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000
FXUS61 KBOX 211944
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
344 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...DISSOLVING SOUTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE MARITIMES WILL BRING DRIER AND
COOLER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY OR
NEXT THURSDAY AS A FRONT MAY APPROACH OUT OF QUEBEC.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

INTO THE EVENING...

MOISTURE LOADING CONTINUING WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS BENEATH MID-
LEVEL ASCENT FORCED BY VORTICITY ADVECTION ROUND THE BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE BEGINNING TO SLIDE SE AND WEAKEN. CHALLENGING TO SAY
THE LEAST TO PIN-POINT SHOWERS AND BE SPECIFIC. HAVE GONE WITH A
BROAD-BRUSH CONSENSUS EMPHASIZING FORECAST CONFIDENCE OF WHERE
LIKELY LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND F-GEN FORCING WILL BE GREATEST
BENEATH MID-LEVEL LIFT. ASIDE FROM THE IMMEDIATE E...MOST LOCALES
COULD SEE WET WEATHER INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
PRESENTLY FORECAST ACROSS THE W.

TONIGHT...

LOW TRANSITIONS AS AN OPEN-WAVE LOW TOWARDS THE SE. ACCOMPANYING
MAIN CRUX OF ENERGY YIELDS ASCENT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE FUELED BY A
SW-PLUME OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR WRAPPING AHEAD OF THE LOW /1.5 PWAT
AIRMASS/ CONVERGING AGAINST HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR BUILDING SW
BELOW H8. THIS YIELDS NW-SE ORIENTED AREAS OF F-GEN FORCING WITHIN
THE LOW-LEVELS THAT WILL LIKELY PARENT WITH MID-LEVEL FORCING.

A CONSENSUS WEIGHTING OF MODEL GUIDANCE PUTS THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS TOWARDS THE W/SW FORECAST ZONE WHICH WOULD BE EXPECTED BUT
CAN NOT RULE OUT OF CHANCE OF SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. ONLY THE
IMMEDIATE E/SE MAY BE SPARED OF WET WEATHER...BUT AM NOT HOLDING
MY BREATH. LOW CONFIDENCE OF THUNDER WITH THE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.

WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
IS IN AREAS OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. YET WITH E-ONSHORE FLOW
DRIVING IN HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR...ALONG WITH THE GREATER CAPACITY
FOR AREAS TO RADIATE EFFICIENTLY THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR E/SE PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND.
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE W MAY COMPLICATE THE MATTER.

WILL GO WITH LOWS AROUND THE UPPER-50S TO LOW-60S WITH THE COOL
SPOTS TO THE N/W WHICH BARELY SAW ANY SUN...AND THE E/SE IMMEDIATE
INTERIOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

FRIDAY...

WITH THE LOW SWUNG SE OF THE REGION...CUTOFF ENERGY WRAPS REARWARD
AND SE INTO THE REGION INVOKING A HANGING TROUGH. RISING HEIGHTS IN
WAKE OF THE TROUGH ALLOW FOR ENHANCED RIDGING OF HIGH PRESSURE SW
AHEAD OF WHICH F-GEN FORCING IS MAXIMIZED WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS.
PARENTING WITH MID-LEVEL ASCENT PER CUTOFF ENERGY...THERE IS THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR CONTINUED SHOWERY WEATHER OVER SW PORTIONS OF NEW
ENGLAND.

WILL HOLD WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS FAR W/SW PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BENEATH AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS. AM NOT GOING TO GET
SPECIFIC WITH THE FORECAST POPS BUT RATHER BROAD BRUSH AN AREA
WHERE THERE IS HIGHEST CONFIDENCE. CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS E.

COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND RAIN COULD MAKE FOR A VERY CHILL DAY
ESPECIALLY FOR MID- TO LATE-AUGUST. THE DREARY WEATHER COULD YIELD
HIGHS AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-60S FOR THE S/W...WARMER E WHERE THE
GREATER CHANCE OF SEEING SOME SUNSHINE YET ONLY INTO THE UPPER-60S
WITH THE BRISK ONSHORE E-FLOW SURGING INTO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.

FRIDAY NIGHT...

ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR BUILDING SW AS
HEIGHTS RISE IN RESPONSE TO THE HANGING TROUGH SWINGING S/E. LOW-
LEVEL F-GEN FORCING AND MID-LEVEL FORCING SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH SW
INTO NY/PA AHEAD OF CONTINUED RIDGE ENHANCEMENT.

WHILE CONSENSUS WEIGHTING OF MODEL GUIDANCE YIELDS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR S/W PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE LONG E-FETCH
OFF THE WATERS LIKELY RESULTING IN MOISTURE POOLING WITHIN THE LOW-
LEVELS COULD RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...PERHAPS EVEN DRIZZLE AS
THE FLOW UNDERGOES OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG THE E-SHORELINE.

A TOUGH FORECAST AND A LIKELY COOL AND DREARY NIGHT WITH LOWS
GETTING DOWN AROUND THE MID-50S. WITH DEWPOINTS AT SIMILAR VALUES...
ANTICIPATING A PLETHORA OF PATCHY DENSE FOG WHERE THE E-FLOW IS
LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD
* MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS RIDGE TRIES
  TO BUILD EAST
* TIMING OF APPROACHING FRONT BY LATE NEXT WEEK REMAINS UNCERTAIN

BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA AS H5 CUTOFF LOW PRES REMAINS PERSISTENT S OF GREENLAND
THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SOME QUESTIONS DO
COME INTO PLAY AS THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER FLOW TRIES TO
RECONFIGURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. NW FLOW TRIES TO FLATTEN OUT LATER THIS
WEEKEND...THEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING APPEARS TO BUILD IN BRIEFLY
AROUND MONDAY OR TUESDAY. OPERATIONAL MODEL RUN DIFFERENCES MAY BE
RESOLVING...BUT STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES CONTINUE LATE NEXT WEEK.
THIS LENDS TO LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEYOND TUESDAY.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...

EXPECT HIGH PRES RIDGING TO CONTINUE TO NOSE IN FROM THE MARITIMES.
THE ORIENTATION OF THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP COOL ONSHORE WINDS. SEVERAL
OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTIONS...MAINLY THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF...TRY TO WORK
CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT PRECIP OFF THE OCEAN DURING SAT WITH LONG
FETCH OFF THE GULF OF MAINE. CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLD SHOWERS THAT MAY
MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY MORNING THEN PUSH W. COULD EVEN SEE SOME LIGHT
DRIZZLE AROUND SUNRISE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HAVE MENTIONED
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT...THOUGH...BECAUSE OF
UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE REALIZED. ONE CERTAINTY
THOUGH IS THAT COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS WILL REMAIN WITH THE ONSHORE
WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...

LOOKS LIKE THE MARITIMES RIDGE AXIS TRIES TO PUSH OFFSHORE AS H5
RIDGE PUSHES SE OUT OF ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES AND ACTUALLY
BUILDS INTO QUEBEC...A SET UP THAT HAS BEEN RARE THIS SUMMER. WILL
REMAIN DRY BUT LOOKS LIKE MILDER TEMPS ON THE HORIZON AS WINDS BACK
AROUND TO W AND SW. TEMPS LOOK BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR LATE
AUGUST...THOUGH WILL REMAIN A BIT COOLER ALONG THE S COAST. HUMIDITY
WILL ALSO START TO INCREASE DURING TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...

WHILE THE LAST SEVERAL ECMWF OP RUNS HAVE BEEN MUCH FASTER THAN THE
COUNTERPART GFS...THE 12Z RUN LOOKS MUCH CLOSER WITH ITS SOLUTION IN
KEEPING RIDGING ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.  ONE BIG FLY IN
THE OINTMENT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A SYSTEM THAT WILL TRY TO MAKE
THE TURN AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OFFSHORE...BUT THAT IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN.  WEAK COLD FRONT MAY STILL TRY TO WORK OUT OF QUEBEC LAST
WED OR THU...THEN COULD STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. STILL A
TOUGH CALL. ALSO...DEPENDING UPON AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY...MIGHT SEE SOME SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS IN
VICINITY OF THE FRONT. LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS RUN
ALONG WITH GFS/EC ENSEMBLES FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR INTO THIS EVENING. BUT AS E-ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AND SHOWERS
BUILD OVER THE S/W NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS...GREATER PROPENSITY FOR
A MIX OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. UNSURE AS
TO OUTCOMES E/SE. ITS POSSIBLE THE REGION REMAINS VFR ALBEIT SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH EVENING
COOLING.

INTO THE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD...ANTICIPATING LOW-END
VFR CLOUDS MIXED IN WITH MVFR AND SHOWERS TO THE S/W ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. E-WINDS CONTINUING WITH A LONG FETCH OFF
THE WATERS. TRANSITIONING INTO EVENING...WHILE SHOWERS CONCLUDE...
A MAJORITY OF THE TERMINALS MAY BECOME SOCKED IN WITH LOW-CLOUDS
AND/OR DENSE FOG. LIKELY TO SEE -DZ ALONG THE E-SHORE TERMINALS
TOWARDS SATURDAY MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WILL HOLD LOW-END VFR FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST. COULD SEE CONDITIONS GRADUALLY LOWER
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. E-FLOW PERSISTING THROUGHOUT AND
INCREASING TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD...THUS LENDING TO
CONFIDENCE MORE SO OF MVFR-IFR LOW-CLOUDS OVER DENSE FOG WITH -DZ.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TO
LOWER INTO EVENING WITH INCREASING -SHRA CHANCES. MAY REMAIN
SOCKED IN AROUND MVFR THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
ALL THE WAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY FOG WITH BRIEF
LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NE-WINDS INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO INTERIOR LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING
SE ACROSS THE WATERS WITH SOME MILD STRENGTHENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE N. SUBSEQUENT PRESSURE-GRADIENT MAY YIELD SOME
DECENT FETCH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS TO CAUSE SEAS TO RISE...BUT
WILL HOLD AT 4 FEET. FEEL BRISK WINDS WILL DIMINISH FOG POTENTIAL
YET LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAY BE AN ISSUE FOR AREAS TOWARDS THE
SW.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT E SWELLS COULD BUILD CLOSE TO 5 FT ON THE
OUTER WATERS THIS WEEKEND WITH LONG E FETCH...EVEN WITH WIND SPEEDS
LESS THAN 15 KT. MAY SEE PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES
EACH NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/EVT
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/EVT
MARINE...SIPPRELL/EVT



000
FXUS61 KBOX 211944
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
344 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...DISSOLVING SOUTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE MARITIMES WILL BRING DRIER AND
COOLER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY OR
NEXT THURSDAY AS A FRONT MAY APPROACH OUT OF QUEBEC.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

INTO THE EVENING...

MOISTURE LOADING CONTINUING WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS BENEATH MID-
LEVEL ASCENT FORCED BY VORTICITY ADVECTION ROUND THE BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE BEGINNING TO SLIDE SE AND WEAKEN. CHALLENGING TO SAY
THE LEAST TO PIN-POINT SHOWERS AND BE SPECIFIC. HAVE GONE WITH A
BROAD-BRUSH CONSENSUS EMPHASIZING FORECAST CONFIDENCE OF WHERE
LIKELY LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND F-GEN FORCING WILL BE GREATEST
BENEATH MID-LEVEL LIFT. ASIDE FROM THE IMMEDIATE E...MOST LOCALES
COULD SEE WET WEATHER INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
PRESENTLY FORECAST ACROSS THE W.

TONIGHT...

LOW TRANSITIONS AS AN OPEN-WAVE LOW TOWARDS THE SE. ACCOMPANYING
MAIN CRUX OF ENERGY YIELDS ASCENT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE FUELED BY A
SW-PLUME OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR WRAPPING AHEAD OF THE LOW /1.5 PWAT
AIRMASS/ CONVERGING AGAINST HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR BUILDING SW
BELOW H8. THIS YIELDS NW-SE ORIENTED AREAS OF F-GEN FORCING WITHIN
THE LOW-LEVELS THAT WILL LIKELY PARENT WITH MID-LEVEL FORCING.

A CONSENSUS WEIGHTING OF MODEL GUIDANCE PUTS THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS TOWARDS THE W/SW FORECAST ZONE WHICH WOULD BE EXPECTED BUT
CAN NOT RULE OUT OF CHANCE OF SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. ONLY THE
IMMEDIATE E/SE MAY BE SPARED OF WET WEATHER...BUT AM NOT HOLDING
MY BREATH. LOW CONFIDENCE OF THUNDER WITH THE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.

WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
IS IN AREAS OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. YET WITH E-ONSHORE FLOW
DRIVING IN HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR...ALONG WITH THE GREATER CAPACITY
FOR AREAS TO RADIATE EFFICIENTLY THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR E/SE PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND.
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE W MAY COMPLICATE THE MATTER.

WILL GO WITH LOWS AROUND THE UPPER-50S TO LOW-60S WITH THE COOL
SPOTS TO THE N/W WHICH BARELY SAW ANY SUN...AND THE E/SE IMMEDIATE
INTERIOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

FRIDAY...

WITH THE LOW SWUNG SE OF THE REGION...CUTOFF ENERGY WRAPS REARWARD
AND SE INTO THE REGION INVOKING A HANGING TROUGH. RISING HEIGHTS IN
WAKE OF THE TROUGH ALLOW FOR ENHANCED RIDGING OF HIGH PRESSURE SW
AHEAD OF WHICH F-GEN FORCING IS MAXIMIZED WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS.
PARENTING WITH MID-LEVEL ASCENT PER CUTOFF ENERGY...THERE IS THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR CONTINUED SHOWERY WEATHER OVER SW PORTIONS OF NEW
ENGLAND.

WILL HOLD WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS FAR W/SW PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BENEATH AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS. AM NOT GOING TO GET
SPECIFIC WITH THE FORECAST POPS BUT RATHER BROAD BRUSH AN AREA
WHERE THERE IS HIGHEST CONFIDENCE. CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS E.

COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND RAIN COULD MAKE FOR A VERY CHILL DAY
ESPECIALLY FOR MID- TO LATE-AUGUST. THE DREARY WEATHER COULD YIELD
HIGHS AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-60S FOR THE S/W...WARMER E WHERE THE
GREATER CHANCE OF SEEING SOME SUNSHINE YET ONLY INTO THE UPPER-60S
WITH THE BRISK ONSHORE E-FLOW SURGING INTO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND.

FRIDAY NIGHT...

ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR BUILDING SW AS
HEIGHTS RISE IN RESPONSE TO THE HANGING TROUGH SWINGING S/E. LOW-
LEVEL F-GEN FORCING AND MID-LEVEL FORCING SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH SW
INTO NY/PA AHEAD OF CONTINUED RIDGE ENHANCEMENT.

WHILE CONSENSUS WEIGHTING OF MODEL GUIDANCE YIELDS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR S/W PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE LONG E-FETCH
OFF THE WATERS LIKELY RESULTING IN MOISTURE POOLING WITHIN THE LOW-
LEVELS COULD RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...PERHAPS EVEN DRIZZLE AS
THE FLOW UNDERGOES OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG THE E-SHORELINE.

A TOUGH FORECAST AND A LIKELY COOL AND DREARY NIGHT WITH LOWS
GETTING DOWN AROUND THE MID-50S. WITH DEWPOINTS AT SIMILAR VALUES...
ANTICIPATING A PLETHORA OF PATCHY DENSE FOG WHERE THE E-FLOW IS
LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD
* MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS RIDGE TRIES
  TO BUILD EAST
* TIMING OF APPROACHING FRONT BY LATE NEXT WEEK REMAINS UNCERTAIN

BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA AS H5 CUTOFF LOW PRES REMAINS PERSISTENT S OF GREENLAND
THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SOME QUESTIONS DO
COME INTO PLAY AS THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER FLOW TRIES TO
RECONFIGURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. NW FLOW TRIES TO FLATTEN OUT LATER THIS
WEEKEND...THEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING APPEARS TO BUILD IN BRIEFLY
AROUND MONDAY OR TUESDAY. OPERATIONAL MODEL RUN DIFFERENCES MAY BE
RESOLVING...BUT STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES CONTINUE LATE NEXT WEEK.
THIS LENDS TO LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEYOND TUESDAY.

DETAILS...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...

EXPECT HIGH PRES RIDGING TO CONTINUE TO NOSE IN FROM THE MARITIMES.
THE ORIENTATION OF THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP COOL ONSHORE WINDS. SEVERAL
OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTIONS...MAINLY THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF...TRY TO WORK
CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT PRECIP OFF THE OCEAN DURING SAT WITH LONG
FETCH OFF THE GULF OF MAINE. CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLD SHOWERS THAT MAY
MOVE ONSHORE SATURDAY MORNING THEN PUSH W. COULD EVEN SEE SOME LIGHT
DRIZZLE AROUND SUNRISE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HAVE MENTIONED
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT...THOUGH...BECAUSE OF
UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE REALIZED. ONE CERTAINTY
THOUGH IS THAT COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS WILL REMAIN WITH THE ONSHORE
WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...

LOOKS LIKE THE MARITIMES RIDGE AXIS TRIES TO PUSH OFFSHORE AS H5
RIDGE PUSHES SE OUT OF ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES AND ACTUALLY
BUILDS INTO QUEBEC...A SET UP THAT HAS BEEN RARE THIS SUMMER. WILL
REMAIN DRY BUT LOOKS LIKE MILDER TEMPS ON THE HORIZON AS WINDS BACK
AROUND TO W AND SW. TEMPS LOOK BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR LATE
AUGUST...THOUGH WILL REMAIN A BIT COOLER ALONG THE S COAST. HUMIDITY
WILL ALSO START TO INCREASE DURING TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...

WHILE THE LAST SEVERAL ECMWF OP RUNS HAVE BEEN MUCH FASTER THAN THE
COUNTERPART GFS...THE 12Z RUN LOOKS MUCH CLOSER WITH ITS SOLUTION IN
KEEPING RIDGING ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.  ONE BIG FLY IN
THE OINTMENT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A SYSTEM THAT WILL TRY TO MAKE
THE TURN AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OFFSHORE...BUT THAT IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN.  WEAK COLD FRONT MAY STILL TRY TO WORK OUT OF QUEBEC LAST
WED OR THU...THEN COULD STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. STILL A
TOUGH CALL. ALSO...DEPENDING UPON AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY...MIGHT SEE SOME SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS IN
VICINITY OF THE FRONT. LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS RUN
ALONG WITH GFS/EC ENSEMBLES FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR INTO THIS EVENING. BUT AS E-ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AND SHOWERS
BUILD OVER THE S/W NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS...GREATER PROPENSITY FOR
A MIX OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. UNSURE AS
TO OUTCOMES E/SE. ITS POSSIBLE THE REGION REMAINS VFR ALBEIT SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH EVENING
COOLING.

INTO THE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD...ANTICIPATING LOW-END
VFR CLOUDS MIXED IN WITH MVFR AND SHOWERS TO THE S/W ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. E-WINDS CONTINUING WITH A LONG FETCH OFF
THE WATERS. TRANSITIONING INTO EVENING...WHILE SHOWERS CONCLUDE...
A MAJORITY OF THE TERMINALS MAY BECOME SOCKED IN WITH LOW-CLOUDS
AND/OR DENSE FOG. LIKELY TO SEE -DZ ALONG THE E-SHORE TERMINALS
TOWARDS SATURDAY MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WILL HOLD LOW-END VFR FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST. COULD SEE CONDITIONS GRADUALLY LOWER
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. E-FLOW PERSISTING THROUGHOUT AND
INCREASING TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD...THUS LENDING TO
CONFIDENCE MORE SO OF MVFR-IFR LOW-CLOUDS OVER DENSE FOG WITH -DZ.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TO
LOWER INTO EVENING WITH INCREASING -SHRA CHANCES. MAY REMAIN
SOCKED IN AROUND MVFR THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
ALL THE WAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY FOG WITH BRIEF
LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

NE-WINDS INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO INTERIOR LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING
SE ACROSS THE WATERS WITH SOME MILD STRENGTHENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE N. SUBSEQUENT PRESSURE-GRADIENT MAY YIELD SOME
DECENT FETCH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS TO CAUSE SEAS TO RISE...BUT
WILL HOLD AT 4 FEET. FEEL BRISK WINDS WILL DIMINISH FOG POTENTIAL
YET LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAY BE AN ISSUE FOR AREAS TOWARDS THE
SW.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT E SWELLS COULD BUILD CLOSE TO 5 FT ON THE
OUTER WATERS THIS WEEKEND WITH LONG E FETCH...EVEN WITH WIND SPEEDS
LESS THAN 15 KT. MAY SEE PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES
EACH NIGHT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/EVT
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/EVT
MARINE...SIPPRELL/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 211800
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
200 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS THIS WEEKEND. A WARM-UP
IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK PRIOR TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

2 PM UPDATE...

NOT AN EASY MORNING FORECAST AND ONE IN WHICH THE MODELS DID NOT
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON...AND NEITHER DID I. BAND OF RAIN PRESENTLY
SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION APPEARS FOCUSED ALONG A LEADING EDGE OF
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND F-GEN FORCING AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE AND SUBSEQUENT ASCENT PINWHEELING ROUND THE BROADER LOW
OVER THE E GREAT LAKES. ANYTHING GOES WITH MODEST LIFT OF MOISTURE
ADVECTED THROUGH A DECENT LOW-LEVEL THETA-E PLUME AHEAD OF THE
LOW.

WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS TOWARDS THE NE DIMINISHING AGAINST
THE RIDGE AND DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUTOFF HIGH. ACTIVITY
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS PA/NY. AS THE WEAKENING LOW SHIFTS SE
AS AN OPEN WAVE...WILL FOCUS GREATER CHANCES FOR PRECIP TOWARDS
THE S/W AS ACTIVITY SHIFTS TOWARDS BETTER THERMAL AND INSTABILITY
AXES. IT IS HERE THE COMBINATION OF ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
AND THE MOIST TONGUE OF CONVERGENT THETA-E AIR SHOULD COLLOCATE TO
YIELD SHOWER ACTIVITY...EVEN THOUGH THE BETTER ACTIVITY WILL BE SW
ACROSS THE NYC TRI-STATE REGION AND CLOSER TO THE SURFACE WARM-
FRONT.

STILL HOLDING WITH HIGHS AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-70S. THE WARMEST
OF CONDITIONS TOWARDS THE S/E WITH THE GREATER ABUNDANCE OF

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...

TONIGHT...
SLIGHTLY INCREASED THREAT FOR OVERNIGHT SHOWERS...BUT STILL MAINLY
ACROSS THE W THANKS TO SOME LEFTOVER SUBSIDENCE CLOSER TO THE
GRADUALLY REBOUNDING INVERTED RIDGE. THE REMNANT VORT MAX FROM AN
UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. JET ENERGY THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN IS WEAK AND WHAT
IS LEFT OF A SFC WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY HAVE WASHED OUT FOR MOST
PART. THEREFORE...IT IS ONLY THE VORT MAX WHICH WILL BE PROVIDING
LIFT TO WORK ON THE 1.5 OR LESS PWAT AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION. DRIER AIR STILL REMAINS MAINLY ACROSS THE E...SO WILL
ONCE AGAIN FOCUS MAINLY FROM THE WORCESTER HILLS AND POINTS W FOR
THE SHOWERS. NO THUNDER WITH THIS UPDATE...AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS
QUITE STABLE THROUGHOUT. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE QPF
BULLSEYES THAT IT WAS SHOWING IN PREVIOUS RUNS FOR THE MOST
PART...BUT THESE ARE LIKELY JUST A CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUE.
OTHERWISE...MILD OVERNIGHT MINS WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER.
MAY NEED TO ALSO MONITOR ESPECIALLY THE E AND SE COASTLINES FOR
FOG AND STRATUS THANKS TO CONTINUED E FLOW AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
DWPTS WITHIN THE MOISTENED COLUMN IN COMPARISON TO PREVIOUS DAYS.

FRIDAY...
UPPER LVL VORT MAX SLIDES TO THE SE DURING THE MORNING...COMBINING
WITH LEFTOVER CUTOFF ENERGY ACROSS ATLANTIC CANADA. WHILE THIS
WILL FORM A HANGING TROF WITH AXIS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...MID LVL RIDGING WILL THEN BE ABLE TO REGAIN
CONTROL INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW THE INVERTED
RIDGE TO BUILD BACK IN ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE COLUMN DRIES FROM INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. HAVE POPS DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL LIKELY TAKE A BIT MORE
TIME FOR THE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE GIVEN MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO BE
TRAPPED BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND E FLOW CONTINUES.
IN FACT...LOOKS LIKE AN UPPER LVL BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL LEAD
TO DECREASING H85 TEMPS. HAVE HELD HIGHS BACK...MAINLY IN THE 60S
TO AROUND 70. E COASTAL REGIONS ARE LIKELY TO TAKE THE LONGEST TO
SEE ANY CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING
  FRONT

21/00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY. THEN
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARISE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...
MAKING FOR A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST FROM THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
ONWARD.

A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY MAKE
ITS WAY EAST...MOVING JUST OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRIES TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN USA. THIS UPPER
TROUGH IS RATHER PERSISTENT THOUGH...WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN
LINGERING THIS TROUGH OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC LONGER AND LONGER.

COOLER...LESS SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IN
QUEBEC WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY DRY. STILL AGREE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THINKING 21/00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE
WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH...KEPT A DRY
FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

A HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY
MOVING SOUTH AND EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND RETURNING US TO A
MORE WESTERLY FLOW. A LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE
EAST INTO QUEBEC...SWINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THIS IS WHERE MODELS START TO DIVERGE
MORE SIGNIFICANTLY.

THE ECMWF LOOKS A BIT QUICKER THAN THE GFS WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS
FRONT...BUT NEITHER IS AS PROGRESSIVE AS THE CANADIAN. WILL TAKE A
BLENDED APPROACH WITH THE TIMING FOR NOW.  GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE COAST...WOULD NOT BE OVERLY
SURPRISED IF THE ULTIMATE TIMING TURNS OUT TO BE SLOWER THAN THE
GFS. DEPENDING ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE...WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR INTO THIS EVENING. BUT AS E-ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AND SHOWERS
BUILD OVER THE S/W NEW ENGLAND TERMINALS...GREATER PROPENSITY FOR
A MIX OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. UNSURE AS
TO OUTCOMES E/SE. ITS POSSIBLE THE REGION REMAINS VFR ALBEIT SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH EVENING
COOLING.

INTO THE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD...ANTICIPATING LOW-END
VFR CLOUDS MIXED IN WITH MVFR AND SHOWERS TO THE S/W. E-WINDS
CONTINUING WITH A LONG FETCH OFF THE WATERS. TRANSITIONING INTO
EVENING...WHILE SHOWERS CONCLUDE...A MAJORITY OF THE TERMINALS
MAY BECOME SOCKED IN WITH LOW-CLOUDS AND DENSE FOG. LIKELY TO SEE
-DZ WITH FOG.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WILL HOLD LOW-END VFR FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST. COULD SEE CONDITIONS GRADUALLY LOWER
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. E-FLOW PERSISTING THROUGHOUT AND
INCREASING TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD...THUS LENDING TO
CONFIDENCE MORE SO OF MVFR-IFR LOW-CLOUDS OVER DENSE FOG.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TO
LOWER INTO EVENING WITH INCREASING -SHRA CHANCES. MAY REMAIN
SOCKED IN AROUND MVFR THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
ALL THE WAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG EACH
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

LOW PRES WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
THEN MOVE E INTO FRI. A FEW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO IMPACT MAINLY
THE WATERS S OF THE VINEYARD AND ACK INTO MID DAY UNTIL THE LOW
MOVES FURTHER E. THE WEAK LOW PRES WILL ALSO GENERATE A MODEST
SWELL...BUT IT SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 4 FT INTO THE DAY ON
FRI. WINDS TOO MAY GUST TO ABOUT 15-20 KT AT TIMES OUT OF THE
E...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS COULD APPROACH 5
FT ACROSS THE OUTERMOST SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND. NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THOUGH. LOW
PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 211407
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1007 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS THIS WEEKEND. A WARM-UP
IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK PRIOR TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

10 AM UPDATE...

ONE GIANT MESS. CLOSED LOW OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TRANSITIONING AS
AN OPEN WAVE AS IT WEAKENS. NOTED WELL BY THE PRIOR FORECASTER...
LINGERING ENERGY PROVIDING MODEST LIFT THROUGH WEAK DIFFERENTIAL
VORTICITY ADVECTION UPON AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS LENDING TO SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN A WEAK FLOW REGIME. THIS DESPITE
THE WARM-FRONT HELD UP TO THE W BY DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A
CUT-OFF HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SUSTAINED BY THE NEIGHBORING LOW SE
AND WELL OFFSHORE. AIR HAS TO SINK SOMEWHERE. THE WEAK ISENTROPIC
FLOW FROM THE SW IS ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE LOADING WITHIN THE MID-
LEVELS UP AGAINST THE DRIER AIR CLEARLY EVIDENT WITHIN MESORAP
H925-85 FIELDS AND 12Z CHATHAM/PORTLAND SOUNDINGS.

PRESENT ACTIVITY APPEARS FOCUSED ALONG THE CONVERGENT NOSE OF A
H85 PLUME PER MESORAP AND COLLOCATED WITH STRETCHED MID-LEVEL
ENERGY. FEEL THIS AREA OF ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING
HOURS TOWARDS THE NE ERODING INTO THE DRIER AIR AND GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING AS THE OPEN- WAVE LOW AND MAIN CRUX OF ENERGY SHIFTS
SE ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING TO BUILD SW. AS TO THE WEAKENING
LOW...DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ANTICIPATING ATTENDANT
ENERGY THAT DEVELOPS OVER PA/NY THIS AFTERNOON TO SHIFT SE TOWARDS
BETTER THERMAL/INSTABILITY AXES.

HRRR- AND WRF-MODEL SOLUTIONS MAY HAVE THE RIGHT IDEA WITH REGARDS
TO TRENDS...BUT THE 21.06Z NAM DOES NOT LOOK TOO BAD WITH THE
ENERGY SHIFT TO THE SE. ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS SHOW A SIMILAR TREND AS
TO THE NAM...KEEPING ACTIVITY NE LIGHT BENEATH BUILDING INFLUENCE
OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. WILL KEEP THE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION
ALONG A NE-SW LINE W OF THE WORCESTER HILLS WITH HIGHEST CHANCES
OVER THE CT-VALLEY TO THE W. CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
MOIST-ADIABATIC PROFILES AND DEEP-LAYER / OROGRAPHIC FORCING. HAVE
INSERTED ISOLATED THUNDER. FEEL ONGOING ACTIVITY WILL LIFT NE AND
LESSEN INTO THE REALM OF DRIER AIR. HAVE DONE THE BEST TO TIME OUT
POPS ACCORDINGLY ALONG WITH AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND
0.3 INCHES.

LOTS OF CLOUD COVER AND WET WEATHER. WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES AROUND
THE LOW-70S...QUITE UNSEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY/...

TONIGHT...
SLIGHTLY INCREASED THREAT FOR OVERNIGHT SHOWERS...BUT STILL MAINLY
ACROSS THE W THANKS TO SOME LEFTOVER SUBSIDENCE CLOSER TO THE
GRADUALLY REBOUNDING INVERTED RIDGE. THE REMNANT VORT MAX FROM AN
UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. JET ENERGY THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN IS WEAK AND WHAT
IS LEFT OF A SFC WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY HAVE WASHED OUT FOR MOST
PART. THEREFORE...IT IS ONLY THE VORT MAX WHICH WILL BE PROVIDING
LIFT TO WORK ON THE 1.5 OR LESS PWAT AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION. DRIER AIR STILL REMAINS MAINLY ACROSS THE E...SO WILL
ONCE AGAIN FOCUS MAINLY FROM THE WORCESTER HILLS AND POINTS W FOR
THE SHOWERS. NO THUNDER WITH THIS UPDATE...AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS
QUITE STABLE THROUGHOUT. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE QPF
BULLSEYES THAT IT WAS SHOWING IN PREVIOUS RUNS FOR THE MOST
PART...BUT THESE ARE LIKELY JUST A CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUE.
OTHERWISE...MILD OVERNIGHT MINS WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER.
MAY NEED TO ALSO MONITOR ESPECIALLY THE E AND SE COASTLINES FOR
FOG AND STRATUS THANKS TO CONTINUED E FLOW AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
DWPTS WITHIN THE MOISTENED COLUMN IN COMPARISON TO PREVIOUS DAYS.

FRIDAY...
UPPER LVL VORT MAX SLIDES TO THE SE DURING THE MORNING...COMBINING
WITH LEFTOVER CUTOFF ENERGY ACROSS ATLANTIC CANADA. WHILE THIS
WILL FORM A HANGING TROF WITH AXIS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...MID LVL RIDGING WILL THEN BE ABLE TO REGAIN
CONTROL INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW THE INVERTED
RIDGE TO BUILD BACK IN ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE COLUMN DRIES FROM INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. HAVE POPS DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL LIKELY TAKE A BIT MORE
TIME FOR THE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE GIVEN MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO BE
TRAPPED BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND E FLOW CONTINUES.
IN FACT...LOOKS LIKE AN UPPER LVL BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL LEAD
TO DECREASING H85 TEMPS. HAVE HELD HIGHS BACK...MAINLY IN THE 60S
TO AROUND 70. E COASTAL REGIONS ARE LIKELY TO TAKE THE LONGEST TO
SEE ANY CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING
  FRONT

21/00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY. THEN
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARISE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...
MAKING FOR A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST FROM THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
ONWARD.

A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY MAKE
ITS WAY EAST...MOVING JUST OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRIES TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN USA. THIS UPPER
TROUGH IS RATHER PERSISTENT THOUGH...WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN
LINGERING THIS TROUGH OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC LONGER AND LONGER.

COOLER...LESS SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IN
QUEBEC WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY DRY. STILL AGREE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THINKING 21/00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE
WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH...KEPT A DRY
FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

A HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY
MOVING SOUTH AND EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND RETURNING US TO A
MORE WESTERLY FLOW. A LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE
EAST INTO QUEBEC...SWINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THIS IS WHERE MODELS START TO DIVERGE
MORE SIGNIFICANTLY.

THE ECMWF LOOKS A BIT QUICKER THAN THE GFS WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS
FRONT...BUT NEITHER IS AS PROGRESSIVE AS THE CANADIAN. WILL TAKE A
BLENDED APPROACH WITH THE TIMING FOR NOW.  GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE COAST...WOULD NOT BE OVERLY
SURPRISED IF THE ULTIMATE TIMING TURNS OUT TO BE SLOWER THAN THE
GFS. DEPENDING ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE...WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...
MAINLY VFR. EXCEPT POSSIBLY FOR KACK...MOST OF THE RAIN REMAINS
TO THE W THROUGH THE DAY. THEN...BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
WRN MA/CT/NH OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SOME LOW MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
E COAST.

