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000
FXUS61 KBOX 241320
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
920 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and few embedded thunderstorms will focus
primarily across Western portions of MA and CT this afternoon as
low pressure slowly moves across southeastern New England. An
upper level high pressure ridge will then bring very warm to
borderline hot weather to most of the region Wednesday through
Saturday, except for times of cooler temperatures on the immediate
coast. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday night
into Friday, but a better chance exists Saturday afternoon and
evening ahead of the cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

915 am update...

Not much change from previous forecast. Showers and isolated
thunder focused across northern and western MA including western
CT. This convection is on the nose of a short wave trough moving
across the region. On the backside of this feature drier mid level
air is beginning to overspread the area and is supporting more low
top showers and drizzle moving onshore to RI and Eastern MA.

Moving forward into the afternoon...northeast winds and low clouds
will contiue across RI and Eastern MA leading to mist/drizzle and
scattered low top showers. Thus not a washout but damp and dreary.
Farther west into CT and Western-Central MA...away from the
northeast onshore flow low clouds give way to higher ceilings
along with a few breaks of sunshine and scattered showers. All
model guid including the SSEO and NCAR ensembles suggest any
limited instability /250-750 j-kg/ will be confined to Western
portions of CT and MA. This is where showers will be most numerous
this afternoon and early evening along with the risk of a few
thunderstorms. Although NOT expecting any strong storms given lack
of instability and shear.

Cool temps today especially along the coast given northeast
winds...clouds and light precip. Milder inland away from the
onshore flow along with a few breaks of sunshine. Previous
forecast on track so no major changes with this update. Earlier
discussion below.

====================================================================

Bulk of scattered showers with brief heavy rain and were mainly to
the northwest of a Boston to Providence line with the steadiest
of activity in Western MA.

Will see a brief break in the action except for a few showers
lingering through late morning. Then activity looks to start firing
up again later today, with another round of sct showers/isold
thunderstorms develop mainly across W MA and N CT this afternoon,
but not much in Eastern MA/RI given cool stabilizing marine layer.

00Z short range model suite continue to signal the instability
remaining across the region, with total totals up to the lower to
mid 50s /more robust on the NAM/, surface based LIs down to zero
to -2 and K indices to the lower 30s. Also noted CAPES on order
of 400-500 J/kg this afternoon across this area so, along with H5
temps down to -18C to -19C in the core of the cold pool as it
crosses the region, so there is a low risk for isolated small hail
reports in Western MA/Northern CT.

Convection should begin to wane toward sunset, but will linger
across N and W MA into N central CT into the evening.

With the onshore winds continuing, albeit light, temps will only
rise to around 60 along the immediate coast, but look to reach to
the upper 60s to near 70 across the CT valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...

Tonight...

As the H5 upper low and the associated surface reflection continue
to move slowly NE tonight, will see some leftover isolated
showers/thunderstorms into this evening before finally ending.

With light and variable winds in place along with wet ground in
many places, will likely see patchy fog redevelop overnight.
Also, cooler, drier air will not rush in with light pres gradient
in place, so temps will not fall back too far tonight. Expect lows
in the 50-55 degree range.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Highlights...

* Very warm Wed/Thu/Fri with highs well up into the 80s except
  cooler immediate coast at times
* Hot Saturday afternoon w/highs mainly upper 80s to the lower 90s
* A few showers/t-storms possible Thu night/Fri but best chance Sat
  afternoon/evening ahead of cold front
* Turning much cooler Sun and especially Mon along the coast


Details...

Wednesday...Closed upper level low lifts northeast of our region
allowing for rising heights/warmer mid level temps.  More
importantly, surface winds will turn to the west which makes a huge
difference in afternoon high temps this time of year.  Given 850T
between 13c/14c and plenty of late May sunshine, high temps should
be in the mid to upper 80s for most including Boston, as any sea
breezes that develop along the Eastern MA coast will be overcome by
increasing gradient by afternoon.  A few locations may even touch
90. It will be a bit cooler on the south coast/Cape/Islands, but
still should see highs well into the 70s to near 80.

Dry weather will dominate Wednesday, but there is a low risk of a
spot shower/t-storm during the afternoon/early evening across the
interior.  Limiting factors though will be dry mid levels and lack
of low level forcing.

Wednesday night...Other than a low risk for a spot shower/t-storm
across the interior during the evening dry weather is expected
behind a weak cold front. Low temps will only fall back into the 50s
in most locations with 60 to 65 in some of the urban centers.  A
touch of patchy fog may develop in the typically prone locations
toward daybreak.

Thursday...Upper level ridging across the Southeast U.S. continues
to nose into southern New England.  This will result in plenty of
sunshine and with warm mid level temps, highs again should reach
well into the 80s in most locations.  However, gradient will be
weaker allowing for sea breezes to develop on the immediate Eastern
MA coast including Boston by early afternoon. High temps will still
likely reach well up into the 70s to near 80 in this region before
sea breezes develop and temps fall a bit. Should remain dry given
lack of forcing and upper level ridging nosing into this region.

Thursday night and Friday...A shortwave will lift northeast into
northern New England Thu night/Fri.  While the best forcing will to
our north, a few showers/t-storms are possible with the best chance
across western and northern MA.  Certainly not expecting a washout
though and the majority of the Thu night/Fri will be dry.
Still looks like a warm afternoon with temps into the 80s, but it
may be cooler across Northeast MA depending on location of backdoor
cold front.

Saturday...A hot day with westerly flow and 850T near 16c.  This
should yield highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s for most locations.
Dewpoints into the 60s will make it feel somewhat muggy.
Pre-frontal trough ahead of an approaching cold front may trigger
scattered showers/thunderstorms mainly Saturday afternoon and
evening.

Sunday and Monday...High pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will
build south into New England.  So despite rather high height fields,
northeast low level flow will result in much cooler temps Sun and
especially Mon particularly along the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

920 am update ... no major changes from 12z TAFs. Lowest
cigs/vsbys will be over RI and Eastern MA along with mist/drizzle
and a few showers. Inland across CT and Western-Central MA
cigs/vsbys in the MVFR range but showers will be more numerous
across this area along with low risk of a few afternoon
thunderstorms. Earlier discussion below.

====================================================================

Today...Moderate confidence.

Mainly IFR conditions along the coastal plain this morning in low
clouds and patchy fog.  These conditions will likely improve to low
end MVFR this afternoon, except for the Cape and Islands. Across the
interior...much of the region will see ceilings lower to MVFR levels
by mid to late morning and these conditions mainly continuing
through the afternoon.

Scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms shifting focus to mainly
Western MA and Northern CT by afternoon.

Tonight...Moderate confidence.

Isolated SHRA/TSRA lingers across central and N MA through this
evening, then ending. Patchy fog lingers along E coastal MA with
MVFR-IFR VSBYS, while fog redevelops away from the coast with
areas of MVFR VSBYS. Light/vrbl winds.

KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence. IFR conditions this morning probably
improve to low end MVFR this afternoon.  Scattered showers mainly
northwest of the terminal most of the day.

KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence. Conditions will lower to MVFR this
morning and persist into the afternoon. Scattered showers at times
with a low risk of an embedded t-storm this afternoon/early evening.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Wednesday and Thursday...High confidence. VFR conditions other
than a few hours of patchy ground fog possible toward daybreak Thu
in the typically prone locations.

Thursday night and Friday...Moderate confidence.  VFR conditions
likely dominate but some brief MVFR conditions possible in a few
showers/t-storms mainly across the interior.

Saturday...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR conditions but brief
MVFR- IFR conditions possible Saturday afternoon/evening in
scattered showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through 12Z...Moderate confidence.

Expect E-NE winds less than 15 kt and seas below 5 ft. Visibility
reductions in showers, widely scattered thunderstorms and patchy
fog. Today...Moderate Confidence.

E-NE winds less than 15 kt. Seas will build up to 5-6 ft across
the outer waters from Cape Cod southward, mainly in S-SE swells
this afternoon. Local visibility restrictions in scattered
showers, isolated thunderstorms and patchy fog. Winds will back
to N during the afternoon. Small crafts have been issued for
portions of the outer waters.

Tonight...Moderate Confidence.

N-NW winds as low pressure moves offshore, but remaining light.
E-SE swells will remain at 5-6 ft through around midnight, then
will slowly subside toward daybreak. Small crafts will continue
for portions of the outer waters. May see local visibility
restrictions in patchy fog. Low risk of isolated showers early.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...High Confidence.

Winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds
the majority of the period with the exception being Wednesday
night. Some brief near shore southwest wind gusts of 20 to 25
knots are likely Wed afternoon...which will result in some choppy
seas. In addition, long southwest fetch may bring a period of 5
foot seas across our southern waters Wednesday night which may
require headlines.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Wednesday...High temperatures soaring well into the 80s in most
locations will result in minimum afternoon RH values dropping to
between 20 and 30 percent.  A few hours of westerly wind gusts of 20
to 25 mph are anticipated. Given this morning`s rainfall and
marginal criteria, will probably fall short on the need for fire
weather headlines.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 1 PM this
     afternoon to 4 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ254-255.
     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 3 PM this
     afternoon to 1 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Frank/EVT
NEAR TERM...Frank/Nocera/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...Frank
AVIATION...Frank/Nocera/EVT
MARINE...Frank/Nocera/EVT
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 241120
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
720 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

Scattered showers and few embedded thunderstorms this morning will
focus primarily across Western MA and Northern CT by afternoon as
low pressure slowly moves across southeastern New England. An
upper level high pressure ridge will then bring very warm to
borderline hot weather to most of the region Wednesday through
Saturday, except for times of cooler temperatures on the immediate
coast. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday night
into Friday, but a better chance exists Saturday afternoon and
evening ahead of the cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

720 am update...

Bulk of scattered showers with brief heavy rain and were mainly to
the northwest of a Boston to Providence line with the steadiest
of activity in Western MA.

Will see a brief break in the action except for a few showers
lingering through late morning. Then activity looks to start firing
up again later today, with another round of sct showers/isold
thunderstorms develop mainly across W MA and N CT this afternoon,
but not much in Eastern MA/RI given cool stabilizing marine layer.

00Z short range model suite continue to signal the instability
remaining across the region, with total totals up to the lower to
mid 50s /more robust on the NAM/, surface based LIs down to zero
to -2 and K indices to the lower 30s. Also noted CAPES on order
of 400-500 J/kg this afternoon across this area so, along with H5
temps down to -18C to -19C in the core of the cold pool as it
crosses the region, so there is a low risk for isolated small hail
reports in Western MA/Northern CT.

Convection should begin to wane toward sunset, but will linger
across N and W MA into N central CT into the evening.

With the onshore winds continuing, albeit light, temps will only
rise to around 60 along the immediate coast, but look to reach to
the upper 60s to near 70 across the CT valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...

Tonight...

As the H5 upper low and the associated surface reflection continue
to move slowly NE tonight, will see some leftover isolated
showers/thunderstorms into this evening before finally ending.

With light and variable winds in place along with wet ground in
many places, will likely see patchy fog redevelop overnight.
Also, cooler, drier air will not rush in with light pres gradient
in place, so temps will not fall back too far tonight. Expect lows
in the 50-55 degree range.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Highlights...

* Very warm Wed/Thu/Fri with highs well up into the 80s except
  cooler immediate coast at times
* Hot Saturday afternoon w/highs mainly upper 80s to the lower 90s
* A few showers/t-storms possible Thu night/Fri but best chance Sat
  afternoon/evening ahead of cold front
* Turning much cooler Sun and especially Mon along the coast


Details...

Wednesday...Closed upper level low lifts northeast of our region
allowing for rising heights/warmer mid level temps.  More
importantly, surface winds will turn to the west which makes a huge
difference in afternoon high temps this time of year.  Given 850T
between 13c/14c and plenty of late May sunshine, high temps should
be in the mid to upper 80s for most including Boston, as any sea
breezes that develop along the Eastern MA coast will be overcome by
increasing gradient by afternoon.  A few locations may even touch
90. It will be a bit cooler on the south coast/Cape/Islands, but
still should see highs well into the 70s to near 80.

Dry weather will dominate Wednesday, but there is a low risk of a
spot shower/t-storm during the afternoon/early evening across the
interior.  Limiting factors though will be dry mid levels and lack
of low level forcing.

Wednesday night...Other than a low risk for a spot shower/t-storm
across the interior during the evening dry weather is expected
behind a weak cold front. Low temps will only fall back into the 50s
in most locations with 60 to 65 in some of the urban centers.  A
touch of patchy fog may develop in the typically prone locations
toward daybreak.

Thursday...Upper level ridging across the Southeast U.S. continues
to nose into southern New England.  This will result in plenty of
sunshine and with warm mid level temps, highs again should reach
well into the 80s in most locations.  However, gradient will be
weaker allowing for sea breezes to develop on the immediate Eastern
MA coast including Boston by early afternoon. High temps will still
likely reach well up into the 70s to near 80 in this region before
sea breezes develop and temps fall a bit. Should remain dry given
lack of forcing and upper level ridging nosing into this region.

Thursday night and Friday...A shortwave will lift northeast into
northern New England Thu night/Fri.  While the best forcing will to
our north, a few showers/t-storms are possible with the best chance
across western and northern MA.  Certainly not expecting a washout
though and the majority of the Thu night/Fri will be dry.
Still looks like a warm afternoon with temps into the 80s, but it
may be cooler across Northeast MA depending on location of backdoor
cold front.

Saturday...A hot day with westerly flow and 850T near 16c.  This
should yield highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s for most locations.
Dewpoints into the 60s will make it feel somewhat muggy.
Pre-frontal trough ahead of an approaching cold front may trigger
scattered showers/thunderstorms mainly Saturday afternoon and
evening.

Sunday and Monday...High pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will
build south into New England.  So despite rather high height fields,
northeast low level flow will result in much cooler temps Sun and
especially Mon particularly along the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today...Moderate confidence.

Mainly IFR conditions along the coastal plain this morning in low
clouds and patchy fog.  These conditions will likely improve to low
end MVFR this afternoon, except for the Cape and Islands. Across the
interior...much of the region will see ceilings lower to MVFR levels
by mid to late morning and these conditions mainly continuing
through the afternoon.

Scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms shifting focus to mainly
Western MA and Northern CT by afternoon.

Tonight...Moderate confidence.

Isolated SHRA/TSRA lingers across central and N MA through this
evening, then ending. Patchy fog lingers along E coastal MA with
MVFR-IFR VSBYS, while fog redevelops away from the coast with
areas of MVFR VSBYS. Light/vrbl winds.

KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence. IFR conditions this morning probably
improve to low end MVFR this afternoon.  Scattered showers mainly
northwest of the terminal most of the day.

KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence. Conditions will lower to MVFR this
morning and persist into the afternoon. Scattered showers at times
with a low risk of an embedded t-storm this afternoon/early evening.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Wednesday and Thursday...High confidence. VFR conditions other
than a few hours of patchy ground fog possible toward daybreak Thu
in the typically prone locations.

Thursday night and Friday...Moderate confidence.  VFR conditions
likely dominate but some brief MVFR conditions possible in a few
showers/t-storms mainly across the interior.

Saturday...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR conditions but brief
MVFR- IFR conditions possible Saturday afternoon/evening in
scattered showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through 12Z...Moderate confidence.

Expect E-NE winds less than 15 kt and seas below 5 ft. Visibility
reductions in showers, widely scattered thunderstorms and patchy
fog. Today...Moderate Confidence.

E-NE winds less than 15 kt. Seas will build up to 5-6 ft across
the outer waters from Cape Cod southward, mainly in S-SE swells
this afternoon. Local visibility restrictions in scattered
showers, isolated thunderstorms and patchy fog. Winds will back
to N during the afternoon. Small crafts have been issued for
portions of the outer waters.

Tonight...Moderate Confidence.

N-NW winds as low pressure moves offshore, but remaining light.
E-SE swells will remain at 5-6 ft through around midnight, then
will slowly subside toward daybreak. Small crafts will continue
for portions of the outer waters. May see local visibility
restrictions in patchy fog. Low risk of isolated showers early.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...High Confidence.

Winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds
the majority of the period with the exception being Wednesday
night. Some brief near shore southwest wind gusts of 20 to 25
knots are likely Wed afternoon...which will result in some choppy
seas. In addition, long southwest fetch may bring a period of 5
foot seas across our southern waters Wednesday night which may
require headlines.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Wednesday...High temperatures soaring well into the 80s in most
locations will result in minimum afternoon RH values dropping to
between 20 and 30 percent.  A few hours of westerly wind gusts of 20
to 25 mph are anticipated. Given this morning`s rainfall and
marginal criteria, will probably fall short on the need for fire
weather headlines.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 1 PM this
     afternoon to 4 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ254-255.
     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 3 PM this
     afternoon to 1 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT/Frank
NEAR TERM...Frank/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...Frank
AVIATION...EVT/Frank
MARINE...EVT/Frank




000
FXUS61 KBOX 240940
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
540 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and few embedded thunderstorms this morning will
focus primarily across Western MA and Northern CT by afternoon as
low pressure slowly moves across southeastern New England. An
upper level high pressure ridge will then bring very warm to
borderline hot weather to most of the region Wednesday through
Saturday, except for times of cooler temperatures on the immediate
coast. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday night
into Friday, but a better chance exists Saturday afternoon and
evening ahead of the cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continue to rotate N-NW
across the region at 09Z. Noted several reports of thunderstorms,
including a tree split in two in Acushnet. Will continue to
monitor those.

Band of showers with embedded thunderstorms will shift into S NH
over next couple of hours, while more showers continue to rotate
around upper low across W MA/N CT through mid morning. Good
instability still in place as well with core of H5 cold pool
slowly shifting toward the region, so can not rule out more
isolated convection through mid morning.

Will see a brief break in the action except for a few showers
lingering through mid to late morning. Then convection looks to
start firing up again, with another round of sct showers/isold
thunderstorms develop mainly across W MA and N CT.

00Z short range model suite continue to signal the instability
remaining across the region, with total totals up to the lower to
mid 50s /more robust on the NAM/, surface based LIs down to zero
to -2 and K indices to the lower 30s. Also noted CAPES on order
of 400-500 J/kg this afternoon across this area so, along with H5
temps down to -18C to -19C in the core of the cold pool as it
crosses the region, can not rule out any small hail that could
develop in any thunderstorms.

Convection should begin to wane toward sunset, but will linger
across N and W MA into N central CT into the evening.

With the onshore winds continuing, albeit light, temps will only
rise to around 60 along the immediate coast, but look to reach to
the upper 60s to near 70 across the CT valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...

Tonight...

As the H5 upper low and the associated surface reflection continue
to move slowly NE tonight, will see some leftover isolated
showers/thunderstorms into this evening before finally ending.

With light and variable winds in place along with wet ground in
many places, will likely see patchy fog redevelop overnight.
Also, cooler, drier air will not rush in with light pres gradient
in place, so temps will not fall back too far tonight. Expect lows
in the 50-55 degree range.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Highlights...

* Very warm Wed/Thu/Fri with highs well up into the 80s except
  cooler immediate coast at times
* Hot Saturday afternoon w/highs mainly upper 80s to the lower 90s
* A few showers/t-storms possible Thu night/Fri but best chance Sat
  afternoon/evening ahead of cold front
* Turning much cooler Sun and especially Mon along the coast


Details...

Wednesday...Closed upper level low lifts northeast of our region
allowing for rising heights/warmer mid level temps.  More
importantly, surface winds will turn to the west which makes a huge
difference in afternoon high temps this time of year.  Given 850T
between 13c/14c and plenty of late May sunshine, high temps should
be in the mid to upper 80s for most including Boston, as any sea
breezes that develop along the Eastern MA coast will be overcome by
increasing gradient by afternoon.  It will be a bit cooler on the
south coast/Cape/Islands, but still should see highs well into the
70s to near 80.

Dry weather will dominate Wednesday, but there is a low risk of a
spot shower/t-storm during the afternoon/early evening across the
interior.  Limiting factors though will be dry mid levels and lack
of low level forcing.

Wednesday night...Other than a low risk for a spot shower/t-storm
across the interior during the evening dry weather is expected
behind a weak cold front. Low temps will only fall back into the 50s
in most locations with 60 to 65 in some of the urban centers.  A
touch of patchy fog may develop in the typically prone locations
toward daybreak.

Thursday...Upper level ridging across the Southeast U.S. continues
to nose into southern New England.  This will result in plenty of
sunshine and with warm mid level temps, highs again should reach
well into the 80s in most locations.  However, gradient will be
weaker allowing for sea breezes to develop on the immediate Eastern
MA coast including Boston by early afternoon. High temps will still
likely reach well up into the 70s to near 80 in this region before
sea breezes develop and temps fall a bit. Should remain dry given
lack of forcing and upper level ridging nosing into this region.

Thursday night and Friday...A shortwave will lift northeast into
northern New England Thu night/Fri.  While the best forcing will to
our north, a few showers/t-storms are possible with the best chance
across western and northern MA.  Certainly not expecting a washout
though and the majority of the Thu night/Fri will be dry.
Still looks like a warm afternoon with temps into the 80s, but it
may be cooler across Northeast MA depending on location of backdoor
cold front.

Saturday...A hot day with westerly flow and 850T near 16c.  This
should yield highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s for most locations.
Dewpoints into the 60s will make it feel somewhat muggy.
Pre-frontal trough ahead of an approaching cold front may trigger
scattered showers/thunderstorms mainly Saturday afternoon and
evening.

Sunday and Monday...High pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will
build south into New England.  So despite rather high height fields,
northeast low level flow will result in much cooler temps Sun and
especially Mon particularly along the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through 12Z...Moderate confidence.

Mainly VFR across central and western areas, except locally MVFR
in any heavier showers and isolated TSRA. Across eastern MA/RI,
MVFR- IFR CIGS/local IFR VSBYS in locally +SHRA and isolated TSRA.
Areas of LIFR across SE MA, Cape Cod and the Islands in -SHRA and
fog.

Today...Moderate confidence.

General MVFR-IFR CIGS through midday, then slow improvement but
may linger through the afternoon along E coastal MA. Areas of
MVFR-IFR VSBY across central and eastern areas should improve by
midday. Isolated TSRA with locally heavy rainfall. Low risk of
small hail across CT valley during the midday and afternoon.
Light E-NE winds back to N-NW during the afternoon.

Tonight...Moderate confidence.

Isolated SHRA/TSRA lingers across central and N MA through this
evening, then ending. Patchy fog lingers along E coastal MA with
MVFR-IFR VSBYS, while fog redevelops away from the coast with
areas of MVFR VSBYS. Light/vrbl winds.

KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence. MVFR CIGS may become briefly IFR
through 13Z-14Z. VFR VSBYS may become locally MVFR in any showers
through mid morning. Low risk for TSRA through 14Z, then again
after 18Z today. CIGS improve to VFR by 22Z. Mainly VFR tonight.
Low chance of MVFR VSBYS in patchy fog after 05Z. Light NE winds
become Light/vrbl tonight.

KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR conditions. Local MVFR
in any showers through the day. Low risk of TSRA. Mainly VFR
tonight, though VSBYS may lower to MVFR in patchy fog after 05Z.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Wednesday and Thursday...High confidence. VFR conditions other
than a few hours of patchy ground fog possible toward daybreak Thu
in the typically prone locations.

Thursday night and Friday...Moderate confidence.  VFR conditions
likely dominate but some brief MVFR conditions possible in a few
showers/t-storms mainly across the interior.

Saturday...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR conditions but brief
MVFR- IFR conditions possible Saturday afternoon/evening in
scattered showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through 12Z...Moderate confidence.

Expect E-NE winds less than 15 kt and seas below 5 ft. Visibility
reductions in showers, widely scattered thunderstorms and patchy
fog. Today...Moderate Confidence.

E-NE winds less than 15 kt. Seas will build up to 5-6 ft across
the outer waters from Cape Cod southward, mainly in S-SE swells
this afternoon. Local visibility restrictions in scattered
showers, isolated thunderstorms and patchy fog. Winds will back
to N during the afternoon. Small crafts have been issued for
portions of the outer waters.

Tonight...Moderate Confidence.

N-NW winds as low pressure moves offshore, but remaining light.
E-SE swells will remain at 5-6 ft through around midnight, then
will slowly subside toward daybreak. Small crafts will continue
for portions of the outer waters. May see local visibility
restrictions in patchy fog. Low risk of isolated showers early.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...High Confidence.

Winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds
the majority of the period with the exception being Wednesday
night. Some brief near shore southwest wind gusts of 20 to 25
knots are likely Wed afternoon...which will result in some choppy
seas. In addition, long southwest fetch may bring a period of 5
foot seas across our southern waters Wednesday night which may
require headlines.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 1 PM this
     afternoon to 4 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ254-255.
     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 3 PM this
     afternoon to 1 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Frank/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...Frank
AVIATION...Frank/EVT
MARINE...Frank/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 240825
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
424 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

Scattered showers and few embedded thunderstorms this morning will
focus themselves primarily across Western MA and Northern CT by
afternoon.  An upper level ridge of high pressure will then bring
very warm to borderline hot weather to most of the region Wednesday
through Saturday, except for times of cooler temperatures on the
immediate coast. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible
Thursday night into Friday, but a better chance exists Saturday
afternoon and evening ahead of the cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1110 PM update...

Light showers rotating westward around cutoff H5 low pressure near
or just off the mid Atlc coast reaching the S coast of RI into N
central and NE CT at 03Z. Looks like most of the activity will
remain W of E MA and more of RI, but can not rule out widely sct
showers pretty much across the remainder of the region into the
early morning hours. Then, toward sunrise, will start to see sct
showers pretty much anywhere as weak short wave rotates westward
in the cyclonic upper flow to the south, as well as decreasing
temp/dewpoint spreads especially near the coast. With the onshore
wind, will see low clouds and patchy fog moving in. Would not be
surprised to see some spotty drizzle as well.

18Z GFS and new 00Z NAM both continue to signal increasing
instability, with total totals up to the lower 50s, surface based
LIs down to zero to -2 and K indices to the lower 30s around or
after 09Z. NAM appears too robust considering the lack of
convection into the region, so used a blend of the GFS/NAM with a
bit more weight to the GFS. Noting some CG and in cloud lightning
S of 40N late tonight, but appears this will rotate S of the
region for now. Have kept mention of thunder in the forecast
toward daybreak into Tuesday morning, though went with isolated
wording.

Remainder of forecast in pretty good shape, but have updated to
bring conditions current.

Previous discussion...

Low pressure wobbles N evolving into its dying phase undergoing
occlusion. During this morphology, focus is on the crux of mid-
level vortmax energy and parent weak low-level convergence
rounding W-NW round the low into S coastal New England. Should
see decent low to mid level forcing with some venting aloft, along
the leading edge of which a band of light to moderate rain should
emerge. Also isolated thunderstorms are possible given marginal
instability and weak shear parent to expected lift, but such
activity should be non severe with the main threats being
lightning and locally heavy rain.

A consensus of high-res and mos-guidance performed, confidence is
for a band of activity to pivot NW across S New England settling N
to S across W New England and along the high terrain. This keeps a
good chunk of E/SE MA in chance PoPs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
Tuesday...

Breaking down. Low chokes itself off entraining drier air as it
stacks and undergoes occlusion within its dying phase. The trowaling
and comma shape to the low persists albeit weaker seemingly over W
portions of New England parent with low level convergent flow along
the E slopes of high terrain and forcing per rotating mid-level
vortex energy. But to the E we could see some improvement with
clouds becoming broken and perhaps some hints of sunshine. Thus can
not rule out partial clearing.

PoPs evolving with highest confidence over the Berkshires while
chance-scattered to the E/SE if forecast models are right in the
evolution of drier air wrapping into the system. A lot of wiggle
room and wobble with this system to which the high-res guidance is
not absolutely succinct but has a decent handle on the trend. Will
avoid high PoPs accordingly with the scattered to broken nature of
the low. Thunder does remain a possibility with continued marginal
instability and weak shear. Think isolated chances and will prevail
accordingly.

Cooler day with clouds in abundance and E/NE flow. Highs up into the
60s. An edge warmer to the W as conditions improve late in the day
with winds shifting out of the W/NW.

Tuesday Night...

The end. Low continues to undergo its dying phase choking upon drier
air as it peels off to the E. Comma head over the W sweeps E across
S New England per a consensus of high-res forecast trends, but by
this point the activity is all but scattered. Should see most of the
wet weather by consensus conclude by midnight behind which W/NW flow
prevails. Anticipated clearing and light winds, would expect lows to
drop into the 40s, and considering the recent rains, can not rule
out some dense fog development if conditions are right.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Highlights...

* Very warm Wed/Thu/Fri with highs well up into the 80s except
  cooler immediate coast at times
* Hot Saturday afternoon w/highs mainly upper 80s to the lower 90s
* A few showers/t-storms possible Thu night/Fri but best chance Sat
  afternoon/evening ahead of cold front
* Turning much cooler Sun and especially Mon along the coast


Details...

