADVISORIES TO GALE WARNINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. HELD OFF ON A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR CAPE COD BAY...AS
CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT ONE. WOULD NOT BE
OVERLY SURPRISED OF ONE IS ISSUED LATER TODAY.
TONIGHT-SUNDAY...SURFACE LOW WILL LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN
WATERS TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT SLOWLY NE SUNDAY. SEAS REMAINING
ABOVE 5 FT. W-NW WINDS WILL PICK UP...WITH GUSTS UP TO GALE FORCE
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO S AND E OF NANTUCKET. WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH. WIND
GUSTS ON MONDAY MAY REACH CLOSE TO 25KTS ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. OTHERWISE GOOD BOATING WEATHER ON TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP
DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT. SEAS WILL BE ABOVE 5 FT.
A SCA MAY BE NEEDED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WHILE THERE MAY BE PERIODIC HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TODAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...NOT THINKING IT WILL BE
PERSISTENT ENOUGH TO RESULT IN FLOODING. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING CELLS THOUGH. NO HEADLINES PLANNED AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EAST COAST OF MA THIS WEEKEND...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES THIS WEEKEND. AT BOSTON...A HIGH TIDE OF
12.2 FT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AT 12:12 AM. ESTOFS INDICATING UP TO
0.7 FT SURGE WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. DESPITE THE LACK OF MUCH
WAVE ACTION COULD SEE SOME SPLASHOVER AT THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS OF EASTERN MA. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY ESPECIALLY GIVEN A MARGINAL EVENT. LATER
SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO REEVALUATE THIS RISK.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
SUNDAY FOR ANZ232>234-236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT SUNDAY
FOR ANZ230.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-250-251.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ235-237.
GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ254.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ255-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN/RLG
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN
HYDROLOGY...BELK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...THOMPSON
000
FXUS61 KBOX 251103
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
703 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH THROUGH
TONIGHT. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY SUNDAY AS THIS LOW DEPARTS
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH
MODERATING TEMPS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDER. EXPECT WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
730 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST GENERALLY REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SITTING OFF THE CHATHAM COASTLINE. THIS
WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN COOL TEMPS. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY IS SHOWING A GOOD DRY PUNCH WORKING ITS WAY UP THE
CAPE/ISLANDS/EASTERN MA COASTLINE. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO
BREAK AND PRECIP TO END FOR A FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE SWATH OF PRECIP
IS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER CT AND WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD
AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE MARITIMES THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
25/00Z MODELS HAVE COME INTO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THEIR
HANDLING OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES. AS SUCH...USED A GENERAL MODEL
COMPROMISE TO HANDLE THE TIMING.
OVERALL...EXPECTING A LOW PRESSURE OVER MASSACHUSETTS BAY TO STAY
NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY. THIS WILL GENERATE PERIODS OF SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AS WELL AS MAINTAINING DECENT COLD
AIR ADVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH
HIGHER THAN OUR NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES. FOR SOME HIGHER
LOCATIONS...HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY MAY ACTUALLY BE LOWER THAN THE
NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURE.
HEIGHTS ALOFT CONTINUE TO FALL WHICH RESULTS IN COOLING FROM THE
TOP DOWN. VERY IMPRESSIVE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING VIA MID LEVEL
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. STRONGEST LIFT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ACROSS
WESTERN SECTIONS OF CT/MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH...CENTERED AROUND THE
I-91 CORRIDOR. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS
THIS AREA ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MA/NH THAT RAIN MAY MIX
OR CHANGE TO SNOW AT TIMES WHEN PRECIPITATION INTENSITY IS
GREATEST. THIS WILL BE MOST COMMON AT ELEVATIONS GREATER THAN 1000
FT AS FREEZING LEVELS DROP TO THIS LEVEL. SURFACE AND GROUND
TEMPERATURES LIKELY TOO WARM FOR ANY ACCUMULATION BUT MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ON TREES/POWERLINES. DON/T EXPECT ANY IMPACT
JUST SOME DECORATIVE SNOW POSSIBLE HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A MID-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST TODAY...WHICH WILL
PLACE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WELL INTO THE CORE OF COLDER AIR ALOFT
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE POSSIBILITY FOR MIXED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGS BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
AS FOR ANY CONVECTION...HAVE REMOVED MENTION FOR NOW BUT WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO HEAR A FEW ISOLD RUMBLES AS PRECIP AND UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM START TO SHIFT NE.
ON SUNDAY...LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL END FROM S-N DURING THE DAY.
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN FOR MOST OF THE DAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS PICK
UP. EXPECTING GUSTS UP TO 30-35 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND WESTERN AREAS. WILL REMAIN COOL WITH HIGHS AGAIN 10-15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* IMPROVEMENTS ON MONDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPS THROUGH THE MID WEEK.
* WARM FRONT MID-WEEK WILL BRING AROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER.
* MUGGY AND WELL ABOVE AVG CONDITIONS RETURN BY THURS.
CONFIDENCE LEVEL/MODEL GUIDANCE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION FORECAST...MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE BY
END OF NEXT WEEK...HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS. MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS RUN SHOWING A UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS...WHILE A STRONG AMPLIFIED RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE EASTERN USA. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH HOW MUCH THE
HEIGHTS BUILD BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE HAVE LEANED WITH
WPC THINKING FOR THE FORECAST AND THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR DAYS 6 AND
7.
DETAILS...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EJECT EASTWARD AS A
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. THE SURFACE LOW WHICH BROUGHT RAIN
AND COOL TEMPS WILL BE WELL IN THE GULF OF MAINE ALLOWING FOR
DRYING CONDITIONS AND SUNNY SKIES. AM CONCERNED ABOUT SUN NIGHT
TEMPS...MAY BE TO WARM AS WINDS DECREASE AND SKIES CLEAR...FROST
MAY BE A POSSIBILITY ESP IN THE NW ZONES. OTHERWISE EXPECT A
PLEASANT MEMORIAL DAY WITH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S
AND SUNNY SKIES. TUESDAY WILL BE A REPEAT BUT WITH TEMPS WARMING
INTO THE MID 70S THANKS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT. COOLER
ALONG THE COAST AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP.
WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GLIDE EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER A FEW RIPPLES IN THE FLOW WILL PUSH A WARM
FRONT OVER NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY AND
LASTING INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. CONVECTION PARAMETERS POINT
TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT SO CONTINUED THE
MENTIONING OF THUNDER. TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...
ONCE THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
RETURN TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CANNOT RULE OUT A SPOT SHOWERS
SINCE THE REGION WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER MAIN ISSUE TO
WATCH IS THE MAX TEMPS...WHICH MAY REACH THE MID 80S. SOME MODELS
EVEN PUSH THE REGION INTO THE 90S. SINCE THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS AWAY
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODEST AND KEEP TEMPS INTO THE MID TO LOW 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO TONIGHT.
TODAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND PIVOTS INTO
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE
RAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH. NW
WINDS MAY GUSTS TO 25 KT. IFR CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST MA WITH MVFR
ELSEWHERE. TIMING OF PRECIPITATION...AND THE DECREASE OF
VISIBILITY...VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME EXACTLY. TAFS WERE MORE OF AN
OVERALL EXPECTATION OF CONDITIONS WITHIN SHOWERS. VISIBILITY
SHOULD BE BETTER OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS.
TONIGHT-SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH
VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM VFR TO MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA/FOG.
LOW PROB OF ISOLD TSTM TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF FROM S-N
DURING SUNDAY WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE SUNDAY.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW COFNIDENCE IN
OVERALL TIMING.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.
WEDNESDAY...MODERATED CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. MAY SEE CLOUDS/SCT
SHOWERS MOVE IN AHEAD OF WARM FRONT WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY...LOW PRES TRACKS FROM NANTUCKET TO GULF OF MAINE. NW WINDS
UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LINGERING S SWELLS SOUTH WATERS OF
RI AND MA. SHOWERS REDUCE VSBY AS WELL. DECIDED TO UPGRADE SOME OF
THE SMALL ADVISORIES TO GALE WARNINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. HELD OFF ON A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR CAPE COD BAY...AS
CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT ONE. WOULD NOT BE
OVERLY SURPRISED OF ONE IS ISSUED LATER TODAY.
TONIGHT-SUNDAY...SURFACE LOW WILL LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN
WATERS TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT SLOWLY NE SUNDAY. SEAS REMAINING
ABOVE 5 FT. W-NW WINDS WILL PICK UP...WITH GUSTS UP TO GALE FORCE
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO S AND E OF NANTUCKET. WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH. WIND
GUSTS ON MONDAY MAY REACH CLOSE TO 25KTS ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. OTHERWISE GOOD BOATING WEATHER ON TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP
DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT. SEAS WILL BE ABOVE 5 FT.
A SCA MAY BE NEEDED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WHILE THERE MAY BE PERIODIC HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TODAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...NOT THINKING IT WILL BE
PERSISTENT ENOUGH TO RESULT IN FLOODING. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING CELLS THOUGH. NO HEADLINES PLANNED AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EAST COAST OF MA THIS WEEKEND...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES THIS WEEKEND. AT BOSTON...A HIGH TIDE OF
12.2 FT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AT 12:12 AM. ESTOFS INDICATING UP TO
0.7 FT SURGE WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. DESPITE THE LACK OF MUCH
WAVE ACTION COULD SEE SOME MINOR INUNDATION. AT THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS OF EASTERN MA. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY ESPECIALLY GIVEN A MARGINAL EVENT.
LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO REEVALUATE THIS RISK.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
SUNDAY FOR ANZ232>234-236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT SUNDAY
FOR ANZ230.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231-250-251.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ235-237.
GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ254.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ255-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
000
FXUS61 KBOX 250833
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
433 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH THROUGH
TONIGHT. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY SUNDAY AS THIS LOW DEPARTS
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH
MODERATING TEMPS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDER. EXPECT WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
25/00Z MODELS HAVE COME INTO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THEIR
HANDLING OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES. AS SUCH...USED A GENERAL MODEL
COMPROMISE TO HANDLE THE TIMING.
OVERALL...EXPECTING A LOW PRESSURE OVER MASSACHUSETTS BAY TO STAY
NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY. THIS WILL GENERATE PERIODS OF SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AS WELL AS MAINTAINING DECENT COLD
AIR ADVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH
HIGHER THAN OUR NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES. FOR SOME HIGHER
LOCATIONS...HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY MAY ACTUALLY BE LOWER THAN THE
NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURE.
HEIGHTS ALOFT CONTINUE TO FALL WHICH RESULTS IN COOLING FROM THE
TOP DOWN. VERY IMPRESSIVE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING VIA MID LEVEL
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. STRONGEST LIFT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ACROSS
WESTERN SECTIONS OF CT/MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH...CENTERED AROUND THE
I-91 CORRIDOR. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS
THIS AREA ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MA/NH THAT RAIN MAY MIX
OR CHANGE TO SNOW AT TIMES WHEN PRECIPITATION INTENSITY IS
GREATEST. THIS WILL BE MOST COMMON AT ELEVATIONS GREATER THAN 1000
FT AS FREEZING LEVELS DROP TO THIS LEVEL. SURFACE AND GROUND
TEMPERATURES LIKELY TOO WARM FOR ANY ACCUMULATION BUT MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ON TREES/POWERLINES. DON/T EXPECT ANY IMPACT
JUST SOME DECORATIVE SNOW POSSIBLE HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A MID-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST TODAY...WHICH WILL
PLACE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WELL INTO THE CORE OF COLDER AIR ALOFT
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE POSSIBILITY FOR MIXED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGS BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
AS FOR ANY CONVECTION...HAVE REMOVED MENTION FOR NOW BUT WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO HEAR A FEW ISOLD RUMBLES AS PRECIP AND UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM START TO SHIFT NE.
ON SUNDAY...LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL END FROM S-N DURING THE DAY.
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN FOR MOST OF THE DAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS PICK
UP. EXPECTING GUSTS UP TO 30-35 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND WESTERN AREAS. WILL REMAIN COOL WITH HIGHS AGAIN 10-15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* IMPROVEMENTS ON MONDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPS THROUGH THE MID WEEK.
* WARM FRONT MID-WEEK WILL BRING AROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER.
* MUGGY AND WELL ABOVE AVG CONDITIONS RETURN BY THURS.
CONFIDENCE LEVEL/MODEL GUIDANCE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION FORECAST...MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE BY
END OF NEXT WEEK...HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS. MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS RUN SHOWING A UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS...WHILE A STRONG AMPLIFIED RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE EASTERN USA. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH HOW MUCH THE
HEIGHTS BUILD BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE HAVE LEANED WITH
WPC THINKING FOR THE FORECAST AND THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR DAYS 6 AND
7.
DETAILS...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EJECT EASTWARD AS A
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. THE SURFACE LOW WHICH BROUGHT RAIN
AND COOL TEMPS WILL BE WELL IN THE GULF OF MAINE ALLOWING FOR
DRYING CONDITIONS AND SUNNY SKIES. AM CONCERNED ABOUT SUN NIGHT
TEMPS...MAY BE TO WARM AS WINDS DECREASE AND SKIES CLEAR...FROST
MAY BE A POSSIBILITY ESP IN THE NW ZONES. OTHERWISE EXPECT A
PLEASANT MEMORIAL DAY WITH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S
AND SUNNY SKIES. TUESDAY WILL BE A REPEAT BUT WITH TEMPS WARMING
INTO THE MID 70S THANKS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT. COOLER
ALONG THE COAST AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP.
WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GLIDE EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER A FEW RIPPLES IN THE FLOW WILL PUSH A WARM
FRONT OVER NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY AND
LASTING INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. CONVECTION PARAMETERS POINT
TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT SO CONTINUED THE
MENTIONING OF THUNDER. TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...
ONCE THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
RETURN TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CANNOT RULE OUT A SPOT SHOWERS
SINCE THE REGION WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER MAIN ISSUE TO
WATCH IS THE MAX TEMPS...WHICH MAY REACH THE MID 80S. SOME MODELS
EVEN PUSH THE REGION INTO THE 90S. SINCE THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS AWAY
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODEST AND KEEP TEMPS INTO THE MID TO LOW 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO TONIGHT.
TODAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND PIVOTS INTO
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE
RAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH. NW
WINDS MAY GUSTS TO 25 KT. IFR CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST MA WITH MVFR
ELSEWHERE. TIMING OF PRECIPITATION...AND THE DECREASE OF
VISIBILITY...VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME EXACTLY. TAFS WERE MORE OF AN
OVERALL EXPECTATION OF CONDITIONS WITHIN SHOWERS. VISIBILITY
SHOULD BE BETTER OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS.
TONIGHT-SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH
VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM VFR TO MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA/FOG.
LOW PROB OF ISOLD TSTM TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF FROM S-N
DURING SUNDAY WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE SUNDAY.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.
WEDNESDAY...MODERATED CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. MAY SEE CLOUDS/SCT
SHOWERS MOVE IN AHEAD OF WARM FRONT WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY...LOW PRES TRACKS FROM NANTUCKET TO GULF OF MAINE. NW WINDS
UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LINGERING S SWELLS SOUTH WATERS OF
RI AND MA. SHOWERS REDUCE VSBY AS WELL. DECIDED TO UPGRADE SOME OF
THE SMALL ADVISORIES TO GALE WARNINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. HELD OFF ON A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR CAPE COD BAY...AS
CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT ONE. WOULD NOT BE
OVERLY SURPRISED OF ONE IS ISSUED LATER TODAY.
TONIGHT-SUNDAY...SURFACE LOW WILL LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN
WATERS TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT SLOWLY NE SUNDAY. SEAS REMAINING
ABOVE 5 FT. W-NW WINDS WILL PICK UP...WITH GUSTS UP TO GALE FORCE
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO S AND E OF NANTUCKET. WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH. WIND
GUSTS ON MONDAY MAY REACH CLOSE TO 25KTS ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. OTHERWISE GOOD BOATING WEATHER ON TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP
DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT. SEAS WILL BE ABOVE 5 FT.
A SCA MAY BE NEEDED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WHILE THERE MAY BE PERIODIC HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TODAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...NOT THINKING IT WILL BE
PERSISTENT ENOUGH TO RESULT IN FLOODING. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING CELLS THOUGH. NO HEADLINES PLANNED AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EAST COAST OF MA THIS WEEKEND...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES THIS WEEKEND. AT BOSTON...A HIGH TIDE OF
12.2 FT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AT 12:12 AM. ESTOFS INDICATING UP TO
0.7 FT SURGE WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. DESPITE THE LACK OF MUCH
WAVE ACTION COULD SEE SOME MINOR INUNDATION. AT THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS OF EASTERN MA. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY ESPECIALLY GIVEN A MARGINAL EVENT.
LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO REEVALUATE THIS RISK.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
SUNDAY FOR ANZ232>234-236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT SUNDAY
FOR ANZ230.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250-251.
GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ254.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ255-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN
HYDROLOGY...BELK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BELK/NOCERA
000
FXUS61 KBOX 250759
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
359 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH THROUGH
TONIGHT. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY SUNDAY AS THIS LOW DEPARTS
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH
MODERATING TEMPS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDER. EXPECT WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
25/00Z MODELS HAVE COME INTO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THEIR
HANDLING OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES. AS SUCH...USED A GENERAL MODEL
COMPROMISE TO HANDLE THE TIMING.
OVERALL...EXPECTING A LOW PRESSURE OVER MASSACHUSETTS BAY TO STAY
NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY. THIS WILL GENERATE PERIODS OF SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AS WELL AS MAINTAINING DECENT COLD
AIR ADVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH
HIGHER THAN OUR NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES. FOR SOME HIGHER
LOCATIONS...HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY MAY ACTUALLY BE LOWER THAN THE
NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURE.
HEIGHTS ALOFT CONTINUE TO FALL WHICH RESULTS IN COOLING FROM THE
TOP DOWN. VERY IMPRESSIVE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING VIA MID LEVEL
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. STRONGEST LIFT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ACROSS
WESTERN SECTIONS OF CT/MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH...CENTERED AROUND THE
I-91 CORRIDOR. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS
THIS AREA ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MA/NH THAT RAIN MAY MIX
OR CHANGE TO SNOW AT TIMES WHEN PRECIPITATION INTENSITY IS
GREATEST. THIS WILL BE MOST COMMON AT ELEVATIONS GREATER THAN 1000
FT AS FREEZING LEVELS DROP TO THIS LEVEL. SURFACE AND GROUND
TEMPERATURES LIKELY TOO WARM FOR ANY ACCUMULATION BUT MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ON TREES/POWERLINES. DON/T EXPECT ANY IMPACT
JUST SOME DECORATIVE SNOW POSSIBLE HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A MID-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST TODAY...WHICH WILL
PLACE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WELL INTO THE CORE OF COLDER AIR ALOFT
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE POSSIBILITY FOR MIXED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGS BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
AS FOR ANY CONVECTION...HAVE REMOVED MENTION FOR NOW BUT WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO HEAR A FEW ISOLD RUMBLES AS PRECIP AND UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM START TO SHIFT NE.
ON SUNDAY...LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL END FROM S-N DURING THE DAY.
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN FOR MOST OF THE DAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS PICK
UP. EXPECTING GUSTS UP TO 30-35 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND WESTERN AREAS. WILL REMAIN COOL WITH HIGHS AGAIN 10-15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* IMPROVEMENTS ON MONDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPS THROUGH THE MID WEEK.
* WARM FRONT MID-WEEK WILL BRING AROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER.
* MUGGY AND WELL ABOVE AVG CONDITIONS RETURN BY THURS.
CONFIDENCE LEVEL/MODEL GUIDANCE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION FORECAST...MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON
EXACT TIMING. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE BY
END OF NEXT WEEK...HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS. MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS RUN SHOWING A UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS...WHILE A STRONG AMPLIFIED RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE EASTERN USA. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH HOW MUCH THE
HEIGHTS BUILD BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE HAVE LEANED WITH
WPC THINKING FOR THE FORECAST AND THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR DAYS 6 AND
7.
