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000
FXUS61 KBOX 161150
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
750 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ONCE A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW COMES TO AN END EARLY
THIS MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY...BUT SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH FRI. WEAK OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE MAY
BRING A SHOWER OR TWO LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT THEN DRY
THROUGH MON. A COLD FRONT COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS MON NIGHT AND TUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
740 AM UPDATE...

ALL PRECIPITATION HAS NOW EXITED THE COAST. BRIGHT SUNSHINE WAS
PREVAILING ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION EXCEPT CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS...BUT IT SHOULD BREAK OUT THERE BY MID MORNING. THERE WERE
A FEW NARROW BANDS OF CUMULUS CLOUDS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG WIND GUSTS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO MIX
DOWN...WITH 40 MPH AT MANCHESTER NH. WINDS ALOFT ARE ABOUT 40
KNOTS SO EXPECT THAT 40 MPH IS THE HIGHEST WE WILL SEE AT THE
SURFACE. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON.

A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ICY ROADS IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM
THIS MORNING. THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL SPINOUTS...PLEASE DRIVE WITH
CAUTION AS THE RAIN...SNOW...AND SLEET FROM LAST NIGHT HAS FROZEN
OVER IN AREAS WHERE THE TEMPERATURE HIT 32 OR COLDER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EVEN THOUGH MIXING SHOULD BE REASONABLY DEEP...H85 TEMPS WILL BE
DROPPING TO ABOUT -10C. THEREFORE...DESPITE DECENT MID APRIL
SUN...HIGHS TODAY WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK OUT OF THE 40S IN MOST
LOCALES.

ONE FINAL NOTE...REMNANTS OF A 40 KT NW LLJ WILL LIKELY BE TAPPED
SOMEWHAT EARLY TODAY AS WELL...ALTHOUGH IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR
THE MIXING TO EVEN REACH THE H92-H85 LAYER WHERE THIS RESIDES
BEFORE IT EXITS TO THE E THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...IT WILL BE A
BREEZY START...BUT WITH WIND GUSTS GENERALLY CAPPING AT AROUND
30-35 MPH BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES CRESTS OVER THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SKIES TO
REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR AND WINDS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT. THEREFORE...GOOD
SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING IN AN ALREADY SEASONABLY COLD
AIRMASS. EXPECT WITH INVERSIONS MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST TO DROP BELOW FREEZING...WITH SEVERAL AREAS IN THE LOW TO
MID 20S.

THU...
HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL THANKS TO INVERTED RIDGING WITH THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH SLIDING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS SETUP
ALLOWS WINDS TO SHIFT TOWARD THE E-NE THROUGH THE DAY.
THEREFORE...DESPITE A CHANCE FOR TEMPS TO WARM SOMEWHAT WITH H85
TEMPS AROUND -1C E COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN STRUGGLE TO
BREAK OUT OF THE LOW 40S GIVEN SST VALUES THEMSELVES IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S. AT OTHER INTERIOR LOCATIONS TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND TO THE
MID TO UPPER 40S WITH SOME AREAS FINALLY BREAKING BACK INTO THE
50S AS WELL. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT SOME
HIGH CLOUDS MAY SCRAPE S COASTAL LOCATIONS AS AN OCEAN WAVE PASSES
WELL S OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
...HIGHLIGHTS...

* CHILLY THU NIGHT AND UNSEASONABLY COOL NEAR THE COAST FRI
* MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MON
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON NIGHT AND TUE

AN ACTIVE NORTHERN JET STREAM WILL EXIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE
A SEPARATE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW CUTS OFF AND MEANDERS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTHEAST WILL KEEP IT COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH FRI...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST. THEN TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY BRING SHOWERS MON NIGHT AND TUE.

DAILY DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT...

VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
AND RIDGING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT THU NIGHT...BUT NOT QUITE AS CHILLY AS WED
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S EXCEPT MID 30S ISLANDS.

FRIDAY...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD BUT THERE WILL BE
A COOL NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW OVER THE REGION. EXPECT LARGE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES FROM THE COAST TO LOCATIONS FARTHER INLAND.
ACROSS EASTERN MA THE VERY CHILLY OCEAN WATERS WITH SSTS IN THE
LOWER 40S WILL ADVECT THIS VERY COOL AND SHALLOW MARITIME AIRMASS
INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. THEREFORE ONLY EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 40S
OVER EASTERN MA. THE APRIL SUN WILL HAVE MORE OF AN EFFECT IN THE
INTERIOR...WITH MID 50S IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
WAVES. ALL MODELS HAVE WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS SUGGEST IT IS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MAINLY SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. BUT THE ECMWF IS FASTER WITH
A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WHICH KEEPS US DRY WITH THE LOW FAR ENOUGH
OFFSHORE. EXPECT THE REST OF SATURDAY TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY. THE
GFS HAS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COOL POCKET OF AIR
OVERHEAD WHICH COULD LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY
BUT AGAIN OTHER MODELS ARE DRIER. ANYWAY...MUCH ADO ABOUT A SMALL
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION PROVIDING DRY AND
SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER. HIGHS IN THE 50S SUNDAY. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT MAINLY 35-40. HIGHS MON A LITTLE WARMER...IN THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S MONDAY. SUNSHINE WILL FADE BEHIND INCREASING
CLOUDINESS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE
ON THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS IS THAT ANY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO FAR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD EVENING.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION MON NIGHT AND BEGINS TO WASH
OUT OVER THE AREA. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT...WITH GFS FAVORING A MID ATLANTIC LOW
AND THE ECMWF WINDING UP A STORM SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINAS. THE NET
EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COULD SIMPLY BE A BAND OF LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WITH A DECAYING FRONT. STILL LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS
IN THE LOWER 60S TUE DESPITE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOCAL IFR ON CAPE COD
AND NANTUCKET UNTIL 13-14Z THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR EVERYWHERE.
NW WINDS GUST 25-35 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT THEN
DIMINISH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
N...THEN NE BY TOMORROW.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY THRU FRIDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST HALF.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NW GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MID
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A RAPID DECLINE IN WINDS. HOWEVER...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST THE OCEAN
WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY TO TOMORROW FOR SEAS
ALONE. WHICH WILL FALL FROM 7-10 FT TO AN AVERAGE OF 5-7 FT BY
TOMORROW MORNING.

OTHERWISE...E-NE WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN GUST AROUND 25 KT ON THE
SRN WATERS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WOULD BE NEEDED ANYWAY FOR WINDS.

IN ESSENCE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD..SAVE FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT ONCE WINDS RECEDE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU NIGHT THRU FRI...TREND HERE WILL BE DECREASING SOUTHERLY
SWELLS WITH INCREASING ENE WIND WAVES. MAINLY DRY WITH MARITIME
AIRMASS OVER THE WATERS COURTESY OF 1040+ MB HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
NEWFOUNDLAND. OVERALL SEAS STILL 5 TO 7 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTHEAST OF THE
BENCHMARK OF 40N 70W. NORTHEAST WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND SEAS
BEGIN TO VERY SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SEAS FINALLY SUBSIDE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 5 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS. NORTHWEST WINDS
BECOME NORTHEAST AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND...
BUT RELATIVELY LIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SEVERAL POINTS ALONG THE CT RIVER ARE FLOODING OR WILL BE IN MINOR
FLOOD SOON. WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE CT RIVER AT...
THOMPSONVILLE
HARTFORD
MIDDLE HADDAM
MONTAGUE
NORTHAMPTON

OTHER POINTS ALONG THE CT RIVER WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS WATER
CONTINUES TO RUNOFF FROM RAINS OVERNIGHT AND YESTERDAY AS WELL AS
DRAINAGE FROM RAIN AND MELTING SNOW ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. IT
MAY TAKE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK FOR SOME OF THE WATERS TO
RECEDE BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT SOME OF THESE POINTS. ALSO...NOTE
THAT IT IS POSSIBLE SOME OF THESE MAY ALSO REACH MODERATE FLOOD AT
SOME POINT LATER IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WELL BEFORE THEY
RECEDE.

OUTSIDE OF THE CT RIVER...THE PAWCATUCK AT WESTERLY CONTINUES TO
RISE AS WELL AND MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING
LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. BUT GIVEN THERE IS TIME TO MONITOR
THE RESPONSE NO WARNING IS CURRENTLY OUT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ230>234-236-250-251.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ235-237-256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/FIELD
NEAR TERM...DOODY/FIELD
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...FIELD
AVIATION...DOODY/FIELD
MARINE...DOODY/FIELD
HYDROLOGY...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 160853
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
453 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ONCE A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW COMES TO AN END EARLY
THIS MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY...BUT SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH FRI. WEAK OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE MAY
BRING A SHOWER OR TWO LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT THEN DRY
THROUGH MON. A COLD FRONT COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS MON NIGHT AND TUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DUAL POL CC/ZDR PRODUCTS CONTINUES TO SHOW A BAND OF MODERATE TO
EVEN HEAVY SLEET/SNOW PROGRESSING SLOWLY E ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. CURRENT SETUP HAS IT MAINLY IN ERN CT AND THEN THROUGH
MA/RI E OF WORCESTER COUNTY MA. HOWEVER...THE BACK END OF THE DRY
AIR IN THE LOWEST LVLS IS ALSO RAPIDLY PROGRESSING E SUCH THAT
CURRENT TIMING HAS IT REACHING THE CAPE/ISLANDS BY ABOUT 9-10Z OR
SO. SO IT WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THIS DRY AIR AND THE MIXING
LINE ACROSS ERN MA/CT AND RI. HOWEVER GIVEN THE PROGRESSION IT IS
LIKELY MOST AREAS WILL SEE A BRIEF CHANGE OVER TO A WINTRY MIX
BEFORE PRECIP ENDS.

ASIDE FROM THIS...THOSE AREAS WHICH HAVE SEEN SEVERAL HOURS OF
MIXED PRECIP ARE REPORTING SOME SNOWFALL VALUES OF 1.0 TO 2.0+
INCHES OF MIXED SNOW/SLEET. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPERATURES
WHICH ARE CONTINUING TO DECLINE AT OR BELOW FREEZING. WILL BE
ISSUING AN SPS HIGHLIGHTING THE THREAT FOR TREACHEROUS TRAVEL
ACROSS THE AREA EVEN AFTER THE PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED.

WITH THE PRECIP NEARLY FINISHED BY AROUND 10-12Z
EVERYWHERE...EXPECT RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES AS WELL SUCH THAT
SEVERAL AREAS IN WRN MA/CT AND SW NH MAY ACTUALLY BE ABLE TO SEE
THE SUNRISE THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE TODAY...THE TREND WILL BE TOWARD CLEARING SKIES
EVERYWHERE. HOWEVER DESPITE THIS...EVEN THOUGH MIXING SHOULD BE
REASONABLY DEEP...H85 TEMPS WILL BE DROPPING TO ABOUT -10C.
THEREFORE...DESPITE DECENT MID APRIL SUN...HIGHS TODAY WILL
STRUGGLE TO BREAK OUT OF THE 40S IN MOST LOCALES.

ONE FINAL NOTE...REMNANTS OF A 40 KT NW LLJ WILL LIKELY BE TAPPED
SOMEWHAT EARLY TODAY AS WELL...ALTHOUGH IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR
THE MIXING TO EVEN REACH THE H92-H85 LAYER WHERE THIS RESIDES
BEFORE IT EXITS TO THE E THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...IT WILL BE A
BREEZY START...BUT WITH WIND GUSTS GENERALLY CAPPING AT AROUND
30-35 MPH BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES CRESTS OVER THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SKIES TO
REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR AND WINDS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT. THEREFORE...GOOD
SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING IN AN ALREADY SEASONABLY COLD
AIRMASS. EXPECT WITH INVERSIONS MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST TO DROP BELOW FREEZING...WITH SEVERAL AREAS IN THE LOW TO
MID 20S.

THU...
HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL THANKS TO INVERTED RIDGING WITH THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH SLIDING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS SETUP
ALLOWS WINDS TO SHIFT TOWARD THE E-NE THROUGH THE DAY.
THEREFORE...DESPITE A CHANCE FOR TEMPS TO WARM SOMEWHAT WITH H85
TEMPS AROUND -1C E COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN STRUGGLE TO
BREAK OUT OF THE LOW 40S GIVEN SST VALUES THEMSELVES IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S. AT OTHER INTERIOR LOCATIONS TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND TO THE
MID TO UPPER 40S WITH SOME AREAS FINALLY BREAKING BACK INTO THE
50S AS WELL. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT SOME
HIGH CLOUDS MAY SCRAPE S COASTAL LOCATIONS AS AN OCEAN WAVE PASSES
WELL S OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
...HIGHLIGHTS...

* CHILLY THU NIGHT AND UNSEASONABLY COOL NEAR THE COAST FRI
* MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MON
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS MON NIGHT AND TUE

AN ACTIVE NORTHERN JET STREAM WILL EXIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE
A SEPARATE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW CUTS OFF AND MEANDERS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTHEAST WILL KEEP IT COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH FRI...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST. THEN TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY BRING SHOWERS MON NIGHT AND TUE.

DAILY DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT...

VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
AND RIDGING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT THU NIGHT...BUT NOT QUITE AS CHILLY AS WED
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S EXCEPT MID 30S ISLANDS.

FRIDAY...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD BUT THERE WILL BE
A COOL NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW OVER THE REGION. EXPECT LARGE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES FROM THE COAST TO LOCATIONS FARTHER INLAND.
ACROSS EASTERN MA THE VERY CHILLY OCEAN WATERS WITH SSTS IN THE
LOWER 40S WILL ADVECT THIS VERY COOL AND SHALLOW MARITIME AIRMASS
INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. THEREFORE ONLY EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 40S
OVER EASTERN MA. THE APRIL SUN WILL HAVE MORE OF AN EFFECT IN THE
INTERIOR...WITH MID 50S IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
WAVES. ALL MODELS HAVE WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS SUGGEST IT IS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MAINLY SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. BUT THE ECMWF IS FASTER WITH
A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WHICH KEEPS US DRY WITH THE LOW FAR ENOUGH
OFFSHORE. EXPECT THE REST OF SATURDAY TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY. THE
GFS HAS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COOL POCKET OF AIR
OVERHEAD WHICH COULD LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY
BUT AGAIN OTHER MODELS ARE DRIER. ANYWAY...MUCH ADO ABOUT A SMALL
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION PROVIDING DRY AND
SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER. HIGHS IN THE 50S SUNDAY. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT MAINLY 35-40. HIGHS MON A LITTLE WARMER...IN THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S MONDAY. SUNSHINE WILL FADE BEHIND INCREASING
CLOUDINESS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE
ON THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS IS THAT ANY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO FAR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD EVENING.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION MON NIGHT AND BEGINS TO WASH
OUT OVER THE AREA. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON PLACEMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT...WITH GFS FAVORING A MID ATLANTIC LOW
AND THE ECMWF WINDING UP A STORM SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINAS. THE NET
EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COULD SIMPLY BE A BAND OF LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WITH A DECAYING FRONT. STILL LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS
IN THE LOWER 60S TUE DESPITE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.
MIX OF MAINLY MVFR/IFR WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR FROM W TO E THROUGH
12Z. WITH VFR EXPECTED AS PRECIP ENDS. ANY AREAS CURRENTLY RAINING
ALSO EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO A SLEET AND SNOW MIX FOR A BIT BEFORE
ENDING AS WELL...AND TRIED TO TIME THIS AS CLOSE AS POSSIBLE IN
THE TAFS. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT CONTINUE.

AFTER 12Z TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. NW WINDS GUST 20-30 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE
MORNING...BUT THEN DIMINISH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE N...THEN NE BY TOMORROW.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY THRU FRIDAY...VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST HALF.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NW GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MID
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A RAPID DECLINE IN WINDS. HOWEVER...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST THE OCEAN
WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY TO TOMORROW FOR SEAS
ALONE. WHICH WILL FALL FROM 7-10 FT TO AN AVERAGE OF 5-7 FT BY
TOMORROW MORNING.

OTHERWISE...E-NE WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN GUST AROUND 25 KT ON THE
SRN WATERS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WOULD BE NEEDED ANYWAY FOR WINDS.

IN ESSENCE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD..SAVE FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT ONCE WINDS RECEDE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU NIGHT THRU FRI...TREND HERE WILL BE DECREASING SOUTHERLY
SWELLS WITH INCREASING ENE WIND WAVES. MAINLY DRY WITH MARITIME
AIRMASS OVER THE WATERS COURTESY OF 1040+ MB HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
NEWFOUNDLAND. OVERALL SEAS STILL 5 TO 7 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTHEAST OF THE
BENCHMARK OF 40N 70W. NORTHEAST WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND SEAS
BEGIN TO VERY SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SEAS FINALLY SUBSIDE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 5 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS. NORTHWEST WINDS
BECOME NORTHEAST AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND...
BUT RELATIVELY LIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SEVERAL POINTS ALONG THE CT RIVER ARE FLOODING OR WILL BE IN MINOR
FLOOD SOON. WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE CT RIVER AT...
THOMPSONVILLE
HARTFORD
MIDDLE HADDAM
MONTAGUE
NORTHAMPTON

OTHER POINTS ALONG THE CT RIVER WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS WATER
CONTINUES TO RUNOFF FROM RAINS OVERNIGHT AND YESTERDAY AS WELL AS
DRAINAGE FROM RAIN AND MELTING SNOW ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. IT
MAY TAKE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK FOR SOME OF THE WATERS TO
RECEDE BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT SOME OF THESE POINTS. ALSO...NOTE
THAT IT IS POSSIBLE SOME OF THESE MAY ALSO REACH MODERATE FLOOD AT
SOME POINT LATER IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WELL BEFORE THEY
RECEDE.

OUTSIDE OF THE CT RIVER...THE PAWCATUCK AT WESTERLY CONTINUES TO
RISE AS WELL AND MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING
LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. BUT GIVEN THERE IS TIME TO MONITOR
THE RESPONSE NO WARNING IS CURRENTLY OUT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ230>234-236-250-251.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ235-237-256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/FIELD
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...FIELD
AVIATION...DOODY/FIELD
MARINE...DOODY/FIELD
HYDROLOGY...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 160804
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
404 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ONCE A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW COMES TO AN END THIS
MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF DRY...BUT
SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER TO THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A
ROUND OR TWO OF RAIN SHOWERS SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
THEN DRY AND COOLER SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DUAL POL CC/ZDR PRODUCTS CONTINUES TO SHOW A BAND OF MODERATE TO
EVEN HEAVY SLEET/SNOW PROGRESSING SLOWLY E ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. CURRENT SETUP HAS IT MAINLY IN ERN CT AND THEN THROUGH
MA/RI E OF WORCESTER COUNTY MA. HOWEVER...THE BACK END OF THE DRY
AIR IN THE LOWEST LVLS IS ALSO RAPIDLY PROGRESSING E SUCH THAT
CURRENT TIMING HAS IT REACHING THE CAPE/ISLANDS BY ABOUT 9-10Z OR
SO. SO IT WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THIS DRY AIR AND THE MIXING
LINE ACROSS ERN MA/CT AND RI. HOWEVER GIVEN THE PROGRESSION IT IS
LIKELY MOST AREAS WILL SEE A BRIEF CHANGE OVER TO A WINTRY MIX
BEFORE PRECIP ENDS.

ASIDE FROM THIS...THOSE AREAS WHICH HAVE SEEN SEVERAL HOURS OF
MIXED PRECIP ARE REPORTING SOME SNOWFALL VALUES OF 1.0 TO 2.0+
INCHES OF MIXED SNOW/SLEET. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPERATURES
WHICH ARE CONTINUING TO DECLINE AT OR BELOW FREEZING. WILL BE
ISSUING AN SPS HIGHLIGHTING THE THREAT FOR TREACHEROUS TRAVEL
ACROSS THE AREA EVEN AFTER THE PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED.

WITH THE PRECIP NEARLY FINISHED BY AROUND 10-12Z
EVERYWHERE...EXPECT RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES AS WELL SUCH THAT
SEVERAL AREAS IN WRN MA/CT AND SW NH MAY ACTUALLY BE ABLE TO SEE
THE SUNRISE THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE TODAY...THE TREND WILL BE TOWARD CLEARING SKIES
EVERYWHERE. HOWEVER DESPITE THIS...EVEN THOUGH MIXING SHOULD BE
REASONABLY DEEP...H85 TEMPS WILL BE DROPPING TO ABOUT -10C.
THEREFORE...DESPITE DECENT MID APRIL SUN...HIGHS TODAY WILL
STRUGGLE TO BREAK OUT OF THE 40S IN MOST LOCALES.

ONE FINAL NOTE...REMNANTS OF A 40 KT NW LLJ WILL LIKELY BE TAPPED
SOMEWHAT EARLY TODAY AS WELL...ALTHOUGH IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR
THE MIXING TO EVEN REACH THE H92-H85 LAYER WHERE THIS RESIDES
BEFORE IT EXITS TO THE E THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...IT WILL BE A
BREEZY START...BUT WITH WIND GUSTS GENERALLY CAPPING AT AROUND
30-35 MPH BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH PRES CRESTS OVER THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SKIES TO
REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR AND WINDS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT. THEREFORE...GOOD
SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING IN AN ALREADY SEASONABLY COLD
AIRMASS. EXPECT WITH INVERSIONS MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST TO DROP BELOW FREEZING...WITH SEVERAL AREAS IN THE LOW TO
MID 20S.

THU...
HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL THANKS TO INVERTED RIDGING WITH THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH SLIDING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS SETUP
ALLOWS WINDS TO SHIFT TOWARD THE E-NE THROUGH THE DAY.
THEREFORE...DESPITE A CHANCE FOR TEMPS TO WARM SOMEWHAT WITH H85
TEMPS AROUND -1C E COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN STRUGGLE TO
BREAK OUT OF THE LOW 40S GIVEN SST VALUES THEMSELVES IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S. AT OTHER INTERIOR LOCATIONS TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND TO THE
MID TO UPPER 40S WITH SOME AREAS FINALLY BREAKING BACK INTO THE
50S AS WELL. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT SOME
HIGH CLOUDS MAY SCRAPE S COASTAL LOCATIONS AS AN OCEAN WAVE PASSES
WELL S OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY CHILLY WED NIGHT
* DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO FRI AND BECOMING MILDER INLAND
* A PERIOD OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT BUT LOW CONFIDENCE

AN ACTIVE AND SURPRISED NORTHERN STREAM JET THIS PERIOD WILL
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES AT OR COOLER THAN NORMAL ALONG WITH A FEW
CHANCES OF SHOWERS. VERY TYPICAL PATTERN FOR MID APRIL.

DAILY DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

CHILLY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN COLD TEMPS OUTSIDE OF THE
URBAN AREAS WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 20S!

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

STRONG /1044 MB!/ HIGH PRESSURE ADVECTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
THIS WILL EVOLVE INTO A COOL MARITIME AIRMASS FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH LARGE TEMP DIFFERENCES FROM THE COAST TO INLAND. ACROSS
EASTERN MA THE VERY CHILLY OCEAN WATERS WITH SSTS IN THE L40S WILL
ACT LIKE A SNOWCOVER AND ENHANCE THIS COOL MARITIME AIRMASS. CHILLY
ONSHORE WINDS WILL ADVECT THIS VERY COOL AND SHALLOW MARITIME
AIRMASS INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. THEREFORE ONLY EXPECTING HIGHS IN
THE 40S OVER EASTERN MA...MEANWHILE STRONG APRIL SUN HEATS UP THE
INTERIOR INTO THE 50S. AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY FRI WITH HIGHS 45-
50 EASTERN MA AND 55-60 WELL INLAND.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ON AMPLITUDE AND INTERACTION OF NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES. 12Z GFS REMAINS MORE ROBUST AND PHASING
THAN THE 12Z ECMWF. THUS THE GFS IS THE WETTER SOLUTION OF THE TWO.
ENSEMBLES INDICATE MORE STREAM SEPARATION AND ARE SLOWER PHASING THE
STREAMS BUT THIS IS SOMEWHAT TYPICAL GIVEN THE LOWER RESOLUTION OF
THE ENSEMBLES.

TEMPS LIKELY REMAIN NEAR NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY/MONDAY/TUESDAY...

AS EXPECTED LOTS OF TIMING ISSUES HERE GIVEN THE FAST FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STATES. GIVEN THIS FLOW REGIME AND TIME RANGE HERE WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND WHICH YIELDS TEMPS NEAR NORMAL AND A RISK OF
SHOWERS IN THE MON NIGHT/TUE TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.
MIX OF MAINLY MVFR/IFR WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR FROM W TO E THROUGH
12Z. WITH VFR EXPECTED AS PRECIP ENDS. ANY AREAS CURRENTLY RAINING
ALSO EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO A SLEET AND SNOW MIX FOR A BIT BEFORE
ENDING AS WELL...AND TRIED TO TIME THIS AS CLOSE AS POSSIBLE IN
THE TAFS. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT CONTINUE.

AFTER 12Z TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. NW WINDS GUST 20-30 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE
MORNING...BUT THEN DIMINISH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE N...THEN NE BY TOMORROW.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY THRU FRIDAY...VFR VSBYS LIKELY WITH MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE...HIGHEST PROBABILITY ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE BUT
CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW.

SUNDAY...IMPROVING TREND WITH VFR LIKELY ALONG WITH INCREASING NW
WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

NW GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MID
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A RAPID DECLINE IN WINDS. HOWEVER...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST THE OCEAN
WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY TO TOMORROW FOR SEAS
ALONE. WHICH WILL FALL FROM 7-10 FT TO AN AVERAGE OF 5-7 FT BY
TOMORROW MORNING.

OTHERWISE...E-NE WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN GUST AROUND 25 KT ON THE
SRN WATERS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WOULD BE NEEDED ANYWAY FOR WINDS.

IN ESSENCE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD..SAVE FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT ONCE WINDS RECEDE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THU NIGHT THRU FRI...TREND HERE WILL BE DECREASING SOUTHERLY
SWELLS WITH INCREASING ENE WIND WAVES. MAINLY DRY WITH MARITIME
AIRMASS OVER THE WATERS COURTESY OF 1040 MB HIGH ACROSS
NEWFOUNDLAND.

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH LOW PRES
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND ANOTHER FROM THE GREAT LAKES. DILEMMA
WILL BE HOW MUCH SEPARATION BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS OR IF LOWS WILL
MERGE INTO ONE STRONGER SYSTEM. STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY.