FRI...
CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY. SOME MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING GIVES WAY TO VFR THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MAY TAKE MOST OF
THE DAY ALONG THE E COAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAIN CONCERN IS WHETHER A
BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS MOVE IN EARLY THIS MORNING
BRIEFLY...AND THEN RETURNS LATE THU NIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR WITH E
FLOW ASSISTED BY SEABREEZES EXPECTED.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. -RA CHANCES BEGIN TOWARDS
THURSDAY MORNING ALONG WITH LOW-END VFR CIGS. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
THOUGH MAINLY TONIGHT...BUT REMAINS LOW-CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG EACH
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

LOW PRES WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
THEN MOVE E INTO FRI. A FEW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO IMPACT MAINLY
THE WATERS S OF THE VINEYARD AND ACK INTO MID DAY UNTIL THE LOW
MOVES FURTHER E. THE WEAK LOW PRES WILL ALSO GENERATE A MODEST
SWELL...BUT IT SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 4 FT INTO THE DAY ON
FRI. WINDS TOO MAY GUST TO ABOUT 15-20 KT AT TIMES OUT OF THE
E...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS COULD APPROACH 5
FT ACROSS THE OUTERMOST SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND. NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THOUGH. LOW
PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 211407
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1007 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS THIS WEEKEND. A WARM-UP
IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK PRIOR TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

10 AM UPDATE...

ONE GIANT MESS. CLOSED LOW OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TRANSITIONING AS
AN OPEN WAVE AS IT WEAKENS. NOTED WELL BY THE PRIOR FORECASTER...
LINGERING ENERGY PROVIDING MODEST LIFT THROUGH WEAK DIFFERENTIAL
VORTICITY ADVECTION UPON AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS LENDING TO SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN A WEAK FLOW REGIME. THIS DESPITE
THE WARM-FRONT HELD UP TO THE W BY DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A
CUT-OFF HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SUSTAINED BY THE NEIGHBORING LOW SE
AND WELL OFFSHORE. AIR HAS TO SINK SOMEWHERE. THE WEAK ISENTROPIC
FLOW FROM THE SW IS ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE LOADING WITHIN THE MID-
LEVELS UP AGAINST THE DRIER AIR CLEARLY EVIDENT WITHIN MESORAP
H925-85 FIELDS AND 12Z CHATHAM/PORTLAND SOUNDINGS.

PRESENT ACTIVITY APPEARS FOCUSED ALONG THE CONVERGENT NOSE OF A
H85 PLUME PER MESORAP AND COLLOCATED WITH STRETCHED MID-LEVEL
ENERGY. FEEL THIS AREA OF ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING
HOURS TOWARDS THE NE ERODING INTO THE DRIER AIR AND GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING AS THE OPEN- WAVE LOW AND MAIN CRUX OF ENERGY SHIFTS
SE ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING TO BUILD SW. AS TO THE WEAKENING
LOW...DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ANTICIPATING ATTENDANT
ENERGY THAT DEVELOPS OVER PA/NY THIS AFTERNOON TO SHIFT SE TOWARDS
BETTER THERMAL/INSTABILITY AXES.

HRRR- AND WRF-MODEL SOLUTIONS MAY HAVE THE RIGHT IDEA WITH REGARDS
TO TRENDS...BUT THE 21.06Z NAM DOES NOT LOOK TOO BAD WITH THE
ENERGY SHIFT TO THE SE. ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS SHOW A SIMILAR TREND AS
TO THE NAM...KEEPING ACTIVITY NE LIGHT BENEATH BUILDING INFLUENCE
OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. WILL KEEP THE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION
ALONG A NE-SW LINE W OF THE WORCESTER HILLS WITH HIGHEST CHANCES
OVER THE CT-VALLEY TO THE W. CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
MOIST-ADIABATIC PROFILES AND DEEP-LAYER / OROGRAPHIC FORCING. HAVE
INSERTED ISOLATED THUNDER. FEEL ONGOING ACTIVITY WILL LIFT NE AND
LESSEN INTO THE REALM OF DRIER AIR. HAVE DONE THE BEST TO TIME OUT
POPS ACCORDINGLY ALONG WITH AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND
0.3 INCHES.

LOTS OF CLOUD COVER AND WET WEATHER. WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES AROUND
THE LOW-70S...QUITE UNSEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY/...

TONIGHT...
SLIGHTLY INCREASED THREAT FOR OVERNIGHT SHOWERS...BUT STILL MAINLY
ACROSS THE W THANKS TO SOME LEFTOVER SUBSIDENCE CLOSER TO THE
GRADUALLY REBOUNDING INVERTED RIDGE. THE REMNANT VORT MAX FROM AN
UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. JET ENERGY THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN IS WEAK AND WHAT
IS LEFT OF A SFC WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY HAVE WASHED OUT FOR MOST
PART. THEREFORE...IT IS ONLY THE VORT MAX WHICH WILL BE PROVIDING
LIFT TO WORK ON THE 1.5 OR LESS PWAT AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION. DRIER AIR STILL REMAINS MAINLY ACROSS THE E...SO WILL
ONCE AGAIN FOCUS MAINLY FROM THE WORCESTER HILLS AND POINTS W FOR
THE SHOWERS. NO THUNDER WITH THIS UPDATE...AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS
QUITE STABLE THROUGHOUT. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE QPF
BULLSEYES THAT IT WAS SHOWING IN PREVIOUS RUNS FOR THE MOST
PART...BUT THESE ARE LIKELY JUST A CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUE.
OTHERWISE...MILD OVERNIGHT MINS WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER.
MAY NEED TO ALSO MONITOR ESPECIALLY THE E AND SE COASTLINES FOR
FOG AND STRATUS THANKS TO CONTINUED E FLOW AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
DWPTS WITHIN THE MOISTENED COLUMN IN COMPARISON TO PREVIOUS DAYS.

FRIDAY...
UPPER LVL VORT MAX SLIDES TO THE SE DURING THE MORNING...COMBINING
WITH LEFTOVER CUTOFF ENERGY ACROSS ATLANTIC CANADA. WHILE THIS
WILL FORM A HANGING TROF WITH AXIS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...MID LVL RIDGING WILL THEN BE ABLE TO REGAIN
CONTROL INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW THE INVERTED
RIDGE TO BUILD BACK IN ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE COLUMN DRIES FROM INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. HAVE POPS DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL LIKELY TAKE A BIT MORE
TIME FOR THE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE GIVEN MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO BE
TRAPPED BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND E FLOW CONTINUES.
IN FACT...LOOKS LIKE AN UPPER LVL BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL LEAD
TO DECREASING H85 TEMPS. HAVE HELD HIGHS BACK...MAINLY IN THE 60S
TO AROUND 70. E COASTAL REGIONS ARE LIKELY TO TAKE THE LONGEST TO
SEE ANY CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING
  FRONT

21/00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY. THEN
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARISE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...
MAKING FOR A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST FROM THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
ONWARD.

A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY MAKE
ITS WAY EAST...MOVING JUST OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRIES TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN USA. THIS UPPER
TROUGH IS RATHER PERSISTENT THOUGH...WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN
LINGERING THIS TROUGH OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC LONGER AND LONGER.

COOLER...LESS SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IN
QUEBEC WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY DRY. STILL AGREE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THINKING 21/00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE
WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH...KEPT A DRY
FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

A HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY
MOVING SOUTH AND EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND RETURNING US TO A
MORE WESTERLY FLOW. A LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE
EAST INTO QUEBEC...SWINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THIS IS WHERE MODELS START TO DIVERGE
MORE SIGNIFICANTLY.

THE ECMWF LOOKS A BIT QUICKER THAN THE GFS WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS
FRONT...BUT NEITHER IS AS PROGRESSIVE AS THE CANADIAN. WILL TAKE A
BLENDED APPROACH WITH THE TIMING FOR NOW.  GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE COAST...WOULD NOT BE OVERLY
SURPRISED IF THE ULTIMATE TIMING TURNS OUT TO BE SLOWER THAN THE
GFS. DEPENDING ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE...WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...
MAINLY VFR. EXCEPT POSSIBLY FOR KACK...MOST OF THE RAIN REMAINS
TO THE W THROUGH THE DAY. THEN...BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
WRN MA/CT/NH OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SOME LOW MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
E COAST.

FRI...
CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY. SOME MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING GIVES WAY TO VFR THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MAY TAKE MOST OF
THE DAY ALONG THE E COAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAIN CONCERN IS WHETHER A
BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS MOVE IN EARLY THIS MORNING
BRIEFLY...AND THEN RETURNS LATE THU NIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR WITH E
FLOW ASSISTED BY SEABREEZES EXPECTED.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. -RA CHANCES BEGIN TOWARDS
THURSDAY MORNING ALONG WITH LOW-END VFR CIGS. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
THOUGH MAINLY TONIGHT...BUT REMAINS LOW-CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG EACH
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

LOW PRES WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
THEN MOVE E INTO FRI. A FEW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO IMPACT MAINLY
THE WATERS S OF THE VINEYARD AND ACK INTO MID DAY UNTIL THE LOW
MOVES FURTHER E. THE WEAK LOW PRES WILL ALSO GENERATE A MODEST
SWELL...BUT IT SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 4 FT INTO THE DAY ON
FRI. WINDS TOO MAY GUST TO ABOUT 15-20 KT AT TIMES OUT OF THE
E...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS COULD APPROACH 5
FT ACROSS THE OUTERMOST SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND. NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THOUGH. LOW
PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 211407
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1007 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS THIS WEEKEND. A WARM-UP
IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK PRIOR TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

10 AM UPDATE...

ONE GIANT MESS. CLOSED LOW OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TRANSITIONING AS
AN OPEN WAVE AS IT WEAKENS. NOTED WELL BY THE PRIOR FORECASTER...
LINGERING ENERGY PROVIDING MODEST LIFT THROUGH WEAK DIFFERENTIAL
VORTICITY ADVECTION UPON AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS LENDING TO SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN A WEAK FLOW REGIME. THIS DESPITE
THE WARM-FRONT HELD UP TO THE W BY DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A
CUT-OFF HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SUSTAINED BY THE NEIGHBORING LOW SE
AND WELL OFFSHORE. AIR HAS TO SINK SOMEWHERE. THE WEAK ISENTROPIC
FLOW FROM THE SW IS ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE LOADING WITHIN THE MID-
LEVELS UP AGAINST THE DRIER AIR CLEARLY EVIDENT WITHIN MESORAP
H925-85 FIELDS AND 12Z CHATHAM/PORTLAND SOUNDINGS.

PRESENT ACTIVITY APPEARS FOCUSED ALONG THE CONVERGENT NOSE OF A
H85 PLUME PER MESORAP AND COLLOCATED WITH STRETCHED MID-LEVEL
ENERGY. FEEL THIS AREA OF ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING
HOURS TOWARDS THE NE ERODING INTO THE DRIER AIR AND GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING AS THE OPEN- WAVE LOW AND MAIN CRUX OF ENERGY SHIFTS
SE ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING TO BUILD SW. AS TO THE WEAKENING
LOW...DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ANTICIPATING ATTENDANT
ENERGY THAT DEVELOPS OVER PA/NY THIS AFTERNOON TO SHIFT SE TOWARDS
BETTER THERMAL/INSTABILITY AXES.

HRRR- AND WRF-MODEL SOLUTIONS MAY HAVE THE RIGHT IDEA WITH REGARDS
TO TRENDS...BUT THE 21.06Z NAM DOES NOT LOOK TOO BAD WITH THE
ENERGY SHIFT TO THE SE. ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS SHOW A SIMILAR TREND AS
TO THE NAM...KEEPING ACTIVITY NE LIGHT BENEATH BUILDING INFLUENCE
OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. WILL KEEP THE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION
ALONG A NE-SW LINE W OF THE WORCESTER HILLS WITH HIGHEST CHANCES
OVER THE CT-VALLEY TO THE W. CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
MOIST-ADIABATIC PROFILES AND DEEP-LAYER / OROGRAPHIC FORCING. HAVE
INSERTED ISOLATED THUNDER. FEEL ONGOING ACTIVITY WILL LIFT NE AND
LESSEN INTO THE REALM OF DRIER AIR. HAVE DONE THE BEST TO TIME OUT
POPS ACCORDINGLY ALONG WITH AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND
0.3 INCHES.

LOTS OF CLOUD COVER AND WET WEATHER. WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES AROUND
THE LOW-70S...QUITE UNSEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY/...

TONIGHT...
SLIGHTLY INCREASED THREAT FOR OVERNIGHT SHOWERS...BUT STILL MAINLY
ACROSS THE W THANKS TO SOME LEFTOVER SUBSIDENCE CLOSER TO THE
GRADUALLY REBOUNDING INVERTED RIDGE. THE REMNANT VORT MAX FROM AN
UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. JET ENERGY THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN IS WEAK AND WHAT
IS LEFT OF A SFC WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY HAVE WASHED OUT FOR MOST
PART. THEREFORE...IT IS ONLY THE VORT MAX WHICH WILL BE PROVIDING
LIFT TO WORK ON THE 1.5 OR LESS PWAT AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION. DRIER AIR STILL REMAINS MAINLY ACROSS THE E...SO WILL
ONCE AGAIN FOCUS MAINLY FROM THE WORCESTER HILLS AND POINTS W FOR
THE SHOWERS. NO THUNDER WITH THIS UPDATE...AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS
QUITE STABLE THROUGHOUT. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE QPF
BULLSEYES THAT IT WAS SHOWING IN PREVIOUS RUNS FOR THE MOST
PART...BUT THESE ARE LIKELY JUST A CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUE.
OTHERWISE...MILD OVERNIGHT MINS WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER.
MAY NEED TO ALSO MONITOR ESPECIALLY THE E AND SE COASTLINES FOR
FOG AND STRATUS THANKS TO CONTINUED E FLOW AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
DWPTS WITHIN THE MOISTENED COLUMN IN COMPARISON TO PREVIOUS DAYS.

FRIDAY...
UPPER LVL VORT MAX SLIDES TO THE SE DURING THE MORNING...COMBINING
WITH LEFTOVER CUTOFF ENERGY ACROSS ATLANTIC CANADA. WHILE THIS
WILL FORM A HANGING TROF WITH AXIS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...MID LVL RIDGING WILL THEN BE ABLE TO REGAIN
CONTROL INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW THE INVERTED
RIDGE TO BUILD BACK IN ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE COLUMN DRIES FROM INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. HAVE POPS DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL LIKELY TAKE A BIT MORE
TIME FOR THE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE GIVEN MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO BE
TRAPPED BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND E FLOW CONTINUES.
IN FACT...LOOKS LIKE AN UPPER LVL BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL LEAD
TO DECREASING H85 TEMPS. HAVE HELD HIGHS BACK...MAINLY IN THE 60S
TO AROUND 70. E COASTAL REGIONS ARE LIKELY TO TAKE THE LONGEST TO
SEE ANY CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING
  FRONT

21/00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY. THEN
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARISE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...
MAKING FOR A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST FROM THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
ONWARD.

A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY MAKE
ITS WAY EAST...MOVING JUST OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRIES TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN USA. THIS UPPER
TROUGH IS RATHER PERSISTENT THOUGH...WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN
LINGERING THIS TROUGH OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC LONGER AND LONGER.

COOLER...LESS SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IN
QUEBEC WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY DRY. STILL AGREE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THINKING 21/00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE
WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH...KEPT A DRY
FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

A HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY
MOVING SOUTH AND EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND RETURNING US TO A
MORE WESTERLY FLOW. A LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE
EAST INTO QUEBEC...SWINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THIS IS WHERE MODELS START TO DIVERGE
MORE SIGNIFICANTLY.

THE ECMWF LOOKS A BIT QUICKER THAN THE GFS WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS
FRONT...BUT NEITHER IS AS PROGRESSIVE AS THE CANADIAN. WILL TAKE A
BLENDED APPROACH WITH THE TIMING FOR NOW.  GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE COAST...WOULD NOT BE OVERLY
SURPRISED IF THE ULTIMATE TIMING TURNS OUT TO BE SLOWER THAN THE
GFS. DEPENDING ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE...WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...
MAINLY VFR. EXCEPT POSSIBLY FOR KACK...MOST OF THE RAIN REMAINS
TO THE W THROUGH THE DAY. THEN...BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
WRN MA/CT/NH OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SOME LOW MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
E COAST.

FRI...
CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY. SOME MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING GIVES WAY TO VFR THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MAY TAKE MOST OF
THE DAY ALONG THE E COAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAIN CONCERN IS WHETHER A
BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS MOVE IN EARLY THIS MORNING
BRIEFLY...AND THEN RETURNS LATE THU NIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR WITH E
FLOW ASSISTED BY SEABREEZES EXPECTED.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. -RA CHANCES BEGIN TOWARDS
THURSDAY MORNING ALONG WITH LOW-END VFR CIGS. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
THOUGH MAINLY TONIGHT...BUT REMAINS LOW-CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG EACH
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

LOW PRES WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
THEN MOVE E INTO FRI. A FEW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO IMPACT MAINLY
THE WATERS S OF THE VINEYARD AND ACK INTO MID DAY UNTIL THE LOW
MOVES FURTHER E. THE WEAK LOW PRES WILL ALSO GENERATE A MODEST
SWELL...BUT IT SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 4 FT INTO THE DAY ON
FRI. WINDS TOO MAY GUST TO ABOUT 15-20 KT AT TIMES OUT OF THE
E...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS COULD APPROACH 5
FT ACROSS THE OUTERMOST SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND. NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THOUGH. LOW
PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 211407
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1007 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS THIS WEEKEND. A WARM-UP
IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK PRIOR TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

10 AM UPDATE...

ONE GIANT MESS. CLOSED LOW OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TRANSITIONING AS
AN OPEN WAVE AS IT WEAKENS. NOTED WELL BY THE PRIOR FORECASTER...
LINGERING ENERGY PROVIDING MODEST LIFT THROUGH WEAK DIFFERENTIAL
VORTICITY ADVECTION UPON AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS LENDING TO SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN A WEAK FLOW REGIME. THIS DESPITE
THE WARM-FRONT HELD UP TO THE W BY DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A
CUT-OFF HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SUSTAINED BY THE NEIGHBORING LOW SE
AND WELL OFFSHORE. AIR HAS TO SINK SOMEWHERE. THE WEAK ISENTROPIC
FLOW FROM THE SW IS ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE LOADING WITHIN THE MID-
LEVELS UP AGAINST THE DRIER AIR CLEARLY EVIDENT WITHIN MESORAP
H925-85 FIELDS AND 12Z CHATHAM/PORTLAND SOUNDINGS.

PRESENT ACTIVITY APPEARS FOCUSED ALONG THE CONVERGENT NOSE OF A
H85 PLUME PER MESORAP AND COLLOCATED WITH STRETCHED MID-LEVEL
ENERGY. FEEL THIS AREA OF ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING
HOURS TOWARDS THE NE ERODING INTO THE DRIER AIR AND GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING AS THE OPEN- WAVE LOW AND MAIN CRUX OF ENERGY SHIFTS
SE ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING TO BUILD SW. AS TO THE WEAKENING
LOW...DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ANTICIPATING ATTENDANT
ENERGY THAT DEVELOPS OVER PA/NY THIS AFTERNOON TO SHIFT SE TOWARDS
BETTER THERMAL/INSTABILITY AXES.

HRRR- AND WRF-MODEL SOLUTIONS MAY HAVE THE RIGHT IDEA WITH REGARDS
TO TRENDS...BUT THE 21.06Z NAM DOES NOT LOOK TOO BAD WITH THE
ENERGY SHIFT TO THE SE. ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS SHOW A SIMILAR TREND AS
TO THE NAM...KEEPING ACTIVITY NE LIGHT BENEATH BUILDING INFLUENCE
OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. WILL KEEP THE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION
ALONG A NE-SW LINE W OF THE WORCESTER HILLS WITH HIGHEST CHANCES
OVER THE CT-VALLEY TO THE W. CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
MOIST-ADIABATIC PROFILES AND DEEP-LAYER / OROGRAPHIC FORCING. HAVE
INSERTED ISOLATED THUNDER. FEEL ONGOING ACTIVITY WILL LIFT NE AND
LESSEN INTO THE REALM OF DRIER AIR. HAVE DONE THE BEST TO TIME OUT
POPS ACCORDINGLY ALONG WITH AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND
0.3 INCHES.

LOTS OF CLOUD COVER AND WET WEATHER. WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES AROUND
THE LOW-70S...QUITE UNSEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY/...

TONIGHT...
SLIGHTLY INCREASED THREAT FOR OVERNIGHT SHOWERS...BUT STILL MAINLY
ACROSS THE W THANKS TO SOME LEFTOVER SUBSIDENCE CLOSER TO THE
GRADUALLY REBOUNDING INVERTED RIDGE. THE REMNANT VORT MAX FROM AN
UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. JET ENERGY THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN IS WEAK AND WHAT
IS LEFT OF A SFC WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY HAVE WASHED OUT FOR MOST
PART. THEREFORE...IT IS ONLY THE VORT MAX WHICH WILL BE PROVIDING
LIFT TO WORK ON THE 1.5 OR LESS PWAT AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION. DRIER AIR STILL REMAINS MAINLY ACROSS THE E...SO WILL
ONCE AGAIN FOCUS MAINLY FROM THE WORCESTER HILLS AND POINTS W FOR
THE SHOWERS. NO THUNDER WITH THIS UPDATE...AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS
QUITE STABLE THROUGHOUT. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE QPF
BULLSEYES THAT IT WAS SHOWING IN PREVIOUS RUNS FOR THE MOST
PART...BUT THESE ARE LIKELY JUST A CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUE.
OTHERWISE...MILD OVERNIGHT MINS WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER.
MAY NEED TO ALSO MONITOR ESPECIALLY THE E AND SE COASTLINES FOR
FOG AND STRATUS THANKS TO CONTINUED E FLOW AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
DWPTS WITHIN THE MOISTENED COLUMN IN COMPARISON TO PREVIOUS DAYS.

FRIDAY...
UPPER LVL VORT MAX SLIDES TO THE SE DURING THE MORNING...COMBINING
WITH LEFTOVER CUTOFF ENERGY ACROSS ATLANTIC CANADA. WHILE THIS
WILL FORM A HANGING TROF WITH AXIS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...MID LVL RIDGING WILL THEN BE ABLE TO REGAIN
CONTROL INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW THE INVERTED
RIDGE TO BUILD BACK IN ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE COLUMN DRIES FROM INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. HAVE POPS DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL LIKELY TAKE A BIT MORE
TIME FOR THE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE GIVEN MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO BE
TRAPPED BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND E FLOW CONTINUES.
IN FACT...LOOKS LIKE AN UPPER LVL BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL LEAD
TO DECREASING H85 TEMPS. HAVE HELD HIGHS BACK...MAINLY IN THE 60S
TO AROUND 70. E COASTAL REGIONS ARE LIKELY TO TAKE THE LONGEST TO
SEE ANY CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING
  FRONT

21/00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY. THEN
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARISE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...
MAKING FOR A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST FROM THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
ONWARD.

A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY MAKE
ITS WAY EAST...MOVING JUST OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRIES TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN USA. THIS UPPER
TROUGH IS RATHER PERSISTENT THOUGH...WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN
LINGERING THIS TROUGH OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC LONGER AND LONGER.

COOLER...LESS SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IN
QUEBEC WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY DRY. STILL AGREE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THINKING 21/00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE
WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH...KEPT A DRY
FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

A HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY
MOVING SOUTH AND EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND RETURNING US TO A
MORE WESTERLY FLOW. A LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE
EAST INTO QUEBEC...SWINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THIS IS WHERE MODELS START TO DIVERGE
MORE SIGNIFICANTLY.

THE ECMWF LOOKS A BIT QUICKER THAN THE GFS WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS
FRONT...BUT NEITHER IS AS PROGRESSIVE AS THE CANADIAN. WILL TAKE A
BLENDED APPROACH WITH THE TIMING FOR NOW.  GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE COAST...WOULD NOT BE OVERLY
SURPRISED IF THE ULTIMATE TIMING TURNS OUT TO BE SLOWER THAN THE
GFS. DEPENDING ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE...WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...
MAINLY VFR. EXCEPT POSSIBLY FOR KACK...MOST OF THE RAIN REMAINS
TO THE W THROUGH THE DAY. THEN...BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
WRN MA/CT/NH OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SOME LOW MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
E COAST.

FRI...
CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY. SOME MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING GIVES WAY TO VFR THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MAY TAKE MOST OF
THE DAY ALONG THE E COAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAIN CONCERN IS WHETHER A
BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS MOVE IN EARLY THIS MORNING
BRIEFLY...AND THEN RETURNS LATE THU NIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR WITH E
FLOW ASSISTED BY SEABREEZES EXPECTED.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. -RA CHANCES BEGIN TOWARDS
THURSDAY MORNING ALONG WITH LOW-END VFR CIGS. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
THOUGH MAINLY TONIGHT...BUT REMAINS LOW-CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG EACH
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

LOW PRES WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
THEN MOVE E INTO FRI. A FEW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO IMPACT MAINLY
THE WATERS S OF THE VINEYARD AND ACK INTO MID DAY UNTIL THE LOW
MOVES FURTHER E. THE WEAK LOW PRES WILL ALSO GENERATE A MODEST
SWELL...BUT IT SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 4 FT INTO THE DAY ON
FRI. WINDS TOO MAY GUST TO ABOUT 15-20 KT AT TIMES OUT OF THE
E...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS COULD APPROACH 5
FT ACROSS THE OUTERMOST SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND. NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THOUGH. LOW
PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 211134
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
734 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS
THIS WEEKEND. A WARM-UP IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK PRIOR TO AN
UNSETTLED PATTERN AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPING SOUTH OUT
OF CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
730 AM UPDATE...

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST THIS MORNING.
PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG ALREADY DISSIPATING. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP QUICKLY ONCE MORE THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A TALE OF TWO LOW PRES SYSTEMS WILL DEFINE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY. ONE...AN UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY WEAKENING
AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN STALLED TO
THE W. THE OTHER IS A SLOWLY DEEPENING WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE E OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS LATTER FEATURE REMAINS WEAK...AND EXCEPT FOR AN INVERTED TROF
EVIDENT IN THE FLOW PATTERN HANGING BACK TOWARD THE ISLANDS...IS
EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON THE REGION. ONLY EXPECT A FEW
SHOWERS FOR MAINLY ACK THROUGH ABOUT THE AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME.

THE FORMER...THE UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN TOO AS
IT INTERACTS WITH A BLOCKED FLOW PATTERN AND CUTOFF HIGH PRES TO
THE N. IN FACT...IT WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION FROM A WEAK CUTOFF
TO AN OPEN WAVE THROUGH THE DAY. FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN ABOVE SRN
NEW ENGLAND REMAINS WEAK...WITH BOTH UPPER AND LOW LVL JET/S
REMAINING WELL TO THE W THROUGH THE DAY. THE APPROACHING WARM
FRONT AND MODEST LIFT PROVIDED BY WEAK DIFFERENTIAL VORT
ADVECTION FROM THE WAVE WILL PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR SHOWERY
ACTIVITY TO WORK ON A MOISTENING COLUMN MAINLY ACROSS CT AND WRN
MA/NH. THE INVERTED RIDGE ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION HAS
ALSO LED TO E FLOW WHICH WILL SUPPRESS ANY ATTEMPT AT
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE...WITH THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY REMAINING TO THE W...WILL KEEP
POPS FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS THE EXTREME W PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS
WELL AT LEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

REGARDING TEMPS...WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AND IN THE LOW-MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
SLIGHTLY INCREASED THREAT FOR OVERNIGHT SHOWERS...BUT STILL MAINLY
ACROSS THE W THANKS TO SOME LEFTOVER SUBSIDENCE CLOSER TO THE
GRADUALLY REBOUNDING INVERTED RIDGE. THE REMNANT VORT MAX FROM AN
UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. JET ENERGY THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN IS WEAK AND WHAT
IS LEFT OF A SFC WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY HAVE WASHED OUT FOR MOST
PART. THEREFORE...IT IS ONLY THE VORT MAX WHICH WILL BE PROVIDING
LIFT TO WORK ON THE 1.5 OR LESS PWAT AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION. DRIER AIR STILL REMAINS MAINLY ACROSS THE E...SO WILL
ONCE AGAIN FOCUS MAINLY FROM THE WORCESTER HILLS AND POINTS W FOR
THE SHOWERS. NO THUNDER WITH THIS UPDATE...AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS
QUITE STABLE THROUGHOUT. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE QPF
BULLSEYES THAT IT WAS SHOWING IN PREVIOUS RUNS FOR THE MOST
PART...BUT THESE ARE LIKELY JUST A CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUE.
OTHERWISE...MILD OVERNIGHT MINS WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER.
MAY NEED TO ALSO MONITOR ESPECIALLY THE E AND SE COASTLINES FOR
FOG AND STRATUS THANKS TO CONTINUED E FLOW AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
DWPTS WITHIN THE MOISTENED COLUMN IN COMPARISON TO PREVIOUS DAYS.

FRI...
UPPER LVL VORT MAX SLIDES TO THE SE DURING THE MORNING...COMBINING
WITH LEFTOVER CUTOFF ENERGY ACROSS ATLANTIC CANADA. WHILE THIS
WILL FORM A HANGING TROF WITH AXIS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...MID LVL RIDGING WILL THEN BE ABLE TO REGAIN
CONTROL INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW THE INVERTED
RIDGE TO BUILD BACK IN ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE COLUMN DRIES FROM INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. HAVE POPS DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL LIKELY TAKE A BIT MORE
TIME FOR THE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE GIVEN MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO BE
TRAPPED BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND E FLOW CONTINUES.
IN FACT...LOOKS LIKE AN UPPER LVL BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL LEAD
TO DECREASING H85 TEMPS. HAVE HELD HIGHS BACK...MAINLY IN THE 60S
TO AROUND 70. E COASTAL REGIONS ARE LIKELY TO TAKE THE LONGEST TO
SEE ANY CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING
  FRONT

21/00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY. THEN
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARISE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...
MAKING FOR A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST FROM THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
ONWARD.

A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY MAKE
ITS WAY EAST...MOVING JUST OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRIES TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN USA. THIS UPPER
TROUGH IS RATHER PERSISTENT THOUGH...WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN
LINGERING THIS TROUGH OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC LONGER AND LONGER.

COOLER...LESS SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IN
QUEBEC WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY DRY. STILL AGREE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THINKING 21/00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE
WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH...KEPT A DRY
FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

A HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY
MOVING SOUTH AND EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND RETURNING US TO A
MORE WESTERLY FLOW. A LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE
EAST INTO QUEBEC...SWINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THIS IS WHERE MODELS START TO DIVERGE
MORE SIGNIFICANTLY.

THE ECMWF LOOKS A BIT QUICKER THAN THE GFS WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS
FRONT...BUT NEITHER IS AS PROGRESSIVE AS THE CANADIAN. WILL TAKE A
BLENDED APPROACH WITH THE TIMING FOR NOW.  GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE COAST...WOULD NOT BE OVERLY
SURPRISED IF THE ULTIMATE TIMING TURNS OUT TO BE SLOWER THAN THE
GFS. DEPENDING ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE...WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...
MAINLY VFR. EXCEPT POSSIBLY FOR KACK...MOST OF THE RAIN REMAINS
TO THE W THROUGH THE DAY. THEN...BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
WRN MA/CT/NH OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SOME LOW MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
E COAST.

FRI...
CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY. SOME MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING GIVES WAY TO VFR THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MAY TAKE MOST OF
THE DAY ALONG THE E COAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAIN CONCERN IS WHETHER A
BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS MOVE IN EARLY THIS MORNING
BRIEFLY...AND THEN RETURNS LATE THU NIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR WITH E
FLOW ASSISTED BY SEABREEZES EXPECTED.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. -RA CHANCES BEGIN TOWARDS
THURSDAY MORNING ALONG WITH LOW-END VFR CIGS. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
THOUGH MAINLY TONIGHT...BUT REMAINS LOW-CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG EACH
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

LOW PRES WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
THEN MOVE E INTO FRI. A FEW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO IMPACT MAINLY
THE WATERS S OF THE VINEYARD AND ACK INTO MID DAY UNTIL THE LOW
MOVES FURTHER E. THE WEAK LOW PRES WILL ALSO GENERATE A MODEST
SWELL...BUT IT SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 4 FT INTO THE DAY ON
FRI. WINDS TOO MAY GUST TO ABOUT 15-20 KT AT TIMES OUT OF THE
E...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS COULD APPROACH 5
FT ACROSS THE OUTERMOST SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND. NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THOUGH. LOW
PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 211134
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
734 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS
THIS WEEKEND. A WARM-UP IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK PRIOR TO AN
UNSETTLED PATTERN AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPING SOUTH OUT
OF CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
730 AM UPDATE...

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST THIS MORNING.
PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG ALREADY DISSIPATING. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP QUICKLY ONCE MORE THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A TALE OF TWO LOW PRES SYSTEMS WILL DEFINE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY. ONE...AN UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY WEAKENING
AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN STALLED TO
THE W. THE OTHER IS A SLOWLY DEEPENING WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE E OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS LATTER FEATURE REMAINS WEAK...AND EXCEPT FOR AN INVERTED TROF
EVIDENT IN THE FLOW PATTERN HANGING BACK TOWARD THE ISLANDS...IS
EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON THE REGION. ONLY EXPECT A FEW
SHOWERS FOR MAINLY ACK THROUGH ABOUT THE AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME.