DETAILS...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EJECT EASTWARD AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
MIDWEST. THE SURFACE LOW WHICH BROUGHT RAIN AND COOL TEMPS WILL BE
WELL IN THE GULF OF MAINE ALLOWING FOR DRYING CONDITIONS AND SUNNY
SKIES. AM CONCERNED ABOUT SUN NIGHT TEMPS...MAY BE TO WARM AS
WINDS DECREASE AND SKIES CLEAR...FROST MAY BE A POSSIBILITY ESP IN
THE NW ZONES. OTHERWISE EXPECT A PLEASANT MEMORIAL DAY WITH TEMPS
REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S AND SUNNY SKIES. TUESDAY WILL BE
A REPEAT BUT WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE MID 70S THANKS TO A MORE
SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONET. COOLER ALONG THE COAST AS SEA BREEZES
DEVELOP.
WEDNESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GLIDE EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER A
FEW RIPPLES IN THE FLOW WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT OVER NEW ENGLAND.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY AND LASTING INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. CONVECTION PARAMETERS POINT TO THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT SO CONTINUED THE MENTIONING OF THUNDER.
TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...
ONCE THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
RETURN TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CANNOT RULE OUT A SPOT SHOWERS
SINCE THE REGION WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER MAIN ISSUE TO
WATCH IS THE MAX TEMPS...WHICH MAY REACH THE MID 80S. SOME MODELS
EVEN PUSH THE REGION INTO THE 90S. SINCE THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS AWAY
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODEST AND KEEP TEMPS INTO THE MID TO LOW 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO TONIGHT.
TODAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND PIVOTS INTO
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE
RAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH. NW
WINDS MAY GUSTS TO 25 KT. IFR CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST MA WITH MVFR
ELSEWHERE. TIMING OF PRECIPITATION...AND THE DECREASE OF
VISIBILITY...VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME EXACTLY. TAFS WERE MORE OF AN
OVERALL EXPECTATION OF CONDITIONS WITHIN SHOWERS. VISIBILITY
SHOULD BE BETTER OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS.
TONIGHT-SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH
VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM VFR TO MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA/FOG.
LOW PROB OF ISOLD TSTM TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF FROM S-N
DURING SUNDAY WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE SUNDAY.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.
WEDNESDAY...MODERATED CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. MAY SEE CLOUDS/SCT
SHOWERS MOVE IN AHEAD OF WARM FRONT WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY...LOW PRES TRACKS FROM NANTUCKET TO GULF OF MAINE. NW WINDS
UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LINGERING S SWELLS SOUTH WATERS OF
RI AND MA. SHOWERS REDUCE VSBY AS WELL.
TONIGHT-SUNDAY...SURFACE LOW WILL LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN
WATERS TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT SLOWLY NE SUNDAY. SEAS REMAINING
ABOVE 5 FT. W-NW WINDS WILL PICK UP...WITH GUSTS UP TO GALE FORCE
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO S AND E OF NANTUCKET. WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH. WIND
GUSTS ON MONDAY MAY REACH CLOSE TO 25KTS ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS. OTHERWISE GOOD BOATING WEATHER ON TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP
DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT. SEAS WILL BE ABOVE 5 FT.
A SCA MAY BE NEEDED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WHILE THERE MAY BE PERIODIC HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TODAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...NOT THINKING IT WILL BE
PERSISTENT ENOUGH TO RESULT IN FLOODING. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING CELLS THOUGH. NO HEADLINES PLANNED AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EAST COAST OF MA THIS WEEKEND...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES THIS WEEKEND. AT BOSTON...A HIGH TIDE OF
12.2 FT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AT 12:12 AM. ESTOFS INDICATING UP TO
0.7 FT SURGE WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. DESPITE THE LACK OF MUCH
WAVE ACTION COULD SEE SOME MINOR INUNDATION. AT THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS OF EASTERN MA. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY ESPECIALLY GIVEN A MARGINAL EVENT.
LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO REEVALUATE THIS RISK.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
SUNDAY FOR ANZ232>234-236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT SUNDAY
FOR ANZ230.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ251.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
000
FXUS61 KBOX 250703
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
303 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH THROUGH
TONIGHT. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY SUNDAY AS THIS LOW DEPARTS
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER MUCH NICER WEATHER ARRIVES FOR
MEMORIAL DAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING EVEN
WARMER TEMPERATURES BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
25/00Z MODELS HAVE COME INTO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THEIR
HANDLING OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES. AS SUCH...USED A GENERAL MODEL
COMPROMISE TO HANDLE THE TIMING.
OVERALL...EXPECTING A LOW PRESSURE OVER MASSACHUSETTS BAY TO STAY
NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY. THIS WILL GENERATE PERIODS OF SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AS WELL AS MAINTAINING DECENT COLD
AIR ADVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH
HIGHER THAN OUR NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES. FOR SOME HIGHER
LOCATIONS...HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY MAY ACTUALLY BE LOWER THAN THE
NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURE.
HEIGHTS ALOFT CONTINUE TO FALL WHICH RESULTS IN COOLING FROM THE
TOP DOWN. VERY IMPRESSIVE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING VIA MID LEVEL
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. STRONGEST LIFT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ACROSS
WESTERN SECTIONS OF CT/MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH...CENTERED AROUND THE
I-91 CORRIDOR. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS
THIS AREA ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MA/NH THAT RAIN MAY MIX
OR CHANGE TO SNOW AT TIMES WHEN PRECIPITATION INTENSITY IS
GREATEST. THIS WILL BE MOST COMMON AT ELEVATIONS GREATER THAN 1000
FT AS FREEZING LEVELS DROP TO THIS LEVEL. SURFACE AND GROUND
TEMPERATURES LIKELY TOO WARM FOR ANY ACCUMULATION BUT MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ON TREES/POWERLINES. DON/T EXPECT ANY IMPACT
JUST SOME DECORATIVE SNOW POSSIBLE HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A MID-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST TODAY...WHICH WILL
PLACE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WELL INTO THE CORE OF COLDER AIR ALOFT
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE POSSIBILITY FOR MIXED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGS BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
AS FOR ANY CONVECTION...HAVE REMOVED MENTION FOR NOW BUT WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO HEAR A FEW ISOLD RUMBLES AS PRECIP AND UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM START TO SHIFT NE.
ON SUNDAY...LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL END FROM S-N DURING THE DAY.
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN FOR MOST OF THE DAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS PICK
UP. EXPECTING GUSTS UP TO 30-35 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND WESTERN AREAS. WILL REMAIN COOL WITH HIGHS AGAIN 10-15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE LATE THIS WEEKEND...
KEEPING SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPERATURES INTO SUNDAY
* FAIR BUT COOL CONDITIONS FOR MEMORIAL DAY...WITH MODERATING
TEMPS THROUGH THE MID WEEK
* WARM FRONT BY END OF THE WEEK WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS APPEAR IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SLOW BUT
STEADY MOVEMENT OF H5 CUTOFF LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MARITIMES BY
MEMORIAL DAY. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EVOLVES OVER TIME AS CUTOFF LOW
REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN MARITIMES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...TENDING TO FLATTEN OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES WITH
BROAD HIGH PRES ACROSS THE SOUTH. WILL SEE A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS...THOUGH A WARM FRONT MAY APPROACH BY MID WEEK WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THEN...LOOKS LIKE SUMMER WARMTH
WILL PUSH IN BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
WENT ALONG WITH BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST...00Z ECMWF/12Z GFS AND
WPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PACKAGE...WHICH SHOWED GOOD CONTINUITY AND
CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS. NOTED THAT THE 00Z EC /AND
SINCE THEN...THE 12Z/ OP RUNS HAVE COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS
IN EJECTING THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE REGION FASTER THAN THEIR
PREVIOUS RUNS...AND BOTH ARE NEARLY IDENTICAL IN PUSHING SYSTEM
INTO MAINE AND THE MARITIMES LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO THE HOLIDAY.
DETAILS...
MONDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE HOLIDAY WEATHER IS SALVAGED AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS OUT OF EASTERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN QUEBEC. WILL STILL SEE
SOME GUSTY W-NW WINDS...UP TO 20-25 MPH...BUT IT WILL BE MILDER.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER NICE DAY ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRES
STARTS TO RECENTER OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. WINDS START TO BACK TO
SW BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER-MID 70S...THOUGH
ONLY IN THE 60S ALONG THE S COAST. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL SEE
SOME CLOUDS INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. HAVE BROUGHT IN
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR WED/WED NIGHT AND MAY EVEN SEE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AS WARM FRONT WORKS ACROSS.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MUCH WARMER AIR WORKS IN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
ANY LEFTOVER SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL PUSH OUT OF THE REGION DURING
THU...WITH MORE HUMIDITY WORKING IN AS WELL. EXPECT HIGHS BOTH
DAYS MAINLY IN THE 80S...EXCEPT COOLER ALONG THE S COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE INTO TONIGHT.
TODAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND PIVOTS INTO
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE
RAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH. NW
WINDS MAY GUSTS TO 25 KT. IFR CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST MA WITH MVFR
ELSEWHERE. TIMING OF PRECIPITATION...AND THE DECREASE OF
VISIBILITY...VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME EXACTLY. TAFS WERE MORE OF AN
OVERALL EXPECTATION OF CONDITIONS WITHIN SHOWERS. VISIBILITY
SHOULD BE BETTER OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS.
TONIGHT-SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH
VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM VFR TO MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA/FOG.
LOW PROB OF ISOLD TSTM TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF FROM S-N
DURING SUNDAY WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE SUNDAY.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MONDAY-TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS LATE
MON NIGHT-EARLY TUE MORNING.
WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. MAY SEE CLOUDS/SCT
SHOWERS MOVE IN AHEAD OF WARM FRONT WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY...LOW PRES TRACKS FROM NANTUCKET TO GULF OF MAINE. NW WINDS
UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LINGERING S SWELLS SOUTH WATERS OF
RI AND MA. SHOWERS REDUCE VSBY AS WELL.
TONIGHT-SUNDAY...SURFACE LOW WILL LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN
WATERS TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT SLOWLY NE SUNDAY. SEAS REMAINING
ABOVE 5 FT. W-NW WINDS WILL PICK UP...WITH GUSTS UP TO GALE FORCE
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO S AND E OF NANTUCKET. WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MONDAY...WINDS DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5 FT
ON THE OUTER WATERS.
TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT.
WEDNESDAY...S-SE WINDS MAY SEE SE WINDS PICK UP DURING THE DAY WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WHILE THERE MAY BE PERIODIC HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TODAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...NOT THINKING IT WILL BE
PERSISTENT ENOUGH TO RESULT IN FLOODING. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING CELLS THOUGH. NO HEADLINES PLANNED AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EAST COAST OF MA THIS WEEKEND...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES THIS WEEKEND. AT BOSTON...A HIGH TIDE OF
12.2 FT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AT 12:12 AM. ESTOFS INDICATING UP TO
0.7 FT SURGE WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. DESPITE THE LACK OF MUCH
WAVE ACTION COULD SEE SOME MINOR INUNDATION. AT THE TYPICALLY
PRONE LOCATIONS OF EASTERN MA. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY ESPECIALLY GIVEN A MARGINAL EVENT.
LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO REEVALUATE THIS RISK.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
ANZ235-237-254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-
237-250-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT
HYDROLOGY...BELK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BELK/NOCERA
000
FXUS61 KBOX 250255
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1055 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
EVENING WITH MUCH COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ON THIS FRONT...WITH SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY SUNDAY AS THE
LOW DEPARTS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER MUCH NICER WEATHER
ARRIVES MEMORIAL DAY MONDAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A WARM
FRONT WILL BRING EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
1045 PM UPDATE...
MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS WAS ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...CLOSER TO THE MID-LEVEL LOW. NO REAL INSTABILITY LEFT
WELL WEST OF A COLD FRONT LYING JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF MA.
SOME LIGHTNING WELL OFFSHORE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THERE
IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS
FRONT FOR A FEW MORE HOURS WHILE THERE IS STILL A LINGERING MID-
LEVEL JET.
PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKED PRETTY GOOD...BUT DID UPDATE THE GRIDS TO
BRING NEAR-TERM FORECAST IN LINE WITH OBSERVED TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ANOMALOUS UPPER PATTERN UNDERWAY WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE NEGATIVE
TROUGH EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER LONG ISLAND
TONIGHT...INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS NEAR NANTUCKET. THIS WILL RESULT
IN COMMA HEAD/TROWAL RAINS OVER NY/NJ AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TO
PIVOT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
THUS CATEGORICAL POPS FROM MET AND MAV LOOK REASONABLE. HEAVIEST
AND MOST WIDESPREAD RAINS WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS WESTERN CT/MA
INTO SOUTHWEST NH...THE I-91 CORRIDOR.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN
THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS FROM WEST TO EAST. WELL TEMPS WILL FALL
INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT...MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THERE IS ENOUGH BLYR WARMTH TO KEEP PTYPE ALL RAIN EVEN
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FALLING TEMPS WILL COMBINE WITH GUSTY NW WINDS TO PROVIDE A BIT OF A
WIND CHILL TONIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH SHOWERS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
WILL YIELD NASTY CONDITIONS FOR ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. THE ONLY
POSITIVE WILL BE TEMPORARY WARMTH AND HUMIDITY ACROSS EASTERN MA.
TEMPS IN THE L70S ALONG WITH DEW PTS IN THE MU60S ACROSS THIS AREA
HAS RESULTED IN SB CAPES OF AROUND 500 J/KG. DESPITE MODEST DEEP
LAYER SHEAR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF DEEP CONVECTION...JUST SOME HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN
MA/RI AND EASTERN CT.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION COMMA HEAD RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
BLOSSOM ACROSS NY/PA/NJ AND NYC WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PIVOT NE
INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY.
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO OOZE EASTWARD INTO EASTERN MA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT GUSTY WNW WINDS
WITH THE INITIAL SURGE OF COOL AIR...THEN RELAXING A BIT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SATURDAY...
NOT YOUR TYPICAL START TO MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WITH COASTAL LOW
OVER GULF OF MAINE AS MID LEVEL LOW DRIFTS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. HEIGHTS ALOFT CONTINUE TO FALL WHICH RESULTS IN COOLING
FROM TOP DOWN. VERY IMPRESSIVE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING VIA MID
LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. STRONGEST LIFT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF CT/MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH...I-91
CORRIDOR. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THIS AREA
ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MA/NH THAT RAIN MAY MIX OR CHANGE
TO SNOW AT TIMES WHEN PRECIP INTENSITY IS GREATEST. THIS WILL BE
MOST COMMON AT ELEVATIONS GREATER THAN 1KFT AS FREEZING LEVELS
DROP TO THIS LEVEL. SURFACE AND GROUND TEMPS LIKELY TOO WARM FOR
ANY ACCUMULATION BUT MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ON
TREES/POWERLINES. DON/T EXPECT ANY IMPACT JUST SOME DECORATIVE
SNOW POSSIBLE HIGHER TERRAIN.
ELSEWHERE SHOWERS SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD ALONG WITH CHILLY TEMPS IN
THE U40S TO L50S...BUT WILL FEEL MUCH COOLER WITH GUSTY WNW WIND.
EMBEDDED HEAVY SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE LATE THIS WEEKEND...
KEEPING SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPERATURES INTO SUNDAY
* FAIR BUT COOL CONDITIONS FOR MEMORIAL DAY...WITH MODERATING
TEMPS THROUGH THE MID WEEK
* WARM FRONT BY END OF THE WEEK WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS APPEAR IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SLOW BUT
STEADY MOVEMENT OF H5 CUTOFF LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MARITIMES BY
MEMORIAL DAY. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EVOLVES OVER TIME AS CUTOFF LOW
REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN MARITIMES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...TENDING TO FLATTEN OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES WITH
BROAD HIGH PRES ACROSS THE SOUTH. WILL SEE A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS...THOUGH A WARM FRONT MAY APPROACH BY MID WEEK WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THEN...LOOKS LIKE SUMMER WARMTH
WILL PUSH IN BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
WENT ALONG WITH BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST...00Z ECMWF/12Z GFS AND
WPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PACKAGE...WHICH SHOWED GOOD CONTINUITY AND
CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS. NOTED THAT THE 00Z EC /AND
SINCE THEN...THE 12Z/ OP RUNS HAVE COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS
IN EJECTING THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE REGION FASTER THAN THEIR
PREVIOUS RUNS...AND BOTH ARE NEARLY IDENTICAL IN PUSHING SYSTEM
INTO MAINE AND THE MARITIMES LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO THE HOLIDAY.
DETAILS...
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...AS H5 LOW MOVES ACROSS E MA SAT NIGHT...
THE NW FLOW BEHIND COMBINED WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BRING
MIGHTY CHILLY AIR INTO THE REGION ESPECIALLY ACROSS S NH/W MA.
WITH WRAPAROUND RAINFALL MOVES IN ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS...ALONG
WITH THIS COLDER AIR...WE HAVE MENTIONED THE POSSIBILITY OF /YES/
MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
MONADNOCKS/E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES POSSIBLY DOWN INTO THE
MOUNT WACHUSETT REGION OF N WORCESTER COUNTY SAT NIGHT.
GRANTED...GROUND HAS WARMED UP SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION...BUT COULD SEE SOME ON GRASSY AND SOME UNTREATED
SURFACES. LOWS WILL DROP TO THE MID-UPPER 30S EVEN AS FAR S OF
INTERIOR SE MA/N RI/NE MA...RUNNING 10 TO 15 DEGS BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS.
AS FOR ANY CONVECTION...HAVE REMOVED MENTION FOR NOW BUT WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO HEAR A FEW ISOLD RUMBLES AS PRECIP AND UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM START TO SHIFT NE.
ON SUNDAY...LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL END FROM S-N DURING THE DAY.
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN FOR MOST OF THE DAY AS NW WINDS PICK UP. EXPECT
GUSTS UP TO 30-35 MPH ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS.
WILL REMAIN COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60...AGAIN
10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR SUN NIGHT
AND IT WILL REMAIN RATHER CHILLY.
MONDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE HOLIDAY WEATHER IS SALVAGED AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS OUT OF EASTERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN QUEBEC. WILL STILL SEE
SOME GUSTY W-NW WINDS...UP TO 20-25 MPH...BUT IT WILL BE MILDER.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER NICE DAY ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRES
STARTS TO RECENTER OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. WINDS START TO BACK TO
SW BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER-MID 70S...THOUGH
ONLY IN THE 60S ALONG THE S COAST. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL SEE
SOME CLOUDS INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. HAVE BROUGHT IN
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR WED/WED NIGHT AND MAY EVEN SEE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AS WARM FRONT WORKS ACROSS.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MUCH WARMER AIR WORKS IN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
ANY LEFTOVER SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL PUSH OUT OF THE REGION DURING
THU...WITH MORE HUMIDITY WORKING IN AS WELL. EXPECT HIGHS BOTH
DAYS MAINLY IN THE 80S...EXCEPT COOLER ALONG THE S COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND SAT.
TONIGHT...COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF THE MASS E COAST AT 03Z WILL
STALL LATER TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT. EXPECTING
IFR CONDITIONS ALONG E COASTAL AREAS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
LOWERING TO AREAS OF MVFR AS SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM W-E AS UPPER
LEVEL REFLECTION MOVES SLOWLY INTO THE REGION.
SAT...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND PIVOTS INTO EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE RAIN
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH. NW
WINDS MAY GUSTS TO 25 KT. IFR CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST MA WITH MVFR
ELSEWHERE.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
LOWER TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR CIGS WITH VFR-MVFR VSBYS IN SCT
SHOWERS. SAT...SHOWERS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND WINDS INCREASE UP TO 25 KT.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CIGS AND SHOWERS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND VFR-MVFR VSBYS
MAINLY IN SHOWERS. WNW WINDS UP TO 25 KT EARLY TONIGHT AND
POSSIBLY UP TO 30 KT SAT WITH MVFR CONTINUING.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. UNSETTLED
PATTERN WITH VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM VFR TO MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
IN SHRA/FOG. LOW PROB OF ISOLD TSTM SAT NIGHT. PRECIP TAPERS OFF
FROM S-N DURING SUNDAY WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE SUNDAY
THOUGH VFR CIGS LINGER SUNDAY NIGHT. MAY SEE PATCHY MVFR-IFR VSBYS
IN PATCHY FOG SUN NIGHT.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS LATE
MON NIGHT-EARLY TUE MORNING.
WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. MAY SEE CLOUDS/SCT
SHOWERS MOVE IN AHEAD OF WARM FRONT WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TONIGHT...LARGE S SWELLS CONTINUE ON THE SOUTHERN RI AND MA
WATERS. OTHERWISE A SLOW WIND SHIFT TO WEST WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
WNW WINDS MAY GUSTS UP TO 20 KT AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS NEAR
NANTUCKET. SHOWERS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE MODERATE.
SAT...LOW PRES TRACKS FROM NANTUCKET TO GULF OF MAINE. NW WINDS UP
TO 25 KT POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LINGERING S SWELLS SOUTH WATERS OF RI
AND MA. SHOWERS REDUCE VSBY AS WELL. OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...SURFACE LOW WILL LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN
WATERS SAT NIGHT...THEN SHIFT SLOWLY NE SUN. SEAS REMAINING ABOVE
5 FT. W-NW WINDS WILL PICK UP...WITH GUSTS UP TO GALE FORCE MAINLY
ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO S AND E OF NANTUCKET. KEPT GALE WATCH
GOING THERE. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING SUN AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
MONDAY...WINDS DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5 FT
ON THE OUTER WATERS.
TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT.
WEDNESDAY...S-SE WINDS MAY SEE SE WINDS PICK UP DURING THE DAY WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DISCOUNTED THE GFS AS IT APPEARED AN OUTLIER WITH UP TO 4 INCHES
OF RAIN IN WESTERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH. MODEL CONSENSUS OF 12Z
NAM/ECMWF AND GEFS SUGGEST WIDESPREAD 0.75-1.00 INCH RAINFALL
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. POSSIBLY UP TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS I-91
CORRIDOR OF WESTERN CT/MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH GIVEN PROXIMITY TO
COMMA HEAD/TROWAL. GIVEN THIS IS SPREAD OUT INTO SUN MORNING RISK
OF FLOODING IS VERY LOW. THUS NO HEADLINES.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EAST COAST OF MA THIS WEEKEND...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES THIS WEEKEND. AT BOSTON...A HIGH TIDE OF
11.9 FT WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AT 11:21 PM AND 12.2 FT EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AT 12:12 AM. ESTOFS INDICATING UP TO 0.5 FT SURGE WHICH
SEEMS REASONABLE. DESPITE THE LACK OF MUCH WAVE ACTION COULD SEE
SOME MINOR INUNDATION ESPECIALLY WITH THE SAT NIGHT HIGH TIDE.
AGAIN VERY MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATION OF EASTERN MA...IE MORRISSEY BLVD IN DORCHESTER.
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
ESPECIALLY GIVEN A MARGINAL EVENT. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO
REEVALUATE THE RISK.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
ANZ235-237-254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
250-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...BELK/NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...BELK/NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...BELK/NOCERA/EVT
HYDROLOGY...NOCERA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NOCERA
000
FXUS61 KBOX 242357
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
757 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
EVENING WITH MUCH COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ON THIS FRONT...WITH SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY SUNDAY AS THE
LOW DEPARTS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER MUCH NICER WEATHER
ARRIVES MEMORIAL DAY MONDAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A WARM
FRONT WILL BRING EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
740 PM UPDATE...
FIRST AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS E MA...SOME WITH BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...HAS MOVED OFFSHORE EXCEPT FOR LINE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
NE MA/SE NH AT 23Z. EXPECT THIS TO PUSH NE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO. HOWEVER...ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS...SOME WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...WILL SLOWLY CROSS INTO THE CT VALLEY BY 03Z...THEN
CONTINUE TO MOVE E OVERNIGHT. NOTING SOME C/G LIGHTNING WELL OFF
THE COAST AND SHOULD STAY THERE...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR IN THE
OFF CHANCE THAT A COUPLE OF STRIKES GET CLOSE TO THE OUTER CAPE
AND NANTUCKET. IR SATELLITE IS SHOWING SOME COOLING OF THE CLOUD
TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF PRECIP ACROSS E NY/W NEW
ENGLAND...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS WELL IN CASE
PRECIP STARTS TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY. NOTED AROUND 0.05 TO 0.1
INCHES AT 22Z IN THAT AREA OF PRECIP.
PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKED PRETTY GOOD...BUT DID UPDATE THE GRIDS TO
BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT. TEMPS ACROSS E MA DID RISE A BIT HIGHER
THAN FORECAST...SO UPDATED THIS AS WELL.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ANOMALOUS UPPER PATTERN UNDERWAY WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE NEGATIVE
TROUGH EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER LONG ISLAND
TONIGHT...INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS NEAR NANTUCKET. THIS WILL RESULT
IN COMMA HEAD/TROWAL RAINS OVER NY/NJ AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TO
PIVOT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
THUS CATEGORICAL POPS FROM MET AND MAV LOOK REASONABLE. HEAVIEST
AND MOST WIDESPREAD RAINS WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS WESTERN CT/MA
INTO SOUTHWEST NH...THE I-91 CORRIDOR.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN
THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS FROM WEST TO EAST. WELL TEMPS WILL FALL
INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT...MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THERE IS ENOUGH BLYR WARMTH TO KEEP PTYPE ALL RAIN EVEN
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FALLING TEMPS WILL COMBINE WITH GUSTY NW WINDS TO PROVIDE A BIT OF A
WIND CHILL TONIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH SHOWERS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
WILL YIELD NASTY CONDITIONS FOR ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. THE ONLY
POSITIVE WILL BE TEMPORARY WARMTH AND HUMIDITY ACROSS EASTERN MA.
TEMPS IN THE L70S ALONG WITH DEW PTS IN THE MU60S ACROSS THIS AREA
HAS RESULTED IN SB CAPES OF AROUND 500 J/KG. DESPITE MODEST DEEP
LAYER SHEAR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF DEEP CONVECTION...JUST SOME HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN
MA/RI AND EASTERN CT.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION COMMA HEAD RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
BLOSSOM ACROSS NY/PA/NJ AND NYC WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PIVOT NE
INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY.
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO OOZE EASTWARD INTO EASTERN MA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT GUSTY WNW WINDS
WITH THE INITIAL SURGE OF COOL AIR...THEN RELAXING A BIT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SATURDAY...
NOT YOUR TYPICAL START TO MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WITH COASTAL LOW
OVER GULF OF MAINE AS MID LEVEL LOW DRIFTS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. HEIGHTS ALOFT CONTINUE TO FALL WHICH RESULTS IN COOLING
FROM TOP DOWN. VERY IMPRESSIVE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING VIA MID
LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. STRONGEST LIFT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF CT/MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH...I-91
CORRIDOR. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THIS AREA
ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MA/NH THAT RAIN MAY MIX OR CHANGE
TO SNOW AT TIMES WHEN PRECIP INTENSITY IS GREATEST. THIS WILL BE
MOST COMMON AT ELEVATIONS GREATER THAN 1KFT AS FREEZING LEVELS
DROP TO THIS LEVEL. SURFACE AND GROUND TEMPS LIKELY TOO WARM FOR
ANY ACCUMULATION BUT MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ON
TREES/POWERLINES. DON/T EXPECT ANY IMPACT JUST SOME DECORATIVE
SNOW POSSIBLE HIGHER TERRAIN.
ELSEWHERE SHOWERS SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD ALONG WITH CHILLY TEMPS IN
THE U40S TO L50S...BUT WILL FEEL MUCH COOLER WITH GUSTY WNW WIND.
EMBEDDED HEAVY SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE LATE THIS WEEKEND...
KEEPING SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPERATURES INTO SUNDAY
* FAIR BUT COOL CONDITIONS FOR MEMORIAL DAY...WITH MODERATING
TEMPS THROUGH THE MID WEEK
* WARM FRONT BY END OF THE WEEK WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS APPEAR IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SLOW BUT
STEADY MOVEMENT OF H5 CUTOFF LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MARITIMES BY
MEMORIAL DAY. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EVOLVES OVER TIME AS CUTOFF LOW
REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN MARITIMES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...TENDING TO FLATTEN OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES WITH
BROAD HIGH PRES ACROSS THE SOUTH. WILL SEE A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS... THOUGH A WARM FRONT MAY APPROACH BY MID WEEK WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THEN...LOOKS LIKE SUMMER WARMTH
WILL PUSH IN BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
WENT ALONG WITH BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST...00Z ECMWF/12Z GFS AND
WPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PACKAGE...WHICH SHOWED GOOD CONTINUITY AND
CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS. NOTED THAT THE 00Z EC /AND
SINCE THEN...THE 12Z/ OP RUNS HAVE COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS
IN EJECTING THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE REGION FASTER THAN THEIR
PREVIOUS RUNS...AND BOTH ARE NEARLY IDENTICAL IN PUSHING SYSTEM
INTO MAINE AND THE MARITIMES LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO THE HOLIDAY.
DETAILS...
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...AS H5 LOW MOVES ACROSS E MA SAT NIGHT...
THE NW FLOW BEHIND COMBINED WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BRING
MIGHTY CHILLY AIR INTO THE REGION ESPECIALLY ACROSS S NH/W MA.
WITH WRAPAROUND RAINFALL MOVES IN ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS...ALONG
WITH THIS COLDER AIR...WE HAVE MENTIONED THE POSSIBILITY OF /YES/
MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
MONADNOCKS/E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES POSSIBLY DOWN INTO THE
MOUNT WACHUSETT REGION OF N WORCESTER COUNTY SAT NIGHT.
GRANTED...GROUND HAS WARMED UP SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION... BUT COULD SEE SOME ON GRASSY AND SOME UNTREATED
SURFACES. LOWS WILL DROP TO THE MID-UPPER 30S EVEN AS FAR S OF
INTERIOR SE MA/N RI/NE MA...RUNNING 10 TO 15 DEGS BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS.
AS FOR ANY CONVECTION...HAVE REMOVED MENTION FOR NOW BUT WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO HEAR A FEW ISOLD RUMBLES AS PRECIP AND UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM START TO SHIFT NE.
ON SUNDAY...LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL END FROM S-N DURING THE DAY.
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN FOR MOST OF THE DAY AS NW WINDS PICK UP. EXPECT
GUSTS UP TO 30-35 MPH ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS.
WILL REMAIN COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60...AGAIN
10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR SUN NIGHT
AND IT WILL REMAIN RATHER CHILLY.
MONDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE HOLIDAY WEATHER IS SALVAGED AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS OUT OF EASTERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN QUEBEC. WILL STILL SEE
SOME GUSTY W-NW WINDS...UP TO 20-25 MPH...BUT IT WILL BE MILDER.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER NICE DAY ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRES
STARTS TO RECENTER OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. WINDS START TO BACK TO
SW BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER-MID 70S...THOUGH
ONLY IN THE 60S ALONG THE S COAST. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL SEE
SOME CLOUDS INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. HAVE BROUGHT IN
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR WED/WED NIGHT AND MAY EVEN SEE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AS WARM FRONT WORKS ACROSS.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MUCH WARMER AIR WORKS IN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
ANY LEFTOVER SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL PUSH OUT OF THE REGION DURING
THU...WITH MORE HUMIDITY WORKING IN AS WELL. EXPECT HIGHS BOTH
DAYS MAINLY IN THE 80S...EXCEPT COOLER ALONG THE S COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND SAT.
TONIGHT...COLD FRONT ALONG THE MASS E COAST AT 21Z WILL DRIFT
EVER SO SLOWLY OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFT TO N-NW.
EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS ALONG E COASTAL AREAS...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO AREAS OF MVFR AS SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM W-E
AS UPPER LEVEL REFLECTION MOVES SLOWLY INTO THE REGION.
SAT...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND PIVOTS INTO EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE RAIN
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH. NW
WINDS MAY GUSTS TO 25 KT. IFR CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST MA WITH MVFR
ELSEWHERE.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
LOWER TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR CIGS WITH VFR-MVFR VSBYS IN SCT
SHOWERS. SAT...SHOWERS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND WINDS INCREASE UP TO 25 KT.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW CIGS AND SHOWERS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND VFR-MVFR VSBYS
MAINLY IN SHOWERS. WNW WINDS UP TO 25 KT EARLY TONIGHT AND
POSSIBLY UP TO 30 KT SAT WITH MVFR CONTINUING.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. UNSETTLED
PATTERN WITH VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM VFR TO MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
IN SHRA/FOG. LOW PROB OF ISOLD TSTM SAT NIGHT. PRECIP TAPERS OFF
FROM S-N DURING SUNDAY WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE SUNDAY
THOUGH VFR CIGS LINGER SUNDAY NIGHT. MAY SEE PATCHY MVFR-IFR VSBYS
IN PATCHY FOG SUN NIGHT.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS LATE
MON NIGHT-EARLY TUE MORNING.
WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. MAY SEE CLOUDS/SCT
SHOWERS MOVE IN AHEAD OF WARM FRONT WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TONIGHT... LARGE S SWELLS CONTINUE ON THE SOUTHERN RI AND MA WATERS.
OTHERWISE A SLOW WIND SHIFT TO WEST WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WNW WINDS
MAY GUSTS UP TO 20 KT AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS NEAR NANTUCKET. SHOWERS
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MODERATE.
SAT...LOW PRES TRACKS FROM NANTUCKET TO GULF OF MAINE. NW WINDS UP
TO 25 KT POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LINGERING S SWELLS SOUTH WATERS OF RI
AND MA. SHOWERS REDUCE VSBY AS WELL. OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...SURFACE LOW WILL LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN
WATERS SAT NIGHT...THEN SHIFT SLOWLY NE SUN. SEAS REMAINING ABOVE
5 FT. W-NW WINDS WILL PICK UP...WITH GUSTS UP TO GALE FORCE MAINLY
ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO S AND E OF NANTUCKET. KEPT GALE WATCH
GOING THERE. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING SUN AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
MONDAY...WINDS DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5 FT
ON THE OUTER WATERS.
TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT.
WEDNESDAY...S-SE WINDS MAY SEE SE WINDS PICK UP DURING THE DAY WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DISCOUNTED THE GFS AS IT APPEARED AN OUTLIER WITH UP TO 4 INCHES
OF RAIN IN WESTERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH. MODEL CONSENSUS OF 12Z
NAM/ECMWF AND GEFS SUGGEST WIDESPREAD 0.75-1.00 INCH RAINFALL
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. POSSIBLY UP TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS I-91
CORRIDOR OF WESTERN CT/MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH GIVEN PROXIMITY TO
COMMA HEAD/TROWAL. GIVEN THIS IS SPREAD OUT INTO SUN MORNING RISK
OF FLOODING IS VERY LOW. THUS NO HEADLINES.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EAST COAST OF MA THIS WEEKEND...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES THIS WEEKEND. AT BOSTON...A HIGH TIDE OF
11.9 FT WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AT 11:21 PM AND 12.2 FT EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AT 12:12 AM. ESTOFS INDICATING UP TO 0.5 FT SURGE WHICH
SEEMS REASONABLE. DESPITE THE LACK OF MUCH WAVE ACTION COULD SEE
SOME MINOR INUNDATION ESPECIALLY WITH THE SAT NIGHT HIGH TIDE.
AGAIN VERY MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATION OF EASTERN MA...IE MORRISSEY BLVD IN DORCHESTER.
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
ESPECIALLY GIVEN A MARGINAL EVENT. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO
REEVALUATE THE RISK.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
ANZ235-237-254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
250-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/EVT
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT
HYDROLOGY...NOCERA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NOCERA
000
FXUS61 KBOX 242117
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
517 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
EVENING WITH MUCH COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ON THIS FRONT...WITH SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY SUNDAY AS THE
LOW DEPARTS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER MUCH NICER WEATHER
ARRIVES MEMORIAL DAY MONDAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A WARM
FRONT WILL BRING EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
430 PM UPDATE...
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS NW RI INTO METRO WEST BOSTON. NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
THUNDER BUT SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW HEAVY DOWNPOURS EARLY THIS
EVENING AS PWATS REMAIN AOA 1.4 INCHES ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA.
THESE SHOWERS SHOULD WEAKEN WITH SUNSET AND LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.
OTHERWISE ANOMALOUS PATTERN UNDERWAY WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE NEGATIVE
TROUGH EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER LONG ISLAND
TONIGHT...INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS NEAR NANTUCKET. THIS WILL RESULT IN
COMMA HEAD/TROWAL RAINS OVER NY/NJ AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TO PIVOT
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. THUS
CATEGORICAL POPS FROM MET AND MAV LOOK REASONABLE. HEAVIEST AND MOST
WIDESPREAD RAINS WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS WESTERN CT/MA INTO SOUTHWEST
NH...THE I-91 CORRIDOR.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN
THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS FROM WEST TO EAST. WELL TEMPS WILL FALL
INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT...MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THERE IS ENOUGH BLYR WARMTH TO KEEP PTYPE ALL RAIN EVEN
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FALLING TEMPS WILL COMBINE WITH GUSTY NW WINDS TO PROVIDE A BIT OF A
WIND CHILL TONIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH SHOWERS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
WILL YIELD NASTY CONDITIONS FOR ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. THE ONLY
POSITIVE WILL BE TEMPORARY WARMTH AND HUMIDITY ACROSS EASTERN MA.
TEMPS IN THE L70S ALONG WITH DEW PTS IN THE MU60S ACROSS THIS AREA
HAS RESULTED IN SB CAPES OF AROUND 500 J/KG. DESPITE MODEST DEEP
LAYER SHEAR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF DEEP CONVECTION...JUST SOME HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN
MA/RI AND EASTERN CT.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION COMMA HEAD RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
BLOSSOM ACROSS NY/PA/NJ AND NYC WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PIVOT NE
INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY.
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO OOZE EASTWARD INTO EASTERN MA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT GUSTY WNW WINDS
WITH THE INITIAL SURGE OF COOL AIR...THEN RELAXING A BIT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SATURDAY...
NOT YOUR TYPICAL START TO MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WITH COASTAL LOW
OVER GULF OF MAINE AS MID LEVEL LOW DRIFTS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. HEIGHTS ALOFT CONTINUE TO FALL WHICH RESULTS IN COOLING
FROM TOP DOWN. VERY IMPRESSIVE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING VIA MID
LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. STRONGEST LIFT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF CT/MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH...I-91
CORRIDOR. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THIS AREA
ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MA/NH THAT RAIN MAY MIX OR CHANGE
TO SNOW AT TIMES WHEN PRECIP INTENSITY IS GREATEST. THIS WILL BE
MOST COMMON AT ELEVATIONS GREATER THAN 1KFT AS FREEZING LEVELS
DROP TO THIS LEVEL. SURFACE AND GROUND TEMPS LIKELY TOO WARM FOR
ANY ACCUMULATION BUT MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ON
TREES/POWERLINES. DON/T EXPECT ANY IMPACT JUST SOME DECORATIVE
SNOW POSSIBLE HIGHER TERRAIN.
ELSEWHERE SHOWERS SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD ALONG WITH CHILLY TEMPS IN
THE U40S TO L50S...BUT WILL FEEL MUCH COOLER WITH GUSTY WNW WIND.
EMBEDDED HEAVY SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE LATE THIS WEEKEND...