SUNDAY...IMPROVING TRENDS WITH LOW PRES STRENGTHENING WELL EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND FOLLOWED BY A MODEST NW WIND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SEVERAL POINTS ALONG THE CT RIVER ARE FLOODING OR WILL BE IN MINOR
FLOOD SOON. WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE CT RIVER AT...
THOMPSONVILLE
HARTFORD
MIDDLE HADDAM
MONTAGUE
NORTHAMPTON

OTHER POINTS ALONG THE CT RIVER WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS WATER
CONTINUES TO RUNOFF FROM RAINS OVERNIGHT AND YESTERDAY AS WELL AS
DRAINAGE FROM RAIN AND MELTING SNOW ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. IT
MAY TAKE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK FOR SOME OF THE WATERS TO
RECEDE BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT SOME OF THESE POINTS. ALSO...NOTE
THAT IT IS POSSIBLE SOME OF THESE MAY ALSO REACH MODERATE FLOOD AT
SOME POINT LATER IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WELL BEFORE THEY
RECEDE.

OUTSIDE OF THE CT RIVER...THE PAWCATUCK AT WESTERLY CONTINUES TO
RISE AS WELL AND MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING
LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. BUT GIVEN THERE IS TIME TO MONITOR
THE RESPONSE NO WARNING IS CURRENTLY OUT.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ230>234-236-250-251.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ235-237-256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DOODY/GAF
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...GAF
AVIATION...DOODY/GAF
MARINE...DOODY/GAF
HYDROLOGY...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 160539
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
139 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHARP COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT WILL BRING A
MIX OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND EVEN A BRIEF CHANGE
TO A WINTRY MIX BEFORE ENDING EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
IMMEDIATE FOLLOWING BRINGING DRY BUT UNSEASONABLE CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THURSDAY INTO
THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY WITH MODERATING AFTERNOON TEMPS INLAND...
BUT REMAINING CHILLY ALONG THE COAST. LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A
ROUND OR TWO OF RAIN SHOWERS SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
THEN DRY AND COOLER SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1 AM UPDATE...
DUAL POL RADAR ZDR/CC SHOWS A VERY DISTINCT TRANSITION TO A MIX OF
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MOVING E ACROSS THE REGION FROM CENTRAL CT
TO ABOUT MHT. SECONDARY WAVE IS MOVING INTO LONG ISLAND AT THIS
TIME AS WELL...SO EXPECT A TRANSITION TO A SHORT PERIOD OF BOTH
SNOW AND SLEET EVERYWHERE BEFORE PRECIP ENDS...WITH SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...ALREADY SEE DRY AIR MOVING IN
RAPIDLY FROM THE W CUTTING OFF THE LOW LVL MOISTURE. HAVE NOTICED
CIGS RISING AS THIS DRY AIR MOVES IN. THEREFORE...FEEL THAT
THROUGH THESE EARLY MORNING HOURS...PRECIP WILL BE RAPIDLY ENDING
FROM W TO E.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS LENDING TO NUMEROUS OBSERVATIONS OF
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WITH ISOLATED GUSTS UP
TO AROUND 50 MPH. THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE RAIN IS LENDING TO
A QUARTER- TO HALF-INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS...NOT SO MUCH AN
ISSUE TOWARDS FLASH FLOODING...BUT ENOUGH OVER THE COURSE OF TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING TO LEND TO RIVER AND URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

THREATS AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS ARE OUTLINED BELOW:

HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING...

FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MULTIPLE POINTS ALONG THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER BASIN WITH THE EXPECTATION OF MINOR RIVER
FLOODING...PERHAPS MODERATE FLOODING AT MIDDLE HADDAM.

SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH ASSOCIATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 1.5-INCHES SURGING NORTH WITH THE AMPLIFYING LOW-LEVEL
FLOW /70-80 KTS PRESENTLY PER WSR-88D VERTICAL WIND PROFILERS/ IS
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH ON THE ORDER OF 3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL.

CONVERGENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LOW-
LEVEL-JET...MOISTURE IS UNDERGOING BOTH FRONTOGENETICAL LIFT AND
STRONG DEEP-LAYER ASCENT BENEATH AN AREA OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE PER RRQ. THIS IS LENDING TO WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS /ESPECIALLY IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER
NJ INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TOWARDS THE BERKSHIRES/.

WHILE RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN ANYWHERE FROM A QUARTER TO HALF-
AN-INCH PER HOUR...THE CUMULATIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE AROUND 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 3 INCHES IN
A TIME-FRAME ROUGHLY AROUND 6-HOURS. THUS THE FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES.

THE BASIS FOR THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES TO BE A FOCUS UPON ALREADY
SWOLLEN RIVERS FROM UPSTREAM SNOWMELT TAKING ON ADDITIONAL WATER
GOING INTO MINOR FLOODING...POSSIBLY INTO MODERATE FLOOD FOR THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER AT MIDDLE HADDAM.

RIVER BASINS OF CONCERN INCLUDE CONNECTICUT/MERRIMACK/PAWCATUCK.
ALSO ANTICIPATE IMPACTS TO LOCAL STREAMS/CREEKS/TRIBUTARIES...
ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT ARE NARROWER AND FLASHIER. THOSE WITH
INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS AND CURRENT WATER LEVELS.

THE FLOOD WATCH ALSO INCLUDES URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE ISSUES FOR
THE DRIVE-HOME COMMUTE PRESENTLY ONGOING FOR ALL ROADWAYS ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. PONDING OF WATER THE BIGGEST CONCERN.

PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW FOR COASTAL FLOOD
THREATS.

WINDS...

SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND OBSERVING
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS /46 MPH/. WSR-88D VERTICAL WIND
PROFILERS SHOWING WINDS AT H925 AMPLIFYING TO 70 KTS. INCREASING
AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AIDING IN THE
PRECIP-DRAG / MECHANICAL MIXING OF FASTER MOMENTUM ALOFT DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. SHOULD SEE THESE WINDS CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. WIND ADVISORIES CONTINUE ACCORDINGLY.

THOSE TRAVELING OVER BRIDGES /THINKING THE SAGAMORE AND BOURNE/
SHOULD BE AWARE OF FIERCE CROSSWINDS. GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALREADY RECEIVING NUMEROUS REPORTS OF TREES AND
WIRES DOWN...BLOWN TRANSFORMERS AND POWER OUTAGES. THESE IMPACTS
AND THREATS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION.

WINTRY MIX/FLASH FREEZE POTENTIAL...

TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS
WINDS BACK OUT OF THE WEST. ALREADY TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ARE
ENCROACHING INTO THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY REGION. EXPECTING THIS
COLD AIR TO SURGE INTO THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
MAINLY AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

CONSIDERING THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND LIFT TO THE REAR OF THE COLD
FRONT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING PRECIPITATION WITHIN
THE SHALLOW COLD-AIR MASS IN THE FORM OF A WINTRY MIX.

THUS A BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO A SNOW/SLEET MIX IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
THE ROUTE-2 CORRIDOR INCORPORATING NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. LIKELY TO SEE AN INCREASE IN LIKELIHOOD
ALONG WESTERN SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT AROUND A TRACE TO PERHAPS A TENTH OR TWO...ENOUGH TO MAKE
FOR SLIPPERY CONDITIONS.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REAR OF THE STORM RESULTING IN THE
BACK EDGE OF PRECIP TO DISSIPATE. THIS DRIER AIR CAN BE SEEN
WITHIN THE MID-LEVELS PER WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY...BUT SHOULD ALSO
SEE THIS DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE. THUS IT IS A QUESTION AS TO
WHETHER WET SURFACES WILL FREEZE AHEAD OF EVAPORATING. EITHER
WHICH WAY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BLACK-ICE AND SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS THAT MAY EXIST FOR THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...

AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE REGION
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANY LEFT OVER PRECIP
SHOULD EXIT THE CAPE/ISLANDS BY MID-MORNING AT THE LATEST AS THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE.

WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH DURING THE
MORNING...BUT WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS AIDED BY
ANOMALOUSLY COLD H85 TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BETWEEN -6C AND
-10C ALLOWING FOR EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING.

THOUGH WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...PLENTY OF STRONG APRIL
SUNSHINE WILL OFFSET COLDER AIR ALOFT TO SOME DEGREE. ALL IN
ALL...MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE HIGHS RECOVER WELL INTO THE
40S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY CHILLY WED NIGHT
* DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO FRI AND BECOMING MILDER INLAND
* A PERIOD OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT BUT LOW CONFIDENCE

AN ACTIVE AND SURPRISED NORTHERN STREAM JET THIS PERIOD WILL
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES AT OR COOLER THAN NORMAL ALONG WITH A FEW
CHANCES OF SHOWERS. VERY TYPICAL PATTERN FOR MID APRIL.

DAILY DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

CHILLY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN COLD TEMPS OUTSIDE OF THE
URBAN AREAS WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 20S!

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

STRONG /1044 MB!/ HIGH PRESSURE ADVECTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
THIS WILL EVOLVE INTO A COOL MARITIME AIRMASS FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH LARGE TEMP DIFFERENCES FROM THE COAST TO INLAND. ACROSS
EASTERN MA THE VERY CHILLY OCEAN WATERS WITH SSTS IN THE L40S WILL
ACT LIKE A SNOWCOVER AND ENHANCE THIS COOL MARITIME AIRMASS. CHILLY
ONSHORE WINDS WILL ADVECT THIS VERY COOL AND SHALLOW MARITIME
AIRMASS INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. THEREFORE ONLY EXPECTING HIGHS IN
THE 40S OVER EASTERN MA...MEANWHILE STRONG APRIL SUN HEATS UP THE
INTERIOR INTO THE 50S. AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY FRI WITH HIGHS 45-
50 EASTERN MA AND 55-60 WELL INLAND.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ON AMPLITUDE AND INTERACTION OF NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES. 12Z GFS REMAINS MORE ROBUST AND PHASING
THAN THE 12Z ECMWF. THUS THE GFS IS THE WETTER SOLUTION OF THE TWO.
ENSEMBLES INDICATE MORE STREAM SEPARATION AND ARE SLOWER PHASING THE
STREAMS BUT THIS IS SOMEWHAT TYPICAL GIVEN THE LOWER RESOLUTION OF
THE ENSEMBLES.

TEMPS LIKELY REMAIN NEAR NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY/MONDAY/TUESDAY...

AS EXPECTED LOTS OF TIMING ISSUES HERE GIVEN THE FAST FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STATES. GIVEN THIS FLOW REGIME AND TIME RANGE HERE WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND WHICH YIELDS TEMPS NEAR NORMAL AND A RISK OF
SHOWERS IN THE MON NIGHT/TUE TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THROUGH 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.
MIX OF MAINLY MVFR/IFR WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR FROM W TO E THROUGH
12Z. WITH VFR EXPECTED AS PRECIP ENDS. ANY AREAS CURRENTLY RAINING
ALSO EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO A SLEET AND SNOW MIX FOR A BIT BEFORE
ENDING AS WELL...AND TRIED TO TIME THIS AS CLOSE AS POSSIBLE IN
THETAFS. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT CONTINUE.

AFTER 12Z TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. NW WINDS GUST 20-30 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE
MORNING...BUT THEN DIMINISH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE N...THEN NE BY TOMORROW.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY THRU FRIDAY...VFR VSBYS LIKELY WITH MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE...HIGHEST PROBABILITY ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE BUT
CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW.

SUNDAY...IMPROVING TREND WITH VFR LIKELY ALONG WITH INCREASING NW
WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

S WINDS OVER THE WATERS GUSTING IN EXCESS OF GALE FORCE THROUGH
THE EVENING WITH WAVES OF 10 TO 12 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. RAIN
AND FOG AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL NET VISIBILITY ISSUES OVER THE
WATERS DOWN TO A MILE OR TWO AT TIMES. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTH WATERS.

COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE WATERS AROUND MIDNIGHT BEHIND WHICH WINDS
WILL BACK OUT OF THE WEST REMAINING GUSTY UP TO 40 KTS. CONDITIONS
CLEARING QUICKLY AS WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WAVE
ENERGY WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH...SO WHILE GALES CONCLUDE...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WED NIGHT THRU FRI...TREND HERE WILL BE DECREASING SOUTHERLY SWELLS
WITH INCREASING ENE WIND WAVES. MAINLY DRY WITH MARITIME AIRMASS
OVER THE WATERS COURTESY OF 1040 MB HIGH ACROSS NEWFOUNDLAND.

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH LOW PRES
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND ANOTHER FROM THE GREAT LAKES. DILEMMA
WILL BE HOW MUCH SEPARATION BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS OR IF LOWS WILL
MERGE INTO ONE STRONGER SYSTEM. STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY.

SUNDAY...IMPROVING TRENDS WITH LOW PRES STRENGTHENING WELL EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND FOLLOWED BY A MODEST NW WIND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS GUSTING 30 TO 40 MPH WILL
YIELD AN AVERAGE 1.5 FOOT SURGE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. COMBINED
WITH HIGH TIDE AROUND 9-10 PM /NOT ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH/...THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SPLASHOVER ALONG LOW-LYING AREAS. A COASTAL
FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED ACCORDINGLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
THREAT AND IMPACTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ002>021-026.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MAZ022>024.
NH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ001>007.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ230>234-236-250-251.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ235-237-256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 160206
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1006 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHARP COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT WILL BRING A
MIX OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND EVEN A BRIEF CHANGE
TO A WINTRY MIX BEFORE ENDING EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
IMMEDIATE FOLLOWING BRINGING DRY BUT UNSEASONABLE CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THURSDAY INTO
THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY WITH MODERATING AFTERNOON TEMPS INLAND...
BUT REMAINING CHILLY ALONG THE COAST. LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A
ROUND OR TWO OF RAIN SHOWERS SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
THEN DRY AND COOLER SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
A COMBINATION OF BOTH LOCAL OBS AND WSR-88D VELOCITY PRODUCTS
SUGGEST COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED FROM NEAR WESTERLY RI TO
NEWBURYPORT MA. THE FRONT HAS SLOWED A BIT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS
AS SECONDARY MID LVL WAVE MOVES NE FROM ARUO0ND THE
DELMARVA...MANIFESTING ITSELF AS ANOTHER AREA OF MOD RAIN. THIS
BAND OF RAIN IS MORE CLOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH A MORE BROAD AREA OF
QG FORCING WITH MID LVL WAVE...AND IS LIKELY TO GRADUALLY LOSE A
BIT OF ITS OVERALL PRECIP-PRODUCING ABILITY AS THE THE COLD FRONT
OUTPACES IT...DRAWING IN DRIER/COLDER AIR. SO...IN ESSENCE...WHILE
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF SRN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...IT SHOULD GRADUALLY DECLINE BOTH
IN INTENSITY AND SPATIALLY.

IN REGARD TO P-TYPE...COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE APPARENT ACROSS
WRN MA/CT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ALTHOUGH MUCH COLDER AIR IS
MOVING IN RAPIDLY AND SEVERAL AREAS ARE REPORTING SNOW/SLEET IN
BERKSHIRE AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES...IT HAS TAKEN MUCH MORE TIME
DRAINING INTO THE CT VALLEY. THEREFORE...EXPECT IT TO TAKE A BIT
BEFORE IT BEGINS TO ACTUALLY SPILL OVER INTO THE REST OF
CT/MA/NH...UNTIL THE COLD LAYER BECOMES DEEP ENOUGH. SO...STILL
EXPECT A CHANGE ALMOST EVERYWHERE AS PRECIP COMES TO AN END...BUT
THIS MAY LIMIT THE ABILITY ACCUM OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR
A WHILE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR AN SPS DUE TO FLASH FREEZING OF
WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS ESPECIALLY IF SOME SLEET/SNOW ACCUMS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS LENDING TO NUMEROUS OBSERVATIONS OF
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WITH ISOLATED GUSTS UP
TO AROUND 50 MPH. THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE RAIN IS LENDING TO
A QUARTER- TO HALF-INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS...NOT SO MUCH AN
ISSUE TOWARDS FLASH FLOODING...BUT ENOUGH OVER THE COURSE OF TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING TO LEND TO RIVER AND URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

THREATS AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS ARE OUTLINED BELOW:

HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING...

FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MULTIPLE POINTS ALONG THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER BASIN WITH THE EXPECTATION OF MINOR RIVER
FLOODING...PERHAPS MODERATE FLOODING AT MIDDLE HADDAM.

SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH ASSOCIATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 1.5-INCHES SURGING NORTH WITH THE AMPLIFYING LOW-LEVEL
FLOW /70-80 KTS PRESENTLY PER WSR-88D VERTICAL WIND PROFILERS/ IS
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH ON THE ORDER OF 3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL.

CONVERGENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LOW-
LEVEL-JET...MOISTURE IS UNDERGOING BOTH FRONTOGENETICAL LIFT AND
STRONG DEEP-LAYER ASCENT BENEATH AN AREA OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE PER RRQ. THIS IS LENDING TO WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS /ESPECIALLY IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER
NJ INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TOWARDS THE BERKSHIRES/.

WHILE RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN ANYWHERE FROM A QUARTER TO HALF-
AN-INCH PER HOUR...THE CUMULATIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE AROUND 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 3 INCHES IN
A TIME-FRAME ROUGHLY AROUND 6-HOURS. THUS THE FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES.

THE BASIS FOR THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES TO BE A FOCUS UPON ALREADY
SWOLLEN RIVERS FROM UPSTREAM SNOWMELT TAKING ON ADDITIONAL WATER
GOING INTO MINOR FLOODING...POSSIBLY INTO MODERATE FLOOD FOR THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER AT MIDDLE HADDAM.

RIVER BASINS OF CONCERN INCLUDE CONNECTICUT/MERRIMACK/PAWCATUCK.
ALSO ANTICIPATE IMPACTS TO LOCAL STREAMS/CREEKS/TRIBUTARIES...
ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT ARE NARROWER AND FLASHIER. THOSE WITH
INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS AND CURRENT WATER LEVELS.

THE FLOOD WATCH ALSO INCLUDES URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE ISSUES FOR
THE DRIVE-HOME COMMUTE PRESENTLY ONGOING FOR ALL ROADWAYS ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. PONDING OF WATER THE BIGGEST CONCERN.

PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW FOR COASTAL FLOOD
THREATS.

WINDS...

SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND OBSERVING
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS /46 MPH/. WSR-88D VERTICAL WIND
PROFILERS SHOWING WINDS AT H925 AMPLIFYING TO 70 KTS. INCREASING
AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AIDING IN THE
PRECIP-DRAG / MECHANICAL MIXING OF FASTER MOMENTUM ALOFT DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. SHOULD SEE THESE WINDS CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. WIND ADVISORIES CONTINUE ACCORDINGLY.

THOSE TRAVELING OVER BRIDGES /THINKING THE SAGAMORE AND BOURNE/
SHOULD BE AWARE OF FIERCE CROSSWINDS. GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALREADY RECEIVING NUMEROUS REPORTS OF TREES AND
WIRES DOWN...BLOWN TRANSFORMERS AND POWER OUTAGES. THESE IMPACTS
AND THREATS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION.

WINTRY MIX/FLASH FREEZE POTENTIAL...

TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS
WINDS BACK OUT OF THE WEST. ALREADY TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ARE
ENCROACHING INTO THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY REGION. EXPECTING THIS
COLD AIR TO SURGE INTO THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
MAINLY AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

CONSIDERING THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND LIFT TO THE REAR OF THE COLD
FRONT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING PRECIPITATION WITHIN
THE SHALLOW COLD-AIR MASS IN THE FORM OF A WINTRY MIX.

THUS A BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO A SNOW/SLEET MIX IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
THE ROUTE-2 CORRIDOR INCORPORATING NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. LIKELY TO SEE AN INCREASE IN LIKELIHOOD
ALONG WESTERN SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT AROUND A TRACE TO PERHAPS A TENTH OR TWO...ENOUGH TO MAKE
FOR SLIPPERY CONDITIONS.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REAR OF THE STORM RESULTING IN THE
BACK EDGE OF PRECIP TO DISSIPATE. THIS DRIER AIR CAN BE SEEN
WITHIN THE MID-LEVELS PER WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY...BUT SHOULD ALSO
SEE THIS DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE. THUS IT IS A QUESTION AS TO
WHETHER WET SURFACES WILL FREEZE AHEAD OF EVAPORATING. EITHER
WHICH WAY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BLACK-ICE AND SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS THAT MAY EXIST FOR THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...

AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE REGION
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANY LEFT OVER PRECIP
SHOULD EXIT THE CAPE/ISLANDS BY MID-MORNING AT THE LATEST AS THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE.

WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH DURING THE
MORNING...BUT WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS AIDED BY
ANOMALOUSLY COLD H85 TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BETWEEN -6C AND
-10C ALLOWING FOR EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING.

THOUGH WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...PLENTY OF STRONG APRIL
SUNSHINE WILL OFFSET COLDER AIR ALOFT TO SOME DEGREE. ALL IN
ALL...MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE HIGHS RECOVER WELL INTO THE
40S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY CHILLY WED NIGHT
* DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO FRI AND BECOMING MILDER INLAND
* A PERIOD OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT BUT LOW CONFIDENCE

AN ACTIVE AND SURPRISED NORTHERN STREAM JET THIS PERIOD WILL
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES AT OR COOLER THAN NORMAL ALONG WITH A FEW
CHANCES OF SHOWERS. VERY TYPICAL PATTERN FOR MID APRIL.

DAILY DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

CHILLY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN COLD TEMPS OUTSIDE OF THE
URBAN AREAS WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 20S!

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

STRONG /1044 MB!/ HIGH PRESSURE ADVECTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
THIS WILL EVOLVE INTO A COOL MARITIME AIRMASS FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH LARGE TEMP DIFFERENCES FROM THE COAST TO INLAND. ACROSS
EASTERN MA THE VERY CHILLY OCEAN WATERS WITH SSTS IN THE L40S WILL
ACT LIKE A SNOWCOVER AND ENHANCE THIS COOL MARITIME AIRMASS. CHILLY
ONSHORE WINDS WILL ADVECT THIS VERY COOL AND SHALLOW MARITIME
AIRMASS INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. THEREFORE ONLY EXPECTING HIGHS IN
THE 40S OVER EASTERN MA...MEANWHILE STRONG APRIL SUN HEATS UP THE
INTERIOR INTO THE 50S. AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY FRI WITH HIGHS 45-
50 EASTERN MA AND 55-60 WELL INLAND.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ON AMPLITUDE AND INTERACTION OF NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES. 12Z GFS REMAINS MORE ROBUST AND PHASING
THAN THE 12Z ECMWF. THUS THE GFS IS THE WETTER SOLUTION OF THE TWO.
ENSEMBLES INDICATE MORE STREAM SEPARATION AND ARE SLOWER PHASING THE
STREAMS BUT THIS IS SOMEWHAT TYPICAL GIVEN THE LOWER RESOLUTION OF
THE ENSEMBLES.

TEMPS LIKELY REMAIN NEAR NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY/MONDAY/TUESDAY...

AS EXPECTED LOTS OF TIMING ISSUES HERE GIVEN THE FAST FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STATES. GIVEN THIS FLOW REGIME AND TIME RANGE HERE WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND WHICH YIELDS TEMPS NEAR NORMAL AND A RISK OF
SHOWERS IN THE MON NIGHT/TUE TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

7 PM UPDATE...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS TAFS. COLD FRONT INTO CT RVR VLY AT
7 PM AND CONTINUING TO MAKE STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESS. EARLIER
DISCUSSION BELOW.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH +RA CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING.
STRONG S WINDS CONTINUING WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS WITH A
FEW LOCATIONS UP TO AROUND 50 KTS /ESPECIALLY FOR E-S MA AND RI/.
LLWS IMPACTS OVER ALL TERMINALS WITH 60-70 KT 2 KFT AGL.

COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE TERMINALS AROUND MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE
WINDS BACK WEST REMAINING GUSTY UP TO 40 KTS. CONDITIONS QUICKLY
IMPROVING TO VFR. MAY SEE RAIN TRANSITION TO SNOW/SLEET BRIEFLY
WITH MINOR ACCUMS. BEST CHANCES OVER NW MA INTO S NH. PRECIP
COMING TO AN END AS WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...VFR VSBYS LIKELY WITH MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE...HIGHEST PROBABILITY ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE BUT
CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW.

SUNDAY...IMPROVING TREND WITH VFR LIKELY ALONG WITH INCREASING NW
WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

S WINDS OVER THE WATERS GUSTING IN EXCESS OF GALE FORCE THROUGH
THE EVENING WITH WAVES OF 10 TO 12 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. RAIN
AND FOG AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL NET VISIBILITY ISSUES OVER THE
WATERS DOWN TO A MILE OR TWO AT TIMES. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTH WATERS.

COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE WATERS AROUND MIDNIGHT BEHIND WHICH WINDS
WILL BACK OUT OF THE WEST REMAINING GUSTY UP TO 40 KTS. CONDITIONS
CLEARING QUICKLY AS WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WAVE
ENERGY WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH...SO WHILE GALES CONCLUDE...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WED NIGHT THRU FRI...TREND HERE WILL BE DECREASING SOUTHERLY SWELLS
WITH INCREASING ENE WIND WAVES. MAINLY DRY WITH MARITIME AIRMASS
OVER THE WATERS COURTESY OF 1040 MB HIGH ACROSS NEWFOUNDLAND.

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH LOW PRES
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND ANOTHER FROM THE GREAT LAKES. DILEMMA
WILL BE HOW MUCH SEPARATION BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS OR IF LOWS WILL
MERGE INTO ONE STRONGER SYSTEM. STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY.