THE FORMER...THE UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN TOO AS
IT INTERACTS WITH A BLOCKED FLOW PATTERN AND CUTOFF HIGH PRES TO
THE N. IN FACT...IT WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION FROM A WEAK CUTOFF
TO AN OPEN WAVE THROUGH THE DAY. FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN ABOVE SRN
NEW ENGLAND REMAINS WEAK...WITH BOTH UPPER AND LOW LVL JET/S
REMAINING WELL TO THE W THROUGH THE DAY. THE APPROACHING WARM
FRONT AND MODEST LIFT PROVIDED BY WEAK DIFFERENTIAL VORT
ADVECTION FROM THE WAVE WILL PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR SHOWERY
ACTIVITY TO WORK ON A MOISTENING COLUMN MAINLY ACROSS CT AND WRN
MA/NH. THE INVERTED RIDGE ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION HAS
ALSO LED TO E FLOW WHICH WILL SUPPRESS ANY ATTEMPT AT
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE...WITH THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY REMAINING TO THE W...WILL KEEP
POPS FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS THE EXTREME W PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS
WELL AT LEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

REGARDING TEMPS...WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AND IN THE LOW-MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
SLIGHTLY INCREASED THREAT FOR OVERNIGHT SHOWERS...BUT STILL MAINLY
ACROSS THE W THANKS TO SOME LEFTOVER SUBSIDENCE CLOSER TO THE
GRADUALLY REBOUNDING INVERTED RIDGE. THE REMNANT VORT MAX FROM AN
UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. JET ENERGY THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN IS WEAK AND WHAT
IS LEFT OF A SFC WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY HAVE WASHED OUT FOR MOST
PART. THEREFORE...IT IS ONLY THE VORT MAX WHICH WILL BE PROVIDING
LIFT TO WORK ON THE 1.5 OR LESS PWAT AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION. DRIER AIR STILL REMAINS MAINLY ACROSS THE E...SO WILL
ONCE AGAIN FOCUS MAINLY FROM THE WORCESTER HILLS AND POINTS W FOR
THE SHOWERS. NO THUNDER WITH THIS UPDATE...AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS
QUITE STABLE THROUGHOUT. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE QPF
BULLSEYES THAT IT WAS SHOWING IN PREVIOUS RUNS FOR THE MOST
PART...BUT THESE ARE LIKELY JUST A CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUE.
OTHERWISE...MILD OVERNIGHT MINS WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER.
MAY NEED TO ALSO MONITOR ESPECIALLY THE E AND SE COASTLINES FOR
FOG AND STRATUS THANKS TO CONTINUED E FLOW AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
DWPTS WITHIN THE MOISTENED COLUMN IN COMPARISON TO PREVIOUS DAYS.

FRI...
UPPER LVL VORT MAX SLIDES TO THE SE DURING THE MORNING...COMBINING
WITH LEFTOVER CUTOFF ENERGY ACROSS ATLANTIC CANADA. WHILE THIS
WILL FORM A HANGING TROF WITH AXIS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...MID LVL RIDGING WILL THEN BE ABLE TO REGAIN
CONTROL INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW THE INVERTED
RIDGE TO BUILD BACK IN ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE COLUMN DRIES FROM INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. HAVE POPS DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL LIKELY TAKE A BIT MORE
TIME FOR THE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE GIVEN MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO BE
TRAPPED BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND E FLOW CONTINUES.
IN FACT...LOOKS LIKE AN UPPER LVL BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL LEAD
TO DECREASING H85 TEMPS. HAVE HELD HIGHS BACK...MAINLY IN THE 60S
TO AROUND 70. E COASTAL REGIONS ARE LIKELY TO TAKE THE LONGEST TO
SEE ANY CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING
  FRONT

21/00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY. THEN
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARISE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...
MAKING FOR A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST FROM THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
ONWARD.

A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY MAKE
ITS WAY EAST...MOVING JUST OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRIES TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN USA. THIS UPPER
TROUGH IS RATHER PERSISTENT THOUGH...WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN
LINGERING THIS TROUGH OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC LONGER AND LONGER.

COOLER...LESS SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IN
QUEBEC WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY DRY. STILL AGREE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THINKING 21/00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE
WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH...KEPT A DRY
FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

A HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY
MOVING SOUTH AND EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND RETURNING US TO A
MORE WESTERLY FLOW. A LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE
EAST INTO QUEBEC...SWINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THIS IS WHERE MODELS START TO DIVERGE
MORE SIGNIFICANTLY.

THE ECMWF LOOKS A BIT QUICKER THAN THE GFS WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS
FRONT...BUT NEITHER IS AS PROGRESSIVE AS THE CANADIAN. WILL TAKE A
BLENDED APPROACH WITH THE TIMING FOR NOW.  GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE COAST...WOULD NOT BE OVERLY
SURPRISED IF THE ULTIMATE TIMING TURNS OUT TO BE SLOWER THAN THE
GFS. DEPENDING ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE...WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...
MAINLY VFR. EXCEPT POSSIBLY FOR KACK...MOST OF THE RAIN REMAINS
TO THE W THROUGH THE DAY. THEN...BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
WRN MA/CT/NH OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SOME LOW MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
E COAST.

FRI...
CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY. SOME MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING GIVES WAY TO VFR THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MAY TAKE MOST OF
THE DAY ALONG THE E COAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAIN CONCERN IS WHETHER A
BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS MOVE IN EARLY THIS MORNING
BRIEFLY...AND THEN RETURNS LATE THU NIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR WITH E
FLOW ASSISTED BY SEABREEZES EXPECTED.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. -RA CHANCES BEGIN TOWARDS
THURSDAY MORNING ALONG WITH LOW-END VFR CIGS. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
THOUGH MAINLY TONIGHT...BUT REMAINS LOW-CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG EACH
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

LOW PRES WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
THEN MOVE E INTO FRI. A FEW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO IMPACT MAINLY
THE WATERS S OF THE VINEYARD AND ACK INTO MID DAY UNTIL THE LOW
MOVES FURTHER E. THE WEAK LOW PRES WILL ALSO GENERATE A MODEST
SWELL...BUT IT SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 4 FT INTO THE DAY ON
FRI. WINDS TOO MAY GUST TO ABOUT 15-20 KT AT TIMES OUT OF THE
E...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS COULD APPROACH 5
FT ACROSS THE OUTERMOST SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND. NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THOUGH. LOW
PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 210801
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
401 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS
THIS WEEKEND. A WARM-UP IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK PRIOR TO AN
UNSETTLED PATTERN AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPING SOUTH OUT
OF CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A TALE OF TWO LOW PRES SYSTEMS WILL DEFINE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY. ONE...AN UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY WEAKENING
AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN STALLED TO
THE W. THE OTHER IS A SLOWLY DEEPENING WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE E OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS LATTER FEATURE REMAINS WEAK...AND EXCEPT FOR AN INVERTED TROF
EVIDENT IN THE FLOW PATTERN HANGING BACK TOWARD THE ISLANDS...IS
EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON THE REGION. ONLY EXPECT A FEW
SHOWERS FOR MAINLY ACK THROUGH ABOUT THE AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME.

THE FORMER...THE UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN TOO AS
IT INTERACTS WITH A BLOCKED FLOW PATTERN AND CUTOFF HIGH PRES TO
THE N. IN FACT...IT WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION FROM A WEAK CUTOFF
TO AN OPEN WAVE THROUGH THE DAY. FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN ABOVE SRN
NEW ENGLAND REMAINS WEAK...WITH BOTH UPPER AND LOW LVL JET/S
REMAINING WELL TO THE W THROUGH THE DAY. THE APPROACHING WARM
FRONT AND MODEST LIFT PROVIDED BY WEAK DIFFERENTIAL VORT
ADVECTION FROM THE WAVE WILL PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR SHOWERY
ACTIVITY TO WORK ON A MOISTENING COLUMN MAINLY ACROSS CT AND WRN
MA/NH. THE INVERTED RIDGE ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION HAS
ALSO LED TO E FLOW WHICH WILL SUPPRESS ANY ATTEMPT AT
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE...WITH THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY REMAINING TO THE W...WILL KEEP
POPS FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS THE EXTREME W PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS
WELL AT LEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

REGARDING TEMPS...WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AND IN THE LOW-MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
SLIGHTLY INCREASED THREAT FOR OVERNIGHT SHOWERS...BUT STILL MAINLY
ACROSS THE W THANKS TO SOME LEFTOVER SUBSIDENCE CLOSER TO THE
GRADUALLY REBOUNDING INVERTED RIDGE. THE REMNANT VORT MAX FROM AN
UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. JET ENERGY THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN IS WEAK AND WHAT
IS LEFT OF A SFC WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY HAVE WASHED OUT FOR MOST
PART. THEREFORE...IT IS ONLY THE VORT MAX WHICH WILL BE PROVIDING
LIFT TO WORK ON THE 1.5 OR LESS PWAT AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION. DRIER AIR STILL REMAINS MAINLY ACROSS THE E...SO WILL
ONCE AGAIN FOCUS MAINLY FROM THE WORCESTER HILLS AND POINTS W FOR
THE SHOWERS. NO THUNDER WITH THIS UPDATE...AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS
QUITE STABLE THROUGHOUT. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE QPF
BULLSEYES THAT IT WAS SHOWING IN PREVIOUS RUNS FOR THE MOST
PART...BUT THESE ARE LIKELY JUST A CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUE.
OTHERWISE...MILD OVERNIGHT MINS WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER.
MAY NEED TO ALSO MONITOR ESPECIALLY THE E AND SE COASTLINES FOR
FOG AND STRATUS THANKS TO CONTINUED E FLOW AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
DWPTS WITHIN THE MOISTENED COLUMN IN COMPARISON TO PREVIOUS DAYS.

FRI...
UPPER LVL VORT MAX SLIDES TO THE SE DURING THE MORNING...COMBINING
WITH LEFTOVER CUTOFF ENERGY ACROSS ATLANTIC CANADA. WHILE THIS
WILL FORM A HANGING TROF WITH AXIS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...MID LVL RIDGING WILL THEN BE ABLE TO REGAIN
CONTROL INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW THE INVERTED
RIDGE TO BUILD BACK IN ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE COLUMN DRIES FROM INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. HAVE POPS DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL LIKELY TAKE A BIT MORE
TIME FOR THE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE GIVEN MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO BE
TRAPPED BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND E FLOW CONTINUES.
IN FACT...LOOKS LIKE AN UPPER LVL BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL LEAD
TO DECREASING H85 TEMPS. HAVE HELD HIGHS BACK...MAINLY IN THE 60S
TO AROUND 70. E COASTAL REGIONS ARE LIKELY TO TAKE THE LONGEST TO
SEE ANY CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING
  FRONT

21/00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY. THEN
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARISE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...
MAKING FOR A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST FROM THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
ONWARD.

A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY MAKE
ITS WAY EAST...MOVING JUST OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRIES TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN USA. THIS UPPER
TROUGH IS RATHER PERSISTENT THOUGH...WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN
LINGERING THIS TROUGH OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC LONGER AND LONGER.

COOLER...LESS SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IN
QUEBEC WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY DRY. STILL AGREE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THINKING 21/00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE
WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH...KEPT A DRY
FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

A HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY
MOVING SOUTH AND EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND RETURNING US TO A
MORE WESTERLY FLOW. A LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE
EAST INTO QUEBEC...SWINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THIS IS WHERE MODELS START TO DIVERGE
MORE SIGNIFICANTLY.

THE ECMWF LOOKS A BIT QUICKER THAN THE GFS WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS
FRONT...BUT NEITHER IS AS PROGRESSIVE AS THE CANADIAN. WILL TAKE A
BLENDED APPROACH WITH THE TIMING FOR NOW.  GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE COAST...WOULD NOT BE OVERLY
SURPRISED IF THE ULTIMATE TIMING TURNS OUT TO BE SLOWER THAN THE
GFS. DEPENDING ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE...WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...
MAINLY VFR EXCEPT SOME IFR/MVFR POSSIBLE AT SOME SITES ACROSS E
MA IN FOG. SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS ACK AND THE OUTER
ARM OF CAPE COD.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...
MAINLY VFR. EXCEPT FOR ACK...MOST OF THE RAIN REMAINS TO THE W
THROUGH THE DAY. THEN...BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS WRN
MA/CT/NH OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. SOME LOW MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE E COAST.

FRI...
CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY. SOME MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING GIVES WAY TO VFR THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MAY TAKE MOST OF
THE DAY ALONG THE E COAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAIN CONCERN IS WHETHER A
BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS MOVE IN EARLY THIS MORNING
BRIEFLY...AND THEN RETURNS LATE THU NIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR WITH E
FLOW ASSISTED BY SEABREEZES EXPECTED.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. -RA CHANCES BEGIN TOWARDS
THURSDAY MORNING ALONG WITH LOW-END VFR CIGS. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
THOUGH MAINLY TONIGHT...BUT REMAINS LOW-CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG EACH
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

LOW PRES WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
THEN MOVE E INTO FRI. A FEW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO IMPACT MAINLY
THE WATERS S OF THE VINEYARD AND ACK INTO MID DAY UNTIL THE LOW
MOVES FURTHER E. THE WEAK LOW PRES WILL ALSO GENERATE A MODEST
SWELL...BUT IT SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 4 FT INTO THE DAY ON
FRI. WINDS TOO MAY GUST TO ABOUT 15-20 KT AT TIMES OUT OF THE
E...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS COULD APPROACH 5
FT ACROSS THE OUTERMOST SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND. NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THOUGH. LOW
PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 210801
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
401 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS
THIS WEEKEND. A WARM-UP IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK PRIOR TO AN
UNSETTLED PATTERN AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPING SOUTH OUT
OF CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A TALE OF TWO LOW PRES SYSTEMS WILL DEFINE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY. ONE...AN UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY WEAKENING
AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN STALLED TO
THE W. THE OTHER IS A SLOWLY DEEPENING WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE E OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS LATTER FEATURE REMAINS WEAK...AND EXCEPT FOR AN INVERTED TROF
EVIDENT IN THE FLOW PATTERN HANGING BACK TOWARD THE ISLANDS...IS
EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON THE REGION. ONLY EXPECT A FEW
SHOWERS FOR MAINLY ACK THROUGH ABOUT THE AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME.

THE FORMER...THE UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN TOO AS
IT INTERACTS WITH A BLOCKED FLOW PATTERN AND CUTOFF HIGH PRES TO
THE N. IN FACT...IT WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION FROM A WEAK CUTOFF
TO AN OPEN WAVE THROUGH THE DAY. FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN ABOVE SRN
NEW ENGLAND REMAINS WEAK...WITH BOTH UPPER AND LOW LVL JET/S
REMAINING WELL TO THE W THROUGH THE DAY. THE APPROACHING WARM
FRONT AND MODEST LIFT PROVIDED BY WEAK DIFFERENTIAL VORT
ADVECTION FROM THE WAVE WILL PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR SHOWERY
ACTIVITY TO WORK ON A MOISTENING COLUMN MAINLY ACROSS CT AND WRN
MA/NH. THE INVERTED RIDGE ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION HAS
ALSO LED TO E FLOW WHICH WILL SUPPRESS ANY ATTEMPT AT
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE...WITH THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY REMAINING TO THE W...WILL KEEP
POPS FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS THE EXTREME W PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS
WELL AT LEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

REGARDING TEMPS...WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AND IN THE LOW-MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
SLIGHTLY INCREASED THREAT FOR OVERNIGHT SHOWERS...BUT STILL MAINLY
ACROSS THE W THANKS TO SOME LEFTOVER SUBSIDENCE CLOSER TO THE
GRADUALLY REBOUNDING INVERTED RIDGE. THE REMNANT VORT MAX FROM AN
UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. JET ENERGY THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN IS WEAK AND WHAT
IS LEFT OF A SFC WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY HAVE WASHED OUT FOR MOST
PART. THEREFORE...IT IS ONLY THE VORT MAX WHICH WILL BE PROVIDING
LIFT TO WORK ON THE 1.5 OR LESS PWAT AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION. DRIER AIR STILL REMAINS MAINLY ACROSS THE E...SO WILL
ONCE AGAIN FOCUS MAINLY FROM THE WORCESTER HILLS AND POINTS W FOR
THE SHOWERS. NO THUNDER WITH THIS UPDATE...AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS
QUITE STABLE THROUGHOUT. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE QPF
BULLSEYES THAT IT WAS SHOWING IN PREVIOUS RUNS FOR THE MOST
PART...BUT THESE ARE LIKELY JUST A CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUE.
OTHERWISE...MILD OVERNIGHT MINS WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER.
MAY NEED TO ALSO MONITOR ESPECIALLY THE E AND SE COASTLINES FOR
FOG AND STRATUS THANKS TO CONTINUED E FLOW AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
DWPTS WITHIN THE MOISTENED COLUMN IN COMPARISON TO PREVIOUS DAYS.

FRI...
UPPER LVL VORT MAX SLIDES TO THE SE DURING THE MORNING...COMBINING
WITH LEFTOVER CUTOFF ENERGY ACROSS ATLANTIC CANADA. WHILE THIS
WILL FORM A HANGING TROF WITH AXIS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...MID LVL RIDGING WILL THEN BE ABLE TO REGAIN
CONTROL INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW THE INVERTED
RIDGE TO BUILD BACK IN ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE COLUMN DRIES FROM INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. HAVE POPS DIMINISHING
THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL LIKELY TAKE A BIT MORE
TIME FOR THE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE GIVEN MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO BE
TRAPPED BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND E FLOW CONTINUES.
IN FACT...LOOKS LIKE AN UPPER LVL BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL LEAD
TO DECREASING H85 TEMPS. HAVE HELD HIGHS BACK...MAINLY IN THE 60S
TO AROUND 70. E COASTAL REGIONS ARE LIKELY TO TAKE THE LONGEST TO
SEE ANY CLEARING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING
  FRONT

21/00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY. THEN
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARISE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...
MAKING FOR A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST FROM THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
ONWARD.

A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY MAKE
ITS WAY EAST...MOVING JUST OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRIES TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN USA. THIS UPPER
TROUGH IS RATHER PERSISTENT THOUGH...WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN
LINGERING THIS TROUGH OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC LONGER AND LONGER.

COOLER...LESS SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IN
QUEBEC WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY DRY. STILL AGREE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THINKING 21/00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE
WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH...KEPT A DRY
FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

A HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY
MOVING SOUTH AND EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND RETURNING US TO A
MORE WESTERLY FLOW. A LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE
EAST INTO QUEBEC...SWINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THIS IS WHERE MODELS START TO DIVERGE
MORE SIGNIFICANTLY.

THE ECMWF LOOKS A BIT QUICKER THAN THE GFS WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS
FRONT...BUT NEITHER IS AS PROGRESSIVE AS THE CANADIAN. WILL TAKE A
BLENDED APPROACH WITH THE TIMING FOR NOW.  GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE COAST...WOULD NOT BE OVERLY
SURPRISED IF THE ULTIMATE TIMING TURNS OUT TO BE SLOWER THAN THE
GFS. DEPENDING ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE...WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...
MAINLY VFR EXCEPT SOME IFR/MVFR POSSIBLE AT SOME SITES ACROSS E
MA IN FOG. SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS ACK AND THE OUTER
ARM OF CAPE COD.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...
MAINLY VFR. EXCEPT FOR ACK...MOST OF THE RAIN REMAINS TO THE W
THROUGH THE DAY. THEN...BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS WRN
MA/CT/NH OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. SOME LOW MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE E COAST.

FRI...
CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY. SOME MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING GIVES WAY TO VFR THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MAY TAKE MOST OF
THE DAY ALONG THE E COAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAIN CONCERN IS WHETHER A
BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS MOVE IN EARLY THIS MORNING
BRIEFLY...AND THEN RETURNS LATE THU NIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR WITH E
FLOW ASSISTED BY SEABREEZES EXPECTED.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. -RA CHANCES BEGIN TOWARDS
THURSDAY MORNING ALONG WITH LOW-END VFR CIGS. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
THOUGH MAINLY TONIGHT...BUT REMAINS LOW-CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG EACH
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

LOW PRES WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
THEN MOVE E INTO FRI. A FEW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO IMPACT MAINLY
THE WATERS S OF THE VINEYARD AND ACK INTO MID DAY UNTIL THE LOW
MOVES FURTHER E. THE WEAK LOW PRES WILL ALSO GENERATE A MODEST
SWELL...BUT IT SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 4 FT INTO THE DAY ON
FRI. WINDS TOO MAY GUST TO ABOUT 15-20 KT AT TIMES OUT OF THE
E...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS COULD APPROACH 5
FT ACROSS THE OUTERMOST SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND. NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THOUGH. LOW
PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 210540
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
140 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WET WEATHER LIKELY IMPACTING WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEW
ENGLAND BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. DRIER AND
COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS INTO THE WEEKEND. A WARM-UP IS POSSIBLE
INTO NEXT WEEK PRIOR TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SWEEPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
130 AM UPDATE...
MOST FORECAST PARAMETERS ON TRACK. ALTHOUGH SOME RAIN IS JUST
BEGINNING TO BREAK THE WRN MOST BORDER OF BOX CWA. INCREASED POPS
IN THIS REGION BY JUST A BIT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HEIGHTS FALL AS THE GREAT LAKES LOW SHIFTS INTO THE NE CONUS...
TROUGHING TOWARDS THE W-E AXIS OF LOW PRESSURE AND INSTABILITY OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC. LABRADOR RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRY
AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL PERSIST INTO NEW ENGLAND...AHEAD OF WHICH
THE COLLISION TOWARDS LOW PRESSURE AND HIGHER THETA-E AIR WILL
RESULT IN A DEFINED AREA OF CONVERGENCE ACROSS PA/NY...AND
POSSIBLY SE MA.

TO THE W...INCREASING THETA-E MOISTURE LOADING THE MID- TO UPPER-
LEVELS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS W TO
E. BUT STILL A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME BELOW H6-7 ESPECIALLY OVER
E NEW ENGLAND WITH THE INVERTED RIDGE. NOTING THE WARM FRONT WELL W
ACROSS PA/NY ALONG WITH PARENT DYNAMICS AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITHIN AREAS OF DEEP-LAYER ASCENT SHOULD
BE NO FURTHER E OF THE CT-RIVER VALLEY. EXPECTING SPRINKLES. ITS
LIKELY BETTER ACTIVITY WILL BE WELL N/W PARENT WITH BETTER MOISTURE
CONVERGENT ALONG THE NOSE OF THE H925-85 JET INTO THE ADIRONDACKS
ON UP INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC AS DESTABILIZATION CONCLUDES. PREFER
CHANCE POPS ONLY INTO THE CT-VALLEY.

TO THE SE...TROUGHING SE BACKS LOW PRESSURE AND HIGHER THETA-E AIR
OFF THE E-W STALLED FRONT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE CONVERGENCE OF
AIR MASSES ALONG AN INVERTED-TROUGH TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN...EVEN THUNDERSTORMS. MAINLY A
WARM-RAIN PROCESS WITH PWATS UP TO 1.75 INCHES. WHILE A CONSISTENT
SIGNAL AMONG FORECAST SOLUTIONS...OUTCOMES VARY SLIGHTLY LIKELY DUE
TO THE STRENGTH OF INVERTED-RIDGE. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR
NANTUCKET WITH CHANCE POPS INTO THE CAPE AND SE MA. THE SETUP IS
ALREADY COMING TOGETHER SEEN PER IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE...BUT A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AND THE ZONE
SETUP OF CONVERGENCE. WRF/NAM THE MOST ROBUST WITH OUTCOMES. 17Z
HRRR/18Z RAP HAS ACTIVITY MISSING NANTUCKET. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
TO GO HIGH CATEGORICAL POPS.

THICKER CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
ANTICIPATING A MORE MILD NIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WITH LOWS
AROUND THE UPPER-50S. COOLEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS E/SE MA
UNDER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND THE BETTER CHANCE OF RADIATING
OUT...LOWS AROUND THE MID-50S. FOR SUCH AREAS THERE IS ALSO THE
POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY GROUND FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...

CLOSED LOW OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES GRADUALLY WOBBLES INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AS IT TRANSITIONS SW
RE-EMERGING ALONG THE W-E FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
TOWARDS THE BETTER THERMAL-INSTABILITY AXIS.

SUBSEQUENT RISING HEIGHTS ALLOWS RIDGING TO BUILD SW THURSDAY
NIGHT. WHILE HIGHER THETA-E AIR STREAMS ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN
THE MID-LEVELS...E-FLOW WITHIN LOW-LEVELS FROM THE LABRADOR HIGH
UNDERCUTS MOISTURE LOADING ALOFT KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIRLY STABLE
AND DRY...LIKELY TO ERODE ACTIVITY S AND W.

AS THE LOW TRANSITIONS AND WEAKENS...PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS CONCLUDES WITH THE STRENGTHENING INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE. ENERGY AND MOISTURE PARENT TO THE LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO
SWEEP MAINLY ACROSS SW NEW ENGLAND...PERHAPS SW OF A LINE FROM
BOSTON TO KEENE NH. WILL KEEP THESE AREAS UNDER CHANCE POPS
ACCORDINGLY WITH ASCENT AND LIKELY CONVERGENCE AGAINST THE SW
BUILDING RIDGE.

WITH THE UNDERCUTTING DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS OFF THE OCEAN WITH THE
STRENGTHENING RIDGE LATE...AND CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD LIMITING
DESTABILIZATION...NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER. HIGHS AROUND THE MID-
TO UPPER-70S DURING THE DAY WITH LOWS AROUND THE UPPER-50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING
  FRONT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. A
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY MAKE
ITS WAY EAST...MOVING JUST OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRIES TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN U.S.  THE UPPER
TROUGH IS RATHER PERSISTENT THOUGH AND EACH MODEL RUN KEEPS THE
TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE LONGER AND LONGER.

COOLER...LESS SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IN
QUEBEC WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY DRY.  MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR QPF EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF
ANY FORCING MECHANISM AND VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO SPEAK OF...
THINKING THIS COULD BE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK RATHER THAN A DEPICTION
OF ANYTHING LIKELY TO OCCUR.

THE HIGH WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...EVENTUALLY DROPPING SOUTH AND EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND RETURNING US TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW.  LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO
MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC BRINGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.  THIS IS WHERE
MODELS START TO DIVERGE A BIT WITH THE ECMWF A BIT QUICKER THAN THE
GFS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT. DEPENDING ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE
THIS MAY INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...
MAINLY VFR EXCEPT SOME IFR/MVFR POSSIBLE AT SOME SITES ACROSS E
MA IN FOG. SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS ACK AND THE OUTER
ARM OF CAPE COD.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...
MAINLY VFR. EXCEPT FOR ACK...MOST OF THE RAIN REMAINS TO THE W
THROUGH THE DAY. THEN...BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS WRN
MA/CT/NH OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. SOME LOW MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE E COAST.

FRI...
CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY. SOME MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING GIVES WAY TO VFR THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MAY TAKE MOST OF
THE DAY ALONG THE E COAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAIN CONCERN IS WHETHER A
BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS MOVE IN EARLY THIS MORNING
BRIEFLY...AND THEN RETURNS LATE THU NIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR WITH E
FLOW ASSISTED BY SEABREEZES EXPECTED.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. -RA CHANCES BEGIN TOWARDS
THURSDAY MORNING ALONG WITH LOW-END VFR CIGS. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
THOUGH MAINLY TONIGHT...BUT REMAINS LOW-CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY
MVFR/IFR FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CLOSELY MONITORING THE SE WATERS. MAY SEE A SURGANCE OF RAIN ALONG
WITH VISIBILITY IMPACTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THURSDAY
ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN E-NE FLOW AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS WELL OUT TO SEA. QUITE POSSIBLE WIND GUST UP TO 25
KTS...BUT WILL HOLD AROUND 20 KTS FOR NOW. WILL KEEP SEAS AROUND 3
TO 4 FEET. CONDITIONS RELAX INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY/RLG
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 210540
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
140 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WET WEATHER LIKELY IMPACTING WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEW
ENGLAND BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. DRIER AND
COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS INTO THE WEEKEND. A WARM-UP IS POSSIBLE
INTO NEXT WEEK PRIOR TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SWEEPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
130 AM UPDATE...
MOST FORECAST PARAMETERS ON TRACK. ALTHOUGH SOME RAIN IS JUST
BEGINNING TO BREAK THE WRN MOST BORDER OF BOX CWA. INCREASED POPS
IN THIS REGION BY JUST A BIT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HEIGHTS FALL AS THE GREAT LAKES LOW SHIFTS INTO THE NE CONUS...
TROUGHING TOWARDS THE W-E AXIS OF LOW PRESSURE AND INSTABILITY OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC. LABRADOR RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRY
AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL PERSIST INTO NEW ENGLAND...AHEAD OF WHICH
THE COLLISION TOWARDS LOW PRESSURE AND HIGHER THETA-E AIR WILL
RESULT IN A DEFINED AREA OF CONVERGENCE ACROSS PA/NY...AND
POSSIBLY SE MA.

TO THE W...INCREASING THETA-E MOISTURE LOADING THE MID- TO UPPER-
LEVELS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS W TO
E. BUT STILL A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME BELOW H6-7 ESPECIALLY OVER
E NEW ENGLAND WITH THE INVERTED RIDGE. NOTING THE WARM FRONT WELL W
ACROSS PA/NY ALONG WITH PARENT DYNAMICS AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITHIN AREAS OF DEEP-LAYER ASCENT SHOULD
BE NO FURTHER E OF THE CT-RIVER VALLEY. EXPECTING SPRINKLES. ITS
LIKELY BETTER ACTIVITY WILL BE WELL N/W PARENT WITH BETTER MOISTURE
CONVERGENT ALONG THE NOSE OF THE H925-85 JET INTO THE ADIRONDACKS
ON UP INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC AS DESTABILIZATION CONCLUDES. PREFER
CHANCE POPS ONLY INTO THE CT-VALLEY.

TO THE SE...TROUGHING SE BACKS LOW PRESSURE AND HIGHER THETA-E AIR
OFF THE E-W STALLED FRONT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE CONVERGENCE OF
AIR MASSES ALONG AN INVERTED-TROUGH TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN...EVEN THUNDERSTORMS. MAINLY A
WARM-RAIN PROCESS WITH PWATS UP TO 1.75 INCHES. WHILE A CONSISTENT
SIGNAL AMONG FORECAST SOLUTIONS...OUTCOMES VARY SLIGHTLY LIKELY DUE
TO THE STRENGTH OF INVERTED-RIDGE. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR
NANTUCKET WITH CHANCE POPS INTO THE CAPE AND SE MA. THE SETUP IS
ALREADY COMING TOGETHER SEEN PER IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE...BUT A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AND THE ZONE
SETUP OF CONVERGENCE. WRF/NAM THE MOST ROBUST WITH OUTCOMES. 17Z
HRRR/18Z RAP HAS ACTIVITY MISSING NANTUCKET. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
TO GO HIGH CATEGORICAL POPS.

THICKER CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
ANTICIPATING A MORE MILD NIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WITH LOWS
AROUND THE UPPER-50S. COOLEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS E/SE MA
UNDER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND THE BETTER CHANCE OF RADIATING
OUT...LOWS AROUND THE MID-50S. FOR SUCH AREAS THERE IS ALSO THE
POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY GROUND FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...

CLOSED LOW OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES GRADUALLY WOBBLES INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AS IT TRANSITIONS SW
RE-EMERGING ALONG THE W-E FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
TOWARDS THE BETTER THERMAL-INSTABILITY AXIS.

SUBSEQUENT RISING HEIGHTS ALLOWS RIDGING TO BUILD SW THURSDAY
NIGHT. WHILE HIGHER THETA-E AIR STREAMS ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN
THE MID-LEVELS...E-FLOW WITHIN LOW-LEVELS FROM THE LABRADOR HIGH
UNDERCUTS MOISTURE LOADING ALOFT KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIRLY STABLE
AND DRY...LIKELY TO ERODE ACTIVITY S AND W.

AS THE LOW TRANSITIONS AND WEAKENS...PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS CONCLUDES WITH THE STRENGTHENING INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE. ENERGY AND MOISTURE PARENT TO THE LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO
SWEEP MAINLY ACROSS SW NEW ENGLAND...PERHAPS SW OF A LINE FROM
BOSTON TO KEENE NH. WILL KEEP THESE AREAS UNDER CHANCE POPS
ACCORDINGLY WITH ASCENT AND LIKELY CONVERGENCE AGAINST THE SW
BUILDING RIDGE.

WITH THE UNDERCUTTING DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS OFF THE OCEAN WITH THE
STRENGTHENING RIDGE LATE...AND CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD LIMITING
DESTABILIZATION...NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER. HIGHS AROUND THE MID-
TO UPPER-70S DURING THE DAY WITH LOWS AROUND THE UPPER-50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING
  FRONT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. A
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY MAKE
ITS WAY EAST...MOVING JUST OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRIES TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN U.S.  THE UPPER
TROUGH IS RATHER PERSISTENT THOUGH AND EACH MODEL RUN KEEPS THE
TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE LONGER AND LONGER.

COOLER...LESS SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IN
QUEBEC WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY DRY.  MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR QPF EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF
ANY FORCING MECHANISM AND VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO SPEAK OF...
THINKING THIS COULD BE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK RATHER THAN A DEPICTION
OF ANYTHING LIKELY TO OCCUR.

THE HIGH WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...EVENTUALLY DROPPING SOUTH AND EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND RETURNING US TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW.  LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO
MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC BRINGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.  THIS IS WHERE
MODELS START TO DIVERGE A BIT WITH THE ECMWF A BIT QUICKER THAN THE
GFS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT. DEPENDING ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE
THIS MAY INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...
MAINLY VFR EXCEPT SOME IFR/MVFR POSSIBLE AT SOME SITES ACROSS E
MA IN FOG. SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS ACK AND THE OUTER
ARM OF CAPE COD.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...
MAINLY VFR. EXCEPT FOR ACK...MOST OF THE RAIN REMAINS TO THE W
THROUGH THE DAY. THEN...BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS WRN
MA/CT/NH OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. SOME LOW MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE E COAST.

FRI...
CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY. SOME MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING GIVES WAY TO VFR THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MAY TAKE MOST OF
THE DAY ALONG THE E COAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAIN CONCERN IS WHETHER A
BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS MOVE IN EARLY THIS MORNING
BRIEFLY...AND THEN RETURNS LATE THU NIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR WITH E
FLOW ASSISTED BY SEABREEZES EXPECTED.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. -RA CHANCES BEGIN TOWARDS
THURSDAY MORNING ALONG WITH LOW-END VFR CIGS. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
THOUGH MAINLY TONIGHT...BUT REMAINS LOW-CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY
MVFR/IFR FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CLOSELY MONITORING THE SE WATERS. MAY SEE A SURGANCE OF RAIN ALONG
WITH VISIBILITY IMPACTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THURSDAY
ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN E-NE FLOW AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS WELL OUT TO SEA. QUITE POSSIBLE WIND GUST UP TO 25
KTS...BUT WILL HOLD AROUND 20 KTS FOR NOW. WILL KEEP SEAS AROUND 3
TO 4 FEET. CONDITIONS RELAX INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY/RLG
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 210540
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
140 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WET WEATHER LIKELY IMPACTING WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEW
ENGLAND BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. DRIER AND
COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS INTO THE WEEKEND. A WARM-UP IS POSSIBLE
INTO NEXT WEEK PRIOR TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SWEEPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
130 AM UPDATE...
MOST FORECAST PARAMETERS ON TRACK. ALTHOUGH SOME RAIN IS JUST
BEGINNING TO BREAK THE WRN MOST BORDER OF BOX CWA. INCREASED POPS
IN THIS REGION BY JUST A BIT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HEIGHTS FALL AS THE GREAT LAKES LOW SHIFTS INTO THE NE CONUS...
TROUGHING TOWARDS THE W-E AXIS OF LOW PRESSURE AND INSTABILITY OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC. LABRADOR RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRY
AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL PERSIST INTO NEW ENGLAND...AHEAD OF WHICH
THE COLLISION TOWARDS LOW PRESSURE AND HIGHER THETA-E AIR WILL
RESULT IN A DEFINED AREA OF CONVERGENCE ACROSS PA/NY...AND
POSSIBLY SE MA.