KEEPING SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPERATURES INTO SUNDAY
* FAIR BUT COOL CONDITIONS FOR MEMORIAL DAY...WITH MODERATING
TEMPS THROUGH THE MID WEEK
* WARM FRONT BY END OF THE WEEK WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS APPEAR IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SLOW BUT
STEADY MOVEMENT OF H5 CUTOFF LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MARITIMES BY
MEMORIAL DAY. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EVOLVES OVER TIME AS CUTOFF LOW
REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN MARITIMES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...TENDING TO FLATTEN OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES WITH
BROAD HIGH PRES ACROSS THE SOUTH. WILL SEE A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS... THOUGH A WARM FRONT MAY APPROACH BY MID WEEK WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THEN...LOOKS LIKE SUMMER WARMTH
WILL PUSH IN BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
WENT ALONG WITH BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST...00Z ECMWF/12Z GFS AND
WPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PACKAGE...WHICH SHOWED GOOD CONTINUITY AND
CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS. NOTED THAT THE 00Z EC /AND
SINCE THEN...THE 12Z/ OP RUNS HAVE COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS
IN EJECTING THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE REGION FASTER THAN THEIR
PREVIOUS RUNS...AND BOTH ARE NEARLY IDENTICAL IN PUSHING SYSTEM
INTO MAINE AND THE MARITIMES LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO THE HOLIDAY.
DETAILS...
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...AS H5 LOW MOVES ACROSS E MA SAT NIGHT...
THE NW FLOW BEHIND COMBINED WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BRING
MIGHTY CHILLY AIR INTO THE REGION ESPECIALLY ACROSS S NH/W MA.
WITH WRAPAROUND RAINFALL MOVES IN ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS...ALONG
WITH THIS COLDER AIR...WE HAVE MENTIONED THE POSSIBILITY OF /YES/
MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
MONADNOCKS/E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES POSSIBLY DOWN INTO THE
MOUNT WACHUSETT REGION OF N WORCESTER COUNTY SAT NIGHT.
GRANTED...GROUND HAS WARMED UP SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION... BUT COULD SEE SOME ON GRASSY AND SOME UNTREATED
SURFACES. LOWS WILL DROP TO THE MID-UPPER 30S EVEN AS FAR S OF
INTERIOR SE MA/N RI/NE MA...RUNNING 10 TO 15 DEGS BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS.
AS FOR ANY CONVECTION...HAVE REMOVED MENTION FOR NOW BUT WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO HEAR A FEW ISOLD RUMBLES AS PRECIP AND UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM START TO SHIFT NE.
ON SUNDAY...LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL END FROM S-N DURING THE DAY.
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN FOR MOST OF THE DAY AS NW WINDS PICK UP. EXPECT
GUSTS UP TO 30-35 MPH ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS.
WILL REMAIN COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60...AGAIN
10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR SUN NIGHT
AND IT WILL REMAIN RATHER CHILLY.
MONDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE HOLIDAY WEATHER IS SALVAGED AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS OUT OF EASTERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN QUEBEC. WILL STILL SEE
SOME GUSTY W-NW WINDS...UP TO 20-25 MPH...BUT IT WILL BE MILDER.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER NICE DAY ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRES
STARTS TO RECENTER OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. WINDS START TO BACK TO
SW BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER-MID 70S...THOUGH
ONLY IN THE 60S ALONG THE S COAST. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL SEE
SOME CLOUDS INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. HAVE BROUGHT IN
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR WED/WED NIGHT AND MAY EVEN SEE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AS WARM FRONT WORKS ACROSS.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MUCH WARMER AIR WORKS IN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
ANY LEFTOVER SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL PUSH OUT OF THE REGION DURING
THU...WITH MORE HUMIDITY WORKING IN AS WELL. EXPECT HIGHS BOTH
DAYS MAINLY IN THE 80S...EXCEPT COOLER ALONG THE S COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND SAT.
THROUGH 00Z...
COLD FRONT AND WIND SHIFT FROM SSW TO WNW WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE
EASTWARD INTO EASTERN MA LATE TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED HEAVIER RAINS ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA. RISK OF TSTMS IS
VERY LOW. CIGS WERE AN EVEN BLEND OF METNAM AND NAM12 GUID WHILE
VSBYS WERE A 50/50 BLEND OF MET AND MAV GUID. IFR CONFINED TO
SOUTHEAST MA WITH MVFR ELSEWHERE.
AFTER 00Z...
COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN MA WILL DRIFT JUST OFFSHORE WITH ALL
TERMINALS HAVING A WIND SHIFT TO THE WNW. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. IFR CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST MA WITH MVFR ELSEWHERE.
SAT...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND PIVOTS INTO EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE RAIN
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH. NW
WINDS MAY GUSTS TO 25 KT. IFR CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST MA WITH MVFR
ELSEWHERE.
KBOS TERMINAL...WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO WEST-NORTHWEST BETWEEN
19Z-20Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY IN MVFR. SAT...SHOWERS BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WINDS INCREASE UP TO 25
KT.
KBDL TERMINAL...SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS. WNW WINDS
UP TO 25 KT TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY UP TO 30 KT SAT WITH MVFR
CONTINUING.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. UNSETTLED
PATTERN WITH VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM VFR TO MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
IN SHRA/FOG. LOW PROB OF ISOLD TSTM SAT NIGHT. PRECIP TAPERS OFF
FROM S-N DURING SUNDAY WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE SUNDAY
THOUGH VFR CIGS LINGER SUNDAY NIGHT. MAY SEE PATCHY MVFR-IFR VSBYS
IN PATCHY FOG SUN NIGHT.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS LATE
MON NIGHT-EARLY TUE MORNING.
WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. MAY SEE CLOUDS/SCT
SHOWERS MOVE IN AHEAD OF WARM FRONT WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TONIGHT... LARGE S SWELLS CONTINUE ON THE SOUTHERN RI AND MA WATERS.
OTHERWISE A SLOW WIND SHIFT TO WEST WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WNW WINDS
MAY GUSTS UP TO 20 KT AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS NEAR NANTUCKET. SHOWERS
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MODERATE.
SAT...LOW PRES TRACKS FROM NANTUCKET TO GULF OF MAINE. NW WINDS UP
TO 25 KT POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LINGERING S SWELLS SOUTH WATERS OF RI
AND MA. SHOWERS REDUCE VSBY AS WELL. OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...SURFACE LOW WILL LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN
WATERS SAT NIGHT...THEN SHIFT SLOWLY NE SUN. SEAS REMAINING ABOVE
5 FT. W-NW WINDS WILL PICK UP...WITH GUSTS UP TO GALE FORCE MAINLY
ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO S AND E OF NANTUCKET. KEPT GALE WATCH
GOING THERE. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING SUN AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
MONDAY...WINDS DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5 FT
ON THE OUTER WATERS.
TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT.
WEDNESDAY...S-SE WINDS MAY SEE SE WINDS PICK UP DURING THE DAY WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DISCOUNTED THE GFS AS IT APPEARED AN OUTLIER WITH UP TO 4 INCHES
OF RAIN IN WESTERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH. MODEL CONSENSUS OF 12Z
NAM/ECMWF AND GEFS SUGGEST WIDESPREAD 0.75-1.00 INCH RAINFALL
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. POSSIBLY UP TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS I-91
CORRIDOR OF WESTERN CT/MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH GIVEN PROXIMITY TO
COMMA HEAD/TROWAL. GIVEN THIS IS SPREAD OUT INTO SUN MORNING RISK
OF FLOODING IS VERY LOW. THUS NO HEADLINES.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EAST COAST OF MA THIS WEEKEND...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES THIS WEEKEND. AT BOSTON...A HIGH TIDE OF
11.9 FT WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AT 11:21 PM AND 12.2 FT EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AT 12:12 AM. ESTOFS INDICATING UP TO 0.5 FT SURGE WHICH
SEEMS REASONABLE. DESPITE THE LACK OF MUCH WAVE ACTION COULD SEE
SOME MINOR INUNDATION ESPECIALLY WITH THE SAT NIGHT HIGH TIDE.
AGAIN VERY MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATION OF EASTERN MA...IE MORRISSEY BLVD IN DORCHESTER.
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
ESPECIALLY GIVEN A MARGINAL EVENT. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO
REEVALUATE THE RISK.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR ANZ235-237-254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
250-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT
HYDROLOGY...NOCERA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NOCERA
000
FXUS61 KBOX 242053
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
450 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
EVENING WITH MUCH COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ON THIS FRONT...RESULTING SHOWERS TO LINGER ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY SUNDAY AS
THE LOW DEPARTS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER MUCH NICER
WEATHER ARRIVES MEMORIAL DAY MONDAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. DRY WEATHER
AND SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
430 PM UPDATE...
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
NW RI INTO METRO WEST BOSTON. NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER BUT
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW HEAVY DOWNPOURS EARLY THIS EVENING AS PWATS
REMAIN AOA 1.4 INCHES ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD
WEAKEN WITH SUNSET AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
OTHERWISE ANOMALOUS PATTERN UNDERWAY WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE NEGATIVE
TROUGH EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER LONG ISLAND
TONIGHT...INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS NEAR NANTUCKET. THIS WILL RESULT IN
COMMA HEAD/TROWAL RAINS OVER NY/NJ AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TO PIVOT
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. THUS
CATEGORICAL POPS FROM MET AND MAV LOOK REASONABLE. HEAVIEST AND MOST
WIDESPREAD RAINS WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS WESTERN CT/MA INTO SOUTHWEST
NH...THE I-91 CORRIDOR.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN
THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS FROM WEST TO EAST. WELL TEMPS WILL FALL
INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT...MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THERE IS ENOUGH BLYR WARMTH TO KEEP PTYPE ALL RAIN EVEN
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FALLING TEMPS WILL COMBINE WITH GUSTY NW WINDS TO PROVIDE A BIT OF A
WIND CHILL TONIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH SHOWERS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
WILL YIELD NASTY CONDITIONS FOR ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. THE ONLY
POSITIVE WILL BE TEMPORARY WARMTH AND HUMIDITY ACROSS EASTERN MA.
TEMPS IN THE L70S ALONG WITH DEW PTS IN THE MU60S ACROSS THIS AREA
HAS RESULTED IN SB CAPES OF AROUND 500 J/KG. DESPITE MODEST DEEP
LAYER SHEAR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF DEEP CONVECTION...JUST SOME HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN
MA/RI AND EASTERN CT.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION COMMA HEAD RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
BLOSSOM ACROSS NY/PA/NJ AND NYC WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PIVOT NE
INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY.
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO OOZE EASTWARD INTO EASTERN MA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT GUSTY WNW WINDS
WITH THE INITIAL SURGE OF COOL AIR...THEN RELAXING A BIT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SATURDAY...
NOT YOUR TYPICAL START TO MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WITH COASTAL LOW OVER
GULF OF MAINE AS MID LEVEL LOW DRIFTS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
HEIGHTS ALOFT CONTINUE TO FALL WHICH RESULTS IN COOLING FROM TOP
DOWN. VERY IMPRESSIVE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING VIA MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE. STRONGEST LIFT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ACROSS WESTERN
SECTIONS OF CT/MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH...I-91 CORRIDOR. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THIS AREA ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF MA/NH THAT RAIN MAY MIX OR CHANGE TO SNOW AT TIMES WHEN
PRECIP INTENSITY IS GREATEST. THIS WILL BE MOST COMMON AT ELEVATIONS
GREATER THAN 1KFT AS FREEZING LEVELS DROP TO THIS LEVEL. SURFACE AND
GROUND TEMPS LIKELY TOO WARM FOR ANY ACCUMULATION BUT MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ON TREES/POWERLINES. DON/T EXPECT ANY IMPACT
JUST SOME DECORATIVE SNOW POSSIBLE HIGHER TERRAIN.
ELSEWHERE SHOWERS SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD ALONG WITH CHILLY TEMPS IN
THE U40S TO L50S...BUT WILL FEEL MUCH COOLER WITH GUSTY WNW WIND.
EMBEDDED HEAVY SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPS FOR THE
WEEKEND.
* IMPROVEMENTS BEGIN ON MONDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPS THROUGH THE MID
WEEK.
* WARM FRONT BY END OF THE WEEK WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
CONFIDENCE LEVEL/MODEL GUIDANCE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE
OVERALL FORECAST. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SEEM TO GET ITS ACT TOGETHER
AND HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ITS
PHASING WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. APPEARS THAT THE 00Z GFS HAS
GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND IS SUPPORTED BY SEVERAL OTHER
MODELS...INCLUDING THE 00Z EC. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TO A
BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS AND GFS/EC FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION.
OVERALL HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE OF RAIN AND COOLER TEMPS FOR THIS
WEEKEND AND DRYING CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
TIMING OF PRECIP AND THUNDER POTENTIAL. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR
NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR MID WEEK.
APPEARS A WARM FRONT WILL TRY TO LIFT JUMPING TEMPS WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE...HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
DETAILS...
THE WEEKEND...
PRECIP/QPF...COLD AND WET HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE ONLY REGION WHICH MAY HAVE SOME HOPE IS
THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND PERHAPS EASTERN MASS...WHERE DRY AIR WILL TRY
TO PUNCH THROUGH. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH OVER THE REGION AND
PINWHEEL OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TIL SUNDAY BEFORE PUSHING
NORTHWARD. SURFACE LOW OVER CAPE COD CANAL WILL PUSH EASTWARD OF
THE NORTH SHORE. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE CAPE ON SATURDAY AS DRY AIR INTRUSION
WILL PUSH THROUGH AS LOW PRESSURE UNDERGOES CYCLOGENESIS. APPEARS
THAT A GOOD WRAP AROUND OF RAIN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CT VALLEY AND DROP OVER AN INCH TO PERHAPS 2
INCHES OF PRECIP FOR THE WEEKEND IN THIS REGION...MAY NEED TO
WATCH FOR POSSIBLE RIVER FLOODING AS THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL
INCHES ALREADY FALLEN OVER THE PAST 24 HRS...WITH MORE ON THE WAY.
SURFACE LOW WILL GET PUSHED MORE NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE...THIS WILL PUSH PRECIP FARTHER EAST AND NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY
AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT. MAY BE A
TAD SLOW ON TIMING OF PRECIP YET HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT
EXIT TIMING.
THUNDER...THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF THUNDER FOR SATURDAY AND
INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER INCLUDED AN ISOLATED CHANCE AS TOTAL TOTALS
REACH ABOVE 50 AND SURFACE LIS DO DROP TO NEAR 0. APPEARS THAT THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY THANKS TO THE DRY AIR ALLOWING FOR SOME DIURNAL HEATING
TO BREAK THROUGH. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANYTHING TO BE STRONG OR
SEVERE. HOWEVER WITH IT BEING A HOLIDAY WEEKEND WANTED TO FOCUS ON
THAT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE.
TEMPERATURES...AS UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...A COLD POOL WILL SET UP ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO DROP WELL
BELOW AVERAGE. EXPECT HIGHS TO STRUGGLE TO REACH INTO THE 60S ON
SATURDAY AND THE MID 60S ON SUNDAY. LOWS OVERNIGHT DO GET QUITE
CHILLY...IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
MONDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY FROM THE SOGGY COOL WEEKEND TO A
WARM...DRY MID-WEEK. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF SHORE
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE...ALLOWING FOR MIDWEST RIDGE TO BUILD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER AND HELP KEEP A DRY FORECAST
FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT A SPOT SHOWER OR
TWO...ESP IF SEA BREEZES DEVELOPS. TEMPS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
MID-WEEK...WITH UPPER 60S FOR MONDAY TO UPPER 70S BY WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY...
MOTHER NATURE IS TRYING TO MAKE UP FOR THE COLD/RAINY WEEKEND BY
BRING A STRONG WARM FRONT TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE WEEK.
THIS WARM FRONT WILL BRING MUGGY CONDITIONS AND A CHANCE OS
ISOLATED SHOWERS. HOWEVER MAIN THINK TO WATCH IS MAX TEMPS...WHICH
MAY REACH THE MID 80S. SOME MODELS EVEN PUSH THE REGION INTO THE
90S. SINCE THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...KEEP IN MIND THAT MOTHER
NATURE MAY CHANGE HER MIND.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND SAT.
THROUGH 00Z...
COLD FRONT AND WIND SHIFT FROM SSW TO WNW WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE
EASTWARD INTO EASTERN MA LATE TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED HEAVIER RAINS ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA. RISK OF TSTMS IS
VERY LOW. CIGS WERE AN EVEN BLEND OF METNAM AND NAM12 GUID WHILE
VSBYS WERE A 50/50 BLEND OF MET AND MAV GUID. IFR CONFINED TO
SOUTHEAST MA WITH MVFR ELSEWHERE.
AFTER 00Z...
COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN MA WILL DRIFT JUST OFFSHORE WITH ALL
TERMINALS HAVING A WIND SHIFT TO THE WNW. SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. IFR CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST MA WITH MVFR ELSEWHERE.
SAT...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND PIVOTS INTO EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE RAIN
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH. NW WINDS
MAY GUSTS TO 25 KT. IFR CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST MA WITH MVFR
ELSEWHERE.
KBOS TERMINAL...WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO WEST-NORTHWEST BETWEEN
19Z-20Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY IN MVFR. SAT...SHOWERS BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WINDS INCREASE UP TO 25
KT.
KBDL TERMINAL...SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS. WNW WINDS
UP TO 25 KT TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY UP TO 30 KT SAT WITH MVFR
CONTINUING.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. UNSETTLED
PATTERN WITH VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM VFR TO MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
IN SHRA/FOG. LOW PROB OF ISOLD TSTM SAT NIGHT. PRECIP TAPERS OFF
FROM S-N DURING SUNDAY WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE SUNDAY
THOUGH VFR CIGS LINGER SUNDAY NIGHT. MAY SEE PATCHY MVFR-IFR VSBYS
IN PATCHY FOG SUN NIGHT.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS LATE
MON NIGHT-EARLY TUE MORNING.
WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. MAY SEE CLOUDS/SCT
SHOWERS MOVE IN AHEAD OF WARM FRONT WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TONIGHT... LARGE S SWELLS CONTINUE ON THE SOUTHERN RI AND MA WATERS.
OTHERWISE A SLOW WIND SHIFT TO WEST WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WNW WINDS
MAY GUSTS UP TO 20 KT AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS NEAR NANTUCKET. SHOWERS
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MODERATE.
SAT...LOW PRES TRACKS FROM NANTUCKET TO GULF OF MAINE. NW WINDS UP
TO 25 KT POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LINGERING S SWELLS SOUTH WATERS OF RI
AND MA. SHOWERS REDUCE VSBY AS WELL. OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...SURFACE LOW WILL LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN
WATERS SAT NIGHT...THEN SHIFT SLOWLY NE SUN. SEAS REMAINING ABOVE
5 FT. W-NW WINDS WILL PICK UP...WITH GUSTS UP TO GALE FORCE MAINLY
ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO S AND E OF NANTUCKET. KEPT GALE WATCH
GOING THERE. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING SUN AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
MONDAY...WINDS DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5 FT
ON THE OUTER WATERS.
TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT.
WEDNESDAY...S-SE WINDS MAY SEE SE WINDS PICK UP DURING THE DAY WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DISCOUNTED THE GFS AS IT APPEARED AN OUTLIER WITH UP TO 4 INCHES OF
RAIN IN WESTERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH. MODEL CONSENSUS OF 12Z
NAM/ECMWF AND GEFS SUGGEST WIDESPREAD 0.75-1.00 INCH RAINFALL ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION. POSSIBLY UP TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS I-91 CORRIDOR OF
WESTERN CT/MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH GIVEN PROXIMITY TO COMMA
HEAD/TROWAL. GIVEN THIS IS SPREAD OUT INTO SUN MORNING RISK OF
FLOODING IS VERY LOW. THUS NO HEADLINES.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EAST COAST OF MA THIS WEEKEND...