Wednesday...Closed upper level low lifts northeast of our region
allowing for rising heights/warmer mid level temps.  More
importantly, surface winds will turn to the west which makes a huge
difference in afternoon high temps this time of year.  Given 850T
between 13c/14c and plenty of late May sunshine, high temps should
be in the mid to upper 80s for most including Boston, as any sea
breezes that develop along the Eastern MA coast will be overcome by
increasing gradient by afternoon.  It will be a bit cooler on the
south coast/Cape/Islands, but still should see highs well into the
70s to near 80.

Dry weather will dominate Wednesday, but there is a low risk of a
spot shower/t-storm during the afternoon/early evening across the
interior.  Limiting factors though will be dry mid levels and lack
of low level forcing.

Wednesday night...Other than a low risk for a spot shower/t-storm
across the interior during the evening dry weather is expected
behind a weak cold front. Low temps will only fall back into the 50s
in most locations with 60 to 65 in some of the urban centers.  A
touch of patchy fog may develop in the typically prone locations
toward daybreak.

Thursday...Upper level ridging across the Southeast U.S. continues
to nose into southern New England.  This will result in plenty of
sunshine and with warm mid level temps, highs again should reach
well into the 80s in most locations.  However, gradient will be
weaker allowing for sea breezes to develop on the immediate Eastern
MA coast including Boston by early afternoon. High temps will still
likely reach well up into the 70s to near 80 in this region before
sea breezes develop and temps fall a bit. Should remain dry given
lack of forcing and upper level ridging nosing into this region.

Thursday night and Friday...A shortwave will lift northeast into
northern New England Thu night/Fri.  While the best forcing will to
our north, a few showers/t-storms are possible with the best chance
across western and northern MA.  Certainly not expecting a washout
though and the majority of the Thu night/Fri will be dry.
Still looks like a warm afternoon with temps into the 80s, but it
may be cooler across Northeast MA depending on location of backdoor
cold front.

Saturday...A hot day with westerly flow and 850T near 16c.  This
should yield highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s for most locations.
Dewpoints into the 60s will make it feel somewhat muggy.
Pre-frontal trough ahead of an approaching cold front may trigger
scattered showers/thunderstorms mainly Saturday afternoon and
evening.

Sunday and Monday...High pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will
build south into New England.  So despite rather high height fields,
northeast low level flow will result in much cooler temps Sun and
especially Mon particularly along the coast.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tonight/...

Overnight...Moderate Confidence.

Mainly VFR through 04Z-06Z, except LIFR CIGS/MVFR-IFR VSBYS
moving onshore from Cape Cod to along E coastal Mass. Should see
MVFR- IFR CIGS/MVFR VSBYS move W to about KORH-KIJD with spotty
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS across the CT valley mainly after 06Z. Scattered
showers with MVFR conditions across N CT/W RI into CT valley.
Isolated thunder possible after 08Z mainly near S coast. Light
E-NE winds.

Tuesday...Moderate Confidence.

SHRA and chance TSRA continue with greatest confidence over W
terminals. Widespread MVFR/IFR impacts begin to shift E with the
usherance of winds backing out of the W/NW. Gusts of around 15 kts
possible.

Tuesday Night...Moderate confidence.

Continued clearing trend W to E with W/NW winds. Improving to VFR.
It is perhaps at the start of the period that MVFR/IFR will only
linger along the E coast of MA.

KBOS TAF...Sct showers will move across the terminal tonight and
into tomorrow. Low prob for some thunder. VFR will drop to
MVFR/IFR after 06z.

KBDL TAF...Confident the terminal will see a fair share of -RA
beginning around midnight and continuing through much of Tuesday
before clearing out late. Moderate prob for TSRA. MVFR conditions
after 06z.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Wednesday and Thursday...High confidence.  VFR conditions other than
a few hours of patchy ground fog possible toward daybreak Thu in the
typically prone locations.

Thursday night and Friday...Moderate confidence.  VFR conditions
likely dominate but some brief MVFR conditions possible in a few
showers/t-storms mainly across the interior.

Saturday...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR conditions but brief MVFR-
IFR conditions possible Saturday afternoon/evening in scattered
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Overnight and Tuesday...Moderate Confidence.

E-NE winds with gusts up to 15 kt mainly overnight, then
diminishing Tuesday. Seas 4 feet or less. Visibility reductions
in areas of fog moving W from Mass Bay and E of Cape Cod overnight,
local mist as well. Scattered showers along the S coast of RI,
then continue to develop across entire S coast, possibly reaching
to E coastal areas by daybreak. Isolated thunderstorms after 08Z
through mid morning Tuesday possible.

Tuesday Night...Moderate Confidence.

Winds back out of the W/NW with departure of the low. Change in
wind direction against a E/SE swell, could see some wave heights
up to 5 feet on the outer waters requiring small craft advisories.
Aside, rain comes to an end and visibilities improve if they had
not done so during the day Tuesday.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...High Confidence.

Winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds the
majority of the period with the exception being Wednesday night.
Some brief near shore southwest wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots are
likely Wed afternoon...which will result in some choppy seas. In
addition, long southwest fetch may bring a period of 5 foot seas
across our southern waters Wednesday night which may require
headlines.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 1 PM this
     afternoon to 4 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ254-255.
     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 3 PM this
     afternoon to 1 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Frank
NEAR TERM...Dunten/EVT
SHORT TERM...Sipprell
LONG TERM...Frank
AVIATION...Frank/Sipprell/EVT
MARINE...Frank/Sipprell/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 240353
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
1153 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure will wobble north along the coast into
this evening and through Tuesday bringing with it showers and the
chance of thunderstorms. Warmer weather follows beginning Wednesday.
A weak front will move south of the region Wednesday night with
dry, warm weather for Thursday. The front will move north toward
southern New England as a warm front on Friday bringing scattered
showers and thunderstorms. The front will continue to drift slowly
north over the Memorial Day weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

1110 PM update...

Light showers rotating westward around cutoff H5 low pressure near
or just off the mid Atlc coast reaching the S coast of RI into N
central and NE CT at 03Z. Looks like most of the activity will
remain W of E MA and more of RI, but can not rule out widely sct
showers pretty much across the remainder of the region into the
early morning hours. Then, toward sunrise, will start to see sct
showers pretty much anywhere as weak short wave rotates westward
in the cyclonic upper flow to the south, as well as decreasing
temp/dewpoint spreads especially near the coast. With the onshore
wind, will see low clouds and patchy fog moving in. Would not be
surprised to see some spotty drizzle as well.

18Z GFS and new 00Z NAM both continue to signal increasing
instability, with total totals up to the lower 50s, surface based
LIs down to zero to -2 and K indices to the lower 30s around or
after 09Z. NAM appears too robust considering the lack of
convection into the region, so used a blend of the GFS/NAM with a
bit more weight to the GFS. Noting some CG and in cloud lightning
S of 40N late tonight, but appears this will rotate S of the
region for now. Have kept mention of thunder in the forecast
toward daybreak into Tuesday morning, though went with isolated
wording.

Remainder of forecast in pretty good shape, but have updated to
bring conditions current.

Previous discussion...

Low pressure wobbles N evolving into its dying phase undergoing
occlusion. During this morphology, focus is on the crux of mid-
level vortmax energy and parent weak low-level convergence
rounding W-NW round the low into S coastal New England. Should
see decent low to mid level forcing with some venting aloft, along
the leading edge of which a band of light to moderate rain should
emerge. Also isolated thunderstorms are possible given marginal
instability and weak shear parent to expected lift, but such
activity should be non severe with the main threats being
lightning and locally heavy rain.

A consensus of high-res and mos-guidance performed, confidence is
for a band of activity to pivot NW across S New England settling N
to S across W New England and along the high terrain. This keeps a
good chunk of E/SE MA in chance PoPs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

Tuesday...

Breaking down. Low chokes itself off entraining drier air as it
stacks and undergoes occlusion within its dying phase. The trowaling
and comma shape to the low persists albeit weaker seemingly over W
portions of New England parent with low level convergent flow along
the E slopes of high terrain and forcing per rotating mid-level
vortex energy. But to the E we could see some improvement with
clouds becoming broken and perhaps some hints of sunshine. Thus can
not rule out partial clearing.

PoPs evolving with highest confidence over the Berkshires while
chance-scattered to the E/SE if forecast models are right in the
evolution of drier air wrapping into the system. A lot of wiggle
room and wobble with this system to which the high-res guidance is
not absolutely succinct but has a decent handle on the trend. Will
avoid high PoPs accordingly with the scattered to broken nature of
the low. Thunder does remain a possibility with continued marginal
instability and weak shear. Think isolated chances and will prevail
accordingly.

Cooler day with clouds in abundance and E/NE flow. Highs up into the
60s. An edge warmer to the W as conditions improve late in the day
with winds shifting out of the W/NW.

Tuesday Night...

The end. Low continues to undergo its dying phase choking upon drier
air as it peels off to the E. Comma head over the W sweeps E across
S New England per a consensus of high-res forecast trends, but by
this point the activity is all but scattered. Should see most of the
wet weather by consensus conclude by midnight behind which W/NW flow
prevails. Anticipated clearing and light winds, would expect lows to
drop into the 40s, and considering the recent rains, can not rule
out some dense fog development if conditions are right.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* Significantly warmer and dry Wednesday and Thursday
* Above average temperatures will continue Friday into Sat
* Hit or miss showers with thunderstorms are possible into the
  Holiday weekend.

OVERVIEW...

Large scale pattern is in agreement with both determinisic and
ensemble guidance. Upper level low will move towards the Maritimes
as Midwest ridge builds into the Northeast. This ridge will bring
summer-like warmth and humidity to the region as ensembles show both
the 700 and 500 heights nearly 1-2 standard deviations above normal.
Several waves will move through the flow keeping a chance of showers
and thunderstorms in the forecast for Late Thursday into Saturday.
Because of the mesoscale differences in the guidance trended the
forecast towards an overall blend.

DAILIES...

Wednesday into Thursday...Moderate Confidence.

Upper level low will push towards the Maritimes on Wednesday.
However, a quick moving shortwave will try to push through the
region during the day. This approaching frontal system will slow
down or stall as mid-level heights begin to build across the region.
Therefor, believe that an isolated shower across the higher terrain
is possible but most of the day appears to be dry. Good mixing
during the afternoon will help warm temperatures back to above
average with highs in the low to mid 80s. This may be the first
time that Boston Logan will hit 80F.

The cold front weakens and stalls over the region by Thursday as
ridging aloft continues. There is the potential for a spot
thunderstorm especially across the CT valley and points west where
the better instability will occur. So another mainly dry day is
anticipated on Thursday. Temperatures will be similar to that on
Wednesday with mixing up to 800mb. Will be cooler along the
coastlines as a sea breeze looks to develop during the afternoon.

Thursday night into Friday...Moderate Confidence.

Depending on where the front stalls, we could see scattered showers
and thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday. Guidance continues to
hint at the possibility of a decaying MCS moving from the Great
Lakes region towards southern New England. However latest trends is
that this will pass closer to NH than directly over southern New
England. Something to watch in the coming days.

Friday, it still remains unclear how far northward the front will
make it. If it stalls/remains over the region then showers and
thunderstorms may continue, keeping more clouds than sun which will
lower temperatures. Right now believe that the front will get
through a good portion of the area allowing for temps to reach into
the 80s with mid to upper 70s across the east coast.

Memorial Weekend...Moderate Confidence on Saturday. Low Confidence
on Sunday.

High pressure south of the region will begin to strengthen on
Saturday. This will continue to build the ridge to 2-3 standard
deviations above normal. Saturday looks quite balmy with 925 mb
temps warming close to 21-23C. This could result in highs in the mid
80s on Saturday, with a low probability of a 90F across the CT
valley. For now continue with a conservative route for temperatures.
These warm temperatures and lingering moisture may trigger off
afternoon convection on Saturday.

Low confidence on Sunday as EC wants to push a backdoor cold front
through the region where the GFS brings the front through on Monday.
Depending on the frontal timing, temperatures on Sunday could be in
the mid 80s with sun or the upper 60s with clouds and drizzle. Will
have to wait for the guidance to come in better agreement before
having a better idea on how the weekend will end for southern New
England.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday Night/...

Overnight...Moderate Confidence.

Mainly VFR through 04Z-06Z, except LIFR CIGS/MVFR-IFR VSBYS
moving onshore from Cape Cod to along E coastal Mass. Should see
MVFR- IFR CIGS/MVFR VSBYS move W to about KORH-KIJD with spotty
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS across the CT valley mainly after 06Z. Scattered
showers with MVFR conditions across N CT/W RI into CT valley.
Isolated thunder possible after 08Z mainly near S coast. Light
E-NE winds.

Tuesday...Moderate Confidence.

SHRA and chance TSRA continue with greatest confidence over W
terminals. Widespread MVFR/IFR impacts begin to shift E with the
usherance of winds backing out of the W/NW. Gusts of around 15 kts
possible.

Tuesday Night...Moderate confidence.

Continued clearing trend W to E with W/NW winds. Improving to VFR.
It is perhaps at the start of the period that MVFR/IFR will only
linger along the E coast of MA.

KBOS TAF...Sct showers will move across the terminal tonight and
into tomorrow. Low prob for some thunder. VFR will drop to
MVFR/IFR after 06z.

KBDL TAF...Confident the terminal will see a fair share of -RA
beginning around midnight and continuing through much of Tuesday
before clearing out late. Moderate prob for TSRA. MVFR conditions
after 06z.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Wednesday through Thursday...High Confidence. VFR.

Thursday night and Friday... Low to Moderate Confidence. Mainly
VFR...becoming MVFR. Showers and thunderstorms beginning late
Thursday night lasting through Friday.

Saturday...Moderate Confidence. Mainly VFR with some MVFR within
in scattered shower or thunderstorm.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Overnight and Tuesday...Moderate Confidence.

E-NE winds with gusts up to 15 kt mainly overnight, then
diminishing Tuesday. Seas 4 feet or less. Visibility reductions
in areas of fog moving W from Mass Bay and E of Cape Cod overnight,
local mist as well. Scattered showers along the S coast of RI,
then continue to develop across entire S coast, possibly reaching
to E coastal areas by daybreak. Isolated thunderstorms after 08Z
through mid morning Tuesday possible.

Tuesday Night...Moderate Confidence.

Winds back out of the W/NW with departure of the low. Change in
wind direction against a E/SE swell, could see some wave heights
up to 5 feet on the outer waters requiring small craft advisories.
Aside, rain comes to an end and visibilities improve if they had
not done so during the day Tuesday.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...Moderate confidence.

Wednesday...Seas subside into Wednesday afternoon. Light winds.