TO THE W...INCREASING THETA-E MOISTURE LOADING THE MID- TO UPPER-
LEVELS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS W TO
E. BUT STILL A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME BELOW H6-7 ESPECIALLY OVER
E NEW ENGLAND WITH THE INVERTED RIDGE. NOTING THE WARM FRONT WELL W
ACROSS PA/NY ALONG WITH PARENT DYNAMICS AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITHIN AREAS OF DEEP-LAYER ASCENT SHOULD
BE NO FURTHER E OF THE CT-RIVER VALLEY. EXPECTING SPRINKLES. ITS
LIKELY BETTER ACTIVITY WILL BE WELL N/W PARENT WITH BETTER MOISTURE
CONVERGENT ALONG THE NOSE OF THE H925-85 JET INTO THE ADIRONDACKS
ON UP INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC AS DESTABILIZATION CONCLUDES. PREFER
CHANCE POPS ONLY INTO THE CT-VALLEY.

TO THE SE...TROUGHING SE BACKS LOW PRESSURE AND HIGHER THETA-E AIR
OFF THE E-W STALLED FRONT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE CONVERGENCE OF
AIR MASSES ALONG AN INVERTED-TROUGH TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN...EVEN THUNDERSTORMS. MAINLY A
WARM-RAIN PROCESS WITH PWATS UP TO 1.75 INCHES. WHILE A CONSISTENT
SIGNAL AMONG FORECAST SOLUTIONS...OUTCOMES VARY SLIGHTLY LIKELY DUE
TO THE STRENGTH OF INVERTED-RIDGE. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR
NANTUCKET WITH CHANCE POPS INTO THE CAPE AND SE MA. THE SETUP IS
ALREADY COMING TOGETHER SEEN PER IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE...BUT A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AND THE ZONE
SETUP OF CONVERGENCE. WRF/NAM THE MOST ROBUST WITH OUTCOMES. 17Z
HRRR/18Z RAP HAS ACTIVITY MISSING NANTUCKET. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
TO GO HIGH CATEGORICAL POPS.

THICKER CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
ANTICIPATING A MORE MILD NIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WITH LOWS
AROUND THE UPPER-50S. COOLEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS E/SE MA
UNDER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND THE BETTER CHANCE OF RADIATING
OUT...LOWS AROUND THE MID-50S. FOR SUCH AREAS THERE IS ALSO THE
POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY GROUND FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...

CLOSED LOW OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES GRADUALLY WOBBLES INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AS IT TRANSITIONS SW
RE-EMERGING ALONG THE W-E FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
TOWARDS THE BETTER THERMAL-INSTABILITY AXIS.

SUBSEQUENT RISING HEIGHTS ALLOWS RIDGING TO BUILD SW THURSDAY
NIGHT. WHILE HIGHER THETA-E AIR STREAMS ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN
THE MID-LEVELS...E-FLOW WITHIN LOW-LEVELS FROM THE LABRADOR HIGH
UNDERCUTS MOISTURE LOADING ALOFT KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIRLY STABLE
AND DRY...LIKELY TO ERODE ACTIVITY S AND W.

AS THE LOW TRANSITIONS AND WEAKENS...PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS CONCLUDES WITH THE STRENGTHENING INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE. ENERGY AND MOISTURE PARENT TO THE LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO
SWEEP MAINLY ACROSS SW NEW ENGLAND...PERHAPS SW OF A LINE FROM
BOSTON TO KEENE NH. WILL KEEP THESE AREAS UNDER CHANCE POPS
ACCORDINGLY WITH ASCENT AND LIKELY CONVERGENCE AGAINST THE SW
BUILDING RIDGE.

WITH THE UNDERCUTTING DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS OFF THE OCEAN WITH THE
STRENGTHENING RIDGE LATE...AND CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD LIMITING
DESTABILIZATION...NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER. HIGHS AROUND THE MID-
TO UPPER-70S DURING THE DAY WITH LOWS AROUND THE UPPER-50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING
  FRONT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. A
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY MAKE
ITS WAY EAST...MOVING JUST OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRIES TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN U.S.  THE UPPER
TROUGH IS RATHER PERSISTENT THOUGH AND EACH MODEL RUN KEEPS THE
TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE LONGER AND LONGER.

COOLER...LESS SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IN
QUEBEC WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY DRY.  MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR QPF EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF
ANY FORCING MECHANISM AND VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO SPEAK OF...
THINKING THIS COULD BE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK RATHER THAN A DEPICTION
OF ANYTHING LIKELY TO OCCUR.

THE HIGH WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...EVENTUALLY DROPPING SOUTH AND EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND RETURNING US TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW.  LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO
MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC BRINGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.  THIS IS WHERE
MODELS START TO DIVERGE A BIT WITH THE ECMWF A BIT QUICKER THAN THE
GFS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT. DEPENDING ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE
THIS MAY INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...
MAINLY VFR EXCEPT SOME IFR/MVFR POSSIBLE AT SOME SITES ACROSS E
MA IN FOG. SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS ACK AND THE OUTER
ARM OF CAPE COD.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...
MAINLY VFR. EXCEPT FOR ACK...MOST OF THE RAIN REMAINS TO THE W
THROUGH THE DAY. THEN...BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS WRN
MA/CT/NH OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. SOME LOW MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE E COAST.

FRI...
CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY. SOME MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING GIVES WAY TO VFR THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MAY TAKE MOST OF
THE DAY ALONG THE E COAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAIN CONCERN IS WHETHER A
BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS MOVE IN EARLY THIS MORNING
BRIEFLY...AND THEN RETURNS LATE THU NIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR WITH E
FLOW ASSISTED BY SEABREEZES EXPECTED.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. -RA CHANCES BEGIN TOWARDS
THURSDAY MORNING ALONG WITH LOW-END VFR CIGS. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
THOUGH MAINLY TONIGHT...BUT REMAINS LOW-CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY
MVFR/IFR FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CLOSELY MONITORING THE SE WATERS. MAY SEE A SURGANCE OF RAIN ALONG
WITH VISIBILITY IMPACTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THURSDAY
ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN E-NE FLOW AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS WELL OUT TO SEA. QUITE POSSIBLE WIND GUST UP TO 25
KTS...BUT WILL HOLD AROUND 20 KTS FOR NOW. WILL KEEP SEAS AROUND 3
TO 4 FEET. CONDITIONS RELAX INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY/RLG
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 210540
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
140 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WET WEATHER LIKELY IMPACTING WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEW
ENGLAND BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. DRIER AND
COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS INTO THE WEEKEND. A WARM-UP IS POSSIBLE
INTO NEXT WEEK PRIOR TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SWEEPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
130 AM UPDATE...
MOST FORECAST PARAMETERS ON TRACK. ALTHOUGH SOME RAIN IS JUST
BEGINNING TO BREAK THE WRN MOST BORDER OF BOX CWA. INCREASED POPS
IN THIS REGION BY JUST A BIT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HEIGHTS FALL AS THE GREAT LAKES LOW SHIFTS INTO THE NE CONUS...
TROUGHING TOWARDS THE W-E AXIS OF LOW PRESSURE AND INSTABILITY OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC. LABRADOR RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRY
AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL PERSIST INTO NEW ENGLAND...AHEAD OF WHICH
THE COLLISION TOWARDS LOW PRESSURE AND HIGHER THETA-E AIR WILL
RESULT IN A DEFINED AREA OF CONVERGENCE ACROSS PA/NY...AND
POSSIBLY SE MA.

TO THE W...INCREASING THETA-E MOISTURE LOADING THE MID- TO UPPER-
LEVELS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS W TO
E. BUT STILL A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME BELOW H6-7 ESPECIALLY OVER
E NEW ENGLAND WITH THE INVERTED RIDGE. NOTING THE WARM FRONT WELL W
ACROSS PA/NY ALONG WITH PARENT DYNAMICS AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITHIN AREAS OF DEEP-LAYER ASCENT SHOULD
BE NO FURTHER E OF THE CT-RIVER VALLEY. EXPECTING SPRINKLES. ITS
LIKELY BETTER ACTIVITY WILL BE WELL N/W PARENT WITH BETTER MOISTURE
CONVERGENT ALONG THE NOSE OF THE H925-85 JET INTO THE ADIRONDACKS
ON UP INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC AS DESTABILIZATION CONCLUDES. PREFER
CHANCE POPS ONLY INTO THE CT-VALLEY.

TO THE SE...TROUGHING SE BACKS LOW PRESSURE AND HIGHER THETA-E AIR
OFF THE E-W STALLED FRONT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE CONVERGENCE OF
AIR MASSES ALONG AN INVERTED-TROUGH TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN...EVEN THUNDERSTORMS. MAINLY A
WARM-RAIN PROCESS WITH PWATS UP TO 1.75 INCHES. WHILE A CONSISTENT
SIGNAL AMONG FORECAST SOLUTIONS...OUTCOMES VARY SLIGHTLY LIKELY DUE
TO THE STRENGTH OF INVERTED-RIDGE. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR
NANTUCKET WITH CHANCE POPS INTO THE CAPE AND SE MA. THE SETUP IS
ALREADY COMING TOGETHER SEEN PER IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE...BUT A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AND THE ZONE
SETUP OF CONVERGENCE. WRF/NAM THE MOST ROBUST WITH OUTCOMES. 17Z
HRRR/18Z RAP HAS ACTIVITY MISSING NANTUCKET. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
TO GO HIGH CATEGORICAL POPS.

THICKER CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
ANTICIPATING A MORE MILD NIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WITH LOWS
AROUND THE UPPER-50S. COOLEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS E/SE MA
UNDER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND THE BETTER CHANCE OF RADIATING
OUT...LOWS AROUND THE MID-50S. FOR SUCH AREAS THERE IS ALSO THE
POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY GROUND FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...

CLOSED LOW OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES GRADUALLY WOBBLES INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AS IT TRANSITIONS SW
RE-EMERGING ALONG THE W-E FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
TOWARDS THE BETTER THERMAL-INSTABILITY AXIS.

SUBSEQUENT RISING HEIGHTS ALLOWS RIDGING TO BUILD SW THURSDAY
NIGHT. WHILE HIGHER THETA-E AIR STREAMS ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN
THE MID-LEVELS...E-FLOW WITHIN LOW-LEVELS FROM THE LABRADOR HIGH
UNDERCUTS MOISTURE LOADING ALOFT KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIRLY STABLE
AND DRY...LIKELY TO ERODE ACTIVITY S AND W.

AS THE LOW TRANSITIONS AND WEAKENS...PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS CONCLUDES WITH THE STRENGTHENING INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE. ENERGY AND MOISTURE PARENT TO THE LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO
SWEEP MAINLY ACROSS SW NEW ENGLAND...PERHAPS SW OF A LINE FROM
BOSTON TO KEENE NH. WILL KEEP THESE AREAS UNDER CHANCE POPS
ACCORDINGLY WITH ASCENT AND LIKELY CONVERGENCE AGAINST THE SW
BUILDING RIDGE.

WITH THE UNDERCUTTING DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS OFF THE OCEAN WITH THE
STRENGTHENING RIDGE LATE...AND CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD LIMITING
DESTABILIZATION...NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER. HIGHS AROUND THE MID-
TO UPPER-70S DURING THE DAY WITH LOWS AROUND THE UPPER-50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING
  FRONT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. A
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY MAKE
ITS WAY EAST...MOVING JUST OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRIES TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN U.S.  THE UPPER
TROUGH IS RATHER PERSISTENT THOUGH AND EACH MODEL RUN KEEPS THE
TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE LONGER AND LONGER.

COOLER...LESS SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IN
QUEBEC WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY DRY.  MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR QPF EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF
ANY FORCING MECHANISM AND VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO SPEAK OF...
THINKING THIS COULD BE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK RATHER THAN A DEPICTION
OF ANYTHING LIKELY TO OCCUR.

THE HIGH WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...EVENTUALLY DROPPING SOUTH AND EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND RETURNING US TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW.  LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO
MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC BRINGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.  THIS IS WHERE
MODELS START TO DIVERGE A BIT WITH THE ECMWF A BIT QUICKER THAN THE
GFS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT. DEPENDING ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE
THIS MAY INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH 12Z...
MAINLY VFR EXCEPT SOME IFR/MVFR POSSIBLE AT SOME SITES ACROSS E
MA IN FOG. SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS ACK AND THE OUTER
ARM OF CAPE COD.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...
MAINLY VFR. EXCEPT FOR ACK...MOST OF THE RAIN REMAINS TO THE W
THROUGH THE DAY. THEN...BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS WRN
MA/CT/NH OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. SOME LOW MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE E COAST.

FRI...
CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY. SOME MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING GIVES WAY TO VFR THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MAY TAKE MOST OF
THE DAY ALONG THE E COAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAIN CONCERN IS WHETHER A
BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS MOVE IN EARLY THIS MORNING
BRIEFLY...AND THEN RETURNS LATE THU NIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR WITH E
FLOW ASSISTED BY SEABREEZES EXPECTED.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. -RA CHANCES BEGIN TOWARDS
THURSDAY MORNING ALONG WITH LOW-END VFR CIGS. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
THOUGH MAINLY TONIGHT...BUT REMAINS LOW-CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY
MVFR/IFR FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CLOSELY MONITORING THE SE WATERS. MAY SEE A SURGANCE OF RAIN ALONG
WITH VISIBILITY IMPACTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THURSDAY
ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN E-NE FLOW AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS WELL OUT TO SEA. QUITE POSSIBLE WIND GUST UP TO 25
KTS...BUT WILL HOLD AROUND 20 KTS FOR NOW. WILL KEEP SEAS AROUND 3
TO 4 FEET. CONDITIONS RELAX INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY/RLG
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 210200
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1000 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WET WEATHER LIKELY IMPACTING WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEW
ENGLAND BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. DRIER AND
COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS INTO THE WEEKEND. A WARM-UP IS POSSIBLE
INTO NEXT WEEK PRIOR TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SWEEPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
METEOROLOGICAL SQUEEZE PLAY GOING ON THIS EVENING AS WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE E SLOWLY FROM NY/PA. AS WELL A TROF OF LOW PRES
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OFFSHORE. WHILE THE FORMER FEATURE IS MOISTURE
STARVED AND STRUGGLES TO ALLOW ANY PRECIP TO MOVE IN UNDER
INVERTED RIDGING...THE LATTER WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A WEAK INVERTED TROF DEVELOPS...HANGING
BACK TOWARD MVY AND ACK EARLY IN THE MORNING. EVEN THE MESO-SCALE
GUIDANCE INDICATES WEAK CONVERGENCE IN THE FLOW PATTERN. THE
QUESTION IS WHETHER A BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPS FAR ENOUGH N TO
EFFECT THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. EARLIER GUIDANCE WAS MUCH MORE ROBUST
WITH THIS AND HAVE SINCE BACKED OFF. AS SUCH...WILL LOWER GUIDANCE
MAINLY TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE AREA WITH CHANCE JUST OFFSHORE.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. DO ALREADY
NOTE SOME LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER ACK WITH LATEST OB.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HEIGHTS FALL AS THE GREAT LAKES LOW SHIFTS INTO THE NE CONUS...
TROUGHING TOWARDS THE W-E AXIS OF LOW PRESSURE AND INSTABILITY OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC. LABRADOR RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRY
AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL PERSIST INTO NEW ENGLAND...AHEAD OF WHICH
THE COLLISION TOWARDS LOW PRESSURE AND HIGHER THETA-E AIR WILL
RESULT IN A DEFINED AREA OF CONVERGENCE ACROSS PA/NY...AND
POSSIBLY SE MA.

TO THE W...INCREASING THETA-E MOISTURE LOADING THE MID- TO UPPER-
LEVELS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS W TO
E. BUT STILL A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME BELOW H6-7 ESPECIALLY OVER
E NEW ENGLAND WITH THE INVERTED RIDGE. NOTING THE WARM FRONT WELL W
ACROSS PA/NY ALONG WITH PARENT DYNAMICS AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITHIN AREAS OF DEEP-LAYER ASCENT SHOULD
BE NO FURTHER E OF THE CT-RIVER VALLEY. EXPECTING SPRINKLES. ITS
LIKELY BETTER ACTIVITY WILL BE WELL N/W PARENT WITH BETTER MOISTURE
CONVERGENT ALONG THE NOSE OF THE H925-85 JET INTO THE ADIRONDACKS
ON UP INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC AS DESTABILIZATION CONCLUDES. PREFER
CHANCE POPS ONLY INTO THE CT-VALLEY.

TO THE SE...TROUGHING SE BACKS LOW PRESSURE AND HIGHER THETA-E AIR
OFF THE E-W STALLED FRONT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE CONVERGENCE OF
AIR MASSES ALONG AN INVERTED-TROUGH TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN...EVEN THUNDERSTORMS. MAINLY A
WARM-RAIN PROCESS WITH PWATS UP TO 1.75 INCHES. WHILE A CONSISTENT
SIGNAL AMONG FORECAST SOLUTIONS...OUTCOMES VARY SLIGHTLY LIKELY DUE
TO THE STRENGTH OF INVERTED-RIDGE. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR
NANTUCKET WITH CHANCE POPS INTO THE CAPE AND SE MA. THE SETUP IS
ALREADY COMING TOGETHER SEEN PER IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE...BUT A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AND THE ZONE
SETUP OF CONVERGENCE. WRF/NAM THE MOST ROBUST WITH OUTCOMES. 17Z
HRRR/18Z RAP HAS ACTIVITY MISSING NANTUCKET. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
TO GO HIGH CATEGORICAL POPS.

THICKER CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
ANTICIPATING A MORE MILD NIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WITH LOWS
AROUND THE UPPER-50S. COOLEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS E/SE MA
UNDER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND THE BETTER CHANCE OF RADIATING
OUT...LOWS AROUND THE MID-50S. FOR SUCH AREAS THERE IS ALSO THE
POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY GROUND FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...

CLOSED LOW OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES GRADUALLY WOBBLES INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AS IT TRANSITIONS SW
RE-EMERGING ALONG THE W-E FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
TOWARDS THE BETTER THERMAL-INSTABILITY AXIS.

SUBSEQUENT RISING HEIGHTS ALLOWS RIDGING TO BUILD SW THURSDAY
NIGHT. WHILE HIGHER THETA-E AIR STREAMS ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN
THE MID-LEVELS...E-FLOW WITHIN LOW-LEVELS FROM THE LABRADOR HIGH
UNDERCUTS MOISTURE LOADING ALOFT KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIRLY STABLE
AND DRY...LIKELY TO ERODE ACTIVITY S AND W.

AS THE LOW TRANSITIONS AND WEAKENS...PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS CONCLUDES WITH THE STRENGTHENING INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE. ENERGY AND MOISTURE PARENT TO THE LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO
SWEEP MAINLY ACROSS SW NEW ENGLAND...PERHAPS SW OF A LINE FROM
BOSTON TO KEENE NH. WILL KEEP THESE AREAS UNDER CHANCE POPS
ACCORDINGLY WITH ASCENT AND LIKELY CONVERGENCE AGAINST THE SW
BUILDING RIDGE.

WITH THE UNDERCUTTING DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS OFF THE OCEAN WITH THE
STRENGTHENING RIDGE LATE...AND CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD LIMITING
DESTABILIZATION...NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER. HIGHS AROUND THE MID-
TO UPPER-70S DURING THE DAY WITH LOWS AROUND THE UPPER-50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING
  FRONT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. A
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY MAKE
ITS WAY EAST...MOVING JUST OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRIES TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN U.S.  THE UPPER
TROUGH IS RATHER PERSISTENT THOUGH AND EACH MODEL RUN KEEPS THE
TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE LONGER AND LONGER.

COOLER...LESS SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IN
QUEBEC WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY DRY.  MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR QPF EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF
ANY FORCING MECHANISM AND VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO SPEAK OF...
THINKING THIS COULD BE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK RATHER THAN A DEPICTION
OF ANYTHING LIKELY TO OCCUR.

THE HIGH WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...EVENTUALLY DROPPING SOUTH AND EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND RETURNING US TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW.  LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO
MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC BRINGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.  THIS IS WHERE
MODELS START TO DIVERGE A BIT WITH THE ECMWF A BIT QUICKER THAN THE
GFS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT. DEPENDING ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE
THIS MAY INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. LIGHT/VRB WINDS OVERNIGHT BEFORE PREVAILING E/SE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW-END VFR CIGS SLOWLY BUILDING E ALONG WITH
-RA CHANCES TOWARDS IJD-ORH-AFN. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH SE MA FOR
POTENTIAL +RA AND MVFR-IFR IMPACTS BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO
THU MORNING. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE CLOSER TO FRIDAY
MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. E/SE FLOW PREVAILS. EXPECT
CONDITIONS NO LOWER THAN LOW-END VFR CIGS. -RA CHANCES MINIMAL.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. -RA CHANCES BEGIN TOWARDS
THURSDAY MORNING ALONG WITH LOW-END VFR CIGS. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
THOUGH LOW-CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY
MVFR/IFR FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CLOSELY MONITORING THE SE WATERS. MAY SEE A SURGANCE OF RAIN ALONG
WITH VISIBILITY IMPACTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THURSDAY
ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN E-NE FLOW AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS WELL OUT TO SEA. QUITE POSSIBLE WIND GUST UP TO 25
KTS...BUT WILL HOLD AROUND 20 KTS FOR NOW. WILL KEEP SEAS AROUND 3
TO 4 FEET. CONDITIONS RELAX INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 210200
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1000 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WET WEATHER LIKELY IMPACTING WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEW
ENGLAND BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. DRIER AND
COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS INTO THE WEEKEND. A WARM-UP IS POSSIBLE
INTO NEXT WEEK PRIOR TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SWEEPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
METEOROLOGICAL SQUEEZE PLAY GOING ON THIS EVENING AS WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE E SLOWLY FROM NY/PA. AS WELL A TROF OF LOW PRES
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OFFSHORE. WHILE THE FORMER FEATURE IS MOISTURE
STARVED AND STRUGGLES TO ALLOW ANY PRECIP TO MOVE IN UNDER
INVERTED RIDGING...THE LATTER WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A WEAK INVERTED TROF DEVELOPS...HANGING
BACK TOWARD MVY AND ACK EARLY IN THE MORNING. EVEN THE MESO-SCALE
GUIDANCE INDICATES WEAK CONVERGENCE IN THE FLOW PATTERN. THE
QUESTION IS WHETHER A BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPS FAR ENOUGH N TO
EFFECT THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. EARLIER GUIDANCE WAS MUCH MORE ROBUST
WITH THIS AND HAVE SINCE BACKED OFF. AS SUCH...WILL LOWER GUIDANCE
MAINLY TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE AREA WITH CHANCE JUST OFFSHORE.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. DO ALREADY
NOTE SOME LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER ACK WITH LATEST OB.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HEIGHTS FALL AS THE GREAT LAKES LOW SHIFTS INTO THE NE CONUS...
TROUGHING TOWARDS THE W-E AXIS OF LOW PRESSURE AND INSTABILITY OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC. LABRADOR RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRY
AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL PERSIST INTO NEW ENGLAND...AHEAD OF WHICH
THE COLLISION TOWARDS LOW PRESSURE AND HIGHER THETA-E AIR WILL
RESULT IN A DEFINED AREA OF CONVERGENCE ACROSS PA/NY...AND
POSSIBLY SE MA.

TO THE W...INCREASING THETA-E MOISTURE LOADING THE MID- TO UPPER-
LEVELS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS W TO
E. BUT STILL A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME BELOW H6-7 ESPECIALLY OVER
E NEW ENGLAND WITH THE INVERTED RIDGE. NOTING THE WARM FRONT WELL W
ACROSS PA/NY ALONG WITH PARENT DYNAMICS AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITHIN AREAS OF DEEP-LAYER ASCENT SHOULD
BE NO FURTHER E OF THE CT-RIVER VALLEY. EXPECTING SPRINKLES. ITS
LIKELY BETTER ACTIVITY WILL BE WELL N/W PARENT WITH BETTER MOISTURE
CONVERGENT ALONG THE NOSE OF THE H925-85 JET INTO THE ADIRONDACKS
ON UP INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC AS DESTABILIZATION CONCLUDES. PREFER
CHANCE POPS ONLY INTO THE CT-VALLEY.

TO THE SE...TROUGHING SE BACKS LOW PRESSURE AND HIGHER THETA-E AIR
OFF THE E-W STALLED FRONT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE CONVERGENCE OF
AIR MASSES ALONG AN INVERTED-TROUGH TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN...EVEN THUNDERSTORMS. MAINLY A
WARM-RAIN PROCESS WITH PWATS UP TO 1.75 INCHES. WHILE A CONSISTENT
SIGNAL AMONG FORECAST SOLUTIONS...OUTCOMES VARY SLIGHTLY LIKELY DUE
TO THE STRENGTH OF INVERTED-RIDGE. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR
NANTUCKET WITH CHANCE POPS INTO THE CAPE AND SE MA. THE SETUP IS
ALREADY COMING TOGETHER SEEN PER IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE...BUT A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AND THE ZONE
SETUP OF CONVERGENCE. WRF/NAM THE MOST ROBUST WITH OUTCOMES. 17Z
HRRR/18Z RAP HAS ACTIVITY MISSING NANTUCKET. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
TO GO HIGH CATEGORICAL POPS.

THICKER CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
ANTICIPATING A MORE MILD NIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WITH LOWS
AROUND THE UPPER-50S. COOLEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS E/SE MA
UNDER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND THE BETTER CHANCE OF RADIATING
OUT...LOWS AROUND THE MID-50S. FOR SUCH AREAS THERE IS ALSO THE
POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY GROUND FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...

CLOSED LOW OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES GRADUALLY WOBBLES INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AS IT TRANSITIONS SW
RE-EMERGING ALONG THE W-E FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
TOWARDS THE BETTER THERMAL-INSTABILITY AXIS.

SUBSEQUENT RISING HEIGHTS ALLOWS RIDGING TO BUILD SW THURSDAY
NIGHT. WHILE HIGHER THETA-E AIR STREAMS ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN
THE MID-LEVELS...E-FLOW WITHIN LOW-LEVELS FROM THE LABRADOR HIGH
UNDERCUTS MOISTURE LOADING ALOFT KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIRLY STABLE
AND DRY...LIKELY TO ERODE ACTIVITY S AND W.

AS THE LOW TRANSITIONS AND WEAKENS...PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS CONCLUDES WITH THE STRENGTHENING INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE. ENERGY AND MOISTURE PARENT TO THE LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO
SWEEP MAINLY ACROSS SW NEW ENGLAND...PERHAPS SW OF A LINE FROM
BOSTON TO KEENE NH. WILL KEEP THESE AREAS UNDER CHANCE POPS
ACCORDINGLY WITH ASCENT AND LIKELY CONVERGENCE AGAINST THE SW
BUILDING RIDGE.

WITH THE UNDERCUTTING DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS OFF THE OCEAN WITH THE
STRENGTHENING RIDGE LATE...AND CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD LIMITING
DESTABILIZATION...NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER. HIGHS AROUND THE MID-
TO UPPER-70S DURING THE DAY WITH LOWS AROUND THE UPPER-50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING
  FRONT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. A
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY MAKE
ITS WAY EAST...MOVING JUST OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRIES TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN U.S.  THE UPPER
TROUGH IS RATHER PERSISTENT THOUGH AND EACH MODEL RUN KEEPS THE
TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE LONGER AND LONGER.

COOLER...LESS SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IN
QUEBEC WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY DRY.  MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR QPF EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF
ANY FORCING MECHANISM AND VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO SPEAK OF...
THINKING THIS COULD BE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK RATHER THAN A DEPICTION
OF ANYTHING LIKELY TO OCCUR.

THE HIGH WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...EVENTUALLY DROPPING SOUTH AND EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND RETURNING US TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW.  LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO
MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC BRINGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.  THIS IS WHERE
MODELS START TO DIVERGE A BIT WITH THE ECMWF A BIT QUICKER THAN THE
GFS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT. DEPENDING ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE
THIS MAY INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. LIGHT/VRB WINDS OVERNIGHT BEFORE PREVAILING E/SE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW-END VFR CIGS SLOWLY BUILDING E ALONG WITH
-RA CHANCES TOWARDS IJD-ORH-AFN. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH SE MA FOR
POTENTIAL +RA AND MVFR-IFR IMPACTS BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO
THU MORNING. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE CLOSER TO FRIDAY
MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. E/SE FLOW PREVAILS. EXPECT
CONDITIONS NO LOWER THAN LOW-END VFR CIGS. -RA CHANCES MINIMAL.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. -RA CHANCES BEGIN TOWARDS
THURSDAY MORNING ALONG WITH LOW-END VFR CIGS. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
THOUGH LOW-CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY
MVFR/IFR FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CLOSELY MONITORING THE SE WATERS. MAY SEE A SURGANCE OF RAIN ALONG
WITH VISIBILITY IMPACTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THURSDAY
ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN E-NE FLOW AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS WELL OUT TO SEA. QUITE POSSIBLE WIND GUST UP TO 25
KTS...BUT WILL HOLD AROUND 20 KTS FOR NOW. WILL KEEP SEAS AROUND 3
TO 4 FEET. CONDITIONS RELAX INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 202303
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
703 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WET WEATHER LIKELY IMPACTING WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEW
ENGLAND BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. DRIER AND
COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS INTO THE WEEKEND. A WARM-UP IS POSSIBLE
INTO NEXT WEEK PRIOR TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SWEEPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...
DIURNAL CU DISSIPATING IN EASTERN NEW ENG...BUT EXPECT AN
EXPANSION OF SC IN THE WEST TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE WEST. ALSO MONITORING LOW CLOUDS SE OF ACK
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND OUTER CAPE
OVERNIGHT. STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST OCEAN
SHOWERS WILL GET ASSOCD WITH AREA OF CONVERGENCE OF HIGHER THETAE
AIR. 18Z NAM/GFS HAVE BACKED OFF AND SO WE LOWERED POPS TO CHC
CATEGORY FOR OUTER CAPE AND ACK AS THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HEIGHTS FALL AS THE GREAT LAKES LOW SHIFTS INTO THE NE CONUS...
TROUGHING TOWARDS THE W-E AXIS OF LOW PRESSURE AND INSTABILITY OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC. LABRADOR RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRY
AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL PERSIST INTO NEW ENGLAND...AHEAD OF WHICH
THE COLLISION TOWARDS LOW PRESSURE AND HIGHER THETA-E AIR WILL
RESULT IN A DEFINED AREA OF CONVERGENCE ACROSS PA/NY...AND
POSSIBLY SE MA.

TO THE W...INCREASING THETA-E MOISTURE LOADING THE MID- TO UPPER-
LEVELS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS W TO
E. BUT STILL A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME BELOW H6-7 ESPECIALLY OVER
E NEW ENGLAND WITH THE INVERTED RIDGE. NOTING THE WARM FRONT WELL W
ACROSS PA/NY ALONG WITH PARENT DYNAMICS AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITHIN AREAS OF DEEP-LAYER ASCENT SHOULD
BE NO FURTHER E OF THE CT-RIVER VALLEY. EXPECTING SPRINKLES. ITS
LIKELY BETTER ACTIVITY WILL BE WELL N/W PARENT WITH BETTER MOISTURE
CONVERGENT ALONG THE NOSE OF THE H925-85 JET INTO THE ADIRONDACKS
ON UP INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC AS DESTABILIZATION CONCLUDES. PREFER
CHANCE POPS ONLY INTO THE CT-VALLEY.

TO THE SE...TROUGHING SE BACKS LOW PRESSURE AND HIGHER THETA-E AIR
OFF THE E-W STALLED FRONT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE CONVERGENCE OF
AIR MASSES ALONG AN INVERTED-TROUGH TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN...EVEN THUNDERSTORMS. MAINLY A
WARM-RAIN PROCESS WITH PWATS UP TO 1.75 INCHES. WHILE A CONSISTENT
SIGNAL AMONG FORECAST SOLUTIONS...OUTCOMES VARY SLIGHTLY LIKELY DUE
TO THE STRENGTH OF INVERTED-RIDGE. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR
NANTUCKET WITH CHANCE POPS INTO THE CAPE AND SE MA. THE SETUP IS
ALREADY COMING TOGETHER SEEN PER IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE...BUT A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AND THE ZONE
SETUP OF CONVERGENCE. WRF/NAM THE MOST ROBUST WITH OUTCOMES. 17Z
HRRR/18Z RAP HAS ACTIVITY MISSING NANTUCKET. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
TO GO HIGH CATEGORICAL POPS.

THICKER CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
ANTICIPATING A MORE MILD NIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WITH LOWS
AROUND THE UPPER-50S. COOLEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS E/SE MA
UNDER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND THE BETTER CHANCE OF RADIATING
OUT...LOWS AROUND THE MID-50S. FOR SUCH AREAS THERE IS ALSO THE
POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY GROUND FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...

CLOSED LOW OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES GRADUALLY WOBBLES INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AS IT TRANSITIONS SW
RE-EMERGING ALONG THE W-E FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
TOWARDS THE BETTER THERMAL-INSTABILITY AXIS.

SUBSEQUENT RISING HEIGHTS ALLOWS RIDGING TO BUILD SW THURSDAY
NIGHT. WHILE HIGHER THETA-E AIR STREAMS ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN
THE MID-LEVELS...E-FLOW WITHIN LOW-LEVELS FROM THE LABRADOR HIGH
UNDERCUTS MOISTURE LOADING ALOFT KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIRLY STABLE
AND DRY...LIKELY TO ERODE ACTIVITY S AND W.