SUNDAY...IMPROVING TRENDS WITH LOW PRES STRENGTHENING WELL EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND FOLLOWED BY A MODEST NW WIND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS GUSTING 30 TO 40 MPH WILL
YIELD AN AVERAGE 1.5 FOOT SURGE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. COMBINED
WITH HIGH TIDE AROUND 9-10 PM /NOT ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH/...THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SPLASHOVER ALONG LOW-LYING AREAS. A COASTAL
FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED ACCORDINGLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
THREAT AND IMPACTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ002>021-026.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ004>007-
     012>024-026.
NH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR RIZ001>007.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ230>234-236-250-
     251.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 152309
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
709 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHARP COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT WILL BRING A
MIX OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND EVEN A BRIEF CHANGE
TO A WINTRY MIX BEFORE ENDING EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
IMMEDIATE FOLLOWING BRINGING DRY BUT UNSEASONABLE CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THURSDAY INTO
THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY WITH MODERATING AFTERNOON TEMPS INLAND...
BUT REMAINING CHILLY ALONG THE COAST. LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A
ROUND OR TWO OF RAIN SHOWERS SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
THEN DRY AND COOLER SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

7 PM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT NOW ENTERING THE CT RVR VLY WITH A SHARP WIND SHIFT TO
THE WEST ALONG WITH FALLING TEMPS. QUITE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH
TEMP OF 61 AT ORE AND 37 AT PSF! WARM SECTOR REMAINS ACROSS
EASTERN MA/RI AND INTO EASTERN CT WITH TEMPS IN THE L60S AWAY FROM
THE SOUTH COAST. DEEP MOISTURE PLUME WITH PWATS UP TO 1.4 INCHES
CENTERED OVER RI AND EASTERN MA...SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD. RAIN
SHIELD HAS BECOME MORE FRAGMENTED WITH TIME HOWEVER HEAVIER
ELEMENTS EMBEDDED IN LARGER RAIN SHIELD. HEAVIER RAIN THREAT WILL
BE FOCUSED ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA UNTIL ABOUT 03Z...WITH DEEP
MOISTURE PLUME MOVING OFFSHORE BY THEN. HOWEVER STRONG Q/G FORCING
FROM UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE MOVING FROM THE MID ATLC REGION
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND 06Z. THIS WILL YIELD LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIP...HOWEVER THE HEAVIER PRECIP SHOULD BE MOVING
OFFSHORE AS LOW LEVEL JET EXITS AS WELL.

COLD AIR ARRIVES IN WESTERN CT/MA 03Z-06Z AND THEN 06Z-09Z EASTERN
MA AND RI. HOWEVER COLUMN DRIES OUT QUICKLY SO ANY SNOW/SLEET
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. NEVERTHELESS COULD HAVE SOME SLICK SPOTS
INLAND DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. PREVIOUS FORECAST CAPTURES THIS
WELL SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. EARLIER
DISCUSSION BELOW
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS LENDING TO NUMEROUS OBSERVATIONS OF
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WITH ISOLATED GUSTS UP
TO AROUND 50 MPH. THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE RAIN IS LENDING TO
A QUARTER- TO HALF-INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS...NOT SO MUCH AN
ISSUE TOWARDS FLASH FLOODING...BUT ENOUGH OVER THE COURSE OF TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING TO LEND TO RIVER AND URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

THREATS AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS ARE OUTLINED BELOW:

HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING...

FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MULTIPLE POINTS ALONG THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER BASIN WITH THE EXPECTATION OF MINOR RIVER
FLOODING...PERHAPS MODERATE FLOODING AT MIDDLE HADDAM.

SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH ASSOCIATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 1.5-INCHES SURGING NORTH WITH THE AMPLIFYING LOW-LEVEL
FLOW /70-80 KTS PRESENTLY PER WSR-88D VERTICAL WIND PROFILERS/ IS
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH ON THE ORDER OF 3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL.

CONVERGENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LOW-
LEVEL-JET...MOISTURE IS UNDERGOING BOTH FRONTOGENETICAL LIFT AND
STRONG DEEP-LAYER ASCENT BENEATH AN AREA OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE PER RRQ. THIS IS LENDING TO WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS /ESPECIALLY IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER
NJ INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TOWARDS THE BERKSHIRES/.

WHILE RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN ANYWHERE FROM A QUARTER TO HALF-
AN-INCH PER HOUR...THE CUMULATIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE AROUND 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 3 INCHES IN
A TIME-FRAME ROUGHLY AROUND 6-HOURS. THUS THE FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES.

THE BASIS FOR THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES TO BE A FOCUS UPON ALREADY
SWOLLEN RIVERS FROM UPSTREAM SNOWMELT TAKING ON ADDITIONAL WATER
GOING INTO MINOR FLOODING...POSSIBLY INTO MODERATE FLOOD FOR THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER AT MIDDLE HADDAM.

RIVER BASINS OF CONCERN INCLUDE CONNECTICUT/MERRIMACK/PAWCATUCK.
ALSO ANTICIPATE IMPACTS TO LOCAL STREAMS/CREEKS/TRIBUTARIES...
ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT ARE NARROWER AND FLASHIER. THOSE WITH
INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS AND CURRENT WATER LEVELS.

THE FLOOD WATCH ALSO INCLUDES URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE ISSUES FOR
THE DRIVE-HOME COMMUTE PRESENTLY ONGOING FOR ALL ROADWAYS ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. PONDING OF WATER THE BIGGEST CONCERN.

PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW FOR COASTAL FLOOD
THREATS.

WINDS...

SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND OBSERVING
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS /46 MPH/. WSR-88D VERTICAL WIND
PROFILERS SHOWING WINDS AT H925 AMPLIFYING TO 70 KTS. INCREASING
AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AIDING IN THE
PRECIP-DRAG / MECHANICAL MIXING OF FASTER MOMENTUM ALOFT DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. SHOULD SEE THESE WINDS CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. WIND ADVISORIES CONTINUE ACCORDINGLY.

THOSE TRAVELING OVER BRIDGES /THINKING THE SAGAMORE AND BOURNE/
SHOULD BE AWARE OF FIERCE CROSSWINDS. GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALREADY RECEIVING NUMEROUS REPORTS OF TREES AND
WIRES DOWN...BLOWN TRANSFORMERS AND POWER OUTAGES. THESE IMPACTS
AND THREATS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION.

WINTRY MIX/FLASH FREEZE POTENTIAL...

TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS
WINDS BACK OUT OF THE WEST. ALREADY TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ARE
ENCROACHING INTO THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY REGION. EXPECTING THIS
COLD AIR TO SURGE INTO THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
MAINLY AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

CONSIDERING THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND LIFT TO THE REAR OF THE COLD
FRONT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING PRECIPITATION WITHIN
THE SHALLOW COLD-AIR MASS IN THE FORM OF A WINTRY MIX.

THUS A BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO A SNOW/SLEET MIX IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
THE ROUTE-2 CORRIDOR INCORPORATING NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. LIKELY TO SEE AN INCREASE IN LIKELIHOOD
ALONG WESTERN SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT AROUND A TRACE TO PERHAPS A TENTH OR TWO...ENOUGH TO MAKE
FOR SLIPPERY CONDITIONS.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REAR OF THE STORM RESULTING IN THE
BACK EDGE OF PRECIP TO DISSIPATE. THIS DRIER AIR CAN BE SEEN
WITHIN THE MID-LEVELS PER WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY...BUT SHOULD ALSO
SEE THIS DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE. THUS IT IS A QUESTION AS TO
WHETHER WET SURFACES WILL FREEZE AHEAD OF EVAPORATING. EITHER
WHICH WAY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BLACK-ICE AND SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS THAT MAY EXIST FOR THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...

AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE REGION
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANY LEFT OVER PRECIP
SHOULD EXIT THE CAPE/ISLANDS BY MID-MORNING AT THE LASTEST AS THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE.

WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH DURING THE
MORNING...BUT WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS AIDED BY
ANOMALOUSLY COLD H85 TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BETWEEN -6C AND
-10C ALLOWING FOR EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING.

THOUGH WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...PLENTY OF STRONG APRIL
SUNSHINE WILL OFFSET COLDER AIR ALOFT TO SOME DEGREE. ALL IN
ALL...MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE HIGHS RECOVER WELL INTO THE
40S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY CHILLY WED NIGHT
* DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO FRI AND BECOMING MILDER INLAND
* A PERIOD OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT BUT LOW CONFIDENCE

AN ACTIVE AND SURPRESSED NORTHERN STREAM JET THIS PERIOD WILL RESULT
IN TEMPERATURES AT OR COOLER THAN NORMAL ALONG WITH A FEW CHANCES OF
SHOWERS. VERY TYPICAL PATTERN FOR MID APRIL.

DAILY DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

CHILLY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN COLD TEMPS OUTSIDE OF THE
URBAN AREAS WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 20S!

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

STRONG /1044 MB!/ HIGH PRESSURE ADVECTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
THIS WILL EVOLVE INTO A COOL MARITIME AIRMASS FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH LARGE TEMP DIFFERENCES FROM THE COAST TO INLAND. ACROSS
EASTERN MA THE VERY CHILLY OCEAN WATERS WITH SSTS IN THE L40S WILL
ACT LIKE A SNOWCOVER AND ENHANCE THIS COOL MARITIME AIRMASS. CHILLY
ONSHORE WINDS WILL ADVECT THIS VERY COOL AND SHALLOW MARITIME
AIRMASS INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. THEREFORE ONLY EXPECTING HIGHS IN
THE 40S OVER EASTERN MA...MEANWHILE STRONG APRIL SUN HEATS UP THE
INTERIOR INTO THE 50S. AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY FRI WITH HIGHS 45-
50 EASTERN MA AND 55-60 WELL INLAND.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ON AMPLITUDE AND INTERACTION OF NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES. 12Z GFS REMAINS MORE ROBUST AND PHASING
THAN THE 12Z ECMWF. THUS THE GFS IS THE WETTER SOLUTION OF THE TWO.
ENSEMBLES INDICATE MORE STREAM SEPARATION AND ARE SLOWER PHASING THE
STREAMS BUT THIS IS SOMEWHAT TYPICAL GIVEN THE LOWER RESOLUTION OF
THE ENSEMBLES.

TEMPS LIKELY REMAIN NEAR NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY/MONDAY/TUESDAY...

AS EXPECTED LOTS OF TIMING ISSUES HERE GIVEN THE FAST FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STATES. GIVEN THIS FLOW REGIME AND TIME RANGE HERE WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND WHICH YIELDS TEMPS NEAR NORMAL AND A RISK OF
SHOWERS IN THE MON NIGHT/TUE TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

7 PM UPDATE...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS TAFS. COLD FRONT INTO CT RVR VLY AT
7 PM AND CONTINUING TO MAKE STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESS. EARLIER
DISCUSSION BELOW.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH +RA CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING.
STRONG S WINDS CONTINUING WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS WITH A
FEW LOCATIONS UP TO AROUND 50 KTS /ESPECIALLY FOR E-S MA AND RI/.
LLWS IMPACTS OVER ALL TERMINALS WITH 60-70 KT 2 KFT AGL.

COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE TERMINALS AROUND MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE
WINDS BACK WEST REMAINING GUSTY UP TO 40 KTS. CONDITIONS QUICKLY
IMPROVING TO VFR. MAY SEE RAIN TRANSITION TO SNOW/SLEET BRIEFLY
WITH MINOR ACCUMS. BEST CHANCES OVER NW MA INTO S NH. PRECIP
COMING TO AN END AS WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...VFR VSBYS LIKELY WITH MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE...HIGHEST PROBABILITY ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE BUT
CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW.

SUNDAY...IMPROVING TREND WITH VFR LIKELY ALONG WITH INCREASING NW
WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

S WINDS OVER THE WATERS GUSTING IN EXCESS OF GALE FORCE THROUGH
THE EVENING WITH WAVES OF 10 TO 12 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. RAIN
AND FOG AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL NET VISIBILITY ISSUES OVER THE
WATERS DOWN TO A MILE OR TWO AT TIMES. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTH WATERS.

COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE WATERS AROUND MIDNIGHT BEHIND WHICH WINDS
WILL BACK OUT OF THE WEST REMAINING GUSTY UP TO 40 KTS. CONDITIONS
CLEARING QUICKLY AS WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WAVE
ENERGY WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH...SO WHILE GALES CONCLUDE...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WED NIGHT THRU FRI...TREND HERE WILL BE DECREASING SOUTHERLY SWELLS
WITH INCREASING ENE WIND WAVES. MAINLY DRY WITH MARITIME AIRMASS
OVER THE WATERS COURTSEY OF 1040 MB HIGH ACROSS NEWFOUNDLAND.

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH LOW PRES
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND ANOTHER FROM THE GREAT LAKES. DILEMMA
WILL BE HOW MUCH SEPARATION BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS OR IF LOWS WILL
MERGE INTO ONE STRONGER SYSTEM. STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY.

SUNDAY...IMPROVING TRENDS WITH LOW PRES STRENGTHENING WELL EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND FOLLOWED BY A MODEST NW WIND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS GUSTING 30 TO 40 MPH WILL
YIELD AN AVERAGE 1.5 FOOT SURGE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. COMBINED
WITH HIGH TIDE AROUND 9-10 PM /NOT ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH/...THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SPLASHOVER ALONG LOW-LYING AREAS. A COASTAL
FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED ACCORDINGLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
THREAT AND IMPACTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MAZ002>021-026.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ004>007-
     012>024-026.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR RIZ001>007.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ230>234-236-250-
     251.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RMT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 152032
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
432 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SHARP COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT WILL BRING A
MIX OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND EVEN A BRIEF CHANGE
TO A WINTRY MIX BEFORE ENDING EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
IMMEDIATE FOLLOWING BRINGING DRY BUT UNSEASONABLE CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THURSDAY INTO
THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY WITH MODERATING AFTERNOON TEMPS INLAND...
BUT REMAINING CHILLY ALONG THE COAST. LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A
ROUND OR TWO OF RAIN SHOWERS SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
THEN DRY AND COOLER SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

430 PM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS LENDING TO NUMEROUS OBSERVATIONS OF
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WITH ISOLATED GUSTS UP
TO AROUND 50 MPH. THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE RAIN IS LENDING TO
A QUARTER- TO HALF-INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS...NOT SO MUCH AN
ISSUE TOWARDS FLASH FLOODING...BUT ENOUGH OVER THE COURSE OF TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING TO LEND TO RIVER AND URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

THREATS AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS ARE OUTLINED BELOW:

HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING...

FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MULTIPLE POINTS ALONG THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER BASIN WITH THE EXPECTATION OF MINOR RIVER
FLOODING...PERHAPS MODERATE FLOODING AT MIDDLE HADDAM.

SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH ASSOCIATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 1.5-INCHES SURGING NORTH WITH THE AMPLIFYING LOW-LEVEL
FLOW /70-80 KTS PRESENTLY PER WSR-88D VERTICAL WIND PROFILERS/ IS
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH ON THE ORDER OF 3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL.

CONVERGENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LOW-
LEVEL-JET...MOISTURE IS UNDERGOING BOTH FRONTOGENETICAL LIFT AND
STRONG DEEP-LAYER ASCENT BENEATH AN AREA OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE PER RRQ. THIS IS LENDING TO WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS /ESPECIALLY IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER
NJ INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TOWARDS THE BERKSHIRES/.

WHILE RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN ANYWHERE FROM A QUARTER TO HALF-
AN-INCH PER HOUR...THE CUMULATIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE AROUND 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 3 INCHES IN
A TIME-FRAME ROUGHLY AROUND 6-HOURS. THUS THE FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES.

THE BASIS FOR THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES TO BE A FOCUS UPON ALREADY
SWOLLEN RIVERS FROM UPSTREAM SNOWMELT TAKING ON ADDITIONAL WATER
GOING INTO MINOR FLOODING...POSSIBLY INTO MODERATE FLOOD FOR THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER AT MIDDLE HADDAM.

RIVER BASINS OF CONCERN INCLUDE CONNECTICUT/MERRIMACK/PAWCATUCK.
ALSO ANTICIPATE IMPACTS TO LOCAL STREAMS/CREEKS/TRIBUTARIES...
ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT ARE NARROWER AND FLASHIER. THOSE WITH
INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS AND CURRENT WATER LEVELS.

THE FLOOD WATCH ALSO INCLUDES URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE ISSUES FOR
THE DRIVE-HOME COMMUTE PRESENTLY ONGOING FOR ALL ROADWAYS ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. PONDING OF WATER THE BIGGEST CONCERN.

PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW FOR COASTAL FLOOD
THREATS.

WINDS...

SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND OBSERVING
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS /46 MPH/. WSR-88D VERTICAL WIND
PROFILERS SHOWING WINDS AT H925 AMPLIFYING TO 70 KTS. INCREASING
AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AIDING IN THE
PRECIP-DRAG / MECHANICAL MIXING OF FASTER MOMENTUM ALOFT DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. SHOULD SEE THESE WINDS CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. WIND ADVISORIES CONTINUE ACCORDINGLY.

THOSE TRAVELING OVER BRIDGES /THINKING THE SAGAMORE AND BOURNE/
SHOULD BE AWARE OF FIERCE CROSSWINDS. GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALREADY RECEIVING NUMEROUS REPORTS OF TREES AND
WIRES DOWN...BLOWN TRANSFORMERS AND POWER OUTAGES. THESE IMPACTS
AND THREATS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION.

WINTRY MIX/FLASH FREEZE POTENTIAL...

TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS
WINDS BACK OUT OF THE WEST. ALREADY TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ARE
ENCROACHING INTO THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY REGION. EXPECTING THIS
COLD AIR TO SURGE INTO THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
MAINLY AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

CONSIDERING THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND LIFT TO THE REAR OF THE COLD
FRONT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING PRECIPITATION WITHIN
THE SHALLOW COLD-AIR MASS IN THE FORM OF A WINTRY MIX.

THUS A BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO A SNOW/SLEET MIX IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
THE ROUTE-2 CORRIDOR INCORPORATING NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. LIKELY TO SEE AN INCREASE IN LIKELIHOOD
ALONG WESTERN SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT AROUND A TRACE TO PERHAPS A TENTH OR TWO...ENOUGH TO MAKE
FOR SLIPPERY CONDITIONS.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REAR OF THE STORM RESULTING IN THE
BACK EDGE OF PRECIP TO DISSIPATE. THIS DRIER AIR CAN BE SEEN
WITHIN THE MID-LEVELS PER WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY...BUT SHOULD ALSO
SEE THIS DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE. THUS IT IS A QUESTION AS TO
WHETHER WET SURFACES WILL FREEZE AHEAD OF EVAPORATING. EITHER
WHICH WAY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BLACK-ICE AND SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS THAT MAY EXIST FOR THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...

AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE REGION
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANY LEFT OVER PRECIP
SHOULD EXIT THE CAPE/ISLANDS BY MID-MORNING AT THE LASTEST AS THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE.

WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH DURING THE
MORNING...BUT WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS AIDED BY
ANOMALOUSLY COLD H85 TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BETWEEN -6C AND
-10C ALLOWING FOR EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING.

THOUGH WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...PLENTY OF STRONG APRIL
SUNSHINE WILL OFFSET COLDER AIR ALOFT TO SOME DEGREE. ALL IN
ALL...MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE HIGHS RECOVER WELL INTO THE
40S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY CHILLY WED NIGHT
* DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO FRI AND BECOMING MILDER INLAND
* A PERIOD OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT BUT LOW CONFIDENCE

AN ACTIVE AND SURPRESSED NORTHERN STREAM JET THIS PERIOD WILL RESULT
IN TEMPERATURES AT OR COOLER THAN NORMAL ALONG WITH A FEW CHANCES OF
SHOWERS. VERY TYPICAL PATTERN FOR MID APRIL.

DAILY DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

CHILLY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN COLD TEMPS OUTSIDE OF THE
URBAN AREAS WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 20S!

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

STRONG /1044 MB!/ HIGH PRESSURE ADVECTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
THIS WILL EVOLVE INTO A COOL MARITIME AIRMASS FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH LARGE TEMP DIFFERENCES FROM THE COAST TO INLAND. ACROSS
EASTERN MA THE VERY CHILLY OCEAN WATERS WITH SSTS IN THE L40S WILL
ACT LIKE A SNOWCOVER AND ENHANCE THIS COOL MARITIME AIRMASS. CHILLY
ONSHORE WINDS WILL ADVECT THIS VERY COOL AND SHALLOW MARITIME
AIRMASS INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. THEREFORE ONLY EXPECTING HIGHS IN
THE 40S OVER EASTERN MA...MEANWHILE STRONG APRIL SUN HEATS UP THE
INTERIOR INTO THE 50S. AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY FRI WITH HIGHS 45-
50 EASTERN MA AND 55-60 WELL INLAND.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ON AMPLITUDE AND INTERACTION OF NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES. 12Z GFS REMAINS MORE ROBUST AND PHASING
THAN THE 12Z ECMWF. THUS THE GFS IS THE WETTER SOLUTION OF THE TWO.
ENSEMBLES INDICATE MORE STREAM SEPARATION AND ARE SLOWER PHASING THE
STREAMS BUT THIS IS SOMEWHAT TYPICAL GIVEN THE LOWER RESOLUTION OF
THE ENSEMBLES.

TEMPS LIKELY REMAIN NEAR NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY/MONDAY/TUESDAY...

AS EXPECTED LOTS OF TIMING ISSUES HERE GIVEN THE FAST FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STATES. GIVEN THIS FLOW REGIME AND TIME RANGE HERE WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND WHICH YIELDS TEMPS NEAR NORMAL AND A RISK OF
SHOWERS IN THE MON NIGHT/TUE TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH +RA CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING.
STRONG S WINDS CONTINUING WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS WITH A
FEW LOCATIONS UP TO AROUND 50 KTS /ESPECIALLY FOR E-S MA AND RI/.
LLWS IMPACTS OVER ALL TERMINALS WITH 60-70 KT 2 KFT AGL.

COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE TERMINALS AROUND MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE
WINDS BACK WEST REMAINING GUSTY UP TO 40 KTS. CONDITIONS QUICKLY
IMPROVING TO VFR. MAY SEE RAIN TRANSITION TO SNOW/SLEET BRIEFLY
WITH MINOR ACCUMS. BEST CHANCES OVER NW MA INTO S NH. PRECIP
COMING TO AN END AS WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...VFR VSBYS LIKELY WITH MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE...HIGHEST PROBABILITY ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE BUT
CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW.

SUNDAY...IMPROVING TREND WITH VFR LIKELY ALONG WITH INCREASING NW
WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

S WINDS OVER THE WATERS GUSTING IN EXCESS OF GALE FORCE THROUGH
THE EVENING WITH WAVES OF 10 TO 12 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. RAIN
AND FOG AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL NET VISIBILITY ISSUES OVER THE
WATERS DOWN TO A MILE OR TWO AT TIMES. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTH WATERS.

COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE WATERS AROUND MIDNIGHT BEHIND WHICH WINDS
WILL BACK OUT OF THE WEST REMAINING GUSTY UP TO 40 KTS. CONDITIONS
CLEARING QUICKLY AS WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WAVE
ENERGY WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH...SO WHILE GALES CONCLUDE...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WED NIGHT THRU FRI...TREND HERE WILL BE DECREASING SOUTHERLY SWELLS
WITH INCREASING ENE WIND WAVES. MAINLY DRY WITH MARITIME AIRMASS
OVER THE WATERS COURTSEY OF 1040 MB HIGH ACROSS NEWFOUNDLAND.

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH LOW PRES
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND ANOTHER FROM THE GREAT LAKES. DILEMMA
WILL BE HOW MUCH SEPARATION BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS OR IF LOWS WILL
MERGE INTO ONE STRONGER SYSTEM. STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY.

SUNDAY...IMPROVING TRENDS WITH LOW PRES STRENGTHENING WELL EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND FOLLOWED BY A MODEST NW WIND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS GUSTING 30 TO 40 MPH WILL
YIELD AN AVERAGE 1.5 FOOT SURGE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. COMBINED
WITH HIGH TIDE AROUND 9-10 PM /NOT ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH/...THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SPLASHOVER ALONG LOW-LYING AREAS. A COASTAL
FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED ACCORDINGLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
THREAT AND IMPACTS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MAZ002>021-026.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ004>007-
     012>024-026.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR RIZ001>007.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ230>234-236-250-
     251.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 151950
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
350 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS...SOAKING RAIN...AND
POSSIBLY EVEN A BRIEF CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX BEFORE ENDING DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL BRING
DRY BUT UNSEASONABLE CHILLY AIR TO THE REGION WED/WED NIGHT. DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES THU INTO THE FIRST PART OF FRI WITH MODERATING
AFTERNOON TEMPS INLAND...BUT REMAINING CHILLY ALONG THE COAST. LOW
PRESSURE MAY BRING A ROUND OR TWO OF RAIN SHOWERS SOMETIME FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT...THEN DRY AND COOLER SUNDAY/MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
200 PM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH STRONG LIFT AND DYNAMICS COMING
TOGETHER ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BEGINNING TO SEE AN AREAL
INCREASE IN RAIN COVERAGE WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. H925 WINDS FROM VERTICAL WIND PROFILERS VIA
WSR-88D SHOWING ENHANCING S-WINDS OF 60-70 KTS. WILL LIKELY SEE AN
INCREASE IN IMPACTS DUE TO THE ATTRIBUTABLE THREATS OUTLINED
BELOW:

HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING...

FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MULTIPLE POINTS ALONG THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER BASIN WITH THE EXPECTATION OF MINOR RIVER
FLOODING...PERHAPS MODERATE FLOODING AT MIDDLE HADDAM. AN AREAL
FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF RI AND THE SURROUNDING
AREA.

EARLIER...THE SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH NOTED ANOMALOUS DEEP
MOISTURE SURGING NORTH FROM THE GULF ON THE ORDER OF 3-4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WHILE WPC PUT OUT A SLIGHT RISK TO THE
WEST OF THE REGION OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING.
LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS HIGHLIGHTS A SURGE OF 1.5 INCH PWATS INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COLLOCATED WITH STRONG CONVERGENT H85
MOISTURE TRANSPORT.

COUPLING WITH AN AMPLIFYING LLJ ALREADY OBSERVED BY THE EARLIER
MENTIONED VERTICAL WIND PROFILERS THE CONVERGENT NOSE OF WHICH
LIES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BENEATH THE RRQ OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
JET...AND CONSIDERING THE APPROACH OF A SHARP COLD FRONT AND DEEP
FRONTOGENETICAL LIFT...AND YOU HAVE A PRETTY GOOD SETUP FOR HEAVY
RAIN AND FLOODING. CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AND MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES...AND THERE IS SOME CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY TO WARRANT THE
THREAT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

THUS THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES WITH THE EXPECTATIONS AS OUTLINED
ABOVE. AVERAGE STORM-TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST AROUND 2
INCHES AND EXPECT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF AROUND 3 INCHES IN A
TIMEFRAME OF AROUND 6-HOURS.

THE BASIS FOR THE FLOOD WATCH IS DUE TO ALREADY SWOLLEN RIVERS
FROM UPSTREAM SNOWMELT TAKING ON ADDITIONAL WATER AND LIKELY GOING
INTO MINOR FLOOD...POSSIBLY INTO MODERATE FLOOD. RIVER BASINS OF
CONCERN INCLUDE CONNECTICUT/MERRIMACK/PAWCATUCK. ALSO ANTICIPATE
IMPACTS TO LOCAL STREAMS/CREEKS/TRIBUTARIES...ESPECIALLY THOSE
THAT ARE NARROWER AND FLASHIER. THOSE WITH INTERESTS ALONG AREA
RIVERS SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AND CURRENT
WATER LEVELS.