Wednesday night and Thursday...Light winds from the southwest
will shift to the northeast by Thu as a frontal system stalls
over the waters. Seas mainly below small craft criteria but cannot
rule out a few hours of 5 footers across the southeastern waters.

Thursday night and Friday...Southeast winds on the order of 10-15
kt and seas 1 to 3 feet. Just a slight chance of showers or a
thunderstorm.

Saturday...Southwest winds will prevail with seas less than 3
feet.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Dunten/Sipprell
NEAR TERM...Dunten/EVT
SHORT TERM...Sipprell
LONG TERM...Dunten
AVIATION...Dunten/Sipprell/EVT
MARINE...Dunten/Sipprell/EVT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 232305
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
705 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure will wobble north along the coast into
this evening and through Tuesday bringing with it showers and the
chance of thunderstorms. Warmer weather follows beginning Wednesday.
A weak front will move south of the region Wednesday night with
dry, warm weather for Thursday. The front will move north toward
southern New England as a warm front on Friday bringing scattered
showers and thunderstorms. The front will continue to drift slowly
north over the Memorial Day weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

700 pm update...

Minor changes to the forecast to account for current trends.
Easterly flow combined with approaching shortwave has already
triggered some light showers/drizzle across the Mass eastern
coastline, especially the Cape and North Shore. Although the
radar shows these showers making it to Worcester
County...temp/dewpoint depression is a bit large. Therefore
anticipate sprinkles in locations west of the I-495 belt. Updated
the precipitation forecast with latest hi-res and 18z guidance.
Otherwise bulk of the forecast remains on track.

Tonight...

Unsettled, wet weather expected though variance within near-term
high-res forecast guidance leaves a lot to be desired with respect
to specifics. Taking a broader view, low pressure wobbles N evolving
into its dying phase undergoing occlusion. Airstreams cyclonically
trowal into the low center yielding a comma-head structure. During
this morphology focus is on the crux of mid-level vortmax energy and
parent weak low-level convergence rounding NW round the low into S
New England. Should see decent low to mid level forcing, with some
venting aloft, along the leading edge of which a band of light to
moderate rain should emerge. Also possible embedded thunderstorms
given marginal instability and weak shear parent to expected lift,
but such activity should be non-severe with the main threats being
lightning and heavy rain.

So taken altogether likely PoPs would be warranted, but it`s unclear
as to when and where specifically. A consensus of high-res and mos-
guidance performed, confidence is for a band of activity to pivot NW
across S New England settling N to S across W New England and along
the high terrain. This keeps a good chunk of E/SE MA in chance PoPs.

A moderate confidence forecast with mild conditions as low range
around the mid 50s. Likely a mixed-bag of conditions consisting of
mist and fog resulting in subsequent reductions in visibility.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Tuesday...

Breaking down. Low chokes itself off entraining drier air as it
stacks and undergoes occlusion within its dying phase. The trowaling
and comma shape to the low persists albeit weaker seemingly over W
portions of New England parent with low level convergent flow along
the E slopes of high terrain and forcing per rotating mid-level
vortex energy. But to the E we could see some improvement with
clouds becoming broken and perhaps some hints of sunshine. Thus can
not rule out partial clearing.

PoPs evolving with highest confidence over the Berkshires while
chance-scattered to the E/SE if forecast models are right in the
evolution of drier air wrapping into the system. A lot of wiggle
room and wobble with this system to which the high-res guidance is
not absolutely succinct but has a decent handle on the trend. Will
avoid high PoPs accordingly with the scattered to broken nature of
the low. Thunder does remain a possibility with continued marginal
instability and weak shear. Think isolated chances and will prevail
accordingly.

Cooler day with clouds in abundance and E/NE flow. Highs up into the
60s. An edge warmer to the W as conditions improve late in the day
with winds shifting out of the W/NW.

Tuesday Night...

The end. Low continues to undergo its dying phase choking upon drier
air as it peels off to the E. Comma head over the W sweeps E across
S New England per a consensus of high-res forecast trends, but by
this point the activity is all but scattered. Should see most of the
wet weather by consensus conclude by midnight behind which W/NW flow
prevails. Anticipated clearing and light winds, would expect lows to
drop into the 40s, and considering the recent rains, can not rule
out some dense fog development if conditions are right.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* Significantly warmer and dry Wednesday and Thursday
* Above average temperatures will continue Friday into Sat
* Hit or miss showers with thunderstorms are possible into the
  Holiday weekend.

OVERVIEW...

Large scale pattern is in agreement with both determinisic and
ensemble guidance. Upper level low will move towards the Maritimes
as Midwest ridge builds into the Northeast. This ridge will bring
summer-like warmth and humidity to the region as ensembles show both
the 700 and 500 heights nearly 1-2 standard deviations above normal.
Several waves will move through the flow keeping a chance of showers
and thunderstorms in the forecast for Late Thursday into Saturday.
Because of the mesoscale differences in the guidance trended the
forecast towards an overall blend.

DAILIES...

Wednesday into Thursday...Moderate Confidence.

Upper level low will push towards the Maritimes on Wednesday.
However, a quick moving shortwave will try to push through the
region during the day. This approaching frontal system will slow
down or stall as mid-level heights begin to build across the region.
Therefor, believe that an isolated shower across the higher terrain
is possible but most of the day appears to be dry. Good mixing
during the afternoon will help warm temperatures back to above
average with highs in the low to mid 80s. This may be the first
time that Boston Logan will hit 80F.

The cold front weakens and stalls over the region by Thursday as
ridging aloft continues. There is the potential for a spot
thunderstorm especially across the CT valley and points west where
the better instability will occur. So another mainly dry day is
anticipated on Thursday. Temperatures will be similar to that on
Wednesday with mixing up to 800mb. Will be cooler along the
coastlines as a sea breeze looks to develop during the afternoon.

Thursday night into Friday...Moderate Confidence.

Depending on where the front stalls, we could see scattered showers
and thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday. Guidance continues to
hint at the possibility of a decaying MCS moving from the Great
Lakes region towards southern New England. However latest trends is
that this will pass closer to NH than directly over southern New
England. Something to watch in the coming days.

Friday, it still remains unclear how far northward the front will
make it. If it stalls/remains over the region then showers and
thunderstorms may continue, keeping more clouds than sun which will
lower temperatures. Right now believe that the front will get
through a good portion of the area allowing for temps to reach into
the 80s with mid to upper 70s across the east coast.

Memorial Weekend...Moderate Confidence on Saturday. Low Confidence
on Sunday.

High pressure south of the region will begin to strengthen on
Saturday. This will continue to build the ridge to 2-3 standard
deviations above normal. Saturday looks quite balmy with 925 mb
temps warming close to 21-23C. This could result in highs in the mid
80s on Saturday, with a low probability of a 90F across the CT
valley. For now continue with a conservative route for temperatures.
These warm temperatures and lingering moisture may trigger off
afternoon convection on Saturday.

Low confidence on Sunday as EC wants to push a backdoor cold front
through the region where the GFS brings the front through on Monday.
Depending on the frontal timing, temperatures on Sunday could be in
the mid 80s with sun or the upper 60s with clouds and drizzle. Will
have to wait for the guidance to come in better agreement before
having a better idea on how the weekend will end for southern New
England.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday Night/...

Tonight...Moderate Confidence.

Specificity difficult to nail down. Will prevail VCSH with uncertainty
while -RA with confidence. Anticipate scattered SHRA with chance TSRA
with greater confidence of impact over W terminals. With respect to
cigs and vsbys, confident widespread MVFR/IFR impacts with fog and
mist especially over E/SE terminals. NE winds with gusts upward of
15 kts.

Tuesday...Moderate Confidence.

SHRA and chance TSRA continue with greatest confidence over W terminals.
Widespread MVFR/IFR impacts begin to shift E with the usherance of
winds backing out of the W/NW. Gusts of around 15 kts possible.

Tuesday Night...Moderate confidence.

Continued clearing trend W to E with W/NW winds. Improving to VFR.
It is perhaps at the start of the period that MVFR/IFR will only
linger along the E coast of MA.

KBOS TAF...Sct showers will move across the terminal tonight and
into tomorrow. Low prob for some thunder. VFR will drop to
MVFR/IFR after 06z.

KBDL TAF...Confident the terminal will see a fair share of -RA
beginning around midnight and continuing through much of Tuesday
before clearing out late. Moderate prob for TSRA. MVFR conditions
after 06z.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Wednesday through Thursday...High Confidence. VFR.

Thursday night and Friday... Low to Moderate Confidence. Mainly
VFR...becoming MVFR. Showers and thunderstorms beginning late
Thursday night lasting through Friday.

Saturday...Moderate Confidence. Mainly VFR with some MVFR within
in scattered shower or thunderstorm.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

315 pm update...

Tonight and Tuesday...Moderate Confidence.

Low pressure wobbles around S New England. E/NE winds with gusts
up to 15 kts. Seas dropping below 5 feet early. Main concern is
with anticipated wet weather that there will be reductions to
visibility out on the waters. Can not rule out visibilities
falling as low a a few miles with mist / fog.

Tuesday Night...Moderate Confidence.

Winds back out of the W/NW with departure of the low. Change in
wind direction against a E/SE swell, could see some wave heights
up to 5 feet on the outer waters requiring small craft advisories.
Aside, rain comes to an end and visibilities improve if they had
not done so during the day Tuesday.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...Moderate confidence.

Wednesday...Seas subside into Wednesday afternoon. Light winds.

Wednesday night and Thursday...Light winds from the southwest
will shift to the northeast by Thu as a frontal system stalls
over the waters. Seas mainly below small craft criteria but cannot
rule out a few hours of 5 footers across the southeastern waters.

Thursday night and Friday...Southeast winds on the order of 10-15
kt and seas 1 to 3 feet. Just a slight chance of showers or a
thunderstorm.

Saturday...Southwest winds will prevail with seas less than 3
feet.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 8 PM EDT this
     evening for ANZ250-254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Dunten/Sipprell
NEAR TERM...Dunten/Sipprell
SHORT TERM...Sipprell
LONG TERM...Dunten
AVIATION...Dunten/Sipprell
MARINE...Dunten/Sipprell




000
FXUS61 KBOX 231112
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
712 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
We are in between weather systems today, with fair dry weather
during much of the daylight hours. Low pressure moves up the
coast this evening through Tuesday bringing showers and
thunderstorms. A significant warmup will occur Wednesday.
A weak front will move south of the region Wednesday night
with dry, warm weather for Thursday. The front will move north
toward southern New England as a warm front on Friday bringing
scattered showers and thunderstorms. The front will continue to
drift slowly north over the Memorial Day weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
715 AM UPDATE...

Some mid level cloudiness was affecting southeastern Massachusetts
early this morning. Otherwise, skies were clear and isolated fog
patches had already dissipated. No changes to temperatures,
dewpoints, or winds.

Previous discussion...

Closed upper low is in place along the Northeast and Mid Atlantic
coasts, although the most significant instability remains from PA
to North Carolina through the day before moving into Southern New
England this evening.

Heating by the sun will create sufficient mixing to reach near 800
mb, where temps will support max surface values in the mid to
upper 70s. A light northeast surface wind will keep temperatures
near the Mass East Coast in the upper 50s and 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Tonight...

Instability moving up from Eastern PA may reach western CT this
evening and bring a few showers. The more significant feature will
be low pressure surface and aloft that will move north toward New
England. This feature will bring colder temps aloft over our area,
supporting greater instability. Upper jet moving around the low
will be just east of MA with the lift-supporting left exit region
over RI and eastern MA. For both reasons, expect showers moving up
from the south tonight with sufficient instability for a couple of
thunderstorms too. Will use likely POPs, but on the lower side of
this range.

Clouds and the northeast flow off the water point to min sfc temps
near the dew point, in the lower 50s.

Tuesday...

Core of the upper low moves over RI and Eastern MA. Similarity
among the models gives some confidence to this positioning. Core
of the cold pool aloft also moves over our area, so instability
will linger through the day. Concern remains for the chance of a
couple of thunderstorms due to the unstable airmass. We will
mention slight chance of thunder. POPs will be at high-end chance
or low-end likely much of the day.

Tuesday will be much cloudier than today so more limited mixing,
probably to 925 mb or 900 mb. Temps at these levels would support
max surface temps in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Highlights...

 * Significantly warmer Wednesday and Thursday
 * Cooler on Friday with Scattered showers and thunderstorms
 * Warm for Memorial Day weekend with a few showers/thunderstorms

Overview and Model Preferences...

At upper levels...a persistent upper low moves northeast over the
Canadian Maritimes by late Wednesday afternoon. A strong upper
level ridge of high pressure will develop from the mid-Atlantic
coast to New England late in the week and next weekend.

At the surface...a weak front will slip south of the region Wed
night bringing a wind shift to the north and drier air for Thu.
That front will strengthen and move northward as a warm front by
Fri...bringing increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms and
cooler weather. The front will slowly edge northward next weekend
allowing summerlike temperatures to return for the Memorial Day
weekend but with a few showers and thunderstorms possible each day.

Tuesday night... As the upper low finally moves northeast away
from the region, any lingering light showers will end in the
evening and skies will clear out after midnight. Lows mainly
50-55.

Wednesday...

Brief ridge of high pressure to our south takes over, leading to
westerly downslope air flow, drier conditions, and more summer-
like temperatures away from the coast...mainly 80 to 85.There
could be seabreezes, but it appears the synoptic flow could be
just strong enough to prevent lower temperatures along parts of
the MA east coast. Cape Cod and the islands, as well as Cape Ann,
however, will likely remain as cool as the south coast of New
England, where southwest winds should prevail...upper 60s to mid
70s there.

Wednesday night and Thursday... Weak low pressure passes by to our
northeast Wed evening and an associated weak front will move
across our region. The front will usher in very dry air aloft
and light west winds will turn northerly. With a good deal of
sunshine on Thu, high temperatures will again reach the 80 to 85
degree mark over the interior. But there will be a better chance
of sea breezes along the entire east and southeast coastline, with
temperatures only reaching mid 60s to mid 70s at the immediate
coast.

Thursday night and Friday... The front that moved through Wed night
will strengthen to our south and begin to head northward Thu night.
Winds will turn to the east and southeast, bringing an increase in
moisture and a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms later
Thu night. Friday now looks like a much cooler day than earlier
anticipated, with a warm front in our vicinity and a continuation
of E to SE flow. It will be on the cloudy side with a chance of
showers and thunderstorms, especially in western sections. Highs
only in the 70s...cooler at the immediate coast.