AS THE LOW TRANSITIONS AND WEAKENS...PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS CONCLUDES WITH THE STRENGTHENING INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE. ENERGY AND MOISTURE PARENT TO THE LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO
SWEEP MAINLY ACROSS SW NEW ENGLAND...PERHAPS SW OF A LINE FROM
BOSTON TO KEENE NH. WILL KEEP THESE AREAS UNDER CHANCE POPS
ACCORDINGLY WITH ASCENT AND LIKELY CONVERGENCE AGAINST THE SW
BUILDING RIDGE.

WITH THE UNDERCUTTING DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS OFF THE OCEAN WITH THE
STRENGTHENING RIDGE LATE...AND CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD LIMITING
DESTABILIZATION...NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER. HIGHS AROUND THE MID-
TO UPPER-70S DURING THE DAY WITH LOWS AROUND THE UPPER-50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING
  FRONT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. A
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY MAKE
ITS WAY EAST...MOVING JUST OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRIES TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN U.S.  THE UPPER
TROUGH IS RATHER PERSISTENT THOUGH AND EACH MODEL RUN KEEPS THE
TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE LONGER AND LONGER.

COOLER...LESS SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IN
QUEBEC WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY DRY.  MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR QPF EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF
ANY FORCING MECHANISM AND VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO SPEAK OF...
THINKING THIS COULD BE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK RATHER THAN A DEPICTION
OF ANYTHING LIKELY TO OCCUR.

THE HIGH WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...EVENTUALLY DROPPING SOUTH AND EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND RETURNING US TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW.  LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO
MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC BRINGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.  THIS IS WHERE
MODELS START TO DIVERGE A BIT WITH THE ECMWF A BIT QUICKER THAN THE
GFS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT. DEPENDING ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE
THIS MAY INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. LIGHT/VRB WINDS OVERNIGHT BEFORE PREVAILING E/SE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW-END VFR CIGS SLOWLY BUILDING E ALONG WITH
-RA CHANCES TOWARDS IJD-ORH-AFN. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH SE MA FOR
POTENTIAL +RA AND MVFR-IFR IMPACTS BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO
THU MORNING. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE CLOSER TO FRIDAY
MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. E/SE FLOW PREVAILS. EXPECT
CONDITIONS NO LOWER THAN LOW-END VFR CIGS. -RA CHANCES MINIMAL.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. -RA CHANCES BEGIN TOWARDS
THURSDAY MORNING ALONG WITH LOW-END VFR CIGS. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
THOUGH LOW-CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY
MVFR/IFR FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CLOSELY MONITORING THE SE WATERS. MAY SEE A SURGANCE OF RAIN ALONG
WITH VISIBILITY IMPACTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THURSDAY
ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN E-NE FLOW AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS WELL OUT TO SEA. QUITE POSSIBLE WIND GUST UP TO 25
KTS...BUT WILL HOLD AROUND 20 KTS FOR NOW. WILL KEEP SEAS AROUND 3
TO 4 FEET. CONDITIONS RELAX INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...KJC/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 202303
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
703 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WET WEATHER LIKELY IMPACTING WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEW
ENGLAND BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. DRIER AND
COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS INTO THE WEEKEND. A WARM-UP IS POSSIBLE
INTO NEXT WEEK PRIOR TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SWEEPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...
DIURNAL CU DISSIPATING IN EASTERN NEW ENG...BUT EXPECT AN
EXPANSION OF SC IN THE WEST TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE WEST. ALSO MONITORING LOW CLOUDS SE OF ACK
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND OUTER CAPE
OVERNIGHT. STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST OCEAN
SHOWERS WILL GET ASSOCD WITH AREA OF CONVERGENCE OF HIGHER THETAE
AIR. 18Z NAM/GFS HAVE BACKED OFF AND SO WE LOWERED POPS TO CHC
CATEGORY FOR OUTER CAPE AND ACK AS THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HEIGHTS FALL AS THE GREAT LAKES LOW SHIFTS INTO THE NE CONUS...
TROUGHING TOWARDS THE W-E AXIS OF LOW PRESSURE AND INSTABILITY OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC. LABRADOR RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRY
AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL PERSIST INTO NEW ENGLAND...AHEAD OF WHICH
THE COLLISION TOWARDS LOW PRESSURE AND HIGHER THETA-E AIR WILL
RESULT IN A DEFINED AREA OF CONVERGENCE ACROSS PA/NY...AND
POSSIBLY SE MA.

TO THE W...INCREASING THETA-E MOISTURE LOADING THE MID- TO UPPER-
LEVELS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS W TO
E. BUT STILL A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME BELOW H6-7 ESPECIALLY OVER
E NEW ENGLAND WITH THE INVERTED RIDGE. NOTING THE WARM FRONT WELL W
ACROSS PA/NY ALONG WITH PARENT DYNAMICS AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITHIN AREAS OF DEEP-LAYER ASCENT SHOULD
BE NO FURTHER E OF THE CT-RIVER VALLEY. EXPECTING SPRINKLES. ITS
LIKELY BETTER ACTIVITY WILL BE WELL N/W PARENT WITH BETTER MOISTURE
CONVERGENT ALONG THE NOSE OF THE H925-85 JET INTO THE ADIRONDACKS
ON UP INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC AS DESTABILIZATION CONCLUDES. PREFER
CHANCE POPS ONLY INTO THE CT-VALLEY.

TO THE SE...TROUGHING SE BACKS LOW PRESSURE AND HIGHER THETA-E AIR
OFF THE E-W STALLED FRONT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE CONVERGENCE OF
AIR MASSES ALONG AN INVERTED-TROUGH TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN...EVEN THUNDERSTORMS. MAINLY A
WARM-RAIN PROCESS WITH PWATS UP TO 1.75 INCHES. WHILE A CONSISTENT
SIGNAL AMONG FORECAST SOLUTIONS...OUTCOMES VARY SLIGHTLY LIKELY DUE
TO THE STRENGTH OF INVERTED-RIDGE. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR
NANTUCKET WITH CHANCE POPS INTO THE CAPE AND SE MA. THE SETUP IS
ALREADY COMING TOGETHER SEEN PER IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE...BUT A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AND THE ZONE
SETUP OF CONVERGENCE. WRF/NAM THE MOST ROBUST WITH OUTCOMES. 17Z
HRRR/18Z RAP HAS ACTIVITY MISSING NANTUCKET. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
TO GO HIGH CATEGORICAL POPS.

THICKER CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
ANTICIPATING A MORE MILD NIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WITH LOWS
AROUND THE UPPER-50S. COOLEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS E/SE MA
UNDER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND THE BETTER CHANCE OF RADIATING
OUT...LOWS AROUND THE MID-50S. FOR SUCH AREAS THERE IS ALSO THE
POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY GROUND FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...

CLOSED LOW OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES GRADUALLY WOBBLES INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AS IT TRANSITIONS SW
RE-EMERGING ALONG THE W-E FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
TOWARDS THE BETTER THERMAL-INSTABILITY AXIS.

SUBSEQUENT RISING HEIGHTS ALLOWS RIDGING TO BUILD SW THURSDAY
NIGHT. WHILE HIGHER THETA-E AIR STREAMS ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN
THE MID-LEVELS...E-FLOW WITHIN LOW-LEVELS FROM THE LABRADOR HIGH
UNDERCUTS MOISTURE LOADING ALOFT KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIRLY STABLE
AND DRY...LIKELY TO ERODE ACTIVITY S AND W.

AS THE LOW TRANSITIONS AND WEAKENS...PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS CONCLUDES WITH THE STRENGTHENING INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE. ENERGY AND MOISTURE PARENT TO THE LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO
SWEEP MAINLY ACROSS SW NEW ENGLAND...PERHAPS SW OF A LINE FROM
BOSTON TO KEENE NH. WILL KEEP THESE AREAS UNDER CHANCE POPS
ACCORDINGLY WITH ASCENT AND LIKELY CONVERGENCE AGAINST THE SW
BUILDING RIDGE.

WITH THE UNDERCUTTING DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS OFF THE OCEAN WITH THE
STRENGTHENING RIDGE LATE...AND CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD LIMITING
DESTABILIZATION...NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER. HIGHS AROUND THE MID-
TO UPPER-70S DURING THE DAY WITH LOWS AROUND THE UPPER-50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING
  FRONT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. A
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY MAKE
ITS WAY EAST...MOVING JUST OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRIES TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN U.S.  THE UPPER
TROUGH IS RATHER PERSISTENT THOUGH AND EACH MODEL RUN KEEPS THE
TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE LONGER AND LONGER.

COOLER...LESS SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IN
QUEBEC WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY DRY.  MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR QPF EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF
ANY FORCING MECHANISM AND VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO SPEAK OF...
THINKING THIS COULD BE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK RATHER THAN A DEPICTION
OF ANYTHING LIKELY TO OCCUR.

THE HIGH WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...EVENTUALLY DROPPING SOUTH AND EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND RETURNING US TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW.  LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO
MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC BRINGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.  THIS IS WHERE
MODELS START TO DIVERGE A BIT WITH THE ECMWF A BIT QUICKER THAN THE
GFS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT. DEPENDING ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE
THIS MAY INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. LIGHT/VRB WINDS OVERNIGHT BEFORE PREVAILING E/SE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW-END VFR CIGS SLOWLY BUILDING E ALONG WITH
-RA CHANCES TOWARDS IJD-ORH-AFN. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH SE MA FOR
POTENTIAL +RA AND MVFR-IFR IMPACTS BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO
THU MORNING. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE CLOSER TO FRIDAY
MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. E/SE FLOW PREVAILS. EXPECT
CONDITIONS NO LOWER THAN LOW-END VFR CIGS. -RA CHANCES MINIMAL.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. -RA CHANCES BEGIN TOWARDS
THURSDAY MORNING ALONG WITH LOW-END VFR CIGS. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
THOUGH LOW-CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY
MVFR/IFR FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CLOSELY MONITORING THE SE WATERS. MAY SEE A SURGANCE OF RAIN ALONG
WITH VISIBILITY IMPACTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THURSDAY
ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN E-NE FLOW AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS WELL OUT TO SEA. QUITE POSSIBLE WIND GUST UP TO 25
KTS...BUT WILL HOLD AROUND 20 KTS FOR NOW. WILL KEEP SEAS AROUND 3
TO 4 FEET. CONDITIONS RELAX INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...KJC/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 202303
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
703 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WET WEATHER LIKELY IMPACTING WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEW
ENGLAND BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. DRIER AND
COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS INTO THE WEEKEND. A WARM-UP IS POSSIBLE
INTO NEXT WEEK PRIOR TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SWEEPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...
DIURNAL CU DISSIPATING IN EASTERN NEW ENG...BUT EXPECT AN
EXPANSION OF SC IN THE WEST TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE WEST. ALSO MONITORING LOW CLOUDS SE OF ACK
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND OUTER CAPE
OVERNIGHT. STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST OCEAN
SHOWERS WILL GET ASSOCD WITH AREA OF CONVERGENCE OF HIGHER THETAE
AIR. 18Z NAM/GFS HAVE BACKED OFF AND SO WE LOWERED POPS TO CHC
CATEGORY FOR OUTER CAPE AND ACK AS THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HEIGHTS FALL AS THE GREAT LAKES LOW SHIFTS INTO THE NE CONUS...
TROUGHING TOWARDS THE W-E AXIS OF LOW PRESSURE AND INSTABILITY OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC. LABRADOR RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRY
AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL PERSIST INTO NEW ENGLAND...AHEAD OF WHICH
THE COLLISION TOWARDS LOW PRESSURE AND HIGHER THETA-E AIR WILL
RESULT IN A DEFINED AREA OF CONVERGENCE ACROSS PA/NY...AND
POSSIBLY SE MA.

TO THE W...INCREASING THETA-E MOISTURE LOADING THE MID- TO UPPER-
LEVELS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS W TO
E. BUT STILL A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME BELOW H6-7 ESPECIALLY OVER
E NEW ENGLAND WITH THE INVERTED RIDGE. NOTING THE WARM FRONT WELL W
ACROSS PA/NY ALONG WITH PARENT DYNAMICS AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITHIN AREAS OF DEEP-LAYER ASCENT SHOULD
BE NO FURTHER E OF THE CT-RIVER VALLEY. EXPECTING SPRINKLES. ITS
LIKELY BETTER ACTIVITY WILL BE WELL N/W PARENT WITH BETTER MOISTURE
CONVERGENT ALONG THE NOSE OF THE H925-85 JET INTO THE ADIRONDACKS
ON UP INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC AS DESTABILIZATION CONCLUDES. PREFER
CHANCE POPS ONLY INTO THE CT-VALLEY.

TO THE SE...TROUGHING SE BACKS LOW PRESSURE AND HIGHER THETA-E AIR
OFF THE E-W STALLED FRONT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE CONVERGENCE OF
AIR MASSES ALONG AN INVERTED-TROUGH TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN...EVEN THUNDERSTORMS. MAINLY A
WARM-RAIN PROCESS WITH PWATS UP TO 1.75 INCHES. WHILE A CONSISTENT
SIGNAL AMONG FORECAST SOLUTIONS...OUTCOMES VARY SLIGHTLY LIKELY DUE
TO THE STRENGTH OF INVERTED-RIDGE. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR
NANTUCKET WITH CHANCE POPS INTO THE CAPE AND SE MA. THE SETUP IS
ALREADY COMING TOGETHER SEEN PER IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE...BUT A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AND THE ZONE
SETUP OF CONVERGENCE. WRF/NAM THE MOST ROBUST WITH OUTCOMES. 17Z
HRRR/18Z RAP HAS ACTIVITY MISSING NANTUCKET. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
TO GO HIGH CATEGORICAL POPS.

THICKER CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
ANTICIPATING A MORE MILD NIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WITH LOWS
AROUND THE UPPER-50S. COOLEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS E/SE MA
UNDER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND THE BETTER CHANCE OF RADIATING
OUT...LOWS AROUND THE MID-50S. FOR SUCH AREAS THERE IS ALSO THE
POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY GROUND FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...

CLOSED LOW OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES GRADUALLY WOBBLES INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AS IT TRANSITIONS SW
RE-EMERGING ALONG THE W-E FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
TOWARDS THE BETTER THERMAL-INSTABILITY AXIS.

SUBSEQUENT RISING HEIGHTS ALLOWS RIDGING TO BUILD SW THURSDAY
NIGHT. WHILE HIGHER THETA-E AIR STREAMS ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN
THE MID-LEVELS...E-FLOW WITHIN LOW-LEVELS FROM THE LABRADOR HIGH
UNDERCUTS MOISTURE LOADING ALOFT KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIRLY STABLE
AND DRY...LIKELY TO ERODE ACTIVITY S AND W.

AS THE LOW TRANSITIONS AND WEAKENS...PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS CONCLUDES WITH THE STRENGTHENING INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE. ENERGY AND MOISTURE PARENT TO THE LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO
SWEEP MAINLY ACROSS SW NEW ENGLAND...PERHAPS SW OF A LINE FROM
BOSTON TO KEENE NH. WILL KEEP THESE AREAS UNDER CHANCE POPS
ACCORDINGLY WITH ASCENT AND LIKELY CONVERGENCE AGAINST THE SW
BUILDING RIDGE.

WITH THE UNDERCUTTING DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS OFF THE OCEAN WITH THE
STRENGTHENING RIDGE LATE...AND CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD LIMITING
DESTABILIZATION...NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER. HIGHS AROUND THE MID-
TO UPPER-70S DURING THE DAY WITH LOWS AROUND THE UPPER-50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING
  FRONT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. A
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY MAKE
ITS WAY EAST...MOVING JUST OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRIES TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN U.S.  THE UPPER
TROUGH IS RATHER PERSISTENT THOUGH AND EACH MODEL RUN KEEPS THE
TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE LONGER AND LONGER.

COOLER...LESS SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IN
QUEBEC WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY DRY.  MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR QPF EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF
ANY FORCING MECHANISM AND VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO SPEAK OF...
THINKING THIS COULD BE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK RATHER THAN A DEPICTION
OF ANYTHING LIKELY TO OCCUR.

THE HIGH WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...EVENTUALLY DROPPING SOUTH AND EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND RETURNING US TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW.  LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO
MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC BRINGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.  THIS IS WHERE
MODELS START TO DIVERGE A BIT WITH THE ECMWF A BIT QUICKER THAN THE
GFS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT. DEPENDING ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE
THIS MAY INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. LIGHT/VRB WINDS OVERNIGHT BEFORE PREVAILING E/SE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW-END VFR CIGS SLOWLY BUILDING E ALONG WITH
-RA CHANCES TOWARDS IJD-ORH-AFN. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH SE MA FOR
POTENTIAL +RA AND MVFR-IFR IMPACTS BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO
THU MORNING. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE CLOSER TO FRIDAY
MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. E/SE FLOW PREVAILS. EXPECT
CONDITIONS NO LOWER THAN LOW-END VFR CIGS. -RA CHANCES MINIMAL.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. -RA CHANCES BEGIN TOWARDS
THURSDAY MORNING ALONG WITH LOW-END VFR CIGS. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
THOUGH LOW-CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY
MVFR/IFR FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CLOSELY MONITORING THE SE WATERS. MAY SEE A SURGANCE OF RAIN ALONG
WITH VISIBILITY IMPACTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THURSDAY
ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN E-NE FLOW AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS WELL OUT TO SEA. QUITE POSSIBLE WIND GUST UP TO 25
KTS...BUT WILL HOLD AROUND 20 KTS FOR NOW. WILL KEEP SEAS AROUND 3
TO 4 FEET. CONDITIONS RELAX INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...KJC/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 202303
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
703 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WET WEATHER LIKELY IMPACTING WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEW
ENGLAND BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. DRIER AND
COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS INTO THE WEEKEND. A WARM-UP IS POSSIBLE
INTO NEXT WEEK PRIOR TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SWEEPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...
DIURNAL CU DISSIPATING IN EASTERN NEW ENG...BUT EXPECT AN
EXPANSION OF SC IN THE WEST TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE WEST. ALSO MONITORING LOW CLOUDS SE OF ACK
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND OUTER CAPE
OVERNIGHT. STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST OCEAN
SHOWERS WILL GET ASSOCD WITH AREA OF CONVERGENCE OF HIGHER THETAE
AIR. 18Z NAM/GFS HAVE BACKED OFF AND SO WE LOWERED POPS TO CHC
CATEGORY FOR OUTER CAPE AND ACK AS THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HEIGHTS FALL AS THE GREAT LAKES LOW SHIFTS INTO THE NE CONUS...
TROUGHING TOWARDS THE W-E AXIS OF LOW PRESSURE AND INSTABILITY OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC. LABRADOR RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRY
AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL PERSIST INTO NEW ENGLAND...AHEAD OF WHICH
THE COLLISION TOWARDS LOW PRESSURE AND HIGHER THETA-E AIR WILL
RESULT IN A DEFINED AREA OF CONVERGENCE ACROSS PA/NY...AND
POSSIBLY SE MA.

TO THE W...INCREASING THETA-E MOISTURE LOADING THE MID- TO UPPER-
LEVELS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS W TO
E. BUT STILL A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME BELOW H6-7 ESPECIALLY OVER
E NEW ENGLAND WITH THE INVERTED RIDGE. NOTING THE WARM FRONT WELL W
ACROSS PA/NY ALONG WITH PARENT DYNAMICS AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITHIN AREAS OF DEEP-LAYER ASCENT SHOULD
BE NO FURTHER E OF THE CT-RIVER VALLEY. EXPECTING SPRINKLES. ITS
LIKELY BETTER ACTIVITY WILL BE WELL N/W PARENT WITH BETTER MOISTURE
CONVERGENT ALONG THE NOSE OF THE H925-85 JET INTO THE ADIRONDACKS
ON UP INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC AS DESTABILIZATION CONCLUDES. PREFER
CHANCE POPS ONLY INTO THE CT-VALLEY.

TO THE SE...TROUGHING SE BACKS LOW PRESSURE AND HIGHER THETA-E AIR
OFF THE E-W STALLED FRONT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE CONVERGENCE OF
AIR MASSES ALONG AN INVERTED-TROUGH TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN...EVEN THUNDERSTORMS. MAINLY A
WARM-RAIN PROCESS WITH PWATS UP TO 1.75 INCHES. WHILE A CONSISTENT
SIGNAL AMONG FORECAST SOLUTIONS...OUTCOMES VARY SLIGHTLY LIKELY DUE
TO THE STRENGTH OF INVERTED-RIDGE. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR
NANTUCKET WITH CHANCE POPS INTO THE CAPE AND SE MA. THE SETUP IS
ALREADY COMING TOGETHER SEEN PER IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE...BUT A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AND THE ZONE
SETUP OF CONVERGENCE. WRF/NAM THE MOST ROBUST WITH OUTCOMES. 17Z
HRRR/18Z RAP HAS ACTIVITY MISSING NANTUCKET. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
TO GO HIGH CATEGORICAL POPS.

THICKER CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
ANTICIPATING A MORE MILD NIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WITH LOWS
AROUND THE UPPER-50S. COOLEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS E/SE MA
UNDER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND THE BETTER CHANCE OF RADIATING
OUT...LOWS AROUND THE MID-50S. FOR SUCH AREAS THERE IS ALSO THE
POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY GROUND FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...

CLOSED LOW OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES GRADUALLY WOBBLES INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AS IT TRANSITIONS SW
RE-EMERGING ALONG THE W-E FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
TOWARDS THE BETTER THERMAL-INSTABILITY AXIS.

SUBSEQUENT RISING HEIGHTS ALLOWS RIDGING TO BUILD SW THURSDAY
NIGHT. WHILE HIGHER THETA-E AIR STREAMS ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN
THE MID-LEVELS...E-FLOW WITHIN LOW-LEVELS FROM THE LABRADOR HIGH
UNDERCUTS MOISTURE LOADING ALOFT KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIRLY STABLE
AND DRY...LIKELY TO ERODE ACTIVITY S AND W.

AS THE LOW TRANSITIONS AND WEAKENS...PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS CONCLUDES WITH THE STRENGTHENING INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE. ENERGY AND MOISTURE PARENT TO THE LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO
SWEEP MAINLY ACROSS SW NEW ENGLAND...PERHAPS SW OF A LINE FROM
BOSTON TO KEENE NH. WILL KEEP THESE AREAS UNDER CHANCE POPS
ACCORDINGLY WITH ASCENT AND LIKELY CONVERGENCE AGAINST THE SW
BUILDING RIDGE.

WITH THE UNDERCUTTING DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS OFF THE OCEAN WITH THE
STRENGTHENING RIDGE LATE...AND CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD LIMITING
DESTABILIZATION...NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER. HIGHS AROUND THE MID-
TO UPPER-70S DURING THE DAY WITH LOWS AROUND THE UPPER-50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING
  FRONT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. A
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY MAKE
ITS WAY EAST...MOVING JUST OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRIES TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN U.S.  THE UPPER
TROUGH IS RATHER PERSISTENT THOUGH AND EACH MODEL RUN KEEPS THE
TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE LONGER AND LONGER.

COOLER...LESS SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IN
QUEBEC WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY DRY.  MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR QPF EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF
ANY FORCING MECHANISM AND VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO SPEAK OF...
THINKING THIS COULD BE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK RATHER THAN A DEPICTION
OF ANYTHING LIKELY TO OCCUR.

THE HIGH WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...EVENTUALLY DROPPING SOUTH AND EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND RETURNING US TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW.  LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO
MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC BRINGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.  THIS IS WHERE
MODELS START TO DIVERGE A BIT WITH THE ECMWF A BIT QUICKER THAN THE
GFS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT. DEPENDING ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE
THIS MAY INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. LIGHT/VRB WINDS OVERNIGHT BEFORE PREVAILING E/SE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW-END VFR CIGS SLOWLY BUILDING E ALONG WITH
-RA CHANCES TOWARDS IJD-ORH-AFN. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH SE MA FOR
POTENTIAL +RA AND MVFR-IFR IMPACTS BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO
THU MORNING. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE CLOSER TO FRIDAY
MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. E/SE FLOW PREVAILS. EXPECT
CONDITIONS NO LOWER THAN LOW-END VFR CIGS. -RA CHANCES MINIMAL.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. -RA CHANCES BEGIN TOWARDS
THURSDAY MORNING ALONG WITH LOW-END VFR CIGS. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
THOUGH LOW-CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY
MVFR/IFR FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CLOSELY MONITORING THE SE WATERS. MAY SEE A SURGANCE OF RAIN ALONG
WITH VISIBILITY IMPACTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THURSDAY
ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN E-NE FLOW AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS WELL OUT TO SEA. QUITE POSSIBLE WIND GUST UP TO 25
KTS...BUT WILL HOLD AROUND 20 KTS FOR NOW. WILL KEEP SEAS AROUND 3
TO 4 FEET. CONDITIONS RELAX INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...KJC/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 202009
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
409 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

WET WEATHER LIKELY IMPACTING WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEW
ENGLAND BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. DRIER AND
COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS INTO THE WEEKEND. A WARM-UP IS POSSIBLE
INTO NEXT WEEK PRIOR TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SWEEPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

INTO THIS EVENING...

DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE CONCLUSION OF DAYTIME
MIXING. HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
FROM THE CONVECTION ONGOING OVER NY/PA. ALSO MONITORING THE AREA
SE OF NANTUCKET WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR
IS LIKELY ONGOING LENDING TO SOME LOW CLOUDS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY
TO FILTER ACROSS THE ISLAND TOWARDS THE CAPE AS WE GO INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. WILL SEE WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

TONIGHT...

HEIGHTS FALL AS THE GREAT LAKES LOW SHIFTS INTO THE NE CONUS...
TROUGHING TOWARDS THE W-E AXIS OF LOW PRESSURE AND INSTABILITY
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC. LABRADOR RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL PERSIST INTO NEW ENGLAND...AHEAD OF
WHICH THE COLLISION TOWARDS LOW PRESSURE AND HIGHER THETA-E AIR
WILL RESULT IN A DEFINED AREA OF CONVERGENCE ACROSS PA/NY...AND
POSSIBLY SE MA.

TO THE W...INCREASING THETA-E MOISTURE LOADING THE MID- TO UPPER-
LEVELS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS W TO
E. BUT STILL A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME BELOW H6-7 ESPECIALLY OVER
E NEW ENGLAND WITH THE INVERTED RIDGE. NOTING THE WARM FRONT WELL W
ACROSS PA/NY ALONG WITH PARENT DYNAMICS AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITHIN AREAS OF DEEP-LAYER ASCENT SHOULD
BE NO FURTHER E OF THE CT-RIVER VALLEY. EXPECTING SPRINKLES. ITS
LIKELY BETTER ACTIVITY WILL BE WELL N/W PARENT WITH BETTER MOISTURE
CONVERGENT ALONG THE NOSE OF THE H925-85 JET INTO THE ADIRONDACKS
ON UP INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC AS DESTABILIZATION CONCLUDES. PREFER
CHANCE POPS ONLY INTO THE CT-VALLEY.

TO THE SE...TROUGHING SE BACKS LOW PRESSURE AND HIGHER THETA-E AIR
OFF THE E-W STALLED FRONT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE CONVERGENCE OF
AIR MASSES ALONG AN INVERTED-TROUGH TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN...EVEN THUNDERSTORMS. MAINLY A
WARM-RAIN PROCESS WITH PWATS UP TO 1.75 INCHES. WHILE A CONSISTENT
SIGNAL AMONG FORECAST SOLUTIONS...OUTCOMES VARY SLIGHTLY LIKELY DUE
TO THE STRENGTH OF INVERTED-RIDGE. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR
NANTUCKET WITH CHANCE POPS INTO THE CAPE AND SE MA. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER WITH AT LEAST A LITTLE INSTABILITY PRESENT. THE SETUP
IS ALREADY COMING TOGETHER SEEN PER IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE...BUT A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AND THE ZONE
SETUP OF CONVERGENCE. WRF/NAM THE MOST ROBUST WITH OUTCOMES. 17Z
HRRR/18Z RAP HAS ACTIVITY MISSING NANTUCKET. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
TO GO HIGH CATEGORICAL POPS.

THICKER CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
ANTICIPATING A MORE MILD NIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WITH LOWS
AROUND THE UPPER-50S. COOLEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS E/SE MA
UNDER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND THE BETTER CHANCE OF RADIATING
OUT...LOWS AROUND THE MID-50S. FOR SUCH AREAS THERE IS ALSO THE
POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY GROUND FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...

CLOSED LOW OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES GRADUALLY WOBBLES INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AS IT TRANSITIONS SW
RE-EMERGING ALONG THE W-E FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
TOWARDS THE BETTER THERMAL-INSTABILITY AXIS.

SUBSEQUENT RISING HEIGHTS ALLOWS RIDGING TO BUILD SW THURSDAY
NIGHT. WHILE HIGHER THETA-E AIR STREAMS ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN
THE MID-LEVELS...E-FLOW WITHIN LOW-LEVELS FROM THE LABRADOR HIGH
UNDERCUTS MOISTURE LOADING ALOFT KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIRLY STABLE
AND DRY...LIKELY TO ERODE ACTIVITY S AND W.

AS THE LOW TRANSITIONS AND WEAKENS...PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS CONCLUDES WITH THE STRENGTHENING INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE. ENERGY AND MOISTURE PARENT TO THE LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO
SWEEP MAINLY ACROSS SW NEW ENGLAND...PERHAPS SW OF A LINE FROM
BOSTON TO KEENE NH. WILL KEEP THESE AREAS UNDER CHANCE POPS
ACCORDINGLY WITH ASCENT AND LIKELY CONVERGENCE AGAINST THE SW
BUILDING RIDGE.

WITH THE UNDERCUTTING DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS OFF THE OCEAN WITH THE
STRENGTHENING RIDGE LATE...AND CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD LIMITING
DESTABILIZATION...NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER. HIGHS AROUND THE MID-
TO UPPER-70S DURING THE DAY WITH LOWS AROUND THE UPPER-50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING
  FRONT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. A
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY MAKE
ITS WAY EAST...MOVING JUST OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRIES TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN U.S.  THE UPPER
TROUGH IS RATHER PERSISTENT THOUGH AND EACH MODEL RUN KEEPS THE
TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE LONGER AND LONGER.

COOLER...LESS SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IN
QUEBEC WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY DRY.  MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR QPF EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF
ANY FORCING MECHANISM AND VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO SPEAK OF...
THINKING THIS COULD BE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK RATHER THAN A DEPICTION
OF ANYTHING LIKELY TO OCCUR.

THE HIGH WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...EVENTUALLY DROPPING SOUTH AND EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND RETURNING US TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW.  LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO
MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC BRINGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.  THIS IS WHERE
MODELS START TO DIVERGE A BIT WITH THE ECMWF A BIT QUICKER THAN THE
GFS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT. DEPENDING ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE
THIS MAY INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. SEA-BREEZES CONTINUE...BECOMING LIGHT/VRB OVERNIGHT BEFORE
PREVAILING E/SE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW-END VFR CIGS
SLOWLY BUILDING E ALONG WITH -RA CHANCES TOWARDS IJD-ORH-AFN. WILL
ALSO NEED TO WATCH SE MA FOR POTENTIAL +RA AND MVFR-IFR IMPACTS
BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE
CLOSER TO FRIDAY MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. E/SE FLOW PREVAILS. EXPECT
CONDITIONS NO LOWER THAN LOW-END VFR CIGS. -RA CHANCES MINIMAL.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. -RA CHANCES BEGIN TOWARDS
THURSDAY MORNING ALONG WITH LOW-END VFR CIGS. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
THOUGH LOW-CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY
MVFR/IFR FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CLOSELY MONITORING THE SE WATERS. MAY SEE A SURGANCE OF RAIN ALONG
WITH VISIBILITY IMPACTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THURSDAY
ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN E-NE FLOW AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS WELL OUT TO SEA. QUITE POSSIBLE WIND GUST UP TO 25
KTS...BUT WILL HOLD AROUND 20 KTS FOR NOW. WILL KEEP SEAS AROUND 3
TO 4 FEET. CONDITIONS RELAX INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 202009
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
409 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

WET WEATHER LIKELY IMPACTING WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEW
ENGLAND BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. DRIER AND
COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS INTO THE WEEKEND. A WARM-UP IS POSSIBLE
INTO NEXT WEEK PRIOR TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SWEEPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

INTO THIS EVENING...

DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE CONCLUSION OF DAYTIME
MIXING. HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
FROM THE CONVECTION ONGOING OVER NY/PA. ALSO MONITORING THE AREA
SE OF NANTUCKET WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR
IS LIKELY ONGOING LENDING TO SOME LOW CLOUDS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY
TO FILTER ACROSS THE ISLAND TOWARDS THE CAPE AS WE GO INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. WILL SEE WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

TONIGHT...

HEIGHTS FALL AS THE GREAT LAKES LOW SHIFTS INTO THE NE CONUS...
TROUGHING TOWARDS THE W-E AXIS OF LOW PRESSURE AND INSTABILITY
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC. LABRADOR RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL PERSIST INTO NEW ENGLAND...AHEAD OF
WHICH THE COLLISION TOWARDS LOW PRESSURE AND HIGHER THETA-E AIR
WILL RESULT IN A DEFINED AREA OF CONVERGENCE ACROSS PA/NY...AND
POSSIBLY SE MA.

TO THE W...INCREASING THETA-E MOISTURE LOADING THE MID- TO UPPER-
LEVELS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS W TO
E. BUT STILL A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME BELOW H6-7 ESPECIALLY OVER
E NEW ENGLAND WITH THE INVERTED RIDGE. NOTING THE WARM FRONT WELL W
ACROSS PA/NY ALONG WITH PARENT DYNAMICS AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITHIN AREAS OF DEEP-LAYER ASCENT SHOULD
BE NO FURTHER E OF THE CT-RIVER VALLEY. EXPECTING SPRINKLES. ITS
LIKELY BETTER ACTIVITY WILL BE WELL N/W PARENT WITH BETTER MOISTURE
CONVERGENT ALONG THE NOSE OF THE H925-85 JET INTO THE ADIRONDACKS
ON UP INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC AS DESTABILIZATION CONCLUDES. PREFER
CHANCE POPS ONLY INTO THE CT-VALLEY.

TO THE SE...TROUGHING SE BACKS LOW PRESSURE AND HIGHER THETA-E AIR
OFF THE E-W STALLED FRONT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE CONVERGENCE OF
AIR MASSES ALONG AN INVERTED-TROUGH TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN...EVEN THUNDERSTORMS. MAINLY A
WARM-RAIN PROCESS WITH PWATS UP TO 1.75 INCHES. WHILE A CONSISTENT
SIGNAL AMONG FORECAST SOLUTIONS...OUTCOMES VARY SLIGHTLY LIKELY DUE
TO THE STRENGTH OF INVERTED-RIDGE. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR
NANTUCKET WITH CHANCE POPS INTO THE CAPE AND SE MA. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER WITH AT LEAST A LITTLE INSTABILITY PRESENT. THE SETUP
IS ALREADY COMING TOGETHER SEEN PER IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE...BUT A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AND THE ZONE
SETUP OF CONVERGENCE. WRF/NAM THE MOST ROBUST WITH OUTCOMES. 17Z
HRRR/18Z RAP HAS ACTIVITY MISSING NANTUCKET. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
TO GO HIGH CATEGORICAL POPS.