HIGH ASTONOMICAL TIDES THIS WEEKEND. AT BOSTON...A HIGH TIDE OF
11.9FT WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AT 11:21 PM AND 12.2 FT EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AT 12:12 AM. ESTOFS INDICATING UP TO 0.5 FT SURGE WHICH
SEEMS REASONABLE. DESPITE THE LACK OF MUCH WAVE ACTION COULD SEE
SOME MINOR INUNDATION ESPECIALLY WITH THE SAT NIGHT HIGH TIDE. AGAIN
VERY MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATION
OF EASTERN MA...IE MORRISSEY BLVD IN DORCESTER. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY ESPECIALLY GIVEN A MARGINAL
EVENT. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO REEVALUATE THE RISK.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR ANZ235-237-254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
250-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT
HYDROLOGY...NOCERA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NOCERA
000
FXUS61 KBOX 242030
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
430 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH MUCH
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THIS
FRONT...CAUSING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MONDAY. DRY WEATHER
AND SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
230 PM UPDATE...
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
EASTERN CT/NW RI INTO METRO WEST BOSTON. TEMPS IN THE L70S ALONG
WITH DEW PTS IN THE MU60S ACROSS THIS AREA HAS RESULTED IN SB
CAPES OF AROUND 500 J/KG. DESPITE MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
DEEP CONVECTION...JUST SOME HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI AND
EASTERN CT.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION COMMA HEAD RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
BLOSSOM ACROSS NY/PA/NJ AND NYC WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PIVOT NE
INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY.
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO OOZE EASTWARD INTO EASTERN MA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT GUSTY WNW WINDS
WITH THE INITIAL SURGE OF COOL AIR...THEN RELAXING A BIT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
A DEVELOPING LOW-PRESSURE JUST EAST OF MA THIS EVENING IS NOT
EXPECTED TO MAKE MUCH PROGRESS AWAY FROM OUR REGION. HOWEVER...AS
THIS LOW DEVELOPS A DRY SLOT IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY CUT BACK ON
THE COVERAGE OF RAINFALL TOWARD THE EAST COAST. MAIN DEFORMATION
AND FRONTOGENESIS ZONES SHIFT INLAND AS WELL.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FORECAST. A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE
HANDLES THIS WELL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPS FOR THE
WEEKEND.
* IMPROVEMENTS BEGIN ON MONDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPS THROUGH THE MID
WEEK.
* WARM FRONT BY END OF THE WEEK WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
CONFIDENCE LEVEL/MODEL GUIDANCE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE
OVERALL FORECAST. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SEEM TO GET ITS ACT TOGETHER
AND HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ITS
PHASING WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. APPEARS THAT THE 00Z GFS HAS
GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND IS SUPPORTED BY SEVERAL OTHER
MODELS...INCLUDING THE 00Z EC. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TO A
BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS AND GFS/EC FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION.
OVERALL HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE OF RAIN AND COOLER TEMPS FOR THIS
WEEKEND AND DRYING CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
TIMING OF PRECIP AND THUNDER POTENTIAL. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR
NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR MID WEEK.
APPEARS A WARM FRONT WILL TRY TO LIFT JUMPING TEMPS WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE...HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
DETAILS...
THE WEEKEND...
PRECIP/QPF...COLD AND WET HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE ONLY REGION WHICH MAY HAVE SOME HOPE IS
THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND PERHAPS EASTERN MASS...WHERE DRY AIR WILL TRY
TO PUNCH THROUGH. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH OVER THE REGION AND
PINWHEEL OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TIL SUNDAY BEFORE PUSHING
NORTHWARD. SURFACE LOW OVER CAPE COD CANAL WILL PUSH EASTWARD OF
THE NORTH SHORE. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE CAPE ON SATURDAY AS DRY AIR INTRUSION
WILL PUSH THROUGH AS LOW PRESSURE UNDERGOES CYCLOGENESIS. APPEARS
THAT A GOOD WRAP AROUND OF RAIN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CT VALLEY AND DROP OVER AN INCH TO PERHAPS 2
INCHES OF PRECIP FOR THE WEEKEND IN THIS REGION...MAY NEED TO
WATCH FOR POSSIBLE RIVER FLOODING AS THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL
INCHES ALREADY FALLEN OVER THE PAST 24 HRS...WITH MORE ON THE WAY.
SURFACE LOW WILL GET PUSHED MORE NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE...THIS WILL PUSH PRECIP FARTHER EAST AND NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY
AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT. MAY BE A
TAD SLOW ON TIMING OF PRECIP YET HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT
EXIT TIMING.
THUNDER...THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF THUNDER FOR SATURDAY AND
INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER INCLUDED AN ISOLATED CHANCE AS TOTAL TOTALS
REACH ABOVE 50 AND SURFACE LIS DO DROP TO NEAR 0. APPEARS THAT THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY THANKS TO THE DRY AIR ALLOWING FOR SOME DIURNAL HEATING
TO BREAK THROUGH. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANYTHING TO BE STRONG OR
SEVERE. HOWEVER WITH IT BEING A HOLIDAY WEEKEND WANTED TO FOCUS ON
THAT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE.
TEMPERATURES...AS UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...A COLD POOL WILL SET UP ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO DROP WELL
BELOW AVERAGE. EXPECT HIGHS TO STRUGGLE TO REACH INTO THE 60S ON
SATURDAY AND THE MID 60S ON SUNDAY. LOWS OVERNIGHT DO GET QUITE
CHILLY...IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
MONDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY FROM THE SOGGY COOL WEEKEND TO A
WARM...DRY MID-WEEK. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF SHORE
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE...ALLOWING FOR MIDWEST RIDGE TO BUILD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER AND HELP KEEP A DRY FORECAST
FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT A SPOT SHOWER OR
TWO...ESP IF SEA BREEZES DEVELOPS. TEMPS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
MID-WEEK...WITH UPPER 60S FOR MONDAY TO UPPER 70S BY WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY...
MOTHER NATURE IS TRYING TO MAKE UP FOR THE COLD/RAINY WEEKEND BY
BRING A STRONG WARM FRONT TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE WEEK.
THIS WARM FRONT WILL BRING MUGGY CONDITIONS AND A CHANCE OS
ISOLATED SHOWERS. HOWEVER MAIN THINK TO WATCH IS MAX TEMPS...WHICH
MAY REACH THE MID 80S. SOME MODELS EVEN PUSH THE REGION INTO THE
90S. SINCE THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...KEEP IN MIND THAT MOTHER
NATURE MAY CHANGE HER MIND.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND SAT.
THROUGH 00Z...
COLD FRONT AND WIND SHIFT FROM SSW TO WNW WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE
EASTWARD INTO EASTERN MA LATE TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED HEAVIER RAINS ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA. RISK OF TSTMS IS
VERY LOW. CIGS WERE AN EVEN BLEND OF METNAM AND NAM12 GUID WHILE
VSBYS WERE A 50/50 BLEND OF MET AND MAV GUID. IFR CONFINED TO
SOUTHEAST MA WITH MVFR ELSEWHERE.
AFTER 00Z...
COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN MA WILL DRIFT JUST OFFSHORE WITH ALL
TERMINALS HAVING A WIND SHIFT TO THE WNW. SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. IFR CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST MA WITH MVFR ELSEWHERE.
SAT...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND PIVOTS INTO EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE RAIN
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH. NW WINDS
MAY GUSTS TO 25 KT. IFR CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST MA WITH MVFR
ELSEWHERE.
KBOS TERMINAL...WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO WEST-NORTHWEST BETWEEN
19Z-20Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY IN MVFR. SAT...SHOWERS BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WINDS INCREASE UP TO 25
KT.
KBDL TERMINAL...SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS. WNW WINDS
UP TO 25 KT TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY UP TO 30 KT SAT WITH MVFR
CONTINUING.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. UNSETTLED
PATTERN WITH VARIABLE CONDITIONS FROM VFR TO MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
IN SHRA/FOG. LOW PROB OF ISOLD TSTM SAT NIGHT. PRECIP TAPERS OFF
FROM S-N DURING SUNDAY WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE SUNDAY
THOUGH VFR CIGS LINGER SUNDAY NIGHT. MAY SEE PATCHY MVFR-IFR VSBYS
IN PATCHY FOG SUN NIGHT.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS LATE
MON NIGHT-EARLY TUE MORNING.
WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. MAY SEE CLOUDS/SCT
SHOWERS MOVE IN AHEAD OF WARM FRONT WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
11 AM UPDATE...
STRONG SSW WINDS BEGINNING TO PULL AWAY FROM EASTERN MA WATERS AT
LATE MORNING. LIGHTER SSW WINDS TO FOLLOW BUT THEN AN ABRUPT WIND
SHIFT TO THE WEST LATE TODAY FROM WEST TO EAST. AREAS OF DENSE FOG
WILL IMPACT THE RI AND SOUTHERN MA WATERS TODAY BUT THEN IMPROVE
WITH THE WIND SHIFT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE TODAY.
A LOW-LEVEL JET AND MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BRING NEAR 25
KT GUSTS ON THE WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION WILL LIMIT GUSTS...SO GALES NOT EXPECTED. PERSISTENT SW
FLOW WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER
TODAY AS THIS LOW-LEVEL JET DEPARTS. EXPECTING LOW VSBYS IN FOG
AND LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A LOW PRES AND COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY STALL ACROSS THE EASTERN NEAR-SHORE WATERS. WIND DIRECTIONS
WILL BE QUITE DIFFERENT DEPENDING UPON WHERE THIS FRONT SETS UP
EXACTLY. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...BEFORE
REINTENSIFYING FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THIS LOW PRESSURE. LOW
PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AREAS OF LOW VSBYS IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG. SEAS WILL REMAIN 5 FT OR HIGHER...MAINLY
ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...SURFACE LOW WILL LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN
WATERS SAT NIGHT...THEN SHIFT SLOWLY NE SUN. SEAS REMAINING ABOVE
5 FT. W-NW WINDS WILL PICK UP...WITH GUSTS UP TO GALE FORCE MAINLY
ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS TO S AND E OF NANTUCKET. KEPT GALE WATCH
GOING THERE. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING SUN AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
MONDAY...WINDS DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT. SEAS REMAIN AOA 5 FT
ON THE OUTER WATERS.
TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT.
WEDNESDAY...S-SE WINDS MAY SEE SE WINDS PICK UP DURING THE DAY WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EAST COAST OF MA THIS WEEKEND...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WITH A SURFACE LOW LINGERING JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND EAST COAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...EXPECTING GUSTY
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWEST WINDS ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIMES HOURS.
AT BOSTON...A HIGH TIDE OF 11.9FT WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AT 11:21 PM
AND 12.2 FT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AT 12:12 AM. EXPECTING LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS DURING TODAY/S DAYTIME HIGH TIDE...SO THIS IS LESS
OF A CONCERN. LOOKING AT THE SUNDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE...NORTHERLY
TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY HELP INCREASE THE SURGE ESPECIALLY FOR
CAPE COD BAY. RIGHT NOW ONLY EXPECTING MINOR SPLASHOVER ACROSS
NORTH-FACING BEACHES. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND UPDATE
WITH THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR ANZ235-237-254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
250-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NOCERA
000
FXUS61 KBOX 241846
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
246 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH MUCH
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THIS
FRONT...CAUSING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MONDAY. DRY WEATHER
AND SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
230 PM UPDATE...
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
EASTERN CT/NW RI INTO METRO WEST BOSTON. TEMPS IN THE L70S ALONG
WITH DEW PTS IN THE MU60S ACROSS THIS AREA HAS RESULTED IN SB
CAPES OF AROUND 500 J/KG. DESPITE MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
DEEP CONVECTION...JUST SOME HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI AND
EASTERN CT.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION COMMA HEAD RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
BLOSSOM ACROSS NY/PA/NJ AND NYC WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PIVOT NE
INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY.
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO OOZE EASTWARD INTO EASTERN MA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT GUSTY WNW WINDS
WITH THE INITIAL SURGE OF COOL AIR...THEN RELAXING A BIT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
A DEVELOPING LOW-PRESSURE JUST EAST OF MA THIS EVENING IS NOT
EXPECTED TO MAKE MUCH PROGRESS AWAY FROM OUR REGION. HOWEVER...AS
THIS LOW DEVELOPS A DRY SLOT IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY CUT BACK ON
THE COVERAGE OF RAINFALL TOWARD THE EAST COAST. MAIN DEFORMATION
AND FRONTOGENESIS ZONES SHIFT INLAND AS WELL.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FORECAST. A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE
HANDLES THIS WELL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPS FOR THE
WEEKEND.
* IMPROVEMENTS BEGIN ON MONDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPS THROUGH THE MID
WEEK.
* WARM FRONT BY END OF THE WEEK WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.
CONFIDENCE LEVEL/MODEL GUIDANCE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE
OVERALL FORECAST. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SEEM TO GET ITS ACT TOGETHER
AND HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ITS
PHASING WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. APPEARS THAT THE 00Z GFS HAS
GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND IS SUPPORTED BY SEVERAL OTHER
MODELS...INCLUDING THE 00Z EC. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TO A
BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS AND GFS/EC FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION.
OVERALL HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE OF RAIN AND COOLER TEMPS FOR THIS
WEEKEND AND DRYING CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
TIMING OF PRECIP AND THUNDER POTENTIAL. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR
NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR MID WEEK.
APPEARS A WARM FRONT WILL TRY TO LIFT JUMPING TEMPS WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE...HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
DETAILS...
THE WEEKEND...
PRECIP/QPF...COLD AND WET HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE ONLY REGION WHICH MAY HAVE SOME HOPE IS
THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND PERHAPS EASTERN MASS...WHERE DRY AIR WILL TRY
TO PUNCH THROUGH. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH OVER THE REGION AND
PINWHEEL OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TIL SUNDAY BEFORE PUSHING
NORTHWARD. SURFACE LOW OVER CAPE COD CANAL WILL PUSH EASTWARD OF
THE NORTH SHORE. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE CAPE ON SATURDAY AS DRY AIR INTRUSION
WILL PUSH THROUGH AS LOW PRESSURE UNDERGOES CYCLOGENESIS. APPEARS
THAT A GOOD WRAP AROUND OF RAIN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CT VALLEY AND DROP OVER AN INCH TO PERHAPS 2
INCHES OF PRECIP FOR THE WEEKEND IN THIS REGION...MAY NEED TO
WATCH FOR POSSIBLE RIVER FLOODING AS THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL
INCHES ALREADY FALLEN OVER THE PAST 24 HRS...WITH MORE ON THE WAY.
SURFACE LOW WILL GET PUSHED MORE NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE...THIS WILL PUSH PRECIP FARTHER EAST AND NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY
AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT. MAY BE A
TAD SLOW ON TIMING OF PRECIP YET HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT
EXIT TIMING.
THUNDER...THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF THUNDER FOR SATURDAY AND
INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER INCLUDED AN ISOLATED CHANCE AS TOTAL TOTALS
REACH ABOVE 50 AND SURFACE LIS DO DROP TO NEAR 0. APPEARS THAT THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY THANKS TO THE DRY AIR ALLOWING FOR SOME DIURNAL HEATING
TO BREAK THROUGH. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANYTHING TO BE STRONG OR
SEVERE. HOWEVER WITH IT BEING A HOLIDAY WEEKEND WANTED TO FOCUS ON
THAT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE.
TEMPERATURES...AS UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...A COLD POOL WILL SET UP ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO DROP WELL
BELOW AVERAGE. EXPECT HIGHS TO STRUGGLE TO REACH INTO THE 60S ON
SATURDAY AND THE MID 60S ON SUNDAY. LOWS OVERNIGHT DO GET QUITE
CHILLY...IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
MONDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY FROM THE SOGGY COOL WEEKEND TO A
WARM...DRY MID-WEEK. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF SHORE
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE...ALLOWING FOR MIDWEST RIDGE TO BUILD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER AND HELP KEEP A DRY FORECAST
FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT A SPOT SHOWER OR
TWO...ESP IF SEA BREEZES DEVELOPS. TEMPS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
MID-WEEK...WITH UPPER 60S FOR MONDAY TO UPPER 70S BY WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY...
MOTHER NATURE IS TRYING TO MAKE UP FOR THE COLD/RAINY WEEKEND BY
BRING A STRONG WARM FRONT TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE WEEK.
THIS WARM FRONT WILL BRING MUGGY CONDITIONS AND A CHANCE OS
ISOLATED SHOWERS. HOWEVER MAIN THINK TO WATCH IS MAX TEMPS...WHICH
MAY REACH THE MID 80S. SOME MODELS EVEN PUSH THE REGION INTO THE
90S. SINCE THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...KEEP IN MIND THAT MOTHER
NATURE MAY CHANGE HER MIND.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT AND SAT.
THROUGH 00Z...
COLD FRONT AND WIND SHIFT FROM SSW TO WNW WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE
EASTWARD INTO EASTERN MA LATE TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED HEAVIER RAINS ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA. RISK OF TSTMS IS
VERY LOW. CIGS WERE AN EVEN BLEND OF METNAM AND NAM12 GUID WHILE
VSBYS WERE A 50/50 BLEND OF MET AND MAV GUID. IFR CONFINED TO
SOUTHEAST MA WITH MVFR ELSEWHERE.
AFTER 00Z...
COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN MA WILL DRIFT JUST OFFSHORE WITH ALL
TERMINALS HAVING A WIND SHIFT TO THE WNW. SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. IFR CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST MA WITH MVFR ELSEWHERE.
SAT...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND PIVOTS INTO EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE RAIN
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH. NW WINDS
MAY GUSTS TO 25 KT. IFR CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST MA WITH MVFR
ELSEWHERE.
KBOS TERMINAL...WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO WEST-NORTHWEST BETWEEN
19Z-20Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY IN MVFR. SAT...SHOWERS BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WINDS INCREASE UP TO 25
KT.
KBDL TERMINAL...SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS. WNW WINDS
UP TO 25 KT TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY UP TO 30 KT SAT WITH MVFR
CONTINUING.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE WEEKEND...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN
WITH VARIABILITY BETWEEN VFR CONDITIONS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
SHRA/TSRA/FOG. IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
11 AM UPDATE...
STRONG SSW WINDS BEGINNING TO PULL AWAY FROM EASTERN MA WATERS AT
LATE MORNING. LIGHTER SSW WINDS TO FOLLOW BUT THEN AN ABURPT WIND
SHIFT TO THE WEST LATE TODAY FROM WEST TO EAST. AREAS OF DENSE FOG
WILL IMPACT THE RI AND SOUTHERN MA WATERS TODAY BUT THEN IMPROVE
WITH THE WIND SHIFT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE TODAY.
A LOW-LEVEL JET AND MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BRING NEAR 25
KT GUSTS ON THE WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION WILL LIMIT GUSTS...SO GALES NOT EXPECTED. PERSISTENT SW
FLOW WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER
TODAY AS THIS LOW-LEVEL JET DEPARTS. EXPECTING LOW VSBYS IN FOG
AND LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A LOW PRES AND COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY STALL ACROSS THE EASTERN NEAR-SHORE WATERS. WIND DIRECTIONS
WILL BE QUITE DIFFERENT DEPENDING UPON WHERE THIS FRONT SETS UP
EXACTLY. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...BEFORE
REINTENSIFYING FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THIS LOW PRESSURE. LOW
PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AREAS OF LOW VSBYS IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG. SEAS WILL REMAIN 5 FT OR HIGHER...MAINLY
ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE WEEKEND...UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL LINGER ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS
SURFACE LOW STAYS OVER THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS. EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN
HIGH FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND. SMALL CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED T-
STORMS...BUT RAIN/SHOWERS WILL LOWER VSBYS ESP ON SATURDAY. GUSTY NW
BRING GUSTS CLOSE TO GALE FORCE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...HAVE HOISTED A
GALE WATCH. STRONG SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EAST COAST OF MA THIS WEEKEND...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WITH A SURFACE LOW LINGERING JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND EAST COAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...EXPECTING GUSTY
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWEST WINDS ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIMES HOURS.