Saturday and Sunday... This far out...there is still a fair amount
of uncertainty. However, it looks like the warm front will drift
slowly northward on Saturday and be completely north of the region
on Sunday. The Memorial Day weekend should feature a return of
summer-like temperatures with highs in the mid 80s. Upper 80s are
possible in the Connecticut River valley on Sunday. There is a
possibility of scattered diurnally-driven afternoon and evening
showers or thunderstorms, but most of the time it should be dry.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday/...

Today...Moderate-High Confidence.

VFR most of the day. Showers may develop late in the day in CT,
and toward evening along the South Coast. This could bring local
MVFR vsbys at that time.

Tonight...Moderate Confidence.

Showers and widely scattered thunderstorms move across Southern
New England. This will bring a few periods of MVFR cigs and vsbys.
Also MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys in fog especially in RI and SE Mass.

Tuesday...Moderate Confidence.

Showers and widely scattered thunder will continue. Areas of
MVFR/IFR in showers and fog areas. Conditions may improve to
mainly VFR especially in CT and Western MA late in the day.

KBOS TAF...Greatest uncertainty is in timing of showers for this
evening and tonight. Because of this any mention of showers has
been tagged as vicinity rather than directly mentioned.

KBDL TAF...Greatest uncertainty is in timing of showers for this
evening and tonight. A couple of showers could reach the airport
between 5 PM and 8 PM, but more likely to occur after 8 PM.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday night... Moderate confidence. Any lingering MVFR
improving to VFR after midnight. Could be isolated IFR in patchy
fog late.

Wednesday through Thursday...High Confidence. VFR.

Thursday night and Friday... Low to Moderate Confidence. Mainly
VFR early Thu night...becoming MVFR with areas of IFR in showers
and possible fog patches. Isolated thunderstorms late Thu night.
Mainly MVFR throughout the region on Fri with scattered showers
and thunderstorms. Isolated IFR possible in heavier showers or in
patchy fog mainly near the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today...Moderate Confidence.

Low pressure moves up the coast from Virginia and the Carolinas.
Most of the day will be fair with North winds turning from the
Northeast. Speeds will be 15 knots or less. Lingering 5 to 7 foot
seas will slowly subside through the day. Small craft advisory
for hazardous seas is in effect, mostly for the outer waters,
through the day.

Tonight and Tuesday...Moderate Confidence.

Coastal low pressure moves across the waters. This will bring
showers and widely scattered thunder with lower visibility in
showers and fog. Winds will remain 15 knots or less, and seas will
mostly be less than 5 feet. A few 5 foot readings could show up on
the southern outer waters Tuesday.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday night into early Wednesday... Moderate Confidence.

A small craft advisory may be needed for seas of 5 to 6 feet over
the southeastern outer waters Tue night...subsiding to below 5
feet by Wed afternoon. Otherwise...light southwesterly winds.

Wednesday night and Thursday... Moderate confidence.

Light winds from the southwest will shift to the northwest Wed
night and to the northeast to east on Thu. Seas mainly well below
small craft criteria...but could reach 5 feet over the waters
southeast of Nantucket late Thu afternoon.

Thursday night and Friday... Moderate confidence.

Southeast winds on the order of 10-15 kt and seas 1 to 3 feet.
Just a slight chance of showers or a thunderstorm.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 11 PM EDT this
     evening for ANZ250-254-255.
     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until noon EDT today
     for ANZ251.
     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 8 AM EDT this
     morning for ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/GAF
NEAR TERM...WTB/GAF
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...GAF
AVIATION...WTB/GAF
MARINE...WTB/GAF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 230823
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
423 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
We are in between weather systems today, with fair dry weather
during much of the daylight hours. Low pressure moves up the
coast this evening through Tuesday bringing showers and
thunderstorms. A significant warmup will occur Wednesday.
A weak front will move south of the region Wednesday night
with dry, warm weather for Thursday. The front will move north
toward southern New England as a warm front on Friday bringing
scattered showers and thunderstorms. The front will continue to
drift slowly north over the Memorial Day weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Closed upper low is in place along the Northeast and Mid Atlantic
coasts, although the most significant instability remains from PA
to North Carolina through the day before moving into Southern New
England this evening.

Heating by the sun will create sufficient mixing to reach near 800
mb, where temps will support max surface values in the mid to
upper 70s. A light northeast surface wind will keep temperatures
near the Mass East Coast in the upper 50s and 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Tonight...

Instability moving up from Eastern PA may reach western CT this
evening and bring a few showers. The more significant feature will
be low pressure surface and aloft that will move north toward New
England. This feature will bring colder temps aloft over our area,
supporting greater instability. Upper jet moving around the low
will be just east of MA with the lift-supporting left exit region
over RI and eastern MA. For both reasons, expect showers moving up
from the south tonight with sufficient instability for a couple of
thunderstorms too. Will use likely POPs, but on the lower side of
this range.

Clouds and the northeast flow off the water point to min sfc temps
near the dew point, in the lower 50s.

Tuesday...

Core of the upper low moves over RI and Eastern MA. Similarity
among the models gives some confidence to this positioning. Core
of the cold pool aloft also moves over our area, so instability
will linger through the day. Concern remains for the chance of a
couple of thunderstorms due to the unstable airmass. We will
mention slight chance of thunder. POPs will be at high-end chance
or low-end likely much of the day.

Tuesday will be much cloudier than today so more limited mixing,
probably to 925 mb or 900 mb. Temps at these levels would support
max surface temps in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Highlights...

 * Significantly warmer Wednesday and Thursday
 * Cooler on Friday with Scattered showers and thunderstorms
 * Warm for Memorial Day weekend with a few showers/thunderstorms

Overview and Model Preferences...

At upper levels...a persistent upper low moves northeast over the
Canadian Maritimes by late Wednesday afternoon. A strong upper
level ridge of high pressure will develop from the mid-Atlantic
coast to New England late in the week and next weekend.

At the surface...a weak front will slip south of the region Wed
night bringing a wind shift to the north and drier air for Thu.
That front will strengthen and move northward as a warm front by
Fri...bringing increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms and
cooler weather. The front will slowly edge northward next weekend
allowing summerlike temperatures to return for the Memorial Day
weekend but with a few showers and thunderstorms possible each day.

Tuesday night... As the upper low finally moves northeast away
from the region, any lingering light showers will end in the
evening and skies will clear out after midnight. Lows mainly
50-55.

Wednesday...

Brief ridge of high pressure to our south takes over, leading to
westerly downslope air flow, drier conditions, and more summer-
like temperatures away from the coast...mainly 80 to 85.There
could be seabreezes, but it appears the synoptic flow could be
just strong enough to prevent lower temperatures along parts of
the MA east coast. Cape Cod and the islands, as well as Cape Ann,
however, will likely remain as cool as the south coast of New
England, where southwest winds should prevail...upper 60s to mid
70s there.

Wednesday night and Thursday... Weak low pressure passes by to our
northeast Wed evening and an associated weak front will move
across our region. The front will usher in very dry air aloft
and light west winds will turn northerly. With a good deal of
sunshine on Thu, high temperatures will again reach the 80 to 85
degree mark over the interior. But there will be a better chance
of sea breezes along the entire east and southeast coastline, with
temperatures only reaching mid 60s to mid 70s at the immediate
coast.

Thursday night and Friday... The front that moved through Wed night
will strengthen to our south and begin to head northward Thu night.
Winds will turn to the east and southeast, bringing an increase in
moisture and a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms later
Thu night. Friday now looks like a much cooler day than earlier
anticipated, with a warm front in our vicinity and a continuation
of E to SE flow. It will be on the cloudy side with a chance of
showers and thunderstorms, especially in western sections. Highs
only in the 70s...cooler at the immediate coast.

Saturday and Sunday... This far out...there is still a fair amount
of uncertainty. However, it looks like the warm front will drift
slowly northward on Saturday and be completely north of the region
on Sunday. The Memorial Day weekend should feature a return of
summer-like temperatures with highs in the mid 80s. Upper 80s are
possible in the Connecticut River valley on Sunday. There is a
possibility of scattered diurnally-driven afternoon and evening
showers or thunderstorms, but most of the time it should be dry.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday/...

Today...Moderate-High Confidence.

VFR most of the day. Areas of IFR ceilings/vsbys in patchy early
morning fog, especially in Greater Springfield and in the
lowlands of Southeast MA. Showers may develop late in the day in
CT, and toward evening along the South Coast. This could bring
local MVFR vsbys at that time.

Tonight...Moderate Confidence.

Showers and widely scattered thunderstorms move across Southern
New England. This will bring a few periods of MVFR cigs and vsbys.
Also MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys in fog especially in RI and SE Mass.

Tuesday...Moderate Confidence.

Showers and widely scattered thunder will continue. Areas of
MVFR/IFR in showers and fog areas. Conditions may improve to
mainly VFR especially in CT and Western MA late in the day.

KBOS TAF...Greatest uncertainty is in timing of showers for this
evening and tonight. Because of this any mention of showers has
been tagged as vicinity rather than directly mentioned.

KBDL TAF...Greatest uncertainty is in timing of showers for this
evening and tonight. A couple of showers could reach the airport
between 5 PM and 8 PM, but more likely to occur after 8 PM.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday night... Moderate confidence. Any lingering MVFR
improving to VFR after midnight. Could be isolated IFR in patchy
fog late.

Wednesday through Thursday...High Confidence. VFR.

Thursday night and Friday... Low to Moderate Confidence. Mainly
VFR early Thu night...becoming MVFR with areas of IFR in showers
and possible fog patches. Isolated thunderstorms late Thu night.
Mainly MVFR throughout the region on Fri with scattered showers
and thunderstorms. Isolated IFR possible in heavier showers or in
patchy fog mainly near the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today...Moderate Confidence.

Low pressure moves up the coast from Virginia and the Carolinas.
Most of the day will be fair with North winds turning from the
Northeast. Speeds will be 15 knots or less. Seas will slowly
subside through the day with lingering 5 to 7 foot seas subsiding
through the day. Small craft advisory for hazardous seas is in
effect, mostly for the outer waters, through the day.

Tonight and Tuesday...Moderate Confidence.

Coastal low pressure moves across the waters. This will bring
showers and widely scattered thunder with lower visibility in
showers and fog. Winds will remain 15 knots or less, and seas will
mostly be less than 5 feet. A few 5 foot readings could show up on
the southern outer waters Tuesday.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday night into early Wednesday... Moderate Confidence.

A small craft advisory may be needed for seas of 5 to 6 feet over
the southeastern outer waters Tue night...subsiding to below 5
feet by Wed afternoon. Otherwise...light southwesterly winds.

Wednesday night and Thursday... Moderate confidence.

Light winds from the southwest will shift to the northwest Wed
night and to the northeast to east on Thu. Seas mainly well below
small craft criteria...but could reach 5 feet over the waters
southeast of Nantucket late Thu afternoon.

Thursday night and Friday... Moderate confidence.

Southeast winds on the order of 10-15 kt and seas 1 to 3 feet.
Just a slight chance of showers or a thunderstorm.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 11 PM EDT this
     evening for ANZ250-254-255.
     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until noon EDT today
     for ANZ251.
     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 8 AM EDT this
     morning for ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/GAF
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...GAF
AVIATION...WTB/GAF
MARINE...WTB/GAF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 230822
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
422 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
We are in between weather systems today, with fair dry weather
during much of the daylight hours. Low pressure moves up the
coast this evening through Tuesday bringing showers and
thunderstorms. A significant warmup will occur Wednesday.
A weak front will move south of the region Wednesday night
with dry, warm weather for Thursday. The front will move north
toward southern New England as a warm front on Friday bringing
scattered showers and thunderstorms. The front will continue to
drift slowly north over the Memorial Day weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Closed upper low is in place along the Northeast and Mid Atlantic
coasts, although the most significant instability remains from PA
to North Carolina through the day before moving into Southern New
England this evening.

Heating by the sun will create sufficient mixing to reach near 800
mb, where temps will support max surface values in the mid to
upper 70s. A light northeast surface wind will keep temperatures
near the Mass East Coast in the upper 50s and 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Tonight...

Instability moving up from Eastern PA may reach western CT this
evening and bring a few showers. The more significant feature will
be low pressure surface and aloft that will move north toward New
England. This feature will bring colder temps aloft over our area,
supporting greater instability. Upper jet moving around the low
will be just east of MA with the lift-supporting left exit region
over RI and eastern MA. For both reasons, expect showers moving up
from the south tonight with sufficient instability for a couple of
thunderstorms too. Will use likely POPs, but on the lower side of
this range.

Clouds and the northeast flow off the water point to min sfc temps
near the dew point, in the lower 50s.

Tuesday...

Core of the upper low moves over RI and Eastern MA. Similarity
among the models gives some confidence to this positioning. Core
of the cold pool aloft also moves over our area, so instability
will linger through the day. Concern remains for the chance of a
couple of thunderstorms due to the unstable airmass. We will
mention slight chance of thunder. POPs will be at high-end chance
or low-end likely much of the day.

Tuesday will be much cloudier than today so more limited mixing,
probably to 925 mb or 900 mb. Temps at these levels would support
max surface temps in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Highlights...

 * Significantly warmer Wednesday and Thursday
 * Cooler on Friday with Scattered showers and thunderstorms
 * Warm for Memorial Day weekend with a few showers/thunderstorms

Overview and Model Preferences...

At upper levels...a persistent upper low moves northeast over the
Canadian Maritimes by late Wednesday afternoon. A strong upper
level ridge of high pressure will develop from the mid-Atlantic
coast to New England late in the week and next weekend.

At the surface...a weak front will slip south of the region Wed
night bringing a wind shift to the north and drier air for Thu.
That front will strengthen and move northward as a warm front by
Fri...bringing increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms and
cooler weather. The front will slowly edge northward next weekend
allowing summerlike temperatures to return for the Memorial Day
weekend but with a few showers and thunderstorms possible each day.

Tuesday night... As the upper low finally moves northeast away
from the region, any lingering light showers will end in the
evening and skies will clear out after midnight. Lows mainly
50-55.

Wednesday...

Brief ridge of high pressure to our south takes over, leading to
westerly downslope air flow, drier conditions, and more summer-
like temperatures away from the coast...mainly 80 to 85.There
could be seabreezes, but it appears the synoptic flow could be
just strong enough to prevent lower temperatures along parts of
the MA east coast. Cape Cod and the islands, as well as Cape Ann,
however, will likely remain as cool as the south coast of New
England, where southwest winds should prevail...upper 60s to mid
70s there.