THICKER CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
ANTICIPATING A MORE MILD NIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WITH LOWS
AROUND THE UPPER-50S. COOLEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS E/SE MA
UNDER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND THE BETTER CHANCE OF RADIATING
OUT...LOWS AROUND THE MID-50S. FOR SUCH AREAS THERE IS ALSO THE
POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY GROUND FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...

CLOSED LOW OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES GRADUALLY WOBBLES INTO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AS IT TRANSITIONS SW
RE-EMERGING ALONG THE W-E FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
TOWARDS THE BETTER THERMAL-INSTABILITY AXIS.

SUBSEQUENT RISING HEIGHTS ALLOWS RIDGING TO BUILD SW THURSDAY
NIGHT. WHILE HIGHER THETA-E AIR STREAMS ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN
THE MID-LEVELS...E-FLOW WITHIN LOW-LEVELS FROM THE LABRADOR HIGH
UNDERCUTS MOISTURE LOADING ALOFT KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIRLY STABLE
AND DRY...LIKELY TO ERODE ACTIVITY S AND W.

AS THE LOW TRANSITIONS AND WEAKENS...PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS CONCLUDES WITH THE STRENGTHENING INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE. ENERGY AND MOISTURE PARENT TO THE LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO
SWEEP MAINLY ACROSS SW NEW ENGLAND...PERHAPS SW OF A LINE FROM
BOSTON TO KEENE NH. WILL KEEP THESE AREAS UNDER CHANCE POPS
ACCORDINGLY WITH ASCENT AND LIKELY CONVERGENCE AGAINST THE SW
BUILDING RIDGE.

WITH THE UNDERCUTTING DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS OFF THE OCEAN WITH THE
STRENGTHENING RIDGE LATE...AND CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD LIMITING
DESTABILIZATION...NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER. HIGHS AROUND THE MID-
TO UPPER-70S DURING THE DAY WITH LOWS AROUND THE UPPER-50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING
  FRONT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. A
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY MAKE
ITS WAY EAST...MOVING JUST OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRIES TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN U.S.  THE UPPER
TROUGH IS RATHER PERSISTENT THOUGH AND EACH MODEL RUN KEEPS THE
TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE LONGER AND LONGER.

COOLER...LESS SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IN
QUEBEC WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY DRY.  MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR QPF EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF
ANY FORCING MECHANISM AND VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO SPEAK OF...
THINKING THIS COULD BE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK RATHER THAN A DEPICTION
OF ANYTHING LIKELY TO OCCUR.

THE HIGH WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...EVENTUALLY DROPPING SOUTH AND EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND RETURNING US TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW.  LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO
MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC BRINGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.  THIS IS WHERE
MODELS START TO DIVERGE A BIT WITH THE ECMWF A BIT QUICKER THAN THE
GFS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT. DEPENDING ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE
THIS MAY INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. SEA-BREEZES CONTINUE...BECOMING LIGHT/VRB OVERNIGHT BEFORE
PREVAILING E/SE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW-END VFR CIGS
SLOWLY BUILDING E ALONG WITH -RA CHANCES TOWARDS IJD-ORH-AFN. WILL
ALSO NEED TO WATCH SE MA FOR POTENTIAL +RA AND MVFR-IFR IMPACTS
BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE
CLOSER TO FRIDAY MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. E/SE FLOW PREVAILS. EXPECT
CONDITIONS NO LOWER THAN LOW-END VFR CIGS. -RA CHANCES MINIMAL.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. -RA CHANCES BEGIN TOWARDS
THURSDAY MORNING ALONG WITH LOW-END VFR CIGS. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
THOUGH LOW-CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY
MVFR/IFR FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

CLOSELY MONITORING THE SE WATERS. MAY SEE A SURGANCE OF RAIN ALONG
WITH VISIBILITY IMPACTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THURSDAY
ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN E-NE FLOW AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS WELL OUT TO SEA. QUITE POSSIBLE WIND GUST UP TO 25
KTS...BUT WILL HOLD AROUND 20 KTS FOR NOW. WILL KEEP SEAS AROUND 3
TO 4 FEET. CONDITIONS RELAX INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 201804
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
204 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

MAINLY DRY WEATHER...EXCEPT MAYBE A SHOWER IN THE WEST...WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. PATTERN STARTS TO BECOME A BIT MORE UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

2 PM UPDATE...

DRY AND QUIET WEATHER. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE E/NE
RESULTING IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. SEA-BREEZES PROGRESSING
TOWARDS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND AS A RESULT OF BOTH THE PRESSURE AND
THERMAL GRADIENT. FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...
BROKEN MORESO OVER THE BERKSHIRES SUBSEQUENT OF HIGHER THETA-E
AIR WRAPPING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING CLOSED LOW OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND CONVERGING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WILL KEEP WITH A DRY FORECAST WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. HIGHS
INTO THE LOW-80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH A FEW LOCALES MAXING OUT
IN THE MID-80S...COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG THE SHORELINE WITH SEA-
BREEZES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...

THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND GRADUALLY OPENING UPPER LVL
CUTOFF...COMBINED WITH GRADUAL MOISTURE LOADING OF THE COLUMN IS
LIKELY TO LEAD TO MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION THAN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION A SHOWER IS ABLE TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE W...BUT BOTH JET AND VORTICITY RELATED DYNAMICS ARE QUITE
WEAK AND OVERALL COLUMN MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW UNTIL THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST EXCEPT THE EXTREME WRN FRINGES OF THE BOX CWA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...GIVEN THE INCREASED MOISTURE /CLOUD
COVER/ AND WARMER EVENING TEMPERATURES EXPECT THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS IN SPITE OF THE NEAR CALM FLOW
ONCE AGAIN. MORE WIDESPREAD MID 50S WITH EVEN SOME NORMAL HEAT
ISLANDS HOLDING IN THE LOW-MID 60S ARE EXPECTED.

THURSDAY...

INVERTED RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE...AND MAINLY E-SE FLOW EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION. THE MARINE INFLUENCE IS LIKELY TO STAVE OFF
APPROACHING WARM FRONT AS IT/S ATTENDANT UPPER LVL CUTOFF
DIMINISHES TO AN OPEN WAVE WITH CUTOFF HIGH PRES TO THE N. UPPER
LVL AND LOW LVL JETS ARE WEAK AND WITH OVERALL VORTICITY
DECREASING...THEREFORE DYNAMIC FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK EVEN AS
OVERALL COLUMN MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY /PWATS APPROACH
1.75 INCHES/. ALSO...WITH MARINE FLOW AND WARM FRONT TRAPPED TO
THE W...IT/S UNLIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE MUCH DESTABILIZATION
THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN ALL OF THIS...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERY
ACTIVITY REMAINS FAIRLY LOW. WILL FOCUS ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS W OF
THE CT VALLEY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE WORCESTER HILLS.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIVE TO THE SW OF THE REGION WHERE
INSTABILITY AXIS RESIDES. HAVE KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST
WITH THIS UPDATE DUE TO THE MARINE FLOW AND MODEST LAPSE RATES.
THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND MARINE FLOW ARE ALSO LIKELY TO KEEP
HIGH TEMPS COOLER THAN NORMAL /MAINLY MID 70S/ DURING THE DAY THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT

RATHER UNIQUE AND STABLE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN
LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND. 20/00Z GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...THEN MORE DIFFERENCES APPEAR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A CONSENSUS BLEND TO SMOOTH OVER
THE MORE MINOR DIFFERENCES.

HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY DRY ACROSS MOST
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY NIGHT IF SOME MOVING PARTS COME TOGETHER. MOISTURE IS THE
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR...WITH INSTABILITY A CLOSE SECOND ONCE THE SUN
SETS.

THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY DROPPING SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
RETURNING US TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW. A LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO MAY
EVENTUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC...SWINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SOMETIME TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...THIS FRONT MAY INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. SEA-BREEZES CONTINUE...BECOMING LIGHT/VRB OVERNIGHT BEFORE
PREVAILING E/SE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW-END VFR CIGS
SLOWLY BUILDING E ALONG WITH -RA CHANCES TOWARDS IJD-ORH-AFN. WILL
ALSO NEED TO WATCH SE MA FOR POTENTIAL +RA AND MVFR-IFR IMPACTS
BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE
CLOSER TO FRIDAY MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. E/SE FLOW PREVAILS. EXPECT
CONDITIONS NO LOWER THAN LOW-END VFR CIGS. -RA CHANCES MINIMAL.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. -RA CHANCES BEGIN TOWARDS
THURSDAY MORNING ALONG WITH LOW-END VFR CIGS. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
THOUGH LOW-CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY
MVFR/IFR FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER CONTINUES. WINDS REMAIN MAINLY E
TO SE WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 15 KT POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
OUTER EDGE OF THE S AND SE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES. SEAS
MAY INCREASE ON THE OUTER WATERS THIS WEEKEND AS AN OCEAN STORM
PASSES WELL EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS. WNA WAVE
GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE TOO HIGH BASED ON EXPECTED WINDS...LOWERED THIS
GUIDANCE BY 20 PERCENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 201804
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
204 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

MAINLY DRY WEATHER...EXCEPT MAYBE A SHOWER IN THE WEST...WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. PATTERN STARTS TO BECOME A BIT MORE UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

2 PM UPDATE...

DRY AND QUIET WEATHER. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE E/NE
RESULTING IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. SEA-BREEZES PROGRESSING
TOWARDS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND AS A RESULT OF BOTH THE PRESSURE AND
THERMAL GRADIENT. FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...
BROKEN MORESO OVER THE BERKSHIRES SUBSEQUENT OF HIGHER THETA-E
AIR WRAPPING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING CLOSED LOW OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND CONVERGING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WILL KEEP WITH A DRY FORECAST WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. HIGHS
INTO THE LOW-80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH A FEW LOCALES MAXING OUT
IN THE MID-80S...COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG THE SHORELINE WITH SEA-
BREEZES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...

THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND GRADUALLY OPENING UPPER LVL
CUTOFF...COMBINED WITH GRADUAL MOISTURE LOADING OF THE COLUMN IS
LIKELY TO LEAD TO MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION THAN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION A SHOWER IS ABLE TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE W...BUT BOTH JET AND VORTICITY RELATED DYNAMICS ARE QUITE
WEAK AND OVERALL COLUMN MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW UNTIL THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST EXCEPT THE EXTREME WRN FRINGES OF THE BOX CWA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...GIVEN THE INCREASED MOISTURE /CLOUD
COVER/ AND WARMER EVENING TEMPERATURES EXPECT THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS IN SPITE OF THE NEAR CALM FLOW
ONCE AGAIN. MORE WIDESPREAD MID 50S WITH EVEN SOME NORMAL HEAT
ISLANDS HOLDING IN THE LOW-MID 60S ARE EXPECTED.

THURSDAY...

INVERTED RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE...AND MAINLY E-SE FLOW EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION. THE MARINE INFLUENCE IS LIKELY TO STAVE OFF
APPROACHING WARM FRONT AS IT/S ATTENDANT UPPER LVL CUTOFF
DIMINISHES TO AN OPEN WAVE WITH CUTOFF HIGH PRES TO THE N. UPPER
LVL AND LOW LVL JETS ARE WEAK AND WITH OVERALL VORTICITY
DECREASING...THEREFORE DYNAMIC FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK EVEN AS
OVERALL COLUMN MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY /PWATS APPROACH
1.75 INCHES/. ALSO...WITH MARINE FLOW AND WARM FRONT TRAPPED TO
THE W...IT/S UNLIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE MUCH DESTABILIZATION
THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN ALL OF THIS...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERY
ACTIVITY REMAINS FAIRLY LOW. WILL FOCUS ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS W OF
THE CT VALLEY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE WORCESTER HILLS.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIVE TO THE SW OF THE REGION WHERE
INSTABILITY AXIS RESIDES. HAVE KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST
WITH THIS UPDATE DUE TO THE MARINE FLOW AND MODEST LAPSE RATES.
THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND MARINE FLOW ARE ALSO LIKELY TO KEEP
HIGH TEMPS COOLER THAN NORMAL /MAINLY MID 70S/ DURING THE DAY THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT

RATHER UNIQUE AND STABLE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN
LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND. 20/00Z GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...THEN MORE DIFFERENCES APPEAR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A CONSENSUS BLEND TO SMOOTH OVER
THE MORE MINOR DIFFERENCES.

HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY DRY ACROSS MOST
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY NIGHT IF SOME MOVING PARTS COME TOGETHER. MOISTURE IS THE
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR...WITH INSTABILITY A CLOSE SECOND ONCE THE SUN
SETS.

THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY DROPPING SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
RETURNING US TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW. A LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO MAY
EVENTUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC...SWINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SOMETIME TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...THIS FRONT MAY INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

VFR. SEA-BREEZES CONTINUE...BECOMING LIGHT/VRB OVERNIGHT BEFORE
PREVAILING E/SE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW-END VFR CIGS
SLOWLY BUILDING E ALONG WITH -RA CHANCES TOWARDS IJD-ORH-AFN. WILL
ALSO NEED TO WATCH SE MA FOR POTENTIAL +RA AND MVFR-IFR IMPACTS
BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE
CLOSER TO FRIDAY MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. E/SE FLOW PREVAILS. EXPECT
CONDITIONS NO LOWER THAN LOW-END VFR CIGS. -RA CHANCES MINIMAL.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. -RA CHANCES BEGIN TOWARDS
THURSDAY MORNING ALONG WITH LOW-END VFR CIGS. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
THOUGH LOW-CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY
MVFR/IFR FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER CONTINUES. WINDS REMAIN MAINLY E
TO SE WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 15 KT POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
OUTER EDGE OF THE S AND SE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES. SEAS
MAY INCREASE ON THE OUTER WATERS THIS WEEKEND AS AN OCEAN STORM
PASSES WELL EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS. WNA WAVE
GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE TOO HIGH BASED ON EXPECTED WINDS...LOWERED THIS
GUIDANCE BY 20 PERCENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 201359
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
959 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

MAINLY DRY WEATHER...EXCEPT MAYBE A SHOWER IN THE WEST...WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. PATTERN STARTS TO BECOME A BIT MORE UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS ALL BUT ERODED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...THE OVERNIGHT CULPRIT BEING SURFACE
MOISTURE POOLING BENEATH A DRY INVERSION IN LOCATIONS WHERE WINDS
WERE LIGHT/VARIABLE AND CONDITIONS WERE CLEAR TO ALLOW FOR GOOD
NOCTURNAL RADIATING.

AS FOR TODAY...A DRY AND QUIET FORECAST. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
PREVAILING WITH THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION.
THE COMBINATION OF NEIGHBORING CLOSED LOWS OVER NE NORTH AMERICA
AND A STALLED E-W FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC RESULTS IN
CONTINUED STRENGTH AND INFLUENCE OF THE LABRADOR HIGH. AIR NEEDS
TO SINK SOMEWHERE BETWEEN AREAS OF CONVERGENCE.

AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES E LATE IN THE DAY...HEIGHTS WILL
LOWER INTO THE CT-VALLEY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE H5 TROUGH AXIS
AND VORTICITY. THOUGH ASCENT IS LACKING AS BETTER DYNAMICS ALONG
WITH THE SURFACE WARM-FRONT RESIDE W. PERHAPS SOME INCREASING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND WEAK SW-ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE COULD YIELD A
SPRINKLE INTO W NEW ENGLAND...THOUGH THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR PER
THE 12Z CHATHAM SOUNDING /PWAT OF 0.64 INCHES FOR MID-AUGUST!?/
AND INFLUENCE OF THE LABRADOR HIGH AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE WILL
MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR ANY MOISTURE TO PROCEED E OF THE CT-RIVER
VALLEY LET ALONE REACH THE GROUND.

A WARMER AIRMASS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SW COMBINED
WITH A MIXING BOUNDARY LAYER UP TO H85 /+12-14C/ SHOULD ALLOW
HIGHS OF AROUND THE LOW-80S /SEASONABLE/. COOLER ALONG THE
SHORELINES WITH ANTICIPATED SEA-BREEZES EXPECTED AROUND LATE-
MORNING. EXPECT SOME GUSTY E-WINDS BEHIND THE SEA-BREEZE AROUND
10 MPH. A FEW SITES INTO THE MID-80S WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS OUT OF PA/NY MAY CURTAIL SOME OF THE
DAYTIME HEATING...BUT THERE IS EVIDENCE OF ITS EROSION E...SO WILL
PREVAIL WITH PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR AREAS MAINLY AROUND AND
W OF THE WORCESTER HILLS. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS TO THE E WITH
ONSHORE SEA-BREEZE AND ADVECTION OF A MARINE STABLE LAYER...ALSO
THE GREATER DEEP-LAYER INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR /AGAIN...SEE THE 12Z
CHATHAM SOUNDING/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...

THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND GRADUALLY OPENING UPPER LVL
CUTOFF...COMBINED WITH GRADUAL MOISTURE LOADING OF THE COLUMN IS
LIKELY TO LEAD TO MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION THAN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION A SHOWER IS ABLE TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE W...BUT BOTH JET AND VORTICITY RELATED DYNAMICS ARE QUITE
WEAK AND OVERALL COLUMN MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW UNTIL THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST EXCEPT THE EXTREME WRN FRINGES OF THE BOX CWA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...GIVEN THE INCREASED MOISTURE /CLOUD
COVER/ AND WARMER EVENING TEMPERATURES EXPECT THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS IN SPITE OF THE NEAR CALM FLOW
ONCE AGAIN. MORE WIDESPREAD MID 50S WITH EVEN SOME NORMAL HEAT
ISLANDS HOLDING IN THE LOW-MID 60S ARE EXPECTED.

THURSDAY...

INVERTED RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE...AND MAINLY E-SE FLOW EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION. THE MARINE INFLUENCE IS LIKELY TO STAVE OFF
APPROACHING WARM FRONT AS IT/S ATTENDANT UPPER LVL CUTOFF
DIMINISHES TO AN OPEN WAVE WITH CUTOFF HIGH PRES TO THE N. UPPER
LVL AND LOW LVL JETS ARE WEAK AND WITH OVERALL VORTICITY
DECREASING...THEREFORE DYNAMIC FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK EVEN AS
OVERALL COLUMN MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY /PWATS APPROACH
1.75 INCHES/. ALSO...WITH MARINE FLOW AND WARM FRONT TRAPPED TO
THE W...IT/S UNLIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE MUCH DESTABILIZATION
THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN ALL OF THIS...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERY
ACTIVITY REMAINS FAIRLY LOW. WILL FOCUS ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS W OF
THE CT VALLEY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE WORCESTER HILLS.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIVE TO THE SW OF THE REGION WHERE
INSTABILITY AXIS RESIDES. HAVE KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST
WITH THIS UPDATE DUE TO THE MARINE FLOW AND MODEST LAPSE RATES.
THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND MARINE FLOW ARE ALSO LIKELY TO KEEP
HIGH TEMPS COOLER THAN NORMAL /MAINLY MID 70S/ DURING THE DAY THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT

RATHER UNIQUE AND STABLE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN
LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND. 20/00Z GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...THEN MORE DIFFERENCES APPEAR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A CONSENSUS BLEND TO SMOOTH OVER
THE MORE MINOR DIFFERENCES.

HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY DRY ACROSS MOST
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY NIGHT IF SOME MOVING PARTS COME TOGETHER. MOISTURE IS THE
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR...WITH INSTABILITY A CLOSE SECOND ONCE THE SUN
SETS.

THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY DROPPING SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
RETURNING US TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW. A LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO MAY
EVENTUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC...SWINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SOMETIME TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...THIS FRONT MAY INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE SOME SPOTTY
GROUND FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS BOTH THIS MORNING AND AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY MAINLY W OF AN IJD-ORH-AFN
LINE DURING THE DAY ON THU.

FLOW SHIFTS FROM THE SW TO THE E THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...ASSISTED
BY SEA BREEZES. LIGHT AND VRB FLOW RETURNS AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH E
FLOW AGAIN ON THU.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY
MVFR/IFR FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER CONTINUES. WINDS REMAIN MAINLY E
TO SE WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 15 KT POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
OUTER EDGE OF THE S AND SE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES. SEAS
MAY INCREASE ON THE OUTER WATERS THIS WEEKEND AS AN OCEAN STORM
PASSES WELL EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS. WNA WAVE
GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE TOO HIGH BASED ON EXPECTED WINDS...LOWERED THIS
GUIDANCE BY 20 PERCENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 201359
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
959 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

MAINLY DRY WEATHER...EXCEPT MAYBE A SHOWER IN THE WEST...WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. PATTERN STARTS TO BECOME A BIT MORE UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS ALL BUT ERODED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...THE OVERNIGHT CULPRIT BEING SURFACE
MOISTURE POOLING BENEATH A DRY INVERSION IN LOCATIONS WHERE WINDS
WERE LIGHT/VARIABLE AND CONDITIONS WERE CLEAR TO ALLOW FOR GOOD
NOCTURNAL RADIATING.

AS FOR TODAY...A DRY AND QUIET FORECAST. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
PREVAILING WITH THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION.
THE COMBINATION OF NEIGHBORING CLOSED LOWS OVER NE NORTH AMERICA
AND A STALLED E-W FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC RESULTS IN
CONTINUED STRENGTH AND INFLUENCE OF THE LABRADOR HIGH. AIR NEEDS
TO SINK SOMEWHERE BETWEEN AREAS OF CONVERGENCE.

AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES E LATE IN THE DAY...HEIGHTS WILL
LOWER INTO THE CT-VALLEY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE H5 TROUGH AXIS
AND VORTICITY. THOUGH ASCENT IS LACKING AS BETTER DYNAMICS ALONG
WITH THE SURFACE WARM-FRONT RESIDE W. PERHAPS SOME INCREASING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND WEAK SW-ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE COULD YIELD A
SPRINKLE INTO W NEW ENGLAND...THOUGH THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR PER
THE 12Z CHATHAM SOUNDING /PWAT OF 0.64 INCHES FOR MID-AUGUST!?/
AND INFLUENCE OF THE LABRADOR HIGH AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE WILL
MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR ANY MOISTURE TO PROCEED E OF THE CT-RIVER
VALLEY LET ALONE REACH THE GROUND.

A WARMER AIRMASS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SW COMBINED
WITH A MIXING BOUNDARY LAYER UP TO H85 /+12-14C/ SHOULD ALLOW
HIGHS OF AROUND THE LOW-80S /SEASONABLE/. COOLER ALONG THE
SHORELINES WITH ANTICIPATED SEA-BREEZES EXPECTED AROUND LATE-
MORNING. EXPECT SOME GUSTY E-WINDS BEHIND THE SEA-BREEZE AROUND
10 MPH. A FEW SITES INTO THE MID-80S WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS OUT OF PA/NY MAY CURTAIL SOME OF THE
DAYTIME HEATING...BUT THERE IS EVIDENCE OF ITS EROSION E...SO WILL
PREVAIL WITH PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR AREAS MAINLY AROUND AND
W OF THE WORCESTER HILLS. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS TO THE E WITH
ONSHORE SEA-BREEZE AND ADVECTION OF A MARINE STABLE LAYER...ALSO
THE GREATER DEEP-LAYER INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR /AGAIN...SEE THE 12Z
CHATHAM SOUNDING/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...

THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND GRADUALLY OPENING UPPER LVL
CUTOFF...COMBINED WITH GRADUAL MOISTURE LOADING OF THE COLUMN IS
LIKELY TO LEAD TO MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION THAN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION A SHOWER IS ABLE TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE W...BUT BOTH JET AND VORTICITY RELATED DYNAMICS ARE QUITE
WEAK AND OVERALL COLUMN MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW UNTIL THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST EXCEPT THE EXTREME WRN FRINGES OF THE BOX CWA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...GIVEN THE INCREASED MOISTURE /CLOUD
COVER/ AND WARMER EVENING TEMPERATURES EXPECT THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS IN SPITE OF THE NEAR CALM FLOW
ONCE AGAIN. MORE WIDESPREAD MID 50S WITH EVEN SOME NORMAL HEAT
ISLANDS HOLDING IN THE LOW-MID 60S ARE EXPECTED.

THURSDAY...

INVERTED RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE...AND MAINLY E-SE FLOW EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION. THE MARINE INFLUENCE IS LIKELY TO STAVE OFF
APPROACHING WARM FRONT AS IT/S ATTENDANT UPPER LVL CUTOFF
DIMINISHES TO AN OPEN WAVE WITH CUTOFF HIGH PRES TO THE N. UPPER
LVL AND LOW LVL JETS ARE WEAK AND WITH OVERALL VORTICITY
DECREASING...THEREFORE DYNAMIC FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK EVEN AS
OVERALL COLUMN MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY /PWATS APPROACH
1.75 INCHES/. ALSO...WITH MARINE FLOW AND WARM FRONT TRAPPED TO
THE W...IT/S UNLIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE MUCH DESTABILIZATION
THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN ALL OF THIS...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERY
ACTIVITY REMAINS FAIRLY LOW. WILL FOCUS ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS W OF
THE CT VALLEY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE WORCESTER HILLS.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIVE TO THE SW OF THE REGION WHERE
INSTABILITY AXIS RESIDES. HAVE KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST
WITH THIS UPDATE DUE TO THE MARINE FLOW AND MODEST LAPSE RATES.
THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND MARINE FLOW ARE ALSO LIKELY TO KEEP
HIGH TEMPS COOLER THAN NORMAL /MAINLY MID 70S/ DURING THE DAY THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT

RATHER UNIQUE AND STABLE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN
LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND. 20/00Z GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...THEN MORE DIFFERENCES APPEAR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A CONSENSUS BLEND TO SMOOTH OVER
THE MORE MINOR DIFFERENCES.

HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY DRY ACROSS MOST
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY NIGHT IF SOME MOVING PARTS COME TOGETHER. MOISTURE IS THE
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR...WITH INSTABILITY A CLOSE SECOND ONCE THE SUN
SETS.

THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY DROPPING SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
RETURNING US TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW. A LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO MAY
EVENTUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC...SWINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SOMETIME TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...THIS FRONT MAY INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE SOME SPOTTY
GROUND FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS BOTH THIS MORNING AND AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY MAINLY W OF AN IJD-ORH-AFN
LINE DURING THE DAY ON THU.

FLOW SHIFTS FROM THE SW TO THE E THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...ASSISTED
BY SEA BREEZES. LIGHT AND VRB FLOW RETURNS AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH E
FLOW AGAIN ON THU.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY
MVFR/IFR FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER CONTINUES. WINDS REMAIN MAINLY E
TO SE WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 15 KT POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
OUTER EDGE OF THE S AND SE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES. SEAS
MAY INCREASE ON THE OUTER WATERS THIS WEEKEND AS AN OCEAN STORM
PASSES WELL EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS. WNA WAVE
GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE TOO HIGH BASED ON EXPECTED WINDS...LOWERED THIS
GUIDANCE BY 20 PERCENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 201359
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
959 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

MAINLY DRY WEATHER...EXCEPT MAYBE A SHOWER IN THE WEST...WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. PATTERN STARTS TO BECOME A BIT MORE UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS ALL BUT ERODED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...THE OVERNIGHT CULPRIT BEING SURFACE
MOISTURE POOLING BENEATH A DRY INVERSION IN LOCATIONS WHERE WINDS
WERE LIGHT/VARIABLE AND CONDITIONS WERE CLEAR TO ALLOW FOR GOOD
NOCTURNAL RADIATING.

AS FOR TODAY...A DRY AND QUIET FORECAST. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
PREVAILING WITH THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION.
THE COMBINATION OF NEIGHBORING CLOSED LOWS OVER NE NORTH AMERICA
AND A STALLED E-W FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC RESULTS IN
CONTINUED STRENGTH AND INFLUENCE OF THE LABRADOR HIGH. AIR NEEDS
TO SINK SOMEWHERE BETWEEN AREAS OF CONVERGENCE.

AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES E LATE IN THE DAY...HEIGHTS WILL
LOWER INTO THE CT-VALLEY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE H5 TROUGH AXIS
AND VORTICITY. THOUGH ASCENT IS LACKING AS BETTER DYNAMICS ALONG
WITH THE SURFACE WARM-FRONT RESIDE W. PERHAPS SOME INCREASING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND WEAK SW-ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE COULD YIELD A
SPRINKLE INTO W NEW ENGLAND...THOUGH THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR PER
THE 12Z CHATHAM SOUNDING /PWAT OF 0.64 INCHES FOR MID-AUGUST!?/
AND INFLUENCE OF THE LABRADOR HIGH AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE WILL
MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR ANY MOISTURE TO PROCEED E OF THE CT-RIVER
VALLEY LET ALONE REACH THE GROUND.

A WARMER AIRMASS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SW COMBINED
WITH A MIXING BOUNDARY LAYER UP TO H85 /+12-14C/ SHOULD ALLOW
HIGHS OF AROUND THE LOW-80S /SEASONABLE/. COOLER ALONG THE
SHORELINES WITH ANTICIPATED SEA-BREEZES EXPECTED AROUND LATE-
MORNING. EXPECT SOME GUSTY E-WINDS BEHIND THE SEA-BREEZE AROUND
10 MPH. A FEW SITES INTO THE MID-80S WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS OUT OF PA/NY MAY CURTAIL SOME OF THE
DAYTIME HEATING...BUT THERE IS EVIDENCE OF ITS EROSION E...SO WILL
PREVAIL WITH PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR AREAS MAINLY AROUND AND
W OF THE WORCESTER HILLS. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS TO THE E WITH
ONSHORE SEA-BREEZE AND ADVECTION OF A MARINE STABLE LAYER...ALSO
THE GREATER DEEP-LAYER INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR /AGAIN...SEE THE 12Z
CHATHAM SOUNDING/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...

THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND GRADUALLY OPENING UPPER LVL
CUTOFF...COMBINED WITH GRADUAL MOISTURE LOADING OF THE COLUMN IS
LIKELY TO LEAD TO MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION THAN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION A SHOWER IS ABLE TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE W...BUT BOTH JET AND VORTICITY RELATED DYNAMICS ARE QUITE
WEAK AND OVERALL COLUMN MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW UNTIL THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST EXCEPT THE EXTREME WRN FRINGES OF THE BOX CWA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...GIVEN THE INCREASED MOISTURE /CLOUD
COVER/ AND WARMER EVENING TEMPERATURES EXPECT THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS IN SPITE OF THE NEAR CALM FLOW
ONCE AGAIN. MORE WIDESPREAD MID 50S WITH EVEN SOME NORMAL HEAT
ISLANDS HOLDING IN THE LOW-MID 60S ARE EXPECTED.

THURSDAY...

INVERTED RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE...AND MAINLY E-SE FLOW EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION. THE MARINE INFLUENCE IS LIKELY TO STAVE OFF
APPROACHING WARM FRONT AS IT/S ATTENDANT UPPER LVL CUTOFF
DIMINISHES TO AN OPEN WAVE WITH CUTOFF HIGH PRES TO THE N. UPPER
LVL AND LOW LVL JETS ARE WEAK AND WITH OVERALL VORTICITY
DECREASING...THEREFORE DYNAMIC FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK EVEN AS
OVERALL COLUMN MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY /PWATS APPROACH
1.75 INCHES/. ALSO...WITH MARINE FLOW AND WARM FRONT TRAPPED TO
THE W...IT/S UNLIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE MUCH DESTABILIZATION
THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN ALL OF THIS...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERY
ACTIVITY REMAINS FAIRLY LOW. WILL FOCUS ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS W OF
THE CT VALLEY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE WORCESTER HILLS.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIVE TO THE SW OF THE REGION WHERE
INSTABILITY AXIS RESIDES. HAVE KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST
WITH THIS UPDATE DUE TO THE MARINE FLOW AND MODEST LAPSE RATES.
THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND MARINE FLOW ARE ALSO LIKELY TO KEEP
HIGH TEMPS COOLER THAN NORMAL /MAINLY MID 70S/ DURING THE DAY THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT

RATHER UNIQUE AND STABLE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN
LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND. 20/00Z GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...THEN MORE DIFFERENCES APPEAR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A CONSENSUS BLEND TO SMOOTH OVER
THE MORE MINOR DIFFERENCES.

HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY DRY ACROSS MOST
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY NIGHT IF SOME MOVING PARTS COME TOGETHER. MOISTURE IS THE
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR...WITH INSTABILITY A CLOSE SECOND ONCE THE SUN
SETS.

THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY DROPPING SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
RETURNING US TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW. A LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO MAY
EVENTUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC...SWINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SOMETIME TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...THIS FRONT MAY INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE SOME SPOTTY
GROUND FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS BOTH THIS MORNING AND AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY MAINLY W OF AN IJD-ORH-AFN
LINE DURING THE DAY ON THU.

FLOW SHIFTS FROM THE SW TO THE E THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...ASSISTED
BY SEA BREEZES. LIGHT AND VRB FLOW RETURNS AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH E
FLOW AGAIN ON THU.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY
MVFR/IFR FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER CONTINUES. WINDS REMAIN MAINLY E
TO SE WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 15 KT POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
OUTER EDGE OF THE S AND SE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES. SEAS
MAY INCREASE ON THE OUTER WATERS THIS WEEKEND AS AN OCEAN STORM
PASSES WELL EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS. WNA WAVE
GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE TOO HIGH BASED ON EXPECTED WINDS...LOWERED THIS
GUIDANCE BY 20 PERCENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 201359
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
959 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

MAINLY DRY WEATHER...EXCEPT MAYBE A SHOWER IN THE WEST...WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. PATTERN STARTS TO BECOME A BIT MORE UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS ALL BUT ERODED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...THE OVERNIGHT CULPRIT BEING SURFACE
MOISTURE POOLING BENEATH A DRY INVERSION IN LOCATIONS WHERE WINDS
WERE LIGHT/VARIABLE AND CONDITIONS WERE CLEAR TO ALLOW FOR GOOD
NOCTURNAL RADIATING.