THE FLOOD WATCH ALSO INCLUDES URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE ISSUES THE
HEIGHT OF WHICH WILL CENTER AROUND THE DRIVE-HOME COMMUTE FOR MOST
ROADWAYS THROUGHOUT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CONCERNED FOR THE I-91
CORRIDOR SURROUNDING SPRINGFIELD MA AND HARTFORD CT...AS WELL AS
THE I-95/I-195 CORRIDORS AROUND BOSTON AND PROVIDENCE...EVEN OUT
I-90 INCORPORATING WORCESTER. PONDING OF WATER ALONG AREA ROADWAYS
WILL LIKELY BE A BIG ISSUE TO AREA TRAFFIC.

PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW FOR COASTAL FLOOD
THREATS.

WINDS...

SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND OBSERVING
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS /46 MPH/. WSR-88D VERTICAL WIND
PROFILERS SHOWING WINDS AT H925 AMPLIFYING TO 70 KTS. INCREASING
AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AIDING IN THE
PRECIP-DRAG / MECHANICAL MIXING OF FASTER MOMENTUM ALOFT DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. SHOULD SEE THESE WINDS CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. WIND ADVISORIES CONTINUE ACCORDINGLY. ANY HIGH-WINDS TO
WHICH WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR WILL BE HANDLED WITH SHORT-FUSED
WARNINGS.

THOSE TRAVELING OVER BRIDGES /THINKING THE SAGAMORE AND BOURNE/
SHOULD BE AWARE OF FIERCE CROSSWINDS. GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALREADY RECEIVING NUMEROUS REPORTS OF TREES AND
WIRES DOWN...BLOWN TRANSFORMERS AND POWER OUTAGES. THESE IMPACTS
AND THREATS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION.

WINTRY MIX/FLASH FREEZE POTENTIAL...

TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
CONSIDERING THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RRQ
OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET ACROSS AND TO THE REAR OF THE FRONT...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE
SHALLOW COLD-AIR MASS.

THUS THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO A
SNOW/SLEET MIX...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF N MA AND S NH ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE ROUTE 2 CORRIDOR. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT
AROUND A TRACE TO PERHAPS A TENTH OR TWO...ENOUGH TO MAKE FOR
SLIPPERY CONDITIONS.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REAR OF THE STORM RESULTING IN THE
BACK EDGE OF PRECIP TO DISSIPATE. SHOULD ALSO SEE THIS DRY AIR AT
THE SURFACE. THUS IT IS A QUESTION AS TO WHETHER WET SURFACES FROM
THE RAIN WILL FREEZE AHEAD OF EVAPORATING. EITHER WHICH WAY...THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BLACK-ICE AND SLIPPERY CONDITIONS THAT MAY
EXIST FOR THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...

AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE REGION
AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANY LEFT OVER
PRECIPITATION SHOULD HAVE EXITED THE CAPE/ISLANDS BY EARLY TO MID
MORNING...AS THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE.

NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH DURING THE
MORNING...BUT WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOMALOUS 850
MB TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BETWEEN -6C AND -10C ARE EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...PLENTY OF STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE WILL OFFSET THIS TO SOME
DEGREE. ALL IN ALL...MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE HIGHS RECOVER
WELL INTO THE 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY CHILLY WED NIGHT
* DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO FRI AND BECOMING MILDER INLAND
* A PERIOD OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT BUT LOW CONFIDENCE

AN ACTIVE AND SURPRESSED NORTHERN STREAM JET THIS PERIOD WILL RESULT
IN TEMPERATURES AT OR COOLER THAN NORMAL ALONG WITH A FEW CHANCES OF
SHOWERS. VERY TYPICAL PATTERN FOR MID APRIL.

DAILY DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

CHILLY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN COLD TEMPS OUTSIDE OF THE
URBAN AREAS WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 20S!

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

STRONG /1044 MB!/ HIGH PRESSURE ADVECTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
THIS WILL EVOLVE INTO A COOL MARITIME AIRMASS FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH LARGE TEMP DIFFERENCES FROM THE COAST TO INLAND. ACROSS
EASTERN MA THE VERY CHILLY OCEAN WATERS WITH SSTS IN THE L40S WILL
ACT LIKE A SNOWCOVER AND ENHANCE THIS COOL MARITIME AIRMASS. CHILLY
ONSHORE WINDS WILL ADVECT THIS VERY COOL AND SHALLOW MARITIME
AIRMASS INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. THEREFORE ONLY EXPECTING HIGHS IN
THE 40S OVER EASTERN MA...MEANWHILE STRONG APRIL SUN HEATS UP THE
INTERIOR INTO THE 50S. AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY FRI WITH HIGHS 45-
50 EASTERN MA AND 55-60 WELL INLAND.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ON AMPLITUDE AND INTERACTION OF NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES. 12Z GFS REMAINS MORE ROBUST AND PHASING
THAN THE 12Z ECMWF. THUS THE GFS IS THE WETTER SOLUTION OF THE TWO.
ENSEMBLES INDICATE MORE STREAM SEPARATION AND ARE SLOWER PHASING THE
STREAMS BUT THIS IS SOMEWHAT TYPICAL GIVEN THE LOWER RESOLUTION OF
THE ENSEMBLES.

TEMPS LIKELY REMAIN NEAR NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE 50S.

SUNDAY/MONDAY/TUESDAY...

AS EXPECTED LOTS OF TIMING ISSUES HERE GIVEN THE FAST FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN STATES. GIVEN THIS FLOW REGIME AND TIME RANGE HERE WILL
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND WHICH YIELDS TEMPS NEAR NORMAL AND A RISK OF
SHOWERS IN THE MON NIGHT/TUE TIME FRAME.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH CIGS/VSBYS FALLING IFR-VLIFR WITH
+RA TOWARDS CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING PERIOD. POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TSRA BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY WILL NOT MENTION IN TAF. STRONG
S-WINDS WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS FOR S/E TERMINALS. DESPITE
THIS...WILL SEE LLWS IMPACTS OVER ALL TERMINALS AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS
ARE AMPLIFYING TO 60-70 KT 2 KFT AGL.

COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE TERMINALS AROUND MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE
WINDS BACK WEST REMAINING GUSTY UP TO 40 KTS. CONDITIONS QUICKLY
IMPROVING TO VFR. MAY SEE RAIN TRANSITION TO SNOW/SLEET BRIEFLY
WITH MINOR ACCUMS. BEST CHANCES OVER NW MA INTO S NH.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...VFR VSBYS LIKELY WITH MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE...HIGHEST PROBABILITY ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE BUT
CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW.

SUNDAY...IMPROVING TREND WITH VFR LIKELY ALONG WITH INCREASING NW
WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

S-SW WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY SUCH THAT GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY BY THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THIS THREAT. THESE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W-NW EARLY WED MORNING BUT CONTINUE WITH
GALE FORCE GUSTS UNTIL THEY SUBSIDE BY MID MORNING WED.

SOME HEAVY RAIN/FOG AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL.

SEAS INCREASE TO 10-12 FT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

WED NIGHT THRU FRI...TREND HERE WILL BE DECREASING SOUTHERLY SWELLS
WITH INCREASING ENE WIND WAVES. MAINLY DRY WITH MARITIME AIRMASS
OVER THE WATERS COURTSEY OF 1040 MB HIGH ACROSS NEWFOUNDLAND.

FRI NIGHT AND SAT...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH LOW PRES
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND ANOTHER FROM THE GREAT LAKES. DILEMMA
WILL BE HOW MUCH SEPARATION BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS OR IF LOWS WILL
MERGE INTO ONE STRONGER SYSTEM. STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY.

SUNDAY...IMPROVING TRENDS WITH LOW PRES STRENGTHENING WELL EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND FOLLOWED BY A MODEST NW WIND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS GUSTING 30 TO 40 MPH WILL
YIELD AN AVERAGE 1.5 FOOT SURGE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. COMBINED
WITH HIGH TIDE AROUND 9-10 PM /NOT ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH/...THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SPLASHOVER ALONG LOW-LYING AREAS...BUT AT
THIS PRESENT TIME WE ARE NOT CONSIDERING MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MAZ002>021-026.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ004>007-
     012>024-026.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR RIZ001>007.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ230>234-236-250-
     251.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ254-255.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...SIPPRELL
MARINE...NOCERA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RMT




000
FXUS61 KBOX 151803
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
203 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A MIX OF GUSTY WINDS...SOAKING
RAIN...AND POSSIBLY EVEN A BRIEF CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX BEFORE
ENDING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN WILL BRING DRY BUT UNSEASONABLE CHILLY AIR TO THE
REGION WED/WED NIGHT. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THU INTO THE FIRST
PART OF FRI WITH MODERATING AFTERNOON TEMPS INLAND...BUT REMAINING
CHILLY ALONG THE COAST. A COUPLE WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY
BRING A ROUND OR TWO OF RAIN SHOWERS SOMETIME FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

200 PM UPDATE...

COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH STRONG LIFT AND DYNAMICS COMING
TOGETHER ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BEGINNING TO SEE AN AREAL
INCREASE IN RAIN COVERAGE WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. H925 WINDS FROM VERTICAL WIND PROFILERS VIA
WSR-88D SHOWING ENHANCING S-WINDS OF 60-70 KTS. WILL LIKELY SEE AN
INCREASE IN IMPACTS DUE TO THE ATTRIBUTABLE THREATS OUTLINED
BELOW:

HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING...

FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MULTIPLE POINTS ALONG THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER BASIN WITH THE EXPECTATION OF MINOR RIVER
FLOODING...PERHAPS MODERATE FLOODING AT MIDDLE HADDAM. AN AREAL
FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF RI AND THE SURROUNDING
AREA.

EARLIER...THE SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH NOTED ANOMALOUS DEEP
MOISTURE SURGING NORTH FROM THE GULF ON THE ORDER OF 3-4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WHILE WPC PUT OUT A SLIGHT RISK TO THE
WEST OF THE REGION OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING.
LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS HIGHLIGHTS A SURGE OF 1.5 INCH PWATS INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COLLOCATED WITH STRONG CONVERGENT H85
MOISTURE TRANSPORT.

COUPLING WITH AN AMPLIFYING LLJ ALREADY OBSERVED BY THE EARLIER
MENTIONED VERTICAL WIND PROFILERS THE CONVERGENT NOSE OF WHICH
LIES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BENEATH THE RRQ OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
JET...AND CONSIDERING THE APPROACH OF A SHARP COLD FRONT AND DEEP
FRONTOGENETICAL LIFT...AND YOU HAVE A PRETTY GOOD SETUP FOR HEAVY
RAIN AND FLOODING. CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AND MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES...AND THERE IS SOME CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY TO WARRANT THE
THREAT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

THUS THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES WITH THE EXPECTATIONS AS OUTLINED
ABOVE. AVERAGE STORM-TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST AROUND 2
INCHES AND EXPECT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF AROUND 3 INCHES IN A
TIMEFRAME OF AROUND 6-HOURS.

THE BASIS FOR THE FLOOD WATCH IS DUE TO ALREADY SWOLLEN RIVERS
FROM UPSTREAM SNOWMELT TAKING ON ADDITIONAL WATER AND LIKELY GOING
INTO MINOR FLOOD...POSSIBLY INTO MODERATE FLOOD. RIVER BASINS OF
CONCERN INCLUDE CONNECTICUT/MERRIMACK/PAWCATUCK. ALSO ANTICIPATE
IMPACTS TO LOCAL STREAMS/CREEKS/TRIBUTARIES...ESPECIALLY THOSE
THAT ARE NARROWER AND FLASHIER. THOSE WITH INTERESTS ALONG AREA
RIVERS SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AND CURRENT
WATER LEVELS.

THE FLOOD WATCH ALSO INCLUDES URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE ISSUES THE
HEIGHT OF WHICH WILL CENTER AROUND THE DRIVE-HOME COMMUTE FOR MOST
ROADWAYS THROUGHOUT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CONCERNED FOR THE I-91
CORRIDOR SURROUNDING SPRINGFIELD MA AND HARTFORD CT...AS WELL AS
THE I-95/I-195 CORRIDORS AROUND BOSTON AND PROVIDENCE...EVEN OUT
I-90 INCORPORATING WORCESTER. PONDING OF WATER ALONG AREA ROADWAYS
WILL LIKELY BE A BIG ISSUE TO AREA TRAFFIC.

PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW FOR COASTAL FLOOD
THREATS.

WINDS...

SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND OBSERVING
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS /46 MPH/. WSR-88D VERTICAL WIND
PROFILERS SHOWING WINDS AT H925 AMPLIFYING TO 70 KTS. INCREASING
AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AIDING IN THE
PRECIP-DRAG / MECHANICAL MIXING OF FASTER MOMENTUM ALOFT DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. SHOULD SEE THESE WINDS CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. WIND ADVISORIES CONTINUE ACCORDINGLY. ANY HIGH-WINDS TO
WHICH WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR WILL BE HANDLED WITH SHORT-FUSED
WARNINGS.

THOSE TRAVELING OVER BRIDGES /THINKING THE SAGAMORE AND BOURNE/
SHOULD BE AWARE OF FIERCE CROSSWINDS. GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALREADY RECEIVING NUMEROUS REPORTS OF TREES AND
WIRES DOWN...BLOWN TRANSFORMERS AND POWER OUTAGES. THESE IMPACTS
AND THREATS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION.

WINTRY MIX/FLASH FREEZE POTENTIAL...

TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
CONSIDERING THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RRQ
OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET ACROSS AND TO THE REAR OF THE FRONT...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE
SHALLOW COLD-AIR MASS.

THUS THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO A
SNOW/SLEET MIX...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF N MA AND S NH ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE ROUTE 2 CORRIDOR. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT
AROUND A TRACE TO PERHAPS A TENTH OR TWO...ENOUGH TO MAKE FOR
SLIPPERY CONDITIONS.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REAR OF THE STORM RESULTING IN THE
BACK EDGE OF PRECIP TO DISSIPATE. SHOULD ALSO SEE THIS DRY AIR AT
THE SURFACE. THUS IT IS A QUESTION AS TO WHETHER WET SURFACES FROM
THE RAIN WILL FREEZE AHEAD OF EVAPORATING. EITHER WHICH WAY...THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BLACK-ICE AND SLIPPERY CONDITIONS THAT MAY
EXIST FOR THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...

AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE REGION
AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANY LEFT OVER
PRECIPITATION SHOULD HAVE EXITED THE CAPE/ISLANDS BY EARLY TO MID
MORNING...AS THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE.

NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH DURING THE
MORNING...BUT WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOMALOUS 850
MB TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BETWEEN -6C AND -10C ARE EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...PLENTY OF STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE WILL OFFSET THIS TO SOME
DEGREE. ALL IN ALL...MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE HIGHS RECOVER
WELL INTO THE 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY CHILLY WED/WED NIGHT
* DRY THU INTO FRI AFTERNOON - CHILLY COAST/MILDER AFTERNOON/S INLAND
* A PERIOD OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT BUT LOW CONFIDENCE
* NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN AN UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT.
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS DIMINISHING...THE NORMALLY COLDER
OUTLYING LOCATIONS OF SOUTHWEST NH/NORTHWEST MA WILL PROBABLY SEE
LOWS FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS.  THE REST OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE
LOW TEMPS FALL INTO THE 20S...TO THE LOWER 30S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL GENERATE EAST
TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE.  WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL
THU INTO FRI AFTERNOON...THE ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WIND SHOULD
HOLD HIGH TEMPS IN THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN MA COAST BOTH
DAYS.  FURTHER INLAND...ENOUGH HEATING SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH
WELL UP INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 ACROSS THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY.
WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES THU
NIGHT INTO FRI ALONG THE COAST.  THIS WOULD BE A RESULT OF AN
INCREASING MOIST ONSHORE FLOW.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

A COUPLE WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY PASS NEAR OR
SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK.  A LOT OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY ON THE
TIMING AND EXACT TRACKS OF THESE WEAK WAVES.  HOWEVER...THEY WILL
RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OR TWO OF RAIN SHOWERS FRI NIGHT
AND/OR SAT. WHILE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EVERYWHERE...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER WILL BE
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.  TEMPS LIKELY REMAIN AT LEAST A BIT BELOW
NORMAL.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.  MUCH OF THIS TIME MAY TURN OUT DRY UNTIL
LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES WITH
THE RISK FOR RAIN SHOWERS.  TEMPS WILL LIKELY AVERAGE NEAR OR BELOW
NORMAL WITH THE TENDENCY FOR UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IN THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH CIGS/VSBYS FALLING IFR-VLIFR WITH
+RA TOWARDS CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING PERIOD. POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TSRA BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY WILL NOT MENTION IN TAF. STRONG
S-WINDS WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS FOR S/E TERMINALS. DESPITE
THIS...WILL SEE LLWS IMPACTS OVER ALL TERMINALS AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS
ARE AMPLIFYING TO 60-70 KT 2 KFT AGL.

COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE TERMINALS AROUND MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE
WINDS BACK WEST REMAINING GUSTY UP TO 40 KTS. CONDITIONS QUICKLY
IMPROVING TO VFR. MAY SEE RAIN TRANSITION TO SNOW/SLEET BRIEFLY
WITH MINOR ACCUMS. BEST CHANCES OVER NW MA INTO S NH.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS WED MORNING SHOULD DIMINISH
SOME BY WED AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY BY WED EVENING.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A
PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE IN SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG
PATCHES AND A ROUND OR TWO OF RAIN SHOWERS.  TIMING AND CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...BUT BEST CHANCE OF THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL
BE ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

S-SW WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY SUCH THAT GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY BY THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THIS THREAT. THESE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W-NW EARLY WED MORNING BUT CONTINUE WITH
GALE FORCE GUSTS UNTIL THEY SUBSIDE BY MID MORNING WED.

SOME HEAVY RAIN/FOG AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL.

SEAS INCREASE TO 10-12 FT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS IN
THE MORNING SHOULD LOWER TO SCA LEVELS BY AFTERNOON.  SEAS ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS GIVEN PLENTY OF
LEFT OVER SOUTHERLY SWELL.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL RESULT IN NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 20
TO 25 KNOTS MUCH OF THE TIME.  IN ADDITION...SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER-
WATERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  POTENTIAL FOR NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS
OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND MARGINAL SCA SEAS CONTINUES.  HOWEVER...EXACT
WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF A COUPLE
WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS GUSTING 30 TO 40 MPH WILL
YIELD AN AVERAGE 1.5 FOOT SURGE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. COMBINED
WITH HIGH TIDE AROUND 9-10 PM /NOT ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH/...THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SPLASHOVER ALONG LOW-LYING AREAS...BUT AT
THIS PRESENT TIME WE ARE NOT CONSIDERING MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MAZ002>021-026.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ004>007-
     012>024-026.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR RIZ001>007.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ232-233-235-237-
     250-254>256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ230-231-234-236-
     251.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 151518
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1118 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A MIX OF GUSTY WINDS...SOAKING
RAIN...AND POSSIBLY EVEN A BRIEF CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX BEFORE
ENDING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN WILL BRING DRY BUT UNSEASONABLE CHILLY AIR TO THE
REGION WED/WED NIGHT. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THU INTO THE FIRST
PART OF FRI WITH MODERATING AFTERNOON TEMPS INLAND...BUT REMAINING
CHILLY ALONG THE COAST. A COUPLE WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY
BRING A ROUND OR TWO OF RAIN SHOWERS SOMETIME FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

11 AM UPDATE...

SHARP COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS MID-STATE NY/PA WHICH CAN BE SEEN
WITHIN WSR-88D RADAR REFLECTIVITIES. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH EAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT EXITING OFFSHORE
AFTER MIDNIGHT. ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS AND FORCING WILL ADVECT GULF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD RESULTING IN A HEAVY SOAKING RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. PUSHING UP
AGAINST HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC...WILL ALSO SEE
AN AMPLIFICATION OF WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. SPECIFIC DETAILS AND
THREATS ARE OUTLINED BELOW:

HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING...

THE SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH /NESDIS/ CLEARLY OUTLINES THE
SIGNIFICANCE OF THIS EVENT...ANOMALOUS DEEP MOISTURE SURGING UP
THE EAST-COAST WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER ANOMALY 3-4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE SOUNDING RELEASED NEAR WASHINGTON DC
DULLES AIRPORT OBSERVED A 1.64-INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNT...
THE FOURTH HIGHEST EVER OBSERVED IN APRIL FOR THE AREA.

AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES EAST AGAINST HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...
EXPECT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO AMPLIFY RESULTING IN A LLJ BY
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING BETWEEN 80-90 MPH...THE CONVERGENT NOSE OF
WHICH WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BENEATH THE RRQ OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL JET...THUS DEEP-LAYER ASCENT COMBINING WITH FRONTO-
GENETICAL LIFT OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE. CONSIDERING CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS ALONG WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES YIELDS THE LIKE-
LIHOOD THAT WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH A FINE-LINE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OF EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES WITH HEIGHTENED WORDING AS A HEAVY RAIN
EVENT ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. AREA
AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER ALL
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 3 INCHES.
MUCH OF THIS RAIN MAY FALL IN A SHORT WINDOW OF TIME OF ROUGHLY
6-HOURS AS NOTED BY THE SLIGHT RISK ISSUED BY WPC FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL.

BESIDE RIVER POINTS ALREADY WITH FLOOD WARNINGS...MINOR RIVER FLOODING
IS EXPECTED FOR THE CONNECTICUT...PAWCATUCK...AND MERRIMACK RIVER
BASINS /SOME OF WHICH ARE SWOLLEN DUE TO UPSTREAM SNOWMELT/. SOME
RIVER POINTS MAY REACH MODERATE FLOODING. EXPECTING AREA IMPACTS
TO SMALL RIVERS...TRIBUTARIES...OR STREAMS /ESPECIALLY THOSE WHICH
ARE NARROW AND FLASHIER/. THOSE WITH INTERESTS ALONG LOWER REACHES
OF CT RIVER SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AND
CURRENT WATER LEVELS.

ALSO ANTICIPATE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING ESPECIALLY FOR
THE DENSE URBAN CORRIDORS /SUCH AS I-95 AND I-195/...WITH THE
EXPECTATION OF PONDING OF WATER ALONG AREA ROADWAYS WHICH WILL
IMPACT THE DRIVE-HOME COMMUTE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE HEAVY RAIN
THREAT FALLING POTENTIALLY IN A SHORT-WINDOW OF TIME.

REMOVED THE HYDROLOGY SECTION FROM THE DISCUSSION...TYING IN THE
POINTS ABOVE TO AVOID REDUNDANCY.

PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW FOR COASTAL FLOOD
THREATS.

WINDS...

WITH THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE LLJ AND CONSIDERING PRECIP-DRAG AND
POTENTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER MECHANICAL MIXING PROCESSES /DESPITE THE
STOUT INVERSION PER 12Z CHATHAM SOUNDING/ THERE IS THE THREAT OF
STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 50 MPH /ESPECIALLY WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS/ FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTION OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPANSION INTO THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY
IS STILL BEING CONSIDERED PER MONITORING UPSTREAM TRENDS ALONG THE
FRONT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE THREAT OF HIGH-WINDS...BUT
WILL HANDLE THIS THREAT WITH SHORT-FUSED WARNINGS.

WINTRY MIX/FLASH FREEZE POTENTIAL...

THE BAND OF RAIN WILL MOVE E OF THE REGION ALONG WITH THE COLD
FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TOMORROW.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT...COLD AIR WILL BE
RAPIDLY MOVING IN FROM THE SFC TO MID LVLS DURING THIS TIME.
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A CHANGE OVER TO A PERIOD OF
SLEET/SNOW FROM W TO E WITH EVEN THE LOW END POTENTIAL OF SOME
ACCUMULATION IN THE W AND N OF THE ROUTE 2 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH A RAPID TEMPERATURE DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ON
WET ROADWAYS LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SLIPPERY CONDITIONS
LEADING INTO THE WED MORNING COMMUTE. THE KEY WILL BE THE RACE
BETWEEN THE COLD AND THE DRIER AIR EXACTLY HOW MUCH SNOW
FALLS/ACCUMS...BUT THERE IS THE LOW END CHANCE OF A LIGHT COATING
TO AN INCH IN SOME SPOTS IN THE EXTREME W AND HIGHER TERRAIN AS
GUIDANCE HAS ONLY INCREASED BOTH THE DEPTH AND SPEED WITH WHICH
THE COLD AIR COMES IN BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY ENDS.

TEMPERATURES...

DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...WILL LIKELY MAKE ANOTHER RUN AT 70F
TODAY ACROSS THE E WHERE A BREAK OR TWO OF SUN IS POSSIBLE.
ESPECIALLY SINCE THEY WILL START IN THE LOW 60S. FURTHER W WHERE
CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE ALL DAY AND TEMPS ARE A BIT LOWER THIS
MORNING...ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY CHILLY WED/WED NIGHT
* DRY THU INTO FRI AFTERNOON - CHILLY COAST/MILDER AFTERNOON/S INLAND
* A PERIOD OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT BUT LOW CONFIDENCE
* NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...

AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE REGION
AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.  ANY LEFT OVER
PRECIPITATION SHOULD HAVE EXITED THE CAPE/ISLANDS BY EARLY TO MID
MORNING WED...AS THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE. NORTHWEST
WINDS MAY CONTINUE TO GUST BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH DURING THE
MORNING...BUT WILL DIMINISH SOME DURING THE AFTERNOON.  ANOMALOUS
850 MB TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BETWEEN -6C AND -10C ARE
EXPECTED.  HOWEVER...PLENTY OF STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE WILL OFFSET
THIS TO SOME DEGREE.  ALL IN ALL...MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE
HIGHS RECOVER WELL INTO THE 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN AN UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT.
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS DIMINISHING...THE NORMALLY COLDER
OUTLYING LOCATIONS OF SOUTHWEST NH/NORTHWEST MA WILL PROBABLY SEE
LOWS FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS.  THE REST OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE
LOW TEMPS FALL INTO THE 20S...TO THE LOWER 30S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL GENERATE EAST
TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE.  WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL
THU INTO FRI AFTERNOON...THE ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WIND SHOULD
HOLD HIGH TEMPS IN THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN MA COAST BOTH
DAYS.  FURTHER INLAND...ENOUGH HEATING SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH
WELL UP INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 ACROSS THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY.
WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES THU
NIGHT INTO FRI ALONG THE COAST.  THIS WOULD BE A RESULT OF AN
INCREASING MOIST ONSHORE FLOW.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

A COUPLE WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY PASS NEAR OR
SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK.  A LOT OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY ON THE
TIMING AND EXACT TRACKS OF THESE WEAK WAVES.  HOWEVER...THEY WILL
RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OR TWO OF RAIN SHOWERS FRI NIGHT
AND/OR SAT. WHILE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EVERYWHERE...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER WILL BE
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.  TEMPS LIKELY REMAIN AT LEAST A BIT BELOW
NORMAL.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.  MUCH OF THIS TIME MAY TURN OUT DRY UNTIL
LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES WITH
THE RISK FOR RAIN SHOWERS.  TEMPS WILL LIKELY AVERAGE NEAR OR BELOW
NORMAL WITH THE TENDENCY FOR UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IN THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH CIGS/VSBYS FALLING IFR-VLIFR WITH
+RA TOWARDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING PERIOD. POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TSRA BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY WILL NOT MENTION IN TAF. STRONG
S-WINDS WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS FOR S/E TERMINALS. DESPITE
THIS...WILL SEE LLWS IMPACTS OVER ALL TERMINALS AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS
AMPLIFYING TOWARDS THIS EVENING WITH 60-70 KT JET 2 KFT AGL.

COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE TERMINALS AROUND MIDNIGHT. WILL SEE
WINDS BACK WEST REMAINING GUSTY UP TO 40 KTS. CONDITIONS QUICKLY
IMPROVING TO VFR. MAY SEE RAIN TRANSITION TO SNOW/SLEET BRIEFLY
WITH MINOR ACCUMS. BEST CHANCES OVER NW MA INTO S NH.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS WED MORNING SHOULD DIMINISH
SOME BY WED AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY BY WED EVENING.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A
PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE IN SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG
PATCHES AND A ROUND OR TWO OF RAIN SHOWERS.  TIMING AND CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...BUT BEST CHANCE OF THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL
BE ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

S-SW WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY SUCH THAT GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY BY THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THIS THREAT. THESE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W-NW EARLY WED MORNING BUT CONTINUE WITH
GALE FORCE GUSTS UNTIL THEY SUBSIDE BY MID MORNING WED.

SOME HEAVY RAIN/FOG AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL.

SEAS INCREASE TO 10-12 FT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS IN
THE MORNING SHOULD LOWER TO SCA LEVELS BY AFTERNOON.  SEAS ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS GIVEN PLENTY OF
LEFT OVER SOUTHERLY SWELL.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL RESULT IN NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 20
TO 25 KNOTS MUCH OF THE TIME.  IN ADDITION...SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER-
WATERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  POTENTIAL FOR NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS
OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND MARGINAL SCA SEAS CONTINUES.  HOWEVER...EXACT
WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF A COUPLE
WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS GUSTING 30 TO 40 MPH WILL
YIELD AN AVERAGE 1.5 FOOT SURGE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. COMBINED
WITH HIGH TIDE AROUND 9-10 PM /NOT ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH/...THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SPLASHOVER ALONG LOW-LYING AREAS...BUT AT
THIS PRESENT TIME WE ARE NOT CONSIDERING MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MAZ002>021-026.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ004>007-
     012>024-026.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR RIZ001>007.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ232-233-235-237-250-254>256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ230-231-234-236-
     251.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 151108
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
705 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A MIX OF GUSTY WINDS...SOAKING
RAIN...AND POSSIBLY EVEN A BRIEF CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX BEFORE
ENDING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN WILL BRING DRY BUT UNSEASONABLE CHILLY AIR TO THE
REGION WED/WED NIGHT. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THU INTO THE FIRST
PART OF FRI WITH MODERATING AFTERNOON TEMPS INLAND...BUT REMAINING
CHILLY ALONG THE COAST. A COUPLE WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY
BRING A ROUND OR TWO OF RAIN SHOWERS SOMETIME FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...

705 AM UPDATE...

BANDS OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WERE AFFECTING THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING.  THIS A RESULT OF DEEP MOISTURE IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN.  EXPECT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE REGION THIS MORNING BUT THERE WILL ALSO BE PERIODS OF
DRY WEATHER. THE STEADY/HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AWAIT THE BETTER
DYNAMICS/FORCING THAT WILL MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

EARLY DAY MIXING SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DEEP ESPECIALLY FROM
WORCESTER COUNTY AND SOUTHEAST. MAINLY AS TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY START IN THE LOW 60S AND CLOUD DEPTH WILL BE LOWER THAN
AREAS TO THE W...CLOSER TO THE APPROACHING FRONT. SOUTHERLY LLJ
WILL BE MOVING IN AHEAD OF THIS WAVE/FRONT AND WILL PEAK THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BE INCREASING FROM A START OF 45 KT AT
H92 AT 12Z...TO 70-80 KT BY THE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
LIKELY UNDERDONE IN TERMS OF MIXING AS THEY ARE INITIALIZING TOO
COLD AT THE SFC THIS MORNING. THEREFORE...WILL BE ISSUING A WIND
ADVISORY BEGINNING AT NOON...AS SOME OF THIS HIGH MOMENTUM IS
LIKELY TO BE TAPPED. WILL FOCUSED WHERE HIGHER MIXING IS LIKELY
/EAST OF WORCESTER COUNTY/ BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED
FURTHER W SINCE THE LLJ WILL ARRIVE WITH THE FRONT THERE FIRST.
EXPECTED WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WIND
ADVISORY...BUT SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

TEMPS...DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...WILL LIKELY MAKE ANOTHER RUN AT
70F TODAY ACROSS THE E WHERE A BREAK OR TWO OF SUN IS POSSIBLE.
ESPECIALLY SINCE THEY WILL START IN THE LOW 60S. FURTHER W WHERE
CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE ALL DAY AND TEMPS ARE A BIT LOWER THIS
MORNING...ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /2 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
* STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS A MIX OF POTENTIAL IMPACTS *

A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG MERGING OF NRN AND SRN
STREAM ENERGY WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY AND INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. GIVEN ITS ASSOCIATION WITH DECENT UPPER LVL
DYNAMICS...GOOD LOW-MID LVL F-GEN...AND CONNECTION TO GULF OF
MEXICO MOISTURE IT WILL LEAD TO A MIX OF POTENTIAL IMPACTS ACROSS
THE REGION BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AND
ALLOWING COLDER/DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN. WILL CONTINUE TO ADD THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISO-THUNDER WITH THE COLD FROPA ESPECIALLY AS MODEST
MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND GOOD SFC DWPTS SUGGEST AT LEAST THE LOW
END THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN THE RAINFALL BAND.

HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING...
GIVEN THE GULF MOISTURE AND PWAT VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES
/APPROACHING 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ AND A STRONG
SOUTHERLY LLJ BETWEEN 70-80 KT...THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IS
HIGH. THE STRONG JET WILL ALSO BE SUPPORTED BY MODEST MID LVL
LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.0C/KM SUGGESTING SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE
LIKELY AS THE FRONT MOVES FROM W-E THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. CORFIDI VECTORS ARE QUITE LOW WHICH SUGGESTS THAT
BANDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS MAY LINGER IN SOME AREAS AS WELL. GIVEN
ALL THIS...EXPECTED WIDESPREAD RAIN TOTALS BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.5
INCHES WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AMOUNTS APPROACHING 2.0 INCHES IN
ANY CONVECTION. CURRENT FLOOD WATCH /GIVEN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER
IS ALREADY IN MINOR FLOOD IN AREAS OF CT/ LOOKS GOOD...BUT WILL BE
EXPANDING E WITH THIS UPDATE TO INCLUDE THE I-95 AND I-195
CORRIDORS AS LATEST MESOSCALE GUIDANCE FOCUS A BAND WITH THE LLJ
ACROSS THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR
URBAN/STREAM FLOODING. FOR MORE ON THE HYDRO IMPACTS...SEE THE
DISCUSSION BELOW.

WINDS...
AS MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION ABOVE...WILL BE CONTINUING
WITH A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE REGION THROUGH
MIDNIGHT FOR THE LONG-FUSED THREAT OF STRONG WINDS DUE TO DIURNAL
MIXING. MODELS ARE LIKELY OVERDOING THE INVERSION AS THEY ARE
INITIALIZING TOO COLD THIS MORNING. ALSO...SHOULD ANY CONVECTION
OR FINE LINES DEVELOP AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER TODAY AND
THIS EVENING...THERE IS THE BETTER CHANCE DUE TO A COMBINATION OF
PRECIP-DRAG AND BETTER LOCALIZED MIXING WHICH MAY ALLOW MORE OF
THE 70-80 KT H92 JET TO BE REALIZED. THIS MAY REQUIRE EXPANSION OF
THE WIND ADVISORY FURTHER W AS THE LLJ ARRIVES THERE THIS
AFTERNOON...THE UPGRADE TO A HIGH WIND WARNING...OR MORE SHORT-
FUSED IF THE CONVECTION IS REALIZED. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
TODAY.

WINTRY MIX/FLASH FREEZE POTENTIAL...
THE BAND OF RAIN WILL MOVE E OF THE REGION ALONG WITH THE COLD
FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TOMORROW.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT...COLD AIR WILL BE
RAPIDLY MOVING IN FROM THE SFC TO MID LVLS DURING THIS TIME.
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A CHANGE OVER TO A PERIOD OF
SLEET/SNOW FROM W TO E WITH EVEN THE LOW END POTENTIAL OF SOME
ACCUMULATION IN THE W AND N OF THE ROUTE 2 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH A RAPID TEMPERATURE DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ON
WET ROADWAYS LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SLIPPERY CONDITIONS
LEADING INTO THE WED MORNING COMMUTE. THE KEY WILL BE THE RACE
BETWEEN THE COLD AND THE DRIER AIR EXACTLY HOW MUCH SNOW
FALLS/ACCUMS...BUT THERE IS THE LOW END CHANCE OF A LIGHT COATING
TO AN INCH IN SOME SPOTS IN THE EXTREME W AND HIGHER TERRAIN AS
GUIDANCE HAS ONLY INCREASED BOTH THE DEPTH AND SPEED WITH WHICH
THE COLD AIR COMES IN BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY ENDS.

COASTAL FLOODING...
SEE BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION...BUT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY LEAD TO SOME POCKETS OF
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AT SOUTH COASTAL LOCATIONS WITH THE HIGH
TIDE LATE THIS EVENING /AROUND 9-10 PM/.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY CHILLY WED/WED NIGHT
* DRY THU INTO FRI AFTERNOON - CHILLY COAST/MILDER AFTERNOON/S INLAND
* A PERIOD OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT BUT LOW CONFIDENCE
* NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...

AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE REGION
AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.  ANY LEFT OVER
PRECIPITATION SHOULD HAVE EXITED THE CAPE/ISLANDS BY EARLY TO MID
MORNING WED...AS THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE. NORTHWEST
WINDS MAY CONTINUE TO GUST BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH DURING THE
MORNING...BUT WILL DIMINISH SOME DURING THE AFTERNOON.  ANOMALOUS
850 MB TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BETWEEN -6C AND -10C ARE
EXPECTED.  HOWEVER...PLENTY OF STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE WILL OFFSET
THIS TO SOME DEGREE.  ALL IN ALL...MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE
HIGHS RECOVER WELL INTO THE 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN AN UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT.
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS DIMINISHING...THE NORMALLY COLDER
OUTLYING LOCATIONS OF SOUTHWEST NH/NORTHWEST MA WILL PROBABLY SEE
LOWS FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS.  THE REST OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE
LOW TEMPS FALL INTO THE 20S...TO THE LOWER 30S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL GENERATE EAST
TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE.  WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL
THU INTO FRI AFTERNOON...THE ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WIND SHOULD
HOLD HIGH TEMPS IN THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN MA COAST BOTH
DAYS.  FURTHER INLAND...ENOUGH HEATING SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH
WELL UP INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 ACROSS THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY.
WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES THU
NIGHT INTO FRI ALONG THE COAST.  THIS WOULD BE A RESULT OF AN
INCREASING MOIST ONSHORE FLOW.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

A COUPLE WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY PASS NEAR OR
SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK.  A LOT OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY ON THE
TIMING AND EXACT TRACKS OF THESE WEAK WAVES.  HOWEVER...THEY WILL
RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OR TWO OF RAIN SHOWERS FRI NIGHT
AND/OR SAT. WHILE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EVERYWHERE...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER WILL BE
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.  TEMPS LIKELY REMAIN AT LEAST A BIT BELOW
NORMAL.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.  MUCH OF THIS TIME MAY TURN OUT DRY UNTIL
LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES WITH
THE RISK FOR RAIN SHOWERS.  TEMPS WILL LIKELY AVERAGE NEAR OR BELOW
NORMAL WITH THE TENDENCY FOR UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IN THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN OVERALL TRENDS...HAVE LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING IN TAFS.

CONDITIONS HAVE DETERIORATED TO MAINLY LOW END MVFR-IFR EARLY THIS
MORNING IN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.  THERE WAS ALSO FOG NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST THAT WAS REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO A HALF MILE.

ALL IN ALL...EXPECT MAINLY LOW END MVFR TO IFR THROUGH TONIGHT AS
SHOWERS BECOME WIDESPREAD.  LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME THUNDER
ACCOMPANYING SOME OF THE RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
WELL. OVERNIGHT...RAIN MAY BRIEFLY TRANSITION TO A MIX OF
SNOW/SLEET BEFORE ENDING FROM W TO E. ACCUMULATIONS OF ANY WINTRY
PRECIP WOULD BE LIGHT. A TREND TOWARD VFR IS EXPECTED DURING THE
MORNING HOURS.

OTHERWISE...STRONG S-SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE DAY
TODAY...WITH GUSTS ONCE AGAIN 30-40 KT POSSIBLE AT TIMES. LLWS
WILL BE AN ISSUE AS WELL...40-50 KT THROUGH MORNING...WITH 50+ KT
POSSIBLE OFF THE DECK DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS
RAPIDLY SHIFT TO THE W-NW WITH THE COLD AIR TONIGHT...BUT GUSTS
REMAIN ELEVATED AT LEAST 20-30 KT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS...LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TAFS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS...LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TAFS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS WED MORNING SHOULD DIMINISH
SOME BY WED AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY BY WED EVENING.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A
PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE IN SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG
PATCHES AND A ROUND OR TWO OF RAIN SHOWERS.  TIMING AND CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...BUT BEST CHANCE OF THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL
BE ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

S-SW WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY SUCH THAT GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY BY THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THIS THREAT. THESE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W-NW EARLY WED MORNING BUT CONTINUE WITH
GALE FORCE GUSTS UNTIL THEY SUBSIDE BY MID MORNING WED.

SOME HEAVY RAIN/FOG AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL.

SEAS INCREASE TO 10-12 FT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS IN
THE MORNING SHOULD LOWER TO SCA LEVELS BY AFTERNOON.  SEAS ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS GIVEN PLENTY OF
LEFT OVER SOUTHERLY SWELL.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL RESULT IN NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 20
TO 25 KNOTS MUCH OF THE TIME.  IN ADDITION...SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER-
WATERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  POTENTIAL FOR NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS
OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND MARGINAL SCA SEAS CONTINUES.  HOWEVER...EXACT
WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF A COUPLE
WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD CONTINUES THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. THIS IS DUE TO
THE EXPECTATION THAT SWOLLEN RIVER CONDITIONS AS A RESULT OF
UPSTREAM SNOWMELT COMBINING WITH THE BASIN AVERAGE 1.0-1.5 INCHES
OF RAINFALL ANTICIPATED INTO TONIGHT MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING
OF MAINSTEM RIVERS AND ADJOINING CREEKS AND STREAMS. THERE IS ALSO
THE POTENTIAL FOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING THROUGHOUT THE
WATCH AREA.

THIS WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED E TO INCLUDE ERN MA AND RI AS WELL
HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT A BAND OF 1.5 OR MORE INCHES IN A SHORT TIME
MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AS WELL AS SOME
MINOR FLOODING IN FLASHIER RIVERS/STREAMS. THIS THREAT IS
EXACERBATED IN THE MORE DENSE URBAN CORE ALONG AND AROUND THE I-95
AND I-195 CORRIDORS...ESPECIALLY IF SOME CONVECTIVE HEAVY RAIN
OCCURS...SOMETHING LATEST MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT IN
THESE AREAS FURTHER E.

FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER FOR HARTFORD
AND MIDDLE HADDAM. HOWEVER CURRENT PROJECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SUGGEST OTHER POINTS ALONG THE RIVER MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
REACH MINOR FLOOD WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THOSE WITH
INTERESTS ALONG LOWER REACHES OF CT RIVER SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO
THE LATEST FORECASTS AND CURRENT WATER LEVELS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A CONTINUATION OF STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS...GUSTING 30-40 MPH
OVER THE WATERS /HIGHER NEAR SHORE/ A POTENTIAL SURGE OF 1.5 FEET
OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER IS POSSIBLE ALONG S COASTAL LOCATIONS WITH THE
LATE EVENING HIGH TIDE /9-10 PM LOCAL/. THIS TIDE IS HIGHER THAN
MOST OF LATE...BUT IS NOT NECESSARILY ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH.
HOWEVER...WITH THE ADDED SURGE AND OFFSHORE WAVE ACTION THERE IS
THE LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME SPLASHOVER OR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
WITH THIS HIGH TIDE. CURRENTLY THE FORECAST TIDE IS ABOUT 5.4 FT
AT THE FOX POINT GAUGE IN PROVIDENCE AS A REFERENCE.

THERE IS STILL NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT THE
ISSUANCE OF A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT / ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH-
COAST. WILL EVALUATE WITH LATER FORECASTS AND HIGHLIGHT IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MAZ002>021-026.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR
     MAZ004>007-012>024-026.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR RIZ001>007.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR
     RIZ001>008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ232-233-235-237-250-254>256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ230-231-234-236-
     251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...FRANK/DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...DOODY/FRANK
MARINE...DOODY/FRANK
HYDROLOGY...DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DOODY




000
FXUS61 KBOX 150825
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
425 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A MIX OF GUSTY WINDS...SOAKING
RAIN...AND POSSIBLY EVEN A BRIEF CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX BEFORE
ENDING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN WILL BRING DRY BUT UNSEASONABLE CHILLY AIR TO THE
REGION WED/WED NIGHT. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THU INTO THE FIRST
PART OF FRI WITH MODERATING AFTERNOON TEMPS INLAND...BUT REMAINING
CHILLY ALONG THE COAST. A COUPLE WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY
BRING A ROUND OR TWO OF RAIN SHOWERS SOMETIME FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND GRADUAL MOISTURE FLUX CONTINUES THIS
MORNING. MANIFESTING ITSELF AS A BROAD AREA OF LOW AND MID CLOUDS
AS WELL AS SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS WHERE A POCKET OF LOW LVL
INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED ACROSS SE MA AND RI. HOWEVER...THROUGH
MID DAY...NOT EXPECTING THE SHOWERY ACTIVITY TO INCREASE IN
STRENGTH OR COVERAGE BY TOO MUCH GIVEN THAT STRONGER WAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE W WILL CONTINUE TO
USURP MOST OF THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING /SEE BELOW FOR MORE ON THIS/. THE KEY ASIDE
FROM INCREASING SHOWERY ACTIVITY WILL BE WINDS DESPITE THE BKN-OVC
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED.

EARLY DAY MIXING SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DEEP ESPECIALLY FROM
WORCESTER COUNTY AND SOUTHEAST. MAINLY AS TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY START IN THE LOW 60S AND CLOUD DEPTH WILL BE LOWER THAN
AREAS TO THE W...CLOSER TO THE APPROACHING FRONT. SOUTHERLY LLJ
WILL BE MOVING IN AHEAD OF THIS WAVE/FRONT AND WILL PEAK THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BE INCREASING FROM A START OF 45 KT AT
H92 AT 12Z...TO 70-80 KT BY THE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
LIKELY UNDERDONE IN TERMS OF MIXING AS THEY ARE INITIALIZING TOO
COLD AT THE SFC THIS MORNING. THEREFORE...WILL BE ISSUING A WIND
ADVISORY BEGINNING AT NOON...AS SOME OF THIS HIGH MOMENTUM IS
LIKELY TO BE TAPPED. WILL FOCUSED WHERE HIGHER MIXING IS LIKELY
/EAST OF WORCESTER COUNTY/ BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED
FURTHER W SINCE THE LLJ WILL ARRIVE WITH THE FRONT THERE FIRST.
EXPECTED WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WIND
ADVISORY...BUT SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

TEMPS...DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...WILL LIKELY MAKE ANOTHER RUN AT
70F TODAY ACROSS THE E WHERE A BREAK OR TWO OF SUN IS POSSIBLE.
ESPECIALLY SINCE THEY WILL START IN THE LOW 60S. FURTHER W WHERE
CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE ALL DAY AND TEMPS ARE A BIT LOWER THIS
MORNING...ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /2 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
* STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS A MIX OF POTENTIAL IMPACTS *

A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG MERGING OF NRN AND SRN
STREAM ENERGY WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY AND INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. GIVEN ITS ASSOCIATION WITH DECENT UPPER LVL
DYNAMICS...GOOD LOW-MID LVL F-GEN...AND CONNECTION TO GULF OF
MEXICO MOISTURE IT WILL LEAD TO A MIX OF POTENTIAL IMPACTS ACROSS
THE REGION BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AND
ALLOWING COLDER/DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN. WILL CONTINUE TO ADD THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISO-THUNDER WITH THE COLD FROPA ESPECIALLY AS MODEST
MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND GOOD SFC DWPTS SUGGEST AT LEAST THE LOW
END THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN THE RAINFALL BAND.

HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING...
GIVEN THE GULF MOISTURE AND PWAT VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES
/APPROACHING 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ AND A STRONG
SOUTHERLY LLJ BETWEEN 70-80 KT...THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IS
HIGH. THE STRONG JET WILL ALSO BE SUPPORTED BY MODEST MID LVL
LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.0C/KM SUGGESTING SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE
LIKELY AS THE FRONT MOVES FROM W-E THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. CORFIDI VECTORS ARE QUITE LOW WHICH SUGGESTS THAT
BANDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS MAY LINGER IN SOME AREAS AS WELL. GIVEN
ALL THIS...EXPECTED WIDESPREAD RAIN TOTALS BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.5
INCHES WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AMOUNTS APPROACHING 2.0 INCHES IN
ANY CONVECTION. CURRENT FLOOD WATCH /GIVEN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER
IS ALREADY IN MINOR FLOOD IN AREAS OF CT/ LOOKS GOOD...BUT WILL BE
EXPANDING E WITH THIS UPDATE TO INCLUDE THE I-95 AND I-195
CORRIDORS AS LATEST MESOSCALE GUIDANCE FOCUS A BAND WITH THE LLJ
ACROSS THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR
URBAN/STREAM FLOODING. FOR MORE ON THE HYDRO IMPACTS...SEE THE
DISCUSSION BELOW.

WINDS...
AS MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION ABOVE...WILL BE CONTINUING
WITH A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE REGION THROUGH
MIDNIGHT FOR THE LONG-FUSED THREAT OF STRONG WINDS DUE TO DIURNAL
MIXING. MODELS ARE LIKELY OVERDOING THE INVERSION AS THEY ARE
INITIALIZING TOO COLD THIS MORNING. ALSO...SHOULD ANY CONVECTION
OR FINE LINES DEVELOP AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER TODAY AND
THIS EVENING...THERE IS THE BETTER CHANCE DUE TO A COMBINATION OF
PRECIP-DRAG AND BETTER LOCALIZED MIXING WHICH MAY ALLOW MORE OF
THE 70-80 KT H92 JET TO BE REALIZED. THIS MAY REQUIRE EXPANSION OF
THE WIND ADVISORY FURTHER W AS THE LLJ ARRIVES THERE THIS
AFTERNOON...THE UPGRADE TO A HIGH WIND WARNING...OR MORE SHORT-
FUSED IF THE CONVECTION IS REALIZED. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
TODAY.

WINTRY MIX/FLASH FREEZE POTENTIAL...
THE BAND OF RAIN WILL MOVE E OF THE REGION ALONG WITH THE COLD
FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TOMORROW.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT...COLD AIR WILL BE
RAPIDLY MOVING IN FROM THE SFC TO MID LVLS DURING THIS TIME.
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A CHANGE OVER TO A PERIOD OF
SLEET/SNOW FROM W TO E WITH EVEN THE LOW END POTENTIAL OF SOME
ACCUMULATION IN THE W AND N OF THE ROUTE 2 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH A RAPID TEMPERATURE DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ON
WET ROADWAYS LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SLIPPERY CONDITIONS
LEADING INTO THE WED MORNING COMMUTE. THE KEY WILL BE THE RACE
BETWEEN THE COLD AND THE DRIER AIR EXACTLY HOW MUCH SNOW
FALLS/ACCUMS...BUT THERE IS THE LOW END CHANCE OF A LIGHT COATING
TO AN INCH IN SOME SPOTS IN THE EXTREME W AND HIGHER TERRAIN AS
GUIDANCE HAS ONLY INCREASED BOTH THE DEPTH AND SPEED WITH WHICH
THE COLD AIR COMES IN BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY ENDS.

COASTAL FLOODING...
SEE BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION...BUT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY LEAD TO SOME POCKETS OF
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AT SOUTH COASTAL LOCATIONS WITH THE HIGH
TIDE LATE THIS EVENING /AROUND 9-10 PM/.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY CHILLY WED/WED NIGHT
* DRY THU INTO FRI AFTERNOON - CHILLY COAST/MILDER AFTERNOON/S INLAND
* A PERIOD OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT BUT LOW CONFIDENCE
* NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK

DETAILS...

WEDNESDAY...

AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE REGION
AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.  ANY LEFT OVER
PRECIPITATION SHOULD HAVE EXITED THE CAPE/ISLANDS BY EARLY TO MID
MORNING WED...AS THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE. NORTHWEST
WINDS MAY CONTINUE TO GUST BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH DURING THE
MORNING...BUT WILL DIMINISH SOME DURING THE AFTERNOON.  ANOMALOUS
850 MB TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BETWEEN -6C AND -10C ARE
EXPECTED.  HOWEVER...PLENTY OF STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE WILL OFFSET
THIS TO SOME DEGREE.  ALL IN ALL...MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE
HIGHS RECOVER WELL INTO THE 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN AN UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT.
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS DIMINISHING...THE NORMALLY COLDER
OUTLYING LOCATIONS OF SOUTHWEST NH/NORTHWEST MA WILL PROBABLY SEE
LOWS FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS.  THE REST OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE
LOW TEMPS FALL INTO THE 20S...TO THE LOWER 30S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL GENERATE EAST
TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE.  WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL
THU INTO FRI AFTERNOON...THE ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WIND SHOULD
HOLD HIGH TEMPS IN THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN MA COAST BOTH
DAYS.  FURTHER INLAND...ENOUGH HEATING SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH
WELL UP INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 ACROSS THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY.
WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES THU
NIGHT INTO FRI ALONG THE COAST.  THIS WOULD BE A RESULT OF AN
INCREASING MOIST ONSHORE FLOW.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

A COUPLE WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY PASS NEAR OR
SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK.  A LOT OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY ON THE
TIMING AND EXACT TRACKS OF THESE WEAK WAVES.  HOWEVER...THEY WILL
RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OR TWO OF RAIN SHOWERS FRI NIGHT
AND/OR SAT. WHILE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EVERYWHERE...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER WILL BE
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.  TEMPS LIKELY REMAIN AT LEAST A BIT BELOW
NORMAL.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.  MUCH OF THIS TIME MAY TURN OUT DRY UNTIL
LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES WITH
THE RISK FOR RAIN SHOWERS.  TEMPS WILL LIKELY AVERAGE NEAR OR BELOW
NORMAL WITH THE TENDENCY FOR UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IN THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN OVERALL TRENDS...HAVE LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING IN TAFS.

MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING AS LONG AS WINDS REMAIN 10-20 KT WITH
GUSTS 20+. IF THEY DROP...A BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG WITH IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...HAVE FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE WINDS
REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN MAINLY MAINLY MVFR DUE TO CIGS...EVEN
IN SOME -SHRA ACROSS ERN CT/RI AND SE MASS.

THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE TOWARD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
DAY IN A MIX OF RAIN AND FOG AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME THUNDER
ACCOMPANYING SOME OF THE RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
WELL. OVERNIGHT...RAIN MAY BRIEFLY TRANSITION TO A MIX OF
SNOW/SLEET BEFORE ENDING FROM W TO E. ACCUMULATIONS OF ANY WINTRY
PRECIP WOULD BE LIGHT. A TREND TOWARD VFR IS EXPECTED DURING THE
MORNING HOURS.

OTHERWISE...STRONG S-SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE DAY
TODAY...WITH GUSTS ONCE AGAIN 30-40 KT POSSIBLE AT TIMES. LLWS
WILL BE AN ISSUE AS WELL...40-50 KT THROUGH MORNING...WITH 50+ KT
POSSIBLE OFF THE DECK DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS
RAPIDLY SHIFT TO THE W-NW WITH THE COLD AIR TONIGHT...BUT GUSTS
REMAIN ELEVATED AT LEAST 20-30 KT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS...LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TAFS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS...LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TAFS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS WED MORNING SHOULD DIMINISH
SOME BY WED AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY BY WED EVENING.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  A
PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE IN SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG
PATCHES AND A ROUND OR TWO OF RAIN SHOWERS.  TIMING AND CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...BUT BEST CHANCE OF THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL
BE ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

S-SW WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY SUCH THAT GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY BY THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THIS THREAT. THESE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W-NW EARLY WED MORNING BUT CONTINUE WITH
GALE FORCE GUSTS UNTIL THEY SUBSIDE BY MID MORNING WED.

SOME HEAVY RAIN/FOG AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL.

SEAS INCREASE TO 10-12 FT.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS IN
THE MORNING SHOULD LOWER TO SCA LEVELS BY AFTERNOON.  SEAS ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS GIVEN PLENTY OF
LEFT OVER SOUTHERLY SWELL.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL RESULT IN NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 20
TO 25 KNOTS MUCH OF THE TIME.  IN ADDITION...SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER-
WATERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  POTENTIAL FOR NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS
OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND MARGINAL SCA SEAS CONTINUES.  HOWEVER...EXACT
WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF A COUPLE
WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD CONTINUES THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. THIS IS DUE TO
THE EXPECTATION THAT SWOLLEN RIVER CONDITIONS AS A RESULT OF
UPSTREAM SNOWMELT COMBINING WITH THE BASIN AVERAGE 1.0-1.5 INCHES
OF RAINFALL ANTICIPATED INTO TONIGHT MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING
OF MAINSTEM RIVERS AND ADJOINING CREEKS AND STREAMS. THERE IS ALSO
THE POTENTIAL FOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING THROUGHOUT THE
WATCH AREA.

THIS WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED E TO INCLUDE ERN MA AND RI AS WELL
HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT A BAND OF 1.5 OR MORE INCHES IN A SHORT TIME
MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AS WELL AS SOME
MINOR FLOODING IN FLASHIER RIVERS/STREAMS. THIS THREAT IS
EXACERBATED IN THE MORE DENSE URBAN CORE ALONG AND AROUND THE I-95
AND I-195 CORRIDORS...ESPECIALLY IF SOME CONVECTIVE HEAVY RAIN
OCCURS...SOMETHING LATEST MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT IN
THESE AREAS FURTHER E.

FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER FOR HARTFORD
AND MIDDLE HADDAM. HOWEVER CURRENT PROJECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SUGGEST OTHER POINTS ALONG THE RIVER MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
REACH MINOR FLOOD WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THOSE WITH
INTERESTS ALONG LOWER REACHES OF CT RIVER SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO
THE LATEST FORECASTS AND CURRENT WATER LEVELS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A CONTINUATION OF STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS...GUSTING 30-40 MPH
OVER THE WATERS /HIGHER NEAR SHORE/ A POTENTIAL SURGE OF 1.5 FEET
OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER IS POSSIBLE ALONG S COASTAL LOCATIONS WITH THE
LATE EVENING HIGH TIDE /9-10 PM LOCAL/. THIS TIDE IS HIGHER THAN
MOST OF LATE...BUT IS NOT NECESSARILY ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH.
HOWEVER...WITH THE ADDED SURGE AND OFFSHORE WAVE ACTION THERE IS
THE LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME SPLASHOVER OR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
WITH THIS HIGH TIDE. CURRENTLY THE FORECAST TIDE IS ABOUT 5.4 FT
AT THE FOX POINT GAUGE IN PROVIDENCE AS A REFERENCE.

THERE IS STILL NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT THE
ISSUANCE OF A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT / ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH-
COAST. WILL EVALUATE WITH LATER FORECASTS AND HIGHLIGHT IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ002>021-026.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR
     MAZ004>007-012>024-026.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR RIZ001>007.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR
     RIZ001>008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ232-233-235-237-250-254>256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ230-231-234-236-
     251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY
MARINE...FRANK/DOODY
HYDROLOGY...STAFF
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 150544
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
144 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING WITH IT A SOAKING RAIN FOR
TUESDAY EXITING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. DRIER AND MUCH
COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING BY FRIDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1 AM UPDATE...
BANDS OF SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ON THE LEADING EDGE OF
STRONG LLJ ENERGY AND WHERE MOISTURE HAS INCREASED ACROSS SE MA
AND RI. ELSEWHERE DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH LITTLE IF ANY FOG
THANKS TO CONTINUED MIXING ACROSS THE REGION. IT WILL LIKELY TAKE
UNTIL THE LLJ REACHES WRN AREAS FOR RAINFALL TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD. ADJUSTED TOWARD LATEST NAM/SREF WHICH ARE HANDLING
EARLY MORNING -SHRA AND OTHER RAIN TO THE W.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...

INCREASING S WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BLUSTERY AT
THE SURFACE BUT BELOW WIND-ADV CRITERIA WITH 25 TO 30 MPH GUSTS AT
MOST. WILL SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG/DRIZZLE AS MOISTURE
CONVERGES ALONG THE NOSE OF A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL-JET POOLING
BENEATH A DRY-AIR INVERSION ALOFT AND UNDERGOING WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT MAINLY ALONG THE S-COAST. BULK OF THE RAIN STAYS WEST ALONG
WITH THE COLD FRONT.

BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER OUTCOMES THIS EVENING WILL BE
DENSE FOG OR LOW CLOUDS. WITH HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR TRANSPOSED OVER
COLDER OCEAN WATERS WOULD EXPECT DENSE FOG ALONG THE S-COAST...BUT
WITH STRONG S WINDS...MECHANICAL MIXING MAY RESULT IN VERY LOW
STRATUS. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ISSUANCE OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
NOW...BUT HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TUESDAY...

COLD FRONT SURGES INTO NEW ENGLAND. ANTICIPATING A DISTINCT BAND OF
RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

CONTINUED STRONG S LOW-LEVEL-JET AHEAD OF THE FRONT UP TO 80 MPH AT
H925. THOUGH BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING IS LIMITED BY WARMER AIR ALOFT...
AM CONCERNED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD LEND
TO PRECIP-DRAG OF FASTER WINDS TO THE SURFACE. CONSIDERING FORECAST
WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR-VECTORS ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT...
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD CONTAIN AN ISOLATED WIND THREAT.
HAVE APPENDED THE CONVECTIVE THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS TO THE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

TIGHTENING PRES-GRADIENT AND LIMITED BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING SHOULD
ALLOW FOR S WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING WIND ADV
CRITERIA. MUCH LIKE TODAY...GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH WILL BE ISOLATED.
FEEL THE WIND ISSUES CAN BE HANDLED BY SHORT-FUSED PRODUCTS ESP WITH
THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS. WILL NOT ISSUE A WIND ADV WITH THIS
FORECAST.

S-FETCH WILL ADVECT PWATS OF AROUND 1.5-INCHES N ALONG WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN EXCESS OF 50 DEGREES. TWO AREAS OF CONCERN:
POTENTIAL URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AND RIVER/SMALL-STREAM FLOODING ESP
FOR THE CT-RIVER VALLEY...AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG
ALONG THE S-COAST WITH HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR OVER- RIDING A COLDER
OCEAN.

WILL HOIST A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE CT-VALLEY ACCORDINGLY. FURTHER
HYDROLOGICAL DISCUSSION CAN BE FOUND LATER IN THE DISCUSSION DOWN
BELOW. AS FOR THE DENSE FOG...WILL MONITOR OVERNIGHT AND UPDATE
HEADLINES CLOSER TOWARDS MORNING AS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE
AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR COASTAL FLOODING THREATS...PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOODING
PORTION OF THE AFD OUTLINING THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR SPLASHOVER
ALONG THE S-COAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE SHARP COLD FRONT...
MAINLY FOR THE EVENING PERIOD...SO WILL TABLE THE OUTCOMES BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR THE TUESDAY NIGHT DISCUSSION.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHALLOW COLD AIR
POURS IN VIA WESTERLY WINDS BENEATH SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AIR ALOFT.

WILL SEE THE BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZE UP TO H9 WITH COLD-AIR
ADVECTION ALLOWING FOR THE MIX-DOWN OF FASTER MOMENTUM AND W-WIND
GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AT THE SURFACE. WIND ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE
CONSIDERED...BUT AGAIN FEEL SUCH WINDS WILL BE BRIEF AND CAN BE
HANDLED WITH SHORT-FUSED PRODUCTS.

STRONG ASCENT PER RRQ AND MAIN SHORT-WAVE THROUGH THE NEGATIVELY
TILTING TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT
WITHIN THE SHALLOW COLD AIR. BUT THIS SHOULD BE BRIEF WITH AN INFLUX
OF DRIER AIR TO THE REAR /POSSIBLY ALSO THE DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT
OFF THE BERKSHIRES WILL PRESENT LIMITATIONS/. WINTRY PRECIP TYPES
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NW MA INTO S NH. ACCUMULATIONS IF
ANY WILL BE JUST AROUND A TRACE. DO NOT BELIEVE WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES ARE NECESSARY.

BIGGER CONCERN IS ON THE FLASH FREEZE POTENTIAL WITH THE IMMEDIATE
INFLUX OF COLDER AIR. COULD SEE POTENTIAL BLACK-ICE IMPACTS FOR THE
WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE. LOWS FALLING AROUND THE UPPER-20S TO
LOW-30S BY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER BUT MUCH COOLER WED AND THU
* TEMPERATURES START TO MODERATE FRI INTO THE WEEKEND
* UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND

14/12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM.  OVER THE WEEKEND...PARTICULARLY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE START TO BE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF.  THESE WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME EFFECT ON THE
TIMING OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...BUT THESE DIFFERENCES WILL BE
RESOLVED OVER TIME.  ACROSS THE BOARD...MOST OF THE MODELS AS WELL
AS THE ENSEMBLES FOCUS ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND
UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVER THE WEEKEND.  EXPECT THIS IS THE
LIKELIER SOLUTION GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT...BUT THERE ARE A FEW
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS/MODEL RUNS THAT ARE FOCUSING MORE ON THE NORTHERN
STREAM LOW.  SO THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT PATTERN FOR
NEXT WEEKEND...AS THERE SHOULD AT THIS TIME RANGE.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT THESE SHOULD COME TO AN
END EARLY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE WEATHER SHOULD BE QUIET ASIDE FROM THESE SHOWERS...BUT CHILLY
WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OFF THE OCEAN RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MID APRIL.

FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES START TO MODERATE FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  HOWEVER
WITH NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS CONTINUING...EXPECT COASTAL
LOCATIONS TO REMAIN CHILLY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS STATED ABOVE...THIS IS LIKELY TO BE A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AS A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CAROLINAS TO NEAR THE 40/70 BENCHMARK.  THE
FIRST IS FORECAST TO MOVE WELL OUTSIDE OF THE BENCHMARK...LIKELY
BRINGING SHOWERS AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE EASTERN
PART OF THE REGION SATURDAY.  THE SECOND MOVES CLOSER TO THE
BENCHMARK...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE REGION MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES MODERATE ENOUGH THROUGH THIS PERIOD
THAT THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS RAIN.  THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS...AND THUS
THE RAINFALL THAT WILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN OVERALL TRENDS...HAVE LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING IN TAFS.

MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING AS LONG AS WINDS REMAIN 10-20 KT WITH
GUSTS 20+. IF THEY DROP...A BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG WITH IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...HAVE FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE WINDS
REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN MAINLY MAINLY MVFR DUE TO CIGS...EVEN
IN SOME -SHRA ACROSS ERN CT/RI AND SE MASS.

THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE TOWARD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
DAY IN A MIX OF RAIN AND FOG AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME THUNDER
ACCOMPANYING SOME OF THE RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
WELL. OVERNIGHT...RAIN MAY BRIEFLY TRANSITION TO A MIX OF
SNOW/SLEET BEFORE ENDING FROM W TO E. ACCUMULATIONS OF ANY WINTRY
PRECIP WOULD BE LIGHT. A TREND TOWARD VFR IS EXPECTED DURING THE
MORNING HOURS.

OTHERWISE...STRONG S-SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE DAY
TODAY...WITH GUSTS ONCE AGAIN 30-40 KT POSSIBLE AT TIMES. LLWS
WILL BE AN ISSUE AS WELL...40-50 KT THROUGH MORNING...WITH 50+ KT
POSSIBLE OFF THE DECK DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS
RAPIDLY SHIFT TO THE W-NW WITH THE COLD AIR TONIGHT...BUT GUSTS
REMAIN ELEVATED AT LEAST 20-30 KT.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS...LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TAFS.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS...LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TAFS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY TO VFR MOST LOCATIONS.
TYPICALLY ON NE WINDS LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MA
INCLUDING KBOS. IFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST ARE THEN
CLIMATOLOGICALLY LIKELY FOR BOTH DAYS.  HOWEVER...MODELS ARE VERY
DRY ON WEDNESDAY...SO THIS MAY NOT OCCUR.  MOISTURE RETURNS THURSDAY
THOUGH.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW CLOUDS/IFR CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH CONTINUED NE FLOW.  OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY PARTICULARLY
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA IN RAIN/FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

GALE WARNINGS FOR STRONG S WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT FOR TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WINDS BACK OUT OF THE WEST WITH PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT REMAINING IN EXCESS OF GALE-FORCE. WAVE HEIGHTS UP
TO 10 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER WATERS.

ALSO WORTHY OF NOTE...AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EXPECT WIDESPREAD
RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

AND ALSO BEGINNING TONIGHT...THERE IS ALSO A GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR SEEING DENSE FOG ESP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH VISIBILITIES
DOWN TO A HALF-MILE OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTHWESTERLY GALES SLACKEN AS COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE MARITIMES.  WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.  SEAS
DIMINISH SLOWLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND BUT WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS
REMAIN CLOSE TO OR ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST ON THE OUTER WATERS.

SATURDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS
MAY INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS.
MODERATE PROBABILITY OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BEING NEEDED. IN
ADDITION...VISIBILITIES MAY BE LIMITED IN RAIN/FOG.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY.
THIS IS DUE TO THE EXPECTATION THAT SWOLLEN RIVER CONDITIONS AS A
RESULT OF UPSTREAM SNOWMELT COMBINING WITH THE BASIN AVERAGE 1.5
INCHES OF RAINFALL ANTICIPATED TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF MAINSTEM RIVERS AND ADJOINING CREEKS
AND STREAMS. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING THROUGHOUT THE WATCH AREA.

FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER
FOR HARTFORD AND MIDDLE HADDAM. THOSE WITH INTERESTS ALONG LOWER
REACHES OF CT RIVER SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST FORECASTS
AND CURRENT WATER LEVELS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH WILL PRODUCE A STORM-SURGE
OF 1 TO 2 FEET ALONG THE SOUTH-COAST PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. COMBINED WITH TUESDAY
EVENINGS HIGH TIDE...AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SPLASHOVER
AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS AND ROADWAYS ALONG
THE SOUTH-COAST.

THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT THE
ISSUANCE OF A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT / ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH-
COAST. WILL EVALUATE WITH LATER FORECASTS AND HIGHLIGHT IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR CTZ002-003.
MA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR MAZ002>004-008>011-026.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR ANZ232-233-235-237-250-254>256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ230-231-234-236-
     251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...DOODY/RLG
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 150202
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1002 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING WITH IT A SOAKING RAIN FOR
TUESDAY EXITING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. DRIER AND MUCH
COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING BY FRIDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
ALTHOUGH A COMBINATION OF BL DWPTS AND LATEST LAPS SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST OVERALL LOWER LVL COLUMN MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE ONLY BKN-OVC CLOUD COVER OBSERVED. A LOW-TOPPED
CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING THROUGH NY HAS VERY RAPIDLY
DIMINISHED...DUE TO A COMBINATION OF LOSS OF DIURNAL SUPPORT AND
THE USURPING OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BY STRONG SHORTWAVE/LLJ WELL
TO THE S. THEREFORE...FEEL THAT LATEST MESOSCALE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO HAVE THE RIGHT IDEA...THAT THIS INITIAL BAND OF
PRECIP WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON SRN NEW ENGLAND. WILL NEED
TO WATCH THE NOSE OF THE SRN LLJ MENTIONED EARLIER
THOUGH...BECAUSE IT IS THAT WHICH COULD BRING BLOSSOMING RAINFALL
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS PARTICULARLY IN CT AND WRN MA AS
THE STRONG COLD FRONT WELL W OF THE REGION APPROACHES.

BL MIXING CONTINUES TO KEEP FOG AT BAY ACROSS THE REGION SO WILL
DELAY FOG TIMING BY A FEW HOURS TO SEE HOW MUCH MIXING DIMINISHES
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...

INCREASING S WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BLUSTERY AT
THE SURFACE BUT BELOW WIND-ADV CRITERIA WITH 25 TO 30 MPH GUSTS AT
MOST. WILL SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG/DRIZZLE AS MOISTURE
CONVERGES ALONG THE NOSE OF A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL-JET POOLING
BENEATH A DRY-AIR INVERSION ALOFT AND UNDERGOING WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT MAINLY ALONG THE S-COAST. BULK OF THE RAIN STAYS WEST ALONG
WITH THE COLD FRONT.

BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER OUTCOMES THIS EVENING WILL BE
DENSE FOG OR LOW CLOUDS. WITH HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR TRANSPOSED OVER
COLDER OCEAN WATERS WOULD EXPECT DENSE FOG ALONG THE S-COAST...BUT
WITH STRONG S WINDS...MECHANICAL MIXING MAY RESULT IN VERY LOW
STRATUS. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ISSUANCE OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
NOW...BUT HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...

COLD FRONT SURGES INTO NEW ENGLAND. ANTICIPATING A DISTINCT BAND OF
RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

CONTINUED STRONG S LOW-LEVEL-JET AHEAD OF THE FRONT UP TO 80 MPH AT
H925. THOUGH BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING IS LIMITED BY WARMER AIR ALOFT...
AM CONCERNED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD LEND
TO PRECIP-DRAG OF FASTER WINDS TO THE SURFACE. CONSIDERING FORECAST
WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR-VECTORS ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT...
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD CONTAIN AN ISOLATED WIND THREAT.
HAVE APPENDED THE CONVECTIVE THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS TO THE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

TIGHTENING PRES-GRADIENT AND LIMITED BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING SHOULD
ALLOW FOR S WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING WIND ADV
CRITERIA. MUCH LIKE TODAY...GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH WILL BE ISOLATED.
FEEL THE WIND ISSUES CAN BE HANDLED BY SHORT-FUSED PRODUCTS ESP WITH
THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS. WILL NOT ISSUE A WIND ADV WITH THIS
FORECAST.

S-FETCH WILL ADVECT PWATS OF AROUND 1.5-INCHES N ALONG WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN EXCESS OF 50 DEGREES. TWO AREAS OF CONCERN:
POTENTIAL URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AND RIVER/SMALL-STREAM FLOODING ESP
FOR THE CT-RIVER VALLEY...AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG
ALONG THE S-COAST WITH HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR OVER- RIDING A COLDER
OCEAN.

WILL HOIST A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE CT-VALLEY ACCORDINGLY. FURTHER
HYDROLOGICAL DISCUSSION CAN BE FOUND LATER IN THE DISCUSSION DOWN
BELOW. AS FOR THE DENSE FOG...WILL MONITOR OVERNIGHT AND UPDATE
HEADLINES CLOSER TOWARDS MORNING AS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE
AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR COASTAL FLOODING THREATS...PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOODING
PORTION OF THE AFD OUTLINING THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR SPLASHOVER
ALONG THE S-COAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE SHARP COLD FRONT...
MAINLY FOR THE EVENING PERIOD...SO WILL TABLE THE OUTCOMES BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR THE TUESDAY NIGHT DISCUSSION.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHALLOW COLD AIR
POURS IN VIA WESTERLY WINDS BENEATH SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AIR ALOFT.

WILL SEE THE BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZE UP TO H9 WITH COLD-AIR
ADVECTION ALLOWING FOR THE MIX-DOWN OF FASTER MOMENTUM AND W-WIND
GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AT THE SURFACE. WIND ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE
CONSIDERED...BUT AGAIN FEEL SUCH WINDS WILL BE BRIEF AND CAN BE
HANDLED WITH SHORT-FUSED PRODUCTS.

STRONG ASCENT PER RRQ AND MAIN SHORT-WAVE THROUGH THE NEGATIVELY
TILTING TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT
WITHIN THE SHALLOW COLD AIR. BUT THIS SHOULD BE BRIEF WITH AN INFLUX
OF DRIER AIR TO THE REAR /POSSIBLY ALSO THE DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT
OFF THE BERKSHIRES WILL PRESENT LIMITATIONS/. WINTRY PRECIP TYPES
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NW MA INTO S NH. ACCUMULATIONS IF
ANY WILL BE JUST AROUND A TRACE. DO NOT BELIEVE WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES ARE NECESSARY.

BIGGER CONCERN IS ON THE FLASH FREEZE POTENTIAL WITH THE IMMEDIATE
INFLUX OF COLDER AIR. COULD SEE POTENTIAL BLACK-ICE IMPACTS FOR THE
WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE. LOWS FALLING AROUND THE UPPER-20S TO
LOW-30S BY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER BUT MUCH COOLER WED AND THU
* TEMPERATURES START TO MODERATE FRI INTO THE WEEKEND
* UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND

14/12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM.  OVER THE WEEKEND...PARTICULARLY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE START TO BE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF.  THESE WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME EFFECT ON THE
TIMING OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...BUT THESE DIFFERENCES WILL BE
RESOLVED OVER TIME.  ACROSS THE BOARD...MOST OF THE MODELS AS WELL
AS THE ENSEMBLES FOCUS ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND
UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVER THE WEEKEND.  EXPECT THIS IS THE
LIKELIER SOLUTION GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT...BUT THERE ARE A FEW
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS/MODEL RUNS THAT ARE FOCUSING MORE ON THE NORTHERN
STREAM LOW.  SO THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT PATTERN FOR
NEXT WEEKEND...AS THERE SHOULD AT THIS TIME RANGE.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT THESE SHOULD COME TO AN
END EARLY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE WEATHER SHOULD BE QUIET ASIDE FROM THESE SHOWERS...BUT CHILLY
WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OFF THE OCEAN RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MID APRIL.

FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES START TO MODERATE FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  HOWEVER
WITH NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS CONTINUING...EXPECT COASTAL
LOCATIONS TO REMAIN CHILLY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS STATED ABOVE...THIS IS LIKELY TO BE A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AS A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CAROLINAS TO NEAR THE 40/70 BENCHMARK.  THE
FIRST IS FORECAST TO MOVE WELL OUTSIDE OF THE BENCHMARK...LIKELY
BRINGING SHOWERS AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE EASTERN
PART OF THE REGION SATURDAY.  THE SECOND MOVES CLOSER TO THE
BENCHMARK...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE REGION MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES MODERATE ENOUGH THROUGH THIS PERIOD
THAT THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS RAIN.  THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS...AND THUS
THE RAINFALL THAT WILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

00Z UPDATE...

S WINDS ANTICIPATED TO DROP OFF SLIGHTLY INCREASING LLWS THREATS
AS WINDS 2 KFT AGL OVERNIGHT WILL BE AROUND 50 KTS.

IN ADDITION TO LLWS...MAIN CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS
THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CIGS AROUND 1-2 KFT WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF
1/2SM FG ALONG THE S-SHORELINE TERMINALS. WITH ANY DENSE FOG WILL
LIKELY SOUP-OUT TO VV002.

COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING EXITING OFFSHORE SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
A DISTINCT BAND OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED TSRA /BETTER CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS CT-RIVER VALLEY/.
SUCH STRONGER ACTIVITY COULD YIELD AN ISOLATED WIND THREAT WITH S
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS. OTHERWISE ON AVERAGE 15 TO 25 KT
SUSTAINED WINDS WITH 25 TO 35 KT GUSTS. EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR-IFR
CIGS AND VSBYS.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...WINDS BACK WEST AS TEMPS DROP CONSIDERABLY. WILL
SEE W-WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS AS CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVE TO
VFR. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW/SLEET MIX TO THE REAR OF THE
COLD FRONT...BUT BEST CHANCES OVER NW MA AND S NH.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY TO VFR MOST LOCATIONS.
TYPICALLY ON NE WINDS LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MA
INCLUDING KBOS. IFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST ARE THEN
CLIMATOLOGICALLY LIKELY FOR BOTH DAYS.  HOWEVER...MODELS ARE VERY
DRY ON WEDNESDAY...SO THIS MAY NOT OCCUR.  MOISTURE RETURNS THURSDAY
THOUGH.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW CLOUDS/IFR CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH CONTINUED NE FLOW.  OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY PARTICULARLY
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA IN RAIN/FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

GALE WARNINGS FOR STRONG S WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT FOR TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WINDS BACK OUT OF THE WEST WITH PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT REMAINING IN EXCESS OF GALE-FORCE. WAVE HEIGHTS UP
TO 10 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER WATERS.

ALSO WORTHY OF NOTE...AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EXPECT WIDESPREAD
RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

AND ALSO BEGINNING TONIGHT...THERE IS ALSO A GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR SEEING DENSE FOG ESP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH VISIBILITIES
DOWN TO A HALF-MILE OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTHWESTERLY GALES SLACKEN AS COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE MARITIMES.  WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.  SEAS
DIMINISH SLOWLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND BUT WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS
REMAIN CLOSE TO OR ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST ON THE OUTER WATERS.

SATURDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS
MAY INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS.
MODERATE PROBABILITY OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BEING NEEDED. IN
ADDITION...VISIBILITIES MAY BE LIMITED IN RAIN/FOG.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY.
THIS IS DUE TO THE EXPECTATION THAT SWOLLEN RIVER CONDITIONS AS A
RESULT OF UPSTREAM SNOWMELT COMBINING WITH THE BASIN AVERAGE 1.5
INCHES OF RAINFALL ANTICIPATED TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF MAINSTEM RIVERS AND ADJOINING CREEKS
AND STREAMS. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING THROUGHOUT THE WATCH AREA.

FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER
FOR HARTFORD AND MIDDLE HADDAM. THOSE WITH INTERESTS ALONG LOWER
REACHES OF CT RIVER SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST FORECASTS
AND CURRENT WATER LEVELS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH WILL PRODUCE A STORM-SURGE
OF 1 TO 2 FEET ALONG THE SOUTH-COAST PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. COMBINED WITH TUESDAY
EVENINGS HIGH TIDE...AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SPLASHOVER
AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS AND ROADWAYS ALONG
THE SOUTH-COAST.

THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT THE
ISSUANCE OF A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT / ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH-
COAST. WILL EVALUATE WITH LATER FORECASTS AND HIGHLIGHT IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR CTZ002-003.
MA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR MAZ002>004-008>011-026.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ232-233-235-237-250-254>256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ230-231-234-236-
     251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL
HYDROLOGY...STAFF
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 142300
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
700 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING WITH IT A SOAKING RAIN FOR
TUESDAY EXITING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. DRIER AND MUCH
COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING BY FRIDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SLOWLY AS
THE SUN SETS AND MIXING DECREASES. OTHERWISE...STARTING TO SEE
SOME HINTS OF FOG CREEPING ONTO NANTUCKET. MADE SOME MINOR EDITS
TO THE NEAR TERM GRIDS TO BETTER ACCOUNT FOR TRENDS BUT FORECAST
IS OVERALL ON TRACK.

TONIGHT...

INCREASING S WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BLUSTERY AT
THE SURFACE BUT BELOW WIND-ADV CRITERIA WITH 25 TO 30 MPH GUSTS AT
MOST. WILL SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG/DRIZZLE AS MOISTURE
CONVERGES ALONG THE NOSE OF A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL-JET POOLING
BENEATH A DRY-AIR INVERSION ALOFT AND UNDERGOING WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT MAINLY ALONG THE S-COAST. BULK OF THE RAIN STAYS WEST ALONG
WITH THE COLD FRONT.

BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER OUTCOMES THIS EVENING WILL BE
DENSE FOG OR LOW CLOUDS. WITH HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR TRANSPOSED OVER
COLDER OCEAN WATERS WOULD EXPECT DENSE FOG ALONG THE S-COAST...BUT
WITH STRONG S WINDS...MECHANICAL MIXING MAY RESULT IN VERY LOW
STRATUS. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ISSUANCE OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
NOW...BUT HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...

COLD FRONT SURGES INTO NEW ENGLAND. ANTICIPATING A DISTINCT BAND OF
RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

CONTINUED STRONG S LOW-LEVEL-JET AHEAD OF THE FRONT UP TO 80 MPH AT
H925. THOUGH BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING IS LIMITED BY WARMER AIR ALOFT...
AM CONCERNED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD LEND
TO PRECIP-DRAG OF FASTER WINDS TO THE SURFACE. CONSIDERING FORECAST
WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR-VECTORS ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT...
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD CONTAIN AN ISOLATED WIND THREAT.
HAVE APPENDED THE CONVECTIVE THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS TO THE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

TIGHTENING PRES-GRADIENT AND LIMITED BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING SHOULD
ALLOW FOR S WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING WIND ADV
CRITERIA. MUCH LIKE TODAY...GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH WILL BE ISOLATED.
FEEL THE WIND ISSUES CAN BE HANDLED BY SHORT-FUSED PRODUCTS ESP WITH
THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS. WILL NOT ISSUE A WIND ADV WITH THIS
FORECAST.

S-FETCH WILL ADVECT PWATS OF AROUND 1.5-INCHES N ALONG WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN EXCESS OF 50 DEGREES. TWO AREAS OF CONCERN:
POTENTIAL URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AND RIVER/SMALL-STREAM FLOODING ESP
FOR THE CT-RIVER VALLEY...AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG
ALONG THE S-COAST WITH HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR OVER- RIDING A COLDER
OCEAN.

WILL HOIST A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE CT-VALLEY ACCORDINGLY. FURTHER
HYDROLOGICAL DISCUSSION CAN BE FOUND LATER IN THE DISCUSSION DOWN
BELOW. AS FOR THE DENSE FOG...WILL MONITOR OVERNIGHT AND UPDATE
HEADLINES CLOSER TOWARDS MORNING AS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE
AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR COASTAL FLOODING THREATS...PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOODING
PORTION OF THE AFD OUTLINING THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR SPLASHOVER
ALONG THE S-COAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE SHARP COLD FRONT...
MAINLY FOR THE EVENING PERIOD...SO WILL TABLE THE OUTCOMES BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR THE TUESDAY NIGHT DISCUSSION.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHALLOW COLD AIR
POURS IN VIA WESTERLY WINDS BENEATH SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AIR ALOFT.

WILL SEE THE BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZE UP TO H9 WITH COLD-AIR
ADVECTION ALLOWING FOR THE MIX-DOWN OF FASTER MOMENTUM AND W-WIND
GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AT THE SURFACE. WIND ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE
CONSIDERED...BUT AGAIN FEEL SUCH WINDS WILL BE BRIEF AND CAN BE
HANDLED WITH SHORT-FUSED PRODUCTS.

STRONG ASCENT PER RRQ AND MAIN SHORT-WAVE THROUGH THE NEGATIVELY
TILTING TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT
WITHIN THE SHALLOW COLD AIR. BUT THIS SHOULD BE BRIEF WITH AN INFLUX
OF DRIER AIR TO THE REAR /POSSIBLY ALSO THE DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT
OFF THE BERKSHIRES WILL PRESENT LIMITATIONS/. WINTRY PRECIP TYPES
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NW MA INTO S NH. ACCUMULATIONS IF
ANY WILL BE JUST AROUND A TRACE. DO NOT BELIEVE WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES ARE NECESSARY.

BIGGER CONCERN IS ON THE FLASH FREEZE POTENTIAL WITH THE IMMEDIATE
INFLUX OF COLDER AIR. COULD SEE POTENTIAL BLACK-ICE IMPACTS FOR THE
WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE. LOWS FALLING AROUND THE UPPER-20S TO
LOW-30S BY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER BUT MUCH COOLER WED AND THU
* TEMPERATURES START TO MODERATE FRI INTO THE WEEKEND
* UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND

14/12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM.  OVER THE WEEKEND...PARTICULARLY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE START TO BE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF.  THESE WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME EFFECT ON THE
TIMING OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...BUT THESE DIFFERENCES WILL BE
RESOLVED OVER TIME.  ACROSS THE BOARD...MOST OF THE MODELS AS WELL
AS THE ENSEMBLES FOCUS ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND
UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVER THE WEEKEND.  EXPECT THIS IS THE
LIKELIER SOLUTION GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT...BUT THERE ARE A FEW
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS/MODEL RUNS THAT ARE FOCUSING MORE ON THE NORTHERN
STREAM LOW.  SO THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT PATTERN FOR
NEXT WEEKEND...AS THERE SHOULD AT THIS TIME RANGE.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT THESE SHOULD COME TO AN
END EARLY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE WEATHER SHOULD BE QUIET ASIDE FROM THESE SHOWERS...BUT CHILLY
WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OFF THE OCEAN RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MID APRIL.

FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES START TO MODERATE FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  HOWEVER
WITH NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS CONTINUING...EXPECT COASTAL
LOCATIONS TO REMAIN CHILLY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS STATED ABOVE...THIS IS LIKELY TO BE A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AS A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CAROLINAS TO NEAR THE 40/70 BENCHMARK.  THE
FIRST IS FORECAST TO MOVE WELL OUTSIDE OF THE BENCHMARK...LIKELY
BRINGING SHOWERS AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE EASTERN
PART OF THE REGION SATURDAY.  THE SECOND MOVES CLOSER TO THE
BENCHMARK...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE REGION MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES MODERATE ENOUGH THROUGH THIS PERIOD
THAT THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS RAIN.  THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS...AND THUS
THE RAINFALL THAT WILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

00Z UPDATE...

S WINDS ANTICIPATED TO DROP OFF SLIGHTLY INCREASING LLWS THREATS
AS WINDS 2 KFT AGL OVERNIGHT WILL BE AROUND 50 KTS.

IN ADDITION TO LLWS...MAIN CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS
THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CIGS AROUND 1-2 KFT WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF
1/2SM FG ALONG THE S-SHORELINE TERMINALS. WITH ANY DENSE FOG WILL
LIKELY SOUP-OUT TO VV002.

COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING EXITING OFFSHORE SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
A DISTINCT BAND OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED TSRA /BETTER CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS CT-RIVER VALLEY/.
SUCH STRONGER ACTIVITY COULD YIELD AN ISOLATED WIND THREAT WITH S
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS. OTHERWISE ON AVERAGE 15 TO 25 KT
SUSTAINED WINDS WITH 25 TO 35 KT GUSTS. EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR-IFR
CIGS AND VSBYS.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...WINDS BACK WEST AS TEMPS DROP CONSIDERABLY. WILL
SEE W-WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS AS CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVE TO
VFR. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW/SLEET MIX TO THE REAR OF THE
COLD FRONT...BUT BEST CHANCES OVER NW MA AND S NH.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY TO VFR MOST LOCATIONS.
TYPICALLY ON NE WINDS LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MA
INCLUDING KBOS. IFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST ARE THEN
CLIMATOLOGICALLY LIKELY FOR BOTH DAYS.  HOWEVER...MODELS ARE VERY
DRY ON WEDNESDAY...SO THIS MAY NOT OCCUR.  MOISTURE RETURNS THURSDAY
THOUGH.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW CLOUDS/IFR CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH CONTINUED NE FLOW.  OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY PARTICULARLY
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA IN RAIN/FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

GALE WARNINGS FOR STRONG S WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT FOR TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WINDS BACK OUT OF THE WEST WITH PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT REMAINING IN EXCESS OF GALE-FORCE. WAVE HEIGHTS UP
TO 10 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER WATERS.

ALSO WORTHY OF NOTE...AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EXPECT WIDESPREAD
RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

AND ALSO BEGINNING TONIGHT...THERE IS ALSO A GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR SEEING DENSE FOG ESP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH VISIBILITIES
DOWN TO A HALF-MILE OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTHWESTERLY GALES SLACKEN AS COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE MARITIMES.  WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.  SEAS
DIMINISH SLOWLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND BUT WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS
REMAIN CLOSE TO OR ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST ON THE OUTER WATERS.

SATURDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS
MAY INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS.
MODERATE PROBABILITY OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BEING NEEDED. IN
ADDITION...VISIBILITIES MAY BE LIMITED IN RAIN/FOG.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY.
THIS IS DUE TO THE EXPECTATION THAT SWOLLEN RIVER CONDITIONS AS A
RESULT OF UPSTREAM SNOWMELT COMBINING WITH THE BASIN AVERAGE 1.5
INCHES OF RAINFALL ANTICIPATED TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF MAINSTEM RIVERS AND ADJOINING CREEKS
AND STREAMS. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING THROUGHOUT THE WATCH AREA.

FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER
FOR HARTFORD AND MIDDLE HADDAM. THOSE WITH INTERESTS ALONG LOWER
REACHES OF CT RIVER SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST FORECASTS
AND CURRENT WATER LEVELS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH WILL PRODUCE A STORM-SURGE
OF 1 TO 2 FEET ALONG THE SOUTH-COAST PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. COMBINED WITH TUESDAY
EVENINGS HIGH TIDE...AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SPLASHOVER
AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS AND ROADWAYS ALONG
THE SOUTH-COAST.

THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT THE
ISSUANCE OF A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT / ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH-
COAST. WILL EVALUATE WITH LATER FORECASTS AND HIGHLIGHT IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ002-003.
MA...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     MAZ002>004-008>011-026.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     NHZ011-012-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ232-233-235-237-250-254>256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ230-231-234-236-
     251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...RLG/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 142024
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
424 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING WITH IT A SOAKING RAIN FOR
TUESDAY EXITING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. DRIER AND MUCH
COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING BY FRIDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

INTO THIS EVENING...

BLUSTERY S-WINDS CONTINUE BUT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TOWARDS
EVENING AS TEMPERATURES COOL AND BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING LESSENS.
WILL BE MONITORING THE BANDS LOW CLOUDS STREAMING NORTH AROUND
THE HIGH AS SEEN PER VISIBLE SATELLITE.

TONIGHT...

INCREASING S WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BLUSTERY AT
THE SURFACE BUT BELOW WIND-ADV CRITERIA WITH 25 TO 30 MPH GUSTS AT
MOST. WILL SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG/DRIZZLE AS MOISTURE
CONVERGES ALONG THE NOSE OF A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL-JET POOLING
BENEATH A DRY-AIR INVERSION ALOFT AND UNDERGOING WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT MAINLY ALONG THE S-COAST. BULK OF THE RAIN STAYS WEST ALONG
WITH THE COLD FRONT.

BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER OUTCOMES THIS EVENING WILL BE
DENSE FOG OR LOW CLOUDS. WITH HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR TRANSPOSED OVER
COLDER OCEAN WATERS WOULD EXPECT DENSE FOG ALONG THE S-COAST...BUT
WITH STRONG S WINDS...MECHANICAL MIXING MAY RESULT IN VERY LOW
STRATUS. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ISSUANCE OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
NOW...BUT HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TUESDAY...

COLD FRONT SURGES INTO NEW ENGLAND. ANTICIPATING A DISTINCT BAND OF
RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

CONTINUED STRONG S LOW-LEVEL-JET AHEAD OF THE FRONT UP TO 80 MPH AT
H925. THOUGH BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING IS LIMITED BY WARMER AIR ALOFT...
AM CONCERNED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD LEND
TO PRECIP-DRAG OF FASTER WINDS TO THE SURFACE. CONSIDERING FORECAST
WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR-VECTORS ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT...
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD CONTAIN AN ISOLATED WIND THREAT.
HAVE APPENDED THE CONVECTIVE THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS TO THE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

TIGHTENING PRES-GRADIENT AND LIMITED BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING SHOULD
ALLOW FOR S WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING WIND ADV
CRITERIA. MUCH LIKE TODAY...GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH WILL BE ISOLATED.
FEEL THE WIND ISSUES CAN BE HANDLED BY SHORT-FUSED PRODUCTS ESP WITH
THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS. WILL NOT ISSUE A WIND ADV WITH THIS
FORECAST.

S-FETCH WILL ADVECT PWATS OF AROUND 1.5-INCHES N ALONG WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN EXCESS OF 50 DEGREES. TWO AREAS OF CONCERN:
POTENTIAL URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AND RIVER/SMALL-STREAM FLOODING ESP
FOR THE CT-RIVER VALLEY...AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG
ALONG THE S-COAST WITH HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR OVER- RIDING A COLDER
OCEAN.

WILL HOIST A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE CT-VALLEY ACCORDINGLY. FURTHER
HYDROLOGICAL DISCUSSION CAN BE FOUND LATER IN THE DISCUSSION DOWN
BELOW. AS FOR THE DENSE FOG...WILL MONITOR OVERNIGHT AND UPDATE
HEADLINES CLOSER TOWARDS MORNING AS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE
AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR COASTAL FLOODING THREATS...PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOODING
PORTION OF THE AFD OUTLINING THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR SPLASHOVER
ALONG THE S-COAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE SHARP COLD FRONT...
MAINLY FOR THE EVENING PERIOD...SO WILL TABLE THE OUTCOMES BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR THE TUESDAY NIGHT DISCUSSION.

TUESDAY NIGHT...

COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHALLOW COLD AIR
POURS IN VIA WESTERLY WINDS BENEATH SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AIR ALOFT.

WILL SEE THE BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZE UP TO H9 WITH COLD-AIR
ADVECTION ALLOWING FOR THE MIX-DOWN OF FASTER MOMENTUM AND W-WIND
GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AT THE SURFACE. WIND ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE
CONSIDERED...BUT AGAIN FEEL SUCH WINDS WILL BE BRIEF AND CAN BE
HANDLED WITH SHORT-FUSED PRODUCTS.

STRONG ASCENT PER RRQ AND MAIN SHORT-WAVE THROUGH THE NEGATIVELY
TILTING TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT
WITHIN THE SHALLOW COLD AIR. BUT THIS SHOULD BE BRIEF WITH AN INFLUX
OF DRIER AIR TO THE REAR /POSSIBLY ALSO THE DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT
OFF THE BERKSHIRES WILL PRESENT LIMITATIONS/. WINTRY PRECIP TYPES
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NW MA INTO S NH. ACCUMULATIONS IF
ANY WILL BE JUST AROUND A TRACE. DO NOT BELIEVE WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES ARE NECESSARY.

BIGGER CONCERN IS ON THE FLASH FREEZE POTENTIAL WITH THE IMMEDIATE
INFLUX OF COLDER AIR. COULD SEE POTENTIAL BLACK-ICE IMPACTS FOR THE
WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE. LOWS FALLING AROUND THE UPPER-20S TO
LOW-30S BY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER BUT MUCH COOLER WED AND THU
* TEMPERATURES START TO MODERATE FRI INTO THE WEEKEND
* UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND

14/12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM.  OVER THE WEEKEND...PARTICULARLY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE START TO BE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF.  THESE WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME EFFECT ON THE
TIMING OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...BUT THESE DIFFERENCES WILL BE
RESOLVED OVER TIME.  ACROSS THE BOARD...MOST OF THE MODELS AS WELL
AS THE ENSEMBLES FOCUS ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND
UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVER THE WEEKEND.  EXPECT THIS IS THE
LIKELIER SOLUTION GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT...BUT THERE ARE A FEW
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS/MODEL RUNS THAT ARE FOCUSING MORE ON THE NORTHERN
STREAM LOW.  SO THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT PATTERN FOR
NEXT WEEKEND...AS THERE SHOULD AT THIS TIME RANGE.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT THESE SHOULD COME TO AN
END EARLY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE WEATHER SHOULD BE QUIET ASIDE FROM THESE SHOWERS...BUT CHILLY
WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OFF THE OCEAN RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MID APRIL.

FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES START TO MODERATE FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  HOWEVER
WITH NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS CONTINUING...EXPECT COASTAL
LOCATIONS TO REMAIN CHILLY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS STATED ABOVE...THIS IS LIKELY TO BE A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AS A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CAROLINAS TO NEAR THE 40/70 BENCHMARK.  THE
FIRST IS FORECAST TO MOVE WELL OUTSIDE OF THE BENCHMARK...LIKELY
BRINGING SHOWERS AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE EASTERN
PART OF THE REGION SATURDAY.  THE SECOND MOVES CLOSER TO THE
BENCHMARK...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE REGION MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES MODERATE ENOUGH THROUGH THIS PERIOD
THAT THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS RAIN.  THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS...AND THUS
THE RAINFALL THAT WILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

18Z UPDATE...

STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS E/SE NEW ENGLAND SUSTAINED AROUND 25 KTS
WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS WITH ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS INTO THE
EVENING. WINDS ANTICIPATED TO DROP OFF SLIGHTLY INCREASING LLWS
THREATS AS WINDS 2 KFT AGL OVERNIGHT WILL BE AROUND 50 KTS.

IN ADDITION TO LLWS...MAIN CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS
THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CIGS AROUND 1-2 KFT WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF
1/2SM FG ALONG THE S-SHORELINE TERMINALS. WITH ANY DENSE FOG WILL
LIKELY SOUP-OUT TO VV002.

COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING EXITING OFFSHORE SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
A DISTINCT BAND OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED TSRA /BETTER CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS CT-RIVER VALLEY/.
SUCH STRONGER ACTIVITY COULD YIELD AN ISOLATED WIND THREAT WITH S
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS. OTHERWISE ON AVERAGE 15 TO 25 KT
SUSTAINED WINDS WITH 25 TO 35 KT GUSTS. EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR-IFR
CIGS AND VSBYS.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...WINDS BACK WEST AS TEMPS DROP CONSIDERABLY. WILL
SEE W-WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS AS CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVE TO
VFR. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW/SLEET MIX TO THE REAR OF THE
COLD FRONT...BUT BEST CHANCES OVER NW MA AND S NH.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY TO VFR MOST LOCATIONS.
TYPICALLY ON NE WINDS LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MA
INCLUDING KBOS. IFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST ARE THEN
CLIMATOLOGICALLY LIKELY FOR BOTH DAYS.  HOWEVER...MODELS ARE VERY
DRY ON WEDNESDAY...SO THIS MAY NOT OCCUR.  MOISTURE RETURNS THURSDAY
THOUGH.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW CLOUDS/IFR CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH CONTINUED NE FLOW.  OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY PARTICULARLY
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA IN RAIN/FOG.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

GALE WARNINGS FOR STRONG S WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT FOR TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WINDS BACK OUT OF THE WEST WITH PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT REMAINING IN EXCESS OF GALE-FORCE. WAVE HEIGHTS UP
TO 10 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER WATERS.

ALSO WORTHY OF NOTE...AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EXPECT WIDESPREAD
RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

AND ALSO BEGINNING TONIGHT...THERE IS ALSO A GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR SEEING DENSE FOG ESP ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH VISIBILITIES
DOWN TO A HALF-MILE OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTHWESTERLY GALES SLACKEN AS COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE MARITIMES.  WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.  SEAS
DIMINISH SLOWLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND BUT WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS
REMAIN CLOSE TO OR ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST ON THE OUTER WATERS.

SATURDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS
MAY INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS.
MODERATE PROBABILITY OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BEING NEEDED. IN
ADDITION...VISIBILITIES MAY BE LIMITED IN RAIN/FOG.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY.
THIS IS DUE TO THE EXPECTATION THAT SWOLLEN RIVER CONDITIONS AS A
RESULT OF UPSTREAM SNOWMELT COMBINING WITH THE BASIN AVERAGE 1.5
INCHES OF RAINFALL ANTICIPATED TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF MAINSTEM RIVERS AND ADJOINING CREEKS
AND STREAMS. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING THROUGHOUT THE WATCH AREA.

FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER
FOR HARTFORD AND MIDDLE HADDAM. THOSE WITH INTERESTS ALONG LOWER
REACHES OF CT RIVER SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST FORECASTS
AND CURRENT WATER LEVELS.


&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH WILL PRODUCE A STORM-SURGE
OF 1 TO 2 FEET ALONG THE SOUTH-COAST PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. COMBINED WITH TUESDAY
EVENINGS HIGH TIDE...AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SPLASHOVER
AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS AND ROADWAYS ALONG
THE SOUTH-COAST.

THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT THE
ISSUANCE OF A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT / ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH-
COAST. WILL EVALUATE WITH LATER FORECASTS AND HIGHLIGHT IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ002-003.
MA...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     MAZ002>004-008>011-026.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     NHZ011-012-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ232-233-235-237-250-254>256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ230-231-234-236-
     251.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...RLG/SIPPRELL
HYDROLOGY...SIPPRELL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SIPPRELL




000
FXUS61 KBOX 141929
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
329 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
TUESDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN
TUESDAY BEFORE EXITING THE REGION BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DRIER
AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BY FRIDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
130 PM UPDATE...

BLUSTERY S-WINDS. NEAR TO EXCEEDING WIND ADV CRITERIA WIND GUSTS
OF 45 MPH MAINLY BEING OBSERVED OVER E/SE NEW ENGLAND. WILL HOLD
WITH THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT CONCERNING THE ISOLATED THREAT
AS A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS POINT WOULD LIKELY ADD LITTLE VALUE.
GALE WARNINGS ALONG THE EASTERN NEAR-SHORE WATERS INCLUDING
BUZZARDS AND NARRAGANSETT BAY WAS A GOOD CALL.

TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS REMAIN ON TRACK. HAVE UPDATED CLOUD
COVER AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO SURGE AND ISENTROPICALLY LIFT ROUND
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN USA SHIFTS OFFSHORE AS AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SLOW THE FORWARD
PROGRESS OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS WELL AS THE
SUPPORTING JET DYNAMICS. IT WILL ALSO DRAW MORE HUMIDITY NORTH
INTO NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS OVER NY AND
PA...AND A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS REACHING THE BERKSHIRE EAST
SLOPES AND THE CT VALLEY TOWARD MORNING. OTHER CONCERN WILL BE
FOG/DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT. BEST CHANCE WILL AGAIN BE ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST AND ISLANDS AS THE HUMID AIR MOVES OVER THE COLDER WATERS
OFF OUR SOUTH COAST.