AT BOSTON...A HIGH TIDE OF 11.9FT WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AT 11:21 PM
AND 12.2 FT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AT 12:12 AM. EXPECTING LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS DURING TODAY/S DAYTIME HIGH TIDE...SO THIS IS LESS
OF A CONCERN. LOOKING AT THE SUNDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE...NORTHERLY
TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY HELP INCREASE THE SURGE ESPECIALLY FOR
CAPE COD BAY. RIGHT NOW ONLY EXPECTING MINOR SPLASHOVER ACROSS
NORTH-FACING BEACHES. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND UPDATE
WITH THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ231-232-
235-237-250-254>256.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
ANZ235-237-255-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/NOCERA/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RMT
000
FXUS61 KBOX 241511
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1111 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH MUCH
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THIS
FRONT...CAUSING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MONDAY. DRY WEATHER
AND SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
11 AM UPDATE...
COLD FRONT WITH SHARP TEMP GRADIENT MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. 67 AT SPRINGFIELD IN WARM SECTOR BUT
ONLY 48 AT PITTSFIELD ON COLD SIDE OF BOUNDARY. EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF FRONT WILL BE SLOW AS MID/UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES
AND GOES NEG TILTED AND EVENTUALLY EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER
PA/NJ LATE TODAY. THIS WILL ALSO SHIFT DEEP MOISTURE PLUME/WARM
CONVEYOR BELT RAINS OFFSHORE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. THEN THE
RAIN FOCUS SHIFTS TO NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS COMMA
HEAD/TROWAL PRECIP BLOSSOMS.
DROPPED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS THE RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING APPEARS VERY LOW AS DEEP MOISTURE PLUME MOVES
OFFSHORE AND STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT REMAINS WELL WEST ACROSS
NY STATE. STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS BUT NO FLOODING CONCERNS TODAY.LIKEWISE REMOVED
MENTIONED OF THUNDERSTORM AS INSTABILITY ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
REMAINS VERY WEAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
A DEVELOPING LOW-PRESSURE JUST EAST OF MA THIS EVENING IS NOT
EXPECTED TO MAKE MUCH PROGRESS AWAY FROM OUR REGION. HOWEVER...AS
THIS LOW DEVELOPS A DRY SLOT IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY CUT BACK ON
THE COVERAGE OF RAINFALL TOWARD THE EAST COAST. MAIN DEFORMATION
AND FRONTOGENESIS ZONES SHIFT INLAND AS WELL.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FORECAST. A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE
HANDLES THIS WELL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPS FOR THE
WEEKEND.
* IMPROVEMENTS BEGIN ON MONDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPS THROUGH THE MID
WEEK.
* WARM FRONT BY END OF THE WEEK WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.
CONFIDENCE LEVEL/MODEL GUIDANCE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE
OVERALL FORECAST. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SEEM TO GET ITS ACT TOGETHER
AND HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ITS
PHASING WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. APPEARS THAT THE 00Z GFS HAS
GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND IS SUPPORTED BY SEVERAL OTHER
MODELS...INCLUDING THE 00Z EC. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TO A
BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS AND GFS/EC FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION.
OVERALL HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE OF RAIN AND COOLER TEMPS FOR THIS
WEEKEND AND DRYING CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
TIMING OF PRECIP AND THUNDER POTENTIAL. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR
NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR MID WEEK.
APPEARS A WARM FRONT WILL TRY TO LIFT JUMPING TEMPS WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE...HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
DETAILS...
THE WEEKEND...
PRECIP/QPF...COLD AND WET HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE ONLY REGION WHICH MAY HAVE SOME HOPE IS
THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND PERHAPS EASTERN MASS...WHERE DRY AIR WILL TRY
TO PUNCH THROUGH. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH OVER THE REGION AND
PINWHEEL OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TIL SUNDAY BEFORE PUSHING
NORTHWARD. SURFACE LOW OVER CAPE COD CANAL WILL PUSH EASTWARD OF
THE NORTH SHORE. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE CAPE ON SATURDAY AS DRY AIR INTRUSION
WILL PUSH THROUGH AS LOW PRESSURE UNDERGOES CYCLOGENESIS. APPEARS
THAT A GOOD WRAP AROUND OF RAIN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CT VALLEY AND DROP OVER AN INCH TO PERHAPS 2
INCHES OF PRECIP FOR THE WEEKEND IN THIS REGION...MAY NEED TO
WATCH FOR POSSIBLE RIVER FLOODING AS THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL
INCHES ALREADY FALLEN OVER THE PAST 24 HRS...WITH MORE ON THE WAY.
SURFACE LOW WILL GET PUSHED MORE NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE...THIS WILL PUSH PRECIP FARTHER EAST AND NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY
AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT. MAY BE A
TAD SLOW ON TIMING OF PRECIP YET HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT
EXIT TIMING.
THUNDER...THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF THUNDER FOR SATURDAY AND
INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER INCLUDED AN ISOLATED CHANCE AS TOTAL TOTALS
REACH ABOVE 50 AND SURFACE LIS DO DROP TO NEAR 0. APPEARS THAT THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY THANKS TO THE DRY AIR ALLOWING FOR SOME DIURNAL HEATING
TO BREAK THROUGH. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANYTHING TO BE STRONG OR
SEVERE. HOWEVER WITH IT BEING A HOLIDAY WEEKEND WANTED TO FOCUS ON
THAT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE.
TEMPERATURES...AS UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...A COLD POOL WILL SET UP ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO DROP WELL
BELOW AVERAGE. EXPECT HIGHS TO STRUGGLE TO REACH INTO THE 60S ON
SATURDAY AND THE MID 60S ON SUNDAY. LOWS OVERNIGHT DO GET QUITE
CHILLY...IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
MONDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY FROM THE SOGGY COOL WEEKEND TO A
WARM...DRY MID-WEEK. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF SHORE
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE...ALLOWING FOR MIDWEST RIDGE TO BUILD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER AND HELP KEEP A DRY FORECAST
FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT A SPOT SHOWER OR
TWO...ESP IF SEA BREEZES DEVELOPS. TEMPS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
MID-WEEK...WITH UPPER 60S FOR MONDAY TO UPPER 70S BY WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY...
MOTHER NATURE IS TRYING TO MAKE UP FOR THE COLD/RAINY WEEKEND BY
BRING A STRONG WARM FRONT TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE WEEK.
THIS WARM FRONT WILL BRING MUGGY CONDITIONS AND A CHANCE OS
ISOLATED SHOWERS. HOWEVER MAIN THINK TO WATCH IS MAX TEMPS...WHICH
MAY REACH THE MID 80S. SOME MODELS EVEN PUSH THE REGION INTO THE
90S. SINCE THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...KEEP IN MIND THAT MOTHER
NATURE MAY CHANGE HER MIND.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
11 AM UPDATE...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO
MARCH EASTWARD TODAY. NEVERTHELESS AN ABURPT WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH
TO WEST WITH ITS PASSAGE. HEAVIER SHOWERS CONFINED TO EASTERN MA
TODAY. IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN FOG WILL LINGER ACROSS COASTAL RI AND
SOUTHEAST MUCH OF TODAY UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE.
OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TODAY...WINDS SHIFT TO W-NW ACROSS WESTERN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN LATE TODAY ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS.
TONIGHT...EXPECTING SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VSBYS OVERNIGHT...
PARTICULARLY INLAND. NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS THOUGH.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...MAINLY DUE TO TIMING ISSUES.
SCATTERED TSRA POSSIBLE. LLWS LIKELY EAST OF THE TERMINAL FOR
APPROACHES OVER THE OCEAN.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE WEEKEND...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN
WITH VARIABILITY BETWEEN VFR CONDITIONS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
SHRA/TSRA/FOG. IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
11 AM UPDATE...
STRONG SSW WINDS BEGINNING TO PULL AWAY FROM EASTERN MA WATERS AT
LATE MORNING. LIGHTER SSW WINDS TO FOLLOW BUT THEN AN ABURPT WIND
SHIFT TO THE WEST LATE TODAY FROM WEST TO EAST. AREAS OF DENSE FOG
WILL IMPACT THE RI AND SOUTHERN MA WATERS TODAY BUT THEN IMPROVE
WITH THE WIND SHIFT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE TODAY.
A LOW-LEVEL JET AND MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BRING NEAR 25
KT GUSTS ON THE WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION WILL LIMIT GUSTS...SO GALES NOT EXPECTED. PERSISTENT SW
FLOW WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER
TODAY AS THIS LOW-LEVEL JET DEPARTS. EXPECTING LOW VSBYS IN FOG
AND LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A LOW PRES AND COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY STALL ACROSS THE EASTERN NEAR-SHORE WATERS. WIND DIRECTIONS
WILL BE QUITE DIFFERENT DEPENDING UPON WHERE THIS FRONT SETS UP
EXACTLY. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...BEFORE
REINTENSIFYING FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THIS LOW PRESSURE. LOW
PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AREAS OF LOW VSBYS IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG. SEAS WILL REMAIN 5 FT OR HIGHER...MAINLY
ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE WEEKEND...UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL LINGER ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS
SURFACE LOW STAYS OVER THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS. EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN
HIGH FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND. SMALL CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED T-
STORMS...BUT RAIN/SHOWERS WILL LOWER VSBYS ESP ON SATURDAY. GUSTY NW
BRING GUSTS CLOSE TO GALE FORCE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...HAVE HOISTED A
GALE WATCH. STRONG SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EAST COAST OF MA THIS WEEKEND...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WITH A SURFACE LOW LINGERING JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND EAST COAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...EXPECTING GUSTY
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWEST WINDS ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIMES HOURS.
AT BOSTON...A HIGH TIDE OF 11.9FT WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AT 11:21 PM
AND 12.2 FT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AT 12:12 AM. EXPECTING LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS DURING TODAY/S DAYTIME HIGH TIDE...SO THIS IS LESS
OF A CONCERN. LOOKING AT THE SUNDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE...NORTHERLY
TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY HELP INCREASE THE SURGE ESPECIALLY FOR
CAPE COD BAY. RIGHT NOW ONLY EXPECTING MINOR SPLASHOVER ACROSS
NORTH-FACING BEACHES. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND UPDATE
WITH THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ231-232-
235-237-250-254>256.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
ANZ235-237-255-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/NOCERA/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/NOCERA/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RMT
000
FXUS61 KBOX 241119
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
719 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY. A LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THIS FRONT...CAUSING THE ENTIRE SYSTEM
TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND COOLER CONDITIONS...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
SOME OF THE RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE MONDAY. DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
730 AM UPDATE...
HAVE CONTINUED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS AS
GUSTS ARE SHOWERS ARE STILL OVER THIS REGION AND WITH THE STRONG
LLJ RIGHT OVER HEAD...SOME MIXING MAY OCCUR. SAME REASON TO KEEP
THE SHORT-FUSE GALE WARNING FOR THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. RIP
CURRENT RISK STILL SEEMS ON TRACK AS WE ARE HEADING INTO THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...DID CONTINUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE HIGH RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS FOR SOME EXPOSED SOUTH-FACING BEACHES. HAVE LET
THE FLOOD WATCH GO FOR AREAS WEST AND SOUTH OF THE THE I-95
COORIDOR. ALTHOUGH SHOME SHOWERS ARE PASSING THROUGH...BELIEVE
THERE MAY BE A BIGGER THREAT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS HEAVY SHOWERS
FORM ALONG THE FRONT...AND THE THREAT OF CONVECTION EXISTS.
OTHERWISE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK THIS MORNING...HAVE
MADE SOME MINOR UPDATES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CURRENT PREFERENCE IS FOR A BLEND OF THE 24/00Z NAM AND 24/00Z
GFS FOR THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE VARIOUS SYNOPTIC FEATURES
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE GFS SOLUTION WAS SLIGHTLY FASTER TO MOVE
THE UPPER LEVEL COMPONENTS OF THIS SYSTEM AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THAN THE NAM. HOWEVER...THERE ARE DETAILS IN THE NAM
SOLUTION WHICH WE FELT SHOULD NOT BE IGNORED...MAINLY THE BANDING
AND INTENSITY OF THE RAINFALL WHICH ARE TOUGHER FOR THE GFS TO
RESOLVE.
EXPECTING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NY STATE AND NORTHEAST PA
TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO THIS
MORNING. THIS FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE COAST
BEFORE STALLING THIS EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT.
THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF LIFT FOR THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
ALREADY IN PLACE TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IS WEAK THIS MORNING...HOWEVER THE LOW-
LEVEL JET MAY BE ENOUGH OF A FOCUS TO PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN FOR THAT WOULD BE RI AND EASTERN
MA.
TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET MOS GUIDANCE...WITH
SOME LOCAL BIAS-CORRECTED GUIDANCE THROWN IN FOR GOOD MEASURE.
NOT EXPECTING A LARGE DIURNAL RANGE TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
A DEVELOPING LOW-PRESSURE JUST EAST OF MA THIS EVENING IS NOT
EXPECTED TO MAKE MUCH PROGRESS AWAY FROM OUR REGION. HOWEVER...AS
THIS LOW DEVELOPS A DRY SLOT IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY CUT BACK ON
THE COVERAGE OF RAINFALL TOWARD THE EAST COAST. MAIN DEFORMATION
AND FRONTOGENESIS ZONES SHIFT INLAND AS WELL.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FORECAST. A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE
HANDLES THIS WELL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPS FOR THE
WEEKEND.
* IMPROVEMENTS BEGIN ON MONDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPS THROUGH THE MID
WEEK.
* WARM FRONT BY END OF THE WEEK WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.
CONFIDENCE LEVEL/MODEL GUIDANCE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE
OVERALL FORECAST. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SEEM TO GET ITS ACT TOGETHER
AND HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ITS
PHASING WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. APPEARS THAT THE 00Z GFS HAS
GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND IS SUPPORTED BY SEVERAL OTHER
MODELS...INCLUDING THE 00Z EC. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TO A
BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS AND GFS/EC FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION.
OVERALL HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE OF RAIN AND COOLER TEMPS FOR THIS
WEEKEND AND DRYING CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
TIMING OF PRECIP AND THUNDER POTENTIAL. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR
NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR MID WEEK.
APPEARS A WARM FRONT WILL TRY TO LIFT JUMPING TEMPS WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE...HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
DETAILS...
THE WEEKEND...
PRECIP/QPF...COLD AND WET HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE ONLY REGION WHICH MAY HAVE SOME HOPE IS
THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND PERHAPS EASTERN MASS...WHERE DRY AIR WILL TRY
TO PUNCH THROUGH. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH OVER THE REGION AND
PINWHEEL OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TIL SUNDAY BEFORE PUSHING
NORTHWARD. SURFACE LOW OVER CAPE COD CANAL WILL PUSH EASTWARD OF
THE NORTH SHORE. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE CAPE ON SATURDAY AS DRY AIR INTRUSION
WILL PUSH THROUGH AS LOW PRESSURE UNDERGOES CYCLOGENESIS. APPEARS
THAT A GOOD WRAP AROUND OF RAIN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CT VALLEY AND DROP OVER AN INCH TO PERHAPS 2
INCHES OF PRECIP FOR THE WEEKEND IN THIS REGION...MAY NEED TO
WATCH FOR POSSIBLE RIVER FLOODING AS THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL
INCHES ALREADY FALLEN OVER THE PAST 24 HRS...WITH MORE ON THE WAY.
SURFACE LOW WILL GET PUSHED MORE NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE...THIS WILL PUSH PRECIP FARTHER EAST AND NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY
AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT. MAY BE A
TAD SLOW ON TIMING OF PRECIP YET HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT
EXIT TIMING.
THUNDER...THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF THUNDER FOR SATURDAY AND
INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER INCLUDED AN ISOLATED CHANCE AS TOTAL TOTALS
REACH ABOVE 50 AND SURFACE LIS DO DROP TO NEAR 0. APPEARS THAT THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY THANKS TO THE DRY AIR ALLOWING FOR SOME DIURNAL HEATING
TO BREAK THROUGH. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANYTHING TO BE STRONG OR
SEVERE. HOWEVER WITH IT BEING A HOLIDAY WEEKEND WANTED TO FOCUS ON
THAT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE.
TEMPERATURES...AS UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...A COLD POOL WILL SET UP ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO DROP WELL
BELOW AVERAGE. EXPECT HIGHS TO STRUGGLE TO REACH INTO THE 60S ON
SATURDAY AND THE MID 60S ON SUNDAY. LOWS OVERNIGHT DO GET QUITE
CHILLY...IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
MONDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY FROM THE SOGGY COOL WEEKEND TO A
WARM...DRY MID-WEEK. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF SHORE
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE...ALLOWING FOR MIDWEST RIDGE TO BUILD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER AND HELP KEEP A DRY FORECAST
FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT A SPOT SHOWER OR
TWO...ESP IF SEA BREEZES DEVELOPS. TEMPS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
MID-WEEK...WITH UPPER 60S FOR MONDAY TO UPPER 70S BY WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY...
MOTHER NATURE IS TRYING TO MAKE UP FOR THE COLD/RAINY WEEKEND BY
BRING A STRONG WARM FRONT TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE WEEK.
THIS WARM FRONT WILL BRING MUGGY CONDITIONS AND A CHANCE OS
ISOLATED SHOWERS. HOWEVER MAIN THINK TO WATCH IS MAX TEMPS...WHICH
MAY REACH THE MID 80S. SOME MODELS EVEN PUSH THE REGION INTO THE
90S. SINCE THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...KEEP IN MIND THAT MOTHER
NATURE MAY CHANGE HER MIND.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TODAY...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS SHIFT
TO W-NW ACROSS WESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN LATE TODAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...MAINLY THIS
MORNING. LLWS LIKELY ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS THROUGH MIDDAY.
TONIGHT...EXPECTING SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VSBYS OVERNIGHT...
PARTICULARLY INLAND. NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS THOUGH.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...MAINLY DUE TO TIMING ISSUES.
SCATTERED TSRA POSSIBLE. LLWS LIKELY EAST OF THE TERMINAL FOR
APPROACHES OVER THE OCEAN.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE WEEKEND...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN
WITH VARIABILITY BETWEEN VFR CONDITIONS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
SHRA/TSRA/FOG. IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE TODAY.
A LOW-LEVEL JET AND MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BRING NEAR 25
KT GUSTS ON THE WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION WILL LIMIT GUSTS...SO GALES NOT EXPECTED. PERSISTENT SW
FLOW WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER
TODAY AS THIS LOW-LEVEL JET DEPARTS. EXPECTING LOW VSBYS IN FOG
AND LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A LOW PRES AND COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY STALL ACROSS THE EASTERN NEAR-SHORE WATERS. WIND DIRECTIONS
WILL BE QUITE DIFFERENT DEPENDING UPON WHERE THIS FRONT SETS UP
EXACTLY. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...BEFORE
REINTENSIFYING FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THIS LOW PRESSURE. LOW
PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AREAS OF LOW VSBYS IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG. SEAS WILL REMAIN 5 FT OR HIGHER...MAINLY
ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE WEEKEND...UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL LINGER ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS
SURFACE LOW STAYS OVER THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS. EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN
HIGH FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND. SMALL CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED T-
STORMS...BUT RAIN/SHOWERS WILL LOWER VSBYS ESP ON SATURDAY. GUSTY NW
BRING GUSTS CLOSE TO GALE FORCE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...HAVE HOISTED A
GALE WATCH. STRONG SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
BASED ON RECENT RADAR DATA...WE ARE CONTEMPLATING CANCELING THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WEST OF THE BOSTON METRO AREA AND SOUTHEAST MA.
PRECIPITATION IS MUCH MORE BROKEN THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE
CURRENT THINKING IS THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WOULD
ALSO BE CLOSER TO BETTER ORGANIZING SHEAR. THE NEXT SHIFT WILL
HAVE TO REEVALUATE THIS POTENTIAL.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EAST COAST OF MA THIS WEEKEND...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WITH A SURFACE LOW LINGERING JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND EAST COAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...EXPECTING GUSTY
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWEST WINDS ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIMES HOURS.