Wednesday night and Thursday... Weak low pressure passes by to our
northeast Wed evening and an associated weak front will move
across our region. The front will usher in very dry air aloft
and light west winds will turn northerly. With a good deal of
sunshine on Thu, high temperatures will again reach the 80 to 85
degree mark over the interior. But there will be a better chance
of sea breezes along the entire east and southeast coastline, with
temperatures only reaching mid 60s to mid 70s at the immediate
coast.

Thursday night and Friday... The front that moved through Wed night
will strengthen to our south and begin to head northward Thu night.
Winds will turn to the east and southeast, bringing an increase in
moisture and a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms later
Thu night. Friday now looks like a much cooler day than earlier
anticipated, with a warm front in our vicinity and a continuation
of E to SE flow. It will be on the cloudy side with a chance of
showers and thunderstorms, especially in western sections. Highs
only in the 70s...cooler at the immediate coast.

Saturday and Sunday... This far out...there is still a fair amount
of uncertainty. However, it looks like the warm front will drift
slowly northward on Saturday and be completely north of the region
on Sunday. The Memorial Day weekend should feature a return of
summer-like temperatures with highs in the mid 80s. Upper 80s are
possible in the Connecticut River valley on Sunday. There is a
possibility of scattered diurnally-driven afternoon and evening
showers or thunderstorms, but most of the time it should be dry.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday/...

Today...Moderate-High Confidence.

VFR most of the day. Areas of IFR ceilings/vsbys in patchy early
morning fog, especially in Greater Springfield and in the
lowlands of Southeast MA. Showers may develop late in the day in
CT, and toward evening along the South Coast. This could bring
local MVFR vsbys at that time.

Tonight...Moderate Confidence.

Showers and widely scattered thunderstorms move across Southern
New England. This will bring a few periods of MVFR cigs and vsbys.
Also MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys in fog especially in RI and SE Mass.

Tuesday...Moderate Confidence.

Showers and widely scattered thunder will continue. Areas of
MVFR/IFR in showers and fog areas. Conditions may improve to
mainly VFR especially in CT and Western MA late in the day.

KBOS TAF...Greatest uncertainty is in timing of showers for this
evening and tonight. Because of this any mention of showers has
been tagged as vicinity rather than directly mentioned.

KBDL TAF...Greatest uncertainty is in timing of showers for this
evening and tonight. A couple of showers could reach the airport
between 5 PM and 8 PM, but more likely to occur after 8 PM.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday night... Moderate confidence. Any lingering MVFR
improving to VFR after midnight. Could be isolated IFR in patchy
fog late.

Wednesday through Thursday...High Confidence. VFR.

Thursday night and Friday... Low to Moderate Confidence. Mainly
VFR early Thu night...becoming MVFR with areas of IFR in showers
and possible fog patches. Isolated thunderstorms late Thu night.
Mainly MVFR throughout the region on Fri with scattered showers
and thunderstorms. Isolated IFR possible in heavier showers or in
patchy fog mainly near the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today...Moderate Confidence.

Low pressure moves up the coast from Virginia and the Carolinas.
Most of the day will be fair with North winds turning from the
Northeast. Speeds will be 15 knots or less. Seas will slowly
subside through the day with lingering 5 to 7 foot seas subsiding
through the day. Small craft advisory for hazardous seas is in
effect, mostly for the outer waters, through the day.

Tonight and Tuesday...Moderate Confidence.

Coastal low pressure moves across the waters. This will bring
showers and widely scattered thunder with lower visibility in
showers and fog. Winds will remain 15 knots or less, and seas will
mostly be less than 5 feet. A few 5 foot readings could show up on
the southern outer waters Tuesday.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday night into early Wednesday... Moderate Confidence.

A small craft advisory may be needed for seas of 5 to 6 feet over
the southeastern outer waters Tue night...subsiding to below 5
feet by Wed afternoon. Otherwise...light southwesterly winds.

Wednesday night and Thursday... Moderate confidence.

Light winds from the southwest will shift to the northwest Wed
night and to the northeast to east on Thu. Seas mainly well below
small craft criteria...but could reach 5 feet over the waters
southeast of Nantucket late Thu afternoon.

Thursday night and Friday... Moderate confidence.

Southeast winds on the order of 10-15 kt and seas 1 to 3 feet.
Just a slight chance of showers or a thunderstorm.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until noon EDT today
     for ANZ231-251.
     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 11 PM EDT this
     evening for ANZ250-254-255.
     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 8 AM EDT this
     morning for ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/GAF
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...GAF
AVIATION...WTB/GAF
MARINE...WTB/GAF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 230703
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
303 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
We are in between weather systems today, with fair dry weather
during much of the daylight hours. Coastal low pressure moves up
the coast this evening through Tuesday bringing showers and
thunderstorms. A significant warmup will occur Wednesday,
continuing into next weekend. Scattered showers or thunderstorms
are possible from Thursday into next weekend, especially over
western sections.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Closed upper low is in place along the Northeast and Mid Atlantic
coasts, although the most significant instability remains from PA
to North Carolina through the day before moving into Southern New
England this evening.

Heating by the sun will create sufficient mixing to reach near 800
mb, where temps will support max surface values in the mid to
upper 70s. A light northeast surface wind will keep temperatures
near the Mass East Coast in the upper 50s and 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Tonight...

Instability moving up from Eastern PA may reach western CT this
evening and bring a few showers. The more significant feature will
be low pressure surface and aloft that will move north toward New
England. This feature will bring colder temps aloft over our area,
supporting greater instability. Upper jet moving around the low
will be just east of MA with the lift-supporting left exit region
over RI and eastern MA. For both reasons, expect showers moving up
from the south tonight with sufficient instability for a couple of
thunderstorms too. Will use likely POPs, but on the lower side of
this range.

Clouds and the northeast flow off the water point to min sfc temps
near the dew point, in the lower 50s.

Tuesday...

Core of the upper low moves over RI and Eastern MA. Similarity
among the models gives some confidence to this positioning. Core
of the cold pool aloft also moves over our area, so instability
will linger through the day. Concern remains for the chance of a
couple of thunderstorms due to the unstable airmass. We will
mention slight chance of thunder. POPs will be at high-end chance
or low-end likely much of the day.

Tuesday will be much cloudier than today so more limited mixing,
probably to 925 mb or 900 mb. Temps at these levels would support
max surface temps in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Highlights...

 * Significantly warmer Wednesday into next weekend
 * Scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday into next weekend,
   especially over western sections.

Overview and Model Preferences...

Very good agreement in the latest guidance suite in moving a
persistent upper low toward the Maritimes by late Wednesday
afternoon. Strong ridging over the north Atlantic edges west over
the southeast USA late this week. This will mean more summer-like
conditions late this week into next weekend. With the increasing
heat and humidity, also expecting the possibility for diurnal
showers and thunderstorms, each day.

Subtle, but significant, differences in the details Friday into
next weekend. The predictability of these details is rather low,
so will favor a consensus approach, for now.

Details...

Wednesday...

Brief ridge of high pressure to our south takes over, leading to
downslope air flow, drier conditions, and more summer-like
temperatures away from the coast. There could be seabreezes, but
it appears the synoptic flow could be just strong enough to
prevent lower temperatures along parts of the MA east coast. Cape
Cod and the islands, as well as Cape Ann, however, will likely
remain as cool as the south coast of New England, where southwest
winds should prevail.

Thursday through Sunday...

This still appears to be a prolonged period of summer-like heat
and humidity, especially away from the coasts. The questions to
be answered during this portion of the forecast are: where will a
frontal boundary be between Thursday and Friday, and how quickly
will it move? A scenario can be seen where we wind up on the cold
side Friday, which would mean lower temperatures and a greater
risk for showers.

Diurnal showers, and perhaps some thunderstorms, are expected
through most of this period. The position of this front will have
a large impact on chances, and is one of the more uncertain
aspects of this forecast. Will keep a chance for showers in the
forecast until this critical detail can be better worked out.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday/...

Today...Moderate-High Confidence.

VFR most of the day. Areas of IFR ceilings/vsbys in patchy early
morning fog, especially in Greater Springfield and in the
lowlands of Southeast MA. Showers may develop late in the day in
CT, and toward evening along the South Coast. This could bring
local MVFR vsbys at that time.

Tonight...Moderate Confidence.

Showers and widely scattered thunderstorms move across Southern
New England. This will bring a few periods of MVFR cigs and vsbys.
Also MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys in fog especially in RI and SE Mass.

Tuesday...Moderate Confidence.

Showers and widely scattered thunder will continue. Areas of
MVFR/IFR in showers and fog areas. Conditions may improve to
mainly VFR especially in CT and Western MA late in the day.


KBOS TAF...Greatest uncertainty is in timing of showers for this
evening and tonight. Because of this any mention of showers has
been tagged as vicinity rather than directly mentioned.

KBDL TAF...Greatest uncertainty is in timing of showers for this
evening and tonight. A couple of showers could reach the airport
between 5 PM and 8 PM, but more likely to occur after 8 PM.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Wednesday...High Confidence. Mainly VFR.

Thursday...Moderate Confidence. Mainly VFR. Scattered MVFR in
scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly west of KLWM-KORH-KIJD.

Friday...Moderate Confidence. Mainly VFR. Scattered MVFR in
scattered showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today...Moderate Confidence.

Low pressure moves up the coast from Virginia and the Carolinas.
Most of the day will be fair with North winds turning from the
Northeast. Speeds will be 15 knots or less. Seas will slowly
subside through the day with lingering 5 to 7 foot seas subsiding
through the day. Small craft advisory for hazardous seas is in
effect, mostly for the outer waters, through the day.

Tonight and Tuesday...Moderate Confidence.

Coastal low pressure moves across the waters. This will bring
showers and widely scattered thunder with lower visibility in
showers and fog. Winds will remain 15 knots or less, and seas will
mostly be less than 5 feet. A few 5 foot readings could show up on
the southern outer waters Tuesday.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Wednesday into Friday...High Confidence.

High pressure briefly builds over the waters. Mainly quiet
boating weather is expected with winds and seas below Small Craft
Advisory levels.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until noon EDT today
     for ANZ231-251.
     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 11 PM EDT this
     evening for ANZ250-254-255.
     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 8 AM EDT this
     morning for ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/Belk
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...Belk
AVIATION...WTB/Belk
MARINE...WTB/Belk




000
FXUS61 KBOX 230701
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
301 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
We are in between weather systems today, with fair dry weather
during much of the daylight hours. Coastal low pressure moves up
the coast this evening through Tuesday bringing showers and
thunderstorms. A significant warmup will occur Wednesday,
continuing into next weekend. Scattered showers or thunderstorms
are possible from Thursday into next weekend, especially over
western sections.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...

Closed upper low is in place along the Northeast and Mid Atlantic
coasts, although the most significant instability remains from PA
to North Carolina through the day before moving into Southern New
England this evening.

Heating by the sun will create sufficient mixing to reach near 800
mb, where temps will support max surface values in the mid to
upper 70s. A light northeast surface wind will keep temperatures
near the Mass East Coast in the upper 50s and 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

Tonight...

Instability moving up from Eastern PA may reach western CT this
evening and bring a few showers. The more significant feature will
be low pressure surface and aloft that will move north toward New
England. This feature will bring colder temps aloft over our area,
supporting greater instability. Upper jet moving around the low
will be just east of MA with the lift-supporting left exit region
over RI and eastern MA. For both reasons, expect showers moving up
from the south tonight with sufficient instability for a couple of
thunderstorms too. Will use likely POPs, but on the lower side of
this range.

Clouds and the northeast flow off the water point to min sfc temps
near the dew point, in the lower 50s.

Tuesday...

Core of the upper low moves over RI and Eastern MA. Similarity
among the models gives some confidence to this positioning. Core
of the cold pool aloft also moves over our area, so instability
will linger through the day. Concern remains for the chance of a
couple of thunderstorms due to the unstable airmass. We will
mention slight chance of thunder. POPs will be at high-end chance
or low-end likely much of the day.

Tuesday will be much cloudier than today so more limited mixing,
probably to 925 mb or 900 mb. Temps at these levels would support
max surface temps in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Highlights...

 * Significantly warmer Wednesday into next weekend
 * Scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday into next weekend,
   especially over western sections.

Overview and Model Preferences...

Very good agreement in the latest guidance suite in moving a
persistent upper low toward the Maritimes by late Wednesday
afternoon. Strong ridging over the north Atlantic edges west over
the southeast USA late this week. This will mean more summer-like
conditions late this week into next weekend. With the increasing
heat and humidity, also expecting the possibility for diurnal
showers and thunderstorms, each day.

Subtle, but significant, differences in the details Friday into
next weekend. The predictability of these details is rather low,
so will favor a consensus approach, for now.

Details...

Wednesday...

Brief ridge of high pressure to our south takes over, leading to
downslope air flow, drier conditions, and more summer-like
temperatures away from the coast. There could be seabreezes, but
it appears the synoptic flow could be just strong enough to
prevent lower temperatures along parts of the MA east coast. Cape
Cod and the islands, as well as Cape Ann, however, will likely
remain as cool as the south coast of New England, where southwest
winds should prevail.

Thursday through Sunday...

This still appears to be a prolonged period of summer-like heat
and humidity, especially away from the coasts. The questions to
be answered during this portion of the forecast are: where will a
frontal boundary be between Thursday and Friday, and how quickly
will it move? A scenario can be seen where we wind up on the cold
side Friday, which would mean lower temperatures and a greater
risk for showers.

Diurnal showers, and perhaps some thunderstorms, are expected
through most of this period. The position of this front will have
a large impact on chances, and is one of the more uncertain
aspects of this forecast. Will keep a chance for showers in the
forecast until this critical detail can be better worked out.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday/...

Today...Moderate-High Confidence.

VFR most of the day. Areas of IFR ceilings/vsbys in patchy early
morning fog, especially in Greater Springfield and in the
lowlands of Southeast MA. Showers may develop late in the day in
CT, and toward evening along the South Coast. This could bring
local MVFR vsbys at that time.

Tonight...Moderate Confidence.

Showers and widely scattered thunderstorms move across Southern
New England. This will bring a few periods of MVFR cigs and vsbys.
Also MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys in fog especially in RI and SE Mass.

Tuesday...Moderate Confidence.

Showers and widely scattered thunder will continue. Areas of
MVFR/IFR in showers and fog areas. Conditions may improve to
mainly VFR especially in CT and Western MA late in the day.


KBOS TAF...Greatest uncertainty is in timing of showers for this
evening and tonight. Because of this any mention of showers has
been tagged as vicinity rather than directly mentioned.

KBDL TAF...Greatest uncertainty is in timing of showers for this
evening and tonight. A couple of showers could reach the airport
between 5 PM and 8 PM, but more likely to occur after 8 PM.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Wednesday...High Confidence. Mainly VFR.