TUESDAY...
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
DURING TUESDAY. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING GULF AND ATLANTIC
MOISTURE OVER OUR AREA. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A DEEP COLUMN OF
MOISTURE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST AT 1.5 INCHES
WHICH IS 2-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL FOR APRIL. STABILITY VALUES ARE
MOSTLY UNFAVORABLE...BUT TOTALS ARE 45-49 SO THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. OVERALL...A WET DAY. AS WE WILL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WE FAVORED CONVECTIVE WORDING /SHOWERS/. THE LOW LEVEL
JET WILL INCREASE TO 60-70 KNOTS WHICH WILL FAVOR SOUTHERLY SURFACE
GUSTS OF 35-40 KNOTS AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE MORE. A WIND ADVISORY
MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* QUIET WEATHER BUT MUCH COOLER WED AND THU
* TEMPERATURES START TO MODERATE FRI INTO THE WEEKEND
* UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND

14/12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM.  OVER THE WEEKEND...PARTICULARLY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE START TO BE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF.  THESE WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME EFFECT ON THE
TIMING OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...BUT THESE DIFFERENCES WILL BE
RESOLVED OVER TIME.  ACROSS THE BOARD...MOST OF THE MODELS AS WELL
AS THE ENSEMBLES FOCUS ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND
UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVER THE WEEKEND.  EXPECT THIS IS THE
LIKELIER SOLUTION GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT...BUT THERE ARE A FEW
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS/MODEL RUNS THAT ARE FOCUSING MORE ON THE NORTHERN
STREAM LOW.  SO THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT PATTERN FOR
NEXT WEEKEND...AS THERE SHOULD AT THIS TIME RANGE.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT THESE SHOULD COME TO AN
END EARLY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE WEATHER SHOULD BE QUIET ASIDE FROM THESE SHOWERS...BUT CHILLY
WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OFF THE OCEAN RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MID APRIL.

FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES START TO MODERATE FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  HOWEVER
WITH NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS CONTINUING...EXPECT COASTAL
LOCATIONS TO REMAIN CHILLY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS STATED ABOVE...THIS IS LIKELY TO BE A
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AS A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CAROLINAS TO NEAR THE 40/70 BENCHMARK.  THE
FIRST IS FORECAST TO MOVE WELL OUTSIDE OF THE BENCHMARK...LIKELY
BRINGING SHOWERS AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE EASTERN
PART OF THE REGION SATURDAY.  THE SECOND MOVES CLOSER TO THE
BENCHMARK...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE REGION MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES MODERATE ENOUGH THROUGH THIS PERIOD
THAT THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS RAIN.  THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS...AND THUS
THE RAINFALL THAT WILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

18Z UPDATE...

STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS E/SE NEW ENGLAND SUSTAINED AROUND 25 KTS
WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS WITH ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS INTO THE
EVENING. WINDS ANTICIPATED TO DROP OFF SLIGHTLY INCREASING LLWS
THREATS AS WINDS 2 KFT AGL OVERNIGHT WILL BE AROUND 50 KTS.

IN ADDITION TO LLWS...MAIN CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS
THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CIGS AROUND 1-2 KFT WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF
1/2SM FG ALONG THE S-SHORELINE TERMINALS. WITH ANY DENSE FOG WILL
LIKELY SOUP-OUT TO VV002.

COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING EXITING OFFSHORE SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
A DISTINCT BAND OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED TSRA /BETTER CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS CT-RIVER VALLEY/.
SUCH STRONGER ACTIVITY COULD YIELD AN ISOLATED WIND THREAT WITH S
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS. OTHERWISE ON AVERAGE 15 TO 25 KT
SUSTAINED WINDS WITH 25 TO 35 KT GUSTS. EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR-IFR
CIGS AND VSBYS.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...WINDS BACK WEST AS TEMPS DROP CONSIDERABLY. WILL
SEE W-WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS AS CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVE TO
VFR. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW/SLEET MIX TO THE REAR OF THE
COLD FRONT...BUT BEST CHANCES OVER NW MA AND S NH.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY TO VFR MOST LOCATIONS.
TYPICALLY ON NE WINDS LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MA
INCLUDING KBOS. IFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST ARE THEN
CLIMATOLOGICALLY LIKELY FOR BOTH DAYS.  HOWEVER...MODELS ARE VERY
DRY ON WEDNESDAY...SO THIS MAY NOT OCCUR.  MOISTURE RETURNS THURSDAY
THOUGH.

FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  LOW CLOUDS/IFR CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH CONTINUED NE FLOW.  OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.  MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY PARTICULARLY
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA IN RAIN/FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

1030 AM UPDATE...

GALES FOR THE EASTERN NEAR-SHORE WATERS DUE TO GUSTY SW WINDS OFF
THE LAND...ALSO FOR BUZZARDS BAY AND NARRAGANSETT BAY WHERE WINDS
OUT OF THE SOUTH FUNNEL NORTH AND INCREASE. GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35
KTS POSSIBLE. WITHIN INNER-HARBORS AND SOUNDS...WAVES AROUND 2 TO
4 FEET POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 5 FEET.

TONIGHT...

FOG AND LOW VSBYS AGAIN POSSIBLE. STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
WITH 25-30 KNOT GUSTS. SEAS CONTINUE AT 5-8 FEET ON THE EXPOSED
WATERS.

TUESDAY...

RAIN SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS...SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER/LIGHTNING. POOR VSBYS IN RAIN AND FOG. WINDS
OVERHEAD WILL INCREASE WITH SPEEDS OF 60-70 KNOTS AT 2000
FEET...AND SOME OF THIS WILL REACH THE SURFACE IN GUSTS. THESE
WINDS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH GALE FORCE. A GALE WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTHWESTERLY GALES SLACKEN AS COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE MARITIMES.  WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.  SEAS
DIMINISH SLOWLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND BUT WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS
REMAIN CLOSE TO OR ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST ON THE OUTER WATERS.

SATURDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS
MAY INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS.
MODERATE PROBABILITY OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BEING NEEDED. IN
ADDITION...VISIBILITIES MAY BE LIMITED IN RAIN/FOG.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WATER BEING ROUTED DOWNSTREAM FROM THE UPPER CONNECTICUT RIVER
BASIN HAS RESULTED IN MINOR FLOODING AT BOTH HARTFORD AND MIDDLE
HADDAM CT. FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE CT RIVER AT THESE
LOCATIONS. THOSE WITH INTERESTS ALONG LOWER REACHES OF CT RIVER
SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AND CURRENT WATER
LEVELS.

HEAVY DOWNPOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT MAY PRODUCE 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL. THIS WILL BE
A CONCERN FOR PRODUCING URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. IT WILL ALSO
RAISE RIVER LEVELS JUST AS SNOWMELT IS WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WITH AN EYE TOWARD EVENTUALLY ISSUING A
FLOOD WATCH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
     FOR ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ232-233-235-
     237-250-254>256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-231-234-
     236-251.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...RLG/SIPPRELL
MARINE...WTB/RLG
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KBOX 141739
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
139 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
TUESDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN
TUESDAY BEFORE EXITING THE REGION BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DRIER
AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

130 PM UPDATE...

BLUSTERY S-WINDS. NEAR TO EXCEEDING WIND ADV CRITERIA WIND GUSTS
OF 45 MPH MAINLY BEING OBSERVED OVER E/SE NEW ENGLAND. WILL HOLD
WITH THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT CONCERNING THE ISOLATED THREAT
AS A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS POINT WOULD LIKELY ADD LITTLE VALUE.
GALE WARNINGS ALONG THE EASTERN NEAR-SHORE WATERS INCLUDING
BUZZARDS AND NARRAGANSETT BAY WAS A GOOD CALL.

TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS REMAIN ON TRACK. HAVE UPDATED CLOUD
COVER AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO SURGE AND ISENTROPICALLY LIFT ROUND
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN USA SHIFTS OFFSHORE AS AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SLOW THE FORWARD
PROGRESS OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS WELL AS THE
SUPPORTING JET DYNAMICS. IT WILL ALSO DRAW MORE HUMIDITY NORTH
INTO NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS OVER NY AND
PA...AND A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS REACHING THE BERKSHIRE EAST
SLOPES AND THE CT VALLEY TOWARD MORNING. OTHER CONCERN WILL BE
FOG/DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT. BEST CHANCE WILL AGAIN BE ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST AND ISLANDS AS THE HUMID AIR MOVES OVER THE COLDER WATERS
OFF OUR SOUTH COAST.

TUESDAY...
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
DURING TUESDAY. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING GULF AND ATLANTIC
MOISTURE OVER OUR AREA. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A DEEP COLUMN OF
MOISTURE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST AT 1.5 INCHES
WHICH IS 2-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL FOR APRIL. STABILITY VALUES ARE
MOSTLY UNFAVORABLE...BUT TOTALS ARE 45-49 SO THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. OVERALL...A WET DAY. AS WE WILL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WE FAVORED CONVECTIVE WORDING /SHOWERS/. THE LOW LEVEL
JET WILL INCREASE TO 60-70 KNOTS WHICH WILL FAVOR SOUTHERLY SURFACE
GUSTS OF 35-40 KNOTS AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE MORE. A WIND ADVISORY
MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION WED MORNING
* BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK
* MODERATING TEMPS FRIDAY

MODELS AND CONFIDENCE...

OVERALL 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE POTENT
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL EXIT THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WED MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT LEADING TO DRY WEATHER. THE NEXT FEATURE TO
FOCUS ON IS ANOTHER TROUGH ALOFT PROGRESSING ACROSS THE LOWER 48
BY THE END OF THE WEEK. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INDICATING MULTIPLE
UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS FEATURE INCLUDING DISTRIBUTION OF ENERGY
WITHIN THE FLOW AND THE TIMING. HOWEVER AS THIS SYSTEM DIGS INTO
THE CONUS...STRONG RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST OF THE REGION.

INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WET
WEATHER WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND EXIT THE REGION BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP WILL OCCUR BUT BELIEVE ACROSS CT AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE
WILL SEE THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS. OTHERWISE MODERATE CONFIDENCE
THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE ON POTENTIAL WET WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY....

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH HEAVY PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT
AND BE OUT OF THE REGION BY WED MORNING. EXPECT RAINFALL TO BE
HEAVY AT TIMES AS A SOUTHERLY LLJ TRANSPORTS ATLANTIC/GULF
MOISTURE WITH PW NEAR 1.5 INCHES...WHICH IS 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
AWAY...INTO THE REGION. ANTICIPATE THAT THE EVENING COMMUTE WILL
BE IMPACTED THE MOST ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE HEAVY
RAINFALL...LOWER VSBYS AND PONDING ACROSS ROADWAYS. FINALLY THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER COULD DEVELOP ALONG
THE LINE. ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE ON THE WEAKER
SIDE...SHOWALTERS ARE STILL BELOW ZERO INDICATING FOR MORE
ELEVATED CONVECTION. ALSO WITH STRONG 925MB LLJ BETWEEN
50-70KTS...ANY STRONG SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP COULD TAP INTO THESE
STRONG WINDS ALOFT RESULTING IN SOME GUSTY WINDS WITHIN THESE
SHOWERS THAT WOULD GENERALLY LOOK WEAKER. BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE
INSERTED ISOLATED THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST BUT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL GUSTY WINDS.

COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN VERY LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS THE FRONT
PASSES TO THE EAST...WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS EXPECT MIXING
OR A CHANGE SNOW VERY BRIEFLY. VERY LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. BECAUSE OF THIS STRONG CAA MOVING INTO REGION EXPECT A
RAPID DROP IN TEMPERATURES. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A FLASH
FREEZE POTENTIAL BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY...
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY WED MORNING. FOLLOWED BY
STRONG SUBSTANCE AND A BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DIGGING TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS...ALLOWING FOR A STRONG RIDGE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS RIDGE WILL PUSH THE BUILDING HIGH OVER
NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR YIELDING TO EASTERLY FLOW FOR THE
REGION.

OVERALL ANTICIPATE DRY WEATHER WITH WELL BELOW AVG TEMPS FOR WED
AND THURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD AND RAW ALONG THE EAST
COASTLINE AS EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DROP TEMPERATURES WED NIGHT BY SEVERAL
DEGREE BELOW GUIDANCE AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES
CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT. TEMPS WILL FEEL MORE LIKE EARLY MARCH...AND
COULD MAKE A RUN AT RECORDS. ANY VEGETATION THAT DECIDED TO START
GROWING THIS PAST WEEK...DUE TO THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...WILL
NEED TO BE COVERED AS TEMPS WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING. NO PLANS FOR
FREEZE HEADLINES AS GROWING SEASON DOES NOT START UNTIL APRIL
20TH.

FRIDAY TEMPS WILL BE MODERATING DUE TO BUILDING THERMAL RIDGE TRYING
TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER EXPECT TEMPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
MASS COASTLINE TO STILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE. IN FACT IT DOESN`T
LOOK LIKE THE CAPE OR EVEN BOSTON WILL GET ABOVE 50 UNTIL SAT OR
MAYBE SUNDAY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THERE ENSEMBLES ARE INDICATING A WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY
RESULTING IN A SYSTEM MOVING TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. THIS COULD
RESULT IN A SOGGY AND COOLER WEEKEND. HOWEVER THIS FAR OUT...HAVE
LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

18Z UPDATE...

STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS E/SE NEW ENGLAND SUSTAINED AROUND 25 KTS
WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS WITH ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS INTO THE
EVENING. WINDS ANTICIPATED TO DROP OFF SLIGHTLY INCREASING LLWS
THREATS AS WINDS 2 KFT AGL OVERNIGHT WILL BE AROUND 50 KTS.

IN ADDITION TO LLWS...MAIN CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS
THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CIGS AROUND 1-2 KFT WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF
1/2SM FG ALONG THE S-SHORELINE TERMINALS. WITH ANY DENSE FOG WILL
LIKELY SOUP-OUT TO VV002.

COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING EXITING OFFSHORE SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
A DISTINCT BAND OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED TSRA /BETTER CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS CT-RIVER VALLEY/.
SUCH STRONGER ACTIVITY COULD YIELD AN ISOLATED WIND THREAT WITH S
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS. OTHERWISE ON AVERAGE 15 TO 25 KT
SUSTAINED WINDS WITH 25 TO 35 KT GUSTS. EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR-IFR
CIGS AND VSBYS.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...WINDS BACK WEST AS TEMPS DROP CONSIDERABLY. WILL
SEE W-WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS AS CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVE TO
VFR. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW/SLEET MIX TO THE REAR OF THE
COLD FRONT...BUT BEST CHANCES OVER NW MA AND S NH.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

1030 AM UPDATE...

GALES FOR THE EASTERN NEAR-SHORE WATERS DUE TO GUSTY SW WINDS OFF
THE LAND...ALSO FOR BUZZARDS BAY AND NARRAGANSETT BAY WHERE WINDS
OUT OF THE SOUTH FUNNEL NORTH AND INCREASE. GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35
KTS POSSIBLE. WITHIN INNER-HARBORS AND SOUNDS...WAVES AROUND 2 TO
4 FEET POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 5 FEET.

TONIGHT...

FOG AND LOW VSBYS AGAIN POSSIBLE. STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
WITH 25-30 KNOT GUSTS. SEAS CONTINUE AT 5-8 FEET ON THE EXPOSED
WATERS.

TUESDAY...

RAIN SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS...SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER/LIGHTNING. POOR VSBYS IN RAIN AND FOG. WINDS
OVERHEAD WILL INCREASE WITH SPEEDS OF 60-70 KNOTS AT 2000
FEET...AND SOME OF THIS WILL REACH THE SURFACE IN GUSTS. THESE
WINDS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH GALE FORCE. A GALE WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT DUE TO STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR GALES TUESDAY
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. SEAS
WILL BUILD FURTHER IN RESPONSE. WINDS START TO RELAX LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT SEAS WILL TAKE QUITE A BIT LONGER.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BELOW 25 KT. ROUGH
SEAS LINGER ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

WATER BEING ROUTED DOWNSTREAM FROM THE UPPER CONNECTICUT RIVER
BASIN HAS RESULTED IN MINOR FLOODING AT BOTH HARTFORD AND MIDDLE
HADDAM CT. FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE CT RIVER AT THESE
LOCATIONS. THOSE WITH INTERESTS ALONG LOWER REACHES OF CT RIVER
SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AND CURRENT WATER
LEVELS.

HEAVY DOWNPOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT MAY PRODUCE 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL. THIS WILL BE
A CONCERN FOR PRODUCING URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. IT WILL ALSO
RAISE RIVER LEVELS JUST AS SNOWMELT IS WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WITH AN EYE TOWARD EVENTUALLY ISSUING A
FLOOD WATCH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
     FOR ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ232-233-235-
     237-250-254>256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-231-234-
     236-251.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
HYDROLOGY...WFO BOX STAFF




000
FXUS61 KBOX 141424
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1024 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
TUESDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN
TUESDAY BEFORE EXITING THE REGION BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DRIER
AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1030 AM UPDATE...

SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. WARMING CONSIDERABLY. WHILE INTERIOR TEMPS
ARE ON TRACK...GREATER DIFFICULTY ALONG THE NEAR-SHORE WITH
NEIGHBORING COLDER WATERS. THIS SUBSEQUENTLY IMPACTS POTENTIAL
BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING AND MIX-DOWN OF FASTER MOMENTUM TO THE
SURFACE.

HAVE INCREASED SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 45 MPH. WITH THE HELP
OF FELLOW FORECASTERS...HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR THE THREAT OF WIND GUSTS
EXCEEDING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. HAVE ALSO ISSUED GALE WARNINGS
ALONG THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS WHERE WIND FUNNELS OR HAS A TRAJECTORY
OFF THE INTERIOR.

HIGHS TO NEAR 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH. LOW CLOUDS ALONG
THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WATERS WILL LIKELY BE AN ISSUE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY BENEATH THE DRY-AIR INVERSION PER 12Z SOUNDINGS OUT OF CHATHAM
AND UPTON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN USA SHIFTS OFFSHORE AS AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SLOW THE FORWARD
PROGRESS OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS WELL AS THE
SUPPORTING JET DYNAMICS. IT WILL ALSO DRAW MORE HUMIDITY NORTH
INTO NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS OVER NY AND
PA...AND A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS REACHING THE BERKSHIRE EAST
SLOPES AND THE CT VALLEY TOWARD MORNING. OTHER CONCERN WILL BE
FOG/DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT. BEST CHANCE WILL AGAIN BE ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST AND ISLANDS AS THE HUMID AIR MOVES OVER THE COLDER WATERS
OFF OUR SOUTH COAST.

TUESDAY...
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
DURING TUESDAY. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING GULF AND ATLANTIC
MOISTURE OVER OUR AREA. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A DEEP COLUMN OF
MOISTURE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST AT 1.5 INCHES
WHICH IS 2-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL FOR APRIL. STABILITY VALUES ARE
MOSTLY UNFAVORABLE...BUT TOTALS ARE 45-49 SO THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. OVERALL...A WET DAY. AS WE WILL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WE FAVORED CONVECTIVE WORDING /SHOWERS/. THE LOW LEVEL
JET WILL INCREASE TO 60-70 KNOTS WHICH WILL FAVOR SOUTHERLY SURFACE
GUSTS OF 35-40 KNOTS AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE MORE. A WIND ADVISORY
MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION WED MORNING
* BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK
* MODERATING TEMPS FRIDAY

MODELS AND CONFIDENCE...

OVERALL 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE POTENT
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL EXIT THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WED MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT LEADING TO DRY WEATHER. THE NEXT FEATURE TO
FOCUS ON IS ANOTHER TROUGH ALOFT PROGRESSING ACROSS THE LOWER 48
BY THE END OF THE WEEK. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INDICATING MULTIPLE
UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS FEATURE INCLUDING DISTRIBUTION OF ENERGY
WITHIN THE FLOW AND THE TIMING. HOWEVER AS THIS SYSTEM DIGS INTO
THE CONUS...STRONG RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST OF THE REGION.

INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WET
WEATHER WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND EXIT THE REGION BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP WILL OCCUR BUT BELIEVE ACROSS CT AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE
WILL SEE THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS. OTHERWISE MODERATE CONFIDENCE
THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE ON POTENTIAL WET WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

DETAILS...

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY....

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH HEAVY PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT
AND BE OUT OF THE REGION BY WED MORNING. EXPECT RAINFALL TO BE
HEAVY AT TIMES AS A SOUTHERLY LLJ TRANSPORTS ATLANTIC/GULF
MOISTURE WITH PW NEAR 1.5 INCHES...WHICH IS 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
AWAY...INTO THE REGION. ANTICIPATE THAT THE EVENING COMMUTE WILL
BE IMPACTED THE MOST ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE HEAVY
RAINFALL...LOWER VSBYS AND PONDING ACROSS ROADWAYS. FINALLY THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER COULD DEVELOP ALONG
THE LINE. ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE ON THE WEAKER
SIDE...SHOWALTERS ARE STILL BELOW ZERO INDICATING FOR MORE
ELEVATED CONVECTION. ALSO WITH STRONG 925MB LLJ BETWEEN
50-70KTS...ANY STRONG SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP COULD TAP INTO THESE
STRONG WINDS ALOFT RESULTING IN SOME GUSTY WINDS WITHIN THESE
SHOWERS THAT WOULD GENERALLY LOOK WEAKER. BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE
INSERTED ISOLATED THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST BUT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL GUSTY WINDS.

COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN VERY LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS THE FRONT
PASSES TO THE EAST...WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS EXPECT MIXING
OR A CHANGE SNOW VERY BRIEFLY. VERY LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. BECAUSE OF THIS STRONG CAA MOVING INTO REGION EXPECT A
RAPID DROP IN TEMPERATURES. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A FLASH
FREEZE POTENTIAL BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY...
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY WED MORNING. FOLLOWED BY
STRONG SUBSTANCE AND A BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DIGGING TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS...ALLOWING FOR A STRONG RIDGE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS RIDGE WILL PUSH THE BUILDING HIGH OVER
NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR YIELDING TO EASTERLY FLOW FOR THE
REGION.

OVERALL ANTICIPATE DRY WEATHER WITH WELL BELOW AVG TEMPS FOR WED
AND THURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD AND RAW ALONG THE EAST
COASTLINE AS EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DROP TEMPERATURES WED NIGHT BY SEVERAL
DEGREE BELOW GUIDANCE AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES
CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT. TEMPS WILL FEEL MORE LIKE EARLY MARCH...AND
COULD MAKE A RUN AT RECORDS. ANY VEGETATION THAT DECIDED TO START
GROWING THIS PAST WEEK...DUE TO THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...WILL
NEED TO BE COVERED AS TEMPS WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING. NO PLANS FOR
FREEZE HEADLINES AS GROWING SEASON DOES NOT START UNTIL APRIL
20TH.

FRIDAY TEMPS WILL BE MODERATING DUE TO BUILDING THERMAL RIDGE TRYING
TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER EXPECT TEMPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
MASS COASTLINE TO STILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE. IN FACT IT DOESN`T
LOOK LIKE THE CAPE OR EVEN BOSTON WILL GET ABOVE 50 UNTIL SAT OR
MAYBE SUNDAY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THERE ENSEMBLES ARE INDICATING A WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY
RESULTING IN A SYSTEM MOVING TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. THIS COULD
RESULT IN A SOGGY AND COOLER WEEKEND. HOWEVER THIS FAR OUT...HAVE
LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

1430Z UPDATE...

SW WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE ACROSS
INTERIOR TERMINALS TODAY. WILL SEE MVFR TO LOW-VFR CIGS IMPACT
TERMINALS OVER S/SE NEW ENGLAND. LLWS IS OF CONCERN WITH WINDS 2
KFT AGL NEAR 50 KTS.

THOUGH WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...EXPECTING MVFR TO LOW-VFR CIGS
TO INCREASE IN AREAL EXTENT. LLWS BECOMES OF GREATER CONCERN WITH
WINDS 2 KFT AGL UP TO 60 KTS.

INTO TUESDAY AND ON INTO TUESDAY EVENING...CONDITIONS TAKE A NOSE
DIVE AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE TERMINALS. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS. ISOLATED TSRA. IFR-MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
FOR ROUGHLY A 6-HOUR WINDOW ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONT. STRONG SW
WINDS 20 TO 30 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS. LLWS REMAINS AN ISSUE
WITH 60 KT SW FLOW AT 2 KFT AGL.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

RAIN MAY MIX WITH LIGHT SNOW AND/OR SLEET ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND
A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE TUE NIGHT OR WED MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FROM W-E DURING WED.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

1030 AM UPDATE...

GALES FOR THE EASTERN NEAR-SHORE WATERS DUE TO GUSTY SW WINDS OFF
THE LAND...ALSO FOR BUZZARDS BAY AND NARRAGANSETT BAY WHERE WINDS
OUT OF THE SOUTH FUNNEL NORTH AND INCREASE. GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35
KTS POSSIBLE. WITHIN INNER-HARBORS AND SOUNDS...WAVES AROUND 2 TO
4 FEET POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 5 FEET.

TONIGHT...

FOG AND LOW VSBYS AGAIN POSSIBLE. STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
WITH 25-30 KNOT GUSTS. SEAS CONTINUE AT 5-8 FEET ON THE EXPOSED
WATERS.

TUESDAY...

RAIN SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS...SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER/LIGHTNING. POOR VSBYS IN RAIN AND FOG. WINDS
OVERHEAD WILL INCREASE WITH SPEEDS OF 60-70 KNOTS AT 2000
FEET...AND SOME OF THIS WILL REACH THE SURFACE IN GUSTS. THESE
WINDS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH GALE FORCE. A GALE WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT DUE TO STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR GALES TUESDAY
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. SEAS
WILL BUILD FURTHER IN RESPONSE. WINDS START TO RELAX LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT SEAS WILL TAKE QUITE A BIT LONGER.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BELOW 25 KT. ROUGH
SEAS LINGER ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

WATER BEING ROUTED DOWNSTREAM FROM THE UPPER CONNECTICUT RIVER
BASIN HAS RESULTED IN MINOR FLOODING AT BOTH HARTFORD AND MIDDLE
HADDAM CT. FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE CT RIVER AT THESE
LOCATIONS. THOSE WITH INTERESTS ALONG LOWER REACHES OF CT RIVER
SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AND CURRENT WATER
LEVELS.

HEAVY DOWNPOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT MAY PRODUCE 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL. THIS WILL BE
A CONCERN FOR PRODUCING URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. IT WILL ALSO
RAISE RIVER LEVELS JUST AS SNOWMELT IS WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WITH AN EYE TOWARD EVENTUALLY ISSUING A
FLOOD WATCH.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
     FOR ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ232-233-235-
     237-250-254>256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-231-234-
     236-251.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WTB/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...WTB/DUNTEN/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...WTB/DUNTEN
MARINE...WTB/DUNTEN
HYDROLOGY...WFO BOX STAFF




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