AT BOSTON...A HIGH TIDE OF 11.9FT WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AT 11:21 PM
AND 12.2 FT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AT 12:12 AM. EXPECTING LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS DURING TODAY/S DAYTIME HIGH TIDE...SO THIS IS LESS
OF A CONCERN. LOOKING AT THE SUNDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE...NORTHERLY
TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY HELP INCREASE THE SURGE ESPECIALLY FOR
CAPE COD BAY. RIGHT NOW ONLY EXPECTING MINOR SPLASHOVER ACROSS
NORTH-FACING BEACHES. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND UPDATE
WITH THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MAZ013-015>021.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ022>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR RIZ005-007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ231>234-250-
251-254-255.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
ANZ235-237-255-256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
000
FXUS61 KBOX 241029
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
629 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY. A LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THIS FRONT...CAUSING THE ENTIRE SYSTEM
TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND COOLER CONDITIONS...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
SOME OF THE RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE MONDAY. DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
6 AM UPDATE...
MADE LOTS OF CHANGES RECENTLY BASED ON RECENT TRENDS. WIND
ADVISORY ISSUED FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AS WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET ARE BUSTING THROUGH THE INVERSION WITHIN
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. THIS WAS ALSO THE REASON FOR THE SHORT-FUSE
GALE WARNING FOR THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. FINALLY...
REEVALUATED THE RIP CURRENT RISK FOR TODAY. SINCE WE ARE HEADING
INTO THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...DID HIGHLIGHT THE HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS FOR SOME EXPOSED SOUTH-FACING BEACHES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CURRENT PREFERENCE IS FOR A BLEND OF THE 24/00Z NAM AND 24/00Z
GFS FOR THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE VARIOUS SYNOPTIC FEATURES
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE GFS SOLUTION WAS SLIGHTLY FASTER TO MOVE
THE UPPER LEVEL COMPONENTS OF THIS SYSTEM AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THAN THE NAM. HOWEVER...THERE ARE DETAILS IN THE NAM
SOLUTION WHICH WE FELT SHOULD NOT BE IGNORED...MAINLY THE BANDING
AND INTENSITY OF THE RAINFALL WHICH ARE TOUGHER FOR THE GFS TO
RESOLVE.
EXPECTING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NY STATE AND NORTHEAST PA
TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO THIS
MORNING. THIS FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE COAST
BEFORE STALLING THIS EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT.
THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF LIFT FOR THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
ALREADY IN PLACE TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IS WEAK THIS MORNING...HOWEVER THE LOW-
LEVEL JET MAY BE ENOUGH OF A FOCUS TO PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN FOR THAT WOULD BE RI AND EASTERN
MA.
TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET MOS GUIDANCE...WITH
SOME LOCAL BIAS-CORRECTED GUIDANCE THROWN IN FOR GOOD MEASURE.
NOT EXPECTING A LARGE DIURNAL RANGE TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
A DEVELOPING LOW-PRESSURE JUST EAST OF MA THIS EVENING IS NOT
EXPECTED TO MAKE MUCH PROGRESS AWAY FROM OUR REGION. HOWEVER...AS
THIS LOW DEVELOPS A DRY SLOT IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY CUT BACK ON
THE COVERAGE OF RAINFALL TOWARD THE EAST COAST. MAIN DEFORMATION
AND FRONTOGENESIS ZONES SHIFT INLAND AS WELL.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FORECAST. A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE
HANDLES THIS WELL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPS FOR THE
WEEKEND.
* IMPROVEMENTS BEGIN ON MONDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPS THROUGH THE MID
WEEK.
* WARM FRONT BY END OF THE WEEK WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.
CONFIDENCE LEVEL/MODEL GUIDANCE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE
OVERALL FORECAST. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SEEM TO GET ITS ACT TOGETHER
AND HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ITS
PHASING WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. APPEARS THAT THE 00Z GFS HAS
GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND IS SUPPORTED BY SEVERAL OTHER
MODELS...INCLUDING THE 00Z EC. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TO A
BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS AND GFS/EC FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION.
OVERALL HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE OF RAIN AND COOLER TEMPS FOR THIS
WEEKEND AND DRYING CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
TIMING OF PRECIP AND THUNDER POTENTIAL. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR
NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR MID WEEK.
APPEARS A WARM FRONT WILL TRY TO LIFT JUMPING TEMPS WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE...HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
DETAILS...
THE WEEKEND...
PRECIP/QPF...COLD AND WET HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE ONLY REGION WHICH MAY HAVE SOME HOPE IS
THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND PERHAPS EASTERN MASS...WHERE DRY AIR WILL TRY
TO PUNCH THROUGH. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH OVER THE REGION AND
PINWHEEL OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TIL SUNDAY BEFORE PUSHING
NORTHWARD. SURFACE LOW OVER CAPE COD CANAL WILL PUSH EASTWARD OF
THE NORTH SHORE. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE CAPE ON SATURDAY AS DRY AIR INTRUSION
WILL PUSH THROUGH AS LOW PRESSURE UNDERGOES CYCLOGENESIS. APPEARS
THAT A GOOD WRAP AROUND OF RAIN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CT VALLEY AND DROP OVER AN INCH TO PERHAPS 2
INCHES OF PRECIP FOR THE WEEKEND IN THIS REGION...MAY NEED TO
WATCH FOR POSSIBLE RIVER FLOODING AS THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL
INCHES ALREADY FALLEN OVER THE PAST 24 HRS...WITH MORE ON THE WAY.
SURFACE LOW WILL GET PUSHED MORE NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE...THIS WILL PUSH PRECIP FARTHER EAST AND NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY
AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT. MAY BE A
TAD SLOW ON TIMING OF PRECIP YET HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT
EXIT TIMING.
THUNDER...THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF THUNDER FOR SATURDAY AND
INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER INCLUDED AN ISOLATED CHANCE AS TOTAL TOTALS
REACH ABOVE 50 AND SURFACE LIS DO DROP TO NEAR 0. APPEARS THAT THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY THANKS TO THE DRY AIR ALLOWING FOR SOME DIURNAL HEATING
TO BREAK THROUGH. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANYTHING TO BE STRONG OR
SEVERE. HOWEVER WITH IT BEING A HOLIDAY WEEKEND WANTED TO FOCUS ON
THAT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE.
TEMPERATURES...AS UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...A COLD POOL WILL SET UP ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO DROP WELL
BELOW AVERAGE. EXPECT HIGHS TO STRUGGLE TO REACH INTO THE 60S ON
SATURDAY AND THE MID 60S ON SUNDAY. LOWS OVERNIGHT DO GET QUITE
CHILLY...IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
MONDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY FROM THE SOGGY COOL WEEKEND TO A
WARM...DRY MID-WEEK. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF SHORE
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE...ALLOWING FOR MIDWEST RIDGE TO BUILD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER AND HELP KEEP A DRY FORECAST
FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT A SPOT SHOWER OR
TWO...ESP IF SEA BREEZES DEVELOPS. TEMPS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
MID-WEEK...WITH UPPER 60S FOR MONDAY TO UPPER 70S BY WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY...
MOTHER NATURE IS TRYING TO MAKE UP FOR THE COLD/RAINY WEEKEND BY
BRING A STRONG WARM FRONT TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE WEEK.
THIS WARM FRONT WILL BRING MUGGY CONDITIONS AND A CHANCE OS
ISOLATED SHOWERS. HOWEVER MAIN THINK TO WATCH IS MAX TEMPS...WHICH
MAY REACH THE MID 80S. SOME MODELS EVEN PUSH THE REGION INTO THE
90S. SINCE THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...KEEP IN MIND THAT MOTHER
NATURE MAY CHANGE HER MIND.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THROUGH 12Z...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE EAST COAST. LLWS POSSIBLE TOWARD
THE OUTER CAPE AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS AS A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-
LEVEL JET NUDGES ITS WAY NORTH.
TODAY...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS SHIFT
TO W-NW ACROSS WESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN LATE TODAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...MAINLY THIS
MORNING. LLWS LIKELY ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS THROUGH MIDDAY.
TONIGHT...EXPECTING SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VSBYS OVERNIGHT...
PARTICULARLY INLAND. NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS THOUGH.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...MAINLY DUE TO TIMING ISSUES.
SCATTERED TSRA POSSIBLE. LLWS LIKELY EAST OF THE TERMINAL FOR
APPROACHES OVER THE OCEAN.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE WEEKEND...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN
WITH VARIABILITY BETWEEN VFR CONDITIONS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
SHRA/TSRA/FOG. IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE TODAY.
A LOW-LEVEL JET AND MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BRING NEAR 25
KT GUSTS ON THE WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION WILL LIMIT GUSTS...SO GALES NOT EXPECTED. PERSISTENT SW
FLOW WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER
TODAY AS THIS LOW-LEVEL JET DEPARTS. EXPECTING LOW VSBYS IN FOG
AND LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A LOW PRES AND COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY STALL ACROSS THE EASTERN NEAR-SHORE WATERS. WIND DIRECTIONS
WILL BE QUITE DIFFERENT DEPENDING UPON WHERE THIS FRONT SETS UP
EXACTLY. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...BEFORE
REINTENSIFYING FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THIS LOW PRESSURE. LOW
PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AREAS OF LOW VSBYS IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG. SEAS WILL REMAIN 5 FT OR HIGHER...MAINLY
ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE WEEKEND...UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL LINGER ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS
SURFACE LOW STAYS OVER THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS. EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN
HIGH FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND. SMALL CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED T-
STORMS...BUT RAIN/SHOWERS WILL LOWER VSBYS ESP ON SATURDAY. GUSTY NW
BRING GUSTS CLOSE TO GALE FORCE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...HAVE HOISTED A
GALE WATCH. STRONG SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
BASED ON RECENT RADAR DATA...WE ARE CONTEMPLATING CANCELING THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WEST OF THE BOSTON METRO AREA AND SOUTHEAST MA.
PRECIPITATION IS MUCH MORE BROKEN THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE
CURRENT THINKING IS THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WOULD
ALSO BE CLOSER TO BETTER ORGANIZING SHEAR. THE NEXT SHIFT WILL
HAVE TO REEVALUATE THIS POTENTIAL.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EAST COAST OF MA THIS WEEKEND...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WITH A SURFACE LOW LINGERING JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND EAST COAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...EXPECTING GUSTY
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWEST WINDS ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIMES HOURS.
AT BOSTON...A HIGH TIDE OF 11.9FT WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AT 11:21 PM
AND 12.2 FT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AT 12:12 AM. EXPECTING LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS DURING TODAY/S DAYTIME HIGH TIDE...SO THIS IS LESS
OF A CONCERN. LOOKING AT THE SUNDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE...NORTHERLY
TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY HELP INCREASE THE SURGE ESPECIALLY FOR
CAPE COD BAY. RIGHT NOW ONLY EXPECTING MINOR SPLASHOVER ACROSS
NORTH-FACING BEACHES. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND UPDATE
WITH THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MAZ002>004-008>013-
015>021-026.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ022>024.
NH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NHZ011-015.
RI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ231>234-250-
251-254-255.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
ANZ235-237-255-256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN
HYDROLOGY...BELK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF
000
FXUS61 KBOX 240819
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
419 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY. A LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THIS FRONT...CAUSING THE ENTIRE SYSTEM
TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND COOLER CONDITIONS...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
SOME OF THE RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE MONDAY. DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
2 AM UPDATE...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS EXPANDED FARTHER EAST AS RAINFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET HAS STARTED TO TRACK FARTHER WESTWARD.
THIS WOULD PUT MANY OF THE MORE URBANIZED AREAS ACROSS RI AND
EASTERN MA MORE AT RISK.
CURRENT PREFERENCE IS FOR A BLEND OF THE 24/00Z NAM AND 24/00Z
GFS FOR THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE VARIOUS SYNOPTIC FEATURES
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE GFS SOLUTION WAS SLIGHTLY FASTER TO MOVE
THE UPPER LEVEL COMPONENTS OF THIS SYSTEM AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THAN THE NAM. HOWEVER...THERE ARE DETAILS IN THE NAM
SOLUTION WHICH WE FELT SHOULD NOT BE IGNORED...MAINLY THE BANDING
AND INTENSITY OF THE RAINFALL WHICH ARE TOUGHER FOR THE GFS TO
RESOLVE.
EXPECTING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NY STATE AND NORTHEAST PA
TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO THIS
MORNING. THIS FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE COAST
BEFORE STALLING THIS EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT.
THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF LIFT FOR THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
ALREADY IN PLACE TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IS WEAK THIS MORNING...HOWEVER THE LOW-
LEVEL JET MAY BE ENOUGH OF A FOCUS TO PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN FOR THAT WOULD BE RI AND EASTERN
MA.
TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET MOS GUIDANCE...WITH
SOME LOCAL BIAS-CORRECTED GUIDANCE THROWN IN FOR GOOD MEASURE.
NOT EXPECTING A LARGE DIURNAL RANGE TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
A DEVELOPING LOW-PRESSURE JUST EAST OF MA THIS EVENING IS NOT
EXPECTED TO MAKE MUCH PROGRESS AWAY FROM OUR REGION. HOWEVER...AS
THIS LOW DEVELOPS A DRY SLOT IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY CUT BACK ON
THE COVERAGE OF RAINFALL TOWARD THE EAST COAST. MAIN DEFORMATION
AND FRONTOGENESIS ZONES SHIFT INLAND AS WELL.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FORECAST. A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE
HANDLES THIS WELL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPS FOR THE
WEEKEND.
* IMPROVEMENTS BEGIN ON MONDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPS THROUGH THE MID
WEEK.
* WARM FRONT BY END OF THE WEEK WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.
CONFIDENCE LEVEL/MODEL GUIDANCE... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE
OVERALL FORECAST. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SEEM TO GET ITS ACT TOGETHER
AND HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ITS
PHASING WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. APPEARS THAT THE 00Z GFS HAS
GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND IS SUPPORTED BY SEVERAL OTHER
MODELS...INCLUDING THE 00Z EC. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TO A BLEND
OF THE NAM AND GFS AND GFS/EC FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION. OVERALL HAVE
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF RAIN AND COOLER TEMPS FOR THIS WEEKEND AND DRYING
CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF PRECIP AND
THUNDER POTENTIAL. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR NEXT WEEK...WITH DRY
WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR MID WEEK. APPEARS A WARM FRONT WILL
TRY TO LIFT JUMPING TEMPS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...HAVE MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.
DETAILS...
THE WEEKEND...
PRECIP/QPF...
COLD AND WET HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE ONLY REGION WHICH MAY HAVE SOME HOPE IS THE
CAPE/ISLANDS AND PERHAPS EASTERN MASS...WHERE DRY AIR WILL TRY TO
PUNCH THROUGH. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH OVER THE REGION AND
PINWHEEL OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TIL SUNDAY BEFORE PUSHING
NORTHWARD. SURFACE LOW OVER CAPE COD CANAL WILL PUSH EASTWARD OF
THE NORTH SHORE. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE CAPE ON SATURDAY AS DRY AIR INTRUSION
WILL PUSH THROUGH AS LOW PRESSURE UNDERGOES CYCLOGENESIS. APPEARS
THAT A GOOD WRAP AROUND OF RAIN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CT VALLEY AND DROP OVER AN INCH TO PERHAPS 2
INCHES OF PRECIP FOR THE WEEKEND IN THIS REGION...MAY NEED TO
WATCH FOR POSSIBLE RIVER FLOODING AS THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL
INCHES ALREADY FALLEN OVER THE PAST 24 HRS...WITH MORE ON THE
WAY. SURFACE LOW WILL GET PUSHED MORE NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE...THIS WILL PUSH PRECIP FARTHER EAST AND NORTHWARD ON
SUNDAY AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT. MAY
BE A TAD SLOW ON TIMING OF PRECIP YET HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE
EXACT EXIT TIMING.
THUNDER...
THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF THUNDER FOR SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY.
HOWEVER INCLUDED AN ISOLATED CHANCE AS TOTAL TOTALS REACH ABOVE 50
AND SURFACE LIS DO DROP TO NEAR 0. APPEARS THAT THE POTENTIAL IS
THERE ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY THANKS
TO THE DRY AIR ALLOWING FOR SOME DIURNAL HEATING TO BREAK THROUGH.
DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANYTHING TO BE STRONG OR SEVERE. HOWEVER WITH IT
BEING A HOLIDAY WEEKEND WANTED TO FOCUS ON THAT THE POTENTIAL IS
THERE.
TEMPERATURES...
AS UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...A COLD POOL
WILL SET UP ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO DROP WELL BELOW AVERAGE. EXPECT
HIGHS TO STRUGGLE TO REACH INTO THE 60S ON SATURDAY AND THE MID
60S ON SUNDAY. LOWS OVERNIGHT DO GET QUITE CHILLY...IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.
MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
MONDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY FROM THE SOGGY COOL WEEKEND TO A
WARM...DRY MID-WEEK. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF SHORE
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE...ALLOWING FOR MIDWEST RIDGE TO BUILD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER AND HELP KEEP A DRY FORECAST
FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT A SPOT SHOWER OR
TWO...ESP IF SEA BREEZES DEVELOPS. TEMPS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
MID-WEEK...WITH UPPER 60S FOR MONDAY TO UPPER 70S BY WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY...
MOTHER NATURE IS TRYING TO MAKE UP FOR THE COLD/RAINY WEEKEND BY
BRING A STRONG WARM FRONT TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE WEEK.
THIS WARM FRONT WILL BRING MUGGY CONDITIONS AND A CHANCE OS
ISOLATED SHOWERS. HOWEVER MAIN THINK TO WATCH IS MAX TEMPS...WHICH
MAY REACH THE MID 80S. SOME MODELS EVEN PUSH THE REGION INTO THE
90S. SINCE THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...KEEP IN MIND THAT MOTHER
NATURE MAY CHANGE HER MIND.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THROUGH 12Z...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE EAST COAST. LLWS POSSIBLE TOWARD
THE OUTER CAPE AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS AS A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-
LEVEL JET NUDGES ITS WAY NORTH.
TODAY...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS SHIFT
TO W-NW ACROSS WESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN LATE TODAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...MAINLY THIS
MORNING. LLWS LIKELY ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS THROUGH MIDDAY.
TONIGHT...EXPECTING SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VSBYS OVERNIGHT...
PARTICULARLY INLAND. NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS THOUGH.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...MAINLY DUE TO TIMING ISSUES.
SCATTERED TSRA POSSIBLE. LLWS LIKELY EAST OF THE TERMINAL FOR
APPROACHES OVER THE OCEAN.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE WEEKEND...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN
WITH VARIABILITY BETWEEN VFR CONDITIONS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
SHRA/TSRA/FOG. IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE TODAY.
A LOW-LEVEL JET AND MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BRING NEAR 25
KT GUSTS ON THE WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION WILL LIMIT GUSTS...SO GALES NOT EXPECTED. PERSISTENT SW
FLOW WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER
TODAY AS THIS LOW-LEVEL JET DEPARTS. EXPECTING LOW VSBYS IN FOG
AND LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A LOW PRES AND COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY STALL ACROSS THE EASTERN NEAR-SHORE WATERS. WIND DIRECTIONS
WILL BE QUITE DIFFERENT DEPENDING UPON WHERE THIS FRONT SETS UP
EXACTLY. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...BEFORE
REINTENSIFYING FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THIS LOW PRESSURE. LOW
PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AREAS OF LOW VSBYS IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG. SEAS WILL REMAIN 5 FT OR HIGHER...MAINLY
ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE WEEKEND...UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL LINGER ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS
SURFACE LOW STAYS OVER THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS. EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN
HIGH FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND. SMALL CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED T-
STORMS...BUT RAIN/SHOWERS WILL LOWER VSBYS ESP ON SATURDAY. GUSTY NW
BRING GUSTS CLOSE TO GALE FORCE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...HAVE HOISTED A
GALE WATCH. STRONG SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
EXPANDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO RI AND SE MA...AS FAR N AS
BOS...BASED ON RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS. LATEST NAM...RAP AND
HRR MODELS ALSO DEPICT THIS AREA. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT E DURING THE MORNING HOURS BUT WV IMAGERY DEPICTS A LITTLE
SHARPENING OF THE MID TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. IR AND WV IMAGERY SHOWS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE
TROPICAL CONNECTION ATTM. WE WILL EVENTUALLY LOSE THAT BUT
PROBABLY NOT UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY.