Thursday...Moderate Confidence. Mainly VFR. Scattered MVFR in
scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly west of KLWM-KORH-KIJD.

Friday...Moderate Confidence. Mainly VFR. Scattered MVFR in
scattered showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today...Moderate Confidence.

Low pressure moves up the coast from Virginia and the Carolinas.
Most of the day will be fair with North winds turning from the
Northeast. Speeds will be 15 knots or less. Seas will slowly
subside through the day with lingering 5 to 7 foot seas subsiding
through the day. Small craft advisory for hazardous seas is in
effect, mostly for the outer waters, through the day.

Tonight and Tuesday...Moderate Confidence.

Coastal low pressure moves across the waters. This will bring
showers and widely scattered thunder with lower visibility in
showers and fog. Winds will remain 15 knots or less, and seas will
mostly be less than 5 feet. A few 5 foot readings could show up on
the southern outer waters Tuesday.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Wednesday into Friday...High Confidence.

High pressure briefly builds over the waters. Mainly quiet
boating weather is expected with winds and seas below Small Craft
Advisory levels.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until noon EDT today
     for ANZ231-251.
     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 11 PM EDT this
  evening for ANZ250-254-255. Small Craft Advisory for hazardous
seas until 8 AM EDT this morning for ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/Belk
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...Belk
AVIATION...WTB/Belk
MARINE...WTB/Belk




000
FXUS61 KBOX 222343
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
743 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry tonight into the early half of Monday, before a second area
of low pressure moves up the coast and ushers in wet weather
through Tuesday. A significant warmup will occur Wednesday,
continuing into next weekend. Scattered showers or thunderstorms
are possible from Thursday into next weekend, especially over
western sections.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Main axis of showers expected to stay well west of southern new
England. Did note a lone shower in central Hampshire county moving
southwest. This shower may impact western Hampden county before
8:30 pm. With sunset fast approaching, not expecting more showers
to develop.

Brought the forecast back in line with observed trends, especially
sky cover.

Previous discussion...

An overall quiet forecast period. Initial coastal low lifts NE into
SE Canada as a secondary coastal low emerges off the Mid-Atlantic in
response to N stream energy diving S, cutting off from the main mid-
latitude flow.

Between the two systems looking at scattered to broken cloud decks
with light N winds albeit a bit more brisk over E/SE coastal MA with
the possibility of some drizzle or light showery weather per cold
conveyor belt motions. Dry W with isentropic downsloping NW to SE.
Lows milder E/SE with anticipated socked in conditions, around the
50 degree mark, while mid to upper 40s with partial clearing W.

Otherwise, a high risk of rip currents continues into this evening
along the eastern portions of Cape Cod and Nantucket, as well as
along the south coast, from Bristol County, MA to Westerly, RI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Monday...

A return of wet weather. Coastal low off the Mid-Atlantic gets wound
up and pulled back, occluding towards the N and W beneath the mid to
upper level low. Will see an increase in wet weather and clouds as a
result of several factors.

The first per a trowaling confluence of conveyor belts as mid-level
vortex energy parent to the mid to upper level low pushes N. Parent
forcing on the increase along with an isallobaric NE wind results in
high-end chance to likely PoPs late.

The second per vortex energy stretched and inverted N of the low
maintaining low level confluence across Upstate NY and PA E into the
CT River Valley. Cooler air aloft yielding steeper lapse rates in an
environment of favorable lift, with any diurnal forcing especially
with sunshine we would likely see some shower activity emerge. Focus
especially along the high terrain with orographic influences upon
convergent flow.

The likely window of partial clearing more likely N and W just prior
to increasing cloud and PoP chances late should allow highs to warm
into the low to mid 70s. Cooler E and SE with increasing NE onshore
flow. Will follow closely to ensemble probabilities with regards
to PoP chances in such a chaotic pattern that has been poorly
handled by a majority of the forecast guidance.

Monday Night...

Surface low continues to back and occlude beneath the cutoff mid to
upper level low pulling N and across S New England in response. In
its mature to dying phase conveyor belt motions undergo strong
forcing across much of S New England within the comma head of the
low itself. This prior to drier air wrapping into and cutting off
the system.

Likely PoPs warranted early, perhaps diminishing into morning. Will
need to monitor SE New England for the possibility of an elevated
convective setup. Weak instability but strong shear, convective
indicies exceeding respective thresholds, can not rule out a rumble
of thunder for SE communities but have low confidence with regards
to a severe threat with any convection.

Abundance of clouds and moisture with a continued E/NE flow, looking
at lows in the low to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Highlights...

 * Good chance of showers Tuesday
 * Significantly warmer Wednesday into next weekend
 * Scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday into next weekend,
   especially over western sections.

Overview and Model Preferences...

Very good agreement in the latest guidance suite in moving a
persistent upper low toward the Maritimes by late Wednesday
afternoon. Strong ridging over the north Atlantic edges west over
the southeast USA late this week. This will mean more summer-like
conditions late this week into next weekend. With the increasing
heat and humidity, also expecting the possibility for diurnal
showers and thunderstorms, each day.

Subtle, but significant, differences in the details Friday into
next weekend. The predictability of these details is rather low,
so will favor a consensus approach, for now.

Details...

Tuesday...

Core of the upper level cold pool moves over southern New England.
Still differences in the specific low tracks among the latest
models, so confidence is not high on this particular aspect, yet.
Guidance does agree on a low pressure passing close enough to
southern New England where we would need at least a chance for
some showers in the forecast.

We will need to keep an eye on the possibility of some
thunderstorms, too. While the cold pool aloft will mean an
unstable atmosphere, the northeast onshore flow should limit the
available energy to put into thunderstorm updrafts.

Expecting below normal temperatures due to abundant clouds and
scattered showers.

Wednesday...

Brief ridge of high pressure to our south takes over, leading to
downslope air flow, drier conditions, and more summer-like
temperatures away from the coast. There could be seabreezes, but
it appears the synoptic flow could be just strong enough to
prevent lower temperatures along parts of the MA east coast. Cape
Cod and the islands, as well as Cape Ann, however, will likely
remain as cool as the south coast of New England, where southwest
winds should prevail.

Thursday through Sunday...

This still appears to be a prolonged period of summer-like heat
and humidity, especially away from the coasts. The questions to
be answered during this portion of the forecast are: where will a
frontal boundary be between Thursday and Friday, and how quickly
will it move? A scenario can be seen where we wind up on the cold
side Friday, which would mean lower temperatures and a greater
risk for showers.

Diurnal showers, and perhaps some thunderstorms, are expected
through most of this period. The position of this front will have
a large impact on chances, and is one of the more uncertain
aspects of this forecast. Will keep a chance for showers in the
forecast until this critical detail can be better worked out.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Monday Night/...

Tonight...Moderate Confidence.

Mainly VFR across southern New England this evening. With onshore
northeast flow, cannot rule a return to local IFR in stratus,
drizzle and/or fog. As winds shift more north than northeast, the
risk for IFR conditions will decrease, except across the outer
Cape and Nantucket.

Monday...Moderate Confidence.

Low-end VFR cigs with MVFR across E/SE coastal terminals. Will
heighten the risk of IFR to moderate keeping it confined to SE
coastal terminals. -SHRA developing late, focus along the S coast
as well as the N/W interior out into the CT River Valley. NE flow
prevailing with gusts up to 20 kts especially over the E/SE coast.

Monday Night...Moderate Confidence.

-RA likely for all terminals. Deteriorating conditions into the
evening hours and prevailing overnight. Mix of MVFR down to LIFR
with NE winds prevailing, gusts upwards of 20 kts especially across
the E/SE coastal terminals. A final note, there is a low risk of
TSRA for SE coastal terminals.

KBOS TAF...Pulling out MVFR and keeping cigs VFR with the low-end
of the spectrum SCT per webcams shortly before 18z. Not much issue
in thinking with landing on the 4`s if that be the case with NE
winds prevailing, gusts up to 15 kts.

KBDL TAF...Becoming SCT and dry and such trends should continue
into the overnight hours. N winds with gusts limited to 15 kts.
Will see a return of low cigs and wet weather late Monday with a
continued downward trend into Monday night.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...

Tuesday...Moderate Confidence.

Scattered showers will continue across the area with NE flow. An
isolated TSRA is also possible. This also suggests low clouds.
Therefore, periods of MVFR/IFR are likely, but it`s possible that
occasional VFR will occur, especially across the interior.

Wednesday...High Confidence. Mainly VFR.

Thursday...Moderate Confidence. Mainly VFR. Scattered MVFR in
scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly west of KLWM-KORH-KIJD.

Friday...Moderate Confidence. Mainly VFR. Scattered MVFR in
scattered showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight...High confidence.

Coastal low lifts into SE Canada behind which NE winds diminish.
Seas remain 5 to 9 feet resulting in small craft advisories on the
outer waters.

Monday into Monday Night...Moderate confidence.

Second coastal low moves up the coast through the day with impacts
towards late. Into evening will see increasing areal coverage of
rain along with NE winds. Restrictions to visibility with the wet
weather along with gusts up to 20 kts. Seas maintain 5 to 7 feet.
Small craft advisories continue.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...

Tuesday...Moderate Confidence.

Secondary low lingers with subsequent wind and S swell. Seas may
reach 7 to 8 feet south of Nantucket. Small craft advisories may
need to continue for some waters.

Wednesday into Friday...High Confidence.

High pressure briefly builds over the waters. Mainly quiet
boating weather is expected with winds and seas below Small Craft
Advisory levels.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM EDT this evening for MAZ020-
     022-024.
RI...High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     RIZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Monday for ANZ231-251.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for ANZ235-237.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ250-254-255.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/Sipprell
NEAR TERM...Belk/Sipprell
SHORT TERM...Sipprell
LONG TERM...Belk
AVIATION...Belk/Sipprell
MARINE...Belk/Sipprell




000
FXUS61 KBOX 222039
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
439 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry tonight into the early half of Monday, before a second area
of low pressure moves up the coast and ushers in wet weather
through Tuesday. A significant warmup will occur Wednesday,
continuing into next weekend. Scattered showers or thunderstorms
are possible from Thursday into next weekend, especially over
western sections.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Rest of today...

Much of the area will remain dry beneath sinking air behind the
departing coastal low into SE Canada. As observed via radar trends
most if not all of the showery weather has concluded. Via satellite
a lot of the low cloud decks have eroded with only some mid to upper
level cloud decks lingering along the leading edge of mid-level
vortex energy and remnant S moist flow.

So only concern towards evening is to the N/W. Can not rule out
that a combination of diurnal forcing along the leading edge of
some mid level vortex energy around the broader trough pattern in
an environment of steep lapse rates up to H7 yields shower and
even possibly thunderstorm activity into the W CT River Valley.
But will hold the activity just N/W outside of our forecast area.
High terrain will be an influencing factor so can not rule out
some development to the immediate N/W over the Berkshires. Just
something to watch out for towards sunset. Chance PoPs accordingly.

Scattered to broken cloud decks continuing with temperatures
topping out around the mid to upper 60s.


Tonight...

An overall quiet forecast period. Initial coastal low lifts NE into
SE Canada as a secondary coastal low emerges off the Mid-Atlantic in
response to N stream energy diving S, cutting off from the main mid-
latitude flow.

Between the two systems looking at scattered to broken cloud decks
with light N winds albeit a bit more brisk over E/SE coastal MA with
the possibility of some drizzle or light showery weather per cold
conveyor belt motions. Dry W with isentropic downsloping NW to SE.
Lows milder E/SE with anticipated socked in conditions, around the
50 degree mark, while mid to upper 40s with partial clearing W.

Otherwise, a high risk of rip currents continues into this evening
along the eastern portions of Cape Cod and Nantucket, as well as
along the south coast, from Bristol County, MA to Westerly, RI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Monday...

A return of wet weather. Coastal low off the Mid-Atlantic gets wound
up and pulled back, occluding towards the N and W beneath the mid to
upper level low. Will see an increase in wet weather and clouds as a
result of several factors.

The first per a trowaling confluence of conveyor belts as mid-level
vortex energy parent to the mid to upper level low pushes N. Parent
forcing on the increase along with an isallobaric NE wind results in
high-end chance to likely PoPs late.

The second per vortex energy stretched and inverted N of the low
maintaining low level confluence across Upstate NY and PA E into the
CT River Valley. Cooler air aloft yielding steeper lapse rates in an
environment of favorable lift, with any diurnal forcing especially
with sunshine we would likely see some shower activity emerge. Focus
especially along the high terrain with orographic influences upon
convergent flow.

The likely window of partial clearing more likely N and W just prior
to increasing cloud and PoP chances late should allow highs to warm
into the low to mid 70s. Cooler E and SE with increasing NE onshore
flow. Will follow closely to ensemble probabilities with regards
to PoP chances in such a chaotic pattern that has been poorly
handled by a majority of the forecast guidance.

Monday Night...

Surface low continues to back and occlude beneath the cutoff mid to
upper level low pulling N and across S New England in response. In
its mature to dying phase conveyor belt motions undergo strong
forcing across much of S New England within the comma head of the
low itself. This prior to drier air wrapping into and cutting off
the system.

Likely PoPs warranted early, perhaps diminishing into morning. Will
need to monitor SE New England for the possibility of an elevated
convective setup. Weak instability but strong shear, convective
indicies exceeding respective thresholds, can not rule out a rumble
of thunder for SE communities but have low confidence with regards
to a severe threat with any convection.

Abundance of clouds and moisture with a continued E/NE flow, looking
at lows in the low to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Highlights...

 * Good chance of showers Tuesday
 * Significantly warmer Wednesday into next weekend
 * Scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday into next weekend,
   especially over western sections.

Overview and Model Preferences...

Very good agreement in the latest guidance suite in moving a
persistent upper low toward the Maritimes by late Wednesday
afternoon. Strong ridging over the north Atlantic edges west over
the southeast USA late this week. This will mean more summer-like
conditions late this week into next weekend. With the increasing
heat and humidity, also expecting the possibility for diurnal
showers and thunderstorms, each day.

Subtle, but significant, differences in the details Friday into
next weekend. The predictability of these details is rather low,
so will favor a consensus approach, for now.

Details...

Tuesday...

Core of the upper level cold pool moves over southern New England.
Still differences in the specific low tracks among the latest
models, so confidence is not high on this particular aspect, yet.
Guidance does agree on a low pressure passing close enough to
southern New England where we would need at least a chance for
some showers in the forecast.

We will need to keep an eye on the possibility of some
thunderstorms, too. While the cold pool aloft will mean an
unstable atmosphere, the northeast onshore flow should limit the
available energy to put into thunderstorm updrafts.