AS FOR TODAY...A DRY AND QUIET FORECAST. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
PREVAILING WITH THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION.
THE COMBINATION OF NEIGHBORING CLOSED LOWS OVER NE NORTH AMERICA
AND A STALLED E-W FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC RESULTS IN
CONTINUED STRENGTH AND INFLUENCE OF THE LABRADOR HIGH. AIR NEEDS
TO SINK SOMEWHERE BETWEEN AREAS OF CONVERGENCE.

AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES E LATE IN THE DAY...HEIGHTS WILL
LOWER INTO THE CT-VALLEY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE H5 TROUGH AXIS
AND VORTICITY. THOUGH ASCENT IS LACKING AS BETTER DYNAMICS ALONG
WITH THE SURFACE WARM-FRONT RESIDE W. PERHAPS SOME INCREASING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND WEAK SW-ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE COULD YIELD A
SPRINKLE INTO W NEW ENGLAND...THOUGH THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR PER
THE 12Z CHATHAM SOUNDING /PWAT OF 0.64 INCHES FOR MID-AUGUST!?/
AND INFLUENCE OF THE LABRADOR HIGH AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE WILL
MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR ANY MOISTURE TO PROCEED E OF THE CT-RIVER
VALLEY LET ALONE REACH THE GROUND.

A WARMER AIRMASS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SW COMBINED
WITH A MIXING BOUNDARY LAYER UP TO H85 /+12-14C/ SHOULD ALLOW
HIGHS OF AROUND THE LOW-80S /SEASONABLE/. COOLER ALONG THE
SHORELINES WITH ANTICIPATED SEA-BREEZES EXPECTED AROUND LATE-
MORNING. EXPECT SOME GUSTY E-WINDS BEHIND THE SEA-BREEZE AROUND
10 MPH. A FEW SITES INTO THE MID-80S WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS OUT OF PA/NY MAY CURTAIL SOME OF THE
DAYTIME HEATING...BUT THERE IS EVIDENCE OF ITS EROSION E...SO WILL
PREVAIL WITH PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR AREAS MAINLY AROUND AND
W OF THE WORCESTER HILLS. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS TO THE E WITH
ONSHORE SEA-BREEZE AND ADVECTION OF A MARINE STABLE LAYER...ALSO
THE GREATER DEEP-LAYER INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR /AGAIN...SEE THE 12Z
CHATHAM SOUNDING/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

TONIGHT...

THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND GRADUALLY OPENING UPPER LVL
CUTOFF...COMBINED WITH GRADUAL MOISTURE LOADING OF THE COLUMN IS
LIKELY TO LEAD TO MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION THAN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION A SHOWER IS ABLE TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE W...BUT BOTH JET AND VORTICITY RELATED DYNAMICS ARE QUITE
WEAK AND OVERALL COLUMN MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW UNTIL THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST EXCEPT THE EXTREME WRN FRINGES OF THE BOX CWA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...GIVEN THE INCREASED MOISTURE /CLOUD
COVER/ AND WARMER EVENING TEMPERATURES EXPECT THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS IN SPITE OF THE NEAR CALM FLOW
ONCE AGAIN. MORE WIDESPREAD MID 50S WITH EVEN SOME NORMAL HEAT
ISLANDS HOLDING IN THE LOW-MID 60S ARE EXPECTED.

THURSDAY...

INVERTED RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE...AND MAINLY E-SE FLOW EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION. THE MARINE INFLUENCE IS LIKELY TO STAVE OFF
APPROACHING WARM FRONT AS IT/S ATTENDANT UPPER LVL CUTOFF
DIMINISHES TO AN OPEN WAVE WITH CUTOFF HIGH PRES TO THE N. UPPER
LVL AND LOW LVL JETS ARE WEAK AND WITH OVERALL VORTICITY
DECREASING...THEREFORE DYNAMIC FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK EVEN AS
OVERALL COLUMN MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY /PWATS APPROACH
1.75 INCHES/. ALSO...WITH MARINE FLOW AND WARM FRONT TRAPPED TO
THE W...IT/S UNLIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE MUCH DESTABILIZATION
THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN ALL OF THIS...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERY
ACTIVITY REMAINS FAIRLY LOW. WILL FOCUS ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS W OF
THE CT VALLEY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE WORCESTER HILLS.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIVE TO THE SW OF THE REGION WHERE
INSTABILITY AXIS RESIDES. HAVE KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST
WITH THIS UPDATE DUE TO THE MARINE FLOW AND MODEST LAPSE RATES.
THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND MARINE FLOW ARE ALSO LIKELY TO KEEP
HIGH TEMPS COOLER THAN NORMAL /MAINLY MID 70S/ DURING THE DAY THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT

RATHER UNIQUE AND STABLE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN
LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND. 20/00Z GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...THEN MORE DIFFERENCES APPEAR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A CONSENSUS BLEND TO SMOOTH OVER
THE MORE MINOR DIFFERENCES.

HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY DRY ACROSS MOST
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY NIGHT IF SOME MOVING PARTS COME TOGETHER. MOISTURE IS THE
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR...WITH INSTABILITY A CLOSE SECOND ONCE THE SUN
SETS.

THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY DROPPING SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
RETURNING US TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW. A LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO MAY
EVENTUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC...SWINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SOMETIME TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...THIS FRONT MAY INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE SOME SPOTTY
GROUND FOG AT TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS BOTH THIS MORNING AND AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY MAINLY W OF AN IJD-ORH-AFN
LINE DURING THE DAY ON THU.

FLOW SHIFTS FROM THE SW TO THE E THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...ASSISTED
BY SEA BREEZES. LIGHT AND VRB FLOW RETURNS AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH E
FLOW AGAIN ON THU.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY
MVFR/IFR FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER CONTINUES. WINDS REMAIN MAINLY E
TO SE WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 15 KT POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
OUTER EDGE OF THE S AND SE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES. SEAS
MAY INCREASE ON THE OUTER WATERS THIS WEEKEND AS AN OCEAN STORM
PASSES WELL EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS. WNA WAVE
GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE TOO HIGH BASED ON EXPECTED WINDS...LOWERED THIS
GUIDANCE BY 20 PERCENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 201126
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
726 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER...EXCEPT MAYBE A SHOWER IN THE WEST...WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. PATTERN STARTS TO BECOME A BIT MORE UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
725 AM UPDATE...

PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
SOUTHEAST MA AND RI STILL EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AROUND 8 AM. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. VERY WEAK WINDS THIS MORNING
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY QUICKER ONSET OF SEA BREEZES THAN
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED TO BRING NEAR-TERM
CONDITIONS BACK INTO LINE WITH OBSERVED TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SOME LEFTOVER BKN-OVC CI CONTINUES TO MOVE E OF THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT NOT BEFORE SLOWING THE OVERNIGHT RADIATIONAL
COOLING PROCESS. THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH A FEW MORE HOURS OF
POTENTIAL COOLING REMAIN...MINS ARE LIKELY TO BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ACROSS THE BOARD THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. SO A COOL...BUT NOT
QUITE AS COOL START THIS MORNING AS TUE MORNING.

OTHERWISE TODAY...A TALE OF 3 LOW PRES CENTERS...TWO ALOFT AND ONE
WELL TO THE SE OF SRN NEW ENGLAND. IN BETWEEN INVERTED RIDGE OF
HIGH PRES IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN PLACE...ASSISTED BY SUBSIDENCE
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. ALTHOUGH A WARM FRONT /ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WRN UPPER LVL CUTOFF SLIDING E/ WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE W IT
IS UNLIKELY TO HAVE MUCH OF AN EFFECT ON SRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS
THANKS TO THE SUBSIDENCE AND AN ALREADY DRY COLUMN ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...DUE NOTE SOME MOISTURE LOADING OF THE COLUMN
FROM THE TOP-DOWN SO WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SLOWLY BUILDING CLOUD
COVER ESPECIALLY FROM THE WORCESTER HILLS-W.

TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO BE BIT WARMER TODAY AS WELL THANKS TO A
SLIGHTLY WARMER START AND H85 TEMPS APPROACHING +14C.
THEREFORE...EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD LOW-MID 80S THAN YESTERDAY FOR
HIGHS. NEAR SHORE...SEA BREEZES LIKELY HOLD TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...
THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND GRADUALLY OPENING UPPER LVL
CUTOFF...COMBINED WITH GRADUAL MOISTURE LOADING OF THE COLUMN IS
LIKELY TO LEAD TO MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION THAN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION A SHOWER IS ABLE TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE W...BUT BOTH JET AND VORTICITY RELATED DYNAMICS ARE QUITE
WEAK AND OVERALL COLUMN MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW UNTIL THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST EXCEPT THE EXTREME WRN FRINGES OF THE BOX CWA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...GIVEN THE INCREASED MOISTURE /CLOUD
COVER/ AND WARMER EVENING TEMPERATURES EXPECT THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS IN SPITE OF THE NEAR CALM FLOW
ONCE AGAIN. MORE WIDESPREAD MID 50S WITH EVEN SOME NORMAL HEAT
ISLANDS HOLDING IN THE LOW-MID 60S ARE EXPECTED.

THU...
INVERTED RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE...AND MAINLY E-SE FLOW EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION. THE MARINE INFLUENCE IS LIKELY TO STAVE OFF
APPROACHING WARM FRONT AS IT/S ATTENDANT UPPER LVL CUTOFF
DIMINISHES TO AN OPEN WAVE WITH CUTOFF HIGH PRES TO THE N. UPPER
LVL AND LOW LVL JETS ARE WEAK AND WITH OVERALL VORTICITY
DECREASING...THEREFORE DYNAMIC FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK EVEN AS
OVERALL COLUMN MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY /PWATS APPROACH
1.75 INCHES/. ALSO...WITH MARINE FLOW AND WARM FRONT TRAPPED TO
THE W...IT/S UNLIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE MUCH DESTABILIZATION
THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN ALL OF THIS...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERY
ACTIVITY REMAINS FAIRLY LOW. WILL FOCUS ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS W OF
THE CT VALLEY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE WORCESTER HILLS.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIVE TO THE SW OF THE REGION WHERE
INSTABILITY AXIS RESIDES. HAVE KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST
WITH THIS UPDATE DUE TO THE MARINE FLOW AND MODEST LAPSE RATES.
THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND MARINE FLOW ARE ALSO LIKELY TO KEEP
HIGH TEMPS COOLER THAN NORMAL /MAINLY MID 70S/ DURING THE DAY THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT

RATHER UNIQUE AND STABLE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN
LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND. 20/00Z GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...THEN MORE DIFFERENCES APPEAR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A CONSENSUS BLEND TO SMOOTH OVER
THE MORE MINOR DIFFERENCES.

HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY DRY ACROSS MOST
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY NIGHT IF SOME MOVING PARTS COME TOGETHER. MOISTURE IS THE
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR...WITH INSTABILITY A CLOSE SECOND ONCE THE SUN
SETS.

THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY DROPPING SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
RETURNING US TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW. A LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO MAY
EVENTUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC...SWINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SOMETIME TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...THIS FRONT MAY INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THU. ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE SOME SPOTTY GROUND FOG
AT TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS BOTH THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY MAINLY W OF AN IJD-ORH-AFN LINE
DURING THE DAY ON THU.

FLOW SHIFTS FROM THE SW TO THE E THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...ASSISTED
BY SEA BREEZES. LIGHT AND VRB FLOW RETURNS AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH E
FLOW AGAIN ON THU.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY
MVFR/IFR FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER CONTINUES. WINDS REMAIN MAINLY E
TO SE WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 15 KT POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
OUTER EDGE OF THE S AND SE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES. SEAS
MAY INCREASE ON THE OUTER WATERS THIS WEEKEND AS AN OCEAN STORM
PASSES WELL EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS. WNA WAVE
GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE TOO HIGH BASED ON EXPECTED WINDS...LOWERED THIS
GUIDANCE BY 20 PERCENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 201126
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
726 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER...EXCEPT MAYBE A SHOWER IN THE WEST...WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. PATTERN STARTS TO BECOME A BIT MORE UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
725 AM UPDATE...

PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
SOUTHEAST MA AND RI STILL EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AROUND 8 AM. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. VERY WEAK WINDS THIS MORNING
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY QUICKER ONSET OF SEA BREEZES THAN
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED TO BRING NEAR-TERM
CONDITIONS BACK INTO LINE WITH OBSERVED TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SOME LEFTOVER BKN-OVC CI CONTINUES TO MOVE E OF THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT NOT BEFORE SLOWING THE OVERNIGHT RADIATIONAL
COOLING PROCESS. THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH A FEW MORE HOURS OF
POTENTIAL COOLING REMAIN...MINS ARE LIKELY TO BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ACROSS THE BOARD THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. SO A COOL...BUT NOT
QUITE AS COOL START THIS MORNING AS TUE MORNING.

OTHERWISE TODAY...A TALE OF 3 LOW PRES CENTERS...TWO ALOFT AND ONE
WELL TO THE SE OF SRN NEW ENGLAND. IN BETWEEN INVERTED RIDGE OF
HIGH PRES IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN PLACE...ASSISTED BY SUBSIDENCE
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. ALTHOUGH A WARM FRONT /ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WRN UPPER LVL CUTOFF SLIDING E/ WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE W IT
IS UNLIKELY TO HAVE MUCH OF AN EFFECT ON SRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS
THANKS TO THE SUBSIDENCE AND AN ALREADY DRY COLUMN ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...DUE NOTE SOME MOISTURE LOADING OF THE COLUMN
FROM THE TOP-DOWN SO WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SLOWLY BUILDING CLOUD
COVER ESPECIALLY FROM THE WORCESTER HILLS-W.

TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO BE BIT WARMER TODAY AS WELL THANKS TO A
SLIGHTLY WARMER START AND H85 TEMPS APPROACHING +14C.
THEREFORE...EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD LOW-MID 80S THAN YESTERDAY FOR
HIGHS. NEAR SHORE...SEA BREEZES LIKELY HOLD TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...
THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND GRADUALLY OPENING UPPER LVL
CUTOFF...COMBINED WITH GRADUAL MOISTURE LOADING OF THE COLUMN IS
LIKELY TO LEAD TO MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION THAN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION A SHOWER IS ABLE TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE W...BUT BOTH JET AND VORTICITY RELATED DYNAMICS ARE QUITE
WEAK AND OVERALL COLUMN MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW UNTIL THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST EXCEPT THE EXTREME WRN FRINGES OF THE BOX CWA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...GIVEN THE INCREASED MOISTURE /CLOUD
COVER/ AND WARMER EVENING TEMPERATURES EXPECT THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS IN SPITE OF THE NEAR CALM FLOW
ONCE AGAIN. MORE WIDESPREAD MID 50S WITH EVEN SOME NORMAL HEAT
ISLANDS HOLDING IN THE LOW-MID 60S ARE EXPECTED.

THU...
INVERTED RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE...AND MAINLY E-SE FLOW EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION. THE MARINE INFLUENCE IS LIKELY TO STAVE OFF
APPROACHING WARM FRONT AS IT/S ATTENDANT UPPER LVL CUTOFF
DIMINISHES TO AN OPEN WAVE WITH CUTOFF HIGH PRES TO THE N. UPPER
LVL AND LOW LVL JETS ARE WEAK AND WITH OVERALL VORTICITY
DECREASING...THEREFORE DYNAMIC FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK EVEN AS
OVERALL COLUMN MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY /PWATS APPROACH
1.75 INCHES/. ALSO...WITH MARINE FLOW AND WARM FRONT TRAPPED TO
THE W...IT/S UNLIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE MUCH DESTABILIZATION
THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN ALL OF THIS...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERY
ACTIVITY REMAINS FAIRLY LOW. WILL FOCUS ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS W OF
THE CT VALLEY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE WORCESTER HILLS.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIVE TO THE SW OF THE REGION WHERE
INSTABILITY AXIS RESIDES. HAVE KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST
WITH THIS UPDATE DUE TO THE MARINE FLOW AND MODEST LAPSE RATES.
THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND MARINE FLOW ARE ALSO LIKELY TO KEEP
HIGH TEMPS COOLER THAN NORMAL /MAINLY MID 70S/ DURING THE DAY THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT

RATHER UNIQUE AND STABLE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN
LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND. 20/00Z GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...THEN MORE DIFFERENCES APPEAR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A CONSENSUS BLEND TO SMOOTH OVER
THE MORE MINOR DIFFERENCES.

HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY DRY ACROSS MOST
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY NIGHT IF SOME MOVING PARTS COME TOGETHER. MOISTURE IS THE
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR...WITH INSTABILITY A CLOSE SECOND ONCE THE SUN
SETS.

THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY DROPPING SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
RETURNING US TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW. A LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO MAY
EVENTUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC...SWINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SOMETIME TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...THIS FRONT MAY INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THU. ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE SOME SPOTTY GROUND FOG
AT TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS BOTH THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY MAINLY W OF AN IJD-ORH-AFN LINE
DURING THE DAY ON THU.

FLOW SHIFTS FROM THE SW TO THE E THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...ASSISTED
BY SEA BREEZES. LIGHT AND VRB FLOW RETURNS AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH E
FLOW AGAIN ON THU.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY
MVFR/IFR FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER CONTINUES. WINDS REMAIN MAINLY E
TO SE WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 15 KT POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
OUTER EDGE OF THE S AND SE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES. SEAS
MAY INCREASE ON THE OUTER WATERS THIS WEEKEND AS AN OCEAN STORM
PASSES WELL EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS. WNA WAVE
GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE TOO HIGH BASED ON EXPECTED WINDS...LOWERED THIS
GUIDANCE BY 20 PERCENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 200751
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
351 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER...EXCEPT MAYBE A SHOWER IN THE WEST...WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. PATTERN STARTS TO BECOME A BIT MORE UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME LEFTOVER BKN-OVC CI CONTINUES TO MOVE E OF THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT NOT BEFORE SLOWING THE OVERNIGHT RADIATIONAL
COOLING PROCESS. THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH A FEW MORE HOURS OF
POTENTIAL COOLING REMAIN...MINS ARE LIKELY TO BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ACROSS THE BOARD THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. SO A COOL...BUT NOT
QUITE AS COOL START THIS MORNING AS TUE MORNING.

OTHERWISE TODAY...A TALE OF 3 LOW PRES CENTERS...TWO ALOFT AND ONE
WELL TO THE SE OF SRN NEW ENGLAND. IN BETWEEN INVERTED RIDGE OF
HIGH PRES IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN PLACE...ASSISTED BY SUBSIDENCE
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. ALTHOUGH A WARM FRONT /ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WRN UPPER LVL CUTOFF SLIDING E/ WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE W IT
IS UNLIKELY TO HAVE MUCH OF AN EFFECT ON SRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS
THANKS TO THE SUBSIDENCE AND AN ALREADY DRY COLUMN ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...DUE NOTE SOME MOISTURE LOADING OF THE COLUMN
FROM THE TOP-DOWN SO WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SLOWLY BUILDING CLOUD
COVER ESPECIALLY FROM THE WORCESTER HILLS-W.

TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO BE BIT WARMER TODAY AS WELL THANKS TO A
SLIGHTLY WARMER START AND H85 TEMPS APPROACHING +14C.
THEREFORE...EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD LOW-MID 80S THAN YESTERDAY FOR
HIGHS. NEAR SHORE...SEA BREEZES LIKELY HOLD TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...
THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND GRADUALLY OPENING UPPER LVL
CUTOFF...COMBINED WITH GRADUAL MOISTURE LOADING OF THE COLUMN IS
LIKELY TO LEAD TO MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION THAN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION A SHOWER IS ABLE TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE W...BUT BOTH JET AND VORTICITY RELATED DYNAMICS ARE QUITE
WEAK AND OVERALL COLUMN MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW UNTIL THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST EXCEPT THE EXTREME WRN FRINGES OF THE BOX CWA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...GIVEN THE INCREASED MOISTURE /CLOUD
COVER/ AND WARMER EVENING TEMPERATURES EXPECT THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS IN SPITE OF THE NEAR CALM FLOW
ONCE AGAIN. MORE WIDESPREAD MID 50S WITH EVEN SOME NORMAL HEAT
ISLANDS HOLDING IN THE LOW-MID 60S ARE EXPECTED.

THU...
INVERTED RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE...AND MAINLY E-SE FLOW EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION. THE MARINE INFLUENCE IS LIKELY TO STAVE OFF
APPROACHING WARM FRONT AS IT/S ATTENDANT UPPER LVL CUTOFF
DIMINISHES TO AN OPEN WAVE WITH CUTOFF HIGH PRES TO THE N. UPPER
LVL AND LOW LVL JETS ARE WEAK AND WITH OVERALL VORTICITY
DECREASING...THEREFORE DYNAMIC FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK EVEN AS
OVERALL COLUMN MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY /PWATS APPROACH
1.75 INCHES/. ALSO...WITH MARINE FLOW AND WARM FRONT TRAPPED TO
THE W...IT/S UNLIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE MUCH DESTABILIZATION
THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN ALL OF THIS...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERY
ACTIVITY REMAINS FAIRLY LOW. WILL FOCUS ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS W OF
THE CT VALLEY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE WORCESTER HILLS.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIVE TO THE SW OF THE REGION WHERE
INSTABILITY AXIS RESIDES. HAVE KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST
WITH THIS UPDATE DUE TO THE MARINE FLOW AND MODEST LAPSE RATES.
THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND MARINE FLOW ARE ALSO LIKELY TO KEEP
HIGH TEMPS COOLER THAN NORMAL /MAINLY MID 70S/ DURING THE DAY THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT

RATHER UNIQUE AND STABLE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN
LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND. 20/00Z GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...THEN MORE DIFFERENCES APPEAR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A CONSENSUS BLEND TO SMOOTH OVER
THE MORE MINOR DIFFERENCES.

HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY DRY ACROSS MOST
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY NIGHT IF SOME MOVING PARTS COME TOGETHER. MOISTURE IS THE
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR...WITH INSTABILITY A CLOSE SECOND ONCE THE SUN
SETS.

THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY DROPPING SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
RETURNING US TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW. A LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO MAY
EVENTUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC...SWINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SOMETIME TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...THIS FRONT MAY INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THU. ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE SOME SPOTTY GROUND FOG
AT TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS BOTH THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY MAINLY W OF AN IJD-ORH-AFN LINE
DURING THE DAY ON THU.

FLOW SHIFTS FROM THE SW TO THE E THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...ASSISTED
BY SEA BREEZES. LIGHT AND VRB FLOW RETURNS AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH E
FLOW AGAIN ON THU.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY
MVFR/IFR FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER CONTINUES. WINDS REMAIN MAINLY E
TO SE WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 15 KT POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
OUTER EDGE OF THE S AND SE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES. SEAS
MAY INCREASE ON THE OUTER WATERS THIS WEEKEND AS AN OCEAN STORM
PASSES WELL EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS. WNA WAVE
GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE TOO HIGH BASED ON EXPECTED WINDS...LOWERED THIS
GUIDANCE BY 20 PERCENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 200751
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
351 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER...EXCEPT MAYBE A SHOWER IN THE WEST...WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. PATTERN STARTS TO BECOME A BIT MORE UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME LEFTOVER BKN-OVC CI CONTINUES TO MOVE E OF THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT NOT BEFORE SLOWING THE OVERNIGHT RADIATIONAL
COOLING PROCESS. THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH A FEW MORE HOURS OF
POTENTIAL COOLING REMAIN...MINS ARE LIKELY TO BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ACROSS THE BOARD THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. SO A COOL...BUT NOT
QUITE AS COOL START THIS MORNING AS TUE MORNING.

OTHERWISE TODAY...A TALE OF 3 LOW PRES CENTERS...TWO ALOFT AND ONE
WELL TO THE SE OF SRN NEW ENGLAND. IN BETWEEN INVERTED RIDGE OF
HIGH PRES IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN PLACE...ASSISTED BY SUBSIDENCE
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. ALTHOUGH A WARM FRONT /ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WRN UPPER LVL CUTOFF SLIDING E/ WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE W IT
IS UNLIKELY TO HAVE MUCH OF AN EFFECT ON SRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS
THANKS TO THE SUBSIDENCE AND AN ALREADY DRY COLUMN ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...DUE NOTE SOME MOISTURE LOADING OF THE COLUMN
FROM THE TOP-DOWN SO WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SLOWLY BUILDING CLOUD
COVER ESPECIALLY FROM THE WORCESTER HILLS-W.

TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO BE BIT WARMER TODAY AS WELL THANKS TO A
SLIGHTLY WARMER START AND H85 TEMPS APPROACHING +14C.
THEREFORE...EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD LOW-MID 80S THAN YESTERDAY FOR
HIGHS. NEAR SHORE...SEA BREEZES LIKELY HOLD TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...
THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND GRADUALLY OPENING UPPER LVL
CUTOFF...COMBINED WITH GRADUAL MOISTURE LOADING OF THE COLUMN IS
LIKELY TO LEAD TO MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION THAN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION A SHOWER IS ABLE TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE W...BUT BOTH JET AND VORTICITY RELATED DYNAMICS ARE QUITE
WEAK AND OVERALL COLUMN MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW UNTIL THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST EXCEPT THE EXTREME WRN FRINGES OF THE BOX CWA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...GIVEN THE INCREASED MOISTURE /CLOUD
COVER/ AND WARMER EVENING TEMPERATURES EXPECT THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS IN SPITE OF THE NEAR CALM FLOW
ONCE AGAIN. MORE WIDESPREAD MID 50S WITH EVEN SOME NORMAL HEAT
ISLANDS HOLDING IN THE LOW-MID 60S ARE EXPECTED.

THU...
INVERTED RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE...AND MAINLY E-SE FLOW EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION. THE MARINE INFLUENCE IS LIKELY TO STAVE OFF
APPROACHING WARM FRONT AS IT/S ATTENDANT UPPER LVL CUTOFF
DIMINISHES TO AN OPEN WAVE WITH CUTOFF HIGH PRES TO THE N. UPPER
LVL AND LOW LVL JETS ARE WEAK AND WITH OVERALL VORTICITY
DECREASING...THEREFORE DYNAMIC FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK EVEN AS
OVERALL COLUMN MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY /PWATS APPROACH
1.75 INCHES/. ALSO...WITH MARINE FLOW AND WARM FRONT TRAPPED TO
THE W...IT/S UNLIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE MUCH DESTABILIZATION
THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN ALL OF THIS...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERY
ACTIVITY REMAINS FAIRLY LOW. WILL FOCUS ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS W OF
THE CT VALLEY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE WORCESTER HILLS.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIVE TO THE SW OF THE REGION WHERE
INSTABILITY AXIS RESIDES. HAVE KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST
WITH THIS UPDATE DUE TO THE MARINE FLOW AND MODEST LAPSE RATES.
THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND MARINE FLOW ARE ALSO LIKELY TO KEEP
HIGH TEMPS COOLER THAN NORMAL /MAINLY MID 70S/ DURING THE DAY THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT

RATHER UNIQUE AND STABLE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN
LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND. 20/00Z GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...THEN MORE DIFFERENCES APPEAR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A CONSENSUS BLEND TO SMOOTH OVER
THE MORE MINOR DIFFERENCES.

HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY DRY ACROSS MOST
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY NIGHT IF SOME MOVING PARTS COME TOGETHER. MOISTURE IS THE
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR...WITH INSTABILITY A CLOSE SECOND ONCE THE SUN
SETS.

THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY DROPPING SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
RETURNING US TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW. A LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO MAY
EVENTUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC...SWINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SOMETIME TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...THIS FRONT MAY INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THU. ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE SOME SPOTTY GROUND FOG
AT TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS BOTH THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY MAINLY W OF AN IJD-ORH-AFN LINE
DURING THE DAY ON THU.

FLOW SHIFTS FROM THE SW TO THE E THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...ASSISTED
BY SEA BREEZES. LIGHT AND VRB FLOW RETURNS AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH E
FLOW AGAIN ON THU.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY
MVFR/IFR FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER CONTINUES. WINDS REMAIN MAINLY E
TO SE WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 15 KT POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
OUTER EDGE OF THE S AND SE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES. SEAS
MAY INCREASE ON THE OUTER WATERS THIS WEEKEND AS AN OCEAN STORM
PASSES WELL EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS. WNA WAVE
GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE TOO HIGH BASED ON EXPECTED WINDS...LOWERED THIS
GUIDANCE BY 20 PERCENT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY



000
FXUS61 KBOX 200541
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
141 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PATTERN STARTS TO BECOME A BIT MORE
UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
130 AM UPDATE...
AS MENTIONED BEFORE...THE UPPER LVL CI HAS BECOME MAINLY BKN
ACROSS THE REGION AND HAS SLOWED RADIATIONAL COOLING PROCESSES
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...NOTE THAT CLEARING IS BEGINNING TO
FILTER IN FROM THE W WITH DWPTS DROPPING INTO THE 40S.
THEREFORE...STILL PLENTY OF TIME BETWEEN NOW AND SUNRISE FOR TEMPS
TO FALL OFF THE TABLE. HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS AND MINS
ACCORDINGLY WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT OF WEAK ENHANCEMENT OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AS
IT PUSHES E ACROSS THE NE-CONUS. WILL KEEP WITH A DRY FORECAST WITH
PREVAILING SUBSIDENCE ACCOMPANIED BY HIGH PRESSURE UNDER LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS.

WATCHING THE CLOUD DECK PRESENTLY OVER PA/NY. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY
ADVECT E WITH THE W/SW-FLOW REARWARD OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. HIGH
CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER AND
THICKER CLOUDS INTO W NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS CAN
RESULT IN COMPLICATIONS IN BOTH OVERNIGHT LOWS AND DENSE FOG
POTENTIAL AND COULD TOTALLY RUIN THE FORECAST.

YET ALTOGETHER...NOTING CLOUDS ALONG WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND OF ANOTHER
NIGHT OF EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING. CONSIDERING TUESDAY
MORNING LOWS...WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS SHOULD BE AROUND THE UPPER-
40S ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE AREAS WHICH RADIATE WELL. ELSEWHERE LOWS
AROUND THE MID-50S WITH URBAN CENTERS SLIGHTLY WARMER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...

THREE BLIND MICE? SURE SEEMS LIKE IT. THE NEIGHBORING OF THE GREAT
LAKES...NE-CANADA...AND NW-ATLANTIC LOWS LENDS TO A STRENGTHENING OF
THE SURFACE LABRADOR HIGH AND MID-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG WITH PERSISTING
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR. SHOULD BE A QUIET DAY WEATHER-WISE.

MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE THE CONTINUED ENCROACHMENT OF CLOUDS INTO NEW
ENGLAND...THE THICKEST OF WHICH WILL BE INTO THE CT-RIVER VALLEY.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT WILL KEEP W OF THE BERKSHIRES BASED
ON GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT OF CONTINUED ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR AS FAR W
AS THE HUDSON-RIVER VALLEY. BEST ISENTROPIC MOTIONS / LIFT PARENT
WITH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY REMAIN W ACROSS NY/PA COLLOCATED WITH THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT.

COMBINATION OF BOTH A THERMAL AND PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD RESULT IN
AN ONSHORE SEA-BREEZE FLOW BY MID-MORNING. WARMER AIRMASS FILTERING
INTO THE REGION ALOFT COUPLED WITH A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS AROUND THE
LOW-80S BENEATH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

TROUGHING PARENT TO THE GREAT LAKES LOW RENEWS LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND OUT TO SEA.
SUBSEQUENT FALLING HEIGHTS AS THE NE-CANADA LOW LIFTING NE RESULTS
IN THE GREAT LAKES CLOSED LOW AND ATTENDANT WARM-FRONT TO WOBBLE
INTO THE NE-CONUS. WILL SEE CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
ALLOWING THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THE CT-RIVER VALLEY.

EVALUATING MODEL FIELDS...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT OF SUBSIDENCE AND
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND. EVALUATING
ISENTROPIC FLOW AND FORCED ASCENT...ACTIVITY REMAINS ACROSS AND W OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. DECENT SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND ENHANCED
ASCENT COUPLED WITH A S/SW COMPONENT OF ISENTROPIC FLOW KEEPS THE
MAJORITY OF WET-WEATHER OUT OF OUR AREA. IN FACT...EVALUATING THETAE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD EXHIBITS EROSION AS IT ENCOUNTERS
MOISTURE-DEPRIVED DRIER AIR TO THE E.

ANOTHER EVENING OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW. WITH THE ENCROACHMENT OF
THE GREAT LAKES SYSTEM AS A WHOLE...HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE OF COOLEST
NIGHTTIME LOWS ACROSS E/SE NEW ENGLAND...WHEREAS THICKENING CLOUDS
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP THINGS MILD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. THE GFS
HAS COME MORE IN LINE BOTH WITH TODAYS ECMWF AS WELL AS YESTERDAYS
ECMWF RUN IN KEEPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS COMING OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WELL EAST OF OUR SHORE LINE. A PERSISTENT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY EAST...
MOVING OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES
NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER...
LESS SEASONABLE WEATHER WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL KEEP
THINGS RELATIVELY DRY. THIS HIGH WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY DROPPING SOUTH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND RETURNING US TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW. LOW
PRESSURE IN ONTARIO MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC
BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE THIS MAY INITIATE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

BEYOND THIS WEEKEND...THE FORECAST HERE WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE
EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. HOW
QUICKLY THE TROUGH PUSHES EAST VARIES GREATLY BY MODEL SO EXPECT A
GREATER THAN NORMAL POTENTIAL FOR AN EVER EVOLVING FORECAST FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THU. ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE SOME SPOTTY GROUND FOG
AT TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS BOTH THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY MAINLY W OF AN IJD-ORH-AFN LINE
DURING THE DAY ON THU.

FLOW SHIFTS FROM THE SW TO THE E THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...ASSISTED
BY SEA BREEZES. LIGHT AND VRB FLOW RETURNS AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH E
FLOW AGAIN ON THU.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY
MVFR/IFR FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER. PREVAILING E-WINDS. GUSTS OF 10-15 KTS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SE-WATERS...AND PERHAPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
NEAR-SHORE AS THE SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPS AROUND 10-11 AM WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.
SEAS MAY INCREASE ON THE OUTER WATERS THIS WEEKEND AS AN OCEAN
STORM PASSES WELL EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...DOODY/RLG
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 200541
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
141 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PATTERN STARTS TO BECOME A BIT MORE
UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
130 AM UPDATE...
AS MENTIONED BEFORE...THE UPPER LVL CI HAS BECOME MAINLY BKN
ACROSS THE REGION AND HAS SLOWED RADIATIONAL COOLING PROCESSES
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...NOTE THAT CLEARING IS BEGINNING TO
FILTER IN FROM THE W WITH DWPTS DROPPING INTO THE 40S.
THEREFORE...STILL PLENTY OF TIME BETWEEN NOW AND SUNRISE FOR TEMPS
TO FALL OFF THE TABLE. HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS AND MINS
ACCORDINGLY WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT OF WEAK ENHANCEMENT OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AS
IT PUSHES E ACROSS THE NE-CONUS. WILL KEEP WITH A DRY FORECAST WITH
PREVAILING SUBSIDENCE ACCOMPANIED BY HIGH PRESSURE UNDER LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS.