TWO AREAS ARE BEING WATCHED ESPECIALLY CLOSELY FOR NEED FOR FLASH
FLOOD WARNINGS. ONE IS THE URBAN AREAS OF SE MA...INCLUDING FALL
RIVER AND NEW BEDFORD. THERE DOES SEEM TO BE SOME EASTWARD SHIFT
OF THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS...CONSISTENT WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET
FORECAST ON THE NAM AND GFS. BOTH LOCATIONS CAN FLOOD QUICKLY
HOWEVER SO WATCHING VERY CLOSELY. SECOND AREA IS NORTHERN
WORCESTER COUNTY AND FAR NW MIDDLESEX COUNTY WHERE PERSISTENT BAND
IS CAUSING SHARP RISES IN SMALL STREAMS. THE NORTH NASHUA RIVER AT
FITCHBURG ITSELF IS SHOWING A MODERATELY STEEP RISE AND NEEDS TO
BE WATCHED CLOSELY. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING COOLING TOPS
HEADING TOWARD NORTHERN WORCESTER COUNTY AND SO A FLASH FLOOD
WARNING MAY BECOME NECESSARY IN THE NEAR FUTURE THERE.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EAST COAST OF MA THIS WEEKEND...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WITH A SURFACE LOW LINGERING JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND EAST COAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...EXPECTING GUSTY
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWEST WINDS ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIMES HOURS.
AT BOSTON...A HIGH TIDE OF 11.9FT WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AT 11:21 PM
AND 12.2 FT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AT 12:12 AM. EXPECTING LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS DURING TODAY/S DAYTIME HIGH TIDE...SO THIS IS LESS
OF A CONCERN. LOOKING AT THE SUNDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE... NORTHERLY
TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY HELP INCREASE THE SURGE ESPECIALLY FOR
CAPE COD BAY. RIGHT NOW ONLY EXPECTING MINOR SPLASHOVER ACROSS
NORTH-FACING BEACHES. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND UPDATE
WITH THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MAZ002>004-008>013-
015>021-026.
NH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NHZ011-015.
RI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ231>234-251.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
ANZ235-237-255-256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
255-256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN
HYDROLOGY...THOMPSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DUNTEN
000
FXUS61 KBOX 240720
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
320 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY. A LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THIS FRONT...CAUSING THE ENTIRE SYSTEM
TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND COOLER CONDITIONS...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
SOME OF THE RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE MONDAY. DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
2 AM UPDATE...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS EXPANDED FARTHER EAST AS RAINFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET HAS STARTED TO TRACK FARTHER WESTWARD.
THIS WOULD PUT MANY OF THE MORE URBANIZED AREAS ACROSS RI AND
EASTERN MA MORE AT RISK.
CURRENT PREFERENCE IS FOR A BLEND OF THE 24/00Z NAM AND 24/00Z
GFS FOR THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE VARIOUS SYNOPTIC FEATURES
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE GFS SOLUTION WAS SLIGHTLY FASTER TO MOVE
THE UPPER LEVEL COMPONENTS OF THIS SYSTEM AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THAN THE NAM. HOWEVER...THERE ARE DETAILS IN THE NAM
SOLUTION WHICH WE FELT SHOULD NOT BE IGNORED...MAINLY THE BANDING
AND INTENSITY OF THE RAINFALL WHICH ARE TOUGHER FOR THE GFS TO
RESOLVE.
EXPECTING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NY STATE AND NORTHEAST PA
TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO THIS
MORNING. THIS FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE COAST
BEFORE STALLING THIS EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT.
THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF LIFT FOR THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
ALREADY IN PLACE TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IS WEAK THIS MORNING...HOWEVER THE LOW-
LEVEL JET MAY BE ENOUGH OF A FOCUS TO PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN FOR THAT WOULD BE RI AND EASTERN
MA.
TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET MOS GUIDANCE...WITH
SOME LOCAL BIAS-CORRECTED GUIDANCE THROWN IN FOR GOOD MEASURE.
NOT EXPECTING A LARGE DIURNAL RANGE TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
A DEVELOPING LOW-PRESSURE JUST EAST OF MA THIS EVENING IS NOT
EXPECTED TO MAKE MUCH PROGRESS AWAY FROM OUR REGION. HOWEVER...AS
THIS LOW DEVELOPS A DRY SLOT IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY CUT BACK ON
THE COVERAGE OF RAINFALL TOWARD THE EAST COAST. MAIN DEFORMATION
AND FRONTOGENESIS ZONES SHIFT INLAND AS WELL.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FORECAST. A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE
HANDLES THIS WELL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND
* IMPROVEMENTS BEGIN ON MONDAY...WITH DRIER BUT COOL CONDITIONS
* MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARRIVE BY LATE NEXT WEEK
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
ALL OPERATIONAL MODELS NOW ON BOARD WITH DEVELOPING AMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48...WITH DIGGING TROUGHS ON
THE EAST AND WEST COASTS WITH BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S. THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THIS PERIOD. H5 CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE MID ATLC THEN SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG SLOWLY MOVING COLD
FRONT. LOWERED CONFIDENCE ON TIMING THE EXIT OF THE LOW...
HOWEVER. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH...SHOULD SEE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS BUT COOL TEMPS. TEMPS START TO MODERATE BY MID WEEK.
WENT ALONG WITH 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF AND THEIR ENSEMBLES...WHICH IS
PRETTY CLOSE TO THE WPC GUIDANCE.
DETAILS...
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...CONTINUED CLOUDY SKIES WITH SHOWERS AND
COOL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
SURFACE LOW PRES TRAPPED WITH ITS UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW WILL
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
ANY TIME DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. CURRENT QPF FORECAST SUGGESTS
POSSIBILITY OF 1-2 INCHES OF GENERAL RAIN WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE CT VALLEY AND SW NH. HOWEVER...WITH THE CHANCE OF
THUNDER...COULD SEE LOCALIZED FLOODING ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND WESTERN AREAS WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL OF FLOODING ALONG RIVERS AND LOW
LYING AREAS.
TEMPS WILL BECOME RATHER CHILLY ACROSS S NH/W MA SAT NIGHT AS LOW
PRES SPINS ACROSS E MA...WITH N-NW WINDS IN PLACE. MOS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS READINGS FALLING BACK TO THE MID-UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. CAN NOT RULE OUT THE REMOTE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
MIXING OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF SW NH.
FOR NOW...LOOKS LIKE THE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY
MOVE NE DURING SUNDAY...BUT PRECIP WILL LINGER INTO SUN NIGHT
BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM SW-NE OVERNIGHT SUN. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE 50S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MONDAY...TRANSITION DAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA.
MAY STILL SEE SOME WIDELY SCT SHOWERS ACROSS S NH/NE MA EARLY BUT
WILL PUSH NE. WILL CONTINUE COOL...BUT READINGS SHOULD REACH THE
60S.
TUESDAY-THURSDAY...HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT TO THE MID ATLC COAST THEN
OFFSHORE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. EXPECT A DRY FORECAST WITH SLOWLY
MODERATING TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THROUGH 12Z...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE EAST COAST. LLWS POSSIBLE TOWARD
THE OUTER CAPE AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS AS A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-
LEVEL JET NUDGES ITS WAY NORTH.
TODAY...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS SHIFT
TO W-NW ACROSS WESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN LATE TODAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...MAINLY THIS
MORNING. LLWS LIKELY ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS THROUGH MIDDAY.
TONIGHT...EXPECTING SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VSBYS OVERNIGHT...
PARTICULARLY INLAND. NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS THOUGH.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...MAINLY DUE TO TIMING ISSUES.
SCATTERED TSRA POSSIBLE. LLWS LIKELY EAST OF THE TERMINAL FOR
APPROACHES OVER THE OCEAN.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VERY
UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH VARIABILITY BETWEEN VFR CONDITIONS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA/SCT TSRA/FOG. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
DURING SUNDAY NIGHT FROM SW TO NE.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW PROB OF
MVFR CIGS ACROSS S NH/N MA EARLY MON THEN IMPROVING. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE TODAY.
A LOW-LEVEL JET AND MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BRING NEAR 25
KT GUSTS ON THE WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION WILL LIMIT GUSTS...SO GALES NOT EXPECTED. PERSISTENT SW
FLOW WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER
TODAY AS THIS LOW-LEVEL JET DEPARTS. EXPECTING LOW VSBYS IN FOG
AND LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A LOW PRES AND COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY STALL ACROSS THE EASTERN NEAR-SHORE WATERS. WIND DIRECTIONS
WILL BE QUITE DIFFERENT DEPENDING UPON WHERE THIS FRONT SETS UP
EXACTLY. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...BEFORE
REINTENSIFYING FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THIS LOW PRESSURE. LOW
PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AREAS OF LOW VSBYS IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG. SEAS WILL REMAIN 5 FT OR HIGHER...MAINLY
ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE MAINLY FOR TIMING. AS LOW PRES
STALLS ACROSS E MA/MASS BAY...WILL SEE LIGHT/VRBL WINDS EXCEPT
N-NW OVER THE WESTERN WATERS LATER SAT...WHICH WILL SHIFT TOWARD
THE EASTERN WATERS DURING SUN. SEAS REMAIN HIGH. LOW CHANCE OF
TSTMS SAT-SAT NIGHT. LOW PROB OF GUSTS UP TO 25 KT SUN.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS BECOME W WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT MON...THEN DIMINISH MON NIGHT-TUE. SEAS AROUND 5
FT ON THE OUTER WATERS MON...THEN SUBSIDING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
EXPANDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO RI AND SE MA...AS FAR N AS
BOS...BASED ON RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS. LATEST NAM...RAP AND
HRR MODELS ALSO DEPICT THIS AREA. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT E DURING THE MORNING HOURS BUT WV IMAGERY DEPICTS A LITTLE
SHARPENING OF THE MID TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. IR AND WV IMAGERY SHOWS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE
TROPICAL CONNECTION ATTM. WE WILL EVENTUALLY LOSE THAT BUT
PROBABLY NOT UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY.
TWO AREAS ARE BEING WATCHED ESPECIALLY CLOSELY FOR NEED FOR FLASH
FLOOD WARNINGS. ONE IS THE URBAN AREAS OF SE MA...INCLUDING FALL
RIVER AND NEW BEDFORD. THERE DOES SEEM TO BE SOME EASTWARD SHIFT
OF THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS...CONSISTENT WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET
FORECAST ON THE NAM AND GFS. BOTH LOCATIONS CAN FLOOD QUICKLY
HOWEVER SO WATCHING VERY CLOSELY. SECOND AREA IS NORTHERN
WORCESTER COUNTY AND FAR NW MIDDLESEX COUNTY WHERE PERSISTENT BAND
IS CAUSING SHARP RISES IN SMALL STREAMS. THE NORTH NASHUA RIVER AT
FITCHBURG ITSELF IS SHOWING A MODERATELY STEEP RISE AND NEEDS TO
BE WATCHED CLOSELY. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING COOLING TOPS
HEADING TOWARD NORTHERN WORCESTER COUNTY AND SO A FLASH FLOOD
WARNING MAY BECOME NECESSARY IN THE NEAR FUTURE THERE.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EAST COAST OF MA THIS WEEKEND...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WITH A SURFACE LOW LINGERING JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND EAST COAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...EXPECTING GUSTY
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWEST WINDS ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIMES HOURS.
AT BOSTON...A HIGH TIDE OF 11.9FT WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AT 11:21 PM
AND 12.2 FT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AT 12:12 AM. EXPECTING LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS DURING TODAY/S DAYTIME HIGH TIDE...SO THIS IS
LESS OF A CONCERN. LOOKING AT THE SUNDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE...
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY HELP INCREASE THE SURGE
ESPECIALLY FOR CAPE COD BAY. RIGHT NOW ONLY EXPECTING MINOR
SPLASHOVER ACROSS NORTH-FACING BEACHES. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AND UPDATE WITH THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MAZ002>004-008>013-
015>021-026.
NH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NHZ011-015.
RI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ232.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ233-234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ231-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT
HYDROLOGY...THOMPSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
000
FXUS61 KBOX 240651
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
251 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY. A LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THIS FRONT...CAUSING THE ENTIRE SYSTEM
TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND COOLER CONDITIONS...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
SOME OF THE RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE MONDAY. DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS EXPANDED FARTHER EAST AS RAINFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET HAS STARTED TO TRACK FARTHER WESTWARD.
THIS WOULD PUT MANY OF THE MORE URBANIZED AREAS ACROSS RI AND
EASTERN MA MORE AT RISK.
CURRENT PREFERENCE IS FOR A BLEND OF THE 24/00Z NAM AND 24/00Z
GFS FOR THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE VARIOUS SYNOPTIC FEATURES
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE GFS SOLUTION WAS SLIGHTLY FASTER TO MOVE
THE UPPER LEVEL COMPONENTS OF THIS SYSTEM AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THAN THE NAM. HOWEVER...THERE ARE DETAILS IN THE NAM
SOLUTION WHICH WE FELT SHOULD NOT BE IGNORED...MAINLY THE BANDING
AND INTENSITY OF THE RAINFALL WHICH ARE TOUGHER FOR THE GFS TO
RESOLVE.
EXPECTING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NY STATE AND NORTHEAST PA
TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO THIS
MORNING. THIS FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE COAST
BEFORE STALLING THIS EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT.
THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF LIFT FOR THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
ALREADY IN PLACE TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IS WEAK THIS MORNING...HOWEVER THE LOW-
LEVEL JET MAY BE ENOUGH OF A FOCUS TO PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN FOR THAT WOULD BE RI AND EASTERN
MA.
TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET MOS GUIDANCE...WITH
SOME LOCAL BIAS-CORRECTED GUIDANCE THROWN IN FOR GOOD MEASURE.
NOT EXPECTING A LARGE DIURNAL RANGE TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
A DEVELOPING LOW-PRESSURE JUST EAST OF MA THIS EVENING IS NOT
EXPECTED TO MAKE MUCH PROGRESS AWAY FROM OUR REGION. HOWEVER...AS
THIS LOW DEVELOPS A DRY SLOT IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY CUT BACK ON
THE COVERAGE OF RAINFALL TOWARD THE EAST COAST. MAIN DEFORMATION
AND FRONTOGENESIS ZONES SHIFT INLAND AS WELL.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FORECAST. A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE
HANDLES THIS WELL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND
* IMPROVEMENTS BEGIN ON MONDAY...WITH DRIER BUT COOL CONDITIONS
* MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARRIVE BY LATE NEXT WEEK
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
ALL OPERATIONAL MODELS NOW ON BOARD WITH DEVELOPING AMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48...WITH DIGGING TROUGHS ON
THE EAST AND WEST COASTS WITH BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S. THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THIS PERIOD. H5 CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE MID ATLC THEN SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG SLOWLY MOVING COLD
FRONT. LOWERED CONFIDENCE ON TIMING THE EXIT OF THE LOW...
HOWEVER. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH...SHOULD SEE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS BUT COOL TEMPS. TEMPS START TO MODERATE BY MID WEEK.
WENT ALONG WITH 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF AND THEIR ENSEMBLES...WHICH IS
PRETTY CLOSE TO THE WPC GUIDANCE.
DETAILS...
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...CONTINUED CLOUDY SKIES WITH SHOWERS AND
COOL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
SURFACE LOW PRES TRAPPED WITH ITS UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW WILL
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
ANY TIME DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. CURRENT QPF FORECAST SUGGESTS
POSSIBILITY OF 1-2 INCHES OF GENERAL RAIN WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE CT VALLEY AND SW NH. HOWEVER...WITH THE CHANCE OF
THUNDER...COULD SEE LOCALIZED FLOODING ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND WESTERN AREAS WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL OF FLOODING ALONG RIVERS AND LOW
LYING AREAS.
TEMPS WILL BECOME RATHER CHILLY ACROSS S NH/W MA SAT NIGHT AS LOW
PRES SPINS ACROSS E MA...WITH N-NW WINDS IN PLACE. MOS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS READINGS FALLING BACK TO THE MID-UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. CAN NOT RULE OUT THE REMOTE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
MIXING OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF SW NH.
FOR NOW...LOOKS LIKE THE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY
MOVE NE DURING SUNDAY...BUT PRECIP WILL LINGER INTO SUN NIGHT
BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM SW-NE OVERNIGHT SUN. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE 50S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MONDAY...TRANSITION DAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA.
MAY STILL SEE SOME WIDELY SCT SHOWERS ACROSS S NH/NE MA EARLY BUT
WILL PUSH NE. WILL CONTINUE COOL...BUT READINGS SHOULD REACH THE
60S.
TUESDAY-THURSDAY...HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT TO THE MID ATLC COAST THEN
OFFSHORE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. EXPECT A DRY FORECAST WITH SLOWLY
MODERATING TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THROUGH 12Z...MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE EAST COAST. LLWS POSSIBLE TOWARD
THE OUTER CAPE AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS AS A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-
LEVEL JET NUDGES ITS WAY NORTH.
TODAY...MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS SHIFT
TO W-NW ACROSS WESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN LATE TODAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...MAINLY THIS
MORNING. LLWS LIKELY ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS THROUGH MIDDAY.
TONIGHT...EXPECTING SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VSBYS OVERNIGHT...
PARTICULARLY INLAND. NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS THOUGH.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...MAINLY DUE TO TIMING ISSUES.
SCATTERED TSRA POSSIBLE. LLWS LIKELY EAST OF THE TERMINAL FOR
APPROACHES OVER THE OCEAN.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VERY
UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH VARIABILITY BETWEEN VFR CONDITIONS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA/SCT TSRA/FOG. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
DURING SUNDAY NIGHT FROM SW TO NE.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. LOW PROB OF
MVFR CIGS ACROSS S NH/N MA EARLY MON THEN IMPROVING. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE TODAY.
A LOW-LEVEL JET AND MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BRING NEAR 25
KT GUSTS ON THE WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION WILL LIMIT GUSTS...SO GALES NOT EXPECTED. PERSISTENT SW
FLOW WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER
TODAY AS THIS LOW-LEVEL JET DEPARTS. EXPECTING LOW VSBYS IN FOG
AND LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A LOW PRES AND COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY STALL ACROSS THE EASTERN NEAR-SHORE WATERS. WIND DIRECTIONS
WILL BE QUITE DIFFERENT DEPENDING UPON WHERE THIS FRONT SETS UP
EXACTLY. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...BEFORE
REINTENSIFYING FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THIS LOW PRESSURE. LOW
PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AREAS OF LOW VSBYS IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG. SEAS WILL REMAIN 5 FT OR HIGHER...MAINLY
ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE MAINLY FOR TIMING. AS LOW PRES
STALLS ACROSS E MA/MASS BAY...WILL SEE LIGHT/VRBL WINDS EXCEPT
N-NW OVER THE WESTERN WATERS LATER SAT...WHICH WILL SHIFT TOWARD
THE EASTERN WATERS DURING SUN. SEAS REMAIN HIGH. LOW CHANCE OF
TSTMS SAT-SAT NIGHT. LOW PROB OF GUSTS UP TO 25 KT SUN.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS BECOME W WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT MON...THEN DIMINISH MON NIGHT-TUE. SEAS AROUND 5
FT ON THE OUTER WATERS MON...THEN SUBSIDING.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EAST COAST OF MA THIS WEEKEND...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WITH A SURFACE LOW LINGERING JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND EAST COAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...EXPECTING GUSTY
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWEST WINDS ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIMES HOURS.
AT BOSTON...A HIGH TIDE OF 11.9FT WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AT 11:21 PM
AND 12.2 FT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AT 12:12 AM. EXPECTING LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS DURING TODAY/S DAYTIME HIGH TIDE...SO THIS IS
LESS OF A CONCERN. LOOKING AT THE SUNDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE...
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY HELP INCREASE THE SURGE
ESPECIALLY FOR CAPE COD BAY. RIGHT NOW ONLY EXPECTING MINOR
SPLASHOVER ACROSS NORTH-FACING BEACHES. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AND UPDATE WITH THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MAZ002>004-008>013-
015>021-026.
NH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NHZ011-015.
RI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ232.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ233-234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ231-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ235-
237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF
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