Expecting below normal temperatures due to abundant clouds and
scattered showers.

Wednesday...

Brief ridge of high pressure to our south takes over, leading to
downslope air flow, drier conditions, and more summer-like
temperatures away from the coast. There could be seabreezes, but
it appears the synoptic flow could be just strong enough to
prevent lower temperatures along parts of the MA east coast. Cape
Cod and the islands, as well as Cape Ann, however, will likely
remain as cool as the south coast of New England, where southwest
winds should prevail.

Thursday through Sunday...

This still appears to be a prolonged period of summer-like heat
and humidity, especially away from the coasts. The questions to
be answered during this portion of the forecast are: where will a
frontal boundary be between Thursday and Friday, and how quickly
will it move? A scenario can be seen where we wind up on the cold
side Friday, which would mean lower temperatures and a greater
risk for showers.

Diurnal showers, and perhaps some thunderstorms, are expected
through most of this period. The position of this front will have
a large impact on chances, and is one of the more uncertain
aspects of this forecast. Will keep a chance for showers in the
forecast until this critical detail can be better worked out.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Monday Night/...

18z update...

Today and Tonight...High Confidence.

Trying to keep optimistic but surprised as how IFR is lingering
across SE coastal terminals. May remain the norm with NE winds
gusting around 25 kts through the overnight period with the
additional threat of DZ/-RA. Otherwise all other terminals VFR
with light N/NE winds. Low-end VFR cigs. Lesser confidence MVFR.
Also watching N/W terminals only for this afternoon as to the
possibility of SCT SHRA and low risk TSRA.

Monday...Moderate Confidence.

Low-end VFR cigs with MVFR across E/SE coastal terminals. Will
heighten the risk of IFR to moderate keeping it confined to SE
coastal terminals. -SHRA developing late, focus along the S coast
as well as the N/W interior out into the CT River Valley. NE flow
prevailing with gusts up to 20 kts especially over the E/SE coast.

Monday Night...Moderate Confidence.

-RA likely for all terminals. Deteriorating conditions into the
evening hours and prevailing overnight. Mix of MVFR down to LIFR
with NE winds prevailing, gusts upwards of 20 kts especially across
the E/SE coastal terminals. A final note, there is a low risk of
TSRA for SE coastal terminals.

KBOS TAF...Pulling out MVFR and keeping cigs VFR with the low-end
of the spectrum SCT per webcams shortly before 18z. Not much issue
in thinking with landing on the 4`s if that be the case with NE
winds prevailing, gusts up to 15 kts.

KBDL TAF...Becoming SCT and dry and such trends should continue
into the overnight hours. N winds with gusts limited to 15 kts.
Will see a return of low cigs and wet weather late Monday with a
continued downward trend into Monday night.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...

Tuesday...Moderate Confidence.

Scattered showers will continue across the area with NE flow. An
isolated TSRA is also possible. This also suggests low clouds.
Therefore, periods of MVFR/IFR are likely, but it`s possible that
occasional VFR will occur, especially across the interior.

Wednesday...High Confidence. Mainly VFR.

Thursday...Moderate Confidence. Mainly VFR. Scattered MVFR in
scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly west of KLWM-KORH-KIJD.

Friday...Moderate Confidence. Mainly VFR. Scattered MVFR in
scattered showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

3 pm update...

Tonight...High confidence.

Coastal low lifts into SE Canada behind which NE winds diminish.
Seas remain 5 to 9 feet resulting in small craft advisories on the
outer waters.

Monday into Monday Night...Moderate confidence.

Second coastal low moves up the coast through the day with impacts
towards late. Into evening will see increasing areal coverage of
rain along with NE winds. Restrictions to visibility with the wet
weather along with gusts up to 20 kts. Seas maintain 5 to 7 feet.
Small craft advisories continue.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...

Tuesday...Moderate Confidence.

Secondary low lingers with subsequent wind and S swell. Seas may
reach 7 to 8 feet south of Nantucket. Small craft advisories may
need to continue for some waters.

Wednesday into Friday...High Confidence.

High pressure briefly builds over the waters. Mainly quiet
boating weather is expected with winds and seas below Small Craft
Advisory levels.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM EDT this evening for MAZ020-
     022-024.
RI...High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     RIZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Monday
     for ANZ231-251.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for ANZ235-237.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ250-254-255.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/Sipprell
NEAR TERM...Sipprell
SHORT TERM...Sipprell
LONG TERM...Belk
AVIATION...Belk/Sipprell
MARINE...Belk/Sipprell




000
FXUS61 KBOX 221858
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
258 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

 * Near- and Short-Term Forecast Updates only...

Dry tonight into the early-half of Monday before a second area of
low pressure moves up the coast and ushers in wet weather through
Tuesday. A significant warmup will occur Wednesday...continuing
into next weekend. Scattered showers or thunderstorms are possible
from Thursday into the weekend, especially in western sections.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

Rest of today...

Much of the area will remain dry beneath sinking air behind the
departing coastal low into SE Canada. As observed via radar trends
most if not all of the showery weather has concluded. Via satellite
a lot of the low cloud decks have eroded with only some mid to upper
level cloud decks lingering along the leading edge of mid-level
vortex energy and remnant S moist flow.

So only concern towards evening is to the N/W. Can not rule out
that a combination of diurnal forcing along the leading edge of
some mid level vortex energy around the broader trough pattern in
an environment of steep lapse rates up to H7 yields shower and
even possibly thunderstorm activity into the W CT River Valley.
But will hold the activity just N/W outside of our forecast area.
High terrain will be an influencing factor so can not rule out
some development to the immediate N/W over the Berkshires. Just
something to watch out for towards sunset. Chance PoPs accordingly.

Scattered to broken cloud decks continuing with temperatures
topping out around the mid to upper 60s.


Tonight...

An overall quiet forecast period. Initial coastal low lifts NE into
SE Canada as a secondary coastal low emerges off the Mid-Atlantic in
response to N stream energy diving S, cutting off from the main mid-
latitude flow.

Between the two systems looking at scattered to broken cloud decks
with light N winds albeit a bit more brisk over E/SE coastal MA with
the possibility of some drizzle or light showery weather per cold
conveyor belt motions. Dry W with isentropic downsloping NW to SE.
Lows milder E/SE with anticipated socked in conditions, around the
50 degree mark, while mid to upper 40s with partial clearing W.

Otherwise, a high risk of rip currents continues into this evening
along the eastern portions of Cape Cod and Nantucket, as well as
along the south coast, from Bristol County, MA to Westerly, RI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

Monday...

A return of wet weather. Coastal low off the Mid-Atlantic gets wound
up and pulled back, occluding towards the N and W beneath the mid to
upper level low. Will see an increase in wet weather and clouds as a
result of several factors.

The first per a trowaling confluence of conveyor belts as mid-level
vortex energy parent to the mid to upper level low pushes N. Parent
forcing on the increase along with an isallobaric NE wind results in
high-end chance to likely PoPs late.

The second per vortex energy stretched and inverted N of the low
maintaining low level confluence across Upstate NY and PA E into the
CT River Valley. Cooler air aloft yielding steeper lapse rates in an
environment of favorable lift, with any diurnal forcing especially
with sunshine we would likely see some shower activity emerge. Focus
especially along the high terrain with orographic influences upon
convergent flow.

The likely window of partial clearing more likely N and W just prior
to increasing cloud and PoP chances late should allow highs to warm
into the low to mid 70s. Cooler E and SE with increasing NE onshore
flow. Will follow closely to ensemble probabalistics with regards to
PoP chances in such a chaotic pattern that has been poorly handled
by a majority of the forecast guidance.

Monday Night...

Surface low continues to back and occlude beneath the cutoff mid to
upper level low pulling N and across S New England in response. In
its mature to dying phase conveyor belt motions undergo strong
forcing across much of S New England within the comma head of the
low itself. This prior to drier air wrapping into and cutting off
the system.

Likely PoPs warranted early, perhaps diminishing into morning. Will
need to monitor SE New England for the possibility of an elevated
convective setup. Weak instability but strong shear, convective
indicies exceeding respective thresholds, can not rule out a rumble
of thunder for SE communities but have low confidence with regards
to a severe threat with any convection.

Abundance of clouds and moisture with a continued E/NE flow, looking
at lows in the low to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Highlights...

 * Good chance of showers Tuesday
 * Significantly warmer Wednesday into next weekend
 * Scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday into the weekend,
   especially in western sections.

Overview and Model Preferences...

Upper level low pressure passes northeast from the Mid-Atlantic
coast, reaching the Gulf of Maine Tuesday night. By Thursday and
Friday, and continuing into next weekend, a strong upper level
ridge develops over the Mid- Atlantic states...extending northward
into western New England. In general, models are in good agreement
at the upper level features but differ somewhat on timing and
location of possible convection later in the week. All agree on a
major warmup to summertime levels. There will also be increasing
moisture. A warm frontal boundary could provide the focus for
scattered thunderstorms Thursday as it moves northward. Scattered
showers or thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoons
and evenings into the weekend.

Details...

Monday night into Tuesday...

Core of the upper level cold pool moves over southern New England
Mon night into Tue...with -18C at 500 mb...which is cold but not
that extreme. Models are now in better agreement on the track of
surface low pressure, which moves between outer Cape Cod and the
benchmark of 40N 70W on Tue. The ECMWF, which had it moving into
RI, is thus a bit less unstable than it was.

We will need to keep an eye on the possibility of some nocturnal
thunderstorm activity for southeastern MA and RI Mon night.
All models show a rapid influx of unstable air into southeastern
sections between midnight and daybreak Tue. Total Totals
Indices reach 55 and there is an indication of very unstable lapse
rates of 7C from 700-500 mb. 0-6 km bulk shear values increase to
45-55 kts from the south-southeast at that time, too. However,
with cool northeast surface flow, there is no Convective Available
Potential Energy (CAPE). This is not the usual situation to
expect a chance of thunderstorms, but we have veering of wind
with height (WAA) and increasing speeds with height... so, could
see some organized, but scattered and elevated thunderstorms,
especially RI and southeast MA late Mon night.

Scattered showers or an isolated thunderstorm will gradually move
away by Tue evening. Highs Tue will hold in the 65 to 70 range due
to cloud cover and scattered showers.

Wednesday...

Brief ridge of high pressure to our south takes over, leading to
downslope air flow, drier conditions, and more summer-like
temperatures with highs in the lower 80s away from the coast.
There could be sea breezes, but it appears the synoptic flow
could be just strong enough to prevent lower temperatures along
parts of the MA east coast. Cape Cod and the islands, as well as
Cape Ann, however, will likely hold in the upper 60s to lower
70s.

Thursday through Saturday...

On Thursday, 925 temps warm to +21C, so am forecasting mid 80s in
the CT valley and 80-85 elsewhere, cooler at the coast. A warm
front extending eastward from low pressure in western NY may
provide the focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms Thu
afternoon and evening. The GFS shows an axis of 36 K Index,
indicating a lot of moisture and instability, extending eastward
along the MA/CT/RI border by 00z. ECMWF, however, keeps it all to
our west. So will go with chance PoPs for now.

Warm weather with highs in the 80s are expected Friday and
Saturday with a front mainly north of the area. Diurnally-driven
showers and thunderstorms are possible both days, especially
across the western half of southern New England.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Monday Night/...

18z update...

Today and Tonight...High Confidence.

Trying to keep optimistic but surprised as how IFR is lingering
across SE coastal terminals. May remain the norm with NE winds
gusting around 25 kts through the overnight period with the
additional threat of DZ/-RA. Otherwise all other terminals VFR
with light N/NE winds. Low-end VFR cigs. Lesser confidence MVFR.
Also watching N/W terminals only for this afternoon as to the
possibility of SCT SHRA and low risk TSRA.

Monday...Moderate Confidence.

Low-end VFR cigs with MVFR across E/SE coastal terminals. Will
heighten the risk of IFR to moderate keeping it confined to SE
coastal terminals. -SHRA developing late, focus along the S coast
as well as the N/W interior out into the CT River Valley. NE flow
prevailing with gusts up to 20 kts especially over the E/SE coast.

Monday Night...Moderate Confidence.

-RA likely for all terminals. Deteriorating conditions into the
evening hours and prevailing overnight. Mix of MVFR down to LIFR
with NE winds prevailing, gusts upwards of 20 kts especially across
the E/SE coastal terminals. A final note, there is a low risk of
TSRA for SE coastal terminals.

KBOS TAF...Pulling out MVFR and keeping cigs VFR with the low-end
of the spectrum SCT per webcams shortly before 18z. Not much issue
in thinking with landing on the 4`s if that be the case with NE
winds prevailing, gusts up to 15 kts.

KBDL TAF...Becoming SCT and dry and such trends should continue
into the overnight hours. N winds with gusts limited to 15 kts.
Will see a return of low cigs and wet weather late Monday with a
continued downward trend into Monday night.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...

Tuesday...Moderate Confidence.

Scattered showers will continue across the area with NE flow. An
isolated TSRA is also possible. This also suggests low clouds.
Therefore, periods of MVFR/IFR are likely, but it`s possible that
occasional VFR will occur, especially across the interior.

Wednesday...High Confidence. Mainly VFR.

Thursday...Moderate Confidence. Mainly VFR. Scattered MVFR in
scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly west of KLWM-KORH-KIJD.

&&

.MARINE...

Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

3 pm update...

Tonight...High confidence.

Coastal low lifts into SE Canada behind which NE winds diminish.
Seas remain 5 to 9 feet resulting in small craft advisories on the
outer waters.

Monday into Monday Night...Moderate confidence.

Second coastal low moves up the coast through the day with impacts
towards late. Into evening will see increasing areal coverage of
rain along with NE winds. Restrictions to visibility with the wet
weather along with gusts up to 20 kts. Seas maintain 5 to 7 feet.
Small craft advisories continue.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...

Tuesday...Moderate Confidence.

Secondary low lingers with subsequent wind and S swell. Seas may
reach 7 to 8 feet south of Nantucket. Small craft advisories may
need to continue for some waters.

Wednesday into Thursday...High Confidence.

High pressure briefly builds over the waters. Mainly quiet
boating weather is expected with winds and seas below Small Craft
Advisory levels.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...None.
MA...High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM EDT this evening for MAZ020-
     022-024.
RI...High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     RIZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ231>234.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for ANZ235-237.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sipprell/GAF
NEAR TERM...Sipprell
SHORT TERM...Sipprell
LONG TERM...GAF
AVIATION...Sipprell/GAF
MARINE...Sipprell/GAF




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