WATCHING THE CLOUD DECK PRESENTLY OVER PA/NY. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY
ADVECT E WITH THE W/SW-FLOW REARWARD OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. HIGH
CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER AND
THICKER CLOUDS INTO W NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS CAN
RESULT IN COMPLICATIONS IN BOTH OVERNIGHT LOWS AND DENSE FOG
POTENTIAL AND COULD TOTALLY RUIN THE FORECAST.

YET ALTOGETHER...NOTING CLOUDS ALONG WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND OF ANOTHER
NIGHT OF EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING. CONSIDERING TUESDAY
MORNING LOWS...WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS SHOULD BE AROUND THE UPPER-
40S ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE AREAS WHICH RADIATE WELL. ELSEWHERE LOWS
AROUND THE MID-50S WITH URBAN CENTERS SLIGHTLY WARMER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...

THREE BLIND MICE? SURE SEEMS LIKE IT. THE NEIGHBORING OF THE GREAT
LAKES...NE-CANADA...AND NW-ATLANTIC LOWS LENDS TO A STRENGTHENING OF
THE SURFACE LABRADOR HIGH AND MID-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG WITH PERSISTING
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR. SHOULD BE A QUIET DAY WEATHER-WISE.

MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE THE CONTINUED ENCROACHMENT OF CLOUDS INTO NEW
ENGLAND...THE THICKEST OF WHICH WILL BE INTO THE CT-RIVER VALLEY.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT WILL KEEP W OF THE BERKSHIRES BASED
ON GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT OF CONTINUED ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR AS FAR W
AS THE HUDSON-RIVER VALLEY. BEST ISENTROPIC MOTIONS / LIFT PARENT
WITH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY REMAIN W ACROSS NY/PA COLLOCATED WITH THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT.

COMBINATION OF BOTH A THERMAL AND PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD RESULT IN
AN ONSHORE SEA-BREEZE FLOW BY MID-MORNING. WARMER AIRMASS FILTERING
INTO THE REGION ALOFT COUPLED WITH A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS AROUND THE
LOW-80S BENEATH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

TROUGHING PARENT TO THE GREAT LAKES LOW RENEWS LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND OUT TO SEA.
SUBSEQUENT FALLING HEIGHTS AS THE NE-CANADA LOW LIFTING NE RESULTS
IN THE GREAT LAKES CLOSED LOW AND ATTENDANT WARM-FRONT TO WOBBLE
INTO THE NE-CONUS. WILL SEE CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
ALLOWING THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THE CT-RIVER VALLEY.

EVALUATING MODEL FIELDS...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT OF SUBSIDENCE AND
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND. EVALUATING
ISENTROPIC FLOW AND FORCED ASCENT...ACTIVITY REMAINS ACROSS AND W OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. DECENT SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND ENHANCED
ASCENT COUPLED WITH A S/SW COMPONENT OF ISENTROPIC FLOW KEEPS THE
MAJORITY OF WET-WEATHER OUT OF OUR AREA. IN FACT...EVALUATING THETAE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD EXHIBITS EROSION AS IT ENCOUNTERS
MOISTURE-DEPRIVED DRIER AIR TO THE E.

ANOTHER EVENING OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW. WITH THE ENCROACHMENT OF
THE GREAT LAKES SYSTEM AS A WHOLE...HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE OF COOLEST
NIGHTTIME LOWS ACROSS E/SE NEW ENGLAND...WHEREAS THICKENING CLOUDS
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP THINGS MILD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. THE GFS
HAS COME MORE IN LINE BOTH WITH TODAYS ECMWF AS WELL AS YESTERDAYS
ECMWF RUN IN KEEPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS COMING OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WELL EAST OF OUR SHORE LINE. A PERSISTENT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY EAST...
MOVING OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES
NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER...
LESS SEASONABLE WEATHER WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL KEEP
THINGS RELATIVELY DRY. THIS HIGH WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY DROPPING SOUTH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND RETURNING US TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW. LOW
PRESSURE IN ONTARIO MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC
BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE THIS MAY INITIATE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

BEYOND THIS WEEKEND...THE FORECAST HERE WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE
EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. HOW
QUICKLY THE TROUGH PUSHES EAST VARIES GREATLY BY MODEL SO EXPECT A
GREATER THAN NORMAL POTENTIAL FOR AN EVER EVOLVING FORECAST FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THU. ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE SOME SPOTTY GROUND FOG
AT TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS BOTH THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY MAINLY W OF AN IJD-ORH-AFN LINE
DURING THE DAY ON THU.

FLOW SHIFTS FROM THE SW TO THE E THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...ASSISTED
BY SEA BREEZES. LIGHT AND VRB FLOW RETURNS AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH E
FLOW AGAIN ON THU.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY
MVFR/IFR FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER. PREVAILING E-WINDS. GUSTS OF 10-15 KTS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SE-WATERS...AND PERHAPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
NEAR-SHORE AS THE SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPS AROUND 10-11 AM WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.
SEAS MAY INCREASE ON THE OUTER WATERS THIS WEEKEND AS AN OCEAN
STORM PASSES WELL EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...DOODY/RLG
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 200541
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
141 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PATTERN STARTS TO BECOME A BIT MORE
UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
130 AM UPDATE...
AS MENTIONED BEFORE...THE UPPER LVL CI HAS BECOME MAINLY BKN
ACROSS THE REGION AND HAS SLOWED RADIATIONAL COOLING PROCESSES
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...NOTE THAT CLEARING IS BEGINNING TO
FILTER IN FROM THE W WITH DWPTS DROPPING INTO THE 40S.
THEREFORE...STILL PLENTY OF TIME BETWEEN NOW AND SUNRISE FOR TEMPS
TO FALL OFF THE TABLE. HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS AND MINS
ACCORDINGLY WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT OF WEAK ENHANCEMENT OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AS
IT PUSHES E ACROSS THE NE-CONUS. WILL KEEP WITH A DRY FORECAST WITH
PREVAILING SUBSIDENCE ACCOMPANIED BY HIGH PRESSURE UNDER LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS.

WATCHING THE CLOUD DECK PRESENTLY OVER PA/NY. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY
ADVECT E WITH THE W/SW-FLOW REARWARD OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. HIGH
CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER AND
THICKER CLOUDS INTO W NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS CAN
RESULT IN COMPLICATIONS IN BOTH OVERNIGHT LOWS AND DENSE FOG
POTENTIAL AND COULD TOTALLY RUIN THE FORECAST.

YET ALTOGETHER...NOTING CLOUDS ALONG WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND OF ANOTHER
NIGHT OF EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING. CONSIDERING TUESDAY
MORNING LOWS...WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS SHOULD BE AROUND THE UPPER-
40S ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE AREAS WHICH RADIATE WELL. ELSEWHERE LOWS
AROUND THE MID-50S WITH URBAN CENTERS SLIGHTLY WARMER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...

THREE BLIND MICE? SURE SEEMS LIKE IT. THE NEIGHBORING OF THE GREAT
LAKES...NE-CANADA...AND NW-ATLANTIC LOWS LENDS TO A STRENGTHENING OF
THE SURFACE LABRADOR HIGH AND MID-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG WITH PERSISTING
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR. SHOULD BE A QUIET DAY WEATHER-WISE.

MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE THE CONTINUED ENCROACHMENT OF CLOUDS INTO NEW
ENGLAND...THE THICKEST OF WHICH WILL BE INTO THE CT-RIVER VALLEY.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT WILL KEEP W OF THE BERKSHIRES BASED
ON GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT OF CONTINUED ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR AS FAR W
AS THE HUDSON-RIVER VALLEY. BEST ISENTROPIC MOTIONS / LIFT PARENT
WITH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY REMAIN W ACROSS NY/PA COLLOCATED WITH THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT.

COMBINATION OF BOTH A THERMAL AND PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD RESULT IN
AN ONSHORE SEA-BREEZE FLOW BY MID-MORNING. WARMER AIRMASS FILTERING
INTO THE REGION ALOFT COUPLED WITH A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS AROUND THE
LOW-80S BENEATH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

TROUGHING PARENT TO THE GREAT LAKES LOW RENEWS LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND OUT TO SEA.
SUBSEQUENT FALLING HEIGHTS AS THE NE-CANADA LOW LIFTING NE RESULTS
IN THE GREAT LAKES CLOSED LOW AND ATTENDANT WARM-FRONT TO WOBBLE
INTO THE NE-CONUS. WILL SEE CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
ALLOWING THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THE CT-RIVER VALLEY.

EVALUATING MODEL FIELDS...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT OF SUBSIDENCE AND
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND. EVALUATING
ISENTROPIC FLOW AND FORCED ASCENT...ACTIVITY REMAINS ACROSS AND W OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. DECENT SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND ENHANCED
ASCENT COUPLED WITH A S/SW COMPONENT OF ISENTROPIC FLOW KEEPS THE
MAJORITY OF WET-WEATHER OUT OF OUR AREA. IN FACT...EVALUATING THETAE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD EXHIBITS EROSION AS IT ENCOUNTERS
MOISTURE-DEPRIVED DRIER AIR TO THE E.

ANOTHER EVENING OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW. WITH THE ENCROACHMENT OF
THE GREAT LAKES SYSTEM AS A WHOLE...HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE OF COOLEST
NIGHTTIME LOWS ACROSS E/SE NEW ENGLAND...WHEREAS THICKENING CLOUDS
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP THINGS MILD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. THE GFS
HAS COME MORE IN LINE BOTH WITH TODAYS ECMWF AS WELL AS YESTERDAYS
ECMWF RUN IN KEEPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS COMING OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WELL EAST OF OUR SHORE LINE. A PERSISTENT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY EAST...
MOVING OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES
NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER...
LESS SEASONABLE WEATHER WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL KEEP
THINGS RELATIVELY DRY. THIS HIGH WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY DROPPING SOUTH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND RETURNING US TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW. LOW
PRESSURE IN ONTARIO MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC
BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE THIS MAY INITIATE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

BEYOND THIS WEEKEND...THE FORECAST HERE WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE
EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. HOW
QUICKLY THE TROUGH PUSHES EAST VARIES GREATLY BY MODEL SO EXPECT A
GREATER THAN NORMAL POTENTIAL FOR AN EVER EVOLVING FORECAST FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THU. ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE SOME SPOTTY GROUND FOG
AT TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS BOTH THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY MAINLY W OF AN IJD-ORH-AFN LINE
DURING THE DAY ON THU.

FLOW SHIFTS FROM THE SW TO THE E THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...ASSISTED
BY SEA BREEZES. LIGHT AND VRB FLOW RETURNS AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH E
FLOW AGAIN ON THU.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY
MVFR/IFR FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER. PREVAILING E-WINDS. GUSTS OF 10-15 KTS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SE-WATERS...AND PERHAPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
NEAR-SHORE AS THE SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPS AROUND 10-11 AM WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.
SEAS MAY INCREASE ON THE OUTER WATERS THIS WEEKEND AS AN OCEAN
STORM PASSES WELL EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...DOODY/RLG
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 200541
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
141 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PATTERN STARTS TO BECOME A BIT MORE
UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
130 AM UPDATE...
AS MENTIONED BEFORE...THE UPPER LVL CI HAS BECOME MAINLY BKN
ACROSS THE REGION AND HAS SLOWED RADIATIONAL COOLING PROCESSES
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...NOTE THAT CLEARING IS BEGINNING TO
FILTER IN FROM THE W WITH DWPTS DROPPING INTO THE 40S.
THEREFORE...STILL PLENTY OF TIME BETWEEN NOW AND SUNRISE FOR TEMPS
TO FALL OFF THE TABLE. HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS AND MINS
ACCORDINGLY WITH THIS UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT OF WEAK ENHANCEMENT OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AS
IT PUSHES E ACROSS THE NE-CONUS. WILL KEEP WITH A DRY FORECAST WITH
PREVAILING SUBSIDENCE ACCOMPANIED BY HIGH PRESSURE UNDER LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS.

WATCHING THE CLOUD DECK PRESENTLY OVER PA/NY. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY
ADVECT E WITH THE W/SW-FLOW REARWARD OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. HIGH
CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER AND
THICKER CLOUDS INTO W NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS CAN
RESULT IN COMPLICATIONS IN BOTH OVERNIGHT LOWS AND DENSE FOG
POTENTIAL AND COULD TOTALLY RUIN THE FORECAST.

YET ALTOGETHER...NOTING CLOUDS ALONG WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND OF ANOTHER
NIGHT OF EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING. CONSIDERING TUESDAY
MORNING LOWS...WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS SHOULD BE AROUND THE UPPER-
40S ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE AREAS WHICH RADIATE WELL. ELSEWHERE LOWS
AROUND THE MID-50S WITH URBAN CENTERS SLIGHTLY WARMER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...

THREE BLIND MICE? SURE SEEMS LIKE IT. THE NEIGHBORING OF THE GREAT
LAKES...NE-CANADA...AND NW-ATLANTIC LOWS LENDS TO A STRENGTHENING OF
THE SURFACE LABRADOR HIGH AND MID-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG WITH PERSISTING
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR. SHOULD BE A QUIET DAY WEATHER-WISE.

MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE THE CONTINUED ENCROACHMENT OF CLOUDS INTO NEW
ENGLAND...THE THICKEST OF WHICH WILL BE INTO THE CT-RIVER VALLEY.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT WILL KEEP W OF THE BERKSHIRES BASED
ON GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT OF CONTINUED ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR AS FAR W
AS THE HUDSON-RIVER VALLEY. BEST ISENTROPIC MOTIONS / LIFT PARENT
WITH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY REMAIN W ACROSS NY/PA COLLOCATED WITH THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT.

COMBINATION OF BOTH A THERMAL AND PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD RESULT IN
AN ONSHORE SEA-BREEZE FLOW BY MID-MORNING. WARMER AIRMASS FILTERING
INTO THE REGION ALOFT COUPLED WITH A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS AROUND THE
LOW-80S BENEATH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

TROUGHING PARENT TO THE GREAT LAKES LOW RENEWS LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND OUT TO SEA.
SUBSEQUENT FALLING HEIGHTS AS THE NE-CANADA LOW LIFTING NE RESULTS
IN THE GREAT LAKES CLOSED LOW AND ATTENDANT WARM-FRONT TO WOBBLE
INTO THE NE-CONUS. WILL SEE CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
ALLOWING THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THE CT-RIVER VALLEY.

EVALUATING MODEL FIELDS...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT OF SUBSIDENCE AND
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND. EVALUATING
ISENTROPIC FLOW AND FORCED ASCENT...ACTIVITY REMAINS ACROSS AND W OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. DECENT SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND ENHANCED
ASCENT COUPLED WITH A S/SW COMPONENT OF ISENTROPIC FLOW KEEPS THE
MAJORITY OF WET-WEATHER OUT OF OUR AREA. IN FACT...EVALUATING THETAE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD EXHIBITS EROSION AS IT ENCOUNTERS
MOISTURE-DEPRIVED DRIER AIR TO THE E.

ANOTHER EVENING OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW. WITH THE ENCROACHMENT OF
THE GREAT LAKES SYSTEM AS A WHOLE...HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE OF COOLEST
NIGHTTIME LOWS ACROSS E/SE NEW ENGLAND...WHEREAS THICKENING CLOUDS
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP THINGS MILD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. THE GFS
HAS COME MORE IN LINE BOTH WITH TODAYS ECMWF AS WELL AS YESTERDAYS
ECMWF RUN IN KEEPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS COMING OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WELL EAST OF OUR SHORE LINE. A PERSISTENT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY EAST...
MOVING OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES
NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER...
LESS SEASONABLE WEATHER WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL KEEP
THINGS RELATIVELY DRY. THIS HIGH WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY DROPPING SOUTH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND RETURNING US TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW. LOW
PRESSURE IN ONTARIO MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC
BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE THIS MAY INITIATE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

BEYOND THIS WEEKEND...THE FORECAST HERE WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE
EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. HOW
QUICKLY THE TROUGH PUSHES EAST VARIES GREATLY BY MODEL SO EXPECT A
GREATER THAN NORMAL POTENTIAL FOR AN EVER EVOLVING FORECAST FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THU. ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE SOME SPOTTY GROUND FOG
AT TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS BOTH THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY MAINLY W OF AN IJD-ORH-AFN LINE
DURING THE DAY ON THU.

FLOW SHIFTS FROM THE SW TO THE E THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...ASSISTED
BY SEA BREEZES. LIGHT AND VRB FLOW RETURNS AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH E
FLOW AGAIN ON THU.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY
MVFR/IFR FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER. PREVAILING E-WINDS. GUSTS OF 10-15 KTS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SE-WATERS...AND PERHAPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
NEAR-SHORE AS THE SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPS AROUND 10-11 AM WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.
SEAS MAY INCREASE ON THE OUTER WATERS THIS WEEKEND AS AN OCEAN
STORM PASSES WELL EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...DOODY/RLG
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 200200
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1000 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PATTERN STARTS TO BECOME A BIT MORE
UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
CONTINUE TO WATCH A BAND OF UPPER LVL CI AND EVEN A FEW PATCHES OF
MID LVL STRATO-CU MOVING E-NE FROM THE AXIS OF THE APPALACHIANS.
AS NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THIS MAKES OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS TRICKY. WINDS ARE ALREADY NEARING CALM
THANKS TO THE VERY WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND LOSS OF DIURNAL HEAT
SUPPORT. HOWEVER...TO WHAT EXTENT...IF AT ALL...THE CLOUDS LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING REMAINS IN QUESTION. STILL THINK SOME OF THE
DEEPER VALLEYS ACROSS NW MA AND SW NH SHOULD RADIATE SOME...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION AT LEAST UPPER 40S IN SOME OF THESE
SPOTS. SOME OF THE NORMAL RADIATORS ARE LIKELY TO FALL BACK AS
WELL. THEREFORE...HAVE TENTATIVELY LOWERED MINS A BIT WITH THIS
UPDATE...MAINLY BECAUSE IT SHOULD RADIATE SOME AS LONG AS THIS
CLOUD DECK REMAIN GENERALLY 20KFT OR ABOVE AND SPARSE. WILL HAVE
TO WATCH TRENDS CLOSELY.

TONIGHT...

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT OF WEAK ENHANCEMENT OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AS
IT PUSHES E ACROSS THE NE-CONUS. WILL KEEP WITH A DRY FORECAST WITH
PREVAILING SUBSIDENCE ACCOMPANIED BY HIGH PRESSURE UNDER LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS.

WATCHING THE CLOUD DECK PRESENTLY OVER PA/NY. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY
ADVECT E WITH THE W/SW-FLOW REARWARD OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. HIGH
CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER AND
THICKER CLOUDS INTO W NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS CAN
RESULT IN COMPLICATIONS IN BOTH OVERNIGHT LOWS AND DENSE FOG
POTENTIAL AND COULD TOTALLY RUIN THE FORECAST.

YET ALTOGETHER...NOTING CLOUDS ALONG WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND OF ANOTHER
NIGHT OF EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING. CONSIDERING TUESDAY
MORNING LOWS...WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS SHOULD BE AROUND THE UPPER-
40S ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE AREAS WHICH RADIATE WELL. ELSEWHERE LOWS
AROUND THE MID-50S WITH URBAN CENTERS SLIGHTLY WARMER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...

THREE BLIND MICE? SURE SEEMS LIKE IT. THE NEIGHBORING OF THE GREAT
LAKES...NE-CANADA...AND NW-ATLANTIC LOWS LENDS TO A STRENGTHENING OF
THE SURFACE LABRADOR HIGH AND MID-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG WITH PERSISTING
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR. SHOULD BE A QUIET DAY WEATHER-WISE.

MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE THE CONTINUED ENCROACHMENT OF CLOUDS INTO NEW
ENGLAND...THE THICKEST OF WHICH WILL BE INTO THE CT-RIVER VALLEY.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT WILL KEEP W OF THE BERKSHIRES BASED
ON GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT OF CONTINUED ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR AS FAR W
AS THE HUDSON-RIVER VALLEY. BEST ISENTROPIC MOTIONS / LIFT PARENT
WITH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY REMAIN W ACROSS NY/PA COLLOCATED WITH THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT.

COMBINATION OF BOTH A THERMAL AND PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD RESULT IN
AN ONSHORE SEA-BREEZE FLOW BY MID-MORNING. WARMER AIRMASS FILTERING
INTO THE REGION ALOFT COUPLED WITH A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS AROUND THE
LOW-80S BENEATH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

TROUGHING PARENT TO THE GREAT LAKES LOW RENEWS LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND OUT TO SEA.
SUBSEQUENT FALLING HEIGHTS AS THE NE-CANADA LOW LIFTING NE RESULTS
IN THE GREAT LAKES CLOSED LOW AND ATTENDANT WARM-FRONT TO WOBBLE
INTO THE NE-CONUS. WILL SEE CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
ALLOWING THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THE CT-RIVER VALLEY.

EVALUATING MODEL FIELDS...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT OF SUBSIDENCE AND
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND. EVALUATING
ISENTROPIC FLOW AND FORCED ASCENT...ACTIVITY REMAINS ACROSS AND W OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. DECENT SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND ENHANCED
ASCENT COUPLED WITH A S/SW COMPONENT OF ISENTROPIC FLOW KEEPS THE
MAJORITY OF WET-WEATHER OUT OF OUR AREA. IN FACT...EVALUATING THETAE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD EXHIBITS EROSION AS IT ENCOUNTERS
MOISTURE-DEPRIVED DRIER AIR TO THE E.

ANOTHER EVENING OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW. WITH THE ENCROACHMENT OF
THE GREAT LAKES SYSTEM AS A WHOLE...HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE OF COOLEST
NIGHTTIME LOWS ACROSS E/SE NEW ENGLAND...WHEREAS THICKENING CLOUDS
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP THINGS MILD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. THE GFS
HAS COME MORE IN LINE BOTH WITH TODAYS ECMWF AS WELL AS YESTERDAYS
ECMWF RUN IN KEEPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS COMING OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WELL EAST OF OUR SHORE LINE. A PERSISTENT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY EAST...
MOVING OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES
NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER...
LESS SEASONABLE WEATHER WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL KEEP
THINGS RELATIVELY DRY. THIS HIGH WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY DROPPING SOUTH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND RETURNING US TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW. LOW
PRESSURE IN ONTARIO MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC
BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE THIS MAY INITIATE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

BEYOND THIS WEEKEND...THE FORECAST HERE WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE
EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. HOW
QUICKLY THE TROUGH PUSHES EAST VARIES GREATLY BY MODEL SO EXPECT A
GREATER THAN NORMAL POTENTIAL FOR AN EVER EVOLVING FORECAST FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

00Z UPDATE...

MAINLY VFR. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS ALONG WITH PATCHY MVFR-IFR FOG
OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SEABREEZE LIKELY AGAIN
WEDNESDAY. LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR-IFR CIGS ACROSS SE MA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY
MVFR/IFR FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER. PREVAILING E-WINDS. GUSTS OF 10-15 KTS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SE-WATERS...AND PERHAPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
NEAR-SHORE AS THE SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPS AROUND 10-11 AM WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.
SEAS MAY INCREASE ON THE OUTER WATERS THIS WEEKEND AS AN OCEAN
STORM PASSES WELL EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL



000
FXUS61 KBOX 192306
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
706 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PATTERN STARTS TO BECOME A BIT MORE
UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO END A
BEAUTIFUL DAY. SEABREEZES CONTINUE BUT ARE BECOMING LIGHTER AND
SHOULD BECOME EITHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR SHIFT BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
TEMPERATURE GRIDS...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

TONIGHT...

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT OF WEAK ENHANCEMENT OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AS
IT PUSHES E ACROSS THE NE-CONUS. WILL KEEP WITH A DRY FORECAST WITH
PREVAILING SUBSIDENCE ACCOMPANIED BY HIGH PRESSURE UNDER LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS.

WATCHING THE CLOUD DECK PRESENTLY OVER PA/NY. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY
ADVECT E WITH THE W/SW-FLOW REARWARD OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. HIGH
CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER AND
THICKER CLOUDS INTO W NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS CAN
RESULT IN COMPLICATIONS IN BOTH OVERNIGHT LOWS AND DENSE FOG
POTENTIAL AND COULD TOTALLY RUIN THE FORECAST.

YET ALTOGETHER...NOTING CLOUDS ALONG WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND OF ANOTHER
NIGHT OF EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING. CONSIDERING TUESDAY
MORNING LOWS...WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS SHOULD BE AROUND THE UPPER-
40S ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE AREAS WHICH RADIATE WELL. ELSEWHERE LOWS
AROUND THE MID-50S WITH URBAN CENTERS SLIGHTLY WARMER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...

THREE BLIND MICE? SURE SEEMS LIKE IT. THE NEIGHBORING OF THE GREAT
LAKES...NE-CANADA...AND NW-ATLANTIC LOWS LENDS TO A STRENGTHENING OF
THE SURFACE LABRADOR HIGH AND MID-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG WITH PERSISTING
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR. SHOULD BE A QUIET DAY WEATHER-WISE.

MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE THE CONTINUED ENCROACHMENT OF CLOUDS INTO NEW
ENGLAND...THE THICKEST OF WHICH WILL BE INTO THE CT-RIVER VALLEY.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT WILL KEEP W OF THE BERKSHIRES BASED
ON GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT OF CONTINUED ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR AS FAR W
AS THE HUDSON-RIVER VALLEY. BEST ISENTROPIC MOTIONS / LIFT PARENT
WITH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY REMAIN W ACROSS NY/PA COLLOCATED WITH THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT.

COMBINATION OF BOTH A THERMAL AND PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD RESULT IN
AN ONSHORE SEA-BREEZE FLOW BY MID-MORNING. WARMER AIRMASS FILTERING
INTO THE REGION ALOFT COUPLED WITH A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS AROUND THE
LOW-80S BENEATH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

TROUGHING PARENT TO THE GREAT LAKES LOW RENEWS LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND OUT TO SEA.
SUBSEQUENT FALLING HEIGHTS AS THE NE-CANADA LOW LIFTING NE RESULTS
IN THE GREAT LAKES CLOSED LOW AND ATTENDANT WARM-FRONT TO WOBBLE
INTO THE NE-CONUS. WILL SEE CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
ALLOWING THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THE CT-RIVER VALLEY.

EVALUATING MODEL FIELDS...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT OF SUBSIDENCE AND
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND. EVALUATING
ISENTROPIC FLOW AND FORCED ASCENT...ACTIVITY REMAINS ACROSS AND W OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. DECENT SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND ENHANCED
ASCENT COUPLED WITH A S/SW COMPONENT OF ISENTROPIC FLOW KEEPS THE
MAJORITY OF WET-WEATHER OUT OF OUR AREA. IN FACT...EVALUATING THETAE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD EXHIBITS EROSION AS IT ENCOUNTERS
MOISTURE-DEPRIVED DRIER AIR TO THE E.

ANOTHER EVENING OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW. WITH THE ENCROACHMENT OF
THE GREAT LAKES SYSTEM AS A WHOLE...HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE OF COOLEST
NIGHTTIME LOWS ACROSS E/SE NEW ENGLAND...WHEREAS THICKENING CLOUDS
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP THINGS MILD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. THE GFS
HAS COME MORE IN LINE BOTH WITH TODAYS ECMWF AS WELL AS YESTERDAYS
ECMWF RUN IN KEEPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS COMING OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WELL EAST OF OUR SHORE LINE. A PERSISTENT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY EAST...
MOVING OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES
NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER...
LESS SEASONABLE WEATHER WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL KEEP
THINGS RELATIVELY DRY. THIS HIGH WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY DROPPING SOUTH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND RETURNING US TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW. LOW
PRESSURE IN ONTARIO MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC
BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE THIS MAY INITIATE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

BEYOND THIS WEEKEND...THE FORECAST HERE WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE
EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. HOW
QUICKLY THE TROUGH PUSHES EAST VARIES GREATLY BY MODEL SO EXPECT A
GREATER THAN NORMAL POTENTIAL FOR AN EVER EVOLVING FORECAST FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

00Z UPDATE...

MAINLY VFR. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS ALONG WITH PATCHY MVFR-IFR FOG
OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SEABREEZE LIKELY AGAIN
WEDNESDAY. LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR-IFR CIGS ACROSS SE MA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY
MVFR/IFR FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER. PREVAILING E-WINDS. GUSTS OF 10-15 KTS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SE-WATERS...AND PERHAPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
NEAR-SHORE AS THE SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPS AROUND 10-11 AM WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.
SEAS MAY INCREASE ON THE OUTER WATERS THIS WEEKEND AS AN OCEAN
STORM PASSES WELL EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...RLG/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 192306
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
706 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PATTERN STARTS TO BECOME A BIT MORE
UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO END A
BEAUTIFUL DAY. SEABREEZES CONTINUE BUT ARE BECOMING LIGHTER AND
SHOULD BECOME EITHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR SHIFT BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
TEMPERATURE GRIDS...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

TONIGHT...

GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT OF WEAK ENHANCEMENT OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AS
IT PUSHES E ACROSS THE NE-CONUS. WILL KEEP WITH A DRY FORECAST WITH
PREVAILING SUBSIDENCE ACCOMPANIED BY HIGH PRESSURE UNDER LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS.

WATCHING THE CLOUD DECK PRESENTLY OVER PA/NY. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY
ADVECT E WITH THE W/SW-FLOW REARWARD OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. HIGH
CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER AND
THICKER CLOUDS INTO W NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS CAN
RESULT IN COMPLICATIONS IN BOTH OVERNIGHT LOWS AND DENSE FOG
POTENTIAL AND COULD TOTALLY RUIN THE FORECAST.

YET ALTOGETHER...NOTING CLOUDS ALONG WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND OF ANOTHER
NIGHT OF EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING. CONSIDERING TUESDAY
MORNING LOWS...WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS SHOULD BE AROUND THE UPPER-
40S ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE AREAS WHICH RADIATE WELL. ELSEWHERE LOWS
AROUND THE MID-50S WITH URBAN CENTERS SLIGHTLY WARMER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...

THREE BLIND MICE? SURE SEEMS LIKE IT. THE NEIGHBORING OF THE GREAT
LAKES...NE-CANADA...AND NW-ATLANTIC LOWS LENDS TO A STRENGTHENING OF
THE SURFACE LABRADOR HIGH AND MID-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG WITH PERSISTING
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR. SHOULD BE A QUIET DAY WEATHER-WISE.

MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE THE CONTINUED ENCROACHMENT OF CLOUDS INTO NEW
ENGLAND...THE THICKEST OF WHICH WILL BE INTO THE CT-RIVER VALLEY.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT WILL KEEP W OF THE BERKSHIRES BASED
ON GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT OF CONTINUED ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR AS FAR W
AS THE HUDSON-RIVER VALLEY. BEST ISENTROPIC MOTIONS / LIFT PARENT
WITH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY REMAIN W ACROSS NY/PA COLLOCATED WITH THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT.

COMBINATION OF BOTH A THERMAL AND PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD RESULT IN
AN ONSHORE SEA-BREEZE FLOW BY MID-MORNING. WARMER AIRMASS FILTERING
INTO THE REGION ALOFT COUPLED WITH A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS AROUND THE
LOW-80S BENEATH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

TROUGHING PARENT TO THE GREAT LAKES LOW RENEWS LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND OUT TO SEA.
SUBSEQUENT FALLING HEIGHTS AS THE NE-CANADA LOW LIFTING NE RESULTS
IN THE GREAT LAKES CLOSED LOW AND ATTENDANT WARM-FRONT TO WOBBLE
INTO THE NE-CONUS. WILL SEE CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
ALLOWING THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THE CT-RIVER VALLEY.

EVALUATING MODEL FIELDS...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT OF SUBSIDENCE AND
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND. EVALUATING
ISENTROPIC FLOW AND FORCED ASCENT...ACTIVITY REMAINS ACROSS AND W OF
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. DECENT SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND ENHANCED
ASCENT COUPLED WITH A S/SW COMPONENT OF ISENTROPIC FLOW KEEPS THE
MAJORITY OF WET-WEATHER OUT OF OUR AREA. IN FACT...EVALUATING THETAE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD EXHIBITS EROSION AS IT ENCOUNTERS
MOISTURE-DEPRIVED DRIER AIR TO THE E.

ANOTHER EVENING OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW. WITH THE ENCROACHMENT OF
THE GREAT LAKES SYSTEM AS A WHOLE...HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE OF COOLEST
NIGHTTIME LOWS ACROSS E/SE NEW ENGLAND...WHEREAS THICKENING CLOUDS
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP THINGS MILD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. THE GFS
HAS COME MORE IN LINE BOTH WITH TODAYS ECMWF AS WELL AS YESTERDAYS
ECMWF RUN IN KEEPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS COMING OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WELL EAST OF OUR SHORE LINE. A PERSISTENT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY EAST...
MOVING OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES
NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER...
LESS SEASONABLE WEATHER WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC WILL KEEP
THINGS RELATIVELY DRY. THIS HIGH WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY DROPPING SOUTH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND RETURNING US TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW. LOW
PRESSURE IN ONTARIO MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC
BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE THIS MAY INITIATE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

BEYOND THIS WEEKEND...THE FORECAST HERE WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE
EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. HOW
QUICKLY THE TROUGH PUSHES EAST VARIES GREATLY BY MODEL SO EXPECT A
GREATER THAN NORMAL POTENTIAL FOR AN EVER EVOLVING FORECAST FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

00Z UPDATE...

MAINLY VFR. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS ALONG WITH PATCHY MVFR-IFR FOG
OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SEABREEZE LIKELY AGAIN
WEDNESDAY. LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR-IFR CIGS ACROSS SE MA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY
MVFR/IFR FOG EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

QUIET BOATING WEATHER. PREVAILING E-WINDS. GUSTS OF 10-15 KTS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SE-WATERS...AND PERHAPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
NEAR-SHORE AS THE SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPS AROUND 10-11 AM WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.
SEAS MAY INCREASE ON THE OUTER WATERS THIS WEEKEND AS AN OCEAN
STORM PASSES WELL EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RLG/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...RLG/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL



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